image (2).jpg image (3).jpg image (4).jpg image (5).jpg image (6).jpg image (7).jpg image (8).jpg image (9).jpg image (10).jpg image (11).jpg image (12).jpg image (13).jpg image (2).jpg image (3).jpg image (4).jpg image (5).jpg image (6).jpg image (7).jpg image (8).jpg image (9).jpg image (10).jpg image (11).jpg image (12).jpg image (13).jpg image (14).jpg image (15).jpg image (16).jpg image (17).jpg image (18).jpg image (19).jpg image (20).jpg studi efektivitas pelayanan publik di kecamatan kejaksan kota cirebon jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 1, april 2016, hlm. 16-21 doi: /10.18196/jesp.17.1.2457 identifikasi potensi ekonomi kecamatan tanjungsari kabupaten gunungkidul yogyakarta romi bhakti hartarto fakultas ekonomi dan bisnis, universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta jalan lingkar selatan, bantul, yogyakarta 55183 indonesia, phone +62-274-387656 e-mail korespondensi: romi.hartarto@gmail.com naskah diterima: november 2015; disetujui: februari 2016 abstract: the intention of regional government of special region of yogyakarta to make south area as the front page of regional economic development has been initiated. as one subdistrict located in the south area of gunungkidul regency, tanjungsari subdistrict has several prospects on economy, tourism, and resources due to its strategic and direct position near the hindia ocean and southern traffic lane. this study aims to mapping economic potential based upon leading sectors as identified by location quotient (lq) method and klassen typology which is employed to characterize the economic pattern and structure. based on lq analysis, both manufacturing and construction sectors are the leading sectors which need to develop in advance since they are the supporting sectors nowadays and in the future. meanwhile, there exists a shift in economic pattern from developing region to underdeveloped region according to klassen typology. keywords: economic development, leading sector, lq, klassen typology jel classification: r11, r58 abstrak: visi pemerintah daerah istimewa yogyakarta untuk menjadikan kawasan selatan sebagai halaman depan bagi pembangunan ekonomi daerah sudah mulai dicanangkan. sebagai salah satu kecamatan yang terletak di kawasan selatan kabupaten gunungkidul, kecamatan tanjungsari memiliki berbagai potensi ekonomi, wisata, dan sumber daya mengingat letaknya yang berbatasan langsung dengan samudera hindia dan dilalui jalan jalur lintas selatan. penelitian ini bermaksud memetakan potensi ekonomi berdasarkan sektor-sektor unggulan yang diidentifikasi melalui metode location quotient (lq) dan tipologi klassen untuk mengetahui pola dan struktur ekonomi. berdasarkan analisis lq, sektor industri pengolahan dan bangunan menjadi sektor unggulan yang perlu dikembangkan karena merupakan sektor penunjang baik di masa sekarang maupun mendatang. sementara itu, terdapat pergeseran pola perekonomian dari kawasan berkembang menjadi kawasan tertinggal menurut tipologi klassen. keywords: pembangunan ekonomi, sektor unggulan, lq, tipologi klassen klasifikasi jel: r11, r58 identifikasi potensi ekonomi kecamatan tanjungsari... (romi bhakti hartarto) 17 pendahuluan pembangunan ekonomi meliputi segala upaya dan kebijakan dengan tujuan untuk meningkatkan standar hidup masyarakat, memperbanyak lapangan kerja baru, mengurangi ketimpangan distribusi pendapatan, mempererat hubungan ekonomi regional, dan menggeser aktivitas ekonomi dari sektor pertanian ke sektor industri dan jasa yang memiliki nilai tambah lebih tinggi. perencanaan pembangunan daerah yang utuh hendaknya dimulai pada tingkat kecamatan yang merupakan daerah administratif di bawah kabupaten atau kota yang terdiri dari desa-desa atau kelurahan-kelurahan. mengingat setiap daerah memiliki keberagaman potensi, baik dari sisi sumber daya alam, manusianya, maupun kondisi geografis, maka kebijakan pembangunan daerah tentu saja tidak secara langsung mengadopsi kebijakan nasional, daerah induk pada tingkat administratif yang lebih tinggi, atau daerah lain yang dianggap berhasil. sehingga dibutuhkan kebijakan pembangunan yang didasarkan pada kekhasan daerah sesuai dengan potensi sumber daya lokal. kecamatan tanjungsari terletak di kabupaten gunungkidul, provinsi daerah istimewa yogyakarta. wilayahnya yang terletak di sebelah selatan kabupaten gunungkidul menjadikan kecamatan ini berbatasan langsung dengan samudera hindia sehingga memiliki wisata bahari yang memberikan daya tarik bagi para wisatawan dan berkontribusi terhadap perekonomian masyarakat setempat. selain potensi wisata, kecamatan tanjungsari juga memiliki beberapa potensi di bidang pertanian, perikanan, dan peternakan dengan hasil olahan berupa pandan, melon, gambas, dan alga jenis ulva yang bisa dikembangkan pengolahannya untuk disinergikan dengan sektor pariwisata. sementara dari segi geografis, kawasan ini dilewati oleh jalur lintas selatan yang diyakini dapat menggerakkan roda perekonomian kabupaten gunungkidul di masa datang. terlebih pemerintah provinsi diy sudah mencanangkan visi yang menjadikan kawasan selatan sebagai halaman depan pembangunan ekonomi daerah. terlebih, kabupaten gunungkidul termasuk dalam kategori daerah berkembang cepat menurut penelitian restiatun (2009). oleh karena itu, pengelolaan ekonomi yang mensinergikan pemanfaatan sumber daya bahari dengan sumber daya alam lainnya secara integral diharapkan dapat mengurangi kesenjangan dan meningkatkan pendapatan masyarakat kecamatan tanjungsari. potensi ekonomi dan wisata alam tersebut perlu diidentifikasi dengan jelas sehingga dapat dikembangkan untuk memberikan efek positif ke sektor lainnya. untuk memperoleh hasil optimal berdasarkan potensi unggulan yang dimiliki, penelitian ini bermaksud untuk memetakan seluruh potensi ekonomi kecamatan tanjungsari secara akurat melalui analisis sektor dan sub sektor ekonomi yang berpotensi sebagai daya ungkit pengembangan wilayah. tumbuhnya sektor ekonomi unggulan diharapkan dapat mendorong pertumbuhan sektorsektor ekonomi lainnya. sebagai gambaran, sektor unggulan yang dimiliki oleh kabupaten gunungkidul menurut hasil penelitian restiatun (2009) adalah sektor pertanian, sektor pertambangan dan penggalian, sektor bangunan, serta sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi. penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan pengembangan ekonomi lokal dengan dalih bahwa untuk menjadi kawasan yang mandiri dan berkelanjutan, kawasan tersebut harus mampu mendayagunakan sumber daya yang dimilikinya semaksimal mungkin sehingga tercipta nilai tambah dan rantai produksi yang panjang. perekonomian lokal terbagi menjadi dua sektor, yakni basis dan non-basis. aktivitas perekonomian pada sektor basis mampu mengekspor barang dan jasa ke luar batas wilayah perekonomian sementara sektor nonbasis hanya mampu menyediakan barang dan jasa untuk memenuhi kebutuhan masyarakat yang berada di wilayah bersangkutan. teori basis ekonomi menyatakan bahwa makin banyak sektor basis di suatu daerah, makin bertambah pula arus pendapatan dari luar ke dalam daerah sehingga akan menaikkan permintaan akan barang dan jasa yang diproduksi oleh sektor non-basis, dan sebaliknya. dalam hal ini, sektor basis memiliki peranan sebagai penggerak utama perekonomian wilayah melalui efek pengganda. oleh karena itu, suatu daerah dapat berkembang jika mampu memajukan sektor basisnya (glasson, jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 1, april 2016: 16-21 18 1977), serta penanaman modal pada industri lokal sebagai hasil dari naiknya pendapatan industri sektor basis (kadariah, 1985). metode penelitian metode dasar yang diterapkan dalam penelitian ini adalah analisis deskriptif yang bertujuan untuk membuat gambaran suatu fenomena sosial untuk dicari hubungannya. ada pun, pengumpulan data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini melalui studi pustaka untuk memperdalam pemahaman konsep pengembangan kawasan dan dokumentasi data statistik terkini yang diterbitkan oleh badan pusat statistik (bps) kabupaten gunungkidul dalam beberapa tahun terakhir. sesuai dengan tujuan yang telah dirumuskan dalam penelitian ini, maka metode analisis yang digunakan meliputi analisis sektor dan subsektor ekonomi potensial melalui indikator turunan dari pdrb seperti pertumbuhan ekonomi, struktur ekonomi dan pendapatan per kapita penduduk kecamatan tanjungsari. dalam hal ini, analisis location quotient (lq) digunakan untuk menunjukkan besar kecilnya peranan suatu sektor perekonomian suatu wilayah jika dibandingkan dengan sektor yang sama pada wilayah dengan cakupan lebih besar. metode ini digunakan untuk mengidentifikasi sektor ekonomi mana yang paling berpotensi untuk menjadi unggulan. metode location quotient (lq) dibedakan menjadi dua, yakni: static location quotient (slq atau lq) dan dynamic location quotient (dlq). dasar penggunaan teknik lq adalah teori ekonomi basis di mana ketika industri basis itu menghasilkan barang dan jasa untuk pasar di daerah dan di luar daerah maka penjualan hasil ke luar daerah akan mendatangkan pendapatan ke daerah yang bersangkutan. masuknya arus pendapatan akan menyebabkan naiknya konsumsi dan investasi sehingga pendapatan daerah dan kesempatan kerja ikut meningkat pada gilirannya. ada pun, rumus penghitungan yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah (budiharsono, 2001): (1) dimana: : nilai pdrb suatu sektor tingkat kecamatan; vr : nilai pdrb seluruh sektor tingkat kecamatan; v1 : nilai pdrb suatu sektor tingkat kabupaten; v : nilai pdrb seluruh sektor tingkat kabupaten berdasarkan analisis location quotient (lq), jika nilai lq > 1 maka sektor tersebut potensial, yakni dapat melayani pasar baik di dalam maupun di luar kecamatan tanjungsari. semakin nilai lq lebih tinggi dari satu, semakin tinggi keunggulan komparatifnya (cahyono dan wijaya, 2014). sebaliknya jika nilai lq < 1, maka sektor tersebut bukan potensial di mana belum mampu memenuhi permintaan pasar di kecamatan tanjungsari. jika nilai lq = 1, sektor tersebut hanya mampu melayani pasar di kecamatan tanjungsari saja tanpa mampu memasarkan hasil sektor tersebut ke daerah lain. perubahan perekonomian lokal pada kurun waktu tertentu dapat diuji melalui dynamic location quotient (dlq) sehingga perubahan sektoral dapat diketahui. dlq merupakan bentuk modifikasi dari slq dengan mengakomodasi besarnya pdrb dari nilai produksi sektor atau sub sektor dari waktu ke waktu. naik turunnya lq dapat dilihat untuk sektor tertentu pada dimensi waktu yang berbeda dengan formulasi sebagai berikut (nazipawati, 2007): dlq ij = [ ] (2) di mana: dlqij : indeks potensi sektor i di tingkat kecamatan/kabupaten gij : laju pertumbuhan nilai tambah sektor dan sub sektor i di daerah studi gj : rata-rata laju pertumbuhan pdrb di tingkat kecamatan/kabupaten gi : laju pertumbuhan nilai tambah sektor dan sub sektor i daerah referensi g: rata-rata pertumbuhan pdrb daerah referensi nilai dlq yang dihasilkan jika lebih dari 1, maka potensi perkembangan sektor i di suatu daerah lebih cepat jika dibanding dengan sektor yang sama dalam lingkup nasional. sebaliknya, identifikasi potensi ekonomi kecamatan tanjungsari... (romi bhakti hartarto) 19 jika dlq < 1, maka potensi perkembangan sektor i di daerah lebih rendah jika dibanding nasional secara keseluruhan. penggabungan antara nilai slq dan dlq dapat dijadikan kriteria dalam menentukan apakah sektor ekonomi tergolong unggulan, prospektif, andalan, dan tertinggal. ada pun kriteria yang digunakan sebagai berikut (suyatno, 2000): a. jika nilai lq dan dlq > 1, berarti sektor tersebut akan tetap menjadi basis baik sekarang maupun di masa datang. b. jika nilai lq > 1 dan dlq < 1, itu artinya sektor tersebut akan bergeser dari sektor basis menjadi non basis di masa datang. c. jika nilai lq < 1 dan dlq > 1, maka sektor tersebut akan bergeser dari sektor non basis menjadi sektor basis di masa datang. d. jika nilai lq dan dlq < 1, maka sektor tersebut akan terus menjadi non basis baik saat ini maupun di masa datang. tabel 1. penggolongan sektor menurut slq dan dlq kriteria dlq > 1 dlq < 1 slq > 1 unggulan prospektif slq < 1 andalan tertinggal selain kedua analisis di atas, analisis tipologi klassen turut digunakan untuk mencari tahu gambaran pola dan struktur pertumbuhan ekonomi kecamatan tanjungsari dengan membagi daerah berdasarkan dua indikator ekonomi, yakni pertumbuhan ekonomi dan pendapatan per kapita daerah. melalui indikator ini, daerah terbagi menjadi empat kelompok yakni (rustiadi et al, 2011): (1) daerah cepat maju dan cepat tumbuh, yakni daerah dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi dan pendapatan per kapita lebih tinggi dari rata-rata kabupaten, (2) daerah maju tapi tertekan, yakni dengan pendapatan per kapita lebih tinggi namun pertumbuhan ekonominya lebih rendah dari rata-rata kabupaten, (3) daerah berkembang cepat dengan tingkat pertumbuhan tinggi namun pendapatan per kapitanya lebih rendah dari rata-rata kabupaten, dan (4) daerah tertinggal dengan tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi dan pendapatan per kapita lebih rendah dari rata-rata kabupaten. ada pun, klasifikasi wilayah menurut tipologi klassen dapat dilihat pada tabel 2. tabel 2. tipologi klassen ŷ ğ yij > ŷj yij > ŷj gij > ğj kuadran iii daerah berkembang cepat kuadran i daerah cepat maju dan cepat tumbuh gij < ğj kuadran iv daerah relatif tertinggal kuadran ii daerah maju tapi tertekan hasil dan pembahasan berdasarkan hasil analisis static location quotient (slq) dan dynamic location quotient (dlq), terlihat bahwa kecamatan tanjungsari selama periode 2011-2013 memiliki dua sektor unggulan dengan nilai slq dan dlq lebih dari satu, yakni industri pengolahan dan bangunan. sektor bangunan dan industri pengolahan menjadi sektor unggulan di wilayah ini akibat pengembangan saran dan prasarana di sekitar kawasan wisata pantai dalam tiga tahun terakhir. dalam hal ini, kedua sektor tersebut dapat berperan sebagai sektor penunjang baik di masa sekarang maupun di masa datang. pengembangan kedua sektor tersebut melalui pembangunan infrastruktur berupa akses jalan menuju lokasi pantai diharapkan dapat memaksimalkan geliat perekonomian masyarakat kecamatan tanjungsari di sekitar pantai. sementara itu, sektor pertanian merupakan sektor prospektif karena memiliki nilai slq lebih dari satu tetapi nilai dlq kurang dari satu sehingga sektor ini tidak mampu diharapkan di masa datang meskipun saat ini merupakan sektor basis. salah satu penyebabnya adalah daerah ini sering mengalami kekeringan di saat musim kemarau meski kondisi lahannya sangat cocok untuk pengembangan pertanian. namun demikian, slq sektor pertanian bernilai lebih dari satu selama tiga tahun berturut-turut sehingga menjadi sektor basis dan mampu berjualan ke wilayah lain. hal ini tak lepas dari adanya perkembangan lembaga keuangan mikro di daerah ini. ada pun sektorsektor yang dikategorikan sebagai sektor prospektif, andalan, dan kurang prospektif dapat dilihat pada tabel 3. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 1, april 2016: 16-21 20 pada tabel 3 terdapat lima sektor andalan dengan nilai slq < 1 dan dlq > 1, yakni pertambangan dan penggalian; listrik, gas, dan air bersih; perdagangan, hotel, dan restoran; pengangkutan dan komunikasi; dan jasa-jasa. meskipun sektor-sektor tersebut belum dapat menunjang perekonomian di kecamatan tanjungsari di saat sekarang, sektor-sektor tersebut dapat dikembangkan untuk kemajuan ekonomi di masa datang. sementara itu, sektor keuangan, persewaan, dan jasa perusahaan dikategorikan kurang prospektif karena nilai dlq dan slq kurang dari satu sehingga belum dapat menunjang perekonomian di kecamatan tanjungsari. sementara itu, gambaran mengenai pola dan struktur ekonomi di kecamatan tanjungsari dapat dilihat melalui analisis tipologi klassen seperti yang tertera pada tabel 4. selama tahun 2011 hingga 2012, pola perekonomian kecamatan tanjungsari tidak bergeser dari kriteria berkembang yakni dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi di atas pertumbuhan ekonomi tingkat kabupaten dan pendapatan per kapita di bawah kabupaten gunungkidul. namun demikian, turunnya kinerja perekonomian pada tahun 2013 telah berdampak pada perekonomian kecamatan menjadi daerah tertinggal dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi dan pendapatan per kapita di bawah level kabupaten. implikasi kebijakan bagi daerah tertinggal adalah kebijakan sektoral yang diarahkan pada upaya penyediaan kesempatan kerja melalui pemanfaatan teknologi padat karya untuk industri pengolahan produk pertanian yang produk pasarnya luas, yakni bisa dijual ke luar daerah mengingat sektor industri pengolahan merupakan sektor unggulan. oleh karena itu, peran serta masyarakat dalam dunia usaha perlu digalakkan melalui tabel 3. analisis perbandingan nilai slq dan dlq kecamatan tanjungsari rata-rata tahun 2010-2013 lapangan usaha slq dlq kategori 1. pertanian 1,288218 0,067353 prospektif 2. pertambangan & penggalian 0,301206 1,36238 andalan 3. industri pengolahan 1,034609 1,576251 unggulan 4. listrik, gas & air bersih 0,524111 2,955666 andalan 5. bangunan 1,019694 2,059498 unggulan 6. perdagangan, hotel & rest 0,760653 1,084438 andalan 7. pengangkutan & komunikasi 0,459442 3,811885 andalan 8. keu, persewaan & jasa pershn 0,720223 0,66119 kurang prospektif 9. jasa-jasa 0,945181 1,872776 andalan sumber: data diolah tabel 4. pola ekonomi kecamatan tanjungsari, gunungkidul tahun 2011-2013 no tahun pdrb (juta) pertumbuhan ekonomi (%) pendapatan per kapita (rp) kriteria kawasan 1 2011 130.184 4,58 5.053.727 berkembang 2 2012 136.696 5,00 5.295.216 berkembang 3 2013 142.436 4,20 5.475.359 tertinggal rata-rata 136.438 4,59 5.274.767 tertinggal kabupaten gunungkidul 1 2011 4,33 5.124.334 2 2012 4,84 5.353.512 3 2013 5,16 5.602.170 rata-rata 4,78 5.360.006 sumber: data diolah identifikasi potensi ekonomi kecamatan tanjungsari... (romi bhakti hartarto) 21 peningkatan kapasitas berupa sarana dan prasarana dalam pemasaran produk. kebijakan pengembangan industri tetap berorientasi pada industri yang tidak mencemari lingkungan dan tidak terpusat pada kawasan tertentu agar pertumbuhan industri dapat mengangkat pertumbuhan wilayah dan menyerap tenaga kerja di daerah tersebut dalam mengantisipasi terjadinya urbanisasi. simpulan sebagai bagian dari kabupaten gunungkidul yang berbatasan langsung dengan samudera hindia dan dilalui jalan jalur lintas selatan, kecamatan tanjungsari memiliki berbagai potensi yang dapat dikembangkan. namun demikian, kecamatan tanjungsari mengalami pergeseran dari kawasan berkembang menjadi kawasan tertinggal. salah satu alasannya adalah karena kecamatan tanjungsari bertumpu pada sektor pertanian yang meskipun menurut analisis slq merupakan sektor basis, namun menurut analisis dlq sektor tersebut tidak mampu diharapkan di masa datang. maka dari itu, rencana pembangunan kecamatan tanjungsari sebaiknya lebih diarahkan ke sektor-sektor unggulan yang menjadi penunjang dalam perekonomian seperti industri pengolahan dan bangunan melalui terbangunnya infrastruktur berupa tempat pemasaran hasil industri pengolahan dan akses jalan menuju pantai karena kedua sektor tersebut merupakan sektor basis dan mampu menjadi penunjang di masa ini maupun yang akan datang. daftar pustaka budiharsono, s. (2001). teknik pengembangan wilayah pesisir dan lautan. jakarta: pt pradnya paramita. cahyono, s.a. dan wijaya, w.w. (2014). identifikasi sektor ekonomi unggulan dan ketimpangan pendapatan antarkabupaten di sub das bengawan solo hulu. jurnal penelitian dan ekonomi kehutanan, 11, 3243. glasson, john. (1977). pengantar perencanaan regional. jakarta: fakultas ekonomi universitas indonesia. kadariah. (1985). ekonomi perencanaan. jakarta: lembaga penerbit fe-ui. nazipawati. (2007). “aplikasi model statik dan dinamic location quotients dan shift-share dalam perencanaan ekonomi regional (studi kasus kabupaten ogan komering ulu provinsi sumatera selatan)”. ekonomi regional 2(2): 8186. restiatun. (2009). identifikasi sektor unggulan dan ketimpangan antarkabupaten/kota di provinsi daerah istimewa yogyakarta. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan, 10, 77-98. rustiadi, e., saefulhakim, & panuju, d.r. (2011). perencanaan dan pengembangan wilayah. jakarta: yayasan pustaka obor indonesia. suyatno. (2000). analisis economic base terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah tingkat ii wonogiri menghadapi implementasi uu no. 22/1999 dan uu no. 5/1999. jurnal ekonomi dan pembangunan, i(2). fe universitas muhammadiyah surakarta. image (2).jpg image (3).jpg image (4).jpg image (5).jpg image (6).jpg image (7).jpg image (8).jpg microsoft word 08-mahrus jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 1, april 2014, hlm.71-77 pertumbuhan ekonomi dan penentuan titik ambang batas inflasi di indonesia mahrus lutfi adi kurniawan1, nano prawoto2 1 institute of public policy and economic studies jalan kenari 13 sidoarum iii yogyakarta, indonesia 2 fakultas ekonomi, universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta jalan lingkar selatan, bantul, yogyakarta 55183 indonesia, phone: +62 274 387656 e-mail korespondensi: mahrus_lutfi@yahoo.com naskah diterima: september 2013; disetujui: maret 2014 abstract: the study aims to see the relation between two macro indicators which are economic growth and inflation. the data are obtained from badan pusat statistik (bps) and badan koordinasi penanaman modal (bkpm) from the year 1971-2012. the analysis use causality granger test and non-linier regression. the result of this analysis shows that there is correlation between inflation and economic growth. there is no evidence of inflation dot (1 to 20%) that has negative influence toward the economic growth; population does not have significant influence to the economic growth while investment has positive impact on economic growth. keywords: economic growth; inflation; population; investment; granger causality jel classification: o11, o47, e31 abstrak: studi ini bertujuan untuk melihat sejauh mana hubungan antara dua indikator makro ekonomi yaitu pertumbuhan ekonomi dan inflasi. data yang digunakan diperoleh dari badan pusat statistik (bps) dan badan koordinasi penanaman modal (bkpm) pada tahun 1971-2012. teknik analisis yang digunakan adalah uji kausalitas granger dan regresi nonlinier. hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa terdapat hubungan dua arah yang saling berkaitan antara pertumbuhan ekonomi dan inflasi. tidak ditemukan titik inflasi (1 sampai 20 persen) yang berpengaruh negatif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, dan populasi tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi sedangkan investasi berpengaruh positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. kata kunci: pertumbuhan ekonomi; inflasi; populasi; investasi; kausalitas granger klasifikasi jel: o11, o47, e31 pendahuluan pertumbuhan ekonomi dan inflasi merupakan dua indikator dalam makroekonomi yang mendapat perhatian lebih dari para akademisi di bidang ekonomi dan pengampu kebijakan. berbagai macam kebijakan ditempuh untuk mendapatkan tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tinggi dengan tingkat inflasi yang rendah. pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tinggi memiliki arti standar hidup yang tinggi bagi warganya. standar hidup mengacu pada kesejahteraan ekonomi masyarakat. ukuran standar hidup mengacu pada nilai semua barang dan jasa yang dikonsumsi perkapita. ukuran paling umum yang digunakan adalah output nasional per kapita, yang diukur dengan pdb atau pnb per kapita. sementara itu, menurut khan (2005) inflasi yang tinggi memiliki efek negatif karena membebankan biaya kesejahteraan pada masyarakat, menghambat alokasi sumber daya yang efisien, angka kemiskinan yang semakin meningkat dan mengurangi pertumbuhan ekonomi jangka panjang. inflasi berdasarkan teori kuantitas yang jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 1, april 2014: 71-77 72 dikemukakan oleh irving fisher menyatakan bahwa inflasi hanya bisa terjadi kalau ada penambahan volume uang yang beredar, dan laju pertumbuhan inflasi ditentukan oleh laju pertumbuhan jumlah uang beredar dan harapan masyarakat mengenai kenaikan harga-harga di masa mendatang (basuki, 2003). inflasi adalah gejala yang menunjukkan kenaikan tingkat harga umum yang berlangsung terus menerus. oleh karena itu, tingkat inflasi yang terjadi dalam suatu negara merupakan salah satu ukuran untuk mengukur baik buruknya masalah ekonomi. di indonesia, pengendalian inflasi diserahkan tugas dan wewenangnya kepada bank indonesia. dimulai pada tahun 2007 bank indonesia mulai menggunakan inflation targetting framework (itf) untuk menerapkan sasaran inflasi dan mempublikasikannya untuk masyarakat. itf merupakan kerangka kebijakan moneter yang ditandai dengan pengumuman kepada publik mengenai target inflasi yang hendak dicapai dalam beberapa periode ke depan. secara eksplisit dinyatakan bahwa inflasi yang rendah dan stabil merupakan tujuan utama dari kebijakan moneter. di indonesia sendiri pada tahun 1970 sampai 2012, pertumbuhan ekonomi tertingginya adalah 9,88 persen yang terjadi pada tahun 1980 dan terendahnya adalah -13,13 persen yang terjadi pada tahun 1998. sementara ratarata pertumbuhan ekonominya di angka 5,60 persen. pada periode yang sama, tingkat inflasi tertinggi adalah 77,63 persen yang terjadi pada tahun 1998 dan tingkat inflasi terendah adalah 2,01 persen yang terjadi pada tahun 1999. sementara tingkat inflasi di indonesia rata-rata mencapai pada angka 9 sampai 12 persen. gambar 1 menunjukkan bahwa tidak mudah untuk menarik sebuah hubungan yang tepat antara tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi dan tingkat inflasi di indonesia. grafik tersebut menunjukkan bahwa inflasi terlihat lebih fluktuatif dibandingkan dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi, dan juga inflasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi bergerak secara bersama-sama pada suatu waktu, terutama pada tahun 1972 sampai 1997. namun, ada pola yang berbeda dari hubungan antara pertumbuhan ekonomi dan inflasi pada tahun 1998 ketika krisis ekonomi melanda indonesia. pada saat itu tingkat inflasi yang tinggi datang di saat pertumbuhan ekonomi sangat lesu bahkan negatif yang jatuh pada angka -13,13 persen. di satu sisi inflasi mencapai 77,63 persen sementara di sisi lain pertumbuhan ekonomi menurun secara signifykan sampai -13,13 persen. ini menunjukkan bahwa tingkat inflasi yang sangat tinggi berbahaya bagi pertumbuhan ekonomi indonesia. gambar 1. pertumbuhan ekonomi dan inflasi namun, bertentangan dengan kondisi pada tahun 1998, data tahun 1972 sampai 1980 menunjukkan hubungan yang berkebalikan dari pertumbuhan ekonomi dan inflasi. pada periode tersebut tingkat inflasi rata-rata mencapai 18,35 persen tapi hal tersebut diiringi dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi dengan rata-rata 7,49 persen. pertumbuhan ekonomi tertinggi adalah 9,88 persen yang dicapai pada tahun 1980 disertai dengan tingkat inflasi yang mencapai 15,97 persen, sedangkan tingkat inflasi tertinggi (selain saat terjadi krisis tahun 1998) adalah 33,32 persen yang terjadi pada tahun 1974 dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang mencapai 7,63 persen. angka-angka tersebut menunjukkan bahwa inflasi yang tinggi hingga 35 persen tidak terlihat melemahkan partumbuhan ekonomi indonesia. namun yang menjadi catatan di sini juga adalah, pada tahun 2005 dan 2008 saat terjadi krisis global, inflasi di indonesia mencapai angka tertinggi pada tahun milenium yaitu pada angka 17,11 persen dan 11,06 persen. namun, pertumbuhan ekonomi masih mencatatkan angka yang tinggi di saat terjadi krisis global dibanding negara maju atau negara berkembang pertumbuhan ekonomi dan penentuan ...(mahrus lutfi adi kurniawan, nano prawoto) 73 lainnya, yaitu berkisar pada angka 5,69 persen dan 6,06 persen. gambar 2. rata-rata pertumbuhan ekonomi berdasarkan inflasi grafik pada gambar 2 menerangkan bahwa meskipun hubungan antara inflasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi tidak dapat disimpulkan dengan pasti. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa inflasi pada satu titik tertentu memiliki dampak positif bagi pertumbuhan ekonomi indonesia. namun, harus disadari pula bahwa inflasi pada satu titik tertentu memiliki hubungan negatif, terutama ketika inflasi mencapai angka dua digit dengan tingkat yang tinggi. studi yang dilakukan malik dan chowdhury (2001) menyebutkan bahwa karya-karya sebelumnya (misalnya, tun wai, 1959) gagal membangun hubungan yang bermakna antara inflasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi. namun, thirlwall dan barton (1971), seperti yang disebutkan oleh mubarik (2005), dalam studi lintas negara awalnya, melaporkan adanya hubungan positif antara inflasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi untuk negara-negara industri dan hubungan negatif bagi negara-negara berkembang. perdebatan tentang hubungan antara inflasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi tetap terbuka sampai sekarang. menurut malik dan chowdury (2001), hubungan antara inflasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi tetap menjadi kontroversi dalam teori dan temuan empiris. berasal dari konteks amerika latin pada tahun 1950-an, masalah ini telah menghasilkan perdebatan abadi antara stukturalis dan monetaris. para strukturalis percaya bahwa inflasi sangat penting bagi pertumbuhan ekonomi, sedangkan monetaris melihat inflasi sangat merugikan bagi kemajuan ekonomi. ada dua aspek perdebatan ini: sifat hubungan jika ada dan arah kausalitas. seperti yang disebutkan oleh bruno dan easterly (1996), pemandangan pada tahun 1960an adalah inflasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi mempunyai hubungan positif dalam jangka pendek. bahkan untuk jangka panjang, tobin dan sidrausky menyarankan efek positif pada pertumbuhan ekonomi dari inflasi yang lebih tinggi. ketika inflasi tinggi, kekayaan akan dialokasikan dari uang dan menjadi modal fisik. demikian pula, beberapa teori pengembangan menyarankan bahwa inflasi dapat digunakan untuk memobilisasi sumber daya sebagai akumulasi modal. namun, temuan bruno dan easterly menunjukkan bahwa tidak ada hubungan antara inflasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi pada tingkat inflasi tahunan kurang dari 40 persen. mereka menemukan hubungan jangka pendek sampai menengah antara inflasi yang tinggi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi meskipun negatif. malik dan chowdhury (2001) melakukan analisis kointegrasi inflasi terhadap partumbuhan ekonomi pada empat negara di kawasan asia selatan (bangladesh, india, pakistan, dan sri lanka) dan melaporkan dua poin penting. pertama, inflasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang positif dan saling terkait. kedua, sensitivitas inflasi terhadap perubahan tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi lebih besar dari pertumbuhan ekonomi terhadap perubahan tingkat inflasi. di sisi lain, beberapa studi juga turut menjelaskan hubungan negatif antara inflasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi. hasil studi fischer (1993) menunjukkan bahwa inflasi mengurangi pertumbuhan ekonomi yaitu dengan berkurangnya investasi dan berkurangnya partumbuhan produktivitas. inflasi yang rendah dan defisit fiskal yang kecil tidak diperlukan untuk pertumbuhan yang tinggi bahkan untuk jangka panjang. selain itu, inflasi yang tinggi tidak konsisten dengan partumbuhan ekonomi yang berkelanjutan. satu analisis terbaru menunjukkan bahwa ada ambang batas inflasi dalam hubungannya antara pertumbuhan ekonomi dan inflasi. dalam konteks ini, khan dan senhadji (2001) telah melakukan studi. mereka tidak hanya menguji hubungan inflasi dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi tetapi juga menunjukkan ambang batas tingkat inflasi bagi negara yang maju dan berkembang. mereka melakukan studi dengan jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 1, april 2014: 71-77 74 data panel untuk 140 negara berkembang dan negara-negara industri untuk periode 19601998. hasilnya, mereka menyarankan adanya ambang batas pada tingkat inflasi yang dapat memberikan suatu efek negatif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. secara khusus, perkiraan ambang batas inflasi adalah 1-3 persen untuk negara-negara maju dan 7-11 persen untuk negara berkembang. metode penelitian studi ini menggunakan variabel pertumbuhan ekonomi sebagai variabel dependen sementara inflasi, laju pertumbuhan penduduk, dan tingkat pertumbuhan investasi sebagai variabel independen. studi ini menggunakan analisis kuantitatif dan data sekunder berupa data runtut waktu dalam bentuk tahunan dari tahun 1971–2012. data dalam studi ini diperoleh dari badan pusat statistik (bps) dengan sumberdata international monetary fund (imf) serta dari badan koordinasi penanaman modal (bkpm). secara umum gambaran model dalam studi ini adalah: ∗ 1) keterangan: adalah laju pertumbuhan ekonomi; adalah laju inflasi; adalah ambang batas inflasi, adalah laju pertumbuhan populasi; adalah laju pertumbuhan realisasi investasi; adalah error term tujuan dari studi ini adalah untuk menyelidiki hubungan pertumbuhan ekonomi dan inflasi indonesia serta memperkirakan ambang batas yang tepat dari inflasi. studi dimulai dengan analisis kausalitas granger yang mengukur hubungan linier antara pertumbuhan ekonomi dan inflasi. setelah hubungan kausalitas dapat ditentukan, maka berlaku model ambang batas untuk menghitung ambang batas inflasi. untuk melakukan uji kausalitas data, digunakan uji augmented dickey fuller (adf) untuk melihat apakah data tersebut stasioner atau tidak. jika ternyata data runtut waktu yang diteliti tidak stasioner, maka akan terjadi regresi lancung. hasil pengolahan data memberikan hasil uji akar unit pada tingkat level. hasil dan pembahasan tabel 1 menunjukkan bahwa seluruh variabel, yakni gdp, (pertumbuhan ekonomi), ihk (indeks harga konsumen), dan inv (realisasi investasi) telah stasioner pada tingkat level sedangkan variabel pop (populasi) tidak dapat diuji karena sudah terhitung dengan bilangan yang kecil sehingga tetap stasioner tanpa uji stasioneritas. setelah data sudah stasioner, selanjutnya dilakukan uji kausalitas granger yang dapat mengindikasikan apakah suatu variabel mempunyai hubungan dua arah, atau hanya satu arah. laju pertumbuhan pdb, ihk, populasi dan realisasi investasi kemudian dihitung dengan menggunakan transformasi log. berdasarkan tabel 2 dapat diketahui bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi dan inflasi memiliki hubungan dua arah dan positif. ketika pertumbuhan ekonomi naik, maka para investor akan berbondong-bondong menginvestasikan modalnya ke negara tersebut. ketika para investor menanamkan modalnya maka akan terbuka lapangan pekerjaan yang dapat diserap sehingga dapat menaikkan pendapatan masyarakat. ketika pendapatan masyarakat naik maka kebutuhan konsumsi juga akan meningkat. ketika permintaan meningkat maka harga suatu barang juga akan meningkat yang dapat memicu terjadinya inflasi. sementara, beberapa pakar ekonom bertabel 1. hasil uji stasioneritas pada tingkat level variabel adf t-statistik nilai kritis mackinnon keterangan 1 % 5 % 10 % dloggdp -4,102511 -3,6067 -2,9378 -2,6069 stasioner dlogihk -4,095982 -3,6067 -2,9378 -2,6069 stasioner dloginv -7,783192 -3,6117 -2,9399 -2,6080 stasioner pertumbuhan ekonomi dan penentuan ...(mahrus lutfi adi kurniawan, nano prawoto) 75 pendapat bahwa inflasi terkadang dapat mendorong partumbuhan ekonomi selama masih dalam batas normal, sehingga inflasi dapat berpengaruh positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. ketika harga-harga barang naik, maka produsen akan meningkatkan produktivitasnya dengan membuka lapangan pekerjaan yang baru atau menambah jam kerja bagi karyawannya. sehingga, kenaikan pendapatan masyarakat akan meningkatkan konsumsi dan dapat mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi. setelah uji kausalitas granger, langkah selanjutnya adalah penerapan model yang akan diregresi, yakni sebagai berikut: tersebdi atas ingin melihat sejauh mana inflasi di indonesia mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi. studi ini hanya mengukur inflasi dari 1 hingga 20 persen karena setelah krisis 1997-1998 inflasi di indonesia selalu bisa ditekan dan yang paling tinggi hanya 17,11 persen pada tahun 2005. hasil uji regresi model ditampilkan pada tabel 3 (lampiran). hasil regresi di atas menunjukkan bahwa inflasi dari titik 1 sampai 20 persen tidak berdampak negatif bagi pertumbuhan ekonomi di indonesia sesuai dengan studi bruno dan easterly (1996) bahwa hubungan negatif inflasi terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi terjadi ketika inflasi menyentuh di atas 40 persen untuk negara berkembang. jika dilihat dari nilai koefisien pada tabel, tidak ada hubungan negatif antara inflasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi. ini berarti bahwa negara yang memiliki tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi tinggi juga akan rentan terkena inflasi yang tinggi. hasil regresi juga menunjukkan bahwa laju pertumbuhan populasi indonesia tidak berdampak positif bagi pertumbuhan ekonomi indonesia dari titik inflasi 1 sampai 20. adapun variabel investasi mempunyai pengaruh signifikan dan positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi dari titik inflasi 1 sampai 20. sementara, pengaruh inflasi dari titik 1 sampai 20 tidak mempengaruhi pertumbuhan realisasi investasi di indonesia. simpulan berdasarkan hasil pengujian dan analisis tentang hubungan antara pertumbuhan ekonomi dan inflasi serta hasil regresi dengan beberapa titik level inflasi dari 1 sampai 20 persen dapat diambil beberapa kesimpulan. pertama, hasil uji kausalitas granger menunjukkan bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi dan inflasi mempunyai dua arah yang saling berhubungan. hal ini berbeda dengan beberapa studi sebelumnya yang telah dilakukan oleh khan dan senhadji serta bruno dan esterln yang menjelaskan bahwa masing-masing studi mengungkapkan adanya hubungan yang satu arah saja. namun, mereka juga berpendapat sama bahwa hubungan satu arah hanya akan terjadi di negara maju sedangkan di negara berkembang saling berbeda pendapat karena kemungkinan terjadi hubungan dua arah yang saling berkaitan apalagi jika studi dilakukan di negara yang mempunyai tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tinggi. studi ini mengungkap bahwa di negara berkembang khususnya indonesia, pertumbuhan ekonomi dan inflasi mempunyai hubungan dua arah yang saling berkaitan. kedua, dari hasil uji regresi, peneliti menentukan level inflasi dari 1 sampai 20 persen, hal ini dilakukan untuk melihat sejauh mana dan dititik mana inflasi sangat berpengaruh negatif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. hasil regresi mengungkapkan bahwa dari titik level inflasi 1 sampai 20 persen khususnya di negara indonesia tidak ditemukan bahwa inflasi memberikan pengaruh negatif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. hal ini sejalan dengan studi yang dilakukan bruno dan esterln yang mengungkapkan bahwa di negara berkembang, kemungkinan tabel 2. hasil uji kausalitas granger null hypothesis observations f-statistic probability hpdlogihk does not granger cause hpdloggdp 39 21,9614 7,5e-07 hpdloggdp does not granger cause hpdlogihk 39 11,8848 0,00012 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 1, april 2014: 71-77 76 terjadinya inflasi yang memberi pengaruh negatif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi terjadi pada level 40 persen. ketiga, dari hasil regresi juga kita dapat melihat bahwa laju pertumbuhan populasi di indonesia tidak memberi efek positif bagi pertumbuhan ekonomi. sedangkan untuk nilai realisasi investasi di indonesia menunjukkan sinyal positif bagi pertumbuhan ekonomi di indonesia. investor tertarik untuk menanamkan modalnya di indonesia (baik pma atau pmdn) karena pertumbuhan ekonomi indonesia menunjukkan angka yang tinggi khususnya di kawasan asia tenggara dan indonesia memiliki sumber daya alam yang sangat banyak sehingga dapat dikelola menjadi sumber bahan dasar bagi kemajuan teknologi. daftar pustaka basuki, a. t. (2003). dampak kenaikan tarif dasar listrik dan bbm terhadap fungsi inflasi di indonesia. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan vol. 4, no. 1. juli 2003: 1-13. blanchard, o. (2006). adjustment within the euro: the difficult case of portugal, mit economics working paper no. 06-04 (cambridge, massachusetts, massachusetts instituteof technology). available via the internet: http://econ-www.mit. edu/faculty/download_pdf.php?id=1295. also published in portuguese economic journal. february 2007. bruno, m and easterly, w. (1996). inflation and growth: in search of a stable relationship. review may/june 2005. federal reserve bank of st. louis. fischer, s. (1993). the role of macroeconomic factors in growth, working paper number 4565. cambridge: national bureau of economic research. hudiyanto. (2006). pengantar ekonomi pembangunan. yogyakarta: lppi. khan, m., (2005). inflation and growth in mcd countries. a note on inflation and growth in mcd countries (mk as). malik, g. and chowdury, a. (2001). inflation and economic growth: evidence from four south asian countries. asia-pacific development journal, volume 8, number 1. mankiw, n. g., quah, euston dan wilson, p., (2008). pengantar ekonomi makro edisi asia. jakarta selatan: penerbit salemba empat. mubarik, y. a. (2005). inflation and growth: an estimate of the threshold level of inflation in pakistan. sbp-research bulletin. volume 1. number 1, rahardja, p., (2004). teori ekonomi makro: suatu pengantar edisi ke-2, jakarta: lembaga penerbit fe ui. todaro, m. p. (2000). pembangunan ekonomi di dunia ketiga 2. alih bahasa oleh haris minandar. jakarta: penerbit erlangga. pertumbuhan ekonomi dan penentuan ...(mahrus lutfi adi kurniawan, nano prawoto) 77 lampiran tabel 3. hasil uji regresi model k c inf dt population investment 1 koefisien prob. 0,025938 0,0002 0,156266 0,0166 -0,000398 0,1850 -0,997535 0,1325 0,024035 0,0077 2 koefisien prob. 0,025604 0,0003 0,156860 0,0162 -0,000408 0,1784 -1,001384 0,1308 0,023982 0,0076 3 koefisien prob. 0,025711 0,0003 0,153711 0,0175 -0,000398 0,1959 -1,028214 0,1189 0,023573 0,0083 4 koefisien prob. 0,025831 0,0002 0,149182 0,0189 -0,000393 0,2151 -1,039773 0,1189 0,023266 0,0090 5 koefisien prob. 0,025874 0,0002 0,147142 0,0172 -0,000441 0,1551 -1,040579 0,1173 0,023224 0,0086 6 koefisien prob. 0,025976 0,0002 0,144789 0,0163 -0,000487 0,1551 -1,042241 0,1156 0,022733 0,0091 7 koefisien prob. 0,025998 0,0002 0,143604 0,0143 -0,000585 0,1035 -1,038530 0,1136 0,022730 0,0084 8 koefisien prob. 0,026061 0,0001 0,140552 0,0135 -0,000693 0,0658 -1,030655 0,1125 0,022681 0,0077 9 koefisien prob. 0,026141 0,0001 0,136428 0,0139 -0,000807 0,0423 -1,019711 0,1126 0,022641 0,0072 10 koefisien prob. 0,026258 0,0001 0,130298 0,0160 -0,000934 0,0260 -1,003151 0,1141 0,022611 0,0066 11 koefisien prob, 0,026321 0,0001 0,127112 0,0174 -0,001044 0,0199 -0,995018 0,1147 0,022572 0,0063 12 koefisien prob. 0,026373 0,0001 0,124696 0,0187 -0,001155 0,0165 -0,989320 0,1151 0,022511 0,0062 13 koefisien prob. 0,026404 0,0001 0,123271 0,0196 -0,001265 0,0151 -0,986127 0,1155 0,022470 0,0062 14 koefisien prob. 0,026404 0,0001 0,123271 0,0196 -0,001380 0,0151 -0,986127 0,1155 0,022470 0,0062 15 koefisien prob. 0,026404 0,0001 0,123271 0,0196 -0,001519 0,0151 -0,986127 0,1155 0,022470 0,0062 16 koefisien prob. 0,026404 0,0001 0,123271 0,0196 -0,001689 0,0151 -0,986127 0,1155 0,022470 0,0062 17 koefisien prob. 0,026404 0,0001 0,123271 0,0196 -0,001901 0,0151 -0,986127 0,1155 0,022470 0,0062 18 koefisien prob, 0,026404 0,0001 0,123271 0,0196 -0,002175 0,0151 -0,986127 0,1155 0,022470 0,0062 19 koefisien prob. 0,026404 0,0001 0,123271 0,0196 -0,002540 0,0151 -0,986127 0,1155 0,022470 0,0062 20 koefisien prob. 0,026404 0,0001 0,123271 0,0196 -0,003053 0,0151 -0,986127 0,1155 0,022470 0,0062 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 21 nomor 2, oktober 2020 article type: research paper flypaper effect analysis on regional expenditure in east java province, indonesia fauzan fikri1* m. pudjihardjo2, and rachmad kresna sakti3 abstract: the application of fiscal decentralization as an implementation of regional autonomy will have an effect on regional financial management. the current problem is that local governments are too dependent on the allocation of transfer funds from the central government to finance regional expenditures without optimizing the potential revenue they own. the condition that often occurs is when the allocation of transfer funds from the central government is obtained large, the local government will tend to try to maintain the amount of the transfer in the next period. this fact is what often leads to asymmetric behavior in local governments and waste in regional spending. therefore, this study aims to analyze the possibility of a flypaper effect on regional spending in the province of east java, indonesia. in this study, the independent variable is proxied by the general allocation fund (gaf), revenue sharing fund (rsf), and local government revenue (lgr). meanwhile, the dependent variable is proxied by regional expenditure. this study uses panel data regression analysis. the findings in this study generally show that from 38 districts / cities in east java province in 2011-2018, there was a flypaper effect. then other findings prove that gaf, rsf, and lgr have a significant and positive effect on regional expenditure. keywords: flypaper effect; gaf; rsf; lgr; regional expenditure jel classification: r5; h2; h27; h7; h71; h72 introduction regional governments are too dependent on allocating transfer funds from the central government to finance regional spending and development without optimizing its local government revenue (lgr). the problem that often occurs is that when the allocation of transfer funds from the central government is obtained, the regional government will keep the central government's transfer funds in nominal value for the next period. this fact often leads to asymmetric behavior in local governments as a statement from kuncoro (2011). lgr can only finance local government spending at a maximum of 20%. it means strengthening the indication of inefficiencies in transfer funds from the center, which can be seen from local government spending. added by ndadari and adi (2008), the comparison of the use of transfer funds from the central government (gaf and rsf) to local revenue (lgr) is still too high. based on the previous explanation, an essential step in implementing regional autonomy and fiscal decentralization is to calculate the potential of local government revenue (lgr) and increase regional fiscal capacity. affiliation: 1, 2,3 department of economics, faculty of economics and business, universitas brawijaya, malang, indonesia. *correspondence: fauzanfikri23@gmail.com this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.21.2.5045 citation: fikri, f., pudjihardjo, m., sakti, r. k. (2020). flypaper effect analysis on regional expenditure in east java province, indonesia. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 21(2), 249-257. article history received: 12 mar 2020 reviewed: 22 july 2020 revised: 14 oct 2020 accepted: 15 oct 2020 mailto:fauzanfikri23@gmail.com http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/8434 http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp fikri, pudjihardjo, & sakti flypaper effect analysis on regional expenditure in east java province, indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 250 referring to kuncoro's (2011) statement, lgr can only finance 20% of regional expenditure, which causes asymmetric behavior and inefficiencies in transfer funds. therefore, to analyze indications of inefficiency in allocating transfer funds from the central government, one can see from the response of regional government spending, which is generally known as "flypaper effect analysis." according to oates (1999), in oktavia (2014), the response of regional expenditure is more significant to transfer funds than local revenue (lgr), and there is a flypaper effect. he further explains that the flypaper effect is a condition in which the regional government responds more to regional spending originating from transfers (mostly unconditional transfers) than local government revenue (lgr) to result in waste in regional expenditures asymmetric behavior of regional governments. the flypaper effect is strongly suspected to occur in the province of east java, indonesia. the empirical findings are based on the still-dominant use of transfer funds to finance many east java regional expenditures, as seen in the table 1. table 1 realization of revenue and expenditure of east java province in 2018 (rupiah) account realization local government revenue (lgr) rp37,092,833,285,157,00 transfer funds rp71,560,586,476,023,00 other legal local revenue rp17,473,234,939,411,00 regional expenditure rp112,812,291,481,401,00 source: http://www.djpk.kemenkeu.go.id table 1 shows that the realization of lgr in east java in 2018 is smaller than the realization of transfer funds (balanced funds). realization of lgr is rp37,092,833,285,157.00 while the realization of transfer funds is rp71,560,586,476,023, and the realization of other legal income is rp17,473,234,939,411. furthermore, based on the data, the realization of regional expenditure is rp112,812,291,481,401. it implies that the amount of regional expenditure will be dominated by transfer funds (balance) because the transfer fund is higher than the lgr. this fact shows that development funding in east java still predominantly depends on transfer funds, which is likely to lead to asymmetrical behavior in local governments and ultimately can lead to inefficiencies in the transfer funds. this situation could indicate a flypaper effect on the management of regional expenditures sourced from transfer funds. based on several indications of the findings of the problems mentioned, this research is related to the topic "analysis of the flypaper effect on regional expenditures in the province of east java indonesia." this research's novelty lies in the research object, the year of research, solutions raised from empirical findings, and explanation of the flypaper effect on regional conditions. in connection with this title, the research begins by asking several questions such as (1) how do unconditional transfers (gaf and rsf) and local government revenue (lgr) affect regional expenditure in 38 districts/cities in east java?; (2) is there an effect of the flypaper on regional spending in 38 districts/cities in east java province? while this study aims to know how unconditional transfers and lgr on the fikri, pudjihardjo, & sakti flypaper effect analysis on regional expenditure in east java province, indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 251 regional expenditure effect and explore whether there is a flypaper effect on regional expenditure districts/cities in east java province. research method operationalization of variables definition in this study, the dependent variable used was the total realization of regional expenditures. regional expenditure is all the obligations of regencies/cities in the area of east java province recognized as a reduction in the value of net assets, namely the value of direct expenditure and indirect expenditure in the period of 2011 to 2018 in rupiah. data on regional expenditure realization came from the directorate general of fiscal balance of the ministry of finance of the republic of indonesia. while the independent variable in this study used local government revenue (lgr), general allocation funds (gaf), and revenue sharing funds (rsf). analysis model this research's analytical method was the quantitative analysis method, an analytical technique used to estimate parameters. data analysis was performed by statistically testing the collected variables. the analysis results are expected to determine the influence of several independent variables on the dependent variable. the econometric model was to determine the reciprocal relationship between theory formulation, testing, and empirical estimation. in econometric theory, panel data combines cross-section data (cross) and time-series data (time series). therefore, the amount of observational data in panel data is the product of time series observation data (t>1) with cross-section observation data (n>1). the basic model used in this research is as follows. reit = α + β1 gafit + β2 rsfit + β3 lgrit + €t remarks: reit : regional expenditure from region i in year t α : constant gafit : general allocation fund from region i in year t rsfit : revenue sharing fund from region i in year t lgrit : regional government revenue from the region i in year t β1, β2, β3 : regression coefficient € t : term error flypaper effect analysis the flypaper effect is a condition that occurs when local governments respond more to their regional expenditures from transfers/grants or specifically to unconditional transfers rather than using their abilities, proxied by local government revenue (lgr), resulting in waste in shopping areas. unconditional grants are proxied by the general allocation fund fikri, pudjihardjo, & sakti flypaper effect analysis on regional expenditure in east java province, indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 252 (gaf) and revenue sharing funds (rsf). analyzing the flypaper effect on district/city regional expenditure in east java province is from the comparison between the coefficient of transfer funds and the coefficient of local government revenue (lgr). if the fund transfer coefficient is greater than the lgr coefficient, there will be a flypaper effect. this statement is in line with several previous studies, for example, research from santoso, suparta, and saimul (2015). result and discussion chow test this test is used to determine which model is the most appropriate between cem and fem in the panel data estimation. the hypothesis in the chow test is as follows: h0: the model used is cem h1: the model used is fem the guidelines used for concluding the cow test are as follows: prob. chi-square cross-section ≥ 0.05 means that h0 is accepted prob. chi-square cross-section <0.05 means that h0 is rejected table 2 chow test results effects test statistic d.f. prob. cross-section f 2.299721 (37,263) 0.0001 cross-section chi-square 85.213063 37 0.0000 source: results of eviews10 the test results in table 2 come from the value of prob. chi-square cross-section of 0.0000 or less than 0.05, which means h0 is rejected. in this case, fem is more suitable as an estimation model compared to cem. the next step is to do the hausman test to get the best model. hausman test this test is to determine the most appropriate model used between rem and fem to estimate panel data. at the same time, the hypothesis in the hausman test is in the following. h0: the model used is rem h1: the model used is fem the guidelines used in concluding the hausman test are as follows: the random cross-section probability value ≥ 0.05 then h0 is accepted the random cross-section probability value < 0.05 then h0 is rejected fikri, pudjihardjo, & sakti flypaper effect analysis on regional expenditure in east java province, indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 253 table 3 hausman test results effects test chi-sq statistic chi-sq d.f. prob. cross-section random 16.665504 3 0.0008 source: results of eviews10 the test results in table 3 come from the value of prob. random cross-section of 0.0008 or less than 0.05, which means h0 is rejected. in conclusion, fem is considered more suitable than rem. based on this processor's results, the regression analysis model in the first stage of testing in this study is fem (fixed effect model). therefore, for the next step (lm test), it is not necessary. regression estimation results based on the model testing results in the previous discussion, fem (fixed effect model) was chosen as the most suitable model to use. the following are the results of the first stage regression estimation using eviews10. table 4 regression estimation results variable coefficient prob. (t-test) gaf 1.864781 0.0000 rsf 0.625683 0.0000 lgr 1.229391 0.0000 lgr -2.80e+11 0.0000 r-squared = 0.980333 prob. (f test) = 0.000000 regression estimation results from 38 districts/cities in east java province shows an rsquared value of 0.980333. this result means that the independent variable consisting of gaf (general allocation fund), rsf (revenue sharing fund), and lgr (local government revenue) can explain the variance of the dependent variable namely regional expenditure of 98%, while the remaining 2% is explained by variables which were not examined in this study. f test results obtained a probability value of 0.000000, and the value is smaller than the level α = 5% (0.05). it means that simultaneously, the independent variables consisting of gaf, rsf, and lgr significantly affect the independent variable in regional expenditure in 38 districts/city of east java province. as for the partial t-test results, all independent variables significantly affect the dependent variable (regional expenditures) with the probability value of each independent variable consisting of gaf, rsf, and lgr of 0.0000, and the value is less than α = 5% (0.05). the coefficient value of each independent variable has a different magnitude of coefficient values. for example, the gaf variable with a coefficient value of 1.864781 means the positive influence of the gaf on regional expenditure. if assumed that the other variable is zero (0), for every increase of one million rupiah (rp1,000,000) at the gaf, the regional expenditure will increase by rp1,864,781. then, the rsf variable coefficient value of 0.625683 means that the rsf variable positively influences regional expenditure. if fikri, pudjihardjo, & sakti flypaper effect analysis on regional expenditure in east java province, indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 254 assumed that the other independent variable has a value of zero (0), then every increase of one million rupiah (rp1,000,000) to the gaf will increase regional expenditures by rp625,683. while the lgr variable shows a coefficient value of 1.229391, the lgr variable positively influences regional expenditure. if the other variables' coefficient value is zero (0), an increase in the lgr variable of one million rupiah (rp1,000,000) will increase regional expenditures by rp1,229,391. based on the explanation, an equation can be written as follows: reit = 1.864781gafit + 0.625683rsfit + 1.229391lgrit + €t the equation is data processing from all 38 districts/cities in the province of east java, indonesia. the influence of the unconditional grants variable, gaf (1.864781), is higher than the lgr variable (1.229391). then, in the partial t-test, the gaf variable significantly affects the regional expenditure variable. so, there is a flypaper effect in the districts/cities in the province of east java, indonesia, proved by how the gaf coefficient is higher than the lgr. discussion of research results the flypaper effect was first put forward by mieszkowski, and oakland (1979) to articulate the thought of arthur okun (1930) who stated that "money sticks where it hits". the occurrence of flypaper effects in regencies/cities in east java province is in line with the theory of "money sticks where it hits." the transferred fund only moves from the central government to the regional government without impacting and achieving the transfer fund's actual purpose. the transfer funds should stimulate private investment and the regional economy through regional spending to create fiscal potential (levies, taxes, dividends, etc.). the method of determining the flypaper effect in this study is to compare the two coefficients of the independent variables. the independent variables are the unconditional transfer variable (gaf and rsf), as well as the local government revenue (lgr) variable. flypaper effect occurs when the coefficient value of the unconditional transfer variable is greater than the coefficient value of the lgr variable and both have a positive and significant relationship. this means that if the coefficient value of the independent variables is greater than the others, it can be interpreted as a high level of contribution of these variables to the dependent variable. another way to detect the flypaper effect can also be seen from the lgr variable. if the lgr variable is insignificant and not positive for regional expenditure, it can indicate a flypaper effect in local government (cárdenas & sharma, 2015). the magnitude of the influence of lgr in regional expenditure financing explains the level of financial independence of a region. regions with high lgr rates should not rely on transfer funds from the center. however, based on empirical findings in this study, this did not happen. therefore, it is suspected that there are indications of asymmetrical behavior from officials in the government. the situation that occurs is related to the fiscal illusion fikri, pudjihardjo, & sakti flypaper effect analysis on regional expenditure in east java province, indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 255 case studied by dollery and worthington (1996). the two researchers emphasized that various forms of income must provide benefits in the form of increased service activities which in turn are expected to increase regional revenues. however, if the reality is the opposite, then this situation can indicate a fiscal illusion. furthermore, the occurrence of deviations from what it should be in the financial transfer relationship between the central government and the regions is usually called the flypaper effect. if there is a deviation because the increase in expenditure is greater than local taxes in response to a transfer, it is called the physical replacement effect (hines & thaler, 1995). other causes of this study's results are obstacles to fiscal decentralization, characterized by low lgr and high regional dependence on the central government in the form of transfer funds. as explained by setyono (2011) is as follows. 1. regional owned enterprises (bumd) 's contribution is still weak for lgr caused by several problems, such as tax regulations from the government that does not favor the bumd. then, determining product prices that are not profit-oriented because the purpose of bumd is broad public service—hampering factors of production due to increasingly difficult to reach and human resources that do not meet the qualifications. 2. the high degree of fiscal decentralization in taxation, so that local governments will find it difficult to maximize their local revenue (lgr) because the central government still manages the potentially large taxes. the flypaper effect will have implications in the form of an increase in regional expenditure that is greater than the receipt of the transfer itself, and there is a tendency to expect assistance from the central government compared to optimizing the original revenue of the region. based on the causes of the flypaper effect, fiscal decentralization in east java province must still be optimized, especially from regional own-source revenue (lgr). according to khusaini (2010), the way to increase regional revenue is to expand the regional revenue base by doing the following. 1. identifying tax payments and a new rate of tax, then put it in the tax net 2. increasing the tax object database 3. improving valuation (revaluation of tax objects) 4. calculating the reception capacity more rationally for each type of levy besides, according to the theory of regional autonomy and fiscal decentralization, the fiscal sector in regional finance can be divided into two (management of regional revenue and management of regional expenditure). both of these components determine a regional government's position in the context of implementing regional autonomy (sudirman, 2011). therefore, the regional government must further improve the regional revenue and expenditure management system. fikri, pudjihardjo, & sakti flypaper effect analysis on regional expenditure in east java province, indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 256 conclusion the purpose of the study is to find out how the influence of unconditional grants (gaf and rsf) on regional expenditure and the possibility of a flypaper effect. this chapter will describe some conclusions from the results of tests and analyses, as follows (1) based on the results of the discussion, in general, from 38 districts/cities in east java province, indonesia, the gaf (general allocation fund), rsf (revenue sharing funds), and lgr (local government revenue) had a positive contribution to regional expenditure. (2) based on the results of discussions from all 38 regencies/cities in east java province, indonesia, the flypaper effect proved the dominant influence of unconditional grants (gaf) on regional expenditure compared to local government revenue (lgr). based on the results of the discussion, some suggestions as recommendations from this study are as follows: (1) local governments should improve their local financial management systems. changing the traditional budgeting system into an entrepreneurial government aims to focus more on the decentralization of revenue than the expenditure. whereas in the budgeting system, it is better to use performance budgeting as high as an indicator of success, achieving the desired output and precise outcomes. (2) as a related party, the government must optimize and further explore revenue potential by intensifying and extending income sources such as industry, agro-industry, tourism, etc. (3) in this case, the regional government needs to prioritize capital expenditure allocation compared to other expenditures to improve the economy. so that the region is not too dependent on funds transfer from the center. (4) subsequent research can develop other variables outside the model, such as silpa, and add the flypaper phenomenon's effect on regional economic growth. references cárdenas, o.j. & sharma, a. (2011). mexican municipalities and the flypaper effect. public budgeting & finance, 31, 73-93. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5850.2011.00990.x dollery, b.e. & worthington, a.c. (1996). the empirical analysis of fiscal illusion. journal of economic surveys,10(1), 261–298. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.14676419.1996.tb00014.x hines, j.r. & thaler. r. h. (1995). anomalies – the flypaper effect. journal of economic perspectives, 9(4): 217-226. retrieved from https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdf/10.1257/jep.9.4.217 khusaini, m. (2006). ekonomi publik desentralisasi fiskal dan pembangunan daerah. malang: bpfe universitas brawijaya. kuncoro, h. (2011). pengaruh transfer antar pemerintah pada kinerja fiskal pemerintah daerah kota dan kabupaten di indonesia. jurnal ekonomi pembangunan, 9(1), 47-63. https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.v9i1.624 mieszkowski, p., & oakland, w. h. (1979). fiscal federalism and grants-in-aid. urban institute. ndadari, l. w., & adi, p. h. (2008). perilaku asimetris pemerintah daerah terhadap transfer pemerintah pusat. the 2nd national conference universitas katolik widya mandala surabaya (ukwms), 6 september 2008, surabaya. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5850.2011.00990.x https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-6419.1996.tb00014.x https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-6419.1996.tb00014.x https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdf/10.1257/jep.9.4.217 https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.v9i1.624 fikri, pudjihardjo, & sakti flypaper effect analysis on regional expenditure in east java province, indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 257 oates, w. e. (1999). an easy of fiscal federalism. journal of economic literature, 37(3), 11201149. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.37.3.1120 oktavia, d. (2014). flypaper effect:fenomena serial waktu dan lintas kabupaten kota di jawa timur 2003-2013. jurnal akuntansi universitas jember, 12(12), 1-16. https://doi.org/10.19184/jauj.v12i2.1407 santoso, i, suparta, i. w., & dan saimul. (2015). flypaper effect pada pengelolaan keuangan daerah di provinsi lampung. jurnal ekonomi pembangunan, 4(2), 135-166. retrieved from http://feb.unila.ac.id/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/jep-volume-4-no-2-juli2015.pdf setyono, n. (2011). analisis pengaruh dana alokasi umum (dau) dan pendapatan asli daerah (pad) terhadap belanja daerah pada kabupaten/kota di jawa timur tahun 2008 dan 2009. skripsi. malang, universitas brawijaya. sudirman, i. w. (2011). kebijakan fiskal dan moneter:teori dan empirikal. jakarta, prenada media. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.37.3.1120 https://doi.org/10.19184/jauj.v12i2.1407 http://feb.unila.ac.id/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/jep-volume-4-no-2-juli-2015.pdf http://feb.unila.ac.id/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/jep-volume-4-no-2-juli-2015.pdf jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 22 nomor 1, april 2021 article type: research paper achieving sustainable tourism through payment for ecosystem service (pes) program: case study of marine tourism in gili matra indonesia diswandi1*, luluk fadliyanti1, mansur afifi1, and hailuddin1 abstract: harmonization of tourism and conservation activities can be used to achieve sustainable tourism. regarding this matter, the payment for ecosystem services (pes) program could be a promising solution to be implemented. by considering marine tourism in gili matra, lombok, this study applied quantitative research method to analyzed the possibility of sustainable tourism development through the pes scheme for harmonizing marine tourism and preserve coral reefs. data was collected thorugh survey to 100 international tourists that were selected randomly. using the contingent valuation method (cvm), this study found that international tourists were willing to pay an average of usd 21.46 per visit to contribute to the pes program to sustain the existence of coral reefs and other marine biotas as ecosystem services provided by gili matra. the tourists’ educational and income levels influenced their willingness to pay. keywords: coral reef; conservation; willingness to pay; contingent valuation method; environmental awareness jel classification: o13, q56, q57, p28 introduction the north lombok regency in west nusa tenggara province (ntb) has a very strategic position concerning the development of the tourism sector with the gili matra region's existence, which consists of a group of small islands: gili air, gili meno, and gili trawangan. the relatively increasing number of visits to gili matra has an impact on the increasing availability of hotels, accommodation, and other infrastructure, which, in turn, can have a negative impact on the environmental capacity, both on land and at sea (abeyratne, 1999; burger, 2000; giannoni & maupertuis, 2007). as saptutyningsih (2004) also mentioned, tourism may lead not only to a positive impact on the economy but also a negative impact on the environment, especially regarding the land carrying capacity. the biggest feature of gili matra's tourist attractions is the marine park's beauty, including coral reefs and the marine life that surrounds it. marine tourism activities promoted place more emphasis on economic aspects, in which tourism activities are highlighted to have a maximum positive economic impact. affiliation: 1 department of economics, faculty of economics and business, universitas mataram, west nusa tenggara, indonesia *correspondence: diswandi@unram.ac.id this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v22i1.11083 citation: diswandi, d., fadliyanti, l., afifi, m., & hailuddin, h. (2021). achieving sustainable tourism through payment for ecosystem service (pes) program: case study of marine tourism in gili matra indonesia. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 22(1), 12-20. article history received: 05 feb 2021 revised: 20 mar 2021 accepted: 05 apr 2021 https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorid=57192651698 https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=4n8c-isaaaaj&hl=en https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorid=56800207600 https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?user=_f2nofcaaaaj&hl=en http://fe.unram.ac.id/ilmu-ekonomi-dan-pembangunan/ http://fe.unram.ac.id/ilmu-ekonomi-dan-pembangunan/ http://fe.unram.ac.id/ilmu-ekonomi-dan-pembangunan/ http://fe.unram.ac.id/ilmu-ekonomi-dan-pembangunan/ mailto:diswandi@unram.ac.id http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/11083 https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v22i1.11083&domain=pdf diswandi, fadliyanti, afifi, & hailuddin achieving sustainable tourism through payment for ecosystem service (pes) program … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 13 at the same time, the conservation aspect is not given enough attention so that the condition of coral reefs and other marine biotas, which are the main tourist attractions, continues to deteriorate. if this continues, marine parks in the region will no longer be attractive in the long run and will have a negative impact on the tourism sector due to the reduced number of tourists visiting the area. the next impact is that economic growth, which previously depended on the tourism sector, will experience a slump (giannoni & maupertuis, 2007). in order to prevent this from happening, efforts are needed to harmonize tourism and conservation activities (budowski, 1976). in this case, gili matra's tourism activities need to be aligned with conservation efforts, including the conservation of coral reefs. one potential effort to be made is the payment for ecosystem services (pes) program (barr & mourato, 2009). payment for ecosystem services (pes) is defined as a voluntary transaction, in which clearly identified ecosystem services are purchased by at least one environmental service buyer from at least one environmental service provider in a condition that the provider continues to conserve the associated resources to ensure the ecosystem services’ sustainability (sunderlin et al., 2005; wunder, 2007). associated with the concept of pes, tourism businesses and tourists are on the demand side, which acts as 'buyers' of ecosystem services, should pay a certain amount for the cost of preserving coral reefs and other marine biotas. on the supply side, related institutions, such as the ministry of maritime affairs and fisheries or local fishermen community, may act as 'sellers' of the ecosystem services. the funds collected from the payment of ecosystem services are then directed to local communities' conservation activities and empowerment. research on pes programs' contributions to sustainable natural resource management and community empowerment has been conducted in various countries. for example, bremer et al. (2014) found that pes programs in ecuador contributed positively to community empowerment and sustainable natural resource management. in vietman, suhardiman et al. (2013) revealed that pes might contribute to better natural resource management if the competitive market exists or the government is involved in designing and enforcing the regulation. mangubhai et al. (2020) recommend that marine conservation agreement in fiji, which is similar to pes, can contribute to protecting marine resources that can be achieved through strict monitoring and enforcement of the agreement. research conducted in raja ampat indonesia by atmodjo, lamers and mol (2017) suggests that there was no apparent impact of the pes scheme on the ecosystem services provision in the region due to the lack of clearly defined ecosystem services. research conducted by allendorf and yang (2013) in china showed that an understanding of ecosystem service could be the basis for harmonizing the relationship between people's economic livelihoods and environmental conservation. nevertheless, the research focused more on raising the awareness of related parties and did not formulate activities to harmonize economic activities and conservation. meanwhile, schuhmann et al. (2013) analyzed the scuba divers' willingness to pay for marine biodiversity in barbados, the caribbean island. they uncovered a potency for marine biota conservation diswandi, fadliyanti, afifi, & hailuddin achieving sustainable tourism through payment for ecosystem service (pes) program … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 14 through the economic benefits of dive tourism activities in the area. however, this study did not recommend a scheme to balance tourism activity with the conservation of coral reefs and marine biota. research that examines the scheme of harmonization of tourism and conservation activities is still lacking and remains a gap in the literature. thus, to fill the literature gap, this study aimed to analyze the potential for harmonization of marine tourism activities and marine conservation, in this case, coral reefs, through the pes scheme. the creation of a pes system is expected to contribute positively to marine resources' sustainability, including coral reefs as a major tourist attraction in gili matra and local communities' empowerment to create sustainable tourism activities. by taking the gili matra area as a case study, it is expected that this study can suggest a policy that can be applied in other similar marine tourism locations to create a harmonious relationship between tourism, conservation, and the empowerment of local communities. research method this study employed a quantitative method. data for this study were collected through a survey of 100 international tourists in gili matra selected randomly. the survey collected information on tourists’ opinions about the state of coral reefs' benefit for humans and the respondents themselves. then, the survey sought tourist willingness to pay (wtp) for coral reefs conservation. the maximum wtp of tourists for coral conservation was modeled and elicited through a contingent valuation method (cvm) (bateman & turner, 1992). this method uses survey techniques to find out how much the value of environmental good and service for individuals or society. in this survey, the cv (contingent valuation) questions provide a hypothetical scenario that the local government would charge every tourist a certain amount of money used explicitly for coral conservation. a bidding game technique (calia & strazzera, 1999) was used to capture the maximum amount of money that tourists were willing to contribute to the sustainability of the coral reefs ecosystem. this study also identified factors influencing the amount of wtp of the tourist. for this purpose, an econometric model was developed as follows: wtpi* = βxi + i where β is a vector of the slope parameter, and xi is an observation vector on the independent variable for individual i. the error term () is assumed to be a normally distributed random variable with an average of zero. the respondents' wtp was hypothesized to be influenced by several independent variables: education, income, gender, and previous visit. a stepwise regression technique was utilized to find the best model that could further be used for analysis. diswandi, fadliyanti, afifi, & hailuddin achieving sustainable tourism through payment for ecosystem service (pes) program … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 15 result and discussion respondents’ characteristics gender one hundred international tourists were randomly selected as respondents of this study. among them, 53% were female, and 47% were male. figure 1 gender education education was measured by the length of school (years) taken by the respondents. out of the hundred respondents, most of them (37%) have studied for 16-20 years or with the highest-level equivalent to senior high school. in the second place, 31% of respondents were educated over 20 years. meanwhile, the respondents' lowest education level was 612 years, with 12%. figure 2 education income the respondents’ income was proxied from their expenditure. it was done because income is personal and confidential data for most westerners. to produce valid and diswandi, fadliyanti, afifi, & hailuddin achieving sustainable tourism through payment for ecosystem service (pes) program … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 16 unbiased income data, a proxy was employed using the expenditure variable. based on the expenditure level, respondents were divided into four groups: (1) less than 1,000 usd; (2) 1,000 2,000 usd; (3) 2,000 3,000 usd; (4) more than 3,000 usd. of the hundred respondents, the majority had monthly expenditures of between 1,000 2,000 usd, with a percentage of 42%. meanwhile, the smallest group of respondents had a monthly expenditure of 2,000 3,000 usd, with 8%. origin of respondents in this study, most respondents came from germany with a percentage of 14% and britain with 12%. in the third place, most respondents were from france with a percentage of 11%. meanwhile, in the fourth place, most respondents came from australia and america with 8% each. other respondents came from various countries in the world. figure 3 origin of respondents previous visit of the one hundred respondents, 52% were tourists who had previously come to gili matra. meanwhile, 48% of respondents were tourists who visited gili matra for the first time. tourists who had visited gili matra before, the majority had visited 1-3 times with a percentage of 66%. meanwhile, 20.83% of them had visited 4-6 times. only 12.5% of these tourists had the frequency of previous visits more than six times. figure 4 previous visit diswandi, fadliyanti, afifi, & hailuddin achieving sustainable tourism through payment for ecosystem service (pes) program … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 17 willingness to pay by tourists for the conservation of coral reefs the survey results using the contingent valuation method (cvm) showed that the average willingness to pay (wtp) of international tourists for ecosystem service fees or coral reef conservation funds on gili matra was usd 21.46 per visit. the lowest wtp was zero usd, meaning that tourists did not want to pay for ecosystem services or funds for coral reef conservation. meanwhile, the highest wtp was 200 usd per visit. most respondents (20% of them) were willing to pay 5 usd. based on this result, this study argues that there is a potency to harmonize tourism and natural resource conservation. this finding is in line with schuhmann et al. (2013) and mangubhai et al. (2020). for effective pes implementation, a clear definition of the ecosystem services is needed, as allendorf and yang (2013) mentioned. thus, the unclear impact on nature conservation found by atmodjo et al. (2017) can be avoided. this study also supports suhardiman et al. (2013), considering the government's involvement in regulating the pes program. however, not all respondents in this study agreed with the pes contribution. about 12% stated they did not want to contribute. they put forward several reasons, including that repairing coral reefs is the indonesian state's responsibility. besides, they did not believe if the money collected would be used properly. several other respondents did not want to contribute but gave no reason. some factors influenced the respondents’ wtp. this matter is discussed in the following paragraphs. as mentioned in the method section, the econometrics model in this study was run using the stepwise regression technique to find the best model that could be used for analysis. it was a model that all the independent variables significantly influenced the dependent variable. it resulted in three models, as exhibited in table 1. table 1 regression estimation coefficient variable model 1 model 2 model 3 betta t statistic betta t statistic betta t statistic constant 36,741 2,755* 36,562 2,761* 31,295 2,436* education -6,338 -2,124* -6,428 -2,188* -6,077 -2,063* income 7,501 2,403* 7.482 2,410* 7,396 2,367* gender -8,626 -1,480 -8.661 -1,494 previous visit -1.208 -0,206 f-statistics 2,897* 3,888* 4,656* adj r2 0,071 0,080 0,069 * significance at α 5% source: data processed. table 1 presents the effects of independent variables on the amount of money that respondents were willing to pay for coral reef conservation. the estimated regression coefficient showed the marginal impact of the independent variable on the amount of money that was willing to be paid by respondents. diswandi, fadliyanti, afifi, & hailuddin achieving sustainable tourism through payment for ecosystem service (pes) program … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 18 the stepwise regression resulted in three models in this study, as presented in table 1, namely: model 1: wtp = f (education, income, gender, previous visit) model 2: wtp = f (education, income, gender) model 3: wtp = f (education, income) from the three models, it was found that the third model produced the best-estimated value. only two of the estimated coefficients, namely education and income, significantly affected the wtp at a significance level of 95%. it signified that these variables significantly affected the amount of money that respondents were willing to pay for coral reef conservation through ecosystem service fees. respondents' income had a positive and significant impact on the amount of wtp. respondents with high incomes tended to have a higher wtp value. an increase in income by 1% would increase wtp by 7.39%, ceteris paribus. this finding reflects someone’s level of environmental awareness, supporting altin et al. (2014) and duroy (2005), who argue that when family income increase, the level of environmental awareness also increases. however, this study contrast with jacobsen and hanley (2008), who state that the rise of income will be followed by lower wtp for environmental conservation. the education coefficient sign was negative, indicating that the higher the respondents' education, the lower their willingness to pay for ecosystem service fees. a one-year increase in respondent’s education would reduce his/her wtp by 6.07%, ceteris paribus. these estimation results contradict the expectation that people with high education levels are more aware of environmental conditions and are thus more willing to contribute to conservation efforts. this finding also contrasts with aminrad, zakaria and hadi (2011) and altin et al. (2014), who found increasing education level would increase someone’s environmental awareness level. meanwhile, the tourist’s previous visits to the tourism destination and gender did not affect tourists' willingness to contribute to the payment of ecosystem service fees. this finding does not corroborate with altin et al. (2014), who argue that women have better environmental awareness than men. this study contributes to the literature on sustainable tourism. it can reference sustainable tourism in the small island through pes application that considers international tourists on the demand side. conclusion this study found a potency to balance tourism and coral reefs conservation in gili matra, lombok. this argument comes from the fact that international tourists are willing to contribute to coral reef conservation by allocating cash during their visit. this study found that international tourists who came to gili matra were willing to pay an average of 21.46 usd per visit. this amount of wtp was influenced by the respondents’ income and diswandi, fadliyanti, afifi, & hailuddin achieving sustainable tourism through payment for ecosystem service (pes) program … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 19 education. high-income people tended to pay more than those who had less income. ironically, people with better education tended to pay less than those with lower education. this study also concluded that gender and the tourist’s previous visit to a tourism destination did not influence their willingness to conserve the related environment. considering that there is a willingness to pay from tourists for coral reef conservation, this study recommends that a payment for ecosystem services (pes) program is possible to be developed on gili matra to promote the sustainable tourism industry. this study is not perfect, however. the number of sample are only 100 people which is relatively small. thus, further study that accommodate larger sample is recommended. references abeyratne, r. i. r. 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inflasi di indonesia: seleksi model ekonometrika imamudin yuliadi fakultas ekonomi, universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta, jalan lingkar selatan, bantul, yogyakarta 55183 indonesia, phone +62 274 387656 e-mail korespondensi: imamudin2006@yahoo.co.id naskah diterima: agustus 2012; disetujui: februari 2013 abstract: inflation impact on macroeconomic performance such as the exchange rate, economic growth, interest rates, exports, imports, wages and the price index of stocks and securities in the capital markets. to get an idea relevant to the topics raised in this study then formulated the research model on inflation and its implications on the fundamentals of the indonesian economy with multiple equation model approach, semi logarithm, error correction model (ecm), and multiple equations, partial adjustment model (pam), this phenomenon shows that the increase in the level of sbi will increase the efficiency of the financial sector to further boost the amount of lending and reduce the amount of bad loans. while the value of the variable regression on the amount of currency in circulation amounted -132.7688 means that if the amount of currency in circulation rose one percent will push down inflation of -132.76 percent. circumstances indicate that the increase in the amount of currency will encourage the real sector to absorb the amount of money circulating in the economy such as the increase in consumption, investment, production, etc., thereby decreasing the rate of inflation. keywords: demand pull inflation; cost push inflation; economic distortions; exchange rate jel classification: e31, e52, c1 abstrak: inflasi berdampak terhadap kinerja ekonomi makro lainnya seperti nilai tukar rupiah (kurs), pertumbuhan ekonomi, tingkat bunga, ekspor, impor, tingkat upah dan indeks harga saham dan surat berharga di pasar modal. dalam studi ini dirumuskan model penelitian mengenai inflasi dan implikasinya pada fundamental perekonomian indonesia dengan menggunakan model pendekatan persamaan berganda, semi logaritma, error correction model (ecm), dan persamaan berganda, partial adjustment model (pam). fenomena ini menunjukkan bahwa kenaikan tingkat sbi akan meningkatkan efisiensi sektor keuangan untuk lebih mendorong peningkatan jumlah penyaluran kredit dan mengurangi jumlah kredit macet. sedangkan nilai regresi pada variabel jumlah uang kartal beredar sebesar –132,7688 artinya apabila jumlah uang kartal beredar naik satu persen akan mendorong penurunan inflasi sebesar -132,76 persen. keadaan menunjukkan bahwa kenaikan jumlah uang kartal akan mendorong sektor riil untuk menyerap jumlah uang beredar dalam kegiatan ekonomi seperti peningkatan konsumsi, investasi, produksi, dan sebagainya, sehingga akan menurunkan tingkat inflasi. kata kunci: demand pull inflation; cost push inflation; distorsi ekonomi; kurs mata uang klasifikasi jel: e31, e52, c1 pendahuluan inflasi merupakan variabel makro ekonomi yang mengindikasikan adanya dinamika dalam perekonomian secara keseluruhan. fenomena inflasi mengindikasikan adanya perubahan dan pertumbuhan dalam perekonomian baik secara mikro maupun makro yang berpengaruh terhadap kinerja ekonomi lainnya. inflasi dapat didefinisikan dengan kenaikan harga barang secara umum dan terus menerus artinya bahwa fenomena kenaikan harga barang terjadi hampir pada sebagian besar barang-barang di pasar serta terjadi dalam kurun waktu yang relatif inflasi di indonesia : seleksi model ekonometrika (imamudin yuliadi) 27 lama. sehingga jika kenaikan harga hanya terjadi pada satu atau beberapa jenis barang saja dan dalam waktu singkat maka tidak bisa dikatakan inflasi. inflasi juga mengindikasikan adanya mismatching dalam sektor keuangan dimana mekanisme transmisi dari sektor keuangan dan sektor riil masih terdapat banyak kendala sehingga dana yang terkumpul pada sektor keuangan seperti perbankan, lembaga keuangan dan pasar modal tidak dapat terserap secara maksimal untuk menggerakkan sektor riil. tingginya tingkat bunga mengindikasikan adanya inefisiensi dalam mekanisme pengelolaan sektor keuangan sehingga berdampak pada peningkatan biaya modal (cost of funds) sehingga berpotensi meningkatkan inflasi. tabel 1 mengungkapkan perkembangan inflasi dan beberapa indikator makroekonomi lainnya dalam beberapa tahun terakhir di indonesia: data dalam tabel 1 menunjukkan bahwa pertumbuhan pdb menunjukkan kecenderungan yang stabil di mana dari tahun 2010 sampai 2012 rata-rata mencapai 6 persen yang artinya ada peningkatan kinerja ekonomi secara makro. peningkatan pertumbuhan ekonomi bannyak ditopang oleh komponen pengeluaran rumah tangga dan pengeluaran pemerintah dengan pertumbuhan konsumsi rumah tangga sekitar 4-5 persen. demikian juga untuk pembentukan modal tunai bruto (pmtb) menunjukkan kecenderungan terus meningkat dengan pertumbuhan sekitar 8 persen. posisi perekonomian indonesia dalam konteks perekonomian dunia dapat dilihat dalam neraca pembayaran internasional (npi) sebagaimana tampak pada tabel 2. neraca pembayaran internasional menunjukkan posisi keuangan suatu negara terhadap negara lainnya menyangkut hak dan kewajiban sebagai implikasi dari transaksi ekonomi antar negara. data neraca pembayaran internasional indonesia di atas menunjukkan bahwa adanya fluktuasi fundamental perekonomian indonesia. posisi neraca transaksi berjalan (current account) menunjukkah kecenderungan adanya tekanan yang semakin meningkat di mana mengalami defisit sebesar 28.450 juta us$ pada tahun 2013 dari sebelumnya defisit sebesar 24.418 juta us$. kondisi ini ditimbulkan karena semakin merosotnya nilai ekspor pada neraca perdagangan serta terus meningkatnya kebutuhan barang impor. ekspor barang indonesia pada tahun 2013 sebesar 183.548 juta us$ menurun dari sebelumnya pada tahun 2012 sebesar 188.496 juta us$. fenomena inflasi pada suatu perekonomian merupakan kombinasi dari aspek keseimbangan pada pasar barang, pasar uang dan pasar tenaga kerja. inflasi yang ditimbulkan pada pasar barang disebabkan oleh adanya distorsi terhadap arus produksi dan distribusi barang dari sektor produksi ke pasar sehingga menimbulkan peningkatan biaya produksi yang kemudian memicu kenaikan harga atau inflasi. inflasi juga bisa dipicu oleh kenaikan harga bahan bakar minyak (bbm) yang berakibat kenaikan biaya produksi yang kemudian akan meningkatkan harga barang. dampak yang ditimbulkan dari inflasi yang ditimbulkan dari dorongan biaya produksi terhadap perekonomian di samping kenaikan harga juga mengakibatkan penurunan tingkat tabel 1. indikator makroekonomi perekonomian indonesia (%, per tahun) indikator ekonomi tahun 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 produk domestik bruto 4,6 6,2 6,5 6,2 5,8 konsumsi rt 4,9 4,7 4,7 5,3 5,3 konsumsi pemerintah 15,7 0,3 3,2 1,2 4,9 pmtb 3,3 8,5 8,8 9,8 4,7 ekspor -9,7 15,3 13,6 2,0 5,3 impor -15 17,3 13,3 6,6 1,2 inflasi 2,8 7,0 3,8 4,3 8,4 inti 4,3 4,3 4,3 4,4 5,0 diatur pemerintah -3,3 5,4 2,8 2,7 16,7 bergejolak 3,9 17,7 3,4 5,7 11,8 sumber: bank indonesia, 2014 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 1, april 2013: 26-34 28 pendapatan nasional atau perekonomian mengalami kontraksi. hal ini terlihat pada kurva di atas fenomena inflasi karena dorongan biaya produksi juga terjadi manakala komponen produksi ada yang diimpor sementara nilai kurs mengalami depresiasi sehingga mengakibatkan kenaikan biaya produksi sebagai akibat kenaikan biaya produksi dari barang yang diimpor. kejadian inflasi seperti juga disebut dengan inflasi dari pengaruh impor barang (imported inflation). inflasi juga bisa ditimbulkan karena kenaikan permintaan agregat (agregate demand) suatu barang seperti yang terjadi pada setiap menjelang hari raya untuk permintaan barangbarang kebutuhan pokok. pada tulisan ini akan dibahas bagaimana hubungan antara besarnya pendapatan nasional (pdb), suku bunga sertifikat bank indonesia (sbi), nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dollar as (kurs), dan jumlah uang beredar (uang kartal) terhadap inflasi dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang dengan menggunakan model ekononometrika partial ajustment model (pam) dan error correction model (ecm). metode penelitian inflasi merupakan fenomena ekonomi yang multi aspek artinya bahwa yang inflasi dipengaruhi oleh faktor-faktor ekonomi dan non ekonomi. penjelasan mengenai latar belakang masalah dan didukung oleh kajian baik secara teoritis maupun empiris, maka dapat disusun suatu diagram alur kerangka pemikiran penelitian seperti pada gambar 1. kerangka penelitian pada gambar 1 juga juga menjelaskan mengenai bagaimana inflasi dipengaruhi oleh faktor-faktor non ekonomi seperti stabilitas sosial dan politik, resiko dan ekspektasi pasar. di samping itu inflasi juga dipengaruhi faktor-faktor ekonomi seperti nilai fundamental ekonomi seperti posisi neraca transaksi berjalan, tingkat inflasi, jumlah hutang luar negeri dan rasio tingkat bunga domestik terhadap tingkat bunga internasional. inflasi juga dipengaruhi oleh kebijakan ekonomi pemerintah baik menyangkut kebijakan moneter, fiskal maupun kebijakan nilai tukar. kemudian pada sisi lain inflasi juga berpengaruh terhadap pasar barang yaitu menentukan jumlah dan volume ekspor serta impor. juga berpengaruh terhadap pasar uang melalui keputusan masyarakat dalam memegang jenis dan jumlah mata uang. inflasi juga berpengaruh terhadap posisi neraca pembayaran melalui kinerja neraca transaksi berjalan dan arah serta jumlah aliran modal (capital flow). dalam studi ini dirumuskan model penelitian mengenai inflasi dan implikasinya pada fundamental perekonomian indonesia dengan menggunakan model pendekatan regresi berganda, semi logaritma, error correction model (ecm), dan partial adjustment model (pam). tabel 2. neraca pembayaran internasional indonesia (juta $ as) indikator ekonomi tahun 2009 2010 2011 1012 2013 transaksi berjalan 10.628 5.144 1.685 -24.418 -28.450 ekspor barang 119.646 158.074 200.788 188.496 183.548 impor barang -88.714 -127.447 -166.005 -179.878 -177.399 jasa + pendapatan + transfer -20.303 -25.484 -33.097 -33.036 -34.599 transaksi modal dan finansial 4.852 26.620 13.567 24.896 22.731 investasi langsung 2.628 11.106 11.528 13.716 14.767 investasi portfolio 10.336 13.202 3.806 9.206 9.848 investasi lainnya -8.208 2.262 -1.801 1.922 -1.906 overall balance 12.506 30.285 11.857 215 -7.325 posisi cadangan devisa 66.105 96.207 110.123 112.781 99.387 dalam bulan impor dan pembayaran utang luar negeri pemerintah 6,5 7,4 6,5 6,1 5,5 transaksi berjalan (% pdb) 2,0 0,7 0,2 -2,8 -3,3 sumber: bank indonesia, 2014 inflasi di indonesia : seleksi model ekonometrika (imamudin yuliadi) 29 data yang dipergunakan dalam studi ini adalah data sekunder time series yang diperoleh melalui publikasi bps dan bank indonesia. analisis time series yang digunakan dalam studi ini menggunakan beberapa model regresi, yaitu regresi berganda, semi logarithma, error correction model (ecm), dan partial adjustment model (pam). analisis dengan pendekatan error correction model (ecm), menggunakan alur penyelesaian dengan beberapa urutan langkah pengujian sebagai berikut: uji stasionaritas pengujian ini terdiri dari uji akar unit dan uji derajat integrasi. pada uji akar unit, data dikatakan stasioner jika nilai absolut statistik augmented diskey-fuller (adf) lebih negatif/ lebih kecil dari nilai kritis mackinnon. untuk uji derajat integrasi mentransformasi data nonstasioner menjadi data stasioner melalui proses diferensi data pada tingkat pertama atau kedua. data dikatakan stasioner jika nilai absolut stastistik adf lebih negatif/lebih kecil dari nilai kritis mackinnon. uji kointegrasi pengujian terhadap variabel gangguan et yang stasioner atau tidak dilakukan dengan menggunakan uji kointegrasi. jika kondisinya stasioner, maka semua variabel mempunyai hubungan keseimbangan jangka panjang. uji kointegrasi dilakukan ktika data yang digunakan dalam penelitian berintegrasi pada tingkat derajat yang sama. nilai residual dikatakan stasioner jika nilai absolut statistik adf lebih negatif/ lebih kecil dari nilai kritis mackinnon. uji asumsi klasik untuk mendapatkan hasil regresi yang memenuhi kaidah blue, dilakukan pengujian asumsi klasik sebagai berikut: (1) normalitas: uji jarque-bera digunakan untuk mengetahui normalitas dari suatu distribusi data. (2) autokorelasi: uji durbin-watson digunakan untuk menguji autokorelasi. autokorelasi adalah korelasi yang terjadi antara anggota seri observasi yang disusun menurut urutan waktu atau ruang. (3) heteroskedastisitas: uji park digunakan untuk menguji heteroskedastisitas dalam model. heteroskedastisitas berarti terdapat kesalahan pengganggu t dari variabel independen yang mempunyai varian yang tidak sama. (4) multikolinearitas: pengujian korelasi parsial antarvariabel independen dapat dilakukan untuk mengetahui adanya multikolinearitas. hubungan yang kuat antarvariabel independen dalam model regresi menunjukkan adanya mulikolinearitas. model yang digunakan dalam studi adalah sebagai berikut: gambar 1. kerangka penelitian mengenai mekanisme transmisi kebijakan moneter di indonesia dengan inflasi sebagai sasaran tunggal (haryono, nugroho dan pratomo, 2000: 114) jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 1, april 2013: 26-34 30 model regresi berganda dan semilogaritma inflasi = β0 + β1kurs + β2pdb + β3sb + β4 ukar + e (model 1) 1) loginflasi = β0 + β1logkurs + β2 logpdb + β3sb+β4logukar + e (model 2) 2) model partial adjustment model (pam) bentuk persamaan pam untuk jangka panjang sebagai berikut: inflasi= β0 + β1kurs + β2pdb + β3sb + β4ukar+β5inflasi(-1)+e (model 3) 3) model error correction model (ecm) pendekatan ecm mampu mengoreksi hasil regresi langsung dengan menjelaskan parameter jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. bentuk persamaan ecm sebagai berikut: inflasi = β0 + β1 d(kurs,1) + β2 d(pdb,1) + β3 d(sb) + β4d(ukar,2)+ β4ect (model 4) 4) log inflasi= β0 + β1 d(log(kurs)) + β2 d(log(pdb)) + β3 d(log(sb) + β4 d(log (ukar)) + β4res (model 5) 5) hasil dan pembahasan hasil estimasi persamaan berganda inflasi pada perekonomian indonesia dapat dilihat pada tabel 3. hasil estimasi menunjukkan temuan empirik yang tidak memuaskan karena ternyata tidak ada satupun variabel independen yang signifikan mempengaruhi besarnya tingkat inflasi. untuk mendapatkan informasi pasar yang lebih akurat, maka kemudian dilakukan modifikasi terhadap model yang dengan menggunakan logarithma atau semi logarithma dengan hasil estimasi pada tabel 4. hasil estimasi dengan model semi logaritma menunjukkan kenyataan yang lebih menarik karena semua variabel independen menunjukkan nilai yang signifikan pada α = 5 % kecuali variabel suku bunga sbi yang menunjukkan nilai yang tidak signifikan. variabel kurs menunjukkan nilai koefisien sebesar 29,81047 artinya bahwa depresiasi kurs rupiah terhadap dollar as sebesar 1 persen akan meningkatkan inflasi sebesar 29,81047 persen. sedangkan variabel pendapatan nasional menunjukkan nilai koefisien sebesar 61,59661 artinya bahwa jika pendapatan nasional naik 1 persen akan mendorong kenaikan inflasi sebesar 61,59661 persen keadaan ini disebabkan adanya fenomena inflasi tarikan permintaan (demand pull inflation) yaitu konsumen akan meningkatkan konsumsinya manakala pendapatannya meningkat. sedangkan variabel jumlah uang kartal yang beredar menunjukkan nilai koefisien sebesar -73,73225 artinya jika jumlah uang kartal yang beredar naik sebesar 1 persen akan mengakibatkan penurunan tingkat inflasi sebesar: -73,73225 persen. kondisi ini menunjukkan bahwa fenomena moneter di indonesia relatif masih ditentukan oleh faktor-faktor pada pasar tabel 3. analisis estimasi inflasi model persamaan berganda variabel koefisien t-statistik prob. uji diagnostik konstanta -4,776427 -0,422031 0,6763 r2 0,159502 kurs 0,001605 1,720320 0,0968 f-statistik 1,280955 pdb 4,56e-07 0,229967 0,8199 dw statistik 2,407058 sb 0,630429 1,011031 0,3210 ukar -8,01e-05 -0,443883 0,6607 sumber: data sekunder (diolah) inflasi di indonesia : seleksi model ekonometrika (imamudin yuliadi) 31 barang atau sektor riil karena tingkat monetisasi perekonomian indonesia relatif masih kecil. seperti telah disinggung di muka bahwa melalui pembentukan model dinamik seperti model pam, peneliti tidak saja terhindar dari permasalahan regresi lancung, tetapi juga memungkinkan memperoleh besaran simpangan baku koefisien regresi jangka panjang. kedua skala tersebut dapat digunakan atau dipakai mengamati hubungan jangka panjang antar vektor variabel ekonomi seperti yang dikehendaki oleh teori ekonomi yang terkait. hasil estimasi menggunakan model pam menunjukkan nilai yang relatif cukup menarik karena ada beberapa variabel independen yang tidak signifikan yaitu pendapatan nasional dan jumlah uang kartal yang beredar. variabel kurs menunjukkan nilai koefisien sebesar 0,002252 artinya bahwa perubahan variabel kurs rupiah terhadap dollar as yang mengalami depresiasi sebesar 1 persen akan meningkatkan inflasi sebesar 0,002252 persen. demikian juga variabel tingka bunga sbi jika mengalami kenaikan sebesar 1 persen akan meningkatkan inflasi sebesar 2,385590 persen. inflasi pada tahun ini juga dipengaruhi oleh tingkat inflasi pada tahun sebelumnya sebesar: -0,614032 persen. namun ada hal yang kurang memuaskan bahwa nilai koefisien determinasi (r2) sebesar 0,371002 artinya bahwa variabel independen pada model penelitian pam ini hanya dapat menjelaskan 37,10 persen pengaruh perubahan terhadap inflasi sebagai variabel dependen. hasil uji stasioneritas menjelaskan bahwa variabel yang stasioner hanyalah variabel inflasi pada kondisi level sedangkan variabel pdb dan jumlah uang kartal yang beredar stasioner pada kondisi second difference sementara variabel kurs dan sbi stasioner pada kondisi first difference. untuk itu kemudian dilakukan uji kointegrasi dengan hasil augmented dickey-fuller (df) test statistik menunjukkan angka -6,736109 dengan nilai probabilitas sebesar 0,000 artinya menunjukkan nilainya telah terintegrasi. karena variabel telah kointegrasi maka kemudian dapat dilakukan estimasi dengan ecm dengan hasil regresi pada tabel 6. hasil estimasi di atas menunjukkan hasil yang memuaskan namun menghadapi persoalan adanya variabel yang tidak stasioner yaitu pdb dan jumlah uang kartal yang beredar (ukar). sehingga perlu dilakukan uji stasioneritas dan memperoleh hasil yang lebih bagus dimana semua variabel stasioner pada kondisi first difference. kemudian dilakukan uji kointetabel 5. analisis estimasi inflasi model partial adjustment model (pam) variabel koefisien t-statistik prob. uji diagnostik c -31,67742 -2,244305 0,0339 r2 0,371002 kurs 0,002252 2,586612 0,0159 f-statistik 2,949152 pdb 1,18e-06 0,654062 0,5190 dw statistik 1,784962 sb 2,385590 2,874003 0,0082 ukar -0,000112 -0,685520 0,4993 inflasi(-1) -0,614032 -2,789414 0,0100 sumber: data sekunder (diolah) tabel 4. analisis estimasi inflasi dengan model semilogarithma model persamaan berganda variabel koefisien t-statistik prob. uji diagnostik c -397,4795 -2,559547 0,0164 r2 0,337307 log(kurs) 29,81047 2,989741 0,0059 f-statistik 3,435711 log(pdb) 61,59661 2,303219 0,0292 dw statistik 1,964263 sb -0,185967 -0,309689 0,7592 log(ukar) -73,73225 -2,667612 0,0128 sumber: data sekunder (diolah) jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 1, april 2013: 26-34 32 grasi dan menunjukkan nilai yang signifikan sebesar -5,446678 lebih besar dari pada nilai d-f statistik. setelah melalui uji kointegrasi kemudian dilakukan estimasi dengan menggunakan metode ecm dengan modifikasi dan diperoleh hasil estimasi pada tabel 7. hasil estimasi menunjukkan bahwa semua variabel yang telah stasioner dan lolos uji kointegrasi menunjukkan nilai yang signifikan secara statistik. variabel kurs nilai koefisiennya sebesar 35,99900 artinya jika kurs mengalami depresiasi sebesar 1 persen akan berakibat kenaikan inflasi sebesar 35,99 persen. sedangkan variabel pdb nilai koefisiennya sebesar 111,3327 artinya jika pdb naik 1 persen akan mendorong kenaikan inflasi sebesar 111,33 persen. kondisi ini menyiratkan kenaikan yang didorong dari peningkatan agregat demand (demand pull inflation). sedangkan variabel tingkat bunga sbi dan jumlah uang kartal beredar masing-masing nilai koefisiennya sebesar: -2,090450 dan -132,7688 artinya jika sbi naik 1 persen akan mengurangi inflasi sebesar: -2,09 persen. fenomena ini menunjukkan bahwa kenaikan tingkat sbi akan meningkatkan efisiensi sektor keuangan untuk lebih mendorong peningkatan jumlah penyaluran kredit dan mengurangi jumlah kredit macet. sedangkan nilai regresi pada variabel jumlah uang kartal beredar sebesar: -132,7688 artinya apabila jumlah uang kartal beredar naik 1 persen akan mendorong penurunan inflasi sebesar -132,76 persen. keadaan menunjukkan bahwa kenaikan jumlah uang kartal akan mendorong sektor riil untuk menyerap jumlah uang beredar dalam kegiatan ekonomi seperti peningkatan konsumsi, investasi, produksi, dan sebagainya, sehingga akan menurunkan tingkat inflasi. simpulan hasil estimasi dengan beberapa model analisis menjelaskan fenomena inflasi di indonesia dan diperoleh beberapa kesimpulan sebagai berikut: pertama, variabel kurs nilai koefisiennya sebesar 35,99900 artinya jika kurs mengalami depresiasi sebesar 1 persen akan ber akibat kenaikan inflasi sebesar 35,9 persen. kedua, variabel pdb nilai koefisiennya sebesar 111,3327 artinya jika pdb naik 1 persen akan mendorong kenaikan inflasi sebesar 111,33 persen. kondisi ini menyiratkan kenaikan yang didorong dari peningkatan agregat demand (demand pull inflation). sedangkan variabel tingkat bunga sbi dan jumlah uang kartal beredar tabel 6. analisis estimasi inflasi model error correction model (ecm) i variabel koefisien t-statistik prob. uji diagnostik c -0,245282 -0,081499 0,9357 r2 0,824244 d(kurs,2) 0,008210 3,051375 0,0055 f-statistik 0,824244 d(pdb,2) 7,78e-06 1,749439 0,0930 dw statistik 2,155799 d(sb) -4,257757 -3,809513 0,0009 d(ukar,2) -0,000999 -2,029932 0,0536 ect 1,412040 4,682840 0,0001 sumber: data sekunder (diolah) tabel 7. analisis estimasi inflasi model error correction model (ecm) ii variabel koefisien t-statistik prob. uji diagnostik c 1,946812 0,393851 0,6970 r2 d(log(kurs)) 35,99900 3,994836 0,0005 f-statistik d(log(pdb)) 111,3327 4,913039 0,0000 dw statistik d(sb) -2,090450 -4,966185 0,0000 d(log(ukar)) -132,7688 -5,940453 0,0000 res 1,172221 5,930165 0,0000 sumber: data sekunder (diolah) inflasi di indonesia : seleksi model ekonometrika (imamudin yuliadi) 33 masing-masing nilai koefisiennya sebesar: 2,090450. ketiga, variabel tingkat bunga sbi nilai koefisiennya -132,7688 artinya jika sbi naik 1 persen akan mengurangi inflasi sebesar -2,09 persen. fenomena ini menunjukkan bahwa kenaikan tingkat sbi akan meningkatkan efisiensi sektor keuangan untuk lebih mendorong peningkatan jumlah penyaluran kredit dan mengurangi jumlah kredit macet. sedangkan nilai regresi pada variabel jumlah uang kartal beredar sebesar: -132,7688 artinya apabila jumlah uang kartal beredar naik 1 persen akan mendorong penurunan inflasi sebesar -132,76 persen. keadaan menunjukkan bahwa kenaikan jumlah uang kartal akan mendorong sektor riil untuk menyerap jumlah uang beredar dalam kegiatan ekonomi seperti peningkatan konsumsi, investasi, produksi, dan sebagainya, sehingga akan menurunkan tingkat inflasi. keempat, fenomena inflasi menunjukan adanya distorsi dalam perekonomian indonesia baik pada pasar barang, pasar uang maupun pasar tenaga kerja. inflasi merupakan fenomena bersifat multi aspek sehingga penanganannya juga harus lintas bidang untuk dapat menyelesaikan permasalahannya secara komprehensif. daftar pustaka aghevli, bb. (1976). a model of the monetary sector for indonesia 1968-1973. bulletin of indonesian economic studies, vol. 12/3: 5060. aghevli, bb. (1977). money, price and the balance of payment: indonesia, 1968-1973. journal of development studies, vol. 13/2: 35-57. aghevli, bb. (1999). an econometric model of monetary sector for indonesia. journal of development studies. anwar, arsyad. (1985). prospek dan permasalahan ekonomi indonesia 1985-1986, edisi pertama. jakarta: fakultas ekonomi universitas indonesia dan sinar harapan. branson, william h. (2000). macroeconomic theory and policy, third edition, harper and row publisher. chacholiades, miltiades. (1973). the pure theory of international trade. london: the mac millan press. chiang, alpha c. (2002). fundamental methods of mathematical economics, third edition, international student edition. london: mcgraw hill inc. geanakoplos, john and dimitrios tsomocos, (2001). international finance in general equilibrium. cowles foundation discussion paper no. 1313, july 2001. griffin, john and rene stulz. (2001). international competition and exchange rate shocks a cross country industry analysis of stock returns. review of financial studies, spring 2001: 215-241. groosman, gene m. (1992). imperfect competition and international trade, the mit press. grauwe, paul de and isabel vansteenkiste. (2001). exchange rates and fundamentals a non linear relationship?, cesifo working paper no. 577, october 2001. grubel, herbert g. (1981). international economics, richard d irwin inc. gujarati, damodar n. (2002). basic econometrics, fifth edition. london: mcgraw-hill. havrilesky t and boorman j. (1976). current issues in monetary theory and policy, ahm publishing corporation. henderson, james m, quandt richard e. (1980). microeconomic theory a mathematical approach, third edition. international student edition. london: mcgraw-hill international book company. soewardi, herman. (2000). roda berputar dunia bergulir kognisi baru tentang timbultenggelamnya sivilisasi, edisi i. bandung: bakti mandiri. hill, hall. (1996). the indonesian economic since 1966 southeast asia’s emerging giant. london: cambridge university press. yuliadi, imamudin. (2001). analisis makroekonomi indonesia pendekatan is-lm. tesis. yogyakarta: universitas gadjah mada. insukendro. (1990). komponen koefisien regresi jangka panjang model ekonomi studi kasus impor barang di indonesia. journal ekonomi dan bisnis indonesia, no. 2 tahun v. insukendro. (1992). pembentukan model dalam penelitian ekonomi. jurnal ekonomi dan bisnis indonesia, tahun vii, no. 1. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 1, april 2013: 26-34 34 insukendro. (1996). pendekatan masa depan dalam penyusunan model ekonometrika: forward-looking model dan pendekatan kointegrasi. jurnal ekonomi dan industri, tahun kedua, edisi kedua. insukendro. (1998). pendekatan stok penyangga permintaan uang: tinjauan teoritik dan sebuah studi empirik di indonesia, ekonomi dan keuangan indonesia, vol. xlvi, no. 4. insukendro. (2000). pemilihan model ekonomi empirik dengan pendekatan koreksi kesalahan. jurnal ekonomi dan bisnis indonesia, vol. 14, no. 1. intriligator, michael d. (1996). econometric models, technicques and application. englewood cliffs, new jersey usa: prentice-hall inc. kenen, peter b. (1989). the international economy, second edition. englewood cliff, new jersey: prentice hall. kilian l and m taylor. 2001. why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates ?, university of mimeo: 29. kmenta, jan. (2000). elements of econometric, second edition. london: mcgraw-hill. microsoft word 05-rini jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 2, oktober 2014, hlm. 135-143   peranan suku bunga, harga aset, dan nilai tukar dalam pertumbuhan ekonomi di indonesia rini dwi astuti fakultas ekonomi, universitas pembangunan nasional “veteran” yogyakarta jalan swk 104 (lingkar utara), condongcatur, yogyakarta 55283 indonesia e-mail korespondensi: rinidwiastuti@upnyk.ac.id naskah diterima: maret 2014; disetujui: agustus 2014 abstract: this study analyzes the effect of interest rates, asset prices and exchange rates on economic growth in indonesia. the data used are quarterly data 2000-2011. the analysis tools are error correction model. the results showed that the interest rate, asset prices and the exchange rates effect on economic growth is only in the long term. the results imply that the behaviour of interest rates, asset prices and exchange rates are important for economic growth. thus, the formulation and implementation of financial policies that enhance investment friendly rate of interest borrowing more conducive to investment, strengthening the capital market as a source of investment funds and the stability of the exchange rate are necessary to promote growth in indonesia. keywords: interest rate channel; assets price channel; economic growth; error correction model jel classification: e40, e44, e52, e58 abstrak:penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh jalur suku bunga, harga aset, dan nilai tukar terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di indonesia. data yang digunakan merupakan data kuartalan periode tahun 2000-2011 dengan menggunakan alat analisis errror correction model. hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa jalur suku bunga, harga aset (saham), dan nilai tukar hanya memiliki pengaruh dalam jangka panjang terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di indonesia. hasil ini menunjukkan bahwa perilaku suku bunga, harga aset dan nilai tukar penting bagi pertumbuhan ekonomi. dengan demikian, perumusan dan pelaksanaan kebijakan di sektor keuangan perlu diorientasikan pada penetapan suku bunga pinjaman yang lebih kondusif bagi investasi, memperkuat pasar modal sebagai sumber dana investasi dan stabilitas nilai tukar sangat diperlukan untuk mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi di indonesia. kata kunci: jalur suku bunga; jalur harga aset; jalur nilai tukar; pertumbuhan ekonomi; error correction model klasifikasi jel: e40, e44, e52, e58 pendahuluan perekonomian selalu digerakkan oleh permintaan dan penawaran agregat. keseimbangan antara keduanya akan menghasilkan harga dan output keseimbangan. penganut supply side lebih meyakini bahwa apa yang menggerakkan perekonomian berasal dari sisi penawaran agregat. di pihak lain, penganut demand side menganggap bahwa faktor daya beli terhadap barang dan jasa lebih dominan dalam menggerakkan perekonomian, sehingga mereka beranggapan bahwa produksi akan berkurang jika terjadi penurunan permintaan agregat. variabel yang mampu mempengaruhi permintaan agregat adalah kebijakan moneter, fiskal, dan internasional. dalam perekonomian yang lesu, kebijakan moneter dan fiskal yang ekspansif dan kebijakan stabilisasi nilai tukar dapat dilakukan untuk mendorong kenaikan output. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 2, oktober 2014: 135-143 136 pertumbuhan ekonomi indonesia terus mengalami perbaikan sejak krisis ekonomi tahun 1998. periode tahun 2000-2002, rata-rata pertumbuhan ekonomi indonesia mencapai 4 persen dan mencapai 6 persen setelah tahun 2006. perkembangan ekonomi yang terus membaik ini sejalan dengan kebijakan ekspansif bank sentral yang terus melakukan penurunan suku bunga yang tercermin pada suku bunga pinjaman perbankan yang mengalami penurunan rata-rata dari 19 persen pada periode 2000-2002 menjadi 13 persen pada periode 20092011. kinerja pasar modal juga mengalami perbaikan yang tercermin dari rata-rata indeks harga saham gabungan (ihsg) yang mengalami kenaikan. pada periode 2006-2008 ihsg telah menembus angka 1920, naik hampir lima kali lipat dibandingkan periode 2000-2002 yang hanya berkisar pada angka 411. sisi nilai tukar menunjukkan kondisi yang relatif stabil pada kisaran di bawah rp9.500 per us dolar (tabel 1). perbankan dan pasar modal merupakan sumber pendanaan bagi investasi swasta, sehingga kinerja perbankan dan pasar modal yang terus membaik dapat mendorong peningkatan investasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi di indonesia. perbankan diharapkan mampu memberikan suku bunga pinjaman yang kondusif bagi investasi, demikian juga kapitalisasi pasar modal diharapkan akan terus meningkat. pada sisi eksternal, adanya stabilisasi nilai tukar dapat menjamin kepastian usaha yang selanjutnya dapat mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi. untuk itu, penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis bagaimana pengaruh suku bunga, harga aset (saham), dan nilai tukar terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di indonesia. suku bunga dapat mempengaruhi sektor riil (output) melalui mekanisme pengaruh perubahan suku bunga jangka pendek yang ditransmisikan pada suku bunga menengah/ panjang melalui mekanisme penyeimbangan sisi permintaan dan penawaran di pasar uang. perubahan suku bunga akan mempengaruhi biaya modal (cost of capital) yang selanjutnya akan mempengaruhi pengeluaran investasi. walaupun keynes pada awalnya menekankan jalur ini bekerja melalui keputusan bisnis mengenai pengeluaran investasi, namun pendekatan yang baru melihat bahwa keputusan konsumen mengenai perumahan dan pengeluaran barang konsumen tahan lama juga merupakan keputusan investasi. peningkatan investasi dan konsumsi akan mendorong kenaikan permintaan agregat dan output (mishkin, 2008:317). teori jalur harga aset salah satunya dikembangkan oleh james tobin tahun 1969, yaitu teori tobin’s q. teori ini menjelaskan bagaimana valuasi saham dapat mempengaruhi output. tobin mendefinisikan q sebagai nilai pasar perusahaan dibagi dengan biaya penggantian modal. jika nilai q tinggi, nilai pasar perusahaan tinggi relatif terhadap biaya penggantian modal, sehingga modal pabrik dan peralatan baru adalah murah relatif terhadap nilai pasar perusahaan. maka perusahaan dapat menerbitsuku bunga biaya modal investasi/ konsumsi permintaan agregat output gambar 1. transmisi jalur suku bunga tabel 1. data makroekonomi indonesia, 2000-2011 tahun rata-rata suku bunga pinjaman(%) ihsg kurs rp terhadap us$ pertumbuhan ekonomi(%) 2000-2002 19 447 9.413 4 2003-2005 15 829 9.154 5 2006-2008 15 1.920 9.344 6 2009-2011 13 3.022 9.349 6 sumber: bank indonesia, diolah peranan suku bunga, harga aset ... (rini dwi astuti) 137 kan saham dan mendapatkan harga saham yang tinggi relatif terhadap biaya dari fasilitas dan peralatan yang dibeli. pengeluaran investasi akan meningkat, karena perusahaan dapat membeli banyak barang modal baru dengan hanya menerbitkan saham dalam jumlah yang sedikit (mishkin, 2008:321). mekanisme transmisi jalur harga aset juga melihat bagaimana neraca konsumen dapat mempengaruhi keputusan pengeluarannya. teori ini dikembangkan oleh franco modigliani tahun 1971, yang dikenal dengan teori konsumsi hipotesis siklus hidup (life cycle hypothesis of consumption). prinsip dasar teori modigliani adalah konsumen akan menstabilkan konsumsinya sepanjang waktu. sehingga apa yang menjadi penentu pengeluaran konsumsi adalah lamanya hidup yang dimiliki konsumen, bukan hanya pendapatan saat ini. bentuk kekayaan yang dimiliki konsumen dapat berbentuk aset finansial maupun non finansial. salah satu bentuk aset finansial berupa saham. ketika harga saham naik, nilai kekayaan finansial meningkat. sehingga konsumsi akan meningkat dan selanjutnya meningkatkan permintaan agregat dan output (mishkin, 2008:322). mekanisme transmisi jalur nilai tukar menekankan bahwa pergerakan nilai tukar dapat mempengaruhi perkembangan penawaran dan permintaan agregat melalui pengaruhnya terhadap ekspor bersih, dan selanjutnya output. semakin rendah nilai mata uang domestik terhadap mata uang asing membuat barang dalam negeri relatif lebih murah dibandingkan barang luar negeri, sehingga menyebabkan kenaikan ekspor bersih, demikian pula dengan permintaan agregat dan output (mishkin, 2008: 319). metode penelitian penelitian ini menggunakan data sekunder runtut waktu kuartalan periode 2000.1-2011.4. periode dipilih setelah krisis ekonomi akhir tahun 1997, di mana mulai tahun 2000 perekonomian indonesia sudah mulai menunjukkan kondisi yang stabil. data diperoleh dari statistik ekonomi dan keuangan indonesia yang diterbitkan oleh bank indonesia. model ecm: dlpdbt = α0 + α 1 drkt + α2 dlihsgt + α3 dlkurst + α4 rkt-1 + α5 lihsgt-1 + α6 lkurst-1 + α7 ectt-1 + ε 1) nilai tukar harga relatif ekspor bersih permintaan agregat output penawaran agregat biaya produksi gambar 3. transmisi jalur nilai tukar harga aset tobin’s q konsumsi permintaan agregat output investasi kekayaan gambar 2. transmisi jalur harga aset jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 2, oktober 2014: 135-143 138 dlpdbt = lpdbt – lpdbt-1; drkt = rkt – rkt-1; dlihsgt = lihsgt – lihsgt-1; dlkurst= lkurst – lkurst-1; ect = rk+lihsg+lkurs-lpdb α1, α4< 0; dan α2,α3,α5,α6,α7> 0 model ecm jangka panjang: lpdbt = β0 + β1 rkt + β2 ihsgt + β3 lkurst + ε 2) β0 = (α0 + α7) / α7 ; β1 = (α4 + α7) / α7; β2 = (α5 + α7) / α7; β3 = (α6 + α7) / α7 β1< 0; dan β 2, β 3 > 0 di mana lpdb merupakan variabel pertumbuhan ekonomi yang diproksi dengan data produk domestik bruto atas dasar harga konstan tahun 2000 (dalam logaritma natural). variabel jalur suku bunga (rk) diproksi dengan data suku bunga kredit investasi pada bank umum konvensional (dalam persen), variabel jalur harga aset (lihsg) diproksi dengan data indeks harga saham gabungan di bursa efek indonesia (dalam logaritma natural), dan variabel jalur nilai tukar (lkurs) menggunakan data nilai tukar rupiah terhadap us$ (dalam logaritma natural). ect merupakan variabel error correction term dan ε adalah variabel gangguan (residual). alat analisis yang digunakan adalah analisis regresi dengan metode ordinary least square. metode ini bertujuan untuk meminimalkan kesalahan terkecil dari sebuah model. dalam sebuah model dikenal adanya model statis dan dinamis. penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan model dinamis, yang mampu memberikan analisis jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. jangka pendek menunjukkan periode dari data penelitian di mana dalam penelitian ini menggunakan data kuartalan. konsep jangka panjang merupakan periode dari suatu keseimbangan sampai dengan keseimbangan baru setelah adanya shock. salah satu model dinamis yang banyak digunakan adalah model error correction model. dalam model dinamis disyaratkan bahwa data yang digunakan harus stasioner untuk menghindari adanya regresi lancung (spurious regression). sehingga sebelum dilakukan uji model harus terlebih dahulu dilakukan uji perilaku data untuk mengetahui apakah data yang digunakan telah stasioner (gujarati, 2003:814). hasil dan pembahasan uji perilaku data hasil uji stasioneritas pada tabel 2 menunjukkan bahwa hanya variabel jalur harga aset (lihsg) yang stasioner pada tingkat level atau tidak mengandung akar unit (unit root) karena nilai adf t-statistic (dalam nilai absolut) yang lebih besar dari nilai test critical values pada α sebesar 5 persen (dalam nilai absolut). untuk variabel pertumbuhan ekonomi (lpdb), jalur suku bunga (rk), dan jalur nilai tukar (lkurs) belum stasioner pada tingkat level. tabel 2. uji stasioneritas variabel adf tstatistic test critical values 5% kesimpulan lpdb -2,15 -3,51 tidak stasioner rk -2,95 -3,51 tidak stasioner lihsg -3,90 -3,51 stasioner lkurs -3,26 -3,51 tidak stasioner regresi akan mengalami regresi lancung (spurious regression) jika model penelitian diregresi dalam data level karena data tidak stasioner pada i(0) atau pada data yang stasioner pada derajat integrasi yang tidak sama. untuk menghindari regresi lancung dapat dilakukan uji kointegrasi. jika nilai residual dari semua variabel adalah stasioner maka dapat dikatakan telah terjadi kointegrasi (hubungan jangka panjang) antardata atau variabel yang digunakan dalam model dan terhindar dari adanya regresi lancung (gujarati, 2003:823). hasil uji kointegrasi pada tabel 3 memperlihatkan bahwa nilai adf t-statistic lebih besar dari nilai test critical values 5% sehingga dapat dikatakan bahwa telah terjadi kointegrasi antarvariabel yang digunakan dalam model. peranan suku bunga, harga aset ... (rini dwi astuti) 139 tabel 3. uji kointegrasi trace statistic critical value 5% 80,09 63,88 uji model dalam jangka pendek, semua variabel menunjukkan tidak memiliki pengaruh terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di indonesia. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa pengaruh jalur suku bunga, harga aset dan nilai tukar terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di indonesia tidak berlangsung seketika namun membutuhkan kelambanan (lag). dalam jangka panjang, variabel suku bunga berpengaruh negatif, sedangkan harga aset dan nilai tukar memiliki pengaruh positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di indonesia. tabel 4. error correction model (ecm) variabel koefisien t-statistic prob. drk -0,010430 -1,555655 0,1279 dlihsg -0,017244 -0,503010 0,6178 dlkurs -0,007423 -0,412370 0,6823 rk(-1) -0,174187 -2,226178 0,0319* lihsg(-1) -0,134942 -2,172805 0,0359* dlkurs(-1) -0,152452 -2,192613 0,0344* ect(-1) 0,173798 2,224949 0,0319* probability obs*r-squared bg lm test = 0,06 probability obs*r-squared white heteroscedasticity test = 0,63 tabel 5. koefisien regresi ecm jangka panjang variabel koefisien rk -0,002 lihsg 0,2236 dlkurs 0,1228 pembahasan jalur suku bunga tidak berpengaruh terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di indonesia dalam jangka pendek, namun berpengaruh negatif dalam jangka panjang. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa pengaruh jalur suku bunga terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di indonesia tidak berlaku seketika dalam jangka pendek melainkan memerlukan tenggang waktu sebelum berlaku dalam jangka panjang. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa mekanisme transmisi kebijakan moneter jalur suku bunga baru akan efektif dalam jangka panjang. dalam jangka pendek, adanya kontrak menyebabkan biaya produksi cenderung tetap, sehingga adanya kenaikan suku bunga pinjaman dalam jangka pendek belum membebani struktur keuangan perusahaan sehingga tidak akan berpengaruh pada keputusan investasi perusahaan. namun perubahan suku bunga pinjaman dalam jangka panjang akan berpengaruh terhadap keputusan inveatasi perusahaan sehingga secara makro akan mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi. nilai koefisien regresi variabel suku bunga sebesar -0,002 menunjukkan bahwa setiap penurunan suku bunga sebesar 1 persen dapat menyebabkan kenaikan pertumbuhan ekonomi di indonesia sebesar 0,002 persen dalam jangka panjang. penurunan suku bunga berarti biaya modal yang lebih rendah bagi produsen sehingga akan menaikkan insentif produsen untuk meminjam dana perbankan. investasi akan bertambah yang berarti kenaikan permintaan agregat dan output sehingga pertumbuhan ekonomi meningkat. hasil penelitian ini sejalan dengan penelitian kusmiarso dkk (2002) di indonesia, albu (2006) di rumania, dan obamuyi (2009) di nigeria yang menemukan bahwa suku bunga dapat mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi melalui pengaruhnya terhadap investasi. jalur harga aset (saham) dan nilai tukar juga tidak berpengaruh terhadap terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di indonesia dalam jangka pendek, namun berpengaruh positif dalam jangka panjang. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa pengaruh jalur harga aset dan nilai tukar terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di indonesia juga tidak berlaku seketika dalam jangka jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 2, oktober 2014: 135-143 140 pendek melainkan memerlukan tenggang waktu sebelum berlaku dalam jangka panjang. dalam jangka pendek jalur harga aset (saham) tidak mampu mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi karena relatif kecilnya proporsi saham baik dalam struktur pasar keuangan maupun dalam stuktur aset rumah tangga. hasil ini sejalan dengan penelitian idris dkk (2002) yang menemukan bahwa jalur harga aset belum mampu mentransmisikan kebijakan moneter dalam mempengaruhi perekonomian di indonesia serta penelitian modis (2007) yang menemukan tidak adanya korelasi antara harga saham dan pertumbuhan ekonomi di amerika serikat. namun dalam jangka panjang penelitian ini menemukan bahwa jalur harga aset (saham) berpengaruh positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di indonesia. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa teori tobin’s q berlaku di indonesia. dalam jangka panjang, kenaikan harga saham menyebabkan nilai pasar perusahaan tinggi relatif terhadap biaya penggantian modal, sehingga modal pabrik dan peralatan baru adalah murah relatif terhadap nilai pasar perusahaan. maka perusahaan dapat menerbitkan saham dan mendapatkan harga saham yang tinggi relatif terhadap biaya dari fasilitas dan peralatan yang dibeli. pengeluaran investasi akan meningkat, karena perusahaan dapat membeli banyak barang modal baru dengan hanya menerbitkan saham dalam jumlah yang sedikit. hasil penelitian ini juga sejalan dengan konsep modigliani tentang life cycle hypothesis of consumption di mana ketika harga saham naik, nilai kekayaan finansial meningkat. sehingga konsumsi akan meningkat dan selanjutnya meningkatkan permintaan agregat dan pertumbuhan ekonomi. nilai koefisien regresi variabel jalur harga aset (saham) jangka panjang sebesar 0,22 menunjukkan bahwa kenaikan harga aset (saham) sebesar 1 persen dapat menyebabkan kenaikan pertumbuhan ekonomi di indonesia dalam jangka panjang sebesar 0,22 persen. nilai tukar dalam jangka pendek tidak mampu mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi di indonesia karena pengaruh jalur nilai tukar terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi tidak berlangsung seketika. hal ini dimungkinkan karena dalam jangka pendek banyak transaksi internasional menggunakan hedging (perlindungan terhadap nilai tukar) sehingga perubahan nilai tukar tidak mempengaruhi transaksi internasional termasuk ekspor neto. namun dalam jangka panjang, variabel nilai tukar berpengaruh positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di indonesia, di mana adanya kenaikan nilai nominal rupiah per us dolar, sebagai contoh dari $1=rp9.000 menjadi $1=rp10.000, yang berarti terjadi depresiasi rupiah terhadap dolar as menyebabkan kenaikan pertumbuhan ekonomi di indonesia. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa adanya depresiasi mata uang domestik terhadap mata uang asing yang berarti semakin rendah nilai mata uang domestik membuat barang dalam negeri relatif lebih murah dibandingkan barang luar negeri, sehingga menyebabkan kenaikan ekspor bersih, yang berarti meningkatkan permintaan agregat dan pada akhirnya mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi. nilai koefisien regresi variabel nilai tukar dalam jangka panjang sebesar 0,12 menunjukkan bahwa adanya apresiasi us dolar atau depresiasi rupiah sebesar 1 persen dapat menyebabkan kenaikan pertumbuhan ekonomi di indonesia dalam jangka panjang sebesar 0,12 persen. penelitian ini sejalan dengan penelitian siswanto dkk (2002) yang melakukan studi terkait mekanisme transmisi kebijakan moneter jalur nilai tukar di indonesia, yang menemukan bahwa nilai tukar mampu mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi di indonesia setelah krisis, meskipun pada periode sebelum krisis nilai tukar tidak menunjukkan pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di indonesia. penelitian ini juga sejalan dengan penelitian rodrik (2008) yang menunjukkan bahwa nilai tukar yang undervalued mampu mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi di 188 negara. penelitian schnabl (2007)menemukan bahwa stabilitas nilai tukar mampu mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi pada perekonomian terbuka kecil di eropa. hasil yang sama diperoleh akyüz (2009) pada penelitiannya di asia. simpulan jalur suku bunga, harga aset (saham), dan nilai tukar hanya memiliki pengaruh dalam jangka panjang terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di indonesia. hal ini menunjukkan peranan suku bunga, harga aset ... (rini dwi astuti) 141 transmisi jalur suku bunga, harga aset (saham), dan nilai tukar di indonesia tidak berlaku seketika dalam jangka pendek melainkan memerlukan tenggang waktu sebelum berlaku dalam jangka panjang. berdasarkan hasil penelitian terdapat beberapa implikasi kebijakan yang pertama terkait dengan suku bunga. masih relatif tingginya suku bunga pinjaman di indonesia dapat menghambat investasi. untuk itu dalam rangka mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi agar tumbuh lebih tinggi diperlukan tingkat suku bunga yang lebih kompetitif dan kondusif bagi investasi. kedua, terkait dengan harga aset. perlunya untuk terus melakukan upaya pengembangan pasar modal di indonesia agar pangsa pasarnya dalam struktur pasar keuangan di indonesia meningkat dengan melakukan berbagai inovasi produk keuangan yang tetap memperhatikan aspek risiko dan perlindungan terhadap konsumen. kecilnya pengaruh harga aset dimungkinkan karena penggunaan proksi aset berupa harga saham yang hanya memiliki proporsi kecil dalam struktur aset masyarakat indonesia, sehingga untuk penelitian selanjutnya perlu untuk dipertimbangkan proksi lain dari aset seperti harga tanah, rumah atau aset lainnya. ketiga berkaitan dengan nilai tukar. perlunya stabilitas nilai tukar yang terus terjaga tidak hanya dari sisi fundamental ekonomi namun juga aspek non ekonomi seperti adanya rumor dan sentimen pasar. untuk itu bank sentral harus terus melakukan sosialisasi dan edukasi kepada masyarakat untuk meminimalkan potensi munculnya kepanikan masyarakat serta meningkatkan sense masyarakat akan pentingnya stabilitas nilai tukar sehingga tidak melakukan tindakan yang kontraproduktif terhadap upaya stabilisasi nilai tukar. daftar pustaka akyüz, yilmaz. (2009). exchange rate management, growth, and stability: national and regional policy options in asia, asia pacific trade and investment initiative undp regional centre for asia pacific, colombo office. albu, lucian-liviu. (2006). trends in the interest rate – investment – gdp growth relationship. romanian journal of economic forecasting, no. 3: 5-13. bank indonesia. (2003). bank indonesia: bank sentral republik indonesia tinjauan kelembagaan, kebijakan, dan organisasi, jakarta: pusat pendidikan dan studi kebanksentralan (ppsk) bank indonesia. gujarati, damodar n. (2003). basic econometrics, fourth edition. new york: mcgraw hill. idris, rendra z dkk. (2002). asset price channel of monetary transmission in indonesia, transmission mechanisms of monetary policy in indonesia. jakarta: directorate of economic research and monetary policy, bank indonesia: 223-264. kusmiarso, bambang dkk. (2002). interest rate channel of monetary transmission in indonesia.transmission mechanisms of monetary policy in indonesia. jakarta: directorate of economic research and monetary policy, bank indonesia: 27-102. mishkin, frederic s. (2008). ekonomi uang, perbankan, dan pasar keuangan, edisi 8, buku 2. jakarta: penerbit salemba empat. modis, theodore. (2007). sunspots, gdp and the stock market, technological forecasting & social change, no. 74: 1508–1514. rodrik, dani. (2008). the real exchange rate and economic growth, brookings papers on economic activity: 365-439. schnabl, gunther. (2007). exchange rate volatility and growth in small open economies at the emu periphery, working paper series, no 773, european central bank. siswanto, benny dkk. (2002). exchange rate channel of monetary transmission in indonesia, transmission mechanisms of monetary policy in indonesia, directorate of economic research and monetary policy. jakarta: bank indonesia: 159-190. obamuyi, t. m. (2009). an investigation of the relationship between interest rates and economic growth in nigeria, 19702006. journal of economics and international finance, vol. 1(4): 093-098. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 2, oktober 2014: 135-143 142 warjiyo, perry dan juda agung. (2002). monetary policy transmission in indonesia: an overview. transmission mechanisms of monetary policy in indonesia. jakarta: directorate of economic research and monetary policy, bank indonesia. www.bi.go.id www.bapepam.go.id lampiran tabe 1. uji perilaku data a. uji stasioneritas (1) variabel lpdb null hypothesis: lpdb has a unit root exogenous: constant, linear trend lag length: 4 (automatic based on sic, maxlag=9) t-statistic prob.* augmented dickey-fuller test statistic -2,152620 0,5029 test critical values: 1% level -4,186481 5% level -3,518090 10% level -3,189732 *mackinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. (2) variabel rk null hypothesis: rk has a unit root exogenous: constant, linear trend lag length: 1 (automatic based on sic, maxlag=9) t-statistic prob.* augmented dickey-fuller test statistic -2,953845 0,1561 test critical values: 1% level -4,170583 5% level -3,510740 10% level -3,185512 *mackinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. null hypothesis: lkurs has a unit root exogenous: constant, linear trend lag length: 0 (automatic based on sic, maxlag=9) t-statistic prob.* augmented dickey-fuller test statistic -3,261157 0,0854 test critical values: 1% level -4,165756 5% level -3,508508 10% level -3,184230 *mackinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. peranan suku bunga, harga aset ... (rini dwi astuti) 143 b. uji kointegrasi sample (adjusted): 2000q3-2011q4 included observations: 46 after adjustments trend assumption: linear deterministic trend (restricted) series: lpdb rk lihsg lkurs lags interval (in first differences): 1 to 1 unrestricted cointegration rank test (trace) hypothesized trace 0,05 no. of ce(s) eigenvalue statistic critical value prob.** none * 0,625668 80,08623 63,87610 0,0012 at most 1 0,338765 34,88612 42,91525 0,2498 at most 2 0,208619 15,85839 25,87211 0,5040 at most 3 0,104856 5,095477 12,51798 0,5827 trace test indicates 1 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0,05 level * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0,05 level **mackinnon-haug-michelis (1999) p-values tabel 2. error correction model (ecm) dependent variable: d(lpdb) method: least squares sample (adjusted): 2000q2-2011q4 included observations: 47 after adjustments variable coefficient std. error t-statistic prob. c 1,813404 0,835966 2,169232 0,0362 d(rk) -0,010430 0,006705 -1,555655 0,1279 d(lihsg) -0,017244 0,034282 -0,503010 0,6178 d(lkurs) -0,007423 0,018000 -0,412370 0,6823 rk(-1) -0,174187 0,078245 -2,226178 0,0319 lihsg(-1) -0,134942 0,062105 -2,172805 0,0359 lkurs(-1) -0,152452 0,069530 -2,192613 0,0344 ect(-1) 0,173798 0,078113 2,224949 0,0319 r-squared 0,166309 mean dependent var 0,012740 adjusted r-squared 0,016672 s.d. dependent var 0,023730 s.e. of regression 0,023531 akaike info criterion -4,507142 sum squared resid 0,021595 schwarz criterion -4,192224 log likelihood 113,9178 hannan-quinn criter. -4,388636 f-statistic 1,111416 durbin-watson stat 2,450847 prob(f-statistic) 0,375526 uji autokorelasi ecm breusch-godfrey serial correlation lm test: f-statistic 3,181053 prob. f(1,38) 0,0825 obs*r-squared 3,630540 prob. chi-square(1) 0,0567 uji heteroskedastisitas ecm heteroskedasticity test: white f-statistic 0,686829 prob. f(32,14) 0,8152 obs*r-squared 28,71131 prob. chi-square(32) 0,6338 scaled explained ss 16,45369 prob. chi-square(32) 0,9895 jesp | jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan article type: research paper trade and environment in indonesia: case study of asean-china free trade agreement muhammad azizurrohman*1 and romi bhakti hartarto2 abstract: in recent decades, the debate about the impacts of economic globaliza¬tion through free trade has become attention to public policy. one important issue to address is related to environmental quality. it has been fifteen years since asean-china free trade agreement (acfta) was firstly signed and the total trade flows between asean countries and china have grown around us$ 20 billion per year. under the acfta commitment, tariff rates for exports from china to asean countries have been reduced gradually and so have the tariff rates of asean exports to china. this paper attempts to investigate whether expanded trade causes environmental damage in indonesia. as the main largest economy in asean, indonesia has greatly contributed to the pollution released in asean area. using industrial pollution projection system developed by world bank in 1995, it has been found that the estimated amounts of pollution have been increasing by approximately five times in indonesia after fifteen years of acfta implementa¬tion. even though the share of export of most polluting sectors has been de¬creasing, its contribution on the pollution intensity remains the largest. since chemicals become the most polluting sector with its rapid growing in export to china, this sector needs to be considered in trade negotiations in order to lessen negative impacts of trade to the environment. keywords: internal control weaknesses, local government size, local government complexity, human development index, technological use. jel classification: f13, q53, f18 introduction in recent years, trade liberalization has brought the issue of the relationship between trade and environment whether it has positive or negative impact on the environment. the production of goods, either they are exported or imported, would have environmental impacts like other production. with expanded trade, it is generally believed that the trading nations would be beneficial through in-creasing efficiency and greater wealth. however, what if the expanded trade leads to environmental degradation? since trade always involves two or more nations, the burden of environmental externalities can be transnational and it will cause significant problems when international trade agreements do not explicitly include any regulations for environmental protection. affiliation: 1 national chiayi university. taiwan (r.o.c.). 2 universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta. indonesia. *correspondence: m.azizur96@gmail.com this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.20.1.5010 citation: azizurrohman, m., & hartarto, r.b. (2019). trade and environment in indonesia: case study of aseanchina free trade agreement. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 20(1), 1-10. article history received: january 2019 accepted: april 2019 http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp azizurrohman & hartarto trade and environment in indonesia: case study of asean-china free trade agreement jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 2 there are many ways that expanded trade may encourage the entire world production which leads to increase the pollution intensity and environmental damage. trade activities always involve energy use to transport goods overseas resulting on air pollution. for example, the kenyan exporters of horticulture products deliver the flowers to europe by jet in which the energy consumed in jet fuel causes environmental issue. on the other hand, displacing peasant with larger-scale export agriculture and growing crops focusing on export also will damage the environment. they will use their economic power to demand environmentally damaging input subsidies which lead to over-irrigate, over-mechanize, and overspray (harris, 2004). over-spraying the crops through pesticides will cause harmful effects for health. the harvested products will contain the leftover of hazardous chemicals which are dangerous to consume. even though expanded trade seems to have negative impacts on the environment, it also has beneficial effects. based on theory of comparative advantage, trade encourages the trading nations to be more efficient in exploiting their resources and avoiding the waste. trade expansion can spread the environmentally friendly technology to many developing countries through replacing the high-polluting power plants with modern, highly efficient ones. transnational companies also play important role by introducing efficient technologies to develop cleaner process for industrial sectors. hence, the relationship between trade and environmental quality is somewhat complicated and needs to investigate further. previous studies have discussed about trade liberalization and environmental issues since 1970s, particularly after some trade negotiation rounds. trade expansion is strongly related to rapid growth of the global economy which leads to gradual degradation in the environment. the relationship between economic growth and environmental damage was theoretically depicted through environmental kuznets curve (grossman and krueger, 1991). this concept predicted three stages of environmental decay that it would rise at lower income levels, attain a maximum level at turning point income, and then decline. during the first stage, the nation is positioned at the early phase of industrialization and development, which is characterized by exploitation of natural re-sources and dirty technologies for production, causing the environmental decay. as time goes by, quality of life improves since people wealthier and they tend to demand for an environment-friendly society, making the government to pay attention on how to preserve environmental quality. shafik and bandopadhyay (1992) confirmed this proposition by finding a consistent and significant relationship between income and environ-mental quality indicators. an initial rise in income would be followed by an increase in pollution matter such as sulfur dioxide and then declined once the economy attained a given level of income. grossman and krueger (1995) predicted that the turning point of income would come before $8,000 income per capita. generally, this relationship has been established only in some areas of environmental degradation with immediate and visible effects, such as air pollution. the net effect of trade liberalization on environmental quality can be decomposed into three components: composition effect, scale effect, and technique effect (grossman and krueger, 1991). the composition effect occurs when trade is more open, causing azizurrohman & hartarto trade and environment in indonesia: case study of asean-china free trade agreement jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 3 specialization which makes a country to export products with abundant resources and import products with relatively scarce resources. the magnitude of the composition effect is based on the comparative advantage of the country whether it is in pollutionintensive sectors or less polluting sectors. the positive impact on local environment would emerge if a country exports less polluting sectors after trade liberalization. the scale effect comes from enhanced economic activities which are hazardous to the environment since it produces additional emissions. the technique effect takes place when cleaner production techniques are introduced which lead to lower level pollution per unit of output. then, the net effect for the environment is based on the combination of those components, not the individual component. it can be positive if the scale effect is less than the composition and technique effects, and negative if the opposite holds. some studies argued that trade liberalization has brought positive environmental consequences. grossman and krueger (1993) found that more liberal trade through easier access to us market has generated income growth in mexico to the level that was powerful enough to encourage the government for environmental protection. since mexico was characterized by labour-intensive industry and agriculture sectors in their export, pollution reduction was inevitably to take place. antweiler et al (1998) supported the argument that freer trade leads to pollution reduction as shown by their estimation that a rise in gdp per capita by 1 percent from trade liberalization will decrease the sulfur dioxide concentration about 1 percent. meanwhile, opposite results have been found in other studies, particularly in developing countries. developing countries are likely to specialize and export pollution intensive sectors due to their characteristics of lack of environmental regulations with greater capacity to absorb pollution. in this case, trade liberalization could hamper environmental quality. copeland and taylor (1994) concluded that liberalized trade increases pollution levels in south countries with low level of human capital and decreases pollution levels in north countries with high level of human capital. cole et al. (1998) estimated that the emissions in five pollutants (nitrogen dioxide, sulphur dioxide, carbon monoxide, suspended particular matter, and carbon dioxide) in most developing countries would increase after uruguay round of trade negotiations. based on the previous studies, trade liberalization may have positive or negative impacts on the environment depending on comparative advantage of the country. policy coordination among trading partners is very limited and the environmental issues are generally neglected in trade agreements. hence, linking better environmental management with trade negotiation is necessary to maintain the sustainability of the environment. this study will provide better understanding of the environmental consequences of free trade agreements (ftas) in the case of negotiation and implementation of asean-china free trade agreement (acfta). the relationship between asean and china has dramatically changed over the last 20 years. initially, china was considered as a potential threat to asean economies. however, since china has dynamic and enormous economy with its growing demand for asean products, asean views that china will be primary export market in the future azizurrohman & hartarto trade and environment in indonesia: case study of asean-china free trade agreement jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 4 which makes the members to benefit from freer trade with china. from china’s perspective, china wanted to make asean as its source of raw materials for industrialization (bernardino, 2004). as time goes by, asean and china built official contract together in 1991, a dialogue partner in 1996, asean-china joint cooperation committee and asean-china cooperation fund in 1997, and followed by a series of asean-china summits with its peak of asean+3 summit in november 2000 discussing freer trade along with japan and korea (hing and jalilian, 2008). on november 2002, china and asean member states signed the framework agreement on comprehensive economic cooperation covering investment and trade in goods and services, with acceleration of tariff reduction and elimination on eight agricultural products (live animals, fish, dairy products, meat and edible meat offal, live trees, vegetable and fruits and nuts, and other animal products) namely early harvest program (ehp) and a three-year time frame for implementation starting in 2004. then, the trade in goods agreement was signed in november 2004 which require both parties to gradually reduce and eliminate applied most favoured nation (mfn) tariff rates on tariff lines not covered by ehp within the agreed time frame. these tariff reduction or elimination programs classify traded goods into two groups: normal track and sensitive track. in the normal track formula, the mfn tariff rates of products listed are gradually reduced or eliminated from 1 january 2005 to 2010 for the asean-6 (indonesia, malaysia, philippines, singapore, thailand, and brunei) and china, and to 0% for newer asean countries (lao pdr, cambodia, myanmar, and vietnam) by 2015, as shown in table 1. normal track required each party to reduce to 0-5% the tariff rates for at least 40% of its rates lines no later than july 1, 2005, the tariff rates for at least 60% of its tariff lines no later than january 1, 2007, and the elimination of its tariff lines no later than january 1, 2010. since january 1, 2010, zero tariffs have been fully implemented on 6,682 tariff posts in 17 sectors: 12 in manufacturing and five in the agriculture, mining and maritime sectors. in the sensitive track, products listed are required to have their applied mfn rates reduced to end rates by mutually agreed dates. tariff lines in the sensitive track are then divided into the sensitive list and highly sensitive list. the mfn tariff rate for tariff lines on the sensitive list should be reduced to 20 percent no later than january 1, 2012 for asean-6 and china and january 1, 2015 for newer asean countries. the tariff reduction to 0 to 5 percent should be done no later than january 1, 2018 for asean-6 and china, and january 1, 2020 for newer asean members. meanwhile, for products in highly sensitive list, the tariff lines should be reduced to no more than 50 percent no later than january 1, 2015 for asean-6 and china, and january 1, 2018 for newer asean countries. table 2 and 3 summarize the tariff reduction schedules. azizurrohman & hartarto trade and environment in indonesia: case study of asean-china free trade agreement jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 5 table 1 normal track formula x: applied mfn tariff rate acfta mfn tariff rate 2005 2007 2009 2010 x ≥ 20% 20 12 5 0 15% ≤ x < 20% 15 8 5 0 10% ≤ x < 15% 10 8 5 0 5% < x < 10% 5 5 0 0 x ≤ 5% standstill standstill 0 0 source: icra indonesia comment (2011) table 2 sensitive track formula for asean-6 and china no later than january 2012 no later than january 2018 sensitive list 20% 0-5% highly sensitive list < 50% source: hing and jalilian (2008) table 3 sensitive track formula for new asean countries no later than january 2015 no later than january 2018 no later than january 2020 sensitive list 20% 0-5% highly sensitive list < 50% source: hing and jalilian (2008) these reduced trade barriers will favorably provide access to the chinese market and expand the export opportunities for countries producing goods with high demand in china such as raw materials and agricultural products. this opportunity would make indonesia potential to be one of the major beneficiaries of asean-china free trade area (acfta) since indonesia is the largest asean economies and abundant in resources. in the context of indonesia-china trade relationship, particularly after lower and eliminated tariff since 2005, china became the second largest trading partner of indonesia in terms of export value following japan, with mineral products such as coal as the major contributor. indonesia’s exports to china grew at the average annual rate of 11.56 percent during 2005-15. in relation to this, little research has been carried out in the context of environmental consequences of free trade in a specific country. this study aims to fill this knowledge gap by assessing the possible implications of trade on the environment from the perspective of a specific country, which is indonesia in this case. then, acfta was selected as a case study to estimate the possible impacts of fta on any change in the trade flows and the environment through the use of trade-environment matrix. azizurrohman & hartarto trade and environment in indonesia: case study of asean-china free trade agreement jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 6 research method to evaluate whether freer trade will lead to environmental degradation, the method has to be able to measure the environmental consequences of production activities caused by trade, and consider the interaction between trade, income, and environmental quality (hing and jalilian, 2008). in this study, we employed an adjusted method to estimate the effects of trade on pollution levels based on industrial pollution projection system from wheeler et al. (1999) in world bank. this method classified trade sectors into three categories based on the amount of pollution emitted by their production and developed trade-environment matrices to estimate pollution intensity. through this method, we can indicate the impact of trade on one feature of environmental deterioration which is pollution. even though this study realizes the shortcomings of using only pollution data to indicate the impact on the environment, this can be an initial point for further research. the adjusted method in this study estimated industrial emissions to the air, water and land and also the sum of emissions to all mediums using value of output, value added, and employment. to measure the impacts of trade on pollution levels, we use pollution intensity levels for all media emitted by physical volume of output valued at one million usd (see table a.1 in appendix). then, trade sectors are classified into three categories based on the pollution emission using the harmonized system (hs) for product classification: most polluting sectors or pollution-intensive sectors, referring to those with total toxic pollution of more than 1,500 pounds per million usd of production; moderately polluting sectors, referring to those with total toxic pollution level of 500 to 1,500 pounds per million usd of production; and least polluting sectors, referring to those with toxic pollution of less than 500 pounds per million usd of production (see table a.2 in appendix). then, this study will construct a trade-environment matrix using data from the export trade matrices from indonesia to china by assuming that increasing exports will lead to increase production and a simultaneous change in pollution levels. in the tradeenvironment matrix, the rows classified traded sectors based on their level of pollution emission. the first column records time frames in the trade relationship between indonesia and china; pre-agreement (2000); mfn tariff rates (2005); zero tariffs implementation (2010); and asean economic community (2015). the second column depicts the relative share of the product to total trade, while the third column presents estimated pollution intensity (epi). it is calculated from world bank study by wheeler et al (1999) to measure the pollution level generated by the value of final products in million usd by multiplying each value in the first column with its respective pollution intensity factors. result and discussion table 4 presents a trade-environment matrix for indonesia’s exports to china. it suggests that indonesia exported about $3.3 billion of the most polluting sectors to azizurrohman & hartarto trade and environment in indonesia: case study of asean-china free trade agreement jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 7 china in 2015, or 21.9 percent of total exports, with pollution intensity generated by the production estimated at 25 million pounds. even though its portion of total exports has been decreasing, its pollution intensity has been quintupled after fifteen years of acfta implementation and its contribution to pollution intensity still remained the largest. this significant increase is mostly due to the dramatic acceleration of export growth in chemicals sector in response to greater demands from china. table 4 trade-environment matrix for indonesia’s exports to china description value in usd million share (%) epi (thousand pounds) 2000 2005 2010 2015 20 00 20 05 20 10 20 15 2000 2005 2010 2015 base metals 25.1 360. 4 438. 8 631. 4 0.9 5.6 2.8 4.2 225. 9 3243. 6 3949. 2 5682. 6 chemicals 258. 1 700. 0 1194 .2 1167 .5 9.3 10. 8 7.6 7.8 3226 .3 8750. 0 1492 7.5 1459 3.8 plastics, hides, & leather 102. 4 113. 4 229. 6 252. 1 3.7 1.8 1.5 1.7 261. 5 310.0 607.3 715.3 pulp & paper 561. 2 554. 6 853. 1 1248 .1 20. 3 8.6 5.4 8.3 1964 .2 1941. 1 2985. 9 4368. 4 most polluting sector 946. 8 1728 .4 2715 .7 3299 .1 34. 2 26. 7 17. 3 21. 9 5677 .9 1424 4.7 2246 9.8 2536 0.0 machinery & electrical appliances 74.0 300. 1 555. 4 447. 5 2.7 4.6 3.5 3.0 37.0 150.1 277.7 223.8 mineral products 1035 .4 2947 .1 7434 .3 4978 .6 37. 4 45. 6 47. 4 33. 1 828. 3 2357. 7 5947. 4 3982. 9 textiles & apparel 126. 4 137. 5 300. 9 668. 8 4.6 2.1 1.9 4.4 88.5 96.3 210.6 468.2 rubber products 31.0 341. 0 1416 .1 507. 2 1.1 5.3 9.0 3.4 37.2 409.2 1699. 3 608.6 vehicles 5.6 42.2 55.2 62.3 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.4 4.5 33.8 44.2 49.8 misc. manufactured articles 8.1 16.0 29.6 57.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 4.9 9.6 17.8 34.4 moderately polluting sector 1280 .5 3783 .9 9791 .5 6721 .8 46. 3 58. 6 62. 4 44. 7 1000 .3 3056. 5 8197. 0 5367. 7 vegetable products 13.9 47.1 164. 3 252. 6 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.7 0.3 0.9 3.3 5.1 wood & wood articles 305. 8 79.5 266. 5 859. 9 11. 1 1.2 1.7 5.7 122. 3 31.8 106.6 344.0 optical, precision & musical instrument 1.5 8.1 24.5 93.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.6 3.2 9.8 37.2 stone/cement/cera mics 21.2 35.5 33.0 10.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 6.4 10.7 9.9 3.2 prepared foodstuffs 160. 4 705. 5 2555 .2 3248 .8 5.8 10. 9 16. 3 21. 6 32.1 141.1 511.0 649.8 footwear 3.4 15.9 56.2 314. 1 0.1 0.2 0.4 2.1 1.7 8.0 28.1 157.1 live animals 32.8 58.0 84.2 244. 9 1.2 0.9 0.5 1.6 0.7 1.2 1.7 4.9 antiques & works of art 0.1 0.0 0.8 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 least polluting sectors 539. 1 949. 6 3184 .7 5024 .7 19. 5 14. 7 20. 3 33. 4 164. 0 196.8 670.4 1201. 1 source: calculation based on trade data from un comtrade azizurrohman & hartarto trade and environment in indonesia: case study of asean-china free trade agreement jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 8 since the production activities in these sectors generate less pollution than the pollution intensive sectors, the pollution effects of these exports were less significant, as shown by the epi level of 5 million pounds. nevertheless, the amount of pollution emitted by these exports was about five times larger in 2015 than in 2000. this is mainly due to the improving export performance of mining from rising prices with its peak in 2010, particularly coal as the major contributor in the mineral sector representing around 30 percent of the total export to china. the trade-environment matrix also demonstrates that indonesia generated about onethird of its total exports to china from the least polluting sectors. even though the share of the least polluting sectors has been increasing after fifteen years of the acfta implementation, the future effect of these trade sectors on pollution levels is likely to be infinitesimal concerning that the estimated epi of just around 1 million pounds. conclusion this study has exposed the general pat-tern of trade and environmental quality in indonesia as the largest economies in asean after the implementation of acfta. acfta has led indonesia to shift the pattern of its export basket to china. it has been found that after fifteen years implementation of acfta, the share of most polluting sectors in total export has been declining from 34.2 percent to 21.9 percent, while the share of least polluting sectors in total export has been increasing from 19.5 percent to 33.4 percent. however, the estimated pollution is still high, even quintupled from 6.8 million pounds to 31.9 million pounds over fifteen years. the significant rise in the estimated pollution mostly came from higher demand of the chemical products by china particularly after the implementation of acfta. it has been recorded that the export value of chemicals to china has been gradual-ly increasing, leaving the estimated pollution growing quickly. even, the contribution of pollution generated by chemical sector to-ward total estimated pollution reached 45.8 percent. since acfta does not contain agreement for cooperation on environmental problems due to trade liberalization, chemical sector is necessary to be considered in trade negotiations in order to mitigate negative impact of freer trade to the environment since it is categorized as most polluting sector with significant increase in the export production. in summary, this study asserts that trade could be a source of environmental issues, particularly in countries without strong regulatory frameworks or management system. hence, this study recommends that environmental issues need to be considered in trade negotiations between asean and china in order to lessen any negative impact of trade to the environment. references antweiler, w., copeland, b.r. and taylor, m.s. (1998). is free trade good for the environment?. nber working paper series, 6707. https://doi.org/10.3386/w6707 https://doi.org/10.3386/w6707 azizurrohman & hartarto trade and environment in indonesia: case study of asean-china free trade agreement jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 9 bernardino, n. y. (2004). the asean-china free trade area: issues and prospects. regional workshop paper, 6 (manila: asia-pacific network for food sovereignty). cole, m.a., rayner, a.j. and bates, j.m. (1998). trade liberalization and the environment: the case of the uruguay round. world economy, 21(3), 337-347. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9701.00133 copeland, b.r. and taylor, m.s. (1994). north-south trade and the environment. quarterly journal of economics, 109(3), 755-787. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118421 grossman, g.m. and krueger, a.b. (1991). environmental impacts of a north american free trade agreement. nber working paper, 3914. https://doi.org/10.3386/w3914 grossman, g.m. and krueger, a.b. (1993). environmental impacts of a north american free trade agreement. in p. garder (ed.), the u.s. mexico free trade agreement. (cambridge, massa-chusetts, usa: mit press). grossman, g.m. and krueger, a.b. (1995). economic growth and the environment. quarterly journal of economics, 110(2), 353-77. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118443 harris, m.j. 2004. trade and the environment. tuft university. hing, v. and jalilian, h. (2008). environmental impact of the asean-china free trade agreement on the greater mekong sub-region. cambodia development resource institute. shafik, n. and bandyopadhyay, s. (1992). economic growth and environmental quality: time series and cross-section evidence. policy research working paper, wps904 (washington, d.c: world bank). wheeler, d., hettige, h., martin, p., and singh, m. (1999). the industrial pollution projection system. environment, infrastructure and agriculture division (prdei) of the policy research department (washington, d.c: world bank). https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-1431 appendix table a.2 summary of pollution intensity classification by sector category 1 most polluting sector category 2 moderately polluting sector category 3 least polluting sector definition toxtot ≥ 1500ponds/usd million 500 ponds/usd million < toxtot < 1500ponds/usdmillion toxtot ≤ 500pnds/usd million section (hs) metals (hs71-83), chemicals (hs 28-38), plastics (hs39), pulp and paper (hs47-49), hides and leather (hs41-43) machinery and electrical appliances (hs84-85), mineral products (hs25-27), textiles and apparel (hs 50-63), rubber products (hs 40), vehicles (hs 86-89) misc. manufactured articles (hs 93-96) vegetable products (hs6-14), wood and wood articles (4446), opticals, precision and musical instruments (hs 90-92), stone/cement/ceramics (hs 6870), prepared food stuffs (hs15-24), footwear (hs 64-67) source: hing and jalilian (2008) https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9701.00133 https://doi.org/10.2307/2118421 https://doi.org/10.3386/w3914 https://doi.org/10.2307/2118443 https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-1431 azizurrohman & hartarto trade and environment in indonesia: case study of asean-china free trade agreement jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 10 table a.1 pollution intensity by medium with respect to total value of output (pollution in pounds/1987 usd million) isic description toxair toxwat toxland toxtot 351 industrial chemicals 5646.3 1972.6 14318.1 21936.9 372 non-ferrous metals 2988.3 116.1 7921.0 11025.3 371 iron and steel 985.2 350.2 5647.1 6982.4 323 leather products 1532.4 64.1 3548.7 5145.2 341 pulp and paper 2208.5 554.2 893.7 3656.4 353 petroleum refineries 607.9 45.8 2574.1 3227.8 352 other chemicals 1393.7 39.9 1578.9 3012.5 356 plastic products 1896.0 4.6 561.7 2462.4 381 fabricated metal products 829.3 43.8 916.9 1789.9 332 furniture, except metal 1390.6 1.0 125.3 1516.9 361 pottery, china, earthenware 456.3 1.0 746.6 1203.8 383 electrical machinery 596.1 6.2 596.1 1198.5 355 rubber products 768.0 1.9 406.6 1176.5 369 other non-metallic mineral prod. 407.8 6.8 600.1 1014.6 321 textiles 511.6 94.6 304.4 910.6 384 transport equipment 552.5 2.1 238.4 793.0 390 other manufactured products 403.6 5.2 177.1 586.0 354 misc. petroleum and coal products 398.1 11.7 117.2 526.9 382 non-electrical machinery 301.1 7.5 199.3 507.9 385 professional & scientific equipment 329.9 1.0 163.2 494.1 324 footwear, except rubber or plastic 472.4 0.1 14.0 486.4 342 printing and publishing 413.1 0.0 55.8 468.9 331 wood products, except furniture 317.2 1.0 73.8 392.0 362 glass and products 211.5 17.1 136.1 364.8 314 tobacco 271.8 1.8 26.9 300.6 311 food products 47.7 13.4 183.0 244.1 313 beverages 84.5 12.5 65.7 162.8 322 wearing apparel, except footwear 12.7 0.0 4.8 17.5 source: wheeler et al (1999) microsoft word 03-evi jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 2, oktober 2014, hlm.118-126 penilaian willingness to pay perbaikan kualitas udara menggunakan contingent valuation method rosalina1, evi gravitiani2 1,2 fakultas ekonomika dan bisnis universitas sebelas maret surakarta jalan ir. sutami 36a surakarta 57126, indonesia e-mail korespondensi: rosalinabernadeta@gmail.com naskah diterima: februari 2014; disetujui: agustus 2014 abstract: the economic growth in the urban areas is characterized by the growth of the industrial sector and traffic density. the increase in the amount of factories and motorized vehicles caused an increase in gas emission in the air. residual smoke from factory production processes and gas emission are stationary and mobile sources of pollution, which interfere with the air quality in the urban areas. these effects human health negatively. this research was calculating the willingness to pay (wtp) with the contingent valuation method. this research aims to determine the public awareness to keep their environment clean. it is indicated by people’s wtp on policy implication that offered once every year. the strategy offered to diminish the stationary sources of pollution is reforestation. while the strategies offered to diminish the mobile sources of pollution are: 1) improvement in transportation infrastructure; 2) reforestation; 3) replacement of old motorized vehicles; and 4) the use of alternative roads on traffic peak hours. the strategies to diminish the mobile sources of pollution were ranked by an analytical hierarchy process (ahp) according to people’s preference in the implementation. the strategies have implications in four consecutive years. the research result showed that the level of wtp of the society was still low. the determinant factors of the wtp are estimated by the ordered probit method. the estimated results showed that the income of the respondents compared to health costs, caused by damaged lungs, eyes, and nose, has an influence on the wtp. while the age, education, and distance to the polluted area of the respondents are not significantly influencing the wtp. keywords: urban air quality; willingness to pay; ordered probit method; reforestation jel classification: q51, q53 abstrak: pembangunan ekonomi di perkotaan ditandai dengan perkembangan di sektor industri dan diikuti oleh aktivitas transportasi yang padat. peningkatan jumlah pabrik dan kendaraan bermotor menghasilkan gas buang di udara yang semakin meningkat. asap sisa proses industrialisasi dan gas buang kendaraan bermotor (emisi) menjadi polusi sumber tidak bergerak dan sumber bergerak yang mengganggu kualitas udara di perkotaan dan berdampak buruk terhadap kesehatan. studi ini menghitung kesediaan masyarakat membayar (wtp) terhadap kebijakan memperbaiki kualitas udara dengan tujuan mengetahui kesadaran masyarakat menjaga lingkungannya. kesediaan membayar masyarakat ditunjukkan dengan seberapa besar masyarakat mau membayar kebijakan yang ditawarkan tiap setahun sekali. kebijakan yang ditawarkan untuk polusi sumber tidak bergerak adalah penghijauan sedangkan untuk polusi sumber bergerak ada empat kebijakan. empat kebijakan untuk polusi sumber tidak bergerak diranking dengan analisis ahp dengan urutan perbaikan infrastruktur, penghijauan, penggantian kendaraan bermesin tua, dan pengalihan jalur padat. hasil menunjukkan bahwa tingkat wtp masyarakat masih rendah. faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi wtp masyarakat adalah pendapatan dan biaya kesehatan paru-paru, mata, dah hidung. faktor usia, tingkat pendidikan, dan jarak polusi terhadap responden tidak begitu berpengaruh. kata kunci: kualitas udara; kesediaan masyarakat membayar; ordered probit method; penghijauan klasifikasi jel: q51, q53 penilaian willingness to pay (rosalina, evi gravitiani) 119 pendahuluan lingkungan hidup yang mengalami kerusakan, mengakibatkan terjadinya perubahan iklim yang berdampak kerugian bagi perikehidupan masyarakat baik di sisi sosial maupun ekonomi. upaya mengurangi laju kerusakan lingkungan dan pemulihan kualitas lingkungan terus dilakukan tidak saja oleh pemerintah namun dilakukan pula oleh semua elemen masyarakat. pada tahun 2009, kementerian lingkungan hidup sebagai salah satu elemen pemerintah yang ikut bertanggung jawab terhadap terjadinya perubahan iklim, mulai mengembangkan alat ukur sederhana yang disebut dengan indeks kualitas lingkungan hidup (iklh). iklh dapat membantu untuk mempertajam prioritas program dan kegiatan dalam peningkatan kualitas lingkungan hidup. iklh difokuskan pada air, udara, dan lahan hutan. indikator ini membantu untuk mengetahui bagaimana kondisi lingkungan hidup di tiap wilayah dan kerusakan-kerusakan yang terjadi khususnya akibat perubahan iklim. pencemaran udara di perkotaan merupakan permasalahan yang tidak dapat diabaikan. peningkatan penggunaan kendaraan bermotor dan konsumsi energi di kotakota, jika tidak dikendalikan, akan memperparah pencemaran udara, kemacetan, dan dampak perubahan iklim yang menimbulkan kerugian kesehatan, produktivitas dan ekonomi bagi negara. kota semarang menjadi salah satu pusat perdagangan menjadi latar belakang tumbuhnya industri di kota semarang. jumlah industri kota semarang adalah 377, dengan 142 industri besar dan 235 industri sedang. industri banyak tersebar di kecamatan genuk yaitu 91 industri sedang dan 35 industri besar. kecamatan yang memiliki sebaran industri terbanyak kedua adalah kecamatan ngaliyan yaitu 22 industri sedang dan 23 industri besar. surat kabar suara merdeka (2/29/2009) menuliskan berita mengenai sebagian warga jrakah mengeluhkan pencemaran udara yang ditimbulkan salah satu pabrik besi baja di jalan raya walisongo, yaitu mengakibatkan anak-anak menderita flek paruparu akibat asap dan partikel yang berasal dari dapur pabrik baja, yaitu asap hitam, asap putih, dan material yang tak kasat mata, namun beraroma tajam. warga menyatakan bahwa material tak kasat mata dianggapnya sebagai material yang paling mengganggu, karena tidak berwujud, tapi baunya menyengat di hidung. warga menduga bahwa material tersebut yang menyebabkan sebagian warga, terutama anakanak menderita flek paru-paru. salah satu warga menyatakan, ada 10 anak yang terkena flek paru-paru di wilayah kelurahan jrakah. anak-anak yang terkena flek pertumbuhannya akan terganggu, selain karena batuk-batuk, badan mereka tetap kecil walaupun makannya banyak. kementerian lingkungan hidup melalui asisten deputi urusan pengendalian pencemaran udara (asdep ppu) sumber bergerak, deputi menteri lingkungan hidup bidang pengendalian pencemaran lingkungan melaksanakan kegiatan evaluasi kualitas udara perkotaan (ekup) sebagai pelaksanaan dari program langit biru dan transportasi berkelanjutan. pada tahun 2012 ekup diadakan di 44 kota di indonesia, terjadi peningkatan setelah tahun 2011 mengevaluasi sebanyak 25 kota. kota-kota yang akan dievaluasi sebelumnya di kategorikan dalam kota metropolitan, kota besar, kota sedang, dan kota kecil. jawa tengah diwakili oleh dua kota, yaitu semarang sebagai kota metropolitan, dan surakarta sebagai kota besar. kota metropolitan yang dievaluasi disini ada 14 kota, kota besar ada 13 kota, dan kota sedang dan kecil ada 17 kota. hasil evaluasi kualitas udara perkotaan kementerian lingkungan hidup 2012, menunjukkan bahwa kota di jawa tengah khusunya semarang berada dalam zona f, yakni zona arus terhambat, kecepatan rendah, volume di atas kapasitas, banyak berhenti. industri dan transportasi menjadi sektor yang sangat bersinggungan langsung dengan masyarakat. kedua sektor ini-industri sebagai sumber tidak bergerak dan transportasi sebagai sumber bergerak-mengeluarkan asap dan gas sisa pembakaran yang menyebabkan penurunan kualitas udara dan mengganggu kesehatan. masalah polusi udara ini membutuhkan kebijakan yang dapat memperbaiki kualitas udara di perkotaan ini. kebijakan yang ditawarkan untuk mengatasi polusi sumber tidak bergerak adalah penghijauan, sedangkan kebijakan untuk polusi sumber tidak bergerak adalah perbaikan jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 2, oktober 2014:118-126 120 infrastruktur, penghijauan, penggantian kendaraan bermesin tua dengan kendaraan bermesin baru dan penghijauan. metode penelitian jenis dan sumber data data yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah data primer. studi ini menggunakan metode survei kepada masyarakat kota semarang yang terkena langsung dampak dari pencemaran udara baik dari sumber bergerak (transportasi) maupun sumber tidak bergerak (industri). secara umum, pusat polusi berada di kawasan semarang selatan, semarang barat, dan tugu, karena lokasi tersebut dekat pusat pemerintahan kota semarang dan kawasan industri khususnya industri besi dan baja, sehingga arus lalu lintas sangat padat dan polusi dari industri sering mengganggu pemukiman warga sekitar. polusi dari sumber bergerak diambil di daerah sekitar jalan raya yang kandungan gas karbon monoksida (co) melampaui ambang batas udara ambien. indikator gas co digunakan karena gas tersebut yang paling banyak dihasilkan oleh kendaraan bermotor. kawasan jalan raya yang dinilai kandungan gas co nya melampaui ambang batas udara ambien tampak dalam tabel 1. polusi sumber tidak bergerak diambil dari industri besi dan baja terletak di kawasan industri yang terkluster di kecamatan semarang barat dan kecamatan tugu, dapat dilihat pada tabel 2 (lampiran). alat analisis metode pengumpulan data yang digunakan adalah mewawancarai secara langsung dengan pihak-pihak yang terkait dalam obyek penelitian, mengadakan pengamatan langsung pada obyek yang diteliti dalam hal ini masyarakat jawa tengah dan membaca literatur-literatur yang ada dalam perpustakaan. populasi dalam studi ini adalah seluruh masyarakat di kecamatan semarang selatan, kecamatan semarang barat khususnya kelurahan kalibanteng kulon dan ngemplaksimongan, dan kecamatan tugu khususnya kelurahan jrakah dan kelurahan tugurejo. alasan mengambil wilayah studi di daerah ini, karena wilayah-wilayah tersebut yang terkena dampak paling tinggi akibat polusi dari industri dan transportasi. sampel adalah bagian anggota populasi yang diambil menurut prosedur tertentu sehingga dapat mewakili populasinya. sampel agar dapat mewakili populasinya maka penetapan jumlah sampel studi dilakukan dengan cara menggunakan rumus slovin (sevilla, 1993) sebagai berikut: 21 n ne 1) di mana n mewakili jumlah sampel yang digunakan; n mewakili jumlah populasi; e mewakili nilai kritis atau batas kesalahan 10% metode analisis yang digunakan adalah deskriptif, probit bertingkat dan analytical hierarchy process (ahp). metode deskriptif digunakan untuk menghitung jumlah dan persentase responden dengan tingkat wtp tertentu. metode probit bertingkat digunakan untuk menghitung probabilitas kesediaan masyarakat dalam membayar kebijakan yang telah ditawarkan dan mengetahui besar pengaruh variabel independen terhadap besar kecilnya wtp dalam bahasan marginal effect. model yang digunakan dalam probit bertingkat adalah sebagai berikut: tabel 1. kawasan yang melampaui ambang batas udara ambien lokasi baku mutu udara (co) µg / m3 kandungan co µg / m3 kecamatan kawasan bundaran kalibanteng 15.000 20.610 semarang barat kawasan bundaran tugu muda 15.000 17.175 semarang selatan penilaian willingness to pay (rosalina, evi gravitiani) 121 wtpbrgrk = α0 + α1inc + α2 cparu + α3 cmata + α4 chidung 2) di mana: wtptkbrgrk adalah variabel kemauan responden untuk membayar kebijakan penghijauan; inc adalah variabel income, pendapatan responden per bulan; cparu adalah variabel cost paru, mewakili biaya yang dikeluarkan untuk kesehatan paru; cmata adalah variabel cost mata mewakili biaya yang dikeluarkan untuk kesehatan mata, chidung adalah cost hidung mewakili biaya yang dikeluarkan untuk kesehatan hidung analytical hierarchy process (ahp) digunakan untuk melihat preferensi tingkat kepentingan responden terhadap kebijakan untuk diaplikasikan sesuai urutan preferensinya. (3) di mana: goal: preferensi pelaksanaan; kebijakan; kebijakan 1: perbaikan infrastruktur, kebijakan 2: penghijauan; kebijakan 3: penggantian mesin kendaraan tua; kebijakan 4: pengalihan jalur padat hasil dan pembahasan hasil menunjukkan tingkat wtp masyarakat masih rendah. responden penerima dampak polusi sumber tidak bergerak maupun bergerak rata-rata hanya bersedia membayar kebijakan di bawah rp40.000. sumber tidak bergerak responden penerima dampak polusi tak bergerak diberi kebijakan penanaman pohon dan didapatkan nilai wtp responden penerima dampak polusi tak bergerak seperti di tabel 4. mayoritas responden bersedia membayar kurang dari rp40.000. responden menyebutkan bahwa penanaman pohon kurang efektif, yang pertama mereka tidak dapat menerima dampak secara langsung, kedua polusi akibat sumber tidak bergerak merupakan tanggung jawab dari perusahaan, jadi perusahaan yang seharusnya membayar bukan dari masyarakat sekitar. tabel 4. wtp penghijauan untuk penerima dampak polusi sumber tidak bergerak kode wtp jumlah responden % 0 wtp < 40.0000 20 38 1 40.000 ≤ wtp < 60.000 14 27 2 60.000 ≤ wtp < 75.000 4 8 3 75.000 ≤ wtp < 100.000 11 21 4 100.000 ≤ wtp 3 6 jumlah 52 100 tabel 5. hasil estimasi probabilitas kelompok besaran wtp kebijakan penghijauan kode kelompok besaran wtp probabilitas prob (wtp = 0) prob (wtp < rp40.000,-) 0,7054 prob (wtp = 1) prob (rp40.000,≤ wtp < rp60.000,-) 0,1871 prob (wtp = 2) prob (rp60.000,≤ wtp < rp75.000,-) 0,0354 prob (wtp = 3) prob (rp75.000,≤ wtp < rp100.000,-) 0,0643 prob (wtp = 4) prob (wtp ≥ rp100.000,-) 0,0078 hasil menunjukkan bahwa probabilitas kebijakan penghijauan untuk memiliki nilai wtp di bawah rp40.000,(wtp=0) adalah 70,54%. probabilitas kebijakan penghijauan memiliki nilai wtp antara rp40.000,sampai dengan kurang dari rp60.000,(wtp=1) adalah 18,71%. probabilitas kebijakan penghijauan memiliki nilai wtp antara rp60.000,sampai dengan kurang dari rp75.000,(wtp=2) adalah 3,54%. probabilitas kebijakan penghijauan memiliki nilai wtp antara rp75.000,sampai dengan kurang dari rp100.000.(wtp=3) adalah 6,43%. probabilitas kebijakan penghijauan goal kebijakan 1 kebijakan 2 kebijakan 3 kebijakan 4 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 2, oktober 2014:118-126 122 memiliki nilai wtp di atas rp100.000.(wtp= 4) adalah 0,78%. aplikasi dari tabel 6 dapat diilustrasikan apabila terjadi peningkatan pendapatan sebesar rp100.000,-, maka secara berturut-turut akan menyebabkan probabilitas wtp kurang dari rp40.000,bertambah sebesar 0,0790048 atau 7,9%; probabilitas wtp di kelompok kedua antara rp40.000,sampai dengan rp60.000, bertambah sebesar 0,0209552 atau 2,09%; probabilitas wtp di kelompok ketiga antara rp60.000,sampai dengan rp75.000,bertambah sebesar 0,0039648 atau 0,39%; probabilitas wtp di kelompok keempat antara rp75.000, sampai dengan rp100.000,bertambah sebesar 0,0072016 atau 0,72% dan probabilitas wtp di kelompok kelima lebih dari rp100.000,bertambah sebesar 0,0008736 atau 0,08%, dengan asumsi variabel lain konstan. perubahan yang terjadi apabila biaya untuk kesehatan paru (cparu) naik menjadi 10.000 rupiah, maka secara berturut-turut akan menyebabkan probabilitas wtp kurang dari rp40.000,bertambah sebesar 0,1149802 atau 11,49%; probabilitas wtp di kelompok antara rp40.000,sampai dengan rp60.000,bertambah sebesar 0,0304973 atau 3,05%; probabilitas wtp di kelompok antara rp60.000,sampai dengan rp75.000,bertambah sebesar 0,0057702 atau 0,58%; probabilitas wtp di kelompok keempat antara rp75.000,sampai dengan rp100.000,bertambah sebesar bertambah sebesar 0,0104809 atau 1,05% dan probabilitas wtp di kelompok kelima lebih dari rp100.000,bertambah sebesar 0,0012714 atau 0,12%, dengan asumsi variabel lain konstan. perubahan yang terjadi apabila biaya untuk kesehatan mata (cmata) naik menjadi 10.000 rupiah, maka secara berturut-turut akan menyebabkan probabilitas wtp kurang dari rp40.000,bertambah sebesar 0,712454 atau 71,24%; probabilitas wtp di kelompok antara rp40.000,sampai dengan rp60.000,bertambah sebesar 0,188971 atau 18,90%; probabilitas wtp di antara rp60.000,sampai dengan rp75.000,bertambah sebesar 0,035754 atau 3,57%; probabilitas wtp di kelompok keempat antara rp75.000,sampai dengan rp100.000, bertambah sebesar bertambah sebesar 0,064943 atau 6,50% dan probabilitas wtp di kelompok kelima lebih dari rp100.000,bertambah sebesar 0,007878 atau 0,79%, dengan asumsi variabel lain konstan. perubahan yang terjadi apabila biaya untuk kesehatan hidung (chidung) naik menjadi rp10.000,maka secara berturut-turut akan menyebabkan probabilitas wtp kurang dari rp40.000,bertambah sebesar 0,3012058 atau 30,12%; probabilitas wtp di kelompok antara rp40.000,sampai dengan rp60.000, bertambah sebesar 0,0798917 atau 7,99%; probabilitas wtp di kelompok antara rp60.000, sampai dengan rp75.000,bertambah sebesar 0,0151158 atau 1,51%; probabilitas wtp di kelompok antara rp75.000,sampai dengan rp100.000,bertambah sebesar 0,0274561 atau 2,74% dan probabilitas wtp di kelompok kelima lebih dari rp100.000,bertambah sebesar 0,0033306 atau 0,33%, dengan asumsi variabel lain konstan. kebijakan yang ditawarkan hanya penghijauan. kebijakan penghijauan ini alur dapat diserahkan langsung kepada masyarakat dalam memilih jenis tanaman dan jumlah yang akan ditanam, atau dapat ditentukan pemerintah berdasarkan rata-rata wtp responden penerima dampak polusi sumber tidak bergerak. tabel 6. marginal effect variabel-variabel independen terhadap probabilitas wtp responden no variabel independen probabilitas wtp responden (wtp=0) (wtp=1) (wtp=2) (wtp=3) (wtp=4) 1 inc 7,90048e-07 2,09552e-07 3,9648e-08 7,2016e-08 8,736e-09 2 cparu 1,1498e-05 3,04973e-06 5,7702e-07 1,04809e-06 1,2714e-07 3 cmata 7,12454e-05 1,88971e-05 3,5754e-06 6,4943e-06 7,878e-07 4 chidung 3,01206e-05 7,98917e-06 1,51158e-06 2,74561e-06 3,3306e-07 penilaian willingness to pay (rosalina, evi gravitiani) 123 polusi sumber bergerak responden penerima dampak polusi dari sumber bergerak ditawarkan empat kebijakan untuk mengatasi polusi dari transportasi lalu lintas untuk mengetahui tingkat wtp mereka. kebijakan yang ditawarkan adalah perbaikan infrastruktur transportasi, pengalihan transportasi jalur padat, penggantian kendaraan mesin tua, dan penghijauan. kebijakan ini ditawarkan untuk memperbaiki transportasi agar dapat mengembalikan kualitas udara. kebijakan pertama adalah perbaikan infrastruktur transportasi atau sering disebut perbaikan prasarana transportasi. sarana transportasi meliputi sistem jalan (jalur angkutan umum dalam kota, bus luar kota, kendaraan pribadi, jalur rel kereta, dan walking area), drainase, dan area parkir. kebijakan kedua adalah pengalihan jalur padat. jalur-jalur padat di semarang berada disekitar bundaran kalibanteng dan bundaran tugu muda karena merupakan pusat pemerintahan dan pusat bisnis. kebijakan ini menyediakan akses jalan baru dengan fasilitas memadahi seperti jalur yang biasa digunakan dengan tujuan mengarahkan masyarakat agar tidak hanya melewati jalur umum untuk mencapai tujuan tersebut tetapi juga jalur-jalur yang akan disediakan untuk mengurai kepadatan satu jalur. kebijakan yang ketiga adalah mengganti kendaraan bermesin tua. kebijakan ini disarankan dengan dasar bahwa kendaraan dengan mesin tua memiliki emisi gas beracun yang tinggi dan sering mengeluarkan asap hitam yang mengganggu kesehatan. kebijakan ini menghimbau agar masyarakat maupun pengusaha yang memiliki kendaraan pribadi maupun kendaraan umum yang mesinnya sudah tidak layak atau mengeluarkan asap melebihi ambang emisi normal agar mengganti dengan mesin yang baru. kebijakan keempat adalah penghijauan. kebijakan penghijauan ini diutamakan di kawasan yang padat oleh lalu lintas dengan asumsi di kawasan yang padat lalu lintas mempunyai kandungan gas beracun yang lebih tinggi. keinginan membayar responden terhadap empat kebijakan tersebut dikelompokkan dalam tabel 7. tingkat wtp masyarakat terhadap kebijakan untuk mengatasi polusi dari sumber bergerak masih rendah. rata-rata wtp responden di bawah rp40.000,sebesar 38% atau sekitar 20 responden. probabilitas responden dalam memilih wtp ditunjukkan oleh tabel 8. tabel 8. hasil estimasi probabilitas kelompok besaran wtp kebijakan polusi sumber bergerak kode kelompok besaran wtp probabilitas prob (wtp = 0) prob (wtp < rp40.000,-) 0,5080 prob (wtp = 1) prob (rp40.000, ≤ wtp < rp60.000,-) 0,2406 prob (wtp = 2) prob (rp60.000, ≤ wtp < rp75.000,-) 0,1091 prob (wtp = 3) prob (rp75.000, ≤ wtp < rp100.000,-) 0,1142 prob (wtp = 4) prob (wtp ≥ rp100.000,-) 0,0281 hasil menunjukkan bahwa probabilitas kebijakan untuk polusi sumber bergerak memiliki nilai wtp di bawah rp40.000,(wtp=0) adalah 50,80%. probabilitas kebijakan untuk polusi sumber bergerak memiliki nilai wtp antara rp40.000,sampai dengan kurang dari rp60.000,(wtp=1) adalah 24,06%. probabilitas kebijakan untuk polusi sumber bergerak memiliki nilai wtp antara rp60.000,sampai dengan kurang dari rp75.000,(wtp=2) adalah 10,91%. tabel 7. wtp kebijakan untuk penerima dampak polusi sumber bergerak kode wtp jumlah responden % 0 wtp < 40.0000 20 38 1 40.000 ≤ wtp < 60.000 14 27 2 60.000 ≤ wtp < 75.000 6 12 3 75.000 ≤ wtp < 100.000 9 17 4 100.000 ≤ wtp 3 6 jumlah 52 100 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 2, oktober 2014:118-126 124 probabilitas kebijakan untuk polusi sumber bergerak memiliki nilai wtp antara rp75.000, sampai dengan kurang dari rp100.000,(wtp= 3) adalah 11,42%. probabilitas kebijakan untuk polusi sumber bergerak memiliki nilai wtp di atas rp100.000.(wtp=4) adalah 2,81%. aplikasi dari tabel 9 dapat diilustrasikan apabila terjadi peningkatan pendapatan sebesar rp100.000, maka secara berturut-turut akan menyebabkan probabilitas wtp kurang dari rp40.000,bertambah sebesar 0,0309372 atau 3,09%; probabilitas wtp di kelompok antara rp40.000,sampai dengan rp60.000,bertambah sebesar 0,01465254 atau 1,46 %; probabilitas wtp di kelompok antara rp60.000,sampai dengan rp75.000,bertambah sebesar: 0,00664419 atau 0,66%; probabilitas wtp di kelompok keempat antara rp75.000,sampai dengan rp100.000,bertambah sebesar: 0,00695478 atau 0,69% dan probabilitas wtp di kelompok kelima lebih dari rp100.000,bertambah sebesar: 0,00171129 atau 0,17%, dengan asumsi variabel lain konstan. perubahan yang terjadi apabila biaya untuk kesehatan paru (cparu) naik menjadi rp10.000,maka secara berturut-turut akan menyebabkan probabilitas wtp kurang dari rp40.000,bertambah sebesar 0,0247396 atau 24,74%; probabilitas wtp di kelompok antara rp40.000,sampai dengan rp60.000,bertambah sebesar 0,01171722 atau 1,17%; probabilitas wtp di kelompok ketiga antara rp60.000, sampai dengan rp75.000,bertambah sebesar 0,00531317 atau 0,53%; probabilitas wtp di kelompok keempat antara rp75.000,sampai dengan rp100.000,bertambah sebesar bertambah sebesar 0,00556154 atau 0,56% dan probabilitas wtp di kelompok kelima lebih dari rp100.000,bertambah sebesar 0,00136847 atau 0,13%, dengan asumsi variabel lain konstan. perubahan yang terjadi apabila biaya untuk kesehatan mata (cmata) naik menjadi 10.000 rupiah, maka secara berturut-turut akan menyebabkan probabilitas wtp kurang dari rp40.000,bertambah sebesar 0,196596 atau 19,66%; probabilitas wtp di kelompok antara rp40.000,sampai dengan rp60.000,bertambah sebesar 0,0931122 atau 9,31%; probabilitas wtp di kelompok antara rp60.000,sampai dengan rp75.000,bertambah sebesar 0,0422217 atau 4,22%; probabilitas wtp di kelompok keempat antara rp75.000,sampai dengan rp100.000,bertambah sebesar 0,0441954 atau 4,42% dan probabilitas wtp di kelompok kelima lebih dari rp100.000,bertambah sebesar 0,0108747 atau 1,09%, dengan asumsi variabel lain konstan. perubahan yang terjadi apabila biaya untuk kesehatan hidung (chidung) naik menjadi rp10.000,maka secara berturut-turut akan menyebabkan probabilitas wtp kurang dari rp40.000,bertambah sebesar 0,25654 atau tabel 10. hasil ahp kebijakan polusi sumber bergerak kebijakan infrastruktur pengurangan penggantian penanaman jml % ranking infrastruktur 0,36 0,44 0,35 0,45 1,60 40 1 pengurangan 0,17 0,15 0,13 0,20 0,64 16 4 penggantian 0,26 0,26 0,17 0,16 0,85 21 3 penanaman 0,21 0,15 0,35 0,20 0,91 23 2 jumlah 1 1 1 1 4 100 tabel 9. marginal effect variabel-variabel independen terhadap probabilitas wtp responden no variabel independen probabilitas wtp responden (wtp=0) (wtp=1) (wtp=2) (wtp=3) (wtp=4) 1 inc 3,09e-07 1,47e-07 6,64e-08 6,95e-08 1,71e-08 2 cparu 2,47e-06 1,17e-06 5,31e-07 5,56e-07 1,37e-07 3 cmata 1,97e-05 9,31e-06 4,22e-06 4,42e-06 1,09e-06 4 chidung 2,57e-05 1,22e-05 5,51e-06 5,77e-06 1,42e-06 penilaian willingness to pay (rosalina, evi gravitiani) 125 25,65%; probabilitas wtp di kelompok antara rp40.000,sampai dengan rp60.000,bertambah sebesar 0,121503 atau 12,15%; probabilitas wtp di kelompok ketiga antara rp60.000, sampai dengan rp75.000,bertambah sebesar 0,0550955 atau 5,51%; probabilitas wtp di kelompok keempat antara rp75.000,sampai dengan rp100.000,bertambah sebesar bertambah sebesar 0,057671 atau 5,76% dan probabilitas wtp di kelompok kelima lebih dari rp100.000,bertambah sebesar 0,0141905 atau 1,42%, dengan asumsi variabel lain konstan. kebijakan yang disarankan untuk polusi sumber bergerak ada 4, yaitu memperbaiki infrastruktur, mengalihkan jalur padat, mengurangi/mengganti kendaraan bermesin tua dan penghijauan. pelaksanaan kebijakan ini dilakukan selama empat tahun berturut-turut sesuai pilihan preferensi responden. pengukuran tingkat preferensi dianalisis menggunakan analytical hierarchy process (ahp) pada tabel 10. berdasarkan data tabel 10 menunjukkan tingkat preferensi dari kebijakan polusi dari sumber bergerak yang akan lebih jelas terlihat pada tabel 11. tabel 11. ranking kebijakan polusi sumber bergerak kebijakan % ranking infrastruktur 40 1 penanaman 23 2 penggantian 21 3 pengurangan 16 4 jumlah 100 ranking pertama diduduki oleh kebijakan infrastruktur atau perbaikan sarana prasarana transportasi. responden banyak yanng mendukung kebijakan peningkatan kualitas udara dengan perbaikan infrastruktur karena kebijakan ini diharapkan dapat mengurangi kepadatan lalu lintas, sehingga potensi polusi yang keluar dari kendaraan bermotor lebih kecil masuk ke dalam paru-paru. kebijakan diranking kedua adalah penanaman atau penghijauan. responden menyatakan cukup mendukung dan bersedia untuk membayar kebijakan penghijauan dengan alasan penghijauan dapat mengurangi kesumpekan sewaktu berkendara di jalan raya khususnya di jalur padat. alasan lain yang diungkapkan responden yaitu dengan responden membayar kebijakan penghijauan, responden dapat merasakan dampak langsung berupa pepohonan di sekitar jalur padat yang memberi kesejukan dan juga mengurangi bau dari gas-gas beracun kendaraan bermotor. kebijakan ranking ketiga adalah kebijakan penggantian atau mengganti kendaraan yang bermesin tua dengan mesin yang baru. ketidaksediaan responden terhadap kebijakan ini banyak berasal dari respoden yang berpenghasilan rendah dan dari sopir angkutan umum. alasan mereka yang pertama bahwa mesin tua tidak harus diganti baru, selain karena tidak ada biaya juga mesin itu dapat diperbaiki. alasan lain yang datang dari sopir angkutan umum, mereka merasa tidak bertanggung jawab terhadap mesin dari angkutan tersebut karena mereka hanya bekerja untuk mengemudikannya bukan untuk perawatannya. kebijakan terakhir yang dipilih oleh responden adalah kebijakan pengurangan atau mengurangi kendaraan di daerah yang padat dengan cara mengalihkan kendaraan di jalur padat ke jalur lain. rendahnya kesediaan responden untuk membayar kebijakan ini disebabkan oleh beberapa faktor di antaranya pesimisnya masyarakat terhadap jalur-jalur baru yang akan dibuat, karena menurut mereka kota semarang daerah yang banyak perbukitan dan rawan banjir. simpulan hasil estimasi wtp polusi sumber tidak bergerak kurang dari rp40.000,sebesar 38%, kelompok antara rp40.000,sampai dengan rp60.000, adalah 27%, kelompok antara rp 60.000 sampai dengan rp75.000,sebesar 8%, kelompok antara rp75.000,sampai dengan rp100.000,sebesar 21%, dan kelompok lebih dari rp100.000, sebesar 6%. hasil estimasi wtp polusi sumber bergerak kurang dari rp40.000,sebesar 38%, kelompok antara rp40.000,sampai dengan rp60.000,sebesar 27%, kelompok antara rp60.000,sampai dengan rp 75.000,sebesar 12%, kelompok antara rp75.000,sampai dengan jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 2, oktober 2014:118-126 126 rp100.000,sebesar 17% dan kelompok lebih dari rp100.000,sebesar 6%. probabilitas kebijakan penghijauan untuk memiliki nilai wtp di bawah rp40.000,(wtp =0) adalah 70,54%. probabilitas kebijakan penghijauan memiliki nilai wtp antara rp40.000, sampai dengan kurang dari rp60.000,(wtp= 1) adalah 18,71%. probabilitas kebijakan penghijauan memiliki nilai wtp antara rp60.000, sampai dengan kurang dari rp75.000,(wtp= 2) adalah 3,54%. probabilitas kebijakan penghijauan memiliki nilai wtp antara rp75.000, sampai dengan kurang dari rp100.000.(wtp = 3) adalah 6,43%. probabilitas kebijakan penghijauan memiliki nilai wtp di atas rp100.000. (wtp= 4) adalah 0,78%. probabilitas kebijakan untuk polusi sumber bergerak memiliki nilai wtp di bawah rp40.000, (wtp=0) adalah 50,80%. probabilitas kebijakan untuk polusi sumber bergerak memiliki nilai wtp antara rp40.000,sampai dengan kurang dari rp60.000,(wtp=1) adalah 24,06%. probabilitas kebijakan penghijauan memiliki nilai wtp antara rp60.000,sampai dengan kurang dari rp75.000,(wtp=2) adalah 10,91%. probabilitas kebijakan penghijauan memiliki nilai wtp antara rp75.000,sampai dengan kurang dari rp100.000.(wtp=3) adalah 11,42%. probabilitas kebijakan penghijauan memiliki nilai wtp di atas rp100.000.(wtp=4) adalah 2,81%. kebijakan yang ditawarkan untuk polusi sumber tidak bergerak adalah penghijauan, sedangkan untuk polusi sumber tidak bergerak ada empat kebijakan. hasil preferensi kebijakan untuk polusi sumber bergerak adalah perbaikan infrastruktur, penghijauan, penggantian kendaraan bermesin tua, dan pengalihan jalur padat. melihat hasil studi yang telah dilakukan, perlu pengkajian ulang terhadap kebijakan dan pelaksanaannya agar masyarakat lebih bisa melihat dampak positif dari tawaran kebijakan. pilihan tingkat wtp perlu disertai hal yang akan didapatkan apabila masyarakat mau membayar lebih mahal, agar mereka merasa harus membayar lebih umtuk mendapatkan hal yang lebih baik. populasi dan sampel yang digunakan juga dapat ditambah dengan melibatkan setiap kecamatan di kota semarang, agar lebih merata dan mengetahui permasalahan di setiap daerah. daftar pustaka amalia, m. 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(2002). mortality and morbidity benefits of air pollution absorption by woodland. social and environmental benefits of forestry. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 2, oktober 2014:118-126 126 lampiran tabel 2. lokasi perusahaan besi dan baja di kota semarang industri kecamatan industri pipa baja semarang barat industri baja lembaran lapis seng semarang barat industri besi beton tugu industri besi beton tugu industri pelapisan besi tugu sumber: statistik industri besar dan sedang kota semarang, 2009 tabel 3. jumlah populasi dan sampel no kecamatan kelurahan jumlah populasi sampel 1 semarang selatan randusari 8.316 27 2 semarang barat ngemplak simongan 12.438 28 kalibanteng kulon 7.640 25 3 tugu jerakah 2.759 7 tugurejo 6.312 17 total 37.465 104 microsoft word 02-ahmad jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 1, april 2013, hlm.9-17   model pemberdayaan buruh perempuan industri rumah tangga ahmad ma’ruf1, masmulyadi2 1 fakultas ekonomi, universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta jalan lingkar selatan, bantul, yogyakarta 55183 indonesia, phone: +62 274 387656 2 institute of public policy and economic studies (inspect) yogyakarta, jalan kenari r 13 sidoarum iii, godean, sleman, yogyakarta, 55564 indonesia, phone: +62 274 798342, e-mail korespondensi: macrov_jogja@yahoo.com naskah diterima: juli 2012; disetujui: februari 2013 abstract: the purposes of this study are: first, analyze and describe the characteristics of women workers who work at home industry in the province. second, identify and analyze the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and constraints in the empowerment of women workers in the province. third, exploring the various issues that support and hinder the empowerment of home industry women workers, and fourth, develop a model of empowerment of women workers in the home industry sector in diy. this study uses a participatory approach with the main subject of the laborers working in the home industry sector. focus studies on industrial centers spread across diy craft. result of this study are: first, the deepening of the few centers that exist in the diy industry is dynamics and different characteristics. second, empowerment of women workers of small industry include the social dimension, the social dimension of education and economy. third, women's empowerment strategy should take into account the characteristics of workers such as identity, age and duration of workers' education and work in the centers that exist in the location of this study, and fourth, to realize the empowerment of women workers needed better support the integration of local agencies and institutions of society (civil society), the private sector and educational institutions. keywords: community empowerment; participatory approach; women workers; home industry jel classification: j20, j23, d1 abstrak: tujuan studi ini, pertama, menganalisis dan mendeskripsikan karakteristik buruh perempuan yang bekerja di industri rumah tangga di diy, kedua, mengetahui dan menganalisis kekuatan, kelemahan, peluang, dan kendala dalam pemberdayaan buruh perempuan di diy, ketiga, melakukan eksplorasi terhadap berbagai isu yang mendukung dan menghambat pemberdayaan buruh perempuan industri rumah tangga, dan keempat, menyusun model pemberdayaan buruh perempuan sektor industri rumah tangga di diy. studi ini menggunakan pendekatan partisipatif dengan subyek utama yaitu buruh yang bekerja di sektor industri rumah tangga. fokus kajian pada sentra-sentra industry kerajinan yang tersebar di diy. hasil studi ini ada beberapa hal, yaitu: pertama, pendalaman terhadap beberapa sentra industri yang ada di diy memiliki dinamika dan karakteristik yang berbeda-beda, kedua, pemberdayaan buruh perempuan industri kecil meliputi dimensi sosial, pendidikan dan ekonomi, ketiga, strategi pemberdayaan buruh perempuan hendaknya mempertimbangkan karakteristik seperti identitas, umur dan pendidikan dan lamanya buruh bekerja di sentra-sentra yang ada dalam lokasi kajian ini, dan keempat untuk mewujudkan pemberdayaan buruh perempuan diperlukan dukungan keterpaduan baik instansi daerah maupun lembaga-lembaga masyarakat (civil society), swasta dan lembaga pendidikan. kata kunci: pemberdayaan masyarakat; pendekatan partisipatif; buruh perempuan; industri rumah tangga klasifikasi jel: j20, j23, d1 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 1, april 2013: 9-17 10 pendahuluan seiring dengan semakin meningkatnya beban ekonomi yang dicirikan oleh meningkatnya biaya hidup, pendidikan anak, dan kesehatan memaksa banyak perempuan harus menanggung beban ganda, yaitu di sektor domestik sebagai ibu rumah tangga yang harus mengurus berbagai keperluan keluarga dan di sektor publik sebagai buruh perempuan. menurut laporan departemen tenaga kerja (2004), kontribusi peran perempuan ditunjukkan dengan semakin meningkatnya angkatan kerja perempuan, yaitu mencapai 46,23 persen. perempuan umumnya bergerak di sektor primer (46,01 persen) dan tersier (39,62 persen), namun status pekerjaan terbanyak sebagai buruh sektor informal (54,82 persen), termasuk menjadi pedagang kecil-kecilan, pekerja rumah tangga, bahkan cukup banyak sebagai pekerja keluarga tanpa upah. kondisi buruh perempuan di sektor formal tidak selalu lebih baik dari perempuan yang berkecimpung di sektor informal (jurnal perempuan, edisi 56, thn 2007). menurut sakernas (februari, 2007) status pekerjaan, perempuan yang bekerja di sektor formal sebanyak 9,1 juta (sebagai pengusaha hanya 5,5 persen dan sisanya 94,5 persen sebagai pekerja/ buruh), sedang yang lainnya sebanyak 26,3 juta (74,28 persen) bekerja di sektor informal (berusaha sendiri, berusaha sendiri dibantu pekerja tidak tetap, pekerja bebas di pertanian dan nonpertanian, serta pekerja tak dibayar). meskipun sejumlah hak-hak perempuan itu telah dilindungi melalui undang-undang (uu) nomor 13 tahun 2003 tentang ketenagakerjaan, di indonesia, sebagian besar perusahaan hampir tidak memperhatikan masalahmasalah yang spesifik yang dialami pekerja perempuan. pekerja perempuan memang jumlahnya cukup besar, namun bukan berarti mempunyai jaminan akan terperhatikannya hak-haknya (laporan cedaw, 2007). permasalahan yang dihadapi oleh pekerja perempuan terkait dengan hak kesehatan reproduksinya, yakni; (1) pekerja perempuan di sektor industri dan jasa dengan status pegawai tetap, menurut uu no.13/2003 tentang ketenagakerjaan, memiliki hak cuti melahirkan, namun dalam kenyataannya selama cuti tidak dibayar. alasannya pekerja perempuan tersebut tidak dapat memperlihatkan akte nikahnya, karena pemilik perusahaan mengaitkan dengan uu no. 01 tahun 1974 tentang perkawinan di mana perkawinan yang syah adalah perkawinan yang sudah didaftarkan. namun hal ini tidak berlaku bagi pasangan yang menikah di wilayah pedesaan, karena hanya 30 persen dari pasangan yang resmi menikah di indonesia memiliki akte/surat nikah. (2) pekerja perempuan di perusahaan/pabrik tidak dapat mengambil cuti haid jika tidak dapat membuktikannya dengan surat dokter. semangat uu no. 13 tahun 2003 tentang ketenagakerjaan yaitu mengatur hubungan industrial, khususnya di sektor formal. pertanyaannya kemudian, bagaimana perlindungan buruh perempuan di sektor informal? pekerja informal sebagaimana uu ketenagakerjaan adalah mereka yang “bekerja di luar hubungan kerja”, yang berarti tidak ada perjanjian kerja yang mengatur unsur pekerjaan, upah, dan perintah. perlu menjadi catatan bahwa struktur perekonomian diy ditopang oleh jasa; perhotelan, restoran, dan sebagainya termasuk sektor pertanian. hal ini bisa dipahami bahwa diy merupakan salah satu destinasi wisata penting di indonesia setelah bali dan jakarta. sebagai destinasi wisata, pertumbuhan ekonomi disokong salah satunya sektor informal. oleh karena itu pemberdayaan buruh perempuan di sektor informal perlu dilakukan dalam rangka untuk menemukan upaya agar buruh perempuan di sektor tersebut dapat terangkat kehidupan sosial-ekonominya. dalam jangka panjang kesejahteraannya bisa meningkat. konsep pemberdayaan masyarakat merupakan upaya untuk meningkatkan harkat dan martabat lapisan masyarakat yang dalam kondisi sekarang tidak mampu untuk melepaskan diri dari perangkap kemiskinan dan keterbelakangan. dengan kata lain, pemberdayaan adalah memampukan dan memandirikan masyarakat. pemberdayaan bukan hanya meliputi penguatan individu anggota masyarakat, tetapi juga pranata-pranatanya. menanamkan nilainilai budaya modern, seperti kerja keras, hemat, model pemberdayaan buruh perempuan ... (ahmad ma’ruf, masmulyadi) 11 keterbukaan, dan kebertanggungjawaban adalah bagian pokok dari upaya pemberdayaan ini. demikian pula pembaharuan institusi-institusi sosial dan pengintegrasiannya ke dalam kegiatan pembangunan serta peranan masyarakat di dalamnya. yang terpenting di sini adalah peningkatan partisipasi rakyat dalam proses pengambilan keputusan yang menyangkut diri dan masyarakatnya (bahan kuliah pps sp itb). menyadari buruh perempuan di sektor industri rumah tangga yang demikian banyak sementara perlindungan dan perhatian terhadap mereka tidak maksimal maka diperlukan upaya-upaya untuk memperkuat kapasitas mereka. karena itu studi ini penting dalam rangka memahami karakteristik buruh perempuan di industri rumah tangga dan merumuskan bagaimana model pemberdayaan yang bisa diintervensi oleh pemerintah dan stakeholders lainnya. secara umum tujuan studi ini yaitu: (1) menganalisis dan mendeskripsikan karakteristik buruh perempuan yang bekerja di industri rumah tangga terpilih, (2) mengetahui dan menganalisis kekuatan, kelemahan, peluang, dan kendala dalam pemberdayaan buruh perempuan, (3) melakukan eksplorasi terhadap berbagai isu yang mendukung dan menghambat pemberdayaan buruh perempuan industri rumah tangga, dan (4) menyusun model pemberdayaan buruh perempuan sektor industri rumah tangga pada sentra terpilih. metode penelitian studi ini termasuk jenis policy research yang terdiri dari rangkaian kegiatan penelitian, sosialisasi dan evaluasi kebijakan yang telah ada selama ini, serta merumuskan kebijakan dan model pemberdayaan buruh perempuan informal di diy yang efektif dalam menjawab realitas dan kebutuhan yang berkembang di masa yang akan datang. menurut muhadjir (2003) policy research muncul dari adanya keterbatasan untuk memenuhi kebutuhan manusia. keterbatasan dana, lebih luas lagi menjadi keterbatasan resource. core policy research atau penelitian kebijakan adalah mencari pilihan optimal agar scarcity of resources dapat dioptimalkan sebaik mungkin. subjek dan partisipan studi ini yaitu buruh perempuan yang bekerja di sektor industri rumah tangga. buruh perempuan dihubungi melalui kontak, baik itu di tempat tinggal atau pun di tempat kerja mereka oleh tim peneliti yang terlibat dalam studi ini. lokasi studi ini dilakukan di sentra-sentra industri yang tersebar dibeberapa wilayah di diy, lihat tabel 1. sentra kerajinan dipilih sebagai subyek dalam studi ini dengan pertimbangan bahwa, kerajinan merupakan urutan kedua terbesar (jumlahnya mencapai 21.593) setelah pengolahan pangan.   tabel 1. subjek penelitian no kabupaten/ kota lokasi jumlah 1 yogyakarta sentra batik 5 2 gunungkidul sentra topeng kayu 10 3 kulon progo sentra serat alam 10 4 bantul sentra batik kayu, krebet 10 5 sleman sentra bambu 9 jumlah 44 data yang digunakan dalam kegiatan ini meliputi data sekunder dan primer. data sekunder diperoleh dari laporan/publikasi pihak-pihak terkait terutama pemerintah provinsi daerah istimewa yogyakarta, bps, dan lembaga lain yang memiliki data dan informasi yang relevan. adapun data-data primer dilakukan dengan menggabungkan beberapa metode, antara lain: (1) teknik observasi atau pengamatan, yaitu mengamati langsung ke lokasi pedesaan dan menelusuri sentra-sentra kerajinan untuk mengetahui potensi dan kegiatan yang dilakukan oleh para buruh perempuan. pengamatan ini menurut faisal (2003: 65-66) dapat direkam kejadian-kejadian, peristiwa, keadaan yang mempola dari hari ke hari di tengah masyarakat. aktivitas ini tidak hanya menangkap kenyataan-kenyataan yang terlihat, tetapi juga terhadap yang terdengar; (2) wawancara kepada pihak terkait yaitu pihak pengusaha, buruh perempuan, dan lembaga jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 1, april 2013: 9-17 12 lainnya yang terkait. wawancara ini untuk mendapatkan informasi mengenai relasi buruh majikan, pengupahan, dan life history dengan harapan dapat mengamati perubahan-perubahan yang terjadi di sentra; dan (3) diskusi kelompok terfokus (fgd), yaitu diskusi kelompok terfokus yang melibatkan pihak-pihak yang berkepentingan dengan buruh perempuan (stakeholders), pada fgd ditujukan untuk memperoleh informasi mengenai harapan masa depan, solusi bersama untuk mengatasi masalah buruh perempuan. menurut bungin (2003) fgd adalah sebuah teknik pengumpulan data yang umumnya dilakukan pada penelitian kualitatif dengan tujuan menemukan makna sebuah tema menurut pemahaman sebuah kelompok. teknik ini digunakan untuk mengungkap pemaknaan dari suatu kelompok berdasarkan hasil diskusi yang terpusat pada suatu permasalahan tertentu. fgd juga dimaksudkan untuk menghindari pemaknaan yang salah dari seorang peneliti terhadap fokus masalah yang sedang diteliti. lebih jauh teknik ini digunakan untuk menarik kesimpulan terhadap makna-makna intersubyektif yang sulit dimaknakan sendiri oleh peneliti karena dihalangi oleh ketidaktahuan peneliti terhadap makna sesungguhnya dari orang-orang di sekitar sebuah fenomena yang sedang diteliti serta sejauh mungkin peneliti menghindari diri dari dorongan subyektivitas peneliti tersebut. dalam kajian ini, metode analisis yang digunakan mencakup: (1) analisis deskriptif (descriptive analysis), analisis deskriptif ini dimaksudkan untuk menyajikan atau mendeskripsikan hasil temuan lapangan. analisis deskriptif kualitatif khususnya ditujukan untuk mendapatkan informasi tentang berbagai kondisi lapangan yang bersifat tanggapan dan pandangan terhadap isu utama dalam kajian ini; yaitu mengenai perempuan, perburuhan, upah dan relasi industrial di wilayah riset. hasil analisis berupa perbandingan kondisi rill di lapangan yang diperoleh dari pendapatpendapat berbagai unsur yang terlibat langsung dalam perburuhan dengan kondisi ideal yang diperoleh dari desk studi (pustaka); (2) analisis swot, analisis ini digunakan untuk merumuskan secara kualitatif dan holistik baik lingkungan internal maupun eksternal dari entitas yang sedang diamati. menurut rangkuti (1998: 18-19) proses pengambilan keputusan strategis selalu berkaitan dengan pengembangan misi, strategi dan kebijakan lembaga. dengan demikian perencanaan strategis harus menganalisis faktor-faktor strategis yang mencakup lingkup internal, analisis akan menjelaskan secara rinci aspek-aspek yang menjadi kelemahan (weakness) dan kekuatan (strength). sementara itu, dalam lingkup eksternal analisis ini akan menjelaskan secara rinci mengenai aspek peluang (opportunity) dan tantangan (threat) yang akan dihadapi dalam pemberdayaan buruh perempuan informal. hasil dan pembahasan pada sub bagian ini akan diuraikan mengenai bagaimana karakteristik dan problematika buruh perempuan di diy. karakteristik tersebut menggambarkan secara singkat tentang buruh perempuan mengenai umur, struktur keluarga, status perkawinan dan tingkat pendidikannya. sedangkan problematika buruh berkaitan dengan permasalahan dan tantangan yang dihadapi oleh para buruh perempuan. analisis swot salah satu tahapan penting dalam pemberdayaan buruh perempuan yaitu bagaimana menggali atau mengenali permasalahan yang dihadapi oleh buruh perempuan dan berusaha menemukan faktor kunci keberhasilan. setiap manusia memiliki potensi dan kemungkinan keberhasilannya sendiri-sendiri dengan berbagai karakteristiknya masing-masing. demikian juga dengan permasalahan yang dihadapi oleh buruh perempuan di sektor informal. faktor ruang dan waktu serta kebudayaan juga menjadi aspek penting dalam menjelaskan bagaimana intervensi pemberdayaan yang mungkin dilakukan. pada bagian ini analisis akan difokuskan pada bagaimana menggali faktor-faktor kekuatan dan kelemahan serta peluang dan tantangan dalam pengembangan model pemberdayaan buruh perempuan di diy. analisis ini disusun model pemberdayaan buruh perempuan ... (ahmad ma’ruf, masmulyadi) 13 berdasarkan karateristik dan permasalahan obyektif yang dihadapi oleh para buruh perempuan. dengan melihat kekuatan dan kelemahan yang dimiliki oleh buruh perempuan, maka strategi pengembangannya adalah memanfaatkan peluang dan menyelesaikan tantangan yang dihadapi dunia usaha. peluang yang tersedia akan berdampak positif bagi pemberdayaan buruh perempuan, sementara tantangan yang dihadapi harus diupayakan penyelesaiannya secara sistematis, efektif, efisien, dan optimal. nampaknya kerjasama dan koordinasi antarpihak berdasar prioritas masalah menjadi sangat penting untuk menyelesaikan permasalahan dan tantangan dalam pemberdayaan buruh perempuan. tabel 2. analisis swot buruh perempuan kekuatan (strengths) kelemahan (weakneses) 1. dasar hukum (uu ketenagakerjaan) yang jelas. 2. struktur organisasi dan tata kerja bppm/dinas kabupaten/provinsi. 3. jaringan ornop/lsm/ormas diy. 4. adanya kebijakan politik ketenagakerjaan baik di provinsi maupun nasional. 5. kekayaan sentra industri kerajinan dengan berbagai produk. 6. dukungan perguruan tinggi di diy. 7. motivasi kerja para buruh. 8. jumlah buruh yang banyak. 9. pengetahuan dan keterampilan yang memadai. 10. tumbuhnya sentra-sentra industri. 1. belum adanya jaminan sosial dan kesehatan buruh. 2. belum terorganisirnya buruh perempuan. 3. rendahnya kesadaran (partisipasi) berserikat dan berlembaga buruh perempuan. 4. belum terintegrasinya pendekatan gender mainstreaming dalam hubungan industrial. 5. sistem upah yang belum adil dan bias gender. 6. lemahnya posisi tawar (bargaining position) terhadap majikan. 7. kecilnya dukungan anggaran program kegiatan. 8. lemahnya koordinasi lintas sektoral/tingkatan birokrasi. 9. keterampilan. peluang (opportunities) strategi s – o strategi w – o 1. adanya kebijakan politik (ketenagakerjaan) nasional dan lokal. 2. program-program pemberdayaan/prorakyat ditingkat nasional dan lokal. 3. tumbuhnya kesadaran buruh ditingkat nasional terhadap isu-isu relasi industrial. 4. perkembangan perdagangan ekspor produk kerajinan. 5. program pengembangan desa wisata oleh provinsi/kabupaten/ kota diy. 1. dasar hukum yang jelas, dukungan apbd serta kebijakan politik pemerintah provinsi diy untuk memberdayakan buruh perempuan merupakan modal utama bagi bppm diy/dinas kabupaten untuk membangun kesadaran buruh terhadap hubungan industrial. 2. jaringan ornop/lsm/ormas, kekayaan sentra industri, dukungan perguruan tinggi untuk menangkap peluang program-program pemerintah yang prorakyat dalam bentuk kerja-kerja pendampingan, dan dukungan sumberdaya. 3. peningkatan kapasitas buruh melalui buruh melalui latihan keterampilan diversifikasi kreasi produk kerajinan untuk memanfaatkan peluang 1. belum adanya jaminan sosial dan kesehatan, belum terintegrasinya pendekatan gender mainstreaming dalam hubungan industrial untuk memaksimalkan dukungan kebijakan politik terhadap pemberdayaan buruh perempuan. 2. optimalisasi komunikasi, informasi dan edukasi tentang kesadaran gender, pentingnya berserikat/organisasi bagi buruh perempuan. 3. memperkuat koordinasi baik diantara pemerintah provinsi dengan kabupaten, juga termasuk lembaga-lembaga non pemerintah. 4. pembinaan dan optimalisasi pihak swasta yang sudah ada. 5. pembentukan dan optimalisasi jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 1, april 2013: 9-17 14 perkembangan perdagangan. 4. optimalisasi kemitraan perguruan tinggi, ornop/ lsm/ ormas dalam pendampingan sentra-sentra kerajinan dan buruhnya. 5. optimalisasi kelembagaan sosial, pendidikan, ekonomi yang sudah eksis. kelembagaan buruh perempuan melalui pendampingan di luar jam kerja. ancaman (threats) strategi s – t strategi w – t 1. pemutusan hubungan kerja. 2. tenaga kerja luar daerah. 3. pasar bebas (liberalisasi) pasar tenaga kerja. 4. kebijakan industri (majikan) yang tidak mendukung. 5. perbedaan kepentingan antara buruh dan majikan. 1. optimalisasi kemunikasi dan informasi bagi buruh perempuan terkait hak-hak dasarnya (jaminan sosial, kesehatan reproduksi). 2. peningkatan daya saing dan daya tahan menghadapi dinamika liberasasi perburuhan. 3. optimalisasi peran mediasi baik oleh pemerintah provinsi/ kabupaten / ornop dalam membangun hubungan buruh dengan majikan. 1. meningkatkan kesadaran gender buruh perempuan di lingkungan (sentra) kerja. 2. mengembangkan kemitraan dengan berbagai kelembagaan buruh dalam meningkatan keberdayaan buruh perempuan. 3. peningkatan/pemberdayaan kelembagaan buruh melalui pendampingan. sumber: data primer diolah, (2012) model pemberdayaan buruh perempuan kegiatan pemberdayaan buruh perempuan di sektor industri rumah tangga diharapkan mampu mendorong peningkatan kualitas kehidupan buruh perempuan yang bekerja pada sektor informal, perluasan jaminan sosial buruh, standarisasi upah minimum dalam rangka mencapai hasil akhir yaitu meningkatnya kesejahteraan rakyat. strategi pemberdayaan buruh perempuan sektor industri rumah tangga di diy mengacu kepada agenda pokok, yaitu: (a) mendorong partisipasi dan pelibatan peran serta masyarakat (ornop/ormas) dalam pemberdayaan buruh perempuan di sektor industri rumah tangga. (b) mendorong sektor swasta dan perguruan tinggi (partnership) dalam kegiatan-kegiatan pemberdayaan buruh perempuan di sektor industri rumah tangga. (c) pengembangan alternatif usaha bagi buruh yang memiliki keinginan untuk mandiri atau alir profesi melalui penguatan modal dan pendampingan. (d) jaminan sosial dan perlindungan hukum bagi buruh perempuan di sektor industri rumah tangga. agar program-program yang akan dilakukan oleh birokrasi berjalan efektif dan muncul rasa “ownership” terhadap program, maka sebaiknya sejak awal para pemangku kepentingan dilibatkan dalam setiap tahapan program dan kegiatan. pemangku kepentingan dalam pemberdayaan buruh perempuan tidak hanya state, melaingkan juga sektor swasta dan masyarakat sipil (civil society). tabel 3 menggambarkan bagaimana keterkaitan peran antar pihak dalam pemberdayaan buruh perempuan. 1) strategi dan kebijakan pemberdayaan strategi dan kebijakan pemberdayaan buruh perempuan di sektor informal haruslah mampu memperkuat kelembagaan buruh perempuan, mengembangkan partnership dengan berbagai institusi dan mengarah pada perlindungan hak-hak buruh perempuan di sektor industri rumah tangga. karena itu strategi dan kebijakan pemberdayaan perempuan informal dapat dilakukan melalui intensifikasi dan ekstensifikasi program. langkah ini memungkinkan untuk memberdayakan para buruh model pemberdayaan buruh perempuan ... (ahmad ma’ruf, masmulyadi) 15 perempuan yang bekerja di sektor informal di diy. intensifikasi program yaitu pengembangan program pada peningkatan kualitas dan kuantitas pemberdayaan buruh perempuan yang sudah ada, melalui kemitraan dengan sektor swasta, perguruan tinggi, jaminan sosial, dan pendampingan. sementara ekstensifikasi program pengembangan merupakan upaya mencari terobosan baru dalam pemberdayaan buruh perempuan di sektor informal sesuai dengan karakteristik yang dimiliki masing-masing kawasan/sentra. strategi dan kebijakan pemberdayaan masyarakat yang sejalan dengan mandat dari uu no. 13 tahun 2003, tentang ketenagakerjaan dan peraturan pemerintah lainnya sekaligus memperhatikan agenda-agenda pembangunan yang memberikan porsi dan perhatian terhadap keberdayaan perempuan, program pengembangan tersebut mencakup: (a) pengawasan dinas/dewan terkait untuk memastikan berbagai peraturan (ketenagakerjaan) dijalankan oleh para pihak. (b) pengembangan sistem pengupahan yang adil (tidak diskriminatif) antara laki-laki dan perempuan di tempat kerja. (c) pengembangan organisasi atau asosiasi (kelembagaan) buruh sebagai wadah pembinaan dan pengembangan potensi buruh perempuan. (d) pengembangan kapasitas dan jejaring kelembagaan antar stakeholders. (e) afirmasi kebijakan anggaran terhadap pembinaan dan pengembangan organisasi buruh. (f) optimalisasi peran sektor swasta dan perguruan tinggi dalam pendampingan buruh perempuan di sektor informal. (g) pengembangan task force/kelembagaan pemberdayaan buruh perempuan yang khusus men-drive isu-isu pemberdayaan buruh perempuan di bppm, diy, dan kabupaten. 2) program pengembangan buruh migran program pengembangan kegiatan pemberdayaan buruh perempuan meliputi beberapa aspek, antara lain: (a) sosial. jumlah buruh yang demikian banyak dan tersebar di berbagai sentra-sentra kerajinan merupakan potensi yang luar biasa. hanya saja belum terwadahi dalam kelembagaan, yang sesungguhnya dalam undang-udang ketenagakerjaan, asosiasi atau serikat buruh diafirmasi. persoalan utama yang menjadi kendala yaitu jam kerja yang sangat padat yang tidak memungkinkan bagi buruh untuk secara lebih tabel 3. pembagian peran stakeholder dalam pemberdayaan buruh perempuan no para pihak peran serta/partisipasi 1. pemerintah ‐ koordinasi dengan berbagai lembaga/dinas terkait. ‐ kebijakan politik untuk memberikan perlindungan sosial dan hukum bagi buruh perempuan yang bekerja di industry rumah tangga. ‐ optimalisasi kie – komunikasi, informasi & edukasi – terkait jaminan sosial tenaga kerja (jamsostek). ‐ pengawasan dinas/dewan terkait untuk memastikan berbagai peraturan (ke-tenagakerjaan) dijalankan oleh para pihak. ‐ alokasi budget melalui apbd untuk pembinaan dan pendampingan buruh. ‐ mediasi konflik-konflik terkait hubungan majikan-buruh. 2. masyarakat sipil (civil society) ‐ pendampingan (di luar jam kerja) dan pengorganisasian buruh perempuan. ‐ peningkatan kapasitas buruh perempuan melalui berbagai pelatihan/workshop. ‐ peningkatan kesadaran hak-hak buruh melalui kie. 3. sektor swasta dan perguruan tinggi ‐ dukungan csr dalam pengembangan program-program pemberdayaan buruh perempuan seperti permodalan dan dukungan sumberdaya (peralatan) lainnya. ‐ pelibatan perguruan tinggi dalam berbagai pendampingan melalui kegiatan pengabdian masyarakat, dan penelitian. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 1, april 2013: 9-17 16 longgar melibatkan diri dalam organisasi buruh. banyaknya lembaga-lembaga sosial dan ornop (baca: civil society) di diy juga merupakan potensi dalam upaya mendorong pemberdayaan buruh perempuan melalui pelibatan berbagai lembaga tersebut dalam kegiatankegiatan pendampingan sosial-budaya. buruh perempuan yang bekerja di sektor informal seringkali terlupakan dengan jaminan sosial dan kesehatan yang memungkinkan para buruh bisa hidup sejahtera. oleh karena ini perlu adanya dorongan kepada berbagai perusahaan/pengrajin untuk memperhatikan aspek-aspek kesejahteraan sosial buruh perempuan melalui perlindungan/jaminan sosial tenaga kerja. (b) pendidikan. pendidikan merupakan aspek penting dalam pemberdayaan buruh perempuan. bukan hanya pendidikan formal, tetapi melalui sejumlah pendidikan non-formal, yaitu pelatihan dalam meningkatkan kapasitas buruh sesuai dengan karakteristik industri tempatnya bekerja. pendidikan penyadaran hak-hak buruh yang dijamin oleh berbagai konvensi internasional dan hukum perburuhan secara nasional secara “kritis”, di samping kesadaran tentang kondisi sosial, budaya dan ekonomi yang bisa ditempuh lewat media massa, pelatihan, pendidikan hukum dan pendapat umum. 3) ekonomi  strategi program pemberdayaan buruh perempuan dalam aspek ekonomi meliputi beberapa hal, yaitu: (a) access to capital, artinya bagaimana para stakeholders memfasilitasi buruh yang memiliki kemampuan dan keinginan untuk mandiri/ mencari (alternatif nafkah yang lain) dengan sumber-sumber permodalan seperti perbankan, koperasi atau asuransi. (b) akses kepada keadilan; buruh perempuan seringkali memperoleh diskriminasi dan ketidakadilan dalam kehidupan sosial-ekonomi politiknya. dalam hubungannya dengan ketenagakerjaan, dukungan paralegal dan advokasi terhadap hak-hak yang meliputi cuti haid, cuti hamil, serta melahirkan. beberapa perlindungan lain yang tidak berhubungan dengan kondisi biologisnya misalnya bekerja pada malam hari, pengupahan yang sama (laki-laki dan perempuan), dan pekerjaan yang bisa membahayakan bagi buruh perempuan. simpulan hasil analisis yang dilakukan berdasarkan data sekunder dan data primer yang tersedia mengenai model pemberdayaan buruh perempuan dapat dirangkum beberapa catatan akhir yang perlu menjadi perhatian bagi pemangku kepentingan, yaitu: (1) pendalaman terhadap 5 sentra yang ada di diy yaitu krebet, bantul; tanggulangin, kulon progo; brajan, sleman; ketanggungan, yogyakarta; dan bobung, gunungkidul memiliki dinamika dan karakteristik yang berbeda-beda. (2) pemberdayaan buruh perempuan industri kecil meliputi dimensi sosial, pendidikan dan ekonomi. pada dimensi sosial dengan mendorong tumbuhnya kelembagaan/asosiasi sebagai wadah pembinaan dan pengorganisasian buruh. dimensi pendidikan berkaitan dengan peningkatan kapasitas buruh perempuan, termasuk yang memiliki keinginan untuk mengembangkan kemandirian atau bertransformasi kepekerjaan lain, dan pada dimensi ekonomi yaitu pemberian akses kepada permodalan dan keadilan (access to justice). (3) strategi pemberdayaan buruh perempuan hendaknya mempertimbangkan karakteristik seperti identitas, umur dan pendidikan dan lamanya buruh bekerja di sentra-sentra yang ada dalam lokasi kajian ini. (4) untuk mewujudkan pemberdayaan buruh perempuan diperlukan dukungan keterpaduan baik instansi daerah maupun lembaga-lembaga masyarakat (civil society), swasta dan lembaga pendidikan. saran. adapun saran yang bisa direkomendasikan dalam studi ini, yaitu: (1) peningkatan kesejahteraan buruh perempuan melalui pemberian jaminan sosial dan kesehatan (hak-hak reproduksi) haruslah menjadi perhatian dalam keseluruhan rangkaian program. (2) perlu adanya kesamaan persepsi, komitmen, dan kebijakan dalam pemberdayaan buruh perempuan di sektor informal akan mampu model pemberdayaan buruh perempuan ... (ahmad ma’ruf, masmulyadi) 17 memberikan ruang akomodasi bagi aspirasi, kreativitas, dan inovasi yang berkembang yang diharapkan akan dapat memperkuat keberdayaan buruh perempuan. daftar pustaka adi, isbandi rukminto. (2001). pemberdayaan, pengembangan masyarakat dan, intervensi komunitas. jakarta: lembaga penerbit fakultas ekonomi universitas indonesia. adimiharja, kusnaka dan hikmat, h. (2003). participatory research appraisal. bandung: penerbit humaniora. djohani, rianingsih (ed). (1996). berbuat bersama berperan setara, acuan penerapan participatory rural appraisal. kupang: driyamedia. dahniar dan lasimpo, danel. (2008). menebar dana menuai kemiskinan: ppk bank dunia di sulawesi tengah. jakarta: international ngo forum on indonesian development. dewanti, ratih dan chotim, erna ermawati. (2004). marginalisasi dan eksploitasi perempuan usaha mikro di perdesaan jawa. bandung: akatiga. faisal, sanapiah. (1995). format-format penelitian sosial: dasar-dasar dan aplikasi. jakarta: rajawali pers. fernandes, walter dan tandon, rajesh. (1993). riset partisipatoris riset pembebasan. jakarta: gramedia pustaka utama. hikmat, harry. (2001). strategi pemberdayaan masyarakat. bandung: humaniora utama press. hardyastuti, suhatmini dan hudayana, bambang. (1991). pekerja wanita pada industri rumah tangga sandang di provinsi diy. yogyakarta: pusat penelitian kependudukan ugm. kusumanto, dkk. (2006). belajar beradaptasi bersama-sama mengelola hutan di indonesia. bogor: centre for international forest research. legowo, joko dkk. (2011). kapitalisme perkayuan dan advokasi buruh di jepara. jepara: yayasan pamerdi luhur. mcintosh, p. (2010). action research and reflective practice. london: routledge. rangkuti, freddy. (1998). analisis swot teknik membedah kasus bisnis. jakarta: gramedia pustaka utama. sajogyo, dkk. (1997). gerakan nasional penanggulangan kemiskinan: kajian bersama pengembangan kebijakan. yogyakarta: bappenas – p3r yayasan agro ekonomika dan aditya media. sumodiningrat, gunawan. (2002). pemberdayaan sosial kajian ringkas tentang pembangunan manusia indonesia. jakarta: kompas. suharto, edi. (2005). membangun masyarakat memberdayakan rakyat. bandung: refika aditama. sukendar, ananto. (1999). profil sosial dan problematika pekerja rumah tangga di diy. yogyakarta: yayasan tjoet njak dien. susilastuti, dewi haryani, dan partini. (1990). sistem borongan wanita pekerja di pedesaan jawa. yogyakarta: pusat studi kependudukan ugm. verhagen, koenraad. (1996). pengembangan swadaya, pengalaman lsm di tiga negara. jakarta: puspaswara. microsoft word 02-kanetasya jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 1, april 2014, hlm.12-22 pengaruh desentralisasi fiskal terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi per kapita regional di indonesia kanetasya sabilla1, wihana kirana jaya2 1 direktorat perencanaan makro badan perencanaan pembangunan nasional jalan taman suropati no. 2, menteng, kota jakarta pusat, dki jakarta 10310, indonesia, phone: +62 21 3927511 2 fakultas ekonomi dan bisnis universitas gadjah mada jalan sosio humaniora no.01 bulaksumur, yogyakarta 55281, indonesia, phone: +62 274 548510 e-mail korespondensi: kanetasya@gmail.com naskah diterima: september 2013; disetujui: maret 2014 abstract: fiscal decentralization policy is enforced in indonesia nowadays to regulate the relationship between central and local government. a region can determine fiscal policy in their own region in order to local needs fulfillment to be more efficient because the local government is considered knows better about the local people condition and preferences in their own region so that people can be more prosperous. this research analyzes the effect of fiscal decentralization to regional economic growth per capita as an approach of people welfare in every province at indonesia during the period 2006-2010 by using panel data. furthermore, this research also analyzes the effect of other variables that can affect regional economic growth per capita, they are labor force and international trade. based on the result, we can conclude that fiscal decentralization affects positively to regional economic growth per capita so does labor force. but, international trade does not affect and even affects negatively to regional economic growth per capita. keywords: fiscal decentralization; economic growth; labor; panel data jel classification: o23, r12 abstrak: kebijakan desentralisasi fiskal saat ini sedang diberlakukan di indonesia untuk mengatur hubungan antara pemerintah pusat dan daerah. sebuah daerah dapat menentukan kebijakan fiskal di daerahnya sendiri agar pemenuhan kebutuhan masyarakat di daerah menjadi lebih efisien karena pemerintah daerah dianggap lebih tahu kondisi dan preferensi masyarakat di daerah masing-masing sehingga masyarakat menjadi lebih sejahtera. studi ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh desentralisasi fiskal terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi per kapita regional sebagai pendekatan kesejahteraan masyarakat di seluruh provinsi di indonesia selama periode 2006-2010 dengan menggunakan data panel. selain itu, studi ini juga menganalisis pengaruh variabel-variabel lain yang dapat mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi per kapita regional, yaitu: tenaga kerja dan perdagangan internasional. hasil studi memperlihatkan bahwa desentralisasi fiskal berpengaruh positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi per kapita regional, begitu juga dengan tenaga kerja. namun, perdagangan internasional tidak berpengaruh dan bahkan berpengaruh negatif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi per kapita regional. kata kunci: desentralisasi fiskal; pertumbuhan ekonomi ; tenaga kerja; data panel klasifikasi jel: o23, r12 pertumbuhan ekonomi per kapita ... (kanetasya sabilla, wihana kirana jaya) 13 pendahuluan hubungan antara pemerintah pusat dan daerah banyak dibahas melalui berbagai studi dewasa ini seperti dalam bidang ilmu politik, administrasi, geografi, dan ekonomi. hal ini antara lain berasal dari argumen bahwa pemerintah pusat dianggap lebih baik mendelegasikan beberapa tugas dan wewenang kepada pemerintah daerah agar pemerintah dapat mengambil kebijakan yang lebih sesuai dengan kebutuhan masyarakat (oates, 1999). sistem ini dikenal dengan istilah otonomi daerah. kata otonomi sebenarnya berasal dari bahasa yunani, yaitu dari kata auto yang berarti sendiri dan nomos yang berarti aturan atau undangundang. dengan demikian otonomi dapat diartikan sebagai mengatur atau mengurus urusan rumah tangganya sendiri (sumodiningrat, 2004). dalam ilmu ekonomi, desentralisasi fiskal menjadi salah satu isu yang diteliti untuk mengetahui efektivitas dan efisiensi hubungan antara pemerintah pusat dan daerah dalam kerangka otonomi daerah. pelaksanaan desentralisasi fiskal sendiri sudah tersebar ke seluruh belahan dunia sejak beberapa tahun terakhir ini termasuk di negara-negara berkembang (ebel and yilmaz, 2002). bahkan, negara-negara bekas komunis yang dulu dikenal dengan sistem pemerintahan yang terpusat seperti di negaranegara eropa timur bekas jajahan uni soviet juga melakukan kebijakan ini. sodiq dan nuryadin (2005) menyatakan desentralisasi telah mendorong terjadinya pembagian kewenangan (authority sharing) yang ditandai dengan semakin meningkatnya peran daerah dan inisiatif lokal (authonomy). meningkatnya tuntutan desentralisasi dan otonomi daerah pada gilirannya akan mengakibatkan perubahan peran, fungsi, kelembagaan, dan sumberdaya manusia di berbagai tingkat pemerintah. bird dan vaillancourt (1998) mendefinisikan desentralisasi dengan membaginya ke dalam tiga istilah yang berbeda: dekonsentrasi, delegasi, dan devolusi. dekonsentrasi adalah penyebaran tanggung jawab dari pemerintah pusat ke kantor cabang atau unit administratif lokal. delegasi merupakan sebuah situasi di mana pemerintah daerah bertindak sebagai agen pemerintah pusat untuk melaksanakan fungsi-fungsi tertentu. sedangkan devolusi merupakan sebuah situasi di mana pemerintah daerah tidak hanya mengimplementasikan arahan dari pemerintah pusat, tapi juga terdapat otoritas untuk memutuskan kebijakan. tanzi (1996) menyatakan desentralisasi fiskal sendiri mengacu pada pemberian penugasan dan otoritas yang sah kepada pemerintah daerah untuk memungut (beberapa jenis) pajak tertentu, termasuk juga kewenangan untuk menetapkan basis dan tarif pajak. pemerintah daerah juga diberi kewenangan yang sah tentang fungsi-fungsi pengeluaran yang wajib dilaksanakan oleh daerah. desentralisasi fiskal memiliki empat pilar (undp, 2005), yaitu: tanggung jawab pengeluaran, penugasan pendapatan, transfer antarpemerintah, dan pinjaman daerah. pilar pertama, tanggung jawab pengeluaran, menjelaskan fungsi-fungsi manakah yang harus ditugaskan kepada tingkatan yang berbeda dalam keseluruhan sistem pemerintahan di sebuah negara. tanggung jawab pengeluaran sangat bergantung pada kondisi daerah dan tidak ada penugasan yang dianggap paling baik secara umum. pilar kedua, penugasan pendapatan, menentukan sumber-sumber pendapatan mana yang ditugaskan untuk pemerintah daerah. penugasan pendapatan bergantung pada tanggung jawab pengeluaran karena penganggaran seharusnya menyesuaikan dengan program yang telah ditetapkan. pilar ketiga, transfer antarpemerintah, diperlukan oleh sebuah daerah jika penugasan pendapatan tidak menjamin kecukupan pendapatan. pilar keempat, pinjaman daerah, diperlukan jika tidak terjadi keseimbangan antara pengeluaran dan pendapatan daerah yang sudah memasukkan transfer antarpemerintah. pinjaman daerah sebaiknya dilakukan untuk program pembangunan jangka panjang yang tidak rutin dikeluarkan. desentralisasi fiskal di negara berkembang beberapa dilatarbelakangi karena pemerintah berusaha memperbaiki efisiensi ekonomi, mencapai efisiensi biaya, memperbaiki akuntabilitas, atau meningkatkan mobilisasi sumber daya (bird dan vaillancourt, 1998). litvack, et.al. (1998) dalam matsui (2003) menyatakan empat manfaat lainnya dari mengaplikasikan jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 1, april 2014: 12-22 14 desentralisasi fiskal di sebuah negara. pertama, pencapaian efisiensi alokatif dalam menghadapi perbedaan preferensi lokal terhadap barang publik. kedua, perbaikan daya saing pemerintah. ketiga, pencapaian tata kelola yang baik. terakhir, perbaikan legitimasi dan sustainability daerah-daerah yang heterogen. tabel 1. undang-undang tentang pemerintahan daerah dan perimbangan keuangan daerah di indonesia tahun uu no. tentang 1945 1  peraturan mengenai kedudukan komite nasional daerah 1948 22  penetapan aturan-aturan pokok mengenai pemerintahan sendiri di daerah-daerah yang berhak mengatur dan mengurus rumah tangganya sendiri 1956 32  perimbangan keuangan antara negara dengan daerah-daerah 1957 1  pokok-pokok pemerintahan daerah 1974 5  pokok-pokok pemerintahan di daerah 1979 5  pemerintahan daerah 1999 22  pemerintahan daerah 1999 25  perimbangan keuangan antara pemerintah pusat dan daerah 2004 32  pemerintahan daerah 2004 33  perimbangan keuangan antara pemerintah pusat dan pemerintahan daerah sumber: undang-undang republik indonesia di indonesia, desentralisasi fiskal juga telah diberlakukan melalui undang-undang pemerintahan daerah terbaru, yakni undangundang nomor 32 dan 33 tahun 2004. sebagai negara dengan bentuk geografis berupa kepulauan, indonesia membutuhkan peraturan yang tepat dalam hal hubungan antara pemerintah pusat dan daerah. beberapa peraturan tentang pemerintah daerah pun dibuat. pembuatan uu ini tidak lepas dari konstitusi dasar indonesia, yakni undang-undang dasar 1945 pasal 18 yang berisi dasar peraturan tentang pemerintahan daerah. bunyi pasal tersebut yakni “pembagian daerah atas daerah besar dan kecil, dengan bentuk susunan pemerintahannya ditetapkan dengan undang-undang dengan memandang dan mengingat dasar permusyawaratan dalam sidang pemerintahan negara dan hak-hak asal-usul dalam daerah yang bersifat istimewa.” tabel 1 menunjukkan beberapa undang-undang tentang pemerintahan daerah dan perimbangan keuangan antara pemerintah pusat dan daerah. dalam uu no. 25 tahun 1999, tercantum bahwa indonesia menerapkan desentralisasi dalam tiga variasi, yaitu desentralisasi, dekonsentrasi, dan tugas pembantuan. desentralisasi adalah penyerahan wewenang pemerintahan oleh pemerintah kepada daerah otonom dalam kerangka negara kesatuan republik indonesia (pasal 1 ayat e). dekonsentrasi adalah pelimpahan wewenang dari pemerintah kepada gubernur sebagai wakil pemerintah dan atau perangkat pusat di daerah (pasal 1 ayat f). sedangkan tugas pembantuan adalah penugasan dari pemerintah kepada daerah dan desa dan dari daerah ke desa untuk melaksanakan tugas tertentu yang disertai pembiayaan, sarana, dan prasarana serta sumber daya manusia dengan kewajiban melaporkan pelaksanaannya dan mempertanggunggjawabkannya kepada yang menugaskan (pasal 1 ayat g). tabel 2 anggaran yang dialokasikan untuk belanja daerah setiap tahunnya meningkat jika dilihat dari nominalnya. namun jika dilihat melalui persentase terhadap total belanja negara, total belanja daerah yang dikeluarkan oleh negara tidak selalu meningkat setiap tahunnya dan persentasenya tidak jauh berbeda. tabel 2. total belanja daerah dan persentasenya terhadap total belanja negara dalam apbn 2001-2011 tahun apbn total belanja daerah (dalam trilyun rupiah) persentase terhadap total belanja negara 2001 81,68 26% 2002 97,97 28% 2003 116,88 31% 2004 119,04 32% 2005 131,55 33% 2006 220,27 34% 2007 258,79 34% 2008 281,23 33% 2009 320,69 31% 2010 322,42 31% 2011 392,98 32% sumber: badan kebijakan fiskal republik indonesia (diolah) pertumbuhan ekonomi per kapita ... (kanetasya sabilla, wihana kirana jaya) 15 dengan adanya desentralisasi fiskal, pemerintah pusat sejak tahun 2001 minimal mengalokasikan 26 persen dari total belanja negara di dalam anggaran pendapatan dan belanja negara (apbn) untuk pembelanjaan di daerah. setelah adanya uu no. 33 tahun 2004, pemerintah pusat minimal harus mengalokasikan 31 persen dari total anggarannnya untuk belanja daerah. selama sepuluh tahun terakhir ini, persentase total belanja daerah terhadap total belanja negara yang tertinggi terjadi pada tahun 2006 dan 2007 sebesar 34 persen. walaupun sudah banyak negara yang menerapkan sistem desentralisasi fiskal, pengaruh desentralisasi fiskal terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi masih diperdebatkan. seperti yang telah diterangkan di atas, desentralisasi fiskal, atau devolusi kewenangan fiskal dari pemerintah pusat kepada pemerintah daerah dilihat sebagai bagian dari reformasi untuk memperbaiki efisiensi sektor publik, sehingga kebijakan ini dapat dilakukan untuk meningkatkan kompetisi antarpemerintah daerah dalam penyediaan barang dan jasa publik dan untuk mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi (bird dan wallich, 1993; oates, 1993). berdasarkan pengamatan pada beberapa studi tentang hubungan antara desentralisasi fiskal dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi di berbagai negara, kesimpulan studi tidak sama. sebagai contoh, zhang dan zou (1998) melakukan analisis data panel untuk menguji pengaruh dan arah hubungan antara desentralisasi fiskal dan pertumbuhan ekonomi di china dengan kesimpulan akhir arah hubungan yang negatif. sementara faridi (2011) meneliti hubungan ini di pakistan juga dengan menggunakan data panel dan menemukan pengaruh dan arah hubungan yang positif. perbedaan hasil ini, menurut faridi (2011) disebabkan oleh perbedaan ukuran desentralisasi fiskal di beberapa studi. pengukuran yang tidak akurat dapat menyebabkan perbedaan pengaruh antara desentralisasi fiskal dan pertumbuhan ekonomi (ebel dan yilmaz, 2002). lan dan sajid (2011) menyatakan bahwa desentralisasi fiskal yang diukur melalui sisi pengeluaran berpengaruh negatif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di 61 provinsi di vietnam. sementara hasil sebaliknya terjadi ketika desentralisasi diukur melalui sisi pendapatan. hal ini ditengarai terjadi karena pemerintah pusat memberikan otonomi lebih besar pada sisi pendapatan dibandingkan pada sisi pengeluaran. shahdani, dkk (2012) menyatakan bahwa desentralisasi berpengaruh positif terhadap distribusi pendapatan dan secara tidak langsung berpengaruh terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di 30 provinsi di iran. menurut oates (1999), tidak ada teori formal yang menjelaskan hubungan desentralisasi fiskal dan pertumbuhan ekonomi sebagai ukuran dari kesejahteraan masyarakat merujuk pada perbedaan hasil studi yang telah dilakukan sebelumnya. karena keberhasilan dari desentralisasi di setiap negara bukanlah sebuah kepastian, beberapa faktor juga mempengaruhi keberhasilan desentralisasi fiskal. bird dan vaillancourt (1998) menyatakan pokok dari desentralisasi lebih tergantung kepada negara itu sendiri. hal ini dikarenakan adanya perbedaan sejarah, tradisi, kelembagaan, politik, dan ekonomi. desentralisasi telah diaplikasikan dalam bentuk yang berbeda di negara yang berbeda pada waktu yang berbeda, dan bahkan jenis desentralisasi yang sama dapat menghasilkan dampak yang berbeda karena perbedaan kondisi lainnya. salah satu wujud desentralisasi fiskal di indonesia adalah berupa dana perimbangan yang diserahkan dan dilimpahkan wewenang penggunaannya dari pemerintah pusat kepada pemerintah daerah. dana perimbangan ini memiliki empat komponen, yaitu dana alokasi umum (dau), dana alokasi khusus (dak), dana bagi hasil pajak (dbhp), dan dana bagi hasil bukan pajak (dbhbp). selain itu, pemerintah daerah juga memiliki kewenangan untuk mengatur sendiri besaran pendapatan asli daerah (pad) yang terdiri dari pajak dan retribusi daerah serta laba badan usaha milik daerah (bumd) dan pengelolaan kekayaan daerah. penggunaan anggaran penerimaan yang berasal dari dana perimbangan dan pad menjadi kewenangan daerah untuk mengalokasikannya demi kesejahteraan masyarakat di daerah yang dapat diukur dari berapa besar pertumbuhan per kapita di setiap provinsi. di samping desentralisasi fiskal, ada banyak faktor yang dipertimbangkan mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi di suatu daerah. beberapa teori juga telah menjelaskan faktor-faktor jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 1, april 2014: 12-22 16 apa saja yang mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi. teori pertumbuhan ekonomi pada dasarnya menggunakan fungsi produksi yang berisi dua input, yaitu modal dan tenaga kerja. dalam perekonomian terbuka, menurut teori pertumbuhan neoklasik, perdagangan internasional akan menjadi faktor dari luar negeri yang mendorong percepatan pertumbuhan ekonomi (todaro dan smith, 2009). perbedaan kondisi tenaga kerja dan perdagangan internasional di setiap daerah dapat memperlihatkan karakteristik daerah masing-masing. studi ini mencoba menjelaskan pengaruh sektor publik dan faktor dari dalam serta luar negeri tersebut kepada pertumbuhan per kapita regional dalam kasus indonesia. tujuan yang hendak dicapai dalam studi ini adalah sebagai berikut, yaitu: untuk menganalisis pengaruh desentralisasi fiskal terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi per kapita regional di indonesia, untuk menganalisis pengaruh tenaga kerja terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi per kapita regional di indonesia, untuk menganalisis pengaruh perdagangan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi per kapita regional di indonesia. metode penelitian data yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah data sekunder dari anggaran pendapatan dan belanja daerah pada tahun anggaran 2006-2010 pada seluruh provinsi di indonesia serta data-data provinsi lainnya dari badan pusat statistik dan kementerian perdagangan pada tahun yang sama. tahun 2006-2010 diambil sebagai tahun analisis karena uu terbaru yang mengatur pemerintahan daerah di indonesia dikeluarkan pada tahun 2004 sehingga dapat dilihat apakah peraturan yang terbaru ini memiliki dampak yang positif secara ekonomi atau tidak. selain itu, berdirinya beberapa provinsi baru membuat ada beberapa data yang tidak tersedia pada tahun-tahun sebelumnya. studi ini mengukur desentralisasi fiskal melalui sisi penerimaan bukan seperti beberapa studi sebelumnya yang mengukurnya melalui sisi pengeluaran, sehingga model yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah: loggdpit = + logpadit + logdaukit + logdbhit + logworkit + exit + imit + uit 1) alat analisis yang digunakan adalah uji t tiap variabel dan uji f seluruh model dengan metode panel ordinary least square. ada tiga metode yang harus dipilih sebagai metode dengan estimasi terbaik, yaitu common effect, fixed effect, atau random effect. untuk menguji metode manakah yang memiliki estimasi terbaik, digunakan uji hausman dalam memilih antara metode fixed dan random effect serta uji f atau uji chow dalam memilih antara metode common dan fixed effect. statistik deskriptif dari variabel yang digunakan dalam studi ini dapat dilihat dalam tabel 3. tabel 3 variabel dengan sebaran data yang tabel 3. statistik deskriptif gdp pad dauk dbh work ex im mean 16792842 1,23e+12 5,58e+11 6,39e+11 3093842 0,28673 0,48314 median 12131534 5,12e+11 5,18e+11 1,61e+11 1705905 0,214 0,067 maximum 95096207 1,18e+13 1,63e+12 1,03e+13 19305056 1,668 17,277 minimum 2982284 1,86e+10 2,20e+10 4,10e+09 47309 0,001 0 std, dev, 17503816 2,01e+12 2,48e+11 1,50e+12 4570761 0,28215 2,1283 skewness 2,887319 3,146613 1,000402 4,43592 2,561309 2,03526 6,26075 kurtosis 11,00529 13,65534 5,179149 24,1577 8,257129 8,52412 42,1225 jarque-bera 669,8393 1052,844 59,07537 3618,709 370,4156 323,709 11249,1 probability 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 sum 2,77e+09 2,03e+14 9,04e+13 1,05e+14 5,10e+08 47,31 77,303 sum sq, dev, 5,02e+16 6,64e+26 9,88e+24 3,68e+26 3,43e+15 13,0555 720,216 observations 165 165 162 165 165 165 160 pertumbuhan ekonomi per kapita ... (kanetasya sabilla, wihana kirana jaya) 17 paling bervariasi adalah data pad. hal ini dapat dilihat dari nilai standar deviasi yang paling besar. sedangkan karena data ekspor dan impor diukur berdasarkan rasio terhadap pdrb, sebaran datanya menjadi tidak terlalu bervariasi dibandingkan dengan yang lain. karena itu, penulis memilih untuk mengukur variabel selain rasio ekspor dan impor terhadap pdrb dengan menggunakan logaritma agar sebaran datanya semakin mengelompok sehingga dapat lebih mudah diestimasi. ukuran jarque-bera menunjukkan apakah data itu berdistribusi normal atau tidak. jika nilai jarque-bera lebih tinggi dari nilai probabilitas, artinya data tersebut berdistribusi normal. pada tabel 3 seluruh nilai probabilitas jarque-bera menunjukkan angka 0 yang dapat diartikan bahwa tidak ada satu pun variabel yang digunakan dalam studi ini yang berdistribusi normal. namun, karena data yang digunakan bukan data dengan sampel acak yang berasal dari data primer, data tersebut dapat dikatakan tidak bias. seperti telah dijelaskan sebelumnya, studi ini menggunakan data sekunder. karena studi ini menggunakan data panel dengan jumlah cross-section sebanyak 33, sulit untuk melihat persebaran data setiap provinsi secara lebih mendetail. karena itu, perkembangan variabel akan dilihat setiap tahunnya dari tahun 2006 sampai tahun 2010 dengan menggunakan rata-rata seluruh provinsi setiap tahun. analisis ini digunakan untuk melihat perkembangan rata-rata variabel setiap tahunnya sehingga dapat ditentukan apakah suatu variabel memiliki kecenderungan peningkatan atau sebaliknya. gambar 1. rata-rata pdrb per kapita setiap provinsi di indonesia pada gambar 1 terlihat bahwa variabel pdrb riil per kapita di setiap provinsi di indonesia selalu meningkat setiap tahunnya jika diukur dengan rata-rata pdrb riil per kapita setiap provinsi di setiap tahun. pada tahun 2006, ratarata pdrb riil per kapita setiap provinsi di indonesia hanya sebesar: rp13.304.756 dan angka ini semakin meningkat hingga mencapai angka rata-rata tertingginya pada tahun 2010 sebesar rp20.252.423. berdasarkan tabel 3 juga dapat diartikan bahwa pdrb riil per kapita seluruh provinsi di indonesia tidak terpengaruh krisis ekonomi global pada tahun 2008-2009 karena krisis global yang seharusnya berdampak pada penurunan pdrb riil justru tidak terjadi. gambar 2. rata-rata pad setiap provinsi di indonesia gambar 2 menunjukkan rata-rata pad seluruh provinsi di indonesia pada tahun 20062010 selalu meningkat setiap tahunnya. pada tahun 2010, rata-rata pad seluruh provinsi di indonesia mencapai rp 1.472.876.967.576, nilai tertinggi selama 5 tahun terakhir di mana nilai terendah terjadi pada tahun 2006 sebesar rp909.804.971.537. peningkatan pad ini juga menunjukkan kemampuan daerah untuk terus meningkatkan pendapatan yang berasal dari daerahnya sendiri dan menghilangkan ketergantungan terhadap pemerintah pusat. gambar 3 menunjukkan rata-rata dau ditambah dak setiap provinsi di indonesia pada periode 2006-2010. dari gambar ini terlihat meskipun rata-rata pad meningkat setiap tahunnya, dau dan dak yang diterima oleh daerah setiap tahunnya juga meningkat. 13,000,000 14,000,000 15,000,000 16,000,000 17,000,000 18,000,000 19,000,000 20,000,000 21,000,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 mean of gdp 8.0e+11 9.0e+11 1.0e+12 1.1e+12 1.2e+12 1.3e+12 1.4e+12 1.5e+12 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 mean of pad jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 1, april 2014: 12-22 18 gambar 3. rata-rata dau ditambah dak setiap provinsi di indonesia rata-rata dau dan dak pada tahun 2006 merupakan yang terkecil, dengan nilai sebesar rp442.836.971.576. rata-rata dau dan dak pada tahun 2010 merupakan yang terbesar, dengan nilai sebesar rp609.335.965.272. peningkatan ini dapat mengindikasikan pemerintah pusat semakin mendesentralisasi anggaran agar pemerintah daerah dapat mengalokasikan anggaran yang lebih banyak untuk keperluan daerahnya masing-masing. dibandingkan dengan rata-rata pad, rata-rata dau dan dak seluruh provinsi di indonesia menunjukkan angka yang lebih kecil. ini juga mengindikasikan semakin berkurangnya ketergantungan daerah terhadap pusat. gambar 4. rata-rata dbh setiap provinsi di indonesia pada 2006-2010 dana bagi hasil, bersama dengan dau dan dak merupakan salah satu wujud desentralisasi di indonesia dari sisi penerimaan. gambar 4 menunjukkan rata-rata dbh setiap provinsi di indonesia pada 2006-2010. meski memiliki kecenderungan peningkatan setiap tahunnya, rata-rata pad sempat menurun pada tahun 2009. tapi penurunan ini tidak diikuti dengan penurunan lagi pada tahun berikutnya, pada tahun 2010 rata-rata dbh seluruh provinsi di indonesia kembali meningkat dengan nilai rp769.148.949.879. pada tahun 2010 dan secara rata-rata keseluruhan, nilai dbh lebih tinggi dibandingkan nilai dau ditambah dak. hal ini mengindikasikan pemerintah pusat lebih banyak memberikan dana perimbangan kepada daerah dalam bentuk dbh dibandingkan yang lain. gambar 5. rata-rata tenaga kerja setiap provinsi di indonesia pada 2006-2010 gambar 5 menunjukkan rata-rata tenaga kerja yang dimiliki oleh seluruh provinsi di indonesia pada tahun 2006-2010. rata-rata tenaga kerja seluruh provinsi di indonesia juga mengalami peningkatan setiap tahunnya. peningkatan angka tenaga kerja yang terus meningkat mengindikasikan kemampuan daerah untuk memberikan lapangan pekerjaan kepada penduduk di daerahnya. namun, kenaikan jumlah rata-rata tenaga kerja ini juga harus diimbangi dengan kenaikan kualitas dan produktivitas tenaga kerja agar peningkatan tenaga kerja berdampak positif pada kenaikan produksi daerah. gambar 6 menunjukkan rata-rata rasio ekspor riil terhadap pdrb riil seluruh provinsi di indonesia pada tahun 2006-2010. rasio ini menunjukkan intensitas perdagangan setiap provinsi di indonesia. rasio ini sempat mengalami peningkatan pada periode 2006-2008. namun, rasio ekspor terhadap pdrb ini harus mengalami penurunan tajam pada tahun 2009. hal ini dikarenakan adanya krisis ekonomi global yang berdampak pada lesunya perdagangan dunia pada saat itu. setelah melewati krisis ekonomi global, rata-rata rasio ekspor ter4.0e+11 4.4e+11 4.8e+11 5.2e+11 5.6e+11 6.0e+11 6.4e+11 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 mean of dauk 4.0e+11 4.5e+11 5.0e+11 5.5e+11 6.0e+11 6.5e+11 7.0e+11 7.5e+11 8.0e+11 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 mean of dbh 2,800,000 2,900,000 3,000,000 3,100,000 3,200,000 3,300,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 mean of work pertumbuhan ekonomi per kapita ... (kanetasya sabilla, wihana kirana jaya) 19 hadap pdrb seluruh provinsi di indonesia kembali meningkat. gambar 6. rata-rata rasio ekspor terhadap pdrb setiap provinsi di indonesia gambar 7 menunjukkan rata-rata rasio impor riil terhadap pdrb riil seluruh provinsi di indonesia pada tahun 2006-2010. rasio ini juga menunjukkan intensitas perdagangan setiap provinsi di indonesia. sama dengan rasio ekspor terhadap pdrb, rasio ini sempat mengalami peningkatan pada periode 2006-2008. namun rasio ekspor terhadap pdrb ini menurun pada tahun 2009. hal ini juga dikarenakan oleh adanya krisis ekonomi global. rasio impor terhadap pdrb kembali meningkat pada tahun 2010 selepas krisis ekonomi global. gambar 7. rata-rata rasio impor terhadap pdrb setiap provinsi di indonesia analisis yang digunakan oleh penulis dimulai dari melakukan estimasi dengan metode fixed effect karena metode common effect yang mengasumsikan data cross-section sama sepanjang data time-series tidak sesuai dengan realita sehingga studi ini pun tidak membutuhkan uji f. analisis dilanjutkan dengan melakukan estimasi dengan menggunakan metode random effect. seluruh estimasi dilakukan dengan menggunakan perangkat lunak eviews 6. hasil estimasi menggunakan metode fixed effect (fe) dan random effect (re) dirangkum oleh tabel 4. tabel 4. hasil regresi data panel metode fixed effect dan random effect variabel dependen: log(pdrb per kapita) fixed effect random effect konstanta -3,880910 (1,758011) 5,958662 (0,930914) log(pad) 0,206475*** (0,048153) 0,305770*** (0,043624) log(dauk) 0,063251*** (0,031716) -0,008685 (0,029498) log(dbh) 0,099010*** (0,040532) 0,211303*** (0,032241) log(work) 0,730030*** (0,149405) -0,213522*** (0,061454) ex -0,347902*** (0,072710) -0,256767*** (0,069506) im 0,009298 (0,008294) 0,011996 (0,007951) *signifikan pada α =10%; signifikan pada α =5%; signifikan pada α =1%; tabel 4 memperlihatkan perbedaan hasil koefisien dan signifikansi pada kedua jenis metode. pada metode fe, koefisien konstanta bernilai negatif. sementara pada metode re, koefisien konstanta bernilai positif. perbedaan juga terdapat pada jumlah variabel independen yang signifikan pada α=1%. pada model fe, seluruh koefisien parameter bernilai signifikan α=1% kecuali untuk variabel rasio impor/ pdrb. sementara pada model re, selain variabel rasio impor/pdrb yang tidak signifikan pada α=1%, variabel logaritma dau ditambah dak juga tidak signifikan pada α=1%. tabel 5 menunjukan nilai r-squared pada metode fe lebih besar daripada metode re yang menunjukkan metode fe lebih mampu menjelaskan variasi dari variabel dependen melalui variabel-variabel independen. ukuran f-statistic dari kedua metode menunjukkan signifikansi pada α = 1% sehingga kedua metode dapat dikatakan signifikan secara bersama-sama terhadap variabel dependen. .24 .25 .26 .27 .28 .29 .30 .31 .32 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 mean of ex .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 mean of im jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 1, april 2014: 12-22 20 tabel 5. hasil ukuran r-squared dan f-statistic fixed effect random effect r-squared 0,980669 rsquared 0,628145 adjusted r-squared 0,974444 adjusted rsquared 0,613270 f-statistic prob(fstatistic) 157.5307*** 0,000000 fstatistic prob(fstatistic) 42,23044*** 0,000000 *signifikan pada α =1% tabel 5 menunjukkan hasil uji hausman dari kedua metode di mana nilai probabilitas sebesar 0 menunjukkan hipotesis nol ditolak dan estimasi lebih baik menggunakan metode fe. hal ini juga sesuai dengan pendapat baltagi (2005) bahwa data panel dengan jumlah crosssection yang lebih banyak daripada jumlah timeseries sebaiknya menggunakan metode fe. tabel 6. hasil uji hausman test summary chi-square statistic chi square d.f. prob. crosssection random 73,168876 6 0,0000 mengamati serangkaian analisis yang telah dilakukan, dapat disimpulkan bahwa estimasi fe menghasilkan persamaan sebagai berikut: loggdpit = 3,880910 + 0,206475logpadit + 0,063251logdaukit + 0,099010logdbhit + 0,730030logworkit – 0,347902exit + 0,009298imit + uit koefisien konstanta yang bernilai negatif menunjukkan ketika variabel independen lain dianggap tetap maka pdrb per kapita menurun sebesar 3,881 persen. pad mempengaruhi kenaikan pdrb per kapita. jika pad meningkat satu persen, pdrb per kapita akan meningkat sebesar 0,206 persen. pad yang merupakan salah satu wujud desentralisasi fiskal dari sisi penerimaan dan menjadi salah satu pilar desentralisasi sebagai penugasan pendapatan mampu meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi regional di sebuah provinsi. dau yang ditambahkan dengan dak mencerminkan dana perimbangan dari pemerintah pusat kepada pemerintah daerah. jika dau dan dak meningkat sebesar satu persen, pdrb per kapita akan meningkat sebesar 0,063 persen. dana alokasi yang dikeluarkan oleh pemerintah pusat untuk menyeimbangkan pendapatan setiap provinsi dan untuk program-program tertentu sebagai bagian dari desentralisasi fiskal mampu meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi regional di sebuah provinsi. dana bagi hasil sebagi ukuran desentralisasi fiskal juga berpengaruh positif pada peningkatan pdrb per kapita. jika dana bagi hasil meningkat sebesar satu persen, pdrb per kapita akan meningkat sebesar 0,099 persen. dana bagi hasil sebenarnya bersumber dari daerah melalui pembayaran pajak dan kepemilikan sumber daya alam kemudian dimasukkan ke dalam dana perimbangan sebagai wujud dari desentralisasi fiskal. jika dana bagi hasil semakin ditingkatkan, pertumbuhan ekonomi regional di sebuah provinsi juga akan meningkat. tenaga kerja merupakan salah satu faktor yang berasal dari dalam negeri yang dapat mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi secara positif. jika tenaga kerja meningkat satu persen, pdrb per kapita akan meningkat sebesar 0,73 persen. peningkatan tenaga kerja, khususnya yang terdidik dan produktif, mampu meningkatkan produksi dalam negeri dan pada akhirnya mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi. rasio ekspor terhadap pdrb menjadi satusatunya variabel dalam hasil estimasi yang tidak dapat membuktikan hipotesis. jika rasio ekspor terhadap pdrb meningkat sebesar satu persen, pdrb per kapita justru menurun sebesar 0,348. walaupun bertentangan dengan hipotesis, hal ini dapat dijelaskan oleh salah satu teori pertumbuhan, yaitu teori revolusi ketergantungan internasional. dalam teori ini, negara maju mengeksploitasi sumber daya milik negara berkembang, salah satunya dalam hal perdagangan, sehingga menghambat pertumbuhan ekonomi negara berkembang (todaro dan smith, 2009). pertumbuhan ekonomi per kapita ... (kanetasya sabilla, wihana kirana jaya) 21 rasio impor terhadap pdrb merupakan variabel yang tidak signifikan secara statistik. tidak signifikannya variabel independen ini berarti kegiatan impor dari negara lain tidak akan mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi di sebuah provinsi di indonesia. simpulan hasil studi ini memberikan kesimpulan bahwa: pertama, desentralisasi fiskal berpengaruh positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi per kapita regional di seluruh provinsi di indonesia. dengan menggunakan ukuran melalui sisi penerimaan apbd, yaitu pendapatan asli daerah dan dana perimbangan, seluruh variabel independen yang menjelaskan desentralisasi fiskal signifikan secara statistik dan memiliki arah hubungan positif terhadap variabel dependen, pdrb per kapita. kedua, tenaga kerja sebagai salah satu faktor produksi dari dalam negeri berpengaruh positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi per kapita regional. ketiga, perdagangan internasional tidak berpengaruh atau bahkan berpengaruh negatif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi per kapita regional. variabel rasio ekspor terhadap pdrb berpengaruh negatif terhadap partumbuhan ekonomi regional di suatu daerah dan variabel rasio impor terhadap pdrb tidak berpengaruh. berdasarkan kesimpulan di atas, saran yang dapat diberikan dari studi ini adalah: pertama, bagi pemerintah pusat, kebijakan desentralisasi fiskal dengan memberikan lebih banyak dana perimbangan kepada daerah dapat menghasilkan pelayanan publik yang lebih efisien kepada masyarakat di setiap daerah. kedua, bagi pemerintah daerah, pad harus lebih ditingkatkan dibandingkan harus menggantungkan diri pada transfer dari pemerintah pusat. jika dilihat dari pilar desentralisasi fiskal, pemerintah daerah seharusnya lebih tahu seberapa besar pendapatan yang harus mereka miliki untuk programprogram pengeluaran daerah sehingga mereka dapat menyesuaikan jumlah anggaran pad yang dimiliki dengan pengeluaran program yang sudah disepakati sebelumnya (budget follows function). ketiga, bagi pemerintah daerah, peningkatan kesempatan kerja harus lebih ditingkatkan untuk menyerap lebih banyak tenaga kerja. selain itu pemerintah daerah juga harus meningkatkan keterampilan, pendidikan, dan produktivitas pekerja untuk lebih mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi regional. keempat, kebijakan keterbukaan perdagangan internasional harus dievaluasi terlebih dahulu karena mengekspor bahan baku yang belum diolah justru akan merugikan daerah. hal ini dapat disebabkan nilai tambah yang tidak didapatkan oleh daerah apalagi jika daerah melakukan impor untuk barang jadi yang bahan bakunya justru berasal dari daerah itu sendiri. daftar pustaka baltagi, b h. (2005). econometric analysis of panel data. 3rd ed. west sussex: john wiley and sons ltd. bird, r m. dan christine w. (1993). fiscal decentralization and intergovernmental relations in transition economies: toward a systematic framework of analysis’. world bank 1122, policy research working paper. bird, r m. dan vaillancourt, f. (1998). fiscal decentralization in developing countries: an overview dalam: richard m. bird dan francois vaillan court, fiscal decentralization in developing countries. cambridge: university press. ebel, r d. dan serdar y. (2002). on the measurement and impact of fiscal decentralization. world bank study 2809, policy research working paper. faridi, m z. (2011). contribution of fiscal decentralization to economic growth: evidence from pakistan. pakistan journal of social sciences, 31(1): 1-13. matsui, k. (2003). decentralization in nation state building of indonesia. ide research paper, (2). nguyen, l p dan sajid a. (2011). fiscal decentralisation and economic growth in vietnam. journal of the asia pacific economy, 16 (1): 3-14. oates, w. e. (1993). fiscal decentralization and economic development. national tax journal, 26 (2): 237-243. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 1, april 2014: 12-22 22 oates, w e. (1999). an essay on fiscal federalism. journal of economic literature, 37(3): 1120-1149. shahdani, m s., et al., (2012). fiscal decentralization, income distribution and economic growth: a case study for iran. journal of economic theory, 6 (2): 76-80. sodiq dan nuryadin. (2005). desentralisasi fiskal dan pertumbuhan ekonomi regional di indonesia, (studi kasus pada 26 provinsi). jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan. vol. 6, no. 2, oktober 2005: 165182. sumodiningrat, g. (2004). otonomi daerah dalam penanggulangan kemiskinan: upaya-upaya pengurangan pengangguran dan pemberdayaan usaha mikro di tingkat lokal. jakarta. tanzi, v. (1996). fiscal federalism and decentralization: a review of some efficiency and macroeconomic aspects. annual world bank conference on development countries. todaro, m p. dan stephen c. s. (2009). economic development. 10th edition. essex: pearson education limited. united nations development program, (2005). ‘fiscal decentralisation and poverty reduction’. undp primer wooldridge, j m. (2009). introductory econometrics: a modern approach. 4th ed. australia: south western zhang, t dan heng-fu. (1998). fiscal decentralization, public spending, and economic growth in china. journal of public economies, 67: 221-240. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 22 nomor 2, oktober 2021 article type: research paper dynamic tourism in asean countries: do institutional indicators matter? vita kartika sari* and malik cahyadin abstract: tourism is one of the fastest-growing industries. tourism is able to move the economy forward at the micro-level such as encouraging the informal sector and local potential while at the macro level it can increase currency transactions. in various countries, the tourism sector is able to increase domestic and foreign demands as well as to encourage transportation, hospitality, and manufacturing industries. this study examines the effect of institutional indicators on tourism in asean countries during 2000-2018 under dynamic panel estimation. the number of observations was about 180, namely: time series from 2000-2018 and cross-section of 10 countries. asean as one of the destinations in the world requires an increase in institutional quality to be able to compete and provide world-class tourism services. the six institutional indicators were employed such as voice and accountability, political stability and absence of violence, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, and control of corruption. moreover, the dynamic panel estimation was expressed by pooled ols and rem estimations. interestingly, the findings show that political stability compromises the number of tourist arrivals while government effectiveness can stimulate tourist arrivals. similarly, gdp per capita can hinder the number of tourist arrivals, while the exchange rate leads increasing of tourism arrivals. thus, the governments in asean countries can promote and cooperate together to develop tourism in the regional level. the gdp per capita of asean countries should be increased, and the level of exchange rate can be maintained at a stable range. besides, the governments should also improve the quality of institutions. keywords: tourism; institutions; dynamic panel jel classification: o17; o43; z32 introduction tourism is one of the fastest-growing industries in the world. tourism activities become one of the economic drivers and sources of foreign exchange reserves for a country. the development of tourism leads to the accelerated growth of the tourism business in accordance with the needs and expenses of modern society for travel and entertainment. asean member countries have a strategic plan for tourism development in the 2016-2025 period because of the contribution to asean economic growth. furthermore, a country will provide tourist facilities and promote tourist uniqueness to attract both domestic and foreign tourists in significant numbers. affiliation: department of development economics, faculty of economics and business, universitas sebelas maret, central java, indonesia *correspondence: vitahanifanaira@gmail.com this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v22i2.11282 citation: sari, v.k., & cahyadin, m. (2021). dynamic tourism in asean countries: do institutional indicators matter? jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 22(2), 201212. article history received: 07 mar 2021 revised: 03 jun 2021 accepted: 10 sep 2021 https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?user=aobza0oaaaaj&hl=en https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?user=smpx8keaaaaj&hl=en https://feb.uns.ac.id/feb/s1_ekonomi_pembangunan/ https://feb.uns.ac.id/feb/s1_ekonomi_pembangunan/ https://feb.uns.ac.id/feb/s1_ekonomi_pembangunan/ https://feb.uns.ac.id/feb/s1_ekonomi_pembangunan/ mailto:vitahanifanaira@gmail.com http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/11282 https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v22i1.7836&domain=pdf https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v22i1.11282&domain=pdf sari & cahyadin dynamic tourism in asean countries: do institutional indicators matter? jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 202 for example, the 2019 travel & tourism competitiveness index (ttci) showed that singapore was ranked first in tourism competitiveness in southeast asia, followed by malaysia, thailand, indonesia, vietnam, brunei darussalam, and the philippines. meanwhile, the world bank noted an increase in the number of tourists over the past 10 years in asean, particularly malaysia, thailand, singapore, and indonesia. mohamad and ab ghani (2014) argued that tourism is one of the largest industries in the world that stimulates economic growth, income distribution, employment opportunities, and foreign currency transactions. the tourism industry has significantly boosted economic growth in developing countries. tourism encourages exports, reduces unemployment, encourages micro and small businesses, and stimulates the regional economy (samimi et al., 2011). haseeb et al. (2019) described that tourism growth in asean is very fast and has longterm potentials for state revenue. demand or tourist arrivals in the tourism industry can be determined by the availability of facilities, uniqueness, and quality of services. simply put the better the service, the demand will increase. several works of literature mentioned the importance of service quality as stated by albacete-saez et al. (2007) that infrastructure and excellent service attract subsequent visits and increase income. mola and jusoh (2011) and padlee et al. (2019) confirmed that service quality is a key element in the hospitality industry that supports the tourism industry. moreover, canny (2013) described service quality is a competitiveness key in the tourism industry as well as a characteristic compared to other tourist attractions. furthermore, the tourism industry is also linked with various business and environmental challenges such as fluctuating economic conditions, weather changes, service quality, and business competition. a sustainable tourism industry requires good institutional support, such as infrastructures, telecommunications, security and political stability, and regulation. the institutional issues of tourism literature are rarely studied so it opens up a deeper discussion. good institutions can sustain economic activity (north, 1990), furthermore, lee et al. (2020), as well as khan et al. (2020), proved that institutions have the potential to encourage the tourism sector. this study contributes to the existing literature in several ways. the first contribution is to examine the impact of institutional indicators on dynamic tourism in asean countries. some previous empirical studies argued that institutions can promote tourism development. (chatzigeorgiou & simeli, 2017; kastenholz et al., 2012; khan et al., 2020; lee et al., 2020; rahajeng, 2017). however, the previous studies largely ignore to estimate the dynamic estimation of tourism under six institutional indicators published by the world governance indicators (wgi) of the world bank. lee et al. (2020) used world bank institutional indicators namely control of corruption, regulatory quality, government effectiveness, rule of law, political stability and absence of violence, and voice and accountability. the control of corruption had a positive influence on malaysian tourism but a negative influence on economic output. government effectiveness showed a positive influence on tourism but indicated a negative sign on economic growth. this study also selects some macroeconomic data as explanatory variables such as gdp per capita and exchange rate. these indicators are mostly utilized by previous studies to sari & cahyadin dynamic tourism in asean countries: do institutional indicators matter? jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 203 determine tourist arrivals analysis both in a country level and across the country level. changes in lifestyle lead to high demand for services, especially tourism services, causing its rapid growth. lee et al. (2020) mentioned that the high demand for leisure can be in the form of adventure, cultural tourism, religious tourism, wildlife, and ecotourism. tourism service providers strive to provide the best deals in the form of attractive experiences at the best prices. therefore, this study attempts to estimate the impact of institutional indicators on the number of tourist arrivals in asean during 2000-2018. previous studies (lee et al., 2020) only analyzed the relationship between tourism and economic performance, where the macroeconomic perspective ideally incorporates institutions as a key factor in economic growth. khan et al. (2020) affirmed the important role of institutions in running a tourism business. khan et al. (2020) also stated that improvements in institutional quality can attract tourists to visit. therefore, this study aimed to analyze institutional factors in the economic literature on tourism performance contributing to economic output. khan et al. (2020) analyzed the institutional impact on tourism in selected asian pacific countries with variables such as judicial independence, impartial courts, military interference in rule of law and politics, protection of property rights, reliability of police, the integrity of the legal system, enforcement of contracts, regulatory restrictions on the sale of real property, and business costs of crime, also credit market regulations, business regulations, and labor market regulations. lee et al. (2020) used institutional indicators such as control of corruption, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, voice and accountability, political stability, and absence of violence on malaysian tourism. rahajeng (2017) analyzed the institutional influence of local government policies on tourism in yogyakarta. figure 1 number of tourists in asean countries during 2000-2018 (person) source: world bank, 2020 0 5000000 10000000 15000000 20000000 25000000 30000000 35000000 40000000 45000000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 brunei darussalam cambodia indonesia lao pdr myanmar malaysia philippines singapore thailand vietnam sari & cahyadin dynamic tourism in asean countries: do institutional indicators matter? jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 204 the world bank publication showed that the number of tourists in asean countries tended to increase during 2000-2018 (figure 1). malaysia and thailand were able to attract tourists to visit over time. these countries provided various tourist attractions, facilities, and information that make it easy and interesting for tourists around the world. in contrast, countries such as brunei darussalam, cambodia, lao pdr, and myanmar were not able to increase the number of tourists in significant numbers. this condition was likely related to the institutional quality of these countries. indeed, institutional quality becomes a critical issue in some asean countries to attract tourist arrivals. in the literature, tourism is capable in driving the economic performance of developing countries by increasing foreign currency transactions to opening up new employment opportunities (samimi et al., 2011). moreover, tourism led-growth hypothesis explains that international tourism contributes as a source of national income, through exchange rate and export channels (brida & risso, 2009; ohlan, 2017; ribeiro & wang, 2020; samimi et al., 2011). tourism encourages the emergence of creative industries which not only provide income for the community but also promote local creative products. in practice, the tourism industry has micro and macro impacts. at a micro level, it empowers informal sectors, raises the culture and potential of local tourism, promotes regional foods, and encourages hotel and transportation sectors. the industry will drive the national economy in the end. therefore, the tourism sector is able to have a positive impact on the macroeconomy in a long term. it is reinforced by some evidence of the existence of several regions in indonesia which are supported by the tourism industry such as bali, the special region of yogyakarta, and lombok. hence, habibi et al. (2018) and selimi et al. (2017) argued that the tourism sector is one of the largest service transactions in the world. moreover, this study bridges the empirical gap of institutions on tourism development. indeed, institutional quality is a key factor in economic development (khan et al., 2020). north (1990) argues that excellent institutional quality plays pivotal roles in economic, political, and social sectors. meanwhile, poor institutional quality affects the performance of the tourism sector since the tourism industry is multi-sectoral and service-oriented. the findings discovered by lee et al. (2020) show the importance of institutional issues such as government effectiveness and control of corruption which have a positive impact on tourist visits and generally increase the national income of malaysia. similarly, the institutional quality of institutions affects the number of tourist visits in asia pacific countries even though changes in institutional quality have not always been responded to by the increased number of tourist arrivals in asia pacific countries (khan et al., 2020). the findings of previous empirical studies exhibit largely limited studies of the impact of institutions on dynamic tourism development. thus, this study focuses on the dynamic analysis of tourism in asean countries during 2000-2018. research method this study utilized secondary data published by the world bank during 2000-2018. the dependent variable was the number of tourist arrivals (person). it was converted into a sari & cahyadin dynamic tourism in asean countries: do institutional indicators matter? jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 205 logarithm in the estimation model (lta). meanwhile, the independent variables covered gdp per capita (gdpc, current usd), exchange rates (er, lcu per usd), and institutional indicators (index between -2.5 to 2.5). the value of -2.5 equaled weak institutional quality while the value of 2.5 equaled strong institutional quality. moreover, there were six institutional indicators i.e. voice and accountability (va), political stability and absence of violence (pst), government effectiveness (ge), regulatory quality (rq), rule of law (rl), and control of corruption (cc). macroeconomic variables namely gdp/capita, real exchange rate, and inflation had a strong influence on tourism arrivals. institutional variables namely political stability, voice and accountability, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, and control of corruption had a positive influence on increasing tourism arrivals. figure 2 institutions quality in asean countries during 2000-2018 source: world bank, 2020 table 1 definition of operational variable data/variable definition of variables data source number of tourism arrivals (ta) person. world bank gdp per capita (gdpc) (current us$). world bank inflation (inf) consumer prices (annual %). world bank official exchange rate (er) (lcu per us$, period average). world bank political stability (pol) ranges from approximately -2.5 (weak) to 2.5 (strong) governance performance. world bank voice & accountability (va) ranges from approximately -2.5 (weak) to 2.5 (strong) governance performance. world bank government effectiveness (ge) ranges from approximately -2.5 (weak) to 2.5 (strong) governance performance. world bank regulatory quality (rq) ranges from approximately -2.5 (weak) to 2.5 (strong) governance performance. world bank rule of law (rl) ranges from approximately -2.5 (weak) to 2.5 (strong) governance performance. world bank control of corruption (cc) ranges from approximately -2.5 (weak) to 2.5 (strong) governance performance. world bank -3,000 -2,000 -1,000 0,000 1,000 2,000 3,000 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 7 2 0 1 4 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 6 2 0 0 4 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 8 2 0 0 6 2 0 1 3 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 8 2 0 1 5 2 0 0 3 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 7 2 0 0 5 2 0 1 2 2 0 0 0 2 0 0 7 2 0 1 4 2 0 0 2 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 6 2 0 0 4 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 8 brunei camb indo laos myan malay philip sgp thai vtm regulatory quality rule of law voice&accountability political stability sari & cahyadin dynamic tourism in asean countries: do institutional indicators matter? jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 206 this study develops the empirical study conducted by lee et al. (2020) in two forms, namely: the number of institutional indicators consisting of six indicators, and an empirical technique of dynamic panel data. the dynamic panel model developed by pesaran (2015) explains that the lag of the dependent variable becomes one of the independent variables. hence, this study formulates the dependent variable which can be expressed in the logarithm form of tourist arrivals (lta) as determined by gdp per capita (gdpc), the exchange rate (er), and six institutional indicators. the empirical model of dynamic panel data can be written as follows: ltait = α0 + β1ltait-1 + β2gdpcit + β3erit + ∑ 𝛽𝑗 𝑋𝑖𝑡 6 𝑗=1 + εit (1) equation (1) denotes a pooled ols or common effects model (cem) that can be developed into a fixed effect model (fem) and random effects model (rem) equations in equation (2) and (3), respectively. ltait = α0 + α1dni + β1ltait-1 + β2gdpcit + β3erit + ∑ 𝛽𝑗 𝑋𝑖𝑡 6 𝑗=1 + εit (2) ltait = α0 + β1ltait-1 + β2gdpcit + β3erit + ∑ 𝛽𝑗 𝑋𝑖𝑡 6 𝑗=1 + wit (3) equation 2 uses fem which includes dummy variables to see the difference in parameters across time and across cross-section units. equation 3 uses rem where different parameters between regions and between times are included in the error component. the α0 equals intercept while β1, β2, β3, and β4, are parameters/slope of the equation. furthermore, the i denotes the cross-section of asean 10 countries, t is the time series of 2000-2018, j is the number of institutional indicators, and x is six institutional indicators. gujarati (2003) affirmed that the panel model has many advantages, so a classical assumptions test is no longer needed. result and discussion descriptive statistics inform the distribution of the data. in general, there are several descriptive statistics indicators as explained in table 1 including the mean, standard deviation, minimum, and maximum values. for example, the mean of institutional indicators in asean countries during 2000-2018 was below 1. it means that the level of institutional quality in these countries was relatively weak. thus, governments in asean need to be more concerned on the quality of institutions. this study estimates the impact of institutional indicators on the number of tourist arrivals in asean countries during 2000-2018. it also selects some macroeconomic data as explanatory variables such as gdp per capita and exchange rate. the dynamic panel data were employed under three methods, namely: pooled ols (pols), fixed effects model (fem), and random effects model (rem). the pols and rem estimation shows that the dynamic panel model of tourist arrivals in asean during the study period occurred. sari & cahyadin dynamic tourism in asean countries: do institutional indicators matter? jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 207 however, the lagged number of tourist arrivals has a negative impact on the current number of tourist arrivals. table 2 descriptive statistics variable mean std. dev. min max observations lta 14.77 2.31 2.00 17.00 n = 190 gdpc 9401.21 15152.92 137.00 64582 n = 190 er 4209.876 6128.39 1.25 22602 n = 190 va -0.71 0.69 -2.2 0.46 n = 190 pst -0.17 0.91 -2.09 1.61 n = 190 ge 0.09 0.98 -1.61 2.43 n = 190 rq -0.05 1.00 -2.34 2.26 n = 190 rl -0.21 0.86 -1.74 1.84 n = 190 cc -0.264 0.98 -1.673 2.32 n = 190 table 3 dynamic panel estimation result variable pooled ols fixed effects random effects lta(-1) -4.587 [-2.01]** -0.150 [-0.10] -4.5870 [-2.01]** gdpc -0.000 [-2.55]** 0.000 [4.43]*** -0.000 [-2.55]** er 0.000 [2.96]* 0.000 [1.80]* 0.000 [2.96]*** va -0.463 [-1.13] -0.891 [-2.11]** -0.463 [-1.13] pst -1.221 [-3.79]*** 0.621 [2.07]** -1.221 [-3.79]*** ge 1.642 [2.07]** -0.124 [-0.19] 1.642 [2.07]** rq 0.147 [0.23] 0.928 [1.50] 0.147 [0.23] rl 0.028 [0.03] -1.760 [-2.03]** 0.028 [0.03] cc 0.289 [0.46] 1.052 [1.57] 0.289 [0.46] constant 14.484 [31.84]*** 12.876 [28.32]*** 14.484 [31.84]*** r-square: within 0.0062 0.2507 0.0062 between 0.6808 0.1143 0.6808 overall 0.2912 0.0245 0.2912 wald chi-square 69.83*** 5.99*** 69.83*** (f-statistics) lm test 0.00 hausman test 40.51*** observations 180 180 180 note: [] denotes z statistics; ***, ** and * denote significant levels at 1%, 5% and 10%, respectively fem estimation describes that dynamic model of tourism in asean countries did not occur. in the fem method results, the lag of tourist arrival had no influence on the number of tourist visits. surprisingly, some institutional indicators determined the number of tourist arrivals such as voice and accountability, political stability and absence of violence, and rule of law. besides, the gdp per capita and the exchange rate had a positive impact and significant on the number of tourist arrivals. furthermore, the hausman test confirmed that fem was an appropriate static panel model. sari & cahyadin dynamic tourism in asean countries: do institutional indicators matter? jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 208 moreover, the rem estimation shows that a dynamic panel model of tourist arrivals in asean countries occurred. it means that the number of tourist arrivals in the current period was determined by the number of tourist arrivals in the previous period. however, the finding expresses that the lag of tourist arrivals had a negative impact on the current tourist arrivals. besides, gdp per capita and political stability had a significant and negative impact on the number of tourist arrivals while the exchange rate had a significant and positive impact. political stability had a significant and negative effect. foreign tourists are not willing to carry out tourism activities if there is no guarantee of political stability which involves security and safety. the goodness of fit of the empirical model can be expressed by the within r-square of fem which was estimated higher than pols and rem (0.2507>0.0062). meanwhile, the between r-square of fem was estimated lower than pols and rem (0.1143<0.6808). it indicates that the within-group fem estimation was more appropriate. besides, the fstatistics of all estimation models were significant. this indicates the independent variables had a significant influence on the dependent variable simultaneously. the findings of this study bring to the scholarly discussion of a nowadays institutional framework called as the new institutional economy (nie). nie offers balanced ideas between the government, business people, and even ordinary people. nie offers important variables in economic activities that play a role in efforts to economic growth, such as the patent, ease of establishing a business, transaction costs, to administrative complexity that has not yet been "considered". furthermore, santosa (2008) explained that nie is present because of frequent market failures, such as asymmetric market information conditions, externalities, to the existence of public goods. nie also focuses on studies of institutional failures that occur in many countries. according to nie, there is a structured relationship between institutions and economics, that is, economic conditions will determine the shape of the institutional structure. economic transactions can only occur because of the existence of an institution. thus, this study can exhibit a significant contribution of institutions to tourism in asean countries. some previous empirical studies found that tourism institutions such as social, emotional, and symbol were significant to realize tourist satisfaction (kastenholz et al., 2012). it indicates that high levels of institutions will have an indirectly significant impact on the number of tourist arrivals. chatzigeorgiou and simeli (2017) also argued that dynamic service quality will drive visitor satisfaction. the empirical study on the role of government in tourism development has been carried out by rahajeng (2017). the findings showed that the local government contributed to the development of tourism facilities, marketing, and improvement of the institutional framework. meanwhile, the findings of this study are macro in nature, emphasizing a number of macroeconomic indicators and six institutional indicators. specifically, lee et al. (2020) shows the significant impact of institutional indicators such as government effectiveness and control of corruption on tourist visits and the national income of malaysia. the results found a dynamic model of tourist visits in asean in general. based on fem, voice and accountability were significant. based on the pooled method, fem, and rem, political stability and the absence of violence were significant, indicating that the tourism industry needs support for sari & cahyadin dynamic tourism in asean countries: do institutional indicators matter? jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 209 conducive governance with guaranteed security. based on pooled model and rem, government effectiveness was significant showing that the efficiency of public services can support the tourism sector. based on fem, the rule of law had a significant influence on tourist arrival in asean, where if the rule of law is not upheld based on justice, it can reduce the interest of tourists visiting asean. this study has employed some macroeconomic indicators to determine dynamic tourist arrivals in asean countries. some previous studies largely concerned on the linkage between economic growth and tourism. leana et al. (2014) examined the correlation between economic growth and the tourism sector in malaysia and singapore. similar findings were reported by atan and arslanturk (2012) and zortuk (2009) that there is a one-way correlation between tourism sector performance and economic growth in turkey, a long-run relationship between economic growth and the number of tourist arrivals, and significant contribution of restaurants and hotels in the tourism business. in addition, kumar et al. (2014) found that tourism has a negative impact on the economy of malaysia in the short-run. while a positive impact in the long-run. specifically, the tourism industry of malaysia also drives productivity by increasing labor and stimulating investment. lee et al. (2020) found an important role in the control of corruption and government effectiveness to encourage tourism in malaysia. the effectiveness of government administration has a significant influence on tourist visits in malaysia. table 4 two-step dynamic panel of system gmm estimation variable lta c 52.37 (2.81)*** lta(-1) -1.87 (-2.34)** lgdpc 1.24 (2.19)** ler 1.05 (3.75)*** va 33.79 (2.72)*** pst 16.61 (2.56)** ge 2.34 (1.24) rq -29.89 (-2.73)*** rl 25.34 (2.65)*** cc -25.25 (-2.70)*** sargan test 0.00 (p-value) (1.00) autocorrelation of order 1 -0.53 (p-value) (0.59) n x t 10 x 3 note: all models are estimated using the blundell and bond (1998) estimations. the result is no autocorrelation. figures in the parentheses are t-statistics. ∗∗∗, ∗∗ and * indicate significance at the 1%, 5%, and 10% levels, respectively. this study estimated equation (1)-(3) by using a two-step system generalized method of moment (gmm) estimator developed by blundell and bond (1998). the gmm system estimated the equations in the combination of level and difference and lagged level of the regressor. furthermore, the two-step gmm system can produce efficient estimates. the data period was made an average of 5 years resulting in 4 categories of data series namely sari & cahyadin dynamic tourism in asean countries: do institutional indicators matter? jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 210 2000-2004, 2005-2009, 2010-2014, and 2015-2018. based on the robustness test by using the gmm arellano-bond two-step estimator, all institutional variables were significant, except the government effectiveness. the dynamic panel method using the arellanobond gmm approach can be said to be good if it meets the criteria for consistency and instrument validity. based on table 3, the dynamic panel method using the arellano-bond gmm approach has met the criteria for the best model, both statistically consistent and valid. the sargan test results showed no correlation between residuals and overidentifying restrictions or the instrument variable used more than the number of suspected parameters. accordingly, there is no problem with validity. when compared to table 3, gmm is more efficient and has more significant independent variables. conclusion this study examines dynamic panel models of tourist arrivals in asean countries during 2000-2018. institutional indicators are endogenous factors in economic activity, so this study contributes to the institutional analysis literature on the formation of economic output through the tourism sector. the number of tourist arrivals was determined by some institutional indicators. empirically, there are six institutional indicators published by world governance indicators (wgi) under the world bank. moreover, there were two macroeconomic data selected as explanatory variables such as gdp per capita and exchange rates. besides, the pooled ols and random effects model (rem) have exhibited the dynamic panel model of tourist arrivals in asean countries. however, fem indicates the dynamic panel model of tourist arrivals did not occur. interestingly, the hausman test indicates that fem was an appropriate model of static panel data. the findings exhibit that under pooled ols and rem there are two institutional indicators i.e. political stability and government effectiveness that can determine the number of tourist arrivals in asean countries during the study period. in addition, the macroeconomic data comprising gdp per capita and exchange rate also significantly contribute to the number of tourist arrivals. this study summarizes that government effectiveness and exchange rate can underpin the number of tourist arrivals in asean while the political stability and gdp per capita undermine the number of tourist arrivals. institutional significance such as voice and accountability, political stability and absence of violence, government effectiveness, and the rule of law underlies the results. the governments of asean countries must maintain government effectiveness, improve public services, and reduce corruption in order to create a stable and conducive life. in the long run, it will boost the tourism sector's performance. good institutional quality standards encourage the tourist's arrival. some policy implications can be formulated such that the governments of asean countries should improve the quality of institutions through better the provision of public goods, procedural simplifications, and conducive political stability. moreover, they can collaborate intensively to formulate macroeconomic policies such as promoting a high level of gdp per capita and maintaining the level of the exchange rate at a stable range. sari & cahyadin dynamic tourism in asean countries: do institutional indicators matter? jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 211 references albacete-sáez, c. a., mar fuentes-fuentes, m., & javier lloréns-montes, f. 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(2019). technological progress and human development: evidence from indonesia. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 20(1), 99-111 article history received: september 2018 accepted: april 2019 http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp muchdie & nurrasyidin technological progress and human development: evidence from indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 100 expectancy, which in 2015 reached 70.78 years, rose 0.19 percent compared to 2014. during the period 2010-2015, indonesia succeeded in increasing the life expectancy at birth by 0.97 years. furthermore, the dimensions of education are determined by indicators of school length expectations and average length of school. in 2015, the duration of schooling in indonesia reached 12.55. that is, children aged 7 years have the opportunity to finish their education until graduating from high school or d-1. while the average length of school in indonesia reached 7.84. that number rose 0.11 from the figure in 2014, which was 7.73. the final dimension is the economic dimension, with indicators of decent living standards represented by the per capita expenditure of 2012 constant prices adjusted for purchasing power parity (anonymous, 2016a). another variable that is strongly related to human development is poverty. poverty is defined as a condition of inability to meet basic needs such as food, clothing, shelter, education, and health. poverty can be caused by a scarcity of basic fulfillment needs, or difficult access to education and employment (anonymous, 2016a). in the 2004-2009 medium‐term development plan (rpjm), the government targeted the percentage of those living below the poverty line1 decrease from 17.42 percent in 2004 to 8.20 percent in 2009. in the 2010-2014 medium‐term development plan (rpjm) the percentage of poor people was targeted at 8 percent in 2014 (suryahadi, et al., 2010). the problem of poverty is also related to the issue of income inequality. income inequality is a condition where the distribution of income received by society is uneven. inequality is determined by the level of development and ethnic heterogeneity. inequality is also related to dictatorships and governments that fail to respect property rights (glaeser, 2005). poverty is closely related to the inequality of income distribution. if income distribution is uneven, it can certainly disrupt the economy, even leading to increased poverty. high economic growth but not accompanied by a level of income will still leave the number and percentage of poor people who will have an impact on health, education and purchasing power. one of the most popular measures of inequality is the gini index (gini ratio), which is a measure of aggregate inequality whose values range between zero and one. the zero gini index value means there is no inequality, while the value of one means perfect inequality. this index is purely a statistical measure for variability and normative measures in measuring inequality. historically, technology has played a central role in improving the living standards of citizens, including the poor. green revolution and various modern innovations in the field of health and medicine are important instruments in improving nutrition, health and life for millions of people. agricultural biotechnology and medicine are very promising, even though risks still need to be taken into account before their full potential can be realized. new information technology is an initial diffusion, but the impact can be very deep for the lives of the poor, empowering them to achieve access to classified information is scarce (oecd & adb, 2002). technological advances almost always have a positive impact on economic growth and increased income, but with 1 the poverty line is equivalent to 2100 calories per capita per day for the food and basic non-food consumption component. muchdie & nurrasyidin technological progress and human development: evidence from indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 101 inequality in access to production, poverty remains. ideally, technological progress will reduce poverty. human development is an approach or model of development that focuses on people. undp (2015) emphasized that human development is a development approach that puts forward "human flourishing". human development is a process of expanding people's choices that enable them to enjoy long and healthy, educated and decent lives (anonymous, 2015). thus, the three dimensions of human development are income as measured by purchasing power parity, health as measured by life expectancy, and education measured by the opportunity to obtain education and length of school. human development is measured by the human development index (hdi), which is a measurement of the comparison of life expectancy, literacy, education and living standards for all countries around the world. hdi is used to classify whether a country is a developed country, developing country or underdeveloped country and also to measure the influence of economic policy on quality of life (davies & quinlivan, 2006). the hdi explains how people can access the results of development in obtaining income, health, education, and so on. ipm was introduced by (undp) in 1990 and published periodically in the annual report of the human development report. the hdi is formed by 3 (three) basic dimensions: (1) long life and healthy life, (2) knowledge, and (3) decent living standards (anonymous, 2014a). poverty is a condition where a person has a certain amount of material or money. according to ricardo (2008), this is a face-to-face concept, which includes social, economic and political elements. many definitions have been introduced, for example the most famous in the 1970s was the sayogyo2 poverty line which was equivalent to 240 kg of rice per capita per year, suparlan (1984) with urban poverty, and edi suharto (2009). poverty is the inability to have choices and opportunities, a violation of human excellence. this means that there is a lack of basic capacity to participate effectively in society. it also means that there is insufficient food and clothing, no schooling and medical treatment, no land for farming or employment to obtain income, nor does it have access to credit. that also means being insecure, having no power. it also means "susceptibility to violence" and often implies living in a marginal and vulnerable environment, without access to clean water and sanitation (anonymous, 2016b). at the same time, there are also those that define poverty as the low welfare of society and this includes many dimensions. that includes low income and the inability to obtain basic needs to survive by being successful. poverty is also related to low levels of health and education, limited access to clean water and sanitation, vulnerable security, voices and insufficient capacity and opportunities for a better life (anonymous, 2011). poverty can be defined as absolute poverty and relative poverty. absolute poverty refers to a standard that is consistent over time and between countries. absolute poverty is a 2 http://www.kompasiana.com/economist-suweca.blogspot.com/prof-sajogyo-dan-gariskemiskinan_55102882813311d138bc614b muchdie & nurrasyidin technological progress and human development: evidence from indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 102 condition characterized by the absence of the availability of basic human needs such as food, healthy drinking water, sanitation facilities, health, shelter, education and information. poverty depends not only on income, but also depends on access to services3. absolute poverty is often interpreted as extreme poverty. robert mcnamara, former president of the world bank, describes absolute poverty or extreme poverty as "a condition so limited by malnutrition, illiteracy, disease, squalid surroundings, high infant mortality, and low expectancy as to be beneath any reasonable definition of human decency"4. first introduced in 1990, one dollar a day in measuring absolute poverty by the standards of the world's poorest countries. the world bank set an international poverty line of $ 1.25 per day in 2008 (which is equal to us $ 1.00 per day in 1996). in october 2015, it was re-set to us $ 1.90 per day5. the poverty line of us $ 1.90 per day set by the world bank is somewhat controversial because each country has its own boundaries for its absolute poverty line. for example, in the united states the poverty line is us $ 15.15 per person per day in 2010 (us $ 22,000 per year for families with 4 members)6, while in india the poverty line is us $ 1.0 per person per day7, in indonesia the poverty line is us $ 0.84 per per people day8 and in china the absolute poverty line is us $ 0.55 per person per day. all are based on purchasing power parity in 20109. relative poverty views poverty as socially defined and depends on social contexts, poverty is a relative measure of income inequality. usually poverty is relatively measured as the percentage of the income earner is less than a certain proportion of average income. there are several measures of income inequality such as the gini coefficient or theil index. measures of relative poverty are used by undp, unicef, oecd and canadian poverty researchers (raphael, 2009; oecd, 2008; undp, 2008). various poverty reduction strategies are broadly categorized as whether the strategy provides more basic human needs or the strategy increases income that can be spent to buy the living needs of the poor. some strategies such as road construction can not only provide access to a variety of basic needs, such as fertilizer from urban areas, but also increase income by bringing better access to urban markets. in the case of indonesia, during the administration of president sby (2004-2013) there were three clusters of poverty 3 un declaration at world summit on social development in copenhagen 1995. 4 definition of poverty according to the world bank... retrieved 10 augustus 2016. 5 the world bank re-establishes the international poverty line to us$ 1.90 per person per day, which has considered the difference in living costs between countries (exchange rates based on purchasing power disparities). 6 the definition of poverty according tous census bureau. 2011. 7 read: world bank's $1.25/day poverty measurecountering the latest criticisms. the world bank. 2010. 8 for 2014, the indonesian government set a poverty line to rp. 312,328, per person per month equivalent to us$ 25 per person per month. 9 new progress in development-oriented poverty reduction program for rural china (1,274 yuan per year = us$ 0.55 per day). the government of china. 2011. http://econ.worldbank.org/wbsite/external/extdec/extresearch/0,,contentmdk:22510787~pagepk:64165401~pipk:64165026~thesitepk:469382,00.html http://www.gov.cn/english/official/2011-11/16/content_1994729_3.htm http://www.gov.cn/english/official/2011-11/16/content_1994729_3.htm muchdie & nurrasyidin technological progress and human development: evidence from indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 103 alleviation programs. first, the cluster of social assistance for poverty alleviation includes protection of consumption of basic commodities, health protection, education protection and protection of financial liquidity for the poor. second, the community empowerment cluster for poverty alleviation. third, the micro business empowerment cluster for alleviation (suryahadi, et.al, 2010). the relationship of poverty with human development includes three dimensions of the human development index. poverty due to low income makes the level of health low due to the inability to obtain food including drinking water, clothing and shelter including healthy sanitation. poverty also limits the ability of communities to be able to gain access to better education. income inequality is a condition where the distribution of income received by society is uneven. inequality is determined by the level of development, ethnic heterogeneity, inequality is also related to dictatorships and governments that fail to respect property rights (glaeser, 2005). poverty is very closely related to the inequality of income distribution. if the income distribution is not evenly distributed, it can be certain that it will disrupt the economy, which can even lead to increased poverty. high economic growth but not accompanied by a level of income will still leave the number and percentage of poor people who will have an impact on health, education and purchasing power. one of the most popular measures of inequality is the gini index (gini ratio), which is a measure of aggregate inequality whose values range between zero and one. the zero index value means there is no inequality (perfect equalization), while the value of one means perfect inequality. this index is purely a statistical measure for variability and normative measures to measure inequality. wodon and yitzaki (2002) revealed: .... the main advantages of the gini index, firstly, as a statistical measure for variability, the gini index can be used to calculate negative income, this is one of the traits that some inequality measures do not have. second, the gini index can also be described geometrically so that it is easier to observe and analyze, and thirdly, this index has a strong theoretical basis. as a normative index, the gini index can represent the theory of relative poverty. this index can also be derived as a measure of inequality based on the axioms of social justice. the main problem in income inequality is due to differences in productivity possessed by each individual where one individual / group has higher productivity than other individuals / groups. the uneven distribution of income triggers income inequality which is the beginning of the emergence of the problem of poverty. allowing these two problems will further aggravate the situation, and not infrequently cause negative consequences for the social conditions of the community. the inequality of income distribution and poverty is a reality that exists among the world community, both in developed and developing countries. the difference lies in the proportion of the level of inequality and the number of poverty that occurs, as well as the level of difficulty in overcoming it which is influenced by the area and the population of a country. uneven distribution of national income will not create prosperity for society in general. a distribution system that is not pro-poor will only create prosperity for certain groups, so this becomes a very important issue in addressing the problem of poverty. according to todaro and smith (2002), the effect of muchdie & nurrasyidin technological progress and human development: evidence from indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 104 income inequality on poverty is due to an increase in population. population growth tends to have a negative impact on the poor, especially for those who are very poor. most poor families have a large number of family members so that their economic conditions at the poverty line deteriorate along with deteriorating income or welfare inequality. the direct relationship between income inequality and human development has never been studied. at least, the publication has not been found. science and technology are identical and cannot be separated from human development. technological advances, technological changes, technological development or technological achievements are the whole process of invention, innovation and technology diffusion. in essence, technological advances are inventions of technologies and their commercialization through research and development, continuous technological improvements and their diffusion to industry and society. in short, technological advances are based on better and more sophisticated technology. in economics, technological progress is a positive change in the production function that changes the relationship between input and output, which is generally understood as technological improvement or technological progress (hicks, 1963). productivity is a measure of technological progress. productivity increases when fewer inputs are used in the production process (field, 2008). another indicator of technological progress is the development of new products and services needed to overcome labor shortages so labor costs are reduced. in developed countries generally productivity growth slowed in the late 1970s, but there are certain sectors that have better growth, such as in the industrial sector (bjork, 1999). muchdie (2016) found that technological progress has a positive direct impact on poverty alleviation efforts in indonesia. indirectly, technological advances also have a positive impact on poverty alleviation through economic growth and unemployment. unfortunately, there is no clear agreement about the relationship between technological progress and income inequality. there is no agreement if it is said that technological progress is the cause of income inequality. the reason, technology has made everything easier. because the technological advancement of the world becomes a small village which means there is no distance between people. everyone and income groups are able to buy technology to stay connected to each other. technology is everywhere, in the garden or in the bank. technology has created income with little investment. technology is a special blessing for humanity, which makes work easier and more efficient. conversely, some argue that technological progress is related to income inequality. indeed, technology is important for human life, but because of the differences between rich and poor, skilled and unskilled, conditions vary. further technological advancements will create income inequality. technological progress has created income inequality between sectors and between groups, also between regions. however, technology is defined as the application of knowledge, tools, machines, techniques and systems or methods to deal with problems effectively and efficiently. thus, the use of technology helps humans to achieve high efficiency in terms of speed, productivity and income. muchdie & nurrasyidin technological progress and human development: evidence from indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 105 applying path analysis method, this paper aims to analyze the direct and indirect impacts on technological advances in human development, with poverty and income inequality as a variable (moderating variables). research method the model used for analyzing the direct and indirect impacts of technological advances on human development is presented in figure 1. path analysis is used to analyze the direct and indirect effects of one variable on another. this model was developed by wright in the 1920s (wrigth, 1921; 1934). because it is widely used in more complex modeling such as in the fields of biology, psychology, sociology and econometrics (dodge, y, 2003). in this study the path model is used to answer the question, "how technological progress affects (index) human development?". the direct impact of technological progress on human development was analyzed using line-1, with path coefficient p41. the indirect impact of technological progress on human development is explored through path-2, which is hypothesized that technological progress has an indirect impact on human development, through the variable between poverty. the path coefficient on path-2 is calculated as the multiplication of the direct effect of technological progress on poverty (p31) with the direct impact of poverty on human development (p43). the indirect impact of technological progress on human development is also examined through path-3, where technological advances have an indirect impact on human development through variables of poverty and income inequality. figure 1 impact analysis of technological progress on human development model. human development r 12 p 21 r 13 p 31 r 23 p 32 r 34 p 43 p 41 r 14 r 24 p 42 technological progress poverty income inequality muchdie & nurrasyidin technological progress and human development: evidence from indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 106 the path coefficient on line-3 is calculated as a product of the multiplication of the path coefficients of the direct impact of technological progress on income inequality (p21) with the path coefficient of direct income inequality to poverty (p32) and the path coefficient of direct poverty impacts on human development (p43). the indirect impact of technological progress on human development is analyzed through path-4, where technological progress is thought to have an indirect impact on human development, through a variable between income inequality. the path coefficient on line-4 is calculated as the product of the coefficient of the direct impact of technological progress on income inequality (p21) with the path coefficient of the direct impact of income inequality on human development (p42). the path coefficient in the path analysis is calculated using the following path equations10: r12 = p21 (1) r13 = p31 + p32 r12 (2) r23 = p31 r12 + p32 (3) r14 = p41 + p42 r12 + p43 r13 (4) r24 = p41 r12 + p42 + p43 r23 (5) r34 = p41 r13 + p42 r23 + p43 (6) there are 6 unknown things with 6 equations. correlation coefficients r14, r24, r34, r13, r23, and r12 can be calculated if the technological progress data (tfp growth rate,%), income inequality (gini index), poverty (percentage of poor people,%) and available human development index. the path equation for calculating path coefficients can be completed simultaneously. data needed to test the direct impact and indirect impact of technological progress on human development, with poverty and income inequality as intermediate variables are: (1) tfp growth rate (%) as an indicator of technological progress, (2) the gini index as an indicator of income inequality , (3) the percentage of poor people (%) as indicators of poverty, and (4) the human development index as an indicator of human development. except for the tfp growth rate data, all data was obtained from the central statistics agency in various publications. sources of data on tfp were obtained from the bppt research report (agency for the assessment and application of technology) which had conducted a series of studies on technology and economic growth (prihawantoro, et. al., 2013). the data used is time series data from 2004-2013. the effect of technological progress (as measured by the growth of the total factor productivity) on human index is said to be statistically meaning that if the path coefficient, pij, is greater or equal to 0.05. conversely, the effect is statistically meaningless if the path coefficient, pij, is smaller than 0.05. this applies, both for decisions about direct influence and indirect influence. 10 source: http://faculty.cas.usf.edu/mbrannick/regression/pathan.html muchdie & nurrasyidin technological progress and human development: evidence from indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 107 result and discussion table 1 and figure 2 present data on tfp growth (%) as a measure of technological progress, the gini index as a measure of income inequality, the percentage of poor people (%) as a measure of poverty and the human development index for indonesia from 20042013. tfp growth in the indonesian economy ranges from -1.71% (2013) to 3.59% (2004). meanwhile, the gini index ranges from 0.32 (2004) to 0.41 (2011, 2012, 2013). from the data, it can be seen the tendency that income inequality continues to worsen. the percentage of poor people has a declining trend, from 16.66% in 2004, 15.97% in 2005, up again to 17.75% in 2006 and subsequently continued to fall to 11.47% in 2013. if you see the absolute number, this data may be misleading because with the population that continues to increase the number of poor people should also increase. the human development index shows a tendency to improve, 68.70 in 2004) to 73.81 in 2013. table 2 presents the correlation coefficients between each variable studied. the correlation between tfp growth and income inequality is negative, correlation coefficient, r12 = -0.27, and in the weak category. that is, an increase in tfp growth rate will reduce the level of income inequality, even though the relationship is in a weak category. while the correlation between tfp growth and poverty is also still in the weak category, but the relationship is positive. correlation coefficient, r13 = 0.30. that is, an increase in the tfp growth rate will increase the percentage of poor people. this relationship is not expected. table 1 tfp growth, gini index, percentage of poor people and human development index in indonesia 2004-2013 year tfp growth(%) (x1) gini indeks (x2) percentage of poor people (%) (x3) human development index (x4) 2004 3.59 0.32 16.66 68.70 2005 3.26 0.36 15.97 69.57 2006 1.78 0.33 17.75 70.10 2007 1.52 0.36 16.58 70.59 2008 1.94 0.35 15.42 71.17 2009 -1.57 0.37 14.15 71.76 2010 1.49 0.38 13.33 72.27 2011 2.86 0.41 12.36 72.77 2012 3.22 0.41 11.66 73.29 2013 -1.71 0.41 11.47 73.81 source: author (processed from several sources) table 2 correlation coefficient between tfp growth, gini index, percentage of poor people and human development index correlation coefficient r1 r2 r3 r4 r1 1.00 r2 -0.27 1.00 r3 0.30 -0.94 1.00 r3 -0.46 0.92 -0.92 1.00 source: data processing results, 2016 muchdie & nurrasyidin technological progress and human development: evidence from indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 108 figure 2 tfp growth, gini index, percentage of poor people and human development index in indonesia 2004-2013 technology should be able to overcome the problem of poverty. not even adding to the poor. more unpleasantly, the relationship between tfp growth and the human development index is negative and in the moderate category, with a correlation coefficient, r14 = -0.46. that is, the tfp growth rate will be related to the decline in the human development index. the correlation between income inequality and poverty in the category is very strong and is negative, with a correlation coefficient, r23 = -0.94. that is, the more unequal income of the community the lower the percentage of poor people. the analogy is that the more evenly distributed the income of the people, the poorer people are. this conclusion is quite "dangerous" because to reduce poverty, people's income must be made lame. while the relationship between income inequality and human development in the category is very strong and positive, with a correlation coefficient, r24 = 0.92. that is, income inequality has a very strong positive correlation with the human development index. the more unequal income of the community the higher the human development index. this is also "danger". should efforts to "build humanity" be achieved by increasingly making unequal income for the community?. finally, the correlation between poverty and human development is negative in the very strong category, with the correlation coefficient r34 = -0.92. the percentage of poor people is negatively correlated with human development. increasing the percentage of poor people will reduce the human development index. presumably this is in accordance with the theory considering that one of the indicators of human development is people's purchasing power. the higher the purchasing power, the higher the human development index. figure 3 presents the results of the calculation of path coefficients based on equations (1) to (6) which are based on the correlation coefficients between variables of technological progress, income inequality, poverty and human development. path coefficient on linemuchdie & nurrasyidin technological progress and human development: evidence from indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 109 1, with p41 = -0.17. that is, directly technological progress has a negative impact on human development. an increase in the tfp growth rate will reduce the human development index. this direct impact is statistically significant; means because p41> 0.05. indirectly, technological advances also negatively affect human development, through poverty variables, namely through path-2: p43 x p31. technological advances have a positive effect on the percentage of poor people (p31) and the percentage of poor people has a negative influence on human development. indirectly, technological progress has a negative effect on human development, through poverty, through path-2: p43 x p31. technological advances have a positive effect on poverty and poverty negatively affecting human development. an increase in the percentage rate of tfp indirectly has a negative effect on the human development index. the higher the percentage increase in tfp the lower the human development index. through p43 p31, an increase in tfp rate will increase the percentage of poor people, while the increase in the percentage of poor people will reduce the human development index. fortunately, this negative indirect effect is not statistically significant because path-2: p43x p31 = -0.002 <0.05. figure 3 path coefficients on each line: path-1, path-2, path-3 and path-4 indirectly, technological progress has a negative effect on human development, through variables of poverty and income inequality through path-3: p43 x p32x p21. technological progress has a negative effect on income inequality (p21), while income inequality has a negative effect on poverty (p32) and poverty alleviation has a negative effect on human development (p43). an increase in the percentage rate of tfp indirectly has a negative effect on the human development index. the higher the percentage increase in tfp the lower the human development index. through the p43 p32p21 path, the increase in the tfp rate will reduce income inequality (income is more evenly distributed), further decreasing income inequality will increase the percentage of poor people and the increase in income of the poor will reduce the human development index. fortunately, this human development p 21 = -0.27 p 31 = 0.05 p 32 = -0.93 p 43 = -0.04 p 41 = -0.17 p 42 = 0.84 technological progress income inequality poverty p 43 = -0.04 muchdie & nurrasyidin technological progress and human development: evidence from indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 110 negative indirect influence is not statistically significant because path-3: p43x p32 x p21 = 0.01 <0.05. indirectly, technological changes have a positive effect on human development, through income inequality variables; via line-4: p42 x p21. technology changes have a negative effect on income inequality, while income inequality has a negative effect on human development. an increase in the percentage rate of tfp indirectly has a negative effect on the human development index. the higher the percentage increase in tfp the lower the human development index. through the p43 p32p21 line, the increase in the tfp rate will reduce income inequality (income is more evenly distributed), further decreasing income inequality increases the human development index. this negative indirect effect is statistically significant because path-4: p42 x p21 = -0.22> 0.05. conclusion from the results of the analysis it can be concluded that directly and indirectly, technological progress has a negative effect on human development. the higher the tfp rate the smaller the human development index. directly, through path-1 with p41 path coefficients, technological progress has a negative effect on human development. the higher the tfp rate the smaller the human development index. indirectly, technological progress has a negative effect on human development in all paths that are traversed. through path-2 (p43-p31), technological progress has a negative effect on human development, through poverty variables. through path-3 (p43-p32-p21), technological progress has a negative effect on human development, through variables of poverty and income inequality. through path-4 (p42-p21), technological progress has a negative effect on human development, through income inequality variables. references anonymous. 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(1934). the method of path coefficients. annals of mathematical statistics, 5(3), 161215. https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177732676 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socec.2005.11.048 https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.832653 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-00189-7 https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264176171-en https://doi.org/10.1214/aoms/1177732676 image (2).jpg image (3).jpg image (4).jpg image (5).jpg image (6).jpg image (7).jpg image (8).jpg image (9).jpg image (10).jpg image (11).jpg image (12).jpg image (13).jpg image (14).jpg image (15).jpg image (16).jpg microsoft word 06-arif_rev1 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015, hlm.63-72 faktor-faktor makroekonomi yang mempengaruhi permintaan uang di indonesia arif widodo 1 institute of public policy and economic studies jalan kenari 13 sidoarum iii yogyakarta, indonesia e-mail korespondensi: rifdo_arif97@yahoo.com naskah diterima: agustus 2014; disetujui: maret 2015 abstract: money demand has an important role for monetary policy authorities in determining appropriate policies to maintain economic stability. analysis of the demand for money is an economic analysis of the quantities required to support the measures taken by the government in the monetary sector. this research aims to know the determinants of money demand function in indonesia period 1990.1-2014.1. the analysis methode used in this research is error correction model (ecm). the results showed that the variable gross domestic product (gdp) is not significantly influences money demand. exchange rate (exchange), and the price level positively and significantly affect the demand for money (m1) in the short term. while the rate of 3-month deposit rate negatively and significantly influences the money demand (m1). the results of this study also showed that in the long term demand for money (m1) in indonesia positively and significantly influenced by variables gross domestic product (gdp) and the price level. while the exchange rate and variable interest rates have negative effect to money demand. keywords: money demand; m1; error correction model jel classification: o11, o19, o23 abstrak: permintaan uang mempunyai peranan yang penting bagi otoritas kebijakan moneter dalam menentukan kebijakan yang tepat untuk menjaga stabilitas ekonomi. analisis permintaan uang merupakan suatu analisis besaran-besaran ekonomi yang dibutuhkan untuk mendukung suatu kebijakan yang diambil oleh pemerintah di bidang moneter. penelitian ini bertujuan untuk megetahui determinan dari fungsi permintaan uang di indonesia periode 1990.1-2014.1. alat analisis yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah error correction model (ecm). hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa variabel produk domestik bruto (pdb) tidak signifikan mempengaruhi permintaan uang. variabel nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dollar as (kurs), dan tingkat harga berpengaruh positif dan signifikan mempengaruhi permintaan uang (m1) dalam jangka pendek. sedangkan tingkat suku bunga deposito 3 bulan berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap permintaan uang. (m1). hasil penelitian ini juga menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka panjang permintaan uang (m1) di indonesia dipengaruhi secara positif dan signifikan oleh variabel produk domestik bruto (pdb) dan tingkat harga. sedangkan varibel kurs dan suku bunga berpengaruh negatif. kata kunci: permintaan uang; m1; error correction model klasifikasi jel: o11, o19, o23 pendahuluan permintaan uang mempunyai peranan yang sangat penting bagi otoritas kebijakan moneter dalam menentukan kebijakan yang tepat untuk menjaga stabilitas ekonomi. analisispermintaan uang merupakan suatu analisis besaran-besaran ekonomi yang dibutuhkan untuk mendukung suatu kebijakan yang diambil oleh pemerintah di bidang moneter. pemerintah, dalam hal ini adalah bank indonesia dapat menempuh suatu kebijakan moneter yang bertujuan untuk men jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015: 63-72 64 capai stabilitas moneter (prawoto, 2010). mengingat pentingnya kestabilan permintaan uang, maka banyak literatur yang membahas aspek teoritis maupun empiris mengenai permintaan uang di berbagai negara, baik negara maju maupun negara berkembang, telah menjadi pekerjaan hampir semua ekonom untuk mampu memprediksi perekonomian, baik dalam jangka pendek maupun dalam jangka panjang. menurut friedman (1980), dalam kebijakan moneter dapat memberikan kontribusi dalam menentukan kestabilan ekonomi dengan kontrol besaran-besaran ekonomi yang kuat (prawoto, 2010). sehingga, studi empiris dan pengembangan model mengenai permintaan uang menjadi penting dilakukan baik di negara maju maupun berkembang untuk menjaga kestabilan moneter dan kestabilan ekonomi pada umumnya. dengan melihat keadaan ekonomi negara berkembang yang rentan akan ketidakstabilan, maka studi untuk memperkirakan kondisi ekonomi dan moneter di negara berkembang menjadi hal yang urgent untuk dilakukan, bahkan hal itu juga dilakukan oleh negara maju. seperti hwang (2002) yang melakukan penelitian tentang permintaan uang di korea, menemukan bahwa dalam keseimbangan jangka panjang pendapatan riil masyarakat dan tingkat bunga tetap berpengaruh terhadap m2, sedangkan untuk m1 variabel tersebut tidak terlalu berpengaruh. kesimpulan yang penting dari penelitian-penelitian tersebut adalah bahwa m2 sangat berkaitan dengan pendapatan dan tingat bunga dan keterkaitan ini menjadi acuan dalam kestabilan permintaan uang (bahmani-oskooe dan wang, 2007). penelitian prawoto (2000) dengan variabel berupa pendapatan, tingkat bunga dan perubahan harga memberikan hasil bahwa nilai koefisien penyesuaian (β) pada semua model analisis menunjukkan bahwa β untuk m1 lebih besar dari β untuk m2 kemudian baru β untuk qm. hal ini berarti masyarakat indonesia menyesuaikan jumlah uang yang mereka pegang dalam bentuk uang sempit lebih cepat dibandingkan dengan dalam bentuk uang luas kemudian baru uang kuasi. sedangkan hasil estimasi parameter-parameter jangka panjang ternyata lebih besar dibandingkan dengan parameter-parameter jangka pendek.hal ini menunjukkan bahwa perilaku permintaan uang dalam jangka pendek terutama untuk tujuan transaksi, tetapi dalam jangka panjang mendorong masyarakat untuk memegang berbagai pasiva yang ditawarkan oleh lembaga keuangan bank. beberapa penelitian juga banyak dilakukan di indonesia, oleh setiadi (2013) yang meneliti tentang faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi permintaan uang tahun 1999; q1 – 2010; q4, yang menemukan bahwa inflasi dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap permintaan uang, begitu juga pengaruh pdb, sedangkan suku bunga dalam jangka panjang memiliki hubungan negatif dan signifikan terhadap permintaan uang. begitu juga studi yang dilakukan oleh prawoto (2010) mengenai permintaan uang di indonesia, yang menghasilkan kesimpulan bahwa pendapatan masyarakat memberikan pengaruh terhadap permintaan uang di indonesia. selain penelitian di indonesia, terdapat pula beberapa penelitian yang dilakuakan di beberapa negara maju menunjukkan hasil yang sama, seperti dilakukan oleh dobnik (2011) di 11 negara oecd.selain beberapa variabel makroekonomi yang telah disebutkan sebelumnya, terdapat variabel nilai tukar rupiah yang juga diduga mempengaruhi permintaan uang, mengingat sejak 14 agustus 1997 indonesia menerapkan nilai tukar mengambang bebas (free floating exchange rate) yang artinya nilai tukar rupiah sepenuhnya ditentukan oleh interaksi permintaan dan penawaran valas di pasar valas. perubahan yang terjadi pada nilai tukar rupiah, baik ketika rupiah terapresiasi maupun terdepresasi ternayata diikuti juga oleh adanya perubahan dalam permintaan uang. dengan demikian, fenomena moneter permintaan uang menarik untuk diteliti. identifikasi besaran-besaran ekonomi yang mempengaruhi permintaan uang melalui berbagai kajian teori, studi empiris dan fenomena data yang telah dilakukan sebelumnya menunjukkan pentingnya pengembangkan penelitian permintaan uang di indonesia. dengan mengembangkan penelitian-penelitian yang telah lalu, penulis menyimpulkan bahwa peranan dan faktorfaktor makroekonomi yang mempengaruhi permintaan uang masih penting untuk membangun keadaan yang perekonomian yang kondusif. faktor-faktor makroekonomi ... arif widodo, agus tri basuki) 65 metode penelitian jenis dan sumber data data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data sekunder runtut waktu dari periode 1990: q1 sampai periode 2014: q1. alasan menjadikan tahun 1990: q1 sebagai tahun awal penelitian, dikarenakan pada data runtut waktu mensyaratkan jumlah minimal 30 data. sedangkan periode 2014: q1 merupakan tahun yang terakhir dengan data kuartalan yang ada. data diambil dari publikasi bank indonesia dan badan pusat statistik (bps). analisis data langkah dalam merumuskan model ecm menurut domowitz dan elbadawiadalah sebagai berikut (dalam widarjono, 2013): 1) melakukan spesifikasi hubungan yang diharapkan dalam model yang diteliti. mt = 0 + 1yt + 2inft + 3kurst + 4irt 1) keterangan: mt adalah permintaan uang per tahun (milyar rupiah) pada periode t., yt adalah produk domestik bruto per kapita periode t, inft adalah variabel tingkat inflasi pada periode t., kurst adalah nilai tukar rupiah terhadap us dolar periode t., irt adalah tingkat suku bunga deposito pada periode t., 0 12 3 4 adalah koefisien jangka pendek. 2) proses pembentukan variabel penyesuaian ketidakseimbangan menurut domowitz dan elbadawi yang didasarkan pada fungsi biaya kuadrat tunggal dapat dirumuskan sebagai berikut: ct= b0 [mt – m*t ]2+ b1 {( mt – mt-1)– ft (zt– zt-1)}2 2) persamaan (2) merupakan fungsi biaya kuadrat tunggal. komponen pertama dari persamaan tersebut menggambarkan biaya ketidakseimbangan dan komponen kedua merupakan biaya penyesuaian. mt merupakan jumlah m aktual pada periode t, zt merupakan vektor variabel yang mempengaruhi m di mana dalam hal ini dipengaruhi oleh variabel independen x (y, inf, kurs dan ir), b0 dan b1 adalah vektor baris yang memberi bobot kepada masingmasing biaya serta ft merupakan sebuah vektor baris yang memberi bobot kepada elemen zt dan zt-1. 3) meminimalisasi fungsi biaya pada persamaan (2) terhadap variabel m dan menyamakan dengan nol akan menghasilkan persamaan sebagai berikut: b0 [mt– m*t] + b1 [(mt– mt-1) – ft (zt – zt-1)] = 0 atau dapat ditulis menjadi persamaan sebagai berikut: (b0 + b1)mt = b0m*t + b1mt-1 + b1ft(zt – zt-1) 3) vektor z terdiri dari variabel x (y, inf, kurs dan ir) sehingga persamaan (3) tersebut dapat dinyatakan sebagai berikut: (b0 + b1)mt = b0 m*t + b1mt-1 + b1ft(zt – zt-1) 4) persamaan (4) dapat dinyatakan dalam persamaan sebagai berikut: mt = bm*t + (1 – b)mt-1 + (1 – b) ft (zt – zt-1) 5) di mana b= b0/(b0 + b1); ft terdiri dari f1 = fy, f2 = fkurs, f3 = finf, f4 = fir 4) selanjutnya, mensubstitusikan persamaan (1) ke dalam persamaan (5) sehingga diperoleh persamaan sebagai berikut: lnmt = b(0 + 1yt + 2inft + 3kurst + 4irt) + (1-b) mt-1+ (1-b) ft (zt – zt-1) 6) persamaan (6) merupakan analisis jangka pendek permintaan uang meskipun hasil jangka pendek mampu memberikan prediksi pada jangka panjang. namun, permsalahan utama muncul ketika model persamaan yang digunakan tidak stasioner, karena ketika model tidak stasioner maka tidak bisa diestimasi dengan jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015: 63-72 66 menggunakan ols (ordinary least square) serta akan menghasilkan regresi lancung (spurious regression). sebagai solusi, digunakan kemungkinan perubahan (δ) pada setiap variabel, sehingga: δlnmdt = β0 + ∑ δlnyt + ∑ δinft + ∑ δlnkurst+∑ δirt + β5δ lnyt-i + β6δinft-i + β7δlnkurst-i + β8δirt-i+ ectt-i+ t 7) ect = δlnyt-1 + δinft-1 +δlnkurst-1 + δirt-1 –δlnmdt-1 8) hasil dan pembahasan uji akar unit uji akar unit dilakukan satu persatu atau setiap variabel yang akan dianalisis baik variabel dependent maupun independent. hasil analisis memberikan hasil uji akar unit pada tingkat level, dapat dilihat pada tabel 1. table 1 menunjukkan hasil dari uji akar unit dengan menggunakan uji augmented dickey fuller (adf) menunjukkan bahwa hanya tiga variable yang stasioner pada tingkat level. masing-masing variabel tersebut adalah: pertama, variabel pdb dengan nilai adf t-statistik 3,180643 dengan tingkat signifikasi 5 persen; kedua, variabel ir (tingkat suku bunga) dengan nilai adf t-statistik -3,101861 dengan tingkat signifikasi 5 persen; dan ketiga, variabel inf (inflasi) dengan nilai adf t-statistik -5,216987 dengan signifikasi 1 persen. sedangkan variabel yang lainnya yaitu m1 dan kurs rupaih terhadap us dolar tidak stasioner pada tingkat level. uji derajat integrasi karena pada uji akar-akar (unit root test) tingkat level data yang diamati belum stasioner maka perlu dilanjutkan dengan pengujian uji derajat integrasi. pengujian ini dimaksudkan untuk mengetahui derajat (differention order) keberapa data yang diamati stasioner. karena uji derajat integrasi merupakan kelanjutan dari uji akarakar (unit root test) maka langkahnya adalah identik dengan uji akar-akar unit hanya perbedaan pada pembedanya (differencing) saja dan asumsi hipotesis yang digunakan adalah sama. tabel 2 menunjukkan hasil uji akar unit pada tingkat 1st difference dengan menggunakan uji adf, yang menunjukkan bahwa lima variabel sudah stasioner pada tingkat first difference, yaitu variabel m1 (jumlah uang beredar), pdb (produk domestik bruto), kurs (nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar as), ir (tingkat suku bunga) dan inf (inflasi). oleh karena itu, menurut uji adf, dapat dikatakan semua data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini terintegrasi pada derajat pertama (first differen uji kointegrasi hasil pengolahan data diperoleh hasil uji kointegrasi, dapat dilihat pada tabel 3. tabel 3 merupakan hasil estimasi dengan augmented dickey-fuller (adf) menunjukkan adf t-statistik = -4,077420 < nilai kritis mackinnon = -3,500669 yang berada pada nilai kritis 1%, menandakan bahwa variabel ect sudah stasioner pada tingkat level. berdasarkan kedua pengujian kointegrasi di atas, dapat disimpulkan ada bahwa variabel ect untuk data level dan panjang lag 1 tidak meng andung akar unit, dengan kata lain variabel ect sudah stasioner, sehingga disimpulkan bahwa terjadi kointegrasi di antara semua variabel yang disertakan dalam model penelitian. hal ini mempunyai tabel 1. hasil augmented dickey fuller pada tingkat level dengan intercept variabel adf t-statistik nilai kritis mackinnon keterangan 1 % 5 % 10 % m1 -0,874174 -3,500669 -2,892200 -2,583192 nonstasioner pdb -3,180643 -3,500669 -2,892200 -2,583192 stasioner kurs -1,587410 -3,500669 -2,892200 -2,583192 nonstasioner ir -3,101861 -3,500669 -2,892200 -2,583192 stasioner inf -5,216987 -3,500669 -2,892200 -2,583192 stasioner faktor-faktor makroekonomi ... arif widodo, agus tri basuki) 67 makna bahwa dalam jangka panjang akan terjadi keseimbangan atau kestabilan antarvariabel yang diamati. hasil estimasi ecm berdasarkan hasil estimasi model permintaan uang dengan ecm, diperoleh hasil sebagaimana tampak dalam tabel 4. berdasarkan hasil perhitungan uji lm dalam jangka pendek diketahui nilai akaike terkecil pada lag pertama diperoleh nilai obs*rsquared sebesar 1,46. dalam hal ini ρvalue obs*r-square 0,234 lebih besar dari α = 10 persen maka disimpulkan tidak terdapat autokorelasi dalam model ecm. hasil uji normalitas, dapat diketahui bahwa ρ-value sebesar 0,269 > α = 10 persen. maka, dapat disimpulkan bahwa data yang digunakan dalam model ecm berdistribusi normal. uji linieritas melalui uji ramsey reset, diperoleh prob f-statistic sebe-sar 0,4607 > 0,10 (10 persen), maka dapat disimpulkan bahwa model yang digunakan adalah tepat. selanjutnya, hasil uji white diperoleh bahwa nilai prob. obs* r-squared atau hitung adalah 0,1852 lebih besar dari α = 10 persen. maka dapat disimpulkan bahwa dalam model tidak terdapat masalah heteroskedastisitas dalam model ecm. sedangkan uji multikolinearitas menunjukkan r21, (hasil dari regresi utama) sebesar 0,997 lebih besar dari r22 r23 r24 r25 r26 r27 r28 r29 r210 (hasil dari regresi parsial). artinya, hasil r2 regresi variabel dependent > dari r2 regresi antar variabel independent. dengan demikian, maka dalam model tidak terdapat multikolinearitas. adapun persamaan yang diperoleh dari hasil estimasi ecm adalah: tabel 4. hasil estimasi model permintaan uang ecm domowitz dan elbadawi variabel koefisien t-statistik konstanta -2,622033 -15,73282*** δpdb 0,170356 1,140057 δkurs 0,174270 3,080725*** δir -0,009838 -2,802236*** δinf 0,002824 2,255573** δpdb (-1) 1,283689 8,750297*** δkurs (-1) -0,553857 -8,982865*** δir (-1) -0,015735 -5,141428*** δinf (-1) 0,007647 7,560350*** ect (-1) 0,953302 38,74109*** r2 0,997589 adjusted r2 0,997337 s.e. of regression 0,058763 akaike info criterion -2,732259 schwarz criterion -2,465140 fstatistik 3953,538*** d-w statistik 1,751405 n 96 keterangan: ***signifikan pada level 1%, **signifikan pada level 5%, *signifikan pada level 10% tabel 3. hasil augmented dickey fuller pada persamaan residual pada tingkat level variabel adf t-statistik nilai kritis mackinnon keterangan 1 % 5 % 10 % ect -4,077420 -3,500669 -2,892200 -2,583192 terkointegrasi jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015: 63-72 68 δlnmt = -2,622033 + 0,170356 δlnpdbt + 0,174270 δlnkurst – 0,009838 δirt + 0,002824 δinft + 1,283689 δlnpdb(-1) – 0,553857 δlnkurs(-1) – 0,015735 δir(-1) + 0,007647 δinf(-1) + 0,953302 ect(-1) berdasarkan hasil estimasi model dinamis ecm di atas, maka dapat dilihat pada variabel error correction term (ect)-nya signifikan pada tingkat signifikasi 1 persen dan mempunyai tanda positif, maka spesifikasi model sudah valid (sahih). berdasarkan hasil regresi variabel error correction term (ect) dapat diketahui besarnya koefisien ect sebesar 0,953302 dengan taraf signifikasi sebesar 0,000 artinya bahwa variabel tersebut signifikan pada taraf 1 persen dan perbedaan antara nilai aktual permintaan uang dengan keseimbangannya sebesar 0,953302, akan disesuaikan dalam waktu satu semester. dengan demikian, spesifikasi model yang dipakai dalam penelitian ini adalah tepat dan mampu menjelaskan hubungan jangka pendek serta perlu dikoreksi setiap semesternya sebesar 0,953302 untuk mencapai keseimbangan jangka panjang. hasil pengujian terhadap model dinamis permintaan uang di indonesia dari periode 1990.1 sampai dengan periode 2014.1 dapat diinterpretasikan berdasarkan hasil estimasi pada tabel 4 adalah sebagai berikut: 1) pengaruh produk domestik bruto (pdb) terhadap permintaan uang. nilai koefisien pdb (δpdb) dalam jangka pendek sebesar 0,170356, namun tidak signifikan pada level 10 persen, menunjukkan bahwa pendapatan (pdb) dalam jangka pendek tidak signifikan dalam mempengaruhi permintaan uang di indonesia. hal ini sesuai dengan teori baumol bahwa orang menerima pendapatan sejumlah tertentu secara reguler setiap waktu (misalnya setiap awal bulan) serta selalu membelanjakan atau menggunakan penghasilan tersebut untuk tujuan transaksi sejumlah tertentu (tetap) setiap harinya. dengan kata lain, kebutuhan dana (uang tunai) per satuan waktu adalah konstan. hal ini sesuai dengan penelitian yang dilakukan oleh hayati (2006) dan setiadi (2013), dan anwar dan asghar (2012) di pakistan. nilai koefisien pdb dalam jangka panjang sebesar 1,283689 dengan tingkat signifikasi 1 persen, menunjukkan apabila terjadi peningkatan ada pdb (δpdb) sebesar 1 persen maka permintaan uang akan mengalami peningkatan sebesar 1,283689 persen dengan asumsi nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar as, tingkat suku bunga deposito dan tingkat inflasi tidak mengalami perubahan, atau cateris paribus. koefisien pdb bernilai positif, maka pdb mempunyai hubungan positif terhadap permintaan uang dalam jangka panjang. hal ini menandakan bahwa uji tanda sesuai dengan hipotesis yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini. artinya, semakin tinggi tingkat pendapatan masyarakat, maka permintaan uang akan meningkat karena dengan peningkatan pendapatan maka individu akan cenderung melakukan transaksi yang lebih besar dan hal ini menuntut individu untuk memegang uang lebih banyak. hasil ini sesuai dengan teori yang dikemukakan kaum klasik (teori kuantitas uang), bahwa permintaan uang dipengaruhi secara positif oleh pendapatan. salah satu tokohnya adalah fisher, yang mengatakan bahwa permintaan uang merupakan kepentingan yang sangat likuid untuk memenuhi motif transaksi (insukindro, 1997). karena itu, pendapatan merupakan faktor yang berpengaruh dalam permintaan uang untuk motif transaksi. selain teori klasik, hasil tersebut juga sesuai dengan teori yang dikemukakan oleh keynes tentang motif memegang uang yaitu motif transaksi dan berjaga-jaga yang ditentukan oleh tingkat pendapatan, pada saat pendapatan tinggi lebih banyak uang yang diminta untuk tujuan transaksi dan berjaga-jaga, sehingga pada saat pendapatan naik akan menyebabkan peningkatan permintaan uang. hasil penelitian ini yang menunjukkan bahwa pendapatan nasional (pdb) berpengaruh positif terhadap permintaan uang dalam jangka panjang, selaras dengan beberapa penelitian terdahulu, seperti yang dilakukan oleh sidiq (2005), opolot (2007) di uganda, prawoto (2010), hayati (2010), dobnik (2011) di negara oecd, azim et.al (2010) di pakistan, bashier dan dahlan (2011) di yordania, setiadi (2013), dan dharmadasa dan nakanishi (2013) di sri langka. faktor-faktor makroekonomi ... arif widodo, agus tri basuki) 69 2) pengaruh nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar as terhadap permintaan uang. nilai koefisien kurs (δkurs) dalam jangka pendek sebesar 0,174270 dengan tingkat signifikasi 1 persen, menunjukkan apabila terjadi peningkatan kurs (δkurs) sebesar 1 persen, maka permintaan uang akan mengalami peningkatan sebesar 0,174270 persen, dengan asumsi produk domestik bruto (pdb), tingkat suku bunga deposito dan tingkat inflasi tidak mengalami perubahan, atau cateris paribus. koefisien kurs bernilai positif, maka kurs mempunyai hubungan positif terhadap permintaan uang. hal ini berarti bahwa uji tanda sesuai dengan hipotesis yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini. artinya bahwa apabila nilai tukar rupiah —secara nominal— mengalami kenaikan (terdepresiasi) terhadap dollar as, maka akan berpengaruh pada peningkatanharga barang-barang impor, mengingat indonesia masih sangat tergantung dengan barang-barang impor, ketika rupiah tertekan (terdepresiasi) akan sangat memberikan pengaruh terhadap harga barang impor. sedangkan dengan naiknya harga barang impor menyebabkan permintaan uang akan meningkat untuk melakukan transaksi impor transaksi tersebut. hasil penelitian ini yang menunjukkan bahwa nilai tukar (kurs) berpengaruh positif terhadap permintaan uang dalam jangka pendek, selaras dengan beberapa penelitian terdahulu, seperti yang dilakukan dharmadasa dan nakanishi (2013) di sri langka, lungu et.al (2012) di malawi, dan iyoboyi dan pedro (2013) di nigeria. nilai koefisien kurs (δkurs) dalam jangka panjang sebesar -0,553857 dengan tingkat signifikansi 1 persen, menunjukkan apabila terjadi peningkatan kurs (δkurs) sebesar 1 persen maka permintaan uang akan mengalami penurunan sebesar 0,553857 persen, dengan asumsi produk domestik bruto (pdb), tingkat suku bunga deposito dan tingkat inflasi tidak mengalami perubahan, atau cateris paribus. koefisien kurs bernilai negatif, maka kurs mempunyai hubungan negatif terhadap permintaan uang dalam jangka panjang. hubungan kurs yang negatif terhadap permintaan uang dalam jangka panjang di indonesia bisa terjadi, ketika nilai tukar mata uang rupiah terhadap dolar as terdepresiasi (tertekan), masyarakat akan lebih memilih untuk memegang mata uang dolar as. sehingga masyarakat akan menukarkan rupiah yang mereka punya dengan dollar, karena memegang dollar akan lebih menguntungkan. dengan demikian, ketika terjadi peningkatan nilai tukar rupiah (depresiasi rupiah) dalam jangka panjang, akan mengurangi permintaan akan uang. hal ini sesuai dengan studi yang dilakukan ozturk (2008), azim et.al (2010) di pakistan, dritsakis (2011) di hungaria, dan bashier dan dahlan (2011) di yordania. 3) pengaruh tingkat bunga deposito terhadap permintaan uang. nilai koefisien tingkat suku bunga deposito (δir) dalam jangka pendek sebesar -0,009838 dengan tingkat signifikasi 1 persen, menunjukkan apabila terjadi peningkatan suku bunga deposito (δir) sebesar 1 persen, maka permintaan uang akan mengalami penurunan sebesar 0,009838 persen, dengan asumsi produk domestik bruto, nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar as dan tingkat inflasi tidak mengalami perubahan, atau cateris paribus. koefisien suku bunga (ir) bernilai negatif, maka tingkat suku bunga deposito mempunyai hubungan negatif terhadap permintaan uang dalam jangka pendek. artinya setiap ada peningkatan suku bunga deposito, maka individu akan lebih tertarik untuk menyimpan uangnya di bank dibandingkan dengan memegang uangnya dalam bentuk kas karena dalam hal ini uang kas memiliki opportunity cost yang lebih tinggi dibanding dengan menyimpan uang di bank. nilai koefisien tingkat suku bunga (ir) dalam jangka panjang sebesar -0,015735 dengan tingkat signifikasi 1 persen menunjukkan apabila terjadi peningkatan terhadap suku bunga (ir) sebesar 1 persen maka permintaan uang akan mengalami penurunan sebesar 0,015735 persen dengan asumsi produk domestik bruto (pdb), nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar as dan tingkat inflasi tidak mengalami perubahan, atau cateris paribus. koefisien suku bunga (ir) bernilai negatif, maka ir mempunyai hubungan negatif dengan permintaan uang dalam jangka panjang. artinya, baik dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang, tingkat suku bunga mempunyai pengaruh negatif terhadap permintaan uang. hal ini sesuai dengan jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015: 63-72 70 teori cambridge yang mengatakan, apabila tingkat bunga naik ada kecenderungan masyarakat akan mengurangi uang yang ingin mereka pegang, meskipun volume transaksi yang mereka rencanakan tetap. karena uang kas memiliki opportunity cost of holding money, maka ketika suku bunga mengalami kenaikan, masyarakat cenderung akan menyimpan uangnya di bank sebab lebih menguntungkan daripada memegang uang kas. hal ini juga selaras dengan studi empiris tentang pengaruh suku bunga terhadap permintaan uang, seperti penelitian achasani (2010) mengenai permintaan uang di indonesia. penelitian ini menemukan bahwa dalam suku bunga mempunyai pengaruh negatif terhadap permintaan uang. selain itu, beberapa penelitian yang selaras dengan teori keynes dilakukan oleh prawoto(2010) yang juga menunjukkan kesimpulan yang sama; bashier dan dahlan (2011) di yordania, baye (2011) di kamerun, gaurisankar dan kwie-jurgens (2012) di suriname; sarwar et.al (2013) di pakistan; dan dharmadasa et. al (2013) di sri langka. 4) pengaruh tingkat inflasi terhadap permintaan uang nilai koefisien inflasi (δinf) dalam jangka pendek sebesar 0,002824 dengan tingkat signifikansi 1 persen, menunjukkan apabila terjadi peningkatan inflasi (δinf) sebesar 1 persen maka permintaan uang akan mengalami peningkatan sebesar 0,002824 dengan asumsi produk domestik bruto (pdb), nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar as dan tingkat suku bunga deposito tidak mengalami perubahan, atau cateris paribus. koefisien inflasi bernilai positif, maka inflasi mempunyai hubungan positif terhadap permintaan uang dalam jangka pendek. hal ini berarti uji tanda sesuai dengan hipotesis yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini. artinya, ketika inflasi mengalami kenaikan akan mempengaruhi kenaikan permintaan uang. hal ini sesuai dengan teori yang dikemukakan oleh irving fisher, di mana mv = pt, jika v dan t dianggap konstan maka kenaikan p (tingkat harga/ inflasi) akan menyebabkan kenaikan m (permintaan uang). nilai koefisien inflasi (δinf) dalam jangka panjang sebesar 0,007647 dengan tingkat signifikasi 1 persen, menunjukkan apabila terjadi peningkatan inflasi (δinf) sebesar 1 persen maka permintaan uang akan mengalami peningkatan sebesar 0,007647 dengan asumsi produk domestik bruto (pdb), nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dollar as dan tingkat suku bunga deposito tidak mengalami perubahan, atau cateris paribus. koefisien inflasi bernilai positif, maka inflasi mempunyai hubungan positif terhadap permintaan uang dalam jangka pendek. hal ini berarti uji tanda sesuai dengan hipotesis yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini. artinya, bahwa kenaikan inflasi mempengaruhi kenaikan permintaan uang dalam jangka panjang. indonesia pernah mempunyai pengalaman krisis ekonomi, pada saat krisis, terjadi peningkatan jumlah uang yang sangat pesat. beberapa studi empiris yang juga mempunyai kesimpulan yang sama dengan penelitian ini, antara lain: prawoto (2010), aliasuddin (2012) dan setiadi (2013) yang menemukan bahwa inflasi (tingkat harga) secara positif mempengaruhi permintaan uang di indonesia. selain indonesia, beberapa penelitian yang menghasilkan kesimpulan adanya pengaruh tingkat harga terhadap permintaan uang antara lain oleh azim et.al (2010) dan anwar dan asghar (2012) di pakistan, baye (2011) di kamerun, iyoboyi dan pedro (2013) di nigeria, kanitpong (2013) di thailand dan lai (2013) di vietnam. koefisien determinasi ditunjukkan dengan nilai r-square sebesar 0.997, artinya bahwa 99,7 persen model permintaan uang dapat dijelaskan oleh variabel perubahan produk domestik bruto (pdb), nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar as (kurs), tingkat suku bunga deposito (ir) dan tingkat inflasi (inf). sedangkan sisanya sebesar 0,3 persen dijelaskan oleh variabel lain di luar model. nilai f-statistik sebesar 3953,5 dengan nilai probabilitas sebesar 0,000. nilai ini lebih kecil dari taraf nyata 1 persen sehingga dapat disimpulkan bahwa secara bersama-sama terdapat pengaruh yang signifikan antara variabel independent secara bersama-sama, yang terdiri dari produk domestik bruto (pdb), nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar as (kurs), tingkat suku bunga deposito (ir) dan tingkat inflasi (inf) terhadap variabel dependent yaitu permintaan uang (mt). faktor-faktor makroekonomi ... arif widodo, agus tri basuki) 71 simpulan hasil analisis pengaruh produk domestik bruto terhadap permintaan uang dengan model error correction model baik jangka pendek tidak berpengaruh terhadap permintaan uang. hal ini disebabkan karena uang yang digunakan dalam rangka penyimpan kekayaan (store of value), sedangkan dalam jangka panjang, menunjukkan bahwa produk domestik bruto berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap permintaan uang. hasil ini sesuai dengan teori yang dikemukakan kaum klasik (teori kuantitas uang), bahwa permintaan uang dipengaruhi secara positif oleh pendapatan. salah satu tokohnya adalah fisher, yang mengatakan bahwa permintaan uang merupakan kepentingan yang sangat likuid untuk memenuhi motif transaksi. pengaruh kurs terhadap permintaan uang berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap permintaan dalam jangka pendek. sementara itu, dalam jangka panjang variabel kurs mempunyai pengaruh yang negatif dan siginifikan terhadap permintaan uang. hubungan kurs yang negatif terhadap permintaan uang dalam jangka panjang di indonesia bisa terjadi, ketika nilai tukar mata uang rupiah terhadap dolar as terdepresiasi (tertekan), masyarakat akan lebih memilih untuk memegang mata uang dolar as. tingkat suku bunga deposito berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap permintaan uang. hal ini sesuai dengan teori cambridge yang mengatakan, apabila tingkat bunga naik ada kecenderungan masyarakat akan mengurangi uang kas karena memiliki opportunity cost of holding money, maka ketika suku bunga mengalami kenaikan, masyarakat cenderung akan menyimpan uangnya di bank sebab lebih menguntungkan daripada memegang uang kas. inflasi berpengaruh terhadap permintaan uang dengan model error correction model baik dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang. kenaikan harga barang-barang (inflasi) menyebabkan nilai riil uang turun, yang berarti bahwa untuk membiayai transaksi diperlukan uang dalam jumlah yang lebih banyak, karena itu permintaan uang naik. daftar pustaka aliasuddin. (2012). pengujian elastisitas harga pada permintaan uang di indonesia. majalah ekonomi, tahun xxii, no. 2, agustus 2012, p. 148-156. anwar, s dan asghar, n. (2012). is demand for money stable in pakistan?. pakistan economic and social review, volume 50, no. 1 (summer 2012), p. 1-22. azim, p., et. al. (2010). demand for money in pakistan: an ardle approach. global journal of management and business research, vol. 10 issue 9 (ver 1.0) december, p. 7680. bahmani-oskooee, m dan wang, y. (2007). how stable is the demand for money in china?. journal of economic development, volume 32, no. 1, june 2007, p. 21-33. bashier, a dan dahlan, a. (2011). the money demand function for jordan: an empirical investigation. international journal of business and social science, vol. 2 no.5 (special issuemarch), p. 77-86. baye, f. m. (2011). the role of bilateral real exchange rates in demand for real money balances in cameroon. modern economy, 2011, 2, p. 287-300. dharmadasa, c dan nakanishi, m. (2013). demand for money in sri langka: ardl approach to co-integration. 3rd international conference on humanities, geography and economics (ichge), january 4-5, 2013 bali, p. 143-147. dobnik, f. (2011). long-run money demand in oecd countries: cross –member cointegration. ruhr economic papers #237, germany. dritsakis, n. (2011). demand for money in hungary: an ardl approach. review of economics & finance, 7 juni 2011. gaurisankar, sdan kwie-jurgens, n o. (2012). the money demand function in suriname. presented at the 44th annual monetary studies conference, november 7-9, 2012. hayati, b. (2006). analisis stabilitas permintaan uang dan stabilitas harga di indonesia tahun 1989-2002. tesis. tidak dipublikasikan. semarang: universitas diponegoro. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015: 63-72 72 hayati, i. (2010). analisis permintaan dan penawaran uang di indonesia. qe journal, vol. 02 – no. 01, p. 8-18. hwang, j-k. (2002). the demand for money in korea: evidence from the cointegration test. iaer: august 2002, vol. 8, no. 3, p. 188-195. insukindro. (1997). ekonomi uang dan bank. yogyakarta: bpfe ugm. iyoboyi, martins dan pedro, lm. (2013). the demand for money in nigeria: evidence from bounds testing approach. business and economics journal, vol. 2013: bej-76. kanitpong, t dan promkutkeo, s. (2013). model of money demand determination: evidence from thailand. international journal of business and economics perspectives, vol. 8, number 1, spring 2013, p. 42-51. lai, n-a. (2013). stability of money demand in vietnam: application of the bounds testing approach on 1999-2011.paper based on author’s ph.d thesis.universite paris. lungu, et. al. (2012). money demand function for malawi—implications for monetary policy conduct. bank and bank systems, vol. 7, issue 1, 2012, p. 50-63. opolot, j. (2007). a re-examination of the demand for money in uganda: nature and implications for monetary policy. the bank of uganda staff papers journal, vol. 1, no. 1, p. 5-32. ozturk, i dan acaravci, a. (2008). the demand for money in transition economies. romania journal of economic forecasting, 2/2008, p. 35-43. prawoto, n. (2000). permintaan uang di indonesia: konsep keynesian dengan pendekatan pam. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan vol. 1 no. 1, april 2000; hlm 1-13. prawoto, n. (2010). money demand: a study on the indonesian influental factors. economic journal of emerging markets, december 2010 2(3), p. 223-236. setiadi, i o. (2013). analisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi permintaan uang di indonesia tahun 1999: q1-2010: q4 dengan pendekatan error correction models (ecm). economics development analysis journal 2 (1) (2013), p. 1-9. sidiq, s. (2005). stabilitas permintaan uang di indonesia: sebelum dan sesudah perubahan sistem nilai tukar. jurnal ekonomi pembangunan, vol. 10 no. 1, april 2005, p. 31-41. jesp | jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan article type: research paper fisheries subsidies in indonesia and china bayu rhamadani wicaksono abstract: the world trade organization (wto) considers sustainable economic development. one of the regulations arranged is the unfair trade that several activities will be eliminated in the future, including the fisheries subsidies. the objectives of this research are (1) understanding the general descriptions about fisheries subsidies in indonesia and china; (2) how large the impacts of fisheries subsidies that are linked with the policies; and (3) the opinion whether the fisheries subsidies must be stopped or not. this research uses the literature studies from several sources and the supplementary data are also included to strengthen this study. based on the result and discussion, the fuel subsidies are the largest fisheries subsidies in both indonesia and china. although the fuel subsidies are harmful and burden the government budget, the policy of subsidies is still needed, especially in the developing countries, including indonesia. those subsidies contribute the positive effects to the fisheries sector performance. on the other hand, eliminating fisheries subsidies, particularly the fuel subsidies, is expected to provide the negative impacts. for the policy, the government regulates the programs in the fisheries sector. there are two feasible schemes in the fisheries market in case talking about the fisheries subsidies with the aim of a trade policy tool and sustainability. the author does not agree if the fisheries subsidies stopped. the government must evaluate the subsidy policies that can be connected with the fisheries sector performance indicators and must still prepare state budget for fisheries subsidies, especially subsidies for small-scale household, such as fishers. the fisheries subsidies should be continued with applied terms and conditions, so the subsidies will be used wisely by the fisheries business actors and will be appropriately monitored by the government. keywords: fisheries subsidies, fuel subsidies, government budget. jel classification: g28; h25; h53. introduction the world trade organization (wto) is admitted as an international trade organization that sustains the liberalization of trade in the commodities and services. however, the wto also reckons the sustainable economic development and the needs of developing countries. one of the wto’s regulations that want to be arranged is unfair trade. the subsidies is one of affiliation: universitas padjadjaran, jawa barat, indonesia. *correspondence: bayu18007@mail.unpad.ac.id this article is available in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.20.2.5023 citation: wicaksono, b. r. (2019). fisheries subsidies in indonesia and china. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 20(2), 176-189. article history received: 30 april 2019 accepted: 26 october 2019 mailto:bayu18007@mail.unpad.ac.id http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/6214 bayu rhamadani wicaksono fisheries subsidies in indonesia and china jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 177 the state policies considered as the practice of the unfair trade because it can harm the parties by the practice of subsidies. generally, the provisions on subsidies have been organized in article vi and xvi of the general agreement on tariffs and trade (gatt) 1994 and specifically regulated in the agreement on subsidies and countervailing measures (scm agreement) 1994. the subsidies, according to scm article 1.1 points a and b, is the financial aid from the government or public institutions in the territory of the member country. these forms of financial aid are divided into four types, namely; (1) direct cash assistance; (2) fiscal incentives, such as tax deductions; (3) assistance in the stock of commodities or services, besides infrastructure or buying commodities; and (4) paying the burden that must be compensated by the private agencies. one of the subsidies issues that is often debated among wto member countries is the practice in the fisheries sector. as one of the developing countries that have a large potential of fisheries resources, indonesia has continuing importance to provide a budget for subsidies in the fisheries sector in order to protect national concerns and sustainable development (putra & aqimuddin, 2014). on the other hand, china as the largest producer of capture fisheries in the world, has a meaningful influence on the sustainability fish stocks is not only domestic but also global scale. china is also a subsidizer country in the fisheries sector that has the second highest rank in the world. for fisheries subsidies in 2013, the chinese central government expended rmb 40.383 billion or $6.5 billion and the fuel subsidies was the most expenditure (mallory, 2016). the european union (eu) that consists of many developed countries also have more attention in the fisheries sector, especially the aquaculture sector. they have invested €1.17 billion from 2000 to 2014 and have a future scheme to embed a further €1.72 billion between 2014 and 2020 via the european maritime and fisheries fund (emff). these investments have a goal to render the eu aquaculture sector more competitive and successful (guillen, asche, carvalho, polanco, llorente, nielsen, & villasante, 2019). most of the world's population choose fish as the main protein source. fish is also an extensible resource, but it can collapse if not administered precisely. nowadays, the fisheries resources over the world are endangered by overexploitation. the world fish production is usually supplied for human consumption immediately, more than 75 percent. in 2022, the fishmeal and fish oil in the world market will be estimated to reach usd 14.28 billion. many fish now endure from a ̀ tragedy of open access', with widespread and serious stock depletion because human populations have extended and unmanaged fishing strain has increased significantly. overexploitation has not only dropped overall fish stocks, but also converted fish stocks from huge communities to impoverished communities (pezzey, roberts, & urdal, 2000). based on the food and agricultural organization (fao) report on the ‘state of world fisheries and aquaculture’ in 2016, hundreds of million people in the world still chose the bayu rhamadani wicaksono fisheries subsidies in indonesia and china jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 178 fisheries sector as a prominent source of food, nutrition, revenues and livings. furthermore, the report presents that most fish exports are produced by developing countries. this obviously represents that a greater contribution of the fisheries market is handled by the developing countries rather than the developed countries. for the least developed countries and developing countries, fish is not only just consumed by human, but also realizes works and yields value added by supplying processed goods. other facts show emerging landlocked developing countries utilize fish as a raw ingredient to make medicines that are exported, such as pharmaceutical outputs including generics of fish oil. consequently, the supply side of fisheries sector will have been effectuated by any disciplines on fisheries subsidies, both production and consumption of high rate goods. in the wto, member countries’ have the similar goal on the fisheries subsidies for interpreting and allowing the subsidies classified by elimination and prohibition. for instance, the objective in the eu proposal is to ban capacity augmenting subsidies (kumar, kumar, stauvermann, & chakradhar, 2019). the subsidies can cause overcapacity for the fisheries sector. the head of the united nations environment program (unep) green economy initiative, pavan suhkdev, expressed that capacity of world fishing fleet is 50–60 percent greater than supposed because of the fisheries subsidies. because of ever-larger fishing fleets hunting eversmaller fish, the global fish stocks may be drained in 2048 (mallory, 2016). more than half of all subsidies in the world are unsafe. those that drop fleet damages or broad fleet revenues rising activity rates, place pressure on stocks and twist trade, and effectuating on the communities and surroundings. the fisheries subsidies are worthwhile is only one-third of them; the others have an ambiguous or indistinct effect. the wto has some negotiations to eliminate harmful subsidies or economic stimulus that assist for overcapacity and overfishing. the next ministerial conference agenda is achieving a multilateral agreement in the end of 2019. the united nations sustainable development goals (sdgs) have persisted for the new regulations on fisheries subsidies. forbidding fisheries subsidies that are connected to overfishing and overcapacity, and stopping subsidies to illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing in 2020 is the one of target 14.6 of sdgs mentions. the fish supplies and social justice can be saved by eliminating particular subsidies, but this will not can be the only solution. this does not mean that environmentally harmful subsidies should not be prohibited or eliminated, but the analysis must insert distributive effects and create possible trade-offs clear to help those policymakers decide whether to execute complementary or compensatory measurements to alleviate any damage (merayo, porras, harper, steele, & mohammed, 2019). although subsidies are confronted by many parties because they have a consideration to burden the government budget, this policy is still needed, especially in developing countries such as indonesia. for this reason, the provision of fisheries subsidies must be executed carefully and on target, and it needs to be joined by the fisheries management schemes because several fisheries subsidies have a high potential to cause overfishing. bayu rhamadani wicaksono fisheries subsidies in indonesia and china jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 179 furthermore, the condition of indonesian fishers is still very alarming and still needs government assistance to raise their standard of living. therefore, the appropriate fisheries subsidies policies are needed so that the subsidies given have a positive impact, both economically and ecologically (muchlisin, fadli, nasution, & astuti, 2013). the objectives of this research are (1) understanding the general descriptions about fisheries subsidies in indonesia and china; (2) how large the impacts of fisheries subsidies that are linked with the policies; and (3) the opinion whether the fisheries subsidies must be stopped or not. the previous researches just concerned the fisheries subsidies in the one country or region. this research studies the comparation of fisheries subsidies between indonesia and china. hopefully, the results of this study are the important things for stakeholders and policy makers, especially in indonesia. the government can use the results to evaluate and arrange the future planning and subsidies policies that are suitable for the development and sustainability of the fisheries sector. research method this research uses the literature studies from several sources, both domestic and international journals. the supplementary data are also included from bps-statistics indonesia/ badan pusat statistik (bps) and the ministry of marine affairs and fisheries/ kementerian kelautan dan perikanan (kkp). the case study in indonesia and china is chosen to represent the implementation of the fisheries subsidies. the analysis in this research uses qualitative data analysis with a descriptive and interpretive approach to be flexible in discovering the clues about the problems and phenomena. the descriptive analysis is a simple method to provide an overview of the object based on the data and information. this analysis can be presented in the form of tables, figures, mean, or standard deviation. there are several operational definitions in this research. first, the fisheries subsidies are a financial transfer both direct and indirect transfers from public institutions to the fisheries sector, so these can provide more benefits to the sector. the fao defines that the fisheries subsidies are the government actions or inactions outside of regular practices that transform by increasing or decreasing– the potential benefits by the fisheries industry in the short-term, medium-term, or long-term (putra & aqimuddin, 2014). second, the fuel subsidies is the government activities aiming the reduction of the cost of fuel energy production, the increase of price obtained by energy producers, or the decrease of the price paid by energy consumers (oil change international, 2019). last, the government budget is the government activities on the revenues and spendings for a fixed period. in the national finance, a budget involving the period is usually a year, known as a fiscal year, whether it matches with the calendar year or not (due, poole, lindbeck, morris, & kay, 2019). bayu rhamadani wicaksono fisheries subsidies in indonesia and china jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 180 result and discussion the indonesian government has provided several types of fisheries subsidies. ghofar in putra and aqimuddin (2014) classifies the type of capture fisheries subsidies carried out by indonesia with the risk level in table 1. from nine (9) subsidies given, most subsidies have a negative risk. only the conservation and fisheries resource management has a positive one. the head of the fiscal policy agency, suahasil nazara, said that the fuel and lpg subsidies in the draft of state budget/ rancangan anggaran pendapatan belanja negara (rapbn) 2019 are idr 100.7 trillion. the allocation increased significantly by around 114.7 percent from the state budget/ anggaran pendapatan belanja negara (apbn) 2018, which only amounted to idr 46.9 trillion. suahasil detailed that for the fuel subsidies, it was targeted to be accepted for idr 33.36 trillion consisting of kerosene subsidies idr 4.3 trillion including value added tax/ pajak pertambahan nilai (ppn) and diesel oil idr 29 trillion (sicca, 2018). the fuel subsidies are also subsidies needed by indonesian fishers. in suryawati, ramadhan, zamroni, and purnomo (2013), indonesian fishers spend most operational costs of fishing for fuel expenditure (table 2). with the existence of fuel subsidies, it is expected that operational costs can be reduced significantly. consequently, fishers can get a more significant surplus of business to meet their daily needs and improve household welfare. the subsidies also occur in the aquaculture fisheries, although the amount of subsidies is not as much as in the capture fisheries. one of them is the aquaculture rural community development program of aquaculture fisheries/ program pengembangan usaha masyarakat perdesaan (pump) perikanan budidaya. the pump social assistance is a government effort to increase aquaculture production. with the aquaculture production, the presence of fish consumption for the domestic market will be fulfilled so that there is no need to import excessive fisheries products (putra & aqimuddin, 2014). table 1 the types of subsidies and the risk levels no. the subsidies form the type of risk the risk level (1) (2) (3) (4) 1 procurement and modernization of vessels and fishing gears negative very high 2 provision of operational costs negative very high 3 provision of modal access negative high 4 procurement of infrastructures negative high 5 promotion and market aids negative medium 6 introduction of skills and techniques negative medium 7 the other social aids negative medium 8 introduction of making value added negative low 9 introduction of conservation and fisheries resources management positive source: putra & aqimuddin (2014) bayu rhamadani wicaksono fisheries subsidies in indonesia and china jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 181 table 2 the fuel price and its proportion by the vessel size in indonesia, 2013 vessel size (gt) purchasing price (idr) annual fuel cost (idr) annual operational cost (idr) ratio of fuel cost to operational cost (%) < 5 5,500 23,760,000 36,864,000 64 5-10 5,500 15,840,000 37,362,000 42 10-20 4,500 40,680,000 82,280,000 49 20-30 4,500 148,500,000 190,260,000 78 30-50 8,200 524,800,000 699,560,000 75 50-100 8,200 492,000,000 667,440,000 74 100-200 8,200 3,926,790,000 5,599,365,000 63 source: suryawati et al., (2013) table 3 chinese fisheries fuel subsidies, 2006-2013 (millions of rmb) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 domestic 2,890 5,107.54 11,754.18 9,383 15,070 20,630 n/a n/a dwf 281 326.77 883.46 815 1,608 2,680 n/a n/a hk, macau 245 487 680 n/a n/a total 3,171 5,434.31 12,637.64 10,443 17,165 23,990 35,113 38,132.72 source: mallory (2016) the chinese ministry of agriculture informs a series of fisheries yearbook including the investment in the fisheries sector. the government categorizes these spendings into three sections: (1) basic infrastructure developments, (2) specialized expenditure schemes, and (3) fuel subsidies in both capture and aquaculture fisheries. in 2013, the chinese central government give subsidies to the fisheries sector around rmb 40.383 billion or $6.5 billion and the most spending was the fuel subsidies, that is rmb 38.133 or $6.14 billion (table 3). based on the china fisheries yearbook 2012–2014, the government expenditures was used to perform the risk profile of fisheries subsidies in china. after comprehending the data, the fisheries subsidies in china could be divided into five parts, namely harmful, likely to harm, ambiguous, likely to benefit, and beneficial (table 4). there are many spendings including in the red zone (harmful) and the warning zone (likely to harm). as a result, there was evidence that 96 percent of fisheries subsidies in china are dangerous because of the most expenditure for the fuel subsidies. if the fuel subsidies were not included, the groups of subsidies get somewhat more equal (figure 1). on the other hand, the fisheries subsidies provide the multiplier effects on the fisheries sector performance indicators. the role of the fisheries sector in the indonesian economy shows an increasing trend, particularly on the economic output, household income, and employment absorption. bayu rhamadani wicaksono fisheries subsidies in indonesia and china jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 182 table 4 the chinese central government expenditure in fisheries sector, 2011-2013 (millions of yuan) harmful likely to harm ambiguous likely to benefit beneficial aquaculture central government expenditures in millions of yuan 2011 2012 2013 central government expenditures in millions of yuan 2011 2012 2013 (1) (2) (3) (4) (1) (2) (3) (4) basic infrastructure quality control systems 12.5 12.5 12.5 aquatic breeding farms 100 116.5 107.29 fisheries administrative management 67.6 86 117.61 epidemiology stations 97 97.7 15 fisheries production loss assistance 23 23 43 fisheries administration and harbors (including fisheries administration vessels) 237.91 4,363.69 300 pilot projects on fisheries insurance 10 10 10 fishing harbors 353.3 211.91 0 antarctic resources exploration program 20 20 20 protected areas/reserves 20 20 20 fisheries assessment and exploratory catch 22 22 24.1 capacity building 60.66 60.7 82.71 fisheries breeding quality protection 89.5 117.4 121.4 comprehensive agriculture development 26.2 27.9 45.2 supplementary budgeting 2.15 1 0 fishing vessel renovation 0 4,034.4 200 subtotal ministry of agriculture 276.95 325.4 380.31 converting boats to homes 0 0 500 central government budget transfer total basic infrastructure 895 8,932.8 1,270.2 seeding 221 306 309.95 building ranching areas 50 89.7 90.05 specialized financing programs vessel decommissioning, production restructuring, and fishermen retraining 29 4.3 0 support for the production of “food basket” items 100 200 200 ministry of agriculture disaster relief 410 0 0 ecological protection (such as fishing reduction) 3 3 2.86 subtotal central government budget transfer 810 600 600 statistics 20 20 18.44 total specialized financing programs 1,087 925.4 980.31 international communication and cooperation 1.5 1.5 1.4 total central government expenditures 1,982 9,858.2 2,250.51 wildlife species protection expenses 0.7 4 4 fuel subsidies 23,990 35,113 38,132.72 disease monitoring and defense expenses 5 5 5 grand total subsidies 25,972 44,971.2 40,383.23 source: mallory (2016) including fuel subsidies not including fuel subsidies bayu rhamadani wicaksono fisheries subsidies in indonesia and china jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 183 figure 1 the risk profile of central government expenditures both including and not including fuel subsidies, 2013 source: mallory (2016) the productivity of the fisheries sector must be increased through efforts to manage and utilize the fisheries resources optimally and encourage the development of small and medium scale of fisheries processing industries (tajerin, 2009). a change in capture fisheries management policy is needed in the context of recovering fisheries resource stocks and capture fisheries activities, such as sustainable fisheries management and management based on an ecosystem approach (wiadnya, djohani, erdmann, halim, knight, mous, pet, soede, 2005). in figure 2, the production of capture fisheries in 2015 and 2016 reached about 6.6 million tonnes. its production increased by 6.9 million tonnes in 2017. the capture fisheries in indonesia is both the marine fisheries and inland open water fisheries (ministry of marine affairs and fisheries, 2018). the aquaculture fisheries also have a prominent role in the fulfillment of fisheries production in indonesia. the aquaculture fisheries production in 2015 reached 15.6 million tonnes. then, its production rose 16.0 million tonnes in 2016 and 16.1 million tonnes in 2017 (ministry of marine affairs and fisheries, 2018a). figure 2 the number of capture and aquaculture fisheries production in indonesia, 2012-2017 (million tonnes) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 capture fisheries 5.8 6.1 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.9 aquaculture fisheries 9.7 13.3 14.4 15.6 16 16.1 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 p r o d u c t io n ( m il li o n t o n n e s ) 96% 1% 2% 0% 1% harmful likely to harm ambiguous likely to benefit beneficial 6% 15% 37% 8% 34% harmful likely to harm ambiguous likely to benefit beneficial bayu rhamadani wicaksono fisheries subsidies in indonesia and china jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 184 source: ministry of marine affairs and fisheries figure 3 the farmers’ terms of trade of fishery/aquaculture subsector in indonesia, 2015-2017 source: bps-statistics indonesia the fisheries production is one of the variables that effectuates the increase of gdp value of the fisheries sector. based on the gross domestic product (gdp) from bps-statistics indonesia (2018a), fisheries sector had an increase. in 2016, the gdp of the fisheries sector reached 214.5 trillion rupiahs with 5.15 percent growth and 2.56 percent contribution to the national gdp. in the following year, the gdp of the fisheries sector reached 227.3 trillion rupiahs with 5.95 percent growth and 2.57 percent contribution to the national gdp. the growth of fisheries export has become one of specific focus for the government, in this case the ministry of maritime affairs and fisheries. according to the directorate general of strengthening competitiveness of marine and fishery products processing bps-statistics indonesia data, the value of fisheries export increased 8.12 percent from usd 3.78 billion (2016) to usd 4.09 billion (2017). in the same period, the fisheries export value to the major destination countries increased too. the fisheries export value to the united states grows 12.82 percent, tiongkok grows 11.28 percent, the european union grows 9.38 percent, japan grows 8.31 percent, asean grow 3.42 percent, and others fell 1.76 percent (ministry of marine affairs and fisheries, 2018c). the farmers’ terms of trade of fishery/aquaculture subsector/ nilai tukar petani subsektor perikanan/ budidaya ikan (ntnp) describe the purchasing power of the fishermen and fish farmers in indonesia. this indicator can also be used as the proxy for the fisheries household welfare in indonesia. based on bps-statistics indonesia (2018b), the farmers’ terms of trade of fishery/ aquaculture subsector increased to 1.67 points from 2015 to 2017; 102.38, 102.82, and 104.05 respectively (figure 3). the farmers' terms of trade of fishery/aquaculture subsector has increased in recent years. this fact shows that the purchasing power of fishermen and fish farmers is better than before. the objectives of this research are (1) understanding the general descriptions about fisheries subsidies in indonesia and china; (2) how large the impacts of fisheries subsidies 102.38 102.82 104.05 101.5 102 102.5 103 103.5 104 104.5 2015 2016 2017 bayu rhamadani wicaksono fisheries subsidies in indonesia and china jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 185 linked with policies; and (3) the opinion whether the fisheries subsidies must be stopped or not. for the first objective, according to mallory (2016) and putra and aqimuddin (2014), subsidies in the fisheries sector are divided into four types, namely: (1) beneficial subsidies; (2) capacity-enhancing subsidies; (3) ambiguous subsidies; and (4) harmful subsidies. the beneficial subsidies are programs that are shown as investments in natural capital assets. for example, conservation and supervision of fish catches, fisheries management schemes, and fisheries research and development. capacity enhancing subsidies provide disinvestment, likes increasing fisheries capacity causing overexploitation. ambiguous subsidies are the aid programs that have no known (ambiguous) output, whether in the form of investment or disinvestment, such as fisheries counseling. harmful subsidies reverse economic booster and reduce fishing profits including fuel subsidies and tax exemptions. the developed countries provide large subsidies in the field of fisheries management, while the developing countries give large subsidies regarding the support of making fuel and repairing ships. many global subsidies are dangerous and load the government budget, especially the fuel subsidies. unfortunately, fuel subsidies are the greatest fisheries subsidies in both indonesia and china. although most global subsidies are harmful and overlay the state budget, the subsidies are still needed, especially in the developing countries, including indonesia. for the second objective, the fisheries subsidies also contribute the positive effects to the fisheries sector performance indicators. several indicators in the results chapter show the increase gradually, namely the fisheries production, fisheries export, and farmers’ terms of trade of fishery/aquaculture subsector. the result of muchlisin et al. (2013) research is the majority of fishermen have accepted subsidies from both government and nongovernment organizations. they declared that the types of aid proposed were appropriate with their needs and they are still hoped that the fisheries subsidies should be continued in the future. if the fisheries subsidies are eliminated, they can get negative impacts directly. on the other hand, the fuel price increase, or fuel subsidies elimination, are expected to provide the negative impacts. the results show that the increase of fuel price immediately contribute to the negative effects on operational costs for not only the capture fisheries, but also the aquaculture fisheries and fish processing, such as production process, product distribution and consumption (suryawati et al., 2013). the other studies also present the same condition if the elimination of fuel subsidies is applied. the reduction of fuel subsidies give negative impacts, such as diminishing fishermen welfare, increasing the fish price, and rising illegal fishing. the fuel is the most important requirement for fishermen to catch fish (saptanto & wijaya, 2014). it also will give the negative impacts on the fisheries market, fisheries resources and employment putra and aqimuddin (2014). the focus of government programs in the fisheries sector achieves three main target indicators. first, pro-poor namely increasing the income of fishers, fish farmers and bayu rhamadani wicaksono fisheries subsidies in indonesia and china jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 186 coastal communities, and increasing the reach of community empowerment programs from poor coastal populations. second, pro-job, namely increasing employment of fisheries labor. third, pro-growth, namely increasing the contribution of fisheries gdp towards non-oil national gdp (excluding processing). to fulfill the three major focus in the fisheries sector, the government must carry out several subsidy actions (putra & aqimuddin, 2014). according to kumar, et. al (2019), the market entrance for fisheries sector has three main classifications of countries: “(i) the holders of fisheries resources; (iii) the holders of fish extraction capacity; and (iii) the current suppliers of marine capture in fisheries”. the matrix in table 5 presents the outputs of two schemes: “(i) the example of retention and recognition of fisheries subsidies; and (ii) the elimination of fisheries subsidies”. finally, there are two feasible schemes in the fisheries market in case talking about the fisheries subsidies with the aim of a trade policy tool and sustainability. table 5. the possible outcomes based on the fisheries subsidies and licenses scenarios developed countries’ producers with vessel capacity and non-specific subsidy are issued license developed countries’ producers with vessel capacity and non-specific subsidy are not issued license developing countries’ current global marine catch producers retain existing and introduces new subsidies, and are issued fishing licences competition competition no market domination competition developing countries’ current global marine catch producers eliminate specific fisheries subsidies, and are not issued fishing licences dominate market (possible oligopoly) exit fisheries market compete and dominate exit fisheries market source: kumar, kumar, stauvermann, & chakradhar (2019) from the matrix, there is a difference in the implementation of fisheries subsidies, depending on whether the developed countries or the developing countries. the subsidies elimination will provide a positive welfare impact for the developed countries. on the other hand, the subsidies elimination will be give a negative welfare impact for the developing countries because most of them are the main producers of capture fisheries. ultimately, the negative welfare impact can also effectuate the most small-scale fishermen with low-income that settle in the developing countries. merayo et al., (2019) review the subsidy reform and distributive justice in the fisheries sector. this study analyses and examines choices for resolving justice concerns in the reform of fisheries subsidies and calls for governments to think the impacts of subsidies bayu rhamadani wicaksono fisheries subsidies in indonesia and china jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 187 and subsidy reform on inflammable social communities. several choices for reform can be selected by the policymakers. they would probably encounter solid opposition if they remove subsidies altogether because of high short-term disadvantages at the fisheries sector and society levels that outweigh any long-term benefits. for the last objective, based on the result and discussion of this research, the author does not agree if the fisheries subsidies stopped. although there are some negative impacts, the fisheries business actors, especially small-scale fisheries households (fishers), still need subsidies. the fisheries subsidies should be continued with applied terms and conditions, so the subsidies can be used wisely by the fisheries business actor and can be properly monitored by the government. the author's opinion is in accordance with putra and aqimuddin (2014) research, the fisheries subsidies must continue to be implemented by the government, especially to protect fishers and small fisheries industries. adam and surya (2013) state that the fishers and fish farmers still need subsidies to sustain their fisheries activities. the government provides subsidies including fuel subsidies, input subsidies (seedlings, cold storage, and other supporting facilities), and output subsidies (maintaining price stability). in the capture fisheries, the existence of fuel subsidies would reduce operational costs significantly. as a result, fishers can gain a more significant surplus to fulfill daily needs and upgrade household welfare (suryawati et al., 2013). in the aquaculture fisheries, if there is an increase of fuel price or an elimination of fuel subsidies, it can contribute a huge effect both on intensive and semi-intensive scale, such as increasing production costs directly and decreasing the business profit (ramadhan and suryawati, 2016). conclusion the fuel subsidies are the greatest fisheries subsidies in both indonesia and china. although most global subsidies, including the fuel subsidies, are harmful and burden the government budget, the subsidies policy are still needed, particularly in the developing countries, including indonesia. the fisheries subsidies also contribute the positive effects to the fisheries sector performance indicators. on the other hand, the removal of fisheries subsidies, particularly the fuel subsidies, is expected to make the negative impacts. for the policy, the government regulates the programs in the fisheries sector. there are two feasible schemes in the fisheries market in case talking about the fisheries subsidies with the aim of a trade policy tool and sustainability: (i) the retention and recognition of fisheries subsidies and (ii) the elimination of fisheries subsidies. the author does not agree if the fisheries subsidies stopped. the fisheries subsidies should be continued with applied terms and conditions. hopefully, the subsidies can be used wisely by the fisheries business actors and can be adequately monitored by the government. bayu rhamadani wicaksono fisheries subsidies in indonesia and china jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 188 recommendation there are two recommendations for the government. first, the government must evaluate the subsidy policies that have been implemented whether to successful or not. it can be connected with fisheries sector performance indicators. second, the government must still prepare state budget for fisheries subsidies, especially subsidies for small-scale household, such as fishers. the transparency of fisheries subsidies is a must as stated in the wto agreements contained in “the ministerial decision on fisheries subsidies”. there are two recommendations for the next research. first, the next research can use the quantitative analysis, so we can get the direct variables that affect the fisheries subsidies partially and simultaneously. second, the next research can add the time series data, so we can see the trend whether the fisheries subsidies have more positive impacts or not. references adam, l. & surya t.a. 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dan suryanto fakultas ekonomi universitas sebelas maret surakarta jalan ir. sutami no. 36 a kentingan surakarta 57126, telp. 0271 647481, fax. 0271 638143 e-mail: fitriaannisaputri@yahoo.com abstract: the purposes of this study are: 1) to describe the adaptation strategies by tobacco farmers caused by climate change, 2) to determine social, economic, and risk perceptions variables toward decision of tobacco farmers to do the mitigation. the area of research is in kecamatan bulu, kabupaten temanggung. data analysis method used in this research are descriptive analysis and linear regression. based on the descriptive analysis showed some adaptation strategies by tobacco farmers in kecamatan bulu, have been done by pendangiran, fertilizing, spraying anti-foul, delaying planting and tumpangsari. the results of the regression analysis showed that farmers' income variables have a statistically significant effect on the degree of confidence of 5%, while the land area variable has a statistically significant effect on the degree of confidence of 10%. increasing of income is needed to increase willingness to pay to reduce losses due to climate change. the education, age, and risk perception variables did not influence the decision to undertake adaptation strategies in the study area. keywords: tobacco farmers, adaptation strategies, climate change, the risk of farming abstrak: tujuan penelitian ini adalah: 1) menggambarkan strategi adaptasi petani tembakau karena perubahan iklim, 2) menentukan variabel-variabel sosial, ekonomi, dan persepsi risiko, yang mengarah pada keputusan para petani tembakau melakukan mitigasi. wilayah penelitian berlokasi di kecamatan bulu, kabupaten temanggung. kemudian metode analisis data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah analisis deskriptif dan regresi linear. berdasarkan analisis deskriptif menunjukkan beberapa adaptasi strategi oleh petani tembakau di kecamatan bulu, telah dilakukan oleh pendangiran, fertilizing penyemprotan anti-foul, menunda penanaman dan tumpangsari. hasil analisis regresi menunjukkan bahwa variabel pendapatan petani memiliki efek signifikan secara statistik pada tingkat kepercayaan 5%, sementara variabel area tanah memiliki efek yang signifikan secara statistik pada tingkat kepercayaan 10%. kenaikan pendapatan petani diperlukan untuk memperbesar tingkat kesediaan membayar dalam menurunkan kerugian akibat perubahan iklim. variabel-variabel pendidikan, usia, dan persepsi risiko tidak mempengaruhi keputusan melakukan strategi adaptasi di wilayah penelitian. kata kunci: petani tembakau, strategi adaptasi, perubahan iklim, risiko usaha tani pendahuluan dampak perubahan iklim yang paling nyata pada sektor pertanian adalah kerusakan (degradasi) dan penurunan kualitas sumberdaya lahan dan air, infrastruktur pertanian, penurunan produksi dan produktivitas tanaman pangan, yang akan menghasilkan ancaman kerentanan dan kerawanan terhadap ketahanan pangan dan bahkan kemiskinan. hal tersebut dapat meningkatkan risiko usaha tani, baik pangan, perkebunan, peternakan, maupun hortikultura. para petani bingung menghadapi perubahan iklim karena hujan tidak kunjung berhenti, misalnya tembakau milik petani di jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 13, nomor 1, april 2012: 33-42 34 temanggung rusak akibat terlalu banyak hujan. serangan hama juga menurunkan produksi panen. informasi iklim sangat dibutuhkan petani namun informasi ramalan cuaca kebanyakan tidak akurat dan petani tidak mendapatkan informasi tersebut. kabupaten temanggung merupakan salah satu penghasil tembakau di jawa tengah. terdapat tiga gunung yang mengelilingi kabupaten temanggung, antara lain gunung sumbing (3.371 meter di atas permukaan laut), gunung sindoro (3.153 meter), dan gunung prau (2.656 meter) dengan kondisi tanah yang berpasir dan sedikit masam merupakan tanah non-irigasi atau pertanian tadah hujan. tanah tersebut setiap tahunnya ditanami dengan tanaman tembakau. tanaman tembakau sudah turuntemurun dari sesepuh dahulu merupakan tanaman andalan petani temanggung. hasil panen tersebut akan terbeli oleh pabrik dari rokok kretek, yaitu pabrik gudang garam, djarum, bentoel dan pabrik rokok sukun. tembakau di daerah temanggung tergolong tembakau musim kemarau (voor-oogst) yang digunakan sebagai bahan membuat rokok kretek. tembakau temanggung dapat menyumbang 60-80 persen terhadap total pendapatan petani. nilai ekonomi yang tinggi menyebabkan daya saing tembakau temanggung terhadap komoditas lain juga sangat tinggi. luas areal tembakau temanggung adalah 19.000 hektar dan jumlah petani yang mengandalkan pendapatanya dari tembakau sekitar 57.000 orang. sektor pertanian di kabupaten temanggung, khususnya tembakau sangat besar peranannya terhadap pdrb (pendapatan daerah regional bruto) karena 70 persen berasal dari sektor tersebut. (suwarso et al, 2009) dalam drasti (2011)). masa penanaman tanaman tembakau daerah pegunungan berkisar dari pertengahan bulan februari sampai dengan akhir bulan maret. sedangkan pada tanah persawahan, diperkirakan masa tanam pada pertengahan bulan april sampai dengan akhir bulan mei. lahan tersebut terus disterilkan dari gangguan rumput-rumput liar di sekitar tanaman sampai tembakau tersebut berbunga. tanaman tembakau akan terlihat baik apabila pada waktu penanaman terjadi hujan, hal itu akan membantu pertumbuhan tanaman agar cepat tumbuh dan berkembang. semakin kering lahan kondisi lahan, semakin baik tembakau yang dihasilkan. intensitas cahaya matahari yang tinggi sangat diperlukan terutama pada masa panen dan proses pengolahan pascapanen yang meliputi pemeraman, perajangan, dan pengeringan. faktor cuaca sangat mempengaruhi kualitas tembakau yang dihasilkan sehingga turut menentukan harga jual. para petani mengkhawatirkan apabila hujan turun pada saat musim panen yang diperkirakan terjadi pada bulan juli, agustus dan september karena akan menghasilkan daun yang rusak karena dapat menurunkan kualitas tembakau yang diolah dan tidak dapat dipergunakan sebagai bahan rokok kretek. tembakau yang ditanam di kabupaten temanggung berdasarkan penanaman yakni tembakau gunung dan tembakau sawah. tembakau gunung dibedakan menjadi dua berdasarkan penanaman yakni tegal atas (lebih dari 1200 m dari permukaan laut) dan tegal bawah (900-1200m dari permukaan laut). jenis tembakau yang dihasilkan ada dua macam yaitu tembakau kuning dan hitam. berdasarkan mutu tembakau, tembakau kuning lebih rendah daripada tembakau hitam. tembakau hitam mempunyai mutu khusus yang disebut srintil. tembakau srintil menempati kelas tersendiri karena mutu dan harganya tertinggi di samping kelangkaannya (dinas perkebunan, kehutanan dan konservasi sda kabupaten temanggung, 2006). tanaman tembakau di daerah dataran rendah memerlukan curah hujan rata-rata 2.000 mm/tahun, sedangkan untuk tembakau di dataran tinggi memerlukan curah hujan antara 1.500-3.000 mm/tahun. tanaman tembakau memerlukan lokasi dan suhu udara yang sesuai. suhu udara yang cocok untuk pertumbuhan tembakau adalah berkisar antara 21˚c32,3˚c. tembakau temanggung baik ditanam pada berbagai tipe tanah seperti laktosol, regosol, dan andosol dengan ketinggian 5001.450 mdpl (dinas perkebunan, kehutanan dan konservasi sda kabupaten temanggung, 2006). perubahan iklim sangat nyata mempengaruhi hasil dari tanaman tembakau itu sendiri. strategi adaptasi dampak perubahan iklim (fitria annisa putri dan suryanto) 35 terlihat jelas pada tahun 1998, pada saat itu iklim yang terjadi sangat tidak baik bagi pertumbuhan maupun kehidupan tanaman tembakau. dari pagi, siang, sore sampai malam hujan terus mengguyur tanah perkebunan ataupun persawahan tembakau. tidak terlihat sedikit pun sinar matahari yang muncul. hal tersebut yang memacu gagalnya panen di kabupaten temanggung. hasilnya pun sama sekali tidak dapat digunakan sebagai bahan membuat rokok, maka dari itu petani hanya dapat menggunakannya sebagai rajangan untuk membuat susur yang dipakai oleh orangorang tua di pedesaan. mutu suatu tembakau temanggung akan sangat menentukan suatu harga di pasaran. hal ini berarti bahwa produktivitas meningkat, namun mutu dari produk rendah, tidak akan memberikan manfaat yang memadai bagi petani. untuk mencapai hasil tembakau yang maksimal, maka perlu dilakukan cara sebagai berikut (ditjenbun, 2007): (1) penggunaan benih yang unggul, (2) pengolahan tanah sesuai dengan baku teknis, (3) pengaturan air termasuk peramalan iklim, (4) pemupukan tanaman, (5) perlindungan tanaman, dan (6) panen serta pacsapanen. tujuan dari penelitian ini yaitu: (1) mendeskripsikan strategi adaptasi yang dilakukan oleh petani tembakau di kecamatan bulu, temanggung, dan (2) mengetahui faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi petani, seperti pendapatan, pendidikan, umur petani, persepsi risiko, dan luas lahan dalam melakukan strategi adaptasi dengan menggunakan willingness to pay (wtp). perubahan iklim merupakan berubahnya kondisi fisik atmosfer bumi antara lain suhu dan distribusi curah hujan yang membawa dampak luas terhadap berbagai sektor kehidupan manusia (kementerian lingkungan hidup, 2001 dalam lapan). perubahan ini tidak hanya terjadi sesaat tetapi dapat terjadi dalam kurun waktu yang panjang. nilai ekonomi didefinisikan sebagai pengukuran jumlah maksimum seseorang ingin mengorbankan barang dan jasa untuk memperoleh barang dan jasa lainnya. secara formal, konsep ini disebut keinginan membayar (willingness to pay) seseorang terhadap barang dan jasa yng dihasilkan oleh sumberdaya alam dan lingkungan. wtp juga dapat diartikan sebagai jumlah maksimal seseorang mau membayar untuk menghindari terjadinya penurunan terhadap sesuatu (fauzi, 2010). metode penelitian penelitian ini menggunakan data primer yang berupa kuesioner yang dibagikan kepada petani tembakau. dalam pengambil sampel menggunakan metode cluster sampling pada desa yang terpilih yaitu proses pengambilan sampel yang dilakukan dengan menyeleksi anggota sampel dalam kelompok dan bukan secara individu secara terpisah (tuwu, 1993:167). untuk menentukan ukuran sampel (n) diambil dari pendekatan jumlah populasi (n) dengan menggunakan formula slovin (1960) sebagai berikut (tuwu, 1993:161): 1 . di mana: n adalah jumlah populasi, e adalah kesalahan yang diharapkan peneliti, n adalah jumlah sampel yang diambil sesuai dengan rumus slovin yang telah diuraikan sebelumnya, maka jumlah sampel yang akan diambil dengan tingkat ketepatan 90% dalam penelitian ini. populasi ini berdasarkan pada petani yang mempunyai lahan tegalan. tempat penelitian dilakukan di kecamatan bulu, ada 11 desa yang menggunakan lahan tegalan sebagai media tanamnya. penduduk dari 11 desa tersebut diperoleh hasil 2730 orang yang tinggal di daerah tersebut. dihitung menggunakan rumus slovin yang telah dijelaskan di paragraf sebelumnya didapat jumlah sampel sebanyak 96 responden dengan batas kesalahan sebesar 10%. analisis regresi merupakan suatu metode yang digunakan untuk menganalisis hubungan antar variabel. hubungan tersebut dapat diekspresikan dalam bentuk persamaan yang menghubungkan variabel terikat y dengan satu atau lebih variabel bebas x1, x2,…,xn. dalam analisis regresi pola hubungan antarvariabel diekspresikan dalam sebuah persamaan regresi yang diduga berdasar data sampel. 3 in m l k p l a (a r β b g te k k te d la d d te m je d n m s p p y b u la ju d r p k k r 36 model y ni adalah: model regre ln(wtp) = β β keterangan: ponden untu ln(pend) a adalah luas age) adala risiko, e ad β1-β5 adala bel independ hasi gambaran u embakau di kasikan mela kan respond ersebut meli dikan, pend ahan yang d diaan petan dampak per embakau. mampu mem elas mengen diteliti. pertama ngaruh terha mempengaru silkan. sema produktivita pai batas ter yang dihasilk bidang perta umur petani am melaku umlah peta disajikan pad berdasar responden y persen antara kan persenta kurang dari ruhi stamin ju yang digun esi double lo β0+β1ln(inc β3(edc)+β4(a ln(wtp) a uk membaya adalah pen lahan, (edc ah umur, ( dalah error, ah koefisien den il dan pe umum men i kecamatan alui petani den dalam iputi keadaa dapatan, per digunakan u ni untuk me rubahan ikl identifikasi mberikan g nai kondisi a yaitu umu adap produk uhi produks akin bertamb s kerjanya s rtentu karen kan juga me anian biasan akan semak ukan suatu ani berdasar da gambar 1. rkan dari s yang terting a usia 41 sam ase terendah 70 tahun. u na dan pro rnal ekonom akan dalam og c)+β2ln(lan age)+β5(ris adalah kese ar (variabel ndapatan, l c) adalah p risk) adala β0 adalah masing-ma embahas ngenai kead n bulu dapa tembakau y penelitian. an umur, tin rsepsi risiko untuk meng elakukan st lim terhada tersebut gambaran um petani temb ur petani y ktivitas kerja si tembakau bah umur pe semakin men na curahan t enurun. nam nya semakin kin berpeng pekerjaan. rkan kelom survei, pers ggi yaitu se mpai 50 tahu h yaitu 1,04 usia dapat m oduktivitas mi dan studi m penelitian nd)+ sk) + e esuaian resdependen), ln(lahan) pendidikan, ah persepsi konstanta, asing variasan daan petani t diidentifiyang dijadiidentifikasi ngkat pendio dan luas gukur kesetrategi dari ap tanaman diharapkan mum yang bakau yang yang berpea yang akan yang dihaetani, maka nurun samtenaga fisik mun, dalam n bertambah galaman dagambaran mpok umur entase usia besar 41,67 un, sedangpersen usia mempengaresponden, pembangun semakin nurunka ponden masih da dan mas mereka m sumber: da ked an dapa an kera dapat d informas but. ting tanggap faatkan respond sumber: da men kan gam tertinggi sekolah kan ting jenjang p sebesar yoritas r dilihat p nan volume 1 n bertambah an produktiv tergolong apat memen sih dapat me miliki. ata primer, diola gambar 1 dua yaitu tin at membantu ngka berpik digunakan u si dan memp gkat pendid atau tidak kesempatan en dapat dil ata primer, diola gambar 2. t nurut hasil mbar 2 bahwa i terdapat dasar (sd) gkat pendidik pendidikan p 1,0%. dapa responden b pada tingka 13, nomor 1, h usia seseor vitasnya. ma usia prod nuhi kebutuh eningkatkan ah 2012 . umur respo ngkat pendid u petani dal kir secara s untuk mener pergunakan dikan juga ak knya petani n atau pelu lihat pada ga ah 2012 tingkat pend dari survei a jumlah ting pada jenja , yaitu 65,5 kan terenda perguruan t at disimpulk erpendidika at pendidik april 2012: 3 rang dapat ayoritas usia uktif, sehin han keluarga n usahatani y onden dikan. pendi am pemben sederhana y rima, meng informasi te kan menentu dalam mem ang. kompo ambar 2. idikan yang ditun gkat pendid ang pendid persen seda h terdapat p tinggi (pt) y kan bahwa an rendah, d kan jenjang 33-42 me resngga anya yang idikntukyang olah erseukan manosisi njukikan ikan angpada yaitu maapat sd strateg yang le ke pat m rumah tangga pengha jaan p diterim menun memlik rp2.00 sar r persen tani rp1.00 pendap besar j tingkat sumber: ke tembak ruh pa bahwa tembak ini data sumber: gi adaptasi d ebih tinggi d etiga yaitu p mencerminka htangga. be a per bulan asilan tidak okok melain ma responde njukkan 4,1 ki pendap 00.000. petan p1.000.001-r n, sedangkan yang b 00.000 dan 2 patan kuran jumlah pend t kesejahtera data primer, dio gambar 3 eempat, yait kau luas lah ada produk a luas lahan y kau juga be a yang berup data primer, dio gam dampak peru daripada per pendapatan an keadaan esarnya pen responden hanya bersu nkan total p en setiap bu 7 persen p patan antar ni yang berp rp1.500.000 n 59,38 perse berpenghasil 21,88 persen ng dari rp5 dapatan dap aan hidup. olah 2012 3. tingkat pen tu luas laha han tembaka ksi, hal ini yang semak ertambah be pa diagram p olah 2012 bar 4. luas la ubahan iklim rguruan ting rumahtangg ekonomi ndapatan r cukup bera umber dari p penghasilan ulannya. gam petani temb ra: rp1.50 pendapatan sebanyak en merupaka lan rp50 lainnya me 00.000 per b pat menunju ndapatan an. pada tan u akan berp dapat dipa kin besar pro esar pula. b pada gamba ahan m (fitria ann ggi. ga dasuatu rumah agam. pekern yang mbar 3 bakau 00.001 sebe14,58 an pe00.001emiliki bulan. ukkan naman pengaahami oduksi berikut ar 4. pe ku pe de de ya me gr pe ru tan sa ga da seb de ny ka ha sa sum st ba ha ne jua tu di tem pa dil ma de pe tan ng nisa putri dan gambar 4 ersentase ter urang dari ersen. persen engan luas engan 1,5 he aitu 0,5 ha. s erupakan ha kelima y am pada ga etani respond uhnya damp naman temb rkan hasil ambar 5 terli alam perseps besar 83,33 en banyak ya ya perubaha au akan mem asil yang bur at panen. mber: data prim g trategi adap agi petani te arapan mere en yang berk al yang ting runnya huja saat musim mbakau da ada daun tem terdapat lakukan ole atan bulu te engan melak enyemprotan nam dan m giran adalah n suryanto) 4 memberik rbesar luas 0,5 hektar ntase terend lahan antar ektar. rata-r sebagian bes ak milik prib yaitu tentang ambar 5 mer den mengen pak peruba bakau yang analisis yan hat bahwa s si risiko den persen itu a ang menjaw an iklim pad mpengaruhi ruk dan men mer, diolah 2012 ambar 5. pers ptasi embakau pa eka adalah m kualitas baik ggi. perubah an dengan i m panen dap an dapat m mbakau. beberapa s h para peta epatnya di kukan pend n obat anti b melakukan t h salah satu kan informa lahan peta yaitu sebe dah yaitu 4, a 1,01 hekt rata luas lah ar lahan yan badi. g persepsi ri upakan hasi nai seberapa ahan iklim mereka tana ng ditunjuk skor jawaban ngan skala 1 artinya bahw ab setuju de da saat musi daya tahan ngalami keru epsi risiko da saat mus mendapatkan k dan mempu han iklim yan ntensitas cu pat merusak mengalami k strategi adap ni tembakau desa wono dangiran, pe busuk, menu tumpang sa strategi adap 37 asi bahwa ani adalah esar 61,46 ,17 persen ar sampai han petani ng dimiliki isiko. diail jawaban berpengaterhadap am. berdakkan pada n tertinggi 11-15 yaitu wa responengan adaim temban tanaman, ugian pada sim tanam n hasil paunyai nilai ng berupa ukup besar k tanaman kebusukan ptasi yang u di kecasari, yaitu mupukan, unda masa ri. pendaptasi yang jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 13, nomor 1, april 2012: 33-42 38 dilakukan bertujuan merawat ulang dengan membuat saluran air pada tanah yang akan ditanami tembakau dengan cara meninggikan tanah tersebut agar air yang membasahi tidak dapat merendam tanaman. apabila terjadi iklim yang buruk strategi tersebut biasanya dilakukan sampai 3 kali selama masa tanam dan tergantung struktur tanah. strategi dalam hal pemupukan memang lazim dilakukan untuk menyuburkan tanaman, biasanya pemupukan dilakukan 2 kali selama masa tanam berbeda halnya apabila pada musim buruk pemupukan dapat dilakukan sampai 4 kali dalam masa tanam. pendangiran dan pemupukan yang dimaksud di sini adalah sebuah tindakan susulan apabila terjadi musim yang tidak baik untuk pertumbuhan tembakau. strategi adaptasi yang lain guna menjaga tanaman dari serangan hama, yaitu dengan melakukan penyemprotan obat pada tembakau. ada dua cara yang dilakukan, pertama adalah dengan penyemprotan daun dengan obat fungisida bertujuan agar daun tembakau tidak busuk dikarenakan oleh jamur. kedua adalah penyemprotan pada pohon, dimulai dari waktu pembibitan diawal masa tanam dengan memberi obat biolak. menunda masa tanam juga dilakukan oleh petani di kecamatan bulu apabila terdeteksi bahwa cuaca yang terjadi sangat buruk. hal ini dilakukan hanya selang beberapa hari saja dengan masa tanam yang seharusnya dilakukan. biasanya sekitar 8 sampai 10 hari penundaan masa tanam yang dilakukan oleh petani tembakau di kecamatan bulu. strategi adaptasi yang selanjutnya adalah melakukan tindakan tumpang sari. dengan menanami tanaman seperti tanaman palawija di sela-sela tanaman tembakau. hal tersebut dimaksudkan untuk mengurangi kerugian apabila mengalami hasil panen pada tembakau tersebut buruk. analisis regresi setelah dilakukan survei kepada petani tembakau di desa wonosari, kemudian akan dilakukan analisis regresi guna untuk mengetahui variabel yang berpengaruh terhadap variabel terikat (dependent variable) dan variabel bebas (independent variable). analisis yang digunakan adalah model regresi berganda dengan bentuk double log. untuk mengetahui besarnya pengaruh masing-masing variabel independen terhadap variabel dependen, digunakan alat analisis regresi berganda, dengan model regresi double log linear sebagai berikut: ln(wtp) = β0 + β1ln(inc) + β2ln(land) + β3(edc) + β4 (age) + β5(risk) + e dimana: ln(wtp) adalah kesediaan membayar (willingness to pay), ln(inc) adalah pendapatan, ln(land) adalah luas lahan, (edc) adalah pendidikan, (age) adalah umur, (risk) adalah persepsi risiko, β1-β5 adalah koefisien regresi, β0 adalah konstanta, dan e adalah error. (1) uji multikolinearitas. multikolinearitas adalah suatu kondisi dimana terdapat korelasi atau hubungan antarvariabel independen. cara untuk mendeteksi ada tidaknya multikolinearitas salah satunya dengan membandingkan r2 (koefisien determinasi) regresi awal dengan r2 parsial (koefisien korelasi antarvariabel independen). dengan kriteria pengujian: (a) jika nilai r2> r2 maka ada masalah multikolinearitas. (b) jika nilai r2<r2 maka tidak ada masalah multikolinearitas jika dalam model tersebut terdapat multikolinearitas maka model tersebut memiliki kesalahan standar yang besar sehingga koefisien tidak dapat ditaksir dengan ketepatan tinggi. tabel 1. uji multikolinearitas model r² r2 kesimpulan r2inc 0,0563 0,4518 bebas multikolinearitas r2land 0,1175 0,4518 bebas multikolinearitas r2edc 0,1825 0,4518 bebas multikolinearitas r2age 0,1811 0,4518 bebas multikolinearitas r²risk 0,0313 0,4518 bebas multikolonearitas karena nilai r2inc, land, edc, age, risk lebih kecil dari r2 model pertama, maka dapat disimpulkan tidak terjadi multikolinearitas dalam model atau variabel independen tidak saling berkorelasi. (2) uji heteroskedastisitas. heteroskedastisitas terjadi jika muncul dalam fungsi regresi yang mempunyai varian yang tidak sama sehingga strategi adaptasi dampak perubahan iklim (fitria annisa putri dan suryanto) 39 penaksir ols tidak efisien baik dalam sampel kecil maupun besar (tetapi masih tetap bias dan konsisten). salah satu cara untuk mendeteksi heteroskedastisitas adalah dengan uji breuschpagan-godfrey. tabel 2. uji heteroskedastisitas heteroskedasticity test: breusch-pagan-godfrey f-statistic 1,157277 prob. f(5,89) 0,3366 obs*r-squared 5,799427 prob. chisquare(5) 0,3262 scaled explained ss 22,35275 prob. chisquare(5) 0,0004 sumber data: olah data eviews 6.0 berdasarkan hasil uji heteroskedastisitas yang telah dilakukan, diketahui bahwa x² hitung (obs* r squared) = 5,799 sedangkan x² tabel = 5,99. disimpulkan bahwa x² hitung < x² tabel atau 5,79 < 5,99. jadi model tersebut dinyatakan lolos uji heteroskedastisitas. diperoleh persamaan regresi setelah diperoleh dari hasil analisis regresi (lihat tabel 3), sebagai berikut: wtp = 1,307919 + 0,740156 inc + 0,130120 land 0,022209 edc + 0,021431 age + 0,018916 risk + e setelah hasil regresi yang ada akan dilakukan uji statistik meliputi uji t (uji tiap-tiap variable secara individual) dan uji f (uji secara bersama-sama). selain itu akan dilakukan uji asumsi klasik di antaranya adalah uji multikolinearitas dan heteroskedastisitas. estimasi model salah satu uji statistika adalah uji t, yaitu untuk menguji apakah tiap-tiap variabel independen secara individual berpengaruh/signifikan terhadap variabel dependen. dalam pengujian ini menggunakan tingkat signifikan (α) 0,05 dan df = 90. uji t pada variabel pendapatan didapatkan kesimpulan t hitung > t tabel atau 7,638 > 1,662 artinya variabel pendapatan secara individu berpengaruh positif (+) terhadap variabel dependen wtp pada tingkat signifikansi 5%. dapat dikatakan, pendapatan berpengaruh terhadap wtp (kesediaan membayar untuk mengatasi kerugian). uji t pada variabel luas lahan didapatkan kesimpulan t hitung > t tabel atau 1,877 > 1,662 artinya variabel luas lahan secara individu berpengaruh positif (+) terhadap variabel dependen wtp pada tingkat signifikansi 5%. dapat dikatakan, luas lahan berpengaruh terhadap wtp (kesediaan membayar untuk mengatasi kerugian). uji t pada variabel pendidikan didapatkan bahwa kesimpulan t hitung < t tabel atau -0,230 < 1,662 artinya variabel pendidikan secara individu berpengaruh negatif (-) terhadap variabel dependen wtp pada tingkat signifikansi 5%. dapat dikatakan, pendidikan tidak berpengaruh terhadap wtp (kesediaan membayar untuk mengatasi kerugian). uji t pada variabel umur bahwa kesimpulan t hitung < t tabel atau 0,756 < 1,662 artinya variabel umur secara individu berpengaruh negatif (-) terhadap variabel dependen wtp pada tingkat signifikansi 5%. dapat bahwa variatabel 3. hasil analisis regresi nama variabel notasi koefisien regresi standar error konstanta pendapatan luas lahan pendidikan umur persepsi risiko c ln(inc) ln(land) (edc) (age) (risk) -1,307917 0,74015*** 0,13012* -0,022209 0,021431 0,018916 2,682996 0,096893 0,069293 0,096537 0,028317 0,070171 f hitung f sign r2 adj r2 14,67270 0,000000 0,451847 0,421052 keterangan: *) signifikan pada level 10 persen, ***) signifikan pada level 1 persen jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 13, nomor 1, april 2012: 33-42 40 bel umur tidak berpengaruh terhadap wtp (kesediaan membayar untuk mengurangi kerugian). uji t pada variabel persepsi risiko bahwa t hitung < t tabel atau 0,269 < 1,662 artinya variabel persepsi risiko secara individu berpengaruh negatif (-) terhadap variabel dependen wtp pada tingkat signifikansi 5%. dapat dikatakan bahwa variabel persepsi risiko tidak hasil regresi menunjukkan bahwa f hitung (14,672) lebih besar daripada f tabel (2,316), maka h0 ditolak dan menerima h1, maka dapat dikatakan bahwa secara statistik semua koefisien regresi tersebut signifikan pada tingkat signifikan 5%. ini berarti variabel pendapatan, luas lahan, pendidikan, umur, dan persepsi risiko secara bersama-sama berpengaruh terhadap wtp para petani di desa wonosari, kecamatan bulu temanggung. berdasarkan tabel 4, nilai r2 didapat 0,45 ini berarti sekitar 45% variasi variabel dapat dijelaskan dalam model sedangkan sisanya sekitar 55% dijelaskan oleh variabel diluar model. pengaruh pendapatan terhadap willingness to pay dilihat dari nilai koefisien regresi variabel pendapatan adalah sebesar 0,740156 dengan probabilitas sebesar 0,0000 signifikan pada level 1% sehingga variabel pendapatan pada penelitian ini mempunyai pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap kemampuan membayar untuk melakukan strategi adaptasi. wtp = 1,307919 + 0,740156 (inc) = 2,048075, jadi nilai wtp minimal pendapatan petani yaitu sebesar rp2,05,-. dari 10% jumlah penduduk yang sebanyak 2730 petani diperoleh hasil 273. ditunjukkan bahwa wtp minimal = 273 x rp2,05 = 559,65, jadi wtp minimal yang dikeluarkan oleh petani yaitu sebesar rp559,65,-. hasil analisis menunjukkan tanda koefisien pendapatan bernilai positif. ini mengartikan bahwa semakin tinggi pendapatan petani maka akan semakin tinggi rata-rata jumlah nominal rupiah yang dikeluarkan untuk melakukan strategi adaptasi. variabel yang berpengaruh terhadap willingness to pay adalah luas lahan. dapat dilihat pada nilai koefisien regresi variabel luas lahan adalah sebesar 0.130120 dengan probabilitas sebesar 0.0637 signifikan pada level 10% sehingga variabel luas lahan pada penelitian ini mempunyai pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap kemampuan membayar untuk melakukan strategi adaptasi. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa jika luas lahan meningkat sebesar 10% menyebabkan wtp meningkat sebesar 0,13%. hasil analisis menunjukkan tanda koefisien luas lahan bernilai positif. ini artinya bahwa luas lahan yang meningkat maka, petani akan menambah jumlah wtp yang dikeluarkan untuk melindungi tanaman tembakau dari dampak perubahan iklim yang terjadi. tingkat pendidikan, umur, dan persepsi risiko tidak berpengaruh terhadap willingness to pay untuk melakukan strategi adaptasi. simpulan kesimpulan yang diperoleh dari penelitian ini adalah petani tembakau di kecamatan bulu telah berupaya melakukan strategi adaptasi untuk mengurangi kerugian dari perubahan iklim yang berdampak pada hasil panen yang mereka terima. adaptasi tersebut meliputi penundaan masa tanam, melakukan tumpang sari, pendangiran, pemupukan, dan penyemprotan obat jamur atau fungisida pada daun dan batang tanaman. wtp mitigasi yang dikeluarkan oleh petani tembakau dipengaruhi oleh pendapatan dan luas lahan. variabel-variabel yang berpengaruh positif terhadap wtp adalah pendapatan, luas lahan, umur, dan persepsi risiko, sedangkan variabel yang berpengaruh negatif terhadap wtp yang dikeluarkan petani tembakau adalah variabel pendidikan. saran yang dapat diberikan untuk penelitian ini yaitu perlu diadakan penyuluhan dan asosiasi mengenai strategi adaptasi terhadap perubahan iklim yang dapat berdampak pada tanaman tembakau agar lebih banyak pengetahuan yang didapat untuk mengurangi kerugian dari perubahan iklim. adaptasi yang tepat sangat diperlukan untuk mengurangi kerugian petani. kurikulum lokal di wilayah studi perlu ditambahkan bagaimana menghadapi perubahan iklim. persepsi terhadap risiko sebenarnya telah cukup baik namun belum diimbangi dengan peningkatan kesadaran untuk melakustrategi adaptasi dampak perubahan iklim (fitria annisa putri dan suryanto) 41 kan adaptasi yang lebih baik. pemerintah perlu memfasilitasi petani untuk mengikuti pelatihan-pelatihan seperti kunjungan, demonstrasi dan seminar yang dapat meningkatkan pengetahuan serta keterampilan dalam menjalankan usahataninya. daftar pustaka bps. 2010. kecamatan bulu dalam angka tahun 2011. temanggung: badan pusat statistik. ditjenbun. 2007. komoditas tembakau. http:// ditjenbun.deptan.go.id/budtansim/. diakses tanggal 29 mei 2012. fauzi, akhmad. 2006. ekonomi sumber daya alam dan lingkungan. jakarta: gramedia pustaka utama. fauzi, akhmad. 2010. ekonomi sumber daya alam dan lingkungan. jakarta: gramedia pustaka utama. irawan, brm bambang. 2004. willingness to pay dan ability to pay pelanggan rumah tangga sebagai respon terhadap pelayanan air bersih dari pdam kota surakarta. fakultas ekonomi univesitas sebelas maret surakarta. kaczan, d et. al. 2006. willingness to pay to reduce the risk of severe climate change: evidence from australia. australian journal of agricultural and resource economics. lapan. 2009. perubahan iklim di indonesia. http://iklim.dirgantara-lapan.or.id. diakses tanggal 29 mei 2012. mantra, i. b. 2003. demografi umum edisi ke 2. yogyakarta: pustaka pelajar. 227 hal. merryna, annissa. 2009. analisis willingness to pay masyarakat terhadap pembayaran jasa lingkungan mata air cirahab (desa curug goong, kecamatan padarincang, kabupaten serang, banten). skripsi fakultas ekonomi dan manajemen institut pertanian bogor. diakses tanggal 21 oktober 2012. mudhoffir, a. m dan abdul a. m. 2011. hitamputih tembakau. jakarta: fisip ui press. nasution, rozaini. 2003. teknik sampling. fakultas kesehatan masyarakat. universitas sumatera utara. diakses tanggal 3 juni 2012. noviasari w, drasti. 2011. efisiensi penggunaan faktor produksi pada usahatani tembakau rajangan (nicotiana tabacum l.) di kecamatan bansari kabupaten temanggung. skripsi fakultas pertanian universitas jendral soedirman purwokerto. diakses tanggal 29 mei 2012. patunru, arianto a. 2004. valuasi ekonomi: metode kontinjen. jakarta: lpem-feui. pemerintah kabupaten temanggung. 2011. informasi penyelenggaraan pemerintahan daerah kabupaten temanggung tahun 2011. prasmatiwi, f., et al. 2011. kesediaan membayar petani kopi untuk perbaikan lingkungan. jurnal ekonomi pembangunan volume 12, nomor 2, desember 2011. pramesi, mutiah. 2008. willingness to pay masyarakat sebagai respon terhadap upaya perbaikan kualitas lingkungan obyek wisata batu seribu kabupaten sukoharjo melalui pendekatan contingent valiation method. skripsi. fakultas ekonomi universitas sebelas maret surakarta. putra, a. w. 2010. analisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi permintaan tembakau di temanggung. skripsi. fakultas ekonomi universitas sebelas maret surakarta. reksohadiprodjo, sukanto dan andrean budi. 2000. ekonomi lingkungan. yogyakarta: bpfe. rosadi, dedi. 2012. ekonometrika dan analisis runtun waktu terapan. yogyakarta: andi offset. seenprachawong, udomsak. 2006. economic valuation of cultural heritage: a case study of historic temples in thailand. economy and environment program for southeast asia. singapore. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 13, nomor 1, april 2012: 33-42 42 suparmoko. 1994. ekonomi sumberdaya alam dan lingkungan. yogyakarta: bpfe. suryanti, e et al. 2010. strategi adaptasi ekologis masyarakat di kawasan karst gunungsewu dalam mengatasi bencana kekeringan (studi kasus kecamatan tepus, kabupaten gunungkidul). jurnal kebencanaan indonesia vol. 2 no. 3. suryanto. 2011. hubungan karakteristik wilayah, persepsi individu, dan perilaku mitigasi gempabumi di kabupaten bantul diy. disertasi. tuwu, alimuddin. 1993. pengantar metode penelitian. jakarta: ui press. jesp | jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan article type: research paper measuring contagion risk on banking system in the digital era musdholifah*, ulil hartono, and yulita wulandari abstract: as an essential institution to the practice of national payment flow, banks always confront with various risk exposures inherent in them. an interbank interactions through interbank money market might yield higher systemic risks that can lead to a default. this study aims at determining the contagion effects towards indonesian banks. this study used 18 bank samples who provided annual reports from 2007 to 2016. the measurement of the systemic risks was performed by using financial contagion risk index and was tested using vector autoregression method. results show that there was a one-way causality pattern between banks as the research samples, covering bca with bank mayapada, bank maybank, bank mega, and bank resona perdania and also bank cimb niaga with bca, bri, bni, btn, commonwealth bank, j-trust bank, bank keb hana, bank mega, and bank permata. meanwhile, two-way causality occurs between bank bca and bank mandiri and vice versa. in addition, the impact of the risk pressure of a bank is not always positive, however, it is also negative in some cases, which means that the bank can take advantage of the shocked conditions experienced by other banks. keywords: contagion; systemic risk; interbank market; banking institution; shock. jel classification: g21; g01 introduction banks have an important position in the national economic system. its role is getting broader with a variety of services offered that provides convenience to the public, especially in case of financial matters. moreover, a bank also has various risks inherent in it. in coping with the banking crisis occurred, banks become a flimsy institution due to the various exposures they have. financial institutions have an exposure effect towards each other that can be seen from the practice of interbank market. meaning that, a failure occurred in one institution will be contagious and cause further failures in other institutions which run similar business models (kapoor, 2010; 19-20). ayomi and hermanto (2013) explain that systemic risk causes failure of one or several financial institutions as a result of systemic events due to financial system imperfections such as asymmetric information, agency affiliation: universitas negeri surabaya, surabaya, indonesia. *correspondence: musdholifah@unesa.ac.id this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.20.2.5025 citation: musdholifah, hartono, u., & wulandari, y. (2019). measuring contagion risk on banking system in the digital era. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 20(2), 207220. article history received: 24 august 2019 accepted: 29 october 2019 mailto:musdholifah@unesa.ac.id http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/6943 musdholifah, hartono, & wulandari measuring contagion risk on banking system in the digital era jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 208 problems, and moral hazard. those things will cause excessive risk-taking behavior, contagion risk (domino effect), and financial intermediation. zakaria (2015) explains that the contagion effects can come from finance and economics. financial contagion occurs because the agents in domestic and international financial systems are interconnected through the transactions in the financial market, either directly or indirectly. one condition that triggers systemic risk is bank run. simorangkir (2011) defines bank run as an event in which many customers simultaneously withdraw funds on a large scale conducted as soon as possible in a certain bank because the customer does not longer believe the bank’s performance. consequently, this condition might turn into a banking crisis if the bank run occurred in one bank has been transmitted to another bank, known as a contagious effect. schoenmaker (1996) defines banking contagion risk as the condition of financial difficulties in one or more banks that are transmitted to a number of other larger banks or financial systems. the contagion effect can spread through information or credit channels. some researchers have undertaken research on banking contagion effects. aharony and swary (1983) examined the possibility of a contagion effect using capital market when a bank failure in the us occurred. the results show that there is little evidence of the contagion due to the failure of three major banks in the us. it happened because during the transmission period, the central bank played an active role as a lender of the last resort so that the impact of transmission failure can be reduced. this caused doubts for banking experts leading to the idea that the contagion effect had no significant impact towards banking stability. meanwhile, zakaria (2015) conveys that systemic risk is a big source of risk. there were banks in morocco have potential systemic problems, such as atw and bmce. grais and rajhi (2015) also prove that islamic financial institutions could potentially experience the contagion risk in different degrees. the islamic financial institutions face certain risks related to sharia principles in their business activities. billio, getmansky, lo, and pelizzon (2010) explain that the banking sector can be a source of systemic risk compared to other financial institutions. bank liquidity and the fact that the banking sector is not designed to withstand large and rapid losses, make this sector vulnerable to systemic risk. gauthier, he, and souissi (2010) used bank liquidity to see its effect towards bank systemic risk and found that the network effects and liquidity risk were the main causes of systemic risk in the banking system. moreover, upper (2011) describes the simulation method used to predict the potential contagion found in the interbank loan market. similarly, chinazzi and fagiolo (2013) used a network theory to observe the contagion and systemic risk in the financial markets. results show that the relationship or interaction between banks and financial institutions can strengthen the shock of the economic system during the crisis period. based on the description, this study aims at determining the causal relationship between banks in indonesia and examine whether shocks in a bank will cause similar effects to musdholifah, hartono, & wulandari measuring contagion risk on banking system in the digital era jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 209 other banks within the banking system in indonesia. the study was conducted using the granger’s causality test method. globalization leads to the connections between financial institutions and money markets both domestically and internationally. this causes the collapse of a financial institution in one country, which might spread to other institutions or countries (shah, 1997), of which the phenomenon is often called as contagion or systemic risk. in the crisis period, the probability of default from several financial institutions will increase the default on other financial institutions. it means that when financial institutions experience distress, other similar institutions will experience shocks, which is further contagious (zakaria, 2015). such phenomenon is similar to the domino effect because the fall of an institution leads to the fall of other institutions in a row. on a broader scale, the collapse of a certain bank in a country will cause stress to the banking institutions and other financial institutions in other countries. it can be seen in the 2008 us crisis which later spread becoming global financial crisis. rescue costs for banks that experience stressed conditions in preventing the systemic collapse are quite large. shah (1997) states that these costs can reach millions to billions of pounds, so there is a need for research in this field as an effort to prevent the occurrence of systemic risk transmission. there are several studies that have been conducted to determine the cause of the contagion effect. most researchers realize that the interbank market is the most important risk distribution channel for banks and other financial institutions (memmel & sachs, 2013). moreover, the distribution channel can also occur in the context of liquidity and refinancing (schoenmaker, 1996). one of the studies examining transmission of shocks from the interbank market side was conducted by philippas, koutelidakis, & leontitsis (2015) who adapted the barabási – albert model (ba model). the shocks in small banks caused huge losses in a whole so that there was a need for a crisis restraint policy. the interbank networks can be used to explain the shocks and the correlation between the banking sectors. gai, haldane, and kapadia (2011) and gauthier, et al. (2010) empirically examined the distribution channel from a banking crisis in terms of the liquidity. gai, et al. (2011) developed an interaction network model in order to find out how the channel of liquidity shock spread in the banking system. the results show that the concentration and complexity are the main causes of the fragility of the financial institutions until they are able to be the channel which spread shocks in the economic cycle. in general, aharony and swary (1983) distinguish the spread of contagion effects through information and credit channels. the spread of contagion effects through information channels is divided into pure and noisy contagion. pure contagion occurs when negative information such as fraud and investment losses on certain risks that occur in a bank adversely affect all banks, including the banks that have no connection with the first bank. noisy contagion occurs when a bank's failure shows a bad signal for some other banks with similar characteristics. if a bank fails, the other banks with similar asset structures and liabilities will also likely experience bank runs. meanwhile, the spread of contagion musdholifah, hartono, & wulandari measuring contagion risk on banking system in the digital era jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 210 effects through credit channels can occur due to the existence of interbank markets, overthe-counter (otc) derivative markets, and payment systems. the spread of contagion risk can also occur through foreign exchange transactions in the market and the fair value of financial assets (de bandt & hartmann, 2000). it is because the foreign exchange and security transactions have two sides, namely the transfer of assets on one hand and payments on the other, which both lead to the exposure of credit and liquidity risks. the research framework in this study refers to the previous study conducted by christiawan and arfianto (2013), which had similar subjects and research methods. therefore, based on the previous research and literary objectives, the hypotheses proposed in this study are stated as follows: h1 : there is a causal relationship between interbank banking pressures h2 : there is an effect of shocks on bank i towards bank j research method this study aimed at determining the contagion risk in several banks in indonesia. the calculation of the contagion risk was done through the use of composite index taking three variables into account: the comparison between the placements to other banks and deposit this variable indicated that the banks had account interactions with other banks (interbank deposits) so that this indicator could be used to measure the bank's vulnerability towards the contagion risk in the interbank market. the formula is: 𝑝𝑙𝑎𝑐𝑒𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 𝑡𝑜 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑏𝑎𝑛𝑘𝑠 𝑑𝑒𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑖𝑡 the differences between the increase of fair-value financial asset and the total assets this variable was used to assess the resilience of the bank through the total assets towards the shocks that occurred in the securities market. the formula is: differences between the increase of fair − value financial asset 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑎𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑡 the differences between foreign exchange transactions and the total assets this variable was used to measure the bank's resilience through its total assets in responding to the shocks on the foreign exchange market. the formula is: musdholifah, hartono, & wulandari measuring contagion risk on banking system in the digital era jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 211 the differences between foreign exchange transactions 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑎𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑡 those three variables were used to measure the financial contagion risk indicator (christiawan & arfianto, 2013). the indicator was in a form of an index used to measure the systemic risk between banks and the channels of transmission through the interbank money market, foreign exchange transactions, and the fair value of financial assets in the banks. the research population covered all conventional banks in indonesia. meanwhile, the samples used in this study were banks that provided financial reports from 2007-2016. therefore, based on that characteristic, there were 18 banks taken as the research samples. the data used in this study were audited financial statements and were available on each bank’s website or on the website of indonesian stock exchange. the method used in the present study was vector autoregression (var). an analysis with the var method was carried out in sequence to answer the research hypotheses. simple var equation were presented as: 𝑦1𝑡 = 𝛽10 + 𝛽11𝑦1𝑡−1 + 𝛼11𝑦2𝑡−1 + 𝑢1𝑡 𝑦2𝑡 = 𝛽20 + 𝛽21𝑦2𝑡−1 + 𝛼21𝑦1𝑡−1 + 𝑢2𝑡 in matrix form var equation were ( 𝑦1𝑡 𝑦2𝑡 ) = ( 𝛽10 𝛽20 ) + ( 𝛽11𝛼11 𝛼21𝛽21 ) + ( 𝑦1𝑡−1 𝑦2𝑡−1 ) = ( 𝑢1𝑡 𝑢2𝑡 ) 𝑦𝑡 = 𝛽0 + 𝛽1𝑦𝑡−1 + 𝑢1𝑡 2x1 2x1 (2x2) (2x1) (2x1) in order to answer the first hypothesis, the granger’s causality test was conducted. the proposed h0 stated that there was no causal relationship between interbank pressures, while ha showed the contrary. h0 was rejected if the probability value was smaller than the real values. to answer the second hypothesis, var test was conducted to see the effect of shocks from one bank to other banks. result and discussion granger’s causality test to answer the first hypothesis, the granger causality test was carried out by using α of 5%, showing a result that there was a causal relationship between banks in both one-way and two-way causalities. statistically, one-way causality occurred between bank cimb niaga which affected btn, bca, bri, bni, commonwealth bank indonesia, bank permata, bank mega, keb hana bank, and j-trust indonesia bank. meanwhile, bank bca influenced bank mayapada international, maybank indonesia, bank mega, and bank resona musdholifah, hartono, & wulandari measuring contagion risk on banking system in the digital era jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 212 perdania. bri influenced bni, bank ekspor indonesia, mayapada bank, and bank nusantara parahyangan. bank mandiri affected bri, bni, and commonwealth indonesia. bank commowealth indonesia influenced bni and bank mega. btn affected bca. bni affected bank danamon indonesia. j-trust bank affected bni. mayapada international bank affected bni. bank permata influenced bank mayapada international and bni. bank woori saudara indonesia influenced bni. finally, bank ekspor indonesia affected maybank indonesia and bank resona perdania. in addition, the results of the granger test also showed that, statically, there was a two-way relationship or causality between bca and bank mandiri. vector auto regression analysis based on the granger causality test, it could be seen that there was an interbank causality in both one-way and two-way causalities. next, a var analysis was conducted to determine the impact of shocks from bank j towards bank i. although it was statistically significant, the impact of shocks was not always positive. based on the results of the tests, there were many cases indicating that the impact of the shock was negative, which meant that bank i could take advantage of the shock that occurred in bank j. large banks had large asset values so that they could reduce the risk of the shock impacts that occurred in other banks. in some cases, the shock of other banks gave benefits to the aforementioned banks. one of the banks with large assets was bni. based on the results of the var analysis, if the risk in bca four periods ago changed by 1%, it could reduce bni's risk in this period by 2.78837%. moreover, if the btn risk three periods ago increased by 1%, it would reduce bni’s risk at this period by 2.09282%. the same thing happened with the increase in bank danamon's risk in the last period, bank ekspor indonesia a period ago and three periods ago, indonesian j-trust bank one period and three periods ago, keb hana bank one period ago and three periods ago, bank mayapada two periods ago and four periods ago, maybank bank last period and three periods ago, bank mega four periods ago, bank nusantara parahyangan two periods ago and four periods ago, bank permata last period and three periods ago, and bank resona perdania two periods ago and four periods ago; would statistically reduce bni’s risk by a percentage reflected in table 1 (appendix). the bank shocks could also be caused by the condition of the bank in the past. as an example, for bni, the shock occurring last period, two periods ago, and three periods ago, led to the shocks in the current period. bca, as one of the national private banks with large assets, also experienced shocks due to the past conditions. in several banks with not-too-large assets, the effects of shocks did not cause significant shock to other banks. an example could be seen from bank mayapada international in which there were not many banks affected by the shock. in addition, the interbank shocks, even though they were statistically positive, were not too significant because the shock did not directly cause default conditions to other banks. this condition also did not cause a systemic crisis in banks in indonesia. it supported a research conducted by zakaria (2015) which stated that contagion occurred due to the agents in financial systems that were connected through financial market transactions directly or indirectly. this was also in line with the musdholifah, hartono, & wulandari measuring contagion risk on banking system in the digital era jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 213 results of the research done by christiawan and arfianto (2013) showing that there was interbank causality, and the impact of shocks did not directly cause complacency to other banks. the limitation of this study was that it only dealt with the contagion risk in terms of the market risk as stated in the researches done by memmel & sachs (2013) and philippas, et al. (2015), and also it did not take the contagion risk into account in terms of the liquidity as stated in gai, jenkinson, & kapadia (2007), gai, et al. (2011), gauthier, et al. (2010), allen and gale (2000), allen, carletti, and gale, (2009), chen, chen, & gerlach (2013), ahelegbey and giudici (2014). conclusion this study aims at analyzing the pressures and the impacts of the shock effect from one bank to other banks. the spread of the contagion risk in this study was measured from the interbank market risk channels by taking the bank vulnerabilities in interbank account interactions, the risks of the securities market and foreign exchange market. the test results show that there is one-way and two-way causalities, for two-way relationship or causality it found that there is causality between bca and bank mandiri. in addition, there is also an impact of the shock from banks j towards bank i, of which the statistics are not always positive. this shows that there is pressure among the banks in indonesia. although statistically there are inter-bank shocks, the shock value tends to be small so that it does not lead to direct systemic crisis. the limitation in this study is that it does not take the distribution channel in terms of liquidity, therefore, the future studies are expected to take the contagion risk assessment in terms of liquidity into account. acknowledgment this research was supported by ministry of research, technology and higher education. we thank our colleagues from unesa who provided insight and expertise that greatly assisted the research. appendix table 1 var analysis bank bank respon bank bank respon bank bank respon bca bca (-2) -3.54 bni bca (-4) -2.79 bri bca (-2) -2.36 bca (-3) -3.25 bni (-1) -2.78 bca (-3) -2.91 bri (-1) 1.84 bni (-2) -3.53 bni (-1) -2.14 bri (-2) -3.51 bni (-3) -3.2 bri (-2) -2.54 bri (-3) -2.68 bri (-2) 4.33 bri (-4) -1.88 bri (-4) -2.52 bri (-3) 4.79 btn (-1) 5.97 btn (-1) 5.76 btn (-3) -2.09 btn (-4) -4.19 btn (-2) -2.09 danamon (1) -2.04 cimb niaga (-1) 4.74 btn (-4) -4.01 ekspor_ind (1) -2.6 cimb niaga (-2) 3.63 cimb niaga (-1) 4.10 ekspor_ind (2) 2.71 cimb niaga (-3) 3.1 musdholifah, hartono, & wulandari measuring contagion risk on banking system in the digital era jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 214 bank bank respon bank bank respon bank bank respon bca cimb niaga (2) 3.48 ekspor_ind (-3) -2.77 btn mega (-1) 2.27 cimb niaga (3) 2.86 ekspor_ind (-4) 2.76 mega (-2) -2.02 danamon (-2) -2.24 jtrust_ind (-1) -2.65 mega (-3) 1.71 ekspor_ind (1) 2.01 jtrust_ind (-2) 2.73 resona_perd ania (-1) 2.24 ekspor_ind (2) -1.95 jtrust_ind (-3) -2.74 woori_sdra (-1) 1.8 ekspor_ind (3) 1.92 jtrust_ind (-4) 2.7 woori_sdra (-2) -1.93 ekspor_ind (4) -1.93 kebhana (1) -2.94 woori_sdra (-3) 2.00 mandiri (-4) -1.82 kebhana (2) 2.94 woori_sdra (-4) -2.09 maybank (-1) 2.07 kebhana (3) -2.88 bca (-2) 2.12 maybank (-2) -2.05 kebhana (4) 2.76 bca (-3) 2.99 commo n _wealt h bca (-2) -2.16 nusantara_ parahy (-4) -2.61 kebhana (-1) -1.92 bca (-3) -2.94 permata (1) -2.77 kebhana (-2) 2.28 bni (-1) 1.98 permata (2) 2.84 kebhana (-3) -2.39 bri (-2) -3.02 permata (3) -2.79 kebhana (-4) 2.42 bri (-3) -2.89 permata (4) 2.71 mandiri (-4) 1.9 btn (-1) 2.94 resona_per dania (-1) 1.90 mayapada (3) 1.86 btn (-4) -2.47 resona_per dania (-2) -2.57 mayapada (4) -2.09 ekspor_ind (1) 2.26 resona_per dania (-3) 2.53 maybank (-1) -2.45 ekspor_ind (2) -2.30 resona_per dania (-4) -2.53 maybank (-2) 2.52 ekspor_ind (3) 2.34 cimb niaga bca (-2) -2.24 maybank (-3) -2.58 ekspor_ind (4) -2.37 bca (-3) -2.98 maybank (-4) 2.63 kebhana (-2) -1.7 bni (-1) -3.04 mega (-1) -2.35 kebhana (-3) 1.81 bri (-1) 2.23 mega (-2) 1.89 kebhana (-4) -1.83 bri (-2) -2.45 permata (-3) -1.69 mandiri (-4) -1.68 bri (-3) -2.13 permata (-4) 1.9 maybank (-1) 1.98 bri (-4) -2.62 woori_sdra (-1) -2.83 maybank (-2) -2.04 btn (-1) 3.44 woori_sdra (-2) 3.01 maybank (-3) 2.10 btn (-4) -2.24 woori_sdra (-3) -3.18 maybank (-4) -2.16 cimb_niag a (-1) 2.43 woori_sdra (-4) 3.32 mega (-1) 2.38 danamon (4) -1.76 jtrus t indon esia bca (-3) -2.11 mega (-2) -2.07 ekspor_ind (-1) 2.66 bni (-1) -2.501 musdholifah, hartono, & wulandari measuring contagion risk on banking system in the digital era jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 215 bank bank respon bank bank respon bank bank respon woori_sdra (-1) 2.75 ekspor_ind (-2) -2.7 bri (-2) -3.06 woori_sdra (-2) -2.87 ekspor_ind (-3) 2.74 bri (-3) -2.72 woori_sdra (-3) 3.01 ekspor_ind (-4) -2.8 bri (-4) -1.99 woori_sdra (-4) -3.16 jtrust_ind (-3) 1.84 btn (-1) 4.49 ekspor indones ia bca (-2) -1.7 jtrust_ind (-4) -2.11 btn (-4) -3.52 bni (-1) 2.6 kebhana (1) 2.16 cimb niaga (1) 4.34 cimb niaga (1) -3.18 kebhana (2) -2.43 cimb niaga (2) 2.63 cimb niaga (2) -2.67 kebhana (3) 2.52 cimb niaga (3) 2.29 cimb niaga (3) -2.31 kebhana (4) -2.54 danamon (-4) -1.88 danamon (-1) 1.9 mandiri (-4) -2.61 ekspor_ind (1) 2.09 danamon (-2) 3.36 mayapada (-2) 1.90 ekspor_ind (2) -2.08 danamon (-3) 2.19 mayapada (-3) -2.12 ekspor_ind (3) 2.09 jtrust_ind (-1) 1.81 mayapada (-4) 2.31 ekspor_ind (4) -2.12 jtrust_ind (-2) -1.7 maybank (1) 2.44 kebhana (-1) -1.68 mega (-1) -2.99 maybank (2) -2.53 kebhana (-3) 1.76 mega (-2) 2.77 maybank (3) 2.64 kebhana (-4) -1.76 mega (-3) -2.52 maybank (4) -2.73 maybank (-1) 1.83 mega (-4) 2.17 nusantara_ parahy (-4) 1.89 maybank (-2) -1.87 nusantara_pa rahy (-1) -2.27 permata (2) -1.73 maybank (-3) 1.91 nusantara_pa rahy (-2) 2.09 permata (3) 2.01 maybank (-4) -1.94 nusantara_pa rahy (-3) -1.85 permata (4) -2.16 woori_sdra (-2) -1.82 resona_perd ania (-2) 2.20 resona_per dania (-4) 1.7 woori_sdra (-3) 1.96 resona_perd ania (-3) -1.99 woori_sdr a (-1) 1.99 woori_sdra (-4) -2.06 resona_perd ania (-4) 1.72 woori_sdr a (-2) -2.13 keb hana indon esia bca (-3) 1.67 woori_sdra (-1) -2.82 woori_sdr a (-3) -2.28 bri (-2) 3.00 woori_sdra (-2) 2.49 woori_sdr a (-4) -2.42 bri (-3) 3.18 woori_sdra (-3) -2.11 danam on bni (-1) 2.56 bri (-4) 1.95 woori_sdra (-4) 1.77 bri (-3) 2.15 commonweal th (-1) -1.96 c -2.29 danamon (-1) -1.83 commonweal th (-2) 1.912 mandiri bca (-2) 1.96 ekspor_ind (-1) -2.41 commonweal th (-3) -1.89 musdholifah, hartono, & wulandari measuring contagion risk on banking system in the digital era jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 216 bank bank respon bank bank respon bank bank respon bca (-3) 2.82 ekspor_ind (-2) 2.56 commonweal th (-4) 1.9 bri (-1) -2.19 ekspor_ind (-3) -2.67 ekspor_ind (1) -3.22 bri (-2) 3.01 ekspor_ind (-4) 2.75 ekspor_ind (2) 3.36 bri (-3) 2.78 jtrust_ind (-1) -2.88 ekspor_ind (3) -3.48 bri (-4) 2.57 jtrust_ind (-2) 3.05 ekspor_ind (4) 3.578 btn (-1) -3.31 jtrust_ind (-3) -3.11 jtrust_ind (-1) -2.33 btn (-4) 2.52 jtrust_ind (-4) 3.12 jtrust_ind (-2) 2.75 cimb niaga (1) -2.81 kebhana (1) -2.93 jtrust_ind (-3) -3.02 cimb niaga (2) -2.06 kebhana (2) 2.93 jtrust_ind (-4) 3.21 commonweal th (-1) -2.01 kebhana (3) -2.95 kebhana (-1) -3.23 commonweal th (-2) 1.84 kebhana (4) 2.95 kebhana (-2) 3.43 commonweal th (-3) -1.71 mandiri (-4) 1.96 kebhana (-3) -3.48 ekspor_ind (1) -3.04 mayapada (-1) 3.01 kebhana (-4) 3.48 ekspor_ind (2) 3.05 mayapada (-2) -3.09 mandiri (-2) 1.77 ekspor_ind (3) -3.07 mayapada (-3) 3.1 mandiri (-4) 2.53 ekspor_ind (4) 3.10 mayapada (-4) -3.1 mayapada (1) 2.78 jtrust_ind (-4) 1.89 maybank (1) -2.07 mayapada (2) -3.08 kebhana (-1) -2.24 maybank (2) 2.22 mayapada (3) 3.24 kebhana (-2) 2.54 maybank (3) -2.36 mayapada (4) -3.35 kebhana (-3) -2.62 maybank (4) 2.46 maybank (-1) -3.01 kebhana (-4) 2.60 mega (-2) -1.96 maybank (-2) 3.16 mandiri (-4) 2.131 mega (-3) 2.40 maybank (-3) -3.32 mayapada (2) -1.69 mega (-4) -2.68 maybank (-4) 3.44 mayapada (3) 1.98 nusantara_ parahy (-1) 2.59 mega (-4) -1.76 mayapada (4) -2.20 nusantara_ parahy (-2) -2.87 nusantara_pa rahy (-1) 1.72 maybank (-1) -2.88 nusantara_ parahy (-3) 3.03 nusantara_pa rahy (-2) -2.29 maybank (-2) 2.95 nusantara_ parahy (-4) -3.11 nusantara_pa rahy (-3) 2.73 maybank (-3) -3.01 permata (1) -2.96 nusantara_pa rahy (-4) -3.05 maybank (-4) 3.05 permata (2) 3.09 permata (-1) -2.46 mega (-1) -2.18 permata (3) -3.10 permata (-2) 2.95 mega (-2) 1.74 permata (4) 3.085 permata (-3) -3.15 permata (-3) -1.80 resona_per dania (-2) -2.83 permata (-4) 3.25 musdholifah, hartono, & wulandari measuring contagion risk on banking system in the digital era jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 217 bank bank respon bank bank respon bank bank respon permata (-4) 2.01 resona_per dania (-3) 3.01 resona_perd ania (-2) -2.05 woori_sdra (-1) -3.01 resona_per dania (-4) -3.08 resona_perd ania (-3) 2.58 woori_sdra (-2) 3.17 mayba nk indone sia bni (-1) -5.06 resona_perd ania (-4) -2.90 woori_sdra (-3) -3.34 bni (-2) -2.62 woori_sdra (-3) -1.88 woori_sdra (-4) 3.51 bni (-3) -2.54 woori_sdra (-4) 2.11 c -1.85 btn (-1) 3.15 mega bca (-2) -1.82 bni (-1) -2.01 cimb niaga (-1) 4.46 bca (-3) -2.55 btn (-1) 2.59 cimb niaga (-2) 2.85 bri (-2) -2.19 btn (-4) -1.68 cimb niaga (-3) 2.50 btn (-1) 4.52 cimb niaga (1) 2.89 danamon (2) -1.87 btn (-2) -1.77 cimb niaga (2) 1.92 danamon (4) -2.14 btn (-4) -3.29 cimb niaga (3) 1.76 resona_per dania (-1) -1.84 cimb niaga (1) 2.53 nusant ara parahyangan bca (-3) -1.99 reson a perda nia jtrust_ind (-1) 4.22 cimb niaga (2) 3.18 bni (-1) -3.33 jtrust_ind (-2) -3.66 cimb niaga (3) 2.54 bri (-1) 2.05 jtrust_ind (-3) 3.23 cimb niaga (4) 1.95 bri (-2) -3.38 jtrust_ind (-4) -2.89 danamon (-2) -2.38 bri (-3) -3.29 kebhana (1) 2.31 jtrust_ind (-1) -1.83 bri (-4) -2.59 kebhana (2) -1.92 mega (-1) 4.12 btn (-1) 3.74 kebhana (3) 1.78 mega (-2) -3.84 btn (-4) -2.89 kebhana (4) -1.75 mega (-3) 3.35 cimb niaga (1) 3.73 mayapada (-1) -3.60 mega (-4) -2.65 cimb niaga (2) 1.72 mayapada (-2) 3.09 nusantara_pa rahy (-1) 2.48 danamon (-4) -2.03 mayapada (-3) -2.75 nusantara_pa rahy (-2) -1.88 ekspor_ind (1) 3.45 mayapada (-4) 2.52 permata (-1) -1.76 ekspor_ind (2) -3.51 mega (-1) -4.92 resona_perd ania (-1) 2.72 ekspor_ind (3) 3.57 mega (-2) 5.09 resona_perd ania (-2) -2.49 ekspor_ind (4) -3.63 mega (-3) -4.85 woori_sdra (-1) 3.63 jtrust_ind (-1) 2.02 mega (-4) 4.27 woori_sdra (-2) -3.53 jtrust_ind (-2) -2.47 nusantara_ parahy (-1) -4.62 woori_sdra (-3) 3.41 jtrust_ind (-3) 2.79 nusantara_ parahy (-2) 4.09 woori_sdra (-4) -3.37 musdholifah, hartono, & wulandari measuring contagion risk on banking system in the digital era jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 218 bank bank respon bank bank respon bank bank respon jtrust_ind (-4) -3.04 nusantara_ parahy (-3) -3.62 perm ata bni (-1) -4.69 kebhana (-1) 3.04 nusantara_ parahy (-4) 3.19 bni (-3) -2.01 kebhana (-2) -3.29 permata (1) 4.06 cimb niaga (1) 1.82 kebhana (-3) -3.36 permata (2) -3.37 resona_perd ania (-1) -1.83 kebhana (-4) -3.36 permata (3) 2.94 woor i sauda ra ekspor_ind (2) 1.69 mandiri (-2) -1.80 permata (4) -2.67 ekspor_ind (3) -1.76 mandiri (-4) -2.56 resona_per dania (-1) -5.11 ekspor_ind (4) 1.81 mayapada (1) -2.57 resona_per dania (-2) 4.57 mandiri (-4) 1.67 mayapada (2) 2.87 resona_per dania (-3) -3.89 woori_sdra (-3) -1.69 mayapada (3) -3.07 resona_per dania (-4) 3.35 woori_sdra (-4) 1.79 mayapada (4) 3.23 woori_sdr a (-1) -3.72 maybank (-1) 3.06 woori_sdr a (-2) 3.44 maybank (-2) -3.17 woori_sdr a (-3) -3.17 maybank (-3) 3.27 woori_sdr a (-4) 2.98 maybank (-4) -3.34 nusantara_pa rahy (-2) 1.95 nusantara_pa rahy (-3) -2.46 nusantara_pa rahy (-4) 2.83 permata (-1) 2.08 permata (-2) -2.69 permata (-3) 2.96 permata (-4) -3.07 resona_perd ania (-3) -2.26 resona_perd ania (-4) 2.60 woori_sdra (-1) 1.88 woori_sdra (-2) -2.11 woori_sdra (-3) 2.34 woori_sdra (-4) -2.51 c 2.04 references aharony, j., & swary, i. 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(2015). systemic risk and financial contagion in morocco: new approaches of quantification. in overlaps of private sector with public sector around the globe, 141–171. https://doi.org/http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/s0196-382120150000031007 https://doi.org/10.1108/eb024903 https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v14i1.456 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2010.12.001 https://doi.org/http:/dx.doi.org/10.1108/s0196-382120150000031007 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 21 nomor 2, oktober 2020 article type: research paper dynamic financial inclusion in asean 8: do macroeconomics and financial technology matter? tunjung sekar laksmi pandhit abstract: this study aims to estimate the effects of macroeconomic indicators and financial technology on financial inclusion in asean 8 during 2010-2018. there are three financial inclusion indicators, which include debit card ownership (model 1), credit card ownership (model 2), and domestic credit to gdp ratio (model 3). furthermore, the dynamic panel is applied to demonstrate dynamic financial inclusion models. the findings show that the domestic credit to gdp ratio is influenced by the unemployment rate, inflation, and financial technology. in addition, model 1 and 2 show that the fem is a robust model, while model 3 indicates that rem is a robust model. this study encourages governments in asean 8 to manage macroeconomic indicators progressively and stably to expand equal financial inclusion for the community. keywords: financial inclusion; macroeconomy; financial technology; dynamic panel jel classification: c23; e58; g21; o33 introduction financial inclusion encourages and facilitates all individuals to engage in a broad and integrated financial system (berry, 2015; appleyard, rowlingson, & gardner, 2016; salignac, muir, & wong, 2016). in general, the definitions of financial inclusion tend to vary or are not universal. put simply, lenka and barik (2018) described that financial inclusion is identical to the process of providing various financial products and services such as deposit and credit facilities, check services, mobile/internet banking and insurance facilities for poor and low-income households at affordable costs. at the high-level conference held in seoul, south korea in november 2010, financial inclusion became one of the nine main pillars of the global development agenda (gpfi, 2011). the access to finance through financial inclusion will improve savings among people who are not familiar with formal finance such as farmers, so that they can manage their expenses. demirguc-kunt, klapper and singer (2017) said that this access is important for people living in the poor category, because the financial inclusion will help them reduce inequality and poverty. financial inclusion can be measured by several indicators. the latest financial inclusion indicators have been published by the world bank since affiliation: pt putra alam teknologi, bekasi, indonesia *correspondence: sekarpandhit@gmail.com this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.21.2.5037 citation: pandhit, t. s. l. (2020). dynamic financial inclusion in asean 8: do macroeconomics and financial technology matter?. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 21(2), 146-160. article history received: 5 june 2020 reviewed: 29 june 2020 21 sep 2020 revised: 1 july 2020 22 sep 2020 accepted: 9 oct 2020 mailto:sekarpandhit@gmail.com http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/8963 http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp pandhit dynamic financial inclusion in asean 8: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 147 2011 in the form of global findex. chikalipah (2017) utilized bank account ownership as an indicator of financial inclusion. similarly, raza, tang, rubab, and wen (2019) used indicators such as the number of bank accounts and the number of bank branches. furthermore, inoue (2018) used several financial inclusion indicators such as the number of bank branches, the number of bank account ownership, and financial deepening. meanwhile, the composite approach to the financial inclusion index was carried out by sharma (2016); lenka and barik (2018). sharma (2016) employed three dimensions of financial inclusion indicators, namely: (a) banking penetration such as the number of deposit and loan accounts, (b) the availability of banking services such as the number of bank branches and the number of atms, and (c) the practice of banking services such as the ratio deposits per gdp and credit ratio per gdp. in addition, the three dimensions of financial inclusion used by lenka and barik (2018), namely: (a) banking penetration including the number of bank account ownership, (b) the availability of financial services including the number of atms, bank branches, and the number of employees, and (c) the practice of banking services among other such as the volume of credit per gdp ratio and the volume of debits per gdp ratio. figure 1 financial inclusion, financial technology and macroeconomic indicator in asean countries during 2010-2018 source: the world bank, findex and google trend (processed) note: crd = domestic credit/gdp (%); dc = debit card ownership (%); cc = credit card ownership (%); fto = financial technology observer (index); gdpg = economic growth (%); povr = poverty rate (%); inf = inflation (%); and uer = unemployment rate (%). figure 1 describes the development of financial inclusion, macroeconomic, and financial technology indicators in asean 8 during 2010-2018. all financial inclusion indicators have upward trends, especially the debit card ownership. this indicates that the public has responded to the existence of financial institutions by saving for daily transactions. however, the increase in credit card ownership and domestic credit to gdp ratio is relatively slow. this means that there is a business risk and relatively low financial transactions in asean 8 which become obstacles to the acceleration and expansion of financial inclusion. similarly, the condition has happened in the development of financial technology. meanwhile, developments illustrated in macroeconomic indicators show an upward trend. a significant decrease occur in the poverty rate. the development of economic growth, inflation, and unemployment rates tend to be stable. pandhit dynamic financial inclusion in asean 8: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 148 based on gdp growth data (annual in %) published by the world bank, asean countries experience accelerated growth, with an average of 6.02% during 2010 2018. le, chuc, and taghizadech-hesary (2019) described that asia has strong growth. therefore, policymakers should improve the poor access to financial services to ensure normal growth. on 7-8 april 2016, the asian development bank institute, the apec business advisory council, and the foundation for development cooperation held a forum to discuss the issue of financial inclusion in the digital age. the forum discussed the importance of accessing financial services to individuals and groups to be able to get benefit from broad and integrated financial service products. many empirical studies estimate the financial inclusion models both at the level of a country and cross-country analysis. in addition, various approaches or methods have been used to estimate the determinants of financial inclusion. chikalipah (2017) identified several factors that influenced financial inclusion in sub-saharan africa (ssa) in 2014 using the ols method. those factors were literacy, gdp growth rate, population density, infrastructure index, and gni per capita. meanwhile, inoue (2018) employed independent variables such as poverty, real gdp per capita, inflation, and trade openness. specifically, lenka and barik (2018) found that changes in financial inclusion in india did not produce significant growth in rural areas compared to cities. there is a gap of financial inclusion in rural and urban areas which can be caused by a large number of multinational companies in urban areas that drive financial services in urban areas to be more adequate. the development of the financial inclusion index (fii) was conducted by goel and sharma (2017) that a value of 0<ifi≤0.4 indicates low financial inclusion, 0.4<fii≤0.6 describes medium financial inclusion, and 0.6<fii≤1 describe high financial inclusion. the findings of the previous empirical study motivated proofing of the influence of macroeconomic and financial technology on financial inclusion in asean 8. this study focuses on dynamic panel modeling of financial inclusion. this study aims to estimate the effects of macroeconomic indicators and financial technology on financial inclusion in asean 8 during 2010-2018. there are financial indicators which become financial inclusion proxies, namely: debit card ownership, credit card ownership, and domestic credit to gdp ratio. meanwhile, the selection of the eight asean countries is based on relatively similar developments in economic indicators. many asean countries are still experiencing problems in accelerating financial inclusion due to limited financial system accessibilities and capabilities at the level of the banking industry and society. furthermore, 2010 is chosen as an indication of the efforts of asean countries to strengthen the implementation of the banking (financial) integration framework. this empirical study contributes to the existence of literature in several ways. first, the financial inclusion models consist of three-panel models because it uses three dependent variable or indicators so that it will provide information on the impact of macroeconomic indicators and financial technology on each model properly. second, dynamic panels are used to estimate the effect of lagged financial inclusion indicators on each estimation model. third, the financial technology observer is used to determine the impact of the pandhit dynamic financial inclusion in asean 8: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 149 number of users and seekers of financial technology transactions on financial inclusion in asean 8 during 2010-2018. research method previous empirical studies an empirical study of financial inclusion focusing on the relationship between economic growth and the increase of complexity of the financial system was introduced by goldsmith (1969). more broadly, this empirical study has developed in the issue of financial inclusion (le et al., 2019). berry (2015) argued that financial inclusion takes place in response to financialization, by increasing the participation and involvement of individuals in the financial system. salignac et al. (2016) explained that access to financial services rises the concept of supply and demand for financial inclusion. basic formal financial services include credit, savings, insurance, payment, and money transfer facilities. without these services, individuals often use informal financial sources or financial exclusions, which may harm individuals (inoue, 2018). furthermore, formal financial inclusion begins with having a deposit account at a bank or other financial service provider, to make and receive payments and saving money (demirguc-kunt et al., 2017). ellis (2007) added that financial market liberalization is not enough to ensure financial inclusion in individuals who are still limited to financial access services. in addition, financial inclusion problems also occur in micro, small, and medium enterprises due to limited access to credit and domestic and foreign markets (adbi, 2016; hunter, 2016). the relation between financial development and economic growth has been widely analyzed in several literatures in economic field (goldsmith, 1969; gleb, 1989; king & levine, 1993; and fry, 1997). empirically, research on the relation between the two variables has been done by sharma (2016), which found that financial inclusion stimulates economic growth in india. the same finding has been explained by iqbal and sami (2017). therefore, financial sector policy reform and innovation need to be carried out appropriately and progressively in india. furthermore, lenka and barik (2018) explained that the expansion of financial inclusion in india was also supported by financial inclusion policies at both the city and village levels. however, financial inclusion growth in cities is higher than in villages. thus, a significant increase or decrease in economic growth will have significant implications for financial inclusion (anarfo, abor, & osei, 2019). a different thing was found by chikalipah (2017) that good financial literacy will encourage an increase and expansion of financial inclusion compared to macroeconomic indicators such as economic growth and gdp per capita in sub-saharan africa countries. empirical development carried out in this study is the selection of gdp growth as one of the determinants of three financial inclusion indicators in asean 8 during 2010-2018 using dynamic panels. in addition, inflation is also a determining factor in financial inclusion in the dynamic panel model. meanwhile, the link between financial inclusion and poverty has been made by lal (2017). his findings showed that financial inclusion through cooperative businesses has a pandhit dynamic financial inclusion in asean 8: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 150 significant impact on reducing poverty levels in india. furthermore, inoue (2018) revealed that financial inclusion and financial depth have a negative and significant effect on poverty in india. this empirical study uses poverty and unemployment rates in the asean 8 under a dynamic panel model. empirically, the link between financial inclusion and financial technology has been made by lashitew, tulder, and liasse (2018), mushtaq and bruneau (2019), sabir, latif, qayyum and abass (2019). they explained that technological instruments in business transactions develop rapidly in developing countries. lashitew et al. (2018) estimated the relation between financial technology and financial inclusion in pakistan with an emphasis on increasing technological innovation in financial instruments, improving domestic economic conditions and institutions. financial technology is proxied by indicators consisting of mobile accounts, sending money, and receiving money. meanwhile, institutions are explained by the rule of law indicator. in addition, mushtaq and bruneau (2019) estimated the relation between financial technology, financial inclusion, macroeconomics, and institutions in selected emerging economies with the generalized method of moments (gmm) during 2001-2012 while sabir et al. (2019) conducted estimation during 1996-2015. they determined the number of different macroeconomic and institutional variables with different numbers of emerging countries. however, their findings indicate that financial technology can drive the expansion of financial inclusion. this empirical study develops estimates in the form of selecting the financial technology observer as a proxy for financial technology in asean 8 during 2010-2018. it means that individuals who are increasingly searching for and choosing financial technology instruments are expected to encourage the acceleration and expansion of financial inclusion in asean 8. dataset this study selected three indicators as proxies for financial inclusion in asean 8 during 2010-2018 obtained from financial index publications. these three indicators are indicators that are commonly used in the empirical analysis of financial inclusion. meanwhile, macroeconomic indicators consist of economic growth, inflation, poverty rate, and unemployment rate. the data was obtained from the world bank publication. furthermore, this study establishes the indicator of financial technology observer as a proxy for financial technology obtained from google trend. asean countries that became the study sample were indonesia, malaysia, thailand, cambodia, the philippines, vietnam, lao pdr, and myanmar. these countries have similar characteristic bents in the development of economic and financial indicators. table 1 informs the research variables. dependent variables consist of debit card ownership or dc (model 1), credit card ownership or cc (model 2), and domestic credit to gdp ratio or crd (model 3). meanwhile, independent variables include economic growth (gdpg), recovery rate (povr), inflation (inf), unemployment rate (uer), and financial technology observer (fto). pandhit dynamic financial inclusion in asean 8: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 151 table 1 description of research variables variables description debit card ownership (dc) debit card ownership (% age 15+) credit card ownership (cc) credit card ownership (% age 15+) domestic credit to gdp ratio (crd) domestic credit to the private sector (% of gdp) financial technology observer (fto) numbers represent search interest relative to the highest point on the chart for the given region and time. a value of 100 is the peak popularity for the term. a value of 50 means that the term is half as popular. a score of 0 means there are not enough data for this term. economic growth (gdpg) gdp growth (annual %) poverty rate (povr) poverty headcount ratio at national poverty lines (% of the population) inflation (inf) inflation, consumer prices (annual %) unemployment rate (uer) unemployment, total (% of total labor force) source: the world bank, findex and google trend empirical method this empirical study estimates the effect of macroeconomics and financial technology on financial inclusion in asean 8. financial inclusion indicators include debit card ownership, credit card ownership, and domestic credit to gdp ratio. furthermore, three dynamic panel models will be estimated. the panel model used is in the short panel because the panel period is less than 10 years. the basic model of the dynamic panel basic model has been explained by pesaran (2015) where the dependent variable is influenced by the lagged of the dependent variable. model 1 will estimate the effect of macroeconomics and financial technology (fto) on dynamic debit card ownership (dc). macroeconomic indicators used to consist of economic growth (gdpg), the poverty rate (povr), and inflation (inf). this modeling is the development of previous empirical studies that only emphasize economic growth and poverty. thus, the dynamic panel model to be estimated is as follows: dcit = α0 + β1dcit-1 + β2gdpgit + β3povrit + β4infit + β5ftoit + εit (1a) equation (1a) is a pooled ols or common effects model (cem) which can be developed into a fixed effect model (fem) and random effects model (rem). fem is known as the least-squares dummy variable (lsdv) model. the fem equation adds the d (dummy) variable in the model that describes the intercept differences (see equation 1b). meanwhile, rem assumes that α1 is random. we can add ε as a random error so that the term error of rem is w, where w = ε + ս (see equation 1c). dcit = α0+ α1dni+β1dcit-1 + β2gdpgit + β3povrit + β4infit + β5ftoit + εit (1b) dcit = α0 + β1dcit-1 + β2gdpgit + β3povrit + β4infit + β5ftoit + wit (1c) pandhit dynamic financial inclusion in asean 8: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 152 the α0 is the intercept while β1, β2, β3, β4, and β5 are the parameters/slopes of the equation. the values of β1, β2, and β5 are > 0, while β3 and β4 are < 0. furthermore, the i is the cross-section of asean 8 countries. model 2 will estimate the effect of macroeconomics and financial technology (fto) on dynamic credit card ownership (cc). this model is also used as a robustness test against model 1. macroeconomic indicators consist of economic growth (gdpg), the poverty rate (povr), and inflation (inf). the dynamic panel model to be estimated is as follows: ccit = α0 + β1ccit-1 + β2gdpgit + β3povrit + β4infit + β5ftoit + εit (2a) equation (2a) is a pooled ols or common effects model (cem). meanwhile, fem is explained by equation (2b) while rem is described by equation (2c). ccit = α0 + α1dni+β1ccit-1 + β2gdpgit + β3povrit + β4infit + β5ftoit + εit (2b) ccit = α0 + β1ccit-1 + β2gdpgit + β3povrit + β4infit + β5ftoit + wit (2c) the α0 is the intercept while β1, β2, β3, β4, and β5 are the parameters/slopes of the equation. the values of β1, β2, and β5 are> 0, while β3 and β4 are <0. furthermore, the i is the cross-section of asean 8 countries. model 3 will estimate the effect of macroeconomic and financial technology (fto) on the dynamic domestic credit to gdp ratio (crd). this model is also utilized as a robustness test for models 1 and 2. macroeconomic indicators used to consist of economic growth (gdpg), unemployment rate (uer), and inflation (inf). the dynamic panel model to be estimated is as follows: crdit = α0 + β1crdit-1 + β2gdpgit + β3uerit + β4infit + β5ftoit + εit (3a) equation (3a) is a pooled ols or common effects model (cem). meanwhile, fem is explained by equation (3b) while rem is described by equation (3c). crdit = α0 + α1dni+β1crdit-1 + β2gdpgit + β3uerit + β4infit + β5ftoit + εit (3b) crdit = α0 + β1crdit-1 + β2gdpgit + β3uerit + β4infit + β5ftoit + wit (3c) the α0 is the intercept while β1, β2, β3, β4, and β5 are the parameters/slopes of the equation. the values of β1, β2, and β5 are> 0, while β3 and β4 are <0. furthermore, the i is the cross-section of asean 8 countries. result and discussion this empirical study estimates the effects of macroeconomic indicators and financial technology on financial inclusion in asean 8. financial inclusion is proxied by three indicators namely debit card ownership (dc), credit card ownership (cc), and domestic credit to gdp ratio (crd). the mean dc value is 572.3225%. it means that on average, an pandhit dynamic financial inclusion in asean 8: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 153 asean community member has more than 1 debit card. the countries that have relatively low percentages of debit card ownership are cambodia, myanmar, and lao pdr while the countries that have high percentages of debit card ownership are vietnam, thailand, the philippines, malaysia, and indonesia. from 2010-2018, the mean cc value in asean 8 was 121.4883%. countries that have a relatively low cc percentage are cambodia, myanmar, and lao pdr. meanwhile, the mean crd value is 67.9301%. countries that have relatively high crd percentages are vietnam, thailand, and malaysia. thus, the development of financial inclusion in vietnam, thailand, and malaysia tend to be more progressive than the five asean countries. table 2 descriptive statistics variable mean std. dev. min max dc overall 572.3225 561.2078 0.6995 1887.9820 between 579.7744 4.2654 1689.8750 within 129.1920 151.2323 810.5426 cc overall 121.4883 148.4165 0.0010 431.1013 between 156.4689 0.4534 395.5370 within 17.4221 51.0766 177.9990 crd overall 67.9301 47.0383 4.7700 149.3700 between 48.2342 15.4278 139.5656 within 12.1741 34.2201 106.2301 gdpg overall 6.1244 1.5921 0.8400 9.6300 between 1.2239 3.7667 7.5189 within 1.0980 3.1978 9.8678 povr overall 15.6360 9.6199 0.4000 42.2000 between 9.2512 0.7889 32.1200 within 4.0745 2.4993 26.2093 inf overall 3.9250 2.8271 -0.9000 18.6800 between 1.7174 1.6856 6.5678 within 2.3185 -1.7628 16.0372 uer overall 1.9632 1.4490 0.3900 5.6100 between 1.5060 0.6022 4.5689 within 0.2954 1.1399 3.0043 fto overall 27.2138 25.0743 0.0000 72.8000 between 22.3322 1.6522 58.9178 within 13.6451 6.2093 66.0715 source: secondary data (processed) the mean value of economic growth in asean 8 is 6.1244%. during 2010-2018 several asean countries had economic growth rates above 6% such as cambodia, myanmar, and lao pdr. meanwhile, the mean inflation rate is 3.9250%. myanmar and vietnam have experienced inflation rates above 6% for several years. the mean poverty rate in asean 8 is 15.6360%. asean countries that have poverty rates above 15% are cambodia, myanmar, loa pdr, and the philippines. this condition indicates that the economic conditions of asean 8 countries are still full of the economic development cycle problems which are based on high levels of poverty and low-income distribution. furthermore, the mean unemployment rate is 1.9632%. the three countries that are still obstructed by unemployment rate control constraints are the philippines, malaysia, and indonesia. pandhit dynamic financial inclusion in asean 8: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 154 thus, the three countries are relatively difficult to absorb labor in the domestic market compared to other countries in asean 8. table 3 describes the estimated results of dynamic debit card ownership (dc). dc is an indicator of financial inclusion in the dynamic panel model (model 1). based on the hausman test results, it can be seen that fem is the best panel model. fem estimation results show that the dc lag has a significant and positive effect on dc. it means that the development of debit card ownership in asean 8 is currently closely related to the dynamics of debit card ownership in previous periods. meanwhile, macroeconomic and financial technology indicators have no significant effect. this finding is different from the pooled ols and rem estimation results which indicate that macroeconomic indicators (such as economic growth and inflation) and financial technology have a significant effect. however, an increase in economic growth and financial technology led to a decrease in debit card ownership in asean 8. simply stated, this condition indicates that economic growth and financial technology achieved have not been able to encourage significant and evenly distributed public savings activities for all people. other indications show that an increase in inflation causes an increase in debit card ownership (pooled ols and random effects estimation results). it means that people tend to reduce the risk of monetary value at the time of inflation by saving with the hope that they can obtain the appropriate interest rate on savings/deposits. table 3 financial inclusion under dynamic debit card ownership variable pooled ols fixed effect random effect dc(-1) 1.013 (0.025) [40.86]*** 0.738 (0.079) [9.33]*** 1.012 (0.026) [39.48]*** gdpg -11.240 (5.646) [-1.99]* -7.381 (7.394) [1.00] -11.208 (5.780) [1.94]* povr 0.491 (1.520) [0.32] 1.272 (1.886) [0.67] 0.503 (1.547) [0.33] inf 5.954 (2.842) [2.10]** -2.325 (3.551) [0.65] 5.801 (2.861) [2.03]** fto -0.658 (0.360) [-1.83]* 0.169 (0.581) [0.29] -0.690 (0.367) [-1.88]* constant 79.605 (48.120) [1.65]* 207.135 (71.591) [2.89]** 81.582 (49.566) [1.65]* rsquare: within 0.7959 0.7766 betwee n 0.9978 0.9991 overall 0.9901 0.9860 0.9901 wald chi-square 1164.16*** 39.78*** 5228.64*** (f-statistics) lm test 0.34 hausman test 12.51** observations 64 64 64 source: the authors’ estimation note: () denotes standard error [ ] denotes z-statistics ***, ** and * denote significant levels at 1%, 5% and 10%, respectively pandhit dynamic financial inclusion in asean 8: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 155 the r-square of the fixed effects model (fem) is about 0.7959 (within-group). it means that 79.59% of the dependent variable is influenced by variations in the dependent variable. furthermore, the r-square of cross-sectional estimation is 99.78% (between groups). meanwhile, the r-square of the overall estimation is 98.60%. table 4 financial inclusion under dynamic credit card ownership variable pooled ols fixed effect random effect cc(-1) 0.997 (0.0162) [61.47]*** 0.661 (0.084) [7.92]*** 0.998 (0.0219) [45.57]*** gdpg -2.743 (1.139) [-2.41]** -0.643 (1.175) [0.55] -1.750 (1.231) [-1.42] povr -0.162 (0.232) [-0.70] -0.066 (0.298) [0.22] -0.209 (0.269) [-0.78] inf 0.569 (0.509) [1.12] -0.034 (0.498) [0.07] 0.672 (0.511) [1.32] fto 0.090 (0.063) [1.42] 0.322 (0.086) [3.75]*** 0.122 (0.071) [1.71]* constant 17.910 (9.434) [1.90]* 39.838 (13.343) [2.99]** 11.349 (10.645) [1.07] r-square: within 0.7409 0.6975 between 0.9949 0.9992 overall 0.9966 0.9899 0.9955 wald chi-square 2620.38*** 29.17*** 4279.82*** (f-statistics) lm test 0.06 hausman test 13.35** observations 64 64 64 source: the authors’ estimation note: () denotes standard error [ ] denotes z-statistics ***, ** and * denote significant levels at 1%, 5% and 10%, respectively a dynamic panel of financial inclusion estimates is carried out on model 2 to obtain robust estimation results (table 4). the hausman test shows that fem is the right panel model. fem estimation results describe that credit card ownership (cc) is significantly influenced by lagged of cc and financial technology. the number of credit card ownership (cc) in the previous period led to an increase in the current cc period. furthermore, financial technology (fto) has a significant and positive effect on cc. this finding is following the hypothesis developed in model 2. it means that the higher the community seeks and utilizes financial technology, it will encourage an increase in financial inclusion in asean 8. the parameter of constant also indicates a significant and positive influence. thus, fem estimation results are better than pooled ols and rem estimation results. the r-square of fem is 74.09% (within-group). it means that 74.09% of the dependent variable is influenced by variations in the independent variable. besides, the r-square of cross-sectional estimation is 99.49% (between groups). meanwhile, the r-square of the overall estimation is 98.99%. pandhit dynamic financial inclusion in asean 8: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 156 previous empirical studies indicate that macroeconomic indicators such as economic growth, poverty (unemployment), and inflation have a significant effect on financial inclusion. based on tables 3 and 4, it can be seen that the results of the dynamic panel estimation show that economic growth, poverty, and inflation have no significant effect. for this reason, this empirical study carries out an estimation in model 3 and obtains a more robust estimation model. table 5 financial inclusion under dynamic domestic credit to gdp ratio variable pooled ols fixed effect random effect crd(-1) 0.969 (0.016) [59.67]*** 0.956 (0.048) [20.04]*** 0.964 (0.026) [36.88]*** gdpg 0.328 (0.447) [0.73] 0.040 (0.560) [0.07] 0.091 (0.497) [0.18] uer -1.562 (0.510) [3.06]*** -2.171 (2.032) [-1.07] -1.629 (0.931) [-1.75]* inf -0.887 (0.203) [4.38]*** -0.945 (0.215) [4.40]*** -0.931 (0.201) [4.62]*** fto -0.115 (0.301) [3.74]*** -0.099 (0.037) [-2.70]** -0.106 (0.032) (3.28)*** constant 12.789 (4.151) [3.08]*** 16.372 (6.278) [2.61]** 14.603 (4.803) [3.04]*** rsquare: within 0.8965 0.8963 betwee n 0.9972 0.9978 overall 0.992 0.9914 0.9919 wald chi-square 1439.71*** 88.39*** 1558.65*** (f-statistics) lm test 4.17** hausman test 0.24 observations 64 64 64 source: the authors’ estimation note: () denotes standard error [ ] denotes z-statictics ***, ** and * denote significant levels at 1%, 5% and 10%, respectively table 5 shows the estimated results of dynamic domestic credit to gdp ratio as one indicator of financial inclusion. the lm test indicates that the results of rem estimation are correct. rem estimation results inform that the domestic credit to gdp ratio (crd) is influenced by the lag of crd, unemployment rate, inflation, and financial technology. moreover, the constant parameter of estimation also has a significant and positive effect. an increase in the domestic credit to gdp ratio (crd) in the previous period was able to stimulate an increase in the crd of the current period. this condition indicates the expansion of credit transactions in each asean 8. furthermore, the increase in the unemployment rate and inflation will have implications for the reduction in crd. these results are in line with the hypothesis developed in model 3. for this reason, asean 8 governments are expected to be careful in formulating macroeconomic policies to control the amount of unemployment as well as low and stable inflation rates. however, an pandhit dynamic financial inclusion in asean 8: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 157 increase in financial technology led to a decrease in crd. this needs to be explored indepth on how people utilize financial technology so that domestic credit transactions are reduced. furthermore, the estimation results are not following the hypothesis formulated in model 3 that financial technology will encourage an increase in domestic credit. the r-square of rem is 89.63% (within-group). it means that 89.63% of the dependent variable is influenced by variations in the independent variable. furthermore, the rsquare of cross-sectional estimation is 99.78% (between groups). meanwhile, the rsquare of the overall estimation is 99.19%. previous empirical studies conducted by sharma (2016), lal (2017), inoue (2018), lenka and barik (2018), raza et al. (2019) and anarfo, et al. (2019) found that macroeconomic variables had significant effects on financial inclusion. meanwhile, this empirical study shows that economic growth has no significant effect. this can happen due to the inability of the level of economic growth to stimulate the public to increase banking and financial activities broadly and evenly. furthermore, lashitew et al. (2018), mushtaq and bruneau (2019), and sabir et al. (2019) described that financial inclusion has close links with financial technology. these findings are in line with the results of the model 3 estimation of this study. thus, the estimation results of model 3 dynamic panel in this study are considered robust estimation models. acknowledgement many thanks to mr. malik cahyadin from universitas sebelas maret for comments, analytical supports and motivations to improve quality of the study. conclusion financial inclusion can stimulate more efficient economy, deepen financial markets, and broaden banking activities in the community. this paper estimates the impact of macroeconomic and financial technology on financial inclusion in asean 8. the dynamic panel method is chosen to identify past financial inclusion interactions in the current financial inclusion period. in addition, three financial inclusion indicators are used including debit card ownership, credit card ownership, and domestic credit to gdp ratio. the selection of these indicators is already relevant to previous empirical research. the empirical development that has been carried out is the use of dynamic panel methods and financial inclusion variables. model 1 shows that the fixed effect model is more appropriate. the estimation results explain that debit card ownership is significantly influenced by the lag of debit card ownership. besides, constant also has a significant effect. meanwhile, macroeconomic and financial technology variables have no significant effect. this means that the independent variable does not have implications for dynamic financial inclusion in asean 8 during the study period. pandhit dynamic financial inclusion in asean 8: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 158 model 2 describes that the fixed effects model is more appropriate. financial inclusion is a proxy by credit card ownership indicators. credit card ownership is significantly influenced by lagged credit card ownership, financial technology observer, and constant. the results of this estimation provide a better illustration than model 1. it means that financial technology has significant implications for dynamic financial inclusion in asean 8 during 2010-2018. the final model is the random effects model as a more appropriate panel model. domestic credit to gdp ratio is influenced by the lagged of domestic credit to gdp ratio, unemployment rate, inflation, financial technology observer, and constant. this means that macroeconomic indicators and financial technology have significant implications for financial inclusion in asean 8 during the study period. this empirical study provides inputs to economic and financial policymakers in asean 8 to keep inflation rates low and stable. furthermore, governments in the asean 8 region should encourage and facilitate the expansion and acceleration of access to financial technology to the public to accelerate the implementation of financial inclusion on a massive and equitable basis for the wider community. however, this study has limitations in identifying non-economic factors that have significant implications for financial inclusion in asean 8. thus, further empirical research is expected to develop a model for estimating financial inclusion under non-economic factors. furthermore, the selection of more appropriate dynamic models can also be used. references adbi. 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(2016). nexus between financial inclusion and economic growth: evidence from the emerging indian economy. journal of financial economic policy, 8(1), 13-36. https://doi.org/10.1108/jfep-01-2015-0004 https://doi.org/10.1108/jfep-01-2015-0004 microsoft word 04-nugroho jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 2, oktober 2013, hlm. 127-136   bagaimana kesediaan untuk membayar peningkatan kualitas lingkungan desa wisata? nugroho joko prasetyo1, endah saptutyningsih2 1pusat pengembangan ekonomi universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta 2fakultas ekonomi universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta, jalan lingkar selatan, bantul, yogyakarta 55183, indonesia, phone +62 274 387656 e-mail korespondensi: end_naufal@yahoo.com naskah diterima: januari 2013; disetujui: september 2013 abstract: this study aims to know what is age, education, earnings, number of family dependents, expense of visit, visit frequency influence willingness to pay in the effort repair of environmental quality of tourism village in sleman regency after merapi eruption. this study is done in sleman regency, province special region of yogyakarta. this study uses primary data with interview method to the 150 responders. the enumeration estimate of expense that ready society to pay for the repair of environmental quality is done with approach of contingent assessment method (contingent valuation method) to the srowolan tourism village, the brayut tourism village, the kelor tourism village, the kembangarum tourism village and pentingsari tourism village. the analysis of the study is multiple linear regression. results of study indicate that age, education, earnings, have an effect on willingness to pay in the effort repair of environmental quality of the tourism village in sleman regency after merapi eruption. keywords: willingness to pay; rural tourism; contingent valuation method jel classification: q2, q26, q56 abstrak: studi ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui apakah usia, pendidikan, pendapatan, jumlah tanggungan keluarga, biaya kunjungan, frekuensi kunjungan mempengaruhi kesediaan membayar (willingness to pay) dalam upaya perbaikan kualitas lingkungan desa-desa wisata di kabupaten sleman pascaerupsi merapi. studi ini dilakukan di kabupaten sleman, provinsi daerah istimewa yogyakarta. studi ini menggunakan data primer dengan metode wawancara terhadap 150 responden. penghitungan perkiraan biaya yang bersedia masyarakat bayar untuk perbaikan kualitas lingkungan dilakukan dengan pendekatan metode penilaian kontingen (contingent valuation method) ke desa wisata srowolan, desa wisata brayut, desa wisata kelor, desa wisata kembangarum dan desa wisata pentingsari. alat analisis dalam studi ini adalah regresi linear berganda. hasil studi menunjukkan bahwa usia, pendidikan, pendapatan, jumlah tanggungan keluarga berpengaruh terhadap kesediaan membayar (willingness to pay) dalam upaya perbaikan kualitas lingkungan desa-desa wisata di kabupaten sleman pascaerupsi merapi. kata kunci: kesediaan membayar; wisata desa; contingent valuation method klasifikasi jel: q2, q26, q56. pendahuluan seiring dengan semakin meningkatnya permintaan masyarakat terhadap wisata saat ini, pemerintah mulai menyadari bahwa sektor pariwisata dapat memberikan keuntungan jangka panjang jika pengelolaan yang dilakukan menerapkan prinsip-prinsip keberlanjutan dan berwawasan lingkungan. sebagai upaya pencapaian kondisi tersebut, diperlukan suatu kerja sama dan koordinasi yang baik antara pemerintah pusat dengan pemerintah daerah jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 2, oktober 2013: 127-136 128 yang berperan langsung dalam menangani pengelolaan sumberdaya alam yang ada di wilayahnya. terlebih lagi dengan adanya kebijakan otonomi daerah yang memberikan kewenangan pada pemerintah di daerah untuk dapat meningkatkan kesejahteraan warganya dengan menggali dan mengelola sumberdaya alam yang dimilikinya. kabupaten sleman, yang merupakan bagian dari provinsi daerah istimewa yogyakarta (diy), memiliki potensi wisata yang besar untuk dikembangkan. kabupaten sleman memiliki daya tarik yang mampu ditonjolkan sebagai suatu keunggulan produk wisata meliputi geografis, demografis, sejarah maupun panorama alam. objek wisata yang dapat diunggulkan dari kabupaten sleman antara lain terbagi ke dalam beberapa kategori yaitu wisata alam, wisata budaya, dan wisata minat khusus. untuk wisata alam, terdiri atas wisata alam di naungan gunung merapi, desa wisata yang memiliki potensi keunikan dan daya tarik wisata yang khas, baik dari karakter fisik lingkungan alam pedesaan maupun kehidupan sosial budaya masyarakat, bumi perkemahan sinowelah dan wonogondang cangkringan. untuk wisata budaya, terdiri atas monumen yogya kembali, museum gunung api merapi, candi prambanan, dan lain sebagainya. untuk wisata minat khusus, terdiri atas berbagai macam daerah wisata, tracking, wisata kuliner, wisata belanja maupun wisata pendidikan. desa wisata adalah suatu bentuk integrasi antara atraksi, akomodasi dan fasilitas pendukung yang disajikan dalam suatu struktur kehidupan masyarakat yang menyatu dengan tata cara dan tradisi yang berlaku (nuryanti, wiendu. 1993). beberapa hal dibutuhkan dari suatu desa wisata adalah tempat persinggahan wisata (akomodasi) dan obyek wisata yang disuguhkan misal keindahan alam, suasana desa, tarian, bengkel kerja, kebersihan, sarana pendukung dan lain-lain. sedangkan menurut edward inskeep (1991) desa wisata merupakan wisata pedesaan di mana sekelompok kecil wisatawan tinggal dalam atau dekat dengan suasana tradisional, sering di desa-desa yang terpencil dan belajar tentang kehidupan perdesaan dan lingkungan setempat. peristiwa erupsi merapi yang terjadi pada tahun 2010, telah meluluhlantakkan berbagai aspek kehidupan di sleman dan sekitarnya, sehingga menyebabkan trauma yang mendalam pada diri masyarakat yang berada di daerah tersebut. objek dan fasilitas wisata merupakan salah satu aspek yang mengalami kerusakan berat akibat letusan merapi. setelah meletusnya gunung merapi, banyak usaha pariwisata berhenti beroperasi dan berdampak pada penurunan pengunjung ke beberapa objek wisata maupun desa wisata. untuk menggiatkan lagi usaha pariwisata di daerah tersebut perlu usaha tabel 1. data pengunjung desa wisata di kabupaten sleman tahun 2010 no. nama desa wisata oktober desember pertumbuhan (%) domestik asing domestik asing domestik asing 1 brayut 210 122 -41,90 2 jetak 22 15 -31,82 3 kelor 868 0 -100,00 4 kembangarum 200 0 -100,00 5 ketingan 3 25 733,33 6 ledoknongko 25 0 -100,00 7 pentingsari 886 0 -100,00 8 plempoh 97 6 87 3 -10,31 -50,00 9 rumah domes 200 142 -29,00 10 srowolan 27 0 -100,00 11 sukunan 625 615 -100,00 12 tanjung 67 13 -1,60 13 trumpon 14 9 -80,6 14 turgo 5 17 -35,71 15 nawung 102 82 240,00 jumlah 3.351 6 1.127 3 -19,61 -50,00 keterangan : obyek wisata yang tidak tercatat di dinas pariwisata tidak ditampilkan dalam tabel. kesediaan untuk membayar peningkatan... (nugroho joko prasetyo, endah saptutyningsih) 129 kreatif dalam mengelola paket wisata agar kunjungan wisatawan daerah tersebut normal kembali. data yang diperoleh dari dinas pariwisata kabupaten sleman, menunjukkan jumlah pengunjung desa wisata pada beberapa obyek wisata mengalami penurunan jumlah pengunjung selama periode oktober-desember. pada bulan oktober tercatat sebanyak 3.351 pengunjung wisata untuk wisatawan domestik dan 6 wisatawan asing yang berkunjung, namun pada bulan desember terjadi penurunan pengunjung menjadi 1.127 pengunjung wisatawan domestik dan 3 wisatawan asing yang melakukan wisata ke beberapa desa wisata. hal ini dimungkinkan karena telah terjadi bencana meletusnya gunung merapi yang berdampak pada penurunan minat wisatawan untuk berkunjung ke beberapa obyek wisata yang memang sebagian besar terletak tidak jauh dari lereng gunung merapi. penurunan drastis jumlah pengunjung terlihat dari beberapa obyek wisata di antaranya obyek wisata kelor, kembangarum, ledoknongko, pentingsari, dan srowolan. selain itu juga desa wisata brayut, jetak, plempoh, rumah domes, sukunan, tanjung, trumpon, dan nawung juga terjadi penurunan jumlah pengunjung tetapi tidak separah desa wisata yang memang dekat dengan lereng gunung merapi. hanya terdapat beberapa desa wisata yang ada sedikit penambahan jumlah pengunjung yakni desa wisata turgo, desa wisata ketingan, karena para wisatawan ingin melihat dan ingin mengetahui apa yang terjadi setelah gunung merapi mengalami erupsi. estimasi kerugian menurut isei cabang yogyakarta, dengan asumsi nilai ekonomi yang dimiliki objek wisata sama dengan potensi kerugian sumberdaya akibat bencana letusan gunung merapi, maka dengan memperhitungkan use value & non-use value, potensi kerugiannya adalah sebagai berikut: 1) objek hutan wisata kaliurang rp138.516.876.400,00 per tahun; 2) objek wisata desa kinahrejo rp949.264.162,00 per tahun; 3) objek wisata bukit turgo rp604.588.658,00 per tahun; 4) objek wisata kaliadem rp1.489.339.540,00 per tahun. studi ini dilakukan untuk mengetahui seberapa besar kemampuan pengunjung untuk membayar dalam upaya perbaikan kualitas lingkungan di desa-desa wisata yang terdapat di kabupaten sleman menggunakan metode contingent valuation method (cvm). contingent valuation method (cvm) adalah metode teknik survei untuk menanyakan kepada penduduk tentang nilai atau harga yang mereka berikan terhadap komoditi yang tidak memiliki pasar seperti barang lingkungan (yakin, 1997). menurut fauzi (2004) pendekatan cvm pertama kali dikenalkan oleh davis (1963) dalam studi mengenai perilaku perburuan di miami. pendekatan ini secara teknis dapat dilakukan dengan dua cara, yaitu pertama, dengan teknik eksperimental melalui simulasi dan permainan. kedua, dengan teknik survei. adapun tujuan dari cvm adalah untuk mengetahui keinginan membayar (willingness to pay atau wtp) dari masyarakat, serta mengetahui keinginan menerima (willingness to accept atau wta) kerusakan suatu lingkungan (fauzi, 2004). menurut syakya (2005) willingness to pay (wtp) adalah metode yang bertujuan untuk mengetahui pada level berapa seseorang mampu membayar biaya perbaikan lingkungan apabila ingin lingkungan menjadi baik. cvm digunakan mengukur nilai total kesediaan konsumen secara individu untuk membayar barang publik di bawah beberapa skenario hipotesis pasar. metode ini digunakan karena dapat untuk (1) mengestimasi wtp individu terhadap perubahan hipotesis kualitas aktivitas pariwisata; (2) menilai perjalanan dengan banyak tujuan; (3) menilai kenikmatan memakai lingkungan baik pengguna atau bukan pengguna sumberdaya tersebut; (4) menilai barang yang dinilai terlalu rendah (mitchell dan carson, 1989; lee et al.,1998). sarana yang dipilih adalah biaya masuk karena merupakan alat pembayaran yang paling realistis bagi konsumen untuk masuk ke sebuah kawasan wisata (foster, 1989, garrod dan wills, 1999). dalam melancarkan upaya pengembangan wisata di kabupaten sleman, perlu adanya kerjasama antara pemerintah, masyarakat dan lembaga adat setempat. selain itu, upaya peningkatan kualitas fasilitas dan sarana prasarana transportasi yang mendukung akan wisata-wisata yang dikembangkan tersebut harus dilakukan secara optimal. oleh karena itu perlu diketahui faktor-faktor apakah yang jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 2, oktober 2013: 127-136 130 mempengaruhi kesediaan pengunjung untuk membayar (willingness to pay) dalam upaya perbaikan kualitas lingkungan desa-desa wisata di kabupaten sleman. metode penelitian subjek dalam studi ini adalah para wisatawan baik wisatawan domestik maupun wisatawan asing yang berada di desa-desa wisata kabupaten sleman. lokasi studi ini dilakukan di desa-desa wisata yang terdapat di kabupaten sleman antara lain desa wisata srowolan, kelor, kembangarum, brayut, dan pentingsari. data yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah data sekunder dan data primer. adapun data sekunder diperoleh dari berbagai instansi yang terkait yaitu badan pusat statistik provinsi d.i. yogyakarta, dinas pariwisata kabupaten sleman, dan sumber-sumber lainnya. data yang dibutuhkan untuk menjadi bahan studi ini adalah pendapatan anggaran daerah kabupaten sleman, berbagai data non ekonomi meliputi jumlah pengunjung obyek wisata di kabupaten sleman, kondisi sosial masyarakat (populasi, budaya, pendidikan, dan kesehatan), infrastruktur (panjang jalan, ketersediaan listrik, ketersediaan sarana umum, dan sarana transportasi umum), dan pelayanan publik (jaminan kesehatan dan pelayanan investasi). data sekunder di atas juga akan didukung oleh data primer berdasarkan hasil wawancara kepada para pengunjung/wisatawan baik wisatawan domestik maupun wisatawan mancanegara. data ini diperoleh melalui wawancara/pengisian kuesioner dengan responden yang berada di objek wisata di kabupaten sleman. mengingat adanya keterbatasan waktu, biaya dan tenaga, maka dalam pengumpulan data primer dilakukan terhadap 150 responden. pemilihan/penunjukan sampel terutama dilakukan pada pengumpulan data melalui kuesioner dan wawancara, yaitu dilakukan dengan teknik random sampling yaitu pengambilan sampel responden secara acak dilakukan di kawasan wisata terpilih, yaitu: desa wisata srowolan, kelor, kembangarum, brayut, dan pentingsari yaitu dengan membagikan angket kepada para pengunjung objek wisata. analisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi besarnya willingness to pay (wtp) perbaikan kualitas lingkungan desa-desa wisata di kabupaten sleman diduga dipengaruhi oleh variabel-variabel sebagai berikut: (1) pendapatan adalah penghasilan setiap bulan pengunjung desa-desa wisata di kabupaten sleman. penghasilan bersumber dari pekerjaan utama bagi pengunjung yang sudah mempunyai pekerjaan tetap atau penghasilan yang bersumber dari uang saku setiap bulan bagi pengunjung yang belum mempunyai pekerjaan. (2) biaya kunjungan merupakan biaya keseluruhan pengunjung yang dikeluarkan dalam 1 (satu) kali kegiatan wisata. (3) pendidikan adalah lamanya pendidikan formal yang pernah ditempuh seseorang. (4) jumlah tanggungan keluarga merupakan jumlah anggota keluarga yang ditanggung dalam satu keluarga. jumlah tanggungan keluarga akan berkaitan dengan banyaknya pengeluaran yang akan dikeluarkan oleh keluarga tersebut. (5) frekuensi kunjungan adalah beberapa kali pengunjung datang ke tempat wisata. (6) willingness to pay (wtp) adalah kesediaan membayar pengunjung desa-desa wisata. metode valuasi kontingen (contingent valuation method) adalah metode teknik survei untuk menyatakan penduduk tentang nilai atau harga yang mereka berikan terhadap komoditi yang tidak memiliki pasar seperti barang lingkungan. prinsip yang mendasari metode ini adalah bahwa orang yang mempunyai preferensi yang besar tetapi tersembunyi terhadap seluruh jenis barang lingkungan, kemudian diasumsikan bahwa orang akan bertindak nantinya seperti yang dia katakana ketika suatu hipotesis yang disodorkan kepadanya akan menjadi kenyataan pada masa yang akan datang (yakin, 1997). keunggulan-keunggulan dari penggunaan cvm yaitu: (1) sifatnya yang fleksibel dan dapat diterapkan pada beragam kekayaan lingkungan, tidak hanya terbatas pada benda atau kekayaan alam yang terukur secara nyata di pasar saja. (2) dapat diaplikasikan pada semua kondisi dan memiliki dua hal yang penting, yaitu sering kali menjadi hanya satu-satunya teknik untuk mengestimasi manfaat, dapat diaplikasikan berbagai konteks kebijakan lingkungan. (3) dapat digunakan dalam berbagai macam kesediaan untuk membayar peningkatan... (nugroho joko prasetyo, endah saptutyningsih) 131 studi barang-barang lingkungan di sekitar masyarakat. (4) dibandingkan dengan teknik penilaian yang lain, cvm memiliki kemampuan untuk mengestimasi nilai non pengguna. seseorang yang menggunakan cvm mungkin dapat mengukur utilitas dari penggunaan barang lingkungan bahkan jika digunakan secara langsung. (5) kapasitas cvm dapat menduga ''nilai non pengguna'' (non use value). (6) responden dapat dipisahkan ke dalam kelompok pengguna dan non pengguna sesuai dengan informasi yang didapatkan dari kegiatan wawancara, sehingga memungkinkan perhitungan nilai tawaran pengguna dan pengguna secara terpisah. analisis yang mempengaruhi nilai wtp perbaikan kualitas lingkungan desa-desa wisata di kabupaten sleman dilakukan dengan menggunakan analisis regresi linier berganda dengan persamaan regresi sebagai berikut: wtp = β0 + β1usi + β2pndki + β3pndptni + β4jti + β5bki + β6fki + εi 1) di mana: wtp adalah nilai wtp responden (rp); β0 adalah intersep; β1,..., β6 adalah koefisien regresi; us adalah usia (th); pndk adalah lama pendidikan (tahun); pndptn adalah tingkat pendapatan (rp); jt adalah jumlah tanggungan keluarga (orang); bk adalah biaya kunjungan (rp); fk adalah frekuensi kunjungan (kali); i adalah responden ke-1 (i = 1, 2, ..., n); ε adalah error term. pengujian terhadap data dilakukan dengan menggunakan uji validitas dan uji reliabilitas. uji validitas adalah suatu alat ukur yang menunjukkan tingkat kevalidan suatu instrumen. pengujian validitas konstruk dilakukan dengan cara mengkorelasikan skor masingmasing butir pernyataan dengan skor total, menggunakan teknik korelasi product moment. suatu butir pertanyaan dikatakan valid jika koefisien korelasi antara skor butir dengan total skor positif dan signifikan pada tingkat 5 persen. uji reliabilitas dilakukan dengan cara menghitung cronbach alpha dari masing-masing instrumen dalam suatu variabel. teknik cronbach alpha adalah suatu teknik yang menunjukkan indeks konsistensi internal yang akurat, cepat, dan ekonomis. instrumen yang dipakai memenuhi reliabilitas nilai cronbach alpha antara 0 sampai 1. semakin besar koefisien alpha (mendekati 1) maka semakin besar kepercayaan terhadap alat ukur tersebut. instrumen yang dipakai memenuhi reliabilitas jika nilai cronbach alpha > 0,6 (ghonzali, 2002). pengujian terhadap model regresi dilakukan dengan melakukan uji signifikansi uji-t dan uji-f serta melakukan pengujian terhadap asumsi klasik yaitu uji linearitas, uji multikolinearitas dan uji heteroskedastisitas. hasil dan pembahasan di dalam studi tentang faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi willingness to pay (wtp) perbaikan kualitas lingkungan desa-desa wisata pascaerupsi merapi di kabupaten sleman digunakan uji validitas. uji validitas dalam studi ini digunakan untuk menguji pertanyaan yang dipakai dalam kuesioner apakah dapat mengukur dengan cermat atau tidak yang hendak diukur. hasil uji validitas instrumen pertanyaan pada studi faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi willingness to pay (wtp) desa-desa wisata di kabupaten sleman. tabel 2 memberikan penjelasan bahwa variabel willingness to pay (wtp) memiliki skor jawaban terendah (minimum) sebesar 3000 dan skor jawaban tertinggi (maksimum) sebesar 10000. rata-rata skor jawaban dari variabel tersebut adalah 6740 dan standar deviasi 2411,327 sehingga standar deviasi lebih kecil dari ratarata. hal ini mengindikasikan bahwa sebaran data akan jawaban responden terhadap variabel wtp baik. untuk variabel usia memiliki skor minimum sebesar 3000 dan skor maksimum sebesar 49. rata-rata skor jawaban responden 32,93 dengan standar deviasi lebih kecil dari rata-rata yakni sebesar 6,317. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa sebaran data jawaban responden terhadap variabel usia baik. pada variabel pendidikan skor minimum sebesar 2 dan skor maksimum sebesar 5 dengan rata-rata 4,21 dengan standar deviasi 0,729. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa sebaran data akan jawaban responden terhadap variabel pendidikan adalah baik. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 2, oktober 2013: 127-136 132 dalam variabel pendapatan skor minimum sebesar 800.000 dan skor maksimum 3.500.000. rata-rata skor jawaban responden adalah 1.645.667 dan standar deviasi 657.939,040. karena standar deviasi lebih besar dari rata-rata maka sebaran data akan jawaban responden terhadap variabel pendapatan adalah tidak baik. variabel jumlah tanggungan keluarga memiliki skor minimum sebesar 1 dan skor maksimum sebesar 5. rata-rata skor jawaban responden sebesar 2,75 dengan standar deviasi sebesar 1,106. karena standar deviasi lebih kecil dari rata-rata jawaban responden maka sebaran data akan jawaban responden terhadap variabel tersebut baik. variabel biaya kunjungan skor minimum sebesar 50.000 dan skor maksimum sebesar 300.000. rata-rata skor jawaban responden sebesar 103.333,33 dengan standar deviasi sebesar 49.380,955. skor standar deviasi lebih kecil daripada skor rata-rata jawaban responden. hal ini mengindikasikan bahwa jawaban responden terhadap variabel biaya kunjungan adalah tidak baik. variabel frekuensi kunjungan memiliki skor minimum sebesar 1 dan skor maksimum sebesar 4. skor rata-rata jawaban responden sebesar 33 dan standar deviasi sebesar 0,781. karena skor standar deviasi lebih kecil dari skor rata-rata jawaban responden yakni 2,03, maka sebaran data jawaban responden terhadap variabel frekuensi kunjungan baik. uji multikolinearitas bertujuan untuk menguji apakah model regresi ditemukan adanya korelasi antarvariabel bebas. hasil pengujian menunjukkan bahwa tidak terjadi multikolinearitas dalam model regresi. uji heteroskedastisitas bertujuan menguji apakah dalam model regresi terjadi ketidaksamaan variance dari residual satu pengamatan ke pengamatan yang lain. untuk mendeteksi ada tidaknya heteroskedastisitas adalah dengan menggunakan uji white. kriteria yang digunakan adalah jika nilai probabilitas obs*r square yang dihasilkan lebih besar dari 5 persen, maka dapat dikatakan tidak adanya heteroskedastisitas dalam model regresi ini. nilai obs*r square memiliki nilai probabilitas sebesar 0,726941 > α = 0,05 sehingga dapat disimpulkan bahwa tidak terdapat masalah heteroskedastisitas. uji fit model digunakan untuk menguji kecocokan model dalam suatu studi. model awal yang digunakan dalam studi adalah: lnwtp = β0 + β1 lnusi + β2 lnpndki + β3 lnpndptni + β4 lnjti + β5 lnbki + β6 lnfki + εi 2) di mana: wtp adalah nilai wtp responden (rupiah); β0 adalah intersep; β1,..., β6 adalah koefisien regresi; us adalah usia (tahun); pndk adalah tingkat pendidikan (tahun); pndptn adalah tingkat pendapatan (rupiah); jt adalah jumlah tanggungan keluarga (orang); bk adalah biaya kunjungan (rupiah); fk adalah frekuensi kunjungan (kali); i adalah responden ke-1 (i = 1,2,..., n); ε adalah error term dengan menghilangkan variabel-variabel yang tidak signifikan, maka model regresi yang digunakan adalah: lnwtp = β0 + β1 lnusi + β2 lnpndki + β3 lnpndptni + β4 lnjti+ εi 3) tabel 2. deskripsi statistik variabel penelitian n minimum maximum mean std. deviation wtp (rupiah) usia (tahun) pendidikan (tahun) pendapatan (rupiah) jumlah tanggungan keluarga (orang) biaya kunjungan (rupiah) frekuensi kunjungan (kali) 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 3.000 20 2 800.000 1 50.000 1 10.000 49 5 3.500.000 5 300.000 4 6.740,00 32,93 4,21 1.645.667,00 2,75 103.333,33 2,03 2.411,327 6,317 0,729 657.939,040 1,106 49.380,955 0,781 sumber : data diolah kesediaan untuk membayar peningkatan... (nugroho joko prasetyo, endah saptutyningsih) 133 di mana: wtp adalah nilai wtp responden (rupiah); β0 adalah intersep; β1,..., β6 adalah koefisien regresi; us adalah usia (tahun); pndk adalah tingkat pendidikan (tahun); pndptn adalah tingkat pendapatan (rupiah); jt adalah jumlah tanggungan keluarga (orang) i adalah responden ke-1 (i = 1,2,...,n); ε adalah error term tabel 3. hasil regresi variabel-variabel penelitian variabel full model fit model constant 6,264** (0,000) 5,590** (0,000) ln usia 0,545** (0,000) 0,514** (0,000) ln pendidikan -0,289** (0,045) -0,287 (0,047) ln pendapatan 0,158** (0,035) 0,147** (0,048) ln jumlah tanggungan keluarga -0,350** (0,000) -0,344** (0,000) ln biaya kunjungan -0,083* (0,152) ln frekuensi kunjungan 0,035* (0,591) observation 150 adjusted r2 0,221 f-statistic 8,058 observation 150 adjusted r2 0,219 f-statistic 1,443 dependent variabel : wtp keterangan : * : signifikan pada α 10% ; ** : α 5% ; *** : α 1% uji statistik t digunakan untuk mengetahui masing-masing variabel independen secara individual berpengaruh terhadap variabel dependen. dalam studi ini, model yang digunakan adalah: lnwtp = β0 + β1 lnusi + β2 lnpndki + β3 lnpndptni + β4 lnjti+ εi 4) hasil uji t disajikan pada tabel 4. nilai konstanta (α0) = 5,590 dapat diartikan apabila semua variabel bebas (usia, pendidikan, pendapatan, jumlah tanggungan keluarga) dianggap konstan atau tidak mengalami perubahan, maka willingness to pay (wtp) dalam upaya perbaikan kualitas lingkungan desa-desa wisata di kabupaten sleman akan sebesar anti ln 5,590 atau sebesar 267,7356 kali. tabel 4. hasil uji t model coefficients tstatistic probabilitas (constant) 5,590 5,456 0,000 lnus 0,514 3,622 0,000 lnpndk -0,287 -2,002 0,047 lnpndptn 0,147 1,991 0,048 lnjt -0,344 -5,565 0,000 hipotesis nol (ho) menyebutkan bahwa usia tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap kesediaan membayar dalam upaya perbaikan kualitas lingkungan desa-desa wisata di kabupaten sleman. hipotesis alternatif menyebutkan bahwa usia berpengaruh signifikan terhadap kesediaan membayar dalam upaya perbaikan kualitas lingkungan desa-desa wisata di kabupaten sleman. nilai thitung yang diperoleh pada tabel 4 sebesar -2,002 lebih besar dari -ttabel (-1,960) dan tingkat probabilitas sebesar 0,047 < 0,05, maka h0 diterima dan ha ditolak. artinya menerima hipotesis bahwa pendidikan berpengaruh signifikan terhadap kesediaan membayar dalam upaya perbaikan kualitas lingkungan desa-desa wisata di kabupaten sleman. nilai koefisien variabel pendidikan (β2) = -0,287 berarti jika pendidikan berubah 1 persen, maka kesediaan membayar dalam upaya perbaikan kualitas lingkungan desa-desa wisata di kabupaten sleman akan mengalami perubahan sebesar 0,287 persen, asumsi variabel yang lain tetap. koefisien variabel pendidikan bernilai negatif, maka pendidikan mempunyai pengaruh negatif terhadap kesediaan membayar dalam upaya perbaikan kualitas lingkungan desa-desa wisata di kabupaten sleman. apabila pendidikan meningkat 1 persen, maka kesediaan membayar dalam upaya perbaikan kualitas lingkungan akan mengalami penurunan sebesar 0,287 persen. pendidikan yang tinggi akan tercipta suatu pemikiran yang lebih matang akan pentingnya menjaga kelestarian lingkungan, sehingga menghasilkan perubahan lingkungan yang lebih baik terhadap lingkungan alam sekitar desa-desa wisata tersebut. pendapatan tidak berpengaruh signifikan jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 2, oktober 2013: 127-136 134 terhadap kesediaan membayar dalam upaya perbaikan kualitas lingkungan desa-desa wisata di kabupaten sleman. hipotesis alternatif menyebutkan bahwa pendapatan berpengaruh signifikan terhadap kesediaan membayar dalam upaya perbaikan kualitas lingkungan desadesa wisata di kabupaten sleman. nilai thitung sebesar 1,991 lebih besar dari ttabel (1,960) dan tingkat probabilitas sebesar 0,048 < 0,05, maka ho diterima dan ha ditolak. artinya menerima hipotesis bahwa pendapatan berpengaruh signifikan terhadap kesediaan membayar dalam upaya perbaikan kualitas lingkungan desa-desa wisata di kabupaten sleman. pengujian terhadap uji statistik f diperoleh nilai fhitung sebesar 11,443 dan tingkat probabilitas sebesar 0,000. dengan taraf signifikan 95% ( = 5%) dan derajat kebebasan (db = k = 5, n-1-k = 150-1-4), maka diperoleh nilai ftabel sebesar 2,21. artinya ada pengaruh yang signifikan antara antara usia, pendidikan, pendapatan dan jumlah tanggungan keluarga secara bersama-sama terhadap kesediaan membayar dalam upaya perbaikan kualitas lingkungan desa-desa wisata di kabupaten sleman. koefisien determinasi (r2) berguna untuk mengukur kemampuan model dalam menerangkan variabel independent. nilai adjusted r square adalah sebesar 0,2420, hal ini menunjukkan 24,20 persen variasi kesediaan membayar dalam upaya perbaikan kualitas lingkungan desa-desa wisata di kabupaten sleman dijelaskan oleh variasi dari variabel bebas usia, pendidikan, pendapatan dan jumlah tanggungan keluarga. sedangkan sisanya sebesar 75,8 persen dijelaskan oleh variabel lainnya di luar model studi ini. koefisien variabel pendapatan (β3) = 0,147 berarti jika pendapatan berubah 1 persen, maka kesediaan membayar dalam upaya perbaikan kualitas lingkungan desa-desa wisata akan mengalami perubahan sebesar 0,147 persen, dengan asumsi variabel yang lain tetap. koefisien variabel pendapatan bernilai positif, maka pendapatan mempunyai pengaruh positif terhadap kesediaan membayar dalam upaya perbaikan kualitas lingkungan desa-desa wisata di kabupaten sleman. apabila pendapatan meningkat 1 persen, maka kesediaan membayar dalam upaya perbaikan kualitas lingkungan desa-desa wisata di kabupaten sleman akan mengalami peningkatan sebesar 0,147 persen. apabila pendapatan individu tinggi, maka kesediaan pengunjung untuk membayar dalam upaya perbaikan kualitas lingkungan desa-desa wisata di kabupaten sleman akan semakin tinggi. hasil ini senada dengan studi saptutyningsih (2007:171-182) yang menemukan bahwa pendapatan berpengaruh positif terjadap willingness to pay perbaikan kualitas lingkungan. jumlah tanggungan keluarga tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap kesediaan membayar dalam upaya perbaikan kualitas lingkungan desa-desa wisata di kabupaten sleman. hipotesis alternatif menyebutkan bahwa jumlah tanggungan keluarga berpengaruh signifikan terhadap kesediaan membayar dalam upaya perbaikan kualitas lingkungan desa-desa wisata di kabupaten sleman. nilai thitung sebesar -5,565 lebih besar dari ttabel (-1,960) dan tingkat probabilitas sebesar 0,000 < 0,05, maka h0 diterima dan ha ditolak. artinya menerima hipotesis bahwa jumlah tanggungan keluarga berpengaruh signifikan terhadap kesediaan membayar dalam upaya perbaikan kualitas lingkungan desa-desa wisata di kabupaten sleman. nilai koefisien variabel jumlah tanggungan keluarga (β4) = -0,344, berarti jika jumlah tanggungan keluarga berubah 1 persen, maka kesediaan membayar dalam upaya perbaikan kualitas lingkungan desa-desa wisata akan mengalami perubahan sebesar 0,344 persen, asumsi variabel tetap. koefisien jumlah tanggungan keluarga bernilai negatif, maka jumlah tanggungan keluarga mempunyai pengaruh negatif terhadap kesediaan membayar dalam upaya perbaikan kualitas lingkungan desa-desa wisata di kabupaten sleman. apabila jumlah tanggungan keluarga meningkat 1 persen, maka kesediaan membayar dalam upaya perbaikan kualitas lingkungan desa-desa wisata akan mengalami penurunan sebesar 0,344 persen. jumlah tanggungan keluarga yang tinggi akan menyebabkan rendahnya kemam-puan membayar dalam upaya perbaikan kualitas lingkungan desa-desa wisata di kabupaten sleman karena faktor biaya yang dimiliki sudah teralokasikan untuk keluarga. kesediaan untuk membayar peningkatan... (nugroho joko prasetyo, endah saptutyningsih) 135 simpulan hasil studi di atas dapat memberikan kita kesimpulan bahwa: (1) variabel usia berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap kemampuan membayar dalam upaya perbaikan kualitas lingkungan desa-desa wisata di kabupaten sleman paska erupsi merapi. semakin bertambahnya usia seseorang, maka pola pikir dalam menggali ilmu pengetahuan semakin mendalam serta tingkat kepedulian akan pentingnya menjaga dan melindungi lingkungan alam dan lingkungan masyarakat sekitar akan meningkat. (2) variabel pendidikan berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap kesediaan membayar dalam upaya perbaikan kualitas lingkungan desa-desa wisata di kabupaten sleman pascaerupsi merapi. pendidikan yang tinggi akan tercipta suatu pemikiran yang lebih matang akan pentingnya menjaga kelestarian lingkungan, sehingga menghasilkan perubahan lingkungan yang lebih baik terhadap lingkungan alam sekitar desa-desa wisata tersebut. (3) variabel pendapatan berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap kesediaan membayar dalam upaya perbaikan kualitas lingkungan desa-desa wisata di kabupaten sleman pasca erupsi merapi. dengan pendapatan yang tinggi maka kesediaan pengunjung untuk membayar dalam upaya perbaikan kualitas lingkungan desa-desa wisata di kabupaten sleman akan semakin tinggi. (4) variabel jumlah tanggungan keluarga berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap kesediaan membayar dalam upaya perbaikan kualitas lingkungan desa-desa wisata di kabupaten sleman. jumlah tanggungan keluarga yang tinggi akan menyebabkan rendahnya kemampuan membayar dalam upaya perbaikan kualitas lingkungan desa-desa wisata di kabupaten sleman karena faktor biaya yang dimiliki sudah teralokasikan untuk keluarga. saran. pascaerupsi merapi memberikan dampak negatif terhadap sektor pariwisata terutama berkurangnya kualitas lingkungan dan mengakibatkan tingkat kunjungan wisata desadesa wisata yang terdapat di kabupaten sleman juga menurun. oleh karena itu untuk memperbaiki kualitas lingkungan tersebut diperlukan kerjasama antara pengelola desa-desa wisata, masyarakat sekitar, wisatawan dan pemerintah dalam hal sosialisasi dan promosi untuk meningkatkan kualitas lingkungan khususnya di desa-desa wisata yang terdapat di kabupaten sleman. usia berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap kesediaan membayar dalam upaya perbaikan kualitas lingkungan. pihak pengelola wisata disarankan menggunakan segmentasi pasar pariwisata yang ditujukan kepada pengunjung yang sudah dewasa, sehingga akan menaikkan nilai willingness to pay. pendapatan berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap kesediaan membayar dalam upaya perbaikan kualitas lingkungan. pendapatan yang tinggi akan terdapat beberapa kemungkinan yakni pengunjung akan memilih tempat yang lain untuk dikunjungi, sehingga perlu pengembangan daya tarik wisata untuk menambah minat pengunjung berkunjung kembali. dalam studi ini, variasi kesediaan membayar dalam upaya perbaikan kualitas lingkungan sebesar 24,20 persen dijelaskan oleh variasi dari variabel usia, pendidikan, pendapatan, jumlah tanggungan keluarga. sedangkan sisanya sebesar 75,8 persen dijelaskan oleh variabel lainnya di luar model studi ini. diharapkan untuk peneliti selanjutnya untuk menambah variabel lainnya. daftar pustaka amanda, sylvia. (2009). analisis willingness to pay pengunjung obyek wisata danau situgede dalam upaya pelestarian lingkungan. skripsi. bogor: institut pertanian bogor. diniyati, dian dan achmad, budiman. (2007). analisis manfaat ekonomi ekowisata sekitar danau toba. jurnal inovasi: vol. 4, no. 1, maret 2007. media litbang provinsi sumatera utara. fauzi, a. (2004). ekonomi sumberdaya alam dan lingkungan. jakarta: pt. gramedia pustaka utama. fauzi, a. (2006). ekonomi sumberdaya alam dan lingkungan. jakarta: gramedia pustaka utama. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 2, oktober 2013: 127-136 136 fembriati e., dkk. (2011). kesediaan membayar petani kopi untuk perbaikan lingkungan. jurnal ekonomi pembangunan: vol. 2, no. 2, desember 2011:187-199. graaff, de, dkk. (2005). the willingness to pay (wtp) for facilities at the amsterdam zuidas. tinbergen institute discussion paper. hanindha, ratri. m. (2008). analisis willingness to pay (wtp) pengunjung terhadap upaya pelestarian kawasan situ babakan, srengseng sawah, jakarta selatan. skripsi. bogor: institut pertanian bogor. inskeep, edward. (1991). tourism planning an integrated and sustainable development approach. new york: van nostrand reinhold. iswitardiyanto, andi. (2011). valuasi ekonomi wisata pantai kuwaru dengan tcm dan cvm kabupaten bantul. tesis. yogyakarta: universitas gadjah mada. mirad, riko. (2009). upaya pengembangan obyek wisata di kabupaten simeuleu di kabupaten karo. skripsi. nababan, tongam. (2008). aplikasi willingness to pay sebagai proksi terhadap variabel harga: suatu model empirik dalam estimasi permintaan energi listrik rumah tangga. jurnal organisasi dan manajemen: vol. 4, no. 2, september 2008. nursusandhari, eva. (2009). persepsi, preferensi, dan willingness to pay masyarakat terhadap lingkungan pemukiman sekitar kawasan industri (kasus kawasan industri di kelurahan utama, cimahi, jawa barat). skripsi. fakultas ekonomi dan manajemen. institut pertanian bogor. bogor. nuryanti, wiendu. (1993). concept, perspective and challenges, makalah bagian dari laporan konferensi internasional mengenai pariwisata budaya. yogyakarta: gadjah mada university press:2-3 (www. wikipedia.org). saptutyningsih, e. (2007). faktor-faktor yang berpengaruh terhadap willingness to pay untuk perbaikan kualitas air sungai code di kota yogyakarta. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vo. 8 no.2 oktober 2007:171-182. setyorini, timang. (2004). kebijakan pariwisata dalam rangka meningkatkan pendapatan ekonomi masyarakat kabupaten semarang. tesis. program magister ilmu hukum. semarang: universitas diponegoro. sisca, erni. (2006). analisis ekonomi manfaat ekosistem terumbu karang di pulau ternate provinsi maluku utara. tesis. bogor: institut pertanian bogor. syakya. (2005). analisis willingness to pay (wtp) dan strategi pengembangan objek wisata pantai lampuuk di nangroe aceh darussalam.” tesis. sekolah pascasarjana. bogor: institut pertanian bogor. yakin, a. (1997). ekonomi sumberdaya dan lingkungan: teori dan kebijaksanaan pembangunan berkelanjutan. jakarta: akademika presindo. yoel, ediy (2008). analisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi pdrb sektor pariwisata di kabupaten karo. skripsi. universitas sumatera utara. yoeti, a. (2008). ekonomi pariwisata, introduksi, informasi dan implementasi. jakarta: kompas. