jwsr-v8n3- 444 Kristin Marsh Department of Sociology and Anthropology Mary Washington College kmarsh@mwc.edu http://www.mwc.edu/soan/ journal of world-systems research, viii, 3, fall 2002, 444–450 http://jwsr.ucr.edu issn 1076–156x © 2002 Kristin Marsh Chase-Dunn, Christopher, Susanne Jonas, and Nelson Amaro, eds. 2001. Globalization on the Ground: Postbellum Guatemalan Democracy and Development. Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, Inc. 254 Pages, isbn 0–7425–0867–6 Paper. http://www.rowmanlittlefield.com Jonas, Susanne. 2000. Of Centaurs and Doves: Guatemala’s Peace Process. Boulder: Westview Press. 299 Pages, isbn 0–8133–3467–5 Cloth, isbn 0–8133–3468–3 Paper. http://www.westviewpress.com/ What are the real prospects for lasting peace and greater prosperity in post-war Guatemala? Th is is the central question underlying Susanne Jonas’s Of Centaurs and Doves and Christopher Chase-Dunn, Susanne Jonas, and Nelson Amaro’s Globalization on the Ground. As events continue to unfold for Guatemalans, these scholars tackle the very current issues of democratization, development, justice, and peace in post-war Guatemalan society. Th e cruel irony is that the very urgency with which these issues must be addressed belies any concrete prediction or even refi ned characterization of the existing situation. Post-civil war transitions are never easy or clean, par- ticularly when the outcome refl ects a negotiated compromise between committed adversaries. For Guatemalans, whose 36-year confl ict fi nally came to a close with the signing of the Peace Accords in 1996, the future appears particularly tenuous. Electoral participation remains at a regional low; street violence is widespread; poverty remains high; and constitutional reform has been aborted via a failed referendum. In spite of these setbacks, Guatemalans Review Essay Kristin Marsh Two Steps Forward and One Step Back: Conf lict and Contradiction in Post- War Guatemala http://rowmanlittlefield.com/Catalog/SingleBook.shtml?command=Search&db=^DB/CATALOG.db&eqSKUdata=0742508676 http://www.perseusbooksgroup.com/perseus-cgi-bin/display/0-8133-3468-3 mailto:kmarsh@mwc.edu http://www.mwc.edu/soan/ http://jwsr.ucr.edu/ Kristin Marsh445 Review Essay 446 continue to work toward peaceful stability, popular democratic participation and legitimacy, and economic development. Th e full implementation of peace in Guatemala remains elusive, and it is this very uncertainty that makes the study of this case so crucially important and potentially useful. In Centaurs, Jonas continues her contribution to our understanding of Guatemala, providing an interpretation of the peace process and assessment of the Peace Accords themselves. Th e book is divided into two major sections. First, Jonas traces the background and summary of the confl ict period (Chapter 1); the period leading to negotiations and settlement (Chapter 2); and the various peace accords signed between 1994 and 1996 (Chapter 3). In Chapter 4, Jonas tackles the questions of democracy and social justice; in Chapter 5, she focuses on the changing role of the U.S. Th ese chapters contextual- ize her analysis, but do not quite fi t in the overall logic of the book. In the second major section, Jonas addresses the implementation phase, from 1997 to mid–1999, including broad interpretation of the period as a whole (Chapter 6), as well as focused discussions of the struggles over tax reform (Chapter 7) and constitutional reforms (Chapter 8). In her conclusion, Jonas weighs the successes and failures of the peace process in view of the larger global and comparative context. And in the Epilogue, she reports the results of the 1999 November referendum, considering implications for the peace process. Th e roots of insurgency in Guatemala can be traced directly to the U.S.- sponsored overthrow of the Arbenz government in 1954, ending the democratic nationalist Revolution of 1944. Not unlike conditions elsewhere in Central America, the revolutionary impulse in Guatemala was deeply rooted in class relations following the organization of coff ee production, but furthered by dependent relations with, and interference by, U.S. interests. Th e important dif- ference, however, is the added centrality of race in Guatemala, where the indige- nous population is much larger than in neighboring El Salvador or Nicaragua. In addition, the Guatemalan confl ict is notorious among recent Central American confl icts for both its duration (36 years) and its death toll (over 200,000 civilian casualties). It was also the last to be resolved, following Nicaragua’s 1990 elec- tions and El Salvador’s 1992 settlement. Negotiations began with initial dialogue between the insurgency (URNG) and the government in 1986, continuing through the signing of the fi nal accords in 1996. During formal negotiations, the U.N. served as moderator of the negotiations and via the U.N. verifi cation mission (MINUGUA). Terms of settlement included agreements concerning democratization, human rights, refugee resettlement, historical clarifi cation, socioeconomic reforms, and reforms of the armed forces. Challenging the usefulness of prevailing models of democratization to the Guatemalan experience, Jonas distinguishes between procedural and popular democracy. While contested elections now prevail, political legitimacy is quite low, as evidenced in low electoral participation rates. She also addresses the compatibility of peace and social justice, a question that can be seen as linking the concerns of area specialists and world-systems theorists. In recognizing that socio-economic justice is the common sacrifi ce of compromised insurgencies, Jonas implicitly pinpoints the contradiction of post-war Guatemalan society and the essential contradiction of the role of the international community as mediator and guarantor of peace processes in developing countries. For war- weary Guatemalans, however, the U.N.–brokered peace settlement provided the only hope out of confl ict. In recounting the half-hearted role of the U.S. in the Guatemalan peace process, Jonas tells a familiar story of U.S. intransigence in regional peace making, evident in both Nicaragua and El Salvador. Continuing to display entrenchment in military interests throughout the region, the U.S. is increasingly willing to take a back seat to organized expressions of international interests and norms via the U.N., regional organizations, and international fi nan- cial organizations. If Part I of Centaurs refl ects her optimism at the signing of the peace accords, Jonas admits that Part II reveals her growing discouragement in the 2 1/2 years since settlement. Th e settlement itself departs in important ways from other com- promises in which political democratization has been traded for postponement of the economic goals of the revolutionaries. In Guatemala, the insurgents seem to have won nearly all the issues in principle, but very little in concrete terms of accountability and guaranteed implementation. In principle, all parties agreed to historical clarifi cation, progressive and increased tax liability, and constitutional reforms. In practice, implementation proved diffi cult because none of the details had been worked out prior to settlement. For example, the accord on socioeco- nomic issues established crucial reform principles, particularly an increase in the tax ratio, intended to help underwrite modest social spending targets and imple- mentation of other aspects of the accord. Nevertheless, the government and the Coordinating Committee of Agricultural, Commercial, Industrial, and Financial Associations (CACIF) successfully resisted the very changes to which they had agreed. Further, the problems with tax reform paralleled other socio-economic issues, and Guatemala’s failure to implement adequate taxation, land tenure, social services, and job provision places severe restrictions on the state’s ability to foster programs of sustainable development. Th e story of constitutional reforms has no happier a conclusion. Judicial reform and indigenous rights depended on a legal basis for such changes. By the time Congress passed the constitutional reforms and the package came up for Kristin Marsh447 Review Essay 448 Gert Rosenthal argues for the potential for development in the context of social justice. Rosenthal sets forth the basic premise underlying many of the selections to follow: Th e success of the development project in Guatemala depends on the corresponding implementation of policies for sustainable growth, as well as greater social equity. Th e contributors in Part II tackle the institutional issues facing Guatemala— demilitarization, security, and local vs. centralized governing structures. John Booth (“Global Forces and Regime Change”) places the Guatemalan transition in regional context, assessing the potential for democratic consolidation in terms of the geo-political context and relative strength of the country’s economy and political culture. Public opinion indicators in the 1990s show low levels of com- mitment to democratic processes; nevertheless, in context of Guatemala’s recent and ongoing turmoil, this should be taken as healthy skepticism. Th e long-term trajectory, Booth argues, is likely to favor a consolidated democratic regime. In “Democratization through Peace,” Jonas echoes Booth’s analyses and many of the themes underlying Centaurs, particularly her critique of the democratic transition literature and the peace/justice tension in peace settlements. Likewise, Nelson Amaro (“Decentralization, Local Government, and Citizen Participation”) calls for greater decentralization of political power, increased citizen participation, and the professionalization of local government offi ce. And A. Douglas Kincaid argues that the experience of El Salvador provides reason for optimism regarding the