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015, hlm.119-131 export diversification and economic growth in asean sunaryati faculty of islamic economics and business, sunan kalijaga state islamic university jln. marsda adisucipto, yogyakarta, daerah istimewa yogyakarta 55281, indonesia phone: +62 274 589621. correspondence e-mail: s_nartie@yahoo.com received: december 2014; accepted: september 2015 abstract: this paper tries to assess empirically the relationship between export diversification and economic growth on selected countries in asean. using annual data or time-series over the period 1989 to 2010 and econometric techniques (granger causality and cointegration) are applied to test the relationship between export diversification and economic growth. the result show that, in case of indonesia and malaysia, there are exist uni-directional causality from gdp to export diversification. for singapore and thailand, the results show that there are no causal relationship between export diversification and economic growth. keywords: export diversification, economic growth, causality, asean jel classification: f13, f43, o40 abstrak: tulisan ini mencoba mengkaji secara empiris hubungan antara diversifikasi ekspor dan pertumbuhan ekonomi di negara yang dipilih di asean. dengan menggunakan data tahunan atau time series selama periode 1989 sampai 2010 dan teknik ekonometrik (granger kausalitas dan kointegrasi) yang diterapkan untuk menguji hubungan antara diversifikasi ekspor dan pertumbuhan ekonomi. hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa, dalam kasus indonesia dan malaysia, ada ada uni-directional kausalitas dari pdb untuk ekspor diversifikasi. untuk singapura dan thailand, hasil menunjukkan bahwa tidak ada hubungan sebab akibat antara diversifikasi ekspor dan pertumbuhan ekonomi. kata kunci: diversifikasi ekspor, pertumbuhan ekonomi, kausalitas, asean klasifikasi jel: f13, f43, o40 introduction the dependence on primary-product exports has been frequently mentioned as one of the main features of developing nations. as stated by todaro and smith (2006), less developed countries (ldcs) tend to specialize in the production of primary products, instead of secondary and tertiary activities. consequently, exports of primary products play a very significant role in terms of foreign exchange generation in these countries, traditionally representing a significant share of their gross national product. specially in the case of the non-mineral primary products exports, markets and prices are frequently unstable, leading to a high degree of exposure to risk and uncertainty for the countries that rely on them (todaro and smith 2006). primary-products exports have been characterized by relatively low income elasticity of demand and inelastic price elasticity, being fuels, certain raw materials, and manufactured goods, some exceptions that exhibit relatively high income elasticity (todaro and smith, 2006). taking these arguments into account, the cause for export diversification has been commonly supported based on the so-called “export instability argument”. consequently, export diversification has been proposed as a policy mechanism seeking to stabilize export earnings, which would be especially required in those developing countries where the share of commodities in its export basket is particularly pronounced. this situation is additionally complijurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015: 119-131120 cated by the fact that many of the ldcs have incurred in deficits on their balance of payments, due to their import demands of capital goods, intermediate goods, and consumer products that their industrial expansion requires. furthermore, ldcs are usually more dependent on trade than developed nations, in terms of its share in national income. export diversification entails changing the composition of a country’s export mix, being it “directly related to the structure of the economy and how it changes as development proceeds”. the underlying consideration behind export diversification as a possible developmental strategy is related to the expectation of achieving stability-oriented and growth-oriented policy objectives (ali et al. 1991). a broader exports base, coupled with a special promotion of those commodities with positive price trends, should be beneficial for growth. hence, the value-added export commodities would be stimulated, by means of additional processing and marketing activities. a country’s degree of diversification is usually considered as dependent upon the number of commodities within its export mix, as well as on the distribution of their individual shares. the united nations economic and social commission for asia and the pacific (escap) has stated that for small, low-income economies such as the least developed countries (ldcs), reasonable development goals cannot be limited to primary products exports. diversification, both in terms of “non-traditional” and “traditional” commodities, is considered as an element of utmost importance for growth and development (escap 2004). it has also been frequently stated that growth and export diversification may be linked. besides structural changes of an economy, as al-marhubi (2000) points out, traditional development models propose that economic growth also implies a shift from dependence on primary exports towards diversified manufactured exports. another interesting concept is linked to the socalled “graduation concept” addressed by empirical studies such as the ones conducted by michaely (1977) and moschos (1989). it suggests that the process of “graduation” from developing to developed status should be joined by a structural change of exports toward diversity (amin gutierrez de pineres and ferrantino, 1997a). this would suggest that the connection between exports and growth enters, when a certain level of development is attained. against this background, this study intends to examine the impact of export diversification (dx) on economic growth in selected asean economies. particularly, to examine the relationship between dx and economic growth. the relation between export diversification and economic growth has been analyzed in a wide number of empirical studies. the possible influence of export diversification on growth is examined by amin gutierrez de pineres and ferrantino (1997a), by analyzing the chilean experience within the period 1962–1991. they study the possible link between diversification, export growth and aggregate development, by constructing different measures of diversification and structural change in exports. these measures are afterward used to test different relationships among the structure of exports and export growth. two different interesting findings are reported: first of all, a link between the domestic economic performance and diversification is reported, suggesting that diversification in chile has taken place mostly during times of internal crisis or external shock. secondly, that the new products most successfully introduced in that country were mainly primary products (such as tobacco, coffee and tea, and dairy products) while a number of manufactures (like plastics, manufactured fertilizers, electrical and non-electrical machinery) have shown less dynamism. their study also proposed that export diversification, in the long run, has boosted chilean growth performance. al-marhubi (2000) conducts an empirical study of 91 countries, in the 1961–1988 periods, to test the hypothesis of a possible link between export diversification and growth. he finds out that those economies with a larger number of export products experienced faster growth. besides that, he argues that greater export diversification and lower export concentration is associated with faster growth. the relationship between export diversification and growth proved to be economically large. he also concludes that when export diversification occurs, growth in developing countries is positively export diversification and economic growth...(sunaryati) 121 influenced by stimulating the accumulation of capital. agosin’s study (2006) investigates whether export diversification has any explanatory power in a standard empirical model of growth. cross-sectional data in the 1980–2003 periods is considered, for a sample of asean and latin american countries. it is suggested that export growth by itself does not appear to be relevant for growth, while export growth together with diversification appears to be relevant. this argument is supported by the fact that the interactive variable (measuring diversification and export growth) showed the expected sign and was highly significant, providing the strongest explanatory power. export diversification is supposed to contribute to growth through two different channels, namely, the “portfolio effect” – less export volatilityand the widening of comparative advantages, as a result of a more diversified economy. klinger and lederman (2004) estimating the herfindahl index on the log of income per capita and its squared term find a nonlinear relationship which suggests that countries diversify their export structure up to some point in their development after which get more concentrated in their exports. to test whether the change brings higher growth rate, the squared term of the herfindahl index is added into the regression. so in another estimation of the growth rate the squared term of the herfindahl index will be added as an explanatory variable. the finding of a u-shaped relation of export concentration on economic growth would mean that for some countries export concentration is more beneficial than diversification. hesse (2008) together with the world bank’s commission on growth and development using the system gmm estimator for a sample of 99 countries and herfindahl index of export concentration studies the impact of export concentration on economic growth of countries based on augmented solow model in the period of 1961-2000. adding the squared term of the index he finds some evidence of nonlinearity in the relationship, but the coefficients on the squared index are not significant in the work. theoretical framework. export dependency on primary products of a country can be reduced through diversification of the export portfolio. however, export diversification can take place in different forms and dimensions and thus its analysis can be undertaken at different levels. usually, by changing the shares of commodities in the existing export mix, or by including new commodities in the export portfolio, a country can attain export diversification. in this context, there are two well-known forms of export diversification that are common in the trade literature, namely, horizontal and vertical diversification. while horizontal diversification entails alteration of the primary export mix in order to neutralize the volatility of global commodity prices, vertical diversification involves contriving further uses for existing and new innovative commodities by means of valueadded ventures such as processing and marketing. it is expected that vertical diversification could augment market prospects for raw materials that may compliment economic growth and thus lead to further stability as processed commodities tend to have more stable prices than raw materials. export diversification can be categorized into two types, the horizontal diversification and vertical diversification. the former refers to diversity of product across different type of industry, while the latter covers diversity of product within the same industry—i.e. valueadded ventures in further downstream activities. both type of diversification is expected to positively induce economic growth (kenji & mengistu, 2009). there are many way through which export diversification promotes economic growth. export diversification could positively affect economic growth by reducing the dependency on limited number of commodities (herzer and nowak-lehmann, 2006). this argument is particularly true in the case of commodity-dependent developing countries, where overdependence on agricultural sector could—according to the prebisch-singer thesis—reduce the terms of trade. the basic reason for this due to hesse (2008) is the high degree of price volatility of commodity products. another way of illustrating the dynamic effect of export diversification on growth is by linking the connection between these two variables based on modern theory vis-à-vis the classical trade theory. based on the modern trade jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015: 119-131122 theory, there are three main features of modern market behaviour. first, the increasing dynamic features of production factors and national policies to influence the production capacity to grow with increasing return. second, the expansions of trade model from perfect competition to the imperfect competition especially the monopolistic competition. this is partially related to the first factor, whereby increasing intensity of trade liberalization among nations and mobilization of production factors have enable firms in one country to expand their production without being constrained by diminishing return krugman & obstfeld (2003). this arguments—in contrast to the classical trade theory—implies that could involve in various production activities without confining to their comparative advantage (arip, yee, & karim, 2010). while the aforementioned two factors explain the market behaviour from the supply side, the third characteristic of modern trade theory is attributed to the demand side. this is reflected by domestic market peculiarities across different countries, which are not fixed and varies in various aspects such as taste, average income, knowledge, gender, age, culture and geographical division. while production in each particular country tries to meets unique characteristic of domestic market demand, it also enters symmetrically into the international market demand and subsequently offers the market with goods and services, which are different in the form of functionalities, taste, design, ingredient, quality, and appearances. this is termed as the home market´ effects on the pattern of trade by krugman (1980). according to krugman (1980) a country tends to export those goods for which they have relatively large domestic market. research method empirical framework this paper use time-series techniques of cointegration and granger causality tests to examine the long-run relationship and dynamic interactions among the variables of interest. since these methods are now well known, we mention only those aspects that are relevant in our study. firstly, for proper model specification, we conduct the unit root and cointegration tests. we apply group unit root test, such as: levin, lin and chu t (assumes common unit root process), lm, pesaran and shin w-stat, augmented dickey-fuller (adf) and phillipsperron (pp) unit root tests (assumes individual unit root process) for determining the variables orders of integration. then, to test for cointegration, we employ a vector autoregressive (var) based approach of johansen (1988) and johansen & juselius (1990), henceforth the jj cointegration test. since the results of the jj cointegration test tend to be sensitive to the order of var, following hall (1989) and johansen (1992), we specify the lag length that renders the error terms serially uncorrelated. having implemented unit root and cointegration tests, we proceed to specification and estimation of granger causality. in particular, the findings that the variables are non-stationary and are not cointegrated suggest the use of granger causality of var model in first differences. however, if they are cointegrated, a vector error correction model (vecm) or a level var can be used (engle & granger, 1987: 251276). according to granger representation theorem, for any cointegrated series, error correction term must be included in the model. engle & granger (1987) and toda & phillips (1993) indicate that omitting this error correction term (ect) in the model, leads to model misspecification. through the ect, the ecm opens up an additional channel for granger-causality to emerge that is completely ignored by the standard granger and sims tests (masih, a. m. m. & masih, r; 1999). utilizing vecm procedure permits us to make a distinction between the shortand longrun forms of granger-causality. the short-run causality is determined by the significance of the f-test or chi-square statistics of the differenced independent variables while the long-run causality is determined by the significance of ttest of the lagged ect. the non-significance of both the t and-tests in the vecm indicates econometric exogeneity of the dependent variable (masih and masih, 1999). the vecm can then be simply reformulated in matrix form as follows: export diversification and economic growth...(sunaryati) 123 0 1 12 3 k i i t k gdp gdp dx dx emp emp cap cap                                                  0 1 2 31t gdp v dx v emp v cap v                           (1) where gdp is gross domestic product, dx is export diversification index, emp is employment, and cap is capital expenditure. data description the data used in this study are annual data for the period of 1989 to 2010.the data set is compiled into a panel data from sources as the international financial statistics of the imf, the world integrated trade solution of the world bank and the key indicators of the asean development bank (adb). in this paper, the focal variables are gross domestic product (gdp) and the export diversification index (dx). however focusing on these two variables in a bivariate context may not be satisfactory since they may be driven by common factors thus the results will be misleading. following herzer and nowak-lehmann (2006), we also include capital expenditure (cap) and the number of people employed (emp) as control variables. export diversification is held to be important for developing countries because many developing countries are often highly dependent on relatively few primary commodities for their export earning. unstable prices of their commodities may subject a developing country exporter to serious terms of trade shocks. since the covariation in individual commodity prices is less than perfect, diversification into new primary export product is generally view as appositive development. the strongest positive effect are normally associated with diversification into manufactured goods, and its benefit include higher and more stable export earnings, job creation, and learning effects and the development of new skills and infrastructure that would facilitate the development of even newer export product. the export diversification index (dx) for a country is defined as:   2/iijj xhsumdx  (2) where hij is the share of commodity i in the total exports of country j and xi is the share of the commodity in world exports. the related measure used by unctad is the concentration index or hirschman (h) index, which is calculated using the shares of all three-digit products in a country’s exports:                2 t j x x sumsqrth (3) where xi is country j’s export in product i (at three digit classification) and xt is country j’s total export. the index has been normalized to account for the number of three digit product that could be exported. thus, maximum value of the index is 239 (the number of individual three digit products in sitc revision 2), and its minimum (theoretical value) is zero, for country with no export. the lower the index, the less concentrated are country’s export. results and discussion unit root tests in order to obtain credible and robust results for any conventional regression analysis, the data to be analyzed should be stationary. hence, to test for stationarity, the levin, lin,& chu, the im, pesaran and shin w-stat, the adf and pp tests are performed based on model with constant and no trend. table 1-4 (see appendix) reports group unit root tests statistics that examine the presence of unit roots (non-stationary) for all variables in each country. the levin, lin & chu, the im, pesaran and shin w-stat, the adf and pp tests agree in classifying dx, gdp, emp and cap as i(1) variables, i.e., they are non-stationary in level but become stationary after first differencing. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015: 119-131124 cointegration tests in order to capture dynamic relationship among the observed variables, their cointegration relationship was tested trough multivariate methodology proposed by johansen (1990) and johansen and juselius (1991). johansen (1991) modeled time series as a reduced rank regressions in which they computed the maximum likelihood estimates in the multivariate cointegration model with gaussians errors. the advantage of this technique is that it allows one to draw a conclusion about the number of cointegrating relationship among observed variables. since all the data series in the model were integrated processes of order one or i(1), the linear combination (cointegrating vectors) of one or more of these series may exhibit long run relationship. the maximum eigenvalue test and trace test was employed to established the number of cointegrating vectors. the results are presented in table 5 – 8 (see appendix). the optimal lag length (p) is determined using schwartz information criterion (sic), which indicates an optimal lag length of one year. in the case of indonesia, malaysia and thailand, the result of trace test and maximum eigenvalue test both indicate that, there is one cointegrating vector at 5% level of significance. for singapore, the result of trace test and maximum eigenvalue test both indicate that, there is two cointegrating vector at 5% level of significance. granger causality tests as discussed above that there is co-integration between the variables, so the next step is to test for the direction of causality using the vector error correction model. firstly, we present the traditional granger causality results for each country as in table 9 – 12 (see appendix). in case of indonesia, the result in table 9 show that gdp does granger cause dx at7% level of significance. so, there is exist unidirectional causality from gdp to export diversification. for malaysia, the estimation result indicated that we reject the null hypothesis of “gdp does not granger cause dx” and conclude that there is exists uni-directional causality between economic growth and export diversification at the 1% level of significance. table 11 & 12 show estimation result for singapore and thailand. the result indicate that we cannot reject both of the ho of “gdp does not granger cause dx” and the ho of “dx does not granger cause gdp” at 5% level of significance. therefore, we accept the ho, and conclude that gdp does not granger cause export diversification and export diversification does not granger cause gdp. in other word, we can say that both variables are independent. vector error correction model in order to check the stability of the model we have estimated the vector error correction (vec) model. the results of vec model are presented in table 13 – 16 (see appendix). for indonesia, the results indicate that the error correction term for gdp bears the correct sign i.e. it is negative and statistically significant at 5 percent significant level, implying that there exist a long run causality running from export diversification to gdp. meanwhile, in case of malaysia, coefficient of error term with export diversification as dependent variable is statistically significant, yet the sign is positive (not correct). this finding is in accordance with result of cointegration test implying that only one cointegration equation running in the long run. for singapore (table 15), we know that coefficient of error term with gdp as dependent variable is statistically significant, but the sign is positive (not correct). otherwise, coefficient of error term with export diversification as dependent variable is not significant. these results suggest that no long run relationship between export diversification and economic growth. in case of thailand, both of the coefficient of error term with gdp (dx) as dependent variable are not statistically significant, implying that no long run relationship between export diversification and economic growth, vice versa (table 16). conclusion the paper tries to assess empirically, the relationship between export diversification and economic growth in selected asean econoexport diversification and economic growth...(sunaryati) 125 mies (indonesia, malaysia, singapore and thailand) using annual data over the period 1989 to 2010. the unit root properties of the data were examined using group unit root test, such as: levin, lin and chu t (assumes common unit root process), lm, pesaran and shin w-stat, augmented dickey-fuller (adf) and phillips-perron (pp) unit root tests (assumes individual unit root process) after which the cointegration and causality tests were conducted. the error correction models were also estimated in order to examine the short –run dynamics. the major findings include the following: the unit root tests clarified that all variables (dx, gdp, emp and cap) are non stationary at the level data but found stationary at the first difference. therefore, for all countries, the series were found to be integrated of order one. furthermore, cointegration tests indicate that there exists a long run equilibrium relationship between exports diversification and gdp in all countries as confirmed by johansen cointegration test results. the granger causality test finally confirmed that in case of indonesia and malaysia, there are exist uni-directional causality from gdp to export diversification. for singapore and thailand, the results show that there are no causal relationship between export diversification and economic growth. references agosin, m. p. (2007). export diversification and growth in emerging economies, working paper no.233. universidad de chile: departmento de economia. al marhubi, f. a. (2000). export diversification and growth: an empirical investigation. applied economics letters, 7, 559-562. amin gutiérrez de piñeres, sheila, and michael j. ferrantino. (1997a). export diversification and structural change: some comparisons for latin america. the international executive, vol. 39 no. 4, july/august, 465-477. arip, mohammad aendy, yee, lau sim and abdul karim, bakri. (2010). export diversification and economic growth in malaysia, mpraworking paper no. 20588. asean development bank. key indicator for asia and pacific, (2011). engle, r. f., & granger, c. w. j. (1987). cointegration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing. econometrica, 55, 251-276 hall, s. g. (1989). maximum likelihood estimation of cointegrating vectors: an example of johansen’s procedure. oxford bulletin of economics and statistics, 51, 213-218. hesse, h. (2008). export diversification and economic growth, working paper no. 21. the commission on growth and development. herzer, d., & lehmann, n. (2006). what does export diversification do for a growth? an econometric analysis. applied economic letters, 38(15), 1825-1838. international monetary fund. (2012). world economic outlook database. johansen, s. and juselius, k. (1990). maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration with applications to the demand for money. oxford bulletin of economics and statistics. kenji, y., & mengistu, a. a. (2009). the impacts of vertical and horizontal export diversification on growth: an empirical study on factors explaining the gap between subsahara africa and east asia's performances. ritsumeikan international affair, 17, 41. klinger, bailey and daniel lederman. (2004): discovery and development: an empirical exploration of “new” products. policy research working paper no. 3450, world bank, november. krugman, p. (1980). scale economies, product differentiation, and the pattern of trade. the american economic review, 70(5), 950. krugman, p., & obstfeld, d. 2003). international economics: theory and policy (754, trans. 6th ed.). boston: pearson education, inc. masih, a. m. m., & masih, r. (1999). are asean stock market fluctuations due mainly to intraregional contagion effects? jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015: 119-131126 evidence based on asean emerging stock markets, pacific-basin finance journal, 7, 251-282. michaely, m. (1977). exports and growth: an empirical investigation. journal of development economics 4: 49-53. moschos, d. (1989). export expansion, growth and the level of economic development: an empirical analysis. journal of development economics, 30: 93-102. toda, h. y., & phillips, p. c. b. (1993). vector autoregression and causality. econometrica, 59, 229-255. world bank. (2011). the world integrated trade solution: trade indicator. appendix table 1. group unit root test results: indonesia series: dx, gdp, emp, cap method level first difference t-statistic prob t-statistic prob null: unit root (assumes common unit root process) levin, lin & chu t* 1.38054 0.9163 -8.51243 0.0000 null: unit root (assumes individual unit root process) im, pesaran and shin w-stat 2.81844 0.9976 -7.40062 0.0000 adf 7.73178 0.4601 56.7549 0.0000 pp 8.41325 0.3942 56.7549 0.0000 table 2. group unit root test results: malaysia series: dx, gdp, emp, cap method level first difference t-statistic prob t-statistic prob null: unit root (assumes common unit root process) levin, lin & chu t* -1.11401 0.1326 -4.82959 0.0000 null: unit root (assumes individual unit root process) im, pesaran and shin w-stat 1.02228 0.8467 -4.89022 0.0000 adf 7.75127 0.4581 37.6187 0.0000 pp 10.5651 0.2276 123.700 0.0000 table 3. group unit root test results: singapore series: dx, gdp, emp, cap method level first difference t-statistic prob t-statistic prob null: unit root (assumes common unit root process) levin, lin & chu t* 2.03497 0.9791 -5.04562 0.0000 null: unit root (assumes individual unit root process) im, pesaran and shin w-stat 1.20923 0.8867 -4.62690 0.0000 adf 5.76144 0.4504 30.2135 0.0000 pp 4.45428 0.6154 30.1992 0.0000 export diversification and economic growth...(sunaryati) 127 table 4. group unit root test results: thailand series: dx, gdp, emp, cap method level first difference t-statistic prob t-statistic prob levin, lin & chu t* -1.34370 0.0895 -6.46399 0.0000 im, pesaran and shin w-stat 0.33412 0.6309 -5.77053 0.0000 adf 18.3928 0.0185 44.0740 0.0000 pp 39.0924 0.0000 41.2199 0.0000 table 5. johansen cointegration tests: indonesia ho eigenvalue trace lmax stat 5% cv stat 5% cv r = 0 0.682765 45.54770 47.85613 22.96226 27.58434 r ≤ 1 0.467131 22.58544 29.79707 12.58959 21.13162 r ≤ 2 0.242084 9.995853 15.49471 5.543660 14.26460 r ≤ 3 0.199573 4.452193* 3.841466 4.452193* 3.841466 * denote rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level table 6. johansen cointegration tests: malaysia ho eigenvalue trace lmax stat 5% cv stat 5% cv r = 0 0.818141 56.39197* 47.85613 34.09049* 27.58434 r ≤ 1 0.492489 22.30147 29.79707 13.56476 21.13162 r ≤ 2 0.326337 8.736718 15.49471 7.900492 14.26460 r ≤ 3 0.040949 0.836226 3.841466 0.836226 3.841466 * denote rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level table 7. johansen cointegration tests: singapore ho eigenvalue trace lmax stat 5% cv stat 5% cv r = 0 0.942077 93.11025* 47.85613 56.97270* 27.58434 r ≤ 1 0.766412 36.13754* 29.79707 29.08390* 21.13162 r ≤ 2 0.210727 7.053644 15.49471 4.732864 14.26460 r ≤ 3 0.109560 2.320780 3.841466 2.320780 3.841466 * denote rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level table 8. johansen cointegration tests: thailand ho eigenvalue trace lmax stat 5% cv stat 5% cv r = 0 0.916553 76.38329* 47.85613 49.67098* 27.58434 r ≤ 1 0.500053 26.71231 29.79707 13.86506 21.13162 r ≤ 2 0.339926 12.84725 15.49471 8.308081 14.26460 r ≤ 3 0.203046 4.539165* 3.841466 4.539165* 3.841466 * denote rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015: 119-131128 table 9. granger causality for indonesia null hypothesis f-statistic prob. gdp does not granger cause dx 3.01597 0.0793 dx does not granger cause gdp 1.06480 0.3695 emp does not granger cause dx 1.64810 0.2254 dx does not granger cause emp 1.22905 0.3204 cap does not granger cause dx 0.13425 0.8754 dx does not granger cause cap 6.65131 0.0086 emp does not granger cause gdp 0.34151 0.7161 gdp does not granger cause emp 3.85788 0.0445 cap does not granger cause gdp 0.29567 0.7483 gdp does not granger cause cap 1.03967 0.3777 cap does not granger cause emp 2.14397 0.1517 emp does not granger cause cap 0.99266 0.3937 table 10. granger causality for malaysia null hypothesis f-statistic prob. gdp does not granger cause dx 7.21723 0.0064 dx does not granger cause gdp 3.38096 0.0614 emp does not granger cause dx 1.53117 0.2482 dx does not granger cause emp 3.26980 0.0663 cap does not granger cause dx 1.26801 0.3099 dx does not granger cause cap 2.27514 0.1371 emp does not granger cause gdp 0.08095 0.9226 gdp does not granger cause emp 0.46893 0.6345 cap does not granger cause gdp 0.53113 0.5986 gdp does not granger cause cap 1.77218 0.2037 cap does not granger cause emp 1.08786 0.3621 emp does not granger cause cap 2.32784 0.1317 table 11. granger causality for singapore null hypothesis f-statistic prob. gdp does not granger cause dx 1.66455 0.2224 dx does not granger cause gdp 0.03033 0.9702 emp does not granger cause dx 4.40316 0.0313 dx does not granger cause emp 1.40753 0.2753 cap does not granger cause dx 0.00607 0.9940 dx does not granger cause cap 0.44175 0.6510 emp does not granger cause gdp 7.12420 0.0067 gdp does not granger cause emp 6.81873 0.0078 cap does not granger cause gdp 2.77988 0.0940 gdp does not granger cause cap 1.20639 0.3267 cap does not granger cause emp 0.27677 0.7620 emp does not granger cause cap 0.91121 0.4232 table 12. granger causality for thailand null hypothesis f-statistic prob. gdp does not granger cause dx 0.20142 0.8197 dx does not granger cause gdp 0.24089 0.7889 emp does not granger cause dx 0.24266 0.7876 dx does not granger cause emp 1.57467 0.2395 cap does not granger cause dx 0.75143 0.4886 dx does not granger cause cap 1.02536 0.3825 emp does not granger cause gdp 2.70578 0.0992 export diversification and economic growth...(sunaryati) 129 gdp does not granger cause emp 3.21703 0.0688 cap does not granger cause gdp 2.04691 0.1637 gdp does not granger cause cap 1.03142 0.3805 cap does not granger cause emp 4.14514 0.0369 emp does not granger cause cap 0.07895 0.9245 table 13. multivariate granger causality tests based on vecm: indonesia variables d(gdp) d(dx) d(emp) d(cap) ecm -0.837089* -3.21e-05 -0.004431 -125.2820 (0.08507) (9.9e-05) (0.01048) (145.899) [-9.84034] [-0.32401] [-0.42286] [-0.85869] d(gdp(-1)) 0.433721 -8.87e-05 0.009173 61.08693 (0.12778) (0.00015) (0.01574) (219.148) [ 3.39440] [-0.59584] [ 0.58280] [ 0.27875] d(gdp(-2)) 0.433905 0.000387 0.015576 346.1866 (0.10803) (0.00013) (0.01331) (185.290) [ 4.01636] [ 3.07488] [ 1.17038] [ 1.86835] d(dx(-1)) 212.8895 0.029009 -8.544325 -929034.5 (244.096) (0.28453) (30.0690) (418649.) [ 0.87215] [ 0.10196] [-0.28416] [-2.21912] d(dx(-2)) -208.3858 0.286727 6.301253 -533728.0 (288.695) (0.33651) (35.5629) (495141.) [-0.72182] [ 0.85206] [ 0.17719] [-1.07793] d(emp(-1)) -35.88820 -0.003854 -0.761148 -4442.481 (4.13899) (0.00482) (0.50986) (7098.79) [-8.67076] [-0.79888] [-1.49285] [-0.62581] d(emp(-2)) -32.21117 -0.005264 -0.004763 -2191.842 (3.25034) (0.00379) (0.40039) (5574.66) [-9.91010] [-1.38950] [-0.01189] [-0.39318] d(cap(-1)) 0.000745 1.70e-07 2.65e-05 0.019336 (0.00018) (2.1e-07) (2.2e-05) (0.30883) [ 4.13524] [ 0.81010] [ 1.19610] [ 0.06261] d(cap(-2)) 0.000672 3.46e-08 1.00e-05 -0.021338 (0.00017) (1.9e-07) (2.0e-05) (0.28533) [ 4.04006] [ 0.17852] [ 0.48984] [-0.07478] notes: standard errors in () &t-statistic in [] table 14. multivariate granger causality tests based on vecm: malaysia variables d(gdp) d(dx) d(emp) d(cap) ecm -0.106100 0.000351* 0.001219 10.02449 (0.12197) (8.5e-05) (0.00329) (37.0443) [-0.86990] [ 4.15761] [ 0.37007] [ 0.27061] d(gdp(-1)) 0.947231 -0.001924 -0.003210 -69.70183 (0.55322) (0.00038) (0.01494) (168.023) [ 1.71222] [-5.02057] [-0.21479] [-0.41484] jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015: 119-131130 d(gdp(-2)) 0.546984 -0.001139 -0.006571 -4.607880 (0.85742) (0.00059) (0.02316) (260.416) [ 0.63794] [-1.91661] [-0.28370] [-0.01769] d(dx(-1)) 904.7039 -0.879051 -6.106484 -60882.36 (351.174) (0.24330) (9.48572) (106659.) [ 2.57623] [-3.61298] [-0.64376] [-0.57082] d(dx(-2)) -77.15913 0.067723 -5.020546 40322.15 (414.663) (0.28729) (11.2007) (125941.) [-0.18608] [ 0.23573] [-0.44824] [ 0.32017] d(emp(-1)) -29.40748 0.038615 -0.173311 2209.854 (20.1452) (0.01396) (0.54415) (6118.50) [-1.45978] [ 2.76669] [-0.31850] [ 0.36118] d(emp(-2)) -3.384447 0.006708 -0.385816 -3700.354 (13.5038) (0.00936) (0.36476) (4101.37) [-0.25063] [ 0.71697] [-1.05774] [-0.90222] d(cap(-1)) 0.000113 -1.12e-06 3.03e-05 0.124685 (0.00134) (9.3e-07) (3.6e-05) (0.40655) [ 0.08421] [-1.21305] [ 0.83731] [ 0.30669] d(cap(-2)) 0.000588 -1.01e-06 4.36e-06 -0.128248 (0.00114) (7.9e-07) (3.1e-05) (0.34720) [ 0.51462] [-1.27642] [ 0.14133] [-0.36938] notes: standard errors in () &t-statistic in [] table 15. multivariate granger causality tests based on vecm: singapore variables: d(dx) d(gdp) d(cap) ecm 0.011220 209.6231 4278.863 (0.06375) (36.8540) (9785.68) [ 0.17600] [ 5.68794] [ 0.43726] d(dx(-1)) -0.061845 -470.3054 -13026.79 (0.34288) (198.215) (52631.2) [-0.18037] [-2.37270] [-0.24751] d(dx(-2)) -0.211615 -464.3347 47902.94 (0.34490) (199.379) (52940.1) [-0.61356] [-2.32891] [ 0.90485] d(gdp(-1)) -0.000469 -0.877098 47.32419 (0.00054) (0.31266) (83.0184) [-0.86629] [-2.80531] [ 0.57004] d(gdp(-2)) 0.000161 -1.568638 28.58937 (0.00071) (0.40849) (108.465) [ 0.22847] [-3.84009] [ 0.26358] d(cap(-1)) -1.22e-06 0.006795 -0.034571 (2.9e-06) (0.00170) (0.45065) [-0.41443] [ 4.00388] [-0.07671] d(cap(-2)) -1.04e-06 0.001237 0.198290 (1.8e-06) (0.00105) (0.27790) [-0.57498] [ 1.18164] [ 0.71354] notes: standard errors in () &t-statistic in [] export diversification and economic growth...(sunaryati) 131 table 16. multivariate granger causality tests based on vecm: thailand variables: d(gdp) d(dx) d(emp) d(cap) ecm 0.785929 -0.000879 0.043637 0.344911 (0.82828) (0.00050) (0.00938) (1.46114) [ 0.94887] [-1.76146] [ 4.65124] [ 0.23606] d(gdp(-1)) -0.765429 0.001383 -0.061697 0.044245 (1.56139) (0.00094) (0.01769) (2.75439) [-0.49022] [ 1.47003] [-3.48849] [ 0.01606] d(gdp(-2)) -0.673741 0.000162 -0.001264 0.694222 (0.63732) (0.00038) (0.00722) (1.12427) [-1.05715] [ 0.42128] [-0.17510] [ 0.61749] d(dx(-1)) 642.7876 0.123443 29.38906 587.9058 (584.861) (0.35236) (6.62467) (1031.73) [ 1.09904] [ 0.35033] [ 4.43630] [ 0.56982] d(dx(-2)) 1312.402 -1.664573 66.07803 0.120507 (1656.58) (0.99804) (18.7640) (2922.32) [ 0.79224] [-1.66785] [ 3.52154] [ 4.1e-05] d(emp(-1)) 10.36249 -6.73e-05 -0.298477 -2.761696 (12.3958) (0.00747) (0.14041) (21.8671) [ 0.83597] [-0.00902] [-2.12580] [-0.12629] d(emp(-2)) 0.943376 0.012452 -0.456162 -3.930901 (15.6535) (0.00943) (0.17731) (27.6139) [ 0.06027] [ 1.32039] [-2.57273] [-0.14235] d(cap(-1)) 0.544919 -0.000380 0.018851 0.480540 (0.45761) (0.00028) (0.00518) (0.80725) [ 1.19081] [-1.37804] [ 3.63688] [ 0.59528] d(cap(-2)) 0.563680 -0.000676 0.019374 0.043864 (0.59870) (0.00036) (0.00678) (1.05614) [ 0.94151] [-1.87351] [ 2.85689] [ 0.04153] notes: standard errors in () &t-statistic in [] microsoft word 06-sumiyarti_rev1 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015, hlm.188-199 apakah hipotesis “export led growth” berlaku di indonesia? sumiyarti fakultas ekonomi universitas trisakti jl. kyai tapa no.1 grogol, jakarta – 11440, indonesia phone +62 21 5668632 e-mail korespondensi: sumiyarti69@gmail.com naskah diterima: februari 2015; disetujui: september 2015 abstract: this study aimed to test whether the hypothesis of "export led growth" applies to the indonesian economy. the term "export led growrth" refers to a situation where a country's exports become the motor of economic growth. to achieve these objectives research using data gdp (y) as a proxy for economic growth and serve as the dependent variable, and manufacturing exports (x), capital goods imports (m), the stock of capital (k) and labor (l) as independent variables. of all variables used, variable labor value or coefficient greatest. while variable manufacturing exports had the smallest coefficient. although when compared with other control variabe, the role of manufacturing exports variable in influencing economic growth (gdp) is relatively small, but the statistical significance of the test results may indicate that the alleged hypothesis of "export led growth" applies in indonesia can be accepted. keywords: economic export led growrth; manufacture; capital; labor; gross domestic product jel classification: f43, o14, o47 abstrak: studi ini bertujuan untuk menguji apakah hipotesis “export led growth” berlaku untuk perekonomian indonesia. istilah “export led growrth” merujuk pada suatu keadaan dimana ekspor suatu negara menjadi motor penggerak pertumbuhan ekonomi. untuk mencapai tujuan tersebut studi menggunakan data pdb (y) sebagai proksi pertumbuhan ekonomi dan berlaku sebagai variabel dependen, serta ekspor manufaktur (x), impor barang modal (m), stok kapital(k) serta tenaga kerja (l) sebagai variabel independen. dari seluruh variabel yang digunakan, variabel tenaga kerja memiliki nilai atau koefisien yang paling besar. sedangkan variabel ekspor manufaktur memiliki koefisien yang paling kecil. meskipun bila dibandingkan dengan variabel kontrol lainnya, peran variabel ekspor manufaktur dalam mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi (pdb) relatif sangat kecil, namun signifikansi hasil uji statistik dapat menunjukkan bahwa dugaan hipotesis “export led growrth” berlaku di indonesia dapat diterima. kata kunci: export led growrth; manufaktur; modal; tenaga kerja; produk domestik bruto klasifikasi jel: f43, o14, o47 pendahuluan kajian mengenai kaitan antara ekspor dan pertumbuhan ekonomi masih menarik minat untuk dilakukan. studi-studi yang mengeksplorasi hubungan antara ekspor dan pertumbuhan ekonomi juga masih banyak dilakukan. studistudi tersebut menggunakan model kausalitas atau model-model ekonometri yang lain. pada studi dengan model kausalitas dimaksudkan untuk menguji apakah ekspor yang mempengaruhi pertumbuhan atau pertumbuhan ekonomi yang mempengaruhi ekspor. sedangkan pada studi-studi dengan model ekonometri lain sebagian besar dilakukan dengan maksud untuk mengetahui bagaimana pengaruh antara ekspor terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. dalam istilah ekonomi dugaan adanya pengaruh ekspor dan apakah hipotesis “export led growth” ... (sumiyarti) 189 pertumbuhan dikenal dengan istilah export led growth hypothesis (hipotesis elg). studi-studi tentang korelasi antara ekspor dan pertumbuhan ekonomi pada awalnya banyak menggunakan fungsi produksi dengan mempertimbangkan variabel ekspor ke dalam fungsi tersebut. hubungan antara ekspor dan pertumbuhan ekonomi diuji dengan menggunakan data antar negara (cross country) dalam sebuah persamaan tunggal. namun jika terdapat kausalitas sebaliknya yaitu pertumbuhan ekonomi yang mempengaruhi ekspor maka hasil estimasi persamaan tersebut menjadi bias dan tidak konsisten. hal ini disebabkan karena pada studi yang didasarkan pada fungsi produksi dengan persamaan tunggal mengabaikan isu serius dari sifat simultan antara ekspor dan pertumbuhan ekonomi. beberapa studi ekonometri yang muncul belakangan menggunakan data runtun waktu (time series) dari negara secara individual untuk menguji adanya hipotesis elg. studi-studi ini dilakukan sebagai jawaban dari kritik terhadap studi yang menggunakan metode persamaan tunggal dengan data antarnegara. studi-studi tersebut sebagian besar didasarkan pada uji kausalitas granger atau sim, impulse response function atau error variance decomposition. hasilhasil studi ini belum ada yang mengarah pada hipotesis elg. namun-studi-studi yang dilakukan tersebut tetap memberi kesan adanya hubungan antara ekspor dan pertumbuhan ekonomi. pertentangan mengenai fakta dan interpretasi hasil studi menunjukkan bahwa terdapat perdebatan seputar hipotesis elg. bukti-bukti empiris tidak selalu membuktikan bahwa hipotesis elg selalu berlaku. alam (2003) menunjukkan hasil studinya pada perekonomian meksiko dan brazil. hasil temuan pada studi tersebut tidak mendukung terhadap berlakunya hipotesis elg, sebab studi itu tidak menemukan adanya efek penyebaran dan peningkatan produktifitas dari meningkatnya ekspor manufaktur. yang ditemukan justru impor barang modal memiliki pengaruh yang sangat signifikan dalam meningkatkan output. sementara keong, yusop dan khim sen (2005) mencoba melakukan pengujian terhadap hipotesis elg di malaysia. dengan menggunakan bounding test, diperoleh hasil bahwa variabel ekspor dan angkatan kerja secara positif akan menyumbang pada pertumbuhan ekonomi. analisis lebih jauh dengan kausalitas granger pada studi ini juga menunjukkan bahwa ekspor menjadi penyebab pertumbuhan ekonomi. dengan demikian studi ini membuktikan bahwa hipotesis elg valid untuk perekonomian malaysia. untuk perekonomian indonesia, dengan menggunakan metode two stage least square (tsls) ratnawati (2000) menemukan bahwa tenaga kerja, modal maupun ekspor manufaktur berpengaruh positif terhadap pertumbuhan pdb. tenaga kerja diketahui merupakan variabel terbesar penyumbang pdb indonesia. studi ini bermaksud untuk mencoba menerapkan suatu metodologi pengujian yang menggabungkan antara intuisi ekonomi dan penyederhanaan kerangka fungsi produksi dengan teknik runtun waktu menggunakan spesifikasi model tertentu. secara umum, studi ini ingin menguji validitas hipotesis elg pada perekonomian indonesia. komoditas ekspor yang digunakan untuk menguji hipotesis tersebut adalah ekspor manufakur. sehingga secara khusus, studi ini ingin membuktikan apakah ekspor manufaktur akan mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi indonesia dalam jangka panjang. studi ini juga akan mempertimbangkan beberapa variabel kontrol selain ekspor manufaktur yang mungkin mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi, seperti impor barang modal, stok modal serta tenaga kerja. perdagangan internasional terjadi ketika ada satu pihak (penduduk, perusahaan, maupun pemerintah) di satu negara yang mengadakan perdagangan (jual-beli) barang dengan pihak lain di negara yang berbeda. perdagangan internasional dapat terjadi karena ada negara-negara yang memliki surplus barang, sementara ada negara lain yang mengalami kekurangan barang. alasan tersebut lebih didasarkan karena adanya perbedaan iklim, letak geografis, yang mengakibatkan adanya perbedaan sumber daya alam. alasan lain yang mendasari terjadinya perdagangan internasional adalah karena adanya perbedaan harga. berdagang dengan negara lain bisa jadi menguntungkan, karena dapat membeli barang yang harganya lebih rendah, kemudian dapat menjualnya ke luar negeri dengan harga yang relatif lebih tinggi. perbedaan harga di berbagai jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015: 188-199 190 negara inilah yang seringkali dijadikan alasan umum terjadinya perdagangan luar negeri (nopirin, 1999 : hal 2 – 4). sementara itu pertumbuhan ekonomi pada dasarnya menerangkan tentang kenaikan output yang dihasilkan oleh suatu perekonomian. output perekonomian dilambangkan dengan nilai pdb. oleh karena itu pertumbuhan ekonomi umumnya didefinisikan sebagai kenaikan nilai pdb riil per kapita. karena aktifitas perekonomian terdiri dari berbagai sektor lapangan usaha, maka pertumbuhan ekonomi juga akan ditentukan oleh pertumbuhan (kenaikan) output atau meningkatnya nilai tambah sektoral. ada beberapa faktor yang dapat menjadi sumber terjadinya pertumbuhan ekonomi atau meningkatnya nilai tambah dari kegiatan ekonomi. pemahaman mengenai faktor-faktor yang menyumbang pada pertumbuhan ekonomi atau meningkatnya nilai tambah akan lebih mudah menggunakan fungsi produksi agregat. fungsi produksi menunjukkan hubungan teknis antara input dan output. pada tingkat agregat, output (y) adalah pdb yang tidak lain adalah total nilai tambah seluruh sektor produksi. sedangkan input yang mempengaruhi terbentuknya output adalah jumlah tenaga kerja (l) dan jumlah modal (k) yang tersedia dalam perekonomian. dengan demikian dapat digambarkan bahwa output (y) adalah fungsi dari input tenaga kerja (l) dan input modal (k), atau y = f ( l, k ). dalam istilah ekonomi, hubungan antara pertumbuhan ekonomi dengan faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhinya dirumuskan dalam teori pertumbuhan ekonomi.. salah satu teori ekonomi yang menggunakan fungsi produksi untuk menjelaskan hubungan antara kenaikan output dengan faktor-faktor penentunya adalah teori pertumbuhan ekonomi neo-klasik dari sollow-swan. inti dari teori ini adalah bagaimana pertumbuhan penduduk, akumulasi kapital, kemajuan teknologi dan output saling berinteraksi dalam proses pertumbuhan output. model ini juga menggunakan fungsi produksi yang lebih umum yaitu q = f (k,l) yang bisa menampung berbagai kemungkinan substitusi kapital (k) dan tenaga kerja (l). dalam perkembangan selanjutnya, para peneliti telah melakukan banyak pengembangan model pertumbuhan ekonomi neoklasik. pengembangan model tersebut di antaranya dengan mempertimbangkan variabel lain yang relevan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, seperti variabel ekspor serta impor. dalam kaitannya dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi, perdagangan internasional sering dianggap sebagai “mesin pertumbuhan” (engine of growth). konsep ini secara ringkas dapat dijelaskan dengan mekanisme sebagai berikut. pada abad ke-19, hampir semua produksi modern berpusat di inggris. lonjakan produksi industri dan jumlah penduduk di inggris selanjutnya memunculkan kebutuhan akan adanya tempat lain yang memasok bahan mentah dan bahan makanan, serta berfungsi sebagai pasar bagi produk-produk industri. maka kemudian berkembanglah tempat baru yang kemudian dikenal dengan “dunia peradaban baru” yang antara lain meliputi amerika serikat, kanada, australia, selandia baru, argentina, urugay dan afrika selatan. perekonomian inggris tumbuh pesat yang diikuti pula dengan peningkatan dalam impor. kemajuan perekonomian inggris ini mengimbas kepada perekonomian dunia baru tersebut yang diakibatkan karena meningkatnya intensitas perdagangan internasional. kegiatan ekspor-impor telah turut membantu perkembangan negara-negara tersebut. sektor ekspor merupakan sektor utama yang mengembangkan perkonomian inggris dan tempat-tempat “dunia peradaban baru” yang sekarang telah menjadi negara-negara maju. kawasan-kawasan itu mengalami pertumbuhan dan pembangunan yang pesat karena terlibat dalam kegiatan ekpsor yang intensif. dengan demikian maka dapat dikatakan bahwa perdagangan internasional khususnya ekspor telah menjadi “mesin pertumbuhan” bagai negaranegara berkembang saat itu (salvatore,1997: hal. 423-424). bukti perdagangan internasional khususnya sektor ekspor telah mampu menjadi mesin penggerak pertumbuhan yang menjadi bahan kajian dengan banyaknya studi empiris. beberapa studi empiris yang dilakukan menggunakan kerangka fungsi produksi, salah satunya adalah fungsi produksi neo-klasik. dalam fungsi produksi tersebut, satu-satunya penentu pertumbuhan pendapatan jangka panjang ada apakah hipotesis “export led growth” ... (sumiyarti) 191 lah adalah kemajuan teknologi yang bersifat eksogen. dengan demikian maka perdagangan internasional tidak memiliki efek terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi jangka panjang. model-model pertumbuhan ekonomi yang berkembang pada tahun-tahun terakhir ini mencoba menggali kaitan antara perdagangan internasional dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi. misalnya grossman dan helpman (1991), yang menunjukkan manfaat-manfaat perdagangan internasional yaitu berupa eksternalitas dari masuknya komoditi impor baru maupun teknologi atau pengetahuan baru. eksternalitas itu dimungkinkan karena dalam dunia yang tumbuh dengan cepat dengan komunikasi yang murah, ide-ide baru dan informasi dengan cepat menyebar melewati batas lintas negara. sebaliknya sebagai akibatnya negara-negara akan mendapatkan manfaat dari penyebaran yang dihasilkan oleh inovasi dalam pengetahuan dari negara-negara yang menjadi partner dagangnya (grossman, g.m dan helpman, e , 1990 : 86). dengan penyebaran teknologi yang sempurna (full diffusion), pergerakan menuju paintegrasi ekonomi melalui pengurangan restriksi perdagangan juga akan berakibat pada meningkatnya pertumbuhan ekonomi dunia dalam jangka panjang. demikian pula dengan adanya liberalisasi multilateral yang komprehensif yang terdiri dari perdagangan barangbarang dan ide-ide juga akan menyebabkan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang lebih cepat (batiz, luis a.r. dan xie, d., 1992 : 422-427). meskipun studi-studi empiris yang dilakukan memiliki hasil yang berbeda dalam menggambarkan apakah perdagangan internasional memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan atau tidak terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, tetapi studistudi yang telah dilakukan tersebut telah meletakkan kerangka dasar untuk analisa empiris. dasar teori yang telah mempertimbangkan variabel perdagangan intenasional adalah teori pertumbuhan baru (new growth) atau endogen. dalam teori pertumbuhan baru telah dipertimbangkan kemungkinan adanya eksternalitas atau increasing return to scale dalam fungsi produksi. eksternalitas itu dapat ditimbulkan dari kegiatan melakukan impor dan ekspor dari dan ke negara lain. secara teori, terdapat beberapa jalur yang dapat menjelaskan bahwa perluasan ekspor akan mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi (alam, 2003 : 87 – 90): 1) pengaruh penyebaran dinamis (dinamics spillover effect) dari peningkatan ekspor ke seluruh perekonomian dunia. sumber-sumber dari penyebaran ini termasuk di antaranya perbaikan teknologi yang dipercepat sebagai akibat meningkatnya persaingan, efisiensi dan kewirausahaan, bentuk organisasi tenaga kerja yang baik, telah mengubah sikap dan pengetahuan mengenai teknologi dan pasar secara internasional. proses tersebut sering dikatakan sebagai “learning by doing” atau lebih tepatnya “learning by exporting”. dampak langsung dari perluasan ekspor terhadap peningkatan kegiatan ekonomi itu yang kemudian diistilahkan dengan hipotesis export led growth. 2) pada kenyataannya sebagian negara berkembang memiliki kendala keterbatasan nilai tukar, sehingga dengan adanya ekspor akan dapat mengurangi kendala tersebut sehingga tetap dapat melakukan impor terhadap input dan barang-barang modal yang memiliki kandungan teknologi yang tidak dapat diproduksi di dalam negeri. seperti studi yang dilakukan oleh lee (1995) dalam alam (2003) yang menunjukkan bahwa impor barang modal dari negara yang berteknologi lebih maju kemungkinan akan memiliki eksternalitas yang besar. sehingga tanpa memasukkan impor barang modal ke dalam persaamaan dikhawatirkan hasil estimasi yang diperoleh akan bias. 3) levine dan renelt (1992) dalam alam (2003) menemukan bahwa tidak satupun dari ukuran keterbukaan yang memasukkan rasio ekspor ditambah impor terhadap pdb yang secara kuat berhubungan dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi. tetapi rasio ekspor terhadap pdb secara kuat berhubungan rasio investasi terhadap pdb. dengan demikian terhadap hubungan yang tidak langsung antara ekspor dan pertumbuhan ekonomi melalui investasi. kerangka pemikiran dan hipotesis penelitian. berdasarkan landasan teoritis dan studi empiris diperoleh konsep bahwa ekspor suatu negara, terutama ekspor manufaktur akan memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. semakin tinggi nilai ekspor akan semakin meningkatkan pertum jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015: 188-199 192 buhan ekonomi. berdasarkan pemikiran tersebut makan dapat disusun hipotesis sebagai berikut : h1: ekspor manufaktur mempunyai pengaruh positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi indonesia kinerja ekspor yang baik ditentukan oleh tingginya aktifitas produksi pada sektor-sektor ekonomi. kemajuan aktifitas ekonomi pada sektor-sektor ekonomi di indonesia juga masih mengandalkan pada ketersediaan barang modal, yang sebagian besar masih diimpor dari luar negeri. dengan demikian maka bila impor barang modal juga harus diperhitungkan sebagai salah satu faktor yang dapat mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi. semakin tinggi nilai impor barang modal, maka perekonomian negara yang besangkutan akan memiliki eksternalitas yang lebih besar untuk melakukan alih teknologi, yang selanjutnya diharapkan akan semakin meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi. hipotesis kaitan antara impor barang modal dan pertumbuhan ekonomi adalah sebagai berikut : h2: impor barang modal mempunyai pengaruh positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi indonesia pertumbuhan ekonomi menunjukkan peningkatan output per kapita dalam jangka panjang. sedang dilihat dari sisi penawaran, output yang dihasilkan tergantung dari banyaknya input yang digunakan. dalam proses produksi terdapat dua jenis input yang digunakan yaitu modal dan tenaga kerja. semakin banyak input modal dan tenaga kerja yang digunakan maka akan semakin banyak output yang dihasilkan, dan dapat dihipotesiskan sebagai berikut: h3: stok modal mempunyai pengaruh positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi indonesia h1: jumlah tenaga kerja mempunyai pengaruh positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi indonesia metode penelitian studi ini memfokuskan pada pembuktian apakah ekspor merupakan faktor pendorong terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi indonesia. komoditi ekspor terutama ekspor manufaktur dianggap dapat memacu pertumbuhan ekonomi. studi ini memfokuskan pada bagaimana pengaruh ekspor manufaktur terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. selain itu di negara sedang berkembang faktor impor barang modal juga diduga dapat menjadi penyebab pertumbuhan ekonomi. sehingga dalam studi ini dipertimbangkan juga beberapa variabel lain yang diduga dapat menjadi penyebab terjadinya pertumbuhan ekonomi seperti impor barang modal, tenaga kerja serta stok kapital. variabel yang digunakan dalam studi ini meliputi variabel tak bebas (dependent variable) serta variabel bebas (independent variable). variabel tak bebas dalam studi ini adalah pertumbuhan ekonomi yang diproksi dengan nilai pdb (y). sedangkan variabel bebas yang digunakan meliputi variabel stok kapital (k), variabel tenaga kerja (l), variabel ekspor manufaktur (x) dan variabel im2012por barang modal (m). keseluruhan variabel tersebut didefinisikan dan diukur sebagai berikut: variabel produk domestik bruto (y) adalah jumlah seluruh nilai tambah yang dihasilkan oleh seluruh unit usaha dalam suatu negara tertentu atau merupakan jumlah nilai barang dan jasa akhir yang dihasilkan oleh seluruh unit ekonomi. nilai produk domestik bruto (pdb) yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah nilai pdb riil yaitu pdb tahunan yang dihitung atas dasar harga konstan tahun 1993, selama kurun waktu 1990 -2012 dalam satuan milyar rupiah. variabel stok kapital (k) adalah besarnya nilai riil barang modal pada akhir periode. namun studi ini nilai stok kapital diproksi dengan nilai riil pembentukan modal tetap domestik bruto (pmtdb) tahunan dari tahun 1990–2012 dengan harga konstan tahun 1993, dalam satuan milyar rupiah. variabel ekspor manufaktur (x) adalah nilai riil ekspor yang meliputi ekspor barang dengan kode sitc 5 ditambah (+) sitc 6 kecuali sitc 67 dan sitc 68 ditambah (+) sitc 7 ditambah (+) sitc 8. sitc 5 terdiri dari produk kimia dan produk terkait; sitc 6 terdiri barang-barang manufaktur dasar (kulit, karet, kertas, tekstil, dan lain lain); sitc 67 adalah besi dan baja; sitc 68 adalah non-ferrous metal; sitc 7 terdiri dari mesin-mesin dan perlengkapan transportasi; sitc 8 terdiri barangbarang manufaktur lainnya seperti perlengkapan foto, instrumen optik, mainan, dan lain lain). nilai riil ekspor manufaktur yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah nilai ekspor tahunan dari tahun 1990-2012, dalam satuan juta us $. apakah hipotesis “export led growth” ... (sumiyarti) 193 variabel impor barang modal (m) adalah nilai riil impor barang modal yang meliputi nilai impor barang modal dengan klasifikasi sitc 7 kecuali perlengkapan transportasi. data nilai riil impor barang modal yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah nilai impor tahunan dari tahun 1990 – 2011, dalam satuan juta us $. variabel tenaga kerja (l) didefinisikan sebagai bagian dari penduduk usia kerja yang berumur 10 tahun ke atas (1990 – 1997) dan 15 tahun ke atas (1998 – 2012) yang bekerja. istilah bekerja di menurut definisi bps adalah melakukan pekerjaan dengan maksud memperoleh atau membantu memperoleh pendapatan atau keuntungan dan lamanya bekerja paling sedikit 1 jam secara terus menerus dalam seminggu yang lalu (termasuk pekerja keluarga tanpa upah yang membantu dalam suatu usaha/ kegiatan ekonomi). data tenaga kerja yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah tenaga kerja tahunan dari tahun 1990-2012, dengan satuan orang. untuk mencapai tujuan studi, maka digunakan spesifikasi model yang disusun dengan menggunakan variabel-variabel tersebut di atas sebagai berikut: yt = f (at, kt, lt, xt, mt), 1) dimana a menunjukkan faktor eksogen yt = at ktβ ltγ xtλ mtδ 2) hubungan tersebut bila diubah dalam fungsi log linear akan menjadi: log yt = α + β log kt + γ log lt + λ xt + δ log mt + ε 3) di mana: α adalah konstanta; kt adalah stok modal riil; lt adalah jumlah angkatan kerja yang bekerja; xt adalah nilai ekspor; mt adalah nilai impor berdasarkan persamaan sederhana tersebut maka pengujian terhadap keberadaan hipotesis elg dilakukan dengan hipotesis sebagai berikut : ho : λ = 0 yang artinya hipotesis elg ditolak ho : λ > 0 yang artinya hipotesis elg diterima dengan pengujian tersebut , maka apabila nilai λ > 0, maka secara statistik hipotesis elg diterima, yang artinya ekspor manufaktur secara statistik signifikan dalam mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi indonesia.estimasi terhadap model tersebut dilakukan dengan menggunakan metode ols (ordinary least square). kemudian terhadap hasil estimasi yang diperoleh akan dilakukan pengujian penyimpangan asumsi klasik yaitu uji multikolinieritas, uji heteroskedastisitas, dan uji autokorelasi. uji multikolinieritas dilakukan untuk menguji apakah terdapat korelasi yang signifikan di antara dua atau lebih variabel independent dalam model regresi. sedangkan uji heteroskedastitas dilakukan untuk menguji bahwa gangguan acak (µ) pada variable bebas adalah homoskedastisitas. uji autokorelasi menguji adanya korelasi kesalahan pengganggu (error term) dari satu periode dengan periode sebelumnya, atau kesalahan pengganggu menjadi tidak bebas karena satu sama lain saling berhubungan. hasil dan pembahasan model yang digunakan di dalam studi, yaitu : log yt = α + β log kt + γ log lt + λ xt + δ log mt + ε 4) hasil estimasi awal dari model tersebut adalah: log yt = -12,19068 + 0,066557 log kt + (0,0250) (0,0250) 1,155834 log lt + 0,274223 xt + (0,0018) (0,0010) 0,052778 log mt + ε 5) (0,0474) keterangan: ( ) menunjukkan probabilitas hasil regresi tersebut telah melewati beberapa uji asumsi klasik meliputi uji normalitas, uji heteroskedastisitas, uji autokolerasi dan uji multikolinearitas. uji normalitas bertujuan untuk mengetahui apakah dalam model regresi terdapat variabel pengganggu atau residual memiliki distribusi normal. pengujian normali jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015: 188-199 194 tas dengan menggunakan jarque berra test menghasilkan nilai probabilita sebesar 0,991174 > 0,05 yang berarti hipotesis null yang menyatakan bahwa distribusi dari error bersifat normal diterima. dengan demikian asumsi normalitas yang disyaratkan dapat terpenuhi. heteroskedastisitas menunjukkan bahwa varian dari setiap error bersifat heterogen yang berarti melanggar asumsi klasik yang mensyaratkan bahwa varian dari error harus bersifat homogen. pengujian heteroskedastisitas yang dilakukan dengan menggunakan uji white-test mendapatkan hasil nilai probabilita obs*r² 0,3441 > 0,05, yang memberikan kesimpulan bahwa model regresi yang digunakan tidak terdapat adanya heteroskedastisitas. autokorelasi menunjukkan bahwa adanya korelasi antara error pada satu periode dengan error periode sebelumnya. permasalahan autokorelasi hanya relevan digunakan jika data yang dipakai adalah data time series. pengujian hipotesis untuk uji autokorelasi dilakukan dengan menggunakan uji lm-test memberikan hasil nilai signifikansi dari probabilita obs*r² 0.0626 > 0.05, yang memberi kesimpulan bahwa model regresi yang digunakan tidak terdapat aanya autokorelasi. multikolinearitas menunjukkan bahwa antara variabel independen mempunyai hubungan langsung (berkorelasi). konsekuensi dari multikolinearitas akan menyebabkan koefisien regresi nilainya kecil, standar error regresi nilainya besar sehingga pengujian individunya menjadi tidak signifikan. ciri adanya multikolinearitas adalah r-square tinggi, f-test signifikan, namun t testnya banyak yang tidak signifikan. deteksi awal keberadaan multikolinieritas dilakukan dengan matriks korelasi. pada model yang digunakan terdapat nilai correlation matrix antar variabel independen saling mempengaruhi. di antaranya stok modal riil dengan jumlah angkatan kerja yang bekerja, stok modal riil dan nilai ekspor, stok modal riil dan nilai impor, jumlah angkatan kerja yang bekerja dan nilai ekspor. muktikolinieritas yang kuat terjadi pada variabel independent jumlah angkatan kerja yang bekerja dan nilai ekspor yaitu sebesar 0,968976, maka multikolinearitas tersebut harus disembuhkan. penanggulangan uji multikolinearitas dilakukan dengan menghilangkan satu atau lebih variabel bebas yang mempunyai kolinearitas tinggi (sebelumnya telah dilakukan log-lin pada masing-masing variabel). namun setelah dilakukan transformasi logaritma natural, ternyata hasil dari probabilita kt 0,0018 < 0,05 yang artinya jumlah angkatan kerja sudah signifikan. dalam arti lain, model yang diteliti tidak memiliki masalah multikolinearitas. hasil estimasi persamaan memiliki nilai probabilita dari f-statistik adalah 0,000000 < 0,05 maka ha diterima dan signifikan secara statistik. atau dengan kata lain, secara bersama-sama variabel independen (stok modal riil, jumlah angkatan kerja yang bekerja, nilai ekspor, dan nilai impor) mempengaruhi variabel dependen (pdb). hasil estimasi model regresi juga menghasilkan r² = 0,982587 = 98,2587% yang menunjukkan bahwa kemampuan variabel independen (stok modal riil, jumlah angkatan kerja yang bekerja, nilai ekspor, dan nilai impor) untuk menjelaskan variabel dependen (pdb) sebesar 98,2587%. sedangkan sisanya yaitu sebesar 1,7413% adalah perilaku dari variabel bebas lain yang mempengaruhi pdb tetapi tidak dimasukkan dalam model. setelah dilakukan pengujian terhadap asumsi klasik, maka dilakukan pengujian signifikansi variabel studi secara individu dengan menggunakan t test. melihat hasil regresi ternyata semua data variabel yaitu jumlah angkatan kerja yang bekerja, nilai ekspor, dan nilai impor berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap pdb, variabel ekspor secara statistik siginifikan mempengaruhi pdb. koefisien ekspor memililiki nilai yang paling kecil diantara seluruh variabel independen. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa dalam perekonomian indonesia, ekspor memiliki kontribusi positif dalam membentuk output (pdb). hasil ini menunjukkan kesesuaian dengan studi sebelumnya seperti ratnawati (2000) bahwa tenaga kerja, modal maupun ekspor manufaktur berpengaruh positif terhadap pertumbuhan pdb. demikian pula dengan studi dari keong, yusop dan khim sen (2005) terhadap perekonomian malaysia, yang memberikan hasil bahwa ekspor dan tenaga kerja memberikan pengaruh positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi negara itu. sementara itu variabel kontrol berupa im apakah hipotesis “export led growth” ... (sumiyarti) 195 por barang modal juga memiliki koefisien positif serta signifikan dalam membentuk pdb. hal ini dapat dijelaskan bahwa karakteristik ekspor manufaktur indonesia masih mengandalkan pada kandungan barang impor terutama impor barang modal. hampir seluruh jenis barang industri manufaktur memiliki kandungan impor yang tinggi. impor barang modal memiliki eksternalitas dalam industri manufaktur. pengaruh impor barang modal terhadap pdb terjadi tidak secara langsung tetapi melalui efek penyebaran yang ditimbulkan oleh barang modal tersebut. di dalam barang modal terkandung “knowledge” serta teknologi yang memberi efek positif pada pertumbuhan industri manufaktur. dengan demikian maka peningkatan impor barang modal akan menggerakkan industi manufaktur yang pada akhirnya dapat mendorong pertumbuhan produk domestik bruto. variabel inti dalam fungsi produksi yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah stok modal dan tenga kerja. kedua variabel ini secara signifikan mempengaruhi pdb dengan koefisien yang positif. variabel tenaga kerja merupakan variabel yang memiliki koefisien paling besar di antara seluruh variabel yang digunakan. hasil ini sesuai dengan studi yang banyak dilakukan, dimana dalam persamaan tentang pertumbuhan pdb dengan tenaga kerja untuk perekonomian indonesia hampir selalu diperoleh hasil bahwa variabel ini memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan dan positif terhadap pertumbuhan pdb. kenyataan ini memberi gambaran bahwa output pada sektor-sektor ekonomi di indonesia masih mengandalkan pada jumlah tenaga kerja yang digunakan. semakin banyak input tenaga kerja digunakan, maka akan semakin tinggi pula output (pdb) yang dihasilkan. konsep tenaga kerja yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah adalah tenaga kerja dari sisi jumlah atau kuantitas, bukan kualitas. artinya kontribusi tenaga kerja dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi masih dilihat dari sisi kuantitas. secara implisit hal ini mengesankan bahwa penggunaan tenaga kerja pada sektor-sektor ekonomi masih bertumpu pada tenaga kerja “unskill” dengan tingkat pendidikan yang rendah. tingkat keahlian dan keterampilan tenaga kerja yang rendah akan menghasilkan nilai tambah yang juga rendah. variabel modal pada studi ini juga memiliki pengaruh yang positif dan signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi (pdb). hal ini sesuai dengan hipotesis bahwa semakin banyak stok modal digunakan maka akan semakin banyak pula output yang akan dihasilkan. hal ini menunjukka bahwa stok modal sebagai sumber internal dalam pembentukan output masih dominan sebagai sumber pertumbuhan ekonomi. secara keseluruhan hasil studi ini membuktikan adanya kebenaran hipotesis “export led growth” di indonesia. meskipun dampak dari ekspor terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi (pdb) relatif sangat kecil dibandingkan faktorfaktor yang lain yang digunakan, tetapi masih memberi pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi (pdb). dikaitkan dengan kuatnya pengaruh tenaga kerja, dapat dikatakan pada bahwa sektor-sektor ekonomi penopang ekspor indonesia masih mengandalkan pada jumlah tenaga kerja dengan kualifikasi “unskill”. dengan demikian daya ungkitnya terhadap penciptaan nilai tambah barangbarang manufaktur yang akan dieskpor menjadi rendah. selain itu masih tingginya kontribusi impor barang modal pada aktifitas industri manufaktur juga memberi efek terhadap rendahnya daya saing produk tersebut di pasar ekspor. hasil studi ini juga mengesankan bahwa dilihat dari sumber penyebab pertumbuhan, pertumbuhan ekonomi (pdb) indonesia masih mengandalkan pada sumber-sumber internal yaitu stok modal dan tenaga kerja. sumber eksternal yang berasal dari lalu lintas barang perdagangan internasional seperti ekspor dan impor masih masih lebih rendah dampaknya terhadap pertumbuhan pdb. eksternalitas yang berasal dari lalu lintas perdagangan masih belum bisa memberikan efek yang besar dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi indonesia. simpulan keseluruhan variabel secara bersama-sama signifikan dalam mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi (pdb) indonesia. pengujian statistik mengenai pengaruh variabel independen terha jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015: 188-199 196 dap variabel dependen memberikan hasil bahwa keseluruhan variabel independen yang digunakan yaitu tenaga kerja, stok modal riil, ekspor manufaktur dan impor barang modal signifikan mempengaruhi pdb. keseluruhan variabel juga memiliki tanda positif. hal ini berarti bahwa keseluruhan hipotesis yang diajukan dalam studi ini keseluruhannya diterima. berdasarkan besaran koefisien variabel independen, terlihat bahwa variabel tenaga kerja memiliki koefisien terbesar. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa variabel tenaga kerja memiliki pengaruh yang relatif lebih besar dalam mendorong pdb dibandingkan dengan variabel lain. secara umum hasil studi membuktikan bahwa hipotesis “export led growth” berlaku untuk perekonomian indonesia. hasil ini sejalan dengan beberapa studi sebelumnya, bahwa perkembangan ekspor satu negara, terutama ekspor barang manufaktur dapat menjadi mesin pendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi. berdasarkan kesimpulan yang diutarakan di atas, maka beberapa saran yang dapat dikemukakan adalah sebagai berikut. variabel tenaga kerja secara statistik signifikan mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi dan memiliki nilai koefisien yang paling besar. namun konsep tenaga kerja yang digunakan adalah tenaga kerja dalam arti jumlah atau kuantitas dan bukan kualitas. hal ini yang dapat menjadi penyebab rendahnya nilai tambah yang diciptakan pada beberapa sektor produksi, termasuk industri manufaktur. untuk itu maka diperlukan peningkatan kualitas tenaga serta sumber baik melalui pendidikan, pelatihan maupun pendidikan non formal lainnya. hipotesis “export led growth” berlaku untuk perekonomian indonesia, namun lemah dampaknya terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. nilai koefisien impor barang modal justru memiliki nilai yang lebih besar dibanding dengan ekspor manufaktur. angka ini menunjukkan bahwa eksternalitas dari impor barang modal terhadap peningkatan nilai tambah sektor industri manufaktur masih rendah. diperlukan suatu upaya atau kebijakan agar efek penyebaran/alih teknologi berlaku, dan ini membutuhkan kualitas sumber daya manusia yang lebih baik. pada akhirnya diperlukan studi lebih lanjut untuk mengetahui daya saing pada sektor produk serta produk yang menjadi penopang ekspor, agar dapat dirumuskan kebijakan yang lebih terarah dalam mendorong ekspor manufaktur di indonesia. daftar pustaka alam, m imam. 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(2003). perekonomian indonesia, beberapa masalah penting. jakarta: penerbit ghalia indonesia. lampiran hasil regresi log-lin dependent variable: lnyt method: least squares date: 17/10/13 time: 10:03 sample: 1990 2012 included observations: 23 variable coefficient std. error t-statistic prob. c -12,19068 4,984594 -2,445671 0,0250 lnkt 0,066557 0,047080 1,413694 0,1745 lnlt 1,155834 0,316155 3,655912 0,0018 lnxt 0,274223 0,070088 3,912559 0,0010 lnmt 0,052778 0,024796 2,128531 0,0474 r-squared 0,985753 mean dependent var 13,05950 adjusted r-squared 0,982587 s,d, dependent var 0,324822 akaike info criterion 0,042863 -3,271936 schwarz criterion 0,033071 -3,025089 log likelihood 42,62726 hannan-quinn criter, -3,209855 f-statistic 311,3488 durbin-watson stat 1,033419 prob(f-statistic) 0,000000 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015: 188-199 198 hasil uji heteroskedastisitas heteroskedasticity test: white f-statistic 1,152931 prob, f(12,10) 0,4166 obs*r-squared 13,35039 prob, chi-square(12) 0,3441 scaled explained ss 7,632767 prob, chi-square(12) 0,8131 test equation: dependent variable: resid^2 method: least squares date: 17/10/13 time: 10:04 sample: 1990 2012 included observations: 23 collinear test regressors dropped from specification variable coefficient std. error t-statistic prob. c 2,238079 20,85608 0,107311 0,9167 lnkt -1,057891 2,226502 -0,475136 0,6449 lnkt^2 -0,016164 0,026451 -0,611090 0,5548 lnkt*lnlt 0,066701 0,142482 0,468137 0,6497 lnkt*lnxt 0,022605 0,046054 0,490826 0,6341 lnkt*lnmt -0,001684 0,031116 -0,054120 0,9579 lnlt -0,115642 1,316737 -0,087825 0,9317 lnlt*lnxt -0,066920 0,079544 -0,841291 0,4198 lnlt*lnmt 0,003351 0,009016 0,371688 0,7179 lnxt 0,962027 1,260598 0,763152 0,4630 lnxt^2 0,007170 0,013143 0,545585 0,5973 lnxt*lnmt -0,016544 0,032733 -0,505428 0,6242 lnmt^2 0,007008 0,007847 0,893088 0,3928 r-squared 0,580452 mean dependent var 0,001438 adjusted r-squared 0,076994 s,d, dependent var 0,002009 s,e, of regression 0,001930 akaike info criterion -9,365160 sum squared resid 3,72e-05 schwarz criterion -8,723358 log likelihood 120,6993 hannan-quinn criter, -9,203748 f-statistic 1,152931 durbin-watson stat 2,218004 prob(f-statistic) 0,416612 hasil uji autokolerasi breusch-godfrey serial correlation lm test: f-statistic 2,538761 prob, f(2,16) 0,1103 obs*r-squared 5,540642 prob, chi-square(2) 0,0626 test equation: dependent variable: resid method: least squares date: 17/10/13 time: 10:05 sample: 1990 2012 included observations: 23 presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero, apakah hipotesis “export led growth” ... (sumiyarti) 199 variable coefficient std, error t-statistic prob, c 0,885327 4,623345 0,191491 0,8506 lnkt 0,012799 0,044152 0,289893 0,7756 lnlt -0,058496 0,293330 -0,199422 0,8444 lnxt 0,014014 0,065069 0,215366 0,8322 lnmt -0,011828 0,024316 -0,486431 0,6333 resid(-1) 0,485902 0,249728 1,945724 0,0695 resid(-2) 0,038361 0,259774 0,147672 0,8844 r-squared 0,240897 mean dependent var 3,21e-15 adjusted r-squared -0,043766 s,d, dependent var 0,038771 s,e, of regression 0,039611 akaike info criterion -3,373641 sum squared resid 0,025104 schwarz criterion -3,028056 log likelihood 45,79687 hannan-quinn criter, -3,286727 f-statistic 0,846254 durbin-watson stat 2,058352 prob(f-statistic) 0,553081 microsoft word 03-mita jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 1, april 2014, hlm.23-36 perhitungan nilai manfaat dan biaya migrasi internasional tenaga kerja indonesia mita adhisti departemen pengelolaan dan kepatuhan laporan bank indonesia jalan m.h. thamrin nomor 2, jakarta pusat, jakarta 10110, indonesia phone: +62 21 29818127 e-mail korespondensi: diestie.adh@gmail.com naskah diterima: agustus 2013; disetujui: februari 2014 abstract: the low employment and the standard wage or salary in the country into individual driving factors for migrating abroad to find work. this study specifically addresses the calculation of benefits gained migrant workers during their working lives and costs to be incurred during the placement process in south korea, malaysia, singapore, and taiwan. the calculation of the estimated value of net benefits is the result of a reduction in the value of benefits and costs, referring to the model of the value of the benefits and costs of international migration developed by massey et al (1993) the results of calculations indicate that the estimated net benefits received by migrant workers in south korea and taiwan during the threeyear period amounted to 234.5 and 130.8 million. as for the working period of two years, the estimated net value of the benefit received tki singapore and malaysia amounted to 48.5 million and 39 million. the results of the calculations can be used as an alternative choice in the decision making process of individuals to choose the destination country of employment. keywords: international migration; indonesian workers; benefit; cost jel classification: f22, o15 abstrak: rendahnya kesempatan kerja maupun standar upah atau gaji di dalam negeri menjadi faktor pendorong individu untuk migrasi ke luar negeri untuk mendapatkan kerja. studi ini secara khusus membahas perhitungan manfaat yang didapatkan tki selama masa kerjanya dan biaya yang harus dikeluarkan selama mengikuti proses penempatan di korea selatan, malaysia, singapura, dan taiwan. perhitungan estimasi nilai manfaat bersih yang merupakan hasil pengurangan antara nilai manfaat dan biaya, mengacu pada model nilai manfaat dan biaya migrasi internasional yang dikembangkan oleh massey et al (1993).hasil perhitungan menunjukkan bahwa estimasi manfaat bersih yang diterima tki yang bekerja di korea selatan dan taiwan selama masa kerja tiga tahun adalah sebesar 234,5 dan 130,8 juta rupiah. sedangkan untuk masa kerja dua tahun, estimasi nilai manfaat bersih yang diterima tki singapura dan malaysia sebesar 48,5 juta rupiah dan 39 juta rupiah. hasil perhitungan dapat digunakan sebagai pilihan alternatif dalam proses pengambilan keputusan individu untuk memilih negara tujuan kerja. kata kunci: migrasi internasional; tenaga kerja indonesia; manfaat; biaya klasifikasi jel: f22, o15 pendahuluan perilaku manusia melakukan migrasi dalam sejarahnya sudah dimulai dari awal kehidupan manusia yang didasari oleh faktor pendorong dan faktor penarik migrasi (lee, 1966). kedua faktor ini tidak lepas dipengaruhi oleh kondisi lingkungan, politik, budaya, maupun ekonomi suatu wilayah (kumar dan sidhu, 2005). faktor pendorong migrasi sebagian besar terdapat pada negara yang sedang berkembang dilihat dari karakteristik kondisi perekonomian yang belum stabil. lain halnya dengan faktor jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 1, april 2014: 23-36 24 penarik migrasi yang dimiliki oleh negara maju dengan kondisi perekonomian yang mapan dan relatif stabil. indonesia dengan pendapatan per kapita 2.940 dolar amerika pada tahun 2011, dalam klasifikasi world bank tergolong dalam lowermiddle income economies karena tingkat pendapatan per kapita yang berada dikisaran 1.026 sampai 4.035 dolar amerika. rendahnya tingkat pendapatan, tingginya tingkat pengangguran terbuka 6,56 persen dan pekerja tidak penuh indonesia 34,59 persen (badan pusat statistik indonesia (bps), 2011) merupakan beberapa faktor yang mendorong masyarakat untuk migrasi internal maupun internasional. masyarakat indonesia yang melakukan migrasi ke luar negeri untuk bekerja kerap kali dikenal dengan istilah tenaga kerja indonesia (tki). dalam perkembangannya, istilah tki sering ditafsirkan oleh banyak orang mengandung makna negatif, yaitu sebutan bagi para pekerja indonesia kurang terampil yang bekerja di sektor informal di luar negeri. namun pada dasarnya, definisi tki secara umum yang dijelaskan dalam keputusan menteri tenaga kerja dan transmigrasi (kepmen) no.104a/ men/2002 adalah warga negara indonesia (wni) baik laki-laki maupun perempuan yang bekerja di luar negeri dalam jangka waktu tertentu berdasarkan perjanjian kerja. pergeseran makna tki berdasarkan fakta yang terlihat oleh masyarakat bahwa sebagian besar tki di luar negeri bekerja di sektor informal merupakan pekerja kurang terampil. migrasi internasional tki mulai berkembang setelah era kemerdekaan, yaitu pada tahap repelita ii tahun 1974-1979 dengan tiga besar negara tujuan kerja tki, yaitu arab saudi, singapura, dan hongkong (tabel 1.1: tirtosudarmo, 1999). sejak tahun 1980an terjadi lonjakan migrasi tki ke arab saudi secara drastis karena besarnya kesempatan kerja yang dibuka bagi tenaga kerja asing oleh pemerintah arab saudi di bidang jasa personal pada sektor informal karena peningkatan kesejahteraan penduduk di arab saudi setelah terjadi lonjakan harga minyak di akhir tahun 70’an dan awal tahun 80’an, sehingga ingin mengalihfungsikan tugas rumah tangga (international organization for migration (iom), 2010). lonjakan tki sejak tahun 1980-an juga terjadi di malaysia, tirtosudarmo (1999) mengidentifikasi bahwa sebagian besar tki bekerja di sektor informal, yaitu bidang jasa personal rumah tangga maupun di sektor formal industri pertanian dan konstruksi. iom dalam studinya tabel 1. tenaga kerja indonesia di negara penempatan kawasan asia 1974-1997 no negara tujuan repelita ii 1974-1979 repelita iii 1979-1984 repelita iv 1984-1989 repelita v 1989-1994 1994-1997 1 arab saudi 3.817 55.976 223.573 268.858 267.191 2 malaysia/brunei 536 11.441 38.705 130.735 392.512 3 singapura/hongkong 3.729 6.768 12.272 38.071 80.222 4 korea/taiwan/jepang 451 920 573 6.153 45.256 sumber: tirtosudarmo (1999) tabel 2. penempatan tenaga kerja indonesia berdasarkan negara penempatan kawasan asia dan sektor kerja tahun 2010 – 2011 no negara penempatan 2010 2011 persentase perubahan (%δ) formal informal total formal informal total formal informal total 1 malaysia 115.451 605 116.056 126.311 6.427 132.738 9,4 962 14,4 2 singapura 103 39.520 39.623 9.381 38.131 47.512 9008 -3,5 19,9 3 hongkong 27 33.235 33.262 2.019 48.264 50.283 7378 45,2 51,2 4 taiwan 7.589 54.459 62.048 18.794 60.052 78.846 147,6 10,3 27,1 5 korea selatan 6.566 794 7.360 9.229 1.576 10.805 40,6 98,5 46,8 6 jepang 233 0 233 2.489 19 2.508 968 976 7 arab saudi 13.377 215.513 228.890 31.714 105.929 137.643 137 -50,8 -39,9 perhitungan nilai manfaat dan biaya ... (mita adhisti) 25 tahun 2010 mengidentifikasi ada tiga alasan utama tingginya permintaan tki secara berkelanjutan di malaysia, yaitu pertumbuhan ekonomi malaysia yang tinggi, tersedianya institusi jaringan penyalur, sponsor, dan agen penempatan tki, dan faktor kemiripan bahasa, budaya dan sejarah, serta letak wilayah antara indonesia dengan malaysia yang berdekatan. pada tabel 1 dan 2 dapat dilihat bahwa tren negara tujuan tki sejak tahun 1980-an sampai 2010 tidak jauh berbeda; arab saudi, malaysia, singapura, dan negara di kawasan asia timur masih menjadi negara tujuan utama. namun mulai tahun 2011, pemerintah indonesia memberlakukan moratorium pemberhentian pengiriman tki informal sementara ke arab saudi karena banyaknya kasus eksploitasi tki, sehingga terjadi penurunan jumlah tki di sektor informal sebesar 50,8 persen. tingginya kasus eksploitasi tki yang bekerja di sektor informal, mendorong pemerintah untuk meningkatkan penempatan tki di sektor formal, yaitu melalui program government to government (g to g) maupun government to private (g to p). program g to g merupakan kerjasama dalam penempatan tki antara pemerintah indonesia yang diwakilkan oleh badan nasional penempatan dan perlindungan tenaga kerja indonesia (bnp2tki) dengan pemerintah korea selatan (dimulai tahun 2006) dan jepang (dimulai tahun 2008) untuk bekerja di sektor formal. tidak jauh berbeda dengan program g to g,program g to p merupakan kerja sama dalam penempatan tki antara pemerintah indonesia dengan pihak swasta pengguna jasa tki di negara tujuan secara langsung (bnp2tki, 2012). sampai saat ini, program g to p baru mulai dijalankan di malaysia tahun 2010. dengan adanya program tersebut, dapat dilihat pada tabel 1 bahwa jumlah tki formal yang ditempatkan di malaysia maupun di korea selatan terus meningkat. tingginya jumlah tki yang bekerja di luar negeri selama tiga dekade terakhir mengindikasikan adanya faktor pendorong dan penarik bagi mereka untuk migrasi. berdasarkan hasil observasi peneliti secara langsung kepada 113 calon tki (ctki), 49 persen faktor yang mendorong mereka untuk bekerja di luar negeri karena perbedaan upah, 27 persen karena sulit mendapat kerja di dalam negeri, dan 12 persen faktor sosial dan budaya. perbedaan upah dan probabilitas mendapatkan kerja merupakan dua faktor ekonomi utama yang mempengaruhi pengambilan keputusan tki, hal tersebut serupa dengan faktor dalam konsep migrasi yang dipaparkan oleh todaro (1969) maupun massey et al (1993). kedua peneliti tersebut dan greenwood (2005) menambahkan bahwa biaya perpindahan merupakan faktor lain yang mempengaruhi pengambilan keputusan individu untuk migrasi dan secara keseluruhan, pengambilan keputusan didasarkan atas perbandingan antara manfaat yang diterima dengan biaya yang dikeluarkan untuk proses migrasi. pada tabel 3 terlampir data penghasilan yang diperoleh tki yang bekerja di singapura, taiwan, malaysia, dan korea selatan. selain tabel 3. rata-rata penghasilan per tahun tki di negara penempatan berdasarkan penetapan upah, tahun 2011 (dalam rupiah) no bidang pekerjaan status pekerjaan sektor pekerjaan negara penempatan singapura taiwan malaysia korea selatan 1 jasa personal penata laksana rumah tangga (plrt), perawat bayi/orang jompo informal 37.750.050 56.200.320 2 konstruksi buruh/karyawan formal 25.810.500 91.893.120 3 manufaktur kayu buruh /karyawan formal 18.927.700 4 industri elektronik buruh /karyawan formal 17.207.000 91.893.120 5 pertanian / perkebunan buruh/karyawan formal 17.207.000 91.893.120 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 1, april 2014: 23-36 26 korea selatan, pemilihan ketiga negara ini karena termasuk lima besar negara tujuan tki dan untuk korea selatan, pemilihan didasarkan atas pertumbuhan jumlah tki yang terus meningkat dalam lima tahun terakhir. dapat dilihat dalam tabel, untuk keterangan sektor kerja tki di singapura dan taiwan adalah sektor informal, pemilihan didasarkan atas mayoritas tki yang bekerja kedua negara tersebut berada di sektor informal (lihat tabel 2). sedangkan sektor kerja tki malaysia dan korea selatan adalah sektor formal dengan alasan berkebalikan dengan sebelumnya. perbedaan sektor kerja tki mempengaruhi perbedaan standar upah yang ditawarkan kepada mereka. penghasilan per tahun tki di korea selatan paling besar dibandingkan negara lainnya karena mengikuti standar upah minimum pekerja domestik sektor formal di korea selatan, yaitu kurang lebih 7,7 juta per bulannya. sedangkan penghasilan per tahun tki malaysia paling rendah dibandingkan lainnya, walaupun mereka bekerja di sektor formal karena posisi kerja yang berada di level bawah. namun dengan penghasilan 25,8 juta per tahun bagi tki malaysia di bidang konstruksi, nominal tersebut lebih besar dibandingkan dengan rata-rata penghasilan yang diperoleh saat mereka bekerja di indonesia sebelumnya (ditunjukkan dalam tabel 4). selain faktor perbedaan upah, probabilitas mendapatkan pekerjaan menjadi faktor utama migrasi tki. pada tabel 5 dan 6 menunjukkan probabilitas mendapatkan kerja di keempat negara tujuan kerja tki dan di indonesia. konseiga (2005) menjelaskan bahwa probabilitas mendapatkan pekerjaan di luar negeri dapat dihitung dengan persamaan 1 dengan asumsi tenaga kerja dari negara asal telah memiliki jaminan untuk mendapatkan pekerjaan di negara tujuan. persamaan 1 merupakan pengembangan konseiga dari model dan asumsi sederhana yang dijabarkan haris dan todaro (1970) dalam migrasi internal. . 1) lf adalah jumlah tenaga kerja di negara tujuan dan m.nh adalah jumlah tki yang migrasi ke negara tujuan. sesuai dengan asumsi, nilai probabilitas (p2) yang mendekati 1 dalam tabel 6 diindikasikan karena objek tki merupakan tki legal yang telah mendapatkan pekerjaan di negara tujuannya. pada tabel 6 dan 7 dapat dilihat nilai probabilitas mendapatkan pekerja di keempat negara tujuan dengan di indonesia cukup timpang, hal tersebut menunjukkan alasan yang mendukung tki untuk bekerja di luar negeri. perhitungan probabilitas mendapatkan pekerjaan di negara asal dijelaskan oleh riadh (1998) dalam persamaan di bawah ini: tabel 4. rata-rata penghasilan per tahun ctki saat bekerja di indonesia (rupiah) no negara penempatan status pekerjaan rata-rata upah/gaji per bulan rata-rata penghasilan per tahun 1 singapura buruh, karyawan, pegawai dan mandiri-informal 1.425.000 17.100.000 2 taiwan 1.243.000 14.916.000 3 korea selatan 1.313.000 15.756.000 4 malaysia2 1.170.000 14.040.000 tabel 5. probabilitas mendapatkan pekerjaan di negara penempatan, tahun 2011 no negara total tenaga kerja (lf) total migrasi tki (m.nh) p2 1 singapura 3.178.000 47.503 0,9853 2 taiwan 10.709.000 75.562 0,993 3 malaysia 12.220.000 133.906 0,9892 4 korea 24.244.000 11.248 0,9995 perhitungan nilai manfaat dan biaya ... (mita adhisti) 27 2) eo adalah jumlah lapangan pekerjaan di negara asal, u adalah jumlah penduduk di negara asal yang menganggur dan mencari pekerjaan. nilai p3 menunjukkan nilai 0,138 yang mengindikasikan 13,8 persen probabilitas mendapatkan kerja di indonesia. dorongan untuk mendapatkan pekerjaan di luar negeri yang relatif lebih mudah dibandingkan di indonesia dengan penghasilan yang lebih tinggi, sering kali keinginan pencari kerja yang berminat menjadi tki tersebut terkendala dengan biaya administrasi untuk migrasi yang cukup tinggi. dalam tabel 7 terdapat data ratarata biaya perpindahan yang dibutuhkan ctki untuk migrasi keempat negara tujuan. biaya perpindahan ke taiwan paling besar karena besarnya biaya jasa perusahaan agensi tki. penetapan biaya jasa perusahaan agensi tki tertuang dalam peraturan pemerintah minimal sama dengan satu bulan upah atau gaji tki di negara kerjanya. sedangkan untuk ctki korea selatan yang ditempatkan melalui lembaga pemerintah, tidak dikenakan biaya untuk jasa perusahaan agensi tki. ctki malaysia yang masuk dalam program g to p, namun dalam proses penempatannya masih melalui agensi tki dikenakan biaya 2,1 juta rupiah walaupun demikian, biaya perpindahan ctki malaysia paling rendah karena tidak ada biaya pelatihan dan pembinaan. kemiripan bahasa indonesia dengan malaysia, yaitu bahasa melayu tidak mengharuskan ctki untuk mengikuti pelatihan bahasa karena bahasa resmi yang digunakan dalam operasional kerja adalah bahasa melayu. sjaastad (1962) dan davanzo (dalam de jong dan gardner, 1981) menjelaskan dalam proses migrasi biaya perpindahan yang dibutuhkan selain biaya langsung (direct cost, dc), seperti biaya administrasi, akomodasi, maupun transportasi tetapi juga biaya tidak langsung (indirect costs, ic), seperti penghasilan yang hilang (foregone earnings, fe) maupun biaya psikis (psychis costs). penghasilan yang hilang dijelaskan oleh sjaastad (1962) sebagai hilangnya penghasilan dari bekerja karena waktu yang dapat digunakan untuk bekerja teralihkan untuk mencari dan mengikuti pelatihan pekerjaan baru, sehingga persamaan umum yang terbentuk, yaitu: tabel 6. probabilitas mendapatkan pekerjaan di indonesia no keterangan total p3 1 jumlah lapangan pekerjaan (eo) 1.094.729 0,138 2 jumlah penduduk yang menganggur dan mencari kerja (u) 7.910.043 tabel 7. rata-rata biaya perpindahan yang dikeluarkan ctki berdasarkan negara penempatan, tahun 2011 (dalam ribu rupiah) no komponen biaya negara penempatan singapura taiwan malaysia korea selatan 1 tes kesehatan 600 600 300 725 2 paspor 240 110 120 240 3 visa kerja 727 400 470 4 asuransi dan biaya perlindungan 400 400 550 760 5 pembinaan 1.305 150 185 6 pelatihan dan uji kompetensi 1250 3710 153 7 jasa perusahaan 3.150 4.838 2.160 8 airport dan handling 150 100 150 150 9 transportasi lokal 225 100 350 10 akomodasi 2.700 3.840 200 990 11 tiket pesawat keberangkatan 1.349 2.610 1.392 4.655 12 biaya lain-lain 2.245 300 total 13.614 17.485 5.662 8.328 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 1, april 2014: 23-36 28 fe = upah (w0) x waktu (t-n) 3) pada tabel 8 terlampir data rata-rata penghasilan yang dirasakan hilang oleh ctki korea selatan, singapura, dan taiwan selama mengikuti proses migrasi dari proses pendaftaran sampai keberangkatan. sedangkan untuk ctki malaysia, tidak ada data yang ditemukan karena tidak ada ctki malaysia yang mengikuti pelatihan pada periode observasi. pengamatan terhadap ctki ketiga negara tujuan tersebut, penghasilan yang dirasakan hilang paling besar oleh ctki korea selatan, yaitu sebesar 9,2 juta rupiah karena prosedur penempatan program g to g yang lebih kompleks, khususnya dalam proses perekrutan yang harus disertai tanda lulus ujian eps (employment permit system), yaitu uji kemampuan bahasa korea sesuai persyaratan yang diajukan oleh pemerintah korea selatan. berbeda dengan persyaratan ctki korea selatan, ctki taiwan dan singapura tidak memerlukan standar bahasa dalam proses perekrutan dan pelatihan bahasa diberikanpada masa persiapan keberangkatannya selama dua atau tiga bulan. dengan tersedianya data penghasilan, probabilitas mendapatkan kerja, biaya perpindahan langsung dan tidak langsung di keempat negara tujuan, maupun dataprobabilitas mendapatkan kerjadan penghasilan saat bekerja di indonesia, keseluruhan data dapat digunakan dalam perhitungan manfaat dan biaya migrasi yang dikembangkan massey et al. (1993) bagi pencari kerja yang berminat untuk bekerja di luar negeri. hasil perhitungan dapat digunakan sebagai landasan pengambilan keputusan untuk migrasi atau tidak berdasarkan nilai manfaat bersih yang diterima, maupun dapat digunakan untuk memilih negara tujuan kerja berdasarkan manfaat bersih terbesar yang diterima bila bekerja disalah satu negara tujuan kerja. penjelasan singkat atas konsep perilaku gambar 1. konsep umum migrasi internal dan internasional tabel 8. rata-rata penghasilan ctki yang hilang (rupiah) no negara penempatan rata-rata upah/gaji per bulan di indonesia rata-rata waktu kerja yang hilang (bulan) rata-rata penghasilan yang hilang 1 korea selatan 1.313.000 7 9.191.000 2 singapura 1.425.000 3 4.275.000 3 taiwan 1.243.000 3 3.729.000 perhitungan nilai manfaat dan biaya ... (mita adhisti) 29 migrasi individu dilandasi oleh faktor pendorong dari daerah atau negara asal dan faktor penarik dari daerah atau negara tujuan ditunjukkan dalam gambar 1, seperti probabilitas mendapatkan kerja, perbedaan tingkat upah, dan penawaran dan permintaan tenaga kerja. keputusan untuk migrasi oleh individu diharapkan memperoleh nilai ekonomi, yaitu manfaat yang lebih besar dari biaya yang dikeluarkan untuk proses migrasi (massey et al, 1993). dalam konsep neoklasik mikro dijelaskan bahwa kegiatan migrasi sebagai bentuk investasi modal manusia dan nilai investasi tersebut dapat diukur dengan model ekonomi perhitungan manfaat dan biaya. todaro (1969) mengembangkan model perhitungan migrasi internal menjadi dua bagian, yaitu estimasi nilai manfaat bersih (expected return, er) yang individu peroleh bila bekerja di daerah asal dan er yang diperoleh bila bekerja di daerah tujuan. massey et al. dalam studinya mengembangkan model perhitungan migrasi internasional dari konsep model perhitungan todaro, yaitu pengurangan antara manfaat bersih yang diterima bila bekerja di negara tujuan dengan manfaat yang diterima bila bekerja di negara asal (ditunjukkan dalam tabel 9). er(0), vr*(0), dan vu*(0) merupakan estimasi nilai manfaat bersih yang diterima setelah melakukan migrasi yang dihitung pada nilai tahun keberangkatan, yaitu pada (t = 0); (n = t) menunjukkan periode waktu migrasi; p1(t) adalah probabilitas untuk menghindari deportasi dari negara tujuan (1.0 untuk tki legal dan < 1,0 untuk tki ilegal); p2(t) adalah probabilitas mendapatkan pekerjaan di negara tujuan; yd(t) adalah penghasilan jika bekerja di negara tujuan; p3(t) adalah probabilitas mendapatkan pekerjaan dinegara asal; yo(t) adalah penghasilan jika bekerja di negara asal; r adalah faktor diskonto; dan c(0) adalah jumlah total biaya perpindahan (biaya langsung dan tidak langsung) pada t0. model perhitungan migrasi yang ditunjukkan dalam persamaan 4, menurut massey et.al. dan greenwood (2005) selain sebagai landasan pengambilan keputusan untuk migrasi atau tidak tetapi juga dapat digunakan untuk memilih alternatif daerah atau negara tujuan migrasi. pengambilan keputusan awal individu untuk migrasi atau tidak dapat dilihat dari hasil perhitungan. bila hasil perhitungan er(0) > 0, maka individu secara rasional akan memutuskan untuk migrasi, sebaliknya jika er(0) < 0, maka individu seharusnya tidak migrasi dan jika er(0) = 0, maka individu dapat memilih untuk migrasi atau tidak. dalam proses pengambilan keputusan untuk migrasi lebih lanjut, individu mempertimbangkan alternatif daerah atau negara tujuan yang akan memberikan nilai manfaat bersih terbesar. analisis manfaat dan biaya juga dijelaskan oleh mckenna (1980) sebagai salah satu prosedur acuan dalam pengambilan keputusan umum (gambar 1) untuk mencapai efisiensi ekonomi, dengan menghitung seluruh biaya dan manfaat dalam satuan nominal uang. konsep perhitungan yang dapat digunakan dalam menghitung nilai manfaat dan biaya adalah perhitungan pergeseran nilai uang (time value of money) yaitu proyeksi nilai uang di masa depan atas investasi saat ini (future value) dan proyeksi nilai investasi di masa depan ke dalam nilai uang saat ini (present value). pendekatan yang digunakan dalam realisasi perhitungan investasi modal manusia yang tabel 9. model perhitungan manfaat-biaya migrasi massey et al (1993) todaro (1969) migrasi internasional (persamaan 4) ∗   ∗   migrasi internal jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 1, april 2014: 23-36 30 melakukan migrasi menurut beberapa peneliti (todaro, 1969; massey et.al, 1993; greenwood, 2005) adalah perhitungan nilai saat ini, dengan tujuan mengestimasi nilai manfaat bersih yang diterima atas pemajemukan nilai investasi migrasi selama periode tertentu ke depan ke dalam nilai manfaat bersih sebelum keberangkatan. para ekonom secara umum menggolongkan status angkatan kerja menjadi dua, yaitu tenaga kerja dan pengangguran (blanchard, 2009). ehrenberg dan smith (2009) mendefinisikan angkatan kerja lebih terperinci, yaitu penduduk usia 15 tahun ke atas yang sedang bekerja, memiliki pekerjaan namun sementara tidak bekerja, atau sedang mencari pekerjaan. sedangkan ilo (international labor organization) pada tahun 2008, melakukan pembaruan dalam konsep status angkatan kerja, yaitu dengan menggolongkan tenaga kerja menjadi tenaga kerja dalam negeri dan tenaga kerja luar negeri yang ditunjukkan dalam gambar 3. pembaruan konsep angkatan kerja ilo merupakan adopsi dari konsep dan definisi angkatan kerja lfs filipina (the philippine labor force survey) yang dijelaskan oleh rivera dalam konferensi yang diadakan oleh ilo tahun 2008.dasar yang digunakan dalam pengembangan konsep dengan melihat pentingnya peranan tenaga kerja luar negeri bagi pasar tenaga kerja di filipina yang memberikan dampak postif, yaitu membuka kesempatan lebih besar bagi tenaga kerja filipina untuk memilih bekerja di dalam atau luar negeri untuk di indonesia, bps (2010) belum menerapkan pembaruan konsep tenaga kerja ilo, yaitu tenaga kerja dalam negeri dan luar negeri dimasukkan ke dalam status angkatan sumber: mckenna, 1980: 130 gambar 2. proses pembuatan keputusan umum dan analisis manfaat-biaya sumber: ehrenberg dan smith (2009), dilakukan penyesuaian berdasarkan penggolongan angkatan kerja oleh ilo (2008) gambar 3. status angkatan kerja perhitungan nilai manfaat dan biaya ... (mita adhisti) 31 kerja. namun pada dasarnya, tenaga kerja luar negeri merupakan bagian dalam angkatan kerja. istilah tenaga kerja luar negeri di indonesia lebih dikenal dengan tenaga kerja indonesia (tki) dan sebelum tki ditempatkan di luar negeri statusnya adalah calon tki (ctki), yaitu pencari kerja yang telah terdaftar dan lulus seleksi pada pjtki (perusahaan jasa tenaga kerja indonesia) serta telah menandatangani perjanjian penempatan. metode penelitian data yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah data sekunder tahun 2011 dan data primer tahun 2012. sumber data sekunder berdasarkan variabel yang terdapat dalam model studi terlampir dalam tabel 10. adapun data primer digunakan untuk mengukur variabel biaya tidak langsung dalam model studi, diperoleh melalui penyebaran kuesioner kepada 113 ctki yang terdiri dari 36 ctki singapura, 38 ctki taiwan, dan 39 ctki korea selatan. ctki singapura dan taiwan yang diobservasi merupakan ctki yang mengikuti pelatihan di pt. putra jabung perkasa, bekasi, dan ctki korea selatan yang menunggu keberangkatan di blkln gedung korea indonesia technical cooperation centre (kitcc) ciracas–jakarta timur, pada periode juli– agustus 2012. pada pengumpulan data primer, tidak ada ctki malaysia yang diobservasi karena tidak ada ctki malaysia yang mengikuti pelatihan di lokasi observasi pada periode tersebut. model perhitungan estimasi nilai manfaat dan biaya migrasi tki dalam studi ini (persamaan 5 dan 6) mengacu pada model perhitungan migrasi internasional yang dikembangkan oleh massey et.al (persamaan 4). model studi membagi perhitungan biaya perpindahan menjadi dua, yaitu biaya langsung (dc) dan tidak langsung (ic). variabel biaya tidak langsung yang dimasukkan dalam model studi hanyalah penghasilan yang hilang (fe), sedangkan tidak memasukkan variabel biaya psikis karena keterbatasan data. 5) 6) perbedaan perhitungan biaya perpindahan karena ingin melihat estimasi nilai manfaat bersih yang diterima tki setelah dikurangkan dengan ada tidaknya biaya tidak langsung yang dirasakan oleh tki dalam proses migrasi ke negara tujuan. persamaan 5 menghitung biaya perpindahan (c) sebagai akumulasi dari penjumlahan dc dan fe, sedangkan persamaan 6 hanya menghitung dc dan tidak menghitung tabel 10. sumber data sekunder tahun 2011 no nama variabel sumber keterangan 1 jumlah tenaga kerja di negara penempatan laborsta, ilo http://laborsta.ilo.org 2 gaji/upah yang ditawarkan kepada ctki di negara penempatan, jumlah tki yang ditempatkan, biaya yang dikeluarkan, dan masa kontrak kerja bnp2tki dan disnakertrans, yogyakarta pusat studi pengembangan dan informasi (puslitfo), direktorat pelayanan penempatan pemerintah, dan direktorat kerjasama luar negeri 3 pencari kerja dan lowongan kerja terdaftar kemenakertrans direktorat pengembangan pasar kerja 4 suku bunga riil world bank http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/fr.inr.rinr jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 1, april 2014: 23-36 32 fe. dalam persamaan 5 dan 6, fungsi p2 dan p3 pada persamaan 4 digantikan oleh persamaan 1 dan 2. perhitungan er pada kedua persamaan dapat dilakukan dengan data penunjang yang tersedia pada tabel 10 sampai 11. sedangkan untuk variabel p1, karena objek tki dalam studi ini merupakan tki legal yang terdaftar secara resmi, maka dengan asumsi massey et al, nilai p1 dianggapp 1. estimansi manfaat bersih yang diterima tki dihitung selama masa kerjanya, yaitu untuk tki korea selatan dan taiwan ratarata masa kontrak kerjanya adalah tiga tahun dan untuk tki malaysia dan singapura adalah dua tahun (bnp2tki, 2012). perhitungan estimasi manfaat bersih selama masa kerja tki ke depan yang diukur ke dalam nilai sebelum keberangkatan tki (t0) menggunakan perhitungan discounted present value (dpv), faktor diskonto (r) merupakan salah satu variabel penting dalam perhitungan. snyder dan nicholson (2008:606-611) menjelaskan perhitungan dpv dalam pengambilan keputusan investasi, faktor diskonto yang dapat digunakan salah satunya adalah suku bunga riil. berdasarkan data dari world bank, tingkat suku bunga riil indonesia tahun 2011 adalah 3,7 persen. pengembangan model massey et.al pada prinsipnya didasarkan atas konsep investasi modal manusia yang memiliki kesamaan dengan investasi umum atas kepemilikan aset. pelaku investasi akan memperhitungkan nilai investasi saat ini (present value, pv) dan di masa depan (future value, fv). perhitungan fv sederhana yang dijelaskan oleh brealey et al (2009: 112) adalah: fv = (present value/initial investment) x (1+r)t fv = pv (1+r)t 7) (chiang dan wainwright, 2005: 262-266) pada masa depan akan terjadi pemajemukan modal sejalan dengan pertambahan tahun (t) merupakan hasil dari pemajemukan suku bunga (r) per tahunnya, bila hal ini terjadi secara kontinu tidak terbatas (t→∞), maka fvmenjadi: lim → 8) di mana er = (1+r) pv = , atau pv = fv.(er)-t | pv = fv.e-rt 9) e adalah bentuk konvergen saat t→∞ yang mendekati nilai 2,71828... pembuktian nilai e dari mencari deret maclaurin. persamaan (9) menunjukkan bentuk perhitungan pv yang menjadi basis perhitungan er(0) dalam studi ini, maka fv menunjukkan fungsi dari dan e-rt merupakan nilai diskonto (discounted value, dv). dalam persamaan er studi ini, penggunaan istilah fv akan diganti menjadi nfv (net future value) karena merupakan hasil pengutabel 11. keterangan variabel model studi no simbol variabel keterangan variabel satuan variabel dependen 1 er (0) estimasi nilai manfaat bersih pada t0 rupiah variabel independen 2 p1 probabilitas menghindari deportasi 3 yd penghasilan per tahun yang diterima tki di negara penempatan rupiah 4 yo penghasilan per tahun yang diterima tki di indonesia rupiah 5 e bilangan eksponensial 6 r suku bunga riil persen 7 t tahun dasar yang digunakan (2011) 8 n masa kontrak kerja tahun 9 dc biaya perpindahan langsung rupiah 10 fe penghasilan tki yang dirasakan hilang rupiah perhitungan nilai manfaat dan biaya ... (mita adhisti) 33 rangan antara estimasi penghasilan yang diterima tki di negara penempatan (p1.p2.yd = fv1) dengan estimasi penghasilan yang diterima tki bila bekerja di indonesia (p3.yo = fv2). alat analisis yang digunakan dengan pendekatan matematika untuk perhitungan dpv perbedaan penghasilan tki antara negara tujuan dan indonesia, yaitu fungsi intergral tertentu. todaro (1969) menjelaskan bahwa perhitungan dpv dilakukan untuk mengukur besaran penghasilan yang diterima pada daerah tujuan dan daerah asal dengan periode waktu ke depan (future time horizon, tn) yang sama ke dalam nilai saat ini (t0). penggunaan fungsi integral tertentu karena pembatasan periode waktu (n) perhitungan (chiang dan wainwright, 2005: 468469). dalam studi ini, n yang digunakan disesuaikan dengan masa kontrak kerja tki di negara tujuan. nfv e‐ dt e e e 10)* * persamaan (10) dikembangkan dari model investasi fungsi integral yang dijelaskan oleh chiang dan wainwright (2005: 468-469) nilai dpv penghasilan bersih tki pada persamaan (10) yang dikurangkan dengan biaya perpindahan (c) merupakan hasil akhir estimasi manfaat bersih (er) yang diterima tki. maka persamaan er(0) secara umum dapat ditulis er(0) = dpv– c. hasil dan pembahasan hasil perhitungan estimasi nilai manfaat bersih migrasi tki di empat negara penempatan dalam tabel 12 terlihat dari hasil er5 dan er6. pada er5 dengan masa kerja tiga tahun, manfaat yang diterima tki yang bekerja di korea selatan dan taiwan adalah sebesar 235 dan 130,8 juta rupiah. perbedaan penghasilan yang diperoleh oleh tki di kedua negara karena perbedaan sektor kerja di masing-masing negara. tki yang bekerja di korea selatan bekerja di sektor formal dengan standar upah relatif lebih tinggi dibandingkan tki taiwan yang bekerja di sektor informal. perolehan manfaat bersih tki malaysia dan singapura dengan masa kontrak kerja dua tahun sebesar 39 dan 48,5 juta rupiah. berbeda dengan kasus tki yang bekerja di korea selatan dan taiwan, yaitu tki yang bekerja di sektor formal mendapatkan nilai manfaat bersih yang lebih besar tetapi dalam kasus tki malaysia dan singapura, tki yang bekerja di sektor informal di singapura mendapatkan nilai manfaat bersih yang lebih besar dibandingkan tki malaysia yang bekerja di sektor formal. standar upah bagi tenaga kerja di malaysia relatif lebih rendah dibandingkan di singapura karena perekonomian singapura yang lebih maju dibandingkan di malaysia, sehingga standar kesejahteraan di singapura lebih tinggi. sedangkan er 6, estimasi nilai manfaat bersih yang diterima oleh tki yang tidak merasa kehilangan waktu kerja lebih besar dibandingkan t = n 0 tabel 12. ringkasan hasil estimasi nilai manfaat bersih migrasi tki (dalam rupiah) negara penempatan korea selatan (n=3) taiwan (n=3) malaysia* (n=2) singapura (n=2) 1 discounted present value (dpv) 251.999.605 152.051.093 44.819.748 66.462.235 2 biaya perpindahan (c = dc + fe) 17.519.000 21.214.000 5.662.000 17.889.000 biaya langsung (dc) 8.328.000 17.485.000 5.662.000 13.614.000 penghasilan yang hilang (fe) 9.191.000 3.729.000 4.275.000 3 estimasi nilai manfaat bersih (er) er 5 (dpv c) 234.480.605 130.837.093 39.157.748 48.573.235 er 6 (dpv -dc) 243.671.605 134.566.093 39.157.748 52.848.235 *perhitungan er tki malaysia: tki di bidang konstruksi jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 1, april 2014: 23-36 34 tki yang merasa kehilangan waktu kerja. pada tabel 13 terlihat selisih estimasi nilai manfaat bersih yang diterima oleh tki yang merasa kehilangan waktu kerja dan tidak pada persamaan er 5 dan 6. tki korea selatan yang tidak merasakan kehilangan waktu kerja hanya memperoleh manfaat 3,92 persen lebih besar dibandingkan manfaat yang diterima tki yang menghitung kehilangan kesempatan kerja sebagai biaya. selisih er 5 dan 6 tki malaysia adalah nol karena dalam komponen biaya perpindahan tki malaysia, nilai penghasilan yang hilang adalah nol (fe=0), sehingga c = dc. bila dilihat dari hasil perhitungan er 5 dan 6 pada tabel 13, perolehan manfaat bersih tki korea selatan jauh berbeda dibandingkan tki singapura dan malaysia karena perbedaan perhitungan masa kontrak kerja yang digunakan. pada tabel 14 ditampilkan hasil perhitungan dari penyesuaian masa kontrak kerja dari tiga tahunmenjadidua tahun. dilihat dari hasil perhitungan ertki korea selatan dan taiwan dengan periode kerja dua tahun, estimasi nilai manfaat bersih yang diterima tki korea selatan tetap paling besar dibandingkan dengan tki di tiga negara lainnya, yaitu sebesar 153,6 juta rupiah, tki taiwan 82 juta rupiah, tki singapura 48,5 juta rupiah, dan tki malaysia 39 juta rupiah. berdasarkan hasil tersebut, pencari kerja indonesia yang berminat untuk bekerja di keempat negara sebaiknya menjadikan perolehan nilai manfaat bersih sebagai bahan pertimbangan dalam memilih negara tujuan kerja. korea selatan merupakan negara yang potensial sebagai negara tujuan kerja baru bagi para pencari kerja karena memberikan nilai manfaat paling besar. simpulan hasil pembahasan perhitungan estimasi nilai manfaat bersih sebelumnya dapat disimpulkan adalah: 1) variabel yang dapat digunakan untuk menghitung nilai manfaat dan biaya tki yang bekerja di luar negeri adalah probabilitas menghindari deportasi (p1), probabilitas mendapatkan pekerjaan di negara tujuan (p2) dan di negara asal (p3), penghasilan yang diperoleh di negara tujuan (yd) dan di negara asal (yo), masa kontrak kerja (n), suku bunga riil (r), dan biaya perpindahan (c); 2) estimasi nilai manfaat bersih yang diterima tki yang bekerja di korea selatan dan taiwan selama masa kerja tiga tahun adalah sebesar 234,5 dan 130,8 juta rupiah. sedangkan untuk tabel 13. persentase selisih estimasi nilai manfaat bersih pada persamaan (2) dan (3) no negara penempatan er(5) er (6) persentase selisih (%δ) er (5) dan er (6) 1 korea selatan 234.480.605 243.671.605 3,92 2 taiwan 130.837.093 134.566.093 2,85 3 malaysia 39.157.748 39.157.748 0 4 singapura 48.573.235 52.848.235 8,80 *nilai er (2) dan (3) dalam rupiah tabel 14. ringkasan hasil alternatif estimasi nilai manfaat bersih migrasi tki (dalam rupiah) negara penempatan korea selatan (n=2) taiwan (n=2) 1 discounted present value (dpv) 171.182.701 103.287.927 2 biaya perpindahan (c = dc + fe) 17.519.000 21.214.000 biaya langsung (dc) 8.328.000 17.485.000 penghasilan yang hilang (fe) 9.191.000 3.729.000 3 estimasi nilai manfaat bersih (er) er5 (dpv c) 153.663.701 82.073.927 er 6 (dpv dc) 162.854.701 85.802.927 perhitungan nilai manfaat dan biaya ... (mita adhisti) 35 masa kerja dua tahun, estimasi nilai manfaat bersih yang diterima tki singapura sebesar 48,5 juta rupiah dan 39 juta rupiah untuk tki malaysia; 3) korea selatan merupakan negara tujuan bekerja karena memberikan nilai manfaat yang paling tinggi dibandingkan tiga negara lainnya; 4) pencari kerja indonesia yang ingin bekerja selain di empat negara yang dikaji dalam studi, dapat menghitung estimasi nilai manfaat bersih untuk bekerja di negara tujuan lainnya dengan menggunakan model perhitungan dalam studi ini. daftar pustaka brealey, r.a., myers, s. c., & marcus, a. j. (2009). fundamental of corporate finance. 6d ed. new york: mcgraw-hill companies, inc. blanchard, o. (2009). macroeconomics.5ded. new jearsey: pearson education, inc. chiang, a. c., & wainwright, k. (2005). fundamental methods of mathematical economics. 4d ed. new york: mcgraw-hill companies, inc. de jong, g.f. & gardner r.w (editor). 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(2010). lowongan dan pencari kerja terdaftar di indonesia. tersedia pada website: http:// pusdatinaker.balitfo.depnakertrans.go.id/katalog/ download.php?g=2&c=13 dan http:// pusdatinaker.balitfo.depnakertrans.go.id/katalog/download.php?g=2& c=12, diakses pada 13 mei 2012. employment permit system (eps). (2012). hukum hak: peraturan-peraturan tentang masa kerja. tersedia pada website: http://www.eps.go.kr/in/duty/duty_01. jsp, diakses pada 13 oktober 2012. international labor organization (ilo). (2008). redefining the labor force framework: some inputs from the phillipine experience (editha b. rivera). tersedia pada website: http://www.ilo.org/global/statisticsand-databases/meetings-andevents/wcms_100704/lang-en/index.htm, diakses pada 12 juni 2012. keputusan menteri tenaga kerja dan transmigrasi republik indonesia no. 104a/ 2002: penempatan tenaga kerja indonesia ke luar negeri. tersedia pada website: http://www.portalhr.com/wp-content/uploads/data/pdfs/pdf_peraturan/ 1204258381.pdf, diakses pada 12 juni 2012 world bank. (2012). how we classify countries. tersedia pada website: http://data. worldbank.org/about/country-classifications dan http://data. worldbank.org/ indicator/ny.gnp.pcap.cd,diakses pada 24 oktober 2012. jesp | jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan article type: research paper ramadhan, eid ul fitr, and inflation: lesson from indonesian subnational data samsubar saleh1, dyah titis kusuma wardani2,4, and madha adi ivantri3* abstract: inflation has always been being seen as one of the most important macroeconomic variables in modern economies. every year, media especially in muslim countries has constantly reported that inflation rates increase during the islamic holy month of ramadhan and eid ul fitr. remarkably, there has been hitherto almost no serious study focusing on the empirical relationship between ramadhan, eid ul fitr and inflation. this research aims to examine empirically whether ramadhan and eid ul fitr have a systematic effect on inflation. this research uses regression analysis technique and involves data from 66 local economies in indonesia between january 2000 and december 2017. the finding of this paper is ramadhan and eid ul fitr have a positive effect on inflation. the possible reasons for explaining the results is the high of public demand. to overcome inflation in indonesia not only from the role of government in controlling inflation rate, but also the role of muslims community in controlling consumption. keywords: ramadhan; eid ul fitr; inflation; indonesia; local economies. jel classification: b55; e00; e31; r20; z12. introduction inflation has always been being seen as one of the most important macroeconomic variables in modern economies. it is this variable that will possibly weaken or even damage decades of economic growth if unleashed and not curbed (barro, 1995; gregorio, 1992; vinayagathasan, 2013; bittencourt, 2012; hung, 2003). it is this variable that is concerned by central bankers globally and forces them to take monetary policies that are not always popular. every year, media especially in muslim countries has constantly reported that inflation rates increase during the islamic holy month of ramadhan and eid ul fitr. many reports have also acknowledged the persistent increase of inflation rate in the months within which ramadhan and eid ul fitr fall (fao, 2010; the world bank, 2013). given that ramadhan and eid ul fitr fall in different month in different years, they cannot simply be treated as seasonal adjustment measure like christmas or solar new year. affiliation: 1 universitas gadjah mada yogyakarta, yogyakarta, indonesia. 2 international islamic university malaysia, malaysia. 3 unu surakarta, surakarta, indonesia. 4 universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta, yogyakarta, indonesia. *correspondence: madha_adi@yahoo.com this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.20.2.5020 citation: saleh, s., wardani, d. t. k., & ivantri, m. a. (2019). ramadhan, eid ul fitr, and inflation: lesson from indonesian subnational data. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 20(2), 135-150. article history received: 30 june 2019 accepted: 22 october 2019 mailto:madha_adi@yahoo.com http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/6576 saleh, wardani, & ivantri ramadhan, eid ul fitr, and inflation: lesson from indonesian subnational data understanding the effect that ramadhan and eid ul fitr may possibly have on inflation is therefore very important, not only for the making of appropriate monetary policies but also the making of business decisions. economic analyses on inflation are hardly new (laidler & parkin, 1975). there have been a bulk of works examining the cause and consequences on inflation using both theoretical (saad-filho 2000; fuhrer, kodrzycki, little, olivei, & samuelson, 2009) and empirical approaches (gali & gertler, 1999; orphanides, 2002; kaihatsu & nakajima, 2018; montes & da cunha, 2018; xu, chang, lobont & su, 2016). however, the dependence of inflation on ramadhan and eid ul fitr seems to be missed. there are at least two mechanisms through which ramadhan and eid ul fitr may affect inflation. the first is changes in aggregate demand. during ramadhan, muslims are discouraged from consumption. if muslims do follow what islam teaches, aggregate demand should decrease. however, muslims behavior do not necessarily follow what islam teaches. besides, ramadhan is also the month of charity. it is in this month that the best charity is to be given, mostly to support the poor and the needy. since the mpc is higher in the case of poor and ordinary people than it is for the extremely wealthy, the transfer of income from the wealthy to the poor may thus increases aggregate demand. the second mechanism through which ramadhan and eid ul fitr may affect inflation is changes in the aggregate supply. during daylight hours, muslims cannot eat nor drink. people stay up late to break their fast and get up in the early morning hours so they can eat before daybreak. this results in shorter sleeping hours which can cause people to become more lethargic later on in the day. consequently, the productivity of workers may decline as the workers are less fit than normal. the employers decide to transfer the increased wages into prices, which triggers inflation. this is consistent with the keynesian explanation of inflation. the third mechanism through which ramadhan and eid ul fitr may affect inflation is changes in people’s expectations about future inflation. expected inflation is among the factors important for wage formation (goretti, 2008; holland, 1984; nickell & quintini, 2003). employees expecting higher inflation may require higher wages to compensate for their higher cost of living. firms, in order to uphold profit margins, may in turn shift the higher costs of labor onto consumers. higher consumer prices may further induce more demands for higher nominal wages, leading to a self-sustaining upward trend in price levels. expected inflation is also important for investment decision (huizinga, 1993; mills, 1996). firms expecting higher inflation may anticipate that consumer demand will decrease, while costs of inputs will increase. besides, firms expecting higher inflation may anticipate that the central bank’s reference interest rates will rise to deal with inflation. these induce the firms to set lower revenue and selling targets and further delay their production and investment plans, leading to potential supply shocks. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 136 saleh, wardani, & ivantri ramadhan, eid ul fitr, and inflation: lesson from indonesian subnational data it should be noted that more intense levels of competition in the labor markets and in the markets for goods and services may help reduce the risk of a wage price spiral. for example, holz & mehrotra (2013) recently find that, in china, firms do not fully pass through increases in labor costs to consumer prices, in both the tradable goods sector and in the economy as a whole. finally, a credible monetary policy may help reduce expected price and reduce the inflationary effect of government-set fuel price changes (perrier & amano, 2000). by credible it means that the central bank and the government in general are believed to actually carry out their stated plans. if the monetary policy taken to accompany changes in government-set fuel prices is credible, inflation uncertainty should be less pronounced. remarkably, there has been hitherto almost no serious study focusing on the empirical relationship between ramadhan, eid ul fitr and inflation. so, this study contributes to the exiting literature by determining the relationship between ramadhan, eid ul fitr and inflation by two aspects: firstly, few scientific papers treat these events are at best placed as control variables for other variables of interest (grigorian & kock, 2010). secondly, no scientific papers treat this relationship in indonesia. finally, we analyze this relationship in indonesia on the grounds that indonesia is the largest muslim population in the world and has a level of religiosity in the country of 99%, which indicates that religion plays an important role in daily life and society (crabtree, 2010). our research have limitations, which also serve to highlight future research opportunities. we acknowledge that our empirical data do not go beyond what the direct observation were able to articulate and we were able to interpret. for example, we didn’t observe the lack distribution of good as inflation determinant. furthermore, we only observe the selected variables with consideration of data availability. we tried to minimize these limitations by control variables, which is influence of inflation. research method we use panel least square method to investigate the effect of ramadhan and eid ul fitr on inflation. according to baltagi (2005), there are three approaches that can be used to estimate panel data, such as pooled ordinary least square (pls, fixed effect (fe), and random effect (re) model. we use chow test, hausman test, and lagrange multiplier test to choose the most appropriate model. however, to make sure that the conclusion drawn is not due to the choice of estimation model, the regressions in this research are also reestimated using another model to compare (we using fe in this research). the regression equation is provided by: ∆𝑃𝑖,𝑡 = 𝛽0 + 𝛽1𝑅𝑡 + 𝛽2𝐸𝑡 + 𝛽3𝑋𝑡 + 𝛽3𝑍𝑖,𝑡 + 𝜖𝑖,𝑡 where the dependent variable, ∆𝑃, is a month-to-month local inflation rate and the key independent variables, 𝑅 and 𝐸, are dummies for ramadhan and for eid ul fitr jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 137 saleh, wardani, & ivantri ramadhan, eid ul fitr, and inflation: lesson from indonesian subnational data respectively. the binary variable for ramadhan takes the value one for every month within which ramadhan begins and zero otherwise. similarly, the binary variable for eid ul fitr takes the value one for all the months within which eid ul fitr takes place and zero otherwise. the roman letters, 𝑋 and z, denote two vectors of control variables. the former includes control variables whose values are shared to all cities in period 𝑡, namely the percent change in international oil prices, the percent change in international food prices, idr per us$ exchange rate, broad money (m2) supply, and dummies for the start of ramadhan and the eid ul fitr day. by contrast, the later includes a control variable whose values are specific to each city in period 𝑡, namely the percent change in local minimum wage. data for the beginning of ramadhan and eid ul fitr are collected from various resources. data for international oil prices are approximated using europe brent spot prices (fob) published by the united states’ energy information administration (eia), while international food prices are approximated using the food and agriculture organization (fao)’s food price index. data for the idr per us$ exchange rate and broad money (m2) supply are taken from bank indonesia, while information on fuel price increases and fuel price decreases are collected from various sources, especially the website of the ministry of energy and mineral resources. in this research we uses panel data observations from 66 local economies in indonesia between january 2000 and december 2017. the selection of sample cities is driven largely by data availability. a growing body of the panel data literature concludes that panel data models are likely to exhibit substantial cross-sectional dependence in the errors (de hoyos and sarafidis, 2006). pesaran developed test to check cross-sectional dependence (cd). the null hypothesis of cd test states that there exist no cd among sample countries. the alternative hypothesis states there exist cd among sample countries (pesaran, 2004; 2007). result and discussion basic result for the relationship of ramadhan and eid ul fitr on inflation in this section, we report basic regression results the relationship between ramadhan and eid ul fitr to inflation. based on the panel data test (chow test, lagrange multiplier test, and hausman test) we found that the best estimator for regression model is pooled ordinary least square pls (see appendix b.1; b.2; dan b.3). the regression output of pls is as table 1. in column 1, the regression includes only an intercept the dummy for the start of ramadhan and dummy for the eid ul fitr day. the coefficient of ramadhan and eid ul fitr day are all positive and significantly different from zero at the 1% level. in column 2, other independent variables are added, the coefficients of the dummies for the start of ramadhan and the eid ul fitr day are all remains unchanged. the estimates in column 2 indicate that, holding other variables constant, local inflation rates in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 138 saleh, wardani, & ivantri ramadhan, eid ul fitr, and inflation: lesson from indonesian subnational data will be 0.846 percent higher in the months of ramadhan fall than in other months. the estimates in column 2 also indicate that, assuming no change in other regression, local inflation rates will be 0.576 percent higher in the months of eid ul fitr fall than in other months. in columns 3, we add the dummy for gasoline price increase and for gasoline price decrease. again, our coefficient of interest, namely the start of ramadhan and the eid ul fitr day the remains positive and significant at the 1% level. in addition, we find that local inflation rates in indonesia will be higher in the months with gasoline price increase than in other months with no gasoline price increase. in columns 4-6, we regress dummy for the start of ramadhan and for the eid ul fitr day with alternative designation, where takes the value of 1 in the succeeding months if the first day of ramadhan took place within the final week and the same procedure for eid ul fitr (the difference between basic and alternative designation see appendix a). we find that the coefficient of the dummies for ramadhan and for the eid ul fitr day remain significant at the 1 percent level. this result indicates that the relationship between ramadhan and eid ul fitr and inflation is persistent. meanwhile, estimates using the fixed effect model (fem) indicate a cross-sectional dependency problem (see appendix b.4), so we use pcse estimates for robust results. table 2 shows the results from estimating using panel-corrected standard error (pcse). the coefficient of ramadhan and eid ul fitr day are positive and significant in all specifications at the 1% and 5% level. in terms of interpretation, using column 2, we find that local inflation rates in indonesia will be 0.963 percent higher in the months of ramadhan fall than in other months. the estimates in column 2 also indicate that local inflation rates will be 0.532 percent higher in the months of eid ul fitr fall than in other months. according to the result pls and pcse estimator, the value of r square on all models have a low value, its mean variables outside the model have a greater influence on dependent variables. using table 1 column 2, the value of r square from pls estimator are 8.5 percent, meaning that variance in the independent variables can explain by 8.5 percent on the variance local inflation in indonesia. meanwhile, using table 2 column 2, the value of r square from pcse estimator are 8.6 percent, meaning that variance in the independent variables can explain by 8 percent on the variance local inflation in indonesia. however, the findings from both the pls and pcse estimators are broadly consistent and confirm the finding in line with our theoretical model that ramadhan and eid ul fitr matters for inflation or in other word the month of ramadhan and eid ul fitr increases local inflation in indonesia. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 139 saleh, wardani, & ivantri ramadhan, eid ul fitr, and inflation: lesson from indonesian subnational data jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 140 table 1 ramadhan, eid ul fitr, and inflation: the basic results using pls pooled least squares (pls) variables (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) inflation inflation inflation inflation inflation inflation dummy for the start of ramadhan 0.865*** (0.03) 0.846*** (0.04) 0.872*** (0.04) dummy for the eid ul fitr day 0.540*** (0.03) 0.551*** (0.03) 0.576*** (0.03) dummy for the start of ramadhan (alternative) 1.026*** (0.03) 1.018*** (0.04) 1.053*** (0.04) dummy for the eid ul fitr day (alternative) 0.373*** (0.03) 0.381*** (0.03) 0.416*** (0.03) percent increase in minimum wage -0.000 (0.00) -0.000 (0.00) -0.000 (0.00) -0.000 (0.00) broad money (m2) supply 0.000*** (0.00) 0.000** (0.00) 0.000*** (0.00) 0.000* (0.00) idr per us$ exchange rate 0.000*** (0.00) -0.000*** (0.00) 0.000*** (0.00) 0.000*** (0.00) percent change in int’l food price 0.006*** (0.00) -0.005*** (0.00) 0.006*** (0.00) 0.005*** (0.00) percent change in int’l oil price 0.008*** (0.00) 0.007*** (0.00) 0.008*** (0.00) 0.007*** (0.00) dummy for gasoline price increase 0.437*** (0.04) dummy for gasoline price decrease -0.087 (0.08) dummy for gasoline price increase (alternative) 0.591*** (0.04) dummy for gasoline price decrease (alternative) -0.075 (0.08) observations 11,928 10,942 10,942 11,928 10,942 10,942 r-squared 0.071 0.085 0.093 0.080 0.095 0.110 standard errors in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 saleh, wardani, & ivantri ramadhan, eid ul fitr, and inflation: lesson from indonesian subnational data jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 141 table 2 ramadhan, eid ul fitr, and inflation: re-estimated using pcse panel-corrected standard error (pcse) variables (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) inflation inflation inflation inflation inflation inflation dummy for the start of ramadhan 0.973*** (0.17) 0.963*** (0.18) 0.985*** (0.18) dummy for the eid ul fitr day 0.519*** (0.17) 0.532*** (0.17) 0.544*** (0.17) dummy for the start of ramadhan (alternative) 1.121*** (0.17) 1.125*** (0.18) 1.159*** (0.17) dummy for the eid ul fitr day (alternative) 0.385** (0.17) 0.388** (0.17) 0.411** (0.17) percent increase in minimum wage -0.001 (0.00) -0.000 (0.00) -0.000 (0.00) -0.000 (0.00) broad money (m2) supply 0.000 (0.00) 0.000 (0.00) 0.000 (0.00) 0.000 (0.00) idr per us$ exchange rate 0.000 (0.00) 0.000 (0.00) 0.000 (0.00) 0.000 (0.00) percent change in int’l food price -0.006 (0.00) -0.005 (0.00) -0.006* (0.00) -0.005 (0.00) percent change in int’l oil price 0.007 (0.01) 0.006 (0.01) dummy for gasoline price increase 0.276 (0.20) dummy for gasoline price decrease -0.276 (0.41) dummy for gasoline price increase (alternative) 0.444** (0.20) dummy for gasoline price decrease (alternative) -0.250 (0.40) observations 9,816 9,054 9,054 9,816 9,054 9,054 r-squared 0.071 0.080 0.085 0.082 0.091 0.102 number of dcode 66 59 59 66 59 59 robust standard errors in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 result for the relationship ramadhan and eid ul fitr dummies elaborated on inflation furthermore, we shows the result with ramadhan and eid ul fitr dummies elaborated. ramadhan dummies elaborated in four parts, dummy for before the month of ramadhan, dummy for the beginning of ramadhan, dummy for the middle of ramadhan, and dummy for the end of ramadhan. while, eid ul fitr dummies elaborated in two parts, dummy for the eid ul fitr day and dummy for middle eid ul fitr day. each part reflect one third of the month, as ten days in the beginning, middle and end of month. this elaboration was conducted to find out more in detail about inflation movements around the month of ramadhan and eid ul fitr. saleh, wardani, & ivantri ramadhan, eid ul fitr, and inflation: lesson from indonesian subnational data jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 142 table 3 the results with ramadhan and eid ul fitr dummies elaborated pooled least squares (pls) variables (1) (2) (3) inflation inflation inflation dummy for before the month of ramadhan -0.241*** (0.05) -0.296*** (0.05) -0.383*** (0.05) dummy for the beginning of ramadhan 0.581*** (0.06) 0.592*** (0.06) 0.686*** (0.06) dummy for the middle of ramadhan 0.274*** (0.06) 0.294*** (0.06) 0.300*** (0.06) dummy for the end of ramadhan 0.730*** (0.06) 0.717*** (0.06) 0.683*** (0.06) dummy for the eid ul fitr day -0.191*** (0.06) -0.188*** (0.06) -0.160*** (0.06) dummy for middle eid ul fitr day 0.276*** (0.05) 0.285*** (0.05) 0.305*** (0.05) percent increase in minimum wage -0.000 (0.00) -0.000 (0.00) broad money (m2) supply 0.000** (0.00) 0.000 (0.00) idr per us$ exchange rate -0.000*** (0.00) -0.000*** (0.00) percent change in int’l food price -0.006*** (0.00) -0.006*** (0.00) percent change in int’l oil price 0.008*** (0.00) 0.008*** (0.00) dummy for gasoline price increase 0.506*** (0.04) dummy for gasoline price decrease -0.079 (0.08) observations 11,928 10,942 10,942 r-squared 0.105 0.121 0.131 standard errors in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 in table 3, the coefficients each part of dummies for ramadhan and for eidul fitr day are all significant at the 1 percent level. in terms of interpretation, using in column 3, the coefficients from pls estimator are -0.383, 0.686, 0.300, 0.683, -0.160, 0.305 for before the month of ramadhan, the beginning of ramadhan, the middle of ramadhan, the end of ramadhan, the eid ul fitr day and middle eid ul fitr day. we can see that the effect of dummy for before the month of ramadhan on local inflation is negative and statistically significant. the magnitude of -0.383 indicates that local inflation rates in indonesia will be 0.383 percent lower in the month before ramadhan fall than in the months outside the events of ramadhan. in addition, it was also found that the effect of dummy for the beginning of ramadhan, dummy for the middle of ramadhan, and dummy for the end of ramadhan on inflation are all positive and statistically significant. the magnitude of 0.686, 0.300, 0.683 implies that local inflation rates in indonesia will be increase 0.686 percent saleh, wardani, & ivantri ramadhan, eid ul fitr, and inflation: lesson from indonesian subnational data in the beginning of ramadhan, 0.300 percent in the middle of ramadhan, and 0.683 percent in the end of ramadhan. then, we found that the beginning of eid ul fitr is a negative and statistically significant effect on local inflation. the magnitude of 0.16 indicates that local inflation rates in indonesia will be 0.16 percent lower in the beginning of eid ul fitr than in the months outside the events of eid ul fitr. finally, in the middle eid ul fitr is found to have a positive and statistically significant on local inflation. the magnitude of 0.365 indicates that local inflation rates in indonesia will be 0.365 percent higher in the middle of eid ul fitr than in the months outside the events of eid ul fitr. in more detail, the effect of ramadhan and eid ul fitr on inflation have statistically significant with an interesting pattern. before ramadhan shows a negative influence on inflation and when ramadhan fall it has a positive influence. then, in the beginning of eid ul fitr shows negative effect, furthermore in the middle of eid ul fitr shows positive effect. before the fall of ramadhan shows a negative influence, it cause the demand of muslim community has not increased and the success of the government's anticipation. we well known that inflation in ramadhan as a seasonal event which is always anticipated by the government of indonesia. anticipation by the government is usually in the form of maintaining the availability of goods and affordability of prices on the market. technically, government efforts are carried out in several ways such as increasing monitoring and prevention of hoarding, ensuring the smoothness of supply chain operations, and market operations. then, during ramadhan shows a positive influence on inflation, which is caused by an increase in the demand for muslims. theoretically, inflation can arise from the demand side when there is excess demand in the interaction between the demand and supply side of an economy (demand-pull inflation). the ac nielsen study in ramadhan showed sales of consumer goods in indonesia rose 9.2 percent. biscuit sales, for example, increased 11 times, canned fish and meat doubled, sausages and meatballs increased by 34 percent. it's in the modern market. in traditional markets there is also a high increase in demand (utomo, 2016). increased consumption of muslims in the month of ramadhan is a contradiction with the message of worship of ramadhan and islamic teachings. one central theme of ramadhan is the control of desire, nafsu. ramadhan is largely about learning to control desires such as hunger, sexual drive, emotions (hellman, 2008) and intended to give the fasting person a deeper understanding of what it is to be poor and how the less fortunate suffer (ahmed, 2001). in addition, islamic teachings instruct humans not to over-consume (quran 7:31). beyond the fasting that is central to ramadhan, the entire month is a period of increased spirituality and religious contemplation for muslims, specially on charity. alongside the rituals of prayer and fasting, giving is a natural element of this auspicious month. as a result, during ramadhan, much charitable giving is done by the prosperous community to the poor and less fortunate. this has an impact on increasing the purchasing power of low income communities, so will be increase of demand. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 143 saleh, wardani, & ivantri ramadhan, eid ul fitr, and inflation: lesson from indonesian subnational data in addition, the economic mechanism that is built in the system of state and society also allows the occurrence of ramadhan inflation. the constitutive obligation to provide tunjangan hari raya (thr) or religious holiday allowances to the workforce and massive remittances from overseas workers have increased demand in the market and also the amount of money supply. the more money circulating as a result the lower the real value of money. prices that have risen to the market mechanism become increasingly burdensome because the real value of money goes down. this study also shows in the beginning eid ul fitr gave a negative influence on inflation and in the middle of the month had a positive influence. the negative impact was caused by a decrease in the demand of muslim communities. we know that all the needs of muslim communities at the beginning of eid al-fitr have been prepared during the month of ramadhan. then in the middle of eid ul fitr, a positive impact arose because muslims returned to normal activities and increased demand as a result of their return to urban areas. as before, we comparing the results of a regression using pls and pcse estimator that our variable of interest namely ramadhan and eid ul fitr, in all have the sign and significance remains unchange. for the result using pcse see appendix c. conclusion this paper attempts to answer the question of whether ramadhan and eid ul fitr can stimulate inflation. we are using a panel of 66 local economies in indonesia for the period january 2000 and december 2017. our main results can be summed up as follows. first, within pls, we find that the effect of ramadhan and eid ul fitr on local inflation is positive and statistically significant. second, within fem estimator, we find the same conclusion. the possible reasons for explaining the results is the high of public demand in the moment of ramadhan and eid ul fitr. this is driven by the lack of muslim awareness of the essence of fasting as a form of self-control. in fact, muslims in general will spend more in ramadhan and eid ul fitr. furthermore, the drive for charity and religious holiday allowances in the month of ramadhan and eid al-fitr is also a cause of increased aggregate demand. to enhance academic understanding of this subject, this research can be extended by employing mediating or moderating models in order to examine the conditions which ramadhan and eid ul fitr could affect inflation. they can also examine the roles of muslim population, religiosity, and law enforcement in advancing the relationship islamic holy month and inflation. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 144 saleh, wardani, & ivantri ramadhan, eid ul fitr, and inflation: lesson from indonesian subnational data jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 145 appendix table 4 details on the variable definitions and sources monthly local inflation rates month-to-month percent change in the local consumer price index. taken from the statistics indonesia’s website of (bps 2015). dummy for the start of ramadhan (basic designation) binary variable given the value 1 for all the months with the first day of ramadhan and zero otherwise. constructed using data collected from the ministry of religious affairs’ releases and media archives. dummy for the start of ramadhan (alternative designation) binary variable comparable to the dummy for the start of ramadhan, but designated in an alternative way. rather than given the value 1 for all the months with the first day of ramadhan, it is valued 1 in the succeeding months if the first day of ramadhan took place within the final week. constructed using data collected from the ministry of religious affairs’ releases and media archives. dummy for the day of eid ul fitr (basic designation) binary variable given the value 1 for all the months with the day of eid ul fitr and zero otherwise. constructed using data collected from the ministry of religious affairs’ releases and media archives. dummy for the day of eid ul fitr (alternative designation) binary variable comparable to the dummy for the day of eid ul fitr, but designated in an alternative way. rather than given the value 1 for all the months with the day of eid ul fitr, it is valued 1 in the succeeding months if the day of eid ul fitr took place within the final week. constructed using data collected from the ministry of religious affairs’ releases and media archives. percent increase in minimum wage the percentages of the changes in the local minimum wage. calculated using data compiled from government decrees, particularly the decrees of governors on local minimum wage rates broad money (m2) supply the sum of currency outside banks, demand deposits other than those of the central government, and the time, savings, and foreign currency deposits of resident sectors other than the central government. taken from the central bank of indonesia’s website (bank indonesia 2015). idr per us$ exchange rate the monthly average exchange rate of indonesian rupiah to united states’ dollar. taken from the central bank of indonesia’s website (bank indonesia 2015). percent change in int’l oil price the percentages of the changes in international oil prices. calculated using the monthly averages of the europe brent spot prices (fob) data published by the united states’ energy information administration (eia 2015). percent change in int’l food price the percentages of the changes in international food prices. calculated using the monthly food price index data published by the food and agriculture organization (fao 2015). dummy for gasoline price increase (basic designation) binary variable given the value 1 for all the months with a gasoline price increase and 0 otherwise irrespective of when in the month the gasoline price increase took place. constructed using information compiled from various government and media archives. dummy for gasoline price increase (alternative designation) binary variable comparable to the dummy for gasoline price increase, but designated in an alternative way. rather than given the value 1 for all the months with a gasoline price increase, it is valued 1 in the succeeding months if the gasoline price increase took place within the final week. constructed using information compiled from various government and media archives. saleh, wardani, & ivantri ramadhan, eid ul fitr, and inflation: lesson from indonesian subnational data jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 146 monthly local inflation rates month-to-month percent change in the local consumer price index. taken from the statistics indonesia’s website of (bps 2015). dummy for gasoline price decrease (basic designation) binary variable given the value 1 for all the months with a gasoline price decrease and 0 otherwise irrespective of when in the month the gasoline price increase took place. constructed using information compiled from various government and media archives. dummy for gasoline price decrease (alternative designation) binary variable comparable to the dummy for gasoline price decrease, but designated in an alternative way. rather than given the value 1 for all the months with a gasoline price decrease, it is valued 1 in the succeeding months if the gasoline price increase took place within the final week. constructed using information compiled from various government and media archives. figure 1 f test or chow test the result of f test is accepted null hypothesis (p-value is 1.0000 > 0.05), in other word pls is more better than fe. f test that all u_i=0: f(58, 8986) = 0.34 prob > f = 1.0000 rho .00266317 (fraction of variance due to u_i) sigma_e 1.0812216 sigma_u .05587186 _cons .6009144 .1058965 5.67 0.000 .3933331 .8084957 gasopdn30 -.2244123 .0903506 -2.48 0.013 -.4015201 -.0473045 gasopup30 .3593344 .0489387 7.34 0.000 .2634034 .4552654 m2 2.18e-07 5.55e-08 3.94 0.000 1.10e-07 3.27e-07 pcminwage -.000178 .000714 -0.25 0.803 -.0015775 .0012216 exchangerate 7.54e-06 .0000111 0.68 0.499 -.0000143 .0000294 fpindex -.004863 .0008084 -6.02 0.000 -.0064476 -.0032783 oilprice .006131 .0011826 5.18 0.000 .0038128 .0084493 eidulfitr30 .5463502 .0409529 13.34 0.000 .4660731 .6266272 ramadan30 1.008421 .0418488 24.10 0.000 .9263878 1.090454 inflation coef. std. err. t p>|t| [95% conf. interval] corr(u_i, xb) = 0.0180 prob > f = 0.0000 f(9,8986) = 101.22 overall = 0.0930 max = 184 between = 0.4628 avg = 153.5 within = 0.0920 min = 88 r-sq: obs per group: group variable: dcode number of groups = 59 fixed-effects (within) regression number of obs = 9,054 saleh, wardani, & ivantri ramadhan, eid ul fitr, and inflation: lesson from indonesian subnational data jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 147 figure 2 hausman test the result of hausman test shows that p-value is 0.00 < 0.05 (ho = rejected) in other word fixed effect is appropriate than random effect. figure 3 lagrange test the result of f test is accepted null hypothesis (p-value is 1.0000 > 0.05), in other word pls is appropriate than re. figure 4 pesaran cd test the result of pesaran cd test is strongly rejects the null hypothesis of no cross-sectional dependence. prob>chi2 = 0.0000 = 90.92 chi2(8) = (b-b)'[(v_b-v_b)^(-1)](b-b) test: ho: difference in coefficients not systematic prob > chibar2 = 1.0000 chibar2(01) = 0.00 test: var(u) = 0 u 0 0 e 1.031821 1.015786 inflation 1.133461 1.064641 var sd = sqrt(var) estimated results: inflation[dcode,t] = xb + u[dcode] + e[dcode,t] breusch and pagan lagrangian multiplier test for random effects average absolute value of the off-diagonal elements = 0.577 pesaran's test of cross sectional independence = 271.863, pr = 0.0000 saleh, wardani, & ivantri ramadhan, eid ul fitr, and inflation: lesson from indonesian subnational data jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 148 table 5 the results with ramadhan and eid ul fitr dummies elaborated pcse variables (1) (2) (3) inflation inflation inflation dummy for before the month of ramadhan -0.365 (0.23) -0.401* (0.24) -0.477** (0.24) dummy for the beginning of ramadhan 0.708** (0.29) 0.705** (0.30) 0.789*** (0.30) dummy for the middle of ramadhan 0.339 (0.31) 0.371 (0.31) 0.368 (0.31) dummy for the end of ramadhan 0.731** (0.30) 0.738** (0.31) 0.721** (0.31) dummy for the eid ul fitr day -0.272 (0.29) -0.284 (0.29) -0.272 (0.29) dummy for middle eid ul fitr day 0.342 (0.24) 0.352 (0.24) 0.367 (0.24) percent increase in minimum wage -0.001 (0.00) -0.000 (0.00) broad money (m2) supply 0.000 (0.00) 0.000 (0.00) idr per us$ exchange rate 0.000 (0.00) 0.000 (0.00) percent change in int’l food price -0.006* (0.00) -0.005 (0.00) percent change in int’l oil price 0.008 (0.01) 0.007 (0.01) dummy for gasoline price increase 0.366* (0.21) dummy for gasoline price decrease -0.269 (0.41) observations 9,816 9,054 9,054 r-squared 0.114 0.125 0.132 number of dcode 66 59 59 standard errors in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 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(2016). modeling heterogeneous inflation expectations: empirical evidence from demographic data? economic modelling, 57, 153–163. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.04.017 https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.951 http://www.worldbank.org/id https://republika.co.id/berita/koran/opini-koran/16/06/20/o9264623-ekonomi-ramadhan-dan-lebaran https://republika.co.id/berita/koran/opini-koran/16/06/20/o9264623-ekonomi-ramadhan-dan-lebaran https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2013.04.001 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.04.017 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 21 nomor 1, april 2020 article type: research paper total financing of islamic rural banks and regional macroeconomic factors: a dynamic panel approach faaza fakhrunnas abstract: islamic rural bank is a special purpose of islamic banks, which finances small and medium enterprises (smes) in indonesia. this research aims to investigate a long-run relationship of the influence of regional inflation and economic growth on the total financing of islamic rural banks in indonesia. by adopting panel dynamics approach, this study utilized a biggest islamic rural bank in each indonesian province from 2013 to 2017 based on quarterly data, which consisted of 420 observation period. the result of this study exhibited that a longrun relationship existed among regional inflation and economic growth to the total financing of islamic rural banks. specifically, the long-run relationship also appeared in big size islamic rural banks, although it was not in small and medium size islamic rural banks. variance decompositions and impulse response factors analysis’ result explained that the majority of all regional macroeconomic variables contributed to the influence of total financing on the islamic rural bank. the directions of its influence were different from each sample group. according to the results, indonesian central bank must maintain inflation rate in the safety level for financial industry by following determined inflation target through appropriate monetary policies. this recommendation for the central bank is aimed to maintain and boost islamic rural banks’ financing that will give benefits for financial industry in indonesia. keywords: total financing, regional inflation, regional economic growth. jel classification: e00. e42, g00. introduction in terms of economic conditions, indonesia, as one of the most populous countries in the world, has an economic atmosphere mainly propped by small medium enterprises (smes). asia pacific foundation of canada (2018) in its report notes that smes in indonesia contribute about 60% of the total gross domestic product (gdp). however, one of the foremost problems of smes, including in indonesia, is access to capital (chiu, 2017). thus, the role of the islamic bank industry led by islamic rural banks is pivotal to serve smes’ needs as a capital provider, especially at the microfinancing level. as an intermediary institution for smes, the bank has a role in linking from a surplus unit to a deficit unit by utilizing several modes of contract. the financing activity is not only about the capital, but also fulfilling the requirement of islam to avoid riba as the value of the affiliation: department of economics, faculty business and economics, universitas islam indonesia. yogyakarta. indonesia. *correspondence: fakhrunnasfaaza@uii.ac.id this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.21.1.5028 citation: fakhrunnas, f. (2020). total financing of islamic rural banks and regional macroeconomic factors: a dynamic panel approach. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 21(1), 1-15. article history received: 12 january 2020 reviewed: 19 april 2020 revised: 20 april 2020 accepted: 21 april 2020 mailto:fakhrunnasfaaza@uii.ac.id http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/7993 https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp fakhrunnas total financing of islamic rural banks and regional macroeconomic factors: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 2 indonesian majority population who embrace islam as a belief (juwana, berlinti, & dewi, 2014). regarding the development of islamic banks in indonesia, the establishment of the bank was firstly driven by islamic society with forming islamic microfinance in 1990. sari, bahari, and hamat (2016) added that since the willingness of the islamic society in indonesia was supported by many islamic scholars who issued the fatwa of indonesian ulama council (majelis ulama indonesia) to prohibit usury (riba), the first islamic bank was finally established in 1992, named bank muamalat indonesia (bmi). for the current development, at the beginning of 2018, indonesian financial service authority stated that islamic banking industry consisted of 13 islamic commercial banks, 21 conventional banks having islamic business unit, and 167 islamic rural banks, with total asset more than idr 424 trillion, and it was equal to almost 6% of market share in the indonesian banking industry (ojk, 2018). according to the data issued by the indonesian financial service authority in 2018, islamic rural banks in indonesia provided several modes of financing, such as mudarabah, musharakah, murabahah, ijarah, istishna, salam, qard, and hybrid contract (ojk, 2018). the data is exhibited in figure 1. in which generally, all transactions in each contract had a positive trend. in addition, murabahah contract, as a cost-plus financing contract, remained dominant compared to others. the total financing from murabahah contract approximately reached idr 6 trillion in the year of 2017. this number contributed around 80% on average from 2013 to 2017. meanwhile, equity-based financing, proposed by mudharabah and musharakah, had less financing numbers as opposed to murabahah. the average number of equity-based financing each year was not more than idr 1 trillion. in another method of contract, the only a hybrid contract, which had more than 5% of total financing performed by islamic rural banks in indonesia, was equal to almost idr 500 billion on average for every year. figure 1 islamic rural bank financing in indonesia period 2013 to 2017 (in idr million) source: ojk (2018) idr 0 idr 1,000,000 idr 2,000,000 idr 3,000,000 idr 4,000,000 idr 5,000,000 idr 6,000,000 idr 7,000,000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 mudharabah musyarakah murabahah salam istishna ijarah qardh multijasa fakhrunnas total financing of islamic rural banks and regional macroeconomic factors: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 3 the evidence from the figure also portrays that the majority of financing activity conducted by indonesian islamic rural banking adopted debt-based financing, which has been similar to the conventional banks because it has been alleged to have a strong relationship to interest rate (chong & liu, 2009). furthermore, abedifar, molyneux, and tarazi (2013) stated that every method of financing would have unique exposure to macroeconomic risk, which would influence the islamic bank’s financial performance. the transmission of macroeconomic variables, such as inflation, economic growth, and its influence on the bank’s financing activity, can be seen in many research. benczúr, karagiannis, and kvedaras (2018) confirmed that economic growth influenced financing activity in the bank. economic growth is one of the signals to assess the economic conditions in certain regions. in a good economic growth, business activities tend to have a good response from society to have higher demands for goods and services. then, financing activity will support these business activities to keep growing. zarrouk, ben jedidia, and moualhi (2016) believed that an islamic bank would be affected by macroeconomic conditions in which the bank preferred to have good economic growth. the bank tends to have better performance, while economic conditions incline to rise. zarrouk et al. (2016) stressed that an islamic bank would engage in more financing activity during good economic circumstances. fakhrunnas, dari, and mifrahi (2018) also declared that the gross domestic product (gdp) affected banking performance in indonesia. however, there were differences in the result when the sample was differentiated between islamic banks and conventional banks. adopting fully modified ordinary least square (fmols) and dynamic ordinary least square (dols) model, the conventional bank has pro-cyclical response performance to gdp. on the other hand, the performance of islamic banks has not been influenced significantly by gdp. from this finding, it can be concluded that islamic bank had more resilience to gdp movement risk than its counterparty (fakhrunnas et al., 2018). another factor that affects the islamic bank’s financial performance is inflation (fakhrunnas & imron, 2019). inflation is considered as one of the key factors which can determine economic condition. imam and kpodar (2016) claim that inflation may lower economic growth because of its effect on increasing prices and decreasing society’s purchasing power. inflation had a direct effect on the bank’s financing in the financial market. this argument was conveyed by carlos, ferreira, and mendonça (2011), who found that the central bank might increase the interest rate to limit the money supply in the market due to an increase in inflation. however, inflation controlling, which may increase interest rate through central bank monetary policy, can become a burden on islamic banks while giving financing to deficit units. as a result, a rise in inflation will lessen islamic bank financing in the market. the reason for this occurrence is stated by chong and liu (2009) who believe that islamic bank still depends on the interest rate as a benchmark to determine the return. the use of interest rate as a benchmark is mainly adopted in debt-based contracts, such as murabahah. the unfavorable effect of inflation on the bank’s financing was also found by boyd and champ (2006). they added that inflation would negatively affect bank profitability in the condition that the bank had less awareness while the inflation started to move upward. different from other results, tan and floros (2012) uncovered that inflation had a fakhrunnas total financing of islamic rural banks and regional macroeconomic factors: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 4 significant relationship with the bank’s performance. the bank is considered to have a favorable adjustment to a change of interest rate during undesirable economic circumstances that create a faster increase in revenue than the cost spent by the bank. the same finding is also obtained by other studies, such as garcia-herrero, gavilá, and santabárbara (2009), and sufian (2009). in terms of the bank size, ibrahim, and rizvi (2017) claims that islam bank that has a big size is more stable compared to other sizes. this statement is supported by several reasons; such is the big bank has better risk management and a bigger economic scale, which can create more efficient and effective banking operations. the majority of the previous research about the bank’s financing determinants mainly utilized islamic commercial banks as the research object. the domination of islamic commercial banks as research objects might be caused by the availability of the data across countries. however, the use of islamic rural banks as an object study that serves the society at a microfinancing level is still rare when it is referred to as indexed international publication. the research object is believed to be essential to reveal its uniqueness as a sort of islamic banking operating at microfinance level. as a research contribution, this study aims to measure the indonesian islamic rural bank financing in a short and long-run analysis by engaging regional macroeconomic factors in each province as independent variables. specifically, this study tries to answer two main research questions; (1) what is the influence of a short and long-run economic growth and (2) what is the influence of short and long-run inflation. this paper consists of the introduction as the first section, and it is followed by the research method. in the third section, results and discussion will be explained while the fourth section shows the conclusion. research method the description of the variables used is shown in table 1. it consisted of ln_tp as a dependent variable that reflected total financing in islamic rural banks. reg and rinf were the independent variables, which would test their influence on the total financing of islamic rural banks. moreover, ln_size would be treated as a control variable in this research. by adopting purposive samples, this research only selected the biggest size of islamic rural banks that operated in each province, which had complete financial reports in the observation period. the biggest islamic rural bank in each province was believed to have an economic scale and efficiency to be measured its performance towards the influence of regional economic factors. based on data selection, this study obtained 21 islamic rural banks in 21 provinces, which resulted in 420 banks in the observation period. all the data were in a balanced panel form, where it was started from 2013 to 2017 in the quarterly period. then, it was retrieved from the indonesian financial service authority and indonesian statistic bureau. fakhrunnas total financing of islamic rural banks and regional macroeconomic factors: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 5 table 1 descriptive information of variables used variable notation description data source total financing ln_tp log total financing of islamic rural bank indonesian financial service authority regional economic growth reg regional economic growth in each province in percentage indonesian statistic bureau regional inflation rinf regional economic growth in each province in percentage indonesian statistic bureau bank size ln_size log islamic rural bank’s total asset indonesian financial service authority model specification in this paper, panel data was adopted. it means that cross-section and time-series data were pooled to measure the influence of regional macroeconomic factors, in which the proxies were regional inflation and regional economic growth on the total financing of islamic rural banks. from that objective, the equation is as follow; 𝐿𝑜𝑔𝑇𝐹 = 𝑓(𝑅𝐼𝑁𝐹, 𝑅𝐸𝐺, 𝐿𝑁_𝑆𝐼𝑍𝐸) from the above equation, the empirical model form can be elaborated, as below, 𝐿𝑁_𝑇𝑃𝑖𝑡 = 𝛽0 + 𝛽1𝑅𝐼𝑁𝐹𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽2𝑅𝐸𝐺𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽3𝐿𝑁_𝑆𝐼𝑍𝐸𝑖𝑡 + 𝜀𝑖𝑡 β0 expresses the constant term of the equation, in which β1 to β3 are estimated parameters in the model. in addition, i describes cross-section data, reflecting the biggest islamic rural bank in each province level, t explains about time-series data, and εit appoints an error term in this model. estimation procedure panel dynamics were applied to analyze the relationship among variables in this research. to perform panel dynamics, cointegration among variables should be attained, which was firstly checked by unit-roots tests. pedroni (2000) argues that panel dynamics provide an option for the researchers to pool the long-run information inside the panel data, and it allows long dynamic and fixed effect exists in the estimation model. panel dynamics also give a chance to the researcher to have extensive data (perron, 1991). moreover, pedroni (2000, 2004) states that cross-section data are permitted for a presence that reflects interdependence with a different individual effect. there were several stages to conduct panel dynamics, which would be explained in the next discussion. panel cointegration test to perform the panel cointegration test, the unit-roots test should be conducted previously. the unit-roots test would measure the stationarity of the data, whether it fakhrunnas total financing of islamic rural banks and regional macroeconomic factors: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 6 stood at the level of the first difference and second difference. some mathematical measurements can be adopted to conduct unit-root tests, such as im, pesaran, and shin w-stat (ips), adf-fisher, and pp-fisher, in which the null hypothesis of the test is nonstationary for all unit-roots test (zulkhibri, naiya, & ghazal, 2015). when the test results show the stationarity data in the first difference, then the cointegration panel can be applied to assess the long-term effect of the future relationship among observed variables. levin, lin, and chu (2002) suggest the model of panel unit-roots estimate long-run relationship, as follows: 𝑦𝑖𝑡 = 𝜌𝑖 𝑦𝑖,𝑡−1 + 𝑧′𝑖𝑡𝛾 + 𝜇𝑖𝑡 where 𝑧𝑖𝑡is defined as deterministic variables, 𝜇𝑖𝑡 is as iid (0, σ 2), and 𝜌𝑖 = 𝜌. the statistic test is exactly at t-statistic on 𝜌 in which it is explained as below; 𝑡𝜌 = (−1)𝑏 ± √𝑏2 − 4𝑎𝑐 2𝑎 the general formula for pedroni tests is as follow; panel rho-statistic: 𝑍𝜌 = (∑ ∑ �̂�11𝑖 −2 𝑇 𝑡=1 𝑁 i=1 �̂�𝑖𝑡−1 2 ) −1 ∑ ∑ �̂�11𝑖(�̂�𝑖𝑡−1∆�̂�𝑖𝑡−𝜆𝑖) 𝑇 𝑡=1 𝑁 i=1 panel pp-statistic: 𝑍𝑃𝑃 = (�̂� 2 ∑ ∑ �̂�11𝑖 −2 𝑇 𝑡=1 𝑁 i=1 �̂�𝑖𝑡−1 2 ) −1/2 ∑ ∑ �̂�11𝑖(�̂�𝑖𝑡−1∆�̂�𝑖𝑡−𝜆𝑖) 𝑇 𝑡=1 𝑁 i=1 panel adf-statistic: 𝑍𝑡 = (�̂� ∗2 ∑ ∑ �̂�11𝑖 −2 𝑇 𝑡=1 𝑁 i=1 �̂�𝑖𝑡−1 ∗2 ) −1/2 ∑ ∑ �̂�11𝑖(�̂�𝑖𝑡−1 ∗ ∆�̂�𝑖𝑡 ∗ ) 𝑇 𝑡=1 𝑁 i=1 group rho-statistic: �̂�𝜌 = ∑ (∑ �̂�𝑖𝑡−1 2 𝑇 𝑡=1 ) −1𝑁 𝑖=1 ∑(�̂�𝑖𝑡−1∆�̂�𝑖𝑡 − �̂�𝑖 ) 𝑇 i=1 fakhrunnas total financing of islamic rural banks and regional macroeconomic factors: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 7 group pp-statistic: �̂�𝑡 = ∑ (�̂� 2 ∑ �̂�𝑖𝑡−1 2 𝑇 𝑡=1 ) −1/2𝑁 𝑖=1 ∑(�̂�𝑖𝑡−1∆�̂�𝑖𝑡 − �̂�𝑖) 𝑇 i=1 group adf-statistic: �̂�𝑃𝑃 = ∑ (∑ �̂�𝑖 −2�̂�𝑖𝑡−1 ∗2 𝑇 𝑡=1 ) −1/2𝑁 𝑖=1 ∑(�̂�𝑖𝑡−1 ∗ ∆�̂�𝑖𝑡 ∗ ) 𝑇 i=1 variance decompositions and impulse response factors the use of variance decompositions (vds) and impulse response factors (irfs) aimed to measure the multivariate causalities among variables. moreover, it can capture the sample more in the observation period in terms of relative strength and its causality (rosylin & bahlous, 2013). vds would portray the causality relationship among the observed variables. vds also provided a variety of changes in terms of the value of a variable over the observed period. in addition, to estimate ifrs, panel var analysis should be conducted to understand the long-term effect of the determinants of islamic banks’ financing. pesaran and shin (1999) believed that ifrs would assess the time profile of the effect shock from the determined point of time to the future value of the observed variable in a dynamic system. not only giving the future prediction, but ifrs would also provide future direction of the observed variable. result and discussion unit roots and panel cointegration result the unit-roots test was used to check the stationary of the variables. this test would assess whether the variables were stationary at a level or at 1st difference as a requirement to apply further tests (pedroni, 2004). table 2 describes the unit-roots test for islamic rural banks in the observed period. from the table, it can be seen that only rinf had stationarity at the level by adopting an individual intercept. however, the results were different when individual intercept and trend were applied to measure stationarity. rinf, reg, and ln_size had stationarity at the level, but not for ln_tp. besides, both applying individual intercept only and individual intercept and trend were stationary at the 1st level. this result is the same as the perspective of im pesaran shin, augmenteddickey fuller (adf), and philip perron (pp). from the result mentioned above, all samples in this research were stationary at the 1st level, and it fulfilled the requirement to conduct a cointegration test that measured the long-run relationship among the variables. in the cointegration test, several approaches were carried out. within the dimension approach, panel v-statistic, panel rho-statistic, panel pp-statistic, and panel adf-statistic were applied. in addition, between dimensions, group rho-statistic, group pp-statistic, and group adf-statistic were utilized to assess the research model. as suggested by rosylin fakhrunnas total financing of islamic rural banks and regional macroeconomic factors: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 8 and bahlous (2013); and fakhrunnas et al. (2018), the result of the cointegration test can be seen from the majority result of all approaches. at least forth out of seven tests were significant at level 1%, 5%, and 10%. table 3. exhibits the result of the panel cointegration test, which portrayed the different results among observed samples that were differentiated based on the islamic rural bank’s size. from all samples, islamic rural bank financing (ln_tp) had a long-run relationship toward the endogenous variables, such as regional inflation and economic growth. this finding is supported by (farhan, sattar, chaudhry, and khalil, 2012), which stated that economic growth would impact the bank’s performance. furthermore, garcia-herrero et al., (2009); and sufian (2009) also mentioned that inflation would affect the bank’s performance. a long-run relationship among the variables also indicated that the bank should be aware of the movement of regional economic growth and regional inflation at the province level because it had a long-run effect on the total financing in islamic rural banks. when the sample was separated based on the size of the islamic rural bank, the result of the cointegration test was different. from the small size islamic rural bank, the cointegration did not exist since only panel adf-stat and group adf-stat were significant in the 10% and 5% level, respectively. the finding implies that there was no long-run relationship of small size islamic rural bank’s financing to regional inflation and economic growth. the reason might be caused by the small size of islamic rural bank, which did not have a large-scale financing activity, did not influence the regional inflation, and economic growth in the long-term period. this finding is also different from ibrahim and rizvi (2017), who stated that a small size islamic bank was riskier than the big size one. the finding of small size islamic rural banks is almost the same as the medium size of islamic rural banks. only panel pp-stat, group pp-stat, and group adf-stat that had a significant result in the 1%-10% level of significance. from an inward-looking islamic rural bank, both sizes of the bank might also be resilient to regional inflation and economic growth because there was no long-run relationship toward observed variables in this research (fakhrunnas et al., 2018). for the big-sized islamic rural bank, the result was different from other sizes, which exhibited long-run relationships among total financing, regional inflation, and economic growth appear. the finding explained that there was an influence of regional inflation and economic growth on the total financing of the bank. it is supported by boyd and champ (2006), tan and floros (2012), and farhan et al. (2012), who also concluded that the bank performance would be affected by macroeconomic variables, such as inflation and economic growth. the high exposure to the external factors does not mean that islamic rural bank is weak to manage the risk. the advantage of having a big size of islamic rural bank is to possess a wide economic scale compared to other islamic rural bank’s sizes. the big size bank internally tends to have good risk management, and it creates stability in the banking operation (ibrahim & rizvi, 2017). fakhrunnas total financing of islamic rural banks and regional macroeconomic factors: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 9 table 2 panel unit root tests of islamic rural bank in indonesia period 2013q1-2017q4 notes: the optimal lag length is based on schwarz information criteria, which are automatically selected. the null hypothesis for all tests is non-stationary in which ***, ** and* denote as significant at 1% level, significant at 5% level and significant at 10% level table 3 panel cointegration tests of islamic rural bank in indonesia period 2013q1-2017q4 cointegration test all sample small size medium size big size within dimension panel v-stat -0.858 0.265 -0.238 2.030** panel rho-stat -0.503 0.863 0.841 -0.501 panel pp-stat -2.571*** -0.253 -1.543* -4.354*** panel adf-stat -3.036*** -1.522* -1.213 -4.675*** between dimension group rho-stat 1.74 1.818 2.296 0.830 group pp-stat -2.748*** -0.045 -3.241*** -6.519*** group adf-stat -4.422*** -2.280** -1.801** -5.865*** notes: the symbol of ***, ** and* denotes as significant at 1% level, significant at 5% level and significant at 10% level variable individual intercept individual intercept and trend at level first difference at level first difference ips adf pp ips adf pp ips adf pp ips adf pp ln_tp 0.495 40.20 64.12 -8.847*** 157.5*** 483.6*** 0.807 32.72 40.58 -8.368*** 142.6*** 212.0*** rinf -4.616*** 91.38*** 143.7*** -12.35*** 217.6*** 1480*** -3.466*** 83.62*** 141.2*** -9.465*** 160.7*** 376.9*** reg -1.191 49.09 96.04 -11.91*** 208.7*** 941.6*** -3.498*** 74.99*** 114.4*** -8.764*** 148.9*** 356.1*** ln_size 1.610 35.36 38.09 -11.51*** 203.9*** 710.7*** -2.416*** 73.87*** 60.32*** -9.642*** 165.0*** 267.9*** fakhrunnas total financing of islamic rural banks and regional macroeconomic factors: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 10 variance decompositions result table 4 variance decompositions result period variance decomposition of ln_tp (all sample) variance decomposition of ln_tp (small size bank) variance decomposition of ln_tp (medium size bank) variance decomposition of ln_tp (big size bank) s.e. ln_tp rinf reg ln_size s.e. ln_tp rinf reg ln_size s.e. ln_tp rinf reg ln_size s.e. ln_tp rinf reg ln_size 2013q1 0.11 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.21 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 100 0 0 0 0.06 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2013q2 0.17 97.16 0.00 0.30 2.54 0.31 98.59 0.13 0.57 0.71 0.11 98.524 0.04 0.81 0.62 0.10 92.11 0.17 0.02 7.70 2013q3 0.21 93.01 0.09 0.20 6.70 0.38 93.72 0.29 0.52 5.47 0.14 97.522 0.16 0.66 1.66 0.13 87.03 0.37 0.12 12.48 2013q4 0.25 87.91 0.24 0.17 11.68 0.42 89.31 0.62 0.43 9.65 0.17 96.542 0.11 1.05 2.30 0.16 87.99 0.60 0.20 11.21 2014q1 0.27 82.37 0.37 0.26 16.99 0.46 85.35 1.00 0.37 13.28 0.19 95.168 0.08 1.82 2.93 0.19 88.24 0.69 0.21 10.86 2014q2 0.30 76.85 0.47 0.43 22.26 0.49 81.99 1.58 0.33 16.10 0.22 93.53 0.07 2.71 3.69 0.21 87.46 0.87 0.22 11.46 2014q3 0.32 71.58 0.51 0.66 27.25 0.51 79.14 2.20 0.30 18.36 0.24 91.69 0.08 3.79 4.43 0.23 87.31 1.02 0.22 11.44 2014q4 0.34 66.70 0.51 0.93 31.86 0.53 76.61 2.79 0.28 20.31 0.26 89.713 0.11 5.01 5.16 0.25 87.40 1.14 0.23 11.23 2015q1 0.36 62.26 0.48 1.22 36.03 0.55 74.38 3.41 0.27 21.94 0.27 87.629 0.16 6.33 5.88 0.26 87.26 1.22 0.23 11.29 2015q2 0.38 58.27 0.44 1.52 39.77 0.57 72.40 4.01 0.26 23.33 0.29 85.496 0.23 7.69 6.59 0.28 87.14 1.29 0.23 11.34 2015q3 0.40 54.69 0.41 1.81 43.09 0.58 70.62 4.56 0.26 24.56 0.3 83.356 0.30 9.08 7.27 0.29 87.14 1.33 0.23 11.29 2015q4 0.42 51.49 0.37 2.10 46.04 0.59 69.00 5.09 0.26 25.65 0.32 81.235 0.38 10.46 7.92 0.31 87.12 1.35 0.24 11.29 2016q1 0.43 48.62 0.35 2.38 48.65 0.61 67.53 5.59 0.25 26.62 0.33 79.161 0.47 11.83 8.53 0.32 87.08 1.37 0.24 11.32 2016q2 0.45 46.06 0.33 2.64 50.97 0.62 66.19 6.05 0.25 27.51 0.35 77.149 0.57 13.17 9.12 0.33 87.06 1.38 0.24 11.32 2016q3 0.47 43.76 0.33 2.89 53.03 0.63 64.95 6.48 0.25 28.32 0.36 75.211 0.66 14.46 9.67 0.35 87.05 1.39 0.24 11.32 2016q4 0.48 41.69 0.33 3.12 54.86 0.65 63.81 6.88 0.25 29.06 0.37 73.356 0.76 15.71 10.18 0.36 87.03 1.40 0.24 11.33 2017q1 0.50 39.82 0.34 3.35 56.49 0.66 62.75 7.25 0.25 29.75 0.39 71.588 0.85 16.90 10.67 0.37 87.02 1.40 0.24 11.34 2017q2 0.51 38.13 0.36 3.55 57.96 0.67 61.77 7.59 0.25 30.39 0.4 69.907 0.94 18.03 11.12 0.38 87.01 1.41 0.24 11.34 2017q3 0.53 36.59 0.38 3.74 59.28 0.68 60.85 7.92 0.25 30.98 0.41 68.315 1.03 19.11 11.55 0.39 86.99 1.42 0.25 11.34 2017q4 0.54 35.20 0.41 3.92 60.46 0.70 60.00 8.22 0.25 31.53 0.43 66.809 1.12 20.13 11.94 0.40 86.98 1.43 0.25 11.34 fakhrunnas total financing of islamic rural banks and regional macroeconomic factors: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 11 rosylin and bahlous (2013) explained that vds would portray the influence of the independent variables on the dependent variable. table 4. shows the vds test result, which was divided by the characteristic of the sample according to the islamic rural bank’s size. in all samples, it can be seen that regional inflation affected 0.51% in the period of 2014q4 as the maximum point, even though after that period, it tended to decrease until the end of the observation period. on the other hand, regional economic growth was consistent to increase and had the maximum influence on islamic rural bank’s financing at 3.92%. the islamic rural bank’s size affected 60.46% of the bank’s financing in 2017q4. for the small size islamic rural bank, the influence of regional inflation on islamic rural bank financing was consistent to increase time by time. the maximum influence was in 2017q4 that affected by 8.22% on the bank’s financing. however, the result was different from regional economic growth, in which the influence had a downward trend, which had the highest point in 2012q2, amounting to 0.57%, and it reached the lowest influence in 2017q4, which was 0.25%. this finding implies that in the small size islamic rural bank, regional inflation in the short run had a greater influence than regional economic growth. moreover, the direction of the influence contradicted each sample group mentioned above. for the medium size islamic rural bank, the influence of regional inflation had an upward trend, which had a peak point at 1.12%, which reflected that the effect of regional inflation on total financing of islamic rural banks was at that percentage. the same trend was also possessed by regional economic growth, which had the optimum influence on islamic rural bank’s total financing at 20.13%. the influence of size to islamic rural bank’s total financing was lower than the small size islamic rural bank, which was 11.94% and 31.53%, respectively. besides, the big size islamic rural bank in the short run had the same trend as medium size islamic rural bank. however, there was a difference in terms of the number. in the regional inflation variable, the minimum to maximum influence on total financing of islamic rural banks was from 0.17% to 1.43%. furthermore, regional economic growth only had a small influence on the total financing of islamic rural banks, which was from 0.02% to 0.25%. according to the result discussed previously, in the short run, the influence of independent variables on the dependent variable varied. it connotes that every islamic rural bank, which was grouped based on size, had a specific result in each group. impulse response factors impulse response factors (irfs) were employed to understand each direction of the independent variable to the dependent variable in each group of the sample. pesaran and shin (1999) stated that irfs would give information about the direction of one variable to other variables in each step of the observation period. the period used in ifrs was 20 observation period, which started from the 1st quarter of 2013 to the 4th quarter of 2017 with applying non-factorized one s.d irfs. from all samples, regional inflation tended to have an upward movement to influence the total financing of islamic rural banks. in the beginning, the movement of regional inflation toward total financing almost increased in the 2nd quarter of 2013, and it dropped in the 3rd quarter of 2017, then it increased consistently, and it tended to be stable in the 1st quarter of 2016. in addition, regional economic growth tended to have fluctuated direction in terms of the influence on total fakhrunnas total financing of islamic rural banks and regional macroeconomic factors: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 12 financing of islamic rural banks. starting to rise in the 1st quarter of 2013, the regional economic growth had a negative direction and was below the horizontal zero lines during the observation period. on the other hand, the size of islamic rural banks has increased dramatically since around the 2nd period of observation, which was in the 2nd quarter of 2013. then, the direct effect of financing tended to be stable. figure 2 impulse response factor for all sample, small, medium and big size bank for the small size islamic rural bank, regional inflation had a positive upward trend toward total financing. the trend consistently increased until the 1st quarter of 2015, and it moved steadily until the end of the period. that condition was different from regional economic growth, which had a dynamic movement along the observation period. increasing sharply in the beginning, the influence of regional inflation on the total financing of islamic rural banks dropped below the zero lines until the 3rd quarter of 2013. after that date, the influence rose under zero line and inclined stagnant since the 1st quarter of 2014 to the end of the observation period. regarding medium size islamic rural banks, the variable of regional inflation overall had a negative trend toward total financing of islamic rural banks during the observation period, even though in the 2nd quarter of 2013, it had an upward trend until the 3rd quarter of 2013, then it fell in the next period. in addition, regional economic growth regularly increased until the 4th quarter of 2017. dissimilar to regional economic growth, size had a rise in a direction until the 4th quarter of 2013, and it plunged until the end of the period. lastly, big size islamic rural banks had a different direction from other samples’ groups toward total financing. regional inflation showed an upward movement toward total financing; however, it fell from 4th quarter 2013 until the end of the observation period below the zero lines. from the perspective of regional economic growth to total financing of islamic rural banks, downward movement occurred until the 2nd quarter 2013; after that, it increased until around the 4th quarter of 2013. next, the direction fluctuated -.1 .0 .1 .2 .3 .4 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 response of rinf to nonfactorized one s.d. ln_tp innovation -.12 -.08 -.04 .00 .04 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 response of reg to nonfactorized one s.d. ln_tp innovation .000 .004 .008 .012 .016 .020 .024 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 response of ln_size to nonfactorized one s.d. ln_tp innovation .0 .1 .2 .3 .4 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 response of rinf to nonfactorized one s.d. ln_tp innovation -.02 -.01 .00 .01 .02 .03 .04 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 response of reg to nonfactorized one s.d. ln_tp innovation .00 .01 .02 .03 .04 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 response of ln_size to nonfactorized one s.d. ln_tp innovation -.08 -.06 -.04 -.02 .00 .02 .04 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 response of rinf to nonfactorized one s.d. ln_tp innovation .0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 response of reg to nonfactorized one s.d. ln_tp innovation .00 .01 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 response of ln_size to nonfactorized one s.d. ln_tp innovation -.20 -.15 -.10 -.05 .00 .05 .10 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 response of rinf to nonfactorized one s.d. ln_tp innovation -.20 -.15 -.10 -.05 .00 .05 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 response of reg to nonfactorized one s.d. ln_tp innovation .00 .01 .02 .03 .04 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 response of ln_size to nonfactorized one s.d. ln_tp innovation fakhrunnas total financing of islamic rural banks and regional macroeconomic factors: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 13 around zero horizontal lines until the end of the observation period. in terms of size effect on the total financing of islamic rural banks, a dynamic movement also occurred in the relationship between variables. starting to increase sharply from the beginning until around 4th quarter 2013, the movement after that decreased, and then a dynamic movement appeared after that period, which was a specific time, the influence of size on the total financing increased or decreased consecutively. conclusion total financing of islamic rural banks, regional inflation, and regional economic growth had a long-run integration. this finding exhibits that independent variables in this research would determine the long-run effect on the total financing of islamic rural banks in indonesia. specifically, the influence should be taken as a concern for big sized islamic rural banks even though they tended to have better risk management than other sizes of islamic rural banks. in the short-run analysis, by adopting variance decompositions, all regional macroeconomics variables influenced less than 10% on the total financing of islamic rural banks throughout the observation period except regional economic growth for medium size islamic rural banks, which reached 20.3% at the end of the observation period. in addition, the direction of all regional macroeconomic variables varied for each sample group in the short run. it can be interpreted that the regional macroeconomics variable effect on total financing might depend on the economic situation and islamic rural bank’s financial soundness. according to the result, islamic rural banks in indonesia should be aware of the regional macroeconomic variables. it may be essential to maintain the stability of islamic rural bank financing. moreover, as an authority, the central bank is also recommended to maintain the inflation rate at the safety level for the financial industry by following the determined inflation target through appropriate monetary policy. this recommendation for the central bank is aimed to maintain and boost islamic rural bank’s financing that will benefit the financial industry in indonesia. to extend the findings for future research, this paper recommends examining the cut off level of macroeconomic 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(2015). structural change and economic growth in selected emerging economics. international journal of development issues, 14(2), 98–116. https://doi.org/10.1108/mbe-09-2016-0047 https://doi.org/10.1108/jiabr-07-2012-0044 https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijfbr.20160205.13 https://doi.org/10.1080/10599230903340205 https://doi.org/10.1108/01443581211274610 https://doi.org/10.1108/imefm-12-2014-0120 https://doi.org/10.1108/mbe-09-2016-0047 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 21 nomor 1, april 2020 article type: research paper capital inflows and industrial performance in nigeria: including the excluded ibrahim ayoade adekunle*1, ayomide olayinka ogunade1, toluwani grace kalejaiye2, and adewale musliudeen balogun1 abstract: africa's most populous black nations remain underdeveloped, mainly due to shambolic industrial sector performance. the rising problems of insecurity, corrupt practices, and consumerism structure have made gains from capital inflows minimal. little empirical credence has been leaned to the capital inflowindustrial output growth relationship in nigeria. this anomaly has resulted in short-sighted policy formulation and attendant consequences. this paper examined international capital flows and industrial performance in nigeria. the paper employed the two-step engle and granger estimation procedure and the granger causality to estimates parameters of the indices of industrial output growth and capital inflows to nigeria. findings revealed that labour participation, gross fixed capital formation, foreign direct investment (fdi), and portfolio investment had a significant positive relationship with industrial performance in nigeria. findings also revealed unidirectional causality from labour participation, gross fixed capital formation, foreign direct investment (fdi) and portfolio investment to industrial performance in nigeria. based on the findings, the nigerian government should create an enabling environment to attract more capital inflow that could augment domestic resources with the sole aim of growing the industrial sector. keywords: capital inflow; industrial performance; error correction model (ecm); granger causality. jel classification: c22, f21, p47. introduction african leaders and their development partners around the world are continuously engaged in ensuring poverty is sabotaged in and around the continent. several measures of poverty eradication have been adopted with minimal impact (carter & may 1999). with the africa 2063 agenda in focus, industrial growth and development remain the most pervasive option for africa to gain momentum for structural transformation. theoretical and empirical findings (see aryeetey & moyo, 2012; bräutigam & xiaoyang, 2011; morris & fessehaie, 2014; okereke coke, geebreyesus, ginbo, wakeford, & mulugetta, 2019; taylor, 2016 for some examples) leaned credence to the revolutionary industrial growth in african economies and confirm that more strategic industries will not only help african countries to amass affluence but also help solve the age-old problems of redundancy that have redefined their teeming populations. industrial growth offers viable paths for skill and technology advancement affiliation: 1olabisi onabanjo university. ago iwoye, ogun state, nigeria. 2tai solarin university of education. ijebu-ode, ogun state, nigeria. *correspondence: adekunle_ia@yahoo.com this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.21.1.5030 citation: adekunle, i. a., ogunade, a. o., kalejaiye, t. g., & balogun, a. m. (2020). capital inflows and industrial performance in nigeria: including the excluded. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 21(1), 37-52. article history received: 12 december 2019 reviewed: 31 december 2019 19 april 2020 revised: 6 february 2020 22 april 2020 accepted: 22 april 2020 mailto:adekunle_ia@yahoo.com http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/7718 https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp adekunle, ogunade, kalejaiye, & balogun capital inflows and industrial performance in nigeria: including the excluded jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 38 (aryeetey & moyo, 2012), wealth creation (morris & fessehaie, 2014), youth engagement (okereke et al., 2019), economic divergence (oyelaran-oyeyinka, 2014) and many more. thus, it is adjudged to be the most relevant for many african countries, particularly nigeria (world bank, 2014). the ability of a well-equipped industrial sector to absorb unskilled and semi-skilled workforce is second to no other sector in an economy (daveri & tabellini, 2000). industrialised africa will be famous not for the commodities-based economic approach but rather because of its potentials for higher value-addition and its ability to protects the economy from the shocks in global commodity markets (morris & fessehaie, 2014). african countries, such as ethiopia, kenya, nigeria, and south africa, have begun to intensify efforts to leverage their comparative advantages through specific industrial development programmes to break the established global manufacturing value chains in many commodities, such as textiles, metal processing, leather, agro-processing primary (world bank, 2013). even the industrialised nations (the g7-canada, germany, france, italy, japan, uk, and the us) operating service-based economies are recently looking for an inventive approach to re-shore their manufacturing (a core of industrialisation) to seizure deteriorating growth and employment prospects that are in the time past absent (mahipal & prasad, 2004). in clear terms, the importance of industrial output growth can never be overstated, not least when it comes to the context of development in nigeria. with so much attention going into industrial output growth these days, the questions are many and unanswered. how relevant is capital inflows to nigeria as a determinant of industrial output growth objectives? what is the nature and volume of capital inflow? how much of it goes to the industrial sector? moreover, how well do they predict variations in industrial output growth in nigeria? these are quite essential questions seeing how the industrial sector has always been a significant contributor to growth outcomes. with increasingly more countries allowing for cross-border capital mobility, the impact of capital inflows on industrial output has become a matter of considerable policy relevance. theoretically, capital inflows can increase access to finance of industries and, thereby, promote industrial investment growth, expenditure smoothing, and international risk sharing that boost investors’ confidence. knowing how capital flows induce changes in industrial output growth in nigeria to remain grossly understudied in the extant literature of public finance. apparently, no country-specific study has examined capital flows for industrial output growth in nigeria. given the growing sophistication of capital flow to nigeria because of rising problems of insecurity and terrorism, weak institutional frameworks, arbitrage motives of hedging, exchange rate fluctuations, more recent research has focused on identifying types of capital flow that enhance economic growth. little attention has been paid to the role of capital flow-industrial output growth relationship in nigeria. another essential issue that has generated debate is the role of capital inflow to jumpstart the growth of the industrial sector. a growing list of studies found a positive relationship between financial openness, capital mobility, and economic growth (see de gregorio & guidotti, 1995; levine, 1997; rajan & zingales, 1998, for example). however, gourinchas and jeanne (2006) found that welfare gains accruing to the industrial sector when finances are sourced across borders to augment domestic savings are negligible relative to the welfare gain of take-off when industrial growth in domestic sponsored. the adekunle, ogunade, kalejaiye, & balogun capital inflows and industrial performance in nigeria: including the excluded jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 39 arguments are hinged on the fact that capital inflow to african countries are motivated by the act of capitalism from the sending countries (arguments are advanced for inflows from europe and north america). a capitalist-motivated capital flow leaves damaging effects on recipient countries in the event of withdrawal of capital, leading to capital flight (efobi & asongu, 2016). thus, it leaves an enormous investment gap that creates further economic problems. however, non-capitalist motivated capital flows are growth and development inclined and thus sustainable (arguments are advanced for inflows from china and other asian countries). since the onset of the evaluation of gains from capital flows, the structural relationship with industrial development remains dimly discerned in nigeria, mainly as it concerns the primary effect of these capital flows for structural transformation, which largely hinge on the shift from agrarian to an industrialised economy. it is not even entirely clear how capital flow predicts variations in the industrial sector of nigeria. a growing list of studies (see akinlo, 2004; buera & shin, 2017; osinubi & amaghionyeodiwe, 2010) has focused on the capital flow-economic growth nexus neglecting the underlying structural dynamics of capital flow as a predictor of industrial output growth in nigeria. the industrial development pattern of developing countries has remained sticky even when additional foreign investment from abroad is injected (markusen, 1996). despite the conventional relationship between foreign direct investment flows and growth outcomes moving symmetrically, no evidence providing additional financing over domestic savings ultimately leads to industrialisation (brandl & traxler, 2010). it is clear that the inflow of funds spur industrial growth but remains unclear is the magnitude of change in industrial output as a result of the rate of change in capital inflow. prasad, rajan, and subramanian (2007), in contrast to standard theoretical economic growth models, argued that developing countries with low-level industrialisation that have relied more on foreign finance had not grown faster in the long run. similarly, aizenman, pinto, and radziwill (2007) argued that the economic growth of developing and emerging markets was relatively self-financed when comparing the value of domestic capital against the foreign inflow of funds. this study attempts to lean empirical credence to the capital inflow-industrial output growth relationship in nigeria to inform policy direction and research. we adopt a country-specific analytical approach to examine the predictive capacity of capital inflow for industrial output growth in nigeria. we quantify the relationship in their evolution over time by rolling the regressions forward over 31 years. finally, we evaluate the impact of critical variables focusing on nigeria, which is an economy representative of the african periphery. we conducted the granger causality test to evaluate the direction of causality between the variables of interest. we justified that our model does not violate any of the assumptions of the classical linear regression model by conducting the various post estimation procedure that confirms the reliability of estimates emanating from this study. the novelty of the research is in two folds: this study leads the debate on the capital inflows-industrial output growth in nigeria with the aim of coming up with findings that can redefine policy and research on the subject matter. this study analyses a new perspective by disaggregating capital inflows to study which of the capital inflows channels has the most domineering influence on industrial sector performance in nigeria. adekunle, ogunade, kalejaiye, & balogun capital inflows and industrial performance in nigeria: including the excluded jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 40 by intuition, policy formulation can be tailored towards encouraging such channel of capital inflow well above other channels for industrial sector growth and subsequently development. the subsequent sections are the literature review, the methodology used, then the empirical results and their corresponding interpretations and discussion while the last part gives the conclusion and policy recommendations. capital inflow and industrial output growth have been discussed along various dimensions and geographical landscapes. oseni, adekunle, and alabi (2019) found volatility in the exchange rate to predict significant variations in industrial output growth in nigeria. in related findings, jongbo (2014) advanced arguments for the fluctuating exchange rate as a predictor of industrial sector performance. the author relied on the ordinary least square and found that the real exchange rate significantly induced variations in industrial sector performance in nigeria. with the attendant heterogeneous influence of exchange rate fluctuations, which could appreciate or depreciate, industrial sector performance bows to pressures of exchange rate fluctuations. furthermore, adeniyi, oyinlola, and omisakin (2011) established a linear and positive influence of the exchange rate on the industrial sector in nigeria. in other findings, okafor, adegbite, and abiola (2018) found the exchange rate and inflation shock to hurt the growth of the industrial sector in nigeria. it was evident from the review of literature that the contemporaneous influence that capital inflows play in the industrial sector development of nigeria remains grossly understudied. in other country studies that are not entirely on the exact structural relationship between capital inflow and industrial performance in nigeria, ojedide (2005) studied capital flows volatility and macroeconomic performance in nigeria and found that capital flows are a function of the initial stage of the developing country. consequent to the above, we tested the hypothesis that capital inflows would propel the growth in the industrial sector of nigeria, assuming initial conditions were met. in a trivariate country analysis, herzer (2006) relied on the bivariate vector autoregressive (var) estimation procedure to study the fdi-growth causal relationship in nigeria, srilanka, tunisia, and egypt. findings revealed that fdi catalysed the productivity of the manufacturing sector, which in turn speeded up the growth rate of the gross domestic product of the countries. using the two-step engle and granger estimation procedure, steve, samuel, and bodiseowei (2013) found domestic debt to influence foreign aid positively while debt inversely predicted economic growth. in their analysis of capital outsourcing and growth of the manufacturing sector, ugwu, asogwa, and ugwuanyi (2017) found fdi to predict variations in economic growth significantly. in other climes and across borders, mensah, awunyo-vitor, and asare-menako (2013) argued that volatility in exchange rate determined ghana’s manufacturing sector employment growth. based on the empirical credence, we opine that the devaluation of the ghanian cedis relative to the u.s. dollars could be responsible for the inefficient industrial sector in ghana. nonetheless, uneca (2009) found that religious tension, productive and non-productive risks, percentage of oil in total exports, current market size, the volume of fdi inflow, pervasive corruption, saving ration, nominal credit to the private sector were critical determinants of fdi inflows in africa. ojo and alege (2010) adekunle, ogunade, kalejaiye, & balogun capital inflows and industrial performance in nigeria: including the excluded jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 41 corroborated the findings of uneca in their empirical analysis of the impact of global financial crisis and policy implications on the sudden rise in fdi inflows in twenty-seven (27) economies in sub saharan africa. the authors found that output growth co-moved with the inflows of fdi in africa. in other related studies, chakarabarti (2001) found that market factors were the principal determinant of fdi inflows to africa. besides, fdi inflows were sensitive to real exchange rate movements in sub-saharan africa (ogun, egwaikkhide & ogunleye, 2012). we conclude that little has been done on the empirical validation of capital inflowindustrial output growth relationship in nigeria. evidence on the industrial sector performance in nigeria has been studied against the volatility or fluctuations in the exchange rate. how remittances inflows, foreign direct investment, portfolio investment, and official development assistance in the form of aid predicts variation in nigeria industrial development remains dimly discerned. the intricacies of such omission in the literature of industrial sector development in nigeria underpin this study. consequent on the above, we tested the hypothesis that: h0: capital inflow has no significant relationship with industrial output growth in nigeria h1: capital inflow has a significant relationship with industrial output growth in nigeria research method in accounting for industrial performance as induced by capital inflow in nigeria, the study followed the dual gap theory. developing countries like nigeria rely on the inflow of funds to augments the savings-investment gap. the equilibrating condition of the dual-gap model occurs at: 𝑆𝑡 = 𝐼𝑡 (1) with st representing the national savings level and it is the predominant investment level. nigeria has been predominantly characterized by the low level of domestic savings amidst lofty investment objectives so that we obtained the savings investment-gap, which created a vacuum for external capital inflow to augment domestic savings to meet the lofty investment objectives. the functional relationship of such relationship is expressed as: 𝑆𝑡 + 𝐶𝐴𝑃𝐹𝐿𝑂𝑊𝑡 = 𝐼𝑡 (2) unvaryingly, we re-evaluated our capital stock function to include all forms of capital inflows: 𝐾𝑡 = 𝑆𝑡 + 𝐶𝐴𝑃𝐹𝐿𝑂𝑊𝑡 + (1 − 𝛿)𝐾𝑡−1 = 𝐼𝑡 (3) adekunle, ogunade, kalejaiye, & balogun capital inflows and industrial performance in nigeria: including the excluded jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 42 where kt defines the capital stock parameter, st is the national savings level, 𝐶𝐴𝑃𝐹𝐿𝑂𝑊𝑡 is the capital inflow options to the country, δ measures depreciation of capital, and it is the predominant investment level. we proceed to estimate the industrial performance model in a cobb-douglas production function. 𝑌𝑡 = 𝐴𝐿𝑡 1−∝𝐾𝑡 ∝ (4) yt represents the output growth of the industry; lt measures output per unit of effective labour; kt represents output per unit of effective capital, and 𝐶𝐴𝑃𝐹𝐿𝑂𝑊𝑡 is the capital inflows to the country. the capital inflow-industrial output growth induced model is expressed as: 𝐼𝑁𝐷𝑂𝑈𝑇𝑡 = 𝐴 + ∑ 𝛾𝑛 𝐴𝐿𝑡 𝑛=1 𝑖 + ∑ 𝜋𝑛 𝐾𝑡 𝑛=1 𝑖 + ∑ 𝜔𝑛 𝐶𝐴𝑃𝐹𝐿𝑂𝑊𝑡 𝑛=1 𝑖 + 𝜇𝑡 (5) where 𝛾, 𝜋, and 𝜔, are the elasticities of human capital (l), physical capital (k), and capital flows, respectively. 𝐼𝑁𝐷𝑂𝑈𝑇𝑡 is industrial output growth in nigeria, 𝐴 is the efficiency of the productive economy, 𝐴𝐿 is labour force or the working population, 𝑘𝑡 is domestic capital stock, 𝐶𝐴𝑃𝐹𝐿𝑂𝑊𝑡 is a capital inflow to nigeria, and t is the time series characteristics of the data set (1987-2017). given the purpose of this study which is to examine the effect of capital flow on industrial output growth, we took the semi-logarithms and time derivatives of equation (5) to generate the following dynamic function: 𝑙𝑛𝐼𝑁𝐷𝑂𝑈𝑇𝑡 = 𝐴 + ∑ 𝛾𝑛 𝐴𝐿𝑡 𝑛=1 𝑖 + ∑ 𝜋𝑛 𝑙𝑛𝐾𝑡 𝑛=1 𝑖 + ∑ 𝜔𝑛 𝑙𝑛𝐶𝐴𝑃𝐹𝐿𝑂𝑊𝑡 𝑛=1 𝑖 + 𝜇𝑡 (6) explicitly, the explanatory model intended to capture the dynamics of industrial output growth was expressed in equation (7) 𝑙𝑛𝐼𝑁𝐷𝑂𝑈𝑇𝑡 = 𝐴 + ∑ 𝛾𝑛 𝐴𝐿𝑡 𝑛=1 𝑖 + ∑ 𝜋𝑛 𝑙𝑛𝐾𝑡 𝑛=1 𝑖 + ∑ 𝜔𝑛 𝑙𝑛𝐹𝐷𝐼𝑡 𝑛=1 𝑖 + ∑ ∅𝑛 𝑙𝑛𝑅𝐸𝑀𝑡 𝑛=1 𝑖 + ∑ ∞𝑛 𝑙𝑛𝑂𝐷𝐴𝑡 𝑛=1 𝑖 + ∑ 𝜕𝑛 𝑙𝑛𝑃𝑂𝑅𝑇𝐼𝑁𝑉 𝑡 𝑛=1 𝑖 + 𝜇𝑡 (7) where 𝛾, 𝜋, 𝜔, ∅, ∞, and 𝜕, are the elasticities of human capital (l), physical capital (k), fdi, remittances, official development assistance, portfolio investment, respectively. 𝐼𝑁𝐷𝑂𝑈𝑇𝑡 is industrial output growth in nigeria, 𝐴 is the efficiency of the productive economy, 𝐴𝐿 is labour force or the working population, 𝑘𝑡 is domestic capital stock, 𝐹𝐷𝐼 is the foreign direct investment to nigeria, 𝑅𝐸𝑀 is remittances inflow to nigeria, 𝑂𝐷𝐴 is official development assistance to nigeria, 𝑃𝑂𝑅𝑇𝐼𝑁𝑉 is portfolio investment to nigeria, t defines the time parameter of the model. our study used annual time series data for indices of capital flows and industrial output growth from 1987 through 2017. the choice of nigeria was guided by the desire to explain the structural transformation of the nigerian industrial sector with the attendant consequences of capital inflows. this study was also guided by the availability of reliable data on aggregates of capital inflows and associative consequences. capital inflows were measured employing foreign direct investment, official development assistance, portfolio investment, and remittances as used in the work of edwards (1990); calvo (1998); reisen adekunle, ogunade, kalejaiye, & balogun capital inflows and industrial performance in nigeria: including the excluded jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 43 table 1 variable description abbreviation variable measured as source 𝑰𝑵𝑫𝑶𝑼𝑻𝒕 industrial output growth in nigeria industry value added world development indicator (wdi), 2017 𝑨𝑳𝒊𝒕 labour labour participation rate world development indicator (wdi), 2017 𝑲𝒊𝒕 capital stock gross fixed capital formation world development indicator (wdi), 2017 𝑭𝑫𝑰 foreign direct investment net foreign direct investment inflows world development indicator (wdi), 2017 𝑹𝑬𝑴 remittance remittances inflows world development indicator (wdi), 2017 𝑶𝑫𝑨 official development assistance official development assistance to developing nations world development indicator (wdi), 2017 𝑷𝑶𝑹𝑻𝑰𝑵𝑽 portfolio investment portfolio investment world development indicator (wdi), 2017 source: authors, 2020 and soto (2001); schneider (2003); de vita and kyaw (2008); opperman and adjasi (2017). however, industrial output growth was measured utilizing industry value added as in bandyopadhyay, sandler, and younas (2014); bezić, galović, and mišević (2016); filer and stanišić (2016); galović, bezić, and mišević (2018). we relied on data from the world bank database (world bank, 2017). the variables used in this study are described in table 1. we presented the pre-estimation analysis from the descriptive statistics and the unit root test. the descriptive analysis confirmed the normality condition of the data sets. the unit root establishes the order of integration of the variables and subsequently informs the estimation strategy to be adopted. we proceed to estimate the cointegration test to confirm the existence of long-run covariance among the variables (johansen & juselius, 1990; pesaran & shin, 2012; wang & wu, 2012). the trace statistics and maximum eigenvalue can be estimated from the eigenvalues of the coefficient matrix. we proceed to estimate the two-step engle and granger estimation procedure to adjust long runconvergence behaviour to suit gradual short-run equilibrium (engle & granger, 2015). also, we estimated the granger causality test to determine the lag-order in the causation model (eichler, 2007). result and discussion the descriptive statistics of the data provided vital information about the sample series, such as the mean, median, minimum and maximum values, and the distribution of the sample measured by the skewness, kurtosis, and jaque-bera statistics. the summary statistics result in table 2 reveals a high tendency for normal distribution (mean and median values lie within the maximum and minimum values). we found positively skewed series and platykurtic distributions with flat tail relative to the normal distribution (values less than three (3)). we discovered the series to be normally adekunle, ogunade, kalejaiye, & balogun capital inflows and industrial performance in nigeria: including the excluded jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 44 table 2 descriptive statistics descriptive statistics 𝑰𝑵𝑫𝑶𝑼𝑻𝒕 𝑳𝒕 𝑲𝒕 𝑭𝑫𝑰𝒕 𝑹𝑬𝑴𝒕 𝑶𝑫𝑨𝒕 𝑷𝑶𝑹𝑻𝑰𝑵𝑽 𝒕 mean 7.5001 3.3613 2.6501 4.7086 3.3613 2.6502 4.7086 median 7.4401 3.0121 2.9101 3.9492 3.0121 2.9101 3.9492 maximum 9.1101 8.8325 3.9901 5.4258 4.8326 3.5421 5.4258 minimum 5.2301 0.6426 1.6209 2.2513 1.6426 1.6439 2.2232 std. dev. 2.0001 2.2081 8.3209 3.5653 2.2081 2.4303 1.3368 skewness 1.3093 1.8801 1.5863 1.9769 1.8801 2.5863 2.9769 kurtosis 1.6697 2.9775 2.1772 1.0603 2.9772 2.1707 2.2357 jargue-bera 2.3312 2.4533 2.2349 4.1402 3.4221 2.2342 1.1046 probability 0.3016 0.5562 0.2305 0.1183 0.4302 0.3271 0.5126 observation 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 source: authors, 2020 distributed consequent upon probability values that were non-significant at a 5% level of significance. unit root test table 3 unit root test: augmented dickey-fuller test (adf) variables level t-stat critical value @ 5% first difference t-stat critical value @ 5% order of integration 𝑰𝑵𝑫𝑶𝑼𝑻𝒕 -0.5773 -3.3737 -4.3332 -1.4334 i (1) 𝑨𝑳𝒊𝒕 -1.3323 -2.4333 -3.4331 -2.5888 i (1) 𝑲𝒊𝒕 0.7447 -1.5531 -3.2332 -1.6632 i (1) 𝑭𝑫𝑰 3.5523 -1.8203 -4.6682 -3.5626 i (1) 𝑹𝑬𝑴 -2.3682 -5.5236 -3.6362 -1.3322 i (1) 𝑶𝑫𝑨 1.1221 1.0032 -2.3222 -1.3222 i (1) 𝑷𝑶𝑹𝑻𝑰𝑵𝑽 -1.3772` -2.9511 -2.6631 -1.57231 i (1) source: authors, 2020 note: the summary statistics were computed before taking the natural logs we found the first differenced stationarity order across all series in the data set. we proceed to estimate the two-step engle and granger error correction estimation procedure to gradually adjust from the long run converging characteristics of the variables to the short-run equilibrating position. the error correction model thwarts long-run convergence in the parameterisation of the variables for short-run gradual equilibrium (engle & granger, 2015). the error correction model to be estimated is specified as: 𝑙𝑛𝐼𝑁𝐷𝑂𝑈𝑇𝑡 = 𝐴 + ∑ 𝛾𝑛𝐴𝐿𝑡 𝑛=1 𝑖 + ∑ 𝜋𝑛𝑙𝑛𝐾𝑡 𝑛=1 𝑖 + ∑ 𝜔𝑛𝑙𝑛𝐹𝐷𝐼𝑡 𝑛=1 𝑖 + ∑ ∅𝑛𝑙𝑛𝑅𝐸𝑀𝑡 𝑛=1 𝑖 + ∑ ∞𝑛𝑙𝑛𝑂𝐷𝐴𝑡 𝑛=1 𝑖 + ∑ 𝜕𝑛𝑙𝑛𝑃𝑂𝑅𝑇𝐼𝑁𝑉 𝑡 𝑛=1 𝑖 + ℵ𝐸𝐶𝑀(−1) + 𝜇𝑡 all other variables remained as earlier defined except 𝐸𝐶𝑀(−1) which is the error correction component of the model that gradually adjust frontal long-run convergence to short-run equilibrating conditions, and ℵ is the coefficient of the error correction component that gives the speed of adjustment back to short term equilibrium. adekunle, ogunade, kalejaiye, & balogun capital inflows and industrial performance in nigeria: including the excluded jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 45 optimal lag length selection table 4 optimal lag length selection lag length aic 0 4.7838 1 2.5622* source: authors, 2020 notes * indicates lag order selected by the criterion error correction modelling procedure is sensitive to lag length because of the time-varying parameters of the model adjustment. we relied on the akaike information criteria to choose the optimal lag length for our industrial performance model. the information criteria with the lowest statistics in the corresponding lag-order selection give the optimal. lag length one (1) is optimal based on the result presented in table 4. we proceed to established cointegrating level and short-run elasticities. cointegration test we drew inferences at 5% in the tace and maximum eigen values statistics. table 5 result of johansen co-integration test based on trace statistic and max eigenvalue trace statistic max. eigen value no. of ce(s) eigenvalue trace statistic 0,05 critical value prob. maxeigen value critical value prob. none * 0.74 138.42 95.75 0.00* 44.52 40.10 0.01* at most 1 * 0.69 93.91 69.82 0.00* 38.61 33.88 0.01* at most 2* 0.53 55.29 47.86 0.01* 25.50 27.58 0.04* at most 3* 0.42 29.80 29.80 0.05* 18.17 21.13 0.03* at most 4 0.21 11.63 15.50 0.18 7.86 14.26 0.03* source: authors, 2020 notes: trace test indicates 4 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 5% level; max-eigenvalue test indicates 5 cointegration at the 5% level; * rejection of the hypothesis at the 5% level; **mackinnon-haug-michelis (1999) p-values we confirmed the existence of a long-run relationship since we rejected the null of no cointegration. we proceed to estimate the two-step engle and granger estimation procedure. table 6 presents the result of the two-step engle and granger error correction procedure. the estimated coefficient of the error correction vector was 0.4591, implying that the error correction term gradually adjusted back to the short-run equilibrating position at the rate of 56.72 per cent. the coefficient of the error correction term was appropriately signed and significant at 1% level of significance. adekunle, ogunade, kalejaiye, & balogun capital inflows and industrial performance in nigeria: including the excluded jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 46 table 6 two-step engle and granger error correction result dep.var.: 𝑰𝑵𝑫𝑶𝑼𝑻𝒕 variable coefficient t-statistic prob. a 0.1440 2.7373 0.0001** 𝑨𝑳𝒊𝒕 0.1193 2.6363 0.0234* 𝑲𝒊𝒕 0.8734 2.8562 0.0421* 𝑭𝑫𝑰 0.5662 3.6372 0.0432* 𝑹𝑬𝑴 0.1916 2.7237 0.1255 𝑶𝑫𝑨 -0.4591 -1.0983 0.3014 𝑷𝑶𝑹𝑻𝑰𝑵𝑽 0.6895 2.7281 0.0167* 𝑬𝑪𝑴(−𝟏) -0.5672 -2.9273 0.0014* r-squared 0.7162 adjusted r2 0.5129 f-statistic 45.2321 prob(f-statistic) 0.0000** durbin-watson stat 2.0544 source: authors, 2020 **(1%) *(5%) indicates significance levels the coefficient of error correction implies that about 57% of the previous year's disequilibrium in the economy’s industrial sector was revolved around its short run equilibrating position. short-run estimates revealed that all the explanatory variables except official development assistance and portfolio investment induced a linear and positive relationship with industrial output growth in nigeria. explicitly, a percentage increase in the labour participation rate will result in an 11.93 per cent increase in industrial output in nigeria. daveri and tabellini (2000) found similar results for several industrialised economies. nevertheless, a percentage increase in capital formation will result in an 87.34 per cent increase in industrial output in nigeria. this finding aligns with the work of oded (2011) and oketch (2006). furthermore, a percentage increase in foreign direct investment will result in a 56.62 per cent increase in industrial output in nigeria, as also revealed by onanuga, odusanaya, and adekunle (2020). finally, a percentage increase in portfolio investment will result in a 68.95 per cent increase in industrial output in nigeria, which also corroborating the findings of onanuga, odusanaya, and adekunle (2020). however, remittances and official development assistance were found not to statistically determine industrial output growth in nigeria at any level of significance. it implies that they did not predict variations in industrial output growth in nigeria. the value of the adjusted r2 of 0.5129 indicates that explanatory variables of the model explained 51.29% of variations in industrial output growth in nigeria, while the remaining 48.71% were captured outside the model. the durbin watson value of 2.0544 implies that the model was free from problems of serial correlation because it fell within the acceptance range of 1.5 to 2.5. the f-statistics of 45.2321 was statistically significant at the 1 per cent level, indicating that the explanatory variables were jointly significant, suggesting that the model exhibited the desired goodness of fit. adekunle, ogunade, kalejaiye, & balogun capital inflows and industrial performance in nigeria: including the excluded jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 47 granger causality test in gauging the causation lag order of the capital inflow-industrial output relationship, we regressed the dependent variable “ 𝐼𝑁𝐷𝑂𝑈𝑇𝑡 ” on its own one period lag and the oneperiod lag of the regressors. we tested the null hypothesis of joint zero coefficients in the lagged regressors. by inference, failure to reject the null is equivalent to failure to reject the hypothesis that one-period lag of the regressors does not granger cause industrial output in nigeria. we expressed the causality model as: 𝐼𝑁𝐷𝑂𝑈𝑇𝑡 =∝𝑜 + ∑ 𝛽𝑗𝐴𝐿𝑡−𝑗 𝑝2 𝑗=1 + ∑ 𝛽𝑘 𝑙𝑛𝐾𝑡−𝑘 𝑝3 𝑘=1 + ∑ 𝛽𝑙 𝐹𝐷𝐼𝑡−𝑣 𝑝4 𝑣=1 + ∑ 𝛽𝑚 𝑅𝐸𝑀𝑡−𝑚 𝑝5 𝑚=1 + ∑ 𝛽𝑤 𝑂𝐷𝐴𝑡−𝑤 𝑝5 𝑤=1 + ∑ 𝛽𝑧𝑃𝑂𝑅𝑇𝐼𝑁𝑉 𝑡−𝑧 𝑝5 𝑧=1 + 𝜇𝑡 (8) to test the non-granger causality from 𝐴𝐿𝑡 , 𝐾𝑡 , 𝐹𝐷𝐼𝑡 , 𝑅𝐸𝑀𝑡 , 𝑂𝐷𝐴𝑡 and 𝑃𝑂𝑅𝑇𝐼𝑁𝑉𝑡 to 𝐼𝑁𝐷𝑂𝑈𝑇𝑡 , we tested the nullity of all coefficients, 𝛽𝑗, 𝛽𝑘,𝛽𝑣 , 𝛽𝑚 , 𝛽𝑤 and 𝛽𝑧 the pairwise granger causality test results are given in table 7. table 7 granger causality result null hypothesis: x does not granger cause y f-statistics probability 𝑰𝑵𝑫𝑶𝑼𝑻𝒕 → 𝑨𝑳𝒕 1.6343 0.7723 𝑨𝑳𝒕 → 𝑰𝑵𝑫𝑶𝑼𝑻𝒕 0.5432 0.0043** 𝑰𝑵𝑫𝑶𝑼𝑻𝒕 → 𝑲𝒕 2.5362 0.4170 𝑲𝒕 → 𝑰𝑵𝑫𝑶𝑼𝑻𝒕 0.4378 0.0052** 𝑰𝑵𝑫𝑶𝑼𝑻𝒕 → 𝑭𝑫𝑰𝒕 1.4526 0.1238 𝑭𝑫𝑰𝒕 → 𝑰𝑵𝑫𝑶𝑼𝑻𝒕 4.5623 0.0004** 𝑰𝑵𝑫𝑶𝑼𝑻𝒕 → 𝑹𝑬𝑴𝒕 0.6272 0.6621 𝑹𝑬𝑴𝒕 → 𝑰𝑵𝑫𝑶𝑼𝑻𝒕 1.3838 0.7372 𝑰𝑵𝑫𝑶𝑼𝑻𝒕 → 𝑶𝑫𝑨𝒕 2.9213 0.5366 𝑶𝑫𝑨𝒕 → 𝑰𝑵𝑫𝑶𝑼𝑻𝒕 2.6782 0.3521 𝑰𝑵𝑫𝑶𝑼𝑻𝒕 → 𝑷𝑶𝑹𝑻𝑰𝑵𝑽𝒕 0.6342 0.9882 𝑷𝑶𝑹𝑻𝑰𝑵𝑽𝒕 → 𝑰𝑵𝑫𝑶𝑼𝑻𝒕 2.8821 0.0234* source: authors, 2020 **(1%) *(5%) indicates significance levels the result in table 7 indicates that there is unidirectional causality from labour participation, gross fixed capital formation (a measure of capital), fdi, and portfolio investment to industrial output growth in nigeria. hence, labour participation, gross fixed capital formation, fdi, and portfolio investment granger caused industrial output growth in nigeria. the findings of this study agree with the findings of singh (2012). table 8 serial correlation test breusch-godfrey serial correlation lm test: f-statistic 0.5262 prob. f (7,24) 0.2312 obs*r-squared 2.6263 prob. chi-square (7) 0.4552 source: authors, 2020 adekunle, ogunade, kalejaiye, & balogun capital inflows and industrial performance in nigeria: including the excluded jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 48 given the probability value of 45.52 per cent, we failed to reject the null hypothesis and concluded that our short-run model was free from problems of serial correlation. table 9 heteroscedasticity test result breusch-pagan-godfrey heteroscedasticity test: f-statistic 0.565126 prob. f (7,24) 0.5357 obs*r-squared 10.75370 prob. chi-square (7) 0.9273 source: authors, 2020 given the probability value of 92.73 per cent, we failed to reject the null hypothesis and concluded that our short-run model was free from problems of heteroskedasticity. -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 cusum 5% significance figure 1 cusum stability test source: authors, 2020 the above figure shows that the cusum line is within the critical bounds of 5 per cent level of significance, which indicates that the model had structural stability. conclusion despite the significance of capital outsourcing as an alternative source of investment financing, the empirical connections between capital inflows and industrial output growth in nigeria remain grossly understudied. previous studies on the industrial development discourse in nigeria have focused on the influence of exchange rate volatility or fluctuations in the industrial sector development literature in nigeria. little was done to establish the contemporaneous influence of the various source of capital inflow on industrial sector growth. which of these channels of capital inflows is more pervasive and efficient? it is an important research question for policy information research redefinition in nigeria. this study relied on aggregate indices of capital inflows (remittances inflows, official development assistance (oda), fdi inflows, and portfolio investment) and industrial sector development from 1987 through 2017 to lean empirical credence to the adekunle, ogunade, kalejaiye, & balogun capital inflows and industrial performance in nigeria: including the excluded jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 49 relationship. we found that an increased labour participation rate was essential for the increase in industrial output in nigeria, just as daveri and tabellini (2000) have stressed in their findings. domestic and international capital inflow jointly aided narrowing a wide investment gap in nigeria, which is in consonance with oded (2011); oketch (2006) and onanuga, odusanaya, and adekunle (2020). however, remittances and official development were anathemas to industrial output growth in nigeria, mainly owing to the unproductive role remittances play in the african space. remittances are mainly used for consumption, which in pure form does not generate a return in itself. development assistance is usually mismanaged owing mainly to the political motives that are associated. labour participation, gross fixed capital formation, fdi, and portfolio investment granger caused industrial output growth in nigeria, thus, corroborating the findings of singh (2012). this study’s novelty is two-fold. firstly, it leads to the debate on capital inflows and industrial sector development in nigeria. secondly, this study relied on the two-step engle and granger estimation procedure 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(2014). nigeria economic report. world bank. retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1007/bf02315996 world development indicators (2010). retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1596/978-08213-8232-5 https://doi.org/10.1080/03056244.2015.1084911 https://doi.org/10.7176/jesd/10-3-02 https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867x1201200312 https://doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9616-2 https://doi.org/10.1007/bf02315996 https://doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-8232-5 https://doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-8232-5 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 21 nomor 1, april 2020 article type: research paper the effect of fiscal policy and foreign direct investment on regional economy in indonesia agus tri basuki*1, yunastiti purwaningsih2, albertus maqnus soesilo2 and mulyanto2 abstract: the purpose of this study was to analyze the influence of the poor population, government spending and foreign investment on regional economic growth in 20 provinces and divided into 2 regions, then compare the effectiveness of fiscal policies in the 2 regions. the paper utilizes the fixed‐ effects and random‐effects techniques to estimate the panel regressions. the results showed that the right fiscal policy could increase economic growth in both the western and eastern regions of indonesia. for the western region, revenue sharing is less effective than the eastern region in increasing economic growth, but conversely government spending on education, health and marine in the western region is more effective than the eastern region in increasing economic growth. keywords: economic growth; panel data regression; fiscal policy; fiscal capacity. jel classification: b22; e62; f63. introduction economic development, according to todaro (2000) it is defined as "the activities carried out by the state to develop economic activities to satisfy people's living standards." economic development creates imbalances in some countries and does not solve fundamental development problems. it is evident in terms of level and quality of life among some disadvantaged and vulnerable people. therefore, economic development can increase the ability of people to meet their needs, increase selfesteem as human beings, and uphold the human rights of society. moreover, according to boediono (1992), "economic growth is a process of increasing output per capita in the long run." thus, the percentage increase in output increase must be higher than the percentage increase in population, and there will be a long-term increase in economic growth. the development process is not only determined by economic aspects but also is defined by other aspects, such as the economic policy of a region. concerning the regional economy, it is defined as an increase in all the added value that happens, which is an increase in the overall revenue of the community that happens in the region (tarigan, 2005). regional affiliation: 1 ph.d. student on economics and business faculty universitas sebelas maret surakarta. indonesia. universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta. yogyakarta, indonesia. 2 universitas sebelas maret. surakarta, indonesia *correspondence: agustribasuki@yahoo.com this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.21.1.5031 citation: basuki, a. t., purwaningsih, y., soesilo, a. m., & mulyanto. (2020). the effect of fiscal policy and foreign direct investment on regional economy in indonesia. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 21(1), 53-68. article history received: 25 november 2019 reviewed: 31 march 2020 14 april 2020 revised: 3 april 2020 14 april 2020 accepted: 19 april 2020 mailto:agustribasuki@yahoo.com http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/7570 http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp basuki, purwaningsih, soesilo, & mulyanto the effect of fiscal policy and foreign direct investment … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 54 income is a response to the factors of production in accordance with the prosperity of the region. the factor affecting economic growth is that reducing the population of the poor will increase economic growth. the study of škare and družeta (2016) concludes that it is crucial for policymakers to ensure institutional pre-conditions and incorporate progrowth and pro-poor policies that will enable the poor to participate in opportunities and contribute to future growth. this paper represents a simple contribution to the analysis of the interdependence of poverty and economic growth and can serve as a basis for future research. whereas nindi and odhiambo (2015) concluded that the results of the study indicated that economic growth did not cause poverty reduction in swaziland, either in the short or long term. instead, the study found a causal relationship from poverty reduction with economic growth in the short term. poverty makes the poor do not have access to resources and opportunities to invest so that it will slow down per capita economic growth (todaro, 2000). research on the relationship of the poor to economic growth has been carried out by islam, ghani, and abidin (2017), škare and družeta (2016), nindi and odhiambo (2015), sinnathurai (2013) and afzal, malik, begum, sarwar, and fatima (2012). islam et al. (2017) research concluded that the number of poor people had a positive relationship with economic growth, meaning that if the number of poor people increased, it would result in increased economic growth. skare and družeta (2016) research revealed that poverty growth did not reduce the level of economic development inequality. research by nindi and odhiambo (2015), sinnathurai (2013) and afzal, m. et al. (2012) uncovered that the number of poor people had an inverse relationship with economic growth, meaning that if the number of poor people increased, it resulted in a decrease in economic growth. another factor affecting economic growth is that general allocation funds also contribute to economic growth. general allocation funds are funds that must be allocated by the central government to every province/district/city in indonesia each year as development funds. it is a component of expenditure in the state budget and is a budget component in the budget used for development funds and should not be prioritized for routine transportation and only for development. however, the results of the study by purbadharmaja, ananda, and santoso (2019) concluded that fiscal decentralization did not always lead to better budget management. the success of fiscal decentralization can be found in the quality of local budgets and the quality of budget management. the allocation of local budgets to improve public services and develop infrastructure will increase regional economic capacity. enhancing the capacity of regional economies encourages community welfare. research on the relationship between the general allocation fund (dau) on economic growth was done by ahmad (2011). the results of the study inferred that the general allocation fund had a positive relationship with economic growth. research conducted by astria (2014) in south sumatra showed the results that the general allocation fund had a negative influence on economic growth. furthermore, muti'ah's research (2017) basuki, purwaningsih, soesilo, & mulyanto the effect of fiscal policy and foreign direct investment … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 55 found that that the balanced fund in the form of a general allocation fund had no impact on economic growth. then, another factor that can affect economic growth is fiscal policy. the fiscal policies carried out by the regional government are the regional budget and expenditure. the regional revenue and expenditure budget are prepared according to administrative needs and the ability of regional income. fiscal policy can be used as a driver of economic activity and economic improvement (udoh, 2011). in addition to fiscal policy, the investment can also be relied on to foster development strategies that are strengthened with the national economy. the economic development effort in each region has the main objective to increase the numbers and types of employment opportunities for local communities. in an effort to achieve these goals, local governments and communities must jointly take regional development assistance. the participation of local governments and communities using these resources has begun to inventory the potential of existing resources to support and develop the regional economy. chaudhry, mehmood, and mehmood (2013); abala (2014) support investment as one of the drivers of economic growth needed by traditional neoclassical opinions in economic development. according to this analysis, foreign investment is something that can save existing savings. based on figure 1, the average economic growth in 2008 to 2017 was 7.94%, with the highest economic growth achieved by central sulawesi and the lowest achieved by nangro aceh darussalam. meanwhile, the average growth in the western indonesia region (sumatra, java, and kalimantan) was 5.63%, and the average growth in the eastern indonesia region (sulawesi, nusa tenggara, maluku, and papua) was 8.54%. figure 1 average economic growth in 2008-2017 in various provinces in indonesia source: indonesian bureau of statistics basuki, purwaningsih, soesilo, & mulyanto the effect of fiscal policy and foreign direct investment … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 56 figure 1 indicates that there was an imbalance in regional development in several provinces in indonesia. one of the causes of inequality is that the allocation of funds can come from the government or the private sector. in the autonomous government system, more government funds will be allocated to the regions so that development disparities between regions will tend to be lower. private investment is more determined by market forces, where the location advantage that is owned by an area is a force that has many roles in attracting private investment. the location advantage is determined by transportation cost, both raw materials and results to be paid by employers, differences in labor costs, market concentration, level of business competition, and land rent. therefore, the investment will tend to be more in developed provinces compared to underdeveloped regions. these factors encourage to examine the influence of the poor, the allocation of development funds, government spending, and foreign investment in driving economic growth, as well as to investigate the role of fiscal policy in each region. government expenditures used to influence the economic course of a region (infrastructure of education, health, transportation, and others) will result in increased economic activity and encourage economic growth (todaro, 2000). research on the effect of government spending on economic growth was conducted by hussain, khan, and rafiq (2017), udoh (2011), oni, aninkan, and akinsanya (2014), and surjaningsih, utari, and trisnanto (2012). the results of research by hussain et al. (2017), udoh (2011), and oni et al. (2014) concluded that government spending had a positive influence on economic growth. research from surjaningsih et al. (2012) uncovered that in the long run, government spending had no effect on economic growth. meanwhile bathla (2017) has conducted a study on the relationship between government spending on agriculture with economic growth. this research analyzed the relationship between public investment in agriculture and irrigation and agricultural growth in the indian context. this analysis revealed that the formation of low and inadequate public capital during the nineties had an impact on farmers' investment and jeopardized technological change and agricultural growth. the major push in resource allocation for agriculture and irrigation from the early 2000s was an essential policy initiative. significant increases in spending on irrigation systems in less developed countries have helped curb productivity growth and stimulate private investment. however, capital intensity in agriculture did not increase significantly, which could partly explain the slow growth rate in many countries. the data showed that there were large variations between countries in public expenditure, implying that developed countries tended to spend more on agriculture compared to countries that depended on less developed agriculture. thus, the empirical analysis indicated a significant impact on agricultural income. furthermore, this study aims to analyze regional independence and the effectiveness of regional fiscal policy in driving economic growth in western and eastern indonesia. through the application of fixed and random effects techniques in modeling the relationship between regional economic growth and the role of regional budgets and balancing funds, it is expected that regional economic performance can be measured and become a consideration of regional officials to take an important role in optimizing the use of local budgets. basuki, purwaningsih, soesilo, & mulyanto the effect of fiscal policy and foreign direct investment … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 57 research method the panel regression model in this study is as follows: grdp = β0 + β1poit + β2dait + β3eduit + β4heait + β5agriit + β6mait + β7fdiit + e (1) the grdp symbol is gross regional domestic income, β is constant, β (1,2 ... 7) is the regression coefficient of each independent variable, po is the number of poor populations, da is the general allocation fund, edu is the budget for education, hea is the budget for health, agric is a budget for agriculture, ma is a budget for fisheries and marine affairs, and fdi is foreign direct investment. e is error term, t is time from 2008 until 2018, and i is the province. the sample of provinces involved was 20 provinces out of 34 provinces in indonesia, while 14 provinces were incomplete data in the ministry of finance of the republic of indonesia. the data used in this study were sourced from the central bureau of statistics of the republic of indonesia and the ministry of finance of the republic of indonesia from 2008 to 2017. from equation 1, the elasticity number can be found from the value of β (equation 2). this β value is obtained by logging (gujarati, 2003: 168) of all variables except the variable whose value is percent or fraction. loggrdp = β0 + β1logpoit + β2logdait + β3logeduit + β4logheait + β5logagriit + β6logmait + β7logfdiit + e (2) in the regression model estimation method using panel data, the analysis could be done through three approaches, including common effect model, fixed effect model, and random effect model. after the equation was formed, the best model of the common effect model, fixed effect model, and random effect model was selected by employing the chow test, hausman test, and lm test. after the best model was chosen, then the classical assumption test was carried out. in the case of a classic assumption test, it is sufficient to utilize the heteroscedastic test and the multicollinearity test (gujarati, 2003). the stages of panel data analysis can be seen in figure 2. the initial stages consisted of regression using the common effect, fixed effect, and random-effect methods. then, the selection of the best models of the three models was conducted. the selected model would be tested for classical assumptions. after the step was completed, the next step was the analysis of the regression results of the selected model. the data used in this study were sourced from the data of the ministry of finance of the republic of indonesia and the indonesian central statistics agency from 2008 to 2017. the provinces which were employed as samples were the western part of indonesia, namely; central kalimantan province, south kalimantan, di yogyakarta, central java, banten, bengkulu, south sumatra, jambi, riau, west sumatra, north sumatra, and aceh. whereas, eastern indonesia comprised the provinces of pabar, malut, papua, maluku, ntt, ntb, sulteng, and sulut. basuki, purwaningsih, soesilo, & mulyanto the effect of fiscal policy and foreign direct investment … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 58 figure 2 panel data regression stages source: gujarati (2003) result and discussion figure 3 development of grdp in east indonesian (billion rupiahs) source: indonesia bureau of statistics various publication 2010, 2013, 2016, 2018 (processed) 97705,7975 286779,1118 89850,15333 376698,8949 78273,16786 170095,2971 24482,77917 231966,012 539064,3944 56224,83048 75916,2944 435134,0536 121263,19 487531,23 155963,99 471419,9 136556,71 281544,37 42080,01 409959,69 894050,47 92300,66 121863,85 452847,48 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 800000 900000 1000000 aceh sumut sumbar riau jambi sumsel bengkulu banten jateng diy kalsel kalteng 2017 2008 basuki, purwaningsih, soesilo, & mulyanto the effect of fiscal policy and foreign direct investment … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 59 for the economic growth in western indonesia (sumatera, jawa, and kalimantan, see in figure 3) from 2008 to 2017, the average economic growth was 56.34% (or an annual average of 5.63%). the highest growth occurred in banten province, jambi province, and west sumatra province. whereas the lowest growth occurred in central kalimantan province, aceh province, and riau province. when viewed from natural resources owned by banten province, jambi province, and west sumatra province, they are far lower than natural resources owned by central kalimantan province, aceh province, and riau province. in reality, economic growth exceeds the average growth of indonesian and provincial economies that are rich in human resources. moreover, for the economic growth in eastern indonesia (sulawesi, nusa tenggara, maluku, and papua see in figure 4) from 2008 to 2017, the average economic growth was 85.38% (or an annual average of 8.54%). the highest growth occurred in central sulawesi province, north sulawesi province, and maluku provinces. meanwhile, the lowest growth occurred in the provinces of west papua, east nusa tenggara, and papua (eastern indonesia). the problem faced by the eastern part of indonesia in economic development was that infrastructure problems between regions were not well connected, such as west papua and papua. transportation in papua mostly used air transportation because roads between districts were not yet well connected. thus, it had an impact on the price of basic needs. whereas, east nusa tenggara and maluku are provinces whose territories are islands, so the primary transportation was sea transportation. figure 4 development of grdp in east indonesian (billion rupiahs) source: indonesia bureau of statistics various publication 2010, 2013, 2016, 2018 (processed) from the description of figure 3 and figure 4, it is interesting to study what factors influenced economic growth in western and eastern indonesia. based on the panel data regression results listed in table 1, the regression results obtained three models, namely the common effects model, the fixed effects model, and the random-effects model. 43051,0525 36310,71524 53303,8775 38207,48333 15612,465 89135,2269 12539,0569 36094,65238 79495,34 97551,64 94644,99 62788,08 27811,63 148823,63 23210,86 56906,82 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 sulut sulteng ntb ntt maluku papua malut pabar 2017 2008 basuki, purwaningsih, soesilo, & mulyanto the effect of fiscal policy and foreign direct investment … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 60 table 1 results of panel data regression in western and eastern indonesia dependent variable log (grdp) west indonesia east indonesia none effect fixed effect random effect none effect fixed effect random effect log(po) 0.534 -0.417 -0.014 0.249 -0.112 0.264 (15.48 3) *** (-6.759) *** (-0.193) (3.943) *** (-4.809) *** (18.673) *** log(da) -0.308 0.039 0.041 0.170 0.349 0.131 (6.512) *** (2.253) ** (2.171) ** (0.924) (27.277) *** (3.261) *** log(edu) 0.044 0.040 0.029 0.077 0.013 0.063 (0.974) (4.435) *** (2.159) ** (1.592) (2.942) *** (6.114) *** log(hea) 0.161 0.113 0.125 0.039 0.003 0.023 (2.985) *** (5.590) *** (4.799) *** (1.267) (2.156) ** (3.723) *** log(agri) 0.107 0.014 0.028 0.387 0.016 0.386 (2.236) ** (0.943) (1.531) (3.884) *** (2.440) ** (17.139) *** log(ma) 0.026 0.053 0.055 -0.283 -0.006 -0.236 (0.656) (4.000) *** (3.379) *** (-3.300) *** (-1.245) (-12.796) *** log(fdi) 0.180 -0.001 0.012 0.085 0.025 0.087 (12.53 8) *** (-0.256) (2.110) ** (3.550) *** (13.207) *** (15.868) *** c 20.225 31.561 25.338 15.476 21.928 15.970 (18.75 4) *** (26.043) *** (19.912) *** (4.631) *** (47.920) *** (21.011) *** r-squared 0.897 0.998 0.754 0.759 0.999 0.744 f-statistic 140.03 3 4138.581 49.173 32.536 5731.942 30.049 chow test 601.880* ** 2996.27* ** hausman test 55.00*** 1454.251* ** source: data processing results ( ) t count note : *** significant α = 1% ** significant α = 5% * significant α = 10% of the three models above, the best model was chosen using the chow test and hausman test, and the test results that both produced the best model were the fixed effect model. after the best model was selected, the model was tested with the classical assumption test. the following are the results of the heteroscedasticity test employing a white test in which the independent variable was the squared residual. the results of the heteroscedasticity test (table 2) showed that all independent variables were higher than the 5 % significance level, indicating no heteroscedasticity in the model. basuki, purwaningsih, soesilo, & mulyanto the effect of fiscal policy and foreign direct investment … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 61 table 2 heteroscedasticity test dependent variable log(resid^2) west indonesia east indonesia t-statistic prob. t-statistic prob. log(po) -0.659506 0.5110 1.938669 0.0569 log(da) -1.307625 0.1939 1.167089 0.2474 log(edu) 3.728530 0.0003 0.324498 0.7466 log(hea) -1.434936 0.1543 0.672470 0.5037 log(agri) -0.188465 0.8509 -0.067730 0.9462 log(ma) -0.953963 0.3423 -1.122366 0.2658 log(fdi) 0.142163 0.8872 -0.229876 0.8189 c -0.115127 0.9086 -1.999199 0.0498 source: data processing results the results of the multicollinearity test can be seen in table 3, employing the matrix of correlation. if the correlation coefficient is above 0.85, then there is multicollinearity in the model. nevertheless, so far, all the coefficients were below 0.85, indicating no multicollinearity. table 3 multicollinearity test varia ble west indonesia east indonesia pov edu hea lt agr i ma r dau fdi pov edu hea lt agr i ma r dau fdi pov 1.0 00 0.06 3 0.4 49 0.3 46 0.0 82 0.4 74 0.0 26 1.0 00 0.1 27 0.3 85 0.3 81 0.0 36 0.3 12 0.1 94 edu 0.06 3 1.0 00 0.4 62 0.3 70 0.6 84 0.3 65 0.1 98 0.1 27 1.0 00 0.5 77 0.5 85 0.6 78 0.4 89 0.1 75 healt 0.4 49 0.4 62 1.0 00 0.7 01 0.5 95 0.5 06 0.2 47 0.3 85 0.5 77 1.0 00 0.5 44 0.2 72 0.6 71 0.5 32 agri 0.3 46 0.3 70 0.7 01 1.0 00 0.6 42 0.4 33 0.0 67 0.3 81 0.5 85 0.5 44 1.0 00 0.6 71 0.6 66 0.5 62 mar 0.0 82 0.6 84 0.5 95 0.6 42 1.0 00 0.3 67 0.0 58 0.0 36 0.6 78 0.2 72 0.6 71 1.0 00 0.6 19 0.3 29 dau 0.4 74 0.3 65 0.5 06 0.4 33 0.3 67 1.0 00 0.0 98 0.3 12 0.4 89 0.6 71 0.6 66 0.6 19 1.0 00 0.6 78 fdi 0.0 26 0.1 98 0.2 47 0.0 67 0.0 58 0.0 98 1.0 00 0.1 94 0.1 75 0.5 32 0.5 62 0.3 29 0.6 78 1.0 00 source: data processing results after the classic assumption test was carried out, it was necessary to test the granger causality. granger causality test is intended to determine the causal relationship of each independent variable on the dependent variable. in this study, granger causality test was aimed more at the factors that influenced the grdp growth rate, namely the poor population, general allocation funds, local government expenditure on education, regional government expenditure on health, regional government expenditure on agriculture and local government expenditure on maritime affairs, and investment foreign. basuki, purwaningsih, soesilo, & mulyanto the effect of fiscal policy and foreign direct investment … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 62 table 4 pairwise granger causality test null hypothesis obs f-statistic prob pov does not grange cause grdp 180 68.7333 0.0000 grdp does not grange cause pov 180 2.57823 0.1101 dau does not grange cause grdp 180 21.5582 0.0000 grdp does not grange cause dau 180 8.98943 0.0031 edu does not grange cause grdp 180 4.16948 0.0426 grdp does not grange cause edu 180 1.33353 0.2497 health does not grange cause grdp 180 1.52415 0.2186 grdp does not grange cause health 180 5.95196 0.0157 agri does not grange cause 180 3.00920 0.0845 grdp does not grange cause agri 180 7.34046 0.0074 mar does not grange cause grdp 180 1.19621 0.2756 grdp does not grange cause mar 180 0.12036 0.7291 fdi does not grange cause grdp 180 2.21632 0.1383 grdp does not grange cause fdi 180 12.4122 0.0005 source: author, 2019 based on table 4, it is explained that the variables that had a granger causality relationship were variables with a probability value smaller than 𝑎 = 0.05, namely the expenditure on health, expenditures for agriculture and the general allocation fund. whereas, the probability value, which was smaller than 𝑎 = 0.1, was the poor population, education expenditures and marine expenditures. as foreign investment did not have an influence toward the grdp growth rate. besides, the expenditures on health had a two-way relationship. the analysis model in this study was divided into two models (table 5), namely model 1 and model 2 for western indonesia and eastern indonesia, respectively. model 1 and model 2 for western indonesia showed that all variables influenced economic growth, except the budget for the agricultural sector. for model 1, the number of poor people had a negative effect on economic growth. it means that if the number of poor people decreased by 1 percent, it would encourage economic growth by 0.41 percent. in this case, the poverty alleviation program is very effective in promoting economic growth. the role of the general allocation fund for model 1 influenced economic growth, meaning that if there was an increase in the general allocation fund budget from the central government to regional governments by 1 percent, it would encourage economic growth by 0.039 percent. whereas the role of budget policies for education, health, and marine affected economic growth, indicating that if the three budgets were raised by 1%, it would encourage economic growth by 0.206%. if the regional government of western indonesia wants to increase economic growth by 1%, then the local government should increase the budget by 4.85%. besides, if model 2 was employed to increase 1% of economic growth, an additional 4.11% of the budget for education, health, and marine should be added to support the development program. basuki, purwaningsih, soesilo, & mulyanto the effect of fiscal policy and foreign direct investment … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 63 table 5 best model regression results source: author, 2018 note: ( ) t count *** significant α = 1% ** significant α = 5% * significant α = 10% foreign investment is considered to be something that can fill the gap between savings raised from within the country, foreign exchange reserves, government revenue, and expertise on the one hand and the amount needed to achieve development goals on the other hand (todaro, 2000). chaudhry et al. (2013) and abala (2014) have carried out a study on the relationship between foreign investment and economic growth, indicating that foreign investment could have a positive relationship with economic growth. meanwhile, the role of foreign investment had a negative impact on economic growth. it means that if foreign investment increased by 1%, it would cause economic growth to fall by 0.001%. although the effect was very small, the government should overcome this serious problem, because it would threaten macroeconomic stability. in line with olabisi and oloni's (2012) research uncovered that foreign investment had a negative relationship with growth. model 1 and model 2 for eastern indonesia showed that all variables had an effect on economic growth except the budget for the marine sector. for model 1, the number of poor people negatively influenced economic growth. it means that if the number of poor people decreased by 1%, it would encourage economic growth by 0.11%. the poverty alleviation program in eastern indonesia was less effective compared to western indonesia, although the biggest problem for poverty in indonesia was in the eastern indonesia region. the role of the general allocation fund for model 1 in eastern indonesia affected economic growth. it indicated that if there was an increase in the budget, the general allocation fund from the central government to regional governments by 1%, it would encourage dependent variable log(grdp) fixed effect west indonesia east indonesia model 1 model 2 model 1 model 2 log(po) -0.417 -0.112 (-6.759) *** (-4.809) *** log(da) 0.039 0.052 0.349 0.440 (2.253) ** (2.477) ** (27.277) *** (30.628) *** log(edu) 0.040 0.033 0.013 0.0037 (4.435) *** (2.845) *** (2.942) *** (1.081) log(hea) 0.113 0.136 0.003 0.005 (5.590) *** (6.764) *** (2.156) ** (6.257) *** log(agri) 0.014 0.023 0.016 0.025 (0.943) (1.404) (2.440) ** (3.890) *** log(ma) 0.053 0.074 -0.006 0.007 (4.000) *** (4.794) *** (-1.245) (1.635) log(fdi) -0.001 0.025 (-0.256) (13.207) *** c 31.561 24.428 21.928 18.303 (26.043) *** (54.965) *** (47.920) *** (44.109) *** r-squared 0.998 0.996 0.999 0.999 f-statistic 4138.581*** 2027.68*** 5731.942*** 6586.46*** basuki, purwaningsih, soesilo, & mulyanto the effect of fiscal policy and foreign direct investment … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 64 economic growth by 0.349%. the coefficient of the general fund allocation was higher than the coefficient in the western part of indonesia, meaning that the dependence of the eastern part of indonesia on the revenue sharing of the central and regional governments was very high. meanwhile, the role of budget policies for education, health, and agriculture affected economic growth. if the three budgets were raised by 1%, it would encourage economic growth by 0.032%. if the government in eastern indonesia wants to increase economic growth by 1%, then the local government should increase the budget by 31.25%. meanwhile, if employing model 2 to increase 1% of economic growth, an additional 33.33% of the budget for education, health, and agriculture was needed. further, the role of foreign investment had a positive impact on economic growth. it means that if foreign investment increased by 1%, it would cause an increase in the economic growth of 0.025%. indonesia is a developing country, and the main problem is a large number of poor and unemployed people. most poverty exists in eastern indonesia so that the efforts to reduce the number of poor people are prioritized for the eastern region. one way to overcome poverty is; first, the central government policy through the regional government guarantees a sense of security for vulnerable groups (female household heads, poor people, older people, neglected children, various abilities, and people with disabilities) and new poor people caused by natural disasters, or by the impact of the economic crisis and social conflict. second, creating economic and social environmental conditions enables the poor to get the broadest possible opportunity to fulfill their rights and sustainably improve their living standards. also, by providing pro-poor stimulation and regulation, the economic and social costs faced by them can be reduced. besides, optimal services to improve the incomes of the poor can be provided. since 2000, indonesia has implemented regional autonomy. regional governments are given the right to carry out their economic development in accordance with the capabilities of each region. based on the results of the analysis, there has been a gap between the use of revenue sharing funds between the central government and regional governments in western and eastern indonesia. the dependence of eastern indonesia on general allocation funds is very high compared to western indonesia, so the independence of the provinces in eastern indonesia is still very weak, or the source of funds for regional economic development is highly dependent on the central government. the higher the fiscal capacity of a region, the less dependence of the region on the allocation from the center. however, if the opposite occurs, then its dependence on transfers of funds from the center will be even higher. to overcome this problem, the use of general fund allocations should be used properly. then, before the central government provides general allocation funds to local governments, it is necessary to look at the effectiveness of regional transfer funds in the development of a region. the government needs to ensure that general allocation funds can be used by local governments to encourage economic growth. the second problem is the management of fiscal policy; there has been a gap between western indonesia and eastern indonesia. the policy of employing the budget for education, health, agriculture, and marine is more effective in encouraging economic growth in western indonesia compared to eastern indonesia. basuki, purwaningsih, soesilo, & mulyanto the effect of fiscal policy and foreign direct investment … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 65 research on the relationship between government spending on education with economic growth has been carried out by al-shatti (2014), grabova (2014), idrees and siddiqi (2013), nworji, okwu, obiwuru, and nworji (2012), olabisi and oloni (2012). the study conducted by idrees and siddiqi (2013) and nworji et al. (2012) concluded that government spending on education had a positive influence toward economic development. grabova's (2014) research revealed that government spending on education had a negative effect on economic growth. however, research by al-shafti (2014), olabisi and oloni (2012) found that government spending on education had no impact on economic growth. the studies on the relationship between government spending on health with economic growth were done by al-shafti (2014) and nworji et al. (2012). the study discovered that government spending on health had a positive influence toward economic growth in several countries. furthermore research on the relationship between government spending on maritime economic growth was conducted by huda and firdaus (2015) and agustine (2014). the results of the study discovered that government spending on fisheries and marine affairs had a positive relationship with economic growth. the central government policy to reduce fiscal disparities between regions used the general allocation funds tool so that the region's ability to manage and develop regions was relatively and evenly distributed. this allocation system was established by law no. 25 of 2000, which was later revised by law no. 33 of 2004 concerning central and regional financial balances. besides, the investigation on the relationship between the general allocation fund with economic growth was carried out by ahmad (2011), manik and higayat (2010). the results of the study revealed that the general allocation fund had a positive relationship with economic growth. furthermore, muti'ah's (2017) research concluded that the balanced fund in the form of a general allocation fund had no effect on economic growth. the gap between the use of revenue sharing funds between the central government and regional governments in western and eastern indonesia is caused by the lack of human resources in eastern indonesia and the difficulty of transportation between regions in eastern indonesia. to overcome this problem, local governments are required to strengthen fiscal management to accelerate equitable growth. to run the program, there are three fiscal strategies used. the first strategy is optimizing regional income while maintaining the investment climate. the second one is spending efficiency and increasing productive spending to encourage economic growth while supporting efforts to reduce poverty, diminish inequality, and create employment. also, the third strategy is encouraging innovative, sustainable, and efficient financing. in addition, there is also a gap in the role of foreign investment in economic growth between western indonesia and eastern indonesia. for western indonesia, foreign investment has a negative influence toward economic growth, but vice versa for foreign investment. however, eastern indonesia has a positive effect on economic growth. the government had an obligation to prioritize increasing foreign investment in eastern indonesia because the increased foreign investment increases employment basuki, purwaningsih, soesilo, & mulyanto the effect of fiscal policy and foreign direct investment … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 66 opportunities. then, the presence of new factories has a positive impact on the domestic economy through the demand side: increasing employment opportunities, increasing the ability of public spending, and subsequently increasing demand in the domestic market. the role of foreign investment is becoming an essential source of technology and other knowledge transfer, through local workers working in foreign companies. when these workers move to domestic companies, they bring new knowledge or expertise from foreign companies to domestic companies. conclusion taking into consideration of empirical insights from this research, it could be concluded the government spending-economic growth nexus. first, the gap was in the use of general allocation funds, namely funds from the central government to regional governments. local governments in eastern indonesia relied more on general allocation funds in promoting economic development through the accuracy of using development programs rather than local governments in western indonesia. eastern indonesia is more dependent on equalization funds from the central government to local governments to encourage economic growth compared to western indonesia. to overcome the gap between central and regional financial dependencies in driving economic growth between western and eastern indonesia, the following steps need to be taken; in stipulating revenue sharing between the center and the regions, priority must be given to capital expenditure compared to personnel expenditure, and for additional employee expenditure, it is better to prioritize to be funded by regional taxes and regional user fees. thus, if the budget allocation for capital expenditure through the balance funds from the central government rises, an increase in capital expenditure will encourage the rate of economic growth. another factor influencing local government dependence on general allocation funds is the lack of involvement of regional companies as a source of revenue. local governments also need to conduct policies that are conducive to the development of companies into professional companies, and operationally monitor and evaluate the performance of key companies that can encourage competitiveness. decentralization creates autonomous regions that depend on central government transfers to regional governments. second, the gap is in the ability to use development programs through fiscal policy. programs through fiscal policy in western indonesia are more effective in driving economic growth than eastern indonesia. the step to overcoming this is the need for synergy between the central government and regional governments to integrate the central government budget with the regional government budget. cooperation between fiscal authorities is essential that regional budgets should become instruments to reduce unemployment, poverty, inequality, and realize equitable development. the role of foreign investment is more effectively developed in eastern indonesia compared to western indonesia, so the central government needs to prioritize facilities and infrastructure in encouraging foreign investment into eastern indonesia. it can be achieved by improving good and integrated physical infrastructure and superstructure in various regions in indonesia; 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(2019). the impact of natural gas demand on renewable energy development: a panel investigation of six asian countries. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 20(1), 71-88 article history received: march 2019 accepted: april 2019 http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp sudaryanto the impact of natural gas demand on renewable energy development: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 72 2016 where it hits the lowest price at 40.68 usd per barrel from 105.87 usd per barrel in 2013 (statista 2018). the events have given impact on natural gas and other energy sectors and it led to a global recession (setser, 2004). based on the investigation done by oxford institute for energy studies, the first reason to the crisis in 1998 are the high level of oil inventories although it is not as high as it was declared. the second reason is the signs of economic situation in asia with economic stagnation in japan will not improve for a long time (fattouh and mahadeva 2013). klass (2003) also added that the investigation of energy demand is a crucial input to the analysis of future energy usage and the impact of regulations responses. to understand the dynamics of the natural gas market, the element of economic and socio-political aspects cannot be separated. especially in asia, the natural gas market can be classified into different ranges. as suggested by kaygusuz et al (2007), kaygusuz (2007) and aspergis and payne (2010), the government’s incentive to establish tradable renewable energy can bring potential benefits for an expansion in the renewable energy sector. similarly in asia, according to stern (2017), there are four determinants that drive the growth of natural gas in asian gas market. first, the potential decline in production or pipeline gas imports. second, security supply, environmental policies and energy mix are favourable to the country. third, upstream investment issues with less sufficient development growth and the last one is the affordability in domestic gas price including the production and import restrictions. these characteristics will be assessed in the next chapter. in the era where the world is shifting to sustainable energy, several countries have started to put attention on renewable energy through socio-political and finance elements. particularly in government instrument, it is believed by many experts to be essential for the development of renewable energy. several countries in asia are adopting similar regulation. for instance, malaysian and thailand’s cabinet have started to support the growth of renewable energy industry by approving the implementation of renewable energy act for feed-in-tariff (fit), which means the consumers are accountable for higher charge for higher electricity consumption due to higher carbon emissions (ahmad et al. 2011). technical wise, malaysia has started the development through hydrogen production utilization by utilizing the palm oil solid waste each year. however, malaysia’s renewable capacity was less than 1% of the total installed capacity in 2012 (ahmad and tahar, 2014). in overall, malaysian’s government had collaborated with the private sector and announced the short, medium and long term plan to develop renewable energy (hosseini et al. 2015). other asian country like japan have also disclosed their commitments to reduce greenhouse gas through the similar framework (kumar et al. 2011). despite the renewable resource and sustainable energy system represent environmentally friendly also cost-effective means of providing electricity, issues with renewable energy development is still relatively slow and the extensive potential renewable resource in asia may potentially bring benefit to the economic growth. sudaryanto the impact of natural gas demand on renewable energy development: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 73 there have been numerous academic research conducted relating natural gas demand in different countries and region. it is acknowledged that the empirical literature on the energy consumption growth nexus is still limited. apergis and payne (2010) conducted a panel investigation of natural gas consumption and economic growth of 67 countries. the multivariate framework used is similar to this study which includes gdp (constant 2000 us dollars), real gross fixed capital formation, natural gas consumption and total labour force. by using a heterogeneous panel co-integration test, the correlation revealed bidirectional causality between natural gas consumption and economic growth in short and long run. another study conducted by reynolds and kolodzieji (2008) who examined the relationship between natural gas, oil, and coal production and gdp in the former soviet union. through granger-causality tests within a bivariate framework, the study revealed unidirectional causality from oil production to gdp and unidirectional causality between gdp and coal production as well as natural gas production, respectively. however, malik (2009) verified in the modelling renewable energy consumption research that it has been found that gas reserve as one of the macro-economic variables becomes significant with a negative sign in pooled and period fixed effect. another study conducted by sensfuß, ragwitz and genoese (2008) who examined the price effect created by renewable energy for electricity share. it is mentioned in the study that gas price disproportionately has a high impact on the growth of the merit-order effect in the growing renewable electricity generation. similarly, berry (2005) argues that the volatility of natural gas is high and by hedging wind energy can deliver cost-effective against natural gas price increase. the study examined five cases using analysis of the cost marginal conventional generation with probability distribution of the gas prices, cost of wind energy, wind integration cost, wind capacity value, wind transmission cost and environmental benefits of wind for a hypothetical utility. the study revealed that the effectivity to hedge against natural gas price increase depends on the conventional generation system and the cost of wind energy. the study suggests that higher electricity reliance on natural gas implies better hedge on wind energy and vice versa. the rising energy consumption for electricity, precarious nature of dependency of fossil fuel has enforced many countries to look into renewable energy to sustenance the energy source. according to dincer (2000), renewable energy resources seem to be one of the most efficient and effective solutions to air pollutions. moreover, zero emission production by renewable energy is believed to be the efficient solution to reduce the climate change and capable to replace conventional sources in various applications at a competitive price (aras et al. 2004). however, investing in one from various renewable can become a robust project for the stakeholders. beck and martinot (2004) stated that economic barriers in renewable including the lack of subsidy, barriers in legal is inadequate legal frameworks for energy power sources and the financial barriers including lack of economic support such as commercial information, access to credit for both customers and investors. sudaryanto the impact of natural gas demand on renewable energy development: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 74 in the current sustainability development, renewable energy still requires a lot of effort may it be through government support or investment. beck and martinot (2004) stated that economic barriers in renewable including the lack of subsidy, barriers in legal is inadequate legal frameworks for energy power sources and the financial barriers including lack of economic support such as commercial information, access to credit for both customers and investors. in energy demand study, usually developing countries have a higher contribution on the growth rather than developed as they account for a larger share of gdp and less efficient energy usage. therefore, the main contribution of this study is to pull together the data that differs across individual countries using panel data analysis. through this analysis, it allows the researcher to study the dynamics of change on natural gas demand and the renewable energy consumption for each region within 14 year time period. the selected countries are based on two regions in asia which represent developed and developing countries. first, it attempts to determine the correlation between natural gas and renewable energy. since asia has a high contribution in natural gas, it is important to understand to estimate the significance renewable energy consumption to the level of natural gas demand. then, this paper applied general leased square (gls) estimation to find the causation of renewable energy demand based on natural gas consumption and selected macroeconomic indicators for both regions. thus, the result will allow the researcher to develop recommendations for policy makers in order to enhance the pace of renewable energy development in asia. research method panel data in panel data, the same cross-sectional unit, such as country, is collected over time (gujarati, 2004). typically, it has a relatively large number of observations. panel data approach has several advantages (baltagi, 2005). not only it provides more variability, less collinearity among explanatory variables, more degrees of freedom, and more variation which result in more efficient estimators but also it can test more complex behavioural models than a single cross-section or time series. however, panel data is not perfect as it assumes that units of observation will have similar behaviour. data collection this study seeks to analyse information on the magnitude of renewable energy demand with respect to other types of energy and macroeconomic indicators. secondary data is chosen to gather data for this research analysis. secondary data collection defined as gathering the present data from various sources such as textual material, online journals and articles which enable researcher arrives at the solution of the research (rew et al. 2000). in this quantitative research, panel data are collected through several online websites. by referring to the popularity of the author and authoritative is important in bringing credibility to the research project. (rajaseka et al. 2006). sudaryanto the impact of natural gas demand on renewable energy development: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 75 the data for this study covers six selected countries in a period of 15 years from 2000 to 2014. these countries consist of china, japan, south korea, indonesia, malaysia and thailand. data on renewable energy consumption, gross domestic product (gdp) per capita at constant price 2000, economic growth, access to electricity and real exchange rate are taken from world bank. further, data on natural gas consumption are retrieved from the united nations (un). these reliable resources have been cited in numerous studies. correlation in quantitative research, it is often of interest to consider a pair of variables and determine if there is a relationship between the two. such a relationship is called a correlation. there are three types of correlation based on what happens to other variables if one variable increases. a positive correlation implies that another variable is likely to incline as well. a negative correlation means that other variable is likely to decline. no correlation shows that another variable does not have a tendency to either increase or decrease. in a scatterplot, these types of correlation can be shown as follows. (a) (b) (c) figure 1 scatterplot diagrams for (a) negative correlation; (b) no correlation; (c) positive correlation statistically, pearson’s correlation coefficient is used to measure the direction and strength of a linear relationship between paired data. it is denoted by r which ranges from -1 to 1. positive values are attributed to a positive linear correlation. negative values show a negative linear correlation. zero value denotes no linear correlation but it does not necessarily imply that there is no relationship between the variables. while the closer the value to get to 1 or -1, the stronger the linear correlation. the formula for pearson’s correlation coefficient can be written as follows. r = ∑(x−x̅)(y−y̅) √∑(x−x̅)2 ∑(y−y̅)2 (1.1) correlation measures an effect size which enables us to describe the strength of the correlation. based on guide from evans (1996) the absolute value of r: very weak (0.00 0.19), weak (0.20 0.39), moderate (0.40 – 0.59), strong (0.60 – 0.79), and very strong (0.80 – 1.00). for instance, a coefficient correlation of 0.45 implies a moderate positive correlation (benzer, benzer and günal 2017). sudaryanto the impact of natural gas demand on renewable energy development: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 76 specification of the model (random effect) in this study, the renewable energy consumption equation is written in logarithm form as shown in equation (1.2). the dependent variable here is recit or renewable energy consumption as a percentage of total final energy consumption. it approximates the amount of renewable energy that people are willing and able to consume in a particular period. one important factor which influences renewable energy demand is the price itself. however, as there is no statistical information about it, the author cannot include this factor in the model. recit = β0 + β1log (ngcit) + β2log (yit) + β3grit + β4aeit + β5log (rerit) + β6di + εit (1.2) rec : renewable energy consumption β0 : intercept ngc : natural gas consumption y : gdp per capita gr : economic growth ae : access to electricity rer : real exchange rate di : dummy variables εit : error term i : individual unit (country) t : time as the main interest in this study, natural gas consumption is used as an explanatory variable. however, its relationship with renewable energy consumption is still inconclusive, whether it is complementary or substitute, depending on the context. while, real gdp per capita (yit) is used to quantify income elasticity. apparently, there are other macroeconomic factors that are included in the model as it potentially influences renewable energy consumption, including economic growth (grit) and the real exchange rate (rerit). the control variables in this model include access to electricity (aeit) and also dummy variable (di) which is applied to capture the different pattern of renewable energy consumption between southeast asia and east asia. in the model, the subscript i refer to the observational unit, which is country, and the subscript t for time index. however, there are many other explanatory variables which probably affect renewable energy consumption, such as energy policies and innovations. since such variables are difficult to approximate, they will be captured in error terms (εit). data associated with the equation (1.2) are compiled and then estimated by multiple regression models in order to obtain unknown parameters (β). the renewable energy equation is estimated both simultaneously and separately for each region. basically, there are three types of models in estimating panel data: pooled effect, fixed effect, and random effect. pooled effect model does not consider any cross-section heterogeneity among the countries. it assumes a common intercept and the same slope coefficients. the pooled effect model can be written in the equation (1.3) where yit is the dependent variable for the individual i at time t, x1it and x2it are the time-variant indesudaryanto the impact of natural gas demand on renewable energy development: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 77 pendent variables; β0 is the intercept; β1 and β2 are coefficients of the slope and εit is the error term. yit = β0 + β1x1it + β2x2it + εit (1.3) the assumption of a common intercept is then relaxed for the regression. in order to distinguish between different effects, equation (1.3) can be rewritten as follows where αi is unobservable individual effect and uit is the error term. yit = β0 + β1x1it + β2x2it + αi + uit (1.4) fixed effect model and random effect model attempt to deal with the unobservable individual effect. fixed effect model assumes that αi is not independent of x1it and x2it. the intercept can differ across individuals but the individual-specific effects cannot vary over time (gujarati, 2004). this model does not allow the coefficients of the explanatory variables to fluctuate over time or across individuals. fixed effect model incorporates the individual-specific effects as dummy variables. if it includes too many dummy variables, the model will suffer from losing a number of degrees of freedom. with these limitations, fixed effect model would be less suitable for this study. different from fixed effect, random effect model assumes that αi is independent of x1it and x2it and uit is a randomly distributed individual specific effect with mean 0 and variance σit2 (balestra and nerlove, 1966). the individuals-specific effects are treated as error components in random effect. the random effect has an advantage over fixed effect as it generates estimates for all coefficients with no exception of time-invariant ones and uses few degrees of freedom. since this study uses panel data, heteroscedasticity may arise if the variances of the errors are not constant. autocorrelation problem may also occur if the error in one period is correlated with the error in the subsequent period. even though both problems do not cause bias, the standard errors may be underestimated which in turn lead to non-reliable results due to inefficient result coefficients. the bias of the standard errors can be corrected with robust standard errors by using generalized least square (gls) to take into account of heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation problem in panel data regression. trend analysis after conducting the panel data analysis, some implications are made and linked to the current development of renewable energy consumption. trend analysis emphasizes the changes and normally used to anticipate the future outcome of renewable energy demand. trend analysis in this research will be conducted by collecting information about renewable energy consumption from multiple time periods and plotting them on a horizontal line for further review. trend analysis will be useful for complementary analysis in this study as it intends to spot actionable patterns in the reported information. the trend analysis in this research will indicate 14 years of consumption of renewable energy within the time period of 2000 to 2014. through this analysis, the trend of renewable energy development can be illustrated. sudaryanto the impact of natural gas demand on renewable energy development: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 78 result and discussion data description table 1 descriptive statistics of selected variables mean std. dev. min max renewable energy consumption (million tons) east asia 8.83 22.07 0 102.28 southeast asia 5.77 5.49 0.24 23.62 natural gas consumption (million tons) east asia 45.16 33.62 17.03 161.96 southeast asia 48.64 25.39 18.22 105.25 real gdp per capita (billion usd) east asia 3811.69 2360.17 710.03 8333.29 southeast asia 398.05 215.08 162.52 942.18 economic growth (%) east asia 5.01 4.21 -5.42 14.23 southeast asia 4.87 2.16 -1.51 8.86 access to electricity (% population) east asia 99.30 1.45 94.80 100 southeast asia 94.35 5.21 82.1 100 source: world bank (2015) and british petroleum statistics review (2015) table 1 presents the descriptive statistics of variables of interest in this study from 2000 to 2014. as a proxy of renewable energy development, renewable energy consumption in east asia is higher than that of southeast asia. differently, southeast asia slightly has higher natural gas consumption than that of east asia. since natural gas and renewable energy contribute in electricity share, in terms of macroeconomic conditions east asia has larger real gdp per capita and faster economic growth, indicating that the region is wealthier and grows faster even though it has more variability in the data. east asia also has more percentage of population with access to electricity. objective 1: correlation of renewable energy and natural gas consumption this section seeks to answer the first research question through the use of scatter diagram and coefficient correlation. figure 1 describes the relationship between renewable energy consumption and natural gas consumption. here, renewable energy consumption is calculated as the sum of consumption in solar, wind, geothermal, biomass and other renewables, while natural gas consumption exclude its conversion to liquid fuels but includes coal derivatives and gas-to-liquids transformation. both energy consumptions are denoted in million tons oil equivalent. if we aggregate all selected countries, the relationship between renewable energy consumption and natural gas consumption seems to be positive. as shown by the fitted line in panel (a), higher natural gas consumption is associated with higher renewable energy consumption. formally, in order to check a statistical relationship between both variables, pearson correlation coefficient is calculated. it is found that the correlation coefficient is 0.872. this statistical measure indicates strong relationship between renewable energy and natural gas consumption as its value approaches one. sudaryanto the impact of natural gas demand on renewable energy development: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 79 (a) (b) (c) figure 2 renewable energy and natural gas consumption in (a) selected asian countries; (b) selected east asian countries; (c) selected southeast asian countries 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8 0 1 0 0 0 50 100 150 natural gas consumption (mtoe) fitted values renewable energy consumption (mtoe) 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8 0 1 0 0 0 50 100 150 natural gas consumption (mtoe) fitted values renewable energy consumption (mtoe) 0 5 10 15 20 25 20 40 60 80 100 natural gas consumption (mtoe) fitted values renewable energy consumption (mtoe) sudaryanto the impact of natural gas demand on renewable energy development: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 80 if we split the observations into two sub-samples the relationship between both variable looks more apparent. both in east asia and southeast asia, there seems to be a positive link between renewable energy and natural gas consumption as observed by the fitted lines in panel (b) and (c). in terms of pearson correlation coefficient, the relationship between both variables indicated there is a slight stronger correlation in southeast asia with coefficient of 0.964 than in east asia with 0.959. nevertheless, these statistical figures do not imply that more consumption of natural gas causes higher share of renewable energy consumption in total energy demand, or otherwise. since correlation does not necessarily mean causation, regression technique is then used to identify the causal effect of natural gas consumption to renewable energy demand. objective 2 and 3: regression analysis & causal relationship. this section attempts to answer the second and third question of this study in subsection a and b, consecutively. a multiple regression model is then estimated by generalized least square (gls) to find the causation of renewable energy demand based on natural gas consumption and selected macroeconomic indicators. the relevant variables are converted to logarithms. the dependent variable is renewable energy consumption, while the explanatory variables include natural gas consumption, real gdp per capita, economic growth, real exchange rate, access to electricity, and dummy variable for region. the estimation results for each asian region are shown in table 1. basically, the table presents the estimated coefficients for the parameter in the model. as mentioned in the previous section, autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity are common problem in panel data. in order to anticipate this issue, the standard errors are corrected to be robust for analysis as shown in the parentheses. table 2 summary of regression results variables all samples east asia southeast asia log natural gas consumption 2.476*** 2.913*** 4.429*** (0.319) (1.400) (0.573) log real gdp per capita -0.406*** -0.668 0.548 (0.135) (0.637) (0.353) economic growth (%) 0.029 -0.027 -0.009 (0.034) (0.035) (0.010) log real exchange rate -0.085 0.113 -0.337*** (0.053) (0.199) (0.114) access to electricity (% population) 0.057* -0.070 -0.090*** (0.032) (0.654) (0.018) dummy (southeast asia = 1, east asia = 0) 0.424 (0.267) constant -13.618*** -1.080 -8.468*** (2.363) (58.827) (1.418) r2 0.817 0.843 0.846 observations 90 45 45 *, **, ***: significant at 10%, 5%, 1% sudaryanto the impact of natural gas demand on renewable energy development: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 81 a. the effect of natural gas consumption on renewable energy consumption table 1 reveals that most of the coefficients are found to be statistically significant. the coefficient for natural gas consumption is positive and considerably high, particularly in the southeast asia. a rise in natural gas consumption by 1% will drive up the consumption for renewable energy by 4.43% in southeast asia on average, and up to 2.48% in all samples. this result indicates that an increase in natural gas consumption will be followed by a rise in renewable energy demand, implying that these energy sources are not competitors. they are not mutually exclusive yet rather complementary in many respects. electricity generation from natural gas has low upfront capital costs and variable fuel costs, while renewable energy generators have higher fixed costs but zero fuel costs (kim et al., 2012). natural gas is the main input for production of corn starch ethanol fuel, and technology experiences could use of both forms of energy in vehicles. economically, natural gas is affordable and available on demand. it provides important support in the absence of sunshine or the wind. a cal-berkeley professor, richard muller, stated that natural gas makes solar and wind energy penetrate electricity markets more easily through the provision of backup that those intermittent sources need. by nature it is clean and even it is the cleanest-burning fossil fuel. natural gas emits around half as much carbon dioxide, one-fifth of carbon monoxide, and almost no sulphur dioxide or mercury. for these reasons, the consumption growth of natural gas and renewable energy is interdependent. that is why the result of this study exhibits that both of renewable energy and natural gas consumption seem to move together in the same direction over time. therefore, this finding implies that synergies between the natural gas and renewable energy industries should be encouraged. the business collaboration that capitalizes on both forms of energy can access new revenue flows including wholesale market opportunities for the distribution, arbitrage opportunities from shared infrastructure for upstream and downstream level, and energy services that offer reduced costs (cochran et al., 2014). policy makers can use this foundation to design complementary energy policies to guide the development of energy industry. continued reliance on natural gas will support sustainable use of renewable energy in the energy market and help to reduce carbon emissions. b. the effect of macroeconomic indicators on renewable energy consumption in the context of macroeconomic indicators, the real gdp per capita, which refers to country income, is shown to be inelastic and negative in all samples. even though the result is less apparent for the breakdown sub-samples, asian countries tend to forego renewable energy consumption when their country income increases. as shown by negative coefficient, renewable energy can be regarded as inferior types of energy in asian countries. it is estimated that 1% increase in gdp per capita will lower the renewable energy consumption by 0.406% on average in all samples. this result is different from similar studies which reveal that increase in real gdp per capita has a sudaryanto the impact of natural gas demand on renewable energy development: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 82 positive impact on renewable energy consumption in emerging markets (sadorsky, 2009; apergis and payne, 2010). this difference due to various reasons, such as differences in number of samples, methodology, and time-period. sadorsky (2009) conducted larger sample of 18 countries whilst apergis and payne (2010) conducted a sample of 13 countries (1992 -2007). although this research conducted with lesser sample, the time series data employed in this research is 2000-2014 which considered far recent than the previous studies. sadorsky (2009) raw data collected with six years lesser than this study with time period of 1994-2003, whilst apergis and payne (2010) used data series period 1992-2007. therefore, these differences may have accounted for the dissimilarity of the result. nonetheless, the coefficients for economic growth are insignificant implying that higher economic growth does not have any impact on the demand for renewable energy. this insignificant result may result from typical asian countries as growing economies which shift from primary industrial sectors to less energy intensive of service sectors (squall, 2007). besides, there are numerous barriers and risks of taking up renewable energy technology. compared to conventional generation technologies using fossil fuel, renewable energy technology has higher financial cost. by its nature, renewable energy technology is normally categorized by large up-front fixed costs even though its on-going operational costs are low since the fuel is free with minimal maintenance. for example, around 75% of the total cost for a wind turbine is associated with upfront cost, including the foundation, cost of turbine, electrical appliances, and grid-connection. typically, wind power may be sold on long-term agreement with duration of 15-25 years to minimize the investment risks. moreover, long-term funding is often difficult to obtain in asian countries, which may be partly due to government control or other restrictions on long-term lending. not only long-term financing but also access funds on a project finance basis become another issue to address in renewable energy technology. this financing issue will deter the use of renewable energy, especially in countries with main concern in affordability regardless the higher income or economic growth. besides, lack of familiarity and experience with renewable energy technology becomes another barrier which makes policy makers unable to evaluate the feasibility and risks of the projects with confidence. although the implication of renewable energy policy such as fit and rps can help to induce the renewable energy development in asia with greater percentage, the performance and effectiveness of the scheme should be evaluated continuously. in significant to the result (table 1), policy makers should highlight the importance of gdp inelasticity plays an important role in helping to explain the renewable energy consumption. the real exchange rate depreciation has impact on the renewable energy consumption only in southeast asia. the estimation shows that 1% currency depreciation will reduce the consumption of renewable energy by 0.337% on average in southeast asia. this negative coefficient implies that southeast asian countries would substitute with nonrenewable energy when their respective domestic currency depreciates. one way to finance renewable energy investment is through foreign debt. if the debt is denominated in usd, unexpected depreciation in domestic currency would put a lot of pressure in resudaryanto the impact of natural gas demand on renewable energy development: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 83 newable energy project, make the investment more costly. as a consequence, renewable energy becomes less competitive than conventional fossil fuel energy while generating power project. c. the role of control variables the estimates also include the vector of controls. the table 1 shows that access to electricity is negatively associated with renewable energy consumption in east asia. this finding implies that the more population covered by electricity, the less indication of their need for renewable energy. an exception is for southeast asia, where the coefficient of access to electricity is positive. more electricity access would drive these countries to demand for renewable energy. this result can be explained by the different characteristics of electricity access in east asia and southeast asia in which most of east asian countries have the whole population accessing the electricity. majority of southeast asian people are living in rural areas, while most of them utilize traditional biomass. the result estimates that any 1% increase in access to electricity will lead to lower the renewable energy consumption by 0.09% in southeast asia. meanwhile, the insignificant estimate in dummy region shows that there are no different patterns of renewable energy consumption between east asia and southeast asia. it is different from southeast asian countries that still require more demand for an alternative energy to generate electricity power which is expected to accommodate the entire population. meanwhile, the insignificant estimate in dummy region shows that there are no different patterns of renewable energy consumption between east asia and southeast asia. d. goodness of fit (r2) this statistics measures of how fit the data are to the regression line based on the percentage of the dependent variable variation explained by a regression model. it is also called as the goodness of fit. the value of r2 is always between 0 and 100%. the closer the r2 to 0 defines the less variability of the response data is around its mean. while the closer r2 to 100%, it means the more variability of the response data around its mean. generally, when the r2 gets higher, the better the model fits the data. in this model, the r2 values are quite high as shown in the table. the selected variables account for more than 80% of the variation in renewable energy consumption, while the remaining 20% is attributed to unknown. hence, it can be said that the regression model here fits the data well. objective 4: trend analysis basically, this section attempts to answer the fourth question of this study. figure 2 shows the development of renewable energy consumption during the last fifteen years in east asian countries and southeast asian countries. it can be seen that east asian countries tend to have positive trend of renewable energy consumption. however, its shares to total consumption of final energy are relatively stagnant after its gradual declines from 2000 to 2006. sudaryanto the impact of natural gas demand on renewable energy development: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 84 figure 2 renewable energy consumption in selected east asian countries source: bp statistical reviews (2015) and world bank (2015) figure 3 renewable energy consumption in selected southeast asian countries source: bp statistical reviews (2015) and world bank (2015) from the graph, it can be seen that renewable energy is less preferable in east asian countries as its shares to total final energy consumption are relatively low, ranging from 3% to 17% in 2014. it is probably due to intermittent and inconsistent characteristics of wind and solar which makes them difficult to control. indicated from the graph, in southeast asia (the selected countries) have similar pattern to that of east asia as shown by positive trend in renewable energy consumption in figure 3. in terms of its shares to total final energy consumption, renewable energy seems to be more favorable to use in southeast asia rather than east asia. in indonesia, the renewable energy shares in total energy consumption reach up to 40%, while its shares are more than 20% in thailand. however, similar to east asia, the trend of renewable energy shares is relatively stagnant and does not change substantially. such consumption pattern indicates that significant investments in renewable energy are required. a study from irena and ace in 2016 asserts that usd 290 billion of total investment in renewable energy capacity is essential to achieve the target of securing 23% of primary energy from renewable sources by 2025 in southeast asia. the study suggests sudaryanto the impact of natural gas demand on renewable energy development: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 85 that the southeast asian countries should invest around usd 27 billion per year to achieve the recommended amount. instead of utilizing existing government plans, investments from fossil fuels can be redirected and more mobilization of the fund will be required. hence, investment in renewable energy needs to be scaled up, particularly by selecting appropriate financial instruments. efficiency thus becomes a key to choose suitable financial instruments to support investment in renewable energy. the objective should be to use any instruments that bring the largest amount of private financing for the smallest amount of public funds. also, instruments must be selected by taking into account the capabilities of local agencies and local financial markets. conclusion the first evidence shows result suggesting that there is a significant correlation between natural gas and renewable energy consumption. the relationship between both variables indicated there is a slight stronger correlation in southeast asia with coefficient of 0.964 than in east asia with 0.959. nevertheless, these statistical figures do not imply that more consumption of natural gas causes higher share of renewable energy consumption in total energy demand, or otherwise. since correlation does not necessarily mean causation. a rise in natural gas consumption by will drive up the consumption for renewable energy in both regions. in contrast, the increase in economic growth would increase the portion of renewable energy in east asia and oppositely in southeast asia. the second result estimated that 1% increase in gdp per capita will lower the renewable energy consumption by 0.406% on average in all samples. positive result indicated in the previous studies conducted by sadorsky (2009) apergis and payne (2010) which revealed positive impact on renewable energy consumption in emerging markets. this difference due to various reasons, such as differences in sample countries, methodology, and timeperiod. although the previous studies conducted with bigger sample, this study employed the recent data. the third result is on the trend of renewable energy consumption in both east and southeast asia. the pattern exposed that southeast asia has a higher consumption percentage than east asia in period 2000 to 2014. although the consumption in southeast asia is higher, it shows that malaysia and indonesia consumption is slightly sloping down while thailand is steadily sloping upward. in this respect, thailand has implemented fit earlier in 2007 than malaysia in 2011 and indonesia in 2014. this may have caused the development of renewable energy in thailand more eager than malaysia and indonesia. regardless, the growth enhancing and energy policies should varies in accordance to their own characteristics (dominant resources, major sectors, population). natural gas consumption is expected to continuously increase and is still largely used in asia. with the contribution from renewable energy, both energy can feed the demand for electricity. a set of recommendations are constructed to enhance the speed of renewable energy development: natural gas and renewable energy are not mutually exclusive but rather complementary in many respects. employing renewable energy project for natural sudaryanto the impact of natural gas demand on renewable energy development: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 86 gas producers could bring benefits since both natural gas and renewable energy could produce electricity. this could be attained by collaboration of expert from both natural gas and renewable energy and consider the important elements such as: technology, economy, environment, energy quality and socio-political. enhance the collaboration between private stakeholders and public sectors by sharing information across countries relating technologies, potential resources and most importantly the financing and investment strategies in order to develop the renewable resources. proactive in promoting renewable energy policies such as fit and rps in order to attract investors for electricity installation generated from renewable energy. the benefits may promote the expansion of renewable energy development. the characteristic of fit and rps may varies in each countries. designing effective renewable energy in asia requires a good understanding of the relationship between gdp and renewable energy consumption. in relation to the mentioned result, policy makers could imply attractive rate for pv 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(2015). the world bank data. online. retrieved from: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.pcap.cd https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.03.067 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2007.11.007 https://doi.org/10.1016/s1755-0084(09)70234-0 https://doi.org/10.1067/mno.2000.104901 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2006.05.021 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2009.05.003 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2008.03.035 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2009.12.030 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2009.12.030 https://doi.org/10.1016/s0957-1787(99)00008-9 https://doi.org/10.1016/s0957-1787(99)00008-9 https://www.ucsusa.org/clean-energy/renewable-energy/barriers-to-renewable-energy%23.xb4sj1x7tiv https://www.ucsusa.org/clean-energy/renewable-energy/barriers-to-renewable-energy%23.xb4sj1x7tiv https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.pcap.cd jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 22 nomor 2, oktober 2021 article type: research paper the determinants of the value of mahr in muslim societies: evidence from the indonesian family life surveys dian friantoro1 and akhmad akbar susamto1,2 abstract: this paper aims to analyze the factors that determine the value of mahr in muslim societies. the analysis is based on an ordinary least squares (ols) regression with pooled cross-section data from the last three waves of the indonesian family life surveys (ifls). the main finding is that socioeconomic status in the forms of groom’s ownership of assets and education level matters most for the value of mahr. this finding holds for regression with full sample as well as subsamples, i.e. couples whose groom is javanese, couples whose groom is nonjavanese, couples whose bride is javanese and couples whose bride is nonjavanese. socioeconomic status in the form of bride’s education level also matters for the value of mahr with some exceptions. the other finding is that perceived probability of divorce as represented by differences in the socioeconomic status of a marrying couple do not have a significant effect on the value of mahr. the effect of physical appearances in the form of bride’s height is at best not robust and subject to the sample or subsample included. these findings can be useful as a reference to make marriage decisions in the future or to evaluate the ongoing practices for possible reforms. keywords: mahr; marriage; muslim; ifls jel classification: j12; n30 introduction mahr –the handing of money or other kind of properties from a groom to a bride– is a legal condition of marriage in islam, at least as agreed by most muslim scholars. there remain different views on whether a marriage without a mahr is valid, but it is clear that the mahr is obligatory based on the primary sources of islam (the quran and the sunnah) (maghniyyah, 1997; but & muhametov, 2013; siddiqui, 1995; wani, 2001). despite this imposition, there were no specific guidelines on how much the value of mahr should be. it is only mentioned that a proper value of mahr is one that is affordable and not burdensome. to cite the words of the prophet muhammad, "the best of mahr is the least one (or the most affordable one)” (as narrated by abu dawud and al-hakim, see e.g. saheeh al-jaami’, 3279). affiliation: 1 graduate school, universitas gadjah mada, special region of yogyakarta, indonesia 2 department of economics, faculty of economics and business, universitas gadjah mada, special region of yogyakarta, indonesia *correspondence: akhmad.susamto@ugm.ac.id this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v22i2.11918 citation: friantoro, d., & susamto, a.a. (2021). the determinants of the value of mahr in muslim societies: evidence from the indonesian family life surveys. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 22(2), 323338. article history received: 08 jun 2021 revised: 20 sep 2021 accepted: 31 oct 2021 https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?user=wvxidgwaaaaj&hl=en https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?user=ayjrivyaaaaj&hl=en http://www.pasca.ugm.ac.id/v3.0/ http://www.pasca.ugm.ac.id/v3.0/ http://www.pasca.ugm.ac.id/v3.0/ https://economics.feb.ugm.ac.id/ https://economics.feb.ugm.ac.id/ https://economics.feb.ugm.ac.id/ https://economics.feb.ugm.ac.id/ mailto:akhmad.susamto@ugm.ac.id http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/11918 https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v22i1.11918&domain=pdf friantoro & susamto the determinants of the value of mahr in muslim societies: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 324 in the absence of such specific guidelines, muslim scholars have come with different opinions about the value of mahr. for example, interpreting one of the ayah in the quran, an nisa’: 20, (alu syaikh et al., 2018) put an emphasis on the permissibility of awarding a big amount of mahr. commenting on the same ayah in the quran, (as-siba’i, 1999) states that a mahr should be given in a valuable form as it symbolizes the highness of marriage. scholars of the hanafi school set the minimum amount of mahr at 10 silver dirhams (equivalent to 33.6 grams of silver or 4.8 grams of gold), while those of the maliki school limit the minimum value of mahr to 3 silver dirhams. to them, a mahr less than the minimum value is unacceptable, even if it was agreed upon. scholars of the shafii and hambali schools do not see any strong arguments to limit the minimum value of mahr and opt to leave the decision to grooms and brides (maghniyyah, 1997; but & muhametov, 2013). in practice, the value of mahr has varied significantly across different individuals and societies (afzal et al., 1973; aini, 2014; korson, 1968). history and regulation have, to some extent, played a role in the determination of the value of mahr (abd wakil & ahmad, 2017; azahari & ali, 2015). however, other factors may have also been relevant. for example, it has been found that the average value of mahr is higher in urban areas than in rural areas (habibi, 1997) and in high socioeconomic areas than in middle and low socioeconomic areas (afzal et al., 1973; korson, 1968). remarkably, despite the long historical practice of mahr in muslim society, there is only limited number of studies examining the value of mahr and its determinants (afzal et al., 1973; aini, 2014; habibi, 1997; korson, 1968; kurniawan, 2019). most of these studies are descriptive (habibi, 1997 and kurniawan, 2019, are perhaps an exception). the majority of the works in the past focus on the islamic rulings on mahr (azzam et al., 2011; danyal, 2015; ghazali, 2008; maghniyyah, 1997; rahman, 1970; ridha, 1975; siddiqui, 1995; syafqat, 1979). a number of works look at the legal rulings on mahr in certain countries (el alami & hinchcliffe, 1996; mehdi, 2001; wani, 2001), while several others discuss mahr from sociocultural or sociopolitical contexts (e.g. abd wakil & ahmad, 2017; azahari & ali, 2015; ishak, 1983; korson, 1968; mehdi, 2001; wynn, 2008; yassari, 2013). empirical analyses on mahr have been dominated by studies using anthropological methods to describe how mahr is practiced in a specific muslim society (moors, 1994; nurcahyono, 2020; sahay & sahay, 1996; tugby, 1959). it should be noted that the term mahr in islamic context is different from another term that is often mistakenly used as its english translation, dowry. mahr –sometimes also called mehr, mehir, mehrieh, mahriyeh, maskahwin or maskawin– is something that a bride is entitled to receive from her groom on marriage. mahr serves as a form of gifts to express love and affection. it also serves as a form of savings that can be used for a bride's own benefit, to help build her family or to provide herself with some degree of economic security in the event of future marital dissolution due to her husband’s death or divorce (azahari & ali, 2015; korson, 1968; ridha, 1975; singh, 2010). by contrast, dowry is money or other kind of properties that a bride and her family bring forth to the marriage. it is paid by a bride and her family to a groom and his family rather than the other way around. the term mahr is closer to the term dower in a sense that the direction of the payment is friantoro & susamto the determinants of the value of mahr in muslim societies: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 325 from a groom to a bride (habibi, 1997). however, mahr is obligatory and needs to be specified at the time of marriages (regardless of whether the payment is made immediately or deferred), while dower is optional and not paid until the death of the husband. the term mahr is also different from bride price. the later refers to money or other kind of properties paid by a groom and his family to the parents of a bride upon marriage (korson, 1968). rather than the bride herself, it is her family that is entitled to receive the payment. the current paper aims to analyze the factors that determine the value of mahr in the marriage of muslims. the question to be answered in this paper is whether the socioeconomic status of a groom and a bride, differences in the socioeconomic status of a groom and a bride, and the physical appearances of a marrying couple have a significant effect on the value of mahr. this paper focuses particularly on the case of muslims in indonesia. this paper extends the works by habibi (1997) which focuses on the case of marriages in iran and the work by kurniawan (2020) which focuses only on the case of marriages in eastern indonesia. within the empirical literature of mahr in general, this paper complements the previous works examining the value of mahr (afzal et al., 1973; aini, 2014; korson, 1968) or describing how mahr is practiced in a specific muslim society (moors, 1994; nurcahyono, 2020; sahay & sahay, 1996; tugby, 1959). theoretically, the determination of the value of mahr can be explained using the economic theory of price. the value of mahr can be seen as a price affected by the demand from a bride and the offer (i.e. the supply) that comes from a groom. to follow habibi (1997), the value of mahr can also be seen as a result of a prenuptial negotiation between the parental families of a marrying couple. the key assumption is that the value of mahr demanded by a bride’s family revolves around two concerns. first, perception of the risk of marital instability (i.e. the probability of divorce in the future). since mahr is expected to provide a bride with some degree of economic security in the event of marital dissolution (azahari & ali, 2015; korson, 1968; ridha, 1975; singh, 2010), the higher the perceived risk of marital instability, the higher is the value of mahr demanded. from a different point of view, the higher the value of mahr, the less likely is the husband to unilaterally ask for a divorce in the future. second, the view that mahr is a status symbol. since mahr represents status, the higher the socioeconomic status of a bride, the higher is the value of mahr demanded. going by the above assumption, habibi (1997) expects that from a bride's perspective, the value of mahr to be demanded is represented by the formula 𝑀𝑑 = (𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑢𝑠, 𝑃𝑏 ) where 𝑀𝑑 is the value of mahr to be demanded, 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑢𝑠 is the socioeconomic status of the bride and 𝑃𝑏 is the probability of future divorce as perceived by the bride’s family. friantoro & susamto the determinants of the value of mahr in muslim societies: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 326 from a groom’s perspective, it is also assumed by habibi (1997) that the value of mahr revolves around the concerns on marital stability and the importance of mahr as a status symbol. in general, the higher the probability of divorce in the future, the lower is the value of mahr to be offered. the idea is that the groom wishes to reduce his material losses from future marital dissolution settlement. with respect to socioeconomic status, the groom considers both his own economic status and the socioeconomic status of his bride. for him and his family, the value of mahr to be offered is therefore represented by the formula 𝑀𝑠 = 𝑀𝑠(𝑏𝑟𝑖𝑑𝑒′𝑠 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑢𝑠, 𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑜𝑚′𝑠 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑢𝑠, 𝑃𝑔) where 𝑀𝑠 is the value of mahr to be offered, 𝑏𝑟𝑖𝑑𝑒′𝑠 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑢𝑠 is the socioeconomic status of the bride, 𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑜𝑚′𝑠 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑢𝑠 is the socioeconomic status of the groom, and 𝑃𝑔 is the probability of future divorce as perceived by the groom’s family. theoretically, agreements on the value of mahr take place only if the value demanded by a bride’s family is lower than the value offered by a groom’s family. in other words, agreements on the value of mahr can occur only if 𝑀𝑑 < 𝑀 < 𝑀𝑠 (3) where 𝑀 is the value of mahr agreed by the parental families of a groom and a bride. based on his model, habibi (1997) comes to a hypothesis that the determinants of the value of mahr include three categories of socioeconomic variables, namely variables that affect the value of mahr demanded, variables that affect the value of mahr offered, and variables that affect the perceived probability of divorce in the future. socioeconomic variables which affect the value of mahr demanded by a bride’s family may include ownership of assets, income, employment status, education level, age and ethnicity. the same variables may also affect the value of mahr offered by the family of a groom. the effects that ownership of assets and income have on the value of mahr are likely positive (anderson, 2000; murat, 2013). the effect of employment status is likely also positive (dasog, 1998), similar with the effect of education level (ashraf et al., 2018; chowdhury, 2008; dalmia & lawrence, 2005; lowes & nunn, 2017). the higher the level of education of a groom or a bride, the higher is the value of mahr. the effect of age on the value of mahr is ambiguous (chowdhury, 2008; dalmia & lawrence, 2005). likewise, the effect that ethnicity has on the value of mahr is ambiguous. ethnicity can have a positive or negative relationship, depending on the details of each ethnic (anderson, 2000; chowdhury, 2008). empirically, it is not easy to measure the perceived probability of divorce in the future. habibi (1997) uses kinship and geographic proximity between parental families as a proxy for such perceived probability. the idea is that the closer kinship and geographic proximity between a marrying couple’s parental families, the lower is the risk of marital instability friantoro & susamto the determinants of the value of mahr in muslim societies: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 327 and the perceived probability of divorce in the future. in the current paper, rather than kinship and geographic proximity between parental families, it is differences in the socioeconomic status of a marrying couple that are used. research method to analyze the factors that determine the value of mahr in muslim societies, this paper uses an ordinary least squares (ols) regression with pooled cross-section data. the data are taken from the last three waves of the indonesian family life surveys (ifls) that were conducted in the years 1999-2000, 2007-2008 and 2014-2015. these surveys as a whole represent around 83 percent of the indonesian population and include more than 30 thousand individuals who live in 13 out of 34 provinces of the country (strauss et al., 2016; strauss et al., 2004, strauss et al., 2009). the unit of analysis in this paper is groom-and-bride couples. to be included in the sample, the couples must be muslim (at least formally) and getting married for the first time in the year of surveys or in the year preceding the surveys. these criteria help reduce potential ambiguities due to differences in the contextual gist of mahr across different religions or across first, second, third and fourth marriages. the variable to be explained in this paper refers to the natural logarithm of the value of mahr deflated by the consumer price index (cpi). it originates from the answers given by male respondents (i.e. grooms) to the question, “what was the value of the mahr of your current/most recent marriage at the time of the marriage?” in the ifls’ questionnaires. in line with the theoretical exposition in the previous section, the main explanatory variables in this paper consist of the socioeconomic status of a groom and a bride and differences in the socioeconomic status of a groom and a bride. in addition, the explanatory variables in this paper include the physical appearances of a marrying couple, assuming that physical attractiveness matter for the value of mahr. the socioeconomic status of a groom and a bride include ownership of assets, income, employment status, level of education, age and ethnicity. ownership of assets is defined as the total value of assets in rupiah, while income is defined as the total rupiah generated over the past year. both asset ownership and income are deflated by the cpi and transformed into their natural logarithm form. due to the prevalence of missing values, only asset ownership and income that belong to a groom are included in the analysis. asset ownership and income that belong to a bride are excluded from the analysis. employment status is represented by a dummy variable, taking the value 1 for employed and 0 otherwise. level of education is defined as the number of years spent by a groom or a bride in formal education. age refers to the age of a groom and a bride at the time of marriage. ethnicity is represented by a dummy for jawa, taking the value 1 if a groom or a bride is of javanese ethnicity and 0 otherwise. differences in the socioeconomic status of a groom and bride include education difference, age difference and ethnic difference. education difference is measured as the years spent in formal education by a groom minus the years spent in formal education by a bride. age difference is measured as the age of a groom minus the friantoro & susamto the determinants of the value of mahr in muslim societies: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 328 age of a bride. ethnic difference is represented by a dummy variable, whose value equals 1 if a groom-and-bride couple is of different ethnic and 0 otherwise. physical appearances include a measure of height and a dummy for body proportionality. the dummy for body proportionality is based on the concept of body mass index (bmi) –an index of weight-forheight introduced by the world health organization (who). the dummy for body proportionality is valued 1 if a groom or a bride is normal and 0 otherwise (i.e. underweight, overweight or obesity). to take into account the effect of the years of surveys (and, thus, also the years of marriage), a few dummies for marriage years are included in the analysis. to avoid perfect collinearity, the dummy for year 1999 is left out and treated as a reference category. the regression equation is provided by: 𝑙𝑛(𝑌𝑖 ) = 𝛽0 + ∑ 𝛽 𝑗 𝑋𝑖 𝑗 𝐽 𝑗=1 + ∑ 𝛽𝑘 𝑍𝑖 𝑘 𝐾 𝑘=1 + ∑ 𝛽𝑞 𝑃𝑖 𝑞 𝑄 𝑞=1 + ∑ 𝛽𝑟 𝐷𝑖 𝑟 𝑅 𝑟=1 + 𝜀𝑖 where 𝑙𝑛(𝑌𝑖 ) denotes the natural logarithm of cpi-deflated value of mahr, 𝑋1 denotes a vector of the socioeconomic status of a groom and a bride, 𝑍𝑖 denotes a vector of differences in the socioeconomic status of a groom and a bride, 𝑃𝑖 denotes a vector of the physical appearances of a groom and a bride and 𝑌𝑖 denotes a vector of marriage year dummies. the alphabet 𝜀𝑖 denotes error terms. estimations are carried out for regression with full sample and regression with subsamples. the later consist of regression with a subsample of couples whose groom belongs to javanese ethnicity, regression with a subsample of couples whose groom belongs to non-javanese ethnicity, regression with a subsample of couples whose bride belongs to javanese ethnicity and regression with a subsample of couples whose bride belongs to non-javanese ethnicity. result and discussion table 1 reports the descriptive statistics. the (cpi deflated) value of mahr is very widely distributed, with an average of idr 2,025,900 and a standard deviation of idr 5,306,741. preliminary evaluation indicates that the difference in the employment status of a groom and a bride is highly correlated with one or more of the other explanatory variables. this variable is therefore excluded from further analysis. table 2 reports the variance inflation factors (vif) and the tolerance values of the main explanatory variables after such exclusion. it can be seen that no vif value exceeds 5.00 and no tolerance value is less than 0.10, implying the absence of any collinearity issues. friantoro & susamto the determinants of the value of mahr in muslim societies: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 329 table 1 descriptive statistics mean standard dev. minimum maximum (1) (2) (3) (4) mahr_original value in rupiah 2,025,900 5,306,741 11,880 72,050,000 mahr_value in natural log 13.111 1.713 9.383 18.093 groom_ownership of assets 15.140 1.515 9.952 20.294 groom_income 15.704 1.143 9.424 18.270 groom_employment status 0.941 0.237 0.000 1.000 groom_education level 10.421 3.407 0.000 18.000 groom_age 25.941 4.150 15.000 40.000 groom_javanese 0.459 0.499 0.000 1.000 groom_sundanese 0.125 0.331 0.000 1.000 groom_betawi 0.055 0.228 0.000 1.000 groom_body proportionality 1.018 0.645 0.000 3.000 groom_height 164.041 5.935 142.500 184.300 bride_employment status 0.290 0.454 0.000 1.000 bride_education level 10.703 3.309 0.000 18.000 bride_age 22.770 4.140 15.000 39.000 bride_javanese 0.471 0.499 0.000 1.000 bride_sundanese 0.126 0.333 0.000 1.000 bride_betawi 0.044 0.206 0.000 1.000 bride_body proportionality 1.110 0.691 0.000 3.000 bride_height 151.686 5.324 125.300 170.500 difference in employment status 0.664 0.473 0.000 1.000 difference in education level 2.107 2.183 0.000 13.000 difference in age 3.908 3.212 0.000 20.000 difference in ethnicity 0.156 0.363 0.000 1.000 table 2 vif and tolerance values vif values tolerance values (1) (2) groom_ownership of assets 1.330 0.754 groom_income 1.360 0.738 groom_employment status 1.030 0.968 groom_education level 1.720 0.583 groom_age 4.180 0.239 groom_javanese 4.260 0.235 groom_sundanese 3.110 0.321 groom_betawi 2.450 0.407 groom_body proportionality 1.080 0.928 groom_height 1.150 0.868 bride_employment status 1.110 0.900 bride_education level 1.880 0.532 bride_age 3.160 0.316 bride_javanese 4.190 0.239 bride_sundanese 3.100 0.323 bride_betawi 2.370 0.422 bride_body proportionality 1.080 0.925 bride_height 1.070 0.935 difference in education level 1.090 0.918 difference in employment status a) difference in age 3.070 0.326 difference in ethnicity 1.100 0.911 note: a) difference in employment status is excluded from the analysis due to possible collinearity. the values reported are vif and tolerance values computed after such exclusion. friantoro & susamto the determinants of the value of mahr in muslim societies: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 330 basic regression results table 3 reports the results from the ols regression with full sample. table 3 results from regression with full sample full sample (1) (2) (3) (4) groom_ownership of assets 0.187*** 0.183*** 0.182*** 0.178*** (0.040) (0.040) (0.041) (0.040) groom_income -0.030 -0.033 -0.039 -0.041 (0.055) (0.056) (0.055) (0.056) groom_employment status -0.039 -0.027 -0.028 -0.017 (0.239) (0.234) (0.240) (0.236) groom_education level 0.090*** 0.086*** 0.089*** 0.085*** (0.019) (0.020) (0.020) (0.020) groom_age 0.003 -0.013 0.000 -0.017 (0.016) (0.025) (0.016) (0.025) groom_javanese 0.128 0.140 0.113 0.123 (0.194) (0.198) (0.193) (0.198) groom_sundanese 0.528** 0.518** 0.510** 0.500** (0.220) (0.222) (0.221) (0.223) groom_betawi 1.102*** 1.035*** 1.130*** 1.067*** (0.280) (0.282) (0.281) (0.282) groom_body proportionality 0.090 0.095 0.091 0.096 (0.082) (0.083) (0.082) (0.083) groom_height -0.007 -0.007 -0.009 -0.009 (0.009) (0.009) (0.009) (0.009) bride_employment status 0.108 0.104 0.096 0.092 (0.114) (0.114) (0.114) (0.115) bride_education level 0.060*** 0.059*** 0.057*** 0.057*** (0.021) (0.022) (0.021) (0.022) bride_age 0.006 0.020 0.008 0.022 (0.017) (0.023) (0.017) (0.023) bride_javanese -0.455** -0.460** -0.463** -0.468** (0.191) (0.195) (0.191) (0.195) bride_sundanese -0.286 -0.305 -0.276 -0.295 (0.228) (0.230) (0.230) (0.231) bride_betawi -0.177 -0.138 -0.227 -0.191 (0.318) (0.314) (0.318) (0.315) bride_body proportionality 0.064 0.060 (0.075) (0.075) bride_height 0.023** 0.023** (0.010) (0.010) difference in education level -0.028 -0.029 (0.024) (0.024) difference in age 0.024 0.025 (0.029) (0.028) difference in ethnicity 0.183 0.168 (0.139) (0.139) n-observations 925 925 925 925 r-squared 0.217 0.221 0.223 0.226 note: the explained variable is the natural logarithm of the value of mahr. each regression includes a constant and year of marriage dummies. the values in parentheses are heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors. *, ** and *** indicates significance at the 10, 5 or 1 percent level. friantoro & susamto the determinants of the value of mahr in muslim societies: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 331 in column 1, the regression includes a constant, the socioeconomic status of a groom and a bride, and year of marriage dummies. in column 2, differences in the socioeconomic status of each groom-and-bride couple are added into the regression. in column 3, measures of physical appearances instead of differences in the socioeconomic status of a marrying couple are included in the regression. in column 4, the regression includes all of the explanatory variables together. irrespective of the explanatory variables included, the coefficients of groom’s ownership of assets and groom’s education level are positive and significant at the 1 percent level. the coefficient of bride’s education level is also positive and significant at the 1 percent level, signifying the importance of such variable for the value of mahr. the coefficients of groom’s income, groom’s and bride’s employment status, and groom’s and bride’s age are not statistically significant. the coefficients of the dummy for sundanese groom and the dummy for betawi groom are both positive and significant at least at the 5 percent level. by contrast, the coefficient of the dummy for javanese bride is significantly negative at the 5 percent level. the effects that differences in the socioeconomic status of a marrying couple have on the value of mahr are statistically negligible. none of the coefficients of difference in education level, difference in age and difference in ethnicity are significant. physical appearances in the form of bride’s height have a positive and significant effect on the value of mahr. physical appearances in the form of groom’s height, groom’s body proportionality dan bride’s body proportionality do, however, not seem to be important for the value of mahr as their coefficients are not statistically significant. table 4 reports the results from the ols regression with subsamples of couples whose groom belongs to javanese ethnicity and couples whose groom belongs to non-javanese ethnicity. in columns 1 and 3, the regression includes a constant, the socioeconomic status of a groom and a bride, measures of physical appearances of a groom and a bride, and year of marriage dummies. in columns 2 and 4, differences in the socioeconomic status of each groom-and-bride couple are added into the regression, allowing the natural logarithm of the value of mahr to be regressed on all of the explanatory variables together. the coefficients of groom’s ownership of assets, groom’s education level, and bride’s education level are positive and significant at least at the 10 percent level. the coefficients of the dummy for sundanese groom and the dummy for betawi groom are also positive and significant in columns 3-4, implying the presence of a difference in the value of mahr paid by grooms across non-javanese ethnicities. the coefficient of the dummy for betawi bride is significantly positive in columns 1-2, but negative in columns 3-4. this infers that the effect of a bride’s ethnicity on the value of mahr depends on the whether her groom is of javanese or non-javanese ethnicity. the coefficient of bride’s height is positive and significant in the last columns, implying the importance of this variable for the value of mahr across the sample. friantoro & susamto the determinants of the value of mahr in muslim societies: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 332 table 4 results from regression with subsamples javanese groom non-javanese groom (1) (2) (3) (4) groom_ownership of assets 0.147*** 0.150*** 0.209*** 0.203*** (0.055) (0.056) (0.059) (0.059) groom_income 0.010 -0.004 -0.110 -0.100 (0.066) (0.068) (0.094) (0.094) groom_employment status -0.066 -0.067 0.026 0.056 (0.317) (0.313) (0.367) (0.348) groom_education level 0.084*** 0.075*** 0.089*** 0.093*** (0.026) (0.028) (0.029) (0.029) groom_age 0.020 0.052* -0.025 -0.115*** (0.021) (0.028) (0.024) (0.039) groom_sundanese 0.661*** 0.692*** (0.235) (0.236) groom_betawi 1.455*** 1.488*** (0.291) (0.296) groom_body proportionality -0.092 -0.099 0.252** 0.246** (0.117) (0.118) (0.116) (0.115) groom_height -0.004 -0.004 -0.014 -0.017 (0.012) (0.012) (0.013) (0.013) bride_employment status 0.234 0.214 -0.019 -0.031 (0.152) (0.150) (0.175) (0.176) bride_education level 0.054* 0.050* 0.071** 0.085** (0.028) (0.029) (0.031) (0.033) bride_age -0.007 -0.025 0.023 0.089** (0.020) (0.023) (0.027) (0.035) bride_javanese -0.118 -0.113 -0.617** -0.612** (0.297) (0.297) (0.251) (0.256) bride_sundanese 0.042 -0.008 -0.419* -0.425* (0.651) (0.642) (0.249) (0.249) bride_betawi 1.704*** 1.700*** -0.615* -0.657* (0.350) (0.348) (0.348) (0.350) bride_body proportionality 0.106 0.111 0.010 0.015 (0.095) (0.096) (0.113) (0.111) bride_height -0.008 -0.007 0.042*** 0.043*** (0.014) (0.014) (0.014) (0.014) difference in education level -0.057* 0.000 (0.033) (0.037) difference in age -0.045 0.119*** (0.031) (0.043) n-observations 425 425 500 500 r-squared 0.209 0.218 0.244 0.256 note: the explained variable is the natural logarithm of the value of mahr. each regression includes a constant and year of marriage dummies. the values in parentheses are heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors. *, ** and *** indicates significance at the 10, 5 or 1 percent level. table 5 reports the results from the ols regression with subsamples of couples whose bride is javanese and couples whose bride is non-javanese. in columns 1 and 3, again, the regression includes a constant, the socioeconomic status of a groom and a bride, the physical appearances of a groom and a bride, and year of marriage dummies. in columns 2 and 4, the differences in the socioeconomic status of a groom and a bride are also included in the regression. the coefficients of groom’s ownership of assets and groom’s education level are again positive and significant. the coefficient of bride’s education level friantoro & susamto the determinants of the value of mahr in muslim societies: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 333 is positive, but statistically significant only in columns 3-4. holding other variables constant, bride’s education level matters for the value of mahr only when the bride is of non-javanese ethnicity. the coefficient of the dummy for betawi groom is significantly positive. the coefficient of bride’s height is again positive and significant in columns 3-4, implying the importance of this variable across couples with a non-javanese bride. table 5 results from regression with subsamples javanese bride non-javanese bride (1) (2) (3) (4) groom_ownership of assets 0.111** 0.114** 0.245*** 0.236*** (0.053) (0.053) (0.060) (0.060) groom_income -0.001 -0.014 -0.100 -0.086 (0.064) (0.066) (0.096) (0.096) groom_employment status -0.079 -0.065 0.090 0.142 (0.295) (0.290) (0.424) (0.394) groom_education level 0.095*** 0.085*** 0.082*** 0.087*** (0.026) (0.027) (0.029) (0.029) groom_age 0.015 0.046* -0.014 -0.107** (0.020) (0.027) (0.024) (0.042) groom_javanese 0.324 0.340 -0.005 -0.005 (0.324) (0.320) (0.280) (0.282) groom_sundanese 0.724* 0.699* 0.430 0.440 (0.423) (0.420) (0.269) (0.272) groom_betawi 1.642*** 1.648*** 1.007*** 0.989*** (0.625) (0.601) (0.293) (0.296) groom_body proportionality 0.039 0.028 0.138 0.131 (0.118) (0.119) (0.116) (0.115) groom_height -0.003 -0.001 -0.013 -0.015 (0.012) (0.011) (0.013) (0.013) bride_employment status 0.097 0.071 0.047 0.036 (0.145) (0.144) (0.181) (0.181) bride_education level 0.032 0.026 0.091*** 0.105*** (0.027) (0.029) (0.032) (0.034) bride_age 0.010 -0.007 0.003 0.073* (0.020) (0.022) (0.028) (0.038) bride_sundanese -0.181 -0.163 (0.261) (0.264) bride_betawi -0.112 -0.109 (0.323) (0.324) bride_body proportionality 0.123 0.133 0.006 0.013 (0.096) (0.097) (0.116) (0.115) bride_height 0.001 0.001 0.037*** 0.039*** (0.013) (0.013) (0.014) (0.014) difference in education level -0.068** 0.004 (0.033) (0.037) difference in age -0.043 0.125*** (0.030) (0.046) n-observations 436 436 489 489 r-squared 0.193 0.204 0.250 0.263 note: the explained variable is the natural logarithm of the value of mahr. each regression includes a constant and year of marriage dummies. the values in parentheses are heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors. *, ** and *** indicates significance at the 10, 5 or 1 percent level. friantoro & susamto the determinants of the value of mahr in muslim societies: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 334 results from robustness tests the above estimations include groom’s income, groom’s employment status and bride’s employment status whose coefficients never turn out to be statistically significant. this may cause model overfitting and mislead the results. to deal with such concern, estimations in table 3 are repeated without the aforementioned three variables. table 6 results from robustness tests full sample (1) (2) (3) (4) groom_ownership of assets 0.183*** 0.176*** 0.179*** 0.173*** (0.040) (0.040) (0.040) (0.040) groom_education level 0.090*** 0.089*** 0.086*** 0.085*** (0.019) (0.020) (0.020) (0.020) groom_age 0.002 -0.001 -0.015 -0.019 (0.016) (0.016) (0.025) (0.025) groom_javanese 0.134 0.119 0.145 0.128 (0.193) (0.192) (0.197) (0.196) groom_sundanese 0.531** 0.510** 0.520** 0.500** (0.217) (0.217) (0.220) (0.220) groom_betawi 1.101*** 1.123*** 1.033*** 1.060*** (0.278) (0.278) (0.280) (0.280) groom_body proportionality 0.086 0.086 0.090 0.090 (0.081) (0.080) (0.081) (0.081) groom_height -0.008 -0.010 -0.007 -0.009 (0.009) (0.009) (0.009) (0.009) bride_education level 0.060*** 0.057*** 0.059*** 0.057*** (0.021) (0.021) (0.021) (0.022) bride_age 0.008 0.010 0.022 0.024 (0.017) (0.017) (0.023) (0.023) bride_javanese -0.453** -0.461** -0.458** -0.466** (0.190) (0.190) (0.194) (0.193) bride_sundanese -0.286 -0.276 -0.305 -0.295 (0.226) (0.227) (0.228) (0.228) bride_betawi -0.193 -0.244 -0.156 -0.208 (0.314) (0.314) (0.310) (0.311) bride_body proportionality 0.064 0.060 (0.074) (0.075) bride_height 0.023** 0.023** (0.010) (0.010) difference in education level -0.028 -0.029 (0.024) (0.024) difference in age 0.025 0.026 (0.029) (0.028) difference in ethnicity 0.180 0.163 (0.137) (0.136) n-observations 925 925 925 925 r-squared 0.216 0.222 0.220 0.225 note: the explained variable is the natural logarithm of the value of mahr. each regression includes a constant and year of marriage dummies. the values in parentheses are heteroskedasticity-robust standard errors. *, ** and *** indicates significance at the 10, 5 or 1 percent level. friantoro & susamto the determinants of the value of mahr in muslim societies: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 335 the results are reported in table 6. the coefficients of groom’s ownership of assets, groom’s education level, and bride’s education level remain statistically significant. the coefficients of the dummy for sundanese groom, the dummy for betawi groom and the dummy for javanese bride also remain significant. the coefficient of bride’s height does not qualitatively change and remain significantly positive at the 5 percent level. further tests suggest that the results in table 3-5 are robust. due to space restrictions, the details of these tests are not presented here, but available from the authors upon request. further discussions the fact that groom’s ownership of assets, groom’s level of education and bride’s level of education have a significant effect on the value of mahr supports the hypothesis that the socioeconomic status of a groom matters (habibi, 1997). this is also in line with previous findings that ownership of assets and level of education affect the value of dowry in pakistan and india (anderson, 2000; dalmia & lawrence, 2005; murat, 2013). the fact that groom’s income, groom’s and bride’s employment status, groom’s and bride’s age, and groom’s and bride’s ethnicity do not have a robust significant effect on the value mahr, however, qualifies that the relationship between socioeconomic status and the value of mahr is not the same for all forms of socioeconomic status. in contrast to the theoretical prediction (habibi, 1997), perceived probability of divorce – as represented by differences in in education level, age and ethnicity of a marrying couple– does not have a significant effect on the value of mahr. perhaps, it is due to overoptimism among parental families of the marrying couple regarding the stability of their marriage, making the perceived probability of divorce slender. finally, the facts that body proportionality does not have a significant effect on the value of mahr and that the effect of bride’s height is not robust to sample or subsample composition lend no support to the hypothesis that physical appearances matter. this is consistent with previous finding (habibi, 1997) that body proportionality and height are not empirically important for the value of mahr. conclusion this paper analyzes the factors that determine the value of mahr in the marriage of muslims. it uses ordinary least squares (ols) regressions covering a sample of 951 groomand-bride couples from the last three waves of the indonesian family life surveys (ifls). the main finding is that socioeconomic status in the forms of groom’s ownership of assets and groom’s education level matter most for the value of mahr. this holds for all regression scenarios, i.e. regressions with full sample, with a subsample of couples whose groom belongs to javanese ethnicity, with a subsample of couples whose groom belongs to non-javanese ethnicity, with a subsample of couples whose bride belongs to javanese friantoro & susamto the determinants of the value of mahr in muslim societies: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 336 ethnicity and with a subsample of couples whose bride belongs to non-javanese ethnicity. socioeconomic status in the form of bride’s education level matters, with exceptions for regression that includes couples whose bride is javanese. socioeconomic status in the forms of groom’s income, groom’s employment status and bride’s employment status do not have a significant effect on the value mahr. perceived risk of divorce as represented by differences in the socioeconomic status of a marrying couple do not have a significant effect on the value of mahr. the effect of physical appearances in the form of body proportionality do not have a significant effect on the value of mahr, while the effect of physical appearances in the form of bride’s height is at best not robust and subject to the sample or subsample included. the finding in this paper can be useful as a reference to help 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(2013). understanding and use of islamic family law rules in german courts: the example of the mahr. in applying sharia in the west-facts, fears and the future of islamic rules on family relations in the west, leiden university press. http://www.jstor.org/stable/43951783 jesp | jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan article type: research paper social fund and the hierarchy of muhammadiyah orphanages financial independency yuli utami1, azmi najmimudin azhari2, tjiptohadi sawarjuwono1, and abu azam alhadi1 abstract: this study aims to analyze the muhammadiyah social fund and the hierarchy of financial independence of seven its orphanages in the province of daerah istimewa yogyakarta. this study utilizes primary data which is obtained from interview, questionnaire, document studies, and observations; and analyzed using analytical hierarchy process and swot approaches. it finds that the orphanages have the same type of fund resources which collected from the donors, namely, permanent donor (the top priority), incidental, social service and government, permanent business, and seasonal business. meanwhile, the orphanage funds were allocated to the foster children’s skill improvement, foster children’s tuition fee, orphanages development fund, orphanages activities, kitchen support/daily needs, orphanage’s saving/investment and foster children’s saving/investment. four of out seven orphanage funds prior allocation went to the foster children’s skill improvement, while the rest, to the orphanage development, foster children’s saving/investment, and orphanage’s saving/investment. it indicates the dependency of the orphanages financial sources toward the donors, or lacks their own investment, despite some are better-off by starting their ownbusiness. these finding could be benefited for the orphanages in managing the social funds for investment and mapping the potential as well as the development of the orphanage financial independence in their future strategies. keywords: orphanage; financial independence; muhammadiyah; social fund; ahp. jel classification: l3; l31; j13; d64 introduction financial funding for the orphanage is remained major problems faced by most of the developing countries, including indonesia. a number of social institutions and philanthropy activities have been introduced and helped the government in many countries to solve the social problem of orphans and children displaced. however, there is no relation between the need and the resources in the case of most of the orphanages. this makes the progress of some institutions slow when compared with others. well affiliation: 1 universitas airlangga, surabaya, indonesia. 2 universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta, yogyakarta, indonesia. *correspondence: yuli.utami-2015@pasca.unair.ac.id this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.20.2.5024 citation: utami, y., azhari, a. n., sawarjuwono, t., & alhadi, a. a. (2019). social fund and the hierarchy of muhammadiyah orphanages financial independency. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 20(2), 190206. article history received: 25 august 2019 accepted: 27 october 2019 mailto:yuli.utami-2015@pasca.unair.ac.id http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/6953 utami, azhari, sawarjuwono, & alhadi social fund and the hierarchy of muhammadiyah orphanages financial independency jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 191 established institutions are ensured of the sustained flow of resources to them. but recent and "poor" institutions continue to be in a state of uncertainty concerning resources. problems of supporting network and financial management are also dominating the social reality in running the orphanage. non-sustainability of revenue sources is the root of this problem. their revenue has a high element of uncertainty and unpredictability. there is a general increase in the expenditure on all items due to the price increase of commodities. the increasing proportion of unproductive expenditure on items like transport, construction works, and non-specified others are also un-neglect-able. these situations encourage muhammadiyah, as one of the islamic movement that has initiate orphanage institutions all around indonesia, to utilize all domestic resources to overcome the problem of humanities and economy. the existence of theology al-ma’un as muhammadiyah's foundation in serving the community in three areas of healing (health), schooling (education) and feeding (social security and philanthropy) are in this regard finds its significance (qodir, 2008). by establishing an orphanage on waqf land, orphans, and displaced children will get a decent shelter, affections, food, and access to education freely (abror, 2012; rizki, 2018). however, one crucial issue that must be further discussed in evaluating program successes and failures is the concept of funding for the orphanage itself. funding from muhammadiyah and donors is judged by meeting needs alone. on the contrary, the problem arises because the source of funding for the orphanage is very dependent on various sources of social grants that are not fixed so it tends to face financial difficulties if the budget expenditure is greater than the source of incoming funds. therefore, the presence of economic independence status for the orphanage that accommodates sustainability revenue source is highly needed (silvia, 2018). regarding this issue, this paper would like to analyze the economic potential funding-sources hierarchy that can be built by the orphanages muhammadiyah-yogyakarta, that are never been research before. hence, the research useful to measure their financial independence and predict their strength future plans strategy. this paper comprises five sections with an introduction as the first one. the theoretical framework will be discussed in the second section, followed by research methodology in the third section. the fourth section will elaborate on the findings and analysis while the last section concludes the paper. this paper is a pioneer study undertaking an empirical investigation on the hierarchy of the financial independence of orphanages. therefore, the theory will use in this study will depend on the observation and the way its interpretation. muhammadiyah and social fund muhammadiyah is known as an islamic renewal organization with a modern pattern. in practice, muhammadiyah believes in the al-qur'an and al-sunnah rasulullah as its source. utami, azhari, sawarjuwono, & alhadi social fund and the hierarchy of muhammadiyah orphanages financial independency jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 192 the interpretation of the al-quran and al-sunnah is revealed at the level of praxis, and translated into a real movement. the rampant charity of muhammadiyah, aum (amal usaha muhammadiyah), is a manifestation of the belief of the muhammadiyah founding father kh. ahmad dahlan from quran surah al ma’un (verse 1-7). his interpretation was later known as al-ma'un theology (susanto, 2106). the virtue of sponsoring orphans encourages the muhammadiyah to provide real action by establishing various businesses, better known as the muhammadiyah business charity (aum) (muhammadiyah, 2016), which is interpreted into three main activities of schooling, healing and feeding (qodir, 2008). in other words, transforming a religious understanding of mere sacred doctrines and less socially sounds becomes cooperative for human liberation. the education obtained at the orphanage at least provides enough stock for orphans to live independently in the future so that it can reduce the burden of the government and the unemployment rate, as well as the number of alliterations. the central office muhammadiyah, through the assembly of social services (mps) and muhammadiyah zakah, infaq, shadaqah institution (lazismu) pp muhammadiyah launched the idea for strengthening children and family empowerment in 400 muhammadiyah-aisiyah institutions-all around indonesia (rizki, 2012). mps and lazismu pp muhammadiyah established a child center indonesia in order to revitalize the role of orphanages and efforts to fulfill the fundamental rights of children. the strategic plan of care pattern is given priority to the cci projections; therefore, it is not only a sheltered place or residential children but as a provision and preparation place that will be very useful for foster children (huttman & redmond, 1992). the program also pays attention to other aspects such as social services, economy, and children's education and family benefits that their children are in the orphanage. the programs also have undertaken lead to the strengthening of the family of the orphanage in the hope of being economically self-sufficient and developing an orphanage in order the children have full rights as if to be with his own family. in addition to focusing on the development of an orphanage, the program will also change the paradigm of parenting care to family-based care. instead of focusing on the child alone, but it actually rather providing assistance to vulnerable families onto improving economic capacity and parenting skills ecological system theory, power dependency theory, ahp and swot analysis developed by psychologist urie bronfenbrenner, ecological systems theory explains how different types of environmental systems influence human development, i.e., the (1) micro-, (2) meso-, (3) exo-, and (4) macro systems. these levels range from smaller, proximal settings in which individuals directly interact to larger, distal parameters that indirectly influence development. the various levels within ecological systems theory are often presented graphically as a series of four systems nested around a focal individual like a set of concentric circles (andrea & mahoney, 2017). these levels will describe reality and provide full information in social research. utami, azhari, sawarjuwono, & alhadi social fund and the hierarchy of muhammadiyah orphanages financial independency jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 193 power is the key concept to understand the empowerment process. the purpose of power is to prevent the participation of other groups in the decision-making process and also to obtain passive group approval. power is an integral part of social interaction. power is a feature that is inseparable from social life. this is always part of the relationship, and signs that can be seen even at the level of micro-interaction. community development needs to pay attention to equality, conflict, and power relations or if not, and the success rate is low. after the failure of modernization, the theory the dependency theory came. the dependency theory in principle describes the existence of a relationship between unequal countries, especially between developed (central) and peripheral (non-developed) countries. there was an understanding of balance and equality, which in turn forms empowerment in community participation known as the theory of justice (suparno, 2017). for example, the "power-dependency" theory tells us that donors (donors) gain power by giving money and goods to people who cannot reciprocate. this gives the idea that non-profit organizations (ngos) should not receive funds from only one donor if they want to be independent (free). the analytical hierarchy process (ahp) is a decision-aiding method which has received increasing attention in the literature and application since its development by saaty (harker, 1987). analytic hierarchy process (ahp) is a model used to facilitate decision making developed by thomas l. saaty. decision model described in the form of a multifactor or complex multi-criteria become a hierarchy (yüksel, 2012). the hierarchy is defined as a representation of a complex problem within a multilevel structure. analytic hierarchy process is one of several analytical tools or methodologies in the decisionmaking process (dona, 2017). included are rational and intuitive factors for determining the best option. in determining the choice should be based on the criteria that have been considered and grouped according to hierarchy. figure 1 conceptual framework source: author utami, azhari, sawarjuwono, & alhadi social fund and the hierarchy of muhammadiyah orphanages financial independency jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 194 swot is a classical strategic planning tool that helps so much to find a way to assess the best strategy can be implemented. this tool helps planners think realistic about the achievement they can get and where they should focus on. swot analysis is an analytical technique that can be done by an organization in deciding a decision to achieve rapid growth in the future. the process involves the identification of strengths and weakness of the organization, the opportunities, and threats to the market in which the organization is engaged. swot analysis explains everything that can and cannot be done in business, as well as its potential opportunities and threats (ommani, 2011). research method this study is mixed method research utilizes primary data which is obtained from an indepth interview, questionnaire, document studies, and observations. qualitative research is an activity that puts the observer in social reality (cresswell, 2007). it consists of a set of interpretive, material practices that make the world visible. these practices transform the world into representable social reality. it means that qualitative researchers study things in their natural setting, attempting to make sense of, or interpret the phenomena in a term of the meanings of people. the qualitative researcher should empathize and identify the people they study in order to understand and to know deeply how those people see all those things (taylor, bogdan, & devault, 2016). the technique to maintain data validity will take some steps as follows: extension of observation, increased and lastly, do a triangulation technique (lexy, 2009). several problems in management sometimes have contained qualitative and subjective criteria. the stakeholders can be influenced by other one decision, making it important to combine the criteria in decision-making. thomas saaty introduced a tool in 1970’s i.e. the analytic hierarchy process (ahp) that can incorporate multiple quantitative and qualitative criteria in a meaningful and rational way (teehankee, 2009). assessment or weighting in the hierarchy aims to compare the scores on each criterion to achieve the goal. therefore, it will be obtained weighting the level of importance of each of the criteria to achieve the goals set. the pairwise comparison appraisal procedure in ahp refers to the scoring score developed by thomas l saaty (saaty, 2001). analytical hierarchy process in this research uses data obtained from seven respondents i.e., panti asuhan muhammadiyah wates, panti asuhan muhammadiyah tuksono, panti asuhan muhammadiyah nanggulan, panti asuhan muhammadiyah seyegan, panti asuhan yatim putri aisyiyah, panti asuhan ahmad sudjari, and panti asuhan yatim dhuafa muhammadiyah prambanan at d.i. yogyakarta province. the data obtained is processed initially before input into expert choice 11 software. the first phase analysis is comparing the priority scale in the criteria to determine either the priority in the allocation of funds used by the orphanage or fund resource priority they got from the donors. utami, azhari, sawarjuwono, & alhadi social fund and the hierarchy of muhammadiyah orphanages financial independency jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 195 table 1 the fundamental scale of absolute numbers intensity of importance definition explanation 1 equal importance two activities contribute equally to the objective 2 weak or slight 3 moderate importance experience and judgement slightly favour one activity over other 4 moderate plus 5 strong importance experience and judgement stongly favour one activity over other 6 strong plus 7 very strong or demonstrated importance an activity is favoured very strongly over another, its dominance demonstrated in practice 8 very, very strong 9 extreme importance the evidence favouring one activity over another is of the biggest possible order of affirmation reciprocals of above if activity i has one of the above non-zero numbers assigned to it when compared with activity j, then j has the reciprocal value when compared with i a reasonable assumption 1.1 – 1.9 if the activities are very close may be difficult to assign the best value but when compared with other contrasting activities the size of the small numbers would not noticcable, yet they can still indicate the relative importance of the activities this study also uses a swot analysis that provides weighting assessments from the summary of internal factor analysis (ifas) and the summary of external factor analysis (efas). ifas and efas are used to produce the swot matrix (wahyuningtias, sudarmiatin, indrawati, 2016). the procedure that must be followed in this approach is first, identifying internal factors (interviewing orphans, teachers, supervisors, and also the top management of the orphanage). secondly, is identifying external factors, namely by interviewing the nearest community, muhammadiyah management, customers (orphans), as well as the government and donors. this data is used to identify opportunities and threats. third, is gathering data on internal and external factors by weighing and ranking the strengths and weaknesses of each orphanage, so that we can determine the total score of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. fourth, analyze these data using the swot matrix diagram and plotted in the first quadrant (aggressive strategy), second quadrant (conservative strategy), third quadrant (defense strategy), and fourth quadrant (competitive strategy). utami, azhari, sawarjuwono, & alhadi social fund and the hierarchy of muhammadiyah orphanages financial independency jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 196 table 2 rating guidance for ifas and efas factors rating meaning strength and opportunity 1 outstanding 2 good 3 fair 4 poor threat and weakness -1 not so good -2 fairly bad -3 warning -4 danger result and discussion sources of funds became one of the important factors in the development of orphanages. sources of funds can be from anyone or party who has good intentions to help the orphanage in providing a decent life to foster children, at least to provide for all the needs of foster children even though it is not yet feasible. funds obtained can be sourced from permanent or incidental donors. not only that, the role of social services and the government is also very much needed in providing financial assistance to orphanages. orphanages that already have a business, whether permanent or seasonal, it will be a source of funds that can be expected every day. fund allocation priority table 3 indicates that 4 of out 7 orphanages prioritized the use of funds to improve foster skills. those orphanages are panti asuhan ahmad sudjari, panti asuhan muhamadiyah tuksono, panti asuhan yatim putri aisiyah, and panti asuhan yatim dhuafa prambanan. it seems that foster children’s future is the main target priority of some orphanages. the orphanage provides the foster children to go to school, and all the tuition fee will be covered by the orphanage. what foster children to do are only study and utilize the facilities to support their future living opportunity. the reason orphanages focus on foster children’s skill improvement is for their better preparation when they no longer occupy in the orphanage as delivered by 1st ki, in following statement: “q: how does important foster children’s skill improvement?” “a: according to us, it is very important, especially for their future. they can use it after they graduate the school for their living”. (1st ki, july 2018). the orphanage muhammadiyahwates allocates funds for orphanage development as its main priority. by having several building as multipurpose building that can be rented for weddings, meetings and others, they can generate more incomes and have better and sustainable flows of resource. the donors are advice the orphanage to build a multipurpose building in order to get additional fund for fulfilling their daily needs. the construction was built in the beginning of 2015 and launched in the end of 2017. utami, azhari, sawarjuwono, & alhadi social fund and the hierarchy of muhammadiyah orphanages financial independency jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 197 table 3 orphanages fund allocation priority no orphanages the criteria of priority foster childre n’s skill improv ement foster children’s tuition fee orphana ges develop ment fund orphan ages activiti es kitchen support (consumpti on) / daily needs orphana ge’s saving / investme nt foster children’s saving / investment 1 panti asuhan muhammadiya h wates 5 3 1 4 2 6 7 2 panti asuhan muhammadiya h tuksono 1 5 6 4 7 3 2 3 panti asuhan muhammadiya h nanggulan 3 7 4 5 6 2 1 4 panti asuhan muhammadiya h seyegan 7 6 4 5 3 1 2 5 panti asuhan ahmad sudjari 1 6 2 7 5 3 4 6 panti asuhan yatim putri aisyah 1 3 4 2 7 6 5 7 panti asuhan yatim dhuafa prambanan 1 6 5 2 7 3 4 source: author ”…..this building just launched last year (end of 2017) and use it as multipurpose building and we rent it. we got money to develop orphanage…..mmm…and all are due to the donors advices”. (4th ki, may 2018) panti asuhan muhammadiyah wates is also undertaking renovations the female dormitories this year. it is expected to be completed by the end of the year. it is such the daily costs will be covered by the income generated from the businesses created by the orphanage. following statement is the reason why panti asuhan muhamadiyah wates allocates more funds for orphanage development as stated by the 4th ki in an interview a few months ago: “maintenance cost, rehabilitation cost, and other costs will not possibly and sufficient if we see our budget…. however, alhamdulillah, praises allah, we can fulfill the entire budget. the physical building and the children development cost are all fulfilled”. (4th ki, may 2018). orphanages fund resources priority the sources of funds became one of the important factors in orphanages development. sources of funds can be from anyone and any party who has good intentions to help the orphanage in providing a decent life of foster children, at least to provide for all the needs of foster children, even though it is not feasible yet. funds obtained can be the source came from permanent or incidental donors. the role of social services and the government is also very much needed in providing financial assistance to orphanages. utami, azhari, sawarjuwono, & alhadi social fund and the hierarchy of muhammadiyah orphanages financial independency jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 198 orphanages that already have a business, whether permanent or seasonal, will be a source of funds that expected to cover daily need. table 4 orphanages fund resources priority note: bt (permanent business), i (insidental donor), ssg (social service and government), pd (permanent donor), and sb (seasonal business). table 4 shows that every criterion or program carried out by an orphanage has a dominant source of funds. the criteria for foster children’s skill improvement are mostly funded by the permanent donor. it is happened in panti asuhan muhammadiyah prambanan, panti asuhan muhammadiyah tuksono, panti asuhan muhammadiyah wates, and pantiasuhan ahmad sudjari. permanent donors are still dominant as the foster children’s skill improvement funding source. though, the program funds sometimes also taken from incidental donors. foster children’s tuition fee in panti asuhan muhammadiyah wates and panti asuhan yatim dhuafa muhammadiyah prambanan were obtained mostly from the contribution of the permanent donor. sometimes, the donors in panti asuhan muhammadiyah wates were maintaining the budget plan and its purposes. on the other hand, panti asuhan muhammadiyah wates gets more dominant funds mostly from social service government agencies for foster children’s saving and investment. the social agency mandates the funds given specifically for foster children’s saving and other activities such as tuition fees, or others. this was mentioned by the 4th ki in the following interview: “government social service usually donates their fund for children saving investment or for special purposes for example tuition fee or school fee.” (4th ki, may 2018). the analytical hierarchy process analyzed that pantiasuhanmuhamadiyahtuksono is also mostly gets funding from the kulonprogo social government agency. however, the government aids (social government agency aids), will allocate for secondary supporting n o orphanages foster children’s skill improvement foster children’s tuition fee orphanages development fund orphanages activity kitchen support (consumption)/ daily needs orphanages saving/ investment foster children’s saving/ investment pd i s s g p b s b p d i s s g p b s b p d i s s g p b s b p d i s s g p b s b p d i s s g p b s b p d i s s g p b s b p d i s s g p b s b 1 panti asuhan muhammadiya h wates 1 2 3 4 5 1 3 2 5 4 2 1 3 4 5 1 3 2 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 3 2 1 4 5 3 2 1 4 5 2 panti asuhan muhammadiya h tuksono 4 5 1 3 2 2 3 5 1 4 3 5 1 4 2 4 5 3 2 1 1 5 4 3 2 2 5 4 3 1 4 5 3 2 1 3 panti asuhan muhammadiya h nanggulan 1 4 5 3 2 2 5 4 3 1 1 5 4 3 2 2 5 4 1 3 5 2 4 3 1 5 3 1 4 2 1 5 4 3 2 4 panti asuhan muhammadiya h seyegan 5 4 2 1 3 5 4 3 2 1 5 4 3 2 1 4 5 2 3 1 1 2 3 5 4 5 4 2 3 1 5 3 4 2 1 5 panti asuhan ahmad sudjari 1 5 4 3 2 1 4 5 3 2 3 5 4 2 1 4 5 2 1 3 5 3 4 1 2 4 5 2 1 3 3 5 4 1 2 6 panti asuhan yatim putri aisyah 1 5 4 2 3 2 5 4 1 3 2 4 5 1 3 2 5 3 1 4 2 3 4 1 2 2 5 3 1 4 5 2 3 1 4 7 panti asuhan yatim dhuafa prambanan 4 5 3 2 1 4 5 3 1 2 4 3 5 1 2 4 5 3 1 2 3 5 4 1 2 5 4 3 2 1 4 5 3 2 1 utami, azhari, sawarjuwono, & alhadi social fund and the hierarchy of muhammadiyah orphanages financial independency jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 199 school fee due to the limited amount contributed. it is as exposure by the 1st ki, the orphanage secretary: “social government agency aids usually allocate as schooling fee or to buy school stuff. in fact, the aids are annual aids from the government (social agency) for tuition fee. however, the amount will only enough for buying the schooling stuff, which around rp.1,000,000,per child. this amount will not cover all their current schooling cost. if they went to the elementary level in indonesia (sd & smp), they will not pay the tuition fee, but in high school level (sma) they have to. for those children went to the muhammadiyah school, they will get a tuition fee reduction. though, living in a same organization of muhammadiyah, we still have to contribute to the unit business of muhammadiyah. therefore, the tuition fee reduction will mean so much to us. the government school is also giving the reduction fee for the orphans through local government budget. if each of them got rp.1000k, the 900k will give to the orphan and the rest (100k) will send for the schooling operation.” (1st ki, may 2018). the dominant orphanages’ development fund of panti asuhan muhammadiyah tuksono mostly derived from the permanent donors and permanent businesses they have. the poor financial condition forced the staff and administrators of the orphanage work hard to raise funds since the first its opening. the 2006 earthquake have destroyed the pioneers building of the orphanage. since then, they work harder to collect the funds for renovation by sending proposals for funds to agencies, governments, and individual who has high social life. to cover the considerable cost of development, panti asuhan muhammadiyah tuksono is assisted by the business they run such lpg gas stations and refills of mineral water. the profits are used to cover the shortage of development costs and fulfill their daily needs. this was conveyed by the respondent (1st ki) in an interview a few months ago. here's his exposure: “…… slowly but sure, we collect several sources of fund to continue the renovations and build a new dormitory. if we have remained rice from zakahfitr which was not finish to consume within a month, we will sell it for revenue. it is use as renovation fund, which the process is still under construction. the aids come from local government, central and local persyarikatanmuhammadiyah (pp and pdm) and individual donors. to develop new dormitory, we proposed government local budget plan that allocate for social purposes.” (1st ki, may 2018) here is the statement given by the respondent relates to the business they are running in: “……praise to allah, we have been signing a collaboration business contract since 2015. we have lpg gas stations and refills of mineral water. the income still around rp.100,000 – rp.200,000 per month”.( 1st ki, may 2018). the basic need of the orphanage that may crucial to fulfill is the daily need such as food, cloth and shelter. the orphanage requires a higher cost for food and daily need due to the high number of children living in. the orphanage also should be given enough nutrition to utami, azhari, sawarjuwono, & alhadi social fund and the hierarchy of muhammadiyah orphanages financial independency jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 200 maintain their health and endurance. permanent or incidental donors are usually the biggest contributors to cover the cost of consumption. but there is also a social agency that explicitly specifies the donations given only used for consumption or feeding. it was happened in panti asuhan yatim dhuafa prambanan as the following statement by the respondent (3rd ki): “…..the donor divided into two, i.e. the permanent donor and incidental donor. the permanent donor is only the social government agency. their aids used to buy basic need such food.” (3rd ki,may 2108) the priority alternative in the orphanage development fund result (table 3) is actually cannot be accepted because of the inconsistency ratio that is higher than equal to 0.10. there might be several reasons that make it happened. it could be caused by the misunderstanding of the respondent toward the questionnaires, or they might answer the questionnaires in rush and etc. it is concluded based on the clarification of the respondent when the triangulation processed by the researcher. the most interesting from the finding of this research is that pp muhammadiyah did not give any regular donation officially to the orphanages’ institution after gave waqf land and building. it is because the orphanages should be independent financially and seek the fund source by themselves. there is no donation from muhammadiyah for the institution so far. but a lot of donations and aids gave personally by muhammadiyah members and unit businesses (aums) either as incidental donors or as permanent donors. strength, weakness, opportunity, threat (swot) the data obtained from interview,questionnaire, document studies, and observations will describe and analyze from internal factors side as well as external factors using swot analysis. it is intended to avoid any threat and to find a potential opportunity that useful for generating the orphanages’ income independently. table 5 matrix swot of panti asuhan muhammadiyah sayegan. internal factor external factor strength-s 1. foster children’s mentality throught direct devotion to society. 2. bow making training weakness-w 1. there is no long-term program 2. there is no business opportunity-o 1. circular letter to the society for giving donation so strategy work harder to get more funds (s2, o1) wo strategy run a business from the available potential (w2, o1) threat-t 1. there is no donation from pp muhammadiyah st strategy sell the bow made by foster children for additional fund (s2, o1) wt strategy make a business and ask for helping from pp muhammadiyah (w2, o1) utami, azhari, sawarjuwono, & alhadi social fund and the hierarchy of muhammadiyah orphanages financial independency jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 201 table 6 matrix swot of panti asuhan muhammadiyah putri aisyah internal factor external factor strength-s 1. good on organization 2. orphanage has a lot assets weakness-w 1. less of training for foster children 2. the staffs are bussy with their other activities opportunity-o 1. has multipurpose building which can be rented 2. orphanages have pay mart and car rent so strategy expand the business to property sector. it will not too hard to do because of orphanages is well structured (s1,2, o2) wo strategy build a building for foster children training (w1, o2) threat-t 1. variation of culture, environment se strategy build a strong character to foster children (s1, t1) wt strategy try to spare the time for caring and giving attention to foster children (w2, t1) panti asuhan sayegan (table 5) has to work harder both to establish their own business and start-up the potential they had. on the contrary, panti asuhan muhammadiyah putri aisyah (table 6) will have no difficulties to find financial sources since they own some business which well-organized since it was built. however, it still needs to focus on the qualified human resource development and pay attention to the education quality of the orphans. panti asuhan muhammadiyah putri aisyah was build based on al-ma’un ethos. therefore, it set not only for feeding and taking-care the orphans but prepares their future financial need by providing the business as income sources. table 7 matrix swot of panti asuhan muhammadiyah prambanan internal factor external factor strength-s 1. innovation in fund rising 2. free course program (english, sawing, etc) weakness-w 1. lack of human resources as teachers and administrators opportunity-o 1. a strong orphanage alumni association so strategy the foster children are able to open a course to get additional fund and they could be a tour guide (s2, o1) wo strategy invite the aluni to become the caregiver or teacher in the orphanage (s1, o1) theath-t 1. pattern of parenting st strategy orphanages shuol make a program relates to parenting pattern or delegate the adult foster children to the parenting training (s2, o1) wt strategy maximize the human resource and train them on how the good care give is (w1, o1) utami, azhari, sawarjuwono, & alhadi social fund and the hierarchy of muhammadiyah orphanages financial independency jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 202 panti asuhan muhammadiyah prambanan (table 7) actually has a potential tourism business prospect in term of location and amount of qualified alumni. as urie bronfenbrenner proposed, it will benefit from both if was trained and managed properly due to the environmental systems automatically support them, i.e. the (1) micro-, (2) meso-, (3) exo-, and (4) macro systems. once they initiate their business (fitted to their strength) in a strategicand well known location, easy to them to be recognized by the public largely. it supports the finding of andrea & mahoney (2017) as a series of four systems nested around a focal individual like a set of concentric circles. so many prospects business they can run, such panti asuhan muhammadiyah tuksono (table 8) and panti asuhan naggulan (table 9), panti asuhan muhammadiyah wates table 10) and panti asuhan muhammadiyah sudjari (table 11) have to work harder to empower their skill and develop their human resources. they also have to have a good relationship to the macro-level (i.e. government and pp muhammadiyah) due to power is the key concept to understand their empowerment process. power can open their access to the business and industries. the macro power also concerns to empower the grass level to reduce their cost. therefore, it is important to inform the public about their strengths and weaknesses through any media. table 8 swot matrix of panti asuhan muhammadiyah tuksono internal factor external factor strength-s 1. leverage the opportunities that exist to establish a business 2. orphanages has creative ideas and a passionate board weakness-w 1. the geographical location is far from the city 2. the orphanages are not too familiar with the public 3. lack of human resources (officer) opportunity-o 1. have the business in the form of gas lpg bases of bright gas, gallon water refils, and cooperatives so strategy advance the business to online business system support by the creative ideas they have (s1,2, o1) wo strategy promote the business into social media and inform the exact location (w1,2,3, o1) theath-t 1. different foster children’s character st strategy sell the business item which is fit to the foster children character. it must be interesting and creative (s1,2, o1) wt strategy find another care giver to maintaine the foster children which have different character. so, orphanages will be helpful by the addition caregiver (w3, t1) utami, azhari, sawarjuwono, & alhadi social fund and the hierarchy of muhammadiyah orphanages financial independency jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 203 table 9 swot matrix of panti asuhan muhammadiyah nanggulan internal factor external factor strength-s 1. orphanages has an application to facilitate financial reporting 2. have sufficient and competent human resource on social welfare institution (lks) 3. a good development system by strengthening the institution’s 4. the inventor of financial application report weakness-w 1. the existence of rejection from the surrounding community in pioneering 2. some of human resources are still skill less opportunity-o 1. one of the foster children passed the putm selection 2. support from pp muhammadiyah in the development of financial paging application 3. get a accreditation so strategy orphanages should make the longterm program to maximize the strength and opportunity they have (s1,2,3,4, i1,2,3) wt strategy orphanages should ask pp muhammadiyah theath-t christianization that can lead to the transation of trust st strategy orphanage is require to block the christianization through invite the society and held the islamic study (s2, 3, t1) wt strategy strengthen the care giver’s skill and people’s trust (w2, t1) table 10 swot matrix of panti asuhan muhammadiyah sudjari internal factor external factor strength-s 1. prioritize on alquran learning weakness-w 1. less of tenaga kerja sosial (tks) either the quantity, skill or experience 2. the facility is still not too good 3. less of training for foster children opportunity-o 1. maximize the natural resources around orphanage to make handcraft so strategy delegate the foster children to join the tilawah competition and sell the handcraft to get additional fund (s1, o1) wt strategy train the foster children to make something new from the available natural resources (w3, o1) theath-t 1. the outsider children are not interesting to go to school st strategy make a program that can influence the outsider to go to school. the program can be “belajar alquran keliling” (s1, t1) wt strategy invite the outsider to make handcraft. so that, they can be maintained easily (w3, t1) utami, azhari, sawarjuwono, & alhadi social fund and the hierarchy of muhammadiyah orphanages financial independency jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 204 table 11 swot matrix of panti asuhan muhammadiyah wates internal factor external factor strength-s 1. support from surrounding communities 2. accepted gracefully on the establishment of the orphanage 3. the burning spirit og the board 4. the number of boards is quite a lot weakness-w 1. lack of training for the foster children which is provided by the orphanage opportunity-o 1. optimalization of productive waqf land with the construction of multipurpose building so strategy the orphanage can get easy fund from the multipurpose building through rent the building. it will run easily because of supported by the burning spirit of the board (s3, o1) wt strategy the orphanages should provide and give the training on waqf optimazitation for foster children and cargiver (w1, o1) theath-t 1. difficult to get funding st strategy the orphanage has to utilize the number of boards they have to get funding. in addition, orphanages can cooperate with the society to ease the fund seeking (s4, t1) wt strategy the orphanage has to create more training and invite the expert on fund raising aspect (w1, t1) conclusion observation and research that have been done are about self-reliance hierarchy of the muhammadiyah orphanage for several months, which the result can be concluded as follows: 1). muhammadiyah orphanages around d.i.yogyakarta province have the same priority funding sources which describe as follows: permanent donors, incidental donors, social and government service, durable businesses, and seasonal businesses. 2). the funds also were allocated for the same purposes which the priority as the foster children’s skill improvement, the foster children's tuition fee, orphanages development fund, orphanage activities, kitchen support (consumption)/daily needs, orphanage’s savings/investment and foster children’s saving and investment. 3). the finding indicates that four out of seven orphanages funds for the foster children’s skill improvement. the rest is used for the orphanage development fund, followed by the purpose of foster children’s saving/investing. panti asuhan muhammadiyah tuksono, panti asuhan yatim dhuafa prambanan, and panti asuhan ahmad sudjari spend the funds mostly for the foster children’s skill improvement. while the panti asuhan muhammadiyah wates’s main priority is the orphanages development fund. panti asuhan muhaammadiyah nanggulan’s main priority is the foster children’s saving/investment. 4). the top prior donor that suggested by any programs and criteria in the analysis is the permanent donor. utami, azhari, sawarjuwono, & alhadi social fund and the hierarchy of muhammadiyah orphanages financial independency jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 205 recommendation this research suggests that the orphanage’s potential should be maximized as high as possible. the existing potential can be developed into a profitable and sustainable business. therefore, the orphanages are able to create welfare for foster children. the orphanages are required to be strongly independent from various aspects, mostly in the financial aspect. the dependent of foster children to the orphanage can be reduced by creating the independence environment and empowering them with skill and financial management training that can be started in the early stage. a specification skill is needed by each orphanage among skill they have. it means the orphanage can develop the prior potential they have and execute it as a representing business unit to support the orphanage economy. there are some topics research areas that potential to investigate by further researcher 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disetujui: februari 2015 abstract: this study aims to determine the preferences of individuals to choose traditional medicine in indonesia. the data used in this study obtained from the indonesian family live survey (ifls) and it’s a longitudinal survey with a panel data study. the use of ifls data is to obtain recent information on variables to be tested. the subject in this study is the individual in the household aged 15 years old or more in 13 provinces survey members. research variables used in this research are the owner of health insurance, age, region of residence (urban), income, distance to health facilities, the number of medicine post and education of household members ifls. data processing was performed using probit regression method the results showed that age, region of residence and the existence of postal medicine influence to the individual probability to choose traditional medicine. the probability value for each variable showed that individuals in household that over age, living in the village and living in the region of postal medicine have a higher educated have a higher probability high to choose traditional medicine. keywords: traditional medicine; indonesia family live survey; preferences; probit jel classification: d12, m20 abstrak: penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui preferensi individu untuk memilih pengobatan tradisional di indonesia. data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini bersumber dari data indonesia family live survey (ifls) dan merupakan survei longitudinal dengan studi data panel. penggunaan data ifls diharapkan dapat memberikan informasi terikini dan lebih luas mengenai variabel-variabel yang akan diuji di dalam model. subjek penelitian ini adalah individu dalam rumah tangga berumur 15 tahun atau lebih pada 13 provinsi anggota survei. variabel penelitian yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini yaitu kepemilikan asuransi kesehatan, usia, pendapatan, wilayah tempat tinggal, jarak menuju fasilitas kesehatan, jumlah pos obat dan pendidikan individu dalam rumah tangga ifls. pengolahan data dilakukan dengan menggunakan metode regresi probit. hasil yang diperoleh menunjukkan bahwa usia, wilayah tempat tinggal dan keberadaan pos obat masing-masing berpengaruh terhadap probabilitas individu untuk memilih pengobatan tradisional. sedangkan nilai probabilitas pada setiap variabel menunjukkan bahwa individu dalam rumah tangga yang berusia lanjut, tinggal di desa dan tinggal di wilayah yang terdapat pos obat, memiliki probabilitas yang lebih tinggi untuk memilih pengobatan tradisional. kata kunci: pengobatan tradisional; indonesia family live survey; prefrerensi; probit klasifikasi jel: d12, m20 pendahuluan kesehatan merupakan aspek yang penting dalam kehidupan yang dapat merefleksikan tinggi rendahnya standar hidup yang dimiliki seorang individu. kesehatan dianggap penting karena dengan sehat maka memudahkan individu untuk melakukan aktivitas kesehariannya. cara yang dapat digunakan untuk memperoleh status sehat individu dapat dilakukan dengan preferensi individu terhadap pengobatan ... (herika jennifer, endah saptutyningsih) 27 mengkonsumsi barang dan jasa kesehatan ataupun dengan melakukan kegiatan yang dianggap dapat menyehatkan. jika status kesehatan tidak terpenuhi maka dapat menyebabkan individu mengalami keluhan kesehatan yang dapat menimbulkan sakit sehingga akan berdampak pada terganggunya aktifitas. sakit berhubungan dengan perilaku pencarian obat untuk memperoleh kembali status sehat yang dapat dilakukan dengan berbagai cara misalnya dengan mencari pengobatan medis ke dokter, bidan, dan tenaga medis lainnya. selain dengan pengobatan medis perilaku pencarian pengobatan terhadap kejadian penyakit dapat juga dilakukan dengan cara pengobatan sendiri yaitu dengan membeli obat di warung dengan tetap memperhatikan petunjuk pemakaian atau dengan cara pengobatan tradisional yang masih eksis pada individu dalam rumah tangga. perilaku pencarian pengobatan melalui pengobatan tradisional yang masih banyak dilakukan oleh individu dalam rumah tangga dapat dilihat dalam tabel 1. fakta yang menarik adalah sekitar 80 persen dari tanaman obat yang ada di dunia tumbuh di indonesia, sehingga bahan yang dibutuhkan untuk pengobatan yang berasal dari alam ini dapat dengan mudah di temui di sekitar kita. rustam, dkk (2007) menyatakan bahwa indonesia memiliki keanekaragaman hayati yang luar biasa dengan jumlah sekitar 40.000 spesies, dari seluruh jumlah spesies tersebut sekitar 1300 di antaranya digunakan sebagai obat tradisional. berdasarkan data yang diperoleh dari bpom (badan pengawasan obat dan makanan) hanya sebanyak 283 spesies tanaman obat yang baru diregistrasi untuk penggunaan obat tradisional/jamu dan hanya 13 spesies yang baru dibudidayakan yang dapat dilihat pada tabel 2 (lampiran). jumlah spesies tanaman obat yang melimpah di indonesia membuat penggunaan pengobatan tradisional oleh individu dalam rumah tangga telah dilakukan secara turun-temurun dari nenek moyang hingga sekarang, kebiasaan ini telah menjadi warisan budaya bangsa indonesia. pengobatan tradisional masih digunakan oleh individu dalam rumah tangga dikarenakan beberapa faktor yang menunjang yaitu pengalaman yang sebelumnya didapat oleh orang tua yang telah turun temurun digunakan, tidak merepotkan atau lebih praktis karena bahan yang digunakan dapat langsung diperoleh dari alam yang ada di sekitar rumah, pengobatan tradisional tidak mengeluarkan biaya, serta manfaat yang dirasakan yaitu ramuan tradisional yang dikonsumsi beserta bantuan pengobatan dari dukun dapat mrngurangi rasa sakit (gazali, dkk, 2011). pengobatan tradisional diterapkan karena alasan mudah, murah dan manjur serta sesuai dengan kerangka berpikir individu dalam rumah tangga terkait dengan konsep keseimbangan dan pelestariannya perlu tetap diupayakan karena telah berakar lama pada individu dalam rumah tangga. penyakit yang paling sering dialami oleh individu dalam rumah tangga adalah masuk angin yang dapat dianalogikan sebagai gangguan tubuh akibat unsur angin yang tidak lancar. prinsip yang terdapat di dalam pengobatan kerokan seperti oposisi biner: panas x dingin; longgar x kencang; angin masuk x angin keluar; ringan x berat; serta tercapainya keseimbangan merupakan dasar pengobatan tradisional. angin yang terdapat dalam tubuh dapat dikeluarkan lewat kentut atau sendawa (triratnawati, 2010). kristina, dkk (2007) menyatakan bahwa jenis kelamin, usia, pendidikan, status pekerjaan serta pendapatan individu berhubungan dengan tabel 1. persentase penduduk yang mempunyai keluhan kesehatan dan penggunaan obat tradisional no tahun pengguna obat menurut jenis kelamin total laki-laki (persen) perempuan (persen) laki-laki + perempuan (persen) 1. 2009 24,05 24,55 24,24 2. 2010 27,38 27,77 27,57 3. 2011 23,52 23,74 23,63 4. 2012 24,16 24,49 24,33 sumber: www.bps.ac.id jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015: 26-41 28 perilaku pengobatan sendiri sedangkan lokasi (desa atau kota) serta jarak tempat tinggal dengan fasilitas kesehatan tidak memiliki hubungan yang signifikan terhadap perilaku pengobatan sendiri. metode yang dipakai dalam studi sebelumnya memiliki beberapa kelemahan di antaranya kurang dapat dihandalkan untuk mengidentifikasi dan mengukur efek yang ditimbulkan dalam model cross-section maupun time-series dan tidak memberikan hasil yang kompleks terutama dalam studi yang mempelajari dan menguji model perilaku (behavior models). studi mengenai status kesehatan dalam pengukurannya lebih sesuai diolah dengan menggunakan data indonesia family life survey (ifls) karena data ini akan memberikan ukuranukuran yang luas mengenai status kesehatan individu termasuk langkah-langkah yang dilaporkan langsung mengenai status kesehatan secara umum, pengalaman morbiditas, dan penilaian secara fisik misalnya tinggi, berat badan, lingkar kepala, hemoglobin dan lainnya, selain itu data ifls juga dapat memberikan gambaran yang jauh lebih banyak daripada status kesehatan yang biasa tersedia dalam survei rumah tangga, misalnya ifls dapat memberikan data yang dapat digunakan untuk mengeksplorasi hubungan antara status sosial ekonomi dengan berbagai susunan kesehatan. setyawati dan meridian (2010) dalam studi yang menggunakan data indonesia family life survey (ifls) yang menyimpulkan bahwa keberadaan modal sosial pada individu dalam rumah tangga ifls mempunyai hubungan yang signifikan dengan pemanfaatan dukun beranak di mana pendidikan merupakan satu-satunya faktor yang signifikan terhadap pemilihan persalinan dengan menggunakan dukun. hidayat (2008) dengan analisis data indonesia family life survei (ifls) menunjukkan bahwa peserta asuransi kesehatan terbukti memiliki probabilitas kunjungan yang lebih tinggi dalam menggunakan pelayanan rawat jalan daripada non-peserta. selain itu, dalam studi supadmi (2013) menyatakan bahwa perilaku pasien geriatric dalam melakukan swamedikasi (pengobatan sendiri) adalah kepemilikan asuransi kesehatan di mana studi ini menunjukkan bahwa jumlah pasien yang tidak memiliki asuransi kesehatan lebih banyak melakukan swamedikasi dibandingkan dengan pasien yang memiliki asuransi kesehatan artinya hasil analisis menunjukkan kepemilikan asuransi kesehatan memiliki hubungan yang signifikan dengan perilaku pengobatan. purnamaningrum (2010) telah melakukan studi tentang perilaku masyarakat untuk mendapatkan pelayanan kesehatan menyatakan bahwa sikap memiliki hubungan yang signifikan antara sikap dengan perilaku mengobati. pengetahuan tidak memiliki hubungan yang signifikan antara pengetahuan individu dengan perilaku mengobati. pendidikan tidak mempunyai hubungan yang signifikan dengan perilaku mengobati. pendapatan tidak memiliki hubungan yang signifikan dengan perilaku mengobati. terdapat hubungan antara asuransi kesehatan dengan perilaku mengobati. rahayu (2012) dalam studinya dengan menggunakan cross section menyatakan bahwa hasil studinya menunjukkan bahwa persentase individu yang memilih pengobatan tradisional di wilayah kerja puskesmas muara siberut sebanyak 63,54 persen dengan beberapa variabel yaitu pengetahuan, ada hubungan antara pengetahuan dengan pemilihan pengobatan. sikap memiliki hubungan yang signifikan dengan pemilihan pengobatan. pekerjaan tidak mempunyai hubungan dengan pemilihan pengobatan akan tetapi mereka tetap memilih pengobatan tradisional sesuai teori masyarakat yang memiliki pekerjaan dan penghasilan yang pas-pasan akan memilih pengobatan tradisional. pendidikan memiliki hubungan yang signifikan dengan pemilihan pengobatan oleh individu. jarak tempat tinggal tidak memiliki hubungan yang signifikan dengan pemilihan obat. supardi, dkk. (2003) menyatakan bahwa penduduk yang berusia lanjut yaitu lebih dari 56 tahun untuk menggunkan obat tradisional lebih banyak 1,56 kali daripada penduduk yang bukan lanjut usia. supardi dan susyanty (2010) menyatakan bahwa: kelompok usia lanjut usia memiliki hubungan yang signifikan dengan penggunaan obat tradisional. terdapat hubungan yang signifikan antara jenis kelamin dan penggunaan obat tradisional. ada hubungan yang signifikan antara individu yang menikah dan penggunaan obat tradisional. terdapat hubungan signifikan antara individu yang berpendidikan rendah dan penggunaan obat tradisional. ada preferensi individu terhadap pengobatan ... (herika jennifer, endah saptutyningsih) 29 hubungan yang signifikan antara jenis pekerjaan individu dan penggunaan obat tradisional. ada hubungan yang signifikan antara tempat tinggal dan penggunaan obat tradisional. jenis keluhan memiliki hubungan antara individu yang mengeluh demam, batuk, pilek, diare dan penggunaan obat tradisional, tetapi tidak ada hubungan yang signifikan antara individu yang mengeluh sakit kepala dan penggunaan obat tradisional. supadmi (2013) menyatakan bahwa probabilitas pasien geriarti melakukan swamedikasi di kabupaten sleman memberikan hasil bahwa faktor yang berhubungan dengan perilaku pasien geriatric melakukan swamedikasi adalah kepemilikan asuransi kesehatan di mana studi ini menunjukkan bahwa jumlah pasien yang tidak memiliki asuransi kesehatan lebih banyak melakukan swamedikasi dibandingkan dengan pasien yang memiliki asuransi kesehatan artinya hasil analisis menunjukkan kepemilikan asuransi kesehatan memiliki hubungan yang signifikan dengan perilaku pengobatan. gaol (2013) menyatakan bahwa perilaku pencarian pengobatan oleh individu dalam rumah tangga dipengaruhi oleh jumlah dan jenis sarana pelayanan kesehatan yang tersedia di sekitarnya. oleh karena itu pada wilayah yang banyak tersedia sarana pelayanan kesehatan seperti puskesmas, rumah sakit pemerintah dan swasta, balai pengobatan serta praktek dokter, maka pilihan individu dalam rumah tangga semakin beragam untuk melakukan pencarian pengobatan. menurut andersen (1979) semakin banyak sarana dan jumlah tenaga kesehatan maka tingkat pemanfaatan pelayanan kesehatan suatu masyarakat akan semakin bertambah. tujuan dari studi ini adalah faktor yang signifikan terhadap preferensi untuk memilih berobat secara tradisional terutama pijat kerokan, okup/koop/bekam dan sejenisnya dan juga minum jamu atau obat tradisional sebagai pengobatan dibandingkan pengobatan medis. metode penelitian data jenis data yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah data sekunder yang diperoleh dari lembaga survei yaitu indonesia family life survey (ifls) berupa data longitudinal yang mencakup wilayah dari 13 provinsi di indonesia yaitu seluruh provinsi di jawa, bali, ntb, sulawesi selatan, kalimantan selatan, sumatera selatan, lampung, sumatera barat dan sumatera utara. survei data ifls pertama kali dilakukan pada tahun 1993 yang disebut dengan ifls-1, survei pada tahun 1997 disebut dengan ifls-2, dan survei tahun 2000 dan 2007 yang selanjutnya disebut sebagai ifls-3 dan ifls-4. subjek dalam studi ini adalah individu dalam rumah tangga berusia 15 tahun atau lebih yang merupakan individu dari studi indonesia family live survey (ifls) pada 13 provinsi anggota survei. data ifls yang akan digunakan dalam studi ini adalah ifls-4 tahun 2007 yang dikumpulkan pada akhir november 2007 dan berakhir pada bulan mei tahun 2008 untuk mengikuti 7.500 rumah tangga dan sekitar 312 komunitas dengan jumlah individu dalam rumah tangga sebanyak 39.000 individu yang merupakan kolaborasi dari rand (research and development), pusat untuk studi kependudukan dan kebijakan (pskk) universitas gajah mada dan survey meter. ifls-4 berisi data rumah tangga anggota ifls dan data fasilitas masyarakat. data indonesia family live survey (ifls) merupakan data longitudinal, namun karena data ifls yang digunakan dalam studi ini hanya ifls pada gelombang ke 4 maka data dalam studi ini dapat disebut dengan cross section data. alasan penggunaan data pada survei ifls-4 tahun 2007 karena: 1) penggunaan titik waktu pada tahun 2007 mencukupi kebutuhan data untuk analisis pengujian perubahan pada variabel yang diteliti pada sebuah rentang antar waktu. 2) kelompok data tersebut adalah gelombang survei (wave) yang terakhir dilakukan, sehingga diharapkan didapatkan informasi terkini pada variabel-variabel yang akan diuji dalam studi tersebut. adapun topik kuesioner yang digunakan dalam studi ini tampak dalam tabel 3. berdasarkan tabel 3 mengenai topik kuesioner dalam ifls, variabel independen yang digunakan dalam studi yaitu kepemilikan asuransi kesehatan yang merupakan kuesioner yang bersumber dari topik asuransi kesehatan yang bersumber dari buku 3b final. usia dan jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015: 26-41 30 wilayah tempat tinggal masing-masing merupakan kuesioner dengan topik rumah tangga dan asset individu yang terletak dalam buku k final. jarak menuju failitas kesehatan merupakan kuesioner dengan topik rumah tangga dan asset individu yang terletak dalam gabungan buku 3b dan buku k final. variabel keberadaan pos obat merupakan satu-satunya variabel yang bersumber dari data cf dengan topik kuesioner pengetahuan tentang penyediaan layanan kesehatan yang terletak dalam buku 1 final. sedangkan pendidikan serta pendapatan terdapat dalam buku 3a final yang bersumber dari kuesioner dengan topik penghasilan tenaga kerja dan sejarah kerja. pembentukan dan seleksi variabel pembentukan dan seleksi variabel dilakukan setelah pengumpulan variabel yang dibutuhkan di dalam buku ifls. setelah buku ifls ditentukan maka seleksi variabel dilakukan dengan memilih seksi-seksi yang didalamnya terdapat pertanyaan yang dapat mewakili variabel dependen maupun independen. adapun seksi kuesioner yang digunakan dalam studi ini disajikan dalam tabel 4. tabel 4 setelah seksi kuesioner dipilih selanjutnya pertanyaan yang dapat mewakili variabel yang diteliti juga dipilih untuk kemudian digunakan untuk pembentukan data set atau “do” untuk selanjutnya dilakukan pengolahan data. variabel kepemilikan terdapat dalam seksi ak (asuransi kesehatan); usia terdapat dalam seksi ar (daftar anggota rumah tangga); pendapatan terdapat dalam seksi tk (ketenagakerjaan); usia dan wilayah tempat tinggal samasama terletak dalam seksi ar; jarak menuju fasilitas kesehatan terletak dalam seksi sc (keterangan sampling dan wilayah pencacahan) dan seksi rj (rawat jalan). variabel keberadaan pos obat terdapat dalam seksi j (sejarah keberadaan fasilitas kesehatan); sedangkan pendidikan terdapat dalam kuesioner seksi dl (pendidikan). dependen variabel yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah pengobatan tradisional yang bersumber dari topik kuesioner yaitu self treatment yang masuk dalam seksi ps (pengobatan sendiri) yang di dalam buku ifls dibagi lagi menjadi beberapa jenis pengobatan, dapat dilihat pada tabel 5. berdasarkan tabel 5 mengenai seksi pengobatan sendiri terdapat beberapa dummy variabel yang menerangkan topik jenis pengobatan tabel 4. seksi kuesioner variabel seksi kuesioner pengobatan tradisional (traditional treatment) seksi ps kepemilikan asuransi kesehatan (health_insurance) seksi ak usia (age) seksi ar pendapatan (income) seksi tk wilayah tempat tinggal(urban) seksi ar jarak menuju fasilitas kesehatan (disfacility) seksi sc & rj keberadaan pos obat (posobat) seksi j pendidikan (years_educ) seksi dl sumber: www.surveymeter.org tabel 3. topik kuesioner ifls topik kuesioner buku ifls self treatment buku 3b final asuransi kesehatan (kepemilikan asuransi kesehatan) buku 3b final rumah tangga dan asset individu (usia, wilayah tempat tinggal, dan jarak menuju fasilitas kesehatan). buku k final rumah tangga dan asset individu (jarak menuju fasilitas kesehatan). buku 3b dan buku k final pengetahuan tentang penyediaan layanan kesehatan (keberadaan pos obat ) buku 1 final penghasilan tenaga kerja dan sejarah kerja (pendapatan, pendidikan) buku 3a final sumber: www.surveymeter.org preferensi individu terhadap pengobatan ... (herika jennifer, endah saptutyningsih) 31 sendiri. namun hanya dua jenis dummy yang dipakai untuk mewakili variabel dependen yang digunakan dalam studi ini yaitu dummy “minum jamu atau obat tradisional sebagai pengobatan; dan pijat, kerokan, oukup/koop/ bekam, dan sejenisnya. sedangkan untuk dummy pengobatan sendiri yang tidak digunakan dalam studi ini yaitu “minum obat modern yang dijual bebas (seperti bodrex, inza, paramex), memakai obat luar (seperti tetes mata, salep, koyo, parem, dan sejenisnya), dan minum vitamin/suplemen”. hal ini dilakukan dengan pertimbangan variabel yang dianalisis sangat tergantung kepada keberadaan dan kelengkapan data yang ada sehingga tidak semua variabel pengobatan sendiri digunakan dalam studi ini artinya hanya variabel dummy yang mewakili pengobatan tradisional saja yang dipilih dalam studi ini. definisi operasional variabel dependen dalam studi ini adalah pengobatan tradisional dengan asumsi pengobatan tradisional bertujuan untuk mengobati jenis keluahan penyakit ringan yang sering dialami masyarakat, seperti demam, nyeri, pusing, batuk, sakit maag, cacingan, flu, keluhan penyakit kulit dan lain-lain yang dibentuk dari dummy pengobatan sendiri yaitu “minum jamu atau obat tradisional sebagai pengobatan” dan “pijat, kerokan, okup/koop/bekam, dan sejenisnya”. variabel ini dibentuk atas dasar kebiasaan individu dalam rumah tangga yang pada masa sekarang masih banyak menggunakan pengobatan tradisional meskipun pengobatan medis semakin berkembang di era modern. adapun dummy variabel ditentukan dengan 1 = jika memilih pengobatan tradisional; 0 = jika memilih pengobatan modern. adapun variabel independen meliputi: kepemilikan asuransi kesehatan (health_insurance) merupakan variabel dummy ada atau tidaknya asuransi kesehatan yang dimiliki oleh individu dalam rumah tangga ifls 2007 dengan asumsi bahwa pada data ifls pada gelombang ini belum terdapat badan penyelenggara jaminan sosial (bpjs) yang baru resmi beroperasi per 1 januari 2014. kepemilikan asuransi kesehatan dibuat dengan kategori memiliki dan tidak memiliki asuransi kesehatan. adapun dummy variabel ditentukan dengan 1 = jika memiliki asuransi kesehatan; 0 = jika tidak memiliki asuransi kesehatan. 1) usia (age) adalah usia individu dalam rumah tangga ifls 2007 yang berusia 15 tahun atau lebih. 2) pendapatan (income) berupa jumlah pendapatan yang diterima oleh individu dalam rumah tangga ifls 2007dalam setiap bulannya. 3) faktor wilayah tempat tinggal (urban) merupakan variabel dummy tempat tinggal individu dalam rumah tangga ifls 2007 yang dibuat dengan kategori berdasarkan wilayah tempat tinggal yaitu perkotaan dan pedesaan. adapun dummy variabel ditentukan dengan 1 = jika tinggal di kota; dan 0 = jika tinggal di desa. 4) jarak rumah tinggal dengan fasilitas kesehatan (disfacility) merupakan jarak menuju fasilitas kesehatan khususnya fasilitas kesehatan modern yang ada dengan satuan kilo meter (km). 5) keberadaan pos obat (posobat) adalah ada tidaknya pos obat di daerah individu dalam rumah tangga ifls 2007. adapun dummy variabel ditentukan dengan 1= jika ada posobat; 0 = jika tidak ada pos obat. 6) pendidikan (years_educ) menunjukkan lama pendidikan yang telah ditempuh oleh individu dalam rumah tangga ifls 2007yang dibuat dengan kategori pendidikan tertinggi yang telah ditempuh oleh responden. tabel 5. seksi ps (pengobatan sendiri) jenis pengobatan sendiri (pstype) a. minum obat modern yang dijual bebas (seperti bodrex, inza, paramex) b. minum jamu atau obat tradisional sebagai pengobatan c. memakai obat luar (seperti tetes mata, salep, koyo, parem, dan sejenisnya) e. minum vitamin/suplemen f. pijat, kerokan, oukup/koop/bekam, dan sejenisnya sumber: kuesioner ifls dalam buku 3b final. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015: 26-41 32 model penelitian metode analisis yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah regresi probit. model probit menganalisis hubungan antara satu variabel dependen berupa data kualitatif dikotomi yang bernilai 1 apabila terdapat karakteristik dan bernilai 0 yang menyatakan ketiadaan karakteristik. model regresi probit menggunakan model variabel terikat yang juga bersifat dikotomi dan menggunakan nilai 1 atau 0, digunakan dalam situasi di mana variabel dependen memiliki kemungkinan tanggapan “ya” atau “tidak” di mana dalam studi ini kemungkinan tanggapan adalah 1 = jika memilih pengobatan tradisional dan 0 = jika memilih pengobatan modern. regresi probit dalam studi ini digunakan untuk mengetahui preferensi individu untuk memilih pengobatan tradisional. model persamaan regresi probit yang digunakan dalam studi ini dapat dituliskan dalam bentuk persamaan berikut: traditional = β health + β age1 2insurancemedicine +β income + β urban3 4 +β disfacility + β posobat5 6 +β years_educ + e7 1) studi ini menggunakan variabel dependen berupa pengobatan tradisional yaitu apakah individu dalam rumah tangga ifls 2007 menggunakan atau tidak menggunakan pengobatan tradisional untuk mengobati keluhan sakitnya. hosmer dan lemeshow (1989) menyatakan bahwa variabel yang menggunakan skala nominal harus diubah menjadi desain variabel (variabel dummy/boneka). sedangkan variabel independen berupa kepemilikan asuransi kesehatan, usia, pendapatan, wilayah tempat tinggal, jarak menuju fasilitas kesehatan, keberadaan pos obat dan pendidikan. hasil dan pembahasan pengobatan tradisional memiliki rata-rata (mean) sebesar 0,1709 dengan nilai maksimal adalah 1 (menggunakan obat tradisional) dan minimal adalah 0 (menggunakan pengobatan modern), sedangkan nilai standar deviasi adalah sebesar 0,3764. variabel kepemilikan asuransi kesehatan memiliki rata-rata sebesar 0,2731 dengan nilai maksimal adalah 1 (memiliki asuransi kesehatan) dan 0 (tidak memiliki asuransi kesehatan). sedangkan nilai standar deviasi adalah sebesar 0,0,4456. rata-rata usia individu dalam rumah tangga ifls 2007 pada studi ini adalah 40,1783 atau dibulatkan menjadi 40 tahun. usia paling muda dalam studi ini adalah anggota rumah tangga yang berusia 15 tahun dan yang tertua berusia 97 tahun. nilai standar deviasi usia adalah sebesar 16 tahun. pendapatan individu dalam rumah tangga rata-rata sebesar rp2.769.037,00 di mana pendapatan terbesar a dalah: rp1.000.000.000,00 dan pendapatan terendah adalah sebesar rp0,00 atau tidak memiliki pendapatan sama-se kali. di mana nilai standar deviasi adalah sebesar rp48.800.000,00. wilayah tempat tinggal memiliki rata-rata sebesar 0,5348 dengan nilai terkecil adalah 0 tabel 6. deskripsi variabel variabel deskripsi variabel nilai traditional_medicine pengobatan tradisional 1 jika menggunakan obat tradisional; 0 jika menggunakan pengobatan modern health_insurance kepemilikan asuransi kesehatan 1 jika memiliki asuransi kesehatan; 0 jika tidak memiliki asuransi kesehatan age usia tahun income pendapatan rupiah urban wilayah tempat tinggal 1 jika tinggal di kota; 0 jika tinggal di desa disfacility jarak menuju fasilitas kesehatan kilo meter (km) posobat keberadaan pos obat 1 jika ada pos obat; 0 jika tidak ada pos obat years_educ pendidikan tahun preferensi individu terhadap pengobatan ... (herika jennifer, endah saptutyningsih) 33 (jika tinggal di desa) dan terbesar adalah 1 (jika tinggal di kota). di mana nilai standar deviasi adalah sebesar 0,4987. rata-rata jarak rumah tinggal menuju fasilitas kesehatan adalah 5,4439 km, di mana nilai minimum atau jarak terdekat adalah 0 km dan nilai maksimal atau jarak terjauh adalah 600 km. nilai standar deviasi adalah sebesar 10,2202. keberadaanpos obat memiliki nilai rata-rata adalah sebesar 0,0483 dengan nilai maksimum adalah 1 (jika ada pos obat) dan nilai minimum adalah 0 (jika tidak ada pos obat). sedangkan nilai standar deviasi adalah sebesar 0,2145. rata-rata lama pendidikan adalah 7,7116 (dibulatkan menjadi 7 tahun) atau rata-rata lama pendidikan peserta ifls adalah lulusan tk (taman kanak-kanak) dan dilanjutkan dengan sekolah dasar (sd). di mana nilai minimum adalah 0 atau tidak mengenyam bangku sekolah sama sekali, sedangkan lama pendidikan maksimum adalah 21 tahun atau lulusan strata 3 (s3). nilai standar deviasi pendidikan adalah sebesar 4,4119. hasil analisis analisis data dalam studi ini menggunakan regresi probit yang bertujuan untuk mengetahui probabilitas individu dalam menggunakan pengobatan tradisional di indonesia. variabel independen yang digunakan adalah kepemilikan asuransi kesehatan yang merupakan dummy dari ada dan tidak ada asuransi kesehatan yang dimiliki individu dalam rumah tangga ifls 2007. variabel usia merupakan usia individu dalam rumah tangga ifls 2007 dalam satuan tahun. variabel pendapatan merupakan pendapatan yang diterima oleh individu dalam rumah tangga ifls tahun 2007 setiap bulannya. variabel wilayah tempat tinggal merupakan dummy tempat individu dalam rumah tangga ifls 2007 tinggal yaitu kota dan desa. variabel jarak rumah tinggal dengan fasilitas kesehatan merupakan jarak rumah tinggal individu dengan fasilitas kesehatan dengan satuan kilo meter. variabel keberadaan pos obat merupakan dummy dari ada atau tidaknya pos obat pada wilayah individu dalam rumah tanggal ifls 2007 tinggal. sedangkan variabel pendidikan merupakan lama pendidikan yang telah ditempuh oleh individu dalam rumah tangga ifls 2007. untuk menginterpretasi hasil analisis probit sedikit berbeda dengan analisis dengan metode lain. pada model probit untuk memperoleh hasil maka harus menggunakan tabel statistik z. pada metode probit, jika kita ingin mengetahui probabilitas individu untuk memilih pengobatan tradisional maka variabel yang signifikan maupun yang tidak signifikan tetap dimasukkan ke dalam persamaan, dari hasil regresi dengan menggunakan stata 11 se, persamaan regresi dapat dituliskan sebagai berikut: traditional_medicine = –0,5273+ 0,0782(health_insurance) 0,0086(age) 0,000000179(income) 0,3049(urban) 0,0007(disfacility) 0,6790(posobat) 0,0123(years_educ) 2) tabel 7. deskripsi statistik variabel mean std. dev. min max pengobatan tradisional (traditional_medicine) 0,1709 0,3764 0 1 kepemilikan asuransi kesehatan (health_insurance) 0,2731 0,4456 0 1 usia (age) 40,1783 16,6915 15 97 pendapatan (income) 2769037 4,88e+07 0 1,00e+09 wilayah tempat tinggal (urban) 0,5348 0,4987 0 1 jarak menuju fasilitas kesehatan (disfacility) 5.4439 10,2202 0 600 keberadaan pos obat (posobat) 0,0483 0,2145 0 1 pendidikan (years_educ) 7,7116 4,4119 0 21 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015: 26-41 34 keterangan: traditional_medicine adalah probabilitas untuk memilih pengobatan tradisional; health_insurance adalah kepemilikan asuransi kesehatan; age adalah usia individu rumah tangga; income adalah pendapatan individu rumah tangga; urban adalah wilayah tempat tinggal individu rumah tangga; disfacility adalah jarak menuju fasilitas kesehatan; posobat adalah keberadaan pos obat; years_educ adalah lama pendidikan individu rumah tangga nilai pseudo r2 yang ditunjukkan dalam tabel adalah sebesar 0,0299 hal ini menggambarkan bahwa persamaan model dalam studi ini hanya mampu menjelaskan sebesar 2,99 persen faktor-faktor yang berpengaruh terhadap probabilitas individu untuk memilih pengobatan tradisional. uji likelihood ratio (lr) atau dalam uji regresi linear sering disebut dengan uji f-statistic atau pengujian secara bersamasama ditunjukkan oleh nilai pro > chi2 yaitu sebesar 0,0329 dan signifikan pada α <0,05 artinya secara bersama-sama variabel usia, wilayah tempat tinggal, dan keberadaan pos obat berpengaruh terhadap probabilitas individu untuk memilih pengobatan tradisional. hasil regresi probit diperoleh hasil bahwa probabilitas individu untuk memilih pengobatan tradisional dipengaruhi oleh variabel usia, wilayah tempat tinggal dan keberadaan pos obat yang ada. variabel kepemilikan asuransi kesehatan, pendapatan, jarak menuju fasilitas kesehatan dan lama pendidikan tidak berpengaruh terhadap probabilitas individu untuk memilih pengobatan tradisional. 1) usia individu rumah tangga ifls 2007 (age) tabel deskripsi variabel statistik menunjukkan bahwa usia paling rendah anggota ifls 2007 adalah 15 tahun sedangkan usia maksimal individu dalam rumah tangga ifls 2007 adalah 97 tahun. besarnya probabilitas individu yang berusia 15 tahun untuk memilih pengobatan tradisional adalah sebagai berikut (dengan asumsi variabel lain dianggap konstan): traditional_medicine = -0,5273 + 0,0782(health_insurance) 0,0086(age) 0,000000179(income) 0,3049(urban) – 0,0007(disfacility) 0,6790(posobat) – 0,0123(years_educ) tabel 8. hasil regresi probit variabel probit model konstanta -0,5273 (0,2507) kepemilikan asuransi kesehatan (health_insurance) -0,0782 (0,1298) usia (age) -0,0086** (0,0037) pendapatan (income) -1,79e-07 (1,65e-07) wilayah tempat tinggal (urban) 0,3049* (0,1570) jarak menuju fasilitas kesehatan (disfacility) -0,0007 (0,0062) keberadaan pos obat (posobat) -0,6790** (0,2899) pendidikan (years_educ) -0,0123 (0,0174) pseudo r20,0299 prob lr statistic0,0329 dependen variabel: probabilitas individu untuk memilih pengobatan tradisional(health_insurance) keterangan: tanda ( ) menunjukkan robust standard error; *signifikan pada α=10%, ** signifikan pada α=5%, *** signifikan pada α=1% preferensi individu terhadap pengobatan ... (herika jennifer, endah saptutyningsih) 35 = -0,5273 + 0,0782(0) 0,0086(15) – 0,000000179(0) 0,3049(0) 0,0007(0) 0,6790(0) 0,0123(0) = -0,5273 0,1290 = -0,6563 (hasil dibulatkan menjadi -0,66) selanjutnya angka tersebut dicari nilainya pada tabel statistika z, di mana pada kolom kiri -0,6 dan kolom di atas angka 0,06 sehingga ditemukan angka 0,2546. selanjutnya angka tersebut dikurangkan dengan angka 1. sehingga diperoleh 1-0,2564 = 0,7454 atau 74,54 persen. jadi, probabilitas individu yang berusia muda untuk memilih pengobatan tradisional adalah sebesar 74,54 persen. sedangkan besarnya probabilitas individu yang berusia 97 tahun untuk memilih pengobatan tradisional adalah sebagai berikut (dengan asumsi variabel lain dianggap konstan): traditional_medicine = 0,5273 + 0,0782(health_insurance) – 0,0086(age) 0,000000179(income) – 0,3049(urban) 0,0007(disfacility) – 0,6790(posobat) 0,0123(years_educ) = -0,5273 + 0,0782(0) 0,0086(97) – 0,000000179(0) 0,3049(0) 0,0007(0) – 0,6790(0) 0,0123(0) = -0,5273 0,8342 = -1,3615 (hasil dibulatkan menjadi -1,36) selanjutnya angka tersebut dicari nilainya pada tabel statistika z, di mana pada kolom kiri -1,3 dan kolom di atas angka 0,06 sehingga ditemukan angka 0,0869. selanjutnya angka tersebut dikurangkan dengan angka 1. sehingga diperoleh 1 0,0869 = 0,9131 atau 91,31 persen. jadi, probabilitas individu yang berusia lanjut untuk memilih pengobatan tradisional adalah sebesar 91,31 persen. probabilitas untuk memilih pengobatan tradisional pada individu yang berusia muda adalah sebesar 74,54 persen, sedangkan pada individu yang berusia lanjut adalah 91,31 persen. berdasarkan nilai kedua probabilitas maka individu yang berusia lanjut memiliki probabilitas yang lebih tinggi untuk memilih pengobatan tradisional dibandingkan dengan individu berusia muda. artinya semakin bertambah usia individu maka probabilitas untuk memilih pengobatan tradisional semakin tinggi. 2) wilayah tempat tinggal individu rumah tangga ifls 2007 (urban) adapun dummy variabel ditentukan dengan 1 jika tinggal di kota dan 0 jika tinggal di desa dengan asumsi usia pada nilai minimumnya yaitu 15 tahun. besarnya probabilitas individu yang tinggal di desa (0) untuk memilih pengobatan tradisional adalah sebagai berikut (dengan asumsi variabel lain dianggap konstan): traditional_medicine= -0,5273+0,0782(health_insurance)-0,0086(age)0,000000179(income)-0,3049(urban)0,0007(disfacility)-0,6790(posobat)0,0123(years_educ) = -0,5273 + 0,0782(0) 0,0086(15) – 0,000000179(0) 0,3049(0) 0,0007(0) – 0,6790(0) -0,0123(0) = -0,5273-0,1290 = -0,6563 (hasil dibulatkan menjadi -0,66) selanjutnya angka tersebut dicari nilainya pada tabel statistika z, di mana pada kolom kiri -0,6 dan kolom di atas angka 0,06 sehingga ditemukan angka 0,2546. angka tersebut dikurangkan dengan angka 1. sehingga diperoleh 10,2564 = 0,7454 atau 74,54 persen. jadi, probabilitas individu yang tinggal di desa untuk memilih pengobatan tradisional adalah sebesar 74,54 persen. sedangkan besarnya probabilitas individu yang tinggal di kota (1) untuk memilih pengobatan tradisional adalah sebagai berikut (dengan asumsi variabel lain dianggap konstan): traditional_medicine = -0,5273 + 0,0782(health_insurance) 0,0086(age) jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015: 26-41 36 0,000000179(income) -0,3049(urban) 0,0007(disfacility) -0,6790(posobat)0,0123(years_educ) = -0,5273 + 0,0782(0) 0,0086(15) 0,000000179(0) 0,3049(1) 0,0007(0) 0,6790(0) 0,0123(0) = -0,5273 0,1290 + 0,3049 = -0,3514 (hasil dibulatkan menjadi -0,35) selanjutnya angka tersebut dicari nilainya pada tabel statistika z, di mana pada kolom kiri -0,3 dan kolom di atas angka 0,05 sehingga ditemukan angka 0,3632. selanjutnya angka tersebut dikurangkan dengan angka 1. sehingga diperoleh 1-0,3632 = 0,6368 atau 63,68 persen. jadi, probabilitas individu yang tinggal di kota untuk memilih pengobatan tradisional adalah sebesar 63,68 persen. probabilitas untuk memilih pengobatan tradisional pada individu yang tinggal di desa adalah sebesar 74,54 persen, sedangkan pada individu yang tinggal di kota adalah 63,68 persen. berdasarkan nilai kedua probabilitas maka individu yang tinggal di desa memiliki probabilitas yang lebih tinggi untuk memilih pengobatan tradisional dibandingkan dengan individu dalam rumah tangga ifls 2007yang tinggal di kota. 3) keberadaan pos obat (posobat) adapun dummy variabel ditentukan dengan 1 jika ada pos obat dan 0 jika tidak ada pos obat dengan asumsi usia pada nilai minimumnya yaitu pada 15 tahun. besarnya probabilitas individu yang tinggal di wilayah yang ada pos boatnya (0) untuk memilih pengobatan tradisional adalah sebagai berikut (dengan asumsi variabel lain dianggap konstan): traditional_medicine =-0,5273 + 0,0782(health_insurance) – 0,0086(age) 0,000000179(income) 0,3049(urban) 0,0007(disfacility) 0,6790(posobat) 0,0123(years_educ) =-0,5273 + 0,0782(0) 0,0086(15) 0,000000179(0) 0,3049(0) – 0,0007(0) – 0,6790(0) 0,0123(0) = -0,5273-0,1290 = -0,6563 (hasil dibulatkan menjadi -0,66) selanjutnya angka tersebut dicari nilainya pada tabel statistika z, di mana pada kolom kiri -0,6 dan kolom di atas angka 0,06 sehingga ditemukan angka 0,2546. selanjutnya angka tersebut dikurangkan dengan angka 1. sehingga diperoleh 1-0,2564 = 0,7454 atau 74,54 persen. jadi, probabilitas individu yang tinggal di wilayah yang tidak ada pos obatnya untuk memilih pengobatan tradisional adalah sebesar 74,54 persen. sedangkan besarnya probabilitas individu yang tinggal di wilayah yang ada pos obatnya (1) untuk memilih pengobatan tradisional adalah sebagai berikut (dengan asumsi variabel lain dianggap konstan): traditional_medicine = -0,5273 + 0,0782(health_insurance) -0,0086(age) 0,000000179(income) 0,3049(urban)0,0007(disfacility) 0,6790(posobat)0,0123(years_educ) = -0,5273 + 0,0782(0) 0,0086(15) – 0,000000179(0) 0,3049(0)-0,0007(0) – 0,6790(1) 0,0123(0) = -0,5273 0,1290 0,6790 = -1,3353 (hasil dibulatkan menjadi -1,33) selanjutnya angka tersebut dicari nilainya pada tabel statistika z, di mana pada kolom kiri -1,3 dan kolom di atas angka 0,03 sehingga ditemukan angka 0,0918. selanjutnya angka tersebut dikurangkan dengan angka 1. sehingga diperoleh 1-0,0918 = 0,9082 atau 90,82 persen. jadi, probabilitas individu yang tinggal di wilayah yang ada pos obatnya untuk memilih pengobatan tradisional adalah sebesar 90,82 persen. probabilitas untuk memilih pengobatan tradisional pada individu yang tinggal pada wilayah yang tidak ada atau minim pos obatnya adalah sebesar 74,54 persen, sedangkan pada preferensi individu terhadap pengobatan ... (herika jennifer, endah saptutyningsih) 37 individu yang tinggal pada wilayah yang ada pos obatnya adalah 90,82 persen. berdasarkan nilai kedua probabilitas maka individu yang tinggal pada wilayah yang ada pos obatnya memiliki probabilitas yang lebih tinggi untuk memilih pengobatan tradisional dibandingkan dengan individu yang tinggal pada wilayah yang minim atau bahkan tidak ada pos obatnya. artinya semakin banyak pos obat di wilayah individu rumah tangga ifls 2007 tinggal maka probabilitas individu untuk memilih pengobatan tradisional semakin tinggi. studi ini menggunakan data panel atau longitudinal data yang diolah menggunakan metode regresi probit dengan tujuan untuk mengetahui preferensi individu untuk memilih pengobatan tradisional. hasil regresi menunjukkan bahwa variable usia, wilayah tempat tinggal dan keberadaan pos obat mempengaruhi probabilitas individu untuk memilih pengobatan tradisional. sedangkan variabel kepemilikan asuransi kesehatan, pendapatan, jarak menuju fasilitas kesehatan dan pendidikan tidak berpengaruh terhadap probabilitas individu untuk memilih pengobatan tradisional. usia secara signifikan berpengaruh terhadap probabilitas individu untuk memilih pengobatan tradisional. semakin bertambahnya usia individu dalam rumah tangga ifls 2007 maka probabilitas untuk memilih pengobatan tradisional semakin tinggi. hal ini sejalan engan studi kristina, dkk (2007) yang menyatakan bahwa usia memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap perilaku pengobatan sendiri yang rasional pada masyarakat. studi ini juga sejalan dengan pendapat supardi, dkk (2003) menyatakan bahwa penduduk yang berusia lanjut yaitu lebih dari 56 tahun untuk menggunkan obat tradisional lebih banyak 1,56 kali daripada penduduk yang bukan lanjut usia. proporsi penggunaan obat tradisional pada individu kelompok lanjut usia lebih tinggi daripada individu yang belum lanjut usia artinya ada hubungan yang signifikan antara individu dengan kelompok usia lanjut usia dengan penggunaan obat tradisional, hal ini mungkin berhubungan dengan keluhan sakit lebih banyak diderita pada kelompok usia tua dengan jenis keluhan yang kurang dikenal untuk ditanggulangi dengan penggunaan obat modern (supardi, 2007). kondisi ini dapat disebabkan karena orang tua lebih menyukai penggunaan obat tradisional dengan alasan pengobatan tradisional tidak merepotkan atau praktis dan lebih mudah dilakukan karena tidak perlu datang kepada tenaga medis untuk meminta resep obat. obat tradisional lebih diminati oleh orang yang berusia lanjut karena kesadaran akan bahan kimia yang didapatkan dari pengobatan medis dapat membawa dampak buruk bagi kesehatan mengingat antibody atau kemampuan tubuh untuk menahan serangan dari luar sudah mulai menurun pada individu yang berumur lanjut. selain itu pengobatan tradisional telah menjadi tradisi warisan nenek moyang yang telah dilakukan sejak dulu dan menjadi kebiasaan yang melekat pada diri seseorang misalnya pada penyakit yang sering muncul pada individu dalam rumah tangga seperti masuk angin di mana pengobatan untuk masuk angin dapat desembuhkan dengan cara kerokan yang sudah menjadi kebiasaan dan tersugesti oleh individu di mana masuk angin belum akan sembuh jika belum dikerok. wilayah tempat tinggal berpengaruh terhadap terhadap probabilitas individu untuk memilih pengobatan tradisional. probabilitas individu untuk memilih pengobatan tradisional pada individu yang tinggal di desa lebih tinggi daripada individu yang tinggal di kota. hal ini sejalan dengan studi supardi, dkk (2003) menyatakan bahwa penduduk yang tinggal di lokasi pedesaan menggunakan obat tradisional lebih banyak 1,36 kali daripada penduduk yang tinggal di kota. hidayat dan hardiansyah (2012) menyatakan bahwa tumbuhan obat tradisional di indonesia mempunyai peran yang sangat penting terutama bagi masyarakat di daerah pedesaan yang fasilitas kesehatannya masih sangat terbatas di mana dalam studinya menyatakan bahwa kurangnya fasilitas kesehatan di kabupaten sintang membuat masyarakat memanfaatkan tumbuhan obat tradisional sebagai alternatif dan langkah awal pengobatan suatu penyakit. darubekti (2001) menyatakan bahwa individu yang tinggal di desa lebih mendahulukan obat tradisional untuk mengobati keluhan sakit ringan, karena obat modern sulit dijangkau dan keterbatasan pendapatan individu dalam rumah tanggal. kondisi ini dapat terjadi karena ketersediaan tanaman obat sebagai bahan baku pengobatan tradisional jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015: 26-41 38 masih banyak di jumpai pada wilayah desa yang notabenenya masih memiliki lahan yang luas untuk tanaman obat tumbuh baik di tanam sebagai taman obat keluarga (toga) atau tumbuh secara liar. keberadaan pos obat secara signifikan berpengaruh terhadap probabilitas individu untuk memilih pengobatan tradisional. berdasarkan nilai probit yang ditunjukkan dalam studi ini, probabilitas individu yang tinggal pada wilayah yang tidak terdapat pos obatnya lebih rendah daripada individu yang tinggal di wilayah yang terdapat pos obatnya. kondisi ini dapat terjadi dalam kasus di mana obat tradisional digunakan hanya untuk mengobati keluhan sakit ringan misalnya batuk, pilek, pusing, masuk angin dan gejala sakit ringan lainnya. pos obat sebagai fasilitas kesehatan yang ada dimaksudkan untuk memberikan kemudahan bagi masyarakat setempat untuk memperoleh pelayanan kesehatan tanpa mengurangi peranan pengobatan tradisional (rahayu, dkk., 2006). selain itu, walaupun masyarakat tinggal di wilayah yang ada pos obatnya namun individu lebih memilih pengobatan tradisional karena individu dalam rumah tangga merasa khawatir akan efek samping dari penggunaan obat kimia termasuk obat warung yang merupakan obat bebas dan obat bebas terbatas yang bukan berarti bebas efek samping dalam pemakaiannya. minimnya pengetahuan individu akan aturan pakai obat, kesesuaian dosis, lama pemakaian, ada tidaknya efek samping dan interaksi antara obat dan makanan juga dapat menjadi penyebab tingginya probabilitas individu yang tinggal di wilayah yang terdapat pos obat untuk memilih pengobatan tradisional. efek samping dari penggunaan obat kimia menyebabkan adanya pergeseran pola hidup dalam masyarakat dunia termasuk indonesia yang berkembang menuju paradigma back to nature dengan menggunakan cara-cara tradisional untuk kesehatan. putri (2008) menyatakan bahwa semakin meningkatnya permintaan akan obat tradisional yang dipicu oleh maraknya tren back to nature yang melanda berbagai negara di seluruh dunia termasuk indonesia, kesadaran akan efek samping yang ditimbulkan oleh obat sintetik, keterjangkauan dalam mengonsumsi, dan kecenderungan individu yang lebih menyukai hal-hal praktis di manahal ini didukung dengan paradigma pembangunan baru perekonomian indonesia yang mendukung pengembangan industri yang mengolah hasil pertanian primer menjadi olahan (agroindustri), maka keberadaan industri yang bergerak di bidang pengolahan tanaman obat menjadi semakin berkembang. selain itu bertambahnya pengetahuan individu yang didapat dari berbagai media di mana sekarang banyak perjanjian antara tenaga kesehatan dengan perusahaan farmasi yang menjadi sponsor penyelenggaraan kegiatan ilmiah yang berhubungan dengan kebijakan pelayanan kesehatan. intervensi dengan perusahaan farmasi ini menyebabkan kebanyakan dokter enggan menuliskan obat generik sehingga masyarakat terkadang harus membayar lebih mahal untuk obat yang harusnya dapat dibeli dengan harga yang lebih murah. adanya hal ini membuat masyarakat menjadi semakin cerdas untuk tidak menjadi korban dalam perjanjian yang banyak merugikan individu sebagai pasien. pendapatan tidak memiliki hubungan yang signifikan terhadap terhadap probabilitas individu untuk memilih pengobatan tradisional, hal ini sejalan dengan studi purnamaningrum (2010) yang menyatakan bahwa pendapatan tidak memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap perilaku mengobati baik dengan menggunakan obat modern ataupun pengobatan tradisional. pernyataan ini juga didikung oleh studi muwahid (2006) yang menyatakan bahwa besarnya penghasilan pekerja seks komersial di lokalisasi dolly tidak berpengaruh terhadap probabilitas dalam pemilihan dan penggunaan obat tradisional yaitu jamu kemasan karena sebagian besar konsumen lebih memprioritaskan khasiat. studi yang dilakukan oleh yudhistira (2006) juga menyimpulkan bahwa besarnya penghasilan individu tidak berpengaruh terhadap probabilitas dalam pemilihan dan penggunaan jamu kemasan karena sebagian besar konsumen jamu kemasan lebih memprioritaskan khasiat yang akan didapat. pendapatan individu tidak mempengaruhi probabilitas untuk memilih pengobatan tradisional di mana kondisi ini dapat terjadi karena individu dalam masyarakat yang mempunyai kemampuan secara sosioekonomi yaitu mempunyai penghasilan dan pekerjaan di atas upah minimum akan berupaya untuk mencari pengobatan ke sarana preferensi individu terhadap pengobatan ... (herika jennifer, endah saptutyningsih) 39 pelayanan kesehatan (gaol, 2013). pengeluaran secara ekonomi merupakan fungsi dari pendapatan, dalam studi ini pendapatan per kapita mempengaruhi kecenderungan untuk memanfaatkan (berkunjung) ke fasilitas pelayanan kesehatan tradisional atau modern. semakin tinggi pengeluaran per kapita maka semakin besar kemungkinan si individu untuk memilih dan mampu membayar pelayanan kesehatan modern dibandingkan pelayanan kesehatan tradisional jarak menuju fasilitas kesehatan tidak memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap probabilitas individu untuk memilih pengobatan tradisional. hal ini sejalan dengan studi rahayu (2012) yang menyatakan bahwa jarak tempat tinggal menuju fasilitas kesehatan tidak berpengaruh terhadap terhadap probabilitas individu untuk memilih pengobatan tradisional. tidak ada hubungan antara jarak tempat tinggal dengan perilaku pencarian pengobatan sendiri (kristina, 2008). kondisi ini dapat disebabkan karena perilaku mengobati oleh individu lebih kepada kepercayaan akan obat yang dipilih dan juga khasiat, meskipun jarak menuju fasilitas kesehatan modern jauh atau dekat individu tetap akan memilih menggunakan obat tradisional karena sugesti akan obat tersebut. pendidikan tidak memiliki hubungan terhadap probabilitas individu untuk memilih pengobatan tradisional, hal ini sejalan dengan studi wardana (2008) menemukan bahwa tingkat pendidikan tidak berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap minat individu dalam menggunakan obat tradisional, disebabkan adanya faktor lain yang lebih kuat memberikan pengaruh seperti tradisi nenek moyang, kebiasaan keluarga dan informasi nasehat dari tetangga atau teman kerabat atau penjual jamu/obat tradisional secara langsung. purnamaningrum (2010) yang menyatakan bahwa pendidikan tidak memiliki pengaruh terhadap perilaku mengobati. kondisi ini dapat disebabkan karena probabilitas masyarakat memilih obat tradisional tergantung dengan tingkat pengetahuan dan pemahaman individu mengenai pengobatan tradisional yang biasanya telah didapat dari pengalaman yang diberikan oleh orang tua dan kebiasaan masyarakat sehingga penggunaan obat tradisional sudah menjadi sugesti akan sembuh jika individu mengkonsumsi obat tradisional untuk menyembukan penyakitnya. kepemilikan asuransi kesehatan tidak memiliki hubungan yang signifikan terhadap probabilitas individu untuk memilih pengobatan tradisional. hasil studi ini berbanding terbalik dengan studi yang dilakukan oleh purnamaningrum (2010) yang menyatakan bahwa terdapat hubungan yang signifikan antara asuransi kesehatan dengan perilaku mengobati oleh seseorang. hal ini juga bertentangan dengan studi yang dilakukan oleh supadmi (2013) yang menyatakan bahwa jumlah pasien yang tidak memiliki asuransi kesehatan lebih banyak melakukan swamedikasi dibandingkan dengan pasien yang memiliki asuransi kesehatan artinya hasil analisis menunjukkan kepemilikan asuransi kesehatan memiliki hubungan yang signifikan dengan perilaku pengobatan. kondisi ini dapat terjadi dalam kasus di mana obat tradisional digunakan untuk mengobati keluhan penyakit ringan seperti batuk, pilek, sakit kepala masuk angin dan keluhan sakit ringan lainnya yang tidak memerlukan rujukan dan resep dokter atau tenaga kesehatan yang ahli dalam bidangnya. simpulan hasil uji regresi dengan metode probit menggunakan tujuh variabel menghasilkan tiga variabel independen yang mempunyai pengaruh signifikan terhadap variabel dependen masingmasing adalah usia, wilayah tempat tinggal dan keberadaan pos obat. sedangkan kepemilikan asuransi kesehatan, pendapatan, jarak menuju fasilitas kesehatan dan pendidikan tidak berpengaruh terhadap probabilitas untuk memilih pengobatan tradisional. berdasarkan simpulan di atas, maka penulis memberikan beberapa saran, yaitu: pemerintah diharapkan dapat mengkampanyekan pentingnya hidup sehat dengan menggunakan obat tradisional karena adanya dampak buruk yang ditimbulkan dari konsumsi obat kimia yang muncul dalam jangka waktu yang panjang. di mana pencegahan sedini mungkin dengan pengalihan pada bahan-bahan tradisional akan dapat meminimalkan resiko yang akan ditimbulkan kelak. individu dalam rumah tangga yang tinggal jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015: 26-41 40 di wilayah yang terdapat pos obatnya memiliki probabilitas yang lebih tinggi untuk memilih pengobatan tradisional. mengingat banyaknya individu dalam rumah tangga ifls 2007 yang melakukan pengobatan ini maka departemen kesehatan (depkes) diharapkan dapat melakukan pembinaan dan penataan yang lebih baik dan luas terhadap obat tradisional guna mendukung program indonesia sehat 2010 serta mendukung tren back to nature yang dapat mendukung pemerintah dalam mewujudkan visi indonesia sehat 2010 tentang gambaran kehidupan rakyat indonesia yang hidup dalam lingkungan yang sehat dan dengan perilaku hidup sehat. wilayah tempat tinggal mempengaruhi probabilitas individu untuk memilih pengobatan tradisional di mana individu yang tinggal di desa lebih tinggi probabilitasnya. hal ini dapat disebabkan karena bahan dasar pengobatan tradisional masih banyak tersedia di alam, dengan ini diharapkan pemerintah setempat dapat melihat hal ini sebagai peluang untuk membuat industri rumahan yang memproduksi obat tradisional dengan kemasan yang lebih modern sehingga dapat mendukung berkembangnya tren back to nature khususnya pada individu yang tinggal di kota. hasil studi yang telah dilakukan maka studi ini mempunyai beberapa keterbatasan, yaitu: studi ini hanya menggunakan data ifls4 (indonesia family live survey) pada tahun 2007. studi selanjutnya diharapkan dapat menggunakan data ifls pada semua periode yaitu ifls-1 pada tahun 1993, ifls-2 pada tahun 1997, dan ifls-3 pada tahun 2000 dengan tujuan memperoleh hasil yang lebih baik dan menyeluruh. studi ini menggunakan metode regresi probit di mana model ini memiliki kelemahan dalam masalah probabilitas bersyarat yang ditaksir mungkin tidak terletak antara nilai 0 dan 1. hal ini disebabkan karena hubungan antara variabel terikat dengan variabel bebasnya linear, maka nilai variabel terikatnya akan sangat tergantung dari nilai variabel bebas. dengan demikian, hasil perhitungan yang diperoleh akan mungkin berada di luar jangkauan nilai 0 sampai dengan 1 atau bersifat diskrit (discrete) di mana nilainya tidak dapat berada di luar pilihan beberapa opsi jawaban. hal ini menjadikan metode ini sebagai model yang tidak terlalu baik. jadi, diharapkan untuk studi selanjutnya dapat menggunakan metode yang berbeda sehingga hasil studi yang diperoleh dapat dibandingkan dengan studi sebelumnya. daftar pustaka rustam, dkk (2007). efek anti inflamasi ekstrak etanol kunyit (curcuma domestica val.) pada tikus putih jantan galur wistar. jurnal sains dan teknologi farmasi, vol. 12, no.2: 112-115. gazali, dkk. (2011). perilaku pencarian pengobatan terhadap kejadian penyakit malaria pada suku mandar di desa lara kecamatan karossa kabupaten mamuju provinsi sulawesi barat. jurnal penelitian, fakultas kesehatan masyarakat, universitas hasanuddin. triratnawati, a. (2010). pengobatan tradisional, upaya meminimalkan biaya kesehatan masyarakat desa di jawa. jurnal manajemen pelayanan kesehatan, vol. 13, no. 2 juni 2010:69-73. kristina, dkk. (2007). perilaku pengobatan sendiri yang rasional pada masyarakat. berita kedokteran masyarakat, vol. 23, no. 4. setyawati, g dan meridian, a. (2010). modal sosial dan pemilihan dukun dalam proses persalinan: apakah relevan?. kesehatan, vol. 14, no. 1, juni 2010: 11-16. hidayat, b. (2008). estimasi dampak program asuransi kesehatan pada jumlah kunjungan rawat jalan di indonesia. jurnal manajemen pelayanan kesehatan, 11.01. supadmi, w. (2013). gambaran pasien geriatri melakukan swamedikasi di kabupaten sleman. jurnal pharmaciana, vol. 3, no. 2, 2013: 45-50. purnamaningrum, a. (2010). faktor-faktor yang berhubungan dengan perilaku masyarakat untuk mendapatkan pelayanan kesehatan mata. skripsi, universitas diponegoro. rahayu, da. (2012). faktor-faktor yang berhubungan dengan pemilihan pengobatan tradisional di wilayah kerja puskesmas muara siberut kecamatan siberut selatan preferensi individu terhadap pengobatan ... (herika jennifer, endah saptutyningsih) 41 kabupaten kepulauan mentawai tahun 2012. skripsi, universitas andalas. supardi s, dan susanty al. (2010). penggunaan obat tradisional dalam upaya pengobatan sendiri di indonesia (analisis data susenas tahun 2007). buletin penelitian kesehatan, vol. 38, no. 2: 80-89. supardi s, dkk. (2003). beberapa faktor yang berhubungan dengan penggunaan obat tradisional dalam pengobatan sendiri di indonesia. buletin penelitian kesehatan, 31.1, maret. supadmi, w. (2013). gambaran pasien geriatri melakukan swamedikasi di kabupaten sleman. jurnal pharmaciana, vol. 3, no. 2, 2013: 45-50. gaol, tl. (2013). pengaruh faktor sosio demografi, sosio ekonomi dan kebutuhan terhadap perilaku masyarakat dalam pencarian pengobatan di kecamatan medan kota tahun 2013. tesis, universitas sumatera utara. hosmer, dw dan lemeshow. (1989). applied logistic regression. ed. john wolfley sons (81): 8-20. hidayat, d dan hardiansyah g. (2012). studi keanekaragaman jenis tumbuhan obat di kawasan iuphhk pt. sari bumi kusuma camp tontang kabupaten sintang. jurnal vol. 8, no. 2: 61-68. darubekti, n. (2001). perilaku kesehatan masyarakat desa talang pauh kecamatan pondok kelapa kabupaten lampung. jurnal penelitian unib. 7(2): 96-103. rahayu, dkk. (2006). pemanfaatan tumbuhan obat secara tradisional oleh masyarakat lokal di pulau wawonii, sulawesi tenggara. biodiversitas vol. 7, no. 3: 245250. putri, fsa. (2008). formulasi strategi pemasaran obat tradisional pada taman syifa di kota bogor, jawa barat. skripsi, fakultas pertanian, institut pertanian bogor. muwahid, a. (2006). pola pemilihan dan penggunaan jamu kemasan di kalangan pekerja seks komersial di lokalisasi dolly, surabaya. s fakultas farmasi ubaya. yudhistira, rb. (2006). pola pemilihan dan penggunaan jamu kemasan di kalangan penarik becak di terminal bratang-surabaya. skripsi, universitas surabaya. wardana. (2008). penggunaan obat tradisional sebagai alternatif pengobatan pada masyarakat di kabupaten sleman. skripsi, fakultas farmasi, universitas ahmad dahlan, yogyakarta. lampiran tabel 2. produksi tanaman obat hasil budidaya (kg) tahun 2009 2013 komoditas tahun 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 jahe 122.181.084 107.734.608 94.743.139 114.537.658 155.286.288 lengkuas 59.332.313 58.961.844 57.701.484 58.186.488 69.730.091 kencur 43.635.311 29.638.127 34.016.850 42.626.207 41.343.456 kunyit 124.047.450 107.375.347 84.803.466 96.979.119 120.726.111 lempuyang 8.804.375 8.520.161 8.717.497 7.235.998 11.407.985 temulawak 36.826.340 26.671.149 24.105.870 44.085.151 35.664.756 temuireng 7.584.022 7.140.926 7.920.573 6.112.765 9.583.670 kejineling 943.721 1.139.223 949.017 834.472 963.585 dringo 1.074.901 754.551 611.608 526.090 634.330 kapulaga 25.178.901 28.550.282 47.231.297 42.973.264 54.171.417 mengkudu 16.267.057 14.613.481 14.411.737 8.967.750 8.432.119 sambiloto 4.334.768 3.845.063 3.286.262 964.888 2.257.368 temukunci 4.701.570 4.358.236 3.951.932 4.307.318 8.829.437 sumber: www.bps.ac.id, produksi tanaman obat-obatan di indonesia image (2).jpg image (3).jpg image (4).jpg image (5).jpg image (6).jpg image (7).jpg image (8).jpg studi efektivitas pelayanan publik di kecamatan kejaksan kota cirebon jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 1, april 2016, hlm. 22-30 doi: 10.18196/jesp.17.1.2458 analisis pengaruh pertumbuhan ekonomi terhadap penggunaan lahan perkotaan pendekatan spatial econometrics: studi kasus perkotaan diy, 2011 prastowo fakultas ekonomi universitas islam indonesia ring road utara, condongcatur, depok, sleman, yogyakarta 55283, indonesia. e-mail korespondensi: prastowo@uii.ac.id naskah diterima: november 2015; disetujui: februari 2016 abstract: this paper aims to demonstrate the effect of economic growth on the urban land use. this study used data area according to the type of land use by district building yard to measure urban land. in addition, to illustrate economic growth the use of pdb regional, the authors found that 1 percent increase in pdb regional resulted in changes of urban land uses amounted to 0.55 percent in diy urban areas. increasing urban land use implictions for the expansion of urban land in diy. result show that economic growth are particulay important urban land use in diy urban areas. keywords: land use, urban, economic growth jel classification: o40, q15, c21 abstrak: penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menunjukkan pengaruh pertumbuhan ekonomi terhadap penggunaan lahan perkotaan. penelitian ini mengunanakan data luas wilayah menurut jenis pengunaan tanah bangunan pekarangan per kecamatan untuk mengukur penggunaan lahan perkotaan. selain itu, penggunaan pdrb untuk menggambarkan pertumbuhan ekonomi, penulis menemukan bahwa peningkatan 1 persen penggunaan lahan perkotaan mengakibatkan perubahan pdrb di wilayah perkotaan diy sebesar 0,55 persen. meningkatnya penggunaan lahan perkotaan berimplikasi perluasan lahan perkotaan di daerah istimewa yogyakarta. penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi berperan penting pada penggunaan lahan perkotaan di wilayah perkotaan daerah istimewa yogyakarta. kata kunci: penggunaan lahan, perkotaan, pertumbuhan ekonomi klasifikasi jel: o40, q15, c21 analisis pengaruh pertumbuhan ekonomi ... (prastowo) 23 pendahuluan pergeseran utama pola kehidupan penduduk dari perdesaan ke perkotaan terjadi pada proses pertumbuhan ekonomi (kuznets, 1974). selanjutnya, terjadi interaksi antara pertumbuhan ekonomi, urbanisasi dan pergerakan tingkat kelahiran dan kesuburan penduduk. li (2012) menjelaskan bahwa pola interaksi perdesaanperkotaan mendorong integrasi perdesaan dan perkotaan menuju aglomerasi perkotaan. perubahan penggunaan lahan perkotaan dapat dikaitkan dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi. misalnya, tian et al (2012) menjelaskan bahwa sebagai konsekuensi dari pertumbuhan ekonomi dan perluasan perkotaan adalah sejumlah lahan pertanian telah terkonversi menjadi jalan beraspal dan bangunan tempat tinggal. di samping itu, yu et al. (2011) melakukan simulasi land use land cover (lulc) dengan mengunakan data penggunaan tanah, pertumbuhan penduduk dan pertumbuhan ekonomi di kota daqing. salah satu hasil simulasi tersebut mengindikasikan bahwa kebijakan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang cepat berdampak pada land built-up meningkatan signifikan sedangkan daerah padang rumput dan lahan basah menurun. lebih lanjut, kumar (2009) berpendapat bahwa perbedaan produktivitas lahan juga turut berperan dominan dalam perubahan lahan pertanian ke perkotaan. sementara itu, hietel et al (2007) menegaskan bahwa persentase perbedaan pada data tutupan lahan yang relatif tinggi dapat dijelaskan oleh faktor sosial ekonomi. indikator tersebut dapat membantu untuk merekonstruksi perubahan tutupan lahan di daerah lain. deang et al (2010) menggunakan data pertumbuhan ekonomi dan penggunaan lahan perkotaan di china, menyimpulkan bahwa pentingnya pertumbuhan ekonomi dalam penentuan penggunaan lahan perkotaan. hasil penelitianya menunjukkan bahwa perluasan lahan perkotaan sebesar 3 persen ketika perekonomian tumbuh sebesar 10 persen. selain itu, perluasan pusat perkotaan terkait dengan perubahan struktur ekonomi china. han dan he (1999) mengeksplorasi pola distribusi dari hilangnya lahan pertanian antara wilayah dan ukuran kelompok kota. temuanya menyatakan bahwa faktor utama penyebab hilangnya lahan pertanian di kota-kota adalah pertumbuhan penduduk perkotaan dan pembangunan real estate. studi kasus yang meneliti tentang perubahan lahan perkotaan di indonesia antara lain, firman (2000) yang membahas konversi lahan di pinggiran perkotaan kota-kota besar di indonesia selama periode boom ekonomi dan waktu krisis ekonomi. kawasaan perkotaan merupakan wilayah yang mempunyai kegiatan utama bukan pertanian dengan susunan fungsi kawasan sebagai tempat permukiman perkotaan, pemusatan dan distribusi pelayanan jasa pemerintahan, pelayanan sosial dan kegiatan ekonomi (perda no. 2 tahun 2010 tentang rtrw provinsi daerah istimewa yogyakarta). pada gambar 1 terlihat bahwa kecamatan-kecamatan di kota yogyakarta persentase penggunaan tanah untuk bangun dan pekarangan relatif tinggi di atas 75%. sementara itu, kecamatan yang berdekatan atau berbatasan langsung dengan kota yogyakarta persentasenya sebesar 50-75%, seperti kecamatan depok, gamping, mlati, banguntapan dan kasihan. gambar 1. penggunaan tanah untuk bangun dan pekarangan per kecamatan di perkotaan yogyakarta tahun 2011 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 1, april 2016: 22-30 24 pola ekspansi luasan daerah perkotaan diy relatif cepat di kecamatan yang berdekatan dengan kota yogyakarta. hal yang menarik dari pola persebaran luasan lahan perkotaan diy adalah bebentuk pola sentrifugal. pola ekspansi tersebut menjauh dari titik pusat kota yogyakarta. gambar 2. pdrb per kecamatan di perkotaan yogyakarta tahun 2011 gambar 3. kepadatan penduduk per kecamatan di perkotaan yogyakarta tahun 2011 gambar 2 memperlihatkan persebaran pdrb per kecamatan di perkotaan diy. pola pesebaran pdrb tersebut memperlihatkan ketidakmerataan dalam pembangunan ekonomi. kecamatan-kecamatan yang berdekatan dengan kota yogyakarta cenderung memiliki pdrb tinggi, seperti kecamatan depok, kasihan, sewon, banguntapan, ngaglik, dan mlati. sebaliknya, kecamatan yang jauh dari pusat kota yogyakarta cenderung memiliki pdrb yang rendah. sementara itu, pada gambar 3 terlihat bahwa konsentrasi kepadatan penduduk berada di kota yogyakarta. pola pesebaran kepadatan, pola sentrifugal, yaitu perkembangan menjauh dari titik pusat. berkenaan hal tersebut, penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh pertumbuhan ekonomi terhadap penggunaan lahan perkotaan di kawasan perkotaan daerah istimewa yogyakarta. paper ini membahas literatur yang relevan mengenai analisis dampak pertumbuhan ekonomi terhadap perluasan lahan perkotaan. setelah memaparkan telaah literatur, paper ini akan menyajikan metode penelitian yang dilanjutkan dengan menyajikan pembahasan hasil penelitian dan pembahasan. kemudian, paper ini akan ditutup dengan kesimpulan dan saran untuk penelitian selanjutnya. metode penelitian penelitian ini mengambil studi kawasan perkotaan daerah istimewa yogyakarta.teknik yang digunakan untuk menentukan sampel adalah teknik purposive sampling (penarikan sampel secara sengaja). data penilitian merupakan data sekunder, yaitu data cross section kecamatan di kabupaten sleman, bantul, dan kota yogyakarta tahun 2011. sampel dalam penelitian ini adalah 48 kecamatan di kabupaten sleman, bantul, dan kota yogyakarta tahun 2011. data sekunder tersebut, diperoleh dari bps diy dan literatur-literatur lain yang masih berhubungan dengan penelitian. model yang dipergunakan dalam penelitian ini merupakan kombinasi dari jurnal-jurnal yang ada di bab sebelumnya dalam penelitian ini dan disesuaikan dengan kondisi di daerah istimewa yogyakarta. dalam penelitian deang analisis pengaruh pertumbuhan ekonomi ... (prastowo) 25 et al (2010) memasukkan variabel pertumbuhan ekonomi, jumlah penduduk, dan perumahan sebagai variabel independen yang mempengaruhi lahan perkotaan. penelitian ini untuk menjelaskan hubungan antara lahan perkotaan dan pertumbuhan ekonomi. model penelitian ini adalah urban (urbani) sebagai fungsi dari pertumbuhan ekonomi (pdrbi), kepadatan penduduk (densityi), (perumahani). urbani = f(pdrbi, densityi, perumahani) 1) persamaan yang akan diestimasi dengan metoda ols dalam penelitian ini adalah: lnurbani = β0 + β1 lnpdrbi + β2 lndensityi + β3 perumahani + εi 2) keterangan: urbani : luas wilayah menurut jenis penggunaan tanah bangunan pekarangan pada kecamatan i. pdrbi : total pdrb atas harga dasar konstan 2000 pada kecamatan i. densityi : kepadatan penduduk pada kecamatan i. perumahani : jumlah perumahan pada kecamatan i. ei : error term jika data yang mengandung hubungan spasial, maka dapat melanggar asumsi yang mendasari ols. penggunaan ols dengan data yang memiliki hubungan spasial dapat menyebabkan baik untuk prosedur pengujian hipotesis inefisiensi dan tidak valid, atau bias dan tidak konsisten estimasi parameter sehingga analasis statistik spasial lebih tepat dilakukan untuk menjelaskan hubungan spasial (ord, 1975, anselin, 1995, florax dan vlist 2003). hubungan spasial dapat dimodelkan dalam berbagai cara. salah satu cara adalah nilai variabel dependen diamati pada lokasi tertentu sebagian ditentukan oleh beberapa fungsi dari nilai variabel dependen dari tetangganya. variabel mengukur efek ini biasanya dirumuskan sebagai rata-rata tertimbang spasial dari nilai tetangga variabel dependen, di mana tetangga ditentukan melalui penggunaan bobot spasial disebut matriks. pembobotan spasial matriks menggunakan software geoda, alat yang relevan untuk melakukan analisis spasial (anselin et al., 2006). secara khusus, model spasial lag dalam bentuk matriks diberikan oleh y = ρwy + xβ ε 3) di mana, y adalah n × 1 vektor variabel dependen, w adalah n × n matriks spasial bobot, yang menentukan tetangga yang digunakan dalam rata-rata (yang mengakibatkan jangka spasial lag, wy), ρ adalah skalar parameter spasial autoregressive, x adalah n × k matriks variabel independen, β adalah vektor cocok atau parameter, dan ε n × 1 vektor istilah kesalahan. dimasukkannya lag jangka spasial di sisi kanan persamaan dimotivasi oleh teori sebagai hasil keseimbangan proses interaksi sosial dan spasial. model ini tidak dapat diperkirakan dengan ols karena bias simultanitas. menurut ord (1975) maka harus diperkirakan dengan menggunakan maximum likehood (ml) teknik . cara lain untuk menggabungkan hubungan spasial adalah dengan pemodelan efek melalui ketergantungan spasial yang memasuki hubungan melalui istilah kesalahan. ketika akuntansi untuk ketergantungan spasial melalui istilah kesalahan, rekening model untuk situasi di mana kesalahan yang terkait dengan salah satu pengamatan secara spasial tertimbang rata-rata dari kesalahan, ditambah komponen kesalahan acak. secara khusus, model spasial error dalam bentuk matriks diberikan oleh y = xβ + ε di mana ε = λwε + u 4) di mana, ε adalah vektor istilah kesalahan spasial autocorrelated, u adalah vektor iid kesalahan, dan λ adalah parameter skalar yang dikenal sebagai koefisien autoregressive spasial jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 1, april 2016: 22-30 26 hasil dan pembahasan spatial autocorrelation tests untuk mencapai pemahaman yang lebih baik dari tingkat keterkaitan spasial dalam data, peneliti terlebih dahulu melakukan serangkaian diagnosa untuk menguji sejauh mana autokorelasi spasial dari variabel dependen (log dari wilayah urban) menggunakan moran’s i statistik. moran’s i statistik digunakan untuk menguji sejauh mana autikorekasi spatial dari variable dependen. analisis moran dilakukan dengan menghasilkan scatter plot dengan log dari daerah perkotaan pada sumbu horisontal dan lag spasial log dari daerah perkotaan (yaitu, log dari daerah perkotaan dari masingmasing tetangga pengamatan tertimbang oleh matriks bobot spasial) pada sumbu vertical (anselin, 1995). pada dasarnya, scatter plot menggambarkan global moran’s i, yang merupakan uji statistik yang umum digunakan untuk autokorelasi spasial. nilai i moran yang lebih besar dari 0 menunjukkan autokorelasi spasial yang positif (anselin et al., 2006). gambar 4. spatial autocorrelation scatter plot berdasarkan moran i uji statistik, ditemukan bahwa terdapat autokorelasi spasial, atau asosiasi spasial, penggunaan lahan perkotaan daerah istimewa yogyakarta tahun 2011 (gambar 4) dengan nilai moran i statistic sebesar 0,657603 yang menununjukkan bahwa terdapat asosiasi spasial yang tinggi. selanjutnya, dilakukan penilaian signifikansi statistik dari moran i dengan mengacak data melalui ruang dan menghitung nilai tunggal dari moran i statistik. p-nilai (gambar 5) menunjukkan bahwa nilai moran untuk tahun 2011 secara statistik signifikan. oleh karena itu, hasil penelitian menolak hipotesis nol bahwa tidak ada hubungan spasial dalam data. gambar 5. permutasi distribusi empiris untuk moran i specitication tests dari analisis moran i sudah dilakukan, kita sekarang tahu bahwa asosiasi spasial antara kecamatan tetangga dalam hal variabel dependen yaitu, log dari lahan perkotaan (lampiran gambar 6 dan/atau asosiasi spasial antara penjelasan variabel log dari pdrb (lampiran gambar 7) dapat mempengaruhi estimasi hubungan antara pdrb dan lahan perkotaan. sebelum model ini, pertama kita perlu mengetahui sifat ketergantungan spasial. untuk menentukan ini, peneliti melakukan serangkaian tes spesifikasi untuk menentukan dampak struktur tata ruang pada model regresi. secara khusus, menggunakan residual ols dan bobot spasial, kita melakukan lagrange multiplier (lm) uji autokorelasi error spasial dan spasial ketergantungan lag. uji lagrange multiplier (lm) adalah uji autokorelasi error spasial dan spasial ketergantungan lag untuk mengetahui sifat ketergantungan spasial. untuk mendeteksi autokorelasi digunaanalisis pengaruh pertumbuhan ekonomi ... (prastowo) 27 kan uji lagrange multiplier (lm test) (anselin, 1988, anselin dan rey, 1991). uji lm menunjukkan bahwa lag spasial campuran dan kesalahan model spasial sesuai dengan data terbaik (tabel 1). hasil tes lm lag menunjukkan signifikan, tetapi pada tes lm error tidak signifikan. untuk alasan ini, peneliti menggunakan model yang memperhitungkan efek spatial lag. tabel 1. diagnosis permasalahan spatial lag dan error test value prob. lagrange multiplier (lag) 4,9785690 0,0256632 robust lm (lag) 5,1185502 0,0236714 lagrange multiplier (error) 0,4348546 0,5096164 robust lm (error) 0,5748358 0,4483437 ajusted r2 0,859323 hasil regresi (tabel 2, kolom 2) memperlihatkan nilai adj. r-squared sebesar 0,859323 yang mengandung arti bahwa 85,9% variabelvariabel independen mampu menjelaskan variabel dependen dengan baik. tabel 2. hasil estimasi ols dan maximal likelihood model spatial lag (n=48; variable dependen: lnurban) variabel ols spatial lag c 6,139 (5,148853)** 0,2886739 (2,425284)** lnpdrb 0,6325156 (6,147876)** 0,5521351 5,672799** lndensity -0,9369987 (-16,03938)** -0,7351588 -7,577702** perumahan 0,020597 (2,824931)** 0,01831217 (2,797476)** w_lnurban 0,2886739 (2,495284)** adj. r-squared 0,859323 0,884389 keterangan : ** signifikan α = 5% sebaliknya, tabel 2 kolom 3 memperlihatkan nilai adj. r-squared sebesar 0,884389 yang mengandung arti bahwa 88,9% variabelvariabel independen mampu menjelaskan variabel dependen dengan baik. selain itu, koefisien autoregressive spasial (koefisien pada lag spasial variabel dependen) adalah positif (0,2886739) dan signifikan (z = 2,495284). ada beberapa perbedaan dalam koefisien koefisien regresi lainnya antara model lag spasial (tabel 2, kolom 3) dan ols (tabel 2, kolom 2). nilai koefisien pada analisis statistik spasial lebih kecil daripada analisis regresi ols. namun, yang paling penting, meskipun tanda dan tingkat signifikansi koefisien estimasi dari model ekonometrika spasial sebagian besar sama, besaran mereka menunjukkan sistematis tren penurunan dalam nilai absolut. selain itu, efek akibat ketergantungan spasial sekarang dijemput oleh koefisien dari variabel spasial tertinggal. ini berarti, bahwa dengan menggunakan analisis statistik spasial kita bisa lebih tepat mengestimasi koefisien dalam model. pdrb yang mencerminkan pertumbuhan ekonomi berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap penggunaan lahan perkotaan di wilayah perkotaan diy. nilai koefisien sebesar 0.632977 menunjukkan bahwa peningkatan 1 persen pdrb per kecamatan mengakibatkan perubahan penggunaan lahan perkotaan di wilayah perkotaan diy sebesar 0,6 persen. sementara itu, pdrb berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap penggunaan lahan perkotaan di wilayah perkotaan diy. nilai koefisien sebesar 0,5521351 menunjukkan bahwa peningkatan 1 persen pdrb per kecamatan mengakibatkan perubahan penggunaan lahan perkotaan di wilayah perkotaan diy sebesar 0,55 persen. seperti halnya penelitian deang et al (2010), temuannya menunjukkan bahwa perluasan lahan perkotaan sebesar 3 persen ketika perekonomian tumbuh sebesar 10 persen. sementara itu, konsekuensi dari pertumbuhan ekonomi dan perluasan perkotaan adalah sejumlah lahan pertanian telah terkonversi menjadi jalan beraspal dan bangunan tempat tinggal (tian et al, 2012).lahan pertanian di kawasan diy telah berubah fungsi penggunaannya dengan munculnya bangunan tempat tinggal, seperti perumahan. tabel 2 menunjurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 1, april 2016: 22-30 28 jukkan bahwa perumahan memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap penggunaan lahan perkotaan di wilayah perkotaan diy. kota yogyakarta sebagai pusat dari aktivitas ekonomi daerah istimewa yogyakarta mengalami keterbatasan ketersediaan lahan, baik untuk kegiatan ekonomi maupun tempat tinggal. terbatasnya ketersediaan lahan tersebut berimplikasi pada lahan di daerah sub urban atau pinggiran terjadi perubahan penggunaannya, salah satu contohnya lahan pertanian berubah menjadi bagunan tempat tinggal seperti munculnya perumahan. konsekuensi dari perubahan penggunaan lahan di daerah pinggiran kota yogyakarta yaitu secara tidak langsung terjadi perluasan lahan perkotan di daerah istimewa yogyakarta, khususnya di kecamatan-kecamatn yang berdekatan dengan kota yogyakarta. simpulan penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh pertumbuhan ekonomi terhadap penggunaan lahan perkotaan di kawasan perkotaan daerah istimewa yogyakarta. data penelitian merupakan data sekunder, yaitu data cross section kecamatan di kabupaten sleman, bantul, dan kota yogyakarta tahun 2011. sampel dalam penelitian ini adalah 48 kecamatan di kabupaten sleman, bantul, dan kota yogyakarta tahun 2011. analisis yang digunakan adalah statistik spasial. hasil analisis memperlihatkan pentingnya pertumbuhan pada wilayah perkotaan. selain itu, penggunaan lahan perkotaan meningkat sebesar 0,55 persen ketika pdrb sebagai proxy dari pertumbuhan ekonomi meningkat 1 persen. di sisi lain, kepadatan penduduk dan perumahan turut mempengaruhi penggunaan lahan perkotaan. penggunaan lahan perkotaan yang meningkat berimplikasi kepada terjadinya perluasan lahan perkotaan di daerah istimewa yogyakarta. berdasarkan kesimpulan di atas terdapat beberapa saran antara lain: pemerintah (pemerintah daerah istimewa yogyakarta, permerintah kabupaten sleman, pemerintah kabupaten bantul, dan pemerintah kota yogyakarta) dalam konteks pembangunan daerah tidak hanya fokus di pusat-pusat aktivitas ekonomi, tetapi memperhatikan daerah di sekitar pusat serta daerah yang jauh daerah pusat ekonomi untuk pemerataan pembangunan. selain itu, alat pemetaan wilayah yang selanjutnya dapat dijadikan sebagai dasar pengambilan kebijakan pembagunan daerah. sementara itu, untuk penyempurnaan penelitian ini diharapkan pada masa mendatang, penelitian tentang pertumbuhan ekonomi dan penggunaan lahan perkotaan perlu pengkajian terhadap dampak dari pembangunan ekonomi terhadap perluasan lahan perkotaan pada cakupan wilayah penelitian yang lebih luas. 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(2011). analyzing and modeling land use land cover (lulc) in the daqing city, china, applied geography, vol. 31, 600-608. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 1, april 2016: 22-30 30 lampiran gambar 6. local moran’s i dari lnlu gambar 7. lisa cluster map lnpdrb jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 21 nomor 1, april 2020 article type: research paper external debt, exchange rate, and unemployment in selected asean countries malik cahyadin* and lely ratwianingsih abstract: this research examines the empirical model of external debt, exchange rate, and unemployment in selected asean countries during 1980-2017. the countries included indonesia, malaysia, thailand and the philippines. the data were collected from the world bank publications. the ardl-ecm and granger causality test (gct) were employed to address the research objectives. the findings indicated that there were short-term effects on each empirical model (external debt, exchange rate, and unemployment). furthermore, the stability test exhibited that the models were precise and stable. the gct result showed that there was a causal between external debt, exchange rate, and unemployment, especially in indonesia. moreover, the linkages between external debt, exchange rate, and unemployment in selected asean countries were comovement. therefore, the governments are expected to emphasis on macroeconomic policies, such as pro-stability of the exchange rate, external debt risk management, and pro-poor. keywords: external debt; exchange rate; unemployment; macroeconomic policy. jel classification: f31, f34, j60. introduction some developing and developed countries face an increase in external debt as a source of development financing. the low level of external debt is expected to maintain the stability of domestic economic and fiscal sustainability. for example, in 2016, the world bank showed that united state, united kingdom, and japan had a ratio of public debt to gdp above 100%. in contrast, the countries, such as indonesia malaysia, thailand, and the philippines, have a ratio of public debt to gdp below 60%. empirically, malaysia showed that the risk of a high level of public debt could impact negatively on fiscal sustainability and the domestic economy (baharumshah, soon, & lau, 2017). this condition proves that external debt contributes significantly to the country's macroeconomic indicators. therefore, this research emphasizes the estimation and the relationship between external debt, exchange rate, and unemployment. besides, unemployment is one of the important macroeconomic indicators in the asean region, besides economic growth. the high level of unemployment leads to high level of public and private debt to generate business cycle of industry and absorb labour. affiliation: faculty of economics and business, universitas sebelas maret (uns), surakarta. indonesia. *correspondence: malikcahyadin@gmail.com this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.21.1.5029 citation: cahyadin, m., & ratwianingsih, l. (2020). external debt, exchange rate, and unemployment in selected asean countries. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 21(1), 16-36. article history received: 20 january 2020 reviewed: 3 february 2020 14 april 2020 revised: 17 april 2020 23 april 2020 accepted: 17 april 2020 mailto:malikcahyadin@gmail.com http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/8055 https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp cahyadin & ratwianingsih external debt, exchange rate, and unemployment in selected asean countries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 17 external debt and exchange rate can be a credible economic indicator to enlighten a country’s domestic economy. there are some economic variables related to those indicators. nelasco (2012) explained that the external debt in south asian countries tends to increase due to some defining factors, such as population, fdi, international reserve, exchange rate, gdp per capita, gni per capita, export, and import. meanwhile, ramasamy and abar (2015) identified the factors affecting the exchange rate, namely: interest rate, inflation rate, the balance of payment, employment rate, corruption index, gdp, budget surplus/deficit, tax, and borrowing. besides, inflation, debt, and exchange rate have a good relationship both in the shortand long-run (yien, abdullah & azzam, 2017). therefore, third world countries need to ensure the availability and the continuity of debt management by strengthening some aspects like the institutions, human resources, law, and strategy (mahmud, 2018). four asean countries – indonesia, malaysia, thailand, and the philippines – undergo an increasing external debt over time. furthermore, they also go through a fluctuating exchange rate and unemployment. this phenomenon becomes one of the motivations of this research. in addition, three steps of estimations would be executed. the first step was estimating the empirical model of external debt, exchange rate, and unemployment in selected asean countries under ardl-ecm. the second step was examining the fitted value of the empirical model of external debt, exchange rate, and unemployment. finally, the granger causality test (gct) was utilized to estimate the link between the fitted value of external debt, exchange rate, and unemployment. thus, this research attempt to employ multi-step estimations. to our best knowledge, the multi-step estimations on external debt, exchange rate, and unemployment in asean countries were not used by the previous studies. the empirical research by abdoh, yusuf, zulkifli, bulot, and ibrahim (2016) identified that export had a significant effect on the exchange rate, while interest rate and inflation had an insignificant impact. a different result was obtained by parveen, khan, and ismail (2012), they found that economic growth, inflation, export, and import have a significant effect on the exchange rate. meanwhile, patel, patel, and patel (2014) described that exchange rate could be influenced by inflation, interest rate, capital account balance, the role of speculators, cost of manufacture, the debt of the country, gross domestic product, political stability and economic performance, employment, the relative strength of other currencies, macroeconomic, and geopolitical events. thus, this research identifies that the exchange rate in asean is influenced by export, interest rate, inflation, and external debt. another empirical research such as awan, anjum, and rahim (2015) explained that in the long-run, the external debt was determined by the fiscal deficit, trade openness, and exchange rate. in contrast, in the short-run, the external debt was influenced by trade openness, exchange rate, and external debt. abdullahi, bakar, and hasan (2015) described that external debt was influenced by the exchange rate, interest rate, saving, and budget deficit both in the shortand long-run. the empirical findings are supported by mupunga and roux (2014), and lau and lee (2016). therefore, this research determines that the cahyadin & ratwianingsih external debt, exchange rate, and unemployment in selected asean countries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 18 external debt in selected asean countries can be affected by interest rate, exchange rate, and national saving. dalmar, ali, and ali (2017) have conducted empirical research on the determinants of unemployment. the findings showed that unemployment was influenced significantly by gross domestic product (gdp), population growth, and external debt. moreover, the gross capital formation and exchange rate were insignificant. besides, puspadjuita (2018) explained that the unemployment rate was significantly affected by the proportion of high school and above workforce, while the urbanization rate, industrialization rate, elasticity of labour absorption, and provincial minimum wage had an insignificant effect. thus, this research analyses the effect of gdp growth, exchange rate, and external debt on unemployment in selected asean countries. the main objective of this research is to estimate the linkage between external debt, exchange rate, and unemployment in selected asean countries during 1980-2017. moreover, the main findings of the first step of analysis in this research showed that (a) external debt in asean countries was determined by real interest rate, exchange rate, and national saving, (b) exchange rate in asean countries were affected by total export, real interest rate, external debt, and inflation, and (c) unemployment in asean countries was determined by economic growth, exchange rate, and external debt. all findings are supported by previous empirical studies. it means that this research was only using a different method in the form of ardl-ecm compared to the previous empirical studies. in contrast, this research employed the next step of analysis using the granger causality test between the fitted value of external debt, exchange rate, and unemployment. the second analysis indicated that there was a causal between variables. thus, the finding becomes a broader analysis compared to the previous study. figure 1 illustrates indonesia, malaysia, thailand, and philippine’s external debt growth. generally, external debt growth in all countries was fluctuating. the external debt in malaysia and thailand was relatively significant. both countries should concern about managing and controlling external debt growth to reduce a negative impact on the domestic economy. figure 1 external debt growth in asean 4, 1981-2016 (%) source: the world bank (processed) cahyadin & ratwianingsih external debt, exchange rate, and unemployment in selected asean countries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 19 figure 2 describes the growth of the exchange rate and the unemployment rate in asean4. the trend of growth rate showed fluctuation. the exchange rate fluctuations in indonesia, the philippines, and thailand led to the depreciation of the us dollar. exchange rate depreciation would risk the domestic economy under the weak fundamental of macro-economy, such as the high unemployment rate, inflation, and deficit of the balance of payments. meanwhile, the exchange rate in malaysia was quite stable. however, the exchange rate in malaysia (rm/us$) led to a state depreciation. the unemployment in selected asean countries is relatively fluctuating but tends to decline. indonesia and thailand have a relatively high unemployment rate. the governments of those countries need to observe this phenomenon properly. the macro and micro-economy indicators driving unemployment should be adequately managed. besides, the high unemployment rate will be a burden for the governments to increase the domestic economy significantly and continually. note: idn = indonesia, mys = malaysia, phl = the philippines, tha = thailand, er = exchange rate, ue = unemployment rate figure 2. exchange rate (local currency/us$) and unemployment rate (%), 1980-2016 source: the world bank cahyadin & ratwianingsih external debt, exchange rate, and unemployment in selected asean countries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 20 this research contributes to the existing literature in several ways. firstly, three empirical models exhibited the effect of explanatory variables on external debt, exchange rate, and unemployment in selected asean countries during 1980-2017. secondly, ardl-ecm and granger causality test were employed to address the research objectives. finally, this research exhibited the linkage in the form of co-movement between external debt, exchange rate, and unemployment. it would show the co-movement or countermovement of those variables during research periods. therefore, the contributions are also directed to the macroeconomic policy that should support three policy issues, such as external debt risk management, exchange rate stability, and pro-poor (control of unemployment rate). research method previous empirical studies fiscal policy is emphasized to encourage the government's ability to obtain adequate and sustainable development of funding sources. fiscal instruments that can be employed are tax revenues and external debt (especially public debt). furthermore, the value of external debt will be closely related to exchange rate fluctuations. it will imply the government's fiscal policy because the government uses foreign currencies, especially us dollars, in external debt contracts. moreover, the level of external debt and exchange rate fluctuations have implications for the unemployment rate because those indicators will be utilized in production factors in the form of additional cash flow for industry and government programs for the national project. a productive external debt and stability of the exchange rate can promote a significant reduction in the unemployment rate. the research conducted by faini and gressani (1998) identifies that the external debt burdens the philippines’ fiscal. this burden should be reduced and compensated by the stable exchange rate for the anti-inflation and pro-growth policy. siregar and pontines (2005) described that the exchange rate was affected by the term of trade, government expenditure, and productivity. both types of research emphasize the vital role of fiscal in determining external debt. one example of the debt policy is the management and control of external debt for the productive sector. furthermore, neaime (2009) explained the critical role of exchange rate and debt management policy. some economic indicators were used to measure and manage debt ratio to the export, current account ratio to the export, debt ratio to the gdp, export, import, and interest rate. meanwhile, benigno and romei (2012) argued that there were two economic instruments used to control the rate and effect of external debt to the domestic economy, both in the shortand long-term; those instruments were the exchange rate and real interest rate. therefore, this research focus on the analysis of external debt determinants in selected asean countries under the ardl-ecm estimation. furthermore, this research would find that the effect of interest rate, exchange rate, and national saving on external debt may vary between selected asean countries. cahyadin & ratwianingsih external debt, exchange rate, and unemployment in selected asean countries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 21 the empirical researches on the correlation and effects of exchange rate on external debt have been estimated by fida, khan, and sohall (2012), bunescu (2014), couharde, rey and sallenave (2015), draz and ahmad (2015), nwanne and richard (2015), odera (2015), saheed, sani, and idakwoji (2015), and asonuma (2016). the effects of the variables could occur both in the shortand long-run. therefore, the policymakers in the monetary or fiscal authorities should manage the external debt and maintain the stability of the exchange rate. hence, this research will analyse the causality between external debt and exchange rate in asean 4 using granger causality test (gct). the causality results can be classified into three categories, namely: unidirectional, no causality, or bidirectional. this step of analysis becomes the novelty of this research compared to the previous empirical studies. moreover, the determinant factors of the exchange rate in selected asean countries include export, interest rate, inflation, and external debt. frenkel and ros (2006) revealed that the exchange rate brought a significant effect on unemployment in latin america. this result is relevant to the research conducted by chang and shen (2011), floyd (2012), and he (2013). the correlation and effect between the exchange rate on unemployment can be referred from nyahokwe and newadi (2013), and ogonna, idenyi, ifeyinwa, and gabriel (2016). nyahokwe and newadi (2016), who explained that the exchange rate had a significant effect on unemployment in south africa. furthermore, ogonna et al. (2016) indicated that public debt had a significant impact on unemployment in the long term. in contrast, aurangzeb and asif (2013) analysed the effect of inflation, gdp, exchange rate, and population on the unemployment in pakistan, india, and china. the result indicated that all independent variables had significant effects on unemployment in those countries. thus, this research would focus on the estimate of the impact of gdp growth, exchange rate, and external debt on unemployment in selected asean countries. ardl-ecm would be employed. besides, this research also used the granger causality test (gct) to analyse the causality between exchange rate and unemployment, external debt, and unemployment in selected asean countries. dataset this research utilized secondary data from the world bank publications during 1980-2017. the data were used to estimate the equations of external debt, exchange rate, and unemployment in asean 4. the year 1980 was chosen as the initial period of research because, at that time, the asean member countries were still pushing for improvement in domestic economic conditions, primarily related to poverty, unemployment, and inequality as well as energy availability/investment problems (akrasanee, 1981). moreover, the asean member countries chosen as the focus of this research were indonesia, malaysia, thailand, and the philippines. those countries were categorized as developing countries that made great efforts to stimulate economic growth through external debt. the description of the research variables can be seen in table 1. those variables were written in symbols to simplify the writing in the ardl-ecm model and granger causality test. the real external debt variable was symbolized with red, while the exchange rate cahyadin & ratwianingsih external debt, exchange rate, and unemployment in selected asean countries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 22 and unemployment were represented with er and uer, respectively. furthermore, the variables of total export, real interest rate, inflation, real national saving, and gdp growth were signified with x, rir, inf, rns, and gdpg, respectively. the four asean countries (indonesia, malaysia, thailand, and the philippines) were denoted with ind, mys, tha, and phl. table 1 description of research variables variables description measurement /unit total external debt total external debt is debt owed to non-residents repayable in currency, goods, or services. total external debt is the sum of public, publicly guaranteed, and private nonguaranteed long-term debt, use of imf credit, and short-term debt. short-term debt includes all debt having an original maturity of one year or less and an interest in arrears on long-term debt. data are in current u.s. dollars. real external debt total external debt/consumer price index. consumer price index reflects changes in the cost to the average consumer of acquiring a basket of goods and services that may be fixed or changed at specified intervals, such as yearly. the laspeyres formula is generally used (consumer price index; 2010 = 100). data are in constant u.s. dollars. exchange rate the official exchange rate refers to the exchange rate determined by national authorities or to the rate specified in the legally sanctioned exchange market. it is calculated as an annual average based on monthly averages (local currency units relative to the u.s. dollar). idr/usd, myr/usd; thb/usd; and php/usd unemploy ment rate unemployment, total (% of the total labour force) (national estimate). unemployment refers to the share of the labour force that is without work but available for and seeking employment. per cent (%). total export exports of goods and services (constant 2010 us$). exports of goods and services represent the value of all goods and other market services provided to the rest of the world. they include the value of merchandise, freight, insurance, transport, travel, royalties, license fees, and other services, such as communication, construction, financial, information, business, personal, and government services. they exclude compensation of employees and investment income (formerly called factor services) and transfer payments. data are in constant u.s. dollars. real interest rate the real interest rate is the lending interest rate adjusted for inflation as measured by the gdp deflator. the terms and conditions attached to lending rates differ by country, however, limiting their comparability. per cent (%). inflation inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, reflects the annual percentage change in the cost to the average consumer of acquiring a basket of goods and services that may be fixed or changed at specified intervals, such as yearly. the laspeyres formula is generally used. per cent (%). total national saving net national savings are equal to gross national savings less than the value of consumption of fixed capital. net national saving is in current u.s. dollars. real national saving total national saving/consumer price index. the laspeyres formula is generally used (consumer price index; 2010 = 100). net national saving is in constant u.s. dollars. gdp growth the annual percentage growth rate of gdp at market prices based on constant local currency. aggregates are based on constant 2010 u.s. dollars. gdp is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products. it is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or depletion and degradation of natural resources. per cent (%). source: the world bank and author data set cahyadin & ratwianingsih external debt, exchange rate, and unemployment in selected asean countries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 23 ardl-ecm was formulated to explain the effect of explanatory variables of the equation of external debt, exchange rate, and unemployment. the empirical model of the exchange rate can be seen in parveen et al., (2012), patel et al., (2014) and abdoh, et al. (2016). meanwhile, the empirical model of the external debt refers to mupunga and roux (2014); awan et al., (2015); abdullahi et al., (2015); and lau and lee (2016). furthermore, the empirical model of unemployment has been conducted by dalmar et al., (2017) and puspadjuita (2018). the basic model of ardl-ecm has been developed by pesaran and shin (1995). in addition, pesaran, shin, and smith (2001) have also developed an analysis of bounds test to ardl equation. all research variables would take part in a stationarity test (unit-roots) by employing the augmented dickey-fuller (adf) and phillips-perron (pp) test (maddala and kim, 2004). the last step of ardl analysis is the stability test using cusum and cusumq (pesaran and pesaran, 1997 in alimi, 2014). however, the explanation of the co-movement and counter-movement between external debt, exchange rate, and unemployment utilized the result of the ardl-ecm estimation and granger causality test. the basic granger causality test (gct) model refers to gujarati and porter (2009). the definition of co-movement is the movement of external debt, exchange rate, and unemployment contribute positively to each other. for example, if the exchange rate undergoes appreciation, then the external debt of the asean 4 countries tends to decrease. moreover, if the unemployment decreases, then the external debt burden of the asean 4 countries decreases. besides, if the exchange rate is appreciated, unemployment tends to decrease. meanwhile, the definition of countermovement is the negative contributing conditions between external debt, exchange rate, and unemployment in asean 4. the ardl-ecm estimation equations of external debt, exchange rate, and unemployment are shown in equations 1a, 1b, 1c, respectively: t1-t41-t31-t21-t1i-t n 1i ii-t n 1i ii-t n 1i i1-t n 1i it rnserrirredrnseerdrircredbred  +++++++++=  ==== a (1a) t1-t51-t41-t31-t21-t1i-t n 1i ii-t n 1i ii-t n 1i ii-t n 1i i1-t n 1i it redinfrirxerredfinferirdxcerber  +++++++++++=  ===== a (1b) t1-t41-t31-t21-t1i-t n 1i ii-t n 1i ii-t n 1i i1-t n 1i it redergdpguerredeerdgdpgcuerbuer  +++++++++=  ==== a (1c) the δ explains the change in the value of variables. furthermore, ɑ is the constants or intercept of the ardl-ecm model, while b, c, d, e, f, and β are the coefficients/parameters of independent variables. the “t” is the research period from 1980-2017, and ε is the error term of ardl-ecm. cahyadin & ratwianingsih external debt, exchange rate, and unemployment in selected asean countries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 24 the three equations can be formulated into ardl estimation models, as follows (equation 2a, 2b, and 2c): ti-t n 1i ii-t n 1i ii-t n 1i ii-t n 1i it rnseerdrircredbred +++++=  ==== a 2a ti-t n 1i ii-t n 1i ii-t n 1i ii-t n 1i ii-t n 1i it redfinferirdxcerber ++++++=  ===== a 2b ti-t n 1i ii-t n 1i ii-t n 1i ii-t n 1i it redeerdgdpgcuerbuer +++++=  ==== a 2c the three ardl equations show the long-run relationship of research variables in asean 4. based on equations 1a, 1b, and 1c, an ecm estimation model can be formulated for the external debt, exchange rate, and unemployment equations in asean 4. the ecm model illustrates the short-term relationship of each equation (3a, 3b, 3c), as follows: t1-t5i-t n 1i 4ii-t n 1i 3ii-t n 1i 2ii-t n 1i 1it ectrnserrirredred  ++++++=  ==== a 3a t1-t6 n 1i i-t5ii-t n 1i 4ii-t n 1i 3ii-t n 1i 2ii-t n 1i 1it ectredinfrirxerer  +++++++=  ===== a 3b t1-t5 n 1i i-t4ii-t n 1i 3ii-t n 1i 2ii-t n 1i 1it ectredergdpgueruer  ++++++=  ==== a 3c the γ is the coefficient/parameter of the independent variables. meanwhile, ect is the error correction term of the short-term ecm model. the value of γ5 should be negative and significant. the final stage of the analysis in this research was the granger causality test (gct). based on the basic gct model in gujarati and porter (2009), the gct models between external debt, exchange rate, and unemployment in asean 4 are as follows: t1 n 1k k-t ^ k n 1j j-t ^ ji-t n 1i ^ it ^ reduererred  +++=  === 4 t2 n 1k k-t ^ k n 1j j-t ^ ji-t n 1i ^ it ^ reduererer  +++=  === 5 t3 n 1k k-t ^ k n 1j j-t ^ ji-t n 1i ^ it ^ reduereruer  +++=  === 6 cahyadin & ratwianingsih external debt, exchange rate, and unemployment in selected asean countries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 25 the “^” symbol on top of the variables in equations 4, 5, and 6 is the fitted value (ft). ft was obtained from the ardl equations, namely: equation 2a for the fitted value of external debt, equation 2b for the fitted value of exchange rate, and equation 2c for the fitted value of the unemployment rate. result and discussion the first procedure of time series data analysis was the unit-roots test. this test was conducted to identify the stationarity of data. the results of the unit-roots test are illustrated in table 2. based on table 2, it can be inferred that the eight variables in indonesia have been stationary at the first difference, both from the adf and pp results. meanwhile, the other three variables have been stationary at level. these results also occurred in the research variables of thailand and the philippines. furthermore, there were only six stationary variables of malaysia at the first difference based on adf, seven stationary variables at the first difference based on pp, and the remaining have been stationary at a level from the result of adf or pp. the further testing step of research variables was the cointegration test under the ardl bound test. the result can be seen in table 3. the basic test of the bound test can refer to pesaran et al., (2001). the finding showed that the estimation of the external debt equation (equation 2a), the exchange rate (equation 2b), and unemployment (equation 2c) in asean 4 were significant. it explained that the research variables of the three equations had been cointegrated. thus, it implied that there was a long-run relationship among variables. table 4 describes the ardl estimation result of the external debt equation in asean 4. the external debt in indonesia was influenced by the lagged external debt, interest rate, lagged exchange rate, national saving, and lagged national saving. the result confirmed that the current external debt value was influenced by the previous external debt period. other than that, the depreciation of the idr/usd exchange rate would impact the increase of the external debt value. furthermore, insufficient national savings for domestic investment would stimulate external debt policies. it means that the rise in national saving in indonesia would reduce external debt. the estimation results also occurred in the equation of the external debt of malaysia, thailand, and the philippines. however, external debt in the philippines was not significantly influenced by the exchange rate. based on the data of the world bank, the external debt value of the philippines tended to decrease in the period of this research. fakhrunnas total financing of islamic rural banks and regional macroeconomic factors: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 26 table 2 unit root test results of research variables in indonesia, malaysia, thailand, and the philippines augmented dickey-fuller (adf) test phillips-perron (pp) test level first difference level first difference intercept intercept and trend intercept intercept and trend intercept intercept and trend intercept intercept and trend indonesia erind -0.57541 -2.84241 -7.15884* -7.08668* -1.50738 -2.87959 -7.18357* -7.11111* xind -2.59538 -2.64733 -4.64679* -4.66838* -2.46725 -2.88714 -4.55795* -4.57856* rirind -5.67136* -5.7664* -5.66502* -5.75623* infind -5.00574* -5.02189* -5.00574* -5.02189* redind -1.05463 -1.94394 -4.08276* -4.06387** -1.05365 -1.76556 -4.15807* -4.14344** rnsind -1.76087 -1.84419 -6.17848* -6.09013* -1.73474 -1.82143 -6.17848* -6.09013* uerind -0.87534 0.16535 -3.51215** -2.84456 -1.03226 -0.04343 -3.49773** -3.77541** gdpgind -4.59757* -4.51361* -4.61027* -4.5275* ^(erind) -1.20603 -2.530413 -6.325985* -6.198388* -1.004047 -2.530413 -6.543851* -6.418461* ^(redind) -0.849923 -1.021579 -3.808097* -3.765992** -0.995953 -1.48694 -3.808097* -3.765992** ^(uerind) -1.713447 0.507276 -3.435516** -4.270208* -1.438154 -0.015311 -3.49881** -4.290007* malaysia ermys -0.86389 -1.79245 -4.84012* -4.78884* -1.01386 -2.0101 -4.84640* -4.79482* xmys -1.21074 -0.48935 -5.09034* -5.28836* -1.21074 -0.48935 -5.09461* -5.26699* rirmys -6.43176* -7.60170* -6.43176* -7.36353* infmys -3.70816* -3.63675** -3.58832* -3.50763** redmys 0.74269 -1.00636 -5.27106* -5.50066* 0.69948 -1.04749 -5.26546* -5.49797* rnsmys -1.31871 -2.28932 -6.03730* -5.98264* -1.29738 -2.47334 -6.05488* -6.00082* uermys -1.09890 -3.86741** -4.17300* -4.06069* -1.14962 -1.32842 -4.11341* -4.06069* gdpgmys -4.90324* -4.94693* -4.91807* -4.96297* ^(ermys) -2.223912 -2.49038 -2.58391 -2.393146 -4.45533* -4.47359* -21.0302* -21.4196* ^(redmys) 0.610935 -1.716146 -4.828441* -4.988879* 0.610935 -1.716146 -4.842785* -5.001428* ^(uermys) -3.262918** -3.31140*** -9.157963* -8.976694* thailand ertha -1.65753 -1.39315 -4.94339* -4.95130* -1.74809 -1.63554 -4.93894* -4.94184* xtha -0.3692 -2.67658 -5.90189* -5.81553* -0.31010 -2.79665 -6.07364* -5.98993* rirtha -2.17197 -4.20196** -2.15876 -4.20096** inftha -5.90445* -5.78143* -5.95613* -5.94797* cahyadin & ratwianingsih external debt, exchange rate, and unemployment in selected asean countries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 27 augmented dickey-fuller (adf) test phillips-perron (pp) test level first difference level first difference intercept intercept and trend intercept intercept and trend intercept intercept and trend intercept intercept and trend redtha -2.10064 -2.36443 -3.22868** -3.19081*** -1.77130 -1.84529 -3.22868** -3.19081*** rnstha -2.53644 -2.97492 -3.72117* -3.66380** -1.51594 -1.84547 -3.81571* -3.76079** uertha -2.52866 -3.96824** -6.98936* -6.96808* -2.67251*** -3.90476** -7.26529* -7.24464* gdpgtha -3.17463** -3.56965** -3.17444** -3.58876** ^(ertha) -3.780326** -3.805534** -6.95908* -6.822821* -3.780326** -3.817048** -10.78667* -10.70308* ^(redtha) -4.364491* 1.787678 -5.128845* -2.99452 -10.76465* -6.480503* -4.975655* -6.08704* ^(uertha) -1.953804 -2.871546 -5.654628* -5.56234* -1.711567 -2.841266 -5.758768* -5.753359* philippines erphl -1.54176 -1.24909 -4.67230* -4.74921* -1.50739 -1.54236 -4.74037* -4.79813* xphl -1.54176 -1.24909 -4.67230* -4.74921* -1.50739 -1.54236 -4.74037* -4.79813* rirphl -6.1411* -6.13953* -6.14264* -6.21740* infphl -2.78286*** -0.89667 -3.89847* -7.48551* redphl -2.43123 -1.81413 -4.24179* -4.63187* -4.91550* -1.69755 -4.16947* -6.01226* rnsphl -0.33817 -3.67139** -3.65974* -4.52779* -0.97924 -7.32705* -3.63123* -4.59842* uerphl -0.90941 -1.91247 -5.84677* -6.09993* -2.67892*** -3.42952*** -12.84930* -13.70938* gdpgphl -3.23213** -5.87803* -3.29671** -4.82897* ^(erphl) -1.330296 -1.755714 -3.985722* -4.005474* -1.325743 -1.656696 -3.987194* -4.005809* ^(redphl) -3.119157** -2.378158 -5.079375* -5.225188* -3.948421* -2.39248 -5.076459* -5.333937* ^(uerphl) -1.060146 -1.729828 -11.06202* -10.89954* -1.897426 -3.799912** -11.67886* -11.46349* source: secondary data (processed) note: 1. mackinnon (1996) *α = 1%; **α = 5%; and ***α = 10% 2. max. lag is 9 based on schwarz information criterion 3. description: er = exchange rate (lcu/usd); x = total export (usd); rir = real interest rate (%); red = to tal external debt/ihk (usd); rns = total national saving/ihk (usd); uer = unemployment rate (%); gdpg = gdp growth (%); inf = inflation (%); ^(red) = fitted value of estimation result from eq. 2a; ^(er) = fitted value of estimation result from eq. 2b; ^(uer) = fitted value of estimation result from eq. 2c; ind = indonesia; mys = malaysia; tha = thailand; and phl = philippines . fakhrunnas total financing of islamic rural banks and regional macroeconomic factors: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 28 table 3 ardl bound test of indonesia, malaysia, thailand, and the philippines indonesia malaysia thailand philippines equation 2a f-statistic k f-statistic k f-statistic k f-statistic k 3.431131 3 22.27799 3 10.40904 3 16.92378 3 equation 2b f-statistic k f-statistic k f-statistic k f-statistic k 0.942223 4 4.751374 4 29.89509 4 3.225511 4 equation 2c f-statistic k f-statistic k f-statistic k f-statistic k 3.51776 3 12.3331 3 9.252666 3 4.079481 3 critical value bounds significance i0 bound i1 bound 10% 2.72 3.77 5% 3.23 4.35 2.50% 3.69 4.89 1% 4.29 5.61 source: secondary data (processed) table 4 ardl estimation of factors affecting external debt in asean 4 countries dependent var. independent var./significant indonesia redind redind(-1)*; redind(-2)**; redind(-3)**; redind(-4)***; rirind**; erind(-1)**; erind(-3)**; rnsind*; rnsind(-1)*; rnsind(-2)** f-statistic 160.2296* adjusted r2 0.989129 malaysia redmys redmys(-1)*; redmys(-3)*; redmys(-4)*; rirmys(-1)**; ermys*; ermys(-1)***; ermys(-4)*; rnsmys(-1)**; rnsmys(-3)*; rnsmys(-4)* f-statistic 565.2941* adjusted r2 0.996908 thailand redtha redtha(-1)*; rirtha(-1)**; rirtha(-2)**; rirtha(-3)*; ertha*; rnstha(-2)**; rnstha(-4)** f-statistic 57.47605* adjusted r2 0.970222 philippines redphl c*; redphl(-1)*; rirphl**; rirphl(-3)***; rnsphl***; rnsphl(-4)** f-statistic 118.7267* adjusted r2 0.980954 source: secondary data (processed) note: a. dependent variable = redind; redmys; redtha; and redphl (see appendix, table a) b. sig. * α=1%; ** α =5%; *** α =10% table 5 ardl estimation of factors affecting exchange rate in asean 4 countries dependent var. independent var./significant indonesia erind xind***; rirind***; infind*** f-statistic 47.01245 adjusted r2 0.97402 malaysia ermys ermys(-1)*; ermys(-2)**; xmys*; xmys(-3)*; xmys(-4)*; rirmys***; rirmys(2)*; rirmys(-3)*; infmys**; infmys(-1)***; infmys(-3)**; infmys(-4)* f-statistic 161.9983* adjusted r2 0.993028 thailand ertha xtha***; xtha(-3)**; rirtha(-1)**; rirtha(-3)***; rirtha(-4)**; inftha***; inftha(-1)**; redtha**; redtha(-1)*** f-statistic 35.23235* adjusted r2 0.961010 philippines erphl c*; erphl(-1)*; xphl*; xphl(-1)*; rirphl(-1)*; rirphl(-2)*; redphl*; redphl(-4)** f-statistic 128.4036* adjusted r2 0.980465 source: secondary data (processed) note: a. dependent variable = erind; ermys; ertha; and erphl (see appendix, table b) b. sig. * α=1%; ** α =5%; *** α =10% cahyadin & ratwianingsih external debt, exchange rate, and unemployment in selected asean countries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 29 the exchange rate growth in asean 4 was also related to domestic indicators and external debt policies. based on table 5, the exchange rate in indonesia is influenced by export, interest rate, and inflation. this condition also occurred in the exchange rate equation of malaysia, thailand, and the philippines. however, the exchange rates in the three countries were also influenced by the lagged variable of export, interest rate, and external debt. furthermore, the exchange rate in the philippines was also influenced by the lagged variable of the exchange rate. the estimation result indicated that the exchange appreciation and depreciation in asean 4 were determined not only by domestic transaction/economic conditions but also by policies and foreign economic transactions of each asean member. however, the estimation of the unemployment equation in asean 4 is explained in table 6. unemployment in indonesia was influenced by the lagged variable of unemployment, economic growth, exchange rate, and external debt. the estimation results also occurred in the unemployment equation in malaysia, thailand, and the philippines. it means that the economic growth in asean 4 has not been able to stimulate a decline in sustainable unemployment. besides, the appreciation and depreciation value of the exchange rate also had an impact on the unemployment rate. therefore, the exchange rate stability in the asean region is expected to reduce the unemployment rate. moreover, the external debt policies by the asean countries are also expected to be utilized to reducing the unemployment rate through productive investment. table 6 ardl estimation of factors affecting unemployment in asean 4 countries dependent var. independent var./significant indonesia uerind uerind(-1)*; gdpgind(-1)**; gdpgind(-4)*; erind***; erind(-1)**; erind(-4)**; redind* f-statistic 56.65208* adjusted r2 0.961461 malaysia uermys c***; uermys(-2)***; uermys(-4)**; gdpgmys(-3)***; ermys(-2)***; redmys(-4)*** f-statistic 130.0718* adjusted r2 0.991465 thailand uertha c*; uertha(-3)***; gdpgtha(-1)**; gdpgtha(-2)**; ertha(-4)** f-statistic 9.262903* adjusted r2 0.794798 philippines uerphl c**; uerphl(-1)**; uerphl(-2)*; gdpgphl(-3)*; erphl**; erphl(1)***; erphl(-2)*; erphl(-3)*; erphl(-4)*; redphl**; redphl(-1)**; redphl(-4)*** f-statistic 18.38879 adjusted r2 0.911539 source: secondary data (processed) note: a. dependent variable = uerind; uermys; uertha; and uerphl (see appendix, table c) b. sig. * α=1%; ** α =5%; *** α =10% cahyadin & ratwianingsih external debt, exchange rate, and unemployment in selected asean countries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 30 table 7 ecm estimation of factors affecting external debt in asean 4 countries dependent var. independent var./significant indonesia redind d(redind(-2))**; d(redind(-3))***; d(rirind)*; d(rirind(1))*; d(erind(-2))**; d(rnsind)*; d(rnsind(-1)**; ect(-1). ect(-1) has a negative sign but not significant. malaysia redmys d(redmys(-3))*; d(rnsmys(-2))*; d(rnsmys(-3))**; ect(1)* thailand redtha d(rnstha(-1))**; d(rnstha(-3))**; ect(-1)* philippines redphl d(rnsphl)**; d(rnsphl(-3))**; ect(-1)* source: secondary data (processed) note: a. dependent variable = redind; redmys; redtha; and redphl (see appendix, table d) b. long-run coefficient (cointeq): 1. indonesia; cointeq = redind (127111212.8597*rirind + 37414.2218*erind +3.2351*rnsind + 85174821.8961) 2. malaysia; cointeq = redmys (44270512.1281*rirmys -7194637.4241*ermys +5.9761*rnsmys 411543399.8824) 3. thailand; cointeq = redtha (81751912.5232*rirtha -13758849.4414*ertha +4.4317*rnstha 567039017.7702) 4. philippines; cointeq = redphl (1085033.1695*rirphl -5218884.0436*erphl-0.1933*rnsphl + 1047758733.6311 ) c. sig. * α=1%; ** α =5%; *** α =10% this research also used the ecm method to examine the short-term effect of the external debt, exchange rate, and unemployment equation in asean 4. table 7 describes the estimation result of the external debt equation in asean 4. the external debt in indonesia was influenced by changes in external debt value, changes in interest rate, change in the exchange rate, and exchange in national saving value. this estimation result was different from the estimation of the external debt equation in malaysia, thailand, and the philippines. for example, in the short term, the external debt in malaysia was influenced by lagged of external debt and national savings. meanwhile, in the short term, the exchange rate in thailand and the philippines was influenced by national saving and lagged national saving. the variable in the ecm equation that formed the equation was ect. the ect(-1) value of the external debt equation of the three countries was negative and significant. table 8 ecm estimation of factors affecting exchange rate in asean 4 countries dependent var. independent var./significant indonesia erind d(xind)***; d(rirind)***; d(infind)***; ect(-1). ect(-1) has a negative sign but not significant. malaysia ermys d(ermys(-1))**; d(xmys)*; d(xmys(-2))*; d(xmys(-3))*; d(rirmys)***; d(rirmys(-1))*; d(rirmys(-2))*; d(infmys)**; d(infmys(-2))**; d(infmys(-3))*; d(redmys(-2))**; d(redmys(3))**; ect(-1). ect(-1) has a negative sign but not significant. thailand ertha d(xtha)**; d(xtha(-2))**; d(rirtha(-2))**; d(rirtha(-3))**; d(inftha)***; d(redtha)**; ect(-1)* philippines erphl d(erphl(-3))**; d(rirphl(-1))*; d(infphl(-1))*; ect(-1)** source: secondary data (processed) note: a. dependent variable = erind; ermys; ertha; and erphl (see appendix, table e) b. long-run coefficient (cointeq): 1. indonesia: cointeq = erind (-0.0000*rxind + 1148.2908*rirind + 3539.0335*infind + 0.0000*redind + 8466.1245) cahyadin & ratwianingsih external debt, exchange rate, and unemployment in selected asean countries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 31 2. malaysia: cointeq = ermys (2.2656*log(rxmys) -1.2733*rirmys + 0.6904*infmys 2.4975*log(redmys) + 8.3485) 3. thailand: cointeq = log(ertha) (0.5798*log(rxtha) + 0.0734*rirtha + 0.0398*inftha 0.2980*log(redtha) -2.9915 ) 4. philippines: cointeq = erphl (0.0000*rxphl + 0.3492*rirphl -2.6295*infphl-0.0000*redphl + 23.3563) c. sig. * α=1%; ** α =5%; *** α =10% table 8 shows that the estimation result of the exchange rate in asean 4 uses ecm. the exchange rate in indonesia was influenced by export, interest rate, and inflation. the three variables were also influential to the exchange rate in malaysia. besides, the shortterm effect in the form of ect occurred in two other countries: thailand and the philippines. for instance, the exchange rate in thailand was influenced by export, interest rate, inflation, external debt, and ect(-1). moreover, the exchange rate in the philippines was influenced by the lagged of the exchange rate, interest rate, inflation, and ect. this result confirmed that the short-term model of the exchange rate in thailand and the philippines was precise. the ect(-1) in both countries was negative and significant. the ecm estimation results in the unemployment equation in asean 4 can be seen in table 9. in the short-term, the ecm estimation results in the unemployment equation of malaysia, and thailand was precise. it can be seen from the ect(-1) value, which showed negative and significant. in the two countries, unemployment was influenced by the lagged of unemployment variable, lagged of economic growth variable, and lagged of exchange rate variable. moreover, unemployment in indonesia was influenced by the lagged economic growth and exchange rate variable. furthermore, unemployment in the philippines was influenced by the lagged of unemployment, economic growth, exchange rate, and external debt variables. table 9 ecm estimation of factors affecting unemployment in asean 4 countries dependent var. independent var./significant indonesia uerind d(gdpgind(-2))*; d(erind(-3))**; ect(-1). ect(-1) has a negative sign but not significant. malaysia uermys d(uermys(-3))**; d(gdpg(-2))***; d(ermys(-1))***; ect(-1)** thailand uertha d(uertha(-2))*; d(gdpgtha(-1))**; d(ertha(-3))**; ect(-1)* philippines uerphl d(uerphl(-1))*; d(gdpgphl(-1))**; d(gdpgphl(-2))*; d(erphl)**; d(erphl(-1))*; d(erphl(-2))*; d(erphl(-3))*; d(redphl)*; d(redphl(1))**; d(redphl(-2))**; ect(-1). ect(-1) has a negative sign but not significant. source: secondary data (processed) note: a. dependent variable = uerind; uermys; uertha; and uerphl (see appendix, table f) b. long-run coefficient (cointeq): 1. indonesia: cointeq = uerind (-12.1315*gdpgind + 0.0060*erind + 0.0000*redind -29.5055) 2. malaysia: cointeq = uermys (0.1344*gdpgmys -1.4333*ermys -0.0000*redmys + 8.5838) 3. thailand: cointeq = uertha (-0.4856*gdpgtha -0.0928*ertha -0.0000*redtha + 10.1033) 4. philippines: cointeq = uerphl (-1.2220*gdpgphl -11.3150*erphl-36.0145*redphl + 779.1569) c. sig. * α=1%; ** α =5%; *** α =10% cahyadin & ratwianingsih external debt, exchange rate, and unemployment in selected asean countries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 32 the last step of the ardl-ecm estimation conducted in this research was the stability test using cusum and cusumq. the stability test results of the ardl equations of each external debt, exchange rate, and unemployment in asean 4 are shown in appendix figure a, b, and c. for example, based on figure a, the ardl estimation results of the external debt equation in asean 4 has been stable. it indicates that the robustness of the ardl model has been correct. the results of ardl estimation stability also occurred in the exchange rate equation (figure b) and unemployment (figure c) in each of the asean countries. the empirical findings of the external debt estimation are supported by previous empirical studies such as mupunga and roux (2014); awan et al., (2015); abdullahi et al., (2015); and lau and lee (2016). they exhibited that real interest rate, exchange rate, and national saving had a significant impact on external debt in many countries. the government of asean countries has insight that the stability of the exchange rate is a significant factor in controlling the level of external debt. whereas, the competitive real interest rate can attract many creditors to approve external debt contracts. furthermore, the empirical findings of exchange rate estimation are also revealed by previous empirical studies such as parveen et al.,(2012), patel et al., (2014) and abdoh, et al. (2016). the findings informed that total export, real interest rate, and external debt could restrain the exchange rate volatility among countries. finally, the results of unemployment estimation are appropriate with some previous empirical studies, such as dalmar et al., (2017) and puspadjuita (2018). they described that the high economic growth promoted the low level of unemployment, the stability of the exchange rate could control the level of unemployment, and the high level of external debt in productive sectors led unemployment reduction at a significant level. the finding of the second step of analysis can be explained by table 10. it described the result of the granger causality test (gct) between external debt, exchange rate, and unemployment in asean 4. based on the table, it can be seen that causality occurred between external debt and the exchange rate in indonesia, malaysia, and thailand. on the other hand, causality occurred between unemployment and external debt in indonesia, the philippines, and thailand. last, causality also occurred between unemployment and the exchange rate in indonesia and the philippines. table 10 granger causality test result variables indonesia malaysia philippines thailand ^(red) ^(er) ^(er) ^(red) no causality unidirectional no causality unidirectional no causality unidirectional no causality ^(uer) ^(red) ^(red) ^(uer) bidirectional no causality no causality unidirectional unidirectional no causality ^(uer) ^(er) ^(er) ^(uer) no causality unidirectional no causality no causality unidirectional no causality source: data analysis note: “^” is fitted value from equations 2a, 2b, and 2c cahyadin & ratwianingsih external debt, exchange rate, and unemployment in selected asean countries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 33 conclusion in this paper, the relationship between external debt, exchange rate, and unemployment in asean-4 has been explained using the ardl-ecm and granger causality test (gct). the analysis used multi-step. it means that there were two steps of analysis. the first step was estimating the external debt, exchange rate, and unemployment model under ardlecm. furthermore, the authors estimated the fitted value of external debt, exchange rate, and unemployment using e-views. the second step of the analysis was determining the linkage between external debt, exchange rate, and unemployment under gct. the short-term effect in the external debt equation occurred in malaysia, thailand, and the philippines. meanwhile, the short-term impact on the exchange rate equation arose in thailand and the philippines. finally, the short-term effect in the unemployment equation occurred in malaysia and thailand. meanwhile, based on the ardl estimation results and stability tests on the external debt equation, the exchange rate and unemployment in asean countries indicated that the estimation model was precise. it means that there was a tendency of the development of external debt, exchange rate, and unemployment in asean countries to be a co-movement. besides, the gct results between external debt and exchange rates in indonesia, malaysia, and thailand were unidirectional. the causality between unemployment and external debt in the philippines and thailand was unidirectional, while in indonesia, they were bi-direction. then, the causality between unemployment and exchange rates in indonesia and the philippines was indirection. the result encourages the governments in asean 4 to be able to manage external debt appropriately to stimulate economic growth and decrease the unemployment rate. furthermore, the supervision of exchange rate appreciation and depreciation can also be carried out through foreign exchange market intervention to maintain the value of external debt and keep the number of unemployment in order not to increase continuously. it means that pro-stability exchange rate policies, pro-poor (control unemployment rate), and control of external debt are the focus of the macroeconomic policies of the government of asean 4 countries. references abdoh, w. m. y. m., yusuf, n h. m., zulkifli, s. a. m., bulot, n., & ibrahim, n. j. 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(2017). granger causality analysis between inflation, debt and exchange rate: evidence from malaysia. international journal of academic research in accounting, finance and management sciences, 7(1), 189-196. https://doi.org/10.6007/ijarafms/v7-i1/2624 https://doi.org/10.7763/joebm.2015.v3.194 https://doi.org/10.5296/ifb.v2i1.7734 https://ideas.repec.org/p/adl/wpaper/2005-14.html https://doi.org/10.6007/ijarafms/v7-i1/2624 studi efektivitas pelayanan publik di kecamatan kejaksan kota cirebon jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 1, april 2016, hlm. 1-7 doi: 10.18196/jesp.17.1.2455 refinement of the tsebelis’ (1990) economic sanction game khalifany ash shidiqi faculty of economics and business, universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta, indonesia jalan lingkar selatan, bantul, yogyakarta 55183 indonesia, phone +62-274-387656 correspondence e-mail: khalifany.ash@fe.umy.ac.id received: december 2015; accepted: march 2016 abstract: economic sanction has been widely used and increasingly a popular tool in maintaining peace and political stability in the world. the use of economic sanction, as opposed to the use of military power, to punish target countries have been supported by the charter of united nations (un). tsebelis (1990) modelled economic sanctions using game theory namely the sanction game. this paper focuses on the refinement of the sanction game proposed by tsebelis (1990) to analyse international relations. recent findings from various studies on the effectiveness of economic sanction have been used to reconstruct the game. keywords: economic sanction, the sanction/inspection games, mixed strategy equilibrium. jel classification: c79, k42, f51 abstrak: sanksi ekonomi telah banyak digunakan sebagai alat yang populer untuk mengelola kedamaian dan stabilitas politik internasional. penggunaan sanksi ekonomi didukung oleh piagam pbb untuk menghukum suatu negara yang membahayakan perdamaian internasional. pertama kali dilakukan oleh tsebelis (1990) dalam memodelkan sanksi ekonomi dengan menggunakan teori permainan. model yang dikonsturksi oleh tsebelis (1990) dinamakan “the sanction game”. studi ini focus pada perbaikan “the sanction game” yang sebelumnya telah dibangun oleh tsebelis (1990). studi ini menggunakan temuan-temuan dari berbagai macam studi untuk memperbaiki “the sanction game” sehingga permainan yang dijalankan lebih mendekati realitas. keywords: sanksi ekonomi, the sanction/inspection games, mixed strategy equilibrium. klasifikasi jel: c79, k42, f51 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 1, april 2016: 1-7 2 introduction economic sanction has been used as a primary tool by the united nations in order to maintain peace and political stability in the world. the use of economic sanction has been supported by the charter of united nations (un). any action with respect to threats to the peace will be dealt by the security council of united nations (scun) without involving the use of armed forces.1 the economic sanction may be perceived as an alternative policy to military approach (baldwin, 2000). furthermore, the economic sanction has been considered to be more efficient in comparison to a military action in dealing with various violations, breaches, and aggressions (hufbauer, et. al., 2007:5). in modern era, the use of economic sanction has increased significantly, however the effectiveness of the policy may be questionable. this phenomenon has been debated for many years among scholars (see o’connor (1940), sunderland (1960), tsebelis (1990), pape (1997), and hufbauer et.al. (2007), among others). tsebelis (1990) argued that from 86 cases of economic sanction, only 33 cases were considered effective. hufbauer, et. al. (2007) reported that from year 1914 to 2006 there were 174 economic sanction cases and only about 34 percent of those were considered effective. modelling of economic sanction may be conducted by using either decision theory or game theory. tsebelis (1990) argued that economic sanctions is better being analysed using game theory on the ground that the probabilities of success and failure in committing a violation are affecte d by the interactions of rational players. indeed a country is not a human, however, any decision to violate/follow international law/agreement by a country have been made by rational players which can be modelled as a representative agent. this paper aims to refine the sanction game proposed by tsebelis (1990). the concept of the sanction game proposed by tsebelis (1990) is discussed in research methods.. the refinement 1 united nations, charter of the united nations, chapter vii, article 41 of the sanction game is presented in result and discussion. recent findings from various studies will be used to reconstruct the game especially in determining the payoffs. research method this paper uses analytical approach to construct economic sanction phenomenon into a game theoretical analysis. the sanction game proposed by tsebelis (1990) does not have pure strategy nash equilibrium. hence, the analysis in finding mixed strategy nash equilibrium is by using minimax method. the sanction game the method used in this study is the approach of error correction model (ecm), because this model is able to test whether the empirical model is consistent with economic theory and in the solution of the time series variables are not stationary and spurious regression (thomas, 1997). spurious regression is chaotic regression, with a significant result regression of the data that is not related. tsebelis (1990) modelled the interaction among countries in imposing economic sanction as a 2x2 game played simultaneously by representative agents and the game is called the sanction game. the row player represents target country, while the column player represents sender country. the target country may choose one of the two strategies available, namely to violate or not to violate international agreements/laws.2 on the other hands, the sender country may also choose one of the two strategies namely to impose sanction or not to impose sanction. the sanction game is presented in a normal form game as follows: (see figure 1) the sanction game does not have pure strategy nash equilibrium, implying that there is no player who chooses a particular strategy with probability equal to 1. nevertheless, the game has mixed strategy equilibrium. suppose the target country chooses to violate with probability x and the sender country chooses to 2 the agreements may be applicable for two countries (bilateral) or more than two countries (multilateral). refinement of the tsebelis’ (1990) economic sanction game (khalifany ash shidiqi) 3 enforce with probability y, then the mixed strategy equilibrium of the game is as follows: 1) 2) indeed, tsebelis’ (1990) pioneer approach in adopting game theoretical approach to analyze international sanction should be acknowledged and appreciated. nevertheless there are several caveats which can be noted in tsebelis’ (1990) model. first, the outcome (not violate, sanction) may not be realistic in real world. given the target country choose ‘not to violate’, would it be any impact on the target country whether or not the sender country chooses either ‘sanction’ or ‘not to sanction’? in fact, the sender country does not have any justification to sanction the target country since the target country chooses ‘not to violate’. second, tsebelis (1990) modelled the phenomena in international relation by using the sanction game with aggregated payoffs. each cell of the payoff matrix reflects the net benefits which have been arisen from the combination of two strategies chosen by two players simultaneously. the use of aggregated payoffs does not permit us to trace the elements of benefits and costs which formulate the net benefits in each cell of the payoff matrix. consequently, as long as the aggregated payoffs have been used in the model, any attempt to change either the severity of the sanction or the incentive for not to violate the law, the impact of the policy to the process of the change in the elements of benefits and costs is not observable. this may raise a further inquiry on how realistic tsebelis’ (1990) sanction game can be to represent phenomena of economic sanction in the real world. result and discussion a refinement of the sanction game the revised version of the sanction game is a 2x2 game played simultaneously by representative agents, namely the target and the sender countries. it is assumed that the target country is one or more countries which run missions that have tendencies to give a potential threat to the peace of the world.3 in this case, the missions have been perceived as a violation of international agreement/law or against the principles of the un (see charter of the un, chapter 1, article 1). on the other hands, the sender country is assumed to be a country or international authority (such as scun) as the main proposer in the use of economic sanction. hufbauer, et. al. (2007:44) argued that the economic sanction tend to be enforced gradually by the sender country. there are several activities which can be pursued by the sender country prior to the implementation of the sanction are: a) investigating the target country’s activities, b) reporting the outcome of the investigation to the un, and c) sanctioning the target country approved by the un if the target country’s activities are proven to be a violation of international agreement/law.4 pradiptyo (2007) refined the inspection game proposed by tsebelis (1989) in modelling the deterrence effect in criminal justice system by using disaggregated payoffs. in the same manner, in this article, the sanction game modelled by tsebelis (1990) is going to be reconstructed by using disaggregated payoffs. empirical findings from several studies will be used to develop the disaggregated payoffs of the game. from the target country’s perspective, the violation of international agreement/law that has been carried out is justified as long as it gives rise to benefits obtained due to the conduct (bv). in this circumstance, the target country may be able to defend and to keep the mission running from any pressures. given the target country chose to violate international agreement/law, if the sender country choose ‘enforce’, the target country is going to receive economic sanction (cv) and this will be 3 there are many cases, however, that this assumption may not necesarily hold, in the sense that the sender country may simply implement economic sanctions to any country which does not comply with the sender country interests. 4 ibid, chapter 7, article 41 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 1, april 2016: 1-7 4 perceived as disutility by the target country. (see figure 2) another utility will be obtained by the target country is reputational benefits (br) which arise if the country has never been sanctioned. the target country may violate the agreements/laws, however, as long as the sender country has not observed the behaviour or the sender country does not mind with it, and then the sender country may not necessarily decide to impose sanction. in this case, the target country will have many accesses in the core of economic cooperation, international political relationship, and the trust that has been given by international society. in contrast, the target country which ever been or being sanctioned will only have limited access in the respective international activities.5 the utility (bs) will be obtained by the sender country when the enforcement process was successful. the utility has been indicated by the sender country’s abilities in detecting, preventing, and solving any dangerous 5 us government interagency, international crime threat assessment, chapter 2. activities that give threat either to its sovereignty or the peace and political stability of the world. those abilities give positive effects such as; (1) the security for many countries from the undesirable occurrence that might happen as the consequences from the target country’s violation of the agreement/law , (2) the target country will get obstruction, so that it would be harder to violate, and (3) from the historical enforcement that have already been successful, the target country will think many times to repeat its unacceptable conduct, because the probability to be detected again is higher than previously. another utility will be obtained by the sender county is a positive reputational benefit (rb) as they have been able to retain their sovereignty or to uphold the peace for the world as stated by the un. in this case, the reputational benefit will only be obtained by the sender country, if the target country has not done any violations (or when the sender country chooses payoff c2 or d2 and when target choose c1 or d1). although, this reputational benefit will not be obtained when the target sender country enforce not enforce target country violate bv – cv, bs – ce – cc bv + br, 0 comply br, rb – ce br, rb figure 2. the revised of the sanction game where: bv: the target country’s utility arises from committing a violation of international agreement/ law. cv : the target country’s disutility of receiving direct punishment (e.g. banned from international trade activities). br : positive reputational effects to the target country for not being sanctioned. bs : the sender country’s utility due to the success of the enforcement (indicated by sender’s ability in detecting the violations and other positive effects for international society). rb : reputational benefits which have been arisen due to enforcing international agreement/law. ce : direct costs of enforcement bourned by the sender country (e.g. costs of investigation). cc : indirect costs bourned by the sender country in imposing economic sanction (e.g. the loss of potential international trade profit). refinement of the tsebelis’ (1990) economic sanction game (khalifany ash shidiqi) 5 country chooses to violate and the sender country chooses not to enforce (or when the target country chooses payoff b1 and the sender country chooses b2). it should be noted that any attempt to enforce economic sanction is costly, which obviously is being bourned by the sender country. it is assumed that the costs of enforcement consist of two elements, namely direct cost (ce) and indirect cost (cc) of enforcement. the direct costs of enforcement will be bourned by the sender country soon after economic sanction has been implemented, for instance the investigation costs, the costs in imposing the economic sanction, etc. hufbauer et. al (2007:108) argued that one of the biggest costs in conducting enforcement is investigation costs. the indirect costs of enforcement (cc) will be bourned by the sender country as its potential gains from trade and also gains from international relation decrease as the sanction is imposed. hufbauer et. al. (2007:109) argued that one of the worst things that might happen from imposing economic sanction is the loss of potential profit that should be earned by both sides if the sanctions would have not been imposed. it is assumed in the model that prior to the imposition of the sanctions; the relationship between the sender and the target countries was good, especially in the core of economic cooperation. after imposing the economic sanctions their relationship was obstructed and perhaps there is a possibility that the good relationship will be vanished. consider q be the probability of the sender country to enforce the economic sanction. if the expected outcomes to violate exceed the expected outcomes to comply, therefore the best response for target is as follows: (bv – cv)q + (bv + br) (1 – q) brq + br (1 – q) bv q(cv + br) the same thing happens to the sender, whether they want to enforce or not. consider p be the probability that the target will violate. the best response will be obtained as follows: (bs – ce – cc)p + (rb – ce) (1 – p) 0p + rb (1 – p) bsp ce + ccp propotition 1: the target country is going to violate if the utility to conduct such activity dominates the expected disutility of serving direct punishment (economic sanction) and the expected loss of reputational [bv ≥ q(cv + br)] proposition 2: the sender country is going to enforce if the expected benefits of enforcement dominates the expected costs which may incurred due to enforcement [bsp ≥ (ce + ccp)] similar to tsebelis’ (1990) model, the game above does not have pure strategy nash equilibrium. therefore the mixed strategy equilibrium is presented as follows: 1) and 2) equation (1), p* represent the probability of target country to violate. equation (2), on the other hand, q* represent the probability of sender country to enforce. proposition 3: in equilibrium, given the level of punishment (i.e. ce), the probability to violate is positively correlated to sender country’s direct costs of enforcement (ce), but it is the reverse it’s net benefit (bs – cc). jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 1, april 2016: 1-7 6 proposition 4: in equilibrium, the probability to enfroce is positively correlated to target’s utility to violate (bv), but it is the reverse of the target’s miseries in serving economic sanction (cv + br). conclusion tsebelis’ (1990) model was the first game theoretical approach in analyzing economic sanction. however, there are two defective elements that made the sanction game does not properly operate in accordance to the reality. first, the outcome (not violate, sanction) may not be realistic in real world. given the target country choose ‘not to violate’, would it be any impact on the target country whether or not the sender country chooses either ‘sanction’ or ‘not to sanction’? in fact, the sender country does not have any justification to sanction the target country since the target country chooses ‘not to violate’. second, tsebelis (1990) modelled the phenomena in international relation by using the sanction game with aggregated payoffs. each cell of the payoff matrix reflects the net benefits which have been arisen from the combination of two strategies chosen by two players simultaneously. the use of aggregated payoffs does not permit us to trace the elements of benefits and costs which formulate the net benefits in each cell of the payoff matrix. consequently, as long as the aggregated payoffs have been used in the model, any attempt to change either the severity of the sanction or the incentive for not to violate the law, the impact of the policy to the process of the change in the elements of benefits and costs is not observable. this may raise a further inquiry on how realistic tsebelis’ (1990) sanction game can be to represent phenomena of economic sanction in the real world. this refinement of the sanction game gives more realistic interaction between sender and target country, by changing the name of the strategy for sender country into enforce or not to enforce. it also uses disaggregated payoffs that permit us to trace the elements of benefits and costs which formulate the net benefits in making an action. in equilibrium, the probability to violate is positively correlated to sender country’s direct costs of enforcement, but it is the reverse it’s net benefit. in the other hand, the probability to enforce is positively correlated to target’s utility to violate, but it is the reverse of the target’s miseries in serving economic sanction. references baldwin, david a. (2000). the sanction debate and the logic of choice. the mit press, vol. 24, no. 3: 80-107 frey, b.s. and holler, m.j. (1998). tax compliance policy reconsidered, homo oeconomicus 15:27-44. holler, m.j. and host, v. (1990). maximin vs nash equilibrium: theoretical results and empirical evidence, in quandt r.e., and triska, d. (eds). (1990), optimal decisions in markets and planned economies. westview press. hufbauer, gary clyde, jeffrey j. schott, kimberly ann elliott, and barbara oegg (2007). economic sanctions reconsidered, institute for international economics. washington dc, 3rd edition. isbn 978-088132-408-2, 350pp. o’conor, theresa m (1940). the embargo on the export provisions. irish historical studies publication. vol. 5 pape robert a (1997). why economic sanctions do not work. the mit press, vol. 22, no. 2, pradiptyo, r. (2007), does punishment matter? a refinement of the inspection game, review of law and economics, vol. 3, issue 2, article 2, p.197-219. pradiptyo, r. (2009), the impact of sanctions and crime prevention initiatives when decisions are strategic, mimeo, faculty of economics and business, universitas gadjah mada. tsebelis, george (1989). the abuse of probability in political analysis: the robinson crusoe fallacy. the american political science review, vol. 83, no.1. tsebelis, george (1990). are sanctions effective? a game-theoretic analysis, journal of conflic resolution 34:3-28. refinement of the tsebelis’ (1990) economic sanction game (khalifany ash shidiqi) 7 united nations. charter of the united nation chapter v: the security council. united nations. charter of the united nations chapter vii: action with respect to threats to the peace, breaches of the peace and acts of agression. sunderland, riley (1960). the secret embargo. university california press. vol. 29. no. 1. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 22 nomor 2, oktober 2021 article type: research paper fiscal policy, private consumption, and economic growth among the economic community of west african states oluwaseyi adedayo adelowokan abstract: this study examines the impact of fiscal policy and private consumption on economic growth among the economic community of west african states (ecowas) spanning from 1988 to 2017 using the panel pool mean group. the results depicted that the government’s recurrent expenditure for growth was inversely but significant to economic growth, while capital expenditure was positively and statistically significant to explain economic growth in nigeria. it can be seen that capital expenditure is vital for economic growth. besides, private consumption’s negative effect on economic growth was a disconnection between economic output and private consumption. the results further showed that tax revenues in ecowas countries had a positive and significant influence on economic growth. therefore, the study recommends re-visit government policy(ies) channeling government spending to increase ecowas output rates and spur regional economic growth. keywords: private consumption; macroeconomic policy; economic growth; ecowas jel classification: d1; e2; e6; f43; o47 introduction the growth in the economic community of west african states (ecowas) has been challenged from its inception. different scholars have shown in their studies how the growth of embattled ecowas member states is affected by various factors, including public funds mismanagement, corruption, poor economic policies, absence of trade integration from the region, lack of coordination, and ineffective fiscal policies. impulsive government financing and feeble sectorial linkages with socioeconomic difficulties also constitute an impediment to a sustainable economy (amadi, 2006). today, the most key objective of any economy being challenged in the anglophone economic community of west african state is the growth due to its inefficiency in allocating human and material endowment. in this regard, kuznets (1973) considers economic growth as a drawnout ascent in the ability to progressively support the various goods and services of a populace’s economy, where developing its capacity depends on the propelling innovation and the institutional and affiliation: department of economics, olabisi onabanjo university, ago-iwoye, ogun state, nigeria *correspondence: adelowokan.oluwaseyi@oouagoiwoye.edu.ng this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v22i2.10966 citation: adelowokan, o.a. (2021). fiscal policy, private consumption, and economic growth among the economic community of west african states. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 22(2), 289-300. article history received: 26 jan 2021 revised: 09 jul 2021 accepted: 11 sep 2021 https://scholar.google.it/citations?user=kw4hbiuaaaaj&hl=en mailto:adelowokan.oluwaseyi@oouagoiwoye.edu.ng http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/10966 https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v22i1.7836&domain=pdf https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v22i1.10966&domain=pdf adelowokan fiscal policy, private consumption, and economic growth … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 290 philosophical changes it demands. thus, economic growth is the expansion in yield of an economy throughout a given timeframe. it estimates an expansion in the production of goods and services over a particular period. in a developing nation, enough output is created in each progressive timeframe. in this way, growth happens when a country's output increases and, thus, is utilized to create more output. moreover, the macroeconomic performance of ecowas countries varies across the organization. while few countries among the ecowas were reported to have steady macroeconomic performance, others are unsatisfactory by comparison. however, the macroeconomic performance at ecowas had commonly been poor despite the many commitments from the policymakers to economic stability from the ecowas member states. ecowas was set up to help promote member states' economic growth; the proposed objectives of members state, however, have failed to ignite for over forty years of its reality. it will be coherent that an increment in public consumption prompts an expansion in output growth. however, barro (1991) has opposed its validity for certain nations, particularly the developing countries. on the other side, in their work, gwartney et al. (1998) emphasized that “even though government expenditure on its core functions may enhance economic performance, there are good reasons to believe that growth will be retarded if government expenditure goes beyond its core functions into non-productive activities.” the present state of household consumption resulting from government changes in government fiscal policy surges the modest of this research as an attempt to quantify the effect of household expenditure on goods and services and changes in fiscal policy instruments on economic growth. concerning this, many researchers have looked into the relationship between private consumption and fiscal policy and their impacts on growth in developing countries. however, earlier studies' ability to verify the significant influence of government financing on expanding private consumption’s influence is missing in the empirical review. to that end, this study intends to focus on this gap by expanding the earlier works to verify how fiscal policy influences private consumption and its effect on economic growth among west african states countries. besides, in macroeconomics, private consumption is one of the key drivers of aggregate expenditure. an increase in consumption will automatically lead to an increase in aggregate expenditure, subsequently fueling economic growth. following this importance, this study examines how both fiscal policy and private consumption can affect ecowas members’ economic growth. the study subsections include the literature review, methodology, results, and conclusion and recommendations. several researchers have verified the relative effect of fiscal policy on economic growth worldwide, both in developed and developing economies. however, the nature of the relationship between fiscal policy, private consumption, and economic has not been discussed, especially in a cross-country study. using a structural equation model, with data spanning china's 29 provinces between 1992 and 2010, zhang and yang (2016) explored how consumption affects economic growth. they reported that the path coefficients relating to consumption and economic growth depicted a significant positive adelowokan fiscal policy, private consumption, and economic growth … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 291 effect. benos (2009), also through the examination of how fiscal policy affects economic growth among eu countries, reported that the components of public spending and revenues enhanced economic growth of the 14 european union countries between 1990 and 2006. in addition, keho (2019) investigated the relationship between government spending and household consumption among ecowas countries. the study adopted a correlated effect mean group and confirmed that government consumption negatively influenced private consumption. while crowding-out effects in six countries posited a significant level, the crowding-out effects in one country had no significant effect in the remaining five countries. the study ascertains that government consumption in the ecowas states was not a good instrument to stimulate aggregate demand and economic growth. besides, pegkas (2018) empirically investigated the relationship among economic growth and several factors “investment, private and government consumption, trade openness, population growth, and government debt” in greece. the results revealed a long-run relationship between the variables. private investment, government consumption, and trade openness positively influenced economic growth, while the study found a negative long-run effect of government debt and population growth on economic growth. in a conceptual review, alkasasbeh and haron (2018) examined the relationship between fiscal policy and economic growth. their study showed that the sources of income and expenditure in fiscal policy varied, and their relative importance also varied from one country to another, where incomes for some economies relied mostly on the income generated from taxes. for this reason, it is not out of point to adjudge tax as a determinant factor of growth for such an economy as jordan. alkasasbeh and haron (2018) retorted that an economy like saudi arabia considers oil more important because it is its biggest source of income, while its expenditure includes employee salaries and wages in the government sectors and the disbursement on infrastructure like electricity, good roads, aids, etc. the study also noted that economic conditions differ from country to country according to the economic and political systems prevailing in each country, and therefore cannot provide a single study that is valid for all these systems. it also indicated the need to find out which variables are most influential to economic growth. in addition, the issue of economic growth reflects the strength in the state’s economy, and the more attractive the state is to foreign investment, the better the rate of economic growth, indicating a state of equilibrium and recovery in the economy. moreover, zabiullah et al. (2017) tested the role of fiscal policy in indian economic development: a conceptual observation. the study was based on secondary data, such as the role of fiscal policy in influencing the indian economy and its evolution, in addition to articles, magazines, books, and so on. the study found that fiscal policy has an influential role in the indian economy because it is useful to use resources in the best way, making use of national income in proper distribution, providing financial incentives, and reducing inequality. the success of the fiscal policy depends on taking the right time, reducing public spending, increasing revenues, and reducing taxes, which will help strengthen the economy and manage it effectively during implementation. also, the importance of adelowokan fiscal policy, private consumption, and economic growth … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 292 establishing industries in the public sector and the government has a prominent role in achieving balanced development in the country. foster comlan (2017) examined the relationship between fiscal policy and economic growth among the waemuc. using panel regression, the study findings showed that all indicators of fiscal policy “tax revenues, private investments, the rate of inflation and population growth” influenced the economic growth in nigeria. meanwhile, slimani (2016) studied how the fiscal policy affected economic growth among forty developing countries. the study using a comparative analysis between morocco and the rest of the countries affirmed a double threshold effect of the fiscal balance. while also confirming that when the budget deficit exceeded f 4.8% of the country's gross domestic product or when the budget surplus was as high as 3.2% of the country's gross domestic product, the economic growth was affected negatively. in comparison, the second showed that the sign between the budget deficit and economic growth was conditioned by the attainment of total investment in morocco. in malaysia, ridzuan et al. (2014) studied the relationship between “economic growth, household consumption, domestic investment, and public expenditure.” the study employed ardl analysis between 1960-2010, and the findings disclosed a long-run relationship between the variables. furthermore, shihab et al. (2014) discussed the causal effect between jordan's economic growth and fiscal policy. to achieve this objective, the study designed a mathematical model that relied on granger methodology to determine the relationship between the study variables. the study data covered the period (2000-2012). after collected the data and analyzed the results, it showed that any change in budget deficit could be explained through the changes in the economic growth. also, there was a directional relationship between the study variables “fiscal policy and economic growth” in jordan. looking at research on household consumption, private investment, government expenditure, and economic growth in south sulawesi, indonesia, ramli and andriani (2013) explored the use of regression analysis that all independent variables “household consumption, private investment, and government expenditure” had positively and statistically significant influence on economic growth. isaac and samwel (2012), on the other hand, showed the effect of fiscal policy on private investment on economic growth in kenya. with the use of stage regression, the study affirmed that fiscal policy on investment played a major role in determining economic growth. another study on the “relationship between economic growth, fixed investment, and household consumption” was carried out by karim et al. (2012). they adopted the structural vector error correction model in malaysia and reported a significant positive linkage between household consumption and fixed investment in the short run. however, they reported no statistically significant long-run effect of fixed investment, household consumption, and economic growth. meanwhile, the study affirmed that permanent long run runs from economic growth, household consumption, and investment. amin (2011), in another study on “causal relationship between consumption expenditure and economic growth in bangladesh,” reported using ardl the existence of long-run effect between consumption and economic growth. the study also revealed that a adelowokan fiscal policy, private consumption, and economic growth … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 293 unidirectional causal relationship runs from economic growth to consumption expenditure. it ascertained the application of keynesian consumption functions in bangladesh. on fiscal policy and economic growth in south africa, ocran (2009) used quarterly from 1990 to 2004 with autoregressive vector analysis and reported that investment from government posited a direct effect on output growth, while the effect was minimal to influence consumption expenditure. the study also reported that the receipt of tax posited a direct effect on the growth output. mishra (2011), on the other hand, reported a long-run relationship between real consumption expenditure and economic growth in india, whereas there were no short-run relationships between the variables. a sequel to this review, it was identified that studies linking fiscal policy, private consumption, and economic growth were not in existence despite some studies were related to fiscal policy, private consumption, and economic growth. it was identified that most studies had been restricted to a country study. while few identified studies were carried out by foster comlan (2017) on west african economic monetary union countries’ fiscal policy and economic growth and slimani (2016) on 40 developing countries, keho (2019) studied how government spending affected household consumption among ecowas countries. however, these studies failed to link fiscal policy, private consumption, and economic growth. therefore, this study examines the effect of fiscal policy and private consumption on economic growth in ecowas countries. research method time-series data for choosing five ecowas countries were selected for the time frame of 1988-2017. the selected ecowas countries included benin, cote d’ivoire, ghana, nigeria, and sierra leonne. the justification for the period was premised on the data availability. this study adopted the keynesian theory of fiscal policy as its theoretical framework. the keynesian theory advanced a strong argument for the primary role of fiscal action and suggested that active government policy could effectively influence macroeconomic variables, such as economic growth. the theory reflects on the equilibrium of the market’s performance in the economy. the market equilibrium is analogs of aggregate demand and aggregate supply. aggregate demand encompasses the purchases of locally produced goods and services during the accounting period. in addition, adolph wagner's theory on expenditure posited as an endogenous factor was for determining national income growth. as income increases, the public sector’s output grows. however, keynes posited that public expenditure is determined by exogenous factors that reflect on the macroeconomic policy for growth and development in the short and long run. the traditional equation posits that output growth is a function of consumption, investment, and government expenditure: gicy ++= (1) where: y represents gdp (national income), c refers to consumption, i represent an investment, and g is government expenditure. adelowokan fiscal policy, private consumption, and economic growth … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 294 the equation reflects that consumer spending is a vital part of output growth along with capital investments and government investment. this model envisages a greater role of government in improving the efficiency of resource allocation and promoting investment to raise the rate of economic growth in developing countries (ahuja & tatsutani, 2009). the government is assumed to make an adequate investment through infrastructures like electricity, good roads, and improvement in human capital, which is necessitated to improve private investment and generate increasing returns to scale. meanwhile, it is ascertained that endogenous growth is an extension of the neoclassical theory. this theoretical model was employed to reflect the effect of fiscal policy and private consumption on economic growth among the ecowass. model specification following the theoretical postulation by the keynesian model and wagner’s law, this study adapted its model from the background information provided by the keynesian theory of fiscal policy and incorporated other variables into the model based on the previous studies of adeoye (2006) and onyinyechi et al. (2016). therefore, in line with this explanation, the model is specified to capture the relationship between fiscal policy, private consumption, and economic growth. the functional form of the model is stated: (fgdp it = ),,, itititit pctxgcegre (2) in order to make the regression model in an estimation form, the model is reformulated to include the stochastic error term. tititititit n i it n i it n i it n i it n i itit pcetxgcegrergdp pcetxgcegrergdprgdp   ++++++ +++++= −−−−− = − = − = − = − = −  1514131211 1 15 1 14 1 13 1 12 1 110 (3) where; rgdp = real gross domestic product, = government spending on recurrent expenditure, = government spending on capital expenditure, = tax revenue (value-added tax and exercise duties), pc= household final consumption, α0 = intercept or constant term, 𝛼1−5 = the various parameter estimates measuring the impact of the explanatory variables, = the error term, i = cross-sectional data, and t = time series. the study time frame lapsed between 1991 and 2018. the time frame was chosen based on the availability of data from various sources. estimation techniques there are already a large number of dynamic panel data estimators. this study used the pool mean group estimator. pesaran et al. (1999) showed that the traditional procedure for estimating pane data, such as fixed-effect model or instrumental variables or generalized methods of moments estimators, can produce an inconsistent and potentially misleading average value of the parameters for the dynamic panel data model unless the coefficient is in fact identical. however, in most panels of this sort, the test indicates that adelowokan fiscal policy, private consumption, and economic growth … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 295 these parameters differ significantly across the group. thus, estimators that impose weaker homogeneity assumptions would be useful. prior to the pooled mean group estimates, various pre-estimation tests were verified. the tests, including the multicollinearity test, panel unit root test of levin et al. (2002) and im et al. (2003) w-stat, were also employed. in estimating a dynamic regression, it is germane to identify the level of individual integration, whether the unit root problem persists and at what level. the unit root test of the augmented dickey-fuller test followed an autoregressive model. the model is identified: ttit yy  += −1 𝜇𝑖𝑡 is stochastic, 𝑌𝑡−1 is, in fact, equal to 1. ttit yy  += −1 actually, if 𝜌 = 1, the 𝑌𝑡 has a unit root. in (times series) econometrics, a time series with a unit root is known as a random walk (times series). a random walk, in turn, is an example of a non-stationary time series. an alternative form of: ttit yy  += −1 the first difference can be re-writing as: )( 1− += ititit yyy result and discussion table 1 presents the descriptive statistics of the variables used. the descriptive include the mean, median, and standard deviation. comparing the mean and standard deviation implies that all series had high variation from their mean as the standard deviation of the series lay above 1. all series were in line and reflected the data as their mean lay within the maximum and minimum values. all variables were also positively skewed except houscons. similarly, only houscons was leptokurtic in nature as the kurtosis values lay below 3. besides, gdp, gce, gre and tx were platykurtic. however, the values of the jarque-bera statistic showed that all the series were not normally distributed since the pvalues of these series were more than a 5% significance level. adelowokan fiscal policy, private consumption, and economic growth … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 296 table 1 descriptive table gdp taxrev curexp capexp houscons mean 7.67e+11 3.82e+10 1.65e+12 1.36e+12 77.43061 median 3.49e+11 2.31e+09 6.13e+11 6.79e+11 84.23295 maximum 6.32e+12 4.85e+11 9.50e+12 1.15e+13 130.7260 minimum 7497000. 11913167 15220100 21301000 0.106504 std. dev. 1.06e+12 9.73e+10 2.40e+12 1.97e+12 30.72679 skewness 3.072743 3.184897 1.650020 2.814087 -0.355506 kurtosis 14.73326 12.29352 4.870420 12.36587 1.873328 jarque-bera 1016.069 735.2157 83.33480 691.5007 10.27979 probability 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.005858 sum 1.07e+14 5.30e+12 2.30e+14 1.89e+14 10762.85 sum sq. dev. 1.56e+26 1.31e+24 7.95e+26 5.37e+26 130290.8 observations 139 139 139 139 139 note: “lngdp = long of gross domestic product, lngre = log of government recurrent expenditure, lngce= government capital expenditure, lntx = log of tax revenue, lnpc = log of private consumption” where *, **, ** indicates 10%, 5%, 1% significant level. table 2 correlation matrix among the variables lgdp lhcon ltarev lcapexp lcurexp lgdp 1 lhcon -0.106128 1 ltarev 0.413296 0.206272 1 lcapexp 0.976803 -0.088373 0.316438 1 lcurexp 0.611837 0.044615 0.217032 0.573659 1 note: “lngdp = long of gross domestic product, lngre= log of government recurrent expenditure, lngce= government capital expenditure, lntx = log of tax revenue, lnpc = log of private consumption” where *, **, ** indicates 10%, 5%, 1% significant level. table 2 shows the correlation matrix among the variable used. it was observed that the independent variables' correlation coefficients were not perfectly correlated since none of the correlation coefficients were closer to one (1). hence, the tendency of multicollinearity problem was closed. table 3 unit root test variables levin, lin & chu t* im, pesaran & shin w-stat level first diff level first diff order of integration lgdp -0.95548 -3.75759 0.47175 -4.75948 i(1) lhcon -1.21811 -2.18108 -2.37300 -6.05135 i(0) ltarev 0.61574 0.49731 0.32633 -4.06246 i(1) lcapexp -1.16472 -4.67681 0.89401 -5.09759 i(1) lcurexp -1.28514 -2.32296 1.40188 -4.04885 i(1) note: “lngdp = long of gross domestic product, lngre= log of government recurrent expenditure, lngce= government capital expenditure, lntx = log of tax revenue, lnpc = log of private consumption” where *, **, ** indicates 10%, 5%, 1% significant level. adelowokan fiscal policy, private consumption, and economic growth … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 297 table 3 displays the unit root test for the unit-roots problem in the panel data. it was observed that levin, lin and chu t* test for unit root at 5% significance level indicated that lgdp, ltarev, lcapexp, and lcurexp all had a unit root at their original series. whereas in their first differences, the existence of unit root in the series was eliminated. hence, they were integrated of order one (1). while the lhcon series at level was stationary, the unit root problem was eliminated at the original series. it showed that lhcon was integrated of order zero (0). similarly, im et al. (2003) w-stat at 5% significance level indicated that all series (lgdp, lhcon, ltarev, lcapexp, and lcurexp) had unit root problems at the level. meanwhile, they were stationary at their first differences. hence, they were all integrated of order one (1). table 4 short-run estimates variable coefficient std. error t-statistic prob.* short run equation d(lhcon) 0.144913 0.118076 1.227290 0.2225 d(ltarev) -0.209740 0.093763 -2.236911 0.0274 d(lcapexp) 0.069718 0.241104 0.289163 0.7730 d(lcurexp) 0.966606 0.510043 1.895145 0.0608 c -3.798643 1.517904 -2.502559 0.0139 note: “lngdp = long of gross domestic product, lngre= log of government recurrent expenditure, lngce= government capital expenditure, lntx = log of tax revenue, lnpc = log of private consumption” where *, **, ** indicates 10%, 5%, 1% significant level. the co-integration estimator results in table 4 reveal that economic growth and the annual result for the independent and control variables showed the expected negative sign of co-integration and were highly significant as theoretically expected. the highly significant cointegrated further confirms the existence of a stable long-run relationship. the co-integration coefficient of -0.2678 simply implies that deviation from the long-run economic growth is deemed corrected by 26.78% by the following year. this negative sign signals an oscillating convergence in economic growth in nigeria and a move back towards equilibrium. table 5 long run estimates variable coefficient std. error t-statistic prob.* long run equation lhcon -0.769088 0.125068 -6.149362 0.0000 ltarev 0.529703 0.089317 5.930587 0.0000 lcapexp 1.441019 0.085854 16.78453 0.0000 lcurexp -0.288718 0.041189 -7.009576 0.0000 note: “lngdp = long of gross domestic product, lngre= log of government recurrent expenditure, lngce= government capital expenditure, lntx = log of tax revenue, lnpc = log of private consumption” where *, **, ** indicates 10%, 5%, 1% significant level. the short-run coefficient indicates that lhcon, lcapexp, and lcurexp posited a positive effect on nigeria's economic growth. the coefficient of the lagged lhcon, lcapexp, and lcurexp of 0.1449, 0.0697, and 0.9666 showed that unit increase in lhcon, lcapexp, and lcurexp brings about an increase of 0.1449%, 0.0697%, and 0.9666% in economic growth. however, lhcon, lcapexp, and lcurexp were not significant at a 5% significant adelowokan fiscal policy, private consumption, and economic growth … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 298 level. ltarev posited an inverse effect on nigeria's economy and was statistically significant to economic growth. the lhcon lagged coefficient of -0.2097 signified that a unit increase in lagged lhcon brings about a decrease of 0.2097 in economic growth. table 5 shows the pool mean group (pmg) long-run analysis of the fiscal policy and private consumption effect on economic growth in ecowas countries. the estimated pmg model in table 4 is represented in the equation. from the estimate, both lhcon and lcurexp posited an inverse effect on lrgdp in the ecowas countries, while both ltarev and lcapexp positively affected lrgdp in ecowas countries. the coefficient of lhcon and lcurexp of -0.7691 and -0.2887 respectively posited that a unit increase in lhcon and lcurexp decreases 0.7691% and 0.2887% in lrgdp of the ecowas countries. also, the coefficient of ltarev and lcapex of 0.5297 and 1.4410 showed that a unit increase in ltarev and lcurexp brings a proportion rise of 0.5297% and 1.4410% in lrgdp among ecowas countries, respectively. the t-statistics also showed that all independent variables were statistically significant at a 5% level. hence, all variables were represented in the model and true reflection on lrgdp of the ecowas countries. the study by keho (2019) is in tandem with the empirical findings, as the study concluded that public spending does not influence economic growth positively among ecowas countries. similarly, foster comlan’s (2017) studies align as the study revealed that such a tax policy, designed as the use of tax for economic or social purposes, promotes economic growth in the waemu zone. isaac and samwel (2012) also gave credence to the study's findings as the study showed that fiscal policy impacts on investment played a major role in the determination of economic growth in kenya. on the inverse reflection of consumption on economic growth, the study by amin (2011) confirmed the result as the study retorted that bangladesh consumption is the result rather than the cause of growth. however, a study by ramli and andriani (2013) does not augur well with the study as their study concluded that an increase in consumption, private investment, and aggregate demand from year to year could boost economic growth. conclusion this research examined the impact of fiscal policy and private consumption on economic growth in ecowas from 1988 to 2017. the study reported that though only tax revenue negatively influenced economic growth in the short run, capital expenditure and tax revenue were positively significant to economic growth in ecowas countries. however, both private consumption and current expenditure inversely and significantly influenced economic growth in ecowas countries. it is evident that both the private and public sectors lagged in spurring growth in the countries. therefore, there is a need for re-visiting government policy channeling towards government spending to increase the ecowas output rate. also, adequate government spending via tax and consistent private consumption will not only bring about economic growth but there will also be a general increase in the citizens’ standard of living. in contrast, fiscal policy and consumption provide a challenge to economic growth across african countries. in a broad survey, the study may not be generally justified in african states. therefore, a study covering the subadelowokan fiscal policy, private consumption, and economic growth … jurnal 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(hida supriyanto) 65 diterima di masyarakat dan sebagai alat pembayaran yang sah. dalam kehidupan masyarakat modern saat ini uang sangat penting bagi perekonomian karena terkait dengan aktivitas perekonomian lalu lintas barang dan jasa. uang dengan segala kelebihannya mampu menciptakan permintaan baik permintaan barang maupun jasa. akan tetapi, apabila uang yang beredar di masyarakat terlalu banyak maka dapat menyebabkan inflasi dan berakibat fatal terhadap perekonomian jika tingkat inflasi terlalu tinggi. dalam hal tersebut maka stabilitas uang sangat penting diperhatikan demi terwujudnya pertumbuhan perekonomian yang baik (prawoto, 2000). guna menjaga stabilitas perekonomian, yang harus dilakukan adalah penyediaan jumlah uang di masyarakat harus disesuaikan dengan jumlah uang yang dibutuhkan. sesuai teori ekonomi tentang kebijakan moneter bahwa jika uang yang beredar di masyarakat terlalu banyak maka dapat merangsang terjadinya kenaikan harga barang atau inflasi namun jika jumlah uang yang beredar terlalu sedikit maka aktifitas perekonomian akan lama berkembang atau dengan kata lain pertumbuhan ekonomi melambat (boediono, 1998, hal: 161-162). dalam kebijakan moneter permintaan uang menjadi hal yang berperan penting untuk memacu pertumbuhan ekonomi. banyak studi sebelumnya yang memaparkan tentang permintaan uang di masyarakat. beberapa negara maju berpendapat bahwasanya pdb riil, inflasi, dan tingkat bunga merupakan variabel-variabel yang penting dalam fungsi permintaan uang. milton friedman berpendapat bahwa kebijakan moneter berkontribusi dalam mencapai stabilitas ekonomi dengan mengendalikan besaranbesaran moneter yang menjadi penyulut ketidakstabilan ekonomi, serta membantu mengantisipasi ketidakstabilan yang disebabkan oleh besar-besaran nonmoneter (sugiyanto, 1995). permintaan uang di indonesia mengalami perkembangan sesuai dengan kebijakan pemerintah yang memungkinkan berkembangnya jenis tabungan dan deposito berjangka. keinginan masyarakat untuk menabung dan mendepositokan uang sangat dipengaruhi oleh kemudahan-kemudahan dan berbagai fasilitas yang ditawarkan di kalangan perbankan. hal ini dimungkinkan bila pemerintah juga turut campur tangan dalam berbagai kebijakan deregulasi maupun regulasi di bidang moneter khusunya dalam ekonomi pada umumnya (basuki, 2001). salah satu langkah yang dapat ditempuh dalam pengendalian jumlah uang beredar adalah dengan melihat perilaku permintaan individu akan uang kas (narrow money) atau m1. hal ini disebabkan perilaku permintaan akan uang kas atau m1 sangat berpengaruh dalam mengendalikan jumlah uang beredar yang pada dasarnya merupakan salah satu bagian integral dari kebijakan ekonomi makro otoritas moneter (bank indonesia, 2003:62). efektivitas kebijakan moneter sangat dipengaruhi oleh keinginan masyarakat dalam memegang uang kas (narrow money) atau m1. maka, untuk menghasilkan kebijakan moneter yang efektif perlu adanya identifikasi terhadap variabel makro ekonomi yang dapat mempengaruhi permintaan masyarakat akan uang kas. kemudian telaah lebih jauh tentang perkembangan uang di indonesia bisa dilihat dari gambar 1. sumber: bank indonesia 2013 gambar 1. perkembangan m1 di indonesia periode 2001-2013 gambar 1 memperlihatkan bahwa dari tahun ke tahun perkembangan jumlah uang beredar menunjukkan angka yang dinamis, terutama pada tahun 2008. gejolak krisis keuangan global telah mengubah tatanan perekonomian dunia dan tentunya berimbas ke indonesia yang mulai terasa menjelang akhir tahun 2008. tercatat pertumbuhan ekonomi di atas 6 persen sampai dengan triwulan iii-2008, 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 900,000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 m1 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 1, april 2014: 64-70 66 permintaan uang di masyarakat tentunya juga mengalami perubahan. telah banyak dijabarkan dalam berbagai macam teori seperti teori klasik yang mengatakan bahwa besar kecilnya permintaan uang dipengaruhi oleh pendapatan secara positif, dan juga keynes dalam teorinya menyatakan bahwa permintaan uang dipengaruhi oleh adanya motif memegang uang, yaitu motif transaksi dan berjaga-jaga yang dipengaruhi oleh pendapatan, dan motif spekulasi dipengaruhi oleh suku bunga secara negatif. kemudian milton friedman menyatakan bahwasanya permintaan uang dipengaruhi oleh tingkat harga yang berpengaruh negatif, imbal hasil dari obligasi dan saham yang berpengaruh negatif, kekayaan yang berpengaruh positif, dan selera yang berpengaruh positif (boediono, 1998). terdapat beberapa temuan sebelumnya dari studi permintaan uang di indonesia. yuliadi (2006) menggambarkan bahwa kebijakan uang ketat pada periode studi 1990.i-2004.iv dalam mengendalikan nilai rupiah menyebabkan masyarakat lebih banyak menyimpan uang di bank untuk memperoleh pendapatan bunga. keadaan ini juga sekaligus menggambarkan minimnya pencairan kredit perbankan oleh pengusaha karena mereka menunda investasi untuk menghindari biaya bunga yang tinggi sehingga terjadi akumulasi permintaan uang. pasar uang segera melakukan koreksi terhadap keadaaan perekonomian setelah perekonomian membaik dengan terjadinya penurunan tingkat bunga domestik akibat hubungan negatif antara tingkat bunga domestik dengan permintaan uang. studi serupa juga dilakukan oleh prawoto (2000) yang meneliti permintaan uang di indonesia dengan model dinamis penyesuaian parsial. variabel yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah pendapatan, tingkat bunga, dan perubahan harga. hasil studinya mengindikasikan bahwa banyaknya uang yang dipegang untuk motif transaksi dan berjaga-jaga lebih dominan jika dibanding dengan motif spekulasi. studi lainnya oleh boediono (1985), yang mengidentifikasi faktor-faktor penentu dari permintaan uang di indonesia selama periode 1975-1984. kerangka kerja yang digunakan mengadopsi pendekatan yang selama ini berkembang, di mana faktor yang mempengaruhi permintaan uang adalah gdp, suku bunga dalam negeri, dan inflasi dalam negeri, serta keterbukaan pada sektor perdagangan dan finansial. temuan dari studi ini adalah bahwa tingkat bunga dan inflasi domestik terbukti mempengaruhi permintaan uang. metode penelitian sumber data dalam studi ini diambil dari publikasi statistik ekonomi keuangan indonesia, bank indonesia. jenis data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder, yaitu uang kas (m1), produk domestik bruto (pdb), suku bunga (r), dan cadangan devisa (cadev) pada tahun 2001-2013. adapun model analisisnya adalah: m1t = f (pdbt. rt. cadevt ) 1) sementara, tahapan pengujian yang digunakan untuk pendekatan ecm (error correction model) adalah sebagai berikut: (1) uji stasioneritas uji stasioner bertujuan untuk menghindari regresi lancung (spurios regression), uji stasioner penting guna meng-estimasi data-data yang hendak diolah (gujarati, 1995). untuk menentukan stasioneritas data, dilakukan perbandingan antara nilai statistik adf dengan nilai kritis yakni statistic τ. jika nilai absolut statistik adf lebih besar dari nilai kritisnya maka hipotesis nul ditolak yang berarti data stasioner. sebaliknya, jika nilai absolut adf lebih kecil dari nilai kritisnya, maka data tidak stasioner. berdasarkan tabel 1, dapat disimpulkan bahwa hanya variabel lpdb yang sudah stasioner dengan nilai hitung mutlak adf lebih besar dari nilai kritis mackinnon pada tingkat 1 persen. sementara variabel lm1, lr, dan lcadev mengandung akar unit sehingga tidak stasioner pada level. agar variabel tersebut dapat bersifat stasioner maka perlu dilakukan uji akar unit pada derajat diferensi pertama. (2) uji derajat integrasi uji ini dilakukan apabila setelah dilakukan uji akar unit ternyata data belum stasioner. jika dengan data diferensi pertama belum stasioner maka prosedur selanjutnya dilakukan pengujian dengan data diferensi kedua hingga diper identifikasi variabel makro ekonomi ... (hida supriyanto) 67 oleh data yang sudah stasioner (gujarati, 1999). berdasarkan tabel 2, dapat disimpulkan bahwa tidak semua variabel yang digunakan pada studi ini sudah stasioner pada tingkat diferensi pertama sehingga perlu dilakukan uji stasioner pada tingkat diferensi kedua. berdasarkan tabel 3, dapat disimpulkan bahwa seluruh variabel pada studi ini sudah stasioner pada tingkat diferensi kedua. (3) uji kointegrasi uji kointegrasi bertujuan untuk mengetahui adanya keseimbangan atau kestabilan jangka panjang di antara variabel-variabel yang diamati. ada dua metode yang digunakan untuk uji kointegrasi, yakni engle-granger (eg) dan augmented engle-granger (aeg) dengan memanfaatkan uji statistik df-adf guna melihat apakah residual regresi kointegrasi stasioner atau tidak. maka digunakanlah persamaan regresi kointegrasi dengan menggunakan metode kuadrat terkecil biasa, yakni: m1t = β0 + β1pdbt + β2rt + β3cadevt + et 2) keterangan: β0 adalah intersep/constant; β1, β2, β3 adalah koefisien regresi; m1t adalah variabel permintaan uang pada periode t; pdbt adalah variabel produk domestik bruto pada periode t; rt adalah variabel suku bunga pada periode t; cadevt adalah cadangan devisa pada periode t; et adalah komponen galat adapun, hasil persamaan regresinya dapat dituliskan sebagai berikut: lm1 = -12,99968 + 1,562402 lpdb + prob (0,0000) 0,356905 lr + 0,004746 lcadev 3) (0,0128) (0,9461) r2 = 0,990344 hasil analisis persamaan pengaruh permintaan uang di indonesia adalah sebagai berikut: (a) pengaruh produk domestik bruto terhadap m1 di indonesia. nilai koefisien produk domestik bruto dalam jangka panjang sebesar 1,562402 menunjukkan apabila terjadi peningkatan pada produk domestik bruto (lpdb) sebesar 1 persen maka permintaan uang akan mengalami peningkatan sebesar 1,562402 milyar dengan asumsi tingkat suku bunga, dan tingkat cadangan devisa konstan atau tidak mengalami perubahan. koefisien produk domestik bruto bernilai positif, maka pdb mempunyai hubungan positif terhadap permintaan uang dalam jangka panjang artinya semakin tinggi tingkat pendapatan, maka permintaan uang akan meningkat karena dengan peningkatan pendapatan maka individu akan cenderung melakukan transaksi yang lebih besar dan hal ini menuntut individu untuk memegang uang lebih banyak. nilai tabel 2. hasil uji derajat integrasi diferensi pertama variabel nilai hitung adf nilai kritis mutlak mc kinnon keterangan 10% 5% 1% lm1 -6,397512 -3,181826 -3,504330 -4,156734 stasioner lpdb -8,785443 -3,181826 -3,504330 -4,156734 stasioner lr -5,376739 -3,181826 -3,504330 -4,156734 stasioner lcadev -4,069058 -3,181826 -3,504330 -4,156734 tidak stasioner tabel 1. hasil uji akar unit pada level variabel nilai hitung adf nilai kritis mutlak mckinnon keterangan 10 persen 5 persen 1 persen lm1 -2,874952 -3,180699 -3,502373 -4,152511 tidak stasioner lpdb -7,423826 -3,180699 -3,502373 -4,152511 stasioner lr -2,517794 -3,180699 -3,502373 -4,152511 tidak stasioner lcadev -2,331537 -3,180699 -3,502373 -4,152511 tidak stasioner jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 1, april 2014: 64-70 68 probabilitas sebesar 0,0000 yang lebih kecil dari taraf nyata 1 persen menunjukkan lpdb secara parsial signifikan dan mempengaruhi variabel depen-dennya. (b) pengaruh suku bunga terhadap m1 di indonesia. nilai koefisien suku bunga (lr) dalam jangka panjang sebesar 0,356905 menunjukkan apabila terjadi peningkatan terhadap suku bunga sebesar 1 persen, maka permintaan uang akan mengalami peningkatan sebesar 0,356905 persen dengan asumsi produk domestik bruto dan cadangan devisa konstan. koefisien suku bunga (lr) bernilai positif, maka suku bunga (lr) mempunyai hubungan positif terhadap permintaan uang dalam jangka panjang. hal ini turut mendukung hasil studi sebelumnya yang dilakukan nopirin (1998) bahwa semakin tinggi suku bunga maka semakin kecil keinginan masyarakat untuk memegang uang kas. nilai probabilitas suku bunga (lr) sebesar 0,0128 lebih kecil dari taraf nyata 5 persen, menunjukkan bahwa variabel suku bunga (lr) berpengaruh signifikan terhadap permintaan uang di indonesia. (c) pengaruh cadangan devisa terhadap m1 di indonesia. koefisien lcadev menunjukkan tanda positif sebesar 0.004746 yang artinya apabila lcadev naik sebesar 1 persen, maka permintaan uang akan mengalami peningkatan sebesar 0.004746 persen dengan asumsi bahwa produk domestik bruto dan tingkat suku bunga konstan. koefisiennya bernilai positif, maka cadangan devisa mempunyai hubungan positif terhadap permintaan uang di indonesia. nilai probabilitas lcadev sebesar 0,9461 menunjukkan bahwa lcadev tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap permintaan uang di indonesia. nilai koefisien determinasi (r-squared) adalah sebesar 0,990344 yang berarti bahwa variasi variabel endogen dapat dijelaskan secara linier oleh variabel bebasnya di dalam persamaan sebesar 99,03 persen, dan sisanya 0,97 persen dijelaskan oleh faktor-faktor lain di luar persamaan. persamaan jangka panjang telah diregresikan, maka langkah berikutnya adalah menguji akar unit terhadap nilai residual e dengan menggunakan metode adf. nilai residual e persamaan permintaan uang ternyata stasioner pada tingkat diferensi kedua dapat dilihat pada tabel 8. berdasarkan tabel 4 nilai adf t-statistik lebih kecil dari nilai kritis mc kinnon pada taraf nyata 1 persen, 5 persen, dan 10 persen sehingga nilai residualnya stasioner pada tingkat diferensi kedua. dengan demikian terbukti bahwa terdapat kointegrasi dalam model, sehingga perumusan ecm dapat dilanjutkan. (4) error correction model (ecm) metode perumusan dalam studi ini dapat dituliskan menjadi: ∆ ∆ ∆ ∆ et 4) tabel 4. uji unit root terhadap residual variabel nilai adf tstatistik nilai kritis mac kinnon prob keterangan 1 persen 5 persen 10 persen e -7,894654 4,161144 3,506374 3,183002 0,0000 stasioner tabel 3. hasil uji derajat integrasi diferensi kedua variabel nilai hitung adf nilai kritis mutlak mc kinnon keterangan 10% 5% 1% lm1 -7,772116 -3,183002 -3,506374 -4,161144 stasioner lpdb -8,025522 -3,183002 -3,506374 -4,161144 stasioner lr -9,280654 -3,183002 -3,506374 -4,161144 stasioner lcadev -7,162766 -3,183002 -3,506374 -4,161144 stasioner identifikasi variabel makro ekonomi ... (hida supriyanto) 69 untuk mengetahui spesifikasi model dengan ecm merupakan model yang valid, dapat terlihat pada hasil uji statistik terhadap koefisien atau residual dari regresi pertama, yang selanjutnya akan disebut error correction term (ect). jika hasil pengujian terhadap koefisien ect signifikan, maka spesifikasi model yang diamati valid. ∆ 1 ∆ ∆ ∆ + 5) keterangan: m1t adalah variabel permintaan uang pada periode t; pdbt adalah variabel produk domestik bruto pada periode t; rt adalah variabel suku bunga pada periode t; cadevt adalah variable cadangan devisa pada periode t, adalah error correction term pada periode sebelumnya. berdasarkan hasil perhitungan dengan analisis regresi linear ecm, maka dapat diketahui nilai variabel ect sebagai variabel yang menunjukkan keseimbangan.jika variabel ect signifikansi pada α = 5 persen, maka koefisien tersebut akan menjadi penyesuaian bila fluktuasi variabel yang diamati menyimpang dari hubungan jangka panjang. dengan kata lain spesifikasi model sudah sahih dan dapat menjelaskan variasi variabel tak bebas. model jangka pendek permintaan uang dapat dituliskan pada persamaan berikut: dlm1 = -0,010960 + 0,497750 dlpdb + 1,401415 dlpdb(-1) + 0,405890 dlr – 0,091381 dlr(-1) + 0,263996 dlcadev – 0,010893 dlcadev(-1) + 9,49e-07 e 6) r2 = 0,725895 nilai koefisien produk domestik bruto (dlpdb) dalam jangka pendek sebesar 0,497750 menunjukkan apabila terjadi peningkatan produk domestik bruto (dlpdb) sebesar 1 persen, maka permintaan uang akan mengalami peningkatan sebesar 0,497750 persen dengan asumsi tingkat suku bunga tabungan, dan cadangan devisa konstan. hal ini sesuai dengan teori yang dikemukakan oleh keynes tentang motif memegang uang yaitu pada motif transaksi dan berjaga-jaga yang ditentukan oleh tingkat pendapatan. pada saat pendapatan tinggi lebih banyak uang yang diminta untuk motif transaksi dan berjaga-jaga. nilai koefisien suku bunga (dlr) jangka pendek sebesar 0,405890 menunjukkan apabila terjadi peningkatan pada suku bunga sebesar 1 persen, maka permintaan uang akan mengalami peningkatan sebesar 0,405890 persen dengan asumsi produk domestik bruto dan cadangan devisa konstan. koefisien suku bunga bernilai positif berarti suku bunga mempunyai hubungan positif terhadap permintaan uang dalam jangka pendek. nilai probabilitas suku bunga 0,1938 berarti bahwa variabel suku bunga tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap variabel dependennya yaitu variabel m1. hal ini berarti bahwa uji tanda sesuai dengan hipotesis dalam studi ini. artinya setiap ada peningkatan suku bunga maka individu lebih tertarik untuk menyimpan uangnya di bank dibandingkan dengan memegang uangnya dalam bentuk kas karena uang kas memiliki biaya peluang lebih tinggi dibanding menyimpannya di bank. nilai koefisien cadangan devisa (dlcadev) dalam jangka pendek sebesar 0,263996 menunjukkan apabila terjadi peningkatan cadangan devisa (dlcadev) sebesar 1 persen, maka permintaan uang akan mengalami peningkatan sebesar 0,263996 persen dengan asumsi produk domestik bruto dan suku bunga konstan. koefisien cadangan devisa bernilai positif sehingga mempunyai hubungan positif dengan permintaan uang dalam jangka pendek. nilai probabilitasnya adalah 0,0015, yakni lebih besar dari taraf nyata 5 persen yang berarti signifikan terhadap variabel dependennya, yaitu m1. sementara itu, variabel error correction term (e) menunjukkan angka 0,0017 yang berarti signifikan pada taraf nyata 5 persen dan mempunyai tanda positif. maka, spesifikasi model sudah benar sehingga mampu menganalisa hubungan jangka pendek. hasil estimasi dari persamaan jangka pendek menunjukkan nilai r-square sebesar 0,725895 yang berarti bahwa 72,58 persen model permintaan uang dapat dijelaskan oleh variabel produk domestik bruto, tingkat suku bunga, dan cadangan devisa, sedangkan sisanya sebesar 27,42 persen dijelaskan oleh variabel lain di luar model. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 1, april 2014: 64-70 70 simpulan produk domestik bruto berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap permintaan uang dalam jangka pendek melalui model ecm, begitu juga dalam jangka panjang. sementara itu, tingkat suku bunga tabungan tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap permintaan uang dalam jangka pendek. sementara dalam jangka panjang, pengaruhnya positif dan signifikan. cadangan devisa berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap permintaan uang dalam jangka pendek namun tidak signifikan dalam jangka panjang. daftar pustaka bank indonesia, (tt) statistik ekonomi dan keuangan indonesia, berbagai edisi. jakarta: bank indonesia. basuki, a t. (2001). pengaruh kebijaksanaan ekonomi di bidang keuangan dan perbankan terhadap permintaan uang (studi kasus indonesia tahun 1978-1999). jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan vol. 2 no. 2, oktober 2001: 307-325. boediono. (1998). ekonomi moneter, seri sinopsis pengantar ilmu ekonomi no.5. yogyakarta: bpfe ugm. gujarati, d. (1997). ekonometrika dasar. jakarta: erlangga. iswardono. (1996). uang dan bank. edisi 4. yogyakarta: bpfe ugm. mankiw, n. g. (2000). teori makro ekonomi. edisi keempat. alih bahasa imam nurmawam. jakarta: erlangga nopirin. (1998). ekonomi moneter i. edisi 1. yogyakarta: bpfe ugm. prawoto, n. (2000). permintaan uang di indonesia konsep keynesian dengan pendekatan pam. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol.1, no. 1, april: 1-13 salvatore, d. (1996). international economics fifth edition. new jersey: prentice-hall, inc. sugiyanto, c. (1995). ekonometrika terapan. yogyakarta: bpfe. wahyu, w. w. (2007). analisis ekonometrika dan statistika dengan eviews. yogyakarta: stie ykpn. yuliadi, i. (2006). analisis fluktuasi nilai tukar rupiah dan implikasi pada perekonomian indonesia periode 1990:i-2004: ii. disertasi. universitas padjajaran. bandung (tidak dipublikasikan). microsoft word 01-dimas jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 2, oktober 2013, hlm.91-100 evaluating monetary transmission mechanism in indonesia through exchange rate channel dimas bagus wiranata kusuma1 , salina h. kassim2 1,2 kulliyyah of economics and management sciences, international islamic university malaysia 53100 kuala lumpur, malaysia. phone: +6196 5217/5207 e-mail korespondensi: dimas_kusuma@umy.ac.id received: july 2012; accepted: september 2013 abstract: this study aims to evaluate the role of exchange rate channel in transmitting monetary policy effects in indonesia by addressing the following questions: (i) to what extent is the contribution of the exchange rate in inflation rate fluctuations in indonesia? (ii) what are the effects of exchange rate channel in explaining the direct pass through effect in indonesia; and (iii) can the exchange rate channel explain the trade competitiveness in indonesia? the study utilizes monthly data spanning from january 1990 to april 2009 and is divided into four sub-periods, namely (i) pre-crisis period: january 1990-july 1997; (ii) crisis period: august 1997-december 2000; (iii) post-crisis period: january 2001-june 2005; and (iv) post-itf period: july 2005-april 2009. by adopting the standard vector autoregression model, the study finds changing nature of the exchange rate channel during the various sub-periods of the study. keywords: exchange rate channel; trade balance; direct pass through; indonesia jel classification: e44, f15, g01 abstrak: studi ini bertujuan mengevaluasi peran saluran nilai tukar dalam mentransmisikan efek kebijakan moneter di indonesia dengan mengatasi pertanyaan berikut: (i) sampai sejauh mana kontribusi dari nilai tukar fluktuasi tingkat inflasi di indonesia? (ii) apa efek dari saluran nilai tukar dalam menjelaskan lulus langsung melalui efek di indonesia; dan (iii) dapatkah saluran nilai tukar menjelaskan daya saing perdagangan di indonesia? studi ini menggunakan data bulanan mulai dari januari 1990 sampai april 2009 dan dibagi menjadi empat sub-periode, yaitu (i) periode pra-krisis: januari 1990-juli 1997; (ii) masa krisis: agustus 1997-desember 2000; (iii) periode pasca-krisis: januari 2001-juni 2005; dan (iv) pasca-itf periode: juli 2005april 2009. dengan mengadopsi model vector autoregression standar, studi ini menemukan perubahan sifat saluran nilai tukar selama berbagai sub-periode studi. kata kunci: kurs channel; neraca perdagangan; direct pass through; indonesia klasifikasi jel: e44, f15, g01 introduction the monetary transmission mechanism is a process through which monetary policy decisions are transmitted through the economy resulting in the intended changes in income and inflation (taylor, 1995). since there are various possible important transmission mechanisms in an economy, the task of identifying the relevant channels through which the impact of monetary policy is transmitted to the real economy has been one of the most challenging and crucial ones in the conduct of monetary policy. a clear understanding of the monetary transmission mechanism channel is highly important in ensuring effective and successful implementation of monetary policy. domac (1999) highlights that understanding the transmission mechanism of monetary policy is highly important, particularly on the distributional consequences of the policy actions. in small open economies, one of the candi jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 2, oktober 2013: 91-100 92 dates for an important channel of monetary transmission is the exchange rate channel. due to the high dependencies on the external sector, exchange rate movements might have major influences on the aggregate demand and aggregate supply, thus, output and prices in the small open economies. in the case of indonesia, the conduct of monetary policy has been focusing on achieving output and price stability. due to its open nature, the exchange rate channel is also an important channel of monetary transmission and becoming more pronounced in affecting the real economy and prices, particularly since the crisis in 1997/1998 (bank indonesia, 2000). exchange rate stability becomes an important aspect in maintaining sustainability in the economy, in particular, when looking at its relationship with the other variables. such stability, in the context of monetary policy, has been recorded as bank indonesia (bi) mandate, that is, to achieve stability in exchange rate (rupiah) in efforts to control the level of domestic inflation. in determining the role of the exchange rate in the transmission mechanism in the indonesian economy, siswanto et al. (2001) and astiyah (2006) conduct empirical studies using a structural vector auto regression (svar) approach, by considering two sub-periods, precrisis and post-crisis. the first sub-period seeks to measure whether a monetary policy shock had a dominant influence on exchange rate movements compared to a risk factor, with the objective of determining whether the monetary policy could be transmitted to inflation through the exchange rate channel. meanwhile, the second sub-period is aimed at detecting the transmission of exchange rate changes to the inflation rate both directly, through price (direct pass-through effect), and indirectly, through output (indirect pass-through effect). the findings reveal that during the pre-crisis period, monetary policy transmission through the exchange rate channel was very weak. in addition, during the pre-crisis, the study shows that the direct pass-through effect of the exchange rate to consumer prices is larger than the indirect pass through. these results lead to the conclusion that the magnitude of exchange rate channel in indonesia is important to be put in place as a crucial mechanism of monetary policy to affect output, even though it indicates a weak form relationship. in terms of monetary policy framework, prior to the inflation targeting in july 2005, bi had initially adopted the base money as operational target for monetary policy. the notion of shifting to inflation as an anchor since 2000 was in line with the improvement in price condition and as complication in the banking system renders bank credit no longer compatible for monetary operation. technically, under base money, it is difficult to trace its stability, and control and predict its behavior. more importantly, the monetary policy responses tend to be backward looking, thus it could be unreliable to be incorporated as a policy signal. consequently, bi introduced a new policy framework which mainly focuses on inflation targeting as the operational target in monetary policy. in this regard, the basic principle of the monetary policy framework is to strike a balance between achieving the inflation target and optimal levels of other macroeconomic variables. specific measures are implemented to curb inflationary pressure, guide inflation expectations, and deal more with the inflation shocks, as well as reduce output volatility over medium-term horizons. in short, the new monetary policy offered and adopted is based on the principle of flexibility in accommodating a temporary inflation shocks without deviating from the achievement of the medium-term target. amid the increasing need for more information on the effectiveness of the itf following its recent adoption in the indonesian economy, this study empirically deliberates on major issues pertaining to the role of exchange rate channel in indonesia. in particular, this study aims to empirically determine whether the variability in the exchange rate triggers higher inflation rate and being harmful to the trade balance in case of indonesia. in this regard, this paper attempts to address the following questions: (i) what is the extent of exchange rate channel contribution in the inflation rate fluctuation in indonesia? (ii) what is the role of exchange rate channel in explaining the direct pass through effect in indonesia, (iii) can exchange rate channel explain the trade competitiveness in indonesia? evaluating monetary transmission mechanism... (dimas bagus, salina) 93 exchange rate channel and monetary policy framework in indonesia exchange rate as a policy instrument used by central bank is affected by some changes in supply and demand aspects. this includes, first, changes in domestic real income; it implies that households and firms have more funds to spend (and save), increasing the demand for more domestic and foreign goods, services, and securities. the supply of domestic money, for instance, indonesian rupiah, will increase as increase in exports. second, changes in domestic price of domestic goods relative to the domestic price of foreign goods. residents will demand more foreign goods and therefore supply more domestic money in the foreign exchange market. third, changes in foreign interest rates relative to domestic interest rates. as foreign interest rates raises relative to domestic rates, ceteris paribus, foreign securities become relatively more attractive. accordingly, domestic residents will buy more foreign securities and supply more domestic money. in mundell-fleming (1998) model for small open economies, an exchange rate appreciation would hurt exports and encourage imports. further detailed explanation was provided by the marshall-lerner (1996) condition which states that the trade balance to improve following depreciation; export must increase enough and otherwise, import decreases to compensate in the increase of imports. during the exchange rate depreciation in 2008, the flows of indonesia’s exports were falling, and so did the imports volume. this indicates that under recession or global economic turmoil, the marshall-lerner condition needs to be re-examined in the specific context of a particular economy. in the context of indonesia, an evaluation of the impact of changes in exchange rate on the economy is needed as the implementation of the itf could result in a distinct economic condition. figure 1 shows the impact of the 2007/2008 global financial crisis in terms of export, import, and nominal exchange rate which seemed to be confirming on the above mentioned theory. in figure 1. fluctuations of nominal exchange rate, export, and import during itf implementations   8.8 8.9 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.5 2006 2007 2008 xp 8.4 8.6 8.8 9.0 9.2 9.4 9.6 2006 2007 2008 mp 9 .0 5 9 .1 0 9 .1 5 9 .2 0 9 .2 5 9 .3 0 9 .3 5 9 .4 0 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 n e r 9.05 9.10 9.15 9.20 9.25 9.30 9.35 9.40 2006 2007 2008 ner 8.4 8.6 8.8 9.0 9.2 9.4 9.6 2006 2007 2008 mp jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 2, oktober 2013: 91-100 94 particular, due to the depreciation in 2008, the import value was slowing down, and export did so, which should be moving up. it may be guessed since the global markets were exaggerating so that it might decline the global demand, so finally tended to push down the indonesia exports market. however, in the context of marshall-lerner condition on trade balance theory, the presence of nominal depreciation in domestic exchange rate against foreign exchange rate cause an increase in net exports. in relation to the exchange rate and price level, the exchange rate pass-through (erpt) refers to the extent in which exchange rate changes alter relative prices. the effects of exchange rate changes can be on: (1) import and export prices, (2) consumer prices, and (3) trade volumes. the erpt can essentially be defined as “the percentage change in local currency import/export prices resulting from one percent change in the exchange rate” (duasa, 2008). according to mcfarlane (2002), the erpt mechanism is comprised of two channels which is originally sourced by exchange rate depreciation, and affected the price level accordingly. a direct and indirect pass through effect is considered to be a channel through which current account imbalances can be adjusted. the direct pass through would contribute into inflation through imported inputs and imported of final goods which become more expensive. these conditions accordingly would raise production cost, and inflation in country. meanwhile, indirect pass through effect is describing a depreciation on exchange rate is apparently channeled into inflation through (1) domestic demand for substitutes goods, and (2) demand for export. these two conditions would increase demand for labor and push up substitute and exports price, so definitely encourage inflation to crawl up. given that indonesia has been implementing the itf in managing its monetary policy, for achieving inflation stabilization policy, it is important to understand if exchange rate channel contributes significantly to changes in the level of inflation in the country through the erpt. in view of the high possibility that the exchange rate channel would bring tremendous impact on the health and stability of the indonesian economy, an empirical examination of the relationship between the exchange rate channel and price level in the context of the itf is urgently needed. several studies focusing on this area include that of mohamed (2003), which empirically examines the roles of money and credit in the monetary policy during the preand post-liberalization period in malaysia. the results indicate that money played important role post-liberalization compared with during pre-liberalization. edwards (2006) analyzes the relationship between exchange rate and inflation in countries that have adopted inflation targeting. the study finds two important findings: first, these countries have experienced a decline in the pass-through from exchange rate to inflation since there is co-existence in the degree of effectiveness of the nominal exchange rate as a shock absorber. second, the adoption of inflation targeting in the monetary policy procedures has not resulted in an increase in exchange rate volatility. the study by rahmi et al. (2009) indicates that the indonesian currency would be affected by the changes on the us, singapore, and the uk exchange rates due to the interest rate differentials. kara and nelson (2002) explain the phenomena of “exchange rate disconnect” whereby exchange rate could not be co-existence with inflation in cases where imports are treated as the intermediate-goods specification rather than as a final consumer good. jayanthy and abdullah (2010) adopts the granger causality test and finds that for asia, there is a significant one way causal relationship between the nominal and real exchange rate and the rate of inflation. ito and sato (2007) argue that (i) the degree of exchange rate pass through to import prices was quite high in the crisis-hit economies, including in indonesia, (ii) the pass through to cpi was generally low, with a notable exception of indonesia. concerning export competitiveness under appreciation of exchange rate, abeysinghe and yeok (1998) expose that in general, singapore economy has a higher degree in imported input content, but exchange rate appreciation has the less the impact on its exports. this suggests that singapore economy has successfully developed domestic value-added which calls for the critical leverage in maintaining export competitiveness and explains a concerted efforts to raise productivity across industries. finally, uddin evaluating monetary transmission mechanism... (dimas bagus, salina) 95 (2009) examines the co-integration between export and import in bangladesh economy. he later suggests that bangladesh economy is not in violation of its international budget constraints. it implies its trade balance is co-integrated and some policies on international trade are investigated to show long run equilibrium relationship between export and import. research method type and source of data the study utilizes monthly data series for the period from january 1990 to april 2009. for comparison purpose and more enriching discussion, the data sample period is further divided into four sub-periods, namely (i) precrisis period: january 1990 to july 1997; (ii) crisis period: august 1997 to december 2000; (iii) post-crisis period: january 2001 to june 2005; and (iv) post inflation targeting framework (itf): july 2005 until april 2009. nominal exchange rate (ner), inflation rate (inf), imports (mp), and exports (xp) are further investigated and examined using the standard vector auto regression analysis. all data are expressed in logarithmic forms, with the exception of inflation rate. data are sourced from the international monetary fund’s international financial statistics and bank indonesia database of various issues. data analysis before we proceed, it is imperative to perform a priory analysis of the variables temporal properties. we subject each time series to the standard augmented dickey fuller (adf) unit root test. the results indicate that almost all data series under consideration are integrated of order 1, or i (1). that is, they are stationary in their first differences. accordingly, we implement the philips-perron (pp) test for all variables under consideration. the pp test confirms the stationary in i (1) process. subsequently, we proceed with a cointegration test, as suggested by johansen (1992) and johansen and juselius (1990). essentially, the test of a varbased test, treating all variables as essentially endogenous. in implementing the test, we place emphasis on the pre-condition that the error terms need to be serially uncorrelated. table 1. unit root tests results: adf and pp tests period adf test pp test level first difference level first difference pre-crisis ner inf exp imp 0.790 -3.041** -1.017 -1.349 -5.612*** -6.652*** -8.840*** -6.466*** 0.718 -2.358 -1.096 -2.402 -5.611*** -6.445*** -18.242*** -19.536*** crisis ner inf exp imp -3.549** -2.071 -2.161 -2.933* -4.826*** -2.015*** -7.528*** -7.404*** -3.256** -1.389 -2.107 -2.838* -4.735*** -1.961*** -7.847*** -7.421*** post-crisis ner inf exp imp -1.788 -0.955 -1.560 0.366 -5.651*** -5.897*** -10.458*** -8.626*** -1.964 -1.148 -1.313 -0.755 -5.610*** -5.897*** -10.458*** -12.063*** post-itf ner inf exp imp -0.995 -1.457 -1.891 -1.566 -5.321*** -5.408*** -6.687*** -9.052*** -1.115 -1.706 -1.977 -1.580 -5.321*** -5.408*** -6.687*** -8.660*** note: *,**,*** denote significance at 10%, 5%, and 1%, respectively. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 2, oktober 2013: 91-100 96 1. concerning the effect of exchange rate channel to inflation to observe whether exchange rate can effect inflation during various period of time, the co-integration test is utilized and the results suggest that in all period observed, it indicates exchange rate does not carry out the long run relationship with the existed inflation in indonesia. such condition is exposed by the forecast error variance shown by variance decomposition function. interestingly, during the post implementation of itf, the innovation of inflation is very low compared with post crisis period, even crisis period. vdc function illustrate that the innovation of inflation was contributed by exchange rate shock just around 3% during precrisis, but tending to increase to more less 10% on 30 horizons. in addition, during crisis period it was accounted for around more less 20% on 30 horizons, and during post crisis the vcd shows an outstanding outcome which contributes roughly 75% in inflation rate variation. meanwhile, during itf implementation, conversely its contribution is weak and low, just around 1%, (see table 2), also see table 3 in appendix. according to above estimated results, the present study finds out that we reject the statement states “during the pre-crisis, exchange rate channel does not become an important channel in transmitting monetary policy, meanwhile during the crisis, post crisis, and post-itf implementation, it is considered as a crux channel, given under the floating exchange rate regime”. in particular, in the post crisis period after the implementation of the itf, the exchange rate channel tends to affect inflation but in a negligible portion, and relatively weak. therefore, in a nutshell, after implementation of itf, transmission channel through exchange rate becomes a less powerful to trace and explain the behavior of inflation rate in indonesia. 2. concerning the effect of exchange rate channel in explaining existed the direct pass through theoretically, the direct pass through is occurred in the form of an exchange rate depreciation which is transmitted through production cost process and accordingly into inflation. hence, in that context, by examining the integration process, we may ensure on how strong the inflation would arise in the case of depreciation taken place. according to cointegration results, during the crisis as well as post itf empirically shows significant result. it is meant that depreciation is reported as a threat policy which should be put into account in formulating monetary policy stance. in addition, those effect is obviously corrected by tracing out the vdc table which was during post itf the innovation of inflation through import variables is quite large and signed with significant portion, namely around 47% in 30 horizons period. meanwhile, during post, crisis, and pre-crisis, the portion is considered weak, (see table 4) and also see table 5 in appendix. according to above results, we sum up that (1) the process of direct pass through is higher and considered higher during the post crisis, in particular, post itf implementation, (2) the exchange rate channel can empirically explain the significant role of direct effect pass through only during post crisis, particularly, post itf implementation. therefore, in a nutshell, transmission mechanism through exchange rate channel yet stands as a good signal to expound the process of direct pass through effect in indonesia. 3. concerning the role of exchange rate in explaining the trade balance competitiveness given a condition in which exchange rate channel is considered very important during pre and post crisis, particularly, transmitting monetary policy under various exchange rate table 2. co-integration tests – trace and maximum eigenvalue tests (ner and inf) ho trace test maximum eigenvalue test pre crisis crisis post crisis post itf pre crisis crisis post crisis post itf r=0 14.646 18.328 15.773 6.525 12.368 14.687 13.176 5.545 r<1 2.277 3.641 2.596 0.979 2.277 3.641 2.596 0.979 *,**,*** denote significance at better that 10%, 5%, and 1% evaluating monetary transmission mechanism... (dimas bagus, salina) 97 regime and directed to achieve a desired level of inflation. looking at trade balance equilibrium, we might have known that export and import would be also affected by some shocks occurred in exchange rate. however, some economists expect that between export and import is co-integrated by econometric point of view so that a country (indonesia) is not in violation of her international budget constraints, (see table 6), and also table 5 in appendix. according to above results, they suggest that during various period, between export and import is co-integrated so that we accept above mention condition which states indonesian economy is not in violation of her international budget constraint and structurally immune from shock, for instance, through exchange rate channel. in a nutshell, exchange rate channel does not give an extra harmful situation to trade balance, during pre as well as post period. in other words, exchange rate channel cannot be used as a good channel to explain trade competitiveness in indonesia. conclusion in general, the study shows that monetary transmission through exchange rate channel has been responded differently. in the post-crisis, notably during post itp implementation, transmission channel through exchange rate becomes a less powerful tool to trace and guide inflation rate in indonesia. transmission mechanism through exchange rate channel yet stands a good signal to explain the process of direct pass through effect in indonesia. exchange rate channel does not give an extra harmful situation to trade balance, during pre and post crisis period. in other words, exchange rate channel cannot be used as a good channel to explain trade competitiveness in indonesia. an appreciation of the exchange rate is more favorable for the indonesian economy to boost economic growth and to lessen inflationary pressure. based on the findings of the study, it can be implied that as direct pass through has a higher magnitude over time, a depreciation of the exchange rate will slow down the economy. the relative high direct pass through, however does not affect the trade balance due to the existence of co-integration between export and import with exchange rate channel. after itf implementation, exchange rate channel is less powerful to achieve the policy target. therefore, an appreciation of the exchange rate is more favorable for the indonesian economy to boost economy growth and to lessen inflationary pressure. exchange rate appreciation will bring inflation down through its direct pass through effect on production cost. indeed. at a certain level, it would also support export of manufacturing products with high import content. direct pass through is higher in crisis period as well as itf according to vdc results. it may reflect that indonesian economy is more table 6. co-integration tests – trace and maximum eigenvalue tests (xp and mp) ho trace test maximum eigenvalue test pre crisis crisis post crisis post itf pre crisis crisis post crisis post itf r=0 15.875 14.851* 14.052 27.274** 12.358 14.848* 12.302 21.596** r<1 3.516 0.002 1.749 5.678 3.516 0.002 1.749 5.678 note: *,**,*** denote significance at better that 10%, 5%, and 1%. table 4. co-integration tests – trace and maximum eigenvalue tests (ner and imp) ho trace test maximum eigenvalue test pre crisis crisis post crisis post itf pre crisis crisis post crisis post itf r=0 15.875 14.851* 14.052 27.274** 12.358 14.848* 12.302 21.596** r<1 3.516 0.002 1.749 5.678 3.516 0.002 1.749 5.678 note: *,**,*** denote significance at better that 10%, 5%, and 1% jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 2, oktober 2013: 91-100 98 opened and liberalized over global markets. therefore, we may view that frankly, the rise of inflation post itf and later being transmitted into domestic economy through exchange rate channel, which then generates the higher degree of direct pass through effect, is not caused by solely exchange rate role and contribution. however, it has been contributed by state bank as well as private banks which increasingly are expanding their share of the lending market. given rigidities in nominal wages, the mundell-fleeming postulates that for small open economies, an exchange rate appreciation would hurt exports and encourage imports. in varying degrees, exporters maintain competitiveness in world markets by reducing their profit mark-up in the face of an appreciating currency. however, input-output economies argue that such theory might be irrelevant since exports perhaps depend in also varying degree in imported raw materials and imported intermediate inputs. therefore, in the case of indonesia which empirically conveys mostly in all period under observations, in particular, between export and import is serially co-integrated. hence, we summarize that: (1) in general, the higher the imported input content, the less the impact of exchange rate changes on export. at one extreme, we may suggest that 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(2006). exchange rate passthrough in asia: what does the literature tell us? department of economics, claremont graduate university appendix table 3. variance decomposition function between ner and inf horizon explained by innovation in ner to inf pre-crisis crisis post-crisis post itf 2 2.539 15.023 20.647 0.016 4 5.121 22.900 47.042 0.0164 8 7.019 22.633 68.159 0.288 12 7.747 20.521 72.795 0.672 16 8.226 19.783 74.189 0.909 20 8.654 19.854 74.692 1.017 24 9.082 19.972 74.888 1.058 28 9.526 19.988 74.966 1.072 30 9.755 19.982 74.986 1.075 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 2, oktober 2013: 91-100 100 table 5. variance decomposition function between ner and mp horizon explained by innovation in ner to mp pre-crisis crisis post-crisis post itf 2 0.141 1.073 0.016 4.558 4 0.220 1.316 0.629 14.105 8 0.228 1.353 4.278 33.574 12 0.227 1.351 7.489 44.379 16 0.227 1.351 9.499 47.316 20 0.227 1.351 10.701 46.661 24 0.227 1.351 11.431 46.183 28 0.227 1.351 11.884 46.569 30 0.227 1.351 12.044 46.822 microsoft word 03-didin jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 2, oktober 2013, hlm.120-126 determinan pertumbuhan ekonomi di daerah istimewa yogyakarta, indonesia didin wahyudin1, imamudin yuliadi2 1 kospin jasa syariah magelang jl. singosari no.27, magelang, jawa tengah, indonesia, phone: +62 293 366242 2 fakultas ekonomi, universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta, jl. lingkar selatan, bantul, yogyakarta 55183 indonesia, phone: +62 274 387656 e-mail korespondensi: imamudin2006@yahoo.co.id naskah diterima: januari 2013; disetujui: september 2013 abstract: the study aims to know the influence of the domestic investment capital or penanaman modal dalam negeri (pdmn), the foreign direct investment (fdi), and anggaran pengeluaran belanja daerah (apbd), and the labor toward the economic growth in 5 regions/cities in diy between 2006-2012. the data that is used in this study is the secondary data, with the time series model (2006-2012) and the cross section model (5 regions in diy). the result shows that the pdmn has positive influence and is significant; the increasing number of pdmn around 1% will make the economic growth increases 0, 10 in each region in diy. the apbd also has positive influence and significant; the increasing number of apbd around 1% will make the economic growth increases 0, 10. the labor has negative impact and significant; the increasing number of labor around 1% will make the economic growth decreases -0,67 in each region in diy, it shows that the marginal utility of labor will increase the marginal utility of production. the marginal utility production will keep increasing if the labor keeps adding until maximum. when the production reaches maximum the increasing number of total labor will decrease the total production (tp) that will make the production negative. keywords: economic growth; domestic capital investment; the foreign direct investment jel classification: p25, r11 abstrak: studi ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh penanaman modal dalam negeri (pmdn), penanaman modal asing (pma), anggaran pengeluaran belanja daerah (apbd), dan tenaga kerja terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di 5 kabupaten/kota di diy pada tahun 20062012. data yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah data sekunder, dalam bentuk time series (2006-2012) dan cross section (5 kabupaten/kota di diy. alat analisis yang digunakan adalah data panel dengan bantuan eviews 6. hasil studi ini menunjukkan bahwa pmdn berpengaruh positif dan signifikan, peningkatan pmdn sebesar satu persen maka pertumbuhan ekonomi di setiap kabupaten/kota di diy mengalami kenaikan sebesar 0,10. apbd berpengaruh positif dan signifikan, peningkatan apbd sebesar satu persen maka pertumbuhan ekonomi di setiap kabupaten/kota di diy mengalami kenaikan sebesar 0,10. tenaga kerja berpengaruh negative dan signifikan. peningkatan tenaga kerja sebesar satu persen maka pertumbuhan ekonomi di setiap kabupaten/kota di diy mengalami penurunan sebesar -0,67, hal ini dikarenakan dimana peningkatan marginal jumlah tenaga kerja akan meningkatkan marginal produksi. peningkatan marginal produksi akan terus bertambah jika jumlah tenaga kerja terus ditambah hingga mencapai jumlah produksi maksimal. pada saat jumlah produksi maksimal penambahan jumlah tenaga kerja akan menurunkan jumlah produksi (tp) sehingga produksi akan bernilai negatif kata kunci: pertumbuhan ekonomi; penanaman modal dalam negeri; penanaman modal asing; anggaran pengeluaran belanja daerah klasifikasi jel: p25, r11 determinan pertumbuhan ekonomi ... (didin wahyudin, imamudin yuliadi) 121 pendahuluan pembangunan pada dasarnya merupakan proses multidimensial yang meliputi perubahan struktur sosial, perubahan dalam sikap hidup masyarakat dan perubahan dalam kelembagaan (institusi) nasional. pembangunan juga meliputi perubahan dalam tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi, pengurangan ketimpangan pendapatan dan pemberantasan kemiskinan. salah satu indikator untuk mengukur keberhasilan pembangunan dalam suatu negara adalah pertumbuhan ekonomi. pertumbuhan dapat diartikan sebagai gambaran mengenai dampak dari kebijakan-kebijakan pemerintah yang dilaksanakan dalam bidang ekonomi. menurut boediono (1999) negara indonesia mempunyai impian yakni pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional di tahun depan mencapai 7% hal itu merupakan bukan hal yang mustahil menurut sunarsip (chief economist the indonesia economic intelligence) menyatakan ini bisa tercapai dengan dorongan kuat pada empat faktor kunci: pertama, mendorong pertumbuhan investasi minimal 12 persen. kedua, mendorong pertumbuhan produktivitas tenaga kerja hingga 60 persen. ketiga, mendorong pertumbuhan di atas tujuh persen untuk sektor manufaktur atau selevel dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi sebelum krisis 1997-1999. keempat, mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah supaya lebih agresif. (republika online senin, 17 maret 2013). tujuan pembangunan ekonomi di samping untuk meningkatkan pendapatan nasional riil juga untuk meningkatkan produktivitas. produk domestik regional bruto (pdrb) merupakan salah satu indikator untuk menunjuk tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi suatu daerah. kontradiksi yang terjadi selama tiga triwulan berturut-turut telah mengaki batkan pertumbuhan ekonomi diy (daerah istimewa yogyakarta) selama tahun 2004 hanya mampu tumbuh sebesar 4,88 persen. secara sektoral, kontraksi perekonomian yang terjadi selama triwulan iv-2004 dipengaruhi oleh pertumbuhan negatif tiga sektor ekonomi yaitu (i) sektor pertanian, (ii) sektor keuangan, persewaan dan jasa perusahaan serta (iii) sektor jasa-jasa yang masing-masing kontraksi sebesar 44,52 persen; 15,02 persen dan 3,41 persen. penurunan kegiatan ekonomi pada sektor pertanian lebih disebabkan oleh faktor musim kemarau yang cukup panjang, sehingga produktivitas pertanian terutama pada sub sektor tanaman bahan makanan mengalami penurunan sebesar 61,38 persen khususnya untuk komoditas padi, ketela pohon, kacang kedelai dan kacang hijau. sementara itu, subsektor peternakan mengalami peningkatan sebesar 6,47 persen, namun demikian mengingat andil subsektor ini tidak terlalu besar pada sektor pertanian maka kenaikan tersebut tidak berpengaruh secara signifikan (sumartono dkk, 2005). masalah fundamental yang dihadapi oleh pemerintah provinsi diy adalah kemiskinan dan ketimpangan, di mana ada kecendrungan bahwa ketimpangan ini meningkat sepanjang waktu. ada daerah yang relatif sangat kaya (kota yogyakarta) dan daerah yang relatif miskin (kabupaten kupon progo). peningkatan ketimpangan ini disebabkan oleh pola pembangunan yang berbeda antardaerah. beberapa daerah di provinsi diy memiliki visi yang tidak jelas, baik indikator maupun waktu pencapaiannya, di samping seringkali visi daerah tersebut tidak didukung oleh potensi yang dimiliki tabel 1. target dan realisasi penanaman modal diy (dalam jutaan rupiah) tahun pmdn pertumbuhan pmdn (%) pma pertumbuhan pma (%) total pertumbuhan 2004 2.401.966 1,519,269 3.921.236 2005 2.251.066 -6,28 1,843,675 21,35 4.094.742 4,42 2006 2.144.879 -4,72 1,879,787 1,96 4.024.666 -1,71 2007 1.801.533 -16,01 2,278,166 21,19 4.079.700 1,37 2008 1.806.426 0,27 2,415,461 6,03 4.221.888. 3,49 2009 1.882.514 4,21 2,508,131 3,84 4.390.645 4,00 2010 1.884.925 0,13 2,696,046 7,49 4.580.972 4,33 2011 2.313.141 22,72 4,110,436 52,46 6.423.578 40,22 2012* 2.901.795 25,45 4,174,341, 1,55 7.076.136 10,16 2013* 3.495.807 20,47 4,287,734 2,72 7.783.542 10,00 sumber :bkpm provinsi diy jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 2, oktober 2013: 120-126 122 oleh daerah (restiatun, 2009). dalam perekonomian terbuka, pertumbuhan ekonomi tidak hanya dipengaruhi oleh aktivitas perekonomian di wilayah tersebut namun juga dipengaruhi oleh perekonomian global. demikian halnya dengan perekonomian di diy, tidak hanya dipengaruhi oleh aktivitas ekonomi penduduk diy namun juga dipengaruhi oleh faktor-faktor luar seperti kondisi ekonomi nasional dan bahkan ekonomi global. perkembangan investasi di provinsi daerah istimewa yogyakarta menunjukkan pertumbuhan yang signifikan pada 5 tahun terakhir, sebagaimana tersaji dalam tabel 1. peningkatan yang paling besar terjadi pada tahun 2011, karena realisasi perusahaan baru, perluasan perusahaan yang telah merealisasikan investasinya pada tahun-tahun sebelumnya, renovasi/peremajaan/restruksturisasi perusahaan yang tentunya juga berimplikasi pada penambahan investasi. besaran kontribusi pertumbuhan investasi yang berasal dari perusahaan pmdn tersebut: rp428.217.825.987,(22,72%) dan perusahaan pma sebesar: rp1.414.389.366.777, (52,46%) dari nilai total pertumbuhan investasi hingga desember 2011 yang sebesar: rp1.842.607.192.764,(terdapat pertumbuhan dengan nilai 40,22% dari realisasi investasi tahun 2010). sampai dengan tahun 2011, perusahaan yang merealisasikan investasinya (aktif) di diy sejumlah 219 perusahaan (terdiri dari 104 perusahaan pma dan 115 perusahaan pmdn) dari total 331 perusahaan (182 perusahaan pma; 149 perusahaan pmdn) yang terdaftar. adapun total serapan tenaga kerja dari realisasi investasi tersebut sebanyak 38.89 6 tenaga kerja indonesia (tki) serta 128 tenaga kerja asing (tka). metode penelitian jenis dan sumber data jenis data yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah data sekunder yang diperoleh dari badan pusat statistik diy serta sumber lain yang terkait dengan studi ini. daerah penelitian yang digunakan adalah seluruh kabupaten dan kota yang ada di daerah istimewa yogyakarta, yang terdiri dari 4 kabupaten dan 1 kota madya yaitu: (1) kabupaten bantul; (2) kabupaten gunung kidul; (3) kabupaten kulonprogo; (4) kabupaten sleman dan (5) kota yogyakarta. variabel dependen yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah pdrb (pertumbuhan ekonomi) sedangkan variabel independen yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah tenaga kerja, belanja modal, penanaman modal dalam negeri dan penanaman modal asing analisis data alat analisis yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah analisis regresi data panel. menurut ajija, dkk (2011:51) ada tiga metode yang digunakan untuk data panel: 1) model pooled least square (common effect) model ini dikenal dengan estimasi common effect yaitu teknik regresi yang paling sederhana untuk mengestimasi data panel dengan cara hanya mengkombinasikan data time series dan sumber : bkpm provinsi diy gambar 1. pertumbuhan investasi tahun 2005 sampai dengan desember 2013 a b c determinan pertumbuhan ekonomi ... (didin wahyudin, imamudin yuliadi) 123 cross section. model ini hanya menggabungkan data tersebut tanpa melihat perbedaan antarwaktu dan individu sehingga dapat dikatakan bahwa model ini sama halnya dengan metode ordinary least square (ols) karena menggunakan kuadrat terkecil biasa. 2) model pendekatan efek tetap (fixed effect) pendekatan model ini menggunakan variabel boneka atau dummy yang dikenal dengan sebutan model efek tetap (fixed effect) atau least square dummy variable atau disebut juga covariance model. pada metode fixed effect estimasi dapat dilakukan dengan tanpa pembobot (no weight) atau least square dummy variable (lsdv) dan dengan pembobot (cross section weight) atau general least square (gls). 3) model pendekatan efek acak (random effect) model data panel pendekatan ketiga yaitu model efek acak (random effect). dalam model efek acak, parameter-parameter yang berbeda antar daerah maupun antarwaktu dimasukan ke dalam error. karena hal inilah, model efek acak juga disebut model komponen error (error component model). keputusan penggunaan model efek tetap ataupun acak ditentukan dengan menggunakan uji hausman. dengan ketentuan apabila probabilitas yang dihasilkan signifikan dengan alpha maka dapat digunakan me tode fixed effect namun apabila sebaliknya maka dapat memilih salah satu yang terbaik antara model fixed dengan random effect hasil dan pembahasan hasil analisis pada tabel 2 memperlihatkan bahwa metode estimasi yang terpilih adalah random effect. dipilihnya random effect karena memiliki nilai probabilitas masing-masing variabel independen dari random effect lebih signifikan dibanding fixed effect atau common effect yang masing-masing variabel independennya tidak signifikan semua sehingga model yang lebih baik yaitu random effect. setelah terpilih metode random effect, kemudian akan dilanjutkan dengan melakukan regresi random effect. hasil estimasi menunjukkan pengaruh penanaman modal dalam negeri (pmdn) terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi diperoleh nilai koefisien sebesar 0,109817 dengan signifikansi 0,0000 artinya pmdn < 0,005 maka pmdn berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di diy tahun 2006 sampai 2012. hal ini menunjukan bahwa pengaruh pmdn terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di diy memiliki hubungan yang positif. hal ini sesuai juga dengan teori yang dikemukakan oleh tabel 2. hasil estimasi pengaruh penanaman modal dalam negeri, penanaman modal asing, belanja modal, tenaga kerja terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di daerah istimewa yogyakarta. variabel dependen : pdrb model common effect fixed effect random effect konstanta 14,85402 12,63995 14,04644 standar error 0,768984 2,108406 0,309131 probabilitas 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 penanaman modal dalam negeri 0,107496 -0,008014 0,109817 standar error 0,035390 0,019457 0,006011 probabilitas 0,0049 0,6838 0,0000 penanaman modal asing 0,019578 0,006760 0,019549 standar error 0,008774 0,003633 0,001670 probabilitas 0,0333 0,0741 0,0000 belanja modal -0,000808 -0,002225 0,102865 standar error 0,005989 0,002285 0,034246 probabilitas 0,8936 0,3390 0,0062 tenaga kerja -0,632432 0,028985 -0,670749 standar error 0,124179 0,382403 0,022955 probabilitas 0,0000 0,9402 0,0000 r2 0,604206 0,953926 0,620553 fstatistik 11,44926 67,28909 3,925001 probabilitas 0,000009 0,000000 0,002921 durbin-watson stat 0,748405 0,457604 0,763497 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 2, oktober 2013: 120-126 124 harold dan domar (dalam jhingan 1999) yang memberikan peranan kunci kepada investasi terhadap peranannya dalam proses pertumbuhan ekonomi. studi yang sama juga dilakukan oleh fitrah afrizal (2013), di mana pmdn berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pdrb. semakin meningkatnya investasi dalam hal ini pmdn yang dilakukan oleh pemerintah, maka ketersediaan barang publik akan meningkat dan akan mendorong peningkatan pdrb. tabel 3. hasil estimasi model variabel dependen : pdrb model random effect konstanta 14,04644 standar error 0,309131 probabilitas 0,0000 penanaman modal dalam negeri 0,109817 standar error 0,006011 probabilitas 0,0000 koefisien 0,109817 penanaman modal asing 0,019549 standar error 0,001670 probabilitas 0,0000 koefisien 0,019549 belanja modal 0,102865 standar error 0,034246 probabilitas 0,0062 koefisien 0,102865 tenaga kerja -0,670749 standar error 0,022955 probabilitas 0,0000 koefisien -0,670749 r2 0,620553 fstatistik 3,925001 probabilitas 0,002921 durbin-watson stat 0,763497 pengaruh penanaman modal asing terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, diperoleh nilai koefisien sebesar 0,019549 dengan signifikansi 0,0000 artinya pma < 0,005 maka pma berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di diy tahun 2006 sampai 2012. hal ini menunjukan bahwa pengaruh pma terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di diy memiliki hubungan yang positif. hal ini sesuai dengan studi arwiny fajriah anwar (2011). investasi luar negeri dalam hal ini berperan aktif dalam mendorong perekonomian suatu wilayah baik dalam peran kemajuan teknologi yang dimiliki oleh pihak asing, maupun jaringan kuat terhadap lembaga internasional dan pasar global. pengaruh belanja modal terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, diperoleh nilai koefisien sebesar 0,102865 dengan signifikansi 0.0062 artinya belanja modal > 0,005 maka belanja modal berpengaruh positif dan tidak signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di diy tahun 2006 sampai 2012. hal ini menunjukan bahwa pengaruh belanja modal terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di diy memiliki hubungan yang positif hal ini sesuai dengan studi yang dilakukan oleh mohammad rizal mubaroq dkk. yang menyatakan bahwa belanja modal berpengaruh positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. pengaruh tenaga kerja terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi diperoleh nilai koefisien sebesar -0,670749 dengan signifikansi 0,0000 artinya tenaga kerja < 0,005 maka tenaga kerja berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di diy tahun 2006 sampai 2012. hal ini menunjukan bahwa pengaruh tenaga kerja terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di diy adalah negatif. adanya ketidak sesuaiannya dengan teori yang selama ini berlaku, menurut teori yang dikemukakan oleh harrod domar bahwa kenaikan tingkat output dan tenaga kerja dapat dilakukan dengan adanya akumulasi modal (investasi) dan tabungan. hal ini sesuai dengan studi yang dilakukan oleh dimas dan woyanti (2009) yang menyatakan bahwa adanya ketidak sesuaian dengan teori tersebut dikarenakan dari sifat investasi itu sendiri, seperti diketahui bahwa negara-negara maju memiliki faktor produksi yang padat modal, sehingga investasi yang mereka tanamkan di negara berkembang seperti indonesia mengikuti teknik yang mereka kembangkan atau terapkan di negara asalnya yakni yang cenderung padat modal. sebab inilah yang membuat tingkat investasi asing cenderung mengurangi jumlah tenaga kerja, karena teknik yang padat modal dengan teknologi tinggi cenderung memiliki produktifitas dan efisiensi yang lebih baik sehingga untuk menghasilkan output yang sama besar hanya diperlukan tenaga kerja yang lebih sedikit. faktor penyebab kedua hubungan negatif adalah selain pilihan para pengusaha terhadap penggunaan modal yang lebih banyak yang sebenarnya rasional, tetapi juga disebabkan determinan pertumbuhan ekonomi ... (didin wahyudin, imamudin yuliadi) 125 oleh adanya bermacam-macam faktor strukural, kelembagaan, dan politik sehingga harga pasaran tenaga kerja menjadi lebih tinggi dibandingkan harga modal. lebih lanjut, struktur harga atau upah tenaga kerja menjadi sangat mahal karena adanya tekanan-tekanan politik dari serikat buruh, penetapan upah minimum oleh pemerintah, serta adanya aneka penggajian yang lebih tinggi dari perusahaan-perusahaan multinasional. akibat netto dari distorsi harga faktor produksi adalah terus meningkatnya penggunaan teknik padat modal khususnya sektor-sektor industri di perkotaan. ditinjau dari sudut kepentingan masyarakat atau perekonomian secara keseluruhan, hal tersebut jelas negatif karena biaya-biaya sosial penggunaan modal di bawah kapasitas terpasang dan rendahnya penyerapan tenaga kerja menjadi sangat tinggi. adapun sebab yang ketiga seperti yang dikemukakan oleh todaro (2000) adalah adanya akumulasi modal untuk pembelian mesin dan peralatan canggih yang tidak hanya memboroskan keuangan domestik serta devisa tetapi juga menghambat upaya-upaya dalam rangka menciptakan pertumbuhan penciptaan lapangan kerja baru. hambatan lainnya yaitu masih kurangnya syarat-syarat struktural, institusional, dan sikap-sikap yang diperlukan (seperti adanya pasar-pasar komoditi dan pasar uang yang terintegrasi dengan baik, tenaga kerja yang terdidik dan terlatih dalam hal ini kecakapan dan perencanaan manajemen yang baik, motivasi untuk berhasil, dan birokrasi pemerintah yang efisien) untuk mengubah modal baru secara efektif dan efisien menjadi output yang lebih besar dan penciptaan lapangan kerja baru. siagian (2010) mengemukakan bahwa tenaga kerja akan mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi, di mana peningkatan marginal jumlah tenaga kerja akan meningkatkan marginal produksi. peningkatan marginal produksi akan terus bertambah jika jumlah tenaga kerja terus ditambah hingga mencapai jumlah produksi maksimal. pada saat jumlah produksi maksimal (maximum total production, tp max) penambahan jumlah tenaga kerja akan menurunkan jumlah produksi (tp) sehingga produksi akan bernilai negatif. simpulan berdasarkan hasil analisis data dan pembahasan yang telah diurai, maka dapat diambil kesimpulan bahwa variabel pdrb di kota diy pada tahun 2006-2012 dipengaruhi oleh penanaman modal dalam negeri (pmdn), penanaman modal asing (pma), dan belanja modal secara positif, sedangkan tenaga kerja berpengaruh negatif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi (pdrb). beberapa saran yang diajukan yang berkaitan dengan hasil studi ini adalah: (1) pemerintah daerah diharapkan dapat meningkatkan iklim investasi pmdn di setiap kabupaten/ kota di diy dengan melalui kebijakan-kebijakan yang mendukung dengan cara memperbaiki sarana prasarana serta mempermudah peraturan untuk berinvestasi sehingga bisa meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi di diy dengan memanfaatkan sektor-sektor unggulan yang ada di kabupaten dan kota di provinsi diy. (2) pemerintah daerah diharapkan bisa menarik investasi asing dengan menciptakan iklim investasi yang kondusif di mana dengan adanya proses perizinan yang cepat serta tidak menghambat dan mampu meningkatkan kualitas sumber daya manusia sehingga bisa meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi setiap kabupaten/kota di diy. (3) pemerintah hendaknya memanfaatkan tenaga kerja sebagai upaya untuk meningkatkan kesejahteraan masyarakat dengan cara mengadakan adanya pelatihan-pelatihan untuk meningkatkan kualitas yang mampu bersaing dan memperluas kesempatan kerja guna mampu meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi di diy. (4) pemerintah daerah diharapkan bisa mengalokasikan belanja daerah dengan efektif untuk kepentingan publik dengan cara memperbaiki sarana prasarana yang menunjang pembangunan di daerah yang dapat meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi. (5) bagi peneliti selanjutnya, disarankan untuk menggunakan data tenaga kerja yang bekerja bukan angkatan kerja yang bekerja. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 2, oktober 2013: 120-126 126 daftar pustaka ajija, s. r, dkk. (2011). cara cerdas menguasai eviews. jakarta: salemba empat. boediono. (1999). teori pertumbuhan ekonomi. yogyakarta: bpfe. fitrah, a. (2013). analisis pengaruh tingkat investasi, belanja pemerintah dan tenaga kerja terhadap pdrb di provinsi sulawesi selatan tahun 2001-2011. skripsi. universitas hasanuddin. makassar gujarati, d. r. (2012). dasar-dasar ekonometrika. jakarta: salemba empat. hudiyanto, (2001). pengantar ekonomi pembangunan. yogyakarta: bpfe jhingan m.l. (1999). ekonomi pembangunan dan perencanaan. edisi ketujuh, jakarta: pt raja grafindo persada. laporan keterangan pertanggungjawaban (lkpj) kepala daerah istimewa yogyakarta akhir tahun anggaran 2013. penyusunan data perijinan perusahaan pma/ pmdn se provinsi diy, 2013. bkpm diy restiatun. (2009). identifikasi sektor unggulan dan ketimpangan antarkabupaten/kota di provinsi daerah istimewa yogyakarta. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan, volume 10, nomor 1: 77-98. siagian, altito, r. (2010). dampak desentralisasi fiskal terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah dan ketimpangan wilayah (studi kasus provinsi jawa barat), jurnal ekonomi, universitas diponegoro semarang. sumartono, et.al. (2007) perkembangan ekonomi regional daerah istimewa yogyakarta triwulan iv-2004. jurnal ekonomi dan bisnis, vol.20, no. 1: 1-22. sumodiningrat, g. (2010). ekonometrika pengantar. yogyakarta: bpfe. todaro, m.p. (2000). pembangunan ekonomi di dunia ketiga. edisi ke tujuh (diterjemahkan oleh haris munawar), jakarta: erlangga. www.bps.go.id (di akses tanggal 16 maret 2013) www.republika.co.id (diakses tanggal 17 maret 2012) jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 21 nomor 2, oktober 2020 article type: research paper establishing food business of local stateowned enterprises in agriculture and agribusiness maryunani abstract: the agricultural sector contributes positively to regional economic development. however, current government programs tend to prioritize only on the supply side. it can cause an imbalance between demand, supply, and market inefficiency. to overcome the problems, the regional government can establish a food bumd, especially in east java. this research aims to formulate a strategy for establishing a food bumd as a step in developing agriculture and agribusiness in east java. the analysis method used was swot by examining internal and external factors as the basis for efficient strategy formulation. the results showed that east java's agricultural conditions were in quadrant i (aggressive strategy). recommended strategies that can be done are mapping and prospecting agricultural production in each region, maximizing infrastructure and social capital to build a supply and value chain, maximizing the marketing of agricultural products through information and technology to reach a broader market. besides, developing the potential areas to agropolitan area, assisting young agricultural entrepreneurs, and formulating policies to facilitate local agricultural product marketing are suggested. the establishment of the east java food bumd is a strategic step with significant support for the east java economy and can create strong cooperation with small farmers and strengthen social capital (trust, norm, and networking). therefore, it will create a balance of supply and demand in the market, which increases the economic level of east java people. keywords: agriculture; food bumd; swot analysis jel classification: q13, e02 introduction regional economic development has a close relationship with each potential sector's role, such as the agricultural sector and government policies, to optimize and increase original local revenue (pad). it contributes to an increase in gdp, can be an imported product, provides raw materials, reduces poverty, and absorbs labor (haryono, 2013; rusliyadi & libin, 2018). according to bps (2013), east java has become the most contributing province in the indonesian agricultural sector due to the high level of agglomeration of agricultural products, as indicated by a contribution of 13% 14% in the national economy ( arman, achsani, & fauz, 2016). it underlies that over the last few decades, east java has been included in the second-largest contributing province to the indonesian economy with a stable and moderate growth rate (world bank, 2011). affiliation: department of economics, faculty of economics and business, universitas brawijaya, malang, indonesia. *correspondence: maryunani200216@yahoo.com this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.21.2.5043 citation: maryunani. (2020). establishing food business of local stateowned enterprises in agriculture and agribusiness. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 21(2), 222234. article history received: 28 apr 2020 reviewed: 07 july 2020 19 sep 2020 revised: 23 july 2020 25 sep 2020 accepted: 08 oct 2020 mailto:maryunani200216@yahoo.com http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/8698 http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp maryunani establishing food business of local state-owned enterprises in agriculture and agribusiness jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 223 research results from khairiyakh, irham, and mulyo (2015) revealed that the agricultural sector is essential in east java because it can meet the national market needs. it can support national food needs due to a surplus on agriculture, livestock, and fishery commodities such as rice, maize, shallots, cattle, dairy cows, hens, and others. also, commodities like meat, eggs, milk, fruits, vegetables, ornamental plants, and biopharmaceuticals have a considerable potential to develop in east java. however, the comparative advantage that exists in east java is not accompanied by a robust agricultural sector. it was indicated by the agricultural productivity’s stagnation from 2012-2016, and in 2018, the agricultural sector’s role in east java was in the third rank and continued to decline from 2014 2018 by 1.66% (bps east java province, 2018). the central and local governments have planned and implemented many agricultural sector development programs in indonesia. however, the program still prioritizes the production aspect only (supply), for example, upsus pajale (special efforts for rice, maize, and soybeans), fertilizer assistance, credit assistance, one village one product (ovop), and others. these programs are too focused on the supply side without paying attention to the demand side, and it can lead to an imbalance between supply and demand, which can harm producers (in surplus) and consumers (in deficit). the large supply capacity of the agricultural sector can lead to an oversupply of agricultural products. with inelastic demand conditions, it can result in a decline and fluctuation in commodity prices. a study conducted by sukesi, rahayuningrum and widyanti (2008) disclosed that the shallot oversupply in brebes regency impacted shallot farmers, where there was very low-price fluctuation at the consumer level. besides, the study conducted by wirabrata (2019) also explained that the oversupply of broilers had a significant impact on reducing the selling price to the lowest price (idr. 8,000 idr. 10,000 per kilogram) from normal price (idr. 18,000 – idr. 21,000 per kilogram) in september 2018. if this continues, it can decrease east java's welfare, especially farmers who live in rural areas. it is the reason why many rural communities are trapped in poverty. both nationally and locally (east java), the agricultural sector has the same information asymmetry and unequal bargaining position problems. the next negative implication is the emergence of moral hazard in transactions that can harm economic growth and the achievement of equal opportunity and access. previous research by sukesi et al. (2008) stated that the steps to anticipate oversupply in agricultural products are to make trade arrangements, use the warehouse receipt system to obtain stable prices, carry out post-harvest management, and diversify and value-added on agricultural products by processing it into other valuable products. trade regulation can be carried out by forming units present in the market and playing the role to neutralize market inefficiencies and increase regional economic development contributions through regional original revenue (pad). the strategic step that government takes in the agricultural market is to establish a food information system for the community, which is then forwarded to the east java regional regulation number 2 of 2010 concerning governance of leading agricultural and fishery products in east java. in this regional regulation, the east java government's steps are the food bumd as the leading market for agribusiness products and commodities. it is previously under east java's regional government’s institution, transformed into an maryunani establishing food business of local state-owned enterprises in agriculture and agribusiness jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 224 independent and broader economic and social institution. the establishment of the east java food bumd is an effort taken by the regional government to respond to the slow progress in developing the agricultural sector. therefore, it is expected that the agricultural sector can become a contributor that can provide sufficient pad. it underlines the importance of establishing a food bumd. previous research related to the establishment of bumd was conducted by yani (2012), affirming that the basis for establishing bumd is a regional regulation with the consideration of a previous feasibility study that has been carried out on the prospects of the business sector and regional assets owned. moreover, one of east java’s policy formulations needed is government intervention to the market through food bumd. its presence is expected to be a step for suppressing inefficiencies in the market because it can become a government business institution that brings the market closer to production activities and food producers. the goal is to reduce poverty, strengthen economic fundamentals, and increase competitiveness through the emergence of supply and value chains. this research aims to analyze the internal and external factors and formulate a strategy for establishing food bumd as a step for agricultural and agribusiness development in east java. this research on strategies in the food bumd establishment is different from the previous research. it is because food bumd is one of the east java government’s plans to address price fluctuations from the agricultural sector more optimally. the strategy is based on east java's internal and external factors related to the agricultural sector, so the results can be used for considering the right steps to establish a more efficient and optimal food bumd. research method study site this research was conducted from october to december 2019. this study's locations were malang regency, jombang regency, nganjuk regency, kediri regency, blitar regency, and tulungagung regency. the selection of sample locations was based on criterion-based selection to get information about producers' diversity in agricultural production of food crops, horticultural agriculture, plantations, livestock, and fisheries. data collection primary data in this study included (1) data on the carrying capacity of farmers and agricultural institutions on food enterprises, (2) profitability on food commodities, and (3) food commodity market survey. in contrast, the secondary data needed were (1) data on food commodity prices between time and between regions in east-java, (2) data on eastjava food commodity exports, (3) data on east-java food commodity imports, (4) data on food commodity imports in various countries, and (5) other related data. the data collection technique was carried out with a survey to selected respondents in each area. the respondent's selection was based on criterion-based selection representing the food crops, horticulture, livestock, and fisheries. thus, the total respondents in this study were maryunani establishing food business of local state-owned enterprises in agriculture and agribusiness jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 225 244 respondents divided into batu city (48 respondents), blitar regency (45 respondents), jombang regency (20 respondents), kediri regency (20 respondents), malang regency (46 respondents), nganjuk regency (20 respondents), and tulungagung regency (45 respondents). data analysis the data were analyzed using descriptive analysis, and then for the strategy development, it used a swot analysis, consisting of strength (s), weakness (w), opportunity (o), and threat (t). the swot analysis model compared opportunities and threats as external factors with strengths and weaknesses as internal research factors. internal factors were analyzed on the ifas matrix (internal strategic factor analysis summary), and external factors were investigated on the efas matrix (external strategic factor analysis summary) (wasike, magothe, kahi, & peters, 2011). there were three stages in the swot analysis, i.e., (i) calculation of scores and weights of each component on the ifas and efas matrix, (ii) prediction of strategies based on awareness, and (iii) finding the position of existing conditions in the swot quadrant. hence, according to rangkuti (2004), the swot analysis results would produce alternative strategies, as follows: 1. s-o strategy (strengths-opportunities) is a strategy that maximizes the strength to take existing opportunities. 2. s-t strategy (strengths-threats) is a strategy that maximizes the strength to overcome threats that are expected to be faced. 3. w-o strategy (weaknesses-opportunities) is a strategy to take advantage of opportunities to minimize weaknesses. 4. w-t strategy (weaknesses-threats) is a strategy to overcome threats and minimize weaknesses. result and discussion the results indicated that internal factors, consisting of strengths and weaknesses, and external factors, including opportunities and threats, could be displayed, as follows: maryunani establishing food business of local state-owned enterprises in agriculture and agribusiness jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 226 table 1 ifas matrix no aspect rating weight score strengths 1 east-java province has a comparative advantage in supporting food bumd. 4 0.10 0.4 2 vast human resources to develop the agricultural sector 2 0.05 0.1 3 potential local institutions supporting food bumd 2 0.03 0.06 4 there have been previous policies related to markets and agricultural institutions. 4 0.02 0.08 5 there are trading partners both at home and abroad. 3 0.02 0.06 6 social capital that is good enough to be transformed into an economic capacity 3 0.03 0.09 7 the regional infrastructure is very good. 3 0.05 0.15 8 there is support for local government policy to form the food bumd. 4 0.15 0.6 9 the agricultural sector’s human resources are relatively longtime experienced and have the resilience of working in agricultural production. 3 0.05 0.15 total strengths 1.69 weaknesses 1 a weak partnership was built before. 3 0.02 0.06 2 weak levels of entrepreneurship in agricultural producers 2 0.02 0.04 3 weak innovation and research in agriculture 3 0.01 0.03 4 the positioning of agricultural products from the community is still relatively low compared to imported products. 4 0.03 0.12 5 the pattern of agricultural business transactions, in general, is still transactional and tends to be exploitative. 2 0.03 0.06 6 dispersal patterns in agribusiness systems 3 0.01 0.03 7 share poverty occurs in many areas in east-java province due to the workforce’s low structural transformation from the agricultural sector. 2 0.01 0.02 8 resource degradation and decreased carrying capacity of land and water in agricultural production 4 0.04 0.16 9 agricultural production planning is still very weak. 3 0.05 0.15 10 agricultural producers are price takers in both the input and output markets. 3 0.04 0.12 11 the bargaining position is very weak from agricultural producers. 2 0.05 0.1 12 production centers scattered in small volumes of information asymmetry in agricultural transactions. 2 0.05 0.1 13 information asymmetry in agricultural transactions 3 0.04 0.12 14 there is no market for agricultural products that increases market reach and competitiveness. 3 0.10 0.3 total weaknesses (b) total internal (a-b) 1.41 0,28 source: data analyzed, 2019 table 1 shows that internal factors were strengths and weaknesses, with the total score on the strength element was 1.69, and the total score on the weakness was 1.41. based on these values, the strengths of the agricultural sector in east java were better than its weaknesses and could be considered to develop a suitable strategy for the food bumd establishment in east java. the strategy can consider a comparative advantage of the agricultural sector in east java. this advantage emerged because surplus and increased maryunani establishing food business of local state-owned enterprises in agriculture and agribusiness jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 227 agricultural production in east java could meet indonesia's food needs. increased agricultural production occurred in several horticultural commodities such as garlic, paprika, cauliflower, cantaloupe, spinach, turnips, and cayenne pepper. it was supported by research results from syaifullah (2013) and data from east java agricultural service annual report (2012), which exposed that paddy production commodities, food crops, and horticultural crops have made east java one of the food buffers in indonesia and as a province that capable of contributing 13% 14% of the national economy. besides from comparative advantage, east java infrastructure is considered as an essential in strength elements. according to the world bank (2011), east java infrastructure was classified as decent in urban areas but still lacking in rural areas. agricultural human resources (hr) were classified as farmers and agricultural extension workers. further, azhar’s (2010) research revealed a significant relationship between agricultural extension workers' and farmers' performance because they had a relatively good performance and could improve institutional programs (sunartomo, 2016). due to the existence of the 2019-2024 east java rpjmd, plans for the development of primary human development capital are included. the plan consists of improving the quality of human resources and equitable development so that east java's agricultural sector can become the largest agribusiness center in southeast asia. on the market weaknesses of agricultural products in east java, the majority were still on a district or sub-district scale. the distribution and sale of agricultural products could not be optimal directly from production to consumers, and the majority were still through intermediaries (distributors). agriculture in east java was still classified as weak because most farmers still depended on the season to cultivate the land. this dependence could cause production fluctuations and become unstable. it could also decrease farmers’ income. besides, inefficient production planning could cause other problems, such as land degradation and decreased environmental carrying capacity. also, due to the change in land use from forests to agricultural and residential areas, planting homogeneous plants with fewer quality seeds and excessive use of chemical pesticides could lead to unsustainable agricultural practices. table 2 efas matrix no aspect rating weight score opportunity 1 information technology that facilitates communication and transactions 4 0.06 0.24 2 great potential for partnerships with research institutions for innovation and production technology improvement 4 0.03 0.12 3 potential to establish lp2b linkage programs, agropolitan, cooperatives, and others 4 0.04 0.16 4 potential to form economies of scale and competitiveness 3 0.06 0.18 5 high potential for downstream agricultural products 3 0.05 0.15 6 high potential to form value-added agricultural products 3 0.06 0.18 7 potential to form a supply and value chain 4 0.07 0.28 8 the potential implementation of regional agriculture and precision agriculture 4 0.06 0.24 9 potential for increasing community welfare (eliminating trade-off growth and inequality) 3 0.04 0.12 10 the emergence of young agricultural entrepreneurs 2 0.03 0.06 total opportunity (c) 1.73 maryunani establishing food business of local state-owned enterprises in agriculture and agribusiness jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 228 table 2 efas matrix (cont.) no aspect rating weight score threats 1 the threat of weather negatively affects agricultural production. 4 0.06 0.24 2 relatively high market competition with other agricultural producing countries (china, thailand, vietnam, malaysia, and others) 3 0.03 0.09 3 public demand-pull for quality products is still relatively low. 3 0.05 0.15 4 government policies are still scattered or not well integrated. 2 0.07 0.14 5 government policies are oriented to production and are weak towards agricultural development from the market side. 4 0.07 0.28 6 characteristics of the agricultural sector are low value-added and easily damaged. 3 0.07 0.21 7 the elasticity of demand for agricultural products is relatively low. 3 0.05 0.15 8 the elasticity of the supply of agricultural products is relatively low. 3 0.05 0.15 9 land conversion from agriculture to non-agriculture is high. 4 0.03 0.12 10 dirty and low agricultural stereotypes prevent superior human resources from working in agriculture. 3 0.02 0.06 total threats (d) 1.59 total external (c-d) 0.14 source: data analyzed, 2019. table 2 presents that external factors included opportunities and threats, with the total score on the opportunity element was 1.73, and the total score on the weakness element was 1.59. these values indicated that the opportunity element was more dominant than the agricultural sector's threat element and was considered an appropriate strategy for the food bumd establishment. in the east java supply chain, horticultural farm products have been evenly divided according to each actor's roles. however, conditions improvement around the supply chain needs to be completed to optimize the distribution system and develop agricultural products. actions that can be taken for a better supply chain system are to integrate with the information technology. the goal is to meet the quantity demanded from the market and stabilize the current price. technological innovations in the process of product storage and distribution can be carried out to optimize agricultural production, such as storing or freezing the agricultural products so that they are more durable and can be distributed in the remote area (tayibnapis and wuryaningsing, 2017). the considerable potential to build collaboration for the development and research of east java's agricultural sector is one of the driving components in implementing regional agriculture and precision agriculture. the east java region has already had five main agro-ecological zones with 30 sub-zones following agricultural commodity development conditions. in addition to applying regional agriculture, east java can also apply precision agriculture. precision agriculture uses inputs as efficiently as possible according to needs so a farmer can benefit from savings in financing, labor, time, and getting better results. (gebbers & adamchuck, 2010). these opportunities aspects cannot be significantly optimized if the threat aspects are not resolved efficiently. the threat that impacted the government's policy was still limited to the production component. this one-sided policy could increase the product's price because of the importance of making a profit, increasing market reach, and reducing labor wages (trail, 1984). several central and local government programs prioritize supply maryunani establishing food business of local state-owned enterprises in agriculture and agribusiness jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 229 aspects, including upsus pajale, fertilizer assistance, credit assistance, one village one product (ovop), and others. these policies’ weakness that focuses only on supply could make farmers less ready to face the season’s threat; even farmers in east java still had a season dependence on obtaining more optimal agricultural products. climate change’s threat that currently occurs can impact agriculture, such as decreasing natural resources (biodiversity, land, and water) (fao, 2019). besides, the agricultural sector's value-added was still low because most producers could only sell raw goods that already have a definite value and could not add value by processing and processing them first (ministry of finance of the republic of indonesia, 2012). determining the food bumd establishment's suitable strategy based on internal and external factor components can be using a grand strategy matrix. in the grand strategy matrix, the x-axis value is obtained from the difference between strengths and weaknesses (0.28). meanwhile, the y-axis value is obtained from the difference between opportunity and threat (0.14). this coordinate point location will determine the right strategy to be implemented following the description of internal and external factors regarding the conditions of agriculture, plantations, and livestock in east java, as a step in establishing food bumd. according to the grand strategy matrix, the strategy’s position can be seen in figure 1. figure 1 the strategic position of the formation of food bumd in east-java province source: data analyzed, 2019 the calculation result of internal and external factors in the grand strategy matrix revealed at quadrant one (i), and the recommended strategy to be implemented was aggressive. this strategy is an excellent situation development strategy because strengths can be used to seize profitable opportunities. it follows the ifas and efas matrix calculations results, which displayed that the strength and opportunity elements had a higher total score. research that has been conducted by karyono and agustina (2019) uncovered that this strategy could be used to implement e-government programs because of its strength, which supports the opportunity to achieve the desired goals. based on this, the chances of establishing the east java food bumd are getting higher because of the dominant maryunani establishing food business of local state-owned enterprises in agriculture and agribusiness jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 230 strength and opportunity factors. it indicates that east java province has optimal support to establish food bumd in overcoming market imbalances. several strategies that could be formulated based on internal and external factors can be seen in table 3. table 3 the swot analysis results on the grand strategy matrix internal external strength 1. having a comparative advantage 2. availability of human resources for agricultural development 3. potential of local institutions to support bumd 4. the existence of policies related to agricultural markets and institutions 5. the existence of domestic and foreign trade partners 6. adequate social capital 7. excellent regional infrastructure 8. there is support from local government policies. 9. agricultural-human resources are relatively experienced. weakness 1. weak cooperation 2. weak producer entrepreneurship 3. weak innovation and research in agriculture 4. the low positioning of local agricultural products 5. transactional and exploitative patterns of transactions 6. dispersal patterns in the agribusiness system 7. share poverty in east java 8. damage to resources 9. agricultural production planning is very weak. 10. price takers in markets only agricultural producers 11. the bargaining position is fragile. 12. production centers are scattered. 13. information asymmetry in agricultural transactions 14. there is no market for agricultural products. opportunities 1. the existence of technology for communication and transactions 2. potential for forming partnerships with research institutions 3. potential to establish linkage program for lp2b, agropolitan, cooperative, and others 4. the potential forms economies of scale and competitiveness 5. the downstream potential of agricultural products 6. potential to form the added value of agricultural products 7. potential to form supply and value chain 8. the potential implementation of regional agriculture and precision agriculture 9. potential for increasing community welfare 10. the emergence of young agricultural entrepreneurs strength – opportunities • mapping and prospecting the agricultural potential of each region for valuable products development • maximizing infrastructure and social capital to be able to form a supply and value chain also adding value to agricultural products • maximizing the marketing of superior agricultural comparative products by using information technology in order to reach a broader market (local and foreign) • directing the development of potential areas to become agropolitan areas • assisting young entrepreneurs in the agricultural sector • proposing government policies to make it easier to market local agricultural products weakness – opportunities • building collaborative works with research and academic institutions to increase agricultural innovation. • implementing an integrated agriculture area to concentrate the agricultural production center • create applications that facilitate information access between farmers, government, and partners • increasing entrepreneurship from producers by working with government programs threats 1. weather threat 2. relatively high market competition with other countries 3. low public demand 4. government policy is scattered in nature. 5. government policies are productionoriented and weak towards agricultural development from the market side. 6. agricultural characteristics are low added value and perishable. 7. the elasticity of product demand is relatively low. 8. relatively low product supply elasticity 9. change of land function 10. dirty and low farm stereotypes strength – threat • creating a better agricultural irrigation system • proposing cooperation contracts with abroad partners • formulating regional policies that has an advantage for the development of local agricultural products • reviewing regional policies related to the agricultural sector by taking consideration into social, infrastructure, and human resources capital. weakness – threat • branding on qualified local agricultural products to increase positioning, bargaining, and demand • directing local government policies to that support sustainable agricultural production systems • designing the production and marketing process of agricultural products from upstream to downstream source: data analyzed, 2019 table 4 shows several alternative strategies that could be used to establish a food bumd in east java based on the grand strategy matrix’s calculation, which was in quadrant i or the aggressive strategy. this strategy used strength to maximize opportunities. strategies that can be used are as follows: maryunani establishing food business of local state-owned enterprises in agriculture and agribusiness jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 231 strength – opportunities strategy: 1. mapping and prospecting the agricultural potential of each region for valuable products development 2. maximizing infrastructure and social capital to be able to form a supply and value chain also adding value to agricultural products 3. maximizing the marketing of superior agricultural comparative products by using information technology to reach a broader market (local and foreign market) 4. directing the development of a potential site to become agropolitan areas 5. assisting young entrepreneurs in the agricultural sector 6. proposing government policies to make it easier to market local agricultural products weakness – opportunities strategy: 1. building collaborative works with research and academic institutions to increase agricultural innovation. 2. implementing an integrated agriculture area to concentrate the agricultural production center 3. creating applications that facilitate information access between farmers, government, and partners 4. increasing entrepreneurship from producers by working with government programs strength – threat strategy: 1. creating a better agricultural irrigation system 2. proposing cooperation contracts with abroad partners 3. formulating regional policies that has an advantage for the development of local agricultural products 4. reviewing regional policies related to the agricultural sector by considering social, infrastructure, and human resources capital weakness – threat strategy: 1. branding on qualified local agricultural products to increase positioning, bargaining, and demand 2. directing local government policies to that support sustainable agricultural production systems 3. designing the production and marketing process of agricultural products from upstream to downstream internal strengths, such as comparative advantage, infrastructure, and adequately valuable human resources, can be aligned with opportunities to achieve the goal of establishing a food bumd in east java. it can also increase agricultural products’ competitiveness in east java, which has implications for the quality and economies of scale. the quality of agricultural products in east java results from good collaboration between food bumd, which has market information, and east java producers’ ability to adopt product attributes according to the market's qualifications. besides, it is in line with information and communication technology opportunities that can be utilized to market agricultural products and support for regional infrastructure that has begun to develop. moreover, creating a distribution channel with consumers can directly increase the maryunani establishing food business of local state-owned enterprises in agriculture and agribusiness jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 232 marketing area, and the use of renewable technology can provide efficiency in the production process and marketing process (budiman, tarigan, mardhatillah, sembiring, & teddy, 2018). in developing this strategy, local governments must also pay attention to the surrounding environmental conditions so that opportunities can be maximized and can support the leading forces in forming food businesses in east java (ingaldi & skurkova, 2014). in establishing the food bumd, the existing strengths’ characteristics can be added to the opportunity from several aspects of agriculture, infrastructure, and technology that can strengthen the economy of east-java. the establishment of east-java food bumd is a strategic step with significant economic leverage for east-java, especially in agribusiness development. food bumd also positively impacts production activities with the communication that develops into a strong partnership with small scale farmers and strengthens social capital, including trust, norms, and networking both in the context of relationships in the future with a broader market and backward relations with its suppliers. therefore, a balanced market between supply and demand will be created, which increases the economic level of the citizen in east-java. conclusion based on internal and external analysis of the establishment of food bumd, it showed that the strength was higher than the weaknesses, and the opportunities were higher than the threats. thus, the suitable strategy is aggressive that utilizes the strengths and opportunities to achieve the goals. the establishment of food bumd can be developed using internal strengths to take advantage of opportunities, reduce weaknesses, and deal with threats. the significant potential influence in establishing food bumd is considering the government's generous support in agribusiness development in east-java province. it is in line with the east-java government's goals to be the largest agribusiness center in southeast asia, as explicitly appears in the document of medium-term development planning of east-java province (rpjmd). the other significant strength owned by the agriculture sector in east-java is a comparative advantage, which can be transformed into a competitive advantage (competitiveness) with the induction of innovation, technology, transportation, and partnership support that can strengthen the development of eastjava food bumd. the stages of recommendations to the establishment of food bumd in east java are (1) initiation and implementation of cooperation carried out by communication of bumd business partners with producers, which can be then followed by making a functional design from upstream to downstream to be able to streamline and build market networking, (2) development of cooperation, scale-up, and scope of a business undertaken by increasing the frequency of communication with business partners and developing larger-scale networking supported by the development of integrated it-based agribusiness information, (3) realizing independence and increasing financial, managerial, and innovation capacity by developing new divisions to facilitate business objectives and maryunani establishing food business of local state-owned enterprises in agriculture and agribusiness jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 233 empowerment of food enterprises and creating an integration between domestic and foreign markets by collaborating with multinational companies. for further research, an important thing to do is benchmarking, finding out best practices and rational expectations in the future on the food bumd establishment, and conducting feasibility studies both in economic aspects, market as well as marketing aspects, financial aspects, and other needed, such as legislation aspects, technology availability aspects, and human resources aspects. acknowledgement the authors thank the development planning agency at east-java province (bappeda provinsi jawa timur) for funding this research. references arman, h.s., achsani, n. a., & fauzi, a. 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accepted: february 2013 abstract: poverty is the most recent problem for lots of countries in this century. lots of countries handled the poverty through economic policies which is influence by their own major religion belief. in indonesia, more than 87 percent belief in islam, but the stakeholder run the economics system in conventional economics. even though the primary economic principle that indonesia use is conventional, but in financing system for the society, indonesia using 2 methods; which are conventional and sharia financing system. the purposes of this study is to explore the products and approaches in sharia ways in microfinance which are pro poor strategies. it will describe the principal, products and also the effectiveness of performance for bmt help the poor people in rural areas. nowadays, bmt develop in indonesia for more than 3.300 unit and give loan to more than 1,5 million small and micro entrepreneurs. in this paper, it also explore one of the bmt in the bantul district, yogyakarta province as the case studies. this bmt called as bmt matahari which implement the proper sharia principles in banking system. in the last section of this journal will describe the weakness and strengthen of bmt among other microfinance. keywords: bmt (baitul maal wat tamwil); sharia-microfinance; poverty; economic policy jel classification: g21 abstrak: kemiskinan adalah masalah terbaru untuk banyak negara di abad ini. banyak negara menangani kemiskinan melalui kebijakan ekonomi yang dipengaruhi oleh keyakinan agama utama mereka sendiri. di indonesia, lebih dari 87 persen kepercayaan islam, tetapi stakeholder menjalankan sistem ekonomi dalam ekonomi konvensional. walaupun prinsip ekonomi utama yang digunakan indonesia adalah konvensional, namun dalam sistem pembiayaan bagi masyarakat, indonesia menggunakan 2 metode yaitu sistem pembiayaan konvensional dan syariah. tujuan dari studi ini adalah untuk mengeksplorasi produk dan pendekatan dengan cara syariah di keuangan mikro yang strategi miskin pro. ini akan menjelaskan pokok, produk dan juga efektifitas kinerja untuk bmt membantu orang-orang miskin di daerah pedesaan. saat ini, bmt berkembang di indonesia selama lebih dari 3.300 satuan dan memberikan pinjaman kepada lebih dari 1,5 juta pengusaha kecil dan mikro. dalam tulisan ini, juga mengeksplorasi salah satu bmt di kabupaten bantul, provinsi yogyakarta sebagai studi kasus. bmt ini disebut sebagai bmt matahari yang menerapkan prinsip syariah yang tepat dalam sistem perbankan. pada bagian terakhir dari jurnal ini akan menjelaskan kelemahan dan memperkuat bmt antara keuangan mikro lainnya. kata kunci: bmt (baitul maal wa tamwir); keuangan mikro syariah; kemiskinan; kebijakan ekonomi klasifikasi jel: g21 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 1, april 2013: 1-8 2 introduction religion belief is a human characteristic which is neglected with development practice and theory. religious principles and social teaching could positively contribute to poverty alleviation. more than 87% indonesia population beliefs in islam and it make the performance for all sector influenced by it. in the economic sector, for the purposing of the poverty alleviation, is the biggest challenge for the country. in indonesia itself, approximately 11,66% lived under the poverty line in 2012. moreover, the number of poor people were appear because of the inequality problem. with this fact, the government of indonesia need to put poverty alleviation policies as the important agenda in every year. one of the economic instrument to reduce the poverty that discuss in this paper is banking system. in indonesia, the implementation of banking system were divide into two classification, which are conventional and ‘sharia’ banking. conventional banking is the banking system based on the economic system that applied until recently and it based on the international regulation. otherwise, the sharia banking system rely on the mix between conventional and islam principles. in the islam tenets, poverty alleviation is one of the most important principle, and the god command for all the moslem to eradicate poverty and help poor through charities. mainly forms as zakat, infaq, shadaqah (abbreviated as zis) and waqf. the activities already appear since the era of prophet muhammad. at the moment, prophet muhammad also established baitul maal, it is the house of treasure and employed to address the problem of poverty in the societies. it include the basic safety nets for the needs, socio-economic empowerment to tight the disparity among citizens and also natural resource management for the human being welfare. islam and pro poor strategies. muslim not only teach to concern with religious or spiritual practice, but also teach how to have social etiquette and social relationship. islam also teach to take care each others and seeks social justice for the poor and disempowered citizens. in the al qur’an (the holy bible of islam) stated as a central tenet of muslim faith: righteousness is not to turn your faces towards the east and the west; the righteousness is her who believes in allah, the last day, the angels, the book and the prophets; who gives of this money, in spite of loving it, to the near of kin, the orphans, the needy, the wayfarers and the beggars, and for the freeing of slaves; who performs the prayers and pays the alms-tax. such are those who keep their pledges once they have made them, and endure patiently privation, adversity and times of fighting. (qur’an 2: 177). shepherd (2009) stated that islamic social teaching is most relevant to development for the equality. it proof that equality is clearly evident in its approach to the allocation of scarce resources. after the prophet muhammad passed away, he stated clearly that muslim are equal and deserve respect, means at that moment, in social relations indicate of how powerful the sense of equality was. moreover, the inequality is the initial problem of the poverty in this world; non equal access and opportunities in society. based on this discussion, narrowing the description that islam is really concern of poverty alleviation. as the former discussion about distribute the charities, zis, to the poor, is one of the pro poor instruments in islam. zakat in arabic means as to grow or to increase, but when referred to people, it means to improve or to become better (qardhawi, 2009). in sharia, it means to determined the share of wealth prescribed by god to be distributed among deserving categories. zakat is a kind of charity that must be given to someone who could earn money. many islamic scholars stated that zakat will clean of the inner soul and increase the wealth for the poor to grow and also for the person who give it. although it is compulsory charity to fight the poverty, but the awareness for muslim paying zakat is very low. the amount of zakat collected per year is lower than the potency itself. furthermore, the additional problem is, most of the muslim paid their zakat majority in the ramadan month, while the poor people need help throughout the year, it makes the zakat as the microfinance funds. nowadays, pro poor strategies using sharia ... (diah setyawati dewanti) 3 lots of sharia institution have collaboration with the public and private companies to deduct zakat from the employees’ salary directly before being paid in every month (chalikuzhi, 2009). the other charities is shadaqa implies giving away goods and funds in expression of the faithfulness and in realization of the belief in resurrection of afterlife to god (qardawi, 2009). obaidullah (2008) explain clearly that shadaqa may include various forms of charity, such as donations (tabarruat), gifts (hiba), charitable spending (infaq) and may indicate acts of kindness and charity. since it is a voluntary charity, the total amount of shadaqa collected is very low. the other charity is waqf, means to stop, to contain or to preserve. it is holding certain physical assets and preserving it to the long term benefit for the society. ahmed (2007) explained the objective of waqf are including the provision of religious services, socio-economic relief to the needy and the poor segment, education, environmental, scientific and other purposes. the forms of waqf assets mostly are land or building that used for the religious or society purposes. pro poor strategies based on islam tenets already describe as above. to explore the sharia microfinance’s products and approaches as pro poor strategies is the aim of this paper. these paper only focusing the sharia microfinance on baitul maal wa tamwir or abbreviated bmt. furthermore, the last section will deliberate the example case of bmt in one of the rural areas in yogyakarta province, indonesia. research methods this paper is using a secondary data. the coverage area is indonesia and make some focusing of example case in bantul district, yogyakarta province for the bmt case study. since the coverage area is nationally, this paper have the source data from badan pusat statistik, the indonesia statistical bureau and bank indonesia, the central bank in indonesia. otherwise, to explore the example case of bmt, the source data is handle by interview and observation to the one of the bmt in bantul district. moreover, to collect the development of the sharia microfinance products, this paper adopt from some publication belongs to the islamic economics and finance articles. result and discussion microfinance and islamic microfinance microfinance is the important component for poverty alleviation strategy because they offers basic financial services for poor people. one of the consultative group, cgap or consultative group to assist the poor describe the microfinance as the supply for loans, savings and other basic financial services for the poor. cgap report that the target group of microfinance is poor people who live at the border of the poverty line or those who could reach more easily decent quality of life and who have entrepreneurial ideas but lack access to formal finance. as the financial institutional, microfinance has to pursue dual objectives, which are acquire financial sustainability and serving the poor for the social objective. zeller et al. (1997) drawn that microfinance have three ways in poverty alleviation for microfinance, which are improve income generation through providing production credit and saving for asset accumulation; decreasing insurance cost through holding more efficient asset and liability, and smoothing consumption by providing consumption credit. in practice, microfinance contribute on micro-credit, microsaving, micro-entrepreneurs and constraint the practice of informal money lenders. nowadays, the microfinance serve the distribution of islamic charities, the zis (zakat, infaq, and shadaqa), and most of the microfinance who done this are islamic microfinance. since indonesia have been mandated to develop islamic banking by the constitution act no.10 year 1998 and act no 23 year 1999, the number of islamic microfinance was increased. islamic. the categorization of small and micro financial institution in indonesia (see table 1) is divide into formal and informal financial institution. the bmt is the one of the informal financial institution cover almost unlimited forms of saving-lending initiatives in society. the principles of islamic finance are laid down in the islamic law which based on the concept of brotherhood and solidarity. islam jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 1, april 2013: 1-8 4 affirms in ethical, moral, social and religious factors to promote equality and fairness for the good of all society. bmt products for pro poor strategies structurally, bmt embody of baitul maal and baitul tamwil. the baitul tamwil is deliberate to carried out the financial intermediations through mobilizing deposits from members and financing the commercial ventures. it designed like cooperative system. as mentioned above, the baitul maal is for collecting the zis and distribute the funds to the poor people. basically, the islamic microfinances is not having the interest rate for the financing arrangement, but they share the profit and loss based on contract and mutual partnership. these principle always deliberate the difference between conventional microfinance and islamic microfinance. in indonesia, bmt was developed in 1980 by muslim activists and nowadays, the bmt already developed after the first sharia bank in the country, bank muamalat indonesia, establish in mid of 1990s. generally, bmt institutions are led by leading islamic organizations such as pusat inkubasi bisnis usaha kecil (pinbuk) or centre for micro enterprise incubation and dompet dhuafa foundation, sharia banks, islamic boarding schools (pesantren) and muslims patrons who have strong socio-economics and religious influences in the community. in september 2010, pinbuk supervise 3,068 bmts and financing total 1,67 billion idr. the total number of bmts in this year is more than 3,300 bmts. they attracted to indonesia civils because bmts are generally unregistered under the normal practice rules of bank indonesia-the central bank and they developed significantly in quantity and spread in wide areas, especially in rural and played significant role in bridging the access of financial services to the poor and sme. sharia-compliant instrument of bmt are: (1) prohibition on usury and interest (riba)-no contractual guarantee(s) on investment and no taking profit from time value of money; (2) prohibition on realising a gain from speculation (mayseer); (3) elimination of uncertainties or ambiguities of contractual agreement (gharar) in commercial transactions; (4) all activities must be for permitted purposes (halal); (5) committing to knowledgeable consent on the contract; (6) comply with islamic ethics, for example equality and avoid robbery. the bmt mobilize the funds broadly divided into three parts. first part is the charity that includes zis and waqaf, hiba and tabarru. zis and waqaf already explained above and hiba and tabarru are gift and voluntary contribution from people who want to share the wealth to the poor as the more gift. second, wadiah, qard al-hasan and mudharabah for the deposits product. third, equity that may take the form of classical musharakah or the modern stocks. instrument of financing could be broadly divided into (1) murabahah; (2) musyarakah; (3) mudharabah; (4) ijara; (5) istisna; (6) salam. murabahah (arabic ة more accurately ,مرابح transliterated as murābahah) involves a finance table 1. categorization of small and micro financial institution in indonesia formal informal bank non-bank commercial bank (bank umum) co-operative ksm (kelompok swadaya masyarakat – self-help group) rural bank (bank perkreditan rakyat) ldkp (lembaga dana kredit pedesaan –village-based institution for sme financing) lsm (lembaga swadaya masyarakat – non-governmental organization) bmt (baitul maal wa tamwir – islamic co-operative or ksm) source: ceds, 2013. pro poor strategies using sharia ... (diah setyawati dewanti) 5 party for purchasing tangible assets from a seller and selling them to a buyer at a predetermined profit margin. in the context of trade finance, the buyer will settle the marked-up purchase price by way of immediate lump sum payment. in the context of consumer finance, the buyer will settle the marked-up purchase price by way of deferred installments. using a tawarruq structure and an asset for which there is a highly liquid market, the buyer will settle the marked-up purchase price by way of deferred installments but will also appoint the finance party as its agent to on-sell the assets on a spot basis and remit to the buyer the proceeds of any such sale. murabaha is the most popular and flexible shari'a-compliant structure and is used in microfinance initiatives. however, it is costly to implement and a growing number of shari'a scholars do not approve of it, especially in tawarruq structure, on the basis that it is merely disguised lending where the participants have no interest in actually acquiring the underlying commodities. this applies all the more in the context of providing microfinance to start-ups and small companies whose businesses do not involve the sale and purchase of commodities and which do not have sufficient surplus funds to be credibly investing in commodities. mudarabah is a special kind of partnership where one partner gives money to another for investing it in a commercial enterprise. the capital investment comes from the first partner, who is called the "rabb-ul-mal", while the management and work is the exclusive responsibility of the other party, who is called the "mudarib". the mudarabah (profit sharing) is a contract, with one party providing 100 percent of the capital and the other party providing its specialized knowledge to invest the capital and manage the investment project. profits generated are shared between the parties according to a preagreed ratio. if there is a loss, the first partner "rabb-ul-mal" will lose his capital, and the other party "mudarib" will lose the time and effort invested in the project ijara means lease, rent or wage. generally, the ijara concept refers to selling the benefit of use or service for a fixed price or wage. under this concept, the bank makes available to the customer the use of service of assets/equipment such as plant, office automation, motor vehicle for a fixed period and price. istisna (manufacturing finance) is a process where payments are made in stages to facilitate step wise progress in the manufacturing/processing/construction works. istisna enables any construction company get finance to construct slabs/sections of a building by availing finances in installments for each slab. istisna also helps manufacturers to avail finance for manufacturing/processing cost for any large order for goods supposed to supply in stages. istisna helps use of limited funds to develop higher value goods/assets in different stages/contracts. case study of bmt matahari, district of bantul, yogyakarta province bmt matahari located in rural area in yogyakarta province, it is in the bantul district. bantul district have 17 sub-districts. the total area of bantul district is 508,85 km2 with population approximately 1,2 million. most of the civils work in the agriculture (25 percent) and trade (21 percent) sectors. in the 2006, bantul was hit the earthquake and impact huge damage and caused more than 3.000 persons died. after this catastrophe, lots of civil become suddenly poor. otherwise, lots of grant help bantul to recover from this catastrophe, most of the grants are using for build up the physical infrastructure and housing. after this earthquake, the number of bmt in bantul district become increasing, from 25 bmts in 2008 become 42 bmts in 2010 spread in the 17 subdistricts in bantul. one of the bmt in imogiri sub-district called ‘bmt matahari’ already build since 1994 and it’s belong to the one of the biggest islam community organization called ‘muhammadiyah’. in the beginning of bmt matahari, it only have 8 members and nowadays it already have 400 members and transaction money 1 million idr in each month. bmt matahari have 9 persons as the human resources, 6 person as the committee and 3 person for the daily operational. the operational hour is start from 8.00 am to 4.00 pm. the informant of the in-depth interview for this case study is the manager of operational in bmt matahari, he is suprihatin. he explain, even the working hour is start from 8.00 am and close to 4.00 pm but most of the staffs start to jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 1, april 2013: 1-8 6 work in the early of morning and finish until 5.00 pm. most of the activities done after the working hour because most of the clients need the bmt matahari’s service outside the working hour. bmt matahari was build by the result of meeting in majelis ekonomi (committee of economics) in central committee muhammadiyah and majelis ta’lim (operational meeting committee). the structure of bmt matahari staff is different (see picture 2), board of trustees, chairman, secretary and treasurer have the same position. the manager explained that every month they have a routine meeting, but they don’t discuss about the bmt, they usually have spiritual deepen discussion concerning daily spiritual life. the discussion regarding the problem of bmt matahari is only occasionally. mr. suprihatin stated that the challenging to operate this bmt are making justification to the candidate client who wants to have loan in bmt matahari. he explain that one of the bmt matahari principle is to help poor people to have equal access for earn money from business. otherwise, the bmt need to strain the candidate of clients who want to have financial products. even though most of the microfinance ask the guarantee or assurance goods, e.g. land, car, etc., but most of the bmt matahari clients do not need to give the assurance. bmt matahari and the candidate of client will have agreements and bmt will survey the competence to pay in installments of the loan. based on the survey, the bmt will make the decision whether the candidate client proposal were approve or not. picture 1. maps of bantul district source: interview of operational management of bmt matahari, 2013. picture 2. organizational structure of bmt matahari pro poor strategies using sharia ... (diah setyawati dewanti) 7 products of bmt matahari bmt matahari have very easy criteria to be a member in this informal microfinance. everyone could be a member of bmt matahari, even though they are not muslim or even age is not restricted to be member in bmt matahari. the member obligations are put the capital stock in bmt matahari with amount of 180.000 idr or equal to approximately us$ 18, and each month the member have dues 10.000 idr each month or equal to approximately us$ 1. the products of bmt matahari consists of financings and investments. financing system compose as murabahah, musyarakah, mudharabah and investment system compose as wadiah, general mudharabah, termin of mudharabah, hajj investment. as illustration above, murabahah, musyarakah and mudharabah has the same meaning and operational implementation of products. murabahah is for the trade and mostly the client just propose the need of the goods and bmt will buy for the client. the payment of the client are based on the agreement between bmt and the client itself. musyarakah involves the profitloss sharing concept and non-interest inside of the implementation product for business loan. the profit-loss sharing amount is based on the agreement between client and bmt. it means, if the client have loss for the beginning time of the business, the bmt will also get the loss sharing for the business, and the percentage of the amount is based on the agreement between them. furthermore, mudharabah is almost the same with musyarakah, but the different is mudharabah is the client loan to bmt matahari to add more capital for their business. in this product, the client propose the goods and services to the bmt matahari as the loan for mudharabah and the bmt will buy the goods and services that client propose. in finance products, most of the clients came from trade sector-home industry and livestock sector. the informant describe that they could not support agriculture business because in this sector, farmers need lots of capital and operational cash to support them, and bmt matahari could not support that much of loan for farmers. most of the clients in the finance products is home industry in the food trade and traditional handicraft, e.g. keris (javanese small blade), javanese batik, and miniature of temple and aero plane. most of the fund for the finance products came from zis and also investment products. the bmt matahari have lots of collaboration to some of the national zakat agency in yogyakarta province, e.g. baitul maal muamalat, dompet dhuafa, etc. the other product is investment product, wadiah is the investment fund from member to support micro and sme business without asking for the profit sharing. this product is purely charity from the client to lend the money to be as loan to other without expecting profit sharing. general mudharabah and termin of mudharabah are almost the same to wadiah, but the different is that the client get the profit sharing from the third party through bmt matahari. general mudharabah had the minimum amount to invest, which is 500.000 idr (equal to us$ 50) and minimum one month investing. otherwise, the minimum amount termin of mudharabah is 1.000.000 idr (equal to us$ 100) with minimum one month time of investing. the last investment is hajj. this product is specialized to muslim member who want to have hajj. it is divided two products of hajj investment, which are investment to register the hajj and also investment to save the money for hajj allowance when the clients want to set forth hajj. one of the client, mr. didik age 38 years old were interviewed about his business and opinion regarding the bmt matahari. mr. didik has the car repair station after the earthquake destroy his house in 2006. his family suggest him to have a small business in car repair since he was graduate from vocational school of machine. but, at that moment, he need large of money to build the car repair station, and his father suggest him to go to the bmt matahari. after he learn, he decide to have financial product, it is musyarakah. based on his explained, he feel comfort to take loan in bmt matahari, he stated as follows: “i feel comfort to take loan in bmt matahari, they help.. assist me and they also teach me to always honest in reporting, and run the business. it’s not my first or two for having loan from bmt, but this is my fifth loan. start from small amount and now getting bigger... and bmt still trust and give me chance.” jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 1, april 2013: 1-8 8 he also add that he prefer the bmt matahari because mr.didik already know all the board of trustees. he never take other financial products in bank, because he think interest rate is riba and in islam, riba is forbidden. “the profit-loss sharing is more fair to us as a poor clients. bmt will always support us, even though we have trouble in business cycle. business cycle is not always having profit but we also get the loss. only bmt and certain bmt who play role in sharia principles run this tenet. i know, some of the bmt were not having profit-loss sharing, they only support the profit sharing without loss sharing.” (mr.didik, client of bmt matahari) nowadays, mr. didik prepare for the second branch of the car repair station which is have in the main road of imogiri sub-district. bmt as one of pro poor instruments for poverty alleviation. sulaiman (2008: 105-118) stated that one of instrument for overcoming the problem of poor groups in society is access of the poor to the financial services especially islamic financial services. conclusion the pro poor strategies which is implemented by the bmt is empowering of persons to be entrepreneur and make lots of jobs to others. as the case study, one principle that bmt matahari have is ‘empowering to the poor people to improve their wealth by their attempts’. bmt which implement the proper sharia principles, they have to help the clients to improve their business, furthermore, they will go in through the business implementation to fix the problem and improve the business performance. moreover, the principle of profit-loss sharing and non-interest is the basic principle of bmt as the pro poor. while the business having loss profit, the bmt will also help and support. for example, if the client could not pay the installment payment, bmt will have more time without giving penalty. but, if the client still could not pay the installment payment, bmt will assist the client to fix the problem in business. most of the basic principle from bmt which is pro poor is that bmt coverage area is in the rural area and only support for micro, sme and also help the poor people. references hasanah, alfiah., yusuf, a.a. (2013). determinants of the establishment of islamic micro finance institutions: the case of baitul maal wa tamwil (bmt) in indonesia. working paper: ceds, march, department of economics, padjajaran university, indonesia. juwaini, ahmad, et.al. (2010). bmt (baitulmaal wa tamwil) islamic micro financial services for the poor. iso/copolco workshop. may, indonesia. masyita, dian, ahmed, habib. (tt) why is growth of islamic microfinance lower than conventional? a comparative study of the preferences and perceptions of the clients of islamic and conventional microfinance institutions’ in indonesia. 8th international conference on islamic economics and finance. sulaiman, w. (2008). modern approach of zakat as an economic and social instrument for poverty alleviation and stability of ummah. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 9 no.1 april 2008: 105-118. yumna, aimatul, clarke, matthew. (tt) integrating zakat and islamic charities with microfinance initiative in the purpose of poverty alleviation in indonesia. 8th international conference on islamic economics and finance. http://www.bps.go.id/ http://www.bi.go.id/ jesp | jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan article type: research paper does spirituality give an impact on the well-being of an entrepreneur? wulan wiyat wuri*, prima andriani, and radikal yuda utama abstract: spirituality directs individuals to be more supportive in various work activities, especially in entrepreneurship context. this study examine the effect of subjective spirituality on entrepreneurs’ well-being by using data from the indonesian family life survey (ifls) from 2007 to 2014. we dissect the analysis into three groups that are self-employed, business owner or employer, and employee. the result stated that spirituality does matter only for those who run the business as self-employed in terms of generating income, although they tend to have lower levels of well-being rather than those who run businesses as business owners and those who work as employees within company. we found no significant evidence that spirituality affects the well-being of business owners, on the other hand this group has the highest level of well-being. the contributions of the study are explained further in this paper. keywords: entrepreneurship; spirituality; well-being. jel classification: d10; d19; i31; j17; n3 introduction spirituality will be reflected in human behavior which has potency to influence attitude in doing business or entrepreneurship. krishnakumar and neck (2002) stated that a work environment that facilitates employees to develop spirituality shows positive results for company performance. spirituality helps workers to be more creative, honest and trust the organization. pawar (2009) also mentioned the aspect of spirituality is the part of the needs of employees that must be met at work. since the late 1900s publishers such as the wall street journal, business week, fortune and others have reported an increasing trend of spirituality inside the company where employees looking for meaning and purpose in working as part of the spiritual dimension in the organization (pawar, 2009). in line with eckersley (2002) that conceptualized spirituality as a relationship that fosters a sense of meaning, purpose, and mission in life. previous studies have shown that personal spiritual beliefs affect individuals in decision making (sherman, randall, & kauanui, 2015). the spirituality of an entrepreneur will influence both the way of acting and making decisions. affiliation: universitas gadjah mada, yogyakarta. indonesia. *correspondence: wulan.ww@gmail.com this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.20.2.5026 citation: wuri, w. w., andriani, p., & utama, y. (2019). does spirituality give an impact on the well-being of an entrepreneur?. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 20(2), 221-231. article history received: 24 august 2019 accepted: 23 october 2019 mailto:wulan.ww@gmail.com http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/6944 wuri, andriani, & utama does spirituality give an impact on the well-being of an entrepreneur? jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 222 spirituality which influence how entrepreneurs think and act, in further will give an impact on business activity as a whole such as innovation, risk management, technology, capital growth, and institutional activities (ramadani, dana, ratten, & tahiri, 2015). entrepreneurship is also a phenomenon of the process in which needs, goals, and aspirations are integrated (shir, nikolaev, & wincent, 2018). according to (wiklund, nikolaev, shir, foo, & bradley, 2019) one of the various concepts that developed to be integrated with entrepreneurship is well-being because it provides an excellent opportunity to encompass the results of entrepreneurship research broadly. entrepreneurship encourages positive change in society as a breakthrough in commercial and social innovation that contributes to social well-being (wiklund et al., 2019). wellbeing is considered quite capable for representing the ideal conditions of the community, therefore entrepreneurship and well-being together become a research topic which is developed continually as a supporting aspect for practitioners in developing entrepreneurship. phipps (2012) also explained the relationship between spirituality and strategic leadership and shows how it influences a person in making decisions. leadership in the context of this research is represented as entrepreneurs who take the role of leadership in their businesses. well-being has some definitions according to source of well-being itself. some experts say that well-being is a positive condition of one's mentality (deci, olafsen, & ryan, 2017) and others argued that well-being is about tangible things which belong to individual. then, the term well-being eventually was quite often associated with the terms of economic, financial, material and subjective so then it can be named as economic well-being, financial well-being, material well-being and also subjective well-being. the first of the three terms namely economic, financial and material well-being have the same purpose and they are interchangeable. while subjective well-being leads to different meaning along with measurement methods used to define it. in general, there two points of view how to define well-being as we mention above. firstly, scholars interpret well-being associates with psychological such as happiness, satisfaction etc. secondly, researchers associate well-being with material such as income, expenditure, assets etc. definition of well-being in this context refers to economic wellbeing and more associate with materialistic measurement. it was classically measured through the calculation of income, expenditure or wealth, on the other hand economists begin to put their attention to subjective well-being as a fairly relevant measure (uy, sun, & foo, 2017; kahneman & krueger, 2014; peterson & bush, 2013). therefore, it is important to explore this issue in depth in terms of the linkages of spirituality and well-being of an entrepreneur. the purpose of this study is to examine the effects of entrepreneurship and spirituality to well-being using data from the indonesian family life survey (ifls) since 2007 until 2014. this study gives contribution both theoretically and practically. in theoretical aspect, it provides new insights related to entrepreneurship, spirituality and well-being by using ifls data that focuses on entrepreneurs in indonesia. while, in practical aspect, it provides a real picture how wuri, andriani, & utama does spirituality give an impact on the well-being of an entrepreneur? jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 223 spirituality becomes substantial within individuals who associated with entrepreneurship by looking a meaning beyond the work who drive well-being. the following section will explain the methodology employed in this study, then the third section we will discuss the result of the study, followed by the concluding remarks. research method this study employs a data survey of the indonesian family life survey (ifls). ifls is a household longitudinal survey in indonesia since 1993. it represents approximately 83% of the total population in indonesia that covers more than 30.000 individuals living in 13 of 27 provinces in 1993. the demographic distribution of data is represented by 25 provinces with multi-ethnicities and religion. we use the fourth and fifth wave of the survey that designed to stay representative of 1993 households and their descendants. the fourth wave of ifls was fielded between late november 2007 and the end of april 2008, then the fifth wave of ifls was fielded between late october 2014 and the end of april 2015. the personal consumption in the fifth wave was generated by using the 2014 categorical based household consumption. 1 unfortunately, only 2-3 % of the household sample provides information about their personal consumption and income. the monetary unit variables in 2014 were deflated into the year base of 2007 using the annual consumer price index (cpi). empirical strategy to analyze the impact of spirituality on the well-being, we use the basic empirical model of vial, hanoteau, & prévot (2011) that studied about entrepreneurship on the household wellbeing. we run two models to simplify the economic well-being indicators that are total income and personal consumption expenditure. to capture the different of spiritual effect, we interacted the variables of entrepreneurship and spirituality. 𝑤𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑏𝑒𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑖𝑡 = 𝛽0 + 𝛽1𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑒𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑢𝑟𝑠ℎ𝑖𝑝𝑖𝑡−1 + 𝛽2 𝑠𝑝𝑖𝑟𝑖𝑡𝑢𝑎𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽3 𝑠𝑝𝑖𝑟𝑖𝑡𝑢𝑎𝑙 ∗ 𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽3 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑜𝑙𝑠𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽4 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑡 + 𝑢 𝑖𝑡−1 (1) variable descriptions: 𝒘𝒆𝒍𝒍𝒃𝒆𝒊𝒏𝒈𝒊𝒕 : current economic well-being measured in two indicators: total income personal consumption expenditure 𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒓𝒆𝒑𝒓𝒆𝒏𝒆𝒖𝒓𝒔𝒉𝒊𝒑𝒊𝒕−𝟏 : one-period lag of entrepreneurship participation 1 see the technical notes about personal consumption expenditure from firmal witoelar (2009), https://www.rand.org/well-being/social-and-behavioralpolicy/data/fls/ifls/download.html https://www.rand.org/well-being/social-and-behavioral-policy/data/fls/ifls/download.html https://www.rand.org/well-being/social-and-behavioral-policy/data/fls/ifls/download.html wuri, andriani, & utama does spirituality give an impact on the well-being of an entrepreneur? jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 224 𝒔𝒑𝒊𝒓𝒊𝒕𝒖𝒂𝒍 ∗ 𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒓𝒆𝒑𝒓𝒆𝒏𝒆𝒖𝒓𝒊𝒕 : religion and the individual subjective spirituality 𝒄𝒐𝒏𝒕𝒓𝒐𝒍𝒔𝒊𝒕 : set of control variables like household characteristics indicators, demographic structure, and geographical location (urban/rural), region fixed effect, risk preference 𝒚𝒆𝒂𝒓𝒕 : year dummies 𝒖 𝒊𝒕−𝟏 : error term our main hypothesis is whether the spirituality of an entrepreneur has the positive impact on the household well-being in terms of income and expenditure as a good economic measurement of well-being. we defined entrepreneurs into two categories, that are selfemployed and business owner. as mentioned in the previous studies, business owners are those who owned the business with the employee are different with those who run the business without employees (block, kohn, miller, & ullrich, 2015; hamilton, 2000). we run full-sample of the individual aged 15 years old or above in the first regression to capture the different impact on the non-entrepreneur households, then we compare it with the restricted sample regression to check the consistency of the model. summary statistics table 1 presents summary statistics from ifls. in the 4th wave there are total of 20.163 households and 22.931 households from the last wave. in 2007 the average total income of the household is around idr 20 million and become idr 22 million in 2014. in 2007 the per capita expenditure is around idr 558.000 and the nominal rose in 2014 become idr 559.000 after deflating its value to the real value of 2007 based, but we found the declined maximum value of the monthly per capita expenditure. the education of the household head rose from 17 years on average in 2007 become 18 years in 2014 with the bigger number of household sample. table 1 statistic descriptive (a) variables 2007 obs mean std. dev min max income 20,163 20,665,680.7 44,691,089.1 0 2,004,999,936 per capita expenditure 19,720 557,984.7 527,283.8 27740.0 13,614,083 household size 20,163 6.076 3.094 1 39 age 20,163 45.853 13.952 0 100 head education 20,145 17.542 8.122 0 23 variables 2014 obs mean std. dev min max income 22,931 22,718,186.5 42,234,547.3 0 1,520,156,416 per capita expenditure 21,407 559,296.1 496,852.5 36583.7 11,488,368 household size 22,931 6.26 3.30 1 40 age 22,931 45.10 13.28 0 101 head education 22,818 18.58 7.34 0 23 source: authors’ calculation using ifls 4 and ifls 5 wuri, andriani, & utama does spirituality give an impact on the well-being of an entrepreneur? jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 225 table 2 statistic descriptive (b) variables 2007 2014 obs percentage total obs obs percentage total obs entrepreneurship (a) not self-employed (= 0) 13,031 64.63% 20,163 14,703 64.12% 22,931 self-employment (= 1) 7,132 35.37% 8,228 35.88% entrepreneurship (b) not business owner (= 0) 19,820 98.30% 20,163 22,466 97.97% 22,931 business owner (= 1) 343 1.70% 465 2.03 religion non-muslim (= 0) 2,305 11.43% 20,163 10.93% 22,931 muslim (=1) 17,858 88.57% 89.07% subjective spirituality not religious (= 1) 534 2.66% 20,108 650 2.84% 22,868 rather religious (= 2) 3,695 18.38% 4,678 20.46% somewhat religious (= 3) 14,629 72.75% 13,700 59.91% very religious (= 4) 1,250 6.22% 3,840 16.79% risk preference risk averse (= 0) 8,830 43.95% 20,093 9,145 40.08% 22,818 risk taker (= 1) 11,263 56.05% 13,673 59.92% head marital status not-married (= 0) 5,014 24.87% 20,163 5,144 22.43% 22,931 married (= 1) 15,149 75.13% 17,787 77.57% head sex female (= 0) 1,309 13.34% 9,814 1,474 13.29% 11,087 male (= 1) 8,505 86.66% 9,613 86.71% urban-rural rural (= 0) 9,905 49.12% 20,163 9,792 42.70% 22,931 urban (= 1) 10,258 50.88% 13,139 57.30% java region non-java island (= 0) 8,682 43.06% 20,163 10,640 46.40% 22,931 java (= 1) 11,481 56.94% 12,291 53.60% sumatera region non-sumatera island (= 0) 15,860 78.66% 20,163 17,558 76.57% 22,931 sumatera (= 1) 4,303 21.34% 5,373 23.43% source: authors’ calculation using ifls 4 and ifls 5 the table 2 presents the dummy and categorical variables. from the 20,163 of household sample in 2007 there are 35.37% of them work as self-employment and the number went up in 2014 become 35.88% from 22,931 of household sample. those who owned the business as employer only 1.7% of the total household sample in 2007 and rises become 2.03% in 2014. so we got the total observations who work as employee is 12,688 in 2007 and 14,238 in 2014 or 62% of the total sample between those two years. to capture the spiritual behavior on entrepreneurship, we also use the variable of risk preference (risk averse = 0, risk taker = 1) and the subjective spirituality by four categories: not religious (1), rather religious (2), somewhat religious (3), and very religious (4). for the risk preference, the sample shows that there are greater number of the household member who are risk taker rather than risk averse. to capture the geographical fixed effect, we consider the effect of whether the household live in urban or rural area. there 50.88% of household sample live in urban area in 2007 wuri, andriani, & utama does spirituality give an impact on the well-being of an entrepreneur? jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 226 and more in 2014 for 57.30%. furthermore, 53%-57% of the sample live java island and 21-24% live in sumatera. correlation matrix we present correlation matrix of main variables in table 5 (see appendix). unfortunately, we do not find the significant correlation between spirituality on both economic wellbeing indicators, nor with the dummy variables of entrepreneurship (self-employed and business owner). but for risk preference variable, we found the positive significant correlation with income and per capita expenditure as economic well-being indicators. it also has the negative significant correlation with spirituality. we also note that dummy of self-employed negatively correlated with the economic wellbeing and risk preference. it is different with the dummy of business owner that correlates positively with the economic well-being indicators and risk preference. result and discussion table 3 full sample regression the impact of entrepreneur’s spirituality on the household well-being variables income (1a) per capita expenditure (1b) coefficient se coefficient se subjective spirituality (1 = not religious, 2 = rather religious, 3 = somewhat religious, 4 = very religious) 0.0109 (0.0122) 0.00315 (0.00724) self-employed (self-employed = 1) -0.465*** (0.0473) -0.0833*** (0.0285) business owner (business owner = 1) 0.534** (0.222) 0.621*** (0.133) self-employed*subjective spirituality 0.240*** (0.0490) 0.0429 (0.0295) business owner*subjective spirituality -0.0332 (0.0749) -0.0529 (0.0449) risk taker (risk taker =1, risk averse = 0) 0.163*** (0.0153) 0.0831*** (0.00906) islam (islam = 1, non-islam = 0) -0.196*** (0.0342) -0.218*** (0.0208) household characters number of household member 0.0921*** (0.00273) -0.0512*** (0.00162) marital status (married = 1, unmarried = 0) 0.164*** (0.0265) -0.378*** (0.0155) year of education 0.0237*** (0.00105) 0.0132*** (0.000615) age 0.00290*** (0.000678) 0.00159*** (0.000399) gender (male = 1, female = 0) 0.288*** (0.0287) 0.0600*** (0.0167) geographical effect urban (urban = 1, rural = 0) 0.434*** (0.0159) 0.283*** (0.00944) java (java = 1, non-java = 0) -0.0283 (0.0196) -0.00959 (0.0117) sumatera (sumatera = 1, non-sumatera = 0) 0.106*** (0.0228) 0.0507*** (0.0136) year 0.0657*** (0.0150) 0.0189** (0.00887) constant 14.64*** (0.0639) 13.27*** (0.0379) observations 19,670 19,873 number of year 2 2 source: authors’ calculation using ifls 4 and ifls 5 wuri, andriani, & utama does spirituality give an impact on the well-being of an entrepreneur? jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 227 table 3 presents the full sample regression of the two economic well-being measurement models. in these regressions, we employed all the household samples who are selfemployed, business owners, and employees (not run the business). to capture the specific effect of an entrepreneur’s spirituality on his/her well-being, we interacted subjective spirituality with the dummy variables of self-employed and business owners. from the result we do not find the strong evidence to reject our null hypothesis that subjective spirituality statistically significant to affect the household total income nor per capita consumption expenditure, but if we capture it with the specific variable of selfemployed, it has a positive significant effect on the income, but we do not find significant evidence on the per capita expenditure. we also found no significant evidence to reject our h0 on business owner subjective spirituality. by this regression we only find strong evidence to reject h0 only for self-employed subjective spirituality by 0.240 coefficient. those who have stronger spirituality and run the self-employing business is likely to have a better income, but we need to be careful in interpreting this interaction variable since self-employed has a negatively significant effect on income and per capita expenditure. if we calculate the net-effect of self-employed subjective spirituality, we still get the negative value (0.240 – 0.465 = 0.225), so it means that even with the higher level of subjective spirituality, they still have a lower level of well-being in terms of total income by 22,5%. we also did not find that risk preference nor religion and spirituality have an impact to generate household income. on the other hand, there is a statistically significant impact of religion to per capita consumption expenditure. muslim population of the sample are likely to have 28,2% less of income and 22,5% less per capita consumption expenditure. another spirituality control variable such as risk preference and religion were found to be significant in influencing subjective well-being for both measures of subjective well-being. those who have a higher risk-preference tend to have higher well-being in both well-being measures. whereas if we compare the embrace of religion, those who embrace islam tend to have lower well-being than non-muslims. this can be caused by the number of samples that are mostly muslim (88, 57% in 2007 and 89.04% in 2014). table 4 presents the regression result with the restricted sample only those who run businesses both as self-employed and business owners who show the same results as fullsample regression where subjective spirituality is found to be insignificant in influencing both kinds of well-being measurement. whereas if subjective spirituality is interacted with self-employed variables, subjective spirituality shows a significant influence in influencing income but with a lower level of significance (90% level of significant). likewise, those who are risk-takers tend to be more prosperous in terms of generating income and in terms of per capita expenditure. while religious variable is only significant in regression per capita expenditure with the opposite sign. from the household characteristics control variables, we find that the number of the household member has a contribution to the household income and per capita wuri, andriani, & utama does spirituality give an impact on the well-being of an entrepreneur? jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 228 table 4 restricted sample regression variables income (2a) personal consumption expenditure (2b) coefficient se coefficient se subjective spirituality (1 = not religious, 2 = rather religious, 3 = somewhat religious, 4 = very religious) 0.00850 (0.0195) 0.00641 (0.0107) self-employed (self-employed = 1, business owner = 0) -0.928*** (0.145) -0.612*** (0.0844) self-employed*subjective spirituality 0.256* (0.155) 0.0942 (0.0895) risk taker (risk taker =1, risk averse = 0) 0.137*** (0.0236) 0.0713*** (0.0130) islam (islam = 1, non-islam = 0) -0.216 (0.150) -0.269*** (0.0871) household characters number of household member 0.108*** (0.00404) -0.0395*** (0.00224) marital status (married = 1, unmarried = 0) 0.117** (0.0466) -0.277*** (0.0250) year of education 0.0172*** (0.00147) 0.00876*** (0.000810) age -0.00122 (0.000977) 0.00169*** (0.000535) gender (male = 1, female = 0) 0.290*** (0.0465) 0.0244 (0.0248) geographical effect urban (urban = 1, rural = 0) 0.436*** (0.0245) 0.290*** (0.0135) java (java = 1, non-java = 0) -0.0166 (0.0299) 0.00687 (0.0166) sumatera (sumatera = 1, non-sumatera = 0) 0.121*** (0.0336) 0.0847*** (0.0187) year 0.109*** (0.0234) 0.0390*** (0.0129) constant 15.34*** (0.167) 13.71*** (0.0954) observations 9,167 9,401 number of year 2 2 source: authors’ calculation using ifls 4 and ifls 5 expenditure. it is statistically significant at the 99% level of significance to say that household size has an effect on household well-being. when the household has one more member, it would likely generate more income for about 9-10 percentage points. at the same time, the one additional household also generates smaller per capita consumption expenditure by 4-5 percentage points, hold the other factors constant. marital status is significant in both regressions with the positive sign on income and the negative sign on per capita expenditure. it is statistically significant that married individuals tend to have less per capita consumption expenditure by 28% -38% and higher income by 12-16%, holding others remain. education also has a positive impact on both measurements of well-being. one year more education will lead to 2.4% higher income and 1.3% higher amount of per capita consumption expenditure. the magnitude of impact is less for those who run a business both as self-employed and as a business owner. the capture of geographical fixed effect we also found that households in urban area have the better well-being in terms of income and per capita consumption. those who live in sumatera tend to have higher level of well-being in both measurements. based on the estimation, we find that self-employed individuals tend to have less capacity to generate income rather than those who run the business as business owners and those who work in employment. whereas those who run businesses as business owners are the most prosperous group. this proves that business owners have more ability because they wuri, andriani, & utama does spirituality give an impact on the well-being of an entrepreneur? jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 229 are already in a more developed stage of business because they already have employees even though they have fewer numbers (1.7-2% of the total sample). the groups that have the lowest welfare level are those who run small-scale businesses by relying on their own workforce. most of the self-employment jobs in indonesia are dominated by smallmedium enterprises (smes) rather than big established companies. kwon & sohn (2017) construct the model to measure the job satisfaction in selfemployment (using ifls). ifls ques: “response to the following question on a scale of 1 to 4: how satisfied are you with your current job?” as dependent variable. they found a statistically significant indicator for job dissatisfaction of self-employed rather than work as employee. it strengthen our argument that starting a small business as self-employed still a second career choice in indonesia. there still low incentive to start the business in indonesia. on the other side, business is also a promising sector if the business can grow so that their ability to generate income is higher than those who work as employees in the company. this is why spirituality only matters in the group that runs the business as self-employed in relation to the amount of risk they face in running the business. at least those who have a higher level of spirituality will be more courageous in making risky business decisions but have the potential to develop more. conclusion the main goal of this paper is to investigate the effect of spirituality on the economic wellbeing. we find that there is a significant effect of spirituality toward well-being of selfemployed, but it is still lower compared to other groups of business owners and employees. however, spirituality does not have significant effect toward business owners. thus, we conclude it is due to the higher risk they face in running a business, subjective spirituality matter for those who start the business especially for being self-employed. there are several limitations in this study and might be an opportunity for future research improvement. first, research used a theoretical umbrella that is self-determination theory to explain the framework, while in the framework only intrinsic factors are included as moderating variables, so it is better in the next studies to include extrinsic factors such as economic development, ethnicity, social conditions and so on. second, the study used secondary data is ifls in 2007 2014, so in terms of the novelty of the data less representative of the current condition because the available data has not been updated. third, in order to capture more precise analysis, it is better to expand the analysis to subjective well-being with a more objective measure of spirituality. acknowledgment we would like to thank the rocky adiguna, ph.d. and think indonesia for his research assistance and supportive encouragement. wuri, andriani, & utama does spirituality give an impact on the well-being of an entrepreneur? jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 230 appendix table 5 correlation matrix variables (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) (15) (1) total income 1.000 (2) pce 0.211 1.000 (0.000) (3) spirituality 0.008 -0.010 1.000 (0.309) (0.236) (4) risk taker 0.052 0.073 -0.028 1.000 (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (5) muslim -0.018 -0.065 -0.119 0.012 1.000 (0.022) (0.000) (0.000) (0.134) (6) self employed -0.127 -0.201 0.008 -0.066 0.016 1.000 (0.000) (0.000) (0.297) (0.000) (0.040) (7) entrepreneur 0.127 0.201 -0.008 0.066 -0.016 -1.000 1.000 (0.000) (0.000) (0.297) (0.000) (0.040) (1.000) (8) household size 0.156 -0.133 0.035 -0.013 -0.017 -0.003 0.003 1.000 (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.092) (0.035) (0.696) (0.696) (9) marital status 0.020 -0.088 0.015 0.021 0.022 -0.027 0.027 -0.071 1.000 (0.013) (0.000) (0.060) (0.006) (0.005) (0.001) (0.001) (0.000) (10) education 0.078 0.117 -0.036 0.101 0.007 -0.092 0.092 -0.058 0.118 1.000 (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.362) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (11) head age 0.013 -0.046 0.119 -0.061 -0.034 0.047 -0.047 0.269 -0.178 -0.256 1.000 (0.099) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (12) gender 0.029 -0.083 -0.053 0.061 0.011 -0.035 0.035 0.004 0.700 0.154 -0.160 1.000 (0.004) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.288) (0.001) (0.001) (0.671) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (13) java -0.008 0.024 0.021 0.009 0.259 -0.038 0.038 -0.073 -0.012 0.050 0.093 -0.044 1.000 (0.306) (0.003) (0.009) (0.267) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.138) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (14) sumatera 0.009 0.013 -0.153 0.008 -0.055 0.022 -0.022 0.063 0.003 0.026 -0.070 0.029 -0.587 1.000 (0.247) (0.095) (0.000) (0.301) (0.000) (0.005) (0.005) (0.000) (0.731) (0.001) (0.000) (0.004) (0.000) (15) urban 0.106 0.199 -0.035 0.074 0.040 -0.101 0.101 0.038 -0.043 0.173 -0.012 -0.047 0.163 -0.114 1.000 (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.112) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) wuri, andriani, & utama does spirituality give an impact on the well-being of an entrepreneur? 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(2019). entrepreneurship and wellbeing : past , present , and future. journal of business venturing, 34(4), 579–588. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusvent.2019.01.002 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11187-014-9589-x https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-orgpsych-032516-113108 https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-orgpsych-032516-113108 https://doi.org/10.1086/262131 https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/089533006776526030 https://doi.org/10.1108/02683940210423060 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11187-016-9820-z https://doi.org/10.1007/s10551-009-0047-7 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-3987-5 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-3987-5 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10551-011-0988-5 https://doi.org/10.1504/ijbg.2015.071906 https://doi.org/10.1080/14766086.2015.1043575 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusvent.2018.05.002 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusvent.2016.12.001 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusvent.2019.01.002 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 22 nomor 1, april 2021 article type: research paper the impact of baitul maal wa tamwil on household welfare: empirical evidence from indonesia riska dwi astuti1* and salman samir2 abstract: despite the growing studies of baitul maal wa tamwil (bmt) in indonesia, few have empirically analyzed how bmt increases household welfare, primarily through credit for productive activities. this study aimed to analyze the impact of bmt availability in the community on household welfare. considering that credit is targeted for productive activities, the researchers limited the respondents to farmer households and households with non-farming business activities, amounting to 4642 and 2250, respectively. utilizing longitudinal data from the indonesian family life survey (ifls), the analysis was conducted employing the difference-in-difference (did) method. the results showed that bmt's existence in the community improved farmer households' mean welfare by 1.65%. after controlling for household and community characteristics, consistent results were obtained with a small decrease in the coefficient of 1.58%. meanwhile, households with non-farming business activities were not affected by the existence of bmt in their community. nevertheless, a positive coefficient of diff-in-diff indicated that bmt and welfare had a positive relationship even though it was not strong enough to be a contributor to the outcome. keywords: bmt; welfare; farmer; households jel classification: g23, g51, o12, i31 introduction conventional microfinance products have been sustainably growing in muslim majority countries, notably the grameen bank experiences in bangladesh (abdul rahman & dean, 2013). although approximately 44 percent of conventional microfinance customers reside in muslim countries, it does not fulfill the needs of muslims optimally (karim, tarazi, & reille, 2008) as they assume the option of conventional financial products is incompatible with the principles outlined in sharia (komi & croson, 2005). furthermore, karim et al. (2008) argued that although there is a market for poor clients who only want to be engaged in islamic transactions, clients who engage in conventional practices will prefer islamic once it is available. abdul rahman and dean (2013) asserted that microfinance practitioners in muslim-majority countries such as afghanistan, indonesia, syria, and yemen stated that some conventional micro-borrowers tended to switch over to islamic products once they became available. affiliation: 1 department of economics, faculty of business and economics, universitas islam indonesia, special region of yogyakarta, indonesia 2 department of economics, faculty of economics and business, universitas hasanuddin, south sulawesi, indonesia *correspondence: riska.dwi.astuti@uii.ac.id this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v22i1.7836 citation: astuti, r.d., & samir, s. (2021). the impact of baitul maal wa tamwil on household welfare: empirical evidence from indonesia. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 22(1), 144-153. article history received: 26 dec 2019 revised: 21 aug 2020 27 jan 2021 accepted: 01 apr 2021 https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=kfgoci8aaaaj&hl=en https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=fuhgtc8aaaaj&hl=en https://economics.uii.ac.id/ https://economics.uii.ac.id/ https://economics.uii.ac.id/ https://economics.uii.ac.id/ https://economics.uii.ac.id/ http://economics.feb.unhas.ac.id/ http://economics.feb.unhas.ac.id/ http://economics.feb.unhas.ac.id/ http://economics.feb.unhas.ac.id/ mailto:riska.dwi.astuti@uii.ac.id http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/7836 https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v22i1.7836&domain=pdf astuti & samir the impact of baitul maal wa tamwil on household welfare: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 145 dusuki (2008) affirmed that islamic microfinance should take the initiative to meet the increasing needs of muslim clients to alleviate poverty and help the poor people in their distress. islamic finance has boomed in recent years, but what has hit the headlines is that big money has moved around, following islamic law principles (seibel, 2008). islamic microfinance is a sub-system of the islamic financial system, and there is a bigger demand for sharia-based financial products and services with the speedy development of the islamic finance industry. the role of microfinance in fulfilling development and social necessities is indispensable (hassan & saleem, 2017). according to ahmad and ahmad (2009), microfinance is constituted by a range of financial services for potential customers who are considered non-bankable, mainly because they lack guarantees to protect a financial institution against a loss risk. the appearance of inclusive microfinance and the delivery of small loans to the poor who usually fall outside the mainstream banking institution has focused on growing attention from various parties, including governments, bankers, practitioners, academics, and researchers (dusuki, 2006). islamic microfinance provides financial benefits for the community, especially the unbankable group, and rejects usury because it is oriented to islamic sharia principles. the prohibition of interest (riba) in islam is a way to avoid exploitation and uphold justice (hadisumarto & abdul, 2010). according to a study conducted by siddiqi (1981), the main reason why islam erases interest is that, in essence, interest is a form of oppression. furthermore, mannan (1986) revealed that interest deprives humanity's foundations, mutual help, and sympathy. according to ramzan akhtar (1997), the reason for the prohibition of usury is since interest guarantees a permanent return to the lender, while the borrower is left to bear all the business risk. in this case, islam wants to promote justice and equality. justice requires that investors take the risk with borrowers if they want to make a profit. thus, it is obligatory for muslims to eliminate the usury element from all kinds of transactions. indonesia is one of the countries with most of the population is moslem, which develops microfinance institutions with sharia principle in the provision of capital for microenterprises. one of the rapidly growing microfinance institutions is baitul maal wa tamwil (bmt). bmt is a financial institution with the sharia concept that combines the concept of maal and tamwil in one agency activity. the maal concept emerges and becomes part of the muslim community's life to collect and channel funds for zakat, infak and shadaqah (zis) productively. meanwhile, the tamwil concept is set up for productive business activities of middle and lower society (micro) for the benefit (mulyaningrum, 2009). according to soemitra (2009), bmt is an islamic financial institution formed to play a social role and seek profit in accordance with islamic law. generally, bmt institutions are led by leading islamic organizations such as pusat inkubasi bisnis usaha kecil (pinbuk) or centre for micro enterprise incubation and dompet dhuafa foundation, sharia banks, islamic boarding schools (pesantren) and muslims patrons who have strong socioeconomics and religious influences in the community (dewanti, 2013). bmt was established as an islamic financial intermediary, especially for small and micro enterprises (smes) (wardiwiyono, 2012). in addition, in the detailed profile of smes, hatmaka (2013) finds that, the benefit rate of mfi’s product such as credit utilization and the rate of saving utilization by smes is able to support the growth of smes. astuti & samir the impact of baitul maal wa tamwil on household welfare: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 146 rapid development has made bmt's role in indonesia be reckoned with (masyita & ahmed, 2013). several reasons support the rapid development of bmt in indonesia. first, as the majority of the indonesians are moslems and some islamic institutes/organizations such majelis ulama indonesia (indonesian ulama council), muhammadiyah, and nahdlatul ulama have affirmed that bank interest is riba (usury), which is unlawful (haram). bmt is the alternative choice of financial services provider (wardiwiyono, 2012). second, its extensive network covers all indonesian regions, making it a strategic intermediary for financial services. the method of "picking up balls" or coming to customers directly on-site is often used by bmt to expand the area's scope while facilitating customer’s financial access. easy administrative prerequisites and extensive network make bmt a promising financial aid choice (rahajeng, 2014). bmt in fact developed into one of important microfinance institutions (mfi) in indonesia, whether viewed from the financial performance and the number of people who could serve. third, as one of mfi, bmt seems more resilient to external shocks due to indonesia's economy, as evidenced in the era of economic crisis of 1997/1998. aziz (2004) asserted that the economic crisis that hit indonesia in 1997 did not significantly impact the bmt stability. moreover, it has been proven that bmt could survive when the global financial crisis hit the indonesian economy's stability in 2008. during the global financial crisis of 2008, there was an increase in the percentage of financing provided by bmt (wardiwiyono, 2012). in september 2010, pinbuk supervise 3,068 bmts and financing total 1,67 billion idr. the total number of bmts in this year is more than 3,300 bmts. they attracted to indonesia civils because bmts are generally unregistered under the normal practice rules of bank indonesia (the central bank) and they developed significantly in quantity and spread in wide areas, especially in rural and played significant role in bridging the access of financial services to the poor and sme (dewanti, 2013). the presence of bmt accommodates the muslim community's aspirations amid the anxiety towards economic activities with the usury principle and supports funding to develop small and medium enterprise empowerment activities. on the one hand, bmt runs the mission of the sharia economy and carries out the duty of the populist economy by improving the micro-economy. microenterprises (mes) were the biggest industrial component in indonesia, with 98.79% of the whole industry (1.11% small industry, 0.09% medium industry, and only 0.01% large industry) (statistics indonesia, 2014). however, with the industry's complexity and scope still limited, micro industries tend to experience obstacles in their development. one of the factors of the non-development of mes is the difficulty in the capital aspect. most mes do not recognize banks or financial institutions and have difficulty accessing them because of their complex procedures. this limitation of banking access causes the smes sector to become un-bankable. this condition causes the micro industries, which are generally owned by the poor, unable to grow optimally so that the poverty rate will increase, and the social gap will widen. based on the facts, bmt's presence is expected to provide solutions for existing problems, especially faced by small entrepreneurs, to play a maximum role in supporting indonesia's building and economic fundamentals. naqvi (1981) stated that the development of mes (for poverty alleviation) requires the provision of equitable capital. islamic law not only determines the choice of individuals or groups but also builds the integration of both. astuti & samir the impact of baitul maal wa tamwil on household welfare: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 147 islamic teachings set the spirit of brotherhood as the primary goal of the parties who transact (billah, 2003). it is an essential foundation for the development of mes because it is expected to provide mutual benefits. furthermore, bmt's existence is useful for freeing the people from the usury system and upholding justice, it is also expected to be a bridge for the development of mes and poverty alleviation. this research gives new contribution for the previous literatures on the effect of bmt presence in the community as microfinance with sharia principles on household welfare, especially the actor of mes and farming in indonesia. the remainder of the study was divided into the following sections. section 2 discusses the literature review, section 3 studies the methodology, and section 4 is the empirical finding. finally, in section 5, the researchers summarized and concluded the findings. research method this study used panel data from the indonesian family life survey (ifls) wave four (2007) and wave five (2014). ifls is longitudinal data conducted by rand corporation in collaboration with surveymeter, representing 83 percent of indonesia's population. this data contained detailed information about the individual, household, and community characteristics, including information on the existence and accessibility of bmt at the community level. this study focused on the effect of bmt presence in the community (within the village/kelurahan) on household welfare measured by households' net income from farming and non-farming business activities. the researchers chose those groups because bmt's main customer target is business actors, especially small/micro businesses in farming and non-farming activities. this study's outcome was adjusted to the rate of price increase (inflation) in the second period of study, in 2014. bmt is established in a specific area without random placement. bmt's existence considers several factors that support the bmt's continuity, such as potential market share and customers' availability. thus, the region's characteristics that could potentially be the reason for bmt's establishment should be controlled. population density is one of the most substantial reasons for bmt presence in the area. the high density of the population is a good signal to develop economic activity. on the other hand, the economy at the regional level may be a consideration for economic actors to establish a financial institution, such as bmt. however, since microfinance institutions are designed for the middle-lower class, the regional economy level is not very important to be controlled. in order to control other factors that potentially affected household welfare changes, the researchers involved variables of household and community characteristics, such as household size, urban, female household head, household asset ownership, highest education in the household, and population density in the community, where the household lived. this study's sample consisted of two groups: the farmer household group consisting of 4642 households and the household with non-farming business activities amounting to 2250 households. the following is a statistical description of the farmer household group. astuti & samir the impact of baitul maal wa tamwil on household welfare: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 148 table 1 descriptive statistics of farming household characteristics variables mean std. deviation hh with bmt hh without bmt hh with bmt hh without bmt farming activities 4.807.839 5.494.716 6.970.035 9.886.359 household size 3 3 1 1 female household head 0,065 0,060 0,247 0,237 asset 424.000.000 458.000.000 624.000.000 2.700.000.000 highest education 9 8 4 4 urban 0,271 0,177 0,446 0,382 population density 0,133 0,952 0,2995 6,879 sources: indonesian family life survey 2007 and 2014, data processed. in general, household characteristics in table 1 had no significant differences except the economic level and the population density. households who lived in communities with bmt had lower net income and asset ownership than non-bmt households. besides, bmt was also more likely established in communities with relatively low density. from the 4642-household sample, 247 households stated that there was at least one bmt in the community. meanwhile, for households with non-farming business activities, there were 2250 samples, and 173 of them stated that there were bmts in their community. the remaining 2077 stated that there were no bmt. the descriptive statistics of the group are presented in table 2. table 2 descriptive statistics of non-farming household characteristics variable mean std. deviation hh with bmt hh without bmt hh with bmt hh without bmt non-farming business 12.500.000 11.500.000 18.100.000 30.500.000 household size 3 3 1 1 female household head 0,104 0,098 0,306 0,297 asset 558.000.000 527.000.000 742.000.000 2.950.000.000 education 11 10 4 4 urban 0,682 0,527 0,467 0,499 population density 0,513 1,550 1,089 8,682 sources: indonesian family life survey 2007 and 2014, data processed. the pattern of household composition in this group was almost the same as the previous group. however, for non-farm businesses, households with bmt had higher welfare compared to non-bmt households. it could be seen from the mean of business net income and ownership of household assets. comparing the two groups in table 1 and table 2 shows that bmt was established chiefly in communities whose farming production was relatively small and its non-farming enterprises were relatively advanced. the mean asset ownership supported this statement. the method employed in this study was the difference-in-difference (did). this method assumes a time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity. basically, did compares treatment groups and control groups before and after the intervention period. panel data consists of two periods with setting t=0 before intervention and t=1 after intervention and 𝑌𝑡 𝑇 and 𝑌𝑡 𝐶 are the treatment and control groups’ outcomes. the did equation can be written as follows. astuti & samir the impact of baitul maal wa tamwil on household welfare: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 149 𝐷𝐷 = 𝐸( 𝑌1 𝑇 − 𝑌0 𝑇 |𝑇1 = 1) − 𝐸( 𝑌1 𝐶 − 𝑌0 𝐶 |𝑇1 = 0) (1) where 𝑇1 = 1 means treated household in t=1 and 𝑇1 = 0 denotes untreated household. in this study, intervention refers to the presence of bmt in the community. this research's primary focus was to know the changes in household welfare before and after bmt's availability in the community. households who lived in communities with bmt availability in their communities in 2014 were treatment groups, whereas households that did not have bmt in their communities either in 2007 or 2014 were control groups. involving some control variables, the did estimate could be calculated using a regression framework. the estimating equation is specified as follows: ln _profit𝑖𝑡 = 𝛼 + 𝛿𝐵𝑀𝑇𝑖𝑡 𝑡 + 𝛾𝐵𝑀𝑇𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽𝑐𝑜𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑡𝑠𝑖𝑡 + 𝑖𝑡 to ensure that the regression results were not overestimated, re-regression was done by adding other financial institutions' presence in the model. in this study, larger financial institutions' existence was measured with the existence of bank rakyat indonesia (bri) in the community. the reason behind choosing bri was that bri is a large banking financial institution with equal distribution in indonesia. result and discussion regression analyses were carried out to examine the changes in household’s welfare. the regressions' basic set included a year dummy, a bmt dummy, and interaction bmt*year, which gave the difference-in-difference. the second set of regression incorporated some control variables with the same method. as mentioned in the method sub-section, did could be calculated with equation (1) and equation (2), which produced the same result. firstly, the analysis was performed for the sample that contained farmer households. farmer households who lived in a community with at least one bmt became the treated group, while farmers without bmt in their community became the control group. table 3 displays the diff-in-diff results on farmer household: table 3 the difference and diff-in-diff of the outcome on farmer household outcome var. basic (without control variables) extended (adding control variables) ln_welfare s. err. t p>t ln_welfare s. err. t p>t before control 14.468 13.764 treated 13.466 12.794 diff (t-c) -1.002 0.373 0.007*** -0.97 0.373 0.009*** after control 14.315 13.608 treated 14.96 14.214 diff (t-c) 0.645 0.262 0.014** 0.607 0.259 0.019** diff-in-diff 1.646 0.456 0.000*** 1.577 0.454 0.001*** *inference: *** p<0.01; ** p<0.05; * p<0.1 source: data processed. astuti & samir the impact of baitul maal wa tamwil on household welfare: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 150 a positively significant coefficient in diff-in-diff provided the information that the availability of bmt raised farmer’s welfare. moreover, the significance level remained stable at 1% even some control variables were added to the model. the coefficients were not really different; adding control variables changed the coefficients to 1.577, which signified that bmt's availability improved 1.577% of the net income from farming activities. despite the relatively small percentage, if the researchers looked deeper into the data composition, bmt was located mainly in the low-productive area. profit generated by the farmer in the without-bmt area was 14% higher. the negative difference in net income before intervention and more prominent outcome conditions after intervention showed that bmt's availability increased the household’s welfare. table 3 gives information that untreated households could not generate higher profits than treated households in 2007. in the following research period, however, the treated household's profit could exceed the untreated household. as bmt's main target was the middle-lower class whose majority’s livelihood as a farmer, bmt's availability positively impacted the community. to ensure that the analysis results were not overestimated, this study tried to add a variable to the existence of other larger financial institutions in the community. the results proved that there were no significant changes compared to the previous results. the sign of coefficient and significance were almost the same. secondly, the analysis was conducted for the sample that contained households with nonfarming business activities. the household that lived in a community with at least one bmt became a treated group, while farmers without bmt in their community became control groups. table 4 shows the diff-in-diff results on this household: table 4 the difference and did of the outcome on households with non-farming business activities outcome var. basic (without control variables) extended (adding control variables) ln_profit s. err. p>t ln_profit s. err. p>t before control 14.794 10.429 treated 15.123 10.566 diff (t-c) 0.329 0.535 0.538 0.137 0.54 0.799 after control 14.474 9.926 treated 15.25 10.639 diff (t-c) 0.775 0.33 0.019** 0.713 0.329 0.030** diff-in-diff 0.446 0.628 0.478 0.576 0.631 0.361 *inference: *** p<0.01; ** p<0.05; * p<0.1 source: data processed. table 4 points out that there was no significant difference in welfare changes in the household with bmt in his community and household without bmt. although there was a significant difference between treated and control groups in the after-period, the baseline period was not significant. it produced diff-in-diff results to be insignificant. astuti & samir the impact of baitul maal wa tamwil on household welfare: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 151 nevertheless, the positive coefficient of diff-in-diff indicated that bmt and household welfare had a positive trend but were not strong enough to explain the increase in household welfare. based on the data composition, bmt's presence tended to be located in areas where people had business with higher profit. the mean net income of households from business profit in the bmt area was almost 10% higher than households in the non-bmt area. besides, asset ownership was also bigger, and the highest education level experienced by household members of bmt household was also better. therefore, it is not surprising if bmt's existence was not strong enough to explain the community's increasing welfare. there is a possibility the existence of other financial institutions potentially contributed to the increase in household welfare. thus, the researchers conducted a similar regression analysis, but the variables related to bmt were changed to bank rakyat indonesia (bri). as explained earlier, bri is considered to represent other financial institutions other than bmt because bri is the most widely distributed financial institution in indonesia. the same method showed results that were not much different from the previous analysis. variable of bri interaction with the year was not significant in affecting welfare. the argument behind this result is that a more modern business climate is likely to give a more significant contribution than just the existence of financial institutions in the household’s community. conclusion baitul maal wa tamwil (bmt) is one of the sharia microfinance institutions in indonesia with rapid growth. as a driving force for the community's economy, microfinance institutions, in this case, bmt, generally improved welfare through business credit, both farming and non-farming. using the data of indonesia family life survey (ifls) waves 4 and 5, this study analyzed the effect of bmt presence in the community on welfare obtained through farming and non-farm business. thus, this research’s sample was farmer households and households with non-farming business activities. employing the difference-in-difference (did) method, the results obtained that sbmt's existence in a community improved the farmer household’s welfare equal to 1.65%. analysis involving control variables, including household and community characteristics, gave a similar result with the previous result, which was 1.58%, with the same level of significance. on the other hand, the household with non-farming business activities was not affected by bmt's existence in their community. nevertheless, the positive coefficient of diff-in-diff indicates that bmt and welfare have been shown to have positive correlation but the existence of bmt does not strong enough to explain the increase in household welfare. there was no significant difference in welfare changes in the household with bmt in his community and household without bmt. even though there was a significant difference between treated group (farmer households who lived in a community with at least one bmt) and control group (farmers without bmt in their astuti & samir the impact of baitul maal wa tamwil on household welfare: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 152 community) in the after-period, yet the baseline period was not significant. this result give a significant contribution to the effect of bmt on household welfare study. references abdul rahman, r., & dean, f. 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(2012). internal control system for islamic micro-financing: an exploratory study of baitul maal wat tamwil in the city of yogyakarta indonesia. international journal of islamic and middle eastern finance and management 5(4), 340–352. https://doi.org/10.1108/17538391211282836 https://doi.org/10.1108/03068299710193930 https://doi.org/10.1355/sj23-1d http://bps.go.id/ https://doi.org/10.1108/17538391211282836 studi efektivitas pelayanan publik di kecamatan kejaksan kota cirebon jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015, hlm. 220-232 penyusunan indikator dan pemetaan kantong kemiskinan di yogyakarta: pendekatan sistem informasi geografi nano prawoto1, agus tri basuki2 1,2 fakultas ekonomi universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta jalan lingkar selatan, kasihan, bantul, daerah istimewa yogyakarta 55183, indonesia phone +62 274 387656. e-mail korespondensi: nanoprawoto@yahoo.com naskah diterima: januari 2015; disetujui: agustus 2015 abstract:this study aims is to identify pockets of poverty-based districts in kulon progo and formulate a common strategy for tackling poverty based on poverty levels in the district. the analytical method used to map poverty in kulon progo is size poverty indicators consists of economic, geographic, and social health and education. also used some tools i.e. shift share analysis, lq, and typology klassen to determine economic development in kulon progo. the data used are primary data and secondary data. the results showed that the causes of poverty in kulon progo consists of a variety of complex factors and interrelated, namely geography, human qualities, facilities and natural conditions are less supportive of the development of economic activity resulting limited access resources, distribution of goods, lack of education, a potential health threat levels, and low levels of income, ownership of assets and the level of social welfare. keywords: poverty indicators; shift share;lq; typologi klassen jel classification: i32, r15 abstrak: studi ini bertujuan mengidentifikasi kantong-kantong kemiskinan berbasis kecamatan di kabupaten kulon progo dan merumuskan strategi umum untuk menanggulangi kemiskinan berdasarkan pada tingkatan kemiskinan yang ada di kecamatan. metode analisis yang digunakan untuk memetakan kemiskinan di kabupaten kulon progo adalah ukuran indikator kemiskinan terdiri dari aspek ekonomi, geografi, kesehatan dan pendidikan dan sosial. selain itu digunakan beberapa alat analisis yaitu shift share, lq, dan tipologi klassen untuk mengetahui perkembangan ekonomi di kabupaten kulon progo. data yang digunakan adalah data primer dan data sekunder. hasil studi menunjukkan bahwa penyebab kemiskinan di kabupaten kulon progo terdiri atas berbagai faktor yang komplek dan saling berkaitan, yaitu kondisi geografis, kualitas manusia, sarana prasarana dan kondisi alam yang kurang mendukung berkembangnya kegiatan ekonomi sehingga mengakibatkan terbatasnya akses sumber daya, distribusi barang, rendahnya pendidikan, potensi ancaman tingkat kesehatan, serta rendahnya tingkat pendapatan, kepemilikan aset dan tingkat kesejahteraan masyarakat. kata kunci: indikator kemiskinan; shift share; lq; tipologi klassen klasifikasi jel: i32, r15 pendahuluan kemiskinan pada dasarnya merupakan indikator klasik yang hingga saat ini menjadi momok bagi negara dunia ketiga. millenium development goals (mdgs) yang dideklarasikan oleh pbb pada tahun 2000 mengharapkan seluruh negara yang menjadi anggota pbb dapat mengurangi jumlah penduduk miskin di masing-masing negara hingga mencapai 50 persen pada tahun 2015. jumlah penduduk miskin di indonesia pada maret 2010 sebesar 31,02 juta orang (13,33 mailto:prawoto@yahoo.com penyusunan indikator dan pemetaan ...(nano prawoto, agus tri basuki) 221 persen). dibandingkan dengan penduduk miskin pada maret 2009 yang berjumlah 32,53 juta (14,15 persen), berarti jumlah penduduk miskin berkurang 1,51 juta jiwa. jumlah penduduk miskin di daerah perkotaan turun lebih besar daripada daerah perdesaan. selama periode maret 2009-maret 2010, penduduk miskin di daerah perkotaan berkurang 0,81 juta orang, sementara di daerah perdesaan berkurang 0,69 juta orang. persentase penduduk miskin antara daerah perkotaan dan perdesaan tidak banyak berubah dari maret 2009 ke maret 2010. pada maret 2009, sebagian besar (63,38 persen) penduduk miskin berada di daerah perdesaan begitu juga pada maret 2010, yaitu sebesar 64,23 persen. persoalan kemiskinan menjadi isu yang tidak pernah habis hingga sekarang, apalagi yang berkaitan dengan kesuksesan kepemimpinan sebuah pemerintah daerah, topik kemiskinan seakan tidak lekang ditelan masa. kepemimpinan pemerintah daerah akan dinilai berhasil apabila dapat menurunkan angka kemiskinan dan mensejahterakan masyarakat banyak secara merata. kabupaten kulon progo sebagai salah satu kabupaten di provinsi daerah istimewa jogjakarta masih dihadapkan pada persoalan kemiskinan ini. kajian yang paling mendesak agar program penanggulangan kemiskinan dapat berjalan efektif, maka diperlukan pemetaan tentang kemiskinan di berbagai kecamatan. dengan diketahuinya kantong-kantong kemiskinan tersebut diharapkan dapat disusun kebijakan dan program penanggulangan kemiskinan yang pro poor. hampir semua pendekatan dalam mengkaji kemiskinan masih berporos pada paradigma modernisasi (the modernisation paradigm) yang kajiannya didasari oleh teori-teori pertumbuhan ekonomi, human capital, dan the production-centred model yang berporos pada pendekatan ekonomi neo-klasik ortodok (orthodox neoclassical economics) (elson, 1997; suharto, 2001; 2002a; 2002b). sejak ahli ekonomi “menemukan” pendapatan nasional (gnp) sebagai indikator dalam mengukur tingkat kemakmuran negara pada tahun 1950-an, hingga kini hampir semua ilmu sosial selalu merujuk pada pendekatan tersebut manakala berbicara masalah kemajuan suatu negara. pengukuran kemiskinan yang berpijak pada perspektif “kemiskinan pendapatan” (income poverty) – yang menggunakan pendapatan sebagai satu-satunya indikator “garis kemiskinan” – juga merupakan bukti dari masih kuatnya dominasi model ekonomi neo-klasik di atas. karena indikator gnp dan pendapatan memiliki kelemahan dalam memotret kondisi kemajuan dan kemiskinan suatu entitas sosial, sejak tahun 1970-an telah dikembangkan berbagai pendekatan alternatif. di antaranya adalah kombinasi garis kemiskinan dan distribusi pendapatan yang dikembangkan sen (1973); social accounting matrix (sam) oleh pyatt dan round (1977); physical quality of life index (pqli) yang dikembangkan morris (1977) (lihat suharto, 1998). pemetaan tentang profil kemiskinan di perdesaan sangat diperlukan oleh pengambil kebijakan terutama untuk penanganan masalah kemiskinan. keterangan mengenai jenis persoalan dan akar permasalahan yang dihadapi berbagai jenis segmen penduduk miskin dapat membantu perencana program dalam menentukan program-program yang tepat. dengan mengetahui pemetaan kemiskinan di perdesaan, pengambil kebijakan bisa lebih memfokuskan pada program pengentasan kemiskinan di perdesaan sehingga dapat lebih sesuai dengan kebutuhan penduduk miskin tersebut. metode penelitian jenis dan sumber data dilihat dari sumbernya, data dasar yang digunakan dalam studi ini ada dua jenis yaitu data sekunder dan data primer. lokasi pelaksanaan pekerjaan adalah di seluruh kecamatan yang ada di kabupaten kulon progo.waktu pelaksanaan kegiatan dilaksanakan selama 2 tahun. alat analisis pelaksanaan pekerjaan menggunakan penelitian deskriptif yaitu penelitian yang menjelaskan dan menyajikan suatu metode dalam meneliti status kelompok manusia, suatu obyek, suatu set kondisi, suatu sistem pemikiran ataupun suatu kelas peristiwa pada masa sekarang, menghimpun data dan menyajikannya. pende jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015: 220-232 222 katan pelaksanaan pekerjaan menggunakan metodologi penelitian dengan pendekatan kualitatif dan kuantitatif. pendekatan kualitatif dilaksanakan untuk merumuskan indikator rawan pangan yang relevan dengan wilayah yang dikaji. pendekatan kualitatif digunakan sebagai pembanding dan memperjelas data kuantitatif yang ada dengan memakai strategi studi kasus. strategi studi kasus dipilih karena kekhasan masalah, selain kemampuannya dalam menjelaskan fenomena sosial secara lebih mendalam (cresswel, 1994; babie 2004 dalam sitorus,1999). karakteristik rumah tangga miskin hasil pendataan bps pada tahun 2010 menunjukkan sebagian besar dari rumah tangga miskin mempunyai 4,9 anggota rumah tangga. jumlah rata rata anggota rumah tangga ini lebih besar dibanding jumlah rata rata anggota rumah tangga tidak miskin. ini menunjukkan bahwa rumah tangga miskin harus menanggung beban yang lebih besar dibanding rumah tangga tidak miskin. rumah tangga miskin di daerah perkotaan rata rata mempunyai 5,1 anggota rumah tangga, sedangkan rumah tangga miskin di daerah perdesaan rata rata mempunyai 4,8 anggota rumah tangga. berdasarkan angka ini dapat diketahui bahwa beban rumah tangga miskin di daerah perkotaan dalam memenuhi kebutuhan hidup ternyata lebih besar daripada rumah tangga miskin di daerah perdesaan. ciri lain yang melekat pada rumahtangga miskin adalah tingkat pendidikan kepala rumah tangga yang rendah. data yang disajikan bps memperlihatkan bahwa 72,01 persen dari rumah tangga miskin di perdesaan dipimpin oleh kepala rumahtangga yang tidak tamat sd, dan 24,32% dipimpin oleh kepala rumahtangga yang berpendidikan sd. kecenderungan yang sama juga dijumpai pada rumah tangga miskin di perkotaan. sekitar 57,02% rumahtangga miskin di perkotaan dipimpin oleh kepala rumahtangga yang tidak tamat sd, dan 31,38 persen dipimpin oleh kepala rumahtangga berpendidikan sd. ciri ini menunjukkan bahwa tingkat pendidikan kepala rumahtangga miskin di perkotaan lebih tinggi dibanding kepala rumahtangga di perdesaan. ciri rumah tangga miskin yang erat kaitannya dengan tingkat pendidikan dan sebaran lokasi rumahtangga adalah sumber penghasilan. menurut data bps, penghasilan utama dari 63,0 persen rumahtangga miskin bersumber dari kegiatan pertanian, 6,4 persen dari kegiatan industri, 27,7 persendari kegiatan jasa-jasa termasuk perdagangan, bangunan dan pengangkutan, dan selebihnya merupakan penerima pendapatan. pada tahun 1998 dan 1999 proporsi sumber penghasilan utama tidak mengalami pergeseran. dengan membedakan menurut daerah dapat dicatat bahwa sebagian besar atau sekitar 75,7 persenrumah tangga miskin di perdesaan mengandalkan pada sumber penghasilan di sektor pertanian. lebih dari 75 persenrumah tangga miskin di perkotaan memperoleh penghasilan utama dari kegiatan ekonomi di luar sektor pertanian dan hanya 24,0 persenrumah tangga miskin mengandalkan pada sektor pertanian. ini konsisten dengan corak rumah tangga perdesaan yang sebagian besar adalah rumah tangga petani. kegiatan ekonomi perkotaan yang lebih beragam memberikan sumber penghasilan yang beragam pula bagi rumah tangga miskin di perkotaan. pemetaan kemiskinan di kabupaten kulon progo sesuai dengan pendekatan pengukuran dan analisis penyebab kemiskinan di kabupaten kulon progo digambarkan pada gambar 1. berbagai faktor penyebab kemiskinan tersebut, kemudian dapat dilakukan penetapan indikator dan parameter pengukuran kemiskinan. penentuan indikator dan parameter ini juga mengacu pada pendekatan yang dilakukan oleh biro pusat statistik, khususnya untuk tahun 2010. adapun indikator yang dimaksud adalah seperti pada tabel 1 (dalam lampiran). hasil penentuan indikator dan penghitungan skor dapat kita buat peta wilayah kemiskinan di kabupaten kulon progo, dan dari hasil pemetaan kemiskinan dapat dijadikan dasar dalam penyusunan strategi dan kebijakan penanggulangan kemiskinan di kabupaten kulon progo. penyusunan indikator dan pemetaan ...(nano prawoto, agus tri basuki) 223 hasil dan pembahasan posisi perekonomian kabupaten kulon progo struktur ekonomi dan struktur sosial tiap kabupaten di diy berbeda satu sama lain yang didasarkan pada typology klassen. berdasarkan laju pertumbuhan pdrb dan kontribusi dalam pembentukan pdrb kabupaten terhadap pdrb provinsi dapat dikelompokkan menjadi beberapa kategori. dalam analisis typology klassen dibagi menjadi 4 kategori dapat dilihat pada tabel 2: (1) daerah majuberkembang cepat. daerah yang memiliki ciri kontribusi pdrb kab/ kota/reratakontribusi pdrb provinsi  1 dan rerata pertumbuhan pdrb (kab/kota)/rerata pdrb provinsi  1. (2) daerah berkembang cepat. daerah yang memiliki ciri kontribusi pdrb kab/kota/ rerata kontribusi pdrb provinsi  1 dan rerata pertumbuhan pdrb (kab/kota)/rerata pdrb provinsi  1. (3) daerah potensial. daerah yang memiliki cirri kontribusi pdrb kab/kota/reratakontribusi pdrb provinsi  1 dan rerata pertumbuhan pdrb (kab/kota)/rerata pdrb provinsi 1. (4) daerah relatif tertinggal. daerah yang memiliki ciri kontribusi pdrb kab/kota/ gambar 1. berbagai faktor penyebab kemiskinan gambar 2. kerangka kerja penelitian tabel 2. perkembangan ekonomi kabupaten/kota terhadap daerah istimewa yogyakartatahun 2007-2011 proporsi pertumbuhan kontribusi pdrb kabupaten/rerata kontribusi pdrb provinsi 1 kontribusi pdrb kabupaten/rerata kontribusi pdb provinsi 1 rerata pertumbuhan pdrb kabupate/rerata pdb provinsi 1 daerah maju berkembang cepat kota yogyakarta daerah berkembang cepat kabupaten bantul rerata pertumbuhan pdrb kabupaten/rerata pdb provinsi  1 daerah potensial kabupaten sleman daerah relatif tertinggal kabupaten gungung kidul kabupaten kulon progo sumber:diy dalam angka 2007-2011 (diolah) jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015: 220-232 224 rerata kontribusi pdrb provinsi  1 dan rerata pertumbuhan pdrb (kab/kota)/rerata pdrb provinsi  1. perkembangan pdrb kabupaten kulonprogo perkembangan pdrb perkembangan pdrb kabupaten kulon progo tahun 2007 sd 2011 dapat dilihat pada tabel 3. analisis location quotient (lq) location quotient (lq) merupakan alat analisis untuk mengetahui ada tidaknya spesialisasi suatu wilayah untuk sektor (industri) tertentu. lq = (eij/ej)/(ein/en) 1) di mana,eij adalah kesempatan kerja di sektor i di wilayah j; ej adalah kesempatan kerja di wilayah j; ein adalah kesempatan kerja di sektor i di negara n, eij adalah kesempatan kerja di negara n; interpretasi dari hasil perhitungan dengan formula tersebut adalah: jika nilai lq > 1, maka wilayah j untuk sektor i ada spesialisasi (tingkat spesialisasi wilayah > tingkat spesialisasi nasional); jika nilai lq = 1, maka wilayah j untuk sektor i ada spesialisasi (tingkat spesialisasi wilayah = tingkat spesialisasi nasional); jika nilai lq < 1, maka wilayah j untuk sektor i ada spesialisasi (tingkat spesialisasi wilayah < tingkat spesialisasi nasional); analisis lq menunjukkan bahwa seluruh kota/kabupaten baik yang berada dalam kawasan andalan maupun kawasan bukan andalan, memiliki lq yang lebihbesar dari satu pada beberapa subsektor lapangan usaha. artinya, semua kabupaten/kota memiliki subsektor unggulan dan penetapan kawasan andalan berdasarkan persyaratan sektor unggulan dapat dipandang tepat, lihat tabel 4. hasil perhitungan lq dapat disimpulkan kabupaten kulon progo memiliki keunggulan di sektor pertanian, pertambangan dan penggalian, serta industri pengolahan. analisis tipologi klasen dengan menggunakan penghitungan tipology klassen, terlihat sebaran masing-masing sektor ditunjukkan dalam tabel 5. berdasarkan penghitungan tipology klassen dibagi menjadi: sub sektor maju. subsektor yang memiliki ciri kontribusi subsektor kab/kota/reratakontribusi pdrb kab/kota  1 dan rerata pertumbuhan subsektor (kab/kota)/reratapdrb kab/kota  1 sub sektor berkembang. subsektor yang memiliki ciri kontribusi subsektor kab/kota/ rerata kontribusi pdrb kab/kota  1 dan rerata pertumbuhan subsektor (kab/kota)/rerata pdrb kab/kota  1. sub sektor potensial. subsektor yang memiliki ciri kontribusi subsektor kab/kota/rerata kontribusi pdrb kab/kota  1 dan rerata pertumbuhan subsektor (kab/kota)/rerata pdrb kab /kota  1. sub sektor terbelakang. subsektor yang memiliki ciri kontribusi subsektor kab/kota/rerata kontribusi pdrb kab/kota  1 dan rerata pertumbuhan subsektor (kab/ kota)/rerata pdrb kab/kota  1. hasil perhitungan pada tabel 5 terlihat bahwa sub-sektor maju terdiri dari sektor tabel 4. perkembangan lq kabupaten kulon progo tahun 2007 sd 2011 lapangan usaha nilai lq rerata lq 2008 2009 2010 2011 1. pertanian 1,49 1,49 1,49 1,62 1,52 2. pertambangan dan penggalian 1,45 1,54 1,06 1,15 1,30 3. industri pengolahan 1,14 1,13 1,13 1,04 1,11 4. listrik, gas dan air bersih 0,67 0,68 0,70 0,12 0,54 5. bangunan 0,52 0,53 0,54 0,56 0,54 6. perdagangan, restoran dan hotel 0,81 0,81 0,82 0,83 0,82 7. angkutan dan komunikasi 1,01 1,00 0,99 0,94 0,98 8. keuangan, persewaan dan jasa perusahaan 0,67 0,69 0,70 0,65 0,68 9. jasa-jasa 1,03 1,02 1,06 1,07 1,04 penyusunan indikator dan pemetaan ...(nano prawoto, agus tri basuki) 225 pertanian dan jasa-jasa. sedangkan sub sektor berkembangadalah sektor listrik, gas dan air bersih, bangunan, perdagangan, hotel dan restoran. sektor potensial adalah sektor pertambangan dan industri pengolahan. sedangkan sub sektor terbelakang adalah sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi, keuangan, persewaan dan jasa perusahaan. analisis shift-share analisis ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui kontribusi tiap-tiap subsektor terhadap pendapatan domestik regional bruto (pdrb). analisis shift-share dapat digunakan untuk mendeskripsikan trend agregat secara statistik, shift-share analisis mengklarifikasikan perubahan pdrb setiap saat dalam wilayah yang diperbandingkan dengan tiga kategori, komponen dalam membentuk shift-share di antaranya adalah pdrb di sektor tertentu (i) tingkat wilayah, laju pertumbuhan pdb tingkat nasional (rn), laju pertumbuhan pdb di sektor tertentu (i) di tingkat nasional (rin), dan laju pertumbuhan pdrb di sektor tertentu (i) tingkat wilayah (rij). komponen perubahan secara nasional mempresentasekan komponen pembagian nasional untuk perhitungan dimana laju pertumbuhan regional yang telah mengalami perubahan diikuti perubahan secara tepat dalam tingkat nasional untuk semua sub sektor dalam tingkat nasional untuk semua sub sektor dalam periode penilaian. jika pertumbuhan di tingkat regional berbeda dengan nasional (berupa positip atau negatif dalam pergeseran pdrb), secara total pergeseran terdiri dari pergeseran struktural juga pergeseran mengenai pembagian proporsional. dampak perubahan pdrb dimana dalam perhitungan di tingkat regional berubah sesuai dengan tipe dari pdrb dalam sub sektor tertentu (termasuk cepat atau lambatnya laju pertum-buhan nasional). pergeseran terdiri dari perbedaan dalam pergeseran juga pengetahuan tentang dampak regional dimana perhitungan pdrb regional berubah seiring dengan faktor lokasi di tiap regional, lihat tabel 6. tabel 6 hasil analisis memperlihatkan pada tabel 6. perkembangan shift share kabupaten kulon progo tahun 2009 2011 sumber: bps kabupaten kulon progo (data diolah) keterangan :nij adalah pengaruh pertumbuhan provinsi; mij adalah pengaruh bauran industri; cij adalah pengaruh keunggulan kompetitif; dij adalah analisis shift-share tabel 5. klasen typology kabupaten kulon progo, tahun 2007-2011 proporsi pertumbuhan sub sektor maju pertanian jasa-jasa sub sektor berkembang listrik, gas dan air bersih bangunan perdagangan, hotel dan restoran sub sektor potensial pertambangan industri pengolahan sub sektor terbelakang pengangkutan dan komunikasi keuangan, persewaan dan jasa perusahaan sumber: bps kabupaten kulon progo, 2008-2011 (diolah) jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015: 220-232 226 tahun 2011 terjadi pergeseran pembangunan di kabupaten kulon progo, artinya pergeseran pembangunan dapat dilihat dari laju pertumbuhan yang signifikan, sedangkan pengaruh keunggulan kompetitif mengalami penurunan terutama di sektor keuangan, persewaan dan jasa perusahaan (akibat krisis eropa dan amerika). hasil analisis shift-share pada tahun 2011 secara keseluruhan dengan melihat analisis shift-share pada pdrb mengalami perbaikan dibandingkan dengan tahun 2010, tetapi secara keseluruhan semua sektor terjadi penurunan keunggulan kompetitif dibandingkan tahun 2010 pada pdrb dalam wilayah kabupaten kulon progo. gambar 3. perubahan shift share kabupaten kulon progo 2009-2011 hasil penilaian dengan pendekatan skor menurut berbagai faktor penyebab kemiskinan, maka dapat diklasifikasikan masing-masing distrik menurut kedalaman tingkat kemiskinan. klasifikasi ini terbagi ke dalam tiga kelompok, yaitu distrik yang masuk klasifikasi bukan kantong kemiskinan, distrik klasifikasi kantong kemiskinan sedang, dan distrik dengan klasifikasi kantong kemiskinan berat. adapun secara rinci masing-masing distrik dapat dicermati pada tabel 10. walaupun seluruh kecamatan yang ada di kabupaten kulon progo terbebas dari kantong kemiskinan, namun ada 4 kecamatan yang skornya dibawah 80 yaitu kecamatan sentolo, pengasih, kokap, girimulyo dan sanigaluh, artinya di kecamatan ini masih terdapat jumlah penduduk miskin di atas 8,5 persen. tabel 10. kriteria kedalaman kemiskinan berdasarkan kecamatan no kecamatan skor total kriteria sebagai kantong kemiskinan 1 temon 88 bukan sebagai kantong kemiskinan 2 wates 93 bukan sebagai kantong kemiskinan 3 panjatan 87 bukan sebagai kantong kemiskinan 4 galur 84 bukan sebagai kantong kemiskinan 5 sentolo 79 bukan sebagai kantong kemiskinan 6 lendah 84 bukan sebagai kantong kemiskinan 7 pengasih 79 bukan sebagai kantong kemiskinan 8 kokap 78 bukan sebagai kantong kemiskinan 9 girimulyo 79 bukan sebagai kantong kemiskinan 10 nanggulang 84 bukan sebagai kantong kemiskinan 11 kalibawang 83 bukan sebagai kantong kemiskinan 12 samigaluh 79 bukan sebagai kantong kemiskinan kriteria: skor >70: bukan sebagai kantong miskin skor 51-70: sebagai kantong kemiskinan sedang skor < 50 : sebagai kantong kemiskinan berat strategi memperkecil jumlah penduduk miskin upaya pengarusutamaan penanggulangan kemiskinan indonesia telah dilakukan dan menempatkan penanggulangan kemiskinan sebagai prioritas utama kebijakan pembangunan nasional. sebagai wujud gerakan bersama dalam mengatasi kemiskinan dan mencapai tujuan pembangunan milenium (mdgs), pendekatan penanggulangan kemiskinan (strategy for poverty reduction) perlu disusun melalui proses partisipatif dengan melibatkan seluruh stakeholders pembangunan di wilayah distrik. strategi ini menggunakan pendekatan berbasis hak (right-based approach) sebagai pendekatan utama dengan menegaskan adanya pencapaian secara bertahap dan progresif (progressive realization) dalam penghormatan (respect), perlindungan (protect) dan pemenuhan (fulfill) hak dasar rakyat, memberikan perhatian terhadap perwujudan kesetaraan dan keadilan gender, serta percepatan pengembangan wilayah. selain penyusunan indikator dan pemetaan ...(nano prawoto, agus tri basuki) 227 itu, perlu ada komite penanggulangan kemiskinan daerah (kpkd) dan menyusun strategi penanggulangan kemiskinan daerah (spkd) sebagai dasar pengarusutamaan penanggulangan kemiskinan di daerah dan mendorong gerakan sosial dalam mengatasi kemiskinan. untuk perluasan kesempatan kerja dan berusaha dilakukan melalui: bantuan dana stimulan untuk modal usaha terutama melalui kemudahan dalam mengakses kredit mikro dan ukm, pelatihan keterampilan kerja untuk meningkatkan kualitas tenaga kerja, meningkatkan investasi dan revitalisasi industri termasuk industri padat tenaga kerja, pembangunan sarana dan prasarana berbasis masyarakat yang padat pekerja. untuk pemenuhan hak dasar penduduk miskin secara langsung diberikan pelayanan antara lain pendidikan gratis bagi penuntasan wajib belajar 9 tahun termasuk bagi murid dari keluarga miskin dan penunjangnya; dan jaminan pemeliharaan kesehatan gratis bagi penduduk miskin di puskesmas dan rumah sakit kelas iii. untuk mencapai ketiga langkah prioritas tersebut di atas, akan dikembangkan dalam budaya pembangunan di indonesia adalah pemberdayaan masyarakat dan pelibatan peran aktif masyarakat terutama masyarakat miskinnya mulai dari perencanaan program pembangunan baik penentuan kebijakan dan penganggaraannya, maupun pelaksanaan program serta monitoring dan evaluasinya. program dalam memperkecil keluarga miskin (1) menjaga stabilitas harga bahan kebutuhan pokok programini bertujuan menjamin daya beli masyarakat miskin/keluarga miskin untuk memenuhi kebutuhan pokok terutama beras dan kebutuhan pokok utama selain beras. program ini meliputi kegiatan prioritas sebagai berikut: (a) penyediaan cadangan beras dan barang kebutuhan pokok; (b) stabilisasi/kepastian harga komoditas barang-barang kebutuhan primer; (c) peningkatan keterlibatan sektor swasta dalam penyediaan barang kebutuhan primer; (d) peningkatan peran serta masyarakat dalam melakukan produksi untuk barang kebutuhan primer; (e) peningkatan akses modal bagi prosen untuk barang kebutuhan primer; (f) peningkatan kualitas distribusi barang kebutuhan primer (2) mendorong pertumbuhan yang berpihak pada rakyat miskin program ini bertujuan mendorong terciptanya dan terfasilitasinya kesempatan berusaha yang lebih luas dan berkualitas bagi masyarakat/ keluarga miskin. programini meliputi kegiatan prioritas sebagai berikut: (a) penyediaan dana bergulir untuk kegiatan produktif skala usaha mikro; (b) bimbingan teknis/pendampingan dan pelatihan pengelola umkm; (c) pelatihan budaya, motivasi usaha dan teknis manajeman umkm; (d) pembinaan sentra-sentra produksi di daerah terisolir dan tertinggal; (e) fasilitasi sarana dan prasarana usaha mikro; (f) pemberdayaan ekonomi masyarakat pesisir; (g) pengembangan usaha perikanan tangkap skala kecil; (h) peningkatan akses informasi dan pelayanan pendampingan pemberdayaan dan ketahanan keluarga; (i) peningkatan koordinasi penanggulangan kemiskinan berbasis kesempatan berusaha bagi masyarakat miskin. (3) meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah secara berkelanjutan program ini bertujuan untuk meningkatkan jaminan adanya pertumbuhan ekonomi secara terus-menerus pada wilayah-wilayah distrik yang memiliki kerentanan pada peningkatan jumlah masyarakat miskin. langkah ini dilakukan dengan berbagai kegiatan, yaitu: (a) percepatan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang menyeluruh di semua distrik; (b) peningkatan akses sumber daya modal dan input lain untuk mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi dan mengurangi tingkat kemiskinan; (c) pengembangan program-program pembangunan pemerintah untuk meningkatkan penggunaan tenaga kerja/padat karya; (d) pertumbuhan ekonomi dan pembangunan sektor swasta; (e) pertumbuhan ekonomi dan prasarana fisik dan non fisik. (4) memperluas cakupan program pembangunan berbasis masyarakat program ini bertujuan meningkatkan sinergi dan optimalisasi pemberdayaan masyarakat di kawasan perdesaan dan perkotaan serta memperkuat penyediaan dukungan pengembangan kesempatan berusaha bagi penduduk miskin. langkah ini meliputi kegiatan prioritas sebagai berikut: (a) program pemberdayaan masyarakat jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015: 220-232 228 di daerah perdesaan (program pengembangan daerah pedalaman); (b) program pemberdayaan masyarakat di daerah perkotaan (program penanggulangan kemiskinan di pusat distrik); (c) program pengembangan infrastruktur sosial ekonomi wilayah; (d) program pembangunan wilayah distrik yang tertinggal dan khusus; (e) penyempurnaan dan pemantapan program pembangunan berbasis masyarakat. (5) meningkatkan akses masyarakat miskin kepada pelayanan dasar program ini bertujuan meningkatkan akses penduduk miskin memenuhi kebutuhan pendidikan, kesehatan, dan prasarana dasar. langkah ini meliputi kegiatan prioritas sebagai berikut: (a) penyediaan beasiswa bagi siswa miskin pada jenjang pendidikan dasar di sekolah dasar (sd)/madrasah ibtidaiyah (mi) dan sekolah menengah pertama (smp)/ madrasah tsanawiyah (mts); (b) beasiswa siswa miskin jenjang sekolah menengah atas/ sekolah menengah kejuruan/madrasah aliyah (sma/smk/ma); (c) beasiswa untuk mahasiswa miskin dan beasiswa berprestasi; (d) pelayanan kesehatan rujukan bagi keluar`ga miskin secara cuma-cuma di kelas iii rumah sakit; (e) pelayanan kesehatan dasar bagi keluarga miskin secara cuma-cuma di puskesmas; (f) jaminan pelayanan kb berkualitas bagi rakyat miskin. (6) membangun dan menyempurnakan sistem perlindungan sosial bagi masyarakat miskin program ini bertujuan melindungi penduduk miskin dari kemungkinan ketidakmampuan menghadapi guncangan sosial dan ekonomi. hal ini meliputi kegiatan prioritas sebagai berikut: (a) peningkatan kapasitas kelembagaan pengarusutamaan gender (pug) dan anak (pua);(b) pemberdayaan sosial keluarga, fakir miskin, komunitas adat terpencil, dan penyandang masalah kesejahteraan sosial lainnya; (c) bantuan sosial untuk masyarakat rentan, korban bencana alam, dan korban bencana sosial; (d) penyediaan bantuan tunai bagi rumah tangga sangat miskin menjamin keberadaan anak usia sekolah di sd/mi dan smp/mts untuk bisa tetap sekolah; (e) peningkatan pelayanan sosial dasar bagi penyandang masalah kesejahteraan sosial termasuk anak, lanjut usia dan penyandang cacat; penyaluran beras bersubsidi untuk keluarga miskin (raskin). (7) upaya mengatasi kekurangan gizi parah. program ini dilakukan dengan tujuan untuk mengurangi adanya gizi buruk bagi masyarakat miskin dalam jangka pendek. program ini dapat dilakukan antara lain melalui: (a) penanggulangan kekurangan sumber energi bagi penduduk miskin, (b) pemberdayaan masyarakat untuk pencapaian keluarga sadar gizi, (c) pemberian subsidi pangan bagi penduduk miskin, (d) peningkatan partisipasi masyarakat melalui revitalisasi pelayanan kesehatan, (e) pelayanan gizi bagi ibu hamil dan balitadari keluarga miskin. (8) program peningkatan sarana dan prasarana wilayah program ini bertujuan untuk meningkatkan kualita sarana dan prasarana wilayah sehingga akan meningkatkan akses masyarakat miskin. langkah prioritas ini dilakukan antara lain dengan: (a) penyediaan sarana irigasi, air bersih dan sanitasi dasar terutama daerah-daerah langka sumber air bersih; (b) pembangunan jalan, jembatan, dan dermaga terutama wilayah distrik yangterisolasi dan tertinggal; (c) redistribusi sumber dana kepada distrik yang memiliki pendapatan rendah untuk pengembangan sumber daya manusia dan sumber daya alam. (d) pengembangan fasilitas-fasilitas pelabuhan dan nelayan untuk meningkatkan produksi perikanan; (e) peningkatan keterlibatan masyarakat dalam pembangunan sarana dan prasarana wilayah (9) peningkatan tata kelola pemerintahan yang baik program ini bertujuan meningkatkan efektivitas pelaksanaan program penanggulangan kemiskinan. hal ini dapat dilakukan dengan: (a) peningkatan kapasitas tata kelola penganggulangan kemiskinan yang berfokus pada peningkatan kapasitas birokrasi (b) peningkatan kualitas good government governance (3g)untuk kelembagaan pemerintah daerah dan di distrik; (c) peningkatan kualitas good corporate governance (gcg) untuk meningkatkan peran sektor swasta dalam penanggulangan kemiskinan; (d) kemitraan dengan masyarakat sipil (public private partnership) dalam penaggulangan kemiskinan; (e) integrasi dengan strategi penanggulangan kemiskinan provinsi dan nasional. penyusunan indikator dan pemetaan ...(nano prawoto, agus tri basuki) 229 simpulan masalah kemiskinan di kabupaten kulon progo pada dasarnya merupakan persoalan yang hingga saat ini belum teratasi dan akan terus memerlukan penanganan yang komprehensif. rangkaian perubahan kondisi sosial, ekonomi, budaya, dan politik di daerah telah membentuk kekhasan karakter kemiskinan di kabupaten kulon progo. oleh karena itu, sangatlah penting dipertimbangkan faktor-faktor penyebab kemiskinan sebagai landasan awal dalam penanganan permasalahan kemiskinan. berdasarkan survei dan analisis data-data sekunder yang telah dilakukan, yang digali darisumber masyarakat miskin itu sendiri, maka untuk mengurangi tingkat kemiskinan hanya bisa dilakukan dengan memutus faktor-faktor penyebab kemiskinan itu sendiri. penyebab kemiskinan di kabupaten kulon progo terdiri atas berbagai faktor yang komplek dan saling berkaitan, yaitu kondisi geografis, kualitas manusia, sarana prasarana dan kondisi alam yang kurang mendukung berkembangnya kegiatan ekonomi sehingga mengakibatkan terbatasnya akses sumber daya, distribusi barang, rendahnya pendidikan, potensi ancaman tingkat kesehatan, serta berujung pada rendahnya tingkat pendapatan, kepemilikan aset dan rendahnya tingkat kesejahteraan masyarakat. penanggulangan kemiskinan memerlukan strategi besar yang bersifat holistik dengan program yang saling mendukung satu dengan lainnya sehingga upaya pemahaman terhadap penyebab kemiskinan perlu dilakukan dengan baik. sebagai dasar utama untuk menyusun strategi besar pembangunan nasional tersebut adalah politik ekonomi yang berpihak terhadap kaum miskin dan berkeadilan. adapun yang menjadi elemen utama dalam strategi besar tersebut adalah pendekatan people driven di mana rakyat akan menjadi aktor penting dalam setiap formulasi kebijakan dan pengambilan keputusan kebijakan dan program. untuk mensukseskan hal itu diperlukan pelaksanaan perubahan paradigma yang meredefinisi peran pemerintah yang akan lebih memberi otonomi pada rakyat, adanya transformasi kelembagaan dari yang bersifat represif menjadi representatif, dan transparansi penyelenggaraan pemerintahan dalam program penanggulangan kemiskinan. untuk menguragi tingkat kemiskinan diperlukan program-program pemerintah yang efektif dapat mencapai sasaran peningkatan kesejahteraan masyarakat miskin. dalam pelaksanaan berbagai program pengurangan tingkat kemiskinan yang dapat disatukan menjadi strategi besar, perlu dilaksankan dengan pendekatan sebagai berikut: (1) program penanggulangan kemiskinan pada daerah kemiskinan berat. program penanggulangan kemiskinan pada daerah yang termasuk kategori kantong kemiskinan berat ini dilaksanakan secara menyeluruh atas 9 program yang telah direkomendasikan pada hasil kajian ini. adapun prioritas masing-masing program disesuaikan dengan kebutuhan dan kondisi masing-masing distrik. dalam pelaksanannya, program-program ini bisa bersifat generik, artinya program yang dilaksanakan pada beberapa distrik bisa bersifat seragam. pada kasus ini program penanggulangan kemiskinan dilakukan untuk meningkatkan kapasitas masyarakat dalam berbagai aspek, yaitu ekonomi, kesehatan, pendidikan dan sosial. (2) program penanggulangan kemiskinan pada daerah kemiskinan sedang program penanggulangan kemiskinan pada daerahyang termasuk kategori kantong kemiskinan sedang dilaksanakan secara menyeluruh atas 9 program yang telah direkomendasikan pada hasil kajian ini. namun prioritas masingmasing program didasarkan pada penyebab utama kemiskinan yang dialami oleh masyarakat. pada kasus ini, program penaggulangan kemiskinan lebih diutamakan untuk memutus faktor penyebab kemiskinan yang utama. dengan demikian program ini bisa lebih bersifat khusus, misalnya program yang khusus untuk meningkatkan derajat kesehatan masyarakat, program khusus pengembangan industri kecil dan sebagianya. (3) program penanggulangan kemiskinan pada daerah bukan kantong kemiskinan program penanggulangan kemiskinan pada daerahyang termasuk kategori bukan kantong kemiskinan dapat dilaksanakan secara menyeluruh atas 9 program yang telah direkomendasikan pada hasil kajian ini. namun prioritas masing-masing program didasarkan pada tar jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015: 220-232 230 get grup masyarakat miskin. artinya programprogram yang dilaksanakan bisa bersifat spesifik tergantung pada karakteristik kemiskinan yang terjadi pada masing-masing kelompok masyarakat, dengan kata lain program-program pada daerah/distrik ini dilaksankan untuk mendorong berkembangnya kapasitas masyarakat menuju masyarakat yang lebih mandiri. daftar pustaka haris, abdul. (2007). analisis faktor-faktor kemiskinan di daerah hutan kabupaten probolinggo. jurnal aflikasi manajemen. vol. 5 no. 1, april.upm. probolinggo, 2007. lastario, arie. (1989). analisis perbandingan peningkatan pendapatan dan pemerataan. jakarta: yayasan pengembangan keterampilan dan mutu kehidupan nusantara bappenas. 1994. panduan program inpres desa tertinggal. jakarta: badan perencanaan pembangunan nasional – departemen dalam negeri, 1994. m. nuh. nasir, saicrudin dan maulizar. (2008). rumah tangga di purworejo. jurnal eksekutif. vol. 5 no. 4,. lipi. jakarta, agustus 2008. mulyo, sumedi andono. (2005). strategi nasional penanggulangan kemiskinan. jakarta: komite penanggulangan kemiskinan. jakarta. nugroho, gunarso dwi. (2006). modul globalisasi. banyumas: cv. cahaya pustaka. kecamatan temon dalam angka 2011 kecamatan wates dalam angka 2011 kecamatan sentolo dalam angka 2011 kecamatan samigaluh dalam angka 2011 kecamatan pengasih dalam angka 2011 kecamatan kokap dalam angka 2011 kecamatan girimulyo dalam angka 2011 kecamatan nanggulan dalam angka 2011 kecamatan kalibawang dalam angka 2011 kecamatan galur dalam angka 2011 kecamatan lendah dalam angka 2011 kecamatan panjatan dalam angka 2011 lampiran tabel 1. ukuran indikator kemiskinan aspek penyebab kemiskinan indikator kemiskinan masyarakat parameter skor maks (n) bobot (b) score maks (nxb) 1. aspek ekonomi (30%) 1) pendapatan tetap rata-rata penghasilan masyarakatminimal rp. 259.128. 10 1 10 2) ketergantungan pada sektor pertanian sumber pendapatan tidak tergantung dari sektor pertanian 7,5 1 7,5 3) kegiatan wirausaha /industri ada kegiatan wirausaha /industri 7,5 1 7,5 4) penganggguran masyarakat memiliki penghasilan tetap 5 1 5 2. aspek geografi (20%) 1) kondisi topografi mendukung kegiatan ekonomi 5 1 5 2) kondisi geografis mendukung kegiatan ekonomi 5 1 5 3) ada sumber daya alam yang sudah terolah ada dan sudah terolah 5 1 5 4) ketersediaan sarana dan prasarana transportasi ada dan lancar 5 1 5 3. kesehatan (25%) 1) akses kesehatan a. tidak ada akses ke sarana kesehatan tidak mampu membiayai pelayanan kesehatan 10 0,6 0,4 6 4 2) sikap hidup a. budaya hidup tidak sehat b. adat yang tidak mendukung 7 0,2 0,3 3 4 penyusunan indikator dan pemetaan ...(nano prawoto, agus tri basuki) 231 aspek penyebab kemiskinan indikator kemiskinan masyarakat parameter skor maks (n) bobot (b) score maks (nxb) 3) tempat tinggal a. rumah tidak kokoh/ permanen. b. tidak memiliki mck sendiri. c. tidak menggunakan fasilitas energi. d. kesulitan air bersih. 8 0,2 0,2 0,2 0,2 2 2 2 2 4. pendidikandan sosial (25%) 1) pendidikan a. tidak tamat sekolah dasar 6 tahun. b. tidak mampu membiayai anggota keluarga pendidikan 9 tahun c. akses ke sekolah menengah atas 15 0,5 0,25 0,25 9 3 3 2) budaya d. sikap mental dan perilaku positif 5 1 5 3) jumlah keluarga. e. tanggungan keluarga lebih besar sama dengan4 orang. 5 1 5 jumlah 100 100 keterangan :batasan masyarakat suatu kecamatan masuk kriteria miskin apabila memperoleh skor<71 tabel 3. perkembangan pdrb kabupaten kulon progo tahun 2007-2011 lapangan usaha 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 pertanian 424.719 454.656 474.560 467.714 496.676 pertambangan & penggalian 17.686 17.027 18.527 12.664 15.395 industri pengolahan 251.351 255.420 261.033 271.689 268.349 listrik, gas dan air bersih 9.611 10.333 11.006 11.586 12.068 bangunan 77.911 82.096 85.790 91.657 100.658 perdagangan, hotel & restoran 266.357 281.420 293.574 307.245 329.807 pengangkutan & komunikasi 163.555 171.336 179.404 184.299 188.623 keuangan, persewaan & jasa perusahaan 98.323 101.551 110.230 116.678 117.684 jasa-jasa 278.112 288.531 294.178 317.694 341.076 pdrb 1.587.625 1.662.370 1.728.302 1.781.226 1.870.336 tabel 7. target kemiskinan kabupaten kulon progo tahun 2013 -2016 target 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 kk 23,14 21,64 20,14 18,64 17,14 jiwa 22,23 20,73 19,23 17,73 16,23 tabel 8. garis kemiskinan, jumlah penduduk miskin, dan persentase penduduk miskin di kabupaten kulon progotahun 2005-2012 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015: 220-232 232 tabel 9. target kemiskinan kabupaten kulon progo tahun 2013 -2016 target 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 kk 23,14 21,64 20,14 18,64 17,14 jiwa 22,23 20,73 19,23 17,73 16,23 microsoft word 05-ahmad maruf jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 13, nomor 1, april 2012, hlm.43-52   strategi pengembangan investasi di daerah: pemberian insentif ataukah kemudahan? ahmad ma’ruf fakultas ekonomi universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta jalan lingkar selatan, tamantirto, kasihan, bantul, yogyakarta e-mail: macrov_jogja@yahoo.com abstract: the activities of the development of investment, are strongly associated with accomplishment of an objective of economic development of the region, such as create jobs, achieve economic stability of the region, and developing a diverse economic base. the study of the analysis of the policy of granting incentives and ease the field of investment in the region is expected to increase investment of the implementation of the formulation strategic based on analysis need (need assessment) stakeholders. the data used, from primary and secondary with the technique of a gathering of an interview that is guided by a questionnaire, documentation, and focus group discussion (fgd) stakeholders. the results of the study is that in order to attract new investment and encourage increased investment in terms of strategic policy, then it more emphasized the policy options that provide various facilities investment than incentives. keywords: public policy, incentives, regional economic, investment abstrak: kegiatan pengembangan penanaman modal, sangat terkait dengan pencapaian tujuan pembangunan ekonomi daerah, seperti menciptakan lapangan kerja, mencapai stabilitas ekonomi daerah, dan mengembangkan basis ekonomi yang beragam. studi analisis kebijakan pemberian insentif dan kemudahan bidang penanaman modal di daerah ini diharapkan mampu meningkatkan penanaman modal dari implementasi rumusan strategik yang didasarkan pada analisis kebutuhan (need assessment) stakeholders. data yang digunakan bersifat primer dan sekunder, dengan teknik pengumpulan wawancara dipandu kuesioner, dokumentasi, dan focus group discussion (fgd)stakeholders. kajian ini dilakukan pada daerah istimewa yogyakarta. alat analisis meliputi studi kepustakaan, deskriptif kualitatif untuk kebijakan publik, dan analisis swot. dihasilkan bahwa dalam rangka menarik investasi baru maupun mendorong peningkatan penanaman modal dari sisi kebijakan strategis lebih dikedepankan pilihan kebijakan memberikan berbagai kemudahan penanaman modal daripada pemberian insentif. kata kunci: kebijakan publik, pemberian insentif, ekonomi daerah, penanaman modal pendahuluan pengembangan penanaman modal merupakan kebijakan yang membawa dampak ekonomi cukup luas, yaitu terjadinya peningkatan jumlah barang dan jasa, penciptaan nilai tambah, peggunaan tenaga kerja, dan sumber daya ekonomi lainnya, peningkatan pendapatan masyarakat, serta sebagai sumber pendapatan daerah berupa pajak dan retribusi. pengembangan penanaman modal di daerah, selain untuk meningkatkan kapasitas ekonomi daerah yang secara langsung akan meningkatkan kesejahteraan masyarakat secara umum, juga akan berdampak positif bagi peningkatan kapasitas fiskal daerah. pada tingkat nasional, kebijakan pengembangan penanaman modal diarahkan untuk: (1) mendukung pertumbuhan berkelanjutan dan meningkatkan iklim penanaman modal; (2) jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 13, nomor 1, april 2012: 43-52 44 mendorong fdi untuk memperbaiki daya saing ekonomi nasional; meningkatkan kapasitas infrastruktur fisik; membangun penanaman modal dalam kerangka pelaksanaan demokrasi ekonomi yang diperuntukkan bagi kesejahteraan seluruh masyarakat;dan (3) meningkatkan realisasi penanaman modal ke seluruh indonesia. konsep dasar pengembangan penanaman modal tentu diarahkan pada peningkatan produktivitas secara agregat. untuk mencapai itu, diperlukan dukungan iklim penanaman modal yang “conducive”, antara lain adalah (1) adanya kepastian, kestabilan dan keamanan; (2) stabilitas makro ekonomi (inflasi, suku bunga dan kurs, sistem moneter dan fiskal yang sustainable); (3) reformasi birokrasi, perpajakan, kebijakan, aturan; (4) penyediaan infrastruktur yang cukup (listrik, air, pelabuhan, jalan, dan sebagainya); (5) tenaga kerja yang mengacu pada produktivitas; (6) sdm, pendidikan, kesehatan, disiplin, motivasi; (7) setiap daerah harus fokus pada sektor industri unggulan; dan (8) menjalin kerjasama sinergis antardaerah. kegiatan pengembangan penanaman modal, sangat terkait dengan pencapaian tujuan pembangunan ekonomi daerah. konsepsi pembangunan ekonomi daerah, menurut lincoln arsyad (1999:122) memiliki tujuan: (1) menciptakan lapangan kerja; (2) mencapai stabilitas ekonomi daerah; (3) mengembangkan basis ekonomi yang beragam. lapangan kerja diperlukan agar penduduk mempunyai penghasilan untuk memenuhi kebutuhan-kebutuhan hidupnya. agar lapangan kerja dapat tercipta, diperlukan persyaratan antara lain tersedianya lahan, modal, prasarana. stabilitas ekonomi daerah perlu dipertahankan agar pelaku usaha dan masyarakat dapat melakukan berbagai upaya secara terencana. stabilitas ekonomi mencakup inflasi yang rendah, adanya peraturan usaha yang jelas disertai penegakan hukum yang konsisten, dan tidak adanya gangguan keamanan. setiap daerah dalam suatu negara mempunyai tujuan yang sama, yaitu menemukan cara untuk menciptakan lapangan kerja yang luas untuk memberikan penghasilan dan menaikkan kualitas hidup bagi masyarakat. walaupun pemerintah pusat memainkan peran penting dalam pengembangan ekonomi melalui undang-undang, kebijakan fiskal, dan kebijakan pembangunan, namun keberhasilan atau kegagalan perkembangan ekonomi daerah sering tergantung pada apa yang terjadi pada tingkat kawasan. kemampuan daerah untuk menggunakan sumber daya alam dan bakat lokal untuk mendukung inovasi yang kuat adalah kunci penggerak pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah. oleh sebab itu, langkah pertama yang harus dilakukan oleh pemerintah daerah adalah mengenali kekuatan inovasi yang menciptakan keberhasilan usaha, seperti kemampuan untuk mentransformasi gagasan dan pengetahuan baru dalam membuat barang atau pelayanan yang berkualitas. inovasi yang tak henti-hentinya menciptakan produk bernilai tinggi akan memperluas perdagangan dan penguasaan pasar, dengan demikian memberi manfaat bagi perusahaan dan pekerja dengan keuntungan yang lebih besar, upah lebih tinggi. untuk mencapai tujuan pembangunan ekonomi daerah tersebut, maka strategi pembangunan ekonomi daerah yang perlu dilakukan adalah: pengembangan fisik/lokalitas, pengembangan dunia usaha, pengembangan sdm, dan pengembangan masyarakat (lincoln arsyad: 1999). pengembangan fisik dilakukan antara lain dengan menyediakan lahan untuk kegiatan usaha, pengaturan tata ruang untuk berbagai kegiatan penduduk, menyediakan prasarana dan sarana seperti jalan, pelabuhan, listrik, air bersih. pengembangan dunia usaha dilakukan antara lain dengan menciptakan iklim usaha yang baik melalui penetapan kebijakan dan peraturan yang memudahkan pelaku ekonomi untuk menjalankan usahanya, menyediakan informasi mengenai perijinan, kebijakan dan rencana pemerintah daerah, sumber-sumber pendanaan, dan lain lain; mendirikan media konsultasi bagi pengusaha dan masyarakat mengenai peluang usaha, masalah-masalah yang dihadapi, dan lain-lain. sementara itu, pengembangan sdm dilakukan antara lain dengan pelatihan dan pendidikan. pengembangan ekonomi masyarakat dilakukan terutama dengan memberdayakan masyarakat agar mampu memanfaatkan peluang yang ada dan mengatasi persoalan ekonomi yang dihastrategi pengembangan investasi di daerah (ahmad ma’ruf) 45 dapi secara mandiri. pada hakekatnya, penanaman modal merupakan kegiatan yang dilakukan oleh pemerintah pusat maupun daerah, pihak swasta, dan institusi lain baik dari luar maupun dalam negeri agar pertumbuhan ekonomi yang diinginkan dapat tercapai. secara sederhana kegiatan penanaman modal merupakan pendapatan yang dibelanjakan oleh perusahaan atau lembaga pemerintah untuk barang-barang modal yang akan digunakan untuk kegiatan produktif. dengan demikian, peran penanaman modal menjadi strategis dalam suatu perekonomian.tanpa penanaman modal yang cukup tidak dapat diharapkan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang diharapkan serta peningkatan kesejahteraan ekonomi masyarakat. kebijakan penanaman modal yang tepat diharapkan dapat menjadi pemicu perluasan kesempatan kerja di suatu daerah. studi perumusan strategi pengembangan penanaman modal dibangun dalam perspektif pengembangan daya saing daerah. world economic forum (wef),mendefinisikan daya saing sebagai kemampuan perekonomian nasional untuk mencapai pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tingi dan berkelanjutan. institute of management and development (imd) mendefinisikan daya saing nasional sebagai kemampuan suatu negara dalam menciptakan nilai tambah dalam rangka menambah kekayan nasional dengan cara mengelola aset dan proses, daya tarik dan agresivitas, globalitas dan proksimitas, serta dengan mengintegrasikan hubungan-hubungan tersebut ke dalam suatu model ekonomi dan sosial. departemen perdagangan dan industri inggris mendefinisikan daya saing daerah sebagai kemampuan suatu daerah dalam menghasilkan pendapatan dan kesempatan kerja yang tinggi dengan tetap terbuka terhadap persaingan domestik maupun internasional (abdullah, et.al; 2002:13). sedangkan centre for regional and urban studies (curds), inggris, mendefinisikan daya saing daerah sebagai kemampuan sektor bisnis atau perusahan pada suatu daerah dalam menghasilkan pendapatan yang tinggi serta tingkat kekayaan yang lebih merata untuk penduduknya. meyer dan stamer (dalam cho, 2003) memandang daya saing dalam skala lebih luas, ia menyebutkannya dengan daya saing sistemik. konsep daya saing sistemik berusaha untuk mencakup faktor politik dan faktor ekonomi dari keberhasilan pembangunan industri. hal ini mengacu pada pola dimana negara dan aktor-aktor sosial secara terarah menciptakan kondisi bagi keberhasilan pembangunan industri sebagai daya saing sistemik. konsep ini dibedakan dalam dalam empat tingkat, yaitu: microlevel pada jaringan perusahaan dan jaringan antarperusahaan, mesolevel pada kebijakan dan institusi tertentu, macrolevel dari kondisi ekonomi umum dan metalevel pada variabel lambat seperti struktur-struktur sosial budaya, aturan dan orientasi dasar ekonomi, dan kemampuan aktor-aktor sosial merumuskan strategi. konsep daya saing sistemik tidak dimaksudkan sebagai sebuah cetak biru tetapi suatu usaha untuk memberikan orientasi baik untuk penelitian maupun kerja konsultasi. kondisi riil yang sekarang terjadi, pada tiap daerah, bahkan negara mengalami tentangan dalam pengembangan penanaman modal. tantangan yang bersifat eksternal yang paling nyata ada meningkatnya persaingan antardaerah maupun negara dalam menarik investor. sementara itu, secara internal ada banyak kelemahan dan tantangan seperti: ketersediaan infrastruktur yang mendukung kegiatan penanaman modal; ketersedian energy; perangkat peraturan pusat dan daerah; perijinan penanaman modal baik di pusat dan daerah; penyebaran penanaman modal yang belum merata; dan belum optimalnya pelaksanaan alih teknologi. kegiatan penanaman modal telah menjadi bagian dari penyelenggaraan perekonomian nasional dan ditempatkan sebagai upaya untuk meningkatkan perekonomian daerah. kegiatan penanaman modal di daerah selama ini sangat berperan penting antara lain dalam meningkatkan pendapatan masyarakat dan menyerap tenaga kerja lokal. oleh karena itu perlu adanya kebijakan penanaman modal yang dapat menstimulasi masuknya pemodal untuk menanamkan modalnya di daerah. kebijakan itu antara lain perbaikan regulasi yang mendukung penanaman modal, penyederhanaan prosedur perijinan, pemberian kemudahan dan insentif dalam bidang penanaman modal. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 13, nomor 1, april 2012: 43-52 46 upaya daerah untuk meningkatkan penanaman modal melalui pemberian insentif dan/ atau pemberian kemudahan bagi penanam modal tergolong masih rendah. hal ini berakibat pada daya saing daerah semakin menurun. padahal untuk menarik penanam modal dibutuhkan daya tarik baik dalam bentuk insentif ataupun kemudahan dalam bidang penanaman modal. kebijakan pemberian insentif itu sendiri dapat berupa keringanan pajak sedangkan pemberian kemudahan dapat berupa penyederhanaan prosedur perijinan dan penyediaan sarana dan prasarana pendukung investasi. oleh karena itu, studi analisis kebijakan pemberian insentif dan kemudahan bidang penanaman modal di daerah perlu dilaksanakan sebagai bahan acuan dalam merumuskan kebijakan yang diharapkan mampu meningkatkan penanaman modal. kebijakan pemberian insentif dan pemberian kemudahan di daerah disusun untuk menjawab permasalahan belum adanya kebijakan/regulasi daerah yang mengatur tentang insentif dan kemudahan bidang penanaman modal. tujuan studi ini adalah menyusun analisis kebutuhan (need assessment) rumusan kebijakan strategis yang perlu ditempuh dalam rangka percepatan peningkatan penanaman modal di daerah. metode penelitian studi ini menggunakan beberapa pendekatan utama, yaitu pendekatan perencanaan berbasis stakeholders. model pendekatan dalam studi penyusunan kebijakan strategik ini dikembangkan secara partisipatif (participatory approach). pendekatan ini menjembatani dua kutub kepentingan dan kebutuhan dari masyarakat umum, swasta/pelaku usaha, dan dari pemerintah sehingga tumpuan analisis lebih dititik beratkan pada pemenuhan kebutuhan stakeholders. studi ini berorientasi berorientasi kepada upaya peningkatan kesejahteraan masyarakat. pengembangan penanaman modal secara substantif berorientasi pada upaya peningkatan kesejahteraan masyarakat, khususnya pada aspek penyediaan barang dan jasa, kesempatan kerja, dan penciptaan nilai tambah. adanya peningkatan penanaman modal juga akan meningkatkan pedapatan asli daerah (pad) yang berimplikasi pada peningkatan sumber-sumber apbd sehingga dana publik tersebut dapat dialokasikan untuk pelayanan publik dan pembangunan daerah. dengan demikian, secara langsung diyakini kegiatan ini akan dapat meningkatkan kesejahteraan masyarakat dalam arti luas. studi ini mengambil sampel di provinsi diy. data yang dibutuhkan dalam penelitian ini, baik data utama maupun data pendukung, baik data yang bersifat primer maupun sekunder, maka teknik pengumpulan data yang digunakan adalah wawancara dipandu kuesioner; dokumentasi; dan focus group discussion (fgd) bersama stakeholders untuk menggali data yang berhubungan dengan pengembangan penanaman modal di daerah. analisis yang digunakan untuk merumuskan kebijakan strategik untuk akselerasi penanaman modal di daerah menggunakan alat analisis: (1) studi kepustakaan. analisis ini digunakan untuk mereview berbagai data dan informasi yang terkumpul dari dokumen-dokumen perencanaan, hasil penelitian, buku dan peraturan yang relevan. (2) deskriptif kualitatif untuk kebijakan publik. analisis ini digunakan untuk mengetahui atau menggambarkan kecenderungan kebutuhan kebijakan publik yang terkait dengan pemberian insentif dan kemudahan bidang penanaman modal. (3) analisis swot yaitu suatu cara untuk mengidentifikasi berbagai faktor secara sistematis dalam rangka merumuskan kebijakan berbagai strategi pengembangan penanaman modal daerah melalui pemberian insentif dan kemudahan investasi. analisis ini didasarkan pada logika dapat memaksimalkan kekuatan (strength) dan peluang (opportunities), namun secara bersamaan dapat meminimalkan kelemahan (weaknesses) dan ancaman (threats). analisis swot mempertimbangkan faktor lingkungan internal strengths dan weaknesses serta lingkungan eksternal oportunities dan threats yang dihadapi institusi/lembaga. analisis swot membandingkan antara faktor eksternal peluang (opportunities) dan ancaman dengan faktor internal kekuatan dan kelemahan sehingga dari analisis tersebut dapat diambil suatu keputusan strategik. strategi pengembangan investasi di daerah (ahmad ma’ruf) 47 hasil dan pembahasan review kebijakan penanaman modal uu nomor 25/2007mengatur bahwa penanaman modal mempunyai pokok-pokok kebijakan: perlakuan yang sama terhadap pmdn maupun pma; tidak ada persyaratan modal minimum; dapat melakukan transfer dan repatriasi terhadap modal dan keuntungan; terdapat jaminan hokum; dan penyelesaian sengketa. fasilitas penanaman modal berupa hak atas tanah yang terdiri dari hak guna usaha, hak guna bangunan dan hak pakai; fasilitas imigrasi bagi investor dan tenaga kerja asing; dan insentif fiskal berupa pengurangan pajak penghasilan dan keringanan bea masuk. setelah uu nomor 25 tahun 2007 dikeluarkan, terdapat serangkaian peraturan dan ketentuan yang diterbitkan berkaitan dengan penanaman modal. salah satunya adalah peraturan pemerintah nomor 45 tahun 2008 tentang pedoman pemberian insentif dan pemberian kemudahan penanaman modal di daerah. pp 45/2008 tersebut berisi antara lain pemberian insentif bentuknya berbagai macam, antara lain: pengurangan, keringanan atau pembebasan pajak daerah; pengurangan, keringanan, atau pembebasan retribusi daerah; pemberian dana stimulan; pemberian bantuan modal. sementara itu, pemberian kemudahan terkait dengan penanaman modal di daerah bentuknya dapat berupa: penyediaan data dan informasi peluang penanaman modal; penyediaan sarana dan prasarana; penyediaan lahan atau lokasi;pemberian bantuan teknis; dan percepatan pemberian perizinan. berdasarkan pasal 5 dari pp 45/2008 ditegaskan bahwa pemberian insentif dan pemberian kemudahan diberikan kepada penanaman modal yang sekurang-kurangnya memenuhi salah satu criteria sebagai berikut: (1) memberikan kontribusi bagi peningkatan pendapatan; (2) menyerap tenaga kerja lokal; (3) menggunakan sebagian besar sumber daya lokal; (4) memberikan kontribusi bagi peningkatan pelayanan publik; (5) memberikan kontribusi dalam peningkatan produk domestik regional bruto (pdrb); (6) berwawasan lingkungan dan berkelanjutan; (7) termasuk alih teknologi; (8) melakukan industri pionir; (9) berada di daerah terpencil, daerah tertinggal, atau daerah perbatasan; (10) melaksanakan kegiatan penelitian, pengembangan, dan inovasi; (12) bermitra dengan usaha mikro, kecil, menengah, atau koperasi; (13) industri yang menggunakan barang modal, mesin, atau peralatan yang diproduksi di dalam negeri. implementasi atas ketentuan pemberian insentif dan kemudahan oleh tiap daerah, sebagaimana diatur dalam pasal 7 pp 45/2008 bahwa ketentuan pemberian insentif dan/atau pemberian kemudahan penanaman modal di daerah diatur dengan perda yang sekurangkurangnya memuat antara lain: (1) tata cara memperoleh pemberian insentif dan pemberian kemudahan; (2) kriteria pemberian insentif dan pemberian kemudahan; (3) dasar penilaian pemberian insentif dan pemberian kemudahan; (4) jenis usaha atau kegiatan penanaman modal yang diprioritaskan memperoleh insentif dan kemudahan; (5) bentuk-bentuk insentif dan kemudahan yang dapat diberikan;dan (6) pengaturan pembinaan dan pengawasan. hasil review beberapa kebijakan terkait dengan pelayanan penanaman modal di daerah setelah kebijakan desentralisasi (otonomi daerah), maka tampak ada beberapa kebijakan acuan dalam penyelenggaraan pelayanan administrasi penanaman modal di daerah, antara lain meliputi keppres no. 97/1993 tentang tatacara penanaman modal sebagaimana telah diubah dengan keppres no. 115/1998 jo. keppres no. 117/1999, keputusan meninves/ kepala bkpm no. 38/sk/1999 tentang pedoman dan tatacara permohonan penanaman modal yang didirikan dalam rangka pma dan pmdn, dan keppres no. 29/2004 tentang penyelenggaraan penanaman modal dalam rangka pma dan pmdn melalaui sistem pelayanan satu atap. berdasarkan kajian asropi (2008) bahwa pelaksanaan pelayanan administrasi penanaman modal di daerah melalui sistem satu atap (sebelum tahun 2008), karakter pelayanan tidak jauh dari gambaran pelayanan birokrasi yang tidak efektif dan efisien. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 13, nomor 1, april 2012: 43-52 48 analisis kebutuhan kebijakan fasilitasi penanaman modal hasil need assessment atas kebutuhan kebijakan pemberian insentif dan kemudahan penanaman modal melalui analisis kebijakan termasuk analisis resiko atas pilihan jenis kebijakan yang didasarkan dari document review, hasil interview dan fgd bahwa untuk menarik investor ke daerah pada saat ini bagi pemerintah daerah harus terlebih dahulu mengetahui keinginankeinginan oleh calon investor. secara umum keinginan dari investor terhadap situasi di daerah antara lain adalah (fauzan, 2006): iklim investasi yang kondusif berupa kepastian hukum/berusaha; stabilitas ekonomi, sosial, politik, dan keamanan; kemudahan pelayanan (perizinan, keimigrasian, kepabeanan, perpajakan, pertanahan); insentif (fiskal & nonfiskal) yang kompetitif; infrastruktur yang memadai; dan kondisi ketenagakerjaan sementara itu, hasil dari hasil interview dengan nara sumber para pelaku ekonomi yang diwakili para pengurus kadin dan asosiasi, serta pejabat dinas/instansi yang terkait dengan pelayanan penanaman modal, serta dari beberapa akademisi yang memiliki kompetensi dalam bidang ekonomi dan bisnis bahwa sebagaimana diatur dalam dalam pasal 3 pp 45/2008 bahwa tiap pemda memiliki keleluasaan dalam hal menarik investor dan upaya peningkatan penanaman modal melalui pemberian insentif yang bentuknya berbagai macam, seperti: (1) pengurangan, keringanan atau pembebasan pajak daerah; (2) pengurangan, keringanan, atau pembebasan retribusi daerah; (3) pemberian dana stimulan; (4) pemberian bantuan modal. selain itu, upaya peningkatan penanaman modal di daerah juga dapat dilakukan dengan kebijakan pemberian kemudahan terkait dengan penanaman modal yang bentuknya dapat berupa: (1) penyediaan data dan informasi peluang penanaman modal; (2) penyediaan sarana dan prasarana; (3) penyediaan lahan atau lokasi; (4) pemberian bantuan teknis; (5) percepatan pemberian perizinan. mencermati persyaratan dasar yang diatur dalam peraturan tersebut di atas, maka tampak dari sisi alasan pemberian insentif maupun pemberian kemudahan akan sangat mudah ditetapkan. dari 12 item persyaratan dasar, hanya diperlukan salah satu item yang terpenuhi, maka kebijakan pemberian insentif maupun kemudahan dapat dilakukan. oleh karena itu, sifat persyaratan yang longgar harus disandingkan dengan analisis resiko atas tiap pilihan bentuk kebijakannya (tabel 1). sementara itu, kebijakan yang dapat mendorong penanaman modal di daerah selain pemberian insentif adalah pemberian kemutabel 1. matriks analisis kebijakan pemberian insentif aspek resiko fiskal resiko teknis daya terima publik/investor keterangan pengurangan, keringanan, pembebasan pajak daerah terjadi pengurangan pad dalam jangka pendek butuh dokumen perda baru /revisi perda diterima namun bukan kebutuhan pokok pada investasi sektor basis/strategis (share & penyerapan tk) pengurangan, keringanan, pembebasan retribusi daerah terjadi pengurangan pad dalam jangka pendek butuh dokumen perda baru /revisi perda diterima namun bukan kebutuhan pokok pada investasi sektor basis (share & penyerapan tk) pemberian dana stimulant peningkatan pengeluaran/ realokasi anggaran belanja butuh dokumen perda baru /revisi perda diterima pada investasi sektor basis (share & penyerapan tk) pemberian bantuan modal peningkatan pengeluaran/ realokasi anggaran belanja butuh dokumen perda baru /revisi perda diterima realisasi lembaga penjaminan daerah; pada investasi sektor basis (share & penyerapan tk) sumber: hasil olah data primer strategi pengembangan investasi di daerah (ahmad ma’ruf) 49 dahan. analisis kebijakan pemberian kemudahan dapat dicermati dalam tabel 2. perumusan kebijakan strategik pengembangan penanaman modal kebijakan strategis yang akan dilakukan terkait pengembangan penanaman modal melalui pemberian insentif dan kemudahan penanaman modal di daerah sebagaimana diatur dalam pp 45/2008 dapat dipertajam dalam pilihan kebijakan strategis melalui metode swot. berdasarkan hasil dokumen review dan deep interview pada stakeholders, serta hasil masukan dalam fgd, maka rumusan semua aspek dalam analisis swot dapat dimasukan dalam satu matriks (tabel 3). berdasarkan rumusan swot tersebut perlu mengidentifikasi isu-isu strategis yang akan menjadi rujukan dalam perumusan kebijakan strategis dalam rangka pengembangan kegiatan penanaman modal di daerah yang dilakukan uji dengan menggunakan tes litmus. hasil analisis isu-isu strategis tersebut, maka dapat dikasifikasikan menjadi beberapa rumusan kebijakan strategis pemberian insentif dan kemudahan penanaman modal di daerah, yaitu: (1) melakukan pilihan kebijakan kemudahan daripada pemberian insentif karena keterbatasan kapasitas fiskal; (2) menyusun perda sebagai payung hukum dalam kebijakan kemudahan maupun insentif investasi; (3) mengoptimalkan instansi perijinan terpadu untuk pengelolaan kewenangan perijinan investasi melalui penyediaan data &informasi, percepatan perijinan; (4) mengoptimalkan aset daerah dalam memberikan kemudahan penyediaan lahan; (5) mengoptimalkan program rutin instansi untuk update data, bembingan teknis; (6) meningkatkan daya dukung sarana dan prasarana untuk penanaman modal; (7) melakukan pengembangan sistem informasi penamanan modal berbasis teknologi informasi berdasarkan kondisi riil fiskal daerah, baik di tingkat provinsi maupun kabupaten/kota yang ada, secara umum mengalami kenaikan nilai fiskal namun dari sisi belanja lebih besar sehingga cenderung menganut sistem fiskal defisit. implikasi terkait dengan kebijakan mendorong peningkatan investasi di daerah, maka pilihan logis yang cepat dilakukan adalah pola kebijakan berupa memberi kemudahan, baik dari sisi perijinan maupun memfasilitasi kebutuhan lain yang diperlukan investor tanpa harus mengeluarkan alokasi anggaran yang berlebih. tabel 2. matriks analisis kebijakan pemberian kemudahan aspek resiko fiskal resiko teknis daya terima publik/investor keterangan penyediaan data dan informasi peluang penanaman modal minim, bagian kegiatan unit teknis kontinu update data, upgrade teknologi infomasi, diterima, khususnya investor baru data benar/riel terkonfirmasi penyediaan sarana dan prasarana alokasi anggaran: prioritas pengadaan sarana yang mendukung investasi assesment riil kebutuhan sarana yang mendorong investasi diterima penyediaan lahan atau lokasi potensi perubahan pendapatan valuasi nilai best use aset; diterima optimalisasi aset daerah pemberian bantuan teknis alokasi anggaran: kegiatan bantuan teknis staf khusus fasilitasi investasi diterima percepatan pemberian perizinan anggaran rutin support gerai investasi; regulasi baru diterima sumber: hasil olah data primer jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 13, nomor 1, april 2012: 43-52 50 setiap kebijakan daerah, akan lebih efektif apabila ada payung hukum yang kuat. terkait dengan kebijakan memfasilitasi percepatan peningkatan nilai investasi juga memerlukan payung hukum, dalam hal ini dalam bentuk peraturan daerah. terkait dengan proses penyusunan perda, dapat dilakukan atas usulan eksekutif atau dari inisiatif legislatif (dprd). proses yang relatif cepat dan akan mendapatkan daya dukung kuat dari publik, maka mekanisme inisiatif dari dewan untuk mengusulkan perda insentif dan kemudahan penanaman modal menjadi pilihan yang lebih strategis. sementara dari sisi eksekutif dapat membantu dalam menyiapkan naskah akademis, sehingga proses akan sinergis dan efektif. mengoptimalkan instansi perijinan terpadu untuk pengelolaan kewenangan perijinan investasi melalui penyediaan data dan informasi, dan percepatan perijinan. keberadaan kantor pelayanan terpadu yang sudah dimiliki pada tingkat provinsi (gerai p2t) yang mulai berbenah secara progresif, perlu disupport untuk penyediaan sistem informasi yang berbasis teknologi informasi (it) yang handal. dengan pelayanan berbasis it, maka semua proses penyediaan informasi, data, dan pelayanan online akan dapat diwujudkan guna mendukung pelayanan prima. mengoptimalkan aset daerah dalam memberikan kemudahan penyediaan lahan. keberadaan aset pemda, baik yang dikuasai pemda provinsi maupun kabupaten/kota menjadi salah satu alternatif memberikan kemudahan dalam mengembangkan investasi di diy melalui optimalisasi aset dengan berbagai pola kerjasama. meskipun, secara umum yang dibutuhkan oleh investor adalah memberikan fasilitas dalam penyediaan lahan yang mewadahi. pemda dapat melakukan kontrol pada aset tabel 3. matriks swot kebijakan pemberian insentif dan kemudahan penanaman modal di daerah ifas efas strength (s) 1. memilik instansi perijinan terpadu 2. memiliki berbagai aset daerah yang dapat dioptimalkan untuk penanaman modal. 3. memiliki program rutin untuk penyediaan data dan informasi peluang investasi weaknes (w) 1. fiskal daerah (apbd) yang terbatas. 2. belum memiliki perda insentif dan kemudahan penanaman modal. 3. lemahnya sinkronisasi program lintas instansi dalam mendukung penanaman modal 4. implementasi it yang masih terbatas dalam pelayanan perijinan dan promosi investasi. 5. lahan milik pemda yang potensi untuk investasi lokasinya terpisahpisah 6. kapasitas & kompetensi sdm yg terbatas untuk bantuan teknis. opportunity (o) 1. kebijakan pemerintah yang mendelegasikan kewenangan lebih pd pemda dalam perijinan investasi 2. kebijakan pemberian insentif dan kemudahan penanaman modal (pp 45/2008) strategi so 1. mengoptimalkan instansi perijinan terpadu untuk pengelolaan kewenangan perijinan investasi melalui penyediaan data & informasi, percepatan perijinan. 2. mengoptimalkan aset daerah dalam memberikan kemudahan penyediaan lahan 3. mengoptimalkan program rutin instansi untuk update data, bembingan teknis. strategi wo 1. melakukan pilihan kebijakan kemudahan daripada pemberian insentif krn keterbatasan kapasitas fiskal. 2. menyusun perda sebagai payung hukum dalam kebijakan kemudahan maupun insentif investasi treat (t) kebijakan daerah dan negara lain yang “agresif” dalam promosi investasi strategi st meningkatkan daya dukung sarana dan prasarana unt penanaman modal strategi wt melakukan pengembangan sistem informasi berbasis teknologi informasi sumber: data primer, diolah strategi pengembangan investasi di daerah (ahmad ma’ruf) 51 tanah yang bersifat tanah kas desa dan lain lain, namun dari sisi lokasi mayoritas tidak menyatu sehingga luasan yang dibutuhkan para investor tidak terpenuhi. mengoptimalkan program rutin instansi untuk update data, bimbingan teknis. terkait dengan update data dan bimbingan teknis, dalam organisasi pemda sudah menjadi tugas rutin yang terdistribusi sesuai dengan tupoksi masing-masing instansi, seperti bkpm, dinas perindagkop, dan lain-lain. dengan demikian, sebenarnya kebutuhan atas data bagi para investor akan mudah didapatkan karena dari tiap instansi ini memiliki anggaran dan menjadikan pendataan dan bimbingan teknis sebagai tugas rutin. permasalahan yang muncul, data tersebut terkadang tidak mudah diakses publik. hal tersebut akan optimal apabila update data dipublikasikan sebagai salah satu isi (content) dari sistem informasi penanaman modal yang dibangun oleh pemda. meningkatkan daya dukung sarana dan prasarana unt penanaman modal. kebutuhan layanan infrastruktur dasar seperti jalan, air bersih, listrik, maupun infrastruktur pendukung menjadi salah satu daya tarik daerah untuk menarik investor. ketersediaan infrastruktur dasar yang tidak memadahi berimplikasi pada peningkatan biaya operasional yang akan ditanggung oleh pelaku usaha. ketersediaan infrastruktur ini juga sebagai salah satu indikator penilaian daya saing daerah dalam hal pengembangan usaha yang sering dilakukan oleh berbagai lembaga pemeringkat, baik level nasional maupun internasional. implikasi dari indeks daya saing yang rendah menjadikan pencitraan daerah yang tidak menarik bagi investor maupun opini publik. melakukan pengembangan sistem informasi penamanan modal berbasis teknologi informasi. kebutuhan pengembangan sistem informasi yang terintegrasi dan informatif menjadi hal dasar yang sudah menjadi kebutuhan bagi tiap pemda untuk memberikan layanan publik di era digital sekarang ini. melalui teknologi informasi yang handal, pemda akan dengan mudah, cepat, dan informatif menyajikan informasi, komunikasi, maupun proses pelayanan terkait dengan penanaman modal maupun pengembangan usaha. dengan sistem pelayanan online akan relatif menjamin transparansi dan menghindari proses penambahan biaya tidak resmi yang masih dikesankan oleh publik, terlebih pelaku usaha bahwa praktik ekonomi biaya tinggi tersebut masih kental dalam layanan birokrasi meskipun proses reformasi birokrasi sudah yakin dilaksanakan. simpulan berdasarkan uraian analisis tersebut, dapat ditarik beberapa kesimpulan sebagai berikut: (1) dalam rangka menarik investasi baru maupun mendorong peningkatan penanaman modal melalui pemberian insentif maupun kemudahan penanaman modal, maka dari sisi kebijakan strategis lebih dikedepankan pilihan kebijakan memberikan berbagai kemudahan penanaman modal daripada pemberian insentif. (2) beberapa rumusan kebijakan strategis menarik penanaman modal maupun pengembangan penanaman modal di daerah, yaitu: (a) melakukan pilihan kebijakan kemudahan daripada pemberian insentif karena keterbatasan kapasitas fiskal, (b) menyusun perda sebagai payung hukum dalam kebijakan kemudahan maupun insentif investasi, (c) mengoptimalkan instansi perijinan terpadu untuk pengelolaan kewenangan perijinan investasi melalui penyediaan data & informasi, percepatan perijinan, (d) mengoptimalkan aset daerah dalam memberikan kemudahan penyediaan lahan (e) mengoptimalkan program rutin instansi untuk update data, bimbingan teknis (f) meningkatkan daya dukung sarana dan prasarana unt penanaman modal (g) melakukan pengembangan sistem informasi penamanan modal berbasis teknologi informasi implementasi konsep pemberian insentif dan kemudahan penanaman modal di daerah memerlukan tindak lanjut yang dapat diuraikan sebagai rekomendasi sebagai berikut: (1) melakukan komunikasi efektif dengan legislatif untuk mendorong hak inisiatif dewan (dprd) untuk menyusun perda pemberian insentif terjurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 13, nomor 1, april 2012: 43-52 52 batas maupun kemudahan dalam penanaman modal di diy. (2) kebijakan pemberian kemudahan dalam penanaman modal yang dalam jangka pendek langsung bisa dilaksanakan adalah: (a) mengoptimalkan instansi perijinan terpadu untuk pengelolaan kewenangan perijinan investasi melalui penyediaan data dan informasi, percepatan pemberian perijinan. (b) mengoptimalkan program rutin instansi untuk update data, bembingan teknis (c) meningkatkan daya dukung sarana dan prasarana untuk penanaman modal termasuk melakukan pengembangan sistem informasi penamanan modal berbasis teknologi informasi daftar pustaka abdullah piter, et.al. 2002. daya saing daerah. yogyakarta: bpfe. cooper, phillip j., et.al. (co-writers), 1998. public administration for the twenty first century, orlando: harcourt brace college publishers. dong-sung cho dan hwy-chang moon, 2003, from adam smith to michaelporter, evolusi teori daya saing. dye, thomas r., 1972. understanding public policy, new jersey: prentice hall. fauzan, 2006. meningkatkan minat investor. resensi diskusi “strategi inovasi kebijakan dalam meningkatkan investasi di daerah, pada 30 nopember 2006, di aula pusat kajian dan pendidikan dan pelatihan aparatur lan bandung. howlett, michael, & m. ramesh. 1995. studying public policy: policy cycles and policy subsystems. toronto: oxford university press. arsyad, lincoln. 1999. pengantar perencanaan dan pembangunan ekonomi daerah. yogyakarta: bpfe. lynn, laurence, 1987. managing public policy. boston: little, brown. mahmud thoha (penyunting). 2002. globalisasi, krisis ekonomi & kebangkitan ekonomi kerakyatan. pustaka quantum. porter, michael e. 1994. keunggulan bersaing, menciptakan dan mempertahankan kinerja unggul, harvard business review. ripley, randall b., & grace a. franklin. 1986. policy implementation and bureaucracy, chicago: the dorsey press. shafritz, jay m., dan e.w. russell. 1997. introducing public administration, new york: longman jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015, hlm.210-219 microeconomics analysis of health care utilization: evidence from indonesia family life survey andika ridha ayu perdana faculty of economics, universitas islam indonesia ringroad utara condongcatur, depok, sleman, yogyakarta 55283 indonesia. phone: +62 0274 881546. corespondence email: ayuperdana@gmail.com received: october 2014; accepted: september 2015 abstract: there are still many health problems faced by most people in indonesia such as problems of diseases, availability of medicines, health services, provision of health insurance, access to health facilities, problems with traditional healers, problems of malnutrition, and utilization of health service. utilization can be categorized as one of health problems if the people do not utilize health service. this study aims to identify the determinants of utilization of health service in indonesia. data used in this study is from indonesia family life survey (ifls), the third and fourth waves. from the results, it can be concluded that people aged between 15 – 74 years old have positive relation in probability to use health and medical services. people with higher level of education tend to use health service when get sick, but does not affect them to do self-treatment and use public or private health facilities. having insurance is very important and affecting people to utilize health and medical service, it also affects people to choose public health service. distance to hospital, better facilities of health services, and some types of illnesses are also significant. these results can be used as references for government to make policies in order to solve health problems in indonesia. keywords: health services; public health facility; ifls; linear probability model jel classification: i11, i15 abstrak: banyak masalah kesehatan yang dihadapi oleh kebanyakan orang di indonesia seperti masalah penyakit, ketersediaan obat-obatan, pelayanan kesehatan, penyediaan asuransi kesehatan, akses ke fasilitas kesehatan, masalah dengan dukun, masalah kekurangan gizi, dan pemanfaatan kesehatan layanan. pemanfaatan dapat dikategorikan sebagai salah satu masalah kesehatan jika orang tidak memanfaatkan pelayanan kesehatan. studi ini bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi factor-faktor yang berpengaruh terhadap penggunaan fasilitas kesehatan di indonesia. data yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah dari survei kehidupan keluarga indonesia (ifls), gelombang ketiga dan keempat. hasil penelitian yang diperoleh memberikan kesimpulan bahwa orang berusia antara 15 74 tahun memiliki hubungan positif dalam probabilitas untuk menggunakan kesehatan dan pelayanan medis. orang-orang dengan tingkat pendidikan yang lebih tinggi cenderung menggunakan pelayanan kesehatan ketika sakit, tetapi tidak mempengaruhi mereka untuk melakukan pengobatan sendiri dan menggunakan fasilitas kesehatan publik atau swasta. memiliki asuransi sangat penting dan mempengaruhi orang untuk memanfaatkan kesehatan dan pelayanan medis, juga mempengaruhi orang untuk memilih pelayanan kesehatan masyarakat. jarak ke rumah sakit, fasilitas yang lebih baik dari pelayanan kesehatan, dan beberapa jenis penyakit juga signifikan. hasil ini dapat digunakan sebagai referensi bagi pemerintah untuk membuat kebijakan dalam rangka memecahkan masalah kesehatan di indonesia. kata kunci:; layanan kesehatan;puskesmas; ifls; linear probability model klasifikasi jel: i11, i15 microeconomics analysis of health care ... (andika ridha ayu perdana) 211 introduction health becomes a critical problem in some countries particularly in developing countries including indonesia. economic growth and wellbeing of population need a good health (mwabu, 2008). according to ritonga (2007), health is one of factors underlying people capability which becomes a basic dimension that must be owned by everyone. health status of population can be assessed based on rate of life expectancy, infant mortality, and children under-five mortality. indonesia experienced increasing in health status signed by the increasing in life expectancy rate (from 1999 to 2005, increased from 66.2 percent to 68.1 percent) and decreasing in infant (from 1990 to 1999, decreased from 71 to 46 points) and children under-five mortality rate (at the same range of years, decreased from 99 to 59.55 points)1. nevertheless, there are still many problems related to health that would be obstacles for the development if not be immediately tackled. health issues in indonesia are very complex, ranged from problems of diseases (chronically and acute as well as communicable and non-communicable ones), availability of medicine, health services, provision of health insurance, access to health facilities, problems with traditional treatment, until the problems of malnutrition and the kinds of. utilization of health facility can be considered as one of the issues when people facing difficulties in accessing health facilities. in some areas in indonesia, especially in poor areas, people still find the difficulties. triratnawati (2006) states that most of indonesia health care centers are underutilized for example in purworejo, central java. ariani2 also finds underutilization of health service and high infant mortality rate in some areas in eastern indonesia. she finds people in eastern indonesia prefer to use self-medication than go to health facility because of lack 1 statistics indonesia, population reports (visited august, 20 2009) 2 potret ketertinggalan sumber daya manusia di kawasan timur indonesia (http://bto.depnakertrans.go.id/download/jurnal/potr et%20ketertinggalan%20sumber%20daya%20m anusia.doc) visited september , 19 2009. of access and limited number of health facilities available. however, this does not predominantly occur in indonesia. much of population in south asia lacks of access even to the most basic health care, it can be seen from the high rate of maternal and children death each year, and it becomes a problem. (janjua et al, 2006). amelioration of individuals’ health behaviors (increase in utilize health service) can raise their health outcomes. gakunju (2003) states that as the health facility utilization increased, the indicators of health status such as infant mortality rate and life expectancy are improved as well. tilden et.al. (2006) have analyzed health status and health care utilization pattern in indonesia between 2000 and 2004. he finds utilization and inpatient care increased, and outpatient care is greater than no treatment. he also finds better improvements in three parameters of health status (infant and children under-five mortality rate and also life expectancy) at the same time. from the analysis found by tilden et al (2006), it can be concluded that raise in health care utilization can improve people’s health status. other study found by strauss and thomas (2007) who analyzes population health and economic development. they assume that there is a static health production function for an individual where health outcomes depend on individual’s health inputs and behaviors. one of conclusions from the analysis is improvement in health inputs and behaviors are influential toward health outcomes and health development. geda and shimeles (2009) also find that access to basic health service plays a very important role in affecting health outcomes. they find improvement in health outcomes are in conformity with increase in seeking health care in ethiopia. there are also several previous studies related to utilization of health service presented in table 1. from some findings above, it is very important to improve the access to health facility especially for the poor. lower socioeconomics group usually have a higher burden of disease and need more treatment from health service (mendoza et al, 2003). in addition, they usually reside in location where the access to health facilities is low. the problem is sometime worsened by bad health policies that were often jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015: 210-219212 manifested in form of mistargeted health program. susanto et al (2006) find that in provision of health service provided by the state, people with higher economic status have a better access for the health service than people with lower economic status. from the results of evaluation program of basic health care for the poor community, utilization of basic health care facilities is too low, under the national digit 15%. other supports that the poor especially in developing countries are less to receive effective health care (o’donnell 2007: 2820). therefore, the problem of utilization is usually faced by poor people. according to susanto (2006), the low of health care utilization can be affected by some factors such as (1) the descent of purchasing power parity, (2) the descent of the interest to go to the health sub center, and (3) access to the health care is difficult. table 1. previous studies related to utilization of health care no. researcher data and method conclusion 1. hjortsberg (zambia) data: zambian living conditions monitoring survey (lcms) 1998. sample: 9871 individuals. method: multinomial logit types of illness, log of income, education of household head, education, being child, distance to health facility, having motorcycle, and living in rural area are statistically significant affecting people to use health service. 2. janjua, et al. (pakistan) data: a population study during july – september 2001 (urban=.575, rural=575). sample: 1150 individuals. method: multivariable logistic residential area, educational status, ethnicity, monthly household income, and types of treatment are statistically significant with utilize private health service. 3. mwabu, et al. (kenya) data: meru district between january 1980 and april 1981. sample: 315 household with 1721 individuals. method: maximum likelihood estimation distance and health care fees (user fees) reduce the demand for health service but not statistically significant. gender and types of facility are not statistically significant. 4. mendoza-sassi, et al (brazil) data: direct observation to household/individual in brazil. sample: 1348 individuals method: poisson regression income and years of schooling are statistically significant increased utilization. health insurance and having stressful life increased the probability of visiting health service. almost all of demographic characteristics are statistically significant. 5. murteira and lourenco (portugal) data: portuguese national health survey of 1998/99. sample: 27.044 observation method: poisson regression age, income, married, and education are significant affecting the demand for health service. while living un rural area and being female are not statistically significant. 6. barlin adam (2008) (indonesia: kolaka southeast sulawesi) data: interview and deeply exploration about visitor (who use health facilities). sample: all of household in sukubajo method: univariat, bivariat, and multivariate analysis. age, gender, and income are not related with utilization of health service in sukubajo. access variables have negative correlation with utilization. facility characteristics have strong correlation with utilization, and belief is not related with utilization of health service. 7. wasis budiarto (indonesia: mojokerto) data & sample: 300 respondents (15 years old and over), from urban areas (kec. bangsal) and rural areas (kec. puri). method: linear regression distance is statistically significant affecting demand for health service. health need and income are jointly significant. increase in cost of puskesmas in rural increased the demand, while in urban area is not. microeconomics analysis of health care ... (andika ridha ayu perdana) 213 health should be prioritized in national development in order to achieve welfare of society. health development is a form of change in health sector where people’s health conditions have increased, there is improvement in healthy lifestyle, society has a healthy environment, and people trust to medical care facility to treat them. according to juanita (2000), health development is a process of change in the level of people’s health from poor levels to the better in accordance with health standards. despite the concept of health development is to promote national development, in reality health development is not in the mainstream of national development. this is the cause of many health problems in indonesia. post-decentralization in 2001, health system in indonesia is little changed. changes may occur due to a previous transfer of authority by the central government to be a responsibility of local government. according to indonesian health profile by world health organization, decentralization gives impact on health system such as health financing, health information system, human resources for health, and the existence of health facilities in indonesia. with these changes, the possibility of health problems occurred may be greater. for example, as reported by world health organization, decentralization is one of factors that cause mal distribution, low productivity and poor quality of health workers. in addition, the health information system will also be affected because of the partial breakdown. this far, it can be concluded that health development in indonesia is still not good enough even though the purpose of decentralization is to improve national development. the government has tried to improve health conditions of the society through variety of ways. one of the ways is providing health insurance especially for poor people where the government can help them overcome the problem of medical costs. however, the implementation is sometimes not necessarily according to plan. in solving various health problems in indonesia, the government has directed health development to be better. after health sector reform in 1998, the government has formulated the vision, mission, and strategy of health development in the next ten years known as “indonesia sehat 2010”. ministry of health stated that the vision, mission, and strategy of indonesian society are formed to achieve a certain health level such as living in a healthy environment, practice the behavior of clean and healthy, able to utilize health, achieving high rate of health. these four things are the main objectives on making vision, mission and development strategy, and the process of achieving these goals are still going on until now. the third objective is related to this study which looks at how people utilize health service and what factors influence people to utilize or not utilize health service. therefore, analyzing health service utilization in indonesia is very interesting. the analysis will give the real situation of people’s behavior when ill and give information related to factors that influence people to use health facility or not. the results of this analysis can be used as references in making policy in order to solve health problems in indonesia. research method this study uses a simple model to establish relationship among interest variables (onhjortsberg, 2003: 759). it can be simplified with the following model modified from hjortsberg (2003): c = f (d,t,f,i) 1) where: c: individual choice when get sick (utilize, choice, factype; d: vector indicates demographic characteristics; t: vector indicates distance (time) to health facility from head office; f: vector indicates facility characteristics; i: vector indicates types of illness it explains that demographic characteristics, time to health facility, facility characteristics, and types of illness are factors supposedly affecting people’s choice when get sick. data used in this study are from indonesia family life survey (ifls) or usually called sakerti. ifls is a longitudinal socioeconomic and health survey based on sample representing about 83% of indonesian population contains over 30.000 individuals (strauss, 2004). there are four waves of ifls data. first wave was conducted jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015: 210-219214 in 1993, the second wave in 1997, the third wave in 2000, and the fourth wave in 2007. there is a follow up survey (ifls2+) was conducted in 1998 to measure the impact of crisis happened in indonesia. this study is using the third and fourth waves of the data. reasons of using this data are firstly, the information related to what to be studied is available in this data. secondly, ifls is the most complete family data survey in indonesia. ifls give information about the life of the respondents, households, families, and communities where the respondents live. there are two main data in ifls. the first is household data and the second is community facility data. we use both of those data. stata 9.1 used as a data processing tool. it provides an appropriate longitudinal data analysis and regression. for ifls data, employing stata is recommended. stata is powerful econometric and statistical software (stock and watson, 2003). according to tawi (2008), stata can analyze data survey which the sample is not usually gained by simple random sampling. this study uses linear probability model (lpm) as tool of analysis. lpm is one of econometrics model for analyzing probability. this model assumes that the probability is linear to the explanatory variables and explains two dichotomous choices situation (yes or not). fixed effect and non-fixed effect are used as regression method. there are some considerations to choose whether will use fixed effect or nonfixed effect. if there is an assumption that ui and x are uncorrelated, non-fixed effect may be appropriate, however if ui and x are correlated, fixed effect is more appropriate. this study is using stepwise on regression where firstly regress only the demographic characteristics, then regress demographic characteristics plus distance to health service, the third plus facility characteristic, and the last plus types of illness. these regression methods appropriate with the model formed below. there are four models of analysis formed in this study. each model will be explained as follows: model1 = demographic characteristics yi = β1 + β2adult* + β3fml + β4fmlhh + β5educ + β6lnpce1 + β7lnpce2 + β8rural + β9h_vec + b10ins_ask + ui 2) model2 = demographic characteristics + distance to health service yi = β1 + β2adult* + β3fml + β4fmlhh + β5educ + β6lnpce1 + β7lnpce2 + β8 rural + β9h_vec + β10ins_ask + β11d* + ui 3) model3 = demographic characteristics + distance to health service + facility characteristics yi = β1 + β2adult* + β3fml + β4fmlhh + β5educ + β6lnpce1 + β7lnpce2 + β8 rural + β9h_vec + β10ins_ask + β11d* + β12pp* + β13pusk* + β14vilmdwf + ui 4) model4 = demographic characteristics + distance to health service + facility characteristics + types of illness. yi = β1 + β2adult* + β3fml + β4fmlhh + β5educ + β6lnpce1 + β7lnpce2 + β8 rural + β9h_vec + β10ins_ask + β11d* + β12pp* + β13pusk* + β14vilmdwf + β15ill* + ui 5) where: adult*= being adult age 15 until more than 75 (spline of adult); fmlhh= female as the head of household; educ= years of education; lnpce= log of per capita expenditure; rural= living in rural area; h_vec= having vehicle; ins_ask= having askes; d*= distance to hospital, private practice, puskesmas, and traditional healer; pp*= characteristics of private practice; pusk*= characteristics of puskesmas; ill*= types of illness. result and discussion table 1 shows descriptive statistics only for the demographic characteristics. from the table, among adult aged between 15 and 100 years microeconomics analysis of health care ... (andika ridha ayu perdana) 215 old, the average of age is 35.6 years old, 51.9% are female, 16.6% reported that the gender of head of household is female, years of individuals education is approximately 7.86 years or equivalent to junior high school, 47.2% are reported living in rural area, only 13% have their own vehicles, and only 4% have health insurance (askes). log of per capita expenditure for poor category is 11.82 and for non-poor category is 0.819 on average. in the basic specification of the first model in table 2 below, some variables, being aged 15 – 24 and 45 – 74 years old, being female, years of education, log of per capita expenditure for poor and non-poor, living in rural area, owning vehicle, and having insurance (askes) turn out to be positive covariates with the probability of utilize health service. only female as household head turns out to be negative covariate. being aged 15–24 is statistically significant and increases the probability to use health service by one percentage point. being aged 45 – 74 and increase in years of education also significantly increase the probability of using health service by less than one percentage point. being female increases the probability to use health service by 9.7 percentage points. log of per capita expenditure for poor increases the probability by 4.5 percentage points, while for non-poor increases the probability by 2.8 percentage points. living in rural area, having vehicle, and having insurance will increase the probability of using health service by 2.4, 1.7, and 7.4 percentage points. model 2, 3, and 4 have the same results with model 1 except living in rural area which is not statistically significant. f statistics show that demographic characteristics in all models are jointly significant. distances to health service in all models are not jointly significant. facility characteristics are jointly significant, and types of illness are also jointly significant affecting the probability of utilize health service. values of robust standard errors are reported in parentheses. the regression also includes years of observation. distance to health service measured by time from head office to health services include distance to hospital, distance to public health centre, distance to private practice, and distance to traditional practice. facility characteristics include availability of electricity, source of water and electricity, availability of service completeness, and existence of private practices and public health services at community level. types of illness show the morbidity condition include headache, stomach ache, runny nose, fever, and toothache. table 2. descriptive statistics variables mean std. dev dependent variables seeking health service (yes=1) 0.202 0.402 medical treatment (1) self-medication (0) 0.484 0.500 go to public health facility (1) private health facility (0) 0.378 0.485 explanatory variables demographic characteristics spline: adult1 (15-24) 23.524 2.797 adult2(25-44) 8.683 8.252 adult3(45-54) 1.863 3.662 adult4(55-75) 1.413 4.316 adult5(75+) 0.140 1.226 gender of person (female=1) 0.519 0.500 gender of household head (female=1) 0.166 0.373 years of education 7.858 4.507 log of per capita expenditure for poor 11.816 0.315 log of per capita expenditure for non-poor 0.819 0.659 live in rural area (yes=1) 0.472 0.499 have vehicles (yes=1) 0.139 0.346 have askes (yes=1) 0.044 0.206 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015: 210-219216 the first model from table 4 below reports that being adult 15–24 years and 55–74 years old are statistically significant and increase the probability of using medical treatment positively by approximately one percentage point. while being aged 25–44 years old are negatively correlated, yet statistically significant. female are positively significant and increase the probability of using medical treatment by 13.8 percentage point. female as household head is significantly decreasing the probability of using medical treatment by 6 percentage points. increase in per capita expenditure for non-poor is positively significant and increase the probability of using medical treatment by 3.6 percentage points. having vehicle decreases the probability of using medical treatment by 2.2 percentage points. while having insurance (askes) will increase the probability by 8.7 percentage points. all of demographic characteristics variables above presented in the first model are jointly significant increase the probability of using medical service. model 2, 3, and 4 generally have the same pattern with the first model. however, being aged 15 – 24 and 55 – 74 are not statistically significant. having vehicle is not statistically significant as well. in the second model, all of demographic characteristics variable are jointly significant, while all of distance variable are not jointly significant. in model 3, facility characteristics are jointly significant, demographic characteristics are jointly significant, while distance to health facility are not jointly significant. in the last model, types of illness variables added are jointly significant. below is the regression result of probability of using public health service with fixed effect. from the table, there are only six variables are statistically significant in the first model. being aged 15 – 44 is significant decreasing the probability of using public health service by one percentage point. however, being aged 25 – 44 is significant increasing the probability of using public health service by less than one percentage point. increase in log of per capita expenditure for non-poor decreases the probability of using public health service by 9.3 percentage points. having insurance (askes) will increase the probability to use public health service by 2.2 percentage points. being female, aged between 45 – 54 and more than 75, years of education, being female as household head, log of per capita expenditure for poor, living in rural area, and having vehicle are not statistically significant. in model 2, 3, and 4 being adult (aged more than 15 years old) are not statistically significant. in these models, only two variables are statistically significant, log of per capita expenditure for non-poor and having insurance (askes). this log of per capita expenditure in model 2, 3, and 4 have the same negative coefficient thus will decrease the probability to use public health service by 8.9 percentage points. while having askes increases the probability by approximately almost 2 percentage points. f statistics show that demographic characteristics are jointly significant in all models. distance to health facilities is not jointly significant in all models. facility characteristics in all models are jointly significant and the types of illness also jointly significant in all models. conclusion there are three possibilities for people to choose what they prefer to do when they are under certain conditions, which are utilize heath care, use self-medication, and do nothing. utilization can be one of health problems if there is a condition that the sick do not utilize health service. it is gaining a big question, why do the sick not utilize health service? this question is underlying this study to analyze what factors actually affect people’s choice to utilize or not utilize health service. the results pointed out that people aged between 15 – 74 years old are reported have positive relation in probability to seek health service and use medical service. gender and level of education is also important variable in affecting people to utilize health care. monthly of per capita expenditure for poor people is positively significant in probability to choose health service. while monthly of per capita expenditure for non-poor is important and affect people to utilize health service and use medical treatment. people who live in rural area and people who have askes have positive relation and significantly increase the probability. surprisingly, it microeconomics analysis of health care ... (andika ridha ayu perdana) 217 also affects people to choose public health service. other variables such as distance to health service, completeness of health facility, and type of diseases are possible in affecting people to utilize health care. health indirectly reduces people’s expenses for medical treatment later. government must be able to provide appropriate health facilities in order to make people easier to get health service. more health insurance schemes are needed to enhance access to health service since askes is positive and significant. references budiarto, wasis. (1996). analisis permintaan (demand analysis) pelayanan kesehatan puskesmas di kabupaten mojokerto. buletin penelitian kesehatan (24). ministry of health, republic of indonesia gakunju, e. m. (2003). determinants of health status in kenya. research paper. mekerere university institute of economics. geda, alemayehu and shimeles, abebe. 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(2006) under-utilization of community health centers in purworejo regency, central java. makara kesehatan. vol. 10 no.1 p:1-6. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015: 210-219218 appendix table 4. choice of using medical or self treatment, linear probability model with fixed effect explanatory variables model1 model2 model3 model4 demographic characteristics (d) spline of adult: adult1(15-24) 0.018*** 0.008 0.007 0.007 (0.002) (0.003) (0.003) (0.003) adult2(25-44) -0.010*** -0.005*** -0.005*** -0.004*** (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) adult3(45-54) 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.002 (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) adult4(55-74) 0.007*** 0.006 0.006 0.006 (0.001) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) adult5(75+) 0.005 0.006 0.006 0.004 (0.005) (0.006) (0.006) (0.006) gender of person (female=1) 0.138*** 0.108*** 0.108*** 0.111*** (0.009) (0.011) (0.011) (0.011) gender of household head (female=1) -0.060*** -0.038** -0.039*** -0.040*** (0.013) (0.015) (0.015) (0.015) years of education 0.007 0.007 0.007 0.007 (0.001) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) spline: log of per capita expenditure (1) 11. 783 0.015 0.016 0.013 0.015 (0.028) (0.031) (0.031) (0.030) log of per capita expenditure (2) 4.884 0.036*** 0.028*** 0.027*** 0.028*** (0.008) (0.010) (0.010) (0.010) live in rural area (yes=1) 0.019 0.010 0.025 0.023 (0.018) (0.042) (0.043) (0.042) have vehicle (yes=1) -0.022** -0.002 -0.003 -0.002 (0.011) (0.013) (0.013) (0.013) have askes (yes=1) 0.087*** 0.086*** 0.086*** 0.087*** (0.017) (0.022) (0.022) (0.022) plus distance to health service (t) no yes yes yes plus facility characteristics (f) no no yes yes plus types of illness (i) no no no yes f test: 1. demographic characteristic 87.75*** 15.77*** 15.47*** 15.68*** (p-value) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) 2. distance to health service 1.52 1.40 1.22 (0.19) ( 0.232) (0.302) 3. facility characteristic 1.94** 1.93** (0.019) (0.019) 4. types of illness 15.08*** (0.000) r-squared 0.149 0.146 0.148 0.158 number of observation 12249 8566 8566 8566 significant at 10%; ** significant at 5%; *** significant at 1%. values of robust standard errors are reported in parentheses. the regression also includes years of observation. distance to health service measured by time from head office to health services include distance to hospital, distance to public health centre, distance to private practice, and distance to traditional practice. facility characteristics include availability of electricity, source of water and electricity, availability of service completeness, and existence of private practices and public health services at community level. types of illness show the morbidity condition include headache, stomach ache, runny nose, fever, and toothache. microeconomics analysis of health care ... (andika ridha ayu perdana) 219 table 5. choice of using public or private facility, linear probability model with fixed effect explanatory variables model1 model2 model3 model4 demographic characteristics (d) spline of adult: adult1(15-24) -0.010*** -0.006 -0.006 -0.006 (0.003) (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) adult2(25-44) 0.002** 0.001 0.001 0.001 (0.001) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) adult3(45-54) -0.002 -0.002 -0.001 -0.001 (0.003) (0.003) (0.003) (0.003) adult4(55-74) -0.004* -0.004 -0.004 -0.004 (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) adult5(75+) -0.002 0.002 0.002 0.003 (0.005) (0.006) (0.006) (0.006) gender of person (female=1) 0.009 0.005 0.005 0.006 (0.012) (0.015) (0.015) (0.015) gender of household head (female=1) -0.023 -0.010 -0.012 -0.012 (0.016) (0.020) (0.020) (0.020) years of education -0.011 -0.010 -0.010 -0.010 (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) spline: log of per capita expenditure (1) 11. 783 -0.033 -0.022 -0.021 -0.022 (0.040) (0.046) (0.045) (0.046) log of per capita expenditure (2) 4.884 -0.093*** -0.089*** -0.090*** -0.090*** (0.010) (0.013) (0.013) (0.013) live in rural area (yes=1) -0.022 -0.008 -0.019 -0.016 (0.022) (0.052) (0.053) (0.053) have vehicle (yes=1) 0.001 0.004 0.001 0.001 ( 0.015) (0.017) (0.018) (0.018) have askes (yes=1) 0.190*** 0.192*** 0.193*** 0.192*** (0.020) (0.025) (0.025) (0.025) plus distance to health service (t) no yes yes yes plus facility characteristics (f) no no yes yes plus types of illness (i) no no no yes f test: 1. demographic characteristic 20.58*** 10.77*** 10.75*** 10.66*** (p-value) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) 0.000 2. distance to health service 0.69 0.88 0.90 (0.598) (0.474) (0.464) 3. facility characteristic 1.98** 1.98** (0.016) (0.016) 4. types of illness 6.40*** (0.000) r-squared 0.111 0.190 0.195 0.201 number of observation 7485 4766 4766 4766 note: * significant at 10%; ** significant at 5%; *** significant at 1%. values of robust standard errors are reported in parentheses. the regression also includes years of observation. distance to health service measured by time from head office to health services include distance to hospital, distance to public health centre, distance to private practice, and distance to traditional practice. facility characteristics include availability of electricity, source of water and electricity, availability of service completeness, and existence of private practices and public health services at community level. types of illness show the morbidity condition include headache, stomach ache, runny nose, fever, and toothache jesp | jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan article type: research paper the effect of educational attainment and work experiences on earnings in indonesian manufacturing sectors khalifany ash shidiqi1,2* and anggun pasiya2 abstract: this study examines the impact of educational attainment and work experiences on earnings of workers from the manufacturing sector in indonesia. for the last seven years, this sector contributes the most gdp share (approximately more than 20%) compared to other largest sectors namely agriculture, forestry, and fishery as well as wholesale and retail trades. interestingly, manufacturing sector has the lowest number of workers compared to other mentioned sectors. based on this comparison, manufacturing sector is likely requires workers who have a good educational background and work experiences. moreover, workers in manufacturing sector have higher earnings compare to the other two sectors for almost all educational attainments and its rate is increasing along with the incremental of the level of education. the study estimates are based on the mincerian wage equation with a large cross-section data of indonesian family life survey (ifls) wave 5. the results show that educational attainment and work experiences are significantly and positively correlated with the earnings in both urban and rural area. keywords: indonesian manufacturing sectors; educational attainment; work experiences; indonesian family life survey. jel classification: i21; i26. introduction economists have developed the concept of development economics based on the production capacity of manpower, which was then known as an investment in human capital (schultz, 1961). this concept assumes that human beings are a form of capital, which is reflected in the form of knowledge, idea, creativity, skills, and work productivity. mankiw (2015) argued that education is an investment in human capital-the accumulation of investment in people such as education and on-the-job training. in particular, when people have higher educational attainment, they will have a better quality in productivity (khattak & khan, 2012). while there is an expansion in productivity, the economic growth will be increased as well, which then improve the economy in general and the welfare of the nation affiliation: 1 universitat de barcelona, spain. 2 universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta, yogyakarta, indonesia. *correspondence: khalifany.ash@umy.ac.id this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.20.2.5021 citation: shidiqi, k. a., & pasiya, a. (2019). the effect of educational attainment and work experiences on earnings in indonesian manufacturing sectors. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 20(2), 151-162. article history received: 1 august 2019 accepted: 22 october 2019 mailto:khalifany.ash@umy.ac.id http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/6787 shidiqi & pasiya the effect of educational attainment and work experiences… jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 152 (see, for example, hanushek & woessmann, 2010; barro, 2013; reza & widodo, 2013; martiz & fourie, 2015 among many others). since education has an important role in economic development in creating qualified human capital, therefore, investment in human capital (education) is paramount. it is obvious that the investment in education cannot be done without any funding from the government. the government in many countries have emphasized that a high level of formal education is beneficial to the individual, society, and most importantly to the country itself. as it shown in figure 1, there are more than 10% of governments’ spending is allocated for education and it has been increasing for the last 10 years. a similar trend is also happening in low, middle, and high-income countries. figure 1 government expenditure on education (percent) source: world bank (2018) interestingly, the indonesian government put their concern on education excellently. as it shown in figure 1, the expenditure on education has been increasing significantly and it was reported at around 20.5% in 2015, which is slightly greater than that stipulated in the 1945 constitution of the republic of indonesia, article 31, paragraph 4. it is also compulsory for all indonesian citizen to attain for at least 12 years of education. moreover, there also exist an educational assistance fund through a joint program among ministries which is called program indonesia pintar (pip). this program begins in 2015 and aims to support pupils from poor families to be able to continue their education up to secondary school. in this case, the government, through pip, seeks to prevent students from being a drop out of school because of financial problem. based on this phenomenon, it appears that indonesian government have a strong commitment in investing human capital through education. logically, it is obvious that by having higher educational attainment, people will hope for better future income. this statement has been proven scientifically that both education and earnings are positively correlated. this finding was pioneered by mincer (1974). he clarified about the effect of educational attainment and work experience on earnings in which it is known as mincer earnings model or mincer equation. it has turned into a standard econometric model for income differences among people related with level of education and work experience. with the assumption that education and work experience are investment opportunity, mincer (1974) acquired a straightforward and tractable econometric model in the form of a log-linear function. 5 10 15 20 25 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 p e rc e n t year world low income middle income high income indonesia shidiqi & pasiya the effect of educational attainment and work experiences… jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 153 in its development, there are many works that focus heavily on the econometric issue of mincerian model (see, for example, card, 1995, 1999, 2001; rosenzweig, 1995; duflo, 2001; heckman, lochner, & todd, 2006; lemieux, 2006; oreopoulos, 2006 among many others). for instance, card (1995, 1999) focused on the issues about identifying the relationship between schooling and earnings. heckman et al. (2006) concentrated on empirical support using past and current data and on how to integrate future earnings uncertainty. lemieux (2006) described the mechanism of current data that can be fit into the most common version of the mincerian model. those studies explain comprehensively on the fundamental model and economic rationale behind the mincer equation, as well as its robustness and its importance to policy implementations. recent literatures about schooling rates of return have been measured for literally dozens of countries and for so many years. for instance, kumbhakar (1996) showed that education rises actual productivity and its enhancement increased farmers’ wages. moreover, psacharopoulos and patrinos (2004) conducted a big survey which contains rate of return that utilizes for over 98 countries (including both developed and developing countries). they found that the rates of return to education tend to be higher in the developing countries than in developed countries. interestingly, women tend to have a higher rate of return than men. the survey was also conducted by gabriel and schmitz (2005) by using data from the 2003 current population survey in the u.s. labor market. they confirmed that additional year of schooling has a positive impact on the weekly earnings of men and women. in asia continent, the empirical analysis of mincerian model in asia continent, can be started by johnson and chow (1997). they used 1988 chinese household data and observed both for urban and rural area. although they found that education and experiences positively affect income, but the rates of return to schooling is relatively low. in 21st century, wannakrairoj (2013) estimated using the mincerian model with a large cross-section data survey of thai individuals. wannakrairoj (2013) found that education and experience are positively correlated with the wages of labor in both urban and rural labor markets. alsulami (2018) assessed saudi individuals for both males or females who might be of the same age and work in the same field can gain different amounts of monthly salary due to different level of education. alsulami (2018) found that the most two variables that significantly affect the saudi salaries for both males and females are education qualification and the sector either public or private. in indonesia, the existing studies that utilized mincerian model (for example, taufiqurahman, 2013 and santoso, 2017), were using indonesian micro data such as labor force situation data (sakernas) and indonesian family life survey. for instance, taufiqurahman (2013) analyzed the impact of educational attainment, work experiences, on earnings by utilizing the mincerian regression model. this research did not focus on specific sector (i.e. agriculture, trade, or manufacturing) so that we believe taufiqurahman (2013) was utilizing from all sectors in indonesia. this research found that both educational attainment and work experiences significantly and positively affect individual income. shidiqi & pasiya the effect of educational attainment and work experiences… jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 154 the more specific sector regarding mincerian model analysis can be found in santoso (2017). this study estimated the impact of education levels, gender, ages, working hours, worker status and work experiences on workers’ income in the trade sector in indonesia. he concluded that all the independent variables are significantly and positively affect the level of income. based on the literature reviews described above, this paper evaluates the effect of educational attainment and work experiences on earnings in the indonesian manufacturing sector by using data from the indonesian family life survey (ifls) wave five. the ifls provides rich data on individual’s educational attainment, work experiences, monthly wage, and personal characteristics such as age, gender, health status, and marital status. by employing monthly wage as dependent variable and the two main independent variables such as educational attainment and work experiences, the analysis adopts mincerian earnings model. the second part of this study briefly discusses the main literature used in this research. the part after that discusses the variables explanation, the data set, the estimation approach, and the regression result for indonesia. in addition, the empirical analysis will be divided into three categories such as, estimation for all samples, for those who live in the urban area only and for those who live in the rural area only. the last part concludes. the reason we analyze for the manufacturing sector is because first, we have not found any studies that specifically discuss about this sector in indonesia. second, there exists interesting phenomenon in indonesia as it shown in figure 2 and 3. the former figure shows that manufacturing sector has the lowest number of workers compared to agriculture, forestry and fishery as well as wholesale and retail trades, repair of motor vehicles, and motorcycles from 2010 to 2017. however, the latter figure declares that manufacturing sector contributes most to indonesia’s annual gdp growth (statistics indonesia, 2018). this sector has been contributing for more than 20% for the last seven years. based on this comparison, this sector is likely requires workers who have a good educational background and work experiences as the main variables. moreover, we also believe that those variables are matter for the earnings of the workers. as it shown in figure 4, workers in manufacturing sector have higher earnings compare to the other two sectors for almost all educational attainments and its rate is increasing along with the incremental of the level of education. figure 2 number of workers in indonesian top three sectors source: statistics indonesia, 2018 20.000 40.000 60.000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 m il li o n s years manufacturing agriculture, forestry and fishery wholesale and retail trades, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles shidiqi & pasiya the effect of educational attainment and work experiences… jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 155 figure 3 contribution from top three sectors to indonesia’s gdp growth source: statistics indonesia, 2018 figure 4 average of net wage/salary per month of employee by educational attainment and main occupation in top three sectors (2017) source: statistics indonesia, 2018 research method figure 5 scheme of analysis for the empirical analysis, this study uses cross-sectional data from the indonesian family life survey (ifls) wave 5 which was sampled by rand and available online in the following direction: https://www.rand.org/labor/fls/ifls.html. the dataset includes 30,000 0 10 20 30 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 % years manufacturing agriculture, forestry and fishery wholesale and retail trades, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles . . 2 . 4 . 6 . 8 m il li o n r u p ia h manufacturing agriculture, forestry and fishery wholesale and retail trades, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles data collection & preanalyzed: • indonesian family life survey wave 5 classical assumption test: • normality test • multicolinearity • homoscedasticity cross-sectional statistical descriptive & regression: • urban and rural area • urban area • rural area https://www.rand.org/labor/fls/ifls.html shidiqi & pasiya the effect of educational attainment and work experiences… jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 156 individuals living in 13 of 27 provinces in indonesia. it covers information on self-reported monthly income, educational attainment, work experiences, and personal characteristics such as gender, age, and marital status. however, after we pre-analyzed the data that specifically for the manufacturing sector, we were able to use 1.580 observations. considering the literature and availability of data, we employ a similar setup that was used by johnson and chow (1997) and wannakrairoj (2013) for the model with urban and rural area and also santoso (2017) for the use of specific economic sector as follows: 𝑀𝑜𝑛𝑡ℎ𝑙𝑦 𝐸𝑎𝑟𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑠 = 𝑓(educational attainment, work experiences, social variables) (1) transforming into the econometric model used for estimating the effect of educational attainment and work experiences on earnings: log𝑌𝑖𝑡 = 𝛽0 + 𝛽1educ𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽2exp𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽3gender𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽4marital𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽5age𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽6age𝑖𝑡 2 + 𝜀𝑖𝑝 (2) where log𝑌 is the logarithm form of monthly earnings, 𝛽0 is intercept term, 𝑖 and 𝑡 subscripts represent the individual (𝑖 ∈ 𝑁) and region (𝑡 ∈ 𝑇) respectively, 𝛽1 to 𝛽6 are the coefficient for the independent variables and 𝜀𝑖𝑝 stands for error term. specifically, the description of the variables are as follows: table 1 description of the variables used variable name description earnings the monthly earnings of the individual between idr 500,000 to idr 40,000,000 educational attainment a categorical variable that takes the following values: 1 (not completed primary school), 2 (primary education), 3 (junior high school), 4 (senior high school), 5 (bachelor), and 6 (postgraduate) work experience it is the total of work experience since the first time of working in the manufacturing sector. it is expressed in units of years. gender dummy variable: 1 = male, 0 = female marital status dummy variable: 1 (married), 0 = otherwise age age of the individual in years between 15 to 65 years old result and discussion there are two estimation steps. first, we provide a descriptive analysis. second, we estimate the equation above including control variables that also affect earnings according to the previous studies, along with the main variable such as educational attainment and work experiences. in particular, we present three similar models such as; model 1, includes all individuals that live in the urban and rural area, while model 2 and 3 only individuals that live in the urban and rural area only. we also did the classical assumption test, which provided in the appendix. shidiqi & pasiya the effect of educational attainment and work experiences… jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 157 table 2 earnings and education, ifls-5 earnings education obs mean std. dev. min max not complete primary school 117 1,430,214 1,178,743 500,000 9,000,000 primary education 0 0 0 0 0 junior high 942 1,839,894 1,373,173 500,000 21,000,000 senior high 395 2,413,542 1,566,684 500,000 13,500,000 bachelor 127 3,600,512 2,670,721 500,000 15,000,000 postgraduate 7 7,942,429 6,917,162 2,900,000 23,000,000 anova f test for equal means = 29.57 (0.00) *** *** the null hypothesis can be rejected at the 1% significance level table 2 shows the higher response of earnings as the higher is educational attainment. for instance, the average earnings for individuals who have not completed their primary education is rp. 1,430,214 while the average earnings for those who have completed senior high school and postgraduate is rp. 2,413,542 and rp. 7,942,429 respectively. unfortunately, we did not find any individuals who are working in manufacturing sector that at least have been graduated from primary school. moreover, according to the result of anova f-test, we can reject the null hypothesis and initially suggest that there is a significant relationship earnings and educational attainment. the main results presented in table 3 where we have three models as we explained above and suggest the following. we find that the most significant variable that gives the highest positive impact on earnings is educational attainment for all models. we use category of not completed primary school as the baseline. thus, the earning for people who at least have obtained senior high school degree are higher by 0.475, 0.454, and 0.475 percentage points than those who have not completed primary school in model 1, model 2, and model 3 respectively. the value of coefficients is also increasing as the educational attainment gets higher as well for all three models, which indicates the higher that individuals attain additional education level the higher the earnings they obtain. this result is in line with the finding of johnson and chow (1997) and santoso (2017). interestingly, the people who have at least postgraduate degree who are working in manufacturing sector are enjoying the most effect. however, this impact cannot be seen in rural area, since the number of people with that status is zero in the area mentioned. in addition, the effect of education on earnings for people who live in urban area are greater than those who live in rural area. the impact of work experiences on earnings is quite small despite the coefficient in all area are positive. this finding is in line with wannakrairoj (2013), however there exist a slight difference with our result. from regression output, the impact of work experiences for the people who live in rural area is higher than those who live in urban area to some extent. this result differs with the one in wannakrairoj (2013) where the effect is higher in urban area. shidiqi & pasiya the effect of educational attainment and work experiences… jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 158 table 3 ordinary least square, earnings, educational attainment, work experiences and socio-economic variables variable model 1 urban and rural model 2 urban only model 3 rural only education not completed primary school junior high 0.218 *** (0.057) 0.206 *** (0.071) 0.229 ** (0.103) senior high 0.475 *** (0.062) 0.454 *** (0.075) 0.475 *** (0.115) bachelor 0.704 *** (0.788) 0.706 *** (0.091) 0.500 *** (0.162) postgraduate 1.767 *** (0.279) 1.739 *** (0.278) work experiences 0.014 *** (0.004) 0.011 ** (0.005) 0.019** (0.008) gender female male 0.181 *** (0.031) 0.246 *** (0.037) -0.005 (0.062) marital unmarried married 0.071 * (0.039) 0.085 * (0.045) 0.014 (0.085) age 0.021 * (0.011) 0.023 * (0.013) 0.012 (0.021) age2 -0.0003 * (0.0001) -0.0003 * (0.0002) -0.0001 (0.0003) number of observation 1,552 1148 404 r2 0.1376 0.1606 0.0699 *, **, and *** specify significant at 10, 5, and 1 % level. robust standard error in parentheses. other social variables such as gender, marital status, and age give the following results. earnings tend to be greater for men who are married rather than women. however, the significant effect only for those who live in urban area. lastly, we find a positive effect of variable age on earnings with age-square coefficient that is also significantly less than zero, indicating the diminishing return of age as the people becomes older. once again, this effect only for people who live in urban area. conclusion since indonesia, as a developing country, has been in a time of profoundly fast development for the most part in the urban area, there has been a sensational contrast between labor markets in urban and rural area, bringing in a gap of earnings distribution across regions of the country. in this manner, accordingly, earnings structure was additionally not uniform across the country. this study provides the empirical evidences, based on the ols regression of mincerian model that supports the significant correlations between educational attainment and work experience on earnings in the manufacturing sector in indonesia. the empirical results of this paper suggest that there exists a strong, positive, and significant relationship between education, work experiences, and earnings. shidiqi & pasiya the effect of educational attainment and work experiences… jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 159 inside that, the results also reveal the difference of this relationship in urban and rural area. as introduced in the outcomes, the coefficient of education is moderately huge, contrasted with the coefficient of work experience variable. interestingly, the coefficients for education variable are the most elevated for the people who have at least postgraduate degree. this illustrates that people who have that sort of degree and currently working in manufacturing sector in urban area are enjoying high earnings. however, the impact is to some degree distinctive with previous literature in which the coefficient for work experience variable for the people who live in rural area is slightly higher than those who live in urban area. for the controls, we effectively estimated education and work experience variables by including social variables such as gender, marital status, and age. the results showed that those variables give positive impact on earnings only for the people who live in urban area. based on the results, there are several points that can be suggested for the government. first, the government can implement the educational reform by increasing the compulsory education policy from 9 to 12 years of education for all regions in indonesia. this policy will be beneficial for all indonesian people as their educational attainment increase will give them additional earnings. second, in order to support the mentioned educational reform, the government must monitor and evaluate periodically regarding the effectiveness of the educational funding policy. this is very important, since the funding aims not just to improve the educational system but also to reduce the educational inequality across regions in indonesia. in addition, the government may continue to improve the infrastructures so that people especially who live in rural area will have a good access to education. this research is only utilizing the cross-sectional data from ifls 5. further study may employ a data panel estimation that includes other important factors, such as quality of education, internal referral job entry, or even other macroeconomics factors that might affect the earnings structure that were not incorporated into this study. moreover, the use of quasi-experimental method might be more appropriate in estimating the mincerian model. acknowledgment the team of this study would like to thank to the dean and vice dean of faculty of economics and business, universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta (umy) in supporting this research. thank you also to the head and secretary of department of economics who always give support to us as well as lp3m umy that bestow funding for this study. shidiqi & pasiya the effect of educational attainment and work experiences… jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 160 appendix heteroscedasticity test multicolinearity test references alsulami, h. 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(2018). government expenditure on education, total (% of gdp). retrieved from: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/se.xpd.totl.gd.zs https://www.jstor.org/stable/1818907?seq=1%23metadata_info_tab_contents http://dx.doi.org/10.24034/j25485024.y2013.v17.i4.114 http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/se.xpd.totl.gd.zs jesp | jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan article type: research paper the determinants of inflation rate in indonesia lilies setiartiti* and yunita hapsari abstract: this study aims to analyze the influence of some independent variables which are believed to have an impact on inflation in indonesia. also, as one of the variables that are observed by the central bank of indonesia as a variable that could influence inflation stability in indonesia based on its volatility. those independent variables are divided in four categories namely money supply, exchange rate, bi rate as the interest rate, and gross domestic product. the data were obtained from the indonesian economic and financial statistics (seki) of central bank of indonesia and statistics indonesia from 2010 to 2017. this study used an error correction model (ecm) to get the equilibrium model and find out the influence of every independent variable on the short-run and long-run. results show that the money supply has a positive and significant influence towards inflation in the short-run when money supply increased by one point, then inflation increased by 9.68 points. nevertheless, the money supply has insignificant influence in the long-run equilibrium. the exchange rate and bi rate also have an insignificant effect on inflation neither in the long-run nor short-run. the gross domestic product has an insignificant effect on inflation both in long-run and short-run equilibrium. in a nutshell, this research summarizes the findings that have been conducted and offers some recommendations that could be taken into consideration to improve and strengthen the model’s estimation to be more relevant for the future implementation. keywords: inflation; error correction model; central bank of indonesia. jel classification: e31, c22, e58. introduction this study tries to analyze the influence of some independent variables that are monitored and believed to have an impact on the inflation stability in indonesia by the central bank (bank indonesia) and the government. it is in attempts to achieve and maintain the stability of rupiah which one of them reflected through inflation as amended in the act no.3 in 2004. theoretically, inflation is a monetary phenomenon where all the general prices are increasing overtime in the economy. the increasing price is a common thing. yet, it could worsen if the price is uncontrollable which leads to a catastrophe on the economy of nations. however, in the matter of controlling inflation, bank indonesia can control affiliation: universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta, indonesia. *correspondence: setiartiti.lilies1267@gmail.com this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.20.1.5016 citation: setiartiti, l. & hapsari, y. (2019). determinants of inflation rate in indonesia. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 20(1), 112-123 article history received: april 2019 accepted: april 2019 http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp setiartiti & hapsari determinants of inflation rate in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 113 it from the monetary aspects only. therefore, the outside of monetary aspects is out of its control (bank indonesia, 2004). since the implementation of inflation targeting framework (itf) as a strategy for implementing monetary is explicitly on july 2005, government together with bank indonesia surely have already taken it into their consideration about the important impact of inflation towards economic growth. it is to improve social welfare and the consideration of indonesia to be able to compete with other countries. during the period from january 2010 to december 2017 based on the quarterly basis data, the inflation always fluctuates as shown in the graph below. the inflation rate during the first quarter of observation in 2010 began with the number -0.14 percent. the highest rate on the observation periods is in the fourth quarter of 2014 with number 2.4 percent and the lowest number is during the third quarter of 2013 with -0.35 percent rate. figure 1 inflation volatility period 2010.i-2017.iv source: bps (statistics indonesia) inflation volatility is an inevitable phenomenon. it is common but needs to be under control. the achievement of inflation within the target range is a big agenda which currently being carried out by bank indonesia, considering the given impact of rocketing inflation is a big deal to the other economic aspects and society. considering one of the indonesian characteristics is that having a large number of the population in a group that lives slightly above the poverty line, means that relatively small inflation shocks can push them below the poverty line, making suffer and delight separated by thin lines. keeping inflation at a low level is pretty much goal of economic policymakers in indonesia and around the world. basically, the causes of inflation are demand-pull inflation and cost-push inflation. from the central bank, they can control it only from monetary aspects such as money supply, exchange rate, interest rate, and gross domestic product. first, taken from the quantity theory, it assumes that the increase in the quantity of money supply is matters and could lead to inflation. second from exchange rate aspects, in this global era, international trade -1 0 1 2 3 inf (percent) inf (percent) setiartiti & hapsari determinants of inflation rate in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 114 cannot be avoided because, in any kind of transactions, the usual used and accepted currency is us dollar. the value of domestic currency on the exchange rate is important because it would affect the international trade that eventually will affect the domestic economy. the depreciation of the domestic currency’s value on the exchange rate is often associated with higher inflation or vice versa. move on to the interest rate, since the implementation of inflation targeting framework in 2005, the central bank declared that interest rate is one of the tools that can influence the inflation volatility. the rise in the interest rate could suppress public and government spending and to reduce the overall demand which ultimately decreases the inflation rate. the important of the gross domestic product towards inflation is taken from the keynesian theory of consumption where an increase in consumption means an increase in the demand side. however, if the shift of demand is not followed by the aggregate supply, because of the low gdp affects the relatively flat of aggregate supply, it could lead to demand-pull inflation. some researchers have been conducting their research and published a journal about the influence of some variables that might affect the volatility of inflation. some of the variables that they marked to be important towards the volatility of inflation on their research are variables such as the money supply, exchange rates, interest rate, and gross domestic product. some of them gave significant results and some others did not. for example, (langi, masinambow & siwu, 2014) in their research explain the error correction model of engle-granger results that the changes interest rate is a positive influence and significant towards the changes of inflation. meanwhile, the changes in money supply and exchange rates are not significantly affecting the rate of inflation in indonesia even though they have a positive influence. according to hossain (2005), historically, indonesia has experienced 35 percent per annum rise of inflation during opec oil shock on the 1973-1974 and the second shock of opec oil price on 1979-1980 with 20 percent per annum. moderately, high inflation also has been experienced within the range of around 10-12 percent per annum on late-1960 until 1990. on 1997-1999 the asian currency crisis also known as ‘krismon’ by indonesian people hit the country’s economy with the peak level in 1998 that the inflation rose about 60 percent. the inflation during 1997-1999 spreadsand affects other sectors such as economy, society, and politics. research on inflation has been done by many researchers. some of them are kalalo, rostinsulu, and maramis (2016) who have concluded that the variables of the money supply, exchange rates, bi rate, and the world oil prices as a representative of administered prices simultaneously have a positive effect towards the inflation. however, only the interest rate has a significant effect on the change in inflation. those joint variables can explain 56,1% of the changes that happen in inflation as showed in the rsquared value, while the other 43,9% is influenced by other variables that are not included in the estimation model. in other hands, saputra and sbm (2014) who operated an arch/garch model, revealed that the changes of inflation can be explained by variables such as the money supply, exchange rates, interest rate, and rice prices as the representative of volatile foods. whereas, the money supply, exchange rates, and rice setiartiti & hapsari determinants of inflation rate in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 115 prices are positive and significantly influence inflation, while the interest rate even tough positive it does not significantly influence inflation. research conducted by krisnaldy (2017), which was using error correction model, shows that in short-term the only variable that has a significant influence towards inflation is exchange rate variable with a negative sign of relationship. however, the researcher found out that there is any correction mechanism on inflation, suppose if the inflation rate is on the bellow of equilibrium than the inflation will be expansive due to the growth of the exchange rate. on the other way around, if the inflation rate is above the equilibrium on long-term, then the inflation will be contractive to reach the equilibrium level. interesting research also conducted by abidemi and maliq (2010) where nigeria was the object of his research. the research method used was the augmented engle-granger co-integration test and error correction mechanism model with the results show that the changes or growth of money supply variable should be continuously monitored since it gives a long-run potential and magnitude of the inflationary pressure on the economy with a positive sign of relationship. the lower interest rate on lending, in this case, is important since the interest rate gives a resultant effect of investment crowd-out on the price level in the economy, or it can also be said that interest rate and inflation has a positive relationship. the growth of gross domestic product has a negative relationship and with a result from the test is significantly affecting the inflation. the exchange rate is found to exert a negative influence on inflation. the government expenditure has to be well managed to prevent over-spending and over-estimating that lead to imbalances in price stability level in the economy. different from aghisna (2017), by multiple linear regression that used in her research model, she has concluded that the fuel and oil price subsidies, exchange rate, and interest rate have a positive and significant influence on the growth of inflation in indonesia. however, the gdp variable even tough has a significant influence, it has a negative relationship towards the growth of inflation in indonesia. not much different from the research carried out by munepapa and sheefeni (2017), which used an error correction model method, gave the results that money supply, gross domestic product, lending rate, exchange rate, or in other words all variables excluding imports give significant influence to the inflation in that model. with the relationship that the gross domestic product has a negative relationship, and money supply has a positive relationship towards inflation. therefore, in their research, it can be concluded that in short-run cases policymakers should focus on other variables considering that imports are not important in explaining short-run inflation. siregar and rajaguru (2005), who used several statistical methods such as ardl, garch, and arch gave conclusions based on the working monetary model that the key determinant of inflation during the post-crisis period is the volatility in the exchange rate and rapid growth of base money or money supply. on the other hand, suprihati (2017) has a conclusion that money supply, interest rate, exchange rate, and the fuel and oil price variables can explain 69% of inflation that happened in this model. all of the variables except for money supply (m2) have a significant effect towards inflation in indonesia with setiartiti & hapsari determinants of inflation rate in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 116 further explanation that the interest rate has a negative influence, the exchange rate has a positive influence, the fuel and oil price have a positive influence towards inflation. wulan and nurfaiza (2014) who analyze the islamic perspective used a multiple linear regression model, conclude that the interest rate has a negative trend, the money supply has a positive trend, the exchange rate has a positive trend and all of them are significantly influence the inflation. using multiple linear regression methods, hartarto (2014) had a conclusion that interest rate has a positive and significant influence on inflation, while money supply even tough also has a positive influence it is not significant. on the other hand, gross domestic product and exchange rate variable have a negative relationship towards inflation, but both of them do not significant because every single point that increases in the independent variable is not accompanied by the increase of inflation variable. finally, likukela (2007), used an engle-granger and error correction model has concluded that the gross domestic product has a negative relationship towards inflation both in short-run and long-run analysis, therefore, she suggests that the government can reduce inflation by increasing the total output especially in the sectors that they have potential growth such as agricultural output. based on previous study, this study aims to analyzing the influence of the money supply towards inflation volatility. then, analyzing the influence of the exchange rate towards inflation volatility, analyzing the influence of bi rate towards inflation volatility and analyzing the influence of the gross domestic product towards inflation volatility. research method the study model used an econometrics model as describes: how are the independent variables affect inflation rates both in short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium simultaneously using error correction model (ecm) with denotations of variables as follows: inf = variable of inflation log_m2 = natural logarithm of the money supply er = variable of the exchange rate growth bir = variable of bi rate log_gdp = natural logarithm of gross domestic’s product the long-run estimation using ols the equation below gives a long-run equilibrium. in this estimation, the variables are lagged 1 period to generate error correction term. inf = c(1) + c(2)*log_m2 + c(3)* er + c(4)*bir + c(5)* log_gdp +ut setiartiti & hapsari determinants of inflation rate in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 117 where: c(1) = constant c(2) = coefficient of the money supply variable c(3) = coefficient of the exchange rate variable c(4) = coefficient of the interest rate variable c(5) = coefficient of the gross domestics product variable ut = residuals the error correction term the error-correction term relates to the fact that last-periods deviation from a long-run equilibrium influences its short-run dynamics. the error correction term is generated from the ols estimation by making a residual series from estimation above. after getting the error correction term we should test it using dickey-fuller to test the stationary of the result of residual. the error correction model through short-run estimation if the result of ect above is stationary on the level, the next steps put the ect on error correction model through short-run estimation. this model estimates the speed of dependent variable back to the equilibrium point after there are any changes in the variables. the estimation equation uses 1st difference both in the dependent variable and independent variables, exclude ect as shown below: d(inf) = c(1) + c(2)*d(log_m2) + c(3)*d(er) + c(4)*d(bir) + c(5)*d(log_gdp) + c(6)*ect(-1) + ut where: c(1) = constant c(2) = coefficient of the 1st difference of money supply variable c(3) = coefficient of the 1st difference of exchange rate variable c(4) = coefficient of the 1st difference of interest rate variable c(5) = coefficient of the 1st difference of gross domestics product variable c(6) = coefficient of the error correction term ut = residuals research finding classical assumption the test result shows that the value of prob. chi-square is 0.259 > α = 5%or 0.05 then it can be concluded that the data is free from autocorrelation problem. setiartiti & hapsari determinants of inflation rate in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 118 autocorrelation test result. breusch-godfrey serial correlation lm test: f-statistic 1.09793 prob. f(2,23) 0.3504 obs*r-squared 2.7017 prob. chi-square(2) 0.259 linearity test result ramsey reset test equation: deq01 specification: d(inf) c d(log_m2) d(er) d(bir) d(log_gdp) ect(-1) omitted variables: squares of fitted values value df probability t-statistic 0.616573 24 0.5433 f-statistic 0.380162 (1, 24) 0.5433 likelihood ratio 0.487195 1 0.4852 f-test summary: the probability of f-statistic’s value is greater than the α = 5 percent: 0.5433 > 0.05 means that the model is free from linearity problem. multicollinearity test result log_m2 er bir log_gdp log_m2 0.077400 -0.000807 -0.068175 0.033458 er -0.000807 0.000430 -0.007492 -0.000374 bir -0.068175 -0.007492 1.060974 -0.036721 log_gdp 0.033458 -0.000374 -0.036721 0.014891 the rule of the thumb to pass the multicollinearity test is none of the variables has a greater value than 0.85 towards another variable, it means that the data above is free from multicollinearity problem. heteroscedasticity test result heteroskedasticity test: white f-statistic 1.31462 prob. f(20,10) 0.3367 obs*r-squared 22.45827 prob. chi-square(20) 0.3162 scaled explained ss 52.50718 prob. chi-square(20) 0.0001 the results above show that the probability of obs* r-squared is 0.3162 is bigger than 5% means that the error correction model is free from heteroscedasticity problem. setiartiti & hapsari determinants of inflation rate in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 119 statistics test t-test result long-run estimation variable t-statistic t-table prob. significant effect (df:32, α:0.05) c 0.710972 2.042 0.4832 log_m2 0.941464 2.042 0.3548 no er 0.609241 2.042 0.5475 no bir 0.627521 2.042 0.5356 no log_gdp -0.824209 2.042 0.4170 no short-run estimation variable t-statistic t-table prob. significant effect (df:32 , α:0.05 ) c -1.314398 2.042 0.2006 d(log_m2) 2.440695 2.042 0.0221 yes d(er) 1.934298 2.042 0.0645 no d(bir) 0.360426 2.042 0.7216 no d(log_gdp) -0.768933 2.042 0.4491 no ect(-1) -6.713224 0.0000 in long-run estimation, all independent variables, individually, are not significantly affecting the change of inflation (absolute value of t statistic < t-table value). in short-run estimation, only money supply that significantly affecting the inflation (absolute value of t statistic > t-table value). f-test result estimation period fstatistic f-table f-table value p-value effect is significant? α, dfn, dfd long-run 0.537341 0.05, 4, 32 2.67 0.70951 no short-run 16.05909 0.05, 5, 32 2.51 0.00000 yes on the long-run, the f-statistic value (0.537341) < the f table value (2.67), means that all the variables, jointly, are not influencing the dependent variable together. on the shortrun estimation, the f-statistic > f value. 16.05909 > 2.51 means, through the estimation, all the variables, jointly together, are influencing the inflation significantly. in the long-run, the independent variables on the model only can be explained or predict the variance of the dependent variable by 7.3 percent. while for the rest, 92.7 percent is probably affected by other variables outside of this model. in the short-run estimation, the independent variables on the model can explained or predict the variance of the dependent variable by 76 percent. setiartiti & hapsari determinants of inflation rate in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 120 r2 interpretation estimation period r2 long-run 0.073736 short-run 0.762573 result and discussion based on the analysis result, the money supply has a positive influence on inflation, but it is only significantly influenced inflation on the short-run estimation. on the long-run estimation, when money supply increases by 1 point, the inflation will increase 2.016203 points. on the short-run, when the money supply increases by 1 point it would lead the inflation to increase by 9.684989 points. therefore, we have to keep monitoring the fluctuation of money supply considering the theory of quantity or fisher theory that says inflation is closely related to the money supply in the short-run. the exchange rate has a positive influence on inflation. from both short-run and long-run estimation, they are not significantly influenced to the inflation. on the long-run estimation, when the exchange rate increases by 1 point the inflation will increase by 3.137222 points. on the short-run, when the exchange rate increases by 1 point it would lead the inflation to spike by 8.319751 points. the effect of exchange rate towards inflation depends on the state of the economy. the faster an economy growth and the closer to full capacity, the diminishing in the domestic currency’ value more likely add inflationary pressure. on other hand, sometimes the fall of domestic currency will only cause temporary cost-push inflation. even though the bank indonesia rate has a positive influence on inflation for both longrun and short-run estimation, they do not significantly influence on inflation. on the longrun estimation, when the bank indonesia rate increases by 1 point, the inflation will also increase by 0.070701 points. on the short-run, when the bank indonesia rate increases by 1 point it would lead the inflation to increase by 0.077308 points with a status of not significantly influence on inflation. it should keep in mind. the not significance of interest rate influencing inflation in this result study is probably because of the use of variables on this study that is on a quarterly basis. it is quite long to be in the act to correct the inflation dynamics or the time lag problem in monetary policy to adjust the speed that has been increased during great moderation. the not significance also can caused by ‘decoupling’, a condition when economic pass through complexities even though in the short-term interest rate may encounter significant performance difficulties in monetary policy. even though the gross domestic product has a negative influence on inflation both in the long-run and short-run estimation, they do not significantly influence on inflation. on the long-run estimation, when the gross domestic product increases by 1 point, the inflation will decrease by 4.125952 points. on the short-run, when the gross domestic product setiartiti & hapsari determinants of inflation rate in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 121 increases by 1 point it would lead the inflation to decline by 1.218579 points with a status of not significantly influence on inflation. it should keep in mind. the negative sign of the gross domestic product influence on inflation indicates that the increase in gross domestic product or total output will decrease the inflation. the total output on agricultural sectors, for instance, could reduce or calm down the inflation rate. on the other hand, looking at the non-significance influence’s status of the gross domestic product towards inflation in this study indicates that every increase degree of gross domestic product is not always followed by the increase of inflation rate or the number of gross domestic product does not really matter in controlling the inflation. this inflation might influenced by other factors such as shocks from government-announced prices, for instance in subsidized fuel, electricity billing rates, transport fares and so on. this policy could increase the production cost which reducing the supply side that makes overall prices to increase. therefore, the gross domestic product could not afford to influence inflation. conclusion this study has exposed several results including the money supply has no significant influence on the long-run equilibrium but it has a positive and significant influence on inflation in the short-run with the coefficient of 9.684989 points which will increase inflation rate in every one point in the money supply. the exchange rate has no significant influence in the long-run and short-run equilibrium towards inflation. the bi rate has no significant effect on inflation neither in long-run nor short-run. the gross domestic product has no significant effect on inflation both in long-run and short-run equilibrium. the r-squared in the short-run estimation shows that the model can only explain around 76 percent of the inflation volatility while the other 24 percent 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(2014). analysis of factors affecting inflation in indonesia: an islamic perspective. international journal of nusantara islam, 2(2), 67–80. https://doi.org/10.15575/ijni.v2i2.149 https://doi.org/10.15575/ijni.v2i2.149 microsoft word 07-hardiyani_rev1 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015, hlm.200-209 willingness to pay perbaikan kualitas pelayanan kereta api hardiyani puspita sari1, lilies setiartiti2 1pusat pengembangan ekonomi, universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta 2fakultas ekonomi universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta jl. lingkar selatan, bantul, yogyakarta 55183 indonesia, phone +62 274 387656 e_mail korespondensi: yanipuspita50@gmail.com naskah diterima: januari 2015; disetujui: agustus 2015 abstract: the research aims to estimate willingness to pay of the people who use the economy class train long-distance of jogja-jakarta and to know what the factors are influencing willingness to pay motive. the research uses the primary data of 146 respondents that randomly chosen from the random sampling. willingness to pat can be estimated with the contingent valuation method (cvm). based on the analysis, the average value of willingness to pay/person for the fare of economic class train of jogja-jakarta is around rp78, 866, 00 with the total willingness to pay is around rp11, 514, 500, 00. factors that is predicted to influence the amount of willingness to pay for the respondents are age which has positive influence and significant towards willingness to pay. the variable of education period has positive influence and significant towards willingness to pay. the variable of income has positive influence and significant towards willingness to pay. the variable of children bearing has positive influence and significant towards willingness to pay. the means variable has positive influence and significant towards willingness to pay. keywords: willingness to pay; the economic class train; contingent valuation method jel classification: r41, l91, q51 abstrak: studi ini bertujuan untuk mengukur willingness to pay masyarakat pengguna jasa kereta api ekonomi jarak jauh jurusan jogja – jakarta dan untuk mengetahui faktor-faktor apa saja yang mempengaruhi willingness to pay tersebut. studi ini menggunakan data primer dengan jumlah responden sebanyak 146 responden yang dilakukan secara acak atau random sampling. willingness to pay dapat diperkirakan dengan menggunakan pendekatan contingent valuation method (cvm). alat analisis pada studi ini adalah menggunakan regresi linier berganda pada spss 20. berdasarkan analisis, nilai rata-rata willingness to pay per orang untuk tarif kereta api ekonomi jarak jauh jogja-jakarta adalah sebesar rp.78.866,00 dengan nilai total willingness to pay adalah rp11.514.500,00. faktor-faktor yang diduga mempengaruhi secara signifikan besarnya nilai willingness to pay untuk responden pengguna kereta api jarak jauh jogja-jakarta adalah variabel usia berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap willingness to pay, variabel lama pendidikan berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap willingness to pay, variabel pendapatan berpengaruh posistif dan signifikan terhadap willingness to pay, variabel jumalah tanggungan anak berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap willingness to pay, dan variabel maksud perjalanan berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap willingness to pay tarif kereta api ekonomi jarak jauh jogja-jakarta. kata kunci: willingness to pay; kereta api ekonomi jarak jauh; contingent valuation method klasifikasi jel: r41, l91, q51 willingness to pay perbaikan kualitas ... (hardiyani puspita sari, lilies setiartiti) 201 pendahuluan di era modern ini, jasa angkutan yang cukup memadai sangat diperlukan sebagaian besar masyarakat didunia untuk menunjang aktivitasnya yang dilakukan setiap hari, terlebih lagi jasa angkutan juga sangat diperlukan sebagai penunjang pembangunan ekonomi. tanpa adanya transportasi sebagai sarana penunjang maka tidak dapat diharapkan tercapainya hasil yang memuaskan dalam usaha pengembangan ekonomi suatu negara. sebagai bagian dari suatu sistem transportasi nasional, angkutan jalan harus memberikan fasilitas keamanan, kesejahteraan, ketertiban berlalu lintas dan angkutan jalan dalam rangka mendukung pembangunan ekonomi dan pengembangan ilmu pengetahuan ekonomi dan pengembangan ilmu pengetahuan dan teknologi, otonomi daerah, serta akuntabilitas penyelenggaraan negara (penjelasan undang-undang nomor 14 tahun 1992 sebagaimana telah diganti dengan undang-undang nomor 22 tahun 2009 tentang lalu lintas dan angkutan jalan uu 22/2009). ada hubungan yang erat antara transportasi dan jangkauan lokasi kegiatan manusia baik itu barang maupun jasa. hal ini terlihat bahwa betapa besar peranan penting transportasi dalam kehidupan maunusia dalam menjalankan kegitan sehari-harinya. makin bertambah baik alat transportasi yang digunakan manusia, makin bertambah tingkat mobilitas manusia itu, baik secara individual maupun secara sosial, berarti makin besar pula kemungkinan manusia dalam memperoleh sumber penghidupan yang lebih baik (siregar dalam widyaningtyas, 2010). ada banyak sarana angkutan umum yang ditawarkan di indonesia, salah satunya yaitu transportasi trakereta api. sesuai dengan undang-undang ri no. 23 tahun 2007 tentang perkeretaapian, transportasi mempunyai peranan penting dalam mendukung pertumbuhan ekonomi, pengembangan wilayah dan pemersatu wilayah negara kesatuan republik indonesia dalam rangka mewujudkan wawasan nusantara, serta memperkukuh ketahanan nasional dalam usaha mencapai tujuan nasional berdasarkan pancasila dan undang-undang dasar negara republik indonesia tahun 1945. kereta api merupakan sarana transportasi yang sangat diminati oleh masyrakat. jika dibandingkan dengan sarana transportasi lain, kereta api dirasakan lebih ekonomis, tertib dan aman. tabel 1. jumlah total penumpang kereta api jawa dan sumatra tahun 2006-2014 (satuan dalam orang) tahun penumpang kereta api 2006 15,900,000 2007 17,500,000 2008 19,400,000 2009 20,700,000 2010 20,300,000 2011 19,900,000 2012 20,210,000 2013 21,600,000 2014 27,700,000 sumber: bps (badan pusat statistik republik indonesia) dengan mengamati tabel 1, betapa banyaknya jumlah masyarakat yang sangat antusias menggunakan jasa transportasi kereta ini hal ini dapat dilihat dari, tahun 2008 jumlah penumpang kereta api pulau jawa dan sumatra meningkat sebesar 19,400,000 orang dan mengalami penurunan jumlah penumpang pada tahun 2011 sebesar 19,900,000 orang. bps mencatat jumlah penumpang kereta api paling banyak mengalami penurunan berasal dari wilayah jakarta, bogor, depok, tangerang dan bekasi (jabodetabek). penurunan ini disebabkan oleh tidak adanya event spesial seperti hari raya serta beberapa jumlah kereta yang sudah tua (dilansir di industri.kontan.co.id). diikuti dengan kenaikan jumlah penumpang kereta api pada tahun berikutnya yaitu tahun 2012 sampai tahun 2014 yaitu sebesar 27,700,000 orang. dalam dunia transportasi harga sangat menentukan kepuasan penumpang dalam menggunakan transportasi tersebut, hal ini berkaitan dengan tingkat pendapatan yang dimiliki oleh penumpang. semakin tinggi tarif tersebut maka akan membuat penumpang berpikir dua kali dalam menggunakan jasa angkutan itu, dan demikian sebaliknya jika tarif yang yang ditawarkan rendah maka penumpang cenderung memanfaatkan sarana transportasi tanpa melakukan pertimbangan lebih banyak. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015: 200-209 202 mulai 1 april 2015, pemerintah merencanakan penerapan tarif baru untuk kereta api kelas ekonomi jarak sedang dan jarak jauh, yang disebabkan karena beberapa faktor yaitu fluktuasi harga bahan bakar minyak (bbm) bersubsidi, perubahan margin dalam perhitungan biaya operasional kereta api ekonomi yang semula 8% menjadi 10% dan terakhir, fluktuasi kurs dolar amerika serikat (usd) terhadap mata uang rupiah yang mana akan mempengaruhi naiknya harga suku cadang (pt kai). selain itu, kenaikan tarif kereta api juga dikarenakan adanya perjanjian antara pt kereta api indonesia (persero) dengan dirjen perkeretaapian no hk221/i/1/kka-2015 tanggal 2 januari 2015 tentang penyelenggaraan kewajiban publik (pso) bidang angkutan kereta api pelayanan kelas ekonomi tahun anggaran 2015. berdasarkan aturan baru itu, kenaikan tarif kereta api ekonomi jarak jauh sekitar 30%50% sedangkan kereta api lokal naik sekitar 25%-30% (simomot.com, 2015) . berdasarkan pra survei yang peneliti lakukan, bahwa sebagian besar masyarakat keberatan atas diberlakukan kebijakan baru pt kai tentang kenaikan tarif kereta api ekonomi jarak sedang dan jarak jauh, dikarenakan masyarakat sudah merasakan dampak dari kenaikan bbm november tahun lalu yang mengakibatkan harga sembako dan hargaharga barang lainnya naik. studi ini menggunakan metode cvm (contingent valuation method) yang bertujuan untuk mengetahui keinginan membayar dari masyarakat, serta mengetahui keinginan menerima kerusakan suatu lingkungan (amanda,2009). studi ini merujuk pada beberapa studi yang menggunakan metode yang sama, seperti prasetyo dan saptutyningsih (2013) dalam studinya telah menguji variabel-variabel yang mempengaruhi kesediaan membayar masyarakat di desa wisata kabupaten sleman pasca erupsi merapi, studi ini menggunakan metode cvm dengan menggunakan data primer. hasil studi menunjukkan bahwa usia, pendidikan, pendapatan, jumlah tanggungan keluarga berpengaruh terhadap kesediaan membayar (willingness to pay) dalam upaya perbaikan kualitas lingkungan desa-desa wisata di kabupaten sleman pasca erupsi merapi. ladiyance s dan yuliana l (2014) dalam studinya telah menguji variabel-variabel yang mempengaruhi kesediaan membayar (willingness to pay) masyarakat bidaracina jatinegara jakarta timur dan analisis yang digunakan adalah contingent valuation method (cvm dan regresi logistik, menyatakan bahwa perkiraan nilai wtp sebagai upaya penanggulangan pencemaran sungai ciliwung sebesar rp.4.325/ bulan untuk setiap rumah tangga, dan total wtp sebagai gambaran nilai jasa lingkungan sungai ciliwung oleh masyarakat bidaracina sebesar rp1.935.576,92/bulan. variabel-variabel yang berpengaruh signifikan terhadap kesediaan membayar masyarakat bidarancina adalah pendidikan, pengetahuan, status kepemilikan rumah dan pendapatan. sedangkan variabel yang tidak berpengaruh signifikan adalah umur, jenis kelamin, jumlah anggota rumah tangga, dan sumber utama air minum.kamal (2014) dalam studinya dengan menggunakan metode cvm menyatakan bahwa, berdasarkan data yang diperoleh dengan wawancara langsung kepada 150 pengguna trans jogja, total willingness to pay 150 responden dalam upaya perbaikan kualitas pelayanan trans jogja adalah sebesar rp731.500,00 dengan nilai mean rp4.877,00. terdapat beberapa variabel-variabel yang berpengaruh signifikan terhadap willingness to pay pengguna jasa trans jogja adalah usia, tingkat penghasilan dan jumlah tanggungan anak. sedangkan variabel yang tidak signifikan adalah lama berjalan ke halte berpengaruh negatif secara signifikan terhadap willingness to pay pengguna trans jogja. simanjuntak (2009) dalam studinya menyatakan bahwa, karakteristik utama dari masyarakat pelanggan air dari proyek wslic adalah umur responden mayoritas berkisar antara 20-29 tahun, tingkat pendidikan relatif rendah, tingkat pendapatan mayoritas tersebar pada skala rp750.000,00–rp1.250.000,00 di mana tingkat penggunaan terhadap air tidak terlalu banyak, hanya sesuai dengan keperluan rumah tangga sehari-hari. nilai rata-rata kelompok pertama adalah sebesar rp1000,00, nilai rata-rata kelompok kedua adalah sebesar rp703,0303 dan nilai rata-rata kelompok ketiga sebesar rp.498,7273. bersumber dari ketiga kelompok masyarakat pengguna wslic di atas, maka rata-rata wtp dari keseluruhan responden willingness to pay perbaikan kualitas ... (hardiyani puspita sari, lilies setiartiti) 203 adalah rp634,21053. nilai ini diharapkan dapat menjadi bahan pertimbangan dalam penentuan iuran wslic setelah adanya peningkatan pelayanan wslic dan perbaikan sistem distribusi air wslic. faktor-faktor yang berpengaruh secara nyata (signifikan) dalam model yang ditetapkan dalam studi ini adalah faktor tingkat pendapatan (nyata pada α = 10 persen) dan faktor kelompok masyarakat pengguna air dengan proyek wslic (nyata pada α=1 persen). fadilah (2011) dalam studinya menyatakan bahwa, paket wisata jogging track plus memiliki nilai rataan wtp sebesar rp56.132,00 dengan nilai total wtp (twtp) adalah rp387.366.932,00. paket konservasi memiliki nilai rataan wtp sebesar rp127.313,00 dan nilai twtpnya sebesar rp878.587.013,00. nilai rata-rata wtp responden terhadap kedua paket tersebut ternyata lebih kecil dari rencana tarif yang akan diberlakukan oleh pihak pengelola yakni rp65.000 dan rp170.000. faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi secara nyata besarnya nilai wtp responden untuk kedua paket wisata tersebut adalah variabel lamanya menempuh pendidikan dan tingkat pendapatan. variabel biaya perjalanan hanya berpengaruh nyata untuk paket konservasi sedangkan untuk paket jogging track plus tidak berpengaruh nyata. variabel jumlah kunjungan, jumlah tanggungan dan frekuensi kunjungan tidak berpengaruh nyata terhadap nilai wtp responden untuk kedua paket tersebut. amanda (2009) dalam studinya menyebutkan, nilai rata-rata wtp pengunjung danau situgede sebesar rp3.588,24, sedangkan nilai total wtp (twtp) pengunjung danau situgede sebesar rp2.342.000,00. sedangkan faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi besarnya nilai wtp pengunjung danau situgede adalah faktor tingkat pendapatan, pemahaman serta pengetahuan responden mengenai manfaat dan kerusakan danau, dan faktor biaya kunjungan responden. yunis (2013) dalam studinya menyatakan bahwa, dari 100 orang responden, diperoleh responden yang wtp sama dengan retribusi berjumlah 38 orang, responden yang surplus konsumennya positif berjumlah 31 orang dan responden yang kesediaan membayarnya lebih kecil dibandingkan retribusi juga berjumlah 31 orang. di antara 31 responden yang surplus konsumennya positif diperoleh rata-ratanya adalah rp7000. kesediaan membayar masyarakat (wtp terhadap kebersihan di kecamatan tampan pekanbaru adalah rp1000 sampai rp25000. berdasarkan perhitungan kesediaan membayar masyarakat tampan (total willingness to pay) adalah sebesar rp304.838.300 per bulan dengan rata-rata per kk 10.330, sedangkan 10,1% wtp dipengaruhi oleh variabel pendapatan, dan pendidikan. di sini variabel pendapatan, dan pendidikan berpengaruh positif tetapi lemah terhadap variabel kesediaan membayar masyarakat (wtp). berdasarkan pengujian secara simultan, diketahui bahwa variabel pendapatan, dan variabel pendidikan berpengaruh terhadap wtp. adapun tujuan studi ini adalah sebagai berikut, untuk mengukur willingness to pay masyarakat pengguna jasa kereta api ekonomi jarak jauh jurusan jogja-jakarta dan untuk mengetahui faktor-faktor apa saja yang mempengaruhi willingness to pay tersebut. metode penelitian jenis dan sumber data jenis data yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah data primer. data primer adalah data yang dikumpulkan dan diolah sendiri oleh organisasi yang menerbitkan atau menggunakannya. data primer diperoleh melalui wawancara langsung atau (direct interview) dengan menggunakan kuesioner dengan calon penumpang kereta api ekonomi jarak jauh sebagai responden. data tersebut meliputi karakteristik karakteristik calon penumpang kereta api ekonomi jarak jauh seperti, umur, jenis kelamin, status perkawinan, tingkat pendidikan, jenis pekerjaan, tingkat pendapatan, jumlah tanggungan, dan lain-lain. studi ini dilakukan di stasiun lempuyangan, daerah istimewa yogyakarta. pemilihan lokasi ini dikarenakan stasiun lempuyangan merupakan stasiun yang melayani semua pemberhentian kereta ekonomi yang melintasi yogyakarta. dalam studi ini teknik pengumpulan data yang digunakan adalah dengan cara: studi kepustakaan yaitu merupakan satu cara untuk memperoleh data dengan cara membaca literatur yang berkaitan dengan permasalahan yang sedang diteliti, metode dokumentasi merupakan teknik pejurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015: 200-209 204 ngumpulan data dengan mengambil data yang berkaitan dengan permasalahan yang sedang diteliti dari hasil dinas perhubungan, kuesioner yaitu memperoleh informasi dengan cara memberi suatu daftar yang berisikan rangkaian pertanyaan mengenai sesuatu masalah kepada responden yang akan dijadikan sampel. populasi adalah jumlah keseluruh dari obyek atau subyek yang berada pada suatu wilayah dan memenuhi syarat tertentu berkaitan dengan masalah studi. populasi dalam studi ini adalah calon penumpang kereta api ekonomi jarak jauh. pengambilan sampling dilakukan dengan pendekatan random sampling dimana semua individu dalam populasi baik secara sebdiri-sendiri atau bersama-sama diberi kesempatan yang sama untuk dipilih menjadi anggota sampel. random sampling yang juga diberi istilah pengambilan sampel secara rambang atau acak yaitu pengambilan sampel yang tanpa pilih-pilih atau tanpa pandang bulu, didasarkan atas prinsip-prinsip matematis yang telah diuji dalam praktek. karenanya dipandang sebagai teknik sampling paling baik dalam studi. sampel digunakan karena tidak semua unit pada populasi dapat diidentifikasi, biaya dan waktu yang digunakan lebih sedikit dibandingkan menghitung populasi. penentuan sampelnya dicari dengan memakai rumus slovin yaitu: 1) keterangan : n adalah jumlah sampel yang akan diteliti; n adalah jumlah populasi (pengguna kereta api ekonomi rata-rata per tahun 27.700); e adalah nilai kritis yang di inginkan, 10%. jadi jumlah sampel penelitian adalah: 27.700 1 27.700 10% 99,64 100 hasil dari rumus solvin diperoleh jumlah responden yang digunakan sejumlah 100 responden sebagai jumlah responden minimum yang digunakan, akan tetapi peneliti menggunakan 146 responden sebagai calon penumpang ka ekonomi jarak jauh. alat analisis studi ini menggunakan metode contingent valuation yaitu metode survei untuk menyatakan tentang nilai atau harga dari penduduk terhadap komoditi yang tidak memiliki pasar seperti barang dan lingkungan. metode ini dilakukan dengan survei secara langsung bertanya kepada calon penumpang kereta api ekonomi jarak jauh, tentang willingness to pay tarif kereta api ekonomi jarak jauh sekarang ini. persamaan regresi pada penelitian ini adalah sebagai berikut: wtp = β0 + β1age + β2educ + β3inc + β4jta + β5dest + e 2) keterangan: wtp adalah willingness to pay (rp); β0 adalah intersep; β1,..., β7 adalah koefisien regresi; age adalah usia; educ adalah pendidikan terakhir; inc adalah tingkat pendapatan; dest adalah maksud perjalanan; e adalah error term hasil dan pembahasan berdasarkan hasil survei yang telah dilakukan tentang willingness to pay (wtp) tarif kereta api ekonomi jarak jauh di yogyakarta, dengan wtp sebagai variabel terikat (dependent), usia, jumlah tanggungan anak, pendidikan terakhir, pendapatan dan maksud perjalanan merupakan variabel bebas dalam studi ini. statistik deskriptif dari variabel tersebut dijelaskan dalam tabel 2 analisis deskriptif. berdasarkan tabel 2, willingness to pay terbesar adalah rp82.000 dan terendah sebesar rp77.000. rata-rata willingness to pay sebesar rp78.866 dengan standar deviasi 1423,075, dengan nilai standar deviasi yang lebih rendah dari pada nilai rata-rata maka diindikasikan bahwa sebaran data akan jawaban responden terhadapat variabel willingness to pay baik. pada variabel usia juga dapat diketahui usia tertua dan usia termuda dalam studi ini. usia tertua pada studi ini adalah 64 tahun dan usia termuda adalah 17 tahun, dengan rata-rata usia willingness to pay perbaikan kualitas ... (hardiyani puspita sari, lilies setiartiti) 205 adalah 26,29 tahun yang memiliki standar deviasi sebesar 8,969. standar deviasi yang lebih rendah dari pada rata-rata usia menunjukkan bahwa sebaran data akan jawaban responden terhadap variabel usia adalah baik. tabel 2 juga menjelaskan pendidikan terakhir tertinggi pada studi ini adalah 18 tahun dan pendidikan terendah adalah 6 tahun yang memiliki nilai rata-rata sebesar 14,03 dengan standar deviasi sebesar 2,217 yang berarti bahwa nilai rata-rata pendidikan terakhir lebih tinggi dari pada standar deviasi, sehingga dapat dikatakan bahwa sebaran data akan jawaban responden terhadap variabel pendidikan terakhir adalah baik. pada tabel 2 menunjukkan deskrptif variabel tingkat pendapatan. nilai rata-rata variabel tingkat pendapatan adalah sebesar rp2.265.821 dengan tingkat pendapatan tertinggi sebesar rp6.200.000 dan pendapatan terendah sebesar rp800.000 variabel tingkat pendapatan memiliki skor standaar deviasi sebesar 1441072,281 sehingga dapat dikatakan bahwa sebaran data akan jawaban responden terhadap variabel tingakat pendapatan adalah baik. jumlah tanggungan anak terbanyak pada studi ini adalah sebanyak 2 orang dan jumlah tanggungan anak terendah adalah 0 orang. rata-rata jumlah tanggungan anak responden adalah 0,32 dengan standar deviasi 0,607 yang berarti bahwa nilai rata-rata lebih rendah dari pada nilai standar deviasi menunjukkan bahwa sebaran data akan jawaban responden terhadap variabel tanggungan anak adalah kurang baik. uji validitas dalam studi ini digunakan untuk mengukur valid atau tidak validnya suatu kuesioner. kriteria pengambilan keputusan untuk validitas adalah ditentukan apabila nilai r hitung yang dinyatakan dengan nilai corrected itemtotal correlation > r tabel pada df = n-2 dan α = 0,05 maka indikator dikatakan valid (widyaningtyas, 2010). hasil pengujian validitas menunjukkan bahwa semua variabel (willingness to pay, usia, pendidikan terakhir, tingkat pendapatan, jumlah tanggungan anak, dan maksud perjalanan) mempunyai nilai corrected itemtotal correlation> dari pada nilai r tabel yaitu sebesar 0,1625. uji realibilitas digunakan untuk mengetahui kemantapan alat ukur yang digunakan. suatu alat ukur dikatakan reliabel apabila dapat memberikan hasil yang sama bila dipakai untuk mengukur ulang obyek yang sama. hasil uji realibilitas menunjukkan variabel jenis kelamin, usia, jumlah tanggungan anak, pendidikan terakhir, tingkat pendapatan, kualitas pelayanan, dan maksud perjalanan memiliki nilai cronbach’s alpha based on standardiezed items lebih dari 0,6 sehingga instrumen yang digunakan dalam studi adalah reliabel. berdasarkan hasil uji multikolinearitas, model tidak terkena penyakit multikolinearitas karena telah memenuhi persyaratan ambang toleransi dan nilai vif. hasil uji heteroskedastisitas menjelaskan ternyata dalam model regresi tersebut semua menunjukkan signifikansi > 0,05, sehingga dapat disimpulkan bahwa dalam model regresi ini tidak terjadi heteroskedastisitas. berdasarkan hasil uji autokorelasi, diketahui nilai dw sebesar 1,735, di mana nilai tabel signifikan 5% dengan jumlah sampel 146 dan jumlah variabel 5 maka diperoleh nilai du ±1,802 yang artinya nilai dw 1,735 terletak diantara nilai du yakni 1,802 dan (4-du) yakni 2,198 sehingga dapat disimpulkan bahwa tidak terdapat autokorelasi. analisis regresi linear berganda digunakan dalam studi ini dengan tujuan untuk mengetahui ada tidaknya pengaruh variabel bebas terhadap variabel terikat. ringkasan hasil tabel 2. analisis deskrptif variabel definisi min maks mean std. deviation wtp willingness to pay 77000 82000 78866,44 1423,075 age usia 17 64 26,29 8,969 educ pendidikan terakhir 6 18 14,03 2,217 income tingkat pendapatan 800000 6200000 2265821,92 1441072,281 jta jumlah tanggungan anak 0 2 0,32 0,607 dest maksud perjalanan 0 1 0,34 0,474 sumber: data primer diolah, 2015 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015: 200-209 206 pengolahan data dengan menggunakan program spss tersebut terdapat dalam tabel 3. persamaan regresi pada studi ini adalah sebagai berikut: wtp = 323,172 + 20,307age + 106,830educ + 0,001inc + 379,817dest 3) keterangan: 1) ada pengaruh positif age (usia), educ (pendidikan terakhir), inc (tingkat pendapatan), jta (jumlah tangggungan anak), dan dest (maksud perjalanan) terhadap wtp (willingness to pay). 2) ketika usia bertambah 1 tahun maka willingness to pay responden untuk membayar tarif kereta api ekonomi jarak jauh akan naik sebesar rp774,009 atau sekitar rp. 775,000 (tujuh ratus tujuh puluh lima rupiah). 3) ketika pendidikan bertambah 1 tahun maka willingness to pay responden untuk membayar tarif kereta api naik sebesar rp1.214,131 atau sekitar rp1.300,00 (seribu tiga ratus rupiah). 4) ketika pendapatan naik sebesar: rp1.000.000,00 (satu juta rupiah) maka akan meningkatkan willingness to pay responden untuk membayar tarif kereta api ekonomi jarak jauh sebesar rp1.000,00 (seribu rupiah). 5) responden yang mempunyai maksud perjalanan untuk bekerja nilai willingness to pay nya lebih besar dari responden yang mempunyai maksud perjalanan selain bekerja. berdasarkan hasil estimasi regresi pada tabel di atas, pada kolom fit model dapat dilihat bahwa variabel jta (jumlah tanggungan anak) dikeluarkan dari model regresi dan dianggap tidak mempengaruhi willingness to pay (wtp). sedangkan variabel-variabel yang dianggap mempengaruhi willingness to pay (wtp) adalah age (usia), educ (pendidikan terakhir), inc (tingkat pendapatan), dan dest (maksud perjalanan). uji f merupakan alat uji statistik secara simultan untuk mengetahui pengaruh variabelvariabel bebas terhadap variabel terikat secara bersama-sama. hipotesis nol menyatakan bahwa variabel usia, pendidikan terakhir, tingkat pendapatan dan maksud perjalanan secara bersama-sama mempengaruhi willingnes to pay untuk membayar tarif kereta api ekonomi jarak jauh. hipotesis alternatif menyatakan bahwa variabel usia, pendidikan terakhir, tingkat pendapatan dan maksud perjalanan secara bersama-sama tidak mempengaruhi wtp untuk membayar tarif kereta api ekonomi jarak jauh. derajat kebebasan (df 1= k-1= 4, df2 = nk=140) dan taraf signifikansi sebesar 5 persen (0,05) maka diperoleh nilai ftabel sebesar 2,44. kriteria pengambilan keputusan adalah sebagai berikut: h0 diterima jika fhitung >ftabel atau probabilitas fstatistik < 0,05 ha diterima jika fhitung >ftabel atau probabilitas fstatistik > 0,05 berdasarkan tabel 3, hasil perhitungan statistik menunjukkan nilai f hitung = 80,78 yang berarti lebih besar dari pada ftabel = 2,44 dengan signifikansi sebesar 0,000 di mana lebih kecil dari 0,05. hal ini berarti bahwa h0 diterima yang artinya secara bersama-sama variabel usia, pendidikan terakhir, tingkat pendapatan, dan maksud perjalanan mempengatabel 3. ringkasan hasil regresi variabel full model fit model koefisien t-stat koefisien t-stat konstanta 75344,544 169,205 75323,172 169,515 usia (age) 14,579 1,266 20,307 2,118** pendidikan terakhir (educ) 116,950 3,092*** 106,830 2,960*** tingkat pendapatan (inc) 0,001 8,658*** 0,001 10,119*** jumlah tanggungan anak (jta) 152,235 0,899 maksud perjalanan (dest) 380,552 2,682*** 379,817 2,679*** r-squared 0,687 r-squared 0,688 f-statistik 64,704 f-statistik 80,788 prob f-stat 0,000 prob f-stat 0,000 keterangan : variabel dependen : wtp. *** signifikan pada α= 1 persen; ** signifikan pada α = 5 persen; * signifikan pada α= 10 persen willingness to pay perbaikan kualitas ... (hardiyani puspita sari, lilies setiartiti) 207 ruhi willingness to pay untuk membayar tarif baru kereta api ekonomi jarak jauh. willingness to pay (wtp) responden untuk membayar tarif baru kereta api ekonomi jarak jauh adalah sebesar 75323,172. usia berpengaruh signifikan terhadap wtp untuk membayar tarif baru kereta api ekonomi jarak jauh. pendidikan terakhir berpengaruh signifikan terhadap wtp untuk membayar tarif baru kereta api ekonomi jarak jauh. tingkat pendapatan berpengaruh signifikan terhadap wtp untuk membayar tarif baru kereta api ekonomi jarak jauh. maksud perjalanan berpengaruh signifikan terhadap wtp untuk membayar tarif baru kereta api ekonomi jarak jauh. berdasarkan tabel 3, persamaan regresi pada studi ini adalah wtp = 75323,172+20,307age + 106,830educ + 0,001inc + 379,817dest. nilai koefisien determinasi (adjusted r2) adalah sebesar 0,688. hal ini berarti 68,8 persen willingness to pay (wtp) dapat dijelaskan oleh, usia, pendidikan terakhir, tingkat pendapatan dan maksud perjalanan, sedangkan sisanya yaitu 31,2 persen willingness to pay dipengaruhi oleh variabel-variabel diluar studi ini. berdasarkan hasil survei kepada 146 responden, total willingness to pay (wtp) untuk membayar tarif baru kereta api ekonomi jarak jauh adalah sebesar rp.11.514.500,00-, dengan rata-rata willingness to pay per orang sebesar rp78.866,00-. besarnya willingness to pay dipengaruhi oleh usi, pendidikan, tingkat pendapatan, dan maksud perjalanan. berdasarkan total willingness to pay dapat diketahui total surplus konsumen dari 146 orang. surplus konsumen adalah jumlah yang dibayarkan oleh konsumen untuk barang dan jasa dengan willingness to pay. pt kai telah menetapkan harga tiket kereta api ekonomi jarak jauh jogja-jakarta adalah sebesar rp.75.000,00-. total surplus konsumen dapat diketahui dengan mengurangi total willingness to pay dengan harga tiket yang akan dibayarkan oleh 146 responden. besarnya total surplus konsumen dari 146 orang responden adalah rp564.500,00 = rp11.514.500,00 – (146 x rp75.000,00) dengan rata-rata surplus konsumen per orang adalah rp3.866,00= rp78.866,00 – rp75.000,00. berdasarkan hasil tersebut dapat dijelaskan bahwa responden rela menyisihkan uang lebih yang akan dimasukkan kedalam harga tiket baru kereta api ekonomi jarak jauh. hal ini berarti menjadi masukkan bagi para pengelola kereta api ekonomi jarak jauh untuk dapat menyediakan kualitas transportasi yang baik. dengan adanya perbaikan kualitas yang diberikan oleh pengelola kereta api ekonomi, diharapkan banyak pengguna kendaraan pribadi yang akan beralih menggunakan moda transportasi publik ini. hasil pengolahan data primer menunjukkan bahwa usia berpengaruh positif terhadap willingness to pay (wtp) untuk membayar tarif baru kereta api ekonomi jarak jauh dengan asumsi adanya perbaikan kualitas layanan dari moda transportasi ini. apabila usia bertambah satu tahun maka willingness to pay juga akan mengalami kenaikan dengan asumsi faktor lain dianggap tetap. hal ini disebabkan karena semakin bertambah usia seseorang maka semakin luas cara berfikir dalam memahami pentingnya suatu kualitas pelayanan. hasil studi ini memiliki kesamaan dengan studi yang dilakukan oleh kamal (2014), yang menjelaskan bahwa variabel usia memiliki tanda positif, yang artinya apabila usia meningkat maka wtp juga akan mengalami peningkatan dengan asumsi faktor lain dianggap tetap. hasil pengolahan data primer menunjukkan bahwa pendidikan terakhir berpengaruh positif terhadap willingness to pay (wtp) untuk membayar tarif baru kereta api ekonomi jarak jauh dengan asumsi adanya perbaikan kualitas layanan dari moda transportasi ini. jika responden memiliki level pendidikan yang lebih tinggi maka willingness to pay juga akan mengalami kenaikan dengan asumsi faktor lain dianggap tetap. hal ini disebabkan karena apabila seseorang menempuh pendidikan yang lebih lama maka pola pikir seseorang itu akan semakin tinggi, biasanya mereka dapat merasakan dampak apa yang akan mereka dapatkan ketika menyisihkan sebagian uang mereka kedalam tiket kereta api ekonomi jarak jauh. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015: 200-209 208 studi ini mendukung studi sebelumnya yang dilakukan oleh ladiyance dan yuliana (2014) yang menyebutkan hubungan pendidikan terakhir dan kesediaan membayar masyarakat bidaracina adalah positif, artinya bahwa responden yang pendidikan terakhirnya lebih tinggi atau sama dengan smp/sederajat memiliki kecendrungan untuk bersedia membayar semakin besar dibandingkan responden yang pendidikan terakhirnya lebih rendah dari smp. selain itu hasil ini juga mendukung studi yang dilakukan oleh fadilah (2011) yang menjelaskan bahwa semakin lama tingkat pendidikan pengunjung, maka peluang pengunjung untu membayar paket wisata semakin besar, hal ini disebabkan karena seseorang yang menempuh pendidikan lenih lama biasanya pola fikir orang tersebut akan semakin tinggi sehingga dapat lebih merasakan adanya manfaat dari paketpaket wisata tersebut. hasil studi ini menunjukkan bahwa tingkat pendapatan berpengaruh positif terhadap willingness to pay (wtp) untuk membayar tarif baru kereta api ekonomi jarak jauh dengan asumsi adanya perbaikan kualitas layanan. semakin tinggi tingkat pendapatan seseorang maka akan semakin tinggi pula kemampuan seseorang mengeluarkan uang tambahan untuk membayar tarif baru kereta api ekonomi jarak jauh. hal ini disebabkan oleh semakin tinggi tingkat pendapatan seseorang maka seseorang tersebut akan lebih mudah mengeluarkan uang untuk kebutuhan lainnya seperti untuk peningkatan suatu kualitas. studi ini mendukung studi sebelumnya yang dilakukan oleh yunis (2013) mengatakan bahwa 10,1 persen willingness to pay dipengaruhi oleh variabel pendapatan dan pendidikan berpengaruh positif tetapi lemah terhadap variabel kesediaan membayar willingness to pay. selain itu hasil studi ini juga mendukung studi yang dilakukan oleh fauzi (2010) mengatakan bahwa variabel pendapatan berpengaruh signifikan secara positif terhadap nilai willingness to pay, semakin besar pendapatan maka kemampuan membeli juga akan meningkat. hasil studi ini juga mendukung studi yang dilakukan oleh fadilah (2011) mengatakan bahwa semakin tinggi pendapatan maka semakin tinggi pula nilai willingness to pay responden terhadap paket-paket wisata, hal ini disebabkan karena semakin tinggi pendapatan seseorang maka orang tersebut akan lebih memperhatikan kebutuhan lain selain kebutuhan pokok yang sudah terpenuhi seperti rekreasi. pada hasil studi ini, variabel maksud perjalanan memiliki pengaruh positif terhadap besarnya willingness to pay untuk membayar tarif baru kereta api ekonomi jarak jauh dengan asumsi bahwa adanya peningkatan kualitas pelayan. apabila tujuan mereka melakukan perjalanan dengan menggunakan kereta api ekonomi jarak jauh untuk bekerja, maka willingness to pay mereka lebih besar dari pada mereka yang melakukan perjalanan dengan menggunakan kereta api jarak jauh bukan untuk bekerja, seperti rekreasi, ibadah, pendidikan dan lainlain. hasil studi ini juga serupa dengan studi yang dilakukan oleh sontikasyah (2010) yang menjelaskan bahwa maksud perjalanan signifikan mempengaruhi pilihan responden dalam menetapkan wtp pada taraf 5 persen (p-value 0,011<α (5%) . simpulan berdasarkan hasil survei dari 146 orang responden pengguna kereta api ekonomi jarak jauh, total willingness to pay 146 orang responden untuk membayar harga tiket kereta api ekonomi jarak jauh adalah sebesar: rp.11.514.500,00 dengan nilai rata-rata: rp.78.866,00. faktor-faktor yang signifikan mempengaruhi willingness to pay membayar tarif kereta api ekonomi jarak jauh jogja – jakarta adalah usia, pendidikan, pendapatan dan maksud perjalanan. di antara ke empat variabel tersebut, variabel maksud perjalanan yang sangat mempengaruhi willingness to pay kereta api ekonomi jarak jauh jogja-jakarta. studi ini bisa dijadikan rujukan ketika akan dilakukan kebijakan tarif kereta ekonomi jarak jauh jogja-jakarta. kedua, studi ini akan lebih baik, dan akurat jika pengambilan sampel dilakukan lebih baik lagi, baik dari sisi jumlah responden yang akan diteliti, maupun metode pengambilan sampel. ketiga, untuk studi selanjutnya, diharapkan untuk menggunakan metode yang berbeda sebagai bahan perbandingan hasil sehingga dapat diperoleh variasi informasi. willingness to pay perbaikan kualitas ... (hardiyani puspita sari, lilies setiartiti) 209 daftar pustaka amanda, s. (2009). analisis willingness to pay pengunjung obyek wisata danau situgede dalam upaya pelestarian lingkungan. bogor: institut pertanian bogor. fadilah, s. d. (2011). analisis willingness to pay (wtp) pengunjung terhadap paket wisata di wana wisata curug nangka (wwcn) kabupaten bogor. institut pertanian bogor. fauzi, m. (2010). faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi kesediaan membayar pelanggan rumah tangga upt kota metro. jakarta: universitas indonesia. kamal, m. (2014). faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi willingness to pay pengguna trans jogja. yogyakarta: universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta. kontan, januari-april, jumlah penumpang kereta api turun 1,89%. http:// industri.kontan.co.id/news/januari-apriljumlah-penumpang-kereta-api-turun-1891. diakses tanggal 11 april 2015 pk 14.05. ladiyance, s., & yuliana, l. (2014). variabel variabel yang memengaruhi kesediaan membayar (willingness to pay) masyarakat bidaracina jatinegara jakarta timur. jurnal ilmiah widya, 1(1). prasetyo, n, j, dan saptutyningsih, e. (2013). kesediaan untuk membayar peningkatan kualitas lingkungan desa wisata: pendekatan contingent valuation method. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan vol.14 no. 2 oktober 2013. universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta. priantinah, d. (2012). pengaruh return on investment (roi), earning per share (eps), dan dividen per share (dps) terhadap harga saham perusahaan pertambangan yang terdaftar di bursa efek indonesia (bei) periode 2008-2010. jurnal nominal. universitas negeri yogyakarta.. rahmawati, c., (2014). analisis willingness to pay wisata air sungai pleret kota semarang. universitas diponegoro. rozi, m., f. (2007). analisis pengaruh kualitas pelayanan pt kereta api indonesia (pt kai) terhadap kepuasan konsumen (studi pada ka eksekutif gejayan di malang). universitas islam negri malang. saptutyningsih, e, & basuki, a, t. (2012). hedonic valuation of marginal willingness to pay for air quality improvement. economic journal of emerging markets, 4(2). simanjuntak, g. e. m. s., (2009). analisis willingness to pay (wtp) masyarakat terhadap peningkatan pelayanan sistem penyediaan air bersih dengan wslic (water sanitation for low income community) (studi kasus desa situdaun, kecamatan tenjolaya, kabupaten bogor). institut pertanian bogor. simomot. daftar harga tarif kereta api (ka) terbaru april 2015. http://simomot.com/2015/03/04/daftar -harga-tarif-kereta-api-ka-terbaru-april2015/. diakses tanggal 10 april 2015 pk 14.25 wib. sontikasyah, e. (2010). analisis kesediaan membayar pengguna jasa bus trans pakuan kota bogor (willingness to pay) dengan metode valuasi kontingensi. universitas indonesia. widyaningtyas, r. (2010). faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi loyalitas serta dampaknya pada kepuasan konsumen dalam menggunakan jasa kereta api harina (studi pada pt. kereta api indonesia daop iv semarang). universitas diponegoro. yunis, m. (2013). analisis tingkat kesediaan membayar masyarakat terhadap kebersihan di kecamatan tampan pekanbaru. universitas negeri riau. microsoft word 06-murdiono jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 2, oktober 2014, hlm.144-160   disparitas pembangunan antarwilayah di provinsi gorontalo, indonesia murdiono1, lilies setiartiti2 1pusat pengembangan ekonomi, universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta 2 fakultas ekonomi, universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta jalan lingkar selatan, bantul, yogyakarta 55183 indonesia, phone: +62-274-387656 e-mail korespondensi: setiartiti.lilies1267@gmail.com naskah diterima: april 2014; disetujui: agustus 2014 abstract: the research aims to analyze the different of region development in gorontalo province in the year 2008-2012, the development of region economy, and sectors that growth rapidly to be concerned in each region. the research uses the secondary data, namely, pdrb, and the growth of economy on each region. the tools use williamson index, klassen typology, location quotient (lq), model of growth ratio (mrp) and overlay. based on the analysis, we can conclude; the disparity of the region development is low with the value iw around 0,161-0,173. in gorontalo province, the region is divided into three quarters, namely, boalemo and bone bolango in the 4th quarter (the low development, and low income), gorontalo and gorontalo utara in 3rd quarter (high development, low income). kota gorontalo and puhowato in 1st quarter (high development and high income). on each region in gorontalo they have more than 2 sectors which growth so well. keywords: disparity development; williamson index; klassen typology; location quotient; economic growth jel classification: o18, r11, r58 abstrak: penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis perbedaan pembangunan daerah di provinsi gorontalo pada tahun 2008-2012, pembangunan ekonomi kabupaten/kota, dan sektor baik tumbuh cepat yang potensial untuk dikembangkan di setiap daerah. penelitian ini menggunakan data sekunder, seperti, pdrb per kapita dan pertumbuhan ekonomi kabupaten/ provinsi. alat analisis yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah indeks williamson, tipologi klassen, location quotient (lq), model rasio pertumbuhan (mrp), dan overlay. berdasarkan analisis yang telah dilakukan hasilnya;. disparitas pembangunan daerah rendah dengan nilai iw tentang 0,161-0,173. daerah di provinsi gorontalo dibagi menjadi tiga kuadran, yaitu boalemo dan bone bolango di kuadran iv (pertumbuhan rendah dan berpenghasilan rendah), gorontalo dan gorontalo utara di kuadran iii (pertumbuhan tinggi dan berpenghasilan rendah), kota gorontalo dan pohuwato pada kuadran i (pertumbuhan tinggi dan berpenghasilan tinggi) kabupaten. pada setiap daerah di provinsi gorontalo memiliki lebih dari dua sektor yang tumbuh sangat baik. kata kunci: pengembangan disparitas; williamson index; klassen typologi; location quotient; pertumbuhan ekonomi klasifikasi jel: o18, r11, r58 pendahuluan pembangunan suatu negara atau wilayah sejatinya tidak hanya melulu berkaitan dengan terjadinya percepatan pertumbuhan ekonomi sebagaimana yang banyak didengungkan oleh negara negara maju dan beberapa ekonom, namun perlu juga diperhatikan asas pemerataan dan keberlanjutan, sehingga tujuan pembangunan yang mulia berupa kesejahteraan masya disparitas pembangunan antarwilayah (murdiono, lilies setiartiti) 145 rakat secara menyeluruh dapat tercapai. namun realitas yang ada menunjukkan bahwasanya pembangunan selama ini selalu mengedepankan pencapaian pertumbuhan yang tinggi dan kemudian mengabaikan esensi kesejahteraan itu sendiri, yakni pemerataan antara wilayah dan distribusi spasial atas sumber daya. salah satu indikator yang selalu dijadikan alat untuk mengukur tingkat keberhasilan pembangunan ekonomi suatu wilayah adalah pertumbuhan ekonomi, karena variabel ini dapat mudah diukur secara kuantitatif. ekonomi dikatakan tumbuh jika terdapat kenaikan pendapatan (total maupun individu) sebagai akibat meningkatnya produk domestik bruto dengan mengabaikan kenaikan yang terjadi pada jumlah penduduk, tidak memandang apakah terjadi perubahan struktur ekonomi atau tidak, apakah ketimpangan ekonomi (antarwilayah, masyarakat, dan antarsektor) menurun. pencapaian pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tinggi yang dicapai berbagai wilayah tidak lantas menjamin terciptanya kemerataan pendapatan antarindividu dan wilayah. bahkan seringkali pertumbuhan ekonomi dibarengi dengan adanya ketimpangan dalam pembangunan. ketimpangan yang paling jelas terlihat adalah pada aspek pendapatan yang menimbulkan golongan kaya dan miskin, aspek spasial yang menimbulkan adanya wilayah maju dan tertinggal serta aspek sektoral yang menimbulkan adanya sektor unggulan dan nonunggulan. faktor-faktor penyebab terjadinya ketimpangan ekonomi regional antarwilayah adalah, yang pertama konsentrasi kegiatan ekonomi antardaerah. kedua, alokasi investasi yang tidak merata sebagi akibat dari timpangnya ketersediaan infrastruktur dan sumber daya manusia. ketiga adalah tingkat mobilitas faktor produksi (tenaga kerja, modal) yang lemah antarwilayah. keempat adalah perbedaan sumber daya alam. dasar pemikiran “klasik” sering mengatakan bahwa pembangunan ekonomi di daerah yang kaya sumber daya alamnya akan lebih maju masyarakatnya dan lebih maju dibandingkan daerah yang miskin akan sumber daya alam. provinsi gorontalo merupakan provinsi baru yang memekarkan diri dari sulawesi utara pada tanggal 16 februari 2001. provinsi gorontalo terdiri dari 5 kabupaten (gorontalo, bone bolango, pohuwato, gorontalo utara, boalemo) dan satu kota (kota gorontalo). kebijakan pemekaran wilayah menjadi sorotan banyak kalangan menyusul maraknya tuntutan beberapa daerah untuk melakukan pemekaran wilayah. kondisi ini wajar mengingat efektivitas kebijakan pemekaran wilayah untuk mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi relatf masih rendah, bahkan dalam beberapa kasus anggaran daerah (apbd) lebih banyak terserap untuk membiayai pengeluaran rutin yaitu gaji pegawai negeri dan tunjangan pejabat daerah (yuliadi, 2011). dengan usia yang masih tergolong muda tersebut provinsi gorontalo telah menorehkan prestasi yang amat mengesankan khususnya pada pertumbuhan ekonominya. pada kurun waktu 5 tahun semenjak berdirinya gorontalo memiliki tingkat pertumbuhan rata-ratanya 6,69% berada di atas rata-rata pertumbuhan ekonomi pulau sulawesi dan nasional yang hanya 4,73%. pada 5 tahun terakhir, sejak tahun 2008 hingga 2012 provinsi gorontalo mempunyai laju pertumbuhan ekonomi yang amat tabel 1. laju pertumbuhan pdrb sektoral provinsi gorontalo atas dasar harga konstan tahun 2008 2012 lapangan usaha 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 rata rata 1. pertanian 8,06 3,49 4,10 6,17 5,71 5,51 2. pertambangan & penggalian 10,14 14,44 10,58 6,76 6,62 9,71 3. industri pengolahan 5,47 3,66 8,81 7,53 9,55 7,00 4. listrik, gas & air bersih -0,74 6,51 7,81 9,06 8,13 6,15 5. konstruksi 10,17 14,51 11,69 9,57 9,38 11,06 6. perdag., hotel & restoran 6,87 8,67 10,22 12,11 11,13 9,80 7. pengangkutan & komunikasi 7,58 9,16 9,86 9,06 8,69 8,87 8. keu. real estat, & jasa perusahaan 7,20 9,06 8,96 8,78 9,30 8,66 9. jasa-jasa 8,39 10,02 6,93 4,63 5,22 7,04 pdrb 7,76 7,54 7,63 7,68 7,71 7,66 sumber: bps provinsi gorontalo, gorontalo dalam angka 2013 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 2, oktober 2014: 144-160 146 menjanjikan dengan rata rata laju pertumbuhan ekonominya sebesar 7,66% sebagaimana tertera pada tabel 1. jika dilihat dari sisi penawaran, pada kurun waktu tahun 2008–2012 sektor pertanian mempunyai kontribusi terbesar terhadap terbentuknya pdrb provinsi gorontalo dengan rata-rata kontribusi per tahun 28,93 persen. walaupun memiliki porsi terbesar terhadap terbentuknya pdrb, namun memiliki rata rata laju pertumbuhan terkecil yakni hanya 5,51% (persen). sedangkan sektor pertambangan dan penggalian serta sektor listrik, gas dan air bersih dengan kontribusi terhadap pdrb yang hanya 1,10% dan 0,57% namun memiliki rata rata laju pertumbuhan lebih tinggi dari sektor pertanian dengan rata-rata pertumbuhan per tahun sebesar 9,71% dan 6,15%. sektor yang mempunyai laju pertumbuhan tertinggi adalah sektor konstruksi yakni sebesar 11,06% dengan kontribusi terhadap pdrb sebesar 8,77%. ketimpangan pembangunan antarwilayah di provinsi gorontalo tergambar jelas pada ketimpangan yang terjadi pada pdrb per kapita dan total pdrb antarwilayahnya. kabupaten gorontalo selama tahun 2007– 2012, memiliki pdrb per kapita rata-rata 2,38 juta rupiah dengan share terhadap total pdrb provinsi gorontalo sebesar 29,54%. sedangkan kabupaten pohuwato memiliki rata-rata pdrb per kapita sebesar 4,10 juta rupiah dengan share terhadap total pdrb provinsi berada di bawah kabupaten gorontalo yakni sebesar 17,85%. beberapa studi tentang disparitas pembangunan telah dilakukan di berbagai daerah. oktavilia (2011) telah meneliti potensi ekonomi lokal daerah tertinggal sebagai upaya mengatasi disparitas pendapatan antardaerah di provinsi jawa tengah pada kurun waktu 20052009. dengan menggunakan indeks williamson diketahui bahwasanya ketimpangan yang terjadi cenderung naik dari tahun ke tahunnya, dan dengan analisis tipologi klassen didapatkan bahwasanya daerah yang termasuk daerah tertinggal adalah kabupaten kebumen, wonosobo, klaten, rembang, demak, temanggung, batang, dan pekalongan. sementara disparitas pembangunan di provinsi riau telah diteliti oleh caska dan riadi (2008). dengan menggunakan indeks williamson diketahui ketimpangan antardaerah di provinsi riau mengalami kenaiktabel 2. kontribusi sektoral terhadap pdrb provinsi gorontalo tahun 2008 2012 lapangan usaha 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 rata rata 1. pertanian 30,70 29,54 28,58 28,18 27,65 28,93 2. pertambangan & penggalian 1,04 1,11 1,14 1,13 1,12 1,10 3. industri pengolahan 8,00 7,71 7,80 7,79 7,92 7,84 4. listrik, gas & air bersih 0,57 0,57 0,57 0,57 0,58 0,57 5. konstruksi 8,06 8,58 8,91 9,07 9,21 8,77 6. perdag., hotel & restoran 13,65 13,79 14,12 14,71 15,17 14,29 7. pengangkutan & komunikasi 10,27 10,42 10,64 10,78 10,87 10,59 8. keu. real estat, & jasa perusahaan 8,53 8,66 8,76 8,85 8,98 8,76 9. jasa-jasa 19,18 19,62 19,49 18,94 18,50 19,14 pdrb 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 sumber: bps provinsi gorontalo, gorontalo dalam angka 2013 (diolah) tabel 3. pdrb per kapita kab/kota di provinsi gorontalo tahun 2007 2012 no wilayah tahun rata rata 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1 kabupaten gorontalo 2,05 2,19 2,35 2,42 2,55 2,71 2,38 2 kabupaten pohuwato 3,74 3,95 4,17 4,05 4,25 4,44 4,10 3 kabupaten boalemo 2,21 2,29 2,42 2,58 2,71 2,81 2,50 4 kabupaten bone bolango 1,80 1,90 2,00 1,98 2,07 2,18 1,99 5 kabupaten gorontalo utara 1,80 1,92 2,04 2,04 2,15 2,28 2,04 6 kota gorontalo 2,99 3,15 3,28 3,34 3,52 3,70 3,33 sumber :bps provinsi gorontalo. gorontalo dalam angka 2013 (diolah) disparitas pembangunan antarwilayah (murdiono, lilies setiartiti) 147 an, namun dengan menggunakan enthropy theil indeks ketimpangan pembangunan antardaerah mengalami penurunan. sedangkan dengan menggunakan indeks williamson dan enthropy theil indeks, hipotesis kuznetz tidak berlaku di provinsi riau. tipologi wilayah yang diteliti oleh muharrom (2013) dalam studinya tentang tipologi wilayah berdasarkan pertumbuhan, pendapatan per kapita dan kesenjangan ekonomi di provinsi jawa timur. dengan menggunakan tipologi klassen diketahui bahwa provinsi jawa timur terbagi menjadi empat golongan dilihat dari laju pertumbuhan dan pdrb per kapita. sedangkan dengan menggunakan indeks williamson didapati bahwa tingkat ketimpangan di jawa timur tergolong sedang serta mempunyai korelasi negatif dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi dengan menggunakan korelasi spearman. habibi (2007) dalam studinya tentang ketimpangan pembangunan antarkabupaten dan kota di sumatera utara, dengan menggunakan indeks williamson dan indeks gini diketahui bahwa ketimpangan yang terjadi di daerah tingkat ii tergolong rendah dan bervariasi dari tahun ke tahun. sedangkan menggunakan tipologi klassen diketahui bahwa sektor pertanian masih memegang peranan paling dominan. studi ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui perkembangan pembangunan ekonomi kabupaten/kota di provinsi gorontalo, sektor-sektor potensial yang menjadi unggulan masing masing kabupaten/kota di provinsi gorontalo, dan mengetahui perubahan besaran ketimpangan pembangunan antarwilayah di provinsi gorontalo menggunakan metode indeks williamson, tipologi klassen, location quotient (lq), models of growth ratio (mrp), dan overlay. untuk mengeliminir tingkat ketimpangan kesejahteraan dan kemakmuran yang terjadi antardaerah hendaknya masing masing daerah dapat mengembangkan beberapa potensi sumber daya yang ada, sehingga dapat meningkatkan pertumbuhan masing-masing daerah tersebut. dengan terkelolanya sumber daya unggulan dan potensial maka akan berimbas pada kemajuan masing masing daerah dan kesenjangan dapat menurun. metode penelitian jenis dan sumber data data yang digunakan dalam penelitian adalah data kuantitatif angka berupa data sekunder. data sekunder adalah data yang dikumpulkan dari literatur atau laporan yang ada hubungannya dengan masalah yang diteliti, di mana pengumpulannya dilakukan oleh pihak lain. data sekunder yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini meliputi pertumbuhan pdrb provinsi dan kabupaten/kota dan pdrb per kapita provinsi dan kabupaten/kota. data gambar 1. kerangka analisis jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 2, oktober 2014: 144-160 148 yang digunakan adalah dari tahun 2008–2012. penelitian ini dilakukan di provinsi gorontalo yang mempunyai lima kabupaten (kabupaten gorontalo, boalemo, bone bolango, pohuwato, gorontalo utara) dan satu kota (kota gorontalo) sebagai unit analisisnya. dalam penelitian ini data sekunder diperoleh dari laporan/publikasi pihak-pihak terkait terutama badan pusat statistik provinsi gorontalo serta lembaga lain yang relevan dengan penelitian. alat analisis ketimpangan pembangunan antarwilayah merupakan perbedaan pendapatan antarkabupaten/kota di provinsi gorontalo berdasarkan besarnya deviasi pdrb per kapita kabupaten/ kota dari rata-rata pdrb per kapita provinsi dengan menggunakan indeks williamson. untuk menjawab permasalahan dalam penelitian ketimpangan pembangunan antarwilayah di provinsi gorontalo, maka digunakanlah metode analisis tipologi klassen. metode ini digunakan untuk mengetahui gambaran mengenai pola dan struktur pertumbuhan ekonomi masingmasing daerah berdasarkan dua indikator utama, yaitu pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah dan pendapatan per kapita (pdrb per kapita). indeks williamson adalah salah satu ukuran ketimpangan antar wilayah (regional). koefisien variasi ini mengukur dispersi regional dari suatu atribut (dalam hal ini pendapatan per kapita) yang ditimbang dengan proporsi penduduk pada masingmasing daerah (hudiyanto, 2001). pengukuran ini didasarkan pada variasi hasil-hasil pembangunan ekonomi antarwilayah yang berupa besaran pdrb. indeks williamson diformulasikan dengan persamaan sebagai berikut: iw = ∑ 1) di mana: iw adalah indeks williamson; yi adalah pdrb per kapita di kabupaten/kota i; y adalah rata-rata pdrb per kapita di provinsi gorontalo; fi adalah jumlah penduduk di kabupaten/kota i; n adalah jumlah penduduk di provinsi gorontalo. kriteria pengukuran dalam penelitian ini adalah angka indeks yang semakin kecil atau mendekati 0 (nol) menunjukkan ketimpangan yang semakin kecil atau terjadi peningkatan kemerataan/kesejahteraan dan jika angka indeks semakin besar atau mendekati 1 (satu) menunjukkan ketimpangan yang semakin besar atau dengan artian pembangunan antarwilayah semakin tidak merata. kriteria yang digunakan untuk menentukan apakah ketimpangan pada taraf rendah, sedang atau tinggi. kriteria tersebut adalah sebagai berikut: (1) bila iw ≤ 0,3 artinya ketimpangan ekonomi wilayah tergolong rendah. (2) bila iw > 0,3 – 0,4 artinya ketimpangan ekonomi wilayah tergolong sedang. (3) bila iw > 0,4 artinya ketimpangan ekonomi wilayah tergolong tinggi. location quotient (lq) analisis lq digunakan untuk menunjukkan basis ekonomi suatu wilayah terutama dari kriteria kontribusi. alat analisis ini juga dipakai untuk mengukur konsentrasi dari suatu kegiatan (industri) dalam suatu daerah itu dengan peranan kegiatan atau industri sejenis dalam perekonomian regional atau nasional. perhitungan basis tersebut menggunakan variabel pdrb wilayah atas suatu kegiatan dalam struktur ekonomi wilayah. lq dapat dirumuskan sebagai berikut: ( / ) ( / ) vik vk lq vip vp  2) di mana: vik adalah nilai output (pdrb) sektor i kabupaten/kota dalam pembentukan produk domestik regional riil (pdrb) kabupaten/ kota; vk adalah produk domestik regional bruto total semua sektor di kabupaten/kota; vip adalah nilai output (pdrb) sektor i provinsi dalam pembentukan pdrb provinsi; vp adalah produk domestik regional bruto total semua sektor di provinsi. maka dapat diketahui konsentrasi suatu kegiatan pada suatu wilayah dengan kriteria sebagai berikut: (1) jika nilai lq > 1, maka sektor yang bersangkutan di wilayah studi lebih berspesialisasi dibandingkan dengan wilayah referensi. artinya, sektor tersebut dalam perekonomian daerah di wilayah studi memiliki keunggulan komparatif dan dikategorikan sebagai sektor basis. (2) jika nilai lq < 1, maka sektor yang bersangkutan di wilayah studi kurang berspesialisasi dibandingkan disparitas pembangunan antarwilayah (murdiono, lilies setiartiti) 149 dengan wilayah referensi. sektor tersebut dikatdikategorikan sebagai sektor nonbasis. (3) jika nilai lq = 1, maka sektor yang bersangkutan baik di wilayah studi maupun di wilayah referensi memiliki peningkatan yang sama. analisis model rasio pertumbuhan digunakan untuk melihat deskripsi kegiatan atau sektor ekonomi yang potensial berdasarkan pada kriteria pertumbuhan struktur ekonomi wilayah baik eksternal maupun internal (yusuf dalam agus, 2009). pendekatan analisis mrp ini dibagi menjadi dua rasio, yaitu rasio pertumbuhan wilayah referensi (provinsi gorontalo) dan rasio pertumbuhan wilayah studi (kabupaten/kota). dalam hal ini rps membandingkan pertumbuhan masing-masing sektor dalam konteks wilayah studi dengan pertumbuhan sektor wilayah referensi. rumus rps yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah: rps= (eij / eijt) / (eir / eirt ) 3) di mana: rps adalah rasio pertumbuhan wilayah studi; eij adalah perubahan pendapatan kegiatan i di wilayah studi; eijt adalah pendapatan kegiatan i pada awal priode penelitian di wilayah studi. eir adalah perubahan pendapatan kegiatan i di wilayah referensi; eirt adalah pendapatan kegiatan i awal priode penelitian di wilayah referensi. jika rps lebih besar dari 1 maka rps dikatakan (+) yang berarti pertumbuhan suatu sektor produksi tertentu di tingkat kabupaten atau kota lebih tinggi dari pertumbuhan sektor produksi tertentu provinsi. jika rps lebih kecil dari 1 dikatakan (-) yang berarti bahwa pertumbuhan suatu sektor produksi tertentu di tingkat kabupaten atau kota lebih rendah dari pertumbuhan sektor provinsi. hasil analisis mrp menunjukkan nilai riil dan nilai nominal kemudian hasil kombinasi keduanya dapat diperoleh deskripsi sektor ekonomi yang potensial dikembangkan di daerah kabupaten/kota di provinsi yang dapat diklasifikasikan menjadi empat bagian (yusuf dalam retno, 2011) analisis overlay digunakan untuk menentukan sektor atau kegiatan ekonomi yang potensial berdasarkan kriteria pertumbuhan dan kriteria kontribusi dengan menggabungkan hasil dari metode rasio pertumbuhan (mrp) dan metode location quotient (lq). metode ini mempunyai 4 (empat) penilaian atau kemungkinan, yaitu: (1) pertumbuhan (+) dan kontribusi (+), menunjukkan suatu kegiatan yang sangat dominan baik dari pertumbuhan maupun dari kontribusi. (2) pertumbuhan (+) dan kontibusi (-) menunjukkan suatu kegiatan yang pertumbuhannya dominan tetapi kontribusinya kecil. kegiatan ini perlu lebih ditingkatkan kontribusinya untuk menjadi kegiatan yang dominan. (3) pertumbuhan (-) dan kontribusi (+) menunjukkan suatu kegiatan yang pertumbuhannya kecil tetapi kontribusinya besar. kegiatan ini sangat memungkinkan, bahwa kegiatan sedang mengalami penurunan. (4) pertumbuhan (-) dan kontribusi (-) menunjukkan suatu kegiatan yang tidak potensial baik dari kriteria pertumbuhan maupun dari kontribusi. hasil dan pembahasan analisis tipologi daerah analisis tipologi daerah digunakan untuk mengetahui posisi perekonomian masing masing kabupaten di provinsi gorontalo, ditinjau dari tingkat pertumbuhan dan pendapatan per kapitanya (lihat tabel 4). selama tahun 2008-2012, daerah yang paling sering sebagai daerah relatif tertinggal adalah kabupaten boalemo dan bone bolango, namun kabupaten boalemo pada tahun 2008 berada pada daerah yang berkembang cepat. daerah yang sering berada pada perekonomian yang maju dan cepat tumbuh adalah kota gorontalo dan kabupaten pohuwato, namun kabupaten pohuwato pada tahun 2009, 2011 berada pada daerah yang maju tapi tertekan. kabupaten gorontalo dan gorontalo utara merupakan daerah yang sering berada pada perekonomian yang berkembang cepat, hanya pada awal tahun atau pada tahun 2008 kabupaten gorontalo utara merupakan daerah yang tertinggal (lihat tabel 5). jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 2, oktober 2014: 144-160 150 berdasarkan laju pertumbuhan dan pdrb per kapita rata-rata tahun 2008-2012, kota gorontalo sebagai pusat pemerintahan provinsi gorontalo berada pada kuadran i, atau merupakan daerah yang maju dan cepat berkembang. kabupaten gorontalo yang merupakan daerah yang berkontribusi paling besar terhadap pdrb provinsi gorontalo hanya berada pada kuadran iii, atau merupakan daerah yang berkembang cepat, karena mesti berkontribusi terbesar terhadap pdrb provinsi namun jumlah penduduk di kabupaten gorontalo juga merupakan yang terbanyak, yakni sekitar 35% dari keseluruhan jumlah penduduk provinsi gorontalo. kabupaten gorontalo utara yang merupakan daerah yang mempunyai kontribusi terkecil terhadap pdrb provinsi dan merupakan daerah dengan jumlah penduduk paling sedikit juga berada pada kuadran iii, atau merupakan daerah yang berkembang cepat bersama kabupaten gorontalo (lihat tabel 6 dalam lampiran). kabupaten pohuwato meskipun pada kurun waktu 2008-2012 sering berada pada kuadran i, atau merupakan daerah maju dan cepat tumbuh, namun berdasarkan laju pertumbuhan dan pdrb per kapita rata-rata tahun 2008-2012 berada pada kuadran ii, atau hanya dikategorikan daerah maju tapi tertekan karena secara rata-rata laju pertumbuhan perekonomiannya di bawah rata-rata laju pertumbuhan ekonomi provinsi gorontalo. sedangkan kabupaten bone bolango yang merupakan pemekaran dari kabupaten gorontalo, dan kabupaten boalemo yang merupakan induk dari kabupaten pohuwato berada pada kuadran iii, atau merupakan daerah yang relatif tertinggal. sedangkan untuk perubahan dan perkembangan kabupaten/kota yang ada di provinsi gorontalo dapat kita lihat dari pergerakan matriks tipologi klassen di awal penelitian yakni tahun 2008 dan matriks tipologi klassen di akhir tahun penelitian yakni tahun 2012. jika kita lihat pada gambar 2 daerah yang mengalami pergerakan atau perubahan ekonomi tabel 4. matriks tipologi klassen provinsi gorontalo, 2008-2012 y r yi > y yi < y ri > r kuadran i daerah maju dan cepat tumbuh pohuwato (2008,2010,2012), kota (2008-2012), kuadran iii daerah berkembang cepat gorontalo (2008-2012), boalemo (2008), gorut (2009-2012), ri < r kuadran ii daerah maju tetapi tertekan pohuwato (2009,2011), kuadran iv daerah relatif tertinggal boalemo (2009-2012), bone bolango (20082012), gorut 2008, keterangan: r adalah rata rata pertumbuhan ekonomi kabupaten/kota (provinsi); ri adalah pertumbuhan ekonomi kabupaten/kota yang diamati; y adalah rata-rata pdrb per kapita kabupaten/kota (provinsi); yi adalah pdrb per kapita kabupaten/kota yang diamati. tabel 5. matriks tipologi klassen di provinsi gorontalo berdasarkan laju pertumbuhan ekonomi dan pdrb per kapita rata-rata tahun 2008-2012 y r yi > y yi < y ri > r daerah maju dan cepat tumbuh kota gorontalo daerah berkembang cepat gorontalo dan gorontalo utara ri < r daerah maju tetapi tertekan pohuwato daerah relatif tertinggal bone bolango dan boalemo disparitas pembangunan antarwilayah (murdiono, lilies setiartiti) 151 hanya kabupaten boalemo dan kabupaten gorontalo utara. kabupaten boalemo yang semula berada pada kuadran iii, pada akhir tahun penelitian bergerak ke kuadran iv, atau dengan artian kabupaten boalemo mengalami perubahan yang buruk yakni dari daerah dengan kategori berkembang cepat menjadi daerah yang relatif tertinggal. gambar 2. pergerakan posisi kabupaten/kota dalam matriks tipologi klassen di provinsi gorontalo dari tahun 2008 ke tahun 2012 hal ini bertolak belakang dengan yang dialami oleh kabupaten gorontalo utara, di mana pada awal tahun penelitian kabupaten gorontalo utara berada pada kuadran iv, atau termasuk daerah yang tertinggal, namun diakhir tahun penelitian keadaan daerahnya membaik dengan berada pada kuadran iii, atau merupakan daerah yang berkembang cepat, bahkan perubahan itu sudah terjadi pada tahun 2009 sebagaimana ditunjukkan pada tabel 7. sedangkan kabupaten pohuwato dan kota gorontalo tidak mengalami perubahan kategori daerah dari awal tahun penelitian ke tahun akhir penelitian, yakni tetap berada pada kuadran i, atau merupakan daerah dengan kategori maju dan cepat tumbuh. hanya saja untuk kabupaten pohuwato kategori daerah di awal dan akhir penelitian tidak sama dengan kategori daerah jika didasarkan atas laju pertumbuhan dan pdrb per kapita rata-rata yang hanya menempati kuadran ii, hal ini dikarenakan pada tahun 2009 dan 2011 kabupaten pohuwato menempati kuadran ii. kabupaten pohuwato merupakan daerah yang kategorinya selalu berubah pada setiap tahunnya. kabupaten gorontalo juga tidak mengalami perubahan kategori daerahnya yang terus berada pada kuadran iii, atau daerah dengan kategori berkembang cepat. kabupaten bone bolango juga termasuk daerah yang tidak mengalami perubahan status daerahnya, di mana kabupaten bone bolango selalu berada pada kuadran iv, atau termasuk daerah yang relatif tertinggal. analisis ketimpangan pembangunan antar wilayah salah satu masalah yang sering muncul dari adanya pembangunan adalah terjadinya ketimpangan spasial atau ketimpangan antarwilayahnya. nilai indeks williamson dengan menggunakan data pdrb per kapita dan jumlah penduduk tiap kabupaten/kota di provinsi gorontalo dalam kurun waktu 20082012 dapat dilihat pada tabel 8. hasil nilai indeks williamson pada tabel 8 menunjukkan bahwasanya dalam kurun lima tahun terakhir, yakni tahun 2008-2012 nilai indeks williamson rata-rata tercatat sebesar 0,171, ini menunjukkan bahwasanya ketimpangan pembangunan ekonomi antarwilayah di provinsi gorontalo relatif rendah. walaupun tergolong rendah namun nilai indeks williamtabel 7. matriks tipologi klassen di provinsi gorontalo berdasarkan laju pertumbuhan ekonomi dan pdrb per kapita tahun 2012 y r yi > y yi < y ri > r daerah maju dan cepat tumbuh pohuwato dan kota gorontalo daerah berkembang cepat gorontalo dan gorut ri < r daerah maju tetapi tertekan daerah relatif tertinggal bone bolango dan boalemo jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 2, oktober 2014: 144-160 152 son terus naik dari tahun ke tahunnya kecuali pada tahun 2010. tabel 8. nilai indeks williamson provinsi gorontalo tahun 2008-2012 tahun indeks williamson 2008 0,172 2009 0,176 2010 0,161 2011 0,170 2012 0,173 rata-rata 0,171 pada tahun 2008 tercatat nilai indeks williamson sebesar 0,172 dan menjadi 0,173 pada tahun 2012, atau dalam kurun waktu hanya naik sebesar 0,001 saja. pada tahun 2008 nilai indeks sebesar 0,172 naik sebesar 0,004 menjadi 0,176 di tahun 2009, dan pada tahun 2010 mengalami penurunan nilai indeks yang cukup signifikan, yakni sebesar 0,015 menjadi 0,161. pada tahun 2011 nilai indeksnya naik kembali yang cukup signifikan menjadi 0,170, namun kenaikannya tidak sebesar penurunan yang terjadi dari tahun 2009 ke tahun 2010, dan pada tahun 2012 nilai indeksnya naik 0,003 atau menjadi 0,173, lebih besar 0,001 dari awal tahun penelitian yakni tahun 2008. ketimpangan pembangunan yang masih terjadi dan naik di provinsi gorontalo pada lima tahun terakhir meski pernah mengalami penurunan diduga disebabkan oleh beberapa faktor sebagaimana yang dikemukakan oleh williamson dan friedman alonso (dalam mandala harefa, 2010) yakni karena adanya migrasi penduduk produktif (usia pekerja) dan memiliki keahlian (terdidik) dari daerah sekitar kota yang tertinggal ke kota sebagai pusat perekonomian karena dengan bekerja di kota maka gaji yang diperoleh lebih besar. faktor lain yang menyebabkan makin membesarnya ketimpangan adalah investasi yang cenderung dilakukan di daerah yang maju dan berkembang serta daerah yang kaya sumber daya alam, bahkan tidak sedikit modal yang mengalir dari daerah tertinggal ke daerah yang maju, dengan alasan investasi di pusat perekonomian tingkat resiko kerugian relatif kecil. sedangkan penurunan nilai indeks williamson pada tahun 2010 dikarenakan kabupaten pohuwato sebagai wilayah dengan pdrb per kapita tertinggi di provinsi gorontalo mengalami penurunan, dan dibarengi kenaikan pdrb per kapita di kabupaten lain. penurunan pdrb per kapita kabupaten pohuwato dikarenakan pertumbuhan jumlah penduduk melebihi kenaikan pertumbuhan ekonominya. tercatat pertumbuhan ekonomi kabupaten pohuwato pada tahun 2010 sebesar 7,45 persen, sedangkan pertumbuhan penduduknya sebesar 10,77 persen. ketimpangan pembangunan yang terjadi di gorontalo relatif lebih rendah dibandingkan yang terjadi di pulau sulawesi dan nasional. hal ini ditunjukkan dengan nilai indeks williamson pulau sulawesi dan nasional yang di atas 0,20. bahkan angka indeks williamson nasional mencapai nilai di atas 1, yang menunjukan terjadi ketimpangan pembangunan yang sangat besar pada level nasional (lihat tabel 9). analisis sektor-sektor potensial secara rinci hasil analisis masing-masing sektor untuk masing-masing wilayah dari data pada tabel 10, sebagai berikut: kabupaten boalemo yang merupakan daerah yang relatif tertinggal memiliki tiga sektor unggulan, karena terdapat tiga sektor yang memiliki nilai lq lebih besar dari 1 (satu). adapun tiga sektor tersebut adalah sektor pertanian, sektor konstruksi dan sektor perdagangan, hotel dan restoran. artinya ketiga sektor tersebut tabel 9. nilai indeks williamson pulau sulawesi dan nasional tahun 2008-2012 wilayah 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 pulau sulawesi 0,20 0,21 0,21 0,21 0,21 nasional_provinsi 1,29 1,29 1,28 1,28 1,28 sumber: bappenas, kesenjangan antar wilayah 2013 disparitas pembangunan antarwilayah (murdiono, lilies setiartiti) 153 memiliki sumbangan terhadap pdrb kabupaten boalemo lebih besar dari sumbangan sektor yang sama terhadap pdrb provinsi gorontalo. hal ini menunjukan bahwa ketiga sektor unggulan tersebut berpotensi untuk dikembangkan untuk menunjang pertumbuhan ekonomi kakabupaten boalemo. komoditas pertanian unggulan di wilayah ini adalah jagung, tercatat luas panen pada tahun 2011 sebesar 39.727 ha. kelapa juga menjadi penyumbang sektor pertanian dengan produksi sebesar 6.977 ton. hasil hutan kabupaten boalemo juga besar, tercatat pada tahun 2012 produksi kayu bulat sebesar 2.597,50 m3 atau terbanyak kedua setelah kabupaten pohuwato. kabupaten gorontalo sebagai kabupaten tertua dengan penduduk terbanyak memiliki empat sektor unggulan, karena terdapat empat sektor yang memiliki nilai lq lebih besar dari 1 (satu). adapun keempat sektor unggulan tersebut adalah sektor pertambangan dan penggalian, sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi, sektor keuangan, real estate dan jasa perusahaan, dan sektor jasa-jasa. artinya sumbangan keempat sektor tersebut terhadap pdrb kabupaten gorontalo lebih besar dari sumbangan sektor yang sama terhadap pdrb provinsi gorontalo. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa keempat sektor unggulan tersebut berpotensi untuk dikembangkan di provinsi gorontalo untuk mendorong pertumbuhan ekonominya. tercatat jumlah perusahaan di kabupaten gorontalo pada tahun 2011 sebanyak 2.557 dengan total produksi 161.467.045.000 rupiah atau merupakan yang terbesar di provinsi gorontalo. sektor pertambangan dan penggalian tercatat luas areal tambang sebesar 63.657,56 ha. kabupaten pohuwato sebagai daerah dengan pdrb tertinggi memiliki tiga sektor unggulan, karena terdapat tiga sektor yang memiliki nilai lq lebih besar dari 1 (satu). adapun ketiga sektor unggulan tersebut adalah sektor pertanian, sektor konstruksi dan sektor perdagangan, hotel, dan restoran. artinya sumbangan ketiga sektor tersebut terhadap pdrb kabupaten pohuwato lebih besar dari sumbangan sektor yang sama terhadap pdrb provinsi gorontalo. dengan demikian ketiga sektor unggulan tersebut berpotensi untuk dikembangkan di kabupaten pohuwato untuk meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonominya. kabupaten pohuwato merupakan wilayah yang kaya akan sumber daya alam, khususnya sektor pertanian di mana tercatat dari beberapa hasil produksi sektor pertanian melebihi wilayah lainnya. tercatat luas panen jagung kabupaten pohuwato yang merupakan tanaman pangan unggulan provinsi gorontalo sebesar 63.806 ha, jauh di atas wilayah lainnya. produksi hasil perkebunan kelapa 16.635 ton dan kakao 2.166 ton. selain produksi jagung, kelapa dan kakao, kabupaten pohuwato juga merupakan wilayah dengan hasil produksi hutan terbesar. tercatat pada tahun 2012 produksi kayu bulat sebesar 2.782,84 m3 dan produksi hutan bukan kayu yang meliputi rotan 27.174.000 ton/ha, damar 3.000 kg/ha dan kemiri 200 kg/ha. kabupaten bone bolango yang merupakan daerah tertinggal dengan pdrb per kapita tabel 10. nilai rata-rata lq kabupaten/kota di provinsi gorontalo tahun 2008-2012 lapangan usaha boalemo gorontalo pohuwato bonbol gorut kota 1 1,30 0,95 1,50 1,04 1,81 0,17 2 0,52 1,11 0,62 1,23 2,70 0,73 3 0,63 1,00 0,85 1,75 0,79 1,06 4 0,67 0,51 0,96 0,45 0,73 2,26 5 1,24 0,71 1,06 1,14 0,49 1,35 6 1,02 0,61 1,12 0,67 1,06 1,58 7 0,48 1,38 0,35 0,90 0,44 1,54 8 0,83 1,02 0,77 1,36 0,76 1,19 9 0,97 1,32 0,64 0,67 0,28 1,29 keterangan: 1. pertanian; 2. pertambangan dan penggalian; 3. industri pengolahan; 4. listrik, gas dan air bersih; 5. konstruksi; 6. perdagangan, hotel dan restoran; 7. pengangkutan dan komunikasi; 8. keuangan, real estat dan jasa perusahaan; 9. jasajasa jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 2, oktober 2014: 144-160 154 terendah memiliki lima sektor unggulan, karena terdapat lima sektor yang memiliki nilai lq lebih besar dari 1 (satu). adapun kelima sektor unggulan tersebut adalah sektor pertanian, sektor pertambangan dan penggalian, sektor industri pengolahan, sektor konstruksi dan sektor keuangan, real estate, dan jasa perusahan. artinya sumbangan kelima sektor terhadap pdrb kabupaten bone bolango lebih besar dari sumbangan sektor yang sama terhadap pdrb provinsi gorontalo. dengan demikian kelima sektor tersebut merupakan sektor unggulan yang berpotensi dikembangkan untuk meningkatkan perekonomian kabupaten bone bolango. walaupun sektor pertanian menjadi sektor unggulan, namun tercatat luas panen pertanian merupakan yang terendah di atas kota gorontalo. tercatat pada tahun 2011 luas panen padi sawah sebesar 5.593 ha, jagung 4.456 ha, kelapa 4.817 ha. begitu pula sektor jasa perusahaan, meskipun unggulan namun tercatat dengan jumlah perusahaan terkecil setelah boalemo yakni 1.576 perusahaan dengan nilai produksi hanya 18.007.158.000 rupiah. kabupaten gorontalo utara sebagai wilayah yang berkembang cepat yang mekar dari kabupaten gorontalo memiliki tiga sektor unggulan, karena terdapat tiga sektor yang memiliki nilai lq lebih besar dari 1 (satu). adapun sektor-sektor unggulan tersebut adalah sektor pertanian, sektor pertambangan dan penggalian dan sektor perdagangan, hotel, dan restoran. artinya ketiga sektor tersebut memiliki kontribusi terhadap pdrb kabupaten gorontalo utara yang lebih besar dari kontribusi sektor yang sama terhadap total pdrb di provinsi gorontalo. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa ketiga sektor unggulan tersebut berpotensi untuk dikembangkan di kabupaten gorontalo utara guna meningkatkan perekonomiannya. sektor pertanian pada tahun 2011 tercatat luas panen lahan sawah 5.142 ha, jagung 7.570 ha, dan kelapa 5.560 ha. hasil produksi hutan non kayu tahun 2012 meliputi rotan 7.406.000 ton/ha, damar 250 ton/ha, dan kemiri 205 ton/ha. sektor pertambangan dan penggalian tercatat luas areal pertambangan sebesar 53.748,07 ha. kota gorontalo sebagai pusat pemerintahan dan perekonomian di provinsi gorontalo memiliki tujuh sektor unggulan, karena terdapat tujuh sektor yang memiliki nilai lq lebih besar dari 1 (satu). adapun sektor unggulan tersebut adalah sektor industri pengol ahan, sektor listrik, gas dan air bersih, sektor konstruksi, sektor perdagangan, hotel dan restoran, sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi, sektor keuangan, real estate dan jasa perusahaan dan sektor jasa-jasa. hal ini berarti ke tujuh sektor tersebut mempunyai kontribusi terhadap total pdrb kota gorontalo lebih besar dari kontribusi sektor yang sama terhadap total pdrb provinsi gorontalo. dengan demikian ketujuh sektor unggulan tersebut berpotensi untuk dikembangkan di kota gorontalo guna mendukung pertumbuhan ekonominya. sektor industri tercatat terdapat 2.842 perusahaan dengan nilai produksi sebesar 122.137.633.000 rupiah. di sisi sektor gas, listrik, dan air bersih tercatat air bersih disalurkan di kota gorontalo untuk sosial 892.824 m3, rumah tangga 4.341.591 m3, instansi pemerintah 195.493 m3, 457.765 m3. analisis sektor tumbuh cepat (mrp) jika dilihat dari nilai rps dari tabel 11 maka dapat kita simpulkan bahwasanya berdasarkan pertumbuhan, sektor-sektor potensial di semua kabupaten/kota relatif lebih banyak daripada berdasarkan kontribusinya (analisis lq). kabupaten boalemo sebagai wilayah yang relatif tertinggal memiliki tujuh sektor potensial, karena terdapat tujuh sektor yang bernilai positif (+) atau memiliki nilai rps lebih dari 1 (satu). adapun ketujuh sektor potensial tersebut adalah sektor pertambangan dan penggalian, sektor industri pengolahan, sektor listrik, gas dan air bersih, sektor konstruksi, sektor perdagangan, hotel dan restoran, sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi, sektor keuangan, real estate dan jasa perusahaan, dan sektor jasa-jasa. artinya pertumbuhan tujuh sektor tersebut di kabupaten boalemo lebih dari pertumbuhan sektor yang sama di provinsi gorontalo. kabupaten gorontalo sebagai wilayah yang tergolong berkembang cepat memiliki lima sektor potensial, karena terdapat lima sektor yang berslop positif (+) atau memiliki nilai rps lebih dari 1 (satu). adapun kelima sektor potensial tersebut adalah sektor pertambangan dan penggalian, sektor listrik, gas, dan air bersih, disparitas pembangunan antarwilayah (murdiono, lilies setiartiti) 155 sektor perdagangan, hotel dan restoran, sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi, dan sektor jasajasa. artinya pertumbuhan kelima sektor tersebut di kabupaten gorontalo lebih dari pertumbuhan sektor yang sama di provinsi gorontalo. kabupaten pohuwato sebagai wilayah yang maju dan berkembang memiliki empat sektor potensial, karena terdapat empat sektor yang bernilai positif (+) atau memiliki nilai rps lebih dari 1 (satu). adapun keempat sektor potensial tersebut adalah sektor pertanian, sektor industri pengolahan, sektor perdagangan, hotel dan restoran, dan sektor jasa-jasa. artinya pertumbuhan keempat sektor tersebut di kabupaten pohuwato lebih dari pertumbuhan sektor yang sama di provinsi gorontalo. kabupaten bone bolango sebagai wilayah yang relatif tertinggal hanya memiliki dua sektor potensial, karena terdapat dua sektor yang bernilai positif (+) atau memiliki nilai rps lebih dari 1 (satu). adapun kedua sektor potensial tersebut adalah sektor pertanian dan sektor keuangan, real estate dan jasa perusahaan. artinya pertumbuhan kedua sektor tersebut di kabupaten bone bolango lebih dari pertumbuhan sektor yang sama di provinsi gorontalo. kabupaten gorontalo utara sebagai wilayah yang berkembang cepat memiliki enam sektor potensial, karena terdapat enam sektor yang bernilai positif (+) atau memiliki nilai rps lebih dari 1 (satu). adapun keenam sektor potensial tersebut adalah sektor pertanian, sektor pertambangan dan penggalian, sektor listrik, gas dan air bersih, sektor konstruksi, sektor keuangan, real estate dan jasa perusahaan, dan sektor jasa-jasa. artinya pertumbuhan keenam sektor tersebut di kabupaten boalemo lebih dari pertumbuhan sektor yang sama di provinsi gorontalo. kota gorontalo sebagai wilayah yang maju dan berkembang cepat memiliki tiga sektor potensial, karena terdapat tiga sektor yang bernilai positif (+) atau memiliki nilai rps lebih dari 1 (satu). adapun ketiga sektor potensial tersebut adalah sektor industri pengolahan, sektor konstruksi, dan sektor keuangan, real estate dan jasa perusahaan. artinya pertumbuhan ketiga sektor tersebut di kota gorontalo lebih dari pertumbuhan sektor yang sama di provinsi gorontalo. analisis overlay analisis overlay dilakukan dengan menggabungkan hasil analisis lq dan analisis mrp. artinya dengan analisis overlay dapat dilihat sektor-sektor potensial suatu wilayah berdasarkan kontribusi dan pertumbuhan sektor tersebut. secara rinci hasil pengelompokan overlay kabupaten/kota di provinsi gorontalo disajikan pada tabel 12. kabupaten boalemo memiliki dua sektor yang potensial dari segi pertumbuhan dan kontribusinya, karena terdapat dua sektor yang lq dan rps nya ber-slop positif. adapun dua sektor tersebut adalah sektor kontruksi dan sektor perdagangan, hotel dan restoran. artinya pertumbuhan dan kontribusi kedua sektor tersebut terhadap pdrb total kabupaten boalemo lebih besar dari pertumbuhan dan kontribusi sektor yang sama di provinsi gorontalo. kabupaten gorontalo memiliki tiga sektor yang potensial baik dari pertumbuhan maupun tabel 11. nilai rps kabupaten/kota di provinsi gorontalo dari tahun 2008-2012 lapangan usaha boalemo gorontalo pohuwato bonbol gorut kota 1 0,60(-) 0,86(-) 1,17(+) 1,34(+) 1,32(+) 0,55(-) 2 1,54(+) 1,62(+) 0,99(-) 0,87(-) 1,10(+) 0,32(-) 3 1,03(+) 0,81(-) 1,43(+) 0,78(-) 0,67(-) 1,23(+) 4 1,88(+) 1,35(+) 0,72(-) 0,78(-) 1,17(+) 0,86(-) 5 1,18(+) 0,75(-) 0,59(-) 0,85(-) 4,54(+) 1,19(+) 6 1,43(+) 1,05(+) 1,08(+) 0,59(-) 0,77(-) 0,93(-) 7 1,14(+) 1,45(+) 0,45(-) 0,32(-) 0,26(-) 0,83(-) 8 1,26(+) 0,51(-) 0,91(-) 1,35(+) 1,26(+) 1,36(+) 9 0,91(-) 1,12(+) 1,44(+) 0,76(-) 1,23(+) 0,73(-) keterangan: 1. pertanian; 2. pertambangan dan penggalian; 3. industri pengolahan; 4. listrik, gas dan air bersih; 5. konstruksi; 6. perdagangan, hotel dan restoran; 7. pengangkutan dan komunikasi; 8. keuangan, real estat dan jasa perusahaan; 9. jasa-jasa jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 2, oktober 2014: 144-160 156 kontribusinya, karena terdapat tiga sektor yang lq dan rps nya ber-slop positif. adapun tiga sektor tersebut adalah sektor pertambangan dan penggalian, sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi dan sektor jasa-jasa. artinya pertumbuhan dan kontribusi ketiga sektor tersebut terhadap pdrb total kabupaten gorontalo lebih besar dari pertumbuhan dan kontribusi sektor yang sama di provinsi gorontalo. kabupaten pohuwato memiliki dua sektor yang potensial baik dari pertumbuhan maupun kontribusinya, karena terdapat dua sektor yang lq dan rps nya ber-slop positif. adapun dua sektor tersebut adalah sektor pertanian dan sektor perdagangan, hotel dan restoran. artinya pertumbuhan dan kontribusi kedua sektor tersebut terhadap pdrb total kabupaten pohuwato lebih besar dari pertumbuhan dan kontribusi sektor yang sama di provinsi gorontalo. kabupaten bone bolango memiliki dua sektor yang potensial baik dari pertumbuhan maupun kontribusinya, karena terdapat tiga sektor yang lq dan rps nya berslop positif. adapun dua sektor tersebut adalah sektor pertanian dan sektor keuangan, real estate dan jasa perusahaan. artinya pertumbuhan dan kontribusi kedua sektor tersebut terhadap pdrb total kabupaten bone bolango lebih besar dari pertumbuhan dan kontribusi sektor yang sama di provinsi gorontalo. kabupaten gorontalo utara memiliki dua sektor yang potensial baik dari pertumbuhan maupun kontribusinya, karena terdapat tiga sektor yang lq dan rps nya ber-slop positif. adapun dua sektor tersebut adalah sektor pertanian dan sektor pertambangan dan penggalian. artinya pertumbuhan dan kontribusi kedua sektor tersebut terhadap pdrb total kabupaten gorontalo utara lebih besar dari pertumbuhan dan kontribusi sektor yang sama di provinsi gorontalo. kota gorontalo memiliki tiga sektor yang potensial baik dari pertumbuhan maupun kontribusinya, karena terdapat tiga sektor yang lq dan rps nya ber-slop positif. adapun tiga sektor tersebut adalah sektor industri pengolahan, sektor konstruksi dan sektor keuangan, real estate dan jasa perusahaan. artinya pertumbuhan dan kontribusi ketiga sektor tersebut terhadap pdrb total kota gorontalo lebih besar dari pertumbuhan dan kontribusi sektor yang sama di provinsi gorontalo. simpulan berdasarkan analisis tipologi klassen wilayah-wilayah di provinsi gorontalo terbagi menjadi 3 (tiga) kuadran. kota gorontalo dan kabupaten pohuwato menempati kuadran i, atau merupakan wilayah dengan perekonomian terbaik dengan berstatus daerah maju dan cepat tumbuh, kabupaten gorontalo dan gorontalo utara merupakan wilayah yang cepat tumbuh, sedangkan wilayah dengan perekonomian terburuk atau berstatus wilayah yang relatif tertinggal adalah kabupaten boalemo dan kabupaten bone bolango. berdasarkan nilai indeks williamson, kondisi ketimpangan pembangunan di provinsi tabel 12. overlay kabupaten/kota di provinsi gorontalo tahun 2008-2012 lapangan usaha boalemo gorontalo pohuwato bonbol gorut kota lq rps lq rps lq rps lq rps lq rps lq rps 1 + + + + + + + 2 + + + + + + 3 + + + + + 4 + + + + 5 + + + + + + + 6 + + + + + + + 7 + + + + 8 + + + + + + + 9 + + + + + keterangan: 1. pertanian; 2. pertambangan dan penggalian; 3. industri pengolahan; 4. listrik, gas dan air bersih; 5. konstruksi; 6. perdagangan, hotel dan restoran; 7. pengangkutan dan komunikasi; 8. keuangan, real estate dan jasa perusahaan; 9. jasa-jasa disparitas pembangunan antarwilayah (murdiono, lilies setiartiti) 157 gorontalo tergolong rendah. meskipun ketimpangan pembangunan di provinsi gorontalo tergolong rendah namun selalu mengalami peningkatan (divergence) atau pelebaran. penurunan (convergence) ketimpangan hanya terjadi pada tahun 2010 dan naik kembali pada tahuntahun setelahnya. masing-masing wilayah di provinsi gorontalo memiliki beberapa sektor unggulan dan dominan yang ditinjau dari segi kontribusi dan pertumbuhannya yang dapat dikembangkan guna meningkatkan perekonomian di masingmasing wilayah, khususnya di wilayah yang relatif tertinggal. kabupaten boalemo memiliki 2 sektor potensial yakni sektor konstruksi dan sektor perdagangan, hotel dan restoran. kabupaten gorontalo memiliki 3 sektor potensial yakni sektor pertambangan dan penggalian, sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi dan sektor jasa-jasa. kabupaten pohuwato memiliki 2 sektor potensial yakni sektor pertanian dan sektor perdagangan, hotel dan restoran. kabupaten bone bolango memiliki 2 sektor potensial yakni sektor pertanian dan sektor keuangan, real estate dan jasa perusahaan. kabupaten gorontalo utara memiliki 2 sektor potensial yakni sektor pertanian dan sektor pertambangan dan penggalian. kota gorontalo memiliki 3 sektor potensial yakni sektor industri pengolahan, sektor konstruksi dan sektor keuangan, real estate dan jasa perusahaan. berdasarkan hasil penelitian terdapat beberapa implikasi kebijakan yaitu pemerintah daerah sebagai pemangku kebijakan pembangunan hendaknya mengarahkan pembangunan tidak hanya pada terciptanya pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tinggi, namun lebih berorientasi kepada pemerataan antarwilayah dan individu, sehingga fenomena ketimpangan pembangunan yang makin melebar dapat dieliminir. langkahlangkah yang dapat diambil pemerintah daerah demi terciptanya pemerataan antara lain adalah: modal investasi sebagai stimulus bergeraknya perekonomian tidak terpusat pada wilayah yang merupakan pusat pemerintahan dan perekonomian seperti kota gorontalo dan daerah yang kaya sda seperti kabupaten pohuwato, namun hendaknya dialirkan dan difokuskan kepada wilayah-wilayah yang masih tertinggal seperti kabupaten boalemo dan kabupaten bone bolango sehingga dapat meningkatkan perekonomian wilayah tersebut tanpa mengenyampingkan wilayah-wilayah yang cepat maju seperti kabupaten gorontalo dan kabupaten gorontalo utara. kemajuan aktivitas perekonomian juga ditentukan oleh kualitas sumber daya manusia sebagai pelaku ekonomi. oleh karena itu perlu adanya upaya perbaikan yang mendukung terciptanya sumber daya manusia yang berkualitas. perbaikan itu meliputi bidang pendidikan, kesehatan, keterampilan terutama pada wilayah yang tertinggal dan wilayah berkembang. terciptanya sumber daya manusia yang produktif akhirnya akan dapat menunjang pertumbuhan ekonomi serta mengurangi ketimpangan dan kemiskinan. ketersediaan infrastruktur yang layak pada seluruh wilayah khususnya wilayah yang tertinggal merupakan hal mutlak yang harus diupayakan pemerintah daerah untuk mendorong kemajuan perekonomian. kemudahan mengakses infrastruktur suatu wilayah dan masyarakat dapat meningkatkan kemampuan dalam mengakses sumber daya, informasi, teknologi dan modal yang merupakan faktor pendorong pertumbuhan. meratanya ketersediaan infrastruktur akan berdampak pada terciptanya pemerataan pembangunan. penyediaan infrastruktur pada setiap wilayah hendaknya disesuaikan pada potensi dan sektor unggulan sebuah wilayah sehingga dapat menunjang terpakainya potensi wilayah secara maksimal. sehingga dapat berimplikasi pada peningkatan pertumbuhan ekonominya. hendaknya potensi masing-masing wilayah yang ada di gorontalo di integrasikan, sehingga diharapkan peningkatan suatu sektor pada suatu wilayah dapat juga meningkatkan sektorsektor di wilayah lain. sebagai contoh sektor industri pengolahan yang merupakan keunggulan kota gorontalo hendaknya mempunyai korelasi positif terhadap sektor pertanian yang merupakan unggulan di wilayah lain. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 2, oktober 2014: 144-160 158 daftar pustaka basuki, a, t., 2009. analisis potensi unggulan kabupaten yapen dalam menopang pembangunan provinsi papua tahun 20042008. jurnal ekonomi, unisia, vol.xxxii no.7, yogyakarta. caska dan riadi,r.m., 2008. pertumbuhan dan ketimpangan pembangunan ekonomi antardaerah di provinsi riau. jurnal ekonomi. riau: fkip unri. muharrom, f., 2013. analisis tipologi wilayah berdasarkan pertumbuhan ekonomi, pendapatan per kapita, dan kesenjangan ekonomi di provinsi jawa timur. skripsi. jember: universitas jember. habibi, n., 2007. analisis ketimpangan pembangunan antardaerah kabupaten dan kota di sumatera utara. skripsi. medan: universitas sumatera utara. harefa, m,. 2010. kebijakan pembangunan dan kesenjangan ekonomi antarwilayah. jakarta: dpr ri. hudiyanto, 2001. kesenjangan dan ketimpangan. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan vol 2 no. 2 oktober 2001. helena, l, y. 2010. analisis pertumbuhan ekonomi dan ketimpangan regional provinsi d.i. yogyakarta 2003-2008. skripsi. yogyakarta: universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta. zulaechah, r. 2011. analisis pengembangan kota magelang sebagai pusat pertumbuhan kawasan purwomanggung jawa tengah. skripsi. semarang: universitas diponegoro. oktavilia, s. 2011. pengembangan potensi ekonomi lokal daerah tertinggal sebagai upaya mengatasi disparitas pendapatan antar daerah di provinsi jawa tengah. jurnal sosial, ekonomi dan humaniora, semarang: universitas negri semarang. yuliadi, i., 2011. kesenjangan investasi domestik dalam evaluasi kebijakan pemekaran wilayah. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan vol 12 no .1 april 2011. lampiran tabel 6. matriks tipologi klassen di provinsi gorontalo berdasarkan laju pertumbuhan ekonomi dan pdrb per kapita tahun 2008 y r yi > y yi < y ri > r daerah maju dan cepat tumbuh pohuwato dan kota gorontalo daerah berkembang cepat gorontalo dan boalemo ri < r daerah maju tetapi tertekan daerah relatif tertinggal bone bolango dan gorut disparitas pembangunan antarwilayah (murdiono, lilies setiartiti) 159 tabel 13. rekapitulasi analisis tipologi klassen, indeks williamson dan sektor potensial (lq, rps dan overlay) kab/kota tipologi daerah ketimpangan pembangunan antar wilayah ipm analisis sektoral unggulan (lq) tumbuh cepat (rps) unggulan dan tumbuh cepat (overlay) boalemo pada tahun 2008 kabupaten boalemo merupakan daerah berkembang cepat, namun pada tahun setelahnya menjadi wilayah yang relatif tertinggal pembangunan manusia kabupaten boalemomerupakan yang terburuk di provinsi gorontalo dengan nilai ipm sebesar 69,49 pada tahun 2012 sektor pertanian, sektor konstruksi dan sektor perdagangan, hotel dan restoran. sektor pertambangan dan penggalian, sektor industri pengolahan, sektor listrik, gas dan air bersih, sektor konstruksi, sektor perdagangan, hotel dan restoran, sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi, sektor keuangan, real estate dan jasa perusahaan, dan sektor jasa-jasa sektor konstruksi dan sektor perdagangan, hotel dan restoran gorontalo pada awal hingga akhir tahun penelitian (2008-2012) kabupaten gorontalo stagnan berada pada daerah yang berkembang cepat ketimpangan antarwilayah di provinsi gorontalo tergolong rendah dengan nilai iw rata rata 0,171. nilai iw dari tahun 2008-2012 berkisar 0,161 sampai 0,176 atau tergolong rendah. nilai iw mengalami kenaikan dari tahun ke tahunnya kecuali pada tahun 2010 yang mengalami penurunan sebesar 0,015, namun meningkat kembali pada tahun tahun berikutnya. indeks pembangunan manusia di kabupaten gorontalo adalah sebesar 71,12 atau berada di urutan ketiga berada dibawah kota gorontalo dan bone bolango sektor pertambangan dan penggalian, sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi, sektor keuangan, real estate dan jasa perusahaan dan sektor jasa-jasa. sektor pertambangan dan penggalian, sektor listrik, gas dan air bersih, sektor perdagangan, hotel dan restoran, sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi, dan sektor jasajasa sektor pertambangan dan penggalian, sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi dan sektor jasa-jasa jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 2, oktober 2014: 144-160 160 pohuwato kabupaten pohuwato merupakan wilayah yang statusnya berubah setiap tahunnya. kabupaten pohuwato berstatus daerah maju dan tumbuh cepat pada tahun 2008, 2010,2012, dan berstatus daerah maju tapi tertekan pada tahun 2009,2011. nilai indeks pembangunan manusia kabupaten pohuwato sebesar 70,79 atau berada diurutan ke-4 di provinsi gorontalo sektor pertanian, sektor konstruksi dan sektor perdagangan, hotel dan restoran. sektor pertanian, sektor industri pengolahan, sektor perdagangan, hotel dan restoran, dan sektor jasa-jasa sektor pertanian dan sektor perdagangan, hotel dan restoran. bone bolango kabupaten bone bolango dari awal hingga akhir tahun penelitian merupakan daerah yang relatif tertinggal. nilai indeks pembangunan manusia kabupaten bone bolango sebesar 72,65 atau merupakan kabupaten dengan ipm terbaik ke-2 setelah kota gorontalo sektor pertanian, sektor pertambangan dan penggalian, sektor industri pengolahan, sektor konstruksi dan sektor keuangan, real estate dan jasa perusahan. sektor pertanian dan sektor keuangan, real estate dan jasa perusahaan sektor pertanian dan sektor keuangan, real estate dan jasa perusahaan gorontalo utara pada tahun awal penelitian 2008 gorontalo utara merupakan daerah yang tertinggal, dan mengalami perbaikan pada tahun-tahun setelahnya menjadi daerah yang berkembang cepat nilai indeks pembangunan manusia kabupaten gorontalo utara sebesar 69,94 atau merupakan kabupaten dengan ipm terburuk ke-2 setelah kabupaten boalemo sektor pertanian, sektor pertambangan dan penggalian dan sektor perdagangan, hotel dan restoran sektor pertanian, sektor pertambangan dan penggalian, sektor listrik, gas dan air bersih, sektor konstruksi, sektor keuangan, real estate dan jasa perusahaan, dan sektor jasa-jasa sektor pertanian dan sektor pertambangan dan penggalian kota gorontalo dari tahun awal hingga tahun akhir penelitian, 2008-2012 merupakan daerah yang maju dan tumbuh cepat. nilai indeks pembangunan manusia kota gorontalo sebesar 74,17 atau merupakan wilayah dengan ipm terbaik di provinsi gorontalo sektor industri pengolahan, sektor listrik, gas dan air bersih, sektor kontruksi, sektor perdagangan, hotel dan restoran, sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi, sektor keuangan, real estat dan jasa perusahaan dan sektor jasa-jasa sektor industri pengolahan, sektor konstruksi, dan sektor keuangan, real estate dan jasa perusahaan sektor industri pengolahan, sektor konstruksi dan sektor keuangan, real estate dan jasa perusahaan jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 22 nomor 2, oktober 2021 article type: research paper fertility and female labor force participation in asian countries; panel ardl approach nawalin nazah*, jarita duasa, and muhammad irwan arifin abstract: fertility has a close relationship with female labor force participation and is predicted to be the prominent factor affecting female labor force participation in rich and emerging countries. the decline in fertility worldwide, accompanied by increased female education, is assumed to increase female labor force participation. the increase in the female labor force participation rate can improve economic incentives for the country. therefore, this study estimates the effect of fertility and female education on female labor force participation in cross-country panel datasets from 39 asian countries, using panel ardl analysis from 1990-2018. this study also examines the panel causality between the variables employing dumitrescu and hurlin’s (2012) granger non-causality test. according to the hausman test, among the three models in panel ardl, dfe is the preferred model compared to the pmg and mg. the results revealed that fertility was negatively significant on female labor participation in the short run but not in the long run. in contrast, female education was positively significant on female labor participation in the long run but not in the short run. meanwhile, the panel causality showed a bidirectional relationship between female labor participation and fertility, female labor participation and education, and fertility and female education. keywords: fertility; female labor force participation; panel ardl; panel causality; asian countries jel classification: c01, j11, j13, j22 introduction the relationship between female labor force participation (flfp) and total fertility rate (tfr) has received much attention in the demographic and economic literature. it has also been debated in different regions and development levels around the world. in this regard, the presence of children affects the mother’s activity, especially if the mother works a paid job. mothers with young children have traditionally been considered to have low labor force attachment. the female labor force participation will also affect family size decisions. thus, the discussion of female labor force participation cannot be separated from fertility as these two have a close relationship. generally, the female labor force participation level tends to be high in countries with low fertility rates (roser, 2014). affiliation: department of economics, faculty of economics and management sciences, international islamic university malaysia, malaysia *correspondence: nawalin12@gmail.com this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v22i2.11142 citation: nazah, n., duasa, j., & arifin, m.i. (2021). fertility and female labor force participation in asian countries; panel ardl approach. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 22(2), 272-288. article history received: 13 feb 2021 revised: 10 jul 2021 accepted: 14 sep 2021 https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorid=24471318100 https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=o5xipbqaaaaj&hl=en https://www.iium.edu.my/kulliyyah/kenms/department-of-economics https://www.iium.edu.my/kulliyyah/kenms/department-of-economics https://www.iium.edu.my/kulliyyah/kenms/department-of-economics https://www.iium.edu.my/kulliyyah/kenms/department-of-economics mailto:nawalin12@gmail.com http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/11142 https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v22i1.7836&domain=pdf https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v22i1.11142&domain=pdf nazah, duasa, & arifin fertility and female labor force participation … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 273 specifically, asia is the largest continent, with 60% of the world’s population. asia also has the fastest growing economy, with a nominal gdp of $31.58 trillion and a gdp per capita of $7,351 in 2019. asian wealth is mostly concentrated in east asia, such as japan, south korea, taiwan, hong kong, macau, and singapore. on the other hand, these countries are recorded as some of the countries with the lowest fertility in the world. thus, it becomes the reason for choosing asia as the study interest. despite becoming the fastest growing economy, female labor force participation in asia has remained low while female education has improved significantly and the fertility trends have shown a dramatic decline. the two conditions are assumed to increase the rate of female labor force participation. it is also the reason why asia is interesting to be investigated. in 2018, female labor force participation in asia ranged from 5.98% in yemen to 81.6% in nepal. some prominent constraints in increasing female labor force participation are social norms that emphasize women’s domestic responsibilities, limited mobility, restriction on the subset of jobs considered appropriate for women, and lack of access to information (asian development bank, 2016). some studies such as bloom et al. (2009) found a large negative effect of fertility on female labor force participation in 97 countries over 1960-2000, using abortion as an instrument and simulation variable. nakagaki (2018) applied fixed effect and a random effect to 176 countries and documented the correlation that moved from negative to positive by the 1990s in oecd countries, while in the asian-pacific region, no clear pattern was reported between female labor force participation and fertility rates. in the middle east and north africa (mena) countries, female labor force participation has continued to be lowest in the world as fertility decreased (lim, 2002) through analysis. even though these studies used a large panel data sample, they applied a different approach than this study. to the author’s knowledge, the investigation on how fertility and female education influence female labor participation by applying the dynamic panel ardl in the scope of asian countries has not been found. although the analysis of shittu and abdullah (2019) and subramanian et al. (2016) using panel ardl, it only covered asean-7 and asean-5 countries, respectively, which might not be enough for panel analysis and might lead to insufficient information. as for better results, the panel ardl requires a large number of observations (countries). thus, this study makes up for the shortcomings. therefore, the objective of this study is to investigate the effect of fertility and female education on female labor force participation in 39 asian countries between 1990-2018, using panel ardl analysis and panel causality. this study also attempts to address potential policies to reduce obstacles to achieving higher female labor force participation levels. moreover, this study provides more knowledge about asian countries, especially about fertility and female labor participation. the application of panel ardl has many advantages that have not been widely used for analyzing fertility studies. some advantages are that it provides alternative models, where the selection is based on the hausman test. meanwhile, the dfe estimation gives homogeneous coefficients for both long and short-run for all countries in the panel, while it contradicts the mg estimation with heterogeneous coefficients for all countries, for both short and long run, and allows nazah, duasa, & arifin fertility and female labor force participation … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 274 the combination of homogeneous coefficients and the heterogeneous slopes in the longrun and short-run, respectively, for pmg estimation. on the other hand, a dramatic decline in fertility leads to major changes in a population's age structure. lower fertility causes a decrease in the youth dependency ratio, thereby increasing output per capita. fertility reduction is expected to increase female labor market participation. females’ decisions to participate in the labor market are usually influenced by household factors, especially those who are married. working females will contribute to family income, but at the same time, will lesser time for childcare and household chores; consequently, it will reduce household benefits. cho (2006), using a dynamic lifecycle model, argued that having children significantly reduces women's market time. it discourages women's labor supply by reducing the effective wage rate since they hire babysitters while working. the number of women dropping out of the labor market when the children are young and need intensive care is higher than in other periods. however, this temporary dropout is hardly found in developed countries due to the availability of childcare facilities and family-friendly labor market policies. in the case of korea, the increase in the real wage of women was largely responsible for the growth of the female labor force. in addition, bloom et al. (2009) investigated that the strongest effect of fertility on female labor supply is during their fertile years and implies a reduction of about four years of paid work over a women’s lifetime for an additional child. meanwhile, tiefenthaler (1997) compared the effects of birth on time allocation across households for the case of cebu, the philippines, and found that at 14 months after birth, female labor market hours declined by 39% in the case of first birth. however, it was only 10% if there were already children aged 0–5 in the household, and it did not decrease if there were also children aged 6–17 in the household. del boca and locatelli (2006) observed a negative relationship between fertility and female labor force participation in several oecd countries in the 1970s; however, the correlation became positive in the late 1980s. in contrast, hupkau and leturcq (2017) found that the family size did not impact employment for high and intermediate-skilled women, while for low-skilled women, the effect was large and inversely correlated in the long run. moreover, aaronson et al. (2017) uncovered that the effect of fertility on labor supply was small at a low level of development and negative at a higher level of development. however, solomon and kimmel (2009) failed to support an inverse relationship between fertility and labor supply in the case of ethiopia, while abbas (2013) disclosed a positive relationship for the case of bangladesh and pakistan, and azimi (2015) found no effect in the case of iran. while some previous studies have focused on the consequences of fertility on female labor market participation due to the burden of childcare, mainly related to women, kim and aassve (2006) interestingly examined the effect of fertility on both males and females labor market in indonesia. they analyzed the different responses between male and female laborers in urban and rural areas. their results exposed that female laborers nazah, duasa, & arifin fertility and female labor force participation … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 275 reduced 1.1 working hours per week per increase of one birth in rural and urban areas, while only male laborers in rural areas were affected by increasing their 0.9 working hours per increase of one childbirth. this situation was mostly caused by the differences in childcare costs between urban and rural areas rather than employment reasons. the involvement of both males and females is supported by the economic theory that an increase in fertility is likely to change the optimal time allocation within the household, thereby influencing the labor supply and the earnings for both males and females (becker 1985). other than fertility, female education is also an essential factor contributing to female labor participation. an increase in female education has become a prominent factor in increasing female labor force participation, particularly in relatively high-paying jobs. it is because educated workers are a valuable resource for a country. education also provides better employment opportunities for women and hence raises their incomes. in many countries, the level of female education has increased substantially over the past decades, accompanied by a decline in the fertility rate. education raises women’s status both in society and within the family and increases productivity at home (becker, 1975) and workplace (schultz, 1961). women with higher levels of education are more likely to be active in the labor market. higher levels of educational attainment and declined fertility lead to increased female labor force participation rates. thus, education is an important factor that determines female labor force participation. in addition, anggaraini & setyari (2020) listed that knowledge, self-actualization, and the desire to achieve inner satisfaction are among the factors that driven women’s decision to work besides economic factors. moreover, working mothers have more power in decision making such as children's education. the study found that the relative income of working mothers significantly influences children’s human capital for the case of indonesia. this argument strengthens that education is an important factor for a female to participate in the paid work. skadsen (2017) stated that the average educational attainment for females significantly influenced female labor by using country-specific timing on contraceptive legislation. one-year additional education attainment is expected to increase the female labor participation rate by about 5.7% for 125 countries. several studies that found a positive influence of education on women’s labor supply are nam (1991), eun (2007), lim (2017), eckstein and lifshitz (2011), cameron et al. (2001), abbas (2013), hafeez and ahmed (2002), and chamlou et al. (2011). however, heath and jayachandran (2016) argued that increased education did not universally translate into a higher probability of working, as in the case of pakistan. moreover, andrabi et al. (2012) also showed that education did not increase labor force participation. hence, the causality of female labor participation and fertility is also investigated in this study to confirm whether there is a uni-directional, bi-directional, or no causal relationship. in addition, some studies have reported a unidirectional relationship between fertility rate and female labor participation, such as in narayan and smyth (2006) and mishra and smyth (2010). the causal relationship between fertility rate and female labor force participation does not necessarily exist; working women do not certainly have fewer children and having a small number of children does not always discourage maternal employment as found in taiwan (cheng, 1999). nazah, duasa, & arifin fertility and female labor force participation … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 276 research method data the data used in this study were retrieved from the world bank (2019) for data on fertility rate (tfr) and female labor force participation (flfp) from 1990-2018 in the form of an annual time series. meanwhile, female educational attainment, which is the average number of years of education received by people aged 25 and older, was taken from barro and lee (2013), barro and lee’s projection, and the singapore department of statistics. data education attainment was in the form of five-year frequency; therefore, the data were interpolated into yearly form following ulku (2004). meanwhile, data on female educational attainment for singapore was obtained from the singapore department of statistics in annual form. the countries involved in this study were indonesia, malaysia, the philippines, thailand, singapore, vietnam, cambodia, brunei, india, sri lanka, nepal, pakistan, bangladesh, china, japan, mongolia, south korea, turkey, myanmar, iran, iraq, yemen, saudi arabia, afghanistan, jordan, kazakhstan, united arab emirates, tajikistan, israel, laos, kyrgyzstan, kuwait, armenia, qatar, bahrain, cyprus, maldives, hong kong, and macau. panel ardl estimation before applying cointegration and causality tests, the stationary and integration level tests were first performed. for unit root, levin, lin & chu, im, pesaran, and shin, augmented dickey-fuller (adf), and phillips perron tests were applied to test stationarity data and confirm that no series exceeded the integration of order i(1). the cointegration test was then held to check that all variables were cointegrated as the required conditions before estimating the panel ardl. this study applied three cointegration tests: the kao, the pedroni, and the westerlund tests. the estimation of female labor force participation and fertility was conducted in a panel data framework using panel ardl analysis based on the use of three alternative estimators: the mean group estimator (mg), the pooled mean group estimator (pmg), and the dynamic fixed effects (dfe) estimator. this study employed annual panel data of the selected macroeconomic indicators from asian countries from 1990 to 2018. panel data analysis involves a combination of cross-section (n) and time series (t) observations for analysis. in this study, n= 39 (countries) and t= 29 (from 1990-2018). the panel ardl can simultaneously estimate the long-run and short-run parameters of the model yet avoid stationary data problems. moreover, it is not necessary to determine the order of integration between variables in advance. based on pesaran et al. (1999), the dynamic heterogeneous panel regression can be incorporated into the error-correction model using the autoregressive distributed lag ardl(p,q) technique, where p is the lag of the dependent variable and q is the lag of the independent variables. the optimal lag is selected based on the aic, which is more suitable and superior than other criteria in the case of a small sample lower than 60 crosssectional observations (liew, 2004). it is because aic minimizes the change of nazah, duasa, & arifin fertility and female labor force participation … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 277 underestimation while maximizing the change of recovering the true lag length. according to aic, the optimum lag for both dependent and independent variables is 4; however, having a lag of more than one will reduce the degree of freedom. besides, this study only had 29 years, which was not long enough to overextend the lag. therefore, the analyses in this study used a lag of one for both dependent and independent variables. it is supported by pesaran et al. (1999) and demetriades and hook law (2006), who stated that it is recommended to impose a common lag structure across countries under the limitation of the data. the generalized ardl (p,q,q,…q) model is specified as: 𝑦𝑖𝑡 = ∑ 𝜆𝑖𝑗 𝑝 𝑗=1 𝑦𝑖,𝑡−𝑗 + ∑ 𝛿𝑖𝑗 ′𝑞 𝑗=0 𝑋𝑖,𝑡−𝑗 + 𝜇𝑖 + 𝑖𝑡 (1) where 𝑡 = 1,2, … , 𝑇 and, 𝑖 = 1,2, … . 𝑁, where 𝑦𝑖𝑡 is the dependent variable (female labor force participation), xit is a k x 1 vector of explanatory variables (fertility rate and female education) allowed to be purely i(0) or i(1) or cointegrated. 𝜇𝑖 is the fixed effects, 𝜆𝑖𝑗 is the coefficient of the lagged dependent variable called a scalar. 𝛿𝑖𝑗 ′ is k x 1 coefficient vectors. p, q are optimal lag order, and 𝑖,𝑡 is the error term. the re-parameterized ardl (p,q,q,….q) error correction model is specified as: ∆𝑦𝑖𝑡 = 𝜙𝑖 𝑦𝑖,𝑡−1 + 𝛽𝑖 ′ 𝑋𝑖,𝑡 + ∑ 𝜆𝑖𝑗 ∗ ∆𝑦𝑖,𝑡−𝑗 𝑝−1 𝑗=1 + ∑ 𝛿𝑖𝑗 ∗′∆𝑋𝑖,𝑡−𝑗 𝑞−1 𝑗=0 + 𝜇𝑖 + 𝑖𝑡 (2a) where y is the total fertility rate, and x is a set of independent variables. 𝑖 = 1,2, … , 𝑁 and 𝑡 = 1,2, … , 𝑇 where 𝜙𝑖 = −(1 − ∑ λ𝑖𝑗 𝑝 𝑗=1 ), 𝛽𝑖 = ∑ 𝛿𝑖𝑗 𝑞 𝑗=0 , 𝜆𝑖𝑗 ∗ = − ∑ λ𝑖𝑚 𝑝 𝑚=𝑗+1 , 𝑗 = 1,2, … , 𝑝 − 1 and 𝛿𝑖𝑗 ∗ = − ∑ 𝛿𝑖𝑚 𝑞 𝑚=𝑗+1 , 𝑗 = 1,2, … , 𝑞 − 1 if there are t observations for each group, equation (3.2) can be written as: ∆𝑦𝑖 = 𝜙𝑖 𝑦𝑖,−1 + 𝑋𝑖 𝛽𝑖 + ∑ 𝜆𝑖𝑗 ∗ ∆𝑦𝑖,−𝑗 + ∑ ∆𝑋𝑖,−𝑗 𝛿𝑖𝑗 ∗ + 𝜇𝑖 𝑙 + 𝑖 𝑞−1 𝑗=0 𝑝−1 𝑗=1 (2b) 𝑖 = 1,2, … . , 𝑁 , and 𝑦𝑖 = (𝑦𝑖1, … . . 𝑦𝑖𝑇) ′ is a 𝑇𝑥1 vector of the observation on the dependent variable of the ith group, 𝑋𝑖 = (𝑥𝑖1, … . . 𝑥𝑖𝑇) ′ is a 𝑇𝑥𝑘 matrix of observations on the regressors that vary both cross groups and periods, 𝑙 = (1, … .1)′ is a 𝑇𝑥1 vector of 1s, 𝑦𝑖,−𝑗 and 𝑋𝑖,−𝑗 is j period lagged values of 𝑦𝑖 and 𝑋𝑖 and ∆𝑦𝑖 = 𝑦𝑖 − 𝑦𝑖−1, ∆𝑋𝑖 = 𝑋𝑖 − 𝑋𝑖,−1, ∆𝑦𝑖 and ∆𝑋𝑖,−𝑗 are j period lagged values of ∆𝑦𝑖 and ∆𝑋𝑖 and 𝑖 = ( 𝑖1, … . 𝑖𝑇 ) ′. pesaran et al. (1999) asserted that panel ardl could be used with variables with a different order of integration; the short-run and long-run effects can be estimated simultaneously from a data set with cross-section and time dimensions. the ardl model nazah, duasa, & arifin fertility and female labor force participation … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 278 also produces consistent coefficients despite the possibility of endogeneity because it includes the lags of dependent and independent variables (pesaran et al., 1999). the key features of the three different panel ardl estimators are presented as follows. pooled mead group (pmg) the salient feature of pmg is that it allows the short-run coefficients, including the intercepts, the speed of adjustment, and the error variances, to be heterogeneous between countries, while in the long-run coefficients, it is homogenous across countries. however, there are several requirements for the validity, consistency, and efficiency of this methodology. 1. first, the existence of a long-run relationship between the variables of interest requires the coefficient on the error-correction term to be negative. 2. an important assumption for the consistency of the ardl model is that the residuals resulting from the error-correction model are serially uncorrelated, and the explanatory variables can be treated as exogenous. 3. the relative size of t and n is crucial since when both are large, it allows the researchers to use the dynamic panel technique, which helps avoid bias in the mean estimators and resolves the heterogeneity issue. mean group (mg) the mean group estimates separate regression for each country, both for the long-run and short-run, and the coefficients are calculated as unweighted means of the estimated coefficients for each country. thus, it allows all coefficients to be heterogeneous in the long-run and short-run. however, this method needs to have a sufficiently large time series (t) and cross country (n), covering 20 to 30 countries to keep the results' consistency and validity. dynamic fixed effect (dfe) the dynamic fixed effect estimator restricts the coefficients of the cointegrating vector to be equal across all panels. it also limits the speed of the adjustment coefficients and the short-run coefficients to be identical for all countries. however, it allows for countryspecific intercepts. model selection to select the best models among the pmg, mg, and dfe estimators, the hausman test was employed to test whether there was a significant difference among these estimators. the test's null hypothesis is no significant difference between pmg and mg or between pmg and dfe. if the probability value is less than 0.05, the decision is to reject the null hypothesis. if the null hypothesis is not rejected, the pmg estimator is preferred. nazah, duasa, & arifin fertility and female labor force participation … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 279 panel granger causality test to investigate the direction of causality between fertility and female labor force participation, dumitrescu and hurlin granger's non-causality test was applied. the equations are written as follow: 𝐹𝐿𝐹𝑃𝑡 = 𝛼𝑜1 + ∑ 𝛽1𝑖 𝑝 𝑖=1 𝐹𝐿𝐹𝑃𝑡−𝑖 + ∑ 𝛽2𝑖 𝑞 𝑖=1 𝑇𝐹𝑅𝑡−𝑖 +𝑢1𝑡 2c 𝑇𝐹𝑅𝑡 = 𝛼𝑜2 + ∑ 𝛿1𝑖 𝑝 𝑖=1 𝑇𝐹𝑅𝑡−𝑖 + ∑ 𝛿2𝑖 𝑞 𝑖=1 𝐹𝐿𝐹𝑃𝑡−𝑖 +𝑢2𝑡 2d 𝐹𝐿𝐹𝑃𝑡 = 𝛼𝑜3 + ∑ ɵ1𝑖 𝑝 𝑖=1 𝐹𝐿𝐹𝑃𝑡−𝑖 + ∑ ɵ2𝑖 𝑞 𝑖=1 𝐹𝐸𝐷𝑈𝑡−𝑖 +𝑢3𝑡 2e 𝐹𝐸𝐷𝑈𝑡 = 𝛼𝑜4 + ∑ ɸ1𝑖 𝑝 𝑖=1 𝐹𝐸𝐷𝑈𝑡−𝑖 + ∑ ɸ2𝑖 𝑞 𝑖=1 𝐹𝐿𝐹𝑃𝑡−𝑖 +𝑢4𝑡 2f 𝐹𝐸𝐷𝑈𝑡 = 𝛼𝑜5 + ∑ ɤ1𝑖 𝑝 𝑖=1 𝐹𝐸𝐷𝑈𝑡−𝑖 + ∑ ɤ2𝑖 𝑞 𝑖=1 𝑇𝐹𝑅𝑡−𝑖 +𝑢5𝑡 2g 𝑇𝐹𝑅𝑡 = 𝛼𝑜6 + ∑ µ1𝑖 𝑝 𝑖=1 𝑇𝐹𝑅𝑡−𝑖 + ∑ µ2𝑖 𝑞 𝑖=1 𝐹𝐸𝐷𝑈𝑡−𝑖 +𝑢6𝑡 2h if the coefficient of the lagged fertility (tfr) in (2c) 𝛽2𝑖 is significantly different from zero, and the set of estimated coefficients of lagged female labor (flfp) in (2d) 𝛿2𝑖 is not significantly different from zero, it means there is uni-directional causality from fertility to female labor and vice versa. if both coefficient 𝛽2𝑖 and 𝛿2𝑖 are significantly different from zero; thus, flfp and tfr perform bi-direction causality. if both coefficient 𝛽2𝑖 and 𝛿2𝑖 are not significantly different from zero; thus, flfp and tfr are independent. a similar interpretation for the equations (2e) and (2f) is for female labor-female education, and equations (2g) and (2h) are for female education-fertility. result and discussion the effect of fertility on female labor force participation was evaluated in this section using panel ardl methods. besides, female education was included as the explanatory variable. the descriptive statistic and correlation coefficients for the estimated variables are in table 1 and table 2. descriptive statistics female labor participation ranged from the lowest of almost 6 % for yemen in 2018 to 82 % for nepal in 2018. the tfr was 0.86 for the lowest in macau in 2003, and the highest was in yemen at 8.6 children per woman in 1990. for female education, the number started at 0.1 years in yemen in 1990, and the highest was 13.6 years in south korea in 2018. nazah, duasa, & arifin fertility and female labor force participation … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 280 table 1 descriptive statistics variable obs mean std. dev. min max flfpr 1.131 45.61963 18.81566 5.983 81.841 tfr 1.131 2.840403 1.357057 0.86 8.606 f_edu 1.131 6.641326 3.197232 0.1 13.6 table 2 correlation coefficients flfpr tfr f-edu flfpr 1 tfr -0.3626 1 f-edu 0.1214 -0.5894 1 table 2 shows the correlation between variables, and it can be seen that fertility and female labor force participation had a negative correlation, likewise for fertility and female education. meanwhile, there was a positive correlation between female education and female labor participation. panel unit root test table 3 displays the unit root test of the variables involved. fertility was stationary, while female labor force participation and female education were stationary at first. the stationary test was held to ensure that there was no second-order integration. due to mixed levels of integration between the series, the study thus proceeded to apply the panel ardl approach rather than the traditional static panel model. table 3 unit root test variable level llc lm, ps adf pp tfr level -16.396*** (0.000) -12.879*** (0.000) 388.592*** (0.000) 398.534*** (0.000) flpr level -3.0748*** (0.0011) 0.64297 (0.7399) 92.7915 (0.1211) 90.2375 (0.1622) flpr 1st diff -8.2161*** (0.0000) -12.020*** (0.0000) 327.055*** (0.0000) 361.541*** (0.0000) f-edu level -3.3188*** (0.0005) 3.24314 (0.9994) 62.3638 (0.9019) 83.4584 (0.3155) f-edu 1st diff -6.9218*** (0.0000) -4.2056*** (0.0000) 199.381*** (0.0000) 407.995*** (0.0000) source: author’s calculations using eviews and stata. numbers between parentheses refer to the probability of the test statistics. the null hypothesis of these tests is that the panel series has a unit root. notes: *, **, and *** indicate significance at 10 %, at 5 %, and at 1 %. panel cointegration test panel cointegration tests were performed to ensure that the variables were cointegrated before running the panel ardl estimation and panel causality tests. according to the pedroni (1999) and kao (1999) tests, the probabilities showed significance at a one percent level, while the probability was insignificant for the westerlund test. saying that nazah, duasa, & arifin fertility and female labor force participation … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 281 two among three tests were cointegrated, it can be concluded that there was cointegration among the model variables. table 4 cointegration test pedroni test kao test westerlund test modified phillips-perron t 3.9002*** (0.0000) modified dickeyfuller t 3.5141*** (0.0002) variance ratio -0.3640 (0.3579) phillips-perron t 2.5475*** (0.0054) dickey-fuller t 3.0211*** (0.0013) augmented dickey-fuller t 3.5278*** (0.0002) augmented dickeyfuller t 2.5997*** (0.0047) unadjusted modified dickey-fuller t 3.9957*** (0.0000) unadjusted dickeyfuller t 3.7152*** (0.0001) source: author’s calculations using stata. numbers between parentheses refer to the probability of the test statistics. the null hypothesis of these tests is that there is no cointegration. notes: *, **, and *** indicate significance at 10 %, at 5 %, and at 1 %. panel ardl estimation according to table 5, between pmg and mg model, the hausman test result showed that the p-value (the number in the parentheses) was 0.0359, less than 0.05. under the null hypothesis that pmg is more efficient, the null hypothesis was rejected; thus, mg was a consistent and efficient estimation than pmg. for the second hausman test, comparing pmg and dfe, the p-value was 0.000, giving the consequence that dfe was a better estimation than pmg under the null hypothesis that pmg is more efficient. for the third hausman test comparing mg and dfe, the probability was 0.7249; thus, it failed to reject the null hypothesis. in other words, dfe was a better estimation than mg, under the null hypothesis that dfe is more efficient than mg. hence, it can be concluded that among the three models, dfe was the best estimation. the ect or the speed of convergence to equilibrium was significant at a one percent level, indicating long-run cointegration among the variables in the panel. any deviations from long-run equilibrium were corrected at 3.27% adjustment speed. therefore, the result interpretation referred to the dfe as the best estimation according to the hausman test. once again, the dfe estimation restricts the coefficients of the cointegrating vector to be homogeneous across all panels and limits the speed of adjustment coefficients and the short-run coefficients to be identical for all countries. in the long run, the fertility coefficient was negative, yet it was not significant. fertility did not significantly affect female labor force participation in the long run. it might be due to the flexibility of job roles, such as maternity leave; after mothers deliver a baby within a certain period, they will return to continue their work. azimi (2015) supports the finding whereby no effect of fertility on female employment in the case of iran. hupkau and leturcq (2016) also found that family size did not impact employment for highand intermediate-skilled women, but the effect was large and inversely correlated in the long run for low-skilled women. nazah, duasa, & arifin fertility and female labor force participation … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 282 table 5 panel ardl estimation d.lflpr pooled mean group mean group dynamic fixed effect coefficient std. err coefficient std. err coefficient std. err lr tfr 2.615547*** 0.251522 -8.0487 7.449 -0.5334 1.47127 f-edu 2.567861*** 0.25364 -0.2715 2.449 1.3533* 0.724538 sr ect -0.0343* 0.018729 0.2105*** 0.0298 0.0327*** 0.007495 δ tfr 0.451256 1.314491 4.7147 3.1283 0.83955** 0.400212 δ f-edu 0.063444 0.135565 0.0290 0.852 0.029524 0.048539 intercept 1.162044* 0.617529 8.9529 1.9109*** 1.3437*** 0.432417 hausman test 6.651 (0.0359) 38.122 (0.0000) 0.643 (0.7249) pmg, mg >> mg pmg, dfe >> dfe mg, dfe >> dfe notes: *, **, and *** indicate significance at 10 %, at 5 %, and at 1 %. estimations are done by using xtpmg in stata. the pooled mean group, mean group, and dynamic fixed effects control country and time effects. while the first panel (lr) shows long-run effects, the second panel reports both short-run effects (sr) and the speed of adjustment (ect). the lag structure is ardl (1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1). the data are from 1990–2018. another reason is the availability of childcare services that provide facilities and services to care for babies, thus enabling mothers to do works. this condition is easily found in developed countries, such as south korea, singapore, and japan (cho, 2006). besides, family-friendly labor market policies also contribute to the convenience and ease of working mothers while having small children at home. hence, the presence of children does not affect female labor participation in the long run. meanwhile, in the short run, fertility was negatively significant at a five percent level. the fertility coefficient can be interpreted that one unit of fertility rate for each increase will reduce the percentage of female labor force participation by 0.84. this result aligns with the expectation that any increase in fertility will reduce female labor participation and is supported by the studies of tsani et al. (2013) and mishra and smyth (2010). the presence of children discourages women from taking part in the labor force, especially if the husband earns a high income that can meet all the family’s needs. according to chevalier and viitanen (2002), the negative relationship was also motivated by the lack of childcare facilities, which could constrain women to participate in labor. furthermore, social culture or religion may also contribute to the limitation of women for only doing domestic activities and taking care of their children. shittu and abdullah (2019) considered that this condition similarly happened in the past period in malaysia, brunei, myanmar, and indonesia, in which most of the population is muslim. it is believed that in islam, the wife’s priority role is to do domestic activities, such as taking care of their children. in addition, lower fertility rates free up time for married women, thereby encouraging them to enter the labor force. as women increasingly participate in the labor market, their opportunity cost for having children raises. for this reason, they tend to have fewer children. nazah, duasa, & arifin fertility and female labor force participation … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 283 furthermore, female education was significantly positive on female labor force participation at a ten percent level in the long run. the coefficient explains that any additional one year of female education attainment will significantly increase the female labor participation rate by 1.35. the finding supports the expectation that education plays a crucial role in determining female participation in economic activities. as the education level of females increases, the woman starts to get more share in the labor force. in this case, education raises job opportunities, including for females. in this study, female education was significant in increasing the welfare of societies and families because it raised women's productivity through labor market participation. here, education provides the basic skill to empower females and enhances women’s status in society. the female probability of participating in economic activities is higher as the level of education increases. educated women also encourage more on children’s education hence producing a good future generation. in the short run, however, the effect of female education on female labor participation was not significant. the impact of any improvement in education could not immediately change the participation of females in the labor market. nevertheless, it took a certain period to be translated into skills, and human capital improvement from education is an investment in human capital. it is reinforced by becker’s (1964) human capital theory, stating that education is an investment due to the expected return in the future. according to the asian development bank (2016), female labor force participation does not necessarily increase with education; narrowing education gaps is insufficient to bring more women into work. the phenomena can be seen in some countries in asia. for example, in china, more educated women are less likely to work. meanwhile, in pakistan, women with intermediate education are less likely to work than women with low or advanced education. in indonesia, diagnostics suggest a higher demand for educated and skilled female workers, particularly in urban areas. in china, in rural areas, both male and female labor force participation rates decrease with educational attainment, though more steeply for women. however, in urban areas, participation rises with educational attainment, particularly for women. causality fertility-female labor to investigate the causal relationship between female labor force participation and fertility rate, the study applied the causality test by dumitrescu and hurlin (2012) to test granger causality in panel datasets. as presented in table 6, under the null hypothesis that fertility does not granger-cause female labor participation, the results showed that the null hypothesis was rejected at a one percent level, indicating that fertility caused female labor participation. besides, for the second null hypothesis, stating that female labor participation does not granger-cause fertility, the results revealed rejection of the null hypothesis as the probability value was significant at one percent level. thus, there was a consistency of a bidirectional relationship between female labor force participation and fertility. in other words, fertility is both a trigger and a consequence of female labor force participation. bi-direction relationships between female labor participation and fertility were also found in the study done by engelhardt et al. (2004) in the case of france, nazah, duasa, & arifin fertility and female labor force participation … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 284 italy, west germany, and the united kingdom for 1960-1994. a more recent study conducted by subramanian et al. (2016) similarly revealed bidirectional causality between fertility and female labor participation for the case of asean-5 countries. other supporting findings of the bi-directional relationship could be found in mishra and smyth (2010) for oecd countries and salamaliki et al. (2012) for the case of the united states. table 6 dumitrescu & hurlin’s (2012) granger non-causality test null hypothesis statistic p-value tfr does not granger-cause flfpr w-bar = 5.0853 z-bar = 18.0404 z-bar tilde = 15.1947 0.0000 0.0000 flfpr does not granger-cause tfr w-bar = 12.4924 z-bar = 50.7489 z-bar tilde = 43.3431 0.0000 0.0000 f_edu does not granger-cause flfpr w-bar = 3.1543 z-bar = 9.5131 z-bar tilde = 7.8564 0.0000 0.0000 flfpr does not granger-cause f_edu w-bar = 3.4503 z-bar = 10.8201 z-bar tilde = 8.9811 0.0000 0.0000 f_edu does not granger-cause tfr w-bar = 8.8850 z-bar = 34.8192 z-bar tilde = 29.6343 0.0000 0.0000 tfr does not granger-cause f_edu w-bar = 2.5728 z-bar = 6.9452 z-bar tilde = 5.6464 0.0000 0.0000 source: author’s calculation using xtgcause in stata in this study, a bi-direction relationship also exists between female labor participation and female education and between fertility and female education, as shown by the probability value being significant at one percent level. hence, it can be concluded that female education is both the cause and the consequence of female labor participation and fertility. conclusion the study investigates the relationship between fertility, female education, and female labor participation and concludes that fertility and female education significantly impacted female labor force participation in asian countries based on panel ardl estimation. meanwhile, fertility was negatively significant in the short run; however, female education was positively significant in the long run. in this regard, female participation in the labor market plays a pivotal role in advancing the countries' economies. thus, it needs appropriate policies to be taken to encourage women to participate in the labor force. to enhance women's participation in the labor force, the government should have policies to reduce fertility rates, such as promoting the familyplanning program by encouraging contraceptives, increasing the quality of maternal and child health, and reducing child mortality. the policies to reduce fertility, especially for nazah, duasa, & arifin fertility and female labor force participation … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 285 those countries with high fertility, are mostly for emerging countries. however, for low fertility countries, the government needs to encourage fertility to prevent labor shortages in the future. the provision of childcare facilities and services and family-friendly working policies can be addressed to motivate women to participate in the labor market regardless of the presence of children. moreover, increasing female education is crucial since females are more likely to participate in economic and business activities as the education level increases. females with education have more opportunities to get better jobs and have more options to select jobs. even though mothers work from home while taking care of their children, educated women have higher possibilities to earn more income. some recommendations for future research are that studies can be made into groups based on income, such as high-income countries and low-income countries. another suggestion for classification can also be based on low-fertility and high-fertility rate countries to see the comparison. references aaronson, d., dehejia, r., jordan, a., pop-eleches, c., samii, c., & schulze, k. 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(2004). r&d, innovation, and economic growth: an empirical analysis. international monetary fund working papers, wp/04/185, pp. 2-35. retrieved from https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=ulku,%20h.%20.%20rd,%20innovation,%2 0and%20economic%20growth:%20an%20empirical%20analysis,%20international %20monetary%20fund%20working%20papers,%20wp04185,%20pp.%202-35 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2013.04.043 https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=ulku,%20h.%20.%20rd,%20innovation,%20and%20economic%20growth:%20an%20empirical%20analysis,%20international%20monetary%20fund%20working%20papers,%20wp04185,%20pp.%202-35 https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=ulku,%20h.%20.%20rd,%20innovation,%20and%20economic%20growth:%20an%20empirical%20analysis,%20international%20monetary%20fund%20working%20papers,%20wp04185,%20pp.%202-35 https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=ulku,%20h.%20.%20rd,%20innovation,%20and%20economic%20growth:%20an%20empirical%20analysis,%20international%20monetary%20fund%20working%20papers,%20wp04185,%20pp.%202-35 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 22 nomor 2, oktober 2021 article type: research paper infrastructure, gross regional domestic product, and convergence of human development index joko susanto abstract: due to a disparity in human development index (hdi) among regencies and cities in special region of yogyakarta, this study aimed to examine whether hdi convergence occurred in this province. the data were sourced from the statistics of special region of yogyakarta, including hdi, infrastructure, and gross regional domestic product in four regencies and one city from 2001 to 2019. the infrastructure consists of installed electricity, education, and health facilities. the results showed an absence of hdi convergence between regions in the special region of yogyakarta. furthermore, hdi growth in the impoverished region was slower than in leading ones, resulting in a gap. the infrastructure gap made the impoverished region unable to catch up with leading ones, causing an hdi divergence. in contrast, gross regional domestic product (grdp) has no impact on hdi. therefore, the government needs to improve infrastructure in disadvantaged areas to increase hdi. keywords: human development index; convergence; infrastructure jel classification: j08; o21; r11 introduction convergence discussions are increasingly attractive because many developing countries worsen, while some states experience high economic growth (islam, 2003). emerging countries struggle with income disparity, yet economic development that focuses on macroeconomic growth overlooks the huge regional disparities (postoiu & bușega, 2015). consequently, income inequality emerges due to disparities in resource ownership. one contributing factor to economic growth is resources, which are acquired and used easily when sufficiently distributed in a region. the neo-classical growth theory states that the income disparity between regions declines with economic development. this means that a poor area's growth is faster than that of a wealthy location (barro & sala-i-martin, 2004). the poorer regions could catch up to the richer regions' per capita income, resulting in income convergence and steady-state conditions when the returns to scale are constant. regional economic growth differences due to technological diversity diminish due to the free movement of capital and labor between areas. affiliation: department of economics, faculty of economics and business, universitas pembangunan nasional "veteran" yogyakarta, special region of yogyakarta, indonesia *correspondence: jk.susanto.68@gmail.com this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v22i2.7619 citation: susanto, j. (2021). infrastructure, gross regional domestic product, and convergence of human development index. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 22(2), 244-255. article history received: 29 nov 2019 revised: 11 aug 2021 17 sep 2021 accepted: 20 sep 2021 https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?user=vuaielaaaaaj&hl=en https://ekonomi.upnyk.ac.id/prodi-29-sekilas-pandang-prodi-ilmu-ekonomi.html https://ekonomi.upnyk.ac.id/prodi-29-sekilas-pandang-prodi-ilmu-ekonomi.html https://ekonomi.upnyk.ac.id/prodi-29-sekilas-pandang-prodi-ilmu-ekonomi.html https://ekonomi.upnyk.ac.id/prodi-29-sekilas-pandang-prodi-ilmu-ekonomi.html https://ekonomi.upnyk.ac.id/prodi-29-sekilas-pandang-prodi-ilmu-ekonomi.html https://ekonomi.upnyk.ac.id/prodi-29-sekilas-pandang-prodi-ilmu-ekonomi.html mailto:jk.susanto.68@gmail.com http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/7619 https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v22i1.7836&domain=pdf https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v22i1.7619&domain=pdf susanto infrastructure, gross regional domestic product … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 245 inter-regional inequality covers income (gyawali et al., 2008; hammond, 2006), labor productivity (cette et al., 2018; pouvelle & mitra, 2012; udjianto et al., 2018), and hdi imbalance (erdal et al., 2006; singh & sharma, 2017). hammond (2006) stated that the medium-sized metropolitan regions tend to converge, while non-metropolitan areas diverge. in line with this, gyawali et al. (2008) analyzed income convergence for rural and suburban areas. the result showed that the rapid growth of the rural and poor sub-urban areas makes poor regions catch up with the rich ones. a previous study in bulgaria found that labor productivity has increased and converged with the european union (pouvelle & mitra, 2012). similarly, according to cette et al. (2018), the productivity gap between businesses has shrunk, indicating a convergence. udjianto et al. (2018) found a propensity for labor productivity convergence among districts in gunungkidul regency. specifically, labor productivity in disadvantaged areas rises faster than in wealthy areas. as a result, this reduced the disparity in labor productivity between districts. moreover, erdal et al. (2006) showed a convergence trend in education and per capita income, the two factors influencing the human development index (hdi). therefore, convergence in education and per capita income leads to convergence in hdi. the hdi is a summary measure of average accomplishment in human development, such as a long, healthy, and decent life and being knowledgeable. life expectancy at birth is used to calculate the health dimension. similarly, the knowledge dimension is measured through indicators of average school length and duration. the expenditure dimension (decent living standard) is shown by per capita expenditure, while higher hdi reflects improved welfare as a development indicator. therefore, the hdi is increased by improving these three dimensions. the community's health and knowledge increase when health infrastructure and education are developed. furthermore, better health and knowledge increase economic growth, per capita income, and expenditure, improving living standards. a regional hdi disparity is caused by the concentration of investment in specific areas indicated by excellent physical infrastructure. the term "infrastructure" refers to basic structures and procedures that facilitate businesses. they include physical and nonphysical infrastructure, such as main railways, roads, canals, harbors, public health, education, and the social system. the excellent infrastructure encourages higher efficiency returns for investors, encouraging them to invest in the leading region (chakravorty, 2003). in this regard, cities with good facilities are new investment destinations for companies seeking to build factories to lower production costs for more competitive products. therefore, there is a close correlation between investment and infrastructure. investment is attracted to places close to markets or ports, besides infrastructure. large companies choose an area in big cities with many consumers to minimize transportation costs. therefore, regions with insufficient investment experience difficulty boosting economic growth due to a smaller output than their potential. consequently, the lower output indicates a lower value-added and community income that cannot increase per susanto infrastructure, gross regional domestic product … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 246 capita expenditure to improve living standards. therefore, government support is needed to increase income in impoverished regions. for this reason, access to markets through infrastructure improvements is an essential determinant to raise firm productivity (lall et al., 2004). the infrastructure could be physical, such as electricity, drinking water, transportation, telecommunications, or social, including education, training, and health. the excellent infrastructure reduces production costs and creates higher productivity. therefore, infrastructure development is critical in boosting national economic growth because transportation is the backbone of goods and passenger mobility. facilities such as electricity and telecommunications are related to the nation's modernization efforts, meaning that their provision is critical in increasing labor productivity. an area’s economic progress is determined by energy availability, an essential component in all economic activities. energy is input in economic development to complement other inputs such as capital, labor, and raw material. therefore, it is a crucial input for supporting economic growth and living standards. in line with this, stern (2011) emphasized the importance of analyzing the alteration effects of energy on economic growth, hampered by limited energy. one type of energy increasingly utilized is electric power due to its essential role in running most instruments. the practical aspect supports the community to utilize the electric power for operating some instruments. they replace some manual with electric instruments, encouraging the progress of sectors such as industry, trade, hotels, restaurants, and tourism. consequently, the growth of productive economic sectors increases income and community living standards. human resource development is associated with the growth of the education and health sectors. education plays an essential role in creating human capital, significantly impacting economic growth (kefela, 2010). moreover, the quality of human resources determines success in realizing sustainable growth and global competitiveness (taty et al., 2017). the nation's advantage depends on the quality of the human resource or capital operating a high-tech machine to ensure an efficient production process. as a result, higher efficiency in economic activities results in a higher value-added (blaga & jozsef, 2014). health progress could be realized by adding or upgrading the facilities and their accessibility by the community. the excellent health infrastructure provides adequate services for the community, improving public health. furthermore, healthier communities produce more output, which helps raise income. health improvement also boosts per capita income directly because labor produces more output (acemoglu & johnson, 2007). similarly, healthier individuals produce higher output, while poor health lowers labor productivity (cole & neumayer, 2006), causing backwardness in many countries. infrastructure development has a significant multiplier effect on the economy of the impoverished region. in contrast, infrastructure improvements aid the expansion of regional economic potential. cities with improved infrastructure produce more output, resulting in higher economic growth. however, the impoverished regions catch up to the progressive areas through better infrastructure (barro & sala-i-martin, 2004). as a result, susanto infrastructure, gross regional domestic product … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 247 a convergence is marked by a decrease in regional inequality, which eliminates hdi disparity due to the higher growth in the lagging areas. the convergence concept refers to sigma and beta convergence. sigma convergence exhibits a reduction in regional differences, as measured by the standard deviation of the logarithms of per capita income between regions. a decrease in the sigma value implies convergence and vice versa. in contrast, based on the beta convergence, poor regions could catch up with rich regions in per capita income (barro & sala-i-martin, 2004). the beta convergence could be absolute or conditional. absolute convergence refers to assessments based on initial income levels without utilizing control variables that describe the characteristics of each region. also, the steady-state conditions in each area are assumed to be the same, while other variables that vary between regions, such as investment and population growth, are not considered in convergence estimates. conditional convergence analysis shows how the control variable affects steady-state circumstances. in this study, conditional convergence was calculated by adding the infrastructure and gross regional domestic product (gdrp), expected to affect the steady-state conditions of each region. previous empirical studies exhibited an hdi convergence, while others showed opposite results. singh and sharma (2017) showed that the human development index (hdi) in the impoverished states moved faster towards convergence than in developed regions. similarly, bunnag (2019) examined the hdi convergence in the mekong economy. the results showed that increasing openness or trade would minimize the hdi gap between the mekong countries. conversely, mazumdar (2002) found that hdi convergence did not occur across african countries. similarly, asongu (2013) examined african convergence in real per capita gdp and inequality-adjusted human development. the findings showed that the income component of the human development index (hdi) moves slower than others in the convergence process. however, few studies have examined hdi convergence in indonesia. taryono (2014) found a decline in hdi disparity across regencies and cities in riau. however, agustin (2019) analyzed hdi disparity by contingency test and found inequality in hdi across regencies and cities in indonesia. the high hdi disparity in the special region of yogyakarta is reflected in a sharp difference in hdi scores across regions. the hdi in yogyakarta municipality and sleman regency in 2019 are 86.85 and 83.85, respectively, while bantul and kulon progo regencies have 80.10 and 79.99 hdi scores, respectively. in contrast, gunungkidul regency has a moderate hdi score of 69.96, as shown in table 1. the good economic performance of the special region of yogyakarta is hampered by a discrepancy in regional hdi due to an infrastructure gap across areas. therefore, infrastructure and disparities in income, education, and public health cause the hdi score to vary across regions. the government has overcome this problem through infrastructure development to support economic growth, especially in an impoverished areas, to catch up with the developed regions. when this objective is realized, the differential in hdi across regions would diminish. susanto infrastructure, gross regional domestic product … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 248 table 1 human development index by regency/city, 2014-2019 hdi 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 kulon progo 70.68 71.52 73.23 73.23 79.53 79.99 bantul 77.11 77.99 78.42 78.67 79.45 80.01 gunungkidul 67.03 67.41 68.73 68.73 69.24 69.96 sleman 80.73 81.20 82.85 82.85 83.42 83.85 yogyakarta 83.78 84.56 85.49 85.49 86.11 86.85 sources: statistics of special region of yogyakarta research method this study utilized the central bureau of statistics (bps) data on the hdi score, installed electricity, education, and health facilities in the regencies or cities of special region of yogyakarta. the data were accompanied by the gross regional domestic product (grdp) of the regencies and cities. the study started in 2001 when the regional autonomy began and ended in 2019 because this publication was the latest during the study period. it was conducted in the regencies of sleman, bantul, kulon progo, gunungkidul, and yogyakarta municipality. the human development index in this study refers to the value of the human development index, while the installed electricity is the maximum electric power. furthermore, education refers to the number of teachers per vocational high school, while the health facility represents the number of beds in a hospital. gross regional domestic product (grdp) refers to gross regional domestic product at 2010 constant price. this study covers the condition of the hdi by regency or city in the special region of yogyakarta and the variables that influenced hdi from 2001-2019. therefore, panel data, a combination of cross-sectional and time-series data, were used. data panels have some superiority over cross-sectional or time-series data (baltagi, 2005). individual effects are often used in panel data, shown by the intercept that varies across the region. moreover, the chow test was used to choose a precise model between the fixed or common effects. the mackinnon, white, and davidson (mwd) test were used to determine whether the model is linear or non-linear. the study model is outlined in the following error correction model (ecm). +++++= − == −− = −  jit k j ij k j jitijjit k j ijtiiit hospiteduelecthdihdi 010 1,  1 0 − = + t k j ij ectgrdp (1) hdi: human development index (point), elect: installed electrical (megawatt= mw), edu: number of teachers per vocational school (persons), hospit: number of health facilities (bed), grdp: gross regional domestic product (billion rupiahs), ectt-1: error correction term. susanto infrastructure, gross regional domestic product … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 249 equations (1) is an overview of the hdi convergence when the coefficient ω is negative (ω < 0). the speed of convergence (λ) is calculated according to λ = ln(1+β)/t, with t denoting the length of time series data (paas et al., 2007). one of the regression prerequisites is stationary residuals that produce consistent and unbiased estimators. this study utilized the unit root test, based on im, pesaran, and shin (ips) (2003), to identify whether a series variable is non-stationary and possesses a unit root. also, the unit root was accompanied by the pedroni cointegration test, which is based on engle-granger's two-step (residual-based) cointegration tests. pedroni proposed several tests for cointegration that allow for heterogeneous intercepts and trend coefficients across cross-sections. moreover, a lag selection model based on the akaike information criterion (aic) was used to identify the optimum lag length (liew, 2004). result and discussion the first analysis was descriptive statistics to describe data specifications (table 2). the highest and lowest hdi scores were 86.65 and 65.87 points in yogyakarta municipality and gunungkidul regency, respectively. in this case, the highest hdi score is associated with excellent infrastructure in yogyakarta municipality because it is the center of economic activity, especially in the tertiary sector. therefore, its performance was supported by excellent education, health facilities, and sufficient installed electricity. conversely, the hilly condition of gunungkidul regency makes it economically disadvantaged, especially in the secondary and tertiary sectors. furthermore, yogyakarta municipality had the highest ratio of teachers per school because it is a student city. conversely, the lowest number of teachers per school occurred in gunungkidul regency. table 2 descriptive statistic edu elect hospit grdp hdi mean 44.73 216.09 1067.15 13.62 74.96 median 45.37 182.36 821.00 12.28 74.49 maximum 62.36 810.26 3419.00 35.28 86.65 minimum 28.36 38.84 119.00 3.25 67.037 std. dev. 7.39 166.26 827.58 7.46 5.03 sleman regency had the largest installed electricity of 810.264 kwh. the regency needs adequate energy due to its broad scope and significant economic activities. therefore, the state electricity enterprise installed a large electricity energy source in this regency. conversely, gunungkidul had the lowest installed electricity due to its insignificant economic activities in secondary and tertiary sectors. the highest number of hospital beds was 3,419 units in sleman regency in 2019, while the lowest was 119 in gunungkidul regency in 2001. moreover, sleman has the highest grdp due to its strategic location and excellent infrastructure. in contrast, kulon progo regency has the least gdrp due to inadequate infrastructure. susanto infrastructure, gross regional domestic product … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 250 the im, pesaran dan shin (ips) unit-roots test results indicated that all variables are not stationer at any level (table 3). however, the integration test order showed that all variables are stationer at first difference. therefore, this study utilized variables at first difference. table 3 the result of unit root test variable level prob. 1st difference prob. elect 2.320 0.99 -2.57* 0.01 edu -3.095 0.00* hospital -0.711 0.23 -2.78* 0.00 grdp -1.931 0.03* hdi -2.812 0.00* *stationer the pedroni cointegration test complements the unit root test. this result exhibited cointegration between variables on an indicator of panel pp-statistic, panel adf statistic, group pp-statistic, and group adf-statistic (table 4). therefore, there is a stationary linear combination among the variables in the model. the residual generated is stationary i(0). therefore, the estimated model is stable over time, or its variables have a causal relationship in one direction. table 4 the result of pedroni cointegration test within-dimension statistic prob. panel v-statistic -2.123 0.983 panel rho-statistic -0.108 0.457 panel pp-statistic -2.862* 0.002 panel adf-statistic -2.534* 0.006 between-dimension group rho-statistic 1.171 0.879 group pp-statistic -5.142* 0.000 group adf-statistic -4.932* 0.000 *cointegrated the next stage identified a better regression model between linear and non-linear, based on the mwd test. the result showed that z1 is not significant, while z2 is significant, meaning that the better model is linear (table 5). therefore, the regression was outlined in the linear model. table 5 the mwd test item coefficient prob. the better model z1 -0.001 0.99 linear z2 -0.013 0.00 the next test identified a precise model between the fixed or common effects. the chow test result showed that the superior model is fixed effects (table 6). however, this study could not choose a better model between fixed effects and random effects. the random effects estimation requires that the cross-sections be more than the coefficients between susanto infrastructure, gross regional domestic product … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 251 estimators to approximate the innovation variance. therefore, the analysis was based on the fixed effects model. table 6 the result of chow test cross-section chi-square prob. superior model 37.564 0.000 fixed effects the next step before running the regression was to identify the optimum lag length. the too-long lag reduces the degree of freedom, while the excessive lag results in a missspecified model. therefore, the study used a lag selection model based on the akaike information criterion (aic). the result showed that the lag length of 1 was optimum lag (table 7). the vector auto-regression (var) with a lag length of 1 is parsimonious and useful in this study. table 7 the optimum lag-length lag length akaike information criterion 1 1 2.721 *) 1 2 2.801 2 2 3.360 *optimum lag-length the fixed-effects model showed the coefficient of determination (r2) of 0.458, meaning that the independent variables in the model explained 45.8% of hdi variation. in contrast, the remaining 54.2% is explained by other variables outside the model. also, the coefficient of determination was small because the analysis was based on the first difference variables, not at the level. a significant f value indicates that all independent variables affect the dependent variable. furthermore, the negative coefficient of error correction term (ect) shows that the error correction model (ecm) is precise. the coefficient regression of ect of -0.215 indicated that the speed of adjustment in hdi toward its equilibrium is 0.215 points per year (table 8). table 8 estimation results (fixed effects) no. variable coefficient t-statistic t-table (5%)** 1 δ hdi (t-1) 0.101 0.910 1.645 2 δ electricity installed (t) 0.004* 4.091 1.645 3 δ education (t) 0.033* 2.609 1.645 4 δ health facilities (t) 0.001* 2.409 1.645 5 δ grdp (t) -7.13e-06 -1.093 -1.645 6 error correction term (t-1) -0.215* -5.627 -1.645 7 constant 0.442* 3.579 1.645 dependent variable: δ hdi (t) adjusted-r2 = 0.458 f = 8.117* * significant at (α=5 percent) ** 1 tail test susanto infrastructure, gross regional domestic product … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 252 the insignificant coefficient of the previous hdi (t-1) indicates that an increase in the hdi (last year) does not impact hdi (current year). the results show that the regression coefficient of hdi (t-1) is not negative, implying no convergence in the special region of yogyakarta. moreover, the hdi growth in impoverished regions is lower and unable to catch up with the developed regions, resulting in a gap in the hdi. the development in electricity, education, health facilities, and an increase in the gross domestic, regional product (grdp) cannot reduce a gap in the hdi among regencies or cities. however, this contradicts singh and sharma (2017), which showed that the low hdi states grew faster than the developed regions, resulting in hdi convergence across the indian states. the annual hdi growth in gunungkidul, an impoverished region, is 0.4%, and 0.8% in yogyakarta municipality. this finding was related to the poor infrastructure in gunungkidul. moreover, the number of hospital beds in gunungkidul is 0.4 units per thousand population, while sleman has a 24 unit per thousand population. the electricity consumption per capita in sleman is 0.48 mw per year, while gunungkidul residents only consume 0.21 mw yearly. furthermore, gunungkidul had only 28.36 teachers per vocational high school. in contrast, yogyakarta municipality, a student city, has 62.36 teachers per vocational high school. the installed electricity showed a positive regression coefficient with a magnitude of 0.004. therefore, an hdi rise by 0.004 points increases installed electricity by 1 mw, provided all other factors remain equal. consequently, an increase in electricity capacity indicates a better facility or infrastructure, making the production process more efficient at a lower cost. therefore, more goods and services are produced, meaning that better infrastructure supports economic growth and encourages a rise in hdi. there is a need to develop the tourism sector in gunungkidul, construct a new international airport in kulon progo, and increase the electric power supply in both regions. the two regions have inadequate energy supply with frequent rolling blackouts that disrupt some activities and harm economic performance. therefore, increasing the electricity supply would accelerate the economy and increase both regions' gross regional domestic product. subsequently, increasing gross regional domestic product (grdp) would encourage a higher income per capita, supporting the hdi's convergence in the special region of yogyakarta. education has a positive regression coefficient with a magnitude of 0.033. therefore, increasing the number of teachers per vocational high school by one person raises the hdi by 0.033 points in the short run, provided all other factors remain equal. more teachers increase the vocational high schools’ capacity to accommodate more young people to continue their studies. as a result, it promotes a higher mean year of school, raising the hdi score. this finding is consistent with adhadika and pujiyono (2014), which showed that higher education increases productivity, positively impacts people's income, and raises their expenditure and the hdi score. the regression coefficient of health facilities is significant with a magnitude of 0.001. this means that an increase in a hospital bed by 1 unit raises the hdi by 0.001. improved health susanto infrastructure, gross regional domestic product … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 253 infrastructure is followed by better public health and higher life expectancy, promoting hdi. furthermore, an investment in a health facility creates a better human resource, resulting in more output, higher income, a rise in expenditure, and increased hdi scores. this finding is in line with udjianto et al. (2018), which stated that developing health facilities encourages labor productivity convergence. the gross regional domestic product (grdp) regression coefficient is insignificant, meaning that its increase does not impact the hdi. grdp exhibited the goods and services resulting from the economic activities by local and non-local residents. part of grdp is income for several non-local residents involved in the production process. therefore, grdp does not reflect community income, and its increase does not raise the hdi score. conclusion there was no hdi convergence between areas in the special region of yogyakarta. growth in the hdi in the impoverished region was lower than in developed regions, resulting in a gap in the hdi. installed electricity, education, and health facilities increase per capita income, living standards, and the hdi. however, an increase in grdp does not impact the hdi. in line with regional autonomy, the provincial and local governments must cooperate to realize integrated planning, maintenance, and infrastructure development. moreover, the provincial government must promote infrastructure improvement to increase the hdi in impoverished regions. the infrastructure improvement enables the regions to catch up with the developed areas, encouraging hdi convergence. references acemoglu, d., & johnson, s. 