immediate future of civil-military relations in Guatemala, but that the long- term maintenance of public security in both cases depends on the embeddedness of security issues within a larger strategy of sustainable and just development. Edelberto Torres Rivas and Stephen Bunker both emphasize the relation- ship between the state and the economy. Pointing out the contradictory logic of expanding political democracy within neo-liberalism, Torres Rivas argues that the supremacy of the free market assumes a weak state, limiting political partici- pation to the economic elite. Instead, a strong state is needed—one that is free to act independently of private military and economic interests. Stephen Bunker provides a potential test case. Recognizing that sustained development depends on a reversal of patterns of land distribution, labor control, and environmental degradation, Bunker points out that bulk coff ee (produced on larger plantations typical of Guatemalan coff ee production) is experiencing a drop in prices, while the market for premium, higher priced coff ees (better suited to smaller holdings) has expanded considerably. Th ese unique sectoral market opportunities could conceivably allow for reorganization of production that would be politically fea- sible both domestically and internationally. In Part III, Kay B. Warren, José Serech, and Michael Richards and Julia Richards focus on the Guatemalan signature issue of indigenous rights, includ- popular referendum, the populace had grown increasingly disillusioned with the whole process, and the reform package was rejected by a vote of 55 to 45 percent. However, a full 81 of registered voters (only 60 of those eligible to vote are registered) did not participate in the referendum: Th e “no” vote represented 9.4 percent of registered voters. Jonas concludes that institutional structures curtailed realization of the peace settlement’s full potential. What she neglects is the extent to which the Peace Accords themselves structured both limitations and strengths as they refl ected the mix of interests and the proximate balance of power existing between the state, the opposition, international actors, and various civil organizations at the time of negotiations. Compared with the opposition in El Salvador, for example, the URNG was much less a threat to the state and wielded insuffi cient bargain- ing power at the table to give it a suffi cient voice in determining terms of imple- mentation. Th e strength of Centaurs is its contribution to our understanding of the dif- fi culties of the Guatemalan peace process. As a whole, the analysis is somewhat fractured, but this refl ects not only Jonas’ own shifting perspective as events unfold, but also the currency of the questions addressed and her unwillingness to see the many setbacks as indicative of failure. In this, she implies a critique of the international community’s tendency to assess peace processes in dichotomous terms of success vs. failure—do we have peace or war? democracy or dictator- ship? justice? inclusion? Peace implementation can neither be pure success nor pure failure, but contains the same inherent complications refl ective of the con- fl ict and the compromise itself and the same contradictions inherent in the larger global order within which all compromises are constructed. Finally, foreshad- owing some of the central themes in Globalization, Jonas concludes in Centaurs exactly where she, Chase-Dunn and Amaro begin in Globalization—with the balanced assertion that post-war Guatemala represents a great advance over the previous forty years of authoritarianism and political violence while simultane- ously coming up quite short of the cooperative consolidation of peace and popu- lar democratization that so many had hoped for. While Centaurs focuses on the trajectory of settlement implementation, Globalization addresses current and future needs of Guatemalans working toward political democracy and economic development. Based on the proceedings of the 1998 Seminar on Guatemalan Development and Democratization held at the Universidad del Valle de Guatemala, Guatemala City, Globalization brings together the perspectives of Guatemala specialists (both U.S. and Guatemalan), world-system and development scholars, and social scientists as well as policy makers and practitioners. Globalization is organized into four main sections. In Part I, following the brief introductory chapter by Jonas and Chase-Dunn, Kristin Marsh449 Review Essay 450 ing cultural rights and the central importance of indigenous access to develop- ment and democratic processes. Warren (“Pan-Mayanism and the Guatemalan Peace Process”) speaks to the extent to which citizen groups participated in the negotiation process. Popular and Maya groups coordinated eff orts in articulating and demanding inclusion of their concerns, while the economic elite recognized the link between international norms