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(2018). infrastructure and labour productivity convergence in gunungkidul region. jejak, 11(2), 356–374. https://doi.org/10.15294/jejak.v11i2.16057 https://doi.org/10.15294/jejak.v11i2.16057 jesp | jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan article type: research paper seaweed’s global value chain and local economic empowerment alfian hidayat* and purnami safitri abstract: the research analyzes the seaweed’s global value chain in west nusa tenggara since it is treated as the main export commodity of the province. the research focused on first, the governance or institutional setting of seaweed production, the governance type of seaweed’s trade plot which links the farmers, collective trader, and main trader and at last the global buyer. the research used descriptive qualitative approach and located in central lombok, west nusa tenggara. data sources were gathered by observation in the field and in-depth interview with respondents. the research also used literature data to enrich and broaden the perspective. miles and huberman models were used as analysis technique during the field research. the model itself consisted of data reduction activity, data display and conclusion, and data drawing or data verification. the result of this research shows that the institutional setting of seaweed production has not been well managed yet, which is indicated by the overlapping of structure, function, and duties of several bureaucracy institutions. second, the local competitiveness in seaweed trade is still weak. third, the upgrading capacity to process and diversify the commodity remains low because the industrialization is merely reckoned on small-medium size industries. fourth, government efforts in enhancing the upgrading capacity frequently are limited at the technique aspects. it means the institutional setting to enforce the synergy between actors are considered poor. keywords: global value chain; seaweed; governance. jel classification: q21, o13, e02 introduction west nusa tenggara is one of the potential seaweed production centers. ntb is set to become a minapolitan area of national seaweed cultivation in the national seaweed road map launched by the ministry of marine affairs and fisheries and the coordinating ministry of economic affairs in 2016. the urgency of either establishment, determination, or dissemination of seaweed production and cultivation centers road map is associated with the urgency of increasing national seaweed production to encourage global trade of indonesia’s seaweed. indonesia is a major both producer and exporter of world seaweed, which in 2010 reached 61 percent of the world’s share market in the seaweed sector with total production reaching more than 3 million tons (valderrama, cai, hishamunda, & ridler, 2017). affiliation: mataram university, mataram. indonesia. *correspondence: alfian.hidayat@unram.ac.id this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.20.1.5013 citation: hidayat, a. & safitri, p. (2019). seaweed’s global value chain and local economic empowerment. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 20(1), 50-62 article history received: october 2018 accepted: april 2019 http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp hidayat and safitri seaweed’s global value chain and local economic empowerment jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 50 in 2014, according to temporary data from the ministry of marine affairs and fisheries (kkp) (djpb direktorat jendral perikanan budidaya, 2017), indonesia’s seaweed production reached 10.2 million tons. the distribution of indonesia’s seaweed production is started from central sulawesi, south sulawesi, east nusa tenggara, east java, and west nusa tenggara provinces. in 2015, (ntt produsen rumput laut terbesar ri, paling banyak diekspor ke china, 2017) east nusa tenggara became the largest producer of indonesia’s seaweed, which contributed almost 60% of the total national seaweed production. east nusa tenggara shifted the position of central sulawesi to become the largest producer of seaweed in 2010. whereas, the main export market of indonesia’s seaweed is in china. however, there are concerns about indonesia’s global trade position in the seaweed sector. the trend of global seaweed trade shows a positive trend. according to fao (richards & rajadurai, 2017) quoted from official sources, for example, the demand for seaweed has increased by around 10 percent annually, and indonesia’s seaweed production is feared unable to fulfill the world’s demand. although statistically, the level of productivity of indonesia’s seaweed rises, the number of increases is considered not quite significant. in 2014, according to temporary data from the ministry of marine affairs and fisheries (kkp) (djpb direktorat jendral perikanan budidaya, 2017) indonesia’s seaweed production reached 10.2 million wet tons, although in 2015 only reached around 10.3 million wet tons. then, in 2016, the total production of indonesia’s seaweed reached around 11 million wet tons. not only issue about productivity levels, but also the economic spillover of seaweed commodities is also still low. although this commodity is considered able to increase the economy of coastal communities, the national scale distribution is not good enough because the producers for export purposes are dominated by only a few regions. the main exporters of indonesia are located in java and sulawesi regions, namely east java, central java, and central sulawesi. although in 2015, east nusa tenggara became the largest producer of indonesia’s seaweed, but that position is not yet succeeded in shifting the position of the main exporter regions. the same thing happened in west nusa tenggara, which has been considered by the kkp as one of the minapolitan locations or national seaweed production centers. the minapolitan central area of ntb seaweed was built since 2010 spread from lombok island to sumbawa island. in lombok island, minapolitan areas are pengantap village, west lombok regency with a potential of 600 hectares and gerupuk bay, central lombok regency with a potential of around 200 hectares. whereas, in east lombok regency, the center of minapolitan are consisted by ekas bay with a potential of 400 hectares, sereweh bay with a potential of 800 hectares, and awang bay with a potential of 400 hectares. in sumbawa island, it spreads in sumbawa besar, bima and dompu regencies. basically, ntb’s seaweed production showed a fairly positive performance, as seen from increasing production number from year to year. for example, production in 2014 reached 770.374 tons, increasing to 1.080 tons in 2016 which exceeded the target of around 850 tons. although, that amount is considered not enough or limited to fulfill the hidayat and safitri seaweed’s global value chain and local economic empowerment jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 51 export market opportunities. at present, ntb does export seaweed to major countries such as china and starts exploring other country markets such as vietnam and africa. even though it has considerable potential, seaweed is a quite fragile sector. although seaweed cultivation is considered easy and inexpensive, seaweed farming is also considered to have a quite high vulnerability aspect both due to natural factors and market situations. first, from natural factors, for example the vulnerability comes from the threat of organic organisms in the waters, such as grass-eating fish (herbivorous fish) which are predators of seaweed, viruses, or other diseases. the climate and season are also one of the causes of the fluctuations in seaweed production. in indonesia, the peak rainy season or monsoon is a critical phase of seaweed cultivation. as the result, seaweed is a seasonal commodity where the harvest is in a certain period. this seasonal character also causes fluctuations in seaweed prices. second, seaweed is a fairly competitive commodity. in preliminary data, it was stated that indonesia was in the main position as the world’s main exporter. from the level of volume, indonesia can be said to be at the top position for supplying the needs of the world’s seaweed, but in terms of export value is considered far behind. this is because the selling price of indonesia’s seaweed is still very low. it is also because the quality of indonesia’s seaweed is not good enough. the same thing happened in ntb where low seaweed prices made farmers not too enthusiastic for cultivating of seaweed. the cause of low selling prices is not only caused by agricultural processes, weather or climate, and post-harvest processes, but also ntb and indonesia still rely on the sale of raw seaweed. third, the next threat comes from the world trade regime. seaweed has been used as organic and environmentally friendly food. however, massive and expansive seaweed cultivation is now considered to trigger damage and pollution of the aquatic environment. the us fda, for example, in 2016 delisted seaweed as organic material. this is certainly a precedent for the seaweed market. besides, the world seaweed organization agreed on the existence of a rule regarding the seaweed standards, either as raw material or semiprocessed products. fourth, the global economic situation is also quite volatile. the weakening of china’s economy as the main market for indonesia’s seaweed exports, especially ntb, has caused a declining in demand levels which ultimately caused a sluggishness of seaweed cultivation sector in indonesia. the dependence of seaweed commodities on the export market has caused this sector to be very sensitive to global changes which has implications for the structure of demand or the world market. to anticipate that, the government has begun to look at seaweed absorption in the domestic market. the government then plans to abolish raw seaweed export quota by slowly reducing the export quota. according to the indonesian seaweed association and other stakeholders in the seaweed sector, that policy is considered inappropriate because it will harm farmers who have relied on the absorption of the export market for their seaweed production. the government argues that it is to support the national seaweed industry and to encourage the export of processed seaweed or production. however, the problem is the hidayat and safitri seaweed’s global value chain and local economic empowerment jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 52 absorption of the domestic market for seaweed which is still very minimal and has not been able to replace the export market. if this case is not anticipated, it will cause oversupply and a decreasing of seaweed prices, which of course will cause sluggishness in this sector. based on those descriptions, a revamping the seaweed industry requires an appropriate strategy. in the opinion of researchers, closing quota exports is not appropriate if it is not accompanied by an increase in the seaweed processing industry. the low price of seaweed in the export market, especially ntb’s seaweed can be caused by several things, such as the quality of seaweed or even the process of production chain governance which cause unbalance in the bargaining power of a group towards other groups. those problems can cause low competitiveness of superior products of ntb. therefore, this paper tries to analyze ntb’s seaweed commodities using the gvc method. research method simply, the gvc is understood as fragmentation of the production process through international supply chains. the urgency of the study of global value chains or the gvc was born from the transformation of global trade due to globalization (gereffi, global value chains in a post-washington consensus world, 2014). in the era of globalization, the market structure is very determined by the free flow of investment. because of globalization, international companies have begun to abandon the fordism industrial production model which requires upstream-downstream coordination in one company. this production model is now being abandoned because it is considered inefficient and relatively expensive. while, the production in the post-fordism industry mode creates new dynamics in international trade. globalization has made international companies to choose outsourcing as strategy toward the parts or several stages of their production in several countries. that problem occurred due to the decreasing in transportation and communication costs which also resulted in increasingly low coordination costs. this also resulted in the strengthening of regional and global production network formations. in this new formation, international trade is dominated by intermediate trade and upgraded goods which are seen as important components in the export industry’s production. the formation of global trade in the era of globalization which causes increasingly fragmented global production creates opportunities and challenges. although for gvc analysts, if it overcomes new challenges, the global trade or globalization will be able to provide significant benefits for market players, especially the private sector. the fragmentation of international production can also provide opportunities for developing countries because it does not require competency in all aspects of production, but instead emphasizing the opportunity to concentrate on increasing competence in certain aspects that can be strengthened by their competitive advantage. this has resulted in opportunities to take advantage and compete in the global market which are opened to anyone including small and medium scale industry players (msmes). however, even if only to improve competency, there is one aspect or a certain stage of production that still requires a comprehensive carrying capacity, so that these industry players can upgrade hidayat and safitri seaweed’s global value chain and local economic empowerment jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 53 products optimally. capacity building for upgrading not only requires the utilization of existing resources and opportunities but also must be supported by the right policy formulation. therefore, gvc studies can help identify weak points, strengths, and industry opportunities. then, of course, the gvc is considered to contribute to a strategic policy formulation to encourage the expansion of the impact of globalization on the local economy. this study was conducted within the ntb provincial government and skpd as well as in the ntb seaweed barn area especially in villages that are a commodity base for seaweed. this research was conducted for 8 months from march to november 2017. data analysis was needed to make the research have the right objectivity weight. the development through data collection techniques and output data was obtained. according to janice mcdrury collaborative group analysis of data, 1999 in (moleong l. j., 2008), the stages of qualitative data analysis were as follows: a). read/study data, mark keywords and ideas in the data; b). learning these keywords, trying to find themes that come from the data. c). write down the model found; d). coding that has been done (moleong l. j., 2008) those data, by the researchers, were then processed according to the focus of the problem of the research topic by looking at the boundaries and choice of descriptions that were suitable especially on the indicators of research and problem formulation. data analysis in this study seeks to describe the problem as well as a solution in terms of policy and strengthening processes of the intended research objectives. result and discussion in order to revitalize various economic potentials of the province of west nusa tenggara (ntb), the ntb’s provincial government made a breakthrough through excellent programs in order to make ntb province as a province that is able to revitalize agriculture well which is in line with national government programs. the vigorous revitalization conducting by the ntb government is in the agricultural sector and animal husbandry in the broad sense that includes three superior commodities, namely cattle, corn, and seaweed, known as the “pijar” program (badan pusat statistik ntb, 2017). this program was conducted with the aims for increasing economic development, food security and reducing rates of unemployment and poverty. the existence of pijar program is expected to be able to encourage regional economic development and to reduce poverty. in the theory of international trade, there is generally a kind of belief or assumption that an increase in a country’s exports will improve the economy of a country. since preglobalization or even often referred to as globalization in the first phase, trade is the country’s strategy to strengthen the economy. therefore, countries are competing to extract their resources to strengthen their exports. however, in subsequent developments in the study of international political economy, the quantity of export in a country is not a guarantee to get the maximum profit of a country. mercantilist economists such as alexander hamilton and the friedrich list state that the best export in a country is the export of industrial goods rather than agriculture or raw materials hidayat and safitri seaweed’s global value chain and local economic empowerment jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 54 which have low terms of trade. the mercantilist view essentially stated that if a country is unable to industrialize, autarchic and isolationist policies are rational choices. the study of globalization can actually be said to have no agreement on the impact of globalization on a country. the impact of globalization is often associated with the intensity or the depth of globalization of a country or how active a country is in the process of globalization. in addition, choices in globalization are also very dependent on the perspectives used. however, in general, the study of globalization, especially from a moderate perspective, stated that globalization does not always have a negative impact. excess globalization in a country is not only influenced by the depth of globalization process but also from the aspect of state capacity. the gvc perspective starts from the belief that globalization is not apolitical or neutral. the dominant position in a global market is related to the inherent power hierarchy between the actors of globalization. market relations that connect between one actor or one firm with another firm is not merely a relation between producers-consumers or cooperation between producers and producers, but often the relationship between actors is intertwined in exploitative situations, for example between large firms and small firms that supply industrial needs of large global firms. this asymmetrical relationship of power can be caused by several things such as capacity hierarchy, differences in the ability to network or as mentioned, and differences in capital capacity. the asymmetrical relationship also causes weaker groups to be dependent on other actors. in the view of gvc, according to (kaplinsky & morris, 2017) the issue of globalization is then not only about the extent of an actor is involved in it but also about the extent is sustainable income growth when actors are integrated into the global economy. although globalization is considered bringing many benefits, globalization is also accompanied by its dark side. the extent of poverty and inequality is a fact of globalization that cannot be ignored. strengthening the responsiveness to minimize the effects of globalization variables on actors is absolutely needed. gvc as an analytical study shows its usefulness in this aspect which seeks to answer the issues regarding the aspects of injustice and actor inequality through strengthening actor capabilities. gvc is an analytical tool to explain the advantages and disadvantages, and how the benefit distribution is integrated into the global economy with the choice of a sector. through gvc, the question of globalization is no longer about whether globalization is good or bad for the perpetrators especially for vulnerable groups, but the gvc helps to understand the dynamics of globalization itself. then, it can identify the right policies as an effective response to globalization itself. competitiveness context the competitiveness context in this study emphasizes in efforts or ways to develop comparative advantages regarding productivity, efficiency, and profitability in national and international contexts. in the context of local government, for example, law no. 32 of 2004 on regional autonomy, it requires the government to build up regional productive capacity. one form of increasing the capacity of the region is to realize the competitiveness of regional products on the international market. then, we can explain hidayat and safitri seaweed’s global value chain and local economic empowerment jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 55 that competitiveness in the context of the global value chain (gvc) study can be explained from several things. first; the capacity and capability of production, second; innovation and third; governance which is defined as a form of priority agenda. first, concerning capacity and capability in production. ntb as an area with great potential in seaweed production has been not optimal yet in seaweed production. according to bps report in 2014 showed that ntb’s production capacity is still below sulawesi, maluku, and ntt as national seaweed commodity suppliers. even sulawesi has reached 63 percent of the total national seaweed. certainly, one of the causes of the problem is the not yet optimal efforts related stakeholders to cultivate seaweed. production capacity that is still relatively low is due to the utilization of potential area owned by the producer is still 30 percent, even though the trend of production increases every year. the production capacity is also still based on the absorption of the domestic market and has a vulnerability to the international market. based on bps ntb province’s data on the distribution of seaweed in 2013 (badan pusat statistik ntb, 2017), around 91.52 percent of seaweed farming businesses sell their yields to the traders. traders here have a role to sell seaweed out of the region or abroad in the form of raw seaweed. only around 1.58 percent of seaweed farming households sell to the exporters and 3.90 percent to the cooperatives. in addition, around 0.18 percent of seaweed farmers sell their products to the processing industry. from those data, it has been illustrated that ntb still relies on raw material because of only 0.18 percent for sale to the seaweed processing industry. if the absorption of seaweed sales is higher in the processing industry then the added value will be greater compared to the selling in primary form. for ntb seaweed production according to bps data (badan pusat statistik ntb, 2017) which is continuing data from the ntb marine affairs and fisheries agency said that ntb’s marine aquaculture production in 2013 was 817.693,83 tons including seaweed production as big as 756.700,23 tons (92.5 percent). this manufacture is produced from a number of seaweed farming centers such as west lombok, gerupuk central lombok, serewe east lombok, kefasir west sumbawa, dompu and bima district. from the amount of production which is quite big per year, it makes ntb included one of the top 5 regions as the biggest of seaweed producers in indonesia. however, seaweed production cannot be utilized to the maximum because of the total area of potential new cultivation which is utilized only 30 percent. the government’s role is extremely vital for providing facilities and easiness to expand the potential area of seaweed culture, considering that only 30 percent of the area has been cultivated. if the area of seaweed cultivation is more expanded, it will certainly have an impact on the amount of production. according to field data from the results of interviews with the head of ntb marine and fisheries agency (dkp), it is explained the amount of ntb seaweed production during the last three years, namely in 2015, 2016 had increased. the total production in 2015 was 337.462 tons and the total production for 2016 was 1.026.580,42 tons, produced by all districts in ntb. from those data, seeing the development of production that increase each year, it should be able to be utilized as big as possible by various parties involved in hidayat and safitri seaweed’s global value chain and local economic empowerment jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 56 the development of ntb’s seaweed. however, the production results are still not fully maximized due to various obstacles in the field. second, it can be seen that the competitiveness of ntb’s seaweed still constrained by innovation. innovation related to this problem can be seen from 2 things. first thing is the lack of innovation in processing seaweed and still relies on strengthening msmes (micro, small and medium enterprises) as the absorption of the local market. ntb’s seaweed farmers prefer to sell wet seaweed at a low price. this shows that as one of the ntb commodities, seaweed commodities do not have a driving industry among them, a competitive production model, the spread of extensive innovations, comparative advantages, as well as modern, medium and large-scale industries. second, mastery and application of technology in the process of cultivation and post-harvest/processing. technology is still a big problem in ntb seaweed management. fluctuations in production levels and the lack of a driving industry can be a reference to the low-application of technology in seaweed management in ntb. the processing production model by msmes is also still hampered by the capacity and capability of machine technology. currently, msmes adhere to labor-intensive models and rely little on machines/technology so that vulnerability to production numbers depends on certain conditions such as weather. this shows that the processing industry in ntb has not been well developed. the fulcrum of post-harvest absorption for the domestic region, ntb’s seaweed only relies on msmes (micro, small and medium enterprises) explained by the head of the agroindustry, industry agency of ntb that the reality of msmes growth rates has increased but has not been in large production capacities yet. the msmes sector only relies on markets that are multiplayer effects from the ntb tourism industry. processed sales only rely on souvenir outlets that has not been large yet in quantity. third, in essence, seaweed as a superior commodity has been planned in the pijar program issued in 2009. this is in line with the principle of competitiveness to prioritize regional production capacity in the fields of cattle, corn, and seaweed. however, the data in the field show that the pijar program in the context of seaweed has not yet reaped to the maximum results. it is seen that there are production inequalities from the 3 leading commodities. cattle and corn are quite successful but seaweed is still lagging. if it remains as a superior program in the ntb region, the pijar program has a problem that is quite important and urgent. the main obstacle of the pijar program, especially seaweed commodities, is the lack of structured agendas and seaweed management tools in the pijar program. there is no clear structure framework in the ntb government in the emergence of ego-sectorial management the centralized commodity in pijar that is only in the management of cattle and corn is the obstacle of that program. governance context governance in the gvc study refers to the position of power of actors. governance is generally understood as a model of the position of the actor or firm in a value chain and the type of governance that can change depending on the upgrading strategy. the focus of governance is the relation of power asymmetry between actors or firms in a value hidayat and safitri seaweed’s global value chain and local economic empowerment jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 57 chain. in simple terms, governance is described through the relationship between firms or inter-firms where one of the actors is the determinant or controller of the value chain in a production process. in the ntb seaweed production chain, there are several identifiable actors, namely bureaucracy, farmers, sellers, collectors and traders up to international buyers. the roles of the actors will be described as follows. the presence of local institution will be easy in term of monitoring and continuous evaluation. in essence, this view assumes that it is not about the issue of how many institutions, but it is about the aspects of intertwining or connectedness between institutions or in other words aspects of bureaucratic synergy. synergy efforts can be seen from the existence of planning and supervising the institutions such as development planning agency in sub-national level (bappeda). bappeda and skpd have regular meeting schedules for policy synergies. however, it should be noted that this synergy is often bureaucratic where meetings between institutions are related only to routine meetings. however, department of commerce or dinas perdagangan (disdag) had communication channels with the industry agency or even with other agency offices. it tends to be responded with different answers and duties so that communication between institutions seemed not needed. this gives the impression that the same work or task is carried out by several other agencies or institutions. this situation at the institutional level may not be a problem, but it can be a problem for service users. for example, there is a kind of confusion over matters such as export, standardization, and other permits. the least desirable thing that can arise in this situation is the existence of distrust of stakeholders who tend to have a negative perspective on the bureaucracy. in addition, several speakers, namely the head of the sector in a particular agency, complained about the imbalance of duties and budgets or the duties of other agencies which were actually the main tasks of that agency. in the end, the part of perspective of large company in weberan’s bureaucracy theory is difficult to create, even though in the study of gvc states that the presence of institutional arrangements can be a key factor in aspects of rent availability to strengthen the capacity of innovation and upgrading a region. on the other hand, local governments have knowledge circulation devices through the presence of institutions or technical implementers such as seaweed development centers or uptd. in this aspect, the governments are aware of the importance of knowledge rent to increase upgrading capacity in aspects of seaweed production. the flow of seaweed trade can be said to be relatively long so that there is a price gap in some actors. farmers usually sell dried seaweed yields to small collectors or villages and small collectors deposit to large collectors or sub-district collectors. then, district collectors will sell it to parties processing plant or exporter. at the farmer’s level, the price of dried seaweed ranges from 7.000 – 8.000 rupiah. this price is also very dependent on the quality of seaweed and can even be lower. farmers often sell seaweed that does not fulfill the standards or qualifications. the qualification or standard of seaweed is determined by large retailers or large traders, namely dried seaweed with a moisture content of less than 35 percent. if seaweed does not fulfill the qualifications, collectors and wholesalers need 3-4 days to get dry seaweed with the desired level of moisture and/or water content. this is the main reason why small collectors buy seaweed at the hidayat and safitri seaweed’s global value chain and local economic empowerment jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 58 farm level at a price that can be said to be low because collectors must do several more steps before seaweed meets the qualifications or exporter’s standards (water content and cleanliness). from this flow, the lowest cash flow is seen as a group of farmers because prices are determined by large players and those prices are often fluctuating. in terms of farmers, seaweed is often sold at low standards depending on price fluctuations. however, farmers often feel that quickly selling low quality-seaweed with low prices will save the cost of the drying process. in addition, because farmers often face capital problems, fast selling of the yields is an effort to repay loans used during the planting period. simply seen from the flow of seaweed trade, it can be said that the structure of seaweed trade governance is buyer driven. in the gvc study, it distinguished two forms of governance, namely buyer-driven and producer-driven (gereffi, a commodity chains framework for analyzing global industries, 1994). the buyer-driven chain is a production relationship where the buyer becomes the lead actor who determines the standards of both product quality standards and production process standards. the buyer also often determines the price of the commodity. on the other hand, parties that are in the lower chain such as producers or suppliers only accept it or try to fulfill the specified qualifications. the relationship between producers and buyers are often arms-length relationships with low-trust chain structures. the chain of relationships with the above characters is very often short-term and triggers one-party profit-taking behavior and relatively unequal distribution of profits. armslength relationships are like simple sellers and buyers. the absence of a price agreement makes buying and selling relations fluctuating and speculative. buyers usually make a strategy of “buy a lot” to avoid high prices, while the seller also often rushes to sell because prices are considered better. while, the low-trust chain refers to an understanding of the lack of depth or intensity of the trust level of buyers towards producers. in this situation, if the producer is considered unable to meet the quality, the buyer can terminate the contract as part of the sanction. such a structure illustrates the weak bargaining position of local seaweed producers. in the ideal context, producer and buyer relations must at least describe a high trust relationship. this high level of trust is formed and based on an awareness of interdependence. if the buyer is worried about the capacity of the producer to fulfill the qualifications or product standards, the buyer will initiate assistance, such as training or technology transfer. however, relations with high-trust chain characters are difficult to form in the trade chain which is too long, where buyers only communicate with local exporters. whereas, a chain with a high level of trust requires the formation of a dense network so that communication between farmers, traders, and buyers can be well established. thus, a very good networking capacity is needed from the producers and buyers. in fact, the capacity to access the market or networking is very difficult to reach even though it is an exporter group. hidayat and safitri seaweed’s global value chain and local economic empowerment jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 59 upgrading context the ntb government has made upgrading efforts to increase the competitiveness of ntb seaweed commodities. some forms of upgrading carried out by the ntb government have been quite good but still have not been able to improve competitiveness due to constraints on the capability of the regions. the slow upgrading also shows that the role of the government is considered still lacking in realizing seaweed development policies. the seaweed processing policy does not lead to the middle industry sector, and only a small percentage of the production has been successfully upgraded by the ntb government. the small number of seaweed upgrading products that are competitive in the outside of local market indicate the lack-collaboration between the government and the seaweed industry. it indicates uneven market access obtained by each seaweed processor. some upgrading policies in seaweed management in ntb are policy for conserving processed seaweed products. previously, processed seaweed products were only based on gelatin, but now processed seaweed products have diverse conservation. ranging from snacks to drinks, heavily processed food products, even now it is towards non-food processing, such as cosmetics, soap, and others. the conservation policy is quite successful, as seen in the increase of seaweed processing by msmes. however, the obstacle found in the field is the unbalance processing of seaweed with the creation of extensive market access. the present seaweed processing is only based on the local market, depending on the tourism industry. one of the informants from msmes actors explained that processed seaweed products are very dependent on the tourist season. if it is in the holiday season, processed seaweed products is crowded. meanwhile, in the outside of the season, it tends to be sluggish and slack. moreover, seaweed processing is based solely on strengthening labor-intensive production models which are increasingly burdensome to msme actors. one of which is still relying on nature to assist the process of producing seaweed. the economic added value obtained by ntb province is very small and is very dependent on market demand. for this reason, it is necessary to develop seaweed processing industry so that the added value obtained by ntb province is greater because it can be marketed and developed in the form of non-food processed products. the efforts to increase the value of seaweed commodity has been carried out by encouraging food processing businesses because processing seaweed into processed food is a strategic step in increasing added value. however, the amount of seaweed that can be absorbed by processed food houses is small. to increase the added value of the seaweed commodity, the strategy is by developing of seaweed processing business, not only based on processed foods but also developed it into non-food processing. in connection with it, according to the data by the marine and fisheries agency, on the 1st until may 2nd, 2017, fao (food and agriculture organization) sent two cultivation experts and processed seaweed industries, namely: dr. ir. maskur mahmud (directorate general of kkp aquaculture) and dr. ir. taryono kodiran (lecturer of the faculty of fisheries and marine sciences of ipb) to survey the potential of seaweed cultivation and the prospect of developing its processed industries for consumption and nonhidayat and safitri seaweed’s global value chain and local economic empowerment jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 60 consumption needs, such as dodol, jelly, tortillas, soap, toothpaste, lotions, pharmaceutical products, and raw material industries such as carragenan flour. the visited locations are serewe-east lombok and gerupuk-central lombok which are seaweed farming areas and seaweed processing smes such as “gerupuk mas” central lombok, “jelly joy”, “lombok food” and “ud sasak maiq” in west lombok (dinas kelautaan dan perikanan provinsi ntb, 2017). this activity was carried out in order to expand the processing of ntb seaweed commodities which can be processed not only into food products but also non-food products. the policy to expand the segmentation of non-food seaweed processing in ntb has begun to be initiated. cosmetic products made from seaweed raw materials have been built and developed in the banyumulek area. as a new opportunity for seaweed cultivation, the marketing goal of non-food products is directed to the tourism sector in ntb province, which incidentally is in desperate need of cosmetic and health products for tourists who stay in hotels or need beauty care at center treatments (salon and spa) (dinas kelautaan dan perikanan provinsi ntb, 2017). products that will produce include soap, body lotion, shampoo, toothpaste, sunblock, scrub, facial wash, and other products. for the capacity of cosmetics products that will be produced from non-food processing, it is estimated that there are 1 ton/month with carragenan needs as many as 300 kg or equivalent to wet seaweed raw materials as many as 10 tons/bul. with a large number of raw material needs, it is expected that the development of processing non-food products can help the absorption of seaweed production which will then increase the selling price in the market. in addition, it is expected to create marketing certainty and absorb seaweed yields in large quantities to local industrial houses. synergy context the form of synergy in processing seaweed commodities can be seen from various collaborations between various related parties. the government itself has provided convenience by facilitating seaweed businesses. as seen in the roadmap, as a short, medium, and long-term plan to continue improving sustainable seaweed productivity and to create a superior commodity in ntb province. in terms of regulation, the production of seaweed commodities has become a major focus in regional government policies which are realized in the pijar program. in order to support and assist the seaweed upgrading program, each relevant regional office continues to synergize, strive to facilitate, and provide various assistance to the community and business subject. the government has provided some assistance such as coaching and various socialization related to seaweed processing, even assisting to procure tools for processing seaweed food both to farmers and production houses. however, frequently, the tools provided are not in accordance with the needs of the production houses. even, the tools provided are not capable of operating on a sufficiently large scale. the government already has a work program and certain assistance related to facilitation of seaweed processing through related agencies. hidayat and safitri seaweed’s global value chain and local economic empowerment jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 61 the assistance in terms of research for the development of seaweed is also one of the government’s focuses so that it has opened the widest possible range of cooperation with relevant parties regarding research. for the business people themselves, seaweed is given convenience and assistance by the local government in its production efforts. both the community and business people continue to collaborate in increasing the development of seaweed. in addition, the government continues to open the doors of good business for ngo’s who are willing to work together with the government to develop ntb seaweed commodities. the road map for seaweed processing has also been formed, especially the road map for marketing. the government also opens the widest opportunity for investors who are interested in investing in seaweed commodity processing business. various related institutions have also been synergized to provide various facilities and assistance to seaweed businesses. the form of synergy in the processing of seaweed in ntb can also be seen from the form of cooperation with political parties. the collaboration was also conducted with the bandung institute of technology (itb) in order to develop non-food seaweed. this step is very appropriate to develop the value chain of ntb seaweed commodities. conclusion after conducting the research process and analyzing some field data, the researchers can draw conclusions from the discussion in the previous chapter. first, the governance of ntb seaweed commodity has complex problems even now. some of them are structures that have not been built in seaweed management, an ego-sectorial owned by each department/stakeholder still exists and there is no management flow synergized by the government in terms of seaweed management. second, the competitiveness of ntb seaweed commodities is at the middle level. this is indicated by the lack-competitiveness of seaweed production at both national and international levels. the failure of innovation in seaweed products is large and massive. the absence of a driving industry is growing in the ntb region. third, major problems exist in the upgrading policies carried out by the ntb government in seaweed management. some of them are product conserved that has been successful, but remains segmented on the local market and depend on the tourism industry. fourth, certifications and standardization are in upgrading policies which are also still in constrained and limited to the budget. also, there are many products that do not have certification and standardization yet. the last, synergy intended in seaweed management does not only involve government and business members but also the community. the community component needs to be intensively included, especially the epistemic community, such as researchers, universities, and others. the greater synergy that was built involved full farmers as producers/spearheads of seaweed management. in addition, the synergy that is built certainly involves many sectors, namely the seaweed management sector with sectors hidayat and safitri seaweed’s global value chain and local economic empowerment jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 62 which are able to support processing such as the tourism sector and the financial support sector. references badan pusat statistik ntb. 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(2019). fiscal policy management and private investment in nigeria: crowdingout or crowding-in effect?. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 20(1), 11-26 article history received: january 2019 accepted: april 2019 http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp awode fiscal policy management and private investment in nigeria jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 12 barrel in first quarter of 2017 as against $120 per barrel in the third quarter of 2014. oshikoya (1994) revealed that the average growth rate of real gdp per capita in developing nations fell from 0.4% per annum between 1970s and 1980s to –1.2% per year between 1980 and 1989. the significant fall in gross rates of investment may perhaps reflect many factors that have seriously affected many less developed countries during the 1980s. on the average, the proportion of total domestic investment in the gross domestic product fell from approximately 20.8% per year during 1973-80 to 1.1% per year during 1980-89. having recognized the need for a change of approach, developing countries shifted focus to growing the private sector. arising from the above, the nigerian government over the years embarked on diverse macroeconomic policy options to tinker the economy on the path of growth and development. amongst the policy options readily employed is that of fiscal policy. medee and nenbee (2011) noted that despite the lofty place of fiscal policy in the management of the nigeria economy, the economy is yet to come on the path of sound growth and development while audu (2012) asserted that the growth and development of the nigerian economy has not been stable over the years and as a result, the country’s economy has witnessed so many shocks and disturbances both internally and externally over the decades. internally, the unstable investment and consumption patterns as well as the improper implementation of public policies, changes in future expectations and the accelerator are some of the factors responsible for it. similarly, the external factors identified are wars, revolutions, population growth rates and migration, technological transfer and changes as well as the openness of the nigerian economy are some of the factors responsible. the management of the nigerian economy in order to achieve macroeconomic stability has been unproductive and negative hence one cannot say that nigeria economy is performing. this is evidence in the adverse inflationary trend, government fiscal policies, undulating foreign exchange rates, the fall and rise of gross domestic product, unfavourable balance of payments as well as increasing unemployment rates are all symptoms of growing macroeconomic instability. as such, the nigerian economy is unable to function well in an environment where there is low capacity utilization attributed to shortage in foreign exchange as well as the volatile and unpredictable fiscal policies in nigeria (isaksson, 2001). the intent of fiscal policy is essentially to stimulate economic and social development by pursuing a policy stance that ensures a sense of balance between taxation, expenditure and borrowing that is consistent with sustainable growth. however, the extent to which fiscal policy engenders private investment continues to attract theoretical and empirical debate especially in developing countries like nigeria. thus, one continues to wonder if the theoretical linkage between fiscal policy variables and private investment is actually attainable in the nigerian economy. on the basis of this, this study finds it necessary to examine the relationship between fiscal policy variables and private investment in nigeria between 1987 and 2015. it is noteworthy to point out that several studies, cross-country and country-specific, have explored issues around fiscal policy; however studies examining its effect on private investment are few in nigeria. for instance, alesina et al., (2002) evaluated the effects of awode fiscal policy management and private investment in nigeria jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 13 fiscal policy on investment using a panel of oecd countries and found that public spending has a sizable negative effect on business investment which is significantly greater than the effect of various types of taxes on business investment. omitogun and ayinla (2007) examined empirically the contribution of fiscal policy in the achievement of sustainable economic growth in nigeria. they used solow growth model estimated with the use of ordinary least square method and found out that fiscal policy has not been effective in the area of promoting sustainable economic growth in nigeria. they suggested that nigerian government should put a stop to the incessant unproductive foreign borrowing, wasteful spending and uncontrolled money supply and embark on specific policies aimed at achieving increased and sustainable productivity in all sectors of the economy. marratin and salotti (2010) conducted a study on the relationship between fiscal policy and private investment of 14 eu countries and found that state expenditure shocks have positive effect on private investment. the study suggested that remuneration-related public expenditure has a relatively higher stimulating effect, whereas government investment has no stimulating effect on private investment. abata, kehinde and bolarinwa (2012) assessed how fiscal and monetary policies influence economic growth and development in nigeria. from the result there exist a mild long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and fiscal policy variables in nigeria. the study suggests that for any meaningful progress towards fiscal prudence on the part of government to occur, some powerful pro-stability stakeholders strong enough to challenge government fiscal recklessness will need to emerge. isaac and samuel (2012) investigated the effects of fiscal policy on investment and economic growth in kenya, the study used a time series data from 1973 to 2009. they adopted two stage instrumental variable estimation method to perform the regression analysis because of its adaptability. the results indicate that fiscal policy impacts on investment and investment plays a major role in the determination of the economic growth in kenya. they recommend that the following three measures can be adopted accordingly: re-examination of government spending to eventually make it complementary to investment, channeling more credit to the private sector and finally designing appropriate policies that deal with the current high domestic public debt and budget deficit. sineviciene and vasiliauskaite (2012) analysed the relationship between fiscal policy and private investment in the baltic states of estonia, latvia and lithuania. the study showed that from the tax revenue side, the strongest relationship exists between the current taxes on income, wealth and private investment. analysis of fiscal policy indicators interaction with private investment from the government expenditure side showed the existence of strongest relationship between public and private investment thereby leading to suggestions that fiscal policy indicators explain fluctuations in private investment in the baltic states. nathan (2013) evaluates the causal relationship between money supply, fiscal deficits and exports as a means of analyzing the impact of fiscal policy on the growth of the nigerian economy between 1970 and 2010. the research employed the co-integration error correction mechanism (ecm), a two band recursive least square to test for the stability of the nigerian economy as well as determine the effect of money awode fiscal policy management and private investment in nigeria jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 14 supply, fiscal deficits, and exports on the relative effectiveness of fiscal policies in the nigerian economy. the study reveals that there is a significant causal relationship between gross domestic product (gdp) and the variables used in this research. they also concluded that there was a significant causal relationship between exports and gross domestic product and hence fiscal policies. conclusively, on the whole, they recommend that fiscal policies have a significant influence on the output growth of the nigeria economy. malik (2013) examined linear as well as non-linear impact of fiscal policy variables on private investment in pakistan from 1972 to 2009 using time series data. the results imply that it’s better to examine different aspects of fiscal policy instead of fiscal policy variables in aggregate form as the impact of fiscal policy variables in aggregate and disaggregate form do not comply with each other. different categories of expenditures and revenues have different impact on private investment. secondly, in most of the cases there exists a non-linear relationship, which implies the significance of certain threshold level for the different fiscal policy instruments to encourage private investment. okoro (2013) investigated the impact of government spending on the nigerian economic growth from 1980 to 2011. employing the ordinary least square multiple regression analysis to estimate the model specified. real gross domestic product (rgdp) was adopted as the dependent variable while government capital expenditure (gcexp) and government recurrent expenditure (grexp) represents the independent variables. with the application of granger causality test, johansen co-integration test and error correction mechanism, the result shows that there exists a long-run equilibrium relationship between government spending and economic growth in nigeria. oyeleke and ajilore (2014) investigated the sustainability of fiscal policy in nigeria over the period of 1980-2010 to determine whether or not the government has violated intertemporal government budget constraint. using error correction method of analysis, the study revealed that fiscal policy was weakly sustainable in the economy of nigeria. this study therefore recommends that government should improve on her tax revenue generation and other source of income but limit her expenditure to growth enhancing projects. agu et al., (2014) examined the impact of various components of fiscal policy on the nigerian economy from 1961 to 2010. descriptive statistics was used to show contribution of government fiscal policy to economic growth. an ols in a multiple form was used to ascertain the relationship between economic growth and government expenditure components after ensuring data stationarity. findings revealed that total government expenditures have tended to increase with government revenue, with expenditures peaking faster than revenue. investment expenditures were much lower than recurrent expenditures evidencing the poor growth in the country’s economy. hence there is some evidence of positive correlation between government expenditure on economic services and economic growth. an increase in budgetary allocation to economic services will lead to an enhancement in economic stability. awode fiscal policy management and private investment in nigeria jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 15 mgbemena, nwogwugwu and chris (2015) investigated the determinants of private investment in nigeria’s manufacturing sub-sector between the periods 1975 to 2013 using annual time series data sourced from central bank of nigeria statistical bulletin of various issues. in carrying out the study, econometric techniques were employed to analyze the data collected. however, stationary and co-integration tests of the variables were examined using augmented dickey – fuller and johansen co-integration tests respectively. also, an endogenous growth model was specified and estimated using error correction mechanism (ecm) technique in order to test for the dynamic characteristics of the variables in the model. the results show that the main determinant of private investment in the manufacturing subsector of the nigerian economy is interest rate, exchange rate and public sector investment. the study concludes that the empirically identified factors influencing private sector investment should be well – managed by the government to boost private investment in the manufacturing subsector and to ensure to the complete diversification of the nigerian economy. agu (2015) discussed the determinants of private investment in nigeria from 1970 – 2012. the study employs the error-correction modeling procedure which minimizes the likelihood of estimating spurious relations, while at the same time retaining long-run information. the results of the analysis show that the investment rate is positively correlated with both the growth rate of disposable income and the real interest rate on bank deposits. the study discovered that investment has been slowed down in nigeria as a result of increased lending rate, reduced public expenditure, reduced savings, political instability and inadequate infrastructure. the study recommends among others things that the focus of development policy in nigeria should be to increase the productive base of the economy in order to promote real income growth and reduce unemployment. for this to be achieved, a diversification of the country’s resource base is indispensable. babalola (2015) examined the short and long run impact of fiscal policy on economic development in nigeria between a period of 1981 and 2013 using annual time series data and var model. the study used government recurrent expenditure, government capital expenditure, government investment and tax revenue to indicate fiscal policy. economic development was proxy by real per capita income. the model was estimated using pairwise correlation to ascertain the relationship and then co-integration and error correction mechanism for impact after confirming the data’s stationarity using unit root. the result showed that government recurrent expenditure and government investment have significant positive impact on economic development in both the short and long run within the period under consideration. capital expenditure appeared to have a short run positive impact but not in the long run. tax revenue had an inverse significant impact in both short and long run. the speed of adjustment to equilibrium was found to be high. the results are all in line with theories and previous studies. research method the accelerator theory and the neoclassical theory of investment are the theories upon which this study is based, owing to the fact that they present investment as a positive function of growth in real output (accelerator theory) and the user cost of capital as well awode fiscal policy management and private investment in nigeria jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 16 as level of output (neoclassical theory). we also introduce the keynesian-classical crowding in/crowding out argument as a third theoretical underpinning to justify the introduction of fiscal policy variables in the model. in analyzing the impact of fiscal policy on private investment in nigeria, we shall derive a basic investment model that reflects the behavior of investment in a developing country context. this enables us to build on the accelerator and neoclassical theories and also include fiscal policy variables in line with the classical-keynesian argument about crowding out/crowding in. hence, we consider the relation proposed by jorgensen (1967) as to the maximization function of a firm:   −  − −−== 00 )]()()()()()([)(max)0( dtetltwtitstytpedtetev rtrt   (1) subject to: )()( tkti dt dk −= where 𝐾(0) is given (2) where π(t) denotes profit, p(t) denotes output price, s(t) denotes capital price, w(t) is the wage, y(t) denotes output, i(t) denotes investment, l(t) denotes labor, δ denotes depreciation and e is the expectations operator conditional on the information set, ϕ, available for the firm in each period. by optimizing this relation, we are able to determine jorgenson’s optimal capital stock of the firm as follows: c yp k  = * (3) transforming this, we have a relation between desired optimal capital stock(𝐾∗), price of output (p), output (y) and user cost of capital (c).   − = itititit cypk * (4) where ∅ and σ represent the distribution parameter and the constant elasticity of substitution between capital stock and labour respectively. an investment function generally entails gross investment being split up into net investment and the replacement components of worn out capital. in this analysis, we are concerned with the net investment component and as thus, we ignore the replacement component. the net investment component (𝐼𝑖𝑡 𝑛 ) is equal to the change in desired capital stock: * t n it ki = (5) awode fiscal policy management and private investment in nigeria jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 17 substituting (4) into (5) and assuming a unitary elasticity of substitution between capital and labour and adding the error term, we are able to derive our investment model as follows: ititititit cpyi  +++= 321 (6) we now augment equation (6) with fiscal policy variables. following the work of malik (2013), we disaggregate fiscal policy into its revenue and expenditure components. this disaggregation is informed by the need to evaluate the effect of different fiscal policy components on private investment and determine whether there is a crowding in or crowding out. we also further disaggregate expenditure into productive and nonproductive expenditure; and revenue into distortionary and non-distortionary revenue. productive expenditure is government expenditure that is expected to enter the production function of private firms, increasing returns to investment and fostering economic growth. according to soli et al (2008), productive expenditure enters the production function of private firms while non-productive expenditure only ends up in the utility function. for the purpose of the study, we define productive expenditure as capital expenditure while non-productive expenditure entails all forms of recurrent expenditure (e.g. wage and salary bill of the public services and purchases of goods and services by the government). on the revenue side, distortionary revenue is one which serves as a disincentive to invest (save), hence, exerts a negative influence on economic growth. revenues which encourage savings and exert positive influence on growth are nondistortionary. although they may affect the labour/leisure choice, they do not reduce returns to investment. we shall assume that direct taxes (property and income taxes) are distortionary in nature while indirect taxes (consumption-based taxes) and non-tax revenue are non-distortionary. the econometric model to be used for estimation is specified thus:   = = +++= n j ttk n k tjjt fpxpi 1 1 k  (7) 𝑃𝐼𝑖𝑡 is private investment (is indicated by gross fixed capital formation), 𝑋𝑖𝑡𝑗 is a set of j conditioning variables (i.e. inflation (x1) and domestic credit to private sector (x2)), 𝐹𝑃𝑖𝑡𝑘 is a set of k fiscal policy variables (i.e. capital expenditure (fp1), recurrent expenditure (fp2), direct taxes (fp3), indirect taxes (fp4) and non-tax revenue (fp5), 𝛼 is intercept or constant term; 𝛽1−2 and 𝛿1−5 represent the various parameter estimates measuring the impacts of the explanatory variables and 𝜇𝑡 is the error term. the a priori expectations of the signs of the parameters of the model are given as follows: 𝛽1 > 0, 𝛽2 > 0, 𝛽3 > 0, 𝛿1 > 0, 𝛿2 < 0, 𝛿3 < 0, 𝛿4 > 0, 𝛿5 > 0 the neoclassical theory informs the a priori expectations for changes in price level (inflation) which is positively related to investment (i.e. 𝛽1 > 0). the relationship between awode fiscal policy management and private investment in nigeria jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 18 domestic credit to private sector and private sector investment is also expected to be positive (i.e. 𝛽3 > 0). with regards to the fiscal policy variables, the a priori expectation is that productive expenditures (which enter the production functions of firms) (i.e. capital expenditure) and non-distortionary revenue (which do not reduce returns to investment) are positively related to private investment. in other words, the coefficients of capital expenditure, indirect taxes, non-tax revenue are expected to be positive (i.e. 𝛿1, 𝛿4, 𝛿5 > 0). on the other hand, unproductive expenditures (i.e. re-current expenditure) and distortionary revenue are hypothesized to be negatively related to private investment (i.e. 𝛿2, 𝛿3 < 0). the data employed in this study are secondary data. the study employed annual time series data spanning through the period of 1987-2015. the choice of time frame was informed by the numerous fiscal policy reforms that took place since the adoption of structural adjustment program (sap) in nigeria in 1986. the data series were adapted from the cbn statistical bulletin (2015) and world bank development indicators (2015). in analyzing the relationship between fiscal policy and private investment in nigeria, the study made use of a 2-stage econometric procedure. first, the augmented dickey-fuller (adf) test was undertaken to ascertain the order of integration of the variables, and then the auto regressive and distributed lag (ardl) model was employed to account for longrun and short-run relationship in the model. the ardl model was introduced originally by pesaran and shin (1999) and further extended by pesaran et al. (2001). the ardl approach has the advantage that it does not require all variables to be i(1) as the johansen framework and it is still applicable if we have i(0) and i(1) variables in our set. result and discussion descriptive statistic and correlation matrix this study commenced its empirical analysis by examining the characteristics of the variables of estimate. from table 1, standard deviation showed that inflation rate (19.295) was the most volatile variable in the time series while domestic credit to private sector (0.34) was the least volatile variable. the skewness statistic showed that capital expenditure (cexp), recurrent expenditure (rexp) and non-tax revenue (ntr) were negatively skewed while private investment (pi), domestic credit to private sector (dcps), inflation rate (inf), direct tax (dtax) and indirect tax (itax) were positively skewed. the kurtosis statistics showed that private investment, capital expenditure, recurrent expenditure, direct tax, indirect tax and non-tax revenue were platykurtic, suggesting that their distributions were flat relative to normal distribution while domestic credit to private sector and interest rate were leptokurtic, suggesting that their distributions were peaked relative to normal distribution. finally, the jarque-bera statistic rejected the null hypothesis of normal distribution for domestic credit to private sector, interest rate and indirect tax at five percent critical value while the null hypotheses of normal distribution for the other variables were accepted at the same critical value. awode fiscal policy management and private investment in nigeria jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 19 table 1 descriptive statistics variables log (pi) log (dcps) inf log (cexp) log (rexp) log (dtax) log (itax) log (ntr) mean 26.968 23.338 21.131 26.082 26.738 26.391 24.240 26.193 std. dev. 2.102 0.340 19.295 1.554 1.793 0.948 0.604 2.093 skewness 0.096 1.555 1.438 -0.889 -0.357 0.591 0.941 -0.284 kurtosis 1.931 5.684 3.585 2.585 1.773 1.590 2.094 1.562 jarque-bera 1.424 20.394 10.406 4.027 2.436 4.090 5.268 2.890 probability 0.491 0.000 0.006 0.134 0.296 0.129 0.072 0.236 observations 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 source: author, 2018 the result in table 2 gives a preliminary idea of the relationship among private investment (pi), domestic credit to private sector (dcps), inflation rate (inf), capital expenditure (cexp), recurrent expenditure (rexp), direct tax (dtax), indirect tax (itax) and non-tax revenue (ntr). a brief look at the table shows that dcps has a positive relationship with pi, inf has a negative relationship with both pi and dcps, cexp has a positive relationship with both pi and dcps but a negative relationship with inf, rexp has a positive relationship with pi, dcps and cexp but a negative relationship with inf, dtax has a positive relationship with pi, dcps, cexp and rexp but a negative relationship with inf, itax has a positive relationship with pi, dcps, cexp, rexp and dtax but a negative relationship with inf, while ntr has a positive relationship with pi, dcps, cexp, rexp, dtax and itax but a positive relationship with inf. however, correlation should not be seen as causality. this is because correlation between two totally unrelated series could be strong while causality between the same variables may be non-existent. table 2 correlation matrix of the datasets log (pi) log (dcps) inf log (cexp) log (rexp) log (dtax) log (itax) log (ntr) log(pi) 1.0000 log(dcps) 0.4026 1.0000 inf -0.5019 -0.2458 1.0000 log(cexp) 0.9081 0.4619 -0.5298 1.0000 log(rexp) 0.9697 0.4763 -0.5251 0.9470 1.0000 log(dtax) 0.8264 0.5362 -0.3841 0.6645 0.7515 1.0000 log(itax) 0.8686 0.3871 -0.3721 0.6480 0.7600 0.9460 1.0000 log(ntr) 0.9558 0.5059 -0.5560 0.9309 0.9886 0.7553 0.7477 1.0000 source: author, 2018 the time series properties of the variables was conducted using augmented dickey fuller (adf) test and the results from this test showed that all the variables were integrated of order one, suggesting that the variables are i(1) series, except recurrent expenditure which was integrated of order zero suggesting that the variable is i(0) series. the appropriate modus operandi of analysis that captures the combination of i(1) and i(0) series variables, according to pesaran et al., (2001), is the autoregressive distributed lag (ardl) model. awode fiscal policy management and private investment in nigeria jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 20 table 3 unit root test result augmented dickey fuller (adf) test variables level 1st difference status log(pi) 1.3753 -3.8985 i(1) log(dcps) -0.9181 -4.6656 i(1) inf -1.6091 -5.6407 i(1) log(cexp) 0.1069 -6.6632 i(1) log(rexp) -3.5327 i(0) log(dtax) 0.6397 -3.7415 i(1) log(itax) 0.8281 -2.3770 i(1) log(ntr) 0.2579 -3.0410 i(1) critical values level 1st difference 1% -2.6501 -2.6534 5% -1.9534 -1.9539 10% -1.6098 -1.6096 source: author, 2018 lag length selection the next step in our analysis is to select the optimal lag length for the cointegration equation based on the hypothesis that the residuals are serially uncorrelated. the lag length which minimizes the akaike information criterion (aic), schwarz criterion (sc) and the hannan-quinn criterion (hqc) and at which the model does not have autocorrelation is the optimal lag length. for this analysis, we made use of the akaike information criterion (aic) as the choice for the selection of our optimal lag length. based on the result in table 4, the lag length which minimizes akaike information criterion (aic) is lag two, and thus becomes our optimal lag length. given our optimal lag length, we can proceed to test for long-run relationship among the variables. table 4 lag length selection criteria lag length aic sc 1 319.0835 321.7479 2 318.8389* 319.8782 source: author, 2018 fiscal policy and private investment nexus in nigeria the bound test to investigate the presence of long-run relationships among the variables, the bound testing under pesaran et al., (2001) procedure is used. the bound testing procedure is based on the f-test. the f-test is basically a test of the assumption of no cointegration among the variables against the premise of its existence, denoted as: 𝐻0: 𝛽1 = 𝛽2 = 𝛽3 = 𝛽4 = 𝛽5 = 0 i.e., there is no cointegration among the variables. awode fiscal policy management and private investment in nigeria jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 21 𝐻1: 𝛽1 ≠ 𝛽2 ≠ 𝛽3 ≠ 𝛽4 ≠ 𝛽5 ≠ 0 i.e., there is cointegration among the variables. table 5 bound test result f-statistics 1% 5% 10% 22.87356 lower bound upper bound lower bound upper bound lower bound upper bound 2.96 4.26 2.32 3.5 2.03 3.13 source: author, 2018 the result of the computed f-value after each variable has been normalised is presented in table 4.5. the f-test for the joint significance of the lagged variables was conducted using the bound test. the 1% lower and upper bound critical values are 2.96 and 4.26 respectively. the calculated f-value suggests the existence of long-run relationship among the variables since the test statistics of 22.87356 is above the upper bound critical value. short-run relationship the estimated results presented in table 6 explained the short-run relationship between fiscal policy and private investment in nigeria. the independent variables explained approximately 99.9% of the total variations in the dependent variable. this showed that the model had a very high goodness of fit. the value of the f-statistic was statistically significant at 1% level indicating that the model was significant. the value of the durbinwatson statistic was close to 2 implying that the model had no serial correlation problem. table 6 ardl short-run relationship result dependent variable: dlog(pi) variable coefficient std. error t-statistic prob. c 0.195285 0.021746 8.980253 0.0003** dlog(pi(-1)) -0.199574 0.039789 -5.015752 0.1253 dlog(pi(-2)) -0.103601 0.024830 -4.172379 0.1498 dlog(dcps) -0.351385 0.029437 -11.936967 0.0532 dlog(dcps(-1)) -0.123952 0.022142 -5.598021 0.1125 d(inf) 0.008304 0.000398 20.851929 0.0305* d(inf(-1)) -0.011403 0.000618 -18.441266 0.0345* dlog(cexp) -0.024045 0.029844 -0.805688 0.5682 dlog(cexp(-1)) -0.894029 0.039636 -22.556078 0.0282* dlog(rexp) 0.144767 0.021959 6.592707 0.0958 dlog(rexp(-1)) 0.812705 0.043514 18.676802 0.0341* dlog(dtax) -0.007489 0.040732 -0.183859 0.8842 dlog(dtax(-1)) 0.101294 0.030023 3.373856 0.1834 dlog(itax) 2.040958 0.157551 12.954181 0.0490* dlog(itax(-1)) -1.330800 0.118014 -11.276629 0.0563 dlog(ntr) 0.189492 0.022574 8.394137 0.0755 dlog(ntr(-1)) -0.972824 0.026890 -36.178263 0.0176* ect(-1) -1.399829 0.048953 -28.595296 0.0223* r-squared 0.999894 akaike info criterion -7.470901 adjusted r-squared 0.999446 schwarz criterion -6.261193 f-statistic 28765.29** durbin-watson stat 1. 838546 note: *(**) implies 5% (1%) significance level source: author, 2018 awode fiscal policy management and private investment in nigeria jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 22 the result showed that in the short-run, private investment had a significant negative relationship with one period lag value of inflation rate at 5% level. a unit increase in the one period lag value of inflation rate leads to approximately 0.01 decrease in private investment level. also, the coefficient of one period lag value of capital expenditure was negative and statistically significant at 5% level of significance. this implies that, in the short run, a unit increase in the value of one period lag value of capital expenditure leads to approximately 0.89 decrease in the value of private investment. furthermore, the coefficients of one period lag value of non-tax revenue was negative and statistically significant at 5% level of significance, indicating that a unit increase in one period lag value of non-tax revenue leads to approximately 0.02 decreases in the value of private investment in the short-run. in addition, the result showed that in the short-run, private investment had a significant positive relationship inflation rate at 5% level of significance. a unit increase in the level of inflation rate leads to approximately 0.01 increase in private investment level. also, the coefficient of one period lag value of recurrent expenditure was positive and statistically significant at 5% level of significance. this implies that, in the short run, a unit increase in the value of one period lag value of recurrent expenditure leads to approximately 0.81 increase in the value of private investment. furthermore, the coefficient of indirect tax was negative and statistically significant at 5% level of significance, indicating that a unit increase in the value of indirect tax leads to approximately 2.04 increase in the value of private investment in the short run. having established the long-run relationship and co-movement among the variables, there was a need to examine the speed of adjustment that took all the variables to converge in the long-run. this test was done using error correction mechanism (ecm). the principle behind the result of the ecm was that the coefficient of the ecm must be negative and significance at 5% level. however, this would be used to calculate the speed of adjustment. that is, the time it takes the variables to converge in the long-run. therefore, the coefficient of the ecm was negative and significant at 5% as evidence in the table 6. long-run relationship table 7 ardl long-run relationship result dependent variable: log(pi) variable coefficient std. error t-statistic prob. c -16.208694 1.098862 -14.750432 0.0431* log(dcps) -0.479298 0.027763 -17.264182 0.0368* inf 0.016652 0.000874 19.045234 0.0334* log(cexp) 0.585115 0.014581 40.128978 0.0159* log(rexp) -0.810126 0.067786 -11.951218 0.0531 log(dtax) -0.299658 0.066659 -4.495365 0.1393 log(itax) 1.699040 0.099550 17.067142 0.0373* log(ntr) 1.046006 0.047476 22.032158 0.0289* r-squared 0.999894 akaike info criterion -7.470901 adjusted r-squared 0.999446 schwarz criterion -6.261193 f-statistic 28765.29** durbin-watson stat 1. 838546 note: *(**) implies 5% (1%) significance level source: author, 2018 awode fiscal policy management and private investment in nigeria jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 23 sequel to the co-integration estimate, this study proceeds to analyze the relationship between fiscal policy and private investment in nigeria. from the regression estimate presented on table 7, the f-statistic (28765.29) showed that the model was well specified and it was statistically significant at 1% level of significant. the coefficient of determination (r2) of the model was very high (99%) indicating that independent variables explained total variation of about 99% of variations in exchange rate, while the durbin-watson stat. of 1.83 showed that the estimate from the regression model can be used for policy inference. the regression estimate showed that recurrent expenditure and direct tax had negative but insignificant effect on private investment in nigeria. as observed in the regression estimate presented in table 7, the effects of recurrent expenditure and direct tax were insignificant in influencing private investment over the study periods. in contrast to the above, three of the measures of fiscal policy used (capital expenditure, indirect tax and non-tax revenue) had positive and significant effects on private investment in nigeria. specifically, a unit increase in capital expenditure, indirect tax and non-tax revenue would lead to an increase in private investment by 0.59, 1.70 and 1.05 respectively. also, the coefficient of inflation rate was positive and statistically significant at 5% level of significance. this implies that a unit increase in inflation rate leads to approximately 0.02 decrease in private investment. with respect to domestic credit to private sector, the regression estimate on table 7 showed that domestic credit to private sector had negative but significant effect on private investment in nigeria. this suggests that an increase in the domestic credit to private sector would result in a decrease in exchange rate by 0.48. the rationale behind the negative relationship between domestic credit to private sector and private investment is that when interest rates are too high, it discourages investors from accessing credits from the banks, and subsequently decreases private investment in the economy. also some of those who take the loans at such outrageous rates simply abscond with the money and never invest it. that is why we have several cases of loan defaults in nigeria today. with respect to the focus of this study, the regression estimate showed that some fiscal policy variables positively and significantly influenced private investment in nigeria. this implies that the increase in capital expenditure, indirect tax and non-tax revenue over the period of this study had caused an increase in the level of investment in the country. this suggests that fiscal policy variables are factors influencing private investment in nigeria. post-estimation results in addition to the regression estimates, this study conducted some diagnostic tests such as the residual tests (which include normality test and heteroscedasticity arch test). the f-statistics of the heteroscedasticity arch test was insignificant confirming the absence of serial correlation in the residual of the regression estimate. the implication is that the regression estimate was appropriately estimated. from figure 1, the jarque-bera statistics of the normality test was insignificant suggesting that the residual of the regression estimate is normally distributed. awode fiscal policy management and private investment in nigeria jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 24 table 8 heteroscedasticity test: breusch-pagan-godfrey f-statistic 0.829325 prob. f(8,17) 0.5890 obs*r-squared 7.298604 prob. chi-square(8) 0.5048 source: author, 2018 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 -0.004 -0.002 0.000 0.002 0.004 0.006 series: residuals sample 1990 2015 observations 26 mean -1.09e-14 median 0.000253 maximum 0.005275 minimum -0.004497 std. dev. 0.002251 skewness -0.012225 kurtosis 2.898145 jarque-bera 0.011887 probability 0.994074 figure 1 normality test source: author, 2018 conclusion the study noted that there was a long-run positive and significant relationship between private investment and inflation, capital expenditure, indirect tax and non-tax revenue, and a long-run negative and significant relationship between private investment and domestic credit to private sector. it was discovered that a crowding-in relationship exists between capital expenditure and private investment giving credence to the keynesian argument which is theoretically fit to the characteristics of developing economies (including nigeria) such as excess capacity, unemployment, etc. the effect of recurrent expenditure is negative but insignificant. hence, the results generally show a crowding-in effect of total expenditure. another major finding from the study is that indirect tax revenue has positive and significant relationship with private investment, i.e. it is nondistortionary. this can be attributed to the low effectiveness of the indirect tax system of nigeria which limits the distortionary effect of taxes on the economy at macro level. the rationale behind the negative relationship between domestic credit to private sector and private investment is that when interest rates are too high, it discourages investors from accessing credits from the banks, and subsequently decreases private investment in the economy. also some of those who take the loans at such outrageous rates simply abscond with the money and never invest it. that is why we have several cases of loan defaults in nigeria today. recommendations the study advocates for more public investment in capital project. this is believed to stimulate private sector investment and in turn, spur economic growth. the tax system should also be restructured to ensure that more revenue comes from indirect tax sources. awode fiscal policy management and private investment in nigeria jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 25 this is because as indirect tax is found to be non-distortionary, increases in revenue from this source would not disrupt investment decisions of the private sector. also, the tax system should generally be made favorable towards private sector investments e.g. through tax incentives. in the same vein, private sector investment should be encouraged owing to its causal effect on growth which has been theoretically and empirically proven to be positive. fiscal policy variables with significant crowding in effect should be more efficiently utilized to stimulate private investment so as to impact growth positively over time. references abata, m. a, kehinde j. s. & bolarinwa s. a. 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(2015). fiscal policy and economic development in nigeria. journal of economics and sustainable development. 6(7), 150-159. isaac, m. k., & samwel, k. c. (2012). effects of fiscal policy on private investment and economic growth in kenya. journal of economics and sustainable development, 3(7), 8-16. isaksson, a. (2001). financial liberalization, foreign aid and capital mobility: evidence from developing countries, journal of international financial markets, institutions and money, 11(34), 309-338. https://doi.org/10.1016/s1042-4431(01)00042-7 jorgensen, d. (1967). the theory of investment behaviors, in determinants of investment. national bureau of economic research, 129-155. kajimbwa, m. (2013). new public management: a tribute to margaret thatcher. public policy and administration research, 3(5), 64-69. malik, a. 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(2012). fiscal policy interaction with private investment: the case of the baltic states. inzinerine ekonomika-engineering economics, 23(3), 233-241. https://doi.org/10.5755/j01.ee.23.3.1934 https://doi.org/10.12816/0003892 https://doi.org/10.1086/452103 https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616 https://doi.org/10.5755/j01.ee.23.3.1934 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 22 nomor 2, oktober 2021 article type: research paper productivity growth and local content requirement of the manufacturing industry in banten province diasitta yusuf ¹, muhammad firdaus², and alla asmara2 abstract: productivity growth needs to be optimized not only to produce quality products, increase exports, and reduce dependence on imports but also to support the performance of the manufacturing sector. this study aims to determine the manufacturing industry map in banten province, measure manufacturing industry productivity growth, and analyze the effect of local content requirement (lcr) on manufacturing industry productivity growth from 2005 to 2017 by employing the use of k-means cluster and panel data regression analysis. for this purpose, total factor productivity (tfp) is the indicator used to measure productivity growth. the lcr is known as the percentage of local raw and auxiliary materials used in the production process. according to k-means cluster analysis results, industrial companies are grouped into three clusters with different characteristics. the result of panel data regression analysis shows that the tfp of all manufacturing industry sub-sectors has increased and was influenced by lcr, total production, domestic investment, import, and provincial minimum wage. as a result, the government should integrate the lcr and other policies, such as the indonesian national standard, to increase productivity growth. keywords: k-means cluster; lcr; manufacturing industry; panel data; tfp jel classification: c38, l60, c33 introduction the economic structure based on the national long-term development plan from 2005 to 2025 was reinforced by placing the industrial sector as the driving force, supported by the agricultural, marine, and mining (bappenas, 2007). in the java island region, the manufacturing industry sector in west java, banten, and central java provinces has contributed the most to the value of gross regional domestic product (grdp) from 2016 to 2018 (statistics indonesia, 2019). the contribution of the manufacturing industry sector in banten province experienced the most decline with an average of 0.71 percent per year. as a leading sector, the manufacturing industry sector in banten province has an important role in shaping the total value of grdp and its regression has greatly produced an impact to its economy. from 2010 to 2018, the manufacturing industry sector had the most output value compared to other sectors, on average reaching 37.24 percent of the total grdp of banten province with an average growth of 6.04 percent per year. affiliation: 1 statistics of bogor regency, west java, indonesia 2 department of economics, faculty of economics and management, institut pertanian bogor, west java, indonesia *correspondence: diasitta_yusuf@apps.ipb.ac.id this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v22i2.11369 citation: yusuf, d., firdaus, m., & asmara, a. (2021). productivity growth and local content requirement of the manufacturing industry in banten province. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 22(2), 154-169. article history received: 24 mar 2021 revised: 11 july 2021 23 aug 2021 accepted: 09 sep 2021 https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorid=57204838013 https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?user=mippilcaaaaj&hl=en https://bogorkab.bps.go.id/ https://bogorkab.bps.go.id/ https://ekonomi.ipb.ac.id/ https://ekonomi.ipb.ac.id/ https://ekonomi.ipb.ac.id/ https://ekonomi.ipb.ac.id/ mailto:diasitta_yusuf@apps.ipb.ac.id http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/11369 https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v22i1.7836&domain=pdf https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v22i2.11369&domain=pdf yusuf, firdaus, & asmara productivity growth and local content requirement … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 155 according to rahmayani and sugiyanto (2014), the economic growth of a region is determined by the level of productivity of its production factor components. productivity means a combination of effectiveness in producing outputs and efficient use of inputs. productivity measurements can be carried out on each input separately (partial) or all inputs (total). total productivity measurement is carried out on several inputs by using the total factor productivity (tfp). tfp is an indicator used to measure productivity growth and is part of the output which may not be explained by some of the inputs used in the production process (bppt, 2012). analysis of productivity growth in the manufacturing industry sector needs to be carried out to see the sustainability of output growth (surjaningsih & permono, 2014) and to identify sources of output growth that will help policymakers identify factors that contribute to industrial development (mustapha et al., 2013). the manufacturing industry is an economic activity that carries out activities to change a basic good into finished or semi-finished goods, and or goods of less value to goods of higher value. based on the number of workers, the manufacturing industry sector is divided into four groups: large industry, medium industry, small industry, and home industry (statistics indonesia, 2018). from 2010 to 2017 the number of medium large industry (mli) labor has always increased, but labor productivity has decreased in 2011, 2016, and 2017. a reduction in labor productivity may partially affect total productivity and ultimately affect the contribution of the manufacturing industry sector to the grdp of banten province. industrial productivity needs to be optimized to produce better quality products, to increase added value and competitiveness. strategies that can be taken to increase industrial competitiveness are to improve the quality of human resources and provide incentives to industries that can carry out and increase the proportion of raw materials (nuraini & setiartiti, 2017). consequently, this will lead to an increase in exports while reducing dependence on imported products. the changes in exports and imports will affect economic growth in the region through production, consumption, and distribution (astuti & ayuningtyas, 2018). the value and growth of export and import of banten province are shown in figure 1. figure 1 value and growth of export and import of banten province 2010-2017 source: statistics indonesia, 2018 yusuf, firdaus, & asmara productivity growth and local content requirement … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 156 based on figure 1, it may be seen that from 2010 to 2017, the export value of the oil and gas sector has decreased by an average of 0.49 percent per year. meanwhile, the export value of the non-oil and gas sector has increased. in this case, the average export value of the non-oil and gas sector for agricultural products increased by 48.42 percent, industrial products increased by 6.03 percent, and mining and other products increased by 89.01 percent per year. furthermore, the import value increased from 2010 to 2017. on average, the import value of consumer goods products increased by 117.53 percent, raw and auxiliary material products increased by 7.37 percent, and capital goods products increased by 8.42 percent per year. overall, the export value of banten province increased by 4.90 percent per year or less than the increase in import value which reached 7.05 percent per year. this means that banten province has a fairly high level of dependence on imported products, especially on products of raw and auxiliary materials. one of the government efforts made to increase industrial productivity, increase export, and reduce dependence on imported products at the same time is by establishing a local content requirement (lcr) policy. based on the regulation of the minister of industry no.16/m-ind/per/2/2011, lcr is defined as a limit or value that represents the level of local content requirement in a product or service. in the industrial sector, the lcr policy is carried out to strengthen, expand, and deepen the national industrial structure, both to the import substitution industry strategy and the export-oriented industrial strategy. based on government regulation no.29/2018, domestic products that must be used in the procurement of goods and services must have a total lcr value and a company benefit weight (cbw) value of at least 40 percent or an lcr value of at least 25 percent. research results that related to productivity growth and local component requirement using cluster analysis and panel data were used as reference and comparison to this research. several previous research on the factors affecting productivity growth has shown different results. the research of budiwati and yunanto (2013) shows that the factors that influence the total factor productivity (tfp). are inflation, net export, r&d budgets, and the level of education of workers. on the other hand, fazri et al. (2018) show that export, foreign investment, and domestic investment affect tfp. research by de souza and da cunha (2018) shows that productivity decreased in the industrial sector, while productivity increased in the agricultural sector and service sector. several previous research on the effects and benefits of local content requirement (lcr) policy has shown different results. the research of negara (2016) shows that there is an effect of imported inputs on the level of productivity, added value, output, exports, and the number of jobs in the manufacturing sector in indonesia. kolstad and kinyondo (2016) shows that the lcr policy has less influence on countries that already have natural resources than countries that have just discovered natural resources (oil). research by deringer et al. (2018) shows that the lcr policy in the heavy vehicle industry affects increasing output in brazil, russia, india, china, and south africa (brics). at the same time, the increase in output has an adverse side effect such as changes in prices. changes in prices will have a greater impact on the overall economic sector than the gains in industrial output in a particular subsector. to fill in the gaps from the limitations of previous research, it is needed to conduct research that can see more thoroughly the effect of lcr and other factors on productivity growth. this research will show how the lcr influences the productivity of the yusuf, firdaus, & asmara productivity growth and local content requirement … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 157 manufacturing industry even at a more specific level, specifically at the sub-sector level of the manufacturing industry. previous research has discussed the productivity growth of the manufacturing industry and lcr policy separately and has not seen the relationship. in this case, the discussion on the productivity growth of the manufacturing industry focused more at a regional level or on the industrial sector as a whole and was not specific to the industrial sub-sector level. the discussions on lcr policy also focused more on achieving lcr targets in industrial sectors. the novelty in this research is to see how the relationship between lcr policy and manufacturing industry productivity growth at a specific level, namely the manufacturing industry sub-sector. in addition, this study aims to determine how the manufacturing industry maps, measures the manufacturing industry growth and analyze the factors that affect the manufacturing industry productivity growth in banten province. the results of this research are expected to give recommendations to the government and business actors to decide the right lcr policy to increase productivity and develop the manufacturing industry sector. research method data types and sources the data type used is secondary data with panel data of 836 medium large industry (mli) from 20 manufacturing industry sub-sectors from 2005 to 2017. the data sources used are from the annual mli survey conducted by statistics indonesia of banten province, and the ministry of investment. in this case, data related to output, input, export, import, lcr, and minimum wage were obtained from statistics indonesia. data related to the value of a domestic and foreign investment were obtained from the ministry of investment. the data obtained are then selected and adjusted to the research method, resulting in balanced panel data. research variable this research used variables which were determined based on the research objectives. the variables used to determine the manufacturing industry map consist of five independent variables, which are output, input which is in the form of capital, labor, and intermediate inputs, and lcr from each mli. the variables used to measure the manufacturing industry productivity growth consist of one dependent variable and three independent variables. the dependent variable is the output, and the dependent variables are capital, labor force, and intermediate input. the variables used to analyze the effect of lcr and other factors on manufacturing industrial productivity growth consist of one dependent variable and six independent variables. the dependent variable is tfp, and the dependent variables are lcr, total production, domestic investment, foreign investment, export, import, and minimum wage generated by the manufacturing sub-sector. the description of variables is shown in table 1. yusuf, firdaus, & asmara productivity growth and local content requirement … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 158 table 1 the description of variables no. research objectives variables definition 1 determine manufacturing industry map y output c capital l labor force i intermediate input lcr local content requirement 2 measure manufacturing industry productivity growth y output c capital l labor force i intermediate input 3 analyze the effect of local content requirement (lcr) and other factors on manufacturing industry productivity growth tfp total factor productivity lcr local content requirement prod total production div domestic investment fiv foreign investment exp export imp import pmw provincial minimum wage source: statistics indonesia and ministry of investment. method of analysis the analytical method used is descriptive and quantitative analysis. descriptive analysis is used to provide an overview of medium large industry (mli) based on the manufacturing industry sub-sector. descriptive analysis was also carried out by looking at the results of cluster analysis to determine the manufacturing industry map, apart from tables and figures. quantitative analysis used in this research is panel data analysis. panel data analysis is used to measure manufacturing industry productivity growth and analyze the effect of local content requirement (lcr) and other factors on the manufacturing industry productivity growth in banten province. k-means cluster analysis for the manufacturing industry map the cluster analysis method used is the k-means cluster method based on the research of setyaningsih (2012) and karaca (2018). the clusters produced are groups with a high degree of similarity. each cluster will contain very similar data. the stages carried out in the k-means cluster analysis are as follows: (1) determine the number of clusters to be formed, where the number of clusters must be less than the number of data (k <n); (2) randomly determine the center point (centroid) for each cluster; (3) calculate the distance between the data and the centroid in each cluster by using euclidean distance; (4) grouping data based on the closest distance to the centroid; and (5) if all data already have clusters, and there are no data moving clusters, the cluster analysis process has been completed, or it is called convergent. yusuf, firdaus, & asmara productivity growth and local content requirement … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 159 panel data regression analysis for the manufacturing industry productivity growth the variables used to measure the manufacturing industry productivity growth in banten province were determined based on research by mayashinta and firdaus (2014) and fazri et al. (2018). the equation is written as follows: lnyit = 𝛼 + 𝛽₁ lncit + 𝛽₂ lnlit + 𝛽₃ lniit + 𝜀it (1) where: yᵢₜ: output value (million idr), cᵢₜ: capital value (million idr), lᵢₜ: total labor force (people), iᵢₜ: intermediate input value (million idr), 𝛼: constant, 𝛽₁, 𝛽₂, 𝛽₃,: regression coefficient, 𝜀: error term, i: 836 medium large industry, t: period 2005-2017. the manufacturing industry productivity growth is known throughout the total factor productivity (tfp). the tfp concept employs a cobb douglas production function theory framework and a neoclassical growth model. tfp is known as residue, which is the amount of output growth remaining after calculating the growth of measurable factors (bppt, 2012). the equation is written as follows: tfpit = lnyit 𝛽₁ lncit 𝛽₂ lnlit 𝛽₃ lniit (2) where: tfpᵢₜ : productivity growth (percent) panel data regression analysis for the effect of local content requirement and other factors on the manufacturing industry productivity growth the variables used to analyze the effect of local content requirement (lcr) and other factors on the manufacturing industry productivity growth in banten province were determined based on research by mayashinta and firdaus (2014) and negara, (2016). the equation is written as follows: tfpit = α + β1lcrit + β2 lnprodit + β3 lndivit + β4 lnfivit + β5 lnexpit + β6 lnimpit + β7 lnpmwit + 𝜀it (3) where: tfpit: productivity growth (percent), lcrit: local content requirement (percent), prodit: total production value in manufacturing industry sub-sector (million idr), divit: domestic investment value in manufacturing industry sub-sector (million idr), fivit: foreign investment value in manufacturing industry sub-sector (thousand usd), expit: export value in manufacturing industry subsector (thousand usd), impit: import value in manufacturing industry subsector (million idr), pmwit: provincial minimum wage value (idr), α: constant, 𝛽1, 𝛽2, 𝛽3, 𝛽4, β5, β6, β7: regression coefficient, 𝜀: error term, i: 20 manufacturing industry sub-sectors, t: period 2005-2017. yusuf, firdaus, & asmara productivity growth and local content requirement … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 160 the best model selected between the fixed effects model (fem) and the random effects model (rem) was done by using the hausman test firdaus, (2020). a classical regression assumption test was performed to ensure that the panel data model selected has provided the best linear unbias estimator (blue) prediction result. the interpretation of the panel data regression estimation results is carried out by looking at the statistical test results, by the simultaneous significance test (f-test), partial significance test (t-test), and the goodness of fit test that indicated by the coefficient of determination (r-square). result and discussion overview of medium large industry the manufacturing industry sector provided the most contribution, with 37.39 percent of the total grdp of banten province or 127 trillion idr per year. after the manufacturing industry sector, the wholesale, retail trade and repair of cars and motorbikes sector contributed 13.35 percent or 45 trillion idr. the construction sector contributed 8.85 percent or 30 trillion idr, and the real estate sector contributed 7.94 percent or 27 trillion idr. then the transportation and warehousing sectors contributed 6.36 percent or 22 trillion idr. 12 other sectors contributed 26.07 percent or 89 trillion idr to the total grdp of banten province. the manufacturing industry sub-sector that has the largest output value is the chemical and goods made of chemicals (isic 20), which is 95 trillion idr per year or 24.29 percent (statistics indonesia, 2018). based on the number of medium large industry (mli), the largest population of mli comes from the four manufacturing industry sub-sectors, which are the rubber, rubber and plastic goods; the food industry; the chemical and goods made of chemical; and the metal goods, non-machinery and equipment (isic 22, 10, 20 and 25), since this is composed of as many as 1067 mli or 42.43 percent of the total companies. from 2005 to 2017, mli in banten province increased by 55.25 percent. the number of manufacturing industries used in this research was 33.24 percent of the total mli in 2017. most mli samples came from the manufacturing industry sub-sector with isic 22, 20, 25, and 10, that is 367 mli or 43.90 percent of the total mli sample used. the composition of the sample used in this research is sufficient and comparable to the population of mli in banten province. overview of the local content requirement policy the implementation of the local content requirement (lcr) policy for companies does not only apply to the industrial sector but also to government-run projects. to support the production process in the industrial sector, the government may grant import licenses for companies that already have an lcr certificate. besides, the lcr certificate also functions for companies wishing to act as providers of goods and services in government strategic projects. the lcr certificate is issued by a surveyor institute designated by the ministry of industry, such as pt. surveyor indonesia and pt. sucofindo. yusuf, firdaus, & asmara productivity growth and local content requirement … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 161 manufacturing industry map k-means cluster analysis is used to map the manufacturing industry in banten province based on the characteristics equation owned by mli. the data used in cluster analysis is mli data in 2017. the number of clusters used is three clusters. the results of the k-means cluster analysis are shown in table 2. table 2 results of the k-means cluster analysis of manufacturing industry variabel 1st cluster: 2nd cluster: 3rd cluster: 695 mli 21 mli 120 mli output (0.34) 0.48 1.90 capital (0.19) 4.96 0.23 labor force (0.28) 0.86 1.47 intermediate input (0.32) 0.27 1.82 local content requirement 0.06 -0.31 -0.29 based on table 2, the largest number of medium large industry (mli) is in cluster one which is 83.13 percent of the total number of mli in banten province. while the number of mli is at least in cluster two, which is 2.51 percent of the total number of mli in banten province. in general, the results of the analysis of each cluster may be explained as follows: 1. the first cluster consists of 83.13 percent of mli in banten province. based on the estimation results, the total productivity component of the mli in the first cluster is below the average, and the percentage of local content requirement (lcr) is above the average compared to other clusters; 2. the second cluster consists of 2.51 percent of mli in banten province. based on the estimation results, the total productivity component of mli in the second cluster is on average, and the percentage of lcr is below the average compared to others; and 3. the third cluster consists of 14.35 percent of mli in banten province. based on the estimation results, the total productivity component of the mli in the third cluster is above the average and the percentage of lcr is on average compared to others. overall, the results of the cluster k-means analysis show that the companies in the first cluster are mli with low productivity component values and high lcr percentages. companies in the second and third clusters are mli with high productivity component values and low lcr percentages. thus, it may be seen that most of the mli in banten province have low productivity component values and high lcr percentages. this condition may occur because it is suspected that the domestic components used, such as local raw and auxiliary materials, are low-quality products. as a result, the increase in the use of local raw and auxiliary materials did not lead to an increase in the output value produced by each mli, which is indicated by the value of the low productivity component. yusuf, firdaus, & asmara productivity growth and local content requirement … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 162 cluster characteristics the characteristics of each cluster are known based on the distribution of the number of mli according to the administrative area, company location, and manufacturing industry sub-sector (2-digits of isic), as shown in figure 2. based on the regency/city administrative area, the largest number of mli in all clusters came from the regency and the city of tangerang. based on company location, the largest number of mli in all clusters are outside industrial areas. based on the manufacturing industry sub-sector (2digits of isic), the largest number of mli in the first and third clusters came from the rubber, rubber, and plastic goods industrial sub-sector (isic 22) and the chemical and goods made of chemicals industrial sub-sector (isic 20). the second cluster came from the chemical and goods made of chemicals industrial sub-sector (isic 20) and the metal goods, non-machinery, and equipment industrial sub-sector (isic 25). figure 2 numbers of medium large industry by administrative area, company location, and manufacturing industry sub-sector based on isic the characteristics of each cluster are also known based on capital status, business scale, local content requirement (lcr) percentage, and the indonesian national standard (sni) provisions, as shown in figure 3. based on capital status, the largest number of medium large industry (mli) in all clusters is a domestic investment. based on the business scale, the largest number of mli in the first cluster is medium scale industry, while in the second and third clusters, the largest number of mli is large scale industry. based on the percentage of lcr, the largest number of mli in all clusters has met the minimum requirement, which is 25 percent of lcr. based on sni provisions, the highest number of mli in all clusters are mli that do not have an sni certificate. yusuf, firdaus, & asmara productivity growth and local content requirement … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 163 figure 3 numbers of medium large industry by capital status, business scale, percentage of lcr, and provisions of sni overall, it may be seen that the differences in mli characteristics in each cluster occur in terms of administrative areas, industrial sub-sectors based on isic, and business scale. characteristics of the first cluster are mli with a medium industry business scale, which is located in all districts and cities, with the main sub-sector being the rubber, rubber and plastic goods industry sub-sector (isic 22), and the chemical and goods made of chemical industry sub-sector (isic 20). characteristics of the second cluster are the mli with a large industry business scale, which is located in regency and large cities only, with the main sub-sector being the chemical and goods made of chemical industry sub-sector (isic 20) and the metal goods, machines, and equipment industry sub-sector (isic 25). characteristics of the third cluster are the mli with a large industry business scale, which is located in regency and large cities only, with the main sub-sector is the rubber, rubber, and plastic goods industry sub-sector (isic 22) and chemical and goods made of chemical industry sub-sector (isic 20). given that the results of this cluster analysis have not been able to show the relationship between the effect of lcr on the productivity growth of the manufacturing industry, especially over a relatively long period,further analysis is needed, specifically through the use of panel data regression analysis. manufacturing industry productivity growth based on hausman's test results, the resulting probability value is 0.73 which is greater than the α value of 5 percent (0.05). thus, it may be concluded that rem is the best model. the correlation value generated by the variable capital, labor force, and intermediate yusuf, firdaus, & asmara productivity growth and local content requirement … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 164 input is less than 0.80. hence, it is safe to say that there is no multicollinearity problem. based on the heteroscedasticity test results, the probability value generated is 0.00. this means that there is a heteroscedasticity problem. based on the autocorrelation test results, the resulting probability value is 0.50. consequently, we could posit that there is no autocorrelation problem. with a violation of one of the classical regression assumptions in the model, correction is needed, by using a model that is robust to violations of this assumption. the results of panel data regression with a robust model are shown in table 3. table 3 panel data regression results for the manufacturing industry productivity growth variables coefficient standard error z-statistics constant 5.45685 1.521209 3.59 capital (0.0069606) 0.0074406 (0.94) labor force 0.3691084 0.3524136 1.05 intermediate input 0.5391041* 0.0625052 8.62 note: significant at * α= 1%. based on table 3, the f-test results show that the probability value is 0.00, which means that simultaneously, the variables of capital, labor force, and intermediate input have a significant effect on output. the z-test results show that the probability value of the variable capital, labor force, and intermediate input is 0.35; 0.29; and 0.00, which means that the intermediate input variable has a significant effect on output. the goodness of fit test results shows that the coefficient of determination is 0.8278, which means that 82.78 percent of the output diversity may be explained by the variables used. these results are in line with the research conducted by mayashinta and firdaus, (2014) and fazri et al., (2018) which shows that the value of the raw material coefficient is greater than the other variable coefficients. to describe the condition of the manufacturing industry in banten province, total factor productivity (tfp) measurement in this research was carried out by grouping each medium large industry (mli) into 20 manufacturing industry sub-sectors. the tfp values in each manufacturing industry sub-sector are shown in table 4. based on table 4, the average tfp of the manufacturing industry has increased in all industrial sub-sectors. based on the manufacturing industry sub-sector, from 2006 to 2017 the highest average tfp occurred in the chemical and goods made of chemicals industrial sub-sector (isic 20) at 4.61 percent per year. the lowest average tfp occurred in the recording media reproduction and printing industrial sub-sector (isic 18) at 3.45 percent per year. the highest tfp value in the chemical and goods made of chemicals industrial sub-sector (isic 20) is thought to occur because the output value produced by the industrial sub-sector is the largest compared to others. the lowest tfp value in the recording media reproduction and printing industrial sub-sectors (isic 18) is presumed because the output value produced by the industrial sub-sector is the smallest compared to others. overall, from 2006 to 2017 the highest tfp occurred in 2015 and the lowest tfp occurred in 2006 with the manufacturing industry sector in banten province with average yusuf, firdaus, & asmara productivity growth and local content requirement … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 165 productivity growth of 4.39 percent per year. this means that the resulting output is 4.39 times the input used by mli in banten province. a positive tfp value indicates that the output growth that occurs is greater than the input growth. a positive tfp may indicate that the use of production factors is quite efficient. table 4 total factor productivity values by manufacturing industry sub-sector (percent) isic total factor productivity (tfp) average 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2015 2016 2017 10,11 3.69 4 4.1 4.03 4.27 4.27 4.15 4.42 4.08 13 3.78 4.06 4.19 3.93 4.09 4.14 4.32 4.35 4.09 14 3.29 4.59 3.64 3.69 3.82 3.85 3.97 4.26 3.91 15 3.5 3.51 3.58 3.97 4.04 4.24 3.92 3.9 3.75 16 3.36 3.52 3.47 3.2 3.71 3.7 3.7 3.93 3.57 17 3.75 3.78 4.1 4.23 4.07 4.25 4.04 4.13 4.03 18 3.11 2.96 3.34 3.46 3.77 3.56 3.5 3.99 3.45 19 3.6 3.54 3.16 3.51 3.59 3.69 3.55 4.22 3.55 20 4.4 4.37 4.43 4.85 5.16 5.02 4.47 4.43 4.61 21 3.42 3.44 3.55 3.88 4.02 4.05 3.93 3.89 3.71 22 3.67 3.83 3.8 3.88 4.12 4.33 4.41 4.15 3.98 23 3.62 3.53 3.85 4.34 4.26 4.25 4.3 4.19 3.97 24 4.18 4.27 4.13 4.42 4.66 4.33 4.17 4.29 4.37 25 3.81 4.03 4.18 4.34 4.23 4.23 4.19 4.21 4.14 26 3.91 3.56 3.49 3.95 4.16 4.35 3.65 3.85 3.79 27 4.03 3.8 3.93 4.14 4.41 4.22 4.58 4.13 4.07 28 3,63 3.62 3.77 4.07 4.73 5.12 4.06 4.02 3.99 29 3,81 4.14 3.92 4.28 4.52 4.69 4.77 4.56 4.18 30 3,60 3.86 3.99 4.07 4.26 4.31 4.39 4.49 4.04 31,32,33 3,34 3.32 3.53 3.53 3.91 4.12 4.62 4.02 3.69 note: international standard industrial classification (isic) code as follow: 10, 11 food and drink; 13 textiles; 14 finished clothes; 15 leather, articles of leather and footwear; 16 wood, articles of wood and cork (excluding furniture) and wicker articles of bamboo, rattan, and the like; 17 paper and paper articles; 18 recording media reproduction and printing; 19 products from coal and petroleum refining; 20 chemicals and goods made of chemicals; 21 pharmacy, chemical medicinal products, and traditional medicines; 22 rubber, rubber and plastic goods; 23 non-metal minerals; 24 base metals; 25 metal goods, non-machinery and equipment; 26 computers, electronic and optical goods; 27 electrical equipment; 28 machinery and equipment not included in other; 29 motor vehicles, trailers, and semi-trailers; 30 other means of transportation; 31, 32, 33 furniture, other processing, repair services, and installation of machines and equipment. effect of local content requirement and other factors on the manufacturing industry productivity growth based on hausman's test results, the resulting probability value is 0.93 and is greater than the α value of 5 percent (0.05). then, it may be concluded that rem is the best model. the correlation value generated by the variables local content requirement (lcr), production, domestic investment, foreign investment, export, import, and provincial minimum wage (pmw) is smaller than 0.80. with this, we could conclude that there is no multicollinearity problem. based on the heteroscedasticity test results, the probability value generated is 0.00. thus, there is a heteroscedasticity problem. based on the yusuf, firdaus, & asmara productivity growth and local content requirement … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 166 autocorrelation test results, the resulting probability value is 0.06. hence, there is no autocorrelation problem. with a violation of one of the classical regression assumptions in the model, correction is needed, by using a model that is robust to violations of this assumption. the results of panel data regression with a robust model are shown in table 5. table 5 panel data regression results for the effect of local content requirement and others factor on the manufacturing industry productivity growth variables coefficient standard error z-statistics constant (2.336716) 0.8154068 (2.87) local content requirement 0.0036988* 0.0036988 3.25 total production 0.1812462* 0.1812462 5.41 domestic investment 0.0054558*** 0.0054558 1.84 foreign investment 0.0029283 0.0029283 0.91 export (0.0312951) (0.0312951) (1.53) import 0.0249503** 0.0249503 2.61 provincial minimum wage 0.2414062* 0.2414062 3.30 note: significant at * α= 1%, ** α = 5%, *** α = 10% based on table 5, the f-test results show that the probability value is 0.00, which means that simultaneously, the variables of local content requirement (lcr), total production, domestic investment, foreign investment, export, import, and provincial minimum wage (pmw) have a significant effect on the total factor productivity (tfp). the z-test results show that the probability value of the variables lcr, total production, domestic investment, foreign investment, export, import, and pmw is 0.00; 0.00; 0.06, 0.36; 0.13; 0.00; and 0.00, which means that the variables of lcr, production, domestic investment, import, and pmw have a significant effect on the tfp. the goodness of fit test results shows that the coefficient of determination is 0.6215, which means that 62.15 percent of tfp diversity can be explained by the variables used. the results of the panel data regression show that lcr, total production, domestic investment, import, and pmw have a significant positive effect on the tfp following the research hypothesis. the positive effect of lcr is in line with research conducted by negara (2016) and deringer et al. (2018), who show that an increase in lcr in terms of raw material input will support an increase in output. the positive effect of total production is in line with research conducted by mayashinta and firdaus (2014), which shows that an increase in total production in the manufacturing industry sub-sector may increase the efficiency of using production factors or technology absorption. the positive effect of domestic investment is in line with research conducted by fazri et al. (2018), which shows that increasing domestic investment will allow medium large industry (mli) to do more innovations. the positive effect of import is in line with research conducted by negara (2016), which shows that increasing import in terms of raw materials will provide better access to foreign knowledge and technology for local industries. the positive effect of pmw is in line with research conducted by gehringer et al. (2015) and kim (2015), which shows that an increase in pmw will have a positive effect on improving the quality of the labor force so that it may support an increase in output. thus, an increase in lcr, total production, domestic investment, import, and pmw may yusuf, firdaus, & asmara productivity growth and local content requirement … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 167 simultaneously produce higher quality and highly competitive products, thereby increasing productivity growth in the manufacturing sub-sector in banten province. the panel data regression results also show that the biggest factor influencing the productivity growth of the manufacturing industry is the value of pmw and total production. the smallest factor that influences the productivity growth of the manufacturing industry is lcr. this result is not appropriate to the objectives of the lcr policy for the manufacturing industry. the lcr policy is expected to have a big impact on industrial productivity growth. this is thought to have occurred because the lcr components used as raw materials and local support did not have sufficient quality to support increased output and productivity growth in the manufacturing industry. the panel data regression estimation results show that the export variable has no significant effect on the total factor productivity (tfp), which is not following the research hypothesis but in line with research conducted by kim (2015) and yalcinkaya et al. (2016). kim (2015) shows that export has no effect on the tfp in the durable goods and consumables industry sector in japan. yalcinkaya et al. (2016) show that only export products with high technology may have a positive influence on tpf. no significant effect of export may occur because the largest export in banten province is the export of semifinished goods, which may not provide maximum profit. in this case, the industrial subsector that has the largest export value is the chemical and goods made of chemicals (isic 20) with organic chemical products. the panel data regression estimation results show that the foreign investment variable has no significant effect on the tfp, which is not following the research hypothesis but in line with research conducted by budiwati and yunanto (2013). the insignificant influence of foreign investment may occur because the percentage of medium large industry (mli) with foreign investment status in banten province is relatively small compared to domestic investment, which only reaches 15.32 percent, so it does not have a significant effect on the productivity growth of the manufacturing industry. according to the research of jayanti & muqorobin (2017), one of the efforts that can be made to increase the realization of investment value is to create a conducive business climate and increase the competitiveness of the regional economy. conclusion the results of this study contribute to making improvements for the local content requirement (lcr) policy on productivity growth in the manufacturing industry. the contribution given by this recommendation is beneficial for the government and business actors in such a sub-sector. to increase productivity growth, it is recommended to determine the priority industrial sub-sectors that are suitable with lcr policy. the manufacturing industry in banten province is mapped into three clusters. the cluster industry with large scale mli members has a relatively high productivity component value and a relatively low percentage of lcr. meanwhile, the cluster industry with medium scale yusuf, firdaus, & asmara productivity growth and local content requirement … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 168 mli members has a relatively low productivity component value and a relatively high percentage of lcr. all cluster industries show similar characteristics in locations outside the industrial area, domestic investment status, the percentage of lcr that has met the minimum requirement and does not have an indonesian national standard (sni) certificate. the productivity growth of the manufacturing industry in banten province is positive. the highest productivity growth occurred in chemicals and goods made of chemicals by the industrial sub-sector (isic 20). the productivity growth of the manufacturing industry is influenced positively by lcr, total production, domestic investment, import, and pmw. the percentage of lcr has a significant effect, but with the smallest value compared to other factors. this condition shows that lcr policy has not been able to play an important role in the productivity growth of the manufacturing industry. the government should increase the percentage of lcr in the large scale industry and improve the quality of local raw and auxiliary materials used in the medium scale industry. it is recommended for the government to integrate the lcr and sni policy. this is because the government also needs to regulate the location of mli to be in industrial estates, and improve the investment system to increase foreign investment contributions. further research may use labor force and machines for specific lcr components and explore the other benefits or impacts of lcr policy in the manufacturing industry sector. references astuti, i., & ayuningtyas, f. 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(2020). determinants of regional economic growth in indonesia. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 21(1), 125-136. article history received: 7 november 2019 reviewed: 14 april 2020 revised: 18 march 2020 accepted: 19 april 2020 mailto:imamudin@umy.ac.id http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/7435 http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp yuliadi determinants of regional economic growth in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 126 table 1 indonesian macroeconomic indicators economic indicators year 2016 2017 2018 growth of gross domestic product (%) 5 5,1 5,3 inflation (% per year) 3 3,5 3,5 government debt (% from pdb) 28,3 28,7 29,8 currency rate (idr/usd) 13.309 13.400 14710 current account (% pdb) -1,8 -1,6 -1,8 total population (in million) 261 264 267 poverty (% population) 10,9 10,1 9,8 foreign exchange reserves (billion usd) 116,4 130,2 120,7 unemployment (% of workforce) 5,6 5,33 source: bank indonesia and statistics indonesia product in the research are such as length of the road, domestic investment, foreign investment, total population, exchange rate, regional expenditure, and human development index (hdi). these variables are mentioned as determinant by previous research to examine the determinants of regional gross domestic product in indonesia. the figure 1 is the production possibility frontier curve to capture a process of increasing the production of goods and services. economic development is a process of increasing the production of goods and services, as indicated by pdrb growth. it is a process that involves economic and non-economic aspects. economic development is also indicated by the increase of bureaucratic awareness, law awareness, and social ethics. (todaro, 2000). countries or regions, which experience development, are marked with a bureaucratic system and process that prioritize professionalism, transparency, accountability, responsibility, and quality of services. regions that rely on primary sectors still depend on limited and non-renewable resources. the change of economic structure to the secondary and tertiary sectors indicates the increase of economic quality and quantity in fulfilling human needs (wilson, 2017). theoretically, economic development requires economic growth marked by the increase in per capita income from year to year. per capita income is determined by the amount of national income divided by the total population. the higher the national income, the higher the per capita income will be, assuming that the total population remains the same. the illustration of the economic growth process is marked by the shift of production possibility frontier to the right. economic growth can occur because of the increase of factor endowment or technological progress so that the economic capacity and capability increase in terms of goods and services production (diallo, 2018). the illustration of economic development is as follows figure 1. the shift of product possibilities frontier (ppf) curve indicates the economic development process caused by the increase of the production factor, including the amount of workforce, land, and capital. economic development can also be caused by technological progress, which increases the capacity and quality of the production process (epaphra, 2018). yuliadi determinants of regional economic growth in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 127 figure 1 production possibility frontier curve source: todaro, development economic, 2000 the process of economic development is not merely an increase in goods and services production nor the increase of per capita income in an economy. it is also marked by the change of quality and intensity of institutional development and human resources. regional economic development is also marked by the increase of public service quality by the apparatus in boosting the regional economy to a wealthier life (pimentel, harper, & martin, 2016). the investment of production capacity will also increase, and there will be an increase in the stock of raw materials for the continuation of the production process. through investment, innovation, and technology, it can also be developed so that the quality of production can boost economic development. investment is also essential for economic development through human capital investment, which is made through education and training. the illustration of macroeconomic component changes and its effects on the economy is as follows figure 2. figure 2 keynesian model and macroeconomics equilibrium source: dornbusch, fischer, and startz, 1998 the efforts to encourage domestic and foreign investors to invest are not easy things to do since they are related to people’s choice and trust. however, the main aspect to increase investment is to build trust and optimism among the investors about the future of investments in regions. the concept of national income is formulated as follows: y = c + i + g + (x-m) (1.1) yuliadi determinants of regional economic growth in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 128 disposable income (yd) is formulated into yd = y – tx + tr (1.2) yd = c + s (1.3) meanwhile, the allocation of disposable income (yd) are for consumption (c) and the rest is for saving (s). by merging the equations 1.2 and 1.3, another formulation is resulted as follows: c + s = yd = y – tx + tr (2.1) c = yd – s = y – tx + tr – s (2.2) the combination of the equations generates the formulations as follows: y = y – tx + tr – s + i + g + x – m (3.1) s – i = (g – tx + tr) + x – m (3.2) the equations indicate that the amount of saving and private sector investment surplus on the left is as big as the government budget deficit and the surplus of the balance of trade on the right. the effect of regional expenditure on economic development can be explained that increasing regional expenditure will generate development projects. it will create job opportunities and boost economic development in the regions (ribasauskiene, 2007). the multiplier effects of regional expenditure toward regional economic development can be determined by the amount of regional economy component budget for regional development projects. the more local components such as materials, supporting materials, and workforce being used, the larger the effects on the regional economic development (ozekhome, 2017). the concept of regional economic development is related to the availability of economic resources and other supporting factors, such as the economic policy of the regional government, bureaucratic system, infrastructure, etc. (bhandari, 2013) the discussion of regional development theory is related to the dynamic of the economics theory development. (hossain, 2001) the economics theory that discusses specifically the development of the regional economy is a regional science. the paradigm if the classical or neo-classical economy begins from the assumption of scarcity concept as a certainty faced by every individual on one side, and on the other side, each individual or group always tries to create a welfare economy (lubik, 2016). the formulation of national product in the neoclassical is illustrated in an equation as follows: y = f (k, l) (4.1) descriptions: y = output k = capital stock l =workforce yuliadi determinants of regional economic growth in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 129 from the formulation 4.1, cobb-douglas’s equation of production function can be formulated as follows: y = l1-α kα (4.2) 0 ,,,α 1 the derivation of cobb-douglass’s function equations becomes y = f (k) = kα (4.3) the net income of the increase of capital production factor (k) can be formulated as follows: 𝑑𝑘 𝑑𝑡 = 𝑠𝑓(𝑘) − (𝑛 − 𝛿)𝑘 = 𝑠𝑘𝛼 − (𝑛 + 𝛿)𝑘 (4.4) therefore, in the long-run, the capital stock per workforce amount is formulated as follows: sk^α-(n+δ) k^α= 0 (4.5) with the assumption that each individual has the freedom to choose, and the one who knows best is the individual, each individual with the principle of laize faire will conduct economic activities and make the best economy choices. (aghevli & khan, 1978) from an economic perspective, economic problems occur because each individual group faces a scarcity problem. the economic power of each individual and group to achieve the goals is explained in an interaction between demand and supply in the marketplace, which will determine the balance illustrated in the curve as follows figure 3. the interaction between demand and supply will determine the balance that generates balance total and balance price. classical and neoclassical theories have several weaknesses that ignore space as an essential variable to answer economic problems. figure 3 demand, supply, and market balance source: gregory mankiw, 1998 yuliadi determinants of regional economic growth in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 130 research method this research used panel data analysis regression through secondary data. data were obtained from bank indonesia (bi) and statistics indonesia (bps). some data also were collected from the research of interregional economy development study in indonesia. data consisted of regional gross domestic product (rgdp), human development index, domestic investment, foreign investment, regional expenditure, total population, exchange rate, and length of road. the data were accessed from the statistics indonesia website for seven years from 2010-2016, included 33 provinces in indonesia, and the total number of data was 231 observations. the method of analysis in this research was done using panel data analysis as a combination of time series and cross-section data. stata statistical program package was employed to obtain the estimation of research variables in interest. panel data analysis can be formulated in an economic model as follows: y = α + β1 x1 it + β2 x2 it + ... +βn xn it + є (5.1) each symbol is explained in detail as follows: y = dependent variable α = constants β1, β2, .... βn = regression coefficient x1, x2, .... xn = independent variable є = error term t = time i = region the panel data estimation can be executed using three approaches, namely, fixed effect, random effect, and common effect. the fixed effect assumes that differences between units of observation can be accommodated from their intercepts. the fixed effect estimation model is formulated as follows (gujarati, 2002): yit = α +iαit + xtitt β+ єit (5.2) the fixed effect approach can be solved with the least square dummy variable (lsdv). meanwhile, the random effect model is a panel data analysis model, where errors are interrelated between time and individuals. unlike the fixed effect in which the intercept differences are accommodated by dummy variables, in the random effect model, intercept differences are accommodated by error terms. the positive value of the random effect model approach is to eliminate the problem of heteroscedasticity. the formulation of the random effect model is as follows: y = α + β1 xit + ωit (5.3) yuliadi determinants of regional economic growth in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 131 each symbol is explained in detail as follow: y = dependent variable α = constants β = regression coefficient x = independent variable i = individual/region/company t = time є = error term the common effect model is the simplest and least used panel data analysis model in research because it only combines time series and cross-section data without considering differences in time and units of observation. the estimation method in the common effect model can be done using the ordinary least square (ols) method or least-squares technique. the formulation of the common effect model can be written as follows: y = α + β1 xit + є (5.3) each symbol is explained in detail as follow: y = dependent variable α = constants β = regression coefficient x = independent variable i = individual/region/company t = time є = error term the classical assumption test of the panel data regression analysis model only included a multicollinearity test and a heteroscedasticity test. to obtain the appropriate data, the data on regional gross domestic product, total population, regional expenditures, domestic investment, and foreign investment were transformed into logarithm forms. therefore, the numbers indicated the percentage of change of the variable. data transformation from nominal data to logarithmic data would provide additional information on the percentage change in the independent variable toward the changes in the dependent variable. result and discussion complete estimation results of panel data regression model with fixed effect approach, random effect, and common effect are shown in the following table 2. the table 2 presents the estimation results as indicated by regression coefficient values and probability values of common effect, fixed effect, and random effect model. after conducted the chow test and hausman test, then the estimations have selected the appropriate model, that was, the fixed-effect model. yuliadi determinants of regional economic growth in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 132 table 2 the estimation of panel data regression model variable common effect fixed effect random effect constants 19,3920 19,3938 16,6417 human development index 0,0004327 (0,436) -0,0000102 (0,904) -0,0000188 (0,844) log of domestic investment 0,0671654 (0,000)*** 0,00221 (0,387) 0,002837 (0,330) log of foreign investment 0,0611921 (0,000)*** 0,000825 (0,845) 0,0022427 (0,639) regional expenditure 0,5697 (0,000)*** 0,078749 (0,000**** 0,0947 (0,000)*** total population 0,5358 (0,000)*** 0,791853 (0,000)*** 0,9642 (0,000)*** exchange rate -0,000067 (0,000)*** 0,0000324 (0,000)*** 0,0000269 (0,000***) length of road -0,0000057 (0,032** -0,0000041 (0,095)* -0,0000039 (0,129) adjusted r-squared 0,9263 0,8133 0,8132 sign *, **, ***: indicate significant at 10 %, 5 %, and 1 % looking at the estimation results on the fixed effect, it can be seen that there were independent variables that had a positive and significant effect on regional gdp, such as regional expenditure, total population, and exchange rate. while, the rest of the independent variables, such as the human development index (hdi), domestic investment, foreign investment, and length of the road had no significant effect on regional gdp. in addition, with the panel data regression approach of the fixed-effect model, it can be seen that the regression coefficient of the exchange rate was 0.0000324, which means that the increase in the exchange rate by 1 point would increase the regional gdp by 0.0000324%. this phenomenon explains the increase in the exchange rate or the depreciation of the rupiah causes the value of indonesian export commodities to become cheaper. therefore, the demand for indonesian goods in the world market will increase, respectively. besides, indonesia's exports will also increase, which ultimately increases the growth of regional gdp. conversely, the decline in the exchange rate, or other words, the appreciation of the rupiah against the us dollar, will cause indonesian export commodities to become more expensive. therefore, it reduces export revenues and the growth of regional gdp. the regression coefficient value of the population variable was 0.791853, meaning that a population increased by 1% would increase the regional gdp by 0.7918%. this condition can be explained that the increase in population will affect the increasing demand for daily necessities so that consumption expenditures will increase. it finally leads to an increase in regional gdp. likewise, the increase in the total population will increase labor productivity through competition at the workplace; as a consequence, it will increase the productivity of economic sectors, thus increasing the growth of regional gdp. barro and lee (1994) also conducted research on the relationship between population and economic growth, but by using the phenomenon of migration concerning economic growth. other studies on the relationship between population and economic growth have also been carried out by mankiw, romer, and weil (1992), levint and renelt (1992). yuliadi determinants of regional economic growth in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 133 the regression coefficient value of the regional expenditure variable was 0.078749, which means that an increase in regional expenditure of 1% would increase regional gdp by 0.078749%. this situation implies that regional expenditure is an important component in regional economic development. through regional expenditure, it will create development projects to create jobs. consequently, people's income will increase. then, people's income will support public expenditure to increase as an attempt to improve the regional economy. increasing regional expenditure will also support the use of regional economic products in the form of food, capital goods, handicraft products, small industrial products, and households to increase regional gross domestic product. in contrast, a decrease in regional expenditure will cause a decline in the development of projects in the region, leading to a decrease in job creation. as a result, the income and expenditure of the community will also decrease, then eventually reduce regional economic growth. aschaurer (1989) has conducted research on the relationship between government spending and economic growth, which showed no significant relationship between government spending and economic growth. this research is also supported by barro's (1991) research that explains the existence of the crowding-out phenomenon of tax policy to finance government spending. the interesting thing from the research on interregional economic development in indonesia is that there were no significant effects from the variables of domestic investment, foreign investment, and infrastructure (which was indicated by the length of road) towards regional economic growth. there are several reviews to see this phenomenon, among others, the value and amount of investment in the regions that are still relatively small. as a result, investment is not able to support regional economic growth. it is different from the investments in java provinces, which are quite large; therefore, they affect to improve the regional economic growth, particularly in java provinces. the lack of investment in other provinces, excluding java provinces, has also become worse by the lack of infrastructure that supports economic activities, such as electricity, roads, bridges, ports, and airports. although the government recently has been more proactive in building infrastructures, the development progress and infrastructure projects are concentrated in the java region (aghevli, 1976). research on the relationship between investment and economic growth has also been carried out by mankiw, et al. (1992). ferreira (2000) conducted a study of the relationship between investment and economic growth in brazil, and the results showed no significant relationship between investment and economic growth. likewise, the road infrastructure also had no significant effect on regional economic growth because the quality and length of roads in the regions were not enough to support regional economic growth. moreover, roads become a vital facility for the distribution and transportation of goods between regions. it also supports regional economic activities and regional economic sectors in the regions. limited length of road in the regions is caused by the lack of government budget to build road facilities and also the heavy natural terrain that becomes an obstacle for the construction of road facilities in the regions. however, one of the problems that often become an obstacle to road construction is the issue of land acquisition. since this issue often creates disputes and conflicts with the local community. vidyatama (2010) has also conducted research on the relationship between yuliadi determinants of regional economic growth in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 134 infrastructure and economic growth where transportation infrastructure had a positive and significant relationship to economic growth. from these research findings, it was also found that the variable of the human development index (hdi) had no significant effect on regional economic growth (rgdp). it is understood that the quality of indonesian human resources as a whole has not shown adequate quality in the aspects of: education, health, skills, and experience. the total population of indonesia is indeed large, but most of them live in java island. meanwhile, not many people are living outside java island. the problem of uneven population distribution between regions is a matter of self-development in the regions. likewise, the availability of educated labors and skilled labors are also mostly found in java island but not outside java island. medical staff, doctors, agricultural scholars, civil engineers, professionals, entrepreneurs mostly come from java region. this situation causes the human development index to have no significant effect on regional economic growth in indonesia since there is a disparity in terms of human capital between regions in indonesia. research on hdi with economic growth has also been carried out by ferreira (2000) in brazil, also conducted by higgins, levy, and young (2003) in the usa. garcia and soelistianingsih (1998) have conducted research on hdi with economic growth and showed a positive and significant relationship. conclusion in a nutshell, our findings can be summarized as follows: regional economic growth in indonesia is still driven by regional government spending through regional expenditure. regional economic development in indonesia is also driven by external factors through the variable exchange rate of the rupiah against the us dollar. regional economic growth in indonesia is driven by a large population. regional economic growth in indonesia was not influenced by domestic investment, foreign investment, and length of the road due to the uneven development of economic infrastructure between regions in indonesia. most of which are located in java regions, which provides a more promising climate investment than other regions. moreover, regional investments, both domestic and foreign investment, also infrastructure were not enough to support the growth of regional economic activities. besides, regional economic development in indonesia was not influenced by the variable of the human development index (hdi). it implies the existence of a problem of the disparity of indonesian human resources and human capital between regions. since there is an uneven distribution of educated and trained human resources to support regional economic growth in indonesia. based on those finding, policy recommendations on the study of interregional economic development in indonesia were formulated as follows: (1) there is a need to increase and equalize the number and availability of quality human resources in all regions in indonesia by increasing the human resources training programs and improving the educational system in indonesia. there are some examples of the government’s program to increase the educational system in indonesia, such as providing scholarships and cash transfers to low-income families to increase the school enrolment in indonesia. this program should yuliadi determinants of regional economic growth in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 135 be directed on target, mainly in some areas that are left behind or far from the center of development. besides, the government should provide incentives for outstanding development actors, such as medical personnel, doctors, building engineers, agriculture instructors, teachers, and lecturers. this incentive aims to encourage them to support regional development. (2) moreover, increased supervision of the quality of arterial road construction throughout the land by reducing corruption of development funds and integrated policies in handling land acquisition issues with the principle of win-win solutions and compensation for residents affected by road construction should also be taken into account. (3) there is a need for integrated policies in improving the investment climate through professional bureaucratic policies that are fast, efficient, and proactive towards the business world to increase political and security stability in the regions. the development of the investment climate is also related to the banking world, which can offer competitive and varied loans to meet the needs of business actors. references aghevli, b. b. (1976). a model of the monetary sector for indonesia 1968-1973. bulletin of indonesian economic studies, 12(3), 50-60. https://doi.org/10.1080/00074917612331332979 aghevli, b. b., & khan m. s. 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disetujui: maret 2013 abstract: this study aims at identifying the factors that affect willingness to pay (wtp) participants of bpjs kesehatan class iii in yogyakarta will be analyzed by using the approach of contingent valuation method (cvm). variables use to measure wtp in this research include age, number of family members, the last education taken, level of earnings, and assumptions of society about sharia system using primary data by questionnaire and interview methods to 144 respondents. results analysis of this study show a negative effect against the age variable wtp, variable number of family members have not effect toward the wtp, the last education variable positive effect toward wtp, variable income levels a positive effect toward wtp, and sharia variable negative effect toward wtp. keywords: willingness to pay (wtp); sharia system; contingent valuation method; insurance jel classification: i13 abstrak: studi ini bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi willingness to pay (wtp) peserta bpjs kesehatan kelas iii di yogyakarta akan dianalisis menggunakan pendekatan contingent valuation method (cvm). variabel yang digunakan untuk mengukur wtp dalam penelitian ini mencakup usia, jumlah anggota keluarga, pendidikan terakhir yang ditempuh, tingkat penghasilan, dan asumsi masyarakat mengenai sistem syariah dengan menggunakan data primer dengan metode kuisioner dan wawancara kepada 144 orang responden.hasil analisis penelitian menunjukan variabel usia berpengaruh negatif terhadap wtp, variabel jumlah anggota keluarga tidak berpengaruh terhadap wtp, variabel pendidikan terakhir berpengaruh positif terhadap wtp, variabel tingkat pendapatan berpengaruh positif terhadap wtp, dan variabel syariah berpengaruh negatif terhadap wtp. kata kunci: willingness to pay; sistem syariah; contingent valuation method; asuransi klasifikasi jel: i13 pendahuluan peningkatan kesehatan selalu disebutkan sebagai salah satu cara mengetas kemiskinan. selain itu, kesehatan adalah prasyarat bagi peningkatan produktifitas, dan pendidikan yang berhasil juga bergantung pada kesehatan yang memadai (michael p. todaro dan stephen c. smith). pada setiap tahunnya, kebutuhan akan kesehatan mengalami peningkatan sesuai dengan peningkatan kualitas dan fasilitas di bidang tersebut namun tidak diimbangi dengan pendapatan yang lebih baik, seperti yang tertera pada tabel 1. biaya yang dikeluarkan untuk investasi kesehatan yang mengalami kenaikan tentunya menjadi beban tersendiri bagi warga miskin dengan pendapatan yang rendah. dengan demikian masyarakat akan terus berada pada lingkaran kemiskinan meskipun dengan bebedeterminan willingness to pay iuran ... (maya andita, masyhudi) 45 rapa upayanya mereka telah meningkatkan pendapatan. oleh karena itu pemerintah dirasa perlu melakukan beberapa kebijakan dalam mengentaskan kemiskinan melalui peningkatan kualitas kesehatan. salah satu cara yang dilakukan pemerintah salah satunya adalah menciptakan program jaminan kesehatan bagi masyarakat pada umumnya, dan pada masyarakat miskin pada khususnya. pada pasal 60 ayat (1) uu bpjs yang menentukan bpjs kesehatan akan mulai beroperasi pada tanggal 1 januari 2014, dan kemudian pasal 62 ayat (1) uu bpjs menentukan pt. jamsostek berubah menjadi bpjs ketenagakerjaan dan mulai beroperasi paling lambat tanggal 1 juli 2015. kelompok jaminan kesehatan ini kemudian dibagi menjadi dua, yaitu kelompok penerima bantuan iuran (pbi) dan bukan pbi dengan sistem semacam asuransi yang dianutnya. peserta jkn dihimbau untuk membayar iuran sesuai dengan kelompoknya dengan pilihan kelas pelayanan kesehatan dari mulai kelas 1, 2, dan 3 namun khusus untuk kelompok peserta jkn penerima bantuan iuran akan ditetapkan dengan pelayanan kelas 3. dalam uu no 40 tahun 2004 pasal 4 tentang sjsn, berisi tentang sifat dari kepersertaan jaminan sosial ini bersifat wajib. hal ini ditentukan oleh perpres 111 tahun 2013 pasal 6 ayat 1 juga yang menetapkan bahwa kepersertaan jaminan kesehatan bersifat wajib mencakup seluruh penduduk indonesia. hal ini menimbulkan pro dan kontra tersendiri bagi warga indonesia yang sejatinya tidak ingin mengikuti program semacam ini dengan berbagai pertimbangan masing-masing. namun dengan dikeluarkannya beberapa peraturan pemerintah semacam ini, sebagian kelompok masyarakat terpaksa mengikuti program bpjs kesehatan demi meningkatkan kualitas kesehatan di indonesia. ditambah lagi dengan masih lemahnya layanan, pemberian obat yang belum maksimal, minimnya sarana kesehatan, rendahnya kapitasi, kurangnya tenaga medis, dan menurunnya keuntungan yang diterima oleh rumah sakit menjadikan dilema tersendiri bagi masyarakat sebagai peserta bpjs kesehatan. dengan diadakannya program bpjs kesehatan ini, para pesertanya berhak mendapatkan manfaat jaminan kesehatan yang bersifat pelayanan kesehatan perorangan sesuai dengan kebutuhan medis yang diperlukan. manfaat ini terdiri atas manfaat medis dan nonmedis (kementrian kesehatan republik indonesia). pelayanan kesehatan menggunakan sistem operasi semacam asuransi ini terbilang ringan bagi kantong masyarakat dengan kebutuhan akan pemeliharaan kesehatan yang tinggi dan pendapatan menengah hingga yang rendah. namun, rendahnya tarif paket bpjs kesehatan ke rumah sakit berdampak serius bagi sejumlah rumah sakit. menurut perhimpunan rumah sakit seluruh indonesia (persi), tidak sedikit rumah sakit yang memilih-milih pasien agar dapat mendapatkan profit (liputan6.com, jakarta). pelayanan kesehatan yang semula menjadi tujuan dari diciptakannya program bpjs kesehatan ini pada akhirnya tidak terlaksana dengan maksimal, sehingga perlu dilakukan penyesuaian kembali pada iuran setiap pesertanya demi memberikan keseimbangan antara pelayanan dan profit yang akan diterima baik oleh rumah sakit maupun bpjs tersendiri. ketentuan iuran bpjs kesehatan ini dapat dilihat melalui tabel 2. jaminan kesehatan bagi peserta bantuan iuran (pbi) yang berasal dari kalangan tidak mampu ditanggung oleh pemerintah dengan subsidi sebesar rp19.225,per orang. dengan diterapkannya besaran iuran baru, maka subsidi tersebut akan ditambah besarannya (nila f moeloek, bpjs.info). tabel 1. pengeluaran per kapita sebulan untuk biaya kesehatan (rupiah) tahun 2009-2013 no tahun pdb harga konstan (%) kota (rupiah) desa (rupiah) kota+desa (rupiah) 1 2009 15.310 7.636 11.342 2 2010 6,31 17.515 9.164 13.198 3 2011 6,32 23.950 12.249 18.075 4 2012 6,10 25.961 13.265 19.588 5 2013 5,59 32.933 15.468 24.169 sumber : badan pusat statistik (bps) jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 1, april 2013: 44-57 46 peserta bpjs kesehatan merupakan pemilik kepentingan utama atas fasilitas dan segala proses yang berlaku pada bpjs kesehatan. maka tiap-tiap peserta juga perlu memahami bagaimana proses pendanaan dalam program bpjs kesehatan agar tidak ada keragu-raguan dalam keikutsertaan program tersebut. dewasa ini, banyak perbincangan mengenai ketidaksyariahan proses pendanaan bpjs kesehatan di mana bpjs kesehatan saat ini diduga kuat mengandung gharar pada kedudukan akad, status iuran yang disetorkan, serta dalam investasi iuran yang dikelola oleh bpjs. sehingga sistem pendanaan bpjs kesehatan ini perlu dikaji ulang secara syariah atau setidaknya diberikan kejelasan atas status dana tersebut. penelitian ini mengukur nilai tempat orang dengan menggunakan contingent valuation method (cvm). pada umumnya, cvm merupakan teknik untuk mengukur nilai barang publik dengan secara langsung menanyai oran-orang tentang nilai tempat yang mereka tinggali. jika digunakan secara tepat, metode ini merupakan teknik paling tepat untuk mengestimasi nilai ekonomis suatu barang publik (michell dan carson; tapvong dan kruavan dalam saptutyningsih, 2007). rosita manurung (2008), penelitiannya menggunakan cvm (contingent valuation method) yang merupakan metode teknik survey untuk mencari tahu nilai atau harga ekonomi maksimum yang dikeluarkan untuk mendapatkan barang dan jasa. cvm bertujuan untuk mengetahui willingness to pay (wtp) yaitu keinginan untuk membayar dengan tujuan memperoleh peningkatan kualitas lingkungan, dan willingness to accept (wta) yaitu kesediaan untuk menerima kompensasi atas dampak negatif yang dihasilkan oleh lingkungan. dalam penelitian ini menjelaskan bahwa variabel yang mempengaruhi wtp adalah variabel jenis kelamin, keterlibatan organisasi, prestasi akademis, jumlah anggota keluarga, dan pendapatan keluarga. sementara dalam penelitiannya bhisma murti (2005), menggunakan willingness to pay dan willingness to buy sebagai variabel dependent, serta rata-rata pendapatan setiap bulan, tingkat tabel 2. ketentuan iuran bpjs kesehatan peserta iuran keterangan bukan penerima bantuan iuran (pbi) pekerja penerima upah pegawai pemerintah (pns, tni, polri pejabat negara, pegawai pemerintah non pns) pemberi kerja 3% % gaji atau upah per bulan pekerja 2% % gaji atau upah per bulan pegawai swasta (lainnya) pemberi kerja 4,00% % gaji atau upah per bulan pekerja 0,50% % gaji atau upah per bulan pek erja bukan penerima upah rp59.500 kelas i, iuran per jiwa per bulan rp42.500 kelas ii, iuran per jiwa per bulan rp25.500 kelas iii, iuran per jiwa per bulan bukan pekerja rp59.500 kelas i, iuran per jiwa per bulan rp42.500 kelas ii, iuran per jiwa per bulan rp25.500 kelas iii, iuran per jiwa per bulan penerima bantuan iuran (pbi) rp19.225 (dibayarkan oleh pemerintah) kelas iii, iuran per jiwa per bulan *batas paling tinggi gaji atau upah per bulan yang digunakan sebagai dasar perhitungan besaran iuran sebesar dua kali penghasilan tidak kena pajak (ptkp) dengan status kawin dengan satu orang anak. sumber: perpres 111/2013 determinan willingness to pay iuran ... (maya andita, masyhudi) 47 pendidikan, usia, jenis kelamin, dan tawaran harga sebagai variabel independent. penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memberikan informasi kepada pembuat kebijakan mengenai permintaan harga untuk asuransi kesehatan. penelitian ini juga berguna untuk mengestimasi tingkat subsidi yang diperlukan untuk memenuhi kebutuhan antara anggota yang dapat membayar premi secara maksimal agar dapat membantu anggota asuransi kesehatan dengan premi yang lebih rendah dan murah. penelitian asri maharani dan viera wardhani (2011), menunjukkan hasil tingkat kemauan responden dalam semua jenis pemeriksaan laboratorium yang rendah. di antara 76 persen responden yang tidak memiliki asuransi kesehatan, sekitar 50 persen responden bersedia membayar pemeriksaan laboratorium. jumlah 15 dari 24 (lebih dari 50 persen) responden yang memiliki asuransi kesehatan bersedia membayar pelayanan laboratorium. kemauan respoden untuk membayar produk pemeriksaan laboratorium tidak secara signifikan dipengaruhi oleh status kepemilikan asuransi kesehatan. alasannya adalah karena masyarakat banyuwangi belum mengenal dengan baik dan masih sedikit yang memiliki asuransi kesehatan, sehingga sebagian besar pembayaran dari out of pocket. penelitian kemauan membayar menggunakan pendekatan contingent valuation method yang merupakan metode untuk mengukur kemauan membayar sebenarnya dan bertujuan untuk mengukur keuntungan dari pelayanan publik yang tidak diperjualbelikan melalui pasar di ekonomi bebas. variabel yang digunakan pada penelitian ini adalah jenis kelamin, usia, pendidikan, jumlah anggota keluarga, pendapatan, dan sosio-ekonomi. adapun putu linda astrini wati dan dr. ketut suarjana, mph (2013), penelitiannya menggambarkan kemampuan membayar (ability to pay) dan kemauan membayar (willingness to pay) pasien rawat inap di rumah sakit umum daerah kapal bandung. data mengenai wtp menggunakan pendekatan contingent valuation method (cvm) dengan metode permainan penawaran (bidding game method) yaitu dengan memberikan pilihan daftar harga yang sanggup dibayar oleh responden. wta pasien dihitung per kelas rawat inap, sedangkan wtp dianalisis dengan menghitung rata-rata tarif yang diinginkan pasien per kelas rawat inap. dalam penelitian petty primatury a. p. dan nia budi p, choosing health plans all together (chat) yang digunakan untuk membantu responden memutuskan jenis manfaat seperti rawat inap, konsultasi, tes medis, dan obatobatan yang ingin dimasukan sebagai paket manfaat asuransi kesehatan serta tingkat pelayanan apa yang mereka prioritaskan untuk memperoleh manfaat tersebut. willingness to pay (wtp) dihitung berdasarkan kemampuan setiap individu atau masyarakat secara agregat untuk membayar atau mengeluarkan uang dalam rangka memperbaiki kondisi lingkungan agar sesuai dengan kondisi yang diinginkan. wtp merupakan nilai kegunaan potensial dari sumberdaya alam dan jasa lingkungan. contingent valuation method (cvm) adalah cara perhitungan secara langsung untuk menanyakan kesediaan membayar (wtp). untuk mendapatkan nilai-nilai yang dibutuhkan dalam wtp, dapat dilakukan dengan cara bidding game, close-ended referendum, open ended question, dan payment card. pada tahun 2008 curt lofgren dkk melakukan penelitian mengenai willingness to pay (wtp) untuk asuransi kesehatan di daerah pedesaan vietnam. variabel yang digunakan dalam penelitiannya meliputi usia, jenis pekerjaan, tingkat pendidikan, dan jumlah anggota dalam satu keluarga. dalam penelitiannya, curt lofgren dkk menggunakan open-ended pertanyaan wtp di mana responden melalui wawancara langsung diberikan pertanyaan terbuka mengenai wtp maksimal yang akan diberikan untuk membayar asuransi kesehatan. zulkahfi (2013) melakukan penelitian yang berisi mengenai asuransi syariah yang berhubungan dengan pengelolaan dana jaminan sosial bpjs. dalam penelitiannya menyebutkan bahwa sistem bpjs saat ini masih menggunakan sistem asuransi konvensional bukan asuransi syariah dalam pengelolaan dananya sehingga prakteknya masih mengandung unsur maisir dan gharar. adapun tujuan dalam penelitian ini sebagai berikut, mengukur besarnya willingness to pay peserta pengguna bpjs kesehatan d.i. yogyakarta untuk perbaikan kualitas pelayanan serta mengetahui pengaruh tingkat penghasilan, usia, jumlah anggota keluarga, pendidikan jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 1, april 2013: 44-57 48 terakhir, penerapan sistem syariah terhadap willingness to pay peserta pengguna bpjs kesehatan d.i. yogyakarta untuk perbaikan kualitas pelayanan. metode penelitian data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data primer. data primer adalah data yang diperoleh dengan interaksi langsung bersama responden. interaksi langsung dengan responden menggunakan sistem wawancara secara langsung yang dibantu dengan kuisioner pada peserta bpjs kelas iii yang berada di rumah sakit umum d.i yogyakarta. penelitian ini dilakukan di d.i yogyakarta, tepatnya di rumah sakit panembahan senopati bantul, puskesmas lendah 1, puskesmas lendah 2, puskesmas mlati 1 dan gamping 1, puskesmas wonosari 1, dan puskesmas pakualaman, objek pada penelitian ini adalah peserta bpjs kelas iii yang berada di d.i yogyakarta. penentuan sampel yang digunakan untuk objek penelitian ini menggunakan teknik purposive sampling. sampel dalam penelitian ini ditentukan berdasarkan pasien yang menggunakan pelayanan kesehatan bpjs di kelas iii yang sedang berobat ke puskesmas dan rumah sakit yang telah ditentukan untuk menjadi sampel. jumlah sampel dalam penelitian ini ditentukan dengan formula sebagai berikut: n = 1) keterangan: n adalah jumlah sampel; n adalah jumlah populasi (peserta bpjs kesehatan kelas iii); e adalah persentase kelonggaran karena kesalahan pengambilan sampel yang ditoleransikan (10 persen) jadi jumlah sampel dalam penelitian ini adalah: n = . , = 99,99 hasil perhitungan tersebut menjadi batas minimal jumlah sampel, pada penelitian ini, sampel ditambah 44 orang dari batas minimal yang dipilih berdasarkan populasi masyarakat di masing-masing kabupaten dan kota yang menggunakan bpjs kesehatan sehingga jumlah total sampel yang digunakan oleh penelitian ini adalah sejumlah 144 orang responden. penelitian ini menggunakan metode contingent valuation, yaitu metode yang dilakukan dengan survei secara langsung kepada peserta bpjs kesehatan mengenai willingness to pay untuk perbaikan kualitas pelayanan kesehatan. pengolahan data primer menggunakan program spss dengan analisis regresi berganda, sehingga dapat mengetahui faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi besarnya willingness to pay peserta bpjs kesehatan kelas iii untuk perbaikan kualitas pelayanan kesehatan. hasil dan pembahasan uji validitas dan reliabilitas uji validitas digunakan untuk menguji kecermatan pertanyaan yang dipakai dalam kuisioner penelitian yang akan diukur. pertanyaan dapat dikatakan valid jika rhitung lebih besar dari rtabel pada level 5 persen. dalam tabel 3 ditampilkan hasil validitas dari variabel yang diuji. tabel 3. hasil uji validitas variabel r hitung r – tabel keterangan income 0,982 0,164 valid usia 0,180 0,164 valid jak 0,168 0,164 valid edu 0,365 0,164 valid sumber : data primer diolah berdasarkan tabel 3 dapat diketahui bahwa semua variabel yang diuji memiliki nilai rhitung lebih besar dari rtabel di level 5 persen dan variabel syariah sebagai dummy, sehingga dapat disimpulkan bahwa seluruh variabel yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah valid. uji reliabilitas digunakan untuk mengetahui kestabilan alat ukur. suatu alat ukur dikatakan reliable apabila dapat memberikan hasil yang sama bila dipakai untuk mengukur ulang objek yang sama. uji reliabilitas dilakukan dengan cara menghitung cronbach alpha pada masing-masing instrument. reliabilitas yang dianggap sudah cukup memuaskan atau reliabilitas konsistensi apabila cronbach alpha ≥ 0,4. setelah data diolah, hasil cronbach alpha determinan willingness to pay iuran ... (maya andita, masyhudi) 49 pada penelitian ini adalah sebesar 0,4 sehingga dapat dikatakan bahwa instrumen yang digunakan adalah reliabel. pengujian asumsi klasik uji multikolinearitas. uji multikolinearitas adalah untuk menguji korelasi variabel bebas atau independen yang digunakan. pengujian multikolinearitas dilakukan dengan cara melihat nilai tolerance dan vif pada hasil regresi. jika nilai tolerance lebih besar dari 0,1 dan vif kurang dari 10, maka dapat dikatakan bahwa model yang digunakan tidak terdapat masalah multikolinearitas. berdasarkan pada tabel 4 dapat dilihat bahwa semua variabel memiliki nilai tolerance lebih dari 0,1 yang dapat diartikan bahwa tidak ada korelasi antar variabel bebas yang nilainya lebih dari 95 persen. nilai vif pada penelitian ini juga menunjukan bahwa semua variabel memiliki nilai vif kurang dari 10. sehingga dapat disimpulkan bahwa model yang digunakan tidak terdapat masalah multikolinearitas. uji heterokedastisitas. uji heterokedastisitas ini untuk mengetahui adanya ketidaksamaan varian dari residual untuk semua pengamatan atau dari satu pengamatan ke pengamatan lain. untuk mendeteksi adanya masalah heteroskedastisitas, output regresi antara residual dengan variabel-variabel independent lainnya. output dalam penelitian ini menunjukan tidak adanya hubungan yang signifikan pada level 1 persen antara seluruh variabel independent terhadap nilai absolut residual. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa tidak terdapat masalah heteroskedastisitas dan layak untuk digunakan. masalah heteroskedastisitas juga dapat dideteksi dengan adanya pola pada grafik scatterplot. pada gambar 1 dapat dilihat bahwa titiktitik menyebar secara acak dan tersebar, baik di bawah angka 0 pada sumbu y maupun di bawahnya. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa tidak terdapat masalah heteroskedastisitas dan layak untuk digunakan. tabel 5. nilai signifikansi antarvariabel model t sig. usia -0,96 0,051 jak -0,206 0,039 edu 0,83 0,350 income 0,132 0,137 syariah -0,044 0,586 sumber: data primer diolah gambar 1. grafik scatterplot hasil estimasi regresi analisis regresi merupakan model yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini, dan model penelitian dirumuskan sebagai berikut: wtp = β0 + β1income + β2usia + β3jak + β4edu + β5syariah + e 3) tabel 4. nilai tolerance dan vif variabel definisi collinearity statistics tolerance vif usia usia 0,620 1,614 jak jumlah anggota keluarga 0,632 1,582 edu pendidikan terakhir yang ditempuh 0,785 1,275 income tingkat penghasilan 0,774 1,280 syariah pentingnya penerapan sistem syariah 0,927 1,067 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 1, april 2013: 44-57 50 keterangan: wtp adalah willingness to pay (rp); β0 adalah intersep; β1,…,β5 adalah koefisien regresi; income adalah tingkat penghasilan (rp per bulan); usia adalah usia (tahun); jak adalah jumlah anggota keluarga (orang); edu adalah pendidikan terakhir yang ditempuh (tahun); syariah adalah seberapa penting sistem syariah diperlukan (dummy); e adalah error term berdasarkan hasil estimasi pada tabel 5 pada kolom fit model dapat dilihat bahwa tidak ada variabel yang dikeluarkan dari model. oleh karena itu, variabel-variabel yang dianggap mempengaruhi willingness to pay (wtp) yaitu tingkat penghasilan, usia, jumlah anggota keluarga (jak), pendidikan terakhir yang ditempuh (edu), dan seberapa penting sistem syariah diperlukan (syariah) mempengaruhi besarnya willingness to pay. deskripsi statistik variabel penelitian berdasarkan penelitian yang telah dilakukan tentang willingness to pay (wtp) peserta bpjs kesehatan kelas iii untuk peningkatan kualitas pelayanan bpjs kesehatan, dapat diketahui deskripsi statistik variabel-variabel penelitian seperti tampak pada tabel 6. berdasarkan tabel 6, di antara 144 orang responden willingness to pay tertinggi adalah sebesar rp28.500,00 dan terendah rp26.500,00. rata-rata willingness to pay sebesar rp26.875,00 dengan standar deviasi 553,12 dengan nilai standar deviasi yang lebih rendah daripada nilai rata-rata maka dinyatakan bahwa sebaran data jawaban responden terhadap variabel wtp terindikasi baik. rata-rata dari variabel tingkat penghasilan 144 orang responden berjumlah rp1.316.458,33 dengan penghasilan tertinggi rp3.500.000,00 dan penghasilan terendah rp500.000. standar deviasi sebesar 630555,83 lebih rendah dari rata-rata tingkat penghasilan yang menunjukan sebaran data terhadap variabel tingkat penghasilan adalah baik. tabel 6 menunjukkan variabel usia tertua adalah 63 tahun dan termuda 18 tahun dengan standar deviasi variabel 10,937 lebih kecil dari rata-rata sebesar 36,048 tahun. hal ini menuntabel 6. deskripsi statistik variabel variabel definisi mean max min std. deviasi wtp willingness to pay 26.875 28.500 26.500 553,122 usia usia 36,048 63 18 10,937 jak jumlah anggota keluarga 3,437 6 1 1,2558 edu pendidikan terakhir yang ditempuh 11,229 16 6 2,511 income tingkat penghasilan 1.316.458,33 3.500.000 500.000 630555,83 syariah pentingnya penerapan sistem syariah 0,7361 1 0 0,44228 tabel 5. hasil estimasi regresi variabel full model fit model koefisien t-stat koefisien t-stat konstanta 26.637,336 109,009*** 26.637,336 109,009*** usia -6,624 -1,612** -6,624 -1,612** jak -121,339 -3,426*** -121,339 -3,426*** edu 44,972 2,827*** 44,972 2,827*** income 0,00039 6,087*** 0,00039 6,087*** syariah -162,775 -1,970** -162,775 -1,970** r-squared 0,435 r-squared 0,435 f-statistic 21,288 f-statistic 21,288 prob f-stat 0,000 prob f-stat 0,000 variabel dependen: wtp keterangan : ***signifikan pada α=1 persen **signifikan pada α= 5 persen determinan willingness to pay iuran ... (maya andita, masyhudi) 51 jukkan sebaran data akan jawaban terhadap variabel usia baik. variabel jumlah anggota keluarga dari 144 responden menunjukan ratarata jumlah anggota keluarga sebanyak 4 orang. jumlah anggota keluarga terbanyak sebanyak 6 orang dan yang paling sedikit diwakili oleh responden yang belum menikah beranggota keluarga 1 orang. standar deviasi variabel ini sebesar 1,2558 lebih kecil dari rata-rata sebesar 3,437 sehingga menunjukan bahwa sebaran data jumlah anggota keluarga adalah baik. berdasarkan tabel 6, dari 144 orang responden yang menunjukkan pendidikan terakhir yang ditempuh, dihitung berdasarkan tahun tempuh pendidikan. rata-rata lama belajar selama 11,229 tahun dengan standar deviasi 2,51, dengan nilai standar deviasi yang lebih rendah daripada nilai rata-rata maka dinyatakan bahwa sebaran data jawaban responden terhadap variabel edukasi terindikasi baik. dengan jumlah 135 orang responden yang terlihat pada tabel, merasakan pentingnya penerapan sistem syariah menunjukkan skor terbesar 1 dan terendah 0 serta rata-rata 0,7361. standar deviasi variabel ini sebesar 0,44 hal ini menunjukkan standar deviasi lebih besar dari rata-rata sehingga dinyatakan bahwa sebaran data terhadap variabel syariah adalah baik. pada tabel 5, nilai konstanta menunjukkan angka 26.637,336 yang dapat diartikan bahwa jika semua variabel bebas yaitu usia, jumlah anggota keluarga (jak), pendidikan terakhir yang ditempuh (edu), tingkat penghasilan (income) dianggap konstan, maka willingness to pay (wtp) peserta bpjs kesehatan kelas iii dalam upaya peningkatan kualitas pelayanan kesehatan akan sebesar rp26.5486,155. hipotesis nol (h0) menyebutkan bahwa usia berpengaruh terhadap willingness to pay peserta bpjs kesehatan kelas iii untuk perbaikan kualitas pelayanan kesehatan. hipotesis alternatif (ha) menyebutkan bahwa usia tidak berpengaruh terhadap willingness to pay peserta bpjs kesehatan kelas iii untuk perbaikan kualitas pelayanan kesehatan. berdasarkan tabel 5 nilai tstat atau thitung variabel usia sebesar -1,612 lebih besar dari ttabel sebesar -2,6, maka dapat dikatakan bahwa hipotesis nol (h0) diterima. berarti variabel usia mempengaruhi besarnya wtp. tabel 5 menunjukkan koefisien variabel usia sebesar -6,624 yang dapat diartikan bahwa usia dan wtp memiliki korelasi negatif. apabila usia semakin tua satu tahun, maka wtp akan turun sebesar rp6,624 dengan asumsi faktor lain danggap konstan. hipotesis nol (h0) menyebutkan bahwa jumlah anggota keluarga berpengaruh terhadap willingness to pay peserta bpjs kesehatan kelas iii untuk perbaikan kualitas pelayanan kesehatan. hipotesis alternative (ha) menyebutkan bahwa jumlah anggota keluarga tidak berpengaruh terhadap willingness to pay peserta bpjs kesehatan kelas iii untuk perbaikan kualitas pelayanan kesehatan. berdasarkan tabel 5 nilai t-stat atau thitung variabel jumlah anggota keluarga (jak) sebesar 3,426 lebih kecil dari ttabel sebesar -2,6 maka dapat dikatakan bahwa hipotesis nol (h0) ditolak, dan hipotesis alternatif (ha) diterima. berarti variabel jumlah anggota keluarga tidak mempengaruhi besarnya wtp. nilai koefisien yang bertanda negatif menunjukkan bahwa usia dan wtp memiliki korelasi negatif. namun nilai tstatistik pada variabel jumlah anggota keluarga menunjukan bahwa jumlah anggota keluarga tidak berpengaruh terhadap wtp. jika satu dalam keluarga bertambah satu orang, maka tidak akan mempengaruhi kenaikan atau penurunan wtp. hipotesis nol (h0) menyebutkan bahwa pendidikan terakhir yang ditempuh (edu) berpengaruh terhadap willingness to pay peserta bpjs kesehatan kelas iii untuk perbaikan kualitas pelayanan kesehatan. hipotesis alternative (ha) menyebutkan bahwa pendidikan terakhir yang ditempuh (edu) tidak berpengaruh terhadap willingness to pay peserta bpjs kesehatan kelas iii untuk perbaikan kualitas pelayanan kesehatan. berdasarkan tabel 5 nilai t-stat atau thitung variabel pendidikan terakhir yang ditempuh (edu) sebesar 2,827 lebih besar dari ttabel 2,6 dan tingkat probabilitasnya 0,000 yang lebih kecil dari 0,01, maka dapat dikatakan bahwa hipotesis nol (h0) diterima. berarti variabel pendidikan terakhir yang ditempuh (edu) mempengaruhi besarnya wtp. tabel 5 menunjukkan koefisien variabel pendidikan terakhir yang ditempuh (edu) sebesar 44,972 yang dapat diartikan bahwa usia dan wtp memiliki korelasi positif. apabila pendidikan terakhir yang ditempuh (edu) semakin tinggi, maka wtp akan naik sebesar rp44,972 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 1, april 2013: 44-57 52 dengan asumsi faktor lain dianggap konstan. hipotesis nol (h0) menyebutkan bahwa tingkat penghasilan (income) berpengaruh terhadap willingness to pay peserta bpjs kesehatan kelas iii untuk perbaikan kualitas pelayanan kesehatan. hipotesis alternatif (ha) menyebutkan bahwa tingkat penghasilan (income) tidak berpengaruh terhadap willingness to pay peserta bpjs kesehatan kelas iii untuk perbaikan kualitas pelayanan kesehatan. berdasarkan tabel 5 nilai t-stat atau thitung variabel tingkat penghasilan (income) sebesar 6,087 dan tingkat probabilitasnya 0,000 yang lebih kecil dari 0,01, maka dapat dikatakan bahwa hipotesis nol (h0) diterima. berarti tingkat penghasilan (income) mempengaruhi besarnya wtp. tabel 5 menunjukkan koefisien variabel tingkat penghasilan (income) sebesar 0,00039 yang dapat diartikan bahwa ketika tingkat penghasilan naik satu rupiah maka wtp akan meningkat sebesar rp0,00039 dengan asumsi faktor lain dianggap konstan. hipotesis nol (h0) menyebutkan bahwa pentingnya sistem syariah jika (syariah) berpengaruh terhadap willingness to pay peserta bpjs kesehatan kelas iii untuk perbaikan kualitas pelayanan kesehatan. hipotesis alternative (ha) menyebutkan bahwa pentingnya sistem syariah jika (syariah) tidak berpengaruh terhadap willingness to pay peserta bpjs kesehatan kelas iii untuk perbaikan kualitas pelayanan kesehatan. berdasarkan tabel 5 nilai t-stat atau thitung variabel pentingnya sistem syariah (syariah) sebesar -1,97 lebih besar dari ttabel sebesar -2,6, maka dapat dikatakan bahwa hipotesis nol (h0) diterima. berarti pentingnya sistem syariah (syariah) mempengaruhi besarnya wtp. tabel 5 menunjukkan koefisien variabel pentingnya sistem syariah (syariah) sebesar -162,775 yang dapat diartikan bahwa tingkat penghasilan dan wtp memiliki korelasi negatif. apabila asumsi seseorang yang menganggap sistem syariah penting bertambah, maka wtp akan berkurang dengan asumsi faktor lain dianggap konstan. uji statistik f digunakan untuk mengetahui pengaruh variabel-variabel independen secara simultan terhadap variabel dependen. hipotesis nol menyatakan bahwa variabel usia, jumlah anggota keluarga, pendidikan terakhir yang ditempuh, tingkat penghasilan, dan pentingnya sistem syariah jika diterapkan secara bersama-sama mempengaruhi wtp untuk peningkatan pelayanan kesehatan bpjs kesehatan kelas iii. hipotesis alternatif menyatakan bahwa variabel usia, jumlah anggota keluarga, pendidikan terakhir yang ditempuh, tingkat penghasilan, dan pentingnya sistem syariah jika diterapkan secara bersama-sama tidak mempengaruhi wtp untuk peningkatan pelayanan kesehatan bpjs kesehatan kelas iii. dengan derajat kebebasan (df) 144-5-1 dan taraf signifikan 1 persen ( = 0.01) diperoleh nilai ftabel sebesar 13,55. pada tabel 3.4 dapat dilihat bahwa nilai f-statistik (fhitung) sebesar 21,288 yang berarti lebih besar dari ftabel (13,55) dan probabilitas f-statistik sebesar 0,000 lebih kecil dari 0,01. dapat disimpulkan bahwa hipotesis nol (h0) diterima, secara simultan variabel usia, jumlah anggota keluarga, pendidikan terakhir yang ditempuh, tingkat penghasilan, dan pentingnya sistem syariah jika diterapkan mempengaruhi wtp untuk peningkatan pelayanan kesehatan bpjs kesehatan kelas iii. pengaruh variabel-variabel terhadap wtp ini secara bersama-sama dijelaskan pada gambar 2. gambar 2. distribusi f: usia, jak, edu, income, syariah terhadap wtp berdasarkan tabel 5 model regresi pada penelitian ini adalah: wtp = 26.637,336 + 0,00039income – 6,624usia – 121,399jak + 44,972edu – 162,775syariah + e tabel 5 menunjukkan r-square yaitu 0,435 yang berarti bahwa variabel usia, jumlah anggota keluarga, pendidikan terakhir yang ditempuh, dan syariah mempengaruhi wtp sebesar 43,5 persen dan sisanya 56,5 persen dipengaruhi oleh faktor lain di luar model. berdasarkan hasil penelitian ini, variabel usia berpengaruh signifikan terhadap besarnya determinan willingness to pay iuran ... (maya andita, masyhudi) 53 wtp untuk peningkatan pelayanan kesehatan bpjs kesehatan kelas iii. nilai koefisien variabel usia memiliki tanda negatif, yang artinya adalah apabila usia meningkat maka wtp akan mengalami penurunan dengan asumsi faktor lain dianggap konstan. hasil penelitian ini mendukung penelitian sebelumnya yang dilakukan oleh lofgren dkk (2008) di vietnam yang menyebutkan bahwa semakin bertambah tua seseorang maka wtp nya akan semakin rendah. hubungan negatif antara usia dengan wtp pada penelitian ini bisa jadi disebabkan oleh semakin meningkatnya usia seseorang, kebutuhan akan barang lain selain kesehatan akan semakin tinggi. hal ini juga disebabkan oleh semakin meningkatnya usia, seseorang cenderung memiliki jumlah anggota keluarga dengan jumlah yang banyak dan meningkatkan kebutuhan sehingga menurunkan besarnya willingness to pay (wtp) untuk peningkatan pelayanan kesehatan bpjs kesehatan kelas iii. hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa jumlah anggota keluarga tidak berpengaruh terhadap wtp untuk peningkatan pelayanan kesehatan bpjs kesehatan kelas iii. nilai koefisien variabel jumlah anggota keluarga memiliki tanda negatif, yang artinya adalah jika jumlah anggota keluarga meningkat maka wtp akan mengalami penurunan dengan asumsi variabel lain dianggap konstan. namun perhitungan tstatistik pada variabel ini tidak menunjukkan adanya hubungan antara jumlah anggota keluarga terhadap wtp. kepesertaan bpjs kesehatan ini tidak secara individu, namun dihitung dan disertakan per kartu keluarga sehingga jika jumlah anggota keluarga yang terdaftar pada kartu keluarga semakin banyak maka beban iuran setiap bulan akan bertambah. beban iuran yang bertambah akan menurunkan willingness to pay (wtp) untuk peningkatan pelayanan kesehatan bpjs kesehatan kelas iii. namun pada dasarnya kepesertaan bpjs kesehatan ini bersifat wajib, sehingga ketika anggota dalam satu keluarga bertambah, maka kepala keluarga yang menanggung biaya harus tetap membayar sesuai yang ditentukan. hasil penelitian ini mendukung penelitian terdahulu yang dilakukan oleh elmamy handayani dkk. bahwa jumlah anggota keluarga tidak mempengaruhi wtp. penyebabnya diduga karena besar iuran yang harus dibayarkan tidak disebutkan secara eksplisit dalam kuisioner dan responden hanya diminta untuk menyebutkan wtp maksimal yang mereka rela bayarkan. hasil penelitian ini bertentangan dengan penelitian yang dilakukan lofgren dkk. yang mengatakan bahwa jumlah anggota keluarga mempengaruhi wtp. berdasarkan hasil penelitian ini, variabel pendidikan terakhir yang ditempuh (edu) memiliki pengaruh positif terhadap wtp untuk peningkatan kualitas pelayanan kesehatan bpjs kesehatan kelas iii. semakin lama seseorang menempuh pendidikan, maka wtp akan mengalami kenaikan. pendidikan terakhir yang ditempuh menunjukkan tingkat pendidikan seseorang, maka semakin tinggi pendidikan seseorang, maka pengetahuan, kesadaran dan pemahaman mengenai kesehatan juga semakin tinggi. hal ini mendukung penelitian terdahulu yang dilakukan oleh lofgren dkk (2008) semakin tinggi pendidikan seseorang, maka pengetahuan dan kebutuhan terhadap layanan kesehatan akan bertambah yang kemudian akan meningkatkan wtp untuk peningkatan kualitas pelayanan kesehatan. berdasarkan hasil olahan data primer, variabel tingkat penghasilan (income) berpengaruh signifikan terhadap besarnya wtp untuk peningkatan pelayanan kesehatan bpjs kelas iii. tanda yang dimiliki oleh variabel tingkat penghasilan menunjukkan pengaruh positif terhadap wtp. dengan asumsi faktor lain dianggap konstan, jika pendapatan meningkat maka wtp juga akan meningkat. pada penelitian sebelumnya yang dilakukan oleh andhika w.p. (2010) mengatakan bahwa pendapatan keluarga berpengaruh terhadap kunjungan ke rumah sakit menggunakan layanan kesehatan. hasil penelitiannya juga mengatakan bahwa pendapatan keluarga sangat berhubungan dengan kemiskinan, hal inilah yang menyebabkan penggunaan layanan kesehatan menjadi relatif kecil. semakin tinggi tingkat penghasilan seseorang, maka mereka akan rela mengeluarkan uang tambahan untuk peningkatan kualitas pelayanan kesehatan bpjs kesehatan kelas iii dengan syarat kualitas pelayanan kesehatan menjadi lebih baik lagi. hasil pengolahan data primer dalam penelitian ini menunjukan bahwa jika sistem syariah jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 1, april 2013: 44-57 54 diterapkan akan berpengaruh negatif terhadap wtp. pengaruh negatif ini dapat dilihat dari tanda negatif yang dimiliki variabel syariah ini. artinya, semakin mereka merasa bahwa sistem syariah ini penting untuk diterapkan maka wtp akan mengalami penurunan. penelitian ini mendukung penelitian sebelumnya yang dilakukan oleh zulkahfi (2013) yang mengatakan bahwa sistem pengelolaan dana bpjs ini masih menggunakan sistem asuransi konvensional sehingga masyarakat yang mengerti akan hal ini merasa bahwa sistem syariah penting untuk diterapkan. dengan kata lain, semakin seseorang merasa bahwa sistem syariah ini penting untuk diterapkan maka semakin turunnya wtp peserta bpjs kesehatan kelas iii yang masih menggunakan sistem konvensional didalamnya. berdasarkan hasil olah data hasil kuisioner dan wawancara langsung kepada 144 orang responden, total willingness to pay (wtp) peserta bpjs kesehatan kelas iii untuk peningkatan kualitas pelayanan kesehatan adalah sebesar rp3.862.300,00 dan rata-rata wtp per orang sebesar rp26.875,00. variabel yang mempengaruhi besarnya wtp adalah tingkat penghasilan, usia, jumlah anggota keluarga, pendidikan terakhir yang ditempuh, dan pentingnya sistem syariah diterapkan. surplus konsumen dapat diketahui melalui total wtp dari 144 orang responden. surplus konsumen sendiri berarti perbedaan antara jumlah yang dibayarkan konsumen untuk barang dan jasa dengan wtp. total surplus dihitung dengan cara melihat selisih dari total wtp dengan besar iuran bpjs kesehatan kelas iii yang dibayarkan oleh 144 orang responden. sebelumnya iuran bpjs kesehatan kelas iii yang telah ditentukan adalah sebesar rp25.500,00. besarnya total surplus konsumen dari 144 orang responden adalah rp3.862.300,00 – (144 x rp25.500,00) = rp190.300,00 dan rata-rata surplus konsumen per orang adalah rp26.875,00 – rp25.500,00 = rp1.375,00. berdasarkan hasil hitung surplus konsumen dapat dijelaskan bahwa dari 144 orang responden dalam penelitian ini rela membayar tambahan iuran untuk peningkatan kualitas pelayanan kesehatan pada bpjs kesehatan kelas iii. iuran bpjs kesehatan bisa saja dinaikan sampai batas maksimal dengan rata-rata surplus konsumen, namun kenaikan iuran tersebut harus disertai dengan peningkatan kualitas pelayanan yang baik. pemerintah dan pengelola bpjs kesehatan dapat bersama-sama menjadikan hal ini sebagai masukan untuk berupaya meningkatkan pelayanan kesehatan khususnya bagi peserta bpjs kesehatan kelas iii. harapannya peningkatan kualitas pelayanan kesehatan bagi peserta bpjs kesehatan kelas iii ini dapat meningkatkan tingkat kesehatan masyarakat yang berpengaruh terhadap kegiatan lainnya yang mengharuskan masyarakat untuk terus menjadi sehat sehingga mampu menjadi solusi untuk mengurangi angka kemiskinan di yogyakarta. simpulan berdasarkan data yang diperoleh dengan proses kuisioner dan wawancara langsung kepada 144 orang peserta bpjs kesehatan kelas iii, didapatkan total willingness to pay (wtp) untuk peningkatan kualitas pelayanan kesehatan adalah sebesar rp3.862.300,00 dengan nilai rata-rata (mean) rp26.875,00. tingkat penghasilan berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap willingness to pay (wtp) bpjs kesehatan kelas iii untuk peningkatan kualitas pelayanan kesehatan. jika penghasilan seseorang meningkat, maka wtp juga akan meningkat dengan asumsi faktor lain dianggap konstan (ceteris paribus). semakin meningkatnya penghasilan seseorang, maka harga yang meningkat tidak akan menjadi beban bagi dirinya sehingga ia akan lebih rela membayar tambahan iuran untuk peningkatan pelayanan kesehatan. usia berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap willingness to pay (wtp) peserta bpjs kesehatan kelas iii untuk peningkatan kualitas pelayanan kesehatan. jika umur seseorang bertambah, maka wtp akan mengalami penurunan dengan asumsi faktor lain dianggap konstan (ceteris paribus). semakin bertambah tua seseorang, maka kebutuhan akan hal-hal lain akan meningkat, sehingga ia akan mengurangi perhatiannya terhadap kesehatan. oleh karena itu, usia yang terus bertambah akan mengurangi besarnya willingness to pay (wtp) untuk peningkatan kualitas pelayanan kesehatan bpjs kesehatan kelas iii. jumlah anggota keluarga tidak berpengadeterminan willingness to pay iuran ... (maya andita, masyhudi) 55 ruh dan signifikan terhadap willingness to pay (wtp) untuk peningkatan kualitas pelayanan kesehatan bpjs kesehatan kelas iii. jika jumlah anggota keluarga bertambah atau berkurang, maka wtp tidak akan menurun atau bertambah dengan asumsi faktor lain dianggap konstan (ceteris paribus). sistem kepesertaan bpjs kesehatan diterapkan menurut anggota keluarga yang terdaftar dalam kartu keluarga sehingga kepala keluarga sebagai sumber penghasilan dalam satu keluarga harus menanggung iuran bpjs kesehatan sejumlah anggota keluarga tersebut. namun sistem kepesertaan ini bersifat wajib sehingga kepala keluarga tidak memiliki pilihan bayar. hal ini juga diduga karena dalam kuisioner penelitian ini tidak disebutkan secara eksplisit jumlah iuran yang harus dibayarkan oleh responden. responden hanya diminta untuk mengisi wtp maksimal yang rela dibayarkan untuk iuran bpjs kesehatan kelas iii. pendidikan terakhir yang ditempuh berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap willingness to pay (wtp) untuk peningkatan kualitas pelayanan kesehatan bpjs kesehatan kelas iii. dengan asumsi faktor lain dianggap konstan (ceteris paribus), jika pendidikan terakhir yang ditempuh meningkat maka akan meningkatkan wtp. pendidikan terakhir yang ditempuh menunjukkan tingkat pendidikan seseorang. semakin tinggi pendidikan seseorang, maka pengetahuan, kesadaran dan pemahaman mengenai kesehatan juga tinggi. mereka cenderung lebih memperhatikan masalah kesehatan lebih jeli. pentingnya sistem syariah jika diterapkan pada bpjs kesehatan berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap willingness to pay (wtp). jika rasa penting akan sistem syariah ini meningkat maka wtp untuk peningkatan pelayanan kesehatan akan mengalami penurunan. mayoritas penduduk indonesia yang beragama islam saat ini lebih memilih sesuatu yang berbau syariah dengan anggapan sistem syariah tersebut akan meningkatkan suatu sistem. semakin seseorang merasa bahwa sistem syariah ini perlu diterapkan, maka wtp akan menurun dengan harapan sistem pada bpjs kesehatan akan merubah sistemnya menjadi sistem syariah agar lebih baik lagi dan tidak mengandung gharar serta maisyir. berdasarkan hasil pengolahan data, nilai rata-rata (mean) willingness to pay (wtp) yang didapatkan adalah sebesar rp 26.875,00. ratarata tersebut didapat melalui proses kuisioner dan wawancara langsung dengan 144 orang responden, yang berarti bahwa kenaikan pada harga rp26.875,00 masih dianggap wajar. sejumlah 144 orang responden tersebut tidak bermasalah jika harga naik dengan range yang wajar, namun informasi, pelayanan, dan kesediaan obat di puskesmas/rumah sakit yang menerima pasien peserta bpjs kesehatan kelas iii harus juga ditingkatkan. usia berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap willingness to pay (wtp) peserta bpjs kelas iii. diharapkan pelayanan terhadap peserta bpjs kesehatan kelas iii ini lebih ditingkatkan mengingat dengan semakin tingginya usia maka kadar toleransi terhadap pelayanan yang kurang baik semakin berkurang. tingkat penghasilan berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap willingness to pay (wtp) peserta bpjs kesehatan kelas iii untuk peningkatan pelayanan kesehatan. semakin tinggi pendapatan seseorang, maka tingkat harapan mendapatkan pelayanan yang baik akan meningkat juga sehingga ia akan rela membayar tambahan untuk peningkatan pelayanan kesehatan. sistem pembayaran iuran bpjs kesehatan yang langsung dipotong melalui gaji juga menjadi salah satu alasan mengapa harapan mengenai pelayanan kesehatan yang berkualitas semakin tinggi. maka diharapkan pihak puskesmas/rumah sakit yang menangani pasien bpjs kesehatan tidak membeda-bedakan pelayanannya. meskipun dalam penelitian ini jumlah anggota keluarga tidak berpengaruh terhadap willingness to pay (wtp) peserta bpjs kesehatan kelas iii. diharapkan pihak puskesmas/rumah sakit menyediakan pelayanan yang baik karena setiap peserta bpjs kesehatan telah membayar dengan tanggungan satu keluarga, bukan hanya satu individu. pengelola bpjs kesehatan juga diharapkan dapat memperhatikan keluarga dengan jumlah anggota keluarga yang terbilang cukup banyak untuk meminimalisir adanya tunggakan pembayaran karena beban iuran yang cukup tinggi. pendidikan terakhir yang ditempuh berpengaruh positif secara signifikan terhadap willingness to pay (wtp) peserta bpjs kesehatan kelas iii untuk peningkatan pelayanan kesehatan. kualitas pelayanan meliputi fasilitas, informasi, jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 1, april 2013: 44-57 56 dan sikap pelayanan hendaknya ditingkatkan karena masyarakat dengan pendidikan tinggi akan lebih kritis dan paham akan kesehatan. mereka akan memilih puskesmas/rumah sakit dengan kualitas yang baik untuk menunjang kesehatan dirinya dan keluarga demi meningkatkan kualitas hidup. pentingnya sisetem syariah berpengaruh negatif secara signifikan terhadap willingness to pay (wtp) peserta bpjs kesehatan kelas iii untuk peningkatan kualitas pelayanan kesehatan. pada masa sekarang ini, masyarakat sudah mulai paham akan pentingnya sistem syariah dalam aspek muamalah sehingga ketika isu bpjs haram mulai marak dibicarakan, mereka lebih akan memilih bpjs kesehatan syariah jika nantinya akan diterapkan. hal ini dapat menjadi pertimbangan bagi pengelola bpjs kesehatan demi peningkatan pelayanan kesehatan yang lebih baik. daftar pustaka basuki, a, t. (2015). regresi dalam penelitian ekonomi dan bisnis. yogyakarta: penerbit andi. anonim, presiden setuju iuran bpjs kesehatan dinaikan, http://www.bpjs.info/beritabpjs/presiden_setu jui_iuran_bpjs_kesehatan_dinaikkan-7007/. maharani, a, dan wardhani, v. (2011). analisis pengaruh kepemilikan asuransi kesehatan terhadap kemauan membayar produk pelayanan laboratorium, volume 14/no.01/maret 2011/halaman 44-48, magister manajemen rumah sakit universitas brawijaya, malang. murti, b., (2005), pendapatan, pendidikan, tempat tinggal, dan kemauan membayar asuransi kesehatan anaks: penggunaan teknik “bidding game”, jmpk vol. 08/no.02/ juni/ 2015, departement of public health. lofgren, c, dkk., (2008). people’s willingness to pay for health insurance in rural vietnam, cost effectiveness and resource allocation 2008, 6:16, hanoi medical university, vietnam. elmamy, dkk. (tt). faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi kemauan masyarakat membayar iuran jaminan kesehatan di kabupaten hulu sungai selatan, universitas padjajaran. fitri syarifah, tarif bpjs kecil, rs cenderung pilih-pilih pasien, http://health.liputan6.com/read/2149508/tarif -bpjs-kecil-rs-cenderung-pilih-pilih-pasien. diakses tanggal 20 maret 2012 pk 22.41 wib. kementrian kesehatan, (2013). buku saku faq (frequently asked questions) bpjs kesehatan, kementrian kesehatan ri, jakarta. kruk, m, dkk., (2009). borrowing and selling to pay for health care in low-and middleincome countries. health affairs vol.28, united states. todaro, m, p, dan smith, c, smith., (2009). economic development, eleven edition, jakarta: erlangga. kamal, m. (2013). faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi willingness to pay pengguna trans jogja, universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta. petty primatury a. p., dan budi, n, p., (tt). penataan ulang program bpjs kesehatan dengan penggunaan chat eksperimen dan memperhatikan kesediaan membayar (willingness to pay) masyarakat terhadap iuran jaminan kesehatan. semarang: program studi teknik industri. universitas diponegoro. putra, a, w. (2010). analisis permintaan penggunaan layanan kesehatan pada rumah sakit umum milik pemerintah di kabupaten semarang. semarang: universitas diponegoro. putri adyowati, (2015) ini alasan mui beri fatwa haram program bpjs kesehatan, http:// nasional.tempo.co/read/news/2015/07/30/1736 87699/ini-alasan-mui-beri-fatwa-haram-bpjskesehatan/2. diakses tanggal 17 september 2012 pk 10.52 wib. putu linda a. w., dan ketut suarjana. (2013). the analysis of ability and willingness to pay of inpatients in kapal bandung hospital, volume 1/no.1/ 2013/halaman 48-53, ps ilmu kesehatan masyarakat fak. kedokteran universitas udayana. saptutyningsih, e. (2007). faktor-faktor yang berpengaruh terhadap willingness to pay determinan willingness to pay iuran ... (maya andita, masyhudi) 57 untuk perbaikan kualitas air sungai code di kota yogyakarta, jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan vol.8 no.2 oktober 2007 universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta. subirman, dkk., (2007). pembiayaan jaminan kesehatan daerah berdasarkan biaya satuan, kemampuan membayar, dan kemauan membayar masyarakat di kota samarinda. universitas hasanudin, makassar. zulkahfi. (2013). jaminan kesehatan nasional (jkn) dalam perspektif hukum islam, yogyakarta: universitas islam negeri sunan kalijaga. microsoft word 01-yahya_rev1 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015, hlm.1-13 factors influencing economic growth in indonesia: error correction model (ecm) yahya muqorrobin institute of public policy and economic studies jalan kenari 13 sidoarum iii yogyakarta, indonesia correspondence e-mail: yahya.mq27@gmail.com received: juli 2014; accepted: february 2015 abstract: the main objective of this study is to identify and analyze the effect of foreign direct investments (fdi), foreign debts, bank credit and labor force on the economic growth in indonesia. annual data during the period of 1985-2013 are used in this study and collected from bank indonesia, bkpm, and bps. the study uses error correction model (ecm). the result shows that foreign direct investment, bank credit and labor force positively and significantly influence the economic growth in indonesia in short term and long term analyses. in the other hand, foreign debt negatively and significantly influences the economic growth in indonesia in short term and long term. keywords: economic growth; foreign direct investment; foreign debt; bank credit; labor force jel classification: f43, p45 abstrak: tujuan studi adalah mengidentifikasi dan menganalisis pengaruh penanaman modal asing (pma), hutang luar negeri, kredit bank, dan angkatan kerja terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di indonesia. studi ini menggunakan data tahunan tahun 1985-2013 yang diperoleh dari bank indonesia, bkpm, dan bps. model yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah error correction model (ecm). hasil studi menunjukkan bahwa penanaman modal asing, kredit bank, dan angkatan kerja berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di indonesia dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. sebaliknya, hutang luar negeri berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di indonesia dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. kata kunci: pertumbuhan ekonomi; penanaman modal asing; hutang luar negeri; kredit bank; angkatan kerja klasifikasi jel: f43, p45 introduction economic growth is one indicator that is very important in the analysis of economic development that occurs in a country. economic growth shows the extent to which economic activity will generate additional income to the communities in a given period. it is because economic activity is basically a process to produce output, measured with the gdp indicator. indonesia as a developing country tries to build the nation without expecting help from other countries. however it is difficult to survive in the middle of the swift currents of globalization that continue to grow rapidly. under these conditions, indonesia finally has to follow the flow by collaborating with other countries in the implementation of national development, especially the joint national economy. indonesia actually never had a promising economy in the early 1980s to middle 1990s. based on data from bps, indonesia's economic growth since 1986 until 1989 continued to increase, i.e. 5.9 percent respectively in 1986, then 6.9 percent in 1988 and to 7.5 percent in 1989. yet from 1990 to six years later the eco jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015: 1-13 2 nomic growth rates fluctuated. however, at a certain point, the indonesian economy finally collapses under the brunt of the economic crisis globally around the world. it is characterized by high rates of inflation, the value of the rupiah which continued to weaken, the high rate of unemployment, and coupled with the increasingly growing number of indonesian foreign debt due to weaker exchange rate. since the crisis hit in the middle of 1997 it has become a big shock for the growth of the national economy. the monetary crisis affected the rate of economic growth in 1998 which experienced a minus of 13.1 percent and the increase of foreign debt from 269 trillion rupiah in 1997 to 573 trillion rupiah. further indirect impacts of this crisis also hit the banking world one year later, when total bank credit in the form of consumption and capital declined from rp487 trillion in 1998 to rp225 trillion. indonesia's economic growth in 1999 starts growing positively despite only at the rate of 0.79 percent after a huge decline in 1998. early signs of economic recovery has begun it seems, that monetary stability was under control, which was reflected in a low inflation rate and a stronger exchange rate, and political and social circumstances that have been more favorable. a level of economic growth is determined, among others by the power of investment sector, foreign aid sector, and labor productivity. economic growth requires an increase in investment funds that in turn require funding from both domestic and abroad. from these two sources of financing, domestic sources should be the principal source of financing, especially viewed from the context in which the long-term economic growth of a country should base their investment financing from domestic sources (syaharani, 2011). because of the limited domestic resources owned while fund requirement for economic development is very large, and to overcome the lack of funds needed in the process of national development since pelita i recent years, revenue funding is made from abroad, both in the form of foreign debt and foreign direct investment (fdi) (kamaluddin, 2007). the role of foreign aid and foreign capital to the progress, growth and economic development of developing countries has long been a heated debate among groups of the world economy. a group of economists in the 1950s and 1960s argued and believed that foreign aid has a positive impact on the economic development of a country without causing disruption in the aftermath of the debtor countries (kamaluddin, 2007). for developing countries such as indonesia, the rapid flow of capital is a good opportunity to obtain economic development financing. however, if the funds are given through debt, then gradually foreign debts seem to be a boomerang for indonesia because it leaves a lot of issues, especially foreign debts that have high interest rates. for a government, foreign debt payment is the largest consumption in the state budget in the last decade. while our country still has to pay for a wide range of other economic sectors that are also important and urgent (anwar, 2011). as an alternative to foreign debt, to get the funds from abroad can be done through foreign direct investment (fdi). as well as with foreign debt, foreign direct investment (fdi) is one of the sources of financing for table 1. economic growth, foreign debt, banking credit and inflation in indonesia 1995-2002 no. year economic growth foreign debt (rptrillion) banking credit (rptrillion) inflation 1 1995 8.24 148660.59 242423 9.4 2 1996 7.77 140660.59 306125 7.9 3 1997 4.59 269049.00 476841 6.2 4 1998 -13.24 573538.73 487426 58.0 5 1999 0.79 573140.40 225133 20.7 6 2000 4.86 782462.66 269000 3.8 7 2001 3.83 742320.80 307594 11.5 8 2002 4.25 700967.52 367410 6.8 source: bps and bi (data processing) factors influencing economic growth ... (yahya muqorrobin) 3 development and national economic growth. fdi is directed to replace the role of foreign debt to finance the growth and development of the national economy. the role of foreign capital becomes even more crucial given the fact that the amount of indonesia's foreign debt has increased significantly. foreign direct investment (fdi) destination country is believed to be beneficial, especially in terms of development and economic growth. much empirical evidence such as the experiences in south korea, malaysia, thailand, china, and many other countries shows that the presence of fdi gave a lot of positive things to the economy of the host country. in the case of indonesia, the most obvious evidence is the past under the new order. indonesian economy may not be able to rise again from the destruction created by the old order and could experience an average economic growth of 7 percent per year during the period of the 1980s when no fdi. of course many other factors that also serve as a source of growth drivers such as aid or foreign debt and the seriousness of the new order government to build a national economy when it is reflected by the presence of repelita and political and social stability. literature theory also gives a strong argument that there is a positive correlation between fdi and economic growth in the recipient country (tambunan, 2007). the thought that supports that foreign capital has a positive effect on domestic savings and financing imports got a lot of challenges from the camp followers of dependency theory (dependencia). they concluded that only a small proportion of foreign capital has a positive effect on domestic savings and economic growth. the main hypothesis is the dependency theory of fdi and foreign debt in the short-term that increase economic growth; more countries depend on fdi and foreign debt, so the difference in earnings (income) becomes greater and in turn equity is not achieved (anwar, 2011). foreign direct investment (fdi) is an alternative to meet the development needs of capital. in indonesia, fdi regulated in the act of foreign investment (uupma) which is a legal base of fdi to come to indonesia. the indonesian government attempted to encourage the business climate so as to attract the interest of private sector enterprises, especially for foreigners, so the act no. 1/1967 on foreign direct investment (fdi) was issued. the act was refined in 1970 to be act no. 11/1970. in addition to investment, labor is a factor that affects the output of a region. a large labor force will be formed from a large population. however, population growth could cause significant negative effects on economic growth. according to todaro (2000) rapid population growth gave rise to the problem of under development and make the prospect of the development becomes increasingly distant. further, it is said that the population problem arises not because of the large number of family members, but because they are concentrated in the urban areas as a result of the rapid rate of migration from rural to urban. however, quite a number of people with high levels of education and have the skills to be able to encourage economic growth. as the total population of productive age is big it will be able to increase the amount of available work force and will eventually to increase the production output in a region (rustiono, 2008). today the condition of indonesian labor has always been central of attention in economic development. previously indonesia has experienced a period of rapid population growth, but the redundant characteristic colors the economic life in indonesia. the implementation of equity-oriented to the development is also done with the direction to improve and increase the income of low-income communities. because in the development the population also serves as the workforce development issues that will arise in employment. hence the ever growing population in the presence of continued economic development needs more investment. in addition, the problem of capital and labor, the banking sector as intermediary institutions that facilitate the distribution of funds from the excess (surplus) to that lack of funds (deficit) also takes an important position in the economic development, which is reflected through credit. banking credit has an important role in financing the national economy and is a driving force of economic growth. availability of credit allows households to make better consumption and enables the company to make an jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015: 1-13 4 investment that cannot be done with their own funds. in addition to the problems of moral hazard and adverse selection that are common, banks play an important role in allocating capital and monitoring to ensure that public funds are channeled to activities that provide optimal benefits. regardless the recent rise in the role of financing through capital markets, financing through financial companies that include banks and financial institutions, bank credit is still dominating the total credit of the private sector with an average of 85 percent (diah et al., 2012). banking has a function to stimulate economic growth and expand employment opportunities through the provision of a number of funds and business development. especially for businesses, a fund provided by banks is in the form of credit. total demand for loans in a bank is affected by various factors, both in terms of the debtor and the creditor (bank) itself. credit demand from the debtor (business) is influenced by the presence of an effort to increase business activity, either in the form of investment or working capital. in terms of banking, credit demand is influenced by factors such as interest rate loan, line of credit, sbi, government policies and services to the customers of the bank itself. in the end, if the bank that issues the funds through various financing can be put to better use then it will trigger good climate in economic and business climate and will trigger economic growth in general. some previous studies about the determinants of economic growth have in many countries. liwan and lau (2007) found that exports, investment and inflation have an influence on economic growth in indonesia, malaysia and thailand, the only difference is positive or negative influence. export has positive effect on economic growth in indonesia, malaysia and thailand. inflation negatively affects the economic growth of thailand and malaysia, but it has a positive effect on economic growth in indonesia. the inflation rate in indonesia is quite stable for several years, which carries a positive relationship between inflation and economic growth. the investment has a positive effect on economic growth in indonesia, malaysia and thailand. mardalena (2009) found that the estimation is based on the results of the regression model, the variable of international trade (which includes exports and imports and net exports) has a positive and significant impact on the growth of economy while the variable investment (domestic and foreign) is positive but doesn’t have significant effect on the level of significance of 5 percent of the economy growth. anwar (2011) found that the negative effect of foreign debt to gross domestic product. foreign investment has a positive effect on gdp. looking at the description of issues described above of course back in the end it boils down to one purpose of indonesia's economic growth, which indicates the extent to which economic activity will generate additional income of the people in a given period. it is because economic activity is basically a process of using the factors of production to produce output. the purpose of this study is determines the effect of foreign direct investment (fdi), foreign debt, bank credit, and labor force to the indonesian economic growth in the short term and long term, respectively. research method in this study, the data used are quantitative data. this study used a literature study on the effects of foreign debt, foreign direct investment (fdi), bank credit and labor force on economic growth in indonesia. this study used a time series study of the years 1985-2013. variables used in the study consisted of four variables consisting of one dependent variable (dependent variable) and four independent variables (independent variable). the dependent variables are economic growth is denoted by "gdp". the independent variables are foreign direct investment (fdi), bank credit, foreign debt, and the labor force. data this study uses secondary data time series in the form of annual data with an observation period from the 1985-2013. the data used in this study are as follows: 1) data on economic growth rate used is gross domestic product (gdp) in constant prices year 2000 in indonesia, based on the data obtained from bps publications; 2) the factors influencing economic growth ... (yahya muqorrobin) 5 data on foreign direct investment (fdi) was obtained from the published reports of indonesia's balance of payments issued by bank indonesia (bi) and the investment coordinating board (bkpm); 3) the data of labor force are based on data obtained from bps publications; 4) the data on the foreign debt is obtained by the government and the private sector of indonesia's foreign debt statistics published by bank indonesia (bi); 5) the data of bank credit obtained from the publication of bank indonesia (bi). data analysis the method used in this study is the approach of error correction model (ecm), because this model is able to test whether the empirical model is consistent with economic theory and in the solution of the time series variables are not stationary and spurious regression (thomas, 1997). spurious regression is chaotic regression, with a significant result regression of the data that is not related. error correction model (ecm) is a model used to see the effect of long-term and shortterm of each of the independent variables to the variables bound. according to sargan, engle and granger, error correction model (ecm) is a technique for correcting short-term imbalance towards a long-term equilibrium, and can explain the relationship between the variables bound by the independent variables in the present and the past. in determining the linear regression model approach through error correction model (ecm), there are several assumptions that must be met as follows stationary test, integration degree test and cointegration test. stationary test before estimating the time series data stationary test must be conducted. estimation of nonstationary data will lead to the onset of super inconsistencies of regression and spurious regression, so actually a classic inference method cannot be applied (gujarati, 1999). the method recently used by a lot of econometrics to test the stationary problem is the data unit root test. the first unit root test was developed by dickey-fuller unit root test and known as the dickey-fuller (df). the basic idea of data stationary test by the unit root test can be explained through the following models): 1 1 1) where et is a random disturbance variable or stochastic with mean zero, constant variance and uncorrelated (nonautokorelasi) as ols. the disturbance variable that has that nature is called the white noise disturbance variables (gujarati, 1999). if the value of ρ = 1 then we say that the random variable or (stochastic) y has a unit root. if the time series data have a unit root, then the data are said to be moving at random and the data is said to have the nature of a random walk data is not stationary (gujarati, 1999). to test whether the data contain unit roots or not, dickey fuller regression models suggest to do the following: ∆ 2) ∆ 3) ∆ 4) where t is the time variable. in the model, if the time series contains a unit root, which means no stationary so null hypothesis is = 0, while the alternative hypothesis is <0 which indicates the data stationary. df test in equation (2) and (4) is a simple model and can only be done if the time series data simply follow the pattern of the ar (1). for time series data that contain a higher ar where the assumption of no autocorrelation is not met, the dickey fuller developed a unit root test that incorporates elements of the higher ar and adds a variable lags differentiation in the right side of the equation. this test is known as augmented dickey fuller (adf) with the following formulation: ∆ ∑ ∆ 5) ∆ ∑ ∆ 6) jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015: 1-13 6 ∆ ∑ ∆ 7) where: y = observed variables; δyt = yt yt-1; t = time trend to determine the stationary of data, the comparison between the values of the adf statistic with the critical value is a statistical distribution τ. adf statistic value indicated by the value of t statistic coefficient yt-1. if the absolute value of the adf statistic is greater than the critical value, then indicates reject the null hypothesis that means the data is stationary. conversely, if the absolute value of the adf is smaller than the critical value, it indicates the data are not stationary (indira, 2011). integration degree test integration degree test is a continuation of the unit root test. if after testing the unit root turns out the data is not stationary, then they are retested using the first difference value data. if the data have not been stationary first difference then we tested with data from both the differences and so on until the data is stationary (gujarati, 1999). cointegration test if all the variables pass from the unit root test, the cointegration test is then performed to determine the likelihood of long-term equilibrium or stability among the observed variables. in this study the method used to test the engel and granger cointegration variables is by making the df-adf statistic test to see if the cointegration regression residuals were stationary or not. to calculate the value of the df and adf cointegration regression equation was formed first by the method of ordinary least squares (ols). regression equation which will be tested in this study were as proposed by (nachrowi, 2006). lnyt = β0 + β1lnfdit + β2lnedt + β3lncret + β4lnlft + et 8) where: β0 = intercept/constant; β1, β2, β3 = regression coefficient, lnyt = gross domestic product in period t; lnfdi = foreign investment in period t; lnedt = foreign debt in period t; lnlft = labor force in period t; lncret = bank lending period t; et = error term the regression equation above was used to obtain residual value. then the residual value (et) were tested using the augmented dickey fuller to see if the residual value is stationary or not. the residual value is said stationary if the absolute value of adf count is smaller or larger than the absolute critical value of mckinnon at α = 1%, 5%, or 10%, and it can be said that regression is cointegrated regression. in econometric variables, they are said to be mutually cointegrated in the long-term equilibrium. testing is particularly important when the dynamic model will be developed. thus, by using the model above the interpretation would not be misleading, especially for long-term analysis. error correction model (ecm) analysis a technique for correcting imbalances in the short term to the long-term equilibrium is called error correction model (ecm). this method is a single regression connecting the first differentiation in the dependent variable (δ yt) and the first differentiation for all independent variables in the model. this method was developed by engel and granger in 1987. the general form of the ecm method (nachrowi, 2006) are as follows: ∆ ∆ ∆ ∆ 9) to find the model specification with a model ecm which is valid, it can be seen in the results of statistical tests on the coefficients of the regression residuals β4 or first, which would then be called error correction term (ect). if the results of the ect coefficient test is significant, then the observed model specification is valid. in this study, ecm analysis model which is used can be formulated in full as follows: yt= f (lnfdit, lnedt, lnakt, lnkret, ectt-1) 10) factors influencing economic growth ... (yahya muqorrobin) 7 ∆ ∆ ∆ ∆ + ∆ 11) description: lnyt = gross domestic product in period t; lnfdi = foreign investment in period t; lnedt = foreign debt in period t; lnlft = labor force in period t; lncret = bank lending period t; ect t‐1 = error correction term in the previous period based on the calculations of linear regression analysis of the ecm above, it can be seen that the value of the variable ect (error correction term), which is a variable that indicates the balance of the investment. it can make an indicator that the model specification, whether or not through significance level of error correction coefficient (wing, 2007). if the ect variable α = significance at 5 percent, then the coefficient will be an adjustment in the event of fluctuations of observed variables which deviate from the long-term relationship. in other words, the model specification is already is authentic (valid) and can explain the variation in the dependent variable. result and discussion stationary test before estimating the time series data stationary test is conducted prior data. estimation of nonstationary data will lead to the emergence of super inconsistencies and spurious regression, so that the actual classical inference methods cannot be applied (gujarati, 1999). the method used in this study is the unit roots test. stationary time series data shows a constant pattern over time. the unit root test used in this study is the augmented dickey fuller test (adf). if the value of the adf tstatistic is greater than the mackinnon critical value, then the variable does not has a unit root so it is stationary at a particular significance level. conversely, if the value of the adf tstatistic is smaller than the mackinnon critical value, then the variable has a unit roots so it is not stationary at a particular significance level. unit root test is done one by one or all variables in the analysis that will be both dependent and independent variables. unit root test results are obtained on the level, and it can be seen in table 2. table 2 shows that no variable is stationary either gross domestic product (gdp), bank credit, foreign direct investment (fdi), foreign debt or labor force at the level. this shows that the test data should continue with the degree of integration testing. integration degree test because the unit root test with observed data at level is not stationary, it is necessary to proceed with trials testing degree of integration. this test is intended to determine what degree of observed data is stationary. because the degree of integration testing is a continuation of the unit root test, the test step is identical to the unit root test to distinguish difference in the course and assumptions used are the same hypothesis. table 3 shows the results of the unit root test on the 1st level difference which showed an improvement, but not all variables showed stationary. still there is one variable that is ak (labor force) who have not stationary, it is necessary to continue testing the unit roots at 2nd level difference. table 4 (appendix) showed that five variables have been stationary at the second table 2. augmented dickey fuller resultant level variable adf t-statistik mackinnon critical values description 1% 5% 10% ln gdp -0.480123 -3.689194 -2.971853 -2.625121 nonstasioner ln cre -0.943938 -3.689194 -2.971853 -2.625121 nonstasioner ln fdi -0.698373 -3.689194 -2.971853 -2.625121 nonstasioner ln ed -1.506046 -3.689194 -2.971853 -2.625121 nonstasioner ln lf -3.597341 -3.699871 -2.976263 -2.627420 nonstasioner jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015: 1-13 8 level difference, the variable y (gdp), credit, fdi, foreign debt and ak, at a significance level of 5 percent. therefore it can be said that all the data used in this study are integrated the second difference. long-term analysis cointegration test. cointegration test used in this study employed engel and granger method, by making the df-ad f statistic test to see whether the co integration regression residuals is stationary or not. to calculate the value of the df and adf equation first cointegration regression was formed by the method of ordinary least squares (ols). then after the regression equation residuals from the equation were obtained. regression equation is formulated as follows: yt = β0 + β1lnfdit + β2lnedt + β3lncret + β4lnlft + et the results of equation engle-granger cointegration test is as follows: yt = β0 + β1lnfdit + β2lnedt + β3lncret + β4lnlft 6.889323 0.026936 0.140683 0.173240 1.464111 based on table 5 it can be seen that the whole of each independent variable (fdi, foreign debt, cre, lf) significantly affects the dependent variable (gdp). fdi has positive coefficient (0.026936), with a probability value of 0089 or significant at 10 percent level. these results are certainly consistent with the hypothesis that states that there is a positive effect between fdi and economic growth in the long run. table 5. the result of engle granger cointegration test for long-term variable coefficient (t-stat) constanta 6.889323 (7.510389)*** lnfdi 0.026936 (1.770024)* lned -0.140683 (-3.770454)*** lncre lnlf 0.173240 (7.546343)*** 1.464111 (4.348201)*** r-square 0,993205 fstat 887.0107*** dw stat 1.113695 ( ) shows standard error; ***significance at level 1%; **significance at level 5%; *significance at level 10% the results of this study demonstrate that in the long run there is a positive correlation between fdi growth rates in indonesia. this is because high levels of fdi will increase production capacity, capability, which ultimately led to the opening of new jobs. thus, the unemployment rate is reduced and the ordinary people's income will increase. the presence of fdi also allows the transfer of technology and knowledge from developed countries to developing countries. however, when seen from the regression coefficient, variable of fdi in the long-term relationship indicates that is relatively small numbers and the significance level is quite low. table 3. augmented dickey fuller result at 1st difference variable adf t-statistik mackinnon critical values description 1% 5% 10% gdp -3.722986 -3.699871 -2.976263 -2.627420 stasioner cre -4.249008 -3.699871 -2.976263 -2.627420 stasioner fdi -6.160319 -3.699871 -2.976263 -2.627420 stasioner ed -4.638136 -3.699871 -2.976263 -2.627420 stasioner lf -2.377881 -3.711457 -2.981038 -2.629906 nonstasioner factors influencing economic growth ... (yahya muqorrobin) 9 this indicates that the contribution of fdi as a driving force of economic growth in indonesia is still not optimal. this is because there are still many problems faced in their own country, such as upholding the rule of law, labor law, regional autonomy and other issues that have not created a conducive of investment climate. although the rate of investment in indonesia is still relatively minimal compared to countries in southeast asia and various investment problems in indonesia, but in fact the figure is still able to contribute to the development of indonesia's gdp. this indicates that the multiplier effect of fdi is quite a positive impact on gdp growth. foreign debt have a negative coefficient (-0.140683), with a probability value of 0.0009 or significant at 1 percent level. these results are certainly not consistent with the hypothesis that states that there is a positive effect between foreign debt and economic growth in the long run. although in theory there is positive effect of foreign debt to gdp, but based on the results of the analysis in the long run it turns negative effect on gdp as a result of several factors, including; there still a large amount of foreign debt from year to year as well as the large amount of debt principal repayments and interest to be paid by the government. since the orde baru government to indonesia bersatu government, one of the economic policies that never changes is the use of foreign debt as a source for the development cycle of the grant, which is always contained in the structure of the state budget (apbn). so it is not surprising that a buildup of foreign debt alone swelled from year to year. every year, the government is obliged to pay the foreign debt. to pay the debt principal repayments and interest, the government was forced to seek new debt which is never sufficient in amount to pay the debt on any of the current budget. if we look at the fact that indonesia's foreign debt continues to increase from year to year and to reach 2000 trillion more in 2013, it can be said that in such circumstances the indonesian nation has entered into a debt trap, which forced the government to "dig a hole close the holes " to pay the of foreign debt each year. in addition to the low added value of debt as a source of funds for development, such as foreign debt is not appropriate, make foreign debt negatively impacts the main objective of foreign debt capital increase that will have an impact on economic growth in indonesia. several studies have shown that the greater the debt of a country, the greater the potential for corruption and misuse of funds of the debt (anwar, 2011). another factor is the cause of the increasing foreign debt but it is not a positive influence for indonesia to borrow in dollars and the value of the rupiah against the dollar continues to fluctuate, so that the actual foreign debt increases but not the amount of the loan it is due to the increase in the exchange rate against the dollar. for example, when there is a crisis in 1998 foreign debt rose sharply to reach 573 trillion from the previous year amounted to 269 trillion, and the type we saw the rupiah against the dollar also raised sharply from 4650 in 1997 to 8025 in the next year, and continued to increase from year to year. bank credit has a positive coefficient (1.464111), with a probability value of 0:00 or significant at the 1 percent level. these results are certainly consistent with the hypothesis that states that there is a positive effect between bank credit and economic growth in the long run. these results are consistent with the theory of the relationship between bank credit and economic growth, which states that banks credit can create and boost business and employment field. bank credit can create and improve the distribution of the community’s income. indirect lending by the bank will increase state revenue from corporate taxes that are growing and developing its business volume (herlina, 2011). the labor force has a positive coefficient (0.173240), with a probability value of 0.0002 or significant at the 1 percent level. these results are certainly consistent with the hypothesis that states that there is a positive effect between the labor force and economic growth in the long run. these results are also consistent with the theory that states that labor is an input of the production process that will contribute positively to the aggregate output of a region from both cost and production. so there is a positive relationship between the amounts of labor force on economic growth. an increase in the labor force will increase production inputs so that jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015: 1-13 10 aggregate productivity increases, so it will ultimately have an impact on economic growth of a region (soeparno, 2011). the result of the estimation of the longterm equation shows the v alue of f-statistic 887.0107 with a probability value 0.00000. this value is smaller than 1 percent significance level so that it can be concluded that together there is significant influence between independent variables as a whole is made up of foreign direct investment (fdi), foreign debt, bank credit and labor force to variable dependent gross domestic product. the results of the estimation of the longterm equation show that the value of dw (durbin watson) was 1.113695. this shows the model does not contain autocorrelation because the dw value is between -2 to +2. after we did the test of ordinary least squares method (ols) then we will have a residual variable, and then proceed to test the residual variable, whether stationary or non stationary. the result of data processing co integration test can be seen in table 6. table 6 shows that the variable e has been stationary at the second difference level. this means there is an indication that the variable e for the data second difference and the long lag 1 does not contain a unit root, in other words the variable e is already stationary, so it is concluded that there is co integration between all variables included in the model y (gdp). this has the meaning that in the long run there will be a balance or stability between observed variables. short-term analysis error correction model (ecm) tests. having escaped from the cointegration test, the next step is to form the equation error correction model (ecm). the equation to be set up as follows: ∆ ∆ ∆ ∆ ∆ ∆ description: yt = gross domestic product in period t; lnfdi = foreign direct investment in period t. lnedt = foreign debt in period t; lnlft = labor force in period t; lncret = bank lending period t; ectt-1 = error correction term in the previous period the above equation is constructed based on the results of the test that all variables have been stationary in the second difference shown by the notation δ. error correction model (ecm) is used to estimate the short-term dynamic models of the variable gross domestic product. use of ecm estimation methods can combine short-and long-term effects caused by fluctuations and time lags of each independent variable. based on the results of the ecm test showed the following results on table 7. table 7. engle granger cointegration test result for short-term variable coefficient (t-stat) constanta 0.042764 (1.894009)* dfdi(-2) 0.026601 (2.209709)** ded(-2) -0.140683 (-3.770454)*** dcre(-2) dlf(-2) 0.149893 (6.543326)*** 0.840824 (1.983408)** e(-2) -0.604796 (-2.429299)** r-square 0.827312 fstat 20.12127* dw stat 1.461093 ( ) standard error; ***significance at level 1 %; **significance at level ; 5 %; *significance at level 10% tabel 6. augmented dickey fuller result in residual equation variable adf t-statistic mackinnon critical value result description 1% 5% 10% e -4.750964 -3.769597 -3.004861 -2.642242 co integrated factors influencing economic growth ... (yahya muqorrobin) 11 the equation above is a dynamic model of economic growth (gdp) for the short term, where the gdp variable is not only influenced by the foreign direct investment (fdi), foreign debt, bank credit and the labor force but also influenced by variable error term et. coefficient et appears here significant value to be placed in the model as a short-term correction in order to achieve long-term balance. the smaller the value of et, the faster the process of correction to the long-term equilibrium. therefore, the ecm variable et is often said to be a factor as well as inaction, which has a value less than zero, et < 0. in this model, the value of the coefficient et reached -0.604796, which indicates that the value of the gross domestic product (gdp) is above long-term value. so that needs to be corrected each year by -0.604796 to achieve long-term balance. ect value or e (-2) -0.604796 significant at the 5 percent level indicates that the resulting model is valid. the estimation results of the short-term equation shows r-square value of 0.827312, meaning that 82.73 percent of the economic growth model can be explained by variable changes in fdi, foreign debt, bank credit and the labor force in the previous year period. while the rest of 17.27 percent is explained by other variables outside the model. the results of the short-term equation show the value of the f statistic is 20.12127 with a probability value 0.0. this value is smaller than 1 percent significance level so that it can be concluded that together there is significant influence between independent variables as a whole is made up of foreign direct investment, foreign debt, bank credit and the labor force to the dependent variable gross domestic product. foreign direct investment (fdi) in the short-term have positive effect on economic growth and is symbolized by gross domestic product (gdp) with a significance level of 5 percent with a coefficient of 0.026601. the result of this coefficient is almost the same as in the estimation of the long-term results, but has a higher level of significance. for the long-term estimate is only significant at the 10 percent level. this means that there is a tendency that fdi has more affect to economic growth in the short term. foreign debt in the short-term has a negative effect on economic growth symbolized by gross domestic product (gdp) with a significance level of 1 percent with a coefficient -0.140683. the results of this coefficient are equal to the estimation results in the long run, both in the level of significance and coefficient. this means that both the long-term and shortterm foreign debt has the same effect. bank credits in the short-term have a positive effect on economic growth symbolized by the gross domestic product (gdp) with a significance level of 1 percent with a coefficient 0.149893. the results of this coefficient are larger than the estimation results in the long term, but have the same significance level. this means that there is a tendency that bank credit more affects economic growth in the short term. the labor force in the short-term have a positive effect on economic growth symbolized by the gross domestic product (gdp) with a significance level of 5 percent with a coefficient of 0.840824. the result of this coefficient is higher than estimated in the long term, but at the lower level of significance. this means that there is a tendency that the labor force has more have effects in the long-term over economic growth. conclusion based on the test results and analysis on the effects of foreign direct investment (fdi), foreign debt, bank credit and labor force on economic growth in indonesia in the long term and short term it can be concluded that: 1) foreign direct investment (fdi) in the long-term has a positive effect on economic growth with a coefficient of 0.027 significant at the 10 percent level. while in the short-term fdi also has a positive effect on economic growth with the same coefficient of 0.027 and a significant level increased to 5 percent, meaning there is tendency fdi has more effect on the short term; 2) foreign debt in the long term and short term has the same effect, that is a negative effect on economic growth in indonesia with a coefficient of -0.14 significant at the 1 percent level. this means that there is no change in the behavior both in the long and short term; 3) banking credit in the long-term has a positive effect on jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015: 1-13 12 economic growth in indonesia with 1.46 coefficient significant at one percent level, while the short-term bank lending also has a positive effect on economic growth with a coefficient of 0.15 significant at the one percent level. this means that bank credit is more influential in the long term; 4) the labor force in the long-term has a positive effect on economic growth in indonesia with a coefficient of 0.17 a significant at the one percent level. while in the short term there is also a positive effect on economic growth with a coefficient 0.84 and significantly decreased to 5 percent level. this means that there is a tendency that the labor force is more influential in the long run. to be able to enhance the growth of investment in indonesia, the government should be able to seek a favorable investment climate, economic stability, improve the security of the state and the proper regulation so that investors, both foreign and domestic, can feel safe and keen to invest their capital so the result can increase economic growth. in terms of fdi, the government should be able to weigh the benefits of both short-term and long-term investment by foreigners. as well as more selective in choosing foreign companies to invest in indonesia that gives more benefit. the development foreign debt must be considered in order to remain in the normal position and the favorable economic development does not increase the burden of the indonesian economy. for long-term debt can be detrimental to the economy because the risk is greater. the need for reevaluation of debt is undertaken in order to provide benefits rather than to the detriment of the country. indonesia's economy is still vulnerable to outside influences, so the value of the exchange rate is still not stable to a great cause and should be considered by the government in taking foreign debt. using mudharabah and musyarakah skim (profit loss sharing) to increase basis for economic development that will encourage the real sector, and in turn will reduce national dependence on foreign fund (foreign debt and fdi). bank credit should be noted again until covers all the lines, so it can create a balanced distribution of capital between large and small. so inequality of economic growth can be avoided. it is necessary to increase the labor productivity through increased budgetary allocation to education in order to enhance the quality of the workforce, provide skills training for workers and expanding employment opportunities so that output increases may ultimately spur economic growth in indonesia. references anwar, arwiny fajriah. (2011). analisis pengaruh utang luar negeri dan penanaman modal asing terhadap produk domestik bruto di indonesia. makassar: fakultas ekonomi universitas hasanuddin diah, indira. (2011). dampak pembayaran utang luar negeri swasta pada penentuan nilai tukar dengan pendekatan moneter periode 2002-2009. jakarta: fakultas ekonomi ui. gujarati, damodar. (1999). ekonometrika dasar. jakarta: erlangga. herlina, siti desimayanti. (2011). analisis kredit perbankan pada bank umum konvensional. jakarta: fakultas ekonomi, universitas gunadarma. kamaludin, rustian. (2007). beberapa aspek pembangunan perekonomian daerah dan hubungan keuangan luar negeri. edisi kedua. jakarta: universitastrisakti. liwan, audrey dan evan lau. (2007). managing growth: the role of export, inflation and investment in three asean neighboring countries. munich personal repec archive, malaysia. mardalena, ervin. (2009). pengaruh investasi swasta dan perdagangan internasional terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di sumatera selatan. jurnal ekonomika. nachrowi, d. nachrowi. (2006). ekonometrika, untuk analisis ekonomi dan keuangan. cetakan pertama. jakarta: lembaga penerbit fe ui. rustiono, deddy. (2008). pengaruh realisasi penanaman modal asing (pma), realisasi penanaman modal dalam negeri (pmdn), angkatan kerja dan pengeluaran pemerintah terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi provinsi jawa tengah pada tahun 1985-2006. semarang: fakultas ekonomi undip. factors influencing economic growth ... (yahya muqorrobin) 13 soeparno. (2011). analisis indikator makroekonomi terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. medan: fakultas ekonomi universitas sumatera utara. syaharani, febrina rizki. (2011). pengaruh penanaman modal dalam negeri, penanaman modal asing, dan utang luar negeri terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi indonesia 1985-2009. jakarta: fakultas ekonomi dan bisnis universitas islam negeri syarif hidayatullah. tambunan, tulus. (2007). daya saing indonesia dalam menarik investasi asing. jakarta: bank indonesia. thomas, r.l. (1997). modern econometrics: an introduction. harlow: addison-wesley. todaro, michael p. (2000). pembangunan ekonomi di dunia ketiga 2, alih bahasa oleh haris minandar. jakarta: penerbit erlangga. utari, g.a diah, trinil arimurti, ina nurmalia kurniati. (2012). optimal credit growth. buletin ekonomi moneter dan perbankan. oktober 2012. www.bps.go.id www.bi.go.id www.bkpm.go.id appendix table 4. augmented dickey fuller result at2nd difference variable adf t-statistic mackinnon critical values description 1% 5% 10% gdp -6.518002 -3.711457 -2.981038 -2.629906 stasioner cre -6.021878 -3.724070 -2.986225 -2.632604 stasioner fdi -5.878951 -3.752946 -2.998064 -2.638752 stasioner ed -5.948012 -3.724070 -2.986225 -2.632604 stasioner lf -15.33638 -3.711457 -2.981038 -2.629906 stationer jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 21 nomor 1, april 2020 article type: research paper the factors affecting the composite stock price index (cspi) of indonesia stock exchange nano prawoto* and bagus ardyan putra abstract: the study examines the influence of the fed rate, inflation, dow jones index (dji), exchange rate, and world oil price on the composite stock price index (cspi) in indonesia. the method used in this study was the vector error correction model (vecm). the research showed that the influence of inflation towards the composite stock price index was negative both in the short term and long term. the influence of the exchange rate towards the composite stock price index was positive both short term and long term. the impact of oil price towards composite stock price index was positive in the short term and long term. however, both the dow jones index (dji) and the fed rate had a negative effect on the composite stock price index. the results of this analysis can be used as a reference for investor and government policymaking. keywords: the fed rate; inflation; stock price index; exchange rate; world oil price. jel classification: e43; e31; g15; f31; g31. introduction the relation between the influence of macroeconomic and capital market variables have become an interesting topic for researchers and academics. research on the capital market has been carried out with a variety of concepts. it is inseparable from the role of the capital market as a means of liaising between investors and the government or companies when investing in a country's capital market. the capital market is an indicator of the development of companies in a country, both developed and developing countries. indonesia is one of the developing countries, which uses capital markets to support national development in order to improve equity, growth, and national economic stability aimed at improving people's welfare. community participation in becoming investors through financial instruments is the aim of the government to contribute to national economic development. the development of the capital market in indonesia is quite significant, as shown in figure 1. it is shown that in terms of market capitalization value, the indonesian capital market grew significantly from the position of rp1,989 trillion in 2007 to rp7,052 trillion per 2017. meanwhile, in the affiliation: universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta. yogyakarta, indonesia. *correspondence: nanopra@umy.ac.id this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.21.1.5032 citation: prawoto, n., & putra, b. a. (2020). the factors affecting the composite stock price index (cspi) of indonesia stock exchange. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 21(1), 69-83. article history received: 13 january 2020 reviewed: 5 april 2020 15 april 2020 revised: 17 april 2020 25 april 2020 accepted: 27 april 2020 mailto:nanopra@umy.ac.id http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/7994 http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp prawoto & putra the factors affecting the composite stock price index (cspi) of indonesia stock exchange jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 70 figure 1 composite stock price index chart (ihsg) year 2007 – 2017 source: idx same period, the composite stock price index (cspi) grew 131.46 percent from 2,745.83 points in 2007 to 6,355.66 in 2017. various methods have been used by previous researchers in linking macroeconomic variables with the capital market. one of which was developed through the arbitrage pricing theory (apt) approach (ross, 1976). apt theory can explain the return of assets from several risk factors that occur, but the focus on apt is the rate of return of individuals from the stock market. in an aggregate stock market framework, any changes in certain macroeconomic variables can reflect future returns changes on the stock market. empirical studies on apt theory mostly relate macroeconomic variables with the stock market by modeling their short-term relationship with stationary assumptions at the first difference. the study by nasseh and strauss (2000) supports research on the stock market from the influence of macroeconomic variables. johansen's cointegration approach demonstrates that in the long-run, stock prices are significantly related to industrial production, business surveys of manufacturing orders, long-term and short-term interest rates, and foreign share prices. research with the cointegration approach is consistent with three thoughts. these three thoughts are: first, a stock market activity can determine long-term production. second, the stock market has a very high level of volatility compared to the underlying macroeconomic variables. third, economic activity explains more variations in stock prices over a long period. based on the theory and intuition, activities on the capital market have a relationship with activities on macroeconomic variables directly through consumption and production activities. the rate of return from stocks can be the basis for estimating future production growth because production is related to other macroeconomic variables. another alternative approach is the present value model (pvm). this model associates stock prices with expected cash flows and discount rates in the future. what needs to be considered in the pvm model is that all macroeconomic variables in the model must influence stock prices. another advantage of applying the pvm model is the focus on the 2745,83 1355,41 2534,36 3703,51 3821,99 4316,69 4274,18 5226,95 4593,01 5296,71 6355,65 1989 1076 2019 3247 3537 4128 4219 5228 4872 5753 7052 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 ihsg kapitalisasi pasar prawoto & putra the factors affecting the composite stock price index (cspi) of indonesia stock exchange jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 71 long-term relationship between stock market variables and macroeconomic variables. campbell and shiller (1988) estimated the relationship between stock prices, expected earnings, and dividends, while all variables are used in the moving average model in the long term. changes in individual stock prices are caused by demand and supply factors. variables that affect demand and supply include company performance, inflation rates, interest rates, foreign exchange rates, growth rates, or stock price indexes from other countries. an increase in the composite stock price index (cspi) does not mean that all types of shares have risen in price. the rise of cspi indicates that some shares have increased while some others have declined. a type of stock is said to have a positive correlation if a type of stock rises in price when the cspi expands, and vice versa. knowledge of changes in market index prices or stock prices is essential to estimate the risk of a type of stock on market risk (samsul, 2015). this study focuses on several questions: a) is there any longterm relationship between macroeconomic variables and the stock market (in this case using the cspi)? also, b) what is the response of the stock market (cspi) if there is turmoil in macroeconomic variables in the model? this paper reinforces previous research in several sections, such as the effect of macroeconomic variables on the stock market in indonesia and further study of how domestic macroeconomic variables can affect the stock market in indonesia. this paper also has contributed to the literature on the use of international macroeconomic variables, namely the fed rate. this variable is essential because indonesia is a developing country, and external factors determine the sensitivity of the stock market. in addition to the fed rate, the external variable also employs the variable of world oil price. this study would investigate the relationship between external and macroeconomic variables in the stock market toward indonesia (ihsg) with a time-series data approach from 2013m1 – 2017m12. the portfolio theory, known as the markowitz model, proposed by markowitz (1952), is one way to get the return at the desired level with the minimum risk. in reducing or minimizing risk, it can be done in investing using diversification, by forming a portfolio or investing funds in several assets with a certain amount of funds. in-stock selection, it is necessary to observe by sector, after grouping the sectors, then selecting the issuers of shares to be invested. this selection is crucial because it must know the advantages of each sector so that it can estimate the price movement of shares (samsul, 2015). efficient capital markets are capital markets that explain the price of shares and can reflect existing information. under these conditions, investors cannot profit from the sale of shares because every investor gets the same information. the capital market can be said to be efficient when information can be a picture of the price of the stock, which will make investors get the expected standard return. information obtained by investors in advance will be meaningless because the price will automatically adjust to that information (fama, 1970). ratanapakorn and sharma (2007) applied the cointegration method and the vector error correction model (vecm) for monthly data in the us. their research stated that there was prawoto & putra the factors affecting the composite stock price index (cspi) of indonesia stock exchange jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 72 a positive relationship between the money supply, industrial production, inflation, exchange rates, and short-term interest rates, but negatively related to long-term interest rates. the researcher also revealed that the us stock market was inefficient. bhuiyan and chowdhury (2019) used monthly data from 2000 2018 on us and canadian stock market data. the data stated that there was a stable long-term relationship between macroeconomic variables (industrial production, money supply, long-term interest rates on sectors listed on the stock market) with the stock market in the us and canada. their research employed cointegration and vecm methods. in the study by humpe and macmillan (2009) on the us stock market, the consumer price index and long-term interest rates had a negative relationship. still, industrial production and the money supply had a positive relationship where the money supply was not statistically significant. stock markets in japan had a negative correlation with the money supply and favorable to industrial production. the researcher also stated that the consumer price index was indirectly negatively related to stock prices caused by the effects of the industrial output. as explained in the introduction, the researcher has constructed a model between macroeconomic variables and the stock market. campbell and ammer (1993) used the var model in its analysis and stated that there was a simultaneous interaction between the stock markets and bonds. in his research, it also indicated that interest rates were not the primary driver in determining the rate of return of shares. previous researchers mentioned before used lag in the model. the use of lag in the model is to avoid spurious regression and data problems at the unit root. in addition to lag, some researchers applied cointegration methods to test economic theories, such as the present value model. the study by campbell and shiller (1988) examined the current value model that links the stock price p, to dividends, d: 𝑃𝑡 = ∑ 𝛽 𝑖 𝐸𝑡 𝐷𝑡+1 ∞ 𝑖=1 β is the constant of the discount factor. by using engle-granger cointegration with lagged differences, then h0, which states there is no cointegration can be rejected at the 10% at the level. the application of the lag and cointegration methods is essential to get consistent results (for time series data), avoiding spurious regression, and avoiding root unit problems in the data. also, it is to explore further the sensitivity of the stock market in indonesia and the factors that influence it from domestic and international macroeconomic variables and uses the latest data to examine post-crisis that occurred in 2007-2008. research method this study used monthly data for all dependent variables and independent variables. the data period used was from 2013: 01 to 2017: 12. the focus of the study was post-crisis in 2008. the independent variables used were domestic and international macroeconomic prawoto & putra the factors affecting the composite stock price index (cspi) of indonesia stock exchange jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 73 table 1 data and data source no variables source 1. composite stock price index (cspi) bei annual statistics report 2. the fed rate federal reserve bank of st. louis 3. inflation central bureau of statistics 4. index dow jones financial services authority 5. rupiah exchange rate against us dollar bank indonesia annual report 6. world oil prices (west texas intermediate) world bank description: all data uses monthly data from 2013: 01 2017: 12. variables. furthermore, the international macroeconomic variables employed were the american interest rate (the fed rate) and world oil prices. domestic macroeconomic variables used inflation, exchange rate, and dow jones index variables. the dependent variable in this study utilized the composite stock price index (cspi). cspi is one of the indices used by the indonesia stock exchange (bei). this indicator covers all shares listed on the bei. method in this study, we used the vector error correction model (vecm) as an analytical tool. the stages that should be carried out in the var/vecm analysis were as follows (basuki & prawoto, 2016). a. stationarity test the initial step in analyzing time series data was the stationarity test. estimation of nonstationary time series data would cause inconsistencies in the results of regression or false regression. time series data are generally stochastic (have non-stationary trends/these data have unit roots). if the data has a unit root, then the value will tend to fluctuate not around its average value, making it difficult to estimate the model. the method used to test the stationarity problem was the unit root test. the unit root test used the augmented dickey-fuller (adf) approach. the basic idea of a stationary test with a unit root test can be explained through the following model: ∆𝑌𝑡 = ∝ + 𝛿𝑡 + 𝜃𝑌𝑡−1 + ∑ 𝜆𝑖 ∆𝑌𝑡−1 + 𝑡 𝑃 𝑖=1 ∆ is difference operator, y is the observed variable, 𝛿𝑡 represents a period, p is the length of lag, and 𝑡 is the error term. the determination of lag in the data stationarity test employed the akaike information criteria (aic). to determine which data were stationary and which were non-stationary, it compared the adf statistical value with the critical value of the statistical distribution t. the adf statistical value is indicated by the value of the statistical t coefficient ϕ yt-1. if the absolute value of the adf statistic is higher than the critical value, it suggests that the data are stationary. however, if the opposite occurs, the data are not stationary. prawoto & putra the factors affecting the composite stock price index (cspi) of indonesia stock exchange jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 74 b. var vector auto-regressive (var) applied to capture interdependence on all variables. var is a model with more than one dynamic variable (stock & watson, 2001). var model also applies lag to each variable used. var model in this study is written as follows: ∆𝐼𝐻𝑆𝐺𝑡 = ∝0+ ∑ 𝛽1𝑖 ∆𝐼𝐻𝑆𝐺𝑡 −1 + ∑ 𝛽2𝑖∆𝐹𝑅𝑡−1 𝑃 𝑖 =1 𝑃 𝑖 =1 + ∑ 𝛽3𝑖∆𝐼𝑁𝐹𝑡−1 + ∑ 𝛽4𝑖∆𝐷𝐽𝐼𝑡 −1 + ∑ 𝛽5𝑖∆𝐾𝑈𝑅𝑆𝑡−1 + ∑ 𝛽6𝑖∆𝑊𝑇𝐼𝑡−1 + 𝑡 𝑃 𝑖 =1 𝑃 𝑖 =1 𝑃 𝑖 =1 𝑃 𝑖 =1 ∆𝐹𝑅𝑡 = 𝛾0 + ∑ 𝛾1𝑖 ∆𝐼𝐻𝑆𝐺𝑡 −1 + ∑ 𝛾2𝑖 ∆𝐹𝑅𝑡 −1 𝑃 𝑖 =1 𝑃 𝑖 =1 + ∑ 𝛾3𝑖∆𝐼𝑁𝐹𝑡−1 + ∑ 𝛾4𝑖∆𝐷𝐽𝐼𝑡 −1 + ∑ 𝛾5𝑖 ∆𝐾𝑈𝑅𝑆𝑡−1 + ∑ 𝛾6𝑖 ∆𝑊𝑇𝐼𝑡−1 + 𝑡 𝑃 𝑖=1 𝑃 𝑖 =1 𝑃 𝑖 =1 𝑃 𝑖 =1 ∆𝐼𝑁𝐹𝑡 = 𝜃0 + ∑ 𝜃1𝑖 ∆𝐼𝐻𝑆𝐺𝑡 −1 + ∑ 𝜃2𝑖 ∆𝐹𝑅𝑡 −1 𝑃 𝑖=1 𝑃 𝑖 =1 + ∑ 𝜃3𝑖 ∆𝐼𝑁𝐹𝑡−1 + ∑ 𝜃4𝑖 ∆𝐷𝐽𝐼𝑡 −1 + ∑ 𝜃5𝑖∆𝐾𝑈𝑅𝑆𝑡 −1 + ∑ 𝜃6𝑖 ∆𝑊𝑇𝐼𝑡−1 + 𝑡 𝑃 𝑖 =1 𝑃 𝑖 =1 𝑃 𝑖 =1 𝑃 𝑖 =1 ∆𝐷𝐽𝐼𝑡 = 𝜂0 + ∑ 𝜂1𝑖 ∆𝐼𝐻𝑆𝐺𝑡 −1 + ∑ 𝜂2𝑖∆𝐹𝑅𝑡−1 𝑃 𝑖 =1 𝑃 𝑖=1 + ∑ 𝜂3𝑖 ∆𝐼𝑁𝐹𝑡−1 + ∑ 𝜂4𝑖 ∆𝐷𝐽𝐼𝑡 −1 + ∑ 𝜂5𝑖∆𝐾𝑈𝑅𝑆𝑡 −1 + ∑ 𝜂6𝑖∆𝑊𝑇𝐼𝑡−1 + 𝑡 𝑃 𝑖 =1 𝑃 𝑖 =1 𝑃 𝑖=1 𝑃 𝑖 =1 ∆𝐾𝑈𝑅𝑆𝑡 = 𝜗0 + ∑ 𝜗1𝑖∆𝐼𝐻𝑆𝐺𝑡 −1 + ∑ 𝜗2𝑖∆𝐹𝑅𝑡 −1 𝑃 𝑖 =1 𝑃 𝑖 =1 + ∑ 𝜗3𝑖 ∆𝐼𝑁𝐹𝑡−1 + ∑ 𝜗4𝑖 ∆𝐷𝐽𝐼𝑡−1 + ∑ 𝜗5𝑖 ∆𝐾𝑈𝑅𝑆𝑡−1 + ∑ 𝜗6𝑖 ∆𝑊𝑇𝐼𝑡−1 + 𝑡 𝑃 𝑖=1 𝑃 𝑖 =1 𝑃 𝑖 =1 𝑃 𝑖=1 ∆𝑊𝑇𝐼𝑡 = 𝛿0 + ∑ 𝛿1𝑖∆𝐼𝐻𝑆𝐺𝑡−1 + ∑ 𝛿2𝑖 ∆𝐹𝑅𝑡 −1 𝑃 𝑖 =1 𝑃 𝑖 =1 + ∑ 𝛿3𝑖∆𝐼𝑁𝐹𝑡−1 + ∑ 𝛿4𝑖∆𝐷𝐽𝐼𝑡−1 + ∑ 𝛿5𝑖∆𝐾𝑈𝑅𝑆𝑡−1 + ∑ 𝛿6𝑖∆𝑊𝑇𝐼𝑡−1 + 𝑡 𝑃 𝑖 =1 𝑃 𝑖=1 𝑃 𝑖=1 𝑃 𝑖 =1 ∆𝐼𝐻𝑆𝐺𝑡 is a change in the stock index, ∆𝐹𝑅𝑡 are changes in interest rates the fed, ∆𝐼𝑁𝐹𝑡 is the change in inflation, ∆𝐷𝐽𝐼𝑡 is changes to the stock index in dow jones, ∆𝐾𝑈𝑅𝑆𝑡 are changes in the exchange rate of the rupiah against the us dollar, ∆𝑊𝑇𝐼𝑡 is changes in world oil prices, and β, γ, θ, η, ϑ, and δ is the parameter vector of each variable. c. johansen's cointegration based on engle and granger (1987), the existence of non-stationary variables causes the possibility of a long-term relationship between variables in the system. a cointegration test was conducted to determine the presence of relationships between variables, especially in the long run. if there is cointegration of the variables used in the model, it can be ensured that there is a long-term relationship between the variables. the method that could be used in testing the existence of this cointegration was the johansen cointegration method (basuki and yuliadi, 2015). the formula of johansen's cointegration is as follows: 𝛾𝑡 = 𝜈 + ∑ 𝜃𝑖 𝛾𝑡−1 + 𝑡 𝐾 𝑖=1 y is one endogenous vector variable, v is the parameter vector, and ε is the residual vector. the trace and maximum eigenvalue tests in johansen's cointegration determine the number of cointegrated vectors. if the probability value of the trace test and the maximum eigenvalue are smaller than alpha, then the model has cointegration. d. var/vecm empirical model after the cointegration was identified, the next test was carried out using the error correction method. if there were differences in the degree of integration between test variables, the test was carried out jointly between the long-term equations with the error prawoto & putra the factors affecting the composite stock price index (cspi) of indonesia stock exchange jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 75 correction equation, after the occurrence of the cointegration variable. however, if no cointegration phenomenon was found, then the test was continued using the first difference variable. vecm is a form of var that is restricted because of the existence of data forms that are not stationary but cointegrated (basuki & prawoto 2016). vecm is often referred to as a var design for non-stationary series that has a cointegration relationship. the vecm specification restricts the long-term relationship of endogenous variables so that they converge into their cointegration relationships, while still providing the existence of short-term dynamics. the vecm model in this study is as follows: ∆𝐼𝐻𝑆𝐺𝑡 = ∝0 + ∑ 𝛽1𝑖∆𝐼𝐻𝑆𝐺𝑡 −1 + ∑ 𝛽2𝑖 ∆𝐹𝑅𝑡 −1 𝑃 𝑖 =1 𝑃 𝑖 =1 + ∑ 𝛽3𝑖∆𝐼𝑁𝐹𝑡−1 + ∑ 𝛽4𝑖∆𝐷𝐽𝐼𝑡 −1 + ∑ 𝛽5𝑖∆𝐾𝑈𝑅𝑆𝑡−1 + ∑ 𝛽6𝑖∆𝑊𝑇𝐼𝑡−1 + 𝜆𝑖𝑍𝑡−1 + 𝑡 𝑃 𝑖=1 𝑃 𝑖 =1 𝑃 𝑖 =1 𝑃 𝑖=1 ∆𝐹𝑅𝑡 = 𝛾0 + ∑ 𝛾1𝑖 ∆𝐼𝐻𝑆𝐺𝑡 −1 + ∑ 𝛾2𝑖 ∆𝐹𝑅𝑡 −1 𝑃 𝑖=1 𝑃 𝑖 =1 + ∑ 𝛾3𝑖 ∆𝐼𝑁𝐹𝑡−1 + ∑ 𝛾4𝑖∆𝐷𝐽𝐼𝑡−1 + ∑ 𝛾5𝑖 ∆𝐾𝑈𝑅𝑆𝑡−1 + ∑ 𝛾6𝑖 ∆𝑊𝑇𝐼𝑡 −1 + 𝜆𝑖𝑍𝑡−1 + 𝑡 𝑃 𝑖 =1 𝑃 𝑖 =1 𝑃 𝑖 =1 𝑃 𝑖=1 ∆𝐼𝑁𝐹𝑡 = 𝜃0 + ∑ 𝜃1𝑖 ∆𝐼𝐻𝑆𝐺𝑡 −1 + ∑ 𝜃2𝑖 ∆𝐹𝑅𝑡 −1 𝑃 𝑖 =1 𝑃 𝑖 =1 + ∑ 𝜃3𝑖 ∆𝐼𝑁𝐹𝑡−1 + ∑ 𝜃4𝑖 ∆𝐷𝐽𝐼𝑡 −1 + ∑ 𝜃5𝑖∆𝐾𝑈𝑅𝑆𝑡 −1 + ∑ 𝜃6𝑖 ∆𝑊𝑇𝐼𝑡−1 + 𝜆𝑖 𝑍𝑡−1 + 𝑡 𝑃 𝑖 =1 𝑃 𝑖 =1 𝑃 𝑖 =1 𝑃 𝑖 =1 ∆𝐷𝐽𝐼𝑡 = 𝜂0 + ∑ 𝜂1𝑖 ∆𝐼𝐻𝑆𝐺𝑡 −1 + ∑ 𝜂2𝑖∆𝐹𝑅𝑡−1 𝑃 𝑖 =1 𝑃 𝑖=1 + ∑ 𝜂3𝑖∆𝐼𝑁𝐹𝑡−1 + ∑ 𝜂4𝑖∆𝐷𝐽𝐼𝑡−1 + ∑ 𝜂5𝑖 ∆𝐾𝑈𝑅𝑆𝑡−1 + ∑ 𝜂6𝑖 ∆𝑊𝑇𝐼𝑡−1 + 𝜆𝑖 𝑍𝑡−1 + 𝑡 𝑃 𝑖=1 𝑃 𝑖=1 𝑃 𝑖 =1 𝑃 𝑖 =1 ∆𝐾𝑈𝑅𝑆𝑡 = 𝜗0 + ∑ 𝜗1𝑖 ∆𝐼𝐻𝑆𝐺𝑡−1 + ∑ 𝜗2𝑖∆𝐹𝑅𝑡 −1 𝑃 𝑖 =1 𝑃 𝑖 =1 + ∑ 𝜗3𝑖∆𝐼𝑁𝐹𝑡−1 + ∑ 𝜗4𝑖 ∆𝐷𝐽𝐼𝑡 −1 + ∑ 𝜗5𝑖∆𝐾𝑈𝑅𝑆𝑡−1 + ∑ 𝜗6𝑖∆𝑊𝑇𝐼𝑡−1 + 𝜆𝑖𝑍𝑡−1 + 𝑡 𝑃 𝑖 =1 𝑃 𝑖 =1 𝑃 𝑖=1 𝑃 𝑖 =1 ∆𝑊𝑇𝐼𝑡 = 𝛿0 + ∑ 𝛿1𝑖 ∆𝐼𝐻𝑆𝐺𝑡−1 + ∑ 𝛿2𝑖∆𝐹𝑅𝑡−1 𝑃 𝑖 =1 𝑃 𝑖 =1 + ∑ 𝛿3𝑖∆𝐼𝑁𝐹𝑡−1 + ∑ 𝛿4𝑖∆𝐷𝐽𝐼𝑡−1 + ∑ 𝛿5𝑖∆𝐾𝑈𝑅𝑆𝑡 −1 + ∑ 𝛿6𝑖∆𝑊𝑇𝐼𝑡−1 + 𝜆𝑖 𝑍𝑡−1 + 𝑡 𝑃 𝑖 =1 𝑃 𝑖=1 𝑃 𝑖=1 𝑃 𝑖 =1 ∆𝐼𝐻𝑆𝐺𝑡 are changes to the stock index, ∆𝐹𝑅𝑡 are changes in interest rates the fed, ∆𝐼𝑁𝐹𝑡 is the change in inflation, ∆𝐷𝐽𝐼𝑡 is changes to the stock index in dow jones, ∆𝐾𝑈𝑅𝑆𝑡 are changes in the exchange rate of the rupiah against the us dollar, ∆𝑊𝑇𝐼𝑡 are changes in world oil prices. all variables use natural logarithms, and formulas “p” indicates that there is a lag on each variable. the coefficient λ shows the error correction term value used to calculate the speed of correction in the short run to get its balance in the long run. β, γ, θ, η, ϑ, and δ is the parameter vectors of each variable. result and discussion stationary test from table 2, it can be seen that in the stationary level test, one of six variables was declared to be qualified, i.e., inflation (indonesian inflation). meanwhile, the other variables; log prawoto & putra the factors affecting the composite stock price index (cspi) of indonesia stock exchange jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 76 table 2 stationary test adf variable level test variable first difference test adf t statistic prob description adf t statistics prob information log cspi -0,6131 0,8593 not stationary log cspi -6,6083 0,0000 stationary the fed rate 4,00917 1,0000 not stationary the fed rate -4,2347 0,0013 stationary inflation -5,3901 0,0000 stationary inflation -7,4459 0,0000 stationary log dji 0,06046 0,9599 not stationary log dji -8,4267 0,0000 stationary log exchange rate -2,4653 0,1291 not stationary log exchange rate -6,96 0,0000 stationary log wti -1,4297 0,5616 not stationary log wti -5,683 0,0000 stationary cspi (composite stock price index), the fed rate (interest rate of the fed), log dji (dow jones industrial average), log exchange rate (value rupiah exchange rate against the dollar), and the log wti (world oil prices based on west texas intermediate) did not pass the stationary level test. furthermore, in the first difference level test, all variables were declared to pass with a level of α = 5%. cointegration test cointegration testing aims to determine the long-term relationship of each variable. it is due to the requirements of the vecm estimation, namely therein lies cointegration relationship. if there is no cointegration relationship, then the vecm estimate cannot be used. therefore, the vector auto regression (var) model should be applied. this research used johansen's cointegration test with a critical value of 0.05. based on table 3, it can be seen that at the test level of 5 percent (0.05), six rank variables had a cointegration relationship. the data could be proven from each of the trace statistics values of 145.6499, 90.66088, 52.65460, 31.01241, 16.41913, and 4.932569, which were higher than the critical value of 0.05, namely 95.75366, 69.81889, 47.85613, 29.79707, 15.49471, and 3.841466. thus, the variables used in this study had a long-term relationship (cointegration) between one another. table 3 cointegration test results (johansen’s cointegration test) unrestricted cointegration rank test (trace) hypothesized no. of ce(s) eigenvalue trace 0.05 critical prob.** statistic value none* 0.618910 1.456.499 9.575.366 0.0000 at most 1* 0.434294 9.066.088 6.981.889 0.0005 at most 2* 0.259616 5.265.460 4.785.613 0.0166 at most 3* 0.183464 3.101.241 2.979.707 0.0361 at most 4* 0.152956 1.641.913 1.549.471 0.0362 at most 5* 0.050765 4.932.569 3.841.466 0.0263 prawoto & putra the factors affecting the composite stock price index (cspi) of indonesia stock exchange jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 77 the interpretation of vecm (vector error correction model) estimation results table 4 short-term vecm (vector error correction model) estimation results variable coefficient partial t-statistic cointeq1 -0.546243 [-3.23736] d(logcspi(-1)) 0.466967 [2.17867] d(logcspi (-2)) 0.673224 [3.14910] d(inf(-1)) -0.028981 [-2.07283] d(inf(-2)) -0.028972 [-2.73010] d(inf(-3)) -0.038403 [-4.44411] d(logexchangerate(-2)) 0.883197 [2.71356] d(logwti(-2)) 0.107044 [1.96606] after conducting various pre-estimation test stages, vecm estimation would be suitable for our analysis to identify the short-term relationship and the long-term effect of the independent variables on the dependent variable. table 4 shows the short-term variables that affected the movement of the cspi in the short term. the log cspi had a significant effect on lag 1 and lag 2, and then three independent variables had a significant impact on the log cspi. the three independent variables were inf (-1, -2, -3), log exchange rate (-2), and log wti (-2). short-term estimation results showed that the log cspi variable in lag 1 and lag 2 had a positive effect and significant to the log cspi itself, i.e., 0.466 and 0.673. it means that if there were an increase in the log cspi in lag 1, it would increase the log cspi by 0.466 percent. also, if there were an increase in the log cspi in lag 2, it would increase the log cspi by 0.673 percent. short-term estimation results indicated that the inflation variable at lag 1, lag 2, and lag 3 had a negative effect on the log cspi, which was -2,072, -2.73, and 4.44. it means that if there were an increase in inflation in lag 1, it would decrease the log cspi by -0.0289 percent. if there were an increase in inflation in lag 2, it would decrease the log cspi by -0.0289 percent. then, if there were an increase in inflation in lag 3, it would reduce the log cspi by -0.0384 percent. the short-term estimation results showed that the log exchange rate variable in lag 2 had a positive effect on the log cspi, which was 0.883. thus, if there were an increase in the log exchange rate in leg 2, it would increase the log cspi by 0.883 percent. the short-term estimation results showed that the log wti variable in lag 2 had a positive effect on the log cspi, which was equal to 0.107. therefore, if there were an increase in the log wti in leg 2, it would increase the log cspi by 0.107 percent. in the regression results, it is known that fed rate did not affect the movement of the cspi in the short run. it was because of a quick response from the government in tackling the movement of the fed by raising interest rates or the bi rate; then, the market tended to ignore the movement of the fed. based on regression results, the effect of inflation on the cspi in the short term was driven by an increase in production costs, which resulted in a decrease in company profits. the decline in corporate profits caused a decline in share prices and cspi. this result supports the research of mohammad and ullah (2017), which prawoto & putra the factors affecting the composite stock price index (cspi) of indonesia stock exchange jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 78 stated that inflation had a significant negative effect on the movement of the composite stock price index. in the regression results, it is known that the dow jones index did not affect the movement of the cspi in the short term. research data showed that in the short term, the index was stable so that the movement of the dow jones index did not significantly affect the cspi. thus, the short-term movement of the dow jones index did not affect the cspi. in the regression results, it is identified that there was a short-term effect of the exchange rate on cspi. this effect was driven by the nominal of rupiah (depreciation), which caused the value of goods in indonesia to be relatively cheaper. therefore, an increase in demand for export goods by foreigners resulted in increased profits for exporting companies. then, it could increase stock prices and increased cspi, which is in line with the results of the study indicated by handiani’s research (2014). the following regression results are known that there was an influence of world oil prices on cspi in the short term; it was driven by an increase in world oil prices resulting in increasing profits of mining companies, especially oil. it resulted in an increase in the company's stock price and could cause an increase in the jakarta composite index. the same thing was also stated in a study conducted by kilian and park (2009) and witjaksono (2017), which showed that world oil prices had a positive effect on the movement of the composite stock price index. besides, the error correction term (ect) value showed significant results with a coefficient of -0.5462, which indicated that if an error occurs in the short term, it would be corrected by 1.83 months to get into equilibrium in the longterm stage. based on table 5, the fr variable in lag 1 had a negative and significant effect on the cspi log, i.e., 0.284. thus, if there were an increase in fr of one percent in the previous year, then the cspi log would decrease by 0.284 percent. the analysis showed that the partial t-statistic value of the fr variable at lag 1 was -9.37092 (probability t count <0.05). the data indicate that h0 was rejected, and h1 was accepted. in other words, the fr variable significantly affected the log cspi in the long-term. the long-term vecm estimation results showed that the inf variable at lag 1 had a negative and significant effect on the log cspi, which as equal to 0.099. therefore, if the inf variable increased one percent in the previous year, it would reduce the cspi log by 0.099 percent. the analysis showed that the partial t-statistic value of the inf variable at lag 1 was -6.01471 (probability t count <0.05), which means that h0 was rejected, and h1 was accepted. in other words, the inf variable had a significant effect on the cspi log in the long-term stage. table 5 long-term vecm (vector error correction model) estimation results variable coefficient partial t-statistic fr(-1) -0.284439 [-9.37092] inf(-1) -0.099915 [-6.01471] logdji(-1) -1.791.351 [18.1002] logexchanerate(-1) 1.252.540 [12.3100] logwti(-1) 0.163721 [8.88848] prawoto & putra the factors affecting the composite stock price index (cspi) of indonesia stock exchange jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 79 long-term vecm estimation results showed that the log dji variable in lag 1 had a negative and significant effect on log cspi, i.e., 1.791. thus, if dji log increased one percent in the previous year, it would reduce the log cspi by 1.791 percent. the analysis showed that the partial t-statistic value of the log dji variable at lag 1 was -18.1002 (probability t count <0.05). these data indicate that h0 was rejected, and h1 was accepted. in other words, the log dji variable significantly affected the log cspi in the long-term. long-term vecm estimation results showed the log exchange rate variable in lag 1 had a positive and significant effect on the log cspi, i.e., 1,252. thus, if log exchange rate increased one percent in the previous year, then the log cspi would increase by 1,252 percent. the analysis showed that the partial t-statistic value of the log exchange rate variable at lag 1 was 12.3100 (probability t count <0.05). these data indicate that h0 was rejected, and h1 was accepted. in other words, the log exchange rate variable significantly influenced the long-term log cspi. the long term vecm estimation results showed that the log wti variable in lag 1 had a positive and significant effect on the log cspi, which was equal to 0.163. hence, if the log wti increased one percent in the previous year, it would increase the log cspi by 0.163 percent. the analysis showed that the partial t-statistic value of the log wti variable at lag 1 was 8.88848 (probability t count <0.05). it means h0 was rejected, and h1 was accepted. in other words, the log wti variable significantly influenced the log cspi in the long term. furthermore, long-term vecm estimation results showed that fed rate had a long term and significant negative effect on the cspi fluctuation. the results of the analysis, which stated that the fed rate had a negative effect on the cspi, is in line with what was stated in gom's research (2015). it showed that the fr had a negative impact on the movement of the composite stock price index. the dow jones index variable, in the long term, had a negative impact on the cspi. it showed that the dow jones index and cspi had the opposite direction in the study period the impulse response function (irf) irf analysis showed the response of the cspi when the fed rate experienced a shock. as a result, the cspi response became negative from the 2nd to the 10th periods, even though in the 6th period, it declined from the negative reaction. this data explains that when interest rates from the fed experience a shock, the opposite movement, or a negative response to the cspi takes place. this response is caused by the existence of capital outflows or foreign funds coming out of the capital market so that an investor will choose to invest in more profitable instruments. irf analysis showed the response of the cspi at the time of inflation experienced a shock, resulting in the cspi response became negative from the 1st to the 10th periods. this analysis explains that when shocks occur in inflation, movement in the opposite direction or a negative response to the cspi occurs. this negative response may occur because inflation causes price increases and causes increased production costs in a company. also, it can affect the decline in company profits resulting in a decrease in the stock price of the company. prawoto & putra the factors affecting the composite stock price index (cspi) of indonesia stock exchange jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 80 irf analysis showed the cspi response when the dow jones index experienced a shock. the positive response resulted in the cspi response from the first to the tenth periods, even though in the sixth period, it experienced a small negative response. the response was positive because it was still above the horizontal line. this analysis explains that when the dow jones index experiences a shock, the same movement or positive response to the cspi occurs. this response occurs following the theory of economic integration in the financial markets, which can lead to a relationship between economic variables among countries. as a result, the variables that affect the cspi need to be known by the investors; then, investors can make the right decision. irf analysis showed the response of the cspi when the exchange rate was in shock. when the exchange rate was in shock, the cspi response became positive from the first to the tenth periods, even though the fourth period experienced a small negative response. this response was quite positive because it was still above the horizontal line. the previous explanation describes that when the exchange rate experiences a shock, there will be a positive impact on the cspi. this response occurs because the exchange rate can affect demand from abroad. this influence can cause an increase in exports in indonesia and generate higher profits for companies that export. figure 2 impulse response function prawoto & putra the factors affecting the composite stock price index (cspi) of indonesia stock exchange jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 81 irf analysis showed the response of the cspi at a time when world oil prices were in shock. when the world oil experienced a shock, the cspi response became neutral in the first period but was classified as positive until the seventh period. however, in the 8th period, it experienced a small negative response until the tenth period. in a short period, world oil prices did not significantly affect the cspi. the information mentioned before explains that when world oil prices experience a shock, the same movement or a positive impact on the cspi occurs. this response indicates that when world oil prices experience a shock, it will have an effect on industries that are still mostly using oil as their energy, and this will affect the cspi in indonesia. the vd (variance decomposition) analysis results the results of the vd (figure 6) indicate that the fed rate variable had a contribution of only up to 2.69% in explaining the cspi variable. the results of vd suggest that the inflation variable had a contribution of only up to 3.53% in explaining the cspi variable. the results of the vd showed that the dow jones index variable contributed only up to 24.04% in explaining the cspi variable. the significant contribution or influence of the dow jones index variable would be better able to define the cspi variable than other variables. the results of vd showed that the exchange rate variable had a contribution of only up to 0.30% in explaining the cspi variable. the results of vd indicate that the world oil prices had a contribution of only up to 0.71% in explaining the cspi variable. table 6 varian decomposition of log cspi period s.e log cspi fr inf log dji log exchang e rate log wti 1 0.028093 100.0000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 2 0.046658 92.20222 0.487584 2.018182 4.271592 0.301887 0.718537 3 0.067927 87.30924 0.453460 3.535437 8.198837 0.163590 0.339434 4 0.086232 83.20022 0.303571 2.474309 13.70331 0.101512 0.217080 5 0.100959 78.88783 0.231802 2.039119 18.33681 0.205729 0.298716 6 0.114253 76.07897 0.351427 1.640364 21.39912 0.186251 0.343874 7 0.124641 74.67334 1.069748 1.678403 22.12014 0.167093 0.291282 8 0.133428 73.47225 1.566907 1.685485 22.86732 0.148221 0.259822 9 0.141561 72.46852 2.108883 1.506259 23.53405 0.133392 0.248893 10 0.149162 71.49669 2.690845 1.374609 24.04708 0.120208 0.270571 conclusion the results of the regression analysis note that the influence of the fed rate on the cspi in the short term had no effect on the movement of the cspi, whereas, in the long term, the fed rate had a significant negative effect on the cspi movement. it indicates that the influence of the fed rate variable was a change in behavior, which at first, it was insignificant in the short run, but in the long run, it became significant. it showed the response of the fed rate variable on cspi tended to be slow. the results of the analysis of the effect of inflation on the cspi in the short and long term had a negative effect. it indicates that the influence of the inflation variable did not change behavior, both shortprawoto & putra the factors affecting the composite stock price index (cspi) of indonesia stock exchange jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 82 term and long-term, and its effect is consistent with the theory that inflation had a negative effect on the industry. regression results were known that the results of the analysis of the influence of the dow jones index on the cspi in the short term had no effect on the movement of the cspi, while in the long run, the dow jones index had a negative effect on the cspi. it indicates that the influence of the dow jones index was changing behavior in the short and long term. the results of the analysis of the influence of exchange rate on cspi in the short and long term had a positive effect. it indicates that the effect of exchange rate was consistent, both in the short and long term, to changes in the cspi and showed that the short-term and long-term response remained positive that when the depreciation of the rupiah pushed exports and increased industry. the regression results of the influence of world oil prices on the cspi in the short and long term had a positive effect. it indicates that the effect of world oil prices was consistent, both in the short and long term, to changes in the cspi and showed that the industry responded quickly when there were changes in oil prices. in the five independent variables, inflation, exchange rates, and world oil prices had a rapid influence on the cspi. whereas, the fed rate and dow jones index variables were slow and long-term effects. however, seen from the analysis of variance decomposition, the biggest contribution that could explain the dependent variable was the dow jones index variable and inflation. suggestion the results showed that the cspi movement was influenced by internal factors (inflation and exchange rates) and also influenced by external factors (the fed rate, dow jones index, and world oil prices). in this case, of course, the government must be consistent in maintaining the stability of the value of inflation and exchange rates. in addition, the government must be able to anticipate the influence of external factors, such as the fed rate, dow jones index, and world oil prices. the anticipation that must be done is to adjust the bi rate, fiscal incentives, and policies to reduce the high-cost economy through the 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disetujui: februari 2015 abstract: public schools in indonesia has the advantage of better student input. almost all secondary schools in the country, especially big cities limit the national test scores (formerly pure ebtanas value) primary school as a condition of entry. this paper uses data from ifls3 and ifls4 which form the polling cross section for the estimation of the effectiveness of education junior high school in indonesia. measures of effectiveness are earnings in the labor market. empirical results show that the log earnings in the labor market for graduates of public schools is higher than 13.3 percent of graduates of private secular and 30.8 percent higher than the islamic private school graduates. as for the non-islamic private school graduates although not significant, but has a positive sign or higher compared to public school graduates. these results do not involve selection bias, involving the presence of selection bias after log earnings differences between graduates of public schools with private graduates enjoyed by graduates of private higher by 51.9 percent, the difference in log earnings between graduates of public schools with graduates of islamic private higher enjoyed by the country graduate amounted to 84.5 percent, while for log income difference between public school graduates with graduates of other private higher enjoyed by other private graduates by 76.1 percent, although not significantly. keywords: public schools; private schools; private islamic schools; non-islamic religious private schools jel classification: d31, j40, o40 abstrak: sekolah negeri di indonesia memiliki keuntungan dalam input siswa yang lebih baik. hampir seluruh sekolah menengah pertama negeri khususnya di kota besar membatasi nilai ujian nasional (dahulu nilai ebtanas murni) sekolah dasar sebagai syarat masuk. paper ini menggunakan data ifls3 dan ifls4 yang membentuk polling cross section untuk estimasi efektivitas pendidikan sekolah menengah pertama di indonesia. ukuran efektivitas yang diambil adalah pendapatan di pasar tenaga kerja. hasil empiris memperlihatkan bahwa log pendapatan di pasar tenaga kerja bagi lulusan sekolah negeri lebih tinggi 13,3 persen dibandingkan lulusan swasta sekuler dan 30,8 persen lebih tinggi dibandingkan lulusan sekolah swasta islam. sementara untuk lulusan sekolah swasta non islam meskipun tidak signifikan tetapi memiliki tanda positif atau lebih tinggi dibandingkan lulusan sekolah negeri. hasil tersebut belum melibatkan selection bias, setelah melibatkan adanya selection bias perbedaan log pendapatan antara lulusan sekolah negeri dengan lulusan swasta dinikmati lebih tinggi oleh lulusan swasta sebesar 51,9 persen, perbedaan log pendapatan antara lulusan sekolah negeri dengan lulusan swasta islam dinikmati lebih tinggi oleh lulusan negeri sebesar 84,5 persen, sementara untuk perbedaan log pendapatan antara lulusan sekolah negeri dengan lulusan swasta lain dinikmati lebih tinggi oleh lulusan swasta lain sebesar 76,1 persen walau tidak signifikan. kata kunci: sekolah umum; sekolah swasta; sekolah swasta islam; sekolah swasta non-islam klasifikasi jel: d31, j40, o40 efektivitas tipe-tipe sekolah. ..(nenny hendajany) 85 pendahuluan pendidikan formal di indonesia sebagian besar disediakan oleh pemerintah baik yang ditangani langsung oleh kementerian pendidikan maupunoleh kementerian agama. pendidikan termasuk bidang layanan sosial yang sama dengan bidang sosial lain seperti kesehatan. penyediaan bidang layanan sosial pada dasarnya merupakan tugas dari pemerintah. dengan keterbatasan dana umumnya pemerintah hanya memberi pelayanan pada masyarakat dengan standar minimal. permintaan akan layanan dan fasilitas pendidikan yang lebih baik umumnya disediakan oleh lembaga sosial non pemerintah yang kerap disebut dengan lembaga atau yayasan swasta. hal inilah yang melatarbelakangi berdirinya lembaga atau yayasan swasta, sehingga seharusnya lembaga atau yayasan swasta dengan fasilitas yang lebih baik memberikan efektifitas yang lebih baik pada outcomenya. namun di bidang pendidikan khususnya di indonesia banyak bukti empiris yang menyatakan bahwa sekolah negeri lebih unggul dibandingkan sekolah swasta karena salah satu keuntungannya adalah memperoleh input yang lebih baik (newhouse dan beegle, 2006). meskipun rasio antara guru dan murid di sekolah negeri lebih kecil dibandingkan dengan sekolah swasta namun hasil empiris dari newhouse dan beegle (2006) menyatakan bahwa nilai ujian akhir siswa sekolah negeri lebih tinggi 0,17 sampai 0,3 standar deviasi dibandingkan dengan siswa yang berada di sekolah swasta. bukti ini memperlihatkan dukungan atas kepercayaan atau persepsi masyarakat di indonesia bahwa kualitas pendidikan sekolah negeri lebih baik dibandingkan dengan sekolah swasta, berbeda dengan kepercayaan dan persepsi di negara lain terutama amerika serikat di mana kualitas sekolah swasta lebih baik dari sekolah negeri (lihat bukti mengenai kinerja akademik dari cox dan jimenez (1991), evans dan schwab (1995), dan neal (1997)). hasil empiris yang berbeda diperlihatkan oleh bedi dan garg (2000) yang menggunakan data ifls 1993, mereka menemukan bahwa lulusan sekolah smp swasta lebih baik di pasar tenaga kerja. ada pula james, dkk (1996) yang melakukan penelitian di indonesia dengan menggunakan nilai ujian akhir sd sebagai indikator efektifitas manajemen sekolah, mereka menemukan bahwa sd swasta memiliki biaya per siswa lebih kecil. hasil empiris kedua penelitian tersebut berbeda dengan kepercayaan dan persepsi pada umumnya di masyarakat indonesia bahwa sekolah negeri lebih unggul dibandingkan sekolah swasta dalam outcomenya. fahmi (2009a) mencoba mereplikasi data yang sama pada bedi dan garg (2000) dengan metode yang sama tetapi menghasilkan kesimpulan yang berbeda. ia menyimpulkan bahwa pendapatan lulusan sekolah negeri lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan lulusan swasta. fahmi (2009b) dengan menggunakan data ifls3 tahun 2000 menemukan bahwa lulusan sekolah negeri 25 persen lebih tinggi dari swasta umum, 35,2 persen lebih tinggi dari sekolah islam, tetapi lulusan sekolah swasta kristen menikmati 0,28 persen lebih tinggi dari sekolah negeri. hasil yang berbeda ini menarik penulis untuk mengetahui dampak dari tipe sekolah yang dipilih saat sekolah menengah pertama terhadap pendapatan dengan menggunakan data ifls yang dibuat dalam polling cross section dari ifls3 dan ifls4 dengan harapan mengurangi sedikit kemungkinan terjadinya bias. selain itu penulis menambahkan dua variabel kontrol yaitu pengalaman kerja dan ukuran perusahaan tempat responden bekerja. berdasarkan hasil empiris dari medoff, j. l. dan abraham, k. g., (1980) yang menyimpulkan bahwa terdapat hubungan positif yang kuat antara pengalaman kerja dan pendapatan relatif. pengalaman kerja seseorang menunjukkan tingkat pengetahuan dan pemahamannya untuk menjalankan tugas-tugas yang dihadapi. sementara ukuran perusahaan mempengaruhi penghasilan seseorang secara teori masih ambigu, seperti yang dikutip pada kim, y., liu, c dan rhee, s. g. (2003) terdapat faktor yang menyebabkan berdampak positif yaitu perusahaan besar dikaitkan dengan sistem kontrol internal, memiliki auditor yang handal, mempunyai biaya reputasi, sementara yang kontrasnya menyebutkan perusahaan besar memiliki tekanan yang lebih dibanding perusahaan kecil dan memiliki daya tawar yang lebih besar. ukuran efektifitas dari tipe sekolah yang digunakan penulis adalah pendapatan di pasar jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015: 83-98 86 tenaga kerja. banyak ekonom meyakini bahwa pendapatan mencerminkan nilai pasar dari keterampilan dan pengetahuan yang diperoleh di sekolah (card dan krueger; 1994). pendidikan adalah salah satu investasi sumber daya manusia yang penting. untuk memperoleh pekerjaan yang layak dan upah yang diharapkan setiap orang membutuhkan keterampilan yang memadai yang diperoleh melalui pendidikan. skemapaper ini dimulai dengan pendahuluan, selanjutnya bagian dua menginformasikan mengenai sekolah formal dan tipe sekolah di indonesia. bagian tiga menjelaskan model dan strategi empiris. bagian empat menyajikan data yang digunakan. bagian lima menunjukkan hasil empiris dan terakhir bagian enam kesimpulan. sekolah formal dan tipe sekolah di indonesia. berdasarkan undang-undang pendidikan no 20/2003 tentang sistem pendidikan nasional (sisdiknas) pendidikan dasar merupakan jenjang pendidikan untuk melandasi pendidikan menengah. pendidikan dasar terdiri dari sekolah dasar (sd) dan madrasah ibtidaiyah (mi) atau bentuk lain yang sederajat, serta sekolah menengah pertama (smp) dan madrasah tsanawiyah (mts) atau bentuk lain yang sederajat. pendidikan dasar menempuh waktu 9 tahun di mana 6 tahun diselenggarakan di tingkat sd/mi dan 3 tahun di tingkat smp/ mts. pencapaian keberhasilan pendidikan dasar di indonesia secara kuantitas dapat dilihat dari beberapa indikator di antaranya angka partisipasi murni (apm), angka partisipasi kasar (apk), angka drop out (do) dan angka melanjutkan ke jenjang smp/mts. tabel 1 memperlihatkan apk dan apm untuk pendidikan dasar di indonesia. di tahun 2009 masih ada 4,77 persen yang belum berpartisipasi di pendidikan sekolah dasar dan 26,48 persen yang belum berpartisipasi di pendidikan sekolah menengah pertama. pada tingkat pendidikan dasar angka partisipasi tidak mengkhawatirkan karena diperkirakan adanya program pembangunan sd inpres di seluruh desa di indonesia pada tahun 1974/1975 telah berhasil menarik hampir 100 persen anak-anak usia 7–12 tahun untuk bersekolah. berbeda hal dengan pendidikan sekolah menengah pertama, di mana angka partisipasi masih jauh dari 100 persen, sehingga wajib belajar 9 tahun yang dicanangkan pemerintah masih jauh dari harapan. hal ini disebabkan infrastruktur yang belum tersedia di setiap desa untuk tingkat sekolah menengah pertama, sehingga siswa tidak dapat melanjutkan sekolah menengah pertama walaupun sudah tidak dibebani biaya sekolah dengan adanya program bos (bantuan operasional siswa). krisis ekonomi yang melanda indonesia sejak pertengahan tahun 1997 sampai akhir 1998 tidak secara nyata berdampak pada angka partisipasi dan angka putus sekolah di tingkat pendidikan dasar. strauss dkk (2004) menuliskan bahwa tingkat enrollment untuk semua tingkatan pendidikan tidak berubah antara tahun 1997 dan 2000. berdasarkan sumber dana pembiayaan sekolah yang ada di indonesia, sekolah dibedakan atas negeri dan swasta, sementara berdasarkan isi kurikulum maka sekolah menengah pertama dibagi kedalam sekolah umum dan sekolah keagamaan, sehingga tipe sekolah yang ada adalah sekolah negeri umum, sekolah negeri madrasah, sekolah swasta umum, sekolah swasta keagamaan islam, sekolah swasta keagamaan kristen, sekolah keagamaan katolik serta sekolah keagamaan hindu-budha. pendidikan di sekolah negeri baik pembiayaan, aturan dan standar ditentukan oleh pemerintah. kebanyakan dari sekolah negeri merupakan tabel 1. angka partisipasi kasar dan angka partisipasi murni pendidikan dasar 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 apk sd 113,63 114,06 114,27 115,53 116,56 116,77 smp 81,22 85,22 88,68 92,52 96,18 98,11 apm sd 94,12 94,3 94,48 94,9 95,14 95,23 smp 58,06 62,06 66,01 72,02 73,62 74,52 sumber: kemendiknas, http://www.pdsp.kemdiknas.go.id, diolah efektivitas tipe-tipe sekolah. ..(nenny hendajany) 87 sekolah sekuler (umum) sementara sekolah swasta kebanyakan merupakan sekolah keagamaan baik islam, kristen, maupun katolik. dalam paper ini karena ketersediaan data yang terbatas maka tipe sekolah yang ada hanya dikelompokkan menjadi empat yaitu sekolah negeri (negeri umum dan madrasah negeri), swasta sekuler, swasta islam, dan swasta non islam. sistem pendidikan umum diatur oleh kementerian pendidikan dan kebudayaan sementara sistem pendidikan keagamaan khususnya islam yang dikenal dengan madrasah diatur oleh kementerian agama. sekolah madrasah umumnya berisikan 40 persen kurikulum keagamaan dan 60 persen kurikulum sesuai dengan sekolah umum yang diatur oleh menteri pendidikan dan kebudayaan. metode penelitian model dan strategi empiris (1) pemilihan sekolah. orang tua yang memiliki anak lulusan sekolah dasar menghadapi pilihan sekolah menengah pertama dengan empat tipe pilihan sekolah. proses pengambilan keputusan ini sebagai sesuatu pilihan orang tua saat mengevaluasi manfaat khususnya kemungkinan pendapatan masa depan dan biaya untuk memasuki setiap pilihan tipe sekolah. di lain pihak sekolah juga memiliki aturan atau kriteria tertentu sebagai syarat masuk. oleh karenanya, pemilihan sekolah dipandang sebagai sebuah proses yang dicapai melalui interaksi pilihan orang tua dan seleksi kriteria yang ditetapkan oleh sekolah. mekanisme pengambilan keputusan berdasarkan pilihan orang tua di mana pendapatan masa depan diparameterisasi dalam proses pertumbuhan geometrik. rata-rata pendapatan individu i yang memilih tipe sekolah j adalah: 0 0 ∞ 1) di mana , dan , 2) adalah pendapatan individu i pada waktu t jika tipe sekolah j yang dipilih. merupakan pendapatan inisial individu i jika tipe sekolah j yang dipilih, adalah tingkat pertumbuhan pendapatan individu i jika tipe sekolah j yang dipilih, merupakan waktu masuk kedalam pasar tenaga kerja dan merupakan pengalaman kerja. merupakan variabel yang teramati (observe) dan merupakan variabel yang tidak teramati (unobserve). sesuai model bedi dan garg (2000) selain biaya langsung seperti biaya transportasi, siswa juga menghadapi biaya masuk. pada umumnya sekolah negeri dan beberapa sekolah swasta elit menyaratkan nilai ujian nasional (nilai ebtanas murni/nem) tertentu. seleksi ini merupakan sebuah jenis seleksi masuk bukan berupa harga. seleksi bukan harga lainnya adalah agama. model persamaan biaya ini adalah: , 3) di mana adalah variabel vektor dari ability, latar belakang keluarga dan regional, dan adalah komponen unobserved. persamaan pendapatan dan biaya di atas perlu dibuat dalam net present value, dengan asumsi waktu tak terbatas, net present value berkaitan dengan tiap sekolah yang dipilihnya adalah:       i m r t ij ij ij t n y t e dt c         i ij r t ij i ij y e c r g 4) substitusikan persamaan (2) dan (3) ke dalam (4) dan lakukan pendekatan taylor series menghasilkan bentuk linier dari persamaan net present value:   ijij i j n n x εβ 5) di mana , , jβ adalah koefisien vektor dan adalah error term. orang tua dalam memilih sekolah dapat dinyatakan sebagai: jika dan hanya jika max , 1,…, 6) jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015: 83-98 88 di mana adalah indikator sekolah. parameter pada persamaan (5) dan peluang individu i masuk sekolah tipe j diperoleh dari estimasi model pilihan diskrit multinomial.   1     i j i j x ij i j x k e p p s j e β β 7) (2) pendapatan dan dekomposisi pendapatan. paper ini fokus pada persamaan upah standar yang berbentuk: 0 1    ij j j ij ijlny β β x 8) di mana adalah natural log dari pendapatan per tahun individu i yang belajar pada sekolah menengah pertama tipe j. merupakan variabel yang teramati seperti karakteristik individu, ability, latar belakang keluarga, pengalaman kerja, dummy ukuran perusahaan dan dummy regional. merupakan vektor koefisien dari variabel yang teramati dan merupakan error term yang diasumsikan berdistribusi normal dengan rata-rata nol dan varians positif. rata-rata pendapatan dengan kondisi pilihan sekolah: | , | 9) rentan terhadap bias seleksi karena | 0 dan karenanya ols yang dihasilkan persamaan (8) tidak konsisten. seperti yang digambarkan lee (1983), estimasi persamaan pendapatan yang konsisten dapat diperoleh dan seleksi bias dapat dikontrol dengan cara menggunakan prosedur dua tahap. tahap pertama mengestimasi persamaan (7) dengan multinomial logit model untuk memprediksi pilihan tipe sekolah. hasil multinomial logit merupakan bentuk koreksi selektivitas yang pada tahap kedua hasil ini dimasukkan ke dalam persamaan (8), sehingga persamaannya menjadi: 0 1   ij j j ij j ij ijlny β β x ρ λ υ 10) di mana merupakan bentuk koreksi selektivitas, merupakan covariance antara error terms dalam persamaan pendapatan dan sekolah, dan adalah gangguan dengan rata-rata nol. tanda positif pada koefisien koreksi selektivitas menandakan bahwa variabelunobserve yang mempengaruhi pilihan tipe sekolah berkorelasi positif dengan variabel unobserve yang menentukan pendapatan. estimasi perbedaan pendapatan antara lulusan sekolah negeri dan swasta menggunakan dekomposisi pendapatan blinder-oaxaca. dekomposisi blinder-oaxaca awalnya digunakan untuk memeriksa perbedaan karakteristik antara pria dan wanita seperti yang diteliti oleh oaxaca (1973). perbedaan rata-rata pendapatan adalah:    ˆ ˆ       j k j k j klny lny x x dβ i d β    ˆ ˆ     j k j kβ β x i d x d 11) di mana jlny dan klny merupakan rata-rata log pendapatan tipe sekolah j (negeri) dan tipe sekolah k (swasta). jx dan kx merupakan vektor variabel untuk lulusan negeri dan swasta sedangkan ˆ jβ dan ˆ kβ merupakan estimasi koefisien. i merupakan matriks identitas dan d merupakan matriks diagonal untuk pembobotan. reimers (1983), mengusulkan bahwa nilai d=(0,5)i untuk dekomposisi perbedaan pendapatan, sehingga persamaan (11) menjadi:    0 ˆ ˆ, 5      j k j k j klny lny x x β β    0, 5ˆ ˆ    j k j kβ β x x 12) selanjutnya jika bias seleksi dimunculkan dalam model maka dekomposisi pendapatan perlu mempertimbangkan selisih bias seleksi, sehingga persamaan (12) menjadi:    0 ˆ ˆ, 5      j k j k j klny lny x x β β    0, 5ˆ ˆ     j k j kβ β x x ˆ ˆ .j j k kρ λ ρ λ 13) efektivitas tipe-tipe sekolah. ..(nenny hendajany) 89 dekomposisi blinder-oaxaca menjelaskan gap log pendapatan dalam tiga bagian: pertama, dikarenakan perbedaan dalam karakteristik rata-rata kelompok tipe sekolah yang diikuti, dua dikarenakan perbedaan dalam parameter fungsi pendapatan, dan tiga, disebabkan perbedaan selektivitas bias. data. data yang digunakan adalah data ifls (indonesian family life survey) mengenai ekonomi dan kesehatan. ifls diproduksi oleh rand yang telah mempublikasikan dalam empat gelombang yaitu ifls1 tahun 1993, ifls2 tahun 1997, ifls3 tahun 2000 dan ifls4 tahun 2007. sampling ifls pertama tahun 1993 dibentuk pada tingkat provinsi yang secara random dipilih sampel dalam provinsi, dengan alasan efektifitas biaya dipilih 13 provinsi dari 26 provinsi yang berada pada pulau jawa, sumatera, bali, ntt, kalimantan, dan sulawesi. 13 provinsi tersebut telah mencakup 83 persen dari populasi di indonesia. penulis menggunakan pooling cross section untuk dua gelombang ifls terakhir dengan alasan kondisi perekonomian di indonesia saat itu relatif stabil. data dibatasi oleh orang dewasa 15 tahun ke atas yang telah memperoleh penghasilan dan berhenti sekolah. selain itu data responden dibatasi hanya yang melaporkan tipe sekolah yang diikuti saat sekolah menengah pertama. dari ifls 2000 diperoleh 2,277 responden dan dari ifls 2007 diperoleh 2,162 responden, sehingga total sampel yang digunakan sebanyak 4,439 responden. ringkasan statistik untuk seluruh sampel data disajikan pada tabel 2 (lampiran) yang memperlihatkan bahwa responden mempunyai rata-rata log natural pendapatan sebesar 15.437 dan usia rata-rata 28,2 tahun. sekitar 65,3 persenmerupakan lulusan sekolah menengah pertama yang berasal dari sekolah negeri, 16,5 persen dari sekolah swasta sekuler, 15,1 persen dari sekolah swasta islam dan 3,1 persen dari sekolah swasta lain (non islam). pendidikan terakhir responden sekitar 31,1 persen setingkat smp, 48,1 persen setingkat sma dan 20,9 persen setingkat pt. 71,5 persen responden termasuk golongan pria dan sisanya 28,5 persen wanita. keluarga responden 88,1 persen beragama islam, sisanya 11,9 persen memeluk agama kristen, katolik, hindu, budha, dan agama lainnya. tempat tinggal responden menyebar dengan tiga tempat terbanyak berada di jawa barat, jakarta, dan jawa timur masing-masing secara berurutan 18,4 persen, 13,3 persen dan 12,2 persen. responden yang bekerja di perusahaan sangat kecil sebesar 43 persen, perusahaan kecil sebesar 24,8 persen, perusahaan menengah 19,1 persen dan perusahaan besar 13,1 persen. tabel 3 (lampiran) menyajikan ringkasan statistik untuk masing-masing kelompok tipe sekolah. hasilnya memperlihatkan bahwa ratarata log natural pendapatan lulusan sekolah negeri, swasta, swasta islam dan swasta lain secara berurutan 15.513, 15.371, 15.146 dan 15.612. nilai rata-rata paling tinggi untuk kelompok swasta lain (15.612) dan paling rendah untuk kelompok swasta islam (15.146), sebaran variasi terbesar berada pada kelompok swasta lain (1.333/15.612 x 100%= 8,59%) dan terendah pada kelompok swasta sekuler (7,77%). rata-rata usia responden untuk kelompok negeri 28,17 tahun, kelompok swasta sekuler 28,75 tahun, kelompok swasta islam 27,02 tahun, dan kelompok swasta non islam 31,65 tahun. jika dikaitkan dengan pekerjaan, lulusan swasta non islam secara rata-rata memiliki umur yang lebih tinggi yang dikaitkan dengan memiliki pengalaman bekerja yang lebih tinggi juga, sehingga umur yang tinggi berpotensi mendapat pendapatan yang lebih tinggi pula. karena kemungkinan di suatu saat umur seseorang menyebabkan tidak dapat lagi bekerja lebih maka perlu memasukkan variabel umur kuadrat untuk melengkapinya. pada kelompok sekolah negeri pendidikan tertinggi smp sebesar 27,4 persen, sma 49,6 persen dan pt 23 persen. kelompok sekolah swasta pendidikan tertinggi smp sebesar 32 persen, sma 52,8 persen dan pt 15,2 persen. kelompok sekolah swasta islam pendidikan tertinggi responden smp sebesar 48,1 persen, sma 37,1 persen dan pt 14,8 persen. kelompok swasta lain pendidikan tinggi smp sebesar 18,6 persen, sma 45 persen dan pt 36,4 persen. pendidikan perguruan tinggi yang paling banyak berada pada kelompok swasta lain (36,4 persen) sementara paling rendah swasta islam (14,8 persen). tempat tinggal saat responden berusia 12 tahun untuk kelompok sekolah negeri 55,5 persen tinggal di desa, 28,8 persen tinggal di kota dan 15,6 persen tinggal di kota besar. kelompok sekolah swasta 47,5 persen tinggal di jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015: 83-98 90 desa, 30,1 persen tinggal di kota dan 22,4 persen tinggal di kota besar. kelompok sekolah swasta islam 63,9 persen tinggal di desa, 24,2 persen tinggal di kota dan 11,9 persen tinggal di kota besar. kelompok swasta lain 35,7 persen tinggal di desa, 40 persen tinggal di kota dan 24,3 persen tinggal di kota besar. tempat tinggal dari kelompok sekolah negeri sekitar 19,8 persen berada di jawa barat, swasta sekuler sekitar 16,4 persen berada di jawa barat dan 16,6 persen berada di jawa timur, swasta islam 16,7 persen berada di jawa tengah, dan swasta lain 22,1 persen berada di jakarta. banyaknya observasi untuk kelompok sekolah negeri, swasta sekuler, swasta islam dan swasta lain masing-masing secara berurutan adalah 1.498, 731, 670, dan 140 responden. hasil dan pembahasan 1. penentu tipe sekolah analisis dimulai dengan mengestimasi sebuah model penentuan tipe sekolah. orang tua siswa memilih tipe sekolah menjadi empat bagian yaitu negeri, swasta sekuler, swasta islam dan swasta lain. untuk mengestimasi peluang memasuki tipe sekolah tertentu digunakan model multinomial logit, karena variabel dependennya merupakan tipe sekolah yang dipilih. variabel yang dimasukkan dalam persamaan penentu tipe sekolah adalah variabel latar belakang keluarga seperti agama, bahasa yang digunakan sehari-hari, pendidikan orang tua, tempat tinggal saat usia 12 tahun apakah tinggal di desa, kota atau kota besar, dan untuk mengontrol ability siswa digunakan dummy tinggal kelas saat sd. penulis tidak menggunakan nilai ujian akhir sd sebagai variabel kontrol karena hanya sedikit responden yang melaporkan nilai ujiannya (625 dari 4,439 responden). selain itu dimasukkan variabel gender (pria) sebagai kontrol variabel. tabel 4 (lampiran) menyajikan hasil dari estimasi model multinomial logit dengan tambahan hasil perhitungan marginal effect. agama memainkan peranan besar dalam pemilihan tipe sekolah terlihat dari variabel ini yang signifikan pada semua estimasi tipe sekolah swasta. responden muslim memiliki peluang lebih kecil untuk memasuki sekolah swasta sekuler dan swasta non islam, tetapi memiliki peluang yang lebih besar pada swasta islam. variabel tempat tinggal saat usia 12 tahun mempunyai peran dalam pemilihan tipe sekolah. responden yang tinggal di desa memiliki peluang lebih kecil memilih tipe sekolah swasta sekuler dan swasta lain dibandingkan responden yang tinggal di kota besar, dan memiliki peluang yang lebih besar memilih sekolah swasta islam. variabel tidak pernah naik kelas saat sd pun memiliki peran dalam pemilihan tipe sekolah, responden yang pernah tinggal kelas saat sd memiliki peluang yang lebih besar memilih swasta sekuler, swasta islam, dan swasta lain dibandingkan masuk ke sekolah negeri (marginal effect untuk sekolah negeri negatif). seseorang yang beragama islam menaikkan peluang memilih sekolah negeri 4,8 persen, menurunkan peluang memilih sekolah swasta sekuler 5,1 persen, menaikkan peluang memilih sekolah swasta islam 16,0 persen dan menurunkan peluang memilih sekolah swasta non islam 15,7 persen. seseorang yang berasal dari desa menaikkan peluang memilih sekolah negeri 4,6 persen, menurunkan peluang memilih sekolah swasta sekuler 8,4 persen, menaikkan peluang memilih sekolah swasta islam 5 persen, dan menurunkan peluang memilih sekolah swasta non islam 1,2 persen dibandingkan yang berasal dari kota besar. namun, peluang yang signifikan hanya untuk tipe sekolah swasta sekuler. seseorang yang pernah tidak naik kelas di sekolah dasar menurunkan peluang memilih sekolah negeri 9,1 persen, menaikkan peluang memilih sekolah swasta sekuler 6,0 persen, menaikkan peluang memilih sekolah swasta islam 1,9 persen, dan menaikkan peluang memilih sekolah swasta non islam 1,2 persen dibandingkan yang tidak pernah tidak naik kelas di sekolah dasar. 2. persamaan pendapatan berdasarkan kelompok tipe sekolah apabila siswa pada tiap tipe sekolah terbagi dengan karakteristik yang tak terukur sama, maka estimasi ols pasti tidak akan bias. namun apabila orang tua memilihkan anaknya tipe sekolah tertentu dengan harapan memiliki penghasilan yang lebih besar di kemudian hari, maka subsampel untuk tipe sekolah tidak acak dan ols akan menghasilkan estimasi yang bias. untuk mengatasi hal ini perlu variabel kontrol efektivitas tipe-tipe sekolah. ..(nenny hendajany) 91 peluang memilih tipe sekolah (lamda), yang dihasilkan dari prediksi hasil estimasi model multinomial logit. data yang digunakan penulis adalah polling cross section maka perlu penambahan variabel tahun sebagai variabel kontrol untuk mengetahui adanya perbedaan pendapatan responden pada tahun 2000 dan 2007. tabel 5 (lampiran) memperlihatkan hasil estimasi ols untuk masing-masing tipe sekolah dengan tambahan variabel kontrol lamda. sebagian besar variabel mempengaruhi pendapatan kecuali variabel agama dan tempat tinggal sewaktu umur 12 tahun. usia responden mempengaruhi pendapatan pada tiap kelompok tipe sekolah. semakin bertambah usia semakin besar pendapatan namun pada saat mencapai usia tertentu akan menurun (lihat usia kuadrat signifikan dan negatif). setiap penambahan usia 1 tahun akan meningkatkan pendapatan pertahun sebesar 16,9 persen, 17,5 persen, 14,6 persen dan 16,3 persen secara berurutan untuk kelompok negeri, swasta, swasta islam, dan swasta lain. responden pria menghasilkan pendapatan yang lebih tinggi dibandingkan wanita. pengalaman kerja seseorang mempengaruhi pendapatan, terlihat tiga kelompok signifikan dan untuk kelompok swasta lain walau tidak signifikan tetapi tandanya tetap positif. penambahan pengalaman kerja 1 tahun meningkatkan pendapatan sebesar 4,1 persen, 3,3 persen dan 2,6 persen secara berurutan untuk kelompok negeri, swasta, dan swasta islam. jenjang pendidikan seseorang mempengaruhi pendapatan, walaupun tidak semua kelompok signifikan tetapi semua memiliki tanda positif. semakin tinggi jenjang pendidikan seseorang semakin besar pendapatannya. responden yang memiliki jenjang pendidikan perguruan tinggi memiliki pendapatan 53,9 persen, 60,7 persen dan 84,9 persen lebih tinggi dibandingkan responden dengan jenjang pendidikan sekolah menengah pertama secara berurutan untuk kelompok sekolah negeri, swasta, dan swasta lain. terdapat bukti yang cukup kuat dari selection positif pada sekolah negeri. pola selection positif ini sesuai dengan pemahaman kita mengenai mekanisme pemilihan tipe sekolah di indonesia, bahwa persepsi sekolah negeri lebih unggul. selection positif pada sekolah swasta islam pun signifikan walau tidak cukup kuat, ini memperlihatkan bahwa orang tua sudah mulai memikirkan tambahan pendidikan agama. hal ini sesuai dengan yang diperoleh dalam tabel 4 (lampiran) bahwa agama islam mempengaruhi cukup kuat dalam memilih sekolah swasta islam. selain itu responden yang lebih dari 80 persen beragama islam memberikan selection positif bagi pemilihan sekolah islam ini. selection negatif terdapat pada kelompok swasta dan swasta lain namun hasilnya tidak signifikan. 3. perbedaan dekomposisi pendapatan bedi dan garg (2000) menggunakan dekomposisi blinder-oaxaca untuk mengestimasi perbedaan pendapatan antara lulusan sekolah negeri dan swasta. dekomposisi blinder-oaxaca menjelaskan gap log pendapatan dalam tiga bagian: pertama, disebabkan perbedaan selektivitas bias, dua, dikarenakan perbedaan dalam karakteristik rata-rata kelompok tipe sekolah yang diikuti dan tiga, dikarenakan perbedaan dalam parameter fungsi pendapatan. sesuai bedi dan garg (2000) teknik dekomposisi di mana diagonal d sama dengan 0,5, hal ini untuk menghindari hasil dekomposisi yang tidak konsisten. dengan command oaxaca dalam stata kita tabel 6. perbedaan log pendapatan berbagai tipe sekolah swasta dengan sekolah negeri lnpendt swasta swasta islam swasta lain differential prediction_negeri 15,513*** 15,513*** 15,513*** prediction 15,370*** 15,145*** 15,612*** difference 0,143*** 0,368*** -0,099 decomposit~n endowments 0,110** 0,325*** -0,158 coeficients 0,027 0,082** -0,154 interaction 0,007 -0,040 0,213 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015: 83-98 92 dapatkan estimasi dari model, hasil command tersebut sesuai dengan persamaan (12), yang belum menyertakan permasalahan selection bias nya. terdapat berbagai variasi hasil tampilan yang dapat disajikan di antaranya dekomposisi three-fold, dekomposisi two-fold dan dekomposisi detail. sementara untuk mengetahui hasil eksponensialnya dapat menggunakan: commando axaca, eform. tabel 6 memperlihatkan hasil dekomposisi three-fold untuk masing-masing lulusan sekolah swasta sekuler (swasta), swasta islam, dan swasta keagamaan selain islam (swasta lain) yang dibandingkan dengan sekolah negeri. output dari dekomposisi menampilkan dua panel, pertama berisikan prediksi rata-rata masingmasing kelompok dan perbedaannya. rata-rata log pendapatan lulusan sekolah negeri 15.513 sedangkan lulusan sekolah swasta 15.370, lulusan swasta islam 15.145 dan lulusan swasta lain 15.612. perbedaan diperoleh 0,143, 0,368 dan -0,099 untuk lulusan swasta, swasta islam dan swasta lain secara berurutan dibandingkan dengan lulusan negeri. hanya perbedaan antara lulusan swasta lain dengan negeri yang tidak signifikan. lulusan sekolah negeri menikmati 14,3 persen log pendapatan lebih tinggi dibanding lulusan sekolah swasta dan 36,8 persen dibanding sekolah swasta islam. meskipun perbedaan log pendapatan tidak signifikan, tapi besaran dan tandanya menyatakan bahwa lulusan sekolah swasta lain menikmati 9,9 persen log pendapatan lebih tinggi dibanding lulusan sekolah negeri. panel dua dari output dekomposisi kesenjangan pendapatan dibagi menjadi tiga bagian. bagian pertama menunjukkan rata-rata peningkatan pendapatan lulusan swasta jika mereka mempunyai karakteristik yang sama dengan lulusan negeri. peningkatan 0,116 menunjukkan perbedaan dalam endowment untuk mencapai setengah dari kesenjangan log pendapatan lulusan swasta dan negeri. peningkatan 0,325 menunjukkan perbedaan dalam endowment untuk mencapai setengah dari kesenjangan log pendapatan lulusan swasta islam dan negeri. bagian dua mengkuantifikasi perubahan dalam pendapatan lulusan tipe sekolah swasta ketika menerapkan koefisien lulusan negeri pada karakteristik tipe swasta. hanya tipe swasta islam yang signifikan, rata-rata peningkatan pendapatan lulusan swasta islam jika mereka menerapkan koefisien negeri pada karakteristik swasta islam. peningkatan 0,082 menunjukkan perbedaan dalam koefisien untuk mencapai setengah dari kesenjangan log pendapatan lulusan swasta islam dan negeri. bagian tiga mengukur dampak simultan dari perbedaan endowment dan koefisien. tabel 7 menunjukkan hasil perbedaan pendapatan lulusan berbagai tipe sekolah dengan lulusan sekolah negeri. memiliki besaran perbedaan yang sedikit berbeda namun tanda yang sama. lulusan sekolah negeri rata-rata geometrik pendapatannya sebesar rp5.462.772 per tahun, sedangkan lulusan swasta, swasta islam dan swasta lain masing-masing secara berurutan: rp4.735.348; rp3.781.475 dan rp6.030.219. lulusan sekolah negeri lebih tinggi pendapatannya sebesar 15,4 persen dibandingkan lulusan sekolah swata, lebih tinggi 44,5 persen dibandingkan lulusan sekolah swasta islam, dan lebih rendah 9,4 persen dibandingkan lulusan swasta lain. penyesuaian tingkat endowment lulusan swasta menjadi tingkat endowment lulusan negeri akan meningkatkan pendapatan sebesar 11,6 persen, sementara untuk lulusan tabel 7. perbedaan pendapatan berbagai tipe sekolah swasta dengan sekolah negeri lnpendt swasta swasta islam swasta lain differential prediction_negeri 5.462.772*** 5.462.772*** 5.462.772*** prediction 4.735.348*** 3.781.475*** 6.030.219*** difference 1,154*** 1,445*** 0,906 decomposit~n endowments 1,116** 1,384*** 0,854 coeficients 1,027 1,086** 0,858 interaction 1,007 0,961 1,237 efektivitas tipe-tipe sekolah. ..(nenny hendajany) 93 swasta islam akan meningkatkan pendapatan sebesar 38,4 persen. penyesuaian koefisien lulusan swasta islam menjadi koefisien lulusan negeri akan meningkatkan pendapatan sebesar 8,6 persen. namun hasil tabel 5 (lampiran) memperlihatkan bahwa koefisien selection bias ( signifikan, oleh karenanya perlu mempertimbangkan selection bias ini pada persamaan dekomposisi blinder-oaxaca. persamaan (13) memperhitungkan selection bias, yaitu dengan menambahkan ̅ ̅ di sisi kanan atau ̅ ̅ di sisi kiri. ̅ untuk sekolah negeri, swasta, swasta islam, dan swasta lain secara berurutan adalah 0,659, 0,644, 0,650, dan0,580.estimasi koefisien diperoleh dari tabel (5) untuk sekolah negeri, swasta, swasta islam dan swasta lain secara berurutan adalah: 1,005***, -0,406, 1,753*, dan -0,621. karenahanya ada dua estimasi koefisien yang signifikan maka perkalian ̅ untuk sekolah negeri, swasta, swasta islam dan swasta lain secara berurutan adalah 0,662, 0, 1,139, dan 0. tabel 8 menunjukkan perbedaan log pendapatan antara lulusan sekolah negeri dengan berbagai lulusan tipe sekolah swasta dengan melibatkan selection bias. hasilnya menunjukkan bahwaperbedaan log pendapatan antara lulusan sekolah negeri dengan lulusan swasta dinikmati lebih tinggi oleh lulusan swasta sebesar 51,9 persen, sementara untuk perbedaan log pendapatan antara lulusan sekolah negeri dengan lulusan swasta islam dinikmati lebih tinggi oleh lulusan negeri sebesar 84,5 persen. simpulan perlunya kita mengetahui efektifitas sekolah negeri dan swasta agar dapat membantu dalam memberikan gambaran secara luas kebijakan pemerintah khususnya di bidang pendidikan. paper ini menjelaskan efektivitas sekolah menengah pertama negeri dibandingkan dengan swasta, di mana ukuran efektivitas yang digunakan penulis adalah pendapatan yang diperoleh dipasar tenaga kerja. karena kita meyakini bahwa pilihan tipe sekolah itu endogenous maka dalam membandingkan perbedaan pendaptan antara lulusan sekolah negeri dan swasta haruslah menambahkan koreksi untuk selection bias. kita menemukan bukti yang cukup kuat dari selection positif pada sekolah negeri (tabel 5 dalam lampiran). pola selection positif ini sesuai dengan pemahaman kita mengenai mekanisme pemilihan tipe sekolah di indonesia, bahwa persepsi sekolah negeri lebih unggul. selection positif pada sekolah swasta islam pun signifikan walau tidak cukup kuat, ini memperlihatkan bahwa orang tua sudah mulai memikirkan tambahan pendidikan agama. berdasarkan rujukan dari paper bedi dan garg (2000), penulis mendapatkan hasil empiris yang sama dalam tanda perbedaan log pendapatan walaupun besarannya relatif berbeda. hasil empiris bedi dan garg dengan menggunakan data ifls1 adanya perbedaan log pendapatan antara lulusan sekolah negeri dengan lulusan swasta dinikmati lebih tinggi oleh lulusan swasta sebesar 75,4 persen, perbedaan log pendapatan antara lulusan sekolah negeri dengan lulusan swasta islam dinikmati lebih tinggi oleh lulusan negeri sebesar 46,8 persen, sementara untuk perbedaan log pendapatan antara lulusan sekolah negeri dengan lulusan swasta lain dinikmati lebih tinggi oleh lulusan swasta lain sebesar 4,6 persen. sementara penulis menggunakan data ifls3 dan ifls4 memperoleh hasil empiris sebagai berikut: perbedaan log pendapatan antara lulusan sekolah negeri dengan lulusan swasta dinikmati lebih tabel 8. perbedaan log pendapatan dengan selection bias tipe sekolah swasta perbedaan log pendapatan selection bias exclude include swasta umum 0,143*** -0,519*** swasta islam 0,368*** 0,845*** swasta lain -0,099 -0,761 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015: 83-98 94 tinggi oleh lulusan swasta sebesar 51,9 persen, perbedaan log pendapatan antara lulusan sekolah negeri dengan lulusan swasta islam dinikmati lebih tinggi oleh lulusan negeri sebesar 84,5 persen, sementara untuk perbedaan log pendapatan antara lulusan sekolah negeri dengan lulusan swasta lain dinikmati lebih tinggi oleh lulusan swasta lain sebesar 76,1 persen walau tidak signifikan. daftar 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(1996). finance, management and costs of public and private schools in indonesia. economics of education review 15(4): 387-398. jann, b., (2008). a stata implementation of the blinder-oaxaca decomposition. eth zurich sociology working paper no. 5 kim, y., liu, c., dan rhee, s.g. (2003). the effect of firm size on earning management. journal college of business administration university of hawai.vol. 6 pp. 130. lee, l.f., (1983). generalized econometric models with selectivity. econometrica vol 51 no.2, pp 507-512. medoff, j.l., abraham, k.g., (1980). experience, performance and earnings, the quarterly journal of economics, vol. xcv, no. 4, pp. 703-736. neal, d., (1997). the effect of catholic secondary schooling on educational attainment. journal of laboreconomics 15, 98–123. newhouse, d., beegle, k., (2006). the effect of school type on academic achievement: evidence from indonesia. journal of human resources, vol 41. no.3, 529 – 557 oaxaca, r., (1973). male–female differentials in urban labor markets. international economic review 3, 693–709. reimers, c. w. (1983). labor market discrimination against hispanic and black men. the review of economics and statistics 65: 570–579 strauss, john, kathleen beegle, agus dwiyanto, yulia herawati, daan pattinasarany, elan satriawan, bondan sikoki, sukamdi, firman witoelar. (2004). indonesian living standards: before and after the financial crisis. rand corporation, usa, and institute of southeast asian studies. efektivitas tipe-tipe sekolah. ..(nenny hendajany) 95 lampiran tabel 2. definisi dan ringkasan statistik variabel variabel keterangan variabel rata-rata standar deviasi lnpendt log natural pendapatan selama tahun 15.438 1.243 usia usia responden 28.205 7.327 negeri pilihan sekolah smp negeri atau madrasah ibtidaiyah negeri ya=1, tidak=0 0,653 0,476 swasta pilihan sekolah smp swasta sekuler ya=1, tidak=0 0,165 0,371 swaislam pilihan sekolah smp swasta islam ya=1, tidak=0 0,151 0,358 swalain pilihan sekolah smp swasta non islam ya=1, tidak=0 0,031 0,175 smp smp merupakan tingkat pendidikan tertinggi? ya=1, tidak=0 0,310 0,463 sma sma merupakan tingkat pendidikan tertinggi? ya=1, tidak=0 0,481 0,500 pt pt merupakan tingkat pendidikan tertinggi? ya=1, tidak=0 0,209 0,407 pria dummy jenis kelamin pria=1 wanita=0 0,715 0,451 islam dummy agama islam=1 nonislam=0 0,881 0,324 tdknaiksd selama sd pernah tinggal kelas? ya=1, tidak=0 0,159 0,366 desa hidup di desa sampai umur 12 tahun? ya=1, tidak=0 0,548 0,498 kota hidup di kota kecil sampai umur 12 tahun? ya=1, tidak=0 0,287 0,452 kota_besar hidup di kota besar sampai umur 12 tahun? ya=1, tidak=0 0,165 0,371 bhsindo apakah berbahasa indonesia dalam kehidupan sehari hari ? ya=1, tidak=0 0,405 0,491 pend_ayahtdksd tingkat pendidikan ayah tidak pernah sekolah ya=1, tidak=0 0,034 0,181 pend_ayahsd tingkat pendidikan tertinggi ayah adalah sd ya=1, tidak=0 0,079 0,270 pend_ayahsmp tingkat pendidikan tertinggi ayah adalah smp ya=1, tidak=0 0,744 0,437 pend_ayahsmapt tingkat pendidikan tertinggi ayah adalah sma ke atas ya=1, tidak=0 0,143 0,351 pend_ibutdksd tingkat pendidikan ibu tidak pernah sekolah ya=1, tidak=0 0,033 0,179 pend_ibusd tingkat pendidikan tertinggi ibu adalah sd ya=1, tidak=0 0,276 0,447 pend_ibusmp tingkat pendidikan tertinggi ibu adalah smp ya=1, tidak=0 0,561 0,496 pend_ibusmapt tingkat pendidikan tertinggi ibu adalah sma ke atas ya=1, tidak=0 0,131 0,337 sumut tinggal di sumatra utara ya=1, tidak=0 0,070 0,255 sumbar tinggal di sumatra barat ya=1, tidak=0 0,055 0,229 sumsel tinggal di sumatra selatan ya=1, tidak=0 0,045 0,206 lampung tinggal di lampung ya=1, tidak=0 0,034 0,180 jakarta tinggal di jakarta ya=1, tidak=0 0,133 0,340 jabar tinggal di jawa barat ya=1, tidak=0 0,184 0,387 jateng tinggal di jawa tengah ya=1, tidak=0 0,098 0,298 yogyakarta tinggal di yogyakarta ya=1, tidak=0 0,056 0,230 jatim tinggal di jawa timur ya=1, tidak=0 0,122 0,327 banten tinggal di banten ya=1, tidak=0 0,023 0,149 bali tinggal di bali ya=1, tidak=0 0,046 0,209 ntb tinggal di nusa tenggara barat ya=1, tidak=0 0,046 0,209 kalsel tinggal di kalimantan selatan ya=1, tidak=0 0,045 0,207 sulsel tinggal di sulawesi selatan ya=1, tidak=0 0,040 0,195 bangka tinggal di kepulauan bangka belitung ya=1, tidak=0 0,005 0,072 riau tinggal di riau ya=1, tidak=0 0,018 0,132 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015: 83-98 96 tlain tinggal di provinsi lainnya ya=1, tidak=0 0,005 0,072 pengalaman lama bekerja dalam tahun 4,492 4,735 sgtkecil perusahaan dengan jumlah karyawan < 5 0,430 0,495 kecil perusahaan dengan jumlah karyawan antara 5 sampai dengan 19 0,248 0,432 menengah perusahaan dengan jumlah karyawan atnara 20 sampai dengan 99 0,191 0,393 besar perusahaan dengan jumlah karyawan 100 orang lebih. 0,131 0,337 observasi banyaknya responden sebagai sampel 4439 tabel 3. definisi dan ringkasan statistik variabel per kelompok tipe sekolah variabel negeri swasta sekuler swasta islam swasta lain lnpendt 15.513 (1,231) 15.371 (1,195) 15.146 (1,280) 15.612 (1,333) usia 28,177 (7,366) 28,741 (7,133) 27,016 (7,197) 31,650 (7,452) smp 0,274 (0,446) 0,320 (0,467) 0,481 (0,500) 0,186 (0,390) sma 0,496 (0,500) 0,528 (0,500) 0,371 (0,484) 0,450 (0,499) pt 0,230 (0,421) 0,152 (0,359) 0,148 (0,355) 0,364 (0,483) pria 0,711 (0,453) 0,743 (0,437) 0,699 (0,459) 0,721 (0,449) islam 0,888 (0,316) 0,852 (0,355) 0,996 (0,067) 0,350 (0,479) tdknaiksd 0,140 (0,347) 0,200 (0,400) 0,184 (0,387) 0,236 (0,426) desa 0,555 (0,497) 0,475 (0,500) 0,639 (0,481) 0,357 (0,481) kota 0,288 (0,453) 0,301 (0,459) 0,242 (0,428) 0,400 (0,492) kota_besar 0,156 (0,363) 0,224 (0,417) 0,119 (0,325) 0,243 (0,430) bhsindo 0,405 (0,491) 0,450 (0,498) 0,330 (0,471) 0,521 (0,501) pend_ayahsd 0,077 (0,267) 0,063 (0,243) 0,109 (0,312) 0,057 (0,233) pend_ayahsmp 0,746 (0,436) 0,773 (0,419) 0,719 (0,450) 0,664 (0,474) pend_ayahsmapt 0,143 (0,350) 0,140 (0,347) 0,131 (0,338) 0,243 (0,430) pend_ibusd 0,255 (0,436) 0,276 (0,447) 0,363 (0,481) 0,271 (0,446) pend_ibusmp 0,585 (0,492) 0,568 (0,496) 0,470 (0,499) 0,457 (0,500) pend_ibusmapt 0,127 (0,333) 0,129 (0,335) 0,124 (0,330) 0,243 (0,430) sumut 0,062 (0,241) 0,109 (0,312) 0,054 (0,226) 0,100 (0,301) sumbar 0,066 (0,248) 0,029 (0,167) 0,040 (0,197) 0,050 (0,218) sumsel 0,035 (0,183) 0,088 (0,282) 0,039 (0,193) 0,050 (0,219) lampung 0,024 (0,155) 0,071 (0,257) 0,039 (0,193) 0 jakarta 0,130 (0,336) 0,138 (0,345) 0,125 (0,331) 0,221 (0,417) jabar 0,198 (0,399) 0,164 (0,371) 0,158 (0,365) 0,107 (0,310) jateng 0,092 (0,290) 0,049 (0,217) 0,167 (0,373) 0,157 (0,365) yogyakarta 0,052 (0,222) 0,033 (0,178) 0,078 (0,268) 0,150 (0,358) jatim 0,106 (0,308) 0,166 (0,372) 0,146 (0,354) 0,093 (0,291) banten 0,026 (0,159) 0,012 (0,110) 0,024 (0,153) 0,007 (0,085) bali 0,049 (0,216) 0,074 (0,262) 0,009 (0,094) 0 ntb 0,051 (0,219) 0,007 (0,082) 0,076 (0,265) 0 kalsel 0,051 (0,221) 0,030 (0,171) 0,039 (0,193) 0 sulsel 0,050 (0,217) 0,025 (0,155) 0,018 (0,133) 0,014 (0,119) bangka 0,005 (0,074) 0,005 (0,074) 0,003 (0,055) 0 riau 0,021 (0,144) 0,010 (0,097) 0,009 (0,094) 0,036 (0,186) tlain 0,007 (0,085) 0,003 (0,052) 0 0 pengalaman 4,539 (4,790) 4,592 (4,894) 3,998 (4,203) 5,339 (4,987) sgtkecil 0,421 (0,494) 0,446 (0,497) 0,452 (0,498) 0,421 (0,496) kecil 0,248 (0,432) 0,239 (0,427) 0,260 (0,439) 0,229 (0,421) menengah 0,191 (0,393) 0,198 (0,399) 0,181 (0,385) 0,214 (0,412) besar 0,140 (0,347) 0,116 (0,321) 0,107 (0,310) 0,136 (0,344) observasi 1498 731 670 140 efektivitas tipe-tipe sekolah. ..(nenny hendajany) 97 tabel 4. marginal effect penentu tipe sekolah menengah pertama negeri swasta sekuler swasta islam swasta lain pria islam desa kota bhsindo tdknaiksd pend_ayahsd pend_ayahsmp pend_ayahsmapt pend_ibusd pend_ibusmp pend_ibusmapt _cons -,009 ,048 ,046 ,036 -,014 -,091 -,041 -,083 -,000 ,003 ,084 -,021 0,144 ,022 -0,359*** -,051 -0,549*** -,084 -0,244*** -,047 0,206** ,032 0,454*** ,060 0,208 ,027 0,602** ,074 0,078 ,014 -0,002 ,000 -0,296 -,030 0,075 ,008 -1,271*** -0,115 -0,015 3,271*** ,160 0,372*** ,050 0,049 0,012 -0,163 -,021 0,289** ,019 0,178 0,014 0,140 0,003 -0,085 -,010 -0,003 0,000 -0,461* -,040 0,030 -,000 -4,632*** 0,169 ,002 -2,852*** -,157 -0,810*** -,012 -0,096 -0,001 0,245 ,003 0,748*** ,012 0,090 0,000 0,534 0,006 -0,289 -0,004 -0,229 -0,003 -0,990 -,014 0,703 ,013 -1,015 catatan: marginal effect dari model estimasi multinomial logit pada tipe sekolah smp. kategori yang menjadi baseoutcome adalah smp negeri.*mengindikasikan koefisien logit yang signifikan pada 10 %, ** pada 5 % dan *** pada 1 %. tabel 5. persamaan pendapatan berdasarkan kelompok tipe sekolah negeri swasta swasta islam swasta lain lnpendt lnpendt lnpendt lnpendt b(se) b(se) b(se) b(se) usia 0,169***(0,015) 0,175***(0,031) 0,146***(0,034) 0,163*(0,089) usia2 -0,002***(0,000) -0,002***(0,001) -0,002***(0,001) -0,002(0,001) pria 0,293***(0,037) 0,191** (0,08) 0,216*** (0,083) -0,22(0,196) pengalaman 0,041***(0,004) 0,033***(0,008) 0,026***(0,01) 0,022(0,022) kecil 0,136***(0,041) 0,231***(0,084) 0,086(0,091) 0,667*** (0,212) menengah 0,185***(0,045) 0,225**(0,092) 0,382***(0,106) 0,614**(0,236) besar 0,375***(0,052) 0,367***(0,113) 0,419*** (0,13) 0,814*** (0,268) tahun 1,180***(0,033) 1,156***(0,068) 1,315***(0,077) 0,931***(0,184) bhsindo 0,204***(0,041) 0,163*(0,084) 0,042(0,102) 0,377*(0,2) sma 0,185***(0,04) 0,125(0,079) 0,112(0,085) 0,476*(0,246) pt 0,539***(0,051) 0,607***(0,114) 0,153(0,12) 0,849*** (0,275) islam 0,017(0,065) -0,054(0,133) -0,748(0,568) -0,067(0,21) desa -0,068(0,052) -0,111(0,098) -0,229*(0,128) 0,452*(0,258) kota -0,018(0,054) -0,114(0,099) -0,211(0,137) 0,242(0,216) sumut -0,256***(0,081) 0,157 (0,141) 0,018 (0,189) 0,001 (0,338) sumbar -0,199** (0,083) 0,060 (0,219) -0,427* (0,220) 0,324 (0,434) sumsel -0,173* (0,102) 0,019 (0,156) -0,328 (0,227) -0,715*(0,411) lampung -0,409***(0,113) -0,294* (0,158) -0,716***(0,217) jabar -0,063 (0,063) 0,237* (0,130) -0,130 (0,149) 0,0903 (0,342) jateng -0,267***(0,080) 0,009 (0,195) -0,369**(0,168) -0,958***(0,288) yogyakarta -0,341***(0,089) -0,163 (0,212) -0,482***(0,182) -1,080***(0,299) jatim -0,169** (0,077) -0,106 (0,146) -0,145 (0,167) -0,590*(0,321) banten 0,068 (0,107) 0,117 (0,312) -0,189 (0,259) 0,626 (1,037) bali -0,195* (0,102) 0,061 (0,196) -0,458 (0,409) 0,625 (0,974) ntb -0,428***(0,091) -0,251 (0,412) -0,668***(0,193) jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015: 83-98 98 kalsel -0,110 (0,089) 0,025 (0,220) -0,278 (0,228) -1,295*(0,731) sulsel -0,258***(0,087) 0,002 (0,228) -0,221 (0,295) -0,234 (0,706) bangka -0,020 (0,223) 0,378 (0,464) -0,059 (0,667) riau 0,217* (0,121) 0,551 (0,352) -0,084 (0,398) 0,329 (0,495) provlain 0,479 **(0,193) 0,049 (0,633) 1,005***(0,354) -0,406(0,637) 1,753*(0,91) -0,621(1,148) _cons 10,839***(0,309) 11,671***(0,601) 11,751***(0,863) 11,169***(1,544) r-squared 0,518 0,46 0,478 0,545 n 2898 731 670 140 catatan: *signifikan pada 10 %, ** 5 % dan *** 1 %. ukuran perusahaan merupakan multipel dummydengan variabel sangat kecil sebagai basis, pendidikan tertinggi merupakan multipel dummy dengan smp sebagai basis, tempat tinggal saat usia 12 merupakan multipel dummy dengan kota besar sebagai basis, regional tempat tinggal saat disurvei merupakan multipel dummy dengan jakarta sebagai basis. studi efektivitas pelayanan publik di kecamatan kejaksan kota cirebon jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 1, april 2016, hlm. 8-15 doi: 10.18196/jesp.17.1.2456 regional integration and intra oic trade: lessons from indonesia and malaysia dyah titis kusuma wardani faculty of economics and business, universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta, indonesia jalan lingkar selatan, bantul, yogyakarta 55183 indonesia, phone +62-274-387656 correspondence e-mail: dyahtitis@fe.umy.ac.id received: november 2015; accepted: february 2016 abstract: in addition to their membership in the organization of islamic cooperation (oic), indonesia and malaysia are also involved as active members in the evolving association of south-east asian nation (asean). this raises a question over whether involvement in the asean, especially how asean free trade area (afta) brings about a negative or positive impact on indonesia’s and malaysia’s trade performance with fellow oic member countries. the current paper attempts to examine empirically the likelihood of such relationship and explore whether there presents a systematic difference between the case of indonesia and malaysia. based on the results, some implications will be highlighted and policy recommendations will be offered. keywords: regional integration; asean; afta; intra oic trade jel classification: f10, f15 abstrak: selain memiliki keanggotaan dalam organisasi kerjasama islam (oki), indonesia dan malaysia juga tergabung sebagai anggota aktif dalam asosiasi negaranegara se asia tenggara (asean). hal ini menimbulkan sebuah pertanyaan, mengenai apakah dengan keanggotaan indonesia dan malaysia di asean, terutama tentang bagaimana area perdagangan bebas asean (afta) tersebut bisa berdampak positif atau negatif terhadap perdagangan indonesia dan malaysia terhadap negara-negara anggota oki. paper ini akan memeriksa pengaruh keanggotaan indonesia dan malaysia dalam asean terhadap perdagangan indonesia dan malaysia terhadap oki dan akan menggali adakah perbedaan yang sistimatis antara kasus indonesia dan malaysia. berdasarkan hasil penelitian, beberapa implikasi akan digarisbawahi dan rekomendasi kebijakan akan ditawarkan. kata kunci: integrasi regional; asean; afta; perdagangan intra oic klasifikasi jel: f10, f15 regional integration and intra oic trade... (dyah titis kusuma wardani) 9 introduction despite recent agreement on the 10-year plan of action at the third extraordinary islamic summit, the trade among oic countries has gone up to 16.7 per cent of the total trade of the 57-member states in 2009 from 14.5 per cent in 2004. still, the economic experts and businessmen insist, the target of increasing the share of trade among oic member-states under the 10year plan of action agreed at the third extraordinary islamic summit to 20 per cent of their total trade by 2015 will not be possible. when the intra-oic trade is increase significantly, this will potential to address the issues of poverty, low economic growth and investment in the member countries. however, it needs to remove restriction in terms of interaction and cooperation between private sectors of the member of the oic. diplomats are agree that, the lack of interest amongst the oic members to achieve the goal of a common market agenda as suggested at the islamic summit in 1974 is because of the lack of political will to increase trade between the oic member countries. this evidence is a major factor responsible for the low of trade flow between the muslim countries. in addition, lack of political and economic will in many oic countries and governments for signing bilateral and multilateral free trade agreements among them tend to decrease development on trade and investment relations within the oic member countries. if the 57 oic countries had the political will, the muslim countries would have stronger economic relationship. however, it was disappointed to know that, in majority, muslim countries are more confident to trade with the united states or europe rather than other oic states. the effect of political will on trade size among the oic countries is supported by cindoruk (1992). he argues that, the political will of the leaders of the islamic countries is the key point for icm development in order to overcome some difficulties such as the communication problem as well as transport systems. it is official that among the organization of islamic cooperation (oic)’s objective is to strengthen intra-islamic economic cooperation towards the establishment of an islamic common market (icm). in various occasions, the member countries of the oic have reemphasized such objective and reaffirmed their commitments. during the third islamic summit conference in 1981, for example, the member countries of the oic have established what so-called the standing committee for economic and commercial cooperation of the oic (comcec, 2001). in the 2005 extraordinary islamic summit conference in makkah, oic member countries have announced the adoption of a ten year program of action which includes a target to increase intra-oic trade up to 20 percent of the members’ total trade by 2015. muslim world trade to boost the islamic brotherhood relationship among fellow muslim countries, for example oic member countries. besides, to increase economic growth and gain benefit from the member of trading group. however, hitherto economic ties between oic member countries remain below expectation. until the end of 2013, the share of intraoic trade in total trade of the oic countries has not exceeded 18.2 per cent. besides, there presents deep concentration of trade by country and product. the top ten countries account for over 70 per cent of intra-oic trade, with uae, turkey and saudi arabia leading the way. exports are heavily concentrated in primary products like oil, natural gas and metals, with low technology intensive manufacturing. there have been a number of studies that attempted to examine the determinants of intraoic trade. these include studies covering oic member countries as a whole (bendjilali 1997; ghani 2007; gundogdu 2009) and studies covering only certain countries within the oic, such those grouped in mena (lee & gohar 2010; jafari, ismail & kouhestani 2011; saddam & kari 2012). bendjilali (1997) found that bilateral trade between two oic member countries is affected positively by the size of their economies, their joint participation in regional integration jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 1, april 2016: 8-15 10 schemes and the extent of islamic development bank trade financing. by contrast, the volume of trade between two oic countries is affected negatively by geographic distance which manifests in transportation and communication costs. the development of international trade has a trend to create a multinational trading blocs such as regional cooperation. it is created from the connection of neighboring states that agree to have common trading policies to face the competitors from other countries, for example to make an agreement in term of privileged market access and tariff. free trade agreement (fta) is an influential concept in international trade policy, in term of market access and tariff. while international trade policy literature has given a considerable attention on free trade agreements (ftas), hitherto there is hardly found any study that utilizes gravity model to analyze the effects of ftas on indonesia’s and malaysia’s trade performance with fellow muslim countries in the oic. this research will be carried out to fill this gap. this research aims to investigate the effect of fta particularly asean free trade area (afta) on indonesia's and malaysia’s trade performance with the member countries of the oic. carrère (2003) employs gravity model to evaluate ex-post regional trade agreements. the panel data analysis including 130 countries over the period from 1962 to 1996. using dummy variables, the model specification allows to identify theory of trade creation and trade diversion. result finds that regional agreement is significant to increase bilateral trade flow. abidin (2012) analysed trade cooperation between malaysia and the organization of islamic cooperation (oic) member countries. the period study takes several years from 1997 to 2009. the research aims to examine malaysiaoic trade pattern, trade determinants and to evaluate trade prospects of malaysia with the oic countries. to attain these aims, this research is using quantitative method and the panel data analysis employing the gravity model. the analysis of trade pattern indicate that the oic countries have not optimally used their resources to enhance a strong intra-oic trade. the major determinants of malaysia’s export to the oic countries are the size of the economies, level of openness of the economy, inflation rates, and the exchange rates. meanwhile, distance is not matter for malaysia’s import, whereas institution is a key determinant for malaysia export to and import from the oic member countries. dianniar (2013) examines on the impact of ftas on indonesia’s agricultural trade flows and estimates trade potentials between indonesia and other 193 countries, members and non-members ftas. she constructs the extended gravity model to test the effects of ftas on indonesia’s agricultural trade flows. instead of using the membership of afta and acfta as independent variables, she using some explanatory variables in the regression model such as gdp, indonesia’s population and distance. in addition to explanatory variables she adding some control variables, for example common language, common border and colonial link. results show that, gdp and indonesia’s population have positive impact on export, but negative on import in trade relations with members of fta. this means that income matter for indonesia’s agricultural trade flow. there is an unexpected result, since distance variable do not confirm the gravity theory, indicates that transport cost is not a significant barrier on agricultural export growth. meanwhile, common language and common border have negative effects on export, whereas colonial link has positive impact on trade. surprisingly, results show that the membership of ftas. afta and acfta do not bring significant impact on indonesia’s agricultural trade flows. in addition, indonesia tends to trade with countries that have high level standard of living, such as japan, the united states, and singapore. research method in this research, the effect of regional trade agreements on intra-oic trade is estimated based on gravity model. the model that was regional integration and intra oic trade... (dyah titis kusuma wardani) 11 first introduced by tinbergen (1962) has not only been popular for its ease of implementation, but also for its superiority in projecting the volumes of bilateral trade. in addition, the model allows to control for the effects of other trade-related variables, making it possible to isolate the effect of trade agreements that are being analysed. data data for indonesia’s and malaysia’s exports to asean and oic countries are taken from the united nations commodity trade statistics database (uncomtrade). data of population are taken from http://www. chemical-ecology.net. data for these dummies are taken mostly from de sousa (2012). regression model of specification (1) where: fijt: bilateral export flows from country i to country j at year t gdpjt: the gross domestic product (gdp) of importing countries distijt: the distance between exporting country and importing countries popjt: population of importing countries aftajt: a vector of dummies for regional trade agreements (asean free trade area membership) involving exporting countries oicjt: a vector of dummies for oic country (dummy religion) uij: random error term α0: constant the dependent variable export flows majority of the studies on gravity model use total bilateral trade flows as dependent variable. however, we use only bilateral export flows. therefore, this study uses the value of export (in u.s. dollars) as proxy of trade flows. independent variables gdp the term of gdp that is used in this study is gdp in current u.s. dollars. according to world bank, gdp is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products. distance the distance variable represents transportation costs faced by a country to export. the distance may reduce exports. the farther the distance, the higher transportation costs, the lower the export flows. population population can affect export flows through the two sides; supply and demand. on the supply side, population may represent amount of labour to undertake the production of export commodities. while on the demand side, population will increase domestic demand which means increase imports, but this research focus on export only. this study includes two dummies variables, namely; afta and oic. dummy variables 1: afta countries that join in afta may trade more. dummy is set 1 if indonesia or malaysia and their trade partners have the same ftas; and 0 otherwise. dummy variables 2: oic this study includes oic member countries as a dummy variable. thus, countries that belongs to the same membership in oic. dummy oic also reflects dummy religion. dummy oic is set 1 if indonesia or malaysia and their trade partners have the same membership in oic is 1; and 0 otherwise. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 1, april 2016: 8-15 12 hypotheses gdp the gdp for the exporting country could represent production capacity, whereas the gdp for the importing country may reflect the size of the market, which represents the potential demand for imports. a larger gdp for an exporting country implies a larger production capacity and therefore an expectation of a higher export capacity because of economies of scale (sohn, 2005). therefore an increase in gdp exporting country is expected to increase the volume of bilateral trade. thus, we hypothesize that gdp will have a positive impact on indonesian export to their trading partner such as asean countries as well as the oic countries, and this concept also applied in malaysian-case in the same way. distance distance represents trade barriers that may discourage trading activities, for instance transport costs, delivery time, cultural unfamiliarity, and market access barriers. provious studies that applied the gravity model tended to used physical distance as a measurement. however, recently, several new methods have been created to measure distance. the most familiar proxy is transportation cost. in general, it is now well accepted that relative distance is preferred instead of absolute distance. therefore, distance matters for calculating trade barrier. to support the argument of relative distance, sohn (2005) and papazoglou et al. (2006) argued that firms in exporting countries may prefer to trade with neighboring countries for cultural or historical reasons because, to a certain extent, this will lower the cost of doing business. in brief, distance may be represented by “psychological distance” between trading countries, instead of kilometers. therefore, we hypothesize that distance will negatively affect bilateral trade. population one the one hand, with regard to population, a larger population implies a large domestic production, which is expected to motivate exports in an exporting country. on the other hand, a larger population in country;s partner is expected to increase the demand for imports in an importing country (papazoglou et al., 2006). therefore, we hypothesize that the combination of a pair of trading countries’ populations (pop) will significantly affect bilateral trade. dummy of afta membership carrère (2006) highlighted two benefits when use the gravity model to capture the impact of trade agreements. first, gravity model isolates the effects of a regional trade agreement, since the model represents a relevant counterfactual that isolates the impacts of a regional trade agreement. second, gravity model isolates the trade creation and trade diversion effects of an rta, once we introduce the correct dummy variables in the model. in our case, because we want to investigate the impact of afta on bilateral trade when the trading partner has formed any type of trade agreements with other countries, we expect that an exporting country will face lower import demand from a trading partner that has trade agreements with other countries. therefore, it is hypothesized that afta of exporting countries will reduce the amount of export from the existing exporting countries. afta will be denoted by the dummy of afta will be 1 if the country is joining afta; and 0 otherwise. the data of afta signation is provided during the period of study. dummy of oic membership (religion) in this case, because this study want to investigate the impact of afta on bilateral trade when the country origin has formed any type of trade agreements with other countries, for example oic. the research expects that an exporting country will prefer export to a trading partner in asean which has the same trade agreements instead of export to the oic countries. therefore, it is hypothesized that, afta will reduce the amount of export from the existing exporting countries (indonesia; malaysia) to the oic member countries. country’s involvement in the oic membership is indicated by the dummy of oic. dummy of oic also represent dummy of religion. the oic regional integration and intra oic trade... (dyah titis kusuma wardani) 13 membership status, including indonesia and malaysia is provided during the period of study. result and discussion regression results of the random effects model: indonesia case dependent variable: fij independent variable coefficient t-statistic p-value gdpjt 0.005* 8.695 0.000 distijt -74026.94* -2.710 0.007 popjt -10.404* -4.288 0.000 ftajt 5.16e+09* 9.869 0.000 oicjt 2.02e+09* 3.743 0.000 constant -1.37e+09** -2.136 0.033 r-squared = 0.533 f-stat = 106.20* *, ** are statistically significant at 1%, 5% level regression results of the random effects model: malaysia case dependent variable: fij independent variable coefficient t-statistic p-value gdpjt 0.006* 10.416 0.000 distijt -64254.49 -0.474 0.636 popjt -7.954 -0.936 0.349 ftajt 1.99e+09 0.781 0.435 oicjt -4.36e+09*** -1.649 0.099 constant 4.85e+09*** 1.686 0.093 r-squared = 0.267 f-stat = 33.932* *, *** are statistically significant at 1%, 10% level the exports of indonesia and malaysia to asean and oic countries gdp in indonesian-case, the gdp for the exporting country could represent production capacity, whereas the gdp for the importing country (oic countries) may reflect the size of the market, which represents the potential demand for imports. a larger gdp for an exporting country implies a larger production capacity. on the other hand, a larger gdp for an importing country signifies potentially larger demand for imports. result shows that, gdp has a positive impact on indonesian export to oic countries which means that the high production capacity of indonesia is significant to increase export from indonesia to oic countries. in malaysian-case the result also give the same conclusion. thus, gdp has a positive impact on malaysian export to oic countries. distance in indonesian-case, distance has negative significant effect on indonesia’s export to oic countries. this means that, the longer distance the lessen export between indonesia and oic countries. therefore, gravity theory is proved. nevertheless, the influence of distance on bilateral trade between malaysia and the oic countries for malaysian-case is negative but insignificant. malaysia does not consider distance when export to oic countries. population including the populations of exporting and importing countries to see what is the effect of population on bilateral trade flows between two countries is possible by extending the basic theory of gravity model. matyas (1997) finds that population is significant to increase trade in term of the level of specialization in the extend to which producing gains from specialization. on the other hand, dell`ariccia (1999) argues a negative population coefficient. moreover, bergstrand (1989) argues that a negative relationship between population and trade flows suggesting that imports and exports are capital intensive in production. conversely, he interprets that, a positive relationship between population and trade flows shows that imports and exports are labor intensive. in indonesian as well as malaysian-case, the result shows that, the relationship between population and trade flow is negative which means that indonesian and malaysian exports to the oic countries are labor intensive. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 1, april 2016: 8-15 14 dummy of afta membership fta is legally binding agreement between two or more countries to reduce or eliminate tariffs and nontariff barriers to trade, and facilitate the cross border movement of goods and services between the areas of the parties. in this case, the free trade agreement is asean free trade area (afta). in indonesian-case, afta is positive significant to increase indonesian export to oic countries. this means that, for indonesian-case joining afta does not restrict indonesian export to the oic countries. in addition, in malaysian-case, joining afta does not have any effect on malaysian export to the oic countries. dummy of oic membership (religion) in indonesian case, oic has positive and significant effect on indonesian export. trade in islam is based on the islamic faith. muslim world, such as oic countries, has a tendency to trade each other to boost the islamic brotherhood relationship among fellow muslim countries. dummy oic represents dummy religion. this concept is inline with the theory which explain that, “the islamic guidelines of conducting trade activities are also affected by the limitation that the religion would impose on certain forms of trade and credit, which could considerably influence trade policies and consumer consumption behavior.” (mehanna et al., 2003). in malaysian-case, it is very hard to explain why dummy variable such as oic is not significant even the sign is positive. this result needs further research to explain the reason behind. conclusion indonesian case gdp trading partner is positively significant for indonesian export to oic countries. population of trading partner has negative effect on indonesian export to oic countries. distance variable confirms the theory of gravity model that is negative significant on indonesian export to oic countries. indonesian export to asean countries are still higher than indonesian export to oic but the impact of fta of asean is remain positive towards indonesian export to oic countries malaysian case gdp trading partner is positively significant for malaysian export. population of trading partner does not matter on malaysian export since its impact is insignificant. distance seems to have negative effect on export from malaysia to oic countries, even though it is insignificant. although it is insignificant, trade flow to asean countries is positive resulting negative impact on malaysian export to oic countries. recommendation indonesia and malaysia need to improve their trade to the oic member countries in order to increase economic growth and gain benefit from the member of trading group. indonesia and malaysia have initiated several trade agreements to the oic countries, with the expectation that they will eventually increase their exports to the oic countries. as our results do not generally support this intuition, indonesia and malaysia should be required to design a trade agreement in a way that could ultimately induce higher bilateral trade between indonesia; malaysia and the oic countries. to be specific, trade agreements should be designed to reduce transportation costs, as the major challenge for increasing indonesian and malaysian exports to the oic countries comes from their high transportation costs. noted that, indonesia; malaysia and the oic countries are located far away from each other, and the exports are generally low. references abidin, isz. (2012). “trade linkages between malaysia and the oic member countries: an empirical analysis on patterns, determinant factors, and prospects”. unpublished doctoral thesis. malaysia: universitas utara malaysia. bergstrand, j. (1989) in bergstrand, j. (1985), “the gravity equation in international regional integration and intra oic trade... (dyah titis kusuma wardani) 15 trade: some microeconomic foundations and empirical evidence,” review of economics and statistics, vol. 67 (august) pp. 474-481. bendjilali, b. (1997). “an intra-trade econometric model for oic member countries: a cross country analysis”. irti research papers, no.55. jeddah: irti, idb. carrère, c. (2003). revisiting the effects of regional trading agreements on trade flows with proper specification of the gravity model. etudes et documents, no.10, cerdi, université d’auvergne. carrère, c. (2006). “revisiting the effects of regional trade agreements on trade flows with proper specification of the gravity model.” european economic review, vol. 50, pp. 223– 247. cindoruk, s. (1992), “economic cooperation among oic countries and islamic common market,” journal of economic cooperation among islamic countries, vol. 13 (12) pp. 1-18. comcec (2001). “practical steps and possible consequences of establishing an is islamic common market,” paper presented at the seventh session of the comcec in istanbul, turkey, october 18-21. dell’ariccia, g., 1999, “exchange rate fluctuations and trade flows: evidence from the european union,” imf staff papers 46(3), pp. 315-334. dianniar, u. (2013). “the impact of free trade agreements on indonesia’s agricultural trade flows: an application of the gravity model approach.” unpublished master thesis. the hague, the netherlands. ghani gm. (2007). “do oic membership reduce trade?". journal of economic cooperation and development, vol. 28(4), pp. 39-62. gundogdu, as. (2009). “determinant of intra oic trade: policy or exchange rate”. journal of economic cooperation and development, vol. 30(3), pp. 1-42. jafari, y, ismail, ma, & kouhestani, ms. (2011). “determinants of trade flows among d8 countries: evidence from the gravity model”. journal of economic cooperation and development, vol. 32(3), pp. 21. lee, yfl., gohar, a. (2010). “trade and intraregional integration: is arab region a potential candidate for economic union”. journal of economic cooperation and development, vol. 31(3), pp. 67-82. matyas làszlò (1997) “proper econometric specification of the gravity model”. world economy, vol. 20 (3), pp. 363-368. mehanna, ra., sarieddine l., and llorens, j. (2003). “bilateral trade and islamic sects”. international business and economics research journal, vol. 2(3), pp. 45-54. papazoglou, c., pentecost, ej., & marques, h. (2006). “a gravity model forecast of the potential trade effects of eu enlargement: lessons from 2004 and path-dependency in integration. the world economy, vol. 29 (8), pp. 1077–1089. saddam, a. and kari, f. (2012). “size of economy, cost of transport and their impact on trade in gcc countries: evidence from qualitative and quantitative approaches”. journal of finance and investment analysis, vol. 1(3), pp. 137-169. sousa, cmp., martínez-lópez, fj., & coelho, f. (2012). “the determinants of export performance: a review of the research in the literature between 1998 and 2005. international journal of management reviews, vol. 10 (4), pp. 343–374. sohn, ch. (2005). “does the gravity model explain south korea’s trade flows?” the japanese economic review, vol. 56 (4), pp. 417-430. tinbergen, j. (1962). shaping the world economy: suggestions for an international economics policy. new york: the twentieth century fund. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 1, april 2018, hlm. 50-60 doi: 10.18196/jesp.19.1.2727 pendidikan, kesehatan dan pertumbuhan ekonomi regional di indonesia: pendekatan model panel dinamis aminuddin anwar fakultas ekonomi universitas islam indonesia ring road utara, condongcatur, depok, sleman, yogyakarta 55283, indonesia. e-mail korespondensi: aminuddin.anwar@uii.ac.id abstract: this study analyzes the contribution of human capital ie education and health to regional economic growth in indonesia. this study uses the regional level of the province as the unit of analysis with the timeframe from 2004 to 2014. development of economic growth model which is a dynamic model becomes a challenge for estimation of regression model, this study uses generalized method of moment (gmm) as an analytical tool to overcome bias which occurred on the model of economic growth. this study provides empirical evidence on the role of education and health to regional economic growth in indonesia. in addition, the estimation results also provide empirical results of conditional convergence with the contribution of human capital that is education and health as a determinant of convergence key words: education, health, economic growth, dynamic panel data jel classification: i25, i15, o47, c33 pendahuluan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang berkelanjutan menjadi salah satu tujuan utama dalam proses pembangunan ekonomi. capaian pertumbuhan ekonomi yang berkelanjutan tersebut dapat dicapai dengan meningkatkan sumber utama pertumbuhan ekonomi yang memiliki implikasi akumulatif. salah satu sumber utama tersebut adalah modal manusia. modal manusia menjadi salah satu bagian penting dalam pembangunan perekonomian suatu negara karena ketika memiliki modal manusia yang berkualitas akan memberikan kontribusi lebih besar bagi pembangunan ekonominya. secara teoritis menurut (schultz, 1961) modal manusia dapat dimaknai sebagai suatu konsep angkatan kerja dalam perspektif klasik mirip dengan suatu properti dan dikonseptualisasikan sebagai kapasitas produktif dari manusia yang jauh lebih besar dibandingkan dari semua kekayaan yang dimiliki bersama. konsep modal manusia memainkan peran utama dalam teori pertumbuhan ekonomi modern. pada tingkat ekonomi makro stok modal manusia memiliki peran penting bagi proses pertumbuhan ekonomi, pada tingkat mikro modal manusia dapat menjelaskan variasi dalam struktur upah dan distribusi upah antar individu dan kelompok. lebih lanjut modal manusia menurut (becker, 2006) didefinisikan sebagai pengetahuan, informasi, ide, keahlian dan kesehatan dari seorang individu. menurut (hanushek, 2013) kualitas tenaga kerja memiliki hubungan yang konsisten, stabil, dan kuat terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi tetapi hubungan pertumbuhan ekonomi tidak muncul sebagai hasil dari kualitas yang lebih tinggi melalui investasi sumber daya di sekolah-sekolah. hal utama yang menjadi penting bagi negara-negara berkembang ini adalah investasi mereka dalam pendidikan dasar dan menengah (becker, 2006). teori dasar dari model pertumbuhan endogen adalah fokus pada adanya peran dari modal pendidikan, kesehatan dan pertumbuhan ekonomi regional di indonesia… (aminudin anwar) 51 manusia yang dipelopori oleh (lucas, 1988) dan (romer, 1990). menurut (lucas, 1988) gagasan modal manusia tidak hanya memberikan efek internal tetapi memberikan efek lanjutan yaitu efek eksternal yang terlihat dari kondisi analisis agregat. menurut (bloom, canning, & sevilla, 2004) salah satu kritik dalam aplikasi model pertumbuhan ekonomi adalah tidak mempertimbangkan kesehatan sebagai bagian dalam model pertumbuhan ekonomi. lebih lanjut dijelaskan oleh (bloom et al., 2004) pekerja yang sehat secara fisik dan mental akan berpengaruh secara multidimesional sehingga akan meningkatkan produktifitasnya dan mendapatkan pendapatan yang lebih tinggi. jalur dari adanya kualitas pendidikan dan kesehatan adalah kemampuan dan keterampilan yang akan meningkatkan kapasitas untuk berproduksi selanjutnya mengembangkan kapasitas diri dalam meningkatkan kapasitas ekonomi suatu negara. ukuran keberhasilan investasi pada bidang pendidikan dan kesehatan dapat ditunjukkan pada hasil produktivitas yang dihasilkan oleh individu. menurut (hanushek & kimko, 2000), tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi dipengaruhi oleh gagasan dan penemuan, yang terkait dengan persediaan modal manusia baik melalui kegiatan penelitian dan pengembangan (r&d) atau melalui perilaku adopsi. perkembangan penelitian tentang pendidikan dan kesehatan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi telah banyak dilakukan sebelumnya. perkembangan tersebut meliputi pengembangan model, variabel dan alat analisis yang berbeda. penelitian awal yang berfokus pada pendidikan dilakukan oleh (mankiw, romer, & weil, 1992) menggunakan augmented solow growth model dengan modal manusia sebagai faktor produksi tambahan sementara itu dengan menerapkan model pertumbuhan endogen (lucas, 1988); (romer, 1990) juga menghubungkan modal manusia dan adopsi teknologi sebagai faktor penting dalam meningkatkan pertumbuhan. sementara itu, (benhabib & spiegel, 1994) misalnya telah menemukan adanya hubungan yang lemah antara pertumbuhan dan peningkatan sumber daya manusia diukur dalam hal pencapaian pendidikan. sementara itu penelitian dari (pritchett, 2001), menjelaskan bahwa terjadi variasi yang berbeda mengenai dampak pendidikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi hal tersebut dikarenakan lingkungan institusi, penawaran pekerja berpendidikan meningkat tetapi permintaan cenderung tetap, dan terjadi perbedaan kualitas pendidikan. kontribusi dari kesehatan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi ditunjukkan oleh beberapa penelitian seperti (aka & dumon, 2008) bukti empiris menunjukkan bahwa dinamika jangka panjang dari proses pertumbuhan dijelaskan oleh kesehatan masa lalu dan tingkat pendidikan. kontribusi dari (bloom et al., 2004) hasil utama kami adalah bahwa kesehatan yang baik memiliki efek positif, cukup besar, dan secara statistik signifikan pada output agregat. studi yang dilakukan (barro, 2013) menggunakan data antar negara menemukan bukti hubungan parsial antara pertumbuhan dan harapan hidup dimana ditunjukkan bahwa antara status kesehatan dan pertumbuhan ekonomi adalah positif. studi lain dari (knowles & owen, 1995) menggunakan data antar negara menunjukkan hubungan yang lebih kuat antara pendapatan per kapita dan modal kesehatan, dan pendapatan per kapita terahadap modal pendidikan. pada level daerah studi (li & huang, 2009) antar daerah di china menggunakan panel statis pada provinsi di china menemukan efek positif dari pendidikan dan kesehatan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di china untuk periode 1978-2005. (li & liang, 2010) antar negara di asia timur yang menemukan bahwa peran dari pendidikan dan kesehatan secara positif berpengaruh terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, tetapi peran dari kesehatan memiliki kontribusi yang lebih besar. 52 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 1, april 2018: 50-60 perkembangan yang cukup signifikan ditunjukkan tidak hanya secara hasil empiris tentang studi pertumbuhan ekonomi. beberapa perkembangan lanjutan memberikan kontribusi berupa metode estimasi yang berbeda. penelitian awal tentang modal manusia dan pertumbuhan ekonomi menggunakan data cross section dan metode ordinary least square yaitu (mankiw et al., 1992) dan (benhabib & spiegel, 1994). perkembangan lanjutan ditunjukkan oleh (aka & dumon, 2008) dengan metode time series, sementara itu model lanjutan yang digunakan beberapa penelitian selanjutnya adalah panel statis yaitu (barro, 1992), dan (barro, 2013). model dengan prinsip estimasi lanjutan yang merupakan model data panel dengan kondisi dinamis yaitu (knowles & owen, 1995), (islam, 1995), (caselli, esquivel, & lefort, 1996), (bond, hoeffler, & temple, 2001), (li & huang, 2009) dan (li & liang, 2010). penelitian di indonesia secara aplikatif menggunakan model dinamis pertumbuhan ekonomi sebagai model acuan untuk menganalisis konvergensi di indonesia yaitu (firdaus & yusop, 2009) pada level provinsi dan periode 1983-2003 dengan menggunakan metode general method of moments (gmm). penelitian (kharisma & saleh, 2013), menganalisis dispersi pendapatan serta menguji konvergensi absolute (absolute convergence) serta conditional convergence di 26 provinsi di indonesia selama periode 1984-2008 dengan model panel dinamis. penelitian ini secara spesifik melakukan analisis dalam konteks model dinamis dengan data panel untuk aplikasi regional provinsi di indonesia. penelitian ini mencoba memberikan analisis secara empiris kontribusi komposisi dari modal manusia yaitu pendidikan dan kesehatan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di indonesia. metode penelitian penelitian ini menggunakan data panel yang merupakan gabungan dari cross section dan time series untuk level provinsi di indonesia. data yang digunakan yaitu pada 33 provinsi di indonesia pada periode antara 2004 sampai 2014. secara umum penelitian empiris ini menggunakan data sekunder yang diambil dari badan pusat statistika. penelitian ini menggunakan variabel pertumbuhan ekonomi, indikator pendidikan, kesehatan, investasi dan pengeluaran pemerintah. definisi secara lebih jelas variabel-variabel tersebut dapat dijelaskan sebagai berikut: tabel 1 definisi operasional variabel variabel lambang satuan keterangan pertumbuhan ekonomi juta rupiah nilai pertumbuhan pdrb per kapita antara periode dan nilai output per kapita juta rupiah nilai pdrb per kapita riil. rasio investasi terhadap pdrb per kapita milyar rupiah total investasi (penanaman modal asing (pma) dan penanaman modal dalam negeri (pmdn)) per pdrb per kapita pendidikan tahun rata-rata lama sekolah penduduk usia 15 tahun keatas. kesehatan tahun perkiraan lama hidup rata-rata penduduk dengan asumsi tidak ada perubahan pola pendidikan, kesehatan dan pertumbuhan ekonomi regional di indonesia… (aminudin anwar) 53 variabel lambang satuan keterangan mortalitas menurut umur. rasio pertumbuhan penduduk dan tingkat tabungan. rasio rasio pertumbuhan penduduk dan tingkat tabungan (diasumsikan nilai adalah 0.05) pengeluaran pemerintah milyar rupiah nilai total pengeluaran pemerintah per pdrb per kapita sumber: penulis secara teoritis penelitian ini mengadopsi model augmented solow growth model yang dilakukan oleh (mankiw et al., 1992) yang dikembangkan oleh (knowles & owen, 1995) dan (li & liang, 2010) dengan menambahkan modal manusia dalam bentuk pendidikan dan kesehatan pada konteks data panel. model tersebut adalah sebagai berikut: dimana nilai adalah nilai adalah nilai log output perkapita adalah nilai kondisi awal log output perkapita, , , , dan dan adalah nilai log dari stok modal fisik per kapita, log dari pendidikan, log kesehatan dan rasio tabungan dan pertumbuhan penduduk dan desentralisasi fiskal. nilai merupakan indikator dari konvergensi beta, , , , dan merupakan nilai koefisien parameter estimasi untuk variabel modal fisik per kapita, log dari pendidikan, log kesehatan dan rasio tabungan dan pertumbuhan penduduk, dan pengeluaran pemerintah. nilai , dan merupakan nilai efek spesifik daerah, efek spesifik waktu dan nilai eror pada daerah dan waktu . metode estimasi yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah generalized method of moments (gmm). metode estimasi ini digunakan karena beberapa alasan utama yang muncul dalam melakukan estimasi. penggunaan metode regresi cross-section dalam model pertumbuhan (crosssection growth regression) dikritik oleh (ross & renelt, 1992) karena metode ini sangat sensitif terhadap variabel independen yang diikutsertakan dalam spesifikasi atau dengan kata lain parameter yang diestimasi nilainya berubah sangat signifikan ketika satu atau lebih variabel dimasukkan atau dikeluarkan dari dalam model. hal tersebut menunjukkan kemungkinan model terkena masalah omitted variabel bias. menurut (caselli et al., 1996) terdapat dua sumber dari inkonsistennya dalam penelitian empiris pertumbuhan ekonomi antar negara. pertama, perlakuan yang tidak tepat pada efek spesifik pada negara yang merepresentasikan perbedaan dalam hal teknologi atau selera sehingga memberikan kenaikaan pada bias adanya ommited variabel. adanya hal tersebut diasumsikan bahwa efek ommited variabel yang terjadi tidak berkorelasi dengan variabel yang berada di sebelah kanan persamaan, tetapi asumsi ini tentu melanggar karena sifat dinamis dari regresi pertumbuhan. kedua, terdapat argumen teoritis yang kuat bahwa setidaknya subset dari variabel penjelas harus diharapkan endogen. meskipun masalah ini umumnya diakui dalam literatur, beberapa upaya untuk mengendalikan hal ini telah dibuat. ada dua estimasi gmm yang umum digunakan untuk mengestimasi model autoregressif linier, yaitu first difference gmm dan system gmm. penelitian ini menggunakan modules pada stata 13.1 yaitu modules xtabond2. prosedur analisis menggunakan gmm memerlukan beberapa uji untuk menspesifikasikan model agar dapat memberikan hasil yang valid 54 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 1, april 2018: 50-60 dan konsisten yaitu model yang tidak terjadi korelasi serial pada eror dan instrumen yang digunakan secara keseluruhan pada model adalah valid. pengujian pertama untuk menilai kelayakan dari model dengan melihat hasil nilai dari ar (1) dan ar (2) yang merupakan nilai pvalues untuk first dan second order autocorrelated disturbance. test untuk ar (1) biasanya menolak hipotesis nol, tetapi indikator yang penting ditunjukkan oleh nilai dari ar (2). uji selanjutnya adalah sargan test atau hansen test terhadap overidentifying restriction yang menguji validatas variabel instrumen yang digunakan secara keseluruhan dengan menguji sampel yang analog dengan control moment yang digunakan. hipotesis nol dari uji ini adalah variabel instrument yang digunakan valid dan terdistribusi menurut chi square. dengan (j-k) derajat kebebasan. j adalah jumlah variabel instrument dan k adalah jumlah variabel penjelas. kelayakan model penelitian untuk mengestimasi model adalah apabila nilai probabilitas chi square mempunyai tingkat signifikasi lebih besar dari 0,1 atau 0,5 atau 0,01 maka menerima h0 atau dengan kata lain variabel instrument yang digunakan valid. hasil dan pembahasan analisis awal untuk memberikan gambaran kondisi dari hubungan antar variabel. berdasarkan hasil analisis korelasi pada tabel 2 ditunjukkan bahwa nilai positif dan signifikan ditunjukkan pada keseluruhan variabel tu , dan terhadap yang sesuai dengan harapan yang ditunjukkan terhadap hubungan antar variabel tersebut. tabel 2 matriks korelasi antar variabel 1.0000 0.3092 1.0000 (0.0000) 0.5949 0.1864 1.0000 (0.0000) (0.0007) 0.4478 0.1625 0.5377 1.0000 (0.0000) (0.0033) (0.0000) 0.0900 -0.0784 -0.0108 -0.0827 1.0000 (0.0634) (0.1577) (0.8458) 0.2024) 0.6177 0.6383 0.4006 0.4432 -0.0316 1.0000 (0.0000) (0.0000) (0.0000) (0.0000) (0.5489) keterangan: angka dalam kurung adalah (p-value) nilai korelasi antara terhadap investasi ( bernilai positif dan memiliki nilai korelasi sebesar 0.3092. nilai korelasi antara terhadap pendidikan ( bernilai positif dan memiliki nilai korelasi sebesar 0.5949, sementara terhadap kesehatan ( juga bernilai positif dan memiliki nilai korelasi sebesar 0.4478. nilai korelasi antara terhadap pertumbuhan penduduk ( bernilai positif dan memiliki nilai korelasi sebesar 0.0900. hal yang sama juga ditunjukkan pada hubungan terhadap pengeluaran pemerintah ( bernilai positif dan memiliki nilai korelasi sebesar 0.6177. secara keseluruhan ekspektasi kondisi dari hubungan antar variabel memberikan gambaran awal pendidikan, kesehatan dan pertumbuhan ekonomi regional di indonesia… (aminudin anwar) 55 tentang kondisi yang diharapkan pada penelitian ini. analisis lanjutan pada model ini dibagi menjadi dua bagian. pertama, hasil analisis estimasi model panel statis dengn pendekatan common effects (ce), random effect (re), dan fixed effect (fe). kedua, hasil analisis estimasi model panel dinamis dengan menggunakan generalized method of moments (gmm) yang dibagi menjadi difference gmm dan system gmm. analisis hasil regresi pertama ditunjukkan pada tabel 4. hal pertama yang dilakukan adalah menguji model terbaik antara ce, re dan fe. berdasarkan hasil uji spesifikasi model nilai p-value untuk uji lm memberikan hasil signifikan yang berarti antara model ce dan re model yang dipilih adalah re. pada uji kedua yaitu hausman test didapatkan nilai yang signifikan sehingga dapat disimpulkan bahwa modal fe lebih baik dibandingkan dengan model yang lain. berdasarkan hasil dari uji spesifikasi model menunjukkan bahwa model terbaik adalah fe, maka berdasarkan kolom fixed effect pada tabel 3 dapat dianalisis bahwa kontribusi modal manusia yaitu pendidikan ( ) dan kesehatan ( ) memiliki arah yang positif dan secara statistik signifikan pada level 1 persen. hal lain yang dapat ditunjukkan dari analisis dengan model fe adalah kontribusi positif dari pertumbuhan penduduk yang secara statistik signifikan pada level 1 persen. sementara itu, peran dari investasi fisik ( ) dan pengeluaran pemerintah ( tidak memiliki peran terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi karena secara statistik tidak signifikan. indikator lain yang dapat dijelaskan dari hal ini adalah terjadinya konvergensi pada model ini yang ditunjukkan pada nilai koefisien dari lag variabel pdrb per kapita ( yang secara statistik signifikan pada level 1 persen. tabel 3 model panel statis variables variabel dependen ( ) common effect random effect fixed effect 0.984*** 0.983*** 0.868*** (0.00451) (0.00512) (0.0235) 0.00106 0.000514 -0.00213 (0.00120) (0.00124) (0.00138) 0.0760*** 0.0786*** 0.297*** (0.0221) (0.0252) (0.0895) 0.0974 0.112 1.155*** (0.0596) (0.0698) (0.321) 0.00763 0.0140** 0.0262*** (0.00702) (0.00704) (0.00707) -0.00181 -0.00119 -0.00849 (0.00297) (0.00321) (0.00926) constant -0.353 -0.401 -4.188*** (0.225) (0.265) (1.254) lm test 18.88 prob > chibar2 0.000 hausman test 49.51 56 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 1, april 2018: 50-60 variables variabel dependen ( ) common effect random effect fixed effect prob>chi2 0.000 ftests 4.14 prob-f 0.000 obs. 326 326 326 r-squared 0.996 0.958 jumlah prov. 33 33 angka dalam kurung adalah standar eror, tanda *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. nilai koefisien yaitu memiliki nilai berdasarkan penjelasan diatas bahwa model panel data pada pertumbuhan ekonomi merupakan model dinamis dimana terdapat nilai lag dependen variabel pada sisi sebelah kanan. secara teoritis hal tersebut mengakibatkan kondisi yang bias jika tidak menggunakan alat analisis yang tepat. penelitian ini mengembangkan hal tersebut dengan menggunakan generalized method of moments (gmm) untuk mengatasi permasalahan yang muncul karena kondisi model pertumbuhan ekonomi yang dinamis. hasil dari regresi menggunakan model gmm ditunjukkan pada tabel 4. pada tabel 4 ditunjukkan beberapa spesifikasi model untuk mendapatkan model terbaik yang dapat merepresentasikan hasil yang terbaik dalam model. pada model gmm ditunjukkan model 1, 2, dan 3 yang merupakan identifikasi pada kondisi model. pada model 1 kondisi yang dilakukan yaitu dengan mengasumsikan bahwa keseluruhan independen variabel endogen kecuali tingkat pertumbuhan populasi sehingga harus diinstrumentasi sesuai dengan kondisi pada analisis gmm. model 2 mengasumsikan bahwa variabel lag variabel pdrb per kapita, investasi fisik, modal manusia untuk pendidikan dan kesehatan dan pendidikan diasumsikan endogen sehingga harus diinstrumentasi sesuai dengan kondisi pada analisis gmm. model 3 mengasumsikan bahwa hanya variabel lag variabel pdrb per kapita dan modal manusia untuk pendidikan dan kesehatan dan pendidikan yang diasumsikan endogen sehingga harus diinstrumentasi sesuai dengan kondisi pada analisis gmm. sebelum melakukan intepretasi hasil estimasi pada model gmm, hal pertama yang harus dilakukan adalah menguji kelayakan dari model gmm. pengujian kelayakan model gmm dilakukan untuk mendapatkan model yang valid yaitu model yang tidak terjadi korelasi serial pada eror dan instrumen yang digunakan secara keseluruhan pada model adalah valid. pengujian pertama untuk menilai kelayakan dari model dengan melihat hasil nilai dari ar (1) dan ar (2) yang merupakan nilai p-values untuk first dan second order autocorrelated disturbance. test untuk ar (1) biasanya menolak hipotesis nol, tetapi indikator yang penting ditunjukkan oleh nilai dari ar (2). berdasarkan output pada tabel 5 ditunjukkan bahwa nilai p-value dari ar (1) menunjukkan nilai yang signifikan tetapi fokus analisis berada pada ar (2), nilai ar (2) pada model difference gmm model 1 p-value 0.0064, model 2 nilai p-value 0.0058, dan model 3 nilai p-value 0.0053. berdasarkan hasil tersebut keseluruhan model difference gmm memiliki nilai p-value dibawah nilai alpha 5 persen maka dapat disimpulkan bahwa pada model difference gmm terjadi serial autokorelasi pada eror. sementara itu pada model system gmm dapat ditunjukkan bahwa nilai p-value dari ar (1), sementara itu nilai ar (2) pada model 1 nilai p-value 0.083, model 2 nilai p-value 0.022, dan model 3 nilai p-value 0.0091. berdasarkan hasil tersebut model 2 dan 3 pada system gmm mem pendidikan, kesehatan dan pertumbuhan ekonomi regional di indonesia… (aminudin anwar) 57 iliki nilai p-value dibawah nilai alpha 5 persen maka dapat disimpulkan bahwa pada model terjadi serial autokorelasi pada eror. nilai ar (2) pada model 1 menunjukkan nilai p-value diatas nilai alpha 5 persen sehingga dapat disimpulkan untuk model 1 system gmm tidak terjadi serial autokorelasi pada eror. uji kelayakan model yang kedua yaitu untuk menguji validitas dari instrumen yang digunakan dalam model. hasil output untuk sargan test pada model difference gmm menunjukkan bahwa pada model 1 nilai p-value 0.973, model 2 nilai p-value 0.714, dan model 3 nilai p-value 0.0545. berdasarkan hasil tersebut dapat disimpulakan bahwa instrumen yang digunakan pada model untuk keseluruhan model difference gmm valid. pada model system gmm nilai sargan test untuk model 1 nilai p-value 0.997, model 2 nilai pvalue 0.953, dan model 3 nilai p-value 0.269. berdasarkan hasil tersebut dapat disimpulkan bahwa instrumen yang digunakan pada model untuk keseluruhan model system gmm valid. berdasarkan uji kelayakan model maka model yang dapat diinterpretasikan adalah model yang tidak terjadi autokorelasi serial pada eror dan memiliki instrumen yang valid. disimpulkan bahwa kondisi dari keseluruhan model difference gmm tidak layak karena terjadi serial autokorelasi pada eror walaupun instrument yang digunakan valid. sementara itu, untuk model system gmm ditunjukkan bahwa pada model 2 dan 3 tidak layak karena terjadi serial autokorelasi pada eror walaupun instrument yang digunakan valid. model terbaik pada penelitian ini ditunjukkan pada model 1 untuk system gmm dimana tidak terjadi autokorelasi serial pada eror dan memiliki instrumen yang valid. tabel 4 model panel dinamis variables variabel dependen ( ) difference gmm system gmm (1) (2) (3) (1) (2) (3) 0.885*** 0.881*** 0.885*** 0.984*** 0.984*** 0.979*** (0.0303) (0.0317) (0.0324) (0.00499) (0.00530) (0.00626) -0.00312* -0.00337* -0.00436** 0.000986 0.00107 0.000263 (0.00177) (0.00180) (0.00189) (0.00134) (0.00146) (0.00145) 0.310*** 0.351*** 0.426*** 0.0716*** 0.0851*** 0.120*** (0.113) (0.121) (0.135) (0.0248) (0.0265) (0.0320) 1.243*** 1.264** 1.306** 0.127* 0.120 0.138 (0.477) (0.507) (0.522) (0.0740) (0.0801) (0.0917) 0.0220*** 0.0219*** 0.0204** 0.00788 0.00874 0.0102 (0.00813) (0.00816) (0.00827) (0.00775) (0.00786) (0.00785) -0.0119 -0.0147 -0.0213 -0.00180 -0.00234 -0.00160 (0.0124) (0.0130) (0.0137) (0.00331) (0.00342) (0.00342) constant -0.469* -0.462 -0.574* (0.281) (0.303) (0.341) obs. 285 285 285 326 326 326 jumlah prov. 32 32 32 33 33 33 58 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 1, april 2018: 50-60 variables variabel dependen ( ) difference gmm system gmm (1) (2) (3) (1) (2) (3) sargan test 186.1 185.4 176.6 208.9 201.7 189.2 p-value 0.973 0.714 0.0545 0.997 0.953 0.269 ar (1) -8.177 -8.186 -8.112 -5.204 -6.350 -7.542 p-value 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ar (2) 2.727 2.758 2.791 1.724 2.299 2.610 p-value 0.00639 0.00581 0.00526 0.0847 0.0215 0.00906 instrumen 231 203 154 276 244 185 angka dalam kurung adalah standar eror, tanda *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. nilai koefisien yaitu memiliki nilai hasil output estimasi model 1 untuk system gmm digunakan sebagai analisis karena kondisinya yang sesuai dengan kelayakan model. hal utama yang menjadi fokus kajian penelitian ini adalah kontribusi dari modal manusia yaitu pendidikan dan kesehatan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. berdasarkan hasil dari output dapat dianalisis bahwa nilai koefisien dari pendidikan ( ) memiliki nilai positif sebesar 0.0851 dan signifikan pada level 1 persen. kondisi yang sama terjadi pada nilai koefisien kesehatan ( ) dimana memiliki nilai positif sebesar 0.127 dan signifikan pada level 10 persen. berdasarkan hasil tersebut maka secara empiris dapat dibuktikan tentang peran penting dari modal manusia yaitu pendidikan dan kesehatan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di indonesia. hal ini sejalan dengan penelitian sebelumnya yang dilakukan oleh (knowles & owen, 1995) untuk analisis antar negara, (li & liang, 2010) antar negara di asia timur, dan (li & huang, 2009) untuk provinsi di china. temuan yang sejalan dengan penelitian ini di indonesia (kharisma & saleh, 2013) hanya menunjukkan peran dari pendidikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi sementara kesehatan secara statistik tidak signifikan. hal lain yang dapat dijelaskan dari hasil output tersebut adalah kontribusi sektor fisik dan peran pemerintah yaitu investasi fisik ( ), pertumbuhan penduduk, dan pengeluaran pemerintah ( ) yang memiliki nilai ecara statistik tidak signifikan. hal ini memberikan gambaran bahwa kontribusi sektor fisik tidak terlalu menjadi sesuatu yang dominan untuk pertumbuhan ekonomi yang lebih baik justru kontribusi sektor non-fisik seperti modal manusia akan memberikan nilai yang lebih baik. di sisi lain peran pemerintah melalui pendanaan pembangunan cenderung belum mampu untuk memberikan kontribusi. kecenderungan aktifitas pemerintah yang menggunakan alokasi dana untuk aktifitas rutin menjadi salah satu hal yang terjadi, seharusnya pemerintah mampu untuk mendukung pertumbuhan ekonomi dengan alokasi dana yang terorientasi pada sektor yang berimplikasi terhadap pembangunan ekonomi. konvergensi yang menjadi salah satu indikator dan merupakan efek lanjutan dari pertumbuhan ekonomi terjadi pada provinsi-provinsi di indonesia. hal tersebut ditunjukkan dari nilai lag pdrb per kapita ( ) yang memiliki nilai kurang dari 1 yaitu 0.984 dan secara statistik signifikan pada level 1 persen. hal ini membuktikan hipotesis konvergensi kondisional dimana daerah yang memiliki tingkat pertumbuhan awal yang rendah dapat mengakumulasi proses pertumbuhannya dan mempu untuk mengejar daerah yang awalnya maju. implikasinya adalah daerah yang maju akan memiliki kecepatan konvergensi pendidikan, kesehatan dan pertumbuhan ekonomi regional di indonesia… (aminudin anwar) 59 sebesar 1.613 persen dan daerah yang pertumbuhan awalnya rendah akan dapat mengejar separo dari kondisinya tersebut dalam waktu 42.97 tahun. kontribusi positif dari pendidikan dan kesehatan dalam model konvergensi kondisional tersebut juga memiliki implikasi bahwa faktor yang mampu untuk meningkatkan akselerasi pertumbuhan ekonomi tersebut terdapat pada pendidikan dan kesehatan. hal ini sejalan dengan penelitian sebelumnya yaitu (firdaus & yusop, 2009) dan (kharisma & saleh, 2013) yang juga menemukan hal yang sama terhadap terbuktinya hipotesis konvergensi pada provinsi di indonesia. simpulan kontribusi modal manusia sebagai penentu pertumbuhan pada level provinsi di indonesia secara empiris terbukti. hal tersebut ditunjukkan oleh nilai positif variabel pendidikan dan kesehatan. indikasi ini menunjukkan bahwa peran sentral modal manusia menurut teori pertumbuhan endogen terbukti di indonesia. hal ini seharusnya menjadi perhatian bagi pengambil kebijakan untuk meningkatkan investasi pada sektor pendidikan dan kesehatan sehingga mampu untuk meningkatkan pembangunan ekonomi di indonesia. terjadinya konvergensi kondisional secara empiris terbukti pada level provinsi di indonesia. hal ini memberikan gambaran bahwa daerahdaerah yang dianggap sebagai daerah yang awalnya memiliki kondisi pertumbuhan rendah dapat mengakselerasi pertumbuhan ekonominya sehingga mampu untuk mengejar daerah-daerah yang awalnya maju. kontribusi dari pendidikan dan kesehatan dalam kondisi konvergensi secara positif berperan, yang berarti pendidikan dan kesehatan menjadi faktor utama 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(1961). investment in human capital. the american economic review, 51(1), 1–17. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 2, oktober 2018, hlm. 116-133 doi: 10.18196/jesp.19.2.5003 the impact of jamkesmas on healthcare utilization in eastern regions of indonesia: a propensity score matching method novat pugo sambodo erasmus school of health policy and management, erasmus universiteit rotterdam research associate pusat kebijakan pembiayaan dan manajemen asuransi kesehatan, medical faculty universitas gadjah mada jl. farmako, sekip utara, yogyakarta 55281 correspondence e-mail: pugosambodo@gmail.com received: september 2018; accepted: october 2018 abstract: underutilization of health care for the poor is one critical problem in indonesia. out of pocket share is dominant on overall health financing. therefore, it is plausible that low demand of modern healthcare services mainly relates to financial aspect. in 2008, the government of indonesia has introduced health insurance schemes for the poor to help them overcome the problem of medical costs barrier called jamkesmas (social health insurance). this paper examines the impact evaluation of jamkesmas to health care utilization in eastern indonesia. data are drawn from indonesia family life survey east (ifls-east) that held in 2012. this data only covers the eastern regions of indonesia that widely known has relatively lower performance in development and infrastructure. moreover, this study employs propensity score matching (psm) approach to analyse the data. the results show that average treatment effect for treated group are positive for outpatient utilization. in addition, availability of the healthcare facility variables, travelling time and distance to district capital are factors that determine jamkemas coverage in eastern indonesia. keywords: social health insurance, healthcare utilization, impact evaluation jel classification: i13, i15, h43 introduction underutilization of health care for the poor is one critical problem in indonesia. according to somanathan (2008), out of pocket share during 1995 to 2004 was between 60-70% on overall health financing. therefore, it is plausible that low demand of modern healthcare services mainly relates to financial aspect (somanathan 2008, p. 1). hence, government of indonesia (goi) tries to reform social safety nets in order to protect the most vulnerable family in the hardship situation, i.e. economics crises in 1997 and 2008. goi has introduced various health insurance schemes for the poor to help them overcome the problem of medical costs barrier. health insurance in indonesia had been gone through several evolutions. it started with dana sehat in 1969, jaminan pemeliharaan kesehatan masyarakat (jpkm) in 1992, and health card in 1994. after that, it was followed by social safety nets or jaring pengaman sosial (jps) which was introduced to mitigate the impact of asian financial crisis in 1997-1998. then, the goi initiated asuransi kesehatan untuk masyarakat miskin (askeskin) in 2005-2007, and finally it is replaced by jaminan kesehatan masyarakat (jamkesmas)1 in 2008 (vidyatama et al. 2014). jamkesmas is a social assistance for healthcare that is provided for the poor and those who cannot afford the healthcare fee. goi has allocated around 500 million usd or around 20% of all social assistance budget to funding jamkesmas program. in addition, 1to avoid any confusion, there is also jamkesda which is a similar insurance but the regulation and coverage are under district or city local government responsibility. the impact of jamkesmas on healthcare utilization… (novat pugo sambodo) 117 ministry of health appointed to implement this program starting from 2008 until early 2014. currently, bpjs (social security agency) program substitutes jamkesmas with broader coverage, i.e. not only for the poor. however, the lesson from jamkesmas implementation remains relevant and valuable for policy analysis. there have been many studies evaluating health insurance program in indonesia. the latest study by vidyatama et al. (2014) finds that health insurance owner 8% more likely using healthcare service when falling sick and it becomes 5% if people who are not sick are included in the estimation. other study tries to contrast the effect of askeskin and non-askeskin (aji et al. 2013). their research finding supports the argument of financial barrier; both types of health insurance program can decrease out of pocket payment. distance and location factors also have a significant influence on healthcare utilisation, especially for rural community. in contrast, people living in urban community are less sensitive to distance, but relatively more sensitive to medical fee (erlyana et al. 2011). in brief, contributions of this paper have three points. first, this paper gives more attention to eastern region of indonesia than try to get national level studies. most previous studies on the health insurance impact evaluation in indonesia have a limitation on capturing geographical aspect and eastern indonesia focus. nevertheless, this region is relatively lacking in many social development indicators as compared to the western regions. furthermore, indonesia statistic office reported that 70% of underdeveloped districts are located in eastern indonesia. it hopes give more understanding of jamkesmas implementation than get only general idea of national level. second, this study also includes more variables such as travel time, distance and availability of service variables. unlike other datasets such as susenas and riskesdas used by vidayatama et.al (2014), and sparrow et.al (2013), ifls-east has a possibility to merge between individual and household information with community or village data. ifls-east data is the newest ifls since the previous ifls, ifls 4 taken in 2007. thus, this paper expect more update information as compared with other paper using previous ifls data like ifls 3 (erlyana et al. 2011) or ifls 1 and ifls 2 (hidayat et al. 2010). this paper aims to analyse the impact of jamkesmas on healthcare utilization in eastern part of indonesia. with this objective, the study attempts to answer two research questions: (1) does jamkesmas significantly help the poor household to increase their health care utilization when falling ill? (2) is there any difference of household choice preference between the public and the private health services given variables in the model? the following part of this essay briefly describes indonesian health insurance from reform from 1998 (after economic crisis) with social safety net (ssn) until recent implementation of social security agency (bpjs). section 3 outlines some characteristics of data we use in this research. empirical challenge and methodology to deal with those challenges will be discussed in section 4. section 5 discusses the result of this study and discussion. a final section highlights what this paper main finding and policy implication that we can make given the result from this paper. reform in indonesian social insurance recently the government of indonesia (goi) has set an ambition to have every citizen covered by insurance. goi initiated social security agency or badan penyelenggara jaminan sosial (bpjs) in 2014. it is a part of the implementation of national social security system law 2004 no. 40 and social security agency law 2011 no. 24. the law is introduced as a response of a rigid limitation in the insurance coverage that could only reach people with formal employment status. these insurances include aspen, askes, jamsostek and asabri. hence, the ultimate goal of bpjs is to expand the coverage and improve the service to its beneficiaries. 118 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan vol. 19, no. 2, oktober 2018: 116-133 before jamkesmas is implemented, indonesia has a long experience in providing insurance to its citizens, see figure 1. in 1998 indonesia introduced jaring pengaman sosial or social safety net as a response of economic crisis. the intention of this program is to protect the poor from economic turbulence during this asian financial crisis 1997-1998. shrinking indicators, like a massive decline of unemployment rate, high inflation and socio-politic crisis, make the poor more vulnerable. as part of jps, a health card program is introduced to poor households to waive the fee to access the public healthcare provider, i.e. public health centre (puskesmas) and public hospital. in 2005 the goi attempted to reform the social health insurance with broader beneficiaries. the government introduced askeskin (health insurance for the poor) with the goal to expand the coverage to the informal sector workers that had not been covered by the existing insurances. afterwards, the goi appointed ministry of health to manage the financial aspect of askeskin because there had been many requests for evaluation and improvement. then, it was renamed to jamkesmas in 2008. in this program, the near poor group was included as eligible recipient. furthermore, to standardize with the establishment of national social assistance, the goi incorporated jamkemas under national health insurance (jkn); jamkesmas is managed by bpjs. with this merger, all jamkesmas’s members automatically become member of national health insurance program under bpjs. according to harimurti et.al. (2013), there are several changes in jamkesmas compared to askeskin. first, the insurance fee is higher, it increases between idr 5,000 to idr 6,500 per individual per month. second, jamkesmas only gives the limited basic package with some specific exclusions of benefit and no cost-sharing. however, the member may get an extended package as add-in. another benefit of jamkesmas is that the medicine is covered with prescribed evidence. jamkesmas holders can exercise the insurance in puskesmas, public hospital and some registered private hospital (harimurti et.al 2013, p.14). according to world bank background paper (world bank 2012), the official number of jamkesmas recipients in 2010 approximately 74.6 million people. in term of budget, the average cost of health services utilized per card is rp6,250, while the administrative cost itself is rp9,362 (us$ 0.9). moreover, this report also shows that jamkesmas successfully cover around 41% of poor household. to manage the implementation, ministry of health works together with public hospitals and local health centers as service providers and fee claims. bpjs regulates the eligibility and targeting. pt askes handles the card production and distribution. ministry of finance is responsible for financing the disbursement. local government also has a role to distribute jamkesmas cards, provide sufficient socialization and undertake monitoring and evaluation. source: author‟s estimation based on vidyatama et.al. (2014) figure 1. evolution of health insurance in indonesia the impact of jamkesmas on healthcare utilization… (novat pugo sambodo) 119 research method data this paper utilizes the ifls-east 2012 (sikoki et al. 2013), which is the first survey that specifically covers the eastern provinces of indonesia that have never been surveyed by 4 previous ifls. it covers the information in individual, household and community level. there are seven provinces surveyed: kalimantan timur, nusa tenggara timur, maluku, maluku utara, papua, papua barat, and sulawesi tenggara. moreover, ifls-east data involves 99 villages consisting of 3,159 and 2,547 households. within these households, 10,887 individuals are interviewed (satriawan et al. 2014). the richness of information presented in this dataset supports the analysis, thus leading to better estimates in explaining the independent variables. ifls-east data is accessible at this url <http://surveymeter.org/research/3/iflseast>. this study exercises some dependent variables, including outpatient variables for total, public health centres and private health services. this paper also tries to capture the impact of jamkesmas on inpatient utilization. similar to outpatient outcome, it also classifies both public and private. using the household expenditure dataset from ifls, this paper constructs the out of pocket variables and the catastrophic health expenditure incident if the health expenditure of the household exceeds 15% of its total. the fundamental interest of this program evaluation study is to investigate the real impact of jamkesmas on the main outcome. however, we face some empirical challenges in the data. first, it is required to estimate the outcomes that capture the “true” difference between the impact of jamkesmas to the treated group and the untreated group. this cannot be done by simply estimating the outcome, like the outpatient and inpatient service utilization or health expenditure variable of people with and without jamkesmas. that naive approach is not sufficient to capture the causal effect relationship between program and outcomes. hence, the main challenge for this impact evaluation study is to get the counterfactual group in the data. each household needs to get match comparison with other household with same characteristic before get the program. second, the allocation of jamkesmas is based on the eligibility determined by indonesian ministry of health, and certainly it is not selected randomly. jamkesmas is only provided for the poor and the non-poor. hence, measuring the outcome with simple ordinary least square could produce a bias estimation. this is because there is also a possibility that some poor and near poor households who are eligible, but they do not receive the benefit of jamkesmas. these eligible households have a tendency to have less utilization, even if they hold a health insurance. if the randomness of data is satisfied, we could make an estimation with other estimation model, such as randomized selection, regression discontinuity and difference-in-difference. however, since the randomness is not satisfied, the ifls-east dataset is a cross-sectional data. lastly, we assumed that the eligibility of jamkesmas are observable in variables contained in ifls-east dataset. in this non-ideal condition, there is one method that can solve the counterfactual group problem. it is by looking the counterfactual group within dataset that has a similar or exact characteristic of the treated group, except the fact that they get the insurance. this can be done by using the exact match propensity score matching (psm).according to rosenbaum & rubin (1983), propensity score which is also known as balancing score, represent the conditional probability of observation that will be given a treatment based on the definite pretreatment specification. furthermore, the fundamental reason of psm is the absence of experimental framework of program and allocation of program in non-random setting. then, the difference of treatment group and control group is not only in their status in program as a receiver, but also on the other characteristics 120 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan vol. 19, no. 2, oktober 2018: 116-133 that might impact on the outcome. this bias can be avoided if we can get the corresponding similar households or individuals. after estimating the outcome of both groups, we then compare those outcomes. the average difference outcome of treated and untreated groups allows us to get impact of the program on beneficiaries. psm approach has tree steps in order to get the average impact of the treatment. first, we need to estimate the probability of households in datasets who are receiving jamkesmas. this is based on several selected control variables, which are observable. in this step, we can utilize logit or probit estimation. both estimates only have minor difference, and the selection is based on the researcher‟s adjustment. in this study, the logit method is used. the next step is to limit our analysis only for households that have a range of common supports. then, after obtaining the range of common support for each treatment group, we pair them with the untreated household having the same or the closest balancing score. finally, in the last step we produce the average treatment effect on the treated group (att) by acquiring the average difference of expected outcome (outpatient, inpatient, health spending) from people with and without jamkesmas. based on jamkesmas and datasets characteristics, this research prefer to use psm model that also used by sparrow et al. (2013) and pradhan et al. (2004) for askeskin and health card program, respectively. as an extension of their work, this paper is to add more specific information data on the community infrastructure, travel time or distance, and availability of healthcare facility characteristic both public and private healthcare provider. the matching model using logit estimation is shown as follow: ( ) (1) equation (1) is the matching model, where yi is an outcome of household probability that is covered by jamkesmas (pr (yi=1)) i.e y=1 if yes and y=0 if no. in this logit estimation (equation 1) there are some variables that are included in the control variables. the variables in the category αind represent factors attached to person in demographic categories such as age, sex, years of education, education level, marital status, while the category αhh represents the household level characteristics, such as education of household head, whether of household head is female and household expenditure (food, non-food and medical expenditure). variables in the category αfas include the availability of the supply sides, such as the availability of health center facilities, tools availability and number of staff. the category αcomm comprises of community characteristics, such as geographical and infrastructure variables. this research also gives more attention in this aspect as the sample relatively lacks in infrastructure. furthermore, self-reported illness is not included in these covariates. it is because the inclusion of self-reported illness could lead us to a selection bias because the probability for people who are sick and actively looking for jamkesmas is relatively high. this is also related that rich people has more tendency to report their illness rather than the poor. this research employs the five nearestneighbours matching approach to match the treated group with the control group. the matching is based on the propensity score. after this process, the difference between those two groups is possible to calculate. to estimate the average impact of a treatment for a household that get jamkesmas in notation 𝑝𝑠𝑚, we determine the disparity between the expected outcome of the treatment group and the expected outcome of the non-treated group as mentioned earlier. in mathematical notation, this can be expressed as follow (see sparrow et.al 2013): 𝑝𝑠𝑚=𝐸 (𝑦𝑖𝐴=1, s=1) −𝐸 (𝑊𝑖𝑦𝑖𝐴=0, s=1) (2) in equation (2), (𝑦𝑖𝐴=1, s=1) is the expected outcome of household groups who receive the impact of jamkesmas on healthcare utilization… (novat pugo sambodo) 121 jamkesmas (a=1) and having a common support (s=1) as conditional requirement. then, e (𝑊𝑖𝑦𝑖𝐴=0, =1) shows the potential outcome of „artificial‟ control groups based on the propensity score that do not have jamkesmas (a=0) and have common support (s=1). we denote the weight estimated balancing score. result and discussion jamkesmas coverage table 3 shows the experiment result of jamkesmas coverage that has been classified into rural and urban groups, quartiles as well as gender. it is to be noted that this table is in individual level. even though the allocation might not be entirely received by the targeted groups, quartile 1 and quartile 2 still have the highest percentage of people holding the insurance, i.e. 52.61% and 43.21%, respectively. this pattern indicates that jamkesmas has reached the target that is the poor and the near poor group. however, there is an indication that jamkesmas is utilized by unintended groups, i.e. quartile 3 and quartile 4. this means that there is leakage of jamkesmas allocation in eastern region of indonesia. this finding is similar with a study done by sparrow et al. (2013) and vidyatama et.al (2014) in the national level case. in addition, more people in the rural area take the benefit of jamkesmas rather than the urban counterparts. around 44.71% of people in the rural area who receive jamkesmas, while only 22.86% of urban people who receive jamkesmas. another finding is that there is no significant difference of allocation for male or female groups. they are equally likely to receive jamkesmas. source: author‟s calculation based on ifls-east 2012 figure 2. targeting of jamkesmas coverage in 2012 table 1. utilization and health spending for household with or without jamkesmas holder household with no jamkesmas holder household with jamkesmas holder total outpatient 0.163 0.176 0.168 public 0.086 0.122 0.101 private 0.068 0.050 0.061 inpatient 0.044 0.035 0.040 public 0.037 0.034 0.036 private 0.015 0.007 0.012 out of pocket health expenditure (%) 1.539 0.861 1.267 catastrophic health spending (more than 15% of total expenditure) (%) 0.020 0.007 0.015 source: author‟s estimation based on ifls-east 2012 122 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan vol. 19, no. 2, oktober 2018: 116-133 table 1 exhibits a naïve comparison between household with and without jamkesmas with regards to the utilization of healthcare service, out of pocket expenditure and catastrophic health incidence. this table is based on the household level data. jamkesmas’s holder has a slightly higher average of visitation than household with no jamkesmas. the value of 0.176 means that 17.6% of household with jamkesmas is reported to access modern healthcare (either public or private) in the past 4 weeks. the difference gets bigger in public healthcare provider, which is 0.122 for jamkesmas holder and only 0.086 for nonjamkesmas household. this pattern differs from the case of outpatient private healthcare; the average number of people go to private healthcare provider is larger for nonjamkesmas household. in terms of spending, out of pocket health expenditure for nonjamkesmas household is relatively higher, and that is almost double. similarly, catastrophic health incidence spending is also higher for nonjamkesmas household, though the value is very small. in general, it can be inferred that with this naïve analysis the utilization of healthcare is higher for the jamkesmas holder and they pay less health spending. in propensity score matching analysis, there are two properties that must be satisfied. first, there should be enough common support in balancing the treated and the untreated group. second, the balancing properties are satisfied. estimation on the propensity score shown in the table 6 on the appendix consists of 54 propensity score estimated for each variable. using logit estimation, the probability of household getting jamkesmas coverage is calculated. some variables show a positive coefficient, which means that it has higher probability to receive jamkesmas. for example, unconditional cash transfer (bbm blt) is introduced as the compensation of subsidy cut on fuel; this might be the same eligibility requirement between jamkesmas and blt. other variables that also indicate a positive coefficient are the size of household, the accessibility to clean water, the accessibility to piped water, the private clinic‟s accessibility to water, and the residency of household in rural area unexpected positive sign appears from group that has far proximity with hospital. this means that the longer travel time might positively correlates with the probability to get jamkesmas. there are also positive sign variables, although they are not statistically significant, that are interesting to note. there are private clinics that provide health check-up examination services. many villages have public transport facilities, and their main road is made from asphalt. we expect that improving availability and infrastructure might broaden the allocation of jamkesmas. in contrast, there are variables that can significantly reduce the probability of jamkesmas coverage. variables, like askes, jamsostek and company insurance, have a negative sign and they are significant. this shows that households having other kind of insurance are less likely to receive jamkesmas. moreover, variables related to household assets, such asthe size of house (m2) and the vehicle ownership also reduce the probability of jamkesmas coverage. this is desirable because the richer households should have less probability to be covered by jamkesmas. interestingly, if one of the household members working in the government office, their propensity score is significantly lower. this could be because they are automatically covered by askes. moreover, the variable of the distance of village capital to district capital in kilometres has a negative value. this result is expected. other distance and travel time related variables also have a negative sign, but not significant. the availability of private clinics is determined by many variables. it is predicted that these variables have a positive sign. the accessibility of clean water is positive and significant. however, there is a variable that has a negative sign, i.e. the availability of dental service in private clinic. in the first property of balancing common support, psm analysis does not obtain lack of the impact of jamkesmas on healthcare utilization… (novat pugo sambodo) 123 common support. table 9 in the appendices reveals range of common support based on the number of observation whether it is off support or on support. in this table there are 36 out of 1953 are off support. it means 36 observation of treated group does not have match comparison group and dropped as a consequences. meanwhile in the figure 2 distribution of the propensity score for treatment and control group, it shows the overlap pattern and also present how each group of treated are compared with some group of control (untreated). furthermore in this matching step, 5 nearest neighborhood matching technique is employed. in the balancing properties in table 10 in the appendices, we can see that there are some variables do not satisfy balancing property. it means some of the differences between treated and control groups are large in those variables indicated by t-test show significant result. the author try to make some changes in the covariates by make some interaction variable but the significant feature in the t-test are unchanged. as a consequence, we need to get the new set of covariates that satisfied balancing properties. due to the time constraint, author will limit the analysis here and will update with the newest balanced set of controls. impact of jamkesmas on healthcare utilization and healthcare expenditure table 2 shows the result of the estimated impact of jamkesmas on healthcare utilization using propensity score matching method. in general, jamkesmas’ holders has a higher probability of using modern healthcare outpatient service than those without jamkesmas. for total level, there is 2.9% of difference between the treated groups with the controlled groups. the probability of jamkesmas’ holders using public healthcare facility is slightly higher, that is 3.6% difference. hence, this shows how jamkesmas could significantly impact the outpatient service usage. table 2. estimated impact of jamkesmas on healthcare utilization and health expenditure (psm) outpatient inpatient out of pocket expenditure catastrophic health spending (more than 15% of total expenditure) variables all public private all public private total 0.0290* 0.0359*** -0.0053 0.0127* 0.0103 0.0036 -0.0395 0.0000 0.0154 0.0130 0.0103 0.0076 0.0085 0.0044 0.2416 0.0090 quartile 1 0.0217 0.0177 0.0008 -0.0031 -0.0042 0.0043 -0.2009 0.0083 0.02748 0.02306 0.01779 0.01279 0.01376 0.00429 0.33174 0.00583 quartile 2 0.0039 0.0067 -0.0041 0.0274 0.0301* -0.0001 -0.1645 -0.0156 0.0318 0.0266 0.0220 0.0137 0.0173 0.0061 0.3936 0.0173 quartile 3 0.0505 0.0545** 0.0105 0.0038 0.0029 -0.0014 -0.1454 0.0063 0.0318 0.0277 0.0208 0.0173 0.0207 0.0114 0.5257 0.0213 quartile 4 0.0647 0.0251 0.0310 0.0338 0.0258 0.0080 0.8784 0.0253 0.0400 0.0339 0.0297 0.0259 0.0269 0.0108 0.7853 0.0245 rural 0.0298* 0.0183 0.0119 0.0139* 0.0133 0.0024 -0.1030 -0.0024 0.0173 0.0144 0.0115 0.0079 0.0088 0.0029 0.2691 0.0085 urban 0.0221 0.0576** -0.0272 0.0130 0.0136 0.0033 -0.2923 -0.0034 0.0290 0.0286 0.0183 0.0200 0.0221 0.0131 0.4442 0.0181 robust standard errors in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, *p<0.1 source: author‟s calculation based on ifls-east 2012 124 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan vol. 19, no. 2, oktober 2018: 116-133 as we can see in table 3, outcome of inpatient service utilization affected only in total level. the coefficient means that jamkesmas’s holder has a bigger probability with around 1.3 higher, but it is not statistically significant for public and private categories. decomposition in the quartile groups shows no considerable difference. it is expected that the two lowest quartiles get the most of impact. however, the result does not meet this expectation. moreover, the out of pocket health expenditure has a negative difference, although it is not statistically significant across the groups. similar average treatment effect pattern also happens for the catastrophic health spending incidence. this finding is similar with the result from suryanto et.al (2013) using previous ifls 3, ifls 4, susenas 2009 and 2010 that health cost assistance to the poor has no significant influence on reducing catastrophic health expenditure. the one reason to explain is because the informal sector and who poor reducing their health related expenses and decide to use traditional or even inappropriate method. furthermore, the rural households who receive jamkesmas have a higher probability to use the healthcare service in total level, both outpatient and inpatient service. however, this finding is different with the urban household receive jamkesmas. the impact only occurs in the public outpatient service, but it has a bigger magnitude with 5.6% att. conclusion the aim of this study is to investigate the impact of jamkesmas on health care utilization of in eastern indonesia using ifls-east data. the prior knowledge of about eastern indonesia is they are relatively less developed than western part of indonesia. thus, they need more attention given their lack of infrastructure and health facilities and staff. we expect that jamkesmas could reduce those barrier to access health services, with better targeting with better impact. moreover, allocation of jamkesmas is more likely goes to quantile 1 and 2 of income group. it reflects that jamkesmas program that are received by people targeted as eligibility criteria that jamkesmas for the poor and near poor. however, there is still some leakage with people in quartile 3 and 4 still get this health insurance. in addition, propensity score evaluation shows that people with longer distance and travelling time between village capital and district capital and health facilities like puskesmas and private health provider has a less probability to get covered by jamkesmas. in contrast with distance, if the availability of the public health centre in that village is better, the higher probability of household participates in jamkesmas program. as a main purpose of this study, results show that in general utilization in general in general, jamkesmas’s holder has a bigger probability to utilize in healthcare service especially for public health center but only in outpatient. inpatient is not statistically significant impacted by jamkesmas in public or private groups but in total level. furthermore, jamkesmas has no significant impact on health spending both out of pocket expenditure and the probability of catastrophic health spending incidence. within those findings, however, we need to note some point that some factors might affect utilization of jamkesmas which are not captured in the model. for example, the shock of when people is get chronic illness which will increase possibility for household to looking for jamkesmas after get chronic condition. this study finds distance and travelling time variables are significant variables to reduce jamkesmas coverage in eastern region of indonesia. thus, improving more infrastructure or provision of transportation will help household participation in health insurance and health care utilization to get less time in travelling. the impact of jamkesmas on healthcare utilization… (novat pugo sambodo) 125 references aji, b., de allegri, m.d., souares, a., and sauerborn, r. (2013). the impact of health insurance programs on out-of-pocket expenditures in indonesia: an increase or a decrease?. international journal of environmental research and public health, 10(7), 2995-3013. erlyana, e., damrongplasit, k.k., and melnick, g. (2011). expandinghealth insurance to increase health care utilization: will it have different effects in rural vs urban areas?. health policy, 100, 273–81. government regulation number 40 year 2004 concerning national social security system (republic of indonesia). government regulation number 24 year 2011 concerning national social security agency (republic of indonesia). harimurti, p., pambudi, e., pigazzini, a and tandon, a. (2013). the nuts and bolts of jamkesmas, indonesia‟s government-financed health coverage program for the poor and near-poor, the world bank, unico studies series 8, washington. viewed 4 june 2015, <http://wwwwds.worldbank.org/external/default/ wdscontentserver/wdsp/ ib/2013/03/25/000333037_20130325130 647/rendered/pdf/749960revised00 00public00indonesia1.pdf>. hidayat, b., and pokhrel, s. (2010). the selection of an appropriate count data model for modelling health insurance and health care demand: case of indonesia, international journal of environmental research and public health, 7(1), 927. satriawan, e., priebe, j., prima, r.a., and howell, f. (2014). an introduction into the ifls-east 2012: sampling, questionnaires, maps and socio-economic background characteristics, tnp2k (tim nasional percepatan penanggulangan kemiskinan). viewed 16 march 2015, <http://www.tnp2k.go.id/images/ uploads/downloads/wp%2011a%20intro duction%20to%20ifls%20east%202012. pdf>. sikoki, b., witoelar, f., strauss j., meijer, e., and suriastini n.w. (2013). indonesia family life survey east 2012: user's guide and field report. yogyakarta: survey meter. somanathan, a. (2008). the impact of price subsidies on child health care use: evaluation of the indonesian healthcard. viewed 20 march 2015, <https:// openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstrea m/handle/10986/6682/wps4622.pdf?se quence=1>. sparrow, r., suryahadi a., and widyanti, w. social health insurance for the poor: targeting and impact of indonesia‟s askeskin programme. social science & medicine, 96, 264–71. suryanto, b.a., mukti, a.g., kusnanto, h., and satriawan, e. (2015). the role of health insurance, borrowing and aids to pay for health care on reducing catastrophic health expenditure in indonesia. viewed 4 june 2015, http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf m?abstract_id=2586648. vidyatama, y., miranti, r., and resosudarmo, b.p. (2014). the role ofhealth insurance membership in health service utilization in indonesia. bulletin of indonesian economic studies 50(3), 393-413. world bank. (2012), jamkesmas health service fee waiver social assistance program and public expenditure review, world bank background paper, viewed 4 june 2015,http://www.wds.worldbank.org /external/default/wdscontentserver/ wdsp/ib/2012/03/06/000356161_2012 0306010803/rendered/pdf/673120wp 00publ0background0paper0040.pdf. 126 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan vol. 19, no. 2, oktober 2018: 116-133 appendices table 3. utilization of outpatient and inpatient at public and private health facility, ifls east 2012 outpatient inpatient all public private all public private quartile 1 (poorest) 0.137 0.090 0.041 0.023 0.023 0.003 quartile 2 0.170 0.108 0.061 0.038 0.038 0.006 quartile 3 0.180 0.106 0.056 0.042 0.034 0.014 quartile 4 (richest) 0.191 0.089 0.098 0.068 0.052 0.029 urban 0.170 0.106 0.055 0.062 0.049 0.022 rural 0.165 0.094 0.064 0.025 0.025 0.004 male 0.139 0.084 0.047 0.035 0.029 0.010 female 0.194 0.113 0.074 0.046 0.041 0.013 non-papua island 0.167 0.094 0.063 0.036 0.03 0.012 papua island 0.166 0.114 0.052 0.055 0.053 0.011 total 0.167 0.099 0.061 0.040 0.035 0.012 source: author‟s estimation based on ifls-east 2012 table 4. distribution of out-of-pocket health expenditure, non-food spending share and incidence of catastrophic spending occurence (percentages) out of pocket expenditure share of non-food spending catastrophic health spending (more than 15% of total expenditure) quartile 1 (poorest) 0.807 33.171 0.005 quartile 2 1.208 38.100 0.015 quartile 3 1.350 40.913 0.016 quartile 4 (richest) 1.945 46.421 0.026 urban 1.837 47.403 0.024 rural 0.844 32.848 0.008 male 1.297 38.803 0.016 female 1.227 39.114 0.013 non-papua island 1.242 39.844 0.012 papua island 1.328 35.927 0.023 total 1.261 38.962 0.015 source: author‟s estimation based on ifls-east 2012 table 5. health expenditure regression, 2012, ordinary least square variables coefficient standard error jamkesmas -339.617 (3,324.383) askes 9,486.302 (6,865.709) jamsostek -10,329.332 (8,109.217) company insurance 799.733 (8,378.626) company clinic -368.546 (7,594.197) private insurance 17,963.538 (18,190.075) unconditional cash transfer (bbmblt) -5,251.233* (2,147.330) female household head -9,737.538+ (5,203.506) household head education 24.536 (691.828) household size -4,677.177** (1,367.664) share under 6 female -18,317.522 (16,172.800) share under 6 male -6,671.307 (13,702.742) share 6 to 17male -10,869.672 (11,613.777) share 18 to 60 female 6,338.932 (18,026.549) share 60 up female -16,677.414 (11,078.186) share 60 up male -5,552.574 (15,899.435) owned house -5,484.773 (5,955.024) house size (m2) 90.276+ (49.385) own water access -842.489 (3,132.538) the impact of jamkesmas on healthcare utilization… (novat pugo sambodo) 127 own vehicle 1,593.262 (6,333.295) own piped water -9,784.529 (6,973.282) self employed 9,808.427* (4,991.176) self employed with permanent workers 4,161.914 (16,331.479) self employed with permanent workers 6,710.701 (6,209.129) working part-time 5,266.362 (5,049.198) government official -915.305 (6,811.227) casual worker in agriculture -3,825.328 (4,564.503) casual worker non in agriculture -7,978.930 (7,309.612) puskesmas has a water access 6,487.737 (5,506.652) puskesmas offer check-up/health examination 6,404.672 (4,008.677) puskesmas offer inpatient service -3,947.382 (4,974.984) puskesmas offer dental service -3,719.917 (6,357.939) puskesmas has a pharmacy 5,957.999+ (3,070.323) private clinic has an electricity 7,731.782* (3,715.223) private clinic has an access to water -756.747 (6,328.137) private clinic provides an inpatient services -10,592.019 (17,199.239) private clinic provides dental services 17,211.214+ (10,207.628) private clinic has more than 1 medical staff 19,429.780 (19,735.290) private clinic‟s medical staff number 6,933.733 (13,742.041) private clinic provide check-up/health examination services -14,558.457* (6,050.481) village has public transport facilities 4,328.199 (3,890.562) village main road from asphalt -1,000.469 (2,721.279) distance of district capital from village office (km) 30.379 (33.255) distance of bus station from village office (km) 47.645 (77.010) travel time to nearest puskesmas from village office (hours) -20,912.816** (6,869.707) travel time to nearest private clinic from village office (hours) 14,211.392** (5,373.004) travel time to nearest traditional clinic from village office (hours) -18,367.031 (29,020.811) travel time to nearest hospital from village office (hours) 917.153 (646.347) rural -14,109.628+ (7,360.844) constant 15,267.004 (14,286.709) observations 2,009 r-squared 0.122 robust standard errors in parentheses ** p<0.01, * p<0.05, + p<0.1 table 6. propensity score function, probability of jamkesmas coverage (logit estimates) variables coefficient standard error p>|z| askes -0.8039761*** 0.250713 0.001 jamsostek -0.6501821** 0.2969173 0.029 company insurance -1.140431* 0.6489512 0.079 company clinic -0.1234484 0.5685474 0.828 private insurance -1.020746 0.7798305 0.191 unconditional cash transfer (bbmblt) 0.9906677*** 0.1352175 0 female household head -0.0704081 0.1917069 0.713 household head education -0.0012435 0.0158683 0.938 household size 0.2013327*** 0.0348588 0 share under 6 female -0.7868103 0.5262906 0.135 share under 6 male -0.2807972 0.5155342 0.586 share 6 to 17male 0.6789076 0.418534 0.105 share 18 to 60 female 0.1915376 0.3982037 0.631 share 60 up female 1.020724 0.4501642 0.023 share 60 up male -0.3541693 0.5264139 0.501 owned house 0.1857353 0.1565389 0.235 house size (m2) -0.003937*** 0.0015075 0.009 own water access 0.256806** 0.1448193 0.076 own vehicle -0.0985058** 0.1461105 0.5 128 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan vol. 19, no. 2, oktober 2018: 116-133 own piped water 0.3635692* 0.2124169 0.087 self employed 0.2033447 0.1463234 0.165 self employed with permanent workers 0.2259828 0.5190333 0.663 self employed with permanent workers -0.0912295 0.1488595 0.54 working part-time 0.0218014 0.1466572 0.882 government official -0.3719803* 0.2193433 0.09 casual worker in agriculture -0.1483717 0.3833932 0.699 casual worker non in agriculture -0.0438928 0.3062193 0.886 puskesmas has a water access -0.1455417 0.1941079 0.453 puskesmas offer check-up/health examination 0.5217562 0.188935 0.006 puskesmas offer inpatient service 0.2094606 0.1876386 0.264 puskesmas offer dental service -0.2494966 0.2128469 0.241 puskesmas has a pharmacy -0.4318904 0.2567635 0.093 private clinic has an electricity 0.2716368 0.3095453 0.38 private clinic has an access to water 0.4141801** 0.2117421 0.05 private clinic provides an inpatient services -0.7895023 0.6733281 0.241 private clinic provides dental services -2.863848*** 0.6773531 0 private clinic has more than 1 medical staff -0.0716691 0.5759863 0.901 private clinic‟s medical staff number -0.7292938 0.4800033 0.129 private clinic provide check-up/health examination services 0.817454 0.302973 0.007 village has public transport facilities 0.4014857 0.2259131 0.076 village main road from asphalt 0.2893342 0.2040933 0.156 distance of district capital from village office (km) -0.0023017* 0.0012272 0.061 distance of bus station from village office (km) -0.0012068 0.0038828 0.756 travel time to nearest puskesmas from village office (hours) -0.4524845 0.5309834 0.394 travel time to nearest private clinic from village office (hours) -0.1529145 0.484605 0.752 travel time to nearest traditional clinic from village office (hours) -0.5236731 0.9445133 0.579 travel time to nearest hospital from village office (hours) 0.1859342*** 0.0477327 0 rural 1.021743*** 0.2392876 0 kalimantan timur -1.393772*** 0.3369993 0 sulawesi tenggara -1.053196*** 0.2440458 0 maluku -1.330475*** 0.317391 0 maluku utara -1.978016*** 0.2771026 0 papua barat -0.3076135 0.2586118 0.234 papua 0.0107798 0.2345287 0.963 constant -1.249778 0.7074271 0.077 number of obs = 1953 lr chi2(54) = 678.37 prob> chi2 = 0.0000 log likelihood = -948.49491 pseudo r2 = 0.2634 source: author‟s estimation based on ifls-east 2012 table 7. impact of jamkesmas on healthcare utilization (ols) variables outpatient outpublic outprivate inpatient inpublic inprivate wmedical ch_oop 10 ch_oop 15 quartile 1 (poorest) 0.027 0.024 -0.004 -0.001 -0.003 0.004 -0.119 0.001 0.007 (0.028) (0.025) (0.014) (0.011) (0.012) (0.003) (0.219) (0.014) (0.005) quartile 2 -0.003 -0.012 -0.005 0.012 0.002 0.010 -0.144 -0.009 -0.017 (0.034) (0.031) (0.018) (0.014) (0.016) (0.010) (0.348) (0.016) (0.015) quartile 3 0.024 0.046 -0.000 0.013 0.031 -0.008 -0.622* -0.032* -0.013 (0.034) (0.034) (0.016) (0.015) (0.025) (0.008) (0.312) (0.016) (0.012) quartile 4 (richest) 0.067 0.058 0.002 0.038 0.043 -0.019 0.502 0.037 0.011 (0.046) (0.037) (0.033) (0.033) (0.032) (0.015) (0.752) (0.040) (0.030) rural 0.029 0.016 0.013 0.016* 0.013+ 0.003+ 0.000 -0.002 -0.001 (0.020) (0.016) (0.012) (0.006) (0.008) (0.002) (0.178) (0.009) (0.007) urban 0.007 0.027 -0.017 0.014 0.021 -0.004 -0.227 -0.004 -0.009 (0.030) (0.031) (0.020) (0.024) (0.027) (0.013) (0.521) (0.027) (0.023) the impact of jamkesmas on healthcare utilization… (novat pugo sambodo) 129 papua 0.071* 0.059* 0.023 0.019 0.046+ -0.011 -0.218 -0.003 -0.023 (0.034) (0.028) (0.025) (0.021) (0.028) (0.008) (0.541) (0.030) (0.022) non papua 0.018 0.009 0.002 0.010 0.003 0.004 -0.057 -0.000 0.000 (0.019) (0.018) (0.011) (0.010) (0.010) (0.006) (0.240) (0.013) (0.010) total 0.028+ 0.028+ -0.004 0.015+ 0.015 0.001 -0.234 -0.013 -0.010 (0.017) (0.015) (0.010) (0.008) (0.010) (0.004) (0.200) (0.011) (0.008) source: author‟s estimation based on ifls-east 2012 table 8. descriptive statistics variables observation mea n standar deviation min max outpatient total 2,411 0.167 0.243 0 1 outpatient public 2,401 0.098 7 0.200 0 1 outpatient private 2,401 0.062 8 0.165 0 1 inpatient total 2,411 0.038 6 0.119 0 1 inpatient public 2,357 0.035 5 0.125 0 1 inpatient private 2,357 0.011 0 0.0743 0 1 out of pocket health expenditure share 2,411 1.291 3.550 0 73.6 7 catastrophic health spending 10% 2,411 0.028 2 0.166 0 1 catastrophic health spending 15% 2,411 0.013 7 0.116 0 1 illness 2,411 0.725 0.296 0 1 jamkesmas 2,411 0.361 0.480 0 1 askes 2,411 0.129 0.335 0 1 jamsostek 2,411 0.056 8 0.232 0 1 company insurance 2,411 0.018 7 0.135 0 1 private insurance 2,411 0.014 9 0.121 0 1 company clinic 2,411 0.013 7 0.116 0 1 household head female 2,411 0.161 0.367 0 1 hh head education 2,411 7.737 4.569 0 18 household size 2,411 4.288 2.057 1 16 share under 6 female 2,411 0.066 8 0.119 0 0.66 7 share under 6 male 2,411 0.070 5 0.122 0 0.60 0 share 6 to 17 female 2,411 0.117 0.161 0 1 share 6 to 17 male 2,411 0.119 0.155 0 1 share 18 to 60 female 2,411 0.290 0.186 0 1 share 18 to 60male 2,411 0.261 0.205 0 1 share 60 up female 2,411 0.046 5 0.151 0 1 share 60 up male 2,411 0.039 2 0.119 0 1 household own bbm blt card 2,400 0.229 0.420 0 1 owns house 2,411 0.763 0.425 0 1 house size (m2) 2,410 62.25 49.92 4 800 owns water access 2,411 0.307 0.461 0 1 130 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan vol. 19, no. 2, oktober 2018: 116-133 household has a vehicle 2,411 0.316 0.465 0 1 self employed 2,411 0.287 0.453 0 1 working part time 2,411 0.484 0.500 0 1 self-employed with permanent workers 2,411 0.015 3 0.123 0 1 government official 2,411 0.155 0.362 0 1 private worker 2,411 0.202 0.402 0 1 unpaid family worker 2,411 0.388 0.487 0 1 casual worker in agriculture 2,411 0.020 7 0.143 0 1 casual worker not in agriculture 2,411 0.037 7 0.191 0 1 puskesmas has an electricity 2,411 0.847 0.360 0 1 puskesmas has a water access 2,411 0.320 0.467 0 1 puskesmas has a pharmacy 2,411 0.895 0.306 0 1 puskesmas offer inpatient service 2,384 0.305 0.461 0 1 puskesmas offer inpatient service other than birth 2,384 0.263 0.441 0 1 puskesmas offer check-up/health examination 2,384 0.570 0.495 0 1 puskesmas offer dental service 2,384 0.613 0.487 0 1 private clinic has an electricity 2,411 0.858 0.349 0 1 private clinic has an access to water 2,411 0.226 0.419 0 1 private clinic provides an inpatient services 2,276 0.027 7 0.164 0 1 private clinic provide check-up/health examination services 2,276 0.055 8 0.230 0 1 private clinic provides dental services 2,276 0.026 4 0.160 0 1 private clinic has more than 1 medical staff 2,411 0.078 8 0.269 0 1 private clinic's number of medical staff 2,411 1.102 0.432 1 4 village has public transport facilities 2,411 0.809 0.393 0 1 village main road from asphalt 2,411 0.687 0.464 0 1 distance of bus station from village office (km) 2,323 9.728 26.69 0.01000 200 distance of district capital from village office (km) 2,213 56.03 83.42 0.500 450 travel time to nearest puskesmas from village office (hours) 2,411 0.450 1.898 0 16 travel time to nearest private clinic from village office (hours) 2,411 0.254 0.801 0 6 travel time to nearest traditional clinic from village office (hours) 2,411 0.081 3 0.0752 0 0.50 0 travel time to nearest hospital from village office (hours) 2,411 0.697 2.828 0 24 travel time to nearest posyandu from village office (hours) 2,411 0.118 0.345 0 3 rural 2,411 0.706 0.456 0 1 hh size square 2,411 22.62 22.43 1 256 papua 2,411 0.285 0.451 0 1 source: author‟s estimation based on ifls-east 2012 table 9. common support by number of observations using 5 nearest neighborhood treatment assignment common support off support on support total untreated 0 1229 1229 treated 36 688 724 total 36 1917 1953 the impact of jamkesmas on healthcare utilization… (novat pugo sambodo) 131 figure 2 distribution of the propensity score for treatment and control group using five nearest neighbourhood source: author‟s estimation based on ifls-east 2012 table 10. balancing properties of the matched samples using 5 nearest neighborhood variable unmatched treatment bias t-test v_e[t]/ v_e[c] matched treatment control % bias reduce %|bias| t p>t askes unmatched 0.06215 0.18308 -37.5 -7.58 0 0.38** matched 0.06541 0.05581 3 92.1 0.75 0.456 1.2 jamsostek unmatched 0.03315 0.08706 -22.8 -4.62 0 0.41** matched 0.03488 0.04273 -3.3 85.4 -0.75 0.451 0.82 company insurance unmatched 0.00414 0.03255 -21.3 -4.15 0 0.13** matched 0.00436 0.00552 -0.9 95.9 -0.31 0.759 0.78* company clinic unmatched 0.00829 0.02116 -10.7 -2.17 0.031 0.40** matched 0.00872 0.00581 2.4 77.4 0.63 0.526 1.49* private insurance unmatched 0.00276 0.02766 -20.4 -3.97 0 0.10** matched 0.00291 0.00465 -1.4 93 -0.53 0.598 0.64* unconditional cash transfer (bbmblt) unmatched 0.14917 0.16029 -3.1 -0.65 0.513 0.94 matched 0.15262 0.1532 -0.2 94.8 -0.03 0.976 1 female household head unmatched 7.0359 8.5248 -33.5 -7.02 0 0.74* matched 7.0959 7.093 0.1 99.8 0.01 0.99 0.89 household head education unmatched 4.6878 4.1676 25.2 5.41 0 1.08 matched 4.5974 4.4544 6.9 72.5 1.26 0.209 0.9 household size unmatched 0.06516 0.06661 -1.2 -0.26 0.796 0.81 matched 0.06485 0.0621 2.3 -90 0.45 0.656 0.94 share under6female unmatched 0.07192 0.0724 -0.4 -0.08 0.933 0.89 matched 0.07173 0.07363 -1.6 -294.1 -0.29 0.769 0.96 share under6male unmatched 0.1314 0.11267 11.6 2.47 0.014 1 matched 0.13085 0.11297 11 4.5 2.13 0.034 1.25 share 6to17female unmatched 0.13496 0.1082 17.3 3.72 0 1.12 matched 0.13182 0.13491 -2 88.5 -0.35 0.724 0.93 share 6to17male unmatched 0.26636 0.2973 -17.9 -3.74 0 0.71* matched 0.27021 0.26832 1.1 93.9 0.21 0.833 0.85 share 18to60female unmatched 0.05554 0.03612 13.3 2.9 0.004 1.47* matched 0.0544 0.05847 -2.8 79.1 -0.46 0.649 0.86 share 60upfemale unmatched 0.04246 0.03652 5 1.07 0.285 1.03 matched 0.0425 0.05068 -6.9 -37.7 -1.18 0.239 0.81 share 60upmale unmatched 0.81768 0.71359 24.7 5.18 0 0.70* matched 0.80959 0.8125 -0.7 97.2 -0.14 0.891 1.02 owned house unmatched 55.021 68.533 -27.7 -5.62 0 0.40** matched 55.83 55.465 0.7 97.3 0.18 0.854 1.18 size of house (m2) unmatched 0.34116 0.28478 12.2 2.62 0.009 1.14 matched 0.33866 0.34419 -1.2 90.2 -0.22 0.829 1 own water access unmatched 0.28591 0.38405 -20.9 -4.42 0 0.86 matched 0.2907 0.29157 -0.2 99.1 -0.04 0.972 1 house hold has a vehicle unmatched 0.31354 0.25386 13.3 2.85 0.004 1.15 matched 0.31686 0.31919 -0.5 96.1 -0.09 0.926 0.99 self employed unmatched 0.56215 0.42718 27.2 5.81 0 0.97 0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1 propensity score untreated treated: on support treated: off support 132 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan vol. 19, no. 2, oktober 2018: 116-133 matched 0.54651 0.54273 0.8 97.2 0.14 0.888 0.99 working part time unmatched 0.00967 0.02116 -9.3 -1.9 0.057 0.46** matched 0.01017 0.01395 -3.1 67.1 -0.64 0.521 0.74* self-employed with permanent workers unmatched 0.10221 0.20423 -28.6 -5.9 0 0.57* matched 0.10756 0.09099 4.6 83.8 1.03 0.304 1.24 government official unmatched 0.19751 0.2441 -11.2 -2.38 0.018 0.85 matched 0.20058 0.20581 -1.3 88.8 -0.24 0.81 0.97 private worker unmatched 0.4779 0.34093 28.1 6.04 0 1.06 matched 0.4593 0.43779 4.4 84.3 0.8 0.423 0.98 unpaid family worker unmatched 0.0221 0.02034 1.2 0.26 0.794 1.09 matched 0.0218 0.0218 0 100 0 1 1 casual worker in agriculture unmatched 0.04144 0.03173 5.2 1.12 0.262 1.30* matched 0.0436 0.05174 -4.3 16.1 -0.71 0.479 0.85 casual worker not in agriculture unmatched 0.8895 0.90724 -5.9 -1.27 0.206 1.15 matched 0.89099 0.92762 -12.1 -106.5 -2.37 0.018 1.36* puskesmas has an electricity unmatched 0.22928 0.41904 -41.4 -8.66 0 0.69* matched 0.23983 0.22791 2.6 93.7 0.52 0.602 1.06 puskesmas has a water access unmatched 0.8453 0.91456 -21.4 -4.73 0 1.66* matched 0.85029 0.83983 3.2 84.9 0.54 0.592 0.98 puskesmas has a pharmacy unmatched 0.43232 0.26444 35.8 7.75 0 1.23 matched 0.41424 0.44244 -6 83.2 -1.06 0.291 0.98 puskesmas offer inpatient service unmatched 0.33149 0.22295 24.4 5.3 0 1.27* matched 0.32122 0.31366 1.7 93 0.3 0.764 1.02 puskesmas offer inpatient service other than birth unmatched 0.58149 0.60862 -5.5 -1.18 0.238 1.04 matched 0.57994 0.55727 4.6 16.4 0.85 0.396 0.99 puskesmas offer check-up/health examination unmatched 0.6105 0.65419 -9.1 -1.94 0.052 1.05 matched 0.60174 0.5936 1.7 81.4 0.31 0.758 1.01 puskesmas offer dental service unmatched 0.90746 0.93653 -10.9 -2.37 0.018 1.40* matched 0.90988 0.91628 -2.4 78 -0.42 0.674 1.04 private clinic has an electricity unmatched 0.16022 0.29455 -32.5 -6.74 0 0.65* matched 0.1657 0.15203 3.3 89.8 0.69 0.489 1.09 private clinic has an access to water unmatched 0.00552 0.04638 -25.9 -5.04 0 0.18** matched 0.00581 0.00436 0.9 96.4 0.38 0.705 1.34* private clinic provides an inpatient services unmatched 0.08011 0.0537 10.6 2.31 0.021 1.45* matched 0.0843 0.06105 9.3 11.9 1.66 0.097 1.24 private clinic provide check-up/health examination services unmatched 0.00691 0.04394 -23.7 -4.64 0 0.22** matched 0.00727 0.00698 0.2 99.2 0.06 0.949 1.04 private clinic provides dental services unmatched 0.01796 0.13588 -45.4 -8.87 0 0.19** matched 0.0189 0.02267 -1.5 96.8 -0.49 0.624 0.83 private clinic has more than 1 medical staff unmatched 1.0166 1.1798 -39.2 -7.61 0 0.13** matched 1.0174 1.0227 -1.3 96.8 -0.54 0.587 1.18 private clinic‟s medical staff number unmatched 0.88398 0.80716 21.4 4.44 0 0.69* matched 0.87936 0.86744 3.3 84.5 0.66 0.507 0.93 village has public transport facilities unmatched 0.73757 0.74044 -0.7 -0.14 0.889 1.03 matched 0.73401 0.74128 -1.7 -153.2 -0.31 0.76 1 village main road from asphalt unmatched 10.58 10.986 -1.4 -0.3 0.763 0.76* matched 10.845 11.625 -2.8 -91.9 -0.52 0.6 0.92 distance of bus station from village office (km) unmatched 51.431 58.606 -8.8 -1.8 0.072 0.47** matched 51.517 49.744 2.2 75.3 0.49 0.622 0.96 distance of district capital from village office (km) unmatched 0.16867 0.33233 -21.2 -4.31 0 0.45** matched 0.17265 0.18242 -1.3 94 -0.29 0.775 0.86 travel time to nearest puskesmas from village office (hours) unmatched 0.16664 0.27796 -14.4 -2.93 0.003 0.43** matched 0.16771 0.18823 -2.7 81.6 -0.59 0.555 0.87 travel time to nearest private clinic from village office (hours) unmatched 0.0788 0.09231 -17.8 -3.69 0 0.64* matched 0.07863 0.07695 2.2 87.5 0.47 0.642 1.08 travel time to nearest traditional clinic from village office (hours) unmatched 0.87396 0.81623 1.9 0.4 0.692 0.63* matched 0.87936 1.0341 -5.1 -168 -1.02 0.306 0.87 travel time to nearest hospital from village office (hours) unmatched 0.06209 0.14582 -25.3 -4.94 0 0.14** matched 0.06347 0.06841 -1.5 94.1 -0.57 0.566 1.32* travel time to nearest posyandu from village office (hours) unmatched 0.83149 0.59072 55.1 11.37 0 0.49** matched 0.82267 0.81105 2.7 95.2 0.56 0.577 0.91 the impact of jamkesmas on healthcare utilization… (novat pugo sambodo) 133 kalimantan timur unmatched 0.03867 0.18552 -47.8 -9.49 0 0.30** matched 0.0407 0.03924 0.5 99 0.14 0.891 1.04 sulawesi tenggara unmatched 0.14641 0.16599 -5.4 -1.14 0.253 0.9 matched 0.15262 0.1314 5.8 -8.4 1.13 0.26 1.14 maluku unmatched 0.12845 0.17331 -12.6 -2.64 0.008 0.75* matched 0.13517 0.11424 5.9 53.3 1.17 0.24 1.12 maluku utara unmatched 0.06906 0.1546 -27.4 -5.6 0 0.44** matched 0.07267 0.06831 1.4 94.9 0.32 0.752 1.08 papua barat unmatched 0.16575 0.11229 15.5 3.38 0.001 1.43* matched 0.17151 0.19157 -5.8 62.5 -0.96 0.335 0.91 papua unmatched 0.16851 0.12205 13.2 2.87 0.004 1.30* matched 0.17151 0.1561 4.4 66.8 0.77 0.44 1.07 source: author‟s estimation based on ifls-east 2012 studi efektivitas pelayanan publik di kecamatan kejaksan kota cirebon jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 2, oktober 2014, hlm.97-108 do world gold price, dow jones islamic market and inflation affect the performance of jakarta islamic index? egan janitra institute of public policy and economic studies (inspect) yogyakarta, jalan kenari r 13 sidoarum iii, godean, sleman, yogyakarta, 55564 indonesia, phone: +62 274 798342, correspondence e-mail: janitraegan@gmail.com received: maret 2014; accepted: agustus 2014 abstract: this study aims to analyze the influence of world gold price, dow jones islamic market, and inflation towards the jakarta islamic index (jii) in indonesia stock exchange (idx) from january 2008 to september 2013. the object of the study is publicly traded company listed on the jakarta islamic index (jii). the obtained index is 30 companies listed in jakarta islamic index (jii) with 69 observation data. data analysis is performed using error correction model (ecm). the result shows that whole variables have significant influence toward jakarta islamic index in the long run. while in case of short run, dow jones islamic market has a significant influence toward jakarta islamic index, but world gold price and inflation are not. keywords: jakarta islamic index; dow jones islamic market; world gold price; inflation; error correction model jel classification: p45, e44, g15 abstrak: studi ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh harga emas dunia, dow jones islamic market, dan inflasi terhadap jakarta islamic index (jii) di bursa efek indonesia dari bulan januari 2008 sampai september 2013. objek studi ini adalah perusahaan publik yang terdaftar dalam jakarta islamic index (jii). indeks yang diperoleh sebanyak 30 perusahaan dengan 69 observasi. analisis data menggunakan error correction model (ecm). hasil menunjukkan bahwa harga emas dunia, dow jones islamic market, dan inflasi masingmasing berpengaruh signifikan terhadap jakarta islamic index dalam jangka panjang. sedangkan dalam jangka pendek, hanya dow jones islamic market yang berpengaruh terhadap jakarta islamic index. kata kunci: jakarta islamic index; dow jones islamic market; harga emas dunia; inflasi; error correction model klasifikasi jel: p45, e44, g15 introduction investment today becomes very popular among the people in the world, including indonesia. the aim is to get the future value of the fund in form of interest, coupon, profit sharing, dividend, or capital gain. different investment instruments provide different compensation the investors will reach. majority of investors in indonesia invest their money in the bank on the deposit account as their investment instrument. banks offer interest rate of saving deposit from 5.25% to 9,13% per year (suku bunga deposito, 2014). even in both conventional bank and sharia bank, the yield will not significantly different (pribadi, 2013). in bank deposit, people only can wait and stay until the date of maturity, they jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 2, oktober 2014: 97-108 98 cannot join to interfere the business and manage their portfolio. people cannot minimize the risk of the portfolio and cannot enjoy the profit more than the interest rate (4% up to 7,5%) even when the company get very high income. so, there is other choice of investment instrument which allows people to manage their investment, manage the risk, manage the portfolio, and join general assembly of the company (rapat umum pemegang saham) where dividends are declared. stock market becomes the other alternative of investment instrument which provides more flexibility and intervention of the investor. stock market is an intersection between saving surplus unit with the saving deficit unit through securities trade. stock market (under indonesia stock exchange) allows the people from all over the world to join investing in indonesian companies which are listed in idx. stock market allows the people to choose the stock which they want to hold. there is no regulation which prohibits investor to invest in certain stock, and there is no a regulation which will force investor to invest in certain stock. until today, there are more than 450 companies which are listed in idx. since indonesia stock exchange was established in 1912, it already has had a big role and important part in indonesia. at that time, the fund which has been collected were used by netherland companies to expand their business. but today, idx is already functioned to help the companies which is very important toward indonesia economic condition and welfare. capital market consists of stocks, bonds, and mutual funds. the goal of all is same: to collect fund from the society and utilize it for business activities of the companies. every company which is listed in idx will get a chance to get fund from people by the help of underwriter and investment banking during initial public offering (ipo). so, it is expected that company’s performance can help the country in case of society welfare. the listed companies are grouped based on their sector, such as: agriculture, mining, finance, consumer’s good, miscellaneous industry, etc. to see the development of stock market in indonesia, people will use indicator of stock market in indonesia that is jakarta composite index (jci) or indeks harga saham gabungan (ihsg). this indicator will move in the same line with the other economic indicators. because the macroeconomic indicators are not stagnant but fluctuate, results of the indicator of stock market will also fluctuate. stock market is one of the economic movers in a country, because stock market is the instrument to make a capital and accumulation of long term fund for improving people participation in circulating fund to finance national development (novianto, 2011). at first, indonesia stock exchange (idx) only had one kind of composite index namely jakarta composite index (jci) or indeks harga saham gabungan (ihsg), which was established on april 1st 1983 as the indicator of all stock. at that time, the listed stocks were 13 stocks. as the development of stock market, the amount of stocks which were listed experienced the development also. this condition motivated the occurrence of other index to ease the investor in their analysis of the stock traded in indonesia stock exchange (idx). with this development, there are more indices in indonesia stock exchange (idx) such as jakarta composite index (jci) or indeks harga saham gabungan (ihsg), individual index, sectoral index, lq45 index, jakarta islamic index (jii), primary stock, and development index. there are so many sectors (agriculture, mining, finance, consumers good, miscellaneous industry, etc.) in the stock market, but they can be classified into two general categories: conventional and sharia. conventional and sharia were decided and issued by majelis ulama indonesia on july 3rd 2000. both conventional and sharia stock market are compiled based on the rule of sharia. jakarta composite index (jci) or indeks harga saham gabungan (ihsg) consist of all stocks which are listed in indonesia stock exchange (idx), either conventional and sharia stock of company. but the study in this research focuses on sharia stock market only. this research tries to see which factors that can impact the movement of islamic stock index. jakarta islamic index (jii) is the most important component of ihsg which becomes the index of sharia company stock. this index do world gold price, dow jones islamic market .. (egan janitra) 99 shows the development of sharia companies which are listed in idx. through jakarta islamic index (jii) which is already issued by mui of indonesia stock exchange, people can contribute to the country by giving fund to the saving deficit unit without any worry about the halal or haram transaction inside it. because of the existence of jii, people can manage the investment, portfolio, and the company without losing sharia aspect. so, the investor still can get benefit of holding stock such dividend, capital gain, and the right to join the meeting with the other stockholders. based on the graph above (figure 1), jakarta islamic index is responded positively by market and still in its uptrend up to now. islamic stock market becomes the important choice for the investors in stock market. it is same with the existence of islamic bank. it becomes the need of people especially in this country. islamic stock market with its index (jakarta islamic index) becomes the indicator which influences the economic condition in indonesia; it consists of the stocks list of companies which are determined by mui. jakarta islamic index is an important component of indeks harga saham gabungan (ihsg) which consists of whole companies stocks. the stocks which are listed in this index (jii) become the choice for moslem investor, so the investment will not only become the field of income, but it also can become the field of seeking grant of allah. in a study on thesis by mauliano (2009), external and internal factors which influence the stock index in indonesia are used. external factors are dow jones index (djia), new york stock exchange index (nyse), footsie london index (ftse), strait times singapore index (sti), nikkei 225 tokyo index (n225), hang seng hong kong index (hsi), kospi korea index (ks11), kuala lumpur stock exchange index (klse), and world oil price. internal factors are foreign exchange, sbi interest rate, inflation. the sbi interest rate and inflation data were taken from bank indonesia data. meanwhile, world oil price was taken from opec. the result showed the most factors which influence jakarta composite index are dow jones, hang seng, klse and world oil price and internal factors were sbi interest rate and inflation. the research showed that stock market was really sensitive with the condition of economics from many sides. in the other research done by sutanto (2013), the researchers used sbi interest rate, world oil price, world gold price, foreign exchange, nikkei225, and dow jones industrial average as the variables to analyze what factors influence jakarta islamic index. he found that sbi interest rate and world oil price had relationship but not significant. world gold source: hots kdb daewoo securities figure 1. long term jakarta islamic index jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 2, oktober 2014: 97-108 100 price, nikkei225, and dow jones had positive relationship with significant result. foreign exchange did not influence jci. in other research, prasetiono (2010) used fundamental of macro economics and oil price toward lq45 stock price. he found that within a short run, economic growth and crude oil price influenced lq45 stock price. furthermore, in the long run of economic growth, sbi rate influenced lq45 stock price as checked in error correction model. novianto (2011), on the other hand, analyzed the factors which influenced jakarta composite index. this research aimed to know the influence of exchange rate of dollar toward rupiah, sbi interest rate, inflation, and money supply (m2) toward jakarta composite index (jci) in indonesia stock exchange between january 1999 to june 2010. partially, exchange rate and money supply had positive relationship with significant result. meanwhile, inflation and sbi interest rate had no positive relationship with significant result. from the four variables, the dominant determinant toward jakarta composite index in indonesia stock exchange (idx) was exchange rate. this research was in accordance to the research done by novianto (2011) who analyzed the factors which influence jakarta composite index. the result showed that gross domestic product (gdp), exchange rate, dow jones industrial average, interest rate of sertifikat bank indonesia (sbi) had positive relationship with significant result. other study conducted by wulandari (2010) who analyzed the factors which influence risk stock of jakarta islamic index stock components. this research aimed to know the influence of interest rate, inflation, and liquidity variables toward jakarta islamic index (jii) in indonesia stock exchange between january 2008 to september 2013. partially, interest rate and inflation had significant negative effect. meanwhile, liquidity variables had no significant effect on investment risk stocks listed on the jakarta islamic index. panatagama (2013) analyzed the factors which influenced the stock return of 10 stocks in jakarta islamic index with independent variables such as consumer price index, crude oil price, interest rate, and trading volume. the result showed that interest rate and oil price had a negative relationship, consumer price index had a positive relationship, and trading value had no relationship toward jakarta islamic index. hugida (2011) found that trading volume, inflation, and exchange rate of rupiah had positive significant influence, while interest rate of sbi had negative significant influence to stock price volatility of lq45 in 2006 – 2009 by multiple linear regression method. in this research, the researcher tried to find out whether the factors which influence jci (jakarta composite index) mentioned above will affect the jii (jakarta islamic index). therefore, moslem investors will have some basis or indicator when they join the stock market. the research will be based on dow jones islamic market, world gold price, and inflation as the independent variables. this study uses data from january 2008 to october 2013. analysing these variables will also be figured out the factors that have influence in jakarta islamic index. research method data and sources this research uses secondary data collected from the literature which are related to the problem researched and were collected by other researchers. secondary data are taken from books, journals, and articles. the data in this research are taken from january 2008 to september 2013. the data are collected through seeking the data that are related with the variables of research respectively with the year of analysis and document it. the sources are bank indonesia, bursa efek indonesia, hots software kdb daewoo securities, london fix historical gold (kitco), yahoo!! finance and google finance. analysis tool error correction model (ecm) is the tool to analyze the relationship between dow jones islamic market (djim), world gold price (gold), and inflation (inf) toward jakarta islamic index (jii) by following these procedures: the multiple linear regression models in do world gold price, dow jones islamic market .. (egan janitra) 101 this research are formulated as follow: jiiit = βo + β1tdjimit + β2tgoldit + β3tinfit + et 1) where: jii = jakarta islamic index; βo = constant; β1, β2, β3 = coefficient; djim= dow jones islamic market; gold = world gold price; inf = inflation; et = error term. error correction model can be conducted if the whole variables are not stationary at level (but at difference), and the variables are co-integrated with stationary of the residual at level. this test is to know the behavior of short run and long run of the data. the model is formulated below: d(jii) = β1 + β2 d(djim) + β3 d(gold) + β4 d(inf) + β5 ut(-1) 2) where: jii, djim, gold, and inf are first different variables; β1 is intercept; β2, β3, β4 are short run coefficient; ut(-1) is the one period lag residual of model if the coefficient of residual is significant and contains negative sign, it validates that a long run equilibrium relationship among the variables exists. descriptive statistics becomes a set of whole descriptive coefficient which concludes the variables in a study. it represents the entire population or sample in the study and explains data central tendency and dispersion measurement (panatagama, 2013). descriptive analysis is the part of statistics which is used to describe the data without making any conclusion, but only explain that data. this research will conduct descriptive test by seeking some data such as: mean, median, maximum, and minimum value. unit root test the unit root test used in this study is augmented dickey fuller (adf) which is to know the existence of unit root in the variables. unit root test is the test which is used to determine whether the data are stationary or not. the test will observe the whole variables in this study. groups of data are stationary if the average value and variant of time series data do not experience a systematic changing all the time, or some said the average and variant are constant (nachrowi and usman, 2006). the random walk model equation is formulated below: yt = ρ yt-1 + ut 3) if ρ = 1, it means that model is random walk without trend. here, it is found that yt is not stationary. so, it can be in the problem of unit root and the data are not stationary. therefore, the next model is formulated: ϫy = ɤ yt-1 + ut 4) a non-stationary data means that the regression will be spurious (non-sense regression). if the stationary of research data is known, the linearity of research data testing will be conducted through co-integration test. long term estimation long run equation in error correction model is the regression linear with variables which are not stationary at level. with this test, the existence of long run impact of independent variables toward dependent variable by using multiple regression model will be figured out. multiple linear regression is utilized to know the influence of dow jones islamic market, world gold price, and inflation, toward jakarta islamic index from 2008.1 to 2013.9. co-integration test co-integration test is conducted if the data are not stationary at level and this test is to analyze the validity of the model which contains the symptom of spurious regression. co-integration of an equation can be seen by its residual. if the residual is stationary, it means that there is co-integration. meanwhile, if it is not stationary, it means that the long run model above is a spurious or non-sense model. actually, the simple regression model as follows: jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 2, oktober 2014: 97-108 102 y = βo + β1 x1 + ut 5) in this test, the equation will be written as follows: ut = y βo β1 x1 6) if ut is stationary, so y and x1 is co-integrated. it is possible to occur because the y and x1 trend eliminate each other, so the variables which are not stationary can results in stationary result. the parameter which is achieved is co-integration parameter and the regression is co-integration regression. consideration of stock investment (jakarta islamic index) jakarta islamic index is the index of 30 selected sharia stocks. it means a moslem investor will use this index to maximize the profit without worrying of non-sharia elements of stocks from unlawful companies. as long as investors use this jii index, they will always find the best sharia stock choices because once the member of jii does not fulfill the sharia screening, it will not be listed as a member of jii anymore. it is because dewan syariah nasional (dsn-mui) will always control and manage the development of companies business through jakarta islamic index. the latest members of jakarta islamic index are given in the appendix. the companies listed in jii become the choices and stock picks when people want to invest in sharia stock by direct buying at secondary market or through investment manager of mutual fund. jakarta islamic index is also a great product of mutual fund which is available in the asset management companies. therefore, jakarta islamic index is needed both in stock market and also the mutual fund. from the figure of jakarta islamic index above (figure 2), it is clear that jakarta islamic index is still in strong up trend. in order to invest through this index, investors should consider the variables which will influence this index globally and locally. therefore, this study will use dow jones islamic market as the leader of islamic sharia world index, world gold price as the main indicator of world investment because gold is the only “money” which can be traded and accepted in any place and time, and inflation as a reflection of indonesian economic condition. result and discussion unit root test unit root test is the test which is used to determine whether the data is stationary or not. the test will observe the whole variables in this source: hots kdb daewoo securities figure 2. long term jakarta islamic index do world gold price, dow jones islamic market .. (egan janitra) 103 study. groups of data are stationary if the average value and variant of time series data do not experience a changing systematically all the time or the average and variant are constant (nachrowi and usman, 2006). from table 1, it is known that the adf test statistics of jakarta islamic index, dow jones islamic market, world gold price, and inflation are -5.182440, -5.160058, -5.206528 and -4.487082 (respectively). since these values are under the whole critical value, it means that these data are stationary at first difference lag 1. because the stationary test is conducted in the first difference/integrated-degrees test, therefore, the relationship to be examined among jii and other independent variables must be conducted in ecm estimation and forecasted on their first difference. it is formulated with the following equation: djiiit = βo + β1tddjimit + β2tdgoldit + β3tdinfit + et 6) where d = difference; βo = intercept; β1, β2, β3 = coefficient; jii = jakarta islamic index; djim = dow jones islamic market; gold = world gold price; inf = inflation rate; et = error term. long run equilibrium estimation long run equation in error correction model is the regression linear with variables which are not stationary at level. with this test, the existence of long run impact of independent variables toward dependent variable will be figured out. based on the table 2, it is concluded that: 1) dow jones islamic market (djim) influences jakarta islamic index (jii) level at α = 1%. one unit rises in djim will increase jii level by 0.269549 units; 2) world gold price (gold) influences jakarta islamic index (jii) level at α=1%. one dollar rises in gold will increase jii level by 0.093974 units; 3) inflation (inf) influences jakarta islamic index (jii) level at α=1%. one unit rises in inf will decrease jii level by -12.68336 units. r-squared is 0.917336 and it is more than the durbin watson stat (0.621282), so it is the symptom on spurious model, but if the residual is stationary at level, it will be no longer spurious, but accepted. therefore, co-integration test should be conducted. co-integration test co-integration of an equation can be seen by its residual. if the residual is stationary, it means that there is co-integration. however, if it is not stationary, it means that the long run model above is a spurious or non-sense model. the table above proves that the adf test statistics is significant at α = 5% or it is under 5% critical value. it means that the residual is stationary and that dependent variable (jii) has a co-integration with the independent variables (djim, gold, and inf). in other words, the model above is not spurious regression but cotable 1. result of adf test statistics at first difference lag 1 variables adf test statistics critical value (1%, 5%, and 10%) jii -5.182440 -4.1013 -3.4779 -3.1663 djim -5.160058 -4.1013 -3.4779 -3.1663 gold -5.206528 -3.5312 -2.9055 -2.5899 inf -4.487082 -4.1013 -3.4779 -3.1663 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 2, oktober 2014: 97-108 104 integrated regression. so, the null hypothesis is rejected and the long run model is accepted. the coefficients of variables (djim, gold, inf) are therefore long run coefficient and significant. error correction model as the variables such as jii, djim, gold, inf are cointegrated, the error correction model can be conducted. this test is used to know the behavior of short run and long run of jakarta islamic index. the model is: d(jii) = β1 + β2 d(djim) + β3 d(gold) + β4 d(inf) + β5 ut(-1) 7) where: jii, djim, gold, and inf are first different variables; β1 is intercept; β2, β3, β4 are short run coefficient; ut(-1) is the one period lag residual of model. if the coefficient of residual is significant and contains negative sign, it validates that there exists a long run equilibrium relationship among the variables (jii, djim, gold, and inf). based on the result of ecm test shown in table 3, it is known that: 1) the coefficient (res) is significant and contains negative sign. so, it is concluded that a long run equilibrium among the variables exists; 2) the model above is also not a spurious model because r-squared (0.502787) is less than dw stat (2.215824); 3) prob (f-stat) is 0,0000 (under 5%), it means that the variables influence the dependent one jointly; 4) dow jones islamic market (djim) influences jakarta islamic index (jii) level at α=5% in case of short run estimation. one unit rises in djim will increase jii level at 0.226240 units; 5) world gold price (gold) does not influence jakarta islamic index (jii) level at α=5% in case of short run estimation; 6) inflation (inf) does not influence jakarta islamic index (jii) level at α=5% in case of short run estimation. after completing whole ecm steps, two equations are achieved which become the core of the study. with this equation, the influence of independent variables toward dependent variable which are analyzed can be interpreted. based on long run estimation, the result is: jiit = -122.1364 + 0.269549 djimt* + 0.093974 goldt* -12.68336 inft* 8) explanation: (*) is significant variable at 5%; (t) is period / time this equation tells that djim, gold, and inf have significant impact to jii in the long run. while the output of short run equation is: ϫjiit = 0.479677 + 0.226240 ϫdjimt* + 0.018358 ϫgoldt -7.505802 ϫinft – 0.321106 rest-1 explanation: (*) is significant variable at 5%; (t) is period / time this equation tells that only djim has impact to the jii in short term. one unit rises in djim will increase jii level at 0.226240 units. based on speed adjustment value, there is 33% disequilibrium in short term of djim, gold, and inf table 2. long run estimation variable coefficient std. error t-statistic prob. c -122.1364 44.14213 -2.766890 0.0074 djim 0.269549 0.018603 14.48921 0.0000 gold 0.093974 0.025894 3.629244 0.0006 inf -12.68336 2.970312 -4.270041 0.0001 r-square 0.917336 f-stat 240.4388 (0.000000) dw-stat 0.621282 do world gold price, dow jones islamic market .. (egan janitra) 105 toward jii which are corrected in every period. the long run and short run analysis is not spurious. this result is proven by co-integration test and error correction model. the data are also valid according to classical assumption test. it means that the data are accepted with all the result. the study contains long run and short run analysis. according to utomo (2011), in stock market, long run investment needs more than three months, while the short run is one day to three months. therefore, this study analyzes the historical time series data in order to see the influence of the independent variables toward dependent variables in the future. dow jones islamic market is the kind of dow jones industrial average (wall street capital market biggest index) located in united states of america. dow jones islamic market has impact to jakarta islamic index both in long run and short run (proven by long run estimation and error correction mechanism). it means that whole investors in jakarta islamic index should consider this variable. dow jones islamic market cannot be separated from the condition of united states of america as the superpower country with all of its ability, including the economic side. america is one of the superior countries in case of economics. it can be seen by its currency, us dollar is the world currency which is used in international transaction. it means that the depreciation and appreciation of us dollar will influence the international transaction. therefore, the movement of economic activity and changing of monetary policy created by us government will be responded by international market. trade balance of america is also important for international transaction. a bad trade balance will create a changing of some policies. this condition will probably motivate the changing of the amount of goods and services imported and exported. government policies through the fed (monetary policy) will influence the world condition, especially indonesia. jakarta islamic index is a big index in indonesia stock exchange. this phenomenon can be seen in the case of tapering policy by the fed, in which the decreasing of tapering stimulation creates the dow jones islamic market decline immediately following by other indices in the world including jakarta islamic index. all conditions and development of united states of america, which are reflected in dow jones islamic market, will be seen by whole countries in the world including indonesia. so, it is true that dow jones islamic market will influence jakarta islamic index both in the long run and short run. gold is the only one thing which can be used as the money (transaction tool), as jewelry, and as investment tool, because gold has nominal value and intrinsic value inserted in every piece of gold. therefore, gold is the only “money” that people trust every time. it does not matter whether the economic condition is good, normal, or even crisis, people still use gold in order to keep up the purchasing power of the wealth they have. moreover, gold is antiinflation effect. it means that when government publishes the increasing of inflation data which show the higher commodities price which lower down the purchasing power, on the other hand, gold will follow the inflation rate. so, it does not matter if the inflation is high. gold will adjust it. table 3. error correction model variable coefficient std. error t-statistic prob. c 0.479677 3.193372 0.150210 0.8811 d(djim) 0.226240 0.030342 7.456428 0.0000 d(gold) 0.018358 0.059626 0.307883 0.7592 d(inf) -7.505802 4.606732 -1.629312 0.1082 res(-1) -0.321106 0.091388 -3.513652 0.0008 r-square 0.502787 f-stat 15.92658 (0.000000) dw-stat 2.215824 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 2, oktober 2014: 97-108 106 gold is very strong against dollar. when us dollar is appreciated, gold price will also adjust it because the price of world gold price has a direct relationship with us dollar. then when the us dollar is depreciated or not trusted anymore at that time, investor will sell us dollar and change their portfolio to gold investment. therefore, the price of gold will adjust the changes also. it is cleared that gold will have a big position in the world economic indicator including the index of stock market. so, the movement of world gold price will reflect many things. when the gold price increases, it means that the market is in positive sentiment (because inflation is always increased). it shows that the market is good because people collect gold continually in long term period. this shows that purchasing power and welfare of people is better, therefore jakarta islamic index will also appreciate. however, when gold price decreases, it means that error occurs in the market, thus, jakarta islamic index will respond it with positive relationship. because the philosophy of gold is to hedge fund (keep fund value), it will need a long time for the investors to enjoy the benefit of having gold. so, gold investment will influence the index of stock market (jakarta islamic index) in the long run only, not the short run. in the short run, the movement of gold price is a usual behavior. gold will not be influenced only by government policy or market behavior. moreover, there is agreement of all nations in the world to limit the trade of gold in order to keep the stabilization of world gold price (tanuwidjaja, 2011, p.43). so, market will not respond it and jakarta islamic is not influenced. inflation has a negative relationship toward jakarta islamic index. inflation is a bad news because it defines a rising of overall prices and indicates the decreasing of people purchasing power. inflation will make people unable to buy and consume the goods and services as many as before, because the inflation causes the people to lose their money as if it is stolen by an invisible thief. high inflation reflects the high price of goods and services, including the commodities which are used by companies in their production. when inflation is high, companies will suffer some troubles generally, such as: 1) higher cost of production; 2) higher salary demanded by the labor; 3) lower demand by people, and 4) credit which should be paid by companies will be more difficult because of lower net income and higher interest rate in the short run, the effect of inflation will not have a significant influence to the people. so, the fund which is invested in jakarta islamic index will develop and circulate regularly, and the vice versa. short run inflation will not influence the company significantly because company will always consider this situation in their project. therefore, the changing of inflation in the short run will not influence the stock market including jakarta islamic index. short run inflation will always anticipated by each company by good pricing method which considers the risk in every production. so, the people lifestyle will not change, because the changing price in the market will not totally influence the people saving and expenditure. therefore, it is clear that short run inflation has no effect to jakarta islamic index. however, if the inflation is suffered in long run, bad forecasts of economic activities will occur. people will suffer from lower income, poverty will rise, and company’s income will decline. high inflation in the long run will create people losing their jobs (unemployment raises), many companies will experience a lower performance of production, higher interest rate will creates some unit defaults, and stock market will experience negative effect from this condition. it is clear that when inflation rises overtime in long run, people will decrease their investment in stock market, people will withdraw their fund in order to fulfill their basic needs. at least, their investment will be moved to the bank deposit which provides higher interest rate. this situation is better than to keep the fund in jakarta islamic index with the lower performance (high risk) of majority companies listed in idx. so, inflation will be responded by jakarta islamic index in the long run with significant level. conclusions as the variable which influences jakarta do world gold price, dow jones islamic market .. (egan janitra) 107 islamic index, dow jones islamic market has a significant influence in long run and short run with positive coefficient. it means that the role of djim as the reference of islamic index is useful to be considered in jakarta islamic index investment. world gold price has a positive relationship toward jakarta islamic index with significant result in long run. however, it does not influence jakarta islamic index in the short run estimation. it is because gold is the most favorite investment and also the only tool which has intrinsic value which makes people believes gold as the infinitive investment which is very strong for economic condition in long run. moreover, the increasing price of gold will give the positive sentiment to the stock market, and the decreasing price of gold will motivate people to buy more gold. therefore, it will not influence the economic condition in short run. so, the movement of gold price in short run will not affect people investment in jakarta islamic index because the changing price in short run is a usual market behavior. inflation has a negative relationship toward jakarta islamic index with significant result in long run estimation. in the short run, inflation does not influence the investment in jakarta islamic index. inflation in the long run reflects the condition of a country, but not in the short run. inflation in the short run is still controlled by the companies and government policies. when the inflation rate is announced in the first day of every month, less than 2 weeks after that, bank indonesia as the central bank of indonesia will fix and control it through the interest rate policy. therefore, it does not reflect the economic condition immediately, and the stock market (jakarta islamic index) will not influenced based on the coefficient of each variable, it is concluded that in the long run, one unit rises in dow jones islamic market will increase jakarta islamic index level at 0.269549 units. then, one dollar rises in world gold price will increase jakarta islamic index level at 0.093974 units. one unit rises in inflation will decrease jakarta islamic index level by 12.68336 units. based on the coefficient of each variable, it is concluded that in the short run, one unit rises in dow jones islamic market will increase jakarta islamic market level at 0.226240 units. references hugida, l. (2011). analisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi volatilitas harga saham (studi pada perusahaan yang terdaftar dalam indeks lq45 periode 2006–2009). manuscript. semarang: fakultas ekonomi manajemen, universitas diponegoro. mauliano, d. a. (2009). analisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi indeks harga saham gabungan (ihsg) di indonesia. jurnal fakultas ekonomi manajemen, universitas gunadarma. jakarta: universitas gunadarma. nachrowi, d., and usman, h. (2006). pendekatan populer dan praktis ekonometrika untuk analisis ekonomi dan keuangan. jakarta: lembaga penerbit fakultas ekonomi universitas indonesia. novianto, a. (2011). analisis pengaruh nilai tukar (kurs) dolar amerika/rupiah (us$/rp), tingkat suku bunga sbi, inflasi, dan jumlah uang beredar (m2) terhadap indeks harga saham gabungan (ihsg) di bursa efek indonesia (bei) periode januari 1991–juni 2010. manuscript. semarang: fakultas ekonomi studi pembangunan, universitas diponegoro. panatagama, f.m. (2013). the analysis of macroeconomics variables tha influence stock return jakarta islamic index and its var forecasting. manuscript. yogyakarta: fakultas ekonomi universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta. prasetiono, dwi wahyu. (2010). analisis pengaruh fundamental ekonomi makro dan harga minyak terhadap saham lq45 dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. journal of indonesian applied economics. vol. 4 no. 1 mei 2010: 11-25 pribadi, f. (2013). lecture notes. retrieved november, 2013, from universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta, international program for islamic economics and finance, website: www.umy.ac.id sutanto, b. (2013). analisis pengaruh ekonomi makro, indeks dow jones, dan indeks jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 2, oktober 2014: 97-108 108 nikkei225 terhadap indeks harga saham gabungan (ihsg) di bei periode 2007 – 2011. scientist journal (2) no.1, universitas surabaya. wulandari, s. (2010). pengaruh tingkat suku bunga, likuiditas, dan tingkat inflasi terhadap risiko investasi saham yang terdaftar pada jakarta islamic index (jii). manuscript. fakultas ekonomi akuntansi universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta. microsoft word 09-wahyu jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 1, april 2014, hlm.78-96 peramalan penjualan air bersih dan formulasi strategi perusahaan daerah air minum wahyu abdullah magister ekonomika pembangunan, fakultas ekonomi universitas gadjah mada jalan teknika utara, barek yogyakarta 55281 indonesia, phone: +62 274 555917 e-mail korespondensi: smartyou.abdullah@gmail.com naskah diterima: november 2013; disetujui: maret 2014 abstract: the study aims to analyze the rate of the water selling in approximately one year ahead with the best method analysis, by identifying the internal environment factor and the external firm factor, then formulates the strategy that is used by pdam sleman. the method uses in this research is the time series, the matrix internal factor evaluation (ife), external factor evaluation (efe), and also the matrix strength, opportunity, and threat (swot). the data is the actual selling of water from pdam kabupaten sleman approximately 4 years since january 2010 to november 2013, known has the trend period (prone to increase). then based on the matrix of ife shows that the pdam sleman has the highest score of 0,444. the efe matrix shows the highest possibility of pdam sleman is the huge market with the renewal water source, with the score of 0,511. based on total score of ife and efe, it places pdam sleman in the v on the matrix of ie. keywords: forecasting of selling water; internal environment factor; external environment factor jel classification: r58, p48, q56 abstrak: tujuan dari studi ini adalah menganalisis tingkat peramalan penjualan air bersih selama kurang lebih satu tahun ke depan dengan metode analisis terbaik, serta mengidentifikasi faktor-faktor lingkungan internal dan eksternal perusahaan, dan kemudian memformulasikan strategi yang dapat diterapkan oleh pdam kabupaten sleman. metode studi yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah metode analisis time series, yaitu metode tren musiman, kemudian matriks internal factor evaluation (ife), external factor evaluation (efe), dan juga menggunakan matriks strenght, weakness, opportunity, and threat (swot). data yang digunakan adalah penjualan aktual air bersih pdam kabupaten sleman selama kurang lebih 4 tahun periode januari 2010 sampai november 2013, diketahui memiliki unsure tren (cenderung meningkat) dan unsure musiman. kemudian, berdasarkan matriks ife menunjukkan bahwa faktor kekuatan pdam kabupaten sleman yang memiliki skor tertinggi adalah unit produksi yang cukup memadai dengan skor sebesar 0,444. sedangkan matriks efe menunjukkan peluang terbesar bagi pdam kabupaten sleman adalah adanya potensi pangsa pasar yang cukup besar dan sumber air baku yang cukup banyak, dengan skor sebesar 0,511. berdasarkan total nilai skor terbobot dari matriks ife dan efe tersebut menempatkan pdam kabupaten sleman pada sel nomor v dalam matriks ie. kata kunci: peramalan penjualan air bersih; faktor lingkungan internal; faktor lingkungan eksternal klasifikasi jel: r58, p48, q56 peramalan penjualan air bersih ... (wahyu abdullah) 79 pendahuluan pam atau pdam adalah salah satu bentuk sektor publik yang merupakan bagian dari perekonomian nasional yang dikendalikan oleh pemerintah, berkaitan dengan pemberian atau penyerahan jasa-jasa pemerintah kepada publik. perusahaan daerah air minum (pdam) kabupaten sleman merupakan sebuah perusahaan daerah yang memiliki wewenang dalam penyediaan kebutuhan konsumsi air bersih bagi masyarakat di kabupaten sleman. saat ini, sampai dengan oktober 2013, total pelanggan yang terlayani oleh pdam berjumlah 24.194 pelanggan dengan kapasitas produksi sebesar 271,00 liter per detik. perinciannya disajikan dalam tabel 1. adapun jumlah pelanggan dalam kurun waktu tujuh tahun terakhir mengalami peningkatan setiap tahunnya, kecuali pada tahun 2008 yang mengalami penurunan. perinciannya adalah sebagai berikut: berdasarkan data yang telah diuraikan di atas, terlihat bahwa jumlah pelanggan mengalami tren meningkat, hal ini menunjukkan bahwa setiap tahun, kebutuhan masyarakat akan air bersih sebagai kebutuhan pokok semakin tinggi. dalam upaya meningkatkan pelayanan kebutuhan air bersih masyarakat kabupaten sleman, perlu adanya proyeksi sejauh mana pencapaian penyediaan air di tahun-tahun yang akan datang dengan menggunakan metode peramalan atau estimasi. selain itu, sebagai sebuah badan usaha, pdam harus mampu menganalisis lingkungan usaha dan memprediksi berbagai kemungkinan yang terjadi di masa depan. kegiatan forecast atau meramal merupakan salah satu usaha sebuah perusahaan sebagai dasar pengambilan keputusan strategis kelangsungan usaha. memprediksi penjualan yang terlalu besar dan kurang akurat mengakibatkan biaya produksi akan meningkat sehingga seluruh investasi yang ditanamkan menjadi kurang efisien (kotler, 2007). oleh karena itu, untuk mengantisipasi permasalahan tersebut dilakukan prediksi kemungkinan terjadinya penurunan atau kenaikan penjualan pada periode yang akan datang dengan diperolehnya informasi yang akurat sehingga perusahaan dapat mempersiapkan strategi-strategi yang harus ditempuh untuk menghadapi suatu kondisi tertentu (rangkuti, 2005). strategi pengelolaan yang tepat menjadi hal yang sangat penting untuk memanfaatkan peluang dan menghindari atau mencegah ancaman dari luar dengan memberdayakan seluruh sumber daya yang dimiliki oleh pengelola secara efektif dan efisien. oleh karena itu, pengelola pdam di kabupaten sleman perlu menerapkan strategi yang tepat untuk meningkatkan kinerja pelayanannya. berikut beberapa studi yang serupa dengan studi ini, yaitu studi yang dilakukan oleh dian suminar (2007) yang meneliti tentang analisis formulasi strategi pada perusahaan daerah air minum (pdam) tirta pakuan kota bogor. berdasarkan hasil dan pembahasan dari studi tersebut, disimpulkan bahwa berdasarkan identifikasi lingkungan internal diperoleh beberapa kekuatan dan kelemahan perusahaan, serta identifikasi lingkungan eksternal juga menghasilkan beberapa peluang dan ancaman. setelah diuji dengan matriks ife dan efe, serta matriks ie, diketahui bahwa perusahaan dalam keadaan hold and maintain, atau pertahankan dan dikembangkan. dalam studi lain, akhmat thohir melakukan studi tentang “analisis peramalan penjualan minyak sawit kasar atau crude palm oil (cpo) pada pt. kharisma pemasaran bersama (kpb) tabel 1. jumlah langganan pdam kabupaten sleman no jenis langganan tahun 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1 rumah tangga 18.961 18.958 18.359 18.405 18.661 20.579 22.012 2 sosial 160 165 156 158 178 179 194 3 niaga 44 46 44 46 47 48 53 4 instansi 158 153 153 160 160 163 166 5 kran umum 148 130 120 112 107 105 103 6 industri 1 0 0 0 1 1 2 jumlah 19.472 19.452 18.832 18.881 20.154 21.075 22.530 sumber: pdam kabupaten sleman, 2013 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 1, april 2014: 78-96 80 nusantara di jakarta”. berdasarkan hasil studi disimpulkan bahwa pola data penjualan oleh perusahaan selama 7 tahun periode januari 2004 sampai desember 2010, memiliki unsure tren (cenderung meningkat) dan unsure musiman. berdasarkan perhitungan metode peramalan menggunakan metode tren kuadratik, diketahui bahwa jumlah total nilai peramalan untuk satu tahun mendatang (tahun 2011) yaitu periode 85 sampai periode 96 adalah adalah sebesar 2.607.985 ton cpo. selain itu perlu juga adanya antisipasi terhadap unsure musiman yang terjadi berdasarkan data yang terbentuk yaitu pada bulanbulan tertentu seperti awal dan akhir tahun, pengaruh iklim serta hari raya pada bulanbulan tertentu. peningkatan ptpn diperlukan seperti kegiatan ekstensifikasi, intensifikasi, dan penanganan pascapanen atau pengolahan tandan buah segar (tbs), agar produksi cpo berlangsung optimal yang berakibat meningkatnya penjualan cpo perusahaan. metode penelitian data yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah data primer dan data sekunder. data-data yang diperoleh digunakan untuk melakukan analisis terhadap strategi pengelolaan pdam. data yang diperlukan untuk menganalisis lingkungan perusahaan meliputi tiga data yaitu; 1) data untuk melakukan peramalan atau estimasi di masa yang akan datang, dengan menggunakan data penjualan air bersih selama 47 bulan yaitu dari januari 2010 hingga november 2013; 2) data untuk analisis lingkungan internal yaitu data lapangan yang diperoleh dari lokasi survey yang terpilih seperti unit air baku, unit pengelolaan, dan unit distribusi; 3) data untuk analisis lingkungan eksternal yaitu data lingkungan mikro dan makro. pengolahan dan analisis data menggunakan dua metode, yaitu metode kuantitatif, dan metode kualitatif. kegiatan menganalisis data kuantitatif peramalan penjualan air bersih dilakukan dengan menggunakan program microsoft excel dan minitab 16. sedangkan metode kualitatif, alat analisis yang digunakan dalam tahap masukan yaitu matriks ife (sisi kekuatan dan kelemahan) dan matriks efe (sisi peluang dan ancaman). studi ini menggunakan metode peramalan time series atau deret berkala. deret berkala mempunyai empat komponen yaitu tren (kecenderungan), variasi musim, variasi siklus, dan variasi yang tidak tetap (irregular variation). berdasarkan semua metode yang digunakan tersebut akan dipilih metode yang paling sesuai dengan pola data yang terdapat pada perusahaan. analisis musiman berhubungan dengan perubahan atau fluktuasi dalam satuan bulanan atau triwulan atau kuartal atau semester dalam setahun. beberapa metode tersebut adalah: a. metode rata-rata sederhana indeks musiman dirumuskan sebagai berikut: indeks musim = 1) b. metode rata-rata dengan tren indeks musiman metode rata-rata dengan tren dirumuskan sebagai berikut: indeks musim = 100 2) c. metode rasio rata rata bergerak indeks musiman metode rasio rata-rata bergerak dirumuskan sebagai berikut: indeks musim = nilai rasio x faktor koreksi 3) di mana: nilai rasio: data asli/data rata-rata bergerak faktor koreksi: (100 x n)/jumlah rata-rata rasio selama n metode analisis tren linear dan non linear a. metode tren linear. metode utama yang dikenal dan digunakan secara luas dalam metode ini adalah regresi. berikut ini adalah rumusrumus regresi linear sederhana , dengan: ∑ ∑ ∑ ∑ ∑ 4) 5) peramalan penjualan air bersih ... (wahyu abdullah) 81 di mana: y adalah nilai peramalan; a adalah konstanta y; b adalah nilai kemiringan; n adalah jumlah data b. metode tren non linear (kuadratik). persamaan trend kuadratik dirumuskan sebagai berikut: y’= a + bx + cx² 6) koefisien a, b, dan c, dicari dengan rumus sebagai berikut: a = ∑ ∑ ∑ ∑ ∑ ∑ ² b = ∑ /∑ c = ∑ ∑ ∑ ∑ ∑ ² ukuran akurasi hasil peramalan nilai residual atau error (et) adalah perbedaan antara nilai actual dan nilai hasil peramalan, yaitu: et = yt – ŷt 7) di mana: et adalah residual (error)/ nilai kesalahan peramalan pada periode ke – t; yt adalah nilai aktual ŷt adalah nilai hasil peramalan; sedangkan nilai residual tersebut diperoleh beberapa ukuran hasil peramalan sebagai berikut: 1. nilai tengah galat kuadrat (mean squared deviation) msd = ∑ 8) 2. nilai tengah deviasi absolut (mean absolute deviation) mad = ∑| | 9) 3. nilai tengah galat persentase (mean absolute percentage error) mape = ∑ | | 10) secara umum, bila residual besarnya merata sepanjang pengamatan, maka msd yang sebaiknya digunakan. tetapi bila satu atau dua residual yang besar, maka mad yang sebaiknya digunakan. untuk melihat bias tidaknya peramalan maka digunakan mape, peramalan dikatakan tidak bias bila mpe = 0. matriks ife dan efe langkah-langkah yang harus dilakukan dalam membentuk matriks ife dan efe adalah: a) menyusun daftar faktor-faktor utama yang mempunyai dampak penting (critical success factors atau csf) untuk aspek internal dan eksternal perusahaan yang ditempatkan pada kolom pertama. b) penilaian bobot (weight) setiap factor strategis internal dan eksternal. dalam menentukan bobot setiap variabel digunakan skala 1,2 dan 3 dengan keterangan sebagai berikut: 1 = jika indikator horizontal kurang penting daripada indikator vertikal. 2 = jika indikator horizontal sama penting daripada indikator vertikal. 3 = jika indikator horizontal lebih penting daripada indikator vertikal. c) penentuan bobot setiap variabel diperoleh dengan menggunakan proporsi nilai setiap variabel dari jumlah nilai keseluruhan variabel dengan menggunakan rumus: ∑ 11) keterangan: ai adalah bobot variabel ke-i ; xi adalah nilai variabel ke-i; i = 1,2,3,…..,n; n adalah jumlah variabel; total bobot yang diberikan harus sama dengan 1,0. pembobotan ini kemudian ditempatkan pada kolom kedua matriks ife dan efe. matriks ie matriks ie didasarkan pada dua dimensi kunci, yaitu matriks ife yang diberi bobot pada sumbu x dan matriks efe yang diberikan bobot pada sumbu y. pada sumbu x, skor antara 1,00-1,99 menunjukkan posisi internal yang lemah, skor antara 2,00-2,99 menunjukkan rata-rata dan 3,00-4,00 kuat. pada sumbu y, skor antara 1,001,99 menunjukkan posisi eksternal yang rendah, skor antara 2,00-2,99 menunjukkan posisi jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 1, april 2014: 78-96 82 eksternal yang sedang dan 3,00-4,00 posisi eksternal yang tinggi. pembagian sel-sel dalam matriks ie dapat dilihat pada; matriks swot gambar 1. matriks swot unsur-unsur swot meliputi: s (strength): mengacu kepada keunggulan kompetitif dan kompetisi lainnya yang dapat mempengaruhi perusahaan pada pasar. w (weakness): hambatan yang membatasi pilihan-pilihan pada pengembangan strategi perusahaan. o (opportunity): menyediakan kondisi yang menguntungkan yang membatasi penghalang. t (threat): berhubungan dengan penghalang atau kondisi yang dapat menghalangi organisasi dalam mencapai tujuannya. analisis swot akan memberikan arah, pilihan dan perkembangan perusahaan sehingga diperoleh strategi yang tepat bagi perusahaan. gambar 2. analisis swot keterangan: kuadran 1 pada kuadran 1 merupakan situasi yang sangat menguntungkan bagi perusahaan karena perusahaan memiliki peluang dan kekuatan yang dapat dimanfaatkan sekaligus. dalam kondisi ini, strategi yang harus diterapkan adalah mendukung kebijakan pertumbuhan yang agresif. kuadran 2 pada kuadran 2, perusahaan menghadapi berbagai ancaman namun masih memiliki kekuatan dari segi internal. strategi yang harus dilakukan adalah menggunakan kekuatan untuk memanfaatkan peluang jangka panjang dengan cara strategi diversifikasi (produk atau pasar). kuadran 3 perusahaan menghadapi peluang pasar yang sangat besar, tetapi perusahaan pun menghadapi beberapa kendala atau kelemahan internal. fokus strategi perusahaan pada kuadran ini adalah meminimalkan masalah-masalah internal perusahaan sehingga dapat merebut peluang pasar yang baik. kuadran 4 pada kuadran 4, perusahaan mengalami situasi yang sangat tidak menguntungkan karena perusahaan menghadapi berbagai ancaman dan kelemahan internal. hasil dan pembahasan analisis time series penjualan air yang dilakukan oleh pdam kabupaten sleman sejak januari 2010 hingga november 2013 mengalami pergerakan yang fluktuatif namun cenderung menunjukkan peningkatan. penurunan yang terjadi pada bulan-bulan tertentu diakibatkan oleh pemakaian air yang tidak merata dan penyegelan dari pihak pdam kabupaten sleman. kemudian faktor lain yang juga berpengaruh adalah musim, pemakaian air dari pelanggan akan meningkat saat musim kemarau karena kebutuhan air sangat tinggi. kenaikan dan penurunan pemakaian air inilah yang berpengaruh pada naik turunnya penjualan air tiap bulannya. letusan gunung merapi juga mengakibatkan dampak yang cukup signifikan, hal ini terlihat pada pola data yang cenderung menurun mulai dari akhir tahun 2010 (november) sampai awal tahun 2011, erupsi telah mengakibatkan kehilangan air sampai 50 liter per detik peramalan penjualan air bersih ... (wahyu abdullah) 83 sehingga debit air berkurang dan kualitas air juga tercemar, hal ini mengakibatkan penurunan pemakaian air oleh konsumen dan mengurangi angka penjualan air. metode peramalan kuantitatif terbaik penjualan air oleh pdam kabupaten sleman. pdam kabupaten sleman memasarkan produk berupa air bersih yang dihasilkan dari beberapa sumber yang dimiliki, yaitu mata air umbul wadon, mata air tuk dandang, deep well, sallow well dan ipa (gamping). penjualan air selama empat tahun terakhir sejak januari 2010 sampai dengan november 2013 menunjukkan pergerakan naik turun, namun cenderung meningkat dari tahun ke tahun. berdasarkan data penjualan air pada pdam kabupaten sleman, diketahui bahwa pada tahun 2010, perusahaan dapat menjual air bersih untuk pelanggan di kabupaten sleman sebesar 3.708.630m³. pada tahun 2011 terjadi penurunan penjualan air sebesar 201.603m³, menjadi 3.507.027m³, hal ini dikarenakan letusan gunung merapi yang memberikan dampak yang cukup signifikan, karena erupsi telah mengakibatkan kehilangan air sampai 50 liter per detik sehingga debit air berkurang dan kualitas air juga tercemar, sehingga penurunan pemakaian air oleh konsumen dan mengurangi angka penjualan air. kenaikan kembali terjadi pada tahun 2012 sebesar 365.029m³ menjadi 3.872.056 m³. identifikasi pola data penjualan air bersih. peramalan penjualan air bersih yang dilakukan oleh pdam kabupaten sleman diawali dengan mengambil data dalam rentang waktu kurang lebih empat tahun. data series yang diperoleh selanjutnya digunakan untuk meramalkan penjualan di masa mendatang yang mendekati data aktualnya. data penjualan yang digunakan adalah data time series dalam kurun waktu kurang lebih empat tahun terakhir yang dimulai dari januari 2010 sampai november 2013. data yang digunakan merupakan data penjualan air bersih dalam satuan m³ dan merupakan data bulanan perusahaan. berdasarkan pada data deret waktu penjualan air bersih tersebut akan menggambarkan pola data yang terbentuk dari data penjualan air bersih pdam kabupaten sleman. penentuan pola data yang terbentuk tersebut akan membantu menentukan metode peramalan yang tepat. sedangkan panjang deret waktu yang digunakan sebanyak 47 bulan atau kurang lebih 4 tahun, yang digunakan untuk meramalkan penjualan jangka panjang, hal ini sesuai dengan pendapat render dan heizer (2001) peramalan jangka panjang yaitu peramalan yang memiliki rentang waktu biasanya tiga tahun atau lebih. pola data penjualan yang diperoleh kemudian diolah menggunakan program microsoft excel dan minitab 16, untuk mengetahui autocorrelation function (acf) dan plot data penjualan air bersih. grafik plot time series pergerakan volume penjualan air bersih pdam kabupaten sleman disajikan pada gambar 3. gambar 3. grafik pergerakan volume penjualan air bersih pdam jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 1, april 2014: 78-96 84 berdasarkan grafik 3, pergerakan indeks volume penjualan sebanyak 47 periode data (periode januari 2010 sampai november 2013) menunjukkan tidak ada unsure stasioner. hal ini dapat dilihat dari pergerakan data yang tidak berada di antara garis rata-rata atau konstan, namun lebih cenderung lebih menunjukkan unsure trend. volume penjualan tertinggi terjadi pada data period ke 47 yaitu sebesar 401.551 m³, yaitu pada bulan november, hal ini dikarenakan kebutuhan masyarakat akan konsumsi air bersih yang merupakan kebutuhan hidup pokok sangat besar dan jumlah penduduk yang semakin meningkat sehingga memungkinkan potensi peningkatan jumlah pelanggan. volume penjualan terendah terjadi pada data ke 15 sebesar 262.119m³, yaitu pada bulan maret 2011, hal ini dikarenakan pemakaian air yang tidak merata dan penyegelan dari pihak pdam kabupaten sleman. berdasarkan perhitungan rata-rata indeks musiman, diketahui persamaan rata-rata perilaku musiman per bulan pada setiap tahunnya dalam penjualan air bersih, yaitu terlihat pada pertengahan tahun awal yaitu februari (0,99112), maret (0,90798), april (0,96495), mei (0,98134), juni (0,99903), dan juli (0,98829) berada di bawah nilai normal trend yaitu 1,00. sedangkan pada pertengahan tahun akhir sampai awal tahun, kecuali desember (0,98786) yang merupakan akhir tahun, yaitu bulan agustus (1,01995), september (1,03404), oktober (1,05877), november (1,06116), desember (0,98786), dan januari (1,00550) secara normal berada di atas nilai tren (1,00). hal ini merupakan bukti bahwa musim mempengaruhi penjualan air bersih pdam kabupaten sleman. tren peningkatan penjualan yang terus terjadi juga merupakan bukti keberhasilan perusahaan dalam mengelola dan memasarkan produksi air bersih untuk memenuhi kebutuhan pokok masyarakat kabupaten sleman. selain melihat grafik pergerakan plot data volume penjualan dan uji statistik, dapat juga dilakukan dengan mengamati plot autocorrelation function (acf) dari deret penjualan air bersih periode januari 2010–november 2013. plot autokorelasi menunjukkan keeratan hubungan nilai variabel yang sama, namun variabel pada waktu yang berbeda. gambar 4 menunjukkan plot acf actual volume penjualan air bersih. berdasarkan plot autokorelasi (acf), pergerakan yang terbentuk cenderung secara berangsur mendekati nol yang mengandung unsure trend sesuai dengan pendapat firdaus (2006) yaitu unsure trend diketahui dengan adanya beda kala pertama tinggi dan berbeda dengan nol secara signifikan, lalu turun mendekati nol saat series meningkat. sedangkan untuk mengetahui ada tidaknya distribusi yang sesuai dengan distribusi data yang ada digunakan grafik distributional analysis probability plot, yaitu berdasarkan diagram plot penjualan air bersih periode januari 2010 sampai november 2013. berdasarkan diagram yang terbentuk dapat diketahui bahwa data time series penjualan air bersih pdam kabupaten sleman menunjukkan data yang berada di sekitar garis lurus, hal ini berarti data pentabel 2. rata-rata indeks musiman setiap bulan penjualan air bersih periode januari 2010 sampai dengan november 2013 bulan/tahun 2010 2011 2012 2013 rata-rata januari 1,00550 1,00550 1,00550 1,00550 1,00550 februari 0,99112 0,99112 0,99112 0,99112 0,99112 maret 0,90798 0,90798 0,90798 0,90798 0,90798 april 0,96495 0,96495 0,96495 0,96495 0,96495 mei 0,98134 0,98134 0,98134 0,98134 0,98134 juni 0,99903 0,99903 0,99903 0,99903 0,99903 juli 0,98829 0,98829 0,98829 0,98829 0,98829 agustus 1,01995 1,01995 1,01995 1,01995 1,01995 september 1,03404 1,03404 1,03404 1,03404 1,03404 oktober 1,05877 1,05877 1,05877 1,05877 1,05877 november 1,06116 1,06116 1,06116 1,06116 1,06116 desember 0,98786 0,98786 0,98786 0,98786 peramalan penjualan air bersih ... (wahyu abdullah) 85 jualan air bersih pdam kabupaten sleman januari 2010 sampai november 2013 bersifat normal. grafik normal probability plot penjualan air bersih pdam kabupaten sleman dapat dilihat pada gambar 5 (lampiran). metode peramalan kuantitatif penjualan air bersih metode peramalan lainnya yang tetap digunakan, yaitu metode trend linear dan trend non linear. setelah diketahui nilai kesalahan (error) terkecil dengan melihat nilai msd (mean squared deviation) maka akan diketahui metode peramalan yang terbaik untuk meramalkan volume penjualan air bersih pada pdam kabupaten sleman satu tahun mendatang yaitu tahun 2014. berikut merupakan metode peramalan time series yang digunakan dalam studi ini. metode indeks musiman perhitungan menggunakan metode indeks musiman ini dilakukan pada bulan yang sama namun pada tahun yang berbeda yaitu selama kurun waktu + 4 tahun (2010-2013). namun, dalam studi, cara yang diterapkan hampir sama dengan metode analisis rata-rata bergerak (moving average), yaitu menetapkan bahwa ramalan periode mendatang merupakan nilai rataan data penjualan air bersih dengan mengeluarkan nilai dari periode yang terlama dan memasukkan nilai dari periode terbaru dari sekelompok data yang jumlahnya konstan. banyaknya data disebut ordo (seasonal length), sedangkan penentuan ordo dapat dilakukan dengan cara coba-coba (trial and error), hal ini dimaksudkan untuk menentukan nilai kesalahan yang terkecil. dalam studi ini menggunakan ordo 12 (ma= 12) hal ini dikarenakan ordo 12 memiliki nilai kesalahan (error) terkecil. perbandingan hasil perhitungan menggunakan metode indeks musiman dengan berbagai macam ordo ditampilkan pada tabel 3. tabel 3. perbandingan hasil perhitungan metode moving average (ma) dengan berbagai macam ordo seasonal length nilai msd mad mape 2 467143807 18276 6 3 448478811 18263 6 4 447423575 17609 6 6 440877399 18559 6 12 336634442 16203 5 berdasarkan hasil metode indeks musiman berordo 12, diketahui nilai kesalahan di antaranya adalah nilai msd sebesar 336634442, yang menunjukkan bahwa metode penyimpangan yang terjadi dalam metode ini adalah sebesar gambar 4. plot acf dari data penjualan air per. januari 2010november 2013 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 1, april 2014: 78-96 86 336634442, nilai mad sebesar 16203 yang berarti penyimpangan absolut yang terjadi sebesar 16203, dan nilai mape sebesar 6 yang menunjukkan besarnya persentase penyimpangan sebesar 6%. pergerakan grafik peramalan menggunakan metode indeks musiman disajikan pada gambar 6. metode analisis tren penggunaan metode tren dalam studi ini adalah dengan metode trend analysis yang terdapat pada program minitab 16, sehingga mudah untuk menganalisis dan menampilkan data yang mengandung unsur tren. berdasarkan pola hubungan linear antara penjualan air sebagai variabel dependen dan periode waktu sebagai variabel independen, terlihat bahwa hubungan variabel tersebut berada di antara garis lurus, berarti residual berdistribusi normal dengan rata-rata mendekati nol (0). berdasarkan perhitungan model regresi linear sederhana menggunakan metode trend analysis menghasilkan persamaan yt = 281898 + 1490t; dengan nilai msd sebesar 464765613, nilai mad sebesar 18281, dan nilai mape sebesar 6. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa nilai penyimpangan pada metode ini sebesar 464765613, nilai penyimpangan absolut sebesar 18281, dan besarnya persentase penyimpangan sebesar 6%. pergerakan grafik peramalan menggunakan metode trend analysis dengan model regresi linear sederhana dengan volume penjualan air bersih sebagai dependent variable dan periode waktu sebagai independent variable disajikan pada gambar 7 (lampiran). garis tidak lurus tersebut merupakan garis yang mendekati titik-titik pergerakan dari data historis jumlah penjualan air bersih. berdasarkan perhitungan trend analysis menggunakan model nonlinear sederhana diketahui persamaan yaitu: yt = 314010 + 2442 t + 81,9 t² 12) sedangkan nilai kesalahan dari perhitungan trend analysis menggunakan model nonlinear (kuadratik) yaitu nilai msd sebesar 282257693, nilai mad sebesar 13141 dan nilai mape sebesar 4. hal ini menunjukkan adanya penyimpangan menggunakan metode ini sebesar 282257693, besarnya penyimpangan absolut 13141 dan besarnya persentase penyimpangan sebesar 4%. pergerakan grafik peramalan menggunakan metode trend analysis dengan model regresi nonlinear sederhana (kuadratik) dengan volume penjualan air bersih sebagai dependent variable dan periode waktu sebagai independent variable disajikan pada gambar 8 (lampiran). pemilihan metode peramalan kuantitatif terbaik pemilihan metode peramalan terhadap penjualan air bersih pdam kabupaten sleman yaitu dengan melakukan perhitungan dan pengamatan terhadap perilaku data series gambar 6. grafik analisis model indeks musiman gambar 6. grafik analisis model indeks musiman peramalan penjualan air bersih ... (wahyu abdullah) 87 penjualan air bersih selama + 4 tahun selama periode januari 2010 sampai november 2013. berdasarkan hasil penerapan metode peramalan kuantitatif, peramalan yang terbaik menunjukkan bahwa metode tren nonlinear (kuadratik), karena metode tersebut memiliki nilai msd yang kecil dibandingkan dengan metode lainnya. hal ini dikarenakan semakin kecil nilai msd suatu peramalan maka semakin mendekati nilai aktualnya. tetapi, karena data penjualan air bersih pdam kabupaten sleman mengandung unsure musiman, maka metode yang akan dipakai adalah metode analisis musiman, hal ini dikarenakan grafik penjualan air bersih tidak bergerak secara linear meningkat, akan tetapi sangat dipengaruhi oleh musim (musim kemarau dan musim penghujan). tabel 4 menunjukkan hasil perhitungan beberapa metode paramalan penjualan air bersih pdam kabupaten sleman. penggunaan metode tersebut sudah mengikuti prosedur yang berlaku, deret waktu yang digunakan dalam peramalan penjualan air bersih selama + 4 tahun yaitu dari januari 2010 sampai november 2013 dengan jumlah observasi sebanyak 47 data, studi dilakukan dengan mengambil data bulanan perusahaan. pengambilan data bulanan dimaksudkan untuk mengamati perilaku penjualan air bersih yang terjadi selama satu bulan kegiatan usaha. berdasarkan uji statistik metode tren kuadratik (lampiran) menunjukkan bahwa nilai rsquared sebesar 67,6 persen yang menunjukkan bahwa pengaruh periode waktu terhadap penjualan air bersih sebesar 67,6 persen, sedangkan 32,4 persen dipengaruhi faktor lain. level toleransi yang digunakan adalah 5 persen berdasarkan perhitungan tren kuadratik diketahui nilai dari f uji yaitu 46,01. sedangkan besarnya uji p-value menunjukkan angka 0,000. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa semua parameter model regresi statistik bernilai 0. berdasarkan grafik fited line plot, model kuadratik menunjukkan bahwa distribusi data menyebar merata sepanjang garis rata-rata. artinya model regresi kuadratik ini dapat digunakan dan mewakili data peramalan. analisis tingkat peramalan penjualan air bersih satu tahun mendatang setelah melakukan perhitungan menggunakan metode-metode peramalan time series (deret waktu berkala) untuk melakukan peramalan penjualan air bersih pada pdam kabupaten sleman diketahui bahwa metode analisis musiman (seasonal) adalah metode terbaik yang dapat digunakan karena data yang diolah mengandung unsur musiman. kemudian metode tersebut dapat dijadikan perencanaan atau acuan perusahaan dalam meramalkan penjualan air bersih 13 bulan mendatang yaitu desember 2013 sampai desember 2014, lihat tabel 5 (lampiran). berdasarkan hasil perhitungan metode musiman, diketahui terjadi penurunan penjualan air bersih pada desember 2013, dari bulan sebelumnya yaitu november dengan nilai 401551m³ menjadi 345055m³ hal ini dikarenakan pada bulan november, perusahaan mengadakan promosi dengan memberikan diskon bagi pelanggan, maka hal tersebut berdampak pada tingginya angka penjualan pada bulan tersebut, lalu pada bulan selanjutnya akan kembali menurun, tetapi terjadi peningkatan kembali yakni dimulai pada awal awal januari 2014 yaitu pada periode 49 menjadi sebesar 352546 m3 lalu kemudian turun kembali pada bulan februari dan maret, kemudian naik kembali pada bulan mei dan april. hal ini dikarenakan faktor musim mempengaruhi penjualan air bersih pdam kabupaten sleman. sehingga perusahaan perlu melakukan peramalan tabel 4. nilai perhitungan beberapa metode peramalan penjualan air bersih no metode peramalan nilai msd nilai mad nilai mape ket. 1 metode tren linear metode tren nonlinear (kuadratik) 464765613 282257693 18281 13141 6 4 2 metode analisis musiman 336634442 16203 5 t= 12 keterangan: t= ordo jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 1, april 2014: 78-96 88 agar memiliki acuan atau gambaran besarnya persediaan air bersih sebagai perencanaan mengantisipasi besarnya permintaan pada bulan-bulan tersebut di tahun 2014. melalui kegiatan peramalan penjualan air bersih pada pdam kabupaten sleman dapat dijadikan rekomendasi kepada departemen terkait seperti pemda dan dprd kabupaten sleman sebagai pihak yang membawahi pdam kabupaten sleman selaku bumd, dengan kegiatan seperti pengoptimalisasian produksi air bersih. kegiatan tersebut dimulai dari industri hulu seperti kegiatan produksi dan pengolahan, sampai hilir seperti pemasaran dan pendistribusian hasil air bersih dari sumber air. dengan mengetahui peramalan penjualan ini juga dapat dijadikan langkah untuk meningkatkan produksi dengan cara ekstensifikasi, intensifikasi, serta penanganan dan pengolahan yang optimal, sehingga hasil produksi air bersih dapat memenuhi kebutuhan konsumen. melalui perencanaan penjualan dapat diketahui kebutuhan perusahaan terhadap bahan baku, tenaga kerja, keuangan, peralatan pendukung dan sumber daya lainnya yang dibutuhkan untuk memenuhi permintaan air bersih (ahmad tohir, 2011), sesuai dengan jumlah peramalan penjualan yang dilakukan untuk periode januari 2014 sampai desember 2014 yaitu sebesar 4.296.015m³ menggunakan metode musiman. identifikasi kekuatan, kelemahan, peluang dan ancaman 1. aspek teknis dan operasional berdasarkan seluruh sistem yang ada saat ini, jumlah rata-rata kapasitas terpasang adalah 353,83 l/dt, sedangkan kapasitas yang dioperasikan 295,27 l/dt, sehingga masih ada idle capacity sebesar 58,56 l/dt. jam produksi air minum berjalan antara 17-24 jam/hari, sedangkan operasi distribusi berjalan 24 jam/hari. system distribusi yang digunakan oleh pdam kabupaten sleman adalah menggunakan gravitasi 72 l/dt dan pompa 171 l/dt. berdasarkan sumber air yang digunakan, maka pemanfaatan mata air 86,7 l/dt, sumur bor 143 l/dt dan sallow well sebanyak 180,7 l/dt, dan ipa sebanyak 20 l/dt. kapasitas sumber pdam kabupaten sleman saat ini mencapai rata-rata 417 l/dt dengan dua sumber air baku, yakni air permukaan yang berasal dari mata air, ipa, sumur dangkal, dan sumur dalam dari beberapa sumur eksplorasi pdam kabupaten sleman, lihat tabel 6. tabel 6. kapasitas produksi pdam kabupaten sleman tahun 2013 sampai bulan november no uraian kapasitas l/detik m3/tahun 1. kapasitas sumber air baku 353,83 2. kapasitas produksi 295,27 3. produksi 6.380.675 4. distribusi 6.105.746 5. air terjual 3.875.357 6. kehilangan air 1.829.621 tabel 7 berikut adalah tabel swot dari pdam kabupaten sleman mengenai hal-hal tabel 7. matriks swot produksi pdam kabupaten sleman kekuatan kelemahan internal 1. sumur bor ada 18 buah, shallow well 23 unit, mata air 2 buah (dg kapasitas produksi 385 lit/dt), ipa, dan mobil tanki 1 buah (kap. 5000 lt) 1. tingginya angka kehilangan air 2. pelayanan yang belum mencapai 24 jam merata 3. rasio cakupan pelayanan masih rendah peluang ancaman eksternal 1. tersedianya pangsa pasar potensial yakni kawasan perkotaan yang tumbuh cukup pesat 2. tersedianya sumber air permukaan yang cukup banyak 3. ketersediaan lahan kas desa yang dapat disewa untuk pembangunan prasarana ipa 1. letusan g. merapi merusak sumber air pdam 2. konflik pengelolaan sumber-sumber air antara masyarakat dan pemerintah 3. perubahan musim yang mempengaruhi kualitas air peramalan penjualan air bersih ... (wahyu abdullah) 89 yang berkaitan dengan teknis dan operasional. 2. aspek administrasi dan keuangan tabel 8 (lampiran) adalah tabel swot dari pdam kabupaten sleman mengenai hal-hal yang berkaitan dengan administrasi dan keuangan. 3. aspek sumber daya manusia sumber daya manusia merupakan aspek yang sangat penting dalam suatu perusahaan, karena sumber daya manusia adalah salah satu faktor internal yang sangat menentukan pertumbuhan dan perkembangan perusahaan. tabel 9 adalah tabel swot dari pdam kabupaten sleman mengenai hal-hal yang berkaitan dengan sumber daya manusia. tabel 9. matriks swot sdm pdam kabupaten sleman kekuatan kelemahan internal 1. strata pendidikan sdm cukup memadai. 1. profesionalisme karyawan yang kurang memadai. peluang ancaman eksternal 1. adanya dukungan dari masyarakat berupa swadaya masyarakat 2. peraturan perundangan yang mengatur kerjasama antar daerah dan kerjasama swastapemerintah masih rumit a. matriks ife kekuatan yang dimiliki oleh pdam kabupaten sleman, adalah perda tentang pendirian pdam, ketentuan-ketentuan pokok badan pengawas, direksi dan pegawai pdam kabupaten sleman, dan pengelolaan pdam, pendapatan retribusi yang semakin mendekati bep (impas), kemudian sumur bor ada 18 buah, shallow well 23 unit, mata air 2 buah (dengan kapasitas produksi 385 lit/dt), ipa, dan mobil tanki 1 buah (kap. 5000 lt), lalu dukungan pemda & dprd dalam kebijakan cukup baik, serta strata pendidikan sdm cukup memadai. sedangkan kelemahan yang ada pada perusahaan adalah tingginya angka kehilangan air. pelayanan air yang belum mencapai 24 jam secara merata, kemudian tarif yang belum cost recovery, rasio cakupan layanan yang rendah serta akuisisi pelanggan yang dilayani oleh pdam kota yogyakarta terlalu lama penyelesaiannya. berdasarkan tabel 10 (lampiran) matriks ife menunjukkan bahwa faktor kekuatan pdam kabupaten sleman yang memiliki skor tertinggi adalah unit produksi yang cukup memadai dengan skor sebesar 0,444. skor tertinggi menunjukkan faktor kekuatan tersebut mempunyai pengaruh yang besar bagi pengembangan pelayanan pdam kabupaten sleman. pendapatan retribusi yang semakin mendekati bep mendapatkan skor terbesar kedua, yaitu 0,383, dimana hal ini sangat berpengaruh dalam pengembangan usaha perusahaan. strata pendidikan sdm cukup memadai mendapatkan skor sebesar 0,211, sedangkan dukungan pemda & dprd dalam kebijakan cukup baik mendpatkan skor 0,183. adapun skor untuk adanya perda tentang pendirian pdam adalah sebesar 0,267. tarif yang belum cost recovery, mendapatkan skor 0,278. kemudian kelemahan lainnya akuisisi pelanggan yang dilayani oleh pdam kota yogyakarta terlalu lama penyelesaiannya dengan skor 0,217. rasio cakupan layanan yang rendah dan penyaluran air yang belum mencapai rata-rata 24 jam mendapatkan skor 0,283, sementara tingginya angka kehilangan air, yang menjadi masalah umum bagi seluruh pdam di indonesia mendapatkan skor 0,128. secara keseluruhan, total nilai skor terbobot dari enam kekuatan dan enam kelemahan dalam matriks ife adalah sebesar 2,678. dengan demikian, kondisi internal perusahaan berada di atas rata-rata yaitu 2,50. berdasarkan total nilai terbobot tersebut, dapat disimpulkan bahwa pdam kabupaten sleman berada pada posisi yang cukup kuat dalam memanfaatkan kekuatan yang dimiliki dan cukup mampu untuk mengatasi kelemahan. b. matriks efe matriks efe digunakan untuk mengetahui seberapa besar peranan faktor-faktor eksternal jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 1, april 2014: 78-96 90 yang terdapat pada perusahaan. matriks efe disusun berdasarkan hasil identifikasi dari kondisi lingkungan eksternal perusahaan berupa peluang dan ancaman yang dihadapi oleh pdam kabupaten sleman. hasil identifikasi dari kondisi lingkungan eksternal diperoleh sebanyak lima peluang dan tiga ancaman. berdasarkan tabel 11 (lampiran) matriks efe, peluang terbesar bagi pdam kabupaten sleman adalah adanya potensi pangsa pasar yang cukup besar dan sumber air baku yang cukup banyak, dengan skor sebesar 0,511. skor tetinggi ini mengindikasikan bahwa proyeksi jumlah penduduk kabupaten sleman yang terus meningkat memberikan peluang berupa adanya pangsa pasar yang cukup potensial untuk meningkatkan jumlah pelanggan bagi pdam kabupaten sleman, karena peningkatan jumlah pelanggan akan berdampak besar pada pemasukan pendapatan perusahaan dan daerah. peluang terbesar kedua yang dimiliki oleh pdam kabupaten sleman adalah adanya investor dan mitra usaha untuk pengembangan perusahaan, yang mana mempunyai besar skor sebanyak 0,383. adanya lahan kas desa juga cukup membantu pengembangan pdam dengan skor sebesar 0,317. sedangkan peluang terkecil adalah adanya tarif premium dari pembangunan zamp dengan skor sebesar 0,122. ancaman cukup besar yang harus dihadapi oleh pdam kabupaten sleman adalah letusan gunung merapi yang dapat terjadi sewaktu-waktu, letusan ini dapat menyebabkan rusaknya beberapa unit instalasi produksi air baku seperti yang sudah pernah terjadi pada tahun 2010 lalu, skor yang didapat adalah 0,156. ancaman lainnya yang juga cukup menyulitkan adalah faktor perubahan musim dimana skornya adalah 0,217, skor ini adalah yang tertinggi di antara ancaman-ancaman lainnya. ancaman lain yang juga tak kalah besar adalah konflik pengelolaan sumber air baku dengan skor sebesar 0,244, serta adanya ekspansi industri air minum kemasan dengan skor 0,061. secara keseluruhan, total nilai skor terbobot dari lima peluang dan lima ancaman adalah sebesar 2,639 atau berada di atas nilai rata-rata yaitu 2,50. berdasarkan total nilai terbobot tersebut, dapat disimpulkan bahwa pdam kabupaten sleman cukup mampu merespon dan memanfaatkan peluang yang dimiliki dengan sebaik-baiknya untuk menghadapi ancaman yang ada. c. matriks ie matriks ie disusun berdasarkan hasil analisis faktor internal dan factor eksternal yang digabungkan dari matriks ife dan matriks efe. matriks ie pdam kabupaten sleman dapat dilihat pada tabel 12. hasil analisis faktor internal menggunakan matriks ife diperoleh total nilai skor terbobot sebesar 2,272. sedangkan hasil analisis faktor eksternal menggunakan matriks efe diperoleh total nilai skor sebesar 2,794. berdasarkan total nilai skor terbobot dari matriks ife dan efe tersebut menempatkan pdam kabupaten sleman pada sel nomor v dalam matriks ie. strategi yang dapat diambil pada posisi sel tersebut adalah adalah strategi hold and maintain (pertahankan dan pelihara). tabel 12. skor total ife & efe d. menentukan strategi dengan matriks swot matriks swot disusun berdasarkan hasil identifikasi faktor internal dan faktor eksternal perusahaan meliputi kekuatan dan kelemahan yang dimiliki perusahaan serta peluang dan ancaman yang dihadapi oleh perusahaan. penentuan matriks swot diterapkan untuk beberapa aspek yang sangat berpengaruh terhadap perusahaan, yaitu aspek teknis dan operasional, aspek administrasi dan keuangan, serta aspek sdm. pemaduan faktor internal dan eksternal perusahaan dari beberapa variabel peramalan penjualan air bersih ... (wahyu abdullah) 91 tersebut dalam matriks swot dapat menghasilkan empat set kemungkinan alternative strategy, yaitu strategi s-o, strategi s-t, strategi wo dan strategi w-t. adapun rincian mengenai strategi yang dihasilkan dari matriks swot akan dijelaskan setelah mengetahui tabel swot dari pdam kabupaten sleman. berikut ini adalah tabel swot dari pdam kabupaten sleman dari beberapa aspek yang telah diuraikan sebelumnya. 1. strategi s-o (strength-opportunity) strategi s-o adalah strategi yang menggunakan kekuatan yang dimiliki perusahaan untuk memanfaatkan peluang yang ada. strategi yang dihasilkan adalah meningkatkan cakupan dan kualitas layanan khususnya pada kawasan perkotaan yang tumbuh pesat dan rawan pencemaran serta mewujudkan layanan air minum perpipaan premium pada kawasan kota khusus. strategi ini dilakukan dengan menggunakan kekuatan dan peluang yang dimiliki pdam kabupaten sleman. kekuatan dan peluang itu adalah perda tentang pendirian pdam, unit instalasi yang lengkap, tersedianya pangsa pasar potensial yakni kawasan perkotaan yang tumbuh cukup pesat, serta tersedianya sumber air permukaan yang cukup banyak. 2. strategi w-o (weakness-opportunities) strategi w-o adalah strategi untuk mengatasi atau meminimalkan kelemahan yang dimiliki perusahaan untuk memanfaatkan peluang yang ada di luar perusahaan. strategi w-o yang dihasilkan adalah penggantian water meter yang rusak dan berumur > 4 th, mengidentifikasi faktor-faktor yang mengakibatkan kehilangan air, dan peningkatan kapasitas sdm guna meningkatkan layanan prima dan perluasan cakupan layanan. strategi ini dilakukan dengan menggunakan peluang yang dimiliki pdam kabupaten sleman untuk mengatasi kelemahan. peluang tersebut adalah ketersediaan lahan kas desa yang dapat disewa untuk pembangunan prasarana ipa dan banyak investor yang mengajak kerjasama pengembangan. sedangkan kelemahannya adalah tingginya angka kehilangan air, pelayanan yang belum mencapai 24 jam secara merata, serta rasio cakupan pelayanan masih rendah. 3. strategi s-t strategi s-t adalah strategi yang menggunakan kekuatan perusahaan untuk mengatasi ancaman yang dihadapi oleh perusahaan. strategi s-t yang dihasilkan adalah memaksimalkan pemanfaatan sumber air baku yang berasal dari sallow well dan sungai, kemudian meningkatkan pengamanan sumber-sumber air pdam, baik dari ancaman pencemaran maupun bencana alam (letusan merapi), serta melakukan sosialisasi kepada masyarakat akan pentingnya konsumsi air bersih. strategi ini dilakukan dengan menggunakan kekuatan yang dimiliki pdam kabupaten sleman untuk menghadapi ancaman. kekuatan tersebut adalah pendapatan retribusi mendekati bep (impas) dan dukungan pemda & dprd dalam kebijakan cukup baik, dan strata pendidikan sdm cukup memadai, yang kemudian digunakan untuk menghadapi beberapa ancaman antara lain resistensi terhadap kenaikan tarif berkala oleh legislative/masyarakat, perubahan musim yang mempengaruhi kualitas air, letusan g. merapi merusak sumber air pdam, ekspansi industri air minum kemasan pada ladang-ladang sumber pdam, serta konflik pengelolaan sumber-sumber air antara masyarakat dan pemerintah. 4. strategi w-t strategi w-t adalah strategi yang meminimalkan kelemahan internal perusahaan dan menghindari ancaman. strategi w-t yang dihasilkan adalah segera menyelesaikan masalah (administrasi) akuisisi pelanggan di wilayah pdam kabupaten sleman yang dilayani oleh pdam kota yogyakarta, serta dukungan atau bimbingan teknis kepada air perpipaan air bersih di pedesaan di luar sistem pdam. strategi ini dilakukan dengan meminimalisir beberapa kekurangan pdam kabupaten sleman yaitu rasio cakupan pelayanan masih rendah, dan akuisisi pelanggan yang dilayani oleh pdam kota yogyakarta terlalu lama penyelesaiannya. kemudian strategi ini juga digunakan untuk menghadapi ancaman-ancaman yang dimiliki oleh pdam kabupaten sleman, jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 1, april 2014: 78-96 92 yaitu ekspansi industri air minum kemasan pada ladang-ladang sumber pdam, dan konflik pengelolaan sumber-sumber air antara masyarakat dan pemerintah. simpulan berdasarkan hasil analisis data dan pembahasan yang telah diuraikan di atas, maka dapat diambil kesimpulan bahwa data aktual penjualan air bersih pdam kabupaten sleman selama kurang lebih 4 tahun periode januari 2010 sampai november 2013, diketahui memiliki unsure trend (cenderung meningkat) dan unsure musiman. unsure trend yang berangsur-angsur meningkat terjadi karena permintaan masyarakat terhadap air bersih selalu meningkat, hal ini dikarenakan air bersih merupakan konsumsi pokok harian bagi masyarakat khususnya rumah tangga. unsur musiman diakibatkan oleh perubahan cuaca yang mempengaruhi ketersediaan debit air baku yang dapat diproduksi, dan juga sekaligus mempengaruhi kualitas air yang tersedia di beberapa sumber air baku. karena pola data lebih cenderung mengalami unsure musiman, maka metode analisis time series yang digunakan adalah metode indeks musiman, tetapi untuk perbandingan, maka analisis tren linear dan nonlinear juga digunakan dalam studi ini, karena pola data penjualan air bersih pdam kabupaten sleman juga mengandung unsure trend (secara berangsur mengalami peningkatan). berdasarkan perhitungan metode peramalan menggunakan metode indeks musiman, diketahui bahwa jumlah total penjualan air bersih di tahun 2014 adalah sebesar 4.296.015m3, atau meningkat sebesar 75603 m3 dari tahun 2013 yang berjumlah total 4.220.412 m3. dengan mengetahui peramalan penjualan ini juga dapat dijadikan langkah untuk meningkatkan produksi dengan cara ekstensifikasi, intensifikasi, serta penanganan dan pengolahan yang optimal, sehingga hasil produksi air bersih dapat memenuhi kebutuhan konsumen. hasil identifikasi lingkungan pdam kabupaten sleman, yaitu: pertama, hasil identifikasi lingkungan internal, yang merupakan kekuatan pdam kabupaten sleman adalah perda tentang pendirian pdam, pendapatan retribusi yang semakin mendekati bep, unit produksi yang cukup memadai, dukungan pemda & dprd dalam kebijakan cukup baik, dan strata pendidikan sdm cukup memadai. sedangkan kelemahan yang dimiliki oleh perusahaan adalah tingginya angka kehilangan air, pelayanan air yang belum mencapai 24 jam secara merata, tarif yang belum cost recovery, rasio cakupan layanan yang rendah, dan akuisisi pelanggan yang dilayani oleh pdam kota yogyakarta terlalu lama penyelesaiannya; kedua, hasil identifikasi lingkungan eksternal, yang merupakan peluang yang dimiliki oleh pdam kabupaten sleman adalah pangsa pasar yang potensial, sumber air baku yang cukup banyak, tersedianya lahan kas desa, adanya investor dan mitra usaha, dan tarif premium dari layanan zamp. adapun ancaman yang harus dihadapi oleh pdam kabupaten sleman adalah resistensi terhadap kenaikan tariff, perubahan musim, ekspansi industri air minum kemasan, letusan g. merapi, serta konflik pengelolaan sumber air baku. berdasarkan hasil analisis matriks ie, diketahui bahwa pdam kabupaten sleman berada dalam posisi hold & mentain, artinya pertahankan dan kembangkan, strategi terbaik yang harus dilakukan adalah inovasi produk dan penetrasi pasar. saran-saran yang dapat diberikan kepada pdam kabupaten sleman untuk meningkatkan pelayanan air bersih kepada masyarakat adalah: 1) perencanaan penjualan air bersih menggunakan metode kuantitatif time series dengan metode indeks musiman dapat digunakan oleh pihak perusahaan karena dapat membantu perusahaan dalam merencanakan kegiatan penjualan air bersih; 2) pdam kabupaten sleman perlu menganalisis setiap kekuatan, kelemahan, peluang, dan ancaman yang dimiliki oleh perusahaan karena dapat membantu dalam penetapan kebijakan strategis untuk perkembangan perusahaan; 3) pdam kabupaten sleman diharapkan dapat meningkatkan cakupan dan kualitas layanan khususnya pada kawasan perkotaan yang tumbuh pesat dan rawan pencemaran serta mewujudkan layanan air minum perpipaan premium pada kawasan kota khusus, mengganti water meter yang rusak dan berumur > 4 th, mengidentifikasi faktor-faktor yang mengaikbatkan kehilangan air, meningkatkan kapasitas sdm guna meningkatkan layanan prima dan perluasan cakupan layanan, memaksimalkan peramalan penjualan air bersih ... (wahyu abdullah) 93 pemanfaatan sumber air baku yang berasal dari sallow well dan sungai, meningkatkan pengamanan sumber-sumber air pdam, baik dari ancaman pencemaran maupun bencana alam (letusan merapi), melakukan sosialisasi kepada masyarakat akan pentingnya konsumsi air bersih menyelesaikan masalah (administrasi) akuisisi pelanggan di wilayah pdam kabupaten sleman yang dilayani oleh pdam kota yogyakarta, serta memberikan dukungan atau bimbingan teknis kepada air perpipaan air bersih di pedesaan di luar sistem pdam; 4) hasil dari peramalan dalam studi ini dapat dijadikan dasar dalam pengambilan keputusan strategis sebagai dasar perencanaan penjualan air bersih untuk tahun 2014 dan tahun-tahun berikutnya. sedangkan untuk melengkapi studi ini ada baiknya dilakukan studi lanjutan. daftar pustaka akhmat, t. (2011). analisis peramalan penjualan minyak sawit kasar atau crude palm oil (cpo) pada pt. khasrisma pemasaran bersama (kpb) nusantara. skripsi. uin jakarta. bappeda kabupaten sleman. (2010). buku putih sanitasi kawasan perkotaan kabupaten sleman. yogyakarta: bappeda. bappeda kabupaten sleman. (2010). buku putih sanitasi kawasan perkotaan kabupaten sleman. yogyakarta: bappeda. dian suminnar. (2007). analisis formulasi strategi pada perusahaan daerah air minum (pdam) tirta pakuan bogor. skripsi. bogor: institut pertanian bogor. dinas pekerjaan umum cipta karya. (2007). petunjuk teknis pengembangan spam sederhana. jakarta: dinas pu. gujarati, d.n. dan dawn c.p. (2012). dasardasar ekonometrika. buku 2, edisi 5, terjemahan raden carlos mangunsong. jakarta: salemba empat gujarati, d.n. (2012). dasar-dasar ekonometrika, buku 1, edisi 5, terjemahan eugenia mardanugraha, dkk. jakarta: salemba empat hermanto dan saptutyningsih, e. (2002). electronic data processing (edp), yogyakarta: upfe umy. junaidi chaniago. (2013). http:// junaidi chaniago. wordpress.com/tag/minitab/. diakses tanggal 7 desember 2013. lampiran gambar 5. probability plot jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 1, april 2014: 78-96 94 454035302520151051 400000 375000 350000 325000 300000 275000 250000 index p e n ju a la n ma pe 6 ma d 18281 msd 463765613 a ccuracy measures a ctual fits variable trend analysis plot for penjualan linear trend model yt = 281898 + 1490*t gambar 7. grafik trend analysis model regresi linear gambar 8. grafik trend analysis model regresi nonlinear tabel 5. peramalan penjualan air bersih desember 2013–desember 2014, menggunakan metode musiman periode tahun bulan peramalan (m³) 48 2013 desember 345055 49 2014 januari 352546 50 2014 february 348816 51 2014 maret 320757 52 2014 april 342159 53 2014 mei 349269 54 2014 juni 356886 55 2014 juli 354357 56 2014 agustus 367059 57 2014 september 373497 58 2014 oktober 383831 59 2014 november 386101 60 2014 desember 360738 peramalan penjualan air bersih ... (wahyu abdullah) 95 tabel 8. matriks swot administrasi pdam kabupaten sleman kekuatan kelemahan internal 1. perda tentang: pendirian pdam, ketentuanketentuan pokok badan pengawas, direksi & pegawai pdam kab. sleman, dan pengelolaan pdam 2. pendapatan retribusi mendekati bep (impas) 3. dukungan pemda & dprd dalam kebijakan cukup baik. 1. tariff belum cost recovery 2. akuisisi pelanggan yang dilayani oleh pdam kota yogyakarta terlalu lama penyelesaiannya peluang ancaman eksternal 1. banyak investor yang mengajak kerjasama pengembangan 2. tarif premium dari layanan zamp (siap minum) 1. resistensi terhadap kenaikan tariff berkala oleh legislatif/ masyarakat 2. ekspansi industry air minum kemasan pada ladang-ladang sumber pdam tabel 10. ife pdam kabupaten sleman faktor strategi internal bobot rating skor terbobot kekuatan perda tentang pendirian pdam 0,067 4,00 0,267 pendapatan retribusi yang semakin mendekati bep 0,128 3,00 0,383 unit produksi yang cukup memadai 0,111 4,00 0,444 dukungan pemda & dprd dalam kebijakan cukup baik 0,061 3,00 0,183 strata pendidikan sdm cukup memadai 0,106 2,00 0,211 kelemahan tingginya angka kehilangan air 0,128 1,00 0,128 pelayanan air yang belum mencapai 24 jam secara merata 0,094 3,00 0,283 tarif yang belum cost recovery 0,139 2,00 0,278 rasio cakupan layanan yang rendah 0,094 3,00 0,283 akuisisi pelanggan yang dilayani oleh pdam kota yogyakarta terlalu lama penyelesaiannya 0,072 3,00 0,217 jumlah 1,000 2,678 tabel 11. efe pdam kabupaten sleman faktor strategi eksternal bobot rating skor terbobot peluang tersedianya pangsa pasar potensial 0,128 4,00 0,511 sumber air baku yang cukup banyak 0,128 4,00 0,511 tersedianya lahan kas desa 0,106 3,00 0,317 adanya investor dan mitra usaha 0,128 3,00 0,383 tariff premium dari layanan zamp 0,061 2,00 0,122 ancaman resistensi terhadap kenaikan tarif 0,117 1,00 0,117 perubahan musim 0,072 3,00 0,217 ekspansi industry air minum kemasan 0,061 1,00 0,061 letusan g. merapi 0,078 2,00 0,156 konflik pengelolaan sumber air baku 0,122 2,00 0,244 jumlah 1,000 2,794 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 1, april 2014: 78-96 96 tabel 13. matriks swot pdam kabupaten sleman faktor internal faktor eksternal kekuatan: 1. perda tentang: pendirian pdam, ketentuan-ketentuan pokok badan pengawas, direksi & pegawai pdam kab. sleman, dan pengelolaan pdam 2. pendapatan retribusi mendekati bep (impas) 3. sumur bor ada 18 buah, shallow well 23 unit, mata air 2 buah (dg kapasitas produksi 385 lit/dt), ipa, dan mobil tanki 1 buah (kap. 5000 lt) 4. dukungan pemda & dprd dalam kebijakan cukup baik. 5. strata pendidikan sdm cukup memadai. kelemahan: 1. tingginya angka kehilangan air 2. pelayanan yang belum mencapai 24 jam secara merata 3. tariff belum cost recovery 4. rasio cakupan pelayanan masih rendah 5. akuisisi pelanggan yang dilayani oleh pdam kota yogyakarta terlalu lama penyelesaiannya peluang: 1. tersedianya pangsa pasar potensial yakni kawasan perkotaan yang tumbuh cukup pesat 2. tersedianya sumber air permukaan yang cukup banyak 3. ketersediaan lahan kas desa yang dapat disewa untuk pembangunan prasarana ipa 4. banyak investor yang mengajak kerjasama pengembangan 5. tariff premium dari layanan zamp (siap minum) strategi s-o 1. meningkatkan cakupan dan kualitas layanan khususnya pada kawasan perkotaan yang tumbuh pesat dan rawan pencemaran. 2. mewujudkan layanan air minum perpipaan premium pada kawasan kota khusus strategi w-o 1. penggantian water meter yang rusak dan berumur > 4 th 2. identifikasi kehilangan air 3. peningkatan kapasitas sdm guna meningkatkan layanan prima dan perluasan cakupan layanan. ancaman: 1. resistensi terhadap kenaikan tarif berkala oleh legislatif/ masyarakat 2. perubahan musim yang mempengaruhi kualitas air 3. letusan gunung merapi merusak sumber air pdam 4. ekspansi industri air minum kemasan pada ladang-ladang sumber pdam 5. konflik pengelolaan sumbersumber air antara masyarakat dan pemerintah strategi s-t 1. memaksimalkan pemanfaatan sumber air baku yang berasal dari sallow well dan sungai 2. meningkatkan pengamanan sumber-sumber air pdam, baik dari ancaman pencemaran maupun bencana alam (letusan merapi) 3. melakukan sosialisasi kepada masyarakat akan pentingnya konsumsi air bersih strategi w-t 1. segera menyelesaikan masalah (administrasi) akuisisi pelanggan di wilayah pdam kabupaten sleman yang dilayani oleh pdam kota yogyakarta 2. dukungan atau bimbingan teknis kepada air perpipaan air bersih di pedesaan di luar sistem pdam. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 22 nomor 2, oktober 2021 article type: research paper testing the existence of natural resource curse in indonesia: the role of financial development sedwivia ridena1*, nurarifin1, wawan hermawan2, and ahmad komarulzaman2 abstract: natural resources may become a blessing that can contribute to societies’ welfare increases. yet natural resource abundance could also become a curse for countries’ economic development. numerous studies have investigated the relationship between natural resources and economic performance. however, the results remain ambiguous and have no consensus in the literature. in specific, most literature focused only on testing the curse’s existence, while studies that involve the role of financial development in mediating the nexus remain scarce. to the best of our knowledge, this is a pioneer study in a developing country endowed by natural resources. using panel data of 33 provinces from 2012 to 2018, this study implements the generalized method of moments (gmm) technique to examine the existence of the natural resource curse and scrutinize the role of financial development in mitigating the curse. results show that indonesia potentially experiences a natural resource curse. nonetheless, the negative effect of natural resources on economic growth could be mitigated by enhancing the role of financial development to reach a certain threshold over economic output. this study recommends policymakers to not only increase financial development across the provinces but also pay more serious attention to other factors causing the natural resource curse in indonesia. keywords: natural resource curse; financial development; economic growth; economic development jel classification: q56; g21; o44; o13 introduction conventional views tend to assume that countries endowed with natural resources experience a better economic performance since the natural resource is potentially a catalyst for economic activities (ben-salha et al., 2018). natural resources are a blessing since they have contribution towards economic activities to help improving welfare (andersen, 2006). several studies have successfully found a positive impact of natural resources on economic growth (e.g. cavalcanti et al., 2011; hilmawan & clark, 2019; michaels, 2010). nonetheless, these views faced a critical challenge. a significant number of researchers have claimed that natural resources could be a curse for a nation. affiliation: 1statistics indonesia, west sumatra, indonesia 2department of economics, faculty of economics and business, universitas padjajaran, west java, indonesia *correspondence: sayridena@gmail.com this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v22i2.10977 citation: ridena, s., nurarifin, n., hermawan, w., & komarulzaman, a. (2021). testing the existence of natural resource curse in indonesia: the role of financial development. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 22(2), 213227. article history received: 27 jan 2021 revised: 29 mar 2021 19 may 2021 08 jun 2021 accepted: 11 sep 2021 https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=rifht0oaaaaj&hl=en https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=xyonypqaaaaj&hl=en https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorid=6602716827 https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorid=57056483100 https://sumbar.bps.go.id/ https://sumbar.bps.go.id/ http://iesp.feb.unpad.ac.id/en/ http://iesp.feb.unpad.ac.id/en/ http://iesp.feb.unpad.ac.id/en/ http://iesp.feb.unpad.ac.id/en/ mailto:sayridena@gmail.com http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/10977 https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v22i1.7836&domain=pdf https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v22i1.10977&domain=pdf ridena, nurarifin, hermawan, & komarulzaman testing the existence of natural resource curse in indonesia: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 214 it was auty (1994) who firstly constructed a natural resource curse hypothesis, implying a negative relationship between natural resource abundance and economic performance. he postulates that resource-dependent nations attempting to develop advantaged industries possibly face problems in improving their economic performance. instead of fostering economic growth, their economic growth rate remains low and their ecological environment is gradually damaged. sachs and warner (1995) examined the nexus between those variables and found that resource-abundant countries tend to have a low rate of economic growth than resource-scarce countries. gelb (1988) found that government revenues from natural resource tend to exacerbate economic condition when the interest rate increases. this is because countries that are highly dependent on oil export tend to hamper other sectors to develop, for example, trade sectors. trade sectors may suffer when the interest rate increases as it bears a significant production cost. for example, gylfason and zoega (2006) researched 85 natural resource-rich countries and found a negative relationship between resource abundance and economic growth through saving transmission and investment. atkinson and hamilton (2003) also tested the linkage between natural resource rent and saving in 103 countries and found that countries blessed by rich natural resources had a low rate of saving. marques and pires (2019) also examined the existence of the natural resource curse in gas-rich countries during 1993-2015 and concluded that gas dependence may hamper economic growth in the long run. natural resource endowment could be either a blessing or a curse for countries’ development. economists who believe that natural resources can be a blessing argued that natural resources play a crucial role in the process of economic development. specifically, rostow stated that natural resource abundance would allow developing nations to make a critical transformation from under-development to industrial take-off (badeeb et al., 2017). therefore, the economists believed that natural resources could promote industrial development, shape markets, and encourage investment. on the other hand, natural resources could also be a curse for nations. badeeb et al. (2017) classified the mechanisms into economic and political factors. the economic explanations refer to the dutch disease phenomenon, commodity price volatility, economic mismanagement, and education neglect, whereas the political explanations relate to rentseeking practices, weak institutions, and corruption. natural resource studies have also been conducted in indonesia, which resulted in varied findings. rosser (2007) conducted empirical research testing the linkage between the oil and gas sector and economic growth in indonesia between 1970 and 1980. he found that indonesia can anticipate a natural resource curse. hilmawan and clark (2019) examined the linkage using municipality and regency data in indonesia and found that mining dependence had a positive effect on real per capita grdp. nevertheless, other streams of literature in indonesia have found the existence of this curse. using cross-sectional data at the municipality/regency level, komarulzaman and alisjahbana (2006) claimed that oil revenue had a negative association with economic growth. moreover, edwards (2016) found that mining dependence was more likely to reduce human capital investment. in addition, rahma et al. (2021) stated that the curse indeed exists in indonesia at a province ridena, nurarifin, hermawan, & komarulzaman testing the existence of natural resource curse in indonesia: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 215 level, which means that mining dependence is not a guarantee for a country to achieve sustainable development. literature reveals various findings regarding the relationship between natural resources and a country’s economic development. havranek et al. (2016) found that 40% of papers found a negative association, 20% of papers claimed the sign of the links is positive, and only 20% found no adequate evidence to conclude the linkage. the contradictory findings were possibly due to endogeneity ignorance in the analysis (badeeb et al., 2017), and owing to weak robustness checks (hilmawan & clark, 2019). most of the previous studies focused only on the testing of the existence of a resource curse without an option of mitigating it. researchers have examined the relationship between natural resources and economic development, attempting to scrutinize whether or not the curse significantly exists. however, the study seeks to include financial development as a channel for mitigating the curse remains scarce. erdoğan et al. (2020) argued that the development of a financial system was crucial for natural resources to have a positive impact on fostering economic growth. they stated that there was a certain threshold of the level of financial development, which determined the effect of natural resources on economic growth (erdoğan et al., 2020). gylfason (2004) conducted an empirical study involving 85 countries from 1965 to 1998 and found that natural resource affected growth directly and indirectly through financial development transmission. moradbeigi and law (2017) found that interaction between financial development and natural resource abundance (proxied by oil rent) had a positive association with economic growth, which means could curb the natural resource curse. rongwei and xiaoying (2020) used panel data of 30 provinces in china from 2005 to 2018 to test the role of financial development on natural resource abundance and economic growth relationship and found that financial development could mitigate the curse in china. in addition, financial development could curb the natural resource curse through an economic mechanism, for example, the volatility of natural resource commodity prices. economists have argued that natural resource price fluctuations decrease economic growth. in an economic boom period, the resource prices surge sharply with increasing demand. meanwhile in an economic downturn period, the resource prices decline dramatically followed by decreasing demand. the volatility of natural resource commodity prices has caused economic fluctuations in the country, causing pro-cyclical fluctuations in government income and export revenues. this volatility increases uncertainty and makes it difficult to calculate natural resource revenues, thus making planning government finance revenues and expenditures more challenging. in that condition, strengthening financial development can have a critical role in curbing the curse. according to rongwei and xiaoying (2020), the financial system is able to establish a fund for controlling natural resource revenue, maintaining a reasonable level of resource revenue, and retrieving resource revenue higher than the average level of the fund. therefore, it can effectively avoid economic fluctuations caused by market instability of resource revenue. the argument is also consistent with beck (2011) arguing ridena, nurarifin, hermawan, & komarulzaman testing the existence of natural resource curse in indonesia: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 216 that the financial system could mitigate the condition when natural resource revenues decrease due to price fluctuation; it could increase productivity and allocate natural resources optimally thus fostering growth. he also affirmed that natural resource revenue can be a tool for establishing a financial system to be more effective, which in turn improving the business circle (beck, 2011). a high natural resource revenue can be utilized to foster other sectors through productive investment intermediated by financial institutions (erdoğan et al., 2020). studies that involve financial development in natural resources and economic performance nexus conducted in indonesia remain scarce. this study intends to fill that gap by examining the existence of the natural resource curse and scrutinizing the role of financial development. the analysis takes two important factors mentioned in previous literature into consideration, namely endogeneity, and robustness check issues. in specific, this study is motivated by the two most relevant analyses conducted by hilmawan and clark (2019), and rongwei and xiaoying (2020). the first considers with weak robustness checks by implementing three different empirical techniques but not taking into account the role of financial development on their analysis, whereas the latter considers endogeneity issues by implementing a more flexible econometric model but not bearing in mind the robustness checks by employing different indicators for natural resources and financial development, for example. this study employs the two most used natural resources and financial development indicators, and it attempts to further analyses the variables that potentially lead to the natural resource curse by dividing a natural resource indicator, namely natural resource revenue, into mining revenue, and oil and gas revenue. this study has two objectives: (1) revealing the possibility of the existence of the natural resource curse in indonesia so that policymakers can take steps to mitigate it well and (2) proposing a mechanism to reduce the curse potency by strengthening financial development in the country. the results of the study are twofold. first, there is a potential existence of natural resources in indonesia. in every one percentage point increase of natural dependence, economic growth is expected to decline by 0.28 to 0.34 percentage points. specifically, in contrast to the mining revenue that only revealed limited evidence of the existence of the curse, the revenue from oil and gas provides stronger evidence that supports the natural resource curse in indonesia. second, financial development potentially becomes a channel for mitigating the curse in the country with the threshold of at least 28 to 34 per cent. these findings provide empirical evidence to help the government formulating natural resource-related policies to avoid the curse through an alternative mechanism by enhancing financial development. the government needs to pay attention to financial sectors as a channel for mitigating and reducing the curse. additionally, they should guarantee to reduce rent-seeking practices among elites and to strengthen institution quality. ridena, nurarifin, hermawan, & komarulzaman testing the existence of natural resource curse in indonesia: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 217 research method data used in this study were collected from 33 provinces on annual basis from 2012 to 2018. we exclude north kalimantan, a new province in indonesia because of data scarcity issue. the variables used in this research are adapted from rongwei and xiaoying (2020). the dependent variable is per capita economic growth measured by the difference value of the natural logarithm of real gross regional domestic product (grdp) at periods t and t-1. bps-statistics indonesia provides grdp data with 2010 as a base year. table 1 data and definition used in the analysis no variable definition abbrev. unit of measurement source 1 per capita economic growth the logarithmic difference in per capita grdp y natural log bps-statistics indonesia natural resource indicators 2 mining dependence percentage of total mining output over real grdp mindep per cent bps-statistics indonesia 3 natural resource revenue the percentage of total natural resource revenue (total of mining, oil, and gas revenue) over total government revenue nrrev per cent djpk 4 mining revenue the percentage of mining revenue (dbh mining) over total government revenue minrev per cent djpk 5 oil+gas revenue the percentage of oil and gas revenue (dbh oil and gas) over total revenue oilgasrev per cent djpk financial development 6 credit the percentage of credit to the private sector over total nominal grdp credit per cent ojk 7 deposit money bank the percentage of deposit money bank over total nominal grdp dpk per cent ojk control variables 8 human capital investment the percentage of college students over the total population hci per cent bps-statistics indonesia 9 economic fluctuations the absolute value of the five-year moving standard deviation of per capita grdp ef billion rupiah bps-statistics indonesia 10 regional openness total regional foreign direct investment (fdi) over regional nominal grdp open per cent bkpm 11 investment efficiency the share of total investment over nominal grdp ei per cent bkpm notes: djpk (directorate general of fiscal balance, ministry of finance), ojk (financial services authority), bkpm (capital investment coordinating board) ridena, nurarifin, hermawan, & komarulzaman testing the existence of natural resource curse in indonesia: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 218 the study includes only non-renewable natural resources such as mining (coal and other mining), oil, and gas. following previous works, this study utilizes the share of the mining sector over total grdp (mining dependent) and the share (dbh, dana bagi hasil) of natural resource revenue over the total of government revenue as proxies of natural resource indicators. dbh consists of the mining sector, oil, and gas revenues. the analysis then divided it into two components, mining revenue, and oil and gas revenue. meanwhile, the financial development indicator in this study was proxied by private credit and deposit money banks as a share of nominal grdp. these data were gathered from the financial services authority. this study employs control variables adopted by rongwei and xiaoying (2020), namely: human capital investment, economic fluctuations, regional openness, and investment efficiency. human capital investment was proxied by the percentage of the total number of college students over total population; economic fluctuation is the absolute value of the five-year moving standard deviation of per capita grdp; regional openness is measured by total regional foreign direct investment (fdi) over regional nominal grdp; and investment efficiency is the share of total investment over nominal grdp. table 1 summarizes the data used in the analysis. therefore, per capita output growth is defined as the logarithmic difference in per capita grdp, which is determined by the initial level of per capita income (𝑦𝑖,𝑡−1) as suggested by barro (1996) and other explanatory variables following rongwei and xiaoying (2020) as have mentioned. our model is then 𝑦𝑖𝑡 𝑦𝑖(𝑡−1) = ϒ 𝑦𝑖,𝑡−1 + 𝛽1𝑁𝑅𝑖,𝑡 + 𝐹𝐷′𝑖,𝑡 𝛽2 + 𝛽3 (𝑁𝑅𝑖,𝑡 . 𝐹𝐷′𝑖,𝑡) + 𝑥𝑖𝑡 ′ δ + 𝜀𝑖𝑡 (1a) 𝑦𝑖𝑡 = (ϒ + 1) 𝑦𝑖(𝑡−1) + 𝛽1𝑁𝑅𝑖,𝑡 + 𝐹𝐷′𝑖,𝑡 𝛽2 + 𝛽3 (𝑁𝑅𝑖,𝑡 . 𝐹𝐷′𝑖,𝑡) + 𝑥𝑖𝑡 ′ δ + 𝜀𝑖𝑡 (1b) 𝑦𝑖𝑡 = ϒ ∗ 𝑦𝑖(𝑡−1) + 𝛽1𝑁𝑅𝑖,𝑡 + 𝐹𝐷′𝑖,𝑡 𝛽2 + 𝛽3 (𝑁𝑅𝑖,𝑡 . 𝐹𝐷′𝑖,𝑡) + 𝑥𝑖𝑡 ′ δ + 𝜀𝑖𝑡 (1c) 𝜀𝑖𝑡 = 𝛼𝑖 + 𝑣𝑖𝑡 (2) 𝐸(𝛼𝑖 ) = 𝐸(𝑣𝑖,𝑡 ) = 𝐸(𝛼𝑖 𝑣𝑖,𝑡 ) = 0 (3) where ϒ∗ = ϒ + 1, 𝑦𝑖𝑡 , and 𝑦𝑖,𝑡−1are per capita grdp of province i at period t and t-1, respectively. 𝑁𝑅𝑖,𝑡 represents the natural resource dependence of provinces at a certain period. 𝐹𝐷′𝑖,𝑡 indicates vector of financial development indicators consisting of private credit and deposit money bank. 𝑥𝑖𝑡 ′ describes the vector of control variables. 𝛼𝑖 and 𝑣𝑖𝑡 are the individual-specific effect and the error term, respectively. the study implements a dynamic generalised method of moments (dynamic gmm) estimation first developed by arellano and bond (1991). according to das et al. (2016), the gmm approach has several advantages compared to ols estimation. first, it allows estimating panel data with many individuals and a longer time length. second, it permits us to control the individual-specific effect with the appropriate gmm variant. third, gmm estimation can anticipate endogeneity problems in the model. ridena, nurarifin, hermawan, & komarulzaman testing the existence of natural resource curse in indonesia: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 219 to purge the individual-specific effect in equation (1), it needs to take the first difference so that it yields 𝛥𝑦𝑖𝑡 = ϒ ∗𝛥𝑦𝑖,𝑡−1+ 𝛽1𝛥𝑁𝑅𝑖,𝑡 + 𝛥𝐹𝐷′𝑖,𝑡 𝛽2 + 𝛽3 δ(𝑁𝑅𝑖,𝑡 . 𝐹𝐷′𝑖,𝑡) + 𝛥𝑥𝑖𝑡 ′ δ + 𝛥𝜀𝑖𝑡 (4) with the following moment condition 𝐸(𝜔𝑖,𝑠𝛥𝜀𝑖,𝑡 ) = 0 for s < t (5) where 𝜔𝑖,𝑠 is all independent variables that are treated as predetermined variables in equation (1). the estimation method using moment condition as in equation (5) is then called difference gmm (diff-gmm). several researchers then suggested utilizing additional moment conditions to yield better finite sample properties. arellano and bover (1995) and blundell and bond (1998) recommended using the following additional moment condition: 𝐸(𝛥𝜔𝑖,𝑡 𝜀𝑖,𝑡 ) = 0 (6) the estimation method using additional moment conditions as in equation (6) is then called system gmm (sys-gmm). this study implements sys-gmm using a two-step standard error procedure to examine the existence of resource curse and testing the role of financial development in natural abundance and economic growth linkages. to avoid instrument proliferation, roodman’s (2009) recommendation was followed to limit the number of lags only using the first available lag of instrumenting variables of equation (1) and to collapse them. result and discussion based on data, the average and the standard deviation of economic growth in indonesia during the sample period was around 3.73 per cent and 2.22 per cent, respectively. economic growth inequality among provinces in indonesia remained high as its maximum and minimum values had a high range, accounted for -5.72 per cent and 18.40 per cent. moreover, natural resource dependences, which were proxied by mining dependences grdp and natural resource revenue, also showed high inequality in the country. those variables had a high range between 0.17 per cent and 53.05 per cent for mining dependence grdp, and between 0.00 per cent and 61.50 per cent for natural resource revenues. ridena, nurarifin, hermawan, & komarulzaman testing the existence of natural resource curse in indonesia: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 220 table 2 summary statistics variables unit of measurement obs. mean st. dev min max per capita real grdp (y) million rupiahs 231 37.19 29.12 10.03 165.87 logarithmic differences of per capita grdp percentage 231 3.73 2.22 -5.72 18.40 natural resource dependence mining dependence (mindep) percentage 231 11.63 12.22 0.17 53.05 natural resource revenue (nrrev) percentage 231 5.81 10.88 0.00 61.50 mining revenue (miningrev) percentage 231 2.15 4.76 0.00 27.04 oil+gas revenue (oilgasrev) percentage 231 3.65 8.53 0.00 61.37 financial development credit percentage 231 24.92 14.75 7.79 103.82 deposit money bank percentage 231 25.92 18.06 9.25 120.34 investasi human capital (hci, human capital investment) percentage 231 3.62 1.77 0.95 9.19 economic fluctuation (ef) million rupiahs 231 5.78 4.86 0.59 28.93 regional openness (open) percentage 231 3.65 3.89 0.01 20.04 investment efficiency (ie) percentage 231 5.37 4.26 0.17 20.55 the existence of the natural resource curse in indonesia table 3 presents the regression results of economic growth on several natural resources and financial development indicators. overall, it revealed the potential existence of natural resources in indonesia even though the effect was unclear when using mining dependence grdp (model 1 and model 2). model 3 and model 4, which pair natural resource revenue (nrrev) with credit and deposit variables, showed a negative relationship between natural resources and economic growth. in every one percentage point of nrrev increase, economic growth would decline by 0.28 percentage points (model 3) to 0.34 percentage points (model 4) with the average of the growth was 3.73 per cent as presented in table 2. moreover, this study breaks down the nrrev into mining revenue (miningrev) and oil and gas revenue (oilgasrev) to further examine the variables potentially leading to the curse. when the model employed oilgasrev, there was strong evidence that the curse may exist in indonesia. as shown by model 7 and model 8 in table 3, both paired with credit and deposit indicators, oilgasrev was associated negatively with economic growth. one percentage point of oilgasrev increase would drive to lower economic growth by 0.33 percentage points (model 7) to 0.34 percentage points (model 8). those were in line with within-country natural resource curse studies. douglas and walker (2016) and papyrakis and gerlagh (2007) found a negative relationship between natural resources and economic growth in the usa. ridena, nurarifin, hermawan, & komarulzaman testing the existence of natural resource curse in indonesia: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 221 table 3 relationships between natural resource dependence, financial development, and economic growth model 1 model 2 model 3 model 4 model 5 model 6 model 7 model 8 initial income 0.0827 *** (0.05) 0.0875 *** (0.10) 0.0365 *** (0.03) 0.0302 *** (0.01) 0.0228 *** (0.04) 0.0367 *** (0.01) 0.0447 *** (0.02) 0.0338 *** (0.01) mining dependence grdp (mindep) 0.0043 (0.01) 0.0026 (0.01) natural resource revenue (nrrev) 0.0028 ** (0.00) 0.0034 ** (0.00) mining revenue (minrev) 0.0063 (0.00) 0.0033 * (0.00) oilgas revenue (oilgasrev) 0.0033 ** (0.00) 0.0034 * (0.00) credit 0.0018 (0.00) -0.0010 (0.00) 0.0007 (0.00) 0.0007 (0.00) deposit money bank 0.0018 -0.0001 0.0006 0.0000 (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) mindep*credit -0.0002 (0.00) 0.0002 (0.00) mindep*deposit -0.0001 (0.00) 0.0001 (0.00) nrrev*credit 0.0001 * 0.0001 (0.00) (0.00) nrrev*deposit 0.0001 *** (0.00) minrev*credit 0.0002 (0.00) minrev*deposit 0.0001 (0.00) oilgasrev*credit 0.0001 (0.00) oilgasrev*deposit 0.0001 *** (0.00) control variables yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes time effects yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes ar(1) p 0.1147 0.1199 0.0786 * 0,0731 * 0.0461 * 0.0815 * 0.0831 * 0.0860 * ar(2) p 0.1280 0.5116 0.4275 0.4246 0.0542 * 0.0332 ** 0.2552 0.2867 hansen/difference-inhansen test p 0.8886 0.7234 0.5660 0.5411 0.6745 0.8558 0.6482 0.5992 instrument 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 province 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 notes: standard errors in parentheses. the symbol *, **, and *** show that the variables are significant at 10%, 5%, and 1%, respectively. ridena, nurarifin, hermawan, & komarulzaman testing the existence of natural resource curse in indonesia: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 222 rongwei and xiaoying (2020) had also detected a negative association between resource endowment and economic growth in china. in indonesia, komarulzaman and alisjahbana (2006) also claimed that the nexus between those two variables was negative. badeeb et al. (2017) stated that there are reasons behind the negative association between natural resources and economic growth. they are classified into economic and political channels. from an economic perspective, the curse may relate to ‘dutch disease’, commodity price volatility, economic policy failures, and the neglect of education. on the other hand, from the political point of view, the channels are traced to rent-seeking and weak institutions, and corruption. the explanations of why the curse may exist in indonesia are potentially consistent with statements of badeeb et al. (2017). like other countries in the world, indonesia has also encountered a boom and recession in its economy. indonesia has often been classified as a developing country that is successfully escaped from the resource curse trap during the 1970s to 2000s, the conditions in which natural-resource-based economic growth could foster industrialization processes leading to economic welfares and poverty alleviation. however, after the 2000s, the condition in which labour-intensive agricultural products play a critical role in economic activities, indonesia’s economy experienced all the symptoms of the modern dutch disease, persisting to grow while export-oriented and more skilled services sectors remain stable (edwards, 2016). most of indonesia’s international health and education comparisons have been relatively poor; hence, the progress of poverty alleviation has slowed, while inequality gradually increases. in addition to the dutch disease, indonesia probably had high price volatility and policy mismanagement. badeeb et al. (2017) argued that price volatility could reduce economic growth since market instability may increase uncertainty, leading to difficulties to measure natural resource revenues so that government faces challenges to formulate economic development planning. furthermore, natural resource revenues often make policymakers overconfident. for instance, natural-resource-based fiscal often drove the government to be ignorant to set policies relating to urbanization, human capital development, and infrastructure that was prominent for long-term economic growth (badeeb et al., 2017). in the meantime, politically, rent-seeking, corruption, and weak institution quality remain as challenges for indonesians. according to badeeb et al. (2017), in many countries, natural resource abundance enhanced the power of elites since they can take a large portion of natural resource revenues and to share the revenues with particular groups in their circle rather than to boost infrastructure or sustainable economic development. furthermore, they argued that institution quality plays a crucial role in determining whether natural resources could become a blessing or a curse. natural resources could not only become a main driver of conflicts but also corruption and pressure on institution quality. in indonesia, corruption has become a serious issue. according to the corruption perception index of transparency international, indonesia ranked 85th of 180 countries. this becomes a potential reason why the curse exists or persists in indonesia. ridena, nurarifin, hermawan, & komarulzaman testing the existence of natural resource curse in indonesia: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 223 the role of financial development in mitigating the curse in addition, to examine the relationship between natural resource dependence and economic growth, table 3 also presents the role of financial development in mediating the linkages between natural resources and economic output. individually, the effect of financial development on per capita output was not statistically significant in all specifications. meanwhile, the interaction terms between financial development and natural resource dependence were positive and significant, both using credit and deposit money bank as a proxy for financial development. this indicates that financial development may become a channel for mitigating the natural resource curse in indonesia. according to model 3 and model 4 in table 3, the interaction terms between nrrev and private credit and deposit money bank were significant and positive. specifically, it is the interaction between oilgasrev and deposit money bank that was significant and positive (model 8), but not statistically significant between oilgasrev and private credit (model 7). to calculate the threshold in which financial development mitigates the curse, it needs to take a partial derivative of the standard model used in this study, as written in equation (1c). following rongwei and xiaoying (2020), the formula is as follows; 𝜕𝑦 𝜕𝑁𝑅 ≥ 𝛽1 + 𝛽3 𝐹𝐷 (7) table 4 relationships between natural resource dependence, financial development, and economic growth coefficient 𝜷𝟏 coefficient 𝜷𝟑 the threshold of financial development nrrev*credit -0.0028 0.0001 28 nrrev*deposit -0.0034 0.0001 34 oilgasrev*deposit -0.0034 0.0001 34 table 3 shows that only model 3 and model 4 confirm the existence of the natural resource curse in indonesia. in model 3 and model 4, the interaction terms between natural resources and financial development were significant and positive. table 4 presents the thresholds in which financial development could mitigate and minimize the curse. the interaction coefficient between nrrev and private credit was 0.0001, indicating private credit could reduce the curse if its level is accounted for at least 28 per cent. moreover, the interaction coefficient between nrrev and deposit money bank was also 0.0001, indicating that deposit money bank could mitigate the natural resource curse when its level is approximately at least 34 per cent. finally, the interaction coefficient between oilgasrev and deposit money bank was accounted for 0.001, reflecting deposit money bank could mitigate the curse after reaching the threshold at 34 per cent. those results indicate that financial development is potential to be a mechanism that minimizes the natural resource curse in a country. the study finds that private credit and deposit money banks should be at least 28 per cent and 34 per cent, respectively. according to descriptive statistics in table 2, the average of private credit and deposit ridena, nurarifin, hermawan, & komarulzaman testing the existence of natural resource curse in indonesia: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 224 money banks was 24.92 per cent and 25.92 per cent, respectively. it helps the policymakers to formulate economic development policies by considering natural resource quality. enhancing financial development could be a crucial way to avoid and anticipate the existence of the curse. these results are consistent with the studies conducted by moradbeigi and law (2017), and rongwei and xiaoying (2020). moradbeigi and law (2017) found that financial development could reduce the negative effect of natural resource endowment, especially oil, on economic growth when the level of financial development of a country was between 19 per cent and 34 per cent. the threshold in developing countries tends to be higher than in developed countries since the level of financial development remains low in developing countries. additionally, rongwei and xiaoying (2020) argued that the level of financial development should be at least 17 per cent to mitigate the curse in china. rongwei and xiaoying (2020) stated that when a country has a low level of financial development, the investment tends to flow to a virtual economy so that the real economy cannot develop. following the federal reserve definition, they define the real economy term as industries other than the financial sector and real estate, while the virtual economy is on the other way around. in comparison to the virtual economy, the real economy is believed to have a relatively thin profit, low and slow rate of return thereby potentially crowding out other entities. as rongwei and xiaoying (2020) argued, this leads to create the virtual economy bubble and endangered economic development. however, when the level of financial development has reached a certain threshold, the investment will also flow to other labour-intensive real sectors and lead to higher economic growth. financial development could reduce the curse in two ways. first, when natural resource revenue falls due to price volatility, the financial system could help to finance the shortfall so that it can increase productivity and allocate resources optimally. second, when natural resource revenue increases, the revenue could help the financial system to be more effective and stronger so that it could boost other sectors, which in turn could foster growth. conclusion the positive impact of natural resource abundance on economic development has become debatable since firstly constructed a hypothesis of the natural resource curse, revealing the possibility of the negative relationship between natural resources and economic growth. hence, this seeks to study examine the existence of a natural resource curse in indonesia and scrutinize the role of financial development in mitigating the curse. the results have provided evidence of the possibility of the natural resource curse in indonesia. this study found a negative association between natural resource dependence and economic output growth. one percentage point increase of natural resource revenue would lower the economic growth by 0.28 to 0.34 percentage points. mining revenue and oil and gas revenue revealed evidence of the existence of the curse in indonesia. however, ridena, nurarifin, hermawan, & komarulzaman testing the existence of natural resource curse in indonesia: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 225 the latter provided stronger empirical evidence than the first one. the study also finds another crucial finding showing an alternative channel for mitigating the natural resource curse through financial development. results show that enhancing financial development could potentially mitigate and reduce the negative effect of natural resource dependence on economic growth. the level of financial development has to be at least 28 to 34 per cent so that it gives the desired impact in reducing the natural resource curse. the findings recommend the government to pay more serious attention to fight the natural resource curse that occurred in the country through effective mechanisms; one of which is through financial development. enhancing financial development to a certain threshold could mitigate the natural resource curse in the country. in the meantime, policymakers should also guarantee that other reasons causing the natural resource curse can be solved, such as by anticipating modern “dutch disease”, reducing price volatility, eradicating rent-seeking practices, and strengthening the quality of the institution. finally, the revenues obtained from natural resources with the support of capable financial sectors are believed to boost economic output growth, which in turn increase the living standard of societies. acknowledgments we would like to acknowledge the valuable supports of bps-statistics indonesia, otoritas jasa keuangan (ojk), and direktorat jenderal perimbangan keuangan (djpk) ministry of finance of the republic of indonesia for providing data used in this study. references 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descriptive and statistical modeling approach houck. based on the results of the survey, it’s found that the market structure in yogyakarta at the collectors is an oligopoly, the increasingly competitive downstream. the pattern of distribution of rice in yogyakarta is following the path length, which is collected from the manufacturers. wholesalers collectors bought new distributed to retailers for sale to consumers. at the level of manufacturers, the price of rice is determined by the buyer; collectors follow at the highest market price. at wholesalers levels, the price follows the price of competitors, and at the retailers, the price follows the highest market price. factor that determines the price of rice from manufacturers to retailers is alike, that is the availability of supy. keywords: market structure, distribution, pricing of goods, rice prices abstrak: komoditas pangan khususnya beras menjadi salah satu penyumbang inflasi yang signifikan. paper ini bertujuan mengidentifikasi struktur pasar, pola distribusi, dan pembentukan harga beras di yogyakarta. metode yang dilakukan adalah statistik deskriptif dan pendekatan model houck. berdasarkan hasil survei ditemukan bahwa struktur pasar besar di yogyakarta pada tingkat pengepul adalah oligopoli, semakin ke hilir semakin kompetitif. pola distribusi beras di yogyakarta mengikuti jalur panjang, yaitu dari produsen dikumpulkan pengepul dibeli pedagang besar didistribusikan ke pengecer baru dijual ke konsumen. pada tingkat produsen, harga beras ditentukan oleh pembeli; di tingkat pengepul mengikuti harga pasar tertinggi. di tingkat pedagang besar mengikuti harga pesaing, dan di tingkat pengecer mengikuti harga pasar tertinggi. faktor yang menentukan harga jual beras dari produsen hingga pengecer sama, yaitu ketersediaan pasokan. kata kunci: struktur pasar, pola distribusi, penetapan harga, harga beras pendahuluan komoditas pangan (volatile foods) menjadi penyumbang inflasi yang cukup signifikan. secara historis sumbangan komoditas pangan terhadap inflasi di indonesia sangat signifikan dan menduduki urutan kedua setelah inflasi  penelitian ini merupakan bagian dari penelitian beberapa komoditas terpilih penyumbang inflasi di diy yang dibiayai oleh kantor perwakilan bank indonesia daerah istimewa yogyakarta. inti (core inflation). secara empiris harga komoditas pangan tersebut mempunyai peranan yang penting dalam mengendalikan inflasi di indonesia. porsi sumbangannya yang cukup signifikan terhadap berbagai shocks layak djadikan sebagai leading indicators inflasi. permintaan konsumsi komoditas pangan yang menjadi kebutuhan pokok cenderung stabil, sehingga gejolak harganya lebih dipengaruhi oleh shock di sisi penawaran seperti siklus panen, bencana alam, dan distribusi (prastowo dkk, 2008) seperti halnya di indonesia, komoditas struktur pasar, distribusi, dan pembentukan harga beras (ardito bhinadi) 25 pangan (volatile food) merupakan penyumbang inflasi yang cukup signifikan di daerah istimewa yogyakarta. salah satu pemicunya adalah melonjaknya pola konsumsi masyarakat. pola konsumsi masyarakat di yogyakarta lebih didominasi pada makanan. kondisi tersebut menyebabkan sensitivitas dan pergerakan angka inflasi di provinsi diy. pengungkapan faktor penyebab inflasi yang terjadi pada komoditas makanan (volatile food) dapat ditelusuri dengan mengidentifikasi dan menganalisis faktor-faktor penyebab kenaikan harga per komoditas atau kelompok komoditas (disaggregate approach). dalam rangka memperoleh informasi yang lebih valid dan mendalam terhadap proses pembentukan harga secara disagregat dapat dilakukan studi pada berbagai tingkatan proses produksi dan jalur distribusi serta struktur pasar masing-masing komoditas. pengendalian inflasi melalui pengendalian harga bahan pokok menjadi sangat penting untuk dilakukan. terganggunya pasokan kebutuhan pokok seperti beras, cabai, bawang merah menyebabkan harga ditingkat pengecer melonjak. upaya memahami inflasi dari sisi supply menjadi sangat relevan karena harga di tingkat konsumen sangat terkait dengan harga yang ditentukan oleh produsen dan pedagang. pembentukan harga oleh produsen dan pedagang dipengaruhi oleh perilaku perusahaan yang sangat berhubungan dengan struktur pasarnya. di samping itu, harga di tingkat konsumen juga dipengaruhi oleh pola distribusi suatu barang. ancaman terhadap pola distribusi akan berdampak besar terhadap ketersediaan/kelangkaan barang yang pada gilirannya akan dapat mempengaruhi tingkat harga. sebagai bagian dari upaya pengendalian harga komoditas daerah, perlu dilakukan identifikasi terhadap perilaku produsen, pedagang besar, pedagang eceran dalam pembentukan harga dan pola distribusi barang di daerah, terutama terhadap komoditas penyumbang inflasi utama di daerah. kemampuan dalam pengendalian terhadap faktor-faktor yang berpengaruh terhadap distribusi komoditas pangan disinyalir dapat mengurangi tekanan inflasi yang berasal dari volatile foods. kebijakan sektor pertanian untuk meningkatkan produksi pangan sebenarnya solusi jangka panjang dalam penciptaan ketahanan pangan dan pengendalian harga dari dalam negeri. namun upaya peningkatan produksi pertanian tidak dapat dilakukan secara instan karena terkait dengan infrastruktur, luas lahan, teknologi, dan keahlian yang memerlukan investasi dan penagnan jangka panjang. sementara faktor distribusi dapat dipengaruhi secara lebih cepat dan jumlah investasi yang dibutuhkan relatif lebih kecil. peningkatan komoditas pangan dapat berasal dari produsen, namun sumber peningkatan harga tersebut biasanya lebih bersifat fundamental karena didorong oleh meningkatnya harga input/sarana produksi atau karena faktor kebijakan pemerintah seperti penetapan harga dasar. sementara peningkatan harga yang didorong oleh faktor distribusi bersifat variabel, seperti panjangnya rantai jalur distribusi, hambatan transportasi dan perilaku pedagang dalam menetapkan marjin keuntungan, aksi spekulasi maupun kompetisi antar pedagang. tingginya volatilitas harga komoditas yang terjadi selama ini mengindikasikan bahwa faktor distribusi komoditas sangat strategis terhadap penyumbang inflasi nasional maupun inflasi daerah. permasalahan yang diangkat dalam penelitian ini adalah tingginya volatilitas harga pangan khususnya beras di yogyakarta. volatilitas harga merupakan masalah keseimbangan antara permintaan dan penawaran. struktur pasar dan pola distribusi barang turut andil dalam timbulnya volatilitas harga barang. permasalahan penelitian di batasi pada struktur pasar, pola distribusi dan pembentukan harga barang. adapun tujuan penelitian ini adalah mengidentifikasi struktur pasar, pola distribusi, dan pembentukan harga beras di diy. metode penelitian data yang digunakan dalam riset ini meliputi data primer dan data sekunder. data primer berupa data yang diperoleh dari hasil survei terhadap responden petani, pedagang, pengepul, pedagang besar, dan pedagang pengecer 13 komoditas kontributor utama inflasi daerah jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 13, nomor 1, april 2012: 24-32 26 yang diteliti. data sekunder yang meliputi data perkembangan harga beras yang diambil dari bank indonesia. pengumpulan data dilakukan dengan metode survei ke kelompok produsen, pengepul, pedagang besar, pengecer 1 dan pengecer 2. pengambilan sampel masing-masing kelompok pelaku pasar dilakukan dengan metode purposive sampling. responden pedagang besar, pengecer 1 dan pengecer 2 didistribusi dari delapan pasar yang telah ditetapkan sebelumnya. pemilihan pasar dilakukan melalui metode purposive sampling, diambil pasar-pasar induk dan besar yang menjadi acuan perdagangan komoditas di diy. kedelapan pasar tersebut adalah pasar kranggan, lempuyangan, beringharjo, demangan, piyungan, wates, giwangan dan gamping. responden produsen dan pengepul berasal dari lima kabupaten dan kota di diy secara purposive sampling. jumlah responden sebanyak 27 orang terdiri dari 5 petani, 6 pengepul, 5 pedagang beras, 6 pengecer 1 dan 5 pengecer 2. alat analisis yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini ada beberapa macam. berikut adalah alat analisis yang digunakan: (1) statistik deskriptif. alat analisis ini digunakan untuk menggambarkan karakteristik responden dan jalur distribusi komoditas penelitian. (2) pendekatan houck. houck dalam penelitiannya mengembangkan model pengujian apt berdasar segmentasi variabel harga menjadi harga naik dan harga turun. houck merepresentasikan persamaan asimetrik statik yang spesifikasinya prt = 0 + 1 + pft + p ft + et (1) di mana prt dan pft merupakan harga di tingkat ritel dan di tingkat hulu, t = 1,2, ... t, (delta) merupakan operator turunan pertama p ft merupakan pergerakan harga naik dan p ft pergerakan harga ritel turun. dalam model ini secara implisit dijelaskan bahwa pergerakan harga di tingkat hulu ada sebagai pendorong pergerakan harga di tingkat ritel, atau dalam bahasa lain harga tingkat hulu merupakan granger cause dari harga di tingkat hilir. uji granger causality yang dilakukan dengan pendekatan ini juga membuktikan bahwa pergerakan harga hulu sebagai driver pergerakan harga hilir. penelitian ini dilakukan di beberapa kota di amerika serikat. aplikasi model houck dalam penelitian ini di gunakan model error correction model englegranger (ecm-eg). pada prinsipnya, pada model koreksi kesalahan terdapat keseimbangan yang tetap dalam jangka panjang antara variabel-variabel ekonomi. bila dalam jangka pendek terdapat ketidakseimbangan dalam satu periode, maka model koreksi kesalahan akan mengoreksinya pada periode berikutnya. mekanisme koreksi kesalahan ini dapat diartikan sebagai penyelaras perilaku jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. dengan mekanisme ini pula, masalah regresi semrawut dapat dihindarkan melalui penggunaan variabel perbedaan yang tetap di dalam model, namun tanpa menghilangkan informasi jangka panjang yang diakibatkan oleh penggunaan data perbedaan semata (engle dan yoo, 1987:144). dengan demikian, dapat dikatakan bahwa model koreksi kesalahan konsisten dengan konsep kointegrasi atau dikenal dengan granger representation theorem (maddala, 1992:597 dan thomas, 1997: 432). teorema representasi granger menekankan bahwa bila variabel-variabel yang diamati membentuk suatu himpunan yang berkointegrasi maka model dinamis yang sahih atau valid adalah model koreksi kesalahan (errorcorrection model). demikian halnya bila model koreksi kesalahan merupakan model yang sahih maka variabel-variabel yang digunakan akan merupakan himpunan variabel yang berkointegrasi. sebaliknya, bila variabel yang digunakan tidak ber-kointegrasi maka residual dari model koreksi kesalahan tidak stasioner dan kondisi tersebut memberikan indikasi bahwa spesifikasi model yang diamati tidak sahih (thomas, 1997:432). menurut englegranger, ecm dapat diperoleh dari regresi antara variabel-variabel yang tidak stasioner tapi mempunyai derajat integrasi yang sama dan berkointegrasi. sehingga langkah pertama untuk mendapatkan ecm-eg adalah menyusun regresi kointegrasi sebagai berikut. struktur pasar, distribusi, dan pembentukan harga beras (ardito bhinadi) 27 yt = 0 + 1 xt + t (2) setelah didapatkan persamaan regresi yang terkointegrasi, satu keuntungan tambahan dapatlah diperoleh. menurut teori granger representation theorem, jika sebuah persamaan regresi terkointegrasi, maka persamaan tersebut dapat diformulasikan dalam bentuk model koreksi kesalahan (ecm). jika terbukti persamaan regresi kointegrasi mempunyai error t yang stasioner atau i(0), maka persamaan tersebut dapat diformulasi-kan dalam bentuk engle-granger ecm sebagai berikut. yt = 0 + 1 xt + 3 t-1 + t (3) bentuk ecm ini memberikan keuntungan bagi peneliti. pertama, peneliti dapat memperoleh gambaran apakah variabel dalam persamaan terkointegrasi atau tidak. kedua, peneliti dapat mengamati proses menuju keseimbangan, yang tercermin dalam model dinamik jangka pendek, namun juga peneliti dapat mencermati kondisi keseimbangan jangka panjang. selain itu dalam semangat dinamis, peneliti dapat mengamati kecepatan penyesuaian menuju keseimbangan, jika terjadi shock dalam perekonomian (yang tercermin dalam model). karena diasumsikan bahwa t (error correction term ect) adalah residual yang stasioner yang dihasilkan dari persamaan regresi yang terkointegrasi, yang memiliki varian konstan, maka diharapkan koefisien ect dalam model ecm akan signifikan. sehingga jika dalam model ecm, koefisien ect yang signifikan mencerminkan bahwa variabel dalam persamaan jangka panjang terkointegrasi. koefisien-koefisien dalam ecm-eg, selain koefisien ect menunjukkan pengaruh jangka pendek variabel independen terhadap variabel dependen. dalam jangka panjang terjadi keseimbangan, sehingga yt = yt-1, dan xt = xt-1, sehingga dengan memasukkan kondisi jangka panjang tersebut, koefisien jangka panjang dapat diperoleh dari hasil estimasi ecm-eg. koefisien ect dalam ecm-eg menunjukkan besarnya pengaruh shok masa lalu terhadap yt yang dalam keseimbangan. karena koefisien ect secara absolut lebih kecil dari satu, artinya setiap perubahan shok masa lalu sebesar satu unit akan menghasilkan perubahan yt yang lebih kecil dari satu. shock akan teredam menuju keseimbangan. besarnya koefisien ect mengindikasikan seberapa cepat proses penyesuaian ke arah keseimbangan tersebut. semakin besar koefisien ect (tetapi lebih kecil dari satu), semakin cepat proses menuju keseimbangan. waktu penyesuaian menuju keseimbangan akan sebesar (1/3) unit waktu (tergantung unit waktu penelitian). hasil dan pembahasan struktur pasar beras struktur pasar beras tingkat produsen di diy kompetitif, karena petani umumnya memiliki sawah tidak luas, dan mendapat saingan dari luar diy. pada tingkat distributor (pedagang besar), struktur pasarnya lebih mengarah ke oligopoli, sedang pada tingkat pengecer, struktur pasar beras semakin kompetitif (lihat tabel 1 dalam lampiran). beras yang diperdagangkan di diy banyak berasal dari luar diy. kondisi ini terlihat dari asal beras yang dijual oleh pedagang besar dan pengecer 2, sebanyak 40 persen berasal dari luar diy. sinyalemen selama ini yang menyatakan bahwa diy surplus beras menunjukkan bahwa tidak semua beras hasil produksi petani di diy diperdagangkan. sebanyak 16,75 persen hasil panen padi dari petani disimpan untuk dikonsumsi sendiri oleh para petani (lihat tabel 2 dalam lampiran). banyaknya beras yang dipasok dari luar diy ini berdampak pada besarnya ketergantungan pasokan beras dari luar diy. apabila produksi dan jalur distribusi beras dari luar diy terganggu, maka perdagangan beras di diy juga terganggu, harga beras akan mengalami kenaikan. pada saat kondisi ramai, pedagang besar mampu menjual beras melebihi kuantitas penjualan pengepul di diy. fakta ini memperkuat gambaran sebelumnya yang menguraikan pedagang beras di diy banyak mendapatkan pasokan beras dari luar provinsi diy (lihat tabel 3). jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 13, nomor 1, april 2012: 24-32 28 tabel 3. kuantitas penjualan beras pada berbagai kondisi (kg/hari) no pelaku pasar kondisi ramai kondisi normal kondisi sepi 1 produsen 2 pengepul 1.783 975 675 3 pedagang besar 2.320 555 290 4 pengecer 1 1.148 239 123 5 pengecer 2 49 36 26 sumber: hasil survei, data diolah. distribusi beras jalur distribusi beras dari produsen sampai dengan pengecer di diy berasal dari dua arah. mengingat tidak semua beras yang diproduksi petani di diy diperdagangkan (sebagian dikonsumsi sendiri oleh petani), maka untuk memenuhi permintaan pasar, sebagian beras diperoleh dari luar provinsi diy. pengepul di diy memperoleh beras dari petani di diy dan luar diy. pedagang besar untuk memenuhi permintaan pasar beras di diy mendapatkan pasokan dari pengepul di diy dan luar diy. pengecer 1 mendapatkan pasokan beras dari pedagang besar di diy. pengecer 2 mendapatkan pasokan beras dari pengecer 1 di diy dan pedagang besar di luar diy (lihat gambar 1). melihat jalur distribusi tersebut, tampak bahwa pemain beras dari luar diy ikut mewarnai perdagangan beras di diy sebagai pemasok beras. gambar 1. jalur distribusi beras cara mendistribusikan beras ke pembeli untuk produsen, pengepul dan pedagang besar relatif sama. sebagian besar pembeli pada tingkatan masing-masing mengambil sendiri komoditasnya dari pemasok. pada tingkat produsen dan pengepul, sebanyak 80 persen pembeli mengambil sendiri komoditas dagangannya. pada tingkat pedagang besar, 75 persen pembeli mengambil sendiri komoditas dagangannya, dan pada tingkat pengecer 1 sebanyak 84 persen pembeli mengambil sendiri komoditas dagangannya. pada tingkatan pengecer 2, semua konsumen mengambil sendiri beras yang dibelinya (lihat tabel 4). tabel 4. cara mendistribusikan beras ke pembeli no pelaku pasar diantar ke tempat pembeli pembeli mengambil sendiri 1 produsen 20% 80% 2 pengepul 20% 80% 3 pedagang besar 25% 75% 4 pengecer 1 16% 84% 5 pengecer 2 100% sumber: hasil survei, data diolah. hambatan dalam distribusi beras pada tingkat produsen, pengepul, dan pedagang besar hampir tidak dirasakan oleh responden. hambatan distribusi beras baru dirasakan pada tingkat pengecer 1 dan pengecer 2. pada tingkat pengecer 1 hambatan yang paling dominan sering dihadapi adalah adanya cuaca buruk yang menghambat distribusi, sedangkan pada pengecer 2 hambatan yang sering ditemui adalah persoalan sedikitnya pasokan. pembentukan harga beras harga jual beras pada berbagai kondisi dan tingkatan pelaku pasar berbeda-beda. secara umum, harga beras pada kondisi panen lebih murah daripada kondisi normal dan pada kondisi paceklik lebih mahal daripada kondisi normal. pengepul memperoleh margin (selisih harga perolehan komoditas dengan harga jual) paling besar. pada kondisi normal, pengepul memperoleh margin sebesar 115 persen. pedagang besar memperoleh margin sebesar 11 persen, pengecer 1 memperoleh margin sebesar 5 persen, dan pengecer 2 memperoleh margin 3 struktur pasar, distribusi, dan pembentukan harga beras (ardito bhinadi) 29 persen. semakin ke hilir, maka margin keuntungan beras semakin kecil. tabel 5. harga jual beras pada berbagai kondisi (rp/kg) no pelaku pasar kondisi panen kondisi normal kondisi paceklik 1 produsen 2.575 2.975 3.450 2 pengepul 5.610 6.400 6.700 3 pedagang besar 5.940 7.100 7.283 4 pengecer 1 6.926 7.480 7.640 5 pengecer 2 7.180 7.690 8.540 sumber: hasil survei, data diolah. pada tingkat produsen, harga beras ditentukan oleh pembeli, yaitu pengepul. pada tingkat pengepul, pengecer 1 dan pengecer 2, harga beras mengikuti harga pasar tertinggi. cara menentukan harga beras pada tingkat pedagang besar mengikuti harga pesaing (lihat tabel 6). kondisi ini menggambarkan bahwa pengepul sebagai pelaku utama penentu harga beras di pasar. harga jual beras di diy dari tingkat produsen hingga ke pengecer 1 secara dominan dipengaruhi oleh faktor ketersedian pasokan, harga kebutuhan pokok,biaya pengiriman dan nilai tukar rupiah/dollar as (lihat tabel 7 dalam lampiran). hal ini sejalan dengan harga jual beras yang terdeteksi mengalami penurunan dari harga normal jika sedang panen, kemudian akan mengalami kenaikan harga saat kondisi paceklik. pada tingkat pengecer 2, faktor yang menentukan harga jual beras adalah biaya pengiriman, ketersediaan pasokan dan harga kebutuhan pokok. nilai tukar rupiah/dollar as tidak mempengaruhi harga jual beras. berdasarkan biaya yang dikeluarkan setiap tingkatan pelaku pasar, diperoleh informasi bahwa sebagian besar biaya yang dikeluarkan pelaku pasar terserap ke sektor transportasi dengan persentase yang berbeda untuk setiap tingkat pelaku pasar (lihat tabel 8 dalam lampiran). selain biaya transportasi, biaya pengepakan dan bongkar muat memiliki persentase lebih tinggi pada tingkat pedagang besar dan pengecer 1. besarnya margin beras masing-masing pelaku pasar bervariasi. ditingkat produsen, pengepul, pedagang besar margin yang dilakukan bervariasi. pada tingkat pengecer 2 sebagian besar responden bervariasi dalam menentukan margin beras (80 persen) sedangkan sisanya sebesar 20 persen memilih tetap dalam menentukan variasi margin harga beras (lihat tabel 9). tabel 9. variasi margin beras no pelaku pasar tetap bervariasi 1 produsen 100% 2 pengepul 100% 3 pedagang besar 100% 4 pengecer 1 100% 5 pengecer 2 20% 80% sumber: hasil survei, data diolah. besarnya margin beras disetiap tingkatan pelaku pasar berbeda satu dengan yang lainnya. namun faktor harga pesaing menjadi faktor dominan dengan memiliki bobot tertinggi baik di tingkat produsen, pengepul, pedagang besar dan pengecer 1. sementara di tingkat pengecer 2 terdeteksi memiliki bobot yang terdistribusi cukup merata yaitu faktor harga pembelian, biaya hidup dan biaya usaha, masing-masing sebesar 25 persen, kemudian faktor harga pesaing dan pasokan masingmasing sebesar 13 persen (lihat tabel 10). hal ini menunjukkan bahwa secara umum faktor harga pesaing menjadi faktor penentu tabel 6. cara menentukan harga jual beras no cara menentukan harga produsen pengepul pedagang besar pengecer 1 pengecer 2 1 mengikuti harga pasar tertinggi 2 1 4 1 1 2 mengikuti harga pesaing 3 2 1 2 3 3 ditentukan oleh pembeli 1 3 4 4 biaya produksi+margin 4 4 2 3 2 5 lainnya 3 catatan: 1,2,3,4,5 berdasarkan ranking mulai tertinggi sampai terendah. sumber: hasil survei, data diolah. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 13, nomor 1, april 2012: 24-32 30 utama besarnya margin beras di tingkat produsen, pengepul, pedagang besar, dan pengecer 1. sedangkan di tingkat pengecer 2 memiliki faktor beragam yang terdistribusi cukup merata. berdasarkan hasil estimasi menggunakan model houck dengan pendekatan ecm-eg nilai t-stat perubahan harga di tingkat hulu tidak signifikan pada tingkat signifikansi 5%. dalam ecm-eg, koefisien ect yang signifikan mencerminkan bahwa variabel dalam persamaan jangka panjang terkointegrasi. koefisien dalam ecm-eg, selain koefisien ect menunjukkan pengaruh jangka pendek variabel independent terhadap variabel dependent. hasil estimasi pada komoditas beras menunjukan dalam jangka pendek perubahan harga beras di tingkat hulu tidak signifikan mempengaruhi perubahan harga di tingkat hilir (pengecer). adapun nilai t-stat ect tidak signifikan hal ini menunjukkan tidak adanya hubungan dalam jangka panjang antara harga hulu dan harga hilir (lihat tabel 11). tabel 11. hasil estimasi menggunakan model houck untuk beras variabel β s.e t-stat konstanta dpberas tingkat hulu ect 5,833177 0,757788 -0,862978 56,68092 2,287720 2,296398 0,102913 0,331242 -0,375798 r2 f-stat 0,013024 0,296903 apabila dilihat tandanya, maka koefisien perubahan harga beras di tingkat hulu bertanda positif. artinya, dalam jangka pendek harga pada tingkat pengecer (hilir) lebih cepat atau lebih penuh bereaksi terhadap harga beras di tingkat hulu ketika harga naik dibandingkan ketika harga turun. kondisi ini berdampak negatif pada konsumen, karena dalam jangka pendek kenaikan harga di tingkat hulu akan direaksi secara cepat oleh pengecer dengan ikut menaikkan harga. sebaliknya, ketika harga pada tingkat hulu turun, pengecer relatif lebih lambat untuk ikut menurunkan harga. koefisien ect bertanda negatif tetapi tidak signifikan, artinya dalam jangka panjang, harga hulu dan harga hilir tidak berkointegrasi dalam jangka panjang, berarti dalam hal ini kemungkinan terjadi asymetric information. simpulan struktur pasar beras di diy beragam sesuai dengan tingkatan pelaku pasar. pada tingkat produsen (petani), struktur pasar beras kompetitif. pada tingkat distributor (pedagang besar), struktur pasarnya lebih mengarah ke oligopoli, sedang pada tingkat pengecer, struktur pasar beras semakin kompetitif. pola distribusi beras di diy mengikuti jalur panjang, yaitu dari produsen  pengepul  pedagang besar  pengecer  konsumen. banyak beras dipasok dari luar diy, sehingga gangguan kelancaran distribusi beras dari luar diy bisa berdampak pada harga-harga beras di diy. hambatan distribusi beras adalah buruknya cuaca dan sedikitnya pasokan. porsi biaya terbesar dari perdagangan beras adalah transportasi, diikuti pengepakan dan bongkar muat. pada tingkat produsen, harga beras ditentukan oleh pembeli; di tingkat pengepul mengikuti harga pasar tertinggi; di tingkat pedagang besar mengikuti harga pesaing, dan di tingkat pengecer mengikuti harga pasar tertinggi. faktor-faktor yang menentukan harga jual beras dari produsen hingga pengecer sama, yaitu ketersediaan pasokan. dalam jangka pendek perubahan harga beras di tingkat hulu tabel 10. faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi besarnya margin beras no faktor yang mempengaruhi produsen pengepul pedagang besar pengecer 1 pengecer 2 1 harga pembelian 25% 2 harga pesaing 100% 36,36% 71% 55% 13% 3 pasokan 13% 4 biaya hidup 27,27% 29% 27% 25% 5 biaya usaha 36,36% 18% 25% sumber: hasil survei, data diolah. struktur pasar, distribusi, dan pembentukan harga beras (ardito bhinadi) 31 tidak signifikan mempengaruhi perubahan harga di tingkat hilir (pengecer). implikasi dari kesimpulan mengenai struktur pasar, pola distribusi dan penetapan harga beras di diy terhadap kebijakan pengendalian harga adalah upaya pengendalian harga beras yang dilakukan oleh pemerintah diy tidak akan bisa banyak berarti. penentu harga beras ada pada tingkat pengepul yang sebagian besar berasal dari luar diy. kebijakan pengendalian harga akan efektif jika pemerintah diy memiliki pasokan beras yang memadai untuk intervensi pasar. peran bulog sebagai lembaga peyangga komoditas beras harus dihidupkan dan difungsikan kembali dengan benar. daftar pustaka engle, robert f. and byung sam yoo. 1987. forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems. journal of econometrics 35, 143159. maddala, g.s. 1992. introduction to econometrics. new york: macmillan publishing company. prastowo, n. j., dkk. 2008. effect of distribution to commodity price and its implication to inflation. http://www.bi.go.id/web/id/ publikasi/jurnal+ekonomi/ robert f. engle; c. w. j. granger. co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation, and testing. econometrica, vol. 55, no. 2. (mar., 1987), 251-276. thomas, r.l. 1997. an introduction modern econometrics. england: addison-wesley longman limited. lampiran tabel 1. konsentrasi rasio beras di berbagai pasar di diy keterangan kranggan beringharjo demangan lainnya total pengepul jumlahsampel 6 jumlah total 6 rasio sampel (%) 100% jumlahomsetsampel 7.350 jumlahomset total 25.000 rasio omset (%) 29% pedagang besar jumlahsampel 2 2 1 5 jumlah total 3 6 5 14 rasio sampel (%) 66,7% 33,3% 20% 36% jumlahomsetsampel 950 1.800 250 3.000 jumlahomset total 3000 6.000 2.000 11.000 rasio omset (%) 32% 30% 12,5% 27% pengecer 1 jumlahsampel 3 3 6 jumlah total 11 6 17 rasio 27% 50% 35% jumlahomsetsampel 325 1.095 1.420 jumlahomset total 1.830 1.500 3.330 rasio 17,6% 73% 43% pengecer2 jumlahsampel 5 5 jumlah total 19 19 rasio 26% 26% jumlahomsetsampel 179 179 jumlahomset total 1675 1675 rasio 11% 11% sumber: hasil survei, data diolah. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 13, nomor 1, april 2012: 24-32 32 tabel 2. asal beras yang dijual oleh masing-masing pelaku pasar no uraian pengepul pedagang besar pengecer 1 pengecer 2 1 produsen provinsi diy 97% luar provinsi 3% 2 pengepul provinsi diy 60% luar provinsi 40% 3 pedagang besar provinsi diy 100% luar provinsi 4 pengecer 1 provinsi diy 60% luar provinsi 40% sumber: hasil survei, data diolah. tabel 7. faktor-faktor yang menentukan harga jual beras no faktor yang menentukan produsen pengepul pedagang besar pengecer 1 pengecer 2 1 biaya sarana produksi 3 2 biaya pengiriman 2 3 3 3 1 3 ketersediaan pasokan 1 1 1 1 2 4 harga kebutuhan pokok 2 2 2 2 3 5 nilai tukar rupiah/dolar as 4 4 4 4 sumber: hasil survei, data diolah. tabel 8. biaya-biaya perdagangan beras no biaya-biaya pengepul pedagang besar pengecer 1 pengecer 2 1 total biaya (rp/kg) 100 200 158 248 2 transportasi (%) 75% 36% 42% 61% 3 pengepakan (%) 16% 54% 50% 34% 4 bongkar/muat (%) 10% 10% 8% 4% sumber: hasil survei, data diolah. microsoft word 09-gigih jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 2, oktober 2014, hlm.182-189   adaptasi nelayan perikanan laut tangkap dalam menghadapi perubahan iklim nurtjahja moegni1, ahmad rizki2, gigih prihantono3 1,2,3 fakultas ekonomi universitas airlangga jalan airlangga no.4 surabaya 60286, indonesia. phone: (031) 5033642 e-mail korespondensi: gigih.prihantono@yahoo.co.id naskah diterima: maret 2013; disetujui: agustus 2014 abstract: this study presents the response of fisheries management to the extreme climatic affect marine fisheries in jember district. extreame weather la nina and el nino increasing sea wave and change wild fish population, causing increasing cost for fisherman. quantitative methodology for use research in use data maritime ministry, the national oceanic and atmospheres administration, bmkg and primery data. this study suggests that responding to extreme climatic influences on fisheries include (1) establishing an early warning system by connecting fisheries agencies and marine research institutions to assist decision makers in performing time-adaptive measures, (2) temporarily suspending subsidy activity to help managing cost in extreame weather, (3) develop research technology for managing extreme weather events. keywords: fisheries; marine; climate change; extreme weather; updating; subsidies jel classification: d24, h23, q22 abstrak: studi ini menggambarkan respon dari managemen perikanan laut tangkat dengan kejadian cuaca ekstrim yang mempengaruhi perikanan laut tangkap di kabupaten jember. kejadian la nina dan el nino menyebabkan semakin tingginya gelombang laut dan perubahan arus ikan sehingga meningkatkan biaya melaut nelayan. metode penelitian yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif yang didukung datadata dari kementrian kelautan dan perikanan, the national oceanic and atmospheric administration (noaa), bmkg dan survey. hasil dari studi ini menunjukkan bahwa untuk merespon pengaruh cuaca ekstrim pada industry perikanan laut harus mencakup beberapa hal. pertama, mendirikan sistem peringatan dini dengan menghubungkan lembaga perikanan, bmkg dan lembaga penelitian kelautan untuk membantu pengambilan keputusan dalam melakukan langkah-langkah adaptif dengan membentuk pusat monitoring lingkungan. sementara waktu memberlakukan sistem subsidi pada kegiatan penangkapan ikan untuk mengurangi biaya yang timbul akibat cuaca ekstrim. tiga, melakukan penelitian untuk mengembangkan tekonologi, guna mengelola perubahan cuaca ekstrim yang terjadi. kata kunci: nelayan; perikanan; perubahan iklim; cuaca ekstrim; updating; subsidi klasifikasi jel: d24, h23, q22 pendahuluan industri pengelolaan perikanan laut merupakan industri yang rentan terhadap perubahan cuaca ekstrim yang diakibatkan oleh fenomena pemanasan global. pengaruh tersebut berasal dari sisi supply di mana dapat terjadi penurunan jumlah tangkapan yang dihasilkan nelayan. salah satu dampak dari perubahan iklim global adalah terjadinya fenomena elnino (meningkatnya suhu samudera pasifik) dan la nina (menurunnya suhu samudera pasifik) yang mempengaruhi samudera-samudera di seluruh dunia. terjadinya fenomena tersebut mengakibatkan suhu permukaan air laut berubah, sehingga mempengaruhi pola adaptasi nelayan perikanan ... (nurtjahja moegni, ahmad rizki, gigih prihantono) 183 kehidupan ikan. perubahan suhu akan mempengaruhi zona upwelling (tempat mencari makan) ikan dapat mengakibatkan tidak hanya penurunan, tetapi juga pergeseran populasi spesies ikan ke laut yang lebih dingin atau panas. selain itu terjadinya fenomena tersebut juga mengakibatkan kenaikan gelombang yang mempengaruhi biaya melaut nelayan. donnelly dan woodruf (2007) menunjukkan bahwa terjadinya el nino atau la nina mempengaruhi terjadinya intensitas badai di wilayah atlantik afrika barat. mereka menyimpulkan bahwa periode badai atlantik intensitasnya cenderung meningkat bersamaan dengan terjadinya el nino atau la nina. terjadinya el nino dan la nina akan mengakibatkan perubahan sirkulasi lautan dan menguah habitat laut (allison, dkk; 2009). mereka menemukan bahwa peningkatan suhu air laut akan membatasi produksi primer, meningkatkan pemutihan karang dan mengurangi keanekaragaman hayati beberapa ekosistem. temuan dari chang, dkk (2009) dan hsieh, dkk (2008) melaporkan terjadinya peristiwa perubahan suhu air yang ekstrim pada wilayah perairan kepulauan penghu negara taiwan bagian selatan mengakibatkan kematian ikan laut disekitar wilayah tersebut. indonesia merupakan negara maritime yang diapit oleh dua samudera yaitu samudera pasifik dan samudera hindia. sehingga ketika terjadi perubahan suhu dan cuaca ekstirm di wilayah samudera pasifik akibat el nino atau la nina akan meningkatkan tinggi gelombang di seluruh laut wilayah indonesia. hasil penelitian kurniawan (2012) menunjukkan bahwa terdapat korelasi tinggi antara indeks nino dengan peningkatan tinggi gelombang yang terjadi di wilayah perairan indonesia. wilayah perairan indonesia yang mempunyai korelasi tinggi dengan terjadi el nino dan la nina adalah perairan utara maluku dan perairan selatan jawa. sehingga ketika terjadi el nino dan la nina dapat diprediksi dua perairan tersebut akan mengalami kenaikan tinggi gelombang dari rata-rata tinggi normalnya. wilayah pesisir selatan jawa terdiri dari 5 provinsi dan 22 kabupaten. wilayah pesisir selatan jawa yang paling banyak dan paling luas dimiliki oleh provinsi jawa timur dengan 8 kabupaten, salah satunya adalah kabupaten jember. fokus penelitian ini ditetapkan di wilayah laut selatan jatim tepatnya adalah kabupaten jember. kabupaten jember dipilih sebagai daerah penelitian dikarenakan beberapa alasan. alasan pertama adalah selama 15 tahun terakhir terhitung dari tahun 1998 sampai tahun 2013 hasil tangkapan laut kabupaten ini cenderung konstan di angka 8000 sampai 9000 ton. alasan kedua diperkirakan kabupaten ini mempunyai potensi sektor perikanan mencapai 40.000 ton per tahun namun potensi sektor perikanan yang ada saat ini belum dimanfaatkan secara optimal (www.dkp jember.com). alasan ketiga adalah jumlah nelayan kabupaten jember selama 15 tahun terakhir terhitung dari tahun 1998 sampai tahun 2013 cenderung konstan antara 14.000 sampai 15.000 dibandingkan wilayah pesisir selatan jawa timur lain. karena hal tersebut menarik untuk dicermati bagaimana pengaruh dampak perubahan cuaca ekstrim terhadap kondisi sosial ekonomi nelayan di kabupaten jember. metode penelitian untuk mengestimasi efek dari perubahan cuaca asing pada kondisi sosial ekonomi nelayan di kabupaten jember, maka penelitian ini menggunakan survey lapangan kepada para nelayan di sana. metode penarikan sampel dalam penelitian ini menggunakan random sampling sebanyak 100 nelayan. untuk memperkirakan dampak pemanasan global bagi nelayan, maka penelitian ini menggunakan model pilihan lokasi (model of locational choice). karena lokasi melaut berpindah-pindah secara random, maka yang bisa kami lakukan hanya melakukan pengukuran asumsi berdasarkan wilayah rata-rata mencari ikan sebagai berikut: 1) daerah melaut yang dekat dari pantai atau masih terlihat untuk melaut; 2) daerah melaut jauh dari pantai tetapi masih di wilayah kabupaten jember; 3) daerah melaut di luar kabupaten jember. pembagian wilayah tersebut diambil dikarenakan, tiga kategori tersebut mewakili pilihan nelayan di wilayah kabupaten jember untuk melakukan pencarian ikan. untuk memilih apakah nelayan memutuskan memilih jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 2, oktober 2014: 182-189 184 salah satu tiga tempat tersebut, kami mengasumsikan terdapat dua faktor besar yaitu ekspektasi keuntungan pada pilihan lokasi dan biaya yang harus dikeluarkan. untuk membentuk ekspektasi keuntungan pada pilihan lokasi, kami melakukan kalkusi berdasarkan keuntungan yang didapat ketika nelayan melakukan trip di lokasi tersebut dan diperbarui oleh informasi tentang berapa lama nelayan sering melakukan trip di daerah tersebut sebelumnya. perhitungan biaya dihitung berdasarkan, total cost yang harus dikeluarkan nelayan rata-rata setiap kali mereka melakukan trip. selain itu pemilihan trip juga ditentukan oleh jenis kapal yang digunakan oleh nelayan. model estimasi ekonometri menggunakan model nested logistik dari kondisi tersebut adalah sebagai berikut: 1) variabel vi menggambarkan pilihan nelayan untuk melakukan kegiatan menangkap ikan atau tidak. variabel profit menunjukkan rata-rata keuntungan pada lokasi-lokasi yang tersedia diwilayah tersebut. variabel boat merupakan variabel dummy tentang perahu yang digunakan oleh nelayan. jika perahu yang digunakan berjenis jukung maka bernilai nol dan jika bukan jukung maka bernilai 1. tc adalah variabel yang menunjukkan total biaya pada saat nelayan berangkat satu kali melaut. secara keseluruhan, jumlah nelayan yang diamati adalah 100 kapal dan melakukan trip berpindah adalah sebanyak 12 kali per kapal. pengumpulan data menggunakan log book yang berisi informasi terkait tanggal, lokasi dan penggunaan input. dari data tersebut maka bisa diketahui pola nelayan dalam melakukan penangkapan ikan. data tinggi gelombang didadapat dari the national oceanic and atmospheric administration (noaa) dan badan meteorology klimatologi dan geofisika (bmkg). efek el nino dan la nina terhadap tinggi gelombang selama periode amatan terhadap data-data tinggi gelombang laut kabupaten jember, kami melakukan pembagian perhitungan menjadi tiga kategori. kategori pertama adalah perhitungan rata-rata tinggi gelombang pada waktu normal tidak terdapat el nino maupun la nina. kategori kedua adalah rata-rata tinggi gelombang pada waktu terjadinya el nino dan kategori ketiga adalah rata-rata tinggi gelombang pada waktu terjadinya la nina. grafik dari perhitungan tersebut dapat dilihat pada gambar 1. data yang ditunjukkan pada gambar 1 memberikan pesan bahwa terjadinya el nino dan la nina yang diukur dair tahun terjadinya el nino dan la nina serta data tinggi gelombang laut dari bmkg mempengaruhi terciptanya variasi tinggi gelombang. data pada gambar, menunjukkan bahwa volatilitas gelombang yang disebabkan oleh el nino lebih kecil dari pada gelombang yang disebabkan oleh la nina. nelayan kabupaten jember menghadapi gelombang tinggi ketika terjadi pada bulan februari serta bulan juli sampai september, pada periode tersebut gelombang laut di perairan jember rata-rata mencapai tinggi lebih dari 2 meter. ketika ketinggian gelombang mencapai gambar 1. rata-rata tinggi gelombang laut kabupaten jember adaptasi nelayan perikanan ... (nurtjahja moegni, ahmad rizki, gigih prihantono) 185 2 meter maka hampir seluruh jenis kapal penangkapan ikan yang sedang berlayar akan terpengaruh (guide marine meteorological servce, 2001). kondisi tersebut semakin buruk ketika wilayah laut kabupaten jember terkena anomali la nina. anomali la nina menyebabkan gelombang laut rata-rata mencapai tiga meter pada periode april sampai september. kondisi ini memiliki konsekuensi yang sangat besar bagi pencarian ikan bagi nelayan. nelayan akan memerlukan lebih banyak bahan bakar untuk dapat berlayar dengan baik pada saat terjadinya gelombang tinggi. gelombang tinggi juga memberikan dampak tidak dapat berlayarnya jukung nelayan (prihantono,2010). kenaikan suhu permukaan air laut membawa konsekuensi terjadinya coral bleaching, bergesernya habitat dan dapat sampai hilangnya spesies laut. selain dampak langsung terhadap perikanan, meningkatnya tinggi gelombang laut berimplikasi pada kegiatan aquaculture dan water supplies masyarakat pesisir. efek el nino dan la nina terhadap lingkungan laut terjadinya el nino dan la nina menyebabkan perubahan suhu air laut yang signifikan. meskipun sebagian besar lautan mengalami suhu air yang tinggi di bawah pengaruh peruabahan iklim, namun kejadian cuaca dingin ekstrim juga telah banyak dilaporkan dalam beberapa tahun terakhir. memahami efek lokal akibat dari perubahan iklim terhadap ekosistem laut sangat penting dikarenakan masyarakat pesisir membutuhkan informasi tersebut. penelitian dari kuo dan ho (2004) menunjukkan bahwa angin muson timur di wilayah samudera hinda jauh lebih kuat selama terjadinya la nina pada musim dingin 1998/1999 dari pada el nino pada musim dingin 1997/1998. chang, dkk (2009) melaporkan bahwa kecepatan angin di laut cina selatan meningkat tajam dan berlangsung dalam waktu yang lama selama terjadinya la nina sehingga menyebabkan pergeseran arus hangat ke wilayah laut jawa sampai samudera hindia yang mengakibatkan penurunan suhu air yang signifikan. kondisi perubahan iklim juga berdampak pada interaksi antara laut dan udara. pada gambar 2 menunjukkan hasil statistik dari distribusi kekuatan yang lebih dari 6 m/s. periode kecepatan angin yang kuat (6 m/s <) selama terjadinya la nina berlangsung 8 sampai 19 hari dan ketika terjadi el-nino durasi waktunya hanya 2-8 hari. terjadinya kondisi tersebut, membuat produksi ikan menurun yang berujung pada menurunnya pendapatan dan ketahanan pangan, sehingga nelayan mencari mata pencaharian alternatif atau menggunakan teknik memancing yang dapat menghasilkan lebih banyak tangkapan tetapi membebani ekosistem laut (brashares, 2004). perubahan ekstrim pada lingkungan laut dapat merubah tata cara pengelolaan pesisir dan stabilitas sosial ekonomi disana. kondisi tersebut membuat pengelolaan perikanan laut tangkap harus berubah untuk dapat beradaptasi dengan adanya perubahan iklim (allison, dkk: 2006; grafton, 2010 dan mcilgorm, dkk: 2010). namun untuk mengubah kondisi tersebut, pemerintah daerah belum menyediakan langkah-langkah adaptif dan belum terdapat gambar 2 variasi kekuatan angin pada wilayah pesisir kabupaten jember jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 2, oktober 2014: 182-189 186 payung hukum di dalamya. khususnya peraturan yang mengatur pengelolaan ekosistem pesisir di mana memang pengaruh perubahan iklim tidak dapat dirasakan secara langsung. untuk itu yang bisa kami lakukan adalah melakukan model estimasi dan memperkirakan dampak kesejahteraannya agar memperkuat argumentasi perlu yang memerlukan mitigasi terhadap perubahan iklim. hasil dan pembahasan masalah empiris yang harus dipecahkan ketika terjadi perubahan iklim, bagaimana perubahan perilaku nelayan dalam melakukan kegiatan melaut. untuk mengatasi hal tersebut maka digunakanlah pengukuran tempat alternatif tangkapan yang disusun berdasarkan tiga alternatif. pada model pertama diasumsikan bahwa nelayan dapat memperbarui harapan mereka untuk kembali ke tempat tangkapan meskipun mereka mempunyai pengalaman bahwa tempat tersebut tidak memberikan hasil yang tangkapan yang bagus (updating). dalam model berikutnya, diasumsikan bahwa nelayan tidak akan kembali ke tempat penangkapan yang tidak memberikan hasil tangkapan yang bagus dalam jangka satu bulan. model terakhir adalah “mixed model” di mana asumsi yang digunakan nelayan selalu melakukan update informasi untuk mendapatkan harapan pada hasil yang diperoleh. bisa saja nelayan tersebut datang pada situs memancing yang tidak menghasilkan dalam waktu dekat atau nelayan tersebut mendengar informasi dari nelayan lain dan kemudian mendatangi lokasi yang tidak menghasilkan pada saat sedang berada di tengah laut. tabel 1 menunjukkan hasil estimasi keputusan nelayan pada pilihan situs perikanan untuk masing-masing model menunjukkan tingkat signifikan sebesar 0,05. tanda pada koefisien pada semua variabel sesuai dengan teori yang ada. secara khusus variabel sprofit mempunyai efek positif meningkatkan probabilitas keputusan nelayan pada ketiga tempat tersebut. hal tersebut mempunyai arti bahwa keputusan nelayan untuk memilih kembali, tidak kembali atau nanti kembali dalam waktu dekat pada suatu situs ditentukan oleh seberapa besar ekspektasi keuntungan yang akan didapat. variabel boat juga berpengaruh signifikan positif terhadap pengambilan keputusan nelayan dalam menentukan pilihan situs penangkapan ikan. ketika nelayan mendapatkan informasi tentang suatu situs penangkapan, nelayan mempertimbangkan jenis kapal yang mereka punya. semakin kapal tersebut memiliki kapasitas gross ton yang lebih besar maka semakin besar kemungkinan para nelayan berpindah situs mengikuti informasi yang ada. kondisi ini juga menjelaskan bahwa semakin tinggi teknologi yang digunakan maka nelayan akan lebih mampu beradaptasi terhadap kondisi perubahan iklim. variabel tc (total cost) memberikan gambaran negatif terhadap keputusan nelayan dalam menentukan pilihan situsnya. dapat dilihat pada ketiga model, bahwa nilai negatif variabel tc paling besar pada model no updating, hal ini memberikan indikasi bahwa kemungkinan besar nelayan tidak mau kembali ke situs yang tidak menghasilkan dikarenakan biaya untuk kembali lebih besar, meskipun mereka mendapat informasi tambahan bahwa situs tersebut memiliki panen ikan yang besar pada saat ini. tabel 1. hasil empiris model nested logistik updating no updating mixed sprofit 0,03473 (18,273)** 0,0083 (14,821)** 0,00573 (15,102)** boat 0,1372 (11,912)** 0,6681 (24,891)** 0,0834 (20,356)** tc -0,427 (32,283)* -0,735 (39,101)** -0,524 (41,621)* site pseudo r2 0,68 0,54 0,73 fishery/target pseudo r2 0,42 0,37 0,52 percentage of choice occasions correctly predicted 62,6 64,1 72,7 * t-statistic value significant in level 0,05 uji tambahan dari model tersebut adalah kemampuan prediksi model dalam memprediksi keputusan nelayan dalam memilih. dari hasil r2 memperlihatkan bahwa mixed model adaptasi nelayan perikanan ... (nurtjahja moegni, ahmad rizki, gigih prihantono) 187 memiliki persentase tertinggi dalam memprediksi perubahan tersebut. kondisi ini menunjukkan bahwa adaptasi nelayan dalam era perubahan iklim ini adalah melakukan perhitungan-perhitungan yang lebih rasional dalam menentukan keputusan untuk menangkap ikan disuatu situs. para nelayan akan mengelola informasi baik dari ekspektasi keuntungan yang diperoleh, kapal yang digunakan dan biaya yang harus dikeluarkan ketika terjadi tambahan informasi tentang suatu situs. ketika pertimbangan tiga variabel tersebut dirasa masih dapat mendatangkan keuntungan, para nelayan akan pergi ke suatu situs yang diinformasikan meskipun berdasarkan pengalaman mereka sebelumnya situs tersebut tidak memberikan keuntungan yang lebih. berdasarkan model pada tabel 1 maka dapat diperkirakan perkiraan subsidi yang dapat diberikan akibat terjadinya dampak perubahan iklim pada masing-masing model. perkiraan nilai subsidi diukur dalam mata uang rupiah untuk sekali melaut. hasil estimasi tingkat kesejahteraan secara lengkap dapat dilihat pada tabel 2. tabel 2. estimasi besarnya subsidi akibat perubahan iklim updating no updating mixed melaut dekat pantai rp. 19.340 rp. 15.000 rp. 25.270 melaut wilayah jember rp. 26.820 rp. 17.420 rp. 34.810 melaut luar wilayah jember rp. 36.715 rp. 21.250 rp. 49.800 secara keseluruhan, perhitungan model menghasilkan suatu estimasi bagi nelayan di kabupaten jember perlu diberikan subsidi untuk menutupi keuntungan yang hilang akibat dampak perubahan iklim. untuk nelayan yang wilayah melautnya dekat pantai dapat diberikan bantuan subsidi antara rp15.000 sampai rp25.270 untuk setiap melaut. untuk nelayan yang melaut jauh dari pantai tetapi masih di wilayah kabupaten jember dapat diberikan bantuan subsidi antara rp17.420 sampai rp34.810. untuk nelayan yang melaut di luar wilayah kabupaten jember dapat diberikan bantuan subsidi antara rp21.250 – rp49.800. bentuk dari subsidi tidak hanya berupa uang tunai, tetapi lebih pada subsidi barang. seperti harga bahan bakar nelayan yang diberikan subsidi untuk pembeliannya, sehingga kondisi tersebut lebih efektif dalam mengurangi biaya melaut nelayan akibat cuaca ekstrim. penelitian menunjukkan bahwa langkahlangkah adaptif harus dilakukan dengan melihat perilaku nelayan dalam melaut. sebagai contoh, bahwa nelayan yang cenderung menetap dalam mencari ikan di suatu tempat dengan nelayan yang sering berpindah disuatu tempat harus dibedakan cara penangannya. selain itu kapal dengan kapasitas gt yang kecil dengan kapasitas gt besar juga harus dibedakan cara penangannya. dilihat dari sisi lingkungan, penelitian ini menyarankan perlunya pengelolaan sumber daya perikanan berbasis ekosistem, dengan menyediakan data dan melakukan edukasi pada nelayan tentang ketahanan biofisik laut dan dampaknya bagi kehidupan sosial-ekonomi mereka (mcilgrom dkk, 2010). bentuk dari pengurangan dampak perubahan iklim/cuaca yang ekstrim adalah membentuk sebuah unit teknis sebagai “pusat monitoring lingkungan”. di dalamnya berisi informasi biofisik laut, sosial-ekonomi nelayan dan pemerintah. penjabaran dari konsep tersebut ditampilkan pada gambar 3. pusat monitoring lingkungan mempunyai inti manfaat pada ketersediaan data biofisik lautan untuk membantu nelayan dalam mengambil keputusan melaut. pusat monitoring lingkungan ini dalam cara kerjanya terdiri dari tiga langkah terpisah. langkah pertama adalah mengkoordinasikan pengumpulan data lingkungan, cuaca dan biofisik lautan. langkah kedua adalah melakukan identifikasi potensi anomali iklim berdasarkan informasi dari data yang didapat. langkah ketiga adalah membuat keputusan adaptif pada tingkat pemerintah daerah. kemudian sumber daya manusia pada pusat monitoring lingkungan melakukan edukasi atau pengumuman kepada nelayan terkait jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 2, oktober 2014: 182-189 188 peristiwa anomali iklim, sehingga nelayan dapat mengambil langkah-langkah yang tepat untuk menanggapi peristiwa tersebut. simpulan dampak perubahan iklim pada ekosistem laut dapat berpengaruh terhadap sektor perikanan laut tangkap. akibat yang ditimbulkan bagi kehidupan sosial ekonomi nelayan adalah meningkatnya biaya melaut dan berubahnya perilaku melaut nelayan. berdasarkan hasil estimasi model secara keseluruhan, memperlihatkan bahwa perilaku nelayan menangkap ikan akan berpindah tempat berdasarkan informasi yang selalu diperbaruhi. namun nelayan tidak mengetahui apakah informasi yang mereka terima dapat benar-benar memberikan keuntungan pada mereka atau malah merugikan. untuk itu pemerintah daerah perlu melakukan langkahlangkah adaptif baik dalam jangka pendek maupun dalam jangka panjang. untuk jangka pendek pemerintah daerah perlu memberikan subsidi biaya melaut pada nelayan yang disesuaikan dengan kategori mereka. dalam jangka panjang pemerintah daerah dapat membangun pusat monitoring lingkungan untuk memberikan peringatan bagi para nelayan tentang kondisi biofisik laut saat ini, 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(2010). how will climate change alter fishery governance? insights from seven international case studies. mar policy vol 34: 170–7. microsoft word 05-herjuna jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 1, april 2013, hlm.35-43 bagaimana peran lembaga keuangan baitul maal wat tamwil bagi pertumbuhan usaha mikro, kecil, dan menengah? herjuna mai hatmaka institute of public policy and economic stuides (inspect) jalan kenari 13 sidoarum iii yogyakarta, indonesia e-mail korespondensi: inspectjogya@yahoo.com naskah diterima: juli 2012; disetujui: februari 2013 abstract: this study discusses the benefit of baitul maal wat tamwil (bmt) as a microfinance institution (mfi) on the growth of small and medium scale enterprises (smes) in the state region of jatinom, klaten, jawa tengah. the study shows the detailed profile of smes, analyzing the benefit rate of mfi’s product such as credit utilization and the rate of saving utilization by smes in supporting the growth of smes. this study also aim at revealing the importance of nonfinancial services other than financial services as an effort to find missing links and bridges the real problems of smes and the real needs of smes. credit and saving have had a positive impact on the growth of smes and nonfinancial services or enterprise development services also had a positive effect on the growth of smes. based on those three positive variables, we can say that bmt has become a good facilitator toward the smes growth. keywords: microfinance institutions; small and medium enterprises; financial services; nonfinancial services; growth of smes jel classification: g21 abstrak: studi ini membahas tentang peran baitul maal wattamwil (bmt) sebagai lembaga keuangan yang menempati posisi sebagai penggerak serta pendukung pertumbuhan usaha mikro, kecil dan menengah (umkm) di wilayah kecamatan jatinom, klaten, jawa tengah. studi ini juga menyajikan gambaran profil responden umkm, menganalisa tingkat kemanfaatan produk bmt yang berupa pembiayaan dan tabungan sebagai bentuk dukungan finansial bmt. studi ini juga mengungkap peran penting dari variabel bantuan usaha yang bersifat non finansial yang disediakan bmt sebagai wujud upaya untuk menemukan hubungan antara lembaga keuangan dan nasabahnya yang selama ini jarang terungkap dan kemudian memberi solusi yang menjembatani masalah riil yang sebenarnya dialami umkm serta kebutuhan riil yang dibutuhkan oleh umkm. pembiayaan dan tabungan memberikan manfaat positif bagi pertumbuhan umkm serta terdapat juga variabel layanan nonfinansial yang dalam studi ini disebut sebagai enterprise development services yang juga memberikan manfaat positif bagi pertumbuhan umkm. berdasar ketiga variabel yang diteliti dapat dinyatakan bahwa bmt mampu menjadi fasilitator pertumbuhan umkm. kata kunci: lembaga keuangan mikro; usaha mikro, kecil dan menengah, layanan finansial, layanan non finansial, pertumbuhan usaha klasifikasi jel: g21 pendahuluan pemerintah indonesia melalui uu no. 20 tahun 2008 mengelompokkan dunia usaha dalam beberapa kelas yaitu industi mikro, industri kecil, industri menengah dan industri besar. segmentasi usaha khususnya industri mikro, kecil dan menengah sering digolongkan secara khusus karena mewakili segmen rakyat kecil dengan sebutan usaha mikro, kecil dan jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 1, april 2013: 35-43 36 menengah (umkm) serta ditangani langsung oleh lembaga pemerintah dalam lembaga kementerian koperasi dan usaha kecil dan menengah. umkm menjadi perhatian khusus pemerintah sebagai bentuk tanggungjawab memajukan tingkat kesejahteraan rakyat kecil, namun selain dari faktor tersebut ternyata umkm memegang peran penting dalam perekonomian bangsa. berdasarkan data kementerian koperasi dan usaha kecil menengah diatas yang dirilis juni 2013, terdapat 55,2 juta umkm atau 99,99 persen dari total unit usaha di indonesia yang mampu menyerap 101,72 juta tenaga kerja atau 97,3 persen dari total tenaga kerja indonesia. umkm juga menyumbang 57,12 persen dari produk domestik bruto nasional. (hasan, 2013). data yang kurang lebih sama juga tampak pada tahun 2012 seperti tampak pada tabel 1. data tersebut menunjukkan betapa besarnya pengaruh umkm bagi perekonomian nasional sehingga perhatian ekstra bagi umkm juga merupakan wujud perhatian pemerintah bagi perekonomian nasional itu sendiri. asean free trade area, asean-japan comprehensive economic partnership (ajcep), asean-korea free trade area, asean-china free trade area (acfta) dan yang terbaru adalah pasar bebas asean (asean economic community) merupakan contoh pasar global yang telah dihadapi oleh perekonomian nasional. rangkaian pasar bebas bersama tesebut memungkinkan adanya serbuan produk asing dengan harga yang relatif murah yang menjadi kompetitor serius bagi industri lokal di segala level usaha termasuk di dalamnya umkm. selain diserang dengan harga yang kompetitif, industri nasional juga harus melawan faktor lain yang sekaligus menjadi kelemahannya seperti modal, jaringan, inovasi, teknologi, promosi, manajemen dan dukungan sumberdaya profesional sehingga dapat dikatakan bahwa industri lokal terlebih industri kecil dan umkm saat ini benar-benar menghadapi tantangan yang serius. berdasarkan data bank indonesia (bi) per kuartal pertama 2013, ekspansi kredit usaha mikro, kecil dan menengah (umkm) di indonesia telah mencapai 3,4 triliun rupiah, masih jauh dari realisasi total kredit perbankan yang mencapai 63,8 trilyun rupiah. sedangkan perkembangan baki debet kredit pada kuartal pertama 2013 mencapai 555,6 trilyun rupiah. jumlah ini naik sebesar 15,5 persen dari pertumbuhan baki debit kredit kuartal sebelumnya yang hanya senilai 15,1 persen. menurut klasifikasi usaha, sebagian besar kredit disalurkan pada usaha menengah yaitu 49,2 persen dan sisanya pada kredit usaha kecil 23,9 persen dan kredit usaha mikro senilai 20, 9 persen. porsi kredit bagi usaha mikro dan usaha kecil masih relatif kecil bahkan ketika tabel 1. perkembangan usaha mikro, kecil dan menengah tahun 2011-2012 indikator 2011 2012 jumlah % jumlah % unit usaha usaha mikro 54.559.969 98,82 55.86.176 98,79 usaha kecil 602.195 1,09 626.418 1,11 usaha menengah 44.280 0,08 48.997 0,09 total umkm 55.206.444 99,99 56.534.592 99,99 tenaga kerja terserap usaha mikro 94.957.458 90,77 99.859.517 90,12 usaha kecil 3.919.992 3,75 4.535.970 4,09 usaha menengah 2.844.669 2,72 3.262.023 2,94 total umkm 101.722.458 97,24 107.657.509 97,16 proporsi terhadap pdb nasional harga berlaku (milyar rupiah) usaha mikro 2.579.388,4 34,73 2.951.120,6 35,81 usaha kecil 722.012,8 9,72 798.122,2 9,68 usaha menengah 1.002.170,3 13,49 1.123.325,3 13,59 total umkm 4.303.571,5 57,94 4.869.568,1 59,08 sumber: kementerian koperasi dan ukm, 2013 bagaimana peran lembaga keuangan ... (herjuna mai hatmaka) 37 dibandingkan dengan usaha menengah. menurut sektor ekonomi, penyaluran kredit kepada umkm dan usaha menengah masih didominasi sektor perdagangan, disusul industri pengolahan, dan terakhir oleh sektor pertanian, perburuan dan kehutanan masing-masing sebesar 49,0 persen, 10,5 persen, dan 8,5 persen. microcredit merupakan upaya pemberian pinjaman modal usaha dengan menggunakan sistem kredit konvensional biasa. bank nasional atau lembaga tertentu yang mendapatkan mandat pemerintah bahkan juga lembaga keuangan swasta yang mengkhususkan diri pada layanan masyarakat kecil memberikan kredit dengan menerapkan sistem microcredit ini. microcredit menjadi cara pembiayaan yang disukai karena ada unsur kepraktisan sekaligus kepastian return. konsep microfinance dikembangkan lebih akhir dibanding konsep microcredit, microfinance dirancang lebih terpadu dengan tidak sekedar pemberian dana saja namun pemberian fasilitas keuangan bagi umkm akan disertai dengan pinjaman modal, pelatihan kerja, akses pada tabungan, dan micro-insurance. (akram, 2011). versi riil microcredit indonesia adalah kredit usaha rakyat (kur) yang ditetapkan pemerintah lewat peraturan menteri keuangan no.135/ pmk.05/2008 tentang fasilitas penjaminan kredit usaha rakyat yang kemudian diubah dengan peraturan menteri keuangan no. 10/pmk.05/ 2009. kur memudahkan umkm untuk memperoleh akses modal tanpa agunan dengan bunga minimal 16 persen untuk kredit di atas 5 juta rupiah namun akan dikenakan bunga 24 persen jika pinjaman di bawah 5 juta rupiah. program kur didukung oleh 6 bank besar yaitu bri, mandiri, mandiri syariah, bukopin, bni, dan btn. (sofwan, 2012). pada kasus kur dan pnpm, bank cukup beruntung karena dapat mengenakan bunga kredit hingga 22 persen serta adanya jaminan kerugian dari pemerintah sebesar 70 persen jika terdapat kegagalan pembiayaan pertahun (peraturan menteri keuangan nomor 22/pmk.05/ 2010). jikalau tanpa jaminan pemerintah, kemungkinan kur tidak akan diberikan secara independen oleh dunia perbankan. potensi umkm memang tidak secerah potensi usaha tingkat menengah apalagi pengusaha kelas besar sehingga kredit bagi umkm dianggap kurang profitable oleh bank, meskipun begitu tidak berarti potensi umkm layak dikesampingkan karena jumlah umkm tentu lebih banyak daripada pengusaha tingkat menengah dan besar sehingga tetap ada potensi laba bagi lembaga keuangan yang bersedia menjalin kerjasama dengan umkm. celah inilah yang dimanfaatkan oleh koperasi simpan pinjam, bank perkreditan rakyat dan baitul maal wat tamwil (bmt). bmt berasal dari kata “baitul maal” yaitu rumah uang dan “baitul tamwil” yang berarti rumah infaq atau bank islam. secara lebih umum, bmt dinyatakan sebagai lembaga keuangan mikro yang beroperasi menggunakan konsep gabungan antara baitul maal dan baitul tamwil yang berorientasi sosial dan komersial. dikatakan sosial karena memiliki kegiatan utama menghimpun dan mendistribusikan dana zakat, infaq, dan shodaqoh. dikatakan komersil karena salah satu kegiatan utamanya adalah menghimpun uang dan mendistribusikannya kembali kepada anggota dengan imbalan bagi hasil tambahan margin (zainal, 2010). dalam operasionalnya, bmt menggunakan sistem bagi hasil sebagai metode utama pembiayaan. sistem bagi hasil dianggap sebagai sistem terbaik karena lebih adil dalam membagi keuntungan dan kerugian usaha. laba dan atau rugi usaha akan dibagi berdua antara pemilik modal dan peminjam modal sesuai kesepakatan yang disepakati bersama di awal transaksi pembiayaan sehingga diharapkan tidak ada pihak yang menzolimi pihak yang lain. salah satu bmt yang cukup menonjol dalam aktivias microfinance bagi umkm adalah bmt yaqawiyyu yang terletak di kecamatan jatinom, klaten, jawa tengah. bmt yaqqawiyyu merupakan lembaga keuangan yang didirikan oleh pimpinan cabang muhammadiyah kecamatan jatinom, klaten, jawa tengah. bmt yang didirikan sejak tahun 1996 ini mampu memberikan nilai positif bagi perkembangan perekonomian di daerah jatinom dan sekitarnya. bmt yaqawiyyu memiliki jumlah nasabah berjumlah di atas 1000 orang menegaskan tingkat kepercayaan masyarakat terhadap bmt ini. komitmen terhadap microfinance lewat bantuan konsultasi usaha, pemberian pinjaman dengan metode kredit yang variatif dan tidak hanya mengandalkan sistem simpan pinjam konvensional jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 1, april 2013: 35-43 38 seperti layaknya bank umum juga memberikan nilai eksklusif sekaligus personal bagi hampir setiap nasabahnya. keistimewaan yang lain dari bmt yaqawiyyu terdapat pada kecepatan respon bagi keperluan nasabah serta layanan “jemput bola” yang memudahkan nasabah untuk melakukan berbagai transaksi keuangan yang dibutuhkan. beberapa studi internasional yang telah dilakukan mampu menunjukkan adanya kaitan erat antara keberadaan lembaga keuangan mikro atau disebut juga micro finance institution (mfi), yang dalam kasus ini diwakili bmt, terhadap kesejahteraan masyarakat, pertumbuhan umkm atau small and medium enterprises (sme) dan kenaikan pendapatan masyarakat. oni, paiko dan ormin (2012) telah melakukan studi di nigeria yang menunjukkan bahwa lembaga keuangan mikro mampu mendukung peningkatan semangat enterpreneur dan mampu menjaga pertumbuhan umkm secara berkelanjutan yang selanjutnya mampu mendukung pertumbuhan ekonomi dalam tingkatan nasional. meskipun begitu masih tetap ada kendala antara mfi dan sme yaitu tentang prosedur yang rumit dalam pengajuan kredit terutama keberadaan jaminan dan suku bunga yang tinggi. berbeda halnya dengan naveen k shetty (2008) dalam jurnalnya, microfinance; for micro enterprise development: an inquiry for a new paradigm menunjukkan bahwa kegagalan metode microfinance yang hanya sekedar memberi kredit saja tanpa adanya follow up lanjutan. shetty menyarankan adanya bantuan finansial sekaligus non finansial bagi masyarakat miskin yang disebut dengan pendekatan maksimalis. kata maksimalis bermaksud menggunakan kedua pendekatan finansial dan non finasial sekaligus sehingga diharapkan lebih maksimal membantu keberlanjutan usaha umkm dan bagi masyarakat miskin. adapun tujuan dari dilakukannya studi ini untuk menjelaskan kedudukan-kedudukan variabel yang akan diteliti serta hubungan antara satu variabel dengan variabel yang lain atau dengan kata lain untuk melihat hubungan variabel independen ketersediaan produk pembiayaan, produk tabungan dan eds terhadap variabel dependen yaitu pertumbuhan umkm. metode penelitian jenis dan sumber data data yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah data primer dan data sekunder. studi ini dilakukan di kecamatan jatinom kabupaten klaten provinsi jawa tengah. karena keterbatasan waktu dan biaya maka pengumpulan data primer dilakukan dengan memberikan kuesioner dan atau sekaligus wawancara pada 113 nasabah bmt yaqawiyyu kecamatan jatinom. sementara untuk mendukung data primer diperlukan data sekunder yang didapatkan dari beberapa instansi seperti badan pusat statistik (bps) dan lain-lain. objek dalam studi ini adalah nasabah bmt yaqawiyyu yang terletak di kecamatan jatinom kabupaten klaten provinsi jawa tengah. analisis data teknik pengumulan data yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah dengan kuisoner dan wawancara. skor (nilai) dari jawaban responden diberikan dengan lima alternatif pilihan yaitu, sangat setuju (ss) dengan skor 5, setuju (s) dengan skor 4, netral (n) dengan skor 3, tidak setuju (ts) dengan skor 2, sangat tidak setuju (sts) dengan skor 1. tingkat pengukuran adalah ordinal, di mana angka-angka yang diberikan mengandung pengertian tingkatan. sedangkan teknik pengumpulan data dengan wawancara dilakukan dengan dua metode. metode pertama adalah wawancara yang dilakukan untuk mengisi kuesioner. nasabah bmt banyak yang berasal dari pedagang atau pengusaha kecil sehingga kadang aktivitas pengisian kuesioner mengalami kendala berupa ketidakmampuan dalam memahami butir-butir kuesioner. ketika terjadi kesulitan ini, maka teknik wawancara harus dilakukan. metode wawancara yang kedua sengaja dikhususkan untuk mendapatkan data secara mendalam sebagai data kualitatif pendukung dari data kuantitatif kuesioner pelaksanaan wawancara ini dilakukan secara terstruktur dengan jawaban yang bersifat terbuka kepada responden. wawancara dilakukan secara random terhadap pengusaha tingkat mikro maupun pengusaha tingkat kecil hingga pengusaha tingkat menengah dengan harapan mampu bagaimana peran lembaga keuangan ... (herjuna mai hatmaka) 39 memberikan gambaran riil kondisi ekonomi responden secara umum. variabel dependen dari studi ini adalah pertumbuhan umkm m (y), yaitu nilai yang digambarkan dari tingkat kenaikan kesejahteraan peminjam dana, baik itu diukur dari pendapatan, jumlah tabungan dan kelancaran pengembalian pinjaman. sementara variabel independen yang digunakan ada tiga yaitu diantaranya; 1) ketersediaan produk pembiayaan (x1); 2) ketersediaan tabungan (x2); 3) ketersediaan enterprise development services (x3), pelatihan usaha dan bantuan usaha atau enterprise development services (eds) atau business development services) (x3). metode yang digunakan bmt cukup fleksibel disesuaikan dengan budaya masyarakat sekaligus penyesuaian dengan segmen umkm yang disasar sehingga bentuk pelayanan ini cukup beragam. uji kualitas data uji validitas. berdasarkan uji validitas yang dilakukan, hasil studi dikatakan valid bila terdapat kesamaan antara data yang terkumpul dengan data yang sesungguhnya terjadi pada objek yang diteliti (ghozali, 2002:135). uji validitas dilakukan dengan pearson product moment yang digunakan untuk menghitung nilai korelasi antar masing-masing skor butir jawaban dengan skor total dan butir jawaban dengan taraf signifikasi 5%. jika r hitung > r tabel, maka h0 ditolak yang artinya variabel tersebut valid tetapi sebaliknya jika r hitung < r tabel maka h0 diterima yang artinya variabel tidak valid. uji validitas menggunakan rumus sebagai berikut: (umar, 2003). uji reliabilitas. hasil studi dikatakan reliabel bila terdapat kesamaan data dalam waktu yang berbeda. butir pertanyaan yang diuji reliabilitasnya adalah butir-butir yang lolos dalam pengujian validitas. uji reliabilitas menggunakan metode pengujian alpha cronbach. semakin besar nilai alpha yang dihasilkan berarti butir-butir pertanyaan dalam quesioner semakin reliabel. adapun reliabilitas dalam studi ini diuji dengan menggunakan uji cronbach alpha dengan ketentuan apabila nilai cronbach alpha > 0,6, instrumen pengukuran dikatakan reliabel (ghozali, 2002). analisis regresi linier dalam analisa regresi, pola hubungan antar variabel diekspresikan dalam sebuah persamaan regresi yang diduga berdasar data sampel. untuk menduga pengaruh variabel kemudahan pembiayaan, adanya tempat menabung, adanya business development services yang disediakan oleh bmt bagi pertumbuhan umkm, dapat dinyatakan sebagai berikut: y = f (x1, x2, x3) 1) di mana: y adalah variabel pertumbuhan umkm; x1 adalah variabel ketersediaan produk pembiayaan; x2 adalah ketersediaan tabungan; x3 adalah business development services untuk kemudian dilakukan regresi berganda dengan ordinary least square (ols) menjadi: y = β0 + β1x1 + β2x2 + β3x3 + e 2) dengan keterangan variabel: β0 adalah: konstanta persamaan pertumbuhan umkm; β1, β2, β3 adalah koefisien masing-masing variabel independen; dan e adalah error term uji asumsi klasik uji multikolinearitas. pengujian terhadap ada tidaknya multikolinearitas dilakukan dengan uji variance inflation factor (gujarati, 2003). jika suatu variabel memiliki vif < 10, maka variabel bebas tersebut tidak memiliki multikolinearitas denga variabel bebas yang lain. uji heteroskedastisitas. ada beberapa cara untuk melihat perilaku error term yaitu dengan melihat grafik scatterplot yaitu grafik nilai y disekitar garis regresi linear. jika ada pola tertentu dan teratur dari titik-titik yang ada maka dikatakan model mengalami heteroskedastisitas. jika pola titik tidak berbentuk, maka model tidak mengalami heteroskedastisitas. uji statistik uji f. dilakukan untuk menguji pengaruh seluruh variabel independen berpengarih terhadap variabel dependennya secara serentak. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 1, april 2013: 35-43 40 kriteria uji yang digunakan: 1) menentukan formulasi hipotesis h0 : β1 = β2 = β3 = 0 (variabel independen tidak mempengaruhi variabel dependen secara serentak) ha : β1 ≠ β2 ≠ β3 ≠β4 ≠ 0 (variabel independen mempengaruhi variabel dependen secara serentak) 2) menentukan level of significance α 3) kesimpulan, jika nilai f hitung > f tabel, maka h0 ditolak. hal ini menyatakan bahwa semua variabel independen yang diteliti secara bersama-sama mempunyai pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap varabel y sedangkan jika f hitung < f tabel maka h0 diterima sehingga semua variabel independen yang diteliti secara bersama-sama tidak memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan secara individula terhadap variabel dependen. uji t. untuk menguji variabel secara individual dilaukan uji t. uji t ini juga memberikan informasi tentang signifikasi koefisien regresi tiap variabel. langkah uji hipotesisnya: 1) menentukan formulasi hipotesis h0: βn = 0 (masing-masing variabel x tidak memiliki pengaruh signifikan terhadap variabel y) ha : βn ≠ 0 (masing-masing variabel x secara individu memberi pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap variabel y) 2) menentukan level of significance α 3) kesimpulan, jika nilai t hitung > t tabel, maka h0 ditolak. hal ini menyatakan bahwa variabel yang diteliti mempunyai pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap varabel y sedangkan jika t hitung < t tabel maka h0 diterima sehingga variabel independen yang diteliti tidak memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan secara individu terhadap variabel dependen. hasil dan pembahasan dalam studi tentang manfaat lembaga bmt bagi pertumbuhan umkm di jatinom, klaten, jawa tengah digunakan uji validitas dan uji reliabilitas. uji validitas dalam studi ini digunakan untuk menguji pertanyaan yang digunakan pada kuisoner apakah dapat mengukur dengan cermat atau tidak yang hendak diukur. setelah dilakukan pengujian validitas pada variabel pertumbuhan umkm dinyatakan variabel dependen (y) valid dan dinyatakan mampu dalam mengukur dengan pasti tingkat pertumbuhan umkm. sementara hasil uji validitas pada variabel independen yaitu ketersediaan produk pembiayaan, ketersediaan tabungan dan enterprise development services (eds) terhadap pertumbuhan umkm dinyatakan valid karena skor item berkorelasi dengan skor total baik dari nilai sig < 0,05 sekaligus dari rhitung > rtabel (0,361). sementara untuk uji reliabilitas dilakukan dengan menggunakan nilai cronbach alpha. kalkulasi nilai cronbach alpha dari tiap variabel menggunakan bantuan program spss 20 dan batas kritis nilai alpha untuk mengidentifikasikan kuesioner yang reliable adalah 0,60, jadi nilai cronbach alpha harus lebih besar dari 0,60. nilai tersebut merupakan indikator bahwa kuesioner adalah reliable/handal. nilai cronbach alpha atau koefisien alpha hasil dari perhitungan pretest menunjukkan bahwa semua variabel mempunyai nilai cronbach alpha lebih dari 0,6 sehingga kuesioner dinyatakan reliabel untuk dipakai dalam studi. uji multikolinearitas bertujuan untuk menguji apakah model regresi ditemukan adanya korelasi antarvariabel bebas. hasil pengujian multikolinearitas pada responden menunjukkan bahwa tidak terjadi multikolinearitas dalam model regresi karena nilai vif selalu lebih besar dari 10. uji heteroskedastisitas bertujuan untuk menguji apakah dalam model regresi terjadi ketidaksamaan variance dan residual dari satu pengamatan ke pengamatan yang lain. adapun hasil uji heteroskedastisitas dengan metode park menunjukkan bahwa ho diterima dan model studi dinyatakan bebas dari heteroskedastisitas. analisa regresi linear uji regresi linear berganda digunakan untuk mengetahui hubungan antar variabel dependen dan independen. bentuk persamaan regresi linier berganda dalam studi ini adalah: y = c + b1x1 + b2x2 + b3x3 + e 3) bagaimana peran lembaga keuangan ... (herjuna mai hatmaka) 41 dengan variabel y adalah tingkat pertumbuhan usaha kecil dan menengah, x1 adalah ketersediaan produk pembiayaan, x2 adalah variabel ketersediaan tabungan dan x3 adalah variabel enterprise development services (eds). adapun hasil uji regresi linier berganda pada studi ini disajikan dalam tabel 3. hasil uji regresi menunjukkan bahwa semua variabel bebas signifikan pada α =10% (0,1) dan dari hasil regresi diperoleh persamaan sebagai berikut: y = 0,180 + 0,305 x1 + 0,478 x2 + 0,151 x3 + e 4) nilai koefisien variabel ketersediaan produk pembiayaan (x1) adalah 0,305. koefisien variabel x1 bernilai positif maka ketersediaan pembiayaan berpengaruh positif terhadap pertumbuhan umkm (y) di jatinom, klaten. koefisien variabel ketersediaan tabungan (x2) adalah 0,478 berarti ketersediaan tabungan berpengaruh positif terhadap pertumbuhan umkm (y). nilai koefisien variabel enterprise development services (x3) adalah 0,151 sehingga variabel enterprise development services berpengaruh positif terhadap pertumbuhan umk (y). adanya layanan pembiayaan atau lebih populer dikenal dengan kredit terbukti memberikan manfaat bagi umkm. kebutuhan akan pembiayaan lebih cenderung dijadikan tambahan modal baik itu berupa kebutuhan cash flow, menambah stok barang usaha, modal memperbesar usaha, dan menambah alat atau fasilitas pendukung usaha. seiring dengan kegunaan yang banyak tersebut maka tidak mengherankan ketika keberadaan pembiayaan sangat mendukung kemajuan umkm. hasil yang sedikit mengejutkan adalah ternyata reponden beranggapan bahwa tabungan memberikan nilai positif bagi pertumbuhan usaha umkm. nasabah bmt ternyata sangat peduli terhadap tabungan, sebagian besar dari mereka menjadikan tabungan sebagai kebiasaan untuk hidup lebih teratur dalam pengelolaan uang, untuk menjaga kelangsungan usaha, serta menjaga aliran modal lebih teratur dan terjaga. pihak bmt memiliki andil besar dalam membiasakan masyarakat untuk menabung. marketing bmt mampu mendidik masyarakat untuk menyisihkan penghasilan mereka dalam wujud tabungan, masyarakat juga dimudahkan karena bmt mendatangi langsung tiap nasabah di hampir setiap hari kerja untuk melayani setiap kebutuhan nasabah dan juga calon nasabah. hasil studi ini menunjukkan bahwa eds mampu memberikan manfaat positif bagi nasabah. pemberian bantuan usaha dengan berbagai bentuk sesuai dengan kebutuhan nasabah tentu lebih mengena pada permasalahan usaha yang dihadapi setiap nasabah sehingga manfaatnya pun juga akan lebih mudah dirasakan oleh nasabah. meskipun begitu, keterbatasan dari pihak bmt dalam memberikan segala bantuan bagi nasabah umkm tetap akan menjadi kendala penerapan eds yang lebih merata pada semua nasabah umkm. pengujian terhadap uji statistik f diperoleh nilai fhitung sebesar 22,419 dan tingkat probabilitas sebesar 0,000. dengan taraf signifikansi 95 % (α = 5 %) dan derajat kebebasan (df2 = n k = 113 4 = 109), maka diperoleh nilai f tabel sebesar 2,6802. artinya ada pengaruh yang signifikan antara variabel independen terhadap variabel dependen. tabel 3. hasil uji regresi linier variabel b t hitung sig kesimpulan konstanta 0,180 0,390 0,697 pembiayaan (x1) 0,305 3,312 0,001 signifikan pada α 1% tabungan (x2) 0,478 4,599 0,000 signifikan pada α 1% eds (x3) 0,151 1,777 0,078 signifikan pada α 10% f hitung 22,419 sig f 0,000 r square 0,365 pertumbuhan umkm (y) varibel dependen jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 1, april 2013: 35-43 42 koefisien determinasi (r2) berguna untuk mengukur kemampuan model dalam menerangkan variabel independent. nilai adjust r square adalah sebesar 0,382, hal ini menunjukkan 38,2 persen variasi pertumbuhan umkm di jatinom, klaten, jawa tengah dijelaskan oleh variasi dari variabel bebas ketersediaan pembiayaan, ketersediaan tabungan dan eds. sedangkan sisanya 61,8 persen dijelaskan oleh variabel lainnya di luar model penelitian ini. studi ini dilakukan untuk mengetahui seberapa besar manfaat keberadaan produk dan layanan bmt bagi kemajuan usaha nasabahnya. seperti kita sudah ketahui, produk dan layanan bmt cukup beragam seperti berbagai macam tabungan, pembiayaan, layanan pembayaran, layanan pengurusan zakat, infaq, shodaqah, layanan pendampingan dan konsultasi usaha, dan pemberian bantuan hibah. produk dan layanan bmt akan semakin fleksibel sesuai dengan permintaan pasar yang dihadapi. dalam studi ini bmt yaqawiyyu berposisi pada lembaga keuangan yang memberikan bantuan finansial yang bekerjasama dengan majelis ekonomi muhammadiyah cabang jatinom untuk mendukung sisi bantuan non finansial (eds) oleh bmt yaqawiyyu dalam satu paket bantuan finansial integrated approach of microfinance yang terdiri dari gabungan bantuan finansial dan non finansial (eds). kerjasama ini memberikan tambahan pengetahuan, skill dan bantuan usaha bagi umkm yang menjadi nasabah bmt yaqawiyyu. nilai tambah juga didapatkan oleh bmt yaqawiyyu berupa naiknya jumlah pembiayaan, faktor kenaikan loyalitas dan faktor promosi, serta faktor yang bersifat jangka panjang seperti kemungkinan naiknya jumlah bagi hasil seiring dengan semakin besarnya cakupan usaha nasabah. simpulan berdasarkan hasil studi di atas dapat disimpulkan bahwa: pertama, keberadaan produk pembiayaan yang disediakan oleh bmt yaqawiyyu mampu memberikan manfaat yang positif dan signifikan bagi pertumbuhan umkm nasabahnya. variabel ketersediaan produk pembiayaan menempati rangking kedua setelah variabel tabungan. responden lebih tidak mengandalkan pembiayaan melebihi tabungan untuk mendukung usaha mereka; kedua, keberadaan produk tabungan yang disediakan oleh bmt yaqawiyyu mampu memberikan manfaat yang positif dan signifikan bagi pertumbuhan umkm nasabahnya. di antara ketiga variabel independen yang diteliti, tabungan merupakan variabel yang dianggap paling penting bagi rata-rata responden; ketiga, keberadaan enterprise development services yang disediakan oleh bmt yaqawiyyu mampu memberikan manfaat yang positif dan signifikan bagi pertumbuhan umkm nasabahnya. walaupun menempati peringkat ketiga dibanding dengan variabel independen lain, eds masih dianggap memberikan peran positif bagi umkm. keterbatasan tenaga ahli dan beragamnya kebutuhan bentuk eds oleh nasabah bmt menjadikan eds belum bisa maksimal memenuhi harapan responden. eds merupakan layanan nonfinansial yang mempunyai unsur sosial sehingga hanya bmt yang memiliki komitmen sosial yang bersedia melakukannya; keempat, pembiayaan atau kredit merupakan cara bmt atau bank umum untuk memperoleh laba namun produk pembiayaan bagi nasabah bukanlah prioritas tertinggi untuk menunjang usaha sehingga bmt perlu juga mengembangkan variasi lain produk atau layanan sebagai alternatif lain untuk memperoleh laba; kelima, urutan strategi marketing bmt sesuai dengan prioritas yang dipilih oleh sampel nasabahnya. menabung adalah produk bmt yang paling dianggap penting bagi responden sehingga dapat dikatakan bahwa masyarakat bergabung dengan bmt karena motif menabung. variasi tabungan yang lebih banyak dan disesuaikan dengan kebutuhan nasabah akan membuka peluang memperoleh dana pihak ketiga yang lebih besar; keenam, bmt perlu mempertimbangkan memberi layanan yang bersifat non finansial atau disebut eds. nasabah yang berprofesi sebagai pengusaha menyatakan bahwa eds memberikan dampak positif bagi usaha yang dijalankannya. bagi pihak bmt, eds bisa dilakukan oleh bmt sendiri atau dengan cara kerjasama dengan lembaga sosial yang lebih kompeten; ketujuh, bmt menyediakan juga layanan eds yang bertujuan memberikan kemudahan bagi nasabah dari sisi non finansial. ketika bmt membebagaimana peran lembaga keuangan ... (herjuna mai hatmaka) 43 rikan trainng usaha atau pendampingan usaha atau konsultasi usaha dan sejenisnya, konsumen hendaklah mampu memaksimalkan layanan tersebut untuk menambah pengetahuan, keterampilan dan jaringan usaha; kedelapan, masyarakat dapat memilih bmt dibanding bank umum dengan pertimbangan bahwa bmt memilik fleksibilitas dalam hampir segala produk dan layanan. daftar pustaka akram, m. (2011). the role of microfinance in uplifting income level: a study of district okara – pakistan. interdiciplinary journal of contemporary research in business vol 2 march 2011. badan pusat statistik. (2008). hasil sensus ekonomi 2006, perusahaan menengah dan besar. jakarta: badan pusat statistik. badan statistik indonesia. (2013). jumlah dan persentase penduduk miskin, garis kemiskinan, indeks kedalaman kemisinan (p1), dan indeks keparahan kemiskinan (p2) menurut provinsi, http://www.bps.go.id/tab_sub/view.php ? tabel=1&id_subyek=23&notab=1 diakses tanggal 29-1-2013 05:40 am. badan pusat statistik indonesia. (2013). survei industri mikro dan kecil 2013; profil industri mikro dan kecil 2013. jakarta: badan pusat statistik. badan pusat statistik kabupaten. (2012). kecamatan jatinom dalam angka tahun 2012. klaten: badan pusat statistik: kabupaten klaten. badan pusat statistik kabupaten. (2012). klaten dalam angka tahun 2012. klaten: badan pusat statistik kabupaten klaten. basargekar, p. (2009). economic empowerment through microfinance, an assessment of csr activity run by forbes marshall ltd: india. ghozali,imam. (2002). aplikasi analisis multi variat dengan program spss. semarang: badan penerbit universitas diponegoro. gujarati, damodar. (2003). ekonometri dasar. terjemahan: sumarno zain. jakarta: erlangga. hasan, s. (2013). pidato menteri koperasi dan usaha kecil menengah syarif hasan pada pertemuan micro-multinational, smes go global pada tanggal 5 september 2013 di nusa dua bali. oni, e.o. (2012). assessment of the contribution of micro finance institutions (mfis) to sustainable growth of small and medium enterprises (smes) in nigeria”. interdisciplinary journal of contemporary research in business voll 3 no 9. peraturan menteri keuangan nomor 22/ pmk.05/2010, fasilitas penjaminan kredit usaha rakyat. shetty, n. k. (2008). microfinance; for micro enterprise development: an inquiry for a new paradigm. cfai journal of financial economics, vol. vi, no. 1, 2008. sofwan, a. (2012). peranan kredit usaha rakyat terhadap pengembangan umk di kecamatan gebang kabupaten langkat (studi kasus: bank bri kecamatan gebang). skripsi. medan: program studi ekonomi pembangunan universitas sumatera utara. zainal, m.y. (2010). peran koperasi bmt amanah madina dalam pengembangan usaha kecil di desa ngeni kecamatan waru-sidoarjo. skripsi. jawa timur: fakultas ilmu sosial dan ilmu politik universitas pembangunan nasional “veteran”. jesp | jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan article type: research paper factor analysis of coal mining industry activities in the air sebayur village communities diah setyawati dewanti* and rizki novitasari abstract: this research aims to analyze the economic impact of environment to air sebayur communities on coal mining industry. this paper is use primary data, consist of 100 respondents as the communities of air sebayur village, who lived in the edge of the road to coal mining industry. the data collection applied the nonprobability sampling methods which is purposive sampling based on the location of the house. factor analysis applied as to achieve the aim of this research. through factor analysis, this paper could define the economic impacts on the environment caused by the mining coal activities. this paper discovers two (2) main factors which formed by 5 significant variables. the main factors are environments factors and health factors. environments factors consists of variables on compensating cost by the dust, frequency of sweeping the floor and the frequency of sweeping on balcony. health factors define into variables of health cost and the type of illness of communities who lived in the edge of the road to coal mining industry. keywords: factor analysis; coal mining; environmental factor; health factor. jel classification: q51 introduction mining development caused many several positive and negative impacts to communities and environments. it also effects indirect economic (hresc, riley, & harris, 2018) or otherwise. impacts in health caused by the flow-on production effects from mining activities include poorer physical condition (hossain, gorman, chapelle, mann, saal, & penton, 2013) including distress induced caused by the environmental change (albrecht, sartore, connor, higginbotham, freeman, kelly, stain, tonna, & pollard, 2007). negative impacts on coal mining’s has spurred in significants to several literatures which define various life impacts in broadly (li, stoeckl, king, & gyuris, 2018). indonesia is one of the largest coal producers and exporters in the world. based on the information provided by the indonesian ministry of energy and mineral resources, indonesia's coal reserves are estimated to be affiliation: universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta, yogyakarta. indonesia. *correspondence: ddewanti@umy.ac.id this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.20.2.5027 citation: dewanti, d. s., & novitasari, r. (2019). factor analysis of coal mining industry activities in the air sebayur village communities. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 20(2), 232-239. article history received: 9 august 2019 accepted: 26 october 2019 mailto:ddewanti@umy.ac.id http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/6867 dewanti & novitasari factor analysis of coal mining industry activities in the air sebayur village communities jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 233 depleted in approximately 83 years, if the current production levels continue. it brings benefit to the country, meanwhile, several impacts have been received by the communities surround it. one previous research has been defined in tenggarong, kutai kertanegara. in this study describe the impact of the existing of coal mining through socioeconomics in loa ipuh darat society. migration, intensification of the social relationship among society, include the prostitution existing caused by the coal mining in tenggarong. based on correlation analysis through kendall tau-b, income and the length of education were the main factors of the existing perception for the impact of coal mining (apriyanto & harini, 2011). north bengkulu district is the center for coal production and sales for bengkulu province. it shows that the contribution of north bengkulu district to the production and sale of coal cannot be considered small, because among the ten districts in bengkulu province which has the most significant production figures is the bengkulu district. related to the existing coal production figures, there are several mines in the sub-district of north bengkulu district. one of them is air sebayur village. air sebayur village itself is a village located in pinang raya sub-district. this village has an area of 6,842 km2 with a total of 420 households (data from the office of air sebayur village). in 1994, mining was first opened in the village of air sebayur by pt. petrosea with a mining business license (iup/ izin usaha pertambangan) that did not last long. then in the following year, another company opened a coal mine in air sebayur village which exist until now. coal mining activities that are still active today, namely by pt. dinamika selaras jaya and partnered with pt. aak and pt. bkm to work together as subcontractors. the mining has expanded from air sebayur village to lembah duri village in pinang raya sub-district. however, the exit road access to the port still passes through the air sebayur village. coal mining activities that began in 1994, until now are using the road access of air sebayur village, which is still coral and dusty. because it is still active to access the road from the mine to the national road, the company has not paved the road. residents who live on the side of the road must bear the dust and noise of the passing trucks. however, the existence of a mine is not solely an activity that is only to damage the environment. the company also follows the regulations printed in the constitution on coal minerals. although these effects cannot be avoided, they can be minimized. factor analysis was chosen in this study because the variables are contained in the interval scale research. the objective is to classify the data into groups according to the interrelationship between variables. in the research application, factor analysis could be done to determine the grouping of individuals according to their characteristics, as well as to test the construct validity. research method this study aims to determine the impact of coal mining industry activities in air sebayur village. the research location was chosen purposively because it was based on facts that occurred in the village. in this study, the type of data used was based on the source of the dewanti & novitasari factor analysis of coal mining industry activities in the air sebayur village communities jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 234 data obtained, namely primary data and secondary data. primary data was the data obtained from direct interviews with respondents, namely the people who lived in the air sebayur village using a questionnaire while the secondary data used in this study was from the data of the air sebayur village office. in determining the sampling method, researchers used the non-probability sampling method, namely purposive sampling. purposive sampling is a sampling technique, deliberately designating people who are considered capable of providing the necessary data needs with specific considerations. researchers used the slovin method with a significance level of 10% for 100 households lived in the area impacted to the coal mining activities. result and discussion the results of the research from the data taken from the distribution of questionnaires to 100 respondents who have been tested are as follows: 1. factor analysis test a. kaiser meyer oikin (kmo) test and bartlett's test after forming the correlation matrix, then the kaiser meyer oikin (kmo) test and bartlett's test were done. the following is the result of the data that have been tested using the kmo test and bartlett's test. based on table 1, the kmo value is 0.570, meaning that the value of kmo is greater than 0.5, then ho is accepted so that the data are feasible for factor analysis. bartlett's test of on the chi-square value of 72.211, the value is already significant 0.000 less than the real level (α) 0.05. it means that there is a correlation on each variable. therefore, the analysis using kmo (kaiser meyer oikin) test and bartlett’s test define the correlation on each variable. further analysis concerning the prediction and analysis capabilities, the msa (measure of sampling adequacy) need to be carried out. test results of msa variables is x1 = 0.815, x2 = 0.521, x3 = 0.599, x4 = 0.570 and x5 = 0.510. those were above the 0.5 which indicated all of the variables could be predicted and further analyzed. table 1 kmo and bartlett’s test results initial extraction km 1.000 .603 jp 1.000 .981 mr 1.000 .810 tr 1.000 .851 log_bk 1.000 .980 dewanti & novitasari factor analysis of coal mining industry activities in the air sebayur village communities jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 235 performing factor extractions table 2 communalities results factor extraction aims to determine the number of factors formed from the existing data. the following is the data generated through the spss program, as follows table 2. based on table 2 communalities, the jp variable has a value of 0.981. it define 98.1% of the variance from the variables has a strong relationship with the factors formed. likewise, for other variables, the smaller value of communalities means the weaker relationship with the factors formed. in the previous research by kolhe and khot (2015), coal mining activities impacted to the environments, such as area utilization, waste management, pollution (water and air), noises and thermal. therefore, compare to previous research, this variables were able to use to develop the further research. b. performing factor rotations extraction method: principal component analysis in the total variance explained table 3, it produces a factor in which the number is less than the number of variables processed. eigenvalues indicate the amount of variation related to a factor. factors that have an eigenvalue of more than or equal to one will be retained, and factors that have an eigenvalue of less than one will not be included in the model because a variable which the value is less than one is not better than the original variable. then the percentage variance is the number of factors is taken and determined based on the cumulative amount of variation that has been achieved. if the cumulative value of the percentage of variance is sufficient (more than half of the original variance of all variables), then the factor extraction can be stopped. from the above results, it can be obtained a simpler factor structure, namely obtaining two factors formed from five variables entered. each factor was obtained with an eigenvalue> 1. eigen factor 1 was 2,439 with variance (48,787%), and the eigen factor 2 was 1,786 with variance (35,729%). table 3 total of variance explained components initial eigenvalues total % of variance cumulative % km 2.439 47.787 48.787 jp 1.789 35.729 84.516 mr .540 10.807 95.323 tr .215 4.303 99.626 log_bk .019 .0374 100.000 kaiser-olkin measure of sampling adequacy 0.570 bartlett’s test of sphericity approx. chi-square 72.211 df 10 sig. .000 dewanti & novitasari factor analysis of coal mining industry activities in the air sebayur village communities jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 236 table 4 rotated component matrix components components 1 2 km .740 -.236 jp -.084 .987 mr .879 -.197 tr .899 .208 log_bk -.087 .986 extraction method: principal component analysis rotation method: varimax with kaiser normalization based on table 4, it can be seen that for the dust compensation cost variable (km), the correlation between the dust compensation cost variable with a factor of 1 is 0.740 and a factor of 2 is -0.236. it can be said that the dust compensation cost variable is included in factor 1, because the correlation is highest among other factors, likewise, for the loading factor for other variables. after rotation and two factors are formed, then the name of the factor was given. the naming of these factors was depended on the researchers and could represent the variables. 1) factor 1 consists of variable compensation costs, sweeping the house and sweeping the porch of the house. it was given a name as the environmental factor. 2) factor 2 consists of variables of disease types and health costs. it was given a name as the health factor. the impact of environment on coal mining is in to the public health factor. it is effect to the water and air pollution which cause the negative impact to communities. the damage of flora and fauna has also impacted by the pollution caused by the coal mining, likewise coal mining located in east kutai regency, indonesia. efforts as to resolve this problem is one of them is to watering the road and monitoring in to the waste disposal (fatmawati, 2018). in the other study regarding social impact in gold mining to the index of society perception concerning mining activity in huga bargot, north sumatera. the gold mining activity was using the local wisdom approach by using bamboo leaf in the process of segregation among gold ore and other dust. this is part as to keep the local wisdom include keeping the preservation of the forest (hasibuan, 2015). to carried out the company or industry, job satisfaction from intrinsic and extrinsic level are needed to be measured. the impact as the extrinsic job satisfaction in the company or industry is define by the external environment from the community surrounding it (hussain, thalib, & shah, 2014). therefore, factors 1 and factors 2 were supported as the extrinsic job satisfaction for the coal mining located in this area. 2. test of replacement cost analysis replacement cost which must be incurred by the coal mining industry for the people of air sebayur village was due to the coal mining industry activities. the replacement cost information concerned: (1) compensation costs, and (2) health costs. dewanti & novitasari factor analysis of coal mining industry activities in the air sebayur village communities jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 237 the replacement costs for each community are as follows: = ∑ compensation costs + health costs = rp. 6,000,000.00 + rp. 2,590,000.00 = rp.8,590,000.00 the final replacement cost for each of community is rp 8,590,000 or equal to $ 596.53 in each year. this number were smaller compare to the previous study. based on fachlevi, putri, and simanjuntak (2015), the multiplier effect from the coal mining activity was 1.14 or the coal mining activity could give economic impact in the local area. in economic measurement, the loss has been calculated as much as idr 1,972,833,514 or equal to $ 138,932. the multiplier effect was 1.14 multiple from the loss. the replacement cost analysis has also integrated into the compensation as the cost from the company from the impacts of it activities. conclusion based on the results of research and data analysis, it can be concluded that there are two factors which were formed from five variables. these factors are environmenatal factors named as the representatives of the factors, as the dust compensation, sweeping the house, and the porch of the house. in this regard, from previous studies according to katoria (2013), during the mine operation, it will have pollution impacts (air, water, noise, and vibration) as well as health impacts and mine closure activities as far as the sudden economic halt and land contamination. in the other industries, choudhary and islam (2017) define environmental impact assessment (eia) with systematic and applicable standards methods for the analysis of water, air and noise parameters. ivanova, rolfe, lockie, and timmer (2007) strengthen the statements as defining the relationship symbiotics between the mining industries activities to the communities impacts on economics and social relationships. it can be the negative consequences from the broad mining operations. hereafter, the results of the study found a new variable that is the cost of dust compensation obtained by the community from the company. it was due to the coal mining industry activities and from the dust causes the houses and terraces to becoming dirty so that people need to sweep the houses and terraces more often than usual because the dust is very thick. it turns out that sweeping the house and porch of the house can be a new variable. these three variables have not been found in previous studies. lockie, franettovich, petkova-timmer, rolfe, and ivanova (2009) define the social impact assessment through resource community cycle. local human development to be employed by coal mining has been the main focus impact to increase the social and human capital surround the coal mining environment. patnaik (2017) stated industrialization has been develop the economic welfare, therefore, coal mining should bring positive impact rather than negative. the eco-industry should be implemented into the green environment with sustainable development. in this study, limitation has been appear since it is only focus on the natural environmental and health factor impact. moreover, tukker and jansen (2006) define the environment impact is the “face” of the economic activity. an industry need to develop the product integration policy to reduce the life cycle of environmental impact. dewanti & novitasari factor analysis of coal mining industry activities in the air sebayur village communities jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 238 the naming of factor two was to represent the variables of the health factor. the variables of health factors include the variable of health costs and types of disease. in this regard, according to juniah, dalimi, suparmoko, and moersidik (2013), it was found that there are various types of public health disorders and ari (acute respiratory infection) is the type of health disorder that is most experienced by the community. the health disturbance impact from the coal mining mostly related to the air pollution reccuring diseases due to the concentration of pollution in the environment. it can be captured by the dose response function (nayaks & chowdhury, 2018). the average external cost of public health per respondent living around the private coal mining is rp. 20,724.the results of the study of disturbances and public health costs arising as negative externalities of coal mining activities towards 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(2020). factors influencing the households’ adaptation under natural disaster risk in the coastal areas of giao thien, giao thuy, nam dinh, vietnam. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 21(1), 105-124. article history received: 22 january 2020 reviewed: 6 march 2020 16 april 2020 revised: 17 march 2020 19 april 2020 accepted: 21 april 2020 mailto:ntphong@vnua.edu.vn http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/8078 http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp phong, mai, & aditto factors influencing the households’ adaptation under natural disaster risk … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 106 on many areas of life (sales, 2009; roshanka & ruben, 2018). for example, the earthquake could affect human settlements by ash, lava eruptions, mudslides, floods, forest fires (warrick, 1980) or tropical storm can cause casualties and the destruction by wind, rain, storms and flooding in the mainland (bryant, 1993; hiwasaki, lunab, syamsidikc, shawd, 2014). according to the undp (2015), vietnam has 9 major natural disasters that it suffers from. they include hurricanes, tornados hail, surges, landslides, monsoon, cold air floods, floods, and storms (chaudhry & ruysschaert, 2007). damage caused by natural disasters every year in vietnam is extremely large (mcelwee, 2010). according to the committee for flood and storm control (2009), the total damage caused by natural disasters is estimated at 23,745 billion vnd, including storm damage of 16,078 billion vnd. in recent, natural disasters affected 39,881 households displaced. in 2009, there were 26,778 households displaced by natural disasters (including households affected by the storm). viet nam is extremely vulnerable to climate change impacts given its extensive coastline and river deltas, and highlands that have poor water retention capacity and are susceptible to severe erosion (nhu, thuy, wilderspin, & coulier, 2015). as a coastal area located in the low-lying red river delta, the province nam dinh is affected and exposed to the direct impacts of climate change such as sea-level rise, extreme weather phenomena, temperature and rainfall pattern change, and salinity intrusion. sea level rise changes the patterns of sea currents and sedimentation in coastal areas. additionally, the permanent inundation zone, lowland and coastal natural systems such as mangroves and other wetlands would be affected by the sea level rise and the associated changes in biophysical and chemical conditions. the area is prone to the coastal impacts of extreme weather phenomena. during the storm, high tides and waves caused landslides, broken segments, dikes, embankments, and culverts, as the result, several hectares of rice field was damaged. most of the huts on the clam farming areas in the district were washed away. high tides caused water levels to reach a height of 2.65 m, the highest tides within the last 40 years. extreme weather events, particularly typhoons, affect clam operations. storms accompanied by heavy rainfall lead to a sudden decrease in salinity, and if rainfall is large enough, clams will die because of excess levels of freshwater (sajise, ramirez, zamora, herbosa, agbon, & nguyen, (2017); adpc, 2003). the research makes new contribution to the literature: a summary of data used to multistage sampling method 95 households, which adapted to natural disasters; a brief review of various types and sources of data for adaptation of household to each disaster in the study area. the findings showed the risk of natural disasters affecting the livelihood of the local population are typhoons, floods, coastal erosion/ sea level rise, and saltwater intrusion. they had been using 6 solutions to cope with disaster risks. phong, mai, & aditto factors influencing the households’ adaptation under natural disaster risk … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 107 research method the qualitative research used in this study is the essence of human experiences, which is described by participants in the study. the study tries to get the understanding of experience in the adaptation with natural disaster risks used by households and what kind of the problems that households mostly confront marks phenomenology as a philosophy as well as method, and technique associated with the studying a small number of subjects. sometimes, the researcher uses owned experiences in order to understand those participants in the study (creswell, 2003; kleinbaum, kupper, muller, & nizam, 1998). the research used a multi-stage sampling design to survey households in giao thien, giao thuy, vietnam, how the household respond to risk towards typhoons, floods, coastal erosion/ sea level rise, and saltwater intrusion. the district has 21 communes and 2 municipalities, of which 10 villages along the coast. the sampling selected random 95 households from 10 villages in a coastal area in giao thien commune, giao thuy district, vietnam, who were then administered questionnaires. the secondary data was collected from the province, district and commune levels through natural condition reports, annual social-economic reports in 2018, damage reports, related documents from ngos and mass organizations working in the commune. after collecting data from various methods, the data were analyzed using stata 13 and excel 2013 statistical packages. to evaluate the factors affecting the decision of the households, we use logit model. in many practical applications, logit model is used in order to determine the factors that affect an individual's choice between lots of other options (greene, 2012; kleinbaum, kupper, muller, & nizam 1998). the decision to use these measures to respond to natural disasters including not respond to risk and respond to risk. the model of the form as follows: z z ii e e kyp + == 1 )( where yi is the dependent variable response to the decision of the household • yi = 0: if household does not respond to risks • yi = 1: if household responds to risks μy = μy (x1, x2, x3, x4, x5, x6, x7, x8) = β0 + β1x1 + β2x2 + β3x3 + β4x4 + β5x5 + β6x6 + β7x7 + β8x8 the random errors ei are usually assumed to be independent of each other and follow a normal distribution with mean 0 and variance are σ2. phong, mai, & aditto factors influencing the households’ adaptation under natural disaster risk … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 108 table 1 the definition variables of model logit no independent variables illuminate 1 formal institutions (fi) the number of organizations that family’s members engage 2 informal institutional (ii) the number of close friends 3 the number of labors in the household (lb) person 4 the age of the household's head or decisionmaker about coping in the family (ag) years 5 gender (g) dummy variables (0: male, 1: female) 6 the level of education (ed) dummy variables (0 = under high school and high school, 1 = higher than high school) 7 land use for agriculture (la) m2 8 income per year (ic) million vnd source: author, (2018); dazé, ambrose, and ehrhart (2009); osman-elasha, and sanjak (2008); care in vietnam. (2015); dabi, nyong, adepetu, ibemegbulem (2007); goulden, (2011). result and discussion 1. impacts of natural disaster risk on the households in the coastal areas in giao thien, giao thuy, nam dinh, vietnam the climate change took and caused strong fluctuations through extreme weather events, anomalies. the natural disaster situation in vietnam also happens more often, more complicated and caused serious consequences for people’s lives, especially poor people. according to a report on the global climate risk, 2010, published by the organization german watch, vietnam is a country ranked 4th in the world for damage caused by the impact of extreme climate events and forecasts for 30 years to vietnam will be the 13th of 170 countries and be belonging to a special group risk countries (undp, 2015). the world bank showed the type of disaster damage to people and the largest economy in vietnam, including storms and floods. besides drought is one of the natural disasters affecting large numbers of the population (unisdr, 2013). giao thien commune has an area of 7.88 km², 2752 households. the commune has 14 villages, of which 10 villages locate along the coast, namely 17, 19, 21, 22, 24, 25, 27, 28, 29, and 30. the commune has 1660 households locate along the coast. through the process of practical research, in giao thien, the types of natural disasters occur mainly: flooding, typhoon, coastal erosion/sea level rise, and saltwater intrusion. table 2 showed the distribution of households affected by the disaster risks in the study area. floods affect most of coastal households in giao thien, where water from the communal door runs through drainage canals to the sea, especially in the villages near the coast. during storm incidence, the water port is closed to prevent saltwater intrusion, but heavy rains cause incidences of more serious flooding. in villages in giao thien, a fraction phong, mai, & aditto factors influencing the households’ adaptation under natural disaster risk … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 109 table 2 distribution of affected households by commune in 2017 village no. of households % households affected by flooding % households affected by typhoon % households affected by coastal erosion/ sea level rise % households affected by saltwater intrusion 17 10 8.42 100 0 10.53 19 11 9.47 100 0 11.58 21 11 9.47 100 0 11.58 22 8 2.11 100 0 2.11 24 6 1.05 100 0 3.16 25 6 3.16 100 0 3.16 27 8 1.05 100 0 5.26 28 11 8.42 100 0 11.58 29 13 13.68 100 2.11 13.68 30 11 11.58 100 1.05 11.58 total 95 68.42 100 3.16 84.21 source: author, 2018 of the percentage of coastal households surveyed (1-3%) had been affected by the floods because the village was located in higher places, so they have less affected by rising water. typhoons affected all selected households surveyed, especially in 2012, when the typhoon was predicted incorrect. locals in the village were not well prepared to deal with it because it causes serious damage to the local population. coastal erosion is severe in giao thien because the commune is situated at the mouth of the red river. on the form, three families (3.16% of the total) in the sample reported that their fishpond dikes and local dikes eroded and collapsed. however, compared with other hazards, coastal erosion is most dramatically. the average of the surveyed households was affected unique 3.16%. saltwater intrusion caused serious problems for families living near the sea dike. in general, a high proportion of households surveyed in giao thien affected with 84.21%. every year, in winter, the rice fields are abandoned and no irrigation. water tables have dropped, this time, providing room for saltwater intrusion, groundwater and surface water can be used for the household. therefore, in giao thien commune, most of the households need to build a concrete water tank to conserve water for drinking and cooking throughout the year. also, water for washing and bath taken from contaminated surface water from nearby ponds and irrigation main channel. saltwater intrusion caused serious problems for the households in the village number 28, 29, and 30, which not only affects the water used for cooking and drinking but also impacts water for aquaculture soft drink. for aquaculture water becomes too salty, the fish have been observed to develop (yield decreasing) slowly, catching the red-eye problems, or die of increased salinity. impact from typhoons and flooding on households the frequency and value of household damage from typhoons and flooding in the selected sites are showed in table 3. phong, mai, & aditto factors influencing the households’ adaptation under natural disaster risk … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 110 table 3 mean value of household level damages from typhoons and flooding by commune in 2017 (unit: 1000vnđ, 1 usd = 23000 vnđ). village damage / loss to house loss in agricultural production loss in fishing income loss in aquaculture production other 17 6700 5400 4500 0 2000 19 5500 4900 4390 0 2100 21 7800 4300 5700 0 2000 22 5400 9200 24000 0 2500 24 4100 8000 30500 0 2400 25 2100 9300 21200 0 3100 27 3400 8100 32100 0 2100 28 6000 4200 0 31100 1500 29 6300 5000 0 24000 4000 30 6200 4900 0 35000 3500 mean 5653 5921 15250 29510 2546 source: author, 2018 damage / loss to house in giao thien communes, the surveyed households have experienced less loss compared to those in the other area. in the sample there were 95 households, experiencing loss to the house with the average loss of 5.65 million vnd. the shock was from destroyed roofs, kitchen, and frontier walls. some households were severely affected. notably, one household has damages amounting to more 50 million vnd because their roof is destroyed and unroofed. it can be seen that before and during the risk, preparation to cope with typhoons/floods were made by people in giao thien commune relatively better than those in another area, therefore, they experienced less damage/loss to their houses after the disaster. loss in agricultural production in the sample interview, there were 100% households who experienced loss in agricultural production with the average loss of 5.92 million per household. in giao thien commune, loss in crop production was the biggest, because farmers in this commune mostly used high-quality rice varieties like bc15 and sticky rice, which often required long times of farming. the typhoons were earlier than the usual, these rice fields were not yet up for harvest when the typhoon hit. in giao thien commune, loss in livestock production was less, because of the small scale. the local people prepared well to move animals to safer places and strengthened animal houses before and during the disaster. loss in fishing income losses in fishing income were higher than the losses from damage to property and agricultural production. however, there was the only household have fishing that was affected. in the sample, there were 60 households (63.16%) with a loss in fishing income phong, mai, & aditto factors influencing the households’ adaptation under natural disaster risk … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 111 with the average loss of 15.25 million vnd per household. early warning system worked well in the region. fishers were able to move fishing boats and gears to safer places. giao thien commune had fewer fishers so did not have a fishing port and a boat bay. fishing boats had to be moved to the inner areas of the mangrove or safer places in other communes during time have natural disaster risk. therefore, damages to fishing boats were usually remarkable. fishers were not able to reach the boats during typhoons (because of distance) to pump water out or to strengthen the boats so damages to boat engine, loss of fishing gears, etc. thus, in this commune, damages to fishing boats and gears were due to poor fishing infrastructure, fewer preparations before and during time have typhoons. loss in aquaculture the mostly of households’ aquaculture had ponds. the farms are concentrated in areas near estuaries and coastal areas. the majority of farming is brackish lagoons, a few are freshwater marshes and salt marshes. the results also from group discussion show that in 2013, the giao thien commune has converted nearly 2 hectares of rice and salt low productivity to aquaculture. aquaculture is profitable farming areas, per capita income of nearly 300 million / ha, more than 3 times higher than rice and salt. however, there are many risks. when a disaster occurs, most of the power station is disconnected or damaged, the same time as the water mills provide oxygen for the shrimp cannot work. when it is raining heavily, it will change salinity and ph, the alkalinity of shrimp’s environment living prone to situations of shrimp, clams, dead or incubation will arise later. through the survey shows, there were 21 households, accounting for 22.1% of the total sample, facing loss in aquaculture with the average loss of 29.51 million vnd per household because aquaculture in the selected communes was vulnerable to storm surge, flood, and typhoons. the loss in aquaculture was huge due to the large investments required in aquaculture operations and most of the fishponds are close to the central sea dike or beyond the dike. the location of ponds makes it difficult to have effective preparation methods before or during typhoons. floods along with typhoons swiped away fish stock and pond accessories and broke pond dike etc. impact of coastal erosion/ sea level rise in these current years, coastal erosion is not a big problem in the commune since the central sea dike is strongly improved and concreted. however, erosion is still observed in some areas beyond at fishponds along the red riverbank in giao thien. the riverbank is continuously eroded and a small community living beyond the dike to the riverbank has been moved inside the dike. there were two households with losses in aquaculture about 50 million vnd. accordingly, group discussion was showing sea level rise is observed and there were attempts to upgrade fishpond dike and pond water gate every year. it is crucial for th e phong, mai, & aditto factors influencing the households’ adaptation under natural disaster risk … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 112 fish farmers to control the salinity to protect shrimp and crab farming against the sea level rise and typhoons. the majority of interview households recognized the loss of agricultural land due to sea level rise and related events less (57.89%). those household’s loss of agricultural land (larger and largest) that are households living outside the dikes. figure 1 loss land for agricultural production source: author, 2018 the frequency and value of household damage from saltwater intrusion in the selected sites are showed in table 4. saltwater intrusion affected mostly agriculture and aquaculture. in the sample, 100% households experienced loss in agricultural production with the average loss of 4.5 million vnd. besides, there were 6 households’ members, whose got kidney problems (with the average 5.2 million vnd) and 15 households had a problem with lack of freshwater for family routines. table 4 mean value of household level damages from saltwater intrusion by commune in 2017 (unit: 1000 vnd) damages loss in agricultural production death/ loss of livestock household members got kidney problems lack of freshwater for family routines others. 4,500 (95) 0 5,200 (6) 2,400 (15) 1,800 (1) note: figures in parentheses are frequency of respondents source: author, 2018 other effects impact on education according to the group discussion results support the survey findings above, the impacts of natural disaster risk on education mainly due to sea-level rise and floods, which damaged the infrastructure of schools and disrupted school-time of students. typically, in vietnam, children in school age which can stay at home with their parents in case of a storm, heavy flooding. however, in coastal areas, whenever a flood occurs, the damage caused by natural disasters is much greater than the other coast region. therefore, every 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 extremely important important quite importantsomewhat important not important inside dikes outside dikes phong, mai, & aditto factors influencing the households’ adaptation under natural disaster risk … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 113 time a typhoon made landfall, the school and the facilities are more severely devastated, children should stay at home for longer. in particular, there are some pupils to leave school because of relatives killed, missed or injured by the effects of typhoons, especially those students from poor households, it affected the quality of education. as mentioned above, currently the coastal households live mainly on the fishing inshore fishery. education of local people is still very low. children are growing up in here when the family had to go to sea fishing, so the time for learning is very short. another side, when the typhoon hit, all the households here need to find shelter, so right after a long time when the typhoon ends, new classes can operate normal. impact on health on the one hand, group discussion was talking about as a rule after the environmental disaster was a major disturbance, polluted water, which was the cause of flooded outbreaks of intestinal diseases and diseases spread by source waters (including animal diseases, natural disease outbreaks, patients from other places). 2. adaptation of hhs with natural disaster risk adaptation with disaster risk in crop before the disaster, people have to take measures to help them mitigate the damage to production as well as infrastructure (oecd, 2008; brammer, 2013). measures are different for each type of disaster. however, we categorize people’s measures to prevent and reduce the harmful effects of disaster risk into three main groups which include prevention measures, measures to transfer and measures to face to face risks. for rural households, disaster risk has the greatest impact on the affected households that depend on farming. when natural disasters affect farming areas, not only production is affected but also household income. therefore, depending on resources, their ability already has measures to reduce disaster risk for cultivating their fields. they have been used measures include regular information monitoring and change production seasonality, change varieties of plants and animals, insurance, storage of fertilizers, reserves pesticide and other inputs, reserves seed. regularly monitoring of information: the farmers can track weather information, seasonality that is extremely important. from time immemorial, people have been interested in the weather by monitoring the natural phenomena like the moon, the clouds, and the sun from which to make decisions related to seasonality as well as disaster prevention. today, with the development of television, radio, books people actively seek information about seasonal weather changes. besides local agricultural extension system, the village head, village chief propaganda also involved providing information to farmers. in addition to information about the weather, people also follow the progress of information such as the new science and technology, new drought-resistant varieties, cold weather. this is a measure to help farmers increase pro-activeness in preventing and facing disasters. however, some households still have limited understanding and access phong, mai, & aditto factors influencing the households’ adaptation under natural disaster risk … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 114 information and use the information to prevent disaster risk reduction are limited. therefore, through aggregated data shows that more than 85% of households regularly monitor information. changing season calendar: this is a simple measure but highly effective in the prevention and mitigation of disaster risk losses caused. according to the calculation that the laws of nature, weather and households change in planting date earlier or before 1 week, 2 weeks to be harvested before the stage of disaster or occurrence, or the period of the decisions important crop variety can yield avoid disaster. some households also apply the change planting season for trees suitable for the weather to avoid disaster risk. according to survey data, the percentage of households is applying this measure very much, an average of nearly 79%. the village number 19 is the highest rate (100%) and the number second is village number 21 (nearly 90%). changing seed: to shorten the cultivation or select varieties suitable for the local weather, as well as cycles of natural disasters occur locally conducted relative changes of plant varieties. some households have switched to grow vegetables that take short days to mature instead of corn. another difficulty when converting plant is money invested in seeds, fertilizers, and plant protection products may be more expensive and therefore fewer households apply with 31%. buying agricultural insurance: agricultural insurance is a common form in the world to help farmers reduce the risk of natural disasters either by price fluctuations in the market (dercon, s., 2002; dercon, s. h. 2004). but in vietnam, it was developed in 2011 and the insurance was pilot tested after 3 years over 300 thousand households. this figure is relatively small compared with 10 million households across the country. the causes for households hadn't been participating in agricultural insurance that was due to the propagation and promotion. besides, farmers did not fully understand the benefits of agricultural insurance also. also, procedures for agricultural insurance is cumbersome. people went through a lot of time-consuming steps in the acquiring membership certification. in the study area, only some households are from the projects of nongovernmental organizations to support agricultural insurance. however, the number of households to be involved are not more than 2%. a measure of agricultural insurance is regarded as the most effective measure to deal with disaster risk. the measure was classified as risk transfer measures, the community supports each other in a fair manner. table 5 adaptation of the households with disaster risk in crop measures of the households adapt with disaster risk in crop frequency percentage (%) regularly monitor information 81 85.26 seasonally adjusted production 75 78.95 changing crop varieties 15 15.79 buy insurance 1 1.05 reserve fertilizers, pesticides, and other inputs 60 63.16 reserve seed 83 87.37 source: author, 2018 phong, mai, & aditto factors influencing the households’ adaptation under natural disaster risk … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 115 save fertilizers, pesticides, and other inputs: these are measures in heading face of disaster risks. households did not reserve funds, but they bought inputs for production. at the time of low input prices in the year, people will buy inputs capable of preserving as seeds, fertilizers or pesticides, and these measures do not help household cope with disaster risk. in the event of a disaster risk, people can take reserves to produce together. the average rate is 63.16% of households regularly applied measures to a reserve of seed, fertilizer, and other inputs. that depends on the households' resources, so the poor households have less access. save seed production: because households have long-standing experience in production so who's the risk prevention measures is diversity. however, the measures mainly focused on prevention and facing risks. households still focus on essential risk prevention measures which include the seasonal adjustment of production combined with monitoring information regularly. also, 87.37% of the households surveyed had applied measures "reserves seed production". thus, the households’ cultivation used to 6 responses to natural disasters in reducing the damage includes (1) regularly monitor information; (2) changes seasonal calendar; (3) changes in crop varieties; (4) buy insurance; (5) save of fertilizer and pesticide inputs; (6) save seed production. people mainly used to precaution and face risks. a group of people used to preventive measures to avoid risks. a good deal of common is seasonally adjusted production of households, who have to deal with disaster risk in using the methods of cultivation present. adaptation with disaster risk in livestock and aquaculture about natural disaster risks in the livestock sector, among forms were applied by people, there were 5 from 6 measures of prevention group. according to survey data, there was only one measure to face risks and nobody applied that. the percentage of households that implement response measures are shown in figure 9. current status of the household responded investigation with disasters in the livestock and fisheries shows that the two measures are prioritized implementing changes forms of livestock and crop adjustments. this is the simplest form of response that households can make in order to adapt. the actual survey showed that households choose early harvest for aquaculture (shrimp, fish, etc.) and sell livestock early (cattle, pigs,) to prevent and minimize the risk of damage caused by natural disasters. again, households have adjusted measures that are suitable for animal husbandry. to cope with storms and floods, households also implemented a number of measures such as relocation of animals to another location, use the shield to avoid rain and the wind to protect livestock. a number of households did not livestock, changed season calendar and built firm animal lodging that was low, ranging from 15-20%. for families living in rural areas, their income based on agricultural production so if they left livestock, it would be a difficult measure. abandoning livestock and crop mean household will lose part of family's income per year, and the transition to other forms of production, in order to earn extra income. therefore, phong, mai, & aditto factors influencing the households’ adaptation under natural disaster risk … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 116 figure 2 adaptation of households with disaster risk in livestock and aquaculture source: author, 2018 only 20% of households applied negative measures. conversely, the percentage of households applied “changing livestock” and “build durable animal houses” were not higher than because they didn't have capital. for aquaculture, farmers sought to reinforce embankments before the storm occurs. they decreased in the aquaculture area and caught them before hurricane season. there was 72% of households said that in order to reduce the damage to people and property in the event of a large storm, they have been relocated to safe places to avoid storms such as schools, clinics, or the people’s committees of point’s concentrated storm. however, some households leave behind about 1-2 members to protect and look after the house. 100% of households said that during rainstorms, households often send people to inspect the shore dress to try to correct promptly when incidents occur. adaptation with disaster risk in infrastructure and human the measure that is most applicable protection is at a rate of up to 80% including food reserves, against housing ligament, tendon against the house. food reserves, tendon, and ligament against anti barn houses are basic measures, common to be ready to face the risks, to be applied to households mainly based on folklore. that is the explanation for the popularity of these measures. at research area occurring storms, people fight against the door both outside and inside with iron wire, nylon wire, bamboo and wooden planks on the wooden walls, and bamboo walls, roof insert sandbags, roofed concrete. in addition, households also make moving property and household goods arrive safely to prevent and minimize risks caused by natural disaster. 3. factors that affect to households’ livelihoods in adapting to the risk of natural disasters impacts factors from households according to the approach used, themes include the sustainable livelihoods framework developed by the department for international development uk (dfid, 2000) and the analysis and assessment of the state of vulnerability and ability to cope with risk disaster – vca (vulnerability and capacity assessment and analysis) (2009), researcher found that at the household level there are 5 main groups of factors that affect the ability to cope 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 building permanent housing adjust the seasonal cenlendar change kind of livestock changing forms of livestock skip livestock reduce the number of pets phong, mai, & aditto factors influencing the households’ adaptation under natural disaster risk … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 117 with the exploration of households with natural disaster risk. they include: (1) social capital; (2) natural capital; (3) financial capital; (4) physical capital; (5) human capital. in this study, the logit model used to evaluate the factors influencing the households' adaptation under natural disaster risk in the coastal area. the dependent variable is the group of households respond with natural disaster risk (includes: no response and response). the independent variables are: social capital: (1) fi formal institutions (the number of organizations that engage family members); (2) ii institutional informal (number of close friends); natural capital includes: (3) la land area of the household; human capital variables measured by: (4) lb number of labors in household; (5) ag the age of the household’s head or decision-maker about coping in the family; (6) gthe gender of the household’s head or decision-maker about coping in the family; (7) ed the level of education of the household’s head or decision-maker; financial capital represented by variables: (8) ic income of household per year; the results (table 6) showed different levels of variables influence of response to decisions of the households to natural disasters. when all 8 independent variables were considered together, they significantly predicted whether respond or not respond dependent by respondents, the pseudo r2 is 0.5161 in model summary tables. it means that approximately 51.61% of the variance in predicting the types of y dependents. the results in table 6 explained that three independent variables of ii, la and ic predicted significantly to the types of y at significant level of 0.05 and two independent variables of fi and lb significantly at level 0.1. table 6 logit model results y coef. std. err. z p>|z| [95% conf. interval] fi 1.500988 .7814285 1.92 0.055 -.0305836 3.03256 ii .692825 .3255874 2.13 0.033 .0546854 1.330965 lb 1.024061 .5507707 1.86 0.063 -.0554295 2.103552 ag -.0834901 .0530966 -1.57 0.116 -.1875575 .0205773 g -.0981146 .9109546 -0.11 0.914 -1.883553 1.687324 ed -.6567017 1.16443 -0.56 0.573 -2.938943 1.62554 la .0012499 .0005683 . 2.20 0.028 .0001361 .0023637 ic .1861537 .0897235 2.07 0.038 .0102989 .3620084 _cons -10.11486 4.332598 -2.33 0.020 -18.6066 -1.623126 source: compiled by the author phong, mai, & aditto factors influencing the households’ adaptation under natural disaster risk … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 118 the model has formula: y = 1.500988 fi + 0.692825 ii + 1.024061 lb + 0.0012499 la + 0.1861537 ic social capital: for the probability of household respond, variables influenced ii with 95% confidence level and fi significantly level 0.1. this may explain if the households had participating organizations, they will get more be informed through unions, associations such as the youth union, women’s union, farmers union, veterans association, society elderly. they have been integrated content propagation on disaster risk prevention and assistance to members in times of difficulty when they faced risks. through modeling data, it showed that when households increase one more mainstream organization, we expect a 1.50988 increase in the log-odds of the ability to apply measures to respond to risk of natural disaster. the informal institutions such as close friends also have an impact on prevention response decisions of the household. however, the effects of ii were not much, about 0.692825 for up one close. this can be explained to a household with an inferiority complex, they were often making friends with the household, who had the same their circumstances. they will support each other but it will be less effective because their life is very difficult the same. for residents, their trust affected the decision to respond. actually, when the author was collecting data on the household’s confidence in the state’s policy to support, according to statistics they were confident about the policy content. however, a part of local policy enforcement is causing much annoyance to support farmers as false objects, support non-real-life situation of production (petzold, & ratter, 2015). natural capital: natural capital can affect the decisions of households. the land element was basic resources of the households, but the land area of the household is limited, so the area increases or decreases do not affect their decisions. from the data of the model it is shown that if the area increases 1m2, it will increase by 0.0012499 probability decide to apply respond measures of the household in coastal areas at risk of natural disasters. financial capital: financial capital represents the variation of household savings in the year (skees, 1999). savings have an influence on decisions of household responses. through the model, results showed that the variable ic affecting decisions of household responded, this variable was statistically significant at the 95% significance level. if the factor saves increase to 1 million vnd, the probability decides of households respond with a natural disaster will increase about 0.186 of the time. this research showed that highincome households will accumulate more (carter & ikegami, 2007) and that used to purchase fertilizers, change the seed... human capital: in the human capital, variables of the factor impact included: household's labor, the age of household's head, the gender of the household's head or person decision, the level of education of the household's head or the personal decision (jacoby & skoufias, 1997; holzmann, & jørgensen, 2001). all of the factors influencing decisions of households have significant at 95%. however, household labor is factor significance in influencing decisions of households responding with statistically significant at level 0.1. that means if labor increases one person, the decision to apply measures of the households will increase 1.024 times of probability. phong, mai, & aditto factors influencing the households’ adaptation under natural disaster risk … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 119 thus, the main factors affecting the response of households to the risk of natural disaster, including (1) fi; (2) ii; (3) lb; (4) la and (5) ic. factors from community the organizations, groups, local associations have a very important role in that household living through the groups, associations of people, especially the farmers to interact and exchange experience in risk prevention strategies. on the other hand, through organizations, groups, local associations of people have shared mutual assistance in case of difficulties. through the actual data it showed no significant difference between the groups of households participating or not participating groups in the incidence of natural disasters. however, in terms of the extent of damage we see clear differences between the households participating and households not participating involved in organized groups. the groups of households participating were losses average 17.8 million vnd, while the households did not participate which were damaged 22.5 million vnd. the communities in rural areas have traditionally united to help each other from time immemorial, but there are communities of solidarity, and there are the communities which still have not been linked together in disaster prevention. these communities are often linked with a system of conventions, the convention is very tight in the village. before the disaster, people help each other to transport their assets to the high places, to avoid damage. many villages have several funds that are used to help families that are at risk. thus, the community is the main factor to influence people in the resilience of the people in coastal areas with risk of natural disasters. the communities, organizations, groups, and associations were sharing information and experience in preventing the natural disaster, especially the poor people (because of they limited access to modern sources of information such as tv, the internet, newspaper…). the survey data also showed that if households participated in groups, associations that were damaged to natural disaster risk lower than households did not involve in groups. factors from government programs are formed to respond to natural disasters through the decision and decree of the government (hereinafter referred to as the response program) for supporting a portion of funds for damage caused by disaster. specifically, cash support from 1 to 30 million vnd/ ha for each level of damage and objects various crops; from 10 thousand vnd to 4 million vnd for a head of cattle and poultry; and from 3 to 60 million vnd/ ha for each level of damage, and each kind of different fisheries affected by natural disasters through decision no. 49/2012 / qd-ttg (november 8th, 2012) of socialist republic of vietnam (2012). support for loss of life and property due to natural disasters are specified in article 12 of decree no. 67/2007 / nd-cp ( from 2007 to 2/2010) and paragraph 8, article 1, decree no. 13/2010 / nd-cp (from 3/2010) which provides support from 1-1.5 million vnd for the wounded; 3 to 4.5 million vnd for people were dead or missing; 5-7 phong, mai, & aditto factors influencing the households’ adaptation under natural disaster risk … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 120 million vnd for the collapse, drop, drift, severely damaged; and 5-7 million vnd for the displaced families of emergency due to the risk landslides and flash floods. besides the initial response, the program has focused on disaster prevention strategies through removing temporary housing for households in regions frequently occurring natural disasters (decision no. 167/2008 / qd-ttg); raising public awareness about disaster risk management (decision no. 1002 / qd-ttg dated 13/07/2009). the response to this program has initially contributed to the rural population in areas of natural disasters frequently occur with partial funding to overcome the first step in production losses as well as losses on the basis of infrastructure. additionally, these programs also contribute initially to raise awareness to the people about disaster risks and prevention. however, standing at a different angle, the effectiveness of policy responses based on the decision and decree is not high and has limited response capacity of the people in rural areas at risk of natural disasters. these factors have limited response from the program and are shown through the following issues: (1) the overlap and spread of these programs have limited response capacity to cope with the people, especially the people. (2) the procedures for implementing the program is complex response, low support levels, speed up the slow disbursement efficiency is not high response. (3) capacity policy enforcement officials, especially the commune staff should effectively limited enforcement is not high, adaptive capacity of people has not improved. other factors as discussed in the section above, the adaptive capacity of household at risk of natural disasters depends on factors including social capital, natural capital, financial capital, physical capital, human capital and the policies of the state. however, there are many other factors, though not directly affected or directly affected but had not affected major factors as the cultural characteristics of each ethnic group, region, supporting organizations and individuals inside and outside country (djalante, holley, & thomalla, 2011). the cultural characteristics affect the ability of people to respond to natural disasters. cultural characteristics affect the ability to acquire knowledge on disaster prevention. misconceptions about disaster phenomena are not abandoned due to the longstanding formation. the support of ngos and other private institutions: in recent years, in disadvantaged areas, organizations helped households whose affected by natural disasters. the assistance such as food, clothing, seeds, and fertilizers helped people experiencing difficulties in certain periods during disasters. but the only help solves the immediate problem or face measures that do not have measures to help people transfer or avoid phong, mai, & aditto factors influencing the households’ adaptation under natural disaster risk … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 121 risks. with non-governmental organizations, ngos have coordinated measures to help people with sustainable development measures. however, resources of organizations with good model’s limit should not be replicated (spalding, ruffo, lacambra, meliane, hale, shepard, & beck, 2014). thus, the support of individuals, organizations and socio-economic characteristics, the culture of each region also affects the ability of household to respond to the resilience of household. conclusion natural disaster risk caused serious (i) loss and damages to houses, (ii) agricultural production, (iii) fishing income, and (iv) aquaculture income of households. therein, aquaculture sub-sector in the selected communes was the most vulnerable to typhoon surge, flood. coastal erosion did not affect much the coastal households. but saltwater intrusion affected mostly agriculture and freshwater aquaculture. results showed that saltwater intrusion seems to be one of the major natural disaster risks together with typhoons/floods affecting livelihoods and lives of the coastal households. thus, there is a need to build up an effective agricultural and fishery insurance service to provide more choices for the local households to cope and adapt to natural disaster risk. the findings from the research show the main factors affecting the resilience of the household to natural disaster risks are (1) fi; (2) ii; (3) tr; (4) la and (5) ic. the community is a big factor to influence people in the resilience of the household in the coastal areas at risk of natural disasters. communities, organizations, groups, and associations were sharing information and experience with households in the coastal areas. the survey data also showed that households participate in groups, associations, the damage to natural disaster risk are also lower than households not involved. the support of individuals, organizations and socio-economic characteristics, the culture of each region also affects the ability of people to respond to the resilience of people to disaster risks. the pattern of non-governmental organizations works well with people, but also in the area of influence narrow scale, need replication in suitable areas to help farmers improve their lives thereby improving application city. references adpc. 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http://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?&title=climatic%20constraints%20and%20human%20activities&pages=93-124&publication_year=1980&author=warrick%2cr.%20a microsoft word 02-rakhmat jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 12, nomor 1, april 2011, hlm.13-26 preferensi masyarakat pada komoditas elektronika asal cina pasca pemberlakuan cafta 2010 rakhmat priyono fakultas ekonomi universitas jenderal soedirman purwokerto jalan h.r. boenyamin purwokerto 53115 e-mail: priyonorakhmat@gmail.com abstract: this study examined the ability of domestic consumption in household electronic equipment identified as china's commodity. focus on the demand sides, this research examined preference of purwokerto society to the china product. generally, the society had well ability to differ between china products and non-china products. they were not skeptic to choose china products if its substitute product was not acquired at market sold. on society opinion, the china products had potential threat to sustainability of local and domestic product. on preference term, higher level preference of china product than non-china product included to telecommunication and audio/video electronic products. the other way, the society gave lower preferences to china product included computer and its peripherals, and kitchen or household electronic products. keywords: domestic consumption, commodities from china, community preferences, product competitiveness abstrak: riset ini meneliti kemampuan konsumsi domestik terhadap peralatan elektronik rumah tangga dari negeri cina. fokus penelitian ini pada sisi permintaan dan menguji preferensi purwokerto masyarakat terhadap produk cina. pada umumnya, masyarakat bisa membedakan antara produk cina dan produk non-cina. mereka tidak ragu memilih produk cina jika produk penggantinya yang tidak diperoleh di pasaran. menurut penilaian masyarakat, produk cina memiliki potensi ancaman terhadap kelangsungan produk lokal dan domestik. dalam kaitannya dengan preferensi, tingkat preferensi produk cina yang lebih tinggi dibandingkan produk non-cina terutama untuk produk telekomunikasi dan audio/video elektronik. sementara itu, masyarakat memberikan preferensi yang lebih rendah terhadap produk cina termasuk produk komputer dan peripheral, dan produk peralatan dapur atau elektronik rumah tangga. kata kunci: konsumsi domestik, komoditas asal cina, preferensi masyarakat, daya saing produk pendahuluan pada tahun 2010 telah disepakati perdagangan bebas antarwilayah asia tenggara dengan melibatkan cina. jika ditilik dari hasil rekam cgi (global competitiveness index) untuk daya saing tahun 2008, cina merupakan negara industri baru yang memiliki potensi sebagai ancaman bagi negara lain. hanya dalam periode 1 tahun saja (2007 sampai 2008), daya saing cina meningkat 4 tingkat dari peringkat 34 menjadi 30. negara ini juga terlihat lebih mampu untuk bersaing dibandingkan dengan negara asean. pada data gci, posisi indonesia masih lebih baik daripada daya saing vietnam maupun filipina. meskipun demikian jika dibandingkan dengan negara di kawasan asia tenggara lainnya maupun kawasan asia timur, indonesia terlihat jauh tertinggal. singapura, jepang, korea selatan, cina, malaysia, dan brunei darussalam menempati posisi kemampuan daya saing yang dekat dengan negara industri barat. di samping kemampuan daya saing cina, jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 12, nomor 1, april 2011: 13-26 14 kekuatan ekonomi cina yang besar juga turut mendorong ekspansi yang lebih besar ke negara lain. dari ukuran produk domestik bruto berdasar purchasing power parity, pdb cina telah melebihi kekuatan pdb jepang. pada tahun 2007, pdb ppp cina berada pada posisi ke dua setelah amerika sementara jepang di posisi ketiga. hal ini mengindikasikan peta kekuatan ekonomi dunia telah bergeser (kadin, 2009). perkembangan perekonomian cina yang sangat pesat telah mendapat perhatian seluruh negara di dunia, baik itu sebagai ancaman maupun membuka munculnya peluang yang baru (departemen perdagangan, 2005). produk cina telah dikenal lama di dunia untuk berbagai produk spesifik, tetapi dengan masuknya cina pada pasar bebas dunia dapat menjadi ancaman karena akan mengindikasikan semakin mudahnya produk cina masuk ke pasar domestik. terlebih dengan pertumbuhan manufakturnya yang pesat, produk cina semakin variatif dengan hasil produk yang bercitra teknologi tinggi. tekanan produk cina menimbulkan kekhawatiran tersendiri pada eksistensi produk domestik di pasar dalam negeri maupun luar negeri. demikian pula cina dianggap sebagai ancaman karena komoditas-komoditas ekspornya yang makin berkualitas dan harganya relatif murah. murahnya produk cina tidak hanya karena biaya input (terutama upah tenaga kerja) yang rendah, namun cina juga memberlakukan nilai tukar yang tetap rendah (undervaluation of yuan) terhadap mata uang dolar as. selain itu, pemberlakuan tax duty juga merupakan salah satu faktor penyebab rendahnya harga produk-produk ekspor cina. di sisi lain, produk cina juga dapat memberikan gambaran adanya peluang bagi perusahaan domestik. hal ini setidaknya terungkap dari working group on economic cooperation (2001) di mana free trade area asean–cina diperkirakan dapat memberi keuntungan bagi kedua belah pihak. ekspor asean ke cina akan meningkat sebesar 48 persen dan ekspor cina ke asean akan meningkat 55,1 persen. gdp riil asean diperkirakan bertambah sebesar us$5,4 miliar (0,9 persen) dan gdp riil cina akan meningkat sebesar us$2,2 miliar (0,3 persen). kenaikan gdp anggota asean terbesar akan dinikmati oleh vietnam (2,15 persen), sedangkan indonesia (1,12 persen) sedikit lebih rendah dari malaysia (1,17 persen) (kadin, 2009). sekalipun sebuah negara akan mendapatkan manfaat positif dari perdagangan internasional, namun mungkin saja hal ini akan memberi dampak tidak menguntungkan bagi beberapa kelompok masyarakat dalam satu negara. hal ini terjadi jika perdagangan internasional memberikan pengaruh yang besar dalam distribusi pendapatan. satu sisi yang perlu diungkap adalah bahwa dampak liberalisasi perdagangan tidak hanya berpengaruh terhadap produksi, namun juga dapat terjadi pada perubahan konsumsi. pada banyak negara termasuk indonesia, liberalisasi perdagangan telah mempengaruhi pola konsumsi masyarakat termasuk dalam menyikapi produk impor. pada umumnya riset mengenai ketahanan suatu produk domestik dilihat dari sisi produsen. dalam hal ini jika proses produksi perusahaan domestik tidak mampu menghasilkan produk dengan tingkat efisiensi yang lebih tinggi dari produk impor, maka hasil produk domestik tersebut tidak akan mampu bersaing di pasar domestik. demikian pula, jika proses produksi perusahaan domestik untuk tujuan ekspor lebih rendah efisiensinya dibandingkan dengan perusahaan berlokasi di negara lain maka pasar perusahaan domestik tersebut akan memiliki daya saing yang rendah di pasar global. dengan demikian bagaimana pengukuran kemampuan produk untuk tetap eksis dapat dilihat dari sisi produsen dengan memperhitungkan efisiensi proses produksinya. di sisi lain, kemampuan produk domestik untuk tetap bertahan juga ditentukan dari sisi konsumennya. logikanya jelas, jika preferensi konsumen pada produk domestik rendah jika dibandingkan dengan produk impor maka konsumen dalam negeri akan meninggalkan produk domestik. mereka akan lebih memilih produk impor. sebaliknya jika preferensi konsumen pada produk domestik masih tetap tinggi, kosumen akan lebih memilih produk domestik. pada sisi ini, pengukuran daya tahan produk domestik dapat diukur dari seberapa besar preferensi masyarakat pada komoditas (rakhmat priyono) 15 preferensi permintaan masyarakat pada produk domestik. terkait dengan berlakunya cafta (china asean free trade area) pada 2010 ini, penelitian ini akan menggali bagaimana kemampuan daya tahan produk lokal akibat semakin banyaknya produk cina yang masuk ke pasar domestik. penelitian ini berfokus pada sisi permintaan masyarakat domestik dengan studi kasus yang spesifik di satu kota, yaitu purwokerto. penelitian ini penting dilakukan mengingat munculnya kekhawatiran bahwa masyarakat akan beralih ke produk cina yang lebih variatif dengan harga lebih murah. jika preferensi masyarakat telah beralih maka akan mematikan produk lokal dan imbasnya pada jatuhnya sektor ekonomi lokal. dari penjelasan tersebut, penelitian mengenai preferensi masyarakat purwokerto ini bertujuan untuk: (1) mengetahui preferensi masyarakat purwokerto pada produk tahan lama bukan asal cina dengan produk impor asal cina sebagai substitusinya. (2) mengetahui variabel apa saja yang memberikan pengaruh penting pada konsumsi dan preferensi masyarakat di purwokerto pada produk tahan lama asal cina. metode penelitian materi data dan metode pengumpulannya kajian analisis konsumsi produk cina pada masyarakat purwokerto ini akan menggunakan data primer. data ini diperoleh melalui wawancara secara langsung dengan responden. metode pengumpulannya dilakukan dengan stratifikasi antarwaktu dan antarruang. pada pola antarwaktu, pengambilan data dilakukan selama periode 2 bulan. harapannya adalah akan dapat diketahui perkembangan respons dari narasumber. setiap bulan dilakukan survei terhadap 100 orang responden. dengan demikian sampel data penelitian ini akan diperoleh sebanyak 200 sampel responden yang berbeda. pada pola antarruang, data dikumpulkan berdasar basis 4 kecamatan di wilayah perkotaan purwokerto. jumlah sampel per kecamatan adalah sebanyak 25 responden. sampel sebanyak 100 orang per bulan merujuk pada penelitian kantor bank indonesia purwokerto dalam penghitungan indeks keyakinan konsumsi (ikk) di wilayah purwokerto (kantor bank indonesia purwokerto, 20052010). asumsi yang digunakan adalah jumlah sampel ini sudah cukup mampu untuk memberikan pembedaan karakteristik antarkonsumen purwokerto. penghitungan preferensi konsumen preferensi konsumen menunjukkan perilaku konsumen untuk memilih apakah suatu produk perlu atau penting untuk dikonsumsi atau tidak. pada penelitian ini untuk mengetahui nilai preferensi konsumen digunakan ukuran nilai semantic differential di mana dengan ukuran ini nilai data yang sifatnya ordinal dikonversi menjadi kardinal. nilai dari variabel dummy atau skala [0;1] diasumsikan sudah cukup memadai untuk mengukur nilai preferensi konsumen. produk elektronika asal cina didefinisikan sebagai produk yang teridentifikasi sebagai produk dengan merek cina, bukan produk hasil foreign domestic investment (fdi) dari negara lain ke cina. pada penelitian ini, produk cina yang dianalisis meliputi 5 jenis komoditas elektronika, yaitu: (1) elektronika jenis audio video (televisi, radio, parabola, satellite receiver, home stereo, walkman, karaoke, headset, dan sejenisnya). (2) elektronika jenis telekomunikasi termasuk telematika (hand phone, pager, walkytalky, dan sejenisnya). (3) elektronika jenis komputer (desktop, notebook, netbook, i-pad, printer, scanner, kalkulator, dan perangkat komputer sejenisnya). (4) elektronika jenis alat dapur rumah tangga (kulkas, blender, microwave, coffeemaker, dan peralatan dapur elektronik lainnya). (5) elektronika jenis lainnya (ac, jam dinding/ meja, dan electronic home appliance lainnya) variabel yang mempengaruhi preferensi konsumen pada teori perilaku konsumen (consumer behaviour) dengan pendekatan kardinal, kepuasan seorang konsumen dalam mengonsumsi suatu barang dapat diukur dengan satuan mata uang. harapannya ialah setiap tambahan satu unit barang yang dikonsumsi akan menambah kepuasan yang diperoleh konsumen tersebut dalam jumlah tertentu. kotler (2000: 171) dan jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 12, nomor 1, april 2011: 13-26 16 wilkie (1994:121) menunjukkan faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi preferensi konsumen secara umum antara lain: harga. harga merupakan faktor penting dalam pengambilan keputusan. penentuan harga ini seharusnya didasarkan pada “the price that customer willing to pay”, bukan lagi berdasarkan full cost suatu produk. pendapatan. semakin tinggi pendapatan seseorang akan semakin respek pada barang mewah dan sebaliknya semakin menjauh dari barang-barang inferior. citra kepuasan pelanggan. pencitraan ini bisa didapatkan dari mulut ke mulut atau dilakukan dengan promosi produk. pencitraan sangat erat kaitannya dengan brand positioning suatu produk. kegunaan atau manfaat. manfaat dari suatu produk merupakan tujuan dari dibelinya produk tersebut. akan tetapi, manfaat tidak hanya sebatas kemampuan dasar produk saja, akan tetapi bisa mencakup tujuan terselubung dari dibelinya produk itu, misalkan suatu produk dibeli hanya karena mengikuti trend yang ada. pelayanan kepada pelanggan. pelayanan ini meliputi pada saat pembelian sampai pascapembelian. pelayanan yang baik akan berbanding lurus dengan peningkatan citra merek. kelas sosial. pada dasarnya masyarakat memiliki kelas sosial. kelas sosial adalah pembagian masyarakat yang relatif homogen dan permanen yang tersusun secara hierarkis dan anggotanya menganut nilai, minat, dan perilaku yang serupa. kelas sosial tidak hanya mencerminkan penghasilan, tetapi juga indikator lain seperti pekerjaan, pendidikan, dan tempat tinggal. keputusan pembelian konsumen juga dipengaruhi oleh karakteristik pribadi atau individu. karakteristik tersebut meliputi usia dan siklus hidup, pekerjaan dan keadaan ekonomi, kepribadian, gaya hidup dan konsep diri. usia dan tahapan siklus hidup konsumen mempunyai pengaruh penting terhadap perilaku konsumen. seberapa usia konsumen biasanya menunjukkan produk apa yang menarik baginya untuk dibeli. faktor psikologis. pilihan pembelian konsumen dipengaruhi oleh empat faktor psikologi utama yaitu: motivasi, persepsi, pembelajaran, serta keyakinan dan pendirian. konsumen memiliki banyak kebutuhan pada waktu tertentu dan beberapa kebutuhan bersifat biogenis. kebutuhan tersebut muncul dari tekanan biologis seperti lapar, haus, dan tidak nyaman. kebutuhan lain dapat bersifat psikogenis. kebutuhan ini muncul dari tekanan psikologis seperti kebutuhan akan pengakuan dan penghargaan. suatu kebutuhan akan menjadi motif jika ia didorong hingga mencapai tingkat intensitas yang memadai. jadi, motif adalah kebutuhan yang mendorong seseorang untuk bertindak. sesuai dengan pendekatan kotler tersebut, preferensi konsumen dipengaruhi oleh 8 variabel tak tergantung. pada penelitian ini, 8 variabel tersebut seluruhnya dipergunakan untuk mendeteksi pengaruhnya pada preferensi konsumsi produk cina. pengukuran variabel-variabel tersebut sebagai berikut: 1. harga barang. pertanyaan yang disampaikan adalah: “bagaimana pendapat konsumen harga produk cina?” responden diminta untuk memberikan jawaban dari kategori 1 yang mewakili “sangat murah” sampai nilai 10 untuk kategori “sangat mahal”. nilai pada ukuran ini adalah aplikasi besaran semantic differential, di mana besaran nilai dapat dibedabedakan untuk melihat perbedaan perilaku antarobyek penelitian (responden). skala nilai absolut antara 1 sampai 10 ditentukan dengan tujuan untuk menangkap pilihan nilai yang tidak memunculkan definisi ragu-ragu atau mendua (umbiguity) karena tidak ada besaran nilai tengahnya. nilai 5 menunjukkan responden memilih “sedikit atau cenderung murah” dan nilai 6 menunjukkan responden memilih “sedikit atau cenderung mahal”. karena penentuan nilai minimum 5 dan 6 ini, tidak terdapat ruang bagi responden untuk memilih nilai pertengahan yang menyatakan pendapat yang ragu-ragu. 2. pendapatan konsumen. terkait dengan sulitnya mendapatkan data pendapatan responden, penelitian ini menggunakan proksi pengeluaran untuk mewakili nilai pendapatan responden. jawaban responden diklasifikasikan menjadi 3 kategori: pertama; responden dengan pengeluaran rp1 sampai rp3 juta per bulan. kedua; responden dengan pengeluaran di atas rp3 sampai rp5 juta per bulan. ketiga, responpreferensi masyarakat pada komoditas (rakhmat priyono) 17 den dengan pengeluaran di atas rp5 juta per bulan. 3. citra produk. kepuasan pelanggan atas citra produk cina diidentikkan dengan pertanyaan pada responden sebagai berikut: “bagaimana kepuasan anda ketika/jika menggunakan produk asal cina?” kategori jawaban responden adalah didasarkan pada metode semantic differential dengan memberikan jawaban dari kategori 1 yang mewakili “sangat tidak puas” sampai nilai 10 untuk kategori “sangat puas”. penjelasan kategori jawaban ini identik dengan variabel tak tergantung pertama (harga barang) 4. manfaat (kegunaan). kegunaan dari produk bagi konsumen produk cina didasarkan pada manfaat yang diperolehnya. pertanyaan pada responden adalah; “bagaimana manfaat yang dapat diperoleh dari produk cina?”. kategori jawaban responden adalah didasarkan pada metode semantic differential dengan memberikan jawaban dari kategori 1 yang mewakili “sangat tidak bermanfaat” sampai nilai 10 untuk kategori “sangat bermanfaat”. penjelasan kategori jawaban ini identik dengan variabel tak tergantung 1 (harga barang) dan 3 (citra kepuasan). 5. pelayanan. faktor pelayanan diidentifikasikan memberikan pengaruh pada preferensi konsumen. pada penelitian ini faktor pelayanan ditekankan pada pelayanan purna penjualan yang meliputi garansi dan ketersediaan spare parts komoditas tahan lama asal cina. pertanyaan yang diajukan ke responden adalah; “bagaimana layanan purna jual produk cina?” kategori jawaban responden adalah didasarkan pada metode semantic differential dengan memberikan jawaban dari kategori 1 yang mewakili “sangat buruk” sampai nilai 10 untuk kategori “sangat baik”. penjelasan kategori jawaban ini identik dengan variabel tak tergantung 1 (harga barang), 3 (citra kepuasan) dan 4 (manfaat). 6. kelas sosial. indikator kelas sosial bisa diidentifikasikan dari latar belakang pendidikan, pekerjaan dan tempat tinggalnya. pada penelitian ini variabel kelas sosial didasarkan pada indikator latar belakang pendidikan responden. berdasar pertanyaan tingkat pendidikan responden, jawaban responden diklasifikasikan menjadi 4 kategori: pertama, responden dengan pendidikan sma; kedua; responden dengan pendidikan diploma; ketiga, responden dengan pendidikan sarjana (s1); keempat; responden dengan pendidikan pascasarjana (s2 atau s3) 7. karakteristik individu (pribadi). keputusan pembelian oleh konsumen yang didasarkan oleh faktor karakteristik konsumen pada penelitian ini didasarkan pada faktor umur. pada penelitian ini, usia konsumen mampu menunjukkan produk apa yang menarik baginya untuk dibeli. karena obyek atau sasaran dari penelitian ini adalah konsumen penentu keputusan rumah tangga, jawaban responden diklasifikasikan menjadi 3 kategori; pertama, responden dengan umur 20–40 tahun; kedua, responden dengan umur lebih dari 40 tahun sampai 60 tahun. ketiga, responden dengan umur lebih dari 60 tahun. 8. faktor psikologis. sesuai dengan dasar teoritis, pilihan pembelian konsumen dipengaruhi oleh empat faktor psikologi utama yaitu: motivasi, persepsi, pembelajaran, serta keyakinan dan pendirian. pada penelitian ini, indikator keyakinan untuk membeli secara apriori ditentukan menjadi indikator dominan dan menjadi satu-satunya penentu faktor psikologi konsumen. indikator lain (motivasi dan pembelajaran) tidak diaplikasikan dalam model karena sulitnya membuat konversi ordinal menjadi kardinal. sementara indikator persepsi sudah secara implisit termuat dalam variabel preferensi yang menjadi variabel tergantung. pertanyaan yang diajukan ke responden adalah; “seberapa yakin ketika membeli (akan membeli) produk cina?” kategori jawaban responden adalah didasarkan pada metode semantic differential dengan memberikan jawaban dari kategori 1 yang mewakili “sangat tidak yakin” sampai nilai 10 untuk kategori “sangat yakin”. penjelasan kategori jawaban ini identik dengan variabel tak tergantung 1 (harga barang), 3 (citra kepuasan), 4 (manfaat), dan 5 (pelayanan). estimasi determinan yang mempengaruhi preferensi konsumsi dengan model probabilistik pada penelitian ini, model yang dipergunakan untuk menjelaskan kaitan antara variabel tergantung dengan variabel-variabel tak terganjurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 12, nomor 1, april 2011: 13-26 18 tung tersebut akan dipilih model ekonometri yang terbaik sesuai dengan kriteria teoritis dan gambaran hasil observasi. sebagai perkiraan awal, model terbaik untuk melihat bagaimana keputusan konsumen untuk melakukan pembelian produk asal cina dengan bukan produk cina adalah dengan model probabilitas logistik. analisis logistik digunakan untuk menganalisis data kualitatif yang mencerminkan pilihan di antara dua alternatif. dengan model logistik, nilai variabel tergantung dikondisikan sebagai variabel probabilistik (gujarati, 2003; 595 – 604), dimana:           ip1 iplnil =  0 +  1 x 1 t +  2 x 2 t + ….. + k x k t +  t (1) dimana,         i i i p p l 1 ln adalah variabel tergantung,  0 adalah konstanta; 1 , 2 , … , k adalah nilai parameter yang dicari; x1t , x2t , … , xk t adalah variabel tidak tergantung. model logistik memiliki ciri utama, yaitu (kuncoro, 2004); (1) karena p berada di antara nilai 0 dan 1, nilai logistik menjadi tidak terbatas (antara –  sampai + ). (2) l adalah linier dalam x tetapi probabilitas p tidak. (3) koefisien i mengukur seberapa jauh perbedaan l akibat perubahan x sebesar satu unit. dengan ciri seperti ini, maka metode estimasi model logistik tidak menggunakan pendekatan ekonometri ordinary least square (ols) tetapi maximum likehood estimation (mle) dari suatu vektor. untuk mendapatkan hasil regresi yang baik digunakan sebagai alat estimasi, perlu dilakukan serangkaian pengujian secara statistik dan ekonometri untuk mengetahui sejauh mana variabel bebas secara bersama-sama mempengaruhi output. pada metode regresi logistik ini, karena sampel variabel tak tergantung berdistribusi tidak normal maka perlu menggunakan metode alternatif dalam pengukuran validitas model (statsoft corp., 2001 dan spss inc., 1999), yaitu: (1) uji wald-wolfowitz runs tes (wald test) sebagai alternatif dari pengujian statistik t dari setiap variabel tak tergantung. (2) pengujian hosmer-lemeshow goodness-of-fit. aplikasi uji hosmer serupa dengan f tes biasa hanya perbedaannya variabel yang diperhatikan adalah bersifat kontinu dan diukur pada skala ordinal (misalnya skala). (3) uji kebaikan suai r2 nagelkarke (nagelkerke r2 test). karena preferensi dipengaruhi banyak faktor bebas, r2 diperkirakan akan kecil. meskipun demikian, dalam penelitian ini besaran r2 tidak terlalu penting karena penelitian ini hanya mengadopsi variabel bebas yang didasarkan dari sisi teoritis semata. validitas dari kebenaran pemilihan variabel bebas dalam penelitian ini lebih cenderung menggunakan ukuran teoritis dan ukuran statistik hanya sebagai penunjang semata. asumsi/batasan penelitian beberapa asumsi yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini antara lain: (1) preferensi merupakan variabel yang terukur dan dapat dikalkulasi secara empiris. (2) sulitnya untuk mengukur pendapatan pribadi, pengeluaran masyarakat atau konsumen setiap bulan digunakan sebagai proksi untuk mengukur tingkat pendapatan. (3) jumlah responden dalam penelitian sebanyak 200 orang dianggap cukup mampu merepresentasikan pola konsumsi masyarakat purwokerto. (4) responden dalam penelitian ini adalah kepala keluarga atau orang yang merepresentasikan kepala keluarga dan dianggap mampu mengambil keputusan konsumsi keluarga dengan tujuan untuk memilih responden yang mampu mengambil keputusan secara rasional. (5) dalam analisis faktor yang mempengaruhi preferensi, responden dianggap rasional dan mampu membedakan dengan baik antara produk asal cina dengan produk bukan asal cina (domestik). (6) sesuai dengan landasan teoritis pada faktor yang mempengaruhi preferensi, maka variabel tak tergantung yang diterapkan untuk mendeteksi perubahan variabel tujuan adalah sama yaitu menggunakan variabel bebas: harga, pendapatan, citra produk, manfaat, pelayanan, kelas sosial, karakter, dan psikologi. (7) penelitian ini tidak bertujuan untuk melakukan permodelan (modelling) melainkan untuk menguji secara riil pengaruh variabel bebas yang ditentukan secara teoritis terhadap preferensi masyarakat pada komoditas (rakhmat priyono) 19 variabel terikat. dengan demikian penelitian ini mengabaikan kemungkinan terjadinya bias parameter uji statistik dan tidak mementingkan tinggi rendahnya nilai parameter variabel tetapi lebih melihat pada besaran parameter variabel (positif atau negatif) dan tingkat signifikansinya. hasil dan pembahasan gambaran preferensi responden gambaran preferensi responden masyarakat purwokerto pada komoditas impor asal cina adalah sebagai berikut: (1) secara umum, masyarakat purwokerto cukup mampu membedakan antara produk impor asal cina dengan produk non-cina. sekitar 62,89 persen masyarakat mampu membedakannya dan selebihnya sekitar 37,11 persen kurang dapat membedakan suatu komoditas sebagai produk cina atau bukan. jika dirinci untuk setiap jenis komoditas yang diteliti, masyarakat paling mampu membedakan antara komoditas elektronik komunikasi asal cina (sekitar 84 persen). hanya sekitar 16 persen yang tidak mampu membedakannya. sementara, untuk produk elektronika audio video cukup besar juga, sekitar 68 persen. sebaliknya, untuk produk elektronika jenis komputer dan elektronika lainnya masyarakat cenderung kurang mampu mengerti perbedaannya. sekitar 51 persen masyarakat tidak mampu membedakan komoditas elektronik komunikasi dan 52 persen tidak mampu membedakan komoditas elektronik jenis lainnya. (2) masyarakat purwokerto tidak terlalu skeptis pada perilakunya untuk memilih produk asal cina. hal ini terbukti dari kecenderungan yang cukup besar untuk memilih produk cina ketika produk substitusinya tidak tersedia. sekitar 50 persen masyarakat menyatakan mereka akan membelinya dan selebihnya 50 persen masyarakat tidak bersedia membelinya ketika mendapatkan situasi ketiadaan produk substitusi di pasar. (3) pada kondisi ketiadaan kendala anggaran dan ketersediaan berbagai barang substitusi, masyarakat purwokerto cenderung untuk memilih produk non-cina. sebaiknya, demikian ketika menghadapi kendala anggaran, sebagian masyarakat purwokerto tidak terlalu bersifat memilih. sekitar 46 persen cukup yakin untuk membeli produk asal cina. sementara, sekitar 54 persen cenderung untuk menunda pembelian pada produk cina dan menunggu waktu dan dana yang tepat untuk lebih memilih produk non cina. (4) masyarakat juga lebih meyakini bahwa berbagai produk impor asal cina cukup mampu mengancam keberadaan produk lokal. sekitar 75 persen masyarakat purwokerto menganggap produk cina berpotensi untuk menurunkan daya saing produk lokal. (5) meskipun responden meyakini adanya potensi ancaman dari produk cina terhadap produk lokal, masyarakat masih bersedia untuk melakukan transaksi pembelian pada produk asal cina. alasan yang paling mendominasi adalah faktor harga. sekitar 76 persen masyarakat membeli produk cina karena harganya yang lebih murah. demikian pula faktor ketersediaannya, sekitar 63 persen masyarakat memilih produk cina karena cenderung mudah diperoleh di pasar. alasan lainnya adalah produk cina lebih menarik dari produk lokal (51 persen) dan ketersediaannya yang lebih bervariasi (52,5 persen). sementara untuk faktor kualitas mendapatkan respons berbeda di mana mayoritas masyarakat menyatakan faktor kualitas bukan menjadi alasan untuk memilih produk cina. (6) komoditas lain asal cina yang cukup tinggi preferensinya adalah elektronika jenis barang komunikasi dan audio/video. sekitar 52,5 persen responden cenderung memilih produk cina untuk alat telekomunikasi dan sekitar 51,0 persen responden cenderung memilih produk perangkat audio/video. observasi lapangan memperlihatkan alat komunikasi terutama telepon genggam asal cina makin banyak beredar di pasar. departemen perdagangan juga memublikasikan dari januari sampai juli 2010 terdapat tambahan merek baru dengan dominasi asal cina lebih dari 30 merek telepon genggam. dengan variasi produk, pemasaran dan distribusi produk yang makin luas, harga lebih terjangkau, fasilitas tools serupa merek jepang/barat, serta iklan produk yang gencar telah membuat produk handphone jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 12, nomor 1, april 2011: 13-26 20 asal cina makin mengurangi dominasi pasar komoditas sejenis asal jepang atau barat. demikian pula perangkat audio/video, masyarakat semakin mudah mengakses komoditas ini. (7) beberapa jenis komoditas elektronik asal cina terlihat kurang mendapat preferensi tinggi dari masyarakat purwokerto. hal ini diperlihatkan oleh preferensi minor dari responden pada komoditas elektronik untuk jenis komputer, peralatan dapur serta elektronik lainnya. meskipun untuk produk komputer asal cina makin variatif, posisi produk sejenis non-cina masih mendominasi dan cenderung lebih dipilih oleh konsumen. pada peralatan elektronik untuk dapur, seperti mesin cuci dan mesin pendingin, dominasi di pasar masih terlihat pada produk merek jepang dan korea selatan. demikian pula untuk produk elektronika rumah tangga lainnya, seperti pendingin ruang, pilihan masyarakat lebih cenderung pada merek non-cina, seperti merek jepang dan korea selatan. faktor yang mempengaruhi preferensi dari 5 jenis komoditas yang diteliti, dengan memasukkan 8 variabel tak tergantung terhadap preferensi produk cina dapat diketahui tidak semua variabel tersebut memberikan dampak yang konsisten secara teoritis. pada jenis komoditas telekomunikasi, kenaikan faktor harga mendorong meningkatnya preferensi konsumen. dengan banyaknya ragam produk telekomunikasi, masyarakat menghadapi banyak pilihan untuk menentukan keputusannya melakukan pembelian atau tidak. harga komoditas ini untuk merek asal cina pada umumnya sudah cukup rendah dan lebih rendah dari produk-produk substitusinya dari merek non-cina. sebagian produk cina ini juga memiliki harga kurang dari setengah produk non-cina meskipun diklaim memiliki teknologi yang sama. jika terdapat komoditas cina yang lebih tinggi dari rata-rata harga komoditas serupa merek cina, produk tersebut memiliki spesifikasi dan teknologi yang lebih baik dari rata-rata produk. karena itu, sedikit kenaikan harga pada produk cina ini dari harga rataratanya dianggap konsumen memiliki kelebihan dan merupakan alternatif yang lebih baik daripada membeli merek cina pada harga ratarata. hal ini juga berlaku untuk jenis komoditas komputer, peralatan dapur dan elektronik lainnya. tabel 1 memperlihatkan besaran parameter (positif atau negatif) dari variabel-varaiabel yang yang mempengaruhi preferensi masyarakat pada komoditas asal cina. pada sisi pendapatan, pada umumnya barang normal memiliki ciri kenaikan pendapatan akan mendorong kenaikan permintaan atau preferensi. pada komoditas asal cina, pendekatan teoritis ini berlaku untuk semua jenis komoditas tahan lama kecuali peralatan elektronika untuk dapur jenis komoditas ini dari sisi pendapatan dapat digolongkan sebagai barang inferior. untuk peralatan elektronik dapur, masyarakat cenderung akan beralih ke produk non-cina jika mengetahui terdapat kenaikan harga. dari pengurutan atau peringkat variabel yang memberikan kontribusi penting pada preferensi produk cina. tabel 2 menunjukkan pemeringkatan tersebut. dengan pemeringkatan ini dapat diketahui bagaimana preferensi sebenarnya masyarakat pada suatu produk. tabel 1. dampak variabel bebas pada preferensi variabel audio/video telekomunikasi komputer alat dapur lainnya harga – +* + ** + + pendapatan + + + – + citra produk + + + + – manfaat + – – + ** – pelayanan + * – + + + * kelas sosial – + + – ** – * karakter – – – – – psikologi + +* + + ** + * * signifikan pada tingkat kesalahan ( = 5%) ** signifikan pada tingkat kesalahan ( = 10%) preferensi masyarakat pada komoditas (rakhmat priyono) 21 jika, misalnya, harga menjadi pertimbangan utama dalam memilih produk maka upaya kebijakan harga menjadi prioritas paling utama dalam manajemen pemasaran industri dalam negeri pada komoditas tersebut. pada komoditas audio/video diketahui faktor pelayanan menjadi prioritas utama pada preferensi konsumen, selanjutnya adalah faktor manfaat dan harga. masyarakat memilih produk ini terutama karena aspek ketersediaan purna jual seperti kemudahan mengakses komponen pendukung atau produk komplemennya. demikian pula, jika masyarakat melihat manfaat dari penggunaan produk ini meningkat maka preferensinya akan makin tinggi. selain itu, faktor harga memiliki peran penting. penurunan harga produk akan mendorong kenaikan preferensi. pada komoditas peralatan telekomunikasi, faktor utama yang mendorong preferensi masyarakat adalah faktor psikologis. meskipun pada awal munculnya produk telekomunikasi cina dianggap sebagai barang alternatif kedua, pada saat ini masyarakat semakin yakin dengan pilihannya. tingginya diferensiasi produk cina dari sisi teknologi maupun pilihan ragam alternatif penggunaannya serta banyaknya produk di pasaran mendorong efek psikologis konsumen bahwa produk ini semakin layak untuk dikonsumsi. untuk komoditas komputer, faktor harga menjadi faktor paling penting yang memberikan pengaruh pada perubahan preferensi. dengan makin banyaknya merek perangkat komputer dan harga yang makin terjangkau, konsumen melihat pada saat ini perangkat komputer bukan merupakan produk yang terlalu istimewa. kenaikan harga pada produk ini cenderung disebabkan oleh pengembangan produk dan perbaikan teknologi. konsumen memiliki preferensi jika mendapatkan produk dengan harga yang sedikit lebih tinggi mereka akan mendapatkan manfaat yang lebih besar dari penggunaan produk ini. selain itu dari deskripsi sebelumnya terdapat kecenderungan masyarakat tidak terlalu mampu membedakan antara perangkat komputer asal cina dengan non-cina. dengan demikian pada produk komputer tersebut dapat dianggap tidak terlalu terdapat perbedaan antara produk asal cina dengan non-cina. dari sisi ini, masyarakat juga memiliki preferensi akan memperoleh manfaat yang lebih besar jika memilih produk perangkat komputer dengan harga yang lebih tinggi. beberapa situasi ini menyebabkan faktor harga perangkat komputer memberikan dampak positif pada preferensi masyarakat. pada perangkat elektronik untuk dapur, faktor paling berpengaruh pada preferensi masyarakat penggunanya adalah sisi psikologi. semakin tinggi keyakinan masyarakat untuk membeli produk ini maka preferensinya akan semakin naik. untuk komoditas elektronik jenis lainnya faktor pelayanan menjadi faktor utama yang memberikan dampak pada perubahan preferensi. masyarakat melihat jika terdapat perbaikan akses untuk mendapatkan pelayanan purna jual seperti garansi maupun ketersediaan produk pengganti dan komponen komplemennya, preferensi masyarakat akan meningkat. realitasnya adalah sampai saat ini untuk jenis produk cina ini masih terbatas layanan purna jualnya. hasil estimasi regresi tersebut mengindikasikan jika layanan purna jual dari produk cina tersebut sebaik layanan purna jual produk tabel 2. peringkat berdasar tingkat signifikansi variabel bebas variabel audio/video telekomunikasi komputer alat dapur lainnya harga 3 2 1 4 6 pendapatan 6 5 6 5 4 citra produk 8 6 8 8 7 manfaat 2 8 7 2 5 pelayanan 1 3 5 7 1 kelas sosial 7 7 4 3 2 karakter 5 4 3 6 8 psikologi 4 1 2 1 3 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 12, nomor 1, april 2011: 13-26 22 non-cina, terdapat kecenderungan minat masyarakat akan meningkat pada produk cina tersebut. simpulan kemampuan daya saing produk domestik dapat ditentukan dari sisi konsumennya. jika preferensi konsumen pada produk domestik rendah jika dibandingkan dengan produk impor maka konsumen dalam negeri akan meninggalkan produk domestik. konsumen akan lebih memilih produk impor. dengan demikian pengukuran daya tahan produk domestik dapat diukur dari seberapa besar preferensi permintaan masyarakat pada produk asing dan domestik. dengan fokus pada sisi permintaan masyarakat domestik, penelitian ini akan menguji preferensi masyarakat purwokerto pada komoditas asal cina. secara umum, masyarakat purwokerto cukup mampu membedakan antara produk impor asal cina dengan produk non-cina. untuk setiap jenis komoditas yang diteliti, masyarakat paling mampu membedakan antara komoditas elektronik komunikasi asal cina. mereka juga tidak terlalu skeptis pada perilakunya untuk memilih produk asal cina. hal ini terbukti dari kecenderungan yang cukup besar untuk memilih produk cina ketika produk substitusinya tidak tersedia. di sisi lain, masyarakat lebih meyakini bahwa berbagai produk impor asal cina cukup mampu mengancam keberadaan produk lokal. hasil penelusuran untuk setiap komoditas yang diteliti ditemukan variasi preferensi. preferensi produk cina yang cukup tinggi terutama untuk peralatan elektronika telekomunikasi (termasuk telematika) serta elektronik audio/ video. sebaliknya, masyarakat cenderung memberikan preferensi yang lebih tinggi pada produk non-cina untuk komoditas elektronik jenis komputer dan elektronika untuk rumah tangga. dari delapan variabel yang diuji untuk mengukur perubahan preferensi masyarakat pada komoditas asal cina. satu hal yang menarik, preferensi dari sebagian besar komoditas yang diteliti cenderung dipengaruhi oleh faktor psikologis. faktor ini memberikan dampak positif pada preferensi dan penting terutama untuk komoditas telekomunikasi, elektronik dapur dan elektronik jenis lainnya. hal ini mengindikasikan masyarakat cenderung memilih ketika memutuskan untuk mengonsumsi produk cina, dalam arti memiliki berbagai pertimbangan ketika akan membeli produk asal cina. jika mereka telah cukup yakin dengan pilihannya mereka baru bersedia untuk membelinya. implikasi dari hal ini adalah masyarakat cukup rasional dan keputusan konsumsinya pada komoditas asal cina memerlukan pertimbangan tertentu. analisis preferensi komoditas produk cina ini mengambil sudut pandang mikro tentang bagaimana reaksi konsumen terhadap pilihan komoditasnya. aspek kebijakan yang lebih tepat adalah kebijakan dengan sasaran bagaimana mengarahkan preferensi masyarakat untuk lebih tertarik pada produk lokal. karena itu, pemerintah perlu mengupayakan berbagai upaya untuk mempertahankan preferensi masyarakat pada komoditas lokal atau domestik tetap terjaga. beberapa kebijakan umum terkait dengan acfta yang perlu dilakukan di antaranya adalah: (1) meningkatkan kapasitas dan kualitas infrastruktur untuk mendorong tetap bertahannya industri lokal maupun joint venture sekaligus menarik minat investasi langsung, (2) mengamankan pasar dalam negeri di antaranya melalui kebijakan yang terkait dengan kemudahan administrasi dan birokrasi, (3) mendorong keterkaitan antarindustri untuk menciptakan produk unggulan yang lebih diminati masyarakat dan mampu menekan harga, (4) peningkatan kapasitas teknologi termasuk pula mendorong hubungan kerja sama dengan lembaga pendidikan tinggi dalam penciptaan teknologi terbarukan serta meningkatkan kemampuan transfer teknologi berbasis r&d di dalam negeri, (5) meningkatkan penerapan standarisasi (sni) komponen termasuk safety standard untuk melindungi eksistensi industri dalam negeri, dan (6) membudayakan masyarakat untuk mencintai produk dalam negeri di antaranya melalui promosi dan periklanan, serta memasukannya dalam kurikulum pendidikan sekolah. preferensi masyarakat pada komoditas (rakhmat priyono) 23 daftar pustaka bank indonesia. 2010. survei konsumen di purwokerto. purwokerto: kantor bank indonesia. departemen perdagangan ri. 2008. rencana strategik departemen perdagangan tahun 2004-2009. jakarta: departemen perdagangan. direktorat jenderal industri alat transportasi dan elektronika. 2008. roadmap 2025 industri elektronika. jakarta: direktorat jenderal industri alat transportasi dan elektronika. gujarati, damodar n. 2003. basic econometrics, international edition. new york: mcgraw hill companies, inc. kadin. 2009. butir-butir pemikiran perdagangan indonesia 2009-2014. jakarta: kamar dagang dan industri (kadin). kadin. 2009. sumbangsih pemikiran dunia usaha di indonesia untuk pemerintah republik indonesia masa bakti 2009-2014. jakarta: kamar dagang dan industri (kadin). kotler, philip. 2000. marketing management analysis; planning, implementation, and control, 10th edition. new jersey: prenticehall inc. kuncoro, mudrajad. 2004. metode kuantita-tif, teori dan aplikasi untuk bisnis dan ekonomi, edisi kedua. yogyakarta: upp amp ykpn. setneg republik indonesia. 2010. acfta sebagai tantangan menuju perekono-mian yang kompetitif. www.setneg.co.id, diakses 07 april 2010 media data riset. 2010. studi tentang: bisnis otomotif indonesia di tengah persaingan pasar regional 2010, januari 2010. jakarta: mediadata riset. spss inc. 1999. manual references: spss for windows release 10.0.5 (27 nov 1999) standard version. usa: spss inc. statsoft corp. 2001. statistica 6.0 manual references. usa: tulsa. usaid dan snada. 2008. analisis kebijakankebijakan terpilih departemen perindustrian indonesia. usaid dan senada, maret 2008. wef. 2008. the global competitiveness report 2008-2009. world economic forum. wilkie, william l. 1994. consumer behavior, third edition. new york: john wiley & sons inc. lampiran elektronik: audio/video variabel b s.e. wald df sig. harga -0,1147003 0,0847049 1,8336324 1 0,1756991 pendapat 0,2392049 0,2722520 0,7719658 1 0,3796096 citra 0,0075639 0,1122175 0,0045433 1 0,9462602 manfaat 0,1333424 0,0874292 2,3260724 1 0,1272225 layanan 0,2071877 0,1051838 3,8799856 1 0,0488650 kelas -0,0676950 0,1483454 0,2082400 1 0,6481504 karakter -0,2497888 0,2494872 1,0024200 1 0,3167257 psikolog 0,1173622 0,1120020 1,0980061 1 0,2947041 constant -0,8219182 0,6000505 1,8762110 1 0,1707654 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 12, nomor 1, april 2011: 13-26 24 hosmer and lemeshow test chi-square df sig. 7,11779053 8 0,52397901 omnibus tests of model coefficients chi-square df sig. step 21,0453712 8 0,00702788 block 21,0453712 8 0,00702788 model 21,0453712 8 0,00702788 model summary -2 log likeli cox & snell nagelkerke r square 256,133496 0,0998797 0,13319069 elektronik: telekomunikasi variabel b s.e. wald df sig. harga 0,1855098 0,0832479 4,9657822 1 0,0258536 pendapat 0,2294522 0,2711499 0,7160866 1 0,3974306 citra 0,0815733 0,1109634 0,5404270 1 0,4622558 manfaat -0,0026737 0,0897949 0,0008866 1 0,9762463 layanan -0,1389820 0,1060639 1,7170454 1 0,1900738 kelas 0,0471653 0,1495671 0,0994426 1 0,7524995 karakter -0,2883109 0,2480631 1,3508206 1 0,2451347 psikolog 0,2755665 0,1101805 6,2552283 1 0,0123827 constant -1,2671425 0,6087173 4,3333086 1 0,0373735 hosmer and lemeshow test chi-square df sig. 8,75255688 8 0,36359815 omnibus tests of model coefficients chi-square df sig. step 22,5504664 8 0,00399198 block 22,5504664 8 0,00399198 model 22,5504664 8 0,00399198 model summary -2 log likeli cox & snell nagelkerke r square 254,208197 0,10662811 0,14228958 preferensi masyarakat pada komoditas (rakhmat priyono) 25 elektronik: komputer variabel b s.e. wald df sig. harga 0,162248 0,086851 3,489882 1 0,061745 pendapat 0,131669 0,302156 0,189891 1 0,663007 citra 0,014647 0,125679 0,013582 1 0,907223 manfaat -0,021403 0,097506 0,048183 1 0,826255 layanan 0,059269 0,118482 0,250239 1 0,616907 kelas 0,086235 0,161636 0,284635 1 0,593679 karakter -0,173883 0,279642 0,386644 1 0,534069 psikolog 0,188011 0,133184 1,992801 1 0,158048 constant -2,489142 0,735217 11,462216 1 0,000710 hosmer and lemeshow test chi-square df sig. 10,4555498 8 0,23449586 omnibus tests of model coefficients chi-square df step 13,4161434 8 0,09831103 block 13,4161434 8 0,09831103 model 13,4161434 8 0,09831103 model summary -2 log likeli cox & snell nagelkerke r square 215,806623 0,06488028 0,0951142 elektronik: dapur variabel b s.e. wald df sig. harga 0,05850165 0,08388055 0,48642251 1 0,48552749 pendapat -0,17211787 0,29589523 0,33835762 1 0,56077877 citra 0,00117177 0,10675529 0,00012048 1 0,99124243 manfaat 0,15330385 0,08658162 3,13512348 1 0,07662258 layanan 0,01333471 0,10460779 0,01624947 1 0,89856571 kelas -0,27577268 0,1575698 3,06306731 1 0,08009035 karakter -0,08875535 0,2565332 0,11970214 1 0,72935777 psikolog 0,19313607 0,10498842 3,38410644 1 0,06582785 constant -1,14913243 0,63642047 3,26025731 1 0,0709780 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 12, nomor 1, april 2011: 13-26 26 hosmer and lemeshow test chi-square df sig. 16,3991055 8 0,03701115 omnibus tests of model coefficients chi-square df sig step 22,6325357 8 0,0038695 block 22,6325357 8 0,0038695 model 22,6325357 8 0,0038695 model summary -2 log likeli cox & snell nagelkerke r square 248,110883 0,10699462 0,14425174 elektronika lain variabel b s.e. wald df sig. harga 0,09381239 0,09724828 0,93058614 1 0,33471066 pendapat 0,42406171 0,32861264 1,66528899 1 0,19689073 citra -0,09026093 0,14016185 0,41470565 1 0,51959072 manfaat -0,13363183 0,1255599 1,13270788 1 0,28719848 layanan 0,29621729 0,12849378 5,3144286 1 0,02114953 kelas -0,4454776 0,20740049 4,61351783 1 0,0317209 karakter -0,11616418 0,30208144 0,14787555 1 0,70057388 psikolog 0,30848061 0,15556281 3,93227807 1 0,04736774 constant -2,32944254 0,78389684 8,83051805 1 0,00296234 hosmer and lemeshow test chi-square df sig. 9,23242495 8 0,32307001 omnibus tests of model coefficients chi-square df step 26,7493006 8 0,000781 block 26,7493006 8 0,000781 model 26,7493006 8 0,000781 model summary -2 log likeli cox & snell nagelkerke r square 186,516236 0,1251882 0,19091439 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 22 nomor 1, april 2021 article type: research paper value-added, energy, and technologycapital in central java industries setyo tri wahyudi1* and darmawan1 abstract: nowadays, many industries do not depend on labor intensive, but have transformed to rely on intensive technology. industry is considered potential strategy to raise value-added for its effort to alter raw or intermediate goods to finished goods. in this study, value-added approach is used to measure the role of technology capital and energy. a lot of work has been done analyzing restricted variables in single study, but there is still a significant gap where research did not determine differences between measures. this paper aims to discuss the similarities of many technology – capital and energy related variables in central java industries and analyzes their profile change to regional value-added from 2007 to 2017. data related to technology – capital and energy are collected from statistics indonesia (badan pusat statistik). the variables are examined using exploration factor analysis, multiple linear regression, and cluster analysis. the result shows that the energy consumption has the greatest effect on value-added rising during the study period, while technology capital does not. hence, policymaker should maintain the availability of energy for industries. then, except for kudus regency and semarang municipality, policymaker should pay attention to the growth of value-added of the entire regions. keywords: value-added; energy; technology; capital; spatial; industry jel classification: e23, j24 introduction it is widely accepted in whole countries that the development in the industrial sector is the potential strategic development. that is because the process raises value-added, converting raw or intermediate materials into finished products. furthermore, the industrial sector is considered competitive and often associated with rapid economic growth. in indonesia, not only is the manufacturing industry the main driving force behind the sustainable and rapid economic growth, but also the national economic structure's pillar industry. for example, in 2007, ratio of industrial sector to gross domestic product (gdp) is 27.01 percent and in 2017, the sector of industry contributes 20.16 percent or 13,588.8 trillion to gdp. it is a fantastic percentage. even in 2015, indonesia's industrial contribution to gdp was the fourth largest in the world. hence, the growth strategy of the manufacturing sector must be within a strategy context. it should place the priority of industrial sector growth in a concentrated manner on high productivity and high competitiveness industries (anggriawan, maskie, & syafitri, 2019). affiliation: 1 department of economics, faculty of economics and business, universitas brawijaya, east java, indonesia *correspondence: setyo.tw@ub.ac.id this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v22i1.8926 citation: wahyudi, s.t., & darmawan, d. (2021). value-added, energy, and technology-capital in central java industries. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 22(1), 75-88. article history received: 31 may 2020 revised: 01 july 2020 14 aug 2020 18 sep 2020 accepted: 19 jan 2021 https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorid=57191995110 https://ie.feb.ub.ac.id/id/ https://ie.feb.ub.ac.id/id/ https://ie.feb.ub.ac.id/id/ https://ie.feb.ub.ac.id/id/ mailto:setyo.tw@ub.ac.id http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/8926 https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v22i1.8926&domain=pdf wahyudi & darmawan value-added, energy and technology-capital in central java industries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 76 most industries today do not depend on labor intensive, but they have transformed to rely on intensive technology. the growth brought by technological change is sustainable as technology is focused on innovation, such as scientific development and accumulation of knowledge (kapelko & abbott, 2015; liu et al., 2015) where the rule of decreasing marginal utility does not apply at all. this is also a sign of increased marginal utility. even though the adoption of digital technology has raised concern about the way it will transform the productivity and employment (camiña, díaz-chao, & torrent-sellens, 2020). there are several benefits obtained by the implementation of technology in industry, particularly advancements from machinery and other equipment. products can for example be massively produced in a short time. as a result, industries could significantly raise their total value-added. however, there is any interesting finding from the study muchdie and nurrasyidin (2019) about the relationship between technological progress and human development. they found that the impact of technological progress on human development is negative, both direct and indirect. in a transition from labor to capital-intensive industries, the manufacturing sector has undergone structural change (whang, 2019). hamidi and elida (2018) does research related to value-added and labor. even though labor is ample physically, it will not be cheap economically. as a result, promoting the growth of labor intensive production would thus be extremely difficult (grabowski, 2016). moreover, al-thani et al. (2018) says that the development of smart technology has contributed to some of the sustainability ideas to be reconsidered. like low density cities can become both sustainable and livable, providing the framework for a sustainable town. a different study such wang et al. (2020) analyzes the driving impact of the industry growth drivers. it shows that the factor of production was the first and foremost driver of growth, but its driving impact was confronted with a rigorous labor driven challenge. the regional factor production offers obvious spatial correlation and heterogeneity without a fairly stable pattern of space. the competitiveness of the industry in all regions is significantly influenced by the economic climate, the structure of industrial organizations and the technological level. the framework of industrial organization exerts the various effects on the productivity of different regions (chen et al., 2017). meanwhile, technology somehow is related to energy consumption. unconventional machining (ucm) processes are typically energy-intensive and used mainly for processing materials with high-quality specifications. in response to the new machining strategy of energy-saving and emission reduction, zheng et al., (2020) shows that the energy conservation and emission reduction approaches in unconventional machining have focused mainly on machine tool design optimization, process modeling and optimization, and controlling demand. geng and cui (2020) combines the analytical approaches of economics and geography, and takes data from the companies listed in the energy conservation and environmental protection industries. instead, from the environmental protection viewpoint, they examine the spatial variability of the performance of industrial capital allocation and its motivating factors. the results show that there is a pattern of growing uncertainty in the capital allocation performance of the chinese energy conservation and environmental protection industry. environmental regulation and infrastructure have a substantial wahyudi & darmawan value-added, energy and technology-capital in central java industries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 77 positive impact on the efficiency of regional capital allocation, and improve other drivers influence and spatial heterogeneity. dilaver and hunt (2011) forecasts future demand for industrial energy, the relationship between industrial energy use, industrial value-added and electricity prices. the findings indicate that production and real electricity prices and an underlying energy demand pattern all play an important role in driving the market for turkish industrial power. while balogun and mativenga (2013) track the visibility and process dependence of energy and carbon footprint in machining process through a new mathematical model and logic that predict direct electrical energy requirements in machining toolpaths. further, yustisia and sugiyanto (2014) investigate the existence of environmental kuznets curve (ekc) according to development level and energy orientation, such as consumption of energy, export of energy, import of energy, and share of renewable energy consumption over the period 1991-2010 and found that renewable energy has an important role for sustainable development. budzianowski (2012) concludes that the most attractive synergies between energy technologies and value-added management were found in the following area: (i) soil fertilization (sustainable agriculture), (ii) the use of co2 to enhance biomass growth, (iii) simultaneous (bio)-chemicals and fuels production and (iv) the enhancement of oil and natural gas recovery. furthermore, yao and cheng (2015) says energy is an important material basis for national economy's sustainable development and raising the living standards of the people. many researchers try finding a method that is highly accurate in forecasting energy consumption of industry. however, in indonesia cases, prishardoyo and sebayang (2013) examined the relationship between economic growth in central java province with the quality of the environment through people perception. they found that most people are not bothered by the decline in the quality of the environment, especially air quality so that the use of vehicles is increasing. another finding is that low public participation in managing the environment around where they live, especially for people who are directly affected economy activities. in accordance with value-added, kalu et al. (2019) and abokyi et al. (2018) explores whether there is any relationship between energy consumption and value-added agricultural and industrial sectors as well as the nigerian economy's overall growth rate. the finding is there is a very strong evidence of the existence of a long-run relationship between energyconsumption and indicators of economic growth. there is clear evidence that economic growth and agricultural value-added respond to the shocks and dynamics of the energy consumption studied, although the value-added of production proved otherwise. oppositely ghaderi, azadeh, and mohammadzadeh (2006) finds that electricity consumption does not add any value to most industries in iran. on the contrary, for marxists, backwardness emerges failure to apply modernisation theory. the process of development and underdevelopment are purely formal and ahistorical. future societies will not replicate the paths of other societies in the past. the underdevelopment has taken place within global context of capitalist accumulation and dependence for the periphery economies (amin, 1975). furthermore, there is no wahyudi & darmawan value-added, energy and technology-capital in central java industries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 78 presumption that capital goods industries will be capital-intensive. there is no presumption that appropriate products will employ appropriate technology. it may therefore not be possible to classify any particular technique as inappropriate, because it may be appropriate in some respects, inappropriate in others (stewart, 1978) previous research investigates only a limited number of variables in a single study. budzianowski (2012) as an example, conducts a study in response to energy technology and value added. hamidi and elida (2018) provide deep understanding between valueadded and labor. in addition, zheng et al. (2020) reveal related technology to energy consumption. geng and cui (2020) examine spatial variability of the industrial capital performance and environmental protection. camiña et al. (2020) analyze the links between automation technologies, productivity and long-term jobs using a panel of data analysis. meanwhile, dilaver and hunt (2011) forecast future demand for industrial energy by using the relationship among industrial energy use, industrial value-added and electricity prices. based on the previous research, there is still a large gap where research only use one variable to represent one measure. this paper uses several variables to determine one measure and then examine differences between measures. the measures would be technology capital and energy. the novelty of the research, this study explores similarities of several variables related to technology capital and energy in central java industries and analyzes their profile shift to value-addedon a regional level from 2007 to 2017. the finding includes significant contributions to the development economics literature and offers valuable information for policymakers. research method in this study, we use data from central java industries on value-added, value of gasoline, value of fuel oil, purchased electricity, purchase/addition and construction/major repairs of land, building, machinery and equipment, vehicles and other fixed capital. details are taken from publication of statistics indonesia-badan pusat statistik (bps), namely statistics of medium and large manufacturing industry in central java. we use the data from 2007 and 2017 publications. the cases are based on 35 regions/municipalities in central java. since there are lots of variables in this study, measurement and interpretation will be more complex than if the variable is less. that’s why we are going to simplify the variables in the first place. then, regarding value-added of industries in central java, we are going to analyze the impact of various factors in 2007 and 2017. next, value-added spatial mapping relating to both factors is compared between 2007 and 2017. therefore, this study use statistical measures as follows: exploratory factor analysis the factor model is basically inspired by the following argument, namely assuming variables can be grouped by their correlations. that is, assume that all variables within a given group are strongly correlated with each other, but relatively small correlations with wahyudi & darmawan value-added, energy and technology-capital in central java industries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 79 variables in other groups. factor analysis can be considered an extension of principal component analysis (johnson & wichern, 2007). the main purpose of factor analysis are data summarization and data reduction. data summarization describes the relationship between variables through a correlation check. if the correlation is made between the variables of the analysis, it is called an analysis of the factor r. nevertheless, if a correlation is made between respondents or sample analysis, it is called q factor analysis, which is often popularly referred to cluster analysis. meanwhile, data reduction means creating a new set of variables called a factor to replace a certain number of variables after a connection is created. exploratory factor analysis begins with assessing good variables and then factoring and rotating. once the factors have been rotated and interpreted, we can measure the factor scores, another aspect of the study. factor scores are linear combinations of the elements and can be used in subsequent research as independent variables (cleff, 2019; mooi, sarstedt & mooi-reci, 2018). multiple linear regression the numbers in the newly formed factors, namely energy factor as well as technology capital factor, are a composite of the related origin variables. hence, those factors can be used in regression analysis to examine the value-added in 2007 and 2017 due to energy as well as technology capital impact. the equation for each model is as follows: y = 𝛽0 + 𝛽1𝐹𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟1 + 𝛽2𝐹𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟2 + ⋯𝛽𝑛𝐹𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑛 + ε where y= value-added, 𝛽0 = intercept, 𝛽n = regression coefficient of n-th factor, 𝐹𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑛 = summarization of several variable n-th. to check robustness of multiple linear regression, we conduct the homoscedastisity test and normality test. homoscedasticity means that the variance of error or disturbance must be the same for each of the explanatory variable value. violation of homoscedaticity implies that we cannot trust statistical result. normality has a meaning that residuals are normally distributed. violation of normal form indicates that there is outlier in residual. in this study, breusch-pagan test will check homoscedasticity, while shapiro-wilk test will investigate normality in the model. clustering with k-means method k-means is a non-hierarchical data clustering method that attempts to partition existing data into one or more clusters or groups, so that data that has the same characteristics (high intra class similarity) is grouped into one same cluster, and data which have different characteristics (low inter class similarity) are grouped in other groups. this model provides precise distribution from multivariate perspective (battisti & parmeter, 2013). in this study, there are 3 clustered to be determined. we try examining the highest cluster with value-added, the medium cluster of value-added, and the cluster of the lowest one. wahyudi & darmawan value-added, energy and technology-capital in central java industries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 80 result and discussion modelling factor based on the result obtained from kaiser-meyer olkin measure of sampling adequacy, the existing variables, namely gasoline value, fuel oil value, electricity, purchase/addition and construction/major repairs of land, building, machinery and equipment, vehicles and other fixed capital, are able to be predicted and analyzed by using exploratory factor analysis. the results of the conducted factor analysis by using principal component method confirm that the initial eight items can be reduced without a significant loss of information. then the mapping result of eigen value vector (y-axis) versus the component associated with it (x-axis) indicates the number of factors can be formed. figure 1. demonstrates the scree plot suggesting that there are two loading factors should be established. it is shown by how many components located at or above the red line (y=1). figure 1 determining the number of factor loading source: data processed the component matrix resulting from the rotation process reveals clearer and more significant distribution of variables. it is obvious because there is no noticeable ambiguity between loading factor 1 and loading factor 2. the difference between both factors is obviously seen as rotation converges the forming of factors. the correlation between gasoline and factor 2 is 0.62 (strong). contrastly, the correlation between gasoline and factor 1 is weak. as a result, gasoline is included in factor 2. next, electricity is included in factor 2 as its loading factor is the largest. likewise, fuel oil is included in factor 2 because its correlation to factor 2 is the greatest. meanwhile, other variables such as purchase/addition and construction/major repairs of land, building, machinery and equipment, vehicles and other fixed capital are included in factor 1 as their correlations are great at factor 1. wahyudi & darmawan value-added, energy and technology-capital in central java industries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 81 table 1 rotated factor loadings (pattern matrix) and unique variances variable factor 1 factor 2 uniqueness gasoline 0.1500 0.6156 0.5985 electricity 0.3376 0.5760 0.5543 fuel oil 0.0726 0.6176 0.6133 machine 0.7504 0.5744 0.1070 land 0.9827 0.0390 0.0328 building 0.9840 0.1436 0.0111 vehicle 0.8379 0.4782 0.0692 other_fixed 0.6807 -0.1002 0.5266 source: data processed hence, the eight variables are grouped into two factors after they have been factored, rotated, and checked. they form two new factors because the covariance relationships among variables in terms of a few underlying, but unobservable, random quantities (johnson & wichern, 2007). we call the first factor as energy factor, consisting of the value of fuel oil, the value of gasoline, and electricity. while, the second factor is known as technology-capital factor that consists of machine, vehicle, building, land, and other capital. furthermore, we gain composite score from each factor which is important for subsequent analysis. we are going to use each factor as independent variable in further analysis. figure 2 variables of industries in central java after factoring and rotation source: data processed relationship between value-added, energy, and technologycapital 2007-2017 the values in the newly developed factors, namely energy and technology capital factor are combination of the associated variables of origin. furthermore, with these values, we assess the value-added in 2007 and 2017 by regression. the equation is as follows: 𝑙𝑛_𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 − 𝐴𝑑𝑑𝑒𝑑 = 𝛽0 + 𝛽1𝑇𝑒𝑐ℎ𝑛𝑜𝑙𝑜𝑔𝑦_𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑙 + 𝛽2𝐸𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑔𝑦 + ε wahyudi & darmawan value-added, energy and technology-capital in central java industries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 82 both energy factor and technology capital factor are capable of explaining the valueadded variance of central java industries by 24 per cent. it has the meaning that approximately 76 percent variance of value-added is determined by other explanatories beyond the model. the result shows that a rise in the usage of energy would significantly increase the central java’s value-added of industries. meanwhile, technology – capital factor is not significant statistically in the model. stewart (1978) notes that the underdeveloped industrial sectors are unable to pursue an alternate path. not only because the world economic facts of life make it impossible, but because the cultural, psychological and economic pressures of dependent relationship have shaped policy makers in third world countries. hence, they do not wish to follow an alternative strategy. table 2 regression result (number of observation: 70) variables coefficient standard error t-statistics prob. cons 20.83381 0.18692 111.45 0.000 technology_capital 0.34772 0.18977 1.83 0.071 energy 0.84713 0.20563 4.12 0.000 r-squared 0.2386 adj r-squared 0.2159 f-statistics 10.500 prob. f 0.0001 source: data processed several methods are used to illustrate the assumption behind regression (table 2), such as homoscedasticity test and normality test. the homoscedasticity test using breuschpagan test is based on residual of regression and independent variable, and the result show that there is considered homoscedasticity in the model (the prob > chi2 is more than 0.05). it means that data vary within the same range of the average. next, shapiro-wilk test is used to examine normality of data show that the data can be assumed normally distributed (the value of prob > z, which is more than 0.05). it has a meaning that the mean, median, and data mode are generally the same. table 3 gauss-markov condition: heteroscedasticity and normality test shapiro-wilk w test for normal data variable obs w v z prob>z residual 70 0.99218 0.481 -1.590 0.94413 breusch-pagan/cook-weisberg test for heteroskedasticity ho constant variance variable fitted values of ln_valueadded chi2(1) 1.37 prob. > chi2 0.2426 source: data processed profiles of central java’s industries 2007-2017 there are three cluster groupings in 2007. the first group is only composed by kudus regency as seen on the graph. this regency has the largest amount of value-added, much wahyudi & darmawan value-added, energy and technology-capital in central java industries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 83 greater than the average value-added in central java’s industries. this only regency often uses energy more than other industries, and even higher than the provincially industrial average consumption. however, this group usage of technology capital factor is the lowest of two other groups. interestingly, kudus does not use much technology capital value to reach high value-added. the second group consists of thirty regencies/municipalities. the industries under this category typically have the value-added, technology-capital factor, and energy consumption less than provincial average. even though these industries utilize technology capital factor the most among three groups in 2007 the value-added they hit are the least among three groups. regency of pati, regency of sragen, municipality of semarang, and regency of pekalongan belong to the third group. their position in term of valueadded as well as the usage of energy factor is in the middle. meanwhile, their technology capital factor usage is slightly less than the second group. figure 3 map of value-added clusterisation in central java’s industries 2007 source: statistics indonesia-badan pusat statistik (bps) as for 2017, kudus regency still uses low technology capital factor. its technology capital factor is lower than the average provincial industrial usage and also the lowest among other regencies/municipalities. its consumption of energy is significantly lower than municipality of semarang, but slightly higher than that of other thirty-three regions. kudus regency, however, still persists on attaining the greatest value-added among other regencies/municipalities. municipality of semarang utilizes much more technology capital factor as well as energy than other regions in central java, but its value-added is still far behind kudus regency. semarang municipality’s technology capital factor and energy level is far more than provincial industry rate and also the highest among other regencies/municipalities in 2017. thirty-three regions/municipalities experience the lowest value-added in 2017. all areas in central java, except for kudus regency and municipality of semarang, belong to one pati blora cilacap brebes wonogiri grobogan tegal demak kebumen jepara kendal banyumas sragen boyolali rembang magelang pemalang batang semarang klatenpurworejo wonosobo pekalongan temanggung kudus purbalingga banjarnegara karanganyar sukoharjo kota semarang cilacap kota pekalongan kota tegal kota surakarta kota salatiga kota magelang wahyudi & darmawan value-added, energy and technology-capital in central java industries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 84 group with the lowest value-added and the lowest factor of energy. even though these regions have middle technology capital factor that is higher than kudus regency, they can’t surpass the value-added of kudus. figure 4 map of value-added clusterisation in central java’s industries 2017 source: statistics indonesia-badan pusat statistik (bps) past studies did not specify the differences between measures or investigated only a limited number of variables in a single study. the current study employed factor analysis to analyze similarities and variation in the constructs assessed via statistics of medium and large manufacturing industry in central java. a two-factor solution was defined to be the most appropriate for explaining these constructs, namely energy aspect (explaining the purchase and the use of gasoline, fuel oil, and electricity) and technology capital aspect (explaining the purchase/addition and construction/major repairs of land, building, machinery and equipment, vehicles and other fixed capital). therefore, the two factors identified in this paper has a variety of implication practices. we may try to determine the industrial value-added for a wide variety of aspects. interestingly, there is a balance, but a gap in central java’s industry behavior from 20072017 in value-added increase. in 2007, value-added of overall industries rely on the consumption of energy and technology capital use (abokyi et al., 2018). however, in 2017 energy consumption leads to value-added, but technology – capital does not. it is believed that in 2017, the technology capital used by industries are typically unconventional machine, hence energy-intensive and used mainly for processing materials with high quality specifications (zheng et al., 2020). furthermore from 2007 to 2017, we may analyze the driving factor of the industry value-added drivers. it shows that generally the factor of energy is the first and foremost driver of value-added. regionally, factor of energy and factor of technology capital offer clear spatial correlation and heterogeneity with a relatively stable pattern of space. it is a little bit different with previous study (chen et al., 2017). kudus regency is the area of industries that utilize much energy, but little technology capital, however has a large amount of pati blora cilacap brebes wonogiri grobogan tegal demak kebumen jepara kendal banyumas sragen boyolali rembang magelang pemalang batang semarang klatenpurworejo wonosobo pekalongan temanggung kudus purbalingga banjarnegara karanganyar sukoharjo kota semarang cilacap kota pekalongan kota tegal kota surakarta kota salatiga kota magelang wahyudi & darmawan value-added, energy and technology-capital in central java industries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 85 value-added. this regency still persists in two distinct phases of study, 2007 and 2017. there is no noticeable difference in this region after eleven years. in comparison, municipality of semarang, the regency of pati, regency of sragen, and regency of pekalongan use middle energy and technology capital in 2007 and reaches middle value-added among central java’s industries. next, only semarang municipality raises these factors to be the most in 2017. however, the value-added that semarang municipality provides is still far from kudus regency. meanwhile, many regencies in 2007 use technology – capital the most, but their value-added are the least ones. furthermore in 2017, even though these regions utilize technology capital factor more than kudus regency (that reaches the first position in value-added in 2017), the value-added they achieve is still the least. conclusion past studies did not specify the differences between measures or investigated only a limited number of variables in a single study. the current study employed factor analysis to analyze similarities and variation in the constructs assessed via statistics of medium and large manufacturing industry in central java. a two-factor solution was defined to be the most appropriate for explaining these constructs, namely energy aspect (explaining the purchase and the use of gasoline, fuel oil, and electricity) and technology capital aspect (explaining the purchase/addition and construction/major repairs of land, building, machinery and equipment, vehicles and other fixed capital). therefore, the two factors identified in this paper has a variety of implication practices. we may try to determine the industrial value-added for a wide variety of aspects. overall, industries in central java rely on the energy consumption instead of technologycapital. the most used energy is from gasoline, fuel oil, and electricity. in order to support industrial process, policy maker should maintain the existence of energy source because it helps industries to raise value-added. the process of underdevelopment of technologycapital use indicates the failure of applying modernization. this situation could result from failure of replicating the paths of other developed economy societies’ history or could be caused by strongly dependent relationship of policymaker, so that they do not wish to follow an alternative strategy (amin, 1975; stewart, 1978). to this circumstance, industries had better employ appropriate technology to appropriate product (stewart, 1978). even though semarang municipality has increased its technology – capital to be the largest, the highest value-added is reached by kudus regency with the lowest usage of technology-capital. if kudus regency raise its consumption on technology-capital, it might boost value-added much higher. likewise, despite other regencies (except for kudus and semarang) in central java experience the highest use of technology – capital, still kudus regency with highest usage of energy consumption achieve the largest value-added. if central java province's industrial growth is used as the backbone of its economic development, the measurement of performance in this research has to be focused on its wahyudi & darmawan value-added, energy and technology-capital in central java industries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 86 value added. all regions, except for kudus regency and semarang municipality need paying attention because their value-added are the lowest. these regencies also utilize small amount of energy consumption, which is below the average. so, policymakers should care of these regions. conversely, industrial development policies which obviously have no effect on that economic growth need to be checked 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(2020). science of the total environment sustainability of unconventional machining industry considering impact factors and reduction methods of energy consumption : a review and analysis. science of the total environment, 722. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137897 https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/1232 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137897 microsoft word 03-lesta jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 1, april 2013, hlm.18-25 identifikasi kualitas pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah bambang prishardoyo1, lesta karolina br sebayang2 1,2 fakultas ekonomi, universitas negeri semarang kampus sekaran gunungpati semarang 50229, indonesia, phone: +62 24 86458337 e-mail korespondensi: lesta.sebayang@gmail.com naskah diterima: agustus 2012; disetujui: februari 2013 abstract: management of local natural resources should be able to increase the opportunities for targeted area and an attractive investment destination. by gdrp of central java, the sectors that has high contributions are manufacturing sector and agricultural sector. in the industrial activities, the distribution of the resulting production of vehicles requiring any contribution of economic activity (especially industry) will lead to an increase in the number of motor vehicles. these conditions it will increase the amount of emissions produced from vehicle related to air pollution. this study aims at identifying the relationship between economic growth in central java province with the quality of the environment through people perception. the method used in this study is using descriptive statistical analysis in identifying the level of economic growth and environmental degradation. some of the findings and conclusions as follows: 1 ) most people are not bothered by the decline in the quality of the environment, especially air quality so that the use of vehicles is increasing. 2) low public participation in managing the environment around where they live , especially for people who are directly affected economy activities 3 ) laboratory test results show the water is very polluted conditions with allegations of some industries that dump waste into the river. keywords: industry; environmental quality; economic growth; environmental degradation jel classification: r11, q56 abstrak: pengelolaan potensi sumber daya alam daerah harus mampu meningkatkan peluang daerah untuk dijadikan target dan tujuan investasi yang menarik. berdasarkan pdrb jawa tengah, sektor yang memberikan kontribusi yang cukup tinggi adalah sektor industri pengolahan, sektor pertanian. pada kegiatan industri, distribusi produksi yang dihasilkan membutuhkan kendaraan bermotor ada kontribusi aktivitas ekonomi (adanya industri) akan memicu peningkatan jumlah kendaraan bermotor. kondisi tersebut maka akan meningkatkan jumlah emisi yang dihasilkan dari kendaraan bermotor yang berkaitan dengan polusi udara. tujuan pada studi ini adalah melakukan identifikasi keterkaitan antara pertumbuhan ekonomi di provinsi jawa tengah dengan kualitas lingkungan melalui persepsi masyarakat yang berdekatan dengan industri. metode yang digunakan dalam studi ini yaitu menggunakan analisis statistik deskriptif dalam mengidentifikasi pertumbuhan ekonomi dan tingkat kerusakan lingkungan. beberapa temuan dan kesimpulan sebagai berikut: 1) sebagian besar masyarakat tidak terganggu dengan penurunan kualitas lingkungan terutama kualitas udara sehingga penggunaan kendaraan bermotor jusru semakin meningkat. 2) rendahnya kepedulian masyarakat dalam mengelola lingkungan sekitar tempat tinggal terutama bagi masyarakat yang terkena dampak langsung dari ada kegiatan atau aktivitas ekonomi. 3) hasil uji laboratorium menunjukkan kondisi air sangat tercemar dengan dugaan adanya beberapa industri yang membuang limbah ke sungai. kata kunci: industri; kualitas lingkungan; pertumbuhan ekonomi; kerusakan lingkungan klasifikasi jel: r11, q56 identifikasi kualitas pertumbuhan ... (bambang prishardoyo, lesta karolina br sebayang) 19 pendahuluan kebijakan desentralisasi dan otonomi daerah merupakan peluang bagi pemerintah daerah di indonesia untuk melaksanakan serta membiayai sendiri kemajuan pembangunan di daerahnya masing-masing. selama pelaksanaannya telah banyak yang sudah dicapai namun masih banyak pula yang belum terpenuhi sesuai dengan tujuan pembangunan yaitu membangun masyarakat yang adil dan makmur serta pembangunan yang berkelanjutan. provinsi jawa tengah merupakan salah satu daerah otonom yang mengelola daerahnya dengan meningkatkan industri dan tetap menjaga sumberdaya yang dimiliki. hal ini terbukti dengan sektor industri pengolahan dan sektor pertanian yang memberikan kontribusi yang tinggi. provinsi jawa tengah memiliki aktifitas ekonomi yang cukup tinggi. seperti halnya di kawasan daerah semarang dan kudus yang merupakan daerah kawasan industri. secara garis besar kegiatan ekonomi yang ada di jawa tengah pada umumnya yaitu produksi, konsumsi dan distribusi. provinsi jawa tengah memiliki kekayaan alam yang cukup berlimpah, sehingga apabila bisa dikelola dengan baik dapat memberikan kontribusi terhadap pendapatan daerah maupun pembangunan daerah jawa tengah. tanpa mengesampingkan salah satu tujuan pembangunan yaitu meningkatkan kesejahteraan masyarakat secara berkelanjutan maka perlu adanya sebuah pengelolaan sumber daya alam secara berkelanjutan, artinya bahwa dalam memanfaatkan kekayaan sumber daya alam yang dimiliki jawa tengah dalam meningkatkan pendapatan daerahnya tidak hanya sekali pemanfaatan saja, akan tetapi perlu adanya upaya pelestarian maupun penggunaan atau pemanfaatan sumber daya secara efektif dan efisien dengan kata lain tidak melakukan usaha eksploitasi besar-besaran tanpa adanya upaya pelestarian dalam rangka pembangunan berkelanjutan. provinsi jawa tengah memiliki kawasan hutan meliputi 20 persen wilayah provinsi, terutama di bagian utara dan selatan. daerah blora-grobogan merupakan penghasil kayu jati. jawa tengah juga terdapat sejumlah industri besar dan menengah. daerah semarangungaran-demak-kudus merupakan kawasan industri dikenal sebagai pusat industri rokok. cilacap terdapat industri semen. blok cepu di pinggiran kabupaten blora (perbatasan jawa timur dan jawa tengah) terdapat cadangan minyak bumi yang cukup signifikan, dan kawasan ini sejak zaman hindia belanda telah lama dikenal sebagai daerah tambang minyak. tujuan studi adalah untuk mengidentifikasi pertumbuhan ekonomi dan kondisi lingkungan di provinsi jawa tengah dan melakukan analisis keterkaitan pertumbuhan ekonomi dengan kualitas lingkungan di kabupaten kudus dan kabupaten semarang perkembangan isu-isu lingkungan hidup akan mengarah pada perkembangan suatu komitmen pemerintah daerah untuk lebih memperhatikan dan bertanggung jawab pada lingkungan dan mampu memformulasikan strategi konservasi. satu sisi, perekonomian mengalami perkembangan dan pertumbuhan setiap tahunnya namun di sisi lainnya adanya dampak yang menurun pada lingkungan atau terjadinya degradasi lingkungan terutama di daerah yang memiliki kawasan industri ataupun cluster seperti kabupaten kudus dan kabupaten semarang . ekonomi lingkungan. pembangunan ekonomi adalah proses penciptaan suatu lingkungan oleh masyarakat yang mempengaruhi hasilhasil indikator ekonomi seperti kenaikan kesempatan kerja dan pertumbuhan ekonomi. lingkungan yang dimaksud sebagai sumber daya perencanaan meliputi lingkungan fisik, peraturan dan perilaku (blakely: 1998: 75-77). pengaturan penggunaan ruang wilayah bisa berakibat kerugian pada sebagian masyarakat karena lahan yang dimilikinya tidak bisa bebas digunakan. dengan demikian, perlu dipertanyakan apa landasannya sehingga negara berhak mengatur penggunaan ruang. di wilayah republik indonesia hak negara jelas diatur dalam uud 1945 pasal 33 ayat (3) yang berbunyi “bumi, air dan kekayaan alam yang terkandung di dalamnya dikuasai oleh negara dan dipergunakan untuk sebesar-besar kemakmuran rakyat.” hak negara ini lebih lanjut diatur dalam berbagai undang-undang dan peraturan pemerintah. di negara kapitalis pun sangat menjunjung tinggi hak milik perseorangan, terdapat kesadaran masyarakat bahwa jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 1, april 2013: 18-25 20 penggunaan lahan memang perlu diatur. hal ini tidak lain karena manfaat dari pengaturan penggunaan ruang tersebut kepada seluruh masyarakat adalah lebih tinggi dibanding dengan kerugian yang mungkin diderita oleh sekelompok kecil masyarakat. dalam sebuah terbitan world bank, christine m.e. whitehead (dunkerley, ed; 1983: 108) menulis “the market merchanism is unlikely, on its own, to produce an efficient allocation of land uses”. artinya, mekanisme pasar saja tidak akan menghasilkan suatu alokasi penggunaan lahan yang efisien. dengan demikian apabila dibiarkan, kemakmuran rakyat tidak akan maksimal atau bahkan bisa merosot. hal inilah yang mendorong agar pemerintah perlu campur tangan dalam pengaturan penggunaan lahan. beberapa alasan mengapa pemerintah perlu campur tangan dalam mengatur penggunaan lahan: 1) perlu tersedianya lahan untuk kepentingan umum; 2) adanya faktor eksternalitas (externalities); 3) informasi yang tidak sempurna; 4) daya beli masyarakat yang tidak merata, dan 5) perbedaan penilaian masyarakat antara manfaat jangka pendek dengan manfaat jangka panjang pemerintah perlu menyediakan lahan untuk kepentingan umum (public goods), yang apabila diserahkan kepada mekanisme pasar, hal itu tidak akan tersedia atau ketersediaannya tidak sebanyak yang dibutuhkan. lahan untuk kepentingan umum misalnya, untuk jaringan jalan, saluran drainase, jalur pipa air minum, jaringan listrik dan telepon, lapangan adanya olahraga, fasilitas pendidikan, atau fasilitas kesehatan. walaupun ada kemungkinan pihak swasta mau ikut membangun berbagai fasilitas yang dikemukan di atas, tetapi jumlahnya tidak akan sebanyak yang dibutuhkan. bahkan ada kebutuhan lahan yang kecil kemungkinannya desediakan oleh swasta (mekanisme pasar) tetapi sangat diperlukan untuk kelangsungan dan kenyamanan kehidupan manusia, yaitu yang bersangkut-paut dengan kelestarian lingkungan seperti hutan lindung, hutan suaka alam, jalur hijau/penyangga abrasi pada sempadan pantai, jalur hijau pada sempadan sungai, dan ruang terbuka yang hijau di perkotaan. lahan yang sudah disediakan pemerintah pun bahkan sering dirusak oleh masyarakat untuk tujuan keuntungan pribadi. adanya faktor eksternalitas (externalities) dalam kegiatan manusia yang akan menimbulkan social cost dari kegiatan tersebut terhadap lingkungan di sekitarnya yang bisa merugikan atau menguntungkan masyarakat (tetapi dalam banyak hal merugikan), tetapi tidak mempengaruhi penerimaan/pengeluaran institusi yang melakukan kegiatan tersebut. misalnya, kegiatan industri yang menimbulkan polusi apabila tidak diatur lokasinya dapat menciptakan kerugian (misalnya di bidang kesehatan) pada masyarakat di sekitarnya, padahal mekanisme pasar tidak mengatur pembayaran kompensasi oleh perusahaan kepada masyarakat yang dirugikan. contoh lain: apabila tanah miring (tidak datar) pada lereng-lereng perbukitan yang ditanami tanaman semusim (terlebih-lebih apabila tidak menggunakan terasering) maka kemampuan tanah untuk menahan air menurun tajam. hal ini bisa mendorong terjadinya banjir di musim hujan dan rendah debit sungai di musim kemarau. yang menderita kerugian bukan hanya petani yang melakukan aktivitas pada lereng perbukitan tersebut (karena terjadinya erosi dan menurunnya mutu tanah), tetapi kerugian yang lebih besar akan diderita oleh seluruh masyarakat, baik karena kebanjiran di musim hujan atau kekurangan air di musim kemarau. informasi yang tidak sempurna (assimetric information), menyangkut kondisi saat ini maupun tentang apa yang direncanakan orang saat ini untuk dilaksanakan di masa yang akan datang. seseorang tidak akan mengetahui apa yang dilakukan orang lain atas lahannya, padahal pengunaan lahan dapat mempengaruhi nilai/ kegunaan lahan masyarakat di sekitarnya. apabila informasi tidak sempurna, pasar merespon secara wajar sehingga apa yang dilakukan masyarakat menjadi tidak optimal. misalnya, masyarakat tidak mengetahui di mana akan dibangun lokasi industri berskala besar sehingga masyarakat tidak cukup cepat merespon kemungkinan tersebut seandainya masyarakat sejak awal sudah mengetahui, masyarakat bisa memanfaatkan peluang-peluang adanya industri tersebut, hal ini dapat mempercepat diperolehnya keuntungan/manfaat bagi industri tersebut dan bagi masyarakat sekitarnya. daya beli masyarakat yang tidak merata sehingga ada pihak-pihak yang dapat menguasai lahan secara berlebihan tetapi ada pihak lain identifikasi kualitas pertumbuhan ... (bambang prishardoyo, lesta karolina br sebayang) 21 yang sulit mendapatkan lahan. padahal lahan dibutuhkan setiap manusia setidak-tidaknya sebagai tempat tinggal. selain mengakibatkan ada pihak-pihak yang dirugikan pemanfaatan lahan juga menjadi tidak optimal, misalnya karena kehidupan menjadi tidak efisien. misalnya, adalah strategis cukup luas di perkotaan yang hanya dikuasai oleh segelintir manusia secara monopolistik atau oligopolistik. mereka bisa saja menetapkan sewa yang sangat tinggi untuk lahan tersebut. dikarenakan sewa yang sangat tinggi maka hanya kegiatan tertentu yang maupun membayar sewa tersebut, umumnya kegiatan perdagangan dan jasa. dengan demikian, permukiman terpaksa berada jauh di luar/pinggiran kota dan ini bisa membuat kehidupan kota menjadi tidak efisien karena sebagian pekerja adalah penglaju (commuter). hal ini mempercepat terjadinya kemacetan lalu lintas dan biaya hidup menjadi tinggi. perbedaan penilaian individu/masyarakat antara manfaat jangka pendek dengan manfaat jangka panjang. masyarakat cenderung menilai manfaat jangka pendek lebih penting ketimbang manfaat jangka panjang. metode penelitian sumber data yang digunakan terdiri dari: pertama; data primer; wawancara dan penyebaran kuesioner serta pengambilan sampel air sungai yang dilakukan dengan mengambil beberapa sampel rt yang berdekatan dengan industri di masing-masing daerah; kedua; data sekunder; dokumentasi dari badan pusat statistik (bps), beberapa dokumen lainnya. penelitian deskriptif diartikan sebagai proses pemecahan masalah yang diselidiki dengan melukiskan keadaan subyek dan obyek penelitian pada saat sekarang berdasarkan faktaakta yang tampak atau bagaimana adanya. tujuan studi ini untuk membuat deskripsi secara sistematis, faktual, dan akurat mengenai fakta-fakta dan sifat-sifat populasi atau daerah tertentu. pendekatan studi deskriptif yang digunakan adalah metode statistik dengan menghitung nilai rata-rata (mean), nilai tengah (median), modus, dan standard deviation. selain itu juga, studi ini dapat menyajikan data dalam bentuk tabel proporsi dari data dan grafik. hasil dan pembahasan perekonomian daerah provinsi jawa tengah pertumbuhan pdrb jawa tengah triwulan iv/ 2010 menurun 4,3 persen dibandingkan dengan triwulan iii/2010 (q-to-q), dan bila dibandingkan dengan triwulan iv/2009 (y-on-y) meningkat sebesar 5,7 persen. secara kumulatif, pertumbuhan ekonomi jawa tengah tahun 2010 meningkat sebesar 5,8 persen dibandingkan tahun 2009. semua sektor pada tahun 2010 mengalami pertumbuhan positif, dengan pertumbuhan tertinggi di sektor listrik, gas dan air bersih 8,4 persen, disusul sektor jasa-jasa sebesar 7,4 persen, dan sektor pertambangan dan penggalian 7,1 persen. sisi produksi, sumber utama pertumbuhan ekonomi jawa tengah tahun 2010 adalah sektor industri pengolahan 2,2 persen, diikuti sektor perdagangan, hotel dan restoran 1,3 persen dan sektor jasa-jasa sebesar 0,7 persen. besaran pdrb jawa tengah pada tahun 2010 atas dasar harga berlaku mencapai rp444,4 triliun, sedangkan atas dasar harga konstan 2000 mencapai rp187,0 triliun. sebagian besar pdrb jawa tengah selama tahun 2010 digunakan untuk memenuhi konsumsi rumah tangga sebesar 64,2 persen, konsumsi lembaga non profit 1,4 persen, konsumsi pemerintah 11,4 persen, pembentukan modal tetap bruto 19,2 persen serta ekspor neto 4,4 persen (ekspor 45,2 persen dan impor 40,8 persen). karateristik responden kabupaten kudus merupakan salah satu kabupaten yang ada di provinsi jawa tengah dengan 73 persen masyarakat yang ada tinggal di daerah kabupaten kudus lebih dari 15 tahun. sebanyak 3 persen masyarakat tinggal di daerah kabupaten kudus selama 2 tahun sampai 10 tahun dan 4 persen masyarakat tinggal di daerah kabupaten kudus selama 3 bulan sampai 2 tahun yang merupakan penduduk pendatang. sebanyak 20 persen masyarakat yang ada di daerah kabupaten kudus tinggal selama 10 tahun sampai 15 tahun jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 1, april 2013: 18-25 22 analisis persepsi masyarakat mengenai kualitas lingkungan di provinsi jawa tengah karateristik responden atau masyarakat memiliki keunikan dan perbedaan masingmasing kabupaten kota di provinsi jawa tengah. masyarakat yang dijadikan responden adalah orang-orang yang tinggal berdekatan dengan kawasan industri atau pabrik tertentu. sebanyak 83 persen masyarakat yang ada di kabupaten semarang khususnya yang tinggal di daerah sekitar industri merasakan dampak polusi udara yang ditimbulkan dari aktivitas industri yang ada. sedangkan 17 persen masyarakat tidak merasakan ada dampak dari polusi udara yang ditimbulkan oleh industri pada lingkungan sekitar. di kabupaten kudus sebanyak 13 persen masyarakat tidak merasakan ada dampak dari polusi udara yang ditimbulkan oleh industri di lingkungan sekitar. sebanyak 87 persen masyarakat yang ada di kabupaten kudus khususnya yang tinggal di daerah sekitar industri merasakan dampak polusi udara yang ditimbulkan dari aktivitas industri yang ada. pengelolaan limbah rumah tangga 1) kepemilikan tempat sampah kabupaten kudus kabupaten semarang gambar 1. kepemilikan tempat sampah masing-masing kota dan kabupaten yang dijadikan sampel penelitian menunjukkan kepemilikan tempat sampah sebagai salah satu indikator pengelolaan sampah di lingkungan masing-masing. hampir 50 persen dari masyarakat tidak memiliki tempat sampah di rumah masing-masing. persentase tertinggi ada di kabupaten kudus sebesar 80 persen, kemudian kabupaten semarang sebesar 77 persen dan selanjutnya kabupaten cilacap. sedangkan kabupaten demak dan kota semarang hampir sama antara yang memiliki tempat sampah dengan yang tidak memiliki tempat sampah. kualitas dan pelestarian lingkungan masyarakat kabupaten semarang menganggap terdapat kepedulian industri dalam berpartisipasi menjaga kualitas lingkungan di sekitar. hal tersebut mengindikasikan bahwa hampir seluruh industri yang ada di kabupatan semarang memiliki kepedulian dalam berpartisipasi menjaga kualitas lingkungan sekitar. sebanyak 7 persen masyarakat menganggap ada program dari pemerintah dalam upaya melestarikan lingkungan hidup di sekitar. sedangkan sebanyak 93 persen masyarakat tidak merasakan adanya program pemerintah dalam upaya pelestarian lingkungan sekitar bentuk kepedulian masyarakat terhadap lingkungan berdasarkan hasil survei berupa: 1) melakukan penghijauan di lingkungan sekitar tempat tinggal; 2) menanam pohon; 3) membuang sampah pada tempatnya; dan 4) membersihkan saluran air/selokan secara berkala. sebagian responden di kabupaten kudus menyatakan ada kepedulian industri dalam berpartisipasi menjaga kualitas lingkungan di sekitar terutama industri rokok yang telah memiliki tempat pengelolaan limbah sendiri dan memiliki program peduli lingkungan terhadap masyarakat yang tinggal di sekitar pabrik rokok. namun masih ada masyarakat yang menjadi responden menyatakan bahwa kepedulian industri masih rendah dalam berpartisipasi menjaga kualitas lingkungan contohnya salah satu industri kertas di kabupaten kudus. tabel 1. persepsi masyarakat yang tinggal di sekitar kawasan industri tentang polusi udara no kabupaten/kota jumlah responden *) persentase (%) 1 kabupaten semarang 30 orang 83 2 kabupaten kudus 30 orang 87 a b b a a b c a b c identifikasi kualitas pertumbuhan ... (bambang prishardoyo, lesta karolina br sebayang) 23 tabel 2. persepsi masyarakat menyatakan kepedulian industri pada kualitas lingkungan no kabupaten/ kota jumlah responden *) persentase (%) 1 kabupaten semarang 30 orang 83 2 kabupaten kudus 30 orang 87 kualitas udara saat ini pencemaran udara merupakan pencemaran yang paling banyak terjadi sehingga menganggu kenyamanan dan kesehatan masyarakat. penurunan kualitas udara seringkali menjadi pemicu penurunan kualitas hidup masyarakat. tidak hanya industri sebagai pencetus pencemaran udara tetapi aktivitas masyarakat sendiri terutama penggunaan kenderaan bermotor sebagai sarana transportasi utama. gambar 2. dampak polusi yang disebabkan oleh industri kabupaten kudus yang memiliki banyak industri tidak terlepas dari dampak polusi yang dihasilkan oleh industri tersebut. sebanyak 87 persen masyarakat yang ada di kabupaten kudus khususnya yang tinggal di daerah sekitar industri merasakan dampak polusi udara yang ditimbulkan dari aktivitas industri yang ada. sedangkan sebanyak 13 persen masyarakat tidak merasakan ada dampak dari polusi udara yang ditimbulkan oleh industri terhadap lingkungan sekitar. sebanyak 72 persen masyarakat yang merasakan adanya dampak polusi yang ditimbulkan dari industri menganggap kualitas udara yang dirasakan memiliki kondisi udara sedang (biasa). sedangkan sebanyak 28 persen masyarakat menganggap kualitas udara yang ada di daerah sekitar industri di kabupaten kudus kondisinya udaranya sudah buruk. kualitas air kualitas fisik air minum yang sering dikonsumsi masyarakat kabupaten kudus paling banyak kondisinya tidak berwarna dan berbau sebanyak 86 persen. sebanyak 7 persen masyarakat menggunakan air untuk konsumsi dengan kondisi fisik keruh dan 7 persen masyarakat menggunakan air untuk konsumsi dengan kondisi fisik berbusa. paling banyak 50 persen di sekitar sumber air di kabupaten kudus terdapat sumber pencemaran dengan jarak lebih dari 10 meter. paling sedikit 21 persen sumber air di kudus terdapat sumber pencemaran dengan jarak kurang dari 10 meter. sebanyak 29 persen sumber air yang ada di kabupaten kudus tidak terdapat sumber pencemaran. jenis sarana tempat penampungan air di rumah yang paling banyak digunakan oleh masyarakat kabupaten kudus adalah bak sebanyak 76 persen. paling sedikit sarana yang digunaknan oleh masyarakat kabupaten kudus adalah drum bekas sebesar 7 persen. sebanyak 17 persen masyarakat di kabupaten kudus menggunakan sarana tempat penampungan air di rumah dengan jenis ember atau sejenisnya. masyarakat di sekitar industri kertas di kabupaten kudus sumber air yang digunakan adalah sumur. sumur warga sebagian besar sudah tercemar dari pabrik kertas. sehingga dalam konsumsi air masyarakat mengolahnya terlebih dahulu. paling banyak masyarakat memasak air sebelum diminum sebanyak 83 persen. paling sedikit masyarakat di kabupaten kudus harus member bahan kimia pada air sebelum di konsumsi. sebanyak 13 persen masyarakat langsung mengkonsumsi air karena sumber air yang tidak tercemar dari industri yang tempatnya jauh dari sumber pencemaran. limbah rumah tangga yang ada pada masyarakat di kabupaten kudus paling banyak langsung dibuang ke sungai/got yaitu sebanyak 93 persen. sebanyak 3 persen masyarakat di kabupaten kudus tidak menggunakan penampungan (langsung di tanah). sebanyak 3 persen masyarakat di kabupaten kudus menggunakan tempat penampungan tertutup di pekarangan. a b a b a b a b jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 1, april 2013: 18-25 24 kabupaten kudus  kabupaten semarang  gambar 3. jarak sumber pencemaran terhadap sumber air tingginya aktivitas ekonomi suatu daerah tidak hanya dapat menimbulkan pencemaran udara, tetapi juga pencemaran air. terutama sumber air yang dekat dengan tempat pembuangan limbah akan sangat mudah tercemar. kabupaten kudus sebagai salah satu tempat pengembangan industri sebanyak 50 persen di sekitar sumber air masyarakat terdapat sumber pencemaran dengan jarak > 10 meter dari sumber air. sebanyak 29 persen sumber air yang dimiliki masyarakat tidak terdapat sumber pencemaran seperti air limbah dan sebanyak 21 persen masyarakat memiliki sumber pencemaran di sekitar sumber air dengan jarak 5 meter. sebanyak 33 persen sumber air yang ada di kab upaten semarang terdapat sumber pencemaran dengan jarak lebih dari 10 meter. sedangkan sebanyak 20% sumber air yang ada di kabupaten semarang terdapat sumber pencemaran dengan jarak 10 meter. uji kualitas air pengelolaan kualitas air dan pengendalian pencemaran air yang didalamnya memuat baku mutu air tawar yang dibedakan dalam empat kelas. juga telah ditetapkan baku mutu air laut melalui surat keputusan menteri negara lingkungan hidup nomor 51 tahun 2004. pada baku mutu air tersebut, tercakup semua parameter yang digunakan dalam baku mutu air limbah, termasuk bod dan cod, ditambah parameter-parameter kualitas air lainnya, termasuk parameter biologi dan radio nuklida. nilai bod dan cod suatu perairan masih normal atau memenuhi baku mutu, belum dapat disimpulkan bahwa tidak terjadi pencemaran, bila parameter kunci lainnya tidak diketahui. jika parameter lainnya telah meningkat dan melebihi baku mutu, maka berarti ada indikasi pencemaran di perairan. hal ini dapat terjadi karena bila terdapat bahan-bahan toksik (beracun) di perairan, logam berat misalnya (mays, 1996; apha, 1989), nilai bod bisa jadi rendah atau masih memenuhi baku mutu, pada hal dalam air atau perairan tersebut terkandung bahan beracun atau air telah tercemar. menurut menurut metcalf & eddy (1991) karena beberapa alasan, terutama dalam hubungannya dengan pengolahan air limbah, yaitu: 1) bod penting untuk mengetahui perkiraan jumlah oksigen yang akan diperlukan untuk menstabilkan bahan organik yang ada secara biologi; 2) untuk mengetahui ukuran fasilitas unit pengolahan limbah; 3) untuk mengukur efisiensi suatu proses perlakuan dalam pengolahan limbah; dan 4) untuk mengetahui kesesuaiannya dengan batasan yang diperbolehkan bagi pembuangan air limbah. simpulan sebagian besar masyarakat tidak terganggu dengan penurunan kualitas lingkungan terutama kualitas udara sehingga penggunaan kendaraan bermotor justru semakin meningkat. rendahnya kepedulian masyarakat dalam mengelola lingkungan sekitar tempat tinggal terutama bagi masyarakat yang terkena tabel 3. pengujian air di dinas kesehatan uptd laboratorium kesehatan daerah kabupaten semarang no. parameter yang diperiksa hasil kabupaten semarang hasil kabupaten kudus kadar max di perbolehkan satuan 1 ph 7 7 6 s/d 9 mg/l 2 tss 0,24 0,1 50 mg/l 3 bod 54,2 19,6 60 mg/l 4 cod 600 480 150 mg/l sumber: data primer, diolah dengan melakukan pengujian di dinas kesehatan uptd laboratorium kesehatan daerah kabupaten semarang a b c a b c a b c a b c identifikasi kualitas pertumbuhan ... (bambang prishardoyo, lesta karolina br sebayang) 25 dampak langsung dari ada kegiatan atau aktivitas ekonomi. hasil uji laboratorium menunjukkan kondisi air sangat tercemar dengan dugaan adanya beberapa industri yang membuang limbah ke sungai. daftar pustaka badan pusat statistik. (tt). provinsi jawa tengah dalam angka, beberapa edisi. jakarta: bps. blakley, e. (1989). planning local economic development: theory and practices. california: sage corners, r., dan todd, s. (1993). the theory of externalities, public goods, and club goods. cambridge universitas press departemen permukiman dan prasarana wilayah. (2001). penataan ruang dan penetapan kawasan prioritas dalam mendukung keterpaduan program pengembangan kimpraswil. jakarta: depkimpraswil alberto arced an norman long (eds). (2000). anthropology, development and modernities: exploring discourses, counter-tendencies and violences. london dan new york: routledge: 100-111 ferguson, j. (1990). the anti politics machine: development, de-politicisation and bureaucratis power in lesotho. cambridge: university press. apthorpe, r. dan des gasper (eds). (1996). arguing development policy: farmes and discorses. london: frank cass hobart, mark. (1995). black umbrellas: the implication of mass media in development, eidos workshop on globalization and decivilisation. agricultural university of wageningen, unpublished paper. iwan nugroho dan rokhmin dahuri. (2004). pembangunan wilayah: perspektif ekonomi, sosial dan lingkungan. jakarta: penerbit pustaka lp3es: 381. mays, l.w. (1996). water resources handbook, new york: mcgraw-hill: 8.27-8.28. metcalf dan eddy. (1991). waste water engineering. new york: mc graw hill international edition civil engineering series. wced. (1987). our common future. new york: oxford university press: 400. world bank. (2003). decentralizing indonesia: a regional public expenditure review, overview report, washington, dc: east asia poverty reduction and economic management unit. microsoft word 05-oppisen jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 2, oktober 2013, hlm.137-143 penerimaan pajak reklame dan faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhinya opissen yudisyus institute of public policy and economic studies jalan kenari 13 sidoarum iii yogyakarta, indonesia e-mail korespondensi: inspectjogya@yahoo.com naskah diterima: desember 2012; disetujui: september 2013 abstract: the advertisement tax is the biggest source of taxation for yogyakarta. since 2003 until the fourth quarter of 2012, the advertisement tax keeps increasing. this study aims to know the factors influencing the acceptance of the advertisement tax in yogyakarta. the regression model that is used is the multiple linier regression model with the ordinary least square (ols) method. the result shows that independent variables such as pdrb, a number of people, and a number of industries have a significant impact toward advertisement tax. keywords: advertisement tax; product domestic regional bruto; industry; tax revenue jel classification: h25, h71 abstrak: pajak reklame merupakan sumber penerimaan pajak daerah yang penting bagi kota yogyakarta. hal ini terbukti selama kuartal 1 tahun 2003 sampai dengan kuartal 4 tahun 2012 pajak reklame mengalami peningkatan. tujuan dari studi ini adalah untuk mengetahui faktorfaktor yang mempengaruhi penerimaan pajak reklame kota yogyakarta. model regresi yang digunakan adalah regresi linier berganda (multiple linier regressionmethod) dengan metode kuadrat terkecil atau ordinary least square (ols). hasil uji secara simultan menunjukkan bahwa secara keseluruhan variabel independen (pdrb, jumlah penduduk, dan jumlah industri) secara bersama-sama dapat menunjukkan pengaruhnya terhadap penerimaan pajak reklame secara signifikan. kata kunci: pajak reklame; product domestic regional bruto; industri; penerimaan pajak klasifikasi jel: h25, h71 pendahuluan pembangunan nasional merupakan rangkaian upaya pembangunan yang berkesinambungan yang meliputi seluruh kehidupan masyarakat, bangsa, dan negara. mempercepat pembangunan ekonomi daerah yang efektif dan kuat dengan memberdayakan pelaku dan potensi ekonomi daerah, serta memperhatikan penataan ruang fisik maupun sosial sehingga terjadi pemerataan pertumbuhan ekonomi sejalan dengan pelaksanaan otonomi daerah (gbhn, 1999) merupakan tujuan dari pembangunan nasional, serta untuk mencapai tingkat pembangunan yang tinggi dan tetap menjaga kestabilan ekonomi. pembangunan ekonomi daerah merupakan suatu proses di mana pemerintah daerah dan masyarakatnya mengelola sumberdaya-sumberdaya yang ada dan membentuk suatu pola kemitraan antara pemerintah daerah dengan sektor swasta untuk menciptakan suatu lapangan kerja baru dan merangsang perkembangan kegiatan ekonomi (pertumbuhan ekonomi) dalam wilayah tersebut (lincolin arsyad, 2010). oleh karena itu pemerintah pusat memberikan kesempatan kepada pemerintah daerah untuk mengatur rumah tangganya sendiri dalam pelaksanaan pembangunan untuk meningkatkan kinerja daerah dan kesejahteraan masyarakat. untuk itu tahun 2000 diberlakukan otonomi daerah yang ditandai dengan dikeluarjurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 2, oktober 2013: 137-143 138 kannya undang-undang nomor 22 tahun 1999 yang diperbaharui dengan undang-undang nomor 32 tahun 2004 tentang pemerintahan daerah. otonomi daerah berdasarkan undangundang nomor 32 tahun 2004 tentang pemerintahan daerah adalah hak, wewenang, dan kewajiban daerah otonom untuk mengatur dan mengurus sendiri urusan pemerintahan dan kepentingan masyarakat setempat sesuai dengan peraturan perundang-undangan. kebijakan otonomi daerah membawa konsekuesi adanya suatu political will untuk melakukan penyebaran kekuasaan (dispersed of power) yang merupakan tuntutan global, di mana peranan publik semakin dominan dalam proses pengambilan keputusan. melalui kebijakan pemencaran kekuasaan akan dihindari praktek-praktek politiktirani, otoriter dan eksploitatif. dengan kebijakan otonomi daerah peran pemerintah daerah yaitu kabupaten atau kota menjadi semakin signifikan dan mereka juga dituntut secara kreatif untu dapat menawarkan dan menggali potensi dan kekayaan di daerahnya (yuliadi, 2001). salah satu maksud pemberian hak otonomi daerah agar pemerintah daerah dapat menggali potensi dan sumber-sumber keuangan daerah guna membiayai pelaksanaan pembangunan dan memaksimalkan penerimaan daerahnya, termasuk memaksimalkan pendapatan asli daerah (pad) dan pajak daerah di daerah otonom bersangkutan. sumber-sumber potensi pendapatan daerah yang dimiliki oleh suatu daerah akan mempengaruhi kekuatan keuangan sekaligus menentukan tingkat kemandirian suatu daerah otonom. semakin besar penerimaan pad suatu daerah, maka semakin rendah ketergantungan pemerintah daerah tersebut terhadap pemerintah pusat. sebaliknya, semakin rendah penerimaan pad suatu daerah, maka semakin tinggi tingkat ketergantungan pemerintah daerah tersebut terhadap pemerintah pusat. oleh karena itu, pemerintah daerah dituntut optimal dalam menggali sumber pendapatan di daerahnya dalam rangka memperoleh devisa dan mengakumulasi dana bagi daerahnya guna melaksanakan pembangunan. dengan demikian peran pendapatan asli daerah (pad) menjadi sangat penting sebagai sumber pembiayaan pemerintah daerah karena merupakan tolak ukur dalam pelaksanaan otonomi daerah, dimana proporsi pad terhadap total penerimaan merupakan indikasi “derajat kemandirian” keuangan suatu pemerintah daerah. salah satu komponen pendapatan asli daerah yang mempunyai kontribusi dan potensi terbesar di kota yogyakarta adalah pajak daerah. beberapa macam pajak yang dipungut oleh pemerintah kota yogyakarta diantaranya yaitu pajak hotel, pajak restoran, pajak reklame, pajak hiburan, pajak penerangan jalan, pajak parkir, pajak air bawah tanah, pajak bumi dan bangunan (pbb), pajak sarang burung walet, dan bea perolehan hak atas tanah dan bangunan (bphtb). terdapat satu jenis pajak yang menarik dari semua pajak yang dikelola oleh pemerintah kota yogyakarta, yaitu pajak reklame. pajak reklame adalah pajak atas penyelenggaraan reklame. pajak reklame dikenakan dengan alasan bahwa reklame dipergunakan untuk memperkenalkan, menganjurkan atau memujikan suatu barang, jasa atau orang yang ditempatkan atau yang dapat dilihat, dibaca, dan didengarkan dari suatu tempat umum, kecuali yang dilakukan oleh pemerintah. mencermati penerimaan pendapatan asli daerah, pajak daerah dan pajak reklame kota yogyakarta pada 2010:q1–2012:q4 seperti yang terlihat pada tabel 1, diketahui bahwa nilai dari pendapatan asli daerah (pad) mengalami peningkatan dengan nilai pertumbuhan cenderung meningkat. hal tersebut tidak jauh berbeda jika dibandingkan dengan pertumbuhan pajak daerah yang mengalami peningkatan cukup signifikan. sementara penerimaan pajak reklame mengalami peningkatan beberapa tahun terakhir walaupun mempunyai pertumbuhan yang relatif rendah dan tidak sebanding dengan pertumbuhan penerimaan pajak yang lain secara keseluruhan. bila dilihat dari kontribusinya bagi pajak daerah, pajak reklame sebagai salah satu sumber pendapatan daerah yang berpotensi dan dapat memberikan kontribusi yang maksimal apabila dilakukan pemungutan secara efisien, efektif, dan transparan sehingga dapat lebih berperan dalam usaha peningkatan pendapatan asli daerah di kota yogyakarta. mencermati penerimaan pajak reklame ... (opissen yudisyus) 139 perkembangan kontribusi pajak reklame terhadap pajak daerah sesuai yang terlihat pada gambar 1 terlihat kontribusi pajak reklame mengalami penurunan, namun realisasi penerimaan pajak reklame setiap kuartalnya mengalami peningkatan walaupun masih cukup kecil dibanding jenis pajak lain yaitu rata-rata sebesar rp3.851.211.672/tahun. hal ini membuktikan bahwa pajak reklame bukan pajak unggulan di kota yogyakarta. tetapi cukup menarik untuk diteliti, melihat kenyataan di lapangan banyak reklame ditemukan di tempat-tempat umum maupun di ruas jalan namun kontribusinya masih kecil. sumber : dpdpk kota yogyakarta, diolah gambar 1. kontribusi pajak reklame terhadap pajak daerah kota yogyakarta, 2010:q1 – 2012:q4 (persen) mencermati perkembangan penerimaan dan kontribusi pajak reklame kota yogyakarta, terlihat ada beberapa faktor yang menyebabkan penerimaan pajak reklame relatif kecil. menurut nurmayasari (2010), dalam studinya membuktikan bahwa jumlah penduduk berpengaruh terhadap jumlah penerimaan pajak reklame. pertumbuhan penduduk dan angkatan kerja dianggap sebagai salah satu faktor yang positif dalam memacu pertumbuhan ekonomi. penduduk dianggap sebagai pemacu pembangunan. banyaknya jumlah penduduk akan memacu kegiatan produksi, konsumsi dari penduduk inilah yang akan menimbulkan permintaan agregat. pada gilirannya, peningkatan konsumsi agregat memungkinkan usaha-usaha produktif berkembang, begitu pula perekonomian secara keseluruhan (dumairy, 1999). nurmayasari (2010) dalam studinya menyimpulkan bahwa pdrb berpengaruh terhadap penerimaan pajak reklame. pdrb merupakan jumlah nilai tambah yang dihasilkan oleh seluruh unit usaha dalam suatu daerah/wilayah tertentu, atau merupakan jumlah nilai barang dan jasa akhir yang dihasilkan oleh seluruh unit kegiatan ekonomi dalam suatu daerah/wilayah pada suatu periode tertentu (bps, 2009). salah satu faktor penting untuk mengetahui kondisi ekonomi di suatu wilayah tertentu dalam suatu periode tertentu dapat ditunjukkan oleh data pdrb daerah tersebut. apabila nilai pdrb mengalami peningkatan maka akan membawa pengaruh positif pada kenaikan penerimaan daerah. semakin tinggi pendapatan seseorang maka akan semakin tinggi pula kemampuan tabel 1. pendapatan asli daerah, pajak daerah dan pajak reklame kota yogyakarta 2010:q1-2012:q4 (rp) tahun dan kuartal pendapatan asli daerah (rp) pertumbuhan pad (persen) pajak daerah (rp) pertumbuhan pd (persen) pajak reklame (rp) pertumbuhan pr (persen) 2012:q1 72.036.157.892 43,45 46.639.587.326 28,82 1.492.468.321 16,38 2012:q2 79.854.881.562 47,19 50.121.894.872 30,90 1.547.470.333 16,05 2012:q3 88.619.263.472 49,60 53.953.651.116 32,49 1.603.466.274 15,74 2012:q4 98.329.303.622 50,90 58.134.856.060 33,62 1.660.456.144 15,43 2011:q1 50.217.845.602 19,73 36.204.844.131 16,51 1.282.399.556 11,52 2011:q2 54.253.936.316 24,56 38.289.356.881 19,63 1.333.425.854 16,55 2011:q3 59.235.685.268 29,72 40.723.318.331 22,64 1.385.446.081 19,76 2011:q4 65.163.092.460 35,02 43.506.728.479 25,47 1.438.460.237 21,05 2010:q1 41.942.759.930 10,15 31.074.961.965 6,71 1.149.929.080 -9,40 2010:q2 43.556.765.010 9,66 32.007.095.479 7,57 1.144.097.865 -9,65 2010:q3 45.662.912.555 10,86 33.206.872.505 9,23 1.156.887.844 -7,90 2010:q4 48.261.202.564 13,60 34.674.293.044 11,66 1.188.299.019 -4,08 sumber : dpdpk kotayogyakarta, diolah jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 2, oktober 2013: 137-143 140 seseorang untuk membayar berbagai pungutan yang ditetapkan pemerintah, sehingga semakin tinggi pula kemampuan masyarakat daerah tersebut untuk membayar pajak daerah yang digunakan untuk membiayai pengeluaran rutin dan pengeluaran pembangunan pemerintah. menurut vera fransisca p (2013) dan dini nurmayasari (2010) jumlah industri mempunyai pengaruh positif terhadap penerimaan pajak reklame. jumlah industri adalah jumlah usaha industri baik industri kecil, menengah maupun besar yang ada di kota yogyakarta. industri yang menggunakan jasa pemasangan reklame secara otomatis akan mempengaruhi besarnya pad yang diterima kota yogyakarta. hal ini disebabkan apabila suatu industri yang ingin memasarkan produknya dapat menggunakan atau memasang reklame agar dapat diketahui oleh masyarakat. bertambahnya jumlah industri yang memasang reklame mengakibatkan obyek pajak bertambah luas, sehingga penerimaan daerah pun meningkat. altim setiawan (2009) menyimpulkan dalam studinya bahwa klasifikasi jalan merupakan prioritas utama dalam tingkat kepentingan nilai strategis lokasi pemasangan reklame, urutan berikutnya adalah sudut pandang, ketinggian dan guna lahan. secara tidak langsung faktorfaktor tersebut mempengaruhi nilai penerimaan pajak reklame. sementara vera fransisca pesik (2012) menyimpulkan kelas jalan berpengaruh terhadap penerimaan pajak reklame. hal ini menunjukkan panjang jalan disuatu daerah mempengaruhi tingkat penerimaan pajak reklame. semakin panjang jalan semakin banyak pilihan ruang untuk tempat pemasangan reklame. penggunaan ruas jalan untuk penempatan reklame sebagai media promosi dan publikasi suatu produk ataupun kegiatan merupakan hal yang lazim dilihat disepanjang jalan baik di pertigaan jalan, perempatan jalan maupun jalan-jalan yang ramai dilalui. panjang jalan yang dimaksud disini adalah panjang jalan secara keseluruhan yang ada di kota yogyakarta. berdasarkan latar belakang diatas maka peneliti tertarik untuk mengadakan studi lebih lanjut mengenai faktor yang mempengaruhi penerimaan pajak reklame khususnya di kota yogyakarta. metode penelitian obyek studi ini adalah penerimaan pajak reklame kota yogyakarta, pdrb, jumlah penduduk, jumlah industri, dan panjang jalan di kota yogyakarta selama kurun waktu sepuluh tahun mulai dari tahun 2003–2012 dalam bentuk data kuartal. data yang dibutuhkan dalam penulisan skripsi ini adalah data sekunder. studi ini bersifat studi kasus dengan menentukan lokasi studi di kota yogyakarta. data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder selama sepuluh tahun dalam bentuk kuartal. adapun data yang digunakan adalah penerimaan pajak reklame kota yogyakarta pada tahun dan kuartal 2003:q1–2012:q4; pdrb atas dasar harga konstan tahun 2000 kota yogyakarta pada tahun dan kuartal 2003:q1–2012:q4; jumlah penduduk kota yogyakarta pada tahun dan kuartal 2003:q1–2012:q4; jumlah industri kota yogyakarta pada tahun dan kuartal 2003:q1–2012:q4; panjang jalan kota yogyakarta pada tahun dan kuartal 2003:q1 – 2012:q4 data-data sekunder yang digunakan dalam studi ini diperoleh dari publikasi instansiinstansi pemerintah yaitu badan pusat statistik (bps) daerah istimewa yogyakarta, dinas pajak daerah dan pengelolaan keuangan (dpdpk) kota yogyakarta. data yang diperoleh dari berbagai sumber dalam bentuk tahunan kemudian diubah menjadi data kuartalan. teknik pengumpulan data dengan cara penelusuran secara fisik dengan menggunakan pustakawan dan referensi pustakawan dan langsung ke instansi terkait yaitu, dinas pajak daerah dan pengelolaan keuangan (dpdpk) kota yogyakarta, badan pusat statistik (bps) daerah istimewa yogyakarta. dalam menganalisis besarnya pengaruh variabel independen terhadap variabel dependen maka digunakan model ekonometrik dengan cara meregresikan variabel-variabel yang telah ada dengan menggunakan metode ordinary least square (ols). dalam studi ini permasalahan yang akan dibahas adalah sejauh mana pdrb, jumlah penduduk, jumlah industri, dan panjang jalan berpengaruh terhadap penerimaan pajak reklame selama kuartal 1 tahun 2003 sampai kuartal 4 tahun 2012. fungsi matematikanya dapat dituliskan sebagai berikut: penerimaan pajak reklame ... (opissen yudisyus) 141 pr = f(x1,x2,x3x4) 1) kemudian fungsi tersebut dinyatakan dalam hubungan y dan x maka, pr = αx1β1 x2β2 x3β3 x4β4 2) persamaan di atas diubah ke dalam bentuk linier berganda menjadi: pr = α + β1pdrb + β2pddk + β3indt + β4pjln+ µ 3) di mana: pr adalah penerimaan pajak reklame (rupiah); α adalah intercept/konstanta; β1 β2 β3 β4 adalah koefisienregresi; pdrb adalah pdrb (rupiah); pddk adalah jumlah penduduk; indt adalah jumlah industri; pjln adalah panjang jalan; µ adalah term of error. dengan menggunakan analisis regresi linier berganda dan metode ols akan menghasilkan koefisien regresi dari masing-masing variabel yang merupakan estimasi dari masingmasing faktor yang berpengaruh dan sejauh mana pengaruh dari faktor-faktor tersebut secara bersama-sama dalam mempengaruhi penerimaan pajak reklame. selanjutnya dilakukan pengujian hipotesis yang meliputi uji secara parsial (uji-t) dan uji secara serempak (uji-f). hasil dan pembahasan tabel 2. hasil regresi variabel koefisien (t-stat) konstanta -18,19224 (-4,1521)** pdrb 2,892194 (5,1367)** pddk indt 1,361425 (2,8923)** 0,842058 (0,4957)*** r-square 0,9253 fstat 148,7497** dw stat 0,1929 * signifikanpada level 1 persen; ** signifikanpada level 5 persen; *** signifikanpada level 10 persen hasil uji pengaruh variabel bebas terhadap variabel terikat dapat dilihat pada tabel 2. berdasarkan perhitungan tersebut, maka dapat diperoleh persamaan regresi sebagai berikut: pr = -18,1922 + 2,8921 pdrb + 1,3614 pddk + 0,8420 indt mencermati tabel 2 terlihat hasil koefisien regresi dari masing-masing variabel bebas dan dapat diinterpretasikan sebagai berikut: 1) koefisien regresi dari konstanta sebesar -18,19224, dapat diartikan apabila semua variabel bebas (pdrb, pddk, indt) dianggap konstan atau tidak mengalami perubahan maka penerimaan pajak reklame (pr) sebesar: -18,19224. 2) koefisien regresi dari pdrb sebesar: 2,892194, dapat diartikan apabila pdrb meningkat sebesar 1 persen per tahun maka penerimaan pajak reklame akan meningkat sebesar 2,89 persen. koefisien pdrb bernilai positif, yang bermakna pdrb memiliki hubungan positif terhadap penerimaan pajak reklame. peningkatan 1 persen pada pdrb akan meningkatkan penerimaan pajak reklame sebesar 2,89 persen. dengan asumsi varaibel yang lain, yaitu jumlah penduduk dan jumlah industri tetap. 3) koefisien regresi dari jumlah penduduk (pddk) sebesar 1,361425, dapat diartikan apabila jumlah penduduk meningkat 1 persen maka penerimaan pajak reklame akan mengalami perubahan atau meningkat sebesar 1,36 persen. koefisien jumlah penduduk bernilai positif, yang bermakna jumlah penduduk memiliki hubungan positif terhadap penerimaan pajak reklame. peningkatan 1 persen pada jumlah penduduk akan meningkatkan penerimaan pajak reklame sebesar 1,36 persen. dengan asumsi variabel yang lain, yaitu pdrb dan jumlah industri tetap. 4) koefisien regresi dari jumlah industri (indt) sebesar 0,842058, dapat diartikan apabila jumlah industri meningkat 1 persen maka penerimaan pajak reklame akan mengalami perubahan atau meningkat sebesar 0,84 persen. koefisien jumlah industri bernilai positif, yang bermakna jumlah industri memiliki hubungan jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 2, oktober 2013: 137-143 142 positif terhadap penerimaan pajak reklame. peningkatan 1 persen pada jumlah industri akan meningkatkan penerimaan pajak reklame sebesar 0,84 persen. dengan asumsi variabel yang lain, yaitu pdrb dan jumlah penduduk tetap. berdasarkan tabel 2 diperoleh hasil regresi dari masing-masing variabel bebas dengan nilai t-statistik dan tingkat signifikansinya. hasil pengujian tersebut dapat diinterpretasikan sebagai berikut: 1) pengujian terhadap variabel pdrb variabel pdrb mempunyai nilai t-statistik sebesar 5,1367 dengan nilai probabilitasnya 0,0000, maka hasil regresi tersebut signifikan pada taraf signifikansi 5 persen. pdrb secara statistik berpengaruh terhadap penerimaan pajak reklame. hal ini diperkuat dengan koefisien regresi bernilai positif atau mempunyai hubungan positif dengan penerimaan pajak reklame. 2) pengujian terhadap variabel jumlah penduduk (pddk) variabel jumlah penduduk (pddk) mempunyai nilai t-statistik sebesar 2,8923 dengan nilai probabilitasnya 0,0064, maka hasil regresi tersebut signifikan pada taraf signifikansi 5 persen. jumlah penduduk secara statistik berpengaruh terhadap penerimaan pajak reklame. hal ini diperkuat dengan koefisien regresi bernilai positif atau mempunyai hubungan positif dengan penerimaan pajak reklame. 3) pengujian terhadap variabel jumlah industri (indt) variabel jumlah industri (indt) mempunyai nilai t-statistik sebesar 0,4957 dengan nilai probabilitasnya 0,623, maka hasil regresi tersebut signifikan pada taraf signifikansi 10 persen. jumlah industri secara statistik berpengaruh terhadap penerimaan pajak reklame. hal ini diperkuat dengan nilai koefisien regresi jumlah industri bernilai positif atau mempunyai hubungan positif dengan penerimaan pajak reklame. simpulan studi ini menyimpulkan bahwa pertama, variabel yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah pdrb, jumlah penduduk, jumlah industri, dan panjang jalan. hasil studi menyatakan bahwa hanya variabel pdrb, jumlah penduduk, dan jumlah industri yang mempunyai hubungan positif terhadap penerimaan pajak reklame. kedua, variabel produk domestik regional bruto (pdrb) signifikan terhadap penerimaan pajak reklame (pr) kota yogyakarta dengan nilai t-statistik sebesar 5,1367 dan probabilitas sebesar 0,0000. koefisien regresi berpengaruh positif dengan nilai sebesar 2,892194 sehingga peningkatan 1 persen pdrb akan mening-katkan penerimaan pajak reklame sebesar 2,89 persen. ketiga, variabel jumlah penduduk (pddk) signifikan terhadap penerimaan pajak reklame (pr) kota yogyakarta dengan nilai tstatistik sebesar 2,8923 dan probabilitas sebesar 0,0259. koefisien regresi berpengaruh positif dengan nilai sebesar 1,361425 sehingga bertambahnya 1 persen jumlah penduduk akan meningkatkan penerimaan pajak reklame sebesar 1,36 persen. keempat, variabel jumlah industri (indt) signifikan terhadap penerimaan pajak reklame (pr) kota yogyakarta pada taraf signifikansi 10 persen dengan nilai t-statistik sebesar 0,4957 dan probabilitas sebesar 0,623. koefisien regresi berpengaruh positif dengan nilai sebesar 0,842058, yang bermakna peningkatan 1 persen jumlah industri akan meningkatkan penerimaan pajak reklame sebesar 0,84 persen. kelima, terdapat beberapa implikasi kebijakan yaitu pemerintah daerah sebagai pemangku kebijakan pembangunan dan masyarakat hendaknya meningkatkan peran faktorfaktor yang mempengaruhi penerimaan pajak reklame. dapat menjaga pertumbuhan pdrb kota yogyakarta bahkan meningkatkan yang secara tidak langsung akan mempengaruhi penerimaan pajak reklame. mengintensifkan dan meningkatkan peran industri sehingga dapat memberikan kontribusi yang maksimal terhadap penerimaan pajak reklame kota yogyakarta. daftar pustaka lincolin, a. (2010). ekonomi pembangunan. edisi kelima. cetakan pertama. yogyakarta: upp stim ykpn. badan pusat statistik. indikator ekonomi kota yogyakarta berbagai tahun. yogyakarta: bps. penerimaan pajak reklame ... (opissen yudisyus) 143 badan pusat statistik. (tt). kota yogyakarta dalam angka berbagai tahun.yogyakarta: bps. badan pusat statistik. (tt). produk domestik regional bruto kota yogyakarta menurut lapangan usaha berbagai tahun. yogyakarta: bps. dumairy. (1999). perekonomian indonesia. jakarta: erlangga. nurmayasari, dini. (2010). analisis penerimaan pajak reklame kota semarang. skripsi. semarang: fakultas ekonomi universitas diponegoro. pemerintah kota yogyakarta. (2012). buku data status lingkungan hidup kota yogyakarta tahun 2012. yogyakarta: pemkot diy. peraturan daerah kota yogyakarta nomor 1 tahun 2011 tentang pajak daerah. peraturan walikota yogyakarta nomor 2 tahun 2012 tentang perubahan atas peraturan walikota yogyakarta nomor 51 tahun 2011 tentang petunjuk pelaksanaan peraturan daerah kota yogyakarta nomor 1 tahun 2011 tentang pajak daerah. peraturan walikota yogyakarta nomor 51 tahun 2011 tentang petunjuk pelaksanaan peraturan daerah kota yogyakarta nomor 1 tahun 2011 tentang pajak daerah. peraturan walikota yogyakarta nomor 26 tahun 2010 tentang masterplan reklame dan alat peraga di kota yogyakarta. peraturan walikota yogyakarta nomor 74 tahun 2009 tentang izin penyelenggaraan reklame. pesik, v. f. (2013). faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi penerimaan pajak reklame di kota manado. jurnal emba, vol. 1 no 3, september 2013:804–812. altim, s. (2009). kajian faktor nilai strategis lokasi dalam penempatan reklame di kota palu. jurnal “ruang”. vol 1 no 1 sept 2009. yuliadi, i. (2001). aspek ekonomi kebijakan otonomi daerah. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan vol 2 no 1 april 2001. universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta. microsoft word 02-asri jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 2, oktober 2014, hlm.109-117   investasi asing langsung di indonesia dan faktor faktor yang mempengaruhinya asri febriana1, masyhudi muqorobbin2 1pusat pengembangan ekonomi, universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta 2 fakultas ekonomi, universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta jalan lingkar selatan, bantul, yogyakarta 55183 indonesia, phone: +62-274-387656. e-mail korespondensi: masmuqorobin@umy.ac.id naskah diterima: april 2014; disetujui: agustus 2014 abstract: foreign investment in indonesia is affected by many factors. the main objective of this research is to get to know how effect relationship of the economic growth, exchange rate, and export to foreign direct investment (fdi) in indonesia during the period 1984 to 2013. the data was collected from central agency on statistics, bank indonesia, some publishing, and other agencies. to prove the research hypothesis, the writer used econometric model with error correction model (ecm). the calculation result shows that the variable of economic growth in short and long periods affect positively and significant toward the foreign direct investment (fdi). the exchange rate of rupiah to us dolar affect positively and significant in the short period, while in the long period, the exchange rate affect negatively and insignificant toward foreign direct investment (fdi). in addition, the export variable affects positively and significant in the short period, and it affects negatively and insignificant toward foreign direct investment (fdi) in the long period. keywords: foreign direct investment; gross national product; exchange rate; export; error correction model jel classification: h54, o16, e22 abstrak: investasi asing langsung di indonesia dipengaruhi berbagai faktor. tujuan utama dari studi ini adalah untuk mengetahui bagaimana pengaruh hubungan pertumbuhan ekonomi, kurs, dan ekspor terhadap investasi asing langsung (fdi) di indonesia periode tahun 1984 sampai 2013. data diperoleh dari badan pusat statistik, bank indonesiadan beberapa penerbitan dan instansi lainnya. model ekonometrika yang digunakan adalahmodel error correction model (ecm). hasil perhitungan menunjukkan bahwa variabel pertumbuhan ekonomi dalam jangka pendek dan dalam jangka panjang berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap investasi asing langsung (fdi), nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dollar as (kurs) dalam jangka pendek berpengaruh positif dan signifikan, dalam jangka panjang kurs berpengaruh negatif dan tidak signifikan terhadap investasi asing langsung (fdi), dan variabel ekspor dalam jangka pendek berpengaruh positif dan signifikan, dalam jangka panjang ekspor berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap investasi asing langsung (fdi). kata kunci: foreign direct investment; gross national product; kurs; ekspor; error correction model klasifikasi jel: h54, o16, e22 pendahuluan penanaman modal untuk pembangunan ekonomi suatu negara bukan hal yang baru bagi negara-negara terbelakang. tahap awal sebuah pembangunan pada negara-negara maju banyak tergantung pada modal asing. ciri negara terbelakang adalah dengan adanya kekurangan modal. tidak hanya persediaan modal yang rendah tetapi juga laju pembentukan modal jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 2, oktober 2014: 109-117 110 uang sangat rendah. pemasukan modal asing sangat diperlukan untuk mempercepat pembangunan ekonomi suatu negara (jhingan, 1988). modal asing juga membantu dalam industrialisasi, dalam membangun modal overhead ekonomi dan dalam menciptakan kesempatan kerja yang lebih luas. modal asing tidak hanya membawa uang dan mesin tetapi juga keterampilan teknik. selanjutnya, modal asing mendorong pengusaha setempat untuk bekerjasama dengan perusahaan asing. modal asing membantu memodernisasi masyarakat dan memperkuat sektor negara maupun sektor swasta. sehingga penggunaan modal asing sangat penting untuk mempercepat pembangunan ekonomi di negara-negara terbelakang. selain itu, penanaman modal asing juga dibutuhkan oleh negara-negara berkembang untuk juga mempercepat pembangunan ekonomi negaranya. masalah yang banyak dihadapi negaranegara berkembang adalah kebutuhan dana investasi yang cukup besar, sementara kemampuan untuk menyediakan sumber-sumber dari dalam negeri relatif kecil. dengan kata lain negara-negara berkembang termasuk indonesia pada umumnya kekurangan tabungan untuk membiayai investasi. rendahnya tabungan dapat dianggap sebagai masalah yang serius, karena besarnya investasi dalam perekonomian dipengaruhi oleh tingkat tabungan yang berhasil dihimpun. oleh karena itu, guna membiayai investasi yang dianggap perlu untuk mencapai tahap momentum dalam pembangunan, tabungan dalam negeri masih harus dilengkapi dengan pemasukan modal dari luar negeri (capital inflow) tanpa harus mengurangi kewajiban pemerintah dan masyarakat untuk terus meningkatkan tabungan dalam negeri (prawoto, 2003). perkembangan investasi asing langsung di indonesia pada dasarnya dilatarbelakangi karena adanya permasalahan yang berkaitan dengan infrastruktur yang buruk, birokrasi yang tidak efisien, keterbatasan akses dana, regulasi tenaga kerja tidak kondusif, kebijakan yang tidak stabil, regulasi perpajakan tidak kondusif, kurang tenaga kerja tidak terdidik, inflasi, korupsi, regulasi uang asing, pemerintahan yang tidak stabil, pajak terlalu besar, etos kerja tenaga kerja buruk, kriminal, dan pencurian. krisis yang terjadi di pertengahan tahun 1997 sampai 1999 menyebabkan perekonomian indonesia menjadi bermasalah, dilihat dari pertumbuhan ekonomi yang mengalami penurunan menyebabkan investasi asing juga menurun. untuk menutupi kekurangan modal, pemerintah membutuhkan dana dari luar berupa investasi asing langsung (fdi). investasi asing sendiri merupakan bentuk investasi jangka panjang. pendapatan yang rendah di negaranegara berkembang mengakibatkan kekurangan modal untuk pembiayaan bangunan, sehingga pemerintah mempunyai upaya dan memilih menggunakan fdi yang bertujuan untuk menambah dana pembiayaan pembangunan nasional. tabel 1 menunjukkan pdb rata-rata mengalami kenaikan pertahunnya. kenaikan tertingtabel 1. perkembangan investasi asing langsung di indonesia periode 2000 2013 tahun fdi pertumbuhan ekonomi ekspor kurs 2000 1.5420 398.017 9.595 62.124 2001 9.027,5 411.754 10.400 56.320,9 2002 9.789,1 443.684 8.940 57.158,8 2003 13.207,2 464.894 8.465 61.058,2 2004 10.279,8 488.282 9.290 71.584,6 2005 13.579,2 516.078 9.900 85.660 2006 15.624 544.467 9.020 100.798,6 2007 10.341,4 579.014 9.419 114.100,9 2008 14.871,4 613.834 10.950 137.020,4 2009 10.815,2 642.247 9.400 116.510 2010 16.214,8 682.220 8.991 157.779,1 2011 19.474,5 726.466 9.068 203.496,6 2012 24.564,7 771.970 9.670 190.020,3 2013 28.617,5 816.599 12.189 182.551,8 sumber: badan pusat statistik berbagai terbitan investasi asing langsung di indonesia (asri febriana, masyhudi muqorobbin) 111 gi di tahun 2013 sebesar 816.599. variabel kurs terjadi kenaikan dari tahun ke tahun yang dimulai dari tahun 1986 sebesar 1.655 dan mencapai puncak tertinggi kurs tahun 2013 sebesar 12.189. pada grafik ekspor juga terjadi kenaikan dari tahun ke tahun dengan kenaikan tertinggi di tahun 2011 sebesar 20.3496,6. studi sarwedi (2002) menjelaskan mengenai investasi asing langsung di indonesia dan faktor yang mempengaruhinya. studi ini dilakukan dengan menggunakan model dinamis (error correction model = ecm) yang didukung dengan uji akar unit dan uji kausalitas granger (granger causality test). hasil studi ini menunjukkan variabel makro ekonomi (gdp, growth, ekspor dan upah kerja) memiliki hubungan positif terhadap fdi di indonesia, sedangkan variabel stabilitas politik (sp) memiliki hubungan negatif. indah dan purnomo (2005) menyatakan bahwa variabel makro ekonomi (kurs, tingkat sbi, dan pdb) memiliki hubungan positif terhadap pma di indonesia dan variabel suku bunga deposito memiliki hubungan negatif terhadap pma di indonesia. messayu (2013) menunjukkan bahwa variabel makro ekonomi (pdb dan suku bunga) memiliki hubungan positif terhadap investasi asing langsung di indonesia. kemudian variabel inflasi dan kurs tidak berpengaruh terhadap investasi asing langsung di indonesia. metode penelitian jenis dan sumber data data yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah data sekunder (time series data) yang diperoleh melalui publikasi bps (badan pusat statistik), world financial report-unctad (united nations conference on trade and development), bkpm (badan koordinasi penanaman modal), imf (international monetary fund), bank indonesia dan beberapa penerbitan dan instansi lainnya. analisis data alat analisis yang digunakan yaitu metode ecm (error correction model) dengan beberapa urutan langkah pengujian sebagai berikut: uji akar unit (unit root). uji akar unit digunakan untuk menguji adanya anggapan bahwa sebuah data time series stasioner. jika data time series tidak stasioner pada orde nol, i(0), maka stasioneritas data tersebut bisa dicari melalui order berikutnya sehingga dapat diperoleh pada tingkat stasioner pada orde ke-n (first difference) atau i(1) atau second difference, atau i(2) atau seterusnya. uji augmented dickey-fuller (adf). prosedur untuk menentukan stasioner data maka dilakukan perbandingan antara statistik adf dengan nilai kritis yaitu distribusi statistic . nilai statistik adf ditunjukkan oleh t statistik koefisien ∅fdit-1. jika nilai absolut statistik adf lebih besar dari nilai kritisnya maka menunjukkan menolak hipotesis nol yang berarti data stasioner dan sebaliknya. uji derajat integrasi. uji derajat integrasi dilakukan untuk mengetahui apakah variabelvariabel yang digunakan tidak stasioner dan berapa kali variabel harus di-difference untuk menghasilkan variabel yang stasioner. pada derajat integrasi, variabel yang diteliti didifference pada derajat tertentu sehingga semua variabel stasioner pada derajat yang sama. jika nilai absolut dari statistik adf lebih besar dari nilai kritisnya pada diferensi tingkat pertama, maka data telah stasioner pada first difference dan sebaliknya. uji kointegrasi. uji kointegrasi ditujukan untuk mengetahui hubungan antara variabel bebas dan terikat dan untuk mengetahui kemungkinan terjadinya keseimbangan atau kestabilan jangka panjang antarvariabel yang diamati. uji kointegrasi didasarkan pada data yang tidak stasioner secara individu, namun kombinasi linear antara dua atau lebih data time series dapat menjadi stasioner. studi ini menggunakan metode englegranger (eg) dan augmented engle-grenger (aeg), untuk menguji kointegrasi variabel-variabel yang ada dengan memanfaatkan uji statistik df-adf untuk melihat apakah residual regresi kointegrasi stasioner atau tidak. maka digunakan persamaan regresi kointegrasi dengan menggunakan metode kuadrat terkecil biasa ordinary least square (ols) adapun persamaan regresinya adalah: jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 2, oktober 2014: 109-117 112 fdit = β0+ β1pdbt + β2kurst + β3ekport + et 1) keterangan: β0 adalah intersep/konstanta; β1, β2, β3 adalah koefisien regresi; fdit adalah investasi asing langsung pada periode t; pdbt adalah produk domestik bruto pada periode t; kurst adalah nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar as pada periode t; ekport adalah ekspor pada periode t; et adalah error term. selanjutnya pengujian dengan menggunakan metode augmented dickey-fuller setelah didapat nilai residualnya (et) terlebih dahulu. nilai residual dikatakan stasioner apabila nilai hitung mutlak adf lebih besar daripada nilai mutlak mc kinnon pada α = 1%, 5%, 10% dan dapat dikatakan regresi tersebut adalah regresi yang terkointegrasi. error correction model (ecm). ecm (error corection model) digunakan untuk mengukur ketidakseimbangan dalam jangka pendek. teori representasi granger, menjelaskan bahwa apabila dua variabel x dan y adalah kointegrasi, hubungan antara keduanya bisa dinyatakan dalam ecm pada analisis error correction model yang bertujuan untuk mengikat nilai jangka pendek pada jangka panjang. model analisis dari ecm adalah: fdit = f (pdbt. kurst.ekport) 2) di mana: fdit adalah foreign direct investment periode t; pdbt adalah produk domestik bruto periode t; kurst adalah nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar amerika periode t; ekport adalah ekspor periode t. di bawah ini ditampilkan persamaan yang digunakan dalam studi ini yaitu: fdi = β₀ + β₁ pdb + β₂ kurs + β₃ekpor + β ₄ + e 3) jika diuraikan dalam bentuk semi log akan berubah menjadi: logfdi = β₀ + β₁logpdb + β₂logkurs + β₃logekpor + e 4) di mana: fdi adalah foreign direct investment; pdb adalah produk domestik bruto; kurs adalah nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar as; ekpor adalah nilai ekspor. metode perumusannya adalah: δfdit = β0+ β1δx1t + β2 δx2t + β3δx3t + β4 ut-1 + et 5) untuk mengetahui spesifikasi model dengan ecm, dapat terlihat pada hasil uji statistik terhadap koefisien β4 atau residual dari regresi pertama, yang selanjutnya akan disebut error correction term (ect). jika hasil penguji terhadap koefisien ect signifikan, maka spesifikasi model yang diamati valid. fdit = f (pdbt, kurst, ekport-1) 6) δfdit = β0+ β1δpdbt+ β2δkurst + β3δekport + β4 ectt-1 + et 7) keterangan: fdit adalah investasi asing langsung pada periode t, pdbt adalah produk domestik bruto periode t, kurst adalah nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar as pada periode t, ekport adalah total ekspor impor pada periode t, ectt-1 adalah error correction term pada periode sebelumya. hasil dan pembahasan semua variabel independen yaitu lfdi, lpdb, lkurs, lekpor tidak stasioner dengan nilai hitung mutlak adf lebih kecil dari nilai kritis mackinnon pada tingkat α = 1%, 5%, 10%, dapat diindikasikan pada data level sepanjang lag 1 mengandung unit root, artinya data level tersebut bersifat tidak stasioner atau dikatakan nonstasioner. apabila data yang tidak stasioner tetap dimasukkan ke dalam model dapat menyebabkan superious regression atau kesimpulannya menyesatkan. untuk mengetahui variabel stasioner maka dilakukan uji unit root pada tingkat first difference (lihat tabel 2). investasi asing langsung di indonesia (asri febriana, masyhudi muqorobbin) 113 berdasarkan tabel 3 (dalam lampiran), data yang digunakan dalam studi ini belum stasioner pada tingkat first difference di mana variabel lfdi, lpdb, lkurs menunjukkan tidak stasioner, tetapi hanya variabel lekpor yang sudah stasioner. sehingga perlu dilakukan uji stasioner pada tingkat second difference. tabel 4 (dalam lampiran) menunjukkan bahwa data yang digunakan pada studi ini bersifat stasioner pada tingkat second difference, nilai adf menunjukkan lebih besar dari nilai kritis mackinnon yaitu pada tingkat α = 1%, 5%, 10%. artinya bahwa data telah stasioner dan data terintegrasi pada derajat second difference. berdasarkan tabel 5, persamaan regresi ditulis menjadi: tabel 5. hasil uji kointegrasi estimasi persamaan jangka panjang variabel koefisien standar error probabilitas c -56,362080 15,854770 0,0015 lpdb 7,520039 2,184028 0,0020 lkurs -0,276673 0,363947 0,4540 lekpor -2,681031 1,131931 0,0256 r-squared 0,622307 adjustedr-squared 0,578727 durbin-watson stat 0,950397 f-statistic 14,279660 prob (f-statistic) 0,000011 lfdi = -56,36208 + 7,520039 lpdb – 0,276673 lkurs – 2,681031 lekpor 8) variabel produk domestik bruto (lpdb) dan konstanta (c) memberikan pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap investasi asing langsung (fdi) pada derajat 1%, sedangkan variabel nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar as (lkurs) tidak signifikan terhadap investasi asing langsung (fdi) dan lekpor berpengaruh terhadap investasi asing langsung fdi di indonesia di indonesia pada derajat 5%. nilai koefisien produk domestik bruto dalam jangka panjang sebesar 7,520039 miliar menunjukkan apabila terjadi peningkatan pada pdb (lpdb) sebesar 1% maka investasi asing langsung akan mengalami peningkatan sebesar 7,520039 miliar dengan asumsi nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar as dan ekspor konstan atau tidak mengalami perubahan. koefisien produk domestik bruto (pdb) bernilai positif, artinya bahwa produk domestik bruto mempunyai hubungan positif terhadap investasi asing langsung dalam jangka panjang. hal ini berarti bahwa uji data dalam variabel sesuai dengan hipotesis yang digunakan dalam studi ini. artinya semakin tinggi tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi, maka investasi asing langsung (fdi) akan meningkat, peningkatan investasi menunjukkan minat masyarakat untuk berinvestasi dalam jangka panjang semakin meningkat, dan pertumbuhan ekonomi di indonesia menjadi lebih baik dengan menarik minat para investor yang menanamkan modalnya secara langsung. nilai probabilitas 0,0020 menunjukkan lpdb signifikan dan mempengaruhi variabel dependennya yaitu fdi (investasi asing langsung) karena nilai probabilitasnya pada taraf nyata 1%. nilai koefisien nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar as (lkurs) dalam jangka panjang sebesar -0,276673 miliar menunjukkan apabila terjadi penurunan pada kurs (lkurs) sebesar 1% maka investasi asing langsung akan mengalami penurunan sebesar -0,276673 miliar dengan asumsi nilai produk domestik bruto dan ekspor konstan atau tidak mengalami perubahan. koefisien nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar as (lkurs) bernilai negatif, artinya bahwa tabel 2. hasil uji akar unit tingkat level dengan metode augmented dickey fuller test variabel nilai hitung adf nilai kritis mutlak mc kinnon keterangan 10% 5% 1% lfdi -4,122322 -3,225334 -3,580623 -4,323979 tidak stasioner lpdb -2,335281 -3,225334 -3,580623 -4,323979 tidak stasioner lkurs -1,839132 -3,225334 -3,580623 -4,323979 tidak stasioner lekpor -3,132320 -3,225334 -3,580623 -4,323979 tidak stasioner jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 2, oktober 2014: 109-117 114 nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar as (lkurs) mempunyai hubungan dan berpengaruh negatif terhadap investasi asing langsung dalam jangka panjang dan tidak signifikan. hal ini berarti bahwa sesuai dengan hipotesis yang digunakan dalam studi ini. artinya bahwa dalam jangka panjang kurs tidak berpengaruh terhadap investasi asing langsung, karena apabila nilai tukar rupiah terdepresiasi maka menjadi salah satu pertimbangan investor asing untuk menanamkan modalnya, apabila nilai tukar suatu mata uang asing mengalami kenaikan maka investasi akan bertambah atau meningkat tetapi sebaliknya apabila nilai tukar mengalami penurunan, maka investasi akan cenderung turun. besar kemungkinan dalam jangka panjang kurs negatif dan tidak signifikan karena kurs yang berubah-ubah dan tidak stabil, sebuah negara perlu memiliki mata uang yang stabil, dengan mata uang yang stabil dapat menarik modal investasi dari investor asing. jika tidak stabil, prospek pertukaran kerugian yang diakibatkan oleh depresiasi mata uang dapat menghalangi investor luar negeri untuk menanamkan modalnya. nilai probabilitas nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar as (kurs) sebesar 0,4540 menunjukkan lkurs tidak signifikan dan tidak berpengaruh terhadap variabel dependennya yaitu fdi (investasi asing langsung) dalam jangka panjang. hal ini berbanding terbalik dengan studi prawoto (2003) bahwa variabel tingkat kurs rupiah terhadap dolar us memberikan pengaruh positif terhadap variabel total, jadi dapat diartikan bahwa jika rupiah mengalami perubahan kurs (depresiasi) maka secara meyakinkan akan berdampak terhadap investasi yang menjadi meningkat, dan hal ini memungkinkan disokong dari investasi yang berorientasi ekspor. begitu juga dengan nilai koefisisen lekpor dalam jangka panjang menunjukkan negatif sebesar -2,681031 miliar artinya lekpor mengalami penurunan sebesar 1% maka investasi asing langsung akan turun sebesar -2,681031 miliar dengan asumsi bahwa produk domestik bruto, dan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar as konstan atau tidak mengalami perubahan koefisien. artinya ekspor berpengaruh signifikan dan berhubungan negatif terhadap investasi asing langsung atau fdi. hal ini berarti sesuai dengan hipotesis yang digunakan dalam studi ini. apabila ekspor semakin tinggi menyebabkan peningkatan terhadap impor. disebabkan karena sebagian besar ekspor digunakan untuk membiayai keperluan impor barang modal dan perantaraan untuk kegunaan aktivitas ekonomi domestik. pertumbuhan ekspor merupakan penyebab pertumbuhan investasi asing langsung yang negatif dalam jangka panjang. meningkatkan ekspor, maka investasi asing semakin rendah. pernyataan ini sesuai dengan studi antoni dengan judul investasi asing langsung asing (fdi) dan perdagangan: bukti empiris di indonesia, bahwa dengan semakin banyak mengekspor, maka semakin berkurangnya aliran masuk fdi. nilai probabilitas lkurs sebesar 0,0256 menunjukkan bahwa lekpor berpengaruh dan signifikan terhadap investasi asing langsung karena nilai probabilitas pada taraf 5%. koefisien determinasi (r-square) adalah sebesar 0,622307 yang berarti bahwa variasi variabel endogen dapat dijelaskan secara linier oleh variabel bebasnya di dalam persamaan sebesar 62,23%, sisanya 37,77% dijelaskan oleh faktor-faktor lain di luar persamaan. persamaan jangka panjang telah diregresikan, maka langkah selanjutnya adalah menguji unit root terhadap nilai residual e dengan menggunakan metode augmented dickey fuller (adf). nilai residual e persamaan investasi asing langsung ternyata stasioner pada tingkat second difference dilihat pada tabel 6. berdasarkan tabel 6 nilai adf t-statistik tabel 6. uji unit terhadap residual persamaan jangka panjang investasi asing langsung di indonesia periode tahun 1984-2013 variabel nilai adf nilai kritis mac kinnon prob keterangan 10% 5% 1% e -6,345752 -4,356068 -3,595026 -4,356068 0,0001 stasioner investasi asing langsung di indonesia (asri febriana, masyhudi muqorobbin) 115 lebih besar dari nilai kritis mckinnon pada taraf nyata 1%, 5%, 10%. hal ini menunjukkan nilai residual adalah stasioner pada tingkat second difference. dilihat juga bahwa nilai probabilitas adalah 0,0001 yang berada pada taraf nyata 1% juga menjelaskan kestasioneran residual e tersebut. terbukti bahwa terdapat kointegrasi dalam model, sehingga perumusan ecm dapat dilanjutkan. tabel 7 dapat disimpulkan permodelan jangka pendek investasi asing langsung (fdi) adalah: lfdi = -0,758041 + 9,250969d(lpdb,1) + 2,377537d(lpdb(1),1) + 2,195265d(lkurs,1) 0,609980d(lkurs(1),1) + 0,515588d(lekpor,1) + 1,825004d(lekpor(1),1) – 0,312917e(-1) 9) nilai koefisien produk domestik bruto (dlpdb) dalam jangka pendek sebesar 9,250969 miliar menunjukkan apabila terjadi peningkatan produk domestik bruto (dlpdb) sebesar 1%, maka investasi asing langsung akan mengalami peningkatan sebesar 9,250969 miliar dengan asumsi nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar, dan total ekspor konstan atau tidak mengalami perubahan. koefisien pdb bernilai positif artinya mempunyai hubungan positif terhadap investasi asing langsung dalam jangka pendek. produk domestik bruto signifikan dan mempengaruhi variabel dependennya yaitu fdi artinya pdb merupakan bagian penting, apabila pdb meningkat maka investasi asing langsung akan meningkat. koefisien nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar as (dlkurs) jangka pendek sebesar 2,195265 miliar menunjukkan apabila terjadi peningkatan pada nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar as (dlkurs) sebesar 1% maka investasi asing akan mengalami peningkatan sebesar 2,195265 miliar dengan asumsi produk domestik bruto, dan ekspor konstan atau tidak mengalami perubahan. koefisien nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar as bernilai positif artinya nilai tukar mempunyai hubungan positif terhadap investasi asing langsung dalam jangka pendek. nilai tukar bernilai signifikan terhadap variabel dependennya yaitu fdi artinya ketika kurs terdepresiasi para investor akan mempertimbangkan penanaman modalnya, karena apabila nilai tukar suatu mata uang asing mengalami kenaikan maka investasi akan bertambah atau meningkat tetapi sebaliknya apabila nilai tukar mengalami penurunan, maka investasi akan cenderung turun. nilai koefisien total ekspor (dlekpor) dalam jangka pendek sebesar 1,825004 miliar menunjukkan apabila terjadi peningkatan ekspor (dlekpor) sebesar 1%, maka investasi asing langsung (fdi) akan mengalami peningkatan sebesar 1,825004 miliar dengan asumsi produk domestik bruto (dlpdb), nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar as konstan atau tidak mengalami perubahan. koefisien nilai total ekspor bernilai positif, ekspor mempunyai hubungan positif terhadap investasi asing langsung jangka tabel 7. hasil perhitungan error correction model(ecm) variabel coefficient std.error t-statistic probabilitas c -0,758041 0,329888 -2,297870 0,0325 d(lpdb,1) 9,250969 2,784260 3,322595 0,0034 d(lpdb(1),1) 2,377537 3,729559 0,637485 0,5310 d(lkurs,1) 2,195265 0,828895 2,648423 0,0154 d(lkurs(1),1) -0,609980 0,589497 -1,034747 0,3131 d(lekpor,1) 0,515588 0,712179 0,723959 0,4775 d(lekpor(1),1) 1,825004 0,805295 2,266255 0,0347 e(-1) -0,312917 0,129374 -2,418693 0,0252 r-squared 0,676227 adjusted r-squared 0,562906 durbin-watson stat 1,816380 f-statistic 5,967378 prob (f-statistic) 0,000753 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 2, oktober 2014: 109-117 116 pendek. variabel ekspor signifikan dan mempengaruhi variabel dependennya yaitu fdi artinya bahwa ekspor dalam jangka pendek dalam setiap tahunnya menunjukkan pertumbuhan ekonomi suatu negara, karena ekspor mempunyai pengaruh yang kuat dan mempunyai hubungan dengan investasi asing langsung (fdi) di mana sebagai pendorong yang sangat besar untuk pertumbuhan fdi di suatu negara. estimasi model ecm, dapat dilihat pada variabel error correction term (e-1) menunjukkan angka 0,0252 artinya signifikan pada taraf nyata 5% dan mempunyai tanda positif. maka spesifikasi model sudah benar sehingga mampu menganalisis hubungan jangka pendek. hasil perhitungan tersebut nilai konstanta menunjukkan angka -0,758041 artinya bahwa apabila semua variabel dianggap konstan atau tidak mengalami perubahan maka dlfdi akan sebesar -0,758041. hasil estimasi dari persamaan jangka pendek menunjukkan nilai r-square sebesar 0,676227artinya bahwa 67,62% investasi asing langsung (fdi) dapat dijelaskan oleh variabel produk domestik bruto, nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar as, dan ekspor. sisanya 32,38% dijelaskan oleh faktor-faktor lain di luar persamaan. simpulan hasil studi ini memberikan kesimpulan bahwa: (1) hasil analisis pengaruh pdb terhadap investasi asing langsung dalam jangka pendek menunjukkan bahwa pdb berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap investasi asing langsung, dalam jangka panjang pdb berpengaruh positif dan signifikan. (2) pengaruh tingkat nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar as terhadap investasi asing langsung dalam jangka pendek menunjukkan tanda positif dan signifikan pada variabel dependennya, dalam jangka panjang menunjukkan bahwa nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar as berpengaruh negatif dan tidak signifikan terhadap investasi asing langsung. (3) hasil analisis pengaruh ekspor terhadap investasi asing langsung dengan dalam jangka pendek yaitu ekspor berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap investasi asing langsung, dalam jangka panjang ekspor berpengaruh dan berhubungan negatif serta signifikan terhadap investasi asing langsung. berdasarkan hasil studi dapat diajukan beberapa saran berikut: 1) agar pemerintah bisa menarik investor untuk menanamkan modalnya secara langsung untuk pembangunan negara maka pemerintah harus menyelesaikan permasalahan yang berkaitan dengan birokrasi yang tidak efisien, keterbatasan akses dana, regulasi tenaga kerja tidak kondusif, kebijakan yang tidak stabil, regulasi perpajakan tidak kondusif, kurang tenaga kerja tidak terdidik, inflasi, korupsi, regulasi uang asing, pemerintahan yang tidak stabil, pajak terlalu besar, etos kerja tenaga kerja buruk, kriminal dan pencurian serta perlu adanya peningkatan infrastruktur; 2) adanya dukungan dari masyarakat terhadap investasi asing langsung agar pembangunan terencana dengan baik. daftar pustaka indah, a. s dan purnomo, d. 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(2012). laporan keuangan tahunan. http://www.bi.go.id. diakses tanggal 14 januari 2014 pukul 15:09 wib. bank indonesia. integrasi ekonomi dan tantangan global. http://www.bi.go.id. diakses tanggal 13 februari 2014 pukul 15:40 wib. bank indonesia. neraca pembayaran indonesia. http://www.bi.go.id. diakses tanggal 13 februari 2014 pukul 14:42 wib. bank indonesia. perekonomian indonesia tahun 2009. http://www.bi.go.id. diakses tanggal 13 februari 2014 pukul 14:31 wib. bank indonesia. prospek ekonomi dan arah kebijakan bank indonesia. http://www.bi. go.id. diakses tanggal tanggal 15 februari 2014 pukul 16:17 wib. badan koordinasi penanaman modal, perekonomian yang sehat, http://www.bkpm.go.id/ contents/general/4/perekonomian-yangsehat#.vbbcenyqviu. diakses tanggal 15 januari 2014 pk 23:12 wib. lampiran tabel 3. hasil uji derajat integrasi tingkat first difference dengan metode augmented dickey fuller tes variabel nilai hitung adf nilai kritis mutlak mc kinnon keterangan 10% 5% 1% lfdi -2,958267 -3,229230 -3,587527 -4,339330 tidakstasioner lpdb -3,227492 -3,229230 -3,587527 -4,339330 tidak stasioner lkurs -3,666993 -3,229230 -3,587527 -4,339330 tidakstasioner lekpor -5,229210 -3,229230 -3,587527 -4,339330 stasioner tabel 4. hasil uji derajat integrasi tingkat second difference dengan metode augmented dickey fuller test variabel nilai hitung adf nilai kritis mutlak mc kinnon keterangan 10% 5% 1% lfdi -5,776420 -3,233456 -3,595026 -4,356068 stasioner lpdb -5,138316 -3,233456 -3,595026 -4,356068 stasioner lkurs -6,732790 3,233456 -3,595026 -4,356068 stasioner lekpor -6,561330 -3,233456 -3,595026 -4,356068 stasioner jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 23 no 1, april 2022 article type: research paper impact of disaster on economic performance of asean-9: does philanthropy help? thifal azhar1, m. shabri abd. majid2*, sartiyah3, and taufiq c. dawood2 abstract: this study aims to determine the moderating role of religious philanthropy in reducing the impacts of disasters to economic problems, namely inequality, poverty, and economic growth of asean-9 over the period from 2000 to 2020. by using a panel moderated regression analysis, the study found that disasters significantly contributed to higher levels of economic growth, income disparity, and poverty. in addition, philanthropy is found to have a negative moderating role in the effects of disasters on economic growth, inequality, and poverty. the findings showed an effective role of philanthropy in reducing the impacts of disasters on economic growth, income disparity, and poverty in asean-9. our findings provide an important benchmark for the formulation of government policies to mitigate disaster risks on economic problems through the enhancement of religious philanthropic institutions. keywords: religious philanthropic institution; disaster risk mitigation; poverty; income inequality; economic development jel classification: d63; d64; h84; 015; i32 introduction sustainable economic growth accompanied by a reduction in the level of poverty and income disparity has been a target of economic development worldwide. sustainable development mainly aims to promote the quality of life of both present generation and future generation on the globe without exploiting the use of natural resources that exceeds their capacity (majid & mahrizal 2007; griggs, nilsson, stevance, & mccollum , 2017). a sustainable development agenda so-called sustainable development goals (sdgs) has been initiated during the conference held in rio de janeiro, brazil in june 2012 by the united nations as a prolongation of the millennium development goals (mdgs) that have been implemented by countries since 2001 until the end of 2015. the sdgs have set goals, targets, and indicators for global sustainable development to be achieved by 2030. generally, the sdgs unequivocally aim to exterminate poverty and hunger, lessen inequality within and between countries, advance water and energy management, and impose imperative steps to embark upon climate change. affiliation: 1 master program of economics, faculty of economics and business, universitas syiah kuala, aceh, indonesia 2 department of economics, faculty of economics and business, universitas syiah kuala, aceh, indonesia 3 department of islamic economics, faculty of economics and business, universitas syiah kuala, aceh, indonesia *correspondence: mshabri@unsyiah.ac.id this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v23i1.12593 citation: azhar, t., majid, m. s. a., sartiyah, s., & dawood, t. c. (2022). impact of disaster on economic performance of asean-9: does philanthropy help?. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 23(1), 21-34. article history received: 20 aug 2021 revised: 22 sep 2021 06 oct 2021 accepted: 27 oct 2021 https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorid=24438220400 https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorid=57212537404 https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorid=57201417628 http://s2ie.unsyiah.ac.id/ http://s2ie.unsyiah.ac.id/ http://s2ie.unsyiah.ac.id/ http://s2ie.unsyiah.ac.id/ https://ekp.feb.unsyiah.ac.id/ https://ekp.feb.unsyiah.ac.id/ https://ekp.feb.unsyiah.ac.id/ https://ekp.feb.unsyiah.ac.id/ http://eki.feb.unsyiah.ac.id/ http://eki.feb.unsyiah.ac.id/ http://eki.feb.unsyiah.ac.id/ http://eki.feb.unsyiah.ac.id/ mailto:mshabri@unsyiah.ac.id http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/12593 https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v23i1.12593&domain=pdf https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ azhar, majid, sartiyah, & dawood impact of disaster on economic performance of asean-9 … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 22 in contrast to the eight mdgs goals, the 17 sdgs goals highlight the crucial efforts to halt poverty through an increase in economic growth by implementing social policy dealings to meet a mixture of social desires and environment-related policy to tackle climate change and environmental destruction (majid, dewi, aliasuddin, & kassim, 2017). the sdgs goals are very much related to the objectives of the national development of asean countries, including indonesia (dewi, majid, aliasuddin, & kassim, 2018). for example, the fourth paragraph of the 1945 indonesia's constitution preamble stated that the objective of indonesia's development is to promote public welfare nationwide. public welfare is a condition of fulfilling the material, spiritual, and social needs of the country's population to live properly, develop themselves, and perform their social and economic functions smoothly (qureshi et al., 2019; atsalakis, bouri, & pasiouras, 2020). one of the easiest ways to assess the realization of public welfare in the country is by looking at the poverty and income disparity levels of the population, as they have an opposite direction. public welfare has a negative relationship to the poverty and income disparity levels. a higher public welfare level causes a reduction in poverty and income disparity levels, and vice versa (dewi et al., 2018). economic growth, which is generally measured by changes in gross domestic product (gdp), has been commonly utilized to portray an overall public welfare (midgley & tang, 2001). however, an increase in economic growth does not necessarily improve public welfare and reduce poverty rate, and income inequality. the effect of economic growth on improvement in public welfare, poverty, and income inequality reduction is very much depending on the extent to which the benefits of economic growth are spread across the society (cerra et al., 2021). if the benefits of economic growth are enjoyed proportionately by all citizens, it would improve the public welfare, followed by the reduction in their poverty and income inequality, and vice versa. a non-inclusive economic growth often leads to an increase in economic inequality and poverty levels. an increase in economic growth is not fully followed by improving job opportunities, reducing poverty level and income disparity, promoting decent life for all the people and their public welfare. for example, lin (2003) and ravallion (2005) found an insignificant effect of high economic growth on poverty and income disparity reduction. economic growth failed to reduce or even eliminate absolute poverty and income disparity. therefore, rapid economic growth does not automatically increase people's standard of living and just income distribution. in other words, the so-called trickle-down effects of the economic growth for the poor did not happen as expected. thus, any effort to combat poverty and income disparity through economic growth should be designed expansively, covering diverse aspects of the public life and executed in an integrated and inclusive manners (faradiba & zet, 2020). moreover, the realization of an inclusive economic growth to reduce poverty and income disparity target has been becoming more challenging due to more frequent and recurring unexpected natural disasters globally (tselios & tompkins, 2019; lim, 2019), including asean. the increasing trend of disasters has slowed down economic growth and has even led to deaths of the population (masiero & santarossa, 2019). the total number of azhar, majid, sartiyah, & dawood impact of disaster on economic performance of asean-9 … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 23 disasters in the world and asean, including several man-made disasters over the period 2010-2020 showed an increasing trend (center of research of epidemiology disaster – cred, 2019). most disasters occurred in the world in 2010 (12.43%) and asean in 2020 (15.46%) were dominated by earthquakes and typhoons. these disasters caused economic losses of nearly usd900 billion, more than 15 million deaths, and more than 2 million injured worldwide. previous studies have documented an adverse impact of disasters on the livelihood of the local population in the disastrous areas (phong, mai, & aditto, 2020), national economic growth (hochrainer, 2009; hsiang & jina, 2014; hamori & kume, 2018; tselios & tompkins, 2019; tangkudung, 2019; faradiba & zet, 2020), poverty (silbert & useche, 2011; noy, 2015; parida et al., 2020), household consumption (lim, 2019), and income inequality (hsiang & jina, 2014; yamamura, 2015; feng, liu, & gong, 2016; scheidel, 2018; ryu & slottje, 2020). various efforts have been made to mitigate disaster risks on the economy (athukorala & resosudarmo, 2005; tselios & tompkins, 2019; hsiang and jina, 2014; brown & minty, 2008; brown, harris, & taylor, 2012). philanthropy has been viewed as an initial and quick response to mitigate the disaster risks on the economy. the world giving index (2019) showed an increase in numbers of philanthropy during disasters from 20% in 2000 to 79% in 2020. additionally, from a religious perspective, philanthropy has been viewed as one of the essential public voluntary efforts to lessen the impact of disasters on the economy. for example, islam obliges its followers to pay zakat (islamic tax) and encourages them to give voluntary donations (infaq, sadaqah, and waqf) to help those really in need (holy qur’an, at-taubah: 71). limited previous studies have explored the role of philanthropy in lessening the negative impact of disasters on the economy. for example, wu and chang (2018) found an important role of non-profit organizations (npos) participation in disaster relief in two major catastrophes of the 2008 earthquake in wenchuan, china and 2009 typhoon in morakot, taiwan. their engagements in shortand long-term disaster services were crucial to mitigate immediate and long-term disaster risks to the economy. similarly, shoutherland (2019) showed a crucial role of the chinese military in overseas humanitarian assistance and disaster relief to mitigate various global disasters on the economy worldwide. however, these studies only described the role of philanthropy on the economy qualitatively without precisely measuring its moderating role in reducing the influences of disasters on economic growth, poverty, and income disparity quantitatively. motivated to fill up the existing gaps in the previous literature, this study, therefore, seeks to examine the moderating role of philanthropy in reducing the impact of disasters on economic growth, poverty, and income disparity in the asean-9. different from previous studies that assessed the contribution of philanthropy to the economy, our study measures empirically the impact of philanthropy on economic growth, poverty, and income disparity. in addition, unlike previous studies that only examined the direct effect of philanthropy on the economy, our study empirically measures and analyses the effect of philanthropy on economic growth, poverty, and income inequality. finally, our study also enriches the existing empirical literature by empirically measuring and analyzing the azhar, majid, sartiyah, & dawood impact of disaster on economic performance of asean-9 … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 24 moderating effects of philanthropy in mitigating the impacts of disasters on economic growth, poverty, and income disparity in asean-9. the results of this study are expected to shed some light for policymakers in formulating holistic disaster mitigation policies to promote economic growth and reduce poverty and income disparity. in addition, by knowing the number of the overall loss of disasters, the findings of the study provide important policy recommendations for disaster management budget planning and disaster policy measures to relieve the impact of disasters on the economy. finally, the findings of the study are expected to enrich the existing literature, particularly the empirical evidence on disaster risk mitigation and economic development from the perspective of asean countries. in the next sections, the study provides the relevant selected literature in section 2 and followed by the research methods and data in section 3. section 4 provides the findings, discussion, and their implications. finally, section 5 concludes the study. research method this research focuses on the moderating role of philanthropy in reducing the effect of disasters on economic performance, including economic growth, poverty, and income inequality in asean-9 countries. due to data unavailability, the study only examined 9 out of 10 asean countries, namely indonesia, malaysia, thailand, singapore, the philippines, laos, cambodia, vietnam, and myanmar. an annual secondary data during the period 2000-2020 were utilized and analyzed using a moderated regression analysis (mra) model. the proposed econometric technique is suitable to analyze the direct effect of disasters and philanthropy on economic performances and the moderating effects of philanthropy in strengthening or weakening the effect of disasters on economic performances. a total of five variables were examined in this study, namely economic growth, poverty, income disparity (endogenous variables), disasters (exogenous variable), and philanthropy (moderating variable). economic growth is measured by changes in real gdp per capita. poverty is calculated by the percentage of the population living under the poverty line. income disparity is measured by the gini index. disasters are computed by the number of losses caused by disasters in usd. finally, philanthropy is measured by the number of donations for humanitarian in usd. the data for economic growth, poverty, and income disparity are sourced from the international monetary fund (imf), while the data for philanthropy and disasters are collected from the world giving index and emdat (emergency events database), respectively. azhar, majid, sartiyah, & dawood impact of disaster on economic performance of asean-9 … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 25 to empirically measures and analyzes the moderating role of philanthropy in mitigating disaster risks on economic growth, poverty, and income inequality in asean-9 countries, the study proposes the following panel mra equations: ecgit = γ0 + γ11disit + γ12pltit + γ13dis*plt +1it (1) icdit = γ0 + γ21disit + γ22pltit + γ23dis*plt +2it (2) povit = γ0 + γ31disit + γ32pltit + γ33dis*plt +3it (3) where ecg is the economic growth; icd is the economic disparity level; pov is the poverty level; dis is the disasters; plt is the philanthropy; γ0 is a constant; γii is the estimated regressors, i is asean country; t is the year of the study; and  is the error term. because the data examined in this study is panel data, which is a mixture of time-series data (2000-2020) and crosssection (9 asean countries), thus the data analysis is conducted using a panel regression model. to identify the most appropriate panel regression model to be adopted in this study from three-panel regression models, namely: common effect model (cem), fixed-effect model (fem), and random effect model (rem), series of statistical tests are conducted. the chow test is performed to decide either the cem or fem is the most suitable, while the hausman test is conducted to determine which model is most appropriate to use between the rem and the fem. meanwhile, the lagrange test is performed to find out whether the rem is more suitable as compared to the cem to analyze the data in the study. the most suitable panel regression model is then selected for further analysis to answer the research objectives. however, before the data analysis, the study conducts the classical assumption tests of normality, multicollinearity, heteroscedasticity, and autocorrelation to ascertain robust findings. to check for normalcy, a jarque-bera (jb) test is utilized. the data is deemed to be normally distributed if the jb test’s p-value is larger than the assigned significance level. meanwhile, the variance inflation factor (vif) is utilized in the multicollinearity test. the data are free of the multicollinearity problem if the vif is less than 10. the durbin-watson (dw) test is used to verify autocorrelation problem, and if the d-w value is less than 2, the data are free of autocorrelation. finally, the heteroscedasticity is tested using the breusch-pagan (pg) test. the data are free of heteroscedasticity (homoscedastic) if the value of estimated chi-square is significant where its p-value is above the assigned significance level. result and discussion descriptive statistics table 1 illustrates the descriptive statistics of the investigated variables. of the asean-9, singapore recorded the lowest economic losses (usd0.22 million), while thailand recorded the highest economic losses (usd7.73 million) due to disasters. since 1965, azhar, majid, sartiyah, & dawood impact of disaster on economic performance of asean-9 … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 26 singapore experienced the smallest number of disasters, while thailand suffered enormous losses due to floods that hit the northern, northeast, and central parts of thailand, particularly the mekong and chao phraya rivers and parts of the capital city bangkok in 2011 (asian disaster reduction center – adrc, 2017). table 1 descriptive statistics dis ecg icd pov plt mean 4.770 0.064 0.410 0.158 78.588 median 4.970 0.063 0.401 0.142 23.630 maximum 7.730 0.158 1.351 0.453 754.860 minimum 0.220 -0.024 0.031 0.040 0.020 std. dev. 1.312 0.023 0.136 0.106 122.096 in terms of economic growth, singapore recorded the lowest economic growth (-2.4%) in 2001 (the national archive singapore, 2002) due to lower external demand, weak household consumption, and low business investment. meanwhile, laos recorded the highest economic growth (15.80%) in 2000 due to an increase in the contribution of the agriculture sector (60%) and mining and mineral exports (asian development bank, 2001). of the asean-9, myanmar experienced the lowest income disparity (0.031) in 2016, while laos recorded the highest income disparity (1.351) in 2000 due to economic structural change (economic activity in the agricultural sector), increase in years of schooling, increase in education, health, road access, and electricity expenditures (chanthavong, 2017). additionally, in view of poverty rate, malaysia recorded the lowest poverty (0.40%) in 2017, while vietnam experienced the highest poverty level of 45.3% in 2000, contributed mainly by an increase in rice price and unemployment rate due to slowing construction activities in several regions in vietnam (kang & imai, 2012). finally, in terms of philanthropic data, the smallest amount of philanthropy is recorded by singapore (usd0.02 million) in 2003, while the highest amount of philanthropy is recorded by laos (usd754.8 million) in 2000. channel news asia – can (2014) reported that the incidence of disasters that hit most of southeast asia was in 2013, singapore contributed usd200,000 to humanitarian assistance. on the other hand, 3 ngos in laos, namely the save the children uk, mennonite central committee, and american friends service committee have successfully raised philanthropic funds to mitigate disaster impacts nationwide. asean is one of the regions with a relatively high disaster during the last few decades. international federation of red cross and red crescent societies – ifrc (2015) reported that demises from natural disasters in the region have more than tripled in the past decade, which is largely due to extreme disasters. asean that consists of 10 member countries with 600 million inhabitants had experienced an average loss of approximately usd4.4 billion annually due to natural disasters. the various challenges to natural disasters faced by asean countries are related to the potential for frequent natural disasters with different levels of exposure and vulnerability to different hazards, coupled with different capacities in dealing disasters. disasters that hit asean countries are categorized as small and medium-scale disasters and only a few of them are categorized into the high-scale azhar, majid, sartiyah, & dawood impact of disaster on economic performance of asean-9 … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 27 disasters, such as the 2004 indian ocean tsunami and the 2008 typhoon nargis (athukorala & resosudarmo, 2005). selected panel regression model tests as discussed in the earlier section, the study first determines the suitable panel regression model using various panel data tests of chow test, hausman test, and lagrange test. the findings of these tests are reported in table 2. table 2 testing suitable panel regression model tests of panel regression models t-statistics df p-value chow test cross-section f 4.0743 (8.176) 0.000 cross-section chi-square 32.112 8 0.000 hausman test cross-section random 2.352 5 0.798 lagrange test cross-section 72.416 0.632 0.000 as illustrated in table 2, the finding of the chow test showed the rejection of null hypothesis, which means that the fem should be adopted as a suitable panel regression model as opposed to the cem. the finding of the hausman test showed the rejection of the alternative hypothesis, indicating the suitability of the rem as compared to the fem. finally, the lagrange test is conducted to determine the most appropriate panel regression model between the rem and the cem. table 2 indicated that the rem is the most appropriate panel to estimate the data in the study. thus, in the next section, the study reported the impact of disasters on the economies of asean-9 and the moderating role of philanthropy in lessening the impacts of disasters on the economies of asean-9 based on the rem. the impacts of disasters on economic growth, poverty, and income disparity table 3 reported the findings of the rem on the influences of disasters on economic growth, poverty, and income disparity among asean-9 countries over the period from 2000 to 2020. table 3 the impacts of disasters on economic growth, poverty, and income disparity in asean-9 variable dis diagnostic test adj-r2 f-stat jb vif bp dw ecg 0.563*** (4.733) 0.102 22.410*** 0.134 1.352 0.118 1.890 icd 0.039*** (5.656) 0.141 32.000*** 0.165 1.792 0.119 1.876 pov 3.374*** (6.311) 0.171 47.888*** 0.111 1.843 0.124 1.862 note: *** indicates significances at the 1% level. f-stat is the f-statistics; adj-r2 is the adjusted r2; jb is the jarque-bera test for normality; vif is the variance inflation factor test for multicollinearity; bp is the breusch-pagan test for heteroscedasticity; and dw is the durbin-watson test for autocorrelation. azhar, majid, sartiyah, & dawood impact of disaster on economic performance of asean-9 … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 28 as illustrated in table 3, surprisingly, the disasters had a positive and significant influence on economic growth at the 1% level of significance with the estimated coefficient value of 0.563. more specifically, the findings of this study indicated that an increase in the number of disasters by 1% has caused economic growth to increase by 0.563%. disasters might adversely impact economic growth in the short-run but turned to become positive in the long-run. increased national and international supports for mitigation disasters, enhanced effective preparedness measures, and improved environmental management had contributed to mollify the impacts of disasters on the asean-9 economy. in addition, the small-scale majority of disasters that hit asean-9 during the study period has only caused damage of usd1.125 million but had not slowed down the economy to grow. for instance, when the indian ocean earthquake and tsunami of 2004 struck asean countries and hit hardest aceh province of indonesia, the province received a huge amount of financial aids from the indonesian government and international communities, amounting to usd7.5 billion over five years after the 2004 indian ocean earthquake and tsunami, causing the economy to recover rapidly. such financial aids were used to repair damaged infrastructures and build back public services better, which consequently contributed to sustainable economic growth in the long run. this empirical finding implies that if smalland medium-scale of disasters are well-managed and supported with sufficient disaster mitigation funds, the government could easily minimize disasters' impacts on the economy in the short-run and ensure long-run economic growth. this finding agrees with a previous study by huho et al. (2016) who found is a positive influence of normal flood disasters on economic growth in kenya. on the other hand, as observed from table 4, the disasters significantly and positively affected income disparity at the 1% significance level with an estimated coefficient of 0.039. the finding shows a 1% increased in the number of disasters had caused income inequality to increase by 0.039%. at the time a natural disaster wallops, the poor are potentially to become victims and even lose their jobs, which finally cause a decrease in their income in the short-term. as a result, income inequality is expected to widen during a disaster. in the event that poor family are less arranged for catastrophes and live in disaster-prone zones, they will bear income losses and cause greater income inequality. the availability of sufficient philanthropic funds to be allocated to the poor while disasters hit the countries could reduce income inequality. when a disaster happened is that donations or philanthropy must be given primarily to the poor (liu et al., 2018). our finding is in line with research conducted by bui, dungey, nguyen, and pham (2014) which found that natural disasters cause an increase in t income inequality among the vietnamese households. finally, table 3 also reported the significant positive influence of the disaster on the poverty rate at the 1% level of significance with an estimated coefficient of 3.374. specifically, this showed that a 1% increase in the number of disasters had caused a 3.374% increase in the poverty rate. the majority of poor households who live in disaster-prone areas experienced homes' damages during the 2000-2020 period contributed to a higher poverty rate across asean-9 countries. disasters caused the poor to incur higher income losses and lead to a larger poverty gap. this finding urges important disaster mitigation azhar, majid, sartiyah, & dawood impact of disaster on economic performance of asean-9 … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 29 policies focused on poor economic empowerment programs when disasters hit the countries. this finding is supported by noy (2015) which found an affirmative influence of natural disasters on the poverty level globally. the role of philanthropy in reducing impacts of disasters on economic growth, income disparity, and poverty furthermore, table 4 reported the moderating role of philanthropy on the influences of disasters on economic growth, income disparity, and poverty in asean-9 during the 20002020 period. the study found that philanthropy had a significant negative moderating effect on the influence of disasters on economic growth at the 5% significance level with an estimated coefficient of -0.337. this finding showed the ability of philanthropy to reduce the impact of disasters on economic growth. this empirical evidence is following the result of the study by esawe et al. (2018) who said that philanthropy can be used to build community resilience to disasters. as illustrated in table 4, philanthropy is found to have a significant negative moderating role on the influence of disasters on income disparity at the 5% level with an estimated value of -0.014. this finding shows the ability of philanthropy to mitigate the impact of the disaster on income inequality. during a disaster, people who have savings would use them to repair the damaged assets and recover their health, while those who have no savings would be hard to survive without getting supports from philanthropic funds. thus, the presence of philanthropy could help reduce income imbalances between the poor and the rich. social or philanthropic assistance is provided to a person, family, group, and/or community experiencing social shocks and vulnerabilities due to disasters, aiming at fulfilling basic necessities to ensure their survival through the restoration of communal psychological circumstances, promoting economic capability, and unveiling information and/or retrieve to sources and prospective for social wellbeing (national disaster management authority bnpb, 2013). this finding is consistent with previous studies that found an effective role of islamic philanthropy of zakat on income inequality in pakistan (jehle, 1994) and malaysia (zulkifli, taha, mohd nor, & ali, 2021). zakat is effective to channel income from the middle to the lower groups of communities. furthermore, table 4 also showed a negative and significant moderating effect of philanthropy on the effect of disasters on poverty rate at the 1% significance level with an estimated coefficient of -2.196. this shows that philanthropy can minimize the impact of disasters on poverty reduction across asean-9. the availability of philanthropic funds during disasters could help the disaster victims to enter into the recovery period. the funds could be allocated to build back the affected areas better quickly and even more advanced than the pre-disaster period. our finding is along the lines of previous research conducted by ryandono (2008) and hafidhuddin and rahmat (2008) who found that the presence of islamic philanthropic institutions of zakat in islam is very helpful to strengthen the government efforts to alleviate poverty and overcome the economic marginalization of muslim communities, especially during the disaster period that caused enormous flosses to the economy. azhar, majid, sartiyah, & dawood impact of disaster on economic performance of asean-9 … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 30 table 4 the moderating role of philanthropy on the impacts of disasters on economic performance variable dis plt dis*plt diagnostic test adjr2 f-stat jb vif bp dw ecg 0.256*** (2.072) 0.005*** (3.779) -0.337** (1.963) 0.24 7 21.580*** 0.122 2.362 0.128 1.882 icd 0.031*** (4.217) 0.0004*** (5.326) -0.014** (1.869) 0.26 0 23.032*** 0.127 2.118 0.146 1.928 pov 1.644*** (3.105) 0.027*** (4.362) -2.196*** (2.983) 0.37 0 37.829*** 0.210 1.402 0.172 1.910 note: see table 3. overall, our findings are following the previous research conducted by esawe et al. (2018) who recorded that islamic philanthropy of zakat can be used to build community resilience to disasters in two stages. the first phase is the use of zakat in disaster emergency response to meet the basic needs of the community, including food, water, sanitation, shelter, and health care. meanwhile, in the second phase, the zakat can be used to financially support the affected community and disastervulnerable people to work and earn income to support their families in the long run. without getting financial aids, the poor would be at greater risk in the future due to their incapability to mitigate disaster risks. thus, zakat could help to rebuild the lives and livelihoods of the disaster-affected groups in the long term. finally, zakat could also be used to reduce disaster exposure by supporting communities with funds to import technology and expertise that help them improve disaster prediction, preparedness, response, and vulnerability to similar future catastrophic events. with the presence of many religious-based social and philanthropic institutions globally, it is not surprising that these institutions have played active roles to assist various elements of society, both individually and collectively during natural disasters and social, economic, and political imbalances. philanthropy is documented to be an effective way to mitigate the disasters' impacts to economic growth slowdown and increased income inequality and poverty rates. finally, table 4 also reported the findings of classical assumption tests, comprising normality, multicollinearity, autocorrelation, and heteroscedasticity. the study found that the data analyzed in this study fulfilled all classical assumptions. overall, the findings of the study were robust and could be used for further inferences. conclusion this study has measured and analyzed the moderating role of philanthropy in reducing the impacts of disasters on economic growth, poverty, and income inequality in asean-9 during the 2000-2020 period using a panel moderated regression technique. the study found that disasters had a positive and significant impact on economic growth and the negative and significant impacts of disasters on income inequality and poverty rate. in azhar, majid, sartiyah, & dawood impact of disaster on economic performance of asean-9 … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 31 addition, the study documented an effective role of philanthropy in reducing the impacts of disasters on economic growth, income disparity, and poverty. our findings showed the crucial role of the religious philanthropic institution during the catastrophic periods to strengthen the government efforts to mitigate disaster risks on the economy both in the shortand long-run. thus, it is extremely important for the policymakers and communities to support the presence of religious philanthropic institutions locally, regionally, and globally. during the disastrous period, the philanthropic institutions have been always in the front line to assist communities to fulfill their basic needs to ensure survival and to build back their future lives better. this study only focuses its analysis on the moderating role of philanthropy in reducing the impacts of disasters on economic growth, income inequality, and poverty in asean-9. to enrich the existing literature and empirical evidence on this issue, further studies are suggested to evaluate the holistic impacts of disasters on economic performances, such as unemployment and inflation, and the role of philanthropy to mitigate the disastrous impacts on overall macroeconomic performances. adding more countries from various regions into the analysis would also enrich the existing empirical evidence on the topic. references asian development bank. 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(2021). combating poverty in malaysia: the role of zakat. the journal of asian finance, economics and business, 8(5), 505-513. retrieved from https://www.koreascience.or.kr/article/jako202112748675064.pub?orgid=kodisa https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.10.003 https://www.cafonline.org/about-us/publications/2019-publications/caf-world-giving-index-10th-edition https://www.cafonline.org/about-us/publications/2019-publications/caf-world-giving-index-10th-edition https://doi.org/10.3390/su10114328 https://doi.org/10.1080/10168737.2015.1020323 https://www.koreascience.or.kr/article/jako202112748675064.pub?orgid=kodisa jesp | jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan article type: research paper tax and economic growth in nigeria: an ardl approach justine tochukwu nwanakwere abstract: this study investigates the relationship between tax and economic growth (gdp) using the auto-regressive distributed lag (ardl) bound test approach. the study further decomposed tax into company income tax (cit), petroleum profit tax (ppt), value-added tax (vat) and excise and custom duties (ecd), then examined the effect of each of them on economic growth. the data for the study were obtained from federal inland revenue service (firs) and central bank of nigeria (cbn) bulletin, spanning from 1981-2014. the ardl results show no cointegration among the variables. interestingly, the short run results reveal that total tax is insignificant while the decomposed taxes are significant. petroleum profit tax and value-added tax have positive relationship with gdp while company income tax and excise and custom duties have negative relationship with gdp. from these findings, the study recommends an effective use of taxation so as to improve the impact of tax on the nigerian economy. also, efficient tax regulation should be put in place to mitigate the issue of tax evasion, especially among firms and corporate entities, and improve the contribution of cit to economic growth. keywords: tax; ardl; economic growth; taxation. jel classification: g1; h2; h7; h24. introduction the economic history of both developed and developing countries reveals that tax is an indispensible instrument in the hand of government; not only as revenue source, but also as a fiscal policy measure for economic stabilization. tax plays a vital role in economic development of a country which includes: resource mobilization, reduction in inequalities of income, improvement in social welfare, foreign exchange, regional development, inflation control, etc (arisoy & unlukaplan, 2010). according to the classical economists, the only objective of taxation was to raise government revenue (dahlby, 2003), but with the progression of knowledge and ideologies, the aim of taxes has also evolved. aside the fundamental role of public revenue generation by tax, it affects income level of a consumer, consumption level and pattern, production and distribution pattern. hence, the change in paradigm implies that tax can serve as a tool in allocating available resources, raising government revenue, encouraging savings and investment, accelerating economic growth, price stability, and control mechanism (emran & stiglitz, 2005). affiliation: nigerian institute of social and economic research, ibadan, nigeria. *correspondence: justine.nwanakwere@gmail.com this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.20.2.5019 citation: nwanakwere, j. t. (2019). tax and economic growth in nigeria: an ardl approach. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 20(2), 124134. article history received: 19 june 2019 accepted: 29 september 2019 mailto:justine.nwanakwere@gmail.com http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/6470 nwanakwere tax and economic growth in nigeria: an ardl approach jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 125 tax is a compulsory levy imposed on a subject or upon his property by the government to provide security, social amenities and to create conditions for the economic wellbeing of the society (appah & oyandonghan, 2011). anyanwu (1997) defined tax as compulsory transfer or payment from private individuals, institutions or groups to the government. in view of jarkir (2011), tax is a contribution enacted by the state; it is non-penal but compulsory and unrequited transfer of resources from the private to the public sector, levied on the basis of predetermined criteria (jarkir, 2011). thus, tax can be said to be a compulsory levy paid by individuals and corporate bodies as stipulated by the tax law which serves as revenue to the government. taxes are crucial elements of the economy and they determine changes in national income and other macroeconomic variables, especially in developing countries like nigeria. increased taxation on imported goods and services has considerable effect on production level of such goods and services produced by local manufacturers. consequently, an efficient and effective tax administration results in increased revenue yield. however, poor fiscal discipline in the allocation of resources as well as the implementation of ineffective tax regime in nigeria become a major challenge (garba, 2014). over time, studies have been carried out on the empirical relationship between tax and economic growth, both in the developed and the developing nations (kyle, 2018; saibu, 2015; ahmad & h.sial, 2016). the outcome of the studies has shown conflicting empirical results as to whether tax brings about economic growth or otherwise. in a study by wambai and hanga, (2013) on taxation and social development in nigeria, they found that the attitude of the government on taxation need to change and recommends a tax system that concentrate on establishing simplicity, predictability, and neutrality. simwaka, munthali, kabango, and chiumia (2012) studies analyses the effect of taxation in sub-saharan africa. they found that taxes levied on personal and corporate income reduces economic growth. from their study, one may be tempted to conclude that the tax structure is largely irrelevant in less developed economies, but embedded in an effective tax system are benefits for both the taxpayers and the government. tosun and abizadeh (2005) studied economic growth and tax charges in oecd countries from 1980 to 1999; their study reveals that economic growth measured by gdp per capita has significant effect on tax mix of gdp per capita. the study recorded a decline in shares of payroll, goods and services and positive growth from personal and property taxes. olusanya, medunoye, and oluwatosin, (2012) investigated taxation as a fiscal policy instrument for income redistribution among lagos state civil servants using spearman’s rank correlation coefficient. the study found a positive relationship between tax as fiscal policy instrument and income redistribution. in the study on taxation and economic growth of the united states, engen and skinner (1996) found a modest effect on the order of 0.2 to 0.3 percentage point increase in growth rates in response to major tax reform. their findings suggest that such minor effect cumulatively can have large impact on the standards of living. nwanakwere tax and economic growth in nigeria: an ardl approach jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 126 in nigeria, different types of taxes are being imposed over time on the various economic agents (margaret, 2014). the primary purpose is to generate revenue for the government which in turn should be used to provide social amenities and achieve economic growth. however, it is also of a great debate as to whether tax has contributed to the economic growth of the country or not. besides, this study chose to adopt the ardl bound test for its estimation of cointegration rather than the conventional johansen and ols estimation techniques. consequently, this study seeks to empirically examine the impact of tax on economic growth in nigeria. besides, the study is extended by disaggregating tax into company income tax (cit), petroleum profit tax (pit), value-added tax (vat), and excise and custom duties (ecd) and evaluates their individual impacts on economic growth in the country. in relation to this effect, the study begins by asking questions like: what is the relationship between tax and economic growth in nigeria? do any of the individual taxes contribute to economic growth in nigeria? answers to these questions will help in achieving the objectives of the study. this study is organized into five sections starting with the introduction, followed by review of literature, theoretical construct and methodology, results and discussion, and conclusion and policy recommendation in that order. research method theoretical construct the neoclassical growth model of solow reveals the basic theoretical linkage between tax and economic growth. in the growth model, output of an economy is determined by the size and skill of labour and the size and technological productivity of its capital stock (engen and skinner, 1996). therefore, the growth rate of output will depend on the growth rate of capital stock – both physical and human capital – and changes in productivity of these inputs in the economy. the growth rate of the economy can be stated as: 𝑮𝒊̇ = ∝ �̇� + 𝜷�̇� + ∀̇ where the economic growth rate of country i is �̇�, �̇� 𝑎𝑛𝑑 �̇� are change in capital stock (net investment) and growth rate in effective labour force, respectively, ∀̇ measures productivity growth, while ∝ 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝜷 are marginal productivity of capital and output elasticity of labour, respectively. engen and skinner (1996) stated that the neoclassical growth theoretical framework gives insight into the connection between tax and economic growth through the variables on the model above. hence, they argued that higher taxes can discourage the investment rate, or the net growth in the capital stock, through high statutory tax rates on corporate and individual income and high effective capital gains tax rates. besides, taxes may discourage labour force participation and affect skills, trainings and educational attainment which in turn weaken labour supply growth. in addition, tax policy can affect nwanakwere tax and economic growth in nigeria: an ardl approach jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 127 productivity growth rate by discouraging research and development (r&d), and reduce marginal productivity of capital by discouraging investment in productive heavily taxed sectors into less taxed sectors with low productivity (engen and skinner, 1996). methodology this study adopted the auto-regressive distributed lag (ardl) model bound testing approach (dickey & fuller, 1979). this method helps to take care of the problem of drifting series and equally enables us to determine both the short run and the long run relationship of the model (ahmed, zaman, & syah, 2011). the ardl approach, developed by pesaran, shin, & smith (2001), was chosen over the conventional engle and granger (1987) and johansen and juselius (1990) approach for long run test (cointegration) as a result of its advantages over them. the ardl approach can be applied to series that are both of the same order and of different order of integration i.e. i(0) or i(1) series, or combination of i(0) and i(1) series; unlike the other techniques (ahmad, 2016). besides, haug (2002) pointed out that ardl bounds testing approach is more suitable and provides better results for small sample size, and the short and long-run parameters are estimated simultaneously. the study identified both dependent variable (economic growth measured by the gdp) and independent variable which is tax. it focuses on the impact of total tax on economic growth, and by extension, examines the individual impacts of the disaggregated taxes (cit, ppt, vat and ecd) on economic growth. thus, gdp depends on total tax generated within the period under study and also on the disaggregated individual taxes (cit, ppt, vat and ecd). hence, we established two separate models for the study. in terms of functional relationship, we have them stated as; gdp = f(tax) …….…………………… (1) gdp = f(cit, ppt, vat, ecd) ………………….……… (2) mathematical representations of the functions are stated as; gdp = β0 + β1tax + ɛ ....…………............. (3) gdp = β0+ β1cit + β2ppt + β3vat + β4ecd + v ……………....……….. (4) where: gdp = gross domestic product; tax = tax (aggregated tax); cit = corporate income tax; ppt = petroleum profit tax; vat = value-added tax; ecd = excise and custom duties; ɛ, v = error terms. β0, β1, β2, β3, and β4, are parameters which serve as coefficients of the estimators defined above in the models. nwanakwere tax and economic growth in nigeria: an ardl approach jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 128 the cointegration relationship among variables of the model specified in equations (4) following the ardl equation is stated as: ∆log (𝐺𝐷𝑃)𝑡 = ∅ + 𝜑1 𝑙𝑜𝑔(𝐺𝐷𝑃)𝑡−1 + 𝜑2 𝑙𝑜𝑔(𝐶𝐼𝑇)𝑡−1 + 𝜑3 𝑙𝑜𝑔(𝑃𝑃𝑇)𝑡−1 + 𝜑4 𝑙𝑜𝑔(𝑉𝐴𝑇)𝑡−1 + 𝜑5 𝑙𝑜𝑔(𝐸𝐶𝐷)𝑡−1 + ∑ 𝛾𝑖 𝑙𝑜𝑔(𝐺𝐷𝑃)𝑡−1 𝑝 𝑖=1 + ∑ 𝜃𝑖 𝑙𝑜𝑔(𝐶𝐼𝑇)𝑡−1 𝑝 𝑖=1 + ∑ 𝛿𝑖 𝑙𝑜𝑔(𝑃𝑃𝑇)𝑡−1 𝑝 𝑖=1 + ∑ 𝜇𝑖 𝑙𝑜𝑔(𝑉𝐴𝑇)𝑡−1 𝑝 𝑖=1 + ∑ 𝜎𝑖 𝑙𝑜𝑔(𝐸𝐶𝐷)𝑡−1 𝑝 𝑖=1 + 𝑡 𝒑 is the ardl model maximum lag order. the coefficients of the lagged variables represent the long run relationship, while the coefficients of the summations represent the short run model. the f-test is carried out on the joint null hypothesis that the coefficients of the lagged variables are zero (nkoro & uko, 2016). the hypothesis states that the coefficients of the lag level variables are zero i.e., there are no long run relationships among the series. this is defined by: h0 :𝜑1 = 𝜑2 = 𝜑3 = 𝜑4 = 𝜑5= 0 (long run relationship does not exist) h1 : 𝜑1 ≠ 𝜑2 ≠ 𝜑3 ≠ 𝜑4 ≠ 𝜑5 ≠ 0 (long run relationship exist) sources of data data for the study was obtained from the federal inland revenue service (firs), nigeria bureau of statistics (nbs), and central bank of nigeria (cbn) statistical bulletin. the firs have the statutory authority of tax revenue collection in the nigeria. the data spanned from 1981 to 2014. however, vat which was initiated in 1994 has some missing data. before the introduction of vat, sales tax was levied at retail, wholesale, and private final consumption levels, which was later officially replaced by vat. many authors have suggested that sales tax can be used to fill up for the missing data (ekeocha, ekeocha, malaolu, & oduh, 2012). result and discussion various preliminary tests such as descriptive statistics, diagnostic tests (breusch-goddfrey serial correlation lm test, glejser heteroskedasticity test, ramey reset tests) were carried out as well as unit root test using the augmented dicky-fuller (adf) unit root test (see table 1). gdp is stationary at first difference while tax in aggregate is stationary at level. on the other hand, the individual taxes are stationary at the combination of both level and first difference i(0) and i(1). the credibility of the series, cointegration and hypotheses were tested through the autoregressive regressive distributive lag (ardl)/bound test. firstly, we analyzed the relationship between aggregated tax and economic growth, after which we analyzed relationships between various individual taxes (cit, ppt, vat, and ecd) and economic growth (gdp). nwanakwere tax and economic growth in nigeria: an ardl approach jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 129 table 1 summary of unit root test result augmented dicky-fuller (adf) variables level first difference critical value (5%) i(d) gdp 2.339251 -6.633529** -3.552973 i(1) tax -5.817870* -2.960410 i(0) cit -1.404865 -6.137964** -3.552973 i(1) vat -5.204487* -3.658446 i(0) ppt -3.543251 -5.861270** -3.552973 i(1) ecd -1.476805 -5.242427** -3.552973 i(1) note: * significant at level, **significant at first difference source: authors’ computation autoregressive distributed lag (ardl) model result the ardl bounds test is always stated in the null hypothesis form which means that there is no cointegration among the variables. thus the decision rule is such that if the fstatistics value is greater than the upper bound critical values, we reject the null; and if less than the lower bound critical values, we do not reject the null. if the f-statistics is between upper and lower bounds critical values, the result becomes inconclusive. tables 2 and 3 show that there is no cointegration among the variables as the f-statistics values in the two results are less than the lower bound at different significance level. here, there is no long run relationship between total tax and gdp, and there is no long run relationship between the individual taxes (company income tax, petroleum profit tax, value added tax, and excise and custom duties) and gdp. hence, we proceed to estimate the short run models. table 2 summary of ardl bounds test for cointegration of aggregate tax and gdp variables f-statistics cointegration f(gdp,tax) 1.54 critical value lower bound upper bound 1% 8.74 9.63 2.5% 6.56 7.3 5% 5.59 6.26 source: authors’ computation table 3 summary of ardl bounds test for cointegration of individual taxes and gdp variables f-statistics cointegration f(gdp,cit, ppt, vat, ecd) 3.20 critical value lower bound upper bound 1% 4.40 5.72 2.5% 3.89 5.07 5% 3.47 4.56 source: authors’ computation nwanakwere tax and economic growth in nigeria: an ardl approach jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 130 short run estimate of aggregate tax table 4 summary of short run estimate of ardl test (aggregate tax) variable coefficient std. error t-statistic prob. log(gdp(-1)) 0.8904 0.0650 13.688 0.0000 log(tax) 0.1770 0.1257 1.4075 0.1703 log(tax(-1)) -0.2317 0.1232 -1.8817 0.0703 c 2.4292 1.5271 1.5907 0.1229 @trend 0.034888 0.0313 1.1135 0.2749 r2 =0.968174 adjusted r2=0.963627 f-stat=212.9457 prob(f-stat.)=0.00000 dw= 2.395503 source: author’s computation table 4 shows that tax in the current period has a positive relationship with gdp, while tax in the previous periods has a negative with gdp. this implies that current tax does contributes to economic growth than previous tax in the economy. however, the result also shows that tax in the current period is not significant, while tax in previous period is significant. short run estimate of individual taxes table 5 summary short run estimate of ardl test (individual taxes) variable coefficient std. error t-statistic prob. log(gdp(-1)) -0.3178 0.2043 -1.5554 0.142 log(cit) -0.8385 0.3265 -2.5675 0.022 log(ppt) 0.1445 0.0516 2.7964 0.014 log(vat) 1.4285 0.3085 4.6299 0.000 log(ecd) -1.0797 0.1961 -5.5047 0.000 c 30.53049 4.6477 6.568925 0.000 r2 =0.992614 adjusted r2 =0.989449 f-stat=313.5925prob(f-stat.)=0.00000 d-w= 2.290476 source: author’s computation table 5 shows ardl short run result for the individual taxes: company income tax (cit), petroleum profit tax (ppt), value added tax (vat), and excise and custom duties (ecd), and gdp. it is observed from the r-square value that 98 percent of the change in gdp is attributed to the various taxes; hence the model is good for estimation and prediction. the value of the durbin-waston statistics is greater than 2, which signifies that the residuals of the model are uncorrelated. the table further shows that all the variables are significant with the exception of one lag value of gdp. ppt and vat have positive relationship with gdp while cit and ecd have negative relationship with gdp. based on the magnitude of the coefficients, it is observed that vat has the highest value with 1.42, while ppt records the lowest with 0.14. this implies that vat contributes the highest to economic growth in nigeria while ppt contributes the lowest. this result supports the findings in the federal inland revenue service report that vat contributes the most to tax revenue and economic growth among other taxes in nigeria (firs, 2018). nwanakwere tax and economic growth in nigeria: an ardl approach jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 131 h0 1 : company income tax has no significant impact on economic growth: table 5 reveals that cit is significant at 5 percent level; hence we reject the null hypothesis. given the negative coefficient of -0.84 for cit, 1 percent increase in company income tax will lead to a fall in gdp by 0.84 percent. the negative impact could be as a result of weak infrastructures that affect ease of doing business in the country (chigbu, akujuobi, & ebimobowei, 2012). companies and firms, therefore, struggle to break-even to keep up with tax payment thus; tax evasion becomes inevitable, especially at the slightest increase. also, tax is a disincentive to investors; therefore, increase in company income tax would lead to fall in investment which affects the growth of the economy (otu & adejumo, 2016). h0 2 : petroleum profit tax does not have significant impact on economic growth: petroleum profit tax records a positive relationship with gdp at 5 percent level of significance. this suggests that we reject the null hypothesis, thereafter, concluding that pit has positive significant impact on economic growth in nigeria. despite the positive impact of pit on the economy, it is observed that the magnitude (0.14) is very low compared to vat. this means that 1 percent increase in pit will increase economic growth by 0.14 percent. h0 3 : value-added tax has no significant impact on economic growth: the result further shows that value-added tax contributes significantly the most to economic growth in nigeria; hence, the null hypothesis is rejected. a percentage increase in vat will increase gdp by 1.42 percent. the reason for this could be attributed to the fact that vat is an indirect tax which the consumers are the ultimate payers. most people pay this tax without the knowledge of it. hence, it is easy to collect and cases of avoidance and evasion cannot be feasible. besides, nigeria is more of a consuming nation with population of over 180 million people (wambai & hanga, 2013). therefore, vat, which is a consumption-based tax, is a major revenue generation tax component which drives the economy. this is in line with finding of egbunike, emudainohwo, and gunardi, (2018). h0 4 : excise and custom duties have no significant relationship with economic growth: in addition, table 5 shows that excise and custom duties (ecd) have negative relationship with economic growth, with significance level of 1 percent. also, the magnitude of its coefficient is 1.08; hence, a percentage increase in ecd will decrease gdp by 1.08 percent. this could be caused by the weak industrial base and the less productive manufacturing sector which contributed only about 9 per cent to gdp in 2018 (cbn, 2018). besides, as mentioned earlier in the case of company income tax, producers tend to avoid and evade tax. as a result of their low production capacity and high cost of business operation in the country, any attempt to increase excise and custom duties will threaten the existence of many industries, affecting the gdp negatively. furthermore, high level of corruption among the agencies contributes to the negative impact on the economy (edame & okoi, 2014). nwanakwere tax and economic growth in nigeria: an ardl approach jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 132 conclusion the result from the study reveals that total tax has a positive impact on economic growth; however, the impact is not substantial. hence, we conclude that aggregate tax has not contributed significantly to the economic growth of the country. in contrast to this result, the study shows that the disaggregated taxes are all significant. while petroleum profit tax and value-added tax have positive impact on economic growth in nigeria, company income tax and excise and custom duties have negative impact on economic growth. value-added tax and petroleum income tax respond positively as a result of the nature of tax of the former (indirect tax), which is levied on goods and services, and payers, most times, are not aware of their paying it. revenue generated from these taxes is always massive as a result of the dynamism of the sectors (especially the oil sector), and the difficulty to avoid or evade as in the case of value-added tax. recommendation from these findings, we make the following recommendations: (1) there should be fiscal discipline and effective use of tax revenue by the government to achieve macroeconomic growth in the economy. 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https://www.researchgate.net/publication/24075588_economic_growth_and_tax_components_an_analysis_of_tax_changes_in_oecd https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/4669/68c67cbc839a2efa18320746dfad3858f3a0.pdf image (2).jpg image (3).jpg image (4).jpg image (5).jpg image (6).jpg image (7).jpg image (8).jpg image (9).jpg image (10).jpg image (11).jpg image (12).jpg image (13).jpg image (14).jpg image (15).jpg image (16).jpg image (2).jpg image (3).jpg image (4).jpg image (5).jpg image (6).jpg image (7).jpg image (8).jpg image (9).jpg image (10).jpg image (11).jpg image (12).jpg image (13).jpg microsoft word 04-ferdi jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 2, oktober 2014, hlm.127-134 pergerakan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar amerika dalam dua periode penerapan sistem nilai tukar ferdy ardiyanto1, ahmad ma’ruf2 1 institute of public policy and economic studies (inspect) yogyakarta, jalan kenari r 13 sidoarum iii, godean, sleman, yogyakarta, 55564 indonesia, phone: +62 274 798342, 2 fakultas ekonomi, universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta jalan lingkar selatan, bantul, yogyakarta 55183 indonesia, phone: +62-274-387656 e-mail korespondensi: makrov_jogja@yahoo.com naskah diterima: maret 2014; disetujui: juli 2014 abstract: the study aims to analyze the factors influencing the exchange rate movement to usd in 2 period’s data, the fixed floating exchange rate (1990-1997) and the free floating exchange rate (1998-2013). the study also aims to know the factors that influence the exchange rate has the different influence between those two periods. those factors are inflation rate, money supply, and gross domestic bruto. the method that is the multiple linear regression models, and chow-test. the result from this study shows that inflation rate, money supply, and gross domestic bruto; are influence and significant to the movement of the exchange rate of rupiah to usd. the analysis of chow test, we can conclude that those 3 factors simultaneously have two different effects between two periods when the different exchange rate regulation applied in indonesia. keywords: exchange rate; rate of exchange rate; money supply; gross domestic bruto jel classification: p45, f13,f31 abstrak: studi ini bertujuan menganalisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi pergerakan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar amerika pada dua periode data, periode penerapan sistem nilai tukar mengambang terkendali (1990-1997) dan periode penerapan sistem nilai tukar mengambang bebas (1998-2013). studi ini juga bertujuan untuk mengetahui apakah faktorfaktor yang mempengaruhi nilai tukar memiliki pengaruh yang berbeda pada dua periode tersebut. faktor-faktor tersebut adalah tingkat inflasi, jumlah uang beredar dan produk domestik bruto. metode yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah regresi linier berganda dan uji chow, dengan pengujian dari tiap variabel-variabel menggunakan e-views 6. hasil dari studi ini menunjukkan bahwa tingkat inflasi, jumlah uang beredar dan pendapatan domestik bruto memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap pergerakan nilai tukar rupiah pada dolar amerika. hasil analisis uji chow menyajikan kesimpulan bahwa ketiga faktor ekonomi tersebut secara simultan memiliki pengaruh yang berbeda di dua periode penerapan sistem nilai tukar yang pernah di terapkan di indonesia. kata kunci: nilai tukar; kurs; inflasi; jumlah uang beredar; produk domestik bruto klasifikasi jel: p45, f13,f31 pendahuluan tingginya permintaan dan penawaran dalam negeri akan komoditi barang dan jasa yang tersedia di luar negeri mengharuskan suatu negara melakukan hubungan internasional dengan negara lain. khususnya di negara indonesia yang mulai menerapkan perekonomian terbuka sejak tahun 1969 yakni sejak awal penerapan pelita i, interaksi ekonomi indonesia dengan negara lainnya mengalami perkembangan tahun demi tahun dan merupajurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 2, oktober 2014: 127-134 128 kan suatu aspek perekonomian yang harus diperhatikan baik dari segi regulasi maupun sistem pelaksanaanya. dalam pelaksanaan interaksi ekonomi antarnegara, keberadaan alat tukar sangatlah penting untuk memudahkan proses pertukaran tersebut, sebagaimana proses pertukaran dalam negeri, akan tetapi terdapat suatu permasalahan bagaimana mengukur harga mata uang suatu negara dibandingkan dengan harga mata uang negara lain dalam aktifitas ekonomi tersebut. oleh karena itu, pentingnya peranan kurs mata uang bagi suatu negara diperlukan berbagai upaya untuk menjaga posisi kurs mata uang suatu negara dalam keadaan yang relatif stabil. stabilitas kurs mata uang juga dipengaruhi oleh sistem kurs yang dianut oleh suatu negara. suatu negara yang menganut sistem kurs tetap (fixed exchange rate system), harus secara aktif melakukan intervensi pasar agar kurs mata uangnya berada pada tingkat yang diinginkan. sedangkan suatu negara yang menganut sistem kurs mengambang (floating exchange rate system), kurs mata uang sepenuhnya diserahkan pada kekuatan permintaan dan penawaran valuta asing. menurut deliarnov (2006) pergantian sistem kurs di indonesia sejak diterapkannya perekonomian terbuka sudah mengalami tiga kali perubahan seiring dengan pergantian periode kepemimpinan negara republik indonesia. dalam kurun waktu 17 april 1970 hingga 15 november 1978 digunakan sistem kurs tetap, di mana rupiah dipatok terhadap dolar rp415 per dolar amerika. pada periode 15 november 1978-desember 1995, digunakan sistem kurs mengambang terkendali (manage floating exchange rate system). sementara menurut imansyah (2007) ada berbagai indikator macro prudensial yang sebenarnya dapat dilihat resiko pelemahan rupiah terhadap usd, apalagi inflasi pada saat itu tidak dijaga dengan baik pada tahap dimulainya kebijakan inflation targeting. apabila merujuk hasil pengembangan sistem peringatan dini yang salah satunya dengan pendekatan non parametrik, maka resiko pelemahan rupiah terhadap usd sangatlah tinggi. tampaklah sebuah probabilitas akan terjadinya krisis di dalam 24 bulan setelah awal tahun 2004 cukup tinggi, signal peringatan dini telah menyala yang memberikan tanda adanya gangguan terhadap perekonomian. indikator-indikator dini yang memberikan tanda adalah harga minyak dunia, defisit fiskal, rasio tingkat bunga kredit dengan simpanan, rasio investasi terhadap pdb dan tingkat pertumbuhan riil pdb. sejak desember 1995, bank indonesia menggunakan aturan baru tentang kurs, di mana bank indonesia mengumumkan kurs rupiah terhadap dolar amerika yang diringi zona kurs batas atas dan batas bawah. perbatasan zona ini dinamai batas intervensi. misalnya, pertengahan juli 1996 ditetapkan batas nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar amerika sebesar rp2.443 per dolar amerika dan batas bawah rp2.325 per dolar amerika, dengan lebar zona 5 persen. adapun sistem pengaturan seperti ini disebut zona target valuta asing (exchange rate target zone). sistem ini masih satu famili dengan sistem kurs mengambang terkendali, dalam artian periode 15 november 1978– 14 agustus 1997 bank indonesia menerapkan sistem kurs mengambang terkendali. jika kurs dalam kisaran zona batas atas dan bawah, bank indonesia tidak melakukan intervensi. akan tetapi, jika zona dilanggar, bank indonesia akan bertindak. sejak 14 agustus 1997, digunakan sistem kurs mengambang bebas, tidak ada lagi batas intervensi. sistem ini dipakai sebab bank indonesia merasa sulit melakukan operasi pasar setiap kali kurs membentur ambang batas intervensi. sayangnya, kebijakan ini tampaknya tidak dilakukan pada saat yang tepat, sebab sebagai dampak krisis ekonomi, nilai tukar rupiah mengalami tekanan depresiasi disertai volatilitas yang tinggi. ketika sistem kurs mengambang terkendali dilepas, kurs rupiah terhadap dolar masih berada pada kisaran rp2.400 per dolar amerika. begitu band intervensi ditiadakan, nilai rupiah langsung mengalami perubahan yang sangat besar, yaitu turun menjadi rp2.600 per dolar amerika ke rp4.000 per dolar amerika dan terus menurun hingga mencapai titik nadir januari 1998, rp17.000 per dolar amerika. jadi, dapat dikatakan andil sistem kurs mengambang bebas sangat besar dalam krisis ekonomi-moneter di indonesia 1997/1998. pergerakan nilai tukar rupiah (ferdy ardiyanto, ahmad ma’ruf) 129 kebijakan sistem nilai tukar yang diterapkan suatu negara sangat menarik untuk ditelaah apakah sistem tersebut sudah sesuai diterapkan dengan kebutuhan ekonomi, kondisi ekonomi dan pada waktu yang tepat. sebab jika kondisi ekonomi di negara itu sendiri sedang tidak stabil terlebih pada saat kondisi kurs yang sangat fluktuatif, kebijakan untuk berganti sistem nilai tukar sangatlah rentan akan mendatangkan kekacauan perekonomian negara itu sendiri. terlebih karena kurs kaitannya interaksi dengan negara lain maka penerapannya juga harus memperhatikan kondisi perekonomian dunia dan negara-negara lain, seperti halnya krisis global yang melanda amerika serikat dan lainnya. adapun dampak yang ditimbulkan dari inflasi akibat dorongan biaya produksi terhadap perekonomian di samping kenaikan harga juga mengakibatkan penurunan tingkat pendapatan nasional atau perekonomian mengalami kontraksi. hal ini terlihat pada fenomena inflasi karena dorongan biaya produksi juga terjadi manakala komponen produksi ada yang diimpor sementara nilai kurs mengalami depresiasi sehingga mengakibatkan kenaikan biaya produksi sebagai akibat kenaikan biaya produksi dari barang yang diimpor (yuliadi, 2013). dalam studi yang dilakukan oleh pratiwi dan santosa (2012), perubahan perilaku kurs rupiah terhadap dolar amerika banyak dipengaruhi oleh beberapa faktor, di antaranya faktor-faktor agregat makroekonomi dan faktor-faktor nonfundamental seperti faktor risiko suatu negara (country risk) dan faktor kondisi stabilitas politik yang terjadi. beberapa faktor agregat makroekonomi yang disinyalir paling berpengaruh di antaranya, yakni jumlah uang beredar, tingkat inflasi, dan produk domestik bruto. jumlah uang beredar sangat erat kaitannya dengan pergerakan nilai kurs, karena posisi jumlah uang beredar akan sangat mempengaruhi performa nilai suatu mata uang domestik dinilai dalam mata uang valuta asing. inflasi juga dikatakan mempengaruhi perubahan pergerakan nilai kurs karena mewakili nilai daya beli yang terjadi di suatu negara tersebut dan produk domestik bruto yang mewakili nilai hasil produksi barang dan jasa yang terjadi di suatu negara tersebut. berdasarkan studi sebelumnya yang telah dilakukan dengan beberapa metode dan variabel yaitu yang telah dilakukan oleh wibowo dan amir (2005) menunjukkan indeks harga konsumen signifikan dan berpengaruh secara positif terhadap nilai tukar rupiah. sementara produk domestik bruto dan tingkat suku bunga berpengaruh negatif terhadap nilai tukar dan jumlah uang beredar tidak berpengaruh secara signifikan. sedangkan studi pratiwi dan santoso (2012) menunjukkan hal yang sejalan dengan wibowo dan amir (2005) bahwa indeks harga konsumen signifikan dan berpengaruh secara positif. produk domestik bruto dan jumlah uang beredar signifikan dan berpengaruh negatif terhadap kurs mengambang bebas dan tingkat suku bunga signifikan dan berpengaruh secara positif. berbeda halnya dengan oktavia, dkk. (2013) menganalisis kurs dan money supply indonesia menunjukkan bahwa inflasi, produk domestik bruto dan jumlah uang beredar signifikan dan berpengaruh secara positif. sedangkan neraca perdagangan tidak berpengaruh secara signifikan. metode penelitian jenis dan sumber data studi ini menggunakan data dari nilai tukar (kurs) rupiah pada dolar amerika sebagai variabel dependen dan data dari tingkat inflasi, jumlah uang beredar dan peroduk domestik bruto sebagai variabel independen. sampel pada studi ini diambil secara random berpedoman pada beberapa studi terdahulu yang sejenis dan memiliki keterkaitan dengan studi yang diambil pada periode penerapan sistem kurs mengambang terkendali (1990:1-1997:4) dan pada periode penerapan sistem kurs mengambang bebas (1998:1-2013:4) dalam bentuk data triwulan. sumber data dalam studi ini diperoleh dari statistik ekonomi keuangan indonesia (seki) bank indonesia baik dari situs resmi maupun data cetak yang diterbitkan bank indonesia provinsi yogyakarta. data-data yang diperlukan tersebut dikumpulkan dengan melakukan non participant observation, yaitu melakukan pengunduhan (download) dari berbagai situs yang relevan jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 2, oktober 2014: 127-134 130 dengan kesesuaian kebutuhan data, mencatat dan atau menyalin data dari berbagai publikasi dan laporan keuangan. analisis data data studi ini menggunakan data time series dalam bentuk data triwulan selama dua periode, yaitu periode penerapan sistem kurs mengambang terkendali dan periode penerapan sistem kurs mengambang bebas dengan analisis kuantitatif. metode analisis yang digunakan dalam studi ini dengan regresi linear berganda dan uji chow. adapun persamaan dari beberapa variabel yang digunakan dalam studi maka dapat dibuat suatu model studi sebagai berikut: lny = β0 + β1 x1 + β2 lnx2 + β3 lnx3 1) di mana: y adalah variabel kurs rupiah terhadap dolar amerika; adalah konstanta; , , adalah koefisien variabel 1,2,3; adalah variabel tingkat inflasi; adalah jub indonesia; adalah variabel pdb indonesia. analisis dengan pendekatan regresi linear berganda dan uji chow menggunakan alur penyelesaian dengan beberapa urutan langkah pengujian sebagai berikut: uji kualitas data uji autokorelasi. jika terjadi korelasi, maka dinamakan problem autokorelasi. autokorelasi muncul karena observasi yang berurutan sepanjang waktu berkaitan satu sama lain. masalah ini timbul karena residual (kesalahan pengganggu) tidak bebas dari satu observasi ke observasi lainnya. pada studi ini menggunakan uji durbin–watson (dw test). uji durbin watson hanya digunakan untuk autokorelasi tingkat satu dan mensyaratkan adanya konstanta dalam model regresi dan tidak ada varibel di antara variabel independen. uji heteroskedastisitas. uji heteroskedastitas bertujuan untuk menguji apakah dalam model regresi terjadi ketidaksamaan variance dari residual satu pengamatan ke pengamatan lainnya. model regresi yang baik adalah tidak adanya heteroskedastisitas. akibat dari adanya heteroskedastisitas pada hasil regresi pada data adalah dapat menimbulkan varians yang tidak lagi minimum, pengujian dari koefisien regresi menjadi kurang kuat, koefisien penaksir menjadi bias, dan kesimpulan yang diambil menjadi salah. studi ini menggunakakan uji white heteroskedastisitas dengan menggunakan dasar pengambilan keputusan sebagai berikut: jika obs*r-squared < α 0,05 terdapat masalah heteroskedastisitas. sedangkan jika obs*rsquared > α 0,05 tidak terdapat masalah heteroskedastisitas. uji multikolinearitas. untuk mengetahui apakah variabel-variabel independen mengandung multikolinearitas atau tidak maka dapat diketahui dengan melakukan estimasi regresi salah satu variabel independen dengan variabel independen lainnya. langkah selanjutnya membandingkan hasil r-squared setiap hasil estimasi dengan berdasar pada ketentuan perbandingan dari r-squared r1, r2, r3, dan r4 yaitu dengan dengan menggunakan asumsi: apabila nilai r1 > r2, r3, r4, r5 maka model tidak ditemukan adanya multikolinearitas. apabila nilai r1 < r2, r3, r4,r5 maka model ditemukan adanya multikolinearitas. uji hipotesis uji f. uji ini digunakan untuk mengetahui apakah variabel independen secara bersamasama berpengaruh terhadap variabel dependen. atau untuk mengetahui apakah model regresi dapat digunakan untuk memprediksi variabel dependen atau tidak. uji f dapat dilakukan baik secara simultan maupun parsial. uji t. uji ini digunakan untuk mengetahui apakah dalam model regresi variabel independen secara parsial mempengaruhi variabel dependen secara signifikan. untuk mengetahui signifikansi, uji ini membandingkan antara t hitung dan t tabel. apabila t hitung > t tabel maka variabel independen secara bersama-sama memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap variabel dependen. hasil dan pembahasan pembagian data menjadi dua kelompok data di lakukan dikarenakan pada data terdapat pergerakan nilai tukar rupiah (ferdy ardiyanto, ahmad ma’ruf) 131 adanya structural break akibat perubahan kebijakan penerapan sistem nilai tukar pada 14 agustus 1997. observasi yang dilakukan pada variabelvariabel yang terkait dan menemukan bahwa efek structural break akibat perubahan kebijakan penerapan sistem nilai tukar pada 14 agustus 1997 mulai berdampak pada sektor ekonomi di awal tahun 1998. hal ini dibuktikan dengan hasil estimasi regresi yang tidak signifikan pada range data 1990q1-1997q3, tampak dalam tabel 1. melalui grafik cusum test, menunjukkan bahwa efek structural break mulai terjadi pada 1998, sehingga peneliti membagi ke dalam dua kelompok data dengan range yaitu data tahun 1990q1-1997q4 dan data tahun 1998q1-2013q4.   gambar 1. analisis struktural break sebelumnya telah dilakukan deskripsi data pada penerapan periode sistem nilai tukar mengambang terkendali diperoleh jumlah observasi atau range sebanyak 32 data. sementara pada penerapan periode sistem nilai tukar mengambang bebas adalah sebanyak 66 data. hal ini dilakukan karena terjadinya efek struktural break yang terjadi pada tahun 1998, yang mengharuskan peneliti mengelompokkannya menjadi dua kelompok data range. uji kualitas data uji autokorelasi dilakukan dengan uji durbin-watson periode penerapan sistem nilai tukar mengambang terkendali menunjukkan nilai sebesar dw = 1,978, sehingga hipotesis nul (h0) ditolak dan tidak terdapat masalah pada asumsi autokorelasi. sementara hasil uji durbinwatson pada periode penerapan sistem nilai tukar mengambang bebas menunjukkan nilai sebesar dw = 1,78, sehingga hipotesis nul (h0) ditolak dan tidak terdapat masalah pada asumsi autokorelasi. uji heteroskedastisitas dilakukan dengan uji white, hasil pengujian menunjukkan nilai probalitas obs*r-squared sebesar 0,3217 > 0,05 artinya hipotesis nul ditolak dan tidak terdapat masalah heteroskedastisitas dalam periode penerapan sistem nilai tukar mengambang terkendali. begitu pula dengan periode penerapan sistem nilai tukar mengambang bebas, setelah dilakukan uji white menunjukkan nilai probabilitas obs*r-squared sebesar 0,2914 > 0,05 artinya hipotesis nul ditolak dan tidak terdapat masalah heteroskedastisitas dalam periode penerapan sistem nilai tukar mengambang bebas. uji multikolinearitas pada data periode penerapan sistem nilai tukar mengambang terkendali diperoleh r1 sebesar 0,762, r2 sebesar 0,017, r3 sebesar 0,64 dan r4 sebesar 0,54 yang menunjukkan nilai r1 > r2, r3, r4 sehingga hipotesis nul ditolak dan terbebas dari asumsi multikolinearitas. sementara pengujian multikolinearitas pada periode penerapan sistem nilai tukar mengambang bebas diperoleh r1 sebesar tabel 1. hasil estimasi data periode 1990q1 1997q3 variabel koefisien standar eror t-statistik probabilitas konstanta 4,9231 1,275 3,860 0,0006 lninf 0,0073 0,008 0,853 0,4009 lnjub 0,2810 0,127 2,209 0,0358 lnpdb -0,0716 0,203 -0,086 0,9314 r-squared 0,7817 f-statistic 30,24207 rss 0,0843 prob(f-statistic) 0,000000 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 2, oktober 2014: 127-134 132 0,245, r2 sebesar 0,187, r3 sebesar 0,156, r4 sebesar 0,216 yang menunjukkan r1 > r2, r3, r4 dan hipotesis nul ditolak dan terbebas dari asumsi multikolinearitas. hasil estimasi data pada tabel 2 menunjukkan bahwa variabel inflasi dan jumlah uang beredar signifikan dan berpengaruh terhadap kurs rupiah pada dolar as, seperti yang ditunjukkan oleh tabel 2. hasil uji hipotesis penerapan sistem nilai tukar mengambang terkendali. uji f yang didapatkan dari hasil penerapan sistem nilai tukar mengambang terkendali menunjukkan nilai probabilitas fstatistik sebesar 0,000 < 0,05. hal ini berarti bahwa hipotesis nul ditolak dan dapat disimpulkan bahwa variabel-variabel bebas mempengaruhi variabel bebas secara simultan dan signifikan. uji t pada penerapan sistem nilai tukar mengambang terkendali menunjukkan variabel inflasi signifikan dan berpengaruh positif terhadap kurs rupiah pada dolar as dengan tingkat probabilitas sebesar 0,0017 < 0,05. signifikansi juga terjadi pada variabel jumlah uang beredar dan berpengaruh positif terhadap kurs rupiah pada dolar as dengan tingkat probabilitas sebesar 0,0001 < 0,05. hal ini berbeda dengan variabel pdb signifikan dan berpengaruh negatif terhadap kurs rupiah pada dolar as dengan tingkat probabilitas sebesar -0,0175 < 0,05. uji koefisien determinasi (r2) pada penerapan sistem nilai tukar mengambang terkendali diperoleh r-square sebesar 0,762. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa sebesar 76,2% variabel independen berpengaruh variabel dependen dan 23,8% dipengaruhi oleh faktor-faktor lain di luar model yang digunakan. penerapan sistem nilai tukar mengambang bebas. uji f yang didapatkan dari hasil penerapan sistem nilai tukar mengambang bebas menunjukkan hasil yang sama dengan sistem nilai tukar mengambang terkendali yaitu nilai probabilitas f-statistik sebesar 0,000 < 0,05. hal ini berarti bahwa hipotesis nul ditolak dan dapat disimpulkan bahwa variabel-variabel bebas mempengaruhi variabel bebas secara simultan dan signifikan. uji t pada penerapan sistem mengambang bebas hasil estimasinya menunjukkan hasil yang tidak jauh berbeda yaitu variabel inflasi signifikan dan berpengaruh positif terhadap kurs rupiah pada dolar as dengan probabilitas sebesar 0,0004 < 0,05. pada variabel jumlah uang beredar telah signifikan dan berpengaruh positif terhadap kurs rupiah pada dolar as dengan tingkat probabilitas sebesar 0,014 < 0,05. sementara variabel pdb signifikan dan berpengaruh negatif terhadap kurs rupiah pada dolar as. namun ada suatu hal yang kurang memuaskan pada nilai koefisien determinasi (r2) pada penerapan sistem nilai tukar mengambang bebas sebesar 0,245. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa hanya 24,5% variabel independen berpengaruh terhadap variabel dependen dan 75,5% dipengaruhi oleh faktor-faktor lain di luar model yang digunakan. uji chow hasil residual sum square (rss) sektor gabungan diperoleh nilai f hitung sebesar 90,17 dan f tabel sebesar 2,48, sehingga hal ini menunjukkan f hitung > f tabel. ketika f hitung > f tabel maka hipotesis nul ditolak dan dapat disimpulkan bahwa terdapat perbedaan pengaruh variabel-variabel independen secara simultan terhadap variabel dependen pada tabel 2. estimasi data periode penerapan sistem nilai tukar mengambang terkendali variabel koefisien standar eror t-statistik probabilitas konstanta 8,575 1,868 4,588 0,0001*** lninf 0,040 0,011 3,480 0,0017** lnjub 0,762 0,170 4,463 0,0001*** lnpdb -0,716 0,283 -2,524 0,0175*** r-squared 0,762 f-statistic 30,01 rss 0,228 prob(f-statistic) 0,000000 keterangan: *** signifikan pada α=1%; **signifikan pada α=5%; *signifikan pada α=5% pergerakan nilai tukar rupiah (ferdy ardiyanto, ahmad ma’ruf) 133 periode penerapan sistem nilai tukar mengambang terkendali dan periode penerapan sistem nilai tukar mengambang bebas. pengaruh inflasi terhadap kurs. pengaruh inflasi terhadap kurs, dari hasil uji hipotesis, baik pada periode penerapan sistem nilai tukar mengambang terkendali maupun pada periode penerapan sistem nilai tukar mengambang bebas dapat disimpulkan bahwa variabel inflasi berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap pergerakan kurs di indonesia. koefisien inflasi mempunyai pengaruh positif terhadap pergerakan kurs di indonesia. dengan begitu secara fungsional dapat dikatakan bahwa apabila inflasi meningkat maka akan mengakibatkan meningkatnya nilai kurs di indonesia, dengan kata lain korelasi antara inflasi dengan kurs berbanding lurus. pengaruh jumlah uang beredar terhadap kurs. pengaruh jumlah uang beredar terhadap kurs, dari hasil uji hipotesis, baik pada periode penerapan sistem nilai tukar mengambang terkendali maupun pada periode penerapan sistem nilai tukar mengambang bebas dapat disimpulkan bahwa variabel jumlah uang beredar berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap pergerakan kurs di indonesia. koefisien jumlah uang beredar mempunyai pengaruh positif terhadap pergerakan kurs di indonesia. dengan begitu secara fungsional dapat dikatakan bahwa apabila jumlah uang beredar meningkat maka akan mengakibatkan meningkatnya nilai kurs di indonesia, dengan kata lain korelasi antara jumlah uang beredar dengan kurs berbanding lurus. pengaruh produk domestik bruto terhadap kurs. pengaruh peroduk domestik bruto terhadap kurs, dari hasil uji hipotesis, baik pada periode penerapan sistem nilai tukar mengambang terkendali maupun pada periode penerapan sistem nilai tukar mengambang bebas dapat disimpulkan bahwa variabel jumlah uang beredar berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap pergerakan kurs di indonesia. koefisien jumlah uang beredar mempunyai pengaruh negatif terhadap pergerakan kurs di indonesia. dengan begitu secara fungsional dapat dikatakan bahwa apabila jumlah uang beredar meningkat maka akan mengakibatkan turunnya nilai kurs di indonesia, dengan kata lain korelasi antara jumlah uang beredar dengan kurs berbanding terbalik. simpulan berdasarkan hasil estimasi dengan regresi linear berganda dan uji chow diperoleh beberapa kesimpulan: pertama, hasil pengujian variabel dependen pada periode penerapan sistem nilai tukar mengambang terkendali dan mengambang bebas yaitu nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar amerika, berdasarkan uji f pada kedua periode tersebut dapat diketahui bahwa terdapat pengaruh yang signifikan secara bersama-sama (simultan) variabel independen yaitu inflasi, jumlah uang beredar (m1) dan produk domestik bruto terhadap nilai tukar rupiah pada dolar amerika. kedua, berdasarkan hasil uji t (uji secara parsial) pada periode penerapan sistem nilai tukar mengambang terkendali dan mengambang bebas sebelum diterapkannya free floating exchange rate system dapat disimpulkan variabel inflasi berpengaruh signifikan secara positif terhadap kurs, variabel jumlah uang beredar (m1) berpengaruh signifikan secara positif tabel 3. estimasi data periode penerapan sistem nilai tukar mengambang bebas variabel koefisien standar eror t-statistik probabilitas konstanta 16,771 3,993 4,199 0,0001*** lninf 0,013 0,003 3,790 0,0004*** lnjub 0,431 0,171 2,514 0,0146** lnpdb -1,004 0,470 -2,135 0,0368** r-squared 0,245 f-statistic 6,522 rss 0,671 prob(f-statistic) 0,000683 keterangan: *** signifikan pada α=1%; ** signifikan pada α=5% sumber: data diolah jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 2, oktober 2014: 127-134 134 terhadap kurs dan variabel produk domestik bruto berpengaruh signifikan secara negatif terhadap kurs pada dua periode penerapan kebijakan sistem nilai tukar tersebut. ketiga, berdasarkan hasil perhitungan pada uji chow, dapat disimpulkan bahwa terdapat perbedaan pengaruh variabel-variabel independen secara simultan yang sangat signifikan yaitu inflasi, jumlah uang beredar dan produk domestik bruto terhadap variabel dependen yaitu kurs pada periode penerapan sistem nilai tukar mengambang terkendali dan periode penerapan sistem nilai tukar mengambang bebas. daftar pustaka deliarnov. (2006). ekonomi politik. jakarta: erlangga. imansyah, h.m. (2007). kebijakan inflation targeting: antisipasi krisis nilai tukar. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan, volume 8, nomor 2: 162-170. oktavia, a.l, sentosa, u.s., dan aimon, h. (2013). analisis kurs dan money supply di indonesia, padang. pratiwi, t.e dan santosa, p.b. (2012). analisis perilaku kurs rupiah (idr) terhadap dolar amerika (usd) pada sistem kurs mengambang bebas di indonesia periode 1997.3–2011.4. skripsi. semarang: undip. priyanto, d. (2008). mandiri belajar spss. yogyakarta: mediakom. rosadi, d. (2011). ekonometrika dan analisis runtun waktu terapan. yogyakarta: c.v andi offset. samuelson, p.a., dan nordhaus w.d. (1996). makro-ekonomi. jakarta: erlangga. wibowo, t., dan amir, h. (2005). faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi nilai tukar rupiah. jakarta: departemen keuangan. yuliadi, i. (2013). analisis inflasi di indonesia; seleksi model ekonometrika. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, volume 14, nomor 1: 43-53. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 21 nomor 2, oktober 2020 article type: research paper an integrated pest management system development: an economic valuation analysis nur yulia syarif1* and waridin2 abstract: this study aims to determine the socio-economic characteristics of tajuk village farmers and determine the conditions as well as management of agriculture on broccoli and cabbage vegetables, also designing alternative proposals for management of conventional farming systems into agriculture using an integrated pest management system in tajuk village, semarang district. by using mix method, a combination of qualitative and quantitative approaches, the research was to determine the amount of farmers’ willingness to pay using the contingent valuation method and see the benefits that could be obtained with a different farming system. the results showed that by using the willingness to pay (wtp) analysis, there were 94.55% of farmers in tajuk village who were willing to pay the value of the offer given. thus, it obtained an average value of wtp of idr 41,000 with a total value of wtp on changes in the integrated pest management system of idr 3,034,000 per harvest. besides, the total annual wtp value was idr 6,068,000. this wtp value can be used as the cost of planning the development of an integrated pest management system in tajuk village by collaborating with the development plan by the stakeholders in the planned program involvement. the stakeholders classified as key players were the agriculture and plantation office, horticultural food crops research institute (bptph), pest disease control (php), plant disturbing organism observers (popt), and head of farmer groups. the actors were the village authority, sub-district authority, and business people. while academics act as context setters. keywords: integrated pest management system; willingness to pay; stakeholders; agricultural; tajuk village jel classification: q10; q16; q51 introduction the agricultural sector's role in the country's economic development is essential because most people in a developing country depend on agriculture. if planners earnestly pay attention to its people's welfare, one of the methods is to improve agricultural people's welfare. this method can be achieved by increasing their received price upon the agricultural products. increasing agricultural product price means that the quality of the agricultural products needs to be improved to possess a higher economic value, which then increases agricultural people's income and their welfare. affiliation: 1, 2 department of economics, faculty of economics and business, universitas diponegoro, semarang, indonesia. *correspondence: nasutionyulia4@gmail.com this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.21.2.5042 citation: syarif, n. y., & waridin. (2020). an integrated pest management system development: an economic valuation analysis. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 21(2), 208-221. article history received: 13 dec 2019 reviewed: 07 july 2020 revised: 12 aug 2020 accepted: 11 oct 2020 mailto:nasutionyulia4@gmail.com http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/7872 http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp syarif & waridin an integrated pest management system development: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 209 with a total citizen of more than 240 million and a growing degree of approximately 1.7% per year, indonesia needs more diverse crops. the improvement of crop quality and quantity is necessary to maintain the stability of the national crop. product domestic bruto growth of the agricultural sector experienced a declining trend from 2010 to 2018 (badan pusat statistik, 2018). it showed that there were productivity problems from indonesian farmers. increased agricultural production output was affected by agricultural input factors such as labor, technology, land, management, and capital (dewi, utama, & yuliarmi, 2017). (adhitya, hartono, & awirya, 2013) in their study found that some of the agricultural inputs that positively affected the crop productivity were capital, research budget and agricultural development, and agriculture land. meanwhile, factors that negatively affected crop productivity were urea fertilizer usage and labor. a study by akbar also stated that paddy crops were negatively affected by urea fertilizer usage. (andayani, 2016) added that inorganic fertilizers negatively affected red chili crop productivity, but an appropriate usage of pesticides positively affected crop productivity. (masithoh, 2013) stated that extensive use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides has to be reduced because it was economically inefficient and technically caused a decrease in crop production. agrochemicals usage (fertilizers and pesticides) was included in modern agriculture that supports instant and faster agricultural production (srivastav, 2020). however, chemical usage will reduce soil fertility and pollute water (environmental pollution) (philippe, neveen, marwa, & basel, 2021). besides, agrochemical usage has harmful effects (i) harmful for farmers’ health (yuantari, widianarko, & rya, 2015) and; (ii) for consumers’ health such as cancer, kidney, infertility in both men and women, hormonal disorders, neuron disorder, and immune system disorders (srivastav, 2020). nevertheless, chemical fertilizers and pesticides have been increasing agricultural production for the last century (kılıç, boz, & eryılmaz, 2020). therefore, chemical fertilizer and pesticide usage are vital for agricultural production, especially in developing countries (loha, lamoree, weiss, & de boer, 2018). various literature regarding agrochemicals as the factor affecting agricultural productivity may empirically illustrate that agrochemicals are widely used by indonesian farmers. however, agrochemical usage's adverse effects are inefficient work, environmental pollution (land, water), and human health (farmers and consumers). ineffective and inefficient benefits and weaknesses of agrochemicals encourage the government in introducing the integrated pest control program since 1997/1998 according to the act no. 12 of 1992 regarding plant cultivation system and pp no. 6 of 1995 regarding plant protection (agustian & benny, 2015). the ipc program aims to control the pest attack with an integrated control technique to prevent economic loss and environmental damage and create sustainable agriculture (sari, fatchiya, & tjitropranoto, 2016). the success key of ipc implementation is agricultural managers' knowledge of plant pests, plant cultivation (appropriate fertilizing, excellent tillage, superior seeds choice, and pruning postharvesting), and its interaction with environmental factors (area). the study result of (mariyono & irham, 2010) showed the ipc program that had successfully reduce chemical pesticides in paddy and soy in yogyakarta. the ipc successfully saved production and syarif & waridin an integrated pest management system development: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 210 external costs. this program also successfully increased the farmers' health. a study by (agustian & benny, 2015) regarding the ipc program implemented by farmers explained that the ipc program was relatively well-implemented by farmers, though its implementation was incomplete due to internal and external obstacles. also, the ipc technology implementation on plantation commodity improved profit more than the improved costs (sari et al., 2016). the ipc implementation in a study (agustian & benny, 2015) explained as an integrated activity between the central and local, in which its execution involving the role of local government, department, and field farmers, where the ipc organization is one of the sekolah lapang pengendalian hama terpadu (slpht) activity outcomes sourced from the central and local budgets. the ipc organization scope involved stakeholders with a role in agricultural development. the presence of partnerships on all stakeholders may increase awareness of existing problems and responsibility in making decisions. the success in partnership has to be accompanied by resources development and management implementation (rani, 2019). stakeholders are individuals, organizations, or groups that may be affected by activity and involved in the decision-making process (rani, 2009). meanwhile, according to (pomeroy, katon, & harkes, 2001), stakeholders are individuals, organizations, or groups that are involved, interested, or affected (either positive or negative) by a specific activity. semarang is an area with agricultural potential. the agriculture sector in semarang is mainly located in semarang regency. it is caused by the semarang regency contour that is suitable for the agriculture sector. statistics indonesia explained that vegetable production in semarang regency in 2010-2018 was dominated by cabbage that reached 370,799 quintals in 2016, followed by a decrease to 300,127 quintals in 2017. fruits and vegetable productions in semarang regency in 2011-2016 explained a stagnant condition of vegetable production from 2011 to 2015 that ranged from 1,000,000 quintals to 1,200,000 quintals but followed by an increase in 2016 to 1,600,000 quintals (badan pusat statistik, 2018). tajuk village, getasan sub-district, semarang regency is one of the villages which its citizens work as farmers. statistics indonesia explained that getasan sub-district is the third-biggest fruit producer in semarang regency with 91,423 quintals. tajuk village farmers realize the danger of chemical usage in eradicating pests using inorganic fertilizers and medicines that may destroy soil nutrients. vegetable farmers in tajuk village have created a group to converse the old system into the new one, implementing the integrated pest control system. however, the program has not been executed well. the economic assessment to understand the ipc program execution in the agricultural system can be carried out through economic valuation. the economic valuation is used to conduct economic instruments using a particular assessment technique to estimate the monetary value of goods and services given by a natural resource (hadad, 2012). the economic valuation is based on the economic value defined as the maximum amount of one's sacrifice for their goods and services to obtain other goods and services. the economic valuation used in estimating farmers' willingness to implement the ipc program can be analyzed with the contingent valuation method (dependent) where the syarif & waridin an integrated pest management system development: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 211 information received is highly dependent on the built hypothesis. farmers need the decision to determine the maximum sacrifice in the form of production cost that they can give to adopt the new system (adnyana, 2016). yana (2016) then explained further that price agreed by users plays a significant role in the farmer's decision making as a buyer to determine the maximum price to be paid upon a product to be sold. further study is needed to understand the farmers' willingness in executing the ipc program, considering that other studies often discussed the execution impact of slpht, instead of farmers' willingness in tajuk village to well-executing the ipc program. therefore, it is necessary to analyze the farmers' willingness to develop an organic-based agricultural system and understand stakeholders' role in maintaining ipc execution in tajuk village. based on the background, this study aimed to estimate the farmers' willingness to pay in implementing the ipc program in tajuk village and analyze the stakeholders' role in the ipc program execution in tajuk village. research method study site this study was conducted at tajuk village getasan sub-district semarang regency. tajuk village citizens’ occupation is mainly farmers or growers, with 46.5 percent or 1919 people who work as farmers. the study site was chosen because tajuk village is one of the villages that realize the potential and extra awareness to change the sustainable agricultural system to improve the quality of vegetable plants, minimalize loss due to pests, and maintain soil fertility. figure 1 tajuk village area data this study used primary data collected from a direct interview with key informants (farmers) and key persons (stakeholders). the sampling technique used was purposive syarif & waridin an integrated pest management system development: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 212 sampling, where samples were collected based on predetermined criteria (sekaran & bougie, 2017). key persons selected in the study were farmers who plant similar vegetables, i.e., broccoli, cabbage, and chinese cabbage in tajuk village with a total of 74 respondents, while key informants collected in this study were eight respondents involved in an institution or organization that has a role in developing the integrated control system. analysis method the descriptive analysis was applied to understand the socio-economic characteristics of key informants (farmers), the contingent valuation method analysis using the willingness to pay method to estimate farmers’ willingness in implementing the organic system, and stakeholder analysis used to analyze the role and importance of stakeholders as actors in developing the integrated control system. contingent valuation method the willingness to pay approach used to understand the farmers’ willingness to pay will determine their decision to pay for a new product (adnyana & wardana, 2016) (priyambodo, 2017). the new product in this study was the vegetable products produced using a new system, i.e., organic system. the first step in using the cvm method was giving an illustration to respondents regarding the benefits of producing crops using the organic system. the second step, the bid determination offered by respondents in this study using the bidding game technique. this technique was implemented by giving a bid to respondents from the lowest to the highest value. the bid offered to respondents came from production cost components and longand short-term equipment. in the third step, the wtp average calculation was from the total wtp divided by the total respondents (fauzi, 2004). the last step in this study was aggregating the converted bidding average from sample average to overall population average. one way to convert this value is by multiplying the sample average with the total population (n). the people wtp total value can be calculated using the following formula (fauzi, 2004). 𝐸𝑊𝑇𝑃 = ∑ 𝑊𝑖𝑛𝑖=1 𝑛 the final stage of this research is to aggregate the auction mean that was converted by the sample mean data to population data overall. one way to convert this is to multiply the sample mean by the population number (n). the total value of citizens wtp could be calculated using the following formula (fauzi, 2004). stakeholder analysis stakeholder analysis is done with the aim to analyze the level of importance and the influence of each stakeholder in the development of an integrated pest control system. the plan of the system development involves nine incorporated stakeholders. these stakeholders include the department of agriculture and plantation, horticultural food syarif & waridin an integrated pest management system development: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 213 crops research institute (bptph), pest and disease control (php), officers of plant disturbing organism controller (popt), organic plant entrepreneurs, village authorities, sub-district authorities, head of farmers groups and academics. stakeholder analysis is carried out by key informants from the main stakeholder. the results are critical to know their interests and concerns and to be organized and able to participate in decision making (pomeroy & rivera-guieb, 2005). the steps in stakeholder analysis are as follows (rani, 2019): 1. identify stakeholders 2. assessing the influence, interests, and potential impacts of stakeholders. 3. distinguish and categorize stakeholders based on interests. 4. knowing the relationship of stakeholders stakeholder assessment uses mactor software, which is assessed using a likert scale, namely the value of +4 or -4 (strongly agree or strongly disagree), +3 or -3 (strongly agree or strongly disagree), +2 or -2 (agree or disagree), +1 or -1 (somewhat agree or slightly disagree) and 0 = neutral. mactor is intended to influence concept development (bendahan, 2003). stakeholder analysis mapping consists of 4 quadrants, namely context setters, key players, subjects, and crowd (rani, 2009). result and discussion farmers in tajuk village still believe that chemical pesticides eradicate pests rapidly without considering future impacts. however, three farmer groups have been established that realize the importance of agricultural system change to maintain the environment and soil fertility to achieve higher economic value from the generated output. these farmer groups were mekar anom, mekar asih, and ngudi lestari. the table 1 is the socioeconomic characteristics of farmer group members created to convert the conventional agricultural system to organic agriculture. table 1 socio-economic characteristics of farmers in tajuk village respondent characteristics frequencies percentages (n = 74) age 20-40 34 45.9 mean = 40.3 41-60 40 54.1 max = 57 >60 0 min = 19 gender male 46 62.2 female 28 37.8 marital status merried 69 93.2 single 5 6.8 land area <900 m2 14 18.2 mean = 2,727.7 1,000 – 5,000 m 2 55 74.3 max = 10,000 5,500 – 10,000 m 2 5 6.8 min = 400 >10,000 m 2 0 0.0 education level primary 40 54.1 mean = 8 junior high 18 24.3 max = 6 senior high 16 21.6 min = 12 source: derived from field data, 2019 syarif & waridin an integrated pest management system development: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 214 analysis of contingent valuation method the technique used in this study to determine the value of wtp is the bidding game approach, where this technique is applied by providing a bid value to respondents from a small value to a large one. bidding games are included in closed questions where this technique makes it easier for respondents to answer bid questions that are willing to be accepted and this technique has another advantage, which is to minimize bias when respondents state the value they are willing to pay compared to using the open-ended method (whitehead & haab, 2013). this technique is easier for respondents because it helps respondents to consider their preferences carefully with iterations that are asked with several yes and no rounds, which are then, in the end, asked, "how much money are willing to be paid in order to implement an organic farming system" (tresnadi, 2000). the bid value given to respondents comes from the component of production costs and the short-term and long-term component of tool costs. table 2 calculation of the component of cost and tools in scenario 1 (per harvest time) component unit volume price total quality seeds 4705 plants 1,000m2 rp 60/plant rp 282,300 fertilizer 20 kg 1,000m2 rp 25,000/20kg rp 1,250,000 liquid organic fertilizer (ferinsa) 6 l 1,000m2 rp 10,000/l rp 60,000 mikro organisme local 2 l 1,000m2 rp 10,000/l rp 20,000 organic pesticide (daun suren) 5 l 1,000m2 rp 5,000/l rp 25,000 physical and machanical control : plastic mulch 20 kg 1,000m2 rp 30,000/kg rp 600,000 mini green house 76 unit 1,000m2 rp 20,000/unit rp 1,520,000 planting hoe 2 unit 1,000m2 rp 75,000/unit rp 150,000 watering plants (gembor) 2 unit 1,000m2 rp 60,000/unit rp 120,000 sickle (sabit) 1 unit 1,000m2 rp 30,000/unit rp 30,000 sprayer electric 1 unit 1,000m2 rp 650,000/unit rp 650,000 total rp 4,707,300 source: derived from field data, 2019. calculation in scenario 1 the amount of the willingness to pay value, there is a component of the cost of the tools, which includes planting hoe, electric sprayer, plastic mulch, watering plants, sickle, and mini greenhouse. the component of the tools has economic value that can be calculated in terms of its economic life. after knowing the economic value of each tool, it can be calculated the bid value given to respondents who come from maintenance costs (seeds, fertilizers, pesticides) plus short-term maintenance costs. the following is scenario calculation 1: syarif & waridin an integrated pest management system development: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 215 table 3 calculations for maintenance of tools in short-term tools amount (unit/kg) purchase/ unit (rp) total price estimated economic value (year) depreciation cost planting hoe 2 unit rp 75,000 rp 150,000 5 rp 30,000 plastic bucket 2 unit rp 35,000 rp 70,000 5 rp 14,000 sprayer electric 1 unit rp 650,000 rp 650,000 5 rp 130,000 mini green house 1 unit rp 1,250,000 rp 1,250,000 1 rp 1,250,000 watering plants (gembor) 2 unit rp 60,000 rp 120,000 5 rp 24,000 sickle (sabit) 1 unit rp 75,000 rp 75,000 3 rp 25,000 plastic mulch 20 kg rp 30,000 rp 600,000 1 rp 600,000 rp 2,073,000 total depreciation cost (per year) total depreciation cost (per harvest time) rp 1,036,500 the tools needed have economic value according to the economic life of each tool. table 3 explains the calculation of the estimated depreciation expense of each tool, which has an economic life of fewer than five years in the form of hoe, bucket, electric sprayer, minigreenhouse, watering can, sickle, and plastic mulch. table 4 calculations for scenario 1 component total maintenance cost (seeds, fertilizer, pesticide) rp 1,637,300 cost of tools rp 1,036,500 total rp 2,673,800 total price: farmers rp 2,673,800: 74 bid skenario 1 rp 36,132,432 table 5 calculation of the component of cost and tools in scenario 2 (harvest time) component unit volume price total quality seeds 4705 plants 1,000m2 rp 60/plant rp 282,300 fertilizer 20 kg 1,000m2 rp 25,000/20kg rp 1,250,000 liquid organic fertilizer (ferinsa) 6 l 1,000m2 rp 10,000/l rp 60,000 micro organism local 2 l 1,000m2 rp 10,000/l rp 20,000 solid pesticide (agency hayati): beauveria basiana 3 pack 1,000m2 rp 5,000/ pack rp 15,000 metarizium 3 pack 1,000m2 rp 5,000/ pack rp 15,000 trikoderma 3 pack 1,000m2 rp 5,000/ pack rp 15,000 gliokladium 3 pack 1,000m2 rp 5,000/ pack rp 15,000 liquid pesticide : organic pesticide (daun suren) 5 l 1,000m2 rp 5,000/l rp 250,000 pgpr (plant growth promoting rizobacterium) 2 l 1,000m2 rp 10,000/l rp 20,000 refugia 100 plants 1,000m2 rp 1,000/plant rp 100,000 physical and machanical : plastic mulch 20 kg 1,000m2 rp 30,000/kg rp 600,000 green house 1 unit 1,000m2 rp 15,000.000/unit rp 15,000,000 planting hoe 2 unit 1,000m2 rp 75,000/unit rp 150,000 watering plants (gembor) 2 unit 1,000m2 rp 60,000/unit rp 120,000 sickle (sabit) 1 unit 1,000m2 rp 30,000/unit rp 30,000 sprayer electric 1 unit 1,000m2 rp 650,000/unit rp 650,000 total rp 18,592,300 scenario 1 is obtained from the component of maintenance cost and the component cost of tools for short-term for less than five years divided by the total number of farmers who syarif & waridin an integrated pest management system development: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 216 want to convert organic-based farming systems. while scenario 2 is obtained from the component of maintenance costs and the component cost of tools for long-term divided by the total respondents. the calculation table of bid values 2 in table 5. calculation in scenario 2 the amount of the willingness to pay value, there is a component of the cost of the tools, including hoe, electric sprayer, mulch, watering can, sickle, and mini greenhouse. the component of the tools has economic value that can be calculated in terms of its economic life. table 6 calculation for maintenance of tools in long-term tools amount (unit/kg) purchase per unit (rp) total price estimated economic value (year) depreciation cost planting hoe 2 unit rp 75,000 rp 15,000 5 rp 30,000 plastic bucket 2 unit rp 35,000 rp 70,000 5 rp 14,000 sprayer electric 1 unit rp 650,000 rp 650,000 5 rp 130,000 green house 1 unit rp 15,000,000 rp 15,000,000 7 rp 2,142,857 wateringplants (gembor) 2 unit rp 60,000 rp 120,000 5 rp 24,000 sickle (sabit) 1 unit rp 75,000 rp 75,000 3 rp 25,000 plastic mulch 20 kg rp 30,000 rp 600,000 1 rp 600,000 total depreciation cost (per year) rp 2,965,857 total depreciation cost (per harvest time) rp 1,482,929 after knowing the economic value of each tool, it can be calculated the bid value given to respondents who come from maintenance costs (seeds, fertilizers, pesticides) plus longterm maintenance costs. table 7 calculations for scenario 2 component total maintenance cost (seeds, fertilizer, pesticide) rp 1,637,300 cost of tools rp 1,482,929 total rp 3,120,229 total price: farmers rp 3,120,229: 74 bid scenario 2 rp 42,165,257 scenario 2 is obtained from the component of maintenance cost (fertilizers, seeds, and pesticides) and the component cost of tools for more than five years divided by the total number of farmers who want to change the conventional farming system with a better system that is organic based-system. the results of the calculations of bid value of scenario 2 are idr 42,165,257 offered bid the offered bids in the study comprised two choices, scenario 1 of idr 36,132 and scenario 2 of idr 42,162. respondents were given repeated questions to determine which value to choose where scenario 1 had a short-term financing estimation that includes the financing of superior seeds, manure, liquid organic fertilizer, local microorganism, usage syarif & waridin an integrated pest management system development: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 217 of 1 type of pesticide, and construction of a mini greenhouse. meanwhile, scenario 2 had a long-term financing estimation that includes the financing of superior seeds, manure, liquid organic fertilizer, local microorganism, usage of 7 types of pesticides, and construction of a greenhouse. respondents were given the option to choose the favorable bid and given an option not to choose either of them. calculating wtp average table 8 distribution of wtp value of respondents who are willing to pay wtp respondent percentage (%) wtp x respondents who are willing to pay rp 36,132 23 33.8 rp 831,045 rp 42,165 45 66.2 rp 1,897,436 total 68 100 rp 2,728,481 to obtain the average value of wtp using the following calculation: 𝐸𝑊𝑇𝑃 = 𝐼𝐷𝑅 2,728,481 68 ewtp = idr 40,124 ewtp = idr 41,000 (rounded off) the average value of the wtp can be used as a reference in developing the conventional systems into organic plant systems that initially still use chemicals substances then change the system using the integrated pest control system charged to vegetable farmers in the tajuk village, getasan sub-district, semarang regency. based on the interviews that have been conducted, 68 respondents are willing to pay more to buy the tools and components needed for the system development of a system that has been adapted to land conditions and plant types. meanwhile, 6 people were unwilling to implement an integrated pest control system due to higher costs and fear of a possible crop failure due to the ineffective use of organic pesticides. there is a majority of respondents who are willing to apply the pest control system provide further explanation about the high awareness of farmers in maintaining healthy and safe food quality and more knowledge about the importance of protecting the agricultural land environment so it could sustain in a long period. table 9 total value wtp total value wtp farmers total wtp per harvest time 41,000 74 3,034,000 based on the calculation results, the total value of the wtp from the number of vegetable farmers for the development of the system is idr 3,034,000 for the occasional harvest. in comparison, the total annual wtp value is idr 6,068,000 (obtained from two harvests per syarif & waridin an integrated pest management system development: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 218 year). this value is the economic value of the development of an integrated pest control system that can be done in the tajuk village. stakeholder analysis stakeholder analysis is done with the aim to analyze the level of importance and the influence of each stakeholder in the development of an integrated pest control system. the plan of the system development involves nine incorporated stakeholders. these stakeholders include the department of agriculture and plantation, horticultural food crops research institute (bptph), pest and disease control (php), officers of plant disturbing organism controller (popt), organic plant entrepreneurs, village authorities, sub-district authorities, head of farmers groups and academics. stakeholder mapping matrix the relationship of the influence of stakeholder in the mapping matrix above can be explained through dependence and influence analysis, which is classified as key players are the agriculture and plantation office, horticultural food crops research institute (bptph), pest and disease control (php), officers of plant disturbing organisms controller (popt), and the coordination of each farmer group. while crowd (audience) includes businessman, village authority, and district authority, acts as a context setter in the academic. figure 2 stakeholder mapping matrix syarif & waridin an integrated pest management system development: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 219 the influence between stakeholders and the scale is 0 = low, 1 = less, 2 = enough, 3 = high, 4 = very high. while the interests of each stakeholder based on goals are measured on a scale of +4 or -4 = completely agree, +3 or -3 = strongly agree, +2 or -2 = agree, +1 or -1 = somewhat agree, 0 = neutral. achievement of objectives consisting of (1) improvement of agricultural systems (2) improvement of environmental quality (3) improvement of the quality of agricultural products and (4) improvement of the economy of farmers in tajuk village was done and achieved by each stakeholder. figure 3 achievement of objectives department of agriculture and plantations, horticultural food crops research institute (bptph), pest and disease control (php), officers of plant disturbing organisms controller (popt), organic plant entrepreneurs, village authorities, sub-district authorities, head of farmers groups and academics agree or respond in a positive way concerning the objectives of improving agricultural systems, improving environmental quality, improving the quality of agricultural products and improving the economy of farmers in tajuk village. improvement of agricultural systems improvement of environmental quality improvement of quality of agricultural products improvement of the economy of farmers syarif & waridin an integrated pest management system development: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 220 conclusion the willingness to pay (wtp) average value as an effort to change the agricultural system, especially in vegetable plants, is idr 41,000. the total wtp value towards the integrated pest control system is idr 3,034,000 for each harvest, and the total annual wtp value is idr 6,068,000. of 74 respondents, 5.54% (6 people) were unwilling to pay for the integrated pest control system, and 94.55% (68) respondents were willing to pay for the integrated pest control system in tajuk village, getasan sub-district, semarang regency. actors who played as key players were hcrc, ppooo, pc, department of agriculture and plantation, and farmer groups. actors who played as the crowd 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disetujui: februari 2015 abstract: the research aims to analyze the factors influencing the distribution of banking credit, that include the third-party fund, capital adequacy ratio (car), non performing financing (npf), and the placing fund in the seritifikat bank indonesia syariah (sbis). the data which is used is taken from the financial report of the conventional bank and the shari’a bank period 2010-2014. the technique analysis used the multiple linear regression model, the hypothesis test with the t-test to determine the variable partially, and f-test to determine all variables at once with the significant of 5 persen. the third party fund has positive influence and significant to the distribution of banking credit non performing loan (npl) and return on assets (roa) has negative influence and significant to the distribution of credit banking. the placing fund in sertifikat bank indonesia syariah (sbis) and capital adequacy ratio (car) has negative influence and not significant to the distribution of shari’a banking financing. keywords: financing distribution; third party fund; capital adequacy ratio; return on assets; non performing financing jel classification: g21, g23 abstrak: studi ini bertujuan menganalisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi kebijakan penyaluran kredit perbankan, yang meliputi dana pihak ketiga (dpk), capital adequacy ratio (car), non performing financing (npf), dan penempatan dana di sertifikat bank indonesia syariah (sbis). data yang digunakan diperoleh dari laporan keuangan bank umum dan bank syariah pada tahun 2010-2014. teknik analisis yang digunakan adalah regresi linier berganda, uji hipotesis dengan uji-t untuk menguji variabel secara parsial, dan uji-f untuk menguji variabel secara serempak dengan tingkat signifikansi 5 persen. dpk berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap penyaluran kredit perbankan npl dan roa berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap penyaluran kredit perbankan. penempatan dana di sertifikat bank indonesia syariah (sbis) dan car berpengaruh negatif dan tidak signifikan terhadap jumlah penyaluran pembiayaan perbankan syariah. kata kunci: penyaluran pembiayaan; dana pihak ketiga; capital adequacy ratio; return on assets; non performing financing klasifikasi jel: g21, g23 pendahuluan perekonomian suatu negara dibangun atas dua sektor, yaitu sektor riil dan sektor moneter. sektor rill adalah sektor ekonomi yang ditumpukan pada sektor manufaktur dan jasa. sedangkan sektor moneter ditumpukan pada sektor perbankan (nurbaya, 2013). keterpurukan perbankan pada saat krisis tersebut tidak berimbas pada perbankan syariah karena selama periode krisis tersebut secara jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015: 73-83 74 operasional bank syariah tidak menerapkan sistem bunga tetapi sistem bagi hasil. hal ini dapat dibuktikan dari keberhasilan bank muamalat melewati krisis yang terjadi pada tahun 1998 dengan menunjukkan kinerja yang semakin meningkat dan tidak menerima sepeser pun bantuan dari pemerintah dan pada krisis keuangan tahun 2008, bank muamalat bahkan mampu memperoleh laba rp300 miliar lebih (asih, 2012). perbankan syariah juga mampu bertahan dari terpaan krisis global pada tahun 2008. perbankan syariah tetap stabil dan memberikan keuntungan, kenyamanan serta keamanan bagi para pemegang sahamnya, pemegang surat berharga, peminjam dan para penyimpan dana di bank-bank syariah. menurut uu no 21 tahun 2008 bank syariah adalah bank yang menjalankan kegiatan usahanya berdasarkan prinsip syariah dan menurut jenisnya terdiri dari bank umum syariah dan bank pembiayaan rakyat syariah. sedangkan perbankan syariah adalah segala sesuatu yang menyangkut tentang bank syariah dan unit usaha syariah, mencakup kelembagaan, kegiatan usaha, serta cara dan proses dalam melaksanakan kegiatan usahanya. perkembangan bank syariah dipandang sangat penting untuk (1) memenuhi kebutuhan masyarakat yang menghendaki layanan jasa perbankan yang sesuai dengan prinsip syari’ah; (2) meningkatkan mobilisasi dana masyarakat yang belum terserap sistem perbankan yang ada; (3) meningkatkan ketahanan sistem perbankan nasional; dan (4) menyediakan sarana bagi investor internasional untuk melaksanakan pembiayaan dan transaksi keuangan yang sesuai dengan prinsip syari’ah (setiartiti, 2004). perkembangan bank syariah di indonesia terbilang cukup pesat dan memuaskan baik dari segi aset, jumlah bank dan perluasan jaringan kantornya setiap tahunnya. lahirnya uu no 21 tahun 2008 tentang perbankan syariah mendorong peningkatan jumlah bank syariah (bus) dan unit usaha syariah (uus) (qolby, 2013). jumlah bank syariah masih berjumlah 11 bank, angka tersebut bertahan selama 4 tahun terakhir dari tahun 2010 sampai 2013. peningkatan jumlah bank syariah yang cukup tinggi terjadi pada tahun 2009 ke tahun 2010. pada tahun 2009 jumlah bus masih 6 unit kemudian naik menjadi 11 unit. peningkatan jumlah kantor juga sangat berkembang pesat, setiap tahun terjadi peningkatan sekitar 200 jumlah kantor bus. pada tahun 2013 jumlah kantor dari bank syariah telah mencapai 1.987 unit. perkembangan unit usaha syariah mengalami sedikit gejolak tetapi tidak terlalu signifikan. penurunan hanya terjadi pada tahun 2010 dan 2013. pada tahun 2010 jumlah uus turun dari tahun 2009 sebesar 2 uus disertai dengan menurunnya jumlah kantor uus dari 287 di tahun 2009 menjadi 262 di tahun 2010, sedangkan pada tahun 2013 terjadi penurunan sebesar 1 unit kantor dari tahun 2012 tetapi tidak disertai menurunnya jumlah kantor uus. pada tahun 2013 jumlah kantor uus telah mencapai 567 unit. menurut asih (2012), sebagai lembaga intermediasi, tugas pokok bank syariah adalah menghimpun dana dari masyarakat berupa simpanan atau dana pihak ketiga, kemudian menyalurkan dana tersebut dalam bentuk kredit atau pembiayaan. pembiayaan yang disalurkan kepada masyarakat mempunyai arti penting baik bagi masyarakat maupun bagi bank syariah itu sendiri. masyarakat membutuhkan dana segar, perolehan dana tersebut untuk modal usaha. bagi bank memperoleh pendapatan bagi hasil dan perekonomian secara keseluruhan, akan menggerakkan roda perekonomian. jumlah tabel 1. perkembangan jaringan kantor perbankan syariah jaringan kantor bank syariah indikator 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 bank syariah jumlah bank 6 11 11 11 11 jumlah kantor 711 1215 1390 1734 1987 unit usaha syariah jumlah bank 25 23 24 24 23 jumlah kantor 287 262 312 493 567 sumber: statistik perbankan syariah juni 2014 determinan jumlah pembiayaan... (ayank narita dyatama, imamudin yuliadi) 75 pembiayaan yang diberikan oleh suatu bank dapat menunjukkan kemampuan bank tersebut dalam peranannya sebagai perantara keuangan. perkembangan pembiayaan perbankan syariah di indonesia menunjukkan hal yang positif dari tahun ke tahun. tingginya pertumbuhan penghimpunan dana telah diimbangi dengan pertumbuhan penyaluran dana kepada sektor riil berupa pembiayaan sehingga fungsi intermediasi perbankan dapat relatif terjaga (nasihin, 2013). jumlah pembiayaan yang disalurkan berdasarkan jenisnya terlihat pada tabel 2. pada tabel 2 dijelaskan bahwa perkembangan pembiayaan selama 5 tahun terakhir cukup menggembirakan. pada tahun 2013 total pembiayaan yang disalurkan oleh perbankan syariah mencapai rp184.122 miliar. angka tersebut meningkat sebesar rp36.617 miliar dari total pembiayaan pada tahun 2012 sebesar rp147.505 miliar. peningkatan total pembiayaan yang cukup tinggi terjadi pada tahun 2011 yaitu mencapai rp102.655 miliar dari total pembiayaan tahun 2010 sebesar rp68.181 miliar. pada tahun 2013 pangsa pembiayaan masih didominasi oleh pembiayaan murabahah sebesar 60 persen yaitu sebesar rp110.565 miliar dari total pembiayaan perbankan syariah. kemudian disusul oleh pembiayaan musyarakah 21,65 persen yaitu sebesar rp89.374 miliar dari total pembiayaan perbankan syariah. urutan ketiga diduduki oleh pembiayaan mudharabah 7,39 persen dari total pembiayaan perbankan syariah dan yang terakhir diduduki oleh sebesar lainya yang berupa pembiayaan qardh dan ijarah sebesar 10,57 persen dari total pembiayaan perbankan syariah. pertumbuhan pembiayaan yang baik dapat membantu masyarakat untuk meningkatkan kesejahteraannya. dana yang bersumber dari masyarakat merupakan sumber dana pokok yang dimiliki oleh bank yang biasanya disebut dana pihak ketiga. dana tersebut dapat berasal dari simpanan berupa tabungan, giro dan deposito (sulistya dan wirakusuma, 2013). dpk ini yang selanjutnya digunakan untuk mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi melalui penyaluran pembiayaan. pergerakan dpk menunjukkan pergerakan yang positif dari tahun 2009-2013 seiring dengan meningkatnya jumlah penyaluran pembiayaan. semakin tinggi jumlah dpk, semakin tinggi pula pembiayaan yang disalurkan oleh bank. pada tahun 2013 total dpk yang berhasil dihimpun oleh perbankan syariah mencapai rp153.834 miliar. terkonsentrasinya usaha bank dalam penyaluran pembiayaan tersebut disetabel 2. komposisi pembiayaan menurut jenisnya (miliar) indikator 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 musyarakah 10.412 14.624 18.960 27.667 39.874 mudharabah 6.597 8.631 10.229 12.023 13.625 murabahah 26.321 37.508 56.365 88.004 110.565 salam istishna’ 423 347 326 376 582 lainnya 3.134 7.071 16.776 19.435 19.476 total 46.886 68.181 102.655 147.505 184.122 sumber: statistik perbankan syariah juli 2014 tabel 3. perkembangan indikator perbankan syariah di indonesia indikator 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 dpk (m) 52.271 76.036 115.415 147.512 183.534 fdr (persen) 87,60 91,41 120,65 95,87 npf (persen) 4,01 3,02 2,52 2,26 2,62 car (persen) 10,77 16,76 16,63 14,14 14,42 roa (persen) 1,48 1,59 1,59 1,94 1,58 sbis (m) 3.076 5.408 9.244 4.993 6.699 sumber: statistik perbankan syariah juli 2014 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015: 73-83 76 babkan oleh beberapa alasan. pertama, sifat usaha bank yang berfungsi sebagai lembaga intermediasi antara unit surplus dengan unit defisit. kedua, penyaluran pembiayaan memberikan spread yang pasti sehingga besarnya pendapatan dapat diperkirakan. ketiga, melihat posisinya dalam pelaksanaan kebijaksanaan moneter, perbankan merupakan sektor usaha yang kegiatannya paling dibatasi dan diatur. keempat, sumber utama dana bank berasal dari dana masyarakat dalam bentuk pembiayaan (arisandi, 2009) penyaluran pembiayaan pada perbankan syariah telah menujukkan kualitas yang baik. hal tersebut dapat dilihat dari financing to deposit ratio (fdr) sudah mencapai titik aman yaitu 85 persen 110 persen sesuai dengan harapan bank indonesia. rendahnya angka fdr membuktikan bahwa peran intermediasi perbankan syariah belum optimal, sedangkan tingginya angka fdr dapat menimbulkan resiko likuiditas bagi bank. oleh karena itu bank indonesia membatasi titik rendah dan tinggi rasio fdr. pada tahun 2012, angka fdr telah melewati angka aman yaitu 120,65 persen. padahal pada tahun 2010, 2011, dan 2013 angka fdr telah mencapai titik aman. menurut surat edaran bank indonesia no 6/23/dpnp tanggal 31 mei 2004, rasio fdr dihitung dari pembagian pembiayaan yang diberikan kepada pihak ketiga (tidak termasuk antarbank) dengan dana pihak ketiga (dpk) yang mencakup giro, tabungan, dan deposito (tidak termasuk antar bank). di dalam dunia perbankan syariah, pemberian pembiayaan yang dilakukan oleh bank kepada masyarakat dapat mengandung resiko berupa tidak lancarnya pembayaran yang mampu mempengaruhi kinerja bank yang biasa disebut dengan pembiayaan bermasalah atau non performing financing (npf). besarnya npf sudah ditentukan oleh bank indonesia yaitu sebesar 5 persen. tingginya pembiayaan bermasalah akan menuntut bank untuk menyediakan alokasi dana lain sebagai cadangan menutup kerugian tersebut dan bank akan mengurangi penyaluran pembiayaan berikutnya (suwarsi, 2008). pada bank syariah tingkat npf masih menujukkan batas aman, hanya saja pada tahun 2009 angka npf mencapai angka 4,01 persen. pada tahun selanjutnya tingkat npf hanya berkisar 2 persen saja. fenomena tingginya npl menyebabkan kengganan bank untuk menyalurkan pembiayaan yang disebut credit crunch. bank lebih memiliki untuk menyalurkan dananya ke sertifikat bank indonesia syariah (sbis) karena dianggap lebih aman. menurut peraturan bank indonesia no 10/11/pbi/2008 yang diperbarui dengan pbi no 12/18/pbi/2010 tentang sertifikat bank indonesia syariah, sbis adalah surat berharga berdasarkan prinsip syariah berjangka waktu pendek dalam mata uang rupiah yang diterbitkan oleh bank indonesia. secara umum, penempatan dana pada sbis akan mempengaruhi fungsi intermediasi perbankan. setiap tahunnya terjadi peningkatan jumlah dana yang dialokasikan ke sbis seiring dengan peningkatan dpk. pada tahun 2011 terjadi peningkatan dana yang dialokasikan ke sbis dari tahun 2010, yang awalnya 5.408 miliar menjadi 9.244 miliar. tetapi pada tahun 2012 terjadi penurunan yang tajam dari tahun 2011 yaitu menjadi 4.993 miliar kemudian meningkat lagi pada tahun 2013 menjadi 6.699 miliar. salah satu upaya untuk mengurangi resiko pembiayaan yaitu tingginya npf adalah dengan permodalan yang cukup. rasio permodalan sering disebut capital adequacy ratio (car). rasio ini bertujuan untuk melihat bagaimana permodalan bank dapat mendukung kegiatan bank (penyaluran dana) secara efisien dan melihat kemampuan permodalan bank dalam menanggung kerugian akibat tidak lancarnya penyaluran pembiayaan. oleh karena itu, semakin banyak modal yang dimiliki bank, maka bank akan semakin mampu untuk menambah penyaluran pembiayaannya karena cadangan yang dimiliki ketika bank mengalami kerugian (suwarsi, 2008). menurut peraturan bank indonesia nomor 3/21/pbi/2001 tentang kewajiban penyediaan modal minimum bank bahwa bank wajib menyediakan modal minimum sebesar 8 persen dari aktiva tertimbang menurut resiko yang diproksikan dengan car. perkembangan car menunjukkan gerakan yang fluktuatif setiap tahunnya. pada tahun 2010 dan 2011 car menunjukkan angka 16,76 dan 16,63 kemudian pada tahun 2012 dan 2013 terjadi penurunan menjadi 14,14 dan 14,42. hal tersebut dikarenakan jumlah dpk pada tahun 2012 dan 2013 tidak seimbang dengan penya determinan jumlah pembiayaan... (ayank narita dyatama, imamudin yuliadi) 77 luran pembiayaan sehingga bank menggunakan modalnya untuk menutup pembiayaan. dalam menjalankan kegiatan operasionalnya, bank perlu memperhatikan aspek profitabilitas atau tingkat keuntungan yang dimiliki. profitabilitas adalah kemampuan bank untuk menghasilkan keuntungan dari ebrbagai sumber daya dan dana yang dimilikinya. profitabilitas biasanya menggunakan rasio return on assets (roa). salah satu cara untuk memperoleh keuntungan tersebut melalui pendapatan dari penyaluran pembiayaan. jika pendapatan pembiayaan semakin banyak maka profit bank akan bertambah, dan akan mempengaruhi peningkatan penyaluran pembiayaan berikutnya (suwarsi, 2008). perkembangan roa setiap tahunnya mengalami peningkatan yang berarti bank memperoleh laba seiring dengan meningkatnya penyaluran pembiayaan. pada tahun 2010 dan 2011 roa bank syariah bertahan pada angka 1,59 persen kemudian meningkat pada tahun 2012 dan tahun 2013. angka tersebut belum memenuhi angka minimal yang disyaratkan bank indonesia yaitu sebesar 2 persen. hal tersebut berarti perbankan syariah belum memenuhi bisa menghasilkan laba minimal bagi sebuah perbankan syariah. metode penelitian objek dalam studi ini adalah seluruh bank syariah yang terdaftar di bank indonesia dan otoritas jasa keuangan (ojk) yang terdiri dari bank umum syariah (bus) dan unit usaha syariah (uus). objek tersebut dipilih karena mempunyai data yang cukup lengkap secara berturut-turut dari januari 2010 – juli 2014. jenis data yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah data sekunder perbankan syariah di indonesia yang meliputi dana pihak ketiga (dpk), capital adequacy ratio (car), non performing financing (npf), return on asset (roa) dan penempatan dana di sbis, yang diperoleh dari statistik perbankan syariah indonesia dan statistik ekonomi moneter indonesia periode januari 2010 – juli 2014. studi ini menggunakan metode sensus di mana keseluruhan perbankan syariah yang terdiri dari bank umum syariah dan unit usaha syariah yang terdapat dalam periode studi dijadikan sebagai objek studi. studi ini menggunakan 56 waktu amatan (n = 56) (bulan januari 2010 – juli 2014). metode pengumpulan data yang digunakan adalah metode dokumentasi. metode dokomentasi adalah pengumpulan data dengan cara mengumpulkan, mencatat, dan mengkaji data sekunder berupa yang berupa laporan keuangan tahunan bank. data yang dikumpulkan adalah dana pihka ketiga (dpk), non performing financing (npl), capital adequacy ratio (car), return on assets (roa), penempatan dana sbis dan volume penyaluran pembiayaan. faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi volume penyaluran pembiayaan bank syariah di indonesia digambarkan dalam fungsi berikut: volume pembiayaan = f(dpk, car, roa, sbis, npf) 1) di mana; y adalah volume penyaluran pembiayaan; 0 adalah bilangan konstanta; 1. . 6 adalah koefisien regresi; adalah kesalahan pengguna yang disebabkan faktor lain; dpk adalah dana pihak ketiga; car adalah capital adequacy ratio; roa adalah return on assets; sbis adalah sertifikat bank indonesia syariah, dan npf adalah non performing financing hasil dan pembahasan hasill studi ini menunjukkan bahwa dpk, roa, dan npf masing-masing secara signifikan berpengaruh terhadap penyaluran pembiayaan. sedangkan variabel car dan sbis dalam pengujian tersebut tidak berpengaruh secara signifikan. model regresi dapat digunakan untuk memprediksi variabel dependen penyaluran pembiayaan atau secara bersama-sama variabel independen dpk, car, roa, npf, dan sbis berpengaruh terhadap variabel dependen penyaluran pembiayaan. uji normalitas bertujuan untuk menguji apakah model regresi variabel pengganggu atau residual memiliki distribusi normal. model regresi yang baik adalah memiliki distribusi data normal atau mendekati normal. untuk jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015: 73-83 78 mendeteksi apakah residual berdistribusi normal atau tidak yaitu dengan analisis non – parametrik kolmogorof smirnov (k-s) (ghozali, 2009). gambar 1. grafik distribusi normal berdasarkan tampilan grafik histogram dapat disimpulkan bahwa variabel pengganggu atau residual memiliki distribusi normal. cara mendeteksi data berdistribusi normal arau tidak juga bisa dengan melihat nilai probabilitasnya. jika nilai probabilitas > 5 persen maka data berdistribusi normal, begitu juga apabila nilai probabilitas < 5 persen maka data berdistribusi tidak normal. berdasarkan tabel di atas diketahui bahwa nilai probabilitasnya 0,142021 > 5 persen artinya model regresi tersebut mempunyai distribusi normal. tabel 4. hasil uji liniearitas ramsey reset test f-statistic 16,10794 prob f (1,45) 0,0002 log likelihood ratio 16,21691 prob chi square (1) 0,0001 hasil uji linearitas menjelaskan bahwa nilai prob f stat 0,0002 < 0,05, maka dapat disimpulkan bahwa model tidak linear. berdasarkan uji multikolonieritas bahwa hasil regresi tidak bebas dari multikolonieritas yang dilihat pada gambar dibawah ini. dpk mempunyai korelasi yang cukup tinggi dengan pembiayaan sebesar 0,99 atau 99 persen. data yang tidak mengandung korelasi harus dibawa 80 persen. karena terdapat multikolinieritas maka perlu dilakukan pengobatan. cara pengobatan yang diambil adalah dengan melakukan transformasi akar kuadrat terhadap variabel yang mempunyai korelasi yang cukup tinggi yaitu dana pihak ketiga (dpk). setelah dilakukan transformasi akar kuadrat diperoleh hasil bahwa variabel dpk sudah bebas dari multikolonieritas yaitu ditunjukkan dengan angka -0,151318 atau -15 persen. berdasarkan uji autokorelasi diperoleh hasil bahwa nilai d sebesar 0,524172 sementara berdasarkan tabel durbin-watson diperoleh nilai dl = 1,374 dan nilai du = 1,768. dengan demikian 0<d<dl, sehingga keputusan yang diambil adalah tolak (ada autokorelasi positif). karena terdapat autokorelasi maka perlu dilakukan pengobatan. cara pengobatan yang diambil adalah dengan melakukan metode cochrane-orcutt (c-o). berdasarkan uji autokorelasi setelah ‘pengobatan’ diperoleh hasil bahwa nilai d sebesar 1.521730, sementara berdasarkan tabel durbin-watson diperoleh nilai dl = 1,374 dan nilai du = 1,768. dengan demikian dl<d<4-du, sehingga keputusan yang diambil adalah no decision (tidak ada autokorelasi positif). uji heteroskedastisitas bertujuan untuk menguji apakah dalam model regresi terjadi ketidaksamaan variance dari residual satu pengamatan ke pengamatan yang lain. jika variance dari residual satu pengamatan ke pengamatan yang lain berbeda maka disebut heteroskedastisitas (ghozali, 2009). untuk mendeteksi ada atau tidaknya heteroskedastisitas didalam model regresi antara lain dapat dilakukan dengan uji glejser, yakni meregresikan absolut nilai residual sebagai variabel dependen dengan variabel independen. jika probabilitas signifikansinya di atas tingkat kepercayaan 5 persen maka tidak terdapat heteroskedastisitas (ghozali, 2009). berdasarkan uji heteroskedastisitas diperoleh bahwa data tidak bebas dari heteroskedastisitas yang ditunjukkan dengan tingkat signifikansi < 0,05. nilai obs*r-squared 0,0085 < 0,05, mengindikasikan bahwa data tidak terbebas dari heterokedastisitas. karena terdapat heterokedastisitas maka perlu dilakukan pengobatan. cara pengobatan yang diambil adalah dengan melakukan transformasi akar kuadrat. berdasarkan uji heteroskedastisitas dengan transformasi akar kuadrat diperoleh hasil 0 2 4 6 8 10 -0.01 0.00 0.01 series: residuals sample 2010m02 2014m07 observations 54 mean 2.86e-12 median 0.000270 maximum 0.010937 minimum -0.016943 std. dev. 0.005854 skewness -0.612700 kurtosis 3.483022 jarque-bera 3.903560 probability 0.142021 determinan jumlah pembiayaan... (ayank narita dyatama, imamudin yuliadi) 79 bahwa data sudah terbebas dari heteroskedastisitas ditunjukkan dengan nilai obs*r-squared 0,1441 > 0,05. faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi volume penyaluran pembiayaan bank syariah di indonesia digambarkan dalam persamaan berikut ini: logpembiayaan = -239,4966 + 0,214722 dlogdpk – 0,000882 car – 0,007066 roa – 0,016830 npf – 0,015242 logsbis berdasarkan koefisien regresi dapat disimpulkan bahwa variabel dpk memiliki pengaruh yang paling besar terhadap penyaluran pembiayaan perbankan syariah dengan nilai koefisien beta regresi 0,214722, diikuti dengan variabel sbis sebesar sebesar -0,015242, npf sebesar -0,016830, roa sebesar -0,007066 dan car sebesar -0,000882, hasil regresi menunjukkan bahwa variabel dpk berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap penyaluran pembiayaan. artinya bahwa peningkatan atau penurunan dpk pada periode studi mempengaruhi penyaluran pembiayaan secara signifikan. semakin tinggi dpk yang berhasil dihimpun oleh perbankan syariah, akan mendorong peningkatan jumlah pembiayaan yang disalurkan, demikian pula sebaliknya. penyaluran pembiayaan menjadi prioritas utama bank dalam pengalokasian dananya. hal ini dikarenakan sumber dana bank berasal dari masyarakat sehingga bank harus menyalurkan kembali dpk yang berhasil dihimpun kepada masyarakat dalam bentuk kredit. hal ini sejalan dengan fungsi bank sebagai perantara keuangan (financial intermediary). di samping itu pemberian kredit merupakan aktivitas yang paling utama bagi bank umum selaku business entity untuk menghasilkan keuntungan. pengalaman dan kemampuan perkreditan yang dimiliki juga turut mendukung keberanian bank umum dalam menyalurkan kredit. dpk merupakan variabel yang memiliki pengaruh paling besar terhadap penyaluran kredit perbankan. hal ini dikarenakan dalam menjalankan fungsi perantara keuangan (financial intermediary), dpk merupakan sumber pendanaan yang utama. dana-dana yang dihimpun dari masyarakat dapat mencapai 80 persen 90 persen dari seluruh dana yang dikelola oleh bank (dendawijaya, 2005). dana pihak ketiga (dpk) merupakan sumber dana terbesar yang diandalkan perbankan dan dibutuhkan suatu bank dalam menjalankan operasinya. bank dapat memanfaatkan dana dari pihak ketiga ini untuk ditempatkan pada pos-pos yang menghasilkan pendapatan bagi bank, salah satunya yaitu dalam bentuk pembiayaan. hampir semua bank mengandalkan penghasilan utamanya dari jumlah penyaluran pembiayaan oleh karena itu pemberian pembiayaan merupakan aktivitas bank yang paling utama dalam menghasilkan keuntungan (dendawijaya, 2005). hasil studi ini memperkuat hasil studi sebelumnya yang dilakukan oleh siswati (2013), nasihin (2013), tabel 5. hasil analisis regresi liniear berganda variable coefficient std error t-statistic prob c -239,4966 31600,06 -0,007579 0,9940 dlogdpk 0,214722 0,082632 2,598516 0,0125 car -0,000882 0,000710 -1,241818 0,2206 roa -0,007066 0,003131 -2,256972 0,0288 npf -0,016830 0,004512 -3,730469 0,0005 logsbis -0,015242 0,010915 -1,396446 0,1693 ar(1) 1,000044 0,005670 176,3656 0,0000 r-squared 0,998642 adj r-squared 0,998465 f-statiistic 5636,659 prob (f-statistic) 0,000000 d-w stat 1,521730 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015: 73-83 80 dan iqbal (2013) yang menyatakan bahwa dpk berpengaruh positif dan signi-fikan. car berpengaruh negatif dan tidak signifikan yang artinya hasil dari studi telah menolak hipotesis yang diajukan di mana car berpengaruh positif dan signifikan. hal itu berarti bahwa peningkatan atau penurunan car selama periode studi tidak mempengaruhi penyaluran pembiayaan. semakin tinggi atau turunnya car tidak berimbas terhadap naik turunnya penyaluran pembiayaan perbankan syariah. hasil studi ini berbeda dari hipotesis yang diajukan karena rata-rata car bank umum pada periode 2009-2014 berada pada kisaran yang cukup tinggi yakni 11,07 persen 20,23 persen, jauh di atas ketentuan minimal yang disyaratkan oleh bank indonesia sebesar 8 persen. tingginya car mengindikasikan adanya sumber daya finansial (modal) yang idle ataupun disalurkan ke sektor lain ataupun investasi lain selain pembiayaan, karena seperti diketahui bahwa pembiayaan merupakan investasi yang resikonya paling tinggi. bank sebagai lembaga komersial jelas tidak mau mengambil resiko terlalu tinggi dalam melakukan aktivitasnya sehingga modal yang tersedia diinvestasikan ke sektor lain ataupun surat berharga. pulihnya perekonomian dan perbankan secara berangsur-angsur telah mendorong optimalisasi kegunaan sumber daya finansial (modal) melalui penyaluran pembiayaan. penyaluran pembiayaan bank syariah mengalami peningkatan setiap tahunnya tetapi tidak diikuti dengan perubahan nilai car. semakin tinggi nilai car maka semakin tinggi pula pembiayaan yang disalurkan karena bank mempunyai modal yang lebih untuk menyalurkan uangnya ke pembiayaan. tetapi kenyataannya car tidak mempunyai pengaruh yang signifikan dibuktikan dengan pada tahun 2010 sendiri terjadi penurunan nilai car dari bulan februari ke maret di mana angka car pada bulan februari 11,43 persen dan jumlah pembiayaan yang disalurkan sebesar rp48.479 miliar, sedangkan pada bulan maret angka car turun menjadi 11,07 persen dan jumlah pembiayaan yang disalurkan rp50.206 miliar. hal tersebut membuktikan bahwa naik turunnya car belum tentu mempengaruhi jumlah pembiayaan yang disalurkan. di tahuntahun berikutnya pun terjadi hal yang serupa. npf mempunyai pengaruh negatif dan signifikan yang artinya bahwa peningkatan atau penurunan npf selama periode studi mempengaruhi penyaluran pembiayaan bank syariah secara signifikan. semakin tinggi npf akan mendorong penurunan jumlah kredit yang disalurkan, demikian pula sebaliknya (h3: npf berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap pembiayaan perbankan syariah, hipotesis diterima). npf mencerminkan risiko kredit. semakin tinggi tingkat npf maka semakin besar pula risiko kredit yang ditanggung oleh pihak bank. akibat tingginya npl perbankan akan lebih berhati-hati (selektif) dalam menyalurkan kredit. hal ini dikarenakan adanya potensi kredit yang tidak tertagih. tingginya npf juga mengakibatkan munculnya pencadangan yang lebih besar, sehingga pada akhirnya modal bank ikut terkikis. padahal besaran modal sangat mempengaruhi besarnya ekspansi kredit. dengan demikian besarnya npf menjadi salah satu penghambat tersalurnya pembiayaan perbankan. kualitas pembiayaan yang semakin menurun (peningkatan pembiayaan bermasalah) membawa pengaruh negatif terhadap bank selaku pembiayaan. peningkatan pembiayaan bermasalah ini menimbulkan pembentukan cadangan pembiayaan bermasalah ini menimbulkan pembentukan cadangan pembiayaan bermasalah semakin besar. cadangan penyisihan pembiayaan ini lawan rekening kerugian pembiayaan. kerugian pembiayaan merupakan biaya yang berarti menurunkan laba. penurunan laba bahkan kerugian bank akan berakibat menurunkan modal bank. penurunan laba bahkan kerugian bank akan berakibat menurunkan modal bank. dampak yang lebih luas adalah ketika pembiayaan bermasalah tak dapat ditagih lagi berarti terjadi penghentian dana bergulir. penghentian ini jelas mengganggu pengembangan usaha, menghambat pertumbuhan ekonomi, meningkatkan pengangguran dan menurunkan pendapatan masyarakat (taswan, 2010). dalam kenyataannya perbankan syariah mampu menjaga npf nya selama lima tahun terakhir. ketentuan bank indoneisa adalah bahwa bank harus menjaga npl di bawah 5 determinan jumlah pembiayaan... (ayank narita dyatama, imamudin yuliadi) 81 persen. pada tahun 2009 npf perbankan syariah sebesar 4,01 persen meskipun cukup tinggi tetapi masih di bawah 5 persen, kemudian disusul tahun 2010 sebesar 3,02 persen, tahun 2011 sebesar 2,52 persen, tahun 2012 sebesar 2,26, tahun 2013 sebesar 2,62 persen. angka tersebut membuktikan bahwa perbankan syariah menunjukkan kesuksesannya dengan semakin rendahnya angka npf setiap tahunnya. roa berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan yang artinya studi ini menolak hipotesis yang diajukan yaitu bahwa roa berpengaruh positif dan signifikan. artinya roa mengindikasikan bahwa peningkatan atau penurunan roa selama periode studi mempengaruhi pembiayaan secara signifikan. semakin tinggi roa maka semakin turun pembiayaan yang disalurkan. hasil studi ini berbeda dengan hipotesis yang diajukan karena rata-rata nilai roa pada periode studi 2009-2014 berada pada kisaran yang cukup rendah yakni 0,08 persen-2,52 persen jauh di bawah ketentuan minimal yang disyaratkan oleh bank indonesia sebesar 2 persen. tingginya roa menyebabkan penurunan terhadap jumlah pembiayaan yang disalurkan. seperti yang diketahui bahwa semakin tinggi nilai roa maka semakin rendah pembiayaan yang disalurkan. hal ini bisa dimungkinkan pendapatan yang dihasilkan oleh bank syariah bukan hanya dari pembiayaan yang disalurkan kepada masyarakat. pendapatan yang diperoleh disalurkan kepada aset lainnya seperti surat berharga. menurut dendawijaya (2005), alasan penggunaan roa ini bank indonesia sebagai pembina dan pengawas perbankan lebih mengutamakan nilai profitabilitas suatu bank yang diukur dengan menggunakan aset di mana sebagian besar dananya berasal dari masyarakat dan nantinya, oleh bank juga harus disalurkan kembali kepada masyarakat. tetapi dalam kenyataannya pada tahun 2009 sendiri angka roa masih di bawah 2 persen sedangkan pembiayaan yang disalurkan sebesar rp46.886 miliar, pada tahun 2010 yaitu sebesar 1,67 persen sedangkan pembiayaan yang disalurkan sebesar rp68.181 miliar, pada tahun 2011 angka roa sebesar 1,79 persen dan pembiayaan yang disalurkan rp102.655 miliar, dan pada tahun 2012 angka roa mencapai 2,14 persen di atas rata-rata ketentuan bank indonesia dan pembiayaan yang disalurkan sebesar rp147.505. meskipun setiap tahun angka roa meningkat tetapi di setiap bulannya terdapat fluktuasi yang cukup tinggi di mana ketika jumlah pembiayaan meningkat tidak diiikuti dengan naiknya angka roa malahan terkadang angka roa semakin turun. hasil studi ini memperkuat studi sebelumnya yang dilakukan oleh nasihin (2013) yang menyatakan bahwa roa berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap penyaluran pembiayaan perbankan syariah. penempatan dana di sbis negatif dan tidak signifikan yyang berarti hasil ini telah menolak hipotesis yang diajukan yaitu penempatan dana di sbis negatif dan signifikan. artinya penempatan dana di sbis mengindikasikan bahwa peningkatan atau penurunan penempatan dana di sbis selama periode studi tidak mempengaruhi penyaluran pembiayaan secara signifikan. semakin tinggi penempatan jumlah dana di sbis akan mendorong jumlah pembiayaan yang disalurkan dalam tingkat yang tidak signifikan. keuntungan yang diperoleh dari penempatan dana di sbis menyebabkan tingginya dana yang disalurkan, hal itu menyebabkan turunnya nilai pembiayaan yang disalurkan, tetapi penurunan pembiayaan berada pada tingkat yang signifikan. artinya, meskipun penempatan dana menyebabkan penurunan pembiayaan tetapi tidak menjadi masalah terhadap penyalurannya. karakteristik sbis adalah, pertama, sbis diterbitkan dan ditatausahakan tanpa warkat dan kedua, sbis tidak dapat diperjualbelikan. benefit yang diberikan dari sbis bukan bunga didasarkan atas sistem diskonto, akan tetapi apa yang dinamakan dengan imbalan (khatimah, 2009). bank indonesia menerbitkan sbis melalui mekanisme lelang. dalam melakukan pembelian sbis, bus dan uus wajib memenuhi persyaratan fdr yang ditetapkan oleh bank indonesia. jadi meskipun penyaluran dana ke sbis mengurangi jumlah pembiayaan yang disalurkan tetapi selama kondisi fdr masih aman dianggap tidak masalah. hasil studi ini memperkuat hasil studi sebelumnya yang dilakukan oleh siswati (2013) jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015: 73-83 82 yang menyatakan bahwa penempatan dana di sbis negatif dan tidak signifikan terhadap penyaluran pembiayaan perbankan syariah. simpulan variabel dpk berhubungan positif dan signifikan terhadap jumlah pembiayaan dibuktikan dengan nilai koefisien regresi 0,214 dengan nilai signifikansi 0,012 lebih kecil dari 5 persen (0,012 < 0,05) sesuai dengan hipotesis yang diajukan hal ini mengindikasi bahwa semakin besar dpk maka semakin besar volume pembiayaan yang dapat disalurkan. variabel car tidak berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap jumlah pembiayaan dibuktikan dengan nilai koefisien regresi -0,0008 dengan nilai signifikansi 0,226 lebih besar dari 5 persen (0,226 < 0,05) tidak sesuai dengan hipotesis yang diajukan bahwa car berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap jumlah pembiayaan bank syariah. hal ini disebabkan adanya bank syariah yang belum mampu memaksimalkan dana yang diserap dan banyak aset yang idle ataupun disalurkan ke sektor lain ataupun investasi lain selain pembiayaan, karena seperti diketahui bahwa pembiayaan merupakan investasi yang resikonya paling tinggi. selain naiknya dpk seiring dengan pembiayaan yang menyebabkan bahwa dpk telah mendominasi modal yang digunakan dalam pembiayaan sehingga penggunaan dan car bisa disalurkan ke sektor lain selain pembiayaan dan juga biasanya penggunaan car dalam hal pembiayaan hanya untuk menutupi npf yang terjadi. jadi car yang tinggi tidak berpengaruh terhadap jumlah pembiayaan jika bank syariah tidak mampu memnfaatkan dana yang ada. pada studi ini variabel roa mempunyai hubungan yang negatif dan signifikan terhadap jumlah pembiayaan dibuktikan dengan nilai koefisien sebesar -0,0007 dengan signifikansi = 0,288 lebih kecil dari 0,05 (0,0288 < 0,05) tidak sesuai dengan hipotesis yang diajukan bahwa roa mempunyai hubungan yang positif dan signifikan. hal ini disebabkan rendahnya tingkat roa (di bawah ketentuan bank indonesia) sehingga tidak ada pengalokasian dana pembiayaan dari roa sehingga dana yang digunakan untuk melakukan pembiayaan adalah dpk yang mana dpk merupakan 80 persen 90 persen sumber dana untuk pembiyaan sehingga wajar jika naiknya pembiyaan tidak disertai dengan roa. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa semakin tinggi jumlah pembiayaan semakin rendah tingkat roa karena dana yang dihasilkan dari roa tidak sepenuhnya disalurkan ke pembiayaan. variabel npf mempunyai hubungan yang negatif dan signifikan terhadap jumlah pembiayaan dibuktikan dengan nilai koefisien sebear 0,016 dengan signifikansi = 0,0005 lebih kecil dari 0,05 (0,0005 < 0,05) sesuai dengan hipotesis yang diajukan. hal ini mengindikasikan bahwa semakin tinggi npf maka semakin rendah jumlah pembiayaan yang disalurkan. variabel penempatan dana di sbis mempunyai hubungan yang negatif dan tidak signifikan yang artinya variabel penempatan dana di sbis tidak mempunyai pengaruh terhadap jumlah pembiayaaan dibuktikan dengan nilai koefisien -0,015 dengan signifikansi = 0,1693 lebih besar dari 0,05 (0,1693 > 0,05) tidak sesuai dengan hipotesis yang diajukan bahwa penempatan dana di sbis berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan. hal ini mengindikasikan bahwa penempatan dana di sbis tidak mempengaruhi jumlah pembiayaan yang disalurkan, karena dalam peraturan bank indonesia, bank syariah harus memenuhi tingkat fdr yang ditetapkan sebelum menempatkan dananya di sbis yaitu nilai fdr berkisar 90 persen -110 persen sehingga tidak mungkin bahwa penempatan dana disbis telah menyebabkan pengurangan dana di pembiayaan. daftar pustaka arisandi, desi. (2009). analisis faktor penawaran kredit pada bank umum di indonesia. jurnal universitas gunadarma. asih, norma budi. (2012). analisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi financing to deposit ratio pada bank umum syariah di indonesia periode 2007-2010. disertasi. uin sunan kalijaga. dendawijaya, lukman. (2005). manajemen perbankan. edisi 2. bogor: ghalia indonesia. determinan jumlah pembiayaan... (ayank narita dyatama, imamudin yuliadi) 83 ghozali, imam. (2009). aplikasi analisis multivariate dengan program spss. semarang: badan penerbit undip. iqbal, mohammad. (2013). pengaruh dana pihak ketiga, rasio keuangan, jaringan, inflasi dan bi rate terhadap volume pembiayaan bank umum syariah. skripsi. uin sunan kalijaga yogyakarta. dipublikasikan. khatimah, husnul. (2009). analisis faktorfaktor yang mempengaruhi penyaluran dana perbankan syariah di indonesia sebelum dan sesudah kebijakan akselerasi perbankan syariah tahun 2007/2008. jurnal optimal, vol. 3 no. 1 maret 2009. nasihin. (2013). pengaruh faktor internal bank terhadap volume pembiayaan pada bank syariah di indonesia. skripsi. dipublikasikan. yogyakarta: uin sunan kalijaga. nurbaya, ferial. (2013). analisis pengaruh car, roa, fdr, dan dana pihak ketiga (dpk) terhadap pembiayaan murabahah periode maret 2001–desember 2009 (studi kasus pada pt bank muamalat indonesia tbk). skripsi. dipublikasikan semarang: universitas diponegoro. pratami, w.a novi. (2011). analisis pengaruh dana pihak ketiga (dpk), capital adequacy ratio (car), non performing financing (npf) dan return on asset (roa) terhadap pembiayaan pada perbankan syariah (studi kasus pada bank muamalat indonesia periode 2001-2011). skripsi. dipublikasikan. semarang: universitas diponegoro. setiartiti, lilies. (2004). membangun citra perbankan syari’ah sebuah alternatif strategi bagi pengembangan perbankan syari’ah di indonesia. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan vol. 5 no. 1, april 2004; hlm 45-54. yogyakarta: universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta. siswati. (2013). analisis penyaluran dana bank syariah. jurnal dinamika manajemen vol 4 no 1. suharyadi dan purwantoro s.k. (2004). statistika untuk ekonomi dan keuangan modern jilid 2. jakarta: salemba empat sulistya, kadek ari dan made gede wirakusuma. (2013). pengaruh dana pihak ketiga, capital adequacy ratio, dan suku bunga sbi terhadap penyaluran kredit bank bumn di indonesia periode 20062010. jurnal akuntansi, vol 2. no 2. bali: universitas udayana. suwarsi. (2008). pengaruh loan to asset ratio, rate of return on loan ratio, capital adequacy ratio, dan non performing financing terhadap penyaluran pembiayaan. jurnal universitas muhammadiyah malang. qolby, m. luthfi. (2013). faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi pembiayaan pada perbankan syariah di indonesia periode tahun 2007-2013. economics development analysis journal, vol. 4, no. 2. taswan. (2010). manajemen perbankan konsep, teori dan aplikasi. edisi ii. yogyakarta: upp stim ykpn winarno, wing wahyu. (2011). analisis ekonometrika dan statistika dengan eviews. edisi 3. yogyakarta: upp stim ykpn. microsoft word 07-yustisia catur jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 2, oktober 2014, hlm. 161-170   analisis empiris environmental kuznets curve (ekc) terkait orientasi energi dea yustisia1, catur sugiyanto2 1 center for public mental health universitas gadjah mada jl. humaniora no. 1 bulaksumur 55281 yogyakarta, indonesia. phone +62 274 550435 2 fakultas ekonomika dan bisnis universitas gajah mada jalan sosio humaniora nomor 1 bulaksumur yogyakarta 55281, indonesia, phone: +62-274-548510, e-mail korespondensi: deayustisia@gmail.com naskah diterima: april 2014; disetujui: agustus 2014 abstract: the aim of this study is to investigate the existence of environmental kuznets curve (ekc) for panel data of three classifications of countries according to development level and energy orientation, such as consumption of energy, export of energy, import of energy, and share of renewable energy consumption over the period 1991-2010. we use the panel data method to estimate the model for three classifications of countries and do some treatment tests for the data. in general, we find support for the ekc only for middle development countries and for its rejection in other cases and there are different types of energy sources which are significantly affected emission per capita in every country classification. we also found that renewable energy has an important role for sustainable development and we may conclude that investment and joint agreement in clean energy can be significant factors to actualize sustainable development. keywords: environmental kuznets curve (ekc); pollution; energy; panel data; development jel classification: q32, q43, q56, o13 abstrak: tujuan dari studi ini adalah untuk menginvestigasi eksistensi kurva lingkungan kuznets (ekc) pada data panel dari tiga klasifikasi negara menurut tingkat pembangunan ekonomi dan orientasi energi, seperti halnya konsumsi energi, ekspor energi, impor energi, dan penggunaan energi alternatif pada periode 1991-2010. kami menggunakan metode data panel untuk mengestimasi model pada tiga klasifikasi negara dan melakukan tes beberapa metode ekonometrika dan statistika untuk data. secara umum, ditemukan bahwa pembuktian untuk teori ekc hanya pada negara dengan tingkat pembangunan menengah dan terdapat penolakan dalam kasus kategori negara lainnya, serta adanya perbedaan jenis sumber energi yang signifikan mempengaruhi emisi per kapita di setiap klasifikasi negara. kami juga menemukan bahwa energi alternatif memiliki peran penting bagi pembangunan berkelanjutan dan kami dapat menyimpulkan bahwa investasi dan kesepakatan bersama dalam energi ramah lingkungan dapat menjadi faktor yang signifikan untuk mewujudkan pembangunan berkelanjutan. kata kunci: kurva environmental kuznets (ekc); polusi; energi; data panel; pembangunan klasifikasi jel: q32, q43, q56, o13 pendahuluan pembangunan berkelanjutan menjadi salah satu isu yang kerap diangkat seiring dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang cukup pesat pada beberapa dekade terakhir. konsep pembangunan berkesinambungan memperhatikan tiga aspek utama, yaitu masyarakat (society), lingkungan (environment), dan perekonomian (economy). seiring bertambahnya degradasi lingkungan, pertanyaan umum pun muncul dalam kajian bidang ekonomi: apakah tingkah pertumbuhan jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 2, oktober 2014: 161-170 162 ekonomi berkesinambungan bisa dicapai, baik dalam skala negara, wilayah maupun dunia secara keseluruhan. lean dan shahbaz (2011) menyebutkan bahwa pembangunan ekonomi yang berkelanjutan akan tercapai beriringan dengan pelestarian lingkungan yang berkelanjutan. para peneliti dalam bidang ekonomi telah mengkaji hubungan antara tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi dengan indikator lingkungan dengan menggunakan environmental kuznets curve (ekc). teori ini menyebutkan bahwa tingkat kerusakan lingkungan akan meningkat seiring dengan pembangunan ekonomi dan pada titik tertentu (turning point) dalam pencapaian pertumbuhan ekonomi, maka tingkat kerusakan lingkungan akan menurun seiring dengan meningkat yang ditandai dengan kurva huruf u-terbalik (u inverted curve). adapun vollebergh, dkk (2008) mengestimasi ekc pada dua jenis polutan, yaitu co2 dan so2 pada negara-negara oecd dalam kurun waktu 1960-2000. studi ini membuktikan bahwa kurva ekc jelas terbentuk dalam kasus polutan so2, namun tidak demikian pada kurva ekc co2. studi ekc juga memasukkan variabel eksogen lain dalam estimasinya selain tingkat pendapatan maupun pertumbuhan ekonomi, seperti halnya energi dan perdagangan. sementara studi yang dilakukan suri dan chapman (1998) menunjukkan bahwa baik negara maju maupun negara berkembang yang sedang melalui tahapan industrialisasi akan meningkatkan kebutuhan terhadap energi yang cukup tinggi pada awalnya untuk mengekspor. beberapa studi terkait dengan pengujian hipotesis ekc dilakukan dalam kategori negara dengan tingkat pertumbuhan sosial ekonomi yang beragam. hipotesis ekc yang dikaji secara berfokus pada di negara maju, seperti halnya amerika serikat (aldy, 2004), kanada (he dan richard, 2009) dan menemukan pembuktian hipotesis ekc pada beberapa kawasan serta pentingnya pengembangan energi alternatif (iwata, dkk., 2009). literatur lainnya menganalisis ekc menggunakan data silang antar negara (sen dan melenberg, 2011), fujii dan shunsuke (2011), serta beberapa studi ekc di negara berkembang (timakova, 2009), saboori, dkk. (2012), waluyo dan terawaki (2012). beberapa hasil empiris terkait dengan ekc telah dilaporkan berdasarkan metode dan sampel yang beragam dengan hasil pembuktian hipotesis dan kesimpulan yang beragam. fujii dan shunsuke (2011) melakukan pengujian hipotesis ekc pada 23 negara oecd yang tergolong negara maju menggunakan tingkat emisi karbondioksida per sektor. pembuktian hipotesis ekc terlihat pada industri makanan, tekstil, kayu, kimia, kertas, besi, mesin, peralatan transportasi, serta industri konstruksi. akan tetapi, hipotesis ekc tidak terbukti pada industri pertambangan dan industri logam non-besi yang merupakan industri yang membutuhkan energi yang banyak dalam proses produksinya sehingga menunjukkan fungsi monotonik dan bukan fungsi kuadratik sebagaimana hipotesis ekc. selama ini studi terkait ekc dan energi hanya menggunakan pendekatan konsumsi energi sebagai variabel independen dalam beberapa studi (suri dan chapman, 1998) dan richmond dan kauffman (2003), menemukan bahwa hanya negara maju telah berhasil mengendalikan tingkat konsumsi energi dan mencapai titik balik dalam ekc. hanya sedikit literatur yang mengkaji bagaimana faktor produksi dan konsumsi berpengaruh di dalam emisi karbondioksida, salah satunya adalah aldy (2004) yang menggunakan pendekatan emisi karbondioksida dalam proses produksi dan konsumsi di tingkat negara bagian amerika serikat. studi tersebut menemukan bahwa emisi karbondioksida dari konsumsi energi pada negara bagian dengan pendapatan lebih tinggi akan lebih signifikan berpengaruh dibandingkan emisi karbondioksida dari proses produksi energi. studi yang dilakukan oleh yolanda dan rodriguez (2012) yang meneliti 15 negara oecd periode 1980-2004 menolak hipotesis ekc, harga minyak signifikan dalam semua spesifikasi model bertanda negatif, harga gas dan batu bara tidak signifikan (efek substitusi dengan harga minyak), produksi energi terbarukan signifikan terhadap emisi bertanda negatif. sementara studi yang dilakukan oleh waluyo dan terawaki (2012) periode 1962-2007 dengan metode model runtun waktu ardl. adapun variabel yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah deforestrasi, gdp, penduduk daerah rural, pertumbuhan penduduk, indeks pertaenvironmental kuznets curve (dea yustisia, catur sugiyanto) 163 nian, luas lahan pertanian, produksi kayu, ekspor produk hutan di indonesia. hasil studi ini menunjukkan hubungan inverted-u pada jangka panjang, yang menunjukkan pola ekc di mana apabila tingkat deforestrasi meningkat pada tahapan awal pertumbuhan ekonomi, maka pada ambang batas tingkat deforestrasi akan menurun dengan kalkulasi titik balik pendapatan per kapita us$ 990,4. ada empat tujuan dari dilakukannya studi ini yaitu; 1) untuk menguji teori environmental kuznets curve (ekc) pada kelompok negara dengan tingkat pembangunan tinggi, sedang, dan rendah; 2) untuk menganalisis orientasi konsumsi energi yang berpengaruh terhadap emisi karbondioksida per kapita pada kelompok negara dengan tingkat pembangunan tinggi, sedang, dan rendah; 3) untuk menganalisis dan pengaruh perilaku ekspor impor energi pada kelompok negara dengan tingkat pembangunan tinggi, sedang, dan rendah; 4) untuk menganalisis pengaruh energi alternatif terhadap emisi pada kelompok negara dengan tingkat pembangunan tinggi, sedang, dan rendah. metode penelitian jenis dan sumber data data yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah data panel yang merupakan kombinasi dari data time series dan cross-section. dalam data panel, sekelompok unit cross section (individu, rumah tangga, negara) diambil datanya dalam sebuah kurun waktu. jadi data panel adalah data dari beberapa unit cross section yang diambil dalam kurun waktu tertentu. data panel memiliki kelebihan dibandingkan dengan time series dan cross section: 1) data panel dapat digunakan untuk mengatasi heterogeneitas dalam unit mikro. dalam data time series maupun cross-section terdapat beberapa variabel penjelas yang tidak terukur (unmeasured explanatory variable). mengabaikan variabel ini dapat menyebabkan bias dalam estimasi. data panel dapat digunakan untuk mengatasi permasalahan ini; 2) data panel meningkatkan variabilitas dengan mengkombinasikan variasi dalam unit mikro dengan variasi time series yang dapat mengatasi permasalahan multikolinearitas. dengan data yang lebih informatif maka diharapkan estimasi yang lebih efisien dapat dicapai; 3) data panel dapat digunakan untuk meneliti permasalahan yang tidak dapat dilakukan oleh data time series maupun cross-section. untuk memutuskan model manakah yang paling tepat dari ketiga model yang akan digunakan dalam mengestimasikan data panel, perhatikan skema pada gambar 1. gambar 1. alur pengujian data panel ketiga pengujian di atas yaitu chow test, hausman test, dan lm test digunakan untuk memutuskan model yang paling tepat dari ketiga model tersebut. studi ini mengembangkan model ekc yang menjelaskan hubungan antara emisi co2 dengan pendapatan per kapita dengan variabel-variabel penjelas lain terkait dengan orientasi energi sebagaimana disederhanakan pada model berikut: ln(e/p)it = αi + β1 ln(gdp/p)t + β2(ln(gdp/p)) 2 it + ln(coal)it + ln(oil)it + ln(export_ener)it + ln(renew_ener)it + it 1) hasil dan pembahasan studi ini menguji mengenai pengaruh emisi karbondioksida dan pertumbuhan ekonomi serta melakukan pembuktian dari environmental kuznets curve pada 17 negara yang dibagi tiga kelompok negara serta menguji pengaruh variabel yang berpengaruh terkait dengan orientasi energi, yaitu: konsumsi energi (batu bara, minyak bumi, dan gas alam), ekspor energi, impor energi, dan pengembangan jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 2, oktober 2014: 161-170 164 energi alternatif selama kurun waktu 20 tahun (19912010). dalam studi ini telah dilakukan uji statistik pada variabel dependen dan independen. selain uji statistik dilakukan juga uji f, uji hausman, uji asumsi klasik dan uji stasioner dan kointegrasi pada data panel. uji f digunakan untuk membandingkan apakah parameter antara satu grup/model berbeda dengan parameter grup/model lainnya. dalam hal ini, uji f membandingkan parameter yang diperoleh pada model pls dengan model fe. hipotesis nol pada uji ini adalah parameter pada kedua model sama atau stabil. nilai f statistik menunjukkan nilai probabilitas yang signifikan kurang dari 0,05 dari nilai kritisnya. bukti ini menolak hipotesis nol tentang stabilitas parameter sehingga model fe lebih tepat untuk digunakan dalam mengestimasi persamaan pada ketiga kelompok negara. uji hausman mengikuti distribusi statistik x2 dengan derajat kebebasan k yang merupakan jumlah variabel independen. jika nilai x2 statistik lebih besar dari nilai kritisnya, maka hipotesis nol tidak diterima sehingga kesimpulannya adalah lebih tepat menggunakan fixed effect (greene, 2000). hasil pengujian pada tiga klasifikasi negara mendapatkan nilai chisquare masing-masing sebesar 116,33 (hdc); 7.752,17 (mdc), dan 55,76 (ldc) yang lebih besar dari nilai kritisnya pada α = 5% dengan d.f(8) sebesar 21,955. nilai tersebut menolak hipotesis nol dan mengarahkan pada penggunaan model fe karena lebih konsisten dalam mengestimasi model pada tiga kelompok negara. uji hausman tersebut semakin menegaskan pengujian sebelumnya bahwa model fe adalah yang paling tepat digunakan. ada beberapa uji asumsi klasik pengujian pemilihan model, disimpulkan bahwa model fe adalah yang paling tepat digunakan sebagai model estimasi. akan tetapi, hasil estimasi model fe belum dapat sepenuhnya dipercaya terlepas dari permasalahan asumsi klasik seperti heteroskedastisitas, autokorelasi, dan multikolinearitas. pengujian pertama untuk model fe adalah uji heteroskedastisitas. h asil pengujian memberikan nilai chi-square masing-masing adalah 71,15 (hdc); 65,59 (mdc); dan 370,18 (ldc) lebih besar dari nilai kritisnya pada d.f (7) α = 5% sebesar 14,07. nilai tersebut menolak hipotesis nol tentang homoskedastisitas, sehingga terdapat permasalahan heteroskedastisitas model fe. kedua, melakukan uji autokorelasi dengan menggunakan wooldridge test for autocorrelation in panel data menggunakan stata 12 untuk mengetahui apakah terdapat korelasi satu observasi dengan observasi lain yang berlainan waktu dan didapatkan nilai f statistik sebesar masing-masing 1,137 (hdc); 5,106 (mdc); dan 11,486 (ldc) dengan nilai kritisnya pada d.f (1,6) α = 5% sebesar 5,99 pada hdc dan d.f(1,4) α = 5% sebesar 7,71 pada mdc dan ldc. hasil ini menunjukkan bahwa hdc dan mdc tidak menolak hipotesis nol tentang tidak adanya autokorelasi pada orde pertama, namun ldc menolak hipotesis nol sehingga diambil kesimpulan bahwa tidak terdapat permasalahan autokorelasi serial pada model fe pada hdc dan mdc pada α = 5% dan terdapat permasalahan autokorelasi serial pada ldc. pengujian terakhir uji multikolinearitas adalah mendeteksi hubungan antarvariabelvariabel yang digunakan dalam model menggunakan matriks korelasi. korelasi yang cukup tinggi hanya terlihat pada konsumsi minyak bumikonsumsi gas alam dan impor energirenewable energy pada hdc, serta emisigdp dan impor-ekspor energi pada ldc yang korelasinya mencapai di atas 80%. hasil estimasi tersebut memperlihatkan tidak terdapat perfect collinearity, sehingga hasil estimasi tidak bias dan blue (best linear unbiased estimators) (gujarati 2003). selain uji statistik dan uji asumsi klasik, dalam studi ini juga melakukan uji stasioneritas dan kointegrasi. tabel 1 membandingkan hasil uji unit root antara variabel pada level dan pada derajat satu. semua variabel pada level memiliki akar unit atau tidak stasion er pada level, kecuali impor energi pada ldc, sedangkan seluruh variabel yang didiferensiasi stasioner pada tingkat yang sama, yakni pada derajat satu. hasil ini memenuhi syarat untuk melakukan uji kointegrasi untuk mengetahui apakah antara variabel-variabel tersebut memiliki hubungan jangka panjang. environmental kuznets curve (dea yustisia, catur sugiyanto) 165 uji kointegrasi panel yang digunakan pada studi ini menggunakan uji yang dikembangkan oleh westerlund dan persyn (2008). uji ini menentukan apakah individu panel merupakan error correcting. nilai statistik gt dan ga menguji h0: ai = 0 untuk semua i dengan h1: ai < 0 untuk minimal satu i. sedangkan nilai pt dan pa menguji h0: ai = 0 untuk semua i dengan h1: ai < 0 untuk semua i. nilai pvalue pada statistik pa menunjukkan signifikansi sehingga menolak hipotesis nol tentang tidak ada kointegrasi, sehingga disimpulkan bahwa terdapat kointegrasi atau hubungan jangka panjang antara kerusakan lingkungan dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi. pengujian unit root dan kointegrasi pada data panel dilakukan untuk mengetahui apakah antarvariabel terkointegrasi sehingga layak untuk melakukan estimasi variabel pada level (baltagi, 2005). hasil diagnostik unit root dan kointegrasi pada studi ini menyimpulkan bahwa model ekc dapat diestimasi dengan menggunakan variabel pada level. tabel 2. uji kointegrasi variabel emisi dan gdp per kapita statistik kelompok negara value zvalue p-value gt hdc -1,826 -1,123 0,131 mdc -2,313 -1,987 0,023 ldc -2,544 -2,481 0,007 ga hdc -4,933 0,431 0,667 mdc -6,167 -0,140 0,444 ldc -4,129 0,693 0,756 pt hdc -6,388 -2,941 0,002 mdc -4,451 -1,773 0,038 ldc -4,742 -1,992 0,023 pa hdc -8,567 -3,276 0,001 mdc -4,058 -0,172 0,238 ldc -3,404 -0,413 0,340 pengaruh pertumbuhan ekonomi (gdppc dan gdppc2) terhadap emisi co2 per kapita, menunjukkan bahwa environmental kuznets curve hanya terjadi pada middle development countries, sedangkan high development countries dan low development countries menunjukkan gejala bahwa indikator kerusakan lingkungan terus meningkat dan belum mencapai titik balik, bahkan pada ldc tampak bahwa tingkat tabel 1. uji akar-akar unit data panel variabel high development countries middle development countries low development countries level i(1) level i(1) level i(1) ln_emisipc 19,2243 104,5182 11,9451 76,3855 5,1595 89,0000 (0,1566) (0,0000) (0,2887) (0,0000) (0,8803) (0,0000) ln_gdppc 8,1800 62,8714 2,9892 67,4198 0,3943 27,1529 (0,8797) (0,0000) (0,9817) (0,0000) (1,0000) (0,0025) ln_gdppc_sq 7,7893 63,4053 2,5657 67,5729 0,1828 24,4182 (0,8996) (0,0000) (0,9899) (0,0000) (1,0000) (0,0066) ln_oil_cons 10,9324 107,2534 37,9325 58,3068 6,5502 57,8136 (0,6913) (0,0000) (0,0000) (0,0000) (0,7671) (0,0000) ln_coal_cons 9,7266 90,9686 8,1994 90,3791 3,8046 67,8117 (0,7819) (0,0000) (0,6094) (0,0000) (0,9557) (0,0000) ln_gas_cons 16,2571 115,6055 14,3673 85,6499 5,4030 39,3803 (0,2979) (0,0000) (0,1569) (0,0000) (0,8627) (0,0000) ln_renew_ener 17,0245 151,2248 12,1494 90,9016 3,8077 84,7633 (0,2549) (0,0000) (0,2752) (0,0000) (0,9556) (0,0000) ln_ener_export 5,8506 120,1391 5,5405 58,1714 6,1883 60,7842 (0,9701) (0,0000) (0,8523) (0,0000) (0,7992) (0,0000) ln_ener_import 1,0872 116,7642 0,7771 95,4840 140,4509 61,4122 (1,000) (0,0000) (0,9999) (0,0000) (0,0000) (0,0000) jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 2, oktober 2014: 161-170 166 pertumbuhan ekonomi tidak signifikan mempengaruhi kerusakan lingkungan. karena model persamaan menggunakan logaritma natural, maka interpretasi koefisien parameter merupakan elastisitas antara variabel independen dan dependen. pada hdc, nilai β1<0 dan nilai β2>0 sehingga memiliki pola sebagaimana kurva u, yang merupakan lawan dari kurva ekc. pada hdc, awalnya ketika tingkat pendapatan per kapita naik sebesar 1%, maka tingkat emisi karbondioksida akan turun sebesar 9,32% ceteris paribus hingga akhirnya mencapai titik minimum tertentu, yaitu pada tingkat pendapatan sebesar us$3.472,719. titik minimum tersebut merupakan titik balik yang merupakan permulaan hubungan pendapatan per kapita dan emisi co2 per kapita akan kembali berbanding lurus, sehingga peningkatan pertumbuhan ekonomi sebesar 1% selanjutnya menaikkan tingkat emisi co2 per kapita sebesar 0,47% ceteris paribus. pada mdc, teori ekc tersebut terbukti dengan nilai β1 > 0 dan nilai β2< 0 dan menunjukkan kurva inverted-u. pada awalnya ketika tingkat pendapatan per kapita naik sebesar 1%, maka tingkat emisi karbondioksida akan naik sebesar 1,95% ceteris paribus hingga akhirnya mencapai titik maksimum tertentu, yaitu pada tingkat pendapatan sebesar us$1.539,56. selanjutnya, hubungan pendapatan per kapita dan emisi co2 per kapita akan berbanding terbalik, sehingga peningkatan pertumbuhan ekonomi sebesar 1% justru menurunkan tingkat emisi co2 per kapita sebesar 0,075% ceteris paribus. pengaruh konsumsi energi batu bara, minyak bumi, dan gas alam terhadap emisi co2, terdapat tiga klasifikasi negara (hdc, mdc, dan ldc) memiliki pola konsumsi energi yang berbeda-beda. konsumsi energi minyak bumi didominasi oleh hdc, sedangkan konsumsi energi batubara didominasi oleh ldc. untuk negara mdc sendiri, pola konsumsinya berimbang dalam ketiga jenis energi tersebut, bahkan dapat dikatakan rendah apabila dibandingkan dengan pola konsumsi hdc dan ldc, hal ini dipengaruhi pula oleh country size dan population effect. pada hdc, konsumsi energi minyak bumi memiliki efek terhadap emisi paling besar yaitu setiap kenaikan konsumsi energi minyak bumi sebesar 1% maka emisi karbondioksida per kapita akan tumbuh sebesar 0,25% ceteris paribus sedangkan setiap kenaikan konsumsi energi gas alam sebesar 1% akan meningkatkan emisi karbondioksida per kapita sebesar 0,0663% ceteris paribus. kedua jenis energi ini pula yang mempengaruhi emisi karbondioksida per kapita pada mdc. pada mdc sendiri, setiap kenaikan konsumsi energi minyak bumi sebesar 1% maka emisi karbondioksida per kapita akan tumbuh sebesar 0,286% ceteris paribus dan setiap kenaikan konsumsi energi gas alam sebesar 1% akan meningkatkan emisi karbondioksida per kapita sebesar 0,06% ceteris paribus pola konsumsi energi yang mempengaruhi emisi karbondioksida per kapita pada dua klasikasi negara tersebut berbeda pada ldc, di mana hanya konsumsi energi batubara yang mempengaruhi emisi karbondioksida per kapita. pada ldc, setiap kenaikan konsumsi energi batubara sebesar 1% maka tingkat emisi per kapita akan naik sebesar 0,25%. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa pola konsumsi energi pada tiga klasifikasi negara tersebut memiliki efek substitusi tersendiri sebagaimana terangkum dalam rodriguez dan penaboquete (2012) di mana ldc masih menggunakan mayoritas energi yang tidak ramah lingkungan. pengaruh ekspor dan impor energi terhadap emisi co2, ternyata tidak terlalu signifikan mempengaruhi emisi co2 per kapita pada ketiga klasifikasi negara. hanya pada hdc ditemukan bahwa variabel impor energi signifikan mempengaruhi emisi karbondioksida per kapita, yaitu apabila terdapat kenaikan impor energi sebesar 1% maka akan terjadi penurunan emisi karbondioksida per kapita sebesar 0,08% ceteris paribus. hal ini sejalan dengan kajian yang telah dilakukan mehrara dan hossein (2011) bahwa impor akan mendorong pengurangan kerusakan lingkungan. akan tetapi hal ini patut diwaspadai karena terjadi perpindahan proses produksi barang. pengaruh pengembangan energi alternatif terhadap emisi co2, memiliki dampak yang signifikan terhadap high development countries, middle development countries, maupun low development countries bahkan pada α = 1%. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa pengembangan energi alternatif sangat dibutuhkan untuk mendorong environmental kuznets curve (dea yustisia, catur sugiyanto) 167 clean environment dan sustainable development. pada model, dampak terbesar dari penggunaan energi alternatif terhadap emisi per kapita dirasakan oleh hdc, di mana setiap kenaikan 1% dari share penggunaan energi nuklir dan alternatif akan mampu menurunkan emisi karbondioksida per kapita sebesar 0,2356% ceteris paribus dan pada ldc, setiap kenaikan 1% dari share penggunaan energi nuklir dan alternatif akan menurunkan emisi karbondioksida per kapita sebesar 0,234% ceteris paribus. pengaruh variabel energi alternatif ini tidak berdampak terlalu besar pada mdc apabila dibandingkan dengan hdc dan ldc, di mana pada mdc setiap kenaikan 1% dari share energi alternatif terhadap total penggunaan energi hanya mampu menurunkan emisi per kapita sebesar 0,113% ceteris paribus. hal ini semakin mempertegas bahwa pengembangan energi alternatif memiliki dampak yang relatif besar demi terwujudnya pembangunan berkesinambungan. simpulan untuk menganalisis hubungan antara degradasi lingkungan dengan pembangunan ekonomi terkait orientasi energi serta menghindari adanya ommitted variables bias, studi ini menggunakan variabel selain pendapatan per kapita dalam menganalisis environmental kuznets curve, yaitu konsumsi energi, ekspor impor energi, dan share penggunaan energi alternatif yang didasarkan pada studi-studi sebelumnya. selain itu, untuk mengatasi kritik-kritik yang ditujukan pada studi ekc (cole (2003) dan stern (2004)), dilakukan pengujian heteroskedastisitas yang selama ini sering diabaikan pada studi ekc sebelumnya. pengujian akarakar unit pada data panel juga dilakukan dan diperoleh bahwa variabel-variabel pada model tidak stasioner pada level namun stasioner pada diferensiasi pertama. akan tetapi, pengujian kointegrasi menunjukkan bahwa terdapat hubungan jangka panjang antara variabel independen dengan variabel dependen sehingga terdapat hubungan jangka panjang yang stabil. pengujian-pengujian yang dilakukan tersebut diharapkan dapat menghasilkan estimasi yang baik. beberapa kesimpulan yang dapat diambil dari studi ini adalah: pertama, teori ekc hanya terbukti pada middle development countries, sedangkan high development countries dan low development countries menunjukkan gejala bahwa indikator kerusakan lingkungan terus meningkat dan belum mencapai titik balik, bahkan pada ldc tampak bahwa tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi tidak signifikan mempengaruhi kerusakan lingkungan; kedua, konsumsi energi yang signifikan berpengaruh terhadap emisi karbondioksida pada hdc dan mdc adalah minyak bumi dan gas alam, sedangkan pada ldc hanya konsumsi batubara yang memiliki pengaruh signifikan terhadap emisi karbondioksida dengan koefisien beta 0,235. pada hdc, energi minyak bumi memiliki efek terhadap emisi paling besar begitu pula dengan mdc dengan nilai koefisien beta masing-masing 0,250 dan 0,286; ketiga, ldc memiliki proporsi ekspor tertinggi yang mencapai rata-rata 14,6% melampaui mdc dan hdc yang nilai proporsi rata-ratanya masing-masing 6,84% dan 10,18%. namun rata-rata nilai ekspor ldc relatif rendah bila dibandingkan dengan rata-rata nilai ekspor mdc dan hdc, yaitu sebesar us$5,582 juta (ldc), us$7,132 juta (mdc), dan us$18,294 juta (hdc). ldc memiliki proporsi impor energi tertinggi dengan rata-rata sebesar 16,08%. nilai ini tidak jauh berbeda dengan ratarata proporsi impor energi mdc sebesar 13,17% dan hdc sebesar 10,58%. rata-rata nilai impor energi cukup tinggi apabila dibandingkan dengan nilai ekspornya, masingmasing sebesar us$58,14 juta; us$16,74 juta, dan us$22,31 juta. pola ekspor dan impor energi ternyata tidak terlalu signifikan mempengaruhi emisi co2 per kapita pada ketiga klasifikasi negara. hanya pada high development countries ditemukan bahwa variabel impor energi signifikan mempengaruhi emisi karbondioksida per kapita dengan koefisien beta sebesar -0,08; keempat, pengembangan energi alternatif dan nuklir memiliki dampak yang signifikan pada masing-masing kategori negara. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa pengembangan energi alternatif sangat dibutuhkan untuk mendorong clean environment dan sustainable development. beberapa rekomendasi yang dapat diberikan dari studi ini adalah: 1) untuk perkembangan studi ekc yang lebih, indikator degrajurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 2, oktober 2014: 161-170 168 dasi lingkungan dapat lebih diperluas cakupannya dan fokus pada negara amatan tertentu (model time series), sehingga dapat diperoleh hasil yang spesifik dan mendalam; 2) setiap negara harus dapat mempertahankan dan menguatkan regulasi lingkungan yang diterapkan di lingkungan internal, seperti pemberlakuan pajak lingkungan yang lebih baik. salah satu contoh pemberlakuan pajak adalah menerapkan pajak lebih besar pada bahan bakar yang tidak ramah lingkungan dan memberlakukan pajak karbon dengan menetapkan besar pajak pada tiap ton emisi co2. regulasi lingkungan tersebut dikuatkan dengan didukung oleh perundangan dan penegakan hukum; 3) bagi negara maju dengan tingkat pembangunan tinggi, kebijakan untuk menahan laju polusi sangat diperlukan mengingat bahwa negara yang termasuk dalam klasifikasi ini merupakan negara penyumbang emisi yang cukup besar dalam tataran global; 4) bagi negara sedang berkembang dengan tingkat pembangunan yang masih rendah diharapkan agar proses pembangunan tidak hanya bertujuan pada sisi pertumbuhan ekonomi, namun melibatkan pula aspek lingkungan di dalamnya; 5) pentingnya investasi dalam studi, penggunaan dan penyediaan infrastruktur energi alternatif yang secara interdisipliner, baik dalam lingkup lokal maupun internasional; 6) pentingnya mekanisme kesepakatan seperti clean development mechanism (cdm) dan joint implementation. masing-masing negara dapat menguatkan kebijakan lingkungan yang paling sesuai sesuai dengan kondisi sosial, regional, serta kontur lingkungannya. daftar pustaka aldy, j.e. (2004). an environmental kuznets curve analysis of u.s. state-level carbon dioxide emissions. department of economics, harvard university. baltagi, b.h. (2005). econometric analysis of panel data. 3rd ed. chichester: john wiley. fujii, h dan shunsuke, m. (2011). is environmental kuznets curve supported to sector-level co2 emission? empirical study for 10 industries in oecd countries. graduate school of environmental studies, tohoku university. greene, w. h., eds. (2000). econometric analysis. 4th ed. new jersey: prentice-hall. gujarati, d. n. (2003). basic econometrics. 4th ed. new york: mcgraw hill. he, j. dan richard, p. (2009). environmental kuznets curve for co2 in canada, cahiers de recherche 09-13, departement d'economique de la faculte d'administration à l'universite de sherbrooke. iwata, h., k. okada. dan s. samreth, (2009). empirical study of the environmental kuznets curve for co2 in france: the role of nuclear energy. mpra paper, 18997. kaufmann, r. et.al. (1998). the determinants of atmospheric so2 concentrations: reconsidering the environmental kuznets curve. ecological economics, 25(2): 209-220. lean, h. h. dan shahbaz. m.s. (2011). environmental kuznets curve and the role of energy consumption in pakistan. monash university: development research unit discussion paper devdp 10/05. mehrara, m. dan hossein a. (2011). pollution, energy consumption and economic growth: evidence from india, china and brazil. journal of social and development sciences 2 (5): 233-242. yolanda, p.b. dan rodriguez, m. ( 2012). another look at co2 emissions modeling: the role of energy prices in developed countries. rede (research in economics, business and the environment), universidade de vigo richmond, a.k. dan kaufmann, r.k. (2003). energy prices and turning points: the relationship between income and energy use/carbon emissions, the energy journal, international association for energy economics, number 4, 157-180. saboori, b., jamalludin bs dan saidatulakmal m. (2012). an empirical analysis of the environmental kuznets curve for co2 emissions in indonesia: the role of energy consumption and foreign trade. environmental kuznets curve (dea yustisia, catur sugiyanto) 169 international journal of economics and finance 4(2). sen, s. dan melenberg, b. (2011). the environmental kuznets curve: a panel data analysis. tilburg university. suri, v. and d. chapman, (1998). economic growth, trade and the energy: implications for the environmental kuznets curve. ecological economics, 25(2):195-208. timakova, m. (2009). is the environmental kuznets curve valid for the economic growth-environmental situation relationship of developing countries? bachelor thesis erasmus university of rotterdam waluyo, e.a. dan terawaki, t. (2012). environmental kuznets curve for deforestation in indonesia: an ardl bounds testing approach. forestry research institute, the ministry of forestry republic of indonesia. westerlund, j. dan persyn,d. (2008). error correction cointegration tests for panel data. the stata journal, 8(2): 232-241. vollebergh, herman r.j.,bertrand melenberg, dan elbert dijkgraaf, (2008). identifying environmental kuznets curves: the case of so2 and co2 emissions. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 2, oktober 2014: 161-170 170 lampiran t ab el 3 . h as il e st im as i s ta ta 1 2 t an d a *, * *, d an * ** m as in g m as in g m en u n ju k k an s ig n if ik an si p ad a α = 1 p er se n , 5 p er se n , d an 1 0 p er se n jesp | jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan article type: research paper the impact of natural disasters on economy in nusa tenggara barat in 2018 suci nurmaya tangkudung abstract: one of the provinces in indonesia that has a high level of disaster vulnerability is nusa tenggara barat (ntb). the series of earthquakes in july-august 2018 had caused direct losses in the form of casualties and physical damage to infrastructures such as houses, roads, bridges and production facilities. disasters also caused indirect impacts that can be measured through changes in macroeconomic indicators such as economic growth, foreign tourist visits, the number of passengers on land and air transportation, the occupancy rates of a star hotel and non-star hotel rooms, export-import, unemployment, and inflation. through literature review and descriptive analysis of official statistical data produced by the indonesian statistics bureau (bps), it was found that the response and sensitivity of these indicators were different from the shock of the earthquake. in general, almost all of these indicators show negative changes after the earthquake, except inflation. this reflects that earthquake natural disasters have a negative impact on the economy in ntb. keywords: disaster vulnerability; earthquakes; economic conditions. jel classification: q54, o44 introduction the combination of geographical location and conditions makes indonesia very vulnerable to natural disasters, such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, floods, droughts, and landslides. natural disasters can make changes in the structure and economic development of a region. one of the biggest disasters in indonesia's history was the earthquake and tsunami in aceh and north sumatra at the end of 2004. as a result of the earthquake and tsunami, the post-disaster aceh economy contracted around 0.12 percent in 2005. aceh also experienced a significant shift in structure sectoral economy which has resulted in changes in employment in several sectors (ardi, 2009). natural disasters not only damage homes and businesses but also affect the livelihoods and economic conditions of the community (cannon, 1994). approximately 32 thousand workers in bantul regency are estimated to lose their jobs, especially in the manufacturing, service and trade industries after the earthquake that occurred in yogyakarta in 2005. these conditions affiliation: badan pusat statistik provinsi kepulauan riau. *correspondence: suci_nt@bps.go.id this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.20.1.5014 citation: tangkudung, s.n. (2019). the impact of natural disasters on economy in nusa tenggara barat in 2018. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 20(1), 64-70 article history received: november 2018 accepted: april 2019 http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp tangkudung impact of natural disasters on economy in nusa tenggara barat in 2018 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 64 have implications for the economic life of the community, indicated by an increase in the number of poor families, namely 3.3 percent, from 262,257 families before the disaster became 266,277 families after the disaster (hidayati, 2012). disasters can disrupt and even destroy various functions and institutions in one instance and can have a socio-economic impact on the wider community. in its development, disasters are not only caused by nature as a trigger, but can also be caused by human behavior (violence, technology, and deterioration as a trigger) (pelling, özerdem, & barakat, 2002). it can be concluded from an economic perspective that a disaster is an event or series of events from nature and non-nature that creates a concern for the economic system that creates a systemic impact on the structure and economic development of a region (bull, 1994). furthermore, the long-term impact that might arise is the occurrence of socioeconomic problems in the region. disaster events have an impact on an individual scale or on a national scale (macroeconomics). the impact of the individual scale is relatively difficult to calculate because the values and perceptions between individuals are relatively different due to disasters. one way to look at the impact of a disaster is to look at some macroeconomic indicators that are likely to be affected by the disaster (medioda, rodriguez, garcia, paris, 2013). the economic structure of the affected areas reflected through the gross regional domestic product (grdp) is likely to experience a shift in the pattern of growth in several sectors (albala-bertrand, 1993). investment is also likely to decline due to the cancellation of projects in the affected area (mechler, 2003). the balance of payments will also experience a deficit due to a decline in the value of exports and a decline in tourism activities (sharpley, 2005). inflation can also occur due to increased demand for certain commodities during the post-disaster recovery process (popp, 2006). changes in the structure of employment at the time of disaster and post-disaster are also possible due to the cessation of the production process of several sectors and the transfer of labor in the post-disaster recovery process. one of the provinces in indonesia that has a high level of vulnerability to disasters is west nusa tenggara (ntb). based on data from the national disaster management agency (bnpb) it can be concluded that of the 14 types of potential disasters that exist in indonesia, 11 of them are in the ntb region. the main cause is the geographical condition and geological vulnerability of ntb in the form of mountains and coastlines. 339 disasters occurred in ntb over the past ten years (bnpb, 2018). when viewed from the value of the 2016 disaster risk index (irb), the incidence of disasters in ntb has considerable potential losses. this is reflected in the composition of the disaster risk index (irb) which shows the potential loss of more than 4,000 physical victims and potential economic losses of more than 7 trillion rupiah. the disasters that have occurred in ntb are very diverse, such as floods, landslides, tidal waves, tornadoes, droughts, volcanic eruptions, and earthquakes. according to data compiled by bnpb, the occurrence of earthquakes in ntb occurred 10 times in the period 2008-2018. tangkudung impact of natural disasters on economy in nusa tenggara barat in 2018 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 65 table 1 data on damage and/or loss due to the earthquake in ntb 2018 component damage and/or loss society 564 people died, 1,584 were injured, and 445,343 were displaced. housing 180,163 damaged houses consisting of approximately 33,000 heavily damaged, medium damaged around 20,000 and around 127,000 slightly damaged. infrastructure 97 irrigation network units were damaged, 61 road sections were damaged, 32 drinking water supply systems were damaged, 17 bridges were damaged. education 1,194 schools damaged, consisting of 254 pauds, 639 elementary schools, 155 junior high schools, 72 high schools, 56 vocational schools, and 8 special schools. health facilities 321 health facilities damaged, consisting of 86 puskesmas, 115 poskesdes/ polindes, 9 hospitals, 111 other health facilities. worship place 630 mosques, 461 small mosques, 1 church, 1 monastery, and 50 temples. economic facility 46 market, 566 kiosks/shops, 138 hotels damaged the event that was enough to capture national and international attention was the occurrence of the earthquake on 29 july 2018 (6.4 sr), 5 august 2018 (7 sr), and 19 august 2018 (6.9 sr). this disaster caused more than 380 deaths, more than 13,000 people were injured, and nearly 400,000 people were registered as refugees. from an economic standpoint, the losses from this disaster are estimated at rp. 7.45 trillion (wismabrata, 2018). the high estimated value of the loss is due to a large amount of damage that occurs in residential areas, public infrastructure, production facilities, offices, and other public facilities. estimates of the value of these losses have not included potential post-disaster losses such as declining population productivity in the economy, reduced tourist visits, and decreased investor confidence in investing in indonesia, especially in the ntb region. the post-disaster economic impact in the affected areas has recently received much attention from researchers. this is because the intensity and opportunities for natural disasters are getting higher (noy & vu, 2010). as explained earlier, the measurement of economic losses caused by natural disasters is still difficult to calculate. on the other hand, the government needs to think of a post-disaster recovery policy strategy in accordance with its estimated impact (dunn, 2015). research method this study used a qualitative descriptive approach, an approach used to describe systematically, factually, and accurately about the facts between the investigated phenomena (arikunto, 2002). this study used literature studies and was based on official statistical data from the central statistics agency (bps) to see the economic impact of the post-earthquake disaster in ntb through a descriptive analysis of the comparison of several macroeconomic indicators before the disaster and post-disaster earthquake in 2018 in ntb. tangkudung impact of natural disasters on economy in nusa tenggara barat in 2018 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 66 result and discussion natural disasters can have a negative economic impact in the short term because they can reduce the production of goods and services. this decrease can be reflected in changes in the value of post-disaster gross regional domestic product (grdp). the magnitude of the impact of natural disasters on decreasing gdp is very dependent on the type of disaster experienced and the structure of the economic strength of a region. based on data from the contribution of quarter 3 grdp in 2018, more than a quarter (25.31 percent) of the economic strength of ntb is supported by agriculture, forestry, and fisheries. furthermore, the wholesale and retail trade sector, car and motorcycle repairs contributed significantly, which was 14.93 percent. the existence of pt. amman mineral nusa tenggara (pt. amnt) engaged in copper and gold mining contributed significantly to the mining and quarrying sector which contributed 11.68 percent to the creation of added value in ntb. the earthquake made the ntb economy in quarter 3 2018 contracted by 2.14 percent compared to the previous quarter (q to q). almost all grdp sectors contracted in q3 2018. only four sectors were able to maintain positive growth, manufacturing industry 64.38 percent; information and communication 2.54 percent; health services and social activities 1.96 percent; and other services by 9.99 percent. the biggest contraction occurred in the construction sector, which amounted to -16.53 percent. this happened due to a delay or even the cancellation of plans for several infrastructure development projects in the event of an earthquake. the mining and quarrying sector also experienced a significant contraction of 12.56 percent. however, if we look more closely at the contractions that occur in the mining and quarrying sector, they are not fully caused by earthquakes. a negative growth trend in this sector has begun to be seen since 2017 which contracted by -19.86 percent (y on y). it is increasingly clear if we see economic growth (q to q) without the metal ore mining sub-sector contracting by 0.36 percent. another sector that was negatively affected by the earthquake was the provision of accommodation and food and drink sectors which contracted by -10.29 percent compared to the previous quarter. this happened because of the decline in tourism activities after the earthquake. as one of the national and international tourist destinations, ntb tourism performance had decreased after the earthquake. this can be seen through the number of foreign tourists coming to ntb through the entrance of lombok international airport (bil) in august 2018 which decreased by 69.18 percent compared to july 2018. this condition continued until the following month. foreign tourist visits in september still experienced negative growth, although not as big as the july-august decline, which was down by 10.26 percent. tourism activities can also be seen through the total of passengers who arrive and depart by air or sea lanes. before the earthquake, the number of passengers arriving and departing each month showed a positive trend. however, after the earthquake, there was a significant decrease in the number of passengers who came to ntb by sea. in july 2018 there was a decrease in the number of passengers arriving by sea by 27.70 percent compared to june 2018. the peak was in august 2018 which experienced a decline in the number of passengers arriving by sea by 40.26 percent. the same thing happened to the number of passengers who came through domestic flight routes in august which fell by 23.41 percent from july 2018. tangkudung impact of natural disasters on economy in nusa tenggara barat in 2018 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 67 another tourism indicator that shows a decline in tourism performance in ntb after the earthquake is the star-rated hotel and non-star hotel room occupancy rates (tpk). room occupancy rates (tpk) of star-rated hotels in ntb before the earthquake struck ranged between 40-53 percent. however, after the earthquake, room occupancy rates (tpk) for star-rated hotels in august was only 28.18 percent. this figure means that only 28.18 percent of rooms are available in star-rated hotels in august 2018 used by visiting guests. this figure fell 30.61 points from the same period of the previous year which reached 54.99 percent. in line with that, non-star hotels' tpk only reached 16.48 percent. when compared to the same period of the previous year (y on y), non-star room occupancy rates (tpk) for hotels fell 10.93 points from 27.41 percent in august 2017. apart from tourism, the earthquake disaster also affected the export-import activities in ntb. as a copper-producing region, the dominance of non-oil/mineral mining goods is very large against the value of exports every month in ntb. at least more than 80 percent of ntb export value is obtained from non-oil mining/quarrying goods, namely copper concentrate. the ntb export value during july 2018-october 2018 was quite fluctuating, in july it fell by 45.67 percent, in august it fell by 21.06 percent, in september it rose 29.67 percent, and in october it fell by 95.73 percent. fluctuations in the value of exports occurred not in full due to the occurrence of the earthquake but were influenced by the performance of mining companies in ntb. the impact of the earthquake was seen in the increase in the value of imports in the post-disaster. in august 2018 there was an increase in import value by 37.36 percent compared to july 2018, september experienced a decrease of 69.33 percent and october increased by 159.6 percent. the trend of an increase in import values in the post-disaster time is unavoidable because most of the goods needed to continue the production process in the industrial sector and also after the disaster needs of reconstruction cannot be met by domestic goods. as a result of the tendency of falling export values and rising import values, the positive trade balance of ntb began to decline. the ntb export trade net in the third quarter of 2018 was recorded to still experience a surplus of us $30.85 million. this value had fallen considerably compared to the condition of the previous 3 years, which reached us $393.69 million. natural disasters can also result in a shift in the labor structure of a region (ohtake, okuyama, sasaki, yasui, 2012). this happened due to the damage of production capacity and infrastructure which could make residents lose their livelihoods. in addition, the postdisaster reconstruction and rehabilitation process made the population faced with two choices, continue working as usual or focus on participating in the post-disaster reconstruction and rehabilitation process, especially for themselves and their families, and their place of residence (gordon, 2004). the area that was most affected by the ntb earthquake was north lombok regency. therefore, the august 2018 employment statistics released by bps did not cover north lombok regency because the august 2018 national labor force survey (sakernas) could not be carried out in north lombok regency. thus, the ntb employment data in the condition of august 2018 that will be discussed does not cover north lombok regency. to maintain comparability between times, the data that will be used is the regency/city level data, especially the regencies/cities that were most severely affected by the ntb earthquake, city of mataram. tangkudung impact of natural disasters on economy in nusa tenggara barat in 2018 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 68 table 2 summary of macroeconomic indicators of the impact of earthquakes in ntb indicator period change qr. ii 2018 qr. iii 2018 july 2018 august 2018 august 2017 august 2018 grdp (trillion rupiah) 23,04 22,55 -2,14 percent foreign tourist (visits) 13.980 4.308 -69,18 percent number of sea passengers (pax) 14.685 8.969 -40,26 percent number of air passengers (pax) 217.210 164.185 -23,41 percent ror of star-rated hotel (percent) 54,99 28,18 -30,61 point ror of non-star-rated hotel (percent) 27,41 16,48 -10,93 point export (million us$) 171,54 119,55 -30,31 percent import (million us$) 75,84 88,7 +17,42 percent nett export (million us$) 95,7 30,85 -67,76 percent our* mataram city (percent) 5,35 6,72 +1,37 point cpi / inflation 132,69 132,56 0,10 percent source: (bps, 2018c, 2018d, 2018e, 2018a, 2018b, 2018f) the open unemployment rate (tpt) in the city of mataram in august 2018 rose 1.37 points to 6.72 percent from 5.35 percent in august 2017. if seen from the business structure of the working population, there was a decrease in the percentage of the population working in the agricultural sector of the total working population in august 2018 compared to august 2017, which was 35.81 percent to 33.48 percent. this is normal because one of the impacts of the ntb earthquake was the destruction of the main infrastructure and agricultural support such as irrigation networks, roads, and bridges. in line with the contraction in the construction sector grdp, the percentage of the population working in the construction sector against the total working population also declined to 6.91 percent from 7.41 percent in august 2017. the shift in the structure of employment also caused the potential for reducing the income of the population. with the income of the population which tended to decrease due to the loss of employment, the purchasing power of goods and services became relatively weak. however, this condition was not exacerbated by fluctuations in the inflation value which usually also rose due to the scarcity of goods and services in the post-disaster market. the combined inflation of two cities in ntb during the two months’ post-disaster (august and september) showed a controlled figure, even deflation occurred in the second month, which was 0.10 percent in august 2018 and deflation of 0.28 percent in september 2018. however, if seen based on expenditure groups, it was evident that deflation in august was more due to the decline in the transportation, communication, and financial services index. this is due to the low demand for air transportation that makes the index. air transport consumer prices fell by 0.24 percent. tangkudung impact of natural disasters on economy in nusa tenggara barat in 2018 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 69 conclusion based on macroeconomic data discussed in the previous section the earthquake that occurred in ntb in july-august 2018 caused a negative impact on the economy. the response and sensitivity of several macroeconomic indicators vary. some indicators respond directly to the disaster which can be seen through a decrease in these indicators when compared to the period before the disaster. indicators that reflect tourism activities respond quickly to these events, including decreasing foreign tourist visits, decreasing the number of passengers on the sea and air transportation, and decreasing ror of star-rated hotel and non-star hotels. other indicators such as export and import, economic growth, open unemployment rate, and inflation tend to respond more slowly and new changes will be seen in the medium to long term. recommendations based on the results of the study, several policy recommendations can be given related to efforts to minimize the impact of earthquake natural disasters on the economy of a region, especially ntb local governments need to find out the damaged economic units and provide financial stimulus through easy access to capital loans to financial institutions in order to maintain the momentum of business productivity to provide added value to the regional economy. local governments need to collaborate with the private sector that has large-scale business capacities to assist small-scale economic units affected by the earthquake through the corporate social responsibility (csr) program. local governments and the central government need to design disaster insurance schemes for community houses and especially business 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(2018, august 15). fakta terbaru gempa lombok, korban bertambah hingga instruksi jokowi. regional kompas. retrieved from https://regional.kompas.com/read/2018/08/15/20442381/fakta-terbaru-gempalombok-korban-bertambah-hingga-instruksi-jokowi?page=all https://doi.org/10.14203/jki.v7i1.84 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2010.03.002 https://doi.org/10.1191/1464993402ps042ra https://scholarworks.uni.edu/mtie/vol8/iss1/7 https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500508668222 https://regional.kompas.com/read/2018/08/15/20442381/fakta-terbaru-gempa-lombok-korban-bertambah-hingga-instruksi-jokowi?page=all https://regional.kompas.com/read/2018/08/15/20442381/fakta-terbaru-gempa-lombok-korban-bertambah-hingga-instruksi-jokowi?page=all jesp | jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan article type: research paper awareness and knowledge assessment of sustainable development goals among university students hafsah fajar jati1, susilo nur aji cokro darsono1,4*, dedy tri hermawan1, wahdi april salasi yudhi2, and ferry fadzlul rahman3 abstract: the sustainable development goals (sdgs) are built on the successes of the millennium development goals (mdgs), which consists of 17 goals as a universal call to action to end poverty, protect the planet, and ensure that all people enjoy peace and prosperity. the assessment of people’s awareness and knowledge on sdgs is of paramount importance to support any subsequent actions. the awareness of sdgs is higher compared to the previous agenda mdgs only in particular emerging countries; hence, it requires better progress after more than three years of its establishment. university students, as the agent of changes, are supposed to have a higher level of awareness and knowledge rather than average. when the university students have a better awareness and higher knowledge on sdgs, they can actively contribute to support, promote, and achieve the development goals by making use of their academic background. the objective of this research is to assess the level of awareness and knowledge on sustainable development goals (sdgs) among university students in universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta, indonesia. data for this research are collected by field survey and questionnaire. this research analyzes data by using descriptive statistics and chi-square. the results show 89.5% of students are aware and 62.5% of students have high knowledge about sdgs. we found that students’ knowledge is only affected by the accessibility of information and students’ awareness is related to not only accessibility of information but also gender. both awareness and knowledge are not affected by students’ participation in the organization. keywords: awareness; knowledge; sustainable development goals (sdgs); chisquare analysis. jel classification: i25 introduction sustainable development goals (sdgs) or the 2030 agenda for sustainable development initiated by the united nations has been a global agenda for a better future. awareness and knowledge regarding sdgs vary widely among people from different countries. awareness means “knowing something exists and important” while knowledge is “the information, understanding and skills that you gain through education or experience” affiliation: 1 universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta, yogyakarta, indonesia. 2 sampoerna university, jakarta, indonesia 3 universitas muhammadiyah kalimantan timur, samarinda, indonesia. 4 asia university, taichung, taiwan. *correspondence: susilonuraji@umy.ac.id this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.20.2.5022 citation: jati, h. f., darsono, s. n. a. c., hermawan, t., yudhi, w. a. s., & rahman, f. f. (2019). awareness and knowledge assessment of sustainable development goals among university students. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 20(2), 163-175. article history received: 25 august 2019 accepted: 25 october 2019 mailto:susilonuraji@umy.ac.id http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/6951 jati, darsono, hermawan, yudhi, & rahman awareness and knowledge assessment of sustainable development goals… jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 164 (oxford learner's dictionaries). the level of society’s awareness and knowledge of sdgs reflects whether they are aware or not, and how far they know general and particular information about sdgs; thus, they assign importance for themselves as well as government towards sdgs practices. the project of sustainable development goals started since millenium development goals (mdgs) ended in 2015 with some notable results: reduction in poverty, increase in primary education enrolment and gender parity, fall in child and global maternal mortality, and better access to sanitation. however, since some achievements have not met the initial target hence they are not ended yet and continued to the successor agenda – sustainable development goals (sdgs) – with more substantial aspects compared to the previous one. the sdgs comprise 17 goals and 169 targets include ecological, social, and economic aspects. while mdgs were aimed mainly for developing countries for the sake of their advancement, sdgs would be infused to all states on this planet, either developing and developed countries. united nation’s blueprint that craves better world by 2030 has set the 17 goals to pursue, (1) no poverty; (2) zero hunger; (3) good health and well-being; (4) quality education; (5) gender equality; (6) clean water and sanitation; (7) affordable and clean energy; (8) decent work and economic growth; (9) industry, innovation and infrastructure; (10) reduced inequalities; (11) sustainable cities and communities; (12) responsible consumption and production; (13) climate action; (14) life below water; (15) life on land; (16) peace, justice and strong institutions; (17) partnership for the goals. although being compiled by that intricate goals and targets, the lane of sustainable development goals allows a common feature; the greater technological flexibility and less cost of actions that will be possible if policies implementation starts sooner. forming sustainable people and planet is attached to the educational system. higher education therefore plays a significant role in facing the current agenda by giving education to the agent of change in university then giving birth to the well-educated graduates. omisore, babarinde, bakare, and asekun-olarinmoye (2017) found in osun state university, southwestern nigeria, only 43% of 450 students and staffs were aware of sdgs and 4.2% with good knowledge. regarding this, the students’ awareness and knowledge of 2030 agenda are said as crucial issues for higher education. this study indicated a similar finding with the previous survey by lampert & papadongonas (2016) that found only around 1% citizens who know the sdgs ‘very well’, while 25% say they know the name only. as this lack might suggest, to the contrary to firms or profit-oriented companies, sustainability reporting by universities is still in its infancy (adams & petrella, 2010; lopatta & jaeschke, 2014). this is also what has been a concern for research on sustainability reports disclosed by universities (ceulemans, molderez, & van liedekerke, 2015). however, a research conducted in university libraries in edo state found that most of the respondents had a high awareness due to the contribution of social media as an effective campaign tool (ejechi, 2018). similarly, people who are well-informed through personal study of the sdgs or other means or academic staff are those who have a good knowledge of sdgs. a survey for 171 respondents shows a total of 141 (82.46%) were aware of sdgs and 140 (81.87%) got the full meaning of sdgs correctly (shehu, shehu, & ode, 2018). the jati, darsono, hermawan, yudhi, & rahman awareness and knowledge assessment of sustainable development goals… jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 165 framework and roadmap carried in the sdgs can be integrated into a comprehensive area of initiatives, including pedagogy and learning, academic research, campus management, practices, and impact as an organization (décamps, barbat, carteron, hands, & parkes, 2017). awareness is “an understanding of the activities of others, which provides a context for your own activity” (dourish & bellotti, 1992), the definition of awareness here is positioned upon the level of understanding. furthermore, gafoor (2012) defined awareness as “the state or ability to perceive, to feel, or to be conscious of events, objects, or sensory patterns” and it is indicated as the level of consciousness. de quincey (2006) moreover seemed to fuse awareness with experience when talking about the light of consciousness being on. being aware means to know, to realize or interested in knowing about something, or, to know that something is important. awareness measurement has the object of what respondents know as well as what they do not know. it can either be tests of maximum performance or the tests of typical performance. in addition, it was pointed out that the foremost target of awareness should be to urge collaboration and particularly aspects of coordination, communication, and assistance (gutwin and greenberg, 2000). abhary, andriansen, begovac, djukic, qin, spuzic, and xing (2009) identified the knowledge processing as a key factor affecting social and economic sustainability, hence to understand the drawbacks of effective communication, sharing and use of knowledge are vital for the future of society. majority theories defining the knowledge and explaining its nature have been integrated into two perspectives: rationalism and empiricism. both theories accept that “knowledge is a justified true belief.” additionally, the main metaphors used for knowledge in the managerial literature are mentioned as follows: knowledge as objects, knowledge nuggets, knowledge as an iceberg, and knowledge as stocks and flows (bolisani & bratianu, 2018). awareness and knowledge have been inflated to have the same essence in certain context. despite some literatures have been vague to distinguish awareness and knowledge, we simplify the notion that awareness is more about personalization, perceiving, and self-focus, therefore depends on and directs to personal concerns to respond to something; while knowledge is attached to impersonal and factual nature, not only be true or correct but also justified (hunt, 2003; gafoor, 2012; shaari, ali, & ismail, 2015; trevethan, 2017). the assessment of awareness of sdgs examines whether people have heard or not, how important to themselves, and what their stance and necessity for sdgs. while, knowledge is assessed to investigate their level of understanding regarding information related to sdgs. in 2007 and 2016, 13 countries were surveyed for assessing public awareness of mdgs and sdgs respectively. it is found that that the awareness of sdgs is higher and the support is stronger compared to the previous agenda mdgs only in particular emerging countries such as india, indonesia, and kenya. the result of the 2016 survey was nearly three out of ten people (28%) who said they have some or much awareness of the new goals, whereas in 2007, on average, two out of ten people (20%) claimed familiarity with jati, darsono, hermawan, yudhi, & rahman awareness and knowledge assessment of sustainable development goals… jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 166 the mdgs (globescan, 2016). in accordance, aiesec's youth speak report (2016) stated that young people have a higher level of awareness than average towards sdgs. the assessment of both awareness and knowledge has been important to evaluate how far the global agenda has reached society and to know the progress after more than three years of its establishment. as the tagline “leave no one behind” created on sdgs, everyone is sure the participant in this project and that must be started by the good level of awareness and knowledge before going through some important actions and achieving the goals eventually. due to the vigor commitment and earlier actions made by the indonesian government, indonesia is one of the world’s best examples of civil society, private sector, philanthropy and academic institutions actively embracing the sdgs. the presidential decree no 59/2017 as a regulation for sustainable development goals to be implemented in indonesia and it establishes the national governance structure as well as a distinct role to non-government actors (bahuet & sopacua, 2018). higher education systems like universities composed of lecturers, students, and staff set the supportive ground to promote the sustainable planet and people through an academic environment. the sdgs should be the substantial materials in universities setting particularly for students who act as the agent of changes. therefore, this paper aims to assess the level of awareness and knowledge on sustainable development goals (sdgs) among university students in universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta, indonesia. the rest of this paper is organized as follows. the second section describes the research methods used in this study. the third section presents the results followed by the discussion thereof. the final section is the conclusion. research method the data was collected by an online questionnaire, consisting of three major parts in addition to the basic information of the surveyed university students. the first part involves the student’s knowledge of sdgs by using the multiple choices question of general information about sdgs. the second part was about the student’s awareness of sdgs by using the likert five-level measurement. the last part was made to check the accessibility of sdgs information in university students. the questionnaire was sent by mail to 450 students in the faculty of economics, universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta. the number of respondents was 203 (45.11%), and three were discarded for incomplete information. in this research, we firstly employ descriptive statistics to describe the characteristics of respondents. then we conduct chi-square analysis to investigate the effect among gender, participation in organization, and accessibility on the level of knowledge and awareness for the university students. in general, the chi-square test determines the probability that two categorical variables are related. this research uses p<0.05 to reject the null hypothesis that the variables are independent. jati, darsono, hermawan, yudhi, & rahman awareness and knowledge assessment of sustainable development goals… jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 167 result and discussion two hundred one students were responded to this research. the table of descriptive statistics is shown in table 1. there were 100 (50%) male and 100 (50%) female students. in this research, there were 118 (59%) students who joined the organization in university and 82 (41%) students did not join any organization in university. a total of 125 (62.5%) had high knowledge of sdgs, while 75 (37.5%) students had poor knowledge of sdgs. the university students were aware of sdgs for 89.5% (179 students), while 10.5% (21 students) were not aware of sdgs. there were 96 (48%) students had high accessibility and 104 (52%) students had low accessibility to the sdgs information. the result of knowledge assessment about sdgs as shown in table 2 was generally high, with 82.5% students answered correctly for the meaning of sdgs, 80.5% knew exactly how to achieved sdgs target, 72,5% students knew the amount of sdgs goals, 72% had correct answer on the name of previous development goals, 66% students had correct answer about the year for sdgs to be ended and 63% students knew who might be obliged to implement sdgs. while, there were three questions that had the wrong answer by 49% for the name of the organization that launched sdgs, 46.5% for both sdgs 5p agenda and total targets in sdgs, and 42,5% for the question of the year when sdgs was launched. if the student was able to answer more than five questions correctly, it would be taken into account for the student to have high knowledge. table 1 descriptive statistics variable frequency percentage (%) gender male 100 50% female 100 50% participant in organization organization 118 59% non-organization 82 41% knowledge about sdgs high knowledge 125 62.5% poor knowledge 75 37.5% awareness on sdgs aware 179 89.5% not aware 21 10.5% accessibility for sdgs information high access 96 48% low access 104 52% table 2 knowledge about sdgs knowledge about sdgs correct (%) wrong (%) meaning of sdgs 82.5 17.5 the year it was launched 57.5 42.5 name of previous development goals 72 28 how many goals of sdgs how many targets in sdgs 72.5 53.5 27.5 46.5 5 p of sdgs agenda 53.5 46.5 name of organization that launched sdgs 51 49 who have obligation to implement sdgs 63 37 the year it ended 66 34 how to achieved sdgs target 80.5 19.5 jati, darsono, hermawan, yudhi, & rahman awareness and knowledge assessment of sustainable development goals… jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 168 table 3 accessibility of sdgs information accessibility of sdgs information yes (%) no (%) know the sdgs website 38 62 read news about sdgs 48.5 51.8 watch sdgs video 40.5 59.5 see the sdgs campaign in youtube& social media 54.5 45.5 have you ever heard the tagline of sdgs “leave no one behind” 50 50 among all “knowledge” questions, the first question about what stands for the name “sdgs” got the most correct answer. more than seventy percent of students also knew that there was a previous agenda called millenium development goals. however, many of them still did not know that sdgs was launched in 2015 and would end in 2030. most students correctly answered that sdgs consist of 17 goals, but so many were mistaken in answering the number of targets, which is 169 targets. agenda 2030 was made upon principles so-called “5p” consisting of people, planet, prosperity, peace, and partnership. the question regarding 5p was answered incorrectly by almost half of the students. we asked them to choose which one among the options not included in the five ps and only 107 students were unmistaken to answer poverty. there were 98 students who did not know that the un (united nations) was the organization that launched the sdgs agenda, while this information must have been important and familiar. the majority chose that sdgs must be implemented by all society without exception and the way must be integrated mutually in order to reach the goals and targets. following the finding on the knowledge that the number of students with high knowledge was 25% higher than the ones with poor knowledge, the total students who were aware of sdgs exceeded those who were not aware, which is about 79 percent difference. the first question about awareness asked the students if they ever heard about sustainable development goals and 21.9% answer referred to those who never heard it. but as university students, about 65.6% agreed to have a commitment at least to one goal and 61.2% were interested in sdgs, as was asked in the following questions. the majority of students were aware that indonesia also took part in the implementation of sdgs; thus, it would be a responsibility to all of us and the indonesian government should provide sufficient supports and political will to develop the country in achieving the agenda 2030’s targets. table 3 shows the accessibility of sdgs information among university students. previously, table 1 had informed the results of assessment consisted of low access for 52% (104 students) and 48% (96 students) had high access to sdgs. this result is explained further in table 3 and we found that 54.5% of the student mostly accessed sdgs information through the sdgs campaign on youtube and other social media such as instagram, twitter, facebook. whereas, around 62% of students did not know the website of sdgs which provides full of information and recent data about sustainable development goals. a series of chi-squares analysis was conducted to explore the effects of gender, organization, and accessibility on student’s knowledge about sdgs. as shown in table 4, jati, darsono, hermawan, yudhi, & rahman awareness and knowledge assessment of sustainable development goals… jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 169 table 4 the chi-square analysis on knowledge variable description category knowledge poor knowledge high knowledge frequency percentage (%) frequency percentage (%) gender gender of student male 43 21.5 57 28.5 x2 = 2.581 female 32 16 68 34 p value = 0.108 organization student participation in organization join organization 41 20.5 77 38.5 x2 = 0.932 not join organization 34 17 48 24 p value = 0.334 accessibility accessibility of sdgs information high access 16 8 80 40 x2 = 34.188 low access 59 29.5 45 22.5 p value = 0.001 source: spss data processing the p-values of gender and organization were bigger than 0.05; it means that the knowledge of sdgs in students was not affected by their gender and their participation in an organization. while, the accessibility on sdgs information had an effect on knowledge of sdgs, with a p-value lower than 0.05 and x2 = 34.188. the results from table 4 demonstrated that the student who had high accessibility on sdgs information tended to gain a higher knowledge of sdgs. the result in table 5 shows the chi-square analysis to examine the effect of gender, organization, and accessibility on student’s awareness in sustainable development goals. there were two variables that have p-value lower than 0.05, such as gender and accessibility, while the p-value of participation in an organization was 0.514, higher than 0.05. therefore, gender and accessibility had effects on the student’s awareness of sdgs. female students tended to be more aware, around 47.5% than the male students, 42%. the students with high accessibility on sdgs information were around 47% aware on sdgs. over three years of the implementation of sdgs in indonesia, this research found that the knowledge of sdgs in university students was good, with 62.5% of students had high knowledge. this is important because university student as an agent of change should have high knowledge of sdgs as their basic knowledge to develop the community and nation. while, based on the questions on knowledge about sdgs, we found that few students still lacked knowledge on basic information of sdgs such as the year it was launched, few agendas of sdgs and the organization which launched sdgs. however, the student knowledge result in this study is higher than the study from shehu et al. (2018) among clinical medical students and omisore et al. (2017) among university community in nigeria possibly because of the socio-demographic condition between the study area. jati, darsono, hermawan, yudhi, & rahman awareness and knowledge assessment of sustainable development goals… jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 170 table 5 the chi-square analysis on awareness variable description category awareness not aware aware frequency percentage (%) frequency percentage (%) gender gender of student male 16 8 84 42 x2 = 6.438 female 5 2.5 95 47.5 p value = 0.011 organization student participation in organization join organization 11 5.5 107 53.5 x2 = 0.425 not join organization 10 5 72 36 p value = 0.514 accessibility accessibility of sdgs information high access 2 1 94 47 x2 = 13.917 low access 19 9.5 85 42 p value = 0.001 source: spss data processing further, the result of chi-square analysis showed that gender and participation in an organization had no relationship with the knowledge on sdgs among the students. it was in line with goal number five in sdgs such as “gender equality”, achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls. female or women will increase their own family wellbeing when their education increases (kabeer, 2010). therefore, nowadays there are no problems regarding the process of gaining knowledge in university; all of the male and female students have the equal right to access the knowledge. the student participation in an organization also does not have a relationship with the knowledge on the sdgs. students that have no participation in an organization might have high knowledge of sdgs. it happens because not all the organization in university specifically discusses and follows sdgs. while, the information of sdgs is available on many platforms, such as books, journals, websites, and many other social media. so, students without an organization can gain more than those who participated in an organization if they have a high spirit to do self-learning and develop their capability. the accessibility of sdgs information had an effect on the student’s knowledge, based on the chi-square analysis with x2 = 34.188 and p-value < 0.05. students who had high accessibility of information tended to gain higher knowledge of sdgs. in this disruptive era, we can access much information free, anywhere and anytime we need it. most of the students in this study who are categorized as a millennial group are able to access the sdgs information through social media such as instagram, twitter, and youtube for the visualize information. nevertheless, most of the students are still lack access to the sdgs official website; it is not because they do not have any internet connection, but they prefer to gain information from the media which is used by them more often. only, when they need the full information of sdgs, they will access the website. promoting the accessibility of information is also one of the most significant commitment in sdgs, which is the concern of the goal number sixteen “promote peaceful and inclusive communities for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, jati, darsono, hermawan, yudhi, & rahman awareness and knowledge assessment of sustainable development goals… jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 171 accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels” (united nations development group, 2015). this research found that university students had awareness on sustainable development goals with 89.5%. this high level of awareness was a good condition for students to contribute to achieving sdgs. it is related to the survey from globescan (2016) that showed the awareness of indonesia on sdgs were higher than awareness on mdgs around 39% and 10%, respectively. the effect of gender, participation in an organization, and accessibility of sdgs information on awareness were analyzed by chi-square. the result showed that participation in an organization did not have any relationship with the awareness of sdgs among the students. similar to the result of knowledge of sdgs, students who do not participate in any organization might be aware since they can still receive information through media, especially the online ones. they might know the information from either formal classes or lectures, as well. this finding also implied that the study related to sdgs was not really emphasized through the activities of student organizations inside the campus. meanwhile, based on this research, gender had affected the awareness of students on sdgs slightly. it showed that female students had higher awareness such as 5.5% than male students. the previous studies by shehu et al. (2018) and omisore et al. (2017), differently, found with their female respondents being less aware of sdgs compared to the males. the different socio-demographic grounds and cultural expectations of gender roles might cause this inversed findings. our finding that women whose higher awareness because it has been portrayed and substantiated stereotypically that women are more nurturing and empathetic, whereas men are less emotional and more cognitive (christovmoore, simpson, coudé, grigaityte, iacoboni, & ferrari, 2014). awareness on sdgs includes both self and social awareness for which empathy is conflated inherently to understand and respond to the need of others. studies in economics and medical also considered empathy’s effect on decision making (beadle, paradiso, kovach, polgreen, denburg, & tranel, 2012; loewenstein, 2005). the probability of independence between the accessibility to sdgs information with the level of awareness, as what we expected, was clearly rejected with the chi-square test result. the accessibility of sdgs information affected the student’s awareness of sdgs significantly with x2 = 13.917 and p-value < 0.05. students with a high level of accessibility tend to be more aware of sdgs. in other words, having time to find out about sdgs through social media, news, report, or course materials was associated significantly with the students to have more awareness. the higher access they get, the better awareness they have. furthermore, a condition of being aware of sdgs will consequently help the students to have better knowledge afterward. this research has found that the accessibility of sdgs information significantly affected the level of both knowledge and awareness among university students. the main idea for this finding can be stated that accessible information of sdgs is a crucial driving force behind the implementation of what is designed in sustainable development goals and targets. students who already received any form of enlighentment on sdgs would own a jati, darsono, hermawan, yudhi, & rahman awareness and knowledge assessment of sustainable development goals… jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 172 bigger chance as well as responsibility to support their societies or at least to start improving from themselves. in this research, we found that more than half of the respondents have access to sdgs information because they see the campaign on youtube or any social media platforms. these online instruments, in any case, are more affordable, reachable, and also preferable for the young generation to seek worldwide issues. it is, therefore indisputable to say that campaign and promotion through online media have been playing a big role in bringing students’ knowledge and awareness forward. students’ participation in an organization, however, has been found to be insignificant to both knowledge and awareness level. the results tell that not participating in an organization did not yield to the condition of being a lack of global issues. nevertheless, it could not be translated right away that joining the organization on the campus is less useful to build up awareness and knowledge, inasmuch as the point here is the student’s individual effort and willingness to be open-minded to what is going on now in the world. moreover, it invites a suggestion for campus organizations to start adopting and adjusting their own goals to the framework of sustainable development goals or any other global issues. it is compulsory to relate these goals with organizational patterns and challenges since it is what has been expected from the inevitable adjustment of the disruptive era. further, those who belong to university students’ associations are said to be in an advantageous position since they are the representatives of university students as a whole. they are taking the special role of the agent of changes within organizational structures in which attitudes and actions are the outcomes of good awareness and knowledge. in addition, both awareness and knowledge are supposed to be attainable by students from any organizational backgrounds as well as those who do not belong to any, since what is expected from the 6th target of the goal number four that it should “ensure that all youth and a substantial proportion of adults, both men and women, achieve literacy and numeracy.” unlike student’s participation in organization and accessibility to information that give unchanging effect towards both knowledge and awareness of sdgs, gender has a different relationship with knowledge and awareness. based on chi-square analysis, gender does affect awareness significantly yet does not have any influences on the level of knowledge. female students are more aware than male students, however, both are able to attain the indifferent knowledge regardless of their gender. this is explicable in terms of defining the level of awareness and knowledge differently. we have mentioned awareness with its position as the level of understanding and consciousness (dourish & bellotti, 1992; gafoor, 2012). while, knowledge is on the upper level or stronger position; not only being aware but also having more cognition, deliberately, and well-informed. many studies in ethology, social psychology, economics, and neuroscience have been investigating the relationship between gender, brain, and behavior. christov-moore et al. (2014) asserted that females exhibit higher rates than males in various rudimentary forms of empathy, including social referencing, general social interest, and sensitivity. on the other hand, males appear to show more utilitarian behavior as well as greater recruitment of areas involved in cognitive control and cognition. in brief, women tend to have more emotional empathy, while men’s are cognitive empathy. cognitive empathy activates areas involved in language and processing of semantic content, meaning stronger than jati, darsono, hermawan, yudhi, & rahman awareness and knowledge assessment of sustainable development goals… jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 173 emotional empathy does (nummenmaa, hirvonen, parkkola, & hietanen 2008; benelli et al., 2012; and thomas, 2013). conclusion sustainable development goals (sdgs), also known as agenda 2030, strive to form sustainable people and planet, and the implementation needs to be started first from the educational system that has a crucial role in educating students as the agent of changes among society. the assessments of awareness and knowledge about sustainable development goals among university students are analyzed by using questionnaires regarding the information about sdgs to collect the answers from students and measure how many questions are solved correctly. this research examines the number of students at universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta who are aware and not aware about sdgs and who have high and poor knowledge of sdgs and then make group of them based on gender, participation in organization, and accessibility of sdgs information to analyze whether or not those have relationship with students’ awareness and knowledge on sdgs. the finding shows that students’ awareness and knowledge at the faculty of economics and business, universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta, are good because more than half of the total students engaged in this research are aware and have high knowledge about sdgs matters. from 200 students, 89.5% of students have an awareness and 62.5% of students have high knowledge about the sustainable development goals agenda. these results lead to the inference that students in universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta are the good agent of changes for implementing awareness and knowledge of sdgs in a broader community and also encouraging society to take part in succeeding 2030 agenda. this research also figures out several variables that affect students’ awareness and knowledge of sdgs. firstly, gender affects students’ awareness since it is found that females are more aware of sdgs rather than males, however, it has no effects on their knowledge concerning sustainable development goals. secondly, accessibility to sdgs’ information significantly affects both awareness and knowledge. students whose high access tend to be more aware and have high knowledge of sdgs. lastly, participation in students organization, on the other hand, does not have a relationship with awareness nor knowledge on sdgs since some students could be enlightened by the sdgs contents as long as they are willing to do self-learning and develop new insight from worldwide issues. these results are important to reassert students’ positions, status, and roles in contributing themselves to sdgs enforcement. after all, there are several limitations. in this current research, the assessment is made based upon students’ awareness and knowledge only for sustainable development goals in terms of general information about that agenda. it does not include the more specific and itemized assessment for each goal andtarget in sdgs or which targets have more urgency and influential to the realm of university students. considering detailed aspects to be assessed and to put in the research would be superior in resulting loaded findings. this could be a takeaway for future studies. due to the limitation of methodology, this jati, darsono, hermawan, yudhi, & rahman awareness and knowledge assessment of sustainable development goals… jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 2, oktober 2019 | 174 research is only able to determine the probability that the two variables are related by using the chi-square test, but unable to tell their interaction in more detail. another matter is the limited sample size of this research. it is suggested to widen the sample size for further studies. references abhary, k., andriansen, h. k., begovac, f., djukic, d., qin, b., spuzic, s., & xing, k. 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(2020). the effect of external and internal factors on financial performance of islamic banking. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 21(1), 137145. article history received: 20 january 2020 reviewed: 26 april 2020 revised: 27 april 2020 accepted: 28 april 2020 mailto:mochammad.fahlevi@binus.ac.id http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/8047 http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp istan & fahlevi the effect of external and internal factors on financial performance of islamic banking jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 138 are not allowed to conduct business activities-based profit sharing "(article 6), the way for sharia banking operations is broader. at present the culmination point has been reached with the passage of law no.21 of 2008 about sharia bank regulating the system of sharia banks. to assess the development of sharia banks from year to year, several standards are usually used, including: [1] amount of assets, [2] third-party funds, and [3] bank financing. at present, there are 11 sharia commercial banks in indonesia. according to the bank's published financial report issued by bank indonesia, as of september 31, 2013, the assets of sharia commercial banks reached idr 196.922 trillion. the funds raised by sharia banks will certainly increase, considering that the ministry of religion currently entrusts the management of the hajj funds to the appointed sharia banks. the limited involvement of government funds in the sharia banking industry has been proposed by ariff and ramadili mohd (1998). ismail (2011) tends to categorise sharia banking in indonesia as informal arrangements. the intention is that sharia banking comes from the demand of the downstream. this situation is certainly related to the government's strong commitment to fight for sharia banking. furthermore, because the last one, according to ismail (2011) is the limited number of unattainable sharia banking networks and insufficient socialisation of the banks. one more reason for the few sharia banking markets share in indonesia is the role of ulama and islamic organisations in indonesia. according to yunus (2008), in his empirical study in pekanbaru found that the indonesian islamic scholar council (mui) affected the development and dissemination of sharia banking. as also found in the quantitative study carried out by kurniawan (2010), it shows that the ratio of sharia banking financial performance rate is improving with the existence of the mui fatwa in 2004 concerning bank interest prohibition laws. the results of this study also indicate a different of the sharia banking financial performance before and after the mui fatwa regarding bank interest. however, according to abduh and omar (2010) the impact is not so significant on the addition of consumers, namely those who move their money to sharia banks, the amount is not comparable to those who do not move their money. wahyuni (2009) further stated that the mui fatwa was "only" able to increase third-party funds by as much as 25% from the previous one and did not have significant implications for the total addition of total sharia banking assets. a part from the slight impact of the role of the ulama and religious unity he still gives effect. macroeconomic indicators play an important role in stabilising economy. a stable economy can be seen from the results of profits or profitability of banking financial institutions. one macroeconomic indicator which can be used to see the economic stability of a country is inflation because changes in this indicator will have a direct impact on the dynamics of economic growth. inflation is one of the macroeconomic variables. the occurrence of inflation will affect the amount of money circulating and is also the monetary policy that the government does through central bank. the money circulating will be controlled by the government in a way that affects the process of making money. istan & fahlevi the effect of external and internal factors on financial performance of islamic banking jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 139 liquidity ratio as the proxy for financing to deposit ratio (fdr) is used as a variable that might affect roa. there is a conflict of interest between liquidity and profitability. if you want to maintain a liquidity position with enlarge cash reserves, the bank will not use all loanable funds that exist because in part returned in the form cash reserve; this means efforts to achieve profitability will reduce. conversely if the bank wants to enhance profitability, then with cash reserve for used liquidity by the bank's business so that the position liquidity will go down (muchdarsyah, 2000). if this ratio increases within the limit certain funds will increase, which is distributed in the form financing, so it will increase bank profits, assuming the bank distributes funds for effective financing. with increase in profits, then return on assets (roa) will also increase, because profit is a component forming return on asset. oer is a ratio that shows the ability of the bank to run its operations efficient. the theory explains that the relationship between eor and roa is inversely proportional. number the standard for oer ratio is below 90% (pbi), if the oer ratio more than one bank produces 90%, it can be concluded that the bank is not inefficient operate it. if ratio oer is in a condition of efficiency, profit the greater will be obtained because operating costs are borne by the bank getting smaller. with increasing profit, it can be ascertained that roa can increase. the research done by mawardi (2005), concluded that oer negative effect on performance bank that is proxied by roa. in the last four decades, a lot of research has been conducted to test the determinants of the conventional bank's financial performance rate. the research was first done by hester and zoellner (1966) then further research was conducted by bourke (1989); molyneux and thornton (1992); short (1979); steinherr and huveneers (1994). even if viewed from the aspect of asset development, capital and sharia banking institutions show positive developments. even the average growth of sharia banking so far (47%), is higher than the average growth of conventional banking, which is only around 15-20% per year. however, when viewed from the overall market share, the overall sharia banking is still too small compared to conventional banking. after two decades of sharia banking operating in indonesia, the market share is only 3.2% of the total market share of the national banking industry. the reality, as above is termed by adnan (2010) that the control of public funds by sharia banking is still low. this situation, similarly, means that sharia economics is still in the stage of opinion, where the evidence is only about 3% of sharia banking takes an economic role in indonesia. this number is very small, and it does not fit for indonesia, which dominates its population to be muslim (amin, 2010). this situation is, of course rather disappointing as rais (2008) stated that the small market share is caused by limited funds both in terms of capital and the number of public funds collected. the small amount of public funds in sharia banking has implications for the small share of the sharia banking market. this situation finally embodies the issues related to consumer uncertainty and the issue of muslim consumer compliance with sharia banking. istan & fahlevi the effect of external and internal factors on financial performance of islamic banking jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 140 research on the sharia bank financial performance level was first conducted by haron (1996), then similar research was conducted by ahmad and safwan (2011); akhtar, ali, and sadaqat (2011). macroeconomic factors and internal factors are variables that affect sharia banking. these factors are gdp, inflation, and interest rates, fdr, oer, which can affect directly or indirectly, the financial performance of sharia banks in indonesia. the novelty of this study is to combine the two factors, namely external and internal effects on the financial performance of islamic banks in indonesia. this research has an important contribution to islamic banks in indonesia, that is, knowing the impact of macroeconomic changes as external factors and the impact of internal factors, specifically the influence of operational and fdr on the financial performance of islamic banks in indonesia. the results of this study can be used by management to develop strategies as a mitigation measure to reduce risk caused by the influence of external and internal factors in islamic banks in indonesia. research method this research uses quantitative descriptive research. descriptive method is a method based on analysis by describing factors related to the problem that are intended as support for quantitative method analysis. while the quantitative method is research conducted to find various variables that are the object of research. while the estuary of this research is library research. the object of this research is the level of the financial performance of sharia banks, which are affected by macroeconomic factors and internal factors. to study and verify the impact of the macroeconomic factors and internal factors on islamic commercial banks in indonesia. the sample in this study was chosen according to its characteristics using a purposive sampling method. the purposive sampling method is a method of determining the sample based on certain criteria. the criteria used in this study are: (1) banks included in sharia commercial banks, (2) the bank operates and issues quarterly financial reports during the study period, first quarter 2013 to third quarter 2017. (3) dual banking system or full pledge system. table 1 research variables research variables variables source dependent variable return on investment (roa) quarterly islamic banking financial statements independent variables gross domestic product (gdp) national central statistics agency data report inflation indonesian monetary policy report bank indonesia interest rate indonesian monetary policy report bank indonesia financial to deposit ratio quarterly islamic banking financial statements operational efficiency ratio quarterly islamic banking financial statements source: author, 2020 istan & fahlevi the effect of external and internal factors on financial performance of islamic banking jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 141 linear regression is a statistical tool used to determine the effect of one or several variables on one variable. variables that effect are often called independent variables, independent variables or explanatory variables. the variable that is affected is often called the dependent variable or dependent variable. result and discussion in this section, the results of the analysis of multiple linear regression and the discussion and discussion will be discussed. the researcher has formulated the regression which is as follow. roai,t= b0 + b1gdpi,t + b2infi,t + b3 iri,t+ b4 fdri,t+ b5 oeri,t+ e table 2 coefficients model unstandardized coefficients sig. b std. error (constant) -6.774 6.236 .280 inflation -.011 .016 .479 interest .023 .024 .341 fdr .001 .003 .640 oer -.092 .005 .000 ln_gdp 1.082 .430 .014 source: author, 2018 the coefficient table presents information consisting of the names of variables, the value of constant (constant), the value of t and the value of significance. whereas the beta value on the standardised coefficient does not need to be discussed here because the value will be useful if you do path analysis now the researcher is not analysing the path. in the table above we can observe that gdp has a sig value of 0.014. this value is smaller than 0.05, or value of 0.014 <0.05, then hypothesis 1 can be accepted, namely that gdp has a significant positive effect, as well as the oer variable has a sig value of 0,000. so, it can be concluded that hypothesis 5 is accepted; from this information, it can be concluded that the oer variable has a negative and significant effect. from the data in the table above we can make the regression formula equation as follows: roai,t=(6.774) + 1.082 gdp– 0,092 oer gross domestic product (gdp) are defined as one of the macroeconomic indicators the mostly used to computed total economic activity, which can influencing various factors both in the demand and supply of service banking. ramadan, kilani, and kaddumi (2011) have concluded that there is a relationship positive between gdp and bank profitability. the impact of the socialisation of innovation will increase a country's income by suppressing funds abroad, in the sense of royalty payments on licensed technology. istan & fahlevi the effect of external and internal factors on financial performance of islamic banking jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 142 intellectual property assets such as patents for inventors, the right to duplicate for authors, composers, or mineral resources (oil, gas, metal materials and other mines). for this reason, efforts are needed to support the acceleration of development through the development of innovations in various fields. oer, according to the financial dictionary is a ratio group that measures operational efficiency and effectiveness companies with comparing lines one against the other. various numbers income and expenditure from the reported profit and loss to numbers on the balance sheet. operational efficiency ratio (oer), provides a comparison between operating expense and operating income. with a bigger the oer, the bank's roa gets smaller, because of the profit earned by the small bank. this finding has received considerable other support by ma’isyah and mawardi (2015). islamic banks as financial intermediary institutions are expected to show better performance compared to interest-based banks. one indicator to assess bank financial performance is to see the level of profitability and the level of efficiency. the profitability measure used is return on assets (roa). roa focuses the company's ability to obtain earnings in the company's operations. the greater roa shows better financial performance, because the rate of return is greater (sahara, 2013). gdp is a macroeconomic indicator that also affects bank profitability. if gdp rises, it will be followed by an increase in public income so that the ability to save also increases. this increase in saving will affect the profitability of islamic banks (sukirno, 2003). this result is reinforced by the results of research conducted by ali et al. (2011) conducted at commercial banks and islamic banks in pakistan, where the results of his research concluded that the gross domestic product (gdp) has a significant positive relationship with the amount of savings collected by banks in pakistan. stable profitability is the goal of all companies, occurring in many cases of companies in indonesia, especially conventional companies that have a high level of volatility, causing management to manipulate earnings which is contrary to islamic principles (fahlevi, moeljadi, aisjah, & djazuli 2020). operations are one of the important things in determining the profitability of banks, especially islamic banks that are still trying to expand into the market in indonesia. the oer ratio shows the efficiency of banks in running their main business, especially loans, where credit interest is the biggest income of banks. funding management is very much needed by banks, bearing in mind the function of financing as the biggest revenue contributor for islamic banks. the smaller the oer shows the more efficient the bank is in carrying out its business activities. banks with a healthy oer ratio are less than 1, whereas banks that are less healthy have a oer ratio of more than 1. the higher the cost of bank revenue means the operational activities are more inefficient so that their income is also smaller. in other words, oer is negatively related to bank profitability. this result is supported by yuliani (2007), mawardi (2005) and azwir (2006) who state that oer has a significant negative effect on roa. istan & fahlevi the effect of external and internal factors on financial performance of islamic banking jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 143 conclusion in service providing economies, the banks play very crucial role as a financial intermediary and also considered very important for economies functions. the economic growth can also affect financial intermediation efficiency. moreover, insolvencies of bank can lead to crisis as a whole. the banking sector profitability contributes in economies and makes economies to endure negative and external financial shocks and contribute in financial system stability. for that reason, understanding of profitability determinants is crucial. this research is focusing on the relationship between external and internal factors to financial performance. gdp has a significant positive effect on roa, it is matched with haron (1996), because when inflation central bank will give policy to increase bi rate, and sharia bank is not affected by interest rate because interest is “riba” which means prohibited. therefore, in terms of macroeconomic variable, result shows that, only gdp has significant and positive effect on roa. fdr has insignificant effect on roa and the result match with muchdarsyah (2000) in relationship fdr and roa, oer has negative significant effect on roa, the result match with mawardi (2005). references abduh, m., & omar, m. a. 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(2007). hubungan efisiensi operasional dengan kinerja profitabilitas pada sektor perbankan yang go publik di bursa efek jakarta. jurnal manajemen dan bisnis sriwijaya, 5(10), 15-43. retrieved from http://repository.unsri.ac.id/20579/ yunus, m. (2008). peranan majelis ulama indonesia (mui) dalam perkembangan dan sosialisasi perbankan syariah di wilayah riau, indonesia (doctoral dissertation, jabatan syariah dan ekonomi, akademi pengajian islam, universiti malaya). retrieved from http://scholar.google.com/scholar?cluster=11839081436019878759&hl=en&oi=sch olarr http://eprints.ums.ac.id/id/eprint/3292 http://repository.unsri.ac.id/20579/ http://scholar.google.com/scholar?cluster=11839081436019878759&hl=en&oi=scholarr http://scholar.google.com/scholar?cluster=11839081436019878759&hl=en&oi=scholarr image (2).jpg image (3).jpg image (4).jpg image (5).jpg image (6).jpg image (7).jpg image (8).jpg image (9).jpg image (10).jpg jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 22 nomor 1, april 2021 article type: research paper tax revenue diversification in indonesia jefrio martiyus1* abstract: state finances are a vital issue that is still being debated among scholars. this paper focuses on revenue diversification issues affecting the variables in this study, discussed by deborah a carrol in the usa. some researchers believe that revenue diversification is an alternative path to stabilize state accounts in a crisis. furthermore, diversification can also capture policy reactions to political and economic constraints. using panel data analysis, it was found that four significant variables affected the tax revenue diversification, including average monthly salaries, per capita expenditure, homeownership, and the gini ratio. this study uncovered that indonesia's tax revenue sources were not diverse, with more than 47 percent coming from income taxes. in theory, this condition should get more attention from the government because the more diverse the revenue, the more stable the government account becomes. keywords: revenue diversification; tax structure; hhi index jel classification: h20, h71, r51 introduction the financial situation in central and local government has been a notable issue among researchers, economists, and government administrators worldwide. these issues have become necessary since the great depression in 1970 and the economic downfall in 1980. the economic downturn is not easy, particularly for the regional budget due to budget balance specifications. the great depression affected state revenue, which caused the budget crisis. since the crisis arose, many taxpayers failed to fulfill their obligation to pay taxes. this situation creates more burden on the government's budget as taxes are the biggest revenue sources for the government's income. in response to past fiscal crises, public managers believe that diversity in revenue structure is one source for state revenue. there is one procedure to stabilize the revenue during fluctuated economic cases, which is revenue diversification. this diversification is similar to investment portfolios. it can reduce the revenue’s fluctuation, which is correlated with single-source revenue. countries with more diversified revenue systems are proposed to be more resistant than countries with less diversified revenue systems. many scholars have studied the structure of local government revenue and fiscal decision-making in previous research. the revenue diversification problem has received more attention in regional and affiliation: 1 magister of applied economics, faculty of economic and business, universitas padjadjaran, west java, indonesia *correspondence: jefrio18001@mail.unpad.ac.id this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v22i1.7523 citation: martiyus, j. (2021). tax revenue diversification in indonesia. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 22(1), 48-58. article history received: 18 nov 2019 revised: 25 aug 2020 09 sep 2020 accepted: 13 dec 2020 http://met.feb.unpad.ac.id/wrev/ http://met.feb.unpad.ac.id/wrev/ http://met.feb.unpad.ac.id/wrev/ http://met.feb.unpad.ac.id/wrev/ mailto:jefrio18001@mail.unpad.ac.id http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/7523 https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v22i1.7523&domain=pdf martiyus tax revenue diversification in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 49 central government since the 1960s and 1970s due to response to fiscal crises in large cities and the tax rebellion (ulbrich, 1991; zorn, 1991). further, joyce and mullins (1991) saw that all of those problems stem from the civilian's negative perception that the government has been grown out of the box from what they want. as a result of these crises, central and regional governments should find another way to support public services. thus, revenue diversification potentially becomes an essential device for central and regional governments to maintain their steps and prepare themselves for economic crises and fiscal pressure. ulbrich (1991) studied the advantages of revenue diversification. he argued that there are three advantages of diversified revenue. first, it promotes equity by capturing revenues from individuals who can evade some taxes but not others. second, it stimulates efficiency by reducing the distortion of economic decisions that are overly reliant on one revenue source. third, it maintains a lower tax rate. other studies that agree with ulbrich (1991) and follow his study are park and park (2018); chernick, langley, and reschovsky (2011); and yan (2008). contrary to ulbrich (1991); ladd and weist (1987) disagreed with the statement above that the balance revenue system is not sufficient, efficient, and equitable. they suggested that the tax system may not be more diversified but reflects the importance of policy goals. moreover, kilby (2014) explained that diversification's positive effect should be equidistant with fiscal policies. sarkar (2016) examined revenue diversification in banks and found that increasing income diversification would increase institutional risk, resulting in increased inefficiency. dye (1966) saw the effect of revenue diversification through socioeconomic variables. he said that socioeconomic variables influenced local revenue. bingham (1978) found that the number of revenue types is the most potent single variable that influences tax concentration. jung (2002) also agreed with both arguments. he studied economic activity and concluded that economic activity is a substantial factor in deciding the state revenue structure. in the political view, nice (1987) concluded that many political parties would create more progressive revenue structures. these arguments align with pajari's (2008) study in georgia, which found that the probability of adopting local optimal sales taxes (lost) had a positive association with property value, income, and taxable sales. heyndels and vuchelen (1998) conducted a tax rate analysis in 589 cities in belgium. they found that property tax and income tax rates between close neighbors were the same as reduced intensity according to geographical distance. in indonesia, income diversification research is still limited. most of the studies focus on revenue diversification in financial institutions (banks) and non-profit institutions, while there is still no discussion of revenue diversification in government finances. researches on taxes as a source of state income in indonesia mostly focuse on one type tax, as was done by mardiana and prawoto (2016) and yudisyus (2013) who examined the factors martiyus tax revenue diversification in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 50 that influence the amount of advertisement tax revenue. setiyono, maramis, and setianto (2019) examined the effect of diversification of bank income and its relation to bank stability in banks listed on the financial service authority and the indonesia stock exchange from 2008-2017. they uncovered that diversification would strengthen bank stability. following setiyono et al. (2019), zulfikar and pangestuti (2018), madyan, wahyuningati, and firdausi (2018), santiyano and suk (2017), and sariartha and husnan (2015) also have the same conclusion. the diversification of the bank's income showed a good effect on reducing the risk on the bank's revenue streams. furthermore, sariartha and husnan (2015) also did not find a significant difference between small banks and large banks' efficiency due to income diversification. in brief summary, this study tried to analyze indonesia’s economic strength through its income diversification as a basis for developing economic policies to face global financial volatility. this is due to the fact that despite being one of the top 20 countries with the highest gdp globally, it does not necessarily put indonesia in a safe position during the global financial shock. this study intends to introduce the concept of income diversification as a means to support indonesia’s readiness amidst world economic fluctuation. this study investigated the value of income diversification practice in indonesia for financial stability and explored the main factors in formulating proper and efficient fiscal policy. since this subject is rarely discussed by the economic scholar in indonesia, the concept of income diversification is the novelty offered by this study to enrich the study on state financial stability according to previous studies, many variables affect revenue diversification. this study adopted some variables explained by carroll (2005), who classified them into three main variables (economic, political, and demographical), with each variable represented by some derivative indicators. this paper aims to see the effect of economic, demographic, and political variables on indonesia's tax revenue diversification. the data were collected from statistics indonesiabadan pusat statistik (bps) from 2015-2019. then, it used two stages of time-series crosssectional panel data regression to estimate the dependent variable. this paper is divided into several chapters: methodology, empirical results, a discussion, and a conclusion. research method in this study, the data were collected from the thirty-four provinces in indonesia from 2015-2019. then, it employed two-stage time-series cross-sectional regression to estimates revenue diversification. in the first stage, the diversification was measured based on hhi index (misiolek & elder, 1988; turnbull, 1998; wagner, 1976). this study utilized the method of integrating the seven tax revenue categories in indonesia. then, the concentration ratio was also measured for the big four tax sources (cr4). thus, tax revenue diversification was calculated as the following: martiyus tax revenue diversification in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 51 𝑅𝐷 = 1 − ∑ 𝑅𝑖 25 𝑖=1 0.8 where, ri is the fraction of tax revenue. this measure implies that the higher rd values, the higher diversification levels among tax structures. then, in the second stage, the numerous factors influencing this revenue diversification were measured using eight independent variables representing three leading indicators (economic, political, and demographic). the hhi index obtained was from the first stage and acted as the dependent variable. the second stage to determine the numerous factors influencing the level of state tax revenue diversification was following by carroll (2005): 𝐻𝐻𝐼𝑖𝑡 = ∝ + 𝐸𝑖𝑡 𝛽1 + 𝑃𝑖𝑡 𝛽2 + 𝐷𝑖𝑡 𝛽3 + 𝐶𝑖𝑡 𝛽4 + 𝜀𝑖𝑡 where, e is matrices of economic, p is for political, d is for demographic, respectively. the dependent variable was tax revenue diversification, as measured by the hhi index. the economy's matrices were represented by two main variables: average monthly salaries and per capita expenditure. three variables represented the political matrices: civil rights rate, political rights rate, and democratic institution rights. the demographical matrices were reflected by three variables: homeownership, poverty rate, and the gini ratio. all data were collected from the bps’s publication. the description of variables is presented in table 1. table 1 description of variables variables description and data sources economic variables log average monthly salaries (x1) average of net wage per month of employee and labor constant rupiah. log per capita expenditure (x2) per capita general expenditures for every province in the year 2017 constant rupiah. political variables civil right rate (x3) the annual civil rights rate in indonesia in the year 2017 political right rate (x4) annual political right rate by bps in the year 2017 democratic institution right (x5) annual rights of the democratic institution by bps in the year 2017 demographic variables homeownership (x6) the percentage of households who have their own home population poverty rate (x7) the percentage of people in poverty using data of susenas in the first semester of 2017 gini ratio (x8) gini ratio coefficient to see the distribution of income in indonesia in the year 2017 source: statistics indonesia-badan pusat statistik (bps). it is commonly believed that economic variables play an essential role in improving the level of revenue diversification. thus, this variable is likely to be positively correlated with revenue diversification. needless to say, coefficient β_1 > 0. then, the two following martiyus tax revenue diversification in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 52 variables (political and demographical) seem to have a positive correlation with dependent variables. this argument is based on carroll's (2005) finding that both variables positively affected revenue diversification. thus, coefficients of β_2 and β_3 > 0. result and discussion table 2 provides the descriptive statistics for each dependent and independent variable included in the model. based on the theory, the hhi index's magnitude indicates the concentration level, whether monopoly or diverse. based on table 2, it could be concluded that the average hhi index value was 37.85 percent, meaning that indonesia's revenue diversification was relatively small. it indicated that the revenue source only concentrated on one or two types of tax. table 2 summary statistics of equation variables variable mean std. dev. min max revenue diversification (hhi index) 3785,33 105,55 3672,74 3945,11 average monthly salaries (log rp.) 3,41 0,11 3,17 3,67 per capita expenditure (log rp.) 4,01 0,09 3,81 4,27 civil right rate (%) 82,69 10,51 51,01 100,00 political right rate (%) 67,02 9,75 38,05 86,52 democratic institution right (%) 71,60 10,57 47,25 93,98 homeownership (%) 79,52 8,63 47,12 97,99 population poverty rate (%) 11,19 5,93 3,47 28,54 gini ratio 0,36 0,04 0,27 0,44 observation 170 170 170 170 source: data processed. table 3 illustrates the concentration ratio (cr4) index of revenue source in indonesia budgeting since 2015-2019. it shows the cr4 value has always been more than 96 percent and indicated the increasing trend. in 2015, the cr4 value was about 96 percent and increased 2 points to 98.20 percent in 2019. this finding depicted that indonesia's tax revenue source was not diverse; most of them came from income tax. moreover, the value of the hhi index presented a high result. the trend of increasing the hhi index every year also followed the upward trend in cr4. based on the hhi value, which was more than 2500, it could be denoted that most taxes in indonesia were not well diversified. one source of state revenue was still monopolized by one tax source. to select a suitable model based on the panel data's characteristics, the hausman and the likelihood ratio tests were conducted. these tests specified that the fixed effects model was appropriate. the results of panel data regression processing using stata revealed that this study's most suitable model was the fixed effect model. martiyus tax revenue diversification in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 53 table 3 source of tax, cr4 index, and hhi index of indonesia 2015-2019 source 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 income tax 48.56 51.14 47.48 49.16 50.07 value-added tax 34.16 32.08 35.78 36.47 36.69 property tax 2.36 1.51 1.25 1.13 1.07 custom tax 11.66 11.17 11.41 10.04 9.26 others tax 0.45 1.34 1.17 0.49 0.48 import tax 2.52 2.53 2.61 2.43 2.18 export tax 0.30 0.23 0.31 0.29 0.25 cr4 96.89 96.92 97.28 98.10 98.20 hhi 3,672.74 3,779.90 3,674.27 3,854.65 3,945.11 source: statistics indonesia-badan pusat statistik (bps). table 4 represents the output of the empirical estimation. column (1) reports the regression-based fixed effect without robustness standard error, while column (2) reports robustness. both columns show a consistent result based on the value of significance and coefficient. based on the output from table 4, from eight independent variables, at five percent error, only four variables were significant in the model: the average monthly salaries, per capita expenditure, homeownership, and the gini ratio. empirically, the average monthly salaries had a negative effect on the hhi value. increasing one point of wage would decrease the hhi value by 461 points. it contrasts with carroll (2005) and the size of indonesia's cr4, which is dominated by income tax. the assumption is that the greater a person's income will increase the amount of income tax so that the hhi value will be even greater. this phenomenon might occur because the variable of monthly salaries only captured taxpayers who came from the formal sector. workers who worked in the non-formal sector were likely not to be covered by tax revenue, so even though workers' average wage was higher, it did not significantly affect the addition of income tax. yan (2008) has answered this phenomenon based on his study on georgia state in 19862004. he found that personal income had a negative correlation with revenue instability. increasing income means increasing tax, and it reduces the effect of revenue risk in the georgia government. furthermore, kilby (2014) also uncovered a similar result. states with a higher income tax in the usa tended to be stable than others. furthermore, variable per capita expenditure showed a positive effect on the hhi index. increasing one point of this variable would increase 6,870 points of hhi value. this evidence can be accepted because per capita expenditure has been measured based on monthly consumption. most of these consumable goods have been subject to valueadded tax. this finding is contrary to the empirical result by carroll (2005) that found that per capita expenditure had a negative effect on revenue diversification. however, this result is parallel with the study on revenue complexity theory articulated by wagner (1976) and supported by baker (1983). furthermore, park and park (2018) also found that the economic perspective represented by per capita expenditure might be applicable for revenue diversification and public spending. martiyus tax revenue diversification in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 54 the political variable revealed an insignificant result. the rate of political, civil, and democratic institution rights that represented political variables were not significant on 1%, 5%, and 10%, respectively. this finding indicated that political structure could not be measured for fiscal choice (park & park, 2018). deno and mehay (1987) found that the government's focus was not on the political structure but other factors, such as median income. also, homeownership positively correlated with hhi value. increasing one point of homeownership would increase 12 points of hhi. the growth of homeownership would increase the value of property tax, and cr4 value would also increase. this finding is also supported by carroll's (2005) findings that homeownership positively correlated with revenue diversification. the intuition is that the increase of homeownership means increasing property tax and directly increasing the hhi index. the next variable of demographical indicators is the poverty rate. according to empirical results in this study and similar to carroll (2005), this variable was not significant. however, the gini ratio was added as a new variable to represent demographical indicators to clarify poverty's effect on revenue diversification. gini ratio gives information on the wage gap between poor and rich. this measure seems more powerful than the poverty rate because it can measure the income tax gap between two types of wage. table 4 estimation results (fixed effect regression) variables (1) (2) average monthly salaries -461.3756*** (159.6551) -461.3756*** (164.7525) per capita expenditure 6807.88*** (666.464) 6807.88*** (495.8792) civil right rate -0.2345831 (0.8945321) -0.2345831 (0.8146465) political right rate 0.4301026 (0.9600856) 0.4301026 (0.8727354) democratic institution right -0.0659418 (0.7320567) -0.0659418 (0.7150539) homeownership 12.68249** (4.048889) 12.68249* (7.232175) population poverty rate 2.26552 (12.7434) 2.26552 (9.123201) gini ratio -768.4668** (449.0866) -768.4668** (377.1306) constant -22671.55*** (2586.222) -22671.55*** (2084.033) n observation 170 170 n province 34 34 robust se no yes r-square 0.7548 0.7548 note: the dependent variable is revenue diversification (hhi index). all standard errors are reported in parentheses. * significant at 10%, ** significant at 5%, *** significant at 1% source: data processed. martiyus tax revenue diversification in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 55 this study has found generally that the gini ratio was also significant in the model. this relationship was negative. increasing one point of the gini ratio would decrease 768 points of hhi value. this evidence showed that the increasing gini ratio caused more gaps in income inequality. this fact widens the gap income among higher and lower-income wages. eventually, income tax sources are limited to those on high income because the lower-income lost their revenue source. this loss can be related to previous findings that they moved to the informal sector that could not be covered in this study. this investigation’s results disclosed that the value of r square was 0.7548. it signified that the independent variables could predict the dependent variable for 75.48 percent, and the rest was by others. the evidence in this study exposed that only two of three indicators of revenue diversification had a significant effect. meanwhile, the political indicator represented by tree variables was not significant in the model. the most significant variable affecting revenue diversification was economic variables. this finding also aligns with studies from park and park (2018) and yan (2008). conclusion revenue diversification is needed to maintain state finances' stability to faces the recession or fiscal crises and increase public expenditure. in indonesia, this study’s focus is still limited. most research only focuses on revenue diversification in non-profit institutions, banks, and income structures in the regional community. however, this research has thrown up many questions in need of further investigation. further work needs to be done to establish whether variables are fit with the indonesian condition. average monthly salaries should show a positive relationship with hhi value. however, this study revealed vice versa. increasing salaries would increase the nominal income tax. further research is needed to examine and include the average wage variable by considering informal paid workers' wages. political variables were not significant in this study. it showed that the political climate in indonesia was inconsistent with the state revenue structure. the indonesian government should concern about this problem because it relates to the stabilization of revenue diversification state budgeting. the demographic variable was represented by three variables. however, only two of them were significant in the model. the insignificance of the poverty population rate was because this rate was not powerful to determine diversification revenue. the poverty rate only captures the percentages of poor people without seeing their contribution to financial state budgeting. meanwhile, homeownership and gini ratio could directly catch society's role in the source of income tax. martiyus tax revenue diversification in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 56 this result’s finding clearly revealed that economic variables strongly influenced revenue diversification. demographical variables were significant, but it seemed not too strong to explain their relationship. nevertheless, this research also has limitations. first, the researchers only measured revenue diversification by using the hhi index, which actually can be measured through a variety of ways: tax and non-tax-revenue diversification categories used by suyderhoud (1994) and carroll (2009) and seven different categories of the government 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april 2014; disetujui: agustus 2014 abstract: the research aims to see the correlation between the open unemployment, and the economic growth, labor force, analysis, and the government spending. the research uses the secondary data from badan pusat statistik (bps) yogyakarta. the research uses panel data from 5 regions in yogyakarta. while the data analysis that is uses id the descriptive analysis, and inductive analysis. the result shows that all variables simultaneously affect the rate of open unemployment. while the economic growth, education, and government spending has the negative effect to the rate of open unemployment in yogyakarta. the labor force has positive influence and significant to the rate of open unemployment in yogyakarta. keywords: labor, unemployment; rate of economic growth; education; government spending jel classification: j01, j23, j64, r23 abstrak: studi ini bertujuan untuk melihat sejauh mana hubungan antara tingkat pengangguran terbuka dengan laju pertumbuhan ekonomi, angkatan kerja, studi dan pengeluaran pemerintah.studi ini dilakukan dengan menggunakan data sekunder yang diperoleh langsung dari badan pusat statistik daerah istimewa yogyakarta. studi ini menggunakan metode data panel yaitu kombinasi 5 kabupaten/kota di daerah istimewa yogyakarta. sedangkan analisis data yang digunakan adalah analisis deskriptif dan analisis induktif.hasil studi menunjukkan bahwa secara simultan variabel laju pertumbuhan penduduk, angkatan kerja, pendidikan dan pengeluaran pemerintah berpengaruh signifikan terhadap tingkat pengangguran terbuka.sedangkan secara partial laju pertumbuhan ekonomi, pendidikan dan pengeluaran pemerintah berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap tingkat pengangguran terbuka di daerah istimewa yogyakarta.sedangkan variabel angkatan kerja berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap tingkat pengangguran terbuka di daerah istimewa yogyakarta. kata kunci: ketenagakerjaan; pengangguran; laju pertumbuhan ekonomi; pendidikan; pengeluaran pemerintah klasifikasi jel: j01, j23, j64, r23 pendahuluan pembangunan ekonomi didefinisikan sebagai suatu proses kenaikan pendapatan per kapita masyarakat dalam suatu negara yang berlangsung dalam jangka panjang. pembangunan diartikan sebagai peningkatan produk nasional (gdp, gnp) yang disebabkan bukan saja oleh peningkatan kuantitas faktor produksi yang digunakan dalam proses produksi melainkan digunakannnya sistem dan teknologi baru (hudiyanto, 2001). menurut sukirno (1994) pembangunan adalah suatu hal yang dapat meningkatkan kualitas kehidupan dan kesejahteraan suatu negara, khususnya bagi masyarakat yang tinggal di negara tersebut. pembangunan dilakukan dalam berbagai sektor kehidupan dan melibatkan kegiatan produksi. sedangkan pembangunan ekonomi adalah suatu proses yang menyebab jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 2, oktober 2014: 171-181 172 kan pendapatan per kapita penduduk meningkat dalam jangka panjang. pembangunan ekonomi ditujukan guna meningkatkan kesejahteraan masyarakat di sisi ekonomi maupun sisi sosial. salah satu tujuan dari pembangunan ekonomi itu sendiri yaitu menciptakan kesempatan dan lapangan kerja semaksimal mungkin supaya angkatan kerja yang berada di dalam suatu negara tersebut dapat terserap dalam proses kegiatan ekonomi di negara tersebut. di lain sisi tujuan dari pembangunan ekonomi ialah terciptanya pertumbuhan serta peningkatan sumber daya manusia (sdm). indonesia merupakan salah satu negara berkembang, yang di mana dalam pengelompokan negara berdasarkan taraf kesejahteraan masyarakatnya, di mana salah satu permasalahan yang dihadapi oleh negara-negara berkembang termasuk indonesia adalah masalah pengangguran. pengangguran merupakan masalah yang sangat kompleks karena mempengaruhi sekaligus dipengaruhi oleh banyak faktor yang saling berinteraksi mengikuti pola yang tidak selalu mudah untuk dipahami. apabila pengangguran tersebut tidak segera diatasi maka dapat menimbulkan kerawanan sosial, dan berpotensi mengakibatkan kemiskinan. terjadinya pengangguran di suatu negara dapat dikarenakan jumlah lapangan pekerjaaan di suatu wilayah tertentu tidak dapat mencukupi jumlah angkatan kerja atau jumlah permintaan akan lapangan pekerjaan akan penawaran lapangan kerja tidak seimbang. hal tersebut berakibat bertambahnya jumlah pertumbuhan tenaga kerja melebihi jumlah kesempatan kerja. dalam pembangunan ekonomi negaranegara berkembang, pengangguran yang semakin bertambah jumlahnya merupakan masalah yang lebih rumit dan lebih serius dari pada masalah perubahan dalam distribusi pendapatan yang kurang menguntungkan penduduk yang berpendapatan rendah. keadaan di negara-negara berkembang dalam beberapa dasawarsa ini menunjukkan bahwa pembangunan yang telah tercipta tidak sanggup mengadakan kesempatan kerja yang lebih cepat dari pada pertambahan penduduk yang berlaku. oleh karenanya, masalah pengangguran yang mereka hadapi dari tahun ke tahun semakin lama semakin bertambah serius. lebih prihatin lagi di beberapa negara miskin bukan saja jumlah pengangguran menjadi bertambah besar, tetapi juga proporsi mereka dari keseluruhan tenaga kerja semakin bertambah tinggi. pengangguran diartikan sebagai seseorang yang tergolong dalam angkatan kerja dan secara aktif mencari pekerjaan pada suatu tingkat upah tertentu, tetapi tidak memperoleh pekerjaan yang diinginkan. banyaknya pengangguran di suatu wilayah merupakan masalah yang tidak hanya mencakup bidang perekonomian saja. di sisi lain, masalah pengangguran juga mempunyai hubungan erat dengan bidang sosial dan pendidikan. di zaman seperti sekarang bukan hanya masyarakat yang memiliki pendidikan rendah saja yang menganggur, masyarakat yang memiliki tingkat pendidikan tinggi pula juga banyak yang menganggur (sukirno, 2008). pertumbuhan ekonomi mempengaruhi tingkat pengangguran di suatu daerah. semakin tinggi pertumbuhan ekonomi di suatu daerah maka akan semakin tinggi pula kesempatan berkembang bagi perusahaan dan penciptaan kesempatan kerja bagi masyarakat daerah tertentu. di samping itu pertumbuhan ekonomi melalui pdrb yang meningkat, diharapkan dapat menyerap tenaga kerja di wilayah tersebut, karena dengan kenaikan pdrb kemungkinan dapat meningkatkan kapasitas produksi. hal tersebut mengindikasikan bahwa penurunan pdrb suatu daerah dapat dikaitkan dengan tingginya jumlah pengangguran pada daerah tersebut. angka pengangguran yang rendah dapat mencerminkan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang baik. jumlah tingkat pengangguran serta angkatan kerja menunjukkan besarnya jumlah penduduk yang harus diikutsertakan dalam proses pembangunan yang berarti bahwa tingkat pengangguran dan angkatan kerja merupakan bagian dari penduduk yang mampu menggerakkan proses ekonomi. ini menggambarkan bahwa dinamika proses pembangunan harus mampu melibatkan seluruh angkatan kerja maka jumlah angkatan kerja yang besar itu dapat menjadi beban bagi pembangunan ekonomi. di masa sekarang, pendidikan diposisikan sebagai sarana untuk peningkatan kesejahteraan melalui pemanfatan kesempatan kerja pengangguran terbuka dan determinannya (mohammad rifqi muslim) 173 yang ada dan mencerminkan tingkat kepandaian atau pencapaian pendidikan formal dari penduduk karena semakin tingginya tamatan pendidikan seseorang maka semakin tinggi pula kemampuan kerja atau produktivitas seseorang dalam bekerja. tujuan akhir program pendidikan adalah teraihnya lapangan kerja yang diharapkan. pendidikan pada diri seseorang dapat meningkatkan kemampuan dalam memperoleh dan menggunakan informasi dan memperoleh pemahaman akan perekonomian serta memberikan pilihan apakah seseorang ingin menjadi konsumen, produsen atau menjadi warga negara biasa. secara tidak langsung pendidikan juga berpengaruh dalam pemenuhan kebutuhan pribadi seseorang dengan cara meningkatkan produktivitas sehingga akan mencapai standar hidup yang lebih baik. angkatan kerja yang bekerja, modal fisik dan tanah dapat mengalami diminishing return sedangkan ilmu pengetahuan tidak bisa. jadi investasi modal manusia merupakan faktor utama dalam peningkatan produktifitas faktor produksi secara total (kuncoro, 2004). pendidikan tersebut termasuk ke dalam salah satu investasi pada bidang sumber daya manusia, yang mana investasi tersebut dinamakan dengan human capital (teori modal manusia). investasi pendidikan merupakan kegiatan yang dapat dinilai stok manusia, di mana nilai stock manusia setelah mengikuti pendidikan dengan berbagai jenis dan bentuk pendidikan diharapkan dapat meningkatkan berbagai bentuk nilai berupa peningkatan penghasilan individu, peningkatan produktivitas kerja, dan peningkatan nilai rasional (social benefit) individu dibandingkan dengan sebelum mengecap pendidikan (idris, 2007). dalam uud 1945 pasal 28c yang telah diamandemen disebutkan bahwa: “setiap orang berhak mengembangkan diri melalui pemenuhan kebutuhan dasarnya, berhak mendapatkan pendidikan dan memperoleh manfaat dari ilmu pengetahuan dan teknologi, seni dan budaya, demi meningkatkan kualitas hidupnya dan demi kesejahteraan umat manusia.” berdasarkan uu nomor 20 tahun 2004 tentang sistem pendidikan nasional ditetapkan bahwa besarnya porsi anggaran pendidikan adalah 20 persen dari total apbn. ini mengimplikasikan bahwa komitmen bangsa ini untuk menempatkan pendidikan sebagai salah satu komponen sumber daya pengetahuan, sehingga dipahami bahwa pengetahuan akan menjadi pembangkit kemajuan ekonomi. di mata penduduk berkembang, pendidikan dipandang sebagai sarana guna meningkatkan kesejahteraan melalui pemanfaatan kesempatan kerja yang ada. atau dalam kalimat lain, tujuan akhir dari program pendidikan adalah teraihnya lapangan kerja yang diharapkan. setidaknya masyarakat yang telah mengenyam pendidikan setelah selesai mereka mendapatkan pekerjaan yang lebih berkelas di sektor formal. tingkat pendidikan berpengaruh terhadap pekerjaan yang mereka dapatkan kelak. semakin lama jangka waktu yang masyarakat habiskan untuk mendapatkan pendidikan maka semakin tinggi atau bermartabat pula pekerjaan yang mereka dapatkan dan semakin terhindar mereka dari masalah pengangguran. menurut pendapat keynes dalam sukirno (2008) bahwa peranan atau campur tangan pemerintah masih sangat diperlukan yaitu apabila perekonomian sepenuhnya diatur olah kegiatan di pasar bebas, bukan saja perekonomian tidak selalu mencapai tingkat kesempatan kerja penuh tetapi juga kestabilan kegiatan ekonomi tidak dapat diwujudkan. akan tetapi fluktuasi kegiatan ekonomi yang lebar dari satu periode ke periode lainnya dan ini akan menimbulkan implikasi yang serius kepada kesempatan kerja dan pengangguran dan tingkat harga. keynes juga berpendapat bahwa dalam sistem pasar bebas penggunaan tenaga kerja penuh tidak selalu tercipta sehingga perlu dilakukan usaha dan kebijakan pemerintah untuk menciptakan penggunaan tenaga kerja penuh dan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang teguh (sukirno, 2008). salah satu bentuk campur tangan yang dapat dilakukan adalah dengan menjalankan kebijakan fiskal. dalam hal ini keynes mengisyaratkan kebijakan fiskal yang ekspansif melalui pengurangan pajak dan penambahan pengeluaran pemerintah (government expenditure). jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 2, oktober 2014: 171-181 174 berdasarkan tabel 1 dapat diketahui secara umum jumlah penganggur pada tahun 2012 di semua provinsi di pulau jawa kecuali daerah istimewa yogyakarta menurun jika dibandingkan dengan tahun 2011. penurunan tertinggi terjadi pada provinsi banten yaitu 23,79. di antara enam provinsi yang terletak di pulau jawa, jumlah angkatan kerja terbanyak pada tahun 2012 yaitu provinsi jawa barat (20.150 orang) diikuti provinsi jawa tengah (17.091 orang). jika dibandingkan dengan tahun 2011, selain provinsi banten semua provinsi bertambah jumlah angkatan kerja pada tahun 2012. dari total angkatan kerja, jumlah yang bekerja paling banyak adalah provinsi jawa timur dan terendah adalah daerah istimewa yogyakarta. pada tahun 2012, provinsi dengan tpt terendah di pulau jawa adalah daerah istimewa yogyakarta (3,97%) dan yang tertinggi adalah provinsi banten (10,13%). dilihat dari perkembangan tpt dai tahun 2011 dan 2012, tampak bahwa daerah istimewa yogyakarta, jawa tengah dan jawa timur, nilai tpt yang dimiliki ketiga provinsi tersebut selalu lebih rendah dari angka nasional, sedangkan provinsi lainnya selalu jauh lebih tinggi. daerah istimewa yogyakarta adalah daerah istimewa setingkat provinsi di indonesia yang merupakan peleburan negara kesultanan yogyakarta dan negara kadipaten paku alaman. daerah istimewa yogyakarta terdiri atas satu kota dan empat kabupaten, yang terbagi lagi menjadi 78 kecamatan dan 438 desa/kelurahan. menurut sensus penduduk 2012, daerah istimewa yogyakarta memiliki jumlah penduduk 3.514.764 jiwa dengan tingkat pengangguran terbuka 3,97%. angkatan kerja di daerah istimewa yogyakarta pada tahun 2012 sebesar 1.944.858 penduduk atau 55,33% dari total jumlah penduduk daerah istimewa yogyakarta. sejak tahun 2007 hingga akhir 2012 terjadi peningkatan indeks pendidikan yang signifikan di daerah istimewa yogyakarta. peningkatan indeks pendidikan tersebut mempunyai arti bahwa penduduk di daerah istimewa yogyakarta dari tahun ke tahun mempunyai rata-rata lama sekolah yang tiap tahun semakin bertambah serta berkurangnya tingkat buta huruf berbeda penduduk di daerah tersebut. berbeda dari indeks pendidikan, laju pertumbuhan ekonomi di daerah istimewa yogyakarta mengalami fluktuasi dari tahun ke tahun yaitu 3,95% pada tahun 2008, meningkat menjadi tabel 1. penduduk yang termasuk angkatan kerja, bekerja, dan tingkat pengangguran terbuka (tpt) menurut provinsi di pulau jawa,2011-2012 (ribuan) provinsi angkatan kerja bekerja tpt (%) 2011 2012 2011 2012 2011 2012 dki jakarta 5.144 5.369 4.588 4.839 10,8 9,87 jawa barat 19.357 20.150 17.455 18.321 9,83 9,08 jawa tengah 16.919 17.091 15.916 16130 5,93 5,63 diy 1.873 1.945 1.799 1.868 3,97 3,97 jawa timur 19.762 19.891 18.940 19.072 4,16 4,12 banten 5.210 5.125 4.530 4.606 13,06 10,13 nasional 117.370 118.039 109.670 110.795 6,56 6,14 sumber: berita resmi statistik (data diolah) tabel 2. perkembangan laju pertumbuhan ekonomi, dan indeks pendidikan di daerah istimewa yogyakarta tahun lpe (%) pendidikan (indeks) 2007 3,40 80,01 2008 3,95 80,34 2009 7,15 80,80 2010 3,68 81,58 2011 4,33 82,19 2012 4,43 82,51 sumber:badan pusat statistik, 2013 pengangguran terbuka dan determinannya (mohammad rifqi muslim) 175 7,15% pada tahun 2009, menurun lagi menjadi 3,68 pada tahun 2010 dan meningkat kembali menjadi 4,33%. laju pertumbuhan ekonomi tertinggi diy selama periode 2007-2012 terjadi pada tahun 2009, di mana persentase laju pertumbuhan ekonomi sebesar 7,15% dan mengalami persentase terendah sebesar 3,4% pada tahun 2007. studi-studi sebelumnya terkait pengangguran, di antaranya farid (2010) telah menemukan adanya jumlah angkatan kerja di indonesia yang meningkat selama periode 1980-2007. tetapi peningkatan yang terjadi tidak diimbangi dengan perluasan lapangan kerja atau kapasitas produksi. hal itu mengakibatkan jumlah pengangguran yang meningkat yang menjadikan masalah yang sangat serius kepada negara, karena jumlah pengangguran merupakan indikator kemajuan ekonomi suatu negara. berdasarkan analisis yang dilakukan menunjukkan bahwa jumlah penduduk, upah, dan pertumbuhan ekonomi memiliki hubungan yang positif dan kecenderungan kuat terhadap pengangguran. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa peningkatan populasi dan angkatan kerja, upah, dan pertumbuhan ekonomi sejalan dengan peningkatan jumlah pengangguran. sementara tingkat inflasi memiliki hubungan positif yang lemah, yang berarti bahwa tingkat inflasi tidak memiliki hubungan terhadap jumlah pengangguran. analisis kurva phillips menggambarkan hubungan antara inflasi dengan tingkat pengangguran tidak cocok diterapkan di indonesia. hal ini disebabkan inflasi di indonesia dipengaruhi oleh kenaikan barang-barang, dan bukan karena peningkatan permintaan kenaikan upah yang tinggi. studi sirait dan marhaeni (2013) menemukan bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi, upah minimum regional dan tingkat pendidikan berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap jumlah pengangguran kabupaten/kota di provinsi bali. hasil studi tersebut diperoleh bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi berpengaruh positif nyata, upah minimum regional berpengaruh negatif nyata terhadap jumlah pengangguran kabupaten/kota di provinsi bali, sedangkan tingkat pendidikan negatif tidak nyata, dan pertumbuhan ekonomi memiliki pengaruh yang paling dominan terhadap jumlah pengangguran kabupaten/kota di provinsi bali. pitartono dan hayati (2012), dalam studinya mengenai tingkat pengangguran di jawa tengah tahun 19972010 mengungkapkan tingkat pengangguran di jawa tengah telah berfluktuasi dari tahun ke tahun dari tahun 1997 sampai 2010. dengan tingkat pengangguran tertinggi sebesar 7,70% pada tahun 2007. sementara pada tahun 2001 tingkat pengangguran berada pada titik terendah yaitu sebesar 3,70%. hasil studi menunjukkan semakin tinggi populasi, dan semakin besar upah minimum kabupaten/kota akan memberikan pengaruh positif dan signifikan terkait dengan tingkat pengangguran di jawa tengah. tingkat inflasi dan variabel tingkat pertumbuhan pdb memiliki hubungan negatif dan signifikan dengan tingkat pengangguran di jawa tengah. metode penelitian jenis dan sumber data studi ini menggunakan data sekunder berupa data time series dan cross section dalam bentuk data tahunan selama periode tahun 2007 sampai dengan 2012. data dalam studi ini diperoleh dari badan pusat statistik (bps) daerah istimewa yogyakarta serta sumber lain yang terkait dengan studi ini. alat analisis metode analisis regresi data panel dipilih penulis dalam menganalisis data pada studi ini. analisis regresi data panel digunakan untuk melihat sejauh mana pengaruh variabel-variabel bebas yang digunakan dalam meneliti tingkat pengangguran terbuka yang ada di daerah istimewa yogyakarta. data panel (pooled data) diperoleh dengan cara menggabungkan data time series dengan cross section. analisis regresi dengan data panel (pooled data) memungkinkan peneliti mengetahui karakteristik antarwaktu dan antarindividu dalam variabel yang bisa saja berbeda-beda. metode data panel merupakan suatu metode yang digunakan untuk melakukan analisis empirik dengan perilaku data yang lebih dinamis. adapun kelebihan yang diperoleh dari penggunaan data panel adalah sebagai berikut (gujarati, 2004): 1) data panel mampu menyediakan lebih banyak data, sehingga dapat memberikan infor jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 2, oktober 2014: 171-181 176 masi yang lebih lengkap. sehingga diperoleh degree of freedom (df) yang lebih besar sehingga estimasi yang dihasilkan lebih baik; 2) data panel mampu mengurangi kolinieritas variabel; 3) dapat menguji dan membangun model perilaku yang lebih kompleks; 4) dengan menggabungkan informasi dari data time series dan cross section dapat mengatasi masalah yang timbul karena adanya masalah penghilangan variabel (ommited variable); 5) data panel lebih mampu mendeteksi dan mengukur efek yang secara sederhana tidak mampu dilakukan oleh data time series murni maupu cross section murni; 6) data panel dapat meminimalkan bias yang dihasilkan oleh agregat individu, karena data yang diobservasi lebih banyak. ada tiga metode yang digunakan untuk data panel (ajija, 2011): 1) model pooled least square (common effect) model ini dikenal dengan estimasi common effect yaitu teknik regresi yang paling sederhana untuk mengestimasi data panel dengan cara hanya mengkombinasikan data time series dan cross section. model ini hanya menggabungkan data tersebut tanpa melihat perbedaan antarwaktu dan individu sehingga dapat dikatakan bahwa model ini sama halnya dengan metode ordinary least square (ols) karena menggunakan kuadrat terkecil biasa. dalam pendekatan ini hanya mengasumsikan bahwa perilaku data antarruang sama dalam berbagai kurun waktu. pada beberapa studi data panel, model ini sering kali tidak pernah digunakan sebagai estimasi utama karena sifat dari model ini yang tidak membedakan perilaku data sehingga memungkinkan terjadinya bias, namun model ini digunakan sebagai pembanding dari kedua pemilihan model lainnya. 2) model pendekatan efek tetap (fixed effect) pendekatan model ini menggunakan variabel boneka atau dummy yang dikenal dengan sebutan model efek tetap (fixed effect) atau least square dummy variable atau disebut juga covariance model. pada metode fixed effect estimasi dapat dilakukan dengan tanpa pembobot (no weight) atau least square dummy variable (lsdv) dan dengan pembobot (cross section weight) atau general least square (gls). tujuan dilakukannya pembobotan adalah untuk mengurangi heterogenitas antarunit cross section (gujarati, 2012:241). penggunaan model ini tepat untuk melihat perilaku data dari masingmasing variabel sehingga data lebih dinamis dalam menginterpretasi data. pemilihan model antara common effect dengan fixed effect dapat dilakukan dengan pengujian likelihood test radio dengan ketentuan apabila nilai probabilitas yang dihasilkan signifikan dengan alpha maka dapat diambil keputusan dengan menggunakan fixed effect model. 3) model pendekatan efek acak (random effect). model data panel pendekatan ketiga yaitu model efek acak (random effect). dalam model efek acak, parameter-parameter yang berbeda antardaerah maupun antarwaktu dimasukkan ke dalam error. karena hal inilah, model efek acak juga disebut model komponen error (error component model). dengan menggunakan model efek acak ini, maka dapat menghemat pemakaian derajat kebebasan dan tidak mengurangi jumlahnya seperti yang dilakukan pada model efek tetap. hal ini berimplikasi parameter yang merupakan hasil estimasi akan jadi semakin efisien. keputusan penggunaan model efek tetap ataupun acak ditentukan dengan menggunakan uji hausman. dengan ketentuan apabila probabilitas yang dihasilkan signifikan dengan alpha maka dapat digunakan metode fixed effect namun apabila sebaliknya maka dapat memilih salah satu yang terbaik antara model fixed dengan random effect. teknik penaksiran model pada studi ekonomi, seorang peneliti sering menghadapi kendala data. apabila regresi diestimasi dengan data runtut waktu, observasi tidak mencukupi. jika regresi diestimasi dengan data lintas sektoral terlalu sedikit untuk menghasilkan estimasi yang efisien. salah satu solusi untuk menghasilkan estimasi yang efisien adalah dengan menggunakan model regresi data panel. data panel (pooling data) yaitu suatu model yang menggabungkan observasi lintas sektoral dan data runtut waktu. tujuannya supaya jumlah observasinya meningkat. apabila observasi meningkat maka akan mengurangi kolinieritas antara variabel penjelas dan pengangguran terbuka dan determinannya (mohammad rifqi muslim) 177 kemudian akan memperbaiki efisiensi estimasi ekonometri (insukindro, 2001). hal yang diungkap oleh baltagi (puji dalam irawan, 2012), ada beberapa kelebihan penggunaan data panel yaitu: 1) estimasi data panel dapat menunjukkan adanya heterogenitas dalam tiap unit. 2) penggunaan data panel lebih informatif, mengurangi kolinieritas antarvariabel, meningkatkan derajat kebebasan dan kebih efisien. 3) data panel cocok utnuk digunakan karena menggambarkan adanya dinamika perubahan. 4) data panel dapat meminimalkan bias yang mungkin dihasilkan dalam agregasi. untuk menguji estimasi pengaruh laju pertumbuhan penduduk, angkatan kerja, pendidikan dan pengeluaran pemerintah terhadap tingkat pengangguran terbuka digunakan alat regresi dengan model data panel. ada dua pendekatan yang digunakan dalam mengalisis data panel. pendekatann fixed effect dan random effect. sebelum model estimasi dengan model yang tepat, terlebih dahulu dilakukan uji spesifikasi apakah fixed effect dan random effect atau keduanya memberikan hasil yang sama. metode gls (generated least square) dipilih dalam studi ini karena adanya nilai lebih yang dimiliki oleh gls dibanding ols dalam mengestimasi parameter regresi. gujarati (2003) menyebutkan bahwa metode ols yang umum mengasumsikan bahwa varians variabel adalah heterogen, pada kenyataannya variasi pada data pooling cenderung heterogen. metode gls sudah memperhitungkan heterogenitas yang terdapat pada variabel independen secara eksplisit sehingga metode ini mampu menghasilkan estimator yang memenuhi kriteria blue (best linier unbiased estimator). di antara beberapa variabel yang digunakan dalam studi ini maka dapat dibuat model penelitan sebagai berikut: yti =β0+ β1x1it+ β2x2it + β3x3i + β4x4it t +ε 1) di mana y adalah variabel tingkat pengangguran terbuka; β0 adalah konstanta; β1234 adalah koefisien variabel 1,2,3,4; x1 adalah variab el laju pertumbuhan ekonomi; x2 adalah variabel angkatan kerja; x3 adalah variabel pendidikan; x4 adalah variabel pengeluaran pemerintah; i adalah kabupaten/kota; t adalah periode waktu ke-t; ε adalah error term. dalam menguji spesifikasi model pada studi, penulis menggunakan beberapa metode sebagai berikut: 1) uji hausman. uji spesifikasi hausman membandingkan model fixed effect dan random di bawah hipotesis nol yang berarti bahwa efek individual tidak berkorelasi dengan regresi dalam model (hausman, 1978). jika tes hausman tidak menunjukkan perbedaan yang signifikan (p>0,05), itu mencerminkan bahwa efek random estimator tidak aman bebas dari bias, dan karena itu lebih dianjurkan kepada estimasi fixed effect disukai daripada efek estimator tetap. 2) uji f (uji wald). uji f menguji signifikansi estimasi fixed effect, yang digunakan untuk memilih antara ols pooled tanpa variabel dummy atau fixed effect. f statistik di sini adalah sebagai uji chow. dalam hal ini, uji f digunakan untuk menentukan model terbaik antara kedua dengan melihat jumlah residual kuadrat (rss). uji f adalah sebagai berikut: f = / / 2) di mana: rss1 merupakan jumlah residual kuadrat pooled ols; rss2 merupakan jumlah residual kuadrat fixed effect; m merupakan pembilang; n-k merupakan denumerator. jika hipotesis nol ditolak, dapat disimpulkan model fixed effect lebih baik dari pooled ols. tabel 3. uji chow effect test statistic d.f. prob. cross-section f 5,745994 4,21 0,0028 cross-section chi-square 22,179089 4 0,0002 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 2, oktober 2014: 171-181 178 hasil dan pembahasan uji chow merupakan uji untuk menentukan model terbaik antara fixed effect dengan common/ pool effect. jika hasilnya menyatakan menerima hipotesis nol maka model yang terbaik untuk digunakan adalah model common. akan tetapi, jikalau hasilnya menyatakan menolak hipotesis nol maka model terbaik yang digunakan adalah fixed effect, dan pengujian akan berlanjut ke uji hausman. berdasarkan tabel uji chow, kedua nilai probabilitas cross section f dan chi square yang lebih kecil dari alpha 0,05 sehingga menolak hipotesis nol. jadi menurut uji chow, model yang terbaik digunakan adalah model dengan menggunakan metode fixed effect. berdasarkan hasil uji chow yang menolak hipotesis nol, maka pengujian data berlanjut ke uji hausman. uji hausman merupakan pengujian untuk menentukan penggunaan metode antara random dengan fixed. jika dari hasil uji hausman tersebut menyatakan menerima hipotesis nol maka model yang terbaik untuk digunakan adalah model random. akan tetapi, jikalau hasilnya menyatakan menolak hipotesis nol maka model terbaik yang digunakan adalah model fixed effect. tabel 4. uji hausman test summary chi-sq. statistic chisq.d.f prob. cross-section random 22,983976 4 0,0001 berdasarkan tabel uji hausman, nilai probabilitas cross section random adalah 0,0001 yang lebih kecil dari alpha 0,05 sehingga menolak hipotesis nol. jadi menurut uji hausman, model yang terbaik digunakan adalah model dengan menggunakan metode fixed effect. metode gls (general least square) yang pada intinya memberikan pembobotan pada variasi data yang digunakan, dengan kuadrat varian dari model. dalam metode ini heteroskedastisitas sudah diantisipasi, sehingga metode ini bebas dari heteroskedastisitas. dalam model ini, nilai dw adalah: 1,453621, yang menunjukkan tidak ada autokorelasi apapun sebagai hasil nilai berada dalam kisaran -2 dan +2. selain itu, model ini sudah diantisipasi dari autokolerasi dengan metode gls (generalized least square) yang digunakan pada metode ini. dalam uji penyimpangan asumsi klasik untuk pendekatan multikoliniearitas dilakukan dengan pendekatan atas nilai dan signifikansi dari variabel yang digunakan. pembahasannya adalah dengan menganalisis data yang digunakan oleh setiap variabel dan hasil dari olah data yang ada, data yang digunakan di antaranya data time series dan data cross section. namun multikoliniearitas terjadi biasanya pada data runtut waktu (time series) pada variabel yang digunakan. rule of thumb juga mengatakan apabila didapatkan yang tinggi sementara terdapat sebagian besar atau semua variabel secara parsial tidak signifikan maka diduga terjadi multikoliniearitas pada model tersebut (gujarati, 2006). dengan mengkombinasikan data time series dan cross section mengakibatkan masalah multikoliniearitas dapat dikurangi, dalam pengertian satu varian yang tidak ada hubungannya atau informasi apriori yang disarankan sebelumnya adalah kombinasi dari cross section dan data time series. dikenal dengan penggabungan data (pooling data), jadi sebenarnya secara teknis sudah dapat dikatakan masalah multikoliniearitas sudah tidak ada. hal tersebut sudah diperkuat dengan hasil estimasi model semua variabel yang digunakan signifikan dan nilai sangat tinggi. sehingga secara tegas bahwa masalah multikoleniearitas tidak ada dalam metode analisis gls (general least square). model gls (general least square) berdasarkan hasil regresi pada tabel 5 maka dapat disimpulkan y = f (lpe, lnak, p, lnpp) diperoleh hasil persamaan regresi sebagai berikut: yt = a0 + a1 lnlpe + a2 lnak + a3 p + a4 lnpp + et 3) yt = -18,8 – 1,25 lpe + 4,15 lnak – 0,27 p – 0,06 lnpp + et 4) pengangguran terbuka dan determinannya (mohammad rifqi muslim) 179 di mana: y adalah variabel tingkat pengangguran terbuka; lnlpe adalah laju pertumbuhan ekonomi; lnak adalah angkatan kerja; p adalah variabel pendidikan, lnpp adalah pengeluaran pemerintah, a0 adalah konstansta, a1–a3 adalah koefisien parameter, et adalah disturbance error. berdasarkan data yang sudah diolah, laju pertumbuhan ekonomi menunjukkan tanda negatif dan signifikan secara statistik pada derajat kepercayaan 1 persen untuk semua kabupaten/ kota di diy. koefisien laju pertumbuhan ekonomi mempunyai nilai sebesar 1,253283, yang berarti apabila peningkatan laju pertumbuhan ekonomi sebesar 1 persen maka tingkat pengangguran terbuka akan menurun 1,25 persen dengan asumsi tidak ada perubahan dalam jumlah variabel bebas. variabel laju pertumbuhan ekonomi mempunyai koefisien negatif yang berarti antara variabel laju pertumbuhan ekonomi dengan tingkat pengangguran terbuka mempunyai hubungan yang negatif. hal ini sesuai dengan hipotesis bahwa variabel laju pertumbuhan ekonomi berpengaruh negatif terhadap tingkat pengangguran terbuka di daerah istimewa yogyakarta. studi ini mempunyai kesamaan terhadap studi zulhanafi, hasdi aimon, efrizal syofyan (2013) adanya pengaruh yang signifikan antara tingkat pengangguran dan pertumbuhan ekonomi mengindikasikan bahwasanya tingkat pengangguran dipengaruhi oleh pertumbuhan ekonomi. apabila pertumbuhan ekonomi meningkat berarti telah terjadi kenaikan terhadap produksi barang dan jasa, karena kenaikan produksi barang dan jasa akan menyebabkan kenaikan terhadap faktorfaktor produksi salah satunya adalah tenaga kerja. kenaikan permintaan tenaga kerja ini akan berakibat terhadap menurunnya tingkat pengangguran, begitu juga sebaliknya. berdasarkan studi di atas dapat dijelaskan bahwa variabel angkatan kerja berpengaruh positif dan signifikan. peningkatan angkatan kerja sebanyak 1 persen, maka tingkat pengangguran terbuka akan meningkat 4,14 persen di daerah istimewa yogyakarta. hal ini sesuai dengan teori permintaan tenaga kerja, di mana permintaan adalah hubungan antara tingkat upah dan kuantitas tenaga kerja yang dikehendaki oleh majikan untuk dipekerjakan. ketika pasokan tenaga kerja memiliki jumlah banyak tetapi permintaan atas jumlah tenaga kerja yang dikehendaki atau dipekerjakan sedikit maka akan mengakibatkan surplus tenaga kerja. berdasarkan data yang sudah diolah, pendidikan menunjukkan tanda negatif dan signifikan secara statistik pada derajat kepercayaan 1 persen untuk semua kabupaten/kota di daerah istimewa yogyakarta. peningkatan laju pertumbuhan ekonomi sebesar 1 persen maka tingkat pengangguran terbuka akan menurun 0,27 persen dengan asumsi tidak ada perubahan dalam jumlah variabel bebas. variabel pendidikan mempunyai koefisien negatif yang berarti antara variabel pendidikan dengan tingkat pengangguran terbuka mempunyai hubungan yang negatif. hal ini sesuai dengan hipotesis bahwa variabel pendidikan berpengaruh negatif terhadap tingkat pengangguran terbuka di daerah istimewa yogyakarta. studi ini mempunyai kesamaan terhadap studi marhaeni (2013) di mana terdapatnya pengaruh yang negatif antara indeks pendidikan dan tingkat pengangtabel 5. hasil analisis model gls (general least square) dependent variable: tpt variable coefficient c -18,79752*** lpe -1,253283*** lnak 4,147202*** p -0,273174*** lnpp -0,056279*** adj r-square 0,999806 f-statistic 18639,52 prob (f-statistic) 0,000000 durbin watson stat 1,453621 *** signifikan pada level 1 % ; ** signifikan pada level 5 % ; * signifikan pada level 10 % jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 2, oktober 2014: 171-181 180 guran terbuka mengindikasikan bahwasanya tingkat pengangguran dipengaruhi oleh indeks pendidikan. yang berarti pendidikan dapat mengurangi jumlah pengangguran sesuai dengan teori, jadi pendidikan merupakan salah satu faktor yang harus ditingkatkan lagi agar kualitas sumberdaya manusia daerah istimewa yogyakarta semakin berkualitas dan mempunyai daya saing. berdasarkan data yang sudah diolah, pengeluaran pemerintah menunjukkan tanda negatif dan signifikan secara statistik pada derajat kepercayaan 1 persen untuk semua kabupaten/kota di daerah istimewa yogyakarta. peningkatan laju pertumbuhan ekonomi sebesar 1 persen akan menurunkan tingkat pengangguran terbuka 0,05 persen dengan asumsi tidak ada perubahan dalam jumlah variabel bebas. variabel pendidikan mempunyai koefisien negatif yang berarti antara variabel pendidikan dengan tingkat pengangguran terbuka mempunyai hubungan yang negatif. hasil olah data laju pertumbuhan ekonomi, angkatan kerja, pendidikan dan pengeluaran pemerintah terhadap tingkat pengangguran terbuka di kabupatan dan kota daerah istimewa yogyakarta periode tahun 2007 sampai 2012 memperlihatkan nilai r sebesar 0,99. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa secara statistik 99,9% tingkat pengangguran terbuka (tpt) dipengaruhi oleh laju pertumbuhan ekonomi, angkatan kerja, pendidikan dan pengeluaran pemerintah. sedangkan sisanya 0,01% dipengaruhi oleh variabel di luar studi ini. simpulan berdasarkan hasil studi diketahui pengaruh laju pertumbuhan ekonomi berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap tingkat pengangguran terbuka di kabupaten dan kota daerah istimewa yogyakarta. studi ini mempunyai kesamaan dengan studi zulhanafi, hasdi aimon, efrizal syofyan (2013). di mana apabila pertumbuhan ekonomi meningkat berarti telah terjadi kenaikan terhadap produksi barang dan jasa, karena kenaikan produksi barang dan jasa akan menyebabkan kenaikan terhadap faktorfaktor produksi salah satunya adalah tenaga kerja. kenaikan permintaan tenaga kerja ini akan berakibat terhadap menurunnya tingkat pengangguran, begitu juga sebaliknya. angkatan kerja berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap tingkat pengangguran terbuka di kabupaten dan kota daerah istimewa yogyakarta. hal ini sesuai dengan teori permintaan tenaga kerja, di mana permintaan adalah hubungan antara tingkat upah dan kuantitas tenaga kerja yang dikehendaki oleh majikan untuk dipekerjakan. di mana ketika pasokan tenaga kerja memiliki jumlah banyak tetapi permintaan atas jumlah tenaga kerja yang dikehendaki atau dipekerjakan sedikit maka akan mengakibatkan surplus tenaga kerja. berdasarkan hasil studi diketahui pengaruh pendidikan berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap tingkat pengangguran terbuka di kabupaten dan kota daerah istimewa yogyakarta. studi ini mempunyai kesamaan dengan studi sirait dan marhaeni (2013). pendidikan dapat mengurangi jumlah pengangguran sesuai dengan teori human capital, jadi pendidikan merupakan salah satu faktor yang harus ditingkatkan lagi agar kualitas sumberdaya manusia daerah istimewa yogyakarta semakin berkualitas dan mempunyai daya saing. berdasarkan hasil studi diketahui pengaruh pengeluaran pemerintah berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap tingkat pengangguran terbuka di kabupaten dan kota daerah istimewa yogyakarta. hal ini sesuai dengan teori keynes, ketika peningkatan dalam pengeluaran pemerintah dan penurunan dalam pajak, maka suatu suntikan (injection) ke dalam aliran sirkulasi pendapatan nasional akan menaikkan permintaan agregat dan melalui efek pengganda akan menciptakan tambahan lapangan pekerjaan. tambahan lapangan pekerjaan tersebut akan mengurangi tingkat pengangguran terbuka yang ada. daftar pustaka ajija, shochrul r. (2011). cara cerdas menguasai eviews. jakarta: salemba empat. alghofari, farid. (2010). analisis tingkat pengangguran di indonesia tahun 1980-2007. skripsi. semarang: fakultas ekonomi universitas diponegoro. pengangguran terbuka dan determinannya (mohammad rifqi muslim) 181 gujarati, damodar. (2006). dasar-dasar ekonometrika. jakarta: erlangga. hausman, jerry a. (1978). specification tests in econometrics. econometrica: journal of the econometric society: 1251-1271. hudiyanto. (2001). ekonomi indonesia: sistem dan kebijakan. yogyakarta: ppe umy. idris i, ginting s.p., dan budiman. (2007). membangunkan raksasa ekonomi: sebuah kajian terhadap perundang-undangan pengelolaan wilayah pesisir dan pulau-pulau kecil. penerbit buku ilmiah populer. insukindro, maryatmo, r. dan aliman. (2001). modul ekonometrika dasar dan penyusunan indikator unggulan ekonomi. yogyakarta: universitas gadjah mada. kuncoro, m. (2004). metode kuantitatif, teori dan aplikasi untuk bisnis dan ekonomi. yogyakarta: unit penerbit dan percetakan amp ykpn. pitartono, r. dan hayati, b. (2012). analisis tingkat pengaruh pengangguran di jawa tengah tahun 1997-2010. jurnal ekonomi universitas diponegoro. universitas diponegoro. sirait, n. dan marhaeni, a.a.i.n. (2013). analisis beberapa faktor yang berpengaruh terhadap jumlah pengangguran kabupaten/kota di provinsi bali. e-jurnal ekonomi pembangunan universitas udayana 2.2. sumodiningrat, g. (2010). ekonomika pengantar. edisi ke2. yogyakarta: bpfe. sukirno, s. (2008). ekonomi pembangunan. jakarta: bima grafika. zulhanafi, hasdi aimon, efrizal syofyan. (2013). analisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi produktivitas dan tingkat pengangguran di indonesia. jurnal kajian ekonomi vol.2. no.3. jesp | jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan article type: research paper valuing public transportation using contingent valuation method: a study of commuter line (krl) in tangerang selatan, west java indonesia endah saptutyningsih*, laila karimah abstract: this study aims to determine the value of willingness to pay for commuter line (krl) users to improve the quality of krl services and identify determinants of willingness to pay for krl service users to improve service quality. the method used in this study is a contingent valuation method. in collecting data used the face to face interview method with the electric rail train user. the results of the study show that the average wtp for improving the quality of krl services is idr 4,500 (usd 0.32). the cleanliness, comfort, travel time, and income of each krl user affect the ktp users to improve the quality of krl services. the result of the study is expected to improve the quality of krl services, especially in south tangerang, and can be a reference for managers for public transportation services. keywords: public transportation; willingness to pay, contingent valuation method; commuter line; economic valuation. jel classification: r40. introduction the use of electric train services or known as krl can be the main choice in transportation services. therefore, rail transportation services must be able to provide maximum satisfaction to users, especially in terms of service and convenience of customers on the train. logit models have been used in several previous studies to examine the determinants of service quality of different modes of transportation (hensher, 2002; henser, 2001). by using this model, various determinants of the quality of transportation service services can be estimated. one of the most widely used means of transportation is the commuter line (krl). in 2015 the use of krl train services increased by 40.65%. the total number of passengers is 257,530,195 for all jabodetabek krl users with 705,562 passengers per day, the number of stations passed by krl per day is 881, 70 stations and there are 666 krl units used. net income received by jabodetabek commuter pt. kai is idr1.7 trillion with a total number of employees of 3,028 people. safety for the users of this service is continually improved so that people feel comfortable when entrain, pt. kai installed as affiliation: universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta. indonesia. *correspondence: endahsaptuty@umy.ac.id this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.20.1.5017 citation: saptutyningsih, e. & karimah, l. (2019). valuing public transportation using contingent valuation method: a study of commuter line (krl) in tangerang selatan, west java indonesia. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 20(1), 89-98 article history received: october 2018 accepted: april 2019 http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp saptutyningsih & karimah valuing public transportation using contingent valuation method: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 90 many as 300 cctvs that were distributed throughout the stations and train cars (pt kai's report, 2017). tangerang is a business city that competes with the capital city of jakarta which has the highest level of mobility. the high population density and the high value of land in tangerang as a business center are highly dependent on surrounding areas such as jakarta, bogor, and bekasi in their economic activities. high mobility from the buffer zone to the center and vice versa, requires effective and efficient transportation and the right type of transportation. the number of krl commuter line passengers in november 2016 was around 24,104 people or 4.75 percent of the total number of train passengers outside java and in december 2016 it increased to 24841 people. from january to february 2017 it was noted that there was a decrease in the number of jabodetabek krl passengers to 21,743 people. in march 2017 it increased to 25,411 passengers. this figure continues to increase until may 2017 as 27,385 passengers and down again in june, which is around 24,432. in july 2017 the number of passengers rose to 27,016 passengers and continued to increase along with access to work locations which was getting easier and faster when using krl. based on the pt kai report (2017) there are several shortcomings of pt. kai include: 1) number of passengers who always exceed capacity so that it is not comfortable; 2) disruption of facilities and infrastructure as well as technical problems so that the departure and arrival schedules are often not on time; 3) train accidents often occur either caused by human errors or technical errors so that they cannot provide safe services. therefore, it is necessary to improve the quality of krl services so that users get satisfaction. the satisfaction of krl users to obtain good services can be measured using economic valuations. user satisfaction is one item that has no market price or in other words nonmarket goods. to conduct an economic valuation of non-market goods can be determined by calculating the amount of willingness to pay (wtp). willingness to pay (wtp) is the willingness to pay for a better quality of goods and services. this study aims to calculate paps for krl service users to improve the quality of krl services and the factors that influence them. figure 1 the number of passengers of krl source: central statistics agency, 2017 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 krl jabodetabek krl non-jabodetabek saptutyningsih & karimah valuing public transportation using contingent valuation method: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 91 this study is similar to the study conducted by sari and setiartiti (2015) with cvm analysis tools. the average wtp to improve the quality of trains is idr 78,666 per person. the study found that age, length of education, income, number of dependents, the purpose of the trip had a positive and significant effect on long-distance economy class trains in jogja-jakarta. the study conducted by lestari and nahdalina (2017) found that the ease of buying tickets, cleanliness, security and service personnel had a positive and significant influence on paps. the users of kopaja bus services are willing to pay an additional more than idr2000 for service to increase. emalia and huntar (2015) use cvm with binary logistic regression analysis. the study found that income and education level had a positive and significant effect on paps while the frequency of garbage transportation had a positive but not significant effect on paps. the total number of paps for service quality is idr 18,200. as many as 73 respondents were willing to pay for waste processing and comply with processing rules while as many as 21 respondents did not comply with the rules. permata (2012) found that airport trains were made to facilitate access to the airport with an average wtp of rp 23,195. the percentage of respondents who want to pay for safety services to be better is 80%. as many as 50% of respondents stated that the most dominant priority in customer service for railroad users was the timeliness of service. while respondents who stated that convenience needs to be prioritized as much as 20% and the rest stated that the ease of obtaining service and responsibility was necessary for serving train users. julien and mahalli (2015) have examined the ability to pay and willingness to pay for the airport railink service. the results show that the average respondent's ability to pay is idr 78,375 and the average willingness of the respondent to pay is idr 60,375. however, after an increase in quality, the average respondent's ability to pay will be idr 71,375 with the average wtp added by the respondents of idr 22,632. abuhamoud et al. (2011) employed binary logit analysis with the dependent variable "0" if using a government bus and "1" if using a car. the study was conducted in the tripoli which has a very high level of private and public transportation use. the number of samples is 350 respondents which are stratified sampling. the study recommends reducing car use during rush hour, focus on increasing the cost of use and providing faster and more reliable public transportation. the use of cvm in economic valuation of public transportation, especially in big cities in indonesia, which is much in demand by public transportation users, still needs to be explored further. therefore, this study aims to find out the determinants of wtp of krl users for improving the quality of krl services. it is hoped that this study can improve the quality of public transportation facilities, especially krl in major cities in indonesia, and the quality of transportation facilities in general so that people use more public transportation facilities rather than private vehicles. this can be one solution to reduce the high level of congestion which can also indirectly improve air quality in major cities in indonesia. table 1 relation between independent and dependent variables variable sign references clean + lestari dan nahdalia (2017), masrun et al (2016) comfort masrun et al (2016) traveltime + hensher dan rose (2007), lestari dan nahdalia (2017) income + setiartiti dan sari (2015), emalia & huntar (2015), hensher dan rose (2007) source: author calculation saptutyningsih & karimah valuing public transportation using contingent valuation method: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 92 research method study site this study was conducted in the city of south tangerang, precisely at stations spread in the serpong area. the research subjects were the users of serpong–tanah abang electric rail (krl) services. data is obtained directly from respondents using the on-site questionnaire technique with krl service users who are in the area around serpong and well informed about the facilities of the krl. sampling technique the sampling method used for this study is a random sampling technique. according to issac and michael (1981), the number of samples is determined as follows: s = 𝜆².𝑁.𝑃.𝑄 𝑑2(𝑁−1)+ 𝜆² 𝑃𝑄 where s is the number of samples; n is total population; λ² is chi-square, with an error rate of 10%; d is 0.05; p = q = 0.05 so that the total sample of this study was 267 respondents. survey design and administration we surveyed the krl users in the study site to investigate their contribution to improving the krl services quality. their contribution was measured they willing or not to support for improving the krl services quality by the ticket payment. these identified the krl users who care or not about public transportation quality. in order to identify the amount of ticket price for the krl service. we conducted a focus group discussion with 20 krl users who well informed about the krl services. in the discussion, we employed the contingent valuation method that constructed a hypothetical market to measure krl users’ willingness to pay (wtp) for a certain change in the quality (bedate, herrero, & sanz, 2004; sanz, herrero & a. m. bedate, 2003). the average wtp of informed krl users were idr 4,500 (usd 0.32). it could distinguish visitors with sufficient financial support for the museum from those without. based on this estimation, we designed a question to find out whether participants would be willing or not willing to pay idr 4,500 (usd 0.32). for the krl ticket price. data analysis the researcher applied a single dichotomous choice method tied to two possible respondent answers namely "yes" or "no". the dichotomous choice method best uses the contingent valuation method (cvm) approach because this method is closest to market behavior when consumers will choose to buy something or not at a certain price (bateman et.al., 2002). we employed a logistic regression (wang & elhag, 2007) to identify the determinants of krl users’ wtp for improving the quality of the krl services. the dependent variable of the model was the krl users’ wtp for improving the quality of the saptutyningsih & karimah valuing public transportation using contingent valuation method: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 93 krl services, where 1 indicated their agreements (they willing to pay as idr 4,500) and 0 showed their disagreements (they are not willing to pay as idr 4,500). the independent variables of the model included cleanliness, comfort, travel time, and income. according to hosmer and lemeshow (1989) binary logistic regression is an analytical method used to determine the relationship between the response variable (y) and the binding variable (x) which has the properties of dichotomous or polytomous. based on empirical studies the regression models in this study are as follows: log ( 0 1−𝑝 ) = ß0 + ß1 clean + ß2 comfort + ß3 travel time + ß4 income + e the characteristics of respondents this study uses primary data obtained from the on-site questionnaire to 267 respondents who are krl transportation service users, especially those departing from serpong and buntu swamp stations. this study begins on january 18, 2018, until january 31, 2018. the majority of male krl users use krl transportation across jabodetabek with a percentage reaching 64.04 percent while women reach 35.96 percent. the most dominant number of family dependents 5 people, namely 25.47 percent and the least dependents are one person and the most dependents are as many as 9 people with a percentage of 1.12 percent. the most dominant type of work of respondents is as civil servants (pns) as much as 68.54 percent, traders as much as 10.86 percent, students as much as 7.49 percent, entrepreneurs as much as 4.12 percent, private employees as much as 3.75 percent, teachers as many as 2, 25 percent. while housewives and cpns as much as 0.75 percent and therapists. unemployment. tni / polri and professionals 0.37 percent, respectively. age of respondents varies from 21 years to 55 years. the dominant respondents in this study were ages 21 to 25 years, which were 29.96 percent and the rarest were those aged 51 to 55 years 2.25 percent. respondents in this study were people who had activities in the serpong area to tanahabang station. the number of family dependents is indirectly one of the characteristics of the community in using the electric rail (krl). especially for some families who have more than 3 dependents. this is one of the reasons why people make the decision to use krl. in addition to the very cheap price, it can save monthly fees. krl can also save travel time because there is no need to experience congestion. there are 135 respondents or 51 percent who think the number of dependents is not the main reason for using krl. one reason for using transportation. based on the observations of researchers on the choice in using transportation with the number of family dependents it is not the main reason for respondents to drive. this is because it is not the family's responsibility which is their reason for using krl. however, there are other reasons for their choice of using krl transportation. the average income per month is one of the factors that influence the decision of krl users in issuing costs to improve the quality of krl services. the highest amount of income is dominated by the amount of income of idr 2,000,000 to idr 300,000 163 respondents saptutyningsih & karimah valuing public transportation using contingent valuation method: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 94 (61 percent). 63 respondents with a percentage of 25 percent had an income of idr 500,000 to idr 1,000,000 and the least amount of income was between idr 3,000,000 to idr 4,000,000 as many as 7 people (3 percent). cleanliness of transportation facilities is one of the people's choices in choosing transportation equipment. if the conditions of transportation equipment, especially clean trains, people tend to choose clean and easy trains because it will be different if they use other means of transportation such as public buses between cities and public transportation. as many as 212 respondents (79 percent) stated that the condition of the krl was in accordance with the standard, namely the presence of a janitor. there were 55 respondents (21 percent) who thought that the current krl conditions were not satisfactory. respondents' characteristics of train convenience in their journey are one of the main choices of the community. pt kai also continues to improve the quality of its services in terms of convenience so that the community continues to use public transportation, one of which is inter-city trains provided by the government. a total of 203 respondents (76 percent) reached more than half of the respondents who agreed with company policies that would make trains with the second tier. this is known when conducting interviews with the company that they are studying this so that people can feel comfortable and not crammed in on the train again. and as many as 64 respondents (24 percent) who think that they do not agree with making a second-tier train because it will make it difficult for the community to go upstairs and it will be difficult when getting off the train. travel duration is one reason for using krl. this is because using krl across jabodetabek can save time compared to using other public transportation or even using private vehicles. 247 respondents (93 percent) agreed that the length of the trip was their reason when using krl. because it can save time to reach destinations, especially for residents of south tangerang who have busy activities in the jakarta area. depok. bekasi and bogor. 20 respondents (7 percent) did not make the length of the trip as a reason for them to use krl. the average wtp for improving krl service quality is idr 4,500 obtained from focus group discussions with 15 random krl service users by asking their wtp to improve the quality of krl services. the minimum value of their wtp is idr 4,000 while the maximum value is idr 100,000. then it was obtained as many as 211 respondents (79 percent) were willing to pay idr 4,500 through the ticket price of krl from serpong to tanah abang. table 2 wtp of respondents wtp = idr 4,500 percentage yes 79% no 21% total 100% source: author calculation saptutyningsih & karimah valuing public transportation using contingent valuation method: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 95 result and discussion all variables used in this study are valid based on the results of validity testing. based on the results of the cronbach alpha test of the 4 variables tested in this study showed a value of -3.2 meaning that all instrument variables in this study did not have moderate reliability. of the 267 respondents, the majority stated that cleanliness was in accordance with their standards. likewise, they stated that the convenience of krl was the respondent's choice to continue using krl. the average travel time is 21.70 minutes. the average respondent's income is idr 2,192,883. the average value for the willingness to pay variable is 0.79, which indicates that the willingness to pay variable is dominated by respondents who are willing to pay idr 4,500 to improve the quality of krl services. regression feasibility test (wald test) seen from the value of hosmer and lemeshow's test shows that the variables of cleanliness, comfort, length of travel, and income can provide an explanation and prediction of the value of willingness to pay. this research model is suitable for use in this study. model fit test functions to assess whether the model is fit or not fit between the model and the data obtained. in this study, the value of -2 log likelihood (block = 0) was 274,267 and the value of -2 log likelihood (block = 1) was 180,979. the decrease in value from -2ll (block = 1) and -2ll (block = 1) is 274,267 185,008 = 93,228. so it can be concluded that this study fulfills the model fit assumptions. based on the chi-square value in this study it can be concluded that the variables of cleanliness, comfort, length of trip and income simultaneously affect the dependent variable or at least one independent variable that affects the dependent variable. table 3 descriptive statistics of variable minimum maximum mean std. dev. clean 0 1 0,79 0,405 comfort 0 1 0,76 0,428 traveltime 2 155 21,70 16,077 income 500000 4000000 2192883,90 914207,984 wtp 0 1 0,79 0,408 source: author calculation table 4 regression result variable coef. sig. odd ratio clean 3,444 0,000 31,301 comfort 1,170 0,008 3,223 traveltime -0,023 0,021 0,977 income 0,000 0,018 1,000 constant -2,412 0,002 0,090 source: author calculation saptutyningsih & karimah valuing public transportation using contingent valuation method: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 96 the positive relationship between cleanliness and wtp variables in this study shows that krl users who consider krl cleanliness guaranteed to pay higher than krl users who think that krl cleanliness is not maintained. this shows the high concern of krl users for the cleanliness of public transportation because they want to pay more so that the cleanliness of public transportation is maintained. the results of this study are supported by studies conducted by lestari and nahdalia (2017) and masrun et al (2016). the comfort coefficient value is positive indicating that if the krl comfort level using krl is high, the willingness to pay krl users for service quality will be even higher. the positive relationship between comfort and wtp in this study is because someone wants to sacrifice more to get satisfaction by feeling more comfortable using public transportation than private vehicles. this can be made possible because using public transportation can reduce congestion and pollution. the results of this study, differ from studies conducted by masrun et al (2016). the duration of the trip has a significant influence on the wtp to improve the quality of krl services. the coefficient value of the variable duration of the trip is negative, indicating that visitors who take longer trips using krl are willing to pay for improvements in the quality of krl services. the negative relationship between the duration of the trip with the wtp in this study is because krl users do not want to spend more money to get facilities that are not what they want. time is one of the costs when someone does an activity. if in carrying out activities or going to a place requires longer time, then the opportunity cost will be even greater. a rational person does not want to carry out activities with high opportunity costs. therefore, wtp krl service users are low if the travel time is long. the results of this study, supported studies conducted by hensher and rose (2007), lestari and nahdalia (2017). krl service user revenue has a significant influence on the value of paps to improve the quality of krl services. a positive sign indicates that krl users who have a higher income will be willing to pay to improve the quality of krl services. the positive relationship between income and wtp in this study is because it shows that the increasing income of krl users will pay higher ticket prices so that better krl services. when someone wants to get higher satisfaction, then he wants the results of this study, to have a similarity of studies conducted by sari and setiartiti (2015), emalia and huntari (2015), hensher and rose (2007). conclusion the percentage of krl service users who are willing to pay idr 4,500 to improve the quality of krl services is 79 percent. this indicates that the awareness of krl users to improve the quality of krl services is still low. the positive relationship between cleanliness and comfort with the wtp shows the tendency of krl users to be willing to pay more if the quality of krl services is improved. users of public transportation mean transportation will tend to demand that the quality of krl services be better if the price of krl tickets is higher. saptutyningsih & karimah valuing public transportation using contingent valuation method: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 97 the results of studies that show that krl users with higher incomes are willing to pay more to improve the quality of krl services, indicating that krl managers need to make market segmentation for high-income krl users so that they can contribute in improving the quality of krl services. moreover, they are dominated by private vehicle users who contribute to congestion and pollution in big cities. by improving the quality of krl services, it can reduce the level of congestion and pollution problems that can indirectly have an impact on the declining air quality and public health in urban areas. in addition, the local and central government should also reorganize urban spatial planning, and provide various modes of public transportation to limit the use of private vehicles. future research is better to use economic valuation with various components of public transportation services and provide a variety of public transportation policy scenarios so that it can be used as a policy recommendation for public and government transport managers to encourage the use of public transportation. this is intended to reduce the level of congestion and pollution that is already quite high, especially in big cities in indonesia. references abuhamoud, m. a. a., rahmat, r. a. o. k., & ismail, a. (2011). modeling of transport mode in libya: a binary logit model for government transportation encouragement. australian journal of basic and applied sciences, 5(5), 1291-1296. bateman, i., hanemann, m., hanley, n., hett, t., jones-lee, m., loomes, g., carson, r., & day, b. (2002). economic valuation with stated preference techniques: a manual. ecological economics. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781781009727 bedate, a., herrero, l.c. & sanz, j.a. (2004). economic valuation of the cultural heritage: application to four case studies in spain. journal of cultural heritage, 5(1), 101-111. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.culher.2003.04.002 emalia, z., & huntari, d. (2015). willingness to pay masyarakat terhadap penggunaan jasa pengolahan sampah. jurnal ekonomi kuantitatif terapan, 9(1). hensher, d. a. (2002). a service quality index for area-wide contract performance assessment regime. journal of transport economics and policy, 18, 259-276. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0739-8859(06)18014-2 hensher, d. a., & rose, j. m. (2007). development of commuter and non-commuter mode choice models for the assessment of new public transport infrastructure projects: a case study. transportation research part a: policy and practice, 41(5), 428-443. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2006.09.006 hensher, d.a. (2001). service quality as a package: what does it mean to heterogeneous consumers?. proceedings of 9th world conference on transport research, 22-27 july, seoul, korea. hosmer, d. w., & lemeshow, s. (1989). applied regression analysis. new york: john willey. retrieved from: http://resource.heartonline.cn/20150528/1_3koqstg.pdf julien, j., & mahalli, k. (2015). analisis ability to pay dan willingness to pay pengguna jasa kereta api bandara kualanamu (airport railink service). ekonomi dan keuangan (2). lestari, n. a., & nahdalia, n. (2017). analisis ketersediaan pengguna jasa dalam membayar terhadap peningkatan kualitas pelayanan (studi kasus: kopaja p20 jurusan senen– lebak bulus). jurnal ilmiah desain dan konstruksi, 16(1). https://doi.org/10.4337/9781781009727 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.culher.2003.04.002 https://doi.org/10.1016/s0739-8859(06)18014-2 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2006.09.006 http://resource.heartonline.cn/20150528/1_3koqstg.pdf saptutyningsih & karimah valuing public transportation using contingent valuation method: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 98 masrun, m., ruslan, m., mahyudin, i., & rizali, a. (2016). analisis penerapan konsep ecoairport dengan menggunakan metode willingness to pay di bandar udara syamsudin noor banjarmasin kalimantan selatan. enviroscienteae 12(3), 247-255. https://doi.org/10.20527/es.v12i3.2450 permata, m.r. (2012). analisa ability to pay dan willingness to pay pengguna jasa kereta api bandara soekarno hatta–manggarai. thesis. jakarta: universitas indonesia. sanz j. á., l. c. herrero & a. m. bedate. (2003). contingent valuation and semiparametric methods: a case study of the national museum of sculpture in valladolid, spain, journal of cultural economics, 27(34), 241-257. https://doi.org/10.1023/a:1026353218280 sari, h. p., & setiartiti, l. (2015). willingness to pay perbaikan kualitas pelayanan kereta api. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 16(2), 200-209. wang, y., & elhag, t. (2007). a comparison of neural network, evidential reasoning and multiple regression analysis in modeling bridge risks. expert systems with applications, 32(2), 336–348. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2005.11.029 https://doi.org/10.20527/es.v12i3.2450 https://doi.org/10.1023/a:1026353218280 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2005.11.029 microsoft word 07-suryanto _11 hlm_ jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan  volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 99 ‐ 109  mampukah pdb hijau mengakomodasi degradasi  lingkungan dan kesejahteraan masyarakat?  suryanto  fakultas ekonomi universitas sebelas maret surakarta   jalan ir. sutami 36 a surakarta 57126 telp. (0271) 646994 fax. (0271) 646655   e‐mail: yanto.rimsy@gmail.com  abstrak: teori ekonomi khususnya teori pembangunan dikembangkan dari produk domestik bruto (pdb) untuk pembangunan ekonomi yang berkelanjutan. skenario menuju ekonomi yang berkelanjutan masih ditandai berbagai pendapat mengenai implementasi pdb hijau. ada gagasan bahwa dampak lingkungan secara otomatis akan berkurang jika tingkat kesejahteraan masyarakat telah dicapai. sementara pendapat lain mengatakan bahwa tidak ada hubungan positif antara pertumbuhan ekonomi dengan meningkatkan kualitas lingkungan. makalah ini menyajikan argumen kedua pendapat. makalah ini diakhiri dengan ulasan konsep pdb hijau dikaitkan dengan kerusakan lingkungan, dan kesejahteraan masyarakat. tingkat pertumbuhan pdb hijau memiliki konsekuensi ekonomi yang rendah sejak dikoreksi oleh kendala lingkungan. namun, kualitas lingkungan yang meningkat akan memberi harapan bagi manusia untuk hidup berkelanjutan. masalah yang harus diselesaikan dalam pelaksanaan pdb hijau adalah mendefinisikan kembali kesejahteraan. kata kunci: pdb hijau, pdb coklat, kesejahteraan masyarakat, degradasi lingkungan abstract: economic theories, especially theories of development evolves from the gross domestic product (gdp) to the sustainable economic development. but the scenario toward economic sustainability is still characterized various opinions on the implementation of green gdp. there is the notion that environmental impacts will be reduced automatically if the level of public welfare has been achieved. while other opinion says that there is no positive relationship between economic growth by improving environmental quality. this paper presents the arguments of these two opinions. this paper concludes with reviews of green gdp concept is associated with environmental degradation, and welfare of the community. green gdp growth rates have economic consequences that low since corrected by environmental constraints. however, improved environmental quality and provide hope for humans to live sustainable. problem that must be addressed along with the implementation of green gdp is to do redefinition of welfare. keywords: green gdp, chocolate gdp, welfare society, environmental degradation pendahuluan  sebagian  besar  teori  ekonomi  terutama  per‐ tumbuhan ekonomi makro mengabaikan ma‐ salah‐masalah  lingkungan.  biasanya  dalam  teori  ekonomi,  isu‐isu  lingkungan  dianggap  tidak  bermasalah.  secara  implisit  sering  di‐ asumsikan bahwa konsekuensi masalah ling‐ kungan adalah masalah kecil atau akan sele‐ sai dengan sendirinya (arrow et.al, 1995). be‐ berapa ahli seperti bhagwati (1993) justru ber‐ pendapat  bahwa  pertumbuhan  sebagai  pra  kondisi  bagi  perbaikan  lingkungan.  sebagai  contoh  beckerman  (1992)  berpendapat,  kore‐ lasi yang kuat antara pendapatan dan ukuran  perlindungan  lingkungan  menunjukkan  hu‐ jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 99 ‐ 109 100  bungan  yang  positif.  bahkan  lebih  lanjut  di  negara‐negara  berkembang,  pertumbuhan  ekonomi akan menguatkan kemampuan per‐ baikan  terhadap  lingkungan  (panayotou,  1993:14).  di  lain  pihak  ada  juga  pendapat  yang  menyatakan  sebaliknya  seperti  geor‐ gegescu‐roegen  (1997)  menyebutkan  bahwa  pertumbuhan ekonomi  tidak selaras dengan  lingkungan  berkelanjutan.  daly  (1977)  ber‐ argumentasi  bahwa  pertumbuhan  ekonomi  akan mendorong perekonomian dunia menu‐ ju  batasnya  atau  daya  dukung  lingkungan  semakin terbatas.  dalam  istilah  ekonomi  “pembangunan”  biasanya  diartikan  sebagai  kapasitas  dari  suatu  perekonomian  nasional,  yang  kondisi  awalnya  lebih  kurang  statis  dalam  jangka  waktu  yang  cukup  lama,  untuk  berupaya  menghasilkan  dan  mempertahankan  kenai‐ kan  tahunan produk nasional bruto  (todaro,  1994). pembangunan pada tahun 1960‐an dan  tahun  1970‐an  secara  keseluruhan  hampir  selalu dilihat sebagai  fenomena ekonomi, di  mana pertumbuhan gnp per kapita yang ce‐ pat  akan  “menetes  ke  bawah”  (trickle down)  kepada masyarakat luas dalam bentuk peker‐ jaan  dan  kesempatan‐kesempatan  ekonomi  lainnya,  atau  terciptanya  syarat‐syarat  yang  diperlukan  bagi  distribusi  manfaat‐manfaat  ekonomi dan sosial yang lebih luas.  masalah‐masalah  seperti  kemiskinan,  pengangguran,  distribusi  pendapatan  dan  pencemaran  lingkungan  dianggap  soal  kedua,  yang  penting  adalah  menyelesaikan  tugas‐tugas pertumbuhan dulu. arsyad (1988)  menyatakan  pemikir‐pemikir  pembangunan  dari mazhab ekonomi neoklasik dan struktu‐ ralis  yang  dipelopori  oleh  robert  solow  (massachussets  institute  of  technology)  dan  trevor  swan  (australia  national  university)  mempunyai pemahaman yang serupa, bahwa  “capital accumulation, labor, and technology pro‐ gress are the very crucial components to accelerate  development.” ketiga hal tersebut merupakan  kekuatan  pendorong  utama,  yang  dapat  menggerakkan  proses  transformasi  struktu‐ ral. proses ini mengandaikan adanya lompa‐ tan pembangunan yang semula berbasis per‐ tanian ke pembangunan yang berbasis indus‐ tri.  industrialisasi  akan  menyerap  tenaga  kerja  dalam  jumlah  banyak,  yang  menjadi  salah satu elemen vital dalam proses produk‐ si.  bila  proses  produksi  berjalan  baik,  maka  pendapatan nasional pun akan meningkat.  perdebatan  mengenai  teori  pembangu‐ nan ini telah dikritik  juga oleh para pemikir  ekonomi  lain  antara  lain  oleh   dudley seers  dalam  the  meaning  of  development  (1969)  mencoba  menggugat  apa  yang  disebut  “the  growth  fetishism  of  development  theory.”  bagi  dudley  seers,  makna  paling  hakiki  pemba‐ ngunan  itu  bukan  semata  peningkatan  pen‐ dapatan  per  kapita,  melainkan  pemerataan  distribusi  pendapatan,  penurunan  pengang‐ guran,  pembebasan  kemiskinan,  dan  peng‐ hapusan ketidakadilan. keempat isu ini jauh  lebih  mendasar  yang  harus  diselesaikan  dalam  proses  pembangunan,  sebab  semua‐ nya  itu  menjadi  masalah  kritikal  yang  me‐ nyangkut harkat dan martabat kemanusiaan.  dengan  kata  lain,  peningkatan  pendapatan  yang  hanya  dinikmati  oleh  sekelompok  masyarakat tertentu tidak berarti sama sekali,  bila di sebagian masyarakat yang lain  justru  dijumpai  fakta  kemiskinan  dan  ketidakadi‐ lan.  menurut  pengalaman  banyak  negara  berkembang,  kesenjangan  ekonomi  yang  ta‐ jam justru menjadi faktor pemicu munculnya  kekacauan sosial akibat gerakan protes, per‐ tikaian  etnis,  dan  konflik  kelas  yang  sulit  dikendalikan. meksiko dan brazil di amerika  latin, rwanda dan burundi di afrika, serta  india, sri lanka, dan tentu saja indonesia di  asia  adalah  sebagian  dari  contoh  empirik  yang memberi pelajaran berharga.  perkembangan  pemikiran  mengenai  mampukah pdb hijau ... (suryanto)  101 pembangunan  pada  akhirnya  sampai  pada  konsep pembangunan berkelanjutan (sustain‐ able development). konsep yang dikemukakan  dalam  gambar  1  adalah  kelanjutan  dari  pe‐ mikiran‐pemikiran  pembangunan  ekonomi  yang  sudah  ada.  banyak  pemikiran  yang  sepakat  bahwa  pembangunan  ekonomi  me‐ nimbulkan  trade off antara kepentingan eko‐ nomi dan ekologi.  apabila para pemikir pembangunan eko‐ nomi  sudah  menempatkan  pembangunan  berkelanjutan  sebagai  tujuannya  maka  per‐ tanyaan yang muncul adalah model pemba‐ ngunan yang akan digunakan. jika mengacu  pada  meier  dan  stiglitz  (2002)  berarti  pem‐ bangunan  berkelanjutan  adalah  akhir  dari  sebuah  proses  panjang.  sementara  yang  ha‐ rus  diraih  dulu  adalah  pertumbuhan  eko‐ nomi yang  tinggi baru kemudian berpindah  pada  tahap‐tahap  berikutnya.  bagaimana  dengan kondisi lingkungan itu sendiri? sam‐ pai  kapankah    lingkungan  mampu  menjadi  supplier  untuk  memenuhi  permintaan  (de‐ mand) kebutuhan manusia?  model  pembangunan  yang  mengejar  pertumbuhan  ekonomi.  banyak  pendapat  yang menyatakan bahwa  jika pembangunan  didasarkan  pada  pertumbuhan  maka  pada  akhirnya  tujuan  akhir  pembangunan  tidak  akan  tercapai.  pemenuhan  kebutuhan  bagi  manusia  ini  sebenarnya  juga  dalam  rangka  untuk  mencapai  kesejahteraan  manusia.  dalam  ekonomi  dikenal  tiga  sistem  penca‐ paian  kesejahteraan  tersebut  yaitu  sistem  kapitalistik, sosialis‐komunis, dan tradisional.  dari ketiga sistem tersebut hanya sistem ka‐ pitalistiklah yang dianut oleh sebagian besar  manusia selaku penduduk bumi.   kapitalistik adalah sistem ekonomi yang  mengutamakan  kepemilikan  modal  sebagai   dasar  bergeraknya  roda  ekonomi.  dengan  memiliki  modal  maka  individu  dapat  mela‐ kukan  apa  pun  untuk  mencapai  tujuan  hi‐ dupnya.  bahkan,  manusia  dapat  memenuhi  kebutuhan  hidupnya  tidak  hanya  dalam  jangka  waktu  puluhan  tahun.  modal  me‐ mungkinkan  individu  ini  dapat  menguasai  kegiatan‐kegiatan  ekonomi,  mulai  kegiatan  produksi, distribusi, atau bahkan konsumsi.   dampak  bagi  ekonomi,  sistem  kapitalis  menyebabkan  manusia  untuk  berperilaku  efisien. pengertian efisien ini adalah penggu‐ naan  sumber  daya  ekonomi  pada  tingkat  yang optimal untuk mencapai tujuan terten‐ tu.  dengan  efisien  maka  individu  dapat  memaksimalkan  kepuasan  (utilitas)  jika  individu berperilaku sebagai konsumen dan  dapat  memaksimalkan  keuntungan  (profit)  jika individu berperilaku sebagai produsen.  suhartono  (2005)  juga  menyebut  pada  masa  kini  sistem  kehidupan  sosial  didomi‐ nasi oleh paham ekonomi kapitalistik. paham  kapitalistik mendorong sifat kompetitif prag‐ matis perilaku manusia. sifat kompetitif  ini‐ lah  yang  mendorong  efisiensi  sebagai  dam‐ pak  positifnya  dan  melahirkan  sifat  kesera‐ kahan  manusia  sebagai  dampak  negatifnya,  sehingga  mendorong  pola  dan  sikap  dan  sumber: gerald meier & joseph stiglitz, frontiers of development economics (2002)   gambar 1. evolusi pemikiran pembangunan (tujuan)  jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 99 ‐ 109 102  perilaku hedonistik sekular. persaingan yang  bersifat monopolistik terlegitimasi baik secara  formal  maupun  kultural.  kini,  keserakahan  mendorong  terbentuknya  keserakahan  hu‐ kum, politik, dan keserakahan sosial lainnya,  khususnya  bidang  pendidikan,  kebudayaan,  dan spiritual keagamaan.   paham egosentrisme sangat kental terasa  dalam  sistem  kapitalis  karena  sistem  ini  mengajarkan  individu  menjadi  individualis.  sistem  kapitalis  menganggap  manusia  dan  sumber daya alam adalah alat untuk menca‐ pai  tujuan  hidupnya.  ukuran  materialistik  menjadi kiblat utama bagi manusia kapitalis.  paham  ini  telah menyebar ke seluruh dunia  termasuk  di  indonesia.  menurut  suhartono  (2005)  dampak  kapitalisme  menyebabkan  dunia  seolah  terbagi  menjadi  dua,  yaitu  mereka  yang  berebut  kemewahan,  dan  mereka yang menahan  lapar dahaga. kedua  kelompok  tersebut  sama‐sama  menggerus  lingkungan  hidup  menjadi  semakin  tidak  harmoni.  tujuan mengejar pertumbuhan ekonomi  dengan  menciptakan  stabilitas  ekonomi  makro sering trade off dengan menjaga keles‐ tarian alam. kondisi tersebut diperparah oleh  era  perdagangan  bebas  di  mana  indonesia  adalah  salah  satu  bagiannya.  tidak  mudah  melepaskan  pengaruh  dunia  internasional  terhadap  perekonomian  domestik.    keseim‐ bangan ekonomi dan ekologi menjadi tujuan  ke dua setelah pertumbuhan ekonomi.  kon‐ disi  seperti  inilah  yang  menurut  djojohadi‐ kusumo  (1981:  60)  disebut  sebagai  “krisis  lingkungan”,  yakni  gejala  akibat  kesalahan  atau  kekurangan  dalam  pola  dan  cara  pengelolaan sumber kebutuhan hidup manu‐ sia.  gejala‐gejala  tersebut  dianggap  sebagai  tekanan  krisis  yang  membahayakan  kelang‐ sungan hidup manusia, seperti ancaman ter‐ hadap kejernihan udara dan sumber air, ter‐ hadap  bahan‐bahan  makanan,  terhadap  ke‐ langsungan  produktivitas  kekayaan  alam  flora dan fauna, dan sebagainya.   apabila  kekuatan  ekologis  ini  telah  sedemikian  melemah,  maka  kesejahteraan  yang  dicapai  manusia  menjadi  tidak  ber‐ kemampuan daya  dukung lahan  polusi limits to growth pertumbuhan pembangunan 1900  2100 sumber: d.h. meadows, d.l. meadows, j. randers and w.w. behrens, the limits  to growth  (dalam brian  j.l. berry, edgar c. conkling and d. michael ray, the  global economy  : resource use, locational choice and international trade, new  jersey : prentice hall, 1993) (dimodifikasi)    gambar 2. model limits to growth dennis meadows   mampukah pdb hijau ... (suryanto)  103 makna.  sebab,  kesejahteraan  tadi  harus  di‐ bayar  dengan  recovery  cost  untuk  memulih‐ kan  dan  menjaga  kelestarian  lingkungan  –  dan  bahkan  social  cost  yang  sulit  dihitung  tingkat kerugiannya. dengan kata  lain, trade  off  yang  ditimbulkan  dari  proses  pemba‐ ngunan sangat  tidak seimbang dengan  ting‐ kat kemakmuran ekonomis yang diraihnya.  kebijakan yang dijalankan tersebut tidak  hanya  terjadi  di  pemerintah  pusat  namun  juga  di  pemerintahan  daerah.  era  otonomi  daerah  memungkinkan  daerah  memacu  peningkatan  pad  daerahnya.  peningkatan  pad  ini  pun  sering  kali  trade  off  dengan  keseimbangan  ekonomi  dan  ekologinya,  sebagai contoh: kerusakan lingkungan akibat  penambangan  timah  di  provinsi  kepulauan  bangka  belitung,  penambangan  pasir  putih  di  kepulauan  riau,  penambangan  emas  di  buyat, dan lain‐lain.  dampak pembangunan ekonomi terha‐ dap lingkungan. pembangunan merupakan  upaya  sadar  untuk  mengelola  dan  meman‐ faatkan  sumber  daya  guna  meningkatkan  mutu  kehidupan  rakyat.  pertumbuhan  eko‐ nomi yang merupakan indikator keberhasilan  suatu  pembangunan  seringkali  digunakan  untuk  mengukur  kualitas  hidup  manusia   sehingga  semakin  tinggi  nilai  pertumbuhan  ekonomi  maka  semakin  tinggi  pula  taraf  hidup manusia. semakin cepat pertumbuhan  ekonomi akan semakin banyak barang sum‐ berdaya yang diperlukan dalam proses pro‐ duksi yang pada gilirannya akan mengurangi  ketersediaan sumberdaya alam sebagai bahan  baku yang tersimpan pada sumberdaya alam  yang  ada.  jadi  semakin  menggebunya  pem‐ bangunan  ekonomi  dalam  rangka  mening‐ katkan  taraf  hidup  masyarakat  berarti  semakin  banyak  barang  sumberdaya  yang  diambil dari dalam bumi dan akan semakin  sedikitlah  jumlah  persediaan  sumberdaya  alam tersebut. di samping itu pembangunan  ekonomi  yang  cepat  dibarengi  dengan  pembangunan  instalasi‐instalasi  pengolah  maka  akan  tercipta  pula  pencemaran  yang  merusak sumberdaya alam dan juga manusia  itu sendiri.  pertanyaan yang hendak dijawab dengan  paper  ini  adalah  apakah  pembangunan  eko‐ nomi mempunyai manfaat positif atau justru  memberi  dampak  negatif  terhadap  lingku‐ ngan?  beberapa  bukti  empirik  yang  telah  dilakukan  oleh  stern  et  al  (1996)  dan  ekins  (1997). efek dari pertumbuhan ekonomi  ter‐ hadap kualitas lingkungan masih dalam kon‐ troversi. satu sisi menempatkan dalam posisi  sumber: panayotou, (1993) dalam stagl (1999)  gambar 3. kurva lingkungan kuznets (environmental kuznets curve ekc)  jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 99 ‐ 109 104  mendukung  hipotesis  bahwa  pertumbuhan  ekonomi  akan  menyebabkan  tekanan  terha‐ dap  lingkungan  berkurang  yang  didukung  oleh  ”environmental  kuznets  curve”  (ekc),  pendapat yang lain adalah pertumbuhan eko‐ nomi  akan  menyebabkan  daya  lingkungan  menurun kualitasnya.  pada pendapatan  level  rendah, dampak  lingkungan  masih  rendah  karena  aktifitas  ekonomi  masih  rendah  dan  juga  pembua‐ ngan  limbah  yang  merugikan  lingkungan  masih terbatas. seiring dengan pertumbuhan  ekonomi  yang  terjadi  seperti  intensifikasi  pertanian  dan  take  off  nya  industrialisasi  menyebabkan deplesi lingkungan khususnya  pada sumber daya alam tidak terbarui. pada  tingkat  pembangunan  yang  lebih  tinggi,  terjadi  perubahan  struktural  terhadap  infor‐ masi  baik  pada  industri  maupun  jasa  dan  juga  pada  perhatian  masalah  lingkungan,  penegakan aturan tentang lingkungan.  namun  pendapat  tersebut  di  atas  men‐ dapat  kritik  baik  secara  konsep  antara  lain  oleh  beghin  dan  portier  (1997),  mereka  me‐ nyatakan  bahwa  reaksi  polutan  tersebut  hanya  dalam  jangka  pendek  tidak  dalam  akumulasi stok polusi seperti co2. pencema‐ ran di air juga tidak sesuai dengan teori ekc  ini (hettige et. al).  lebih lanjut ekc hanya cocok dan sesuai  sebagai  model  pencemaran  untuk  satu  jenis  polutan  dan  tidak  sesuai  kalau  diterapkan  pada beberapa jenis polutan. hal ini dikemu‐ kakan oleh mac‐gillivary (1993) yang menges‐ timasi  dampak  lingkungan  termasuk  emisi‐ emisi  pencemarnya  seperti  co2,  nox,  so2,  air,  limbah cair,  tanah,  intensitas energi dan  lain‐lain. kesimpulannya adalah peningkatan  pendapatan di negara‐negara yang tergabung  dalam  oecd  tidak  secara  otomatis  terjadi  penurunan pencemaran.  sedangkan  pendapat  yang  kedua  me‐ nyatakan  bahwa  lingkungan  akan  semakin  menurun  kualitasnya  karena  semakin  ting‐ ginya  jumlah  penduduk  yang  akan  menye‐ babkan  permintaan  akan  bahan  makanan,  lahan untuk tempat tinggal, dan tumpukkan  sampah  dan  polusi.  meadows  et.  al  (2004)  mengemukakan  kembali  teori  batas‐batas  pertumbuhan  jika  pertumbuhan  ekonomi  yang  dijalankan  tidak  memperhatikan  ma‐ salah‐masalah lingkungan.  gambar  4  menunjukkan  bahwa  sumber  daya  alam  yang  semakin  berkurang,  daya  dukung lingkungan semakin menurun kuali‐ tasnya, tingkat output industri pada awalnya  mencapai  tingkat maksimum pada akhirnya  akan mengalami penurunan. sementara, ting‐ kat polusi meningkat tidak terkendali, mem‐ bumbung  tinggi  ke  atas.  pada  akhirnya  jumlah  penduduk  akan  berkurang  secara  alamiah karena kekurangan makanan.    sumber: meadows et.al (2004)  gambar 4. dampak pertumbuhan ekonomi terhadap kesejahteraan  mampukah pdb hijau ... (suryanto)  105 dampak  disharmoni  lingkungan  ter‐ hadap  kesejahteraan  hidup.  jika  tujuan  utama  manusia  adalah  mencapai  kesejahte‐ raan hidup maka apa sebenarnya kesejahte‐ raan yang diinginkan  tersebut semakin  jauh  dari  harapan.  manusia  dengan  kapitalisme‐ nya berupaya mencapai tingkat pertumbuhan  ekonomi yang tinggi namun  jika lingkungan  hidup  dibiarkan  rusak  maka  pembangunan  yang  dilakukan  tersebut  menjadi  semakin  tidak bermakna.  ilustrasi  sederhana,  pada  saat  lingku‐ ngan  hidup  masih  asri,  manusia  berniat  mengubah  lingkungan  sedemikian  rupa  untuk  memuaskan  kebutuhannya.  mereka  mengeksploitasi  kekayaan  alam  dengan  mengesampingkan  keseimbangan  ekologi,  pada  akhirnya  pertumbuhan  ekonomi  cepat  melaju.  mereka  berharap  dengan  ekonomi  yang  berkembang  cepat  memungkinkan  mereka  untuk  melakukan  peningkatan  kua‐ litas  hidupnya.  namun  benarkah  kualitas  hidup bisa dipenuhi dengan kerusakan ling‐ kungan hidup dari akibat kebijakan pemba‐ ngunan tersebut. contoh kasus yang dikemu‐ kakan oleh  irianto (2008) dalam artikel yang  dimuat di harian kompas tanggal 2 januari  2008 menyebutkan bencana banjir yang lebih  dashyat akan terjadi pada bulan januari 2008.  argumen  yang  dikemukakan  didasarkan  pada  prakiraan  bmg,  hujan  dengan  inten‐ sitas  lebih  tinggi disertai gelombang pasang  laut berpeluang terjadi. kondisi  ini diperbu‐ ruk dengan degradasi kualitas daerah aliran  sungai yang bergeser dari kritis menjadi bere‐ siko tinggi.  pendapatan  nasional  per  kapita  akan  meningkat  tidak  akan  menjamin  manusia  bisa  mencapai  kesejahteraan.  pendapatan  individu yang tinggi tapi manusia tetap saja  tidak  bisa  menikmati  kualitas  hidup  yang  baik.  pola  pikir  kapitalis  jika  digambarkan   tampak pada gambar 5.  peran  iptek  pada  awalnya  diciptakan  untuk  digunakan  untuk  mengeksploitasi  sumber  daya  alam  dan  lingkungan  sesuai  dengan  kebutuhan  manusia.  namun  bagi  manusia  kapitalis,  iptek  dimanfaatkan  secara  objektif  apa  adanya,  dengan  tanpa  mempertimbangkan  hakikat  ontologis  dan  etis (suhartono, 2005). pada gambar 5 di atas  terlihat  bahwa  para  pemilik  modal  mampu  membeli dan menggunakan teknologi untuk  semakin memperbesar kekayaannya, semen‐ tara  sisi yang lain kaum miskin/pekerja tetap  dengan keterbatasannya. kondisi ini menga‐ kibatkan eksploitasi sumber daya alam oleh  para pemilik modal karena keserakahan dan  juga  oleh  para  kaum  miskin/pekerja  karena  keterbatasan  mereka.  sekali  lagi  lingkungan  menjadi  pihak  yang  dirugikan  oleh  kedua  belah pihak.  mengapa keserakahan dan  juga keterba‐ tasan  para  pekerja/kaum  miskin  menyebab‐ kan degradasi  lingkungan? watak keseraka‐ han  adalah  watak  bawaan  dari  manusia,  dalam sistem kapitalis sifat bawaan tersebut  dibiarkan  berkembang  tanpa  ada  upaya  untuk  dikendalikan.  peran  media  yang  menyajikan  kesombongan  dan  kemewahan  akhirnya membuat para kaum miskin/pekerja  merasa  termarginalisasi  dan  merasa  dirugi‐ kan tapi tidak berdaya.  gaya  hidup  yang  terlanjur  hedonistik  inilah yang mempercepat kerusakan  lingku‐ ngan. arti dan fungsi kebutuhan pokok ber‐ geser menjadi sekunder dan sebaliknya kebu‐ tuhan sekunder berfungsi sebagai kebutuhan  pokok. suhartono  (2005)  memberikan  contoh  pengadaan  makanan  dan  minuman  dari  kesehatan menjadi kelezatan. model pakaian,  model  perumahan,  model  peralatan  hidup  lainnya berubah menaidi kemewahan. inilah  yang  menjadi  ukuran  harga  diri  seseorang  sebagai manusia.  jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 99 ‐ 109 106  produk  domestik  bruto  hijau  (pdb  hijau/green  gdp).  pembangunan  ekonomi  dalam arti sempit dapat diukur dari pertum‐ buhan ekonomi. pertumbuhan ekonomi diu‐ kur  dari  pertambahan  pdb.  jika  pdb  me‐ ningkat maka dapat diartikan bahwa  terjadi  pertumbuhan ekonomi. upaya meningkatkan  pdb  tanpa  memperhatikan  masalah  lingku‐ ngan sering disebut sebagai pdb coklat atau  (brown gdp). di sebagian besar negara‐nega‐ ra dunia ketiga pembangunan ekonomi ma‐ sih sering diukur dari pdb coklat ini.  jika tujuan akhir dari pembangunan ada‐ lah kesejahteraan maka perlu dipertanyakan  kembali  apakah  tujuan  pembangunan  terse‐ but dapat dicapai dari peningkatan pdb saja.  peningkatan pdb berarti kapasitas produksi  nasional meningkat secara agregatif. perma‐ salahan  apakah  peningkatan  kapasitas  pro‐ duksi  tersebut  ternyata  menimbulkan  masa‐ lah‐masalah  degradasi  lingkungan  dalam  metode pdb coklat hal tersebut tidak diper‐ hitungkan.  pdb  hijau  adalah  pengembangan  lebih  gambar 5. hubungan antara sistem ekonomi kapitalis dan degradasi lingkungan  mampukah pdb hijau ... (suryanto)  107 lanjut dari pdb coklat, pdb hijau adalah ko‐ reksi  dari  konsep  pdb  coklat  yang  tidak  mengakomodasi  kegagalan  pasar.  model  pdb  coklat  adalah  representasi  dari  teori  ekonomi  pasar,  menurut  suparmoko  dan  maria  (2000)  produsen  harus  membayar  se‐ mua biaya material dan jasa yang digunakan  untuk  memproduksi  output  termasuk  pem‐ buangan  limbah.  secara  sama  konsumen  yang membeli barang  tersebut  juga memba‐ yar semua biaya tersebut termasuk pembua‐ ngan limbah. dalam dunia nyata hal tersebut  tidak berlaku, pihak produsen maupun kon‐ sumen  sama‐sama  tidak  mau  menanggung  dampak  dari  tindakan  ekonominya.  dalam  teori  ekonomi  inilah  yang  disebut  oleh  eks‐ ternalitas.   beberapa  kelemahan  pdb  coklat  dalam  mengukur  kesejahteraan  (suparmoko,  2006):  (1)  mengukur  kegiatan  ekonomi  bukan  kesejahteraan ekonomi, (2) biaya pencegahan  kerusakan  dan  perbaikan  lingkungan  dihi‐ tung  sebagai  pendapatan,  (3)  berkurangnya  sumber daya alam dan rusaknya lingkungan  tidak tampak, dan (4) struktur perekonomian  bersifat semu.  berdasarkan hal  tersebut pbb dan world  bank telah membangun sebuah alternatif indi‐ kator  secara  makro  dari  perubahan  lingku‐ ngan  dan  pendapatan  dan  output.  sebagai  hasil dari usaha tersebut statistical division of  the  united  nations  (unstat),  mempublika‐ sikan  handbook  system  of  national  account  (sna)  pada  tahun  1993  yang  menyediakan  konsep  dasar  dalam  mengimplementasikan  system for integrated environmental and econo‐ mic  accounting  (seea)  dan  perubahan  ling‐ kungan pada gdp (green gdp) yang mengi‐ lustrasikan hubungan antara lingkungan ala‐ miah  dan  perekonomian.  menanggapi  reko‐ mendasi dari pbb, economic planning agency  of  japan  (epa)  menerbitkan  untuk  pertama  kali  pada  tahun  1995  estimasi  seea  dan  green gdp untuk tahun 1985 dan tahun 1990.   dalam  definisi  tersebut  dapat  difahami  bahwa  konsep  pembangunan  berkelanjutan  didirikan  atau  didukung  oleh  3  pilar,  yaitu  ekonomi, sosial, dan lingkungan. ketiga pen‐ dekatan tersebut bukanlah pendekatan yang      sumber: askary, 2005  gambar 6. pilar pembangunan berkelanjutan  jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 99 ‐ 109 108  berdiri  sendiri‐sendiri,  tetapi  saling  terkait  dan  mempengaruhi  satu  sama  lain.  secara  skematis, keterkaitan antara 3 komponen di‐ maksud  dapat  digambarkan  pada  bagan  di  atas (munasinghe‐cruz, 1995).  kesimpulan  keberadaan  pdb  hijau  setidaknya  menjadi  media  untuk  mengurangi  tekanan  terhadap  lingkungan.  karakteristik  pdb  hijau  yang  mengakomodasi  degradasi  lingkungan  dan  deplesi sumber daya alam akan mengoreksi  kelemahan‐kelemahan  dari  pdb  coklat.  jika  pdb  hijau  diberlakukan  maka  apa  yang  dikhawatirkan limits to growth dan penuru‐ nan  indeks  kesejahteraan  bisa  ditunda.  diskusi  mengenai  mode‐model  pembangu‐ nan ekonomi telah menempatkan pembangu‐ nan  berkelanjutan  sebagai  tujuan.  namun  apakah skenario yang akan ditempuh memi‐ liki konsekuensi‐konsekuensi tersendiri.   dua pilihan tersebut adalah sebagai beri‐ kut:  (1)  pilihan  menggunakan  pdb  coklat.  pilihan  menggunakan  pdb  coklat  bisa  juga  disebut  pilihan  kebijakan  ex  post,  kebijakan  mengutamakan  pertumbuhan  ekonomi  ke‐ mudian    menjadikan  masyarakat  sejahtera.  sistem  ekonomi  yang  menerapkan  pilihan  kebijakan ini adalah sistem kapitalisme. pili‐ han ini memungkinkan pertumbuhan ekono‐ mi  tumbuh  cepat  karena  mengesampingkan  konstrain lingkungan. dampak‐dampak ling‐ kungan  yang  ditimbulkan  dapat  diatasi  dengan  tingginya pendapatan. namun yang  perlu  dicatat  adalah  sering  kali  pilihan  kebijakan  ex  post  ini  menyebabkan  deplesi  sda dan degradasi  lingkungan yang parah.  biaya recovery jauh lebih besar daripada man‐ faat yang diperoleh dari mengejar pertumbu‐ han ekonomi. kesejahteraan masyarakat pada  pilihan  ini  sering  diukur  dengan  ukuran  material kapitalistik.  (2)  pilihan  menggunakan  pdb  hijau.  pilihan  menerapkan  pdb  hijau  menyebabkan  per‐ tumbuhan  ekonomi  menjadi  melambat  di  banding jika menggunakan pdb coklat. pdb  hijau  memiliki  konstrain  daya  lingkungan  karena  tujuan  penerapan  pdb  hijau  adalah  pembangunan  yang  berkelanjutan.  tingkat  degradasi  lingkungan akan menurun seiring  dengan peningkatan kesadaran akan  lingku‐ ngan. biaya recovery yang dibutuhkan rendah  dan  bahkan  pada  tingkat  yang  nol  karena  biaya recovery sudah diperhitungkan sebagai  gambar 7. pilihan menggunakan pdb coklat    gambar 8. pilihan menggunakan pdb hijau  mampukah pdb hijau ... (suryanto)  109 biaya per tahun dalam pdb hijau. kesejahte‐ raan masyarakat tercapai dengan melakukan  redefinisi mengenai kesejahteraan tersebut.  daftar pustaka  arrow, k., bolin, b., costanza, r., dasgupta, p., folke, c., holling, c. s., jansson, b.-o., levin, s., mäler, k.-g., perrings, c., & pimentel, d. 1995. economic growth, carrying capacity, and the environment. science, 268, 520-521. arsyad, lincoln, 1988. ekonomi pembangunan,  yogyakarta:  bagian  penerbitan  stie  ykpn.  askary, m. 2003. “valuasi ekonomi dalam ke‐ bijakan analisis mengenai dampak lingkungan hidup”. dipresentasikan pada seminar nasional iii neraca sumber daya alam dan lingkungan di baturraden, purwokerto pada 12-14 desember 2003. beckerman, w. 1992. economic growth and the environment: whose growth! whose environment? world development, 20, 481-496. bhagwati, j. 1993. the case for free trade, scientific american (pp. 42-49). daly, h. e. 1977. steady-state economics: the economics of biophysical equilibrium and moral growth. san francisco: w.h. freeman. djojohadikusumo, sumitro, 1981. indonesia dalam perkembangan dunia: kini dan masa datang, jakarta: lp3es. ekins, p. 1997. the kuznets curve for the envi‐ ronment and economic growth: examining the evidence. environment and planning a, pp. 29. georgescu-roegen, n. 1971. the entropy law and the economic process. cambridge, mass: harvard university press. hettige, h., lucas, r. e. b., & wheeler, d. 1992. the toxic intensity of industrial production: global patterns, trends and trade policy. american economic review, 82, 478-481. hettige, h., mani, m., & wheeler, d. 1997. industrial pollution in economic development: kuznets revisited. washington, d.c.: world bank, development research group. munasinghe, m and cruz, w. 1995. “economy wide policies and the environment: lesson from experience”, world bank environment paper no 10. panayotou, t. 1993. empirical tests and policy analysis of environmental degradation at different stages of economic development. geneva: international labor office, technology and employment programme. stagl, sigrid, 1999. delinking economic growth from environmental degradation? a literature survey on the environmental kuznets curve hypothesis, wirtschaftsuniversität wien (vienna university of economics and business administration). wiena. stern, d. i., common, m. s., & barbier, e. b. 1996. economic growth and environmental degradation: the environmental kuznets curve and sustainable development. world development, 24, 1151-1160. suhartono, suparlan. 2005. filsafat ilmu pengetahuan, jogjakarta: ar ruzz. suparmoko. 2006. pdrb hijau (konsep dan metodologi), materi disampaikan pada pelatihan penyusunan pdrb hijau dan perencanaan kehutanan berbasis penataan ruang, jakarta. suparmoko dan maria r suparmoko, 2000. “ekonomika lingkungan”, edisi pertama, yogyakarta: bpfe. todaro. m.p .1994. pembangunan ekonomi di dunia ketiga. jakarta: penerbit erlangga. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 22 nomor 2, oktober 2021 article type: research paper debit and credit cards: money velocity risks hari setia putra*, mutia huljannah, ali anis, and zul azhar abstract: payment system innovations as the efforts to meet the people’s needs have recently risen several new non-cash-based payment instruments, such as card-based payment transactions. the upheaval of card-based non-cash transactions has indirectly shifted the role of cash in the society. this research aims to see the effect of cards as payment instruments represented by both debit and credit cards on money velocity in indonesia within the period of 2016m1 to 2020m6 using the vecm (vector error correction model) analysis method. the research findings show that long-run card-based payment instrument has a significant effect on money circulation in indonesia. it means that money velocity in indonesia is not constant. money velocity is a key concept in monetary theories and an important element for monetary analysis. therefore, it is important for central bank to monitor and understand the money velocity trends to provide longterm benefits. the research findings are also expected to provide an additional insight to policymakers, especially central bank as monetary authority doe to the possibly occurring risks caused by the money circulation instability in economy. keywords: debit card; credit card; money velocity; vector error correction model jel classification: g18, g23, g28 introduction financial innovation has received a lot of attention from financial literacy in the last few decades (fiordelisi et al., 2010). the development of financial innovation, especially in the payment system, has encouraged banks throughout the world to make innovations resulting in new non-cash-based financial and payment systems, such as card-based payment instruments in the forms of automatic teller machine (atm) as well as credit, debit, and prepaid cards. the regulation related to card-based transactions was first issued by bank indonesia at the end of 2004. the provisions related to cardbased payment instruments have been regulated in bank indonesia regulation no.7/52/pbi/2005. however, this regulation was integrated with the regulations for implementing the electronic money activities. until 2009, the regulation on card-based payment instruments was officially separated from the electronic money regulation and a new regulation was made in bank indonesia regulation no. 11/11/pbi/2009 on the operation of card-based payment instrument activities (bank indonesia, 2009). affiliation: department of economics, faculty of economics, universitas negeri padang, west sumatra, indonesia *correspondence: hari.putra@fe.unp.ac.id this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v22i2.11208 citation: putra, h.s., huljannah, m., anis, a., & azhar, z. (2021). debit and credit cards: money velocity risks. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 22(2), 228-243. article history received: 24 feb 2021 revised: 29 apr 2021 18 jun 2021 13 jul 2021 11 sep 2021 accepted: 20 sep 2021 https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?user=zbihfwkaaaaj&hl=en https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?user=1phab8maaaaj&hl=en https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?user=xycwtmiaaaaj&hl=en http://ep.fe.unp.ac.id/ http://ep.fe.unp.ac.id/ http://ep.fe.unp.ac.id/ mailto:hari.putra@fe.unp.ac.id http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/11208 https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v22i1.7836&domain=pdf https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v22i1.11208&domain=pdf putra, huljannah, anis, & azhar debit and credit cards: money velocity risks jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 229 atm card is a card-based payment instrument used to make cash withdrawals and/or transfers of funds in which the cardholder's obligations are should be immediately fulfilled and by directly reducing the cardholder's deposits at the authorized bank or non-bank institution to raise funds under the prevailing laws and regulations. conversely, a debit card is a card-based payment instrument used to make payments for obligations from various economic activities, including shopping transactions, in which the cardholder's obligations should be immediately fulfilled by directly reducing the cardholder's deposits at the authorized bank or non-bank institution to raise funds following the provisions of the applicable laws. the non-cash payment instruments have recently developed and increasingly been used by the public. this fact shows that non-cash payment services provided by bank and nonbank institutions, in the process of sending funds, clearing operators, and settlement systems are already available and possibly held in indonesia. it is assumed that the level of public interest in using non-cash payment instruments can affect the demands for cash and stability of money circulation in a country. this is confirmed by (alih et al., 2018; rahayu & nugroho, 2020) explaining that more sophisticated payment system makes people use electronic money more and more. this has an impact on the continuously decreasing use of cash and checks in the society. the rapid development of technology has changed the role and function of money in which when making a transaction, a person no longer needs cash but he/she can use alternative payment instruments to replace cash, such as credit and debit cards. in the study conducted by (pandhit, 2020), to stimulate an efficient economy and expand the banking activities of indonesian people is to perform financial inclusion. the indicators used are the ownership of credit and debit card as well as domestic credit ratios. the recommendation given is that the government in the asean 8 regions should encourage and facilitate the expansion and acceleration of access to financial technology to the public and massively and fairly accelerate the implementation of financial inclusion for wider communities. this phenomenon makes money easily transferred and changed from hands to hands and makes digital money slowly replace cash (reiss, 2018). financial innovations, such as the issuance of credit and debit cards can reduce the stability of money velocity. (ghasani, 2015; lintangsari et al., 2018) explained that non-cash payment transactions can affect the money velocity in which the increasing volume of non-cash payment transactions made by the society will increase the money velocity. reaffirming the effect of financial innovation on money velocity. (sarwono, 2003) explains that the rapid development in financial sector reduces the ability of central bank to control the amount or quantity of money in circulation. due to the rapid innovation of financial products and processes, the creation of money in circulation will increasingly occur outside the monetary authority. this development causes the stability of money demand equation, multipliers, and velocity to be disturbed. many countries have implemented card-based non-cash payment systems for transactions, including indonesia. the popularity of card payment instruments can be seen from a large number of card payment transactions in indonesia. based on graph 1, it is known that card-based payment transactions can fluctuate over time. even though in putra, huljannah, anis, & azhar debit and credit cards: money velocity risks jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 230 the previous period the total card-based non-cash transactions increased, a dramatic decrease may still occur in the next period, and vice versa. figure 1 development of card-based non-cash payment transactions in indonesia (million rupiahs) source: bank indonesia the positive movement trend of total card-based non-cash transactions, indirectly capturing the phenomenon that people's habits in transactions have recently changed leading to a cashless society in which the role of cash has slowly started fading in the society. some elements of central bank policy, such as restrictions on cash demand and money circulation in indonesia will be disrupted. the findings of non-cash payment risks on monetary and financial stability are also highlighted in the following literature. as stated by (alih et al., 2018), neglecting financial innovation can lead to specification errors in determining the money demand levels. unstable money velocity, unpredictable changes in money demands, and problems, such as a biased money demand outcome may occur. supported by (choi, 2019; dunne & kasekende, 2018; xu et al., 2020), financial innovation is found as an important variable in determining and harming money demand. according to the research conducted by (wei, 2018), the existence of continuous financial innovation will affect people’s lifestyles and a country’s economic growth, especially the distribution of third-party payments to cash circulation. the substitutional effect generated by this payment innovation is significant and at the same time, decreases the cash demand, increases the bank's commercial credit creation ability, money supply, and accelerates money circulation money in economy. in addition, (jiang & shao, 2020) explains that the amount of money in circulation is a significant part of central bank's balance sheet, while the decreasing cash demand will have important implications for seigniorage income, independence, and the ability of central bank to conduct the monetary policy. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 development of total card-based non-cash payment transactions in indonesia credit card transaction debit card transaction putra, huljannah, anis, & azhar debit and credit cards: money velocity risks jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 231 the development of card-based non-cash payment instruments, such as atms and debit cards with savings as the underlying causes a shift in the function of savings from deposits which cannot be withdrawn any time to become those withdrawn any time, similar to the demand deposits. thus, it is necessary to consider the classification of savings using atm or debit card as a part of narrow money (m1) in the demand deposit category instead of m2. inaccurate classification of monetary quantities can have implications for errors in the formulation and implementation of monetary policy using monetary quantities as the operational targets (pramono et al., 2006). money velocity is used to measure the circulation rate of one money unit used to make transactions in economy. money velocity is a measure of how many times an average currency unit is used to buy goods and services in a certain period (aliyu & dodo, 2021). the notion connects the size of economic activity to a particular money supply and one element determining inflation is money exchange rate. central bank can control the price (p) by targeting m. this is the importance of monitoring and ensuring the money velocity. for central banks which use the monetary amounts as their operational and final target, money velocity is an important indicator required more attention. money is a measure of number of times related to the average unit of currency used in the transaction process over a certain period. this concept relates the measure of economic activity to the money supply and money exchange rate. money velocity must be predictable and stable. money velocity is used to measure the circulation rate of one money unit used to make transactions in economy. innovations in financial market, such as the issuance of non-cash payment instruments, are believed to reduce the stability of money velocity. from the explanation of money demand theory (mankiw, 2019), it can be concluded that several factors affect the money velocity circulation, including form of institutions and technology in economy affecting the behavior of individuals making transactions, as well as the amount of income, money demand, price level, and interest rates. the existence of financial innovation as a result of rapid development of technology, especially in banking sector, is believed changing people's behavior in transactions. the issuance of card-based non-cash payment instruments is assumed to be one factor reducing the use of cash and increasing the efficiency of transaction settlement time, this, of course, will have an impact on the stability of money velocity and be able to change the function of money demand (gintting et al., 2019). a good understanding on money velocity is important in establishing a credible and targeted monetary policy program. thus, this payment instrument innovation needs special attention from policy-making institutions, such as central bank to pay more attention to the impact of financial innovations and create the targeted monetary policies and actions for the sake of creating stability in a country’s financial system. the calculation of monetary amount related to the progress of non-cash payments needs to be well improved. most previous studies only focused on one payment instrument using a card and there are only limited literatures comparing the effect of all payment instruments using cards (debit and credit card) on money velocity or amount of money in circulation. putra, huljannah, anis, & azhar debit and credit cards: money velocity risks jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 232 thus, further research is needed related to the impact of innovation of payment system using cards in monetary sphere. this is an interesting study to conduct, especially in indonesia, given a large number of people with a fairly consumptive society and classified as an emerging market. money velocity is interesting to study because it is greatly influential related to the effectiveness of monetary policy implementation. in-depth analysis on the impact of payment innovation on money velocity is greatly important to become a reference for monetary authorities in making policies and anticipating the impact of changes in money velocity in economy. one important focus of this research is to find out how money velocity responds to the use of card-based non-cash transaction tools occurring in indonesia. money velocity can be described from the ratio between base money and nominal gross domestic product. therefore, this study aims to determine the effect of using a payment instrument like credit and debit cards on money velocity in indonesia for long and short terms. research method this study examined the impact of payment transactions using cards represented by (credit and debit cards) on money velocity in indonesia, using control variables of interest rates and inflation describing a country’s economic conditions. money velocity is described by the ratio between the amount of money in circulation, in this study taking based money (m0) and nominal gdp. because this research focused on identifying and analyzing the impact of card-based payment transactions on money velocity circulation, the research period started from 2016m1 to 2020m6. the reason was that the researchers tried to get more accurate results under the current situation. the selection of monthly data was expected to provide more accurate results. this study used the secondary data in the form of time series sourced from the websites of bank indonesia and statistics indonesia. to see the effect of independent variables on money velocity circulation in indonesia, several analytical tests were performed including data stationarity test using augmented dickey fuller (adf), determining lag length using the akaike information criterion (aic), and engle-granger co-integration test or augmented engle-granger (aeg) and classical assumption test consisting of normality test, multicollinearity test, heteroscedasticity test, and autocorrelation test. finding that there was cointegration between variables in the study, the appropriate model used in this literature is vecm model. vecm is an econometric model used to determine a variable’s short-run to long-run behavior (anis et al., 2019). in addition, vd and irf tests were also performed. the vecm model to test the effect of card payment on money velocity circulation in this study is: ttiinfi n iri n idci n icdi n it ectv tttt  ++++++= −==== −−−− 16504030200 1111 putra, huljannah, anis, & azhar debit and credit cards: money velocity risks jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 233 where: t v : money velocity, t cd : credit card transactions, t dc : debit card transactions, t r : interest rate, t inf : inflation rate, ni  : constant, t  : error coefficient or noise factor, ni, : long lag, ect : error correction term or error disequilibrium. result and discussion stationarity test results the stationarity test was conducted to see whether or not the data used in this study were stationary. based on the following processed results, it can be seen that all variables in this study were stationary at the first difference level proven by comparing the adf test statistical value which was greater than the critical value. this fact was also supported by the comparison of probability value of each variable that was respectively smaller than the alpha level of 1%, 5%, 10%. table 1 stationarity test results variable unit root test on adf test stat. critical values 5% prob.* information money velocity 1st difference -3.218523 -2.933158 0.0258 stationary debit card 1st difference -14.74305 -2.918778 0.0000 stationary credit card 1st difference -10.04640 -2.918778 0.0000 stationary interest rate 1st difference -5.107005 -2.918778 0.0001 stationary inflation 1st difference -6.783378 -2.918778 0.0000 stationary lag length test results the optimal lag selection is greatly beneficial to overcome the autocorrelation problems. in this study, the optimal lag selection was based on the sequential modified lr test statistical criteria in which the optimal lag was in lag 1. table 2 optimal lag length test results lag lr aic sc hq 0 na -5.992866 -5.660465* -5.920055 1 64.22802* -6.452593* -5.305379 -6.015728* 2 30.89806 -6.244851 -4.141626 -5.443931 3 22.59480 -5.909404 -2.850167 -4.744429 co-integration test results as stated by (engle & granger, 1987), a linear combination of two or more non-stationary time series variables may be stationary. if the combination of these non-stationary variables produces a stationary residual, then the variables are said to be cointegrated. it means that there is a long-run relationship between variables in the vecm system. the next step in vecm estimation is a cointegration test to determine the existence of a longputra, huljannah, anis, & azhar debit and credit cards: money velocity risks jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 234 run relationship between variables to know whether or not the model used is a differentiation level of var model (if there is no cointegration) or of vecm model (if there is cointegration). based on the table 3, it can be seen that the trace statistical value is greater than the critical value with a significance level of 5%. it means that there is cointegration for the data in this study showing that there is a long-run balance between various variables used in this study. the data co-integration shows that the appropriate model to use is the vecm model. table 3 co-integration test results hypothesized ce(s)no. trace statistics critical value of 0.05 prob.** none* 157.3789 69.81889 0.0000 at most 1* 108.9866 47.85613 0.0000 at most 2* 66.13068 29.79707 0.0000 at most 3* 33.11735 15.49471 0.0001 at most 4* 6.864638 3.841466 0.0088 granger’s causality test the granger causality test analysis in this study shows that there was a one-way causality relationship between money velocity (v) and credit card (cd), where money velocity (v) statistically and significantly affected credit card (cd). there was also a two-way causality relationship between money velocity (v) and inflation (inf). meanwhile, debit card and interest rate (r), had a one-way causality relationship, where credit card (cd) statistically and significantly affected interest rate (r). this was indicated by the probability value of each variable which was smaller than the alpha level of 0.05. table 4 granger’s causality test lag null hypothesis f-statistics prob. 1 dc is not granger causing v v is not granger causing dc 0.55872 4.55187 0.4583 0.0378 1 cd is not granger causing v v is not granger causing cd 1.33603 2.92152 0.2532 0.0936 1 r is not granger causing v v is not granger causing r 2.35964 0.15708 0.1308 0.6935 1 inf is not granger causing v v is not granger causing inf 6.33614 7.41758 0.0151 0.0089 1 r is not granger causing dc dc is not granger causing r 0.03869 3.64910 0.8449 0.0618 1 inf is not granger causing dc dc is not granger causing inf 0.95401 0.60941 0.3334 0.4387 1 r is not granger causing cd cd is not granger causing r 0.60601 4.10501 0.4400 0.0481 1 inf is not granger causing cd cd is not granger causing inf 0.12195 0.83422 0.7284 0.3654 1 inf is not granger causing r r is not granger causing inf 0.03466 0.00350 0.8531 0.9531 putra, huljannah, anis, & azhar debit and credit cards: money velocity risks jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 235 vecm model of money velocity in indonesia the vecm test results can be seen in the following table 5 to determine the relationship between debit card transaction, credit card, interest rate, and inflation rate on money velocity in indonesia. it can be seen by comparing the t-statistic value with the t-table. if the t-statistical value is greater than the t-table, it can be said that the independent variable affects the dependent variable. the t-table value is based on the t frequency distribution table, with a df of 46 and a probability of 0.05 in a two-way test of 2.01290. thus, if the t-statistic value is greater than 2.01290, it can be concluded that the independent variable has a significant effect on the dependent variable. based on the table of vecm estimation results for money velocity circulation in indonesian, it can be seen that in a long run, all independent variables had a significant effect on the dependent variable. the variable is credit card transaction (dc), debit card transaction (cd), interest rate (r), and inflation rate. table 6 vecm estimation results on money velocity in indonesia long-run variable coefficient t-statistical value information (t-table = 2.01290) v(-1) 1.000000 log(dc(-1)) 0.580147 4.98344 significant log(cd(-1)) -0.482190 -3.54230 significant r(-1) -0.034948 -4.69717 significant inf(-1) -0.084968 -4.92353 significant c -5.169439 short-run variable coefficient t-statistic value information (t-table = 2.01290) cointeq1 -1.218881 -3.82054 significant d(v(-1)) 0.162657 0.61778 not significant d(v(-2)) 0.116156 0.53761 not significant d(log(dc(-1))) -0.068926 -016549 not significant d(log(dc(-2))) -0.041998 -0.10081 not significant d(log(cd(-1))) 0.002947 0.01058 not significant d(log(cd(-2))) -0.003711 -0.01265 not significant d(r(-1)) -0.065984 -0.99442 not significant d(r(-2)) 0.014946 0.22716 not significant d(inf(-1)) -0.019048 -0.39279 not significant d(inf(-2)) -0.039786 -0.81452 not significant c -0.011819 -0.80876 not significant in a short run, both lag 1 and 2 did not have a variable which significantly affected money velocity circulation in indonesia. however, this relationship had a long-run balance indicated by its negative ect value. furthermore, a long-run equation for money velocity in indonesia can be formed as follows: v = -5.169439 +0.580147logdc – 0.4821190logcd – 0.034948r – 0.084968inf putra, huljannah, anis, & azhar debit and credit cards: money velocity risks jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 236 from the above equation, it can be concluded that several variables had a positive relationship with money velocity circulation, while several other variables had a negative relationship. the variable having the most dominant influence on money velocity circulation in indonesia was debit card transaction, while that having the weakest effect in r was interest rate. it shows that card-based non-cash payment transaction had a higher ability to affect money velocity circulation in indonesia. this condition was in line with that conducted by (lukmanulhakim et al., 2016) in which card-based payment transaction could affect money velocity. if more people use credit and debit cards for transactions, the money velocity in economy will change. the vecm estimation results show that these two non-cash payment instruments had a significant effect on money velocity in indonesia. however, different types of payment instruments had the opposite relationships in affecting money velocity. payment transactions using debit cards had a significant and positive relationship with money velocity. it means that the increasing debit card transactions increase, will be followed by the increasing money velocity in indonesia. 1 percent increase on debit card will be followed by an increase of 0.580147 or 58.01 percent on the value of money velocity. this value indicates that money velocity is very elastic because the value of changes in money velocity is higher than that in debit card transactions. the results of this study are in line with those of research conducted by (aliha et al., 2019) finding that the development of technology and banking, such as the debit card creation can increase money velocity. the increased use of debit cards will be followed by the decreasing cash demands in the society and result in the increasing money circulation in economy increase. the findings related to the use of debit cards can increase the money circulation in economy as expressed by (dunne & kasekende, 2018) in his research, that debit and atm cards have the potential to increase efficiency and decrease transaction costs because the cash to bring is replaced by innovation in payment instruments causing a decreasing public demand for cash and rapid money velocity. unlike debit card, as seen from the equation of estimation results above, the use of credit cards in indonesia has a significant negative effect on money velocity. when there is 1 percent credit card increase, it will be followed by a decreasing value of money velocity by 0.4821190 or 48.21 percent. this is in line with the research conducted by (jiang & shao, 2020) in his literature, explaining that credit card expansion affected cash credit sector in which he argued that new payment instruments (credit cards) resulted in cash dropping to other payment instruments in the selling point. the development of new payment instruments has a potential to affect the public demand for cash and cause the decreasing money circulation in economy. currencies in circulation have significantly made a part of central bank balance sheets, decreasing currency demand with important implications for seigniorage income, independence, and ability of central banks to conduct the monetary policy. however, different results were also found in this study, as mentioned by (geanakoplos & dubey, 2010) in their literature that the widespread use of credit cards can increase trade efficiency, yet the use of credit cards also increases money velocity leading to putra, huljannah, anis, & azhar debit and credit cards: money velocity risks jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 237 inflation without any monetary intervention. similarly, the research conducted by (alih et al., 2018) stating that credit card variable has a positive and significant impact on the incoming money demand in a long run. it can be concluded from the above studies that the use of credit cards doesn’t decrease but increase the money supply. however, the results of this study are in line with (aliha et al., 2019) in which the increasing credit card use can reduce the cash demand in society and result in the slowing money circulation in society. similarly, both interest rate and inflation, have a significant and positive effect on money supply, while interest rate has a significant and negative effect on money velocity. variance decomposition (vd) analysis results variance decomposition is a prediction related to the percentage contribution of each particular variable’s variance. however, we can generally expect that the largest proportion of variance comes from the variable itself. thus, the use of variance decomposition was intended to obtain an overview the strength of role composition to certain variables. table 7 variance decomposition results period s.e. v log(dc) log(cd) r inf 1 0.094315 100.0000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 5 0.126181 70.71722 0.975518 20.73661 3.333495 4.237155 10 0.163246 64.10740 1.203576 25.06789 5.736272 3.884781 table 7 shows that the largest contribution affecting money velocity circulation came from its growing variance. the highest contribution in a short term was 100 percent in the first period, it means that only money velocity circulation affects itself, while in the 5th period, this proportion decreased to 70.71 percent and other variables which have the largest proportion influencing money velocity circulation in indonesia respectively consisting of cd, credit card transactions; and inf, inflation rate in indonesia. furthermore, the influence proportion of money velocity for itself decreased to 64.10 percent in the 10th period. in this period the largest contribution was made by cd, known as the trend of credit card-based non-cash payment transactions, reaching up to 25.06 percent. irf analysis results (impulse response function) according to (basuki & prawoto, 2016), the irf analysis can explain the impact of shocks on one variable to the other variables. this analysis was not only in short-term but also for several horizons in the future as a long-term information. the impulse response function aimed to track the current and future responses of each variable due to a change or shock of a particular variable. in this variable, shock was seen in the payment transaction variable using both debit and credit cards to determine the response to the money velocity circulation in indonesia. based on figure 2, the irf results show how the response of money velocity variable shocks and occurs in the debit card variable. it can be seen in the first and second period that shock on debit cards shows a fairly flat response to the money velocity circulation, but shock from credit card was positively responded by the money velocity circulation in the third period to the end of fourth period. finally, in the next period, the response value of money velocity to the shock of debit card which putra, huljannah, anis, & azhar debit and credit cards: money velocity risks jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 238 always approaches not only horizontal line but also zero. it means that in the eighth period, the money velocity was back to stable. figure 2 irf test results on money velocity responses to debit cards in indonesia furthermore, figure 3 is the money velocity responses to the shock occurring on credit card variable in indonesia. meanwhile, based on figure 3, it can be seen that at the beginning of 2nd period, the shock occurring on credit cards was positively responded by money velocity circulation with its positive movements. however, in the third to fifth period, the movement in response to money velocity circulation showed a decrease, yet still positively responded. both variables began to show their stability between shock and response from the 7th to the next period. figure 3 irf test results on money velocity responses to credit cards in indonesia figure 4 below shows that money velocity responses in indonesia to the interest rate was positive. this condition can be seen from the reaction line above the zero-horizon line. this positive response was proven in the third period until reaching the end of period. meanwhile, in figure 5, it can be seen that money velocity in indonesia gives a positive response to inflation. this positive response was proven starting from the shock to the third period. after the third period, the response shows a direction towards stability until the next period. putra, huljannah, anis, & azhar debit and credit cards: money velocity risks jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 239 figure 4 irf test results on money velocity response due to interest rate changes in indonesia figure 5 irf test results on money velocity responses due to inflation changes in indonesia classical assumption test this test was conducted to determine whether or not there were deviations occurring in the research results in the regression equation. the classical assumption test consisted of normality, multicollinearity, heteroscedasticity, and autocorrelation test. normality test the normality test was intended to test whether or not the standardized residual value in the regression model was normally distributed. the residuals were tested using jarquebera test and resulted in normally distributed, it was proven by comparing the calculated jarque-bera probability value with the alpha level of 5 percent. it can be seen that the calculated jb probability value of 0.064284 was greater than the 5 percent alpha level value. thus, it indicates that the residuals were normally distributed. putra, huljannah, anis, & azhar debit and credit cards: money velocity risks jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 240 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 series: residuals sample 2016m02 2020m06 observations 53 mean 1.70e-16 median 0.018326 maximum 0.190108 minimum -0.251821 std. dev. 0.094578 skewness -0.773207 kurtosis 3.306821 jarque-bera 5.488892 probability 0.064284 figure 6 normality test results multicollinearity test the multicollinearity test in research was used to see whether or not there was a relationship (correlation) between the independent variables. if there is a relationship between the independent variables, then the regression coefficient tends to be insignificant. the table 8 shows that all vif values in the centered vif column for each variable in the study did not exceed 10. it indicates that there was no multicollinearity problem in this study. table 8 multicollinearity test results variable coefficient variance centered vif cd 3.20e-17 3.107464 dc 8.28e-20 3.533868 inf 0.000643 1.590395 r 0.000173 1.070269 c 0.023176 na heteroscedasticity test heteroscedasticity occurs when the residual and predictive values have a correlation or relationship pattern. the pattern of this relationship is not only linear, but also possibly different. the heteroscedasticity test in this study used glejser method. if the prob value is smaller, there is a heteroscedasticity problem, but if the prob value is bigger, there is no heteroscedasticity problem. based on the above heteroscedasticity test results, it can be seen the prob value. the chisquare of obs*r-squared of 0.9796 was greater than the 5 percent alpha level. it was proven that there was no heteroscedasticity problem in the research model. putra, huljannah, anis, & azhar debit and credit cards: money velocity risks jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 241 table 9 heteroscedasticity test results heteroskedasticity test: glejser f-statistic 0.099261 prob. f(4,49) 0.9822 obs*r-squared 0.434040 prob. chi-square(13) 0.9796 scaled explained ss 0.418849 prob. chi-square(13) 0.9809 autocorrelation test table 10 autocorrelation test results breusch-godfrey serial correlation lm test: f-statistic 2.866743 prob. f(2,47) 0.0669 obs*r-squared 5.871189 prob. chi-square(2) 0.0531 the next step in classical assumption is to perform an autocorrelation test. the autocorrelation test in this study used breusch-godfrey serial correlation lm test. the test results show that there was no autocorrelation problem as evidenced by the prob value. the chi-squared of obs*r-squared was 0.0531 greater than the 5 percent alpha level value. conclusion the relationship between financial innovation and money supply is indeed familiar in financial literature, but how financial innovation affects performance and movement of money velocity is greatly important to be explored further. this study looks at this relationship through the measured money velocity variable, with a comparison between the ratio of nominal gdp and money supply (m0). thus, some conclusions are drawn as follows: (1) money velocity in a short run doesn’t show a significant effect on financial innovation, namely debit card transactions in indonesia, but this effect changes into significant and positive on money velocity in a long run. it indicates that money velocity is greatly sensitive to the debit card expansion in indonesia. the positive relationship between money velocity and debit card transactions proves the hypothesis that transitions from cash to non-cash (using debit cards) increases money velocity in indonesia. (2) money velocity in a short run does not show a significant effect on the use of credit cards in indonesia, but in a long run, this card-based payment instrument (credit card) has a significant and negative effect on money velocity in indonesia, showing that innovation credit-card payment instruments dominate the market in indonesia. the negative relationship between money velocity and credit card catches a shock on money velocity due to credit transactions, where money velocity has actually decreased due to the increasing use of credit cards in indonesia. the existence of significant relationship between money velocity and card-based noncash transactions in indonesia, in a long run, indicates that it needs caution for policymakers in making decisions. indirectly, this long-run relationship explains that central bank can enter and influence people's transaction behaviors. meanwhile, currency circulation is a significant part of central bank's balance sheet. the decreasing currency demand will have some important implications to central bank's seigniorage putra, huljannah, anis, & azhar debit and credit cards: money velocity risks jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 242 income, independence, and ability to conduct monetary policy. therefore, it is important to monitor and understand the money velocity trend to provide benefits in a long run. this study has several limitations in describing the relationship between debit card transactions and money velocity in indonesia. the relationship between debit card and money velocity is positive. meanwhile, the expected relationship based on theory is negative. this is possibly because the data are limited. for future researchers conducting similar topics are suggested to improve the limitations of this study. references alih, p. m., sarmidi, t., shaari, a. h., & said, f. f. 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(2020). the influence of payment mechanisms on pricing: when mental imagery stimulates desire for money. journal of retailing, 96(2), 178–188. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jretai.2019.08.002 https://doi.org/10.29259/jep.v16i2.8877 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2019.09.003 https://doi.org/10.14710/jdep.1.1.47-62 https://ejournal.unsri.ac.id/index.php/jep/article/view/8774 http://dx.doi.org/10.18196/jesp.21.2.5037 http://ejournal.unhasy.ac.id/index.php/bisei/article/view/716 https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-018-0097-x https://doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v1i1.158 https://doi.org/10.2991/ebmcsr-18.2018.19 https://doi.org/10.2991/ebmcsr-18.2018.19 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jretai.2019.08.002 microsoft word 03-darwati_rev1 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015, hlm.146-157   valuasi ekonomi mitigasi lahan pertanian rawan banjir darwati1, suryanto2 1,2fakultas ekonomi dan bisnis, universitas sebelas maret surakarta jalan ir. sutami nomor 36 a kentingan surakarta 57126, indonesia, phone +62 271 647481 e-mail korespondensi: yanto.rimsy@gmail.com naskah diterima: april 2014; disetujui: agustus 2014 abstract: the purpose of this study is to identify the location of flood prone areas, determine the economic value of agricultural land prone to flooding mitigation, and determine the factors that influence the willingness to pay (wtp) mitigation of flood-prone farmland in purworejo.the data used is primary data is done by direct interview to the respondents. the sampling technique by using simple random sampling. the sample in this study were 81 farmers in the village kedungmulyo. analysis of data using geographic information systems (gis), contingent valuation method (cvm) and multiple linear regression. the results of this study indicate that almost all districts in the flood-prone purworejo except district of bruno and the district kaligesing. the average willingness to pay for mitigation of floodprone agricultural land between rp51.000-rp 100.000.the level of farmer losses average about 0-35% of normal production, and a decrease in average production of about rp0 rp1 million of normal production. the results of multiple linear regression analysis showed that the variables of education, occupation, number of dependents, land prices and land area affect the willingness to pay or willingness to pay (wtp) mitigation of agricultural land prone to flooding in purworejo. keywords: economic valuation; mitigation; wtp; flood prone areas; agricultural jel classification: o13, q15, q51, r11 abstrak: upaya studi ini bertujuan mengidentifikasi lokasi wilayah rawan banjir, mengetahui nilai ekonomi mitigasi lahan pertanian rawan banjir, dan mengetahui faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi kesediaan membayar atau willingness to pay (wtp) mitigasi lahan pertanian rawan banjir di kabupaten purworejo. data yang digunakan adalah data primer yang dilakukan dengan wawancara langsung kepada para responden. teknik pengambilan sampel dengan menggunakan simple random sampling. sampel dalam studi ini adalah 81 petani di desa kedungmulyo. analisis data menggunakan sistem informasi geografi (sig), contingent valuation method (cvm) dan regresi linier berganda. hasil studi ini menunjukkan bahwa hampir semua kecamatan yang ada di kabupaten purworejo rawan banjir kecuali kecamatan bruno dan kecamatan kaligesing. rata-rata kesediaan membayar terhadap mitigasi lahan pertanian rawan banjir antara rp51.000,00–rp100.000,00. tingkat kerugian petani rata-rata sekitar 0-35% dari produksi normal, dan penurunan produksi rata-rata sekitar rp0–rp1.000.000,00 dari produksi normal. hasil analisis regresi linier berganda menunjukkan bahwa variabel pendidikan, pekerjaan, jumlah tanggungan keluarga, harga lahan dan luas lahan berpengaruh terhadap kesediaan membayar atau willingness to pay (wtp) mitigasi lahan pertanian rawan banjir di kabupaten purworejo. kata kunci: valuasi ekonomi; mitigasi; wtp; lahan pertanian rawan banjir; pertanian klasifikasi jel: o13, q15, q51, r11 valuasi ekonomi mitigasi lahan pertanian ... (darwati, suryanto) 147 pendahuluan perubahan dalam penggunaan dan pengelolaan lahan berlangsung secara dinamis sejalan dengan pertumbuhan jumlah penduduk. pengelolaan lahan pertanian kini seringkali hanya mementingkan kepentingan ekonomi saja tanpa memperhatikan kepentingan jangka panjang yaitu kelestarian lingkungan. seiring semakin bertambahnya jumlah penduduk maka lahan pertanian pun semakin berkurang. ketika pertumbuhan penduduk meningkat maka kebutuhan akan pangan juga meningkat. keadaan ini akan berdampak pada penurunan kualitas dan kelestarian lingkungan akibat dari penggunaan dan pengelolaan lahan yang tidak memperhatikan kondisi lingkungan. karena kebijakan pengelolaan lahan lebih menekankan pada aspek pertumbuhan ekonomi dan ketersediaan pangan untuk memenuhi kebutuhan masyarakat. namun, manfaat yang diperoleh dari barang dan jasa lingkungan menjadi terbatas karena adanya keterbatasan dalam nilai barang dan jasa lingkungan (sihite, 2001). menurut putra (2015), pemanfaatan dan pengelolaan lahan untuk kepentingan ekonomi seharusnya dilakukan tanpa merusak lingkungan, atau setidaknya diupayakan agar keseimbangan antara kedua komponen tersebut dapat mendekati kondisi ideal. keseimbangan antara kondisi ekologi dan ekonomi dalam pengelolaan sumber daya alam dan lingkungan dapat dicapai dengan menerapkan aspek ekonomi sebagai instrumen yang mengatur alokasi sumber daya alam secara rasional (putra, 2015). selain itu, kebijakan untuk mengurangi suatu dampak lingkungan akan dipengaruhi oleh perhitungan biaya yang harus dikeluarkan untuk mengurangi atau memperbaiki dampak lingkungan dan manfaat yang akan diperoleh kemudian (sihite, 2001). kerusakan sumber daya lahan pertanian terjadi karena aktivitas pertanian yang tidak ramah lingkungan terus terjadi di semua provinsi, sehingga lahan kritis terus bertambah dari tahun ke tahun (soemarwoto, 2001). sistem pertanian yang terlalu banyak menggunakan input bahan kimia, selain menimbulkan pencemaran, juga menyebabkan terjadinya degradasi tanah, sehingga produktivitas lahan semakin menurun dan tidak mampu memberikan hasil yangoptimal. hasil studi netty dkk., (2014) membuktikan bahwa pemupukan urea dapat meningkatkan kepadatan tanah, menurunkan tingkat infiltrasi dan meningkatkan erosi. begitu juga dengan bencana banjir pada lahan sawah merupakan salah satu dampak pengelolaan yang tidak memperhatikan aspek kelestarian lingkungan. lahan sawah menjadi tergenang dan mengakibatkan sawah gagal panen. hal ini tidak lepas dari adanya perubahan iklim yang tidak menentu. selain itu, pertanian khususnya lahan sawah sangat bergantung pada kondisi cuaca. oleh karena itu, perlu adanya suatu tindakan untuk mengatasi masalah ini. tindakan menilai atau menghitung manfaat lingkungan dan dampaknya kepada masyarakat secara ekonomi tidak dapat dinyatakan secara relatif bahwa nilainya sangat kecil atau sangat besar. perhitungan dan atau penilaian manfaat barang dan jasa lingkungan harus dinilai secara finansial (syahputra, 2013). penentuan nilai ekonomi (valuasi ekonomi) terhadap manfaat dan dampak yang ditimbulkan dari pengelolaan sumber daya alam dan lingkungan sangat diperlukan untuk pengambilan kebijakan dan analisis ekonomi suatu aktivitas pertanian. dampak dari suatu kegiatan dapat bersifat langsung maupun tidak langsung, dapat juga dampak itu dinyatakan sebagai dampak primer dan dampak sekunder. dampak langsung atau dampak primer merupakan dampak yang timbul sebagai akibat dari tujuan utama kegiatan atau kebijakan, baik itu berupa biaya ataupun manfaat. tanpa pemberian nilai dalam rupiah akan sulit bagi kita untuk menyatakan bahwa kegiatan atau kebijakan itu layak adanya. menurut soeparmoko (2000), ada alasan penting untuk penilaian lingkungan yaitu berkaitan dengan kebijakan ekonomi makro, dan bagi keputusan alokasi faktor produksi demi efisiensi pada tingkat mikro. penilaian manfaat dan dampak secara moneter harus berdasarkan pada penilaian yang tepat akan manfaat dan dampak fisik dan keterkaitannya, karena dampak yang ditimbulkan mengakibatkan perubahan produktivitas maupun perubahan kualitas lingkungan. para ahli ekonomi telah mengembangkan metode valuasi untuk mengukur nilai dari pengelolaan sumber daya alam dan lingkungan, terutama untuk barang dan jasa yang jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015: 146-157 148 tidak memiliki nilai pasar. penilaian ini dapat dilakukan dengan berbagai metode dan pendekatan (grigalunas dan conger, 1995; freeman iii, 2003). salah satu wilayah yang mempunyai lahan sawah yang cukup luas adalah kabupaten purworejo.luas lahan sawah kabupaten purworejo seluas 30.230 ha dengan rata-rata produksi 329.938 ton pada tahun 2013.wilayah kabupaten purworejo berupa dataran rendah yang berada di bagian selatan dan daerah yang berbukit-bukit di bagian utara.karena belum adanya sistem pengairandan sistem drainase yang memadai maka bagian selatan yang mayoritas didominasi dataran rendah sering terjadi bencana banjir dan memicu daerahdaerah di sekitarnya menjadi daerah yang rawan banjir. hal tersebut tak terkecuali pada lahan sawahnya. ada beberapa wilayah yang mendapat genangan rutin di kabupaten purworejo seperti tampak dalam tabel 1. tabel 1. wilayah genangan rutin di kabupaten purworejo kecamatan grabag: 67 ha 1. desa bakurejo 2. desa dudu wetan 3. desa dudu kulon 4. desa sumber agung 5. desa nambangan kecamatan pituruh: 30 ha 1. desa pituruh 14 2. desa prigelen 7 3. desa ngampel 4 4. desa sikandang 4 pada awal tahun 2013 dua wilayah kecamatan di kabupaten purworejo dilanda bencana banjir yang lebih besar bila dibandingkan dengan tahun-tahun sebelumnya. dua kecamatan tersebut adalah kecamatan butuh dan kecamatan grabag. sebanyak 15 desa terendam banjir di kecamatan butuh. desa kedungmulyo merupakan desa yang paling luas tergenang banjir yaitu 130 ha. sedangkan di kecamatan grabag terdapat 10 desa yang terendam banjir. total daerah tergenang di kecamatan grabag yaitu seluas 695 ha. banjir tersebut disebabkan karena pendangkalan, penyempitan dan banyaknya tanggul kritis pada saluran drainase dlangu, drainase lereng barat, drainase lereng timur, dan drainase lereng kolektor. hal tersebut menyebabkan sistem drainase daerah aliran sungai cokroyasan dan daerah aliran sungai wawar menjadi tidak lancar. selain hal tersebut, kondisi pintu-pintu klep dan pintu pengendali banjir disalah satu desa tidak berfungsi dengan baik. tabel2.kejadian banjir kabupaten purworejo januari 2013 kecamatan butuh 490 ha 1. desa dlangu 5 ha 2. desa kunir 10 ha 3. desa kedungagung 54 ha 4. desa kedungsri 21 ha 5. desa kedungsari 38 ha 6. desa rowodadi 50 ha 7. desa sidomulyo 54 ha 8. desa kedungmulyo* 130 ha 9. desa mangunjayan 45 ha 10. desa karanganom 10 ha 11. desa polomarto 10 ha 12. desa tlogorejo 10 ha 13. desa tegalgondo 23 ha 14 desa lubang indangan 20 ha 15. desa lubang dukuh 10 ha kecamatan grabag 695 ha 1. desa rejosari 30 ha 2. desa ketawang 3 ha 3. desa nambangan 662 ha 4. desa sumberagung 5. desa bakurejo 6. desa dudu wetan 7. desa dudu kulon 8. desa trimulyo 9. desa rowodadi 10. desa bendungan *lokasi studi di desa kedungmulyo karena desa kedungmulyo merupakan desa yang mempunyai dearah rawan banjir paling luas bila dibandingkan dengan desa lainnya. sedangkan menurut dinas pertanian terdapat beberapa wilayah lahan sawah yang tergolong rawan banjir. wilayah tersebut di antaranya kecamatan pituruh, kecamatan butuh, kecamatan grabag, dan kecamatan bayan. untuk lebih jelasnya dapat dilihat pada tabel 3. di kabupaten purworejo terdapat beberapa wilayah yang sering terkena bencana banjir dan banyak wilayah yang rawan terkena banjir.sehingga perlu adanya tindakan khusus valuasi ekonomi mitigasi lahan pertanian ... (darwati, suryanto) 149 untuk mencegah atau mengurangi bencana banjir khususnya pada lahan pertaniannya. berdasarkan uraian tersebut maka diadakan studi yang berjudul “valuasi ekonomi mitigasi lahan pertanian rawan banjir kabupaten purworejo.” pada studi terdahulu kurniawan (2009) menggunakan metode analisis willingness to pay (wtp), travel cost method (tcm) dan sistem informasi geografi (sig). sig hanya digunakan sebagai alat analisis spasial sedangkan wtp dan tcm digunakan untuk mengetahui manfaat dari barang dan jasa yang dihasilkan. variabel yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah penggunaan air, biaya yang dikeluarkan masyarakat sekitar kawasan karst maros-pangkep (kkmp), jumlah produksi, harga bahan baku pdam, luas sawah dan keuntungan produksi per hektar. hasil dari studi ini dapat mengetahui nilai guna langsung (direct use value) sebesar rp1.199.918.615.100, dan nilai guna tak langsung(indirect use value) sebesar rp808.117.741.60,-. nilai ekonomi total dari sebagian jasa lingkungan kawasan karst maros-pangkep (kkmp) adalah: rp2.072.501.086.700,per tahun. masih dengan metode yang sama putri (2013) menggunakan metode willingness to pay (wtp). hasil dari studi ini adalah persepsi masyarakat desa pesawaran indah terhadap keterkaitan ketersediaan air dengan kondisi hutan berkisar 64%-73%, masyarakat bersedia membayar rehabilitasi hutan sehingga pemanfaatan air bisa lestari. nilai ekonomi total air desa pesawaran indah rp1.705.844.764,per tahun. berasal dari pemanfaatan air untuk rumah tangga rp1.674.984.480,per tahun, pemanfaatan air untuk listrik rp5.526.684,-per tahun dan pemanfaatan air untuk irigasi rp25.333.600,per tahun. nilai kesediaan membayar untuk rehabilitasi hutan dan lahan sebesar rp419.144.644,per tahun. berbeda halnya dengan studi kim (2002) yang menggunakan metode analisis contigent valuation method (cvm). dalam studi ini terdapat dua variabel independen utama yaitu faktor individu dan faktor daerah. faktor individu terdiri dari pendapatan, pendidikan, informasi dan keterikatan masyarakat. faktor daerah terbagi atas lokasi perumahan dan kedekatan lokasi dengan sungai. studi ini menemukan bahwa faktor individu dan faktor daerah tabel 3. lahan sawah rawan banjir di kabupaten purworejo no kecamatan desa 1. pituruh 1. tersidi lor 2. tersidi kidul 3. prigelan 4. tasikmadu 2. butuh 1. kedungagung 2. kedungmulyo 3. kedungsri 4. rowodadi 5. sumbersari 6. langenharjo 7. wareng 8. polomarto 9. tlogorejo 3. grabag 1. rowodadi 2. trimulyo 3. bendungan 4. tulusrejo 5. tegalrejo 6. kalirejo 7. bakurejo 8. dudu wetan 9. dudu kulon 10. rejosari 4. bayan 1. botorejo 2. botodaleman 3. dewi sumber: dinas pertanian(2015) jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015: 146-157 150 berpengaruh positif terhadap kemauan membayar peningkatan kualitas air. dalam studi ini menjelaskan bahwa orang-orang hilir memiliki kemauan membayar (wtp) yang lebih rendah dalam mempertahankan dan meningkatkan kualitas air bila dibandingkan dengan orangorang hulu. syahputra (2013) menggunakan metode effect on production yang mengevaluasi sumber daya lahan pertanian dan pertambakan di desa kuala namu kecamatan beringin kabupaten deli serdang. variabel yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah wtp pelestarian kawasan pertanian dan pertambakan, rata-rata produksi, rata-rata pengalaman bertani, rata-rata pendapatan, rata-rata umur dan rata-rata jumlah keluarga. hasil dari studi ini menunjukkan nilai ekonomi dan sumber daya lahan pertanian di desa kuala namu adalah sebesar: rp911.765.211,00 per tahun. sedangkan nilai ekonomi sumber daya lahan pertambakannya adalah sebesar rp203.012.573,90 per tahun. total nilai ekonomi sumber daya lahan pertanian dan lahan pertambakan di desa kuala namu dengan pendekatan effect on production adalah sebesar rp1.114.777.784,90 per tahun. selain itu, lamusa (2010) menggunakan alat analisis koefisien variasi untuk mengidentifikasi risiko usahatani padi sawah rumah tangga di daerah impenso dan non impenso provinsi sulawesi tengah. data melalui analisis koefisien variasi, risiko usahatani padi di daerah impenso lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan daerah nonimpenso. hal ini ditunjukkan oleh koefisien variasi usahatani padi sawah rumah tangga di daerah impenso sebesar 33 kali lebih besar dibandingkan dengan koefisien usahatani padi rumah tangga di bukan daerah impenso sebesar 19. selanjutnya setelah dilakukan uji statistik dengan t-test, ternyata perbedaan tersebut sangat signifikan pada tingkat kepercayaan 90%. adapun tujuan dari studi ini yaitu; 1) mengindentifikasi lokasi wilayah rawan banjir; 2) mengetahui nilai ekonomi mitigasi lahan pertanian rawan bencana banjir dan 3) mengetahui faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi kesediaan membayar atau willingness to pay (wtp) mitigasi lahan pertanian rawan banjir di kabupaten purworejo. metode penelitian jenis dan sumber data dalam studi ini menggunakan metode survei secara langsung kepada para petani yang menggarap lahan sawahnya di wilayah yang rawan bencana banjir di kabupaten purworejo. desa kedungmulyo kecamatan butuh adalah lokasi studi yang dipilih dalam studi ini. dalam studi ini jenis data yang dikumpulkan yaitu data primer dan data sekunder. menurut narimawati (2008), data primer ialah data yang berasal dari sumber asli atau pertama. data ini tidak tersedia dalam bentuk terkompilasi ataupun dalam bentuk file-file. data ini harus dicari melalui narasumber atau dalam istilah teknisnya responden, yaitu orang yang dijadikan objek studi atau orang yang dijadikan sebagai sarana mendapatkan informasi ataupun data. jenis data primer yang diperlukan yaitu; 1) data individual responden berupa usia, jenis kelamin, pendidikan, pekerjaan dan jumlah tanggungan keluarga; 2) karakteristik lahan berupa status kepemilikan, luas lahan, harga lahan, jarak sawah terhadap sungai, biaya produksi dan hasil produksi; 3) pemahaman lahan pertanian rawan banjir; 4) kemauan membayar atau willingness to pay (wtp) responden terhadap mitigasi lahan pertanian rawan banjir. menurut sugiyono (2005), data sekunder adalah data yang tidak langsung memberikan data kepada peneliti, misalnya studi harus melalui orang lain atau mencari melalui dokumen. data sekunder diperlukan untuk mendukung data primer. data sekunder dapat diperoleh dari buku-buku, literatur dan bacaan yang berhubungan dengan valuasi ekonomi lahan pertanian dan mitigasi bencana banjir. selain itu data sekunder dapat diperoleh dari instansiinstansi yang terkait dengan studi ini yaitu dinas pertanian, badan pusat statistik (bps), badan penanggulangan bencana daerah (bpbd), dinas sumber daya alam dan ekonomi sumber daya manusia (sda & esdm) kabupaten purworejo. jenis data sekunder yang diperlukan adalah: 1) data wilayah geografis; 2) data wilayah topografi; 3) data wilayah administratif; 4) data demografis (jumlah penduduk); valuasi ekonomi mitigasi lahan pertanian ... (darwati, suryanto) 151 5) data sosial ekonomi; 6) data luas lahan pertanian; 7) data bencana banjir. alat analisis metode yang digunakan adalah dengan wawancara langsung kepada para petani dan didukung dengan beberapa daftar pertanyaan atau kuesioner. populasi adalah wilayah generalisasi yang terdiri atas obyek atau subyek yang mempunyai kualitas dan karakteristik tertentu yang ditetapkan oleh peneliti untuk dipelajari dan kemudian ditarik kesimpulannya. sampel adalah bagian dari jumlah dan karakteristik yang dimiliki oleh populasi (sugiyono, 2011:62). populasi dalam studi ini adalah seluruh petani yang lahan pertaniannya termasuk rawan banjir di desa kedungmulyo kecamatan butuh kabupaten purworejo. jumlah petani di desa kedungmulyo adalah 359 petani. teknik sampling diperlukan dalam sebuah studi untuk menentukan siapa saja yang dijadikan sampel dari suatu populasi. dalam studi ini, penulis menggunakan teknik simple random sampling. teknik ini dilakukan secara acak tanpa memperhatikan adanya strata (notoatmodjo, 2003). sampel dalam studi ini menggunakan rumus yang dikemukakan oleh notoatmodjo (2002) yaitu: n = 1) keterangan: n adalah besar populasi; n adalah besar sampel; dan d adalah tingkat kepercayaan/ketepatan (10%). ada tiga model analisis yang digunakan dalam studi iniyaitu; 1) sistem informasi geografi (sig); 2) pendekatan kurva non permintaan dan valuasi kerugian; 3) analisis regresi berganda. sistem informasi geografi (sig) barus dan wiradisastra (2000) mengemukakan bahwa sistem informasi geografi adalah suatu sistem yang dirancanguntuk bekerja dengan data yang berreferensi spasial atau berkoordinat geografi. komponen sig terbagi menjadi empat kelompok, yaitu perangkat keras, perangkat lunak, organisasi (manajemen), dan pemakai. berdasarkan operasinya, sig dibedakan menjadi dua kelompok yaitu; 1) sig secara manual, cara operasinya dengan memanfaatkan peta cetak (kertas/transparan) dan bersifat analog; 2) sig secara terkomputer atau sering disebut sig otomatis, prinsip kerjanya sudah menggunakan komputer dengan data digital. menurut rusminah (2012), sig dapat digunakan untuk mengakses risiko potensial yang mungkin terjadi. sig mengintegrasikan satuan data-data yang berbeda untuk memberikan gambaran kasar dampak bencana alam terhadap masyarakat. sistem informasi geografi dapat beroperasi dengan komponen-komponen sebagai berikut: 1) orang yang menjalankan sistem meliputi orang yang mengoperasikan, mengembangkan bahkan memperoleh manfaat dari sistem. orang-orang yang menjadi bagian dari sistem informasi geografi misalnya operator, analis, programmer, database administrator bahkan stakeholder. 2) aplikasi merupakan prosedur yang digunakan untuk mengolah data menjadi informasi. misalnya penjumlahan, klasifikasi, rotasi, koreksi geometri, query, overlay, buffer, jointable. 3) data yang digunakan dalam sistem informasi geografi dapat berupa data grafis maupun data atribut. 4) software adalah perangkat lunak sistem informasi geografi berupa program aplikasi yang memiliki kemampuan pengelolaan, penyimpanan, pemrosesan, analisis dan penayangan data spasial. 5) hardware adalah perangkat keras yang dibutuhkan untuk menjalankan sistem berupa perangkat computer, printer, scanner, digitizer, plotter, dan perangkat pendukung lainnya. dalam studi ini penulis menggunakan peta ancaman bencana banjir terhadap penggunaan lahan di karesidenan kedu provinsi jawa tengah. kemudian akan lebih diperinci lagi membahas lahan rawan banjir di kabupaten purworejo. pendekatan kurva non permintaan dalam pendekatan kurva non permintaan terdapat metode valuasi kontingensi. metode ini menentukan preferensi konsumen terhadap jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015: 146-157 152 pemanfaatan sumber daya alam dan lingkungan dengan mengemukakan kesanggupan untuk membayar atau willingnes to pay (wtp) yang dinyatakan dalam nilai uang. teknik metode ini dengan melakukan survei dan wawancara dengan responden tentang nilai dan manfaat sumber daya alam dan lingkungan yang mereka rasakan. pendekatan willingnes to accept (wta) digunakan untuk mengetahui seberapa besar petani mau dibayar agar tetap bersedia mengelola dan mempertahankan lahan sawahnya. metode valuasi kontingensi dengan metode survei wtp dan wta telah banyak digunakan oleh peneliti, salah satunya navrud dan mungatana (1994). bencana alam yang diakibatkan oleh perubahan iklim seperti banjir berdampak negatif terhadap petani.besar kerugian yang diakibatkan oleh bencana alam tersebut dapat diketahui dari perubahan (penurunan) produktifitas pertanian. bencana banjir dapat menyebabkan kegagalan panen total bagi petani seperti yang terjadi di daerah kulonprogo bagian selatan (saptutyningsih dan suryanto, 2009). kerugian sektor pertanian itu sendiri dapat dihitung menggunakan formula sebagai berikut (soeparmoko, 2006): qx = f (a x pt) 2) keterangan: ∆ adalah simbol perubahan; qx adalah produksi pertanian; a adalah luas tanah yang tergenang air banjir; pt adalah produktifitas tanah per ha. langkah-langkah yang dilakukan untuk mengetahui tingkat kerugian per petani antara lain adalah: (1) menghitung penurunan produksi pertanian karena banjir; (2) menghitung luas lahan pertanian masing-masing petani. (3) menghitung rata-rata kerugian dari hasil produksi pertanian. analisis regresi linier berganda analisis regresi linier berganda digunakan untuk mengetahui pengaruh antara variabel dependen (variabel terikat) dengan variabel independen (variabel bebas). teknik analisis yang digunakan adalah metode ordinary least square (ols). rumus: wtp= f( + + + + + + ) 3) di mana: adalah variabel usia; adalah variabel pendidikan; adalah variabel pekerjaan; adalah variabel jumlah anggota keluarga; adalah variabel harga lahan; adalah varabel luas lahan; adalah variabel jarak sawah terhadap sungai. hasil dan pembahasan identifikasi lokasi wilayah rawan banjir kabupaten purworejo untuk mengidentifikasi lokasi wilayah rawan banjir maka studi ini menggunakan alat analisis sistem informasi geografi (sig) berupa peta ancaman bencana banjir. peta ini terdiri dari tiga komponen peta yang digabungkan, yaitu peta rupa bumi indonesia (rbi), peta kemiringan lereng, dan peta bentuk lahan. peta ancaman bencana banjir ini dapat menjelaskan seberapa luas lahan yang rawan terhadap bencana banjir. karesidenan kedu terbagi atas lima kabupaten yaitu kota magelang, kabupaten purworejo, kabupaten kebumen, kabupaten wonosobo, dan kabupaten temanggung. peta ancaman bencana banjir menjelaskan bahwa total lahan yang rawan terhadap bencana banjir adalah seluas 37.041,3 ha. luas area rawan banjir paling besar adalah sawah irigasi seluas 249.178.526 m2. pemukiman seluas 146.126.338 m2, kebun seluas 32.669.163 m2, tegalan seluas 14.495.971 m2, air tawar seluas 13.779.421 m2, sawah tadah hujan seluas 5.010.453 m2, rerumputan seluas 3.438.385 m2, semak belukar 881.399 m2, gedung seluas 812.819 m2, pasir darat 769.214 m2, rawa seluas 559.183 m2 dan empang seluas 43.288 m2. kabupaten purworejo merupakan salah satu wilayah karesidenan kedu provinsi jawa tengah. kabupaten purworejo terletak di bagian selatan karesidenan kedu yang bersebelahan dengan kabupaten kebumen. kabupaten purworejo mempunyai daerah rawan banjir paling banyak bila dibandingkan dengan kabupaten-kabupaten lainnya. hanya kecamatan bruno dan kecamatan kaligesing saja yang valuasi ekonomi mitigasi lahan pertanian ... (darwati, suryanto) 153 wilayahnya terbebas dari rawan banjir. wilayah yang rawan banjir di kecamatan bagelen berada di bagian barat dari kecamatan. wilayah rawan banjir tersebut berupa sawah irigasi dan pemukiman. sedangkan wilayah rawan banjir di kecamatan purwodadi berada di bagian timur dan selatan dari kecamatan. wilayah rawan banjir tersebut sebagian besar berupa sawah irigasi dan sedikit pemukiman. wilayah rawan banjir kecamatan ngombol terletak di bagian selatan dan barat dari kecamatan. wilayah rawan banjir tersebut berupa wilayah sawah tadah hujan dan sawah irigasi. hampir separuh dari luas kecamatan butuh dan kecamatan grabag adalah wilayah yang rawan banjir. wilayah tersebut berupa sawah tadah hujan, sawah irigasi dan pemukiman. begitu juga dengan kecamatan lainnya masing-masing terdapat wilayah yang rawan banjir meskipun hanya sebagian wilayah saja. nilai ekonomi mitigasi lahan pertanian rawan banjir kabupaten purworejo kesediaan membayar atau willingness to pay (wtp)mitigasi lahan pertanian rawan banjir. pendekatan kurva non permintaan dalam studi ini menggunakan alat analisis willingness to pay (wtp). berdasarkan hasil wawancara kepada responden telah dihasilkan beberapa klasifikasi kemampuan membayar responden terhadap mitigasi lahan pertanian rawan banjir. sebanyak 53,09% responden mampu membayar untuk mitigasi lahan pertanian rawan banjir sebesar rp51.000,00-rp100.000,00. sisanya sebanyak 39,51% responden hanya mampu membayar mitigasi lahan pertanian rawan banjir sebesar rp25.000,00-rp50.000.00. sementara hanya 7,41% responden saja yang mampu membayar mitigasi lahan pertanian rawan banjir sebesar rp101.000,00-rp150.000,00. sebagian besar responden lebih memilih untuk menyumbang tenaga daripada uang dalam upaya mitigasi lahan pertanian rawan banjir. karena masyarakat mengira mitigasi lahan pertanian rawan banjir adalah tanggungjawab pemerintah. apabila responden diharuskan membayar maka responden hanya mampu membayar angka paling minimal saja. tabel 4. kesediaan membayar (wtp) mitigasi lahan pertanian rawan banjir no klasifikasi wtp jumlah persentase (%) 1. rp25.000,00 rp50.000,00 32 39,51% 2. rp51.000 rp100.000 43 53,09% 3. rp 101.000rp150.000 6 7,41% total 81 100% banjir mengakibatkan dampak negatif terhadap aktivitas pertanian. salah satu dampak yang dirasakan petani ketika lahan pertaniannya terkena banjir adalah penurunan produksi. penurunan produksi antara: rp1.100.000rp2.000.000 sebanyak 16 orang dengan persentase 19,75%. kemudian dilanjutkan penurunan produksi antara: rp2100000-rp3000000 sebanyak 9 orang dengan persentase sebesar 11,11%. penurunan produksi antara: rp3.100.000rp4.000.000 dan di atas rp4.100.000 masingmasing berjumlah 3 orang dengan persentase masing-masing sebesar 3,70%. tabel 5. tingkat penurunan produksi no penurunan produksi (rp) jumlah responden persentase (%) 1. rp0-rp1.000.000 51 62,97% 2. rp1.100.000rp2.000.000 16 19,75% 3. rp2.100.000rp3.000.000 9 11,11% 4. rp3.100.000rp4.000.000 3 3,70% 5. >rp 4.100.000 3 3,70% total 81 100% tabel 6. tingkat kerugian (%) akibat banjir no penurunan produksi (%) jumlah responden persentase (%) 1. 07% 8 9,88% 2. 8%-14% 25 30,86% 3. 15%-21% 30 37,04% 4. 22%-28% 16 19,75% 5. 29%-35% 2 2,47% total 81 100% jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015: 146-157 154 tingkat kerugian petani pascabanjir di kabupaten purworejo berkisar antara 0-35%. tingkat kerugian petani paling banyak antara 15%-21% dari produksi normal yaitu sebanyak 30 orang dengan persentase sebesar 37,04% persentase kerugian paling sedikit adalah tingkat penurunan produksi antara 29%-35% dari produksi normal sebanyak 2 orang dengan persentase sebesar 2,47%. determinan willingness to pay (wtp) mitigasi lahan pertanian rawan banjir kabupaten purworejo. analisis regresi linier berganda digunakan untuk mengetahui seberapa besar variabel independen mempengaruhi variabel dependen. variabel independen dalam studi ini adalah usia, pendidikan, pekerjaan, jumlah tanggungan keluarga, harga lahan, dan luas lahan, dan jarak sawah terhadap sungai. sedangkan willingness to pay (wtp) mitigasi lahan pertanian rawan banjir sebagai variabel dependen. model studi dapat ditunjukkan sebagai berikut: wtp= f( + + + + + + +e) 4) keterangan: adalah variabel usia; adalah variabel pendidikan; adalah variabel pekerjaan; adalah variabel jumlah tanggungan keluarga; adalah variabel harga lahan; adalah luas lahan, adalah jarak sawah terhadap sungai. dengan menggunakan program e-views 6 menghasilkan output dari data yang telah diolah tampak dalam tabel 7. persamaan regresi yang diperoleh adalah sebagai berikut: wtp = 163.309,96 – 251,89*usia + (0,3934) 17.539,11*pendidikan – 12.971,50*pekerjaan – (0,0000) (0,0406) 8023,56*jtk – 2,52*hl + 10,18*ll –42,40*jss 5) (0,0011) (0,0013) (0,0000) (0,0804) persamaan 5 menunjukkan hubungan antara usia, pendidikan, pekerjaan, jumlah tanggungan keluarga, harga lahan, luas lahan dan jarak sawah terhadap sungai terhadap kesediaan membayar atau willingness to pay (wtp) lahan pertanian rawan banjir. koefisien determinasi (r2) digunakan untuk mengetahui berapa persen (%) variasi variabel dependen yang dapat dijelaskan oleh variasi variabel independen. besarnya nilai adjusted rsquared yang diperoleh dari regresi linier sebesar 0,7025 yang artinya sekitar 70,25% variasi variabel dependen dalam hal ini wtp (willingness to pay) dapat dijelaskan oleh variabel independen dalam hal ini variabel usia, pendidikan, pekerjaan, jumlah tanggungan keluarga, harga lahan, luas lahan, dan jarak sawah terhadap sungai. sisanya sebanyak 29,75% dijelaskan oleh variabel lain yang tidak dimasukkan dalam model. tingkat pendidikan, pekerjaan, jumlah tanggungan keluarga, harga lahan dan luas tabel 7. hasil analisis regresi linier berganda dengan metode ordinary least square (ols) no nama variabel koefisien t hitung prob. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. konstan usia pendidikan pekerjaan jtk harga lahan luas lahan jss 163310,0 -251,8882 17539,11 -12971,50 -8023,563 -2,515630 10,18115 -42,40132 5,144506 -0,858604 5,418508 -2,084546 -3,389260 -3,356073 8,707182 -1,773254 0,0000 0,3934* 0,0000 0,0406 0,0011 0,0013 0,0000 0,0804* r-squared adjusted r-squared durbin-watson stat 0,702486 0,673958 1,578761 f-statistic prob (f-statistic) 24,62385 0,000000 sumber: data primer diolah 2015 *: signifikan pada level 10% valuasi ekonomi mitigasi lahan pertanian ... (darwati, suryanto) 155 lahan masing-masing mempunyai pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap wtp mitigasi lahan pertanian rawan banjir pada derajat signifikansi 5%. variabel luas lahan mempunyai pengaruh paling besar dibandingkan dengan variabel lainnya terhadap kemauan membayar willingness to pay (wtp) mitigasi lahan pertanian rawan banjir. sementara variabel pendidikan dan luas lahan mempunyai pengaruh positif terhadap kemauan membayar willingness to pay (wtp) mitigasi lahan pertanian rawan banjir. variabel pekerjaan, jumlah tanggungan keluarga dan harga lahan mempunyai pengaruh negatif terhadap kemauan membayar willingness to pay (wtp) mitigasi lahan pertanian rawan banjir. sedangkan usia dan jarak sawah terhadap sungai tidak mempunyai pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap wtp mitigasi lahan pertanian rawan banjir. uji multikolinearitas bertujuan untuk apakah model regresi ditemukan adanya korelasi antarvariabel bebas. hasil pengujian ini menunjukkan bahwa tidak terjadi multikolinearitas. uji heteroskedastisitas bertujuan untuk menguji apakah dalam model regresi terjadi ketidaksamaan variance dan residual satu pengamatan ke pengamatan lain. pengujian heteroskedastisitas dilakukan dengan metode uji white menyimpulkan bahwa model terbebas dari masalah heteroskedastisitas. hasil pengujian autokorelasi dengan metode breusch-godfrey test (b-g tes) menunjukkan bahwa model terbebas dari masalah autokorelasi. simpulan berdasarkan identifikasi lokasi wilayah rawan banjir kabupaten purworejo dengan menggunakan sistem informasi geografi (sig), hampir semua kecamatan yang ada di kabupaten purworejo rentan bencana banjir kecuali kecamatan bruno dan kecamatan kaligesing. kecamatan yang paling luas wilayah rawan banjir adalah kecamatan butuh. sedangkan menurut jenis penggunaan lahan, sawah irigasi adalah lahan yang paling luas dan rawan terhadap bencana banjir. berdasarkan analisis kurva non permintaan dan valuasi kerugiandapat diketahuinilai ekonomi mitigasi lahan pertanian rawan banjir kabupaten purworejo. mayoritas responden mampu membayar rp51.000 – rp100.000 untuk mitigasi lahan pertanian rawan banjir kabupaten purworejo. mayoritas penurunan produksi berkisar antara rp0 – rp1.000.000 dari produksi normal. tingkat kerugian akibat banjir berkisar antara 0-35% dari produksi normal. berdasarkan analisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi kesediaan membayar atau willingness to pay (wtp) mitigasi lahan pertanian rawan banjir kabupaten purworejo, variabel pendidikan dan luas lahan berpengaruh positif terhadap kesediaan membayar atau willingness to pay (wtp) mitigasi lahan pertanian rawan banjir. variabel pekerjaan, jumlah tanggungan keluarga, harga lahan dan jarak sawah terhadap sungai berpengaruh negatif terhadap kesediaan membayar atau willingness to pay (wtp) mitigasi lahan pertanian rawan banjir. sedangkan variabel usia tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap kesediaan membayar atau willingness to pay (wtp) mitigasi lahan pertanian rawan banjir. berdasarkan kesimpulan yang telah dijelaskan di atas, maka penulis memberikan beberapasaran yang berkaitan dengan studi ini. adapunsaran tersebut adalah sebagai berikut: 1) perlu adanya kerjasama antara pemerintah dan masyarakat untuk bisa melakukan tindakan mitigasi yang berkelanjutan baik pembangunan fisik maupun non fisik. seyogyanya sistem drainase dan pengairan yang sudah dibuat selalu diadakan pengawasan agar tidak terjadi kerusakan dan tindakan-tindakan yang merugikan antarpetani; 2) petani disarankan untuk ikut serta dalam asuransi pertanian. karena kegiatan usaha di sektor pertanian akan selalu dihadapkan pada risiko ketidakpastian yang cukup tinggi. risiko ketidakpastian tersebut meliputi tingkat kerusakan usahatani, tingkat kegagalan panen yang disebabkan berbagai bencana alam seperti kekeringan, banjir, serta serangan hama dan penyakit karena perubahan iklim global. sistem asuransi pertanian berupa pendanaan yang berkaitan dengan pembagian risiko dalam usahatani. asuransi pertanian dijadikan sebagai alat untuk meningkatkan produksi dan melindungi petani dari ketidakpastian usaha di sektor pertanian; 3) dinas terkait hendaknya melakukan penyuluhan rutin kepada para petani dengan memberikan saran-saran untuk menghindari dampak banjir jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015: 146-157 156 pada lahan pertanian atau pun inovasi-inovasi baru untuk meningkatkan produktivitas petani. daftar pustaka badan pusat statistik. 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(2013). analisis valuasi ekonomi metode effect on production sumber daya lahan pertanian dan pertambakan di desa kuala namu kecamatan beringin kabupaten deli serdang. jurnal vol. 05. no. 01. undang-undang republik indonesia nomor 24 tahun 2007 tentang penanggulangan bencana. undang-undang republik indonesia nomor 32 tahun 2009 tentang perlindungan dan pengelolaan lingkungan hidup www.bnpb.go.id, diakses tanggal 30 desember 2014 pukul 14.19 wib microsoft word 04-ida_rev1 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015, hlm.42-52 pengaruh perubahan iklim terhadap produksi pertanian dan strategi adaptasi pada lahan rawan kekeringan ida nurul hidayati1, suryanto2 1,2 fakultas ekonomi dan bisnis, universitas sebelas maret jalan ir. sutami 36 a surakarta 57126, indonesia. phone: +62 271 647481 e-mail korespondensi: yanto.rimsy@gmail.com naskah diterima: september 2014; disetujui: februari 2015 abstract: the objectives of research were to find out the influence of climate change on agricultural production and farmer’s adaptation strategies in drought-prone land in semarang district.the data used in this research are primary data collected through interviews and observations. simple random sampling is used to take sample of this research. the sample in this research were 90 farmers in the village jatirunggo, 27 of them are farmers in droughtprone areas and 63 farmers in normal areas. based on the results of a log linear regression analysis, showed that the variables: land, capital, labor, and farmers' group membership are influence the agricultural production positively and significant. while drought areas is influenced negatively. the results of logistic regression analysis showed that the farmers in drought areas, gender, farmer group membership, and the use of fertilizer has a significant influence on the chances of crop failure. while farmers who suffered a decline in product agricultural, and farmers in drought areas have a significant influence on farmers’ decision opportunities in changing cropping patterns and shifting the time of planting as a form of adapting the climate changes. keywords: climate change; drought; production; adaptation strategy jel classification: o13, o12 abstrak: tujuan studi ini adalah mengetahui pengaruh perubahan iklim terhadap produksi pertanian dan strategi adaptasi yang dilakukan petani pada lahan rawan kekeringan di kabupaten semarang. data yang digunakan dalam studi ini berupa data primer yang dikumpulkan melalui wawancara dan observasi. metode pengambilan sampel yang digunakan adalah simple random sampling. sampel pada studi ini adalah 90 petani di desa jatirunggo, 27 diantaranya adalah petani di daerah rawan kekeringan dan 63 petani di daerah normal. berdasarkan hasil analisis regresi log linear berganda menunjukkan bahwa variabel: luas lahan, modal, tenaga kerja, dan keanggotaan kelompok tani berpengaruh secara positif dan signifikan terhadap produksi pertanian. sedangkan variabel daerah kekeringan berpengaruh secara negatif. hasil pengujian hipotesis menggunakan regresi logistik menunjukkan bahwa petani yang berada di daerah kering, jenis kelamin, keanggotaan sebagai kelompok tani, dan penggunaan pupuk memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap peluang kegagalan panen. sedangkan petani yang mengalami penurunan hasil, dan petani yang berada di daerah kering memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap peluang keputusan petani dalam mengubah pola tanam dan menggeser waktu tanam sebagai bentuk adaptasi terhadap perubahan iklim. kata kunci: perubahan iklim; kekeringan; produksi; strategi adaptasi klasifikasi jel: o13, o12 pengaruh perubahan iklim pergerakan ... (ida nurul hidayati, suryanto) 43 pendahuluan indonesia merupakan negara pertanian di mana pertanian memegang peranan penting dari keseluruhan perekonomian nasional. hal ini dapat ditunjukkan dari banyaknya penduduk atau tenaga kerja yang hidup atau bekerja pada sektor pertanian dan produk nasional yang berasal dari pertanian (mubyarto, 1989). sektor pertanian sangat rentan terhadap perubahan iklim karena berpengaruh terhadap pola tanam, waktu tanam, produksi, dan kualitas hasil (nurdin, 2011). iklim erat hubungannya dengan perubahan cuaca dan pemanasan global dapat menurunkan produksi pertanian antara 5-20 persen (suberjo, 2009). perubahan iklim merupakan suatu kondisi yang ditandai dengan berubahnya pola iklim dunia yang mengakibatkan feno2mena cuaca yang tidak menentu. perubahan iklim terjadi karena adanya perubahan variabel iklim, seperti suhu udara dan curah hujan yang terjadi secara terus menerus dalam jangka waktu yang panjang antara 50 sampai 100 tahun (kementerian lingkungan hidup, 2004). perubahan iklim juga dipengaruhi oleh kondisi cuaca yang tidak stabil sebagai contoh curah hujan yang tidak menentu, sering terjadi badai, suhu udara yang ekstrim, serta arah angin yang berubah drastis (ratnaningayu, 2013). laporan yang dikeluarkan tahun 2001, intergovernmental panel on climate change menyimpulkan bahwa temperatur udara global telah meningkat 0,6 derajat celsius (1 derajat fahrenheit) sejak 1861. pemanasan tersebut terutama disebabkan oleh aktivitas manusia yang menambah gas-gas rumah kaca ke atmosfer. ipcc memprediksi peningkatan temperatur rata-rata global akan meningkat 1,1 hingga 6,4c (2,0 hingga 11,5f) antara tahun 1990 dan 2100. menurut stocker, et.al; kondisi ini akan mengakibatkan iklim tetap terus menghangat selama periode tertentu akibat emisi yang telah dilepaskan sebelumnya dan karbon dioksida akan tetap berada di atmosfer selama seratus tahun atau lebih sebelum alam mampu menyerapnya kembali (sumaryanto, 2012). dampak dari pemanasan global (global warming) akan mempengaruhi pola presipitasi, evaporasi, water run-off, kelembaban tanah dan variasi iklim yang sangat fluktuatif secara keseluruhan dapat mengancam keberhasilan produksi pangan. penurunan intensitas hujan merupakan salah satu dampak dari perubahan iklim. menurut studi yang dilakukan oleh angles, dkk., (2011) menyebutkan bahwa berkurangnya intensitas hujan adalah alasan terbesar dari penurunan hasil panen petani di lahan kering di dharmaputri, india. penurunan hasil panen tersebut menyebabkan penurunan pendapatan para petani. penurunan pendapatan petani tersebut merupakan dampak jangka pendek, sedangkan dampak jangka panjangnya adalah berakhirnya profesi petani lahan kering (offfarm employment). berkurangnya intensitas hujan merupakan faktor penyebab utama penurunan hasil panen (angles, dkk., 2011). variasi iklim seperti kejadian masa kemarau panjang memiliki dampak yang tinggi pada hasil tanaman lahan kering. perubahan iklim memiliki pengaruh negatif terhadap produksi pertanian (utami, dkk., 2011). penurunan produksi pertanian ini dikarenakan terjadinya penurunan luas lahan panen akibat dari dampak perubahan iklim. hasil dari studi tersebut, kejadian la nina berpengaruh negatif terhadap produksi padi di jawa. variabel luas panen, dan upah buruh berpengaruh positif terhadap produksi padi di jawa. strategi adaptasi yang dilakukan oleh petani berpengaruh positif terhadap produksi tanaman pangan (ayunwuy dkk., 2010). hal ini mengindikasikan bahwa strategi yang dilakukan petani sudah tepat dan bisa dilanjutkan guna mengurangi dampak perubahan iklim. variabel pendidikan, penghasilan, pengalaman bertani, keanggotaan asosiasi petani, dan karakter berani mengambil risiko merupakan faktor yang signifikan yang memepengaruhi petani dalam mekanisme penyelesaian masalah guna mengurangi dampak perubahan iklim (angles, dkk., 2011) angles, dkk. (2011), menunjukkan bahwa secara kualitatif 92,22 persen dari semua sampel mengatakan bahwa berkurangnya intensitas hujan adalah faktor penyebab utama penurunan hasil panen. studi ini membuktikan bahwa variasi iklim seperti kejadian masa kemarau memiliki dampak yang tinggi pada jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015: 42-52 44 hasil tanaman lahan kering. analisis kuantitatif, variabel-variabel seperti pendidikan, penghasilan, pengalaman, keanggotaan asosiasi petani, karakter berani mengambil risiko merupakan faktor yang signifikan dalam mempengaruhi pemakaian mekanisme penyelesaian masalah pada lahan kering. utami, dkk. (2011) melakukan studi mengenai el nino, la nina dan penawaran pangan di jawa. hasil penelitiaannya menunjukkan adanya anomali iklim el nino berpengaruh negatif terhadap produksi padi di pulau jawa. solihin, dkk. (2013) melakukan studi yang bertujuan untuk mengetahui faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi produktivitas tanaman padi dan mengkaji apakah perubahan iklim mempengaruhi hasil pertanian dan keputusan petani untuk mencari pekerjaan baru. studi ini memperoleh hasil bahwa variabel luas lahan secara statistik signifikan mempengaruhi produktivitas tanaman padi secara positif. hasil yang lain mengatakan bahwa penurunan hasil pertanian akibat perubahan iklim dapat meningkatkan probabilitas keinginan petani untuk berganti pekerjaan. ayunwuy, dkk. (2010) melakukan studi di nigeria. hasil dari studi ini adalah petani menyadari perubahan iklim dan dampaknya terhadap produksi tanaman pangan, dan petani telah mampu mengembangkan strategi mata pencaharian, serta adaptasi yang mereka lakukan dengan cara yang terus menerus bisa dilakukan untuk mengatasi dampak perubahan iklim yang tidak menentu terhadap produksi tanaman pangan. soejono, dkk. (2009) melakukan studi dengan tujuan untuk mengetahui pendapatan usahatani padi, efisiensi penggunaan biaya produksi, dan faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi usahatani padi pada kelompok tani patemon ii. variabel independennya adalah luas lahan, tenaga kerja, benih, pupuk dan obat. menggunakan fungsi produksi cobb-douglas yang kemudian diubah menjadi bentuk linear, menghasilkan faktor-faktor yang signifikan terhadap produksi adalah pupuk, obat-obatan dan tenaga kerja. sedangkan faktor yang tidak signifikan berpengaruh terhadap produksi adalah luas lahan dan benih. petani menyadari perubahan iklim dan dampaknya terhadap produksi tanaman pangan telah mampu mengembangkan strategi mata pencaharian, serta adaptasi yang mereka lakukan dengan cara yang terus menerus bisa dilakukan untuk mengatasi dampak perubahan iklim yang tidak menentu terhadap produksi tanaman pangan (ayunwuy, dkk., 2010). soejono, dkk. (2009) menyatakan bahwa faktor-faktor yang signifikan terhadap produksi adalah pupuk, obat-obatan dan tenaga kerja. sedangkan faktor yang tidak signifikan berpengaruh terhadap produksi adalah luas lahan dan benih. tabel 1. kejadian kekeringan beserta dampaknya di kabupaten semarang 2014 no kecamatan banyaknya desa yang mengalami kekeringan luas lahan pertanian yang terdampak kekeringan (ha) puso (ha) 1 bringin 11 desa 45 0 2 pringapus 1 desa 162 72 3 susukan 2 desa 0 0 4 jambu 1 desa 0 0 5 suruh 5 desa 3 0 6 tengaran 4 desa 0 0 7 bancak 3 desa 55 0 8 pabelan 1 desa 5 0 9 tuntang 3 desa 20 0 10 banyubiru 2 desa 46 0 11 ambarawa 3 desa 91 0 12 bandungan 1 desa 13 0 13 bawen 1 desa 54 0 14 ungaran barat 1 desa 6 0 sumber: bpbd dan dinas pertanian kabupaten semarang (2015) pengaruh perubahan iklim pergerakan ... (ida nurul hidayati, suryanto) 45 sejak tahun 1990-an, berbagai kawasan di indonesia sering dilanda kekeringan dan kebanjiran. dampak dari kekeringan adalah gagal panen, peningkatan kematian vegetasi, dan percepatan pelapukan. akibatnya, setiap terjadi kekeringan, ratusan hektar sawah di pulau jawa mengalami gagal panen atau puso (iskandar, 2013). dalam tabel 1 disajikan data mengenai kejadian kekeringan di kabupaten semarang tahun 2014. berdasarkan tabel 1, 14 kecamatan dari 19 kecamatan yang ada di kabupaten semarang mengalami kejadian kekeringan. dalam kejadian kekeringan ini hanya 11 kecamatan yang berdampak pada lahan pertanian. luas daerah pertanian terdampak paling parah adalah kecamatan pringapus yaitu sebesar 162 ha dan mengalami puso sebesar 72 ha. titik berat yang akan dikaji pada studi ini adalah melihat dampak perubahan iklim terhadap produksi pertanian pada lahan rawan kekeringan. selain itu adalah untuk mengetahui strategi adaptasi yang dilakukan oleh para petani lahan rawan kekeringan di kabupaten semarang guna mengurangi dampak perubahan iklim. metode penelitian data studi ini menggunakan metode survey dengan petani yang menggarap lahan rawan kekeringan di wilayah kabupaten semarang dengan desain explanatory design yang menggunakan a two phase method (creswell, et.al. dalam kurniawati, 2012:40). berdasarkan data kejadian kekeringan beserta dampaknya di kabupaten semarang pada tahun 2014, diperoleh bahwa wilayah terdampak yang paling luas adalah kecamatan pringapus, yaitu sebesar 162 ha. kecamatan pringapus juga mengalami puso sebesar 72 ha. kekeringan yang terjadi di kecamatan pringapus hanya pada 1 desa, yaitu desa jatirunggo. pemilihan lokasi studi berdasarkan pertimbangan karena (1) daerah studi mempunyai struktur sosial ekonomi yang relatif kompleks, (2) daerah studi adalah daerah yang rawan kekeringan, berdasarkan pemetaan menggunakan sistem informasi geografis (sig) dan (3) daerah studi merupakan daerah yang sering mengalami puso setiap terjadi kekeringan. data dalam studi ini bersumber dari badan pusat statistik (bps) kabupaten semarang, badan penanggulangan bencana daerah (bpbd), dinas pertanian kabupaten semarang, dan badan perencana pembangunan daerah (bappeda). alat analisis metode analisis data yang digunakan berupa analisis deskriptif dan regresi linear berganda dengan model sebagai berikut: logq = log a + b1 log ll + b2 log modal + b3 log tk + b4 ln peng + b5 ktan + b6 dker+ e 1) selain itu, metode analisis dalam studi ini juga menggunakan model logit. model logit adalah model regresi non-linear yang menghasilkan sebuah persamaan di mana variabel dependen bersifat kategorikal. kategori paling dasar dari model tersebut menghasilkan binary values seperti angka 0 dan 1. angka yang dihasilkan mewakilkan suatu kategori tertentu yang dihasilkan dari perhitungan probabilitas terjadinya kategori tersebut. model analisis yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah: pr( y = 1xi) = 0 + xi + zi + i 2) keterangan: pr(y = 1xi) = probabilitas petani: (1) mengalami dampak perubahan iklim: (a) mengalami perubahan hasil; (b) mengalami gagal panen, (2) melakukan strategi adaptasi: (a) mengubah pola tanam; (b) menggeser waktu tanam, x’ adalah vektor yang mewakili set input dalam pertanian: (a) tenaga kerja (orang); (b) pupuk (kg); (c) pestisida (liter), z’ adalah vektor yang mewakili set karakteristik individu petani: (a) usia; (b) jenis kelamin; (c) tingkat pendidikan; (d) pengalaman bertani (e) keikutsertaan sebagai anggota kelompok tani,  dan  adalah parameter yang diestimasi;  adalah residual dalam model. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015: 42-52 46 hasil dan pembahasan analisis data berdasarkan data kuesioner dikelompokkan menjadi tiga bagian. bagian kesatu dianalisis dengan menggunakan deskriptif kualitatif, bagian kedua menggunakan regresi linier berganda model cobb douglass, dan bagian ketiga dengan menggunakan regresi logistik. 1. persepsi petani terhadap perubahan iklim (a) pengetahuan petani tentang fenomena perubahan iklim. petani di desa jatirunggo telah mengetahui adanya perubahan pada kondisi iklim mikro di desa jatirunggo. hal tersebut berdampak pada penurunan kualitas dan kuantitas hasil panen, bahkan mengalami kegagalan panen sehingga menyebabkan kerugian. meskipun petani merasakan dampak dari perubahan iklim tersebut, namun hanya 23 persen petani yang mengetahui dan memahami tentang fenomena perubahan iklim tersebut. sedangkan 71 persen petani hanya pernah mendengar istilah perubahan iklim dan merasakan dampaknya saja tanpa dapat menjelaskan definisi penyebabnya lebih lanjut. hal ini menunjukkan rendahnya tingkat pengetahuan petani mengenai isu perubahan iklim yang sedang terjadi saat ini. seluruh petani menyatakan bahwa mereka mendapatkan informasi tentang perubahan iklim dari media telivisi, radio, dan sesama petani. petani di desa jatirunggo telah mengetahui adanya perubahan pada beberapa komponen iklim yang biasa digunakan untuk mengukur perubahan iklim. beberapa indikator adanya perubahan iklim yang disampaikan oleh petani dalah adanya pergeseran musim hujan dan kemarau, peningkatan suhu udara, angin bertambah kencang, dan terjadinya kemarau panjang. (b) pergeseran musim di desa jatirungg. pada awalnya, petani di desa jatirunggo terbiasa memperkirakan musim melalui pengeahuan yang umum digunakan masyarakat. sebanyak 100% petani memprediksi musim hujan dimulai setiap bulan oktober sampai mei dan kemarau dari bulan juni sampai september. seluruh petani mengatakan bahwa di desa jatirunggo telah terjadi pergeseran musim yang menyebabkan sulitnya memprediksi awal atau akhir dari musim hujan ataupun musim kemarau. dampak dari perubahan iklim ini menurut petani menyebabkan semakin panjang nya musim kemarau. musim kemarau cenderung tiba pada bulan juni hingga november. pergeseran musim memberikan dampak terhadap peningkatan risiko gagal panen, kerusakan hasil panen, dan penurunan kualitas panen. (c) peningkatan suhu dan kecepatan angin di desa jatirunggo. peningkatan suhu dan perubahan kecepatan angin merupakan parameter dalam pengukuran perubahan iklim (bmkg, 2011). petani menginformasikan bahwa di desa jatirunggo telah terjadi peningkatan suhu dan kecepatan angin. petani menggambarkan bahwa suhu udara saat musim kemarau terkadang terasa ekstrim. saat panas terasa lebih panas dan ketika dingin terasa lebih dingin. persentase pengetahuan petani di desa jatirunggo mengenai perubahan kecepatan angin (94 persen) lebih rendah dari pada persentase pengetahuan pergeseran musim dan peningkatan suhu (100 persen). hal ini diduga berkaitan dengan kondisi fisik faktual yang dirasakan petani sehari-hari. hujan secara fisik dapat dilihat dan dirasakan oleh setiap orang, sedangkan angin tidak dapat dilihat secara fisik, hanya dapat dirasakan dengan tingkat kepekaan yang bervariasi antara satu dengan yang lain. pengetahuan petani mengenai perubahan komponen iklim lebih didasarkan pada pengetahuan yang diperoleh berdasarkan pengalaman yang dirasakan secara pribadi. (d) dampak perubahan iklim terhadap pertanian di desa jatirunggo. tabel 2 menunjukkan pengetahuan petani mengenai dampak negatif perubahan iklim terhadap pertanian. seluruh petani menyatakan perubahan iklim berdampak buruk bagi ketersediaan air dan cenderung menurunkan kualitas hasil panen, sedangkan petani yang menyatakan bahwa perubahan iklim menyebabkan kegagalan panen sebanyak 36 persen dan 38 persen petani menyatakan bahwa mengalami perubahan hasil yang ditandakan dengan menurunnya hasil produksi/panen. berdasarkan hasil regresi pada tabel 2 dapat disusun persamaan sebagai berikut: pengaruh perubahan iklim pergerakan ... (ida nurul hidayati, suryanto) 47 log(prod) = -9,38 + 0,11*log(ll) + (0,000) (0,045) 0,83*log(modal) + 0,04*log(tk) – (0,000) (0,036) 0,01*log(peng) + 0,09*ktan – 0,22*dker (0,565) (0,001) (0,000)   persamaan tersebut menunjukkan hubungan antara modal, pupuk, luas lahan, tenaga kerja, dan dummy daerah kekeringan terhadap produksi pertanian di lahan rawan kekeringan. langkah selanjutnya dari hasil regresi tersebut dilakukan uji statistik dan uji asumsi klasik. pada uji statistik, hasil uji f menunjukkan bahwa variabel luas lahan, modal, tenaga kerja, pengalaman bertani, dummy keanggotaan kelompok tani dan dummy kekeringan secara bersama-sama memiliki pengaruh terhadap produksi pertanian pada lahan rawan kekeringan di kabupaten semarang. sedang uji t menunjukkan bahwa semua variabel berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap produksi pertanian pada lahan rawan kekeringan di kabupaten semarang pada derajat signifikansi 5 persen, kecuali variabel pengalaman bertani yang tidak berpengaruh secara signifikan. sementara koefisien determinasi (r2) adalah sebesar 0,98 yang artinya 98 persen variasi variabel dependen dalam hal ini produksi pertanian dapat dijelaskan oleh variabel independen yaitu luas lahan, modal, tenaga kerja, pengalaman bertani, dummy keanggotaan kelompok tani dan dummy kekeringan. sisanya sebanyak 2 persen dijelaskan oleh variabel lain yang tidak dimasukkan dalam model. selanjutnya, nilai koefisien regresi variabel luas lahan adalah sebesar 0,110 dengan probabilitas 0,0452. sehingga variabel luas lahan mempunyai pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap produksi pertanian. dalam studi ini, semakin tinggi luas lahan yang digunakan untuk bercocok tanam, maka semakin tinggi pula produksi pertanian karena memiliki hubungan yang positif. begitu pula pada variabel modal, memiliki nilai koefisien sebesar 0,832. setiap kenaikan modal sebesar 1 persen maka akan meningkatkan produksi sebesar 83,2 persen. sedang nilai koefisien variabel tenaga kerja adalah sebesar 0,049 dan variabel dummy keanggotaan kelompok tani sebesar 0,092. keduanya memiliki hubungan yang positif dan dapat meningkatkan produksi pertanian. berbeda dengan variabel perubahan iklim yang memiliki nilai koefisien sebesar: -0,224 atau memiliki hubungan negatif, artinya etika kekeringan meningkat sebesar 1 persen maka akan menurunkan hasil produksi sebesar 22,4 persen. variabel luas lahan, modal, tenaga kerja, anggota kelompok tani, dan daerah kekeringan pada hasil studi memiliki pengaruh yang sama dengan studi sebelumnya yaitu berpengaruh secara positif dan signifikan. hasil studi yang tidak sesuai dengan hipotesis yaitu variabel pengalaman bertani. variabel ini tidak signifikan karena diduga petani dalam melakukan produksi pertanian cenderung memakai cara turun temurun, tidak berdasarkan pengalaman bertani nya dan cenderung memakai cara yang sama diantara para petani. penggunaan cara secara turun temurun ini lah yang tidak membedakan hasil produksi antara petani yang memiliki pengalaman bertani lama dan yang belum memiliki pengalaman bertani lama. tabel 2. hasil uji regresi log linier berganda no nama variabel koefisien t hitung prob. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 konstanta log(ll) log(modal) log(tk) log(peng) (ktan) (dker) -9,386 0,110 0,832 0,049 -0,018 0,092 -0,224 -26,158 2,033 14,988 2,129 -0,576 3,423 -8,959 0,0000 0,0452 0,0000 0,0362 0,5655 0,0010 0,0000 r-squared adjusted r-squared durbin-watson stat 0,987620 0,986725 2,199492 f-statistic prob(f-statistik) 1103,530 0,000000 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015: 42-52 48 regresi logistik a. probabilitas individu petani mengalami gagal panen. berdasarkan hasil perhitungan diperoleh persamaan regresi logistik: prob gagal panen = -13,59 + 1,29*age – (0,285) 2,67*jk – 1,19*ktan – 4,37*pend – (0,071) (0,254) (0,234) 1,31*peng – 0,87*tk + 4,16*dker + (0,276) (0,119) (0,000) 1,65*pest – 0,01*pup (0,410) (0,709) persamaan tersebut menunjukkan hubungan antara usia, jenis kelamin, pendidikan, pengalaman bertani, keanggotaan kelompok tani, daerah kekeringan, penggunaan pestisida dan pupuk terhadap probabilitas petani mengalami gagal panen. tabel 5. hasil perhitungan nilai odds ratio variabel yang berpengaruh terhadap probabilitas petani mengalami gagal panen   variabel z-statistik odds rasio daerah kekeringan 3,367403 e3,367403 29,00 jenis kelamin 1,801287 e1,801287 6,05    pada tabel 5 menunjukkan bahwa variabel yang mempengaruhi probabilitas petani mengalami gagal panen adalah variabel daerah kekeringan dan jenis kelamin. daerah kekeringan memiliki nilai odds rasio sebesar 29,00 hal ini berarti setiap tabel 3. perbandingan hasil studi dengan studi sebelumnya variabel studi sebelumnya hipotesis hasil studi luas lahan berpengaruh secara positif berpengaruh secara positif berpengaruh secara positif modal berpengaruh secara positif berpengaruh secara positif berpengaruh secara positif tenaga kerja berpengaruh secara positif berpengaruh secara positif berpengaruh secara positif pengalaman bertani berpengaruh secara positif berpengaruh secara positif tidak signifikan (negatif) anggota kelompok tani berpengaruh secara positif berpengaruh secara positif berpengaruh secara positif daerah kekeringan berpengaruh secara negatif berpengaruh secara negatif berpengaruh secara negatif sumber: beberapa jurnal terpilih (2009-2013) dan hasil studi (2015) tabel 4. hasil analisis dengan regresi logistik no nama variabel koefisien z-satistic prob. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 intercept usia (age) jenis kelamin (jk) kelompok tani (ktan) pendidikan (pend) pengalaman bertani (peng) tenaga kerja (tk) daerah kekeringan (dker) pestisida (pest) pupuk (pup) -14,209 1,307 -2,403 -1,345 -4,418 -1,342 -0,931 4,599 1,655 -0,013 -1,021 1,189 -1,718 -1,331 -1,309 -1,224 -1,611 3,939 0,823 -0,372 0,3708 0,2851 0,0717* 0,2542 0,2347 0,2762 0,1192 0,0008** 0,4104 0,7092 mcfadden r-squared 0,603 lr-statistic prob(lr-statistik) 70,65879 0,000000 * : signifikan pada level 10%; ** : signifikan pada level 5%; ***signifikan pada level 1% pengaruh perubahan iklim pergerakan ... (ida nurul hidayati, suryanto) 49 penambahan luas daerah yang terdampak kekeringan sebesar 1 persen probabilitas petani mengalami gagal panen akan meningkat sebesar 29 persen. jenis kelamin memiliki odds rasio sebesar 6,05, artinya petani yang berjenis kelamin laki-laki akan menurunkan probabilitas mengalami gagal panen sebesar 6,05 persen.   b. probabilitas petani mengalami penurunan hasil. berdasarkan hasil perhitungan diperoleh persamaan regresi logistik: prob. perubahan hasil = -13,00 + 0,37*age + (0,396) 7,52*dker – 2,09*jk – 3,59*ktan + (0,000) (0,235) (0,006) 1,06*pend – 0,21*peng – 0,40*tk – (0,495) (0,612) (0,563) 4,57*pest + 0,08*pup (0,109) (0,071) persamaan tersebut menunjukkan hubungan antara usia, jenis kelamin, pendidikan, pengalaman bertani, keanggotaan kelompok tani, daerah kekeringan, penggunaan pestisida dan pupuk terhadap probabilitas petani mengalami perubahan hasil. pada tabel 6 menunjukkan variabel yang mempengaruhi probabilitas petani mengalami perubahan hasil panen adalah variabel anggota kelompok tani, daerah kekeringan dan pupuk. jika petani menjadi anggota kelompok tani, maka akan menurunkan probabilitas petani mengalami perubahan hasil pertanian sebesar 15,31 persen. jika daerah kering bertambah sebesar 1 persen akan meningkatkan probabilitas petani mengalami perubahan hasil sebesar 48,43 persen. penambahan penggunaan pupuk sebesar 1 persen akan meningkatkan probabilitas petani mengalami perubahan hasil sebesar 6,07 persen. tabel 6. hasil perhitungan nilai odds ratio variabel yang berpengaruh terhadap probabilitas petani mengalami penurunan hasil   variabel z-statistik odds rasio anggota kelompok tani -2,728921 e2,728921 15,31 daerah kekeringan 3,907070 e3,907070 49,75 pupuk 1,804071 e1,804071 6,07   c. probabilitas petani menggeser waktu tanam. berdasarkan hasil perhitungan diperoleh persamaan regresi logistik: pr. waktu = 3,65 – 0,09*age + 0,69*dker + (0,3039) (0,4191) 3,17*dummy_ph + 0,94*jk (0,0013) (0,3341) 0,74*ktan – 0,98*pend – 0,03*peng (0,3261) (0,2172) (0,9694) persamaan tersebut menunjukkan hubungan antara variabel usia, daerah kekeringan, mengalami perubahan hasil, jenis kelamin, anggota kelompok tani, pendidikan, dan pengalaman tabel 5. hasil analisis dengan regresi logistik no nama variabel koefisien z-statistic prob. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 intercept usia (age) jenis kelamin (jk) kelompok tani (ktan) pendidikan (pend) pengalaman bertani (peng) tenaga kerja (tk) daerah kekeringan (dker) pestisida (pest) pupuk (pup) -13,000 0,373 -2,093 -3,598 1,065 -0,214 -0,404 7,524 -4,572 0,083 -1,577 0,848 -1,187 -2,728 0,681 -0,506 -0,577 3,907 -1,600 1,804 0,1147 0,3963 0,2350 0,0064* 0,4955 0,6125 0,5638 0,0001* 0,1095 0,0712** mcfadden r-squared 0,703 lr-statistic prob(lr-statistik) 83,93454 0,000000 * : signifikan pada level 10% ** : signifikan pada level 5% jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015: 42-52 50 bertani terhadap probabilitas petani untuk menggeser waktu tanam. tabel 8. hasil perhitungan nilai odds ratio variabel yang berpengaruh terhadap probabilitas petani menggeser waktu tanam   variabel zstatistik odds rasio perubahan hasil 3,222866 e3,222866 25,09   variabel yang mempengaruhi probabilitas petani menggeser waktu tanam adalah variabel perubahan hasil yaitu sebesar 25,09. dapat diartikan bahwa ketika perubahan hasil atau mengalami penurunan hasil panen meningkat sebesar 1 persen maka probabilitas petani mengubah waktu tanam meningkat sebesar 25,09 persen. pergeseran waktu tanam ini dilakukan petani sebagai upaya menyesuaikan kegiatan pertaniannya dengan ketidakpastian musim.   d. probabilitas petani mengubah pola tanam berdasarkan hasil perhitungan diperoleh persamaan regresi logistik: pr. pola = -0,81 – 0,08*age + 3,26*dker + (0,6604) (0,0214) 3,55*dummy_ph + 1,27*jk – 0,08*ktan – (0,0011) (0,4591) (0,9298) 0,35*pend + 0,05*peng (0,7329) (0,7557) persamaan tersebut menunjukkan hubungan antara usia, daerah kekeringan, perubahan hasil, jenis kelamin, anggota kelompok tani, pendidikan, dan pengalaman bertani terhadap probabilitas petani mengubah pola tanam. variabel yang mempengaruhi probabilitas petani mengubah pola tanam adalah daerah kekeringan dan perubahan hasil. odds rasio daerah kekeringan yaitu sebesar 9,98. dapat diartikan bahwa peningkatan luas daerah kekeringan sebesar 1 persen dapat meningkatkan petani mengubah pola tanam sebesar 9,98 persen. tabel 9. hasil analisis dengan regresi logistik no nama variabel koefisien z-statistic prob. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 intercept usia daerah kekeringan mengalami perubahan hasil jenis kelamin anggota kelompok tani pendidikan pengalaman bertani -0,814 -0,080 3,262 3,552 1,274 -0,088 -0,356 0,050 -0,170 -0,439 2,301 3,254 0,740 -0,075 -0,341 0,311 0,8647 0,6604 0,0214 0,0011 0,4591 0,9398 0,7329 0,7557 mcfadden r-squared 0,625 lr-statistic prob(lr-statistik) 75,80891 0,000000 tabel 7. hasil analisis dengan regresi logistik no nama variabel koefisien z-satistic prob. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 intercept usia daerah kekeringan mengalami perubahan hasil jenis kelamin anggota kelompok tani pendidikan pengalaman bertani 3,656 -0,094 0,698 3,174 0,945 -0,742 -0,984 -0,003 1,028 -0,807 0,746 3,222 0,965 -0,982 -1,233 -0,038 0,3039 0,4191 0,4555 0,0013 0,3341 0,3261 0,2172 0,9694 mcfadden r-squared 0,422 lr-statistic prob(lr-statistik) 48,41178 0,000000 pengaruh perubahan iklim pergerakan ... (ida nurul hidayati, suryanto) 51 tabel 10. hasil perhitungan nilai odds ratio variabel yang berpengaruh terhadap probabilitas petani mengubah pola tanam   variabel z-statistik odds rasio daerah kekeringan 2,301235 e 2,301235 9,98 perubahan hasil 3,254549 e3,254549 25,90 variabel perubahan hasil memiliki odds rasio sebesar 25,90. dapat diartikan bahwa ketika petani mengalami perubahan hasil atau penurunan hasil produksi meningkat sebesar 1 persen maka probabilitas petani mengubah pola tanam meningkat sebesar 20,29 persen. perubahan pola tanam ini umumnya dilakukan petani karena mengalami penurunan hasil akibat berada di wilayah yang rawan kekeringan. simpulan modal mempunyai pengaruh yang signifikan secara statistik pada derajat kepercayaan 5 persen. semakin banyak modal yang digunakan maka semakin tinggi pula hasil produksi pertanian. sementara, luas lahan mempunyai pengaruh yang signifikan secara statistik pada tingkat kepercayaan 5 persen sehingga semakin luas lahan yang digunakan untuk bercocok tanam, maka hasil produksi nya juga semakin banyak. demikian juga pada pengalaman bertani mempunyai pengaruh yang tidak signifikan pada tingkat kepercayaan 5 persen. hal ini diduga karena petani menggunakan cara turuntemurun dalam melakukan produksi pertanian, sehingga tidak ada perbedaan hasil antara petani yang sudah lama bertani dengan yang belum memiliki pengalaman lama sebagai petani. selanjutnya, keikutsertaan sebagai anggota kelompok tani mempunyai pengaruh yang signifikan secara statistik pada tingkat kepercayaan 5 persen sehingga jika petani menjadi anggota dalam kelompok tani akan cenderung meningkatkan produksi pertaniannya karena akan memiliki informasi lebih mengenai pertanian. perubahan iklim yang digambarkan dengan keadaan kekeringan mempunyai pengaruh yang signifikan pada tingkat kepercayaan 5 persen. lahan yang teridentifikasi sebagai lahan rawan kekeringan berpotensi menurunkan produksi pertanian. pemerintah diharapkan dapat membantu tabel 11. ringkasan hasil estimasi menggunakan regresi logistik variabel bebas gagal panen [ya = 1] penurunan hasil [ya = 1] menggeser waktu tanam [ya = 1] mengubah pola tanam [ya = 1] intercept -14,209 (0,3708) -13,000 (0,1147) 3,656 (0,3039) -0,814 (0,8647) usia 1,307 (0,2851) 0,373 (0,3963) -0,094 (0,4191) -0,080 (0,6604) jenis kelamin -2,403 (0,0717) -2,093 (0,2350) 0,945 (0,3341) 1,247 (0,4591) anggota kelompok tani -1,345 (0,2542) -3,598 (0,0064) -0,742 (0,3261) -0,088 (0,9398) pendidikan -4,418 (0,2347) 1,065 (0,4955) -0,984 (0,2172) -0,356 (0,7329) pengalaman bertani -1,342 (0,2762) -0,214 (0,6125) -0,003 (0,9694) 0,050 (0,7557) tenaga kerja -0,931 (0,1192) -0,404 (0,5638) daerah kekeringan 4,599 (0,0008) 7,524 (0,0001) 0,698 (0,4555) 3,262 (0,0214) pestisida 1,655 (0,4104) -4,572 (0,1095) pupuk -0,013 (0,7092) 0,083 (0,0712) mengalami perubahan hasil 3,174 (0,0013) 3,552 (0,0011) sumber: analisis data primer dengan e-views 6, 2015 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015: 42-52 52 pengembangan usaha tani padi, misalnya memperlancar sistem pendistribusian pupuk agar tidak terciptanya kelangkaan pupuk dan juga mengadakan lembaga simpan pinjam dan pengenalan asuransi pertanian yang dapat meringankan petani dalam masalah pengadaan modal usaha tani dan kerugian finansial sebagai dampak perubahan iklim. petani yang tinggal di daerah rawan kekeringan harus meningkatkan strategi adaptasi yang dilakukan untuk mengurangi dampak kerugian akibat perubahan iklim. petani dapat mengubah pola tanam maupun menggeser waktu tanam disesuaikan dengan datangnya musim penghujan guna mengurangi risiko gagal panen. petani juga dapat membuat sumur resapan di sekitar sawah guna mengairi sawah ketika musim kemarau tiba. daftar pustaka angles, chinnadurai, and sundar. (2011). awareness on impact of climate change on dryland agriculture and coping mechanisms of dryland farmers. indian journal of agricultural economics. vol.66, hlm. 365372. ayunwuy, kuponiyi, ogunlade, and oyetoro. (2010). farmers perception of impact of climate changes on food crop production in ogbomoso agricultural zone of oyo state, nigeria. continental journal agricultural economics. vol.4, hlm.19-25. badan koordinasi nasional penanggulangan bencana. (2007). diakses pada 27 juli 2014, dari: http://www.bakornaspb.go.id/new/id. badan penanggulangan bencana daerah kabupaten semarang. (2014). data wilayah berdampak kekeringan di kabupaten semarang. semarang: bpbd kabupaten semarang. dinas pertanian kabupaten semarang. (2014). rekapitulasi dampak perubahan iklim kabupaten semarang. semarang: dinas pertanian, perkebunan, dan kehutanan kab. semarang. kementerian lingkungan hidup. (2004). perubahan iklim global. diakses pada 27 juli 2014, dari: http:/climatechange.menlh.go.id. kurniawati, fitri. 2012. pengetahuan dan adaptasi petani sayuran terhadap perubahan iklim. thesis. bandung: program pascasarjana, universitas padjajaran. mubyarto. (1989). pengantar ekonomi pertanian. jakarta: lp3es. muslim, chairul. (2013). mitigasi perubahan iklim dalam mempertahankan produktivitas tanah padi sawah. jurnal penelitian pertanian terapan. vol.13, hlm. 211-222. nurdin. (2011). antisipasi perubahan iklim untuk keberlanjutan ketahanan pangan. sulawesi utara: universitas negeri gorontalo. suberjo, (2009). adaptasi pertanian dalam pemanasan global. dosen fakultas pertanian ugm yogyakarta dan mahasiswa doktoral the university of tokyo. diakses pada 12 agustus 2014, dari: http://subejo.staff.ugm.ac.id/?p=108. sumaryanto. (2012). strategi peningkatan kapasitas adaptasi petani tanaman pangan menghadapi perubahan iklim. forum penelitian agro ekonomi. vol. 30, hlm.73-89. soejono, d., sunarsih, m., dan diantoro, k. (2009). faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi produksi padi pada kelompok tani patemon ii di desa patemon kecamatan tlogosari kabupaten bondowoso. j-sep. vol. 3, hlm. 55-59. solihin, a., dan sukartini, n.m. (2013). respon petani terhadap perkembangan teknologi dan perubahan iklim: studi kasus di desa gadungan, tabanan, bali. jurnal ekonomi kuantitatif terapan. vol. 6, hlm. 128-139. undp. (2007). sisi lain perubahan iklim, mengapa indonesia harus beradaptasi untuk melindungi rakyat miskin. jakarta: undp indonesia. utami, jamhari, dan suhatmini hardyastuti. (2011). el nino, la nina dan penawaran pangan di jawa, indonesia. jurnal ekonomi pembangunan. vol. 12: 2, hlm. 257-271. image (2).jpg image (3).jpg image (4).jpg image (5).jpg image (6).jpg image (7).jpg image (8).jpg image (9).jpg image (10).jpg image (11).jpg image (12).jpg image (13).jpg image (14).jpg image (15).jpg image (16).jpg microsoft word 07-ayif jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 13, nomor 1, april 2012, hlm.72-82   kebijakan fiskal indonesia dalam perspektif ekonomi islam: studi kasus dalam mengentaskan kemiskinan ayief fathurrahman fakultas ekonomi universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta jalan lingkar selatan, tamantirto, kasihan, bantul, yogyakarta e-mail: ayief_ospp@yahoo.com abstract: poverty reduction efforts can be encapsulated in one sentence, namely "give opportunities to the poor families and communities to overcome their problems independently." this means the government has to reposition their roles, from its role as agent of empowerment become facilitator of empowerment. islam considers that poverty is a very complex phenomenon, poverty is not only related to cultural problems, but also structural problems which concern how state makes fiscal policy-oriented poverty reduction. culturally, islam has recommended to foster the role of each individual in improving the quality of life and foster social cohesion through zakat, infaq, and sadaqah. structurally, islam has laid down a central role of state in creating the distribution of income and wealth in a fair and equitable and maintaining the stability and sustainability of economic development in the process of progress and equality as well as a facilitator of community in finding solutions toward a more decent standard of living. keywords: fiscal policy, poverty reduction, infaq, sadaqah, zakat abstrak: upaya pengentasan kemiskinan dapat dirumuskan dalam satu kalimat, yaitu 'memberikan kesempatan kepada keluarga miskin dan masyarakat untuk mengatasi masalahmasalah mereka secara mandiri. ini berarti pemerintah harus menata kembali peran mereka, dari perannya sebagai agen pemberdayaan menjadi fasilitator pemberdayaan. islam menganggap bahwa kemiskinan merupakan fenomena yang sangat kompleks, kemiskinan tidak hanya terkait dengan masalah budaya, tetapi juga masalah struktural yang menyangkut upaya negara membuat kebijakan fiskal yang berorientasi mengurangi kemiskinan. dari sudut pandang budaya, islam telah merekomendasikan untuk mendorong peran setiap individu dalam meningkatkan kualitas hidup dan mendorong kohesi sosial melalui zakat, infaq dan shadaqah. secara struktural, islam telah meletakkan peran sentral dari negara dalam menciptakan distribusi pendapatan dan kekayaan dengan cara yang adil dan merata dan menjaga stabilitas dan kerberlanjutan dari pembangunan ekonomi dalam proses kemajuan dan kesetaraan serta fasilitor masyarakat dalam mencari solusi ke arah standar hidup yang lebih layak kata kunci: kebijakan fiskal, pengurangan kemiskinan, infaq, sadaqah, zakat pendahuluan negara adalah pemegang otoritas tertinggi dalam merumuskan suatu kebijakan. kebijakan pemerintah yang kerapkali bersinggungan langsung dan mempengaruhi iklim aktivitas masyarakat adalah kebijakan di bidang ekonomi. salah satu kebijakan penting yang berada di dalam otoritas pemerintah adalah kebijakan fiskal, dimana negara berperan dalam mengatur kegiatan ekonomi agar tetap terjaga stabilitas dan kesejahteraan rakyatnya, sehingga dapat membantu untuk mengatasi dari persoalan fundamental kemiskinan dan pengangguran. paling tidak, fungsi pemerintah dalam perekonomian nasional yaitu melakukan upaya untuk meningkatkan efisiensi perekonomian nasional, meningkatkan keadilan berkenaan dengan distribusi pendapatan antara kelompok-kelompok dalam masyarakat, mengkebijakan fiskal indonesia (ayief fathurrahman) 73 usahakan stabilitas ekonomi serta mengatur perpajakan dan pengeluaran negara. di dalam catatan sejarah peradaban islam, negara juga difungsikan sebagai pemegang peran vital dalam mengatur kebijakan ekonomi yang dibangun di atas prinsip kemaslahatan dan kesejahteraan rakyat. bentuk peran negara dalam sejarah islam atas masalah ini diatur melalui institusi baitul mal (karim, 2004: 59). harta yang dikumpulkan di dalam baitul mal ini dialokasikan kepada orang-orang yang berhak dan dibelanjakan untuk membayar jasa yang diberikan individu kepada negara, mengatasi kemiskinan dan kelaparan, tunjangan dan penyediaan lapangan kerja, modal usaha bagi masyarakat, pembangunan infrastruktur dan pelayan publik, dan lain-lainnya. di indonesia, melalui perpres nomor 18 tahun 2007, sasaran pembangunan ekonomi tahunan indonesia diarahkan untuk mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi dalam rangka memperluas lapangan pekerjaan dan mengurangi tingkat kemiskinan. sasaran pertumbuhan ekonomi yang diharapkan adalah pertumbuhan yang berkualitas yaitu pertumbuhan yang dapat mendistribusikan pendapatan dan lapangan pekerjaan. sedangkan percepatan perluasan lapangan pekerjaan diarahkan kepada peningkatan pertumbuhan sektor yang banyak menyerap tenaga kerja. mengenai penanggulangan kemiskinan, fokus sasaran adalah bagaimana meningkatkan pendapatan secara merata dan memberikan akses yang lebih luas bagi rakyat untuk mendapatkan pendidikan, kesehatan, air bersih, dan kebutuhan dasar lainnya (departemen keuangan ri ditjen anggaran, 2012). pembahasan seputar kebijakan fiskal kebijakan fiskal pada dasarnya merupakan kebijakan yang mengatur tentang penerimaan dan pengeluaran negara. penerimaan dari negara bersumber dari pajak, penerimaan bukan pajak dan bahkan penerimaan yang berasal pinjaman/bantuan luar negeri dari luar negeri sebelum masa reformasi dikatagorikan sebagai penerimaan negara.1 dengan demikian kebijakan fiskal adalah kebijakan pemerintah dalam mengelola keuangan negara sedemikian rupa sehingga dapat menunjang perekonomian nasional: produksi, konsumsi, investasi, kesempatan kerja, dan kestabilan harga. artinya keuangan negara tidak hanya penting untuk membiayai tugas rutin pemerintah saja, tetapi juga sebagai “sarana” untuk mewujudkan sasaran pembangunan: pertumbuhan ekonomi, kestabilan dan pemerataan pendapatan (gilarso, 2004: 148). jika pengeluaran pemerintah lebih besar dari penerimaan pajak pada periode waktu tertentu, umumnya satu tahun, maka pemerintah mengalami defisit anggaran. sebaliknya jika penerimaan pajak lebih tinggi dibanding pengeluaran pemerintah, maka pemerintah mengalami surplus anggaran. pemerintah membiayai defisit anggaran dengan meminjam, sedangkan ketika terjadi surplus anggaran, beban hutang pemerintah relatif lebih ringan (mishkin, 2008: 15-16). dengan demikian, kebijakan fiskal merupakan pengelolaan keuangan negara dan terbatas pada sumber-sumber penerimaan serta alokasi pengeluaran negara yang tercantum dalam apbn (parcoyo dan antyo parcoyo, 2004: 22). di antara pendapatan negara seperti: bea dan cukai, devisa negara, pariwisata, pajak penghasilan, pajak bumi dan bangunan, impor, dan lain-lain. sedangkan untuk pengeluaran negara misalnya: belanja persenjataan, pesawat, proyek pemerintah, pembangunan sarana dan prasarana umum, atau program lain yang berkaitan dengan kesejahteraan masyarakat. kebijakan fiskal merupakan salah satu sub bidang pengelolaan keuangan negara yang demikian luas, di samping subbidang pengelolaan moneter, dan sub bidang pengelolaan kekayaan negara. subbidang pengelolaan fiskal meliputi enam fungsi, yaitu: (suminto, 2004) 1 pinjaman luar negeri akan dimasukkan ke dalam apbn sifatnya hanya in and out, artinya penerimaan dari sumber ini akan tercantum sebagai penerimaan negara dalam tahun anggaran yang sama, merupakan sumber pengeluaran pembangunan untuk membiayai berbagai proyek pembangunan dalam jumlah yang sama. baca lebih lanjut hadi soesastro dkk (penyunting), pemikiran dan permasalahan ekonomi di indonesia dalam setengah abad terakhir, (yogyakarta : kanisius, 2005), hlm 335 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 13, nomor 1, april 2012: 72-82 74 (1) fungsi pengelolaan kebijakan ekonomi makro dan fiskal. fungsi pengelolaan kebijakan ekonomi makro dan fiskal ini meliputi penyusunan nota keuangan dan rapbn, serta perkembangan dan perubahannya, analisis kebijakan, evaluasi dan perkiraan perkembangan ekonomi makro, pendapatan negara, belanja negara, pembiayaan, analisis kebijakan, evaluasi dan perkiraan perkembangan fiskal dalam rangka kerjasama internasional dan regional, penyusunan rencana pendapatan negara. (2) fungsi penganggaran. fungsi ini meliputi penyiapan, perumusan, dan pelaksanaan kebijakan, serta perumusan standar, norma, pedoman, kriteria, prosedur dan pemberian bimbingan teknis dan evaluasi di bidang apbn.2 (3) fungsi administrasi perpajakan. (4) fungsi administrasi kepabeanan. (5) fungsi perbendaharaan. fungsi perbendaharaan meliputi perumusan kebijakan, standard, sistem dan prosedur di bidang pelaksanaan penerimaan dan pengeluaran negara, pengadaan barang dan jasa instansi pemerintah serta akuntansi pemerintah pusat dan daerah, pelaksanaan penerimaan dan pengeluaran negara, pengelolaan kas negara dan perencanaan penerimaan dan pengeluaran, pengelolaan utang dalam negeri dan luar negeri, pengelolaan piutang, pengelolaan barang milik/ kekayaan negara (bm/kn). (6) fungsi pengawasan keuangan. menurut boediono, terdapat tiga fungsi pokok kebijakan fiskal, yaitu: pertama, fungsi alokasi yaitu untuk mengalokasikan faktor-faktor produksi yang tersedia dalam masyarakat sedemikian rupa sehingga kebutuhan masyarakat akan barang dan jasa dapat terpenuhi.. kedua, fungsi distribusi, yang pada pokoknya mempunyai tujuan berupa terselenggaranya pembagian pendapatan nasional yang adil. ketiga, fungsi stabilisasi, yaitu terjaminnya stabilisasi dalam pemerintahan suatu negara, terrnasuk dalam fungsi ini adalah terpeliharanya tingkat kesempatan kerja yang tinggi, tingkat harga yang relatif stabil dan tingkat 2 anggaran pendapatan dan belanja negara (apbn) adalah rencana keuangan tahunan pemerintahan negara yang disetujui oleh dewan perwakilan rakyat. (pasal 1 angka 7, uu no. 17/2003). merujuk pasal 12 uu no. 1/2004 tentang perbendaharaan negara. pertumbuhan ekonomi yang cukup memadai (supriyanto, 2005). dalam sejarah islam, kebijakan fiskal menempati posisi strategis dalam rangka membangun tata kelola keuangan negara dengan terencana dan terarah. adiwarman karim dalam bukunya sejarah pemikiran ekonomi islam, menyebutkan bahwa paling tidak instrumen kebijakan fiskal yang terekam di awal pemerintahan islam sebagai berikut: (amalia, 2005:19-20) (1) peningkatan pendapatan nasional dan tingkat partisipasi kerja. sebagai pemimpin, rasulullah telah mengantongi langkah-langkah perencanaan untuk memulai intensifikasi pembangunan masyakarakat. ukhuwwah islamiyah, persaudaraan sesama muslim, antara golongan muhajirin dan golongan anshor dijadikan kunci oleh rasulullah untuk meningkatkan penpatan nasional. hal ini menyebabkan terjadinya distribusi pendapatan yang berimplikasi pada peningkatan permintaan total di madinah. selain itu, persaudaraan ini berdampak positif terhadap tersedianya lapangan kerja, terutama bagi kaum muhajirin. dalam aplikasinya, menggunakan akad muzara’ah musaqat, dan mudharabah. (2) kebijakan pajak. penerapan kebijakan pajak yang dilakukan rasulullah seperti kharaj, jizyah, khumus, dan zakat menyebabkan terciptanya kestabilan harga dan mengurangi tingkat inflasi. pajak ini, khususnya khums, mendorong stabilitas pendapatan dan produksi total pada saat terjadi stagnasi dan penurunan permintaan dan penawaran agregat. kebijakan ini juga tidak menyebabkan penurunan harga ataupun jumlah produksi (karim, 2004: 153) (3) anggaran. dalam menyusun anggaran, selalu diprioritaskan untuk pembelanjaan yang mengarah pada kepentingan umum, seperti pembangunan infrastruktur. sehingga pada gilirannya, menciptakan pertumbuhan dan pemerataan ekonomi masyarakat. dengan demikian, nampak pada zaman rasulullah, pengaturan apbn dilakukan secara cermat, efektif, dan efisien, menyebabkan jarang terjadinya defisit anggaran meskipun sering terjadi peperangan (karim, 2004: 153). (4) kebijakan fiskal khusus. dalam menerapkan kebijakan fiskal secara khusus, rasulukebijakan fiskal indonesia (ayief fathurrahman) 75 llah melakukannya dengan berlandaskan dengan persaudaraan. adapun instrumen kebijakan yang diterapkan yaitu: pertama, memberikan bantuan secara sukarela untuk memenuhi kebutuhan kaum muslimin yang kekuarangan. kedua, meminjam peralatan dari kaum non-muslim secara cuma-cuma dengan jaminan pengembalian dan ganti rugi bila terjadi kerusakan. ketiga, meminjam uang tertentu dan diberikan kepada mua’allaf. keempat, menerapkan kebijakan insentif untuk menjaga pengeluaran dan meningkatkan partisipasi kerja dan produksi kaum muslimin. (karim, 2004: 154). kebijakan fiskal indonesia dari masa ke masa dalam catatan sejarah, memang tak bisa dipungkiri bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi indonesia dari masa ke masa memang sudah melaju pesat. namun jika ditelusuri dalam lembaran sejarah perekonomian indonesia, terutama pada masa orde lama, pembangunan ekonomi indonesia relatif statis. berbagai ketidakstabilan politik dan kendala keterbatasan sumber daya manusia telah menyebabkan selama waktu 20 tahun setelah kemerdekaan itu tak banyak sumberdaya yang tergarap (hamid, 2000: 5). tak jauh berbeda dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang ditorehkan oleh renzim orde baru. indikator ini antara lain bisa dilihat pada kondisi utang luar negeri, inflasi, pertimbuhan ekonomi, kemiskinan, defisit, dan anggaran.3 di era reformasi, bukan berarti dengan beralihnya pemegang kebijakan beralih pula kondisi perekonomian indonesia, dari keterpurukan menjadi kesejahteraan. akan tetapi persoalan-persoalan ekonomi tak akan bosan menyapa bumi pertiwi ini. paling tidak, terdapat tiga isu hangat yang seringkali dperbincangkan kaitannya dengan kebijakan 3 kemerosotan ini dapat dilihat dari laju pertumbuhan ekonomi dan pendapatan per kapita masyarakat. dalam kaitan ini, orde lama mewariskan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang lamban, dan mengalami pertumbuhan nol persen di tahun 1966. namun laju pertumbuhan ekonomi yang ditinggalkan orde baru jauh lebih parah diperkirakan pada tahun 1998 negatif sekitar 15%. untuk lebih mendalam baca edy suandi hamid, perekonomian indonesia: masalah kebijakan kontemporer, (yogyakarta: uii press, 2000), hlm 15-16 fiskal di indonesia. ketiga isu yang dimaksud adalah: (1) subsidi bahan bakar minyak (bbm). persoalan utama subsidi bbm saat ini adalah menyangkut soal besarnya jumlah subsidi dan ketidaksesuian dengan prinsip keadilan. data kementerian energi dan sumber daya mineral (esdm) menyebutkan subsidi bbm pada 2010 sebesar 181 persen terhadap subsidi bbm 2009. volume bbm bersubsidi 2010 mencapai 38,2 juta kiloliter (kl) atau melampaui kuota apbn yang sebesar 36,5 juta kl. premium merupakan jenis bbm terbanyak, yaitu sebesar 60 persen atau 23,1 juta kl. adapun realisasi bbm bersubsidi 2009 sebesar 37,7 kl. pengguna terbesar dari subsidi itu adalah transportasi darat, yakni 89 persen atau 32,48 juta kl. konsumsi premium pada sektor transportasi darat didominasi mobil pribadi, yakni 53 persen atau 13,3 juta kl dari total konsumsi premium untuk transportasi darat. dominannya konsumsi premium pada sektor transportasi darat oleh kendaraan pribadi dinilai kebanyakan pihak, termasuk pemerintah, merupakan kenyataan yang tidak mencerminkan keadilan (buana, 2012). padahal yang membeli bbm adalah seluruh masyarakat tanpa kecuali apa dia kaya atau miskin (supriyanto, 2005). ketidakadilan inilah yang telah mengakibatkan semakin melebarnya ketimpangan ekonomi antarpenduduk di indonesia. (2) utang luar negeri. sejak tahun 1997 indonesia sebagai anggota imf menggunakan haknya untuk mernperoleh bantuan. namun yang terjadi, baik sebelum dan sesudah krisis ini, justru semakin membenamkan indonesia dalam jebakan utang yang semakin besar. implikasi dari beban utang ini akan berdampak meningkatnya beban rakyat, dan fasilitas publik yang seharusnya bisa disediakan menjadi berkurang karena dana harus dialokasikan untuk mencicil utang dan membayar bunganya. semakin besar utang, maka semakin besar pula bunganya, dan hal ini akan memaksa pemerintah menarik pajak kebih besar lagi untuk memenuhi kewajiban fiskalnya.4 kenaikan 4 memang sumber pembayaran utang ini tidak semata-mata dari pajak saja, pemerintah juga memperoleh penerimaan dari sumber penjualan minyak bumi atau bagi hasil migas yang dijual di pasar dunia. namun nampaknya semua itu akan sulit diandalkan dalam jangka panjang. baca lebih jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 13, nomor 1, april 2012: 72-82 76 pajak, jelas akan berdampak pada naiknya harga-harga barang produksi, sehingga yang lagi-lagi terpojokan adalah kaum miskin yang terbatas pendapatannya. kementerian keuangan mencatat total utang pemerintah per 31 desember 2010 mencapai rp1.676 triliun. meskipun laporan perkembangan utang negara direktorat jenderal pengelolaan utang kementerian keuangan edisi januari 2011 mencatat angka tersebut merupakan angka sangat sementara menggunakan patokan kurs rp8.991 per dollar amerika serikat.5 (3) prediksi besaran anggaran. gejolak nilai kurs rupiah terhadap dolar as, telah menggoyahkan sendi-sendi dasar ekonomi makro yang telah dibangun selama ini. gejolak harga minyak dunia yang harganya mencapai angka tertinggi selama dasawarsa ini menjadikan krisis bbm diberbagai wilayah di indonesia. semua gejolak besaran makro ekonomi ini tak jarang akan memporakporandakan prediksi angka yang telah ditetapkau dalam awal pelaksanaan apbn tahunan. itu semua menunjukkan betapa rentannya kondisi perekonomian indonesia saat ini (supriyanto, 2005). sebagai konsekuensi dari uraian di atas menunjukkan sulitnya untik membuat angkaangka prediksi atas apbn saat ini. yang penting dilakukan untuk meminimalkan gejolak adalah memperkokoh kondisi makro ekonomi indonesia saat ini dan masa yang akan datang (supriyanto, 2005) kebijakan fiskal indonesia mengentaskan kemiskinan kebijakan anggaran pemerintah menempati posisi sangat penting dalam mengubah wajah kemiskinan dan kesenjangan. tingginya tingkat kemisikinan dan lebarnya kesenjangan merupakan indikator kegagalan suatu negara dalam proses pembangunan. karena pembangunan yang dilaksanakan pada prinsipnya ditujukan untuk meningkatkan kesejahteraan masyarakat dan taraf hidup masyarakat. hal ini sesuai dengan tujuan negara indonesia, sebagaimana diamanatkan dalam pembukaan uud 1945, lanjut edy suandi hamid, sistem ekonomi utang luar negeri dan isu-isu ekonomi politik indonesia, (yogyakarta : uii press, 2004), hlm 207-208. yaitu melindungi segenap bangsa indonesia dan seluruh tumpah darah indonesia, memajukan kesejahteraan umum, mencerdaskan kehidupan bangsa dan ikut melaksanakan ketertiban dunia yang berdasarkan kemerdekaan, perdamaian abadi dan keadilan sosial. kesejahteraan rakyat dapat ditingkatkan kalau kemiskinan dapat dikurangi, sehingga untuk meningkatkan kesejahteraan rakyat dapat dilakukan melalui upaya penanggulangan kemiskinan. upaya penanggulangan kemiskinan yang dilakukan pemerintah secara terpogram dimulai sejak orde baru dengan meluncurkan program pelita ipelita v. repelita vi diluncurkan sebagai program khusus, yaitu program inpres desa tertinggal (idt). inpres ini, yaitu inpres no.5/1993 tentang peningkatan penanggulangan kemiskinan, dimaksudkan untuk meningkatkan penanganan masalah kemisikinan secara berkelanjutan di desa-desa miskin. selain itu, berbagai program secara spesifik dapat diketahui dengan menyibak pos-pos anggaran yang disediakan melalui anggaran pendapatan dan belanja negara. programprogram tersebut antara lain: (dumairy, 1995: 78-81). (1) program bantuan pembangunan daerah; (2) inpres pembangunan desa; (3) inpres pembangunan daerah tingkat dua; (4) inpres pembangunan daerah tingkat satu; (5) inpres kesehatan. sementara itu, pendanaan untuk penanggulangan kemisikinan selalu meningkat dari tahun ke tahun (gambar 1). namun demikian, mekanisme penyaluran dana tersebut masih tersebar di berbagai departemen/lembaga pemerintah non-departemen. implikasinya adalah dalam pelaksanaan seringkali keterkaitan antarprogram penanggulangan kemiskinan di pusat maupun daerah belum optimal. selain itu, berdasarkan porsi anggaran penanggulangan kemiskinan yang disediakan pada apbd secara umum masih belum memadai, yaitu rata-rata berkisar 8-12 persen dari total apbd provinsi (tkpk, 2006). dengan demikian masalah pendanaan menjadi salah satu kendala dalam program penanggulangan kemiskinan di daerah (royat, 2008:43) kebijakan fiskal indonesia (ayief fathurrahman) 77 sumber : tkpk dan bapennas catatan : angka dalam satuan triliyun rupiah gambar 1. perkembangan jumlah anggaran penanggulan kemiskinan di apbn di samping itu, berbagai upaya pemerintah dalam pelaksanaan kebijakan untuk penanggulangan kemiskinan dan pengangguran, saat ini dilakukan dengan berbagai upayaupaya di antaranya : (royat, 2008: 44) (1) menaikkan anggaran untuk programprogram yang berkaitan langsung maupun tidak langsung dengan penanggulangan kemiskinan dan pengangguran, dilaksanakan dengan pemberdayaan berbasis komunitas dan kegiatan padat karya (2) mendorong apbd provinsi, kabupaten dan kota pada tahun-tahun selanjutnya untuk meningkatkan anggaran bagi penanggulangan kemiskinan dan perluasan lapangan kerja; (3) tetap mempertahankan program lama seperti raskin, bos, asuransi miskin, dan sebagainya; (4) akselerasi pertumbuhan ekonomi dan stabilitas harga, khususnya harga beras. adapun langkah konkrit pemerintah dalam mengatasi kemisikinan dan pengangguran, dijabarkan dalam berbagai program yang diharapkan menjadi instrumen utama kegiatan tersebut. berbagai program yang dilaksankan di antaranya: (royat, 2008: 45). (1) program nasional pemberdayaan masyarakat mandiri (pnpm-mandiri) merupakan ekspansi dan integrasi program-program penanggulangan kemiskinan. (2) program pengembangan bahan bakar nabati (ebn). program ini dimaksudkan untuk mendorong kemandirian penyediaan energi terbarukan dengan menumbuhkan “desa mandiri energi”. (3) program keluarga harapan (pkh), berupa bantuan khusus untuk pendidikan dan kesehatan. (4) program pemerintah lain yang bertujuan meningkatkan akses masyarakat miskin kepada sumber permodalan usaha mikro dan kecil, listrik perdesaan, sertifikasi tanah, kredit mikro dan lain-lain. pada tahun 2008 lalu, sebagaimana yang telah digariskan dalam rencana kerja pemerintah 2008 (rkp 2008) melalui perpres nomor 18 tahun 2007, sasaran pembangunan ekonomi diarahkan untuk mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi dalam rangka memperluas lapangan pekerjaan dan mengurangi tingkat kemiskinan. sasaran pertumbuhan ekonomi yang diharapkan adalah pertumbuhan yang berkualitas yaitu pertumbuhan yang dapat mendistribusikan pendapatan dan lapangan pekerjaan. sedangkan percepatan perluasan lapangan pekerjaan diarahkan kepada peningkatan pertumbuhan sektor yang banyak menyerap tenaga kerja. mengenai penanggulangan kemiskinan, fokus sasaran adalah bagaimana meningkatkan pendapatan secara merata dan memberikan akses yang lebih luas bagi rakyat untuk mendapatkan pendidikan, kesehatan, air bersih dan kebutuhan dasar lainnya (dirjen anggaran depkeu, 2008) (lihat gambar 2). pada tahun 2009, dirumuskan 7 fokus dari alokasi anggaran negara mendukung pelaksanaan tema pembangunan 2009 yaitu: peningkatan kesejahteraan rakyat dan pengurangan kemiskinan. mendukung sasaran pembangunan tahun 2009, yaitu: mencapai pertumbuhan ekonomi sebesar 6 persen, menurunkan tingkat kemiskinan menjadi 12 persen–14 persen, menurunkan tingkat pengangguran menjadi 7,0 persen 8,0 persen, mendukung prioritas rkp 2009: peningkatan pelayanan dasar dan pembangunan perdesaan. percepatan pertumbuhan yang berkualitas dengan memperkuat daya tahan ekonomi yang didukung oleh pembangunan pertanian, infrastruktur, dan energi. peningkatan upaya anti korupsi, reformasi birokrasi, serta pemantapan demokrasi, pertahanan dan keamanan dalam negeri (dirjen anggaran, 2009). sedangkan arah kebijakan belanja negara pada tahun 2010-2014 yaitu: mendukung pembiayaan prioritas pembangunan 2010-2014 guna meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi, mengurangi pengangguran, dan mengurangi kemis16 16 18 23 42 61 0 2002 2003 2004 2005  2006 2007 7 k p n k k ik h d k te n a u k tr m la 6 7 78 kinan.6 sela prioritas pem ngah antara kelola; pendi kemiskinan; klim investa hidup dan p daerah terti konflik; keb eknologi.7 selain i ngunan na armida s. a untuk pena kurun waktu riliun. men membuat ke angan kemis untuk lebih yang berkea jaman priorit termuat dala bitkan inpre ngunan yang program-pro penanggulan penanggulan masyarakat, berbasis pem pemerintah t tentang perc merupakan 2009 tentang baca lebih la presiden bid koordinasi t langan kemi 2010 menteri keu envelope jang 2014. musre http://docs. viewer?a=v& enas.go.id/ , ju in itu, men mbangunan lain: reform idikan; keseh ketahanan asi dan usa engelolaan b inggal, terd budayaan; k itu, menteri asional (pp alisjahbana anggulangan u 2010-2014 nurutnya, p ebijakan dan skinan yang h memfokuskan dilan dan untu tas pembanguna am inpres no. 1 s no. 3 tahun g berkeadilan. d ogram pro raky ngan kemiskina ngan kemiskin dan program mberdayaan usah telah menerbitk cepatan penan penyempurnaan g koordinasi p anjut dalam sam dang kesejahtera teknis nasiona iskinan provins angan ri, arah gka menengah d enbangnas rpj google.com/ &q=cache:2_vzw diakses tanggal rnal ekonom ndukung 1 nasional jan masi birokra hatan; penan pangan; in ha; energi; bencana; pem depan, terl kreativitas d i perencana pn)/kepala mengatakan n kemiskin adalah seb pemerintah n program g terdiri dari n pelaksanaan uk kesinambung an nasional seb 1 tahun 2010, m 2010 tentang pr dalam inpres in yat difokuskan n berbasis kelu nan berbasis penanggulanga ha mikro dan k kan perpres no. ggulangan kem n dari perpres penanggulangan mbutan deputi s aan rakyat pad al tim koordin si tahun 2010 j kebijakan fiska dalam penyusun mn 2010-2014, w3i3svej:musren l 15 nopember 2 gambar 2. mi dan studi 11 program ngka meneasi dan tata nggulangan nfrastruktur; lingkungan mbangunan luar, pasca dan inovasi aan pembabappenas, n, anggaran nan dalam besar rp270 juga telah penanggu tiga cluster. pembangunan gan serta penaagaimana yang aka telah diterrogram pembani, pelaksanaan pada program uarga, program pemberdayaan an kemiskinan kecil. untuk itu, 15 tahun 2010 miskinan yang no. 13 tahun n kemiskinan. sekretaris wakil da acara rapat nasi penanggujakarta, 14 juni al, dan recource nan rpjm 2010, dikutip dari nbangnas.bapp 2012 pembanguna pembangun pada clu perlindu rintah penyedia (raskin) jaminan operasio lanjut u bencana sebagai beasiswa sasaran. pemberd program mandiri upaya p desa. pad dayaan u iklim be rakyat ( pemberd ngah (u berusaha (kur). k yang me sektoral (habibu konsep perspek salah sa kan ole dengan rakyat. k melayan ditegask “seorang an ekonomi nan volume 1 uster pertama ungan sosial telah mem aan beras , program n kesehata onal sekola usia dan cac a alam, b kompensasi a untuk a pada clu dayaan masy m nasional (pnpm), p endampinga da cluster ke usaha mikr erusaha dan (kur), pem dayaan usah umkm) te a dan penye kemiskinan embutuhkan sehingga ko ullah, 2010) dasar keb ktif ekonom atu urusan u eh negara a tujuan m kewajiban n ni dan meng kan nabi saw g imam (kha nasional 20 13, nomor 1, a yakni clus l kelompok mberikan ba untuk r keluarga h an masyar ah (bos), cat ganda te bantuan la i kenaikan h anak dari uster kedua yarakat yan pemberdaya pemerintah t an dan pemb etiga yakni ro dan kecil n penyediaa merintah telah ha mikro, k ermasuk p ediaan kred adalah mult n upaya pen oordinasi per bijakan fisk mi islam umat yang w adalah men eningkatkan negara atas ra gurusi urusa w dalam sab alifah) adalah 008 april 2012: 7 ter bantuan sasaran, pe antuan mel rakyat mi harapan (pk rakat, bant bantuan rlantar, bant angsung tu harga bbm, rumah tan yakni clu g berfokus p aan masyar elah melaku berdayaan d cluster pem serta perba n kredit us h meningkat kecil dan m erbaikan ik it usaha rak tisektor prob nanganan li rlu ditingkat kal indonesi wajib dilaks ngatur ekon n kesejahter akyatnya ad an umat. ha bdanya: h pemelihara 72-82 dan emelalui iskin kh), tuan bagi tuan unai dan ngga uster pada akat ukan desamberikan saha tkan meneklim kyat blem intas tkan ia ananomi raan alah al ini dan kebijakan fiskal indonesia (ayief fathurrahman) 79 pengatur urusan (rakyat), dan dia akan diminta pertanggungjawabannya terhadap rakyatnya.” (hr bukhari dan muslim). baqir ashshadr melihat bahwa intervensi negara dalam lapangan kehidupan ekonomi sangat diperlukan untuk menjamin keselarasannya dengan norma-norma islam tersebut (chapra, m. umer, 2001: 63). karena itu pemerintah berperan menyediakan berbagai barang publik untuk mendorong pembangunan dan kesejahteraan bersama melalui kebijakan publik dan fiskalnya. indonesia adalah negara yang sampai detik ini, selalu berupaya mengatasi persoalan rakyatnya. salah satu persoalan yang fundamental yang tengah dihadapi adalah persoalan kemiskinan dan pengangguran. berbagai upaya pembangunan ekonomi 230 juta manusia indonesia dan ekonomi tanah air seluas 8 juta km persegi yang dilakukan pemerintah telah berdampak pada penurunan angka kemiskinan dari 16,7 persen pada tahun 2004 menjadi 14,1 persen pada nopember 2009. angka kemiskinan tahun 2009 tersebut yang sebesar 3,53 juta jiwa ini turun 2,43 juta jiwa dibandingkan angka kemiskinan tahun 2008. begitu juga dengan tingkat pengangguran yang menurun dari 9,9 persen pada tahun 2004 menjadi 8,1 persen pada februari 2009 (dirjen perbendaharaan, 2009: 10). jika kita melihat angka di atas, terlihat bahwa kemiskinan berdasarkan ukuran pengeluaran mengalami penurunan yang cukup signifikan. berdasarkan data ini, pemerintah saat ini terlihat sudah bekerja keras mengentaskan warga miskin. namun demikian, tidak etis rasanya dan terkesan egoistis jika semua penurunan angka kemiskinan dianggap kerja keras pemerintah sendiri, karena hal itu menafikan usaha kelompok miskin sendiri untuk keluar dari jebakan kemiskinan dan peran-serta masyarakat sipil. artinya, program pengentasan kemiskinan perlu dilihat seberapa besar mampu menjawab masalah-masalah yang dihadapi oleh kelompok miskin dan kendala-kendala yang dihadapi program itu. seperti diketahui, kemiskinan sebagai suatu fenomena sosial tidak hanya memiliki dimensi ekonomi tetapi berdimensi banyak termasuk dimensi psikologis, struktural, politis, dan lain sebagainya. kemiskinan adalah suatu fenomena yang amat kompleks. hal tersebut bukan hanya menunjukkan penghasilan rendah, kekurangan pangan, kondisi kesehatan yang buruk, dan lingkungan yang kumuh, tetapi juga ketidakberdayaan dan ketergantungan pada pihak lain. efektivitas dari suatu program penanggulangan kemiskinan yang diluncurkan harus dilihat dari kemampuan program tersebut dalam mengubah kondisi-kondisi tersebut. dari penjelasan terdahulu dapat diketahui bahwa instrumen utama kebijakan penanggulangan kemiskinan pemerintah indonesia masih sedikit berkutat pada bantuan-bantuan yang bersifat charity (amal). katakanlah seperti jaringan pengaman sosial (jps), inpres desa tertinggal (idt), dan bantuan langsung tunai (blt). pertanyaannya adalah seberapa efektifkah program-program ini. namun demikian, dalam rangka membantu rakyat miskin yang terkena dampak krisis ekonomi, agaknya bisa dipertimbangkan. akan tetapi jika kebijakan ini bersifat parmanen, hal ini hanya akan meningkatkan ketidakberdayaan dan ketergantungan rakyat miskin, sehingga pada gilirannya kemandirian akan hilang. mengacu kepada prinsip ekonomi islam, perumusan kebijakan yang menyangkut persoalan kebijakan pengentasan kemiskinan mengandung beberapa ciri. pertama, menumbuhkan peranan setiap individu dalam meningkatkan kualitas hidupnya sesuai dengan martabat manusia yang dimuliakan oleh tuhan. kedua, menumbuhkan proses kebersamaan yang memberi peluang bagi berkembangnya kreativitas, inovasi dan kerja keras untuk mencapai kesejahteraan umum. ketiga, menciptakan distribusi pendapatan dan kekayaan masyarakat secara adil dan merata. keempat, menjaga stabilitas dan keberlangsungan perkembangan ekonomi dalam proses kemajuan (rais, 2002). berdasarkan prinsip di atas, islam menganjurkan setiap individu untuk proaktif dalam rangka mencapai taraf hidup yang lebih baik. sehingga dengan demikian, kiranya pemerintah indonesia untuk berpijak pada dasar kebijakan yang melibatkan masyarakat baik secara langsung maupun tidak langsung. upaya jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 13, nomor 1, april 2012: 72-82 80 penanggulangan kemiskinan yang paling strategis dapat dirumuskan dalam satu kalimat yaitu “berikan peluang kepada keluarga miskin dan komunitasnya untuk mengatasi masalah mereka secara mandiri”(sulekale, 2003) ini berarti pemerintah harus mereposisi peran mereka, dari agen pemberdayaan menjadi fasilitator pemberdayaan. dalam lembaran sejarah islam, umar bin khattab pernah dikritik oleh salah seorang sahabat yang bernama hakim bin hizam, mengenai pendistribusian kas baitul mal sebagai tunjangan sosial kepada kerabat rasulullah dan orang-orang yang berjasa dalam membela islam.8 menurutnya, hal demikian akan mendongkrak mereka dengan sifat malas, dan akan menjadi fatal ketika pemerintah sudah tidak lagi menerapkan kebijakan tersebut (karim, 2004: 64). khalifah menyadari bahwa kebijakan tersebut mengandung kekeliruan dan berimbas negatif terhadap strata sosial masyarakat dan berniat untuk memperbaikinya. namun umar wafat sebelum terealisasikan rencananya (afzalurrahman, 1995: 165). di samping itu, program penanggulangan kemiskinan tidak cukup kiranya jika hanya dilakukan dengan pendekatan yang developmentalistik saja. akan tetapi penanggulangan kemiskinan perlu disertai dengan pendekatan yang mengandalkan “modal sosial” yang ada di masyarakat itu sendiri, berupa kebersamaan, gotong-royong, saling bantu dan saling percaya. fakta di atas sudah membuktikan bahwa betapa pemerintah tak akan mampu berbuat banyak dalam proses penurunan angka kemiskinan tanpa menggandengkan tangannya dengan tangan-tangan usaha kelompok miskin untuk keluar dari jebakan kemiskinan serta merangkul peran-serta masyarakat sipil. pada masa rasulullah, ukhuwwah islamiyah, persaudaraan sesama muslim, antara golongan muhajirin dan golongan anshor sangat ditekankan. rasulullah sangat menyadari bahwa asas kebersamaan, kekeluargaan dan persaudaraan merupakan program yang dapat mendongkrak pertumbuhan ekonomi 8 para sejarawan meyakini bahwa tindakan umar demikian adalah tidak lain dan tidak bukan sebagai pemberian tanda jasa kepada relawan yang telah gigih berjuang membela dan meneggakan agama islam di awal kehadirannya. masyarakat dan mengentaskan kemiskinan yang melanda kaum muslimin (fathurrahman, 2010: 7-8). pandangan ini sudah barang tentu berangkat dari nilai-nilai qur’ani yang menghormati sesama manusia dan menekankan masalah ukhuwah/ persaudaraan (qs. alhujarat: 10), ta’awun/tolong menolong/ kebersamaan (qs. al-maidah: 3). di sinilah pentingnya zakat, infaq, shadaqah yang telah digariskan dalam ajaran islam. pemerintah dalam hal ini menjadi pendorong masyarakat membayar kepada badan amil zakat, infaq dan shadaqah (bazis), yang telah didirikan di seluruh propinsi, kabupaten dan kecamatan. kemudian mendistribusikanya kepada yang miskin, agar bisa keluar dari beban kesusahan dan kemiskinan. dengan demikian, zis berusaha meningkatkan taraf hidup fakir miskin ke tingkatan hidup yang layak. zis juga merupakan sarana untuk mendekatkan jurang pemisah antara orang kaya dengan fakir miskin (qardhawi, 1996: 174). sebagaimana diketahui, salah satu langkah kongkrit pemerintah dalam mengatasi kemiskinan yaitu berupa program nasional pemberdayaan masyarakat mandiri (pnpmmandiri). dalam tinjauan ekonomi islam, menumbuhkan peranan setiap individu dalam meningkatkan kualitas hidupnya termasuk mengatasi persoalan kemiskinan yang melanda diriya merupakan jalan utama yang dianjurkan, baik itu dengan berusaha maupun bekerja dan lain sebagainya. masyarakat didorong pada arah yang lebih progresif, aktif, dan produktif, sehingga mentalitas yang terbentuk mencerminkan kecenderungan yang positif. ini berarti pemerintah harus mereposisi peran mereka, dari agen pemberdayaan menjadi fasilitator pemberdayaan. input yang berasal dari luar yang masuk dalam proses pemberdayaan harus mengacu sepenuhnya pada kebutuhan dan desain aksi yang dibuat oleh keluarga miskin itu sendiri bersama komunitasnya melalui proses dialog yang produktif agar sesuai dengan konteks setempat. hal ini mengandung arti bahwa tidak selamanya ketergantungan pada pemerintah akan membawa lari dari jeratan kemiskinan, akan tetapi kemandirianlah merupakan tongkebijakan fiskal indonesia (ayief fathurrahman) 81 gak awal untuk keluar dari lingkarannya. sehingga, ketika program kebijakan dari pemerintah tersebut berakhir, pola pikir masyarakat dalam memandang persoalan kemiskinan adalah persoalan “individual”, sehingga kemandirian merupakan jalan pilihan yang tepat. walaupun demikian, masalah fundamental yang bernama kemiskinan tetap menjadi tanggungjawab negara. menurut islam, dalam pemberantasan kemiskinan dan kepincangan pendapatan masyarakat, negara harus melakukan intervensi dalam masalah ini. dalam alqur’an diajarkan prinsif al-ma’un atau tanggungjawab sosial dapat diwujudkan ke dalam lembaga-lembaga negara, sebab kalau tidak maka seluruh masyarakat dapat terkena predikat “mendustakan agama”. negara sebenarnya hanya bertugas menjamin terlaksananya ajaran ini, apakah dengan tindakan yang lebih langsung atau mendorong swasta dan masyarakat sendiri untuk melaksanakan doktrin itu. para pemikir islam pada umumnya cenderung untuk menempatkan peranan negara yang aktif, baik dalam mengendalikan perekonomian ke arah perkembangan yang lebih stabil, terutama untuk mencegah pengangguran, mengarahkan alokasi sumberdaya sehingga dapat dicapai keseimbangan antara efisiensi dan partisipasi masyarakat yang luas dalam kegiatan usaha serta melakukan redistribusi pendapatan dan kekayaan masyarakat sehingga tidak timbul kepincangan dan ketidakadilan sosial. sehingga dengan demikian, kebijakan pemerintah menjadi hal yang sangat perlu dalam hal ini (waidl, 2008). ini sesuai dengan amanat uud 1945 mengatakan bahwa, "fakir miskin dan anak terlantar dipelihara oleh negara" (pasal 34 ayat 1). simpulan sebagaimana dijelaskan sebelumnya, beragam program yang diluncurkan pemerintah indonesia untuk menanggulangi kemiskinan. memang terdapat indikasi kuat bahwasanya meskipun terdapat kecenderungan positif dalam penanggulangan kemiskinan, tetapi ternyata implikasinya belum seperti yang diharapkan. proporsi penduduk yang hampir miskin masih cukup tinggi, dan apabila terjadi sedikit 'gejolak', maka dengan sangat mudah mereka akan kembali menjadi miskin. kemiskinan merupakan suatu fenomena yang amat kompleks. sehingga dengan demikian, kemiskinan tidak saja menyangkut problem kultural, tetapi juga problem struktural yang menyangkut bagaimana negara membuat kebijakan fiskal yang berorientasi pada penanggulangan kemiskinan secara kultural, islam menganjurkan untuk menumbuhkan peranan setiap individu dalam meningkatkan kualitas hidupnya dan menumbuhkan proses kebersamaan sosial melalui zakat, infaq, dan shadaqah. secara struktural, islam meletakkan peran sentral negara dalam menciptakan distribusi pendapatan dan kekayaan masyarakat secara adil dan merata dan menjaga stabilitas dan keberlangsungan perkembangan ekonomi dalam proses kemajuan dan pemerataan serta sebagai fasilitator pemberdayaan masyarakat dalam mencari solusi ke taraf hidup yang lebih layak. daftar pustaka afzalurrahman. 1995. doktrin ekonomi islam. jilid 1. yogyakarta: pt dhana bakti wakaf. amalia, euis. 2005. sejarah pemikiran ekonomi islam: dari masa klasik hingga kontemporer. jakarta: pustaka asatruss. buana, hadi. 2012. bbm, keadilan sosial, pajak (subsidi), dan harga, dikutip dari http:// www.mediaindonesia.com/read/2011/02 /18/204025/68/11/bbm-keadilan-sosialpajak-subsidi-dan-harga, diakses tanggal 26 nopember. chapra, m. umer. 2001. masa depan ilmu ekonomi: sebuah tinjauan islam. jakarta: gema insani press. departemen keuangan republik indonesia direktorat jenderal anggaran. 2012. “kerangka ekonomi makro dan pokokpokok kebijakan fiskal 2008”, dikutip dari http://www.anggaran.depkeu.go.id /web-print-list.asp?contentid=177, di akses tanggal 10 nopember. departemen keuangan republik indonesia jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 13, nomor 1, april 2012: 72-82 82 direktorat jenderal anggaran. 2012. kerangka ekonomi makro dan pokok-pokok kebijakan fiskal 2008, dikutip dari http: //www.anggaran.depkeu.go.id/webprint-list.asp?contentid=177, di akses tanggal 15 nopember. direktorat jenderal angggaran. 2012. “kebijakan fiskal dalam rangka mendorong sektor riil”, 2009. dikutip dari http:// www.wiziq.com/tutorial/39767-kebijakan-fiskal, di akses tanggal 15 nopember. dumairy. 1995. evaluasi kebijakan pemerintah menanggulangi masalah kemiskinan dan kesenjangan”, dalam kemiskinan dan kesenjangan di indonesia. yogyakarta: aditya media. fathurrahman, ayief. 2010. 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20102014. musrenbangnas rpjmn 2010-2014, dikuitp dari http://docs.google.com/ viewer?a=v&q=cache:2_ vzw3i3svej:musrenbangnas.bappenas.go .id/ , diakses tanggal 15 nopember mishkin, frederic. s. 2008. ekonomi uang, perbankan dan pasar keuangan. jakarta: salemba empat. parcoyo, tri kunawangih dan antyo parcoyo. 2004. aspek dasar ekonomi makro di indonesia. jakarta: cikal sakti. qardhawi, muhammad yusuf. 1996. konsepsi islam dalam mengentaskan kemiskinan, surabaya: pt bina ilmu. rais, sasli. 2002. kebijakan publik dalam tinjauan ekonomi islam. makalah mata kuliah sejarah pemikiran ekonomi islam, magister universitas indonesia, kekhususan ekonomi dan keuangan syariah, pskti, ui. royat, sujana royat, 2008. kebijakan pemerintah dalam penanggulangan kemiskinan, http:// digilib.litbang.deptan. go.id /index.php soesastro, hadi dkk (penyunting). 2005. pemikiran dan permasalahan ekonomi di indonesia dalam setengah abad terakhir. yogyakarta: kanisius. sulekale, dd. 2003. pemberdayaan masyarakat 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pembangunan volume 22 nomor 2, oktober 2021 article type: research paper economic development and environmental degradation in indonesia: panel data analysis m irsyad ilham abstract: this study analyzed the relationship of economic development, population density, and the number of vehicles on environmental degradation from 31 provinces in indonesia for the period 2011-2019. panel data analysis, which is widely used to examine issues that could not be studied in either crosssection or time-series alone, is used herein. the empirical results support the hypothesis on the direction of causality from those three factors of environmental damage in the country. the results concluded that economic development, population density, and the number of vehicles impacted on environmental degradation in indonesia. the smallest cross-section random effect indicates the lowest environmental quality when all factors are fixed. the empirical findings provide important policy implications for indonesia and it will direct its economic development model towards a green economic one. on the other hand, the growth of the population should be equalized with growth in human development. the distribution of population should be equalized among provinces by opening a new economic cluster to supply new work-fields. in addition, it should be for the country to create a more-educated population in order to protect environmental quality. despite the unstoppable growth of vehicles, the government should implement the development of eco-friendly combustion technology besides reducing fuel consumption. moreover, the roadmaking by plastic-based material can be considered to prevent land damage from plastic waste and might also recycle plastics which has caused pollution in indonesia. keywords: environmental quality index; economic development; population density; number of vehicles; panel data regression jel classification: q53; q56; c23 introduction in recent years, one of the most important issues for developing countries is environmental degradation (kojima, 2007; todaro & smith, 2003; warren & mccarthy, 2008). the issue of environmental degradation is still an important research agenda because of its global significance (rahman, 2017). according to indonesia's ministry of environment and forest, during 2011-2014, the average environmental quality index posed a low-level and has decreased by 3.56% in four years. affiliation: statistics indonesia, jakarta capital special region, indonesia *correspondence: irsyad.ilham@bps.go.id this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v22i2.7629 citation: ilham, m.i. (2021). economic development and environmental degradation in indonesia: panel data analysis. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 22(2), 185200. article history received: 30 nov 2019 revised: 31 jul 2020 28 sep 2020 17 mar 2021 30 jul 2021 06 aug 2021 accepted: 10 sep 2021 https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?user=zllwqryaaaaj&hl=en https://www.bps.go.id/ https://www.bps.go.id/ mailto:irsyad.ilham@bps.go.id http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/7629 https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v22i1.7836&domain=pdf https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v22i2.7629&domain=pdf ilham economic development and environmental degradation in indonesia: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 186 the data shows the trend of deterioration in water and forest land coverage. the figures captured environmental degradation will bring about several adverse impacts such as endangering ecosystem balance and human health. hence, this study analyzes the environmental degradation in indonesia from the viewpoint of the environmental quality index (eqi) by provinces. due to many factors that have a relationship to environmental quality, this study considered economic development, population density, and the number of motor vehicles as independent variables. economic development is also known as a factor that declines environmental quality. the economic development activities often exclude the residues that can pollute the environment. on the other hand, indonesia's development is also still dependent on natural resources. according to statistics indonesia, in 2018 the industrial sector contributed 19.86 percent to the national economy. the agricultural sector contributed 12.81 percent, and 8.08 percent mining. the three sectors used natural resources as raw materials for their production. degradation of these natural resources occured due to resource depletion and pollution. furthermore, this study uses the variable of gross domestic regional product (grdp) per capita as economic development by the province to analyze its relationship on environmental quality in indonesia. the linkages between population and environmental degradation have received increasing attention. the population growth will affect the high pressure on environmental carrying capacity. todaro and smith (2003) showed theoretically how population density will relate to environmental degradation. if population density, together with world income levels increase, the net environment will continue to deteriorate in degradation problems. todaro and smith (2003) argued that rapid population growth and expanding economic activity in the developing world are likely to do extensive environmental damage unless steps are taken to mitigate their negative consequences. this study also analyzed the relationship of population density with environmental quality. the high population density is considered to have a high demand for natural resources such as water and fossil fuels and adding pressure on environmental capacity. in the process of development, the increase of population has brought an increasing amount of indonesian vehicles. the number of vehicles reached an enormous growth in the last few years. statistics indonesia showed the total number of vehicles (such as cars, buses, and trucks) in indonesia increased from over 12 million in 1995 to over 114 million in 2014. the motorcycles (which comprise 81 percent of the total vehicle fleet) alone accounted for more than 700,000 of this increase (from 2011 to 2014). the world bank accounted for transportation which consumed 12 million kiloliters of gas oil, 12 million kiloliters of premium, 118 thousand kiloliters of diesel oil, 185 thousand kiloliters of fuel oil, and 749 thousand kiloliters of other types of fuel. while it is becoming increasingly evident that environmental problems such as the growth of total carbon dioxide emission, forest destruction, and water contamination, many governments have engaged in addressing environmental concerns for their development strategies. therefore, analyzing the causal relationship between environmental ilham economic development and environmental degradation in indonesia: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 187 degradation and several socio-economic determinants has been a popular topic in recent environmental literature (adams, 2008). therefore, this study is expected to be a reference and evaluation of environmental issues in indonesia. this research used panel data to get more information about environmental problems and discuss the factors that influenced environmental degradation. if these factors are proven to be significantly causing environmental degradation, it is necessary to change the pattern of development towards more attention to environmental sustainability. overall, this study aims to: (1) describe environmental degradation, economic development, population density, and/or the number of the motor vehicle in indonesia during 2011-2019, and (2) examine the impact of economic development, population density, and the number of vehicles on environmental degradation in indonesia during 2011-2019. the current paper differs from the previous study, such as akbostancı et al. (2009), arouri et al. (2012), hung and shaw (2006), and ilham (2018). the novelties of this paper are: first, this study employs the environmental quality index which calculates the index as the summation indices of water, air, and forest land coverage. the previous works of literature only used one specific pollutant as a dependent variable for example carbon dioxide emissions and do not include the aggregate value from the other aspect. second, this study analysed the impact of three independent variables (gross domestic regional product, population density and number of vehicles) on environmental quality by provincially using a panel data regression model. finally, this study utilizes the latest data available for 31 provinces and nine years observation period for the estimation process, from 2011 until 2019. the paper is organized as follows. section ii presented the research method, section iii showed results and discussions, and section iv provided the conclusion. research method the total number of observations in the study is 279 which consisted of annual data of 31 provinces in indonesia from 2011 to 2019. the variables in this study include indonesia's environmental quality index (ieqi), gross domestic regional product per capita (gdrpc), population density (den), and the number of vehicles (nv). the data used in this research were secondary. the ieqi was obtained from the ministry of environmental and forest of the republic of indonesia, meanwhile, the grdpc, den, and nv are from bps-statistics indonesia. this study also considered adding more control variables particularly those that correlated with environmental quality such as agricultural, industrial activity, mining sector, and the economic growth from the construction sector. the environmental quality index is measured by the aggregation of three aspects of environmental quality. economic development, measured as the gross domestic regional product per capita, uses constant price 2010 in million rupiahs. population density, calculated by rationing between the number of populations and the size of the area, expressed by people per kilometre square. the number of motor vehicles signed as a unit. the source of data is from statistics indonesia and the ministry of environment and forest. the ieqi data indicate that west papua and the special capital region of jakarta ilham economic development and environmental degradation in indonesia: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 188 had the highest and lowest average of the environmental quality value of 63,5 and 32,8, respectively. the jarque-bera (j-b) normality test results indicate that ieqi data for 31 provinces are approximately normal. meanwhile, the data from statistics indonesia shows that the highest and lowest mean of the per capita gdrp is jakarta (idr 128,5 million) and east nusa tenggara (idr 10,2 million). the province with the highest population density is jakarta (14932 people/km2) and the lowest is in west papua (8 people/km2). thus, the table also shows the highest number of motor vehicle users are from jakarta province, respectively. the jarque-bera (j-b) normality test for those three variables also indicates that economic development, population density, and the number of motor vehicles have an approximately normal distribution. to obtain the model used in the study, statistical tests and the availability of the data were considered. according to gujarati and porter (2008), four considerations can be used to select the model between a fixed effect or random effect model, namely: 1. if the amount of time series (t) data is large and the number of cross-section (n) data is small, the difference between the fixed effect and the random effect model is very small, so the choice is based on the ease of calculation, i.e. the fixed effect model; 2. when the amount of time series (t) data is small and the number of large cross-section (n) data, the estimates obtained by the two methods can differ significantly. in the random effect model, 𝛼𝛼𝑖𝑖 = 𝛼𝛼 + 𝜇𝜇𝑖𝑖where 𝜇𝜇𝑖𝑖 is the component of individual error and 𝛼𝛼𝑖𝑖 in the fixed effect, the model is not random. if the individual or unit of the crosssection of the sample used is not random, then the fixed effect model is more appropriate to use. whereas, if the cross-section unit is random, the random effect model is more appropriate to use; 3. if the individual error components 𝜇𝜇𝑖𝑖 and one or more regressors are correlated, the estimator derived from the random effect model is biased, whereas the fixed effect model is unbiased so that the fixed effect model is better to be used; and 4. if the number of large cross-section (n) data and the number of small-time series (t) data and the assumption of the random effect model are met, the random effect model estimator is more efficient than the fixed-effect model estimator. the model is as follows, 𝑙𝑙𝑛𝑛(𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸𝐸)𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 = 𝛼𝛼𝑖𝑖 + 𝛽𝛽1𝑙𝑙𝑛𝑛(𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺𝐺)𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 + 𝛽𝛽2𝑙𝑙𝑛𝑛(𝐺𝐺𝐸𝐸𝐷𝐷)𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 + 𝛽𝛽3𝑙𝑙𝑛𝑛(𝐷𝐷𝑁𝑁)𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 + 𝜀𝜀𝑖𝑖𝑖𝑖 the eqi is the environmental quality index, grdpc is gross domestic regional product per capita, den is population density and nv is number of vehicles. the equation is made in the natural logarithm form. both the left and right side from the equation are made in natural logarithm for several reasons. first, the coefficient can be understood as elasticities. second, the natural logarithm scale is directly interpretable as an approximate proportional difference or as a percentage point. for instance, if a coefficient 𝛽𝛽1 is 0.6, which means that if the value of gross domestic regional product per capita increases by 1 percent, the environmental quality index will increase by 0.6 percent. ilham economic development and environmental degradation in indonesia: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 189 building the panel data regression model from econometric criteria, it is needed to test and deal with several problems according to the model assumption. if the selected model is a fixed-effect model or common effect model, the assumption which should be fulfilled is normality, homoscedasticity, non-autocorrelation, and non-multi-collinearity. in special cases, if the selected model is a random effect, the harnessing of generalized least square (gls) or feasible gls to estimate parameters has accommodated the homoscedasticity and non-autocorrelation assumption. hence, the random effect model uses the assumption of normality and multicollinearity (heshmati et al., 2015; singer & willett, 2003). result and discussion sustainable development aims to guarantee environmental integrity that comprises the continuity and ecological balance in order not to ruin the cause of economic development. hence, environmental degradation is an urgent problem faced by the rest of the world, including indonesia. the environmental quality of indonesia is one important issue while high pressure has potential adverse effects to the environment as a result of economic growth and population. therefore, the ministry of environment and forest (2015) had developed a provincial-based index value to explain the environmental condition. figure 1 depicted environmental degradation in indonesia based on the environmental quality index. those quality's indicators, whether water, air, and even forest coverage index were used to calculate the environmental quality index (eqi). this index can describe the condition of the national environment in aggregate form. the fluctuation of the water quality index during four years may become a warning to be overcome. during 2011-2014, the environmental quality index decreased by 3.56%. the index has increased by 2.67% during 2015-2019. overall environmental quality has an average of 64.67 and is still consistent in moderately good. the water quality index has an average of 53.19 which is in the bad category. thus, air quality shows a decreasing trend although the average value can be stated that the air condition is still in good condition. forest coverage also should be considered to take action, especially by local governments. besides, the average value of the forest coverage index is still picturing low forest management, some illegal logging cases triggered as a factor that causes indonesia's loss of forest. according to the ministry of environment and forest (2015), the water's quality and forest coverage have decreased significantly because of industrial activities, household pollution, and a new settlement in the riverbank. ilham economic development and environmental degradation in indonesia: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 190 figure 1 water quality index (wqi), air quality index (aqi), and forest coverage index (fci) source: ministry of environment and forest, 2015 the environmental quality's lowering has been indicated from regional cases. the data shows that west papua still has the highest environmental quality for four years. on the other hand, jakarta is still the lowest environmental quality in indonesia. this special capital region has been the highest environmental problem since 2011. the environmental problem in jakarta can be known from the three facets, such as water quality, air, and land quality. tables 1 and 2 showed that from three facets of environmental quality. jakarta was the lowest quality compared to other provinces. table 1 environmental quality index 2011-2014 province 2011 2012 2013 2014 average water quality index jakarta 35.65 (33) 41.05 (33) 34.71 (33) 34 (33) 36.35 (33) air quality index jakarta 47.21 (33) 44.31 (33) 41.51 (33) 46.28 (33) 44.83 (33) forest coverage index jakarta 32.06 (32) 32.06 (32) 31.99 (32) 31.99 (32) 32.03 (32) the number in parentheses shows ranks of jakarta from the other provinces in indonesia source: ministry of environment and forest, 2015 furthermore, several provinces have experienced declining environmental status in the danger category such as jakarta, west java, and banten. supposed that we disaggregated the provinces by three environmental index facets, it can be known that there is a lower status condition that happened by provinces in 2014. in the water quality facet, the provinces of jakarta, west java, central java, banten, yogyakarta, south kalimantan, and maluku are classified in the danger category in water quality. in the air quality facet, it is just jakarta that is classified in the danger category. in the forest quality facet, the average value during 2001-2014 exhibits that the provinces of north sumatera, jambi, south sumatera, lampung, bangka belitung, jakarta, west java, yogyakarta, banten, bali, and south kalimantan are classified in the danger category about losing of its forest coverage (ministry of environment and forest, 2015). hence, repairing the environment becomes ilham economic development and environmental degradation in indonesia: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 191 needed to achieve the national target of environmental quality. one of the ways is to identify determinants that may cause degradation itself, since socio-economic aspects may be conducted to lead the sustainable development problem. table 2 environmental quality index 2015-2019 aspect year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 water quality index (wqi) 53.10 50.20 53.20 51.01 52.62 air quality index (aqi) 84.96 81.78 87.03 84.74 86.56 land forest coverage index (fci) 58.55 58.42 60.31 61.03 62.00 environmental quality index 64.84 62.96 66.19 65.14 66.55 source: ministry of environment and forest, 2020 the link between development and the environment is subject to an important trade-off. while developing countries aim at achieving a higher standard of living; on the other hand, this development process is based on agricultural and industrial expansion, which is usually resource-consuming and environmentally damaging. indonesia's economic growth is attributable largely to its rapidly impressive economic activity in the industrial sector. the value of agriculture's economic share of gdp between 2011 and 2014 rose from 13.51% to 18%. industrial sector contribution remained greater than agriculture, with growth at a higher rate, rising from 21.76% to 28.44% between 2011 and 2014, and represented as the new national economic backbone. a large portion of industrial economic output was, however, to process the agricultural product. roughly 68% of all industrial activity consisted of food crops and plantations in 2014. taken together, the total value of the agriculture and industrial sector represented over 34% of the nation's gdp in 2014, up from 32% in 2011. table 3 recorded the share of regional areas for gdp value. it showed that java still dominated indonesia's economy by contributing 57,39 % of national gdp, respectively, in 2014. sumatra comes next, with 23,16%. the highest regional gdp (grdp) is achieved mostly by provinces with natural resources (oil, gas, and forestry) and business centres like jakarta, east kalimantan, riau island, and west papua. while provinces which have less natural resources and business activities are left behind in terms of economic development like gorontalo, east nusa tenggara, maluku, and west nusa tenggara. the highest regional grp was achieved by jakarta for 2011 and 2014 at idr 1,147 trillion and idr 1,374 trillion. meanwhile, north maluku is the lowest regional grp by idr 16 trillion in 2011 and idr 19.2 trillion in 2014. in retrospect, agriculture has been still important to the nation's economy. while java has been increasing in the importance of the industrial sector, agriculture remains responsible for over 20% of overall economic activity by the regions (table 3). this could remind us that agriculture and industry still contributed as the regional economic backbone, and also there were consequences for the environmental concern. ilham economic development and environmental degradation in indonesia: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 192 table 3 distribution of regional gdp at current price by regions and economic sectors (%) region year economic sectors agriculture industry mining others sumatera 2011 22.65 19.64 19.06 38.65 2014 21.56 19.1 18.59 40.75 java 2011 8.61 29.64 2.84 58.91 2014 8.28 29.06 2.31 60.35 bali-nusa tenggara 2011 21.69 29.64 2.84 45.83 2014 20.37 4.77 4.02 70.84 kalimantan 2011 11.05 17.45 42.45 29.05 2014 12.39 17.09 38.85 31.67 sulawesi 2011 26.78 10.54 8.64 54.04 2014 26.37 10.54 8.61 54.48 maluku-papua 2011 14.28 9.71 34.11 41.9 2014 15.27 9.49 24.95 50.29 source: statistics indonesia (2016) population pressure can be one cause of environmental degradation. the overpopulation will affect human limits of capably producing food and altering the balance of supply and demand. as a result, increasing human demands are damaging natural resources. discussions of the indonesian population usually highlight the density contrast between java and the rest of indonesia. while java is densely populated, the rest of indonesia is sparsely populated. table 4 shows that the population density increased over time, with the highest density recorded in java. in 2011, for example, the population density in java's provinces ranged from 720 persons per square kilometre (in east java) to 12,685 persons per square kilometre (in jakarta). in islands other than java, the uneven distribution of populations also persists. the provinces of lampung and north sumatra are the most densely populated regions over time. for both provinces, the population density was more than 100 per square kilometre in 2011 and increased to 162 and 188 in 2014. it is almost considered a fact that the population in the country will increase in the future. the projections of indonesia in 2030 is 8.1 billion, nearly 35% over the present. the fruits of development have created a higher level of income and growing middle and upper classes. as the fruits of economic growth, a higher level of income has meant a higher level of resource consumption and pollution. a vivid example is an increase in the number of motor vehicles in indonesia, which has resulted in carbon dioxide at rates up to 179,731 kiloton in 1991 to 599,540 kiloton in 2012. ownership rates in indonesia increased from 85.6 million motors in 2011 to 114.2 million motors in 2014. the total ownership of vehicles in indonesia is growing at about 10.08% per year. table 5 shows the growth of cars, buses, and motorcycles separately since 2011 and shows the total ownership of vehicles in 2014 is growing 33.42% than in 2011. the rate of growth of the vehicle in the regions is predicted to increase over time and in 2019, the total number of the vehicle reached over 154 million units. ilham economic development and environmental degradation in indonesia: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 193 table 4 indonesia's provincial population density thousand people per square kilometre, 2011-2014 province area (km2) population density (thousand people/km2) 2011 2012 2013 2014 aceh 57,956 80 81 83 85 north sumatera 72,981.23 181 184 186 189 west sumatera 42,012.89 117 119 121 122 riau 87,023.66 66 68 69 71 jambi 50,058.16 63 64 66 67 south sumatera 91,592.43 83 84 85 87 bengkulu 19,919.33 88 90 91 93 lampung 34,623.8 223 226 229 232 bangka belitung 16,424.06 77 78 80 82 riau islands 8,201.72 213 220 227 234 jakarta 664.01 14687 14852 15015 15173 west java 35,377.76 1242 1262 1282 1301 central java 32,800.69 998 1006 1014 1022 yogyakarta 3,133.15 1120 1134 1147 1161 east java 47,799.75 792 797 803 808 banten 9,662.92 1133 1159 1185 1211 bali 5,780.06 685 693 702 710 west nusa tenggara 18,572.32 247 250 254 257 east nusa tenggara 48,718.1 98 100 102 103 west kalimantan 147,307 30 31 32 32 central kalimantan 153,564.5 15 15 16 16 south kalimantan 38,744.23 96 98 99 101 east kalimantan 129,066.64 18 18 30 26 north sulawesi 13,851.64 166 168 170 172 central sulawesi 61,841.29 44 44 45 46 south sulawesi 46,717.48 175 177 179 180 south-east sulawesi 38,067.7 60 62 63 64 gorontalo 11,257.07 94 96 98 99 west sulawesi 16,787.18 71 72 74 75 maluku 46,914.03 33 34 35 35 north maluku 31,982.5 33 34 35 36 west papua 97,024.27 8 8 9 9 papua 319,036.05 9 9 10 10 source: statistics indonesia (2016) table 5 the number of vehicles by types in indonesia 2011-2014, 2018-2019 types 2011 2012 2013 2014 2018 2019 cars 9,548,866 10,432,259 11,484,514 12,599,038 16,440,987 17,238,361 buses 2,254.406 2,273,821 2,286,309 2,398,846 2,538,182 2,541,957 freight cars 4,958,738 5,286,061 5,615,494 6,235,136 7,778,544 8,007,542 motorcycles 68,839,341 76,381,183 84,732,652 92,976,240 120,101,047 126,588,509 total vehicles 85,601,351 94,373,324 104,118,969 114,209,260 146,858,760 154,376,369 source: statistics indonesia (2016) ilham economic development and environmental degradation in indonesia: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 194 panel data regression analysis was used to predict the impact of economic development, population density, and the number of vehicles on environmental degradation. there are three kinds of panel data such as common effect, fixed effect, and random effect model. such models have their assumptions. the distinction of assumption is based on its intercept value. the common effect model (cem) has an assumption which states that intercepts on the estimation model are the same across all individual terms. in other words, during 20112019 environmental quality index of provinces is the same, ceteris paribus. the second model is the fixed effect model (fem) that assumes the environmental quality index will differ across provinces which can be identified by its intercept value. the last is the random effect model (rem). similar to fem, the random effect model assumes intercept value across provinces is different. however, the intercept in rem shows the deviation between the average value of the intercept and the error' component. in addition, the intercept in rem is assumed as random. the panel data regression model is used to analyze the effect of economic development, population density, and the number of vehicles on environmental quality is a fixed-effect model as seen in table 6 and table 7. the result showed that all independent variables affect the environmental quality index of provinces in indonesia. the partial test of independent variables shows that the prob (t-stat) is smaller than 0.05 which concluded that by 5% significance level, grdp per capita, population density, and the number of vehicles significantly affected the environmental quality index (eqi). this study used a fixed effect panel data regression model. the model considered as a fixed effect would produce a more efficient estimate of parameters. if the estimation using common effect would be problematic owing to serial correlation in panel data. moreover, the common effect model would ignore province-level unobserved heterogeneity which would produce a biased parameter of interest. meanwhile, the random effect model assumes that the province-specific unobserved is not correlated with the main explanatory variable of interest. the random effect model assumed that the sample is randomly selected from the population. it would be difficult to defend the assumption of correlation between the unobserved heterogeneity and the explanatory variable of interest. given this consideration, this study uses the fixed effect model. this paper will estimate the parameters proposed previously by using panel data. as it is known, panel data is the combination between the time series data from 2011-2019 and cross-section data between 31 regions or provinces in indonesia. by using this combined data, researchers will have rich data as information and the variations which can explain the real condition. in addition, it will obtain better results of regression rather than if we used the time series data or cross-section data only. the estimation results in table 6 column 11 showed that gross domestic regional product, population density, and the number of motor vehicles have a negative and significant effect on declining environmental quality. from the variables estimated, it was found that ilham economic development and environmental degradation in indonesia: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 195 the industrial gross domestic regional product was dominant in influencing indonesia’s environmental quality index. the gross domestic product of industrial has a negative and significant impact on environmental quality in indonesia, an increase of 1% on the industrial gross domestic regional product will lead to a decline in environmental quality for 0.201% cateris paribus. thus, an increase in per capita gross domestic regional product, population density and the number of motor vehicles for 1% respectively would decline the environmental quality by about 0.047%, 0.081% and 0.001% cateris paribus. this result is in line with hung and shaw (2006) by using the kuznet hypothesis through environmental kuznets curve (ekc) and several degradation proxies such as co, so2, etc, the gdp per capita affected environmental degradation in a country. the result is also in line with pandit and paudel (2016) which concluded income per capita had a positive significant effect on environmental degradation. from their research, environmental degradation was monitored from the amount of phosphorus, bod contaminants, and even the mercury in the waters. the grdp per capita showed the level of the community welfare that has occurred in various regions. the grdp per capita represents a person's income level in an area. the higher one's income, the higher one's ability to gain access to goods and services. the high effort to reach access for the goods or services showed the high demand (demand) for goods or services. in the end, producers are encouraged to produce goods or services to fulfil the supply of goods or services. the interaction between demand and supply of the goods or services, aggregative, will spur economic development. the increase in the quality of human life is accompanied by an increase in the level of resource consumption and pollution. from the estimation result, to improve the quality of the environment and to reduce the case of environmental degradation, economic development activities in indonesia must be reduced. however, economic development activities carried out in a country are precisely the main activities carried out in all developing economies to improve the welfare of its people. the impact of economic activity becomes the "cake of development" that should be divided among each community. however, economic development activities, which use a lot of natural resources or environmental inputs should be carried out together with environmental quality. the population density was the factor that influenced environmental degradation. a large population with relatively high population growth will cause an increase in the need for natural resources as inputs for goods and services. the high demand for natural resources can lead to excessive utilization of natural resources, causing depletion of natural resources. population density has a significant effect on environmental quality. the result is quite consistent with the findings of alam (2010). he also found the increase in population density affected the decrease of water quality in pakistan. from the estimation results, it seemed that to achieve a higher quality of the environment, population density must be reduced. the population is an important capital in carrying out economic activities. each one percent increase in population on this earth due to birth is important for human survival itself. in response to this, policies relating to population ilham economic development and environmental degradation in indonesia: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 196 density factors in an area should be considered about the negative impact on the environment. one solution was equalizing the distribution of population. equitable distribution of population can reduce population density. during this time, population density in an area or province shows the size of the maximum number of people who can inhabit the area. the second solution was educating the population. education for people was needed to provide information for the residents about protecting the environment. environmental education also must be easily accessible to be reached by the community. another factor that causes environmental degradation is the number of vehicles. the estimation results for the variable of the number of vehicles indicated there was a positive impact on environmental degradation. the number of vehicles harms environmental quality because it exhausts the emissions that pollute the environment. the environment becomes polluted because of the many pollutants in the air. meanwhile, the vehicles need the fuel to support the combustion process in the engine vehicle to produce the thrust. the combustion process can occur imperfectly so it could produce residuals that polluting the air. the problem of vehicles is not only the impact on reducing air quality but also the use of energy and the use of environmental technology for the vehicle to minimize environmental degradation. however, from the estimation results, which show the negative impact of motor vehicles on the increasing degradation of indonesia's environment, it should be understood that the number of motor vehicles must not be reduced to reach a more quality environment. borhan et al. (2012) mentioned several developing countries are particularly concerned about how to boost economic development as the environment was degraded. in essence, motor vehicles are needed to boost the economic sector, including for the transportation sector, which means taking part in the national economy. indonesia still needs increased activity in the transportation sector in achieving economic development to increase national welfare. ilham economic development and environmental degradation in indonesia: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 197 appendix table 6 estimation result of fixed effect model for the series 2011-2014 dependent variable: log(eqi) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) log(grdpc) -0.133*** -0.047 (0.028) (0.050) log(agr) -0.191*** -0.006 -0.005 0.139 0.136 (0.052) (0.092) (0.093) (0.114) (0.119) log(ind) -0.201*** -0.197** -0.197** -0.096 -0.047 (0.045) (0.082) (0.086) (0.097) (0.099) log(mining) -0.093** -0.001 -0.0003 -0.019 (0.041) (0.046) (0.045) (0.046) log(cons) -0.149*** -0.168** -0.103 (0.031) (0.080) (0.088) log(nv) -0.112*** -0.081** -0.077* (0.021) (0.039) (0.040) log(den) -0.165** -0.001 0.009 (0.070) (0.073) (0.077) obsservation 124 124 124 124 124 124 124 124 124 124 124 124 r2 0.198 0.129 0.181 0.053 0.202 0.228 0.057 0.181 0.181 0.220 0.236 0.255 adjusted r2 -0.072 -0.164 -0.095 -0.267 -0.067 -0.032 -0.261 -0.107 -0.119 -0.078 -0.044 -0.053 f statistic 22.703*** (df = 1; 92) 13.643*** (df = 1; 92) 20.342*** (df = 1; 92) 5.113** (df = 1; 92) 23.310*** (df = 1; 92) 27.220*** (df = 1; 92) 5.532** (df = 1; 92) 10.063*** (df = 2; 91) 6.635*** (df = 3; 90) 6.262*** (df = 4; 89) 9.278*** (df = 3; 90) 4.962*** (df = 6; 87) note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01 ilham economic development and environmental degradation in indonesia: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 198 table 7 estimation result of fixed effect model for the series 2015-2019 dependent variable: ln(eqi) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) ln(grdpc) 0.547*** -0.084 -0.214 -0.284 0.027 -0.026 -0.105 (0.140) (0.205) (0.209) (0.216) (0.046) (0.062) (0.082) ln(den) 1.924*** 2.086*** 0.623 0.865 0.121 0.156 0.051 (0.333) (0.519) (0.678) (0.701) (0.092) (0.125) (0.143) ln(nv) 0.405*** 0.490*** 0.297** 0.367** 0.035 0.068 (0.065) (0.105) (0.135) (0.145) (0.022) (0.046) observations 155 155 155 155 155 155 155 279 279 279 279 279 r2 0.110 0.213 0.238 0.214 0.244 0.243 0.254 0.001 0.007 0.010 0.008 0.016 adjusted r2 -0.114 0.015 0.045 0.008 0.046 0.044 0.050 -0.124 -0.118 -0.115 -0.121 -0.116 f statistic 15.198*** (df = 1; 123) 33.293*** (df = 1; 123) 38.332*** (df = 1; 123) 16.617*** (df = 2; 122) 19.702*** (df = 2; 122) 19.564*** (df = 2; 122) 13.699*** (df = 3; 121) 0.333 (df = 1; 247) 1.733 (df = 1; 247) 2.401 (df = 1; 247) 0.950 (df = 2; 246) 1.359 (df = 3; 245) note: *p<0.1; **p<0.05; ***p<0.01 ilham economic development and environmental degradation in indonesia: … conclusion during 2011-2014, the environmental quality index decreased by 3.56%. the index has increased by 2.67% during 2015-2019. overall environmental quality has an average of 64.67 and is still consistent in low-level quality. the special capital city of jakarta was the worst quality of the environment, instead of west java and banten. disaggregation of the index shows a decreasing trend of water and forest quality. it was caused by contamination of pollutants in several rivers and forest losses in four years. panel data regression has been conducted to test the impact of economic development, population density and number of vehicles on the environment. thus, it concluded that economic development, population density, and the number of vehicles have triggered environmental degradation in indonesia. hence, indonesia has to direct its economic development model, such as a green economy. since the magnitude showed a negative effect on environmental quality, however, we cannot blame economic activities as a cause of environmental degradation. the key is to formulate the right and consistent policy framework. besides, it is necessary to conduct intensive coordination with stakeholders, government institutions, and business actors. on the other hand, the growth of the population should be equalized with growth in human development. in addition, the distribution of population should be equalized among provinces which can be supported by opening a new economic cluster to supply a new work-field. moreover, education is still the most important thing. education for the population was needed to provide information on protecting environmental quality. environmental-based education should be accessible to the public. one of which could be implemented by putting environmental-based education in indonesia’s education curriculum. thus, the unstoppable growth of vehicles should implement the development of eco-friendly combustion technology besides reducing fuel consumption. road-making by plasticbased material can be considered to prevent land damage from plastic waste. the solutions given here can be considered to protect environmental quality from declining on the recent day, which has been triggered by the progress of development. references akbostancı, e., türüt-aşık, s., & tunç, g. i̇. 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(2008). community environment and local governance in indonesia: locating the commonweal. london: routledge. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v7i1.6024 https://www.menlhk.go.id/site/single_post/70 https://www.menlhk.go.id/site/download_file?file=1609312579.pdf https://doi.org/10.1002/2016wr018655 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2017.04.041 introduction image (2).jpg image (3).jpg image (4).jpg image (5).jpg image (6).jpg image (7).jpg image (8).jpg image (9).jpg image (10).jpg image (11).jpg image (12).jpg image (13).jpg image (14).jpg image (15).jpg image (16).jpg image (17).jpg image (18).jpg image (19).jpg image (20).jpg microsoft word 07-jaka jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 12, nomor 1, april 2011, hlm.76-89 sumber pendapatan asli daerah kabupaten dan kota indrajati hertanto dan jaka sriyana fakultas ekonomi, universitas islam indonesia, yogyakarta condong catur, depok, sleman, yogyakarta 55283, indonesia, telepon:+62-0274-881546 885376 e-mail: jakasriyana@uii.ac.id abstract: this paper aims to investigate the effect of the factors that determine local government own revenue in the districts /cities in west java province. we analyze the data of all districts/cities in the period of 2006 until 2009. analyses were performed by a panel data regression method. based on the results of analysis we obtained that the number of industries, population and gross domestic product has positive and significant impact on revenue. this result is a portrait of society that economic activity is indicated by gross domestic product growth and the industry has strong links with the government sector, particularly with regard to revenue receipts. from the other side, it can also be concluded that the activities of local governments will depend on private sector economic activity. keywords: local government own revenue, gross regional product, economics, the number of industries, the private economic sector abstrak: paper ini bertujuan mengetahui pengaruh faktor-faktor yang menentukan pendapatan asli daerah (pad) di kabupaten/kota di provinsi jawa barat. data yang dianalisis adalah data semua kabupaten dalam kurun waktu tahun 2006-2009. analisis dilakukan dengan metode regresi data panel. berdasarkan hasil analisis diperoleh hasil bahwa jumlah industri, penduduk, dan pendapatan domestik bruto (pdrb) berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap pendapatan asli daerah (pad). hasil ini mengambarkan bahwa kegiatan ekonomi masyarakat yang ditunjukkan oleh pertumbuhan pdrb dan jumlah industri memiliki hubungan erat dengan sektor pemerintah, khususnya berkaitan dengan penerimaan pendapatan daerah. dari sisi lain dapat disimpulkan juga bahwa kegiatan pemerintah daerah akan sangat tergantung kepada kegiatan ekonomi sektor swasta. kata kunci: pendapatan asli daerah, pendapatan domestik bruto, jumlah industri, sektor ekonomi swasta pendahuluan sejak diberlakukannya uu no. 22 tahun 1999 tentang perimbangan daerah dan uu no. 25 tahun 1999 tentang perimbangan keuangan pusat dan daerah telah terjadi pelimpahan kewenangan yang semakin luas kepada pemerintah daerah dalam rangka meningkatkan efisiensi dan efektivitas penyelenggaraan fungsi pemerintahan daerah. penyelenggaraan fungsi pemerintahan yang lebih luas oleh pemerintah daerah tersebut perlu didukung berbagai faktor sumber daya yang mampu menggerakkan jalannya organisasi pemerintahan dalam rangka pencapaian tujuan. undang-undang tersebut kemudian disempurnakan kembali dalam uu no. 32 tahun 2004 dan uu no. 33 tahun 2004. kedua ketentuan perundangan ini memberikan kesempatan yang luas kepada pemerintah daerah, baik dalam penggalian maupun optimalisasi pemanfaatan berbagai potensi yang dimiliki. dalam rangka penyelenggaraan otonomi daerah, penyerahan, pelimpahan dan penugasan urusan pemerintahan kepada daerah secara nyata dan bertanggung jawab harus diikuti dengan pengaturan, pembagian, dan pemansumber pendapatan asli daerah (indrajati hertanto dan jaka sriyana) 77 faatan sumberdaya nasional secara adil, termasuk perimbangan keuangan antara pemerintah pusat dan pemerintah daerah. penyelenggaraan pemerintah daerah dan pelayanannya dilakukan bedasarkan prinsip-prinsip transparansi, pertisipasi, dan akuntabilitas. indonesia merupakan salah satu negara berkembang yang bertujuan untuk mewujudkan suatu masyarakat adil dan makmur yang merata materiil dan spiritual berdasarkan pancasila dan undangundang dasar 1945 di dalam wilayah negara kesatuan republik indonesia. tujuan ini mencerminkan upaya menjamin stabilitas pertumbuhan dan pemerataan. indonesia merupakan negara yang terdiri dari banyak daerah yang memiliki perbedaan alokasi anggaran, potensi, serta keunggulan. perbedaan dalam pengalokasikan anggaran terlihat dalam jumlah anggaran yang diberikan pemerintah untuk tiap daerah tergantung pada kebutuhan di tiap daerah tersebut. ada beberapa sumber dana yang diberikan oleh pemerintah untuk kemajuan tiap daerah. dana tersebut antara lain dana yang bersumber dari anggaran pendapatan dan belanja negara (apbn), anggaran pendapatan dan belanja daerah (apbd) provinsi dan kabupaten/kota, juga beberapa pinjman dari luar negeri serta sumber dana pemerintah yang lain (mark, 2004). otonomi daerah di satu sisi memberikan kewenangan yang luas kepada pemerintah daerah, namun di sisi lain memberikan implikasi tanggung jawab yang lebih besar bagi pemerintah daerah dalam upaya peningkatan kesejahteraan masyarakat. kemandirian untuk mengelola dan mengatur rumah tangga sendiri akan terwujud dengan baik apabila terdapat dukungan (partisipasi) publik. hal ini relatif akan dapat terwujud bila terjadi proses distribusi, baik pada kebutuhan masyarakat maupun perolehan serta pembagian pendapatan untuk daerah dan masyarakat secara merata. otonomi daerah dilaksanakan pada saat daerah mempunyai tingkat kesiapan yang berbeda, baik dari segi sumber daya maupun kemampuan manajerial daerah. suatu daerah mampu melaksanakan otonomi jika memiliki kemampuan keuangan daerah, yang berarti daerah tersebut memiliki kemampuan dan kewenangan untuk menggali sumber-sumber keuangan, mengelola dan menggunakan keuangannya sendiri untuk membiayai penyelenggaraan pemerintahan. selain itu ketergantungan kepada bantuan pusat harus seminimal mungkin, sehingga pad harus menjadi sumber keuangan terbesar yang didukung oleh kebijakan perimbangan keuangan pusat dan daerah. namun demikian untuk daerah kota dan kabupaten di indonesia belum bisa melaksanakannya (sasana, 2005; siagian, 2008). faktor keuangan merupakan faktor utama yang merupakan sumber daya finansial bagi pembiayaan penyelenggaraan roda pemerintahan daerah. salah satu sumber daya finansial yang dapat mendukung fungsi pemerintahan daerah adalah pendapatan asli daerah (pad). pad merupakan penerimaan yang diperoleh dari sumber-sumber dalam wilayahnya sendiri yang dipungut berdasarkan peraturan daerah yang sesuai dengan peraturan perundang-undangan yang berlaku. menurut suryono (2010), otonomi daerah dan juga pemerintah dan pembangunan daerah dapat diwujudkan hanya apabila disertai dengan otonomi keuangan yang efektif. ini berarti bahwa pemerintah daerah secara finansial haruslah independen terhadap pemerintah pusat dengan jalan sebanyak mungkin menggali sumber-sumber pad seperti pajak, retribusi dan lain-lain. dalam hal ini kreativitas dan inisiatif suatu daerah dalam menggali sumber keuangan akan sangat tergantung pada kebijakan yang diambil oleh pemerintah (abdullah dan halim, 2003; riduansyah, 2003; santosa dan rahayu, 2005). pertumbuhan ekonomi merupakan suatu gambaran yang nyata dari dampak suatu kebijakan pembangunan yang dilaksanakan, khususnya dalam bidang ekonomi. pertumbuhan tersebut merupakan laju pertumbuhan yang terbentuk dari berbagai macam sektor ekonomi yang tidak langsung menggambarkan tingkat perubahan ekonomi yang terjadi. bagi daerah, indikator ini sangat perlu untuk mengetahui keberhasilan pembangunan yang telah dicapai dan berguna untuk menentukan arus pembangunan di masa yang akan datang. laju pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah dapat ditunjukkan dengan produk domestik regional bruto (pdrb) yang merefleksikan peningkatan pendapatan masyarakat. semakin tinggi pendajurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 12, nomor 1, april 2011: 76-89 78 patan seseorang maka akan semakin tinggi pula kemampuan untuk membayar berbagai pungutan yang ditetapkan oleh pemerintah. dalam konsep makro dapat dianalogikan bahwa semakin besar pdrb yang diperoleh maka akan semakin besar pula potensi penerimaan daerah. jadi dengan adanya peningkatan pdrb maka hal ini akan mendorong peningkatan pendapatan asli daerah. pada tahun 2006-2009 kabupaten/kota yang memberikan peranan relatif besar dalam pembentukan pdrb provinsi jawa barat, yaitu berasal dari kabupaten bekasi sebesar 51.789 miliar, kabupaten bogor sebesar 30.952 miliar, dan kabupaten bandung sebesar 29.228 miliar. pdrb atas dasar harga konstan. dilihat dari potensi kabupaten/kota, penyumbang terbesar terhadap total pdrb jawa barat, merupakan daerah konsentrasi industri pengolahan khususnya industri pengolahan barang mentah menjadi barang jadi, seperti rokok, suku cadang mobil maupun motor, serta alat-alat rumah tangga, dan setiap harinya menghasilkan miliaran output yang akan berpengaruh terhadap pendapatan di provinsi jawa barat. dengan adanya peningkatan pdrb antarkabupaten/ kota maka hal ini berarti ada perubahan peningkatan kesejahteraan masyarakat di provinsi jawa barat, bisa dikatakan bahwa provinsi jawa barat sangatlah makmur akan penghasilan yang didapatkan dari pdrb tersebut. perkembangan industrialisasi di indonesia juga merupakan faktor penting dalam pembentukan pendapatan daerah. dalam beberapa tahun terakhir ini sudah sangat banyak sekali industri, mulai dari industri yang paling kecil hingga industri yang paling besar, dimana setiap industri itu memberikan dampak positif terhadap masyarakat sekitar, juga terhadap keuangan negara ini khususnya di daerah-daerah yang banyak memiliki jumlah industri, namun secara tidak langsung juga memberikan dampak negatif kepada lingkungan sekitar dengan membuang limbah sembarangan ataupun bisa merugikan negara dengan tidak membayar pajaknya, tapi secara umum sektor perindustrian sangat memberikan nilai menguntungkan, terutama dari sektor industri pengolahan yang mana sektor tersebut sudah cukup memberi kontribusi besar bagi negara ini. provinsi jawa barat merupakan salah satu provinsi yang ada di pulau jawa yang mengalami kemajuan pesat dari segi pendapatan asli daerah nya, sebagian besar pendapatan tersebut dihasilkan dari sumber-sumber yang mempengaruhinya seperti pajak, retribusi, dan lainlain yang telah disahkan, daerah yang cukup potensial antara lain kota bandung, kabupaten bogor dan kota bekasi, akan tetapi yang paling besar yang memberikan kontribusi pad di jawa barat ialah kota bandung, menurut badan pusat statistik (bps) sampai pada tahun 2009 kota bandung menghasilkan pad sebesar 374.712 (jutaan rupiah) hal ini dikarenakan selain kota bandung adalah ibukota jawa barat tetapi juga kota bandung merupakan kota dimana serba ada, mulai dari kebutuhan pariwisata, kebutuhan primer maupun kebutuhan yang lainnya, sehingga di sana terjadinya transaksi ekonomi yang secara tidak langsung pengaruhnya dapat meningkatkan pad di provinsi jawa barat itu sendiri. provinsi jawa barat juga mempunyai sektor industri yang cukup berkembang, mulai dari industri rumah tangga sampai dengan industri yang besar, daerah industri yang memberikan kontribusi besar sampai tahun 2009 menurut badan pusat statistik (bps) ialah kabupaten sukabumi dengan jumlah industri sebanyak 15.379 jumlah unit industri, industri di jawa barat sangat potensial, contohnya di jawa barat memiliki banyak industri pariwisata, yang tiap harinya ramai dikunjungi oleh wisatawan, baik asing maupun lokal, serta industri rumah tangga yang membuat barang mentah sehingga menjadi barang jadi, seperti sepatu kulit, tas, pernak pernik dan lain-lain, bahkan penjualannya ada yang sudah sampai di ekspor ke sejumlah negara besar di dunia. jumlah industri tersebut nantinya akan menghasilkan suatu output yang akan dikenakan pajak oleh pemerintah daerah tersebut, dan pajak tersebut akan menjadi suatu pemasukan untuk provinsi jawa barat. faktor lain yang menentukan keberhasilan pembangunan ekonomi suatu daerah adalah kualitas dan jumlah penduduk. penduduk merupakan orang yang bertempat tinggal disuatu sumber pendapatan asli daerah (indrajati hertanto dan jaka sriyana) 79 wilayah tertentu. pengaruh jumlah penduduk pada tingkat moderat pada dasarnya positif dan bermanfaat bagi pembangunan ekonomi, baik bagi negara-negara maju maupun yang sedang berkembang. semakin banyak orang maka akan semakin banyak ide, semakin banyak orang yang mempunyai bakat dan kreatif, semakin banyak tenaga ahli dan dengan demikian akan semakin berkembang teknologi. selanjutnya dalam jangka panjang penduduk merupakan suatu keuntungan. simon juga mencatat bahwa, pertumbuhan penduduk juga merangsang pembangunan ekonomi. semakin besar jumlah penduduk akan mengakibatkan meningkatnya permintaan terhadap barang-barang konsumsi dan selanjutnya akan mendorong “economic of scale” dalam berproduksi, sehingga akan menurunkan biaya produksi. penduduk dapat mempengaruhi penerimaan pendapatan daerah, dengan meningkatnya jumlah penduduk akan meningkatkan permintaan terhadap barang-barang konsumsi. hal ini selanjutnya dapat mendorong peningkatan produksi sehingga akan mengakibatkan adanya perluasan usaha dan pendirian usaha baru pada sektor produksi, pendirian usaha baru akan menambah lapangan pekerjaan sehingga pendapatan masyarakat juga ikut meningkat. dengan adanya kecenderungan pertambahan jumlah penduduk pada gilirannya akan meningkatkan pendapatan daerah. ada banyak hal yang menjadi dampak positif terhadap provinsi jawa barat itu sendiri, dengan meningkatnya jumlah penduduk maka pendapatan pemerintah akan naik secara tidak langsung. oleh karena itu, seiring berkembangnya jumlah penduduk di jawa barat akan juga akan meningkatkan perkembangan ekonomi di provinsi jawa barat itu sendiri. atas dasar latar belakang tersebut perlu dilakukan suatu analisis terhadap berbagai faktor penentu pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah kota dan kabupaten di provinsi jawa barat. kajian ini bertujuan menguji pengaruh faktor-faktor jumlah penduduk, jumlah industri dan pdrb terhadap pendapatan asli daerah di masingmasing kabupaten/kota di provinsi jawa barat. beberapa penelitian terdahulu telah banyak mengkaji tentang keuangan daerah di indonesia, khususnya sejak diberlakukannya kebijakan desentralisasi dan otonomi daerah. adriani dan handayani (2008), melakukan penelitian tentang pengaruh pdrb dan jumlah penduduk terhadap pad kabupaten merangin. dari hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pdrb mempunyai pengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap pad, sedangkan jumlah penduduk mempunyai hubungan negatif dan pengaruhnya tidak signifikan secara parsial terhadap pad kabupaten merangin, tetapi secara bersamaan kedua variabel tersebut pengaruhnya adalah signifikan. pdrb dan jumlah penduduk mempunyai hubungan yang sangat kuat dengan pad dan model yang diestimasi adalah tepat. siagian (2008) melakukan penelitian untuk menguji pengaruh dana alokasi umum (dau), pad, dan pendapatan lain-lain yang sah terhadap belanja pemerintah daerah kabupaten/kota di provinsi sumatera utara dengan menggunakan sampel sebanyak 12 kabupaten/kota. data yang dianalisis dalam penelitian ini adalah data time series yakni data tahun 2004-2006 dari laporan apbd (anggaran) yang diperoleh melalui situs departemen keuangan republik indonesia direktorat jenderal perimbangan keuangan. pengujian hipotesis dalam pengujian ini menggunakan regresi linear sederhana dengan uji t, dan regresi liniear berganda dengan uji f, regresi sederhana digunakan untuk melihat pengaruh jumlah dau, pad dan pendapatan lain-lain secara terpisah terhadap jumlah total belanja. regresi berganda digunakan dengan tujuan untuk memprediksi apakah komponenkomponen pendapatan daerah tersebut secara serentak mempengaruhi belanja daerah. dari hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa baik secara terpisah ataupun secara bersama-sama dana alokasi umum (dau), pad, dan pendapatan lain-lain yang dianggap sah berpengaruh signifikan positif terhadap belanja daerah. abdullah dan halim (2003), melakukan penelitian untuk menguji pengaruh pajak daerah dan pad terhadap belanja daerah di indonesia dengan menggunakan sampel kabupaten dan kota di provinsi jawa barat, jawa tengah, jawa timur, daerah istimewa yogyakarta dan bali. data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data tahun 2001 dan 2002 dari laporan jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 12, nomor 1, april 2011: 76-89 80 apbd pemda yang diperoleh dari situs departemen keuangan, hipotesis yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah analisis regresi berganda, dari hasil penelitian menunjukkan secara bersama-sama pajak daerah dan pad berpengaruh signifikan positif terhadap belanja daerah. santosa dan rahayu (2005), melakukan penelitian tentang analisis pendapatan asli daerah (pad) dan faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhinya dalam upaya pelaksanaan otonomi daerah di kabupaten kediri. dari hasil penelitian menunjukan bahwa faktor-faktor yang diduga mempengaruhi persentase perubahan pad adalah total pengeluaran pembangunan, penduduk dan pdrb sangat kuat. ketiga variabel independen pengeluaran pembangunan, penduduk, dan pdrb yang mempunyai pengaruh paling besar yaitu variabel penduduk. pendapatan asli daerah adalah penerimaan daerah dari berbagai usaha pemerintah daerah untuk mengumpulkan dana guna keperluan daerah yang bersangkutan dalam membiayai kegiatan rutin maupun pembangunannya, yang terdiri atas pajak daerah, retribusi daerah, bagian laba usaha milik daerah, dan lain-lain penerimaan asli daerah yang sah. pendapatan asli daerah diartikan sebagai pendapatan daerah yang tergantung keadaan perekonomian pada umumnya dan potensi dari sumber-sumber pendapatan asli daerah itu sendiri. pembangunan ekonomi suatu negara dalam periode jangka panjang akan membawa perubahan mendasar dalam struktur ekonomi negara tersebut. dimulai dari ekonomi tradisional yang dititikberatkan pada sektor pertanian, menuju perekonomian modern yang didominasi oleh sektor industri. perubahan struktur ekonomi pada umumnya disebut transformasi struktural dan dapat didefinisikan sebagai rangkaian perubahan dalam komposisi permintaan, perdagangan luar negeri (ekspor dan impor), produksi, dan penggunaan faktor produksi seperti tenaga kerja dan modal yang diperlukan guna mendukung pembangunan dan pertumbuhan ekonomi (octaviani, 2001). dalam istilah ekonomi, industri juga mempunyai dua pengertian yaitu pengertian secara luas dan pengertian secara sempit. dalam pengertian secara luas, industri mencakup semua usaha atau kegiatan di bidang ekonomi yang bersifat produktif. sedangkan pengertian secara sempit, industri ialah suatu kegiatan yang mengubah suatu barang secara mekanis, kimia, atau dengan tangan sehingga menjadi barang jadi atau setengah jadi. menurut badan pusat statistik (bps), industri adalah suatu kegiatan ekonomi yang melakukan kegiatan mengubah barang jadi dan barang yang kurang nilainya menjadi barang yang lebih nilainya. berdasarkan pengertian tersebut, kita dapat memahami bahwa industri merupakan salah satu kegiatan ekonomi manusia yang sangat penting. melalui kegiatan industri akan dihasilkan berbagai kebutuhan manusia mulai dari peralatan sederhana sampai peralatan modern. jadi pada dasarnya kegiatan itu lahir untuk memenuhi kegiatan manusia. dengan kata lain telah dikenal sejak zaman dahulu walaupun pada awal perkembangannya masih sangat sederhana dan terbatas hanya untuk memenuhi kebutuhan sendiri dan dalam lingkup yang terbatas. industri dapat digolongkan berdasarkan beberapa sudut tinjauan atau beberapa pendekatan. di indonesia digolongkan berdasarkan kelompok komoditas, skala usaha, dan berdasarkan arus produksinya. jumlah industri di indonesia kini semakin pesat perkembangannya. hal itu memberikan dampak positif terhadap perekonomian indonesia itu sendiri, dimana ketika sebuah industri itu dibangun banyak hal yang akan terjadi, seperti penyerapan tenaga kerja, memperbanyak output baik barang maupun jasa sehingga bisa meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi. pendapatan daerah dapat dipengaruhi berbagai macam faktor, salah satu di antaranya dari sektor industri, ketika suatu daerah tersebut memiliki banyak perindustrian maka bukan tidak mungkin daerah tersebut akan menjadi makmur dan dapat mensejahterakan masyarakat di daerah tersebut. pengaruh tersebut dimulai dari pajak-pajak yang dikenakan oleh pemerintah setempat dan nanti akan dikembalikan lagi oleh pemerintah dalam bentuk layanan publik (merifield, 2000). jadi secara tidak langsung sektor industri memberikan pengaruh terhadap pendapatan daerah tersebut, contohnya sebuah industri yang telah dibangun akan sumber pendapatan asli daerah (indrajati hertanto dan jaka sriyana) 81 membuat bangunan inti dimana akan menjadi tempat produksi, dan industri tersebut akan menghasilkan sebuah output baik barang maupun jasa, lalu barang itu akan dijual kepada konsumen, bangunan tersebut nantinya akan dikenakan pajak bumi bangunan (pbb) lalu output yang dihasilkan akan dikenakan pajak produksi oleh pemerintah, dari tahapan-tahapan inilah yang mempengaruhi pendapatan daerah tersebut (riduansyah, 2003; sasana, 2005). di negara sedang berkembang yang mengalami ledakan jumlah penduduk termasuk indonesia akan selalu mengaitkan antara kependudukan dengan pembangunan ekonomi. akan tetapi hubungan antara keduanya tergantung pada sifat dan masalah kependudukan yang dihadapi oleh setiap negara. setiap negara atau daerah akan mempunyai masalah kependudukan yang khas dan potensi serta tantangan yang khas pula. jumlah penduduk yang besar bagi indonesia merupakan modal dasar pembangunan tetapi sekaligus juga sebagai beban pembangunan. sebagai aset apabila dapat meningkatkan kualitas maupun keahlian atau keterampilannya sehingga akan meningkatkan produksi nasional. jumlah penduduk yang besar akan menjadi beban jika struktur, persebaran dan mutunya sedemikian rupa sehingga hanya menuntut pelayanan sosial dan tingkat produksinya rendah sehingga menjadi tanggungan penduduk yang bekerja secara efektif. indonesia sedang mengalami transisi demografi menuju penduduk tua yang justru berpengaruh negatif terhadap penerimaan pemerintah (sriyana, 2008). pertumbuhan penduduk tinggi akan dapat menaikkan output melalui penambahan tingkat dan ekspansi pasar baik pasar dalam negeri maupun luar negeri. penambahan penduduk tinggi yang diiringi dengan perubahan teknologi akan mendorong tabungan dan juga penggunaan skala ekonomi di dalam produksi. penambahan penduduk merupakan satu hal yang dibutuhkan dan bukan suatu masalah, melainkan sebagai unsur penting yang dapat memacu pembangunan dan pertumbuhan ekonomi. besarnya pendapatan dapat mempengaruhi penduduk. jika jumlah penduduk meningkat maka pendapatan yang dapat ditarik juga meningkat. metode penelitian data dan variabel operasional data yang digunakan dalam kajian ini adalah data time series dan cross section. data yang dibutuhkan adalah data yang berhubungan dengan variabel penelitian yaitu, pendapatan asli daerah, jumlah industri, jumlah penduduk dan produk domestik regional bruto di provinsi jawa barat. data diperoleh dari badan pusat statistik (bps) provinsi jawa barat. variabelvariabel yang digunakan dalam kajian ini adalah pad, jumlah industri, pdrb di kabupaten/kota di provinsi jawa barat dalam periode tahun 2006 sampai 2009. data-data tersebut berdasarkan harga konstan sehingga mampu menunjukkan perkembangan riil. metode analisis dalam penelitian ini menggunakan analisis regresi panel data yang merupakan bentuk regresi untuk menganalisis kombinasi data antara deret waktu (time-series) dan kerat lintang (cross section). dalam model regresi data panel, persamaan model regresi dengan menggunakan data cross-section dapat ditulis sebagai berikut: yi = βo + β1 xi + εi ; i = 1, 2, ..., n (1) dimana: n adalah banyaknya data cross section. untuk persamaan model dengan data time-series adalah: yt = βo + β1 xt + εt ; t = 1, 2, ..., t (2) dimana: t adalah banyaknya data time-series. mengingat data panel merupakan gabungan dari time-series dan cross-section, maka model dapat ditulis: yit = βo + β1 xit + εit (3) i = 1, 2, ..., n ; t = 1, 2, ..., t dimana: n adalah banyaknya observasi, n × t adalah banyaknya data panel, t adalah banyaknya waktu. dalam kajian ini, sesuai dengan variabel yang dianalisis, model regresi dapat ditulis: jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 12, nomor 1, april 2011: 76-89 82 yit = boi + b1x1it + b2x2it + b3x3it + eit dimana: yit adalah pad, x1it adalah jumlah industri, boi adalah konstanta, x2it adalah jumlah penduduk, b1, b2, b3 adalah koefisien, x3it adalah pdrb, eit adalah error. ada tiga metode yang bisa digunakan untuk bekerja dengan data panel. metode pertama adalah pendekatan pooled least square (pls), yang secara sederhana menggabungkan (pooled) seluruh data time series dan cross section dan kemudian mengestimasi model dengan menggunakan metode ordinary least square (ols). model kedua adalah pendekatan fixed effect (fe) yang memperhitungkan kemungkinan bahwa peneliti menghadapi masalah omitted variables dimana hal ini mungkin membawa perubahan pada intercept time series atau cross section. model dengan fe menambahkan dummy variables untuk memungkinkan adanya perubahan intercept ini. model ketiga adalah pendekatan efek acak (random effect). model ini berasumsi memperbaiki efisiensi proses least square dengan memperhitungkan faktor kesalahan dari cross section dan time series. model random effect adalah variasi dari estimasi generalized least square. metode fixed effect dan random effect disebut juga metode generalized least square (gls). (1) pendekatan pooled least square (pls) atau (common effect). estimasi common effect merupakan teknik yang paling sederhana untuk mengestimasi data panel. hal ini karena hanya dengan mengkombinasikan data time series dan data cross section tanpa melihat perbedaan antara waktu dan individu, sehingga dapat menggunakan metode ols dalam mengestimasi model data panel. dalam pendekatan estimasi ini, tidak diperhatikan dimensi individu maupun waktu. diasumsikan bahwa perilaku data antarwilayah sama dalam berbagai kurun waktu. dengan mengkombinasikan data time series dan data cross section tanpa melihat perbedaan antara waktu dan individu, maka model persamaan regresinya: yit = b0 + b1x1it + b2x2it + b3x3it +......+eit (4) (2) pendekatan slope konstan tetapi intersep berbeda antarindividu (fixed effect). salah satu kesulitan prosedur panel data adalah bahwa asumsi intersep dan slope yang konsisten sulit terpenuhi. untuk mengatasi hal tersebut, yang dilakukan dalam panel data adalah dengan memasukkan variabel boneka (dummy variable) untuk mengizinkan terjadinya perbedaan nilai parameter yang berbeda-beda baik lintas unit (cross section) maupun antarwaktu (time-series). pendekatan dengan memasukkan variabel boneka ini dikenal dengan sebutan model efek tetap (fixed effect). model fixed effect dengan variable dummy dapat ditulis sebagai berikut: yit = b0i + b1x1it + b2x2it + b3x3it +β4 d1it + β5 d2it + β6 d3it +.….+ eit (5) model fixed effect dengan tanpa variabel dummy dapat ditulis sebagai berikut: yit = b0i + b1x1it + b2x2it + b3x3it +.….+ eit (6) (3) pendekatan efek acak (random effect). keputusan untuk memasukkan variable boneka dalam model efek tetap (fixed effect) akan dapat mengurangi banyaknya derajat kebebasan (degree of freedom) yang pada akhirnya akan mengurangi efisiensi dari parameter yang diestimasi. model panel data yang di dalamnya melibatkan korelasi antar-error term karena berubahnya waktu karena berbedanya observasi dapat diatasi dengan pendekatan model komponen error (error component model) atau disebut juga model efek acak (random effect). pendekatan estimasi random effect ini menggunakan variabel gangguan (error terms). variabel gangguan ini mungkin akan menghubungkan antar waktu dan antardaerah. penulisan konstanta dalam model random effects tidak lagi tetap tetapi bersifat random sehingga dapat ditulis dalam model sebagai berikut: yit = b0i + b1x1it + b2x2it + b3x3it +...+ eit (7) pemilihan model karena adanya berbagai asumsi dan kemungkinan hasil yang berbeda pada analisis dengan regresi data panel, maka diperlukan pemilihan model yang tepat untuk dapat menggambarkan hasil analisis yang terbaik. ada dua uji yang dapat digunakan untuk memilih model terbaik, sumber pendapatan asli daerah (indrajati hertanto dan jaka sriyana) 83 yaitu: (1) uji f: digunakan untuk memilih antara model common effect ataukah model fixed effect, dimana setelah melakukan regresi antara model common effect dan model fixed effect pemilihannya dilakukan dengan melihat nilai probabilitas f statistiknya. ho: memilih model common effect, jika nilai probabilitas f statistiknya tidak signifikan. h1: memilih model fixed effect, jika nilai probabilitas f statistiknya signifikan. (2) uji hausman: digunakan untuk memilih model yang terbaik antara fixed effect dan random effect, dimana setelah melakukan regresi antara model fixed effect dan random effect pemilihanya dilakukan dengan melihat nilai probabilitas chi-squarenya. ho: memilih model random effect, jika nilai chi square-nya tidak signifikan. h1: memilih model fixed effect, jika nilai chi square-nya signifikan. hasil dan pembahasan dalam penelitian ini penulis menggunakan data sekunder yang di dapat dari data sekunder. perkembangan data-data yang dianalisis dari tahun 2006 sampai tahun 2009 yang mencakup tujuh belas kabupaten dan sembilan kota yang ada di provinsi jawa barat dipaparkan pada beberapa tabel berikut. dari tabel 1 dapat dilihat bahwa terjadi peningkatan pad dari tahun ke tahun di seluruh kabupaten/kota. namun di kabupaten bandung barat dari tahun 2006 sampai dengan tahun 2007 tidak memiliki data dikarenakan terjadinya pemekaran di kabupaten bandung itu sendiri, akan tetapi pada tahun 2008 sampai dengan tahun 2009 sudah memiliki data tersendiri. dari keseluruhan kabupaten dan kota di mana yang memiliki pad paling besar ialah kota bandung dikarenakan selain kota tabel 1. realisasi pad kabupaten dan kota provinsi jawa barat 2006 – 2009 (jutaan rupiah) no kabupaten dan kota pendapatan asli daerah 2006 2007 2008 2009 1 bogor 199.424 260.031 250.155 309.226 2 sukabumi 53.645 45.940 51.691 875.62 3 cianjur 60.174 66.675 63.711 87.867 4 bandung 108.322 151.876 87.082 151.496 5 garut 50.323 71.376 76.457 91.429 6 tasikmalaya 35.440 24.309 17.239 37.671 7 ciamis 24.966 36.177 29.039 46.561 8 kuningan 35.731 37.415 36.225 52.748 9 92.348 99.318 112.468 116.133 10 majalengka 50.043 47.818 35.966 53.530 11 sumedang 58.699 60.564 63.472 90.533 12 indramayu 51.147 415.09 24.441 68.615 13 subang 58.782 506.41 47.568 68.801 14 purwakarta 51.781 51.199 457.77 67.084 15 karawang 112.643 89.231 88.641 115.412 16 bekasi 172.659 166.250 155.093 200.653 17 bandung barat 0 0 24.136 35.508 18 bogor 73.731 68.509 63.525 89.223 19 sukabumi 36.577 43.848 45.546 57.237 20 bandung 225.596 275.631 298.685 374.712 21 cirebon 56.405 59.912 25.082 70.926 22 bekasi 126.067 162.881 133.481 229.532 23 depok 67.218 72.080 68.666 88.872 24 cimahi 50.325 54.659 50.358 74.163 25 tasikmalaya 50.829 24.309 53.405 60.880 26 banjar 13.237 16.150 19.762 24.400 total 1.916.112 1.986.158 1.921.894 2.663.212 sumber: bps jawa barat, 2008-2010 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 12, nomor 1, april 2011: 76-89 84 bandung adalah ibukota dari jawa barat, bandung juga merupakan salah satu kota yang ramai dikunjungi untuk berwisata, mulai dari wisata kuliner sampai dengan wisata belanja setelah jakarta. bedasarkan pada tabel 1, kota banjar adalah kota yang menghasilkan pad paling sedikit dibanding kabupaten dan kota lainnya, hal ini disebabkan kota tersebut masih minimnya transaksi perekonomiannya dan juga jumlah penduduk yang sedikit, sehingga menyebabkan pemasukan kota banjar jadi lebih sedikit. dari tabel 2 dapat dilihat bahwa terjadi peningkatan jumlah industri dari tahun ke tahun di hampir seluruh kabupaten dan kota di provinsi jawa barat. namun dapat dilihat pada tahun 2006 dari seluruh kabupaten dan kota diumana jumlah industri tersebut masih sangat minim dikarenakan perhitungan tersebut tidak menyeluruh, maka yang terjadi jumlah tersebut sangatlah sedikit dibanding pada tahun-tahun setelahnya yaitu 2007 sampai dengan tahun 2009 mengalami peningkatan sangat drastis dari ratusan jumlah unit industri sampai dengan ribuan jumlah unit industri, mulai dari industri kecil, menengah, dan industri besar. berdasarkan pada tabel 2, kabupaten sukabumi ialah kabupaten yang paling besar jumlah industrinya dan kabupaten bandung barat yang paling sedikit jumlah industrinya dari kabupaten dan kota secara keseluruhan dari tahun 2006 sampai dengan tahun 2009. namun jika dilihat dari total keseluruhan dari tahun 2007 sampai dengan tahun 2008 mengalami penurunan yang cukup drastis, dan dari tahun 2008 sampai dengan tahun 2009 mengalami kenaikan lagi tetapi tidak banyak sampai melebihi tahun 2007, hal ini kemungkinan disebabkan oleh banyaknya industri yang tidak bisa berkembang sehingga ia harus gulung tikar. tabel 2. jumlah industri kabupaten dan kota provinsi jawa barat 2006 – 2009 (jumlah unit) no kabupaten dan kota jumlah industri 2006 2007 2008 2009 1 bogor 85 14.574 14.747 14.797 2 sukabumi 63 115.178 15.274 15.379 3 cianjur 95 1.158 1.184 1.219 4 bandung 175 13.173 13.277 13.469 5 garut 7 9.710 9.746 9.774 6 tasikmalaya 87 1.283 1.350 1.395 7 ciamis 22 1.288 1.305 1.331 8 kuningan 42 2.024 2.123 2.179 9 cirebon 58 10.546 10.601 10.637 10 majalengka 35 7.338 7.351 7.381 11 sumedang 17 4.995 5.037 5.108 12 indramayu 18 2.325 2.354 2.354 13 subang 2 3.296 3.305 3.410 14 purwakarta 26 10.636 10.705 10.791 15 karawang 12 9.204 9.264 9.314 16 bekasi 114 10.319 10.469 10.695 17 bandung barat 0 0 0 17 18 bogor 113 7.395 8.020 8.089 19 sukabumi 53 9.368 9.416 9.435 20 bandung 72 10.674 10.816 10.817 21 cirebon 17 9.324 9.342 9.352 22 bekasi 52 9.692 9.822 9.881 23 depok 18 10.097 10.138 10.201 24 cimahi 0 6.044 6.059 6.071 25 tasikmalaya 165 9.457 9.590 9.675 26 banjar 37 9.122 9.148 9.182 total 1.385 298.220 200.443 218.936 sumber: bps jawa barat, 2008-2010 sumber pendapatan asli daerah (indrajati hertanto dan jaka sriyana) 85 dari tabel 3 dapat dilihat bahwa terjadi peningkatan jumlah penduduk dari tahun ke tahun di hampir seluruh kabupaten dan kota di provinsi jawa barat. itu membuktikan bahwa di provinsi jawa barat dari tahun 2006 sampai dengan tahun 2009 terus bertambahnya populasi penduduk, lebih banyak angka kelahiran di bandingkan dengan angka kematian, hal tersebut yang menjadikan jumlah penduduk dari tahun ke tahun terus meningkat. berdasarkan pada tabel 3, kota cirebon adalah kota yang paling sedikit jumlah penduduknya dan kabupaten bogor yang paling banyak jumlah penduduknya dari kabupaten dan kota secara keseluruhan dari tahun 2006 sampai dengan tahun 2009. banyaknya jumlah penduduk di provinsi jawa barat sangat mempengaruhi pad di provinsi jawa barat itu sendiri, apalagi di setiap tahunnya terus mengalami peningkatan yang cukup drastis, akan tetapi akan banyak dampak buruk akan terjadi dengan tidak seimbangnya pengeluaran yang dilakukan pemerintah setempat seiring bertambahnya jumlah penduduk. dari tabel 4 dalam lampiran dapat dilihat bahwa terjadi peningkatan pdrb dari tahun ke tahun di seluruh kabupaten dan kota provinsi jawa barat. pdrb terbesar dimiliki oleh kabupaten bekasi dan yang memiliki pdrb terkecil ialah kota banjar. pemilihan model dengan uji hausman pemilihan model dalam penelitian ini menggunakan uji hausman untuk memilih model random effect atau fixed effect. tabel 5 menyajikan hasil uji hausman: dari tabel 5 tentang hasil uji hausman untuk pemilihan model menunjukkan bahwa nilai tabel 3. jumlah penduduk kabupaten dan kota provinsi jawa barat 2006 – 2009 (jumlah orang) no kabupaten dan kota jumlah penduduk 2006 2007 2008 2009 1 bogor 4.216.186 4.316.236 4.402.026 4.453.927 2 sukabumi 2.240.901 2.258.253 2.277.020 2.293.742 3 cianjur 2.125.023 2.149.121 2.169.984 2.189.328 4 bandung 4.399.128 3.038.038 3.116.056 3.148.951 5 garut 2.375.725 2.429.167 2.481.471 2.504.237 6 tasikmalaya 1.743.324 1.792.092 1.839.682 1.860.157 7 ciamis 1.565.121 1.686.076 1.605.891 1.615.759 8 kuningan 1.118.776 1.140.777 1.163.159 1.173.528 9 cirebon 2.134.656 2.162.644 2.192.429 2.211.186 10 majalengka 1.197.994 1.204.379 1.210.811 1.219.145 11 sumedang 1.089.889 1.112.336 1.134.288 1.143.992 12 indramayu 1.778.396 1.795.372 1.811.764 1.827.878 13 subang 1.441.191 1.459.077 1.476.418 1.486.412 14 purwakarta 784,797 798,272 809,962 819,005 15 karawang 2.031.128 2.073.356 2.112.433 2.134.389 16 bekasi 1.991.230 2.032.008 2.076.146 2.121.122 17 bandung barat 0 1.493.225 1.531.072 1.548.434 18 bogor 855,846 866,034 876,292 895,596 19 sukabumi 294,646 300,694 305,800 311,559 20 bandung 2.340.624 2.364.312 2.390.120 2.414.704 21 cirebon 285,363 290,45 298,995 304,152 22 bekasi 2.040.258 2.084.831 2.128.384 2.176.743 23 depok 1.393.568 1.412.772 1.430.829 1.465.826 24 cimahi 506,251 518,985 532,114 547,862 25 tasikmalaya 610,456 624,478 637,083 640,324 26 banjar 177,118 180,744 184,577 185,993 total 40.737.594 41.483.729 42.194.869 42.693.951 sumber: bps jawa barat, 2008-2010 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 12, nomor 1, april 2011: 76-89 86 hausman test < lebih kecil dari nilai chi square sehingga dapat disimpulkan bahwa model yang baik untuk diestimasi adalah model random effect. hasil estimasi model random effect analisis ini dalam kajian ini digunakan untuk mengetahui pengaruh jumlah industri, jumlah penduduk, dan pdrb terhadap pendapatan asli daerah (pad) kabupaten/kota di jawa barat. adapun bentuk persamaan regresinya adalah: yit = βo + β1x1it + β2x2it + β3x3it + ui (8) keterangan: y adalah pendapatan asli daerah (pad) kabupaten/kota di jawa barat (miliar rupiah); x1 adalah jumlah industri kabupaten/ kota di jawa barat (buah), x2 adalah jumlah penduduk kabupaten/kota di jawa barat (orang), x3 adalah pdrb kabupaten/kota di jawa barat (miliar rupiah), βo adalah konstanta, βo-β3 adalah koefisien regresi, uit adalah variabel gangguan, i adalah kabupaten/kota, t adalah periode waktu (tahun). berdasarkan perhitungan diperoleh hasil yang disajikan dalam tabel 6. secara statistik hasil regresi menunjukkan hasil yang baik. koefisien determinasi (r2) yang bermanfaat untuk mengetahui seberapa besar kemampuan variabel bebas dalam menjelaskan secara komprehensif terhadap variabel terikat memberikan angka cukup tinggi, yaitu sebesar 0,939. hal ini menunjukkan kuatnya hubungan antara variabel bebas dengan variabel terikatnya. uji t digunakan untuk membuktikan pengaruh variabel independen terhadap variabel dependen secara individual dengan asumsi bahwa variabel yang lain tetap atau konstan. pengujian pengaruh variabel jumlah industri, jumlah penduduk, dan pdrb terhadap variabel pendapatan asli daerah menunjukkan nilai probabilitas masing-masing sebesar 0,0251; 0,0145; dan 0,000 yang berarti signifikan untuk pengujian pada α sebesar 0,05. hasil ini menjelaskan bahwa ketiga variabel tersebut memiliki pengaruh secara positif dan signifikan terhadap pendapatan asli daerah (pad) kabupaten/kota di jawa barat. hasil ini mengindikasikan bahwa pertumbuhan penerimaan pendapatan asli daerah sangat tergantung pada peningkatan besaran ketiga variabel tersebut. nilai konstanta hasil regresi secara keseluruhan kabupaten/kota di jawa barat sebesar 12.289,76. adapun nilai konstanta masing-masing kabupaten merupakan informasi khusus untuk masing-masing kabupaten. jika dibandingkan dengan nilai masing-masing nilai kontabel 5. hasil pemilihan model dengan uji hausman model hausman test chi square tabel keterangan hasil pemilihan model yit = βo + β1x1it + β2x2it + β3x3it + ui 6,939 7,8413 nilai hausman test < dari nilai chi squaretabel random effect sumber: lampiran hasil olah data tabel 6. hasil estimasi model random effect metode gls variabel koefisien regresi t-statistik probabilitas konstanta 12289,76 0,917941 0,3609 jumlah industri 0,035310 2,039390 0,0251 jumlah penduduk 0,012003 2,167389 0,0145 pdrb 5,151244 6,234946 0,0000 r2 : 0,939 dw-test : 2,273 n : 36 sumber: hasil olah data. sumber pendapatan asli daerah (indrajati hertanto dan jaka sriyana) 87 stanta kabupaten dan kota adalah sebagai berikut. nilai konstanta kabupaten sumedang sebesar -1.066,901; kabupaten cianjur sebesar 1.539,507; kabupaten banjar sebesar 209,392; kota cirebon sebesar 7.362,598; kabupaten kuningan sebesar -3.659.748; kota tasikmalaya sebesar 9.139,122; kabupaten majalengka sebesar 516,12; kabupaten purwakarta sebesar 1.066,901; kabupaten subang sebesar -7.233,228; dan kabupaten sukabumi 4.891,623 berada dibawah nilai konstanta secara keseluruhan, sedangkan kabuparten/kota lainnya berada di atas nilai konstanta secara keseluruhan. hasil ini memberikan gambaran bahwa pad otonom kabupaten kota tersebut, yaitu tingkat pad yang diakibatkan oleh perubahan variabel lain pada kabupaten tersebut lebih rendah dari ratarata pad otonom kabupaten/kota di provinsi jawa barat. adapun pad otonom kabupaten/ kota lainnya lebih besar dari rata-rata pad di provinsi tersebut. hasil regresi tersebut menunjukkan bahwa jumlah industri kabupaten/kota di jawa barat berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap pad kabupaten/kota di jawa barat. hal ini berarti, jika jumlah industri meningkat, maka pad kabupaten/kota di jawa barat juga akan meningkat. dari analisis regresi tersebut menunjukkan jika jumlah industri naik sebesar 1 unit, maka pad kabupaten/kota akan naik rata-rata sebesar 0,035310 miliar rupiah. industri merupakan salah satu kegiatan ekonomi masyarakat yang sangat penting. melalui kegiatan industri akan dihasilkan berbagai kebutuhan masyarakat mulai dari peralatan sederhana sampai peralatan modern. berkembangnya industri akan menghasilkan pajak barang dan sekaligus pajak pendapatan sehingga akan berpengaruh positif terhadap pendapatan asli daerah. kajian ini juga menunjukkan bahwa jumlah penduduk berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap pad) kabupaten/kota di jawa barat. hal ini berarti, jika jumlah penduduk mengalami peningkatan, maka pad kabupaten/ kota di jawa barat akan meningkat signifikan. hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa pertambahan jumlah penduduk kabupaten/kota di jawa barat berdampak pada peningkatan potensi pad kabupaten/kota rata-rata sebesar 0,012003 miliar rupiah. di negara sedang berkembang yang mengalami ledakan jumlah penduduk termasuk indonesia akan selalu mengaitkan antara kependudukan dengan pembangunan ekonomi. akan tetapi hubungan antara keduanya tergantung pada sifat dan masalah kependudukan yang dihadapi oleh setiap negara. dengan demikian tiap negara atau daerah akan mempunyai masalah kependudukan yang khas dan potensi serta tantangan yang khas pula. jumlah penduduk yang besar bagi indonesia dipandang sebagai aset modal dasar pembangunan tetapi sekaligus juga sebagai beban pembangunan. sebagai aset apabila dapat meningkatkan kualitas maupun keahlian atau keterampilannya sehingga akan meningkatkan produksi nasional. temuan ini mengindikasikan bahwa pertambahan jumlah penduduk akan menjadi faktor positif bagi pembangunan daerah sehingga berpotensi meningkatkan pad. informasi lain dari analisis ini menunjukkan bahwa pdrb kabupaten/kota di jawa barat berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap pad. hal ini berarti, jika pdrb kabupaten/ kota di jawa barat mengalami peningkatan, maka pad kabupaten/kota di jawa barat juga akan meningkat. hasil analisis memberikan hasil bahwa jika pdrb kabupaten/kota naik sebesar 1 miliar rupiah, maka pad kabupaten/ kota di jawa barat akan naik sebesar 5,151244 miliar rupiah. apabila ditinjau dari segi pendapatan pdrb merupakan jumlah pendapatan yang diterima oleh faktor-faktor produksi yang dimiliki oleh penduduk di wilayah tersebut yang ikut serta dalam proses produksi dalam jangka waktu tertentu. hubungan antara pad dengan pdrb merupakan hubungan secara fungsional, karena pdrb merupakan fungsi dari pad. dengan meningkatnya pdrb maka akan menambah penerimaan pemerintah daerah untuk membiayai program-program pembangunan. selanjutnya akan mendorong peningkatan pelayanan pemerintah daerah kepada masyarakat yang diharapkan akan dapat meningkatkan produktivitasnya. temuan analisis ini juga menggambarkan bahwa 20 persen dari total pdrb akan diserap oleh sektor pemerintah daerah. nilai ini juga mengindikasikan jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 12, nomor 1, april 2011: 76-89 88 bahwa nilai tax ratio kabupaten/kota di provinsi jawa barat berada pada tingkat moderat. simpulan hasil regresi data panel menunjukkan bahwa jumlah industri, penduduk, dan pdrb berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap pendapatan asli daerah (pad) kabupaten/kota di jawa barat. hal ini berarti, jika ketiga variabel tersebut meningkat, maka pad kabupaten/ kota di jawa barat juga akan meningkat. hasil ini menggambarkan bahwa sektor pemerintah daerah sangat tergantung pada kegiatan ekonomi dan perkembangan industri di sektor swasta. untuk meningkatkan pad kabupaten/ kota di jawa barat, maka pemerintah kabupaten/kota di jawa barat perlu meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah mellaui pengembangan industri di daerah dengan cara mendorong peningkatan investasi daerah dalam rangka mengoptimalkan potensi daerah. hal ini dapat dilakukan antara lain dengan mendorong pertumbuhan usaha-usaha kecil dan menengah (umkm) sebagai bagian dari sektor industri, misalnya dengan pembangunan infrastruktur yang lebih baik, pengembangan inovasi produk, serta regulasi untuk meningkatkan pertumbuhan perusahaan-perusahaan yang akan meningkatkan pendapatan asli daerah (pad) kabupaten/ kota di jawa barat. daftar pustaka abdullah dan halim. 2003. pengaruh pajak daerah dan pad terhadap belanja daerah di indonesia. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan, vol 7, no. 1. adriani, evi dan handayani, sri indah. 2008. pengaruh pdrb dan jumlah penduduk terhadap pad kabupaten merangin. jurnal ilmiah, vol 8, no.2. bps. 2006-2009. jawa barat dalam angka. jawa barat: badan pusat statistik bps. 2006-2009. jumlah penduduk jawa barat. jawa barat: badan pusat statistik. kenward, lloyd r. 2004. survey of recent developments. bulletin of indonesian economic studies 40 (1): 9–35. lledo, victor duarte. 2005. tax systems under fiscal adjustment: a dynamic cge analysis of the brazilian tax reform, imf working paper wp/05/142, new york: international monetary fund. marks, stephen v. 2004. fiscal sustainability and solvency: theory and recent experience in indonesia. bulletin of indonesian economic studies, vol. 40, no. 2,227–42. merifield, john. 2000. state government expenditure determinants and tax revenue determinants revisited, public choice, 102: 25-50. octaviani, dian. 2001. inflasi, pengangguran, dan kemiskinan di indonesia: analisis indeks forrester greer & horbecke. media ekonomi, vol. 7, no. 8, 100-118. riduansyah, muhammad. 2003. kontribusi pajak daerah dan retribusi daerah terhdap pendapatan asli daerah (pad) dan anggaran pendapatan dan belanja daerah (apbd) guna mendukung pelaksanaan otonomi daerah (studi kasus pemerintah daerah kota bogor). jurnal makara, sosial humaniora, vol.7, no. 2. santosa, purbayu budi dan rahayu, retno fuji. 2005. analisis pendapatan asli daerah (pad) dan faktor-kaktor yang mempengaruhinya dalam upaya pelaksanaan otonomi daerah di kabupaten kediri. jurnal dinamika pembangunan, vol 3, no.1. sasana, hadi. 2005. analisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi penerimaan pajak bumi dan bangunan (pbb): studi kasus di kabupaten banyumas. jurnal dinamika pembangunan, vol.2, no.1. siagian, monika. 2008. pengaruh dana alokasi umum (dau), pendapatan asli daerah, dan pendapatan lain-lain yang sah terhadap belanja pemerintah daerah kabupaten/kota di provinsi sumatera utara. jurnal studi ekonomi, vol 2, no. 2. sumber pendapatan asli daerah (indrajati hertanto dan jaka sriyana) 89 sriyana, jaka. 2008. dampak transisi demografi terhadap defisit fiskal di indonesia, jurnal ekonomi pembangunan (jep), vol.13, no.3, desember. yogyakarta: fe uii. lampiran tabel 4. produk domestik regional bruto harga konstan 2000 provinsi jawa barat 2006–2009 (miliar rupiah) no kabupaten dan kota pdrb 2006 2007 2008 2009 1 bogor 26.546 28.151 29.721 30.952 2 sukabumi 7.405 7.715 8.015 8.308 3 cianjur 7.048 7.343 7640 7.939 4 bandung 17.640 18.648 19.674 20.527 5 garut 9.129 9.563 10.011 10.568 6 tasikmalaya 4.511 4.707 4.896 5.291 7 ciamis 6.116 6.422 6.739 7.071 8 kuningan 3.330 3.470 3.619 3.778 9 cirebon 6.670 7.027 7.372 7.748 10 majalengka 3.686 3.866 4.042 4.225 11 sumedang 4.694 4.912 5.137 5.381 12 indramayu 12.621 12.956 13.234 13870 13 subang 6.174 6.473 6.780 7.103 14 purwakarta 5.964 61.97 6.506 6.849 15 karawang 15.568 16.525 17.553 19.195 16 bekasi 43.793 46.481 49.302 51.789 17 bandung barat 6.466 6.811 7.158 7.464 18 bogor 3.782 4.013 4.253 4.508 19 sukabumi 1.509 1.607 1.705 1810 20 bandung 23.043 24.942 26.979 29.228 21 cirebon 5.192 5.513 5.824 6.116 22 bekasi 12.453 13.255 14.042 14.622 23 depok 5.066 5.418 5.771 6.129 24 cimahi 5.369 5.639 5.908 6180 25 tasikmalaya 3.098 3.283 3.470 3.668 26 banjar 616 646 677 712 total 247.490 261.619 276.029 22.840.459 sumber: bps jawa barat, 2008-2010 image (2).jpg image (3).jpg image (4).jpg image (5).jpg image (6).jpg image (7).jpg image (8).jpg image (9).jpg image (10).jpg image (2).jpg image (3).jpg image (4).jpg image (5).jpg image (6).jpg image (7).jpg image (8).jpg image (9).jpg image (10).jpg image (11).jpg microsoft word 07-raditya _154-161_.doc jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 8, nomor 2, oktober 2007: 154-161 forecasting saving deposit in malaysian islamic banking: comparison between artificial neural network and arima raditya sukmana 1 mahmud iwan solihin 2 1 fakultas ekonomi universitas airlangga surabaya kampus b jalan airlangga no.4 surabaya 60286 telp. (031) 5033642, 5036584 fax. (031) 5026288 e-mail: radityask@yahoo.com 2 department of mechatronics engineering, international islamic university malaysia jalan gombak 53100 kuala lumpur malaysia tel. (603)20564447 fax (603)20564853 abstract the aim of this paper is to test the ability of artificial neural network (ann) as an alternative method in time series forecasting and compared to autoregressive integrated moving average (arima) in studying saving deposit in malaysian islamic banks. artificial neural network is getting popular as an alternative method in time series forecasting for its capability to capture volatility pattern of non-linear time series data. in addition, the use of an established tool of analysis such as arima is of importance here for comparative purposes. these two methods are applied to monthly data of the malaysian islamic banking deposits from january 1994 to november 2005. the result provides evidence that ann using “early stopping” approach can be used as an alternative forecasting engine with univariate time series model. it can predict non-linear time series using the pattern of the data directly without any statistical analysis. keywords: artificial neural network, arima, saving deposit introduction finding the trends and the patterns in banking and financial data has been put in highly attention by businesses and academicians. the detection of trends and patterns has combined statistical and econometric modeling. the mathematical models related to the forecasting may fail to predict the patterns in the dynamic of economic. however new methods of forecasting is growing very fast recently. new intelligent methods, including ann, have attracted forecaster to predict the trends and patters. in fact, many forecasters dealing with financial matters are using neural network method. neural network can be used to forecast stock market, foreign exchange trading, bond yield and commodity future trading. various attempts of economic time series prediction have been done ending with saying that ann based forecasting outperform the conventional model [1]. many researchers have also suggested that neural networks can serve as alternative and novel tools in business, e.g., in forecasting financial time series [2]. ann has many advantages over conventional methods of analysis. first, they have the ability to analyze complex patterns quickly and with a high forecasting saving deposit (raditya sukmana and mahmud iwan solihin) 155 degree of accuracy. second, ann makes no assumptions about the nature of the data distribution. in dealing with the autocorrelation analysis, we often use arima model (box jenkins) as a statistical approaches for forecasting. this analysis mainly detects the autocorrelation between the previous observations of time series. this method is very efficient to forecast linear time series. the problem of arima approach arises when the time series is of increasing variance or when the time series represents nonlinear processes [3]. kolarik [3] has conducted time series forecasting using neural network. he compared the result with the well known forecasting techniques, arima. his result showed that forecasting error using ann is less compared to that of arima. ann is a good method to capture the data patterns of nonlinear time series. ann for time series analysis relies purely on past data that were observed. another advantage in using ann is that it is powerful enough to model any form of time series. the ability to generalize allows ann to learn even in the case of noisy or high volatility process. basically it has four steps: collecting and preprocessing the input patterns, determining the ann structure and architecture, training the ann forecaster, and validation test of the trained ann. this paper discusses univariate time series forecasting using ann in comparison with arima. theoretical concepts in this research as follows: 1. artificial neural network a neural network is a computational technique that benefits from techniques similar to ones employed in the human brain. its very basic concept was introduced in 1940s. it is designed to mimic the ability of the human brain to process data and information and comprehend patterns. it imitates the structure and operations of the three dimensional lattice of network among brain cells (nodes or neurons, and hence the term "neural"). an ann can be defined as a processing system consisting of a large number of simple, highly interconnected processing element (neurons) in an architecture inspired by the structure of the human brain [4]. an ann is characterized by its architecture, learning algorithm and activations function. the architecture describes the connections between the neurons. it consists of, generally, an input layer, an output layer and adequate number of hidden layers in between. the layers in the network are interconnected by links that associated with weight that dictate the effect on the information passing through them. these weights are updated by learning algorithm. the activation function relates the output of a neuron to its input. the most commonly used activation functions are: threshold, piece-wise linear, sigmoid and gaussian function. . figure 1 shows a single artificial neuron, where wji is the weight values and f is activation function. figure 1. a single artificial neuron table 1 shows the typical activation function used for multilayer neural network. the choice of activation function from one layer to another may be different. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 8, nomor 2, oktober 2007: 154 161 156 table 1. activation functions type of activation function function linear f(v)=v threshold ⎩ ⎨ ⎧ < ≥ = 00 01 )( vif vif vf log sigmoid ve vf −+ = 1 1 )( tan sigmoid v v e e vf 2 2 1 1 )( + − = − the learning process of the neural network can be likened to the way a child learns to recognize patterns, shapes and sounds, and discerns among them. for example, the child has to be exposed to a number of examples of a particular type of tree for her to be able to recognize that type of tree latter on. in addition, the child has to be exposed to different types of trees for her to be able to differentiate among trees. the human brain has the uncanny ability to recognize and comprehend various patterns. the neural network is extremely primitive in this aspect. the network’s strength, however, is in its ability to comprehend and discern subtle patterns in a large number of variables at a time without being stifled by detail. it can also carry out multiple operations simultaneously. not only can it identify patterns in a few variables, it also can detect correlations in hundreds of variables. it is this feature of the network that is particularly suitable in analyzing relationships between a large numbers of market variables. the networks can learn from experience. they can cope with “fuzzy” patterns – patterns that are difficult to reduce to precise rules. they can also be retrained and thus can adapt to changing market behavior. the network holds particular promise for econometric applications. multilayer feed forward neural networks as a common type of neural network with appropriate parameters are capable of approximating a large number of diverse functions arbitrarily well [5]. even when a data set is noisy or has irrelevant inputs, the networks can learn important features of the data. inputs that may appear irrelevant may in fact contain useful information. the promise of neural networks lies in their ability to learn patterns in a complex signal. recently, there are at least two most popular ann in various applications, namely multilayer feed forward network (mfn) and radial basis function network (rbfn). ann has been popular because of its capability as general approximate of nonlinear process. multilayer feed forward network with back propagation learning algorithm is used in this paper. this type of ann is shown in figure 2. figure 2. a typical multilayer feed forward neural network the output of node j in the hidden layer is given by ⎟ ⎠ ⎞ ⎜ ⎝ ⎛ += ∑ = n i jijij bxwfh 1 . …..(1) forecasting saving deposit (raditya sukmana and mahmud iwan solihin) 157 and the output of the network by ∑ = = k i iio hwy 1 ).( …..(2) the learning process of ann is carried out using input-output data to update the weights and biases. one of the technique used to obtain these parameter is back propagation algorithm [4,6]. the weight adjustment is done iteratively from the output layer backward to previous layers to achieve a minimum mean square error (mse) between the network output and the desired output [4]. the number of iterations is often termed as epoch. the back propagation algorithm can be summarized as follows. suppose a mfn is trained by gradient descent to approximate an unknown function, based on some training data consisting of pairs (x,t). the vector x represents a pattern of input to the network, and the vector t the corresponding target (desired output). the overall gradient with respect to the entire training set is just the sum of the gradients for each pattern; then it is described how to compute the gradient for just a single training pattern. let’s number the units, and denote the weight from unit j to unit i by wij. a. definitions: the error signal for unit j: the (negative) gradient for weight wij: the set of nodes anterior to unit i: the set of nodes posterior to unit j: b. the gradient. the gradient is expanded into two factors by use of the chain rule: the first factor is the error of unit i. the second is putting the two together, we get . to compute this gradient, we thus need to know the activity and the error for all relevant nodes in the network. c. forward activaction. the activity of the input units is determined by the network's external input x. for all other units, the activity is propagated forward: note that before the activity of unit i can be calculated, the activity of all its anterior nodes (forming the set ai) must be known. since feedforward networks do not contain cycles, there is an ordering of nodes from input to output that respects this condition. d. calculating output error. assuming that the sum-squared loss is used. the error for output unit o is simply jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 8, nomor 2, oktober 2007: 154 161 158 e. error back propagation. for hidden units, the error is back propagated from the output nodes (hence the name of the algorithm). again using the chain rule, we can expand the error of a hidden unit in terms of its posterior nodes: of the three factors inside the sum, the first is just the error of node i. the second is while the third is the derivative of node j's activation function: for hidden units h that use the tanh activation function, we can make use of the special identity tanh(u)' = 1 tanh(u)2, giving putting all the pieces together, yields the common steps in ann learning process are as follows. a. input collection and preprocessing of the input data (if necessary). this includes the number of sampled data and data normalization. b. determining the structure of the ann. including number of inputs, neurons, hidden layers and activation functions. c. training the ann, using the input pattern and desired output. d. validation of the trained ann. 2. artificial neural network for time series forecasting the ability of ann to discover nonlinear relationships in input data makes them ideal for modeling nonlinear time series. therefore, ann can be used to predict future values in a time series based on current and historical data. this can be considered as univariate modeling of time series. figure 3 shows the typical network for time series forecasting. figure 3. multilayer feed forward network for time series forecasting however, due to the tedious and time consuming of neural networks training, some of models reported in literature did not go through comprehensive experiments. the most time consuming process in ann computation is determining the structure of the ann. unfortunately, the number of neurons, hidden layers and the types of activation functions can not be determined beforehand. it is usually found after quite long experiment. even they have resulted poor prediction though they have successfully train the ann model. this hap forecasting saving deposit (raditya sukmana and mahmud iwan solihin) 159 pens when the ann has poor generalization capability or the data used is limited to small number. the ann has memorized the training examples but it has not learned to generalize the new input pattern in prediction. this is because what so called over fitting occurs during the training. the error on the training set is driven to a very small value, but when new data is presented to the network the error is large. one method to improve generalization capability is called early stopping. in this technique the available data is divided into three subsets. the first subset is the training set, which is used for computing the gradient and updating the network weights and biases. the second subset is the validation set. the error on the validation set is monitored during the training process. the validation error will normally decrease during the initial phase of training, as does the training set error. however, when the network begins to over fit the data, the error on the validation set will typically begin to rise. when the validation error increases for a specified number of iterations, the training is stopped, and the weights and biases at the minimum of the validation error are returned [7]. 3. autoregressive integrated moving average (arima) it is a forecasting model using combination of three components, namely: firstly, autoregressive term. it may use first order or higher order ar terms. each ar relates to the use of a lagged value of the residual in the forecasting equation for the unconditional residual. secondly, integration orders term. each integration order corresponds to differencing series being forecast. first order integration means that the forecasting model is designed to the first difference of the original series. lastly is the moving average term. moving average forecasting model which is using lagged values of the forecast error is to improve the current forecast. this arima method consists of four steps [8] (1). identification. this first steps is to identify the lagged value of the autoregressive term the order of integrated and the moving average term. (2). estimation. the next step is to estimate the parameter of the autoregressive and moving average term. this can be done by the simple least squares.(3). diagnostic checking. this is to see whether the chosen model fits the data reasonably well. (4). forecasting. after considering all the steps, finally, we use the model to make a forecasting. research method the number of available monthly data of islamic banking deposit (saving) is 143. it starts from january 1994 up to november 2005. the data can be downloaded from bank negara malaysia website. about the first 75 percent data is used for training and the last 25 percent data is forecasted by the ann and arima. the forecasting is carried out as one stepahead prediction based on historical data using time delay input referring to figure 2. the mfn with back propagation learning algorithm is used in this paper. in the time series forecasting using ann, the data is divided into two sets. typically, the first 75 percent is used to train the ann and the rest is to test the obtained ann forecaster. since early stopping is applied to improve the prediction, thus the training data is divided further into two sets, one as training set and one as validation set for early stopping. this step is vital to build good generalization of the ann. after one step ahead has been predicted, then the ann is retrained with new input pattern to predict the jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 8, nomor 2, oktober 2007: 154 161 160 next one step. this is carried out iteratively until 33 times prediction. the training was specified to achieve mse of 10-5. the training phase has usually no much problem. the problem is when new input pattern fed to the ann to predict the new value. early stopping plays an important role here to improve generalization capability. findings and discussion the plots comparing the actual index and the forecasting result by ann with early stopping technique and arima is shown in figures 4. from the plot, it can be seen that the ann has shown a good capability for time series forecasting based on historical data of malaysia islamic banking deposit. the proposed method of ann was also able to forecast the pattern with low error. the corellogram is used to test whether the data is stationary or not for arima. it shows that the data is not stationary in the level form, but it is stationary in the first difference. after considering the requirement needed for estimating the model, using least square regression, we come up with the model below: deposit = 30.29168 + 0.84512* deposit (-1) + 0.195871*deposit (-7) to see the accuracy between these two method (ann and arima), we compute the error for each forecasting tools. in doing this, we employ the mean absolute percentage error (mape). ann arima mape 1.30 1.38 islamic bank deposit 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 m ar -0 3 a pr -0 3 m ay -0 3 ju n03 ju l-0 3 a ug -0 3 s ep -0 3 o ct -0 3 n ov -0 3 d ec -0 3 ja n04 f eb -0 4 m ar -0 4 a pr -0 4 m ay -0 4 ju n04 ju l-0 4 a ug -0 4 s ep -0 4 o ct -0 4 n ov -0 4 d ec -0 4 ja n05 f eb -0 5 m ar -0 5 a pr -0 5 m ay -0 5 ju n05 ju l-0 5 a ug -0 5 s ep -0 5 o ct -0 5 n ov -0 5 s av in g d ep os it actual arima ann figure 4. actual and predicted saving deposit forecasting saving deposit (raditya sukmana and mahmud iwan solihin) 161 conclusion forecasting is very important for decision maker to have an idea of what might occur in the future. we, in this paper, have tried to implement two method for forecasting, namely artificial neural network (ann) and autoregressive integrated moving average (arima). the result shows that ann can be used as an alternative prediction tool that produces a slightly better performance than arima. mape for ann is 1.3 and for arima is 1.38 and there is no statistical pre-analysis of the data needed to obtain the significant lag used like in arima. furthermore, ann can be used for multiple-ahead prediction tool as well. thus, short term and long term forecasting is also subject for ann research. references daniel, c.p.c., wei, n.c., lek, t.h.. 1999. using neural network to forecast foreign exchange rate. nanyang technological university. gujarati, d. 2003. basic econometric. international edition, 4th ed”, new york: mcgraw hill. hamid, s.a. 2004. primer on using neural networks for forecasting market variables. working paper, no. 2004-03, southern new hampshire university. hansen, james v., ray d. nelson, 2003, timeseries analysis with neural networks and arima-neural network hybrids, journal of experimental & theoretical artificial intelligence, vol. 15, no. 3, july, pp. 315-330. ho, s.l.; xie m.; goh t.n, 2002, a comparative study of neural network and box-jenkins arima modeling in time series prediction, computers and industrial engineering, vol. 42, no. 2, 11 april, pp. 371-375(5) kolarik, t., rudorfer., g, 1994. time series forecasting using neural network. time series and neural network, apl, 1994. kumar, s. 2004. neural networks: a classroom approach. new delhi: tata mc. graw hill. lin, c.t., and lee, g.c.s., 1996. neural fuzzy systems. a synergism to intelligent system. new jersey: prentice-hall. 1996. nelson, m., hill, t., remus, w., & o'connor, m. (1999). time series forecasting using neural networks: should the data be deseasonalized first? journal of forecasting, 18, 359-367. neural network toolbox user’s guide. 2001. the mathworks, inc. pai, ping-feng dan chih-sheng lin, 2005, a hybrid arima and support vector machines model in stock price forecasting, omega journal, vol. 33, no. 6, december, pp. 497-505. wong, b. k, t a bodnovich, y selvi, 1998, neural network applications in business: a review and analysis of the literature (1988-1995). decision support systems, vol 19, no. 4, pp.301-320. image (2).jpg image (3).jpg image (4).jpg image (5).jpg image (6).jpg image (7).jpg image (8).jpg image (9).jpg image (10).jpg image (11).jpg image (12).jpg image (13).jpg image (2).jpg image (3).jpg image (4).jpg image (5).jpg image (6).jpg image (7).jpg image (8).jpg image (9).jpg image (10).jpg image (11).jpg image (12).jpg image (13).jpg image (14).jpg image (15).jpg image (16).jpg image (2).jpg image (3).jpg image (4).jpg image (5).jpg image (6).jpg image (7).jpg image (8).jpg image (9).jpg image (10).jpg image (11).jpg image (12).jpg image (13).jpg image (14).jpg image (15).jpg image (16).jpg image (17).jpg microsoft word 08-tito jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 2, oktober 2013, hlm.163-173 pengujian hipotesis linder dalam kasus impor komoditas intra-industri manufaktur indonesia tito satrio1, ahmad jamli2 1penelitian dan pelatihan ekonomika dan bisnis (p2eb) feb ugm pertamina tower building 2nd floor, sosio humaniora street no. 1, bulaksumur, yogyakarta 55281, indonesia, phone: +62274548517 2fakultas ekonomika dan bisnis, universitas gadjah mada jalan sosio humaniora no.1, bulaksumur, daerah istimewa yogyakarta 55281, indonesia phone : +62 274 548510. e-mail korespondensi: satrio.boy@gmail.com naskah diterima: januari 2013; disetujui: september 2013 abstract: the study aims to examine the empirical validity of the linder hypothesis for indonesia’s import for manufacture intra-industry commodity from seven member of asean plus three (singapore, malaysia, thailand, philippines, japan, south korea, and china). this study uses balance panel data model with fixed effect approach. panel data model with fixed effect approach can control for country specific individual effect. the result implies that indonesia import more intensively with countries with high per capita income levels, which rejects the linder hypothesis. keywords: linder hypothesis; intra-industry trade; balance panel data; fixed effects approach jel classification: f13 abstrak: tujuan dari studi ini adalah untuk menguji validitas empiris hipotesis linder untuk impor komoditas intra-industri manufaktur indonesia dari tujuh negara asean plus three (singapura, malaysia, thailand, filipina, jepang, korea selatan, dan cina). studi ini menggunakan balance panel data model dengan fixed effect approach. model data panel dengan fixed effect approach dapat mengontrol country specific individual effect. hasil studi mengimplikasikan bahwa impor yang dilakukan oleh indonesia lebih intensif dengan negara-negara yang memiliki pendapatan per capital relative lebih tinggi, sehingga menolak hipotesis linder. kata kunci: hipotesis linder; perdagangan intra-industri; balance panel data model; fixed effects approach klasifikasi jel: f13 pendahuluan asean (the association of south east asia nations) dibentuk pada tanggal 8 agustus 1967 di bangkok oleh 5 negara, yaitu indonesia, malaysia, filipina, singapura, dan thailand melalui deklarasi bangkok. brunei darussalam bergabung pada tanggal 8 januari 1984, diikuti oleh vietnam pada tanggal 28 juli 1995, lao pdr dan myanmar pada tanggal 23 juli 1997, dan kamboja pada tanggal 30 april 1999. asean dibentuk dengan tujuan untuk meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi, kemajuan sosial, pengembangan kebudayaan, serta memajukan perdamaian di tingkat regional negara-negara anggota asean. negara-negara anggota asean telah mengkombinasikan gross domestic product (gdp) nominal mereka sebesar us$ 1,496,341.3 pada tahun 2009 (asean finance and macroeconomic surveillance unit database, 2011). namun, sebenarnya terdapat kesenjangan ekonomi yang cukup besar di antara negara-negara anggota asean seperti yang digambarkan oleh perbedaan dalam pdb per kapita mereka. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 2, oktober 2013: 163-173 164 secara rata-rata pendapatan per kapita semua negara anggota asean mengalami peningkatan. selama tahun 2007 hingga 2010 singapura merupakan negara dengan pendapatan per kapita tertinggi di asean, peringkat selanjutnya yaitu: brunei darussalam, malaysia, thailand, indonesia, filipina, myanmar, vietnam, laos, dan peringkat terakhir ditempati oleh kamboja. selanjutnya, negara plus three yang memiliki pendapatan per kapita tertinggi yaitu jepang, diikuti oleh korsel, dan kemudian china. perbedaan pendapatan per kapita tersebut terutama disebabkan oleh perbedaan produktivitas, perbedaan sumber daya, dan perbedaan jumlah penduduk. pada asean summit ke-9 di bali pada tahun 2003 telah disepakati pembentukan komunitas asean yang dikenal sebagai komunitas ekonomi asean (asean economic community). komunitas ekonomi asean bertujuan untuk menciptakan pasar tunggal dan basis produksi yang ditandai dengan bebasnya aliran barang, jasa, investasi, tenaga kerja terampil, dan perpindahan barang modal secara lebih bebas. dibentuknya komunitas ekonomi asean diharapkan dapat meningkatkan volume perdagangan intra-asean. selain afta, indonesia yang tergabung dalam asean juga terlibat dalam beberapa kesepakatan perdagangan bebas lainnya. salah satu pembentukan fta yang lebih luas telah disepakati, yaitu asean plus three fta. kerjasama asean plus three dimulai dengan dilakukannya pertemuan informal antara pemimpin asean dan mitra mereka dari asia timur, yaitu cina, jepang dan korea selatan ketika berlangsungnya asean informal summit ke-2 di malaysia pada tahun 1997. namun, proses kerjasama asean plus three ditetapkan sebagai forum resmi pada tahun 1999 ketika para pemimpin kedua kawasan tersebut mengeluarkan pernyataan bersama mengenai kerjasama asia timur pada asean plus three summit ke-3 di manila. dengan diresmikannya kerjasama asean plus three diharapkan dapat menciptakan kerjasama yang sifatnya substantif dan intensif. latar belakang terbentuknya asean plus three antara lain: (1) asia tenggara memberikan nilai penting yang strategis bagi jepang, cina, dan korea; (2) secara geopolitis, asia tenggara merupakan area transit perdagangan dan sebagai penyedia bahan baku; (3) populasi penduduk asia tenggara yang sangat besar merupakan pasar yang sangat potensial; (4) keterkaitan fdi yang sampai saat ini masih berlangsung antara asean dengan jepang, cina, dan korea selatan menjadikan kerjasama fta akan lebih menguntungkan; (5) perekonomian cina sangat kuat dan masih terus tumbuh, sepanjang perekonomian cina masih jauh di atas perekonomian sebagian besar negara asean maka perdagangan antara cina dan asean akan lebih bersifat komplemen daripada bersaing, dengan demikian akan tercipta trade creation (arifin, 2007). tabel 1. pdb per kapita negara-negara anggota asean plus three periode 2007-2010 (constant price in 2005 dolars, us dollars) no. negara 2007 2008 2009 2010 1 singapura 30.757 30.527 29.658 33.262 2 brunei d. 26.605 25.625 24.730 25.080 3 malaysia 5.781 5.951 5.752 6.064 4 thailand 2.990 3.045 2.955 3.167 5 indonesia 1.367 1.432 1.480 1.553 6 filipina 1.228 1.254 1.244 1.313 7 myanmar 874 897 933 971 8 vietnam 718 754 785 829 9 laos 529 559 590 628 10 kamboja 558 585 564 592 plus three 11 jepang 37.211 36.775 34.485 36.287 12 korsel 19.357 19.749 19.759 20.922 13 china 2.216 2.417 2.627 2.883 sumber: ers international macroeconomic data set (2012) pengujian hipotesis linder ... (tito satrio, ahmad jamli) 165 berdasarkan hubungapn perdagangan internasional antara indonesia dengan negaranegara asean plus three, perdagangan yang dilakukan oleh indonesia dengan asean plus three didominasi oleh barang-barang manufaktur. berdasarkan data dasar gtap versi 7.0, aliran impor indonesia dari negara-negara asean plus three lainnya didominasi oleh sektor-sektor manufaktur seperti peralatan elektronik, kemudian diikuti oleh sektor kimia, karet dan plastik. sebaliknya, kegiatan ekspor indonesia ke negara-negara asean plus three didominasi oleh sektor-sektor primer dari pertambangan dan penggalian seperti gas alam dan minyak mentah (firdaus, 2011). pada tahun 2009, sektor industri manufaktur indonesia tertekan dengan adanya krisis finansial global yang menyebabkan ekonomi di negara maju melemah. akibatnya pasar ekspor menyusut dan sebagian besar industri manufaktur yang berorientasi ekspor mulai mengalami penurunan. meskipun demikian, memasuki tahun 2010, pasar ekspor mulai bangkit kembali demikian juga pasar domestik. sektor yang mengalami peningkatan kinerja secara signifikan dialami oleh sektor manufaktur. kementerian perdagangan ri (2010) melaporkan bahwa kuatnya kinerja ekspor non migas didorong menguatnya kinerja ekspor produk manufaktur yang juga mencapai rekor tertinggi. ekspor manufaktur mempunyai peran terbesar terhadap total ekspor bukan migas, yaitu 62,6% dibandingkan produk lainnya seperti pertanian (3,3%) dan pertambangan dan lainnya (16,8%). tidak berbeda dengan kondisi peningkatan ekspor manufaktur yang dialami oleh indonesia, impor manufaktur juga mengalami peningkatan. berdasarkan publikasi kementerian perdagangan ri (2010) yang melaporkan bahwa peningkatan impor pada oktober 2010 didorong oleh meningkatnya impor seluruh kelompok barang, terutama bahan baku penolong, sebesar 26,6%. impor barang didominasi oleh pasar jepang, singapura, dan rrc, yaitu masing-masing sebesar us$ 1,7 miliar dengan pangsa pasar di indonesia mencapai 33,9%. intensitas perdagangan antara indonesia dengan asean plus three pada ekspor dan impor untuk perdagangan intra-industri manufaktur semakin meningkat dalam kurun waktu 1993-2010. berdasarkan gambar 1 menunjukkan bahwa jepang dan singapura merupakan negara tujuan ekspor terbesar di antara lima negara asean plus three lainnya. indonesia juga melakukan impor dari tujuh negara asean plus three pada komoditas sektor manufaktur. gambar 2 menunjukkan bahwa impor yang dilakukan oleh indonesia didominasi oleh komoditas yang berasal dari jepang, china, dan singapura. berdasarkan asal negara pengimpor, impor indonesia selama tahun 2009-2010 didominasi oleh china, yang pada tahun sebelumnya didominasi oleh jepang. studi ini menguji validitas empiris hipo sumber: uncomtrade, 2012 gambar 1. total nilai ekspor intra-industri manufaktur indonesia ketujuh negara asean plus three periode 1993-2010 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 2, oktober 2013: 163-173 166 tesis linder dari perspektif indonesia. rauh, alison (2009) dalam studinya dengan variabel dependen berupa ekspor dan impor sedangkan variabel independen mendukung hipotesis linder dengan berupa linder (perbedaan pendapatan per kapita riil), nilai tukar riil, dan gdp riil dengan memberikan hasil bahwa mendukung hipotesis linder. mcpherson, dkk (2001) dengan variabel dependen berupa impor dan variabel independen berupa linder (perbedaan pendapatan per kapita riil), nilai tukar riil, dan gdp riil menunjukkan hasil bahwa mendukung hipotesis linder. dakal, dharmendra, dkk (2009) dalam studinya dengan variabel dependen berupa ekspor propensities dan variabel independen berupa linder (perbedaan pendapatan per kapita riil), gdp riil, jarak, dan variabel dummy (1 untuk anggota asean dan 0 untuk bukan anggota asean) dengan hasil menunjukkan bahwa menolak hipotesis linder. anggraita, risty (2011) dengan variabel dependen yaitu import propensities dan variabel independen yaitu jarak, gdp nominal, gdp nominal rata-rata, perbedaan pendapatan per kapita nominal, fdi, dan gdp rata-rata dengan menunjukkan hasil bahwa menolak hipotesis linder. studi ini lebih memfokuskan pada analisis ada atau tidaknya efek linder di dalam impor komoditas intra-industri manufaktur indonesia dari tujuh negara asean plus three dan analisis faktor-faktor lain yang mempengaruhi impor komoditas intra-industri manufaktur indonesia dari tujuh negara asean plus three (malaysia, singapura, thailand, filipina, cina, jepang, dan korea selatan) selama periode 1993-2010. faktor-faktor lain yang dimaksud dalam studi ini yaitu gdp riil dan nilai tukar riil. tujuan dari studi ini adalah untuk; (1) menganalisis efek linder: apakah terdapat efek linder di dalam impor intra-industri manufaktur indonesia dari tujuh negara asean plus three? dan (2) menganalisis pengaruh nilai tukar riil dan gdp riil terhadap impor komoditas intra-industri manufaktur indonesia dari tujuh negara asean plus three. metode penelitian jenis dan sumber data jenis data yang digunakan adalah data. data nilai impor bersumber dari united nations commodity trade statistic data (un comtrade) sedangkan data gdp riil, pendapatan per kapita riil dan gdp deflator bersumber dari economic research service of united state department of agriculture dengan tahun dasar 2005. data nilai tukar (exchange rate) diperoleh dari situs: http://www.gocurrency.com/v2/historic exchange-rates.php objek studi yang diamati adalah tentang impor komoditas intra-industri manufaktur sumber: uncomtrade, 2012 gambar 2. total nilai impor komoditas sektor intra-industri manufaktur indonesia ke tujuh negara asean plus three periode 1993-2010 pengujian hipotesis linder ... (tito satrio, ahmad jamli) 167 indonesia dari tujuh negara asean plus three yang meliputi negara malaysia, singapura, thailand, filipina, cina, jepang, dan korsel periode tahun 1993-2010. lima negara asean lain, kamboja, vietnam, laos, myanmar, dan brunei darussalam tidak diikutsertakan dalam studi ini karena data standard international trade classification (sitc) dari kelima negara tersebut tidak tersedia sehingga harus ditiadakan dalam studi ini. analisis data alat analisis yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah regresi model balance data panel. verbeek (2000) mengemukakan bahwa keuntungan regresi dengan menggunakan data panel dibandingkan dengan data time series atau data cross section adalah kemampuan regresi data panel dalam mengidentifikasi parameter-parameter regresi secara pasti dengan tanpa membutuhkan asumsi restriksi atau kendala. selain itu, penggunaan data panel akan dapat mengatasi masalah yang timbul ketika ada masalah penghilangan variabel (ommitted-variable). estimasi data panel tergantung pada asumsi-asumsi pada intersep, koefisien slope dan error term. dalam hal ini, ada beberapa kemungkinan, yang terkait dengan asumsiasumsi tersebut: 1. intersep dan koefisien slope konstan setiap waktu dan unit dan error menampung perbedaan tiap waktu dan unit. 2. koefisien slope konstan tetapi intersep bervariasi tiap unit. 3. koefisien slope konstan tetapi intersep bervariasi tiap unit dan waktu. 4. semua koefisien (intersep dan slope) bervariasi tiap unit. 5. semua slope bervariasi tiap unit dan waktu. regresi data panel dengan pendekatan fixed effect sebagai alat uji hipotesis linder digunakan untuk alat analisis yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah regresi model balance data panel. verbeek (2000) mengemukakan bahwa keuntungan regresi dengan menggunakan data panel dibandingkan dengan data time series atau data cross section adalah kemampuan regresi data panel dalam mengidentifikasi parameter-parameter regresi secara pasti dengan tanpa membutuhkan asumsi restriksi atau kendala. selain itu, penggunaan data panel akan dapat mengatasi masalah yang timbul ketika ada masalah penghilangan variabel (ommitted-variable). estimasi data panel tergantung pada asumsi-asumsi pada intersep, koefisien slope dan error term. dalam hal ini, ada beberapa kemungkinan, yang terkait dengan asumsiasumsi tersebut: intersep dan koefisien slope konstan setiap waktu dan unit dan error menampung perbedaan tiap waktu dan unit. 2) koefisien slope konstan tetapi intersep bervariasi tiap unit. 3) koefisien slope konstan tetapi intersep bervariasi tiap unit dan waktu. 4) semua koefisien (intersep dan slope) bervariasi tiap unit. 5) semua slope bervariasi tiap unit dan waktu. regresi data mengukur intensitas perdagangan berdasarkan variabel berikut ini: ukuran dari ukuran ekonomi mitra dagang, ukuran dari perbedaan pendapatan per kapita riil, nilai tukar riil, dan relevant time-invariant factors misal jarak (mcpherson, dkk, 2001). model ekonometrika yang dihasilkan adalah sebagai berikut: ∗ ∗ ∗ 1) tipe fungsi regresi log-linier digunakan di dalam model tersebut sebagai transformasi karena berdasarkan hasil pemilihan model fungsi regresi menggunakan metode uji mackinnon, white, dan davidson diperoleh hasil bahwa hubungan variabel dependen dengan masingmasing variabel independen bersifat non-linier. world bank (2010) mengkategorikan indonesia sebagai negara berkembang. berdasarkan kategori tersebut, pemilihan impor sebagai variabel dependen dibandingkan dengan ekspor pada studi ini berdasarkan pada gagasan bahwa secara relatif sebagian besar proporsi ekspor dari negara-negara berkembang terdiri atas produk-produk primer-tipe barang yang linder yakini bahwa teorinya tersebut tidak dapat diterapkan. impor ke negara-negara berjurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 2, oktober 2013: 163-173 168 kembang, di lain sisi terdiri atas barang-barang manufaktur, oleh karena itu pengukuran yang tepat digunakan di dalam menguji validitas teori linder adalah variabel impor (mcpherson, dkk., 2001). log(imporit) adalah log nilai impor ke indonesia dari mitra dagang “i” pada tahun “t”. variabel ini untuk mengukur besarnya efek linder pada impor yang dilakukan oleh indonesia. log(linderit) adalah variabel yang merepresentasikan efek linder. variabel ini adalah log nilai absolut perbedaan pendapatan per kapita riil antara negara indonesia dan mitra dagang “i” pada tahun “t”. hasil estimasi dengan nilai koefisien negatif dan secara statistik signifikan pada efek perbedaan dalam pendapatan per kapita akan memberikan bukti yang mendukung hipotesis linder dan juga akan mengimplikasikan bahwa impor indonesia secara signifikan lebih intensif dengan tujuh negara asean plus three yang memiliki tingkat pendapatan per kapita yang relatif sama. log(exchangeit) adalah log nilai tukar. dalam rangka untuk mengontrol perubahan harga relatif di antara mitra dagang, di dalam model ini digunakan pula variabel tingkat nilai tukar riil sebagai variabel independen. nilai tukar riil dibangun dengan persamaan matematis sebagai berikut: ∗ 2) di mana eit adalah nilai tukar rata-rata tahunan dari mitra dagang potensial “i” pada tahun “t”, yang diukur dengan unit rupiah per unit mata uang mitra dagang potensial “i”. pit adalah gdp deflator pada negara mitra dagang potensial “i” pada tahun “t” dan pgt adalah gdp deflator indonesia pada tahun “t”. peningkatan nilai log(exchangeit) merepresentasikan suatu keadaan dimana melemahnya nilai rupiah terhadap nilai mata uang mitra dagang akan menyebabkan penurunan pada volume impor. oleh karena itu, koefisien: log(exchangeit) diharapkan bernilai negatif. log(gdpit) adalah variabel log nilai output (gdp riil) yang digunakan untuk mengontrol ukuran tingkat perekonomian masing-masing mitra dagang. variabel independen gdpit merupakan ukuran dari tingkat gdp riil mitra dagang indonesia “i” pada tahun “t”. koefisien log(gdpit) diharapkan bernilai positif karena peningkatan output mitra dagang “i” akan meningkatkan volume impor dari mitra dagang “i” ke indonesia. εit adalah error term atau variabel pengganggu. panel unit root test, secara prinsip penggunaan data panel unit root test adalah dimaksudkan untuk meningkatkan power of the test dengan meningkatkan jumlah sample. peningkatan jumlah sample yang besar dapat dilakukan dengan meningkatkan jumlah cross-sectional data maupun jumlah time-series data. uji statistik yang digunakan untuk menguji unit root antara lain (baltagi, 2005): (1) levin, lin and chu test; (2) im, pesaran and shin test; (3) breitung’s test; (4) combining p-value tests; dan (5) residualbased lm test. studi ini menggunakan levin, lin and chu test, im, pesaran and shin test, adf test, dan pp test. panel cointegration test. uji kointegrasi panel digunakan untuk menguji ada tidaknya hubungan jangka panjang antara variabel dependen dengan variabel independen yang diteliti. model kointegrasi panel ditujukan untuk menguji hubungan ekonomi jangka panjang yang biasanya ditemukan pada data makroekonomi dan data finansial. uji statistik yang digunakan untuk menguji kointegrasi panel dalam studi ini yaitu uji kointegrasi pedroni. uji pedroni mengestimasi residual yang dimiliki oleh model menggunakan tujuh statistik uji kointegrasi panel yang berbeda. pedroni membagi ketujuh statistik uji kointegrasi panel ini ke dalam dua kelompok yang diberi istilah withindimension dan between-dimension. hipotesis uji pedroni yaitu: h0: ρi = 1 untuk semua i h1: ρi< 1 untuk semua i (within-dimension panel statistic test) h1: (ρi = ρ) < 1 untuk semua i (between-dimension panel statistic test) hasil uji yang dihasilkan kemudian disesuaikan dengan hipotesis diatas. jika hasilnya menolak h0, maka terdapat hubungan jangka panjang antara variabel yang diuji karena h0 dalam uji pedroni adalah tidak terdapat kointegrasi. hausman test adalah pengujian statistik pengujian hipotesis linder ... (tito satrio, ahmad jamli) 169 sebagai dasar pertimbangan di dalam memilih apakah menggunakan pendekatan fixed effect atau random effect. hausman test dilakukan dengan hipotesis sebagai berikut: h0 ditolak maka pendekatan yang tepat adalah fixed effect apabila hauman test lebih besar dari nilai kritis (p-value < alpha) h0 diterima maka pendekatan yang tepat adalah random effect apabila hauman test lebih kecil dari nilai kritis (p-value > alpha) pendekatan fixed effect. pendekatan dengan memasukkan variabel dummy ini dikenal dengan nama model fixed effect atau least square dummy variable (gujarati, 2004). pendekatan fixed effet dapat dituliskan di dalam persamaan sebagai berikut: ∑ 3) keterangan: yit adalah variabel dependen di waktu t untuk unit cross section i ; αi adalah intersep yang berubah-ubah antar cross section unit; adalah variabel independen j di waktu t untuk unit cross section i; βj adalah parameter untuk variabel ke j; εit adalah error term di waktu t untuk unit cross section i pendekatan random effect. model random effect sering juga disebut model komponen error (error component model). bentuk model efek acak ini dijelaskan pada persamaan berikut ini: 4) dalam hal ini, slope tidak lagi nonstokastik, tetapi bersifat random. di mana: ∗ hasil dan pembahasan panel unit root test, dari uji levin, lin and chu, uji im, pesaran and shin, uji adf, dan uji pp diperoleh hasil bahwa data impor, data linder, data nilai tukar riil, dan data gdp riil tidak stasioner pada tingkat level (p-val > alpha), akan tetapi stasioner pada tingkat 1st difference (p-val < alpha). ketika data tiap variabel tersebut dibentuk persamaan diperoleh hasil bahwa nilai residual sudah stasioner pada tingkat level. secara umum bisa dikatakan bahwa data-data tersebut terkointegrasi karena tiap data masing-masing variabel stasioner pada tingkat diferensi yang sama dan ketika data diolah diperoleh nilai residual yang sudah stasioner pada tingkat level. berdasarkan penjelasan tersebut dapat ditarik kesimpulan bahwa panel cointegration test dapat dilakukan. panel cointegration test, hasil uji kointegrasi panel menggunakan pedroni test menunjukkan bahwa hipotesis nol ditolak. kointegrasi menggunakan pedroni test dapat ditarik kesimpulan bahwa terdapat hubungan jangka panjang antara impor dengan perbedaan pendapatan per kapita riil, nilai tukar riil, dan gdp riil. dengan demikian estimasi yang digunakan pada studi ini adalah fungsi impor dalam jangka panjang. hausman test. hasil uji hausman menunjukkan bahwa p-value lebih kecil dari alpha (0,0000 < 0,05), sehingga h0 ditolak dan h1 diterima. sehingga pendekatan yang dipakai adalah pendekatan efek tetap (fixed effect approach). tabel 2. hasil estimasi fungsi impor dengan fixed effect approach dep. var. impor std. error t-statistic prob linder variable 0,208705 0,048994 4,259854 0,0000 exchange -0,904636 0,151031 -5,989734 0,0000 gdp 1,981743 0,092725 21,37233 0,0000 constant 12,87741 1,104951 11,65429 0,0000 r² 0,954777 0,951268 272,1168 0,000000 adj. r² f-statistic prob(f-statistic) jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 2, oktober 2013: 163-173 170 hasil estimasi menunjukan bahwa variabel linder, variabel gdp riil dan nilai tukar riil secara statistik signifikan mempengaruhi variabel impor pada alpha 1% (prob. value < 0,01). akan tetapi, nilai koefisien variabel linder tersebut bernilai positif sehingga bertentangan dengan hipotesis linder. dilihat dari nilai probabilitas f-statistik sebesar 0,000000 yang lebih kecil dari alpha 1% maka dapat ditarik kesimpulan bahwa secara serempak variabel-variabel independen di dalam model (gdp riil, nilai tukar riil, dan variabel linder) secara statistik signifikan mempengaruhi variabel dependen (impor). nilai adjusted r² sebesar 0,951268 mengimplikasikan bahwa 95,1268% variasi perubahan impor dapat dijelaskan oleh variabel gdp riil, variabel nilai tukar riil, dan variabel linder dari model ekonometrika yang digunakan dalam studi ini. intrepretasi hasil estimasi fungsi impor dari masing-masing variabel menunjukkan bahwa ukuran atau tingkat perekonomian mitra dagang indonesia memiliki efek positif yang signifikan secara statistik. koefisien gdp sebesar 1,981743 memiliki arti bahwa ketika gdp mitra dagang indonesia meningkat sebesar 10% maka impor indonesia dari mitra dagang akan meningkat sebesar 19,81743%. tanda negatif koefisien nilai tukar pada impor indonesia sesuai dengan harapan kita pada spesifikasi model studi yang telah kita rumuskan sebelumnya, karena depresiasi mata uang rupiah terhadap mata uang mitra dagang akan menurunkan tingkat impor indonesia dari mitra dagang. dengan demikian, nilai koefisien nilai tukar sebesar -0,904636 dapat diinterpretasikan bahwa ketika mata uang rupiah mengalami depresiasi sebesar 10% maka impor indonesia dari mitra dagang mengalami penurunan sebesar 9,04636%. hasil estimasi tabel 2 menunjukkan bahwa variabel linder secara statistik signifikan mempengaruhi impor indonesia dari mitra dagang. namun, koefisien dari variabel linder bernilai positif sehingga bertentangan dengan nilai koefisien yang mendukung hipotesis linder yang menyatakan bahwa koefisien variabel linder harus bernilai negatif. nilai koefisien variabel linder sebesar 0,208705 dapat diintrepretasikan bahwa ketika perbedaan pendapatan per kapita antara indonesia dengan mitra dagang meningkat sebesar 10% maka impor indonesia dari mitra dagang akan mengalami peningkatan sebesar 2,08705%. hasil studi ini sama dengan hasil studi yang dilakukan oleh linnemann dan van beers (1988) di dalam studi mereka dengan sampel 13 negara maju dan 34 negara berkembang menggunakan data tahun 1980 yang menyimpulkan bahwa tingkat yang relatif sama dari pendapatan per kapita tidak terkait dengan perdagangan pada sektor manufaktur. mereka menemukan fakta bahwa intensitas perdagangan diantara negara berkembang cenderung meningkat ketika pendapatan per kapita mitra dagang mereka meningkat. sebaliknya, intensitas perdagangan diantara negara maju mendukung hipotesis linder. selanjutnya hoftyzer (1975) di dalam studinya yang menguji hipotesis linder menggunakan rank order corelations antara kesamaan pendapatan per kapita dengan intensitas ekspor ke 19 negara pada tahun 1955 dan ke 70 negara pada tahun 1970 juga memberikan hasil yang sama pada studi ini. ia memperoleh nilai koefisien variabel linder bernilai positif yang bertentangan dengan hipotesis linder. studi oleh dakal, dkk. (2009) juga memberikan hasil yang sama di dalam studi mereka yang menguji hipotesis linder dengan sampel 5 negara asia timur (indonesia, malaysia, filipina, korea selatan, dan thailand) dan juga turut menyertakan 7 negara mitra dagang utama mereka (jepang, singapura, hong kong, china, australia, inggris, dan amerika serikat). mereka menemukan fakta bahwa intensitas perdagangan 5 negara asia timur tersebut lebih intensif dilakukan dengan mitra dagang yang memiliki tingkat pendapatan per kapita relatif lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan mitra dagang yang memiliki tingkat pendapatan per kapita yang relatif sama. terdapat tiga alasan utama yang menyebabkan hipotesis linder mudah untuk diserang oleh kritikan-kritikan (kennedy dan mchugh, 1983): (1) meskipun hipotesis linder menggunakan istilah barang-barang manufaktur, pada kenyataannya ia menggunakan total perdagangan di dalam menguji hipotesisnya, (2) pengaruh jarak di dalam biaya transportasi dan perdagangan diabaikan dan (3) hubungan politik tradisional telah diabaikan. walaupun pengujian hipotesis linder ... (tito satrio, ahmad jamli) 171 hubungan politik tidak diragukan lagi dipengaruhi oleh pertimbangan ekonomi, hubungan politik juga akan berdampak pada hubungan perdagangan. perdagangan akan lebih intensif dilakukan oleh suatu negara dengan negaranegara yang merupakan aliansi mereka dibandingkan dengan negara-negara yang bukan merupakan aliansi mereka. meskipun demikian patut disayangkan bahwa hipotesis linder mengabaikan faktor hubungan politik meskipun merupakan hal yang sulit untuk mengukur faktor hubungan politik tersebut. data untuk negara-negara di dalam studi ini mengindikasikan bahwa perdagangan internasional sangat penting bagi indonesia. koefisien variabel linder bernilai positif dapat diintrepretasikan bahwa indonesia lebih terlibat aliansi politik pada perjanjian-perjanjian besar dalam hal perdagangan barang-barang manufaktur yang sebagian besar dengan negaranegara yang memiliki tingkat pendapatan per kapita relatif tinggi (terutama dengan jepang, singapura, dan korea selatan) dibandingkan dengan negara-negara yang memiliki tingkat pendapatan per kapita relatif sama. perjanjianperjanjian besar tersebut dalam beberapa tahun terakhir misal antara lain: perjanjian antara indonesia-singapura dalam peningkatan dan perlindungan penanaman modal (p4m/iga) tahun 2005 dan framework agreement on economic cooperation in the island of batam, bintan, and karimun (sez’s) tahun 2006, serta japanindonesia economic partnership agreement (jiepa) tahun 2005. fenomena penolakan hipotesis linder untuk kasus impor intra-industri manufaktur indonesia dari tujuh negara asean plus three ini juga ditemui pada studi greytak dan mchugh (1977) dan kennedy dan mchugh (1980) yang meneliti pola perdagangan amerika serikat yang sangat ditentukan oleh hubungan politik dan biaya transportasi (jarak). sebagai contoh, intensitas perdagangan antara amerika serikat dengan taiwan semakin meningkat karena aliansi politik mereka di dalam hubungan perdagangan. pada studi selanjutnya kennedy dan mchugh (1983) memperhitungkan time-invariant factors ke dalam model studinya dan tetap memperoleh kesimpulan yang menolak hipotesis linder. mereka menjelaskan bahwa pola perdagangan amerika serikat lebih mampu dijelaskan oleh pertimbangan supply-side, yaitu teori heckhsher-ohlin. mereka berargumen bahwa pada penjelasan yang lebih luas, perbedaan intensitas kapital direfleksikan oleh perbedaan pendapatan per kapita. negara dengan kepemilikan kapital yang relatif lebih sedikit (pendapatan per kapita yang lebih rendah) akan lebih intensif berdagang dengan negara yang memiliki kapital relatif lebih banyak (pendapatan per kapita yang lebih tinggi). kesimpulan yang diperoleh adalah bahwa antara kapital dan pendapatan per kapita memiliki hubungan yang positif. berdasarkan teori h-o dan penjelasan kennedy dan mchugh (1983) tersebut di atas, secara relatif indonesia merupakan negara labor abundant yang akan lebih intensif berdagang dengan negara-negara capital abundant. perbedaan intensitas kapital antara indonesia dengan mitra dagang direfleksikan oleh perbedaan pendapatan per kapita. hasil studi ini mengimplikasikan bahwa permintaan domestik atau kesamaan struktur permintaan merupakan faktor yang tidak signifikan di dalam menjelaskan pola perdagangan (impor) intra-industri manufaktur indonesia dengan tujuh negara asean plus three. namun, aliansi politik dalam hubungan perdagangan dan pertimbangan supply-side adalah alasan yang dapat menjelaskan hipotesis linder ditolak di dalam studi ini. simpulan berdasarkan pembahasan di atas dapat ditarik kesimpulan bahwa tidak ditemukan efek linder pada impor intra-industri manufaktur indonesia dari tujuh negara asean plus three. dengan demikian studi ini tidak mendukung hipotesis linder yang menyatakan bahwa pengaruh yang paling signifikan dalam menentukan struktur permintaan adalah perbedaan pendapatan rata-rata atau perbedaan pendapatan per kapita. hasil estimasi fungsi impor pada perdagangan komoditas intra-industri manufaktur indonesia dari tujuh negara asean plus three tidak mendukung hipotesis linder. hasil estimasi fungsi impor pada variabel linder jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 2, oktober 2013: 163-173 172 mengimplikasikan bahwa semakin besar perbedaan pendapatan per kapita antara indonesia dengan mitra dagang indonesia (tujuh negara asean plus three) maka akan semakin meningkatkan volume impor indonesia dari mitra dagang. hubungan politik dan pertimbangan supply-side merupakan alasan yang dapat menjelaskan hipotesis linder ditolak pada studi ini. faktor-faktor lain yang mempengaruhi impor intra-industri manufaktur indonesia dari tujuh negara asean plus three pada studi ini adalah gdp riil dan nilai tukar riil yang signifikan secara statistik. argumen ini didukung dengan hasil estimasi menggunakan model data panel di dalam menganalisis faktorfaktor tersebut. peran asean plus three sangat penting bagi indonesia di dalam melakukan perdagangan internasional. hal ini dapat dilihat dari volume perdagangan sektor intra-industri manufaktur antara indonesia dengan tujuh negara asean plus three yang semakin meningkat. saran-saran yang hendak peneliti ajukan berdasarkan studi ini antara lain: (1) peneliti selanjutnya dapat menggunakan model yang berbeda dan atau sampel yang berbeda untuk melakukan studi mengenai analisis empiris hipotesis linder. model lain yang dapat digunakan untuk menguji hipotesis linder antara lain kendall rank correlation, pearson rank correlation, spearman rank correlation, model gravitasi, serta model cross section. (2) nilai tukar sangat mempengaruhi impor yang dilakukan oleh indonesia sehingga diperlukan upaya pemerintah di dalam menjaga kestabilan nilai tukar dalam negeri dengan meningkatkan kestabilan ekonomi, kestabilan politik, dan keamanan dalam negeri. (3) diperlukannya kebijakan yang mendukung sektor manufaktur domestik karena dengan kebijakan yang mendukung tersebut dapat menstimulus sektor manufaktur untuk mampu memproduksi komoditas yang memadai dalam kualitas dan kuantitas. kebijakan yang mendukung sektor manufaktur yaitu membenahi birokrasi yang berbelit-belit, menghilangkan sistem “pungutan liar”, serta dukungan finansial untuk sektor manufaktur. daftar pustaka anggraita, risty. (2009). analisis perdagangan intra-industri manufaktur indonesia dengan tujuh negara asean+3 periode 1992-2008. skripsi. yogyakarta: feb ugm. tidak dipublikasikan. arifin, sjamsul, dian erdiana rae, dan charles p.r. joseph. (2007). kerjasama perdagangan internasional. jakarta: elex media komputindo. baltagi, b. h. (1998). econometrics. new york: springer. dakal, dharmendra, gyan pradhan, dan kamal upadhyaya. (2009). another empirical look at the theory of overlapping demands. working paper, no. 0901. firdaus, ahmad heri. (2011). kinerja perdagangan dan dampak free trade area (fta) asean plus three terhadap .indonesia. thesis. bogor: sekolah pasca sarjana institut pertanian bogor. hoftyzer, john. (1975). empirical verifications of linder’s trade thesis. southern economic journal, vol. 41(4): 694-698. kementerian perdagangan republik indonesia. (2010). tinjauan terkini perdagangan indonesia. jakarta: kementerian perdagangan republik indonesia. kennedy, t. e., dan r. mchugh. (1980). an intertemporal test and rejection of the linder hypothesis. southern economic journal, vol. 46, pp. 898-903. linnemann, h. and c. van beers. (1988). measures of export-import similarity and the linder hypothesis once again. weltwirtschaftliches-archiv, 24 (3), 445-457. mcpherson m. a., m. r. redfearn., dan m. a. tieslau. (2001). international trade and developing countries: an empirical investigation of the linder hypotesis. international economic journal, 33, pp. 649657. rauh, alison. (2009). empirical analysis of the linder hypothesis: the case of germany’s trade within europe. economic journal of davidson college. pengujian hipotesis linder ... (tito satrio, ahmad jamli) 173 verbeek, marno. (2000). modern econometrics. new jersey: mcgraw hill. widihastuti, retno. (2006). pola determinan perdagangan intra-industri indonesia dengan 12 negara asia pasifik: hipotesis country dan industry specific. tesis. yogyakarta: universitas gadjah mada. tidak dipublikasikan. world bank, org. (2010). indonesia data. http://data.worldbank.org/country/indonesia/ diakses pada 22 april 2012. microsoft word 05-daryono jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 1, april 2014, hlm.48-54 efek peningkatan upah minimum terhadap tingkat pengangguran jihad lukis panjawa1, daryono soebagiyo2 1,2 fakultas ekonomi dan bisnis, universitas muhammadiyah surakarta kampus a yani tromolpos 1 pabelan, kartasura, surakarta 57102, indonesia phone: +62 271 717417, e-mail korespondensi: daryono51@ymail.com naskah diterima: maret 2013; disetujui: maret 2014 abstract: this research aims to analyze the determinants of unemployment rate in surakarta residency. the analytical method used in this study is panel data regression. data panel is a combination of cross section that includes seven regencies in surakarta and time series during 15 years from 1999-2013. the results showed that fixed effects model (fem) is the most appropriate. based on simultaneous test, minimum wage, gross domestic product (gdp), inflation, and the number of population simultaneously have an impact on the unemployment rate. based on the effect validity test, the minimum wage and population has significant positive effect on the unemployment rate, gross domestic product (gdp) has significant negative effect on the unemployment rate, while inflation does not have significant effect on the unemployment rate. keywords: domestic regional gross product; inflation; minimum wage; population; unemployment rate jel classification: e24 abstrak: studi ini bertujuan menganalisis faktor-faktor penentu tingkat pengangguran sekaresidenan surakarta. teknik analisis yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah regresi data panel. data panel merupakan gabungan data cross section yang meliputi tujuh kabupaten/kota di karesidenan surakarta dan time series selama 15 tahun dari tahun 1999-2013. hasil studi menunjukkan bahwa fixed effect model (fem) merupakan model regresi data panel yang paling tepat. berdasarkan uji simultan, upah minimum, produk domestik regional bruto (pdrb), inflasi, jumlah penduduk secara serempak memiliki pengaruh terhadap tingkat pengangguran. berdasarkan uji validitas, upah minimum dan jumlah penduduk memiliki pengaruh positif signifikan terhadap tingkat pengangguran, produk domestik regional bruto (pdrb) berpengaruh negatif signifikan terhadap tingkat pengangguran, sedangkan inflasi tidak memiliki pengaruh signifikan terhadap tingkat pengangguran. kata kunci: produk domestik regional bruto; inflasi; upah minimum; jumlah penduduk; tingkat pengangguran klasifikasi jel: e24 pendahuluan pembangunan ekonomi daerah merupakan proses pengelolaan sumber daya yang tersedia oleh pemerintah daerah dan masyarakat, serta kemitraan antara sektor swasta dan pemerintah daerah dalam penciptaan lapangan kerja baru dan merangsang perkembangan ekonomi suatu wilayah. peningkatan jumlah lapangan kerja dan jenis peluang kerja bagi masyarakat daerah merupakan tujuan utama dalam setiap pembangunan ekonomi. sedangkan lapangan pekerjaan yang lebih kecil dibanding angkatan kerja akan menyebabkan pengangguran. pengangguran yang tinggi termasuk dalam masalah ekonomi dan sosial. pengangguran akan menjadi persoalan ekonomi karena menyianyiakan sumefek peningkatan upah minimum ... (jihad lukis panjawa, daryono soebagiyo) 49 berdaya yang berharga dan angka pengangguran yang tinggi berarti menyianyiakan produksi barang dan jasa yang sebenarnya mampu diproduksi oleh pengangguran (samuelson dan nordhaus, 2004). pada sisi lain, inflasi yang makin meningkat disertai dengan penurunan laju pertumbuhan ekonomi menyebabkan proporsi penduduk yang belum dewasa menjadi tambah tinggi dengan jumlah anggota keluarga bertambah lebih besar menyebabkan pertambahan penduduk yang tidak seimbang. laju pertumbuhan ekonomi yang meningkat maka produksi barang dan jasa akan meningkat pula sehingga meningkatkan standar hidup. laju pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tinggi biasanya akan memperluas kesempatan kerja dan menurunkan tingkat pengangguran. sedangkan tingkat upah merupakan salah satu faktor yang mempengaruhi tingkat pengangguran. upah merupakan kompensasi yang diterima oleh satu unit kerja berupa jumlah uang yang dibayarkan. upah tenaga kerja sangat penting untuk kedua belah pihak. bagi pihak produsen, upah merupakan biaya produksi yang harus ditekan seefisien mungkin. bagi pihak pekerja, upah merupakan sumber penghasilan bagi dirinya, keluarganya dan menjadi sumber pembelanjaan masyarakat. tinggi rendahnya upah merupakan faktor penting yang menentukan taraf hidup masyarakat. tingkat pengangguran yang cukup tinggi dibandingkan dengan jawa tengah dan indonesia pada tahun 2009 terjadi di kabupaten/ kota sukoharjo, karanganyar dan surakarta, namun pada tahun 2010 tingkat pengangguran tinggi hanya terjadi di sukoharjo dan surakarta. dibandingkan dengan indonesia, kabupaten/ kota di karesidenan surakarta lebih rendah, namun jika dibandingkan dengan jawa tengah, surakarta saja yang tingkat penganggurannya lebih tinggi pada tahun 2011. tingkat pengangguran indonesia pada tahun 2012 lebih tinggi dibandingkan jawa tengah dan kabupaten/kota di karesidenan surakarta, namun jika dibandingkan dengan jawa tengah, ada beberapa kabupaten/kota di karesidenan surakarta yang tingkat penganggurannya lebih tinggi, antara lain: sukoharjo, karanganyar, sragen dan surakarta. tingkat pengangguran di objek studi berfluktuasi dari 2009-2012. empat kabupaten (sukoharjo, wonogiri, karanganyar, dan sragen) dari tujuh kabupaten/kota se-eks karesidenan surakarta mengalami peningkatan pada tahun 2012, sedangkan boyolali, klaten dan surakarta mengalami penurunan. tabel 1. tingkat pengangguran di indonesia, jawa tengah dan karesidenan surakarta tahun 2009-2012 (dalam persen) kota/kabupaten 2009 2010 2011 2012 indonesia 7,90 7,10 6,60 6,20 jawa tengah 7,33 6,21 5,93 5,63 boyolali 5,51 3,90 5,24 4,52 klaten 6,36 4,50 6,21 3,66 sukoharjo 8,28 7,40 5,48 5,98 wonogiri 5,03 4,70 3,41 3,60 karanganyar 8,26 6,62 5,51 5,79 sragen 5,78 4,09 5,69 6,00 surakarta 10,44 8,73 6,36 6,07 sumber: jawa tengah dalam angka 2009-2013 tabel 1 menunjukkan tingkat kabupaten sukoharjo pada tahun 2012 sebesar 5,98 persen, meningkat dari tahun 2011 dengan nilai 5,48 persen. pada tahun 2012 tingkat pengangguran kabupaten wonogiri sebesar 3,60 persen, padahal tahun 2011 hanya sebesar 3,41 persen. tingkat pengangguran di kabupaten karanganyar pada tahun 2012 sebesar 5,79 persen, mengalami peningkatan dari tahun sebelumnya sebesar 0,25 persen. peningkatan pengangguran juga terjadi di kabupaten sragen, pada tahun 2011 sebesar 5,69 persen dan pada tahun 2012 tingkat pengangguran sebesar 6 persen. berdasarkan uraian di atas, studi ini bertujuan untuk melihat pengaruh pdrb, inflasi, jumlah penduduk dan upah minimum terhadap tingkat pengangguran se-eks-karesidenan surakarta pada tahun 1999-2013, yaitu: (1) untuk menganalisis pengaruh pdrb terhadap tingkat pengangguran di eks-karesidenan surakarta pada tahun 1999-2013, (2) untuk menganalisis pengaruh inflasi terhadap tingkat pengangguran di eks-karesidenan surakarta pada tahun 1999-2013, (3) untuk menganalisis pengaruh upah minimum terhadap tingkat pengangguran di eks-karesidenan surakarta pada tahun 1999-2013. dan (4) untuk menganalisis pengaruh jumlah penduduk terhadap tingkat pengangguran di eks-karesidenan jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 1, april 2014: 48-54 50 surakarta pada tahun 1999-2013. studi yang dilakukan oleh amir (2007) tentang pengaruh inflasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi terhadap pengangguran di indonesia tahun 1980-2005, disimpulkan bahwa ada pengaruh negatif signifikan antara pertumbuhan ekonomi dengan tingkat pengangguran, sedangkan inflasi tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pengangguran. sementara, studi yang dilakukan oleh pitartono dan hayati (2012) yang menggunakan analisis kuantitatif dengan metode analisis statistik deskriptif dan analisis korelasi, disimpulkan bahwa variabel jumlah penduduk menunjukkan hubungan positif signifikan dengan tingkat pengangguran. variabel tingkat inflasi tidak berhubungan signifikan dengan tingkat pengangguran. variabel upah minimum kabupaten/kota menunjukkan hubungan positif dan signifikan dengan tingkat pengangguran. sementara, variabel laju pertumbuhan pdrb menunjukkan hubungan yang tidak signifikan dengan tingkat pengangguran. chow (2013) melakukan studi serupa di bangladesh pada tahun 2000-2011 menggunakan model persamaan regresi tunggal sederhana. variabel kontrol dalam studi tersebut adalah pertumbuhan gdp, kurs, dan tingkat inflasi sementara variabel dikontrol yaitu tingkat pengangguran. hasil regresi menunjukan tingkat inflasi berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap tingkat pengangguran, sedangkan pertumbuhan gdp dan kurs memiliki pengaruh negatif signifikan. sementara, studi yang dilakukan akbar dan achma (2013) menunjukkan pdrb berpengaruh negatif signifikan, sedangkan inflasi, upah, dan beban tanggungan penduduk berpengaruh positif signifikan. prasaja (2013) melakukan studi pengaruh investasi asing, jumlah penduduk dan inflasi terhadap pengangguran terdidik di jawa tengah periode 1980-2011 dengan regresi log linier ols. hasil studi menunjukkan investasi asing memiliki pengaruh negatif signifikan terhadap pengangguran terdidik. inflasi berpengaruh secara tidak signifikan, sedangkan jumlah penduduk memiliki pengaruh positif signifikan terhadap variabel dikontrol dalam studi. aurangzeb (2013) melakukan peneitian di india, cina dan pakistan tahun 1980-2009. alat analisis yang digunakan adalah regresi, kointegrasi dan kausalitas granger. pengangguran sebagai variabel dikontrol, sedangkan inflasi, gdp, nilai tukar dan pertumbuhan penduduk sebagai variabel kontrol. hasil regresi dalam studi menunjukkan bahwa semua variabel kontrol memiliki dampak positif yang signifikan terhadap tingkat pengangguran untuk pakistan. variabel gdp berpengaruh negatif terhadap pengangguran, sedang inflasi, nilai tukar dan pertumbuhan penduduk berpengaruh positif di india. variabel gdp dan inflasi berpengaruh negatif terhadap pengangguran, sedang pertumbuhan penduduk dan nilai tukar berpengaruh positif di china. hasil uji kointegrasi menunjukkan adanya hubungan jangka panjang antarvariabel untuk semua model. untuk hasil kausalitas granger di pakistan, tidak ada hubungan dua arah di antara salah satu variabel, namun kausalitas searah yaitu gdp mempengaruhi pengangguran dan pengangguran mempengaruhi nilai tukar. hasil kausalitas granger dua arah di india tidak terjadi, namun inflasi mempengaruhi pengangguran. hasil kausalitas granger di china membuktikan adanya hubungan dua arah antara nilai tukar dan pengangguran, dan hubungan yang searah antara pengangguran dengan inflasi, dan pertumbuhan penduduk dengan pengangguran. metode penelitian jenis data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder yang diperoleh badan pusat statistik dan bank indonesia. studi ini menggunakan gabungan data cross section di tujuh kabupaten/kota di karesidenan surakarta dan data runtut waktu selama 15 tahun yaitu dari tahun 1999-2013. gabungan data cross section dan runtut waktu disebut data panel yang memberi lebih banyak informasi dan variasi, sedikit kolinearitas antar variabel, lebih banyak derajat kebebasan dan efisien (gujarti, 2012). fungsi persamaan model adalah sebagai berikut: ue = f(pdrb, inf,umk, popl) 1) di mana: ue adalah variabel tingkat pengangguran; pdrb adalah variabel produk domestik regional bruto; inf adalah variabel inflasi; efek peningkatan upah minimum ... (jihad lukis panjawa, daryono soebagiyo) 51 umk adalah variabel upah minimum untuk popl adalah variabel jumlah penduduk. tingkat pengangguran adalah presentase angkatan kerja yang tidak memiliki pekerjaan. pertumbuhan ekonomi adalah perkembangan kegiatan dalam perekonomian yang menyebabkan barang dan jasa yang diproduksi meningkat demi kemakmuran masyarakat (todaro, 2011). salah satu pengukur pertumbuhan ekonomi adalah produk domestik regional bruto (pdrb) atas dasar harga berlaku yang dinyatakan dalam juta rupiah. inflasi adalah perubahan tingkat harga secara keseluruhan yang dinyatakan dalam satuan persen upah minimum berupa rata–rata upah minimum kabupaten/ kota di karesidenan tahun 1999-2013 yang dinyatakan dalam rupiah. sementara, penduduk adalah mereka yang sudah menetap di suatu wilayah paling sedikit 6 bulan atau kurang dari 6 bulan tetapi bermaksud untuk menetap yang dinyatakan dalam jiwa. model regresi data panel secara umum bisa dirumuskan sebagai berikut1: ueit = α + β1pdrbit + β2 infit + β3 umkit + β4 poplit + uit. 2) di mana: ue adalah variabel tingkat pengangguran untuk wilayah ke-i dan waktu ke-t; pdrb adalah produk domestik regional bruto untuk wilayah ke-i dan waktu ke-t; inf adalah variable inflasi untuk wilayah ke-i dan waktu ke-t; umk adalah variabel upah minimum untuk wilayah ke-i dan waktu ke-t; popl adalah variabel jumlah penduduk untuk wilayah ke-i dan waktu ke-t; i adalah kota/ kabupaten; t adalah waktu; u adalah variabel faktor gangguan. menurut juanda (2012), ada tiga metode 1 modifikasi dari jurnal aurangzeb and khola asif. “factors effecting unemployment: a cross country analysis”. international journal of academic research in business and social sciences, 3:1 (january2013). 219230 dan pitartono, ronny dan banatul hayati. “analisis tingkat pengangguran di jawa tengah tahun 1997-2010”. diponegoro journal of economics, 1:1 (2012).1-10. model panel lihat gujarati, damodar n dan dawn c. porter.dasar-dasar ekonometrika. edisi 2 (jakarta: salemba empat. 2012). 235-269 data panel yang dapat digunakan, yaitu metode pooled ordinary least square (pls), fixed effect model (fem) dan random effect model (rem). pemilihan model data panel yang taepat dapat digunakan dengan uji chow dan uji hausman. uji chow digunakan untuk memilih antara model pls dan fem. uji hausman memilih antara model fem dan rem. setelah penentuan model yang tepat, langkah selanjutnya perlu dilakukan uji-uji eksistensi model, uji determinan dan uji validitas pengaruh. tabel 2. hasil regresi variabel koefisien model pls fem rem c 9,531135 -10,29146 8,738802 pdrb 2,18e-07 -8,17e-07 -2,04e-07 inf -0,026588 -0,004207 -0,022018 umk -1,01e-06 1,16e-05 4,44e-06 popl -5,21e-06 1,76e-05 -4,54e-06 error term 277,1570 135,7684 217,5884 r2 0,310106 0,662048 0,205376 prob.fstatistik 0,000000 0,000000 0,000115 uji chow atau likelihood ratio digunakan untuk memilih model antara pooled ordinary least square dan fixed effect model. h0: model pls tepat dengan ha: model fem tepat. output eviews menunjukkan prob. f atau prob.chisquare signifikan (0,0000<0,05). kesimpulannya, h0 ditolak yang berarti model fem tepat. hasil pengolahan ditunjukkan pada tabel 3. tabel 3. uji chow effects test statistic d.f. prob. cross-section f 16,315194 (6,94) 0,0000 cross-section chi-square 74,931526 6 0,0000 uji hausman digunakan untuk memilih model regresi data panel yang paling baik antara fixed effect model dan random effect model. h0: model pls tepat dengan ha: model fem tepat. output e-views menunjukkan chisquare atau p-value (0,0000<0,05). kesimpulanjurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 1, april 2014: 48-54 52 nya, h0 ditolak yang berarti model fem tepat. hasil pengolahan ditunjukkan pada tabel 4. tabel 4. uji hausman test summary chi-sq. statistic chi-sq. d.f. prob. cross-section random 54,648473 4 0,0000 hasil uji chow dan uji hausman menunjukkan bahwa model fixed effect model (fem) adalah model yang paling tepat. pemilihan model fem juga didukung pernyataan jugde (gujarati, 2012) dari hasil beberapa observasi mengenai penentuan dalam menentukan model fixed effect atau random effect yang paling baik, yang menyatakan apabila jumlah times series (t) lebih besar daripada jumlah cross section (n), model fixed effect yang dipakai. oleh karena itu, dalam mengestimasi menggunakan model fem. hasil regresi ditunjukkan pada tabel 5 (lampiran). selain uji regresi di atas dilakukan juga pengujian cross section dummy variabel seperti pada tabel 6. tabel 6. cross section fixed dummy variable cross section effect boyolali -2,530407 klaten -3,415151 sukoharjo 2,629128 wonogiri -4,470521 karanganyar 0,757091 sragen -2,048128 surakarta 9,077989 pertumbuhan ekonomi yang diukur dengan pdrb nominal memiliki pengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap pengangguran di karesidenan surakarta tahun 1999-2013. artinya, kenaikan tingkat pengangguran disebabkan karena pertumbuhan ekonomi menurun. adanya fleksibilitas ini, suatu perekonomian mempunyai kebebasan yang tak terbatas dalam menentukan kombinasi antara modal dan tenaga kerja yang digunakan untuk menghasilkan tingkat output tertentu (arsyad, 2010). sementara itu, pengaruh inflasi tidak signifikan terhadap pengangguran di karesidenan surakarta tahun 1999-2013. hal ini sejalan dengan studi pitartono (2012) yang menunjukkan bahwa tingkat pengangguran tidak dipengaruhi oleh inflasi. terjadinya kenaikan harga barang dan jasa secara umum (inflasi) bukan karena naiknya permintaan barang dan jasa tetapi lebih disebabkan karena kenaikan harga bbm. amir (2007) menjelaskan hubungan negatif antara tingkat inflasi dan penangguran dalam kurva phillips. peningkatan inflasi akan menyebabkan terjadinya penurunan pengangguran. sementara kenaikan permintaan agregat merupakan cerminan dari inflasi yang menunjukkan hubungan antara inflasi dan pengangguran. ketika pemintaan agregat meningkat, maka akan sesuai dengan teori permintaan. upah minimum memiliki pengaruh positif signifikan terhadap tingkat pengangguran di karesidenan surakarta tahun 1999-2013. di mana kenaikan upah minimum akan menyebabkan peningkatan pengangguran di objek studi. penyebab terjadinya pengangguran akibat adanya kekakuan upah (wage rigidity) yaitu ketidakmampuan upah dalam melakukan penyesuaian sampai di titik ekuilibrium, di mana penawaran tenaga kerja sama dengan permintaan tenaga kerja. pengangguran yang disebabkan kekakuan upah akibat penyesuaian antara jumlah pekerja yang menginginkan pekerjaan dan jumlah pekerjaan yang tersedia. namun, meningkatnya tingkat upah membuat penawaran tenaga kerja bertambah, sehingga membuat permintaan tenaga kerja berkurang. akibatnya terjadi surplus tenaga kerja atau pengangguran. penyebab kekakuan upah antara lain: peraturan upah minimum, serikat pekerja dan efisiensi upah (mankiw, 2012). jumlah penduduk berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap tingkat pengangguran di karesidenan surakarta tahun 1999-2013. artinya, jumlah penduduk yang terus bertambah akan menyebabkan pengangguran terus meningkat. jumlah penduduk yang terus meningkat, menyebabkan banyak penduduk yang masuk dalam kategori angkatan kerja. berbeda halnya jika angkatan kerja yang meningkat akan menyebabkan kesempatan kerja juga meningkat. hal ini apabila tidak disertai dengan penciptaan lapangan kerja baru, maka akan banyak penduduk yang tidak memperoleh pekerjaan (pengangguran). efek peningkatan upah minimum ... (jihad lukis panjawa, daryono soebagiyo) 53 selain itu, ketiadaan sumber pendukung, lambatnya perkembangan lapangan kerja akan mengakibatkan tenaga buruh, pengangguran dan kekurangan lapangan kerja semakin serius. sementara dampak dari peningkatan penduduk yang cepat akan mengurangi pendapatan, tabungan dan investasi yang membuat pembentukan modal menjadi lambat dan kesempatan kerja semakin sedikit, akibatnya pekerjaan berkurang dan terjadi pengangguran (jhingan, 2000). simpulan hasil perhitungan dengan data panel untuk menjelaskan determinan pengangguran di karesidenan surakarta maka dapat diperoleh kesimpulan sebagai berikut: pertama, pengujian model menggunakan uji chow menunjukkan bahwa model fem lebih tepat digunakan daripada model pls. sementara pada uji hausman menunjukkan model fem lebih tepat digunakan dibandingkan dengan model rem. oleh karena itu, studi ini memutuskan menggunakan model fem karena model fem lebih tepat dari model pls dan rem; kedua, pdrb memiliki pengaruh negatif signifikan terhadap tingkat pengangguran, upah minimum dan jumlah penduduk berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap tingkat pengangguran, sedangkan inflasi tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap tingkat pengangguran di eks-karesidenan surakarta tahum 1999-2013. berdasarkan dari hasil studi di atas, maka diberikan saran pada pemerintah eks-karesidenan surakarta hendaknya tanggap dalam mengatasi pengangguran baik secara langsung maupun tidak langsung. secara langsung pemerintah menambah lapangan kerja baru, sedangkan cara tidak langsung pemerintah hendaknya memberikan pengembangan kewirausahan dan kegiatan pemberdayaan masyarakat. pemerintah hendaknya melakukan usahausaha untuk meningkatkan investasi. investasi yang dimaksud adalah investasi padat karya, bukan padat modal. daftar pustaka amir, a. (2007). pengaruh inflasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi terhadap pengangguran di indonesia. aurangzeb and khola, a. (2013). factors effecting unemployment: a cross country analysis. international journal of academic research in business and social sciences, 3 (1), hlm. 219-230. badan pusat statistik. (2013) jawa tengah dalam angka (1999-2014). semarang: badan pusat statistik jawa tengah. chow, mohammad shafiur rahman. (2013). determinants of unemployment in bangladesh: a case study. developing country studies vol. 4, no.3 gujarati, d. n dan dawn c. p. (2012). dasardasar ekonometrika. jakarta: salemba empat. http://amriamir.wordpress.com, diakses tanggal 20 agustus 2013) jhingan, m.l. (2007). ekonomi pembangunan dan perencanaan. jakarta: pt raja grafindo persada. juanda, b dan junaidi. (2012). ekonomi deret waktu. bogor: pt penerbit ipb press. mankiw, n. g. (2012). makroekonomi. jakarta: erlangga. mankiw, n. g. (2012). pengantar ekonomi mikro. jakarta: salemba empat pitartono, r dan banatul, h. (2012). analisis tingkat pengangguran di jawa tengah tahun 1997-2010. diponegoro journal of economics 1 (1), hlm.1-10. prasaja, mukti. (2013). pengaruh investasi asing, jumlah penduduk, dan inflasi terhadap pengangguran terdidik di jawa tengah periode tahun 1980-2011. economics development analysis journal. vol.2, no.3. samuelson a, p dan willam, d. n. (2003). ilmu mikro ekonomi. jakarta: pt. media global edukasi. samuelson a. p. (2004). ilmu makro ekonomi. jakarta: pt. media global edukasi. simanjuntak, p. j. (1985). pengantar ekonomi sumber daya manusia.jakarta: lpfe ui. soebagiyo d., dkk. (2013). analisis daya saing daerah dan implikasinya terhadap pemjurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 1, april 2014: 48-54 54 bangunan wilayah di jawa tengah. penelitian pupt-dikti tahap 1 2013. soebagiyo d., dkk. (2013). analisis daya saing daerah dan implikasinya terhadap pembangunan wilayah di jawa tengah. penelitian pupt-dikti tahap 2 2014. todaro, p. m. (2011). pembangunan ekonomi. jakarta: erlangga. lampiran tabel 5. regresi fixed effect model hasil regresi variabel prob.f stat r2 c pdrb inf umk popl koefisien -10,29146 -8,17e-07 -0,004207 1,16e-05 1,76e-05 0,000 0,6621 prob.t-stat 0,0559 0,0000 0,7660 0,0000 0,0061 microsoft word 08-didi jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 13, nomor 1, april 2012, hlm.83-95   penyusunan indikator ekonomi incremental capital output ratio 2011 didi nuryadin dan jamzani sodik fakultas ekonomi universitas pembangunan nasional “veteran” yogyakarta jalan swk 104 (lingkar utara) condongcatur, yogyakarta 55283 telepon +62-274-486733 e-mail: didinuryadin@gmail.com abstract: this paper aims to determine the amount of investment needed for economic growth in accordance with established, so as to know the performance and the efficiency of investment in order to boost economic growth and development in general. the methods used in this study was to calculate the value of icor with some methods that are based on several assumptions. the study shows that the development of an investment in sleman regency over the last five years continues to increase although the rate of growth is less encouraging, even in 2010 is only able to grow 2.10 percent. icor coefficient of sleman district in 2010 amounted to 8.69 higher than the average icor of diy and national icor. with economic growth forecast scenario, gdp will grow moderately in the range of 5 percent, then the value of icor next five years is predicted to be in the range of 7-9 percent of the investment needs of 2.49 to 2.82 trillion dollars per year. keywords: incremental capital output ratio, investment, economic growth, incremental capital value added ratio abstrak: tulisan ini bertujuan mengetahui besarnya investasi yang dibutuhkan agar pertumbuhan ekonomi sesuai dengan yang ditetapkan, sehingga dapat diketahui kinerja dan tingkat efisiensi investasi dalam upaya mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi maupun pembangunan pada umumnya. metode yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah menghitung besarnya icor dengan beberapa metode yang berdasarkan beberapa asumsi. hasil studi menunjukkan bahwa perkembangan nilai investasi di kabupaten sleman selama lima tahun terakhir terus mengalami peningkatan meski dengan laju pertumbuhan yang kurang menggembirakan, bahkan pada tahun 2010 hanya mampu tumbuh 2,10 persen. koefisien icor kabupaten sleman tahun 2010 sebesar 8,69 lebih tinggi dari rata-rata icor provinsi diy dan icor nasional. dengan skenario proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi, bahwa pdrb akan tumbuh moderat berada pada kisaran 5 persen maka nilai icor lima tahun ke depan diprediksi masih berada pada kisaran 7–9 persen dengan kebutuhan investasi 2,49 – 2,82 trilyun rupiah per tahun. kata kunci: incremental capital output ratio, investment, economic growth, incremental capital value added ratio pendahuluan iklim investasi yang baik akan mendorong terjadinya pertumbuhan ekonomi, yakni melalui investasi yang didukung oleh produktivitas yang tinggi. investasi akan memperkuat pertumbuhan ekonomi dengan mendatangkan lebih banyak input ke dalam proses produksi. oleh karenanya memperbaiki iklim investasi merupakan tugas yang penting bagi setiap pemerintah. dalam beberapa tahun terakhir, kondisi iklim investasi nasional dinilai masih memprihatinkan. beberapa survei menunjukkan bahwa posisi peringkat daya saing investasi indonesia masih berada pada pada kelompok peringkat bawah, hal ini menunjukkan seriusnya persoaljurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 13, nomor 1, april 2012: 83-95 84 an iklim investasi yang harus segera disikapi. perbaikan iklim investasi bukan hanya tanggung jawab pemerintah pusat, namun seluruh lapisan pemerintah dan masyarakat secara umum. sesuai kewenangan otonomi daerah maka pemerintah kabupaten lebih leluasa dalam penyelenggaraan beberapa urusan pemerintahan termasuk dalam menciptakan ikilm investasi yang kondusif. keberhasilan daerah untuk meningkatkan daya saing terhadap investasi salah satunya bergantung pada kemampuan daerah dalam merumuskan kebijakan yang berkaitan dengan investasi dan pertumbuhan dunia usaha, serta peningkatan kualitas pelayanan terhadap masyarakat. hal yang penting untuk diperhatikan dalam upaya menarik investor, selain makro ekonomi yang kondusif juga adanya pengembangan sumber daya manusia dan infrastruktur dalam arti luas. oleh karenanya hasil-hasil pembangunan perlu dievaluasi dan dianalisa untuk kemudian dijadikan masukan bagi perencanaan pembangunan berikutnya. salah satu indikator yang bisa digunakan untuk evaluasi dan perencanaan yang berkaitan dengan investasi adalah incremental capital output ratio (icor). kajian penyusunan indikator ekonomi daerah di kabupaten sleman tahun anggaran 2011 ini dimaksudkan untuk menghitung besaran icor di kabupaten sleman sebagai bahan pertimbangan dalam penentuan pencapaian target pertumbuhan ekonomi maupun capaian pembangunan pada umumnya. maksud dari penyusunan indikator ekonomi daerah (icor) ini adalah untuk mengetahui besarnya investasi yang dibutuhkan agar pertumbuhan ekonomi sesuai dengan yang ditetapkan. adapun tujuannya adalah dapat diketahui kinerja dan tingkat efisiensi investasi dalam upaya mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi maupun pembangunan pada umumnya. dalam teori ekonomi, investasi merupakan salah satu faktor produksi yang penting, di samping faktor produksi sumberdaya manusia, dalam proses pembangunan ekonomi suatu wilayah karena investasi berpotensi untuk meningkatkan kapasitas produksi. dengan kapasitas produksi yang meningkat, yaitu misalnya karena investasi digunakan untuk membeli atau menambah barang-barang modal seperti mesin-mesin dan peralatannya, maka hasil-hasil produksi di wilayah tersebut diharapkan juga akan meningkat. ukuran kebutuhan investasi yang dibutuhkan untuk dapat memenuhi suatu target pendapatan wilayah atau laju pertumbuhan ekonomi tertentu diberikan oleh suatu ukuran atau indikator ekonomi yang disebut sebagai incremental capital output ratio (icor). dengan icor, perkiraan kebutuhan investasi dapat diperkirakan untuk mencapai suatu tingkat kinerja ekonomi yang ditetapkan karena icor merupakan ukuran atau indikator makro yang menghubungkan antara investasi dengan pendapatan wilayah. secara umum tulisan ini merupakan upaya untuk menghitung besaran incremental capital output ratio (icor). namun, dalam pelaksanaan penghitungannya, dibutuhkan upaya lain sebelum melakukan penghitungan icor tersebut, yaitu penghitungan produk domestik bruto (pdb) menurut pengeluaran atau yang biasa juga disebut sebagai pdb penggunaan (pdb by expenditure). penghitungan pdb penggunaan dibutuhkan karena penghitungan icor berkait dengan salah satu komponen pdb sisi pengeluaran, yaitu pembentukan modal tetap bruto (pmtb). pmtb menjelaskan besarnya realisasi investasi fisik yang telah dilakukan. investasi fisik terdiri dari investasi yang dilakukan untuk membeli atau menambah atau memperbaiki barangbarang modal seperti bangunan (tempat tinggal dan bukan tempat tinggal), mesin mesin dan peralatannya, kendaraan, dan melakukan pekerjaan investasi fisik lainnya seperti reklamasi lahan, pemerataan lahan untuk kantor, dan sebagainya. penghitungan pdb penggunaan perlu dilakukan sebagai tahap awal sebelum melakukan penghitungan icor dan dalam upaya untuk menghasilkan konsistensi antara pendapatan wilayah (yaitu pdb) pada satu sisi dan icor pada sisi lain. dengan demikian, sejalan dengan penghitungan icor, beberapa hal lain yang dapat dilakukan adalah: (1) melakukan penghitungan pdrb penggunaan (pdrb by expenditure), (2) melakukan analisis data terhadap pdrb penggunaan, terutama mengenai pembentukan modal tetap bruto (pmtb); (3) melakukan penyusunan indikator ekonomi (didi nuryadin dan jamzani sodik) 85 penghitungan incremental capital output ratio (icor); 4) melakukan analisis terhadap besaran icor yang dihasilkan dan menggunakan icor sebagai indikator kebutuhan investasi pada masa-masa yang akan datang. metode penelitian survei dan berbagai data sekunder data yang digunakan untuk penyusunan icor sektoral bersumber dari hasil survei khusus penambahan barang modal dan inventori, serta survei-survei rutin yang dilakukan oleh bps diantaranya survei tahunan industri besar/ sedang, survei tahunan perusahaan air minum, survei tahunan konstruksi, survei khusus pendapatan regional, survei angkatan kerja nasional, serta survei-survei lain yang relevan. selain survei bps, juga diperlukan data skunder pemerintah daerah kabupaten sleman. selain yang disebutkan di atas, digunakan juga data dari penghitungan produk domestik regional bruto baik menurut lapangan usaha (by industrial origin) maupun menurut penggunaan (by expenditure). pemanfaatan hasil-hasil survei ini dilakukan karena penghitungan icor memerlukan sumber dan cakupan data yang cukup luas. estimasi pmtb sektoral pembentukan modal tetap bruto (pmtb) yang dihitung di sini adalah pmtb atas dasar harga konstan, karena pertumbuhan ekonomi diukur berdasarkan pdrb atas dasar harga konstan. dalam menghitung pmtb sektoral atas dasar harga konstan digunakan metode alokasi. sebagai alokator adalah nilai penyusutan masingmasing sektor yang diperoleh pada penghitungan pdrb atas dasar harga konstan, sedangkan total investasi dihitung dari jumlah pdrb yang digunakan untuk pembentukan modal tetap bruto dan perubahan stok. digunakannya nilai penyusutan sebagai alokator didasarkan pada pemikiran bahwa penyusutan barang modal tetap yang terjadi pada tahun tertentu akan dipakai untuk investasi pada tahun itu juga. ini berarti bahwa investasi mempunyai hubungan linier dengan nilai penyusutan, sehingga sektor-sektor yang mempunyai nilai penyusutan besar akan memiliki investasi yang besar pula. perhitungan pertambahan/pertumbuhan output sektoral perhitungan pertambahan output (y) didekati dengan pertambahan nilai tambah dari pdrb (added value) menurut sektoral. sebagai contoh pertambahan output sektor pertanian tahun 2007 didekati dengan pengurangan nilai tambah pada tahun 2007 atas dasar harga konstan dengan nilai tambah sektor ini pada tahun 2006 menurut harga konstan. dengan perlakuan yang sama pertambahan output sektoral dihitung dan disusun sebagai pertambahan output sektoral. pendekatan ini dilakukan karena data nilai tambah tersedia dengan time series yang cukup panjang yang diturunkan dari penghitungan pdrb sektoral. selain itu untuk beberapa sektor yang outputnya berupa jasa penghitungan nilai tambah akan lebih mudah dan lebih tepat. metode penghitungan icor 1. metode standar. secara matematis rumus yang digunakan untuk menghitung icor adalah: k icor =  (2) y dimana: k adalah investasi, atau barang modal baru, penambahan kapasitas terpasang; y adalah pertambahan/pertumbuhan output dalam praktek, data yang diperoleh bukan penambahan barang modal baru atau penambahan kapasitas terpasang, melainkan besarnya investasi yang ditanamkan baik oleh pemerintah maupun swasta. sehingga dengan mengasumsikan k = i (i= investasi), maka rumus (2) dapat dimodifikasi menjadi: i icor =  (3) y rumus (3) ini disebut dengan gross icor. dalam penerapannya rumus gross icor ini lebih sering dipakai, karena data yang digunakan tersedia relatif lebih lengkap. dalam beberapa hal, untuk kasus-kasus tertentu investasi jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 13, nomor 1, april 2012: 83-95 86 yang ditanamkan pada suatu tahun akan langsung menghasilkan tambahan output pada tahun itu juga, sehingga rumus (2) di atas dapat dinyatakan sebagai berikut:   it  icor = _____________ (4) (yt – yt-1) dimana: i adalah investasi pada tahun ke-t; yt adalah output pada tahun ke-t; yt-1 adalah output pada tahun ket-1 rumus (4) di atas dapat diartikan bahwa investasi yang ditanamkan pada tahun ke t akan menimbulkan output pada tahun t itu juga. pada metode standar, langkah penghitungan dilakukan terlebih dahulu dengan mencari icor pada masing-masing tahun untuk periode waktu t1 sampai tn , sehingga akan didapatkan nilai icor sebanyak n buah. icor yang dianggap dapat mewakili untuk periode waktu tersebut (t1 sampai dengan tn) diperoleh dengan jalan membagi antara jumlah nilai icor selama periode waktu t1 s.d tn dengan jumlah tahun (n), atau dengan mencari rata-rata nilai icor selama periode t1 sampai dengan tn. prinsip dari icor metode standar ini adalah prinsip ratarata sederhana. penulisannya secara matematis adalah sebagai berikut: 1 i t icor = -----  (5) n (yt – yt-1) kelemahan dari penggunaan rata-rata sederhana ini adalah jika terjadi suatu koefisien icor yang ekstrim pada tahun-tahun tertentu, maka koefisien ini berpengaruh pada nilai ratarata koefisien icor dalam periode waktu penghitungan. namun demikian penggunaan metode standar ini mempunyai daya tarik lain yaitu mampu mencerminkan inefficiency yang sering terjadi dalam praktek. 2. koefisien icor negatif. koefisien negatif dapat terjadi jika output pada suatu waktu tertentu lebih kecil dari pada tahun sebelumnya. penurunan output terjadi jika ada sebagian barang modal dijual, rusak atau tidak diaktifkan karena alasan tertentu. walaupun mungkin ada penambahan barang modal baru, tetapi sementara itu barang modal baru tersebut belum berproduksi atau telah berproduksi tetapi output yang dihasilkan relatif sangat kecil dibandingkan dengan output tahun sebelumnya. sehingga selisih output antara tahun ditanamkannya investasi dengan tahun sebelumnya bernilai negatif. pada gilirannya koefisien icor-pun menjadi negatif. dengan demikian penanaman barang modal baru belum menghasilkan output secara optimal, atau bisa dikatakan investasi yang ditanamkan belum/ tidak efisien pada saat itu. tetapi apabila ada penambahan/penggantian barang modal, maka tidak bisa dikatakan bahwa telah terjadi inefficiency. namun demikian secara makro keadaan yang disebutkan terakhir ini jarang terjadi. 3. koefisien icor yang besar dan positif. koefisien icor yang relatif besar terjadi jika investasi yang ditanamkan pada tahun tertentu relatif besar, sedangkan output yang dihasilkan lebih besar tetapi hampir sama dengan output pada tahun sebelumnya, atau tambahan output yang dihasilkan relatif kecil. dengan kata lain investasi yang ditanamkan pada tahun itu belum efektif sehingga tidak efisien dan menghasilkan koefisien icor yang relatif besar. 4. metode akumulasi. pendekatan penghitungan icor dengan metode akumulasi berdasarkan suatu anggapan bahwa timbulnya kenaikan output selama periode waktu t disebabkan karena adanya akumulasi investasi selama periode waktu t. perumusan icor dengan metode ini adalah rasio antara akumulasi investasi terhadap akumulasi peningkatan output selama periode waktu t 1 sampai t n yang secara matematis dituliskan sebagai berikut:  i t icor =  (6)  (y t – y t-1) kelebihan dari metode akumulasi adalah, dalam penerapannya metode ini terkandung prinsip rata-rata tertimbang. dengan digunakannya rata-rata tertimbang, maka koefisien icor ekstrim yang terjadi pada tahun-tahun tertentu bisa dihindari. akan tetapi metode akumulasi ini tidak memperhitungkan kapasitas terpasang yang berlebih dan tidak dimanfaatkan secara penuh. dengan kata lain, metode akumulasi tidak bisa mencerminkan inefficiency, penyusunan indikator ekonomi (didi nuryadin dan jamzani sodik) 87 yang memang terjadi dalam praktek. 5. time lag. biasanya investasi yang ditanamkan pada tahun tertentu tidak secara langsung memberikan hasil tambahan output pada tahun itu juga, tetapi memerlukan waktu beberapa tahun lagi. rentang waktu yang diperlukan agar penanaman investasi dapat menghasilkan tambahan output disebut time lag (lag). jika investasi yang ditanamkan pada tahun ke-t baru menimbulkan kenaikan output setelah s tahun, maka rumus (4) di atas (icor metode standar) dengan adanya faktor time lag dapat dimodifikasi menjadi : 1 i t icor =    (7) n (yt+s – yt+s-1) dimana: time lag = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, dan sebagainya. s adalah lama waktu yang dibutuhkan untuk memperoleh hasil/output terhitung sejak penanaman investasi. 6. asumsi-asumsi. walaupun pertambahan output sebenarnya bukan hanya disebabkan oleh investasi, tetapi juga oleh faktor-faktor lain di luar investasi, dalam penghitungan icor ini digunakan asumsi bahwa tidak ada faktor lain yang mempengaruhi output selain investasi, dengan kata lain faktor-faktor lain di luar investasi dianggap konstan. perubahan/kenaikan output hanya disebabkan oleh karena adanya perubahan kapital atau investasi. output dari suatu kegiatan ekonomi merupakan input antara untuk kegiatan ekonomi lainnya, sehingga jika digunakan konsep output dalam penghitungan icor dirasakan kurang tepat karena akan terjadi penghitungan ganda, yaitu ouput dari suatu perusahaan akan dihitung kembali sebagai input perusahaan lainnya. untuk menghindari hal tersebut maka dalam penghitungan icor digunakan konsep nilai tambah. konsep nilai tambah (value added) yang digunakan dalam penghitungan icor ini selanjutnya dinamakan dengan istilah icvar (incremental capital value added ratio). meskipun demikian, ukuran icvar juga digunakan untuk memprediksi suatu rasio investasi terhadap output, dan bukannya terhadap nilai tambah. penggunaan icvar dalam penghitungan icor untuk menghindari terjadinya penghitungan ganda (double counting). icor yang disajikan telah memperhitungkan selisih stok (perubahan stok) bahan baku, barang setengah jadi dan barang jadi. dalam pendekatan mikro, umumnya perusahaan diasumsikan tidak melakukan penimbunan atau akumulasi stok (baik bahan baku, barang setengah jadi, maupun barang jadi) untuk kelancaran produksi. dalam pendekatan makro, perusahaan dianggap telah membuat keputusan akumulasi stok dengan mempertimbangkan kondisi ekonomi yang akan datang. misalnya, dalam hal ada kecenderungan bahan baku akan melonjak, perusahaan dapat mengambil keputusan melakukan akumulasi stok bahan baku dengan mempertimbangkan kondisi ekonomi yang akan datang. jadi perubahan stok, dalam hal ini, bisa dikategorikan sebagai bagian dari pembentukan modal (investasi). penghitungan icor di sini, menggunakan pendekatan makro, dengan menganggap perubahan stok sebagai bagian dari pembentukan modal (investasi). hasil dan pembahasan struktur perekonomian struktur perekonomian terbentuk dari nilai tambah yang diciptakan oleh masing-masing sektor dapat menggambarkan seberapa besar ketergantungan berproduksi dari setiap sektor ekonomi. dari struktur ekonomi dapat diketahui sektor-sektor mana saja yang menjadi andalan di suatu wilayah. selama periode tahun 2006-2010, kontribusi sektor primer cenderung terus mengalami penurunan yaitu dari 14,41 persen pada tahun 2006 menjadi 13,55 persen pada tahun 2010; kontribusi sektor sekunder terus mengalami kenaikan yaitu dari 28,07 persen pada tahun 2006 menjadi 28,26 persen pada tahun 2010; kontribusi sektor tersier bergerak fluktuatif pada kisaran 57 – 58 persen, pada tahun 2006 kontribusi sebesar 57,52 persen, dan menurun menjadi 57,19 pada tahun 2008, namun kembali meningkat menjadi 58,19 persen pada tahun 2010 (tabel 1). dalam beberapa tahun terakhir perekonomian kabupaten sleman didominasi oleh empat sektor yaitu sektor pertanian, industri peng8 o ja k b p 2 1 ta to p a m (s p s s a 1 b s p m p p c is te k e p p y b k le s d g 4 s 88 olahan, perd asa-jasa. na kontribusi bentukan pd pada tahun 2007 sebesar 14,75 persen ahun 2010 se jika diam or maka perbankan, angkutan da meningkat d struktur ek perdagangan stabil pada k sekunder (in air minum, 16 persen. k besar bila sektor prime penggalian) d mencerminka perekonomia pertanian m cenderung be dilihat stimewa yo en/kota, kab kan daerah ekonomi pali pertumbuhan pai 4,49 pe yogyakarta s bantul sebe karena damp ebih mempe sleman dar dengan pote gunungkidu 4,15 persen d tabel 1. lapa primer sekunder tersier sumber: bps ka ju dagangan, h amun dalam sektor per drb menga 2006 sebesa r 13,99 perse n, tahun 2009 ebesar 13,5 p mati kontrib sektor ter sektor ba an komunik dari tahun konomi) yan n, hotel, d kisaran 21 pe ndustri peng bangunan) kontribusi k dibandingka er (pertania dalam pemb an terjadiny an kabupate menuju stru erbasis indu dalam ling ogyakarta, d bupaten sle yang men ing pesat. n n kabupaten rsen lebih sebesar 4,98 sar 4,97 pe pak dari le engaruhi pe ripada wila ensi sektor ul mengalam dan kabupat . struktur pe angan usaha bupaten sleman rnal ekonom otel dan res m enam tahu rtanian da alami penur ar 14,41 per en, tahun 2 9 sebesar 14 persen. usi masing-m rsier (keua angunan, d kasi) menunj ke tahun. ng berasal dan restoran ersen, sedan golahan, listr bergerak pa kedua sekto an dengan an, pertamb bentukan pd ya pergesera en sleman uktur ekon ustri dan perd gkup provin di antara lim eman biasany ngalami pe namun pada n sleman ya kecil dari persen dan ersen. hal tusan gunu rekonomian ayah lain. pertanian, mi pertumbuh ten kulonpr erekonomian 2 14 28 57 n, 2011. mi dan studi storan serta un terakhir alam pemrunan yaitu rsen, tahun 008 sebesar 4,11 persen, masing sekangan dan dan sektor njukkan tren kontribusi dari sektor n bergerak gkan sektor rik gas dan ada kisaran or ini lebih kontribusi bangan dan drb. hal ini an struktur dari sektor nomi yang dagangan. nsi daerah ma kabupaya merupaertumbuhan tahun 2010 ang mencapada kota n kabupaten ini terjadi ung merapi n kabupaten sementara kabupaten han sebesar ogo mencan kabupaten 2006 2 4,41 13 8,07 28 7,52 57 pembangun pai pert tahun 20 tidak me perekon ekonomi pai 4,48 kembali persen. gamba 2. increm a. i koefisien adalah s nya tam dibutuhk unit ou mencerm nomi at hasan in adalah (pmtb). banding output. k beda dan relative t kan pen bentuk u sleman, ad ta 2007 2 3,99 14 8,51 28 7,50 57 nan volume 1 tumbuhan 008 kondisi enentu berim nomian di i di kabupat persen di t meningkat ar 1. rata-ra adhk mental cap icor tota n icor incr suatu besaran mbahan kap kan untuk m utput. tingg minkan ting tas investasi ni tambaha pembentuk besaran ico gkan besarny karena unit n beraneka r tidak berbed nghitungan uang (nomin dhk 2000 ta ahun 2008 2 4,75 14 8,06 28 7,19 57 13, nomor 1, sebesar 3,06 perekonom mbas terhad tahun 2009 ten sleman m tahun 2009, tahun 2010 ata pertumbu 2000, tahun pital output al. sebagaim remental capi n yang men pital (invest menaikkan/ gi rendahn ggi rendahn i agregatif. an kapital ( kan modal or diperole ya pmtb de t pmtb bent ragam semen da, maka un keduanya nal). ahun 2004–20 2009 2 4,11 13 8,17 28 7,72 58 april 2012: 8 6 persen. p mian dunia y ap melemah 9. pertumbu melemah me dan mengal 0 mencapai uhan ekonom n 2006 -2010 t ratio (ico mana diketa ital output r unjukkan be asi) baru y menambah nya icor j nya biaya dalam pem (investasi) b tetap b eh dengan m engan tamba tuknya berb ntara unit ou ntuk memud dinilai da 008 (persen) rat rata010 3,55 14,1 8,26 28,2 8,19 57,6 83-95 pada yang hnya uhan ncalami 4,49 mi, or) ahui ratio esaryang satu juga ekombabaru ruto memahan edautput dahalam ta a 16 21 62 penyus be 2010 se untuk output tuhkan unit. b produk menya dicapa jukkan yang te ni ini ber 4,39 pa ratio (i kan da duksi menun kan un kin ef kinerja dingka menun kabupa secara dengan ra 7–8 tab sumbe g sunan indika esaran koefis ecara total 8 memperole t dalam ren n investasi besaran ko ktivitas pm angkut pertu i. semakin k n semakin e erjadi. ilai icor ka rada diatas ada tahun 2 icor) meru alam menen suatu negar njukkan bah ntuk mengha fisien. sehin a investasi n an dengan njukan bahw aten sleman nasional. be n icor prov persen selam bel 2. perkem tahun 2007 2008 2009 2010 rata-rata er : bps prov diy gambar 2. ico ator ekonom sien icor a 8,69; hal ini eh penamb ntang period fisik (pmtb efisien ico mtb yang umbuhan ek kecil koefisi efisien pem abupaten sle icor nasio 010. increme upakan ukur ntukan tingk ra. nilai ic hwa investa asilkan outp ngga bisa d nasional leb kabupaten wa daya sa n masih lem egitu juga ji vinsi diy ya ma tiga terak mbangan ico y, bps kab.slem or dan laju pe mi (didi nury akumulasi pe menggamb bahan satu de tersebut b) sebanyak or mereflek pada akh konomi yang ien icor m mbentukan m eman sebesa onal yaitu se ental capital o ran yang di kat efisiensi cor yang re si yang dib put menjadi dikatakan b bih efisien d sleman. h aing investa mah dibandin ika dibandin ang berkisar khir, maka k or kabupate nasional 3,81 4,14 5,39 4,39 4,43 man, dan kemen ertumbuhan e yadin dan jam eriode barkan unit dibuk 8,69 ksikan hirnya g bisa menunmodal ar 8,69 ebesar output igunai proendah butuhsemabahwa dibanhal ini asi di ngkan ngkan r antakinerja inv ma de tin lai dk pe ba pe ata sem an de da bu kin pr 20 pe an inv me sa an me en sleman d nterian keuanga ekonomi adh mzani sodik) vestasi atau asih di atas emikian, ico nggi apabila in, seperti p ki jakarta (4 ersen) pada t dari gam ahwa terdap ertumbuhan au semakin makin rend ntara lpe d engan tingk apat pula dij uhan ekonom nerja invest roses produk b. icor 010 dihitung endekatan in n modal teta vestasi yang enghasilkan ma). hasil p ngka icor enurut sekto dan nasional, icor provinsi d 8,53 7,13 8,14 7,93 an, 2011. hk 2000, kabu ) u nilai ico s rata-rata p or provins a dibanding provinsi jaw 4,6 persen) d tahun 2010. bar 2 dan ta pat korelasi ekonomi tinggi laju p ah icor. n an icor di at signifikan jelaskan bah mi yang leb tasi akan l ksi yang lebi sektoral. i g dengan me nvestasi sam p bruto (pm g dilakukan n nilai tamb perhitungan kabupaten or dan subse , adhk 2000 diy upaten sleman r kabupate provinsi diy si diy juga gkan denga wa timur (3, dan provinsi abel 3, dapat i negatif an (lpe) deng pertumbuhan nilai koefisie iperoleh seb nsi 5 persen hwa pada laj bih tinggi, d lebih efisien h efisien pul icor sekto etode standa ma dengan pe mtb) dan lag n pada tahu bah pada ta menunjukk n sleman ektor. 