of indigenous human rights and the neces- sity to regain external legitimacy. Success of the settlement continues to depend on cross- and intra-class coalition building and meaningful institutional reform, but the effi cacy of such popular mobilization among ethnic groups in Guatemala is evident. Serech (“Development of Globalization in the Mayan Population of Guatemala”) considers the impact of globalization and regionalization on the construction of ethnic identities. Th e future role of Mayan populations will refl ect a directly negotiated position with the centers of economic and politi- cal power, nonetheless displaying persisting inequalities and uneven adaptation of groups previously excluded from the global project. Clearly, language is a central aspect of adaptation, and Richards and Richards (“Linguistic Diversity, Interculturalism, and Democracy”) identify recent shifts in language patterns, including a growing bi-lingualism that maintains advantages of Ladinos while simultaneously advancing the use of English and Spanish at the expense of a number of indigenous languages. In order to prevent the extinction of these spoken languages, intercultural educational programs must explicitly work to preserve them. Part IV places the current crisis in Guatemala in its global context, incor- porating the eff ects of broader structures and processes as they shape poten- tial outcomes “on the Ground” in Guatemala. Alejandro Portes (“Th eories of Development and Th eir Application to Small Countries”) claims that world-sys- tems theory has never been very good at explaining the unique historical experi- ences of single societies. Aside from ignoring the extent to which world-systems theory was built on historical and case specifi city, Portes’s argument undermines the analytic necessity of bringing the broader political-economic context to bear on the uniqueness of historical trajectory. Th e point is not to privilege the “broad strokes” of world-historic processes when trying to understand particular phenomena, but to take the larger economic and political structures seriously as constraining factors. In spite of Portes’s insistence that world-systems theory has been blind-sided by the experiences of certain individual cases (in this experi- ence, world-systems theory is in good company), there are also many instances in which the world-systems perspective has furthered our understanding con- siderably. Guatemala is one example, and the scholars who have contributed to this volume, while not all identifying as world-systems theorists, nevertheless understand the extent to which the logic of global capitalism shapes the interests and options of relevant actors. Th e articles by William I. Robinson and the Christopher Chase-Dunn and Susan Manning illustrate the usefulness of the world-systems perspective in locating the contradictions facing Guatemalans today. Robinson is poignant in his critique of the neoliberal project. In fact, we owe the clarity of this critique as incorporated by other authors throughout Globalization (as well as in Centaurs) to Robinson. Neoliberal ideology is so incipient and so internalized that it shapes the language of our dialogue. Robinson reminds us that we mistake polyarchy for democracy; Chase-Dunn and Manning concur that debates on development assume neoliberalism, rather than contest its form. In particular, it is not enough to understand that the agro-industrial elite is the emergent economic/political actor throughout Central America; rather, in order to understand this elite segment’s shifting interests and power, it must be recognized as a fraction of the transnational elite. Th ereby, negotiations are seen in their global context: Th ere are never only two oppositional parties at the bargaining table, but many inter- ested actors (class segments) weighing in on terms of settlement—indigenous groups, external state powers, INGOs, IFIs, in addition to the insurgency and the state. Is comprehensive, cohesive analysis too much to expect from an edited volume of conference papers? Th is one comes impressively close, eff ectively bridging local realities with a global logic. Globalization represents an important complement (in some ways, a corrective) to Jonas’s view, from within Guatemala, of a unique and internally driven historical experience. Further, Jonas takes us through the Constitutional referendum of 1999, while Globalization is explicitly forward looking, with concrete discussion of current organizational and policy issues. Taken together, these volumes refl ect the long-term nature of post-con- fl ict transitions. Successes and disappointments continue along the way, and the longer-term projects are really just emerging. Still, while the prospects for social justice and popular democracy appear few, it helps to recall the 36 years of politi- cal violence and just how far the people of Guatemala have come. Review Essay