0 tahun 2007 kab.slema 8,70 7,99 9,18 8,69 8,64 n tahun 2006 89 en sleman y. namun terbilang an daerah ,2 persen), riau (3,09 dijelaskan ntara laju gan icor n ekonomi en korelasi besar -0,91 n. hal ini u pertumdiharapkan n melalui la. ral tahun ar dengan embentukg 0 (bahwa un t akan ahun yang kan bahwa bervariasi 7 2010 an 2010 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 13, nomor 1, april 2012: 83-95 90 tabel 3. matrik korelasi lpe dan icor kabupaten sleman tahun 2006–2010 variabel lpe icor lpe 1,000000 -0,919755 icor -0,919755 1,000000 sumber: hasil analisis, 2011. beberapa kecenderungan yang dapat diamati di antaranya: pertama adalah sektor pertanian dan sektor perdagangan, hotel dan restoran khususnya subsektor hotel yang memiliki nilai icor negatif masing-masing -46,28 dan -4,49. bahkan untuk sektor pertanian, hanya subsektor perikanan saja yang memiliki nilai icor positif. koefisien icor yang bernilai negatif, dapat dimaknai bahwa investasi yang dilakukan belum/tidak efisien pada saat itu. namun demikian, pada kasus sektor pertanian icor negatif lebih disebabkan karena output yang dihasilkan relatif sangat kecil dibandingkan dengan output tahun sebelumnya. pada tahun 2010, sektor ini terpengaruh erupsi merapi, yang menyebabkan output tahun 2010 lebih kecil dibanding tahun 2009. output menurun (negatif) selanjutnya menyebabkan icor pada tahun 2010 negatif. sama halnya dengan sektor pertanian, sektor perdagangan, hotel dan restoran khususnya subsektor hotel juga sangat terpengaruh oleh erupsi merapi terutama di wilayah kaliurang. kedua, yakni sektor dan subsektor yang tercatat memiliki nilai icor tinggi (dua digit), meliputi sektor listrik, gas dan air bersih (seluruh subsektor), pengangkutan dan komunikasi (subsektor pengangkutan) dan sektor jasa-jasa (subsektor pemerintahan umum). terhadap tingginya nilai icor, dapat dijelaskan bahwa secara umum sektor dan subsektor tersebut merupakan sektor pelayanan publik yang memerlukan investasi cukup tinggi. secara khusus ditambahkan bahwa tingginya biaya investasi untuk armada angkutan dan jasa penunjang angkutan yang terjadi pada tahun 2010 dan tidak secara langsung menghasilkan nilai tambah pada tahun yang sama, turut memberikan kontribusi terhadap tingginya nilai icor. sektor listrik dan air bersih dan sektor pangangkutan dan komunikasi juga memiliki karakter yang padat modal dan investasinya bersifat jangka panjang. lebih lanjut, terhadap nilai icor subsektor pemerintahan umum dapat dijelaskan bahwa pengeluaran pemerintah kabupaten sleman melalui apbd yang dapat dikategorikan sebagai investasi adalah pengeluaran untuk modal pembangunan dan biaya rehabilitasi sarana dan prasarana publik. sebagai bentuk investasi terhadap fungsi pelayanan masyarakat dalam hal pelayanan umum, tentu saja hal ini tidak serta merta akan menghasilkan nilai tambah. harus disadari bahwa pengeluaran investasi pemerintah utamanya kepada barang publik yang notabene tidak dapat diharapkan akan terjadi penciptaan nilai tambah dengan segera (lihat tabel 4 dalam lampiran). ketiga, sektor dan subsektor dengan nilai icor rendah (efisien), yang meliputi: sektor pertanian (subsektor perikanan), sektor pertambangan dan penggalian, sektor industri pengolahan, sektor perdagangan hotel dan restoran (subsektor perdagangan besar dan eceran dan restoran), sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi (subsektor komunikasi), sektor keuangan, dan sektor jasa-jasa (subsektor swasta). selain memberikan kontribusi yang cukup besar bagi pembentukan pdrb, sektor dan subsektor tersebut memiliki kinerja investasi yang baik. sektor industri pengolahan dan sektor perdagangan, hotel dan restoran cukup memiliki daya saing sebagai daya tarik bagi masuknya investor di kabupaten sleman. 3. kebutuhan investasi. untuk memperkirakan kebutuhan investasi pada beberapa periode ke depan, akan digunakan angka icor rata-rata lima tahun terakhir (2006-2010) sebagai basis proyeksi. selanjutnya untuk periode berikutnya dilakukan penyesuaian dengan skenario kinerja invetasi mengarah semakin efisien. dengan menggunakan angka-angka icor tersebut dan dengan menggunakan proyeksi laju pertumbuhan pdrb tahunan, maka kebutuhan investasi dalam harga konstan disajikan pada tabel 5. skenario proyeksi terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, digunakan asumsi bahwa pdrb akan tumbuh moderat berada pada kisaran 5 persen dengan standar deviasi 0,5 persen. pada tahun 2011, dengan skenario ekonomi akan tumbuh sebesar 5 persen dan kinerja investasi 7,82 persen maka dibutuhkan investasi sebesar 2,49 penyusunan indikator ekonomi (didi nuryadin dan jamzani sodik) 91 trilyun rupiah. kontraksi perubahan output pada pada tahun 2012 relatif jika dibandingkan tahun 2011 membuat kinerja investasi menjadi kurang efisien yakni 9,03 dengan kebutuhan investasi sebesar 2,57 trilyun. selanjutnya pada tahun 2013, dimana kinerja investasi lebih efisien dibanding tahun-tahun sebelumnya, pdrb diskenariokan tumbuh sebesar 5,44 persen dengan kebutuhan investasi sebesar 2,66 trilyun rupiah. perekonomian diprediksi akan tumbuh menggembirakan pada tahun 2015 sebesar 6,27 persen, meski dengan kinerja investasi yang masih relatif tinggi, dan kebutuhan investasi sebesar 2,82 trilyun rupiah. semakin tingginya kebutuhan investasi dari tahun ke tahun menuntut kecerdasan pemutus kebijakan dalam menentukan pilihan sektor investasi agar lebih efektif dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi dan menciptakan nilai tambah bagi perekonomian. terhadap hal tersebut, indikator icor saja tidak cukup untuk menentukan pilihan sektor investasi. beberapa hal yang dapat dipertimbangkan dalam penentuan sektor investasi adalah: pertama, sektor dan subsektor dengan koefisien icor rendah seharusnya mendapatkan prioritas untuk memperoleh investasi, karena sektor tersebut menunjukkan tingkat efisiensi yang tinggi dalam penciptaan output. kedua, sektor dan subsektor yang memiliki serapan tenaga kerja besar meski dengan nilai icor tinggi. ketiga, sektor dan subsektor yang mempunyai keterkaitan ke depan dan ke belakang (backward dan forward linkages) tinggi, karena sektor dan subsektor tersebut memiliki dampak pengganda (multiplier effect) yang luas. di samping itu, pilihan investasi juga tetap harus mempertimbangkan kepemilikan sumberdaya (resources endowments), regulasi pemerintah terhadap peruntukan wilayah dan berbagai faktor lainnya. berdasarkan nilai icor, maka sektor dan subsektor yang menjadi prioritas bagi pilihan investasi adalah sektor pertanian (subsektor perikanan), sektor pertambangan dan penggalian, sektor industri pengolahan, sektor perdagangan hotel dan restoran (subsektor perdagangan besar dan eceran dan restoran), sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi (subsektor komunikasi), sektor keuangan, dan sektor jasa-jasa (subsektor swasta). sedangkan berdasarkan penciptaan kesempatan kerja (serapan tenaga kerja), maka sektor pertanian, industri pengolahan, perdagangan, hotel dan restoran, jasa-jasa merupakan sektor dengan serapan tenaga kerja yang cukup tinggi. lebih lanjut, jika dilihat dari dampak pengganda dan keterkaitan dengan ke depan dan ke belakang dengan sektor lain dan permintaan akhir, maka sektor perdagangan, hotel dan restoran, industri pengolahan dan sektor pertanian yang memiliki dampak pengganda relatif tinggi. dengan mempertimbangkan indikatorindikator tersebut, maka sektor perdagangan, hotel dan restoran hendaknya menjadi prioritas utama investasi. selain karena nilai icor yang rendah, serapan tenaga kerja yang tinggi, kontribusi terhadap pembentukan pdrb dan dampak pengganda yang tinggi, sektor ini sangat juga tengah berkembang pesat khusustabel 5. proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi, icor dan pmtb kabupaten sleman tahun 2010 2015 tahun lpe pdrb adhk delta y icor pmtb 2005 5,03 5.080.564 7,91 1.923.247 2006 4,50 5.309.059 228.495 9,05 2.067.573 2007 4,61 5.553.593 244.534 8,70 2.126.535 2008 5,13 5.838.246 284.653 7,85 2.233.120 2009 4,48 6.099.557 261.311 8,92 2.330.297 2010 4,49 6.373.200 273.643 8,69 2.379.287 2011* 5,00 6.692.205 319.005 7,82 2.494.172 2012* 5,18 6.976.858 284.653 9,03 2.570.674 2013* 5,44 7.330.215 353.357 7,53 2.660.965 2014* 5,70 7.649.220 319.005 8,60 2.742.277 2015* 6,27 7.991.126 341.906 8,27 2.827.756 ket : * proyeksi dengan metode trend linear. sumber: bps kabupaten sleman 2011, data diolah. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 13, nomor 1, april 2012: 83-95 92 nya di daerah urban dan suburban. beberapa wilayah kecamatan yang dekat dengan pusat perkotaan yang sekaligus berperan sebagai daerah penyangga bagi pusat-pusat pertumbuhan tengah tumbuh pesat dengan kebutuhan investasi yang cukup tinggi. menyertai sektor perdagangan, hotel dan restoran di wilayah urban dan suburban adalah kebutuhan akan investasi di sektor jasa khususnya jasa swasta sebagai konsekuensi akan tuntutan permintaan untuk melayani penduduk di wilayah tersebut. prioritas arahan investasi berikutnya adalah sektor pertanian. meski pada tahun 2010 nilai icor beberapa subsektor pada sektor ini negatif, namun sektor ini memili daya serap tenaga kerja yang tinggi dan dampak pengganda yang juga tinggi. di samping itu, faktor kepemilikan sumberdaya (resource endowment) seperti kesuburan lahan dan sumberdaya air yang melimpah sangat mendukung bagi pengembangan sektor dan subsektor pertanian. terlebih selama ini sektor pertanian senantiasa memberikan kontribusi terhadap pembentukan pdrb rata-rata sebesar 13 persen. sektor pertanian saat ini juga tengah membutuhkan dukungan investasi dan perhatian yang serius sebagai upaya pemulihan (recovery) pasca erupsi merapi agar dapat kembali menghasilkan nilai tambah bagi perekonomian. sektor berikutnya yang layak mendapatkan prioritas dalam arahan investasi adalah sektor industri pengolahan. sektor tersebut memiliki nilai icor rendah dan penciptaan lapangan kerja yang tinggi serta dampak pengganda terhadap sektor lain yang juga tinggi. kabupaten sleman memiliki banyak potensi bagi pengembangan industri pengolahan, khususnya skala industri kecil dan menengah. lebih lanjut, untuk sektor pertambangan dan penggalian meskipun memiliki nilai icor rendah namun tidak disarankan untuk menjadi prioritas dalam pemilihan investasi, karena faktor endowment kabupaten sleman dalam bahan tambang hanya berupa pasir (galian c). jika sektor tersebut dipacu melalui eksplorasi yang berlebihan juga akan berpotensi merusak lingkungan. hal yang sama juga terjadi pada sektor listrik dan air bersih dan sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi. kedua sektor tersebut kurang disarankan bagi pilihan prioritas investasi yang mendesak karena memiliki icor yang tinggi dan sifatnya yang pada modal (capital intensive). simpulan beberapa kesimpulan yang bisa ditarik dari kajian penyusunan indikator ekonomi (icor) kabupaten sleman tahun 2011 adalah sebagai berikut: (1) pada tahun 2010 perekonomian kabupaten sleman tumbuh sebesar 4,49 persen dengan sektor-sektor yang menjadi andalan adalah sektor perdagangan, hotel dan restoran yang memberikan konstribusi sebesar 22,76 persen, sektor jasa-jasa sebesar 18,80 persen, sektor industri pengolahan sebesar 14,16 persen, dan sektor pertanian sebesar 13,02 persen. (2) berdasarkan harga konstan 2000, perkembangan nilai investasi di kabupaten sleman selama lima terakhir terus mengalami peningtabel 6. distribusi serapan tenaga kerja di kabupaten sleman menurut sektor tahun 2005 2010 no sektor 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1 pertanian 22,41 21,61 22,19 19,28 20,36 22,23 2 pertambangan & penggalian 1,49 0,76 0,57 0,62 0,55 3 industri pengolahan 12,61 13,64 12,86 14,44 13,40 14,59 4 listrik, gas & air bersih 0,18 0,18 0,16 0,07 0,28 5 konstruksi 7,79 7,94 7,81 7,20 8,25 6,20 6 perdagangan, hotel & restoran 24,83 22,89 25,99 27,36 26,13 25,40 7 pengangkutan & komunikasi 4,14 4,87 2,94 5,76 4,04 8 keuangan, real estate & jasa perusahaan 2,89 2,51 3,34 3,10 3,42 9 jasa-jasa 23,66 25,61 24,51 22,17 23,56 24,14 total 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 100,00 jumlah (orang) 477,718 462,745 505,672 527,985 528,376 533,045 penyusunan indikator ekonomi (didi nuryadin dan jamzani sodik) 93 katan meski dengan laju pertumbuhan yang kurang menggembirakan, bahkan pada tahun 2010 hanya mampu tumbuh 2,10 persen. perkembangan investasi pma dan pmdn selama tiga tahun terakhir juga mengalami penurunan akibat faktor ekonomi global dan nasional. (3) dari hasil perhitungan diperoleh dugaan koefisien icor kabupaten sleman tahun 2010 sebesar 8,69 lebih tinggi dari rata-rata icor provinsi daerah istimewa yogyakarta sebesar 7,93 persen dan icor nasional pada tahun yang sama sebesar 4,43 persen. secara sektoral nilai icor dapat dikelompokkan menjadi tiga kategori. pertama, icor negatif, yakni sektor pertanian dan sektor perdagangan, hotel dan restoran khususnya subsektor hotel yang memiliki nilai icor masing-masing -46,28 dan -4,49. kedua, yakni sektor dan subsektor yang tercatat memiliki nilai icor tinggi (dua digit), meliputi sektor listrik, gas dan air bersih (seluruh subsektor), pengangkutan dan komunikasi (subsektor pengangkutan) dan sektor jasa-jasa (subsektor pemerintahan umum). ketiga, sektor dan subsektor dengan nilai icor rendah (efisien), yang meliputi: sektor pertanian (subsektor perikanan), sektor pertambangan dan penggalian, sektor industri pengolahan, sektor perdagangan hotel dan restoran (subsektor perdagangan besar dan eceran dan restoran), sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi (subsektor komunikasi), sektor keuangan, dan sektor jasa-jasa (subsektor swasta). (4) dengan skenario proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi, bahwa pdrb akan tumbuh moderat berada pada kisaran 5 persen maka nilai icor lima tahun ke depan diprediksi masih berada pada kisaran 7–9 persen dengan kebutuhan investasi 2,49–2,82 trilyun rupiah per tahun. rekomendasi. (1) nilai icor kabupaten sleman secara total yang tinggi mencerminkan inefisiensi kinerja investasi yang kurang baik dan sekaligus kebutuhan akan investasi yang tinggi. untuk itu, kebutuhan investasi bisa ditopang oleh dunia usaha mengingat keterbatasan anggaran pemerintah. merespon hal tersebut maka, iklim usaha yang kondusif dan serangkaian kebijakan dan aturan maupun prosedur yang terkait dengan investasi untuk disederhanakan. (2) mengendalikan perencanaan dan pengembangan investasi secara konsisten dan sistematis dalam rangka memperbaiki kinerja unitunit kerja terkait di lingkungan pemerintah kabupaten sleman yang menangani pengembangan investasi. jika dipandang perlu, untuk merealisasikan target pencapaian investasi pada sektor tertentu yang dilandasi oleh implementasi rencana aksi pengembangan investasi dapat dibuat business map peluang investasi beserta bentuk-bentuk dukungan dari pemerintah kabupaten termasuk aspek perizinan dan insentif. (3) pilihan terhadap sektor dan subsektor investasi dengan terlebih dahulu mempertimbangkan indikator seperti icor, serapan tenaga kerja, keterkaitan ke hulu dan hilir serta kepemilikan sumberdaya (resource endowment) penting untuk dilakukan. namun demikian, bukan berarti meninggalkan atau menegasikan sektor dan subsektor yang tidak memenuhi kriteria dalam indikator-indikator yang digunakan. (4) peran investasi pemerintah melalui pengeluaran pembangunan dapat lebih difokuskan kepada pembenahan infrastruktur dan kelembagaan guna menunjang iklim investasi yang baik serta mereduksi munculnya potensi ekonomi biaya tinggi. di samping itu, perlu diakomodir berbagai skema kerjasama pemerintah swasta (public private partnership) dalam investasi penyediaan barang-barang publik sebagai upaya mengatasi keterbatasan anggaran pemerintah. (5) terhadap sektor-sektor yang memenuhi kriteria, (nilai icor, kontribusi terhadap pdrb, serapan tenaga kerja, ketersediaan sumberdaya), sebagai beikut: (a) sektor perdagangan; hotel dan restoran: mengembangkan obyek dan daya tarik wisata (odtw), termasuk recovery kawasan kaliurang, mengembangkan pemasaran pariwisata, meningkatkan kapasitas pedagang pasar tradisional, meningkatkan penataan pasar umum (b) sektor pertanian; mengembangkan sektor pertanian ke arah usaha agribisnis dengan memperkuat sistem pertanian tanaman pangan, peternakan, perikanan, kehutanan, dan perkebunan dalam artian luas, meningkatkan ketahanan pangan daerah melalui penganekaragaman sumber daya pangan lokal, peningjurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 13, nomor 1, april 2012: 83-95 94 katan produksi hasil tanaman pangan dengan penerapan teknologi tepat guna, meningkatkan penerapan teknologi tepat guna di bidang pertanian, perkebunan, peternakan, dan perikanan, meningkatkan sarana dan prasarana tanaman pangan, kehutanan, perkebunan, peternakan, dan perikanan, meningkatkan pemasaran hasil produksi pertanian, perkebunan, peternakan, dan perikanan, mengembangkan budidaya perikanan air tawar melalui pengembangan dan pengelolaan kawasan minapolitan (c) sektor industri pengolahan. meningkatkan kapasitas manajemen (produksi, pemasaran, keuangan, sdm) umkm dan di sentra ikm, mengembangkan sentra-sentra industri potensial, mengembangkan industri yang menghasilkan input bagi sektor pertanian,dan pengolahan pasca panen (pembibitan, pembenihan, rekayasa, pengembangan makanan olahan), mengembangkan industri kecil dan menengah (ikm) yang berorientasi ekspor dan banyak menyerap tenaga kerja, meningkatkan sarana dan prasarana bidang perindustrian dan perdagangan daftar pustaka badan pusat statistik. 2008. kabupaten sleman, kabupaten sleman dalam angka, tahun 2007. sleman: bps. badan pusat statistik. 2009. kabupaten sleman, kabupaten sleman dalam angka, tahun 2008. sleman: bps. badan pusat statistik. 2009. produk domestik regional bruto (pdrb) kabupaten sleman, tahun 2008. sleman: bps. badan pusat statistik. 2010. kabupaten sleman, kabupaten sleman dalam angka, tahun 2009. sleman: bps. badan pusat statistik. 2010. produk domestik regional bruto (pdrb) kabupaten sleman, tahun 2009. sleman: bps. badan pusat statistik. 2011. analisis produk domestik regional bruto (pdrb) diy, tahun 2006-2010. yogyakarta: bps. badan pusat statistik. 2011. kabupaten sleman dalam angka, tahun 2010. sleman: bps. badan pusat statistik. 2011. produk domestik regional bruto (pdrb) kabupaten sleman, tahun 2010. sleman: bps. badan pusat statistik. 2012. kabupaten sleman dalam angka, tahun 2011. sleman: bps. badan pusat statistik. 2012. produk domestik regional bruto (pdrb) kabupaten sleman, tahun 2011. sleman: bps. mankiw, n, gregory. 2001. teori ekonomi makro, edisi 7, tahun 2000. jakarta: penerbit erlangga. muhamad, farid m. 2008. incremental capital output ratio: barometer efisiensi perekonomian nasional. jurnal ekonomi bisnis no.1 vol.13, april 2008. todaro, michael, p. 2000. pembangunan ekonomi, terjemahan harismunandar, edisi lima. jakarta: bumi aksara. penyusunan indikator ekonomi (didi nuryadin dan jamzani sodik) 95 lampiran tabel 4. koefisien icor kabupaten sleman 2010 menurut lapangan usaha sektor pmtb delta y icor 1. pertanian 143.952 (3.111) (46,28) a. tanaman bahan makanan 92.794 (5.980) (15,52) b. tanaman perkebunan 5.273 (413) (12,77) c. peternakan dan hasil-hasilnya 25.473 (461) (55,20) d. kehutanan 6.593 (144) (45,64) e. perikanan 13.818 3.888 3,55 2. pertambangan & penggalian 20.679 4.404 4,70 3. industri pengolahan 229.500 32.556 7,05 4. listrik, gas & air bersih 69.559 4.039 17,22 a. listrik 66.088 3.851 17,16 c. air bersih 3.470 187 18,53 5. bangunan 440.090 45.089 9,76 6. perdagangan hotel & restoran 400.012 76.483 5,23 a. perdagangan besar & eceran 136.811 28.355 4,82 b. hotel 6.598 (1.469) (4,49) c. restoran 256.602 49.597 5,17 7. pengangkutan & komunikasi 327.473 23.529 13,92 a. pengangkutan 273.968 14.888 18,40 b. komunikasi 53.506 8.641 6,19 8. keuangan 215.643 37.781 5,71 9. jasa-jasa 532.383 58.630 9,08 a. pemerintahan umum 455.282 38.977 11,68 b. swasta 77.101 19.653 3,92 total 2.379.290 273.643 8,69 sumber: bps kabupaten sleman, 2011. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 23 no 1, april 2022 article type: research paper do institutions cause growth? evidence from asian countries bayu kharisma*, adhitya wardhana, and mohammad naufal faisal sofyan abstract: a well-maintained political stability and economic freedom can encourage economic growth through investment, human capital, and technological developments. adverse phenomena such as the asia rohingya conflict and uprisings in the middle east conflict create an unstable political and economic environment, requiring institutions to develop an ideal environment for investors. this paper aims to identify the effect of political and economic institutions on economic growth. this paper uses panel data from developing asian countries in 2009-2018 using the system gmm model. the results indicate that economic institutions have a positive and significant effect on economic growth. however, political institutions have no significant effect on economic growth. these results indicate that economic institutions have an essential role in maintaining and controlling the activities of emerging markets in asia. good institutions have to be in place to prevent fraud in market activities. in addition, economic freedom is one of the critical factors in attracting investment into the country to have a spillover effect on technological development. keywords: political institution; economic institution; economic growth; asian; gmm system jel classification: e02; o10; o17; o40 introduction institutions are fundamental in economic growth as they facilitate policies for investment and human capital (acemoglu, 2009). institutions incentivize economic activities which spur economic growth. institutions also offer ideal conditions that can trigger various production factors such as capital investment, human capital, and innovation and technological development (eslamloueyan & jafari, 2019). institutions’ “rules of the game” provide constraints on individual behavior and influence economic activity through transaction costs (north, 2016). additionally, institutions can affect other macroeconomic activities such as exports, imports, and foreign capital inflows by providing efficiency, especially in resource allocation, stability in property rights, and supporting freedom of choice (nguyen, su, & nguyen, 2018; asif & majid, 2018). one factor affecting institutions is economic conditions; even similar countries may be affected differently based on whatever economic condition they are facing. for example, the role of institutions in economic growth stems from differences in economic conditions in north and south korea. affiliation: department of economics, faculty of economics and business, universitas padjadjaran, west java, indonesia *correspondence: bayu.kharisma@unpad.ac.id this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v23i1.13897 citation: kharisma, b., wardhana, a., & sofyan, m. n. f. (2022). do institutions cause growth? evidence from asian countries. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 23(1), 51-65. article history received: 04 feb 2022 revised: 18 mar 2022 30 mar 2022 accepted: 06 apr 2022 https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorid=57205223978 https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?user=7xi8zu0aaaaj&hl=en http://iesp.feb.unpad.ac.id/ http://iesp.feb.unpad.ac.id/ http://iesp.feb.unpad.ac.id/ http://iesp.feb.unpad.ac.id/ mailto:bayu.kharisma@unpad.ac.id http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/13897 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v23i1.13897&domain=pdf kharisma, wardhana, & sofyan do institutions cause growth? evidence from asian countries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 52 despite north and south korea gaining independence from japan simultaneously and having similarities in various factors such as geographical and cultural conditions (acemoglu, 2009), the present-day conditions of their economy have differed significantly. this disparity is due to the varying effects in how the institutions regulate each country, resulting in different economic conditions where south korea is more developed than north korea. another phenomenon regarding the role of institutions occurs in norway and venezuela, which shows how natural resources impact the two countries. torvik (2016) shows that although both have abundant natural resources, those natural resources have affected the economy of both countries differently. natural resources have encouraged norway’s economic growth, while venezuela is the opposite. one reason for this difference is the high role of political institutions in controlling resources by utilizing considerable political power. other phenomena of how institutions affect the economy occurs in south asia, resulting in rampant corruption cases and weak property rights (singh & pradhan, 2020). weak property rights cause low per capita income. the institutional phenomenon can be seen through the 2016 rohingya conflict, which peaked with a dispute between military forces and the rohingya community (burke et al., 2017). this phenomenon can be explained from an economic perspective, where conflicts can affect incoming investment (in this research, investment is shown in the form of establishing branches of multinational companies or new companies) (miklian, 2019). the case in south asia above is not unique. institutions also affect how other areas and regions cope and gain their economic conditions – thereby saying that institutions are one of the main contributors to a conducive economic environment. another significant area with prominent institutional effect is in the middle east, such as iraq. idris (2018) argues that the economic impact arising from the prolonged conflict is caused by the failure of iraqi institutions to manage the country’s potential natural resources, namely oil. petroleum cannot be adequately utilized by the government, which prevents these natural resources from increasing the quality of human capital. the government has also failed to diversify its policies regarding natural resources, thus reducing opportunities to increase investment and employment. the iraqi economy, which treats oil as the primary commodity and acts as a source of capital and consumption, requires the crucial role of institutions in determining economic growth (yousif, 2016). other developing countries in asia also experience similar problems. those countries tend to have weak institutions due to excessive intervention in the market, resulting in inefficiency and the potential for rent-seeking practices (khan, 2018). doğanay and değer (2021) stated that economic growth in developing countries is highly dependent on the quality of institutions in terms of effectiveness and efficiency of regulations. acemoglu (2009) states that institutions are divided into political and economic types. uddin, ali, and masih (2021) noted that political and economic institutions are measured by political stability and economic freedom. political stability affects economic growth because imbalances in the political world will lead to failure to manage or utilize political power, manipulation in the judiciary system, and may hinder an investor from committing to investments into the target country (olaoye & aderajo, 2020). thus, weak institutions kharisma, wardhana, & sofyan do institutions cause growth? evidence from asian countries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 53 will impact low investment growth and reduce economic growth (wanjuu & le roux, 2017). in this case, the quality of political institutions is measured using political stability and the absence of violence. kaufmann, kraay, and mastruzzi (2008) believe that political stability and the absence of violence are valued between -2.5 and +2.5. the greater the value, the better the level of political stability in the country and vice versa. kaufmann et al. (2008) explained that world trends are illegible as the world average is assumed to be 0. meanwhile, the asian average in 2018 was -0.39, and the developing countries in asia have a score of -0.14. asia’s negative value is caused by various conflicts, especially those originating at the domestic level. erlangga (2018) stated that political instability in south asia is rooted in prolonged conflicts in afghanistan and pakistan. hoh (2019) also mentioned that the middle east conflict increases political instability, thereby increasing risk for investors (especially china) from investing in the region, which will impact economic growth. figure 1 is a measure of the quality of political institutions. figure 1 political stability and absence of violence in developing countries in asia 2009-2018 source: the worldwide governance indicators (wgi) 2009-2018 economic institutions assist policy regulations, both in property rights and economic freedom. this indirectly incentivizes individuals who invest primarily in technology and production efficiency (li, chu, & gao, 2018). haini (2019) stated that economic institutions can cut information and transaction costs which helps avoid market failures and maintain market stability. it also ensures that the limited resources can be allocated and used efficiently to prevent exploitation by certain parties. figure 2 measures the quality of economic institutions based on the economic freedom index. -0,6 -0,4 -0,2 0,0 0,2 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 developing countries in asia asia kharisma, wardhana, & sofyan do institutions cause growth? evidence from asian countries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 54 figure 2 economic freedom index of developing countries in asia 2009-2018 source: the heritage foundation 2009-2018 figure 2 shows the average quality of economic institutions in asian countries. the average index value of developing countries in asia in 2018 was 62.55, higher than the asian average of 61.54 and the world average of 60.12. the heritage foundation (2018) stated that countries with points above 50 are classified as countries having freedom in economic activity. zhao, madni, anwar, and zahra (2021) stated that when a region in asia has economic freedom, it will encourage markets to function efficiently, thereby increasing trust, especially in companies, reducing uncertainty, and creating high levels of economic growth. in addition, these regions also encourage people to innovate and improve the economy due to low barriers to enter and exit from the market. improving the quality of economic institutions in asia is needed to control economic freedom, especially regulation and efficiency, and provide an ideal environment for investors. nadeem et al. (2019) further stated that south asia is opening up the economy and is continually trying to increase economic freedom among regions in the area. past studies have tried to examine the influence of institutions on economic growth using various measures. nawaz (2015) used indicators from the international country risk guide (icrg), while singh and pradhan (2020) and sabir, latif, qayyum, and abass (2019) used indicators from the world governance indicator (wgi). both studies found that, in general, institutions significantly affect economic growth. other studies have tried to focus on institutions based on types. uddin et al. (2021) focused on three types of institutions: political, economic, and financial institutions. the research is based on aisen and veiga (2013), which analyzed the quality of institutions through economic openness and political instability. meanwhile, haini (2019) divides institutions into political and economic institutions. these studies found that each institution significantly affected economic growth. however, other studies showed different results. aslam (2020) did not find that institutions have a significant effect on economic growth, but the study reverted on the finding after inputting macroeconomic variables such as inflation, economic openness, and human capital. xu et al. (2021) did not find a significant impact of several 50,0 53,0 56,0 59,0 62,0 65,0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 developing countries in asia asia world kharisma, wardhana, & sofyan do institutions cause growth? evidence from asian countries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 55 institutional indicators, namely voice and accountability, regulatory quality, and political stability on economic growth. empirical studies show potential factors affecting the institutional performance of developing countries in asia, such as trade wars, technological advances, and conflicts such as the rohingya and the middle east, which may hamper the economic sector (miklian, 2019; yousif, 2016). thus, research on institutions does not always have a consistent result with different results based on the types of institutions studied. therefore, this study aims to look at the role of political and economic institutions on the economic growth of developing countries in asia. this research contributes important empirical results regarding the effect of institutions and economic growth from developing countries in asia. research method institutions in this research were measured based on political and economic institutions. economic growth is measured using per capita income with a constant value in 2010. this study focuses on developing countries in asia. referring to previous research, developing countries in asia tend to have weak institutional conditions and are prone to rent-seeking practices (khan, 2018). in addition, developing countries were selected as the scope as suggested by doğanay and değer (2021), which says that economic growth in developing countries is highly dependent on the quality of institutions, especially the quality of regulations. the developing asian countries selected in this study were based on the classification of the united nations (2021), which consisted of bahrain, bangladesh, bhutan, brunei darussalam, cambodia, china, fiji, hong kong, india, indonesia, iran, israel, jordan, kiribati, laos, lebanon, malaysia, maldives, mongolia, myanmar, nepal, oman, pakistan, philippines, south korea, saudi arabia, singapore, sri lanka, thailand, turkey, united arab emirates, vanuatu, and vietnam. furthermore, the period from 2009 to 2018 was selected as the research period to identify changes in the quality of institutions when specific phenomena occurred, such as the trade war in 2018, technological progress, the 2016 rohingya conflict, and the middle east conflict. in addition, when analyzing the impact of the 2008 u.s. subprime mortgage crisis, kim, kim, and lee (2015) argued that the spillover effect from this crisis could affect asia, especially concerning dollar liquidity from the foreign exchange market. the economic growth as a dependent variable is measured using the natural logarithm of per capita income based on the us$ 2010 constant prices obtained from the world bank (aslam, 2020). economic institutions are measured using the economic freedom index obtained from the heritage foundation as used in previous research (alhassan & kilishi, 2019; uddin et al., 2021). the economic freedom index has four main pillars: the rule of law, government size, regulatory efficiency, and open market. the overall value of the four pillars is used to determine the market freedom in a country; the greater an kharisma, wardhana, & sofyan do institutions cause growth? evidence from asian countries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 56 individual’s freedom when conducting economic activities, the greater the level of investment, per capita income, and economic growth of a country (the heritage foundation, 2021). meanwhile, political institutions refer to previous research (uddin et al., 2021; benayed, 2020; darsono et al., 2022; mahaini, noordin, & mohamad, 2019) that used political stability and the absence of violence, including violence with political motives and terrorism obtained from the world governance indicator (wgi), to identify political stability (kaufmann, kraay, & mastruzzi, 2010). other variables of economic growth are obtained from the world bank, such as investment using the gross capital formation measure (alexiou, vogiazas, & solovev, 2019). foreign investment is used to measure foreign investment inflow (olaoye & aderajo, 2020). inflation is calculated using the consumer price index (saha & zhang, 2017). finally, population growth is measured using the percentage growth per year (shchegolev & hayat, 2018). the research uses the two-step dynamic panel data of the system of generalized method of moments estimation (sys-gmm). sys-gmm aims to overcome the model’s endogeneity problem and other classical assumption problems such as heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation, especially when the first lag of the dependent variable is included as the independent variable (roodman, 2009). furthermore, this method is suitable for samples larger than the time period (n>t) (blundell & bond, 1998). in addition, the use of dynamic panel data is carried out because current economic growth tends to be influenced by past economic growth (uddin, ali, & masih, 2017). for this reason, it is necessary to add an independent variable in the form of a lag from the dependent variable (yt-1). the use of dependent variable lag as an independent variable can correlate with error so that regression using pooled least squares, random effects, and fixed effects gives inconsistent results (aisen & veiga, 2013). in addition, the use of the cross-section regression method in the growth model (cross-section growth regression) was criticized by (levine & renelt, 2016; anwar, 2018) for the independent variables included in the specification or in other words, the estimated parameter values changed very significantly when one or more variables are entered or removed from the model. this shows the possibility of the model being exposed to the problem of omitted variable bias. according to (blundell & bond, 1998), instrumental variables are used to overcome endogeneity problems by treating the second lag of endogenous variables as instruments, while exogenous variables can use equations at the level as there is no correlation to error. this study refers to uddin et al. (2017) and aisen and veiga (2013), where the second lag of the dependent variable and the independent variable becomes the instrument in the first derivative equation. in comparison, the first lag of the variable is used as an instrument in the equation at the level. then, the level of the exogenous variable can be used as an instrument. furthermore, this research carried out regression by comparing the pooled least squares, random effects, fixed effects, first difference gmm, and system gmm. the use of dynamic panel data where there is a first lag variable from the dependent variable (yt-1) as an independent variable will give biased results if processed using the pooled least square, kharisma, wardhana, & sofyan do institutions cause growth? evidence from asian countries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 57 random effect, and fixed effect method due to autocorrelation between (yt-1) and the unobserved fixed effect (aisen & veiga, 2013; han & phillips, 2006; muhammad, islam, & marashdeh, 2015). thus, the sys-gmm method can avoid autocorrelation and endogeneity problems in the model. in addition, sys-gmm can overcome the problem of weak instruments in the first difference gmm (fd-gmm) estimator (blundell & bond, 1998). therefore, the dynamic panel method approach can be good if it meets the criteria for consistency and instrument validity (sari & cahyadin, 2021). acemoglu (2009) states an endogeneity problem in the relationship between institutions and economic growth. this is explained in research conducted by uddin et al. (2017), where the variables of political stability and the absence of violence have endogeneity problems because political instability will lead to reduced investment activities and hamper economic growth. meanwhile, stunted economic growth can increase political instability, causing the collapse of the government and political unrest. this research model adopts the model from uddin et al. (2021), especially in determining the size of political and economic institutions. however, control variables and sample differences were modified as this study uses annual data from developing countries in asia. thus, the econometric model in this study is as follows: 𝑙𝑛𝑌𝑖𝑡 = 𝛽1𝑙𝑛𝑌𝑡−1 + 𝛽2𝑝𝑜𝑙_𝑖𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽3𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛_𝑖𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽𝑖𝑋𝑖𝑡 + 𝜃𝑡 + 𝛿𝑖 + 𝑢𝑖𝑡 ........ (1) where 𝑙𝑛𝑌 is the logarithm of per capita income, 𝑙𝑛𝑌t-1 is the logarithm of the country’s previous per capita income, 𝑝𝑜𝑙_𝑖𝑛𝑠 is the political stability and the absence of violence as a measure of political institutions, 𝑒𝑐𝑜𝑛_𝑖𝑛𝑠 is the economic freedom index as a measure of economic institutions, 𝑋 is the control variable consisting of investment, foreign investment, inflation, and population growth, δi is country-specific fixed effects, θt is the time fixed effects, and it is country i, year t and uit is the error term. result and discussion table 1 shows that economic growthmeasured by gdp per capitaaverages $11,178.82 per year, with the lowest being $567.90 per year and the highest being $59,260.57 per year. political institutions have an average of -0.25 points, with the lowest score being 2.81 points and the highest being 1.61 points. a negative value indicates that the level of political stability in the asian developing countries is insufficient. economic institutions have an average score of 60.80 points, which indicates that developing countries in asia have an open economy. the lowest score was 36.7 points, and the highest was 90.2 points. investment is measured using a gross capital formation with an average of 29.21%, the lowest figure is 14.12%, and the highest is 69.48%. the foreign investment variable has an average of 5.19%, with the lowest value of -37.15% and the highest of 58.51%. the inflation variable has an average of 4.28%, the lowest value is -3.89%, and the highest is 36.60%. finally, population growth has an average of 1.78%, with the lowest rate of -0.26% and the highest of 11.04%. kharisma, wardhana, & sofyan do institutions cause growth? evidence from asian countries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 58 table 1 descriptive statistics variable mean standard deviation min max gdp per capita 11,178.82 13,406.63 567.90 59,260.57 political institution -0.25 0.98 -2.81 1.61 economic institution 60.80 10.79 36.7 90.2 investment 29.21 8.87 14.12 69.48 foreign investment 5.19 8.24 -37.15 58.51 inflation 4.28 4.37 -3.89 36.60 population growth 1.78 1.49 -0.26 11.04 table 2 estimation results of pls, re, fe, diff-gmm and sys-gmm variable pls random effect fixed effect diff-gmm sys-gmm lny t-1 0.9912*** (0.0023) 0.9864*** (0.0035) 0.9118*** (0.0182) 0.9561*** (0.1271) 0.9618*** (0.0112) political institution 0.0064*** (0.0018) 0.0062* (0.0032) 0.0086 (0.0057) 0.0089 (0.0581) 0.0065 (0.0182) economic institution 0.0002 (0.0003) 0.0004 (0.0003) 0.0014 (0.0005) 0.0053 (0.0029) 0.0042** (0.0016) investment 0.0012*** (0.0001) 0.0015*** (0.0002) 0.0017*** (0.0004) 0.0004 (0.0012) 0.0020** (0.0007) foreign investment 0.0008*** (0.0002) 0.0009*** (0.0002) 0.0007*** (0.0002) 0.0010 (0.0007) 0.0001 (0.0005) inflation -0.0014** (0.0006) -0.0017*** (0.0004) -0.0021*** (0.0006) -0.0016 (0.0023) -0.0066*** (0.0023) population growth -0.0108*** (0.0010) -0.0088*** (0.0014) -0.0081*** (0.0023) -0.0145*** (0.0045) -0.0161*** (0.0027) groups 33 33 instruments 28 25 ar (1) 0.041 0.040 ar (2) 0.071 0.139 hansen j stat. 0.760 0.991 note : () denotes robust standard errors in brackets. *** significant in 1%, ** significant in 5%, * significant in 10%. the second lag is used as an instrument in the first difference equation. the first lag is used as an instrument in the equation at the level (aisen & veiga, 2013; uddin et al., 2017). based on table 2, the economic institutions have a positive and significant influence at a significance level of 5% with a coefficient value of 0.0042. this means that every 1 point increase in the economic institution will increase economic growth by 0.42%, ceteris paribus. this result is in line with previous research, which showed positive and significant economic growth results in south asia (nadeem et al., 2019). another study with similar results was conducted by uddin et al. (2021), using the economic freedom index to measure the economic institution. the security provided by economic institutions in maintaining stability, especially property rights, will increase domestic investment. regulations regarding property rights will encourage companies to research to obtain efficient technology. in addition, with policies regulating property rights, individuals will obtain incentives from investment as new companies will bring forward more efficient technology (acemoglu, 2009). in addition to the property rights policy, economic institutions can open the economy, triggering investment in foreign capital. imtiaz and kharisma, wardhana, & sofyan do institutions cause growth? evidence from asian countries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 59 bashir (2017) stated that economic freedom will ease foreign investors to channel funds into the country with low barriers from the government, especially for entering and exiting the market, reducing transaction costs and information asymmetry in the south asian region. in addition, in order to increase investment, strong economic institutions are needed (ma'ruf, 2010). research on the importance of economic institutions was also stated by wanjuu and le roux (2017) and hussain and haque (2016), where economic institutions have a positive and significant effect on economic growth. political institutions have no significant effect on economic growth. similar results were found in the study of xu et al. (2021) in asia, which found that political stability and the absence of violence had no significant effect on economic growth. he stated that this result occurred from obstacles to institutional performance in asian countries due to the fragile political conditions. similar results were found in the study of gnangoin et al. (2019) in asia. in addition, political institutions have a negative effect, similar to the research of doğanay and değer (2021) and shchegolev and hayat (2018), where this occurs due to the unequal distribution of political power in the institutional structure where one group has greater control and tends to trigger the practice of rent-seeking. another study with negative results was found in zhuo, o, muhammad, and khan (2020). economic growth of the previous year affected the current economic growth positively and significantly at the level of 1% with a coefficient of 0.9618, similar to the research conducted by aslam (2020). the lag coefficient of the dependent variable, which is less than 1 ( |ρ| < 1), indicates that the model is stationary (corlett & aigner, 1972). other studies state that the lag of the dependent variable is significant, indicating that there is a convergence where countries with lower per capita incomes have higher economic growth to catch up with the economic conditions of developed countries that have reached steady-state conditions (haini, 2019; muhammad et al., 2015). as measured by gross capital formation, investment has a positive and significant effect at a significance level of 5% with a coefficient of 0.0020. this means that every 1% increase in investment will increase economic growth by 0.20%, ceteris paribus. these results follow the research conducted by alexiou et al. (2019) and shchegolev and hayat (2018) and shchegolev and hayat (2018) where the accumulation of physical capital will increase economic growth. in addition, research by uddin et al. (2021) in developing countries also found a positive and significant effect. mankiw (2010) explains this through the production function where physical capital accumulation will encourage economic growth. meanwhile, no significant effect was found on the foreign investment variable. these results are in line with the research of uddin and masih (2016), rahman, rana, and barua, (2019), and olaoye and aderajo, (2020), where various factors such as unstable political conditions, the inefficiency of institutional performance and lack of property rights protection will prevent the entry of foreign capital. in addition, incoming foreign capital cannot be adequately utilized, especially in developing the productive sector. kharisma, wardhana, & sofyan do institutions cause growth? evidence from asian countries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 60 inflation has a negative and significant effect with a significance level of 1% with a coefficient of 0.0066. this means that every 1% increase in inflation will reduce economic growth by 0.66%, ceteris paribus. similar results were obtained in the research of aisen and veiga (2013) and muhammad et al. (2015), where inflation will hamper economic growth. imam and kpodar (2016) found similar results; high inflation results in price changes. if it changes erratically, it will reduce efficiency and productivity levels. mankiw (2010) further states that inflation levels can reduce people’s purchasing power, thus reducing consumption levels and ultimately hampering economic growth. population growth has a negative and significant effect on economic growth at a significance level of 1% with a coefficient of 0.0161. that means that a 1% increase in economic growth will reduce economic growth by 1.61%, ceteris paribus. similar results were obtained in the research of aisen and veiga (2013), zghidi, mohamed sghaier, and abida (2016), and aslam (2020), where population growth tends to reduce per capita income. this follows solow’s theory, where population growth will reduce output and per capita income (mankiw, 2010). finally, there was no significant effect on foreign investment similar to the research of uddin and masih (2016), rahman et al. (2019) and olaoye and aderajo (2020), where various factors such as unstable political conditions, inefficiency of institutional performance and lack of property rights protection will prevent the entry of foreign capital. in addition, the incoming foreign capital cannot be adequately utilized, especially in developing the productive sector. robustness check this research also examines the consistency (robustness check) of the key variables, namely the political and economic institutions. table 3 estimation results of two-step dynamic panel of system gmm estimation variable sys-gmm (1) (2) ln (gdp per kapita t-1) 0.9402*** (0.0196) 0.9618*** (0.0112) political institution 0.0137 (0.0227) 0.0065 (0.0182) economic institution 0.0045* (0.0026) 0.0042** (0.0016) investment 0.0020** (0.0007) foreign investment 0.0001 (0.0005) inflation 0.0066*** (0.0023) population growth 0.0161*** (0.0027) note : () denotes robust standard errors in brackets.*** significant in 1%, ** significant in 5%, * significant in 10%. the second lag is used as an instrument in the first difference equation. the first lag is used as an instrument in the equation at the level (aisen & veiga, 2013; uddin et al., 2017). kharisma, wardhana, & sofyan do institutions cause growth? evidence from asian countries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 61 the test compares two regression models in the system gmm method. the first model does not have control variables, and the second model has control variables. table 3 shows that the economic institution consistently influences economic growth positively and significantly, both before adding the control variable and after adding the control variable. conclusion this study provides an empirical contribution to the ongoing discussion of the relationship of institutional influence and economic growth of developing countries in asia. this research concluded that the quality of the economic institution has a positive and significant effect on economic growth in asia. economic freedom provides convenience, especially when entering and exiting the marketthus increasing the interest of investors towards the countries. this economic freedom is supported by property rights policies that can guarantee investors’ assets, triggering technological progress and increasing human capital. meanwhile, political institutions have no significant effect on economic growth. this happens because of the unequal distribution of political power in the institutional structure where one group has control and tends to trigger the practice of rent-seeking. this study utilized secondary data during 2009-2018. based on the estimation results and robustness test using the gmm system, the economic institutional variables are significant, except for political institutions. the dynamic panel method with the arellanobond gmm approach can be suitable if it meets the criteria for consistency and instrument validity. finally, the combination of these policies will boost domestic productivity, followed by an increase in economic growth. meanwhile, this study did not find a significant influence from political institutions, which may happen if political power is not well distributed and concentrated in one group; thus, political stability will be followed by increased rentseeking practices. however, this study is limited by not having exclusive access to specific institutional indicators at certain institutions, especially when determining political institutions with diverse sizes, methods and sources. various studies have only looked at the influence of institutions in general. as summarised, economic institutions have a significant effect on economic growth as it assists in maintaining and controlling the activities of emerging markets in asia. good institutions are necessary to control fraud in market activities such as monopolistic practices and rent-seeking. in addition, economic freedom is an essential factor in attracting investment into the country to have a spillover effect on technological developments. kharisma, wardhana, & sofyan do institutions cause growth? evidence from asian countries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 62 references acemoglu, d. 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(2019). ‘chalking up the benefits' project: the economic valuation of ecosystem services in lewes, east sussex, england. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 20(1), 27-48 article history received: january 2019 accepted: april 2019 http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp wulandari ‘chalking up the benefits' project: the economic valuation of ecosystem services… jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 28 communicate varying parties about the inclusiveness of the conservation world (mccauley, 2006) – where emanating a sense of stewardship for the nature is necessary. the attracted extension of this concept is inadvertently shaped by interwoven ‘the objectification of the natural world’ (rogers, 1998). the logic roots have framed the environmental degradation as a ‘market failure’ (gómez-baggethun and ruiz-pérez, 2011). this expansion is the domains of the environmental economics which have devoted to the methods of valuing the natural world. some scholars agree that this concept is a way forward for conservation due to the crisis in the traditional one. it involves wider actors to define the suitable economy for the environmental situation. the utilitarian framing, for example, has taken a part into this concept by the ‘use values’ in measuring the social benefits of ecosystem functioning which has widely attracted the western policy maker (westman, 1977). some others, however, conversely decide that this concept is another potential tragedy in the conservation history. the ‘metaphor of nature as a stock that provides a flow of services is insufficient for the future of the environment’ (norgaard, 2010, p.1219). this could be a disruption in the policy arena which use the available room to maneuver. ecosystems, in this study, define as natural benefits from multiple resources rather than a single resource such as fish or tree (chapin, et. al., 2009). historical speaking, giving the voice for the voiceless, such as the term ‘services’ for the natural world, deserve to be more closely studied. the ‘services’ has evolved into the unprecedented monetary value for the prior non-marketed environment – see example for carbon trading (carton, 2014). even though the environmental protection needs to control wisely the quantity of consumption on the natural world, doubt of the kind protection has come since the limit of ecosystems is indefinite. ‘the focus on economic valuation of the es has contributed to attract political support for conservation, but also to promote the commodification of the ecosystem functions’ (gómez-baggethun, et. al., 2010). it unfold the question as what caroline lucas, mp, stated in a debate ‘gentleman agree that we need very strong safeguards including in planning system, to ensure that by putting a pound sign on priceless ecosystems such as ancient woodlands we do not inadvertently open the door to their destruction?’ (house of commons hansard debates for 21 oct 2013). this question shows the political attention to be ‘a sign of commodification process’ as a dilemma in the environmental policy in the uk. some literature, that seems promote the reconciliation of the theory and practice, has involved the distribution and efficiency aspect into the schemes using the es concept. muradian, et. al. (2010) explain the insight to encourage the knowledge about the es as the purpose to avoid commodification agenda in the ‘steward earns principle’ policy which is directly proportionated with the importance of economic incentives. in doing so, obstacles exist due to the complexity of the ecological and economic field. it seemingly needs necessary innovations to tackle the complexities in the provision (vatn, 2010). the detail of the schemes draws in the institutional settings related to social embeddedness and legitimation of the community empowerment. the setup, eventually, may create the wulandari ‘chalking up the benefits' project: the economic valuation of ecosystem services… jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 29 high ‘transaction cost’ as there is the need to sustain the payment for ‘the services providers’. this study, therefore, is particularly interested in how the policy arena can further develop and strengthen the es concept as a discourse at the uk. it is important since this country is at the second place after the us which have contributed based on the affiliations of the author to the 7985 articles at scopus that embrace the related concept (chaudhary, et.al., 2015, p.29). the analysis of the discourse will focus on the institutionalization process of the es concept using a time frame from the prior review to enable recognition of social and political issues (ibid; den besten, et. al., 2014). the analysis, however, involves aspects from the controversy on economic valuation of es. the political critiques will be presented as the substantial part. the aspects are ‘particular institutional setup and expansion of pricing into previously non-marketed areas of the environment’ (gómez-baggethun and ruiz-pérez, 2011, p.613). based on the collected evidences, i conclude a similar pattern of the institutional settings towards the environmental protections in between changes related to following: 1) agricultural pressures, and 2) urban pressures. the following sections provide the incorporation of the es concept in terms of the ‘neoliberal turn’ events in the societal interactions. firstly, it emerged on the agricultural policy in the uk which has transformed the state-supported policy aep into the ‘pes talk’ approach (porter et. al., 2014). secondly, the innovation on the institutional setup on the pes preference for results-oriented payments in policy documents such as the natural environment white paper, defra 2011 (lockhart, 2015). lewes ‘town to down’ initiative assessing the value of es to local communities is the specific case in this study of the white paper implementation. a documented film provided by the cub project from related web archives will be provided in transcriptions to review the potential benefit for the housing builders through the initiatives of the environmental protections. finally, i argue that the discourse of es using economic valuation process has also shaped by the elite capture. research method implementing the es concept has transformed as an ambivalence in the conservation world. armsworth, et. al., (2007, p.1384) highlight preliminary questions for the research plan implementing the concept such as ‘what decisions regarding the es is the science intended to inform? what opportunities are available to change the provision and consumption of those services?’ they assert, as the respond, the es science should improve the insight about the fundamental links between the natural world and human well-being. early 1980s was the time where the environmental issues academically received attention and the term of es was first used (chaudhary, et. al., 2015). specifically, the focus has intertwined with the landscape changes. those are not only an anthropogenic pressure but also the growing notion into something that related to ‘the process of wealth creation wulandari ‘chalking up the benefits' project: the economic valuation of ecosystem services… jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 30 factors economically called natural capital and social capital (costanza, 2003). the economic logics stated those two types of capital as the production factors. ‘a core idea behind markets is to establish competition among agents to foster efficiency’ (vatn, 2010, p.1246). whilst, the role of the communities’ governance provides the solution to reduce the transaction cost ‘by increasing the necessary trust and engagement into the community’ (vatn, 2010, p.1250; vatn, 2002). it is today that the environmental protection has mainly one focus in terms of the direction of development. sharp and richardson (2001) mention, as a discourse in the environmental policy approach, it would bring about the social change notion where institutional structures and communication as the causal factors. the jargon bioregionalism from the deep ecologist show the same pattern in the needing to engage people into the new way of living. ‘this is the idea of people living in harmony with the land and the seasons’ (chapin, et. al. 2009). this is a principle for sustainable society that has the similar requirement with the notion of the es concept. even though there is a different part of those practical movements. es concept which involve a ‘cosmetic solution’ has promoted a collaboration within actors until the global scale; bioregionalism or the dark green one in the context of the lifestyle, however, has promoted the decentralization mode where ‘small is beautiful’. the effort in this study is more to analyze the elite capture as the social and political issues at the policy arena mentioned by the independent media in the uk. those are restricted only to the mode of how political arena tackle both to the hunger and living – food and housing necessities –, and the environmental protection. the analysis adapts to use discourse-centered analysis using institutional time frame from the prior review (chaudhary, et. al., 2015; den besten, et. al., 2014). the general time frame of the growing shape of the es concept are as followed (table 1). table 1 the evolution of es concept sources: chaudhary, et. al., 2015; den besten, et. al., 2014; modified year events evolution concept pre-1997 early academic conceptions of es 1997 when pes was first adopted as a national scale policy in costa rica expanding economic and policy interest in es 2001 the launch of mea uptake of es concept by global actors 2005 the release of mea synthesis report global reporting on ecosystem services 2010 when agreement on ipbes was reached, followed by it establishment in 2012 institutionalisation of an intergovernmental body on biodiversity and es wulandari ‘chalking up the benefits' project: the economic valuation of ecosystem services… jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 31 the doubt is about the instruments of power upon the pricing notions of the natural resources arising from the reflection towards sustainable society. literally, ‘dark green movements’ have the goal to be independent from a mode of centralized authority such as ‘a legislative framework giving access for the government to the continuing domestic sphere’ (chapin, et. al. 2009). but the economic valuation of the es has promoted access to a global scale. it configures the contrast in the expanding trend from the initial purpose of the es concept. the following sections will put more effort to emphasizes correlated events within the societal interactions in the history and contemporary. result and discussion state-supported for centralized authorities and trade impetus the war world ii is the deadliest tragedy in the humanitarian history. it followed by the remarkable cooperation regarding the negotiations of the earlier european integration during the cold war. the geopolitical rearrangements of the european dynamics were fraught with the decades of diplomacy (ludlow, 2005). the contemporary european history cover the questions ranging from britain’s foreign policy first attempts to engage with the six in early eec, to american’s hegemony towards the goal of european political union, elaborating via the first european treaties and the initiation of cap. the history of earlier european integration charles de gaulle, was adopted the first veto in the rueff plan and the fta for stabilizing the french economy (lynch, 2000). the december 1958, renewing protection and foreign indebtedness had have facilitated the french economy in the eec and the gatt – it was the time where the british proposed to set up fta. the french’s failure to tackling the deficit in the balance of payment has stated as the reason behind the british political economy ‘to keep france out of the common market’ made the fta seems more attractive (ibid, p.115). at that time, both are having different imperial preferences: french within the physiocrat belief retained the agriculture products engagement for the more specific market area; england disagreed with the agriculture part and proposed wider zone for the international trade. changes in commercial policy was what a country necessary do in the name of security (schenk, 2002). thus, in between the 1955 and 1963, trade agendas have become the impetus of the economic integration probably the most remarkable one. the fundamental policy reversal contains the negotiation ‘from britain’s refusal to take part in the common market project launched by the six of the ecsc at the messina conference to prime minister harold macmillan’s effort to negotiate entry into the eec’ (schaad, 1998, p.39). it was due to the growing continental market situation that could endanger the britain economic situation for being outside the european market. this reversal decision, moreover, involved its alliances with the united states and west german. wulandari ‘chalking up the benefits' project: the economic valuation of ecosystem services… jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 32 beyond the reversal policy from french and britain, the aimed at promoting french agriculture exports had been the french’s motivation in rejecting the fta which was fewer prospects in agricultural exports than the eec’s common market (warlouzet, 2011). moravcsik (2000, p.27) writes de gaulle’s remark about the european identity, ‘political will is the spirit behind economic unification’, purposing to limit the eec member only for the six. toward this gaulle’s proposal, american government observers realized that these political plans for western europe were aimed against us influence ‘on the continent and in the atlantic alliance’ (giauque, 2000, p. 108). the fta once facing the failure in the 1956 – 1958, this failure led the common market of the eec to surpass the fta’s technical and political aspects including the integration of cooperation in the agricultural sector. mobility towards polarity the historical events bring the market impetus within the growing of the environmental politics. it has ironical events which embedded the powerful hegemony of the global ‘polarity’ (patel, 2013, p. 650). a history of the european integration has formed through the political struggles in between hegemonic forces from the united states and the soviet union. the european union thence is the formulation in creating the new force outside those two mentioned (giauque, 2000). those such a competition have contributed into the new institutional setup during a heated international affairs. in the 1982, ‘european conference of postal and telecommunications administrations (cept) has become the postage stamps on a european theme at the twenty-fifth anniversary of the treaties of rome commemoration’ (patel, 2013, p. 649). historical archive represented this ironic twisted momentum highlighting a non-governmental organization movement to step in telecommunications strategy. it is the ‘sectors requiring urgent action’ prior to the treaties of rome where the six disagreed. although the cept had a position of outside the treaties of rome, several states member would facilitate it. it came up into the explanation why dutch, french, and italian stamps looked quite different, whilst, the implementation of the cept encompassed a wider range of states member than the european communities (ec). in 1989 to 1991 (post-cold-war period), gaullist vision for the more autonomous from the us’s influence of western europe has provoked the emergence of the european identity – where europeans applied to the civilization at the same continent. ‘the failure of the confederation project reflected the at least partial, and temporary, failure of the vision of european architecture which mitterrand, after de gaulle, had tried to promote’ (bozo, 2008, p.412). it had seen in 1988. during the period of mitterand as the french president, moscow visit on 25th november clearly was the strategy to attach with gorbachev’s ‘common home’. the visit was beyond the need for more pragmatic and concrete cooperation in the european, naturally transcend the east-west's borders. it notes the environmental and technological exchanges associated with the certain aspects of the soviet union ‘eureka’ project as the main consent towards the futuristic projection. wulandari ‘chalking up the benefits' project: the economic valuation of ecosystem services… jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 33 the challenge has come across the unrested interconnections. the ‘theme of europe is so ideologically plastic that it can fit effortlessly into the discourse of any national political party’ (bruneteau, 2000, p.257). therefore, an international and regional organization might be ‘established to seek solutions no other form of institutional setting provides’ (patel, 2013, p.670). the adjustment toward the environmental protecting act, however, still has the possible influence towards the solution of this global ‘polarity’. common agricultural policy the history has captured the order onto the agricultural reform coming from the controversial arrangements. the cap assertion has also attributed to changes as the negotiations provides power and control through the european budget (jackson, 1993). the european integration should be a ‘discursive’ which ‘reminds the heterogeneous and unequal encounters can lead to new arrangements of culture and power’ (tsing, 2005, p.5). tsing’s analogy demonstrates that the inter-connected form can be described as the roads image to conceptualize how the global collaboration works. roads in this image explain of how efficient and easy the pathway is giving to the motion, but in doing so they are also the limit of where is the movement goes. cap ‘has been the european union’s most expensive integration consuming a substantial proportion of the eu budget’ (ludlow, 2005, p.347). the tariff war combined in this earlier european integration was one reaction from britain government towards the french gaullist official’s hostility in 1958 to 1969 (warlouzet, 2011, p.431 – 433). the competition proposing the common market and the fta schemes was the circumstances attributing to the time when cap was born (warlouzet, 2011; lynch, 2000). the political strategy made eec membership for the uk had to wait for the common market project of the six including the cap well-established (schaad, 1998). the cap’s policy specifically was born in the midst the dynamics of economic integration of the eec. ludlow (2005) starts his attention to the political analysis with one of the extended political science of the european union, andrew moravscik. the analysis highlighted the political situation during the cold war studies which attract vast attention from the historian responds. as what moravcsik (2000) writes, profound origins of the cap at the early eec is where the political organization thrived in creating the new single identity through the european union. the origin of the constitutional support for this policy could be summarized in the foundations of european law (de-smedt, 2012). in 1950 – 1957, those dynamics in laying the foundations contain a strict and literal sense based on the treaties of rome interpretation from the ecj. those senses come from the ambiguous cases in using the extension of the national sovereignty. from 1958 to 1968, ‘despite the vagueness of the treaties’ commitment to an agricultural policy and the unpromising precedents of earlier attempts to integrate europe’s agriculture, there are political factors that made the cap’s birth possible’ (ludlow, 2005, p. 347). cap is part of the power bargain in the history for the agricultural sector. the december 1964, the level of cereal price has become the wulandari ‘chalking up the benefits' project: the economic valuation of ecosystem services… jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 34 suggestion from the commission remarked on the harmonizing of the ‘common price system which vital to the operation of the cap’ (ibid, p.351). as outlined in article 39, cap was ‘to increase agricultural productivity by promoting technical progress and ensuring the rational development of agricultural production and optimum utilization of the factors of production, in particular labor’ (the treaty of rome, 1957). the policy was to give the incentive for the farmers/landowners who were needed by the civilization to produce adequate livestock for the ‘alarming rate numbers of the human population’ (dobbs and pretty, 2008). but critiques existed in the national scale afterwards. the discursive today and historical analysis the current structure of farm subsidies epitomizes the british government’s defining project: capitalism for the poor and socialism for the rich (monbiot, 2013). farming has also produced the ecosystem functioning in terms of the ‘conventional services’ providing by the natural world to promote food industrialization. the wealthy farmers gradually has the privilege to get the subsidies. trade and environmental protections have conflicted in ‘the moral argument that no one should go hungry’ (constanza, 2003). elite capture, in farming context, has obviously shape the political alignment. cap is the power bargain that promote the control of hegemony through the recent controversial subsidy for farming. the history has highlighted that uk has been excluded at the initiation of the cap pertaining to the avoidance from the us hegemony on the early european integration (giauque, 2000, p. 108). therefore, the domination of the es concept as a discourse at the us and uk (chaudhary, et. al., 2015) has probably the continuation on the global polarity. the growing market-supported on the es concept such as pes could be a response to the disruption on the environmental situation. but it should not separated from an insight of the production control in the global scale. agricultural pressures and pes farming is for sale and trade purposes. recently, cap is one part of policy to understand the pes as the ‘neoliberalism challenges’ on the aep which is the state-supported on environmental protection due to the disruption on the farming (dobbs and pretty, 2008). in terms of the uk member status at the eu, the cap has been the legacy of the generalization efforts end up with the making of the friction juxtaposing the insight from ‘the global connection’ (tsing, 2005). the aep, however, has seen as the traditionally more state-centered while the ‘pes talk’ has opened the access of ‘adaptive opportunities’ for private sector in the policy communities for the environmental protections (ibid). it involves the wide spread notion on the sustainable society. the events on the societal interactions focus on the ‘production metaphor’ and the future of cap which implies the necessary attention beyond the limitation from the natural world. the conservationist has identified that if human dependence (in the production wulandari ‘chalking up the benefits' project: the economic valuation of ecosystem services… jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 35 activities) on nature ‘becomes widely recognized, society will demand greater environmental stewardship’ (armsworth, et. al., 2007, p.1383). this is to say where the ambivalences on the conservation world have the effect on the es concept. meanwhile, environmental issues in the political arena has also been an idea since the growing threat of nuclear war (chapin, et. al. 2009). policy arena has been attracted to the use of environmental issues in a political approach. leaving behind the agricultural intensification ‘in the eu, the driving force behind agricultural intensification has been the cap, which simultaneously supports greater productivity and inhibits agricultural extensification’ (donald, et. al., 2002, p.167). they noted that the cap implicitly provokes the livestock’s providers in industrial scale within the two ways to protect the member states’ producers. firstly, market intervention: the eu keep the international trade of the agricultural product’s prices high and stable. the eu has the role as the buyer in the market due to this function. secondly, market stabilizer: the eu also buy the excess of production. these mechanisms increase the burden on the eu budget for the storage cost until the products competitively sell on the global market. to support the operation, the less international trade barriers need to be certain and levy on cheaper imports. the cap’s continuation faces new stage that is about tackling the environmental impact caused by the industrial agriculture. it has provided the farmers in the member states with the increasing income; access to the most modern agricultural technology; and received indirectly greater benefit from the raising of land value since there are also increasing demand on it (donald, et. al., 2002). it brings the root of history from the era feudalism to capitalism in ‘the deepening rupture in the nutrient cycling’ (moore, 2000, p.123). the opportunity from the agri-food exports, moreover, still guarantees the future profit. from the monitoring agri-food trade of european commission (2017) noted, ‘the monthly value of eu agri-food’s exports rebounded in may 2017 and reached a value of eur 11.5 billion, which is eur 923 million (+9%) higher than in may 2016, and 15% higher than the 4-year average’. this statistical number in other words show that agricultural industries still have wide opportunities to keep its operation in the international trade. on contrast, those livestock sectors with the level of industrial scale is still socio-political compelling despite there is the need for the ‘urgent action’ in 2006 for the environmental issues which is explained by the lead initiative in the landmark report livestock’s long shadow. these sectors are important since ‘it accounts 40 percent of agricultural gdp and employs 1.3 billion people’ (steinfeld, et. al., 2006, p. xx). it remains the political inertia despite the structural changes (in the degradation way), for instances, geographical changes (‘bad’ environmental quality) and social exclusion of the smallholder farmers in the farming subsidy’s schemes. some believe that it has increasingly necessary to leave behind the intensification practice. plerson in huffpost uk, for instance, concludes that the ‘industrial agriculture’ as the ‘failing industry’. the suggestion is that the government need to stop supporting it; and need to start making it greener. the fact shows that the environmental impact from wulandari ‘chalking up the benefits' project: the economic valuation of ecosystem services… jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 36 animal’s agriculture is still being ignored as ‘the paris agreement, signed by 196 countries, omitted any mention of livestock, agriculture or animals across its 31 pages’ (plerson, 2017). there are consequences from the such farming practices. some publications revealed the evidences to criticize the effect from the prior food cycle. it might be similar to the message from the un and ipes food report, the ‘world needs to move away from the industrial agriculture to avoid ecological, social and human health crises’ (plerson, 2017). whilst, the health issues of the food industry also support the raising awareness about the farming in industrial scale issues (figure 1). the more elaborate solution, however, will inadvertently raise the question about how to create the political incentives towards the proposed shifting onto the less intensification agricultural system. this could be the challenges of the political inertia in terms of the food industry. sullivan (2012, p.199) mentions, ‘a key feature of the contemporary capitalism includes the penetration of finance into everyday life’. it mentioned that the ‘economic profit and political utility’ has highlighted the paradox in the financialization process in the conservation world. this could be an incursion towards the increasing need for the healthy environment. figure 1 a timeline of disease outbreaks in highly specialized of farming’s system source: ipes food (2016, p.3) insufficiency of the conventional policy on agri-food aep have been introduced as the integration of environmental concerns in the agricultural policy since the 1992, while the global market practice in the food production keep continuing. the ‘potential exists to restructure eu support for agriculture to decouple payments from productivity and reward farmers for making environmental improvements to their land’ (donald, et. al., 2002, p.167). eventually, changes are provoking another type of financial scheme through the aep to protect the environment, where most of the farmers need better contacts with local conservation organizations – in order to participate (in the south east england case) (lobley and potter, 1998). wulandari ‘chalking up the benefits' project: the economic valuation of ecosystem services… jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 37 the doubt has particularly rised into the political maneuver which defines the value of es as an economic framing stage on the commodification process. the sense of ‘bringing together the sustainability’ has been probably still in the range of the neoliberal system which ‘based on the ideas of reducing the power, reach and interference of government, and giving industry greater freedom and less red tape’ (brockington, duffy and igoe, 2008, p.1). the industrial agriculture thrives followed by the green ‘credentials’ to promote the farming practices with the more adaptable to the higher level of the environmental stress (see e.g.: natural england, 2008; chaplin, et.al, 2017). ‘a cosmetic solution’ has involved wide range of changes in economic production to bridging the gap in between the economic growth and environmental protections. the today’s subsidy budget for the farming schemes seems problematic. there are still hope to find ‘reasonable’ price for the cereals and cereal products in the supermarket while confronting the failure of the ethics in providing the outcomes from the natural world. cereals ‘represents one of the most profound anthropogenic changes to europe’s landscape and wildlife habitat, which encourages the pandemic effects of agricultural intensification that have been demonstrated on bird declining population’ (donald, et. al.,2002, p. 168 – 169). the review is that the less support for the intensification of the farming practice, the more socioeconomic and socio-ecological benefits would arise – which can support the eu enlargement. the ‘ecosystem functioning’ has been the reason for the policy makers to allocate the budget for the conservation world. the extinction of one specific animal or plant that reduce the diversity in the natural world has signalized the ecosystem functioning at the alarming rate (naem, et. al, 1999). it probably does matter to pay attention to the ecosystem services afterwards – ‘the benefit that human gets from the ecosystem functioning’ (ma, 2005). aep, the state-supported projects for the environmental protections, has a gradual changed its approach. pes influence on the policy arena some of the conservation’s practitioners have ignored the directions and procedures of the environmental improvement including the ethics and aesthetics in conservations (mccauley, 2006). incentives are probably still focused on the income values through the financial scheme in preserving the ecosystems; which ignore the animal rights (af news agency, 2016); encourage the overgrazing (theobald, 2000); promote ‘commodity fetishism’ through the payment for ecosystem services agenda. kosoy and corbera (2010, p.1234) suggests, this fetishistic of pes implicates ‘on the way nature is perceived, humannature interactions are constructed through monetary values and how unequal social relations are reproduced’. it is as encapsulated on the following: swanbourne home farms, run in partnership between the minister’s in-laws, baron and baroness cottesloc, brother-in-law thomas, and cousin richard brooks, has been given € 1,517,535 over a 10-year period in funding from the eu. it has also been the recipient of grants understood to be worth tens of thousands of pounds from natural england (muir, 2013). wulandari ‘chalking up the benefits' project: the economic valuation of ecosystem services… jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 38 the media gives the data in the field of politics that there is a ‘double counting on the funding for environmental protection (gómez-baggethun and ruiz-pérez, 2011). it is an important problem in the body of the bureaucracy called the least priority of the environmental policies for the sake of nature. it is imperative to provide the collection of the emerging discourses from the environmental justice provision in the sustainable development project (taylor, 2000; agyeman, 2001, 2002; agyeman and evans, 2004; agyeman, bullard, and evans, 2010). it revealed the problem of injustice within the societal interaction. it has introduced the uk defra’s ecosystem approach action plan (defra, 2011) as the ‘introduction of market logic into aep’. the meanings actors attach to it is quite broad involving farming group and environmental ngos. pes approach has the prominence effects on the aep. the efforts to decoupling the green payments from the agricultural sector also can be seen through the defra white paper on the natural environment (defra, 2011). it is one of the commitments in the body of government to enhance greater business involvement in es commissioning and funding with ‘proof of concept’ role. the focus of the green payment is now progressing to another sector outside the agricultural pressure. decoupling green payment from farming: urban pressure and pes another highlighted change in this study is the urban pressures. the cub project (http://www.lewes-eco-nomics.org/projects/cub/) regarding the use of es concept in the effort has setted up to raise the awareness for the valuing the natural capital process using the societal perspectives. it is one of local project arising from the defra white paper. it also has the linkage to the neighborhood plan (http://www.lewes4all.uk/) – the local government led to the future of the county area [transcription: 205]. this section examines beyond the more social inclusion process thrives in the way of ‘the nature gain going local workshop process’ [transcription:63]. the political aspects has the intersectional structure through the wider business involvement from defra and the local development goals through the housing crisis in the lewes area. the use of es concept in the local action has seemingly created the down-top policy mechanism related to the socioecological relationship in the protected area, south down national park. it is the provision on the economic values of the nature based on the people perspective in line with the framework ‘‘proof of concept’ role. the evidence to show ‘how valuable these environmental services are to people because the scarce public budget must be spent on their protection’ (mendelsohn and olmstead, 2009, p.328). but the limited continuation of the defra white paper is exist, for instances, the biodiversity offsetting in the uk context which more to fulfil the administrative duty (lockhart, 2015). the housing builders, from that case, has another role to get the benefit from the such policy. wulandari ‘chalking up the benefits' project: the economic valuation of ecosystem services… jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 39 lewes and the spirit of independence lewes is the county area that serves a rural area, manufacturing towns and farming communities situated in a protected area of the south downs national park. it is the area that valuable to attract the tourism business (woodland and acott, 2007), such as, a national park with a strong recreational atmosphere; river ouse commemorating virginia woolf; seaside of the potential tourism area; and the attractive bonfire tradition. the heritage and modernism values fuse into this commendable land (the welcoming atmosphere characterized by industrialization, rapid social change, urbanization and advance in socio-ecological science with skeptical critiques to the newcomer of the materialist culture). “we will not be druv!” is ‘a local dialect which asserts that sussex people have minds of their own, and cannot be forced against their will’ (simpson and speake, 2009). ‘druv’ is a dialect variant of drove (ibid). ‘the battle of lewes between king henry iii and the barons forms part of the town’s proud story of its role in the development of democracy’ (lewes town council, 2017, p.10). this history of the tradition of independence in the lewes area could point out the society’s character which showing the enthusiasm to speak ‘this is what we want’ [transcription: 204]. lewes has the remarkable movements toward their local environment in terms of the support from its people. for example, the representation for its efforts in raising the awareness on the impact of the global market for food into the society is captured in the lewes pound movement. it is one of influential movement that becomes the root of the cub project initiation under the umbrella the transition town lewes (ttl) (https://www.transitiontownlewes.org). the dedication from the lewes pound to the practical context might be radical in the socio-economical dimension confronting the pressure on consumers’ dependency on the global market of food. it highlights the attention to the local economy which brought the local currencies (https://www.thelewespound.org/) idea to boost local spending on the local economy, helps cut co2 emissions by changing the consumption pattern such as from global product into local product which were approved by dozen of environmental activists in the lewes (bates, 2008). ‘findings also suggest that complementary currencies can be an effective tool for building resilience and aiding the transition towards more sustainable systems of provision and consumption’ (graugaard, 2012, p.258). from the lewes pound practice, we can determine the spirit of independence for the lewes society to face the climate change and peak oil situation. maintaining the monetary strategy, the lewes pound collaborates with not-for-profit social enterprises, such as common cause co-operative (http://www.commoncause.org.uk) established in 1991 and (http://lewesfoodmarket.co.uk/) established in 2010. strategies are involved with the encouragement for the society to enjoy the nature through food growing projects and supporting the local food from the local economy in sussex. at this point, it is necessary to bring the collection in the practical context of the local societal dynamic within the revolution of the es concept. wulandari ‘chalking up the benefits' project: the economic valuation of ecosystem services… jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 40 the cub: nature’s benefit and social inclusion the lewes pound, with the local economic context, has provoked the continuation of the social interactions within the cub, a project at a community group namely lewes and ouse valley economics group. on 27 april 2011, the local group (operates under the umbrella of ttl) successfully held a workshop discussing ‘what benefit we get in the local community from the local environment, how local enterprises use those es and how to make the communities more resilience’ [transcription: 91 – 95]. thus, valuing the economic measurement for nature is the part of the workshop discussion. they use the map to visualize the place and emerge the description of their experience of nature’s benefit they get from a certain area [transcription: 96 – 103]. the local communities has virtually shown the enthusiastic atmosphere. the importance of the project has also been described in the news. the lewes pound in here has the role for investment in the understanding of the local es (transition town lewes, 2011). it can be a tenacious construction on the interdependency among the local communities based on the prior coordination in raising the awareness of the climate change and the local economy using complementary currency. the lewes pound articulates the local pride to alter the independence culture of the lewes society. it exemplify that the social capital has already existed within the community. the cub project provides the interactive discussion which gives the lewes pound a position as the medium for ‘capacity to aspire’ (appadurai, 2004). this local group project adopts the term ‘naturegain’ in their introduction rather than what scientists’ usually define as ‘ecosystem services’. the orientation to the future is to find the most important natural area in the lewes for the society, and make a partnership with the local organization to understand the services that provided by the ecosystem function. since the existing local activities consisting of environmental campaigners, the ability of the local community groups appealing to meet the idea of natural environmental stewards need the encouragement to ‘value their surroundings’ (brockington, duffy and igoe, 2008, p.87). in the conservation world, this partnership is never straightforward. there are two points attached from the video documentation as the cub’s final outputs to explain the partnership with the local authorities, lewes neighborhood plan steering group – in a proposed plan for the local authorities using the ecosystem services approach (tingle, 2015). firstly, local group maintain ‘the ecosystem services going local workshop’ to engage the local community groups ‘to put themselves into the landscape and experience the benefit that ecosystem provide’. “here was a contradiction: high profile publicized ‘participation processes’ on the one hand, vertical control over project delivery on the other’ (mosse, 2004, p.655)”. however, it approximately took time for four years since the first workshop exist (april 27th, 2011) until the documented video published (june 24th, 2015). secondly, the cub purpose the inter-social interaction to provide a definition of how the human life along with the lewes’ landscapes both the land use and the land management. wulandari ‘chalking up the benefits' project: the economic valuation of ecosystem services… jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 41 the messages from this workshop are to give people the space to speak, mapping their knowledge about the environment and documented it as the output. what we can see the landscape we are living is a life with always connections, we value map connections with four different enterprises. if you imagine every enterprise, every household. this entire map would be covered in our strength. we are living within those connections. here we are all these people up here while this stuff is going on. this is happening around, it is not just abstract concept ecosystem services’ report from the un. this is stuff going on as we speak outside this door, inside this room [transcription: 177 – 185]. with the increase of the local pride, the cub has the role giving the dialogue for the discourses in the socio-ecological relationship, how the society feels about their landscape. in this case, the ecosystem services framework legitimates the human dependence on the ecosystems functioning where measuring the nature value is one of the keys for the policy makers in making the decision (hirons, comberti and dunford, 2016). ecosystem services concept is the lexicon in this action through the pedagogical procedure. it has the plan to continue in bob project, but it has not shown until years after the plan. ecosystem services concept and multiple partnership of the cub project the cub project has involved in a partnership of the south down way ahead nature improvement area funded by defra via natural england. ‘conservative-liberal democrat coalition government proposed the natural environment white paper in 2011’ (lockhart, 2015, p.337). it has related to the ambitious strategy for biodiversity 2020 (defra, 2011; 2013). the nature improvement areas is ‘the first natural environment white paper in nearly 20 years’ (vidal, 2011). it was quite attracting where around 15,000 people and organizations asked about this white paper to the governmental body. the another partnership in the cub project has shown the anthropogenic pressures still have a role in a local movement using the ecosystem services concept. the ‘government introduced the opportunity for local communities to prepare neighborhood plans through amendments to the town and country planning act 1990 and the localism act 2011, and the neighborhood planning (general) regulations 2012’ (lewes town council, 2017, p.5). meanwhile, the cub project seems to be a legitimation of the ‘environmental friendly’ in the plan focusing about the spatial policy. as the result, hundreds of the additional housing units in the lewes (one of the largest settlements area in the south down national park) is in the draft of a local government proposal (see porter, et.al., 2014). it is societal interactions that have apparently spoken for the natural world. the cub partnership could be a result from the economic framing stage at the commodification process (the continuation of the valuing natural capital). it has shown the multiple purposes. firstly, it has been a support for the local economy at the beginning (the roots since the lewes pound campaign in 2008). secondly, a partnership with south down way ahead nature improvement (where sympathetic actors such as the project officer embrace to provide the partnership project). thirdly, the draft of a proposal for the spatial wulandari ‘chalking up the benefits' project: the economic valuation of ecosystem services… jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 42 policy has launched through the neighborhood plan partnership. in some degrees, the project has provided more to the human sake, rather than the stewardship for the nature sake. so we turn for relief to natural england, the official body whose purpose is ‘to converse and enhance the natural environment’. whoops. its new chair, andrew sells, a major donor to the conservative party, made his fortune in housebuilding, the industry most likely to benefit from biodiversity offsetting (monbiot, 2014). the independent media has shown another type of elite capture in the environmental protection projects in the uk. asymmetric power seems coincidental with the multiple partnership in one of the example projects. it promotes privatization of the land use for the household sake. the evolution of es concept and socio-political issues at uk table 2 the evolution of es concept and socio-political issues at uk year evolution concept policy arena and societal interactions pre-1997 early academic conceptions of es expanding economic and policy interest in es agricultural pressures uptake of es concept by global actors global reporting on ecosystem services institutionalisation of an intergovernmental body on biodiversity and ecosystem services negotiations and tarif war on food export (trade and market impetus) cap (1957) and aep (1992) 1997 insufficient on environmental protection on the conventional agriculture the growing ‘pes talk’ 2001 the notion to leave behind the intensification of agricultural practice 2005 political opportunity upon with the environmental protection urban pressures 2010 defra environmental white paper (2011) decouple aep to reconcile rural development goal and environmental protections elite capture on farming subsidy elite capture on hybrid institutional forms elite capture on communities’ embbedness wulandari ‘chalking up the benefits' project: the economic valuation of ecosystem services… jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 43 the es concept evolution has provoked more to create the payment schemes such as pes in the policy arena. muradian, et. al. (2010, p.1207) argue ‘that there is instead a greater need to develop local and regional institutional frameworks that can cope with complexity and diversity, and that can integrate pes within existing regimes of rural development and other policy instruments for environmental protection’. this is in line with the result from this study. the dominance from the market approach can be seen at the how pes challenges the aep where eventually defra environmental white paper (2011) arised as the part to decouple the ‘green payment’ from agricultural industry. but the government should not ‘forget’ that it did promote privatization of the land use. pes creates another actor in the business-centered politician rather than enhance the close relationship of human and the natural world. the elite capture beyond the pes is not only happen in the developing country. this study shows that the elite capture has also existed through the conceptualization of the es concept at the uk context. it starts from the subsidy for farming (monbiot, 2013); ‘green payment’ in aep for agricultural pressure (muir, 2013); and in the effort to tackle the urban pressures (monbiot, 2014). i argue that it tends to show the similar pattern. conclusion the exponential attention on the es concept has the extension to the economic valuation of the es (gómez-baggethun and ruiz-pérez, 2011). it certainly promotes the commodification process at the uk as well – as it has been seen in the political debate (house of commons hansard debates for 21 oct 2013). it shows the correlation on the evolution of the es concept from the prior review about institutionalization of an intergovernmental body on biodiversity and ecosystem services (chaudhary, et.al., 2015, p.29). it is the marked evolution of the concept which focusing on the gap in between the policy and the practitioners. this study has contributed to the prior review about the evolution of the es concept in the political arena and the societal interactions within the uk context. the uk in particular has the intersectional relation among its position as the member of eu and the growing attention of the discourse firstly at the us. the key issue is that the possibility of the continuous global polarity on the international trade system on the notion of the environmental protections. the domination of the es concept as a discourse at the us and uk (chaudhary, et. al., 2015) has probably the conspicuous explanation since the history has highlighted that uk has been excluded at the initiation of the cap pertaining to the avoidance from the us hegemony on the early european integration (giauque, 2000, p. 108). the further details on the historical analysis, i argue, will be useful to enhance the sociopolitical analysis in the future research of how the es concept has been shaped. the lobby among the global institutions through the environmental politics perspective has promote the general evolution of the es concept has being shaped by the more multidisciplinary approach (chaudhary, et.al., 2015). this promote the evidences that show a support to the wider actors involved (fairhead, et. al., 2012, p. 239). analysis on wulandari ‘chalking up the benefits' project: the economic valuation of ecosystem services… jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 20 no. 1, april 2019 | 44 the policy arena and the societal arena, however, shows the growing aspects beyond the useful part of the es concept for its inclusiveness both in the national and local context. beyond controversial farming subsidy and the negotiations around decoupling ‘green payment’ from the agricultural sector, there are elite capture that show similar pattern. taking into the account around the dark green movement, i grasp a doubt onto the sincerity around the global agenda to the sustainable development using the economic valuation on the es. the commitment among the nations could still possible implicate a ‘cosmetic solution’. the close relationship between the human and the natural world has not been seen in the effort to the ‘fundamental reforms of the way society is organized’ (chapin, et. al. 2009). this creates potency for the rising of the resistance into the related ‘green’ movement. the growing es concepts could possibly have a different direction if there is no motivation to the notion of materialism (kosoy and corbera, 2010). for example, the impact from elite capture and distributional issues arises through the growing complex institutions that involves in the environmental protection both in the developed and developing country. the effect is the loss of trust in the societal interactions and this should be an alarming rate for the varieties parties to depoliticize the ‘green’ using economic valuation of ecosystem services. references af news agency. 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(2007). sustainability and local tourism branding in england’s south downs. journal of sustainable tourism, 15(6), 715-734. https://doi.org/10.2167/jost652.0 https://doi.org/10.1002/jepp.88 http://www.oxfordreference.com/view/10.1093/acref/9780199539536.001.0001/acref-9780199539536-e-2178?rskey=y9qplt&result=934&q http://www.oxfordreference.com/view/10.1093/acref/9780199539536.001.0001/acref-9780199539536-e-2178?rskey=y9qplt&result=934&q http://www.fao.org/docrep/010/a0701e/a0701e00.htm https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8330.2012.00989.x https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8330.2012.00989.x https://doi.org/10.1177/0002764200043004003 https://www.theguardian.com/society/2000/nov/15/guardiansocietysupplement8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qmzsk97iufq https://www.transitiontownlewes.org/love_workshop_april.html https://doi.org/10.1093/eurrag/29.3.309 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2009.11.018 https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/jun/07/environment-white-paper https://doi.org/10.1017/s0960777311000464 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.197.4307.960 https://doi.org/10.2167/jost652.0 image (2).jpg image (3).jpg image (4).jpg image (5).jpg image (6).jpg image (7).jpg image (8).jpg image (9).jpg image (10).jpg image (11).jpg image (2).jpg image (3).jpg image (4).jpg image (5).jpg image (6).jpg image (7).jpg image (8).jpg image (9).jpg image (10).jpg image (11).jpg image (12).jpg image (13).jpg image (14).jpg image (15).jpg image (16).jpg image (17).jpg image (18).jpg image (19).jpg image (20).jpg image (21).jpg microsoft word 04-jamzani _117-129_.doc jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 8, nomor 2, oktober 2007: 117-129 aglomerasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi: peran karakteristik regional di indonesia jamzani sodik 1 dedi iskandar 1 1 fakultas ekonomi universitas pembangunan nasional “veteran” yogyakarta jalan swk 104 (lingkar utara) condongcatur 55283 telp: 0274-486733, 0274-486402, 0274-486188 e-mail: jamzanis_edu@yahoo.com abstract the aim of this study is to examine the effect of agglomeration of regional economic growth across 26 provinces in indonesia. the provincial pooling data for the period of 1994-2003 are regressed using generalized least square (gls) method. factors affecting the economic growth are considered such as agglomeration, labor force, inflation rates, openness rate of the provinces, and human capital. the study suggests the influence of three variables on the regional economic growth: labor force, inflation rates and the openness rate of the provinces; whereas the remaining two (agglomeration and human capital) are likely to have no effect. keywords: agglomeration, regional characteristic, panel data pendahuluan selama seratus tahun lebih, para pakar geografi, pakar ekonomi, perencana kota, para ahli strategi bisnis, ilmuwan regional, dan para ilmuwan sosial lainnya telah mencoba memberikan penjelasan tentang “mengapa” dan “di mana” aktivitas ekonomi berlokasi. ketimpangan distribusi kegiatan ekonomi secara regional dalam satu negara telah menjadi perhatian utama. inilah yang mendorong dilakukannya banyak penelitian dalam bidang ini (kuncoro, 2002). industrialisasi telah menjadi kekuatan utama (driving force) di balik urbanisasi yang cepat di kawasan asia sejak dasawarsa 1980an. berbeda dalam kasus industri berbasis sumber daya (resource-based industries), industri manufaktur cenderung berlokasi di dalam dan di sekitar kota. pertanian dan industri berdampingan, bahkan kadang berebut lahan di seputar pusat-pusat kota yang pada gilirannya semakin mengaburkan perbedaan baku antara desa dan kota (mcgee, 1991). industri cenderung beraglomerasi di daerah-daerah dimana potensi dan kemampuan daerah tersebut memenuhi kebutuhan mereka, dan mereka mendapat manfaat akibat lokasi perusahaan yang saling berdekatan. kota umumnya menawarkan berbagai kelebihan dalam bentuk produktifitas dan pendapatan yang lebih tinggi, menarik investasi baru, teknologi baru, pekerja terdidik dan terampil dalam jumlah yang jauh lebih tinggi dibanding perdesaan (malecki, 1991). oleh karena itu, dapat dimengerti apabila aglomerasi (agglomeration), baik aktivitas ekonomi dan penduduk di perkotaan, menjadi isu sentral dalam literatur geografi ekonomi, strategi bisnis dan peningkatan daya saing jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 8, nomor 2, oktober 2007: 117 129 118 nasional dan studi-studi regional. (krugman, 1998). persebaran sumberdaya yang tidak merata menimbulkan disparitas dalam laju pertumbuhan ekonomi antardaerah. ketidakmerataan sumber daya ini tercermin pada konsentrasi kegiatan ekonomi yang terjadi pada daerah tertentu saja. daerah-daerah dimana konsentrasi kegiatan ekonomi terjadi memperoleh manfaat yang disebut dengan ekonomi aglomerasi (agglomeration economies). seperti yang dikatakan oleh bradley and gans (1996), bahwa ekonomi aglomerasi adalah eksternalitas yang dihasilkan dari kedekatan geografis dari kegiatan ekonomi. selanjutnya adanya ekonomi aglomerasi dapat memberikan pengaruh yang positif terhadap laju pertumbuhan ekonomi. sebagai akibatnya daerah-daerah yang termasuk dalam aglomerasi pada umumnya mempunyai laju pertumbuhan yang lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan daerah yang bukan aglomerasi. hubungan positif antara aglomerasi geografis dari kegiatan-kegiatan ekonomi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi telah banyak dibuktikan (martin dan octavianno, 2001). aglomerasi menghasilkan perbedaan spasial dalam tingkat pendapatan. semakin teraglomerasi secara spasial suatu perekonomian maka akan semakin meningkat pertumbuhannya. daerah-daerah yang banyak industri pengolahan tumbuh lebih cepat dibandingkan daerah-daerah yang hanya mempunyai sedikit industri pengolahan. alasannya adalah daerah-daerah yang mempunyai industri pengolahan lebih banyak mempunyai akumulasi modal. dengan kata lain, daerahdaerah dengan konsentrasi industri pengolahan tumbuh lebih cepat dibandingkan dengan daerah yang tidak punya konsentrasi industri pengolahan. dengan adanya kenyataan seperti di atas maka penelitian ini akan menganalisis dampak aglomerasi terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi regional (26 provinsi). dalam rangka analisis, ada beberapa tinjauan pustaka yang berkaitan erat dengan penelitian ini. 1. konsep ekonomi aglomerasi (agglomeration economies) dalam konteks ekonomi geografi, konsep aglomerasi berkaitan dengan konsentrasi spasial dari penduduk dan kegiatan-kegiatan ekonomi (malmberg dan maskell, 2001). hal ini sejalan dengan apa yang dikemukakan oleh montgomery dalam kuncoro (2002) bahwa aglomerasi adalah konsentrasi spasial dari aktivitas ekonomi di kawasan perkotaan karena penghematan akibat lokasi yang berdekatan (economies of proximity) yang diasosiasikan dengan kluster spasial dari perusahaan, para pekerja dan konsumen. keuntungan-keuntungan dari konsentrasi spasial sebagai akibat dari ekonomi skala (scale economies) disebut dengan ekonomi aglomerasi (agglomeration economies). (mills dan hamilton, 1989). pengertian ekonomi aglomerasi juga berkaitan dengan eksternalitas kedekatan geografis dari kegiatan-kegiatan ekonomi, bahwa ekonomi aglomerasi merupakan suatu bentuk dari eksternalitas positif dalam produksi yang merupakan salah satu faktor yang menyebabkan terjadinya pertumbuhan kota. (bradley and gans, 1996). ekonomi aglomerasi diartikan sebagai penurunan biaya produksi karena kegiatan-kegiatan ekonomi berlokasi pada tempat yang sama. gagasan ini merupakan sumbangan pemikiran alfred marshall yang menggunakan istilah localized industry sebagai pengganti dari istilah ekonomi aglomerasi. ahli ekonomi hoover juga membuat klasifikasi ekonomi aglomerasi menjadi 3 jenis yaitu large scale economies merupakan keuntungan aglomerasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi (jamzani sodik dan dedi iskandar) 119 yang diperoleh perusahaan karena membesarnya skala produksi perusahaan tersebut pada suatu lokasi, localization economies merupakan keuntungan yang diperoleh bagi semua perusahaan dalam industri yang sama dalam suatu lokasi dan urbanization economies merupakan keuntungan bagi semua industri pada suatu lokasi yang sama sebagai konsekuensi membesarnya skala ekonomi (penduduk, pendapatan, output atau kemakmuran) dari lokasi tersebut. berbeda dengan pendapat para ahli ekonomi yang lain, o’sullivan (1996) membagi ekonomi aglomerasi menjadi dua jenis yaitu ekonomi lokalisasi dan ekonomi urbanisasi. dalam hal ini yang dimaksud dengan ekonomi aglomerasi adalah eksternalitas positif dalam produksi yaitu menurunnya biaya produksi sebagian besar perusahaan sebagai akibat dari produksi perusahaan lain meningkat. 2. teori aglomerasi a. teori neo klasik sumbangan terbesar teori neo klasik adalah pengenalan terhadap ekonomi aglomerasi dengan argumentasi bahwa aglomerasi muncul dari prilaku para pelaku ekonomi dalam mencari keuntungan aglomerasi berupa ekonomi lokalisasi dan ekonomi urbanisasi. (kuncoro, 2002). asumsi yang digunakan oleh teori neo-klasik adalah constant return to scale dan persaingan sempurna. alfred weber dikenal sebagai pendiri teori lokasi modern yang berkenaan dengan tempat, lokasi dan geografi dari kegiatan ekonomi. minimisasi biaya yang dikombinasikan dengan bobot input-input yang berbeda dari perusahaan dan industri menentukan lokasi optimal bagi suatu perusahaan. weber secara eksplisit memperkenalkan konsep ekonomi aglomerasi, skala efisien minimum, dan keterkaitan ke depan dan ke belakang. konsep ini menjadi dasar berkembangnya teori perdagangan regional baru. dalam sistem perkotaan teori neo klasik, mengasumsikan adanya persaingan sempurna sehingga kekuatan sentripetal aglomerasi disebut sebagai ekonomi eksternal murni. (krugman, 1998). kekuatan sentripetal muncul dari kebutuhan untuk pulang-pergi (commute) ke pusat bisnis utama dalam masing-masing kota yang menyebabkan suatu gradien sewa tanah dalam masing-masing kota. menurut krugman (1998), keterbatasan teori neo klasik di antaranya adalah melihat bahwa ekonomi eksternal yang mendorong adanya aglomerasi masih dianggap sebagi misteri (blackbox). di samping itu sistem perkotaan neo klasik adalah non spasial yang hanya menggambarkan jumlah dan tipe kota tetapi tidak menunjukkan lokasinya. b. teori eksternalitas dinamis teori-teori eksternalitas dinamis percaya bahwa kedekatan geografis memudahkan transmisi ide, maka transfer teknologi merupakan hal penting bagi kota (glaeser, et.al. 1992). teori eksternalitas dinamis didasarkan pada teori yang dikemukakan oleh marshall-arrow-romer (mar), porter dan jacob. teori-teori ini mencoba menjelaskan secara simultan bagaimana membentuk kota dan mengapa kota tumbuh. eksternalitas mar menekankan pada transfer pengetahuan antarperusahaan dalam suatu industri. menurut mar monopoli lokal merupakan hal yang lebih baik dibandingkan dengan kompetisi lokal sebab lokal monopoli menghambat aliran ide dari industri lain dan eksternalitas diinternalisasi oleh inovator. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 8, nomor 2, oktober 2007: 117 129 120 seperti halnya mar, porter mengatakan bahwa dengan transfer pengetahuan tertentu, konsentrasi industri secara geografis akan mendorong pertumbuhan. berbeda dengan mar, porter menyatakan bahwa kompetisi lokal lebih penting untuk mempercepat adopsi inovasi. tidak seperti mar dan porter, jacob percaya bahwa transfer pengetahuan paling penting adalah berasal datang dari industriindustri inti. variasi dan keberagaman industri yang berdekatan secara geografis akan mendukung inovasi dan pertumbuhan dibandingkan dengan spesialisasi secara geografis. c. teori ekonomi geografi baru (the new economic geography) teori ekonomi geografi baru berupaya untuk menurunkan efek-efek aglomerasi dari interaksi antara besarnya pasar, biaya transportasi dan increasing return dari perusahaan. dalam hal ini ekonomi aglomerasi tidak diasumsikan tetapi diturunkan dari interaksi ekonomi skala pada tingkat perusahaan, biaya transportasi dan mobilitas faktor produksi. teori ekonomi geografi baru menekankan pada adanya mekanisme kausalitas sirkular untuk menjelaskan konsentrasi spasial dari kegiatan ekonomi (krugman dan venables dalam martin & ottavianno, 2001). dalam model tersebut kekuatan sentripetal berasal dari adanya variasi konsumsi atau beragamnya intermediate good pada sisi produksi. kekuatan sentrifugal berasal dari tekanan yang dimiliki oleh konsentrasi geografis dari pasar input lokal yang menawarkan harga lebih tinggi dan menyebarnya permintaan. jika biaya transportasi cukup rendah maka akan terjadi aglomerasi. dalam model eksternalitas teknologi, transfer pengetahuan antarperusahaan memberikan insentif bagi aglomerasi kegiatan ekonomi. informasi diperlakukan sebagai barang publik dengan kata lain tidak ada persaingan dalam memperolehnya. difusi informasi ini kemudian menghasilkan manfaat bagi masing-masing perusahaan. dengan mengasumsikan bahwa masingmasing perusahaan menghasilkan informasi yang berbeda-beda, manfaat interaksi meningkat seiring dengan jumlah perusahaan. karena interaksi ini informal, perluasan pertukaran informasi menurun dengan meningkatnya jarak. hal ini memberikan insentif bagi pengusaha untuk berlokasi dekat dengan perusahaan lain sehingga menghasilkan aglomerasi. 3. tinjauan empiris studi empiris tentang aglomerasi dan ekonomi aglomerasi telah banyak menarik perhatian peneliti. pada umumnya berbagai studi mengkaitkan aglomerasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi dalam pengertian pertumbuhan nilai tambah industri, pertumbuhan kesempatan kerja, pertumbuhan produktivitas tenaga kerja. adanya berbagai konsep tentang ekonomi aglomerasi dan teori yang mendasari berdampak terhadap perbedaan ukuran aglomerasi dan ekonomi aglomerasi yang digunakan dengan asumsi yang berbeda-beda. konsep ekonomi aglomerasi statis menjelaskan hubungan antara ekonomi aglomerasi dengan pertumbuhan nilai tambah industri pengolahan di 13 wilayah perkotaan selama tahun 1957-1977. studi dari hanson (1997), menguji hubungan antara upah dan kedekatan menuju pusat industri. hanson mengestimasi upah relatif industri manufaktur terhadap upah industri manufaktur nasional yang merupakan fungsi aglomerasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi (jamzani sodik dan dedi iskandar) 121 jarak menuju mexico city dan jarak menuju united states. upah relatif regional berkorelasi negatif sangat kuat dengan jarak menuju mexico city dan jarak dari mexico city menuju perbatasan united states. kenaikan 10 persen di dalam jarak dari mexico city berhubungan dengan 1,9 persen penurunan di dalam upah nominal relatif, dan 10 persen kenaikan di dalam jarak dari mexico ke perbatasan united states berhubungan dengan 1,3 persen penurunan dalam upah nominal relatif. hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa perbedaan untuk mengakses menuju pusat industri akan membuat perbedaan upah regional. kekuatan hubungan antara perbedaan upah regional dan kedekatannya menuju pusat industri menggambarkan kebijakan perdagangan bermain sangat penting di dalam pembangunan ekonomi regional. juoro (1989), menganalisis faktor-faktor penentu bagi konsentrasi di indonesia (sekaligus ia juga menganalisis konsentrasi industri di filipina). dengan mempergunakan fungsi serupa ces yang dikembangkan oleh dhrymes (1965), ia melakukan regresi upah (wages) sebagai fungsi dari output dan tenaga kerja. dari parameter-parameter estimasi tingkat homogenitas (degree of homogeneity) yang merepresentasikan skala ekonomi atau ekonomi lokalisasi untuk tingkat industri. hasilnya memperlihatkan bahwa hampir semua industri tiga dijit di indonesia mempunyai tingkat homogenitas lebih besar daripada satu. keadaan ini merupakan pertanda pentingnya ekonomi lokalisasi bagi terkonsentrasinya industri di daerah perkotaan besar (large urban areas). selanjutnya juoro melakukan regresi tingkat homogenitas sebagai fungsi dari peubahpeubah ekonomi aglomerasi: penduduk perkotaan dan jumlah jasa produsen (dalam hal ini banyaknya lembaga keuangan). hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa peubah penduduk perkotaan signifikan dan berpengaruh positif terhadap tingkat homogenitas. ini berarti semakin besar penduduk perkotaan semakin produktif industri yang berlokasi di daerah perkotaan. dengan kata lain penduduk perkotaan merupakan penentu bagi keberadaan ekonomi urbanisasi. namun peubah kuadrat penduduk menunjukkan tanda negatif dan signifikan. ini berarti penduduk tidak lagi berpengaruh positif terhadap produktifitas pada saat jumlahnya melebihi batas optimum, tetapi malah sebaliknya berpengaruh negatif (disekonomi urbanisasi). sjoholm (1999) melakukan studi tentang peran karateristik regional dan investasi langsung terhadap pertumbuhan produktivitas industri manufaktur di indonesia. studi tersebut menyimpulkan bahwa karateristik pada tingkat kabupaten tampaknya lebih mampu menjelaskan pertumbuhan produktifitas ketimbang tingkat provinsi. pada tingkat kabupaten struktur industri yang terdiversifikasi lebih dapat meningkatkan pertumbuhan produktifitas secara berarti. studi ini tidak menemukan perusahaan atau industri di tingkat kabupaten yang terspesialisasi atau yang kompetisinya tinggi mewujudkan pertumbuhan produktifitas yang tinggi. penelitian yang sama pernah dilakukan oleh fujita (1988) dan krugman (1991) yang menyimpulkan bahwa: teori perdagangan dasar untuk increasing return mempunyai dua prediksi untuk ekonomi regional: pekerja terkonsentrasi di pusat industri, dan upah nominal regional mengalami penurunan (decreasing) dalam ongkos transport menuju pusat industri. kim (1995) menguji sejauh mana lokalisasi industri terkonsentrasi, dapat dijelaskan melalui regresi lokalisasi yang diukur dengan skala ekonomi dan faktor-faktor produksi (regression of localization of scale economies and resources). intensitas bahan baku (raw material intensity) yang merupakan biaya bahan baku dibagi dengan nilai tambah pada industri jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 8, nomor 2, oktober 2007: 117 129 122 manufaktur, digunakan untuk mengukur pentingnya faktor-faktor produksi. sedangkan ukuran pabrik rata-rata (average plant size) atas dasar pekerja produksi (production workers), digunakan sebagai pengukur skala sebagaimana model heckscher ohlin. teori h-o muncul berkat karya heckscher yang berjudul “foreign trade and the distribution of income” (1919) dan buku ohlin yang berjudul “international and interregional trade” (1933). analisis h-o mengemukakan bahwa “keunggulan komparatif ditentukan oleh distribusi sumber daya absolut antar negara, khususnya oleh rasio faktor endowment relatif antarnegara” (deardorff, 1996: 478-481 & 492-493; john, 1985: 178-81). teori keunggulan komparatif mengajukan dalil bahwa: (1) negara berdagang untuk memperoleh keuntungan dari perbedaan sumber daya alam yang mereka miliki; (2) daerah akan berspesialisasi berdasarkan keunggulan komparatif yang mereka miliki. hasil analisis menunjukkan dukungan terhadap model empiris dimana spesialisasi regional dapat dijelaskan oleh skala ekonomi (plant size), resource yang digunakan (raw material intensity), industry dummy, dan time dummy. hanson (1998) yang menguji dampak liberalisasi perdagangan, terfokus pada ongkos transpor, yang mana perusahaan berpindah ke wilayah yang relatif baik untuk mengakses pasar luar negeri. hubungan kedepan dan ke belakang (backward-forward linkages), mendorong perusahaan untuk berlokasi dekat dengan pembeli (buyers) dan penyalur (suppliers), dan aglomerasi ekonomi, yang mendorong pertumbuhan sebelum adanya pusat industri. khususnya fakta di sini mempertimbangkan pertumbuhan pekerja industri regional di mexico sebelum dan setelah reformasi perdagangan. konsisten dengan hipotesis dari transport cost bahwa pertumbuhan pekerja setelah reformasi perdagangan adalah lebih tinggi di wilayah yang relatif tertutup terhadap united states. konsisten dengan backward-forward linkage hypothesis, pertumbuhan pekerja lebih tinggi di wilayah yang berlokasi dekat dengan perusahaan hulu dan hilir (upstream and downstream industries). tidak ditemukan bukti aglomerasi ekonomi berkorelasi positif dengan pertumbuhan pekerja. secara bersama-sama hasilnya menggambarkan decomposition sabuk manufaktur di mexico city (manufacturing belt) dan spesialisasi pusat industri yang lebih luas terdapat di mexico utara. smith dan florida (1994) menguji peran khusus dari tipe aglomerasi, hubungan ke depan dan kebelakang (backward-forward linkage) perusahaan manufaktur di dalam proses penentuan lokasi industri. dengan menggunakan analisis ekonometrik dari japanese-affiliated manufacturing establishment in automotiverelated industries. dimulai dari konsep model proses penentuan lokasi japanese automotiverelated manufacturing establishment dengan menekankan pada peran aglomerasi didalam lokasi industri. mengikuti krugman (1991), arthur (1990), dan yang lain david dan rosebloom (1990), walker (1989), mereka menganjurkan bahwa aglomerasi mempunyai pengaruh yang kuat atas lokasi industri. hipotesis lanjutan bahwa aglomerasi merupakan faktor yang signifikan di dalam lokasi industri japanese-affiliated manufacturing establishment. hasil empirik dari model memperkuat hipotesis ini. hasilnya konsisten lintas geografi, yang sesuai dengan persamaan yang menggunakan perbedaan proxy pengukuran, dan penemuan yang sama dengan menggunakan tobit, poisson, atau bentuk fungsi dari binomial yang negatif. penemuan empirik ini berkenaan dengan hipotesis utama yang kuat. sebagai pilihan tambahan di dalam area yang relatif tertutup dengan japanese automotive assembly establisment, japanese automotive-related aglomerasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi (jamzani sodik dan dedi iskandar) 123 manufacturing memilih lokasi dengan populasi yang besar, kepadatan industri manufaktur yang tinggi, dan upah yang tinggi. temuan ini mendukung kepercayaan, tetapi berlawanan dengan muatan catatan kebijaksanaan yang lazim dalam literatur lokasi industri. signifikan yang besar ditemukan pada peran upah, serikat pekerja dan konsentrasi minoritas di dalam pilihan lokasi japanese-affiliated manufacturing. penemuan empirik unambiguously mengindikasikan japanese-affiliated manufacturing establishment cenderung untuk berlokasi di tempat di mana upah tinggi. pilihan lokasi ini sangat kontras dengan hipotesis upah rendah yang ada di dalam literatur. mereka percaya bahwa orientasi upah yang tinggi dari japanese manufacturing establishment mencerminkan trade-off di dalam modal manusia yang besar dan stabilitas kekuatan pekerja yang lebih baik. kuncoro (2002), melakukan studi tentang dinamika spasial industri manufaktur di indonesia dengan tahun pengamatan 1976 sampai 1999. studi ini menegaskan bahwa aglomerasi industri besar dan sedang sangat berhubungan dengan konsentrasi perkotaan di jawa. aglomerasi industri manufaktur dan populasi yang besar telah berkembang di jabotabek dan greater bandung di bagian barat, dan greater surabaya di bagian timur pulau jawa. daerahdaerah tersebut menawarkan daya aglomerasi yang kuat, yang pada akhirnya akan menarik baik orang maupun perusahaan-perusahaan metode penelitian keseluruhan data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data sekunder yang diperoleh dari hasil pencatatan yang sistematis berupa data runtut waktu (time series) dan data (cross-section) dari tahun 1994-2003. sumber data yang diperoleh dari hasil publikasi bps. definisi operasional variabel 1. variabel dependen dalam penelitian ini yang menjadi variabel dependen adalah laju pertumbuhan produk domestik regional bruto per provinsi seluruh indonesia. data laju pertumbuhan pdrb yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini merupakan data laju pertumbuhan pdrb atas dasar harga konstan 1993 menurut provinsi. 2. variabel independen a. aglomerasi aglomerasi adalah konsentrasi spasial dari aktivitas ekonomi dikawasan perkotaan karena penghematan akibat lokasi yang berdekatan (economies of proximity) yang diasosiasikan dengan kluster spasial dari perusahaan, para pekerja dan konsumen. untuk mencari aglomerasi, disini kita menggunakan indeks balassa: ⎟ ⎟ ⎠ ⎞ ⎜ ⎜ ⎝ ⎛ ⎟ ⎟ ⎠ ⎞ ⎜ ⎜ ⎝ ⎛ = ∑∑ ∑ ∑ ijji iji j ij ij ij e e e e balassa / dimana: i = sektor j = wilayah e = tenaga kerja pembilang dari indeks ini menyajikan bagian wilayah j dari total tenaga kerja di sektor industri manufaktur i . semakin terpusat suatu industri, semakin besar indeks balassanya. (sbergami, 2002) b. laju angkatan kerja laju angkatan kerja adalah persentase perubahan jumlah angkatan kerja suatu provinsi dari tahun ke tahun. angkatan kerja adalah jumlah penduduk yang bekerja dan penduduk yang belum bekerja atau jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 8, nomor 2, oktober 2007: 117 129 124 sedang mencari pekerjaan pada suatu wilayah dalam jangka waktu tertentu. c. laju inflasi laju inflasi adalah kenaikan harga secara umum dan terus-menerus. selain itu laju inflasi merupakan merupakan salah satu indikator dan menjadi barometer untuk menilai stabilitas dan pertumbuhan ekonomi suatu wilayah. d. laju openness (laju keterbukaan ekonomi) laju openness adalah persentase laju perubahan ekspor netto pada suatu provinsi dari tahun ke tahun. e. human capital dalam penelitian ini human capital diproxy dengan tingkat pendidikan, yaitu persentase laju perubahan jumlah penduduk (siswa) baik laki-laki maupun perempuan yang masih duduk atau belajar di tingkat slta pada suatu daerah dari tahun ke tahun. alat analisis data untuk mencapai hasil penelitian dan pengujian hipotesis dalam penelitian ini maka digunakan analisis regresi dengan metode gls (generalized least squares) atau metode kuadrat terkecil yang menghasilkan penaksiran linier dan tidak bias (gujarati, 1995:52). model ini, secara umum dapat ditunjukkan dengan formulasi sebagai berikut: yit = αoi + β1x1it + β2x2it + β3x3it + β4x4it + β5x5it + εit dimana: y = laju pertumbuhan pdrb i = provinsi (1,…,26) t = waktu (tahun 1994,…,2003) α = konstanta x1 = aglomerasi x2 = laju angkatan kerja x3 = laju inflasi x4 = laju openness (laju keterbukaan ekonomi) x5 = human capital εit = variabel pengganggu β1, β2, β3, β4, β5 = koefisien regresi dari masing-masing variabel yang mempengaruhi. metode analisis yang dilakukan menggunakan data runtut waktu (times series) dari tahun 1994-2003 dan data cross section dari provinsi-provinsi di indonesia (26 provinsi). teknik analisis data secara teoritis, ada beberapa keuntungan yang diperoleh dengan menggunakan data yang digabungkan tersebut. pertama, semakin banyak jumlah observasi yang dimiliki bagi kepentingan estimasi parameter populasi yang membawa akibat positif dengan memperbesar derajat kebebasan (degree of freedom) dan menurunkan kemungkinan kolinearitas antar variabel bebas. kedua, dimungkinkannya estimasi masing-masing karakteristik individu maupun karakteristik menurut waktu secara terpisah. dengan demikian, analisis hasil estimasi akan lebih komprehensif dan mencakup hal-hal yang lebih mendekati realita. (lihat, hsio,1995). di dalam model persamaan regresi linear klasik (classical linear regression model), gangguan (error terms) selalu dinyatakan bersifat homoscedastic dan serially uncorrelated. dengan begitu, penggunaan metode ordinary least square akan menghasilkan penduga yang bersifat best linear unbiased. namun demikian, asumsi mengenai gangguan tersebut tidak dapat diterapkan pada data panel. data panel yang tersusun atas beberapa individu untuk beberapa aglomerasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi (jamzani sodik dan dedi iskandar) 125 periode, membawa masalah baru dalam sifat gangguan tersebut. masalah tersebut adalah karena gangguan (disturbances atau error term) yang ada kini menjadi tiga macam, yaitu gangguan antarwaktu (time-series related disturbances), gangguan antarindividu (cross-section disturbances) dan gangguan yang berasal dari keduanya. (lihat, gujarati, 2003). jika seluruh gangguan individu (μi), gangguan waktu (λt) dan random noise digabungkan menjadi satu dan mengikuti seluruh asumsi awal random noise yang terdistribusikan secara normal-bebas-identik, maka penggunaan metode generalized least square akan menghasilkan penduga yang memenuhi sifat best linear unbiased. metode ini, dengan kata lain, menyatakan bahwa seluruh gangguan yang terjadi mengikuti distribusi normal, dengan rata-rata (expected value) sebesar nol, sebagaimana asumsi yang dipegang dalam model persamaan regresi linear klasik. cara ini dikenal dengan nama random effect model, atau juga disebut error components model. namun demikian, bila asumsi bahwa seluruh gangguan tersebut tidak dapat dinyatakan mengikuti seluruh asumsi random noise seperti dalam model persamaan regresi linear klasik, maka baik penggunaan ordinary least square maupun generalized least square tidak akan memberikan hasil yang memenuhi sifat best linier unbiased. dengan cara ini, maka komponen gangguan antar waktu dan komponen gangguan antarindividu akan tergabung di dalam konstanta intercept model. cara ini dikenal dengan nama fixed effect model atau juga disebut dummy variable model. metode estimasi ini mendapatkan penduga yang efisien dengan menerapkan proses estimasi terhadap data simpangan (deviation) dari rata-rata menurut waktu, rata-rata menurut individu, dan ratarata menurut keduanya. sehingga untuk memilih antara penggunaan dummy variable model atau error components model, penelitian ini akan menggunakan statistik hausman (sitanggang dan nachrowi, 2004). spesifikasi hausman test asumsi utama dalam model regresi adalah bahwa error komponen atau e(μit/xit) = 0. hal ini penting karena faktor penggangggu (disturbance) mengandung efek individual invariant (μi) yang bersifat unobserved dan mungkin saja berkorelasi dengan xit. sebagai contoh, dalam persamaan bahwa μi mungkin dinotasikan sebagai unobservable secara individual dan mungkin saja berkorelasi dengan sejumlah variabel pada sisi kanan persamaan. dalam kasus ini, e(uit/xit) ≠ 0 dan estimator gls ( β̂ gls) akan bias dan tidak konsisten dengan β. namun demikian, dengan melakukan transformasi μi dan mengabaikannya maka within estimator ( β̂ within) akan unbiased dan konsisten dengan β. hausman (1978) menyarankan untuk membandingkan ( β̂ gls) dengan β̂ within, di mana keduanya konsisten dengan null hypothesis h0: e(μit/xit) = 0, tetapi tentunya dengan perbedaan limit probabilitas. pada kenyataannya, β̂ within akan konsisten bahkan ketika h0 benar atau tidak benar, sedangkan β̂ gls akan blue, konsisten dan asymtotic pada h0, tetapi akan tidak konsisten ketika h0 tidak benar. uji statistik akan mendasarkan pada 1 ~q = β̂ gls β̂ within, dengan h0, plim 1 ~q = 0, dan cov( 1 ~q , β̂ gls ) = 0. dengan menggunakan kenyataan bahwa uxxxgls 111 ^ ')'( −−− ωω=− ββ dan quxqxxwithin ')'( 1 ~ −=− ββ , akan diperoleh 0)( 1 ^ =qe , dan ),cov()var(),cov( ~^^ 1 ^^ withinglsglsgls q ββββ −= jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 8, nomor 2, oktober 2007: 117 129 126 −ω= −− 11 )'( xx 1111 )'()'()'( −−−− ωω qxxqxuuexxx 0)'()'( 1111 =ω−ω= −−−− xxxx (1) selanjutnya jika 1 ^^~ qglswithin −= ββ , akan diperoleh )var()var()var( 1 ^^~ qglswithin += ββ sejak 0),cov( 1 ^^ =qglsβ , maka; =−= )var()var()1var( ^~^ glswithinq ββ 1112 )'()'( −−− ω− xxqxxvσ (2) dengan demikian hausman test statistik adalah sebagai berikut: 1 ^1 1 ^' 1 ^ 1 var( qqqm − ⎥⎦ ⎤ ⎢⎣ ⎡= (3) dimana h0 asymtotic berdistribusi sebagai 2 kχ di mana k adalah dimensi vektor slope β . selanjutnya guna memenuhi aspek teknis operasional, ω akan digantikan oleh konsistensi estimator ω̂ , sehingga gls akan memungkinkan untuk diakukan. penolakan terhadap statistik hausman tersebut berarti penolakan terhadap fixed effect model atau dummy variable model. sehingga semakin besar nilai statistik hausman tersebut, semakin mengarah kepada penerimaan dugaan error components model (baltagi, 2003). hasil dan pembahasan hasil uji hausman test berdasarkan hasil uji hausman test diperoleh hasil seperti tersaji pada tabel 1. tabel 1. uji hausman test periode pengamatan χ hitung χ tabel 1994-2003 19,5963* 11,0705 sumber : data diolah keterangan : signifikan pada α 5persen berdasarkan tabel 1 hasil uji hausman menunjukkan bahwa untuk periode pengamatan 1994-2003 chi square hitung lebih besar daripada chi square table sehingga ho ditolak. dengan demikian estimasi menunjukkan bahwa pendekatan fixed effects lebih baik dibandingkan dengan pendekatan random effect. berarti terdapat perbedaan antar unit yang dapat dilihat melalui perbedaan dalam constants term. dalam fixed effects model diasumsikan bahwa tidak terdapat time-specific effect dan hanya memfokuskan pada individual-specific-effects. hasil estimasi fixed effect berdasarkan hasil hausman test menunjukkan nilai whitung > 2χ , ini menunjukkan analisis dalam penelitian ini lebih lanjut digunakan fixed effect. adapun untuk membahas dari penelitian ini diperoleh hasil estimasi seperti nampak dalam tabel 2. dari hasil analisis regresi diketahui bahwa laju angkatan kerja, laju inflasi, laju openness, memberikan pengaruh nyata terhadap laju pertumbuhan ekonomi regional, sedangkan variabel aglomerasi dan human capital tidak mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi regional (laju pdrb riil). aglomerasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi (jamzani sodik dan dedi iskandar) 127 tabel 2. hasil estimasi regresi dengan metode fixed effect variabel periode 19942003 aglomerasi (x1) laju angkatan kerja (x2) laju inflasi (x3) ekspor netto (x4) human capital (x5) 1.0779898 (2.185111) 0.134042*** (0.041088) -0.157417*** (0.010719) 0.007190*** (0.001867) -0.050949 (0.051314) f hitung 80.52415 r2 hitung 0.584465 sumber: data diolah keterangan : *** sig pada α = 0,01; ** sig pada α = 0,05; * sig pada α = 0,10 pembahasan variabel aglomerasi tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap laju pertumbuhan ekonomi regional (pdrb riil). dengan kenyataan seperti itu maka diketahui bahwa untuk indonesia yang bukan merupakan negara industri maju, aglomerasi bukan menjadi ukuran yang baik untuk mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi. ini dikarenakan aglomerasi yang ada di indonesia itu tidaklah banyak dan tidak merata. hal ini sesuai dengan studi dari kuncoro (2002), bahwa perkembangan industri manufaktur yang pesat di indonesia ternyata bias ke pulau jawa dan sumatera, ini jelas terlihat mencolok untuk industri besar dan menengah (ibm), yang sering diasosiasikan dengan industri manufaktur yang modern. provinsi-provinsi di pulau jawa dan provinsi-provinsi di pulau-pulau lain di indonesia secara jelas menggambarkan ketimpangan distribusi aktivitas industri. daerah industri yang paling menonjol di pulau jawa adalah jabotabek extended industrial area (eia). jabotabek boleh dikatakan merupakan daerah aglomerasi industri terbesar di indonesia. surabaya dan bandung sebagai perbandingan ternyata masih kurang dari separuh skala jabotabek yang mampu menyerap tenaga kerja yang banyak, sedangkan nilai tambah yang diciptakan jabotabek mencapai separuh dari seluruh daerah industri utama di indonesia. variabel laju angkatan kerja berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. dengan kenyataan seperti itu, maka pemerintah di indonesia harus terus meningkatkan kualitas angkatan kerjanya agar nantinya menjadi tenaga kerja yang unggul, terampil dan dapat diandalkan dalam mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi. variabel laju inflasi berpengaruh signifikan terhadap laju pertumbuhan pdrb riil dengan tanda negatif, hal ini menunjukkan bahwa tingkat inflasi yang menjadi indikator kestabilan suatu perekonomian sangat berperan dalam meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi regional. variabel laju openness memiliki arah yang konsisten dengan teori meskipun dengan koefisien (signifikan secara statistik) yang relatif kecil. sehingga bisa dikatakan bahwa tingkat keterbukaan perekonomian suatu daerah belum begitu besar berperan dalam meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi regional. tingkat pendidikan tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap laju pertumbuhan pdrb riil. ini bisa berarti bahwa, siswa yang ada di sekolah menengah umum (slta) tidaklah menjadi suatu ukuran yang baik untuk mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi regional di indonesia. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 8, nomor 2, oktober 2007: 117 129 128 kesimpulan dari hasil penelitian selama periode 1994-2003 diketahui bahwa variabel aglomerasi mempunyai nilai koefisien yang paling tinggi dibandingkan dengan variabel independen yang lain, yaitu laju angkatan kerja, tingkat inflasi, laju openness, dan tingkat pendidikan. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa aglomerasi (pengelompokan industri) jika lebih dikembangkan lagi bisa memberikan kontribusi yang cukup besar dalam mendukung meningkatnya laju pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah. variabel laju openness memiliki arah yang konsisten dengan teori meskipun dengan koefisien (signifikan secara statistik) yang relatif kecil. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa variabel ekspor netto bisa lebih berperan dalam meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi regional jika daerah bisa lebih meningkatkan ekspornya. variabel laju inflasi yang merupakan indikator kestabilan perekonomian suatu daerah sangat mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi dengan arah yang negatif. untuk itu daerah perlu menjaga agar inflasi bisa terkendali. lebih lanjut dalam studi ini, pendekatan fixed effect lebih baik dibanding random effect dalam menjelaskan perilaku pertumbuhan ekonomi regional di indonesia. dari penelitian ini saran yang diajukan penulis sebagai berikut; aglomerasi (pengelompokan industri) sebaiknya dapat ditingkatkan dengan cara membangun sentra-sentra atau kawasan yang dikhususkan untuk industri. dengan dibangunnya kawasan industri yang dilengkapi dengan fasilitas infrastruktur yang memadai serta berbagai kemudahan-kemudahan. di sini dibutuhkan kerjasama yang baik antara provinsi dan kabupaten/kota mengenai koordinasi peraturan perundang-undangan baik tingkat vertikal (antara pemerintah pusatprovinsi-kabupaten/kota) dan pada tingkat horisontal (antardepartemen dan badan-badan lainnya yang terkait), sehingga diperlukan reformasi mendasar berkaitan dengan perbaikan iklim bisnis, ekspor dan investasi di indonesia. daftar pustaka adisasmita, raharjo h. 2005. dasar-dasar ekonomi wilayah. yogyakarta: graha ilmu. ardani, amiruddin. 1992. analysis of regional growth and disparity: the impact analysis of the project on indonesian development. ph.d. dissertation city and regional planning. university of pensylvania philadelphia. usa (tidak dipublikasikan). arsyad, lincolin. 1988. ekonomi pembangunan. cetakan pertama. yogyakarta: stie ykpn badan pusat statistik. tt. statistik indonesia: berbagai edisi. jakarta: bps. baldwin, richard e., and toshihiro okubo, 2006, heterogeneous firms, agglomeration and economic geography: spatial selection and sorting, journal of economic geography 6(3):323-346 baltagi, b. h. 2003. econometric analysis of panel data. second edition. england: john wiley & sons. bradley, rebecca & gans, joshua s. 1996. growth in australian cities. the economic record. the economic society of australia, vol. 74 (226). duranton, gilles and diego puga. 2004. microfoundations of urban agglomeration economies. in vernon henderson and jacquesfrançois thisse (eds.) handbook of regional and urban economics, volume 4. amsterdam: northholland, 2063–2117. aglomerasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi (jamzani sodik dan dedi iskandar) 129 glaeser, kallal h.d, scheinkman j.a, & shleifer a. 1992. growth in cities. journal of political economy. 100 (6). 11261152. gujarati, damodar n, 1995. basic econometric, third edition, singapore: mc.graw hill, hanson gordon. 1998. north american economic integration and industry location. nber working paper series. working paper no. 6587. hayter, roger. 1997. the dynamics of industrial location, the factory, the firm and the production system. chichester: john wiley. hidayati, amini, dan mudrajad kuncoro, 2004, konsentrasi geografis industri manufaktur di greater jakarta dan bandung periode 1980-2000: menuju satu daerah aglomerasi? jurnal empirika, vol 17, no.2, desember 2004 hsiao c. 1995. analysis of panel data. new york: cambridge university press. juoro, umar. 1989. perkembangan studi ekonomi aglomerasi dan implikasi bagi perkembangan perkotaan di indonesia. jurnal ekonomi dan keuangan indonesia, vol. 37, no. 2. krugman. 1998. space: the final frontier. journal of economic perspectives, 12(2), 161-174. kuncoro, mudrajad, 2000, beyond agglomeration and urbanization, gadjah mada international journal of business: vol 2, no. 3, september. kuncoro, mudrajad, 2002. analisis spasial dan regional, studi aglomerasi dan kluster industri indonesia. yogyakarta: upp amp ykpn. malecki. 1991. technology and economic development: the dynamics of local, regional, and national change. new york: john wiley & sonc, inc. malmberg a. and maskell p. 1997. towards and explanation of industry agglomeration and regional spezialitation. european planning studies, vol. 5, no. 1, pp 25-41. martin p. and ottavianno. 2001. growth and agglomeration. international economic review 42, no. 4, pp. 947-968. mcgee t.g. 1991. the emergence of desakota regions in asia. expanding a hypothesis. honolulu: university of hawai press. mills, edwin s. and hamilton, bruce w. 1989. urban economic. fourth edition. london: harper collin o’sullivan, arthur, 1996. urban economic. third edition. united states of america: irwin press. sbergami, frederica. 2002. agglomeration and economic growth: some puzzles. geneva: graduate institute of international studies. sitanggang, ignatia, r dan nachrowi, djalal, n, (2004), pengaruh struktur ekonomi pada penyerapan tenaga kerja sektoral: analisis model demometrik di 30 provinsi pada 9 sektor di indonesia, seminar akademik tahunan ekonomi i, “perubahan struktural dalam rangka penyehatan ekonomi”, penguatan kebijakan publik dalam perspektif nasional dan global. program studi ilmu ekonomi pascasarjana feui dan isei, 8-9 desember. takuma, fumio and komei sasaki, 2000, spatial structure of a metropolitan area with an agricultural hinterland, journal of urban economics, vol. 48, no. 2, september, pp. 307-320 image (2).jpg image (3).jpg image (4).jpg image (5).jpg image (6).jpg image (7).jpg image (8).jpg image (9).jpg image (10).jpg microsoft word 10-nafi _183-197_.doc jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 8, nomor 2, oktober 2007: 183-197 mengapa ekonomi islam? muhamad nafik hadi ryandono fakultas ekonomi universitas airlangga surabaya kampus b jalan airlangga no.4 surabaya 60286 telp. (031) 5033642, 5036584 fax. (031) 5026288 e-mail: muhammadnafik@yahoo.com abstract islamic economics is a study of human behavior in satisfying their needs and facilitating them to achieve spiritual heights, guided by ethical values of islam. islam teaches mutual help among people in mobilizing resources available as provided by allah swt. the existence of economics is not independent from human ethos, ethics and character which are reflected in economic behavior. islamic economic system, on the other hand, is an application of faith and understanding of the muslims. the system not only provides benefits for the muslims but also for human being as a whole, as manifested in the concept of rahmatan lil a’lamin. it carries the principles of efficiency and purposeful in the resource mobilization based on the motive of achieving falah (victory) in the world as well as in the hereafter, as part of their ibadah and performance of the khilafah role of the earth. keywords: islamic economic, muslims, human behavior pendahuluan manusia adalah individu dan sekaligus makluk sosial yang mempunyai keinginan yang tidak terbatas tetapi kebutuhannyalah yang terbatas, sedangkan sumberdaya untuk memenuhinya bersifat langka dan alternatif. kelangkaan sumberdaya tersebut, bukan alasan bagi manusia untuk saling bersaing antara satu dengan lainnya melainkan harus saling kerjasama dan saling berbagi di antaranya. apabila mereka saling bersaing, maka akan ada yang kalah dan ada yang menang atau ada yang mendapatkan dan ada yang tidak mendapatkan sehingga akan ada yang termajinalkan kemudian terlempar dari persaingan dan ada yang menguasai sumberdaya yang ada. untuk menghindari saling bersaing dan saling mengalahkan tersebut, maka islam memerintahkan kepada manusia untuk saling tolong menolong antara sesamanya dan melarang tolong menolong dalam dosa dan pelanggaran sebagaimana disebutkan dalam surat al maidah ayat 2: artinya: ”… dan tolong-menolonglah kamu dalam (mengerjakan) kebajikan dan takwa, dan jangan tolong-menolong dalam berbuat dosa dan pelanggaran. dan bertakwalah kamu kepada allah, sesungguhnya allah amat berat siksa-nya....”. (qs, 5; al maidah:2) mengapa manusia harus saling tolong menolong dalam memenuhi keinginan dan kebutuhanya? karena permasalahan rejeki jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 8, nomor 2, oktober 2007: 183 197 184 (sumberdaya) untuk memenuhi keinginan dan kebutuhan manusia telah dijamin oleh allah, sebagaimana disebutkan dalam surat ar rum ayat 40. artinya: ”allah-lah yang menciptakan kamu, kemudian memberimu rezki, kemudian mematikanmu, kemudian menghidupkanmu (kembali). adakah di antara yang kamu sekutukan dengan allah itu yang dapat berbuat sesuatu dari yang demikian itu? maha sucilah dia dan maha tinggi dari apa yang mereka persekutukan.” (qs ar rum: 40) kelebihan dan kekurangan dalam hal rejeki di antara manusia merupakan sunnatullah dan allah memerintahkan agar yang berkelebihan menolong yang kekurangan. oleh karena itu hanya dengan tolong menolong dan saling memberilah, maka kebutuhan manusia itu dapat terpenuhi, karena yang kaya membutuhkan yang miskin dan sebaliknya yang miskin membutuhkan yang kaya. allah menjanjikan akan membalas barang siapa yang saling tolong menolong dan saling memberikan harta kepada yang membutuhkannya, maka allah akan mengganti harta yang diberikan itu dan kebaikan yang diperbuat tersebut akan dibalas lebih banyak dari yang dikeluarkannya, sebagaimana disebut dalam surat an nur ayat 38 dan saba’ ayat 39 sebagai berikut: artinya: “(mereka mengerjakan yang demikian itu) supaya allah memberi balasan kepada mereka (dengan balasan) yang lebih baik dari apa yang telah mereka kerjakan, dan supaya allah menambah karunia-nya kepada mereka. dan allah memberi rezki kepada siapa yang dikehendaki-nya tanpa batas.” (qs 24, an nuur:38) artinya: ”katakanlah: "sesungguhnya tuhanku melapangkan rizki bagi siapa yang dikehendaki-nya di antara hamba-hamba-nya dan menyempitkan bagi (siapa yang dikehendakinya)". dan barang apa saja yang kamu nafkahkan, maka allah akan menggantinya dan dia lah pemberi rezki yang sebaik-baiknya”.(qs 34, saba’:39) pada ayat yang lain allah melarang manusia mengambil dan memakan harta sesamanya dengan cara yang batil kecuali dengan tukar menukar yang saling suka (ridha), seperti disebutkan dalam al qur’an surat annisa’:29: mengapa ekonomi islam? (muhamad nafik hadi ryandono) 185 artinya: ”hai orang-orang yang beriman, janganlah kamu saling memakan harta sesamamu dengan jalan yang batil, kecuali dengan jalan perniagaan yang berlaku dengan suka sama-suka di antara kamu. dan janganlah kamu membunuh dirimu; sesungguhnya allah adalah maha penyayang kepadamu”. (qs 4, an nisaa’:29). ayat-ayat al qur’an di atas merupakan aturan dan etika perilaku bagi manusia dalam setiap aktivitas kehidupan, khususnya dalam memenuhi keinginan dan kebutuhannya. perilaku manusia dalam memenuhi keinginan dan kebutuhan hidupnya disebut ekonomi. kata ekonomi berasal dari dua kata yunani yaitu oikos dan nomos. oikos berarti rumah tangga (house-hold), sedang nomos berarti aturan, kaidah atau pengelolaan. dengan demikian secara sederhana ekonomi dapat diartikan sebagai kaidah-kaidah, aturan-aturan, etika atau cara pengelolaan suatu rumah tangga. ilmu yang mempelajari bagaimana perilaku tiap individu, rumah tangga dan masyarakat dalam mengelola sumberdaya yang mereka miliki untuk memenuhi kebutuhan mereka disebut ilmu ekonomi. ilmu ekonomi adalah ilmu yang mempelajari perilaku manusia dalam usahanya untuk memenuhi keinginannya yang tidak terbatas dengan sumber daya untuk memenuhi keinginan tersebut bersifat langka (scarcity) dan alternatif. ilmu ekonomi bukanlah ilmu yang bertujuan untuk membentuk manusia menjadi makluq ekonomi (economic man atau homo economicus) melainkan bertujuan untuk menjadikan menusia menjadi manusia yang beretika (homo ethicus) dalam memenuhi keinginan dan kebutuhan hidupannya. pengertian ilmu ekonomi tersebut menunjukkan bahwa ilmu ekonomi adalah ilmu tentang etika (ethic science) dan ilmu tentang perilaku (behaviour science). perilaku mentaati atau tidak mentaat etika yang berlaku disebut moral, sehingga orang yang perilakunya sesuai dengan etika yang berlaku disebut bermoral dan orang yang perilakunya tidak sesuai dengan etika yang berlaku disebut tidak bermoral. oleh karena itu ilmu ekonomi juga merupakan ilmu tentang moral (moral science). pembahasan bagaimana karakter dan ethos ekonomi terbentuk? ilmu ekonomi sebagai moral science dan behaviour science, maka ilmu ini sangat erat kaitannya dengan etos, etika dan karakter manusia, karena nilai-nilai tersebut akan berpengaruh terhadap perilaku dan karakter diri manusia. oleh karena itu setiap membahas tentang ekonomi tidak akan lepas dari pembahasan bagaimana karakter, etika dan ethos manusia itu sendiri dalam kehidupannya seharihari. buchori (1994:6), madjid (1995:410), dan tasmara (2004:15), menerangkan bahwa, etos berasal dari kata yunani yaitu ethos, artinya ciri, sifat atau kebiasaan, adat istiadat, atau juga kecenderungan moral, keyakinan atas sesuatu, pandangan hidup yang dimiliki seseorang, suatu kelompok orang atau bangsa, tata nilai (value system). lebih lanjut tasmara berpendapat, etos dibentuk oleh berbagai kebiasaan, pengaruh jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 8, nomor 2, oktober 2007: 183 197 186 budaya, serta sistem nilai yang diyakini. adams (1965:331) mendefinisikan etos sebagai sifat dasar atau karakter yang merupakan kebiasaan dan watak bangsa atau ras. koentjoroningrat (1980:231) mengemukakan pandangannya bahwa etos merupakan watak khas yang tampak dari luar, terlihat oleh orang lain. harriman (1995:80) etos diartikan sebagai pandangan khas suatu kelompok sosial, sistem nilai yang melatarbelakangi adat istiadat dan tatacara sustu komunitas. menurut geertz (abdullah; 1993:3) etos merupakan sikap mendasar manusia terhadap diri dan dunia yang dipancarkan hidup. etos adalah aspek evaluatif yang bersifat menilai. soekanto (1983:174), mengartikan etos antara lain: (a) nilai-nilai dan ide-ide dari suatu kebudayaan, dan (b) karakter umum suatu kebudayaan. secara lengkap etos adalah karakter dan sikap, kebiasaan serta kepercayaan dan seterusnya yang bersifat khusus tentang seorang individu atau kelompok manusia. dari kata ethos lahirlah kata etika, etiket yang pengertiannya adalah akhlak atau nilai yang berkaitan dengan baik dan buruk atau kualitas esensial seseorang atau suatu kelompok manusia yang daripadanya berkembang pandangan individu, masyarakat dan bangsa berkaitan nilai tertentu. karakter manusia terbentuk melalui proses secara terus menerus dan dapat berubah setiap saat dalam perjalanan hidupnya. proses pembentukan karakter tersebut berjalan tahap demi tahap, dari detik ke detik, dari jam ke jam dari hari ke hari dan seterusnya selama hidup manusia. karakter manusia akan tercermin dalam kehidupan sehari-harinya, misalnya karakter berekonomi akan dapat terlihat dari kehidupan ekonomi yang dijalaninya. misalnya manusia dalam kehidupan ekonominya terdapat manusia yang berkarakter homo economicus atau economic man atau homo ethicus. pembentukan dan perubahan karakter tersebut ditentukan oleh internalisasi dan eksternalisasi nilai-nilai (values) dalam kehidupan ekonominya masing-masing. internalisasi nilainilai yang dimaksud adalah proses pemahaman dan pembelajaran kemudian menyakini nilainilai tersebut untuk dijadikan values dalam kehidupan. values yang diyakini tersebut kemudian dieksternalisasikan (dipraktekkan/diamalkan) dalam bentuk pola pikir dan perilaku. perilaku itu dilakukan secara langulang dan terus menerus, yang kemudian menjadi kebiasaan atau budaya hidup seseorang. kebiasaan (budaya) yang dilakukan seseorang kemudian diikuti oleh individu atau komunitas lain yang lebih luas sehingga membentuk sebuah sistem kehidupan (peradaban) tertentu. proses mulai dari internalisasi sampai dengan terbentuknya sistem kehidupan (peradaban) tersebut sebenarnya merupakan proses terbentuknya karakter manusia dalam hidupnya sehari-hari. proses pembentukan karakter manusia tersebut akan terus berubah dan berputar terus-menerus sehingga setiap saat akan mengalami perubahan sesuai dengan tingkat internalisasi dan eksternalisasi nilai-nilai hidupnya. proses terbentuknya karakter manusia tersebut dapat dibuat gambarkan seperti gambar 1. gambar 1. terbentuknya karakter manusia mengapa ekonomi islam? (muhamad nafik hadi ryandono) 187 apabila values yang internalisasikan adalah nilai-nilai yang baik maka akan membentuk pola pikir baik. pola pikir yang baik (positif) akan membentuk perilaku kehidupan yang baik. perilaku baik, kemudian dilakukan secara berulang-ulang dan terus menerus akan menjadi kebiasaan atau budaya baik. apabila kebiasaan yang baik tersebut diikuti oleh individu atau komunitas lain yang lebih luas akan membentuk sebuah sistem kehidupan (peradaban) baik pula. sebaliknya apabila prosesnya dimulai dari internalisasi nilai-nilai yang buruk maka akan melahirkan karakter yang buruk pula. bagaimana apabila lingkaran proses terbentuknya karakter tersebut dikaitkan dengan terbentuknya karakter dan sistem ekonomi? untuk menjawab pertanyaan tersebut, lihat gambar 2. gambar 2. terbentuknya karakter islami, kapitalis dan sosialis apabila nilai-nilai yang diinternalisasikan adalah nilai-nilai ekonomi kapitalisme maka pola pikir yang terbentuknya adalah pola pikir kapitalisme. pola pikir ekonomi kapitalisme akan dieksternalisasikan dalam perilaku kehidupan ekonomi kapitalisme. perilaku ekonomi kapitalisme yang biasa dipraktekan akan membentuk budaya kapitalisme. budaya kapitalisme individu yang kemudian diikuti oleh individu atau komunitas (masyarakat) lain yang lebih luas akan membentuk sebuah sistem ekonomi kapitalisme. begitu juga apabila prosesnya dimulai dari internalisasi nilai-nilai ekonomi yang bersumber dari syari’ah islam maka sistem ekonomi yang dilahirkan adalah sistem ekonomi islam. apabila nilai-nilai yang diinternalisasikan nilai sosialisme maka sistem ekonomi yang dilahirkan adalah sistem ekonomi sosialis. oleh karena itu, maka jelaslah bahwa ilmu ekonomi adalah ilmu yang berkaitan dengan ilmu moral dan ilmu etika. ilmu ekonomi sebagai behaviour science dan moral science telah dimulai sejak jaman jauh sebelum masehi (2000-1000 sm) dan jaman praklasik (427 sm). etika dan moral dalam berekonomi telah ada dalam teks-teks india kuno, (iqbal & mirakhor, 2007:69), yaitu dalam teks vedic (2000-1400 sm), sutra (700100 sm), dan jatakas dalam budha (600-400 sm). pada teks-teks tersebut telah dibahas tentang adanya larangan pinjaman berbunga (riba). riba dianggap perbuatan yang menjijikkan dan bertentangan dengan nilai-nilai persaudaraan dalam masyarakat. pada jatakas dibahas adanya larangan bagi kasta brahmana dan kshatriya meminjamkan uang dengan memungut bunga. pada jaman praklasik yang dipelopori oleh plato (427-347 sm) dan muridnya yang bernama aristoteles (384-322 sm). kedua orang ini adalah tokoh ilmu etika dan ilmu perilaku, sumbangan pemikirannya dalam ilmu ekonomi yang sangat terkenal adalah tentang fungsi dan peranan uang dalam kehidupan. mereka mengecam orang yang memperdagangkan dan membungakan uang, dengan alasan bertentangan dengan etika dan merusak hubungan antarmanusia, karena fungsi utama uang jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 8, nomor 2, oktober 2007: 183 197 188 adalah sebagai alat tukar dan pengukur nilai sehingga uang menghasilkan uang dilarang. pemikiran dalam teks india kuno dan para filosuf yunani kono tersebut, sangat kental dengan nilai-nilai etika moral dalam aktivitas kehidupan ekonomi dan ini terus bekembang sampai abat ke 17. tetapi sejalan berkembang dan kompleknya aktivitas ekonomi, khususnya setelah berkembangnya pemikiran smithian dan konsep memaksimumkan kepuasan individu telah membawa dampak terjadinya degradasi nilai etika dan moral dalam aktivitas perekonomian. manusia cenderung berubah dari homo ethicus menjadi homo economicus sehingga menjadi sangat serakah dan eksploitatif dalam memaksimumkan utilitas dan sangat mengedepankan individualistik di atas kepentingan umum. dampak dari homo economicus tersebut adalah rusaknya ekosistem alam semesta yang pada akhirnya merugikan kehidupan alam semesta, sebagai penyedia sumberdaya dalam pemenuhan keinginan dan kebutuhan makhuk hidup khususnya umat manusia dan makhlukmakhluk lainnnya. pada saat sekarang manusia sudah tidak memperdulikan lagi mana yang halal dan mana yang haram dalam mendapatkan harta, kondisi ini merupakan indikator nyata dari degradasi perilaku manusia sebagai homo ethicus menjadi homo economicus. kondisi ini sebenarnya telah diperingatkan oleh hadits nabi muhammad saw yang diriwayatkan oleh imam bukhari dan peringatan nabi ini sangat relevan dengan kondisi sekarang, dimana manusia dalam mencari rejeki cenderung meninggalkan dan memisahkan kehidupan ekonomi dengan nilai-nilai agama, “akankah datang kepada manusia suatu zaman yang mana seseorang tidak peduli darimana ia mendapatkan hartanya: apakah dari (sumber dan cara yang) halal atau (sumber dan cara yang) haram” (hr. bukhari) ilmu ekonomi yang tercerabut dari rohnya sebagai ilmu etika dan moral telah menggugah para ahli ekonomi untuk mengembalikan ilmu ekonomi ke khitoh-nya sebagai behaviour science dan moral science. gerakan reformasi kembali kepada ilmu ekonomi sebagi ilmu etika dan moral, mulai mengemuka pada akhir abad ke20 dan semakin keras pada abad ke 21 ini. gerakan tersebut dimulai dengan mulai mewacanakan kembali pentingnya etika bisnis dan mulai diajarkan kembali pelajaran etika bisnis dan sosiologi di kampus-kampus ekonomi khususnya sekolah bisnis. dalam buku megatrend 2010 bangkitnya kesadaran kapitalisme yang ditulis oleh patricia aburdene (2005) menjadikan kekuatan spiritualitas dari pribadi sampai organisasi dan mengeksplorasi kesadaran ekonomi baru serta perncarian berbagai etika bisnis dalam batas legal kapitalisme modern adalah trend utama dalam dunia bisnis 2010. patricia pada halaman xix menyatakan bahwa ”kebenaran mendalam tadi adalah nilainilai yang kita anut dan nilai-nilai tersebut memainkan peran penting dalam perubahan”. gerakan pemikiran tentang etika bisnis tersebut adalah sebagai pertanda bangkitnya kembali ilmu ekonomi sebagai behaviour science dan moral science yang akan menyelamatkan kehidupan manusia di masa akan datang. kronologis lahirnya ilmu dan sistem ekonomi: mengapa ekonomi islam? ekonomi islam sampai sekarang masih diperdebatkan, khususnya oleh para ekonom sendiri. pertanyaan yang sering muncul adalah apa itu ekonomi islam dan mengapa harus disebut ekonomi islam? jawaban dari pertanyaan-pertanyaan tersebut akan menimbulkan perdebatan yang panjang apabila dalam menjawabnya mengapa ekonomi islam? (muhamad nafik hadi ryandono) 189 hanya cukup mendefinisikan apa itu ekonomi islam, melainkan harus dijawab pula dengan merunut perkembangan secara historis kelahiran ilmu dan sistem ekonomi itu sendiri. perkembangan lahirnya ilmu ekonomi sebagai ilmu yang mempelajari perilaku dan etika dalam aktivitas ekonominya dapat dilihat pada gambar 3. ilmu ekonomi pada awalnya adalah merupakan pemikiran para filosuf yang didasarkan pada nilai-nilai kebenaran etika dan moral bagi manusia dalam aktivitas memenuhi kebutuhan hidupnya. pemikiran-pemikiran tersebut didasarkan pada nilai-nilai etika dan moral yang bersumber dari kitab-kitab suci, perenungan, pengalaman historis dan nilai religius lainnya yang diyakini kebenaranya. pemikiran para filosuf tersebut kemudian dijabarkan secara naratif (kualitatif) atau pada awal perkembangannya pendekatan yang digunakan hanyalah pendekatan kualitatif dengan mengandalkan kamampuan imajinasi dan kualitatif normatif para filosuf. etika moral: kitab suci, perenungan, pengalaman historis dan nilai religius lainnya cendekiawan (ilmuan) kuantitatif kualitatif teori, ilmu dan sistem ekonomi: islam, kapitalis, sosialis dll ekonomi makro ekonomi mikro • manajemen • akuntansi • dll • ek. pembangunan • ek. regional • ek. moneter, dll pemikiran filosuf tentang perilaku ekonomi kualitatif dan normatif metode ilmiah gambar 3. kronologis lahirnya sistem dan ilmu ekonomi jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 8, nomor 2, oktober 2007: 183 197 190 perkembangan lebih lanjut berdasarkan pada pemikiran para filosuf yang menggunakan pendekatan kualitatif tersebut mulai didukung dengan pendekatan kuantitatif. dua pendekatan ilmiah tersebut dikembangkan oleh para intelektual (cendekiawan) yaitu tidak hanya melalui pemikiran saja, melainkan didukung oleh penelitian dengan metodolgi ilmiah untuk membuktikan kebenaran secara empirik. hasil dari pemikiran yang dibuktikan dengan penelitian ilmiah tersebut maka lahirlah konsepkonsep yang kemudian berkembang menjadi teori-teori ilmu ekonomi. berdasarkan uraian di atas semakin menjelaskan bahwa ilmu ekonomi adalah ilmu etika moral (moral science) tentang perilaku manusia dalam usahanya untuk menenuhi keinginan dan kebutuhan hidup yang relatif tidak terbatas, sedangkan sumberdaya untuk memenuhinya bersifat langka (scarcity). etika moral yang digunakan tersebut bersumberkan pada nilainilai (ideologi) dan agama. apabila nilai-nilai yang mendasari adalah nilai kapitalis maka lahirlah sistem ekonomi kapitalis, dan apabila dasarnya nilai-nilai sosialis maka lahirlah sistem ekonomi sosialis. apabila nilai-nilai yang mendasarinya adalah nilai-nilai islam maka lahirlah ekonomi islam, serta apabila nilai-nilai yang mendasarinya adalah nilai-nilai luhur bangsa indonesia yaitu pancasila maka lahirlah ekonomi pancasila. maka jelaslah apa yang membedakan antara sistem ekonomi yang satu dengan sistem ekonomi lainnya adalah nilainilai yang mendasarinya. pada era selanjutnya dan yang akan datang akan terus berkembang ilmu ekonomi yang lebih spesifik lagi misalnya ilmu ekonomi mikro (manajemen akuntansi dan sebagainya) dan ilmu ekonomi makro (ekonomi pembangunan, ekonomi regional, ekonomi internasional dan sebagainya). apabila sistemnya ekonomi islam maka akan berkembang, baik dalam tataran teori maupun praktek ekonomi mikro islam, ekonomi makro islam, perbankan islam, ekonomi moneter islam, manejemen dan akuntansi islam dan sebagainya. pertanyaan apa itu ekonomi islam dan mengapa disebut ekonomi islam? sekarang ini sudah terjawab maka tidak relevan lagi apabila mempertentangkan lagi. sistem ekonomi islam terbentuk dan lahir karena keyakinan dan faham yang dianut oleh para penganut islam yang dipraktekan dalam sistem ekonomi. begitu juga sistem ekonomi lainnya terbentuk dan lahir karena keyakinan dan faham yang dianut oleh para penganut sistem ekonomi tersebut. ekonomi islam ada bukan hanya diperuntukan untuk penganut islam saja melainkan untuk kemaslahatan semua umat manusia, karena islam diturunkan sebagai rahmatan lil ’alamin seperti disebutkan dalam al qur’an antara lain surat : al-anbiyaa’:107, al an’aam:48, dan al a’raaf:158; artinya: “dan tidaklah kami mengutus kamu (nabi muhammad saw) melainkan untuk menjadi rahmat bagi alam semesta” (qs: 21; al-anbiyaa’: 107). mengapa ekonomi islam? (muhamad nafik hadi ryandono) 191 artinya: ’katakanlah: "hai manusia sesungguhnya aku adalah utusan allah kepadamu semua, yaitu allah yang mempunyai kerajaan langit dan bumi; tidak ada tuhan (yang berhak disembah) selain dia, yang menghidupkan dan mematikan, maka berimanlah kamu kepada allah dan rasul-nya, nabi yang ummi yang beriman kepada allah dan kepada kalimatkalimat-nya (kitab-kitab-nya) dan ikutilah dia, supaya kamu mendapat petunjuk". (qs 7, al a’raaf:158) artinya: dan tidaklah kami mengutus para rasul itu melainkan untuk memberi kabar gembira dan memberi peringatan. barangsiapa yang beriman dan mengadakan perbaikan, maka tak ada kekhawatiran terhadap mereka dan tidak (pula) mereka bersedih hati.(qs al an’am 48) artinya: “dan kami turunkan dari al qur'an suatu yang menjadi penawar dan rahmat bagi orang-orang yang beriman dan al qur'an itu tidaklah menambah kepada orang-orang yang zalim selain kerugian.” (qs 17, al israa’:82) oleh karena itu para penganut madzhab kapitalis, sosialis dan madzhab ekonomi lainnya, jangan menjadikan ekonomi islam sebagai ancaman yang akan menggusur mereka dan sebaliknya juga demikian ekonomi islam. islam sendiri tidak mengajarkan memaksa mereka untuk mengikuti sistem islam sebagaimana disebutkan dalam al qur’an surat al baqarah: 256 dan surat al kafirun:6 sebagai berikut: artinya:”tidak ada paksaan untuk (memasuki) agama (islam); sesungguhnya telah jelas jalan yang benar daripada jalan yang sesat. karena itu barangsiapa yang ingkar kepada thaghut dan beriman kepada allah, maka sesungguhnya ia telah berpegang kepada buhul tali yang amat kuat yang tidak akan putus. dan allah maha mendengar lagi maha mengetahui”. (qs 2, al baqarah:256) jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 8, nomor 2, oktober 2007: 183 197 192 artinya: untukmu agamamu, dan untukkulah, agamaku". (qs 109, al kafirun:6) berdasarkan ayat-ayat al qur’an tersebut maka bagi para penganut kapitalis, sosialis dan madzhab ekonomi ekonomi lainnya maka sistem ekonominya adalah sistem ekonomi terbaik bagi mereka sedangkan bagi umat islam sistem ekonomi terbaiknya adalah sistem ekonomi islam. perbedaan sistem ekonomi sistem ekonomi islam, dan ekonomi konvensional (kapitalis, sosialis, pancasila dan lainnya) sangatlah berbeda, karena nilai-nilai yang mendasaarinya juga berbeda. perbedaan tersebut baik terletak dalam konsep maupun dalam implentasinya di lapangan. perbedaan aktivitas ekonomi islam dengan aktivitas ekonomi sekuler, yang menurut manan (1989:20) tersebut di atas dapat digambarkan dalam skema seperti pada gambar 4. ekonomi islam tidak hanya mempelajari individu sosial melainkan juga manusia dengan bakat religius [a(1)]. hal ini disebabkan karena (a) ilmu ekonomi islam (b) ilmu ekonomi modern a (1) manusia-(sosial namun religius) b (1) manusia-(sosial) a (2) kebutuhankebutuhan tidak terbatas b (2) kebutuhankebutuhan tidak terbatas a (3) kekurangan sarana b (3) kekurangan sarana (e) masalahmasalah ekonomi (e) masalahmasalah ekonomi a (4) pilihan diantara alternatif (dituntun oleh nilai islam) a (4) pilihan diantara alternatif (dituntun oleh kepentingan individu) a (5) pertukaran terpadu dan transfer satu arah (dituntun oleh etika islami, kekuatan pasar dan kekuatan bukan pasar a (5) pertukaran dituntun oleh kekuatan pasar sumber: mannan, muhammad abdul. 1989. ekonomi islam: teori dan praktek gambar 4. lingkaran aktivitas ekonomi mengapa ekonomi islam? (muhamad nafik hadi ryandono) 193 banyaknya kebutuhan [a(2)b(2) dan kurangnya sarana (a3/a4), maka timbullah masalah ekonomi (e). masalah ini pada dasarnya sama baiknya dalam ekonomi modern (sekuler) maupun ekonomi islam. perbedaan timbul berkaitan dengan alternatif. ekonomi islam dikendalikan oleh nilainilai dasar islam [a(4)], dan ekonomi sekuler sangat dikuasai oleh kepentingan diri individu b94). yang membuat ekonomi islam benarbenar berbeda adalah sistem pertukaran dan transfer satu arah yang terpadu mempengaruhi alokasi sumber-sumber daya, dengan demikian menjadikan proses pertukaran langsung relevan dengan kesejahteraan menyeluruh manusia (a/5) yang berbeda hanya dari kesejahteraan ekonomi (b/5). sistem ekonomi dibedakan dan terbentuk sesuai dengan nilai-nilai yang mendasarinya (basic value). basic value dari sistem-sistem ekonomi tersebut memberikan konsekuensi dan merupakan sebuah keniscayaan untuk diinternalisasikan oleh para pelaku ekonominya, kemudian dieksternalisasikan dalam realitas economic system paradigma lima sila pancasila islamic economic system paradigma marxis paradigma syari’ah islam socialism system pancasila system basis of the micro foundation: “muslim man” (ahsani taqwim) basis of the micro foundation: “pancasialis man” basis of the micro foundation: no private ownership of the means of productions philosophic foundations : individualism in the role of pancasila, mutuality and brotherhood philosophic foundations: dialectical philosophic foundations: individualism in the role of vicegerent of the god on earth with an objective to achieve ‘falah’ in this world and in the here after, accountable for performance price system: state police price system: market system and state police price system: market system and state police paradigma market economic capitalism system basis of the micro foundation: “economic man” philosophic foundations: utilitarian individualism based on the laissez faire philosophy price system: market system sumber: modifikasi dari muhammad arif. 1985. toward the syari’ah paradigm of islamics: the beginning of a scientific revolution. the american journal of islamic social science. vol. 2, p:98. gambar 5. perbandingan sistem ekonomi jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 8, nomor 2, oktober 2007: 183 197 194 kehidupan dan aktivitas ekonominya. perbedaan basic value maka membawa konsekuensi teori dan sistem yang dikembangkan dan penerapannya dalam realitas aktivitas ekonomi pasti berbeda sehingga perilaku para penganutnya juga pasti berbeda. perbedaan sistem ekonomi kapitalis, ekonomi pancasila, ekonomi sosialis dan sistem ekonomi lainnya adalah seperti pada gambar 5. dari gambar 5, tersebut dapat diambil kesimpulan, pertama, sistem ekonomi islam menurut pendekatan keilmuan sejajar dengan kapitalisme, dan sosialisme. kedua, siapapun dapat melihat sistem ekonomi islam tidak sama dengan kapitalisme maupun sosialisme. ketiga, sistem ekonomi islam tidak bisa dikatakan secara sederhana meskipun posisinya ditengah atau di antara kedua sistem ekonomi sekuler (kapitalisme dan sosialisme). sistem ekonomi pancasila sampai sekarang masih dalam tataran wacana dan hanya berkembang di indonesia saja sehingga mungkin belum dapat disejajarkan dengan sistem ekonomi lainnya tetapi kerangka dasarnya telah banyak dikembangkan. ekonomi konvensional memperbolehkan menjawab tiga permasalahan ekonomi; apa yang akan diproduksi, bagaimana cara memproduksinya dan untuk siapa diproduksi dengan tidak memandang apakah itu haram atau halal yang penting dapat memenuhi kebutuhan dan memdatangkan keuntungan secara materiil, misalnya peternakan babi, perjudian, minuman keras dan pelanggaran syari’ah lain dalam aktivitas ekonomi. pemenuhan kebutuhan dan pencapaian keuntungan yang sebesar mungkin serta kepuasan maksimum, merupakan ciri khas dari ekonomi konvensional yang eksploitatif dan kadang-kadang kurang memperhatikan keberlangsungan generasi mendatang. sifat eksploitatif tersebut, terkadang membuat eksistensi manusia yang merupakan subyek sekaligus obyek dalam perekonomian dinilai sebagai faktor produksi, sehingga boleh dieksploitasi seperti faktor produksi lainnya, hal ini dapat dilihat setiap industri selalu menekan biaya yang berkaitan dengan faktor buruh. mereka dieksploitasi dengan tanpa memperhatikan hak-haknya sebagai manusia, padahal para pemilik modal menikmati keuntungan yang besar di atas penderitaan dan kerja keras dari para buruh, dengan penghasilan yang hanya cukup untuk menopang hidup seharihari. ekonomi islam dalam menjawab tiga permasalahan ekonomi berbeda dengan ekonomi konvensional. ekonomi konvesional memulai menjawab tiga permasalahan ekonomi adalah dari menjawab apa, bagaimana dan untuk siapa memproduksi komoditas, sedangkan ekonomi islam dimulai dulu dari menjawab untuk siapa, apa dan bagaimana memproduksi komoditas. setiap aktivitas ekonomi islam harus berprinsipkan pada syari’ah islam. islam mengajarkan kehidupan ekonomi demi tercapainya pemenuhan kebutuhan dan keuntungan materiil maupun sprituil (rohani) baik di dunia maupun akhirat kelak. semua itu dalam rangka tercapainya kesejahteraan manusia dan sangat jauh dari sifat eksploitatif yang merugikan kaum yang lemah. menurut zadjuli (2005) yang membedakan sistem ekonomi islam dengan sistem ekonomi yang lain adalah: 1. asumsi dasar/norma pokok ataupun aturan main dalam proses maupun interaksi kegiatan ekonomi yang diberlakukan. dalam sistem ekonomi islam asumsi dasarnya adalah “syari’ah islam” diberlakukan secara menyeluruh baik terhadap individu, keluarga, kelompok masyarakat, usahawan, maupun pengusaha/pemerintah dalam memenuhi kebutuhan hidupnya baik mengapa ekonomi islam? (muhamad nafik hadi ryandono) 195 untuk keperluan jsamaniah maupun rohaniah. 2. prinsip ekonomi islam adalah penerapan asas efisiensi dan manfaat dengan tetap menjaga kelestarian lingkungan alam. 3. motif ekonomi islam adalah mencari “keberuntungan” di dunia dan akhirat selaku kholifatullah dengan jalan beribadah dalam arti luas. kesimpulan sistem ekonomi dibedakan dan terbentuk sesuai dengan nilai-nilai yang mendasarinya (basic values). basic values dari sistem-sistem ekonomi tersebut memberikan konsekuensi dan keniscayaan untuk diinternalisasikan oleh para pelaku ekonominya, kemudian dieksternalisasikan dalam realitas kehidupan ekonominya. perbedaan basic values tersebut berkonsekuensi terhadap berbedanya teori dan sistem yang dikembangkan dalam realitas ilmiah maupun realitas ekonomi. sistem dan ilmu ekonomi yang didasari oleh nilai-nilai yang bersumber dari al qur’an, al hadits, ijma’ dan qiyas (fatwa-fatwa ulama), maka terbentuk dan lahir eknomi islam. apabila nilai-nilai yang mendasari sistem dan ilmu ekonominya bersumber dari nilai-nilai kristen maka dapat melahirkan ekonomi kristen, dan apabila sumber nilai-nilainya adalah hindu, budha, kong hu cu, sosialis, kapitalis, pancasila, nilai-nilai kerakyatan dan sebagainya maka dapat melahirkan ekonomi hindu, budha, kong hu cu, sosialis, kapitalis, pancasila, kerakyatan dan seterusnya. semoga bermanfaat! 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(muhamad nafik hadi ryandono) 197 triyuwono, iwan. 2006. perspektif, metodologi, dan teori akuntansi syari’ah. jakarta: pt raja grafindo persada. truett lila j and dale b. truett. 1987. economic. st louis, toronto, santa clara, timer mirror, mosby college publishing. zadjuli, suroso imam . 1995. prinsip-prinsip ekonomi islam. fakultas ekonomi universitas airlangga. surabaya. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 23 no 1, april 2022 article type: research paper islamic bank customer satisfaction and services during the covid-19 pandemic riduwan1*, hendro setyono2, monikka yuliana1, and siti salma miftahul jannah1 abstract: the covid-19 pandemic has negatively impacted the islamic banking industry by increasing non-performing financing, decreasing savings, and weakening annual performance. this condition, if not anticipated, can lead to bankruptcy. therefore, customers need to get the best service so that their loyalty is maintained even though the conditions of islamic banks are difficult. this study analyses customer satisfaction toward islamic banks services during the covid-19 pandemic. the respondents are 308 customers. the sampling method uses purposive sampling, and the data processing uses the customer satisfaction index (csi) model. the results of this study indicate that customers are satisfied with islamic banks' services. so, they are willing to recommend other parties to become bank customers, not transfer funds to other islamic banks, will not move to conventional banks, and not withdraw deposits. however, this study has limitations because it has not included social performance as a factor that affects loyalty. in addition, most respondents are muslim, so future research is recommended to analyze satisfaction by including these two factors. furthermore, these findings provide value for policy implications and recommendations for islamic banks and stakeholders to increase satisfaction and service. keywords: islamic banks; covid-19; customer satisfaction and services jel classification: g2 introduction the covid-19 pandemic that has over the world has affected various aspects of life. as a health epidemic, the covid-19 pandemic has caused multidimensional economic, social and religious (dayrit & mendoza, 2020). in the economic field, covid-19 has caused the cessation of the national economy both in the micro and macro domains (ningsih & mahfudz, 2020). all entrepreneurs also experience the same impact, micro, small, medium, and large (ozili, 2020). covid-19 has increased new poverty or exacerbated pre-existing poverty levels (ozili, 2020). furthermore, the high unemployment rate due to layoffs, the closing of small shops, and distance restrictions have resulted in a decrease in income and purchasing power of the poor, which means increasing the severity of poverty (susilawati, falefi, & purwoko, 2020). affiliation: 1 department of islamic banking, faculty of islamic studies, universitas ahmad dahlan, special region of yogyakarta, indonesia 2 department of management, faculty of economics and business, universitas ahmad dahlan, special region of yogyakarta, indonesia *correspondence: riduwan@pbs.uad.ac.id this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v23i1.13796 citation: riduwan, r., setyono, h., yuliana, m., & jannah, s. s. m. (2022). islamic bank customer satisfaction and services during the covid-19 pandemic. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 23(1), 110-123. article history received: 27 jan 2022 revised: 14 feb 2022 23 mar 2022 20 apr 2022 accepted: 22 apr 2022 https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?user=yy_zurqaaaaj&hl=en https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?user=bn0l2fsaaaaj&hl=en https://pbs.uad.ac.id/ https://pbs.uad.ac.id/ https://pbs.uad.ac.id/ https://pbs.uad.ac.id/ https://manajemen.uad.ac.id/ https://manajemen.uad.ac.id/ https://manajemen.uad.ac.id/ https://manajemen.uad.ac.id/ mailto:riduwan@pbs.uad.ac.id http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/13796 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v23i1.13796&domain=pdf riduwan, setyono, yuliana, & jannah islamic bank customer satisfaction and services during the covid-19 pandemic jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 111 the covid-19 pandemic has caused severe economic effects in the financial sector and other sectors (anh & gan, 2020). the pandemic has a negative impact on the economy because of rising poverty and high unemployment (nicola et al., 2020). governments worldwide have the same concern. if the pandemic is not controlled immediately, the economic impact will worsen (roth, clausen, & möller, 2020). research conducted by nicola et al. (2020) found that the covid-19 pandemic caused the economy to stop in almost all economic sectors. for the financial industry, the direct impact of the pandemic is seen in the decreased ability of customers to fulfill their obligations to banks (wójcik & ioannou, 2020). at the same time, because people's incomes decline, many bank customers withdraw their funds, and this condition affects cash inflows, so there is no cash flow balance (akhtaruzzaman, boubaker, & sensoy, 2021). the financial industry must apply new approaches in responding to changes due to the pandemic (kraus et al., 2020). therefore, islamic banks must also implement effective strategies to improve their performance immediately. service that satisfies customers and is based on ethical values is one model of the customer approach to maintaining loyalty so that financial performance recovers faster (aman, 2019). the new poverty caused by covid-19 severely impacts its ability to fulfill its obligations to other parties (ozili, 2020), including financial institutions. the impact of the covid-19 pandemic on the business world can increase business risks, including financial risks for banks. these risks are more related to financing or credit for bank customers due to their inability to pay their principal and profit-sharing obligations. in addition, because many businesses cannot run, the potential for withdrawal is higher (ningsih & mahfudz, 2020). a decrease in bank customer installments, both principal and margin, and profit-sharing can increase non-performing financing (riduwan, 2019). this condition will reduce the income of islamic banks, at the same time, can erode profits. moreover, financial performance that is not good in the long term can reduce public confidence. if it is not anticipated, it can have an even worse impact, namely increasing business risk (ningsih & mahfudz, 2020). islamic banks must provide better services in these conditions so that customers do not run away (ikhwal, 2017). services as part of the marketing of islamic banks must still prioritize aspects of islamic values or compliance with sharia principles (abdul rehman, 2013). good marketing ethics can increase customer satisfaction and loyalty (ong, salleh, & yusoff 2016). business service orientation is customer satisfaction (hejase, hamdar, orfali, & hejase, 2012), where customer satisfaction can increase business volume (ong et al., 2016). the service approach of islamic banks must prioritize the sharia aspect because these conditions affect the public interest in using islamic banks (azhar rosly, 2013). good service, starting from the ability of islamic banks employees to provide open explanations and answer customer doubts about sharia compliance (ali & adawiah, 2013). research by othman and owen (2001) shows that islamic banks customers require comprehensive sharia compliance in bank practice and daily life from the management element. all stakeholders of islamic banks will get better benefits if the management of islamic banks riduwan, setyono, yuliana, & jannah islamic bank customer satisfaction and services during the covid-19 pandemic jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 112 can carry out a more humanistic and religious approach (ali & adawiah, 2013). meanwhile, according to echchabi and aziz (2012), islamic banks customers need the certainty of business continuity in the long term (solvability). customer satisfaction concerns the long-term perception of the company (beltagui, sigurdsson, candi, & riedel, 2017). satisfaction is also related to creating good value for customers (dauda & lee, 2016). value for customers can occur if solid relationships are built and carried out in a planned manner because it has become a company strategy (hong & marimuthu, 2015). according to fauzi and suryani (2019), customer satisfaction of islamic banks occurs when customers can tell good things about islamic banks to others. this indicator is crucial because it can increase a positive image of the broader community (akhtar & zaheer, 2014). another critical indicator related to satisfaction is the willingness of customers to repurchase old products (izogo & ogba, 2015). when loyalty is built, the company's ability to create satisfaction value positively increases sales, both for old and new customers (okumus & genc, 2013). the loyalty of islamic banks customers in tanzania has been studied by khamis and abrashid (2018), and the results show that customer loyalty occurs because of good service. thus, satisfaction and service are two interrelated things (vazifehdust & farokhian, 2013). furthermore, better loyalty will strengthen the company's foundation so that even in difficult situations, consumers will not run away or remain loyal (mosavi, 2012). fierce competition in the financial industry can encourage business shocks for islamic banks. however, loyal customers will generally remain loyal to the old company (othman & owen, 2003). therefore, the covid-19 outbreak, even though it is believed not to cause withdrawals of funds, is due to the high trust and loyalty of islamic banks customers. good service can be proven by management's ability to build effective communication with customers (bahman, kamran, & mostafa, 2013). reciprocal communication places customers in an important position and gets attention (efendi, 2019). therefore, islamic banks management needs to apply a more open communication approach model that allows customers to provide input and suggestions for improvement (alkalha et al., 2012). sayani's research (2015) on the satisfaction of islamic banking services in the united arab emirates shows that customers feel satisfied because services are integrated through technology. furthermore, the study of jabnoun and khalifa (2005) also states that bank customer satisfaction is influenced by their ability to build effective communication through technology. meanwhile, amin and isa (2008) found that the speed of service through technology can increase customer satisfaction of islamic banks in malaysia. competition for islamic banks occurs among islamic banks and conventional banks (ahmad, rehman, saif, & safwan, 2010). islamic banks' customer satisfaction can be achieved if islamic banks create an exciting difference (shahril, 2003). good service and becoming a characteristic will be more easily recognized and increase customer satisfaction (de bruin, 2018). islamic banks' customers feel rewarded if they are served with a more ethical and humanist approach (krishnaswamy & mutharasu, 2013). riduwan, setyono, yuliana, & jannah islamic bank customer satisfaction and services during the covid-19 pandemic jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 113 the results of fauzi and suryani's research (2019) state that customer satisfaction can increase trust in islamic banks. customer satisfaction is part of an attitude influenced by local culture (kashif, wan shukran, rehman, & sarifuddin, 2015) because islamic banks need to formulate customer service as an essential part of the company's strategy. the socio-cultural context as an essential part of the marketing strategy has been studied by malhotra et al. (2005). the results indicate the need to formulate a specific strategy to respond to customer culture. marketing ethics for islamic banks can be applied from planning, meaning that marketing strategies must present ethics (cahyani, 2016). islamic banking businesses that relate to humans must prioritize aspects of communication that are empathic and humanist (hejase et al., 2012). this pattern of relationships is built based on sacred religious encouragement, not merely a professional attitude as work guidance. the study of marketing ethics includes company values and internal business models built in the face of changes in the business environment (loungani, mishra, papageorgiou, & wang, 2017). a good understanding of the internal processes of islamic banks in oman can be an essential part of building marketing ethics (de bruin et al., 2020). the study shows that the cultivation of ethics for employees departs from understanding the company's vision and mission (alhakimi & alhariry, 2014). the financial industry has high pressure, thus demanding ethical consistency in its marketing (román, 2003). in intense competition and regulatory changes, islamic banks can still maintain marketing ethics even compared to conventional banks (bailey, albassami, & al-meshal, 2016). consistent marketing ethics impact customer satisfaction of islamic banks (sheriff & ismail, 2019). the consistency of marketing in maintaining ethics in challenging competition has been studied by zebal and saber (2014). their results show that ethics is an essential indicator for islamic banks and the leading force in business competition. meanwhile, de bruin (2018) found the importance of improving service ethics and sharia compliance together because both impact the trust of islamic banks customers in oman. becker (2018) also states that islamic banks need to improve marketing ethics because it is integral to sharia compliance. hong and marimuthu's (2015) research on islamic banks in oman shows that employees' ability to build marketing ethics correlates with retail banking customer satisfaction. good customer perceptions of company value, such as consistent marketing ethics, can increase company value and performance (schulz, martin, & meyer, 2017). service ethics can be an essential differentiator for companies in intense competition (madhavaram, granot, & badrinarayanan, 2014). customers can recognize the characteristics of a company because of consistent marketing ethics (beltagui et al., 2017). ethics is important because there is a strong relationship between internal and external processes that develop faster (de wulf, odekerken-schröder, & iacobucci, 2001). this relationship is shown by the ability of employees to provide services to their customers (ballantyne, 2003). good relations with customers at islamic banks are an essential indicator of implementing marketing strategies (basya, 2019), even customer relations with marketing interests and good social values (wu & li, 2018). the importance of good riduwan, setyono, yuliana, & jannah islamic bank customer satisfaction and services during the covid-19 pandemic jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 114 service leads to the achievement of maqasid syariah because the business relationship between sahibul mal and mudarib aims to protect the property or hifdzul mal (hassan, chachi, & abdullatiff, 2008). moreover, the ability to build mutual relationships is an essential indicator that islamic banks pursue corporate profits and pay attention to the interests of all stakeholders (iqbal & mirakhor, 2004). in addition, research by othman and owen (2003) states that the level of sharia compliance also influences public trust in islamic banks. sharia compliance is not only in financing contracts but is also attached to each behavior of islamic banks employees (maslihatin & riduwan, 2020). services based on sharia values such as honesty, empathy, and good communication can increase public trust in islamic banks (sangeetha & mahalingam, 2011). the covid-19 pandemic, which also affects the performance of islamic banks, demands better services (ningsih & mahfudz, 2020). therefore, the business conditions of islamic banks, which are experiencing pressure from the impact of customer businesses affected by the pandemic, have become a critical factor that requires islamic banks to implement better and more religious strategies for all their customers (hassan et al., 2008). customers need a practical, educational approach with a social touch and sharia values (anwar, 2018; suhendry & maulina, 2019; ilham, 2021; nazah, duasa, & arifin, 2021; wafiq & suryanto, 2021) (trang, nhan, hao, & wong 2021; nhan, pho, anh, & mcaleer, 2021 ). this approach is essential to maintain business performance during the pandemic and build stronger relationships so that customers remain loyal because of the service satisfaction they experience (ningsih & mahfudz, 2020). this study will analyze customer satisfaction with islamic banks' services during the covid-19 pandemic. researchers believe this theme is fundamental because it will help islamic banks formulate better strategies for maintaining and increasing customer loyalty during challenging conditions. research method this study takes the population of islamic banks customers throughout indonesia who have been customers since the covid-19 pandemic from january to december 2021, both individual and institutional in indonesia. while the research sample was taken using the purposive sampling method to get the correct data because the customer was selected from the start. the purposive sampling approach is critical to do in order to provide more concrete and measurable boundaries so that the data processing becomes more precise and results are accurate. the criteria for this research sample include having been a customer before the covid-19 pandemic, financing and savings customers, productive age, and being willing to be researched. the sample of this study includes administrators of sharia microfinance institutions, administrators of islamic social organizations, and unique customers of islamic banks. based on these criteria, the researchers obtained a total sample of 308 customers obtained from distributing questionnaires. riduwan, setyono, yuliana, & jannah islamic bank customer satisfaction and services during the covid-19 pandemic jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 115 the data needed in this study is primary data, namely respondents' answers about customer satisfaction with islamic banks' services during the covid-19 pandemic. the data was collected through respondents filling out a closed-type questionnaire through a google form which was distributed to islamic bank customers. . in addition, they are deepening the data through discussions with the management of the islamic banks association, the association of sharia microfinance institutions and the center of sharia cooperatives, and the parent of sharia cooperatives. the islamic banks referred to in this study are all types of islamic banks, islamic commercial banks, sharia business units and sharia people's financing banks. data processing of islamic banks' customer satisfaction during the covid-19 pandemic using the customer satisfaction index (csi) model. csi is used to measure customer satisfaction by considering the importance of the measured attributes. the various attributes measured are shown in table 1. table 1 various attributes to measure csi model no indicator compliance 1 carry out the principles of islamic law 2 no interest on every transaction 3 applying product service provisions in an islamic way assurance 4 security in transactions or accordance with health protocols 5 officers comply with health protocols in providing services to customers. 6 confidentiality of customer data is guaranteed responsiveness 7 employees willing to help customers 8 fast and efficient service 9 there are enough branch offices tangible 10 a comfortable waiting room and according to health protocols 11 check body temperature when entering the office. 12 a convenient handwashing area is provided 13 hand sanitizer is provided at the service area empathy 14 friendly and smiling staff 15 officers are open to customer complaints. 16 officers are open to criticism and suggestions. 17 officers are quick to respond to customers reliability 18 professional and trained staff 19 officers are sympathetic to customers. 20 punctuality in serving 21 technology service is going well. 22 internet islamic banking is going well. 23 mobile islamic banking is going well. 24 connected with e-money or w-wallet service the collected data were analyzed using quantitative description to calculate the customer satisfaction index (csi). csi is widely used by many researchers in various business sectors to measure the customer satisfaction index (kurniawati, 2013) . csi analysis is used to determine the level of customer satisfaction with islamic banking services with marketing riduwan, setyono, yuliana, & jannah islamic bank customer satisfaction and services during the covid-19 pandemic jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 116 attributes used by researchers such as compy of sharia, assurance, responsiveness, tangibles, empathy, and reliability (carter). the six variables are described in each of which there are at least three indicators. the csi calculation method uses four approaches: determining the mean satisfaction score, calculating the weight factor, making the wight score, and then calculating the csi. the calculation of the four technically uses the help of spss 16.00. finally, the results of the csi calculation are used to determine the level of satisfaction score, with the highest score of 5, which means very satisfied and the lower it shows dissatisfaction. result and discussion the calculation or scoring of the respondent's answers to calculate the level of satisfaction, with the results of the calculation are shown in table 2. table 2 results of customer satisfaction index no attribute average interest level weight factor average satisfaction level weight score 1 4.73 0.05 4.22 0.22 2 4.53 0.05 4.3 0.22 3 4.59 0.05 4.26 0.22 4 4.57 0.05 4.24 0.22 5 4.57 0.05 4.23 0.22 6 4.69 0.05 4.35 0.23 7 4.55 0.05 4.28 0.22 8 4.60 0.05 4.06 0.21 9 4.24 0.05 3.84 0.18 10 4.45 0.05 4.07 0.20 11 4.32 0.05 4.29 0.21 12 4.46 0.05 4.17 0.21 13 4.25 0.05 4.18 0.20 14 4.45 0.05 4.29 0.21 15 4.40 0.05 4.19 0.21 16 4.33 0.05 4.14 0.20 17 4.56 0.05 4.08 0.21 18 4.56 0.05 4.19 0.22 19 4.40 0.05 4.23 0.21 20 4.53 0.05 4.07 0.21 21 4.68 0.04 3.91 0.17 22 4.64 0.04 3.85 0.17 23 4.65 0.04 3.81 0.16 24 4.30 0.04 3.73 0.15 weight total 4,13 customer satisfaction index (csi) 0,83 riduwan, setyono, yuliana, & jannah islamic bank customer satisfaction and services during the covid-19 pandemic jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 117 the level of customer satisfaction with the quality of services provided by islamic banks in indonesia as measured using csi analysis, has service satisfaction criteria with values: not satisfied : 0,00 0,34 less satisfied : 0,35 0,50 quite satisfied : 0,51 0,65 satisfied : 0,66 0,80 very satisfied : 0,81 1,00 the results of calculations using csi analysis obtained a final value of 0.83 or 83 percent, presented in the table 2. the number 0.83 is in the range of 0.81 – 1.00 in the very satisfied category. these calculations prove that the performance of islamic banks during the covid-19 pandemic has been excellent, and customers feel delighted with the services provided by islamic banks during the covid-19 pandemic. while the calculation of the level of loyalty of islamic banks customers with four indicators, namely being able to invite others to use the services of a islamic banks as much as 95%, not withdrawing funds excessively by 97%, not moving to other islamic banks as much as 98%, and not moving to a conventional bank as much as 98%. if the four loyalty indicators are added, the average loyalty level is 97%. this figure shows that 97% of respondents who are islamic banks in indonesia have high loyalty. the results of the calculation of the satisfaction of islamic banking services and customer loyalty show a strong correlation where the level of satisfaction gets an average value of 83% and a loyalty level of 87%. this figure means that all customers who feel service satisfaction will have good loyalty. thus, there is a close relationship between service satisfaction and loyalty (khamis & abrashid, 2018). during the covid-19 pandemic, where the business of islamic banks experienced a severe impact, islamic banks did not reduce the quality of customer service. on the contrary, the service approach by complying with the health protocol has a high impact on customer satisfaction. this finding is in line with sayani's research (2015) results regarding the satisfaction of islamic banks services in the united arab emirates, where the findings show that islamic banks customers remain loyal despite challenging economic conditions. the loyalty and satisfaction of islamic banks customers are also influenced by the level of sharia compliance and the presence of a sharia supervisory board (fauzi & suryani, 2019). during the covid-19 pandemic, customers have high trust in islamic banks because of the consistency in implementing sharia compliance. furthermore, the role of sharia supervisors can also increase customer loyalty (sayani, 2015). the findings of platonova, asutay, dixon, and mohammad (2016) strengthen the findings of this study, namely the higher the level of sharia compliance, the better customer satisfaction. in other words, sharia compliance impacts increasing customer confidence in islamic banks. this is an important signal for islamic banks to consistently improve sharia compliance not only in products and services but also in employee behavior. riduwan, setyono, yuliana, & jannah islamic bank customer satisfaction and services during the covid-19 pandemic jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 118 another factor contributing to increased customer satisfaction and loyalty is the existence of service standards that prioritize strict health protocols. this condition can build a perception that islamic banks' services are safe from the transmission of the covid-19 virus so that customers feel comfortable because their interests are protected. therefore, according to aman (2019), islamic banks need to improve good branding so that customers do not quickly move to other banks. this is an interesting finding, where even though islamic banks carry out strict health protocols for customers, they are still satisfied with the service. therefore, in the future, islamic banks will continue to use health protocols to maintain customer trust and satisfaction. conclusion the covid-19 pandemic has caused national economic problems both in the micro and macro domains. islamic banks customers also experience relatively the same impact. various government policies in controlling the transmission of the virus have caused many businesses of islamic banks customers to have problems. the impact is the inability of customers to fulfill their obligations to islamic banks, such as paying principal installments and profit-sharing. because the outbreak occurs in the long term, the adverse effects are more widespread. for banks, including islamic banks, new concerns arise, namely the withdrawal of funds due to economic risks and to cover the necessities of life every day. in order to maintain customer loyalty, islamic banks have implemented improved marketing strategies during the covid-19 pandemic. islamic banks' marketing does take not only an economic approach but also health, social and religious. the health approach is applied to assure customers that the islamic banks will not become a cluster of epidemic transmission. this condition is essential so that customers feel comfortable transacting with islamic banks. the social approach is carried out by building social relationships that further strengthen customer relationships. the increasing social responsibility of islamic banks is an essential indicator of this social approach. customers feel the closeness and social attachment are getting better because islamic banks are present when customers need help. in contrast, the religious approach is carried out by increasing religious motivation and religious behavior. islamic banks managers intensively cultivate the spirit of istiqomah and are optimistic that they will be able to survive and rise and increase worship behavior. this improved service approach is proven to be able to increase customer satisfaction and loyalty. it is proven that during the covid-19 pandemic, islamic banks customers did not make excessive withdrawals of funds, did not transfer their funds to other islamic banks, did not move to conventional banks and were still willing to tell islamic banks to others. the four loyalty indicators can maintain the performance of islamic banks during the covid-19 pandemic. islamic banks' service satisfaction can also be influenced by the presence of social commitment or social performance. social performance shows the social responsibility of islamic banks in increasing social awareness, environmental sustainability and not just riduwan, setyono, yuliana, & jannah islamic bank customer satisfaction and services during the covid-19 pandemic jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 119 pursuing economic benefits. this study does not include social performance indicators, which are an essential part of customer assessment. therefore, further research is recommended to include elements of social performance as an indicator of customer assessment. another limitation of this study is that as many as 98.2% of respondents are muslim customers, even most administrators from social or islamic organizations. the 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(2014). market orientation in islamic banks – a qualitative approach. marketing intelligence & planning, 32(4), 495–527. https://doi.org/10.1108/mip-08-2013-0138 https://doi.org/10.15405/epsbs.2016.11.02.19 https://jurnal.polteq.ac.id/index.php/obis/article/view/18 https://doi.org/10.33258/birci.v3i2.954 https://doi.org/10.47654/v25y2021i4p46-88 https://academicjournals.org/journal/ajbm/article-abstract/2916b3f20699 https://doi.org/10.18196/jesp.v22i2.10533 https://doi.org/10.1111/tesg.12434 https://doi.org/10.1108/intr-08-2016-0250 https://doi.org/10.1108/mip-08-2013-0138 microsoft word 02-rini jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015, hlm.14-25 keterkaitan antara nilai tukar, tingkat suku bunga dan indeks harga saham di indonesia rini setyastuti fakultas ekonomi, universitas atma jaya, yogyakarta jalan babarsari 44 yogyakarta 55281, indonesia. phone: +62 274 487711. e-mail korespondensi: rsetyastuti@gmail.com naskah diterima: agustus 2014; disetujui: februari 2015 abstract: this study examine the relation between exchange rate, interest rate, and stock price. vector autoregression (var) is employed to simultaneously estimate the dynamic relationship of the variables. using monthly data covering the august 1997– may 2012 period, empirical results showed that there is no causal relation between variables in the all of period. there is only one way relation between interest rate and exchange rate in the crises period. there is a positive effect on the exchange rate when the interest rate increased. keywords: exchange rate; stock price; interest rate; vector autoregression (var) jel classification: g12, c32, e44 abstrak: penelitian ini menguji hubungan antara nilai tukar, suku bunga, dan harga saham. vector autoregression (var) digunakan untuk secara bersamaan memperkirakan hubungan dinamis dari variabel. penelitian ini menggunakan data bulanan yang mencakup periode agustus 1997 hingga mei 2012. hasil empiris menunjukkan bahwa ada hubungan kausal antarvariabel dalam semua periode. hanya ada satu cara hubungan antara tingkat bunga dan nilai tukar pada periode krisis. ada efek positif pada nilai tukar saat suku bunga meningkat. kata kunci:: exchange rate; stock price; interest rate; vector autoregression (var) klasifikasi jel: g12, c32, e44 doi: 10.18196/jesp.2015.0038.14-25 pendahuluan pasar modal mempunyai peranan yang sangat penting bagi perekonomian suatu negara. dukungan pendanaan dari pasar modal terbukti telah memberikan dampak positif bagi perkembangan perekonomian di banyak negara. diberlakukannya kebijakan-kebijakan perekonomian terbuka dan pasar bebas dan juga perkembangan teknologi yang pesat, investor menjadi mudah untuk mengakses pasar-pasar modal di seluruh dunia. fakta yang menyatakan bahwa pasar modal menunjukkan salah satu indikasi sehatnya perekonomian suatu negara, mengisyaratkan betapa pentingnya kondisi pasar modal di suatu negara (gupta, j. p., allain chevalier, dan fran sayekt, 1999:1) pesatnya perkembangan pasar modal di indonesia mulai terlihat jelas sejak periode 1990-an. rangsangan dimulai sejak paket deregulasi di akhir tahun 1988, ketika reformasi perpajakan mendorong investasi di bursa saham. di samping itu adanya pertumbuhan kredit perbankan yang terlihat melambat pada periode 1991-1993 yang antara lain dipengaruhi oleh pakfeb-1991 tentang prudential banking, mendorong sektor usaha untuk mencari alternatif pembiayaan yang lain, salah satunya adalah melalui pasar modal (wibowo dan gunawan, 1998: 127). banyak faktor yang mempengaruhi tinggi rendahnya kinerja di pasar modal, di antaranya adalah tingkat suku bunga dan fluktuasi nilai tukar rupiah. tingkat suku bunga merupakan nilai yang sangat menentukan besarnya nilai sekarang dari pendapatan dividen di masa keterkaitan antara nilai tukar ...(rini setyastuti) 15 yang akan datang. meningkatnya tingkat bunga akan menurunkan nilai sekarang dari pendapatan dividen di masa datang, sehingga kondisi ini akan mempengaruhi menurunnya harga saham di pasar modal. investor lebih suka menanamkan uangnya dalam bentuk investasi yang lain, misalnya dengan menyimpan uangnya di bank daripada menginvestasikannya dalam bentuk saham. hal ini akan mendorong mereka untuk melepas saham yang mereka miliki, sehingga saham yang dilepas akan meningkatkan jumlah yang ditawarkan di pasar saham, dan selanjutnya akan menekan harga. sebaliknya, menurunnya tingkat bunga akan menurunkan biaya oportunitas (opportunity cost) peminjaman. menurunnya tingkat bunga akan mendorong investasi dan aktivitas ekonomi, sehingga meningkatkan harga saham. di sisi lain kinerja pasar modal yang mengalami penurunan yang ditandai dengan menurunnya harga saham secara terus menerus, akan mengundang peluang bagi sektor perbankan untuk menawarkan dananya kepada perusahaan. penawaran yang semakin meningkat akan mengakibatkan peningkatan permintaan dana dari sektor perbankan ke masyarakat, sehingga tawaran tingkat suku bunga yang relatif lebih tinggi akan dapat merealisasikan kegiatan penghimpunan dana dari masyarakat. di samping tingkat suku bunga, terjadinya gejolak moneter juga menyebabkan adanya indikasi kecenderungan kegiatan transaksi di pasar modal menurun. hal ini dapat dilihat dari perkembangan beberapa indikator di pasar modal seperti indeks harga saham gabungan (ihsg), nilai kapitalisasi pasar, nilai perdagangan, dan jumlah emiten baru. hal ini dikarenakan berkurangnya kemampuan emiten dalam memenuhi kewajiban serta menghasilkan laba, sehingga mendorong tekanan jual oleh investor. situasi ini diperburuk dengan naiknya suku bunga perbankan sehingga mendorong investor untuk lebih senang menyimpan dananya di bank. di samping itu, turunnya kepercayaan investor dalam dan luar negeri terhadap perekonomian indonesia semakin memberikan tekanan terhadap pasar modal. memasuki agustus 1997, gejolak nilai tukar mempengaruhi pasar modal yang terlihat dari ihsg yang mulai mengalami penurunan yang tajam. meskipun indeks sempat menguat kembali setelah pemerintah melepaskan batasan investor asing di pasar modal, keadaan ini tidak berlangsung lama karena setelah itu nilai tukar terus mengalami depresiasi yang cukup tajam terhadap dolar. indeks mengalami titik terendah, yaitu pada tanggal 15 desember 1997 sebesar 339.536 (bank indonesia, 1998:121). sebagai alternatif pembiayaan dunia usaha peranan pasar modal merupakan suatu bagian yang penting dalam penyelenggaraan perekonomian suatu negara, adanya gejolak nilai tukar yang tidak menentu akan mengakibatkan turunnya fungsi pasar modal sebagai penyediaan dana dalam pembangunan. di sisi lain pasar modal yang menjadi salah satu barometer kondisi perekonomian yang memperlihatkan gejala peningkatan menunjukkan adanya ekspansi ekonomi, dan ini cenderung mendorong ekspektasi inflasi. peningkatan ekspektasi inflasi mendesak tekanan menurun terhadap nilai mata uang domestik dalam jangka pendek (ajayi dan mboja, 1996: 204). di samping itu juga turunnya produktivitas yang disebabkan kurangnya dana dalam proses produksi akan berpengaruh terhadap besarnya nilai tukar yang terjadi. dampak lain dari tekanan nilai tukar di dalam negeri akan meningkatkan biaya impor, meskipun dapat meningkatkan ekspor. penurunan yang terjadi terus menerus akan merubah ekspektasi masyarakat dan dapat mengakibatkan tindakan spekulasi. untuk meredam dampak negatif yang dikhawatirkan terjadi bank indonesia selaku otoritas moneter mengambil kebijakan menaikkan suku bunga sertifikat bank indonesia (sbi) yang akan diikuti oleh kenaikan suku bunga simpanan berjangka di bank umum. di sisi lain tinggi rendahnya suku bunga simpanan di bank akan mempengaruhi masyarakat dalam memegang aset yang dimilikinya. rendahnya suku bunga mencerminkan murahnya biaya memegang uang tunai, sehingga keuntungan yang didapat karena menyimpan uang di bank lebih kecil daripada keuntungan yang diperoleh dari memegang aset yang lain, salah satu di antaranya adalah memegang mata uang asing. fenomena di atas dapat dikatakan bahwa ada hubungan yang erat antara ketiga variabel tersebut, yaitu tingkat suku bunga, indikator pasar modal (dalam hal ini harga saham) dan jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015: 14-25 16 nilai tukar. beberapa penelitian yang dilakukan di negara-negara maju mengindikasikan adanya hubungan antara perilaku nilai tukar dengan indikator pasar modal dalam hal ini adalah harga saham dan antara tingkat suku bunga dan harga saham, penelitian yang sama jarang sekali dilakukan terutama di negara berkembang. penelitian ini menjadi sangat penting karena ketiga variabel yang digunakan merupakan bagian dari indikator tingkat kestabilan dalam perekonomian suatu negara, sehingga perlu diketahui bagaimana variabel tersebut dapat berkaitan secara erat, dan bagaimana pengaruh antarvariabel tersebut baik dalam jangka panjang maupun jangka pendek. studi/riset terkait. viceira (2007) meneliti tentang variasi waktu dalam resiko surat berharga sebagai covarian return surat berharga dengan return saham dan dengan pertumbuhan konsumsi, dan dalam volatilitas return surat berharga. dengan menggunakan model vector autoregression, hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa suku bunga nominal jangka pendek dan selisih pendapatan surat berharga jangka panjang dan jangka pendek mempunyai hubungan positif terhadap perubahan volatilitas return dan resiko surat berharga. ho (2009) meneliti tentang dampak fundamental ekonomi makro dan pasar saham dunia terhadap kinerja pasar finansial negara asean (malaysia, singapura, thailand, indonesia dan philipina). dengan menggunakan data panel dan model fixed effect, dapat disimpulkan bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi, tingkat suku bunga, nilai tukar berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap pasar/keuangan domestik. untuk indonesia, dikatakan bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi, suku bunga dan tingkat inflasi tidak berpengaruh pada pasar finansial. adam dan george (2009) mengkaji perananvariabel makroekonomi terhadap pergerakan harga saham di ghana. dengan menggunakan analisis pengujian kointegrasi dari johanson dan inovasi teknik penghitungan ditunjukkan bahwa ada hubungan kointegrasi antara variabel makroekonomi dan harga saham di ghana. singh dan arora (2009) meneliti tentang hubungan tingkat suku bunga dan pergerakan saham di tiga negara asia, yaitu india, china dan jepang. mereka membuktikan bahwa ada hubungan signifikan antara saham sensex dan suku bunga, saham nikkei dan suku bunga sensex mempunyai hubungan negatif dan lebih besar, sedangkan nikkei mempunyai hubungan positif. indeks shanghai mempunyai korelasi yang lemah. simpson (2003) melihat interaksi dinamis dan hubungan jangka panjang antara return saham bank dan variabel makroekonomi dan kebijakan moneter dalam suku bunga dan nilai tukar. dengan menggunakan model regresi, pengujian kointegrasi, kausalitas granger dan model vector autoregression, ditunjukkan bahwa tidak terjadi hubungan kointegrasi antara return pasar, stock bank australia dengan tingkat suku bunga dan nilai tukar jangka pendek dan jangka panjang dalam periode studi. hal ini tidak mencerminkan hubungan ekspektasi jangka panjang pada pasar perbankan australia. hondroyiannis dan papapetroo (2001) menguji pengaruh makroekonomi terhadap pasar modal di yunani. di antara variabel makroekonomi yang diteliti adalah suku bunga dan nilai tukar. mereka menemukan bahwa harga saham tidak menimbulkan perubahan dalam aktivitas ekonomi riil tetapi aktivitas makroekonomi, dan pasar saham luar negeri hanya dapat merubah sebagian pergerakan yang dapat dijelaskan harga saham yunani. mereka juga menemukan bahwa harga minyak merubah pergerakan harga saham dan mempunyai dampak negatif pada aktivitas ekonomi. mukherjee dan naka (1995) meneliti tentang return pasar saham di jepang. dengan menggunakan vector error correction model, dapat ditunjukkan bahwa pasar modal jepang berkointegrasi dengan kelompok 6 variabel makro. penemuan ini adalah sangat penting dan membedakan kombinasi-kombinasi variabel makroekonomi dalam sistem 6 dimensi. maysami dan koh (2000) mengkaji hubungan keseimbangan jangka panjang antara indeks saham singapura dan variabel makroekonomi terpilih dan return dari stock singapura, menemukan bahwa dengan vecm ditemukan bahwa pasar saham singapura sensitif terhadap tingkat bunga dan nilai tukar. juga ditemukan bahwa pasar saham singapura berkointegrasi secara positif dan signifikan dengan pasar modal jepang dan amerika (usa). kwan dan shin (1999) menggunakan uji kausalitas granger (1988) dan vecm untuk menemukan bahwa harga saham korea ber keterkaitan antara nilai tukar ...(rini setyastuti) 17 kointegrasi dengan variabel makroekonomi, yang terdiri dari nilai tukar dan jumlah uang beredar, dan kelompok variabel tersebut memberikan hubungan keseimbangan jangka panjang langsung dengan masing-masing indeks harga saham. juga ditemukan bahwa indeks harga saham tidak merupakan indikator leading untuk variabel makroekonomi. metode penelitian data data yang digunakan adalah data runtut waktu bulanan. data indeks harga saham diambil dari indeks harga saham gabungan (ihsg)pada penutupan pasar modal. data nilai tukar rupiah diambil dari data harian kurs tengah uang kertas rupiah terhadap dolar amerika (us$). data tingkat suku bunga diambil dari data tingkat bunga deposito tiga bulanan. ketiga data tersebut diambil dari statistik ekonomi dan keuangan indonesia (seki) terbitan bank indonesia. periode yang digunakan dimulai dari bulan agustus 1997 sampai dengan bulan mei 2012, dengan pertimbangan bahwa pada bulan agustus pemerintah mulai menerapkan kebijakan nilai tukar mengambang. alat analisis penelitian ini akan menggunakan pendekatan vector autoregression (var) yang merupakan data runtut waktu, yang mana setiap variabel endogen dijelaskan nilai lag nya dan lag variabel endogen lainnya. sims, 1980 dalam gujarati dan porter (2009) memperkenalkan unrestricted var untuk makro-ekonometrik. berbeda dengan persamaan simultan, model var merupakan model yang a-teori, karena menggunakan informasi yang lebih sedikit. dalam hal ini sims menyatakan bahwa jika terdapat simultanitas yang benar antarsatu set variabel, maka mereka harus diperlakukan secara sama. dengan demikian dalam model var tidak dilakukan pembedaan antara variabel endogen dan eksogen. tujuan dari var adalah untuk menginvestigasi respon dinamik dari suatu sistem terhadap adanya guncangan tanpa tergantung pada “restriksi identifikasi” yang melekat dalam model struktural atau “restriksi kontroversial” dari teori ekonomi. estimasi model var mengharuskan data series harus stasioner. tetapi apabila data series tersebut non-stasioner maka model vector error correction model (vecm) dapat digunakan dengan syarat data tersebut terkointegrasi (mempunyai hubungan jangka panjang atau terjadi ekuilibrium). persamaan model var disajikan pada persamaan berikut. 0 1 1 1 1 1 1                t t p t p t p t p t t p t p t er β α er α er γ ihsg γ ihsg δ ir δ ir μ 1)                t t p t p t p t p t t p t p t ihsg ρ ω ihsg ω ihsg φ er φ er π ir δπ ir ε 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 2) 0 1 1 1 1 1 1                  t t p t p t p t p t t p t p t ir α β ir β ir θ ihsg θ ihsg er er  3) di mana: ihsgt adalah besarnya indeks harga saham (dalam hal ini akan digunakan indeks harga saham gabungan/ihsg pada periode t. ert adalah besarnya kurs (nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar amerika) pada periode t. irt adalah besarnya tingkat suku bunga pada periode t. ihsgt-1 adalah besarnya indeks harga saham pada periode(bulan) yang lalu. ert-1 adalah besarnya kurs pada periode (bulan) yang lalu. irt-1 adalah besarnya tingkat suku bunga pada periode (bulan) yang lalu. ihsgt-p adalah besarnya indeks harga saham pada p periode (bulan) yang lalu. ert-p adalah besarnya kurs pada p periode (bulan) yang lalu. irt-p adalah besarnya tingkat suku bunga pada p periode (bulan) yang lalu. koefisien individual yang diestimasi dalam model var sering sulit untuk diinterpretasikan, sehingga digunakan impuls respon function (irf). irf menunjukkan respon dari variabel independen dalam sistem var terhadap guncangan dalam bentuk error term untuk beberapa periode ke depan. irf digunakan untuk melihat respon seluruh variabel terhadap guncangan satu variabel atau sebaliknya melihat respon satu variabel terhadap guncangan seluruh variabel. irf merupakan pusat analisis dari var. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015: 14-25 18 analisis selanjutnya didasarkan pada variance decomposition (vd) yang menunjukkan proporsi pergerakan dalam suatu rangkaian “own shocks” dibandingkan dengan guncangan variabel lain. apabila antarguncangan tidak berkorelasi, maka irf dapat diinterpretasikan secara langsung, yaitu merupakan shock pada masing-masing dependennya. pada umumnya antar guncangan terjadi korelasi sehingga tidak dapaat dihubungkan dengan variabel yang spesifik. vd berguna untuk meramalkan kemungkinan yang akan datang. semakin panjang rentang waktu maka vd akan menjadi konvergen. hasil dan pembahasan uji stasioneritas data sebelum melakukan pengujian dengan model var atau vecm, terlebih dahulu perlu dilakukan uji stasioneritas data, yang meliputi uji akar-akar unit (unit roots test) dan uji derajat integrasi (gujarati dan porter, 2009; stock dan watson, 2007). pengujian ini dilakukan untuk mengetahui apakah variabel yang digunakan stasioner. pengujian dilakukan dengan metode augmented dickey-fuller (adf), yaitu dengan melihat nilai augmented dickey-fuller (adf) hitung, kemudian membandingkannya dengan nilai adf tabel pada tingkat kepercayaan tertentu (enders, 2004). nilai adf dilihat dari t hitung (yang dianggap sebagai adf hitung) dari koefisien lag variabel yang diuji pada persamaan autoregresivenya {mengandung ar(1)}, kemudian dibandingkan dengan nilai kritis yang diberikan oleh dickey dan fuller. nilai kritis dari dickey dan fuller digunakan untuk beberapa sampel dan beberapa variabel. dalam hal ini, hipotesis nol menyatakan bahwa data tidak stasioner. jika nilai adf hitung < adf tabel, maka h0 tidak ditolak dan begitu pula sebaliknya. hasil olahan uji akarakar unit setiap variabel disajikan dalam tabel 1. tabel 1 menunjukkan bahwa semua variabel stasioner pada derajat nol karena nilai adf hitung lebih besar daripada nilai kritisnya, maka selanjutnya dapat disimpulkan bahwa model var dapat diterapkan. tabel 1. uji akar-akar unit level variabel adf ihsg -3,61002** er -5,66298*** ir -3,194844* sumber: hasil estimasi (tidak dilampirkan) keterangan: *** signifikan pada α 1%,**signifikan pada α 5%,* signifikan pada α 10% model vector autoregression (var) berdasarkan tahapan uji stasionaritas maka model yang tepat berdasarkan data yang digunakan adalah model var. dua pusat pembahasandalam model ini berupa impuls reaction function (irf) dan variance decomposition (vd) sangat sensitif terhadap pengurutan variabel. pengurutan variabel dilakukan dengan melihat struktur matriks kovarian residual dan menghasilkan urutan sebagai berikut: er, ihsg, dan ir. (1) analisis impuls reaction function (irf). irf menunjukkan seberapa besar pengaruh yang terjadi pada variabel-variabel endogen bila ada guncangan (shocks) sebesar satu standar deviasi pada satu periode waktu. baris dalam gambar 1 (lampiran) menunjukkan reaksi masing-masing variabel endogen terhadap guncangan (shocks) struktural yang terjadi dalam kolom. kolom pertama dalam gambar 1 menunjukkan guncangan er sebesar 1 standar deviasi akan mengakibatkan perubahan indeks harga saham gabungan mengalami penurunan (meskipun kecil) pada satu periode ke depan, dan mengalami kenaikan mulai periode ke-2 sampai dengan ke-10. guncangan nilai tukar rupiah memberikan respon negatif ir sampai dengan periode ke-2, dan setelah itu respon akan positif sampai dengan periode ke-10, meskipun dengan nilai yang relatif kecil. reaksi dari guncangan indeks harga saham (ihsg) tercermin dari penurunan nilai tukar (er) dari periode ke-2 sampai dengan periode ke-10. respon besarnya perubahan nilai tukar akibat guncangan indeks harga saham dalam satu periode ke depan tidaklah signifikan. respon tingkat suku bunga (ir) terhadap guncangan indeks harga saham adalah negatif mulai satu periode ke depan, setelah itu respon keterkaitan antara nilai tukar ...(rini setyastuti) 19 ir ini akan menurun sampai dengan periode ke-10. dengan demikian guncangan indeks harga saham akan mendorong menguatnya nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar dan akan cenderung mendorong penurunan tingkat suku bunga di dalam negeri. kolom 3 gambar 1 menunjukkan adanya guncangan perubahan tingkat suku bunga sebesar 1 standar deviasi. guncangan perubahan suku bunga ini memberikan pengaruh positif yang relatif besar bagi nilai tukar dari periode ke-2 sampai dengan periode ke-7 dan akan memberi pengaruh yang negatifmulai dari periode ke-8 sampai dengan periode ke-10. reaksi negatif indeks harga saham terhadap guncangan suku bunga terjadi pada periode ke2, dan responnya akan terus berlanjut sampai dengan periode ke-10 dengan nilai negatif yang semakin membesar. (2) analisis variance decomposition vd memberikan informasi mengenai kepentingan relatif atau besarnya proporsi inovasi setiap variabel terhadap variabel endogen dalam sistem var. dalam penelitian ini digunakan rentang waktu selama 10 periode. tabel 2. variance decomposition inovasi er ihsg ir total er 91,682 2,796 5,521 100 ihsg 0,0885 98,582 1,329 100 ir 6,415 3,436 90,49 100 sumber: hasil estimasi (tidak dilampirkan) berdasarkan estimasi vd dalam tabel 3 (lampiran), secara umum dapat terlihat bahwa proporsi terbesar yang mempengaruhi masingmasing variabel adalah inovasi variabel itu sendiri. 91,682 persen peramalan perubahan varians error pada er disebabkan oleh inovasi er itu sendiri, sedangkan sisanya ditentukan oleh variasi indeks harga saham (2,796 persen) dan suku bunga (5,521 persen). 98,582 persen peramalan perubahan varians error pada indeks harga saham disebabkan oleh inovasi indeks harga saham itu sendiri. variabel lainnya memberi proporsi variasi relatif kecil. proporsi variasi inovasi dalam variabel suku bunga juga tidak berbeda dengan kedua variabel sebelumnya. 90,49 persen didominasi oleh inovasi variabel itu sendiri, sedangkan variabel nilai tukar dan suku bunga masingmasing hanya memberikan pengaruh 6,415 persen dan 3, 436 persen. (3) hasil estimasi dengan var. seperti yang dikemukakan di atas, maka model persamaan yang paling baik adalah model var. dalam halaman lampiran pada tabel 3 ditunjukkan hasil estimasi dengan model var. (4) kriteria statistik. koefisien determinasi (r2) digunakan untuk melihat seberapa besar variasi perubahan variabel dependen yang dapat dijelaskan oleh variabel independen serta dapat digunakan untuk menunjukkan seberapa tepat garis regresi yang diperoleh. untuk estimasi persamaan dengan variabel dependen er besarnya r2 = 0,7478. dengan demikian variasi perubahan variabel er yang dapat dijelaskan oleh variabel independen di dalam model adalah sebesar 74,78% dan sisanya dijelaskan oleh variabel lain di luar model untuk estimasi model dengan variabel dependen ihsg nilai r2 sebesar 0,9776. dengan demikian variasi perubahan variabel ihsg yang dapat dijelaskan oleh variabel independen di dalam model adalah sebesar 97,76 persen dan sisanya dijelaskan oleh variabel lain di luar model. selanjutnya untuk model dengan variabel dependen ir nilai r2 sebesar 0,9895. dengan demikian variasi perubahan variabel ir yang dapat dijelaskan oleh variabel independen di dalam model adalah sebesar 98,95% dan sisanya dijelaskan oleh variabel lain di luar model. untuk selanjutnya adalah pengujian pengaruh variabel independen terhadap variabel dependen secara individual, yaitu dengan melihat nilai t statistik dari masing-masing variabel independen. uji ini digunakan untuk melihat apakah secara individu variabel independen berpengaruh terhadap variabel dependen. pengujian ini diawali dengan hipotesis nol (h0) yang menyatakan bahwa secara individu variabel independen tidak berpengaruh terhadap variabel dependen pada tingkat kepercayaan tertentu. uji ini dilakukan dengan membandingkan nilai t hitung dengan nilai t tabel pada tingkat kepercayaan yang digunakan sebesar 5%. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015: 14-25 20 nilai t – tabel (alpha = 0,05, n – k ), di mana [n = jumlah observasi (175); k = jumlah parameter tanpa konstanta (9)], dengan demikian besarnya tabel: 0,05, 166 = 1,658. untuk variabel dependen er terbukti bahwa variasi besarnya variabel tersebut hanya dipengaruhi oleh besarnya variabel itu sendiri pada periode yang lalu, ini dapat dilihat dari nilai t – statistik pada variabel er(-1) dan er(-2) yang berada pada daerah penolakan ho (nilai t-statistik > t – tabel). seperti halnya variabel nilai tukar, besarnya indeks harga saham ternyata juga hanya dipengaruhi oleh besarnya variabel tersebut pada periode yang lalu, yaitu variabel ihsg(-1). variabel nilai tukar dan suku bunga tidak berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap besarnya indeks harga saham gabungan. demikian juga untuk variabel dependen suku bunga (ir), terbukti bahwa besarnya suku bunga hanya dapat dijelaskan oleh besarnya suku bunga periode yang lalu, baik satu maupun dua periode yang lalu. hasil estimasi di atas tidak terbukti adanya hubungan antara ketiga variabel. salah satu kemungkinan adalah terjadinya krisis global yang dimulai sekitar pertengahan tahun 2008, dan memberikan dampak kepada perekonomian global. di bawah ini akan dicoba mengestimasi persamaan dengan membagi periode menjadi dua, yaitu periode sebelum krisis dan setelah krisis. pemotongan data dilakukan dengan mempertimbangkan fenomena dampak krisis di indonesia yang dilihat dari penurunan nilai tukar rupiah yang singnifikan yaitu pada bulan september 2008. hasil dari estimasi dua periode tersebut dapat dilihat pada tabel 4 dan tabel 5 (lampiran). untuk hasil estimasi persamaan periode sebelum krisis ternyata hasil yang diperoleh sama dengan hasil estimasi dengan menggunakan data secara keseluruhan. variabel er sebagai variabel dependen hanya dapat dijelaskan oleh besarnya variabel itu sendiri pada periode yang lalu. demikian juga untuk variabel indeks harga saham gabungan dan suku bunga. hasil estimasi dengan menggunakan periode setelah krisis, dapat ditunjukkan bahwa terjadi hubungan kausalitas antara variabel nilai tukar dengan tingkat suku bunga. ini dapat dilihat dari nilai t-statistik pada koefisiennya yang lebih besar dari nilai t-tabel nya. tetapi jika dilihat lebih lanjut, ternyata nilai koefisien nilai tukar dalam mempengaruhi besarnya tingkat suku bunga tidak sesuai dengan yang dihipotesiskan, dengan demikian dianggap bahwa pengaruhnya tidak signifikan. jadi hanya dapat dikatakan bahwa hanya ada satu hubungan searah yaitu besarnya tingkat suku bunga (tiga periode yang lalu) berpengaruh terhadap besarnya nilai tukar. untuk persamaan dengan variabel dependen indeks harga saham, hasilnya masih konsisten dengan persamaan yang menggunakan periode keseluruhan maupun periode sebelum terjadinya krisis. hasil estimasi dengan menggunakan periode sampel secara keseluruhan dan dengan periode sebelum terjadinya krisis, menunjukkan hasil yang konsisten. besarnya variabel nilai tukar, indeks harga saham gabungan dan tingkat suku bunga hanya dapat dijelaskan oleh besarnya variabel itu sendiri pada periode yang lalu. besarnya indeks harga saham dan tingkat suku bunga ternyata tidak dapat berpengaruh terhadap besarnya nilai tukar. dengan kata lain indeks harga saham sebagai salah satu indikator perekonomiandan tingkat suku bunga bukanlah penentu besarnya nilai tukar pada periode tersebut. pada periode yang sama ternyata juga terbukti bahwa indeks harga saham dan nilai tukar tidak dapat menjelaskan besarnya suku bunga. kemungkinan yang dapat dijelaskan adalah perilaku suku bunga di samping dipengaruhi oleh kondisi perekonomian, penentuan suku bunga juga sangat dipengaruhi oleh kebijakan pemerintah di sektor moneter sehingga indeks harga saham dan nilai tukar di sini yang diakui sebagai salah satu indikator kondisi perekonomian tidak cukup kuat untuk mempengaruhi besarnya tingkat suku bunga. hasil estimasi ini sama seperti studi empiris kwan dan shin (1999) dengan data korea yang menyatakan bahwa indeks harga saham tidak merupakan indikator leading untuk variabel makroekonomi. pada persamaan pengaruh terhadap indeks harga saham, dengan data keseluruhan maupun dengan periode yang terpisah ditunjukkan bahwa variabel nilai tukar dan tingkat suku bunga tidak terbukti berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap besarnya indeks harga saham. keterkaitan antara nilai tukar ...(rini setyastuti) 21 meskipun pada periode tersebut tingkat bunga sudah bebas dan diatur oleh masing-masing bank umum, tetapi ternyata hal ini tidak berpengaruh besar terhadap perkembangan pasar modal di indonesia. kemungkinan yang terjadi adalah bahwa fenomena disintermediasi perbankan yang disebabkan oleh berkembangnya pasar modal sebagai lembaga alternatif penghimpunan dana tidak berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap situasi di pasar modal itu sendiri, demikian sebaliknya. fenomena ini mengisyaratkan bahwa tidak terbukti adanya proses substitusi antara industri perbankan dan di pasar modal itu sendiri. dengan kata lain industri perbankan dan pasar modal masingmasing bukanlah alternatif sumber pembiayaan yang saling berhubungan secara erat. besarnya nilai tukar tidak berpengaruh terhadap besarnya indeks harga saham. hipotesis yang menyatakan bahwa menurunnya atau pun menguat-nya nilai tukar dapat mempengaruhi kondisi pasar modal di indonesia menjadi tidak terbukti. terjadinya depresiasi rupiah (nilai tukar rupiah menurun terhadap dolar)ternyata tidak cukup kuatuntuk mendesak kinerja perekonomian di pasar modal. dapat dikatakan bahwa terdepresiasinya nilai rupiah tidak mengakibatkan kemampuan perusahaan dalam menghasilkan laba menjadi rendah. hal ini dimungkinkan karena pada periode penelitian fluktuasi nilai tukar yang relatif stabil, sehingga investor berkeyakinan bahwa terjadinya depresiasi nilai tukar akan diikuti dengan pergerakan penyesuaian nilai tukar kembali ke posisi semula. dengan demikian investor tidak cukup kuat beralasan untuk menghindari resiko akibat depresiasi rupiah yang akan berlanjut dengan menjual kembali saham yang telah dibeli. ini sesuai dengan hasil penelitian ho (2009) yang menyatakan bahwa untuk kasus indonesia variabel fundamental ekonomi makro (pertumbuhan ekonomi, suku bunga dan tingkat inflasi) tidak berpengaruh pada pasar finansial. pada estimasi persamaan dengan menggunakan periode setelah terjadinya krisis global, dapat dilihat bahwa terjadi hubungan searah antara besarnya suku bunga dengan nilai tukar rupiah. suku bunga tabungan berjangka merupakan indikator penentu besarnya nilai tukar di indonesia. meningkatnya suku bunga merupakan salah satu daya tarik investor menempatkan dananya di bank, biaya memegang uang tunai menjadi relatif mahal dan dimungkinkan masyarakat akan merubah kombinasi portofolio mereka dari valuta asing ke tabungan. terjadinya depresiasi rupiah ternyata tidak diikuti meningkatnya suku bunga tabungan. rupiah yang terdepresiasi bukanlah satu-satunya alasan kecenderungan masyarakat untuk memilih menyimpan uang mereka di bank atau lembaga keuangan yang lain daripada menginvestasikannya di pasar modal karena lebih menguntungkan. simpulan pertama, hasil estimasi dengan menggunakan model var (vector autoregression) dengan periode waktu bulan agustus 1997 sampai dengan bulan mei 2012, dapat dibuktikan bahwa besarannya variabel nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar amerika (er), indeks harga saham gabungan (ihsg) di pasar modal, dan tingkat suku bunga hanya dapat dijelaskan oleh besarnya variabel itu sendiri di masa lalu. kedua, indeks harga saham gabungan sebagai salah satu indikator perekonomian dan tingkat suku bunga tidak terbukti berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap besarnya nilai tukar rupiah. nilai tukar rupiah dan tingkat suku bunga juga tidak dapat menjelaskan besarnya indeks harga saham gabungan di pasar modal indonesia. demikian juga besarnya nilai tukar dan indeks harga saham bukanlah indikator penentu besarnya tingkat suku bunga di indonesia. ketiga, dengan adanya pembedaan periode sebelum terjadinya krisis global dan setelah terjadinya krisis global, dapat ditunjukkan bahwa pada periode setelah terjadinya krisis, ternyata hanya ada satu hubungan searah yaitu antara variabel suku bunga dengan besarnya nilai tukar. meningkatnya suku bunga akan mendorong menguatnya nilai tukar rupiah. saran. meskipun dengan periode penelitian yang digunakan tidak dapat dibuktikan bahwa adanya saling keterkaitan antara ketiga variabel yang diteliti, pengendalian nilai tukar, peningkatan kinerja pasar modal dan penentuan tingkat suku bunga dalam negeri tetap menjadi hal yang sangat penting untuk penciptaaniklim perekonomian yang kondusif dan jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015: 14-25 22 juga akan sangat bermanfaat bagi pengendalian fluktuasi nilai tukar mata uang domestik. daftar pustaka adam, anokye mohammed and george tweneboah. 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(1998). dampak disintermediasi kegiatan bank terhadap efektivitas kebijakan moneter. buletin ekonomi moneter dan perbankan, juli 1998 hlm 123-140. keterkaitan antara nilai tukar ...(rini setyastuti) 23 lampiran gambar 1. impuls reaction function tabel 3. hasil estimasi model var variabel independent dependent variabel er ihsg ir er(-1) 0,995039 0,004947 2,18e-06 (0,07745) (0,02451) (0,00013) (12,8479) (0,20184) (0,01626) er(-2) -0,266062 -0,006141 0,000280 (0,10672) (0,03377) (0,00018) (-2,49299) (-0,18181) (1,51333) er(-3) 0,016253 0,009509 -8,68e-05 (0,07009) (0,02218) (0,00012) (0,23189) (0,42870) (-0,71553) ihsg(-1) -0,273670 1,165699 -3,39e-05 (0,24899) (0,07880) (0,00043) (-1,09911) (14,7934) (-0,07870) ihsg(-2) 0,251790 -0,152246 -0,000248 (0,38148) (0,12073) (0,00066) (0,66004) (-1,26109) (-0,37601) ihsg(-3) -0,017862 -0,026777 0,000223 (0,25257) (0,07993) (0,00044) (-0,07072) (-0,33499) (0,50983) bersambung jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015: 14-25 24 sambungan tabel 3.hasil estimasi model var variabel independent dependent variabel er ihsg ir ir(-1) 38,89609 -13,21432 1,705110 (40,2640) (12,7423) (0,06971) (0,96603) (-1,03704) (24,4587) ir(-2) 3,867952 18,54061 -0,823221 (73,4107) (23,2322) (0,12711) (0,05269) (0,79806) (-6,47670) ir(-3) -52,19204 -6,455621 0,097665 (41,1067) (13,0090) (0,07117) (-1,26967) (-0,49624) (1,37222) c 2548.020 -26,38516 -1,470526 (391.667) (123.950) (0,67814) (6,50558) (-0,21287) (-2,16847) r-squared 0,747841 0,977605 0,989509 adj. r-squared 0,734086 0,976384 0,988936 tabel 4. hasil estimasi dengan periode sebelum terjadinya krisis variabel variabel dependen independen er ihsg ir er(-1) 0,974784 -0,000774 4,13e-05 (0,09017) (0,02556) (0,00016) (10,8103) (-0,03027) (0,25413) er(-2) -0,259353 -0,004192 0,000290 (0,12343) (0,03498) (0,00022) (-2,10117) (-0,11983) (1,30481) er(-3) -0,002865 0,007113 -7,69e-05 (0,08118) (0,02301) (0,00015) (-0,03529) (0,30914) (-0,52549) ihsg(-1) -0,128162 1,160857 9,53e-05 (0,32340) (0,09166) (0,00058) (-0,39629) (12,6643) (0,16339) ihsg(-2) 0,105999 -0,126891 -0,000478 (0,49369) (0,13993) (0,00089) (0,21471) (-0,90683) (-0,53699) ihsg(-3) -0,002000 -0,071113 0,000305 (0,32646) (0,09253) (0,00059) (-0,00613) (-0,76854) (0,51771) ir(-1) 42,65551 -11,65200 1,700367 (44,7431) (12,6817) (0,08068) (0,95334) (-0,91881) (21,0765) ir(-2) -1,948258 17,83968 -0,823062 (81,4634) (23,0894) (0,14689) (-0,02392) (0,77263) (-5,60340) ir(-3) -49,02725 -7,507199 0,101334 (45,6287) (12,9327) (0,08227) (-1,07448) (-0,58048) (1,23168) c 2784,386 44,43830 -1,947031 (463,076) (131,251) (0,83497) (6,01280) (0,33857) (-2,33186) r-squared 0,721815 0,955954 0,988448 adj. r-squared 0,701123 0,952678 0,987589 -2096,236 keterkaitan antara nilai tukar ...(rini setyastuti) 25 tabel 5. hasil estimasi persamaan dengan periode setelah terjadinya krisis variabel variabel dependen independen er ihsg ir er(-1) 0,494018 0,017917 -0,000182 (0,14530) (0,11595) (5,7e-05) (3,40001) (0,15453) (-3,17386) er(-2) -0,211951 -0,022026 4,09e-05 (0,15930) (0,12712) (6,3e-05) (-1,33054) (-0,17327) (0,64910) er(-3) 0,529282 -0,037620 -0,000130 (0,15333) (0,12236) (6,1e-05) (3,45184) (-0,30746) (-2,15184) ihsg(-1) -0,357529 0,898572 -0,000160 (0,23121) (0,18450) (9,1e-05) (-1,54635) (4,87028) (-1,75488) ihsg(-2) 0,192406 -0,221872 3,78e-05 (0,31662) (0,25266) (0,00013) (0,60769) (-0,87815) (0,30241) ihsg(-3) 0,108896 0,223259 -1,09e-05 (0,24734) (0,19738) (9,8e-05) (0,44027) (1,13113) (-0,11174) ir(-1) -203,1748 -495,5077 1,592301 (314,776) (251,188) (0,12441) (-0,64546) (-1,97266) (12,7989) ir(-2) 1561,031 555,2077 -0,567551 (602,250) (480,589) (0,23803) (2,59200) (1,15526) (-2,38438) ir(-3) -1324,776 -85,82991 0,024477 (331,889) (264,843) (0,13117) (-3,99163) (-0,32408) (0,18660) c 1740,124 924,7882 2,520702 (1510,37) (1205,26) (0,59695) (1,15212) (0,76729) (4,22267) r-squared 0,951282 0,968856 0,997211 adj, r-squared 0,938386 0,960612 0,996473 schwarz criteria -527,8222 image (2).jpg image (3).jpg image (4).jpg image (5).jpg image (6).jpg image (7).jpg image (8).jpg image (9).jpg image (10).jpg image (11).jpg jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 24 nomor 1, april 2023 article type: research paper the covid-19 pandemic and the exchange rate: a lesson learned from indonesia sunaryati* and aris munandar abstract: this paper aims to capture the relationship between the covid-19 pandemic and the exchange rate. we utilized high-frequency data by utilizing daily data from january 21st, 2020, through june 29th, 2022. in contrast to the vast majority of research that disregards the incubation period of covid-19 in the number of daily transmission cases, we use the growth of covid-19 as a 14-day moving average of confirmed cases as the main independent variables. findings indicate that the devaluation of the rupiah exchange rate is long-term associated with the increase in covid-19 cases and deaths. according to the efficient market hypothesis, the rupiah depreciates due to the increase of covid-19 transmission, which is publicized by the media. in the midst of the debate over the impact of the pandemic on the exchange rate and using indonesia as a lesson learned for emerging market economies, our research is a recent study that examines this topic with completed data-generating processes – when the pandemic entered its last wave phase. in regard to exchange rate behavior, the disease outbreak channel exists. the government must restrict widespread media coverage of data on the spread of covid-19 while focusing on accelerating measures to control the pandemic. a low-interest rate imposed by the monetary authorities as an effort to stimulate economic recovery can also exert pressure on the exchange rate, necessitating the optimization of other instruments, such as foreign exchange intervention. keywords: indonesia; covid-19 pandemic; rupiah exchange rate; efficient market hypothesis jel classification: f31; g18; i18 introduction covid-19 has caused not only a health crisis, but also an economic and social crisis in various countries on an unprecedented scale. the imposition of lockdown and social distancing by the government in the form of restrictions on the movement of people within national borders and even across countries has disrupted the supply of goods and services. this then causes a supply-demand mismatch and disrupts the national supply chain (sethi et al., 2021). the covid-19 infection was first detected in indonesia on march 2nd, 2020 (see figure 1). social distancing measures and lockdowns imposed in many locations have been in effect since mid-march (olivia et al., 2020). it was then followed by the largest depreciation of the rupiah on april 3rd, 2020, which touched the level of rp16,622 per usd. it was the deepest level of affiliation: department of sharia economics, faculty of islamic economics and business, universitas islam negeri sunan kalijaga, special region of yogyakarta, indonesia *correspondence: sunaryati@uin-suka.ac.id this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v24i1.16110 citation: sunaryati, s., & munandar, a. (2023). the covid-19 pandemic and the exchange rate: a lesson learned from indonesia. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 24(1), 1-13. article history received: 09 sep 2022 revised: 19 jan 2023 27 jan 2023 accepted: 20 feb 2023 https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?user=ehbajv4aaaaj&hl=en https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?user=ylwd42uaaaaj&hl=en https://es.uin-suka.ac.id/id https://es.uin-suka.ac.id/id https://es.uin-suka.ac.id/id https://es.uin-suka.ac.id/id https://es.uin-suka.ac.id/id mailto:sunaryati@uin-suka.ac.id http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp http://dx.doi.org/10.18196/jesp.v24i1.16110 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v24i1.16110&domain=pdf sunaryati & munandar the covid-19 pandemic and the exchange rate … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 2 depreciation rupiah after the asian financial crisis in 1998, which reached rp16,800 per usd. from this phenomenon, it is expected that an increase in covid-19 infections has a depreciating effect on the rupiah exchange rate since the disease outbreak channel state that the uncertainty related to the unpredicted nature of covid-19 infection cases and related deaths, sends negative sentiments to the financial market which then made this thing has predictive power on exchange rate behavior (iyke, 2020). figure 1 covid-19 infection cases and related deaths in indonesia source: who coronavirus (covid-19) dashboard. the relationship between covid-19 and the exchange rate can be explained by the theory of efficient market hypothesis, the taylor rule, and purchasing power parity. firstly, the efficient market hypothesis states that markets are efficient, leaving no room to get excess returns by investing since everything is already fairly and accurately priced. under this hypothesis, news related to covid-19 infections refers to unexpected changes in the fundamental variables relevant to asset price determination (taylor, 1995). so, the exchange dynamics reflect all the information concerning the exchange rate (fama, 1970). taylor's rule suggests that the central bank should raise the interest rate when inflation is above target or gdp is above its potential. capital flow can be used as a variable to capture monetary policy (fang & zhang, 2021). the incorporation of the exchange rate into discussions of monetary policy is to augment a closed-economy taylor rule with the rate of currency depreciation. because the interest rate reacts not only to inflation and output but also to movements in the exchange rate. secondly, the taylor rule implies overshooting of the exchange rate following a shock (heipertz et al., 2022). the covid-19 pandemic can be seen as a trigger for economic shocks where, which has caused tremendous socio-economic disruption and induced capital outflow that depreciated the exchange rate. thirdly, purchasing power parity theory states that the law of one price applies; in other words, a freely traded good or service will have the same price in any country. this theory assumes that the market mechanism runs perfectly, meaning assumptions such as no transaction costs and taxes, homogeneous products traded, and the absence of uncertainty elements are met. purchasing power parity implies that exchange rate depreciation occurs because of the increase in the price level. in the case sunaryati & munandar the covid-19 pandemic and the exchange rate … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 3 of covid-19, the increase in price levels could be triggered by a shortage of supply due to restrictions on economic activity imposed by the regulator, or it could be due to excess demand from panic buying by the public. empirical literature related to the effect of the covid-19 pandemic on the exchange rate is still in the infant stages. the literature can be divided into two groups. the first group concentrates on cross-country evidence, while the second focuses on single-country evidence. benzid and chebbi (2020) evaluate the impact of covid-19 cases and related deaths on exchange rate volatility in europa, china, and the united kingdom. evidence from the garch model shows that an increase in covid-19 cases and related deaths will increase volatility. in terms of power prediction, iyke (2020) tests the predictive ability of disease outbreaks on exchange rate return and volatility in the 25 most affected countries by covid-19. evidence from the garch model shows contradictory results. an increase in covid-19 predicts the depreciation of five returns, namely usd–chf, usd–eur, usd– inr, usd–pln, and usd–sek, and predicts appreciation of usd–gbp and gbp–usd returns. especially for usd–cad, the predictability oscillates from appreciation to depreciation of this currency. in the case of volatility, the effect is also asymmetric; an increase in covid-19 could increase the volatility of usd-cad and isd-eur and could decrease the volatility of usd-sek and usd_gbp. focusing on exchange rate volatility in 20 countries, feng et al. (2021) find that an increase in confirmed covid-19 cases does raise exchange rate volatility. a comparison of the exchange rate response to the pandemic uncertainty between advanced and emerging economies was examined by sethi et al. (2021). the fixed effect model that analyzed 37 countries shows that an increase in daily confirmed cases and related deaths implies a depreciating country currency. regarding the effect of uncertainty created by the pandemic on the exchange rate, it tends to be appreciated in advanced economies, while in emerging economies, the result is the opposite. the higher sample was used by aquilante et al. (2022) by analyzing this phenomenon in 57 countries. a linear regression and panel vector autoregressive model prove that an increase in new covid-19 cases is associated with countries' currency depreciation. focusing on the spillover shock of the exchange rate in europa, japan, canada, and the united kingdom, narayan (2022) found that exchange rate spillover became 44% more important in the covid-19 period compared pre the covid-19 period. the cross-country studies mentioned above are complemented by studies focusing on single-level evidence. a study in india shows that an increase in confirmed covid-19 cases caused no change in the value of the exchange rate (banerjee et al., 2020). in colombia, a short-term colombian peso depreciation may be explained by financial market uncertainty, generated by the arrival of the covid-19 virus (cardona-arenas & sernagómez, 2020). some facts of exchange rate depreciation above contradict the research results in the following countries. in the philippines, an increase in the number of covid-19 daily infections appreciates the philippine peso (camba & camba, 2020). in korea, after seven days of new covid-19 cases, the south korean won tend to be appreciated indicating that sunaryati & munandar the covid-19 pandemic and the exchange rate … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 4 investors may have repurchased its currency after an infection spike (hoshikawa & yoshimi, 2021). some single-country literature also examines other aspects of the impact of covid-19 on exchange rates. narayan (2020) evaluates the evolution of the exchange rate from the point of view of shock persistence in japan. he found that in the early stage, the shock to the yen had a non-transitory effect, while in the subsequent stage, the shock became short-term or transitory. fang and zhang (2021) emphasize exchange rate fluctuation around the outbreak of covid-19. they found that the impact of the covid-19 pandemic on the rmb exchange rate is transient. the rmb rate rose steadily before the outbreak but fluctuated during the pandemic. the aforementioned empirical literature is the subject of debate. some studies found that an increase in the number of covid-19 depreciates the exchange rate (see aquilante et al., 2022; cardona-arenas & serna-gómez, 2020; sethi et al., 2021). another study found the opposite (see (camba & camba, 2020), some studies found mixed effects (see hoshikawa & yoshimi, 2021; iyke, 2020), and there is even another study that finds no relationship ( see banerjee et al., 2020). we shed light on this debate by analyzing the effect of the number of covid-19 cases and related deaths on the rupiah exchange rate using high-frequency time series data by employing daily data covering the period january 21st, 2020 – june 29th, 2022 (577 observations). using single-country evidence (indonesia) as a lesson learned for emerging market economies, our current study discusses this topic with completed data-generating processes – when the pandemic has entered the last wave phase. unlike most other studies that ignore the incubation period of covid-19 in the number of daily transmission cases that imply confirmed cases in a single day may fluctuate sharply, we follow duan et al. (2021) to consider it and use the growth of covid-19 which 14-day moving average rate of confirmed cases and related deaths as our main independent variable. in this context, the present research aims to investigate how covid-19 affects the rupiah exchange rate while controlling for the role of the jakarta composite index, interest rate, and world crude oil price. we employ an autoregressive distributed lag (ardl) specification to see the relationship between covid-19 and other determinant variables on the rupiah exchange rate that converge toward a long-run equilibrium in the presence of stationary and non-stationary series. the rest of the paper is organized as follows. section 2 focuses on the research method we used. we analyzed the results in section 3 and concluded in section 4. research method this paper aims to investigate the effect of the covid-19 pandemic on the rupiah exchange rate while controlling for the role of the jakarta composite index, interest rate, and world crude oil price. our sample consists of daily data from january 21st, 2020, to june 29th, 2020. (577 observations). we use numbers of covid-19 confirmed cases and sunaryati & munandar the covid-19 pandemic and the exchange rate … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 5 related deaths provided by world health organization. nominal exchange rates are obtained via google finance through morningstar, jakarta composite index from the indonesian stock exchange, and world crude oil price data from west texas intermediate (wti). in addition, the proxy of interest rate is bank indonesia's 7-day (reverse) repo rate. given the limitation of the availability of daily data, only selected explanatory variables are used as a factor affecting the exchange rate in this study. following duan et al. (2021) and considering virus incubation and detection conditions that imply confirmed cases in a single day may fluctuate sharply, we use covid19_growth, which is the 14-day moving average rate of confirmed cases and related deaths cases as our main independent variable as formulated below: 𝐶𝑂𝑉19_𝐺𝑅𝑂𝑊𝑇𝐻𝑡 = ∑ [ln(1 + 𝐶𝑢𝑚𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒_𝐶𝑂𝑉𝐼𝐷_19𝑡 ) − ln(1 + 𝑡 𝑡−13 𝐶𝑢𝑚𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒_𝐶𝑂𝑉𝐼𝐷_19𝑡−1)]/14 (1) efforts to transform the covid-19 variable in such a way in equation 1 also contribute to eliminating heteroscedasticity and avoiding spurious regression (wooldridge, 2020). henceforth, the functional relationship is formulated as below to investigate the relationship between the exchange rate and its determinant factors. 𝐸𝑅𝑡 = 𝑓(𝐶𝑂𝑉19_𝐶𝐴𝑆𝐸𝐺𝑅𝑂𝑊𝑇𝐻𝑡 , 𝐶𝑂𝑉19_𝐷𝐸𝐴𝑇𝐻𝐺𝑅𝑂𝑊𝑇𝐻𝑡 , 𝐽𝐾𝑆𝐸𝑡 , 𝐼𝑅𝑡 , 𝑊𝑇𝐼𝑡 ) (2) where, 𝐸𝑅𝑡 : the nominal exchange rate at time t 𝐶𝑂𝑉19_𝐶𝐴𝑆𝐸𝐺𝑅𝑂𝑊𝑇𝐻𝑡 : covid-19 confirmed cases growth rate in indonesia at time t 𝐶𝑂𝑉19_𝐷𝐸𝐴𝑇𝐻𝐺𝑅𝑂𝑊𝑇𝐻𝑡 : covid-19 related deaths growth rate in indonesia at time t 𝐽𝐾𝑆𝐸𝑡 : jakarta composit index at time t 𝐼𝑅𝑡 : the central bank interest rate at time t 𝑊𝑇𝐼𝑡 : world crude oil price at time t considering an integrated order of the stationarity of the variables (some variables are stationary at the level, and some variables are stationary at the first difference – mixed stationary), this study employs ardl bound testing developed by pesaran et al. (2001). this provides both short-run and long-run coefficient estimations. before conducting long-run estimation, a bound test for examining the long-run association among variables using f-statistics must be conducted first to check whether the null hypothesis of no cointegration among variables could be rejected. once its null hypothesis is rejected, it can be justified to estimate the long-run coefficients. instead of conducting analysis short-run estimations, this research focuses on long-run estimation to derive causal relationship inference and to test the research hypothesis. the long-run ardl (p, q1, q2, q3, q4, q5) equilibrium model is as follows: ln (𝐸𝑅)𝑡 = 𝛼 + ∑ 𝛽1𝑖 𝑝 𝑖=0 ln (𝐸𝑅)𝑡−𝑖 + ∑ 𝛽2𝑖 𝑞1 𝑖=0 ln (𝐶𝑂𝑉19_𝐺𝑅𝑂𝑊𝑇𝐻)𝑡−𝑖 + ∑ 𝛽3𝑖 𝑞3 𝑖=0 ln (𝐽𝐾𝑆𝐸)𝑡−𝑖 + ∑ 𝛽4𝑖 𝑞4 𝑖=0 𝐼𝑅𝑡−𝑖 + ∑ 𝛽5𝑖 𝑞5 𝑖=0 𝑊𝑇𝐼𝑡−𝑖 + 𝜀𝑡 (3) sunaryati & munandar the covid-19 pandemic and the exchange rate … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 6 where, 𝛼 denotes the constant term in the equation, 𝛽 is the long-run coefficients, while p denotes lag length of the dependent, and q1, q2, q3, q4, and q5 denote the lag length of the independent variables. 𝜀 is the error term with white noise in the equation. result and discussion level after june 17th, 1998, which reached rp16,800 per usd. covid-19 cumulative cases and cumulative related deaths in indonesia show an increasing trend. the highest value of cumulative cases was 6,086,212 people, and the highest value of cumulative related deaths was 156,731 people on june 6th, 2022. the jakarta stock index touched 3,937.63 on march 24th, 2020, the lowest level since june 12th, 2012, which at that time touched 3,889.52. in addition, the mean interest rate is 3.84 percent, while the mean world crude oil price is usd63 per barrel. the first step in analyzing time series data using the ardl model is that all variables have to be ensured that no variable is integrated of order two, i(2), or higher. table 2 shows the result of augmented dickey-fuller and phillips-perron unit root tests in a level form. it can be concluded that some variables still show inconsistent test results in terms of stationarity of the level (integrated of order zero, i(0)), except cov19_casegrowth and cov19_deathgrowth. while table 3 shows the unit root test in a first difference form. it can be said that all variables used in this study are integrated of order one, i(1). therefore, it conforms with the prerequisites of the ardl models. table 1 presents the descriptive statistics of variables used in this study, while figure 1 shows all individual graphs for series trends. during the study, the largest depreciation of the rupiah was rp16,622 per usd on april 3rd, 2020, which almost touched the weakest exchange rate (rp/usd) cumulative covid-19 cases (people) sunaryati & munandar the covid-19 pandemic and the exchange rate … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 7 cumulative the covid-19-related deaths (people) central bank interest rate (percent) jakarta composite index world crude oil price, wti (usd/barrel) figure 1 all individual graphs for dataset trends level after june 17th, 1998, which reached rp16,800 per usd. covid-19 cumulative cases and cumulative related deaths in indonesia show an increasing trend. the highest value of cumulative cases was 6,086,212 people, and the highest value of cumulative related deaths was 156,731 people on june 6th, 2022. the jakarta stock index touched 3,937.63 on march 24th, 2020, the lowest level since june 12th, 2012, which at that time touched 3,889.52. in addition, the mean interest rate is 3.84 percent, while the mean world crude oil price is usd63 per barrel. the first step in analyzing time series data using the ardl model is that all variables have to be ensured that no variable is integrated of order two, i(2), or higher. table 2 shows the result of augmented dickey-fuller and phillips-perron unit root tests in a level form. it can be concluded that some variables still show inconsistent test results in terms of stationarity of the level (integrated of order zero, i(0)), except cov19_casegrowth and cov19_deathgrowth. while table 3 shows the unit root test in a first difference form. it can be said that all variables used in this study are integrated of order one, i(1). therefore, it conforms with the prerequisites of the ardl models. table 1 descriptive statistics variables (unit) mean maximum minimum std. dev. observations er (rp/usd) 14427.92 16622.2 13213.24 445.459 599 sunaryati & munandar the covid-19 pandemic and the exchange rate … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 8 cov19_case (people/day) 2220089 6086212 0 2165381 599 cov19_death (people/day) 65514.17 156731 0 62769.63 599 jkse (index) 5965.69 7276.19 3937.63 747.855 599 ir (percent) 3.84 5.0 3.5 0.469 599 wti (usd/barrel) 62.99 123.7 -37.63 24.790 599 table 2 result of unit test in level variables augmented dickey-fuller phillips-perron constant constant and trend constant constant and trend ln (er) -2.5548 -2.5648 -3.2517 -3.2628 (0.1032) (0.2968) (0.0177)** (0.0736)* cov19_casegrowth -2.5893 -3.5477 -3.0152 -3.56425 (0.0958)* (0.0354)** (0.0341)** (0.0338)** cov19_deathgrowth -3.9309 -5.0160 -3.3945 -3.8485 (0.0020)*** (0.0002)*** (0.0115)** (0.0148)** ln (jkse) -0.9211 -3.2391 -1.1165 -3.3493 (0.7815) (0.0779)* (0.7109) (0.0595)* ir -2.8090 -1.5711 -2.9158 -1.5097 (0.0576)* (0.8034) (0.0441)** (0.8256) wti -0.3774 -3.8300 -0.4066 -4.0934 (0.9102) (0.0156)** (0.9054) (0.0068)** notes: the p-value is in parentheses. *, **, and ***, shows a level of significance of 10%, 5%, and 1% respectively. h0: variable has a unit root. the next step is determining the appropriate lag length using the akaike information criterion (aic). figure 2 shows the recursive search of the lag length. the result reveals that the model with the lowest aic is ardl(3, 9, 3, 3, 11) for model 1 and model 2 as the most appropriate model. table 3 result of unit test in first difference variables augmented dickey-fuller phillips-perron constant constant and trend constant constant and trend δln(er) -31.8852 -31.8585 -31.0859 -31.0626 (0.0000)*** (0.0000)*** (0.0000)*** (0.0000)*** δcov19_casegrowth -7.1030 -7.1081 -21.5189 -21.5075 (0.0000)*** (0.0000)*** (0.0000)*** (0.0000)*** δcov19_deathgrowth -5.1832 -5.1842 -23.4769 -23.4649 (0.0000)*** (0.0001)*** (0.0000)*** (0.0000)*** δln(jkse) -12.2460 -12.2927 -23.9573 -23.9728 (0.0000)*** (0.0000)*** (0.0000)*** (0.0000)*** δir -24.6415 -24.8512 -24.6462 -24.9165 (0.0000)*** (0.0000)*** (0.0000)*** (0.0000)*** δwti -22.6102 -22.6751 -37.4977 -38.3472 (0.0000)*** (0.0000)*** (0.0000)*** (0.0000)*** sunaryati & munandar the covid-19 pandemic and the exchange rate … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 9 notes: the p-value is in parentheses. *, **, and ***, shows a level of significance of 10%, 5%, and 1% respectively. h0: variable has a unit root. -7.1760 -7.1755 -7.1750 -7.1745 -7.1740 -7.1735 -7.1730 -7.1725 -7.1720 a r d l (3 , 9 , 3 , 3 , 1 1 ) a r d l (6 , 9 , 3 , 3 , 1 1 ) a r d l (3 , 9 , 1 2 , 3 , 1 1 ) a r d l (4 , 9 , 3 , 3 , 1 1 ) a r d l (3 , 9 , 1 2 , 3 , 1 2 ) a r d l (6 , 9 , 1 2 , 3 , 1 1 ) a r d l (3 , 1 0 , 3 , 3 , 1 1 ) a r d l (3 , 9 , 3 , 3 , 1 2 ) a r d l (3 , 1 0 , 1 2 , 3 , 1 1 ) a r d l (3 , 9 , 4 , 3 , 1 1 ) a r d l (6 , 9 , 3 , 3 , 1 2 ) a r d l (3 , 9 , 3 , 7 , 1 1 ) a r d l (6 , 9 , 3 , 4 , 1 1 ) a r d l (3 , 9 , 2 , 3 , 1 1 ) a r d l (6 , 9 , 2 , 3 , 1 1 ) a r d l (6 , 1 0 , 3 , 3 , 1 1 ) a r d l (3 , 9 , 3 , 4 , 1 1 ) a r d l (6 , 9 , 4 , 3 , 1 1 ) a r d l (4 , 9 , 1 2 , 3 , 1 1 ) a r d l (7 , 9 , 3 , 3 , 1 1 ) akaike information criteria (top 20 models) model 1: ardl(3, 9, 3, 3, 11) -7.211 -7.210 -7.209 -7.208 -7.207 -7.206 -7.205 a r d l (3 , 9 , 3 , 3 , 1 1 ) a r d l (3 , 1 0 , 3 , 3 , 1 1 ) a r d l (3 , 9 , 3 , 0 , 1 1 ) a r d l (3 , 9 , 3 , 7 , 1 1 ) a r d l (3 , 9 , 3 , 2 , 1 1 ) a r d l (3 , 9 , 3 , 1 , 1 1 ) a r d l (4 , 9 , 3 , 3 , 1 1 ) a r d l (3 , 1 0 , 3 , 0 , 1 1 ) a r d l (3 , 9 , 4 , 3 , 1 1 ) a r d l (3 , 9 , 3 , 4 , 1 1 ) a r d l (3 , 1 0 , 3 , 2 , 1 1 ) a r d l (3 , 9 , 2 , 3 , 1 1 ) a r d l (3 , 1 1 , 3 , 3 , 1 1 ) a r d l (3 , 1 0 , 3 , 7 , 1 1 ) a r d l (3 , 9 , 9 , 3 , 1 1 ) a r d l (3 , 1 0 , 3 , 1 , 1 1 ) a r d l (4 , 1 0 , 3 , 3 , 1 1 ) a r d l (3 , 1 0 , 4 , 3 , 1 1 ) a r d l (3 , 1 0 , 2 , 3 , 1 1 ) a r d l (3 , 9 , 4 , 0 , 1 1 ) akaike information criteria (top 20 models) model 2: ardl(3, 9, 3, 3, 11) figure 2 lag length selection summary table 4 bounds test results f-statistic k level of significant critical bounds remarks lower bound i(0) upper bound i(1) model 1: ardl(3, 9, 3, 3, 11) 6.0801 4 10% 2.2000 3.0900 cointegrated 5% 2.5600 3.4900 cointegrated 1% 3.2900 4.3700 cointegrated model 2: ardl(3, 9, 3, 3, 11) 4.4410 4 10% 2.2000 3.0900 cointegrated 5% 2.5600 3.4900 cointegrated 1% 3.2900 4.3700 cointegrated note: k denotes the number of independent variables. h0: no cointegration. sunaryati & munandar the covid-19 pandemic and the exchange rate … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 10 table 4 presents the computed f statistic based on the bound test. it shows that the computed f statistic is more than both the lower bound and upper bound, even at the lowest significant level, so, the null hypothesis of no cointegration can be rejected. it can be concluded that there is a long-run cointegrating relationship among variables used in this study. these results justify the use of long-run estimates of the ardl model. table 5 estimated long-run coefficients dependent variable: ln (er) model 1 model 2 ardl(3, 9, 3, 3, 11) ardl(3, 9, 3, 3, 11) cov19_casegrowth 0.4282*** (0.0587) cov19_deathgrowth 0.4866*** (0.0838) ln (jkse) -0.2164*** -0.1857*** (0.0474) (0.0561) ir -0.0306*** -0.0195** (0.0083) (0.0093) wti 0.0010*** 0.0010*** (0.0002) (0.0003) constant 11.4989*** 11.1962*** (0.4099) (0.4877) n 577 577 h0: no serial correlation1 0.4337 0.7004 note: 1shows prob. chi-square of breusch-godfrey serial correlation lm test. *, **, and ***, shows a level of significance of 10%, 5%, and 1% respectively. the standard error is in brackets. table 5, reports the result of long-run estimates measuring the effect of covid-19 infection cases and related deaths, as well as other control variables on the rupiah exchange rate. both model 1 and model 2 used ardl(3, 9, 3, 3, 11). they are nonautocorrelation as breusch-godfrey serial correlation lm test resulting failed to reject the null hypothesis. the values of the long-run coefficients indicate that the growth of covid19 infection cases in indonesia has a positif effect on the rupiah exchange rate. in logarithmic form, it can be interpreted that a 1 percent increase in the growth of covid19 infection cases causes a 0.43 percent increase (depreciation) in the rupiah exchange rate. similarly, a 1 percent increase in the growth of covid-19-related deaths causes a 0.49 percent increase (depreciation) in the rupiah exchange rate. these results show that the increase in covid-19 cases and related deaths are related to the depreciation in the rupiah exchange rate. the rupiah exchange rate against the usd has weakened due to sunaryati & munandar the covid-19 pandemic and the exchange rate … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 11 economic disruption caused by the covid-19 pandemic. it confirms the existence of the disease outbreak channel and supports the findings of several studies conducted by aquilante et al. (2022), cardona-arenas and serna-gómez (2020), and sethi et al. (2021). the increase in the spread of covid-19, which is broadcasted by the media, drives market sentiment to be negative, so through the efficient market hypothesis, the available information causes the rupiah to be depreciated. the jakarta stock index has a negative effect on the rupiah exchange rate. in logarithmic form, it can be interpreted that a 1 percent increase in the jakarta stock index causes a 0.22 percent decrease (appreciation) in the rupiah exchange rate. rising stock prices indicate that portfolio investment in indonesia is profitable. it attracts foreign investors to put their funds into the indonesian stock market. the purchase of indonesian shares increases the demand for the rupiah, so its currency appreciates. hoshikawa and yoshimi (2021) found similar results, the decrease in foreign investors' holdings of domestic stocks, and indirectly leads to the depreciation of the south korean won. the movement of stock prices will affect the foreign domestic stock ownership changes, thereby affecting the exchange rate. another study by prawoto and putra (2020) found that an appreciation in the rupiah exchange rate can reduce the industry's comparative advantage, which then lowers the jakarta stock index. the competitiveness of indonesian products is nonindependent of natural resources and processed using low technology (suparmono et al., 2022). this low-value-added product is highly vulnerable to exchange rate fluctuations. central bank interest rates have a negative effect on the rupiah exchange rate. a 1 percent increase in the central bank interest rate causes a 3.06 percent decrease (appreciation) in the rupiah exchange rate. raising interest rates has increased the demand for the rupiah and appreciated its exchange rate. this finding supports the study conducted by arintoko and kadarwati (2022) in the case of indonesia, fang and zhang (2021) in the case of rmb china, and garg and prabheesh (2021) in a case of brazil, russia, india, china, and south africa (brics countries) and also pham (2019) in case of vietnam. bank indonesia's 7-days (reverse) repo rate as a proxy of the central bank interest rate has the highest effect compared to other explanatory variables used in this study in maintaining the rupiah exchange rate. so, using monetary policy in dealing with exchange rate dynamics is still effective during the covid-19 outbreak. the remaining variable – world crude oil price is found to have a positive effect on the rupiah exchange rate. 1 usd increase in world crude oil price caused a 0.1 percent increase (depreciation) in the rupiah exchange rate. it indicates that indonesia's dependence as a net importer of crude oil has consequences for the need to maintain foreign exchange reserves as a means of payment for imports. the increase in the price of crude oil increases the amount of foreign currency to be purchased, thus increasing the supply of the rupiah. this has contributed to the weakening of the rupiah exchange rate. this finding contradicts the study of cardona-arenas and serna-gómez (2020). it is because cardona-arenas and serna-gómez (2020) use the case of colombia, which is a net exporter of crude oil, so when crude oil prices rise, it increases the demand for the colombian peso currency, and its currency will appreciate. sunaryati & munandar the covid-19 pandemic and the exchange rate … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 12 conclusion we analyzed the effect of the number of covid-19 cases and related deaths on the rupiah exchange rate using daily time series data over the period january 21st, 2020 – june 29th, 2022, we provide evidence indicating an increase in covid-19 cases and related deaths depreciated rupiah exchange rate. this result indicates that the information available to market participants related to data on the spread of covid-19 has exposed them to uncertainty. it then, through efficient market hypothesis, makes the price of rupiah currency depreciate. in addition, another important finding is that the effect of interest rates on the rupiah exchange rate shows a convincing magnitude. it indicates that interest rates are effective in maintaining the rupiah exchange rate. overall, we found that the disease outbreak channel exists in the case of exchange rate behavior. this result suggests that the government needs to suppress massive news related to data on the spread of covid-19 in various media. data on the spread of covid19 is openly available at who, so the public who wants to know this information can easily access it. the government should better encourage media channels to provide news that builds optimism, such as the government's real steps in controlling the spread of the virus and the progress of vaccination so that foreign investors are confident about indonesia's economic prospects. because the spread of covid-19 has caused the depreciation of the exchange rate, actions to control and resolve a pandemic are essential, so 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(2021). economic consequences of covid-19 pandemic: an analysis of exchange rate behaviour. organizations and markets in emerging economies, 12(2), 258–284. https://doi.org/10.15388/omee.2021.12.56 suparmono, s., suandana, e., & ilmas, f. (2022). determining competitiveness of indonesian export commodities using revealed comparative analysis. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 23(1), 66–80. https://doi.org/10.18196/jesp.v23i1.13557 taylor, m. p. (1995). the economics of exchange rates. journal of economic literature, 33(1), 13–47. retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/2728909 wooldridge, j. m. (2020). introductory econometrics: a modern approach (7th ed.). cengage learning. https://doi.org/10.15388/omee.2021.12.56 https://doi.org/10.18196/jesp.v23i1.13557 http://www.jstor.org/stable/2728909 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 23 no 1, april 2022 article type: research paper new evidence on ethnic diversity and social capital in indonesia muhammad ryan sanjaya abstract: this study analyzes the relationship between the various measures of ethnic diversity and social capital in indonesia, particularly trust and tolerance (towards other religions and other ethnic groups), using a nationally representative survey. the 2009 national socioeconomic survey asked almost 300 thousand individuals on social capital from the 2010 population census data used to construct measures of ethnic and religious diversity. the study’s main contribution to the literature is the inclusion of ethnic similarities in the construction of these diversity variables using linguistic tree data taken from ethnologue. using the multiple linear regression method, the study found that all measures of diversity are negatively associated with trust but are positively associated with tolerance, even after controlling for individual-, householdand district-level characteristics. anticipating the possibility of endogeneity in the diversity variables, this study uses geographical variables to instrument these variables. nevertheless, the use of the instrumental variable regression method does not change the main result. keywords: ethnic diversity; social capital; trust; tolerance; indonesia jel classification: d19; o53; z13 introduction the economics literature on the role of ethnic diversity is vast. some early studies, such as easterly and levine (1997), tried to link ethnic diversity with economic growth in sub-saharan africa wherein the two showed an inverse relationship. the following literature on this topic has included additional controls such as interacting the measure of ethnic diversity with democracy (alesina & la ferrara, 2005) and controlling for migration (bove & elia, 2017), to linking it with other socioeconomic variables such as trust (algan & cahuc, 2014) and conflict (esteban et al., 2012), to find the sources of such diversity (ahlerup & olsson, 2012; ashraf & galor, 2013; michalopoulos, 2012; moslehpour et al., 2021). some studies linked ethnic diversity with socioeconomic variables in indonesia, such as how it can affect public goods provision (alesina et al., 2019; siburian, 2019), social capital (mavridis, 2015), and conflict (bazzi et al., 2019). affiliation: department of economics, faculty of economics and business, universitas gadjah mada, special region of yogyakarta, indonesia correspondence: m.ryan.sanjaya@ugm.ac.id this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v23i1.13863 citation: sanjaya, m. r. (2022). new evidence on ethnic diversity and social capital in indonesia. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 23(1), 35-50. article history received: 02 feb 2022 revised: 13 mar 2022 28 mar 2022 accepted: 29 mar 2022 https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?hl=en&user=-ubt1poaaaaj https://economics.feb.ugm.ac.id/ https://economics.feb.ugm.ac.id/ https://economics.feb.ugm.ac.id/ https://economics.feb.ugm.ac.id/ mailto:m.ryan.sanjaya@ugm.ac.id http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/13863 https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v23i1.13863&domain=pdf https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ sanjaya new evidence on ethnic diversity and social capital in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 36 due to the limitations set, this study will only discuss how ethnic diversity is related to social capital such as trust and tolerance. social capital is an important feature of a society that would help members of different ethnic, religious, and other groups effectively achieve the goals of the community. it is only with the trust towards others and respecting differences that society would function, without the need or minimize the necessity of having formal institutions. therefore, it is important to understand how the many different members of a society could work together. indonesia, in particular, is blessed with a sheer amount of ethnocultural diversity due to its unique geographical locations. the 2010 census data shows the country’s population speaks 1,204 different languages and there were 964 ethnic groups. such diversity is a real challenge to not only the government in ensuring that the policies are inclusive but also to grassroots communities that deal with members of different groups daily. the association between social capital, such as trust, and ethnic diversity are not particularly clear. there are three often cited theories on how social capital may be related. the first theory, often dubbed as constrict or “hunkering down” theory, predicts that diversity makes people trust less towards everyone, which implies lower (withingroup) trust and (outgroup) tolerance (putnam, 2007). the second is “conflict theory” which predicts that the more diverse a community is, the higher the trust and lower tolerance (blalock, 1967). the reason for such prediction is that the perception of threat (from an outsider) makes people increase the bonding among the same group while, at the same time, increasing their prejudice towards the outsider. finally, the “contact theory” is more optimistic as diversity is expected to increase both trust and tolerance (allport, 1954). the rationale behind the theory is that contact with out of the group members would bridge differences and therefore increase the social capital. empirically, some studies show how the two seem to have a negative correlation. for example, in a cross-country study, trust was found to be lower in a society that is heterogeneous (alesina & la ferrara, 2002). whereas in another cross-country study, no robust relationship was found for these variables per se (finseraas & jakobsson, 2012), but when multidimensional social structures are introduced, the negative association emerges. other variables are also found to be associated with trusts, such as the positive association between trust and economic performance (algan & cahuc, 2013), the negative correlation between trust and income inequality (bjørnskov, 2008), and that females tend to trust more (falk et al., 2018). a whole chapter in the handbook of economic growth was also dedicated to research on not only the relationships between social capital and economic performance but also with institutions (algan & cahuc, 2014). the importance of the latter is also expounded in a recent review paper that relates culture—which includes generalized trust—with institutions (alesina & giuliano, 2015). more recently, a review study shows the prediction from the contact theory seems to have less support than the alternatives as most empirical studies indicate a negative relationship between social trust and ethnic diversity (dinesen & sønderskov, 2017). the literature is also not limited to cross-country but also within-country variations, including those in the context of developing countries such as indonesia. with hundreds of local languages spoken by 273.5 million people, indonesia is unique in terms of its large sanjaya new evidence on ethnic diversity and social capital in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 37 ethnic diversity resulting in the socio-economic implications of having such diversity. anecdotal evidence shows the country’s experience with ethnic and religious violence, particularly during the transition period of 1998 to 2005, which serves as an indication that diversity matters. previous studies have shown the conflicting effects of ethnic diversity on conflict: ethnic clustering has some positive correlations with local conflict (barron et al., 2009), but different measures seem to have opposite effects on conflict (bazzi et al., 2019). meanwhile, gaduh (2012) provides some evidence that trust (tolerance towards members of other religions) is negatively (positively) associated with religious heterogeneity. more recently, using individual-level data from the indonesian family life survey (ifls), mavridis (2015) shows that ethnic diversity is negatively correlated with trust but is positively correlated with ethnic tolerance. it is rather unfortunate that there is no further elaboration on why the result turns out that way, except for the positive outlook that diversity is a good thing to have in a society. the author used data from the fourth wave (2007) of the ifls that surveyed more than 40 thousand individuals, where trust is elicited through the lost wallet questions (i.e., the likelihood that a lost wallet is returned) and tolerance is simply elicited by asking whether the respondent can trust people of the same ethnicity and whether worship place for people of a different religion is acceptable. one important aspect of the literature is regarding how ethnic diversity is measured, where most of the literature uses fractionalization and polarisation as proxies. ethnic fractionalization refers to the probability of two strangers belonging to different ethnic groups, whereas ethnic polarization shows how divided or polarized the society is. in the simplest formulas used to construct these variables, most authors use population data by ethnic group, assuming that one ethnic group is distinct from another group. consequently, such formulas ignore the possibility of two ethnic groups that are similar, but categorically different. accordingly, researchers have begun to find a better approximation for ethnic diversity that could accommodate such a possibility and found the answer by using linguistic similarity (desmet et al., 2009; esteban & ray, 2011). the implication of using such measures of ethnic diversity is vast, especially in countries like indonesia, where, arguably, the different ethnic groups may be similar if they reside nearby. the literature on social capital can be categorized into two in their construction of the variable that is either using survey or experiment. the latter is often used to establish causality using a small sample (e.g., chuah et al., 2013; chen & sriphon, 2022), and typically utilizes the trust game (berg et al., 1995). however, due to the cost of conducting proper economic experiments and the relatively low generalizability of the results, most studies on social capital rely on the survey method. most cross-country studies use survey methods taken from the world values survey and the gallup world poll, but national surveys are also very common as used in studies on indonesia cited above. this study is unique as it extends mavridis (2015) in three regards. first, instead of using ifls that only covers around half of the total districts, we use data from a national survey to provide a better representation of indonesia. second, this study weighs ethnic diversity with ethnic similarities using an objective measure from ethnologue. this is important as sanjaya new evidence on ethnic diversity and social capital in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 38 there are gradations of ethnic differences: some ethnic groups are ethno-linguistically close to each other (e.g., minang & malay), while others are distant (e.g., javanese & dani in papua). third, this study provides a causal identification using an instrumental variable regression method. research method this study uses the 2009 national socioeconomic survey (susenas) to measure trust and tolerance in indonesia. the 2009 susenas was gathered by the statistics indonesia (badan pusat statistik) and is representative of indonesia as it covers all districts of the country. the social capital module of the survey was not conducted every year and 2009 was the closest year to the 2010 census that provides the data for ethnic diversity. we also use the same survey to obtain individual and household characteristics used as controls in the regressions. the susenas survey asked 291,532 individuals whether they trusted their neighbors, village figures, government, and village apparatus. therefore, the survey reflects respondents' direct, particularized trust with their neighborhood rather than a generalized trust which measures respondents’ belief over a stranger. this study calculates trust as the mean response to these questions. similarly, the tolerance questions were also particularized, i.e., whether they were content with having neighbors of different ethnicity or religion, and their opinion regarding a hypothetical plan of building a worship place of different religions in the neighborhood. this study uses two distributional measures, fractionalization and polarization, as proxies for ethnic diversity. specifically, ethnolinguistic grouping is used as an appropriate proxy for ethnicity in indonesia (mancini, 2008) which helps estimate linguistic similarities. ethnolinguistic groupings were based on the language spoken at home from the 2010 census (minnesota population center, 2015), which was matched with linguistic similarities calculated from ethnologue’s website (simons & fennig, 2017). ipumsinternational sampled (geographically stratified and systematic) the original census data with an expansion factor of 10. as of the writing of this article, ipums-international has only the 2010 population census as the latest available data. for each district, this study calculates the greenberg-gini index (ethnolinguistic fractionalization weighted by inter-group distance dmn) (esteban & ray, 2011) as: 𝐺 = ∑ ∑ 𝑠𝑚𝑠𝑛𝑑𝑚𝑛 𝑁 𝑛=1 𝑁 𝑚=1 . here sm and sn are the share of group m and n, respectively. thus, 0<g<1 and higher values correspond to a more divided society along with different groups. g is weighted by linguistic distance dmn, where 𝑑𝑚𝑛 = 1 − (𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑚𝑜𝑛/13) 𝛿. here, common is the number of common branches between groups m and n, while 13 is the maximum number of sanjaya new evidence on ethnic diversity and social capital in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 39 branches for indonesia. therefore, (𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑚𝑜𝑛/13)𝛿 measures linguistic similarities. we use 𝛿 =0.05 as in desmet (2009) (they found similar results when it was varied between 0.04 and 0.10). also, esteban et al. (2012) found the relatively flat pseudo-likelihoods for 𝛿 between 0.05 and 0.70. when dmn is dropped, g becomes the standard fractionalization index f that measures the probability of two individuals coming from different groups. another important measure of cultural diversity is the polarization index p that is also weighted by dmn (esteban & ray, 2011): 𝑃 = ∑ ∑ 𝑠𝑚 2 𝑠𝑛𝑑𝑚𝑛 𝑁 𝑛=1 𝑁 𝑚=1 . in addition to ethnic diversity, religious fractionalization (rf) is included as well that measures the probability of two random strangers having a different religion. simple ordinary least squares (ols) models are used as the baseline, which is then relaxed by assuming the endogeneity of the ethnic diversity variables. in the ols, this study has separately regressed the three measures of social capital sc = {localized trust, tolerance towards ethnic outgroup members and tolerance towards religious outgroup members} using this specification (for individual i living in district j): 𝑠𝑐𝑖𝑗 = 𝛽𝑑𝑖𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑗 + 𝛾𝑋1𝑗 + 𝜃𝑋2𝑖𝑗 + 𝜖 where diversity—the main variable of interest—is the four measures of ethnic and religious diversity (we run the regressions separately for these variables). x1j is a set of district-level controls that includes log population, log per capita district gdp, urban dummy (=1 if more than half of the district population lives in urban areas and 0 otherwise), and income inequality (percentage difference between the mean and the poorest 20% per capita household expenditure). whereas x2ij is a set of individual/household characteristics that include gender, age, square of age, marital status, years of education, and household expenditure. ols is preferred as it is still an unbiased and consistent estimator of the true population parameter even though the dependent variable is ordinal. the study also does not concern with interpreting the estimated coefficients on the dependent variable, besides on looking at the signs and significance, which alleviate the potential issue of using ols to obtain the estimates. as usual we assumed the error term 𝜖 is uncorrelated with sc and the explanatory variables. otherwise, the estimated parameters from the ols would be biased and alternative identification is needed. here, instrumental variable regression method is used where sc is instrumented by geographical variations: latitude/distance from equator, mean elevation, and variance elevation (ahlerup & olsson, 2012; michalopoulos, 2012). due to the unavailability of the main data from these papers at subnational level, such as duration of human settlement and variations in land quality, we can only use these sanjaya new evidence on ethnic diversity and social capital in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 40 geographical variables as our instruments. standard errors are clustered at the district level and the parameters were estimated using the generalized method of moments (gmm) since the error terms were found to be heteroscedastic following the pagan and hall (1983) test. result and discussion table 1 summarizes the variables used in this study. although this study has more than 290 thousand observations for some variables, the actual number of observations that are used in the regression will be slightly lower. on average, people were trusting and tolerating those from different ethnic groups with means of 3.77 and 3.20 respectively. the respondents, however, were less tolerant towards people of different religions. only 32% of the respondents lived in urban areas with the education until 7th grade on average. very few of the respondents were single (6%) and the average age was quite mature at 43 years. the reason for the latter is due to the respondents who were household heads. table 1 summary statistics variable obs mean std. dev. min max trust 291,240 3.769514 0.415244 1 5 tolerance towards other religions 289,276 2.639638 0.732391 1 5 tolerance towards other ethnic groups 286,222 3.203356 0.626467 1 5 fractionalization (f) 289,358 0.369451 0.262712 0.0047 0.8800 polarization (p) 289,358 0.022995 0.036173 0.0002 0.2433 greenberg-gini index (g) 289,358 0.068338 0.102863 0.0005 0.6561 religious fractionalization (rf) 289,358 0.161451 0.176444 0.0000 0.6995 log population 291,532 12.82605 1.020576 9.63 15.38 log grdp per capita 291,532 1.840117 0.719965 -1.02 5.07 urban district 291,532 0.320963 0.466847 0 1 years of education 291,532 7.355759 4.260274 0 18 single 291,532 0.060268 0.237983 0 1 age 291,515 42.97709 14.41071 6 98 square of age 291,515 2054.698 1372.846 36 9604 female 291,532 0.530285 0.499083 0 1 household expenditure 291,532 1694844 1429445 22595 78300000 income inequality 291,532 1.094404 0.284242 0.19 2.69 figure 1 plots the kernel density of the measures of ethnic diversity, and it is apparent that the introduction of ethnic similarities changes the distribution of the variables. for example, the shape of f is clearly different from g (i.e., f that accounts for ethnic similarities). also, except for f, the densities are skewed to the right, indicating that the degree of diversity is not as large as in the case where ethnic similarities are omitted. sanjaya new evidence on ethnic diversity and social capital in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 41 figure 1 densities of ethnic and religious diversity variables meanwhile, a visual inspection of the scatterplots between ethnic diversity and trust (figure 2), ethnic tolerance (figure 3), and religious tolerance (figure 4) suggests different patterns that emerged. trust tends to be negatively correlated with ethnic diversity, but the opposite seems to happen for both ethnic and religious tolerances. some outlier districts (dogiyai in figure 2 and puncak in figure 4; both are in papua) are removed, but even if they are included the results remain the same. figure 2 shows the negative correlation between trust and all measures of ethnic diversity (proxied by f, p and g) and religious diversity (religious fractionalization, rf). when ethnolinguistic similarities are included in the construction of p and g, the distributions are more clustered at smaller values (less than 0.05 and 0.2 for p and g respectively), which confirms the results from figure 1. it is noted that the negative correlation between trust and ethnic fractionalization f is not as strong as the others. figure 3 shows the positive correlation between religious tolerance and ethnic and religious diversity. this finding is also observed in figure 4 which relates to ethnic tolerance and diversity, although visually the slopes are slightly less steep than the ones in figure 3. this difference suggests that the lower tolerance towards those of different religions, as opposed to those of different ethnicity, found in the descriptive statistics (table 1) seems to extend to how it is related with ethnic and religious diversity. findings from the visual inspection will be confirmed using the econometric analysis in the next part of this section. sanjaya new evidence on ethnic diversity and social capital in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 42 figure 2 trust and ethnic diversity figure 3 religious tolerance and ethnic diversity sanjaya new evidence on ethnic diversity and social capital in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 43 figure 4 ethnic tolerance and ethnic diversity in the following discussions, this study has observed different results on the effect of ethnic diversity on social capital, where the effect is positive (negative) on the levels of tolerance (trust). this finding is statistically significant and consistent when various measures of ethnic diversity are used. such systematic differences suggest a different underlying driver of trust and tolerance, at least on our data. in table 2, it was found that all measures of social capital are negatively correlated with trust, even after controlling for demographic and district characteristics. as shown in table 2, the coefficients from f, p and g are all negative and strongly significant. many of the demographic and district characteristics are also significantly correlated with the dependent variable. for example, households who lived in urban districts and had higher income (proxied by expenditure) tended to be less trusting. interestingly, having a better (longer) education does not make people more trusting. the above finding generally holds when the instrumental variable regression method is used. this study excludes rf as the instruments used in table 3 are specific for ethnic variables. first-stage regression results have been reported and have found that only latitudes that are consistently significant in predicting variations of ethnic diversity (we will not report this again in subsequent tables as the regressions are identical to the ones in table 3 except for the dependent variable). sanjaya new evidence on ethnic diversity and social capital in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 44 table 2 ols results (dependent variable: trust) (1) (2) (3) (4) fractionalization -0.0516*** (0.0183) polarization -0.508*** (0.194) greenberg-gini index -0.217*** (0.0582) religious fractionalization -0.135*** (0.0268) log population 0.0154*** 0.0150*** 0.0136*** 0.0127*** (0.00494) (0.00477) (0.00486) (0.00470) log grdp per capita -0.0212*** -0.0249*** -0.0255*** -0.0194*** (0.00692) (0.00668) (0.00668) (0.00656) urban district -0.0644*** -0.0555*** -0.0576*** -0.0595*** (0.0122) (0.0116) (0.0117) (0.0119) years of education -0.00271*** -0.00252*** -0.00267*** -0.00247*** (0.000574) (0.000583) (0.000561) (0.000577) single 0.0122** 0.0126** 0.0119** 0.0133** (0.00558) (0.00558) (0.00557) (0.00555) age 0.00389*** 0.00402*** 0.00397*** 0.00398*** (0.000416) (0.000421) (0.000422) (0.000416) square of age -2.32e-05*** -2.37e-05*** -2.37e-05*** -2.34e-05*** (4.17e-06) (4.17e-06) (4.18e-06) (4.18e-06) female 0.00339 0.00463 0.00356 0.00292 (0.00360) (0.00368) (0.00357) (0.00358) household expenditure -1.81e-08*** -1.80e-08*** -1.78e-08*** -1.81e-08*** (1.58e-09) (1.68e-09) (1.66e-09) (1.62e-09) income inequality -0.0448** -0.0455** -0.0394** -0.0313* (0.0187) (0.0180) (0.0182) (0.0175) constant 3.629*** 3.624*** 3.643*** 3.640*** (0.0719) (0.0686) (0.0693) (0.0678) observations 289,058 289,058 289,058 289,058 adjusted r-squared 0.032 0.033 0.033 0.033 notes: robust cluster (at district level) standard errors in parentheses. ∗ p < 0.10, ∗∗ p < 0.05, ∗∗∗ p < 0.01. table 3 iv-gmm results (dependent variable: trust) (1) (2) (3) second stage fractionalization -0.258*** (0.0461) polarization -3.925*** (1.005) greenberg-gini index -1.129*** (0.255) constant 3.873*** 3.808*** 3.804*** (0.0277) (0.0294) (0.0284) observations 289,058 289,058 289,058 adjusted r-squared 0.017 -0.053 -0.016 first stage latitude -0.344*** -0.022*** -0.079*** (0.038) (0.005) (0.014) mean elevation -0.088* -0.002 -0.013 (0.045) (0.006) (0.018) variance elevation 0.066 -0.002 0.008 (0.083) (0.011) (0.032) constant 0.470 0.016 0.053 (0.055) (0.006) (0.020) notes: robust cluster (at district level) standard errors in parentheses. ∗ p < 0.10, ∗∗ p < 0.05, ∗∗∗ p < 0.01. all controls are included in all regressions (coefficients are not shown to save space). sanjaya new evidence on ethnic diversity and social capital in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 45 table 4 ols results (dependent variable: tolerance) towards other religions (1-4) towards other ethnic groups (5-8) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) fractionalizatio n 0.283*** 0.201*** (0.0702) (0.0249) polarization 1.677*** 0.984*** (0.309) (0.174) greenberg-gini index 0.690*** 0.384*** (0.128) (0.0652) religious fractionalizatio n 1.240*** 0.253*** (0.0677) (0.0375) log population -0.0382** 0.0461** 0.0424** 0.00186 0.0342*** 0.0417*** 0.0401*** 0.0378*** (0.0181) (0.0180) (0.0183) (0.0148) (0.00655) (0.00615) (0.00623) (0.00615) log grdp per capita 0.0172 0.0341 0.0358 -0.00850 -0.00270 0.00875 0.00958 -0.00168 (0.0227) (0.0221) (0.0220) (0.0180) (0.00904) (0.00884) (0.00869) (0.00853) urban district 0.0144 -0.0292 -0.0222 -0.00620 -0.0234* 0.0535*** 0.0494*** 0.0461*** (0.0386) (0.0365) (0.0364) (0.0308) (0.0141) (0.0144) (0.0143) (0.0138) years of education 0.0142*** 0.0133** * 0.0137** * 0.0126** * 0.00902** * 0.00838** * 0.00866** * 0.00832** * (0.00135) (0.00137) (0.00135) (0.00114) (0.000852) (0.000853) (0.000850) (0.000833) single 0.0526*** 0.0485** * 0.0507** * 0.0470** * 0.0123* 0.00901 0.0102 0.00776 (0.0120) (0.0121) (0.0121) (0.0105) (0.00707) (0.00710) (0.00713) (0.00693) age 0.00217** * 0.00149* 0.00165* * 0.00175* * 0.000567 9.50e-05 0.000186 0.000183 (0.000798) (0.00079 4) (0.00079 3) (0.00075 7) (0.000566) (0.000567) (0.000568) (0.000570) square of age -6.86e-06 -4.79e-06 -4.96e-06 -5.26e-06 -1.04e-06 2.34e-07 1.09e-07 -4.62e-07 (8.18e-06) (8.20e06) (8.17e06) (7.84e06) (5.60e-06) (5.63e-06) (5.63e-06) (5.65e-06) female 0.0460*** 0.0535** * 0.0502** * 0.0359** * -0.00826* 0.0137*** -0.0119** -0.0104** (0.00824) (0.00888) (0.00865) (0.00740) (0.00480) (0.00492) (0.00489) (0.00489) household expenditure 2.32e-09 3.17e-09 2.44e-09 1.94e-10 9.57e09*** 1.04e08*** 1.00e08*** 1.04e08*** (3.69e-09) (3.55e09) (3.56e09) (3.09e09) (2.03e-09) (2.12e-09) (2.09e-09) (2.11e-09) income inequality 0.309*** 0.330*** 0.311*** 0.154*** 0.116*** 0.134*** 0.125*** 0.108*** (0.0646) (0.0642) (0.0646) (0.0524) (0.0254) (0.0248) (0.0250) (0.0243) constant 2.482*** 2.646*** 2.593*** 2.121*** 3.352*** 3.493*** 3.470*** 3.466*** (0.248) (0.241) (0.244) (0.194) (0.0979) (0.0913) (0.0921) (0.0903) observations 287,099 287,099 287,099 287,099 284,074 284,074 284,074 284,074 adjusted rsquared 0.049 0.047 0.049 0.113 0.024 0.021 0.022 0.022 notes: robust cluster (at district level) standard errors in parentheses. ∗ p < 0.10, ∗∗ p < 0.05, ∗∗∗ p < 0.01. table 4 summarizes the results from the ols regressions on tolerance, both tolerance towards other religions and tolerance towards other ethnic groups. the study confirms the visual inspection as the coefficients are all positive and significant. like the finding from table 2, the estimated parameters for the urban variable are negative, but only for tolerance towards other ethnic groups members (table 4 models 5 to 8). however, unlike in table 2, education seems to have a positive influence on tolerance as the coefficients are all positive and highly significant. having higher expenditure is also positively sanjaya new evidence on ethnic diversity and social capital in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 46 associated with tolerance towards people of other ethnicities. the correlation between the inequality variable and tolerance in table 3 is also different from table 2, where the former is positive (more unequal, more tolerance) whereas the latter is negative (more unequal, less trust). again, the model has been re-estimated using the instrumental variable regression method in table 5 and the results were held (although the significance level drops to just 10% for tolerance towards other religions). table 5 iv-gmm results (dependent variable: tolerance) towards other religions (1-3) towards other ethnic groups (4-6) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) second stage fractionalization 0.242* 0.354*** (0.145) (0.0579) polarization 4.236* 5.752*** (2.341) (1.266) greenberg-gini index 1.094* 1.612*** (0.645) (0.321) constant 2.020*** 2.074*** 2.075*** 2.859*** 2.942*** 2.942*** (0.0826) (0.0742) (0.0732) (0.0372) (0.0407) (0.0390) observations 287,099 287,099 287,099 284,074 284,074 284,074 adjusted r-squared 0.046 0.030 0.043 0.019 -0.048 -0.015 notes: robust cluster (at district level) standard errors in parentheses. ∗ p < 0.10, ∗∗ p < 0.05, ∗∗∗ p < 0.01. all controls are included in all regressions (coefficients are hidden to save space). this study found that diversity is negatively correlated with trust but positively correlated with tolerance which is very similar to mavridis (2015), in which the author claimed that the result was not found in preceding literature. in the paper, mavridis also did not explain why such a result occurred. according to “conflict theory”, in a diverse environment, the levels of (generalized) interpersonal trust are low but at the same time, the levels of (particularized) intrapersonal trust are high. this trade-off was moderated by interethnic contact where a person with a diverse friendship tended to be more tolerant than those who did not (rudolph & popp, 2010). in addition, they also suggest that particularized trust (as used in this study) is a more accurate representation of trust as a function of social capital than generalized trust, in which the latter tends to serve as an indication for a person's level of tolerance. this theory, therefore, suggests that tolerance is expected to be lower in a diverse environment, whereas trust is expected to flourish. findings in this study, however, show the opposite: tolerance is higher in a diverse environment, while trust is lower. thus, it is less likely that conflict theory will be relevant in the case of indonesia. the findings of this study show some support to the constrict theory (putnam, 2007) where diversity tends to decrease both within-group trust. however, this theory could not explain why tolerance towards ethnic and religious outgroup members is high in a diverse environment. hence it seems that the finding regarding the association between tolerance and diversity lends some support to the contact theory (allport, 1954), where higher intergroup contact is expected to foster tolerance towards outgroup members. in sanjaya new evidence on ethnic diversity and social capital in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 47 short, data provides only one support to the constrict theory (regarding trust), but another supports to the contact theory (regarding tolerance). while this study has no direct policy implication, several important suggestions can be pointed out to improve existing policies further. the first suggestion is the need to support and uphold existing policies that promote inclusivity, as the study shows that tolerance and ethnic and religious diversity go hand in hand. this suggestion is increasingly important as there is still evidence of intolerance against those of different religions or ethnic groups (see e.g., bbc, 2019). also, local violence in post-conflict (after 2005) indonesia tends to be small in size but is frequent (barron, 2019). the second suggestion is the need to promote activities that can increase societal trust in the absence of perceptions of external threats. another finding of this study shows that diversity tends to decrease with trust but increases with tolerance showing the trade-off between the two measures of social capital. community and policy leaders should understand this trade-off and must weigh the benefits of policies or activities that may attract migrations. conclusion the estimation results support mavridis (2015) where trust and tolerance are negatively and positively associated with ethnic and religious diversity respectively, even after controlling for ethnolinguistic similarities and demographic controls. the novelty of this research is in the inclusion of ethnolinguistic similarities in the construction of the measures of ethnic diversity. by including this variable, this study managed to capture better the degree of diversity that takes place in the region. this is important as many ethnic groups in indonesia are linguistically very similar to each other, especially those in kalimantan and sumatera, which implies that measures of diversity such as fractionalization and polarisation that exclude such features may overestimate the degree of diversity in the region. in addition to the findings from the multiple linear regression method, consistent results were arrived at after removing the possibility of endogenous ethnic diversity variables by conducting instrumental variable regressions. the implication of this finding is critical for indonesia and other heterogeneous countries, with communities at the forefront in not only acknowledging the importance of ethnic diversity but also in promoting inclusive activities. policy-wise, local leaders need to be unafraid of allowing migration, while at the same time expanding government programs that encourage positive inter-community relationships. in communities with experience of ethnic or religious hostility, local governments must actively involve community leaders in the discussion regarding programs that aim to assimilate people of different ethnic or religious backgrounds. research-wise, this study shows how ethnic diversity is associated with social capital and some may argue (e.g., algan & cahuc, 2014) that such association can be extended to other socioeconomic aspects such as economic growth. the current research on how ethnic diversity is associated with economic performance in indonesia is very limited. for example, a study by ananta et al. (2021) shows a mixed result on how the two variables are associated, whereas a recent study did not even consider the sanjaya new evidence on ethnic diversity and social capital in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 48 importance of ethnic diversity as a possible determinant of regional economic growth (yuliadi, 2020). this research is limited in several ways. first, the 2009-2010 data is relatively old, and the latest (2020) population census data is not yet available in the public domain for free (i.e., through the ipums-international database). with more than a decade-old data, this study admits that some of our measures might have changed. for example, the large number of social media users today might affect social interaction in a way that affects their perception of others, which may lead to either higher or lower social capital. however, it could also be argued that the distribution of ethnic diversity might be persistent as there were no observed mass migrations within the last decade. second, other data sources can be used to supplement this research such as the 2014 national survey on social resilience that also includes questions on social capital. while the 2009 data is more appropriate as it is closer to the 2010 census, some insights might be gained if the analysis can be extended to 2014. there are a couple of directions for future research. first, using 2014 (or more recent) data on social capital might uncover the mechanism or information that can explain the result of this study as the 2014 survey provides richer information on social resilience in general. second, once the 2020 population census data is available, new findings might come to the surface which will be more relevant for today’s situation. references ahlerup, p., & olsson, o. 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(2020). determinants of regional economic growth in indonesia. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 21(1), 125-136. https://doi.org/10.18196/jesp.21.1.5035 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2014.10.028 https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.102.4.1508 https://doi.org/10.18128/d020.v6.4 https://doi.org/10.47654/v25y2021i3p26-45 https://doi.org/10.1080/07311768308800039 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9477.2007.00176.x https://doi.org/10.1017/s002238160999048x https://doi.org/10.1108/ijse-12-2018-0661 https://doi.org/10.18196/jesp.21.1.5035 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 23 no 2, october 2022 article type: research paper do poverty and economic growth matter for income inequality reduction in yogyakarta province? athari maurilla1, suriani2*, and muhammad nasir2 abstract: it has been observed that income inequality is an economic element that may impede a nation's economic development. in general, indonesia's gini ratio has remained low for nearly a decade, although one region, yogyakarta province, unexpectedly exceeds the national average. the provincial government of yogyakarta must focus more on reducing income inequality. therefore, this study employs the poverty-growth-inequality triangle model approach to investigate the complexity of income inequality in yogyakarta province. the data is collected from five cities in yogyakarta province from 2010 to 2021. for the quantitative study, a simultaneous equation model analysis with three iterations of least squares is performed. the results indicate that there is no causal relationship between income inequality and economic growth or poverty. according to the model of income inequality, education and the district minimum wage have a significant impact on income inequality. therefore, local governments are advocated to evaluate policies aimed at reducing income inequality through education system reform, equity in district minimum wage and economic growth, and efficiency in the utilization of income inequality-related funds. keywords: income inequality; economic growth; poverty jel classification: i31; o11; o15; o40 introduction since the 1950s, development economics has promoted economic expansion at the expense of inequality. it is based on the notion that rising inequality in emerging nations is essentially inescapable and does not affect the economy as long as poverty is diminishing annually. policy efforts seem likely that measures to minimize inequality will impair economic growth and poverty alleviation (ravallion, 2014). then, in the 2000s, a new challenge cast doubt on this long-held propoverty perspective. it was discovered that achieving equity was critical for achieving other important goals like human growth and poverty alleviation. high inequality will be seen as a threat to the nation's progress. one of the sustainable development goals (sdgs) agenda is reducing inequality. unchecked income inequality can impede economic growth in several ways (wan et al. 2006). between 1980 and 2000, china had strong economic growth and a decrease in poverty, but the prevalence of income affiliation: 1 master program of economics, faculty of economics and business, universitas syiah kuala, aceh, indonesia 2 department of economics, faculty of economics and business, universitas syiah kuala, aceh, indonesia *correspondence: suriani@unsyiah.ac.id this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v23i2.15859 citation: maurilla, a., suriani, s., & nasir, m. (2022). do poverty and economic growth matter for income inequality reduction in yogyakarta province? jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 23(2), 308-322. article history received: 13 aug 2022 revised: 14 nov 2022 accepted: 29 nov 2022 https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?user=wafph8gaaaaj&hl=en https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?user=ignwjsgaaaaj&hl=en http://feb.unsyiah.ac.id/s2-magister-ilmu-ekonomi/ http://feb.unsyiah.ac.id/s2-magister-ilmu-ekonomi/ http://feb.unsyiah.ac.id/s2-magister-ilmu-ekonomi/ http://feb.unsyiah.ac.id/s2-magister-ilmu-ekonomi/ http://feb.unsyiah.ac.id/s2-magister-ilmu-ekonomi/ https://ekp.feb.unsyiah.ac.id/ https://ekp.feb.unsyiah.ac.id/ https://ekp.feb.unsyiah.ac.id/ https://ekp.feb.unsyiah.ac.id/ mailto:suriani@unsyiah.ac.id http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/15859 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v23i2.15859&domain=pdf maurilla, suriani, & nasir do poverty and economic growth matter for income inequality reduction … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 309 inequality increased the risk of continuing to live in poverty (wan, 2008). additionally, income inequality adversely affects the provision of public goods and services because elites have more authority (bourguignon & dessus, 2009). as a result, income inequality can have an impact from both an economic and social perspective. in indonesia, one of the measures employed to describe inequality is the gini ratio. as illustrated in figure 1, within the decade, the movement of the income gini ratio in indonesia showed a negative trend, as it started from a moderate level of gini ratio (> 0.4) to a low level of gini ratio (< 0.4). figure 1 the evolution of the gini ratio in yogyakarta province and indonesia for the period 2010-2021 source: bps statistics indonesia although indonesia is generally having a low level of gini ratio, it is found that several regions have a moderate gini ratio, including yogyakarta province. yogyakarta province is expected to have the highest gini ratio in 2021 out of all 33 provinces. as shown in figure 1, yogyakarta province's average gini ratio between 2010 and 2021 was higher than 0.4 (moderate category), continually exceeding the nation's level of inequality. in 2021, the gini ratio was 0.441. based on the districts in yogyakarta province, which are kulon progo, gunung kidul, bantul, sleman, and yogyakarta, the gini ratio tend to be higher in urban area such as sleman dan yogyakarta. another measure that can describe income inequality is the distribution of expenditure among the population. based on that, 20% of the wealthiest population of yogyakarta is spending about 50% of all expenditures. however, the poorest 40% of the population only contribute up to 15% of total expenditures. according to the world bank, moderate inequality exists when the distribution of expenditure from 40% of the poorest ranges from 12% to 17% of all expenditures. hence, the distribution of expenditure data also shows moderate income inequality in yogyakarta province. 0,378 0,41 0,41 0,413 0,406 0,408 0,397 0,393 0,389 0,38 0,381 0,384 0,439 0,419 0,433 0,42 0,432 0,441 0,423 0,432 0,441 0,423 0,434 0,441 0,34 0,35 0,36 0,37 0,38 0,39 0,4 0,41 0,42 0,43 0,44 0,45 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 2 0 1 9 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 1 indonesia yogyakarta province maurilla, suriani, & nasir do poverty and economic growth matter for income inequality reduction … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 310 income inequality research is constantly expanding. one of them is the analysis of income inequality through a macroeconomic approach. this approach relies on cross-country data on inequality, poverty, and growth rates. when economic growth is strong, the decomposition frequently favors growth. thus, changes in income inequality can affect whether poverty is increasing or decreasing while economic development is slowing (ferreira, 2010). according to breunig and majeed (2020), when a region has a high rate of poverty, income inequality has a negative effect on economic growth. the study found that when poverty rates approach 60%, inequality has a detrimental influence on economic growth, and it gets worse as poverty levels rise. in other words, the rate of economic growth acceleration, the decline in inequality, and the eradication of poverty are all directly tied to the level of development pursued by a nation (todaro, 2012). another study by wan (2008) discovered that china's rapid economic growth was a miracle and had a strong positive impact on the reduction of poverty. however, this growth, which traded off efficiency (growth) for inequality, resulted in a sharp rise in inequality across the board and increased urban poor. the analysis of income inequality, economic growth, and poverty must be methodical, exhaustive, and cogent to fully grasp the development process in developing nations (wan et al., 2020). previous studies have found that growth can have a variety of effects on income inequality. the nexus of inequality growth has produced conflicting results. on the other side, income inequality affects both growth and the spread of poverty. therefore, further research is required to understand better the connection between inequality, growth, and poverty. one approach that can be utilized to comprehend this complex relationship is the poverty-growth-inequality (pgi) triangle model, which was conducted by buourguignon (2004). from the study, bourguignon (2004) found that changes in poverty are caused by changes in people's average income and income inequality. wan (2008) emphasizes the value of investigating the pgi model. essentially, the pgi model is hinged on inequality issues. the future poverty reduction may be influenced by trends in inequality. the pgi model explains how inequality and poverty are distributed globally and offers the government fresh perspectives on how to solve these issues while promoting economic progress. in addition, the pgi model can also be used to group nations according to how well-equipped they are to handle economic difficulties. it included economic growth and inequality and how they interact with poverty (michálek & výbošťok, 2019). the pgi model has been used by dartanto (2013) to analyze the relationship between poverty, growth, and inequality in indonesia. inclusive growth had less impact on poverty and inequality than in previous periods, as indonesia's economic sector has turned toward economic services and capital-intensive sectors. these sectors need skilled personnel, which makes them unaffordable for the poor and leads to inequality. however, no one has investigated income inequality in yogyakarta province using the pgi approach. the macro goals in yogyakarta province's development planning document (rpjmd) for the 2017–2022 period include reducing poverty, promoting economic growth, and reducing inequality. the government is targeting economic growth to reach 5.34%; the poverty rate at 7%; and income inequality with a gini ratio of 0.36 in 2021. the yogyakarta maurilla, suriani, & nasir do poverty and economic growth matter for income inequality reduction … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 311 province's central bureau of statistics reports that in 2021, the economy grew by 5.53%, above the desired rate. for poverty, its rate was 12.8% in 2021. the poverty rate in this country exceeded the national average (which was 10.14% throughout indonesia) and fell short of the rpjmd target). moreover, some districts have a more than 20% poverty rate during the 2010-2016 period, such as kulon progo dan gunung kidul. next, on the income inequality side, it is demonstrated that the gini ratio of yogyakarta province did not yet reach the rpjmd's target in 2021. figure 2 the evolution of poverty, growth, and inequality in yogyakarta province period 2010 – 2021 based on the previous explanation, referring to bourguignon (2004), this study assumes that income inequality changes also contribute to economic growth and poverty. as shown in figure 3, there is a complex link in yogyakarta province between poverty, growth, and inequality. thus, the purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between income inequality, economic growth, and poverty in yogyakarta province using the pgi triangle model. figure 3 the poverty, growth, and inequality (pgi triangle) prior studies related to income inequality in yogyakarta province analyzed poverty on income inequality (dewi & rachmawatie, 2020) or growth on income inequality separately (suryani & woyanti). these earlier investigations examined the relationships between the variables in isolation, which revealed a one-way link. however, this study views the interaction between them as an ongoing, interconnected relationship (two-way direction). in addition, this study about income inequality in yogyakarta using the pgi (poverty-growth-inequality) triangle model is still limited. 0,405 0,41 0,415 0,42 0,425 0,43 0,435 0,44 0,445 -5 0 5 10 15 20 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 poverty growth gini maurilla, suriani, & nasir do poverty and economic growth matter for income inequality reduction … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 312 therefore, the novelties of this study are the use of the pgi model in the analysis and see the simultaneous relationship between variables. this study provides a new perspective on the relationship between income inequality, economic growth, and poverty in yogyakarta province. this study's writing is organized as follows. the study approach connected to the pertinent analytical methods and the model used is discussed in section 2. section 3 will give the empirical findings and a discussion of the selected model, and section 4 will conclude with recommendations for government action. research method this study relies on secondary data from the bps statistics indonesia. panel data were used in 5 districts of yogyakarta province from 2010 to 2021. the districts in this study are kulon progo, gunung kidul, bantul, sleman, and yogyakarta. the dependent variables of this study are income inequality, economic growth, and poverty. while, the predetermined variables are unemployment, investment, education, and wage. the annual data collected include the regional gross domestic product (economic growth) the number of poor people (poverty), the gini ratio (income inequality), the open unemployment rate (unemployment), gross fixed capital (investment), the average length of schooling (education), and district minimum wage (wage). this study employs contemporaneous interdependence between the dependent variables as a method of quantitative analysis. therefore, a system of simultaneous equations model (sem) was developed to examine the connection between income inequality, economic growth, and poverty. by considering the data from other equations, this model might allow a causal interaction between variables (housseima & ben rejeb, 2012) which would make the relationship highly complex. additionally, the two-way link between the variable and this model can be examined using this model (suriani & seftarita, 2022). due to its consistency and efficiency compared to estimates based on a single equation or 2sls (two-stage-least-square) (zellner & theil, 1962), this study uses the three-stageleast-square (3sls) estimation method. this method allows for unobserved correlation disturbances across multiple equations (bakhsh et al., 2017). based on housseima and ben rejeb’s (2012) work, the simultaneous equations model's system is adjusted in this study and can be observed as follows: lnrgdpit =∝1+ β11lnpov it + β12lnginiit + β13invit + ε1it (1) lnpovit =∝2+ β21lnginiit + β22lnrgdpit + β23lneduit + β24unit + ε2it (2) lnginiit = ∝3+ β31lnpovit + β32lnrgdpit + β33lnwage it + β34𝐿𝑛edu it + ε3it (3) where ∝i are constant coefficients, βij subscription parameter coefficients, εi are residuals, rgdp is the regional gross domestic product, pov is the number of the poor population, gini is the income gini ratio, inv is gross fixed capital, edu is the average length of schooling, un is the open unemployment rate, and wage is the district minimum wages in each district. maurilla, suriani, & nasir do poverty and economic growth matter for income inequality reduction … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 313 this system of equations includes three structural models. the first model expresses the economic growth equation. the second model represents the poverty equation and the third model is the income inequality equation. the endogenous/dependent variables on the system equation are economic growth (rgdp), poverty (pov), and income inequality (gini). the independent variables (in sem, it is called predetermined variables) are investment (inv), unemployment (un), education (edu), and district minimum wage (wage). the rgdp, pov, gini, edu, and wage are expressed in the natural logarithmic form indicating their growth so that in its interpretation, they are expressed in percentage. inv is expressed in billion rupiahs and un is expressed in percentages. economic growth is the total economic output from each district (regional gross domestic product) in the form of a natural logarithm as a proxy for economic growth on an annual basis based on fixed prices in 2010. this study uses data for the month of march for the population of the poor in each district, which is based on semi-annual statistics. income inequality is the income gini ratio in each district, which is semi-annual data, and the gini ratio used is for the march period. investment is gross fixed capital in each district, collected annually on fixed prices in 2010. unemployment is the ratio of unemployed individuals to the labor force, often known as the open unemployment rate. this analysis utilizes the semi-annual statistics for the open unemployment rate for the month of august. education is annual data on the average length of schooling in each district. wage is annual data on the district minimum wage in each district. the steps for this research method are as follows. first, the simultaneity problem or endogeneity of the variables (economic growth, poverty, and income inequality) will be tested using the hausman simultaneity test (gujarati, 2009). second, identify the structural equation to ensure the 3sls estimation method can be used. 'k' is the sum of predetermined variables in the system, and k is the sum of predetermined variables in each structural equation. 'm' is the sum of endogenous variables in each structural equation. the structural equation is over-identified if k-k > m-1, exactly-identified if k-k = m-1, and under-identified k-k < m-1 (gujarati, 2009). for estimation to be carried out, the equation identification results must be exactly identified or overidentified (k-k ˃ m-1). third, estimate the system equation model using stata using the 3sls approach. fourth, the estimation of the model must typically be checked for the classical assumptions using the normality test, heteroscedasticity test, multicollinearity test, and autocorrelation test (karina & syahnur 2021). the purpose of these assumptions is to guarantee that the estimators are the best linear unbiased estimators (blue). the assumption of autocorrelation is unnecessary because the data used is panel data. the f-test and t-test are employed to examine the impact of the independent variable on the dependent variable. result and discussion before the model was estimated, the hausman simultaneity test was conducted. a rejection of the null hypothesis indicates that the ordinary least square (ols) estimator maurilla, suriani, & nasir do poverty and economic growth matter for income inequality reduction … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 314 will not be consistent. hence, instrumental variable techniques are required, such as the simultaneous equation model (omri, 2013). table 1 provides information about the hausman simultaneity test in the system equations. res_1 significant at α=1% shows that there is a simultaneity problem between lnrgdp and lnpov. res_2 is also significant at α=5%, showing that there is a simultaneity problem between lnrgdp and lngini. res_3 significant at 10% shows that there is a simultaneity problem between lnpov and lngini. these results support that a simultaneous equation model is more appropriate to use. table 1 result of the hausman simultaneity test variables residual statistics probability lnrgdp-lnpov res_1 2.94 0.005 lnrgdp-lngini res_2 -2.12 0.039 lnpov-lngini res_3 -1.93 0.059 the simultaneous model in this study has three structural equations with three endogenous variables (m=3) and four predetermined variables (k=4) in the system equation. the findings of the identification models are reported in table 2. for the lnrgdp model, since k-k > m-1, the equation is overidentified. for the lnpov model and lngini, since in their k-k = m-1, each equation is exactly identified. these identification results show that the 3sls estimation method can be carried out. table 2 results of structural model identification structural equation k k m k-k m-1 identification lnrgdp 4 1 3 4-1 =3 3-1 =2 overidentified lnpo 4 2 3 4-2 = 2 3-1 =2 exactly identified lngini 4 2 3 4-2 = 2 3-1 =2 exactly identified the estimation result can be shown in table 3. to ensure the estimation result is blue, it is necessary to do some classical assumption tests (normality, heteroscedasticity, and multicollinearity). for the normality assumption, the overall system normality test using the anderson-darling z test shows that the statistic value is 0.0092 with a probability is 0.9885. it can conclude that the overall system fulfills the normality assumption as its pvalue is not significant at α=5%. for the heteroscedasticity assumption, on overall system heteroscedasticity test using the breusch-pagan lm test shows that the statistic value is 5.4425 with a probability of 0.1421. it can conclude that there is no heteroscedasticity problem as its p-value is not significant at α=5%. multicollinearity based on the crosscorrelation among variables shows that the majority correlation value is low, except for the correlation between the lnrgdp and inv variables, which is fairly high (0.8690). however, this study uses simultaneous equation models, which be used to develop accurate final multiple regression models when collinearities among explanatory variables are thought to be present, then this is not a problem (graham, 2003). based on the ftest, each equation, lnrgdp, lnpov, and lngini is significant as its p-value is lower than 0.01 (significant at α=1%). growing income inequality, poverty, and investment all have a joint big impact on economic growth. meanwhile, economic maurilla, suriani, & nasir do poverty and economic growth matter for income inequality reduction … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 315 growth, the growth of income inequality and education, and unemployment have joint effects on poverty growth. moreover, economic growth, the growth of poverty, education, and district minimum wage have joint significant effects on income inequality growth. on the economic growth (lnrgdp) model, poverty has a negative effect on economic growth. it means that an increase in poverty growth by 1% will reduce economic growth by 0.268%. this result is in line with the study by perry et al. (2006), that poor regions cannot contribute to national growth. poverty harms economic growth caused by limited access to credit and financial funding, and health problems that can interfere with productivity and low levels of education, so their human capital stock is also of low quality. next, the investment variable also has a positive and significant on economic growth. an increase of 1 billion rupiahs in investment will increase economic growth by 1.62x10-7%. this result is in line with the study by almfraji and almsafir, the investment may significantly give a positive effect on economic growth influenced by several factors such as well-developed financial markets, adequate levels of human capital, open trade regimes, and the complementarity between domestic and foreign investment. meanwhile, the result differs from the study by yuliadi (2020), who found that the investment (foreign investment, domestic investment, and length of road) had no significant effect on economic growth. moreover, in the economic growth model, the influence of income inequality on economic growth is not significant. this is consistent with the findings of benos and karagiannis (2018), which discovered that changes in income inequality do not affect economic growth. similarly, under the model of income inequality, economic growth does not affect income inequality. this finding is congruent with the findings of niyimbanira (2017), who revealed that economic growth reduced poverty but had no effect on income inequality. these outcomes may have occurred due to the inequality in economic growth among the districts in yogyakarta province. in 2018-2019, for instance, the construction of the yogyakarta international airport (yia) in kulon progo drove economic growth to reach more than 10%. kulon progo's economic growth reached its peak in 2019, which was about 13.49%, while other regions only achieved economic growth of around 5-6%. according to the gini ratio, kulon progo has a low-income inequality during the 2010-2021 period (< 0.4) with values that tend to be consistent. on the other hand, in the poverty (lnpov) model, economic growth has a significant positive effect on poverty. an increase in economic growth by 1% will increase poverty growth by 0.603%. the possibility of a positive association between economic growth on poverty cannot be ruled out (gupta & mitra, 2004). this positive result can happen since the region's income inequality is still considered high. as the results of a study by wan (2008), rapid economic growth without considering income inequality can trigger new poverty. maurilla, suriani, & nasir do poverty and economic growth matter for income inequality reduction … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 316 table 3 result of estimation of simultaneous equation three-stage-least-square equation observation 'r-sq' probability lnrgdp 60 0.738 0.000* lnpov 60 0.487 0.000* lngini 60 0.481 0.000* lnrgdp coefficient t-student probability cons 17.105 34.80 0.000* lnpov -0.268 -2.78 0.005* lngini 0.120 0.31 0.757 inv 1.62e-7 9.79 0.000* lnpov coefficient t-student probability cons -3.431 -1.01 0.310 lngini -1.424 -2.03 0.042** lnrgdp 0.603 3.36 0.001** lnedu -1.269 -2.24 0.025** un -0.175 -3.57 0.000* lngini coefficient t-student probability cons -6.872 -6.78 0.000* lnpov 0.105 1.12 0.263 lnrgdp -0.027 -0.39 0.694 lnwage 0.341 5.44 0.000* lnedu 0.475 1.72 0.086*** endogenous variables: lnrgdp, lnpov, lngini exogenous variables: inv lnedu un lnwage note: indicates significance: *at 1% level, ** at 5 % level, *** indicates at 10 % level. as illustrated in table 3, on the poverty model, income inequality significantly affects poverty, an increase of 1% in the growth of the gini ratio will reduce poverty growth by 1.424%. on the other side, poverty does not significantly affect income inequality. this is in line with a study by suriani, et al. (2020), who found that there is a one-way causal relationship between income inequality and poverty. in yogyakarta province, income inequality and poverty are peculiar occurrences. kulon progo and gunung kidul are regions with lower income inequality, but higher poverty rates compared to other regions. moreover, based on the poverty severity index (p2), which demonstrates the discrepancy in spending between the poor, both districts have a greater p2 index value than other regions. when the overall income gini ratio in kulon progo and gunung kidul is low, inequality among the poor is significantly greater than in other districts. the poverty level in some areas of yogyakarta province is still rather high, and there is still a discrepancy in spending among the poor people. therefore, poverty has little effect on income inequality. furthermore, in the poverty model, unemployment has a negative and significant effect on poverty. the decline in the unemployment rate will increase the poverty rate. this is in line with the study by wintara et al. (2021) found that the unskilled workers in aceh cause a person's opportunity to become manual workers was greater so they will earn relatively small incomes and have the opportunity to be poor greater even though they are already working. moreover, economic growth was found to affect significantly and maurilla, suriani, & nasir do poverty and economic growth matter for income inequality reduction … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 317 positively on poverty. an increase of 1% in economic growth will increase the growth of the poverty rate by 0.603. the positive impact was possible due to the unequal distribution of economic growth, higher population growth, and lower equality of human resources. meanwhile, according to a study by wau (2022), economic growth does not significantly affect poverty in underdeveloped regions due to the lower rate. thus, the government needs to focus on accelerating economic growth, especially for those regions. next, on the income inequality model, the district minimum wage has a significant effect (α=5%), and education growth also has a significant effect (α=10%) on income inequality. an increase in district minimum wage growth by 1% will increase gini ratio growth by 0.341%. an increase in education growth by 1% will increase the gini ratio growth by 0.475%. this is in line with research by sungkar et al. (2015), hidayat et al. (2020), and suryani & woyanti (2021), the increase in the district minimum wage shows that the price of labor is getting more expensive so that it can cause a decrease in demand for labor. the decline in the demand for labor will cause unemployment to increase and more people without an income, so income inequality is higher. as the neoclassical theory states that an increase in the minimum wage of workers will increase income inequality because a non-market will be instrumental in setting the minimum threshold in the labor market, so the demand for labor will decrease (yuliani et al., 2021). the education variable has a significant positive effect on income inequality. this is in line with the research findings of battistón et al. (2014) that an increase in the education sector increases inequality due to the convexity of returns to education on the labor market. however, investments in education are still needed because of the many positive implications for economic growth, poverty alleviation, inequality of opportunity, and others. the result of the study by suriani, et al. (2021) found that distribution in education, such as from zakat, is beneficial in achieving sustainable development goals. table 4 the government budget of yogyakarta province related to reducing income inequality from 2017 to 2021 no year programs activities budget (billion rupiah) gini ratio 1 2017 5 7 58,40 0.432 2 2018 5 17 163.00 0.441 3 2019 5 17 163.00 0.423 4 2020 5 17 163.00 0.434 5 2021 13 17 324.82 0.441 table 4 illustrates the effort of the local government of yogyakarta province to overcome income inequality. in the last five years, from 2017 to 2021, the government of yogyakarta province has established programs and activities designed by the regional development planning agency of yogyakarta province to overcome income inequality. the budget for reducing income inequality continues to increase from 58,40 billion rupiahs in 2017 to 324,82 billion rupiahs in 2021. this budget should be a potential for the government to overcome inequality. the conventional neoclassical model stated that an increase in government expenditure on the productive side would reduce income inequality in the long run (turnovsky & erauskin, 2021). maurilla, suriani, & nasir do poverty and economic growth matter for income inequality reduction … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 318 in 2022, they will prioritize equitable development, such as expanding access to health care, education, and infrastructure that can be felt by all individuals. these policies are expected to increase human development index (hdi), as the result of a study by suryani & woyanti (2021) stated that increasing hdi will reduce income inequality. labor productivity will rise when the quality of hdi gets better. the workers' pay is increased, and the community's welfare is more equitably distributed (fadliansah, et al., 2021). the government expenditure on health and education had a considerable and favorable effect on social welfare (wiksadana & sihaloho, 2021). this expenditure fosters economic growth to improve educational attainment and health. accordingly, education-focused policies are suitable in light of the findings of this study. the previous studies of yogyakarta province's income inequality found that economic growth did not have a significant effect on income inequality. it is caused by the unequal distribution of economic growth between the districts (suryani & woyanti, 2021; yuliani, 2021). yogyakarta district, which is the center of the economy, tends to have higher economic growth. tjahjadi and widhyharto (2018) studied the impact of education on people's income in yogyakarta province. in 2007, the average income of high school graduates was 333 thousand rupiahs per month. it increased to 936 thousand rupiahs per month in 2014. this salary rise is more than that of individuals with a lesser level of education. another study by shidiqi and pasiya (2019) also stated that the educational attainment of manufacturing workers is dramatically increasing their incomes. it is likely that workers in manufacturing industries have a strong educational background and earn better wages, and this trend is expanding as a result of incremental education. consequently, prior research confirms the findings of this study. these findings suggest that neither economic development nor poverty effectively reduces income inequality. the objective of policies designed to minimize economic inequality should not be to improve social outcomes. it should contemplate continuing long-term expansion (cingano, 2014). taxes and transfers, as redistribution policies, are an instrument for ensuring the equitable allocation of economic growth. besides that, it is essential to promote equality of opportunity through accessibility and quality of education. in the end, the creation of productive human resources will ultimately be able to support economic growth and reduce inequality and poverty murdiono and setiartiti (2014). this is also consistent with the primary objective of the government, which is equitable development. although economic growth and poverty did not significantly affect income inequality, the local government cannot simply ignore these two economic indicators. this study found a two-way relationship between economic growth and poverty. therefore, the policies related to increasing economic growth and poverty alleviation must be mutually sustainable. economic growth must be felt, especially by the poor, or growth policies must be pro-poor growth (odusola, 2019). the development process is inseparable from income inequality, particularly in the early stage of development. however, increasing income inequality must be restrained because maurilla, suriani, & nasir do poverty and economic growth matter for income inequality reduction … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 319 it generates societal discontent and leads to a variety of horizontal conflicts (suparmono & partina, 2021). conclusion this study provides empirical evidence on the application of the poverty-growthinequality triangle in understanding the problem of income inequality in yogyakarta province. the annual panel data used are regional gross domestic product, poor population, income gini ratio, gross fixed assets, average school year, open unemployment rate, and district minimum wage in 5 districts/cities of yogyakarta from 2010 to 2021. these data were analyzed using the simultaneous equation model (sem) method. the analysis showed that there is no causal relationship between economic growth or poverty on income inequality. on the other hand, economic growth and poverty have a causal relationship. additionally, district minimum wages and education influence income inequality. the implications of these results are the government should focus on equal distribution of wages and equal education in each district. therefore, this study has several recommendations. first, ensuring the equity of economic growth in all districts/cities and all economic sectors of yogyakarta province. second, ensuring the equity of education and its quality. third, increasing income taxes for the highest income of society and offset by effective and well-targeted government spending such as government assistance to the poor. fourth, reduce minimum wage inequality between counties/cities. the last, use budget potential to set strategic goals to reduce income inequality. this research has limitations in providing comprehensive information regarding the causality relationship between income inequality, poverty, and economic growth. therefore, future studies can further analyze the causality relationship between them in the long term and short term, using the granger causality and error correction model (ecm) methods. thus, the results of the analysis can be sorted into the form of short-term recommendations and long-term recommendations and applied in short-term and longterm planning documents. acknowledgment the authors gratefully acknowledge a grant from the indonesian ministry of education, culture, research, and technology's directorate general of higher education (dikti) for this research. on may 10, 2022, the following grants will be awarded: 145/e5/pg.02.00.pt/2022. the authors would also like to thank syiah kuala university's institute for research and community service (lppm) for arranging grant funding for this study. on may 10, 2022, the following grants will be awarded: 88/un11.2.1/pt.01.03/dprm/2022. maurilla, suriani, & nasir do poverty and economic growth matter for income inequality reduction … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 320 references almfraji, m. a., & almsafir, m. k. 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(1962). three-stage least squares: simultaneous estimation of simultaneous equations. econometrica, 30(1), 54-78. https://doi.org/10.2307/1911287 https://doi.org/10.22146/studipemudaugm.38032 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10290-021-00433-2 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199535194.001.0001 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2006.08.004 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-020-02521-6 https://doi.org/10.18196/jesp.v23i2.15307 https://doi.org/10.18196/jesp.v22i1.9337 https://doi.org/10.46336/ijbesd.v2i2.134 https://doi.org/10.18196/jesp.21.1.5035 https://doi.org/10.2991/aebmr.k.210220.053 https://doi.org/10.2307/1911287 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 21 nomor 1, april 2020 article type: research paper the relationship between public debt, budget deficit, and sustainable economic development in developing countries: the role of corruption control vo thi thuy van1, nguyen tran thai ha*1, phan gia quyen2, le thi hong anh3, and do thanh loi4 abstract: this study investigates the effects of public debt and budget deficits on the sustainable economic development of developing countries, taking into account the role of control of corruption. the two-step gmm method was applied for unbalanced panel data of 59 developing countries from 2004 to 2015. the study found that public debt and the budget deficit had negative effects on sustainable development, while the effect of control of corruption was positive. moreover, using interaction terms between control of corruption and public debt and budget deficit, respectively, empirical results showed that controlling corruption limited these adverse effects. thus, if the objective is to achieve sustainable economic development, developing countries should not see raising public debt or maintaining budget deficits as a strategy for economic development. the study contributes empirical evidence to the theory of debt overhang, crowded effects, and institutional theory in the context of developing countries. the implications are also discussed in this paper. keywords: public debt; budget deficit; sustainable economic development; corruption; developing countries. jel classification: h0; h62; h63; h83. introduction the phenomenon of sustainable development of the economy receives much attention because it focuses on meeting the needs of the present time without impacting on future needs, according to the report of the world commission on environment and development in 1987. it can be understood that sustained development of the economy is defined as economic growth with sustainability in the long-term, and it does not focus on high growth rates but only on growth in a manner that sustains natural resources and the environment for future generations. it has been one of the prerequisite goals of government and thus received interests from researchers in looking into factors that affect sustainable development in various economies. affiliation: 1saigon university, ho chi minh city, vietnam. 2university of economics and law, vietnam national university, ho chi minh city. vietnam. 3military commercial joint stock bank, thong nhat branch, vietnam. 4van an phat real estate joint stock company, vietnam. *correspondence: nguyen.tranthaiha@sgu.edu.vn this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.21.1.5033 citation: van, v. t. t., ha, n. t. t., quyen, p. g., anh, l. t. h., & loi, d. t. (2020). the relationship between public debt, budget deficit, and sustainable economic development in developing countries: the role of corruption control. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 21(1), 84-104. article history received: 5 february 2020 reviewed: 4 march 2020 revised: 31 march 2020 accepted: 19 april 2020 mailto:nguyen.tranthaiha@sgu.edu.vn http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/8224 http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp van, ha, quyen, anh, & loi the relationship between public debt, budget deficit, and sustainable economic development … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 85 the role of public debt is one crucial aspect that is very prominent in the process of economic development. its impact on economic development continuously causes debate between scholars and policy-makers due to its inconclusive results. indeed, public debt can promote or limit the economic growth (eberhardt & presbitero, 2015; égert, 2015; bal & rath, 2014; panizza & presbitero, 2014; abbas & christensen, 2009). harcourt and coddington (1984) claim that public debt in keynesian theory stimulates economic growth because it supplies more resources for government spending to promote infrastructure, construction, education, and health care to enhance the productive capacity of an economy. it also increases consumption as well as aggregate demand for goods, services, and employment of the economy at that time. however, prior studies show that the adverse effects of public debt on economic growth are noticeable (hussain, haque, & igwike, 2015; anita, ana, & martina, 2014; zouhaier & fatma, 2014; calderón & fuentes, 2013; šimić & vinko, 2012). an exceed rate of public debt is a primary result of low savings rates of a nation, and it leads to a reversal effect, which is called the debtoverhang effect (reinhart, reinhart, & rogoff, 2012). this effect occurs when the proportion of public debt is higher than a country’s ability to repay its debt. consequently, the nation’s costs associated with debt’s borrowing become relatively expensive, so it puts pressure on domestic and foreign investment shortly. moreover, crowding-out effects are seen as a cause of the negative effect of public debt on economic growth (gochoco, 1990; liaqat, 2019). according to elmendorf and mankiw (1999), a high ratio of public debt is the result of a prolonged situation of a budget deficit. the government continuously borrows to spend or invest, and it has the intention to increase interest rates that lead to a reduction in private investment spending, thus creating the crowding-out effect (buiter, 1977; morrissey & udomkerdmongkol, 2012). therefore, public debt is considered as an indirect reason to reduce the economic growth of countries due to the exceed spending of government. recently, pattillo, poirson, & ricci (2011) developed a theory on the relationship between public debt and economic growth through the proposal of a model of endogenous growth. the authors argued that public debt could have positive or negative effects on economic growth depending on the public debt proportion, and it is supported by the studies by wright and grenade (2014) and afonso and alves (2014) in recent years. meanwhile, caution in implementing fiscal policy is one of the essential pillars for economic development. however, the state budget deficit has become a common phenomenon in most countries, including developing countries and developed countries (tung, 2018). rodrik (2005) emphasizes that both financial solvency and well-established property rights are considered as a prerequisite for achieving significant and stable economic growth. however, the budget deficit and its role in economic development are still controversial. on the one hand, okelo, momanyi, othuon, and fredrick (2013) showed that budget deficits could help economic growth because it helped to increase the efficiency of restructuring, education, and social welfare, thereby promoting economic growth. moreover, a low budget deficit could help to reduce the occurrence of economic crisis and future risks of high and inconsistent public debt levels (clements, gupta, & inchauste, 2004; baldacci, cui, clements, & gupta, 2004). one the other hand, van, ha, quyen, anh, & loi the relationship between public debt, budget deficit, and sustainable economic development … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 86 the budget deficit could cause an increase in the cost of financial debt, thereby leading to financial burdens and loss of competitiveness of the economy (gaber, 2010). moreover, cohen, hawawini, maier, schwartz, & whitcomb (1983) indicated that institutional quality plays a vital role in the growth, and it is measured by bureaucracy, corruption, property rights, and laws and regulations. some studies suggest that corruption can be considered as the main factor in explaining the difference in the influences of public debt and budget deficit, which is found by previous studies (madni & chaudhary, 2017; barişik & baris, 2017; kim, ha, & kim, 2017). the authors argued that corruption could cause an increase in public debt, but the negative effect of public debt on economic growth became stronger in the countries where the corruption level was high with low transparency (cooray, dzhumashev, & schneider, 2017). the authors found that the improvement in institutional conditions promotes higher effectiveness of the fiscal policy. the author suggested that the good institutional aspects, such as government effectiveness, regulatory quality, and control of corruption, enhance the positive impacts of government expenditure on economic growth. similarly, other studies showed that corruption reduced economic investment (mauro, 1995; campos, lien, & pradhan, 1999), foreign direct investment (abed & davoodi, 2000), tax revenue (wei, 2000), labor productivity (lambsdorff, 2003), and increase the inflation (al-marhubi, 2000; blackburn, bose, & emranul haque, 2006), as well as shadow economy (schneider buehn, & montenegro, 2010). it claims that the effects of corruption are presented in various aspects of the economy, and they need to be considered in more detail. however, previous studies have left significant academic gaps in research on sustainable economic development in two aspects: (1) there have been many studies conducted on both theoretical and empirical analysis to find the influences of public debt or budget deficit to economic growth in short-term, but the results have been inconsistent; (2) there has been a significant shortage of studies on the relationship among public debt, budget deficit, and sustainable economic growth in long-term, especially in developing countries. moreover, most previous studies focused on explaining the relationship among public debt, budget deficit, and economic growth while ignoring the role of corruption as a critical factor in explaining the differences in their results of these studies. the role of corruption control, budget deficit, and public debt for sustainable economic development have not been fully mentioned in previous studies. thus, this study makes new contribution to the literature by directly addresses the aforementioned research gaps. the study also contributes to the theory and practice of determining the effects of public debt on sustainable economic development in the context of developing countries. this study is organized into five sections: section one presents an overview of the study; section two discusses the relevant theories and prior studies; section three describes the variables, empirical models and methods; section four presents and discusses the results; finally, section five provides main summaries and implications. economic growth, which is measured as a percentage change of the gross domestic product (gdp) or gross national product (gnp), may be positive or negative in different periods. negative economic growth reflects the recession, whereas positive economic growth reflects the expansion of an economy. it can be seen that economic growth occurs van, ha, quyen, anh, & loi the relationship between public debt, budget deficit, and sustainable economic development … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 87 when resources are exploited most effectively and reasonably (matiti, 2013). however, malthus and ricardo (in wrigley, 1998) argued that the scarcity of national resources could create limits to economic development, population growth, and personal income. therefore, the concept of sustainable economic development, referring to the optimal management of renewable resources, has received much attention from many leaders and researchers in the world (figuières, masclet, & willinger, 2012). in 1987, the brundtland report entitled “our future” defined sustainable economic development as meeting the needs of the present time without any harmful effect on future needs (commission world of environment and development, 1987). it can be noted that sustained economic development can be defined as an economic growth connecting with sustainable aspects in the long-term (pezzey, 1992). it is not focused on a high rate of economic growth but instead maintains sustainable growth by sustaining natural resources and the environment for future generations. in empirical studies, sustainable economic development can be measured as an increase in gdp at present compared to a given year in the past, such as a percentage change in gdp at the current year compared to gdp in four years ago (kim et al., 2017). sustainable economic development and public debt public debt is one of the critical aspects of economic development due to its ability to make financial resources for the economy. however, the keynesian model argues that no real burden is associated with public debt and that it has no significant impact on economic growth (metwally & tamaschke, 1994). the real burden happens at the time government spending is made when real resources are used up. public debt is a debt that the government owes to its economic sectors; it within the country does not complement its real resources. meanwhile, the public debt of external sectors is different because external public debt can supplement the nation’s real resources, and they must be returned within a particular time. the replacement of the current tax by public debt brings a macroeconomic expansion immediately because an increase in government spending financed by tax increases will create a different and low multiplier than financed by public debt. thus, public debt can boost the nation's economic growth. according to the keynesian model, public debt is not a factor in narrowing the fiscal policy (savvides, 1992). however, the opposite effect of public debt on economic growth can be explained by using the theory of debt overhang effect. krugman (1988) identifies that public debt as a situation in which investment is reduced or delayed because the private’s profits from its investments will be considered to use for paying public debt. it implies that future public debt is expected to increase with the nation’s output. as a result, the level of public debt will increase uncertainty behavior among investors regarding the policies that the government applies to pay its debt obligations. in this view, he argues that most potential investors would assume that the government would finance their debt obligations through increasing tax rates in the economy in the near future, and it leads to the dilemma of private investors. these investors will wait or delay to observe how their investment and economic growth will be affected by an increase in public debt. consequently, a higher proportion of public debt will have a negative effect on macroeconomic stability in the economy in the next years. it is illustrated by a limitation of capital flows while van, ha, quyen, anh, & loi the relationship between public debt, budget deficit, and sustainable economic development … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 88 occurring the capital flight in the economy (alesina, mirrlees, & neumann, 1989; cerra, rishi, & saxena, 2008). it makes economic development to become unstable. empirical evidence supporting the debt overhang effect is given, such as reinhart et al. (2012); hwang, chung, and wang (2010); sen, kasibhatla, and stewart (2007); and chowdhury (2001). in addition, the crowded-out effect is seen as another approach to investigate the effect of public debt on economic growth (heutel, 2012; liaqat, 2019). according to elmendorf and mankiw (1999), public debt is often used by countries to offset the deficit of state budget, and it often crowds out for private investments. it is claimed that loans will often lead to a rise in the interest rates when the government wants to increase the ratio of public debt. as soon as there is an increase in interest rates, it may reduce or put the private sectors to ignore their investments in the economy. the decline in private investment means that the whole economy will have low available capital for its operation, and it will reduce future economic growth. therefore, it can be seen that the higher public debt, the greater the crowded-out effect is created for private investment. consequently, the economic fluctuation will be created, and the high public debt will hinder the sustainable economic development of nations due to uncertainties in the future. h1: public debt has a negative effect on sustainable economic development sustainable economic development and budget deficit the impact of budget deficits can be explored from two different sides: positive or negative, long-term or short-term. on the positive side, the budget deficit is considered as an expanded fiscal policy to alleviate economic fluctuations related to external shocks, coping with economic recession (clements et al., 2004; baldacci et al., 2004). okelo et al. (2013) imply that budget deficits can help economic growth because it helps increase the efficiency of economic restructuring, providing more resources to invest in education, infrastructure, and social welfare. the keynes model also shows that by increasing the budget deficit, the government can expand spending and increase the aggregate demand of the economy, thus increasing the economy. however, the impact of budget deficits on economic growth is only significant in the short-term (karras, 1994). moreover, the use of budget deficits to stimulate growth can only be effective in the context of declining aggregate demand (for example, in the case of recession or crisis). when the economy is operating at full employment (there is no excess of production factors), increasing the budget deficit will not only affect aggregate demand but also threaten to increase of inflation for the economy (van & sudhipongpracha, 2015). in turn, a high inflation rate reduces aggregate demand, increases unemployment, it causes instability in the socioeconomic environment, the stability of macroeconomic growth is significantly affected (barro, 1995; bruno & easterly, 1998). besides, budget deficits can cause an increase in the cost of financial debt, thereby threatening the sustainability of fiscal policy as it leads to an increase in public debt van, ha, quyen, anh, & loi the relationship between public debt, budget deficit, and sustainable economic development … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 89 (agnello & sousa, 2013). woo (2003) argues that these fiscal policy results are in the presence of income inequality. it leads to strong effects that impede fiscal policies to show at a lower level of capital accumulation, and thus growth to collapse. policymakers use budget deficits to meet their short-term goals, and they conflict with maintaining longterm macroeconomic stability. it happens because policymakers may disagree with government spending components that will ultimately lead to distribution failures and determine government spending levels. in addition, shocks related to the level of government revenue will lead to many changes in government spending and, in turn, cause fiscal fluctuations next year. khan, khan, & zaman (2012) found that both government spending and budget deficits had adverse impacts on economic growth in pakistan between 1980 and 2010. earlier, fatima, ahmed, & rehman (2012) used timeseries data from 1978-2009 to examine the effects of budget deficits on economic growth in pakistan; they found evidence of an inverse relationship between these two indicators. therefore, the budget deficit is said to have a negative relationship with the sustainable development of the economy in the long-term. h2: budget deficit has a negative effect on sustainable economic development sustainable economic development and corruption institutional theory has recently been integrated to explain economic relations more clearly (cooray et al., 2017; ha et al., 2019; phung, van, thuong, & ha, 2019). north (1990) implies that institutional perspectives are the rules or regulations for the functioning of society, which are the foundation for interaction among residents and organizations. kim et al. (2017) suggest that a better institutional environment can promote higher levels of investment, and it can lead to sustained economic growth. moreover, a good institutional environment can also reduce the instability of the economic decision of policymakers and encourage more creative and productive activities. égert (2016) showed that regulations and institutional quality could affect the productivity of oecd countries. dort, méon, & sekkat (2014) provide empirical evidence to confirm that national investment promotes economic growth in countries with good institutional quality. bergeen et al. (2015) found that institutional quality was positively correlated with the economic growth of 35 countries in europe. phung et al. (2019) investigate a decisive intermediate role for institutional quality in promoting the relationship between innovation and economic growth. at the enterprise level, ha et al. (2019) revealed that the institutional environment would enhance firm profitability because it creates a comparative and transparent environment. the role of institutional quality is essential in the functioning of the economy and society. however, the measurement of institutional quality is a controversial issue. one of the widely applied measurements of institutional quality is the level of corruption (kim et al., 2017). a high level of corruption will have a significant opposite effect on sustainable economic development, through causing adverse effects to other macroeconomic factors. many previous studies have explained the impact of corruption on economic growth, and most studies have found a negative correlation between these two indicators, for van, ha, quyen, anh, & loi the relationship between public debt, budget deficit, and sustainable economic development … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 90 example, mauro (1995); tanzi and davoodi (2001). a country with low corruption will be able to increase investment, reduce inflation, increase national productivity, leading economic growth. for example, prior studies find that corruption will reduce investment (mauro, 1995; campos et al., 1999; brunetti & weder, 2003) and foreign direct investment as well as tax revenue (abed & davoodi, 2000; wei, 2000). lambsdorff (2003) argues that corruption would reduce labor productivity. high corruption is a testament to the disadvantage of the economy through higher inflation (al-marhubi, 2000; blackburn et al., 2006). corruption has the potential to significantly damage economic efficiency through the allocation of resources in the market system, disrupting competition, leading to innovation and brain drain in a country and beyond. it leads to an uncomfortable business environment, lower growth rate with lower tax revenue and higher public debt, so preventing economic development (tarek & ahmed, 2017). therefore, this study proposes that corruption control plays an active role in reducing the negative effects of corruption, thereby promoting sustainable economic development. h3: corruption control has a positive impact on sustainable economic development. sustainable economic development, public debt, budget deficit, and corruption studies on budget deficits and budget deficits and their determinants have focused on macroeconomic indicators and ignored the intermediate impact of institutional quality. alesina et al. (1989) support the idea that macroeconomic indicators are not only sufficient to explain budget deficits, concerns for the impact of institutional factors on the budget deficit. by emphasizing the importance of the institutional framework of the economy, it helps ensure the sustainability of good macroeconomic policies. however, budget overspending will have a major impact if accompanied by high levels of corruption because the revenue and expenditure aspects of government budgets are strongly affected by corruption. in terms of revenue, less revenue is due to bribes by public officials, while government spending is misleading or misrepresented for their composition (chowdhury & michael geringer, 2001). corruption leads to budget deficits when public revenue decreases, while public spending simultaneously increases. the inefficiency of this system exacerbates the implementation of sound fiscal policy (lambsdorff, 2003; tanzi & zee, 1997). it creates a vicious cycle of corruption and borrowing in the near future and causes unstable economic growth. therefore, controlling corruption will reduce the adverse effects of the budget deficit on sustainable economic development. h4: the interaction between budget deficit and corruption control has a positive impact on sustainable economic growth. in addition, a high deficit leads to an increase in public debt, while the resources allocated to repaying public debt become a constraint on productivity growth and will create a crowded effect (heutel, 2012; liaqat, 2019). existing literature indicates that corruption distorts public spending and leads to suboptimal government spending (cooray et al., van, ha, quyen, anh, & loi the relationship between public debt, budget deficit, and sustainable economic development … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 91 2017; tanzi & davoodi, 2001). kaufman (2010) argues that a government finances its spending by increasing debt, in the case of corruption, which means that, once again, a higher debt is required, leading to a higher debt servicing cost. this practice of corruption increases public debt and future repayment costs, thereby reducing the positive results of sustainable economic development. therefore, controlling corruption will limit the inefficiency of public debt on sustainable economic development. h5: the interaction between public debt and corruption control has a positive impact on sustainable economic growth. research method in order to estimate the effects of public debt on sustainable economic development, this study developed empirical models for panel data that was used by woo and kumar (2015) and kim et al. (2017). then, the study improved equation (1) to equation (2) to check the influence of corruption control to sustainable economic development, as follows: 𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑤𝑡ℎ𝑖𝑡 = 𝛽0 ∗ log(𝑦𝑖𝑡−4) + 𝛽1 ∗ 𝑑𝑒𝑏𝑡𝑖𝑡−4 + 𝛽2 ∗ 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑡−4 + 𝛽3 ∗ 𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑟𝑢𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡−4 + 𝛾 ∗ 𝑋𝑖𝑡−4 + 𝜀𝑖𝑡 (1) where i and t illustrate the countries and the time periods, respectively (i = 1, ..., 59 and t = 2004, ..., 2015). according to kim et al. (2017), 𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑤𝑡ℎ𝑖𝑡 is a dependent variable, and it is represented by the sustainable economic development of country i at t time. it is defined by the average growth rate of real gdp per capita of country i over a period of four years. then, it is as follow: 𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑤𝑡ℎ𝑖𝑡 = 1 4 ∗ 𝐺𝐷𝑃𝑃𝐶𝑖𝑡−𝐺𝐷𝑃𝑃𝐶𝑖𝑡−4 𝐺𝐷𝑃𝑃𝐶𝑖𝑡−4 (2) the initial gdp per capita is controlled for with log(𝑦𝑖𝑡−4). moreover, 𝑑𝑒𝑏𝑡𝑖𝑡−4 and 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑡−4 are the public debt ratio and the difference between spending and revenue ratio of country i at the beginning of the period. 𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑟𝑢𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡−4 is the level of corruption at the t-4 time ago of country i. 𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑟𝑢𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡−4 is corruption level of country i at the beginning of the period, represented by two indicators: (1) the level of corruption control which is collected from the world governance indicator (wgi) of worldbank, and (2) the corruption index comes from the international country risk guide (icrg). an increase in these two variables implies a low level of national corruption. 𝑋𝑖𝑡−4 is a vector of other control variables, and 𝛾 is a vector of coefficients for those control variables (see more at table 1). they are often used by many studies in economic growth, such as phung et al. (2019), kim et al. (2017), ha and quyen (2018), barro and lee (2013), and blackburn et al. (2006). the last term, 𝜀𝑖𝑡 is the idiosyncratic error term. van, ha, quyen, anh, & loi the relationship between public debt, budget deficit, and sustainable economic development … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 92 table 1 description of variables variables abbreviation measurement database dependent variable sustainable economic development growth 1 4 ∗ 𝐺𝐷𝑃𝑃𝐶𝑖𝑡 − 𝐺𝐷𝑃𝑃𝐶𝑖𝑡−4 𝐺𝐷𝑃𝑃𝐶𝑖𝑡−4 world bank independent variables public debt debt the ratio between public debt and gdp. imf budget deficit deficit the ratio between the difference from spending to revenue of government with gdp. world bank corruption 1 corr1 corruption index from the international country risk guide. icrg corruption 2 corr2 the indicator of control of corruption from the world governance indicator. world bank control variables human capital human the human capital index is collected from the database of barro and lee. barro and lee government size govsize the ratio between government spending and gdp. world bank trade openness trade the ratio is calculated by the total of export and import on gdp. world bank inflation infl the ratio in the change in price consumption. world bank source: author, 2020 in order to estimate the interactive effects of corruption and public debt on sustainable economic development, this study improved equation (1) to equation (3). the model was developed with the interaction term among public debt and control of corruption, as follows: 𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑤𝑡ℎ𝑖𝑡 = 𝛽0 ∗ log(𝑦𝑖𝑡−4) + 𝛽1 ∗ 𝑑𝑒𝑏𝑡𝑖𝑡−4 + 𝛽2 ∗ 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑡−4 + 𝛽3 ∗ 𝑑𝑒𝑏𝑡𝑖𝑡−4 ∗ 𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑟𝑢𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡−4 + 𝛾 ∗ 𝑋𝑖𝑡−4 + 𝜀𝑖𝑡 (3) 𝑑𝑒𝑏𝑡𝑖𝑡−4 ∗ 𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑟𝑢𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡−4 is an interaction variable between the public debt ratio and the level of corruption at the beginning of the period of country i. from equation (3), it can be seen that the marginal effect of public debt on sustainable economic development would be determined as a function of the dependent variable of corruption. particularly, the equation of dependent corruption is as follows: 𝜕(𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑤𝑡ℎ𝑖𝑡) 𝜕(𝑑𝑒𝑏𝑡𝑖𝑡−4) = 𝛽1 + 𝛽3 ∗ 𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑟𝑢𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡−4 (4) based on equation (4), it can be seen that if the corruption indicator at the t-4 time is smaller −𝛽1 𝛽3 ⁄ of public debt, it will hinder the sustainable economic development. however, if the corruption indicator at t-4 time is greater −𝛽1 𝛽3 ⁄ of public debt, it will be van, ha, quyen, anh, & loi the relationship between public debt, budget deficit, and sustainable economic development … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 93 able to boost sustainable economic development. we note that the corruption indicator has a negative relation with the level of national corruption. in order to estimate the interactive effects of corruption and budget deficit on sustainable economic development, this study transformed equation (1) to equation (5). the model was developed with the interaction term among public debt and control of corruption, as follows: 𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑤𝑡ℎ𝑖𝑡 = 𝛽0 ∗ log(𝑦𝑖𝑡−4) + 𝛽1 ∗ 𝑑𝑒𝑏𝑡𝑖𝑡−4 + 𝛽2 ∗ 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑡−4 + 𝛽3 ∗ 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑡−4 ∗ 𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑟𝑢𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡−4 + 𝛾 ∗ 𝑋𝑖𝑡−4 + 𝜀𝑖𝑡 (5) 𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑡−4 ∗ 𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑟𝑢𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡−4 is an interaction variable between the budget deficit ratio and the level of corruption at the t-4 time of country i. from equation (5), it can be seen that the marginal effect of budget deficit on sustainable economic development would be determined as a function of the dependent variable of corruption. mainly, the equation of dependent corruption is as follows: 𝜕(𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑤𝑡ℎ𝑖𝑡) 𝜕(𝑑𝑒𝑓𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑡−4) = 𝛽1 + 𝛽3 ∗ 𝑐𝑜𝑟𝑟𝑢𝑝𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡−4 (6) based on equation (6), it can be seen that if the corruption indicator at the t-4 time is smaller −𝛽1 𝛽3 ⁄ of the budget deficit, it will hinder the sustainable economic development. however, if the corruption indicator at the t-4 time is greater −𝛽1 𝛽3 ⁄ of the budget deficit, it will be able to boost sustainable economic development. we note that the corruption indicator has a negative relation with the level of national corruption methodology prior growth models’ predictions were somewhat inconsistent with observations from reality because factors such as human capital and government spending, which have become endogenous factors behind economic development. empirical analysis using ordinary least squares (ols) did not bring valid and reliable results due to bias and inconsistent regression. therefore, this study applied the two-step system generalized method of moments (two-step sys-gmm) to deal with heterogeneity, serial correlation, and endogenous issues (kim et al., 2017). the study used the lags of the dependent variable and control variables as instrument variables for gmm estimations because of their endogenous effect in models. the hansen test was employed for the validity and robustness of estimations, while the arellano-bond test ar (2) showed the autocorrelation for residual (roodman, 2009). result and discussion macro data for this study were collected from the databases of world bank, international monetary fund (imf), as well as barro and lee’s database, while corruption indices were van, ha, quyen, anh, & loi the relationship between public debt, budget deficit, and sustainable economic development … table 2 descriptive statistics variables mean st. deviation min median max gdppcgr 0.1104 0.0698 -0.0028 0.0965 0.6868 debt 0.5349 0.3688 0.0587 0.4339 2.3618 corr1 2.1233 0.7292 0.0000 2.0000 5.0000 corr2 0.4224 0.1805 0.0000 0.4084 1.0000 infl 10.293 19.733 -7.714 6.933 418.019 gsize 12.910 5.196 0.000 13.200 31.527 trade 70.946 34.587 0.000 66.499 220.407 human 2.0896 0.5803 1.0695 2.0738 3.3016 deficit -0.658 4.769 -17.302 -0.767 40.340 log(yit-4) 11.005 2.361 4.965 10.652 17.277 source: author, 2020 obtained from the international country risk guide and worldwide governance indicators. we note that this study attempted to collect data as much as possible, but some primary data were limited (for example, debt ratio by imf and corruption index by icrg). thus, the collected data covered 59 developing countries from 2004 to 2015 after excluding lacked data (see the list of selected countries in appendix 1). they were organized into unbalanced panel data for gmm estimations. it can be seen that sustainable economic development represented by gdppcgr had an average value of 0.1104 and a standard deviation of 0.0698. these results imply that gdp per capita of countries generally increased by 11.04% during the previous four years, and there was a significant difference in the sustainable economic development of countries. similarly, the public debt of countries four years ago had an average value of 0.5349, showing the proportion of public debt in national gdp four years ago. kazakhstan in 2011 had the lowest public debt ratio with 0.05874 of ldebt, while nicaragua in 2007 with 2,3618 ldebt was a country with the highest public debt ratio in the four years ago. moreover, based on the largest and smallest values of corruption indicators, it can be seen that there was a significant deviation between countries in the research sample with 2.1233 mean and 0.7292 standard deviations (icrg). the average value was 0.4224, and the standard deviation was 0.0698 when considering with wgi. first, the study estimated the impact of corruption and public debt on countries' sustainable economic growth, in which corruption was represented by the level of control of corruption from wgi. an increase in this index implies a low level of corruption. the results are presented in table 3 and table 4. it can be seen that both ar (2) and hansen tests produced a p-value of 10% higher than statistical significance. it implies that autocorrelation in the research model did not occur when using gmm estimates, while the instrument variables were not correlated with residuals. thus, our findings were robust and reliable, and they could be used to interpret and discuss implications. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 94 van, ha, quyen, anh, & loi the relationship between public debt, budget deficit, and sustainable economic development … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 95 table 3 the relationship between public debt, budget deficit, and sustainable economic development independent variable: gdppcgr model (1) model (2) corruption indicator 1: icrg (1) corruption indicator 2: wgi (2) log(gdppc) -0.09598*** [-54.20] -0.09084*** [-50.22] 0.08347*** [-31.96] debt -0.05271*** [-15.26] -0.04816*** [-15.62] -0.04935*** [-12.81] deficit -0.00108*** [-21.50] -0.00095*** [-26.56] -0.00072*** [-16.01] corr1 0.00310* [1.77] corr2 0.02570* [1.83] gsize 0.00180*** [14.71] 0.00182*** [10.26] 0.00138*** [10.67] infl 0.00058*** [52.65] 0.00062*** [23.07] 0.00078*** [26.45] trade 0.00043*** [10.17] 0.00065*** [19.83] 0.00079*** [15.96] human 0.13398*** [9.72] 0.08857*** [6.79] 0.04605*** [3.25] const. 0.85645*** [39.13] 0.87546*** [33.05] 0.86668*** [32.93] ar(1) 0.542 0.517 0.276 ar(2) 0.853 0.844 0.993 hansen 0.259 0.209 0.236 num. group 59 59 59 num. iv 59 59 59 obs 677 677 677 note: (*), (**), and (***) are 10%, 5%, and 1%, respectively, z-statistic in [ ] source: author, 2020 the results presented in table 3 show that the coefficients of debt in the model (1) and (2) are from -0.04817 to -0.05271, and both coefficients are statistically significant at level 1%. these findings showed that a 1% increase in public debt in the previous four years would reduce from 0.04817% to 0.05271% in sustainable economic development. in other words, public debt will impede the sustainable economic growth of nations. our results are similar to the previous findings of dipeitro and anoruo (2012), šimić and vinko (2012), and panizza and presbitero (2013). it can be interpreted in terms of overhang-debt and crowding-out effects. according to the overhang debt theory, high public debt is an uncertain situation in which domestic investment is reduced or delayed because potential investors would assume that the government would finance their debt obligations through increasing tax rates in the economy, and they think that their profits will be used to pay the public debt (krugman, 1988). moreover, a high ratio of public debt implies that the interest rate will be raised when the government wants to borrow more debt. in turn, the high-interest rate causes a reduction in private investment, and the usable capital of the economy will fall to a low level. besides that, according to the crowding-out effect, van, ha, quyen, anh, & loi the relationship between public debt, budget deficit, and sustainable economic development … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 96 public debt is often used by countries to offset the state budget deficit, and the expansion of government spending is also the main factor that eliminates out private investment (elmendorf & mankiw, 1999). consequently, sustainable economic development will be influenced by the increase of uncertainty among investors regarding the policies that the government applies to pay its debt obligations. the budget deficit was found as an inverse correlation with sustainable economic growth with a statistical significance of 1%. deficit coefficients ranged from -0,00072 to 0.00108, suggesting that countries with high deficits were more constrained by sustainable economic growth. our results confirmed that the budget deficit could lead to an increase in public debt in the long term. it could also lead to inefficient resource allocation. in the future, the government must prioritize resources when allocated to pay public debt. besides, the budget deficit brings limitations to the productivity of the economy and will create a crowded effect. on the one hand, the budget deficit threatens the stability of the economy in the future as the problem of external debt and debt service has continued to increase over time (ali & mustafa, 2012). on the other hand, it leads to a negative impact on investment. private investment is negatively affected by internal and external debt service, total debt stock, and tax burden. public borrowing after a prolonged fiscal deficit leads to a financial outburst because it accounts for savings that can be used for private investment (ali & mustafa, 2012; chowdhury, 2001). as a result, long-term sustainable growth of the economy is significantly reduced when the budget deficit is prolonged. the regression coefficients of the variables represented for control of corruption ranged from 0.00310 to 0.02570, respectively, with a statistical significance of 10%. they showed that if corruption were well controlled, represented by an increase in the value of corr1 (icrg) and corr2 (wgi), sustainable economic growth would increase from 0.00310 to 0.002570. our results illustrate the critical role of control of corruption in economic development. controlling corruption will minimize conflicts in the distribution of national resources, reduce the loss of government revenue, increase the competitiveness and transparency of the business environment. as a result, investment activities will be promoted; trust in the business environment will be improved. in turn, they will promote stable economic development in the long term (mauro, 1995; tanzi & davoodi, 2001; kim et al., 2017). the role of control of corruption is also reflected in the ability to control the negative impact of budget deficits and public debt, which are shown in table 5. the coefficients of the interaction variable between public debt and corruption, interact1 and interact2, received 0.01681 and 0.08541, respectively. our findings suggested that countries with low levels of corruption would restrict the negative impact of public debt on sustainable economic growth. in other words, countries with low levels of corruption would have higher levels of sustainable economic development when increasing their public debt than countries with high levels of corruption. our results are similar to the findings of kim et al. (2017). based on equation (4), we also found that the threshold value of control of corruption was 4.92 and 0.93 in equation (3), respectively. it implies that control of corruption had to be higher than 4.92 (icrg) and 0.93 (wgi) to bring overwhelm to the negative impacts of public debt totally. meanwhile, the coefficients of the interaction van, ha, quyen, anh, & loi the relationship between public debt, budget deficit, and sustainable economic development … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 97 variable between budget deficit and corruption, interact3, and interact4, got 0.00131 and 0.00397, respectively. based on equation (6), we found that the threshold value of control of corruption was 2.81 (icrg) and 0.62 (wgi) for equation (4). enhancing the control of corruption will promote both sustainable economic development and reducing the negative impacts of public debt as well as the budget deficit. table 4 the relationship between public debt, budget deficit, and sustainable economic development independent variable: gdppcgr model (3) model (4) corruption indicator 1: icrg (1) corruption indicator 2: wgi (2) corruption indicator 1: icrg (1) corruption indicator 2: wgi (2) log(gdppc) -0.09459*** [-31.61] -0.94108*** [-46.40] -0.99057*** [-47.62] -0.09641*** [-46.52] debt -0.08283*** [-16.37] -0.07980*** [-21.09] -0.05668*** [-13.73] -0.48075*** [-17.70] deficit -0.00113*** [-38.19] -0.00106*** [-22.31] -0.00368*** [-10.27] -0.00247*** [-18.23] debt*corr1 0.01681*** [6.87] debt*corr2 0.08541*** [6.80] deficit*corr1 0.00131*** [7.29] deficit*corr2 0.00397*** [6.37] gsize 0.00223*** [13.14] 0.00201*** [13.34] 0.00234*** [12.93] 0.00279*** [22.65] infl 0.00059*** [15.34] 0.00064*** [26.03] 0.00059*** [27.28] 0.00057*** [16.81] trade 0.00070*** [5.73] 0.00071*** [10.92] 0.00030*** [5.70] 0.00066*** [9.77] human 0.11383*** [5.73] 0.11068*** [5.83] 0.16311*** [13.33] 0.13627*** [8.20] const. 0.85558*** [28.75] 0.86175*** [27.45] 0.83467*** [33.09] 0.82346*** [31.63] ar(1) 0.531 0.450 0.411 .595 ar(2) 0.887 0.950 0.935 0.932 hansen 0.242 0.238 0.179 0.229 num. group 59 59 59 59 num. iv 58 58 58 58 obs 677 677 677 677 threshold 4.92 0.93 2.81 0.62 note: (*), (**), and (***) are 10%, 5%, and 1%, respectively, z-statistic in [ ] source: author, 2020 van, ha, quyen, anh, & loi the relationship between public debt, budget deficit, and sustainable economic development … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 98 the regression coefficients of gsize in table 3 and table 4 range from 0.00138 to 0.00279, and they are statistically significant at 1%. this result showed that when the size of governments in the previous four years increased, it would enhance sustainable economic development in the long-term. the more government spending is, the more infrastructure will be created. thus, they will reduce production costs, input costs of business activities, thereby increasing the income of the economy as well as promoting economic growth. moreover, government spending on health and education will improve the human health, knowledge sharing, and skills of the workforce, thereby boosting the productivity of national labor. as a result, the output of the economy will be enhanced. our result is similar to previous studies by chowdhury (2001), wahab and holland (2012), and alshahrani and alsadiq (2014). the coefficients of inf in table 3 and table 4 fluctuate from 0.00058 to 0.00078, and they are statistically significant at 1%. this result revealed that inflation could boost sustainable economic development when its rate in the previous four years increased. it reflects the theory of the philips curve because inflation will be able to stimulate economic growth by minimizing the nation's unemployment rate. our findings are similar to the findings of cho wdhury (2001); rapach (2003); and benhabib and spiegel (2009). in table 3 and table 4, trade has regression coefficients, which range from 0.00030 to 0.00079, and they are both statistically significant at the 1% level. it illustrates that the trade openness of the previous four years improved the countries' sustainable economic growth statistically. it can be explained that a country with a high degree of integration with the world can increase its exports and imports. on the one hand, it can boost domestic production productivity for export. on the other hand, it creates an opportunity to import technology and knowledge from the outside. as a result, it can improve the productivity of the economy and lead to a higher level of sustainable economic growth. our findings are similar to the findings of baum, checherita-westphal, & rother (2013), kim et al. (2017), and phung et al. (2019). lastly, human receives coefficients which were from 0.04605 to 0.16311, and they were statistically significant at the 1% level. they showed that high human capital had a positive impact on sustainable economic development. the improvement of human capital will be to attract foreign investors as well as promote innovation activities in the country (grossman, 2000). in turn, innovation will promote sustainable economic growth (phung et al., 2019). our results are similar to the findings of previous authors, such as woo and kumar (2015); and kim kim et al. (2017). conclusion this study investigates the effects of public debt and budget deficits on sustainable economic development of developing countries, meanwhile expanding to explore the role of control of corruption in these relations. by using the two-step gmm method for unbalanced panel data of 59 developing countries from 2004 to 2015, the study found that public debt and budget deficits had negative influences on sustainable economic van, ha, quyen, anh, & loi the relationship between public debt, budget deficit, and sustainable economic development … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 99 development while controlling corruption had a positive impact on sustainable economic development. countries with high public debt will create situations in which it reduces investment, creates crowding-out effects of private investment and potential economic uncertainty. as a result, public debt impedes the sustainable economic growth of nations. similarly, budget deficits cause an increase in the cost of financial debt, thus threatening the sustainability of fiscal policy as it leads to an increase in public debt and a failure to allocate national resources. consequently, budget deficits also hinder the process of sustainable economic growth. however, using, in turn, an interactive variable between controlling corruption and public debt or budget deficits, the study found that countries with good levels of control of corruption limited the negative impacts of public debt and budget deficit on sustainable economic growth. in other words, for countries with high levels of control of corruption, an increase in public debt or budget deficits will lead to higher sustainable economic growth than countries with low levels of control of corruption. low corruption will be able to increase investment, reduce inflation, increase national productivity, pushing economic growth. good control of corruption brings the chance for improving competition and innovation, leading to a comfortable business environment. moreover, good control of corruption also reduces the stress of budget deficit as well as a public debt due to a good allocation of resources and transparency of government expenditure. consequently, it leads to sustainable growth and plays an active role in reducing the negative effects of corruption, thereby promoting sustainable economic development. based on the results, this study provides some policy implications. first, developing countries should not consider to raise public debt or maintain budget deficits as keys for economic development if the government's goal is to aim for sustainable economic growth. instead of that, developing countries need to increase the quality of control of corruption to create a competitive and transparent of the business environment, promote private investment, and reduce instability of the economy in cases of wanting to use budget deficits as an expansionary fiscal policy to boost economic spending, investment, and consumption. control of corruption also encourages more creative and productive social activities. in addition, for countries with good levels of control of corruption, the use of public debt can be considered as a solution to complement the nation's resources. finally, the government can implement policies that aim to increase consumption, open greater integration, and invest heavily in human capital so they can improve sustainable economic development in the long-term. references abbas, s. m. a., & christensen, j. e. 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annisa tri utami1, daryono soebagiyo2 1,2 fakultas ekonomi dan bisnis universitas muhammadiyah surakarta kampus a yani tromolpos 1 pabelan kartasura surakarta 57102, indonesia phone: +62 271 717417. e-mail korespondensi: daryono51@ymail.com naskah diterima: januari 2013; disetujui: juli 2013 abstract: this study aims to determine how the influence of gross domestic product (gdp) on the inflation rate in indonesia, how the influence in the money supply on inflation rate in indonesia, how the influence of currency exchange rate rupiah / usd on the inflation rate in indonesia, and how the influence of reserves foreign exchange on the inflation rate in indonesia. the data used in this study is quantitative data and data sources used are quarterly data with the period 2007-2013. the method used in this study is the method of least squares regression or ordinary least squares (ols). the results showed that the gross domestic product, money supply, exchange rates and international reserves simultaneously affect inflation in indonesia in 2007-2013. gross domestic product (gdp) and foreign exchange reserves in that period did not affect inflation in indonesia. money supply significant negative effect on inflation in indonesia. exchange rates significant positive effect on inflation in indonesia keywords: inflation; gross domestic product; money supply; international reserve jel classification: e31; e51 abstrak: studi ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui bagaimana pengaruh produk domestik bruto (pdb) terhadap tingkat inflasi di indonesia, bagaimana pengaruh perubahan jumlah uang beredar terhadap tingkat inflasi di indonesia, bagaimana pengaruh nilai tukar mata uang rupiah/usd terhadap tingkat inflasi di indonesia, dan bagaimana pengaruh cadangan devisa terhadap tingkat inflasi di indonesia. jenis data yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah data kuantitatif dan sumber data yang digunakan adalah data triwulan dengan periode 2007-2013. metode yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah metode regresi kuadrat terkecil atau ordinary least square (ols). hasil menunjukkan bahwa produk domestik bruto, jumlah uang beredar, nilai tukar, dan cadangan devisa secara serempak mempengaruhi inflasi di indonesia pada tahun 2007-2013. produk domestik bruto (pdb) dan cadangan devisa pada periode tersebut tidak mempengaruhi inflasi di indonesia. jumlah uang beredar berpengaruh negatif signifikan terhadap inflasi di indonesia. nilai tukar berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap inflasi di indonesia. kata kunci: inflasi; gross domestic product; jumlah uang beredar; cadangan devisa klasifikasi jel: e31; e51 pendahuluan dalam perspektif ekonomi, inflasi merupakan fenomena moneter dalam suatu negara di mana naik turunnya inflasi cenderung mengakibatkan terjadinya gejolak ekonomi karena inflasi berpengaruh terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, neraca perdagangan internasional, nilai utang piutang antarnegara, tingkat bunga, tabungan, domestik, pengangguran, dan kesejahteraan masyarakat. perkembangan fluktuasi harga barang dan jasa kebutuhan terus meningkat, dan nilai tukar uang selalu turun dibandingkan nilai barang dan jasa, gejala tersebut merupakan inflasi. penentu inflasi di indonesia ... (annisa tri utami, daryono soebagiyo) 145 inflasi adalah proses kenaikan harga-harga barang dan jasa secara umum dan terus menerus. kenaikan harga yang sifatnya sementara seperti momen hari raya (tidak terus menerus) dan kenaikan harga dari satu atau dua barang saja tidak dapat disebut inflasi kecuali bila kenaikan itu meluas (atau mengakibatkan kenaikan) kepada barang lainnya. secara umum inflasi memiliki dampak positif dan dampak negatif, tergantung parah atau tidaknya inflasi. apabila inflasi itu ringan justru mempunyai pengaruh yang positif dalam arti dapat mendorong perekonomian lebih baik yaitu meningkatkan pendapatan nasional dan membuat orang bergairah untuk bekerja menabung dan mengadakan investasi. sebaliknya, dalam masa inflasi yang parah, yaitu pada saat terjadi inflasi tak terkendali (hiperinflasi) keadaan perekonomian menjadi kacau dan perekonomian dirasakan lesu, orang menjadi tidak bersemangat kerja, menabung atau mengadakan investasi dan produksi karena harga meningkat dengan cepat, para penerima pendapatan tetap seperti pegawai negeri atau karyawan swasta serta kaum buruh akan kewalahan menanggung dan mengimbangi harga sehingga hidup mereka menjadi semakin merosot dan terpuruk dari waktu ke waktu. untuk menghindari dampak dari naik turunnya inflasi perlu adanya pengendalian inflasi. dalam hal ini bank sentral memiliki peranan penting dalam mengendalikan inflasi. bank sentral suatu negara pada umumnya berusaha mengendalikan tingkat inflasi pada tingkat yang wajar. beberapa bank sentral bahkan memiliki kewenangan yang independen dalam artian bahwa kebijakannya tidak boleh diintervensi oleh pihak di luar bank sentral, termasuk pemerintah. saat ini pola inflation targeting banyak diterapkan oleh bank sentral di seluruh dunia, termasuk oleh bank indonesia. inflasi di indonesia diumpamakan seperti penyakit endemis dan berakar di sejarah. inflasi di indonesia sempat mencapai tingkat tertinggi pada masa presiden soekarno, karena kebijakan fiskal dan moneter sama sekali tidak prudent (perlu uang tinggal cetak). di masa soeharto, pemerintah berusaha menekan inflasi, akan tetapi tidak bisa di bawah 10% setahun ratarata, antara lain dikarenakan bank indonesia masih mempunyai misi ganda yang salah satunya adalah sebagai agent of development yang bisa mengucurkan kredit likuiditas tanpa batas. saat di masa reformasi, dimulai pada pemerintahan habibie maka fungsi bank indonesia mengutamakan penjagaan nilai rupiah. akan tetapi sejarah dan karena inflationary expectetions masyarakat yang bercermin kepada sejarah maka inflasi ini masih lebih besar daripada 5% setahun. laju inflasi di indonesia terus mengalami fluktuasi. pada tahun 2007 namun hanya sebesar 0,01%. pada tahun 2008 inflasi kembali mengalami kenaikan sebesar 4,47%. setelah mengalami kenaikan inflasi, tahun 2009 menurun sekitar 8,28%. inflasi terjadi kembali di tahun 2010 sebesar 4,81%. kemudian di tahun 2011 menurun sebesar 3,17%. pada tahun 2012 inflasi meningkat sekitar 0,51%. namun di tahun 2013 inflasi meningkat cukup tinggi sebesar 94,88%. tabel 1 memberi gambaran perkembangan inflasi di indonesia periode tahun 2007-2013. tabel 1. inflasi di indonesia tahun 2007-2013 tahun inflasi (%) fluktuasi (%) 2007 6,59 -0,01 2008 11,06 4,47 2009 2,78 -8,28 2010 6,96 4,18 2011 3,79 -3,17 2012 4,3 0,51 2013 8,38 94,88 sumber: laporan tahunan bank indonesia, 2013 inflasi yang terjadi di negara berkembang relatif lebih tinggi dibanding negara maju dan juga lebih fluktuatif. secara kuantitas, inflasi di indonesia secara kuantitas dari tahun ke tahun maupun dari bulan ke bulan mengalami kecenderungan meningkat dari waktu ke waktu meskipun sempat mengalami penurunan pada saat tertentu. dilihat dari persentase laju pertumbuhannya berfluktuasi dengan kecenderungan menaik. salah satu indikator ekonomi makro guna melihat stabilitas perekonomian suatu negara adalah inflasi. namun, inflasi juga telah menjadi permasalaham perekonomian di indonesia sejak lama di mana fenomena inflasi ini sangat dipengaruhi oleh sejumlah faktor yang berasal jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 2, oktober 2013: 144-152 146 dari variabel domestik dan variabel eksternal. variabel-variabel tersebut di antaranya produk domestik bruto, jumlah uang beredar, nilai tukar mata uang, dan cadangan devisa, serta faktor perubahan atau guncangan ekonomi negara lain, dan lain sebagainya namun faktor-faktor tersebut terkadang kurang bisa konsisten dalam menjelaskan faktor-faktor apa yang menentukan inflasi dari waktu ke waktu. menurut solihin (2012), faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi pembentukan inflasi di banyak negara, termasuk indonesia berasal dari variabel domestik dan variabel eksternal. variabelvariabel tersebut diantaranya produk domestik bruto, jumlah uang beredar, nilai tukar mata uang, cadangan devisa, dan perubahan atau guncangan ekonomi negara lain (solihin, 2011). pada masa perekonomian yang berkembang pesat, kesempatan kerja yang tinggi menciptakan tingkat pendapatan yang tinggi dan selanjutnya menimbulkan pengeluaran yang melebihi kemampuan ekonomi mengeluarkan barang dan jasa. pengeluaran yang berlebihan ini akan menimbulkan inflasi. apabila masyarakat masih terus menambah pengeluarannya maka permintaan agregat akan kembali naik. untuk memenuhi permintaan yang semakin bertambah tersebut, perusahaan-perusahaan akan menambah produksinya dan menyebabkan pendapatan nasional riil (pdb) menjadi meningkat pula. kenaikan produksi nasional melebihi kesempatan kerja penuh akan menyebabkan kenaikan harga yang lebih cepat dan menyebabkan inflasi (sukirno, 2006). jub berpengaruh terhadap inflasi sebagaimana dijelaskan oleh teori kuantitas fisher. dalam teori tersebut, fisher menyatakan inflasi erat kaitanya dengan jub. jika terjadi kenaikan jumlah uang beredar, maka akan menstimulus terjadinya inflasi, dengan asumsi kecepatan jumlah uang beredar dan volume produksi perekonomian bersifat konstan. (m.v=p.t). tanpa adanya kenaikan jumlah uang beredar maka tidak akan terjadi inflasi, meskipun terjadi kenaikan harga. misalnya saja jika terjadi kegagalan panen, harga cenderung naik, namun kenaikan harga beras tersebut hanya sementara waktu saja dan tidak menyebabkan terjadinya inflasi. dengan demikian, bila jumlah uang beredar tidak ditambah lagi, inflasi akan berhenti dengan sendirinya. kondisi tersebut bisa terjadi karena jumlah barang atau jasa yang tersedia di masyarakat lebih kecil dari pada jumlah uang beredar yang ada, sehingga bisa menimbulkan inflasi dan sebaliknya (saputra dan nugroho, 2012). cadangan devisa mempunyai peranan penting dan merupakan indikator untuk menunjukkan kuat lemahnya fundamental perekonomian suatu negara, selain itu dapat menghindari krisis suatu negara dalam ekonomi dan keuangan (priadi dan sekar, 2008). cadangan devisa tidak hanya dapat merangsang ekonomi tetapi juga untuk menstabilkan variabel yang paling rentan seperti nilai tukar, utang dan defisit (commer, 2011). pengambil kebijakan perlu mengetahui faktor-faktor (variabel-variabel) apa saja yang mempengaruhi inflasi agar dapat merumuskan kebijakan yang tepat untuk mengatasinya. berdasarkan latar belakang yang telah diuraikan tersebut di atas, maka pertanyaan penelitian yang hendak dipecahkan dalam studi ini adalah: (1) bagaimana pengaruh produk domestik bruto (pdb) terhadap tingkat inflasi di indonesia periode tahun 2007.1-2013.4?, (2) bagaimana pengaruh perubahan jumlah uang beredar terhadap tingkat inflasi di indonesia periode tahun 2007.1-2013.4?, (3) bagaimana pengaruh nilai tukar mata uang rupiah/usd terhadap tingkat inflasi di indonesia periode tahun 2007.1-2013.4?, (4) bagaimana pengaruh cadangan devisa terhadap tingkat inflasi di indonesia periode tahun 2007.1-2013.4?. metode penelitian jenis dan sumber data wilayah yang dijadikan penelitian adalah negara indonesia. studi ini menganalisis tentang faktor-faktor yang berpengaruh terhadap inflasi di indonesia pada tahun 2007-2013 jenis data dalam studi ini adalah data kuantitatif dan sumber data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder. data sekunder adalah data yang telah dikumpulkan oleh lembaga pengumpul data dan dipublikasikan kepada masyarakat pengguna data. data yang digunakan penulis adalah data sekunder yang merupakan data runtut waktu (time series) dengan periode 20072013 data yang digunakan adalah meliputi data penentu inflasi di indonesia ... (annisa tri utami, daryono soebagiyo) 147 inflasi, produk domestik bruto, jumlah uang beredar, nilai tukar, dan cadangan devisa yang diperoleh dari bank indonesia, badan pusat statistik (bps) kota surakarta, bps propinsi jawa tengah serta instansi-instansi yang terkait dalam studi ini. analisis data studi ini menggunakan metode regresi kuadrat terkecil atau ordinary least square (ols) yaitu teknik mengestimasi suatu garis regresi dengan jalan meminimalkan jumlah dari kuadrat kesalahan setiap observasi terhadap garis tersebut dengan tujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh produk domestik bruto, jumlah uang beredar, nilai tukar, dan cadangan devisa terhadap inflasi di indonesia pada tahun 2007-2013 formulasi dari model regresi dituliskan sebagai berikut: inf = β0 + log β1 pdb + log β2 pdb + log β3 nt + log β4 cd + e 1) keterangan: inf adalah variabel inflasi, pdb adalah variabel produk domestik bruto, jub adalah jumlah uang beredar, nt adalah variabel nilai tukar, cd adalah variabel cadangan devisa, β0 adalah konstanta, β1 adalah koefisien regresi jumlah uang beredar, β2 adalah koefisien regresi produk domestik bruto, β3 adalah koefisien regresi nilai tukar, dan β4 adalah koefisien regresi cadangan devisa. perkembangan inflasi tahun 2007-2013 salah satu indikator perkembangan kondisi ekonomi adalah inflasi. dalam perspektif ekonomi, inflasi merupakan fenomena moneter dalam suatu negara di mana naik turunnya inflasi cenderung mengakibatkan terjadinya gejolak ekonomi karena inflasi berpengaruh terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, neraca perdagangan internasional, nilai utang piutang antar negara, tingkat bunga, tabungan, domestik, pengangguran, dan kesejahteraan masyarakat. perkembangan inflasi di indonesia pada tahun 2007-2013 seperti pada gambar 1 yang menunjukkan fluktuasi yang berubah-ubah. seperti terlihat pada gambar 1, perkembangan inflasi di indonesia sangat tidak stabil dan berfluktuasi. tahun 2007, inflasi di indonesia terbilang tinggi namun masih berada di bawah 10% yaitu sebesar 7,36% . tahun 2008, inflasi mengalami kenaikan menjadi 11,06%. meningkat sebesar 3,7% dari tahun sebelumnya yang dipengaruhi krisis global ekonomi karena kegagalan amerika dalam mengelola usaha properti yang mendorong terjadinya goncangan inflasi di indonesia dan kenaikan beberapa harga barang pokok. tahun 2009, inflasi di indonesia mengalami penurunan di bawah perkiraan pemerintahan di bawah 5% yaitu sebesar 2,78% yang menunjukan perbaikan kondisi perekonomi di indonesia kearah yang lebih stabil. pada tahun 2010 terjadinya krisis ekonomi di eropa yang menyebabkan krisis ekonomi global yang berdampak terhadap indonesia dan negara berkembang lainnya, mengakibatkan kenaikan inflasi yang melampaui target bank sumber: bank indonesia, 2013 gambar 1. perkembangan inflasi di indonesia tahun 2007-2013 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 2, oktober 2013: 144-152 148 indonesia yaitu sebesar 6,96%. tahun 2011 dan 2012 inflasi di indonesia kembali stabil dan aman, di bawah target pemerintah. pada tahun 2011 sebesar 3,79%, di mana target pemerintah sebesar 5,65%. sedangkan di tahun 2012, inflasi mengalami kenaikan yaitu sebesar 4,30% namun masih berada di bawah perkiraan pemerintah yang menargetkan inflasi sebesar 6-7%. tahun 2013, inflasi mengalami kenaikan yang cukup tinggi sebesar 8,38%. perkembangan produk domestik bruto (pdb) tahun 2007-2013 produk domestik bruto (pdb) berpengaruh terhadap inflasi dari sisi tarikan permintaan (demand full inflation). kenaikan permintaan agregat akan menimbulkan celah inflasi atau inflationary gap yang merupakan sumber dari inflasi. perkembangan pdb di indonesia terus meningkat dan stabil setiap tahunnya seperti terlihat pada gambar 2. pdb di indonesia pada tahun 2007 sebesar 1.964.327,3 miliar rupiah. tahun 2008 hingga tahun 2013 pdb di indonesia terus merangkak naik melebihi 2.000.0000 miliar rupiah. tahun 2008 sebesar 2.082.456,1 miliar rupiah. tahun 2009 sebesar 2.177.741,7miliar rupiah. tahun 2010 sebesar 2.310.689,8 miliar rupiah. tahun 2011 sebesar 2.463.242,8 miliar rupiah. tahun 2012 sebesar 2.618.140,8 miliar rupiah. tahun 2013 sebesar 2.770.345 miliar rupiah. perkembangan jumlah uang beredar (jub) tahun 2007-2013 jumlah uang beredar (jub) merupakan salah satu faktor utama pergerakan tingkat inflasi. di indonesia jumlah uang beredar terus meng-alami peningkatan yang stabil setiap tahunnya seperti yang terlihat pada grafik 3. jub di indonesia pada tahun 2007 sebesar 1,649,622 miliar rupiah. tahun 2008 sebesar 1,895,838 miliar rupiah. tahun 2009 hingga tahun 2011 jub di indonesia terus merangkak sumber: bank indonesia, 2013 gambar 3. perkembangan jub di indonesia tahun 2007-2013 sumber: statistik indonesia, 2013 gambar 2. perkembangan pdb di indonesia tahun 2007-2013 penentu inflasi di indonesia ... (annisa tri utami, daryono soebagiyo) 149 naik melebihi 2.000.0000 miliar rupiah. tahun 2009 sebesar 2.141.384 miliar rupiah. tahun 2010 sebesar 2.469.399 miliar rupiah. tahun 2011 sebesar 2.877.220 miliar rupiah. tahun 2012 hingga 2013 perkembangan jub mencapai lebih dari 3.000.000 miliar rupiah. tahun 2012 sebesar 3.205.129 miliar rupiah. tahun 2013 sebesar 3.730.197 miliar rupiah. perkembangan nilai tukar tahun 2007-2013 nilai tukar rupiah terhadap mata uang asing berpengaruh pada inflasi. salah satunya adalah depresiasi nilai tukar rupiah terhadap mata uang asing. nilai tukar yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah nilai tukar rupiah terhadap us dolar amerika. perkembangan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap us dollar amerika terus mengalami fluktuasi, seperti terlihat pada gambar 4. nilai tukar rupiah terhadap us dollar amerika tahun 2003 sebesar 8.465. namun pada tahun 2004 dan 2005 rupiah mengalami depresiasi masing-masing sebesar 9.290 dan 9.830. pada tahun 2006 nilai tukar rupiah terhadap us dolar mengalami penurunan sebesar 9.020. namun pada tahun 2007 dan 2008 kembali mengalami depresiasi. pada tahun 2007 sebesar 9.419 dan pada tahun 2008 sebesar 10.950. nilai tukar rupiah terhadap us dollar amerika di tahun 2009 dan 2010 mengalami penurunan setelah kenaikan yang cukup tnggi di tahun sebelumnya. tahun 2009 sebesar 9.400 dan tahun 2010 sebesar 8.991. pada tahun 2011, 2012, dan 2013 nilai tukar rupiah terhadap us dollar amerika terus mengalami depresiasi. pada tahun 2011 sebesar 9.086 dan tahun 2012 sebesar 9.670. pada tahun 2013 nilai tukar rupiah terhadap us dollar amerika mengalami depresiasi yang tinggi melebihi 10.000 yaitu sebesar 12.189. sumber: bank indonesia, 2013 gambar 4. perkembangan nilai tukar di indonesia tahun 2007-2013 sumber: bank indonesia, 2013 gambar 5. perkembangan cadangan devisa di indonesia tahun 2007-2013 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 2, oktober 2013: 144-152 150 perkembangan cadangan devisa tahun 2003-2013 cadangan devisa mempunyai peranan penting dan merupakan indikator untuk menunjukkan kuat lemahnya fundamental perekonomian suatu negara, selain itu dapat menghindari krisis suatu negara dalam ekonomi dan keuangan (priadi dan sekar, 2008). perkembangan cadangan devisa di indonesia banyak mengalami fluktuasi yang berubahubah setiap tahunnya. pada tahun 2007 sebesar 56,920 juta dolar. namun di tahun 2008 mengalami penurunan sebesar 51,639 juta dolar. perkembangan cadangan devisa pada tahun 2009 hingga 2012 terus mengalami peningkatan yang cukup tinggi hingga mencapai lebih dari 100.000 juta dolar pada tahun 2011 dan 2012. pada tahun 2009 sebesar 66.105 juta dolar dan pada tahun 2010 sebesar 96.206,35 juta dolar. pada tahun 2011 sebesar 110.122,84 juta dolar dan pada tahun 2012 sebesr 112.781,22 juta dolar. namun di tahun 2013 penerimaan cadangan devisa menurun menjadi sebesar 99.386,7 juta dolar. hasil dan pembahasan berdasarkan estimasi yang telah dilakukan didapat model persamaan inflasi dalam studi ini adalah sebagai berikut: inft = -316,1749 + 22,22092 logpdbt – 20,96915 logjubt + 27,00303 logntt + 7,724978 logcdt 2) kesimpulan: prob. signifikansi statistik f sebesar 0,0814 > 0,10, maka h0 diterima. kesimpulannya model yang dipakai eksis. hasil dalam studi ini menunjukkan bahwa nilai rsquared sebesar 0,413309 atau 41,33 persen. artinya variabel independen dalam model (pdb, jub, nilai tukar dan cadangan devisa) mampu menjelaskan variabel dependen (inflasi) sebesar 0,413309 atau 41,33 persen, sedangkan sisanya yaitu sebesar 0,586691 atau 58,67 persen dijelaskan oleh variabel lain yang tidak disertakan dalam model. pengujian asumsi klasik dengan uji normalitas residual hasil regresi menunjukkan bahwa produk domestik bruto (pdb) di indonesia pada periode 2007.1-2013.4 tidak mempengaruhi inflasi. artinya besar kecilnya pdb tidak mempengaruhi inflasi di indonesia pada periode 20072013 hasil studi ini didukung oleh studi putri dan made (2013) yang menyimpulkan bahwa produk domestik bruto tidak berpengaruh signifikan secara parsial terhadap tingkat inflasi di indonesia untuk periode 1993-2012. hasil studi ini sejalan dengan studinya mankiw (2007) yang menyatakan bahwa fluktuasi dalam perekonomian mempengaruhi aggregate demand dan agregate supply baik dalam jangka pendek maupun dalam jangka panjang. fluktuasi dalam perekonomian dapat menurukan dan menaikkan aggregate demand dan juga menurunkan dan menaikkan aggregate supply. terjadinya fluktuasi ekonomi yang mengakibatkan penurunan aggregat supply dalam jangka pendek selanjutnya akan menurunkan keseimbangan dalam perekonomian. tabel 2. uji normalitas residual penentu inflasi di indonesia ... (annisa tri utami, daryono soebagiyo) 151 dipandang dari sisi permintaan adanya peningkatan aggregat demand dalam jangka pendek menghasilkan peningkatan miliar. kondisi tersebut terjadi karena dalam jangka pendek harga bersifat kaku dan perekonomian belum dalam kondisi full-employment sehingga peningkatan aggregat demand tidak menghasilkan inflasi. jumlah uang beredar dan inflasi hasil regresi menunjukkan jumlah uang beredar berpengaruh negatif signifikan terhadap inflasi di indonesia periode 2007-2013 artinya jumlah uang beredar meningkat namun inflasi menurun. jika inflasi meningkat maka jumlah uang beredar menurun. studi ini sejalan dengan nugroho dan basuki (2012) yang menyatakan variabel jumlah uang beredar (m2) berpengaruh secara negatif dan signifikan terhadap inflasi pada kuartal tahun studi. hal ini karena jumlah uang beredar dalam arti luas yang terdiri atas uang beredar, uang giral, dan uang kuasi. diduga persentase uang kuasi yang terdiri atas deposito berjangka, tabungan, dan rekening valas milik swasta domestik cukup besar. uang kuasi dalam hal ini merupakan nilai yang tidak liquid. sehingga walaupun nilainya tinggi namun tidak cukup untuk mempengaruhi peningkatan inflasi yang ada dalam perekonomian. nilai tukar dan inflasi hasil regresi menunjukkan bahwa nilai tukar berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap inflasi di indonesia pada periode 2007-2013 apabila nilai rupiah terhadap us dolar melemah maka inflasi akan naik, dan apabila nilai rupiah terhadap us dolar menguat maka inflasi akan turun. hasil ini sejalan dengan studi saputra dan nugroho (2013) yang menunjukkan bahwa nilai tukar berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap inflasi di indonesia. ketika nilai tukar rupiah mengalami depresiasi maka harga barang impor akan naik yang menyebabkan biaya bahan baku impor meningkat. bertambahnya biaya bahan baku impor menyebabkan hasil produksi menurun. hal ini akan menyebabkan terjadinya kelangkaan barang-barang hasil produksi sehingga bisa menstimulus kenaikan harga barang domestik secara umum sehingga inflasi naik. sedangkan dari sisi penawaran, depresiasi nilai tukar akan menyebabkan harga barang luar negeri relatif lebih tinggi dibandingkan barang dalam negeri. hal ini akan meningkatkan permintaan terhadap barang dalam negeri baik dari permintaan domestik maupun dari permintaan luar negeri terhadap barang ekspor. keadaan ini kemudian memicu kenaikan harga sehingga inflasi akan naik. cadangan devisa dan inflasi cadangan devisa tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap inflasi di indonesia pada periode 2007-2013 artinya besar kecilnya cadangan devisa tidak akan mempengaruhi inflasi. hasil studi ini didukung oleh lin, m. y., dan wang, j. s. (2008) yang menunjukkan hasil bahwa cadangan devisa tidak berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap inflasi di hongkong dan singapura. kesimpulan dari studi tersebut adalah inflasi akan meningkat karena efek nilai tukar lebih kuat dari efek kejutan moneter. tingkat inflasi akan berkurang apabila efek kejutan moneter kuat jika ditempatkan pada stabilitas miliar tidak besar. krušković, b. d., dan maričić, t (2015) akumulasi cadangan devisa tidak mempengaruhi inflasi jika cadangan devisa tidak melebihi tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi. hasil uji koefisien determinan (r2) menunjukkan besarnya nilai r-squared sebesar 0,413309 atau 41,33 persen. artinya variabel independen dalam model (produk domestik bruto, jumlah uang beredar, nilai tukar dan cadangan devisa) mampu menjelaskan variabel dependen (inflasi) sebesar 0,413309 atau 41,33 persen, sedangkan sisanya yaitu sebesar 0,586691 atau 58,67 persen dijelaskan oleh variabel lain yang tidak disertakan dalam model. berdasarkan uji validitas pengaruh (uji t) pada signifikansi (α) sebesar 0,10, produk domestik bruto memliki pengaruh negatif tidak signifikan terhadap inflasi, jumlah uang beredar berpengaruh negatif signifikan terhadap inflasi, nilai tukar berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap inflasi, sedangkan cadangan devisa berpengaruh positif dan tidak signifikan terhadap inflasi di indonesia. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 2, oktober 2013: 144-152 152 simpulan berdasarkan studi yang sudah dibahas pada bab sebelumnya maka dapat disimpulkan sebagai berikut: pertama, produk domestik bruto, jumlah uang beredar, nilai tukar, dan cadangan devisa secara serempak mempengaruhi inflasi di indonesia pada tahun 2007-2013 kedua, hasil regresi menunjukkan jumlah uang beredar berpengaruh negatif signifikan terhadap inflasi di indonesia. ketiga, nilai tukar berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap inflasi di indonesia. keempat, cadangan devisa tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap inflasi di indonesia. adapun saran yang dapat disampaikan berdasarkan hasil studi ini adalah: 1) produk domestik bruto tidak berpengaruh terhadap tingkat inflasi di indonesia pada tahun 20072013 namun pemerintah tetap perlu mendorong pertumbuhan produk domestik bruto melalui pengembangan sektor-sektor ekonomi. pemerintah harus lebih jeli melihat potensi sektor-sektor ekonomi yang dapat dimanfaatkan di tiap-tiap provinsi di indonesia. sehingga melalui pertumbuhan produk domestik bruto dapat diperoleh tingkat inflasi yang stabil dan sesuai dengan tingkat yang telah ditargetkan; 2) pengendalian inflasi melalui kebijakan moneter dapat dicapai dengan pengendalian jumlah uang beredar. peningkatan jumlah uang beredar seharusnya sesuai dengan kebutuhan riil masyarakat dan disesuaikan dengan sasaran inflasi dari bank indonesia. inflasi dapat ditekan dengan tingkat suku bunga yang tinggi sehingga masyarakat lebih cenderung menyimpan uangnya di bank; 3) pemerintah melalui otoritas moneter atau bank indonesia juga harus mampu menjaga kestabilan cadangan devisa negara demi menjaga stabilitas nilai tukar mata uang, mengingat nilai tukar terbukti merupakan salah satu variabel yang berpengaruh terhadap tingkat inflasi. daftar pustaka commer, p. j. (2011). pakistan’s accumulation of foreign exchange reserves during 20012006. journal, 5 (1):47-67. gujarati, damodar, (1995). basic econometric edition. london: mac grawhill.inc. krušković, b. d., & maričić, t. (2015). empirical analysis of the impact of foreign exchange reserves to economic growth in emerging economics. applied economics and finance, 2(1):102-109. lin, m. y., & wang, j. s. (2008). capital outflow and unemployment: evidence from panel data. applied economics letters, 15(14): 1135-1139. mankiw. (1997). teori makro ekonomi. jakarta: erlangga. nugroho, p. w., dan basuki, m. u. (2012). analisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi inflasi di indonesia periode 2000.1–2011.4. disertasi, fakultas ekonomika dan bisnis. priadi, a dan sekar, s. (2008). cadangan devisa, financial deeping, dan stabilisasi nilai tukar riil rupiah akibat gejolak nilai tukar perdagangan. buletin ekonomi moneter dan perbankan, bank indonesia, 11 (2): 121-153 putri dan made. (2013). pengaruh pdb, nilai tukar, dan jumlah uang beredar terhadap inflasi di indonesia periode 1993-2012. ejurnal ekonomi pembangunan universitas udayana 2.7. saputra, k., dan nugroho, s. b. m. (2013). analisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi inflasi di indonesia 2007-2012. disertasi. fakultas ekonomi dan bisnis. solihin. (2011). konvergensi inflasi dan faktorfaktor yang mempengaruhi: studi empiris di negara-negara asean+6. skripsi. bogor. fakultas ekonomi institut pertanian bogor. sukirno, sadono. (1994). pengantar teori makro ekonomi. edisi ii. jakarta: grafindo persada. image (2).jpg image (3).jpg image (4).jpg image (5).jpg image (6).jpg image (7).jpg image (8).jpg image (9).jpg image (10).jpg image (11).jpg image (12).jpg image (13).jpg image (14).jpg image (15).jpg image (16).jpg image (2).jpg image (3).jpg image (4).jpg image (5).jpg image (6).jpg image (7).jpg image (8).jpg image (9).jpg microsoft word 06-agus tri basuki jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 13, nomor 1, april 2012, hlm.53-71   pengembangan kawasan agropolitan agus tri basuki fakultas ekonomi universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta jalan lingkar selatan, tamantirto, kasihan, bantul, yogyakarta e-mail: agustribasuki@yahoo.com abstract: this research aims to define the location that meets the requirements of the national and regional support agropolitan, and make a plan for the development of agropolitan. imogiri is a district that has potential in agriculture, animal husbandry, farming, forestry, and aquaculture. but the development of the present day have led to a gap between urban and rural areas and urban bias. this condition is indicated by the relatively high level of urbanization and the impact on the agricultural sector. therefore we need an alternative strategy for rural development, one of which is through the development agropolitan. in the division of strategic development kasawan agropolitan (ksa) imogiri sub divided into 4 ksa. ksa is a function of institutional develop farmer businesses on/off farm an effective, efficient, and competitive. keywords: agropolitan, rural development, strategy development, competitiveness abstrak: penelitian ini bertujuan menentukan lokasi yang memenuhi persyaratan nasional dan regional yang mendukung agropolitan, dan membuat rencana untuk pengembangan agropolitan. imogiri adalah kabupaten yang memiliki potensi di bidang pertanian, peternakan, pertanian, kehutanan, dan perikanan. tetapi perkembangan hari ini telah menyebabkan kesenjangan antara daerah perkotaan dan pedesaan dan bias perkotaan. kondisi ini ditunjukkan dengan tingkat urbanisasi yang relatif tinggi urbanisasi dan dampak pada sektor pertanian. oleh karena itu diperlukan strategi alternatif untuk pembangunan pedesaan, salah satunya adalah melalui pengembangan agropolitan. ksa adalah fungsi dari kelembagaan yang mengembangkan usahatani on / off farm yang efektif, efisien, dan kompetitif. kata kunci: agropolitan, pembangunan pedesaan, strategi pengembangan, daya saing pendahuluan kesenjangan antara kawasan perkotaan dan perdesaan serta kemiskinan di perdesaan telah mendorong upaya-upaya pembangunan di kawasan perdesaan. meskipun demikian, pendekatan pengembangan kawasan perdesaan seringkali dipisahkan dari kawasan perkotaan. hal ini telah mengakibatkan terjadinya urban bias yaitu pengembangan kawasan perdesaan yang pada awalnya ditujukan untuk meningkatkan kawasan kesejahteraan masyarakat perdesaan justru berakibat sebaliknya yaitu tersedotnya potensi perdesaan ke perkotaan. kenyataan tersebut di atas diperkuat dengan tingginya laju urbanisasi. data survei penduduk (sp) menunjukkan bahwa terjadi peningkatan urbanisasi yang diindikasikan dengan tingginya jumlah penduduk kota di indonesia dari 7,5 persen di tahun 1961 menjadi 30,91 persen di tahun 1990 dan mencapai 42,1 persen di tahun 2000. sedangkan tahu 2009 penduduk yang tinggal di kota menjadi 43 persen. proses urbanisasi yang terjadi seringkali mendesak sektor pertanian ditandai dengan konversi lahan pertanian menjadi kawasan terbangun. konsekuensi logis dari kondisi ini adalah menurunnya produktifitas pertanian. berdasarkan kondisi tersebut, tidak berarti pembangunan perdesaan menjadi tidak penting, akan tetapi harus dicari solusi untuk mengurangi urban bias. pengembangan kawasan agropolitan dapat dijadikan alternatif solusi dalam pengembangan kawasan perdesaan tanpa melupakan kawasan perkotaan. melalui jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 13, nomor 1, april 2012: 53-71 54 pengembangan agropolitan, diharapkan terjadi interaksi yang kuat antara pusat kawasan agropolitan dengan wilayah produksi pertanian dalam sistem kawasan agropolitan. kabupaten bantul yang terletak di dataran kaki gunung merapi mempunyai kawasan potensial untuk pengembangan kawasan pembangunan yang berbasis pada agribisnis. topografi dataran dan iklim yang agak basah memungkinkan untuk dikembangkan berbagai komoditas pertanian, tanaman pangan, holtikultura, peternakan, perikanan, dan perkebunan yang berbasis pada agribisnis. dalam hal ini pengembangan agribisnis dapat dijadikan sebagai jalan menuju percepatan pembangunan pertanian perdesaan. dewasa ini berbagai permasalahan muncul dan memicu terjadinya kerusakan sumber daya alam dan kawasan pengembangan sehingga dikhawatirkan akan berdampak besar bagi kehidupan masyarakat kabupaten bantul. isu pengelolaan sumber daya alam dan kawasan adalah isu global. tumbuhnya kesadaran nasional tentang kondisi kawasan pengembangan yang semakin buruk telah mendesak seluruh wilayah termasuk kabupaten bantul untuk merubah paradigma pembangunannya dari ekonomi-konvensional menjadi ekonomi-ekologis. sebagai langkah awal merespon isu global dan nasional tersebut, maka perlu dilakukan kajian pengembangan kawasan agropolitan di kecamatan imogiri. kecamatan imogiri adalah kecamatan yang memiliki potensi di bidang pertanian, peternakan, perkebunan, kehutanan, dan perikanan budidaya. namun pembangunan yang berlangsung saat ini telah menimbulkan kesenjangan antara kawasan perkotaan dan perdesaan serta urban bias. kondisi tersebut diindikasikan dengan tingkat urbanisasi yang relatif tinggi dan berdampak pada terdesaknya sektor pertanian. oleh karena itu dibutuhkan suatu strategi alternatif untuk pembangunan perdesaan, salah satunya adalah melalui pengembangan kawasan agropolitan. konsep dasar pengembangan kawasan agropolitan adalah sebagai upaya menciptakan pembangunan inter-regional berimbang. artinya adalah untuk meningkatkan keterkaitan pembangunan kota-desa melalui pengembangan kawasan perdesaan yang terintegrasi dalam sistem perkotaan. dalam upaya mengembangkan kawasan agropolitan menyeluruh, terintegrasi, dan berkelanjutan diperlukan pengembangan kawasan agropolitan di kecamatan imogiri kabupaten bantul”. tujuan dari pengembangan agropolitan adalah: (1) jangka panjang: meningkatkan pendapatan dan kesejahteraan masyarakat khususnya petani di kawasan agropolitan. (2) jangka menengah: (a) menumbuhkembangkan kelembagaan usaha petani on/off farm yang efektif, efisien, dan berdaya saing; (b) menumbuhkan iklim usaha yang mendorong perkembangan usaha masyarakat. (3) jangka pendek: (a) menetapkan lokasi yang memenuhi persyaratan sebagai pusat dan wilayah pendukung kawasan agropolitan; (b) membuat perencanaan bagi pengembangan kawasan agropolitan. pembahasan konsep kawasan agropolitan kawasan agropolitan merupakan kawasan yang terdiri atas satu atau lebih pusat kegiatan pada wilayah perdesaan sebagai sistem produksi pertanian dan pengelolaan sumber daya alam tertentu yang ditunjukkan oleh adanya keterkaitan fungsional dan hierarki keruangan satuan sistem permukiman dan sistem agribisnis. program pengembangan kawasan sentra produksi pangan (agropolitan) adalah pembangunan ekonomi berbasis pertanian yang dilaksanakan dengan jalan mensinergikan berbagai potensi yang ada secara utuh dan menyeluruh, berdaya saing, berbasis kerakyatan, berkelanjutan, terdesentralisasi, digerakkan oleh masyarakat, dan difasilitasi oleh pemerintah. kawasan perdesaan harus dikembangkan sebagai satu kesatuan pengembangan wilayah berdasarkan keterkaitan ekonomi antara desa-kota (urbanrural linkages) dan menyeluruh hubungan yang bersifat interdependensi/timbal balik yang dinamis. suatu kawasan sentra produksi pangan (agropolitan) yang sudah berkembang harus memiliki ciri-ciri sebagai berikut: (1) sebagian besar kegiatan masyarakat di kapengembangan kawasan agropolitan (agus tri basuki) 55 wasan tersebut didominasi oleh kegiatan pertanian dan atau agribisnis dalam suatu kesisteman yang utuh dan terintegrasi mulai dari: (a) subsistem agribisnis hulu (up stream agribusiness) yang mencakup: mesin, peralatan pertanian, pupuk, dan lain-lain. (b) subsistem usaha tani/pertanian primer (on farm agribusiness) yang mencakup usaha: tanaman pangan, hortikultura, perkebunan, perikanan, peternakan, dan kehutanan. (c) subsistem agribisnis hilir (down stream agribusiness) yang meliputi: industri-industri pengolahan dan pemasarannya, termasuk perdagangan untuk kegiatan ekspor. (d) subsistem jasa-jasa penunjang (kegiatan yang menyediakan jasa bagi agribisnis) seperti: perkreditan, asuransi, transportasi, penelitian dan pengembangan, pendidikan, penyuluhan, infrastruktur, dan kebijakan pemerintah. (2) adanya keterkaitan antara kota dengan desa (urban-rural linkages) yang bersifat interdependensi/timbal balik dan saling membutuhkan di mana kawasan pertanian di perdesaan mengembangkan usaha budidaya (on farm) dan produk olahan skala rumah tangga (off farm), sementara kota menyediakan fasilitas untuk berkembangnya usaha budidaya dan agribisnis seperti penyediaan sarana pertanian antara lain: modal, teknologi, informasi, peralatan pertanian, dan lain sebagainya. (3) kegiatan sebagian besar masyarakat di kawasan tersebut didominasi oleh kegiatan pertanian atau agribisnis, termasuk didalamnya usaha industri (pengolahan) pertanian, perdagangan hasil-hasil pertanian (termasuk perdagangan untuk kegiatan ekspor), perdagangan agribisnis hulu (sarana pertanian dan permodalan), agrowisata, dan jasa pelayanan. (4) kehidupan masyarakat di kawasan sentra produksi pangan (agropolitan) sama dengan suasana kehidupan di perkotaan karena prasarana dan infrastruktur yang ada di kawasan agropolitan diusahakan tidak jauh berbeda dengan di kota. tujuan agropolitan. tujuan yang hendak dicapai dalam konsep agropolitan khususnya dalam pembangunan perdesaan adalah sebagai berikut: (1) mengubah wilayah perdesaan dengan cara memperkenalkan dan memasukkan kegiatankegiatan non pertanian (industri, perdagangan, dan jasa) yang telah disesuaikan dengan lingkungan perdesaan tersebut sehingga dapat mengurangi arus migrasi desa-kota (soenarno, 2003). (2) menyeimbangkan pendapatan desa dan kota serta memperkecil perbedaan-perbedaan sosial ekonomi dengan cara memperbanyak kesempatan kerja produktif dari paduan sektor pertanian dan non pertanian (lo dan salih, 1981). (3) pemanfaatan tenaga kerja secara tepat guna dengan membuka peluang kerja dan berusaha dari perluasan kegiatan usaha non pertanian dan pembangunan infrastruktur pembangunan. (4) merangkai wilayah perdesaan (agropolitan) dalam jaringan regional dengan peningkatan aksesibilitas wilayah (anonim, 2002). (5) menyalurkan pengetahuan dan kepandaian penduduk setempat pada kegiatan-kegiatan yang sesuai dengan keahliannya. (6) memperbaiki nilai tukar barangbarang antara desa dan kota sehingga tercipta kesesuaian harga yang saling menguntungkan. dalam rangka pengembangan kawasan agropolitan secara terintegrasi perlu disusun pengembangan kawasan agropolitan yang akan menjadi acuan penyusunan program pengembangan. adapun muatan yang terkandung di dalamnya adalah: (1) penetapan pusat agropolitan yang berfungsi sebagai: pusat perdagangan dan transportasi pertanian (agricultural trade/ transport center), penyedia jasa pendukung pertanian (agricultural support services), pasar konsumen produk non-pertanian (non agricultural consumers market), pusat industri pertanian (agro-based industry), penyedia pekerjaan non pertanian (non-agricultural employment), pusat agropolitan dan hinterland-nya terkait dengan sistem permukiman nasional, provinsi, dan kabupaten (rtrw provinsi/ kabupaten). (2) penetapan unit-unit kawasan pengembangan yang berfungsi sebagai: pusat produksi pertanian (agricultural production), intensifikasi pertanian (agricultural intensification), pusat pendapatan perdesaan dan permintaan untuk barang-barang dan jasa non pertanian (rural income and demand for non-agricultural goods and services), produksi tanaman siap jual dan diversifikasi pertanian (cash crop production and agricultural diversification). (3) penetapan sektor unggulan: merupakan 5 s d b m k y d ( in y a s d ( k a p p in a p y la a d a (l g w k d s n 56 sektor unggu didukung ol bisnis yang masyarakat kearifan loka yang memu dengan orien (4) dukunga nfrastruktur yang mend agropolitan d sumber-sumb dan telekomu (5) dukunga kelembagaan an agropolit pemerintah d pusat, peng nsentif dan an agropolita berdasar politan dicir yang tumbu annya sistem agropolitan dan mendoro an pertanian lihat gambar gambar 1. k a teori p whitby (1984 kakan bahwa desaan yang sektor pertan nomian wila ju ulan yang s leh sektor h banyak m yang paling al), dan mem ungkinkan ntasi ekspor. an sistem in r yang mem dukung pen di antaranya ber air, dan unikasi). an sistem ke n pengelola tan yang m daerah deng gembangan disinsentif an. rkan uraian rikan denga uh dan berk m dan usah yang dihara ong kegiatan n (agribisnis) r 1). konsep pen agropolitan pendukung 4) dan fried a dalam pro g utama per nian yang m yah perdesa rnal ekonom sudah berke hilirnya, keg melibatkan p g besar (ses mpunyai ska untuk dik nfrastruktur: mbentuk stru ngembangan a: jaringan ja jaringan uti elembagaan: pengemban merupakan b gan fasilitas sistem ke pengemban di atas, kaw an kawasan kembang ka ha agribisni apkan dapa n-kegiatan p ) di wilayah ngembangan n konsep a dman (1966) oses pemban lu diperhati merupakan ba aan. kemudi mi dan studi mbang dan giatan agripelaku dan uai dengan ala ekonomi kembangkan dukungan uktur ruang n kawasan alan, irigasi, ilitas (listrik dukungan ngan kawasbagian dari pemerintah elembagaan gan kawaswasan agron pertanian arena berjais di pusat at melayani pembangunh sekitarnya n kawasan agropolitan. mengemungunan perikan adalah asis perekoian meneliti pembangun wilayahan perta litan ada sektor d ngunan bangkan jasa pen perdesaa pemban nian da dikemba tersebut kegiatan keterkait kerja bar frie konsep ngunan kan mel ngunann proses p kegiatan ruh wi perdesaa pemasar percobaa yang me usaha te harus di mohser pemban kon sebenarn mulai d pemasar dengan soekarta agribisni yang me rantai pr yang ada luas”. bad agribisni “sebagai nya secar nilai tam menghasi pasar”. waw pengemb nan volume 1 -wilayah po anian. hubu alah bertitik dasar (pertan wilayah. se n industri-in nunjang yang an. hal in gunan berim an industri angkannya di samp n sektor per tan sekaligu ru (todaro, 1 edman (19 agropolitan perdesaan y alui kerangk nya. mohser produksi p n-kegiatan u layah. unt an yang p ran, jalan-j an dan pene enunjang pro ersebut salin ilakukan sec tersebut m gunan agro nsep agrib nya merup ari proses p ran, dan ak kegiatan p awi, 1999) is sebagai: “ eliputi salah roduksi, peng hubunganny dan agribisn is lebih luas pertanian yan ra rasional d mbah komers ilkan barang wasan agrib bangan agr 13, nomor 1, otensial untu ungannya d k tolak dari nian) dalam ebagai tinda dustri pengo g sesuai den ni sesuai d mbang antar (mubyarto, sektor-sekt ping akan rtanian mela us akan mena 1994). 976) meng merupakan yang diperce ka tata ruan r (1969) men pertanian te usaha yang t tuk mencip progresif dip jalan perd elitian, maup oses kegiata ng bergantu cara bersam merupakan p opolitan. bisnis. kon pakan kons produksi, pe ktivitas lain pertanian. menyampai “suatu kesatua satu atau k golahan hasil ya dengan per nis (1995) yaitu: ng organisasi dirancang un sial yang m atau jasa y bisnis menj ibisnis dala april 2012: 5 uk pengemba dengan agro pengemban rangka pem ak lanjut dik olahan dan j ngan lingkun dengan pri ra sektor pe 1993). den or penduk meningkat alui mekani ambah lapan atakan ba n siasat pem epat dan dila g untuk pem ngatakan ba rjadi di da tersebar di s ptakan stru perlukan p desaan, tem pun fasilitas n usaha. us ungan sehin ma-sama. stra prasyarat d nsep agribi ep yang u engolahan h yang berka arsyad (da ikan penger an kegiatan u keseluruhan m l, dan pemas rtanian dalam mendefinis i dan manajem tuk mendapa maksimal den ang diminta adi kunci am pembang 53-71 angopongan mbakemjasangan nsip ertangan kung tkan isme ngan hwa mbaakumbahwa alam seluktur usat mpat lain ahangga ategi dasar isnis utuh hasil, aitan alam rtian usaha mata saran m arti ikan menatkan ngan oleh bagi gunpengembangan kawasan agropolitan (agus tri basuki) 57 an. wawasan1 agribisnis adalah cara pandang terhadap pertanian sebagai lapangan usaha dan lapangan kerja untuk memperoleh nilai tambah yang maksimal secara kompetitif (muta’ali, 2003). dalam meraih nilai tambah tersebut, agribisnis tidak terbatas pada budidaya saja tetapi juga usaha pada penyediaan bahan, sarana, hasil, dan jasa usaha tani, serta pascapanen, pengolahan, penanganan hasil, pemasaran, dan lain-lain. ditinjau dari sudut perilaku, wawasan agribisnis diharapkan dapat menjadi sikap dan motivasi yang sesuai dari subyek pelaku pembangunan daerah khususnya bidang pertanian dalam menanggapi era industrialisasi dan globalisasi serta tuntutan pasar. pengertian agribisnis tidak cukup hanya pada tingkat wawasan, namun juga perlu pemahaman agribisnis sebagai sistem (erickson, 1987). secara konseptual sistem agribisnis dapat diartikan sebagai semua aktivitas mulai dari pengadaan dan penyaluran sarana produksi sampai kepada pemasaran yang terkait satu dengan lain. dengan demikian sistem agribisnis merupakan suatu sistem yang terdiri dari berbagai subsistem yaitu (a) subsistem pengadaan dan penyaluran sarana produksi, teknologi dan pengembangan sumber daya perkebunan, (b) subsistem budidaya atau usaha tani, (c) subsistem pengolahan hasil pertanian atau agroindustri, (d) subsistem pemasaran hasil perkebunan, (e) subsistem prasarana, dan (f) subsistem pembinaan (anonim, 1995). sistem agribisnis tersebut di atas merupakan suatu rangkaian aktivitas yang saling berkaitan yang keberhasilan pengembangannya akan sangat ditentukan oleh tingkat kehandalan dari setiap komponen yang menjadi subsistemnya. oleh karena itu, dibutuhkan dukungan pemerintah melalui regulasi, koordinasi, stimulasi, pelayanan terhadap seluruh subsistem beserta lingkungan yang mempengaruhinya. di samping pemahaman tentang wawasan agribisnis dan agribisnis sebagai suatu sistem, sebagai sebuah “entity” agribisnis juga terkait dengan pelaku agribisnis atau struktur masyarakat, baik yang berdimensi teritorial, fungsional dan profesional, serta regional dan global. secara fungsional pelaku agribisnis atau masya 1 wawasan adalah cara pandang atau perspektif dalam memandang suatu proses kegiatan (misalnya perkebunan) rakat agribisnis dapat dikelompokkan menjadi lima golongan penting yaitu: (1) pemerintah, (2) dunia usaha (swasta), (3) masyarakat tani/pedesaan, (4) masyarakat ilmiah dan teknologi (pakar), dan (5) masyarakat profesi. masing-masing kelompok pelaku agribisnis tersebut memiliki otoritas atau kewenangan untuk mengambil keputusan yang mempengaruhi kehidupan sistem agribisnis. hal yang sangat kritikal bagi kelancaran agribisnis adalah adanya sinkronisasi dan koordinasi dari berbagai golongan masyarakat agribisnis. oleh karena itu, diperlukan adanya kesatuan pengertian wawasan agribisnis. dari uraian di atas analisis tata ruang untuk pembangunan agropolitan men-syaratkan dua bentuk pendekatan yaitu pewilayahan kegiatan usaha dan penentuan pusat-pusat pengembangan. di samping itu perlu dukungan analisis sektor pendukung seperti sektor industri, perdagangan, dan jasa. analisis pengembangan kawasan agropolitan pengembangan kawasan agropolitan kecamatan imogiri selain mendasarkan pada kriteria sebagaimana dijelaskan pada sub bab di atas juga mendasarkan pada beberapa hal, yaitu kondisi fisik dasar, tata guna dan kesesuaian lahan, komoditas unggulan, kesesuaian agribisnis, kependudukan, ekonomi, fungsi kawasan serta sarana dan prasarana. pembahasan secara rinci disajikan pada sub bab berikut ini: (1) analisis kondisi fisik dasar. analisis fisik bertujuan untuk mengetahui kemampuan fisik untuk mengakomodir kegiatan agropolitan. dalam hal ini analisis kondisi fisik ditekankan pada daerah-daerah rawan tanah longsor dan kekeringan serta banjir. kondisi tersebut diperkirakan akan sangat berpengaruh terhadap rencana pengembangan kawasan agropolitan. tanah longsor merupakan bencana yang terjadi akibat proses perpindahan massa tanah atau batuan dengan arah miring dari kedudukan semula, sehingga terpisah dari massa yang mantap, karena pengaruh grafitasi; dengan jenis gerakan bentuk rotasi fan translasi. kawasan rawan bencana longsor adalah kawasan lindung atau kawasan budidaya yang meliputi zona-zona berpotensi longsor. zona jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 13, nomor 1, april 2012: 53-71 58 berpotensi longsor merupakan darah dengan kondisi terrain dan geologi yang sangat peka terhadap gangguan luar, baik bersifat alami maupun aktivitas manusia sebagai faktor pemicu gerakan tanah, sehingga berpotensi longsor. daerah yang terletak di lereng-lereng terjal seperti daerah-daerah yang tersebar di kecamatan imogiri ini, dengan pengolahan tanah yang kurang bijaksana, akan menjadikan daerah yang berpotensi terjadinya tanah longsor terutama pada musim hujan. air hujan akan masuk ke pori-pori antarbutir, dan hal ini akan menaikkan berat massa tanah menjadi jauh lebih berat, sedang dilain pihak air juga akan menurunkan ikatan butir tanah sehingga massa tanah mudah bergerak/longsor. sedangkan daerah yang terletak diperbukitan secara umum adalah daerah yang dapat dikatakan sebagai kawasan rawan kekeringan. wilayah-wilayah tersebut terletak di daerah perbukitan yang memanjang dari selatan ke utara di bagian timur kabupaten bantul termasuk kecamatan imogiri. selain itu di kecamatan imogiri juga termasuk daerah yang mempunyai lahan kritis yang cukup tinggi, mencapai 150 ha atau 8,92 persen dari luas lahan kritis di kabupaten bantul. faktor utama penyebab lahan kritis tersebut karena pengelolaan tanah yang tidak mengindahkan kaidah konservasi tanah dan air, lahan kritis juga dapat disebabkan oleh makin meningkatnya tekanan penduduk terhadap lahan akibat pertambahan jumlah penduduk yang tinggi. upaya rehabilitasi lahan kritis di antaranya dapat dilakukan dengan kegiatan reboisasi dan atau penghujauan. dengan demikian dalam rangka pengembangan kawasan agropolitan imogiri, perlu direncanakan penataan, pengembangan, pemeliharaan dan pengendalian kawasan (kondisi fisik) untuk meminimalisasi dampak yang diakibatkan dari kekeringan, tanah longsor dan lahan kritis. (lihat gambar 2 dalam lampiran) (2) tata guna dan kesesuaian lahan. sumber daya lahan merupakan potensi ruang yang mengandung unsur-unsur lingkungan fisik, kimia dan biologis yang saling berinteraksi terhadap potensi tata guna lahan. lahan merupakan perpaduan dari berbagai unsur atau komponen bentang lahan, geologis, tanah, hidrologis, iklim, dan alokasi penggunaannya. arahan kebijaksanaan pengembangan kawasan ini meliputi; penetapan sebagai kawasan lindung, pengembalian fungsi hidrologis kawasan hutan yang telah mengalami kerusakan, pemantauan terhadap kegiatan yang diperbolehkan di dalam kawasan lindung untuk menjaga fungsi lindung kawasan, pengurangan kepadatan penduduk dan peningkatan pengetahuan untuk mengembangkan sumber daya alternatif, pengembangan kegiatan ekonomi terbatas untuk pengembangan sumber daya alternatif sepanjang tidak mengganggu fungsi lindung dalam kaitannya dengan penyusunan pengembangan kawasan agropolitan, kondisi lahan eksisting di kecamatan imogiri dapat menggambarkan kemampuan lahannya. dalam kajian ini kemampuan lahan merupakan fungsi dari 5 komponen utama, yaitu kemiringan lereng, kedalaman dan keefektifan tanah, drainase dan erosi. secara rinci setiap unsur disajikan pada tabel 1.erdasarkan data yang tersaji pada tabel 1 dalam lampiran diketahui bahwa kondisi geologis wilayah perencanaan didominasi oleh struktur batuan kerakal, kerikil, lanau dan lempung. dari segi morfologi, wilayah perencanaan termasuk dalam satuan bentuk lahan dataran gunung merapi dengan kemiringan antara 0-7 persen. sistem hidrologi di wilayah perencanaan terpengaruh oleh keberadaan sungai opak dan sungai oyo. karena morfologinya yang dataran, maka pergerakan aliran airnya cenderung melebar membentuk meandering dan berpola radial sentripetal dengan kedalaman efektif tanah antara 60-90 cm. implikasinya jenis vegetasi atau tanaman yang dapat berkembang dengan baik di wilayah dengan karakteristik fisik tersebut adalah jenis tanaman pangan seperti padi, jagung dan kacang tanah, kemudian tanaman jambu mete, tebu dan kelapa. (3) analisis komoditas unggulan. analisis tata guna lahan dapat ditinjau dari segi penggunaan lahan pertanian eksisting berikut komoditas yang dihasilkan. berbagai macam komoditas yang diajukan atas dasar kesesuaian lahan dengan pembatasan tertentu sebagaimana dijelaskan sebelumnya dapat diarahkan beberapa komoditas unggulan, baik yang mempupengembangan kawasan agropolitan (agus tri basuki) 59 nyai keunggulan komparatif maupun yang mempunyai keunggulan kompetitif beberapa komoditas lain yang nampaknya prospektif untuk dikembangkan mengingat pangsa pasar dan nilai ekonomi namun menghadapi banyak kendala dalam pengembangannya maka perlu dipertimbangkan kembali. di sisi lain mungkin komoditas empon-empon (kunyit, temulawak, temu ireng, dan jahe) merupakan beberapa komoditas utama yang besar untuk dikembangkan di kawasan pengembangan agropolitan. hal ini di karenakan ada beberapa wilayah yang sudah melakukan pengembangan komoditas tersebut sampai kepengolahan. di desa wukirsari, kebonagung, dan karangtengah sudah dikembangkan pengolahan sirup temulawak, dan bahkan komoditas jahe merupakan bahan baku utama untuk minuman khas imogiri yaitu wedang uwuh yang terkenal khasiatnya, untuk kesegaran dan kehangatan tubuh. selain komoditas empon-empon tersebut, komoditas tanaman padi yang merupakan komoditas utama untuk dikembangkan di kawasan agropolitan tersebut. komoditas padi tersebar hampir di seluruh desa di kecamatan imogiri, di beberapa desa tersebut sudah dikembangkan jenis padi organik dan sudah terkenal di luas kabupaten bantul. desa kebonagung dan desa karangtengah merupakan salah satu desa yang sudah mengembangkan jenis padi organik dengan luasan cukup banyak. sedangkan untuk komoditas buah-buahan, di kecamatan imogiri secara umum merupakan ponsial untuk dapat dikembangkan. terlepas dari itu seperti tanaman mete banyak dijumpai di beberapa desa di imogiri, seperti desa wukirsari dan desa karangtengah. di kedua desa tersebut sudah dilakukan pengolahan sampai pada bentuk kering untuk diambil bijinya, selain itu buah mete juga diolah menjadi sirup, ampasnya sebagai abon maupun bahan sayur. perkebunan mete di desa wukirsari luasnya kurang lebih 50 hektar akan tetapi yang sampai saat ini masih produktif ada sekitar 30 hektar dan tersebar di beberapa dusun. di wukirsari juga terdapat tempat pengolahan meta di dusun dengkeng yang disebut ”rumah mete” yang berfungsi sebagai tempat pengolahan dan pembelajaran tentang mete secara keseluruhan. di desa karangtengah terdapat perkebunan mete ”pariwisata agro” sejak tahun 2005 kerjasama dengan royal silk milik gusti pembayun dimana merupakan perkebunan mete yang dikembangkan untuk pengembangan ulat sutra liar. selain itu kerjasama bidang kehutanan dengan komoditas mete antara pemerintah setempat dengan garuda indonesia dengan nama ”garuda indonesia forest”. sistem budidaya yang dilakukan adalah mempekerjakan masyarakat sekitar untuk mengelola perkebunan tersebut. berdasarkan analisis di atas terlihat ada tiga tipologi komoditas pengembangan di wilayah imogiri, yaitu komoditas unggulan, komoditas andalan dan komoditas potensial. berkaitan dengan rencana pengembangan kawasan agropolitan, komoditas yang memiliki peluang paling baik untuk dikembangkan adalah tanaman mete, padi dan empon-empon. untuk jenis komoditas andalan markisa dan pisang dapat juga dikembangkan di kawasan agropolitan. namun demikian komoditas tersebut saat ini baru dapat diandalkan di tingkat lokal dan belum memiliki kekuatan untuk bersaing dengan komoditas lainnya pada skala yang lebih luas. pada sektor lain, komoditas kacang tanah dan sayuran yang termasuk dalam komoditas potensial, merupakan jenis komoditas yang harus diprioritaskan pengembangannya. hal ini disebabkan karena komoditas tersebut dinilai memiliki potensi yang cukup besar dalam rangka peningkatan perekonomian lokal dan daerah. (4) analisis kesesuaian agribisnis. analisis kesesuaian agribisnis disini ditinjau dari jaringan pemasaran komoditas yang diunggulkan (potensial). secara umum komoditas unggulan tanaman mete terdapat di desa yaitu desa wukirsari dan karangtengah, untuk komoditas padi atau padi organik di desa kebonagung dan karangtengah, untuk komoditas emponempon (kunyit, temulawak, temu ireng, dan jahe) di desa wukirsari, kebonagung, dan karangtengah. pemasaran komoditas unggulan di beberapa desa tersebut yang menjadi daerah penelitian modelnya bervariasi. setidaknya ada jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 13, nomor 1, april 2012: 53-71 60 empat cara pemasaran masing-masing komoditas tersebut diatas. pertama, komoditas dari petani langsung dijual ke konsumen. cara ini dapat ditemui di desa-desa penghasil komoditas. bahkan beberapa petani mengaku seringkali mendapat pesanan dari tetangga maupun kolega sebelum musim panen. dapat dijumpai pula petani yang menjual sendiri komoditas yang dihasilkan di gubug-gubug di pinggir jalan. kedua, dari petani dijual ke pedagang pengecer yang ada di pasar, dan dari pengecer kepada konsumen. ketiga, komoditas dari petani dijual ke pedagang pengepul yang ada di masing-masing desa selanjutnya dari pedagang pengepul dijual ke pedagang penngecer yang ada di luar daerah, yang kemudian menjualnya ke konsumen setempat. keempat, petani menjual komoditas ke pengusaha olahan, dimana hasil olahan tersebut dijual ke supermarket atau bahkan diekspor ke luar negeri. secara ringkas pemasaran beberapa komoditas di wilayah kajian dapat disajikan dalam tabel 2. (5) analisis penerapan teknologi. sebagian besar usaha budidaya petani di kecamatan imogiri meliputi; pertanian tanaman pangan, tanaman hortikultura, tanaman perkebunan, tanaman kehutanan, usaha peternakan, usaha perikanan dan penangkapan di perairan umum. usaha tani tersebut secara umum sudah melakukan penerapan teknologi yang sederhana dari mulai pembenihan, sistem budidaya sampai dengan penanganan pascapanen. tabel 3 menunjukkan penerapan teknologi pertanian di kecamatan imogiri. penerapan budidaya pertanian dan perkebunan di kecamatan imogiri untuk komoditas padi, cabe, dan tebu sudah menerapkan teknologi rata-rata lebih dari 70 persen, hal tersebut dipengaruhi karena kedua komoditas tersebut memerlukan perawatan yang intensif. di satu sisi penerapan teknologi untuk komoditas padi lebih banyak ada pengolahan tanah, sistem pengairan dan pemupukan, karena karakteristik tanaman padi yang cenderung banyak memerlukan pemupukan dan pengairan yang cukup. pengairan untuk tanaman padi lebih menerapkan pada pengairan menggunakan tabel 2. jaringan pemasaran komoditas unggulan wilayah perencanaan no komoditas petani pedagang1 pedagang 2 pedagang 3 1 mete wukirsari karangtengah wukirsari, karangtengah bantul, piyungan, pundong, dlingo, yogyakarta. jakarta surabaya sumatera, kalimantan, 2 padi karangtengah kebonagung karangtengah kebonagung bantul, yogyakarta, sleman, gunungkidul. jakarta, surabaya, semarang, 3 empon-empon wukirsari, kebonagung, karangtengah wukirsari, kebonagung, karangtengah yogyakarta, bantul, jakarta, surakarta, surabaya, sumber : hasil analisis, 2011 tabel 3. tingkat penerapan teknologi pertanian dan perkebunan kecamatan imogiri tahun 2010 no komoditas benih (%) p. tanah (%) pupuk (%) pengairan (%) p h t (%) panen (%) pasca (%) 1 padi 85 95 90 90 75 85 60 2 kedelai 60 70 20 85 75 70 35 3 jagung 55 80 20 70 70 75 40 4 kcg. tanah 60 80 20 65 70 70 40 5 cabe 75 75 80 80 80 85 80 6 kelapa 75 50 50 60 40 65 80 7 tebu 90 85 90 90 90 85 90 8 tembakau 80 80 75 80 70 85 85 sumber: bpp kecamatan imogiri tahun 2011 pengembangan kawasan agropolitan (agus tri basuki) 61 aliran irigasi dari sungai-sungai yang ada di sekitar kawasan tersebut. lain halnya dengan penerapan teknologi pada komoditas cabe selain penerapan teknologi pada sistem budidaya pemupukan, pengairan dan pengendalian hama terpadu, juga lebih banyak penerapan teknologi untuk panen dan pascapanen. petani di kecamatan imogiri untuk penerapan teknologi pada panen maupun pascapanen lebih pada proses pemetikan dan penanganan pascapanen yang harus segera dijual karena cabe lebih cepat membusuk. sedangkan untuk penerapan teknologi komoditas perkebunan tebu penerapannya lebih panan saat panen maupun pasca panen, penerapan saat panen dengan cara manual dan membutuhkan banyak tenaga kerja dan pengangkutan menuju pabrik tebu untuk dilakukan pengolahan menjadi gula. sehingga penerapan pascapanen ini yang membutuhkan teknologi mesin untuk menjadi sebuah produk yang mempunyai nilai jual lebih tinggi (lihat tabel 4). penerapan teknologi peternakan pada umumnya sudah lebih dari 60 persen pada masing-masing kegiatan dari mulai pembiakan sampai dengan pemasaran, akan tetapi pada sistem pemasaran untuk jenis kambing, ayam buras dan itik sudah sampai 100 persen, hal ini pemasaran yang diterapkan hanya pada sampai penjualan yang dilakukan di wilayah kecamatan imogiri. penerapan pemasaran di kecamatan imogiri sudah terdapat pasar ternak yang sudah ada cukup lama, sehingga memudahkan peternak melakukan transaksi jual beli ternak (lihat tabel 5). pada dasarnya penerapan teknologi perikanan baik pembesaran maupun pembenihan di kecamatan imogiri masih terkendala pada pakan dan pengolahan serta diversifikasinya, sedangkan untuk konstruksi kolam yang dipakai sudah jauh lebih baik. penerapan teknologi baik pertanian, perkebunan, peternakan dan perikanan pada berbagai sistem yang diterapkan, kedepan diharapkan agar lebih dapat dilakukan penarapan secara merata, baik sistem yang digunakan ataupun merapa secara cakupan wilayahnya. di wilayah desa imogiri diharapkan nantinya sebagai sektor pemasaran produk-produk kawasan agropolitan tersebut, karena di desa imogiri ini terdapat berbagai macam infrastruktur pendukung seperti; pasar umum, pasar hewan, terminal, ruko produk agropolitan, bank dan masih banyak infrastruktur pendukung lainnya. (6) analisis kependudukan. sumber daya manusia memiliki peranan yang sangat penting dalam proses pembangunan kawasan agropolitan di kecamatan imogiri baik sebagai obyek pembangunan maupun sebagai subyek atau pelaku pembangunan. kondisi sumber daya manusia akan menentukan corak dan pola kehidupan masyarakat, sehingga upaya pengamatan karakteristik sumberdaya manusia diperlukan untuk menghindari adanya dampak negatif dari perkembangan penduduk yang tidak terkendali dan pola penyebaran yang tidak merata. inventarisasi data sumber daya manusia diharapkan mampu memberikan informasi yang sistematis dan terstruktur tabel 4. tingkat penerapan teknologi peternakan di kecamatan imogiri tahun 2010 no komoditas pemulia biakan (%) perkan dangan (%) pakan (%) reproduksi (%) pasca (%) pemasaran (%) 1 sapi potong 80 65 70 80 80 90 2 kambing 65 70 70 80 80 100 3 ayam buras 60 70 65 70 80 100 4 itik 65 65 70 80 80 100 sumber: bpp kecamatan imogiri tahun 2011 tabel 5. tingkat penerapan teknologi perikanan di kecamatan imogiri tahun 2010 no komoditas konstruksi (%) induk (%) benih (%) padat tebar (%) pakan (%) pengolahan difersifikasi (%) pasca (%) 1 pembesaran 85 60 60 40 40 70 2 pembenihan 80 50 60 40 40 65 sumber: bpp kecamatan imogiri tahun 2011 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 13, nomor 1, april 2012: 53-71 62 mengenai potensi untuk menunjang pengembangan kawasan agropolitan. perhitungan pertumbuhan penduduk wilayah imogiri yang terjadi secara ganda dilakukan dengan mendasarkan pada data registrasi penduduk tahun 2009. dalam periode tersebut diketahui laju pertumbuhan penduduk di daerah kajian mencapai 0,1 persen dengan mengabaikan faktor in migration dan out migration. dengan kondisi demikian, diperkirakan jumlah penduduk imogiri akan mengalami peningkatan secara signifikan dari 61.667 jiwa di tahun 2009 menjadi 64.790 jiwa di tahun 2016. (7) analisis fungsi-fungsi kawasan. berdasarkan kondisi fisik dan posisinya terhadap cakupan wilayah yang lebih luas (kabupaten dan provinsi), wilayah kecamatan imogiri dibedakan atas ruang-ruang yang berfungsi sebagai kawasan lindung (lindung setempat) dan kawasan budidaya (rt rw kabupaten bantul). kawasan lindung adalah bagian wilayah yang dialokasikan untuk fungsi perlindungan terhadap daerah bawahan, daerah setempat, suaka alam dan cagar budaya serta daerah rawan bencana seperti diamanatkan dalam kepres nomor 32 tahun 1987. menurut undang-undang nomor 26 tahun 2007 tentang penataan ruang disebutkan bahwa berdasarkan fungsi kawasan dibagi menjadi 2 yaitu kawasan lindung dan kawasan budidaya. kawasan budidaya adalah bagian wilayah yang dialokasikan untuk mewadahi fungsi pertanian umum, perdagangan, pariwisata, dan permukiman. pada konstelasi tingkat kabupaten, kotakota di wilayah kabupaten bantul dibedakan atas kota hirarki i, ii, dan iii. kota imogiri sebagai lokasi kajian penyusunan pengembangan kawasan agropolitan berada pada hirarki ii dengan jangkauan pelayanan di tingkat lokal. fungsi utamanya adalah ii merupakan ibukota kecamatan dengan skala pelayanan sub regional. berkaitan dengan pengembangan kawasan agropolitan di kota imogiri, dapat dibedakan menjadi kawasan pertanian dan non pertanian. di kawasan pertanian fungsi utama adalah fungsi produksi, baik untuk komoditas pangan sebagai pendukung ketahanan pangan dan komoditas non pangan yang berpeluang untuk dikembangkan dalam pola agribisnis, baik buah-buahan, sayur-sayuran, ternak, ikan dan jenis-jenis lainnya. di samping fungsi produksi, di kawasan pertanian juga harus diperhatikan fungsi konservasi kesuburan lahan dan menekan terjadinya perubahan fungsi meliputi fungsi permukiman. pada kawasan non pertanian, fungsi yang ada sebagai kawasan permukiman dan kawasan lindung serta fungsi fasilitas umum. fungsi sebagai kawasan lindung dalam arti luas lebih dominan dan merupakan prioritas utama, agar fungsi pendukung aktivitas di kawasan pertanian tetap dipertahankan. untuk mendukung usaha tani, faktor ketersediaan air adalah mutlak sehingga di samping pengembangan dan peningkatan produksi pertanian di kawasan pengembangan agropolitan, juga perlu diperhatikan aspek konservasi sumber daya alam khususnya air dan lahan agar tidak terjadi kemiskinan lahan yang berkelanjutan. selain analisis komoditas potensial yang dapat dikembangkan di kecamatan imogiri, analisis perkembangan usaha mikro kecil dan menengah merupakan fungsi-fungsi kawasan dilakukan untuk mendapatkan gambaran sejauh mana umkm tersebut dapat mendukung perkebangan tumbuhnya kawasan agrotabel 6. jumlah dan pertumbuhan penduduk serta kepadatan agraris ` luas lahan pertanian (ha) pertumbuhan penduduk (%) kepadatan agraris 2009 2016 selopamioro 13074,5 0,81 1,08 15,818 14,722 sriharjo 631,95 0,56 15,68 9,912 10,238 kebonagung 187,11 0,45 18,09 3,385 3,475 karangtengah 287,77 0,89 17,99 5,177 5,447 girirejo 413,49 0,71 11,35 4,693 4,889 karangtalun 120,5 0,80 24,65 2,852 3,110 imogiri 83,56 1,59 47,88 4,000 4,365 wukirsari 1538,45 0,87 10,22 15,730 16,528 sumber : bps dan hasil analisis, 2011 pengembangan kawasan agropolitan (agus tri basuki) 63 politan di kawasan tersebut. perkembangan usaha mikro, kecil, dan menengah di kecamatan imogiri sudah berkembang di beberapa desa, ada beberapa usaha kecil dan menengah pengolahan kripik dan rempeyek, sirup markisa, abon mete sudah berkembang di desa karangtengah dengan bahan baku dari wilayah tersebut. pengembangan pembuatan sirup markisa bekerjasama antara pihak akademisi, pemerintah daerah kabupaten bantul dan kelompok tani setempat. usaha mikro, kecil, dan menengah pembuatan tempe dengan berbahan baku kedelai terdapat di desa karangtalun dengan sistem jaringan pemasaran sampai keluar wilayah imogiri. selain dikenal sebagai sentra produksi berbasis bahan baku pertanian tersebut, di kecamatan imogiri juga berkembang usahausaha pengolahan industri dan kerajinan kerajinan batik, kerajinan tatah sungging, kerajinan wayang, serta kerajinan keris. sentral pengembangan batik tulis dengan pewarna alami dari tanaman indigovera terdapat di desa wukirsari, desa karangtengah dan desa girirejo yang sudah terkenal di wilayah luar imogiri. fungsi pengembangan kawasan pariwisata sebagai pendukung pengembangan kawasan agropolitan di imogiri tersebar di beberapa desa. pengembangan wisata di kecamatan imogiri terbagi atas kawasan wisata religi, kawasan wisata alam dan kawasan wisata agro. kawasan wisata religi terdapat di desa wukirsari dan girirejo, antara lain makam seniman, makam kesultanan raja-raja mataram, pasareyan agung giriloyo dan makan pangeran pekik di desa girirejo. wisata alam yang sedang berkembang yakni jembatan gantung dimana letaknya berada di perbatasan desa sriharjo dan desa selopamioro, wisata alam bernuansa air berada di sepanjang kali opak desa wukirsari, wisata air bendung tegal yang terletak di desa kebonagung dengan berbagai macam atraksi yang menarik, wisata alam gua cerme yang terletak di desa selopamioro perbatasan dengan kabupaten gunungkidul. kawasan wisata agro antara lain di desa karangtengah dengan komoditas perkebunan mete dan kawasan wisata agro di desa kebonagung dengan keunikan dan pengetahuan tentang budidaya pertanian di perdesaan, di kawasan agro kebonagung tersebut para pengunjung dapat belajar budidaya pertanian dari proses pembajakan sawah, penanaman sampai dengan pemanenan. uniknya para pengunjung dapat langsung terjun di lokasi tersebut. (8) analisis ekonomi. untuk memberikan penilaian viabilitas ekonomi berbagai komoditas yang dianggap signifikan untuk dikembangkan di kawasan agropolitan berikut dibuat suatu analisis yang merangking perkiraan prospek pengembangan komoditas-komoditas tersebut. kriteria yang ditimbang meliputi tradisi produksi setiap komoditas, keterkaitan sistemik komoditas dalam spektrum produksi yang lebih luas, keterkaitan antarwilayah yang diciptakan, skala produksi di tingkat produsen atau petani serta kemampuan relatif komoditas untuk menyerap tenaga kerja. selanjutnya turut diperhitungkan juga sifat-sifat komoditas seperti durabilitas komoditas, ketersediaan pasar sebagai penyerap komoditas, sifat-sifat pasar yang ada dan kompetitor keunikan komoditas. dimensi lain yang juga sangat penting dan perlu dipertimbangkan dalam memilih komoditas budidaya di kawasan agropolitan adalah kemampuan komoditas dalam mendukung cash flow harian petani serta ada tidaknya ketergantungan terhadap input produksi langka yang hanya tersedia di daerah lain. selain itu mengingat kerapatan dan tingginya ragam jenis-jenis komoditas yang dapat diusahakan di kawasan ini perlu juga dipertimbangkan aspek penggunaan tanah, air dan kesesuaian agroekologis. penilaian terhadap sifat-sifat komoditas dilakukan dengan pemberian bobot secara relatif dan nominal (baik diberi tanda ’+’, sedangkan tidak baik diberi tanda ’-’ ). secara rinci penjelasan setiap kriteria diberikan sebagai berikut: (a) tradisi produksi. keberhasilan budidaya pertanian salah satunya ditentukan oleh kemampuan para petani sebagai pelaku usaha tani menjalankan kegiatannya. tradisi produksi yang sudah panjang mencerminkan stabilitas sistem produksi yang sudah teruji oleh fluktuasi musim dan ketidakpastian yang lain. komoditas-komoditas yang sudah lama dikenal jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 13, nomor 1, april 2012: 53-71 64 dan dibudidayakan oleh petani dianggap bernilai tinggi dari tradisi produksinya. (b) keterkaitan produksi. ketekaitan produksi dipandang penting sebagai salah satu kriteria untuk penentuan unggul tidaknya suatu komoditas dikembangkan di kawasan agropolitan. komoditas yang dalam proses budidayanya memiliki keterkaitan secara sistemik dengan sektor ekonomi lain ke depan maupun ke belakang dinilai positif, sedangkan komoditas yang memiliki keterkaitan secara sistemik dengan sektor ekonomi lain secara lemah akan diberi nilai negatif. (c) keterkaitan regional. melalui kegiatan perdagangan terjadi pertukaran dan distribusi berbagai komoditas pertanian antardaerah. daerah-daerah dengan nilai dan skala produksi yang cukup besar akan mampu memainkan peranannya sebagai eksportir atau pemasok berbagai kebutuhan komoditas tersebut di daerah lain. dengan demikian semakin jauh jangkauan keterkaitan pemasaran dengan daerah lain akan memberikan nilai lebih pada keterkaitan regional yang positif. (d) skala produksi. kelangsungan hidup pengembangan komoditas pertanian yang berorientasi komersial sangat ditentukan oleh skala produksi yang diterapkan oleh para petani. skala produksi yang cukup besar akan diberi nilai positif, karena dengan skala produksi yang besar petani akan memiliki keunggulan kompetitif dibandingkan usaha lain yang sejenis yang berlokasi di tempat yang sama. skala usaha yang besar akan memberikan peluang pengembangan usaha terutama yang padat modal dan investasi. (e) serapan tenaga kerja. salah satu aspek penting yang memperoleh penekanan dalam pengembangan kawasan agropolitan adalah penyerapan tenaga kerja. semakin tinggi kemampuan komoditas dalam memberikan kesempatan kerja dalam proses budidaya dan pengolahannya perlu dinilai positif, sehingga komoditas-komoditas yang bernilai tinggi adalah komoditas-komoditas yang mampu memberikan kesempatan kerja dalam jumlah yang cukup besar dan kontinyu. (e) durabilitas komoditas. posisi tawar-menawar petani terhadap pedagang maupun konsumen seringkali sangat terbatas, karena sifat-sifat komoditas pertanian itu sendiri yang cepat rusak oleh waktu dan tidak tahan lama untuk disimpan dalam rangka memperoleh harga jual yang lebih tinggi di luar musim panen. oleh karena itu untuk mendudukkan posisi tawarmenawar produsen yang lebih baik akan dapat lebih mudah dicapai jika komoditas yang diproduksi adalah komoditas yang tahan lama atau dapat dibuat tahan lama dengan cara-cara yang sederhana dan dapat dilakukan sendiri oleh petani tanpa tambahan biaya. (f) ketersediaan pasar lokal. pasar dalam pengertian ini adalah daya beli masyarakat di sekitar pusat produksi secara keseluruhan yang dapat tercermin dari besar kecilnya jumlah penduduk kota terdekat dan atau daya beli masyarakatnya terhadap komoditas pertanian tertentu. dalam hubungan ini kawasan agropolitan imogiri memiliki keunggulan kompetitif, karena lokasinya yang relatif dekat dengan kota bantul dan yogyakarta, sehingga pemasaran ke kota ini akan mencerminkan seberapa mudah pasar regional dapat dijangkau. nilai positif diberikan pada komoditas yang memiliki akses ke pasar dengan mudah. (8) sifat pasar. sifat-sifat pasar berbagai komoditas pertanian yang diproduksi di kawasan agropolitan dinilai keragamannya sifatnya monopsonis atau monopolistis. komoditas yang harus memasuki pasar yang monopsonis akan diberikan penilaian negatif, karena produsen yang banyak hanya tergantung pembeli yang dalam jumlah yang sedikit akan cenderung merugikan produsen; sedangkan komoditas yang harus memasuki pasar yang monopolistis cenderung dinilai positif karena produsen dapat berperan lebih banyak dalam menentukan harga. (g) kompetitor keunikan. suatu komoditas yang unik dan tidak dijumpai di tempat lain akan memiliki nilai positif karena produsen akan mampu mempengaruhi pasar, sehingga produsen akan memperoleh banyak keuntungan dari harga yang dapat terpelihara tinggi. sebaliknya untuk komoditas yang sudah tersedia dimana-mana atau sudah ada barangbarang substitusinya perlu diberikan nilai negatif. (h) cash flow harian. suatu komoditas diusahakan oleh petani di antaranya untuk sumber pengembangan kawasan agropolitan (agus tri basuki) 65 pendapatan harian, sehingga cash flow yang akan diberikan secara harian dalam konteks petani kecil seringkali sangat menentukan keberhasilan pengembangan komoditas tersebut. makin sering suatu komoditas yang dibudidayakan mampu menghasilkan cash flow akan sangat positif bagi petani pelaku usaha itu. dalam komunitas petani kecil kestabilan pasokan cash merupakan satu hal terpenting untuk bertahan hidup, daripada memperoleh cash dalam jumlah yang lebih besar tetapi hanya satu atau dua tahun sekali. logika petani semacam ini dinilai positif. (i) kebutuhan air. kawasan agropolitan imogiri secara obyektif merupakan ruang produksi yang menjadi pusat perhatian banyak pelaku usaha, karena keunggulan komparatif sumber daya alam dan lingkungannya. semakin banyak interest yang memanfaatkan sumber daya alam dalam proses produksi primer, akan berarti ada kompetisi dalam penggunaan air untuk budidaya pertanian, non pertanian maupun kebutuhan domestik. dengan demikian yang diberi nilai positif adalah tanamantanaman atau hewan yang menggunakan sedikit air dalam proses budidayanya. (j) kebutuhan lahan. selain telah mengalami berbagai konflik pemanfaatan air untuk berbagai kebutuhan produksi ataupun domestik, konflik penggunaan lahan antarjenis komoditas pertanian juga sudah terjadi. demikian juga konflik penggunaan lahan antara kepentingan produksi primer dengan perumahan maupun pariwisata juga ditengarai akan semakin menguat. pilihan komoditas hendaknya diarahkan pada hewan atau tanaman yang hemat ruang, sehingga dengan ruang yang sama akan diperoleh nilai produksi yang lebih tinggi. oleh karena itu komoditas dengan kebutuhan lahan yang kecil akan dinilai positif. (k) keunggulan agroekologi. keunggulan agroekologi perlu diperhatikan dalam konteks hubungannya dengan adanya kecenderungan untuk menempatkan berbagai jenis komoditas yang berhasil di tempat lain untuk dicoba di kawasan ini. kawasan agropolitan imogiri memiliki keunggulan agroekologi bagi beberapa jenis komoditas tertentu sebagaimana tercermin dari analisis kesesuaian lahannya. komoditas dengan kesesuaian lahan yang tinggi akan dinilai positif dan dianggap sesuai dengan kondisi agroekologi kawasan ini. (l) ketergantungan input langka dan esensial dari luar. input esensial yang dimaksud dalam analisis ini adalah semua materi yang diperlukan dan harus ada dalam proses produksi. jenis-jenis komoditas yang memiliki ketergantungan tinggi terhadap material input dari tempat lain akan diberi nilai negatif, karena berarti proses produksinya tidak aman. dengan demikian sewaktu-waktu dapat terjadi kemacetan dalam produksi, sehingga sistem produksinya sangat tidak stabil. terlebih jika input langka tersebut harus berebut dengan penggunaan di tempat lain untuk kebutuhan yang lebih produktif. oleh karena itu komoditaskomoditas yang memiliki ketergantungan dengan wilayah lain yang terlalu tinggi akan diberikan nilai negatif. hasil skoring sistem dengan kriteria seperti di atas menghasilkan skor antarkomoditas yang sangat beragam. posisi relatif unggul tidaknya suatu komoditas terhadap komoditas yang lain dapat diamati dengan membandingkan jumlah akhir dari skor setiap kriteria yang digunakan. tabel 6 dalam lampiran menyajikan secara lengkap skor total semua kriteria dan rincian skor yang dipakai dalam analisis. dari data hasil skoring dapat dilihat bahwa komoditas padi mempunyai nilai tertinggi dan sangat layak untuk dikembangkan dan menjadi komoditas unggulan di kecamatan imogiri. sedangkan mete dan markisa, serta empon merupakan komoditas unggulan berikutnya yang layak di kembangkan di kawasan ini. analisis swot berdasarkan hasil analisis yang diperoleh baik secara kualitatif dan kuantitatif, dapat diidentifikasikan beberapa kekuatan, kelemahan, peluang dan tantangan pengembangan kawasan agropolitan imogiri yang masing-masing akan dibahas pada sub bab berikut ini: (1) kekuatan. beberapa kekuatan yang dimiliki di wilayah perencanaan adalah: (a) wilayah kecamatan imogiri dilalui sungaisungai besar seperti sungai opak dan oyo yang mengalirkan material deposit letusan gunung merapi yang menyebabkan kondisi tanah sebagian wilayah tersebut cukup subur; jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 13, nomor 1, april 2012: 53-71 66 (b) memiliki jumlah dan kepadatan penduduk yang cukup untuk menunjang pengembangan kegiatan agropolitan, yaitu mencapai 61.667 jiwa dengan rata-rata kepadatan 1.950 jiwa/ km2; (c) sektor pertanian khususnya perkebunan dan perikanan adalah sektor andalan yang masih merupakan penyumbang terbesar pdrb kecamatan mencapai 23,33 persen; (d) kondisi sarana prasarana jaringan jalan beraspal yang cukup memadai. jarak menuju pusat kegiatan rata-rata kurang dari 10 km yang dalam keadaan normal dapat ditempuh kurang dari 30 menit; (e) ketersediaan sarana infrastruktur yang cukup memadai, seperti 1) jaringan listrik yang telah dimanfaatkan oleh sekitar 86,2 persen penduduk imogiri yang berfungsi sebagai pemasok energi bagi kegiatan produksi di kawasan agropolitan; 2) jaringan hp, telepon dan internet yang dapat berfungsi untuk memperlancar produksi maupun kegiatan pemasaran produk-produk agribisnis dari kawasan agropolitan; 3) bangunan irigasi yang masih berfungsi dengan baik; (f) memiliki sarana pendukung pengembangan kawasan agropolitan lainnya seperti pasar umum maupun pasar sapi dan kios pemasaran hasil olahan pertanian; (g) kawasan imogiri memiliki keunggulan agroekologi bagi beberapa jenis komoditas tertentu sebagaimana tercermin dari analisis kesesuaian lahannya; (h) mempunyai odtw (obyek dan daya tarik wisata) alam pegunungan, wisata air, wisata agro, wisata religi, makam raja-raja, batik, tatah sungging, dan keris yang sudah dikenal luas. (2) kelemahan. beberapa kelemahan yang dijumpai di wilayah perencanaan adalah: (a) pola produksi beberapa jenis komoditas masih mengikuti tradisi lama dan dengan skala kecil sehingga proses produksinya relatif tidak efiasien dan efektif dan dikhawatirkan akan mengurangi keunggulan kompetitifnya; (b) mulai dari perubahan guna lahan khususnya beralih untuk perumahan/permukiman dan usaha pertokoan sehingga terjadi penyempitan lahan pertanian; (c) beberapa komoditas seperti padi, emponempon, dan jambu mete dalam proses budidayanya kurang memiliki keterkaitan secara sistemik dengan sektor ekonomi lainnya; (d) kelangsungan hidup pengembangan beberapa jenis komoditas pertanian yang berorientasi komersial relatif sempit karena skala produksinya kecil; (e) posisi tawar petani seringkali sangat terbatas karena sifat-sifat komoditas yang cepat rusak oleh waktu dan tidak tahan lama untuk disimpan dalam rangka memperoleh harga jual yang lebih tinggi di luar musim panen. (f) tingkat produktifitas petani yang cenderung subsistem dan sulit untuk meningkatkan produktivitasnya akan sangat berpengaruh terhadap pengembangan agroindustri yang membutuhkan dukungan sediaan produk pertanian dalam jumlah besar dan konstan; (g) meskipun ruas-ruas jalan yang ada di kawasan agropolitan telah mampu menghubungkan antardesa-desa di kawasan agropolitan maupun ke pusat kawasan agropolitan di imogiri, akan tetapi kondisinya masih banyak yang rusak terutama pada jalan poros desa dan jalan antar desa; (h) fasilitas ekonomi seperti pasar setempat, pasar kaget, dan pasar induk harian belum memadai dan mencukupi untuk kebutuhan pemasaran hasil panen; (3) peluang. beberapa peluang yang dimiliki wilayah perencanaan adalah: (a) tradisi produksi yang berkembang di kawasan agropolitan imogiri merupakan tradisi produksi yang sudah lama dikenal dan dibudidayakan petani yang sudah teruji oleh fluktuasi musim dan ketidakpastian yang lain; (b) komoditas empon-empon merupakan beberapa produk agribisnis di kawasan agropolitan yang tidak memiliki ketergantungan input, sehingga dalam proses produksinya relatif aman. dalam hal ini apabila sewaktu-waktu terjadi kemacetan dalam produksi maka sistem produksinya akan tetap stabil; (c) memungkinkan terjadinya kegiatan perdagangan, pertukaran, dan distribusi berbagai komoditas pertanian antardaerah karena sistem jaringan yang sangat memadai; (d) komoditas yang ada dan berkembang di kecamatan imogiri dalam proses budidaya dan pengolahannya mampu memberikan serapan tenaga kerja; pengembangan kawasan agropolitan (agus tri basuki) 67 (e) jenis vegetasi atau tanaman yang dapat berkembang dengan baik di wilayah dengan karakteristik fisik: morfologi dataran, pergerakan aliran airnya cenderung melebar membentuk meandering dan berpola radial sentripetal dengan kedalaman efektif tanah antara 60-90 cm seperti padi, jagung, ubi jalar, tanaman tebu, jambu mete, dan sayuran jenis cabe, dan lainlain; (f) adanya pendukung kelembagaan seperti kud serta beberapa lembaga keuangan lain termasuk micro finance; (g) adanya peluang pasar karena pertumbuhan penduduk di kawasan tersebut maupun akses di luar kawasan. (h) memiliki jaringan pemasaran luas tidak hanya di tingkat lokal ataupun regional, tetapi juga nasional. (4) ancaman. berdasarkan pengembangan kawasan agropolitan ini, terdapat beberapa hal yang cukup menarik untuk dicermati dan menjadi tantangan untuk pengembangan kawasan agropolitan berikutnya, yaitu: (a) berkembangnya proses percaloan/ijon telah mengakibatkan produk pertanian dikuasai oleh pengijon dan dijual langsung ke pasar yang lebih luas tanpa melalui pusat kawasan agropolitan. bila praktek ini terus terjadi, proses pengembangan kawasan agropolitan sebagai satu kesatuan kawasan antara pusat agropolitan dan pusat produksi akan sulit diwujudkan dan nilai tambah yang diharapkan tidak akan terjadi di kawasan; (b) umumnya komoditas yang berkembang di kawasan agropolitan imogiri kurang memiliki kompetitor keunikan, sehingga produsen kurang dapat memperoleh banyak keuntungan dari pasar; (c) komoditas yang dibudidayakan kurang mampu menghasilkan cash flow. dalam hal ini, khususnya petani kecil ketersediaan pasokan cash relatif kecil; (d) jenis komoditas yang berkembang di kawasan agropolitan imogiri tidak semuanya merupakan jenis tanaman atau hewan yang menggunakan sedikit air dalam proses produksinya; (e) keberadaaan konflik penggunaan lahan antara kepentingan produksi primer dengan perumahan dan pariwisata. (f) dibutuhkan penjadwalan waktu dan kelembagaan yang terintegrasi. baik jadwal pemrograman, penyiapan masyarakat, implementasi fisik lapangan, dan kelembagaan wewenang dan penanggung jawab mulai dari institusi pusat sampai dengan desa serta mencakup stakeholder yang terkait baik pemerintah, swasta, maupun masyarakat; rencana pengembangan komoditas unggulan mengingat kecamatan imogiri akan menjadi pusat pengembangan kawasan agropolitan maka perlu disusun suatu perencanaan yang matang dalam pengembangan komoditas unggulan agar tidak terjadi masalah-masalah baru setelah proses produksi berhasil dilaksanakan, mengingat sifat produk primer pertanian bersifat mudah rusak, sehingga cenderung dikonsumsi segar. perencanaan merupakan bagian yang sangat vital dari suatu konsep manajemen, begitu juga dalam konsep manajemen pertanian yang mendukung pengembangan agropolitan di kecamatan imogiri. rencana pengembangan komoditas unggulan terpilih dapat didasarkan pada dua hal penting, yaitu permintaan pasar dan ketersediaan/kecukupan lahan sehingga sangat dimungkinkan pengembangan komoditas unggulan dengan wilayah produksi di luar kawasan pengembangan agropolitan. bawang merah dan cabe merah sebagai komoditas unggulan di kecamatan imogiri memerlukan kestabilan jumlah produksi mengingat masih seringnya petani mengganti jenis komoditas yang ditanam. hal ini dapat menyebabkan terjadinya fluktuasi jumlah produksi yang dapat menyebabkan harga yang cenderung tidak stabil. hal lain yang sulit untuk dilakukan adalah sikap tidak menjamin kualitas hasil pada para petani individu yang dapat merusak pasar. sebagai contoh pada saat permintaan komoditas bawang merah meningkat tajam dan harganya pun sedang tinggi, sementara musim panen belum tiba maka petani cenderung mengabaikan proses sortasi sehingga dapat menurunkan kualitas bawang merah tersebut. hal ini akan merugikan produsen (petani) sendiri karena image masyarakat terhadap bawang merah yang semula sangat baik menjadi berubah ke jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 13, nomor 1, april 2012: 53-71 68 arah negatif akibat petani hanya mengejar memenuhi kuota jumlah barang. pengembangan komoditas unggulan ke depan harus memperhatikan anasir agroklimatologis yang membatasi (limiting factors) agar dapat dirumuskan dengan baik cara mengatasinya dan besaran potensi untuk dikembangkannya komoditas tersebut. penetapan zonasi komoditas yang baik diikuti sosialisasi rencana program yang mantap dan disertai kemudahan bagi petani untuk mendapatkan input berupa sarana produksi baik modal kerja, bibit unggul berkualitas, bimbingan teknis yang memadai. dalam rencana pengembangan komoditas unggulan sebaiknya tidak hanya terfokus pada produk akhir tanaman yang diperdagangkan tetapi dapat juga dikembangkan usaha perbenihan, sehingga hasrat untuk mengembangkan komoditas secara individu dapat difasilitasi. usaha budidaya mete di kecamatan imogiri yang sudah sampai kepada pengolahan industri kecil dengan variasi produknya sudah cukup dapat dikembangkan, namum terlepas dari adanya pengolahan tersebut perlu dikembangkan strategi pegolahan yang berkelanjutan agar dapat saling mendukung dengan pengembangan kawasan yang lain. pengembangan komoditas padi di kecamatan imogiri dengan stategi pengembangan padi organik merupakan salah satu keunggulan yang menjanjikan. perkembangan padi organik ke depan diarahkan pada sistem perbenihan ini telah dirintis oleh beberapa kelompok tani di kecamatan imogiri dan sekitarnya. ke depan usaha ini perlu difasilitasi oleh pemerintah daerah, sehingga kawasan agropolitan imogiri nantinya tidak hanya dikenal sebagai sentra produksi beras organik tapi juga menjadi sentra benih (seed center) khususnya komoditas padi organik. simpulan rencana pengembangan komoditas unggulan terpilih dapat didasarkan pada dua hal penting, yaitu permintaan pasar dan ketersediaan/ kecukupan lahan sehingga sangat dimungkinkan pengembangan komoditas unggulan dengan wilayah produksi di luar kawasan pengembangan agropolitan. bawang merah dan cabe merah sebagai komoditas unggulan di kecamatan imogiri memerlukan kestabilan jumlah produksi mengingat masih seringnya petani mengganti jenis komoditas yang ditanam. hal ini dapat menyebabkan terjadinya fluktuasi jumlah produksi yang dapat menyebabkan harga yang cenderung tidak stabil. pengembangan komoditas unggulan ke depan harus memperhatikan anasir agroklimatologis yang membatasi (limiting factors) agar dapat dirumuskan dengan baik cara mengatasinya dan besaran potensi untuk dikembangkannya komoditas tersebut. penetapan zonasi komoditas yang baik diikuti sosialisasi rencana program yang mantap dan disertai kemudahan bagi petani untuk mendapatkan input berupa sarana produksi baik modal kerja, bibit unggul berkualitas, bimbingan teknis yang memadai. daftar pustaka aronoft, s. 1989. geographic informations system: a management perspective. otawa, canada: wdl publications. arsyatd lingcolin. 1999. pengantar perencanaan dan pengembangan ekonomi daerah. 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ke lan ah (b) ke lan ah (b) ke lan ah (b) ke lan 2011 politan (agu ukkan peta k l 1. kondisi f geologis erakal, kerikil, nau, pasir arakal, kerikil, sir, lanau, mpung ndapan pasir, nau, lempung ndapan pasir, nau, lempung erakal, kerikil, nau, pasir erakal, kerikil, nau, pasir erakal, kerikil, nau, pasir erakal, kerikil, nau, pasir us tri basuki) lampira kawasan raw fisik dasar w geomor dataran kaki merapi, kem 7 % dataran kaki merapi, kem 7 % dataran kaki merapi, kem 7 % dataran kaki merapi, kem 7 % dataran kaki merapi, kem 7 % dataran kaki merapi, kem 7 % dataran kaki merapi, kem 7 % dataran kaki merapi, kem 7 % ) an wan bencana wilayah pere rfologi h i gunung miringan 0r se i gunung miringan 0r se i gunung miringan 0r se i gunung miringan 0r se i gunung miringan 0r se i gunung miringan 0r se i gunung miringan 0r se i gunung miringan 0r se a di kecamat encanaan hidrologi adial entripetal a ta ke adial entripetal a ta ke adial entripetal a ta ke adial entripetal a ta ke adial entripetal a ta ke adial entripetal a ta ke adial entripetal a ta ke adial entripetal a ta ke tan imogiri tanah aluvial, regosol, anah sedang-sed edalaman efekti aluvial, regosol, anah sedang-sed edalaman efekti aluvial, regosol, anah sedang-sed edalaman efekti aluvial, regosol, anah sedang-sed edalaman efekti aluvial, regosol, anah sedang-sed edalaman efekti aluvial, regosol, anah sedang-sed edalaman efekti aluvial, regosol, anah sedang-sed edalaman efekti aluvial, regosol, anah sedang-sed edalaman efekti 69 h tekstur dang, if >90 cm tekstur dang, if >90 cm tekstur dang, if >90 cm tekstur dang, if >90 cm tekstur dang, if >90 cm tekstur dang, if >90 cm tekstur dang, if >90 cm tekstur dang, if >90 cm 7 70 n 2 3 4 5 8 1 1 1 1 1 1 sumbe ga gam ju tabel no. 1 tradisi 2 keterk 3 keterk 4 skala p 5 serapa 6 durabi 7 keterse 8 sifat pa 9 kompe 10 cash flo 11 kebutu 12 kebutu 13 keung 14 keterg 15 skor to er : hasil analis ambar 3. peta mbar 4.. peta p rnal ekonom l 6. kriteria se kriteria ek i produksi kaitan produks kaitan regional produksi an tenaga kerja ilitas komodita ediaan pasar asar etitor keunikan ow harian uhan air uhan tanah gulan agroeko gantungan inpu otal sis 2011 a pengemban pengembang mi dan studi eleksi komodi konomi si a as n ologi ut ngan kawas gan kawasan pembangun itas unggulan padi + + + + + + + + + + + + 13 san strategis n strategis a nan volume 1 n di kecamata mete em + + + + + + + + + + + 11 agropolitan agropolitan ( 13, nomor 1, n imogiri mpon2 m + + + + + + + + + + 10 n (ksa) wuk ksa) karan april 2012: 5 markisa + + + + + + + + + + + 11 kirsari gtengah 53-71 pengem mbangan ka gambar 5 gamba wasan agrop 5. peta penge ar 6. peta pen politan (agu embangan ka ngembangan us tri basuki) awasan strat n kawasan st ) tegis agropo trategis agro olitan (ksa) opolitan (ks kebonagun a) imogiri 71 g jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 24 nomor 1, april 2023 article type: research paper subsidized health insurance impact among the poor: evidence on out-of-pocket health expenditures in indonesia niken larasati sosodoro1*, rasi tamadhika fajar ramadhan2, and akhmad akbar susamto3 abstract: universal health care (uhc) in indonesia, named the national health insurance (jaminan kesehatan nasional jkn), has been running since 2014. jkn was predicted to be the most extensive uhc program in the world. under jkn, the poor get free health services through the cashless method through a sub-program called contribution assistance recipients (penerima bantuan iuran pbi). unfortunately, jkn faced several failures to cover the program's expenditures within years. within the current dynamics, was pbi, as part of jkn still effectively helping the poor? we examined the effectiveness of the pbi program by measuring differences in out-of-pocket health expenditures for the poor with similar socioeconomic characteristics who used pbi and those who did not. we incorporated secondary data from national socio-economic survey (susenas). the dataset was executed by using propensity score matching (psm) methodology. we used health expenditures and socio-economic parameters such as income, education, and gender from the 2017 and 2018 susenas data. we found that in 2017, the total health expenditures of the pbi beneficiaries were lower than the non-beneficiaries. nevertheless, by merging all two years' data, similar to 2018, we found general pattern that pbi participants' total health out-of-pocket payments were bigger than the non-participants. health expenditures such as medicine, traditional practitioners, and others, were expenditure classifications in which pbi beneficiaries had lower expenses than non-beneficiaries in 2017. therefore, therefore, the uhc subsidy program for the poor in indonesia has not only been ineffective through the years of implementation but also has not been effectively implemented for all variations of health expenditure types. keywords: indonesia; pbi; poverty; propensity score matching; universal health care jel classification: c31; c38; c46; h51; i13; i38 introduction universal health coverage (uhc) has been seen as a new system in many countries (mckee et al., 2013). the main objectives associated with uhc were usually to ensure that everyone can access health services without financial difficulties and to reduce direct payments from households at the time of health services use. uhc is one of the realizations of millennium development goals (onokerhoraye, 2016). the study showed uhc brought hope to improve welfare of the poor (yilma et al., 2015; korenman et al., affiliation: 1 department of economics faculty of economics and business, universitas indonesia, west java, indonesia 2 center of reform on economics, jakarta capital special region, indonesia 3 department of economics, faculty of economics and business, universitas gadjah mada, special region of yogyakarta, indonesia *correspondence: niken.larasati@ui.ac.id this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/es p doi: 10.18196/jesp.v24i1.17420 citation: sosodoro, n. l., ramadhan, r. t. f., & susamto, a. a. (2023). subsidized health insurance impact among the poor: evidence on out-of-pocket health expenditures in indonesia. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 24(1), 198-211. article history received: 03 jan 2023 revised: 17 apr 2023 accepted: 13 jun 2023 https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?user=wiwxnduaaaaj&hl=en&oi=ao https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?hl=en&user=hfy_j7caaaaj https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?hl=en&user=ayjrivyaaaaj https://economics.feb.ui.ac.id/ https://economics.feb.ui.ac.id/ https://economics.feb.ui.ac.id/ https://economics.feb.ui.ac.id/ https://economics.feb.ui.ac.id/ https://www.coreindonesia.org/ https://www.coreindonesia.org/ https://www.coreindonesia.org/ https://www.coreindonesia.org/ https://www.coreindonesia.org/ https://economics.feb.ugm.ac.id/ https://economics.feb.ugm.ac.id/ https://economics.feb.ugm.ac.id/ https://economics.feb.ugm.ac.id/ mailto:niken.larasati@ui.ac.id http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp http://dx.doi.org/10.18196/jesp.v24i1.17420 https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v24i1.17420&domain=pdf sosodoro, ramadhan, & susamto subsidized health insurance impact among the poor: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 199 2016; ridha & perdana, 2015; lu et al., 2020). nevertheless, the application still faces many challenges (tinasti, 2015; yang, 2018), especially for vulnerable populations (vilcu, 2016). pro-poor health insurance can be one of the most effective ways to eradicate poverty (korenman et al., 2016). in indonesia, a particular program was allocated for low-income people named contribution assistance recipients (penerima bantuan iuran pbi) was regulated in indonesia health ministry policy number 28 year 2014. the pbi program was a sub-program under the general uhc program in indonesia called national health insurance (jaminan kesehatan nasional – jkn). in the initial stage, pbi was designed for impoverished people to get the third class of national insurance services for free in indonesia. however, during the implementation, pbi faced obstacles similar to uhc in other countries. therefore, it was crucial to investigate whether this program was effective enough to reduce the health expenditures of the poor or not (camacho & conover, 2013). apart from the fact that it affected many people's lives, the topic of pbi was also essential to be evaluated for several reasons. first, it was due to the increased trend of unmet health care needs within ten years in indonesia. furthermore, according to the indonesia national bureau survey, it was found that the lowest income group had the highest level of unmet health care needs. secondly, the trend of poverty in indonesia has been seemingly constant for the past ten years; thus, pbi will still be needed considering the people living in poverty will have a high probability of still existing in the following years. finally, this was due to the deficit of the bpjs program that has been occurring for years, thus having the probability of hindering the access and effectiveness of pbi for the poor. figure 1 the population that practice self health treatment within the last month source: indonesia statistics database. date accessed: january 31, 2021. 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 p o p u la ti o n i n p e rc e n ta g e year indonesian that practice self healthtreatment within the last month (in percentage) sosodoro, ramadhan, & susamto subsidized health insurance impact among the poor: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 200 as aji et al. (2013) examined, the government-covered health insurance for the poor in indonesia in the past, executed subsidized health insurance for the low-income population. in comparison, other studies focused more on different classifications of the sample objects, such as general healthcare coverage insurance for maternal services, which focused more on inequality eradication, or one that focused more on children's healthcare (anindya et al. 2020). inter-country and inter-sector comparative insurance studies have also been conducted related to indonesia's healthcare system (ramesh 2014). various expenditure types of the healthcare system in indonesia were also examined, either focusing on general out-of-pocket expenses in the past program (aji et al. 2013), or catastrophic insurance expenditures for the general population (situmeang & hidayat 2018). the results of health insurance world studies were various if we see them from welfare point of view. in welfare point of view, the results showed contrary positive and negative directions. ramesh's (2014) comparative study also asserted that the philippines' health insurance program for the poor has low effectiveness and is worse than indonesia's. in the united states, people are relatively sensitive to prices. people would be less inclined to have insurance if there was an increase in premiums for both private and public insurance (guy et al. 2012). figure 2 indonesia's unmet healthcare needs according to expenditure group source: indonesia statistics database. date accessed: january 31, 2021. our research can fill in the gap from previous works of literature by providing several actions. firstly, this research examined the effectiveness of the most updated health care subsidized program in indonesia (pbi) which is still rare up to today in kinds of literature. secondly, unlike other indonesia subsidized insurance literature, instead of investigating the general outcome from all the observation years, here we examined each single year's 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 u n m e t n e e d s (p e rc e n ta g e ) indonesia`s unmet healthcare needs based on expenditure groups 2015-2019 lowest expenditure group second lowest expenditure group middle expenditure group second highest expenditure group highest expenditure group sosodoro, ramadhan, & susamto subsidized health insurance impact among the poor: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 201 outcome to gain detailed results. the approach may answer whether pbi’s current system was agile enough to deal with changing healthcare costs and effectively meet the health needs of the poor. thirdly, we also put detailed examination on health expense classifications instead of only examining one general health expenditure behavior. this expenditure classification approach can answer whether the program was effective enough to improve the health and prosperity of the poor according to their needs. we did several actions within this research to answer and tackle the challenges. first, we employed data from people who live under the poverty line from the national socioeconomic survey (survey sosial dan ekonomi nasional susenas) years 2017 and 2018. next, we investigated total health out-of-pocket expenditures and all of the health expense terminals released by susenas and grouped them into five specific group expenses. considering the ascending trend of health costs, to prove the pbi program's continuous effectiveness throughout the year, we conducted research year by year to get specific insights for each year. furthermore, we also merged the 2017 and 2018 datasets to get general outcomes within pooled years. third, we used propensity score matching methods to tackle limited accessibility to potential respondents, including those in remote areas. the results showed varied results between different health expense types and periods. in 2017 several health terminal expenses were effectively lower under the pbi program. nevertheless, in 2018, the pbi program showed that all kinds of health expenses reduction no longer occurred under pbi. while the general results after merging the data for the year 2017 2018 showed similar results, with 2018 outcomes, where only certain types of health expenses are effectively reduced under pbi. where only certain types of health expenses are effectively reduced under pbi. based on our findings, we suggested that the implementation of pbi must be adjusted actively along with the ascending trend of health costs. pbi coverage may also need to be expanded to the few types of health expenses and broader types of health expense terminals. we hope that our study about out-of-pocket health spending behavior can benefit the upcoming related policies and research. research method for this study, we used susenas data years 2018 and 2017. for the pooled dataset, we incorporated 134.493 data. while for the year 2017, we used 68.809 data, and 76.318 observations were used for the 2018 dataset. in practice, external factors changed between years, for instance, the standard poverty measurements, changes in healthcare prices, and others). for this research, we also used relatively large number of samples as in sentenac et al. (2016). sosodoro, ramadhan, & susamto subsidized health insurance impact among the poor: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 202 table 1 variable definition and descriptive statistics for pool year data 2017-2018 variables definition 2017 2018 outcome variables mean stdev mean stdev health total health expenditure in the last 12 months. 122993.3 96424.06 285053.4 483682.2 medicine medicine expenditure in the last 12 months. (only drugs purchased at pharmacies, drugstores, etc.) 33541.01 42686.48 37841.06 89597.6 treatment medical/healing services expenditure in the last 12 months (including birth costs and medicines not specified) 37699.67 55090.88 41151.27 85250.32 preventive preventive expenditure in the last 12 months. 5172.759 24146.85 34402.27 121075.2 hospital outpatient & inpatient costs in the last 12 months. (national & private hospital, public health center, health practitioner) 31895.08 59865.36 137119.5 397306.4 tradpract traditional health expenditure in the last 12 months. (traditional health practitioner & traditional midwife) 14684.83 40165.25 34538.82 117283.5 independent variables gender 1 if the gender category is man, 0 otherwise 0.489921 0.49999 0.49945 0.500003 read 1 if the individual can read, 0 otherwise 0.973579 0.160385 0.956708 0.203516 educ the years of individual learn in formal education 9.729367 1.424036 9.639561 1.364651 kapita monthly income of the individual 301026.2 49758.77 321146.3 54519.41 source: susenas 2017 2018, with further modifications. the definition of variables is mainly based on indonesia statistics susenas. in comparison, the descriptions of the modified variables are defined based on the formulation. in the models below, i represents the observation or person, while y represents the year of observations. sosodoro, ramadhan, & susamto subsidized health insurance impact among the poor: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 203 healthiy = α1 genderiy + β1 readiy + δ1 educiy + λ1 kapitaiy (1) medicine iy = α2 genderiy + β2 readiy + δ2 educiy + λ2 kapitaiy (2) treatment iy = α3 genderiy + β3 readiy + δ3 educiy + λ3 kapitaiy (3) preventive iy = α3 genderiy + β3 readiy + δ3 educiy + λ3 kapitaiy (4) hospital iy = α4 genderiy + β4 readiy + δ4 educiy + λ4 kapitaiy (5) tradpract iy = α5 genderiy + β5 readiy + δ5 educiy + λ5 kapitaiy (6) in the beginning phase of the psm method logit model needs to be run (abadie & imbens, 2016; keller & tipton, 2016; rickles & seltzer, 2014; sentenac et al., 2016). in this paper, the logit models used are based on equations one to six, but we changed each dependent variable with pbi variable. the dependent variable in this case is dichotomous. in this case, one means the individual received pbi, while zero means the inverse condition. to observe the dynamics of the spending behavior, we specifically divided the model used into two separate years in purpose to be able to lessen the noise of socio-economic differences and to find more similar characteristics matching observations in the same year. in order to understand the more significant trends within two years, we combined samples from 2017 and 2018 into one pool dataset and examined them with psm methods. within the research, we tried to include as many as possible of the samples to get results that were close to the natural condition. as shown in the descriptive statistics table 1, there were only two variables representing categorical data, which were gender and education. the other variables use numerical data: educ, treatment, medicine, hospital, and tradpract. from table 1, gender variables mean were not vary from year to year. in other words, the proportion of men and women in indonesia's low-income group could be considered balanced since the mean value was 0.49. the ability to read among the observation group slightly decreased from 2017 to 2018. the income per month average value was also increased by idr 20.120. from table 1, total health expenditure terminals faced an increase between the two years of observation. the total increase was idr 162.060 on average. the conceptual research framework of this research is depicted in figure 3. there were six equations examined within three different time frames. the first time frame observed 2017 solely, the second was the single year of 2018, and the last was by creating a pool of two years of datasets into one. the aims of differentiating the year of observation into different sets were to observe and understand further outcomes and patterns comparison between other times. we used propensity score matching (psm) as our main tool in this research. three types of psm methods were used in this paper, which were nearest neighbour matching, kernel matching, and radius matching. we also checked the reduction bias after the matching process to check the quality of bias level. the three different psm were used to gain comparative research outcomes that provided robustness analysis (khandker et al. 2010). sosodoro, ramadhan, & susamto subsidized health insurance impact among the poor: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 204 there were sixteen different streams of out-of-pocket expenditure for healthcare made by the indonesian population based on susenas. we grouped them into six different categories. first was the health variable, which consists of all total expenditures in a year, while the others were grouped based on their similarity in characteristics. hospital and treatment variables were two specific grouped expenses covered in the pbi program. the regressors used in this research were gender, read, educ, and kapita. those were chosen to capture general socio-economic conditions that were related to the health care out-ofpocket expenses. based on our statistical observation, susenas database were the best to reach the balancing property needed for conducting propensity score matching. figure 3 research stages figure 4 health expenditures variables composition based on susenas 2017 and 2018 figure 4 shows the details of each dependent variable composition. for health variable, it represents the total out of pocket health expenditures made by the individual for one year. meanwhile, the medicine variable was constructed by summed up the out-of-pocket expenditure of non-prescriptive medicine, traditional medicine and prescriptive medicine made by the poor. the research steps we made were explained in figure 3. in the beginning we constructed the model based on the literature review, then we defined and formed the variables. after that, we performed psm methods while also checking the model's validity and robustness indicators (abadie & imbens, 2016; keller & tipton, 2016; rickles & seltzer, 2014; pugo sambodo, 2018). sosodoro, ramadhan, & susamto subsidized health insurance impact among the poor: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 205 result and discussion we performed logit regression in the first phase of the psm research stages. the purpose of doing logit regression was to determine whether there was a relationship between variables. in this regression stage, the pbi variable became the dependent variable, while gender, kapita, educ, and read were independent variables. we performed three logit regressions, differentiating the 2017 and 2018 time frames and 2017-2018 combined. from the regression results, most of the p-values had values below 0.05. from these results, it could be interpreted that the primary model used was reasonable. from table 2, it can be seen if there were relationships between pbi variables and other variables. the regression results showed that the lower the community's income, the greater their tendency to participate in the pbi program. in the educ variable, it could be interpreted that the lower the level of education, the greater the tendency of society to participate in the pbi program. unlike the previous variables, the gender variable outcome in 2018 was not aligned with 2017 and the pool year. in 2018, the results showed that more women participated in the pbi program. the read variable indicated that in 2017 people who could not read tended to participate in the pbi program. conversely, in 2018, people who could read tended to participate in the pbi program. if the two years of observation were combined, the reading ability variable was insignificant for pbi participation. in the second psm stage, we calculated the propensity score for each observation. similar to the previous step, we calculated three times scores according to the time frame sample division as in the beginning. we also did a balancing property check while making several adjustments to the sample by removing outliers. table 2 logit estimations of program participation (treatment = 1). estimated coefficients for selected variables for pool data set for the year 2017-2018 variables 20172018 2017 2018 gender -0.008 0.005 -0.029** (0.011) (0.015) (0.015) read -0.026 -0.114** 0.101*** (0.029) (0.047) (0.035) educ -0.049*** -0.058*** -0.036*** (0.003) (0.005) (0.005) kapita -0.00000062*** -0.00000157*** -0.000000536*** (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) constant 0.668*** 0.948*** 0.566*** (0.057) (0.081) (0.071) number of obs 134,493 68,809 76,318 lr chi2(4) 198.97 242.96 74.23 prob > chi2 0.000 0.000 0.000 pseudo r2 0.0011 0.0026 0.0007 source: susenas 2017 2018, with further calculations. notes: ***significant at p < 0.01; **significant at p < 0.05; *significant at p < 0.1. standard errors are in parentheses sosodoro, ramadhan, & susamto subsidized health insurance impact among the poor: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 206 figure 5 total health care expenditure density before matching stage year 2018 note: only total health expenditures, among other expenses, are displayed as the representative to show the contrast between treated and control groups. after reaching the balancing property for each sample group, we continued the psm stage process. according to ho et al. (2007), apart from low r2, we could continue the psm method stages if the balancing property was satisfied. this condition was mainly known as propensity tautology. the third step was to check the reduction bias of matching results. the six health expenditure variables were the leading variables to be tested. from the results, after matching results, all had reduction bias except for prevent variable; all have p-values at least below 0.05. while based on bias reductions, all health expenditure variables had positive value except for the prevent and tradpract variables. in figure 5 and 6, we can see the comparison of kernel density results before and after the matching process. the figures show that after matching process, the samples were more similarly distributed. figure 6 total health care expenditure density after matching stage year 2018 note: only total health expenditures, among other expenses, are displayed as the representative to show the contrast between the treated and control group. 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 kd e n si ty _ p sc o re .46 .48 .5 .52 .54 .56 propensity scores before matching treated control comparison of propensity score before matching made between treated and control group the graph is process further based on susenas data year 2018 sample coverage are households living under poverty in indonesia total health care expenditure before matching 2018 0 1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 kd e n si ty _ p sc o re .46 .48 .5 .52 .54 .56 propensity scores after matching treated control comparison of propensity score before matching made between treated and control group the graph is process further based on susenas data year 2018 sample coverage are households living under poverty in indonesia total health care expenditure after matching 2018 sosodoro, ramadhan, & susamto subsidized health insurance impact among the poor: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 207 table 3 propensity score matching results – estimated average treatment effect on treated (att) 2017 2018 2017 2018 outcome variable nearest neighbor matching kernel based matching radius matching nearest neighbor matching kernel based matching radius matching nearest neighbor matching kernel based matching radius matching att att (caliper = 0.1) att att (caliper = 0.1) att att (caliper = 0.1) att att att health 19368.7 19581.5 19166.7 -1875.8 -2669.7 -2655.6 22284.9 14633.7 13987.56 (9.99) (10.16) (9.96) (-2.43) (-3.6) (-3.59) (6.11) (4.18) (4.00) treatment -1796.6 -1921.9 -1951.7 -2987.1 -3968.8 -3929.7 38.3 -1201.3 -1245.5 (-4.71) (-5.06) (-5.15) (-6.85) (-9.43) (-9.37) (0.06) (-1.94) (-2.02) medicine -3604.7 -3547.03 -3651.8 -3346.05 -3328.6 -3302.9 -2966.9 -4030.06 -4124.4 (-9.4) (-9.27) (-9.56) (-9.81) (-10.19) (-10.14) (-4.36) (-6.09) (-6.24) preventive 403.3 526.7 489.6 375.03 456.7 415.5 -4191.05 -4385.2 -4504.9 (0.84) (1.11) (1.03) (1.93) (2.45) (2.24) (-4.59) (-4.94) (887.8) hospital 28416.9 28548.9 28248.02 7216.95 7445.1 7375.1 37381.5 33056.5 32674.7 (18.16) (18.33) (18.16) (14.97) (16.03) (15.92) (12.49) (11.54) (11.41) tradpract -4050.3 -4025.1 -3967.8 -3134.6 -3274.1 -3213.6 -7976.9 -8806.2 -8812.3 (-8.31) (-8.33) (-8.22) (-9.81) (-10.72) (-10.56) (-8.97) (860.02) (-10.26) source: calculations based on propensity score matching methods, data sources are based on susenas 2018. att is average treatment effects on the treated. t-statistics are in parentheses. the outcomes show different numerical values in indonesian rupiah currency (idr). sosodoro, ramadhan, & susamto subsidized health insurance impact among the poor: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 208 table 4 bias reduction after matching stage in pool dataset 2017-2018 variable sample mean %bia s %bias reductio n t-test p > | t | v (t)/v(c) treatment group control group health unmatched 210000 190000 5.4 17.3 9.98 0.00 1.27* matched 210000 200000 4.5 8.07 0.00 1.20* treatment unmatched 38238 40189 -2.8 10.8 -5.15 0.00 1.01 matched 38238 39978 -2.5 -4.56 0.00 1.02* medicine unmatched 33653 37305 -5.2 0.8 -9.52 0.00 0.63* matched 33653 37277 -5.2 -8.59 0.00 0.48* prevent unmatched 20084 19595 0.6 21.5 1.03 0.30 0.90* matched 20084 20468 -0.4 -0.78 0.43 0.84* hospital unmatched 98201 69957 9.9 8.5 18.22 0.00 1.46* matched 98201 72364 9.1 16.36 0.00 1.40* tradpract unmatched 22653 26621 -4.5 -6.8 -8.21 0.00 0.85* matched 22653 26892 -4.8 -8.6 0.00 0.81* source: data sources are based on susenas 2017 – 2018, with further modification. methodology used propensity score matching. the table 3 shows pool data set result reduction bias. the next stage was executing the datasets with three types of psm methods. the three psm methods are nearest neighbour matching, kernel matching, and radius matching. as in the previous stage, there were three research time frames. as can be seen in table 3, all the results for each category had similar values. for example, for the health category in 2017, all of the outputs had negative values with outcomes around idr 2000. the negative difference results were found in several categories in the year 2017 and the combined year group. meanwhile, in 2018 all outcomes or all expenditure terminals comparisons between users and non-users had positive values. moreover, the positive number in 2018 was higher than the results in 2017. regarding the outcomes of tstatistics in parentheses, all had values above |1.96| except for the preventive category. robustness character can be interpreted from the same sign and the output value that are not much different between one method and another (khandker et al. 2010). based on the results of bias checking in table 4, there was a similar trend for the two years of observation, namely for preventive expenditures and traditional practices expenditures that were not fit into the pbi program. this could be seen from either the insignificant pvalues or the increased biases. for traditional practice spending, this was plausible because this sector was not included in the scope of pbi financing. nonetheless, preventive healthcare such as immunization was supposed to be covered in pbi service yet shows unfavorable bias reductions. according to jigjidsuren (2016), the improvement of health insurance for the poor needs political power and multi sectoral movements, while in indonesia jung (2016) argued those aspects were necessary but needed more people power for the case in indonesia. sosodoro, ramadhan, & susamto subsidized health insurance impact among the poor: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 209 technical aspects for making cost cap (kendall et al., 2019), or improving hospital competitiveness (sepehri, 2014), could bring health insurance effectiveness came true. nevertheless, developing countries' implementation needs to learn more from other developing countries rather than developed countries to gain more objective outcomes (camacho & conover, 2013). several policy implications were formulated based on our findings. the first was to improve the hospital service system for pbi beneficiaries. second, in the short term, pbi may ensure the provision of essential vaccinations so that people are more protected from severe diseases that require hospital access. the third was pbi collaboration to expand current health services with other health service channels to spread health awareness and facilities accessibility for the poor. the fourth was to focus on child health programs. this is due to the population of poor children being more than the middle children population. related to the technical aspect, we suggested that further research can evaluate the pbi program's effectiveness with more sample years. in addition, impact evaluation methods other than psm can be used as a measurement variation. the pandemic factor and the elimination of the insurance tier on the effectiveness of pbi can also be considered for further research. conclusion our research examined the effectiveness of the pbi program in indonesia from 2017 to 2018. at that time, pbi was a sub-program of uhc in indonesia. during the implementation, indonesia's uhc experienced deficits for several years, causing the potential ineffectiveness of the pbi program. using the psm method, we tested the implementation effectiveness of the pbi policy. aligned with the initial hypothesis, we found that the total cash expenditure of pbi users was more significant than non-pbi users. based on indonesia's health ministry policy number 28 year 2014, every people living under poverty has rights to get health facilities without paying the insurance cost. nevertheless, based on our findings, many of the poor still spent out of pocket expenses to cover their health needs, which showed the disparity between society's demand and government policy. therefore, under the pbi program, the out-of-pocket expenditure of the beneficiaries should be lower than non-beneficiaries. surprisingly, pbi was proven to be effective in certain health expenditure groups. pbi participants' cash health expenditures were lower in 2017 for medicine, health treatment, and traditional practitioners. to sum up, the pbi program has not consistently and effectively reduced health expenditures for the indonesian poor of various health expenditures and periods. from the results obtained, household expenditures were effectively suppressed for spending covered in the initial inspection stage. however, glancing at the health expenses effectiveness outcomes, further health treatment referrals, such as to hospitals and preventive health services, have been ineffective. sosodoro, ramadhan, & susamto subsidized health insurance impact among the poor: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 210 references abadie, a., & imbens, g. w. 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(2015). impact of ethiopia’s community based health insurance on household economic welfare. the world bank economic review, 29, s164–s173. https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhv009 https://doi.org/10.1355/ae31-1c https://doi.org/10.3102/1076998614559748 https://doi.org/10.17269/cjph.107.5526 https://doi.org/10.2190/hs.44.1.e https://jurnal.ugm.ac.id/jkki/article/view/12186 https://doi.org/10.11604/pamj.2015.21.53.6727 https://doi.org/10.1186/s12939-016-0436-3 http://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep28227 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2018.06.004 https://doi.org/10.1093/wber/lhv009 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 24 nomor 1, april 2023 article type: research paper spatial mapping and determinants of health performance in north sumatra province wiwiek rindayati1*, ing mariani hastuti2, and alla asmara1 abstract: the province of north sumatra has the lowest health performance in sumatra, with disparities amongst districts /cities. this study aims to analyze the health performance factor of north sumatra districts/cities using a geographically weighted panel regression (gwpr) model analysis in 33 districts/cities with a time series of 2012-2019. the analysis results showed that the determinants of health performance differed between districts/cities grouped into 15 groups based on influencing factors and four clusters based on the area of the development areas. the income variable has a significant positive effect on all 33 districts, the education variable has a positive effect on 19 districts, the human health resources variable has a positive effect on 12 districts, the immunization variable has a positive effect on 11 districts, the proper sanitation variable has positive on nine districts, the government spending in health sector variable has positive on five districts, and the medical facility variable has positive on one district namely karo. determinants in the nias island area: income, government spending in the health sector, and human resources. west coast area: income, education, and proper sanitation. east coast area: income, education, health, human resources, and immunization. the determinant highland area differs between regencies/cities. to improve the performance of health development in the province, it is necessary to carry out a spatial approach based on cluster equations and influencing factors. increased income, education, and human health resources must be prioritized in almost all district areas. keywords: gwpr; health performance; north sumatra; spatial mapping jel classification: i150; i180 introduction human development puts health indicators into the main measurement component in addition to economic and educational indicators. the fundamental need and human right that must be met is health because every human being needs to be healthy to move and survive (de campos 2012). health is a major component of well-being and a prerequisite for increasing productivity (north sumatra health office (dinkes), 2020). bloom et al. (2004) and anwar (2018) empirically prove that health positively affects economic growth through increased worker productivity. to realize the sustainable development goals (sdgs), the government created a health development program reflected in the third goal: ensuring a healthy life system and increasing the population's prosperity affiliation: 1 department of economics, faculty of economics and management, ipb university, west java, indonesia 2 statistics langkat regency, north sumatra *correspondence: wiwiekri@apps.ipb.ac.id this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v24i1.16747 citation: rindayati, w., hastuti, i. m., & asmara, a. (2023). spatial mapping and determinants of health performance in north sumatra province. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 24(1), 225-241. article history received: 05 nov 2022 revised: 18 jan 2023 16 may 2023 accepted: 29 may 2023 https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?user=qo5izxoaaaaj&hl=en https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?hl=en&user=mippilcaaaaj https://fem.ipb.ac.id/ https://fem.ipb.ac.id/ https://fem.ipb.ac.id/ https://fem.ipb.ac.id/ https://langkatkab.bps.go.id/ https://langkatkab.bps.go.id/ https://ep.unnes.ac.id/web/ https://ep.unnes.ac.id/web/ mailto:wiwiekri@apps.ipb.ac.id http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp http://dx.doi.org/10.18196/jesp.v24i1.16747 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v24i1.16747&domain=pdf rindayati, hastuti, & asmara spatial mapping and determinants of health performance in north sumatra province jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 226 at all ages. the goal is to prevent child mortality, maternal mortality, and the death of people aged less than 70 years due to disease (bps statistics indonesia, 2019). demand in the health economy is a derivative demand, namely goods or services consumed/used by consumers to produce output in the form of health. the demand is the level of immunization services, the level of bed occupancy, the number of dental poly services, the number of diagnostic tests, and so on. the determinants of demand for health services are price, patient income, patient preferences, and alternative goods (folland et al., 2012). health supply is procuring health services intended for consumers/patients by a combination of human resources for health services and physical health facilities (hospitals, clinics, and clinical laboratories). the determinants of health services include human resources, finance, materials, methods, markets, equipment, technology, time, and information. the production function describes the relationship between input and output currents at a certain time. health status is a production function of improving health services influenced by biological, environmental, and lifestyle characteristics. an improvement in one of these factors will shift the production function upwards. health services consist of many inputs. the marginal contribution of health care is its marginal product, meaning the amount of improvement in health performance caused by an additional unit of health services assuming ceteris paribus (janis, 2014). health services are one of the production factors in producing the output of healthy days. as a production function, health services can be combined with other inputs, such as environmental factors, socioeconomic culture, and individual internal factors in the production process, to produce health outputs (trisnantoro, 2006). the estimate of the average length of a person's life is defined as life expectancy (uhh). the indirect estimation approach is used to calculate life expectancy (uhh). life expectancy was obtained from live born children (alh) and living children (amh) data. based on the standards set by undp, the highest life expectancy value is 85 years, while the lowest life expectancy value is 20 years (bps statistics indonesia, 2019). ideally, uhh is accumulated based on the age-specific death rate. the data is sourced from the death registration, which is recorded periodically, making it easier to create a death table. however, this method cannot be implemented in indonesia because the population registration system in indonesia has not been implemented properly. therefore, the mortpak lite program is used in indonesia, which is an indirect method to calculate uhh. mortpak lite is a software released by undp for demographic measurement in developing countries that emphasizes mortality estimation. to obtain the indicator's constituent variables, other methods can obtain data, including a population census and an intercensus population survey (supas). population census and supas activities are carried out by the central statistics agency (bps statistics indonesia, 2019). uhh is a benchmark for countries and regions in determining whether or not the government's steps successfully improve people's welfare. the government's efforts through maximum support for public health can be seen in the development of uhh rindayati, hastuti, & asmara spatial mapping and determinants of health performance in north sumatra province jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 227 (wardhana et al., 2018; sambodo, 2018). in addition to determining the level of public health, the quality of life of people and health services organized through health development efforts are also illustrated by uhh (north sumatra health office (dinkes), 2019). uhh is a media that is used to analyze the government's performance, which generally seeks to improve public welfare and, in particular, the quality of health (bps statistics indonesia, 2019). health performance measurement is carried out by measuring mortality and morbidity rates, and life expectancy is information about mortality rates (notoadmodjo 2011). mahumud et al. (2013); ministry of health (2020), life expectancy is often used to plan and evaluate public health performance. research results from foreman et al. (2018) revealed that indonesia's life expectancy in 2040 is predicted to be 76.77 years to be ranked sixth in the southeast asian region and the highest position reached by singapore at 85.4 years. indonesia's life expectancy in 2015-2019 had a positive trend of 70.78 (2015), then rose to 71.34 (2019). the same trend occurs at the provincial level, but there are still many provinces whose performance is below the national level, 25 provinces (76%) out of 33 provinces, including all of sumatra island except riau province (figure 1). figure 1 life expectancy by province on sumatra island in 2015 – 2019 source: bps statistics indonesia (2021) north sumatra province has grdp at the highest position in sumatra and fifth place in indonesia, but the lowest health performance in sumatra during 2015-2019 (figure 2). this is not in line with the results of previous research, namely zaini (2013); ali et al. (2014) that per capita income is significantly positive with health performance as measured by life expectancy. rindayati, hastuti, & asmara spatial mapping and determinants of health performance in north sumatra province jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 228 figure 2 grdp at constant prices by the province in sumatra island in 2015 – 2019 source: bps statistics indonesia (2020) the hdi concept is measured by a three-dimensional approach, namely the health, education, and economic dimensions. regarding health dimensions, north sumatra province is below the national figure. based on national rankings, the life expectancy indicator has the lowest rank compared to education and economic dimension indicators (table 1). table 1 hdi indicators of north sumatra province and indonesia in 2019 hdi indicators north sumatra indonesia north sumatra ranking life expectancy (years) 68.95 71.34 24 expected length of school (years) 13.15 12.95 13 average length of school (years) 9.45 8.34 5 expenditure per capita (million rupiah) 10.65 11.30 18 hdi 71.74 71.92 12 source: bps – north sumatra (2019) in addition to being in the lower position, the life expectancy of north sumatra province based on the regency/city level shows inequality. in 2019, the highest number was 73.33 years in pematang siantar, and the lowest was 62.51 years in mandailing natal, with a difference of 10.82 years (figure 3 & figure 4). figure 3 demonstrates that from 2015 to 2019, the provincial life expectancy in sumatra was consistently lower than the national life expectancy, despite both seeing modest increases. in 2015, the life expectancy in north sumatra was 68.29, while the national life expectancy was 70.78. in 2019, the life expectancy in north sumatra was 68.95, while the national life expectancy was 71.34. rindayati, hastuti, & asmara spatial mapping and determinants of health performance in north sumatra province jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 229 figure 3 comparison of life expectancy trends in indonesia and north sumatra in 2015 – 2019 source: bps statistics indonesia (2021) figure 4 life expectancy by regency/city in north sumatra province in 2019 source: bps statistics indonesia (2021) figure 4 shows the unequal condition of life expectancy between districts and cities in north sumatra province, the highest figure is shown by pematang siantar, with a life expectancy of 74, while mandailing natal shows the smallest figure with a life expectancy of 64. life expectancy is influenced by local potential and local government policy efforts through its programs to improve health performance. in the era of regional autonomy, efforts to increase life expectancy are the direct responsibility of local governments at the regency/city level. the condition of the adjacent area influenced the business. rindayati, hastuti, & asmara spatial mapping and determinants of health performance in north sumatra province jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 230 differences in regional potential between regencies /cities in north sumatra province, both in terms of natural resources, human resources, and socioeconomic and cultural conditions, will affect health performance, according to the results of the studies by joumardi et al. (2008); paripurna et al. (2017); bilas et al. (2014); ali et al. (2016); kristanto et al. (2019). differences in conditions between development areas with four regional groups with different characters and structures can also be differences in health performance. differences in fiscal capability between districts /cities will also cause differences in existing development performance, according to the results of the studies are sari et al. (2019) and zaini (2013). the study analyzed the determinants of health development performance in north sumatra. some of the research that has been done is analyzed by panel regression analysis which assumes that the condition of the area is homogeneous without spatial heterogeneity. responding to the condition of the area, it is necessary to test spatial heterogeneity (spatial dependence), one of which is the breusch-pagan statistical test. spatial dependence testing is an effort to check whether test data at one location is correlated with tests in other places at a close distance. the following tests are important to carry out, considering that if ignored, the estimated results can be inefficient, so biased conclusions will be obtained (rahayu, 2017; perdana, 2015; pongoh et al. 2015; bruna & yu, 2013). the use of spatial analysis if the test results are met (rahayu, 2017; bruna & yu, 2013; mahumud et al. 2013; yu 2010; rahman et al., 2023; lymperopoulou & baniiister, 2022). based on background and problems, this study intends to map and analyze the determinants of health performance in each district/city of north sumatra province spatially. research method type and data resource this study used secondary data from panel data, namely cross-sectional data from 33 districts/cities in north sumatra province, and time series data for nine years from 2010 to 2018. the data sources are from the central statistics agency (bps) and the north sumatra health office (dinkes). research variables the variables used in the study were life expectancy (uhh) as a dependent variable and seven independent variables, namely grdp per capita, government spending in the health sector, expected length of the school, proper sanitation, health facilities, human health resources, and immunization coverage. the data are presented in table 2. rindayati, hastuti, & asmara spatial mapping and determinants of health performance in north sumatra province jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 231 table 2 variables, units, and sources used in research method analysis to analyze the determinants of health performance in each regency/city of north sumatra province, the analysis applied is the geographically weigthed panel regression (gwpr) which is a development of the geographically weigthed regression (gwr). gwr model parameter estimation was carried out using the weighted least square (wls) method by giving different weights to each observation location. the role of weights in the gwr model is significant because the values of these weights represent the location of the observation data with each other. estimation of gwr model parameters using the weighted least square (wls) method by providing different weights at each observation location. the role of weighting is to represent the observation data's location with each other. several weights can be used, including the distance inverse and kernel weighting functions. the weighting value of data will be close to one if the distance is close together or coincides and will get smaller if the distance is further away. the stages in the gwpr analysis are the first, estimate of the global panel regression model. the chow and hausman tests are carried out to get the best model. the best model will be obtained from these tests with fem or rem analysis. furthermore, dependency and heterogeneity tests were carried out using the breusch-pagan and pasaran's cd tests. if heterogeneity of the problem is found, it is followed by gwpr analysis by finding the optimal bandwidth and carrying out weighting with of adaptive bisquare, gaussian or exponential, followed by local analysis. the results of the local analysis are mapped spatially based on the equation of the determinant factors and based on regional development planning. the gwr model is in mathematically as follows: 𝑈𝐻𝐻𝑖𝑡 = 𝛼 ( 𝜇𝑖 , 𝑣𝑖 ) + 𝛽1(𝜇𝑖𝑡 , 𝑣𝑖𝑡 )𝐿𝑛 𝑃𝑑𝑟𝑏𝐾𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽2(𝜇𝑖𝑡 , 𝑣𝑖𝑡 ) 𝑃𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑒𝑛𝐾𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽3(𝜇𝑖𝑡 , 𝑣𝑖𝑡 ) 𝐻𝐿𝑆𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽4(𝜇𝑖𝑡 , 𝑣𝑖𝑡 )𝑆𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽5(𝜇𝑖𝑡 , 𝑣𝑖𝑡 ) 𝐹𝑎𝑠𝑘𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽6(𝜇𝑖𝑡 , 𝑣𝑖𝑡 ) 𝑆𝑑𝑚𝐾𝑒𝑠𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽7(𝜇𝑖𝑡 , 𝑣𝑖𝑡 ) imun𝑖𝑡 + 𝜀𝑖𝑡 where the notation means: 𝛽𝑗 : slope variabel (j = 1,2,…,9); 𝑖 : districts/cities (i=1, 2,…,33); 𝑡 : year (2012, 2013,…,2019); 𝜀 : error ; 𝑈𝐻𝐻 : life expectancy ; 𝑃𝑑𝑟𝑏𝐾 : income per capita; 𝑃𝑃𝐾𝑒𝑠 : government spending in the health sector ; 𝐻𝐿𝑆 : expected length of school ; 𝑆𝑎𝑛 : variable explanation unit source y life expectancy year bps x1 grdp per capita rupiah bps x2 government spending in health rupiah health office x3 expected length of school year bps x4 proper sanitation percent bps x5 health facilities unit health office x6 human health resources person health office x7 immunization coverage percent health office rindayati, hastuti, & asmara spatial mapping and determinants of health performance in north sumatra province jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 232 proper sanitation ; 𝐹𝑎𝑠𝑘𝑒𝑠 : health facilities ; 𝑆𝑑𝑚𝐾𝑒𝑠 : human health resources ; 𝐼𝑚𝑢𝑛 : immunization coverage ; (𝜇𝑖 ,𝑣𝑖 ) : latitude dan longitude coordinates of the midpoint of a region all independent variables (life expectancy, income per capita, government spending in the health sector, expected length of school, proper sanitation, health facilities, human health resources, and immunization coverage) are hypothesized to positively affect the dependent variable, namely life expectancy. result and discussion determinants of health performance in each district/ city of north sumatra province first, a panel regression was performed with the global model. the selection of the best model was carried out using the hausman test. based on the hausman test that has been carried out, a decision was made to reject h0 with a probability value of 0.0004 < α (0.05), therefore it can be concluded that the model that should be chosen is the fem model rather than the rem model at a significant level of 5%. because the panel regression applied in gwpr modeling is the fem model with a within estimation, it is necessary to make data transformations according to the concept of within estimation. testing whether there is an inequality of variance in the regression model from the error of one test to another is carried out with the heteroscedasticity test. the breusch-pagan test is one of the statistical tests that can be applied in panel regression. based on these tests, the bp value is 36,488, and the p-value is 0.0000. the p-value of 0.0000 indicates a value less than the 1% significance level. this means that the assumption of homoscedasticity is unmet, so the resulting panel regression model detects heteroscedasticity problems. this shows the diversity of variance between observations, thus proving that the characteristics of health performance in north sumatra province in 2012 2019 have a spatial effect. handling this problem can be done through local modeling locally by examining existing spatial aspects, namely diversity between observation locations. with the fulfillment of spatial heterogeneity requirements, the analysis is continued to the gwpr model. the comparison between the global regression model and the gwpr model in terms of adjusted r-square, root mean square error (rmse), and akaike's information criteria (aic) values show that the gwpr model is superior to the global regression model. the gwpr model can explain 92.0% of uhh diversity, while the fem model can only explain uhh diversity with a percentage of 88.9%. in the gwpr model, the rmse value is lower than in the fem model, which is 0.116. furthermore, the aic value in the gwpr model is also lower than in the fem model, which shows the number -408.7. rindayati, hastuti, & asmara spatial mapping and determinants of health performance in north sumatra province jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 233 table 3 comparison of global regression models and gwpr models model adjusted r2 rmse aic global 0.8733600 0.1463164 -288.8813 gwpr 0.9200166 0.1164525 -408.7264 the estimation of the gwpr model starts by calculating the optimum bandwidth and spatial weighting matrix based on the kernel adaptive bisquare function. the optimum bandwidth value is the bandwidth value that results in a minimum cross validation value. table 4 shows that the optimum bandwidth obtained differs for each regency/city. table 4 optimum bandwith value by district /city of north sumatra province no district /city bandwith no district /city bandwith 1 nias 6.968483 18 serdang bedagai 7.93052 2 mandailing natal 7.835419 19 batu bara 8.000971 3 south tapanuli 6.084939 20 north padang lawas 6.502002 4 central tapanuli 4.787885 21 padang lawas 7.554855 5 north tapanuli 4.793856 22 south labuhanbatu 7.018423 6 toba samosir 5.873099 23 north labuanbatu 6.606328 7 labuhan batu 7.127665 24 north nias 7.320451 8 asahan 7.153187 25 west nias 7.469164 9 simalungun 6.992386 26 sibolga 5.098739 10 dairi 6.282515 27 tanjungbalai 7.798566 11 karo 6.973728 28 pematangsiantar 6.979519 12 deli serdang 7.986373 29 tebing tinggi 7.917501 13 langkat 8.428603 30 medan 8.335918 14 south nias 8.428603 31 binjai 8.203104 15 humbang hasundutan 4.984097 32 padangsidimpuan 6.326152 16 pakpak bharat 5.559963 33 gunungsitoli 6.930986 17 samosir 5.769207 figure 5 regional grouping based on significant variables that affect health performance in north sumatra province source: bps and north sumatra health office (dinkes) (2021) rindayati, hastuti, & asmara spatial mapping and determinants of health performance in north sumatra province jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 234 gwpr estimation was carried out at each location. the estimation results were local, meaning the 33 districts /cities analyzed in this study had different models. the grouping of districts /cities is based on significant variables. areas that are geographically close together tend to have similar characteristics. based on the results of the gwpr analysis, it can be seen that there is a tendency for variables to collect in a certain location. the districts/cities in north sumatra province are classified into 15 groups based on variables that significantly influence health performance. the grouping results are presented in figure 5. the first group where the significant variable positively affects health performance in the north sumatra region is only the income variable. only one area is included in this group, namely the dairi district. this finding is consistent with that of bilas et al. (2014); zaini (2013); delavari et al. (2016); paripurna et al. (2017). the second group where the variables significantly affect income and government spending in the health sector. only one area is included in this group, namely the pakpak barat district. the income variable has a positive effect; the government spending variable in the health sector often has a negative effect. the third group where the influential variables are income and education variable. this group comprises seven districts: deli serdang, langkat, padang lawas utara, labuhan batu selatan, medan city, and binjai city. the income variable has a positive effect, while the education variable has a negative effect. the fourth group was positively affected by income and negatively by health facilities. the area is included in the karo district. the fifth group where the variables that significantly influence are income and human health resources. income and human health resources have a positive effect on health performance. the areas included in these groups were the nias island, namely south nias, north nias, and gunung sitoli. this finding is consistent with that of zaini (2013); mukti (2013); nawawi (2012); khariza (2015), and kristanto et al. (2019). the sixth group where the variables that had a significant positive effect were income and immunization coverage. the area included in this group was samosir district. this finding is consistent with pongoh et al. (2015) and paripurna et al. (2017). there was just one humbang hasundutan district in the seventh group, where the variables with a substantial beneficial influence are income, government spending on health, and education. the income variable had a favorable effect on health performance, but government spending on health and education had a negative effect. in the eighth group, where the variable that has a significant positive effect are income, government spending on health, and proper sanitation, there was only one mandailing natal. the ninth group where the variable that had a significant positive effect was income, government spending on health, and human health resources were nias and west nias districts. the tenth group of variables that had a significant positive effect were income, education, and proper sanitation. these groups consist of the districts of tapanuli selatan, tapanuli tengah, tapanuli utara, sibolga, and padang sidempuan. income and rindayati, hastuti, & asmara spatial mapping and determinants of health performance in north sumatra province jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 235 proper sanitation variables have a positive effect, while education has a negative effect on health performance. the eleventh group where the variable with a significant positive effect is income, education, and immunization coverage. the area was labuhan batu and labuhan batu utara. the influence of income and immunization coverage were positive, while the education variable negatively affected health performance. the variables significantly affected the twelfth group were income, human health resources, and vaccine coverage. on health performance, income and vaccine coverage have a favorable effect, but human health resources have a negative effect. these consist of serdang bedagai, batu bara, and tebing tinggi districts. the variables affecting the thirteenth group include income, education, appropriate sanitation, and immunization. only one area was included in this group, namely toba samosir district. income, immunization, and proper sanitation variable have a positive effect, while education has a negative effect on health performance. the fourteen groups were the variable that significantly affected income, education, human health resources, and immunization coverage. these areas were asahan and tanjung balai districts. income and immunization coverage variables have a positive effect, while education and human health resources have a negative effect. the fifteenth category, where income, appropriate sanitation, human health resources, and vaccine coverage have substantial effects. the area are simalungun district and pematang siantar city. the income and immunization coverage variable has a positive effect, while the education and human health resources variable negatively affects health performance. the income variable has a significant positive effect on all 33 districts, the education variable has a positive and negative effect on 19 districts, the human health resources variable has a positive and negative effect on 12 districts, the immunization variable has a positive effect on 11 districts, the proper sanitation variable has positive on 9 districts, the government spending in the health sector variable has positive and negative on 5 districts, and the medical facility variable has positive on one district namely karo. determinants of health performance of north sumatra province according to development area in addition to being based on significant variables, the grouping of districts /cities in north sumatra province is classified based on regional development planning. based on the regional development planning, north sumatra province consists of 4 areas, namely: nias island area health performance in nias island is influenced by income, government spending in the health sector, and human health resources. based on the determinants, it can be said that health performance in this region is very similar between districts/cities. nias and west nias districts are affected by income, government spending in the health sector, and rindayati, hastuti, & asmara spatial mapping and determinants of health performance in north sumatra province jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 236 human health resources. health income and human resources affect south nias, north nias, and gunung sitoli districts. all districts on nias island are designated as underdeveloped areas in presidential regulation (perpres) number 63 of 2020 concerning the designation of underdeveloped regions for 2020-2040. improving the economy, namely people's income, increasing the government's participation in allocating the health sector budget, and equitable distribution of health workers to remote areas must be a priority to improve health performance on nias island. table 5 grouping of district /cities based on significant variables for the nias island area group significant variable district/city i x1, x2, x6 nias, west nias ii x1, x6 south nias, north nias, gunung sitoli west coast area income, education, and sanitation levels generally affect health performance in the west coast area. the scope of this area is divided into three groups based on the influencing variables. the first group is influenced by income, education, and sanitation: south tapanuli district, central tapanuli district, sibolga city, and padang sidempuan city. the second group consists of only one district, mandailing natal, where the variables that affect it are income, government spending in the health sector, and proper sanitation. the third group is influenced by income and education, namely padang lawas and north padang lawas district. table 6 grouping of district /cities based on significant variables for the west coast area group significant variables district/city i x1, x3, x4 south tapanuli, central tapanuli, sibolga, padang sidempuan ii x1, x2, x4 mandailing natal iii x1, x3 padang lawas and north padang lawas east coast area in the east coast area, the determinants of health performance are income, education, human health resources, and immunization. this area is divided into four groups based on the determinants of health performance. the first group is influenced by income, education, human health resources, and immunization variables: asahan district and tanjung balai city. the second group is influenced by income, education, and immunization variables, namely labuhanbatu and north labuhanbatu. the third group is influenced by income, human health resources, and immunization: serdang bedagai district, batu bara district, and tebing tinggi city. the fourth group is influenced by income and education variables, namely deli serdang district, langkat district, south labuhan batu district, medan city, and binjai city. rindayati, hastuti, & asmara spatial mapping and determinants of health performance in north sumatra province jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 237 table 7 grouping of districts/cities based on significant variables for the east coast area group significant variables district /city i x1, x3, x6, x7 asahan, tanjung balai ii x1, x3, x7 labuhanbatu, north labuhanbatu iii x1, x6, x7 serdang bedagai, batu bara, tebing tinggi iv x1, x3 deli serdang, langkat, south labuhanbatu, medan, binjai highland area the determinants of health performance in the highland area are different for each district/city, except for simalungun district and pematang siantar city, have similar health performance models due to income, proper sanitation, number of health facilities, and immunization coverage. for example, toba samosir district is influenced by four variables: income, education, number of health facilities, and immunization coverage. samosir district is only influenced by two variables, namely income and immunization coverage, while dairi district is only influenced by one variable, namely income. determinants of health performance in each district/city in the highland area can be seen in table 8. table 8 grouping of district /cities based on significant variables for the highland area group significant variables district/city i x1, x4, x6, x7 simalungun, pematang siantar ii x1, x3, x4, x7 toba samosir iii x1, x3, x4 north tapanuli iv x1, x2, x3 humbang hasundutan v x1, x5 karo vi x1, x2 pakpak bharat vii x1, x7 samosir viii x1 dairi conclusion the health performance of north sumatra province, as measured by life expectancy (uhh) indicators, shows an upward trend from 2015 to 2019, but is consistently behind the national average. in addition to underperformance, there was inequality amongst districts/cities, with pematang siantar district having the greatest performance (73.33) and mandailing natal having the lowest (62.51), a discrepancy of 10.82. this study attempts to analyze the determinants of north sumatra's health performance with the geographically weighted panel regression (gwpr) model, analysis in 33 districts/cities with a time series of 2012-2019. the results of the analysis showed that the determinants of health performance differed between districts/cities grouped into 15 groups based on influencing factors and four clusters based on the area of the development areas. rindayati, hastuti, & asmara spatial mapping and determinants of health performance in north sumatra province jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 238 the income variable has a significant positive effect on all 33 districts, the education variable has a positive and negative effect on 19 districts, the human health resources variable has a positive and negative effect on 12 districts, the immunization variable has a positive effect on 11 districts, the proper sanitation variable has positive on nine districts, the government spending in the health sector variable has positive and negative on five districts, and the medical facility variable has positive on one district namely karo. health performance determinants differ in each district/city of north sumatra province. in the nias island area, health performance is caused by income, government spending in the health sector, and the number of human health resources. in the west coast area, health performance is caused by income, government spending in the health sector, education, and proper sanitation. the east coast area is caused by income, education, the number of human health resources, and immunization coverage. the determinants of the highland area has differences between district/cities except for simalungun district and pematang siantar city, which have similar determinants of health performance. recommendation to improve the performance of health development in the province, it is necessary to carry out a spatial approach based on cluster equations and influencing factors. increased income, education, and human health resources must be prioritized in almost all district areas. the government of north sumatra needs to increase the development of health-oriented education. this can be done by promoting school health business activities (uks) so that people understand the importance of health from an early age. it is also necessary to collaborate with the communication and information sector through the dissemination of health information. the north sumatra provincial government is trying to increase the health sector budget, especially for activities that directly impact public health, to influence health performance in north sumatra province positively. the policies implemented to improve health performance in north sumatra province are not the same for each district/city. the community's economy needs to be improved by all district/city governments, which can be done through increasing the umkm sector and increasing regional investment, which is expected to create new jobs for the people. as an underdeveloped and remote area, there should be an increase in the equitable distribution of health workers on nias island. promotive health efforts in the form 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(2013). analisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi indikator derajat kesehatan dan strategi peningkatan pelayanan kesehatan di kabupaten bogor. thesis. bogor agricultural institute. https://sumut.bps.go.id/pressrelease/2020/03/02/717/indeks-pembangunan-manusia--ipm--sumatera-utara-pada-tahun-2019-mencapai-71-74.html https://sumut.bps.go.id/pressrelease/2020/03/02/717/indeks-pembangunan-manusia--ipm--sumatera-utara-pada-tahun-2019-mencapai-71-74.html microsoft word 08-handry _162-170_.doc jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 8, nomor 2, oktober 2007: 162-170 kebijakan inflation targeting: antisipasi krisis nilai tukar muhammad handry imansyah fakultas ekonomi universitas lambung mangkurat jalan brigjen h. hasan basri banjarmasin 70123 telp./fax. (0511) 330 4933, 757 4881 e-mail: handry50@yahoo.com abstract this paper examines workability of inflation targeting policy after one year and half of its application in indonesia, based on a method of descriptive analysis using macro-prudential indicators. in addition, non-parametric approach to earlier warning system of monitoring rupiah stability against the us dollar is also employed as a comparison. these two macro-prudential and non-parametric approaches may predict the probability of weakening the indonesian currency against usd. the results show unsatisfaction of the inflation targeting policy as a stabilizing instrument to control both inflation and rupiah movement against usd. this happens due to unsatisfaction of some prerequisites for conducting the policy, such as remaining weaknesses of financial institutions as indicated by the weakness of government regulation and control, significant off-shore loan or foreign debt and risky sudden stops from capital inflows (external domination). keywords: inflation targeting, monetary policy, capital flow pendahuluan kebijakan inflation targeting menjadi demikian populer setelah new zealand pertama kali mengadopsi kebijakan ini pada tahun 1989 dan berhasil menjaga tingkat inflasi yang rendah dan relatif stabil (hu, 2003). indonesia mulai menerapkan kebijakan inflation targeting sejak bulan juli 2005 setelah sistem kurs mengambang bebas sejak krisis keuangan 1997. namun, sejak tahun 2002 telah dilakukan wacana mengenai kebijakan ini sehingga publik dan kalangan akademis diharapkan sudah memahami bila sudah sampai saatnya untuk diterapkan. pada juli 2005 bank indonesia telah mengimplementasikan kerangka kerja kebijakan moneter yang baru dengan inflation targeting framework, yang mencakup empat elemen dasar (http://www.bi.go.id): 1. penggunaan suku bunga (disebut bi rate) sebagai reference rate dalam pengendalian moneter, sebagai pengganti sasaran operasional uang primer, 2. proses perumusan kebijakan moneter yang antisipatif, 3. strategi komunikasi yang lebih transparan, dan 4. penguatan koordinasi kebijakan dengan pemerintah. melihat berbagai keberhasilan di berbagai negara baik negara maju maupun negara emerging market, maka indonesia mengikuti pola tersebut. apalagi bank indonesia telah independen berdasarkan uu no. 23 bank kebijakan inflation targeting (muhammad handry imansyah) 163 indonesia 1999 yang kemudian diamendemen dengan uu no. 3 pada tahun 2004. tujuan tulisan ini mengkaji kebijakan moneter baru bi, inflation targeting, dalam masa transisi dan setahun setelah diterapkan apakah sudah mencapai sasaran seperti yang tercantum di dalam tujuan dan fungsi bank sentral. kedua, di dalam hal ini, evaluasi akan dilihat secara deskriptif mengenai seberapa jauh inflasi dapat dikendalikan, dan seberapa jauh mata uang rupiah stabil (tidak mengalami depresiasi yang besar) terhadap mata uang us dollar serta bagaimana stabilitas inflasi dan output. tinjauan pustaka dalam penelitian ini sebagai berikut; menurut hu (2003), manfaat inflation targeting dalam hal inflasi dan output ada 2: pertama, kebijakan ini memperbaiki kinerja inflasi dan output. kedua, kebijakan ini memperbaiki perkiraan inflasi dengan menurunkan ekspektasi inflasi sehingga lebih dapat diperkirakan. misalnya, neumann dan von hagen (2002) membandingkan negara-negara yang menggunakan inflation targeting dan yang non inflation targeting menemukan bahwa dengan inflation targeting akan menurunkan volatilitas inflasi, output dan tingkat bunga. motivasi pendekatan inflation targeting sangat bervariasi (bernanke and mishkin, 1997). beberapa negara seperti inggris dan swedia setelah runtuhnya sistem kurs tetap sehingga mencari sistem alternatif untuk kebijakan moneter mereka dengan kebijakan inflation targeting. sementara, kanada menggunakan inflation targeting karena kurang berhasilnya di dalam menggunakan pendekatan money targeting. namun, berbagai studi juga menemukan bahwa masih terdapatnya variasi inflasi dan output di 7 negara industri yang memakai inflation targeting (ball dan sheridan 2003). memang, dengan kebijakan inflation targeting ini, ada beberapa manfaat antara lain, kebijakan lebih transparan, kebijakan lebih koheren dan lebih akomodatif terhadap gejolak jangka pendek dan lebih luwes di dalam operasional (bernanke and mishkin, 1997). kadioğlu, özdemir dan yilmaz (2000) juga menambahkan bahwa kebijakan inflation targeting adalah instrumen yang lebih fleksibel untuk mencapai tujuan jangka menengah. dalam jangka panjang diyakini oleh banyak ekonom bahwa akan ada trade-off antara inflasi dan pengangguran sebagaimana kita kenal dengan kurva phillips (phillips, 1958; samuelson and solow, 1960; dikutip dari kadioğlu, özdemir dan yilmaz , 2000). kadioğlu, özdemir dan yilmaz (2000) menyatakan bahwa ada tiga kebijakan moneter yaitu exhange rate targeting, monetary targeting dan inflation targeting. exchange rate targeting adalah kebijakan moneter yang telah lama digunakan terutama untuk negara kecil yaitu dengan menerapkan kurs tetap. karena mudah dan sederhana maka kebijakan ini sangat populer. inflasi rendah karena dapat menjaga kurs dari transmisi impor barang sehingga harga barang impor relatif terjaga. sementara, monetary targeting adalah kebijakan moneter dengan menerapkan target agregat moneter atau jumlah uang beredar. kebijakan ini dapat mengirimkan tanda mengenai kondisi kebijakan moneter dan konsistensi kebijakan serta tujuan dari pembuat kebijakan. sedangkan inflation targeting adalah kebijakan moneter dengan tujuan untuk menjaga kestabilan harga. namun, goldstein (2002) menyatakan, di dalam penerapan inflation targeting ini akan menghasilkan kestabilan nilai tukar. inflation targeting bukannya tanpa syarat bila menginginkan keberhasilan di dalam penerapan kebijakan. mishkin (2004) menya jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 8, nomor 2, oktober 2007: 162 170 164 takan bahwa negara emerging market masih menghadapi beberapa permasalahan sebagai berikut: 1. lemahnya institusi fiskal 2. lemahnya institusi keuangan termasuk pengawasan dan peraturan kehati-hatian pemerintah 3. rendahnya kredibilitas institusi moneter 4. hutang dalam mata uang asing yang tinggi 5. rentannya sudden stops dari capital inflows (external domination). permasalahan tersebut di atas harus diatasi guna memberikan keberhasilan penerapan inflation targeting. tanpa menyelesaikan kelima permasalahan tersebut, maka kesuksesan suatu negara untuk menerapkan inflation targeting menjadi hal yang sulit diwujudkan. bank indonesia (http://www.bi.go.id) menjelaskan mengenai inflation targeting merupakan kebijakan moneter yang mengumumkan secara eksplisit perkiraan tingkat inflasi pada kurun waktu tertentu (6 bulan, 1 tahun dll). karakteristik lainnya adalah adanya komunikasi dengan publik sehingga publik mengetahui kebijakan apa saja untuk mencapai tujuan tersebut dan diharapkan terdapat akuntabilitas dan transparansi. yang menjadi dasar perhitungan inflasi adalah inflasi inti, yaitu inflasi yang dipengaruhi oleh faktor fundamental: 1. interaksi permintaan-penawaran 2. lingkungan eksternal: nilai tukar, harga komoditi internasional, inflasi mitra dagang 3. ekspektasi inflasi dari pedagang dan konsumen sementara itu, perhitungan dengan inflasi inti belum banyak dipahami oleh publik bahkan sebagian ekonom sendiri tidak dapat memahami perbedaan antara inflasi inti dan inflasi headline. hal ini, karena di negara sedang berkembang banyak sekali harga barang dan jasa yang masih diatur oleh pemerintah yang tidak melalui mekanisme pasar serta masih bergejolaknya harga bahan makanan yang dipengaruhi oleh musim. inflasi di dalam tulisan ini adalah mengacu pada inflasi headline, karena ketersediaan data inflasi inti hanya tersedia sejak diberlakukannya kebijakan inflation targeting. mishkin (1997) menyatakan bahwa tujuan kebijakan moneter sebagai berikut: 1. kesempatan kerja yang tinggi 2. pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tinggi 3. kestabilan harga 4. kestabilan tingkat bunga 5. kestabilan pasar uang 6. kestabilan pasar valuta asing setiap tujuan tersebut di atas dapat terjadi konflik, misalnya kestabilan harga yang diartikan sebagai inflasi yang rendah yang biasanya akan berakibat pada tingginya pengangguran. jadi diantara berbagai tujuan tersebut di atas, tentu harus ada yang menjadi prioritas untuk didahulukan. karena yang menjadi domain kebijakan moneter oleh bank sentral adalah tingkat bunga dan jumlah uang beredar atau sistem kurs. sementara sistem kurs tidak mungkin diubah terlalu sering dalam kurun waktu tertentu yang akan mengakibatkan tingginya ketidak pastian. misalnya sekarang ini indonesia menggunakan sistem kurs mengambang bebas. jadi yang paling mungkin dijadikan target adalah tingkat bunga atau agregat moneter, dan keduanya tidak dapat dilakukan secara bersama-sama, harus salah satu. karena pilihan diantara keduanya harus dibuat, maka yang harus dilihat adalah kriteria yang digunakan untuk memilih target. kriteria yang digunakan untuk memilih target adalah: kebijakan inflation targeting (muhammad handry imansyah) 165 1. dapat diukur 2. dapat dikontrol 3. dapat diperkirakan pengaruhnya terhadap tujuan mishkin (1998) menambahkan kebijakan tingkat bunga belum tentu lebih baik daripada kebijakan jumlah agregat moneter, karena sulit mengukur dan mengkontrol tingkat bunga riil. di dalam tulisan ini, penulis menggunakan analisis deskriptif dan indikator macroprudential serta pendekatan sistem peringatan dini non parametrik. sedangkan data yang digunakan adalah data publikasi dari situs bank indonesia (http://www.bi.go.id). sementara untuk data yang berbasis triwulanan seperti produk domestik bruto, dikonversikan ke dalam bulanan dengan membaginya secara rata-rata dari data triwulanan. sedangkan pertumbuhan produk domestik bruto (output) dari triwulanan menjadi bulanan dengan memakai angka pertumbuhan yang sama untuk bulan selama kurun waktu triwulan tersebut. pembahasan pemerintah (http://www.bi.go.id) telah menetapkan target inflasi pada 2005 dan 2006 adalah sebesar 5,5 persen dengan ±1 persen dan 5,0 persen dengan ± 1 persen. namun, kenyataannya pada tahun 2005, inflasi telah melampui target yaitu 17,11 persen (ihk). dari data inflasi, produk domestik bruto (pdb), bunga sertifikat bank indonesia (sbi) 1 bulan dan kurs rupiah terhadap usd sejak tahun 2000 sampai dengan juni 2005 yaitu kurun waktu sebelum digunakannya kebijakan inflation targeting oleh bank indonesia dan setelah penggunaan inflation targeting menunjukkan bahwa inflasi cenderung meningkat dan volatilitas juga meningkat. memang terlalu dini menganggap bahwa inflation targeting kurang berhasil. ada beberapa negara emerging market juga mengalami kenaikan inflasi seperti brazil, afrika selatan dan thailand setelah menerapkan inflation targeting. namun umumnya, kecenderungannya adalah menurun. namun, di sisi lain, terdapat peningkatan pertumbuhan produk domestik bruto (pdb). sementara, kurs rupiah terhadap usd juga secara rata-rata mengalami peningkatan walaupun volatilitasnya menurun. yang mengherankan adalah variabel tingkat bunga sbi 1 bulan, yaitu rata-ratanya relatif tidak banyak berubah, sementara volatilitasnya malah menurun. hal ini memberikan indikasi pada periode pascait, bank indonesia relatif lambat bereaksi untuk menaikkan suku bunga bi rate sebagai patokan pelaku pasar di dalam mengikuti lelang sbi. inilah mungkin yang menjadi salah satu pemicu meningkatnya inflasi selain memang berasal dari kenaikan barang dan jasa administered prices. lambatnya reaksi bank indonesia ini dapat dilihat dengan terdepresiasinya rupiah terhadap usd. karena tingkat bunga federal fund justru terus meningkat. (tabel 1) gambar 1 menunjukkan bahwa spread sbi 1 bulan dan federal fund secara riil meningkat. hal ini bila tidak diantisipasi dengan kebijakan yang tepat akan berakibat terjadinya capital outflow. dengan demikian, potensi terjadinya pelemahan rupiah terhadap usd sangat besar. ternyata memang pada akhir bulan agustus 2005 terjadi pelemahan yang sangat besar dari rupiah terhadap usd. sementara itu, tingkat inflasi domestik juga memiliki kecenderungan meningkat (gambar 2). harga minyak dunia yang terus meningkat pada awal 2005 membuat ekspektasi publik akan meningkatkan ekspektasi inflasi. hal ini tidak direspon secara tepat dan cepat oleh bank indonesia pada saat itu. padahal di dalam kebijakan inflation targeting adalah jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 8, nomor 2, oktober 2007: 162 170 166 bersifat forward looking. bila dikaitkan dengan kurs rupiah dengan usd akibat inflasi yang terus meningkat ini, maka kurs riil dapat dilihat pada gambar 3. hal ini berarti bahwa kurs nominal pada saat itu dapat dikatakan overvalued. inflasi sangat berperanan di dalam penentuan tingkat kurs riil. studi empiris terbaru dari taylor dan taylor (2004) mengenai purchasing power parity (ppp) menunjukkan, dalam jangka panjang perbedaan antara nilai tukar nominal dengan dengan nilai tukar riil tidak akan akan terlalu jauh. ini artinya, rupiah yang berada di kisaran 11 ribuan merupakan nilai yang memang pantas. apalagi, ppp cukup baik untuk menjelaskan di negara yang mengalami inflasi kronis dan akut seperti indonesia. nilai rupiah yang anjlok pada selasa, 29 agustus 2005 mencapai rp11 ribuan bukan hal yang mengagetkan, karena berbagai indikator saling mendukung menunjukkan adanya potensi akan terjadi pelemahan. yang menjadi pertanyaan adalah hanya: kapan waktunya dan apa pemicunya. namun, sayangnya kebijakan yang dilakukan beberapa bulan menjelang jatuhnya rupiah sangat konservatif dan hampir dapat dikatakan bi tidak mengantisipasi potensi risiko ini. padahal, salah satu tugas dan domain bi tabel 1. kinerja beberapa variabel ekonomi makro pra it dan pasca it inflasi (yoy)1 sbi-1m2 pertumbuhan pdb3 kurs rp/usd4 rata-rata pra it 7.76 11.94 4.76 9152.98 standard deviasi pra it 3.41 3.70 1.26 825.38 rata-rata pasca it* 13.65 11.62 5.16 9444.67 standard deviasi pasca it* 4.39 1.34 0.28 473.68 sumber: bank indonesia (http://www.bi.go.id) it=inflation targeting 1m=1 bulan *data pascait untuk indikator: 1 sampai bulan nopember 2006 2 sampai bulan oktober 2006 3 sampai bulan september 2006 4 sampai 28 desember 2006 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 ja n: 20 00 ju n: 20 00 n ov :2 00 0 a pr :2 00 1 se p: 20 01 fe b: 20 02 ju l: 20 02 d ec :2 00 2 m ay :2 00 3 o ct :2 00 3 m ar :2 00 4 a ug :2 00 4 ja n: 20 05 ju n: 20 05 n ov :2 00 5 gambar 1. spread sbi-fed fund riil -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 ja n: 20 00 ju n: 20 00 n ov :2 00 0 a pr :2 00 1 se p: 20 01 fe b: 20 02 ju l: 20 02 d ec :2 00 2 m ay :2 00 3 o ct :2 00 3 m ar :2 00 4 a ug :2 00 4 ja n: 20 05 ju n: 20 05 n ov :2 00 5 yoy ind inflat ion yoy us inflat ion spread indo-us menjelang krisis mini agustus 2005 gambar 2. inflasi (yoy) indonesia dan as kebijakan inflation targeting (muhammad handry imansyah) 167 adalah menjaga rupiah. hal ini ditunjukkan dengan terlalu lambannya bi menaikkan suku bunga sbi, sementara suku bunga the fed terus meningkat. memang, di satu sisi bila tingkat bunga dinaikkan terlalu cepat akan menghambat sektor riil untuk berkembang. namun kelebihan likuiditas di pasar memiliki potensi untuk terjadinya inflasi dan pelemahan rupiah. hal ini ditunjukan oleh gambar 4. rasio m2 terhadap cadangan devisa meningkat dengan cepat pada awal tahun 2005. hal ini menunjukkan kelebihan likuiditas di pasar sehingga para pelaku pasar yang memahami hal ini memanfaatkan dengan mengkonversikannya ke dalam mata uang usd untuk menghindari turunnya aset mereka (flight to quality) di sisi rasio penyaluran kredit terhadap pdb juga peningkatan yang cukup signifikan. terjadi trend yang meningkat terhadap rasio ini. hal ini memberikan indikasi pertumbuhan kredit mungkin tidak tersalur ke sektor riil sehingga tidak menyebabkan pertumbuhan ekonomi. gambar 6 menunjukkan fenomena ini. sedangkan, pertumbuhan kredit properti juga sangat tinggi di atas pertumbuhan total kredit (gambar 7) apalagi bila dilihat pertumbuhan indeks harga saham gabungan (ihsg) jakarta meningkat sangat fantastik. menjelang terjadi7.000 8.000 9.000 10.000 11.000 12.000 13.000 ja n: 20 00 ju l:2 00 0 ja n: 20 01 ju l:2 00 1 ja n: 20 02 ju l:2 00 2 ja n: 20 03 ju l:2 00 3 ja n: 20 04 ju l:2 00 4 ja n: 20 05 r p /u s d riil nominal gambar 3. nilai tukar riil dan nominal gambar 4 rasio m2 -cadangan devisa 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 ja n: 20 00 ju l:2 00 0 ja n: 20 01 ju l:2 00 1 ja n: 20 02 ju l:2 00 2 ja n: 20 03 ju l:2 00 3 ja n: 20 04 ju l:2 00 4 ja n: 20 05 ju l:2 00 5 ja n: 20 06 menjelang krisis mini agustus 2005 2 2,5 3 3,5 4 ja n: 20 00 ju l:2 00 0 ja n: 20 01 ju l:2 00 1 ja n: 20 02 ju l:2 00 2 ja n: 20 03 ju l:2 00 3 ja n: 20 04 ju l:2 00 4 ja n: 20 05 ju l:2 00 5 ja n: 20 06 menjelang krisis mini agustus 2005 gambar 4 rasio m2 -cadangan devisa -5,00 0,00 5,00 10,00 15,00 ja n fe b m ar a pr m ay ju n ju l a ug se p o ct n ov d ec ja n fe b m ar a pr m ay ju n ju l a ug se p o ct n ov d ec ja n fe b m ar a pr m ay ju n ju l a ug se p o ct n ov d ec ja n fe b m ar a pr m ay ju n ju l a ug se p o ct n ov d ec ja n fe b m ar a pr m ay ju n ju l a ug se p o ct n ov d ec ja n fe b m ar a pr m ay ju n 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 gambar 5. bunga riil sbi-1m 0,15 0,16 0,17 0,18 0,19 0,20 0,21 q 1 q 2 q 3 q 4 q 1 q 2 q 3 q 4 q 1 q 2 q 3 q 4 q 1 q 2 q 3 q 4 q 1 q 2 q 3 q 4 q 1 q 2 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 gambar 6. rasio kredit dan pdb jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 8, nomor 2, oktober 2007: 162 170 168 nya krisis mini 2005, pertumbuhan ihsg hampir mencapai 80 persen. hal ini sering terjadi menjelang krisis keuangan (gambar 8). dari berbagai indikator macroprudential sederhana saja, sebenarnya dapat dilihat resiko pelemahan rupiah terhadap usd, apalagi inflasi pada saat itu tidak dijaga dengan baik pada tahap dimulainya kebijakan inflation targeting. -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% ja n fe b m ar a pr m ay ju n ju l a ug se p o ct n ov d ec ja n fe b m ar a pr m ay ju n ju l a ug se p o ct n ov d ec ja n fe b m ar a pr m ay ju n ju l a ug se p o ct n ov d ec ja n fe b m ar a pr 2002 2003 2004 2005 property total credit gambar 7. pertumbuhan kredit properti dan total -0,60 -0,40 -0,20 0,00 0,20 0,40 0,60 0,80 1,00 1,20 20 00 :0 1 20 00 :0 6 20 00 :1 1 20 01 :0 4 20 01 :0 9 20 02 :0 2 20 02 :0 7 20 02 :1 2 20 03 :0 5 20 03 :1 0 20 04 :0 3 20 04 :0 8 20 05 :0 1 20 05 :0 6 gambar 8. pertumbuhan ihsg (y-o-y) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% p ro ba bi lit as periode prakrisis probabilitas krisis 1978 krisis 1983 krisis 1986 krisis 1997 krisis kecil agustus 2005? gambar 9. probabilitas krisis 1971-2004 kebijakan inflation targeting (muhammad handry imansyah) 169 bila merujuk hasil pengembangan sistem peringatan dini yang salah satunya dengan pendekatan non parametrik oleh imansyah dan kusdarjito (2005)1, maka resiko pelemahan rupiah terhadap usd sangatlah tinggi. hal ini dapat dilihat pada gambar 9. tampaklah bahwa probabilitas akan terjadinya krisis di dalam 24 bulan setelah awal tahun 2004 cukup tinggi, signal peringatan dini telah menyala yang memberikan tanda adanya gangguan terhadap perekonomian. indikator-indikator dini yang memberikan tanda adalah harga minyak dunia, defisit fiskal, rasio tingkat bunga kredit dengan simpanan, rasio investasi terhadap pdb dan tingkat pertumbuhan riil pdb. defisit berkaitan dengan harga minyak dunia yang semakin meningkat sehingga meningkatkan pengeluaran untuk subsidi (defisit fiskal). selain itu, rasio investasi yang tak meningkat akibat masih kurang kondusifnya keamanan dan masalah perburuhan. salah satu tujuan inflation targeting framework adalah pengendalian tingkat inflasi supaya lebih dapat ditekan sehingga pada gilirannya akan memperkuat dan menstabilkan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap usd. karena salah satu domain kebijakan moneter adalah kestabilan harga dan nilai rupiah. namun, ada beberapa persyaratan belum dapat dipenuhi sepenuhnya untuk menerapkan inflation targeting. yang paling dominan menghambat penerapan inflation targeting adalah mengenai lemahnya institusi keuangan termasuk pengawasan dan peraturan kehatihatian pemerintah, hutang dalam mata uang asing yang masih relatif besar dan rentannya sudden stops dari capital inflows (dominasi external). tingginya capital inflow dalam investasi portofolio saham dan surat utang 1 untuk lebih detil mengenai metodologi dan hasil-hasilnya, lihat imansyah dan kusdajito (2005) negara memberikan resiko terjadinya sudden stops. untuk itu, berbagai hambatan tersebut harus dibenahi untuk memungkinkan bekerjanya kebijakan inflation targeting secara optimal. kesimpulan setelah berjalan hampir setahun setengah, dari sisi kinerja inflasi masih belum memuaskan, karena justru rata-rata inflasi malah meningkat pada kurun waktu pascapenerapan kebijakan inflation targeting dibandingkan dengan kurun waktu pra penerapan inflation targeting. demikian juga kurs nilai tukar rupiah terhadap usd secara rata-rata melemah pascapenerapan inflation targeting. penerapan sebuah kebijakan memerlukan berbagai persyaratan yang harus dipenuhi supaya kebijakan tersebut dapat bekerja optimal. kebijakan inflation targeting yang dijalankan oleh bank indonesia sejak juli 2005 dengan masa transisi yang cukup ternyata belum dapat menghasilkan hasil optimal sebagaimana yang diharapkan. memang sangatlah prematur bila menyatakan kebijakan inflation targeting ini tidak tepat, sebab persyarat untuk bekerjanya kebijakan tersebut secara umum belum dapat dipenuhi. daftar pustaka bank indonesia. paket b inflation targeting. http://www.bi.go.id. benigno, pierpaolo and michael, woodford. 2006. optimal inflation targeting under alternatif regimes. nber working papers 12158. http://www.nber.org. bernanke, ben s and frederic, s., mishkin. 1997. inflation targeting: a new jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 8, nomor 2, oktober 2007: 162 170 170 framework for monetary policy?, nber working papers 5893. http://www.nber. org. fraga, arminio., ilan, goldfajn and andre, minela. 2003. inflation targeting in emerging market economies. nber working papers 10019. http://www. nber.org. goldstein, moris. 2002. managed float plus. peter g. peterson institute for international economics. http://www.petersoninstitute. org. hu, yian. 2003. empirical investigations of inflation targeting. working paper wp03-6. institute for internattional economics. http://www.iie.com. imansyah, m. handry dan c, kusdarjito. 2005. pengembangan sistem peringatan dini bagi krisis di indonesia: mencari bentuk pemodelan yang tepat. academic seminar 2005 jakarta: bank indonesia pascasarjana ilmu ekonomi fakultas ekonomi universitas indonesia 16-17 november 2005. kadioglu, ferya., nilufer, ozddemir and gokhan, yilmaz. 2000. inflation targeting in developing countries. discussion paper september. the central bank of the republic of turkey. research department. mishkin, frederic, s. 1998. the economics of money, banking, and financial markets. international student edition. fifth edition. london: addison wesley longman inc. mishkin, frederic, s. 2004. can inflation targeting work in emerging markets countries? nber working papers 10646. http://www.nber.org. petursson, thorarrin, g. 2000. exchange rate or inflation targeting in monetary policy? monetary bulletin no 1. studi efektivitas pelayanan publik di kecamatan kejaksan kota cirebon jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 44 55 pertumbuhan ekonomi indonesia: determinan dan prospeknya ahmad ma’ruf 1 dan latri wihastuti 2 1 fakultas ekonomi universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta jalan lingkar selatan, tamantirto, kasihan, bantul, yogyakarta, telp/fax. 0274-387656 psw 184, 387646 e-mail: macrov_jogja@yahoo.com 2 institute of public policy and economic studies (inspect) jalan kenari r-13 sidoarum iii godean sleman yogyakarta 55564 di yogyakarta ph: 0274-798342 abstrak: penelitian ini menganalisis pengaruh pengeluaran pemerintah dan beberapa variabel lain yang mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi jangka panjang pada tingkat provinsi di indonesia. penelitian ini menggunakan analisis data panel yang terdiri dari 26 provinsi selama kurun waktu 1980 sampai 2006. data yang digunakan telah melalui uji stasioneritas dengan menggunakan uji augmented dickey fuller (adf) – fisher untuk data panel yang dianjurkan oleh madalla dan wu (1999). hasilnya, data stasioner pada tingkat first difference. penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa koefisien pengeluaran pemerintah riil adalah positif signifikan. artinya pengeluaran pemerintah memiliki peranan penting dalam meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi di indonesia. penelitian ini menganalisis pengaruh pengeluaran pemerintah secara agregat. kata kunci: data panel, pengeluaran pemerintah, pertumbuhan ekonomi, uji akar unit abstract: this study analyzes the influence of government expenditure and some other variables that affect the long-term economic growth at provincial level in indonesia. this study uses panel data analysis which consists of 26 provinces during the period 1980-2006. data used has been through stasioneritas tests using augmented dickey fuller test (adf) fisher for panel data suggested by madalla and wu (1999). the result, stationary data on the first level of difference. this study shows that the coefficient of real government spending is significantly positive. this means that government expenditure has an important role in improving economic growth in indonesia. pengeluaran pemerintah secara agregat. keywords: panel data, government expenditure, economic growth, unit root test pendahuluan pertumbuhan ekonomi sebagai sebuah proses peningkatan output dari waktu ke waktu menjadi indikator penting untuk mengukur keberhasilan pembangunan suatu negara (todaro, 2005). oleh karena itu identifikasi berbagai macam faktor yang mempengaruhinya termasuk peran pemerintah menjadi menarik untuk dikaji lebih dalam. menurut teori dasar pertumbuhan ekonomi neoklasik dari solow dan swan (1956) tidak terdapat pengaruh peran pemerintah terhadap pertumbuhan baik dalam bentuk pengeluaran maupun pajak (kneller et al., 1999). pertumbuhan ekonomi hanya dipengaruhi oleh stok kapital, tenaga kerja dan teknologi yang bersifat eksogen. pemerintah dapat mempepertumbuhan ekonomi indonesia ... (ahmad ma’ruf dan latri wihastuti) 45 ngaruhi pertumbuhan populasi yang akan mempengaruhi ketersediaan tenaga kerja namun tidak berdampak pada pertumbuhan ekonomi. teori pertumbuhan endogen (endogeneous growth theory) menjelaskan bahwa investasi pada modal fisik dan modal manusia berperan dalam menentukan pertumbuhan ekonomi jangka panjang. kontribusi pemerintah terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi dapat dijelaskan melalui pengaruhnya dalam melakukan perubahan konsumsi atau pengeluaran untuk investasi publik dan penerimaan dari pajak. kelompok teori ini juga menganggap bahwa keberadan infrastruktur, hukum dan peraturan, stabilitas politik, kebijakan pemerintah, birokrasi, dan dasar tukar internasional sebagai faktor penting yang juga mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi. pengeluaran pemerintah sebagai bentuk nyata dari campur tangan pemerintah dalam perekonomian telah menjadi objek penting untuk diteliti. penelitian terhadap negara di asia di antaranya dilakukan oleh cheng (1997). dengan pendekatan vector autoregressive (var) cheng membuktikan adanya pengaruh positif signifikan antara pengeluaran pemerintah terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di korea selatan. penelitian lain yang juga menunjukkan bahwa ekspansi pengeluaran pemerintah berpengaruh positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi antara lain ditemukan oleh singh dan sahni (1984) dan ram (1986). di sisi lain terdapat pula penelitian yang menunjukkan signifikansi hubungan kedua variabel tersebut namun dengan pola hubungan yang cenderung negatif. penelitian tersebut antara lain dilakukan oleh landau (1986) dan russek (1990). di indonesia sektor pemerintah memiliki peranan besar dalam sejarah perekonomian. peran tersebut dituangkan pemerintah dalam bentuk pelaksanaan kebijakan fiskal untuk mencapai tujuan utama pembangunan berupa pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tinggi, mengurangi pengangguran dan mengendalikan inflasi. kebijakan fiskal yang dijalankan pemerintah indonesia memiliki dua instrumen utama yaitu perpajakan dan pengeluaran. pengeluaran pemerintah sebagai salah satu instrumen penting kebijakan fiskal diharapkan mampu mendorong kegiatan ekonomi dan meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi. pemerintah mengoptimalkan peran tersebut dengan meningkatkan pengeluaran (share) terhadap pendapatan domestik bruto (pdb). secara riil pengeluaran pemerintah juga meningkat sejalan dengan peningkatan produk domestik bruto (pdb). peran pemerintah dalam perekonomian ditunjukan oleh pengeluaran untuk bidang ekonomi dalam persentase dari total pengeluaran cenderung meningkat. pengeluaran pemerintah sebagai salah satu instrumen kebijakan fiskal merupakan salah satu sumber pertumbuhan ekonomi. beberapa pertanyaan penelitian yang akan dijawab adalah apakah pertumbuhan ekonomi periode sebelumnya mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi periode berikutnya secara signifikan? apakah pengeluaran pemerintah provinsi mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi provinsi secara signifikan? apakah openness mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi provinsi secara signifikan? apakah populasi mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi provinsi secara signifikan? penelitian ini ditujukan untuk menganalisis pengaruh pengeluaran pemerintah dan variabel lainnya (defisit anggaran, openness, inflasi, dan populasi) terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. sementara itu, manfaat penelitian ini diharapkan dapat menambah literatur di bidang ekonomi publik dan sebagai referensi jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 44 55 46 penelitian selanjutnya, serta memberi masukan dan informasi bagi pemerintah sebagai pengambil kebijakan dan semua pihak yang tertarik dengan kajian pengaruh anggaran pemerintah terutama pengeluaran terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi tinjauan pustaka dalam penelitian ini sebagai berikut: pertumbuhan ekonomi merupakan salah satu indikator keberhasilan pembangunan di suatu perekonomian. kesejahteraan dan kemajuan suatu perekonomian ditentukan oleh besarnya pertumbuhan yang ditunjukkan oleh perubahan output nasional. adanya perubahan output dalam perekonomian merupakan analisis ekonomi jangka pendek. menurut adam smith pemerintah memiliki tiga fungsi utama dalam mendukung perekonomian yaitu (1) memelihara keamanan dalam negeri dan pertahanan; (2) menyelenggarakan peradilan; dan (3) menyediakan barang-barang yang tidak disediakan oleh pihak swasta, seperti infrastruktur dan fasilitas umum. pemerintah membutuhkan anggaran untuk menyelenggarakan fungsinya dengan baik dan mekanisme penyelenggaraannya anggaran tersebut dilakukan melalui kebijakan fiskal. kebijakan fiskal mencerminkan besaran, pertumbuhan, maupun struktur dari anggaran pemerintah yang dianut oleh suatu negara. menurut todaro dalam pertumbuhan ekonomi suatu bangsa terdapat tiga komponen penentu utama yaitu: (i) akumulasi modal yang meliputi semua bentuk atau jenis investasi baru yang ditanamkan pada tanah, peralatan fisik, dan sumberdaya manusia; (ii) pertumbuhan penduduk yang meningkatkan jumlah angkatan kerja di tahun-tahun mendatang; (iii) kemajuan teknologi. menurut kuznets pertumbuhan ekonomi adalah kenaikan kapasitas dalam jangka panjang dari suatu negara untuk menyediakan berbagai barang ekonomi kepada penduduknya. kenaikan kapasitas itu sendiri terjadi oleh adanya kemajuan atau penyesuaian-penyesuaian teknologi, kelembagaan dan ideologis terhadap berbagai tuntutan keadaan yang ada. secara umum teori pertumbuhan ekonomi dapat dikelompokkan menjadi dua, yaitu teori pertumbuhan ekonomi klasik dan teori pertumbuhan ekonomi modern. pada teori pertumbuhan ekonomi klasik, analisis didasarkan pada kepercayaan akan efektivitas mekanisme pasar bebas. teori ekonomi klasik merupakan teori yang dicetuskan oleh para ahli ekonomi yang hidup pada abad 18 hingga awal abad 20. para ekonom klasik tersebut antara lain adam smith, david ricardo dan w.a lewis. teori lain yang menjelaskan pertumbuhan ekonomi adalah teori pertumbuhan ekonomi modern. karakteristik umum teori ini mengakui pentingnya peran pemerintah dalam perekonomian untuk mengatasi kegagalan sistem pasar bebas. kelompok ini cenderung tidak mengakui keefektifan sistem pasar bebas tanpa campur tangan pemerintah. teori pertumbuhan ekonomi harrorddomar merupakan salah satu teori pertumbuhan modern. harrod-domar merupakan perkembangan langsung dari teori makro keynes jangka pendek menjadi teori makro jangka panjang. menurut kedua ekonom ini, pengeluaran investasi (i) tidak hanya memiliki pengaruh terhadap permintaan agregat (ad) tetapi juga terhadap penawaran agregat (as) melalui pengaruhnya terhadap kapasitas produksi. dalam perspektif yang lebih panjang ini investasi menambah stok kapital (k). harrod-domar mengatakan bahwa setiap penambahan stok kapital masyarakat meningkatkan kemampuan masyarakat untuk menghasilkan output. output yang dimaksud adalah output potensial yang bisa pertumbuhan ekonomi indonesia ... (ahmad ma’ruf dan latri wihastuti) 47 dihasilkan dengan stok kapital yang ada. sedangkan output yang terealisir belum tentu sama dengan output potensial, hal ini tergantung pada jumlah permintaan agregat. kebijakan fiskal adalah kebijakan pemerintah sehubungan dengan tingkat pembelian pemerintah, transfer dan struktur pajak. kebijakan fiskal juga dapat dipahami sebagai kebijakan ekonomi yang dilakukan oleh pemerintah melalui merubah-rubah (menaikkan atau menurunkan) penerimaan negara dan atau pengeluaran negara dalam rangka mencapai tujuan tertentu. ruang lingkup kebijakan yaitu pada sektor pengeluaran pemerintah dan penerimaan pajak sehingga disebut juga sebagai kebijakan anggaran. secara umum tujuan dari kebijakan fiskal yang ingin dicapai antara lain: peningkatan pendapatan nasional, peningkatan kesempatan kerja, penurunan laju inflasi, penurunan defisit neraca perdagangan, penurunan defisit neraca pembayaran internasional kebijakan fiskal memiliki 3 fungsi utama, yaitu: a) fungsi alokasi yang berupa penyediaan barang sosial atau proses pembagian keseluruhan sumberdaya untuk digunakan sebagai barang pribadi dan barang sosial serta bagaimana komposisi barang sosial ditentukan, b) fungsi distribusi yakni penyesuaian terhadap distribusi pendapatan dan kekayaan untuk menjamin terpenuhinya apa yang dianggap oleh masyarakat sebagai suatu keadaan distribusi yang adil dan merata, dan c) fungsi stabilisasi sebagai suatu alat untuk mempertahankan tingkat kesempatan kerja yang tinggi, tingkat stabilitas yang semestinya, dan laju pertumbuhan yang tepat dengan memperhitungkan dampaknya terhadap perdagangan dan neraca pembayaran. besarnya pengeluaran pemerintah yang memberikan pengaruh positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi memiliki batas tertentu. pengeluaran pemerintah akan mendukung pertumbuhan ekonomi apabila pemerintah mampu menciptakan kondisi di mana besarnya share pengeluaran pemerintah terhadap tingkat output seluruhnya dapat digunakan untuk menyediakan barang publik yang digunakan sebagai input produksi yang kompetitif. wagner mencetuskan hipotesis umum mengenai hubungan jangka panjang yang positif antara pengeluaran pemerintah dengan pembangunan ekonomi berdasarkan pengamatan di negara-negara eropa, u.s. dan jepang. hipotesisnya menjelaskan bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi merupakan faktor fundamental yang menentukan pertumbuhan sektor publik termasuk pengeluaran dan konsumsi pemerintah. pernyataannya ini disebut law of expanding state activity atau hukum wagner. hubungan antara pengeluaran pemerintah dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi merupakan hal yang kompleks. dari hasil penelitian yang telah ada hingga saat ini, setidaknya dibutuhkan beberapa teori dan teknik ekonometri yang acceptable agar hasil penelitian tidak rancu (spurious). syarat ini membuat kajian maupun pembuktian hubungan kedua variabel ini terus berkembang dengan diikuti penggunaan teknik ekonometri terbaru agar hasilnya semakin mendekati kenyataan dan dapat digunakan untuk peramalan. penelitian yang tentang dampak kebijakan fiskal terutama pengeluaran pemerintah terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi selalu menjadi isu menarik di setiap periode waktu dan menghasilkan perdebatan. di satu pihak terdapat penelitian yang menyimpulkan bahwa dampak pengeluaran pemerintah terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi adalah positif. ram (1986) dengan menggunakan data time series dan cross country 115 negara menemukan bahwa konsumsi pemerintah yang tinggi jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 44 55 48 berkontribusi terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. penelitian lain menunjukkan adanya dampak negatif dari pengeluaran pemerintah terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi seperti yang ditemukan oleh folster dan henrekson (1999) dalam nijkamp and poot: 2003. penelitian oleh sjoberg (2003) di swedia menunjukkan bahwa pengeluaran pemerintah yang terlalu banyak akan menghambat pertumbuhan ekonomi. dengan menggunakan model pertumbuhan endogen dan teknik ordinary least square (ols) penelitian ini menguji adanya hubungan yang signifikan antara pengeluaran pemerintah berupa investasi, konsumsi dan transfer pemerintah dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi. penelitian yang sama juga dilakukan oleh sinha (2000) di malaysia yang menguji hubungan antara pengeluaran pemerintah dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi. sinha menemukan hasil yang tidak signifikan. sementara itu beberapa penelitian tentang kebijakan fiskal dan pertumbuhan ekonomi dengan menggunakan teknik panel data menunjukkan hasil yang hampir sama. bania, gray dan stone (2007) mencoba mengukur nonlinearitas dampak penggunaan pajak untuk membiayai pengeluaran pemerintah produktif seperti kesehatan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa dampak kenaikan pajak yang digunakan untuk membiayai pengeluaran pemerintah bersifat non-monotonic yaitu pada awalnya positif namun pada satu saat mengalami penurunan. penurunan ini terjadi karena adanya crowding out dari modal privat akibat beban pajak yang mengurangi pengembalian bersih dari modal privat. metode penelitian ini menggunakan data tahunan dari 26 provinsi di indonesia pada periode 1980 hingga 2006. penggunaan data panel pada penelitian ini diharapkan dapat menyajikan informasi lebih lengkap dan mampu menunjukkan hubungan yang lebih realistis karena jumlah observasi yang lebih banyak (nijkamp and poot, 2003). periode waktu yang dipilih diharapkan mampu mengakomodasi perubahan kebijakan yang signifikan terhadap penyusunan apbn yang berpengaruh terhadap besarnya pengeluaran pemerintah. sistem persamaan yang digunakan mengacu pada model yang dibentuk oleh miller dan russek (1993) tentang hubungan antara struktur fiskal dan pertumbuhan ekonomi. model akan dianalisis dengan metode regresi ekonometri data panel. model yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah: log(pdrbpct) = a1 + a2log(pdrbpct-1) + a3log(exct) + a4log(defct) + a5log(opnct) + a6log(infct) + a7log(popct) + a8dsda + a9dlok + a10ddes + ect. dimana: log(pdrbpct) = pendapatan domestik regional bruto perkapita riil log(pdrbpct-1) = pendapatan domestik regional bruto perkapita riil tahun sebelumnya log(exct) = pengeluaran pemerintah riil log(defct) = defisit anggaran pemerintah riil log(opnct) = derajat keterbukaan perekonomian riil log(infct) = inflasi log(popct) = populasi penduduk dsda = binary sumber daya alam dlok = binary lokasi ddes = dummy desentralisasi ect = error term pertumbuhan ekonomi indonesia ... (ahmad ma’ruf dan latri wihastuti) 49 analisis regresi yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah analisis data panel. data panel atau pooled data merupakan kombinasi antara data runtut waktu (time series) dan data silang tempat (cross section). menurut batalgi (2000), data panel mencakup dua dimensi, yaitu dimensi spasial dan dimensi temporal. dimensi spasial merupakan sekumpulan unit observasi keratlintang suatu variabel tertentu, sedangkan dimensi temporal merupakan sekumpulan unit observasi runtut waktu. uji statistik uji signifikansi variabel (uji t). pengujian ini dimaksudkan untuk mengukur signifikansi tiap variabel dalam model regresi. jika nilai tstatistik yang diperoleh melalui regresi secara signifikan jauh dari nilai nol, pada tingkat derajat signifikansi tertentu, maka variabel tersebut signifikan secara statistik. pengujian dapat dilakukan dengan dua sisi (two tailed) atau satu sisi (one tailed). pengujian dengan dua sisi adalah pengujian hipotesis yang akan menolak hipotesis nol, jika nilai statistik mempunyai perbedaan nyata lebih besar atau lebih kecil dari parameter populasi yang dijadikan hipotesis. uji signifikansi serentak (uji f). f ststistik digunakan untuk mengukur signifikansi variabel secara serentak dalam sebuah model. gagasan dari pengujian ini adalah jika nilai f statistik cukup besar, artinya apa yang dijelaskan lebih besar daripada apa yang tidak dapat dijelaskan dalam model, maka h0 ditolak bahwa tidak ada variabel independen yang berpengaruh terhadap variabel dependen. uji koefisien determinasi r2. r2 dapat dilakukan setelah kita melakukan regresi. r2 mengukur proporsi dari total variasi dalam y yang dapat dijelaskan melalui hubungan linear antara y dan x dimana r2 terletak di antara 0 dan 1. uji pemilihan model keputusan penggunaan fem ataupun rem ditentukan dengan pertimbangan apabila diasumsikan bahwa εi dan variabel bebas x berkorelasi, maka fem lebih cocok untuk dipilih. sebaliknya, apabila εi dan variabel bebas x tidak berkorelasi, maka rem yang lebih baik untuk dipilih. beberapa pertimbangan yang dapat dijadikan panduan untuk memilih antara fem atau rem adalah (judge, dkk., 1985: 489–491): 1. bila t (banyaknya unit time series) besar sedangkan n (jumlah unit cross section) kecil, maka hasil fixed effect dan random effect tidak jauh berbeda sehingga dapat dipilih pendekatan yang lebih mudah untuk dihitung yaitu fixed effect model. 2. bila n besar dan t kecil, maka hasil estimasi kedua pendekatan akan berbeda jauh. jadi, apabila kita meyakini bahwa unit cross section yang kita pilih dalam penelitian diambil secara acak (random) maka random effect harus digunakan. sebaliknya, apabila kita meyakini bahwa unit cross section yang kita pilih dalam penelitian tidak diambil secara acak maka kita harus menggunakan fixed effect. 3. apabila komponen error individual εi berkorelasi dengan variabel bebas x maka parameter yang diperoleh dengan random effect akan bias sementara parameter yang diperoleh dengan fixed effect tidak bias. 4. apabila n besar dan t kecil, dan apabila asumsi yang mendasari random effect dapat terpenuhi, maka random effect lebih efisien dibandingkan fixed effect. pertimbangan pemilihan model yang digunakan ini didekati dengan menggunakan statistik f yang berusaha memperbandingkan jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 44 55 50 antara nilai jumlah kuadrat dari error dari proses pendugaan dengan menggunakan metode kuadrat terkecil dan efek tetap yang telah memasukkan variabel boneka. selain itu, pemilihan model dengan pendekatan ini dengan uji lm bertujuan untuk memilih antara model pls dan rem. dengan uji ini akan diperoleh nilai lm hitung yang akan dibandingkan dengan χ2tabel . pemilihan penggunaan model ini berpedoman pada: a) nilai lm < χ2-tabel maka h0 ditolak, yang berarti model pls dipilih, dan b) nilai lm > χ2-tabel maka h1 tidak ditolak, yang berarti model rem dipilih. selain itu, dilakukan uji hausman digunakan dalam pemilihan antara model fem dan model rem. perbedaan antara keduanya adalah ada atau tidak adanya korelasi antara efek individual dengan variabel independennya. uji akar unit uji akar unit adalah pengujian terhadap serangkaian data di tahap awal yang bertujuan untuk mengetahui stationeritas data. data yang stasioner dibutuhkan agar hasil estimasi tidak bersifat lancung (suporious regression) (enders, 1995). hasil dan pembahasan hasil analisis data yang dimulai dengan uji stasioneritas untuk data panel yang dianjurkan oleh maddala dan wu (1999) adalah dengan mengunakan tes augmented dickey fuller-fisher (adf-fisher) dengan hasil sebagaimana diuraikan pada tabel 1. dari tabel 1 dapat dilihat bahwa semua variabel stationer pada derajat satu (first difference) dan signifikan pada α= 1% (0.01). tabel 1. hasil uji stasioneritas variabel variabel level first difference intersep intersep dan tren tanpa intersep dan tren intersep intersep dan tren tanpa intersep dan tren pdrbp 30.684 73.606 3.465 319.755*** 246.506*** 344.203*** 0.992 0.026** 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 pdrbp-1 348.079*** 288.081*** 370.994*** 500.607*** 411.388*** 677.214*** 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ex 32.898 42.167 11.581 309.471*** 257.786*** 445.231*** 0.982 0.833 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 def 210.348*** 148.829*** 206.169*** 423.679*** 363.772*** 594.744*** 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 opn 65.772* 111.336*** 41.915 512.495*** 425.404*** 700.433*** 0.095 0.000 0.840 0.000 0.000 0.000 inf 300.159*** 224.886*** 216.588*** 524.385*** 416.495*** 713.006*** 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 pop 29.16 52.14 16.33 348.55*** 287.90*** 151.25*** 0.995 0.468 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 ket.: *** = signifikan 1%, ** = signifikan 5%, * = signifikan 10% dari tabel tersebut dapat dilihat bahwa semua variabel stationer pada derajat satu (first difference) dan signifikan pada α= 1% (0.01). pertumbuhan ekonomi indonesia ... (ahmad ma’ruf dan latri wihastuti) 51 tabel 2. hasil estimasi var. independen nilai c koe 3.015*** se 0.276 t-stat 10.923 prob 0.000 log pdrbpct-1 koe 0.238*** se 0.022 t-stat 10.799 prob 0.000 log exct koe 0.227*** se 0.039 t-stat 5.771 prob 0.000 log defct koe 0.057*** se 0.016 t-stat 3.541 prob 0.000 log opnct koe 0.127*** se 0.013 t-stat 9.994 prob 0.000 log infct koe -0.046 se 0.030 t-stat -1.540 prob 0.124 log popct koe -0.368*** se 0.034 t-stat -10.766 prob 0.000 dsda koe 0.294*** se 0.054 t-stat 5.399 prob 0.000 ddes koe 0.319*** se 0.044 t-stat 7.238 prob 0.000 dlok koe 0.139* se 0.072 t-stat 1.919 prob 0.056 r2 0.767 adj r2 0.762 f-statistik 161.979 prob f-stat 0.000 durbin-waston 0.479 ket: *** = signifikan 1%, ** = signifikan 5%, * = signifikan 10% jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 44 55 52 hasil estimasi data panel pada model dengan jumlah observasi sebanyak 453 selama periode pengamatan 1980-2006 dapat dilihat pada tabel 2. estimasi ini memberikan dukungan empiris hubungan antara pertumbuhan ekonomi dengan pengeluaran pemerintah disertai beberapa variabel penting dalam perekonomian seperti inflasi, openness dan populasi. estimasi juga menyertakan variabel kontrol berupa dummy krisis, sumber daya alam, desentralisasi, dan lokasi. tabel 2 merupakan hasil estimasi dengan variabel dependen produk domestik regional bruto perkapita riil (log pdrbpct) perprovinsi. variabel (log pdrbct-1) mewakili pdrb perkapita riil perprovinsi tahun sebelumnya digunakan untuk menunjukkan kecepatan konvergen antardaerah. variabel ini menunjukkan hubungan positif signifikan pada semua model. artinya kecepatan konvergen yang tinggi akan mendorong kenaikan pdrb perkapita perprovinsi di indonesia. pada model estimasi dilakukan dengan menyertakan seluruh variabel fiskal, variabel kontrol dan variabel makro penting lainnya dalam model. hasilnya, seluruh variabel fiskal menunjukkan pengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan pdrb perkapita. defisit anggaran pemerintah provinsi (log defct) menunjukan pengaruh positif signifikan yang sejalan dengan hipotesis penelitian ini. kenaikan defisit pemerintah sebesar 1 persen akan meningkatkan pdrb perkapita rata-rata sebesar 0,057 persen. pengeluran pemerintah total (log exct) juga menunjukan pengaruh yang sama yaitu positif signifikan. koefisien regresi variabel ini menunjukan jika terjadi kenaikan pengeluaran pemerintah total sebesar 1 persen akan meningkatkan pdrb perkapita rata-rata sebesar 0,227 persen. variabel kontrol masing-masing menunjukkan hasil yang sama. pengaruh kepemilikan sumber daya alam (dsda) memberikan dampak positif, artinya provinsi dengan sumber daya alam berupa tambang memiliki pertumbuhan ekonomi yang lebih tinggi sebesar 0,29 persen. adanya desentralisasi (ddes) juga menyebabkan pertumbuhan ekonomi provinsi lebih tinggi sebesar 0,13 persen. perbedaan lokasi di pulau jawa dan luar jawa (dlok) juga menunjukkan hasil yang positif signifikan artinya provinsi yang berada di pulau jawa memiliki pertumbuhan ekonomi yang lebih tinggi sebesar 0,13 persen. variabel lainnya yaitu inflasi log(infct) dan populasi log(popct) masing-masing menunjukkan pengaruh yang negatif signifikan. sedangkan keterbukaan ekonomi (openness) log(opnct) menunjukkan pengaruh positif signifikan sebesar 0,127 persen. koefisien regresi masing-masing variabel menunjukan jika terjadi kenaikan inflasi sebesar 1 persen maka akan menurunkan pdrbp rata-rata sebesar 0,046 persen dan jika terjadi pertambahan penduduk sebesar 1 persen akan menurunkan pdrbp rata-rata sebesar 0,368 persen. dalam penelitian yang pernah ada keterbukaan ekonomi memberikan pengaruh positif terhadap pertumbuhan. perekonomian suatu negara yang terintegrasi dengan perekonomian global memiliki kesempatan yang lebih untuk memperluas pasar dan meningkatkan daya saing sehingga efisiensi tercapai. hal ini seperti yang ditemukan oleh dollar (1992) dalam eusufzai: 1996 yang meneliti 95 negara berkembang. penelitiannya menunjukkan bahwa negara-negara yang berorientasi keluar (outward-oriented) lebih cepat tumbuh dibandingkan negara yang berorientasi ke dalam (inward-oriented). perekonomian indonesia juga merupakan perekonomian pertumbuhan ekonomi indonesia ... (ahmad ma’ruf dan latri wihastuti) 53 yang terbuka, selama kepemimpinan orde baru perekonomian indonesia terintegrasi dengan dunia (thee, 2003) sehingga pengaruh kegiatan ekspor maupun impor merupakan salah satu pendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional. variabel inflasi berpengaruh negatif terhadap pertumbuhan pdrbp meskipun tidak signifikan. inflasi yang tinggi menirukan nilai riil uang. sejalan dengan penelitian miller dan russek (1993), levin dan renelt (1992) bahwa inflasi memberikan dampak negatif secara konsisten. variabel kontrol cenderung konsisten memberikan pengaruh positif terhadap pertumbuhan pdrb perkapita. variabel binary untuk sumber daya alam (dsda) menunjukkan hubungan yang positif signifikan, artinya ketersediaan sumber daya alam berupa tambang di suatu provinsi meningkatkan pdrb perkapita. provinsi dengan sumber daya tambang yang melimpah memiliki pdrb perkapita yang lebih besar. adanya kebijakan desentralisasi yang dimulai pada tahun 2001 juga mempengaruhi pertumbuhan pdrb perkapita. variabel dummy untuk desentralisasi (ddes) menunjukkan pengaruh yang postif di setiap model dan signifikan. kebijakan desentralisasi telah memberikan peluang dan kesempatan kepada masingmasing provinsi untuk menciptakan kebijakan yang dapat meningkatkan kesejahteraan masyarakat. wilayah kekuasaan yang lebih sempit dan penduduk yang lebih sedikit akan memudahkan pemerintah daerah untuk menentukan kebijakan yang tepat dan efektif dalam meningkakan pdrb perkpita masyarakatnya. perbedaan lokasi suatu provinsi ternyata juga mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi perkapita riil suatu provinsi. hal ini ditunjukan oleh variabel binary untuk lokasi (dlok) yang benilai positif meskipun tidak signifikan. hal ini mengindikasikan bahwa provinsi yang berada di pulau jawa cenderung lebih sejahtera dibandingkan dengan provinsi di luar jawa. pembangunan ekonomi yang tidak merata pada masa orde baru telah menciptakan kesenjangan infrastruktur dan fasilitas ekonomi diantara kedua wilayah tersebut (tambunan, 2001). selain faktor fisik, perbedaan tersebut juga disebabkan kualitas sumber daya manusia di pulau jawa jauh lebih baik, sehingga masyarakatnya memiliki kemampuan yang lebih baik untuk menciptakan karya. kesimpulan kesimpulan yang diperoleh dalam penelitian ini adalah variabel pdrb tahun sebelumnya memberikan dampak positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa kecepatan konvergen yang tinggi akan meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi. pengeluaran pemerintah memberikan dampak positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, demikian pula variabel openness, sumberdaya alam, lokasi, dan variabel desentralisasi memberikan dampak positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. sementara variabel populasi memberikan dampak negatif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa penduduk bukan angkatan kerja jumlahnya cukup besar sehingga menurunkan rata-rata produktivitas penduduk yang menjadi angkatan kerja yang berdampak negatif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. hal ini juga pada variabel inflasi memberikan dampak negatif. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa peran pemerintah dalam mengendalikan harga untuk jangka panjang tidak mampu mendukung pertumbuhan ekonomi, tetapi justru jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 44 55 54 sebaliknya dapat menghambat pertumbuhan ekonomi. penelitian ini mencoba untuk memberikan bahan masukan bagi pengambil kebijakan untuk menetapkan keputusan kebijakan di masa yang akan datang terkait dengan peran pengeluaran pemerintah terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. hasil positif signifikan dari koefisien variabel pengeluaran pemerintah menunjukan bahwa pemerintah masih berperan penting dalam mendukung pertumbuhan ekonomi di indonesia. hal ini perlu disikapi dengan keseriusan dari pemerintah untuk mengalokasikan pengeluarannya tersebut pada sektor dan proyek yang produktif. hasil penelitian ini masih bersifat agregat dan belum menganalisis hubungan kedua variabel tersebut secara lebih rinci. namun hasil penelitian ini diharapkan mampu memberikan bahan masukan bagi pengambil kebijakan dalam merancang pengeluran pemerintah untuk mendukung pertumbuhan ekonomi. diharapkan ada studi lebih jauh yaitu analisis peran kebijakan fiskal dalam pertumbuhan ekonomi yang memisahkan antara kebijakan fiskal untuk kepentingan produktif seperti investasi publik dan kepentingan yang tidak produktif seperti konsumsi rutin. daftar pustaka atkinson, anthony b and joseph e. stiglitz (1980). lectures on public economics. new york: mcgraw-hill badan pusat statistik. 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(2004). dasar-dasar keuangan publik. jakarta: tim penyusun badan pendidikan dan pelatihan keuangan depkeu. dwi sutatmi, bernadetta (2008). makro ekonomi indonesia: prospek ekonomi 2008 perkembangan terkini 2007. jakarta: lembaga penelitian ekonomi ibii farmer, r. (2002). macroeconomics, 2nd edition. south-western: thomson learning. grimes, arthur, (2003). economic growth and the size & structure of government: implications for new zealand, dept. of economics, university of waikato hyman, david, (2005). public finance: a contemporary application of theory to policy, 8th edition. south western: thomson kneller, richard, michael bleaney, and norman gemmell (1999). “fiscal policy and growth: evidence from oecd countries”. journal of public economics pertumbuhan ekonomi indonesia ... (ahmad ma’ruf dan latri wihastuti) 55 kuncoro, mudrajad, (2003). ekonomi pembangunan: teori, masalah dan kebijakan. yogyakarta: upp amp ykpn landau (1985). “government expenditure and economic growth: a crosscountry study”, southern economic journal loizides and vamvoukas, (2001). government “expenditure and economic growth: evidence from trivariate causality testing”, journal of applied economics maddala, g.s (2001). introduction to econometrics, 3th edition. england: john wiley & sons, ltd mankiw, n. gregory, (2005). macroeconomics, 6th edition, new york: worth publishers mangkoesoebroto, guritno, (2001). ekonomi publik, edisi ketiga. yogyakarta: bpfe miller and russek (1993). fiscal structures and economic growth: international evidence, working paper, university of connecticut. nijkamp, peter and jacques poot (2003). “meta-analysis of the impact of fiscal policies on long-run growth”, discussion paper ti2002-028/3 (march 2003 version), tinbergen institute; forthcoming in european journal of political economy. park (2006). expenditure composition and distortionary tax for equitable economic growth, working paper, international monetary fund. parkin, michael. (1993). macroeconomics, 2nd edition. united states of america: addison wesley publishing pevcin (2003). does optimal size of government spending exist?, university of ljubljana. ram (1986). “government size an economic growth: a new framework and some evidence from cross-section and timeseries data”, american economic review. rodrik, dani (1998). “why do more open economies have bigger government?”, journal of political economy rossen, harvey. s. (1999). public finance, 5th edition. new york: mcgraw-hill. seda, frans. (2004). kebijakan anggaran penerimaan & belanja negara (apbn) berimbang dan dinamis. dalam kebijakan fiskal: pemikiran, konsep & implementasi. (editor: heru subiyantoro, ph.d dan dr. singgih riphat, apu). jakarta: kompas. sjoberg, (2003). “government expenditure effect on economic growth the case of sweden 1960-2001”, working paper, world bank suparmoko, m (2002). ekonomi publik untuk keuangan & pembangunan daerah. yogyakarta: andi. singh and sahni (1984). “causality between public expenditure and national income”, review of economics and statistics sinha (2000). “government expenditure and economic growth in malaysia”, journal of economic development stiglitz, joseph.e. (2000). economics of the public sector, 3th edition. new york/ london: w.w. norton & company. tan (2003). “does wagner’s law or the keynesian paradigm hold in the case of malaysia”, thammasat review, university of malaya todaro, michael p. and smith, stephen c (2003). economic development. uk: pearson education limited. image (2).jpg image (3).jpg image (4).jpg image (5).jpg image (6).jpg image (7).jpg image (8).jpg image (10).jpg image (11).jpg image (12).jpg image (13).jpg image (14).jpg image (15).jpg image (16).jpg image (17).jpg image (18).jpg image (19).jpg image (20).jpg microsoft word 02-amar ma'aruf jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 11, nomor 1, april 2010, hlm.20-29   strategi pelayanan penanaman modal ahmad ma’ruf fakultas ekonomi universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta jalan lingkar selatan, tamantirto, kasihan, bantul, yogyakarta, indonesia, telepon:+62-274-387656 e-mail: macrov_jogja@yahoo.com abstract: in order to increase investment, required strong institution. one of the government's efforts to encourage improvement of an investment climate by creating integrated services in a door for investment. the study is aimed formulate a strategy of the service of capital investment, case studies in the office of the investment coordinating body (bkpm) yogyakarta special region (diy). the data that were used in the studies are primary and secondary data. the primary data obtained from the survey results, observations, depth interview and focus group discussion (fgd). engineering analysis using descriptive analysis and qualitative analysis had undertaken to formulate service strategies through the swot method. strategy formulation of the results of this study is a strategy for the creation of institutional and quality management system of the bkpm office of diy province; such as building a quality management system by carrying out the concept of total quality service (tqs) with certified quality management of the international standards organization (iso); develop institutional it-based services; develop strategic partnerships; improving public participation in monitoring and evaluation services. additionally, strategies are needed to encourage the development of human-resource capacity with competence base through the proactive way to send human resources at a certified training. keywords: public services, quality of service, institutional capacity, investment abstrak: dalam rangka meningkatkan investasi, diperlukan institusi yang kuat. salah satu usaha pemerintah mendorong peningkatan iklim investasi adalah dengan membuat pelayanan terpadu satu pintu (ptsp) untuk penanaman modal. studi ini bertujuan merumuskan strategi pelayanan penanaman modal, studi kasus di bkpm provinsi daerah istimewa yogyakarta (diy). data yang digunakan berupa data primer dan sekunder. data primer diperoleh dari hasil survei, pengamatan (observasi), indepth interview, dan focus group discussion (fgd). teknik analisis menggunakan analisis deskriptif (descriptive analysis) dan analisis kualitatif yang dilakukan untuk merumuskan strategi pelayanan menggunakan metode swot. rumusan strategi hasil studi ini adalah strategi penciptaan kelembagaan dan sistem manajemen mutu instansi bkpm provinsi diy, seperti membangun sistem manajemen mutu dengan mengimplementasikan konsep total quality service (tqs) dengan manajemen kualitas tersertifikasi international standards organization (iso); mengembangkan kelembagaan pelayanan berbasis it; mengembangkan kerjasama strategis; meningkatkan partisipasi publik dalam monitoring dan evaluasi pelayanan. selain itu, diperlukan strategi mendorong pengembangan kapasitas sdm berbasis kompetensi dengan cara proakif mengirimkan pada pelatihan-pelatihan bersertifikat. kata kunci: pelayanan publik, kualitas layanan, kapasitas kelembagaan, penanaman modal pendahuluan sejalan dengan kebijakan pemerintah dalam melaksanakan pembangunan yang mengarah ke desentralisasi, maka penyusunan perencanaan pembangunan di daerah hendaknya disesuaikan dengan potensi, kondisi dan kemampuan masing-masing daerah, di samping itu juga tidak terlepas dari undang-undang, perstrategi pelayanan penanaman modal (ahmad ma’ruf) 21 aturan pemerintah dan aturan-aturan tentang pelaksanaannya. pelaksanaan otonomi yang terkesan “setengah matang” menciptakan ketidakpastian dalam pengurusan perijinan dan non perijinan termasuk didalamnya yang berkaitan dengan biaya dan lamanya waktu berurusan dengan perijinan dan birokrasi. beberapa studi menunjukkan bahwa kebijakan otonomi daerah secara tidak langsung telah memperburuk iklim investasi (hofman, et al.,2003; smeru, 2001). kajian lpem-fe ui (2001) bahwa otonomi daerah justru meningkatkan biaya ketidakpastian berusaha. studi jetro (2005) juga menunjukkan bahwa salah satu permasalahan utama investasi adalah ketidakpastian dan ketidakjelasan kebijakan pemerintah dan rumitnya perpajakan dan prosedur. model pelayanan perijinan satu pintu (onestop service) yang dimulai tahun 2006 berdasarkan permendagri nomor: 24 tahun 2006 jonto permendagri no. 20 tahun 2008 diharapkan menjadi jawaban atas masalah perijinan ini. pemerintah juga membuat pelayanan terpadu satu pintu (ptsp) penanaman modal di daerah berdasarkan peraturan presidennomor: 27 tahun 2009 dan peraturan kepala bkpm nomor 11 sampai dengan 14 tahun 2009. ptsp di bidang penanaman modal bertujuan untuk membantu penanam modal dalam memperoleh kemudahan pelayanan perijinan dan non perijinan penanaman modal, fasilitas fiskal dan non fiskal, informasi mengenai penanaman modal, dengan cara mempercepat, menyederhanakan pelayanan, memudahkan dan meringankan atau menghilangkan biaya pengurusan perijinan dan non perijinan. pemerintah melakukan penyederhanaan penyelenggaraan pelayanan terpadu satu pintu adalah untuk mewujudkan pelayanan publik yang cepat, murah, mudah transparan pasti dan terjangkau. maksud dari studi ini adalah untuk merumuskan kebijakan strategik tentang pelayanan perijinan terpadu satu pintu penanaman modal, yang dalam studi ini di bkpm provinsi diy yang diharapkan mampu meningkatkan kinerja layanan ptsp penanaman modal dan dapat mendorong peningkatan iklim investasi dan iklim berusaha yang kondusif. sementara itu, tujuan studi ini adalah mengetahui kondisi kelembagaan pelayanan penanaman modal dalam aspek pelayanan publik, dan merumuskan kebijakan strategis dalam pelayanan penanaman modal yang memenuhi kriteria kualitas pelayanan publik. konsep pelayanan publik. secara umum, pelayanan publik (public services) diartikan sebagai pemberian layanan (melayani) keperluan orang atau masyarakat yang mempunyai kepentingan pada organisasi itu sesuai dengan aturan pokok dan tata cara yang telah ditetapkan. pemerintahan untuk melayani masyarakat serta menciptakan kondisi yang memungkinkan setiap anggota masyarakat mengembangkan kemampuan dan kreativitasnya demi mencapai tujuan bersama (rasyid, 1998). menurut fernandes (2002) ada dua hal yang penting untuk dicermati dalam kaitannya dengan layanan publik, yaitu: dimensi pemberi layanan, dan masyarakat pengguna layanan. berdasarkan dimensi pemberi layanan perlu diperhatikan tingkat pencapaian kinerja yang meliputi layanan yang adil, kesiapan petugas dan mekanisme kerja, harga terjangkau, prosedur sederhana dan waktu penyelesaian yang dapat dipastikan. sedangkan dari dimensi masyarakat pengguna layanan publik harus memiliki pemahaman dan reaktif terhadap penyimpangan yang muncul dalam praktek penyelenggaraan layanan publik. birokrasi publik harus dapat memberikan layanan publik yang lebih profesional, efektif, sederhana, transparan, terbuka, tepat waktu, responsif dan adaptif serta sekaligus dapat membangun kualitas manusia dalam arti meningkatkan kapasitas individu dan masyarakat untuk secara aktif menentukan masa depannya sendiri (widodo, 2001). arah pembangunan kualitas manusia tadi adalah memberdayakan kapasitas manusia dalam arti menciptakan kondisi yang memungkinkan setiap anggota masyarakat mengembangkan kemampuan dan krativitasnya untuk mengatur dan menentukan masa depannya sendiri. pelayanan publik yang profesional, artinya pelayanan publik yang dicirikan oleh adanya akuntabilitas dan responsibilitas dari pemberi layanan (aparatur pemerintah) dengan ciri sebagai berikut (lan, 1998): (1) efektif, (2) sederhana, (3) kejelasan dan kepastian (transparan), (4) keterbukaan, (5) efisiensi, jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 11, nomor 1, april 2010: 20-29 22 (6) ketepatan waktu, (7) responsif, dan (8) adaptif. secara teoritis sedikitnya ada tiga fungsi utama yang harus dijalankan oleh pemerintah tanpa memandang tingkatannya, yaitu fungsi pelayan masyarakat (public service function), fungsi pembangunan (development function) dan fungsi perlindungan (protection function). beberapa bagian dari fungsi tadi bisa menjadi bidang tugas yang pelaksanaannya dapat dilimpahkan kepada pihak swasta ataupun dengan menggunakan pola kemitraan (partnership), antara pemerintah dengan swasta untuk mengadakannya. pola kerjasama antara pemerintah dengan swasta dalam memberikan berbagai pelayanan kepada masyarakat tersebut sejalan dengan gagasan reinventing government yang dikembangkan osborne dan gaebler (1992). untuk menciptakan kualitas pelayanan publik yang diberikan oleh aparatur pemerintah, perlu ada kriteria yang menunjukkan apakah suatu pelayanan publik yang diberikan dapat dikatakan baik atau buruk. zeithaml (2000) mengemukakan dalam mendukung hal tersebut, ada sepuluh dimensi yang harus diperhatikan dalam melihat tolok ukur kualitas pelayanan publik, yaitu: (1) tangible, terdiri atas fasilitas fisik, peralatan, personil, dan komunikasi; (2) realiable, terdiri dari kemampuan unit pelayanan dalam menciptakan pelayanan yang dijanjikan dengan tepat; (3) responsiveness, kemauan untuk membantu konsumen bertanggung jawab terhadap kualitas pelayanan yang diberikan; (4) competence, tuntutan yang dimilikinya, pengetahuan dan ketrampilan yang baik oleh aparatur dalam memberikan pelayanan; (5) courtesy, sikap atau perilaku ramah, bersahabat, tanggap terhadap keinginan konsumen serta mau melakukan kontak atau hubungan pribadi; (6) credibility, sikap jujur dalam setiap upaya untuk menarik kepercayaan masyarakat; (7) security, jasa pelayanan yang diberikan harus bebas dari berbagai bahaya dan resiko; (8) access, terdapat kemudahan untuk mengadakan kontak dan pendekatan; (9) communication,kemauan pemberi pelayanan untuk mendengarkan suara, keinginan atau aspirasi pelanggan, sekaligus kesediaan untuk selalu menyampaikan informasi baru kepada masyarakat; dan (10) understanding the customer, melakukan segala usaha untuk mengetahui kebutuhan pelanggan. terciptanya kepuasan pelanggan dapat memberikan berbagai manfaat, di antaranya hubungan antara pelanggan dan pemberi layanan menjadi harmonis, sehingga memberikan dasar yang baik bagi terciptanya loyalitas pelanggan, membentuk suatu rekomendasi dari mulut ke mulut (word of mouth). hal yang menguntungkan bagi pemberi layanan, reputasi yang semakin baik di mata pelanggan, serta laba (pad) yang diperoleh akan semakin meningkat (tjiptono, 1997). metode penelitian data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini meliputi data primer dan sekunder. data primer merupakan data yang diperoleh dari hasil survey, pengamatan (observasi), indepth interview, dan focus group discussion (fgd). sedangkan, data sekunder merupakan data yang diambil dari berbagai instansi berupa dokumendokumen program, hasil studi/penelitian, buku-buku dan peraturan-peraturan yang relevan yang terkait dengan penelitian. teknik analisis menggunakan analisis deskriptif (descriptive analysis). analisis ini menjadi penting karena kebutuhan pengembangan strategi pelayanan pada unit baru memerlukan referensi yang cukup. selain itu, juga dilakukan analisis kualitatif untuk merumuskan strategi pelayanan menggunakan metode swot. metode swot digunakan untuk merumuskan secara kualitatif dan holistik baik lingkungan internal maupun eksternal dari obyek yang sedang diamati. dalam lingkup internal, analisis akan menjelaskan secara rinci aspek-aspek yang menjadi kelemahan (weakness) dan kekuatan usaha (strength). sementara itu, dalam lingkup eksternal analisis ini akan menjelaskan secara rinci mengenai aspek peluang (opportunity) dan kendala/ancaman/tantangan (threat) usaha yang akan dihadapi. deskripsi umum studi ini berorientasi pada pengembangan kapasitas kelembagaan/institusi, khususnya pada peningkatan aspek pelayanan penanaman mostrategi pelayanan penanaman modal (ahmad ma’ruf) 23 dal dengan berbagai implikasinya yang dilakukan oleh ptsp penanaman modal di provinsi diy yang dalam hal ini dilakukan oleh kantor gerai pelayanan perijinan terpadu (p2t) bkpm provinsi diy. kantor gerai p2t bkpm provinsi diy adalah merupakan penggabungan dari gerai investasi bkpm provinsi diy yang awalnya hanya sebagai front office dengan bidang fasilitasi perijinan penanaman modal bkpm provinsi diy yang awalnya sebagai back office. secara fisik gedung kantor gerai p2t bkpm provinsi diy sudah sesuai dengan kualifikasi taraf bintang satu dan memenuhi standar pelayanan terpadu satu pintu (ptsp) yang berpedomanpada peraturan presiden nomor: 27 tahun 2009 dan peraturan kepala bkpm nomor: 11 sampai dengan 14 tahun 2009. adanya standar tersebut, kantor gerai p2t bkpm provinsi diy akanmelayani perijinan dan non perijinan penanaman modal dalam negeri tingkat provinsi. kondisi saat ini fasilitas dan sarana pendukung sudah cukup memadai, termasuk dengan ketersediaan sumber daya manusia, komputer, data dan informasi perijinan, help desk (meja bantu), kendaraan, tempat parkir, gedung berlantai 2 (dua) yang terletak di jalanbrigjen katamso, yogyakarta yang meliputi: front office berada di lantai satu dan back office berada pada lantai dua dan fasilitas lainnya yang masih dalam proses untuk dilengkapi yang menjadi persyaratan sebuah ptsp. hasil dan pembahasan analisis lingkungan internal dan eksternal berdasarkan hasil document review dan deep interview pada stakeholders, serta hasil masukan dalam fgd, maka beberapa hal yang teridentifikasi menjadi faktor kekuatan dari gerai p2t bkpm provinsi diy terkait peningkatan pelayanan penanaman modal antara lain adalah: (1) memiliki aspek legalitas kelembagaan pelayanan perijinan penanaman modal yang kuat yaitu peraturan gubernur diy. dengan legalitas ini, maka kantor p2t bkpm provinsi diy memiliki kejelasan kewenangan dan peraturan dasar organisasi untuk menjalankan tugas operasionalnya. (2) memiliki gedung tersendiri (kualifikasi taraf bintang satu ptsp), dengan menempati gedung tersendiri berlantai dua yang berlokasidi jalan brigjen katamso, yogyakarta menjadikan operasional gerai p2t lebih terpadu dan menjadi kejelasan lokasi layanan bagi masyarakat. (3) kepemimpinan yang kuat. sekarang ini kantor gerai p2t bkpm provinsi diy dipimpin oleh seorang pejabat eselon tiga di bawah kepala badan kerjasama dan penanaman modal provinsi diy. kepemimpinan menjadi modal utama untuk menggerakkan subsistem yang terkait dengan operasional gerai p2t. (4) jaringan teknologi informasi (it) yang support untuk spipise. pada era komunikasi berbasis it, maka intensitas operasional dan layanan yang diberikan secara bertahap terus meningkat seiring dengan kebutuhan dan tuntutan pengguna layanan. untuk itu, penyediaan sarana dan prasarana yang mendukung sistem pelayanan berbasis it akan terus dilakukan. beberapa hal yang teridentifikasi menjadi faktor kelemahan antara lain adalah: (1) sistem manajemen yang belum mapan, ditandakan belum tersedianya pranata organisasi secara lengkap, seperti grand design, sop detail belum ada dan instrumen kinerja yang belum terstandar. orientasi pelayanan sangat ditentukan oleh sistem mutu organisasi yang terbangun dan terimplementasi dalam kegiatan operasional pelayanan keseharian. dengan demikian, belum terbangunnya sistem manajemen mutu secara menyeluruh dalam kantor gerai p2t bkpm provinsi diy masih menjadi kelemahan dalam menjaga konsistensi kualitas pelayanan. (2) mayoritas sumber daya manusia di kantor gerai p2t bkpm provinsi diy belum mengikuti dan bersertifikasi pelatihan kepuasan pelanggan dan penanganan berbagai bentuk perijinan yang menjadi tugas dari gerai p2t bkpm provinsi diy. kunci kesuksesan pelayanan publik sangat bertumpu pada kualitas sdm dan bukan pada sarana pelayanan. sdm dalam semua lini dituntut memiliki kompetensi sesuai dengan tugas pokok dan fungsinya. (3) perlengkapan komputer dan alat kantor yang masih terbatas. cakupan pelayanan perijinan yang cukup banyak dan tuntutan kecepatan pelayanan, serta orientasi sistem pelayanjurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 11, nomor 1, april 2010: 20-29 24 an yang terintegrasi berbasis teknologi informasi membutuhkan ketersediaan sarana dan prasarana yang mendukung sistem tersebut dapat beroperasi dengan baik. sekarang ini, kondisi komputer belum memadai. (4) kondisi desain interior layanan p2t bkpm provinsi diy saat ini terlihat pada ruang front office di lantai satu cukup memadai, sedangkan lantai dua yang menjadi ruang back office masih sangat konvensional sehingga belum terbangun satu kesatuan tema desain interior yang mencitrakan dan mengkondisikan sebuah proses pelayanan prima. (5) untuk mewujudkan pemenuhan kebutuhan pengembangan diperlukan ketersediaan dana operasional dalam jumlah yang cukup besar sehingga proses akselerasi operasional gerai p2t bkpm provinsi diy akan segera terwujud. pada tahap awal beroperasinya sebuah kantor pelayanan memerlukan banyak pengeluaran yang bersifat investasi publik, baik dalam bentuk penyediaan sarana prasarana, investasi pengembangan kapasitas sdm. sementara itu, beberapa faktor yang menjadi peluang bagi gerai p2t bkpm provinsi diy untuk meningkatkan pelayanan antara lain adalah: (1) kebijakan pemerintah pusat, termasuk bkpm ri yang fokus pada penciptaan daya saing penanaman modal. persaingan antarnegara untuk menjadikan wilayahnya sebagai tempat penanaman modal terus berlangsung dengan ketat, sehingga pemerintah pusat, khususnya bkpm ri, terus melakukan berbagai upaya meningkatkan daya saing dalam bidang investasi dan bisnis. salah satu kebijakannya adalah pembentukan ptsp penanaman modal pada tingkat provinsi dan kabupaten/kota yang tertuang dalam kebijakan peraturan kepala bkpm ri nomor: 11 sampai dengan 14 tahun 2009 sebagai tindaklanjut dari peraturan presiden nomor: 27 tahun 2009 tentang ptsp. dengan adanya kebijakan tersebut, maka peluang bagi gerai p2t bkpm provinsi diy untuk mendapatkan berbagai kesempatan untuk meningkatkan kapasitas organisasi dalam rangka meningkatkan pelayanan yang bersumber dari dukungan pembiayaan pusat. (2) kebijakan pemerintah pusat yang mendelegasikan kewenangan perijinan investasi kepada daerah. turunan dari kebijakan pembentukan ptsp adalah desentralisasi kewenangan penanganan perijinan yang selama ini dilakukan oleh pemerintah pusat untuk dijadikan sebagai kegiatan pelayanan perijinan oleh pemerintah daerah. kebijakan ini akan memberikan kewenangan provinsi diy untuk memberikan pelayanan terbaik dalam rangka memberikan pelayanan penanaman modal yang dapat dilakukan sehingga para pelaku usaha akan lebih efektif dan efisien. (3) kerjasama dengan stakeholders pengembangan penanaman modal di daerah (perbankan, media masa, perguruan tinggi, asosiasi bisnis dan investasi). kerjasama strategis dengan stakeholders dalam berbagai bentuk kegiatan akan sangat bermanfaat dan membantu bkpm provinsi diy dalam menjalankan fungsi organisasinya dari tingkat perencanaan hingga evaluasi atas kinerjanya. pemahaman kebutuhan pelayanan akan teridentifikasi dengan baik apabila mampu menyerap kebutuhan riil dari instansi di luar bkpm provinsi diy. (4) perkembangan aplikasi teknologi informasi yang menjadi gaya hidup dan sarana komunikasi modern bagi masyarakat, khususnya pelaku usaha. berkembangnya aplikasi teknologi informasi dan gaya hidup masyarakat yang menggunakan it sebagai media komunikasi dan penyelesaian berbagai kebutuhan operasional keseharian menjadi peluang bagi bkpm provinsi diy untuk menciptakan sistem pelayanan yang efisien, efektif, dan transparan pada masyarakat. (5) pengarusutamaan pelayanan publik yang baik (public excellence services) seiring dengan kebijakan reformasi birokrasi. kebijakan reformasi birokrasi secara silmutan berimplikasi pada upaya-upaya memberikan pelayanan publik memenuhi kaidah efektif, efisien, sederhana, transparan, tepat waktu, responsif, dan adaptif. kebijakan reformasi birokrasi untuk mengarusutamakan pelayanan publik yang baik dan implementasinya menjadi peluang bagi bkpm provinsi diy untuk melakukan pemodelan kelembagaan yang memiliki pranata sebagai institusi pelayanan publik. beberapa hal yang teridentifikasi menjadi faktor tantangan bagi gerai p2t bkpm provinsi diy untuk meningkatkan pelayanan penanamstrategi pelayanan penanaman modal (ahmad ma’ruf) 25 an modal adalah: (1) tuntutan yang tinggi dari masyarakat untuk dilayani dengan baik dengan preferensi pada pelayanan sektor jasa swasta. sebagai konsumen atas pelayanan publik yang diberikan pemerintah serta posisi pada pihak yang telah memberikan kewajiban sebagai warga negara, seperti telah membayar pajak, berimplikasi pada tuntutan masyarakat untuk mendapatkan pelayanan publik dengan kualitas pelayanan yang baik sebagaimana pelayanan yang diberikan oleh sektor jasa swasta. daya kritis masyarakat terus mengalami peningkatan seiring kesadaran akan hak-hak publik menjadikan gerai p2t bkpm provinsi diy harus memberikan standar layanan yang terbaik. (2) pemeringkatan kinerja instansi pelayanan publik. berbagai lembaga independen, seperti kppod, ifs, icw, tii, dan lembaga lainnya serta instansi pemerintah, termasuk bkpm ri, kementerian dalam negeri dan sebagainya dalam rangka mengevaluasi pelayanan publik yang didalamnya termasuk pelayanan perijinan penanaman modal, telah melakukan pemeringkatan dan penilaian secara berkala. hasil pemeringkatan akan terpublikasi luas dan menjadikan indikator kinerja skpd dalam hal pelayanan publik. hal ini menjadi tantangan bagi bkpm provinsi diy untuk melakukan pengembangan manajemen mutu pelayanan sehingga peringkat dari sisi pelayanan perijinan akan terus mengalami peningkatan. strategi pengembangan pelayanan berdasarkan analisis lingkungan internal dan ekternal dari bkpm provinsi diy yang telah diuraikan pada bagian sebelumnya, maka dalam analisis strategi pengembangan pelayanan ini akan diformulasikan dalam matriks analisis swot kemudian dilakukan pembobotan untuk mendapatkan rumusan strategi pelayanan. berbagai hasil identifikasi semua aspek dalam analisis swot dapat dimasukkan dalam satu matriks sebagaimana tersaji dalam tabel 1. tindaklanjut dari rumusan swot adalah mengidentifikasi isu-isu strategis yang akan menjadi rujukan dalam perumusan strategi, maka dilakukan tes litmus yang hasilnya disajikan dalam tabel 2. berdasarkan rumusan isu strategis tersebut, maka dapat diklasifikasikan menjadi dua kelompok besar dalam rumusan strategis peningkatan kualitas pelayanan perijinan oleh gerai p2t bkpm provinsi diy. kedua kelompok strategi tersebut adalah strategi yang mendorong pada penciptaan kelembagaan dan sistem manajemen mutu instansi bkpm provinsi diy; dan strategi yang mendorong pengembangan kapasitas sdm yang ada di gerai p2t provinsi diy. rincian strategi pelayanan berdasarkan analisis swot di atas, maka rumusan strategi pengembangan pelayanan gerai p2t bkpm provinsi diy yang secara umum dapat dikelompokkan dalam dua bagian dapat lebih diperinci sebagai berikut: (1) membangun sistem manajemen mutu pada aspek pelayanan publik di gerai p2t bkpm provinsi diy. dalam upaya meningkatkan pelayanan ptsp penanaman modal, maka bkpm provinsi diy sebagai instansi jasa pelayanan publik perlu mengembangkan konsep total quality service (tqs) yang merupakan sistem manajemen strategis dan integratif untuk melibatkan kepala badan, kepala bidang, kepala kantor, karyawan atau staf yang terkait serta menggunakan metode kualitatif dan kuantitatif untuk memperbaiki secara berkesinambungan proses-proses organisasi agar dapat memenuhi dan melebihi kebutuhan, keinginan, dan harapan pelanggan. tqs berfokus pada lima bidang, yaitu: (a) fokus pada pelanggan, (b) keterlibatan total, (c) pengukuran, (d) dukungan sistematis, dan (e) perbaikan berkesinambungan. terkait dengan strategi pengembangan mutu organisasi sebagai strategi utama dalam membangun pelayan yang baik, dapat dilakukan beberapa turunan kegiatan seperti: strategi peningkatan kualitas layanan dengan benchmarking, reengineering, management by objective, dan melengkapi dokumen yang bersifat fundamental, seperti grand design dari bkpm provinsi diy berikut instrumen kinerja, instrumen operasional (sop) dan dokumen lain. proses ini akan lebih mudah dilaksanakan sekaligus melalui strategi benchmarking, reengineering, dan management by objective. (2) mengembangkan kelembagaan pelayanan penanaman modal yang efisien (ptsp) berbasis jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 11, nomor 1, april 2010: 20-29 26 it dengan kualitas tersertifikasi (iso) dan bersertifikat bintang tiga. kualitas dan pelayanan yang baik kepada publik tentunya akan memudahkan ptsp provinsi diy dalam membangun sistem manajemen mutu yang terstandar. dalam hal ini, akan lebih kredibel untuk ditarget mendapatkan international standards organization (iso) yang ditujukan untuk menjamin proses manajemen yang berkualitas melalui pengembangan standar dunia bagi sistem, produk, dan layanan. jika sebuah organisasi jasa memperoleh sertifikasi iso, maka organisasi tersebut berhak mengatakan kepada publik bahwa organisasi telah mempunyai system kualitas terdokumentasikan yang telah diimplementasi dan diikuti secara konsisten. organitabel 1. matriks swot pelayanan gerai p2t bkpm provinsi diy ifas efas strength (s) 1. memiliki aspek legalitas kelembagaan pelayanan perijinan yang kuat (pergub 36 dan 49) 2. memiliki gedung tersendiri (kualifikasi taraf bintang satu ptsp) 3. kepempimpinan yang kuat 4. jaringan it yang support untuk spipise). weaknes (w) 1. sistem manajemen organisasi yang belum mapan, ditandakan belum adanya grand design, r, sop detail belum ada dan instrumen kinerja yang belum terstandar. 2. mayoritas sdm gerai p2t belum mengikuti dan bersertifikasi pelatihan kepuasan pelanggan 3. perlengkapan komputer dan alat kantor yang masih terbatas 4. kondisi ruangan yang belum menyatu dalam aspek desain dan asesoris. 5. keterbatasan anggaran untuk akselerasi operasional gerai opportunity (o) 1. kebijakan pemerintah pusat (termasuk bkpm ri) yang fokus pada penciptaan daya saing penanaman modal 2. kebijakan pemerintah pusat yang mendelegasikan kewenangan lebih dalam perijinan investasi 3. kerjasama dengan stakeholders investasi (perbankan, media masa, perguruan tinggi, asosiasi bisnis) 4. perkembangan it yang menjadi gaya hidup dan sarana komunikasi modern. 5. pengarusutamaan pelayanan publik yang baik (public excellence services) strategi so 1. mengembangkan kelembagaan pelayanan penanaman modal yang efisien (ptsp) berbasis it dengan kualitas tersertifikasi (iso) dan bersertifikat bintang tiga 2. pengembangan aplikasi it untuk layanan perijinan investasi dan komunikasi dengan stakeholders. strategi wo 1. meningkatkan kapasitas sdm dengan proakif mengirimkan pada pelatihan-pelatihan bersertifikat. 2. mengembangkan kemitraan strategis yang kegiatannya terjadwal dan ada task force termasuk dalam monev kepuasan pelayanan gerai. 3. proaktif mengajukan penyediaan pendanaan untuk sarana dan prasarana perkantoran gerai. 4. membangun sistem manajemen mutu pada aspek pelayanan publik di gerai perijinan. treat (t) 1. tuntutan yang tinggi dari konsumen untuk dilayani dengan baik (preferensi pada pelayanan sektor jasa swasta) 2. pemeringkatan kinerja instansi pelayanan publik. strategi st 1. mengoptimalkan sarana pelayanan yang ada untuk memberikan pelayanan prima pada publik. strategi wt 1. meningkatkan partisipasi publik dalam monitoring dan evaluasi pelayanan perijinan strategi pelayanan penanaman modal (ahmad ma’ruf) 27 sasi yang telah mengikuti proses kualitas dalam standar iso, besar kemungkinan akan menghasilkan produk dan jasa yang berkualitas pula. ada tiga prinsip dasar terkait iso 9000 yang perlu dipersiapkan secara matang agar organisasi dapat mencapai sasaran perbaikan berkesinambungan. ketiga prinsip dasar tersebut adalah: (a) menyusun tujuan dan sasaran penting, (b) merumuskan tindakan melalui kebijakan, program, dan prosedur untuk mencapai tujuan yang diharapkan, memahami sumber penolakan dan menetralisirnya. pimpinan gerai p2t bkpm provinsi diy perlu mengembangkan komunikasi horisontal dan vertikal dalam organisasinya secara efektif, melibatkan para penentang potensial dalam perencanaan dan proses perubahan, serta memberdayakan para staf dalam pengambilan keputusan dan pemecahan masalah. (3) mengembangkan kerjasama strategis dalam rangka pelayanan perijinan yang kegiatannya terjadwal dan ada tim koordinasi lintas sektor dalam rangka mewujudkan dan meningkatkan kepuasan pelayanan di provinsi diy. kegiatan kerjasama strategis ini selain untuk menjadikan forum melakukan analisis kebutuhan (need assessment) atas pelayanan yang diberikan gerai p2t bkpm provinsi diy, juga dijadikan sebagai media untuk sosialisasi produk layanan, capaian kinerja, maupun informasi lain yang akan mampu mendorong peningkatan penanaman modal. proses kerjasama strategis yang mulai dirintis oleh bidang perijinan bkpm provinsi diy perlu diintensifkan dalam pematangan bentuk kerjasama sehingga terbangun hubungan kontraktual yang tertuang dalam dokumen kerjasama, seperti mou. agar tujuan kerjasama strategis ini tercapai, maka sebagai inisiator, pihak bidang fasilitasi perijinan bekerjasama dengan bidang kerjasama bkpm provinsi diy harus berperan sebagai motor penggerak dalam implementasi mou. (4) pengembangan aplikasi it untuk layanan perijinan investasi dan komunikasi dengan stakeholders. pengembangan sistem pelayanan yang berbasis it atau yang bersifat online memungkinkan proses pelayanan akan lebih cepat, efisien, dan informasinya menjadi transparan. tentu saja pengembangan aplikasi ini, selain harus mendapatkan dukungan dari sisi pendanaan untuk penyediaan infrastrukturnya, juga pengembangan kualitas sdm gerai p2t bkpm provinsi diy yang mengelola sarana ini sehingga tidak ada kesenjangan dalam pematabel 2. rumusan isu strategik pelayanan gerai p2t bkpm provinsi daerah istimewa yogyakarta no isu strategik skor*) sifat isu 1 membangun sistem manajemen mutu pada aspek pelayanan publik di gerai p2t bkpm provinsi diy 38 strategis 2 mengembangkan kelembagaan pelayanan penanaman modal yang efisien (ptsp) berbasis it dengan kualitas tersertifikasi (iso) dan bersetifikat bintang tiga 36 strategis 3 meningkatkan kapasitas sdm dengan proakif mengirimkan pada pelatihan-pelatihan bersertifikat. 36 strategis 4 mengembangkan kerjasama strategis yang kegiatannya terjadwal dan termasuk dalam monev kepuasan pelayanan di gerai p2t bkpm provinsi diy. 30 strategis 5 pengembangan aplikasi it untuk layanan perijinan investasi dan komunikasi dengan stakeholders. 28 strategis 6 proaktif mengajukan penyediaan pendanaan untuk sarana dan prasarana perkantoran 28 strategis 7 meningkatkan partisipasi publik dalam monitoring dan evluasi pelayanan perijinan 27 moderat 8 mengoptimalkan sarana pelayanan yang ada untuk memberikan pelayanan prima pada publik. 26 moderat sumber: data primer, hasil perhitungan tes litmus jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 11, nomor 1, april 2010: 20-29 28 haman dan aplikasi it. (5) proaktif mengajukan penyediaan pendanaan untuk sarana dan prasarana perkantoran. pada tahap awal, proses persiapan dan penyediaan untuk memberikan pelayanan, maka belanja publik yang teralokasi akan banyak dan bersifat belanja modal (investasi). dengan tuntutan kualitas layanan, maka proses penyediaan sarana dan prasarana serta pengembangan kualitas sdm tidak dapat ditunda ataupun secara gradasi dalam durasi waktu yang lama. untuk itu, pihak bkpm provinsi diyharus proaktif untuk mendapatkan berbagai dukungan pembiayaan ataupun bentuk lain yang bersumber dari dana pusat maupun daerah. (6) meningkatkan partisipasi publik dalam monitoring dan evaluasi pelayanan perijinan di gerai p2t bkpm provinsi diy. adanya perkembangan tuntutan yang terus menerus dari masyarakat atas penyelenggara layanan dari gerai p2t bkpm provinsi diy dapat dimaknai sebagai proses learning organization yang tidak dapat dihindari dan menjadi bagian dari manajemen mutu yang dibangun bkpm provinsi diydengan salah satu prinsip partisipasi publik. dalam hal ini, juga termasuk upaya-upaya yang dilakukan bkpm provinsi diyuntuk mendapatkan apresiasi publik melalui pemeringkatan dan penilaian kinerja, baik yang dilakukan oleh pemerintah, seperti bkpm ri, kemendagri, maupun oleh lembaga independen. (7) mengoptimalkan sarana pelayanan yang ada untuk memberikan pelayanan prima pada publik. kegiatan optimalisasi dari sumber daya yang ada sekarang ini di gerai p2t bkpm provinsi diymenjadi pilihan terkait dengan kondisi alokasi pembiayaan yang terbatas dan secara nyata mengimplementasikan prinsip optimalisasi atas investasi publik yang sudah dilakukan pada periode sebelumnya. (8) meningkatkan kapasitas sdm dengan proakif mengirimkan pada pelatihan-pelatihan bersertifikat. strategi sdm yang bisa diterapkan adalah pengembangan sdm berbasis kompetensi. pengembangan sdm tidak saja dalam bentuk peningkatan pengetahuan dan keterampilan teknis tetapi juga pengembangan sikap. sikap yang dibutuhkan adalah berupa daya respon dan kepekaan terhadap masalah-masalah perkembangan perilaku bisnis (termasuk kegiatan penanaman modal) serta mutu produk layanan. pelatihan dan pengembangan sikap para staf yang langsung berhadapan dengan para konsumen dan pelanggan menjadi sangat strategis. termasuk membangun kepribadian staf yang hangat dan empati sehingga pelayanan prima dapat terwujud secara efektif. (9) proses pengembangan sdm juga dapat dilakukan dengan menyelenggarakan inhouse training yang secara berkala dilakukan dan diikuti oleh semua staf berdasarkan tema, baik yang materinya bersifat spesifik menunjang kompetensi khusus ataupun materi yang bersifat umum yang terkait dengan kualitas pelayanan. simpulan rumusan strategi peningkatan pelayanan penanaman modal di provinsi diydalam implementasinya memerlukan beberapa hal, yaitu: (1) komitmen pimpinan instansi untuk mengoptimalkan sumber daya dalam rangka membangun secara kontinyu sistem manajemen mutu yang berstandar dengan indikasi pengakuan lembaga sertifikasi iso dan mendapatkan penilaian dari bkpm ri dan kemendagri termasuk klasifikasi ptsp bintang tiga, (2) merumuskan dokumen rencana strategis yang visioner dengan tolok ukur kinerja yang jelas sebagai dokumen pemandu arah pengembangan kelembagaan dan proses pelayanan, dan (3) bkpm provinsi diy merumuskan berbagai instrumen standar layanan seperti sop pada semua lini dan unit kerja di sebagai instrumen standar kualitas pelayanan perijinan dan standar operasional. daftar pustaka barney, jay ouchi wiliam g. 1988. organizational economics, toward a new paradigm for understanding and studying organization, san francisco, london, jossey: bass publisher. beny, a. parasuraman. 1999. marketing services: competing through quality, 1th ed. new strategi pelayanan penanaman modal (ahmad ma’ruf) 29 york: the free press. collis, john and jones philip. 1992.public finance and public choice, analitical perspective. london: mcgraw-hill international edition. elliassen, kjell a and kooiman, jan (ed).1993. managing public organizations, london: sage publications ltd. farnham, david and sylvia horton (ed). 1993.managing the new public service. london: mac millan. fernandes, joe. 2002.otonomi daerah di indonesia masa reformasi: antara ilusi dan fakta. jakarta: ipos dan ford foundation. flyn, n. 1990. public sector managament. london: harvester wheatsheaf. harbunangin, butje, dan harahap pardamean ronitua. 1995. 111 hal penting tentang iso 9000. jakarta: pt iron damwin sentosa. hinton, tom and scaeffer, wini. 1996.customer focused quality, alih bahasa aji suroso. jakarta: penerbit hanilarang. osborne, d & gaebler, t.1992. reinventing government: how the entrepreneurial spirit in transforming the public sector, reading. massachussetts: a willian patrick book. priyono, agung.2007. pelayanan satu atap sebagai strategi pelayanan prima di daerah otonomi daerah, jurnal komunikasi massa, volume 1 nomor 1 juli. propenko, yoseph dan pavlin igor. 1991. enterpreneurship development in public enterprise. london: englewood. rasyid, m. ryaas. 1998. desentralisasi dalam rangka menunjang pembangunan daerah: dalam kumpulan karangan. pembangunan administrasi.disunting achmad sjihabuddin. jakarta: lp3es. ratminto dan atik septi winarsih. 2005.manajemen pelayanan: pengembangan model konseptual, penerapan citizen's chapter dan standar pelayanan minimal. yogyakarta: pustaka pelajar. sedaryanti. 2004.good governance: membangun sistem manajemen kinerja guna meningkatkan produktivitas. bandung: mandar maju. tjiptono, fandy. 1997. prinsip-prinsip total quality service. yogyakarta: penerbit andi offset. vrye, catherine de. 1994.good service is good business, 7 simple strategies for success, australia: prentice hall. wahyudi kumorotomo. 2005. akuntabilitas birokrasi publik: sketsa pada masa transisi. yogyakarta: map-ugm dan pustaka pelajar. widodo, joko. 2001. good governance, telaah akuntabilitas dan kontrol birokrasi di era desentralisasi dan otonomi daerah, surabaya: insan cendekia. wirjatmi, endang trilestari. 2001.filosofi, strategi dan teknik pelayanan prima di sektor publik; makalah ceramah tentang manajemen pelayanan prima di lembaga administrasi negara bandung, 9 agustus. zeithaml, v. 2000. service quality, profitability and the economic worth of customers: what we know and what we need to learn. journal of the academy of marketing science, 28(1):67-85. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 23 no 2, october 2022 article type: research paper how important is environmentally sustainable tourism? evidence in indonesia from 1974-2018 using nardl cointegration nadya setiawati and eksa pamungkas abstract: tourism is one of the most important sectors of the indonesian economy because it is one of the mainstay sectors in obtaining foreign exchange, which is expected to increase economic growth. however, along with its positive impact on economic growth, the expansion of the tourism industry is also a significant contribution to rising co2 emissions and energy consumption. this study focuses on assessing the impact of the tourism sector as proxied by the number of international tourist visits on gdp per capita and the environment as seen from co2 emissions and total energy consumption. this study uses data covering 44 years (1974 2018). the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (nardl) method was used in this study. the results indicate that an increase in total foreign tourist arrivals has a positive impact on real gdp per capita and total energy consumption in the short term, whereas a decrease has a beneficial effect on reducing real gdp per capita, co2 emissions, and total energy consumption. in the long term, an increase in total international tourist arrivals is known to have a positive effect on increasing real gdp per capita, co2 emissions, and total energy consumption; then, the decrease has a positive effect on reducing real gdp per capita and co2 emissions. the result of this study demonstrates that an increase in total international tourist arrivals has a positive effect on shortand long-term impact on real gdp per capita and total energy consumption. there are several policy implications as a consideration of the results of this study, such as the use of carbon-neutral transportation and hybrid energy as well as tax breaks or lowcost financing opportunities to purchase and install green technology. keywords: emission; energy consumption; gdp; tourism; nardl jel classification: c22; q56; z32 introduction tourism is one of indonesia's most important economic industries (saptutyningsih & duanta, 2021; sujai, 2016). over the last few years, tourism has substantially contributed to the gross domestic product (gdp). therefore, tourism is also one of the economy's mainstays and is vital in accomplishing sustainable development goals. (davidson & sahli, 2014; kapera, 2018; lee & jan, 2019). this is because industries that rely on nonrenewable natural resources, such as oil and gas, cannot be relied upon in the long term. furthermore, despite growing social disparities and environmental costs, the tourism sector is the driver of wealth and job creation. the united nations (un) declared 2017 as the international year affiliation: department of economics, faculty of economics and business, universitas padjajaran, west java, indonesia *correspondence: nadyasetiawati14@gmail.com this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v23i2.15238 citation: setiawati, n., & pamungkas, e. (2022). how important is environmentally sustainable tourism? evidence in indonesia from 1974-2018 using nardl cointegration. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 23(2), 201219. article history received: 27 jun 2022 revised: 21 sep 2022 accepted: 11 oct 2022 https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=m5tfwmaaaaaj&hl=en http://iesp.feb.unpad.ac.id/en/ http://iesp.feb.unpad.ac.id/en/ http://iesp.feb.unpad.ac.id/en/ http://iesp.feb.unpad.ac.id/en/ mailto:nadyasetiawati14@gmail.com http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/15238 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v23i2.15238&domain=pdf setiawati & pamungkas how important is environmentally sustainable tourism? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 202 of sustainable tourism for development, providing a chance to assess tourism's impact and advocate for legislation that would make tourism a major contributor to the sustainable development goals (sdgs) (nepal et al., 2019). figure 1 contribution of the tourism sector to indonesia's gdp (in percent) sources: ministry of tourism (2020) tourism is recognized as one of the leading sectors in indonesia, making it one of the country's primary sources of foreign currency, which is anticipated to stimulate economic growth (azizurrohman et al., 2021). based on the ministry of tourism performance report (2019) , it is known that the tourism sector may create substantial quantities of foreign exchange and that this amount increases significantly every year, from rp. 175.71 trillion in 2015 to rp. 229.50 trillion in 2018. the tourist industry also contributes to the absorption of the labor force, as evidenced by the annual growth of its entire workforce. in 2015, there were 10.36 million workers, which then expanded in 2018 to 12.70 million people. the tourism sector also contributes significantly to gdp. it can be seen in figure 1 that from 2015 through 2019, the tourism sector contributed an average of 4.3% of gdp, with the highest contribution being in 2019. this contribution was driven by the increasing number of local, and foreign tourists, and investment (ministry of tourism, 2020). likewise, the number of foreign tourist visits to indonesia has increased over the last five years. based on figure 2, it can be seen that the number of foreign tourist visits in 2019 reached 16.11 million and showed the highest number compared to previous years. figure 2 the number of international tourist visits to indonesia sources: ministry of tourism (2020) 3,6 3,8 4 4,2 4,4 4,6 4,8 5 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 0 5 10 15 20 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 m il li o n s international tourist visits to indonesia setiawati & pamungkas how important is environmentally sustainable tourism? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 203 the relationship between tourism and economic growth has been studied for the past two decades (pigliaru & lanza, 2000). it is known that the causal relationship between tourism and growth includes four scenarios: tourism-led growth, economy-driven tourism, bidirectional causality, and no-causality (antonakakis et al., 2016). several studies explained the truth of the tourism-led economic growth (tleg) hypothesis, (tang & tan, 2017) for example, assess whether the tleg hypothesis is internationally valid by considering the degree of state wealth and institutional quality using panel data from 167 nations. their findings suggest that tourism helps to economic growth, although the effect differs depending on income levels and institutional quality. antonakakis et al. (2016), using the spillover index technique to investigate the dynamic relationship between tourism growth and economic growth, found a relationship between tourists and economic growth but is not constant over time. then, the results of his research also show that the tleg and economic-driven tourism growth (edtg) hypotheses are correct. however, along with its positive effect on economic growth, the development of the tourism sector is also one of the contributors to increasing greenhouse gas (ghg) emissions significantly (gössling, 2013; gössling & buckley, 2016). the success of the development in the tourism sector can be measured from the increase in the reception and number of tourists. according to research by (kuo et al., 2012), an increase in tourism revenue will only result in an increase in co2 emissions and lower than the increase in the total of tourist visits in china. (solarin, 2014), in his research on the presence or absence of long-term causality between tourist arrivals and pollution in multivariate analysis covering gross domestic product (gdp), total energy consumption, financial development, and urbanization in malaysia. his research also shows that an increase in the number of tourist arrivals positively encourages an increase in pollution. in indonesia, (lee & syah, 2018) examined the economic and environmental consequences of mass tourism on regional tourism destinations, particularly the establishment of the "ten new bali's" from 1980 to 2015. based on this research, it was found that there is a balance relationship long-term relationship between tourism receipts, environmental degradation, and economic growth. by 2035, this sector is expected to account for around 7.5% of global co2 emissions (unwto et al., 2008). one aspect of tourism that will contribute to emissions is foreign tourists, based on research by, which became a catalyst for increasing co2 emissions in cyprus. in addition, (katircioglu, 2014), in another study, found similar evidence for turkey, where international tourists also contributed significantly to increasing greenhouse gas emissions. however, some studies have found that tourist arrivals have a significant negative effect on co2 emission levels in both the short and long term in singapore (katircioǧlu, 2014). the majority of the extant literature discusses the impact of tourism on co2 emissions through various channels of energy consumption (koçak et al., 2020), where the aspect of tourism that has the greatest effect on energy use in international travel (gössling et al., 2015). tourism uses fossil energy sources predominantly, such as coal, natural gas, and oil, especially for transportation activities, activities in tourist destinations, and accommodation (gössling & peeters, 2015). therefore, understanding how much energy setiawati & pamungkas how important is environmentally sustainable tourism? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 204 consumption in tourist destinations can encourage the conservation of greenhouse gas energy by formulating policies and guidelines (zhang & zhang, 2019). there are several previous studies that discuss the relationship between co2 emissions, energy consumption, and tourism. among them are, (zaman et al., 2016), examined the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth and tourism development in east asia and pacific countries, the european union, and other highincome oecd and non-oecd countries from 2005 to 2013 using the environmental kuznets curve (ekc) hypothesis. the study's findings confirm that there is an inverse ushaped link between the region's carbon emissions and per capita income, and that tourist expansion causes higher emissions. (wu et al., 2016) assess energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions in china's tourist sector and compare overall emissions across key regions in their study. energy usage, sustainable tourism, and destination management have a complex relationship. therefore, a successful tourism destination cannot exist without sustained tourism growth. tourism and destination sustainability hinges on energy usage (ritchie & crouch, 2003). further research on energy consumption should be encouraged, since understanding tourist energy consumption is becoming an essential approach for destinations to avoid environmental deterioration and foster ecologically responsible tourism growth (zhang & zhang, 2019). in addition, many earlier research has utilized a linear technique to analyze the link betw een tourism and the outcome variable, such as economic growth. meanwhile, the analysis of non-linear and time-varying relationships is rarely conducted (wu et al., 2016). according to ridderstaat et al. (2013), the tourism-growth relationship cannot be fully analyzed linearly because the tourism effect diminishes returns. tang & tan (2017) also explained that the causal relationship between tourism growth shows a fluctuating influence from time to time, so it is necessary to consider non-linear and time-varying problems in the analysis. therefore, this study addresses a gap in the literature about the impact of foreign tourist visits on economic growth and the environmental impact of co2 emissions and overall energy consumption. this study examines the asymmetric link between international tourist visits, which is uncommon in indonesian research on related themes. this study focuses on the time period between 1974 and 2018, when sustainable tourism was not yet a major topic of public debate and was not generally adopted by policymakers. this study utilized the non-linear ardl model to capture the asymmetric influence of international tourist visits. this research contributes to the literature in various ways. first, this study uses the nardl model, which is able to capture the short-term and longterm impacts as well as the effects of asymmetry or changes resulting from the increase and decrease in the number of international tourists. second, the research not only analyzes the impact of international tourist arrivals on economic growth, but also on emissions and total energy consumption. third, this study considers the existence of time deterministic in the form of trends, structural breaks, and error correction terms (ect). the results of this study are expected to be a reference and recommendation in setiawati & pamungkas how important is environmentally sustainable tourism? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 205 identifying strategies for developing the tourism sector that seeks to balance economic growth while reducing pollutant emissions and encouraging energy efficiency. research method data the data used include real gdp per capita and foreign tourist arrivals (total from the central statistics agency (bps) as well as data on total carbon dioxide emissions and total energy consumption from the world bank. the data used is time series with a range from 1974 2018, which means there are 44 yearly observations in this study. method the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (nardl) model was used in this study. this model can explicitly capture the short-run and long-run effect and test for the asymmetric effect of tourist arrivals which is an advantage over other methods such as linear var and several non-linear methods, including quantile regression and markov-switching which have recently gained popularity in the literature (liang et al., 2020). this model has several advantages. first, this method provides long-term and short-term estimates in one step. second, this method can overcome the problem of bias in small samples and endogeneity bias which depends on the presence or absence of autocorrelation residuals. in addition, this method allows hidden cointegration tests and includes an asymmetric dynamic multiplier that monitors the asymmetric intertemporal response of the dependent variable due to positive-negative changes in the independent variables (nusair, 2016). model specification first, we determine the symmetric linear equation model as follows: lnyt = α + θt + ϑlntouristt + βd + μt (1) where yt is the expected outcome consisting of real gdp value, carbon emissions, and total energy consumption, touristt is the number of tourists who come, t shows the trend, d is another independent variable, α is the constant value, θt is coefficient of the time trend, μt is the assumption of the error term. this study uses an asymmetric longrun model based on partial sum decomposition based on (shin et al., 2014), as follows: lnyt = α + θt + ϑ +touristt + + ϑ−touristt − + δd + μt (2) where ϑ+ = ϑ− indicates a symmetrical effect of tourist arrival on outcomes. if ϑ+ > 0 and ϑ− > 0 implies that increasing tourism will improve outcomes, vice versa. (shin et al., 2014) modified the symmetric autoregressive distributed lag (ardl) model developed by setiawati & pamungkas how important is environmentally sustainable tourism? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 206 (pesaran et al., 2001) to analyze the problem of non-linear and asymmetric effects using partial number decomposition determined in the following equation: lntouristt = lntourist0 + lntouristt + + lntouristt − (3) lntourist0 is a variable value, lntouristt + and lntouristt − explain the process of partial addition that accumulates positive and negative changes in the tourist arrivals variable, which is then described again in the following equation: 𝑙𝑛𝑡𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑡 + = ∑ ∆𝑙𝑛𝑡𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑗 +𝑡 𝑗=1 = ∑ 𝑚𝑎𝑥 (∆𝑙𝑛𝑡𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑗 , 𝑡 𝑗=1 0) (4) 𝑙𝑛𝑡𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑡 − = ∑ ∆𝑙𝑛𝑡𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑗 −𝑡 𝑗=1 = ∑ 𝑚𝑎𝑥 (∆𝑙𝑛𝑡𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑗 , 𝑡 𝑗=1 0) (5) the two equations are an asymmetric cointegration model with partial sum decomposition. then to estimate the asymmetric long-run and short-run elasticity, the specification model used is as follows: ∆lnyt = θ0t + θ1lnyt−1 + θ2 +lntouristt−1 + + θ3 −lntouristt−1 − + ∑ αj q−1 j=1 ∆lnyt−j + ∑ βj +q−1 j=0 ∆lntouristt−j + + ∑ βj −q−1 j=0 ∆lntouristt−j − + δd + μt (6) in this study, three deterministic were used: structural breaks, trend, and error-correction term (ect). thus, the specifications of the model (6) used in this study it is further elaborated as follows: ∆lnyt = θ0t + θ1lnyt−1 + θ2 +lntouristt−1 + + θ3 −lntouristt−1 − + ∑ α1 q−1 j=1 ∆lnyt−j + ∑ β1 +q−1 j=0 ∆lntouristt−j + + ∑ β2 −q−1 j=0 ∆lntouristt−j − + β3(lnyt−1 − lntouristt−1) + δ1sbt + μt (7) ect is indicated by lnyt−1 − lntouristt−1 which is a correction for short-term disequilibrium conditions. then sbt is a dummy variable that indicates the existence of structural breaks. then, to test the long-term asymmetry in the equation, a long-term null symmetry hypothesis test was carried out from lntouristt using the wald test where h0: θ2 + = θ2 − and ha: θ2 + ≠ θ2 − . in the same way, a short-term asymmetry test of ∆lntouristt is also carried out, where h0 : ∑ βj +q j=0 = ∑ βj −q j=0 and ha : ∑ βj +q j=0 ≠ ∑ βj −q j=0 . the null hypothesis of the symmetric effect test will be rejected if the p − value ≤ α, where α is the level of significance. cointegration test is also performed on the equation, where h0: θ1 = θ2 + = θ2 − = 0 and ha : θ1 ≠ 0; θ2 + ≠ 0; θ2 − ≠ 0. the null hypothesis indicates the condition when there is no cointegration and the alternative hypothesis is the opposite. the cointegration test criterion is if the f-statistics are above the upper critical bound f − stat > i(1)critical), it can be said that there is cointegration or the null hypothesis is rejected. meanwhile, if the f-statistics are below the lower critical bound (f − stat < i(0)critical), it can be said that there is no cointegration or the null hypothesis cannot be rejected. then if the f-statistics are between the upper and lower critical bounds, then setiawati & pamungkas how important is environmentally sustainable tourism? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 207 the cointegration becomes uncertain. to estimate the asymmetric cumulative dynamic multiplier effects of lnyt for each unit change of lntouristt +and lntouristt −, the following equation is used: mh + = ∑ ∂lnyt+j ∂lntouristt + h j=0 ; mh − = ∑ ∂lnyt+j ∂lntouristt − h j=0 , h = 0,1,2, … , … where according to (shahzad et al., 2017) if the value of h → ∞, then the value of mh + and mh − will approach the long-term coefficient. by analyzing the adjustment pathway and the duration of the imbalance of certain positive and negative shocks, it will provide an overview of the short-term and long-term asymmetric adjustment patterns (fousekis et al., 2016; shahzad et al., 2017). result and discussion summary statistics dan unit root test statistical information of the variables used can be seen in table 1. table 1 summary statistics sum. statistics real gdp tourist arrival co2 emissions energy consumption mean 925503.3 4350012 1.189858 98.64756 maximum 5651456 1.58e+07 2.178462 158.83 minimum 7269 313452 0.4022925 35.59 std. dev 1463498 3777920 0.516021 40.85881 the unit root test was performed using the augmented dickey-fuller (adf) test developed by (dickey & fuller, 1979) and the phillips-perron test developed by (phillips & perron, 1988). the unit root test can be seen in table 2. table 2 unit root test adf test pperron test variables level first-difference level first-difference lny -0.745 -7.008*** -0.691 -7.103*** lcoemis -1.807 -5.347*** -1.812 -5.302*** lenergycons -3.114*** -3.155*** lntourist -1.232 -4.164*** -1.039 -4.236*** note. ***p<0.01, **p<0.05, and *p<0.1 based on the tests that have been carried out with a significance level of 5%, it can be seen that the gdp per capita and co2 emissions variables are not stationary at the level but are stationary at the first differences, both based on the adf and perron tests. in comparison, the total energy consumption variable is stationary at the level. setiawati & pamungkas how important is environmentally sustainable tourism? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 208 then the unit root test was also carried out on the structural breaks that had been made using the xtbreak test method by (ditzen et al., 2021), which can be used to estimate and test many known and unknown structural breaks in time series and panel data. the vce(hac) command is used to control autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity problems in the observed structural breaks. a structural break can be said to be significant if the value of t-stat > bai-perron critical value at a certain level, 1%, 5%, or 10%. various results on the stationarity of the existing variables are known, with the majority indicating that structural breaks tend to be more significant over the long period and only a few being significant over the short term. the unit root test on the structural break is shown in table 3. table 3 structural breaks unit root test variable level first-difference np-stat break np-stat break lny 22.08*** 1983; 1993 0.50 1983; 1993 lntourist 27.45*** 1988 3.02 1984; 1993 lncoemiss 59.71*** 1979; 2002 1.75 1980; 1989 lntourist 3.14 1979; 1988 14.74*** 1987; 1994 lnenergycons 18.06*** 1996; 2002 13.38*** 2002 lntourist 13.81*** 1986; 1992 17.66*** 1986; 1992 note. ***p<0.01, **p<0.05, and *p<0.1 optimal lag length test on each dependent variable, a test was done to determine the best lag time for the nonlinear ardl model. table 4 displays the lag length test. based on the results of the optimum lag test, it can be determined that the optimum lag for each of the variables that influence the outcome is 1. table 4 lag length test variabel: lny lag ll lr fpe aic hqic sic 0 61.1561 na 0.000012 -2.83688 -2.79122 -2.7115 1 135.108 14.945* 5.0e-07* -6.00526* -5.82263* -5.50372* 2 138.109 6.0027 6.7e-07 -5.71264 -5.39304 -4.83496 3 142.564 8.9095 8.5e-07 -5.49092 -5.03434 -4.23709 4 146.836 8.5447 1.1e-06 -5.2603 -4.66675 -3.63032 variabel: lncoemiss lag ll lr fpe aic hqic sic 0 207.775 na 7.2e-09 -10.2387 -10.1929* -10.1121* 1 217.897 20.244 6.8e-09* -10.2948* -10.1117 -9.78818 2 222.219 8.6439 8.7e-09 -10.0609 -9.74035 -9.17248 3 233.789 23.141* 7.8e-09 -10.1895 -9.73148 -8.9228 4 237.517 7.4556 1.1e-08 -9.92585 -9.33047 -8.27919 setiawati & pamungkas how important is environmentally sustainable tourism? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 209 table 4 lag length test (con’t) variabel: lnenergycons lag ll lr fpe aic hqic sic 0 123.046 na 5.7e-07 -5.85589 -5.81023 -5.73051 1 237.854 29.622* 5.3e-09* -11.0173* -10.8346* -10.5157* 2 239.836 3.9645 4.7e-09 -10.6749 -10.3553 -9.79726 3 245.435 11.197 5.6e-09 -10.509 -10.0524 -9.25519 4 249.874 8.8782 7.3e-09 -10.2865 -9.69299 -8.65656 note. ll: log likelihood; lr: adjusted sequential lr test statistic; fpe: final prediction error; aic: akaike information criterion; sic: schwartz information criterion; hqic: hannan–quinn information criteria. cointegration test (bounds test) then, a limits test is conducted to assess whether the model's variables are cointegrated or have a long-term link. the results of the cointegration test (bounds test) are shown in table 5. it can be seen that there is cointegration in the three models discussed in this study. table 5 nardl bounds test model specification f-stat α pss-bounds i(0) i(i) lnyt | lntourismt + lntourismt − nardl(1,1) f(2,42) = 5.95*** 10% 2.788 3.540 5% 3.368 4.203 1% 4.800 5.725 lncoemisst | lntourismt + lntourismt − nardl(1,1) f(2,42) = 6.61*** 10% 2.788 3.540 5% 3.368 4.203 1% 4.800 5.725 lnenergyconst | lntourismt + lntourismt − nardl(1,1) f(5,36) = 5.68*** 10% 2.788 3.540 5% 3.368 4.203 1% 4.800 5.725 note. ***p<0.01, **p<0.05, and *p<0.1 then, table 6 illustrates the explanation for the asymmetric effect of nardl based on the three outcomes. based on the estimation results, it can be seen that the asymmetric effect of international tourist arrivals on gdp per capita, co2 emissions, and the total energy consumption is significant in both the short and long term. table 6 asymmetric effects test null hypothesis long-run short-run symmetric effect of tourism on real gdp per capita χ2(i) = 7.37*** [0.000] χ2(i) = 3.71* [0.060] symmetric effect of tourism on co2 emissions χ2(i) = 10.27*** [0.000] χ2(i) = 6.51*** [0.003] symmetric effect of tourism on total energy consumption χ2(i) = 44.43*** [0.000] χ2(i) = 6.91*** [0.002] note. ***p<0.01, **p<0.05, and *p<0.1 setiawati & pamungkas how important is environmentally sustainable tourism? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 210 nardl estimation regression was performed using nardl to estimate the short-term and long-term asymmetric effects of international tourist visits on the dependent variables used, namely real gdp per capita, co2 emissions, and total energy consumption. table 7 short-run and long-run nardl for real gdp per capita outcome variable(1): lny variable coefficient standard error t-statistic p-value short run ∆𝐥𝐧𝐭𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐦𝐣 + 3.38156*** 1.402168 2.41 0.024 ∆𝐥𝐧𝐭𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐦𝐣 − 0.73158*** 1.501854 2.67 0.013 long run 𝐥𝐧𝐭𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐦𝐣 + 3.31228*** 0.493975 2.22 0.036 𝐥𝐧𝐭𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐦𝐣 − 1.2918* 0.870353 1.85 0.076 deterministic trend -0.058030 0.043812 1.32 0.197 sb -0.254651 0.296311 0.86 0.398 ect 0.706023*** 0.123435 5.72 0.000 constanta 6.580389*** 1.181342 5.57 0.000 r2 0.8600 fff(17,25) 9.03*** 0.000 note. ***p<0.01, **p<0.05, and *p<0.1 table 7 shows the regression results for outcome variable 1, namely real gdp per capita. based on the results, it is known that asymmetric international tourist visits (positive and negative) have a significant effect on real gdp per capita both in the short and long term. in the short term, a 1 percent rise in international tourist arrivals will result in a 3.38 percentage point increase in real gdp, while a 1 percent decline in international tourist arrivals would result in a 0.73 percentage point decrease in real gdp, which is statistically significant at the 1% level. meanwhile, in the long term, a 1 percent increase in the number of international visitor arrivals increases real gdp per capita by 3.28 percentage points, and a 1 percent decline in tourist visits decreases real gdp per capita by 1.29 percentage points, which is significant at the 10% significance level. then, based on the table, it reveals that the trend and structural break have no significant effect. however, the error correction term has a significant effect of 74.52 percent at a significance level of 1 percent. it demonstrates a 74.52 percent correction of the imbalance that occurred in the current year, indicating a reasonably swift adjustment to the long-term equilibrium. this study's results align with the research by kumar et al. (2019), which examines the effect of international tourist arrivals on real gdp in cook island. based on the results of the paper, it is known that an increase in international tourist arrivals has a significant effect on increasing real gdp both in the short and long term. furthermore, based on the estimation results, it can be seen that the increase in international tourist arrivals has a greater positive impact when compared to the negative effects caused by the decrease. this result shows that there is strong evidence that shows the justification of the tleg setiawati & pamungkas how important is environmentally sustainable tourism? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 211 hypothesis in indonesia, where international tourist arrivals are a significant factor in economic growth during the period used in the study. table 8 short-run and long-run nardl for co2 emissions outcome variable(2): lncoemiss variable coefficient standard error t-statistic p-value short run ∆𝐥𝐧𝐭𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐦𝐣 + 0.393980 0.367033 1.07 0.294 ∆𝐥𝐧𝐭𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐦𝐣 − 0.27387*** 0.316249 2.09 0.047 long run 𝐥𝐧𝐭𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐦𝐣 + 0.983983*** 0.420041 2.34 0.028 𝐥𝐧𝐭𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐦𝐣 − 0.52598* 0.299143 -1.76 0.091 deterministic trend -0.042087*** 0.043812 1.32 0.197 sb -0.012334 0.296311 0.86 0.398 ect 0.003807 0.123435 5.72 0.000 constanta 0.136654*** 1.181342 5.57 0.000 r2 0.8600 fff(17,25) 2.88*** 0.008 note. ***p<0.01, **p<0.05, and *p<0.1 then the results for the dependent variable co2 emissions are shown in table 8. based on the data, it can be seen that international tourist visits have an asymmetrically significant effect on co2 emissions over the long term, while only the negative partial sums are significant over the short term. in the short term, a 1 percent decrease in the number of international tourist arrivals affects reducing co2 emissions by 0,27 percentage points. meanwhile, in the long term, an increase in the number of tourist visits by 1 percent has an effect of 0.98 percentage points in increasing co2 emissions, and a decrease of 1 percent has a smaller effect in reducing co2 emissions, which is 0,56 percentage points. the coefficient of a significant trend at the 1 percent level is negative, which means it captures weakness in macroeconomic policies, lower investment, and skilled worker emigration (kumar & stauvermann, 2016). the results of this study are in line with the research by lawal et al. (2018), which states that there is a positive long-term relationship between international tourist arrivals and co2 emissions in malaysia from 1972 – 2010. furthermore, based on unwto & international transport forum (2019), the tourism sector is responsible for 5% of the world's carbon emissions, of which 75% are generated by tourist mobility and 25% by onsite consumption, including as much as 21% by accommodation and as much as 4% by tourist activities. one of the factors of high mobility is the use of transportation due to the increased arrivals of international tourists (gühnemann et al., 2021). therefore, transportation is one of the largest contributors to co2 emissions in indonesia. in 2019, based on a report from the ministry of energy and mineral resources (2020), it is known that transportation is the second largest contributor to emissions in indonesia. in that year, transportation setiawati & pamungkas how important is environmentally sustainable tourism? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 212 accounted for 24.64 percent of total carbon dioxide emissions, with an average annual growth of 7.17 percent (ministry of energy and mineral resources, 2020). however, there are no data available to explain the precise distribution of transport-related tourism emissions in indonesia. based on the international visitor arrivals statistics (2018), it is known that in 2018 international tourist arrivals based on the main air entrances were 73.18 percent of the total international tourist arrivals to indonesia. gössling et al. (2015), in their research, explain that airplanes are vehicles that produce the highest emissions among other means of transportation in the tourism sector. in addition, based on indonesia's geographical conditions, where tourism destinations spread across islands, causing planes to become one of the most frequently used transportation modes. other vehicles used in tourism transportation are also able to increase emissions significantly due to the use of fossil fuels which are still dominantly used (jamnongchob et al., 2017; zhang et al., 2019). table 9 short-run and long-run nardl for total energy consumption outcome variable(3): lnenergycons variable coefficient standard error t-statistic p-value short run ∆𝐥𝐧𝐭𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐦𝐣 + 0.337568* 0.200690 1.74 0.094 ∆𝐥𝐧𝐭𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐦𝐣 − 0.024918* 0.172057 1.85 0.076 long run 𝐥𝐧𝐭𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐦𝐣 + 0.5147297*** 0.219658 2.34 0.028 𝐥𝐧𝐭𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐦𝐣 − -0.0244621 0.158727 -0.15 0.879 deterministic trend -0.014554* 0.007925 -1.84 0.079 sb -0.039115 0.036837 -1.06 0.299 ect -0.000163 0.015388 -0.01 0.992 constanta 0.085736*** 0.026213 3.27 0.000 r2 0.7305 fff(17,25) 3.83*** 0.001 note. ***p<0.01, **p<0.05, and *p<0.1 then, based on table 9, it can be seen that asymmetrically (both positive and negative) international tourist visits have a significant effect in the short term, and in the long term, only the increase has a significant effect. in the short term, it is known that an increase in international tourist arrivals by 1 percent has an effect on increasing total energy consumption by 0,33 percentage points, while a decrease of 1 percent only reduces total energy consumption by 0,02 percentage points. the results of this study are in line with research by (katircioglu, 2014) and (katircioǧlu, 2014), which state that in the long term, international tourist visits have a positive and significant effect on the amount of energy used. this study's findings are consistent with (khanal et al., 2021) conclusion that tourism's numerous activities, including transportation and hotel lodging, contribute to a rise in energy consumption. hotels are tourist lodgings that are energy-intensive due to the setiawati & pamungkas how important is environmentally sustainable tourism? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 213 behavior of their tenants, where numerous services and requests for amenities and operations are valid 24 hours a day, 365 days a year (smitt et al., 2021). therefore, hotels are among the top 5 regarding the largest energy consumption in the tertiary building sector (hotel energy solutions, 2011). based on the hotel and other accommodation statistics 2019, it is known that hotels are one of the dominant accommodations in the tourism sector in indonesia, where until 2019, there were 3,516-star hotel businesses out of 29,243 tourism accommodation businesses or around 12.02 percent. meanwhile, for non-star accommodation businesses, there are 12,246, or about 47.60 percent (statistics indonesia, 2019). in indonesia, buildings, including hotels, use 50 percent of energy in general or 70 percent of electricity from total consumption, exceeding industry and transportation. hospitality specifically contributes to national energy use by 3 percent, with a growth rate of 8.6 percent per year (usaid, 2015). with a large number of hotels in indonesia and average growth of 8 percent per year, an energy-saving strategy or the use of environmentally friendly energy is needed (statistics indonesia, 2019). causality and stability test a causality test was conducted using the vector autoregressive (var) model to see how the relationship between the independent variable (x) and the dependent variable (y) was related. by setting the optimum lag of 1, linear and non-linear causality tests were carried out. table 10 symmetric causality symmetric causality panel a: causality test (dependent variable: real pdb per capita) x → y 𝑙𝑛𝑦𝑡 𝑙𝑛𝑡𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑠𝑚𝑡 𝑙𝑛𝑦𝑡 𝜒 2(𝐼) = 3.9859**[0.046] 𝑙𝑛𝑡𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑖𝑠𝑚𝑡 𝜒 2(𝐼) = 4.8541*[0.088] panel b: causality test (dependent variable: co2 emissions) x → y lncoemisst lntourismt lncoemisst χ 2(i) = 9.7846***[0.002] lntourismt χ 2(i) = 4.5376*[0.091] panel c: causality test (dependent variable: total energy consumption) x → y lncoemisst lntourismt lnenergyconst χ 2(i) = 1.9385 [0.164] lntourismt χ 2(i) = 6.7794 ***[0.004] note. ***p<0.01, **p<0.05, and *p<0.1 the symmetrical causality test shows that there is a two-way relationship between real gdp per capita and the number of international tourist arrivals, as well as co2 emissions and the number of international tourist visits. then, it is also known that there is a oneway relationship between international tourist visits and total energy consumption. the results of this study are in line with research by (kumar et al., 2019) which states that there is a two-way causality between the number of international tourist visits and the real value of gdp. setiawati & pamungkas how important is environmentally sustainable tourism? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 214 table 11 asymmetric causality asymmetric causality panel a: causality test (dependent variable: real pdb per capita) x → y lnyt lntourismt + lntourismt − lnyt χ 2(i) = 4.5316**[0.033] χ2(i) = 4.8141*[0.090] lntourismt + χ2(i) = 4.9089**[0.027] χ2(i) = 0.5254 [0.469] lntourismt − χ2(i) =4.6991*[0.095] χ2(i) = 0.61849[0.432] panel b: causality test (dependent variable: co2 emissions) x → y lncoemisst lntourismt + lntourismt − lncoemisst χ 2(i) = 17.475***[0.000] χ2(i) = 2.8871*[0.089] lntourismt + χ2(i) = 6.1338**[0.013] χ2(i) = 1.0723[0.300] lntourismt − χ2(i) = 6.6611**[0.036] χ2(i) = 0.41658[0.519] panel c: causality test (dependent variable: total energy consumption) x → y lnenergyconst lntourismt + lntourismt − lnenergyconst χ 2(i) = 2.5436 [0.111] χ2(i) = 1.384 [0.240] lntourismt + χ2(i) = 7.4913 **[0.024] χ2(i) = 26503 [0.104] lntourismt − χ2(i) = 3.1768* [0.075] χ2(i) = 1.3761 [0.241] note. ***p<0.01, **p<0.05, and *p<0.1. based on the asymmetric causality test that has been carried out, the results obtained are not much different from the symmetric causality test. where it is known that there is a two-way relationship between an increase in international tourist arrivals (lntourismt +) and real gdp per capita, as well as a decrease in international tourist arrivals (lntourismt −) with real gdp per capita. then there is also a two-way relationship between an increase in international tourist arrivals ( lntourismt + ) and co2 emissions and a decrease in international tourist arrivals (lntourismt −) and co2 emissions. finally, there is a one-way relationship between the increase in international tourist arrivals (lntourismt +) to total energy consumption and a decrease in international tourist arrivals (lntourismt −) to total energy consumption. symmetric var(1,1) inverse roots of ar characteristic polynomial asymmetric var(1,1,1) inverse roots of ar characteristic polynomial figure 3 var model stability test for dependent variable real gdp per capita setiawati & pamungkas how important is environmentally sustainable tourism? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 215 symmetric var(1,1) inverse roots of ar characteristic polynomial asymmetric var(1,1,1) inverse roots of ar characteristic polynomial figure 4 var model stability test for dependent variable co2 emission symmetric var(1,1) inverse roots of ar characteristic polynomial asymmetric var(1,1,1) inverse roots of ar characteristic polynomial figure 5 var model stability test for dependent variable total energy consumption the stability of the var model was carried out using the inverse root of the autoregressive characteristic polynomial graph. figures 3, 4, and 5 illustrate the stability of the var model for each dependent variable. based on the figure, it can be seen that all var models are stable. conclusion this study aims to examine the impact of the tourism sector as proxied by the number of tourist visits to indonesia on the environment in terms of co2 emission conditions and total energy consumption, and its effect on economic growth. based on the estimation results, it can be seen that in the short term, an increase in total international tourist setiawati & pamungkas how important is environmentally sustainable tourism? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 216 arrivals has a positive effect on increasing real gdp per capita and total energy consumption, while a decrease has a positive effect on reducing real gdp per capita, co2 emissions, and total energy consumption. in the long term, an increase in total international tourist arrivals is known to have a positive effect on increasing real gdp per capita, co2 emissions, and total energy consumption, then the decrease has a positive effect on reducing real gdp per capita and co2 emissions. where the increase in the number of international tourist visits has a greater effect on real gdp per capita compared to co2 emissions and total energy consumption in the short and long term. based on this study's results, the importance of environmentally sustainable tourism in indonesia can be seen. this is because if it is not handled properly, then along with the increase in the number of international tourists, which has an impact on increasing national income, there will also be an increase in co2 emissions and total energy consumption. while along with the increase in emissions, a portion of the national income will be spent on environmental restoration. therefore, sustainable tourism is very important to be developed optimally in indonesia. because sustainable tourism takes not only full account of the economic benefits, but also the current and future social and environmental impacts, addressing the needs of visitors, industry (tourism), the environment, and host communities (unwto, 2013). there are several policy implications as a consideration of the results of this study. given that an increase in the number of international tourist arrivals has a significant effect on co2 emissions and total energy consumption, the use of carbon-neutral transportation and hybrid energy, as well as the use of cleaner energy, is deemed important. hotels and other accommodation facilities can be encouraged to generate electricity from renewable sources. governments can provide tax breaks or low-cost financing opportunities to purchase and install green technology for businesses in the tourism sector. references antonakakis, n., dragouni, m., eeckels, b., & filis, g. 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(2019). is tourism really affected by logistical operations and environmental degradation? an empirical study from the perspective of thailand. journal of cleaner production, 227, 158–166. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.04.164 https://www.bps.go.id/publication/2020/07/03/4206448bd185bf883b73d414/statistik-hotel-dan-akomodasi-lainnya-di-indonesia-2019.html https://www.bps.go.id/publication/2020/07/03/4206448bd185bf883b73d414/statistik-hotel-dan-akomodasi-lainnya-di-indonesia-2019.html https://doi.org/10.31685/kek.v20i1.181 https://doi.org/10.1177/1938965517735743 https://doi.org/10.18111/9789284416660 https://doi.org/10.18111/9789284412341 https://www.e-unwto.org/doi/book/10.18111/9789284415496 https://www.e-unwto.org/doi/book/10.18111/9789284415496 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2016.04.005 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2015.12.001 https://doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-12-815965-1.00013-2 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.04.164 microsoft word 07-siti bintari jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 2, oktober 2013, hlm.153-162 pengukuran daya saing usaha mikro kecil dan menengah menyongsong masyarakat ekonomi asean siti rahmana bintari1, lilies setiartiti2 1 institute of public policy and economic studies jalan kenari 13 sidoarum iii yogyakarta, indonesia 2fakultas ekonomi, universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta, jl. lingkar selatan, bantul, yogyakarta 55183 indonesia, phone +62 274 387656 e-mail korespondensi: setiartiti.lilies1267@gmail.com naskah diterima: juli 2012; disetujui: mei 2013 abstract: asean economic community (aec) will be held in 2015 is going to create a new situation for national economy, competitiveness and readiness of many parties both from the government or indonesian people themselves. these factors are significantly needed to welcome the asean economic community (aec). the existence of micro small and medium enterprises (umkm) becomes an important base in supporting the economic development in a country or a region. this study aims to measure the competitiveness of umkm in lombok, nusa tenggara barat. in particular, this study focus on finding the competitiveness index of special pottery, weaving, pearls, and food from lombok such as candied seaweed. the method that has been applied in this study is porter diamond element to determine the factors assessed in this study, and likert scale to determine the competitiveness index value. this study found that umkm in lombok have a value of 90 in the competitiveness index. keywords: small enterprises; competitiveness; asean economic community; jel classification: l26 abstrak: masyarakat ekonomi asean (mea) akan berlangsung pada tahun 2015, tentu akan memberi kondisi baru bagi perekonomian nasional, daya saing dan kesiapan dari berbagai pihak, baik itu pemerintah maupun masyarakat indonesia sangat dibutuhkan untuk menyambut mea. keberadaan usaha mikro kecil dan menengah (umkm) menjadi satu pondasi penting untuk menunjang kemajuan perekonomian di suatu negara atau daerah. studi ini dilaksanakan dalam rangka untuk mengukur daya saing umkm khususnya yang berada di lombok nusa tenggara barat. studi ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui indeks daya saing di lombok bidang kerajinan gerabah, mutiara, tenun, oleh-oleh makanan khas lombok yaitu manisan rumput laut. metode studi yang digunakan adalah unsur diamond porter, yaitu untuk menentukan apa saja yang akan dinilai dalam studi ini, sedangkan untuk menentukan bobot nilai indeks daya saing digunakan skala likert. hasil studi menunjukan bahwa umkm di lombok memiliki indeks daya saing yang cukup baik dalam skala likert yaitu 90.. kata kunci: usaha kecil, daya saing; masyarakat ekonomi asean (mea); klasifikasi jel: l26 pendahuluan pertumbuhan umkm di indonesia masih sangat jauh jika dibandingkan dengan negaranegara maju seperti singapura. dipandang dari segi kewilayahan, indonesia memiliki wilayah yang lebih luas jika dibandingkan dengan singapura namun dari segi kualitas sumber daya manusia, indonesia tertinggal jauh dibanding singapura. tingkat daya saing, keterampilan, dan produktivitas juga sangat berbeda, padahal di indonesia kaya akan sumber daya alamnya, namun akibat dari kurangnya kemampuan dalam pemanfaatan sumber daya jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 2, oktober 2013: 153-162 154 alam dengan baik, menyebabkan indonesia banyak mengimpor barang dari luar negeri. tidak jarang kebutuhan pokok seperti beras, harus diimpor dari negara lain meskipun indonesia terkenal dengan sektor pertanian yang masih banyak dapat ditemukan di berbagai daerah dari sabang sampai merauke. di nusa tenggara barat penduduk usia kerja 15-64 tahun banyak yang menjadi pengangguran. hal ini disebabkan jumlah penduduk yang semakin meningkat dari tahun ke tahun dan ipm yang rendah bila dibandingkan dengan daerah lain. sebagian besar penduduk menjadi tki karena susahnya mendapat lapangan pekerjaan. permasalahan yang terjadi tentunya sangat memungkinkan sektor usaha untuk menciptakan lapangan kerja, mengingat sektor usaha yang ada di nusa tenggara barat sebagian besar bersifat padat karya. data tahun 2012 pada tabel 2 menunjukkan tingkat pengangguran di nusa tenggara barat didominasi oleh lulusan diploma dan perguruan tinggi. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa tingkat pendidikan tinggi namun belum sesuai dengan kualitas sumber daya manusia yang dibutuhkan dunia kerja pada saat ini. tabel 1. urutan daya saing 55 negara negara 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 amerika serikat 1 1 1 1 1 singapura 4 2 3 3 2 hongkong 10 6 2 2 3 swiss 9 14 8 8 6 australia 7 4 9 6 12 cina 27 22 29 18 15 taiwan 17 12 11 17 18 malaysia 21 16 26 22 23 india 42 30 33 27 27 korea (selatan) 32 31 27 32 29 thailand 28 26 25 29 33 fhilipina 41 43 40 42 45 indonesia 49 49 50 52 54 venezuela 51 51 51 53 55 sumber: international insttitute for management development,world competitiveness yearbook, 2008 dalam bukulanskap ekonomi indonesia halaman 36. tabel 2. tingkat pengangguran terbuka (tpt) kabupaten/kota menurut pendidikan (persen) agustus 2012 unemployment regency/municipality educational attainment (percent) august 2012 kabupaten/kota pendidikan regency/municipality educational <=sd sltp slta diploma & pt (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) lombok barat 9,2 4,61 19,22 0 lombok tengah 11,76 10,13 12,41 23,54 lombok timur 2,77 4,32 12,84 14,56 sumbawa 8,13 6,81 8,03 12,42 dompu 1,26 6,92 8,05 9,51 bima 10,66 3,46 8,81 6,83 sumbawa barat 7,06 10,86 8,28 0 lombok utara 6,25 2,2 11,35 0 kota bima 9,71 9,35 11,14 2,37 kota mataram 4,7 7,38 10,7 7,85 ntb 8,00 6,33 11,44 10,12 sumber: ntb.bps.go.id diakses pada 01 oktober pukul 22.51 wib pengukuran daya saing usaha ... (siti rahmana bintari, lilies setiartiti) 155 di nusa tenggara barat potensi keberadaan sawah dan ladang untuk bertani masih sangat banyak, dan sebagian besar mata pencaharian penduduk yaitu sebagai petani. lombok, nusa tenggara barat juga memiliki daya tarik tersendiri karena banyaknya tempat wisata eksotis yang bisa dikunjungi, begitu juga dengan perdagangan peluang untuk usaha sangat besar di daerah nusa tenggara barat karena masih dikatakan minimnya inovasi yang digunakan masyarakat, rata-rata masih mengikuti yang menjadi usaha pesaingnya. jadi, tingkat pendirian usaha sejenis dilakukan tanpa adanya inovasi, inovasi yang dilakukan suatu perusahaan akan menjadikan usaha itu semakin dikenal dan diminati masyarakat. hal ini jarang dilakukan sektor usaha di nusa tenggara barat. keadaan seperti ini biasanya dapat kita temui di daerah pedesaan yang masih minim informasi. tetapi pada saat ini, sebagian besar para pelaku usaha dan semua yang terlibat dapat melakukan inovasi sesuai dengan perkembangan zaman dan teknologi yang canggih informasi apapun dapat diakses. para investor dari luar, biasanya yang akan melakukan inovasi sehingga keragaman usaha di daerah nusa tenggara barat sekarang lebih beragam. pola pikir masyarakat setempat mengenai pentingnya mengembangkan sektor usaha/ perdagangan semakin maju dan berkembang sesuai dengan perkembangan zaman dan teknologi, sehingga kreatifitas dan persaingan usaha semakin dapat dirasakan di antara para pelaku usaha di nusa tenggara barat. keberadaan industri kecil dan menengah di nusa tenggara barat akan membantu pemerintah dalam meningkatkan pendapatan asli daerah berupa pajak yang dibayarkan oleh pelaku usaha sesuai dengan penghasilannya. beberapa sektor usaha yang hingga saat ini memberikan kontribusi terhadap perekonomian di nusa tenggara barat dilihat dari volume dan nilai ekspor yang dihasilkan oleh usaha mikro kecil dan menengah. peningkatan kualitas diperlukan untuk menghadapi masyarakat ekonomi asean dalam kategori usaha menengah bisa terus berkembang dan memiliki daya saing yang cukup baik. dalam hal ini persaingan merupakan suatu hal yang sangat penting karena untuk memastikan bahwa setiap orang dan negara akan melakukan apa yang paling sesuai mereka lakukan (suharsih dan asih sriwinarti, 2012:1). sebagaimana yang ada dalam 4 dimensi porter yang akan digunakan dalam studi ini yaitu dimensi kondisi faktor, kondisi permintaan, strategi perusahaan dan struktur persaingan, industri pendukung dan industri terkait. keempat dimensi ini dijadikan acuan dalam pengukuran tingkat daya saing usaha mikro kecil dan menengah yang ada di nusa tenggara barat. sumber pendapatan daerah sebagian besar berasal dari sektor pariwisata, tidak menutup kemungkinan hal ini akan memberikan dampak positif bagi umkm sehingga bisa memberikan peningkatan pendapatan dan berkembangnya umkm yang ada di lombok. ada lima belas jenis produk yang dimasukkan ke dalam kategori cept (common effective preferential tarif) yang pengurangan tarifnya dipercepat dalam jangka lima sampai dengan delapan tahun. kategori ini pada mulanya tidak memasukkan produk-produk pertanian dan jasa. namun pada pertemuan menteri ekonomi asean di chiang mai pada bulan september 1994 disepakati dimasukkannya produk-produk pertanian ke dalam cept (basuki, 2000). studi wiyadi (2008) mengenai pengukuran daya saing industri kecil menengah (ikm) di jawa tengah, menggunakan model diamond porter yang terdiri dari 4 macam dimensi yaitu: dimensi kondisi faktor, dimensi kondisi permintaan, dimensi strategi perusahaan dan struktur persaingan, dimensi industri pendukung dan industri terkait. dari keempat dimensi faktor masing-masing memiliki bagian yang menjadi variabel penghitungan dari rumus yang digunakan dalam studinya, yang terdiri dari 400 responden yaitu pengusaha manufaktur di jawa tengah, banyak menggunakan bahan baku dan tenaga kerja lokal, serta termasuk dalam industri kecil menengah. sedangkan studi irawati, dkk (2012) pengukuran daya saing kota dilakukan dengan mengambil variabel perekonomian daerah, variabel infrastruktur dan sumber daya alam, serta variabel sumber daya manusia. pengumpulan data dilakukan dengan survei lapangan (primer) dan sekunder (dari lembaga-lembaga jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 2, oktober 2013: 153-162 156 pemerintahan daerah). pengukuran daya saing dilakukan dengan ahp (analytic hierarcy process). dalam jurnal yang berjudul “memperkuat ukm dalam menghadapi masyarakat ekonomi asean tahun 2015” menjelaskan bahwa pada saat mea tahun 2015 diterapkan, diperkirakan akan terjadi perubahan perilaku pasar dengan ciri-ciri: (1) karakteristik pasar yang dinamis, kompetisi global, dan bentuk organisasi yang cenderung membentuk jejaring (network); (2) tingkat industri yang pengorganisasian produksinya fleksibel dengan pertumbuhan yang didorong oleh inovasi/pengetahuan; didukung teknologi digital; sumber kompetisi pada inovasi, kualitas, waktu, dan biaya, mengutamakan research and development, serta mengembangkan aliansi dan kolaborasi dengan bisnis lainnya. metode penelitian jenis dan sumber data data yang digunakan pada studi ini adalah data sekunder dan data primer. sumber data sekunder diperoleh dari dinas perindustrian dan perdagangan lombok nusa tenggara barat, badan pusat statistik, dan dinas koperasi usaha mikro kecil dan menengah lombok nusa tenggara barat sedangkan data primer diperoleh dari kuisioner dan wawancara langsung dengan umkm yang ada di lombok nusa tenggara barat. data yang diolah berupa data primer, sedangkan data sekunder sebagai pelengkap argumentasi penulis. analisis data teknik analisis yang digunakan penulis untuk mengukur daya saing umkm di lombok menggunakan model diamond porter: c1 = ∑ ∑ ∑ wijk. zijl (wiyadi, 2008) zijkl = di mana: c1 adalah rata-rata indeks daya saing industri; wijk adalah bobot nilai daya saing unsur i, dimensi j, kelompok industri k ; x adalah hasil penjumlahan dari setiap unsur i, j, k, l; i = 1, 2, ... j = 1, 2, ... 4 k = 1, 2 l = 1, 2, ... nk n = nk = 40 ∑i ∑jwijk = ∑jwjk = 1 daya saing umkm diukur dengan menggunakan indeks yang dibentuk berdasarkan keempat dimensi diamond porter, yaitu: dimensi kondisi faktor, dimensi kondisi permintaan, dimensi strategi perusahaan dan struktur persaingan, serta dimensi industri pendukung dan industri terkait. nilai indeks daya saing umkm ditentukan oleh bobot setiap unsur dalam setiap dimensi. analisis pemeringkatan dimensi daya saing diperlukan untuk mengetahui kepentingannya dalam pembentukan indeks. studi ini menggunakan pemeringkatan bobot nilai jawaban pertanyaan dalam rentang 0-5, semakin mendekati angka 5 berarti responden memiliki respon positif dan memenuhi kriteria untuk diberi bobot nilai 5, dan jika mendekati angka 0 berarti jawaban dari responden tidak memenuhi kriteria dapat bersaing di dalam menghadapi masyarakat ekonomi asean (mea). kriteria yang dimaksud adalah apabila jawaban dari responden positif dari pertanyaan yang diajukan maka semakin mendekati angka 5, namun apabila jawaban dari responden tidak memenuhi kriteria, seperti kurangnya tenaga kerja, alat-alat yang digunakan masih tradisional, bahan baku sulit ditemukan, dan permintaan lebih didominasi oleh pihak domestik tanpa adanya kerja sama dengan pihak lain, baik itu sesama pengusaha, pihak asing maka jawaban yang buruk akan memiliki bobot yang semakin sedikit bahkan 0. kriteria penilaian bobot jawaban: 0 : sangat buruk; 1 : buruk; 2 : kurang; 3 : cukup; 4 : bagus; 5 : sangat bagus sejumlah 40 sampel studi ini dibagikan kuisioner dan wawancara langsung pada umkm. studi ini terbagi dalam usaha jasa yang akan mendukung sektor pariwisata di lombok untuk terus berkembang ke depannya, di antaranya usaha kerajinan gerabah, usaha kerajinan pengukuran daya saing usaha ... (siti rahmana bintari, lilies setiartiti) 157 kain tenun khas lombok, kerajinan mutiara, dan oleh-oleh khas lombok. selanjutnya dari ke empat dimensi diamond porter di atas, penulis mengambil bobot nilai indeks dari ke empat dimensi diamond porter, dari setiap dimensi akan diambil salah satu yang menjadi bagian dari sampel studi. dimensi kondisi faktor yang terdiri dari jumlah sumber daya manusia, kondisi permintaan terdiri dari permintaan domestik, dimensi strategi perusahaan dan struktur persaingan terdiri dari teknologi karena terkait dengan inovasi yang akan dilakukan dalam menghadapi masyarakat ekonomi asean, dimensi industri penyokong dan industri terkait terdiri dari bahan baku karena dalam dimensi ini terkait dengan adanya industri hulu dan hilir yang akan saling membantu dalam penyediaan bahan baku untuk kegiatan produksi. hasil dan pembahasan model diamond porter digunakan dalam menganalisis data dengan beberapa penyesuaian sebagai berikut: 1) unsur biaya tenaga kerja dan biaya bahan pada dimensi kondisi faktor sudah termasuk dalam penghitungan biaya per unit produk. perusahaan akan lebih berdaya saing manakala menggunakan bahan baku lokal dan tenaga kerja lokal karena lebih efisien. 2) unsur ukuran pasar pada dimensi kondisi permintaan lebih menggambarkan kinerja bukan menggambarkan daya saing. 3) unsur akses atau cakupan pasar pada dimensi kondisi permintaan lebih menggambarkan potensi daya saing. sehingga bagi perusahaan yang mempunyai akses pasar ke pasar internasional akan lebih berdaya saing. 4) unsur inovasi pada dimensi strategi perusahaan dan struktur persaingan merupakan wujud dari kewirausahaan yang menjadi salah satu penentu keberhasilan usaha dan daya saing. 5) perusahaan akan lebih berdaya saing jika mempunyai kemampuan menjalin kerjasama secara baik dengan perusahaan lain, seperti penyedia bahan, para perantara, media promosi, dan sebagainya (wiyadi,2008). 6) deskripsi setiap unsur sampel teori diamond porter yang diambil sebagai studi: tabel 3. deskripsi unsur tenaga kerja unsur masbagik, lombok timur penujak, lombok tengah banyumulek, lombok barat jumlah tenaga kerja hari biasa 2-3 orang, jika ada pesanan 50-100 orang hari biasa 2 orang, jika ada pesanan 30 orang. hari biasa 10 orang, jika ada pesanan 150 orang. pendidikan rata-rata tenaga kerja tidak sekolah-smu tidak sekolah-smu smp-smu upah/gaji tenaga kerja tergantung pesanan, untuk hari biasa rp200.000-rp300.000 jika ada pesanan yang lebih banyak pendapatan rp1.000.000 untuk saat ini pendapatan rata-rata rp150.000/ hari pendapatan rata-rata rp500.000-rp1.000.000 jumlah jam kerja/hari 8 jam/hari 5 jam/hari 8 jam/hari tabel 4. deskripsi unsur teknologi unsur penakak, lombok timur penujak, lombok tengah banyumulek, lombok barat teknologi tradisional tradisional tradisional dan modern produk yang dihasilkan peralatan dapur seperti kendi, cobek, tungku, celengan kendi, perabotan rumah, vas bunga, hiasan dinding, dll hiasan dinding, perabotan rumah, kendi besar untk ekspor. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 2, oktober 2013: 153-162 158 tabel 5. deskripsi unsur permintaan domestik unsur masbagik, lombok timur penujak, lombok tengah banyumulek, lombok barat tingkat permintaan untuk saat ini lebih diminati oleh masyarakat lokal dibanding masyarakat luar negeri, permintaan gerabah menurun sejak adanya bom bunuh diri di bali. sama halnya dengan desa penujak, jumlah permintaan gerabah mengalami penurunan, bahkan banyak usaha yang sudah gulung tikar. permintaan dari domestik dan luar negeri masih tetap berjalan, walaupun mengalami penurunan, tetapi tetap banyak diminati oleh wisatawan domestik maupun mancanegara. negara tujuan ekspor arab saudi, new zealand, jerman, italia, tunisia australia, new zealand, argentina, prancis tunisia, australia, singapura, jerman. tabel 6. deskripsi unsur bahan baku unsur masbagik, lombok timur penujak, lombok tengah banyumulek lombok barat bahan baku bahan baku berasal dari desa sepolong bahan baku dari gunung bali be bahan baku dari gunung sasak biaya untuk bahan baku tanah liat rp.10.000-15.000/karung jika dibeli 1 mobil truk bahan baku yang kering rp.600.000-800.000, tanah liat basah rp.300.000 untuk 1 mobil truktanah campuran berupa debu rp.10.000/karung jerami dan kayu bakar masing-masing rp.10.000 tanah liat rp.20.000/karung jerami rp.5.000/ikat tanah liat rp.15.000/karung jerami 10.000/ikat kayu bakar 15.000/ikat untuk mencari bobot nilai dari kuisioner dalam bentuk pernyataan ataupun wawancara menggunakan skala likert sebelum digabungkan dengan model diamond porter untuk mencari indeks daya saing, maka tahapannya adalah sebagai berikut: diketahui skala yang ditetapkan untuk jawaban indeks daya saing adalah rentang 0-5 maka: skor kriterium= nilai skala jumlah responden = 5 40 = 20 selanjutnya adalah membuat rating scale dari skor kriterium yang sudah ada: 160–200 : daya saing sangat bagus; 120–160 : daya saing bagus; 80–120 : daya saing cukup; 40–80 : daya saing kurang; 0–40 : tidak ada daya saing. jawaban 1 sebanyak 12 maka 12x1 = 12 jawaban 2 sebanyak 75 maka 75x2 = 150 jawaban 3 sebanyak 37 maka 37x3 = 111 jawaban 4 sebanyak 21 maka 21x4 = 84 jawaban 5 sebanyak 15 maka 15x5 = 75 total skor = 432 interpretasi skor penghitungan: untuk mendapatkan interpretasi skor penghitungan maka harus diketahui x (skor tertinggi) dan y (skor terendah) yang telah ditetapkan dalam rentan 0-5: x = skor tertinggi likert x jumlah responden y = skor terendah likert x jumlah responden jumlah item x = 75 x 40 = 3.000 jumlah item y = 12 x 40 = 480 selanjutnya menentukan rentang interval dengan rumus : i 200 skore skala likert maka: i 200 5 40 pengukuran daya saing usaha ... (siti rahmana bintari, lilies setiartiti) 159 tabel 7. daftar umkm kerajinan (gerabah, tenun, mutiara, dan oleh-oleh khas lombok) di lombok nusa tenggara barat no nama industri tenaga kerja teknologi permintaan bahan baku 1. home industry 2 1 2 3 2. dian rana shop 4 2 2 3 3. ud. lombok mulya 4 2 3 2 4. sasak craft 4 2 2 2 5. home industry 2 1 2 2 6. sasak poetry 3 2 4 3 7. yatni art shop 2 2 3 2 8. home industry 2 1 2 2 9. home industry 2 1 2 2 10. home industry 2 1 2 2 11. damar wulan art shop 3 3 3 3 12. media art shop 2 2 3 2 13. lombok poetry centre 3 2 3 2 14. home industry 2 1 2 2 15. home industry 2 1 2 2 16. rismunka astuti art shop 4 3 4 4 17. oji art shop 3 2 2 3 18. lestari art shop 3 2 3 2 19. noviana dewiart shop 3 2 3 3 20. pottery art shop 2 2 2 2 21. budaya cipta 3 2 2 3 22. home industry 2 1 2 2 23. berkat sabar 2 2 2 3 24. banyu wisata 3 2 2 2 25. bintang rezeki 2 2 2 2 26. annan pottery 3 2 2 2 27. zaky art shop 3 2 2 3 28. pasar senibanyumulek 3 2 3 3 29. ud.sri tami 2 2 2 3 30. home industry 2 1 2 2 31. young art shop 4 5 4 4 32. rinjani art shop 4 4 4 5 33. sasak art shop 4 4 5 4 34. home industry 3 1 3 4 35. home industry 2 1 2 3 36. home industry 2 1 3 3 37. ibrazi 4 5 5 5 38. lombok jelita 5 4 5 5 39. rindu alam 4 5 4 5 40. phoenix food 5 5 5 5 rentang interval antara 0–200 : 160–200 : daya saing sangat bagus 120–160 : daya saing bagus 80–120 : daya saing cukup 40–80 : daya saing kurang 0-40 : tidak ada daya saing penyelesaian: bobot nilai daya saing (x) 100 100 = 90 jumlah indeks daya saing keseluruhan untuk umkm di lombok adalah 90 dalam kategori cukup baik untuk menyambut masyarakat ekonomi asean. indeks daya saing umkm secara keseluruhan memiliki daya saing cukup baik yaitu 90. sedangkan usaha rumah tangga (home indus jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 2, oktober 2013: 153-162 160 try) memiliki daya saing sebesar 63,8 yang berarti bahwa daya saing kurang. usaha kerajinan gerabah sebesar 10,53 yang berarti bahwa tidak ada daya saing. ini disebabkan usaha kerajinan sejenis pada saat ini sudah jarang peminatnya, dan sebagian besar dari para pengusaha yang memiliki toko menggantungkan pembuatan gerabah kepada usaha rumah tangga di atas. usaha kerajinan kain tenun dan songket memiliki indeks daya saing sebesar 113,3 yang berarti bahwa usaha ini memiliki daya saing yang cukup baik. usaha kerajinan mutiara memiliki daya saing sebesar 87,5 yang berarti juga memiliki daya saing yang cukup baik. usaha oleh-oleh khas lombok (manisan) rumput laut phoenix food memiliki indeks daya saing 200 yang berarti bahwa memiliki daya saing yang sangat bagus untuk menghadapi masyarakat ekonomi asean 2015, karena dari segi tenaga kerja, teknologi, permintaan, dan bahan baku semua dalam kategori sudah maju dan modern dengan jumlah permintaan yang terus meningkat karena banyaknya pembeli dan pengunjung yang tertarik untuk jajanan sehat khas lombok ini. simpulan indeks daya saing umkm secara keseluruhan memiliki daya saing cukup yaitu 90. masyarakat ekonomi asean menjadi suatu fenomena baru dalam masyarakat karena akan adanya tabel 8. nilai daya saing umkm di lombok nusatenggara barat no nama usaha nilai daya saing keterangan 1. usaha rumah tangga (gerabah dan mutiara) 63,89 daya saing kurang 2. usaha kerajinan gerabah dian rana shop ud lombok mulya sasak craft sasak poetry yatni art shop damar wulan art shop media art shop lombok poetry centre rismunka astuti art shop oji art shop lestari art shop budaya cipta berkat sabar banyu wisata bintang rezeki annan pottery zaky art shop pasar seni banyumulek ud sri tami 10,53 tidak ada daya saing 3. usaha kerajinan tenun dan songket young art shop rinjani art shop sasak art shop 113,3 daya saing cukup 4. usaha kerajinan mutiara ibrazi lombok jelita rindu alam 87,5 daya saing cukup 5. usaha oleh-oleh (makanan) phoenix food 200 daya saing sangat bagus pengukuran daya saing usaha ... (siti rahmana bintari, lilies setiartiti) 161 suatu iklim perekonomian baru yang belum pernah ditemui sebelumnya, khususnya di sini bagi umkm di lombok. pentingnya persiapan baik itu dari pemerintah dan maupun para pelaku umkm untuk meningkatkan kualitas dan kuantitas usahanya agar bisa terus bersaing dalam masyarakat ekonomi asean. meningkatan kualitas umkm adalah dengan cara mensosialisasikan umkm dari pemerintah daerah ke daerah terpencil, terutama usaha kerajinan gerabah di lombok yang saat ini terancam terkikis dan hilang oleh zaman, pelestarian budaya dan adat istiadat di lombok juga perlu dilakukan karena lombok juga dikenal akan keragaman budaya yang bisa dijadikan ikon untuk ditunjukkan dan dipertahankan dalam menghadapi masyarakat ekonomi asean. tantangan yang dialami dalam menghadapi masyarakat ekonomi asean adalah belum adanya informasi mengenai masyarakat ekonomi asean (mea) yang didapatkan oleh para pengrajin dan pengusaha baik itu dari pemerintah maupun usaha untuk mencari informasi mengenai adanya masyarakat ekonomi asean pada tahun mendatang. dilihat segi kesiapan rata-rata para pengrajin dan pengusaha belum memiliki persiapan untuk menghadapi masyarakat ekonomi asean karena beberapa faktor diantaranya peralatan-peralatan yang masih tradisional, kurangnya modal, berkurangnya permintaan dari luar negeri, dan sumber daya manusia yang masih tertinggal jauh untuk pendidikan, pemikiran yang kurang terbuka, seperti kesadaran akan pentingnya pendidikan bagi generasi penerusnya, kemampuan bahasa yang terbatas (hanya memahami bahasa sasak saja). peran pemerintah dalam mendukung umkm menghadapi masyarakat ekonomi asean masih sangat kurang. sosialisasi dan bantuan yang diberikan pemerintah sangat kurang sehingga umkm terkesan seperti tidak hidup. meskipun umkm merupakan usaha mandiri tetapi pemerintah seharusnya berpartisipasi untuk memberikan sosialisasi mengenai adanya masyarakat ekonomi asean pada tahun 2015 mendatang, sehingga dapat menambah pengetahuan para pelaku bisnis dan pengrajin dalam meningkatkan kesiapan dan kretifitas mengembangkan usahanya. daftar pustaka himpunan seminar polugri. (tt). diplomasi indonesia menghadapi pembangunan nasional dan tantangan global. jakarta: polugri. basuki, a.t. (2000). analisis tingkat tarif proteksi efektif di sektor industri indonesia tahun 1995. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan, vol. 1, hlm 29-37 irawati, dkk. (2012). pengukuran tingkat daya saing daerah berdasarkan variabel perekonomian daerah, variabel infrastruktur dan sumber daya alam, serta variabel sumber daya manusia di wilayah provinsi sulawesi tenggara. jurnal j@ti volume vii nomor 1 wiyadi. (2008). pengukuran indeks daya saing industri kecil menengah (ikm) di jawa tengah. jurnal siasat bisnis. hal 77-92 badan perencanaan pembangunan daerah nusa tenggara barat. ntb dalam angka 2011. diakses dari http://bappeda.ntbprov.go. id. pada 16 oktober 2012 pukul 10.30 wita. badan pusat statistik nusa tenggara barat. banyaknya perusahaan, tenaga kerja, dan nilai menurut kelompok industri 2012. diakses dari http://www.ntb.bps.go.id. pada 01 juni 2012 pukul 15:50 wib. badan pusat statistik nusa tenggara barat. jumlah penduduk 15 tahun ke atas yang bekerja menurut lapangan usaha agustus 2012. diakses dari http://www.ntb.bps. go.id. pada 01 juni 2012 pukul 15:33wib. badan pusat statistik nusa tenggara barat. mutiara ntb menuju pasar dunia. diakses dari www.ntbprov.go.id. pada 21 november 2012 pukul 22.31 wib. badan pusat statistik nusa tenggara barat. upah minimum provinsi menurut kabupaten/kota per bulan tahun 2012. diakses dari http://www.ntb.bps.go.id. pada 01 juni 2012 pukul 15:48 wib. badan pusat statistik nusa tenggara barat. volume dan nilai ekspor dirinci menurut jenis barang 2012. diakses dari http:// www. ntb. bps.go.id. pada 17 september 2012 pukul 14.30 wib. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 2, oktober 2013: 153-162 162 bank indonesia. uu no 20 tahun 2008 tentang usaha mikro kecil dan menengah. diakses dari http://www.bi.go.id pada 31 mei 2012 pukul 16:14 wib. panduan wisata lombok. destinasi pariwisata. diakses dari http://lombok.panduanwisata. id. pada 19 november pukul 21.45 wib. panduan wisata lombok. kerajinan lombok. diakses dari http://lombok.panduanwisata. id. pada 19 november pukul 21.45 wib. panduan wisata lombok. kuliner khas lombok. diakses dari http://lombok.panduanwisata. id. pada 19 november pukul 21.45 wib. panduan wisata lombok. oleh-oleh khas lombok. diakses dari http://lombok. panduanwisata.id. pada 19 november 2012 pukul 20.30 wib. porter, michael e. the competitive advantage of the nation.http://www.scribd.com/doc/ 210666948/makalah-seminar-daya-saing. diakses pada 30 september 2012 pukul 01.30 wib rajasa, hatta. master plan percepatan perekonomian indonesia harus berjalan dan selesai. http://www.republika.co.id/berita/ekonomi/ma kro/12/07/15/m772kg-hatta mp3ei-harusberjalan-dan-selesai. diakses pada 24 mei 2012 pukul 16:27 wib sunarsih, sri dan asih sriwinarti. (2012). daya saing produk ekspor di era perdagangan bebas. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 13 no 1, april. tambunan t.h. (2012). peluang, tantangan, dan ancaman bagi umkm indonesia dalam era cafta dan me-asean. http://www.umk.ac.id. diakses pada 16 september 2012 pukul 13.00 wib universitas negeri medan. analisis faktorfaktor yang mempengaruhi investasi di indonesia. http://digilib.unimed.ac.id. diakses pada 28 mei 2012 pukul 20:35 wib wisata pulau lombok, sentra industri kerajinan gerabah di banyumulek. www.wisatapulaulombok.org.diakses pada 16 oktober 2012 pukul 15.34 wita jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 23 no 2, october 2022 article type: research paper the determinants of islamic banks’ nonperforming financing in the small-medium enterprises (smes) sector faaza fakhrunnas and lak lak nazhat el hasanah abstract: the performance of islamic banks in financing activities is determined by many factors, including macroeconomic variables and internal factors, such as the financial performance of the bank. the study investigates the determinant of non-performing financing (npf) of islamic banks in indonesia, particularly in small-medium enterprises (smes) sector. adopting the panel data analysis, the data comprise 33 provinces in indonesia starting from 2016m1 to 2021m07, equal to a 2211 observation period. the study reveals that the size of the bank’s asset and financing to deposit ratio (fdr) of islamic banks has a significant relationship to npf value in smes sector, and the impact remains unchanged in the period before and during the covid-19 pandemic. from the regional viewpoint, the size of the bank’s assets also has a significant influence on npf in the provinces located in java but not outside of java. as a policy implication, the study suggests that the size of a bank’s assets must be enhanced with prudent risk management in financing activities in the sme sector. surely, the policy can be implemented in a top-down approach through government and financial authority; then it also can be applied bottom-up approach through the bank’s business activities. finally, as the limitation of the research, the study only utilizes limited variables and uses a single-country analysis which can be improved and extended for future study. keywords: islamic bank; smes; panel data analysis; npf jel classification: e00; g00; g20 introduction as an intermediary institution, islamic banks have a pivotal role in channeling the funds from the deficit unit to the surplus unit. this role can also ascertain how islamic banks can support the deficit units to perform an economic activity. however, during the current economic turmoil due to the covid-19 pandemic effect either in the financial and real sectors, the performance of economic players, including islamic banks in the financial system is then questioned on how the performance of islamic banks financing to the deficit units, especially in response to the regional inflation. theoretically, haberler (1974) stated that inflation is a reflection of an increase in the price of goods and services. in terms of the relationship between inflation and the business cycle, haberler (1974) added that a moderate level of inflation possibly increases the level of economic growth as long as the price of goods and services in the market is still above the affiliation: department of economics, faculty of economics and business, universitas islam indonesia, special region of yogyakarta, indonesia *correspondence: 173130101@uii.ac.id this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v23i2.15562 citation: fakhrunnas, f., & el hasanah, l. n. (2022). the determinants of islamic banks’ non-performing financing in the small-medium enterprises (smes) sector. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 23(2), 220-230. article history received: 19 jul 2022 revised: 22 sep 2022 accepted: 07 oct 2022 https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=c_n7nwkaaaaj&hl=en https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=pojmtmgaaaaj https://economics.uii.ac.id/ https://economics.uii.ac.id/ https://economics.uii.ac.id/ https://economics.uii.ac.id/ https://economics.uii.ac.id/ mailto:173130101@uii.ac.id http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/15562 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v23i2.15562&domain=pdf fakhrunnas & el hasanah the determinants of islamic banks’ non-performing financing … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 221 cost of production. moreover, kiyotaki and moore (1997) explained that the economic condition affects the credit activities performed by the borrowers and lenders. during unstable financial circumstances, borrowers’ ability to return their loans is uncertain, whereas during a stable and growing economy, the ability to return the loan will be higher. in contrast, bernanke, gertler, and gilchrist (1998) argued that credit activities are the one that influences macroeconomic conditions, referring to the 1930s great depression experience in which the credit market exacerbated the macroeconomic condition at that time. both arguments show that macroeconomic conditions can influence credit risk, but at the same time, npls at a certain level can also worsen the economic condition. from the perspective of business performance, internal financial performance determines how a financial institution, such as banking performance, responds to the economic circumstance. for instance, boyd and runkle (1993) stated that bank size has a pivotal role in banking performance. the term “too big to fail” explains that a big-size bank is less likely to be bankrupt compared to the smaller one. the big-size bank has the power to diversify the financing activities, better liquidity to manage the asset as well as possibly create a contagious effect when it is bankrupt, and then the bank also tends to be protected by the government. in the opposite argument, a big-size bank possibly takes a position as a risk-taker which means the bank has more risk exposure than a smaller one (boyd & runkle, 1993). therefore, big-size bank has more risk, and it potentially creates an adverse effect on banking performance, such as a high non-performing financing rate when the bank fails to manage the risk. regarding the issue of the bank’s risk performance, the question is then arising of how the bank can manage the risk, particularly in the non-performing risk in the smes’ financing. therefore, this study is aimed to investigate the determinant of indonesian islamic banks’ non-performing financing in the sme sector. the reasons to select indonesia as the object of study is spurred by three reasons; (1) indonesia is considered to have a robust financial system that can be seen from the global financial crisis history in which the country could defend and recover well from the crisis either in global financial crisis 2008 and asian financial crisis 1997/1998 (khattak et al., 2021). (2) indonesia had a dual banking system since the first establishment of the non-interest-based bank in 1992 (islamic bank was renowned as bank performing non-interest banking activity at that time by the formal regulation under national law no.7 of 1992). currently, islamic banks are comprehensively regulated under national law no. 21 of 2008 and also have a market share of more than 5% in the indonesian banking industry (khattak et al., 2021). (3) furthermore, indonesia is one of the most developed countries in islamic finance development, including in the islamic banking sector (ernst and young, 2016), and indonesia is also confirmed as the most populous moslem country that makes the country has a prospective market for the growth of the islamic finance development (trinugroho et al., 2018). (4) smes in indonesia have a significant role in economic development where about 90% of employment is created in the smes sector, and the contribution of smes to economic growth reaches roughly 10% (asmy et al., 2020). fakhrunnas & el hasanah the determinants of islamic banks’ non-performing financing … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 222 the contribution of the study consists of two aspects. firstly, the study comprehends the previous literature conducted by iriani & yuliadi (2015), ibrahim & rahmati (2017), who stated that the bank's non-performing loan is influenced by macroeconomic variables, including the inflation rate. the aforementioned findings are also the same as lin et al. (2016), who studied the indonesian banking industry and concluded that islamic banks’ non-performing financing did not have a significant relationship to the inflation rate but not to the conventional bank. on the other hand, aviliani et al. (2015), nursechafia and abduh (2014), erdinç and gurov (2016), and firmansyah and gunardi (2018) found that inflation has a negative and significant effect on islamic banks’ non-performing financing. in contrast, klein (2013) and abid et al. (2014) found it has a positive and significant relationship to the bad loan of banks. in addition, a study that concerns the issue of financing activities in smes is already conducted by raza et al. (2017), who adopted a qualitative approach that emphasizes the issue of the opportunity of the islamic banking sector to finance smes. the similar issues are also studied by fakhrunnas (2020) and priyadi et al. (2021), who concluded that inflation and economic growth affect smes’ financing. however, the studies only focus on islamic rural bank operation, which has less dominant financing to smes compared to an islamic bank. moreover, widarjono et al. (2020) stated that a larger islamic bank has more benefits in diversifying the financing activities. hence, the bank is considered to have better risk management compared to a smaller bank, particularly in java island. other related financial performances, such as financing to deposit ratio and asset size of the banks, possess a pivotal role in determining the islamic bank performance, particularly in npf value (sutrisno et al., 2020; anto et al., 2022). the impact of islamic banks’ assets on banking performance is also highlighted by ibrahim and rizvi (2017), who employed cross countries analysis and the impact of financial performance on islamic bank financing for smes studied by aysan et al. (2016) in the case of turkey. most of the previous empirical studies above mentioned the measurement of the bad loan performance by the banks that were generally carried out during stable economic conditions but not in a turmoil situation. secondly, the study is expected to contribute for a new perspective in assessing the determinant of islamic banks’ npf. in terms of the previous literature that analyzed islamic banks’ bad loans amidst the covid-19 pandemic, elnahass et al. (2021) found that islamic banks suffered from the covid-19 pandemic that can be seen from lower financial performance as well as facing higher asset risk. the finding is similar to sutrisno et al. (2020), who also highlighted the negative impact of the covid-19 pandemic on islamic banks' performance in indonesia. moreover, fakhrunnas et al. (2021) and anto et al. (2022) attempted to explain the relationship between islamic banks’ non-performing financing in home financing to regional inflation before and during the covid-19 pandemic with adopting a dynamic panel data. however, the prior studies did not explain how islamic banks’ performance in the sme sector by covering before and during the outbreak as well as analyzing the regional approach in the case of indonesia. therefore, to the best of our knowledge, the study of the determinant of islamic bank’s npf remains meagre and need to be examined properly. fakhrunnas & el hasanah the determinants of islamic banks’ non-performing financing … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 223 the motivation of the study is also expected to provide empirical information for islamic banks’ stakeholders on how islamic banks reacted before and during the covid-19 period. therefore, the stakeholders, especially the financial authority, is able to issue appropriate policy to respond to the current situation. in terms of the sequence of the study, the next sections discuss data and method then it is continued with the result and discussion. finally, the conclusion is the end of the section that depicts the findings of the study as well as suggests the necessary financial policy for the betterment of the islamic finance industry. research method in order to examine the determinant of indonesian islamic banks’ non-performing financing in the sme sector, the study utilizes panel data retrieved from indonesian financial service authority and indonesian statistics. the data is taken on monthly bases from january 2016 to july 2021 at the province level. with a total number of 33 provinces, the study consists of a 2211-observation period. moreover, to examine the impact of the covid-19 pandemic, then the data is separated into two periods which are october 2018february 2020 (before the covid-19 pandemic) and march 2020-july 2021(during the covid-19 pandemic). the model of the study is adapted from kiyotaki and moore (1997) and boyd and runkle (1993), who stressed the theory of business cycle and internal financial performance, which affect the bank’s risk management. in addition, the estimation of the model is explained as follows; 𝑁𝑃𝐹𝑖𝑡 = 𝛽0 + 𝛽1𝐼𝑁𝐹𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽2𝐹𝐷𝑅𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽3𝐴𝑆𝑆𝑇𝑖𝑡 + 𝜀𝑖𝑡 where, 𝑁𝑃𝐹𝑖𝑡 : the percentage of non-performing financing compared to total financing in islamic banks in the time t and province i 𝐼𝑁𝐹𝑖𝑡 : the percentage of regional inflation rate at the province level in the time t and province i 𝐹𝐷𝑅𝑖𝑡 : the percentage of total financing to the total deposit of islamic banks in the time t and province i 𝐴𝑆𝑆𝑇𝑖𝑡 : the total asset of islamic banks in the time t and province i 𝜀𝑖𝑡 : error term in detail, the variable of npf is then separated into two, which are islamic bank’s npf in equity financing (npfe) and in investment financing (npfi) for smes. in the analysis, both npfe and npfi are grouped as model 1 and model 2, respectively. in addition, panel data analysis using fixed effect model (fem) is adopted in this study to assess the determinant of islamic banks’ npf in the sme sector concerning the outbreak and regional approach. then, following ibrahim and rizvi (2017) and elnahass et al (2021), fakhrunnas & el hasanah the determinants of islamic banks’ non-performing financing … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 224 the study utilizes the robustness check that is applied to check the consistency of the result using the generalized method of moment (gmm) as suggested by holtz-eakin et al., (1988) and arellano and bond (1991). result and discussion table 1 explains the description of all-period data before and during the covid-19 pandemic. according to the table, it can be seen that both npf in equity and investing have a higher percentage during the covid-19 pandemic compared to all periods and before the outbreak. it reflects that during the pandemic, the bank is facing higher risk exposure which results in a higher percentage of npf. moreover, the percentage of inflation during the covid-19 pandemic is considered to be low, at 0.26%, averagely, which possibly reflects a decrease in purchasing power by society during the outbreak. in contrast, the financing activities compared to the deposit ratio remains stable in all periods with an average of 108%-109%, and the size of islamic banks has been growing time by time, including during the covid-19 pandemic period. table 1 the result of data description variable all period before outbreak during outbreak mean max min std. dev. mean max min std. dev. mean max min std. dev. npfe 7.3% 100% 0% 6.6% 6.8% 420% 0% 5.8% 0.075 420% 0% 6% npfi 6.2% 100% 0% 5.2% 6.1% 260% 0% 4.6% 0.067 280% 0% 5.5% inf 0.29% 4.2% -3.03% 0.66% 0.31% 3.22% -2.74% 0.66% 0.26% 3.6% -1.88% 0.62% fdr 108% 277% 25% 44.7% 108% 238% 29% 44.6% 109% 241% 26% 45.6% asset idr 7.9 idr 13.0 idr 5.1 idr 1.6 idr 7.9 idr 13.0 idr 5.1 idr 1.5 idr 14,220.4 idr 434,579.6 idr 175.3 idr 43,732.8 note: the amount of the asset is in idr billion fakhrunnas & el hasanah the determinants of islamic banks’ non-performing financing … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 225 table 2 the result of correlation test variable npfe npfi inf fdr asst npfe 1.000 0.276 0.035 -0.004 -0.176 npfi 0.276 1.000 0.051 0.039 -0.154 inf 0.035 0.051 1.000 -0.061 0.094 fdr -0.004 0.039 -0.061 1.000 -0.200 asst -0.176 -0.154 0.094 -0.200 1.000 in terms of correlation analysis, table 2 exhibits that the highest correlation value is 0.2 between fdr and asset, it means both variables have the strongest relationship compared to others. moreover, there is no correlation value between the two variables, which has the same or more than 0.8. from the result, it can be interpreted that there is no correlation issue among the observed variables. table 3 the result of fixed effect regression variable all period before outbreak during outbreak model 1 model 2 model 1 model 2 model 1 model 2 inf 0.001 0.002 -0.003* -0.005** 0.005 0.006 (0.595) (1.205) (-1.903) (-2.137) (0.912) (1.594) fdr 0.001 0.004** -0.009* 0.000 -0.005 0.002 (0.184) (2.241) (-1.751) (0.156) (-1.203) (0.591) asset 0.000*** 0.000*** 0.000*** 0.000*** 0.000*** 0.000*** (-7.411) (-9.700) (-3.128) (0.000) (-5.225) (-6.640) c 0.075*** 0.059*** 0.082*** 0.063*** 0.083*** 0.066*** (15.054) (29.300) (13.960) (0.003) (16.711) (21.229) r-squared 0.061 0.063 0.146 0.153 0.043 0.038 f-statistic 1.353** 1.387*** 1.057 0.236 2.222** 1.963** note: the symbols of ***, ** and * reflect the significance level at 1%, 5% and 10% for each. the number in the bracket expresses the t-statistic value. furthermore, the result of fem is explained in table 3. according to the finding, during all periods, inflation does not have a significant influence on npf in all models. the finding is different from fakhrunnas et al. (2021), and anto et al. (2022) stated that inflation is the determinant of npf’s value in the indonesian islamic bank. moreover, fdr has a positive and significant impact on npf in investment financing. it reflects that a higher percentage of npf in investment financing tends to increase npf. in line with sutrisno et al. (2020), with a lack of risk management in performing financing activities, the risk of financing tends to be higher, and it directly impacts banking performance. in addition, the size of islamic banks has a positive and significant relationship to npf in all models of sme financing. a positive relationship indicates that when the bank’s asset size increases, the value of npf in equity and investment financing for sme sectors increase as well. the finding is in contrast to ibrahim and rizvi (2017), who stated that islamic banks tend to have a better performance if the bank has a higher size. similar to boyd and runkle (1993) argument, by possessing a higher size, the bank possibly tends to be a risk taker, and only the bank has a lack of risk management potentially fakhrunnas & el hasanah the determinants of islamic banks’ non-performing financing … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 226 underperformed. it means in all periods, an islamic bank is possibly not prudent when giving equity and investment financing to smes. before and during the outbreak, the asset of islamic banks has the same influence as it occurs in all periods, either in model 1 or model 2, in which a higher size of islamic bank tends to have a higher npf in the sme sector. once no other variable has a significant relationship in both models during the outbreak except the asset of the islamic bank, inflation has a negative and significant relationship to npf in all models. it indicates that lower inflation is possibly due to less purchasing power possessed by society to buy products and services provided by smes. as a result, such condition creates a higher possibility for smes to return the financing amount to the islamic bank (fakhrunnas et al., 2021). the finding is also in line with what was found by aviliani et al. (2015), nursechafia and abduh (2014), erdinç and gurov (2016), and firmansyah and gunardi (2018), who concluded that inflation has a negative and significant effect stated that inflation has a negative relationship to islamic banks’ npf. regarding the negative impact of fdr on npf in equity financing before the pandemic occurs, an increase of 1% fdr will decrease 0.009% of npf in equity financing for smes. it indicates that a higher percentage of fdr lessens the non-performing financing in the sme sector. the finding is also the same as sutrisno et al. (2020), who found fdr is the determinant of islamic banking performance. moreover, that negative relationship also portrays the condition before the outbreak in which islamic bank performed better risk management in channeling the funds through smes equity financing compared to other periods. considering the regional performance of islamic banks’ financing for smes, the study divides the analysis into two separate samples; (1) islamic banks located in java island that consist of six provinces and (2) islamic banks located outside java island that consist of twenty-seven provinces. in general, islamic bank size has a positive and significant relationship in java island. it confirms that size becomes the determinant of npf in smes. however, islamic banks consider its positive effect because a higher asset size of an islamic bank tends to worsen the performance of npf. the condition is possibly due to imprudent financing activities of islamic banks, and as mentioned by boyd and runkle (1993), the excessive financing might be the reason why the bank possessing a higher asset size has excessive risk exposure. in contrast, islamic banks’ npf outside java island has no significant relationship to npf. as mentioned by widarjono et al. (2020), this circumstance is possibly caused by the small amount of asset size of islamic banks outside java island, which only contribute roughly 40% of economic activities to the indonesian economy. moreover, fdr becomes the determinant of the islamic bank’s npf in java island as it is outside java island in model 2 during the observation of all periods. the finding is supported by sutrisno et al. (2020), who found the same result. however, the influence of fdr on java island negatively affects npf, while outside java island has the opposite influence. it portrays that in terms of total financing to deposit ratio, the islamic bank in java island performs better in tackling imprudent issues compared to all provinces fakhrunnas & el hasanah the determinants of islamic banks’ non-performing financing … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 227 table 4 the result of fixed effect regression (regional approach) variable java outside java all period before oubreak during outbreak all period before oubreak during outbreak model 1 model 2 model 1 model 2 model 1 model 2 model 1 model 2 model 1 model 2 model 1 model 2 inf 0.000 0.007 -0.001 0.000 0.016 -0.001 0.002 0.002 -0.001 -0.002 0.005 0.008** (-0.031) (1.340) (-0.200) (-0.004) (0.705) (-0.047) (1.034) (1.134) (-0.265) (-0.590) (1.048) (2.028) fdr -0.024* 0.013 -0.032** -0.019 -0.053** 0.070** 0.000 0.005* -0.008 0.004 -0.003 0.001 (-1.689) (0.867) (-2.094) (-1.522) (-2.293) (2.355) (-0.040) (1.897) (-1.289) (0.783) (-0.580) (0.096) asset 0.000*** 0.000*** 0.000*** 0.000*** 0.000*** 0.000** 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 (-6.200) (-5.696) (-5.069) (-4.884) (-2.739) (-2.613) (-0.463) (-0.701) (-0.314) (-0.247) (0.382) (-0.455) c 0.091*** 0.054*** 0.096*** 0.077*** 0.112*** 0.016 0.077 0.058*** 0.081*** 0.059*** 0.082** 0.065*** (6.530) (3.895) (6.077) (5.870) (6.160) (0.552) (18.484) (18.701) (10.413) (9.727) (10.719) (9.756) r-squared 0.165 0.152 0.290 0.253 0.227 0.199 0.021 0.023 0.035 0.024 0.017 0.023 f-statistic 2.044*** 1.854*** 3.609*** 2.994*** 2.468*** 2.089** 1.066 1.158 1.433 0.978 0.697 0.959 note: the symbols of ***, ** and * reflect the significance level at 1%, 5% and 10% for each. the number in the bracket express t-statistic value. table 5 the result of gmm test variable model 1 model 2 npf(-1) 0.038 0.046 (1.322) (0.950) inf 0.001 0.002 (0.224) (0.622) fdr -0.008 -0.001 (-1.814) (-0.211) asset 0.000*** 0.000*** (-3.139) (-3.626) j-statistic 30.071 28.015 ar (2) 1.122 1.183 note: the symbols of ***, ** and * reflect the significance level at 1%, 5% and 10% for each. the number in the bracket express t-statistic value. fakhrunnas & el hasanah the determinants of islamic banks’ non-performing financing … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 228 outside java island. it may occur because financing activities on java island have more diversification in terms of the use of the contract compared to those outside java island (widarjonoet al., 2020). outside java island, the islamic bank’s npf for investment financing in the smes sector also still has exposure to inflation risk. nevertheless, it does not occur on java island. finally, a robustness check is conducted to examine whether the same result is present when the different analytical tools are implemented. by adopting the gmm approach, as proposed by hotz-eiken, newey, and rosen (1998) and arellano and bond (1991). according to the gmm result, the size of the islamic bank has a positive and significant influence on the islamic bank’s npf in both models. generally, the result emphasizes the fem’s finding, which stated that the size of islamic banks becomes the determinant of islamic banks’ npf in the sme sector. conclusion the paper aims to investigate the determinant of the islamic bank’s non-performing financing in sme sectors, particularly in equity and investment financing. the finding of the study reveals that the size of islamic banks’ assets consistently influence npf in sme sector in all periods, before and during the pandemic. moreover, inflation negatively influences npf in all models before the pandemic only, and it is the same for the financingto-deposit ratio. from the regional viewpoint, islamic banks’ size has a positive and significant relationship to npf in java island during all periods, before and during the pandemic, while the financing-to-deposit ratio also impacts npf even though it has a diverse direction in a certain period. only inflation affects the islamic banks’ npf in the sme sector for investment financing during the covid-19 pandemic outside java island, while other variables have no significant effect. the robustness check through the gmm approach generally explains that the size of an islamic bank’s asset has a positive relationship with non-performing financing value in the sme sector. according to the findings, the study contributes to the development of islamic banking and finance studies in two ways; (1) comprehend the previous literature regarding how the performance of non-performing financing in islamic banks and (2) provide a new insight to highlight the determinants of npf in smes sector with comparing before and during the covid-19 outbreak. as an implication of the results, a higher size of islamic bank has a higher rate of npf in the sme sector. the findings indicate that an islamic bank possessing a bigger asset tends to be a risk taker compared to a smaller islamic bank. moreover, a bigger size of islamic bank may not have proper risk management, which lets the bank for having more npf value. according to the findings, islamic bank needs to have a robust risk management system in financing sme sectors. since sme financing is riskier, financing criteria need to be tightened to ensure that smes can return the financing funds as well as share the profit. for the policy maker, the financial authority needs to supervise fakhrunnas & el hasanah the determinants of islamic banks’ non-performing financing … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 229 the islamic banking performance, particularly in sme financing. some regulations are required to strengthen the risk management process of islamic banks. lastly, the paper still has limitations, particularly in the use of limited variables. therefore, the future study needs to increase the number of observed variables and build more robust empirical research model to examine the determinant of islamic banks’ npf in the sme sector. these improvements are believed to be needed to bring the study to the next level. references abid, l., ouertani, m. n., & zouari-ghorbel, s. 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(142).jpg image (143).jpg image (144).jpg image (145).jpg image (146).jpg image (147).jpg image (149).jpg image (148).jpg image (150).jpg microsoft word 05-sri yani jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015, hlm.53-62   determinan likuiditas pada bank umum swasta nasional non devisa di indonesia tahun 2003-2012 anna cahya mustika1, sri yani kusumastuti2 1 diploma iv keuangan, universitas trisakti, jakarta 2 fakultas ekonomi, universitas trisakti, jakarta jalan kyai tapa no.1, jakarta barat 11440, indonesia. phone: +62 21 5663232 e-mail korespondensi: sriyanik@gmail.com naskah diterima: agustus 2014; disetujui: februari 2015 abstract: this research aims to analyze the influence of return on asset (roa), net interest margin (nim), capital adequacy ratio (car), size (size), market concentration (cr4) on liquidity. the data used were obtained from the annual publication of the financial statements of each non-foreign exchange busn bank in indonesia in 2003-2012. the sampling method was purposive sampling to 18 non-foreign exchange busn bank in 2003-2012. the technique used is regression analysis of panel data. the result shows that roa have significantly negative effect on liquidity, and car has significantly positive effect on liquidity. keywords: return on asset; net interest margin; market concentration; liquidity jel classification: g21, g28, e44 abstrak: penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh return on asset (roa), net interest margin (nim), capital adequacy ratio (car), ukuran (size), konsentrasi pasar (cr4) terhadap likuiditas. data yang digunakan diperoleh dari laporan keuangan publikasi tahunan masing-masing bank busn non devisa di indonesia pada tahun 2003-2012. pengambilan sampel dengan teknik purposive sampling yaitu 18 bank busn non devisa periode 2003-2012. teknik analisis yang digunakan adalah regresi data panel. roa berpengaruh signifikan negatif terhadap likuiditas dan car berpengaruh signifikan positif terhadap likuiditas. kata kunci: return on asset; net interest margin; konsentrasi pasar; likuiditas klasifikasi jel: g21, g28, e44 doi: 10.18196/jesp.2015.0041.53-62 pendahuluan dalam era globalisasi sekarang ini peranan bank sangat penting bagi masyarakat indonesia, karena pada dasarnya perbankan bertujuan untuk mewujudkan pembangunan nasional dalam rangka meningkatkan kesejahteraan rakyat. dengan kondisi perekonomian indonesia pada tahun 2013 yang sedang krisis sebagai akibat dari mulai naiknya tingkat inflasi, tingkat penyaluran kredit yang tinggi selama beberapa tahun terakhir hingga diikuti dengan kenaikan tingkat suku bunga perbankan, yang dapat berdampak terhadap laporan keuangan, maka setiap bank diharapkan dapat menjaga likuiditas bank. kenaikan suku bunga tidak bisa dihindari sebagai akibat dari meningkatnya inflasi. inflasi sampai dengan akhir tahun diperkirakan mendekati 7 persen, nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar as ada pada kisaran rp10.000 per us$1, ekspor akan cenderung menurun, dan bahkan impor bahan baku justru cenderung meningkat. dengan memperhatikan kondisi tersebut, pada umumnya semua pelaku bisnis sudah melakukan berbagai langkah-langkah strategis agar dampaknya tidak terlalu buruk, utamanya kalangan perbankan. kalangan perbankan harus jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015: 53-62 54 lebih jeli dan kritis menyikapinya, karena perbankan tidak lain merupakan lembaga kepercayaan. kepercayaan terhadap bank yang ditandai dengan kondisi permodalannya merupakan suatu hal yang sangat penting untuk diperhatikan tidak hanya bagi bank untuk menjalankan usahanya melainkan untuk masyarakat sebagai nasabah, otoritas jasa keuangan (ojk), dan bank indonesia. hal ini dilakukan untuk memastikan kontinuitas dan kelangsungan usaha perbankan serta bila sewaktu-waktu mengalami kesulitan baik karena kesalahan pihak manajemen dalam mengelola likuiditas atau karena kondisi eksternal seperti keadaan ekonomi dan moneter. persoalan likuiditas tampaknya akan menjadi segala-galanya bagi bank dalam menghadapi situasi dan kondisi perekonomian yang cenderung memburuk atau banyak ketidakpastian. manajemen bank beserta seluruh jajarannya harus menjaga kondisi likuiditas agar kepercayaan masyarakat tidak hilang dan dapat menjalankan kegiatannya sesuai dengan definisi pasal 1 uu no. 10 tahun 1998 diketahui bahwa kegiatan utama bank adalah menghimpun dana dan menyalurkan dana kepada masyarakat. jika ditinjau dari reserves requirement atau giro wajib minimum (gwm), perbankan di indonesia terindikasi mengalami masalah likuiditas pada tahun 2010 hingga tahun 2013. reserves requirement atau giro wajib minimum (gwm) adalah jumlah dana minimum yang wajib dipelihara oleh bank yang besarnya ditetapkan oleh bank indonesia sebesar persentase tertentu dari dpk (pbi no. 15/7/pbi/2013). gwm primer menjadi sangat penting mengingat bila hal tersebut tidak dapat dipenuhi oleh suatu bank, maka bank tersebut dapat mengalami kesulitan untuk menjalankan kegiatannya, seperti kliring, sebagai alat mengontrol inflasi dan sebagai cadangan dana bagi bank karena gwm primer yang paling likuid setelah kas. adanya masalah likuiditas yang diproksi dengan reserves requirement atau giro wajib minimum (gwm) tercermin dari peraturan yang dikeluarkan oleh bank indonesia antara lain yaitu pbi no. 13/10/pbi/2011 dan pbi no.15/7/pbi/2013. peraturan-peraturan ini menjadi cerminan bahwa bank indonesia sedang berusaha menjaga likuiditas bank-bank agar dapat terjaga ditengah krisis ekonomi yang terjadi. guna mencapai kecukupan likuiditas yang memadai dan menjalankan fungsi intermediasi secara optimal perlu dilakukan pengaturan likuiditas bank melalui kebijakan gwm yang diatur dalam pbi 15/7/pbi/2013, yaitu 8 persen dari dpk (dana pihak ketiga). tabel 1 memperlihatkan bank umum, bank persero, dan bank busn devisa mempunyai tingkat kepemilikan gwm dari tahun ke tahun berfluktuatif, dan cenderung naik dari tahun ke tahun sehingga selalu dalam mencukupi ketentuan gwm yang ada yaitu menurut pbi 15/7/pbi/2013 sebesar 8 persen. bank umum swasta nasional (busn) non devisa mengalami penurunan yang signifikan pada tahun pada tahun 2008 yaitu sebesar 2,65 persen dan penurunan lagi pada tahun 2009, namun terjadi kenaikan pada tahun 2010 tetapi mengalami penurunan dari tahun 2011 hingga september 2013 yang mencapai nilai 7,92 persen. artinya gwm primer bank busn non devisa berada di bawah ketentuan yang diatur dalam pbi 15/7/pbi/2013 yaitu sebesar 8 persen. bank bpd cenderung berfluktuatif dan mengalami penurunan yang cukup drastis pada tahun 2008 sebesar 10,78 dan terus mengalami penurunan pada tahun 2009, tetapi seiring tabel 1. daftar ratio gwm berdasarkan jenis bank (%) jenis bank 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (september) bank persero 14,30 6,90 9,62 9,38 10,01 10,90 11,77 busn devisa 9,58 7,72 8,46 8,32 9,81 9,97 10,29 busn non devisa 8,07 5,41 5,20 8,56 8,04 8,02 7,92 bpd 17,35 6,57 6,41 9,57 10,33 10,57 8,59 bank campuran 8,17 8,39 9,38 8,75 16,90 16,62 14,73 bank asing 8,03 4,83 6,02 7,91 14,22 14,02 13,85 sumber: statistik perbankan indonesia tahun 2013 (yang diolah) determinan likuiditas pada bank umum ... (anna cahya mustika, sri yani kusumastuti) 55 jalannya waktu rasio gwm primer bank bpd naik, walaupun mengalami penurunan lagi pada tahun 2013 tetapi masih di atas 8 persen. gwm bank campuran cenderung stabil dan selalu di atas 8 persen sehingga dapat dikatakan aman. sedangkan gwm bank asing mengalami naik turun tetapi cenderung aman karena berada di atas 8 persen. sesuai dengan peratuan bank indonesia nomor 13/1/pbi/2011 tentang penilaian tingkat kesehatan bank umum, bank wajib melakukan penilaian tingkat kesehatan bank dengan penilai profil risiko (risk profile), good corporate governance, rentabilitas (earnings) dan permodalan (capital). bila likuiditas dilihat dari sisi rentabilitasnya dapat dilihat dari roa dan nim. roa digunakan untuk mengukur efektivitas perusahaan dalam menghasilkan keuntungan dengan memanfaatkan aktiva yang dimilikinya, dimana semakin besar roa menunjukkan kinerja keuangan yang semakin baik, karena tingkat kembalinya akan semakin besar (husnan, 1998). bila dilihat dari permodalannya, likuiditas dapat dilihat dari car (capital adequacy ratio) yang menunjukkan kemampuan bank dalam menyediakan dana untuk keperluan pengembangan usaha dan menampung resiko kerugian dana yang diakibatkan oleh kegiatan operasi bank (ali, 2004: 266). semakin tinggi car maka semakin besar pula sumber daya finansial yang dapat digunakan untuk keperluan pengembangan usaha dan mengantisipasi potensi kerugian yang diakibatkan oleh penyaluran kredit. berdasarkan penelitian yang dilakukan akhtar dkk (2011) dalam penelitiannya mengenai pentingnya ukuran perusahaan, networking modal, return on equity, kecukupan modal dan return on asset (roa), dengan manajemen risiko likuiditas di bank konvensional dan islam pakistan, ditemukan bahwa car dan roa positif secara signifikan mempengaruhi likuiditas bank. penelitian syahrir (2012) tentang resiko likuiditas bank pembangunan daerah (bpd) seindonesia tahun 2007-2011 disimpulkan bahwa car berpengaruh positif terhadap likuiditas. penelitian yang dilakukan bonner dkk (2013) dalam penelitiannya mengenai penyangga likuiditas bank dan peran peraturan likuiditas, faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi likuiditas adalah size (ukuran), profit, dan konsentrasi sektor perbankan mempengaruhi likuiditas perbankan. penelitian yang dilakukan bonner dkk (2013) tentang penyangga likuiditas bank dan peran peraturan likuiditas, faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi likuiditas adalah size (ukuran), profit, dan konsentrasi sektor perbankan mempengaruhi likuiditas perbankan. berdasar tulisan bonner dkk (2013) dan latar belakang di atas, maka tujuan penulisan ini adalah mengestimasi pengaruh faktor-faktor penentu likuiditas pada bank-bank umum swasta nasional (busn) non devisa di indonesia. menurut sutrisno (2009), likuiditas adalah kemampuan perusahaan untuk memenuhi kewajiban yang harus segara dipenuhi. menurut sawir (2005: 8), likuiditas adalah kemampuan perusahaan untuk memenuhi kewajiban yang akan jatuh tempo, sehingga likuiditas merupakan kemampuan bank untuk menyediakan saldo kas dan saldo harta likuid yang lain untuk memenuhi kewajiban-kewajibannya, khususnya untuk menutup jumlah reservesrequirement (gwm), membayar cek, giro berbunga, tabungan, dan deposito berjangka milik nasabah yang diuangkan kembali, menyediakan dana kredit yang diminta calon debitur sehat (sebagai bukti bahwa mereka tidak menyimpang dari kegiatan utama bank yaitu pemberian kredit), menutup berbagai macam kewajiban segera lainnya, dan menutup kebutuhan biaya operasional perusahaan. proksi yang digunakan berdasarkan definisi diatas adalah:     100% kas simpanan pada bi likuiditas x total dana pihak ketiga   1) return on asset (roa) adalah rasio profitabilitas yang menunjukkan perbandingan antara laba sebelum pajak dengan total asset bank (riyadi, 2006). bila laba sebelum pajak naik maka menandakan bahwa penjualan naik, sehingga kas yang dimiliki ikut naik, bila kas naik dengan asumsi bahwa dpk tidak ada perubahan maka likuiditas nilainya akan besar. namun, bila laba sebelum pajak naik maka menandakan bahwa penjualan naik, sehingga kas yang dimiliki ikut naik, bila kas naik jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015: 53-62 56 dengan asumsi bahwa dpk mengalami kenaikan yang jumlahnya bertambah secara cepat pertumbuhannya, sehingga dpk mempunyai nilai yang lebih besar daripada kas dan simpanan pada bi maka nilai likuiditas akan turun. jadi, roa dapat mempengaruhi likuiditas secara positif atau negatif. penelitian akhtar dkk (2011), bonner (2013), vodová (2014) menyatakan bahwa roa berpengaruh positif terhadap likuiditas perbankan. h1: return on asset (roa) pengaruh terhadap likuiditas pada bank busn non devisa tahun 2003-2012. net interest margin (nim) adalah merupakan perbandingan antara persentase hasil bunga terhadap total asset atau terhadap total earning assets (riyadi, 2006: 21). bila pendapatan bunga naik berarti pendapatan bagi bank naik, sehingga kas yang dimiliki bank bertambah dengan asumsi bahwa dpk mempunyai nilai tetap atau tidak bertambah sehingga likuiditas akan naik. namun, bila pendapatan bunga bersih naik maka menandakan bahwa penjualan naik, sehingga kas yang dimiliki ikut naik, bila kas naik dengan asumsi bahwa dpk mengalami kenaikan yang jumlahnya bertambah secara cepat pertumbuhannya, sehingga dpk mempunyai nilai yang lebih besar daripada kas dan simpanan pada bi maka nilai likuiditas akan turun. jadi, nim dapat mempengaruhi likuiditas secara positif atau negatif. penelitian vodová (2014) menunjukkan bahwa nim berpengaruh negatif terhadap likuiditas. h2: net interest margin (nim) berpengaruh terhadap likuiditas pada bank busn non devisa tahun 2003-2012. capital adequacy ratio (car) merupakan salah satu indikator penilaian kesehatan perbankan dalam aspek capital. modal merupakan salah satu faktor yang penting bagi bank dalam mengembangkan usahanya dan menampung risiko kerugian (taswan, 2006). dengan asumsi bahwa modal tetap, atmr naik, car turun, likuiditas turun yang diakibatkan oleh naiknya atmr (80 persen dari atmr adalah kredit), maka dana yang tersedia harus naik untuk meng-cover atmr (kredit beresiko) tersebut sehingga likuiditas turun. namun, bila modal naik, atmr tetap, sehingga kas yang dimiliki ikut naik, sehingga likuiditas akan naik. jadi, car dapat mempengaruhi likuiditas secara positif atau negatif. penelitian akhtar dkk (2011), syahrir (2012), vodová (2014) menunjukkan bahwa car berpengaruh positif terhadap likuiditas. h3: capital adequacy ratio (car) berpengaruh terhadap likuiditas pada bank busn non devisa tahun 2003-2012. ukuran perusahaan merupakan ukuran atau besarnya aset yang dimiliki perusahaan. ukuran perusahaan dilihat dari total aktiva yang dimiliki suatu bank. semakin besar ukuran perusahaan tersebut maka semakin besar dana likuid yang harus dimiliki oleh suatu perusahaan tersebut. jika ukuran perusahaan naik, likuiditas juga ikut naik, karena semakin besar dana likuid yang dimiliki dalam aktiva nya. penelitian bonner (2013), vodová (2014) menunjukkan bahwa ukuran bank berpengaruh positif terhadap likuiditas. h4: ukuran (size) berpengaruh terhadap likuiditas pada bank busn non devisa tahun 2003-2012. untuk melihat struktur pasar industri maka dapat diketahui dengan cara mengukur tingkat konsentrasi dari industri tersebut. dalam penelitian ini akan digunakan variabel cr4 yaitu rasio konsentrasi 4 bank terbesar untuk mengukur tingkat konsentrasi pada industri perbankan ini. variabel yang akan dijadikan ukuran konsentrasi adalah variabel aset. jika tingkat konsentrasi pada industri perbankan ini terfokus hanya pada 4 bank besar dan tidak termasuk salah satu di antaranya bank busn non devisa maka semakin kecil kesempatan bagi bank busn non devisa untuk bersaing dalam mencari keuntungan. bila keuntungan yang diperoleh sedikit maka dana untuk memenuhi likuiditasnya pun menjadi sedikit. sehingga dapat disimpulkan bahwa konsentrasi pasar berpengaruh negatif terhadap likuiditas. tetapi bonner (2013) menunjukkan bahwa konsentrasi pasar bisa berdampak positif terhadap likuiditas jika bank tersebut adalah bank besar yang menguasai pasar. h5: konsentrasi pasar mempengaruhi likuiditas pada bank busn non devisa tahun 2003-2012. determinan likuiditas pada bank umum ... (anna cahya mustika, sri yani kusumastuti) 57 metode penelitian penelitian ini menggunakan data panel atau pooling data yaitu data panel merupakan gabungan dari data cross-section dan data timeseries. jenis data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data sekunder. data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini bersumber pada laporan keuangan publikasi yang diterbitkan oleh bank indonesia dalam direktori perbankan indonesia tahun 2003-2012. populasi dalam penelitian ini yaitu seluruh jenis bank yang ada di indonesia. pengambilan sampel dalam penelitian ini dilakukan menggunakan teknik purposive sampling. pengambilan sampel dengan teknik purposive sampling. kriteria pengambilan sampel dalam penelitian ini adalah tidak melakukan merger atau akuisisi pada tahun 2003-2012, bank merupakan bank konvensional bukan bank syariah, bank melakukan publikasi laporan keuangan secara konsisten dari tahun 2003-2012, bank memiliki data yang dibutuhkan dan rasio-rasio yang dibutuhkan dalam waktu sepuluh tahun (2003-2012). berdasarkan kriteria sampel bank busn non devisa, maka bank yang terpilih sebagai sampel dalam penelitian ini terdiri dari 18 bank yaitu bank anglomas, bank kesejahteraan ekonomi, bank artos, bank mayora, bank centratama national, bank fama international, bank sinar harapan bali, bank harda international, bank multiarta sentosa, bank bisnis international, bank jasa jakarta, bank yudha bakti, bank mitraniaga, bank royal indonesia, bank ina perdana, bank prima master, bank tabungan pensiun nasional, dan bank victoria international. variabel yang digunakan meliputi variabel likuiditas, roa, nim, car, ukuran perusahaan, dan konsentrasi pasar. likuiditas adalah kemampuan suatu bank atau suatu perusahaan untuk memenuhi kewajiban-kewajiban jangka pendeknya. proksi yang dipakai untuk menghitung likuiditas adalah:   x 100% kas simpanan pada bi likuiditas total dana pihak ketiga 2) return on asset (roa) adalah rasio profitabilitas yang menunjukan perbandingan antara laba sebelum pajak dengan total asset bank (slamet riyadi, 2006). rasio ini menunjukkan tingkat efisiensi pengelolaan aset yang dilakukan oleh bank yang bersangkutan. rumus roa: laba sebelum pajak roa = x 100% total asset (rata-rata) 3) net interest margin (nim) adalah merupakan perbandingan antara persentase hasil bunga terhadap total asset atau terhadap total earning assets. rumus perhitungan nim menurut surat edaran bank indonesia no. 6/23/ dpnp tanggal 31 mei 2004:   pendapatan bunga bersih nim 100% aktiva produktif 4) car adalah rasio yang memperlihatkan seberapa besar jumlah seluruh aktiva bank yang mengandung resiko (kredit, penyertaan, surat berharga, tagihan pada bank lain) ikut dibiayai dari modal sendiri di samping memperoleh dana-dana dari sumber-sumber diluar bank (pbi, 2008). berdasarkan surat edaran bank indonesia nomor 3/30/dpnp tanggal 14 desember 2001, rumus car:   modal car= ×100% aktiva tertimbang menurut resiko 5) ukuran perusahaan merupakan ukuran atau besarnya asset yang dimiliki perusahaan. ukuran perusahaan (size) dalam penelitian ini dilihat dari besarnya total assets yang dimiliki perusahaan. variabel ukuran perusahaan dapat dinyatakan dengan rumus:  ukuran perusahaan size =total aktiva 6) untuk melihat struktur pasar industri maka dapat diketahui dengan cara mengukur tingkat konsentrasi dari industri tersebut. dalam penelitian ini akan digunakan variabel cr4 yaitu rasio konsentrasi 4 bank terbesar untuk mengukur tingkat konsentrasi pada industri perbankan ini. variabel yang akan dijadikan jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015: 53-62 58 ukuran konsentrasi adalah variabel aset. secara matematis dirumuskan sebagai berikut: aset 4 bank cr4= ×100% aset seluruh bank umum σ σ 7) metode analisis yang digunakan untuk melihat pengaruh return on asset (roa), net interest margin (nim), capital adequacy ratio (car), ukuran (size), konsentrasi pasar mempengaruhi likuiditas adalah regresi panel data. terdapat tiga pendekatan yang biasa digunakan untuk mengestimasi parameter model dengan data panel, yaitu: ordinary least square (common effect) (pls = pooling least square), model efek tetap (fixed effect), dan model efek random (random effect). hasil dan pembahasan hasil estimasi pada tabel 2 memperlihatkan bahwa metode estimasi yang terpilih adalah fixed effect (0,0090 < 0,05). setelah terpilih metode fixed effect, kemudian akan dilanjutkan dengan melakukan regresi random effect. hasil estimasi tersebut juga menunjukkan bahwa metode yang terpilih adalah random effect (1,0000 > 0,05). pengaruh roa terhadap likuiditas pada model random effect diperoleh nilai koefsien sebesar -2,435022 dengan signifikasi 0,0030 artinya signifikasi roa < 0,05 maka dapat mempunyai efek negatif dan signifikan terhadap likuiditas. hal ini sesuai dengan teori pada kajian literatur, yang mengindikasikan bahwa perubahan yang terjadi pada roa akan berpengaruh efek negatif dan signifikan terhadap likuiditas. penelitian tersebut mendukung hasil penelitian dari islam, dkk (2007) dengan hasil roa signifikan terhadap likuiditas. namun, penelitian tersebut tidak sesuai dengan 2 penelitian terdahulu yaitu penelitian dari akhtar dkk (2011) dengan hasil penelitian roa berpengaruh positif (+) terhadap likuiditas bank dan penelitian dari islam, dkk (2007) dengan hasil roa berpengaruh positif (+) terhadap likuiditas. perbedaan ini dapat terjadi karena proksi yang dipakai dalam perhitungan likuiditas berbeda. roa merupakan rasio yang menunjukkan tingkat efisiensi pengelolaan aset yang dilakukan oleh bank yang bersangkutan, karena dpk yang dimiliki mempunyai pertumbuhan yang pesat dan besar dibandingkan kas dan simpanan pada bank indonesia maka roa akan mempunyai efek negatif terhadap likuiditas. hal ini dapat dilihat pada gambar 1 rata-rata kas, simpanan pada bank indonesia, dan dpk pada bank busn non devisa menunjukkan bahwa pertumbuhan dpk pada bank busn non devisa sangat pesat yang mengakibatkan roa mempunyai efek negatif dan signifikan terhadap likuiditas. roa (return on asset) memtabel 2. hasil estimasi variabel hipotesis common effect fixed effect random effect c 22,329640 18,746850 21,706790 roa +/-2,435022 -1,527773 -2,052887* nim +/0,627770 0,953350 0,657606 car +/0,574137 0,626754 0,592659* size + 7,94e-08 1,86e-07 8,60e-08 konsentrasi pasar -0,136810 0,307377 -0,153528 r-squared 0,487260 0,582494 0,434339 adjusted r-squared 0,472526 0,523990 0,418084 f-statistic 33,070680 9,956482 26,720940 prob (f-statistic) 0,000000 0,000000 0,000000 akaike info criterion 8,211881 8,195300 durbin-watson stat 1,209647 1,453478 1,313318 uji chow 2,106589 (0,0090) fe uji hausman 0,000000 (1,0000) re sumber: hasil olah data determinan likuiditas pada bank umum ... (anna cahya mustika, sri yani kusumastuti) 59 punyai efek negatif (-) dan signifikan terhadap likuiditas bank busn non devisa di indonesia tahun 2003-2012. pengaruh nim terhadap likuiditas pada model random effect diperoleh nilai koefisien sebesar 0,657606 dengan signifikasi 0,1242 artinya signifikasi nim > 0,05 mempunyai efek positif dan tidak signifikan terhadap likuiditas. hal ini tidak sesuai dengan teori, sehingga mengindikasikan bahwa perubahan yang terjadi pada rasio net interest margin (nim) tidak akan berpengaruh signifikan terhadap likuiditas. hasil penelitian ini sesuai mendukung hasil penelitian yang dilakukan islam, dkk (2007) dengan hasil nim berpengaruh positif (+) terhadap likuiditas. meskipun hasil dari kedua penelitian mempunyai efek positif, namun dalam penelitian ini nim tidak signifikan. nim mempunyai efek positif (+) tetapi tidak signifikan terhadap likuiditas bank busn non devisa di indonesia tahun 20032012. pengaruh car terhadap likuiditas pada model random effect diperoleh nilai koefisien sebesar 0,592659 dengan signifikasi 0,0000 artinya signifikasi car < 0,05 maka dapat disimpulkan mempunyai efek positif dan signifikan terhadap likuiditas. hal ini sesuai dengan teori. penelitian tersebut sesuai dengan hasil penelitian yang dilakukan oleh 2 penelitian terdahulu yaitu akhtar dkk (2011) dengan hasil penelitian car berpengaruh positif (+) terhadap likuiditas bank dan asdini andi syahrir (2012) dengan hasil penelitian car berpengaruh positif (+) terhadap likuiditas. namun, hasil penelitian ini berbeda dengan penelitian yang dilakukan oleh islam, dkk (2007) dengan hasil car berpengaruh negatif (-) terhadap likuiditas. car mempunyai efek positif (+) dan signifikan terhadap likuiditas bank busn non devisa di indonesia tahun 2003-2012. pengaruh size terhadap likuiditas pada model random effect diperoleh nilai koefisien sebesar 8,60e-08 dengan signifikasi 0,6430 artinya signifikasi ukuran (size) > 0,05 maka dapat disimpulkan bahwa mempunyai efek positif dan tidak signifikan terhadap likuiditas. hal ini tidak sesuai dengan teori. hasil penelitian ini sesuai dengan yang dilakukan bonner, dkk (2013) dengan hasil ukuran (size) berpengaruh positif (+) terhadap likuiditas. namun, hasil penelitian ini berbeda dengan penelitian yang dilakukan oleh akhtar, dkk (2011) dengan hasil ukuran (size) berpengaruh negatif (-) terhadap likuiditas. ukuran perusahaan (size) mempunyai efek positif (+) tetapi tidak signifikan terhadap likuiditas bank busn non devisa di indonesia tahun 2003-2012. pengaruh konsentrasi pasar terhadap likuiditas pada model random effect diperoleh nilai koefisien sebesar -0,153528 dengan signifikansi 0,6177 artinya signifikasi konsentrasi pasar > 0,05 maka dapat disimpulkan mempunyai efek negatif (-) dan tidak signifikan terhadap likuiditas, hal ini sesuai dengan teori.hasil penelitian ini tidak sesuai dengan penelitian yang dilakukan oleh bonner dkk (2013) dengan hasil konsentrasi pasar (cr4) berpengaruh sumber: direktorat perbankan indonesia tahun 2003-2012 gambar 1. rata-rata kas, simpanan pada bank indonesia dan dpk pada bank busn non devisa tahun 2003-2012 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015: 53-62 60 positif (+) terhadap likuiditas. konsentrasi pasar mempunyai efek negatif (-) tetapi tidak signifikan terhadap likuiditas bank busn non devisa di indonesia tahun 2003-2012. hasil estimasi model random effect terlihat bahwa likuiditas suatu bank dapat terganggu akibat dari faktor internal maupun eksternal perbankan. bila suatu bank mempunyai likuiditas yang kecil, maka bank tersebut tidak dapat menjalankan kegiatan operasionalnya, karena tidak ada dana yang dimiliki akibatnya akan menghilangkan kepercayaan kepada masyarakat dan akibat terburuknya kolapsnya atau bangkrutnya bank tersebut, sehingga begitu pentingnya likuiditas suatu bank agar dapat menjalankan kegiatan operasionalnya. oleh karena itu, sebaiknya bank busn non devisa melakukan proses manajemen likuiditas yang terdiri dari penentuan kebijakan manajemen likuiditas, mendirikan komite kewajiban aset (alco), memiliki sistem informasi yang efektif dan pengendalian internal,dan teknik untuk mengurangi resiko likuiditas dari eksternal maupun internal bank (ismal, 2011). peran bank dalam suatu negara penting, karena perbankan mempunyai tujuan untuk memajukan pembangunan nasional dalam rangka meningkatkan kesejahteraan rakyat melalui berbagai produk dan fasilitas yang dikeluarkan bank. likuiditas akan menjadi sangat penting bagi bank terutama dalam menghadapi situasi ekonomi yang cenderung memburuk atau banyak ketidakpastian (simanjuntak, 2002: 11-25). hasil estimasi spesifik dapat dilihat bahwa variabel ukuran bank (size) yang terbesar berasal dari bank yudha bhakti meskipun nilai koefisien lebih tinggi dari bank busn non devisa lainnya tetapi pada bank yudha bhakti variabel ukuran bank (size) tidak mempengaruhi likuiditas karena jumlah probabilita yang dimiliki lebih dari 0,05. ukuran bank (size) yang terkecil yaitu yang berasal dari bank harda international namun pada bank harda international variabel ukuran bank (size) tidak mempengaruhi likuiditas karena jumlah probabilita yang dimiliki lebih dari 0,05. hasil estimasi spesifik dapat dilihat bahwa variabel car yang terbesar berasal dari bank jasa jakarta meskipun car pada bank jasa jakarta memiliki car yang terbesar namun pada bank jasa jakarta variabel car tidak mempengaruhi likuiditas karena probabilita yang dimiliki lebih dari 0,05. car yang terkecil berasal dari bank kesejahteraan ekonomi. variabel car pada bank kesejahteraan ekonomi tidak mempengaruhi likuiditas karena jumlah probabilitas yang dimiliki lebih dari 0,05. hasil estimasi spesifik dapat dilihat bahwa variabel roa yang terbesar berasal dari bank multiarta international. variabel roa pada bank multiarta international tidak mempengaruhi likuiditas karena probabilitas yang dimiliki lebih dari 0,05. roa yang terkecil berasal dari bank kesejahteraan ekonomi. variabel roa pada bank kesejahteraan ekonomi tidak mempengaruhi likuiditas karena roa yang dimiliki lebih dari 0,05. hasil estimasi spesifik dapat dilihat bahwa variabel nim yang terbesar berasal dari bank kesejahteraan ekonomi. variabel nim pada bank kesejahteraan ekonomi tidak mempengaruhi likuiditas karena probabilita yang dimilki lebih dari 0,05. variabel nim berasal dari bank jasa jakarta. variabel nim pada bank jasa jakarta tidak mempengaruhi likuiditas karena probabilita yang dimiliki lebih dari 0,05. hasil estimasi spesifik dapat dilihat bahwa variabel konsentrasi pasar yang terbesar berasal dari bank anglomas internasional. variabel konsentrasi pasar pada bank anglomas internasional tidak mempengaruhi likuiditas karena probabilitas yang dimiliki lebih dari 0,05. konsentrasi pasar yang terkecil berasal dari bank sinar harapan bali. variabel konsentrasi pasar pada bank anglomas internasional tidak mempengaruhi likuiditas karena probabilita yang dimiliki lebih dari 0,05. simpulan berdasarkan hasil analisis data dan pembahasan yang telah diuraikan, maka dapat diambil kesimpulan bahwa variabel likuiditas busn non devisa di indonesia pada tahun 2003-2012 dipengaruhi oleh roa secara negatif dan car secara positif, sedangkan nim, size, dan konsentrasi pasar tidak berpengaruh terhadap likuiditas. berdasarkan penelitian dan hasil pembahasan yang telah dilakukan, maka implikasi manajerial atau kebijakan yang perlu dilakukan determinan likuiditas pada bank umum ... (anna cahya mustika, sri yani kusumastuti) 61 adalah bank busn non devisa merupakan bank kecil yang masih bertahan ditengah persaingan industri bank yang dikuasai oleh 4 bank besar di indonesia. dalam hal ini dibutuhkan peran bank indonesia selaku bank sentral republik indonesia dalam melindungi dan mendukung industri bank-bank kecil agar dapat terus bersaing ditengah pasar yang dikuasai oleh 4 bank besar. beberapa saran yang diajukan yang berkaitan dengan hasil penelitian ini adalah: (1) bank busn non devisa hendaknya menjaga stabilitas likuiditas dan komposisi likuiditas yang mereka miliki dengan memperhatikan resiko-resiko (eksternal maupun internal) yang mungkin terjadi, yang dapat mengganggu kestabilitasan likuiditas yang bank miliki. (2) bank busn non devisa hendaknya meningkatkan jumlah pendapatan yang mereka miliki dengan cara memberikan kredit dengan bunga rendah, meningkatkan kualitas aset yang dimiliki, memanfaatkan perkembangan teknologi dengan membuka jaringan e-banking atau memberikan fasilitas yang baru yang berkaitan dengan menunjang sistem lalu lintas pembayaran. (3) meningkatkan modal yang dimiliki oleh bank busn non devisa agar dapat terus bersaing dan menjaga segala kemungkinan terburuk atas segala resiko yang ada. meningkatkan modal bank dapat dengan cara penawaran umum terbatas dengan skema hak memesan efek terlebih dahulu (rights issue), mengundang investor strategis dan mitra strategis baru, baik lokal maupun asing, melalui penawaran saham perdana kepada publik (initial public offering/ ipo), penambahan modal dari penyisihan laba, mengurangi deviden payout ratio untuk menambah modal. (4) bagi peneliti selanjutnya, disarankan untuk memperluas cakupan penelitian tentang pengaruh rasio keuangan terhadap likuiditas dengan menggunakan rasio-rasio lain selain rasio yang telah digunakan pada penelitian ini tentunya untuk tahun yang telah diteliti maupun tahun yang akan datang. daftar pustaka akhtar, muhammad farhan. (2011). liquidity risk management: a comparative study between conventional and islamic banks of pakistan. interdisciplinary journal of research in business vol. 1, issue. 1, january 2011: 35-44. ali, mashud. (2004). asset liability management: menyiasati resiko pasar dan resiko operasional. jakarta: pt. gramedia. asih, budi. (2013). pengaruh profitabilitas dan tingkat suku bunga sbi terhadap likuiditas perbankan pada bank umum yang terdaftar di bursa efek indonesia (bei) periode 20092011. fakultas ekonomi, universitas negeri padang, dipublikasikan. bank indonesia. (2011). pbi no. 13/1/pbi/2011 tentang penilaian tingkat kesehatan bank umum. bank indonesia. (2011). pbi no. 13/10/pbi/ 2011 tentang perubahan atas peraturan bank indonesia no. 12/19/pbi/2010 tentang giro wajib minimum bank umum pada bank indonesia dalam rupiah dan valuta asing. bank indonesia. (2011). pbi no. 15/7/pbi/2013 tentang perubahan kedua atas peraturan bank indonesia no. 12/19/pbi/2010 tentang giro wajib minimum pada bank indonesia dalam rupiah dan valuta asing. bonner, c., lelyveld, iman van, zymek, r. (2013). bank’s liquidity buffers and the role of liquidity regulation. dnb working paper no. 393. september 2013. islam, m. muzahidul, hasibul alam chowdhury. (2007). a comparative study liquidity management of an islamic bank and a conventional bank: the evidence from bangladesh. journal of islamic economics, banking and finance, volume-5 number-1 (pp. 89-108). riyadi, slamet. (2006). banking assets and liability management. edisi ketiga. jakarta: lembaga penerbit fakultas ekonomi universitas indonesia. sawir, agnes. (2005). analisis kinerja keuangan dan perencanaan keuangan perusahaan. cetakan kelima. jakarta: pt gramedia pustaka utama. simanjuntak, r. (2002). kebijakan pemerintah tentang blbi: masalah dan upaya penyelesaiannya. jurnal ekonomi & studi jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015: 53-62 62 pembangunan, vol 3 no.1 april 2002: 1125. surat edaran bank indonesia no. 3/30/dpnp tanggal 14 desember 2001. syahrir, asdini andi. (2012). analisis pengaruh ldr, npl, dan car terhadap resiko likuiditas pada bank pembangunan daerah (bpd) se-indonesia tahun 2007-2011. fakultas ekonomi dan bisnis universitas hasanuddin makassar, dipublikasikan. undang-undang no. 7 tahun 1992 tentang perbankan. undang-undang no. 10 tahun 1998 tentang perbankan. vodová, pavla. (2014). determinants of commercial bank liquidity in hungary. financial internet quarterly e-finance. institute of financial research. university of information technology and management, vol. 9, issue 3 (januari): 64-71. convert jpg to pdf online convert-jpg-to-pdf.net image (2).jpg image (3).jpg image (4).jpg image (5).jpg image (6).jpg image (7).jpg image (8).jpg image (9).jpg image (10).jpg image (11).jpg image (12).jpg image (13).jpg image (14).jpg image (15).jpg image (16).jpg jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 24 nomor 1, april 2023 article type: research paper the impact of logistic performance on intraasean trade vedy ardine1, mohamad dian revindo2, jahen f. rezki1*, and calista e. dewi1 abstract: asean has gone a long way in deepening its regional economic cooperation, particularly its trade liberalization. however, asean has comparatively less intraregional trade than the european union, whose economic integration model they aspire to emulate. as reducing tariffs was no longer an efficient way to increase trade, this study analyzes logistics performance as another factor that may affect trade. using the gravity model with bilateral trade data from 10 asean member states from 2007 to 2018 with gaps, the results show that the majority of improvements in logistics performance, by both the private sector and government alike, have positive and significant impacts on export value. this finding implies that the collaboration between the private sector and government agencies to improve logistics performance in each asean member state is imperative to foster asean intra-regional trade further. keywords: logistics; export value; gravity model; asean; trade jel classification: f13; f15; r41; r42 introduction growing studies have shown that open economies, measured using trade shares, are proven to grow faster than closed economies. trade promotes growth through technology transfers, scale economies, and comparative advantage (raghutla, 2020; yanikkaya, 2003). in 2001, a vast majority of countries around the world opened their economies and focused on tradecentered reforms and outward-oriented development, in which increasing export was their main strategy. as a result, those countries are proven to have a higher annual growth of per capita gdp, physical capital investment, and gdp (wacziarg & welch, 2008). in 1993, the association of southeast asian nations (asean) established asean free trade area (afta). its main goal was to foster asean intraregional trade through trade liberalization to be a competitive region facing global trade liberalization. afta successfully eliminated tariffs in its intraregional trade, an important achievement in terms of asean economic integration. however, afta has been criticized due to asean’s low intraregional trade ratio, for example, to the intra-regional trade of the european union (eu), which has been regarded as a model for economic integration (ishikawa, 2021). affiliation: 1 institute for economic and social research, faculty of economics and business, universitas indonesia (lpem-feb ui) 2 school of strategic and global studies, universitas indonesia *correspondence: jahen.fr@ui.ac.id this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v24i1.16546 citation: ardine, v., revindo, m. d., rezki, j. f., & dewi, c. e. (2023). the impact of logistic performance on intraasean trade. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 24(1), 32-53. article history received: 18 oct 2022 revised: 16 jan 2023 08 feb 2023 03 mar 2023 accepted: 09 mar 2023 https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?user=2zghfzcaaaaj&hl=en https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=jbok5vsaaaaj&hl=en https://www.lpem.org/id/ https://www.lpem.org/id/ https://www.lpem.org/id/ https://www.lpem.org/id/ https://sksg.ui.ac.id/ https://sksg.ui.ac.id/ mailto:jahen.fr@ui.ac.id http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp http://dx.doi.org/10.18196/jesp.v24i1.16546 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v24i1.16546&domain=pdf ardine, revindo, rezki, & dewi the impact of logistic performance on intra-asean trade jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 33 asean’s commitment and vision on trade should provide potential economic benefits in the future. however, asean’s intra-regional trade is relatively lower than its extraregional trade, which implies that asean member states have been trading more with non-member states. table 1 shows the share of good exports to fellow asean member states from 2012 to 2021. only lao pdr of the 10 asean members has a greater intraregional trade share than extra-regional trade share (asean, 2019; eurostats, 2021). common effective preferential tariff (cept), which supposedly increases asean intraregional trade, has been of relatively small impact (debaere & mostashari, 2010; okabe & urata, 2014). by contrast, the eu member states have a relatively larger intra-regional trade than their extra-regional trade, implying that they trade more with other eu member states than non-member states. table 1 intra-asean export of goods as % of total export in each asean member countries exporters 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 asean (aggregated) 26.0 26.5 25.6 24.3 23.8 23.8 24.2 23.3 21.4 21.6 brunei darussalam 14.7 23.2 19.8 19.5 25.7 32.1 28.2 34.3 40.2 39.6 cambodia 8.9 7.9 5.3 9.0 8.7 10.0 7.5 9.0 21.7 6.7 indonesia 22.0 22.3 22.5 22.3 23.0 23.3 23.4 24.7 22.4 20.6 lao people's democratic republic 56.6 45.0 54.1 52.9 49.6 63.7 64.1 54.9 60.8 50.8 malaysia 26.8 28.0 27.9 28.1 29.4 29.2 28.6 28.8 27.8 27.7 myanmar 36.4 49.2 41.5 37.5 30.1 28.0 25.2 23.9 25.9 30.1 philippines 18.9 15.6 14.9 14.6 14.9 15.4 16.0 15.3 16.0 16.3 singapore 32.2 32.8 31.3 29.6 29.0 29.0 29.6 28.7 25.1 26.5 thailand 24.7 26.0 26.1 25.7 25.3 25.2 27.1 25.5 24.0 24.0 viet nam 15.2 14.1 12.7 11.2 9.9 10.1 10.1 9.4 8.2 8.6 (aseanstats, 2022) there are multiple reasons why the intra-asean trade remains low. first, to a certain extent, this can be explained by the existence of other trade costs in addition to tariffs that are encountered by exporters that act as non-tariff measures (ntms), including sanitary measurement, pre-shipment inspection, and rules of origin (ing et al., 2016). those factors contributed to high trade costs, resulting in potential drawbacks to economic growth (anderson & van wincoop, 2004; cadot et al., 2017; plummer et al., 2016). second, the intra-asean trade is hindered by logistics, customs procedures, and other trade facilitation issues. okabe and urata (2014) suggest improving both trades' hard and soft infrastructure to overcome such barriers, commonly referred to as ‘trade facilitation’ (cadot et al., 2017). the gains from trade facilitation were proven to be larger than those from tariff reduction (shepherd & wilson, 2009). according to the world trade organization (wto), trade facilitation is a simplified, modernized, and harmonized process of export and import to tackle the problem of bureaucratic delays faced by exporters and importers. trade facilitation focuses on simplifying documents required for a trade, modernizing customs procedures required, ardine, revindo, rezki, & dewi the impact of logistic performance on intra-asean trade jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 34 and reducing days and costs for exporting and importing goods across borders.1 figure 1 shows the world bank’s logistics performance index (lpi), one of the trade facilitation measures for the asean member states. singapore is the leading country in asean with the best logistics performance. since lpi’s establishment in 2007, singapore has always been in the top 10 performers in the world, with an average nearly excellent score of 4. however, the rest of the asean member states barely catch up, which should raise concerns over the region’s connectivity and integration in the future. note: range “very low” (1) to “very high” (5). source: world bank. author’s compilation. 2021. figure 1 asean member states’ lpi score (2007–2018) given the background mentioned above, this study aims to investigate how logistics performance affects export value within the asean region. this study mainly refers to the works by gani (2017), martí et al., (2014), and sy et al., (2020) that used the gravity model to estimate the effect of logistics performance on trade in several countries, including several asean countries. however, the contributions of this study are twofold. first, we added the world bank’s four components of trading across borders to the world bank’s six components of lpi previously used by those three studies to measure logistics performance. beyond the asean context, to the best of our knowledge, our study is also the first to employ those extensive logistics performance measures in the gravity model. second, our study also develops the analytical framework of those three main references by separating the government and private sector’s domain and role in improving logistics performance. this study, thereby, will contribute to the literature regarding asean studies, international trade, and trade facilitation, while also shedding light on traderelated improvement areas prioritization for the private sector and government and explaining the magnitude of the impact of enhancing logistical performance. 1 https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/brief_tradefa_e.htm 1,5 2 2,5 3 3,5 4 4,5 2007 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 brunei darussalam indonesia cambodia lao pdr myanmar malaysia philippines singapore thailand vietnam ardine, revindo, rezki, & dewi the impact of logistic performance on intra-asean trade jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 35 the remainder of this article is organized as follows. the next section discusses the extant literature on the gravity model, trade costs, and logistics performance. the third section explains the research methodology, including the data and estimation strategy. the fourth section discusses the results, and the final section concludes. many studies have used gravity models to capture trade patterns and development. the gravity model was pioneered by tinbergen in 1962, followed by anderson and van wincoop (2003), who developed the estimation method for the gravity equation. the idea of the gravity model is that bilateral trade is proportional to the economic size of two countries, which gdp and the inverse of the geographical distance between them show. in its basic form, the larger the economic size of both exporter and importer countries, the more significant the impact on the increase of trade is, and vice versa. as for distance, the greater the distance between two countries, the lower their trade. the reason why asean intra-trade is lower than extra-trade can be explained by one component of the gravity model, which is their member states’ differences in economic size and income level. asean has low similarity in terms of economic sizes within member states, as it has a combination of high, upper, and lower-middle-income member states. by contrast, in the case of the eu, most of its member states are in the high-income group. the distance component of the gravity model can be widely interpreted. for example, geographical distance between two countries can take the form of either traditional or physical approaches. hence, the other proxy for distance can also refer to non-physical barriers such as differences in language, borders, or colonizers. all of the variables mentioned above are then used as control variables before adding variables of interest, to control for changes in trade due to other usual factors rather than the variable of interest (anderson & van wincoop, 2003; moïsé & le bris, 2013). therefore, distance can also refer to all factors contributing to trade costs. however, measuring real trade costs from one country to another is hard (anderson & van wincoop, 2004). khan and kalirajan (2011) help to define those costs into ‘behind the border costs’ and ‘beyond the border costs. behind-the-border costs are something that an exporting country can change, while beyond-the-border costs are something that an exporting country has no control to change. this study focuses on the former, behind-the-border barriers for the exporting side, which are cost factors that affect goods before they reach the border, including institutional inefficiency, poor informational institutions, poor infrastructure, and bureaucratic problems. these issues are considered more important than direct policy instruments such as tariffs. improving convergency among asean member states in those areas is expected to improve connectivity and shorten distance barriers. summarizing, efficient connectivity, improved logistics performance, and effective trade policy are expected to reduce fixed trade costs between two trading countries (anderson & van wincoop, 2004; khan & kalirajan, 2011; lawless, 2010; moïsé & le bris, 2013). figure 2 illustrates the channel of improvement in logistics performance based on the gravity model. the highlight of studies in logistics performance is that each country differs in terms of which component is more significantly affecting trade, but the overall ardine, revindo, rezki, & dewi the impact of logistic performance on intra-asean trade jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 36 improvement in any component should lead to an increase in export performance (felipe & kumar, 2012; portugal-perez & wilson, 2012; feenstra & ma, 2014; martí et al., 2014; halaszovich & kinra, 2020). the private sector performs most of the operational work in logistics in a country. meanwhile, institutional, or regulatory support is mostly a supporting factor and is performed by the government. the whole process is defined by supply chain connectivity, where both the private sector and government work together to move goods across borders, starting from producers in one country until they safely arrive at the consumer in another (gani, 2017; arvis et al., 2018). the government area is prone to change and requires excessive agency coordination. in addition, customs, infrastructure, and compliances are policy and stimulus sensitive. customs are usually time-consuming, need unnecessary paperwork, and require coordination among several customs agencies (gani, 2017). these problems result in long transit delays that can significantly lower exports of goods in a country (hummels & schaur, 2013). typically, developing countries have higher trade costs than developed countries, a part of which is prone to corruption. unexpected costs such as bribery or corruption are quite a problem in trade cost regulation, resulting in a welfare loss that can reduce trade (gani, 2017; hornok & koren, 2015). figure 2 conceptual framework of the study customs is one of the cores of the government’s area of logistics performance and is considered a necessity. further, it may fall to a short-term policy because cutting down on custom procedures is considered fast relative to infrastructure improvement. therefore, the modernization of customs procedures starts with good governance. a expected increase in asean member states’ export value gravity model private sector: tracking and tracing, logistics services, competitive price for shipment, timeliness government: efficiency of customs, infrastructures, time and cost for documentary and border compliances economic sizes: gdp, income level, advance ment level distance geographical: distance between 2 capitals non-physical: language, border trade cost: traditional (tariffs), nontariff measures (logistics performance connectivity, institutions, regulations) behind the border beyond the border ardine, revindo, rezki, & dewi the impact of logistic performance on intra-asean trade jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 37 modernized customs procedure makes delivering goods across borders more efficient in both cost and time. improving cost efficiency and time to trade can directly impact exports, thus creating a more competitive business to participate in the global value chain (shujie & shilu, 2009). the last but equally and usually considered the most important factor in increasing export value in the government’s area of improvement is infrastructure (feenstra & ma, 2014; felipe & kumar, 2012; halaszovich & kinra, 2020; martí et al., 2014; portugal-perez & wilson, 2012). infrastructure is more of a long-term investment. it is also prone to change since it depends on the budget the government is willing to spend in a given period on infrastructure. infrastructure is a huge constraint in developing countries, but lately, it has been improving (arvis et al., 2018). as a supporting role, good infrastructure should affect all components in the private sector’s area of improvement, such as services, prices, and timeliness. for example, if a toll road in a country is in bad condition or cannot be used, exports will be delayed as a connectivity problem. an inadequate infrastructure shows a country’s isolation from the international market (gani, 2017). the conclusion for the government’s area of improvement is that, in the short term, improving customs efficiency is easier and cheaper than improving infrastructure. while in the long term, improving infrastructure will have a greater and more significant impact on trade (feenstra & ma, 2014). although the government’s role is important, the private sector is the key player who actually does the operations. private sector areas include the ability to track and trace, logistics services, competitive prices for shipment, and timeliness. the business players include shippers, forwarders, trucking companies, terminal operators, and rail companies. hummels and schaur (2013) show that fast but expensive air cargo has risen 2.6 times faster than slow but cheap ocean ships. this shows how products to be exported are timesensitive, where any delays in transporting goods will cause a decrease in exports. in addition, the increase in export prices paid to ship companies will lower exports. a competitive price and a wide choice of export transportation options are needed. however, it can be done if only the transportation infrastructure is in good condition (gani, 2017; jiang et al., 2018). overall, the flow of transporting goods from one country to another involves parties, both from the private sector and government agencies. for example, the availability to track and trace goods is a combination of work between shipping companies and a country’s single window in trade. each party has its own but interdependent role; hence good coordination is needed to make export easier (sholihah et al., 2018). research method this study aims to estimate the impact of logistics performance on intra-asean trade. in doing so, this study replicates the works marti et al. (2014), gani (2017), and sy et al., (2020) that performed such estimation using the gravity model, and applying their approach in the context of asean. the basic gravity model is proposed by tinbergen (1962) and expressed in equation (1) as follows: ardine, revindo, rezki, & dewi the impact of logistic performance on intra-asean trade jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 38 𝑇𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑒𝑖𝑗 = 𝛼𝐺𝐷𝑃𝑖𝐺𝐷𝑃𝑗 𝐷𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒𝑖𝑗 ....................................................................................................... (1) in the gravity model shown in equation (1), trade is supposedly proportional to the economic size of two trading countries (represented by gdp) and the inverse of the geographical distance between them. however, previous studies argued that the distance could be widely interpreted by all types of costs and barriers that may hinder trade. for example, other than physical distance (geographical location), trade can also be influenced by psychological distance (e.g., culture and language differences, and colonization history) (portugal-perez & wilson, 2012; luthfianto et al., 2016; halaszovich & kinra, 2020). further, trade can also be hampered by technical and administrative distance, including trade barriers and logistics costs (marti et al., 2014; gani, 2017; sy et al., 2020). accordingly, those three studies employed the world bank’s lpi components as proxies to measure the last type of distance. considering that extended gravity model, our study constructs the variables with the description provided in tables 2 and 3. the dependent variable (tradeij) is represented by the export value of the bilateral trade data of 10 asean member states in country pairs, including singapore, thailand, vietnam, malaysia, indonesia, philippines, brunei, laos, cambodia, and myanmar. the economic size of the exporting and importing countries are used as control variables, represented by gdpi and gdpj, respectively. the other control variables include geographical distance and psychological distance, represented by a common language and borders. finally, the technical distance is represented by six components of the world bank’s lpi and trade facilitation measurement data using the four components of the world bank’s trading across border. there are a total of 90 country pairs from the periods 2007, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2018. the period is chosen following world bank’s lpi data availability. the world bank’s lpi consists of worldwide surveys on trade operators (global freight forwarders and express carriers). they filled in the survey online and were required to rate eight countries on the six most important logistics components. countries are chosen based on the most important export and import markets of the country where the respondents are located. as for the world bank’s trading across borders, border compliance includes customs regulations and other related inspections for shipments by customs agencies. documentary compliance includes documents required for government agencies in the exporter country, the importer country, and even every transit. it includes requirements from government agencies, starting from getting the document issued and stamped, completing a customs declaration or certificate of origin, waiting time for the issued certificate, showing the documents to port authorities, and submitting the customs declaration (which can be in person or electronically). hence, logistics performance can also be classified into two groups based on improvement responsibility: areas for improvement for the private sector and government. ardine, revindo, rezki, & dewi the impact of logistic performance on intra-asean trade jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 39 table 2 description of variables: gravity no variables measurement data sources years expected signs dependent variable 1 export value in million current usd cepii based on uncomtrade 2007, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2018 control variable 2 gdp (origin, destination) in million current usd cepii 2007, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2018 (+) 3 geographical distance in kilometer (-) 4 common language dummy variable 1= have common language, 0 = otherwise (+) 5 common borders dummy variable 1= have common borders, 0 = otherwise uncertain table 3 description of variables: logistics performance no classification variables of interest data sources and measurement years expected signs 1 private sectors tracking and tracing world bank's logistic performance index "very low" (1) to "very high" (5) 2007, 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2018 (+) 2 competence of logistics services (+) 3 competitive price of shipment (+) 4 frequency on scheduled time (+) 5 government efficiency of customs world bank's logistic performance index "very low" (1) to "very high" (5) 2007, 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2018 (+) 6 quality of infrastructures (+) 7 time to export: documentary compliance world bank's trading across borders time in hours, cost in usd 2016 and 2018 (-) 8 time to export: border compliance (-) 9 cost to export: documentary compliance (-) 10 cost to export: border compliance (-) ardine, revindo, rezki, & dewi the impact of logistic performance on intra-asean trade jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 40 following marti et al. (2014), this study uses six different equations for lpi estimation since analyzing all measurements of lpi in one equation will lead to multicollinearity due to the correlation nature of the components. this goes the same for time and cost of trade, in which this study uses two different equations for each border and documentary compliance. the estimated equations are as follows: 𝐿𝑛𝑋𝑖𝑗𝑡 = 𝛽0 + 𝛽1𝐿𝑛(𝐺𝐷𝑃𝑖𝑡 ) + 𝛽2𝐿𝑛(𝐺𝐷𝑃𝑗𝑡 ) − 𝛽3𝐿𝑛(𝐷𝐼𝑆𝑇𝑖𝑗𝑡 ) + 𝛽4(𝐿𝑃 ∗) + 𝛽𝐴(𝑊) + 𝑈𝑖𝑗𝑡 ................................................................................................................... 2 where xijt is export value, export volume from country i to j at time t; gdpit is gdp of country i at time t; gdpjt is gdp of country j at time t; distijt is the distance from country i to j at time t; lp is logistics performance of the exporting countries; w is dummy variables (common languages, common borders); uijt is the standard error. in estimating equation (2), logistics performance is described further into 10 different measurements, as stated in tables 2 and 3. therefore, ten separate models capture each logistics performance as the variable of interest. for lpi components, variables will be measured in levels, while time and cost for both documentary and border compliance variables will be measured in logarithmic form. the first step of the panel data analysis employs breusch and pagan lagrangian multiplier to decide between ordinary least squares (ols) or random effect (re). since the result shows a panel effect and significant differences across units, re is then preferred. the second step is hausman test to decide between re and fixed effect (fe). since the result shows that unique errors correlate with the regressors, feis is preferred. unfortunately, fe model drops all time-invariant explanatory variables that are important in gravity models, such as distance and dummy variables. another estimation method is then considered, poisson pseudo maximum likelihood (ppml), as used by similar studies such as the study of uae trade potential by dadakas et al. (2020). developed by silva and tenreyro (2006), ppml is a promising method to estimate models like gravity equation since a large proportion of zero dependent variables, which is common in trade data and appears in our dataset2, does not affect the estimation result (gómez-herrera, 2013). in addition, ppml also gives proper and unbiased estimation given the presence of heteroscedasticity3 (silva and tenreyro, 2011; gómezherrera, 2013), which is also common in trade data and appears in our dataset. further, ppml weighs all observations equally, and its mean is always positive. however, gómezherrera (2013) also argued that ppml has a disadvantage as it may present limiteddependent variable bias when a significant part of the observations are censored. 2 zero trade country pairs: lao pdr and myanmar didn’t export to the rest of asean member states in 2007 3 breusch-pagan test for heteroscedasticity result: the probability value of the chi-square statistic is less than 0.05, implying that the null hypothesis of constant variance can be rejected at a 5% level of significance. in conclusion, there exists heteroscedasticity in the residuals. ardine, revindo, rezki, & dewi the impact of logistic performance on intra-asean trade jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 41 result and discussion descriptive analysis in terms of gdp, asean’s economy grew more than threefold from 2007 to 2021, making it one of the top 10 largest economies in the world as a country group. the population also grew from 572 to 662 million (aseanstat, 2022). indonesia is the largest in both gdp and population size, while brunei darussalam is the smallest. in terms of income group, singapore and brunei are the only member states in the high-income group, while the rest are split up into upper and lower-middle-income groups. despite its growing economy and population, intra-asean trade fluctuated with setbacks in 2009 (due to the global financial crisis), 2014-2016, 2019, and 2020 (due to the covid-19 pandemic) (aseanstat, 2022). regarding physical borders, most of asean member states are connected by land, except the philippines. indonesia and the philippines are maritime countries surrounded by sea, but indonesia has a common border with malaysia. in terms of the psychological border, there are only 3 country pairs in asean that have a common language, namely bruneimalaysia and malaysia-singapore (malay), and singapore-philippines (english). table 4 shows the changes in lpi of asean member states from the year 2007 to 2018 in terms of the average score of each component, the gaps, and the best performers. overall, the asean member states improved all logistics performance components during the period. the most improvement was recorded in the ability to track and trace consignment in shipping, which score increased by 0.24. this might be due to the private sector's development and wide use of information and communication technology. quality of trade and transport related to infrastructure stayed on the lowest score but, despite its improvement, indicated by an additional score of 0.10. this is probably due to the long-term and costly nature of infrastructure development. in terms of member states’ performance, myanmar had the lowest score of lpi in 2007, while singapore was the best performer. in 2018, singapore was still the best performer, while myanmar levelled with lao pdr at the bottom. during the 2007-2018 period, the minimum score in each component showed improvements, and correspondingly the gaps between the best and the lowest performers also decreased in each component. table 4 asean member states logistics performance index 2007 and 2018 year statistics track trace competence ease efficiency frequency quality 2007 mean 2.82 2.89 2.88 2.77 3.34 2.69 min 1.57 2.00 1.73 2.07 2.08 1.69 max 4.25 4.21 4.04 3.90 4.53 4.27 gaps 2.68 2.21 2.30 1.83 2.45 2.58 2018 mean 3.06 3.00 3.01 2.80 3.37 2.79 min 2.20 2.28 2.20 2.17 2.84 1.99 max 4.08 4.10 3.58 3.89 4.32 4.06 gaps 1.88 1.82 1.38 1.72 1.48 2.07 source: world bank (2021) note: range “very low” (1) to “very high” (5). ardine, revindo, rezki, & dewi the impact of logistic performance on intra-asean trade jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 42 table 5 shows asean member states’ trading across borders score in 2016 and 2018. overall, singapore was still the best performer. further, despite the slight improvement tendency shown by each member state, there were no significant reforms in some aspects. table 5 asean member states’ trading across borders 2016 and 2018 country time documentary (hours) time border (hours) cost documentary (usd) cost border (usd) 2016 2018 2016 2018 2016 2018 2016 2018 brunei 168 155 120 117 90 90 340 340 indonesia 72 61.32 62.6 62.6 170 138.8 253.7 253.7 cambodia 132 132 48 48 100 100 375 375 lao pdr 60 60 13 13 235 235 140 140 myanmar 144 144 144 141.6 140 140 431.7 431.7 malaysia 10 10 48 45 35 35 274 274 philippines 36 36 42.5 42.5 52.5 52.5 456 456 singapore 2 2 12 10 37 37 335 335 thailand 11.3 11.3 51 51 96.9 96.9 222.6 222.6 vietnam 83.1 50 60.4 55 139.2 139.2 309.1 290 estimation results appendix 1 shows the ppml estimation results. model (1) includes basic control variables in the gravity model: gdp origin, gdp destination, the distance between capitals, common language, and common border. models (2) to (5) include variables of interest from private sector areas of improvement: tracking and tracing; competence of logistics services; ease and competitive shipping price; and frequency of scheduled time. models (6) to (11) include variables of interest from government areas of improvement, which are the efficiency of customs and clearance, quality of infrastructure, time and cost at the border, and time and cost for documentary compliance. model 1 shows the ppml estimation results with export value as the dependent variable and control variables as the independent. the estimated signs of the coefficients are as expected. gdp in origin and destination countries significantly impacts export value, supporting previous findings reported by ho et al. (2021) and sunaryati (2015). an increase of gdp in the origin country of 1% will increase export value by usd 8,210, ceteris paribus. on the other hand, an increase of gdp in the destination country of 1% will increase export value by usd 7,310, ceteris paribus. the magnitude might seem similar, but it is noteworthy that the role of gdp in the origin country on export value is significantly larger than the gdp in the destination country. according to wardani (2016), gdp in the origin country reflects the production capacity, whereas gdp in the destination country indicates the market size. therefore, the higher the gdp in the origin country, the higher the production capacity and, thus, the export capacity due to economies of scale (wardani, 2016; ridwannulloh & sunaryati, 2018). the distance variable is also significant and has a negative sign which shows that an increase in distance will lower the export value. an increase in distance between two ardine, revindo, rezki, & dewi the impact of logistic performance on intra-asean trade jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 43 countries of 1% will decrease the export value by usd11,810, ceteris paribus. this result agrees with wardani (2016), which suggests that greater distance between countries can lead to lower exports. exports are reduced as distance increases because of the higher transportation costs. model (2), (3), (4), and (5) shows the ppml estimation results with export value as the dependent variable and logistics performance of the private sector as the independent variable. ppml estimation results are significant, and the signs are as expected for most independent variables, except for the cost of border compliance. this shows that any improvement in logistics performance by the private sector can increase export value. since all variables in the private sector area are in the same unit of measurement, the order of importance can be shown directly, with all control variables being equal. the order of importance from the most to the least are; competitive price of the shipment, frequency on scheduled time, tracking and tracing, and competence of logistics services. an increase of 1 unit in competitive shipment price will increase export value by usd 1,226,000, ceteris paribus. if the problem arises from increasing shipment costs, exporters might focus on exporting goods that may not be great in volume, but high in value, as supported by hornok and koren (2015). increasing 1 unit in frequency on scheduled time will increase export value by usd 1,207,000, ceteris paribus. previous literature shows that longer transit delays can lower trade. this explains the importance of arriving on scheduled time. time is important since many exports are time-sensitive. they might be needed to be transported faster due to the continuity of the supply chain. small disturbances due to delays can affect another part of the chain. as the final receiver of goods, consumers will also demand timely shipment. an increase of 1 unit in tracking and tracing will increase export value by usd 1,060,000, ceteris paribus. the improvement made by countries to improve their private sector’s ability to track and trace goods depends on the role of ict. not only ict helps to inform parties about the schedule, but it also helps to see the exact location of goods that are being transported. the traditional method of tracking and tracing may consist solely of calling the drivers or those who are currently moving the products, but the implementation of ict-based tracking and tracing can result in a large rise in export value. an increase of 1 unit in the competence of logistics services will increase export value by usd 925,000 usd, ceteris paribus. based on its definition, logistics services evaluate the competence of transport operators such as shipping companies, trucking companies, freight forwarders, and customs brokers to help exporters deal with tariffs, laws, documentaries, and payment needed to the customs agency. freight forwarders and customs brokers are two different entities, while the former focus on managing the shipment of goods to the destination country, and focus on the destination country’s customs clearance. models (6) to (11) show the government’s area of improvement. most of the variables are significant at a 1% level, except for the cost of border compliance. the signs of the ardine, revindo, rezki, & dewi the impact of logistic performance on intra-asean trade jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 44 significant variables are as expected. variables in government areas differ in the unit of measurement; thus, the order of importance cannot be shown directly. an increase of 1 unit in the quality of infrastructure will increase export value by usd 793,000, ceteris paribus. infrastructure might stay behind customs, but the impact is similar. infrastructure is a long-term policy, prone to change, depending on how each ruling government spends the state budget on infrastructure. an increase of 1 unit in the efficiency of customs will increase export value by usd 827,000, ceteris paribus. increasing 1 unit in customs performance is preferred over infrastructure. the main reason lies in the ease of integrating asean member states’ custom procedures rather than integrating infrastructures. the increased customs efficiency will depend on the ict level and coordination among customs agencies. an increase of 1% of the time for documentary compliance will decrease the export value by usd 3,420, ceteris paribus. an increase of 1% of the time for border compliance will decrease the export value by usd 840, ceteris paribus. in this case, time is more important for documentary compliance, including waiting time to sign documents, certificate of origin, and customs declaration. the longer the time to process documents to export, the more export will decrease. an increase of 1% in cost for documentary compliance will decrease the export value by usd 5,010, ceteris paribus. again, documentary compliance is also significant. the more cost needed for documentary compliance, the less export value. in the case of all asean, the border compliance cost is insignificant in explaining the export value. discussion the coefficients for ppml estimates might be smaller than ols estimates for the same dataset, as argued by silva and tenreyro (2006). therefore, this study cannot directly compare the magnitude of logistics performance with previous studies that used other estimation strategies. however, the pattern for which component might affect trade more than others is similar to previous studies mentioned in the literature review. continuing the work of gani (2017), which includes only three asean member states out of the 60 countries studied, this study expands the analysis across all asean member states. the estimation results show that the impact of the short-term policy of customs in asean has more magnitude than a long-term policy of infrastructure, ceteris paribus to control variables. from the private sector area of change, the results align with gani (2017), where timeliness and competitive shipping prices in asean have the largest impact on trade. private sector area of improvement the private sector actors are shipping companies, freight forwarders, and customs brokers. based on the estimation results, all components significantly affect export value. the average of asean member states’ lpi score for the private sector is of change is ardine, revindo, rezki, & dewi the impact of logistic performance on intra-asean trade jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 45 considered good with a score above 3.00. certain member states, especially singapore, dominate the considerably high score. as previously discussed, the highest magnitude is improving competitive shipping prices. however, the problem of asean is the existence of gaps within its member states. for example, asean member states’ shipping capacity is different. singapore, malaysia, and indonesia have more competitive international shipping that is not dominated by foreign shipping, unlike the rest of the asean member states (tongzon & lee, 2015). with the assistance of government regulation, the private sector should prioritize the competitive price of shipping since a reduction in freight rate can reduce the cost of trade, thereby increasing the involvement of smaller firms on the worldwide market (melitz, 2003; lawless, 2010). table 6 shows the gap in the private sector’s logistics performance among asean member states that can be used to show improvements needed by each member state. indonesia, malaysia, singapore, thailand, and vietnam’s private sector logistics performance were above average in 2018. in contrast, brunei, cambodia, lao pdr, myanmar, and the philippines were still below average. this data supports recent literature where lower middle-income countries tend to have a lower logistics performance (bugarčić et al., 2020; gani, 2017). although, brunei is an exception, as we argued in the first place. brunei, as predicted, was lacking in logistics performance despite being a high-income country. each asean member state has its field where they lack. for example, the largest gap is shown by myanmar in terms of tracking and tracing, with a score gap of 0.886 below average. the effort to create a more competitive private sector is developing at both regional and national levels. asean freight forwarder association is an example of regional integration by the private sector. each member states have its own national association, although under different but similar names (e.g., indonesian logistics and forwarders association, federation of malaysian freight forwarders). their works represent the growing realization in the importance of asean’s convergence. they started with the initiation of table 6 gaps among asean member states private sector’s logistics performance (2018) country tracking and tracing gaps competence of logistics services gaps ease/competitive price shipment gaps frequency on scheduled time gaps 2018 2018 2018 2018 brunei 2.747 -0.341 2.710 -0.303 2.513 -0.515 3.174 -0.227 indonesia 3.300 0.212 3.100 0.087 3.228 0.200 3.670 0.269 cambodia 2.515 -0.573 2.408 -0.605 2.794 -0.234 3.155 -0.245 lao pdr 2.914 -0.174 2.649 -0.364 2.716 -0.313 2.843 -0.558 myanmar 2.202 -0.886 2.279 -0.734 2.199 -0.829 2.908 -0.492 malaysia 3.148 0.060 3.298 0.285 3.348 0.319 3.464 0.064 philippines 3.059 -0.029 2.776 -0.237 3.293 0.264 2.984 -0.417 singapore 4.080 0.992 4.100 1.087 3.580 0.552 4.320 0.920 thailand 3.467 0.379 3.411 0.398 3.457 0.429 3.814 0.414 vietnam 3.450 0.362 3.399 0.386 3.155 0.127 3.672 0.272 average 3.088 3.013 3.028 3.400 ardine, revindo, rezki, & dewi the impact of logistic performance on intra-asean trade jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 46 ministers of transport and communication of asean member states in 1985 and have been developing until recent times. at both regional and national levels, they focus on coordinating with government agencies to negotiate and make agreements and dialogue to give input and insight for policy making. they also guide private sectors to meet international standards, increasing competitiveness and increasing service quality. some national level associations also give training. for example, singapore logistics association offers exclusive training and learning for the logistics workforce under the logistics academy, which is a private education institute. government area of improvement government area of improvement is complex. it requires coordination among ministries as policymakers, customs agencies, and even infrastructure heavily rely on state budgets. based on the estimation results, time for documentary compliance is considered the most important. customs and infrastructure are almost equally important depending on whether states focus on short-term or long-term policy, with customs having a slightly larger impact on export than infrastructure quality. time for border compliance, including inspections, is not as important as time for documentary compliance. on the other hand, the cost of documentary and border compliance differ in importance. this can be interpreted as the preference of the exporter in terms of cost. exporters in lower to middle-income asean member states might not be concerned about the cost of arranging documents and certificates, as long as it is not a bribery payment. table 7 gaps among asean member states customs efficiency and infrastructure (2018) country efficiency of customs/clearance gaps quality of infrastructure gaps 2018 2018 brunei 2.622 -0.163 2.461 -0.341 indonesia 2.673 -0.112 2.895 0.093 cambodia 2.370 -0.415 2.145 -0.657 lao pdr 2.613 -0.172 2.441 -0.360 myanmar 2.167 -0.618 1.995 -0.807 malaysia 2.898 0.113 3.147 0.345 philippines 2.529 -0.256 2.726 -0.076 singapore 3.887 1.102 4.064 1.262 thailand 3.142 0.357 3.138 0.336 vietnam 2.950 0.165 3.005 0.204 average 2.785 2.802 table 7 shows the gap among asean member states’ customs efficiency and quality of trade and transport-related infrastructure to show improvements that are needed by each member state. in the previous section, we discussed the magnitude impact of the improvement made by the government on export value. the magnitude impacts of one unit increase on export value are quite similar between the efficiency of customs (827,000 usd) and quality of trade and transport related (793,000 usd). however, similar to gaps ardine, revindo, rezki, & dewi the impact of logistic performance on intra-asean trade jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 47 in the private sector area, the gaps in government areas still existed and were dominated by lower-middle-income countries, except for brunei. infrastructure (e.g., ports, roads, airports, ict) is still a problem for lower-middle-income countries. as shown in table 7, brunei, indonesia, cambodia, lao pdr, myanmar, and the philippines have significant gaps from the rest of the asean member states. myanmar is the least developed country in terms of the quality of trade-related infrastructure. given the importance that can be seen from the magnitude of impact, prioritizing building international quality infrastructure is needed, especially for myanmar. plummer et al. (2016) show how myanmar actually has a potential trade-related infrastructure. surrounded by india, thailand, china, and lao pdr by borders should give myanmar opportunities to increase its trade performance. developing their deep-sea ports for big containers and improving road infrastructures for traded goods moved by land should be myanmar’s priority. for other countries that are still lagging in infrastructure, involving the private sector to build infrastructure is needed to reduce the high financing cost of infrastructure (plummer et al., 2016). in addition, ict-related infrastructure is on the list of improvements. this improvement is quite related to the next component, which is customs efficiency. in the case of indonesia, the quality of infrastructure is slightly above average, while the efficiency of the customs needs improvement. since 2017, the indonesian government has shown its interest in infrastructure development by allocating an enormous budget. as a result, indonesia’s trade-related infrastructure quality is already improving. this does not imply that infrastructure is unnecessary since allocating the infrastructure’s budget in indonesia might be targeted to achieve connectivity within the nation. improving the efficiency of their custom is also the top priority, given the importance and magnitude of customs on the export value that is slightly higher than infrastructure. the cost of removing customs barriers might be lower than improving the quality of hard infrastructure. however, the political cost of reforming customs procedures might be larger than it seems, especially in lower-middle-income countries. nevertheless, modernizing customs procedures should be more beneficial than the cost. an efficient customs procedure helps to boost firm productivity, solve tax problems, and remove corruption at the border (cadot et al., 2017; moïsé & le bris, 2013). in reality, asean member states do have their own national single window to promote the efficiency of customs, but their successful implementation rates differ. burdensome requirements, discrimination, lack of client orientation, minimum use of technology, and bureaucratic delays are still asean’s problems, especially in myanmar (cadot et al., 2017; tongzon & lee, 2016). indonesia, for example, has more than 15 private and government agencies working on its indonesia national single window (insw), so it takes all agencies to work together in one single platform. ardine, revindo, rezki, & dewi the impact of logistic performance on intra-asean trade jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 48 table 8 gaps among asean member states’ trading across borders score (2018) country time documentary (hours) gaps time border (hours) gaps cost documentary (usd) gaps cost border (usd) gaps 2018 2018 2018 2018 brunei 155 -88.838 117 -58.43 90 16.44 340 -28.2 indonesia 61.32 4.842 62.6 -4.03 138.8 -32.36 253.7 58.1 cambodia 132 -65.838 48 10.57 100 6.44 375 -63.2 lao pdr 60 6.162 13 45.57 235 -128.56 140 171.8 myanmar 144 -77.838 141.6 -83.03 140 -33.56 431.7 -119.9 malaysia 10 56.162 45 13.57 35 71.44 274 37.8 philippines 36 30.162 42.5 16.07 52.5 53.94 456 -144.2 singapore 2 64.162 10 48.57 37 69.44 335 -23.2 thailand 11.3 54.862 51 7.57 96.9 9.54 222.6 89.2 vietnam 50 16.162 55 3.57 139.2 -32.76 290 21.8 average 66.162 58.57 106.44 311.8 the pattern for time and cost is more diverse than customs efficiency and infrastructure. table 8 shows how lao pdr is improving regarding time and cost, with only a gap (128.56 usd) left in the cost for documentary compliance. indonesia (32.36 usd) and myanmar (33.56 usd) were also still below the average in terms of cost for documentary compliance. for example, in 2018, indonesia’s largest gap was in the cost of documentary compliance, with a total cost exceeding the average cost of asean member states. this aligns with the regulation proposed by the indonesian government in april 2018, where the cost for a certificate of origin’s establishment increases from 0.36 usd/idr 5,000.00 in previous years to 1.8 usd/idr 25,000.00 (peraturan pemerintah nomor 31 tahun 2017). these gaps support recent literature where the limitations in the government’s area of improvement in lower-middle-income countries include unnecessary customs procedures, physical inspection, corruption in border compliance, and lack of infrastructure (gani, 2017). in 2020, as a response to the global pandemic, indonesia decided to cut the cost of establishing a certificate of origin to zero. in return, they expect an increase in export performance. this study cannot provide further information regarding the impact magnitude on export. however, if possible, the reduction in cost needs to be examined for other document requirements such as customs declaration, export permit, contract, etc. time for documentary compliance was still a problem for brunei, cambodia, and myanmar, where their time still exceeded the asean’s average time. in 2018, in terms of time for border compliance, brunei and myanmar were still behind other member states’ performance, while indonesia slightly underperformed. lastly, the cost of border compliance differs in each asean member state. there was no certain pattern of why some states have higher costs (e.g., singapore’s cost for border compliance is 2.3 times higher than lao pdr). the key to improving asean’s problem in time and cost for both documentary and border compliance lies in the importance of modernization of customs procedures as suggested by gani (2017), for example, national single window on a national level. thus, each member state has first to improve its governance quality for ardine, revindo, rezki, & dewi the impact of logistic performance on intra-asean trade jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 49 such regulation to be fully implemented. however, ntms are not meant to be fully eliminated. cadot et al. (2017) show that shifting towards a more improved regulatory agency is needed. in response to the gaps mentioned above, asean as a region has made a good start since its early days on reaching convergence and ease in the government area of improvement. first, asean member states must participate in a related framework, the asean framework agreement on facilitation of goods in transit (afafgit). afafgit was initially signed in 1998. under afafgit, asean established asean customs transit systems (acts) for goods that are transported by road. this ict-based system helps exporters to pay and prepare for only one customs procedure. there will not be several customs declarations from the origin to the destination country. all information and electronic data are already stored in the system. coordination of customs and land transport authorities allows eligible licensed qualifying vehicles to operate across borders so truck changes will not occur in a different country. singapore, thailand, and malaysia are asean member states that joined the pilot phase for acts in 2020. the rest of the asean member states have agreed on acts and already agreed with each country’s designated routes and customs offices. the implementation depends on the level of readiness of ams. not only in transit systems, but asean as a region is also currently working on asean single window (asw). this requires its member states to implement their own national single window fully. asw enables the exchange of electronic trade-related documents between customs and other government agencies, the transport sector, as well as bank and insurance agencies. this will help exporters to reduce the time and cost to export goods. starting from march 2016, indonesia and singapore have already exchanged their electronic asean certificate of origin, form d. other trade-related documents, such as custom declarations, is also in progress as an expansion of asw under the name asean customs declaration document (accd). in december 2020, singapore, cambodia, and myanmar joined and implemented accd. other asean member countries are expected to join by late 2021. in addition to that, asean member states’ public policies are different from each other. tongzon and lee (2013) show how singapore and malaysia provided more maritime sector subsidies than indonesia and the philippines. reaching infrastructure convergence in asean is also tough. each member state might have different priorities, budgets, strategies, or other infrastructure regulations. given the fact that asean’s infrastructure quality is growing, the gap still exists. recently, asean has been working on the framework for improving asean infrastructure productivity. the goals are to make asean member states have the same understanding of the importance of infrastructure and to improve their infrastructure further. this framework focuses on building a sustainable infrastructure plan, making infrastructure still relatable even in the future. asean is encouraging its member states to have a coordinated, datadriven, and well-planned infrastructure as priorities. a well-built coordination of regulations and standards has proven beneficial since it increases welfare. in conclusion, convergence logistics performance can help reduce trade costs to help domestic and least productive firms participate in international trade (moïsé & le bris, 2013). ardine, revindo, rezki, & dewi the impact of logistic performance on intra-asean trade jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 50 conclusion this paper examines the impact of logistics performance on intra-asean trade. the findings revealed statistically significant impacts of most logistics performance components on export value. improvements made by the private sector and government areas of responsibility have similar and significant impacts on export value. short-term customs policy reform has more impact on mean export value than long-term infrastructure development policy. the private sector is the main actor in transporting goods across borders, with the competitive price of the shipment being the most important component. time and cost are areas of improvement that are important in increasing asean’s export value by the private sector. while giving input to the government through discussion is important, adjusting more focus on internal quality is equally important. on the other hand, government-related policies, especially customs, administrative time, and cost, play a similarly significant role in export. as supported by hornok & koren (2015), trade facilitation in terms of government-related logistics performance will benefit trade more if all countries are at the customs union level rather than just a free trade area. this condition is supported by the movement toward an asean economic community that may act as a substitute for the customs union. another issue regarding public policy is the priorities set and planned by the governments of each member state. the main goal should be the progress of asean’s connected and developed customs and infrastructure. convergence with the rest of the asean member states in trade policy and requirements is needed. given its importance, infrastructure should be the main priority of asean member states. there are limitations to this study. first, since this study uses ppml other than fixed effect, all impacts on export are initially calculated by levels, not percentage changes. second, the data for cost and time for documentary and border compliance changed its method in 2016, so this study only uses data from 2016 and 2018. there are a few suggestions for future studies. first, future studies may consider examining the extra-asean trade level since asean member states trade more with other countries outside asean. second, following previous literature, this study only uses logistics performance data from the world bank’s logistics performance index and trading across border. this paper suggests 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jalan lingkar selatan, tamantirto, kasihan, bantul, yogyakarta, telp/fax. 0274‐387656 psw 184,  387646  e‐mail: macrov_jogja@yahoo.com  abstrak: penelitian ini menganalisis minat konsumen dalam membeli barang bekas pakai di pasar klithikan pakuncen yogyakarta. tujuan penelitian ini untuk menentukan apakah kualitas produk, harga, dan layanan mempengaruhi minat konsumen untuk membeli secara signifikan pada barang bekas pakai dengan menggunakan uji t atau uji f secara individual secara kolektif. penelitian ini juga melakukan pengujian asumsi klasik. berdasarkan hasil analisis yang telah dilakukan, menunjukkan bahwa variabel jumlah kualitas produk berpengaruh secara signifikan pada jumlah pembelian konsumen karena nilai statistik t sebesar 3,957 lebih besar dari nilai t tabel sebesar 0.000. variabel harga berpengaruh secara signifikan pada tingkat pembelian konsumen karena nilai statistik t sebesar 5,463 lebih besar dari nilai t tabel sebesar 0.000. variabel layanan berpengaruh secara signifikan pada jumlah pembelian konsumen karena nilai statistik t sebesar 3,667 lebih besar dari nilai t tabel sebesar 0.000. kata kunci: kualitas produk, harga, pengaruh layanan, pembelian konsumen abstract: this research analyses the consumer purchases interest on the used goods in pakuncen klithikan market. it aims to find out whether the quality of product, price and service affect the customer purchase interest significantly on the used goods by using t test individually or f test collectively. the study also conducts classical assumption test. base on analysis which have been done result indicate that variable sum of the quality product significant influence on the consumer purchase because value of t statistic equal to 3,957 bigger than value of t tables equal to 0,000. for the variable price significant influence on the consumer purchase because value of t statistic equal to 5,463 bigger than value of t tables equal to 0,000. variable service effect significant influence on the consumer purchase because value of t statistic equal to 3,667 bigger than value of t tables equal to 0,000. keywords: quality product, price, service effect, consumer purchase pendahuluan  kepuasan  pelanggan  merupakan  tingkat  perasaan  seseorang  setelah  membandingkan  kinerja atau hasil yang dirasakan dibanding‐ kan  harapannya.  enggel  (1994)  menyatakan  bahwa  kepuasan  pelanggan  merupakan  evaluasi  purnabeli  setelah  alternatif  yang  dipilih sekurang‐kurangnya memberikan ha‐ sil sama atau melampaui harapan pelanggan.  banyak  pengusaha  yang  tidak  hanya  menawarkan  suatu  sistem  konsumsi  yaitu  penawaran yang ditandai dengan subsistem  produk  dan  pelayanan  yang  saling  terkait  atau dikonsumsi selama periode tertentu. se‐ cara  konseptual  ada  3  elemen  yang  mem‐ masihkah barang bekas ... (noor anisa dan ahmad ma’ruf)  111 bentuk sistem konsumen yaitu atribute level,  kepuasan,  dan  minat  berperilaku.  sistem  konsumsi  terdiri  dari  beberapa  subsistem  dengan sistem produk dan pelayanan sebagai  subsistem.  perspektif  sistem  konsumsi  mengakui  bahwa subsistem produk dan subsistem pe‐ layanan  saling  berpengaruh.  dampak  dari  saling berpengaruh ini mempunyai implikasi  bahwa  kepuasan  akan  produk  mempenga‐ ruhi minat berperilaku ke arah penyedia pe‐ layanan dan kepuasan akan pelayanan dapat  mempengaruhi  minat  berperilaku  ke  arah  manufaktur produk.  perkembangan  usaha  kecil  dan  mene‐ ngah pada sektor perdagangan di yogyakarta  berkembang  cukup  pesat,  termasuk  para  pedagang yang menjual barang bekas. salah  satu  arena  penjualan  barang  bekas  tersebut  adalah pasar klithikan. usaha jenis ini mulai  berkembang  di  kawasan  yogyakarta  sekitar  tahun 1960‐an. pada mulanya kegiatan terse‐ but  berawal  dari  keterampilan  sederhana  dalam  memperbaiki  barang‐barang  (roni  femri dethan, y. susilo, 2007; 35).  sekarang  ini,  pemerintah  kota  yogya‐ karta telah membangun pasar khusus untuk  para pedagang barang bekas, meskipun pada  perkembangannya banyak  juga barang baru  yang dijual di pasar yang berlokasi di pakun‐ cen  wirobrajan  yogyakarta  pasar  ini  biasa  disebut pasar “klithikan”, sebelumnya pasar  “klithikan”  tersebar  di  beberapa  tempat,  yaitu di kawasan  jalan mangkubumi, alun‐ alun  kidul,  dan  asem  gedhe  (kawasan  kranggan). langkah pemerintah tersebut di‐ maksudkan agar lokasi pasar “klithikan” ter‐ fokus sehingga memudahkan konsumen dan  juga  keberadaan  para  penjual  barang  bekas  tidak bertentangan dengan peraturan keterti‐ ban penggunaan trotoar.   pasar  “klithikan”  telah  melekat  sebagai  salah  satu  ciri  khas  kota  yogyakarta.  pasar  yang  awalnya  menjual  barang  bekas  pakai  tersebut  mulai  marak  pasca  krisis  ekonomi  tahun  1997  (kompas,  2007).  perkembangan  pasar “klithikan” cukup pesat yang ditandai  kenaikan  jumlah pengunjung dan nilai tran‐ saksi.  fenomena  perilaku  konsumen  terha‐ dap barang bekas yang meningkat jumlahnya  menjadi hal yang menarik untuk dicermati.  studi  ini  bertujuan  untuk  menganalisis  sejauh mana kualitas produk, harga, dan pe‐ layanan mempengaruhi minat beli masyara‐ kat  terhadap  barang  bekas,  dalam  hal  ini  yang  berada  di  pasar  ”klithikan”  pakuncen  yogyakarta.  tinjauan pustaka untuk studi ini sebagai  berikut.  pasar adalah seperangkat pembeli aktual  dan potensial dari sebuah produk. para pem‐ beli memiliki kebutuhan atau keinginan yang  sama yang dapat dipuaskan lewat pertukaran  dan  hubungan.  ukuran  pasar  tergantung  pada  jumlah  orang  yang  menunjukkan  ke‐ butuhan, memiliki sumber daya untuk  terli‐ bat dalam pertukaran, dan mau menawarkan  sumber‐sumber  daya  ini  dalam  pertukaran  yang mereka inginkan. pada mulanya, istilah  pasar berarti tempat pertemuan pembeli dan  penjual untuk menukarkan barang. ekonomi  menggunakan  istilah  pasar  untuk  mengarti‐ kan  kumpulan  pembeli  dan  penjual  yang  melakukan  transaksi dalam  tipe produk  ter‐ tentu,  seperti  pasar  perumahan  atau  pasar  beras.  akan  tetapi  pemasar  memandang  penjual sebagai industri dan pembeli sebagai  pasar (kotler, dan armstrong, 2001: 15).  james f. engel (freddy rangkuti, 2002: 58),  menegaskan  bahwa  perilaku  konsumen  adalah  tindakan  yang  langsung  terlibat  dalam  mendapatkan,  mengkonsumsi,  dan  menghabiskan  produk  dan  jasa  termasuk  proses  keputusan  yang  mendahului  dan  menyusul  tindakan  tersebut.  konsumen  ditempatkan  sebagai  sentral  perhatian,  se‐ jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 110 ‐ 119 112  hingga  perilaku  konsumen  perlu  dipelajari.  mempelajari  apa  yang  dibutuhkan  dan  di‐ inginkan oleh konsumen pada saat ini meru‐ pakan hal yang sangat penting.   memahami  konsumen  akan  menuntun  pemasar pada kebijakan pemasaran yang te‐ pat dan efisien. untuk mengetahui keinginan  dan kebutuhan konsumen, maka aspek‐aspek  yang  mempengaruhi  konsumen  secara  indi‐ vidu  seperti  persepsi,  cara  memperoleh  in‐ formasi,  sikap,  demografi,  kepribadian,  dan  gaya hidup perlu dianalisis.   terdapat tiga faktor yang mempengaruhi  pilihan  konsumen,  yaitu  1)  konsumen  indi‐ vidual. pilihan untuk membeli suatu produk  dengan merek tertentu dipengaruhi oleh hal‐ hal  yang  ada  pada  diri  konsumen;  2)  ling‐ kungan yang mempengaruhi konsumen; dan  3)  stimuli  pemasaran  atau  juga  disebut  strategi pemasaran. strategi pemasaran yang  banyak dibahas adalah satu‐satunya variable  dalam model ini yang dikendalikan oleh pe‐ masar  (sutisna,  2002:  18).  para  konsumen  membuat  keputusan  tidak  dalam  sebuah  tempat yang  terisolasi dari  lingkungan seki‐ tar.  perilaku  pembelian  mereka  sangat  dipengaruhi  oleh  faktor‐faktor  kebudayaan,  sosial,  pribadi,  dan  psikologis  (freddy rang‐ kuti, 2002: 60).   secara  historis,  teori  nilai  guna  (utility)  merupakan  teori  perilaku  konsumen  yang  terlebih dahulu dikembangkan untuk mene‐ rangkan  kelakuan  individu  dalam  memilih  barang‐barang  yang  akan  dibeli  dan  dikon‐ sumsinya.  sir  john  r  hick  telah  mengem‐ bangkan suatu pendekatan untuk mewujud‐ kan  prinsip  pemaksimuman  kepuasan  oleh  seorang konsumen yang mempunyai penda‐ patan  terbatas.  analisis  ini  dikenal  sebagai  analisis kurva kepuasan sama, yang meliputi  penggambaran  dua  macam  kurva,  yaitu  kurva  kepuasan  sama  dan  garis  anggaran  pengeluaran (sadono sukirno, 2005: 169).  ada empat pendekatan yang membicara‐ kan  bagaimana  fungsi  permintaan  itu  ter‐ bentuk,  yaitu:  pendekatan  kardinal  (cardinal  approach),  pendekatan  ordinal  (ordinal  ap‐ proach),  pendekatan  preference,  dan  pendekatan  atribute. kepuasan pelanggan  (customer satis‐ faction)  bergantung  pada  perkiraan  kinerja  produk  dalam  memberikan  nilai,  relatif  ter‐ hadap harapan pembeli. jika kinerja produk  jauh  lebih  rendah  dari  harapan  pelanggan,  pembeli tidak terpuaskan. jika kinerja sesuai  dengan harapan, pembeli lebih senang. peru‐ sahaan  pemasaran  terkemuka  akan  mencari  cara  sendiri  untuk  mempertahankan  kepua‐ san  pelanggannya.  pelanggan  yang  merasa  puas  akan  kembali  membeli,  dan  mereka  akan  memberi  tahu  yang  lain  tentang  pe‐ ngalaman baik mereka dengan produk terse‐ but.   kepuasan  pelanggan  berkaitan  erat  de‐ ngan  kualitas.  banyak  perusahaan  yang  mengadopsi program manajemen mutu total  (total  quality  management/tqm),  yang  diran‐ cang untuk perbaikan berkelanjutan produk,  jasa,  dan  proses  pemasaran  mereka.  mutu  mempunyai  pengaruh  langsung  terhadap  kinerja produk dan dengan demikian  terha‐ dap  kepuasan  pelanggan  (kotler,  dan  arm‐ strong, 2001: 13).  secara konseptual ada tiga elemen yang  membentuk sistem konsumsi, yaitu evaluasi  attribute‐level,  kepuasan  dan  minat  berperi‐ laku.  dalam  pendekatan  attribute‐level,  kepuasan  dan  minat  berperilaku  (behavioral  intensions),  model  multi  atribut  akan  lebih  tepat  digunakan  untuk  menguji  hubungan  ketiga variabel tersebut karena memiliki dua  kelebihan utama, yaitu perwujudan pengala‐ man  konsumsi  para  konsumen  dan  spesifi‐ kasi  tentang  kepuasan konsumen. pengaruh  antara performa atribut dan kepuasan terha‐ dap  produk  dan  pelayanan,  serta  intensi  pembelian  terhadap  produk  melalui  dealer  masihkah barang bekas ... (noor anisa dan ahmad ma’ruf)  113 telah  diteliti  sebelumnya  (hadiwijayanto,  2001).  hasil  penelitian  menunjukkan  pema‐ haman  terhadap  variabel‐variabel  tersebut.  kepuasan  pelayanan  pada  awalnya  berpe‐ ngaruh dalam menentukan intensitas pembe‐ lian  terhadap  produk  menjadi  lebih  menen‐ tukan  dalam  intensitas  pembelian  terhadap  produk maupun intensitas pembelian melalui  dealer,  tetapi  atribut  produk  dan  pelayanan  tetap menjadi kuncinya.  selain  itu  hadiwijayanto  (2007)  yang  menguji  atribut  dan  kinerja  kepuasan  juga  menemukan  hubungan  yang  positif  antara  variabel‐variabel tersebut dan sangat penting  bagi produsen dan dealer dalam pengambi‐ lan  keputusan,  karena  memiliki  dampak  langsung pada konsumen terutama kepuasan  dan  minat  pembelian.  pebedaan  penelitian  yang dilakukan peneliti ini dengan penelitian  hadiwijayanto (2007) terletak pada minat beli  masyarakat  terhadap barang bekas yang di‐ lakukan oleh peneliti. variabel yang diguna‐ kan dalam penelitian ini adalah kualitas pro‐ duk, harga, dan pelayanan.   hasil penelitian  terdahulu hadiwijayanto  (2007) bahwa atribut produk yang terdiri dari  atribut  model,  keandalan  mesin,  pengenda‐ lian  dan  pengereman  berpengaruh  positif  dan signifikan  terhadap minat beli  terhadap  produk. variabel pelayanan yang terdiri dari  atribut  kualitas  pekerjaan,  peralatan  yang  tersedia, kesabaran menerima dan kejujuran  juga  berpengaruh  positif  dan  signifikan  terhadap minat beli. variabel kepuasan yang  terdiri  dari  variabel  kepuasan  produk  dan  pelayanan  juga  berpengaruh  positif  dan  signifikan terhadap minat beli.   rullijanto  (2001)  melakukan  penelitian  yang  serupa  dengan  menggunakan  regresi  berganda  juga  menguji  hubungan  antara  kinerja atribut dan kinerja kepuasan juga me‐ nemukan hubungan yang positif antara vari‐ abel‐variabel  tersebut  dan  sangat  penting  bagi  produsen  dalam  pengambilan  keputu‐ san, karena memiliki dampak langsung pada  konsumen  terutama  kepuasan  dan  minat  pembelian.  metode   subyek  penelitian  ini  adalah  konsumen  di  pasar  “klithikan”  pakuncen  kecamatan  wi‐ robrajan kota yogyakarta. data yang diguna‐ kan  dalam  penelitian  ini  data  primer,  yaitu  data  yang  diperoleh  secara  langsung  dari  sumber  melalui  wawancara  (interview);  pe‐ ngamatan  (observation);  dan  kuesioner  (ques‐ tioner).  metode pengambilan sampel yang digu‐ nakan  dalam  penelitian  ini  adalah  metode  sampel  random  sederhana  (simple  random  sampling) yaitu desain pemilihan sampel yang  paling sederhana dan mudah. prinsip pemili‐ han  sampel  dalam  desain  ini  adalah  setiap  elemen  dalam  populasi  mempunyai  kesem‐ patan yang sama untuk dipilih. pengambilan  sampel dapat dilakukan dengan mempergu‐ nakan daftar random, atau  juga bisa dengan  cara  lain.  dalam  hal  ini  yang  terpenting  adalah  prinsip  bahwa  seluruh  elemen  memperoleh  kesempatan  yang  sama  untuk  dipilih menjadi sampel (kuncoro, 2003: 112).  tempat  pengambilan  sampel  penelitian  ini  di  kawasan  pasar  klithikan  pakuncen  yogyakarta.  sampel  penelitian  ini  sebanyak  100 responden merupakan sejumlah yang le‐ bih  besar  dari  persyaratan  minimal  jumlah  sampel  sebanyak  30  responden.  menurut  guilford (1987) dalam supranto (1997) semakin  besar  sampel  (semakin  besar  nilai  n=  banyaknya  sampel)  akan  memberikan  hasil  yang akurat. oleh karena itu dalam peneliti‐ an  ini  penulis  menggunakan  sampel  seba‐ nyak  100  responden  agar  cenderung  lebih  representatif.  jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 110 ‐ 119 114  alat  ukur  penelitian  ini  menggunakan  kuesioner  yang  berisi  tentang  pengaruh  kualitas produk, harga dan pelayanan terha‐ dap  minat beli  masyarakat  terhadap  barang  bekas.  dalam  penelitian  ini  menggunakan  skala likert. skala likert berisi setuju dan tidak  setuju.  skala  likert  ini  digunakan  untuk  mengukur sikap, pendapat, dan persepsi se‐ seorang  atau  sekelompok  orang  tentang  fenomena  sosial.  dimana  masing‐masing  variabel  dirinci  kedalam  beberapa  perta‐ nyaan  dengan  pilihan  alternatif  jawaban  berupa sangat setuju (skor 4) sampai dengan  sangat tidak setuju (skor 1).  uji hipotesis dan analisis data  alat analisis yang digunakan adalah regresi  linier berganda. analisis  ini digunakan un‐ tuk  mengetahui  sejauh  mana  pengaruh  se‐ benarnya  dari  variabel  x  (harga,  kualitas  produk, dan pelayanan) terhadap variabel y  (minat beli masyarakat).  regresi linier berganda  uji  ini  dilakukan  untuk  menguji  pengaruh  antara kepuasan dengan variabel yang mem‐ pengaruhi  minat  beli.  model  analisis  data  disajikan sebagai berikut:  y = a + b1 x1 + b2 x2 + b3 x3  keterangan; y adalah minat beli, a adalah nilai  konstanta,  b  adalah  koefisien  regresi,  x1  adalah kualitas produk, x2 adalah harga, x3  adalah pelayanan  uji asumsi klasik  uji  multikolinearitas.  uji  multikolinearitas  dilakukan  untuk  menguji  apakah  pada  model  regresi  ditemukan  adanya  korelasi  antar  variabel  indenpenden.  jika  korelasi,  berarti  terdapat  masalah  multikolinearitas.  model  regresi  yang  baik  seharusnya  tidak  terjadi  di  antara  variabel  multikolinearitas  yaitu  1)  nilai  r2  yang  dihasilkan  sangat  tinggi, tapi tingkat signifikansi variabel bebas  berdasarkan  uji  t   statistik  sangat  kecil  atau  bahkan  tidak  ada  variabel  bebas  yang  signifikan;  dan  2)  menggunakan  korelasi  parsial,  korelasi  antarvariabel  indenpenden  harus  lemah  (di  bawah  0,5).  jika  korelasi  melebihinya maka terjadi problem multikoli‐ nearitas sehingga perlu diatasi.  uji  heteroskedastisitas.  uji  heteroske‐ dastisitas  dilakukan  untuk  menguji  apakah  pada  model  regresi  terjadi  ketidaksamaan  varians dari satu pengamatan ke pengamatan  lain. heteroskedastisitas artinya varians vari‐ abel dalam model tidak sama (konstan). kon‐ sekuensi adalah penaksiran (estimator) yang  diperoleh  tidak  efisien,  baik  dalam  sampel  kecil maupun besar. akibat dari adanya he‐ teroskedastisitas  pada  hasil  regresi,  adalah  sebagai  berikut:  varians  tak  lagi  minimum;  pengujian  dari  koefisien  regresi  menjadi  kurang kuat; koefisien penaksir menjadi bias;  dan kesimpulan yang diambil menjadi salah.  pengujian hipotesis  uji  t   statistik.  uji  ini  dilakukan  untuk  mengetahui seberapa  jauh signifikan penga‐ ruh  variabel  independen  (harga,  kualitas  produk,  dan  pelayanan)  secara  individual  pada variabel dependen (minat beli). pengu‐ jian  hipotesis  dilakukan  dengan  memban‐ dingkan nilai probabilitasnya (p) dengan nilai  α yang telah ditetapkan dalam penelitian ini  yaitu sebesar 0,05 atau 5 persen.  uji f. uji f dilakukan untuk mengetahui  seberapa  jauh variabel  independen (kualitas,  harga, dan pelayanan) secara simultan mem‐ punyai pengaruh yang sama terhadap varia‐ bel  dependen  (minat  beli).  secara  simultan  hipotesis dilakukan dengan membandingkan  nilai probabilitas (p) dengan nilai α yang telah  masihkah barang bekas ... (noor anisa dan ahmad ma’ruf)  115 ditetapkan dalam penelitian ini yaitu sebesar  0,05. uji f digunakan untuk menguji hipote‐ sis  keempat.  pengujian  dilakukan  dengan  program bantuan spss 11.00.    uji koefisien   r   square (r 2 ). uji koe‐ fisien determinasi bertujuan untuk mengeta‐ hui seberapa jauh kemampuan variabel inde‐ penden (harga, kualitas produk, dan pelaya‐ nan) dalam menjelaskan variasi variabel de‐ penden  (minat  beli).  nilai  r  square  (r2)  menunjukkan  kemampuan  variasi  variabel‐ variabel  independen  dalam  menjelaskan  variasi  dependen.  untuk  lebih  mempermu‐ dah  proses  perhitungan  dan  hasil  analisis  data,  maka  semua  proses  perhitungan  akan  dilakukan dengan bantuan statistical software  spss 11.00.  hasil dan pembahasan  analisis  regresi  ini  bertujuan  untuk  menge‐ tahui  besarnya  pengaruh  variabel  satu  atau  lebih  variabel  dengan  metode  yang  diguna‐ kan  adalah  metode  kuadrat  terkecil  biasa.  metode ini memberikan alat yang diperlukan  untuk  penaksiran  atau  pengujian  hipotesis  regresi linear. sebelum sebuah data dianalisis  guna  untuk  pengambilan  keputusan,  maka  dilakukan uji kevalidan data untuk pengam‐ bilan keputusan yang lebih valid dan terper‐ caya. untuk pengujian tersebut digunakan uji  asumsi klasik yang meliputi multikolinearitas  dan heteroskedastisitas. kemudian dilakukan  uji  statistik,  yang  meliputi  pengujian  koefi‐ sien  regresi  secara  partial  (individu)  yaitu  dengan  menggunakan  uji  t  (test),  pengujian  secara serempak (f‐test) dan pengujian koefi‐ sien determinasi (r 2 ).  uji asumsi klasik  uji  multikolinearitas.  pengujian  multikoli‐ nearitas dilakukan dengan melihat nilai r 2 ,  f‐hitung  serta  t‐hitung  yang  akan  mendu‐ kung  uji  toleransi  (tol)  dan  faktor  inflasi  varians  (vif)  dengan  hipotesis  ho:  vif≤10  atau tol=1 atau mendekati 1, maka artinya  tidak  terdapat  multikolinearitas  dan  ho:  vif≥10 atau tol≠1 atau mendekati 0, maka  artinya  terdapat  multikolinearitas.  berikut  disajikan  hasil  ringkasan  untuk  uji  multiko‐ linearitas:  kesimpulan  dari  tabel  1  adalah  semua  variabel  bebas  tidak  terjadi  gejala  multiko‐ linearitas karena vif  lebih kecil dari 10 dan  nilai tol mendekati 1.  uji heteroskedastisitas  hasil pengujian dengan tingkat α = 0,05 dan  nilai df = 100‐1‐3 = 96 diperoleh nilai ttabel sebe‐ sar 1,984. dengan demikian berdasarkan hasil  penghitungan,  secara  keseluruhan  ditabu‐ lasikan hasil pengujiannya dalam tabel 2.  dari hasil penghitungan, dapat dinyata‐ kan  model  regresi  di  muka  masing‐masing  variabel  tidak signifikan dan  thitung<ttabel, arti‐ nya  homoskedastisitas  atau  tidak  terdapat  gejala heteroskedastisitas.  tabel 1. ringkasan hasil uji multikolinearitas variabel terikat  variabel bebas  tol  vif  keterangan  x1  0,164  5,101  tidak ada multikolinearitas  x2  0,196  5,096  tidak ada multikolinearitas y  x3  0,192  5,199  tidak ada multikolinearitas  sumber: data primer diolah.  jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 110 ‐ 119 116  regresi linear berganda     setelah dilakukan uji asumsi klasik sekarang  akan  disajikan  hasil  uji  statistik  yang  akan  menguraikan  satu  persatu  tentang  seberapa  besar  elastisitas  atau  pengaruh  masing‐ masing variabel penjelas  terhadap pendapa‐ tan.   berdasarkan tabel 3   maka dapat dibuat  persamaan regresi:   y=‐0,165+0,425x1+0,562x2+0,320x3  nilai  konstanta  (a)  sebesar  ‐0,165  dapat  diartikan  bahwa,  apabila  kualitas  produk,  harga,  dan  pelayanan  konstant  atau  tidak  mengalami  perubahan/cateris  paribus,  maka  minat beli akan sebesar 0,684 persen (anti log  ‐0,165).  nilai koefisien (b1) sebesar 0,425 menun‐ jukan  bahwa,  apabila  kualitas  produk  (x1)  berubah 1 persen, maka minat beli (y) akan  mengalami  perubahan  sebesar  2,66  persen  dengan asumsi variabel yang lain harga (x2),  dan  pelayanan  (x3)  konstan  atau  tidak  me‐ ngalami  perubahan.  pada  penelitian  ini  kualitas produk (x1) bernilai (bertanda) posi‐ tif, ini menunjukkkan bahwa kualitas produk  (x1)  mempunyai  pengaruh  positif  terhadap  minat beli (y). hal ini  berarti uji tanda sesuai  dengan  hipotesis  yang  digunakan  dalam  penelitian.  nilai koefisien (b2) sebesar 0,562 menun‐ jukkan  bahwa  variabel  harga  (x2)  memberi  pengaruh  yang  positif  terhadap  minat  beli  (y), koefisien harga bernilai (bertanda) positif  berarti  harga  mempunyai  pengaruh  positif  terhadap minat beli.  nilai koefisien (b3) sebesar 0,320. hal ini  menunjukkan  bahwa  variabel  pelayanan  (x3),  memberi  pengaruh  yang  positif  terha‐ tabel 2. ringkasan hasil uji heteroskedastisitas  variabel  thitung  ttabel  keterangan  x1  ‐0,427  1,984  non heteroskedastisitas  x2  0,895  1,984  non heteroskedastisitas  x3  ‐1,037  1,984  non heteroskedastisitas    sumber: lampiran, data diolah.    tabel 3. output regresi linear berganda  unstandardized  coefficients model  b  std. error  t  sig.  f  sig.  r2  constant  x1  x2  x3  ‐0,165  0,425  0,562  0,320  0,059  0,107  0,103  0,087  ‐2,798 3,957  5,463  3,667  0,006 0,000 0,000 0,000  283,541  0,000  0,899  sumber: data primer diolah.    signifikansi pada α = 1%  masihkah barang bekas ... (noor anisa dan ahmad ma’ruf)  117 dap  minat  beli  dan  apabila  pelayanan  (x3)  berubah 1 persen maka minat beli mengalami  perubahan sebesar 2,09 persen, dengan asum‐ si variabel yang lain (kualitas produk(x1) dan  harga  (x2))  konstan.  koefisien  pelayanan  bernilai positif berarti uji tanda sesuai dengan  hipotesis  yang  digunakan  dalam  penelitian  ini.   pengujian signifikansi variabel secara  individu  persamaan  regresi  yang  diperoleh  adalah  persamaan regresi sampel, maka perlu dila‐ kukan  pengujian  secara  parsial,  agar  suatu  pernyataan  tentang  keadaan  populasi  dapat  diandalkan atau dapat dipertanggungjawab‐ kan.  pengujian    terhadap  variabel  kualitas  produk (x1). pengujian ini dilakukan dengan  pengujian  dua  sisi  dengan  derajat  keperca‐ yaan 1 persen maka diperoleh t(0,10 α; n‐k‐1)=t  (0,10;  100‐3‐1)  dan  diperoleh  ttabel  sebesar  2,626.  kriteria  hasil  analisis  menunjukkan  bahwa  thitung(3,957)>ttabel(2,626) dengan tingkat signifi‐ kansi  99  persen,  maka  dapat  disimpulkan  bahwa ho ditolak dan ha diterima. ini ber‐ arti menerima hipotesis bahwa kualitas pro‐ duk  (x1)  mempunyai  pengaruh  yang  nyata  atau signifikan terhadap minat beli (y).  pengujian  terhadap  variabel  harga  (x2). pengujian ini dilakukan dengan pengu‐ jian  dua  sisi  dengan  derajat  kepercayaan  1  persen maka diperoleh  t(0,10  α;  n‐k‐1)=t(0,10;  100‐3‐1)  dan diperoleh ttabel sebesar 2,626. kriteria ha‐ sil  analisis  menunjukkan  bahwa  thitung  (5,463)>ttabel(2,626) dengan tingkat signifikansi  99  persen,  maka  dapat  disimpulkan  bahwa  ho ditolak dan ha diterima. ini berarti mene‐ rima hipotesis bahwa harga (x2) mempunyai  pengaruh  yang  nyata  atau  signifikan  terha‐ dap minat beli (y).  pengujian terhadap variabel pelayanan  (x3). untuk uji ini dilakukan  pengujian dua  sisi  dengan  derajat  kepercayaan  1  persen  maka  diperoleh  t(0,1  α;  n‐k‐1)=t(0,1;  100‐3‐1)  dan  diperoleh ttabel sebesar 2,626. berdasarkan per‐ hitungan  maka  diperoleh  thitung(3,667)>ttabel  (2,626) dengan tingkat signifikansi 99 persen,  maka  dapat  disimpulkan  bahwa  ho  ditolak  dan ha diterima, maka dapat ditarik kesim‐ pulan  bahwa  pelayanan  (x3)  mempunyai  pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap minat beli  (y).  uji koefisien regresi secara serempak  (uji‐f).  pengujian  ini  digunakan  untuk  me‐ ngetahui keandalan persamaan regresi yang  diperoleh,  dalam  hal  ini  regresi  diuji  secara  statistik  apakah  dapat  diandalkan  sebagai  model  penjelas  bagi  fenomena  yang  terjadi  dalam  variabel  independen.  hasil  perhitu‐ ngan diperoleh fhitung sebesar 283,541, dengan  taraf signifikan 99 persen (α=1%) dan derajat  kebebasan  (df=3,  100‐3‐1),  serta  pengujian  satu  sisi,  maka  diperoleh  ftabel  sebesar  26,2.  berdasarkan kurva diatas dapat disimpulkan  bahwa  nilai  fhitung(283,541)>ftabel  (26,2),  yang  berarti  bahwa  ho  ditolak  dan  ha  diterima.  hal  ini menunjukkan bahwa semua variabel  bebas kualitas produk  (x1), harga  (x2), dan  pelayanan (x3) secara serempak mempunyai  pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap minat beli  (y).  uji determinasi (r 2 ). determinasi (r 2 )  pada  intinya  mengukur  seberapa  jauh  ke‐ mampuan model dalam menerangkan variasi  variabel  dependen.  nilai  koefisien  determi‐ nasi  adalah  ntara  nol  sampai  satu.  nilai  r  square  (r 2 )  menunjukkan  kemampuan  va‐ riasi  variabel‐variabel  independen  dalam  menjelaskan  variasi  dependen.  berdasarkan  tampilan  output  spss  model  summary  be‐ sarnya   r 2  adalah 0,899, hal  ini berarti 89,9   persen  variasi  minat  beli  dapat  dijelaskan  oleh variasi dari ketiga variabel independen,  yaitu  kualitas  produk  (x1),  harga  (x2),  dan  jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 110 ‐ 119 118  pelayanan (x3), sedangkan sisanya 10,1 per‐ sen  dipengaruhi  oleh  variabel  lain  di  luar  model penelitian.  kesimpulan  berdasarkan hasil analisis minat beli masya‐ rakat  terhadap  barang  bekas  dipasar  klithi‐ kan  pakuncen  dapat  diambil  kesimpulan  bahwa:  (1)  kualitas  produk  memberikan  pengaruh  positif (3,957) dan signifikan (0,000) terhadap  minat beli masyarakat terhadap barang bekas  di pasar klithikan pakuncen. harga membe‐ rikan pengaruh positif (5,463) dan signifikan  (0,000) terhadap minat beli masyarakat terha‐ dap barang bekas di pasar klithikan pakun‐ cen,  dan  pelayanan  memberikan  pengaruh  positif  dan  signifikan  terhadap  minat  beli  masyarakat  terhadap  barang  bekas  dipasar  klithikan pakuncen.   (2) kualitas produk, harga, pelayanan mem‐ berikan  pengaruh  positif  dan  signifikan  ter‐ hadap  minat  beli  masyarakat  terhadap  ba‐ rang  bekas  di  pasar  klithikan  pakuncen.  hipotesis  yang  menyatakan  bahwa  kualitas  produk,  harga,  dan  pelayanan  memberikan  pengaruh  positif  dan  signifikan  terhadap  minat  beli  terhadap  barang  bekas  di  pasar  klithikan  pakuncen  sudah  terbukti.  hal  tersebut  juga  sesuai  dengan  teori  “prinsip‐ prinsip pemasaran”, bahwa kualitas produk,  harga, dan pelayanan berkaitan erat terhadap  minat  beli  masyarakat  terhadap  suatu  produk.  dari  hasil  pembahasan,  serta  beberapa  simpulan  di  atas,  maka  dapat  dirumuskan  saran bahwa berdasarkan dari hasil penghi‐ tungan regresi berganda pada penelitian  ini  diperoleh data yang signifikan, baik itu dili‐ hat dari kualitas produk, harga, maupun pe‐ layanan. hal  ini perlu ditingkatkan  lagi dan  menjadi perhatian utama bagi para pedagang  maupun  pengelola  pasar  dalam  meningkat‐ kan  kinerjanya.  untuk  peneliti  selanjutnya  perlu  menambahkan  lagi  jumlah  respoden  maupun  variabel  yang  digunakan  dalam  penelitian  berikutnya,  karena  hal  tersebut  dapat  membantu  para  pedagang  maupun  pengelola di pasar klithikan pakuncen seba‐ gai bahan pertimbangan dalam pengambilan  keputusan.  daftar pustaka badan pusat statistik, (2007), data kecamatan  wirobrajan tahun 2007, yogyakarta: bps.  badan pusat statistik, (2008), kota yogyakarta  dalam  angka,  tahun  2008,  yogyakarta:  bps.   dethan, r.f., susilo, y.s. (2007), “profil peda‐ gang  klithikan”,  modus,  volume  19,  halaman 35.  ghozali, imam, (2005), aplikasi analisis multi‐ variate  dengan  menggunakan  program  spss,  semarang: badan  penerbit  uni‐ versitas diponegoro. hermanto; saptutyningsih, e, (2002), electro‐ nic data processing (edp) spss 10.0 &  eviews 3.0, yogyakarta: upfe‐umy.  husien u, 2002, riset pemasaran dan perilaku  konsumen,  edisi  1,  cetakan  2,  jakarta:  pt gramedia pustaka utama.   joesron,  t.  s.,  fathorrozi,  m.,  (2003),  teori  ekonomi mikro, cetakan pertama, jakar‐ ta: penerbit salemba empat.   kotler, p., armstrong, g., (2001), prinsip‐prin‐ sip pemasaran, edisi kedelapan, cetakan  pertama, jakarta: penerbit erlangga.   kuncoro mudrajat, 2003, metode riset untuk  bisnis  dan  ekonomi,  jakarta:  penerbit  erlangga.  masihkah barang bekas ... (noor anisa dan ahmad ma’ruf)  119 mudayen, y. m. v., 2004, “upaya peningka‐ tan kualitas sdm sektor pariwisata in‐ donesia dalam menghadapi era perda‐ gangan bebas”, antisipasi, volume 8, no  2, halaman 573.  narbuko, c., achmadi, h. a., 2007, metodo‐ logi  penelitian,  cetakan  kedelapan,  ja‐ karta: penerbit bumi aksara.  rangkuti  f,  2003,  measuring  customer  satis‐ faction,  cetakan  kedua,  jakarta:  pt.  gramedia.  soelistyo, 1982, pengantar ekonometri 1, ceta‐ kan pertama, yogyakarta: bpfe‐ugm.  sugito, 2007, “peminat pasar klithikan tetap  setia”, litbang kompas, november.  sukirno,  s.,  2005,  pengantar  teori  ekonomi  mikro,  edisi  ketiga,  jakarta:  pt.  raja  gravindo persada.  sutisna,  2002,  perilaku  konsumen  dan  komu‐ nikasi  pemasaran,  cetakan  kedua,  ban‐ dung: pt. remaja rosdakarya.    microsoft word 01-nano jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 11, nomor 1, april 2010, hlm.1-19   pengembangan potensi unggulan sektor pertanian nano prawoto fakultas ekonomi universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta jalan lingkar selatan, tamantirto, kasihan, bantul, yogyakarta, indonesia, telepon:+62-274-387656 e-mail: nanoprawoto@yahoo.com abstract: in regional autonomy era, regional government obligated plan and control condition macroeconomics based on the condition of objective. entire sectors of the economy is expected to develop and encourage other economic sectors. development planners should maintain the leadingsectors so that the economy can be developed area. in addition, it is important to approach the non leading sector so that it becomes sub system in developing a leading sector. this research uses the location quotient analysis, analysis of the shift share, and a swot analysis to find out the leading subsector of agricultural sector. the result showed that the economy karimun having six sub-sectors in agriculture. the sub-sectors were sub sectors of the food crops, orchards, vegetables, fruits, aquaculture, and fisheries. keywords: leading sector, agriculture sector, location quotient, shift share analysis, swot abstrak: dalam era otonomi daerah, pemerintah daerah berkewajiban merencanakan dan mengontrol kondisi makroekonomi berdasarkan kondisi obyektif. seluruh sektor ekonomi diharapkan dapat berkembang dan mendorong sektor ekonomi lainnya. perencana pembangunan harus mempertahankan sektor unggulan sehingga perekonomian daerah dapat dikembangkan. selain itu, penting untuk mendekati sektor bukan unggulan sehingga menjadi sub sistem dalam mengembangkan sektor unggulan. penelitian ini menggunakan analisis location quotient, analisis shift share, dan analisis swot untuk mengetahui subsektor yang unggulan di sektor pertanian. hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa perekonomian karimun memiliki enam subsektor di bidang pertanian. subsektor tersebut adalah tanaman pangan, perkebunan rakyat, sayuran, buah-buahan, budidaya perikanan, dan penangkapan ikan. kata kunci: sektor unggulan, sektor pertanian, location quotient, analisis shift share, swot pendahuluan pada era otonomi daerah saat sekarang, daerah diberi kewenangan dan peluang yang luas bagi pengembangan potensi ekonomi, sosial, politik dan budaya. salah satu bentuk peluang itu adalah perlunya penajaman orientasi pembangunan yang berbasis pada potensi daerah. masing-masing daerah didorong tidak saja untuk lebih mampu mengambil peran dan prakarsa dalam perencanaan pembangunan, tetapi juga untuk lebih jeli mengeksplorasi dan mengeksploitasi sumber daya yang bertujuan untuk mensejahterakan rakyat setempat. berdasarkan pada kemampuan itu maka pemerintah daerah benar-benar dapat menjadi pelaku utama pembangunan di daerahnya, sedangkan pemerintah pusat bertindak sebagai fasilitator dan koordinator pembangunan nasional. pelaksanaannya lebih mudah dilakukan dengan menyusun suatu rencana dan program aksi pengembangan ekonomi kerakyatan berbasis sektor unggulan di kabupaten karimun. rencana dan aksi ini kelak menjadi acuan untuk mengalokasikan penggunaan sumberdaya dan dana. peran pemerintah daerah kabupaten dalam penyusunan kebijakan dan programprogram pembangunan yang sesuai dengan kebutuhan daerah dan peran dunia usaha untuk memacu aktivitas ekonomi produktif dengan sasaran peningkatan pendapatan, perluasan kesempatan kerja, diversifikasi kegiatan ekonomi, peningkatan investasi, dan lain-lain, jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 11, nomor 1, april 2010: 1-19 2 perlu dioptimalkan melalui ketersediaan informasi yang akurat. hal itulah yang menjadi salah satu pertimbangan penting bagi pemerintah. khususnya bagi pemerintah kabupaten karimun dalam mengembangkan daerahnya. ketersediaan informasi tersebut memiliki manfaat ganda. pertama, atas dasar rencana dan program aksi tersebut maka pemerintah setempat dapat menyusun kebijakan yang lebih tepat dan skala prioritas program-program pembangunan daerah. kedua, atas dasar yang sama pemerintah memiliki gambaran yang akurat tentang potensi, produk unggulan dan aktivitas ekonomi, termasuk bisnis dan investasi, sehingga dapat diketahui lebih jelas sumber-sumber pendapatan daerah (pajak, retribusi, dan lain-lain) dan rencana alokasinya. ketiga, gambaran itu dapat memudahkan investor dari luar daerah dan luar negeri untuk melakukan perencanaan bisnis dan investasi di daerah ini. pemetaan potensi investasi berdasarkan sektor-sektor ekonomi unggulan (competitive scale) menjadi semakin penting karena 3 (tiga) alasan berikut ini. pertama, pemerintah memiliki basis data sebagai bahan promosi untuk menarik investor luar daerah serta untuk melakukan negosiasi dengan pemerintah pusat dalam alokasi pembiayaan program-program pembangunan yang diprioritaskan daerah. kedua, pemerintah dapat mempertajam skala prioritas program pembangunan dan investasi yang lebih prospektif. ketiga, pemerintah juga dapat menyusun kebijakan-kebijakan yang lebih pragmatis untuk mengeliminir kendalakendala struktural, institusional, dan legal di bidang bisnis dan investasi. berdasarkan kondisi potensi yang ada di daerah kabupaten karimun mempunyai potensi sumber daya yang cukup memadai sebagai basis keunggulan daerah antara lain berupa; (a) lahan pertanian yang luas, (b) jaringan industri, (c) jaringan perdagangan, (d) perairan yang luas untuk perikanan, (e) dan juga sumber daya manusia. demikian juga potensi pasar yang menjanjikan baik pasar domestik daerah kabupaten atau provinsi lain dan pasar luar negeri yang berdekatan dengan negara singapura yang notabene mempunyai ikatan perdagangan bebas dengan batam. melihat potensi tersebut diharapkan dapat dimanfaatkan seoptimal mungkin oleh daerah, sehingga tujuan dan sasaran pembangunan dapat tercapai, yaitu optimalisasi alokasi sumber daya yang ada, kesejahteraan masyarakat dan pelestarian lingkungan hidup. secara umum studi ini bertujuan untuk pengembangan sektor pertanian yang berbasis pada sektor dan subsektor unggulan. sedangkan tujuannya secara khusus adalah (1) menentukan sektor unggulan, andalan, dan prospektif yang dimiliki daerah; (2) menyusun konsep dan strategi pengembangan ekonomi terutama sektor pertanian; (3) menyusun rencana dan program aksi pengembangan ekonomi pada sektor pertanian yang berbasis sektor unggulan. metode penelitian analisis location quotient (lq) location quotient (lq) merupakan alat analisis untuk mengetahui ada tidaknya spesialisasi suatu wilayah untuk sektor (industri) tertentu. pemanfaatan analisis lq dimaksudkan untuk melihat sektor yang menjadi sektor basis dan sektor bukan basis, sehingga daerah melihat keunggulan sektor yang dapat dijual dan dikembangkan untuk mendorong perekonomian di daerah atau kabupaten. lq = (eij/ej)/(ein/en) dimana: eij adalah kesempatan kerja di sektor i di wilayah j; ej adalah kesempatan kerja di wilayah j; ein adalah kesempatan kerja di sektor i di negara n; en adalah kesempatan kerja di negara n. dari rumus tersebut didapatkan hasil perhitungan dengan klasifikasi sebagai berikut: (1) jika nilai lq>1, maka wilayah j untuk sektor i ada spesialisasi (tingkat spesialisasi wilayah> tingkat spesialisasi nasional); (2) jika nilai lq= 1, maka wilayah j>untuk sektor i ada spesialisasi (tingkat spesialisasi wilayah=tingkat spesialisasi nasional); dan (3) jika nilai lq<1, maka wilayah j untuk sektor i tidak ada spesialisasi (tingkat spesialisasi wilayah<tingkat nasional). metode ini merupakan hitungan perbandingan relatif sumbangan nilai tambah sebuah sektor di suatu daerah (kabupaten/kota) pengembangan potensi unggulan sektor pertanian (nano prawoto) 3 terhadap sumbangan nilai tambah sektor yang bersangkutan dalam skala provinsi atau nasional sehingga dapat diketahui komoditi yang prospek dan tidak. satuan yang digunakan sebagai ukuran untuk menghasilkan koefisien lq, dapat menggunakan satuan jumlah tenaga kerja, atau hasil produksi, atau satuan lainnya yang dapat digunakan sebagai kriteria. analisis swot suatu cara untuk mengidentifikasi berbagai faktor secara sistematis dalam rangka merumuskan berbagai strategi pengembangan ekonomi kerakyatan berbasis sektor unggulan. analisis ini didasarkan pada logika dapat memaksimalkan kekuatan (strength) dan peluang (opportunities), namun secara bersamaan dapat meminimalkan kelemahan (weaknesses) dan ancaman (threats). analisis swot mempertimbangkan faktor lingkungan internal strengths dan weaknesses serta lingkungan eksternal oportunities dan threats yang dihadapi perusahaan/institusi/ lembaga. analisis swot membandingkan antara faktor eksternal peluang (opportunities) dan ancaman dengan faktor internal kekuatan dan kelemahan sehingga dari analisis tersebut dapat diambil suatu keputusan strategik, lihat tabel 1. hasil dan pembahasan analisis basis ekonomi (location quotient) sektor dan subsektor basis sektor pertanian. perhitungan nilai basis (dinamic lq dan static lq) pada tabel 2. sektor pertanian merupakan sektor basis dengan predikat unggul untuk tiga tahun terakhir. selanjutnya jika kita analisis pada subsektor untuk sektor basis yang unggulan yaitu sektor pertanian, ternyata subsektor yang unggul adalah subsektor tanaman bahan makanan, tanaman perkebunan, dan perikanan. sedangkan subsektor peternakan dan kehutanan bukan merupakan subsektor unggulan dan cenderung non basis. khusus sektor perikanan di provinsi kepulauan riau, ternyata memang karimun merupakan daerah yang relatif dominan untuk perikanannya selain daerah lainnya. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa pengembangan perikanan merupakan sebuah program keharusan daerah, karena selain sebagai subsektor maju, juga sektor basis yang unggul dapat menopang perekonomian daerah yang berbasis kerakyatan. subsektor basis komoditas perkebunan. subsektor basis pada tanaman perkebunan ada pada beberapa komoditas, seperti karet merupakan tanaman basis dengan klasifikasi unggul untuk tahun 2006 dan prospektif untuk tahun 2007. kemudian tanaman kelapa, cengkeh, lada, tabel 1. diagram matrik swot internal factor evaluation (ife) / eksternal factor evaluation (efe) strengths (s) weaknesses (w) opportunities (o) strategi so menciptakan strategi yang menggunakan kekuatan untuk memanfaatkan peluang. digunakan jika perusahaan berada pada kuadran i strategi wo menciptakan strategi yang meminimalkan kelemahan untuk memanfaatkan peluang. digunakan jika perusahaan berada pada kuadran iii trheats (t) strategi st menciptakan strategi yang menggunakan kekuatan untuk mengatasi ancaman. digunakan jika perusahaan berada pada kuadran ii strategi wt menciptakan strategi yang meminimalkan kelemahan dan menghindari ancaman. digunakan jika perusahaan berada pada kuadran iv jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 11, nomor 1, april 2010: 1-19 4 dan gambir merupakan tanaman basis dengan kecenderungan prospektif dengan variasi tahun yang berbeda. dengan demikian daerah kabupaten karimun sebenarnya mempunyai subsektor basis yang unggul dan prospektif pada beberapa tanaman seperti tersebut di atas, sehingga kedepan tanaman tersebut perlu dikembangkan untuk mendukung pengembangan sektor pertanian. dalam mendukung pengembangan tanaman karet, pemerintah daerah sebenarnya telah mengambil kebijakan dengan program penanaman pohon karet sejuta batang oleh dinas pertanian dan kehutanan. program ini dinilai tepat dalam mengangkat ekonomi masyarakat daerah, lihat tabel 3. subsektor basis komoditas bahan makanan. berdasarkan perhitungan lq yang ada ternyata tanaman padi kurang berperan dalam perekonomian di karimun karena cenderung masih belum merupakan komoditas basis, hanya tahun 2006 menjadi produk prospektif dan kembali non basis untuk tahun 2007. kemudian untuk komoditas jagung merupakan komoditas yang prospektif dengan nilai slq lebih besar dari satu. untuk produk ubi kayu, ubi jalar, dan kacang tanah berkecenderungan tabel 2. perhitungan nilai lq pada sektor dan subsektor pdrb di kabupaten karimun tahun 2005–2007 lapangan usaha 2005 2006 2007 dlq slq basis dlq slq basis dlq slq basis pertanian, peternakan,kehutanan dan perikanan 1,41 6,74 u 1,24 6,82 u 1,23 6,90 u a. tanaman bahan makanan 0,94 5,65 u 1,09 5,68 u 1,70 5,80 u b. tanaman perkebunan 1,20 5,92 u 2,16 6,12 u 1,10 6,14 u c. peternakan dan hasil-hasilnya 1,30 0,94 a 0,99 0,94 nb 1,32 0,95 a d. kehutanan 0,66 1,05 p 0,22 0,97 nb 0,60 0,95 nb e. perikanan 1,26 8,23 u 1,21 8,32 u 1,12 8,38 u keterangan: *) perhitungan tahun 2007 dengan data pdrb karimun dan kepri sementara; u=unggulan, apabila memiliki nilai slq dan dlq lebih dari 1 (satu); a=andalan, apabila memiliki nilai dlq lebih dari 1 (satu); p = prospektif, apabila memiliki nilai slq lebih dari 1 (satu); nb=non basis, apabila memiliki nilai slq dan dlq kurang dari 1 (satu) sumber: karimun dalam angka 2007, kepri dalam angka 2006, diolah tabel 3. perhitungan nilai lq pada subsektor perkebunan kabupaten karimun tahun 2005–2007 sub sektor 2005 2006 2007 dlq slq basis dlq slq basis dlq slq basis karet -0,12 0,74 nb 2,27 2,96 u 0,53 1,75 p coklat 0,00 nb 0,00 0,00 nb 0,00 0,00 nb kelapa 0,17 1,05 p 0,28 1,04 p 0,51 0,36 nb cengkeh -0,08 5287,44 p 0,00 0,00 nb -149,60 30,87 p kopi 0,10 0,00 nb 0,00 0,27 nb 0,00 0,03 nb lada -0,18 1394,83 p 0,09 0,13 nb -447,03 3,68 p gambir 0,49 32,48 p -0,05 0,10 nb -3,41 26,61 p total 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 keterangan: *) perhitungan tahun 2007 dengan data pdrb karimun dan kepri sementara; u=unggulan, apabila memiliki nilai slq dan dlq lebih dari 1 (satu); a=andalan, apabila memiliki nilai dlq lebih dari 1 (satu); p=prospektif, apabila memiliki nilai slq lebih dari 1 (satu); nb=non basis, apabila memiliki nilai slq dan dlq kurang dari 1 (satu) sumber: karimun dalam angka 2007, kepri dalam angka 2006, diolah pengembangan potensi unggulan sektor pertanian (nano prawoto) 5 menjadi subsektor basis unggulan. hasil olah data tersebut jika dikomparasi pada lahan pertanian dan perkebunan memang struktur tanahnya kebanyakan lebih cocok untuk lahan pertanian palawija. secara umum dari semua komoditas tersebut jagung adalah komoditas yang mempunyai kestabilan produksinya dan merupakan produk yang prospektif untuk dikembangkan, dan kebutuhan akan bahan baku jagung untuk kepentingan industri pengolahan makanan ringan diperkirakan meningkat sejalan dengan majunya industrialisasi di kepulauan riau, batam, dan negara tetangga singapura dan malaysia, lihat tabel 4. subsektor basis komoditas buah-buahan. berdasarkan hasil perhitungan pada nilai lq, ternyata hanya terdapat dua produk yang merupakan basis subsektor buah-buahan yang prospektif dan cenderung unggulan daerah yaitu tanaman rambutan dan durian, lihat tabel 5. sebenarnya nangka juga merupakan tanaman yang prospektif pada tahun sebelum 2007, hanya akhirnya menjadi tanaman yang bukan basis karena produksi mengalami penurunan yang tajam. kemudian pengembangan buah nenas sebenarnya dilihat dari lahan tanah tabel 4. perhitungan nilai lq pada subsektor tanaman pangan kabupaten karimun tahun 2005 – 2007 subsektor 2005 2006 2007 dlq slq basis dlq slq basis dlq slq basis padi 0,00 0,70 nb 0,00 4,59 p -0,11 0,00 nb jagung 0,00 1,72 p 0,00 6,13 p 0,00 6,10 p ubi kayu -0,82 0,87 nb 1,06 0,47 a 1,36 2,82 u ubi jalar 171,07 0,37 a 0,25 0,57 nb 1,23 4,57 u talas 0,00 0,00 nb 0,00 63,41 p 0,00 0,00 nb kacang tanah 3,38 2,86 u 2,77 0,00 a 0,00 24,75 p total 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 keterangan: *) perhitungan tahun 2007 dengan data pdrb karimun dan kepri sementara; u = unggulan, apabila memiliki nilai slq dan dlq lebih dari 1 (satu); a = andalan, apabila memiliki nilai dlq lebih dari 1 (satu); p = prospektif, apabila memiliki nilai slq lebih dari 1 (satu); nb = non basis, apabila memiliki nilai slq dan dlq kurang dari 1 (satu) sumber: karimun dalam angka 2007, kepri dalam angka 2006, diolah tabel 5. perhitungan nilai lq pada subsektor buah-buahan di kabupaten karimun tahun 2005–2007 sub sektor 2005 2006 2007 dlq slq basis dlq slq basis dlq slq basis mangga (89,08) nb 0,81 nb 0,52 0,41 nb rambutan 4,10 0,40 a (711,76) 2,86 p 0,31 1,08 p nangka 399,29 0,66 a (54,64) 1,33 p (6,96) nb pepaya (29,11) nb nb 0,35 nb pisang 0,23 nb (77,48) 0,52 nb 0,95 0,38 nb nenas 0,56 nb 27,76 0,22 a (8,25) 0,75 nb jeruk (247,23) 0,11 nb (186,76) nb nb sukun (27,22) nb nb nb manggis (404,20) nb 53,49 p (4,44) nb durian (2,90) 4,78 p 487,78 23,89 u 0,18 9,46 p total 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 keterangan: *) perhitungan tahun 2007 dengan data pdrb karimun dan kepri sementara; u= unggulan, apabila memiliki nilai slq dan dlq lebih dari 1 (satu); a=andalan, apabila memiliki nilai dlq lebih dari 1 (satu); p=prospektif, apabila memiliki nilai slq lebih dari 1 (satu); nb=non basis, apabila memiliki nilai slq dan dlq kurang dari 1 (satu) sumber: karimun dalam angka 2007, kepri dalam angka 2006, diolah jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 11, nomor 1, april 2010: 1-19 6 sangat cocok namun demikian persoalan di luar pertanian yaitu masalah pemasaran pascapanen masih menjadi kendala besar. hal ini dapat dipahami karena konsumsi nenas langsung oleh masyarakat kecil, berbeda dengan buah lain seperti jeruk, rambutan, durian adalah produk yang dapat dikonsumsi oleh kebanyakan masyarakat secara langsung. subsektor basis komoditas sayur-sayuran. pada subsektor sayur-sayuran mengindikasikan bahwa selain cabe terdapat kecenderungan menjadi subsektor basis, lihat tabel 6. sawi, kacang panjang, kangkung, dan bayam merupakan komoditas basis yang prospektif sedang terung dan ketimun cenderung menjadi komoditas andalan. di antara semua komoditas tersebut kacang panjang dan bayam merupakan komoditas yang paling unggul, terbukti untuk kacang panjang pada tahun 2005 menjadi komoditas unggulan, dan untuk bayam pada tahun 2006 juga menjadi komoditas unggulan. dengan demikian secara umum sebenarnya daerah mempunyai kemampuan dalam pengembangan komoditas sayur-sayuran ini. dilihat berdasarkan kesuburan tanah terutama di daerah kecamatan kundur, kundur utara, karimun, moro, dan buru dapat dikembangkan komoditas pertanian sayur-sayuran. di antara sekian produk sayur-sayuran yang ada, cabe adalah produk yang relatif perlu penanganan khusus dan perlu ketelitian mulai dari pembenihan sampai saat panen. subsektor basis komoditas perikanan. berdasarkan nilai lq tahun 2007 yang dapat dihitung ternyata di kabupaten karimun mempunyai banyak jenis ikan unggulan yang berhasil ditangkap yaitu ikan manyung, bawal putih, kakap putih, ikan nomei/lomei, udang putih, dan cumi-cumi. kemudian ikan kembung adalah jenis ikan andalan yang berhasil ditangkap. nomei, belanak, dan karau adalah jenis ikan yang prospektif untuk dapat ditangkap dan dipasarkan pada pasar domestik maupun luar negeri, lihat tabel 7. pada tabel 8 dapat dijelaskan bahwa untuk ikan hasil budidaya berdasarkan perhitungan lq tahun 2007 ternyata yang memiliki jenis ikan unggul hanya ikan udang vaname. sedang prospektif untuk dikembangkan adalah jenis rumput laut, ikan lele, dan bawal, dan jenis lainnya nampaknya masih belum dapat dikategorikan produk basis daerah. hal ini mengindikasikan bahwa untuk hasil ikan budidaya di karimun dilihat dari sisi kewilayahan di daerah kepulauan riau masih perlu ditingkatkan lebih intensif lagi karena unggulan daerah hanya pada ikan udang vaname saja. walaupun yang sudah masuk kategori basis prospektif sudah ada beberapa jenis ikan seperti rumput laut, ikan lele, dan bawal. strategi, kebijakan, dan program pengembangan strategi umum berdasarkan swot analisis. tabel 6. perhitungan nilai lq pada subsektor perkebunan kabupaten karimun tahun 2005–2007 subsektor 2005 2006 2007 dlq slq basis dlq slq basis dlq slq basis sawi (12,75) 7,83 p (2,19) 0,98 nb (0,04) 11,30 p kacang panjang 57,66 6,83 u 0,45 1,69 p 0,86 1,20 p cabe 0,70 0,39 nb (4,07) 1,94 p (0,25) 0,14 nb terong 1,32 p (20,86) 0,26 nb 6,04 0,44 a ketimun 7,68 p 0,48 0,55 nb 5,22 0,93 a kangkung (12,30) 6,33 p (2,16) 0,97 nb 0,19 1,07 p bayam 0,09 0,17 nb 10,06 3,26 u 0,05 1,31 p jumlah 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 1,00 keterangan: *) perhitungan tahun 2007 dengan data pdrb karimun dan kepri sementara; u=unggulan, apabila memiliki nilai slq dan dlq lebih dari 1 (satu); a=andalan, apabila memiliki nilai dlq lebih dari 1 (satu); p=prospektif, apabila memiliki nilai slq lebih dari 1 (satu); nb=non basis, apabila memiliki nilai slq dan dlq kurang dari 1 (satu) sumber: karimun dalam angka 2007, kepri dalam angka 2006, diolah pengembangan potensi unggulan sektor pertanian (nano prawoto) 7 penyusunan strategi pengembangan dilakukan dengan tiga tahap pelaksanaan. tahap tersebut meliputi; (a) pengumpulan dan manajemen data, baik data internal dan data eksternal (b) tahap analisis data yang berkaitan dengan produk unggulan, (c) tahap penyusunan strategi yang didasarkan pada evaluasi internal dan eksternal sektor dan kemudian akan dilakukan arah kebijakan pengembangan, dan pada akhirnya menemukan program pengembangan. analisis kondisi daerah pada sektor unggulan dan rekomendasi strategi umum yang bisa dilakukan daerah dalam rangka pengembangan sektor unggulan daerah, dapat dilihat pada tabel 9 sampai dengan tabel 12 dalam lampiran. arahan kebijakan pengembangan sektor unggulan. hasil survei lapangan dan wawancara tabel 7. perhitungan nilai lq pada subsektor perikanan budidaya di kabupaten karimun tahun 2007 jenis ikan 2007 dlq slq basis rumput laut 0,12 1,43 p ikan lele 0,21 3,31 p ikan mas 0,79 0,07 nb ikan kakap 0,80 0,64 nb ikan kerapu -0,11 0,00 nb ikan bandeng 0,00 0,08 nb udang windu -0,01 0,42 nb udang vaname 7,90 3,03 u nila 0,00 0,09 nb patin 0,00 0,00 nb gurami 0,00 0,08 nb bawal 0,00 1,01 p keterangan: *) perhitungan tahun 2007 dengan data pdrb karimun dan kepri sementara; u=unggulan, apabila memiliki nilai slq dan dlq lebih dari 1 (satu); a=andalan, apabila memiliki nilai dlq lebih dari 1 (satu); p=prospektif, apabila memiliki nilai slq lebih dari 1 (satu); nb=non basis, apabila memiliki nilai slq dan dlq kurang dari 1 (satu) sumber: dinas perikanan karimun, kepri, 2006-2007 tabel 8. perhitungan nilai lq pada subsektor perikanan budidaya di kabupaten karimun tahun 2007 jenis ikan 2007 dlq slq basis rumput laut 0,12 1,43 p ikan lele 0,21 3,31 p ikan mas 0,79 0,07 nb ikan kakap 0,80 0,64 nb ikan kerapu -0,11 0,00 nb ikan bandeng 0,00 0,08 nb udang windu -0,01 0,42 nb udang vaname 7,90 3,03 u nila 0,00 0,09 nb patin 0,00 0,00 nb gurami 0,00 0,08 nb bawal 0,00 1,01 p keterangan: *) perhitungan tahun 2007 dengan data pdrb karimun dan kepri sementara; u=unggulan, apabila memiliki nilai slq dan dlq lebih dari 1 (satu); a=andalan, apabila memiliki nilai dlq lebih dari 1 (satu); p=prospektif, apabila memiliki nilai slq lebih dari 1 (satu); nb=non basis, apabila memiliki nilai slq dan dlq kurang dari 1 (satu) sumber: dinas perikanan karimun, kepri, 2006-2007 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 11, nomor 1, april 2010: 1-19 8 langsung dengan para petani dan nelayan, pelaku usaha dan pengambil kebijakan (policy makers), dan berdasarkan analisis data dengan menggunakan metode tk, lq, dan ss maka kabupaten karimun memiliki potensi ekonomi unggulan yang cukup besar dan dapat dikembangkan untuk meningkatkan kesejahteraan masyarakat. survei lapangan dilakukan untuk menggali informasi dan menangkap aspirasi yang berkembang di masyarakat. informasi ekonomi yang berkembang menyangkut potensi ekonomi unggulan, kendala yang dihadapi, peluang dan prospek pengembangan ekonomi masyarakat dan tantangan yang ada. berdasarkan kajian dokumen dan survei lapangan, maka dapat diidentifikasikan subsektor unggulan, andalan maupun prospektif pengembangan ekonomi masyarakat kabupaten karimun yang disajikan dalam tabel 13 dalam lampiran. (1) kebijakan umum. arah kebijakan umum pengembangan ekonomi kerakyatan untuk produk unggulan di bidang pertanian adalah pemberdayaan sistem agribisnis pertanian yang mengarah pada peningkatan kemampuan dan kemandirian sumber daya manusia (sdm) pertanian dan kelembagaan untuk dapat memanfaatkan sumberdaya daya pertanian secara optimal dan lestari melalui pemanfaatan teknologi tepat guna untuk meningkatkan produktivitas, pendapatan, dan kesejahteraan masyarakat petani dan nelayan. sistem agribisnis pertanian sengaja dikembangkan mengingat sistem ini mampu mengintegrasikan empat subsistem usaha pertanian mulai dari hulu hingga hilir. pertama, subsistem agribisnis hulu (up-stream agribusiness) yang merupakan kegiatan ekonomi yang menyediakan sarana produksi bagi pertanian, seperti usaha di bidang pengadaan dan perdagangan sarana pertanian dan perikanan (alat olah lahan pertanian, mesin pengolah karet, kapal, perahu, alat tangkap, dan lain-lain) dan sarana budidaya pertanian dan perikanan (benih, pupuk, pakan, obat-obatan, dan lain-lain). kedua, subsistem on-farm agribusiness yang merupakan kegiatan ekonomi yang menggunakan sarana produksi untuk menghasilkan produk pertanian primer. usaha yang masuk ke dalam subsistem ini adalah usaha pertanian produk unggulan dan budidaya produk unggulan. ketiga, subsistem agribisnis hilir (down-stream agribusiness) yang berupa kegiatan ekonomi yang mengolah produk pertanian primer menjadi produk olahan, termasuk di dalamnya kegiatan pemasaran. keempat, kegiatan ekonomi terkait yang dikenal sebagai subsistem penunjang. subsistem penunjang adalah seluruh kegiatan ekonomi yang menyediakan jasa bagi agribisnis pertanian, seperti lembaga keuangan, lembaga penelitian dan pengembangan, lembaga transportasi, lembaga pendidikan, dan lembaga pemerintah. (2) kebijakan operasional. arah kebijakan umum di atas kemudian dijabarkan ke dalam kebijakan operasional dalam pengembangan sektor unggulan di kabupaten karimun meliputi kebijakan yang komprehensif baik pada skala kecil maupun skala luas. kebijakan yang dapat diidentifikasi untuk arah kebijakan operasional sektor unggulan daerah ada beberapa kebijakan strategis yang merupakan kebijakan yang melibatkan banyak pihak. kebijakan tersebut antara lain sebagai berikut: (a) kebijakan perekonomian daerah yang diarahkan untuk stabilisasi kondisi perekonomian seperti stabilitas harga barang-barang dan jasa, kebijakan tentang pembiayaan dengan suku bunga murah. (b) kebijakan pengembangan kelembagaan masyarakat yang mendorong aktivitas ekonomi sektor unggulan. kebijakan ini menyentuh kelompok masyarakat, kelompok usaha, maupun koperasi. (c) kebijakan yang berhubungan dengan infrastruktur yang mendukung terciptanya akselerasi pengembangan sektor unggulan daerah. (d) kebijakan yang menyangkut kemitraan antara petani atau kelompok petani, usaha kecil dengan usaha besar dalam pengembanganproduk unggulan hingga memasarkan hasil produksi. (e) kebijakan mempromosikan potensi investasi daerah pada produk-produk unggulan daerah. (f) kebijakan peningkatan kemampuan pengetahuan dan skill kapasitas sumber daya manusia penggerak sektor unggulan. (g) kebijakan pengamanan ketahanan pangan dengan tetap mempertahan ketersediaan bahan pokok dan sumber karbohidrat lainnya, serta pengembangan potensi unggulan sektor pertanian (nano prawoto) 9 produk pertanian lainnya untuk menjamin ketersediaan protein, vitamin, dan mineral. (h) kebijakan peningkatan produktivitas, produksi, daya saing, dan nilai tambah produk unggulan dengan tetap memperhatikan aspekaspek kelestarian lingkungan. (i) kebijakan pengembangan usaha pertanian dengan pendekatan kewilayahan terpadu dengan konsep pengembangan agribisnis dan agropolitan untuk mengembangkan skala ekonomi, sehingga akan lebih meningkatkan efisiensi dan nilai tambah. (j) kebijakan pembangunan perkebunan diarahkan pada perluasan areal dan peremajaan kebun dengan memperhatikan keterkaitan penyediaan input, terutama bibit unggul, pupuk, dan pestisida; (k) pengembangan industri berbasis perkebunan dengan terus mengembangkan turunan produk untuk mendapatkan nilai tambah yang tinggi. (l) pengembangan, penguatan sistem, dan akses pasar produk pertanian melalui pengembangan kemitraan yang saling ketergantungan antara petani dengan pengusaha. (m) kebijakan pengembangan industri yang lebih menekankan pada agroindustri skala kecil dipedesaan dalam rangka meningkatkan nilai tambah dan pendapatan masyarakat petani. (n) kebijakan pengembangan kajian teknologi tepat guna dalam mendukung upaya peningkatan value added produk unggulan daerah. (o) kebijakan perluasan lahan sektor unggulan daerah dalam upaya meningkatkan produksi daerah untuk mendukung ketahanan pangan daerah. (p) kebijakan stabilisasi harga yang berkaitan dengan produk pendukung sektor unggulan, seperti pupuk, bibit, pestisida, obat-obatan, makanan ternak/ikan, dan lainnya. (q) kebijakan pemberdayaan masyarakat pesisir dan pulau-pulau kecil. (r) kebijakan peningkatan kesejahteraan masyarakat petani dan nelayan. (s) kebijakan meningkatkan koordinasi, pengawasan dan penindakan terhadap aktivitas penangkapan ikan secara ilegal dan sumber daya laut lainnya. (3) program pengembangan produk unggulan. berdasarkan strategi dan arah kebijakan yang dapat dirumuskan, maka berikut adalah program pengembangan yang dapat dilakukan oleh pemerintah daerah kabupaten karimun dalam hal ini adalah dinas-dinas yang terkait dalam menyusun rencana kerja dalam pengembangan produk unggulan daerah. untuk itu perlu diidentifikasi permasalahan ekonomi yang dihadapi, prospek pengembangan dan kendala yang dihadapi pada tiap unit usaha di atas untuk dapat dirumuskan program pengembangan potensi ekonomi atau produk unggulan masyarakat di kabupaten karimun. tabel 14 dalam lampiran menjelaskan mengenai permasalahan dan solusi pengembangan pada bidang usaha ekonomi masyarakat kabupaten karimun. simpulan pengembangan sektor pertanian di kabupaten karimun adalah sesuatu yang tepat dalam mengangkat pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah, karena berdasarkan perhitungan analisis basis ekonomi dan kinerja sektor menunjukkan bahwa sektor pertanian mempunyai kriteria basis yang unggul. dengan demikian, pemerintah daerah seharusnya dalam perencanaan pengembangan sektor mengacu pada programprogram pengembangan pada sektor unggulan, walaupun tidak menutup sektor lain yang baru berkembang maupun kurang berkembang. strategi, kebijakan dan program yang ditawarkan dalam penelitian ini diharapkan dapat menjadi referensi daerah dalam pengembangan sektor terutama sektor ekonomi kecil atau kerakyatan. sehingga perekonomian daerah dapat berkembang dengan pertumbuhan yang cukup signifikan dan akhirnya pendapatan perkapita penduduk dan kesejahteraan meningkat. daftar pustaka badan pusat statistik. 2002-2006a. kabupaten karimun dalam angka. karimun: bps. badan pusat statistik. 2002-2006b. pdrb kabupaten karimun. karimun: bps. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 11, nomor 1, april 2010: 1-19 10 badan pusat statistik. 2002-2006c. provinsi kepulauan riau dalam angka. riau: bps. bapeda. 2001.penelitian dan pengembangan agribisnis di kabupaten karimun. blanchfield, william c. 1976. economic development.ohio: grid inc. coleman. 1988. making decision work bussiness analysis in land and farm investment. journal of management strategic, vol. 23, p.32–56. elyas, nurdin. 2006. menjadi jutawan melalui home industri aneka olahan kelapa. yogyakarta: absolut. gittinger, j. p. 1986. analisis ekonomi proyekproyek pertanian. jakarta: universitas indonesia. godet. 1994. structural analysis methods using qualitative approach toward economics investment. journal of economics sciences, vol. 7. hadisapoetro, soedarsono. 1986. biaya dan pendapatan di dalam usahatani. yogyakarta: penerbit fakultas pertanian universitas gadjah mada. heddi. s. 1990. budidaya tanaman coklat. bandung: penerbit angkasa. hit, ireland, hokisson. 1999. policy analysis models and concept for building competences. engelwood cliff: prentice hall. lembaga penelitian tanaman industri bogor. 1974. pedoman bercocok tanam kelapa. bogor: lptib. neil reid, michael c. carroll, and bruce w. smith. 2007. critical steps in the cluster building process. economic development journal, 6(4):43-52. pemda kolaka. 2006. studi pengembangan sektor perkebunan dan pertanian untuk kecamatan wondulako, kolaka dan pomalaa. quintero, james paul. 2007. regional economic development: an economic base study and shift-share analysis of hayscounty, texas. applied research projects, texas state university-san marcos. soekartawi. 1996. panduan membuat usulan proyek pertanian dan pedesaan. universitas brawijaya. malang: penerbit andi. pengembangan potensi unggulan sektor pertanian (nano prawoto) 11 lampiran tabel 9. matriks swot tanaman perkebunan kabupaten karimun ifas efas strength (s) 1. tersedianya lahan yang potensi dilihat dari kesesuaian lahan 2. kepedulian dan keberpihakan pemerintah cukup tinggi dalam bantuan pembenihan dan budidaya 3. adanya kebijakan umum tentang pengembangan sektor pertanian dan perkebunan 4. jangkauan dengan pasar internasional seperti negara tetangga dekat 5. iklim yang mendukung untuk pengembangan produk 6. jaminan pemerintah daerah untuk pengembangan investasi weaknes (w) 1. lahan belum dimanfaatkan secara optimal 2. budaya kerja yang belum menunjang akselerasi program 3. infrastruktur dan kelembagaan ekonomi masih kurang 4. kemampuan dan pengetahuan petani dalam penyerapan teknologi masih rendah 5. pemilikan modal petani masih relatif kecil 6. kondisi ekonomi masyarakat petani 7. tingkat kehilangan dan kerusakan hasil produksi masih tinggi 8. pemasaran (pascapanen) masih minim (gambir) 9. kelangkaan dan naiknya harga pupuk (pupuk kandang dan pupuk kimia) 10. tanaman yang sudah mulai kurang produktif (karet) 11. biaya yang mahal untuk pembelian bibit (kelapa sawit) 12. hasil produksi masih fluktuatif opportunity (o) 1. letak yang strategis, berdekatan dengan kota-kota lainya baik domestik maupun luar negeri 2. meningkatnya permintaan pasar, baik dalam maupun luar negeri 3. kemajuan yang pesat pada bidang bioteknologi tanaman 4. tersedianya jalur transportasi laut yang cukup memadai 5. perdagangan bebas memungkinkan investor pengembangan agribisnis 6. dampak perekonomian kabupaten karimun dengan adanya special economic zone (sez) strategi so 1. optimalisasi penggunaan lahan yang ada 2. optimalisasi pasca panen hasil perkebunan 3. optimalisasi bantuan permodalan 4. peningkatan bidang bioteknologi 5. peningkatan value added dari output perkebunan strategi wo 1. penguatan pengetahuan petani 2. penguatan posisi tawar menawar petani 3. perbaikan distribusi pupuk 4. adanya kemitraan dengan swasta 5. peningkatan sistem perkebunan berkelanjutan threat (t) 1. keengganan angkatan kerja baru disektor pertanian 2. alih fungsi lahan ke sektor lainnya 3. serangan hama yang menurunkan produksi strategi st 1. melakukan usaha kemitraan dengan pihak swasta dengan mengedepankan prinsip saling menguntungkan 2. penegakan aturan tentang lahan pertanian, perkebunan strategi wt 1. peningkatan pengetahuan kesejahteraan petani 2. membantu petani dalam hal masalah modal seperti kredit usaha tani atau sejenisnya jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 11, nomor 1, april 2010: 1-19 12 4. kemandirian petani masih kurang, sehingga masih menjadi petani garap tabel 10. matriks swot tanaman pangan kabupaten karimun ifas efas strength (s) 1. tersedianyan lahan yang potensi dilihat dari kesesuaian lahan 2. kepedulian dan keberpihakan pemerintah cukup tinggi dalam bantuan pembenihan dan budidaya 3. adanya kebijakan umum tentang pengembangan sektor pertanian dan perkebunan 4. jangkauan dengan pasar internasional seperti negara tetangga dekat 5. iklim yang mendukung untuk pengembangan produk 6. jaminan pemerintah daerah untuk pengembangan investasi weaknes (w) 1. lahan belum dimanfaatkan secara optimal 2. infrastruktur dan kelembagaan ekonomi masih kurang 3. kemampuan dan pengetahuan petani dalam mengolah pertanian dan penyerapan teknologi masih rendah 4. pemilikan modal petani masih relative kecil 5. tingkat kehilangan dan kerusakan hasil produksi masih tinggi 6. pemasaran (pascapanen) masih minim 7. hasil produksi masih fluktuatif 8. pemanfaatan lahan tanaman pokok padi masih rendah 9. industri pengolahan bahan pokok, seperti jagung, kacang, ubi kayu dan jalar masih kurang optimal opportunity (o) 1. letak yang strategis, berdekatan dengan kota-kota lainnya baik domestik maupun luar negeri 2. kemajuan yang pesat pada bidang bioteknologi tanaman 3. meningkatnya permintaan pasar, baik dalam maupun luar negeri 4. tersedianya jalur transportasi laut yang cukup memadai 5. perdagangan bebas memungkinkan investor pengembangan agribisnis 6. dampak perekonomian kabupaten karimun dengan adanya special economic zone (sez) 7. bantuan permodalan bagi pengusaha kecil, menengah dan mikro strategi so 1. optimalisasi penggunaan lahan yang ada, membuka pasar baru 2. peningkatan bidang bioteknologi strategi wo 1. optimalisasi penggunaan lahan yang ada 2. peningkatan industri yang bermuara pada sektor pertanian pangan 3. peningkatan sistem pertanian berkelanjutan 4. adanya kerjasama dengan pihak swasta (baik domestik maupun mancanegara) dalam hal pengembangan pertanian. 5. peningkatan pengetahuan dan kemampuan petani threat (t) 1. keengganan angkatan kerja baru di sektor pertanian 2. alih fungsi lahan pada sektor strategi st 1. peningkatan keberdayaan dan kemandirian masyarakat tani melalui peningkatan sdm starategi wt 1. peningkatan produktifitas kelompok tani 2. optimalisasi lembaga ekonomi pengembangan potensi unggulan sektor pertanian (nano prawoto) 13 lainnya 3. serangan hama yang menurunkan produksi 4. kemandirian petani masih kurang, sehingga masih banyak menjadi petani garap petani 2. pemanfaatan fungsi lahan pertanian sesuai dengan rencana tata ruang dan wilayah masyarakat seperti koperasi yang mengakar dari bawah 3. peningkatan kesejahteraan petani tabel 11. matriks swot tanaman hortikultura kabupaten karimun ifas efas strength (s) 1. tersedianyan lahan yang potensi dilihat dari kesesuaian lahan 2. kepedulian dan keberpihakan pemerintah cukup tinggi dalam hal memajukan sektor ini 3. adanya kebijakan umum tentang pengembangan sektor pertanian dan perkebunan 4. jangkauan dengan pasar internasional seperti negaratetangga dekat 5. iklim yang mendukung untuk pengembangan produk 6. jaminan pemerintah daerah untuk pengembangan investasi weaknes (w) 1. lahan belum dimanfaatkan secara optimal 2. budaya kerja yang belum menujang akselerasi program 3. infrastruktur dan kelembagaan ekonomi masih kurang 4. kemampuan dan pengetahuan petani masih rendah 5. pemilikan modal petani masih relatif kecil 6. koperasi belum berkembang 7. keterampilan petani yang rendah 8. hasil produksi masih fluktuatif 9. budidaya pembibitan masih kurang optimal opportunity (o) 1. letak geografis yang strategis 2. meningkatnya permintaan pasar, baik dalam maupun luar negeri 3. kemajuan yang pesat pada bidang bioteknologi tanaman 4. tersedianya jalur transportasi laut 5. perdagangan bebas memungkinkan investor pengembangan agroindustri strategi so 1. optimalisasi daerah dalam mendatangkan investor industri olahan buah 2. peningkatan jumlah mutu pertanian hortikultura dalam hal kualitas produksi, penanaman 3. akses pasar dan pemberdayaan lembaga penunjang 4. peningkatan pengembangan agribisnis strategi wo 1. pelatihan,pembinaan dan penyuluhan dalam rangka peningkatan pengetahuan petani terhadap teknologi pertanian. 2. optimalisasi kinerja petugas lapangan dan dinas terkait (pascapanen) 3. peningkatan industri kecil produk olahan buah-buahan threat (t) 1. keengganan angkatan kerja baru di sektor pertanian 2. alih fungsi lahan 3. serangan hama 4. kemandirian petani masih kurang strategi st 1. peningkatan posisi tawar petani melalui jaminan pasar dan informasi yang up to date 2. peningkatan pembimbingan dan penyuluhan strategi wt 1. penyediaan infrastruktur untuk peningkatan produktivitas, 2. akses pasar dan pendapatan petani serta 3. penguatan kelembagaan ekonomi petani/koperasi petani jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 11, nomor 1, april 2010: 1-19 14 tabel 12. matriks swot perikanan kabupaten karimun ifas efas strength (s) 1. potensi sumberdaya kelautan dan perikanan sangat besar 2. kepedulian dan keberpihakan pemerintah sudah cukup tinggi dalam hal memajukan sektor perikanan 3. adanya kebijakan umum tentang pengembangan sektor perikanan 4. jangkauan dengan pasar internasional seperti negara tetangga dekat weakness (w) 1. sumberdaya kelautan dan perikanan belum dimanfaatkan secara optimal 2. sarana dan prasarana perikanan tangkap kurang berkembang 3. tpi tidak merata di setiap daerah, seperti kundur belum ada 4. keterampilan nelayan masih rendah 5. pemilikan modal melayani masih relatif kecil 6. turnover nelayan bukan pemilik kapal masih tinggi 7. persaingan antara nelayan tradisional dan modern 8. produksi perikanan tangkap yang semakin menurun 9. transaksi hasil penangkapan di tengah laut 10. kemampuan dan pengetahuan petani tambak masih rendah 11. kelangkaan dan naiknya harga pakan ikan 12. ketersediaan benih untuk budidaya masih rendah 13. tingkat kehilangan dan kerusakan hasil produksi tambak masih tinggi 14. hasil produksi perikanan masih fluktuatif 15. harga hasil produksi ditentukan oleh tauke 16. koordinasi antara pengusaha pembeli dengan pemerintah masih lemah, misal dalam penentuan harga rumput laut 17. industri pengolahan hasil perikanan masih sedikit 18. infrastruktur dan kelembagaan ekonomi masih kurang 19. koperasi belum berkembang 20. budaya kerja yang belum menunjang akselerasi program 21. keengganan angkatan kerja baru untuk bekerja di sektor perikanan 22. kemandirian nelayan dan pembudidaya masih lemah pengembangan potensi unggulan sektor pertanian (nano prawoto) 15 opportunity (o) 1. letak geografis yang strategis 2. permintaan pasar baik dalam maupun luar negeri semakin meningkat 3. tersedia jalur transportasi laut 4. perdagangan bebas memungkinkan investor masuk 5. dampak perekonomian kabupaten karimun dengan adanya special economic zone (sez) 6. bantuan permodalan bagi pengusaha mikro, kecil, dan menengah strategi so 1. peningkatan usaha penangkapan ikan yang produktif dan berwawasan lingkungan 2. peningkatan usaha budidaya yang berdaya saing 3. pengembangan industri pengolahan dan pemasaran hasil perikanan 4. peningkatan promosi potensi perikanan 5. peningkatan kerjasama dengan investor dan mitra usaha strategi wo 1. perbaikan dan peningkatan sarana dan prasarana usaha perikanan 2. peningkatan kualitas sdm nelayan dan pembudidaya 3. pemberdayaan umkm dan koperasi 4. peningkatan kelembagaan kelompok nelayan dan pembudidaya 5. peningkatan goodwill pemerintah dalam mengendalikan pasar dan harga threat (t) 1. penangkapan ikan secara ilegal oleh nelayan asing 2. alat tangkap terlarang dan destruktif masih digunakan 3. serangan hama dan penyakit pada budidaya 4. degradasi lingkungan pesisir dan laut strategi st 1. peningkatan pengawasan dan pengendalian dalam penangkapan ikan dan budidaya strategi wt 1. rehabilitasi dan konservasi sumberdaya perikanan tabel 13. sektor usaha dan komoditas unggulan daerah sektor usaha komoditas prioritas utama prioritas tanaman perekebunan  karet  kelapa  cengkeh  lada  gambir tanaman pangan  ubi kayu  ubi jalar  kacang tanah  jagung tanaman buah-buahan  durian  rambutan  nangka  nenas  manggis tanaman sayur-sayuran  kacang panjang  bayam  terong  ketimun  kangkung  sawi perikanan tangkap  mayung  kakap putih  bawal putih  nomei/lomei  udang putih  cumi-cumi  kembung  belanak  kurisi  karau perikanan budidaya  udang vaname  rumput laut  ikan lele  bawal jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 11, nomor 1, april 2010: 1-19 16 tabel 14. rumusan permasalahan dan solusi pengembangan sektor ekonomi unggulan daerah kabupaten karimun sektor permasalahan program pengembangan tanaman perkebunan  belum optimalnya pemanfaatan lahan pertanian  tanaman yang sudah mulai kurang produktif (karet)  hasil produksi masih fluktuatif  program perkebunan yang diarahkan pada perluasan areal dan peremajaan kebun dengan memperhatikan keterkaitan penyediaan input, terutama bibit unggul, pupuk dan pestisida.  budaya kerja yang belum menunjang akselerasi program  kemampuan dan pengetahuan petani dalam penyerapan teknologi masih rendah  program peningkatan sdm petani, pelatihan kemampuan teknis petani, pelatihan penggunaan teknologi  biaya relatif mahal untuk pembelian bibit  program bantuan bibit unggul pada petani lahan kebun maupun petani lahan pekarangan  infrastruktur dan kelembagaan ekonomi masih kurang  program peningkatan sarana prasarana kelembagaan ekonomi, fungsi kelompok tani maupun koperasi  kelangkaan dan naiknya harga pupuk  program stabilisasi harga pupuk dengan pengawasan jalur distribusi  pemilikan modal petani masih relatif kecil  kondisi ekonomi masyarakat petani  program pengembangan akses modal melalui bantuan pusat dan daerah, maupun akses lembaga keuangan/bank dengan biaya modal yang kecil juga akses investor dan mitra usaha  industri pengolahan perkebunan belum berkembang  program peningkatan value added produk unggulan (kelapa, karet)  program riset, studi kelayakan investasi pabrik karet  program pengembangan industri berbasis perkebunan dengan terus mengembangkan turunan produk untuk mendapatkan nilai tambah yang tinggi.  pemasaran produk terbatas (terutama gambir)  program pengembangan akses pasar produk perkebunan melalui pengembangan kemitraan yang saling menguntungkan antara petani dengan pengusaha bukan monopoli tanaman pangan  lahan belum dimanfaatkan secara optimal  pemanfaatan lahan tanaman pokok padi masih rendah (bukan unggulan)  program pertanian yang diarahkan pada perluasan areal pertanian dengan memperhatikan keterkaitan penyediaan input, terutama bibit unggul, pupuk, dan pestisida.  program pengembangan lahan padi unggul  program bantuan bibit unggul pada petani terutama jagung  program pengamanan pangan melalui pengamanan lahan sawah di daerah irigasi, peningkatan mutu intensifikasi, pengembangan budidaya pertanian dan perluasan areal pertanian dengan tetap berpegang pada aspek-aspek optimasi dan kelestarian produksi  infrastruktur dan kelembagaan ekonomi masih kurang  program peningkatan sarana prasarana kelembagaan ekonomi, fungsi kelompok tani maupun koperasi pengembangan potensi unggulan sektor pertanian (nano prawoto) 17 sektor permasalahan program pengembangan  kemampuan dan pengetahuan petani dalam mengolah pertanian dan penyerapan teknologi masih rendah  program peningkatan sdm petani, pelatihan kemampuan teknis petani  pemilikan modal petani masih relatif kecil  kesejahteraan petani masih rendah  program pengembangan akses modal melalui bantuan pusat dan daerah, maupun akses lembaga keuangan/bank dengan biaya modal yang kecil juga akses investor dan mitra usaha  program pendampingan kemampuan teknis model tanaman tumpangsari  masih rendahnya peningkatan value added, seperti jagung, kacang, ubi kayu dan jalar  program peningkatan value added produk unggulan, pelatihan peningkatan skill pembuatan kripik ubi kayu, ubi jalar, maupun olahan jagung  program pengembangan industri berbasis bahan makanan dengan terus mengembangkan turunan produk untuk mendapatkan nilai tambah yang tinggi.  program peningkatan distribusi pangan, melalui penguatan kapasitas kelembagaan pangan dan peningkatan infrastruktur perdesaan yang mendukung sistem distribusi pangan, untuk menjamin keterjangkauan masyarakat atas pangan.  pemasaran (pascapanen) masih minim  program pengembangan akses pasar produk pertanian melalui pengembangan kemitraan yang saling menguntungkan antara petani dengan pengusaha bukan monopoli  kelangkaan pupuk dan harga yang berfluktuatif  program stabilisasi harga pupuk dengan pengawasan jalur distribusi tanaman buahbuahan dan tanaman sayur-sayuran  lahan belum dimanfaatkan secara optimal  program bantuan bibit unggul pada petani lahan kebun maupun petani lahan pekarangan  program penyuluhan dan pendampingan usaha tanaman hortikultura pada daerah subur lainnya  pengembangan kawasan sentra produksi (ksp) berbasis komoditas unggulan  budaya kerja yang belum menunjang akselerasi program  kemampuan dan pengetahuan petani ddalam penguasaan iptek masih rendah  keterampilan petani yang rendah  program peningkatan sdm petani, pelatihan kemampuan teknis petani,  program pemagangan petani untuk tanaman hortikultura  program studi banding di daerah yang maju pertaniannya  infrastruktur dan kelembagaan ekonomi masih kurang  keberadaan koperasi masih belum optimal mendukung usaha petani  program pemberdayaan usaha bersama melalui kelompok tani, koperasi usaha, dan kelompok usaha bersama agribisnis (kuba) jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 11, nomor 1, april 2010: 1-19 18 sektor permasalahan program pengembangan  pemilikan modal petani masih relatif kecil  program pengembangan akses modal melalui bantuan pusat dan daerah, maupun akses lembaga keuangan/bank dengan biaya modal yang kecil juga akses investor dan mitra usaha  budidaya pembibitan masih kurang optimal  program pengembangan usaha pembenihan rakyat (upr)  permasalahan pemasaran pasca panen  program pengembangan akses pasar produk buah-buahan dan sayuran melalui pengembangan kemitraan yang saling menguntungkan antara petani dengan pengusaha  perluasan jaringan informasi dan pangsa pasar, baik domestik maupun internasional  pengembangan industri pengolahan hasil tanaman hotikultura masih belum optimal  program promosi daerah dalam mendatangkan investor industri olahan buah  program pengembangan kajian teknologi tepat guna dalam mendukung upaya peningkatan value added produk unggulan daerah, bekerjasama dengan perguruan tinggi daerah setempat  program peningkatan value added produk unggulan, pelatihan peningkatan skill pembuatan kripik buah-buahan (orentasi ekspor) perikanan tangkap  produksi ikan hasil tangkapan cenderung menurun  restrukturisasi dan modernisasi armada perikanan tangkap terutama untuk perikanan tangkap skala kecil  pengembangan perikanan tangkap pada wilayah perairan lepas pantai, dengan sasaran kelompok ikan pelagis besar (tuna, cakalang, dll).  pengembangan sistem informasi dan data base perikanan tangkap  prasarana dan sarana masih kurang memadai, serta persebarannya kurang merata  pengembangan pangkalan pendaratan ikan (ppi) dan tempat pelelangan ikan (tpi) pada beberapa wilayah yang membutuhkan, seperti di kundur.  restrukturisasi dan modernisasi armada perikanan tangkap terutama untuk perikanan tangkap skala kecil  kemampuan manajerial dan penguasaan iptek nelayan masih relatif rendah  pemberdayaan nelayan melalui penyuluhan, pendidikan, dan latihan  struktur permodalan nelayan masih sangat terbatas  pengembangan kerjasama dengan lembaga keuangan/perbankan, investor dan mitra usaha  pemberdayaan usaha bersama melalui kelompok nelayan, koperasi usaha, koperasi mina, dan kelompok usaha bersama agribisnis (kuba) pengembangan potensi unggulan sektor pertanian (nano prawoto) 19 sektor permasalahan program pengembangan  sistem pelelangan dan pemasaran ikan masih belum optimal, serta masih sering terjadi transaksi di laut  pemberdayaan ppi dan tpi melalui peningkatan fasilitas dan pelayanan  penguatan sistem pelelangan dan pemasaran  peningkatan kesadaran dan penegakan hukum  peningkatan pengawasan dan pengendalian terutama melalui pemberdayaan sistem pengawasan berbasis masyarakat (siswasmas)  terjadinya penangkapan ikan secara ilegal oleh nelayan asing, serta penggunaan alat tangkap terlarang dan destruktif  pengembangan alat tangkap yang selektif dan ramah lingkungan  peningkatan kesadaran dan penegakan hukum  peningkatan pengawasan dan pengendalian terutama melalui pemberdayaan sistem pengawasan berbasis masyarakat (siswasmas) perikanan budidaya  produksi ikan hasil budidaya masih belum optimal, serta mutunya masih rendah  pengembangan kawasan sentra produksi (ksp) berbasis komoditas unggulan  intensifikasi budidaya ikan (inbudkan) pada komoditas-komoditas unggulan  pengembangan cara budidaya ikan yang baik (cbib)  sarana produksi masih kurang memadai, khususnya benih dan pakan  pengembangan pakan ikan alternatif  pengembangan balai benih ikan (bbi), panti pembenihan (hatchery) dan usaha pembenihan rakyat (upr)  pengembangan kerjasama kemitraan dalam penyediaan sarana produksi  kemampuan manajerial dan penguasaan iptek pembudidaya masih relatif rendah  pemberdayaan pembudidaya melalui penyuluhan, pendidikan dan latihan  struktur permodalan pembudidaya masih sangat terbatas  pengembangan kerjasama dengan lembaga keuangan/perbankan, investor dan mitra usaha  pemberdayaan usaha bersama melalui kelompok pembudidaya, koperasi usaha dan kelompok usaha bersama agribisnis (kuba)  industri pengolahan hasil perikanan belum begitu berkembang  pengembangan industri pengolahan hasil perikanan  pengembangan diversifikasi dan peningkatan nilai tambah (added value) produk perikanan  pengembangan kerjasama dengan investor dan mitra usaha  infrastruktur dan kelembagaan ekonomi masih kurang  penguatan sistem pemasaran dan lembaga ekonomi (koperasi, pasar ikan, dan lain lain)  pengembangan stabilisasi harga dan pasokan  perluasan jaringan informasi dan pangsa pasar, baik domestik maupun internasional microsoft word 04-age jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015, hlm.158-176 dampak economic freedom terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi negara asia agustina suparyati1, nurul fadilah2 1,2 faculty of economics, trisakti university, jakarta jl. kyai tapa no.1, west jakarta, dki jakarta 11440, indonesia, phone: +62-21-5663232 e-mail korespondensi: agustina.suparyati@yahoo.com naskah diterima: juli 2014; disetujui: february 2015 abstract: this study aimed to examine the effect of variable fdi, exchange rate and economic freedom and its constituent components in influencing economic growth in asian countries, which are grouped into two groups: the group of developing countries that consists of 7 countries including indonesia, thailand, malaysia, vietnam, laos, cambodia and the philippines, while for developed countries group consisting of four countries, namely japan, south korea, china and singapore in the period 2001-2012. analysis method used is the analysis of panel data. variable fdi and exchange rate as a classical variable proved significantly positive effect on economic growth in both developed and developing countries . components of economic freedom are shown to have a significant effect on economic growth in developing countries in asia is a variable property rights, business freedom, trade freedom and freedom fmancial while the components of economic freedom are shown to have a significant effect on economic growth in developed countries in asia is a variable property right, freedom froin corruption, government spendin, monetary freedom, business freedom, and freedom fmancial .in developing countries the best model is the model of the pillars of an open market in which there is a component trade freedom, investment freedom and the financial freedom. keywords: economic growth; foreign direct investment; foreign debt; bank credit; labor force jel classification: f21, f43 abstrak: studi ini bertujuan untuk melihat pengaruh variabel fdi, nilai tukar serta economic freedom dan komponen penyusunnya dalam mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi di negaranegara asia yang dikelompokkan menjadi 2 kelompok yaitu kelompok negara berkembang yang terdiri dari 7 negara antara lain indonesia, thailand, malaysia, vietnam, laos, kamboja dan filipina,sedangkan untuk kelompok negara maju yang terdiri dari 4 negara yaitu jepang, korea selatan, cina dan singapura dalam periode 2001-2012. metode analisis yang digunakan adalah analisis data panel. variabel fdi dan nilai tukar sebagai variabel klasik terbukti secara nyata berpengaruh positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi baik di negara maju maupun berkembang. komponen penyusun economic freedom yang terbukti berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di negara sedang berkembang di asia adalah variabel property right, business freedom, trade freedom dan fmancial freedom sedangkan komponen penyusun economic freedom yang terbukti berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di negara maju di asia adalah variabel property righl, freedom froin corruption, government spending, monetary freedom, business freedom, dan fmancial freedom. di negara sedang berkembang model terbaik adalah model pilar open market yang di dalamnya terdapat komponen kebebasan perdagangan, kebebasan investasi dan kebebasan finansial. kata kunci: pertumbuhan ekonomi; kebebasan ekonomi; fdi; nilai tukar klasifikasi jel: f21, f43 doi: 10.18196/jesp.2015.0049.158-176 dampak economic freedom ... (agustina suparyati, nurul fadilah) 159 pendahuluan pertumbuhan ekonomi merupakan perkembangan kegiatan dalam perekonomian yang menyebabkan barang dan jasa yang diprodu ksi dalam masyarakat bertambah sehingga akan meningkatkan kemakmuran masyarakat (sukirno, 1994). menurut boediono, pertumbuhan ekonomi merupakan proses kenaikan output per kapita dalam jangka panjang. sedangkan menurut lincolin (1997), pertumbuhan ekonomi diartikan sebagai kenaikan gdp/gnp tanpa memandang apakah kenaikan tersebut lebih besar atau lebih kecil dari tingkat pertumbuhan penduduk, dan apakah terjadi perubahan struktur ekonomi atau tidak. di dalam konteks suatu perekonomian, pertumbuhan ekonomi merupakan salah satu wacana penting yang secara berkelanjutan harus dibahas dan dianalisis di setiap negara. meskipun terdapat wacana lainnya, misalnya seperti kemiskinan, tingkat inflasi, tingkat suku bunga, investasi, tingkat pengangguran dan lain sebagainya. namun, pertumbuhan ekonomi merupakan awal atau sumber dari faktor– faktor lainnya yang juga dianggap penting dalam suatu negara. setiap negara mengharapkan perekonomian yang dicapai mengalami peningkatan terusmenerus, oleh karena itu, menjadi tujuan utama bagi suatu negara untuk mencapai pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tinggi untuk meningkatkan kesejahteraan masyarakatnya bagi semua negara tidak terkecuali bagi negara maju maupun negara sedang berkembang. pada umumnya di negara berkembang terjadi di mana pertumbuhan ekonomi merupakan salah satu ukuran dari pencapaian perekonomian negara tersebut. pada dasarnya, banyak faktor yang mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi, seperti fdi, nilai tukar, tingkat inflasi, tingkat suku bunga, neraca perdagangan, jumlah penduduk dan sebagainya. foreign direct investment (fdi) adalah investasi langsung yang diberikan oleh individu atau perusahaan ke dalam suatu bisnis atau perusahaan di negara lain, baik dengan membeli sebuah perusahaan di negara tujuan atau dengan memperluas operasi bisnis yang sudah ada. di era globalisasi ini fdi memegang peran yang penting dalam internasionalisasi bisnis. fdi juga mendorong pembangunan karena bagi negara tuan rumah atau perusahaan lokal yang menerima investasi itu, fdi menjadi sumber tumbuhnya teknologi, proses, produk sistem organisasi, dan keterampilan manajemen yang baru. lebih lanjut, fdi juga membuka pasar dan jalur pemasaran yang baru bagi perusahaan, fasilitas produksi yang lebih murah. selain itu, exchange rate atau nilai tukar juga merupakan variabel penting dalam kehidupan makro ekonomi suatu bangsa. di mana nilai tukar merupakan salah satu harga yang lebih penting dalam perekonomian terbuka. nilai tukar dapat dijadikan alat untuk mengukur kondisi perekonomian suatu negara. nilai tukar mata uang antarnegara mencerminkan nilai perbandingan nilai mata uang satu negara terhadap negara lainnya yang ditentukan oleh daya beli masing-masing negara. pertumbuhan nilai mata uang yang stabil menunjukkan bahwa negara tersebut memiliki kondisi ekonomi yang relatif baik atau stabil (oktavia, 2013). dalam hal ini seringkali mengabaikan kenyataan bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi ternyata juga sangat dipengaruhi oleh faktor– faktor endogenous seperti faktor institusional (laksono, 2010). sejahtera atau tidaknya perekonomian suatu negara seringkali ditentukan oleh tingkat kondusifitas bagi para pelaku ekonomi untuk menentukan keputusan-keputusan ekonomi dalam menciptakan pilihan– pilihan yang rasional dan efisien. dengan kata lain sistem ekonomi yang berlaku mempunyai andil yang besar dalam menentukan seberapa cepat perekonomian di suatu negara dapat tumbuh. sistem ekonomi dalam hal ini yang dimaksud ialah economic freedom atau biasa yang disebut kebebasan ekonomi. keterbukaan suatu negara bisa terwakili salah satunya adalah dengan melihat indeks kebebasan ekonomi di suatu negara. keterbukaan dan kebebasan ekonomi memang menjadi isu yang banyak diperbincangkan dewasa ini. menurut gwartney (2007), semakin tinggi tingkat kebebasan ekonomi di suatu negara, semakin tinggi pula kemakmuran negara tersebut. indeks kebebasan ekonomi terdiri dari 10 komponen penyusunnya yaitu property rights, jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015: 158-176 160 freedom from corruption, fiscal freedom, government spending, business freedom atau regulatory freedom, labor freedom, monetary freedom, trade freedom, investment freedom dan financial freedom. setiap faktor penyusunan kebebasan ekonomi memiliki nilai atau skor pada skala 0 hingga 100. semakin tinggi skor menunjukkan bahwa semakin tinggi tingkat kebebasan ekonomi di suatu negara. menurut miller (2012) 10 kebebasan ekonomi ini dikelompokkan menjadi empat kategori besar atau pilar dari kebebasan ekonomi, yaitu rule of law, limited government, regulatory efficiency, dan open markets. saat ini banyak sekali indeks-indeks yang dikeluarkan di tingkat global. namun, index economic freedom memiliki keunggulan yang lebih dibandingkan indeks lainnya. indeks kebebasan ekonomi merupakan aspek paling fundamental untuk mencapai kesejahteraan. william easterly juga mengatakan bahwa kebebasan ekonomi akan menyuburkan persaingan, memberikan umpan balik kepada pasar, merelokasikan sumber daya yang efisien, memungkinkan berhasilnya kegiatan ekonomi berskala besar dan memungkinkan terciptanya kontrak yang canggih antara individu dan perusahaan di tengah ketidakpastian. dengan kata lain, kebebasan ekonomi adalah pupuk yang ampuh untuk pertumbuhan (viva news, 2010). selain itu, di era globalisasi dan demokrasi saat ini, adanya indeks kebebasan ekonomi menjadi peran penting untuk mencapai adanya kebebasan yang diinginkan di setiap negara. studi mengenai economic freedom masih jarang dan sedikit sehingga masih banyak yang belum memahami mengenai economic freedom. padahal beberapa studi menunjukkan bahwa kebebasan ekonomi berpengaruh positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. berlandaskan teori-teori diatas maka kebenaran akan hipotesis economic freedom yang dapat mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi adalah sangat menarik untuk diteliti lebih lanjut pada kasus negara sedang berkembang. sebagian besar negara-negara di asia merupakan negara yang sedang berada pada tahap awal pembangunan menuju perekonomian modern yang terintegrasi dengan ekonomi global. sehingga melalui indeks kebebasan ekonomi ini dapat mendukung persaingan internasional dengan melepaskan hambatan-hambatan yang ada untuk berada di posisi terdepan dalam kemajuan dan globalisasi. namun demikian, beberapa negara di asia, seperti jepang, china, korea selatan dan singapura termasuk negara berpendapatan tinggi di dunia karena memiliki pendapatan per kapita lebih dari $10.000 per tahun. studi ini membahas economic freedom di asia dengan mengelompokkan negara di asia menjadi 2 kelompok yaitu negara berkembang dan negara maju untuk membahas lebih dalam mengenai pengaruh indeks kebebasan ekonomi, fdi dan nilai tukar terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, serta seberapa besar komponen-komponen penyusun kebebasan ekonomi berpengaruh terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. studi ini terdiri dari lima model yang dianalisis, model utama menggunakan variabel indeks kebebasan ekonomi secara keseluruhan, fdi dan kurs. sedangkan untuk melihat seberapa besar komponen penyusun kebebebasan ekonomi terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi ditinjau dari keempat kategori besar atau pilar economic freedom. sehingga dalam studi ini berjudul “analisis pengaruh economic freedom beserta komponennya terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di asia, periode 2001-2012”. metode penelitian kerangka model utama yang digunakan adalah mengukur pertumbuhan ekonomi dengan variabel independent (economic freedom, fdi dan nilai tukar). dalam studi ini menganalisis pengaruh seluruh variabel independen terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi berdasarkan negara maju dan negara berkembang. sehingga masing-masing kelompok negara akan dianalisis berdasarkan kelima kerangka model di bawah ini. gambar 1. kerangka model pengaruh economic freedom terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi pertumbuhan  ekonomi economic  freedom fdi nilai tukar dampak economic freedom ... (agustina suparyati, nurul fadilah) 161 sedangkan untuk mengetahui pengaruh 10 komponen penyusun kebebasan ekonomi terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi ditinjau berdasarkan 4 pilar utama kebebasan ekonomi ialah: 1) rule of law gambar 2. kerangka model pengaruh rule of law terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi 2) limited government gambar 3. kerangka model pengaruh limited government terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi 3) regulatory efficiency gambar 4. kerangka model pengaruh regulatory efficiency terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi 4) open markets gambar 5. kerangka model pengaruh open markets terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi studi ini menggunakan data kuantitatif tahunan pada rentang waktu antara tahun 2001-2012. data dalam studi ini adalah data pertumbuhan ekonomi (growth %), indeks kebebasan ekonomi (index of economic freedom), fdi dan nilai tukar dari negara maju di asia (jepang, cina, korea selatan dan singapuran) dan negara berkembang di asia (indonesia, malaysia, laos, thailand, filipina, kamboja dan vietnam. dengan dipisahkan antara negara maju dan berkembang mengharapkan adanya perbedaan pengaruh seluruh variabel independentnya terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di kedua kelompok negara ini. sumber data yang didapat dari masingmasing variabel adalah dari worldbank, sedangkan untuk variabel indeks kebebasan ekonomi di dapat dari the heritage foundation yang telah mengolah data index economic freedom berdasarkan 10 komponen penyusunnya. keseluruhan komponen penyusunnya terdiri dari, regulation freedom, trade freedom, fiscal freedom, government freedom, monetary freedom, investment freedom, financial freedom, property right, labor freedom dan freedom from corruption. labor freedom tidak digunakan dalam analisis studi ini karena keterbatasan data yang didapat. perumusan model pada studi ini terdapat dua kelompok analisa berdasarkan negara maju dan berkembang, di mana masing-masing studi terdapat lima model yang terdiri dari satu model utama dan empat model lainnya. dalam model utama pertumbuhan ekonomi dipengaruhi oleh fdi, nilai tukar dan nilai keseluruhan rata-rata indeks kebebasan ekonomi. sedangkan di keempat model lainnya, pertumbuhan ekonomi dipengaruhi oleh keempat pilar utama kebebasan ekonomi beserta fdi dan kurs. seperti yang telah dijelaskan pada teori di bab sebelumnya, bahwa di setiap pilar utama kebebasan ekonomi terdapat komponen penyusun ekonomi. di mana 10 komponen penyusunnya terbagi di dalam empat pilar tersebut. sehingga dalam perumusan model studi ini ialah: 1. model overall economic freedom : gdpn = 0 + 1.fdiit + 2erit + 3efit + eit 1) pertumbuhan  ekonomi property  rights freedom  from  corruption fdi nilai  tukar pertumbuhan  ekonomi fiscal  freedom government  spending fdi nilai  tukar pertumbuhan  ekonomi business  freedom monetary  freedom fdi nilai  tukar pertumbuhan  ekonomi trade freedom investment  freedom financial  freedom fdi nilai  tukar jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015: 158-176 162 2. model pilar rule of role gdpn = 0 + 1.fdiit + 2erit + 3prit + 4ffcit + eit 2) 3. model pilar limited government gdpn = 0 + 1.fdiit + 2erit + 3ffit + 4gsit + eit 3) 4. model pilar regulatory efficiency gdpn = 0 + 1.fdiit + 2erit + 3bfit + 4mfit + eit 4) 5. model pilar open markets gdpn = 0 + 1.fdiit + 2erit + 3tfit + 4ifit + 5finfit + eit 5) di mana gdpn adalah pertumbuhan ekonomi (gdp growth) negara sedang berkembang dan negara maju di asia pada tahun 2001-2012 (%); fdi adalah foreign direct investment atau investasi asing yang masuk (fdi, net inflows) negara asean 8 tahun 2001-2012 (% of gdp); er adalah exchange rate atau nilai tukar nominal suatu negara dimana local currency per us$ (average); ef adalah economic freedom atau indeks kebebasan ekonomi yang merupakan nilai rata-rata secara keseluruhan (unit); pr: indeks property right atau kebebasan hak milik (unit); ffc adalah indeks freedom from corruption atau kebebasan dari korupsi (unit); ff adalah indeks fiscal freedom atau kebebasan fiskal (unit); gs adalah indeks government spending atau kebebasan pengeluaran pemerintah (unit); bf adalah indeks business/regulation freedom atau kebebasan dalam berbisnis (unit); mf adalah indeks monetary freedom atau kebebasan moneter (unit); tf adalah indeks trade freedom atau kebebasan perdagangan (unit); if adalah indeks investment freedom atau kebebasan berinvestasi (unit); finf adalah indeks financial freedom atau kebebasan financial (unit). hasil dan pembahasan skor pada index economic freedom menyatakan bahwa semakin tinggi nilai indeks kebebasan ekonomi maka menandakan bahwa negara tersebut semakin bebas. sewajarnya negara negara maju akan lebih mendapatkan skor kebebasan ekonomi lebih besar dibandingkan dengan negara berkembang. terlihat secara teori bahwa perekonomian negara maju lebih terbuka dibandingkan dengan negara berkembang.hal ini didukung dengan gambar 1 yang menjelaskan skor kebebasan ekonomi di tahun 2012. sumber: heritage foundation, diolah gambar 6. skor indexeconomic freedom negara maju dan berkembang, 2012 pada tahun 2012 terlihat bahwa indeks kebebasan ekonomi di negara asia, khususnya untuk negara maju seperti jepang, cina, korea selatan dan singapura terlihat skornya lebih bagus dibandingkan negara berkembang lainnya. namun hal ini tidak terlihat pada negara cina, dikarenakan skor economic freedom cina hanya 51,2 berada di bawah negara berkembang seperti thailand sebesar 64,9.sehingga untuk negara maju, jika skornya diurutkan berdasarkan negara terbebas ekonominya yaitu singapura, jepang, korea selatan dan cina. sedangkan untuk negara sedang berkembang menunjukkan bahwa negara malaysia unggul di peringkat pertama negara berkembang dalam studi ini sebesar 66,4 dan indonesia sebesar 56,4. sehingga jika diurutkan berdasarkan kelompok negara sedang berkembang ialah malaysia, thailand, kamboja, filipina, indonesia, vietnam dan laos. skor economic freedomtertinggi dalam studi ini ditempati oleh singapura. nilai keseluruhan rata-rata besarnya indeks kebebasan ekonomi disusun berdasarkan 10 komponennya ialah sebesar 87,50. hal ini juga dibuktikan bahwa singapura menjadi negara di peringkat ke-2 di tahun 2013 dengan skor kebebasan ekonomi 56,4 66,4 64,9 51,3 57,1 50 57,6 71,6 51,2 69,9 87,5 0 50 100 indo… mala… thail… vietn… filipina laos kam… jepang cina korsel singa… dampak economic freedom ... (agustina suparyati, nurul fadilah) 163 tinggi. dengan semakin bebasnya singapura, menjadi tanda bahwa perekonomian singapura juga tinggi. skor economic freedom indonesia hanya mencapai 56,4, hal ini di karenakan dari segi pilar peraturan hukum indonesia rendah. di mana skor kebebasan dari korupsi hanya berkisar rata-rata 25, berada di bawah rata-rata skor dunia. skor untuk kebebasan hak kepemilikan juga tetap berada pada skor 30 di tahun 2001 hingga 2012. sehingga kedua skor ini menjadikan skor kebebasan ekonomi di indonesia rendah dan berada di bawah rata-rata dunia. indonesia sebagai negara masih membutuhkan intervensi pemerintah, terlihat pada masa soeharto tahun 1968-1998. gaya otoriter presiden soeharto selama 31 tahun, pada akhirnya menuntut sebuah perubahan total dan reformasi bagi indonesia. keadaan semuanya diatur oleh negara ternyata memberikan dampak kehidupan sejahtera secara ekonomi bagi rakyatnya. walaupun tidak diberikan hakhak individu untuk menyampaikan pendapat, namun perekonomian yang dicapai pada masa soeharto lebih tinggi dibandingkan saat ini. perkembangan gdp perkapita indonesia pada tahun 1968 hanya us$70 dan pada tahun 1996 telah mencapai lebih darius$1.000, sukses transmigrasi, sukses kb, sukses memerangi buta huruf, pengangguran minimum, sukses gerakan wajib belajar, sukses gerakan orang tua asuh, sukses keamanan dalam negeri, investor asing mau menanamkan modal di indonesia, dan sukses menumbuhkan rasa nasionalisme dan cinta produk dalam negeri (harian pelita, 2013). perkembangan skor kebebasan ekonomi pada tabel 1 menjelaskan bahwa skor kebebasan ekonomi mengalami peningkatan di asia sejak tahun 2001-2012, baik secara skor overall economic freedom maupun. namun, thailand, filipina, kamboja dan cina terlihat skor overall economic freedom sedikit menurun, artinya kebebasan perekonomian dicapai tidak semakin bebas. sedangkan indonesia mengalami pening katan skor secara keseluruhan, bermula 52,5 menjadi 56,4, namun juga terjadi p enurunan skor pada komponen business freedom dan investment freedom. studi ini menggunakan data panel yang merupakan analisis data dengan tiga pendekatan, yaitu pooled least square (common effect), fixed effect dan random effect. ketiga pendekatan tersebut kemudian akan dicari mana yang paling tepat dalam menjelaskan model penelitian ini dengan berbagai pengujian. pengujian pertama pemilihan data panel ialah dengan uji chow, di mana terdapat hipotesis bahwa apabila prob.chi-square statistic < 0,05(α), maka model terpilih adalah fixed effect, lalu dilanjutkan dengan uji hausman, di mana apabila prob.chi-square statistik< 0,05(α), maka model yang digunakan adalah fixed effect. sedangkan jika prob.chi-square statistik> 0,05(α), maka model yang tepat adalah random effect, tetapijika pada uji chow terdapat nilai prob.chisquare statistik> 0,05(α), maka modelterpilih common effect, selanjutnya dilakukan pengujian lm test. hasilnya menunjukkan prob.chi-square statistik< 0,05 (α), maka model yang layak digunakan adalah random effect, tetapi jika prob.chi-square statistik> 0,05 (α), maka model yang tepat adalah common effect. nilai probabilitas dari masing-masing uji pemilihan regresi panel untuk negara maju adalah berbeda-bedasehingga berdasarkan tabel 1 menunjukkan bahwa setiap model pada studi ini menggunakan metode panel yang berbeda. pada model pertama sampai dengan model keempat menggunakan common effect model dan model kelima ialah fixed effect. nilai probabilitas dari masing-masing uji pemilihan regresi panel untuk negara berkembang adalah berbeda-beda, sehingga berdasartabel 1. hasil pemilihan model regresi panel negara maju model chowtest lm test hausman test hasil akhir model1 0,0558 0,5058 common effect model2 0,2964 0,1915 common effect model3 0,0834 0,2509 common effect model4 0,0878 0,3948 common effect model5 0,0128 0,0112 fixed effect jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015: 158-176 164 kan tabel 2 menunjukkan bahwa setiap model pada studi ini menggunakan metode panel yang berbeda. pada model pertama dan model keempat menggunakan random effect, sedangkan untuk model kedua cocok menggunakan common effectdan model ketiga dan kelima ialah fixed effect. tujuan utama dalam studi ini untuk mengetahui perbedaan pengaruh dari economic freedom atau kebebasan ekonomi beserta 10 komponennya terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di negara-negara asia. economic freedom dikelompokkan menjadi empat pilar utamanya, yaitu pilar rule of law, limited government, regulatory efficiency, dan open markets. dalam studi ini negaranegara di asia akan di kelompokkan menjadi 2 kelompok yaitu kelompok negara maju seperti jepang, cina, korea selatan dan singapura, dan juga negara sedang berkembang seperti indonesia, malaysia, thailand, vietnam, filipina, laos dan kamboja. hasil regresi panel untuk negara berkembang di asia yaitu indonesia, malaysia, thailand, vietnam, filipina, laos dan kamboja yang dikelompokkan menunjukkan bahwa bahwa hanya terdapat empat variabel penyusun economic freedom yang terbukti secara statistik berpengaruh nyata terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi (growth) pada taraf nyata = 5% maupun dalam batas toleransi  = 10%, sisanya tidak terbukti berpengaruh terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. kempat variabel tersebut adalah property right, business freedom, trade freedom dan financial freedom, sementara itu lainnya terbukti tidak berpengaruh nyata terhadap growth. pembahasan lebih lanjut mengenai hasil studi ini akan dikelompokkan berdasarkan lima model yang telah diolah. model economic freedom overall model ini merupakan model yang berasal dari nilai rata-rata keseluruhan economic freedom dari tahun 2001-2012 yang dinilai dari skor keseluruhan indeks economic freedom terhadap pertabel 2. hasil pemilihan model regresi panel negara berkembang model chowtest lm test hausman test hasil akhir model1 0,0279 0,1589 random effect model2 0,2116 0,7416 common effect model3 0,0016 -1,36 fixed effect model4 0,0296 14,88 random effect model5 0,0099 0,0000 fixed effect tabel 3. ringkasan hasil koefisien fdi, nilai tukar dan economic freedom beserta komponen penyusunnya terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di 7 negara sedang berkembang di asia vari. model1 (re) model2 (ce) model3 (fe) model4 (re) model5 (fe) c 8,67* 6,98* 11,09 7,68* 9,33* fdi 0,32* 0,32* 0,23* 0,37* 0,28* er -6,36* -6,23* -7,76* -5,60** -7,52* ef -0,06** pr -0,04* ffc -0,02 ff -0,02 gs -0,04 bf -0,08* mf 0,02 tf -0,11* if 0,007 finf 0,07* adj. r2 0,24 0,26 0,09 0,27 0,19 prob f 0,003 0 0,06 0 0,0005 keterangan : *signifikan pada level 5%; **signifikan pada level 10% dampak economic freedom ... (agustina suparyati, nurul fadilah) 165 tumbuhan ekonomi. model pertama ini terdapat tiga variabel independen terdiri dari economic freedom, nilai tukar, dan fdi. nilai prob pada setiap variabel terbukti signifikan, maka dapat dikatakan bahwa seluruh variabel berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. berdasarkan teori yang telah dijelaskan pada bab sebelumnya, hasil pengolahan ini menunjukkan bahwa tidak seluruh variabel sesuai dengan hipotesis yang telah ditetapkan. di mana terlihat bahwa economic freedom memiliki pengaruh yang negatif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. berdasarkan hasil pengolahan didapatkan nilai dari adj.r2 sebesar 0,2436. hal ini menunjukkan kemampuan dari seluruh variabel independen dalam menjelaskan variasi dari variabel dependen sebesar 24,36% dan sisanya 75,64% dijelaskan oleh variabel independen lain diluar model. sehingga dapat dikatakan bahwa model ini tidak goodness of fit. sedangkan jika dilihat dari nilai prob.f statistik sebesar 0,003, artinya variabel-variabel independen dalam model secara bersama-sama berpengaruh nyata terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. pada studi ini variabel economic freedom berpengaruh signifikan dan tanda koefisien regresi yang tidak sesuai dengan hipotessis. setiap 1 satuan kenaikan index economy freedom, pertumbuhan ekonomi akan menurun sebesar 0,06%. studi ini menunjukkan pengaruh yang berbeda, dengan asumsi bahwa negara-negara yang dimasukkan ke dalam studi ini ialah negara berkembang. sehingga negara yang baru dibangun pasti membutuhkan intervensi pemerintah yang tinggi, namun ketika dewasa intervensi pemerintah yang dibutuhkan menurun. asean menjadi negara yang masih membutuhkan intervensi pemerintah karena masih menjadi negara yang masih dalam tahapan, sehingga belum siap untuk menerima kebebasan ekonomi. variabel fdi terbukti berpengaruh signifikan dengan koefisien sebesar 0,3297205 artinya, jika fdi naik sebesar 1% maka pertumbuhan ekonomi akan naik sebesar 0,3%. pada kasus ini fdi dapat mendorong pembangunan karena bagi negara tuan rumah atau perusahaan lokal yang menerima investasi itu akan menjadi sumber tumbuhnya teknologi, proses, produk, dan ketrampilan manajemen yang baru. selain itu juga akan membuka pasar dan jalur pemasaran yang baru bagi perusahaan, fasilitas produksi yang lebih murah dan akses pada teknologi, produk, keterampilan, dan pendanaan yang baru. maka, dengan semakin meningkatnya fdi yang masuk menyebabkan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tinggi.sehingga dalam hal ini berpengaruh positif. nilai tukar juga merupakan variabel eksternal yang ikut mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi. dalam studi ini, nilai tukar secara signifikan berpengaruh negatif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. hal ini dapat dibuktikan dengan besarnya nilai koefisien nilai tukar sebesar -6,364055 artinya apabila nilai tukar mengalami depresiasi sebesar 1% maka pertumbuhan ekonomi akan menurun sebesar 6,3%. ketika mata uang domestik depresiasi, maka barang-barang domestik terlihat lebih murah dibandingkan barang luar negeri.hal ini membuat ekspor meningkat atau impor mengalami penurunan. dengan asumsi bahan baku berasal dari impor maka apabila impor menurun menyebabkan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang semakin berkurang, sesuai pada hubungan yang telah dijelaskan sebelumnya. kondisi ini terbukti untuk kasus indonesia. dampak negatif depresiasi rupiah membuat harga produkproduk olahan industri di indonesia melambung tinggi, karena bahan baku dibeli dengan dolar as. masalah utama, sebagian besar industri nasional masih bergantung pada bahan baku impor. bahkan, ketergantungan itu amat tinggi (tubas media, 2013). pasalnya, tanpa bahan baku impor pabrik-pabrik dimaksud tidak akan dapat lagi berproduksi. dampak negatifnya, terjadi pemutusan hubungan kerja (phk) karyawan dan masyarakat, sebagai konsumen, kesulitan menemukan produkproduk olahan di pasar, pada akhirnya berdampak pada kesejahteraan masyarakat sehingga menurunnya pertumbuhan ekonomi. model pilar rule of law model kedua menganalisis pengaruh komponen penyusun economic freedom ditinjau dari pilar rule of role terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. pilar ini terdiri dari dua komponen penyusunnya, terdiri dari property rights dan freedom from corruption. sehingga pada model jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015: 158-176 166 kedua ini terdapat empat variabel independen yang terdiri dua komponen penyusun economic freedom, nilai tukar, dan fdi. pada pengolahan dalam model kedua menerangkan bahwa seluruh faktor penduga yang mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi ternyata memang berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, kecuali unutk variabel freedom from corruption. namun dalam kenyataannya, terdapat ketidak sesuaian hipotesis yang terjadi, varibel property right eharusnya secara nyata berpengaruh positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, malah sebaliknya berpengaruh negatif. berdasarkan tabel 3 nilai adjusted r-square sebesar 0,663. hal ini menunjukan kemampuan dari seluruh variabel independen dalam menjelaskan variasi dari variabel dependen sebesar 26,63% dan sisanya 73.37% dijelaskan oleh variabel independen lain di luar model. sehingga dapat dikatakan bahwa model ini tidak goodness of fit. sedangkan jika dilihat dari nilai prob. f statistik sebesar 0,000, artinya variabelvariabel independen dalam model secara bersama-sama berpengaruh nyata terhadap perumbuhan ekonomi. pada model pertama bahwa fdi dan nilai tukar berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. hal ini juga didukung oleh hubungan pengaruhnya yang sesuai hipotesis, model ini menyatakan bahwa fdi terbukti berpengaruh signifikan dengan koefisien sebesar 0,32788 artinya jika fdi naik sebesar 1% maka pertumbuhan ekonomi akan naik sebesar 0,32%. sedangkan nilai tukar memiliki nilai koefisien sebesar -6.23005 artinya apabila nilai tukar mengalami depresiasi sebesar 1% maka pertumbuhan ekonomi akan menurun sebesar 6.2%. property rights sebagai komponen penyusun economic freedom juga memiliki tanda yang tidak sesuai dengan hipotesis yang diinginkan. variabel property right terbukti signifikan, namun tidak sesuai dengan hipotesis. semakin dijaminnya property right oleh pemerintah, membuat perekonomian semakin menutrusrun, sehingga hal ini memberikan dampak negatif bagi pertumbuhan ekonomi. setiap 1 satuan kenaikan indeks property right, pertumbuhan ekonomi akan menurun sebesar 0,04%. hubungan antara property kan negatif karena pada studi kali menggunakan negaranegara berkembang, sedangkan memang terdapat masalah yang serius mengenai status hak kepemilikan pribadi pada negara-negara berkembang, contohnya seperti sistem hukum dan kebijakan-kebijakan yang ada tidak dilakukan dengan adil. sehingga banyak penyimpangan yang terjadi dan dapat menghambat pertumbuhan ekonomi. dengan semakin berkembangnya teknologi, informasi dapat dengan mudah dan cepat tersebar di seluruh pelosok dunia. sehingga mudah diakses masyarakat. pada nyatanya, hal ini membuat banyak terjadi pelanggaran mengenai hasil karya intelektual di indonesia. kasus-kasus pelanggaran hak kekayaan intelektual ini seperti pembajakan berbagai karya-karya cipta, pemalsuan merek dan lain sebagainya, di mana menunjukkan bahwa semakin hari semakin tinggi baik secara kuantitas maupun kualitas. anehnya, sangat jarang kasus-kasus pelanggaran tersebut yang sampai dinaikkan ke pengadilan. padahal, kasus-kasus pelanggaran hak kekayaan intelektual itu dapat ditemui dengan mudah di hampir setiap sudut kota di indonesia (syafrinaldi, 2008). maka dapat disimpulkan bahwa penegakan hak kekayaan intelektual di indonesia benar-benar mendapat perhatian yang serius. hukum yang diharapkan mampu melindungi serta mengatasi berbagai permasalahan yang timbul berkaitan dengan hak kekayaan intelektual tersebut belum terlaksana dengan efektif. pada dasarnya indonesia telah ikut sebagai anggota wto yang mengharuskan indonesia menyesuaikan segala peraturan perundangannya di bidang hak kekayaan intelektual dengan standar trip’s (trade related aspects of intellectual propert rights) yang dimulai sejak tahun 1997. selain itu, di indonesia instansi yang berwenang dalam mengelola hak kekayaan intelektual adalah direktorat jendral hak kekayaan intelektual (ditjen. hki) yang berada dibawah departemen kehakiman dan ham republik indonesia (dwi handoko, 2009). variabel freedom from corruption merupakan salah satu komponen penyusun economic freedom yang tidak terbukti berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi dan juga dengan tanda koefisien regresi yang tidak sesuai dengan hipotesis. oleh karena itu, dalam dampak economic freedom ... (agustina suparyati, nurul fadilah) 167 studi ini dapat mengartikan bahwa variabel freedom from corruption tidak dapat dijelaskan lebih lanjut. namun survei transparancy international memperlihatkan, indonesia berada di peringkat di atas level 100. malaysia berada di peringkat 52 dan thailand peringkat 88. sedangkan filipina, indonesia, vietnam, kamboja, laos, dan myanmar berada pada peringkat di atas 100, secara berurutan berada pada peringkat 105, 114, 123, 157, 160, dan 172 (transparency, 2013). praktek korupsi terjadi di setiap level pemerintahan, baik di tingkat nasional maupun di tingkat lokal, bahkan terjadi pula di sektor swasta. bukannya menurun, praktek korupsi justru cenderung meningkat dari waktu ke waktu. padahal, berbagai bentuk kebijakan dan program anti korupsi sudah dilakukan oleh masing-masing negara. pemberantasan korupsi di indonesia ternyata belum menunjukkan hasil yang memuaskan. ini terlihat dari indeks korupsi indonesia masih menduduki rangking bawah, bahkan di asean, indonesia berada di bawah filipina dan hanya sedikit di atas vietnam dan myanmar. hukuman ringan menjadi penyebab utama para koruptor untuk tetap menjalankan aksi korupsi. hukum yang ada belum mampu bekerja maksimal, bahkan hukum saat ini bisa dibeli. dengan skor yang diterima indonesia menunjukkan indonesia belum bisa dapat keluar dari situasi korupsi yang sudah mengakar. banyak kasus korupsi yang terjadi di indonesia yang sampai saat ini belum selesai dan bahkan dilupakan seiring berjalannya waktu. model pilar limited government model ketiga menganalisis pengaruh komponen penyusun economic freedom ditinjau dari pilar limited government terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. pilar ini terdiri dari dua komponen penyusunnya, terdiri dari fiscal freedom dan government spending. sehingga pada model ketiga ini terdapat empat variabel independen yang terdiri dua komponen penyusun economic freedom, nilai tukar, dan fdi. berbeda dengan pengolahan pada model sebelumnya, di model ketiga ini hasil terbaik yaitu menggunakan fixed effect. nilai signifikansi maupun adj.r2 yang ditampilkan cukup berbeda, yaitu sangat kecil dan nilainya tidak mencapai 10%, artinya bahwa kemampuan dari seluruh variabel independent untuk menjelaskan variabel pertumbuhan ekonomi hanya sebesar 9%, dan sisanya 91% dijelaskan oleh variabel lain yang tidak dimasukkan kedalam model. hal ini juga terlihat dengan nilai signifikansi variabel fiscal freedom dan government spending tidak berpengaruh signifikan untuk mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi. sedangkan untuk nilai prob.fstatistic yang terjadi pada model ketiga ini ialah sebesar 0,0626, artinya variabel-variabel independen dalam model secara bersama-sama tidak berpengaruh nyata terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. variabel fdi dan nilai tukar berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi.hal ini juga didukung oleh hubungan pengaruhnya yang sesuai hipotesis. sehingga pada model ini menyatakan bahwa fdi terbukti berpengaruh signifikan dengan koefisien sebesar 0,23938 artinya, jika fdi naik sebesar 1% maka pertumbuhan ekonomi akan naik sebesar 0,23%. sedangkan nilai tukar memiliki nilai koefisien sebesar -7,76632 artinya apabila nilai tukar mengalami depresiasi sebesar 1% maka pertumbuhan ekonomi akan menurun sebesar 7,7%. variabel fiscal freedom yang dimaksud dalam studi ini merupakan kebebasan yang dilihat dari sisi pemerintah. skor fiscal freedom dilihat dari seberapa besar pajak yang diterima pemerintah, di mana dengan semakin meningkatnya skor ini menandakan bahwa pajak pada negara tersebut rendah. namun dalam hal ini, pajak merupakan suatu pendapatan negara yang digunakan sebagai anggaran negara dengan tujuan pembangunan perekonomiannya agar berjalan dengan baik. oleh karena itu, dengan semakin rendahnya pajak yang diterima negara membuat semakin rendahnya anggaran pemerintah dan tidak baik bagi pembangunan suatu negara apalagi negara berkembang. government spending juga tidak menunjukkan signifikan dan memiliki ketidaksesuaian hipotesis yang ada. variabel ini menunjukkan ekonomi pasar yang baik tidak akan dapat berjalan tanpa intervensi pemerintah sama sekali. sehingga juga dibutuhkan intervensi pemerintah untuk memberikan kebijakan yang efektif. apalagi dalam hal ini, studi yang dipakai adalah untuk studi kasus negara berkem jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015: 158-176 168 bang, sehingga masih membutuhkan peran pemerintah demi tercapainya pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tinggi. model pilar regulatory efficiency model urutan keempat yang menganalisis pengaruh komponen penyusun economic freedom ditinjau dari pilar regulatory efficiency terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. pilar ini terdiri dari dua komponen penyusunnya, terdiri dari business freedom dan monetary freedom. sehingga pada model keempat ini terdapat empat variabel independen yang terdiri dua komponen penyusun economic freedom, nilai tukar, dan fdi. berdasarkan tabel 4, model yang paling tepat ialah random effect. terdapat satu variabel terbukti tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, yaitu monetary freedom. sedangkan untuk variabel lainnya terbukti signifikan.berdasarkan hasil pengolahan didapatkan nilai dari adjusted r-square sebesar 0,2774. hal ini menunjukan kemampuan dari seluruh variabel independen dalam menjelaskan variasi dari variabel dependen sebesar 27,74% dan sisanya 72,26% dijelaskan oleh variabel-variabel independen lain di luar model. sehingga dapat dikatakan bahwa model ini tidak goodness of fit. sedangkan jika dilihat dari nilai prob.f statistik sebesar 0,000, artinya variabel-variabel independen dalam model secara bersama-sama berpengaruh nyata terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. variabel fdi dan nilai tukar tetap berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi dan sesuai tanda. sehingga pada model ini menyatakan bahwa fdi terbukti berpengaruh signifikan dengan koefisien sebesar 0,37626, artinya jika fdi naik sebesar 1% maka pertumbuhan ekonomi akan naik sebesar 0,37%. sedangkan nilai tukar memiliki nilai koefisien sebesar -5,60462 artinya apabila nilai tukar mengalami depresiasi sebesar 1% maka pertumbuhan ekonomi akan menurun sebesar 5,6%. business freedom atau regulatory freedom terbukti signifikan. namun keadaan ini tidak didukung dengan kesesuaian hipotesis yang ada. negara-negara yang diuji dalam studi ini justru memberikan dampak negatif apabila regulasi dalam berbisnis dimudahkan membuat pasar antar negara semakin tidak ada batasnya dan persaingan semakin meningkat. hal ini justru membuat pasar domestik menjadi lemah ataupun menurun, dikarenakan domestik belum mampu bersaing dengan pasar global. sehingga apabila regulasi untuk mendirikan bisnis semakin bebas dan mudah, akan membuat banyak persaingan dan menjadi kalah dalam bersaing. studi ini menunjukkan nilai koefisiensi sebesar -0,08131, mengartikan bahwa apabila business freedom naik sebesar 1 satuan, maka akan menyebabkan pertumbuhan ekonomi turun sebesar 0,08%. laporan tahunan survei daya saing "doing business" bank dunia, memperingkat seberapa mudah atau sulitnya memulai dan menjalankan bisnis di 189 negara, menempatkan indonesia pada peringkat 120 untuk kemudahan menjalankan bisnis. indonesia kalah bersaing dari sesama negara lainnya, yaitu malaysia peringkat 6, thailand 18, brunei darussalam 59, vietnam 99 dan filipina 108. indonesia hanya lebih baik dari kamboja yang berada pada peringkat 137 (antara, 2013). monetary freedom terbukti tidak berpengaruh signifikan, namun jika dilihat dari kesesuaian uji tanda pada hipotesis yang ada, menunjukkan bahwa variabel ini sesuai berpengaruh positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. sesuai hipotesis pada bab sebelumnya bahwa dengan skormonetary freedom yang tinggi menandakan bahwa kondisi harga dan nilai tukar yang stabil sehingga membuat pertumbuhan ekonomi meningkat. model pilar open markets model urutan kelima menganalisis pengaruh komponen penyusun economic freedom ditinjau dari pilar open markets terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. pilar ini terdiri dari tiga komponen penyusunnya, terdiri dari trade freedom, financial freedom, investment freedom. sehingga pada model kelima ini terdapat lima variabel independen yang terdiri tiga komponen penyusun economic freedom, nilai tukar, dan fdi. berdasarkan tabel 4, pada model kelima ini menunjukkan bahwa hanya terdapat satu variabel terbukti tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, yaitu investment freedom. sedangkan untuk varibel lainnya terbukti signifikan. nilai adjusted r-square dampak economic freedom ... (agustina suparyati, nurul fadilah) 169 sebesar 0,1926, menunjukan kemampuan dari seluruh variabel independen dalam menjelaskan variasi dari variabel dependen hanya sebesar 19,26% dan sisanya 80,74% dijelaskan oleh variabel-variabel independen lain diluar model. sehingga dapat dikatakan bahwa model ini tidak goodness of fit. sedangkan jika dilihat dari nilai prob.f statistik sebesar 0,0005, artinya variabel-variabel independen dalam model secara bersama-sama berpengaruh nyata terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. fdi terbukti berpengaruh signifikan dengan koefisien sebesar 0,288688, artinya jika fdi naik sebesar 1% maka pertumbuhan ekonomi akan naik sebesar 0,28%. sedangkan nilai tukar memiliki nilai koefisien sebesar -7,52358 artinya apabila nilai tukar mengalami depresiasi sebesar 1% maka pertumbuhan ekonomi akan menurun sebesar 7,52%. dapat disimpulkan bahwa kelima model yang diolah terlihat bahwa variabel fdi dan nilai tukar terbukti berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. karena kedua variabel ini merupakan variabel klasik yang memang sering diuji kebenarannya bahwa ada pengaruh antara kedua variabel ini terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. trade freedom terbukti signifikan, namun keadaannya tidak didukung dengan kesesuaian hipotesis yang ada. studi ini menunjukkan perdagangan yang semakin global pada negaranegara berkembang membuat pertumbuhan ekonominya menurun. secara statistik menyatakan bahwa trade freedom terbukti berpengaruh signifikan dengan koefisien sebesar -0,11494, artinya jika trade freedom naik sebesar 1 satuan maka pertumbuhan ekonomi akan turun sebesar 0,11%. hal ini dikarenakan negara berkembang belum mampu untuk bersaing dengan negara-negara maju, akibat kekalahan dalam persaingan menyebabkan pabrik yang bangkrut karena tidak kuat dengan persaingan yang begitu ketat. bagi negara yang masih dalam tahapan berkembang maka akan menjadi sebuah kerugian karena selalu mengandalkan negara lain untuk terus mengimpor barang-barang kedalam negeri, yang kemudian membuat negara ini untuk menjadi negara maju karena terus “diserang” oleh barang–barang impor. juga sebaliknya, akan menjadi keuntungan tersendiri bagi negara yang telah berkembang untuk terus menjual produknya ini sehingga produknya lebih diminati dan lebih popular di luar negeri. adanya eksploitasi terhadap masyarakat ekonomi lemah oleh pihak yang kuat ekonominya, menimbulkan terjadinya monopoli sehingga merugikan masyarakat, munculnya kesenjangan ekonomi antara golongan ekonomi kuat dengan golongan ekonomi lemah, perekonomian dapat dengan mudah menjadi tidak stabil. kasus perdagangan internasional asean dengan cina menjadi contoh dalam masalah ini.perekonomian china yang begitu kuat terfokus pada ekspor menjadi tantangan bagi asean, khususnya indonesia.masyarakat memandang acfta sebagai ancaman, karena berpotensi membangkrutkan banyak perusahaan dalam negeri. perusahaan yang diperkirakan akan mengalami kebangkrutan tersebut adalah tekstil, mainan anak-anak, furniture, keramik dan elektronik. bangkrutnya perusahan tersebut disebabkan karena ketidaksiapan para pelaku bisnis indonesia, terutama bisnis menengah dan kecil dalam bersaing. pemikiran tersebut didasarkan pada kondisi yang terjadi saat ini, di mana berbagai produk dari china telah membanjiri pasar indonesia. produk dari china yang masuk ke indonesia sangat bervariasi dan memiliki harga yang relatif murah. variabel lainnya yang terbukti berpengaruh signifikan adalah variabel financial freedom. variabel financial freedom memiliki kesesuaian uji tanda pada hipotesis yang ada dan menunjukkan bahwa variabel ini berpengaruh positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. hal ini dapat dinyatakan secara statistik bahwa dengan naiknya financial freedom sebesar 1 satuan maka pertumbuhan ekonomi akan naik sebesar 0,07%. dengan semakin meningkatnya skor financial freedom, menandakan bahwa sistem keuangan semakin bebas dan menciptakan sistem intermediasi keuangan yang efisien. lingkungan perbankan yang terbuka dan bebas mendorong perekonomian dengan terciptanya sistem keuangan yang efisien. intermediasi perbankan lebih baik dan sistem keuangan semakin bebas menyebabkan masyarakat bisa lebih mudah berinvestasi. semakin banyak masyarakat mendapat permodalan keuangan maka semakin efisien sistem keuangan menyebabkan kewirausahaan dan bisnis dapat berkembang. sehingga perkem jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015: 158-176 170 bangan bisnis dalam berbagai sektor dapat meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi. menjelang diberlakukannya masyarakat ekonomi asean (mea) bidang keuangan dan perbankan pada 2020 mendatang,perbankan nasional diminta untuk lebih efisien dalam berbisnis agar tidak tersingkir dengan jasa perbankan lain, terutama bank-bank asing, terlebih di antara negara-negara anggota asean. indonesia merupakan negara dengan liberalisasi perbankan terbesar. bi menggunakan rasio biaya operasional dibanding pendapatan operasional (bopo) untuk mengukur efisiensi. saat ini, rata-rata bopo perbankan indonesia masih 72,9%. hampir sama dengan malaysia 73%, thailand 75%. sementara itu, singapura 69,4%, vietnam 87,7% dan filipina 88,4 persen (jurnas, 2013). tingginya bopo menunjukkan bank itu tidak efisien dan boros. selain itu, terdapat satu komponen penyusun economic freedom lainnya, yaitu investment freedom terbukti tidak signifikan. namun jika dapat dikaitkan dengan uji kebenaran hipotesis yang ada, investment freedom memiliki uji tanda sesuai teori. variabel ini berpengaruh positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi.skorinvestment freedom yang tinggi memperlihatkan bahwa terciptanya investasi bebas dan terbuka, sehingga semakin mudah berinvestasi, pada akhirnya akan berdampak pada pertumbuhan ekonomi yang semakin meningkat. hasil regresi untuk negara maju hasil regresi panel yang didapat berdasarkan negara jepang, cina, korea selatan dan singapura yang dikelompokkan sebagai negara maju sebagai berikut: bahwa hasil pengolahan data dengan stata, tabel 4 menunjukkan bahwa hanya terdapat dua variabel penyusun economic freedom yang terbukti secara statistik tidak berpengaruh nyata terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi (growth). terdapat variabel trade freedom dan investment freedom. sedangkan variabel lainnya terbukti berpengaruh nyata terhadap growth pada taraf nyata 5% maupun dalam batas toleransi 10%. pembahasan lebih lanjut mengenai hasil studi ini akan dikelompokkan berdasarkan lima model yang telah diolah. model economic freedom overall dalam model ini, nilai prob pada setiap variabel terbukti signifikan, kecuali pada variabel nilai tukar. sehingga tidak seluruh variabel berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. berdasarkan teori yang telah dijelaskan pada bab sebelumnya, hasil pengolahan ini menunjukkan bahwa tidak seluruh variabel sesuai dengan hipotesis yang telah ditetapkan. di mana terlihat bahwa economic freedom memiliki pengaruh yang negatif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. berdasarkan hasil pengolahan didapatkan nilai dari adj.r2 sebesar 0,6062. hal ini menuntabel 4. ringkasan hasil koefisien fdi, nilai tukar dan economic freedombeserta komponen penyusunnya terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di 4 negara maju var model1 (ce) model2 (ce) model3 (ce) model4 (ce) model5 (fe) c 25,35* 13,90* 22,45* 33,92* 1,52* fdi 0,48* 0,45* 0,381* 0,337* 0,38* er -5,87 -9,65** -6,196 -4,596 -7,57 ef -0,33* pr -0,04** ffc -0,142* ff -0,506* gs 0,231* bf -0,146* mf -0,228* tf -0,004 if 0,093 finf -0,081** adj, r2 0,6062 0,6534 0,6073 0,6129 0,0325 prob f 0 0 0 0 0,0142 keterangan : *= signifikan pada level 5; ** : signifikan pada level 10% dampak economic freedom ... (agustina suparyati, nurul fadilah) 171 jukkan kemampuan dari seluruh variabel independen dalam menjelaskan variasi dari variabel dependen sebesar 60,62% dan sisanya 38,38% dijelaskan oleh variabel independen lain diluar model. sehingga dapat dikatakan bahwa model ini tidak goodness of fit. sedangkan jika dilihat dari nilai prob.f statistik sebesar 0,000, artinya variabel-variabel independen dalam model secara bersama-sama berpengaruh nyata terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. pada studi ini variabel economic freedom berpengaruh signifikan dan tanda koefisien regresi yang tidak sesuai dengan hipotesa. setiap 1 satuan kenaikan index economy freedom, pertumbuhan ekonomi akan menurun sebesar 0.33%. sama halnya dengan negara berkembang, dalam negara maju ternyata economic freedom tetap berpengaruh negatif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. padahal dalam negara maju di studi ini terlihat bahwa ketiga negara yaitu jepang, korea selatan dan singapura sudah berada pada negara bebas. bahkan singapura menjadi negara rangking kedua dengan tingkat economic freedom di tahun 2013, artinya singapura menjadi negara kedua paling bebas di seluruh dunia. namun untuk negara cina skornya masih berada di bawah dibandingkan negara berkembang studi ini. variabel fdi terbukti berpengaruh signifikan dengan koefisien sebesar 0,481919 artinya, jika fdi naik sebesar 1% maka pertumbuhan ekonomi akan naik sebesar 0,48%. pada kasus ini fdi dapat mendorong pembangunan dari segi bisnis. seperti yang telah dijelaskan pada bagian teori di bab sebelumnya, bahwa fdi berpengaruh positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. maka, dengan semakin meningkatnya fdi yang masuk menyebabkan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tinggi. nilai tukar juga merupakan variabel eksternal yang ikut mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi. dalam studi ini, nilai tukar tidak berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. oleh karena itu, variabel ini tidak dapat dijelaskan lebih lanjut tentang bagaimana hubungannya terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. model pilar rule of law model kedua ini terlihat bahwa model terbaik yang terpilih yaitu common effect. pada pengolahan dalam model kedua menerangkan bahwa seluruh faktor penduga yang mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi ternyata memang berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. namun dalam kenyataannya, terdapat ketidak sesuaian hipotesis yang terjadi, varibel property right dan freedom from corruption seharusnya secara nyata berpengaruh positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, malah sebaliknya berpengaruh negatif. berdasarkan tabel 4 nilai adjusted r-square sebesar 65,34. hal ini menunjukan kemampuan dari seluruh variabel independen dalam menjelaskan variasi dari variabel dependen sebesar 65,34% dan sisanya 34,66% dijelaskan oleh variabel independen lain di luar model. sehingga dapat dikatakan bahwa model ini tidak goodness of fit. sedangkan jika dilihat dari nilai prob.f statistik sebesar 0,000, artinya variabelvariabel independen dalam model secara bersama-sama berpengaruh nyata terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. dalam model ini, terlihat bahwa seluruh variabel terbukti secara statistik berpengaruh nyata terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi baik pada taraf 5% ataupun 10%. hal ini juga didukung oleh hubungan pengaruhnya yang sesuai hipotesis, kecuali untuk variabel komponen penyusun economic freedom. model ini menyatakan bahwa fdi terbukti berpengaruh signifikan dengan koefisien sebesar 0,45020 artinya jika fdi naik sebesar 1% maka pertumbuhan ekonomi akan naik sebesar 0,45%. sedangkan nilai tukar memiliki nilai koefisien sebesar -9.65165 artinya apabila nilai tukar mengalami depresiasi sebesar 1% maka pertumbuhan ekonomi akan menurun sebesar 9,65%. property rights sebagai komponen penyusun economic freedom juga memiliki tanda yang tidak sesuai dengan hipotesis yang diinginkan. variabel property right terbukti signifikan, namun tidak sesuai dengan hipotesis. semakin dijaminnya property right oleh pemerintah, membuat perekonomian semakin menurun. sehingga hal ini memberikan dampak negatif bagi pertumbuhan ekonomi. setiap 1 satuan kenaikan indeks property right, pertumbuhan ekonomi akan menurun sebesar 0,04%. variabel freedom from corruption juga jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015: 158-176 172 merupakan salah satu komponen penyusun economic freedom yang berpengaruh signifikan dan dengan tanda koefisien regresi yang tidak sesuai dengan hipotesa. berbeda pada negara berkembang bahwa variabel ini terbukti tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. pada studi ini menunjukkan bahwa setiap 1 satuan kenaikan index freedom from corruption, pertumbuhan ekonomi akan menurun sebesar 0,14%. menurut hasil survei transparancy international memperlihatkan, bahwa singapura menjadi negara paling bersih di kawasan asia yang berada di peringkat lima di dunia (transparency, 2013). model pilar limited government model ketiga menganalisis pengaruh komponen penyusun economic freedom ditinjau dari pilar limited government terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. pengolahan pada model ini hasil terbaik yaitu menggunakan common effect. sama halnya pada model sebelumnya, hasil analisis ini mumbuktikan bahwa niali adj.r2 sebesar 0,6073 artinya bahwa kemampuan dari seluruh variabel independent untuk menjelaskan variabel pertumbuhan ekonomi sebesar 60,73%, dan sisanya 38,27% dijelaskan oleh variabel lain yang tidak dimasukkan kedalam model. sedangkan untuk nilai prob.f statistic yang terjadi pada model ketiga ini ialah sebesar 0.000, artinya variabel-variabel independen dalam model secara bersama-sama berpengaruh nyata terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. variabel fdi berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. hal ini juga didukung oleh hubungan pengaruhnya yang sesuai hipotesis. sehingga pada model ini menyatakan bahwa fdi terbukti berpengaruh signifikan dengan koefisien sebesar 0,381244 artinya, jika fdi naik sebesar 1% maka pertumbuhan ekonomi akannaik sebesar 0,38%. untuk variabel nilai tukar terlihat bahwa variabel nilai tukar tidak berpengaruh signifikan untuk mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi, namun memiliki kesesuain teori dan hipotesis yang telah dijelaskan. variabel fiscal freedom terbukti signifikan berpengaruh terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. namun hal ini tidak didukung dengan hubungan teorinya yang sesuai. di mana, fiscal freedom berpengaruh negatif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. sehingga hal ini membuktikan dengan naiknya 1 satuan indeks fiscal freedom, pertumbuhan ekonomi akan menurun sebesar 0,50%. sehingga tidak membuktikan bahwa pajak yang rendah dapat membuat perekonomian negara maju lebih berkembang. government spending juga terlihat terbukti signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi dan memiliki hipotesis yang tidak sesuai. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa apabila terjadi kenaikan 1 satuan pada indeks government spending maka pertumbuhan ekonomi akan menurun sebesar 0,23%. sehingga membukitkan bahwa intervensi pemerintah pada negara berkembang juga masih diperlukan agar terciptanya kesejahteraan bagi negaranya. model pilar regulatory efficiency berdasarkan tabel 4 studi mengenai negara maju pada model keempat ini yang paling tepat ialah common effect. terdapat satu variabel yang terbukti tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, yaitu nilai tukar. sedangkan untuk varibel lainnya terbukti signifikan. berdasarkan hasil pengolahan didapatkan nilai dari adjusted rsquare sebesar 0,6129. hal ini menunjukan kemampuan dari seluruh variabel independen dalam menjelaskan variasi dari variabel dependen sebesar 61,29% dan sisanya 38,71% dijelaskan oleh variabel-variabel independen lain di luar model. sedangkan jika dilihat dari nilai prob.f statistik sebesar 0,000, artinya variabel-variabel independen dalam model secara bersama-sama berpengaruh nyata terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. variabel fdi tetap berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi dan sesuai tanda. sehingga pada model ini menyatakan bahwa fdi terbukti berpengaruh signifikan dengan koefisien sebesar 0,337350, artinya jika fdi naik sebesar 1% maka pertumbuhan ekonomi akan naik sebesar 0,33%. sedangkan nilai tukar yang terbukti tidak berpengaruh signifikan, maka tidak dapat dijelaskan lebih lanjut pada model keempat ini. business freedom atau regulatory freedom terbukti signifikan.namun keadaan ini tidak didukung dengan kesesuaian hipotesis yang dampak economic freedom ... (agustina suparyati, nurul fadilah) 173 ada.negara-negara yang diuji dalam studi ini justru memberikan dampak negatif apabila regulasi dalam berbisnis dimudahkan membuat pasar antar negara semakin tidak ada batasnya dan persaingan semakin meningkat. padahal dalam teorinya, negara maju merupakan negara bebas yang minim akan hambatan yang ada. studi ini menunjukkan nilai koefisiensi sebesar -0,146229, mengartikan bahwa apabila business freedom naik sebesar 1 satuan, maka akan menyebabkan pertumbuhan ekonomi turun sebesar 0,14%. monetary freedom terbukti berpengaruh signifikan namun tidak sesuai hipotesis, di mana, monetary freedom berpengaruh negatif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. sehingga hal ini membuktikan dengan naiknya 1 satuan indeks monetary freedom, pertumbuhan ekonomi akan menurun sebesar 0,22%. sehingga hal ini tidak dapat membuktikan bahwa kondisi inflasi dan nilai tukar pada negara maju adalah stabil. model pilar open markets berbeda dengan model-model sebelumnya, model urutan kelima ini lebih buruk kondisinya dibandingkan pilar-pilar lainnya. model yang terpilih pada model open markets ini ialah fixed effect. berdasarkan tabel 4, pada model kelima ini menunjukkan bahwa hanya terdapat dua variabel terbukti berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, yaitu fdi dan financial freedom.sedangkan untuk varibel lainnya terbukti tidak signifikan. nilai adjusted r-square yang terkecil pada studi negara maju ini ialah hanya sebesar 0,0325, menunjukan kemampuan dari seluruh variabel independen dalam menjelaskan variasi dari variabel dependen hanya sebesar 3,25% dan sisanya 96,75% dijelaskan oleh variabel-variabel independen lain di luar model. sehingga dapat dikatakan bahwa model ini tidak goodness of fit. sedangkan jika dilihat dari nilai prob.f statistik sebesar 0,0142, artinya variabel-variabel independen dalam model secara bersama-sama berpengaruh nyata terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. fdi terbukti berpengaruh signifikan dengan koefisien sebesar 0,38122, artinya jika fdi naik sebesar 1% maka pertumbuhan ekonomi akan naik sebesar 0,38%. sedangkan untuk variabel nilai tukar terlihat bahwa variabel nilai tukar tidak berpengaruh signifikan untuk mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi, namun memiliki kesesuain teori dan hipotesis yang telah dijelaskan. trade freedom terbukti tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. variabel komponen penyusun economic freedom ini merupakan salah satu dari dua komponennya yang terbukti tidak berpengaruh nyata terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. namun hal ini juga tidak mengartikan bahwa perdagangan yang semakin global dapat menurunkan pertumbuhan ekonomi. variabel investment freedom merupakan satu-satunya variabel komponen penyusun economic freedom dari pilar open markets yang terbukti secara statistik berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi.selain itu, variabel ini juga terbukti mempunyai pengaruh yang sesuai teori, artinya investment freedom berpengaruh positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. hal ini dapat dinyatakan secara statistik bahwa dengan naiknya investment freedom sebesar 1 satuan maka pertumbuhan ekonomi akan naik sebesar 0,09%. dengan semakin meningkatnya skor investment freedom, menandakan bahwa investasi yang bebas pada negara maju memang terjadi, sehingga hal ini membuat pertumbuhan ekonomi pada negaranya meningkat. sedangkan untuk variabel financial freedom terbukti tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. sama halnya dengan trade freedom. selain itu, jika dilihat dari hipotesis yang ada, variabel ini juga tidak sesuai teori dan hipotesis yang ada.sehingga variabel ini terbukti tidak dapat menjelaskan pertumbuhan ekonomi. analisis antara negara maju dan negara berkembang berdasarkan informasi analisis dari negara berkembang, hasil studi menunjukkan bahwa model kedua merupakan model yang terbaik dari kelima model yang ada. pilar rule of law terbukti paling berpengaruh terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. tabel 3 membuktikan bahwa nilai adj.r2 terbesar dari lima model yang di uji yaitu sebesar 26.63%. selain itu keberadaan jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015: 158-176 174 nilai signifikansi berada di bawah 0,05(α) terbukti bahwa nilai tukar, fdi, property right dan signifikan. walaupun jika dilihat dari uji kesesuaian tanda, variabel property right tidak sesuai hipotesis. sedangkan dua variabel lainnya terbukti sesuai teori. artinya bahwa pada negara berkembang, peraturan hukum yang ada di suatu negara sangat mempengaruhi perkembangan perekonomian di negaranya. namun untuk model ke tiga yang berasal dari pilar limited government menunjukkan bahwa model ini tidak terbukti lebih bagus dibandingkan model lainnya. didukung dengan nilai adj.r2 terkecil, tidak mencapai 10%, yaitu hanya sebesar 0,95% mampu menjelaskan bahwa variabel independent pada model ketiga ini tidak mampu menjelaskan pertumbuhan ekonomi, terdapat variabel lain di luar model. selanjutnya, nilai prob.f yang melebihi tingkat alpha (5%), juga menunjukkan bahwa variabel independent terbukti secara bersama-sama tidak berpengaruh nyata terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. selain itu juga didukung bahwa seluruh komponen penyusun economic freedom pada model ketiga ini terbukti tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. artinya untuk negara berkembang, dalam bidang pemerintahan baik dari sisi penerimaan maupun pengeluaran, tidak dapat mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi pada negaranya. sedangkan berdasarkan tabel 4 yaitu mengenai analisis untuk negara maju. sama halnya dengan analisis pada negara berkembang, hasil studi menunjukkan bahwa model kedua dari pilar rule of law merupakan model yang lebih baik dibandingkan kelima model yang ada. pilar rule of law terbukti paling berpengaruh terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. tabel 4 membuktikan bahwa nilai adj.r2 terbesar dari lima model yang di uji yaitu sebesar 65,34%. selain seluruh variabel independen terbukti signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. walaupun jika dilihat dari uji kesesuaian tanda, variabel property right dan freedom from corruption tidak sesuai hipotesis. sedangkan dua variabel lainnya terbukti sesuai teori. keadaan ini juga mengartikan bahwa pada negara maju lebih terpaku pada peraturan hukum yang ada untuk mencapai pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tinggi. namun, analisis di negara maju terlihat hasil regresinya yang paling buruk pada pilar open markets yang berbeda dengan negara berkembang di mana pilar pemerintahan merupakan variabel yang memiliki korelasi yang paling rendah terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. didukung dengan nilai adj.r2 terkecil, tidak mencapai 10%, yaitu hanya sebesar 3% mampu menjelaskan bahwa variabel independen pada model kelima ini tidak mampu menjelaskan pertumbuhan ekonomi, terdapat variabel lain diluar model. selain itu juga didukung bahwa hanya ada dua dari lima variabel independent yang terbukti berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, yaitu variabel fdi dan financial freedom. simpulan studi ini yang bertujuan untuk melihat pengaruh variabel fdi, nilai tukar serta economic freedom dan komponen penyusunnya dalam mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi di negara-negara asia yang dikelompokkan menjadi 2 kelompok yaitu kelompok negara berkembang yang terdiri dari 7 negara antara lain indonesia, thailand, malaysia, vietnam, laos, kamboja dan filipina, sedangkan untuk kelompok negara maju yang terdiri dari 4 negara yaitu jepang, korea selatan, cina dan singapura. variabel fdi dan nilai tukar sebagai variabel klasik terbukti secara nyata berpengaruh positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi baik di negara maju maupun berkembang. secara keseluruhan, economic freedom berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi baik di negara maju maupun negara berkembang namun dengan arah yang tidak sesuai dengan hipotesis. korelasi yang negatif antara pertumbuhan ekonomi dengan kebebasan ekonomi ini menunjukkan bahwa negaranegara di asia baik maju maupun sedang berkembang belum siap atau belum mampu memanfaatkan kebebasan ekonomi ini untuk meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonominya. komponen penyusun economic freedomyang terbukti berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di negara sedang berkembang di asia adalah variabel property right, business freedom, trade freedom dan financial freedom. dampak economic freedom ... (agustina suparyati, nurul fadilah) 175 sedangkan komponen penyusun economic freedom yang terbukti berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di negara maju di asia adalah variabel property right, freedom from corruption, government spending, monetary freedom, business freedom, dan financial freedom . di negara maju, model pilar rule of law merupakan salah satu pilar economic freedom yang didalamnya terdapat dua komponen penyusunnya, yaitu property right dan freedom from corruption merupakan model yang terbaik di dalam menjelaskan pengaruhnya terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi dibandingkan model lainnya yang diperlihatkan dari nilai adj.r2 yang lebih tinggi. sedangkan di negara sedang berkembang model pilar open market yang di dalamnya terdapat komponen trade freedom (kebebasan perdagangan), investment freedom (kebebasan investasi) dan financial freedom (kebebasan finansial). berdasarkan kesimpulan dari hasil pembahasan, penulis dapat memberikan saran sebagai rekomendasi kebijakan untuk mencapai economic freedom yang tinggi: 1) adanya economic freedom harus bisa dimanfaatkan sebagai motivasi untuk mencapai pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tinggi, karena dengan perekonomian yang semakin bebas seharusnya mampu membuat negara untuk semakin berkembang sesuai kemauannya. oleh karena itu, keberhasilan suatu negara ditentukan oleh negara itu sendiri. selain itu, dalam economic freedom adanya intervensi pemerintah cukup mengawasi dan melindungi namun tidak membatasi individu untuk berproduksi, berinvestasi, mengonsumsi dan mendistribusi. pemerintah juga wajib memerintah dan mengatur dengan undangundang yang telah ditetapkan bersama ataupun menetapkan hukum yang adil dan jujur sehingga dapat mencegah konflik yang terjadi, seperti kasus pelanggaran kebebasan hak milik dan kasus korupsi yang mengakar; 2) adanya komponen penyusun economic freedom juga dapat menunjang suatu kebebasan di negara, oleh karena itu dengan adanya pajak yang rendah dapat memberikan bantuan perpajakan kepada sektor-sektor kegiatan ekonomi dengan membayar pajak yang rendah, diharapkan dapat mendorong perkembangan bisnis. selain itu, adanya regulasi dalam berbisnis yang tidak berbelit tidak akan menjadi hambatan dalam pelaksanaan kegiatan kewirausahaan; 3) kondisi tingkat inflasi dan nilai tukar stabil dapat menciptakan skor monetary freedom tinggi, sehingga menciptakan perkembangan ekonomi. selain itu, sistem intermediasi keuangan yang terbuka, didukung oleh lembaga keuangan yang dapat menciptakan perluasan pembiayaan untuk berinvestasi. sehingga dapat membuat investasi menjadi lebih mudah. daftar pustaka ahmad, a., ahmad, n. dan ali, (2013). exchange rate and economic growth in pakistan (1975-2011). journal of basic and applied scientific research vol. 3, no. 8: 740-746 aimon, h. (2013). prospek perdagangan luar negeri indonesia – amerika serikat dan kurs. jurnal kajian ekonomi vol. i, no. 02: 207 mankiw, g. (2007). makroekonomi. edisi keenam. erlangga. pt. gelora aksara pramata gujarati, d.n. (2009). dasar-dasar ekonomerika. edisi kelima. raden carlos mangunsong [penerjemah]. jakarta: salemba empat. hady, h. (2012). manajemen keuangan internasional. edisi ketiga. jakarta: mitra wacana media. hafiz, a., alhasymi, m. (2010). analisis pengaruh foreign direct investment (fdi) terhadap pertumbuhan gdp di asean. fakultas ekonomi usu halwani, h. (2005). ekonomi internasional dan globalisasi ekonomi. jakarta: ghalia. handoko, d. (2009). pengaturan hak cipta di indonesia. makalah hak kekayaan intelektual. universitas islam. halaman 12-36. riau kotrajas, p. (2010). foreign direct investment and economic growth: a comparative study among east asian countries. economics journal 17 (2): 12-26. chulalongkorn university. thailand. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015: 158-176 176 kusumastuti, s.y. (2007). penanaman modal asing dan pertumbuhan industri di asean6, china, india, dan korea selatan, 1995-2005 laksono, r. (2012). analisis pengaruh kebebasan ekonomi dan politik terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. fakultas ekonomi universitas indonesia low, s. w; ghazali, n. a; ramlee, s; dan said, r. m. (2010). economic freedom and banking development: the experiences of selected east asian countries. jurnal pengurusan vol.3, no.1: 71-81 mukhlis, i. (2011). analisis volatilitas nilai tukar mata uang rupiah terhadap dolar. journal of indonesian applied economics vol. 5 no. 2: 172-182. pohan, a. (2008). potret kebijakan moneter indonesia, edisi 1, jakarta: pt. raja grafindo persada. riza, a. (2012). foreign direct investment and gross domestic product: an application on eco region (1995-2011). international journal of business and social science vol. 3 no. 2. tayyip erdoğan university. turkey stansel, d. (2013). an economic freedom index for u.s. metropolitan areas. the journal of analysis and policy jrap 43(1): 3-20. usa suryatie, s. (2013). soal kemudahan bisnis, indonesia peringkat 120. antara news. 29 oktober. jakarta tamtomo, e. (2010). analisis pertumbuhan ekonomi pada negara maju dan berkembang. fakultas ekonomi universitas indonesia wahyudi, d. (2010). analisis pengaruh faktorfaktor pertumbuhan ekonomi. fakultas ekonomi universitas indonesia world investment report 2011 www.transparency.org www.worldbank.org www.heritagefoundation.org jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 24 nomor 1, april 2023 article type: research paper a time-varying of property residential price in indonesia: a var approach rifki khoirudin and mahrus lutfi adi kurniawan abstract: the crisis of 2008 started with asset price bubbles which spread to other sectors, thus driving a recession. turmoil in the housing sector can directly harm the domestic economy and financial stability. the research aims to analyze macroeconomic variables that can affect asset prices in indonesia and how the inflation-targeting framework directly affects asset prices. this study contributes to the current research, such as the early warning system for the asset sector that the crisis of 2008 started with asset price bubbles. the inflation targeting framework (itf) policy used by the central bank has shown its effectiveness in the property sector. it can be seen that a negative response is shown from property prices when there are inflationary shocks. the response of interest rates to fluctuations in housing prices is stronger than the response of housing prices to fluctuations in interest rates. it indicates that the interest rate stimulus is more reactive to changes in housing prices as an accommodation of housing price volatility. gdp and money supply will respond negatively to property price fluctuations, which can lead to a crisis because gdp responds negatively. the strengthening of fiscal and monetary policy can soften the volatility of asset prices. keywords: asset price; inflation targeting framework; fiscal policy; monetary policy jel classification: e4; g1; h4 introduction the attention of the government, policymakers, academics, and economists to the housing sector is increasing. it is inseparable from the 2008 global crisis or what is known as the subprime mortgage. the crisis started with asset price bubbles which spread to other sectors, thus driving a recession. turmoil in the housing sector can directly harm the domestic economy and financial stability. since 2005, bank indonesia has implemented an inflation targeting framework (itf) policy. itf policies can efficiently stabilize prices but cannot stem the fluctuations in asset price bubbles. researchers try to build modeling as a first step to mitigate turmoil in the housing/property sector. figure 1 explains indonesia's property price index's growth. the level of price fluctuation does not deviate significantly from its mid-value. however, there were certain moments when there was a significant price decline, such as in 2008. the crisis in the us spread and affected the indonesian property price index, so the growth in the property price index touched -21.01%. the highest property price index growth occurred in the first quarter of 2013, reaching 4.4%. in recent years, it has affiliation: department of development economics, faculty of economics and business, universitas ahmad dahlan, special region of yogyakarta, indonesia *correspondence: rifki.khoirudin@ep.uad.ac.id this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v24i1.17750 citation: khoirudin, r., & kurniawan, m. l. a. (2023). a time-varying of property residential price in indonesia: a var approach. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 24(1), 69-80. article history received: 28 jan 2023 revised: 20 feb 2023 05 mar 2023 accepted: 18 apr 2023 https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?user=7ommkmuaaaaj&hl=en https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?hl=en&user=stojyiqaaaaj https://ep.uad.ac.id/ https://ep.uad.ac.id/ https://ep.uad.ac.id/ https://ep.uad.ac.id/ https://ep.uad.ac.id/ mailto:rifki.khoirudin@ep.uad.ac.id http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp http://dx.doi.org/10.18196/jesp.v24i1.17750 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v24i1.17750&domain=pdf khoirudin & kurniawan a time-varying of property residential price in indonesia: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 70 been noted that the development of the property price index is not more than 0.5%, so the chart in figure 1 after 2017 tends to decline. the effects of the pandemic show that residential property prices have decreased. nurpita and oktavia (2021) argue that the property sector in indonesia has an essential role in driving the national economy. many previous researchers have developed research related to the property sector, such as bernanke and kuttner (2005), who developed the sensitivity of the property sector to changes in monetary policy. mishkin (2007) added that the property sector is linked as a transmission in monetary policy. the monetary sector cannot be separated from the property sector because, in some instances, the property sector is used as loan collateral, affecting the stability of the financial system.not only in the monetary sector, but several studies also link the relationship between the property sector and the economy, such as research developed by ahearne et al. (2005), vargas-silva (2008), and iacoviello and neri (2010). figure 1 growth of price of residential property the literature that links the monetary sector and the property sector has been developed by many previous researchers, such as research designed by bjørnland and jacobsen (2010) using the var approach linking monetary and macroeconomic variables with housing prices in norway, sweden, and the uk, the results of the study show that housing prices will directly respond changes in interest rates. research by bredin et al. (2011) with the same approach shows that housing prices (using reits data) react negatively to changes in interest rates. both studies show that housing prices are sensitive to the monetary sector. with a different approach, such as research by schätz and sebastian (2019) using housing price data in the uk and germany, the vecm approach results in a long-term balance between macroeconomic indicators (consumer price index, government debt, and unemployment rate) on housing prices. other results show a positive relationship between housing prices, the consumer price index, and government debt. the dynamics of housing prices can also be influenced by other macroeconomic factors, such as research by lastrapes (2002) using the var approach, which shows that in the short term, housing price increases occur due to shocks from the money supply. -25,000 -20,000 -15,000 -10,000 -5,000 0,000 5,000 10,000 khoirudin & kurniawan a time-varying of property residential price in indonesia: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 71 studies on the relationship between the monetary and property sectors have been extensively developed. bjørnland and jacobsen (2010) employed the var approach linking monetary and macroeconomic variables with housing prices in norway, sweden, and the uk. the results showed that housing prices would directly respond to interest rate changes. research by bredin et al. (2007) utilized the same approach and showed that housing prices (using reits data) respond negatively to interest rate changes. both analyses reveal that house prices are sensitive to the monetary sector. similar results also showed by research from brooks and tsolacos (1999). the study revealed that inflation and interest rates strongly affected the uk housing market share. beltratti and morana's research (2010) estimates that macroeconomic variable shocks influence 40% of the variation in housing prices in g-7 countries. in their study, adams and füss (2010) showed that economic variables such as industrial production, unemployment, and money supply could affect the housing sector. it contrasts with research by gupta et al. (2010), which states that housing price growth in south africa responds negatively to monetary influences, and housing price responses depend on market segmentation. another approach developed by bredin et al. (2007) with generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (garch) shows that there is a response from housing prices (reit) to the volatility of monetary policy uncertainty. this study related to umar et al. (2019) explained that the direct effect of the monetary policy transmission mechanism on property prices is the income effect. when interest rates rise, the interest expense of any unpaid loan or new loan application will increase. thus, disposable income will decrease. the fall in discretionary income can affect the level of consumption. the impact on the level of consumption is contingent on the movement of interest rates, followed by the tightening of monetary policy. the faster changes in interest rates will affect household disposable income. a study by elbourne (2008) utilized the svar approach. the result indicated a simulation of an impulse response of around a 12-15% decrease in consumption following monetary policy shocks through changes in property prices. the research results do not support evidence that credit channels and the wealth of monetary policy transmission play an important role in the variation in output in response to monetary policy changes. to bridge the gap between all previous studies, this study developed the interrelation between macroeconomic variables and property prices in indonesia and analyzed the shock of property prices to macroeconomic conditions and vice versa. the contribution of this study to the literature by using time series data and applying var approach can analyze the shock-related problems on macroeconomic variables and property price and vice versa, then analyze the structural interrelation between macroeconomic variables, property prices, and var model has better empirical appropriateness on a macroeconomic model. research method the var model was developed by conducting impulse response analysis and forecast error variance decomposition, which was applied to determine the shock of one variable to another. the var model was introduced by sims (1980), which has several similarities khoirudin & kurniawan a time-varying of property residential price in indonesia: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 72 to the model where each variable used has a lag value to explain its relationship to other variables. according to khan and ahmed (2011), svar model has better empirical appropriateness on macroeconomic models that enable structural shock identification based on economy theory. chuku et al. (2011) stated that svar allows the examination of unpredictable effects on one or more variables in a system/model. the equation of the var model is as follows: 𝑦𝑡 = 𝐴0𝐷𝑡 + 𝐴1𝑦𝑡−1 + 𝐴2𝑦𝑡−2 + ⋯ + 𝐴𝑘 𝑦𝑡−𝑘 + 𝑡 where is a vector of endogenous variables with; is a vector of the determinant of the equation for a constant, trend, binary variable, etc.; is the parameter matrix with the determinants of the variables; is the parameter matrix at lag i of the vector; is a vector of random components. the var model uses data that is portionimonius and lag in the model to reduce the problem of autocorrelation from the components of the residual value equation and makes it possible to obtain the appropriate degree of freedom value (kilian & lütkepohl, 2017). to determine the optimum lag length in the model using aic (akaike criterion), bic (schwartz-bayesian criterion), and hqc (hannan-quinn criterion) (enders, 1995). 𝑦𝑡 𝑦𝑡 = (𝑦1𝑡 𝑦2𝑡 𝑦3𝑡 … . 𝑦𝑛𝑡 ) 𝑇 𝐷𝑡 𝐴0𝐴𝑖 𝑦𝑡 𝑡 𝑡 = ( 𝑡1 𝑡2 𝑡3 … 𝑡𝑛) 𝑇 . table 1 definition of variables variables description source house price (lnp) residential property price index (2002=100) bank indonesia gdp (lngdp) gross domestic product using constant prices (2010=100) bank indonesia inflation (inf) inflation describes price changes bank indonesia exchange rate (lnexc) rupiah exchange rate against the dollar bank indonesia money supply (lnms) the money supply in a broad sense bank indonesia interest rate (r) the central bank reference rate bank indonesia sims (1980) states that the combined var model with the least squares method is a property of a time series with stationary variables. therefore, kilian and lütkepohl (2017) state that the application of a stationary test is a crucial stage in developing a var model. a variable that is not stationary has statistical consequences that can lead to spurious regressions. the application of the stationarity test uses the adf (augmented dickeyfuller), and pp (philips-perron) approaches. application of two stationarity tests to compare the results of stationarity with the application of a test that eliminates the problem of heteroscedasticity in the data (pp approach). the stationarity test equation is as follows: ∆𝑦𝑡 = 𝛼0 + 𝑏𝑡 + 𝛿𝑦𝑡−1 + ∑ 𝛾𝑗 𝑘 𝑗=1 ∆𝛾𝑡 + 𝑡 where is a constant, is a trend factor, is an operator in the form of first differences. the adf test can test for existence in a unit root. khoirudin & kurniawan a time-varying of property residential price in indonesia: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 73 result and discussion in the third quarter of 2006-2008, residential property prices in indonesia showed an increasing trend, but a global crisis in 2008 worsened economic conditions, including property prices which dropped in the next quarter. a unidirectional pattern exists between the decline in property prices and several macroeconomic indicators, such as gdp, inflation, exchange rates, and interest rates. the gdp cycle showed a contractionary figure 2 macroeconomic indicators and price of residential property 0 50 100 150 200 250 2 0 0 6 :q 1 2 0 0 7 :q 2 2 0 0 8 :q 3 2 0 0 9 :q 4 2 0 1 1 :q 1 2 0 1 2 :q 2 2 0 1 3 :q 3 2 0 1 4 :q 4 2 0 1 6 :q 1 2 0 1 7 :q 2 2 0 1 8 :q 3 2 0 1 9 :q 4 2 0 2 1 :q 1 price gdp 0 50 100 150 200 250 2 0 0 6 :q 1 2 0 0 7 :q 1 2 0 0 8 :q 1 2 0 0 9 :q 1 2 0 1 0 :q 1 2 0 1 1 :q 1 2 0 1 2 :q 1 2 0 1 3 :q 1 2 0 1 4 :q 1 2 0 1 5 :q 1 2 0 1 6 :q 1 2 0 1 7 :q 1 2 0 1 8 :q 1 2 0 1 9 :q 1 2 0 2 0 :q 1 price inflation 0 50 100 150 200 250 2 0 0 6 :q 1 2 0 0 7 :q 1 2 0 0 8 :q 1 2 0 0 9 :q 1 2 0 1 0 :q 1 2 0 1 1 :q 1 2 0 1 2 :q 1 2 0 1 3 :q 1 2 0 1 4 :q 1 2 0 1 5 :q 1 2 0 1 6 :q 1 2 0 1 7 :q 1 2 0 1 8 :q 1 2 0 1 9 :q 1 2 0 2 0 :q 1 2 0 2 1 :q 1 price exchange rate 0 50 100 150 200 250 2 0 0 6 :q 1 2 0 0 7 :q 2 2 0 0 8 :q 3 2 0 0 9 :q 4 2 0 1 1 :q 1 2 0 1 2 :q 2 2 0 1 3 :q 3 2 0 1 4 :q 4 2 0 1 6 :q 1 2 0 1 7 :q 2 2 0 1 8 :q 3 2 0 1 9 :q 4 2 0 2 1 :q 1 price money supply 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 0 50 100 150 200 250 2 0 0 6 :q 1 2 0 0 7 :q 1 2 0 0 8 :q 1 2 0 0 9 :q 1 2 0 1 0 :q 1 2 0 1 1 :q 1 2 0 1 2 :q 1 2 0 1 3 :q 1 2 0 1 4 :q 1 2 0 1 5 :q 1 2 0 1 6 :q 1 2 0 1 7 :q 1 2 0 1 8 :q 1 2 0 1 9 :q 1 2 0 2 0 :q 1 2 0 2 1 :q 1 price interest rate khoirudin & kurniawan a time-varying of property residential price in indonesia: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 74 phase in 2008, which was in line with the decline in residential property prices. the impact of the global crisis reduced people's purchasing power, as reflected in the drastically declining inflation rate. in 2006-2008 all variables had positive correlation values, meaning that there was a unidirectional relationship between residential property prices and macroeconomic indicators except for the money supply variable. a negative correlation between property prices and the money supply indicates that a decrease in property prices is followed by an increase in the money supply in a broad sense. the 2008 financial crisis was distinct from the 2020 financial crisis. in the pandemic crisis of 2020, property prices decreased, but not as drastically as in 2008, and the adjustment period was shorter. the first quarter of 2021 witnessed an increase in residential property prices . however, a reasonably large gap exists between the increase in property prices and the inflation rate. the 2020 crisis caused inflation to be at its lowest point during the observation period, while the decline in property prices was not as low as in the 2008 crisis. in addition, interest rates decreased in the 2008 and 2020 crises. table 2 shows that all variables have a mean value more significant than the standard deviation value, indicating that all data on the variables used have high variability. the highest inflation rate reached 15,740, with the lowest at 1,330, while interest rates showed the highest at 12,750 and the lowest at 3.50. all data has skewed to the left, which is based on a negative skewness value, except for inflation and interest rates, which have a positive skewness value. the kurtosis value on the variable used has a positive value and is the highest in the inflation variable and the lowest in the exchange rate variable. table 2 description of variables lnp lngdp inf lnexc lnms r means 5.136 14,527 5,375 9,345 15,035 6,555 maximum 5,377 14,861 15,740 9,703 15,879 12,750 minimum 4,866 14,090 1,330 9,059 13,997 3,500 std dev 0.177 0.236 3,281 0.201 0.539 2,000 skewness -0.051 -0.245 1,426 -0.018 -0.326 0.860 kurtosis 1,430 1,769 4,982 1,336 1870 4,172 obs 64 64 64 64 64 64 table 3 shows the result of unit root test. this study applies the unit root test of augmented dickey-fuller, and phillips-perron (pp) approaches to test the presence of non-stationary stochastic in time-series data. the use of pp is also to eliminate the problem of heteroscedasticity in the data. the unit root test applies "trend and intercept" as a unit root test with "trend" and applies "intercept" as a unit root test with "no trend." the adf test in the form of level i(0) shows that only the interest rate variable rejects h0, and in the pp test, three variables reject h0, namely lngdp in the form of trend, inf, and r. when the variable is not stationary at i(0), it is transformed into the first difference form i(1). khoirudin & kurniawan a time-varying of property residential price in indonesia: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 75 table 3 stationery variables variables adf pp trends no trends trends no trends lnp levels -1,621 -0.192 -1,737 -0.253 lngdp -2,828 -1,239 -4,443*** -0.369 inf -2,966 -1,704 -3,911** -3,362** lnexc -2,685 -1,099 -2,597 -0.897 lnms 0.603 4,184 0.619 3,883 r -4,321*** -3,157** -3,305* -2,869* lnp firstdifference -7.055*** -7,099*** -7,053*** -7,110*** lngdp -1,670 -1,539 -11,549*** -11,650*** inf -6,551*** -6,634*** -7.116*** -7,077*** lnexc -9,746*** -9,827*** -10.053*** -10.142*** lnms -11,006*** -9.105*** -11.125*** -9.157*** r -4,728*** -4,663*** -4,644*** -4,540*** the stability of var if the roots lie on the circle. figure 3 shows the value of the inverse roots characteristic of the ar polynomial located within a circle, which means the var system is stable. based on the var stability test, it can be concluded that var estimation can be used for impulse response function (irf) and forecast error variance decomposition (fevd) analysis is stable and has optimal lag. -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 inverse roots of ar characteristic polynomial figure 3 inverse roots of ar characteristic polynomial the irf method describes a variable response to fluctuations in other variables in the var system. the horizontal line indicates the standard deviation value of the response function and is used as a balance point. if the response line is above the balance line, it shows a positive response; if it is below the balance line, the response will be negative. the vertical line shows the period used. figure 4 explains the response of residential property prices to macroeconomic indicator shocks. the fluctuation in the lngdp variable will respond positively from period 1 to period 14 and turn into a negative response from period 15 to 35. otrok and terrones (2004) in their research, there is a macroeconomic effect on property prices. khoirudin & kurniawan a time-varying of property residential price in indonesia: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 76 the inflation targeting framework (itf) policy used by the central bank has shown its effectiveness in the property sector. it can be seen that a negative response is shown from property prices when there are inflationary shocks. when there is turmoil in these two variables, other monetary policies, such as interest rates and money supply, are responded positively by property prices. the graph of the money supply response is not significant enough for each time horizon, and the same happens with the fluctuation of interest rates to the response of property prices. the downward trend in inflation, which is not followed by interest rates and money supply, contrasts with research developed by morana (2006). the effectiveness of interest rates and money supply faces challenges in its application to the property sector, and this happens because the pace of the property sector is growing very fast. the property sector responded negatively to exchange rate fluctuations which showed that when the exchange rate depreciated, the factor components of production in the property sector became more expensive, so the property sector experienced a decline. the free-floating exchange rate regime played a role in the initial response volatility and began to stabilize at the next time horizon. lnp response to shock of lnp lnp response to shock of lngdp lnp response to shock of inf response lnp to shock of lnexc response lnp to shock of lnms response lnp to shock of r figure 4 impulse response function (with 95% error bands) for the response of lnp to shock of macroeconomic indicators figure 5 shows the response of macroeconomic indicators to residential property price fluctuations. this analysis received more attention due to the 2008 global crisis in the financial sector due to the bubble price in the property sector in the us. gdp and money supply will respond negatively to property price fluctuations, which can lead to a crisis because gdp responds negatively. gdp response fluctuations are more volatile than the property price response to gdp fluctuations, and this is an early warning, especially for the central bank to tolerate these fluctuations, which can become more significant. it is khoirudin & kurniawan a time-varying of property residential price in indonesia: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 77 in line with research developed by benati (2021). however, there has been a change in the response pattern of inflation to property price fluctuations. there will be an increase in prices so that inflation will increase. the volatility of the inflation response indicates that property price fluctuations can impact other sectors, which can increase overall inflation. the response of interest rates to fluctuations in housing prices is stronger than the response of housing prices to fluctuations in interest rates. it indicates that the interest rate stimulus is more responsive to changes in housing prices as an accommodation for housing price volatility and a response to prevent property market price rises. lnp response to shock of lnp response of lngdp to shock of lnp inf response to shock of lnp response lnexc to shock of lnp lnms response to shock of lnp response r to shock of lnp figure 5 response of macroeconomic indicators to shock of lnp forecast error variance decomposition is a method used to see how changes in a variable are indicated by changes in error variance that other variables affect. this analysis is used to calculate how big the influence of random shocks from certain variables to endogenous variables. table 4 explains that inflation, gdp, and exchange rates primarily determine residential property prices. in the shortest time horizon (5th), inflation has a variability in property prices of 1-10%, with an average time of 4,531%. table 4 variance decomposition dynamic horizons lnp lngdp inf lnexc lnms r average forecast 5th 86057 4,005 4,531 4,817 0.330 0.258 10th 68,654 7,777 16,860 5,341 0.682 0.686 20th 63,194 7,396 17,202 5,574 3,424 3,210 30 yrs 60,275 7,725 15.157 6,881 6,789 3.173 40 yrs 60,147 7,545 14,612 7.158 7,498 3038 khoirudin & kurniawan a time-varying of property residential price in indonesia: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 78 in the medium time, horizon (20th), gdp has variability in property prices ranging from 7% with an average of 7,396%, while in the long time horizon (40 years), the variability of the exchange rate on property prices ranges from 7-7.10% with an average of 7.158%. in addition, money supply and interest rate variables cannot be ignored because they have a co-movement toward residential housing prices in indonesia. regarding forecast error, macroeconomic indicators and low-interest rate policies drive housing prices. it is in line with research developed by jarocinski and smets (2008), which states that housing price expectations are supported by anti-deflationary policies (low-interest rates) in the long run. conclusion using data for the 2006-2021 quarter and applying the var model, this research aims to investigate the relationship between residential property prices and macroeconomic indicators in indonesia. on the basis of the results of the impulse response, a number of research findings indicate that the fluctuation in gdp response is more volatile than the property price response to gdp fluctuations. inflation is crucial due to its high variability relative to other macroeconomic indicators, as indicated by forecast error results and other findings. the volatility of the inflation response indicates that property price fluctuations can impact other sectors, which can increase overall inflation. monetary policy such as interest rates has a more robust response to housing price fluctuations than housing price responses to interest rate fluctuations. it indicates that the interest rate stimulus is more responsive to changes in housing prices as an accommodation for housing price volatility and a response to prevent property market price rises.there is still debate regarding the relationship between macroeconomic indicators and residential property prices regarding the relationship between variables and the nature of the relationship, whether it occurs directly or indirectly. the var model tries to bridge the second point and results that three macroeconomic indicators have variability in property prices, namely gdp, inflation, and exchange rates based on forecast error results. in terms of forecast error, it shows that housing prices are driven not only by macroeconomic indicators 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(2008). monetary policy and the us housing market: a var analysis imposing sign restrictions. journal of macroeconomics, 30(3), 977–990. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2007.07.004 https://doi.org/10.18196/jai/v23i1.13270 https://doi.org/10.12928/optimum.v11i1.3569 https://doi.org/10.1080/09599910903441788 http://www.jstor.org/stable/1815476 https://doi.org/10.1108/ijhma-12-2017-0106 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2007.07.004 image (2).jpg image (3).jpg image (4).jpg image (5).jpg image (6).jpg image (7).jpg image (8).jpg image (9).jpg image (10).jpg image (11).jpg image (12).jpg image (13).jpg image (14).jpg image (15).jpg image (16).jpg image (17).jpg image (478).jpg image (479).jpg image (480).jpg image (481).jpg image (482).jpg image (483).jpg image (484).jpg image (485).jpg image (486).jpg image (487).jpg image (488).jpg image (489).jpg image (490).jpg image (491).jpg image (492).jpg image (493).jpg image (494).jpg image (495).jpg studi efektivitas pelayanan publik di kecamatan kejaksan kota cirebon jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 105 118 modern approach of zakat as an economic and social instrument for poverty alleviation and stability of ummah wan sulaiman bin wan yusoff kulliyyah of economics and management sciences international islamic university malaysia p.o. box 10, 50728 kuala lumpur, malaysia phone: +6 03-6196 4850 / 4778 / 4773 e-mail: sulaiman@iiu.edu.my abstrak: pendekatan modern lembaga zakat yang signifikan instrumen ekonomi dan sosial untuk pengentasan kemiskinan dan stabilitas ummat islam. tulisan ini menyoroti lingkup yang lebih luas pengertian istilah "kemiskinan" dan membahas bagaimana lembaga zakat dapat memainkan peranan penting untuk mengurangi status kemiskinan di negara-negara muslim di dunia modern. tugas utama dari makalah ini adalah menggunakan lembaga zakat untuk melayani sebagai kolam sumberdaya bagi pembangunan ekonomi dan sosial dari awal ummat dengan mereka yang paling membutuhkan. dana zakat dapat dimanfaatkan untuk pengembangan sumber daya terutama berkonsentrasi di bidang pembangunan modal manusia untuk jangka panjang ketimbang bantuan jangka pendek bagi mereka yang membutuhkan dan pada saat yang sama, mencegah penerimaan zakat dari pengalihan ke arah yang tidak diinginkan (1440h visi idb). kita menggunakan dana zakat sebagai sarana untuk memberikan bantuan yang akan memiliki efek yang lama. lembaga zakat harus memiliki program jangka panjang untuk mengajar fakir miskin tahu bagaimana menangkap ikan daripada setiap tahun kita hanya memberi mereka ikan untuk makan. kata kunci: zakat, pengurangan kemiskinan, pembangunan sosial, abstract: the modern approach to zakat institution is a significant economic and social instrument for the poverty alleviation and stability of the muslim ummah. this paper highlights a wider scope of understanding the term "poverty" and discusses how zakat institution can play an important role to alleviate the status of poverty in muslim countries in the modern world. the main task of this paper is to use zakat institution to serve as a pool of resources for the economic and social development of the ummah beginning with those who most needy. in this regard, zakat funds can be utilized for the development of resources especially concentrate in the area of human capital development for the long-term rather than short-term relief for those in need and at the same time, prevent the zakat revenues from diversion to undesired directions (vision of idb 1440h). we should aim at using zakat fund as a means of providing assistance that will have a long lasting effect. zakat institution should have long-term programme to teach the poor and needy know how to catch fish rather than every year we merely provide them with fish to eat. keywords: zakat, poverty alleviaton, social development, economic instrument jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 105 118 106 introduction poverty alleviation or solving the poverty problem in low-income countries is becoming a worldwide issue today – it requires rapid growth in output, income and employment. but where is the effective demand for massive increases in output to come from? domestic demand has traditionally been important in the initial stage of accelerated economic growth. but kick-starting domestic demand necessitates rising productivity in the large agricultural sector and creating more employment, increasing income and larger marginal propensity to consume (mpc) through integrated approach of physical investment and human capital. in this connection, zakat institution is one of the significant and obligatory institutions in each muslim country to be implemented effectively and successfully along with the government plans of economic and social development of the country. being a muslim, zakat is declared as the third pillar in the sunna as well as in the qur'an, without which the structure of islam does not stand. zakat in islam is not a mere charity left to the righteousness of individuals as part of their good deeds. it is rather an essential pillar of their religion, one of its major rituals, and the second of its four main forms of worship. zakat is rather a social welfare institution supervised by the state and organized as a tax administration by a specific governmental body. based on the above islamic principle and third pillar of islam – this paper try to seek the most effective and efficient methodology within the modern setting to bring the benefits of zakat to the muslim ummah. this paper is organized in the following way. section 2 presents the general definition, scope and tools of poverty alleviation. modernization of zakat institution as an economic and social toll for poverty alleviation and stability of ummah are presented in section 3. section 4 discuses the concept of zakat's implementation in the modern time. section 5 briefly proposes some theoretical models for the implementation of zakat in poverty alleviation (these models under the research works in malaysia for three different states i.e. kuala lumpur, selangor and kelantan). in the last section some concluding remarks are provided. discussion general definitions, scope and tools of poverty alleviation 1. definition of poverty poverty is an income level that is insufficient to supply minimum nutritional and basic non-food requirements (barry. j.l., et al, 1997); poverty is often defined in terms of people who live on less than $1.00 per day (1/6 of world population, about 1 billion people); but at the earth institution at columbia university researchers take a "human needs poverty" approach, by addressing its many causes: hunger, access to heath care and water, energy, trade barriers, gender equality, access to education (earth institute, 22/12/2004). most definitions of poverty by economists have defined it with respect to being able to attain a standard of living – according to ravallion (1994. p.3), poverty can be said to exist in a given society when one or more persons do not attain a level of economic well-being deemed to constitute a reasonable minimum by the standard of that society. the world development report (wdr) in 1990 defined poverty as "the inability to attain a minimal standard of modern approach of zakat (wan sulaiman bin wan yusoff) 107 living", or all households not able to achieve this critical level of consumption expenditure or income are described as poor. based on ravallion's definition of poverty who suggests that the concept of poverty or what poverty is, is very much determined by the norms, values and circumstances of the society, then it may be difficult to conduct comparisons across countries and societies since the nature, structure of poverty may vary from one society to another. however, the word poverty can be divided into three different profiles: the poorest, best describes as "the destitute poor" (fuqara'), "the structural poor" and "mobile poor", (up/bihar study in india, kozel, v. (1999)). the participatory approach: the voice of the poor, based on this approach – the poor are given a chance to speak for themselves. these methods have indeed confirmed the broad dimensions of being poor. it was found that the main distinguishing features of poverty included "hunger and food insecurity, weak capacity to educate children and access to basic services, inability to honor social obligations, powerlessness and isolation", (korboe, 1988). another approach, in ghana (1995), found that poverty was defined as lack of physical inputs, houses, labor, social capital, good clothing and having to be involved in "by-day" work (norton, et al). thus this approach highlights as characteristics of poverty vulnerability, social exclusion and low self-esteem. 2. poverty indicators it is necessary to have information on a broad range of indicators including income, consumption poverty and perception, and perspectives of the poor themselves. based on wdr 1990 – the poverty indicators are income/ consumption measure and supplemented by other indicators i.e. nutrition, life expectancy, under 5 mortality, school enrolment rates, various social and demographic indicators, non-income dimensions of poverty including nutritional status, life expectancy and adult literacy. therefore, based on above definitions – poverty reduction must start with solving two-thirds of the problem – broad based agricultural growth, rising farm incomes and hence rising effective demand for the high employment farm driven non-farm sector. then, the thrust for gdp growth can go ahead with minimal social tension, and direct action programme to reach the poor can succeed (mellor j.k. 1999). 3. tools of poverty alleviation there are various instruments to overcome the problem of poor groups in the society. these are as follow: a. banking for the poor (grameen bank) b. agricultural on the road to industrialization (see j.w. mellor, 1999) c. best practice approach – learn from successful experiments elsewhere which can be transplanted into their own national or cultural setting – lesson from high-achieving countries (s. mehrotra) d. "pro-poor growth" (see social capital, a. joshi & m. moore. (1999)) e. high macro-economic priority to health and education f. women's agency role (a. sen 1995) g. management of social transformation. (mohd shafie 1999) h. innovation approach to land and housing provision (david dollar) 1999) i. aid, policies and poverty reduction, (david dollar, 1999) j. an integrated approach to development – poverty alleviation, environmental protection and sustainable livelihoods jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 105 118 108 k. access of the poor to the financial services especially islamic financial services. l. role of islamic institutions such as zakat, awqaf, qard hassan, baitulmal wal tamweel and rehn. 4. modernization of zakat institution as an economic and social instrument for poverty alleviation and stability of the ummah in this section we discuss how the institution of zakat can play an important role in alleviating poverty in the society. zakat would have the maximum effect on poverty if it were allocated on the basis of the poverty rate and the quality of economic policy. a. objectives of zakat as a transfer of ownership is supplemented by moral, humanistic, social and economic objectives 1) to use zakat as a mean of providing assistance that will have a lasting effect 2) to utilize zakat funds for the development of resources especially in human capital b. effects of zakat on payers are to elevate the spirit of human being above the love of material acquisition – as a person who always needs purification and cleansing, both spiritually and materially – "take sadaqa from their wealth by which you might purify and cleanse them". the detail effects of zakat on payers are as follows: 1) zakat purifies the soul from miserliness 2) zakat train one to give and inculcate generosity in him. 3) zakat trains people to acquire divine characteristics 4) zakat as an expression of thankfulness to allah 5) zakat is a cure for the love of worldly things 6) zakat stimulates personality growth in those who pay it 7) zakat improves ties of mutual love between poor and rich and ties of brotherhood and love each other 8) zakat purifies wealth – if you pay zakat on your wealth, you have taken away its evil 9) zakat does not purify unlawful wealth (allah does not erase evil with evil. he rather removes evil with good 10) zakat brings growth to wealth – a blessing from allah that brings prosperity (see verses (34:39), (2:268), (30:39), (2:276) c. effect of zakat on recipients 1) zakat liberates its recipients from material needs. living in good and prosperous life is one of the islamic objectives for all human beings. the satisfaction of the material needs of life is undoubtedly an essential ingredient of human happiness. obviously, islam likes people to be prosperous and hates poverty, especially when poverty is the result of unjust distribution of wealth or class oppression. the betterment of material living in islam is not just a goal in itself likes materialist system, but it is a means of spiritual uplifting and as the liberation of human energy from devotion to seeking bread to worshipping and glorifying allah. islam is expressed modern approach of zakat (wan sulaiman bin wan yusoff) 109 in the idea that making one rich is a grace from allah. allah tells the messenger, "did he not find you impoverished and enrich you?" (93:8), he tells the muslims in madinah, "he give you refuge and supported you with his help and provided you with good things so that perhaps you would be thankful." (8:26). the prophet used to pray, "my lord, i ask you for guidance, righteousness, contentment and wealth." moreover, he prefers a grateful rich person to a patient poor person. every muslim is supposed to believe that prosperity is considered part of the reward which allah gives to righteous believers while poverty and misery are part of the punishment for disbelief and misconduct. allah says, "anyone who acts rightly, male and female, being a believer, we will give them a good life." (16:97) and many other verses in this regards likes (7:96), (65:2-3), (16: 112). allah commands zakat in order to use the surplus wealth of society to satisfy the essential needs of those who are not lucky enough to have wealth of their own so they can enjoy the bounties of allah and contribute to the progress of society. letting the poor know that they are not lost or forgotten and that society cares deeply about their needs is in itself an upgrade of their sentiments and sense of brotherhood. human dignity and the honor given to human being by allah require that not a single person be neglected or left on the periphery of society. 2) zakat cleanses jealousy and hatred zakat is also a means of purifying the soul from envy and hatred. a man, beaten down by poverty and pressed by the material necessities of life, who sees others around him enjoying a high standard of living and luxuries without helping him or extending any relief to him, will naturally be ravaged by the pressure of unsatisfied material needs and become full of hatred and enmity towards the entire society. islam wants strong relationship and solidarity between muslim ummah. such fraternity, strong relationship and solidarity cannot be established and stabilized if one brother has a full stomach while others are left to hunger, for this nourishes hatred and envy. as the prophet (pbuh) puts it, "and be, o servants of allah, one brotherhood," (muslim) and "a muslim is the brother of a fellow muslim". envy and hatred are some of the most devastating social diseases that destroy people and societies. therefore, love and brotherhood among people, poor and rich, are nourished by zakat which strengthens the bonds of society and cleanses the hearts and souls of people. the prophet (pbuh) says, "none of you is a true believer until he loves for his brother what he loves for himself." (albukhari and muslim) d. objective of zakat in society clearly, giving zakat to those people in eight categories (eight asnaf), – the poor, the destitute, those who collect it, reconciling people's hearts, freeing slaves, those in debt, spending in way of allah, and travelers; serves important social objectives. zakat covers only the areas called social insurance and social security (yusuf al-qardawi, 1999). social insurance systems usually require the users to pay premiums and contributions in order to participate in the benefits, jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 105 118 110 while social security systems may be guaranteed by the state from its own budget. zakat does not make it a condition for any recipient to participate or to have participated in the contributions; zakat simply provides relief to those in needs and collects funds from whoever has excess. zakat is, in fact, the first system of social security ever enacted in the human history, a system that does not depend on individual voluntary charity but on a governmental institution that collects regular contributions and distributes organized relief to all those who are in need. this system of zakat provides regular relief as well as emergency aid. we can see from the islamic history of "umar ibn abdul-aziz", he divided zakat into many shares, for example, a share for the ill, the handicapped, the needy person who cannot provide for himself, the destitute until they can be removed from destitution, a share for those in prison, for those who beg and those who do not, the person whoever in debts provided that such debts did not arise from disobedience to allah, a share for every traveler in difficulty. such travelers should be given food and shelter as well as feed for transportation animal until they reach home. this system does not cover only needy muslims, but extends to needy nonmuslims who live in the islamic state, as umar indicated by including the elderly jewish man and the ill christians in this social insurance. social security that provides help without requiring contributions, there is a complete provision for the poor and needy, organized and implemented by the state and financed by zakat or a tax imposed on the rich only. it is part of religion of islam and its third pillar without which the very faith of a muslim is incomplete. e. zakat and spiritual integrity of the nation one can distinguish three major factors to which islam gives special attention. the first is freedom or liberty. one of the objectives of zakat is to liberate individuals from the bondage of slavery. this is a social obligation for which a certain portion of the community's wealth is to be spent. the second is encouraging individuals to carry out projects of public interest and to spend toward smoothing out differences between segment of the community and reconciling individuals and groups in order to avoid social unrest. such actions are encouraged by assigning a share of zakat to support those who have to bear financial responsibility for these purposes. the third is spending in the way of allah and spreading the sound religion that comes from him is urged. fighting in the way of allah includes defending the ideals and doctrines for which allah sent his messengers and upholding the oneness of allah and righteousness on earth. therefore, these three areas are essential pillars of social life of the muslim community. zakat as an instituted tax is not detached from the principles and worship of islamic community, nor is it isolated from its values, morals, politics, economics and defense. modern approach of zakat (wan sulaiman bin wan yusoff) 111 f. six major social problems and find how zakat contributes to solving them and eliminating their causes 1) problem of socio-economic gap extreme poverty is a major social calamity that islam does not tolerate in its society. the qur'an emphasizes, "it is he who created everything on the earth for you" (2:29). one of the objectives islam aims for is the reduction of socioeconomic difference by providing support and financial help to the havenots to bring them closer to the haves. islam tackles this problem with much of its legislation, social institutions and economic directives in order to achieve justice both in the distribution of wealth and the distribution of income, (see 59:7). zakat, as we have seen earlier, does not only provide relief to the poor but aims also at making the poor own the means of production by giving them the tools and machinery necessary for productive work, so that persons given zakat are removed forever from the category of the poor and needy. 2) problem of beggars and begging a) islam fights begging through education and training to the point that asking for any kind of assistance is disliked except in dire need. the prophet (pbuh) said, "that you worship allah and do not associate any partners with him whatsoever, that you pray the five prayers, that you listen and obey….." and he whispered a word and continued, "and that you do not ask people for anything". b) teaching of the prophet on selfsupport, there are two essential principles given by prophet (pbuh) to his companions: firstly, work is the source of gaining income and means of sustenance. muslims are urged to travel through the earth in search of the bounties of allah through work. work, manual or otherwise, is better than living on humiliating grants. secondly, asking people unnecessarily is prohibited because it is undignifying. muslim is prohibited from resorting to begging for relief except for those who are in desperate needs. c) practical cure for the problem of begging. there are two-fold – the first step is providing suitable jobs for all those who can work. this is one of the responsibilities of the islamic state towards its citizens. the state must not remain idle or paralyzed when faced with the problem of employment. nor must the state keep providing relief from sadaqah without rectifying the root of the problem. the prophet (pbuh) said that "sadaqah is not lawful to any rich person or to a strong and capable one" when we observe in a story narrated by anas ibn malik about a man of the ansar, who came asking the prophet (pbuh) for financial help. prophet asked him to bring a cup (that he had) to sell in the public for two dirham – one to buy food for the family and another one to buy an axe-head as an instrument (or capital) to get wood and sell it…… and after that prophet did not want to see the man for ten days. after ten days the same person came back with ten dirham his income in hand. the messenger of allah (pbuh) said, "this is better for you than jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 105 118 112 the begging that comes as a scar on your face on the day of rising. therefore, begging is not permissible except to one of three. a destitute poor person, or a person with overwhelming debts, or a person who has to pay ransom or to buy the freedom for an accidental homicide" the practical teaching of the prophet (pbuh), when he did not want that person to take zakat because he was able to earn, and such taking is not permissible except as a last resort. the government is responsible for helping people to find suitable jobs. the above hadith outlines the practical teaching of islam to wipe out poverty and unemployment. the prophet (pbuh) taught that one must use all one's abilities, no matter how few they might be, and to exhaust all means of productive work before resorting to begging or asking people. the cure is not only to extend immediate relief, but to provide means of self-support and productive work. or we should aim to use zakat as a means of providing assistance that will have a lasting effect. we should not merely feed the hungry man with fish to eat, but we should have programs to teach them how to catch fish so that they can take care of their own welfare long into the future. this concept of zakat's implementation could be used in these modern times particularly for the purposes of human capital development, both on an individual as well as on a community basis. the role that zakat can play in this regard is obvious. it can provide the unemployed labor with the necessary tools, machinery and capital for productive work. zakat also can fund job training or job rehabilitation programme. above all, it can establish collective projects and industries run by poor (e.g. ladang rakyat in state of kelantan in malaysia) and formerly employed workers the second part of islam's cure for begging is social insurance for those who have no income. such persons are guaranteed a minimum standard of living or an income above poverty line in the modern concept suitable to a given islamic society. poverty or unemployment may be caused by either of two reasons: physical incapability due to old age, sickness or handicap, or the inability to find a job may be due to economic factors or non-economic factors which go beyond his/her ability, both groups must be supported by zakat. 3) brotherhood is an essential objective of islam. the relationship of brotherhood will breakdown, dispute and even fighting each other might be, one of this respects, due to financial matters. reconciling differences among people and removing factors that cause feuds and may lead to fighting is the collective responsibility of the community and the entire society. allah encourages reconciliation and making peace among people in more than one place in al-quraan (see8:1), (4:114). however, such reconciliation may require financial sacrifices, since many differences arise due to financial matters; many others can be settled by paying ransoms. therefore in this connection, zakat indeed offers a source for such payment under the title of the share of those in debt. modern approach of zakat (wan sulaiman bin wan yusoff) 113 4) the problem of accidents and natural calamities islam attempts to guarantee each person in islamic society sufficiency of sustenance and security from fear, so that each human being can devote a good part of his or her energy to worshipping allah. (see 106:14) and (16: 112) islamic law guarantees every person in the islamic state, muslim or not, a suitable standard of living, whereby food, clothing and shelter are available in addition to health care and education. it was shown earlier that the system of zakat aims at satisfying the poor and the needy and their families for life. beside this, "people in debt" includes those afflicted by disaster or accidents are not left to voluntary charity alone, and moreover they are given a share in the proceeds of zakat, (yusuf al-qardawi, 1999, p. 564). question arises! how much are such persons given? in the hadith, the prophet (pbuh) says such a person may ask, "until he secures sufficiency of sustenance." based on the modern concept, this amount differs from one person to another, depending on factors such as general standard of living, size of family, and social status and act. at the same time, it also depends on the availability of the funds in the zakat agency and several other factors. 5) the problem of involuntary celibacy (remaining unmarried) there is no monasticism in islam. islam does not allow any tendency to voluntary celibacy. suppression of the sexual drive or its elimination is not accepted by islam which encourages marriage and forbids taking vows of celibacy and castration. furthermore, the prophet (pbuh) called on youths, "o young people, whoever can afford marriage among you must marry, since marriage is better for lowering the gaze and protecting chastity." (al bukhari). some scholars deduce that marriage is obligatory on each muslim. refraining from marrying is not permissible for anyone who has the means to marry. muslims must not avoid marriage because of constraint in their means or because of the burden of its responsibilities. allah promises enrichment to those who look to marriage as a means of human satisfaction and protection against the unlawful fulfillment of the sexual drive, (see (24:32). the prophet (pbuh) says that "three have the right to help from allah: a man who seeks marriage in order to satisfy himself and protect his chastity, a slave who has a contract for freeing himself for a certain amount who intends to fulfill his duty, and a fighter in the way of allah." in this regard, the institution of zakat is one of the favors allah has given islamic society. zakat must be used to help provide marriage expenses for those who are in need, (see 30:21) the role of the zakat institution in aiding marriage is not an innovation of mine but was decided by past leading scholars.1 they declare that getting married is included in provision of sufficiency of sustenance and argue that providing unmarried poor persons with financial help for getting married is an integral part of providing essential needs. 1 reported by ahmad, an-nasa'i, at-tirmidhi, ibn majah and al-hakim from abu hurayra via a sound chain, as stated in at-taysir, vol.1, p. 474. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 105 118 114 6) problem of the homeless islam prefers every person to have a home and belong to a family, and does not like anyone to be homeless. consequently, adequate shelter for a person and his or her family is included under the essential needs, for the satisfaction of which zakat imposed by allah. an-nawawi explains that essential needs include food, clothing, residence and everything that is indispensable for life, at a level that suits the receiver and his or her social status without extravagance or miserliness. ibn hazm adds, "it is an obligation on the rich people of every region to provide for all the needs of the poor in that region. if the proceeds of zakat and fay' are not sufficient, satisfaction of the needs for food, clothing for summer and winter, and shelter that protect from the sun, the rain and the eyes of passers-by must nevertheless still be provided from the wealth of the rich. g. zakat institution and government in reality when we talk about zakat institution, then it will only be proper if we compare the capability of zakat institution and government agencies in the country. the responsibilities of each government in the country are wider scope than institution of zakat. government is responsible for the matter involving peace and stability in economics, politics and social. based on that government could develop, create job opportunities to its citizen, attract domestic and foreign investment for manufacture/ industry, build facilities and infrastructures, provide education, develop science and technology, develop the agricultural sector and other agenda of country's development. zakat institution can not take over the responsibility and duty of the government agency rather it could and should only complement the duty of the government agency in relating scopes. the scope and the amount of collection of zakat rate, for the lower bound only 2.5% and for the upper bound it may go from 5% 20%2 , compare to percentage of income tax of some muslim countries of 20 -30% (case of malaysia). therefore, for the problem of poverty alleviation, government has abandon and more wealth and it is able to implement more programme/projects/efforts and plan to help the poor. however, based on islamic history, zakat institution could play important roles in solving the problems of human society, it does not only provide relief to the poor but aims also at making the poor able to access to higher education, get hard and soft skills, and own the means of production by giving them the tools and machinery necessary for productive work, so that persons given zakat are removed forever from the category of the poor and needy. this concept of zakat's implementation could be used in these modern times particularly for the purposes of human capital development, both on an individual as well as on a community basis. 2 ibn al-qayyim has divided the zakat rates into four i.e. 20% or one-fifth, 10% or one-ten, 5% or one-twentieth and 2.5% or one-fortieth. (refer to "labor consideration behind different rates of zakat"). modern approach of zakat (wan sulaiman bin wan yusoff) 115 5. the concepts of zakat's implementation in the modern times zakat's implementation in the modern times for the purpose of investment and human capital, these concepts are based on "zakat is due to two kinds of persons – those in need of relief and those needed by muslim society". the main purpose of the distribution of zakat is to make the poor and needy reach, the upper limit of giving in zakat is the provision of, their sufficiency of sustenance (yusuf alqardawi, 1999, p. 355). for example, a craftsman would be given an amount sufficient to buy tools and equipments that allow him to work and gain his sustenance. based on the above guide line the areas which zakat suppose to concentrate in the modern society today are as follows: a. zakat should provide students with scholarships for higher education b. zakat should provide for training shortcourses which are relevant to market demand c. zakat should provide a fund of islamic financial services (ifs) for the potential poor and needy who are able to work d. zakat should provide tools and machinery necessary for productive work for the poor and needy who are able to work e. zakat should combine its forces between government plans of economic development and institution of zakat to solve the problem of poverty by giving resources' allocations e.g. in agricultural sector – enough farming lands, machineries, plantations, animals (see a model of "lading rakyat" in kelantan, malaysia) ; and in manufacturing sector likes suitable work-shops, small scale industry, medium scale industry, etc. according to this opinion, based on yusuf al-qardawi, the muslim state can establish factories and businesses, making them all owned by the poor and needy, whose returns and income would be sufficient for their basic sustenance. f. zakat should also consider providing basic needs, other than foods and clothing, likes shelters to live in for the poor and needy. for example low-cost housing project in certain area for the poor and needy g. zakat should also allocate for research of dissemination of knowledge (yusuf al-qardawi, 1999, p. 360) h. zakat should strongly support fighters of opposing ideologies, since cultural colonialism is worse than military colonialism. i. zakat should cover the wider scope of the term "fi sabilillah" which means spending to support the din of allah, its way of life, its law which is allah's gift to humanity and to fight all its enemies. j. the most deserving area of zakat in the category of fi-sabilillah today is seriously jihad, purposefully organized work to rebuild islamic society and state to implement the islamic way of life in the political, cultural, economic and social domains. k. the deserving of zakat also on "establishing islamic schools, islamic libraries, and islamic hospitals" in a country whose educational institutions are dominated by secularists and missionaries, in order to protect muslim children from such destructive and demoralizing preaching and protects muslim patients from being exploited by missionary hospitals jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 105 118 116 6. propose models for the implementation of zakat in poverty alleviation this paper would like to suggest, for the further research works, some potential theoretical and empirical models of zakat's implementations in the modern time for the purpose of investment and human capital. a. umar ibn. abdul-aziz model of zakat implementation. (from the above discussion on page 6-7), we can use as a role model for the modern concept of zakat implementation. b. ibn. al-qayyim's economic significance of zakat – his special contributions on this field of zakat is "labor consideration behind different rate of zakat". this system can be used as a guide line for the development of zakat in agricultural sector in economic development for the modern world today. c. some muslim scholars add that the poor may take from zakat an amount equal to the nisab for each person in the family. in this connection, poverty is measured based on "the amount equal to nisab for each person in the family as poverty line", and zakat institution needs to provide (directly or indirectly) an equal fund to the poor for poverty alleviation. d. poverty is measured by using $ 1/day and $ 2/day poverty lines and provide % of gdp required for poverty alleviation equal funds needed to raise the income of the poor by us $ 1/day for all the poor in the group for the year as a percentage, i.e. y = x/gdp x 100. where y = the percentage of gdp required for poverty alleviation x = total amount needed for one year for poverty alleviation n = total number of poor people = % of poor multiplied by total population n x 365 days a year = x. e. model of "propose ladang rakyat (farming of the poor) in kelantan state" in malaysia. the basic concept of this model is a combination between agricultural development of the state government and zakat institution. the target group is poor and needy or poverty alleviation. f. model of three essential elements to performance measurement in zakat collections, disbursements, and expenditures. these are referred to as the "three e's" :3 1) efficiency: output divided by resources consumed. or efficiency is unit cost – the cost of inputs divided by output. 2) effectiveness: how far the output achieves target objectives. quality of service can often be measured and is regarded as an indicator of effectiveness. 3) economy: how actual input costs compare with planned or expected costs. the relationships between efficiency, effectiveness and economy are components of value for money. where 3 (chapter 9, the economics of internal organization: the efficiency of parastatals in ldcs, by p.m. jackson and a.j. palmerp. 195 -209) modern approach of zakat (wan sulaiman bin wan yusoff) 117 they can be measured precisely they are called "performance measure". this model can precisely be used to measure the performance of zakat institution in each country in term of collections, disbursements and expenditures. based on the results of the performance measure – it is recommended to activate and improve zakat institution in order to meet the main objective of poverty alleviation in muslim countries. conclusion zakat is declared as the third pillar (after praying) in islam, without which the structural foundation of islam does not stand. the pillar of zakat in islam is not only a mere charity of collection material means from the rich and distribute them to the one who deserve, but it is rather essential pillar of religious form of worship and its major ritual practices of muslim society. since zakat is one of the "islamic instrument" to solve the economic and social problems of muslim society from the history of prophet mohammad (pbuh) until the end of the day, this paper attempted to highlight a small contribution regarding the effective and efficient methodology of collection, disbursement and expenditure within the modern setting to bring the benefits of zakat to the muslim ummah. we concentrated on how zakat funds can contribute not only for the purpose of consumption for those who are needed but more importantly for the purpose of investment on physical and human capital development for those who are able and willing to work. zakat funds can play an important role in integrated approach to economic development through eradication of illiteracy, diseases, epidemics and poverty. it is stressed that the portion of "fi sabilillah" can go in various forms of jihad – jihad may be educational, journalistic, social, economic or political jihad as much as military jihad. we must remember that in all kinds of jihad, the essential condition is that the action helps make allah's word supreme on earth. acknowledgements i should express my sincere thank to both of my colleagues, assoc. prof. dr. abd al-azim islahi and assis. prof. dr. abdul kader chachi, for their contributions of editorial work and valuable comments of this article. references abdul-wahab, mohd, syed hamid aljunit and et.al. 1995. malaysia case studies. international framework of zakah: dimension and implications. seminar proceedings no. 23. irti. idb. jeddah. pp297378. a.a. islahi. 1984. economic thought of ibn alqayyim (1292 – 1350 a.d.). international centre for research in islamic economics. kaau. jeddah. ksa. a. joshi & m. moore. 1999. enabling environments, social capital, and effective antpoverty programmes. http://www.unesco.org/ost/bpcrop2.htm ahmed, ziauddin. 1991. islam, poverty and income distribution. leicester, u.k: the islamic foundation. ahmad habib. 2004. role of zakat and awqaf in poverty alleviation. occasional paper no. 8 . irti. idb. jeddah. ksa. al-qaradawi, yusuf. 1973. fiqh al-zakah, mu'assat al risalah publishers. 2nd printing beirut (in arabic). al-qaradawi, yusuf . 2000. fiqh al-zakah, a comparative study of zakah. regulations jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 105 118 118 and philosophy in the light of al-quran and sunnah (vol. i & ii), in arabic, and translated by khahf, monzer, islamic economics research center, kau, jeddah chapra, umer. 1993. islam and economic development. islamabad: iiit and islamic research institute. chapra, umer. 2000. the future of economics: an islamic perspective. leicester, u.k: the islamic foundation. david dollar. 1999. aid and poverty reduction, what we know and what else weneed to know. wdr on poverty and development 2000/01. stiglitz summer research workshop on poverty, washington dc. ibn faris, ahmad. 1998. maqayys allughah(circa 395h). dar al fikr publisher, 2nd printing . beirut (in arabic) j.w. mellor. 1999. the structure of growth and poverty reduction. wdr on poverty and development 2000/01. stiglitz summer research workshop on poverty. washington dc. kahf. monzer. 1989. “zakat: unresolved issues in the contemporary fiqh”, journal of islamic economics, 2(1) pp1-22 kahf, monzer. 1999. “zakat: performance in theory and practice”. paper presented at the international conference on islamoc economics towards the 21st century, kuala lumpur, malaysia, august 1999 kahf, monzer. 2004. “shariah and historical aspects of zakah and awqaf”. background paper prepared for islamic research and training institution, idb, jeddah mohammad shafi. 1999. “best practices in poverty reduction and management of social transformation”. http://www. unesco.org/ most/bpcrop2.htm paul cook, colin kick patricck, 1988. “privatization in less developed countries”. hervester wheatsheaf. rafic yunus al masri . 2004. "zakat imposable on income and on capital". journal kau: islamic econ. vol. 17. no. 2, pp 2931 (1425 a.h./ 2004 a.d) r.m. de souza. 2007. reducing poverty by integrating population, health and environment. population reference bureau, washington dc. sadeq, abu al-hasan .1994. a survey of the institution of zakat: issues, theories and administration. jeddah: irti, idb. s. mehrotra, senior economic adviser, unicef. good practices in social policy: lessons from high-achieving countries. http://www.unesco.org/most/bpcrop2.h tm the idb 1440h or 2020g visions, commission finalizes vision document, jeddah, 21.12.2005 u.a. uthman. 1997. an in kind tax on agricultural products, land and livestock: a preliminary study in the comparative economics of taxation", review of islamic economics, volume 4, no. 2, (!997/1418h) v. kozel. 1999. new approaches, new methods, the need for cross disciplinary research on poverty. wdr on poverty and development 2000/01, stiglitz summer research workshop on poverty, washington dc. www.e-zakat.com.my/eng/statistic/agihan asn www.zakat.com.my www.aaoifi.com/main/main.html studi efektivitas pelayanan publik di kecamatan kejaksan kota cirebon jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 51 64 perencanaan kawasan industri terpadu di kabupaten brebes sebagai implikasi pelaksanaan otonomi daerah caroline fakultas ekonomi universitas sultan fatah demak. jalan sultan fatah no. 83, demak 59516, jawa tengah telepon: 0291-681024, fax: 0291-681024 e-mail: carolinehamboro@yahoo.com abstrak: tulisan ini mengkaji secara empiris pengaruh pengembangan kawasan industri terpadu dari kabupaten brebes, merekomendasikan kebijakan model hubungan infrastruktur investasi, dan mengembangkan persyaratan kelembagaan. dengan menggunakan net present value, payback period, laba atas investasi, tingkat pengembalian internal analisis, dan analisis hubungan privat-pemerintah, hasil menunjukkan bahwa pembangunan kawasan industri terpadu dari brebes layak secara finansial. kemitraan dari pihak ketiga dapat dilakukan karena keterbatasan sumber daya pemerintah daerah. alternatif terbaik kemitraan adalah b-o-t (build, operate, dan transfer), yang dicirikan oleh investasi swasta, pembangunan infrastruktur, biaya rendah, kualitas tinggi, menguntungkan, dan efisiensi yang tinggi. kata kunci: otonomi daerah, kawasan industri terpadu, npv, irr, b/c ratio abstract: this paper empirically examines the impact of developing integrated industry area of brebes regency, recommends the policy of infrastructure investment relationship model, and develops institutional requirements. by using net present value, payback period, return on investment, internal rate of return analysis, and privat-government relationship analysis, the results show that development integrated industry area of brebes can go financially. the partnership of third party can be done because of limited resources of local government. the best alternative of partnership is b – o t (build, operate and transfer), which characterized by private investment, infrastructure development, low cost, high quality, profitable, and high efficiency. keywords: otonomi daerah, integrated industry area, npv, irr, b/c ratio pendahuluan penyelenggaraan pemerintah daerah sebagai sub-sistim pemerintahan negara, dimaksudkan untuk meningkatkan efektifitas dan efisiensi penyelenggaraan pemerintahan dan pelayanan masyarakat (uu no. 33 tahun 2004). sebagai daerah otonomi daerah mempunyai wewenang dan tanggungjawab menyelenggarakan kepentingan masyarakat. prinsip dasar pemberian otonomi daerah didasarkan atas pertimbangan bahwa daerahlah yang mengetahui kebutuhan dan standar pelayanan bagi masyarakat di daerahnya. atas dasar pertimbangan ini, maka pemberian otonomi daerah diharapkan mampu memacu pertumbuhan ekonomi dan kesejahteraan masyarakat pada akhirnya. salah satu sektor yang berperan dalam perekonomian secara global adalah sektor industri, oleh karena itu pembangunan kawasan industri di daerah diharapkan dapat jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 51 64 52 meningkatkan perekonomian daerah setempat yang berdampak pada peningkatan perekonomian nasional. berawal dari pemikiran tersebut, maka pemerintah kabupaten brebes dalam hal ini melalui badan perencanaan pembangunan daerah merencanakan kawasan industri teradu (kit) sebagai upaya peningkatan pendaatan daerah dalam mendukung pelaksanaan otonomi daerah yang akan berdampak pada peningkatan perekonomian di daerah dan juga nasional. kawasan industri terpadu di kabupaten brebes diperlukan karena dalam jangka panjang kawasan industri yang saat ini berlokasi di kota-kota besar pada waktu yang akan datang akan mengalami fase jenuh, disamping itu daerah kabupaten brebes dan sekitarnya memerlukan adanya akses yang dapat membuka sekaligus memicu pertumbuhan perekonomian daerah. di kabupaten brebes sebelumnya sudah dialokasikan lahan untuk kawasan industri terpadu yaitu di desa cimohong kecamatan bulakamba. namun karena kurangnya sosiaisasi serta infrastruktur pendukung maka sampai saat ini belum ada investor yang tertarik untuk menanamkan modalnya di kawasan tersebut. penelitian ini bertujuan (1) mengetahui dampak pengembangan kawasan industri terpadu kabupaten brebes dari sisi ekonomi, infrastruktur, teknis dan lingkungan; (2) mengetahui hasil analisa mengenai dampak lingkungan pengembangan kawasan industri terpadu kabupaten brebes; (3) merumuskan kebijakan model/pola kerja sama investasi infrastruktur yang sesuai dan perlu dikembangkan di kawasan industri terpadu kabupaten brebes; (4) mengembangkan pengaturan dan kelembagaan yang diperlukan dalam pengembangan kawasan industri terpadu kabupaten brebes. konsep pengembangan kawasan. perwujudan strategi pembangunan daerah bertujuan untuk meningkatkan kinerja pembangunan dan memperoleh hasil yang lebih optimal terletak pada kemampuan aktualisasi konsep pembangunan wilayah secara utuh dan terpadu (comprehensive and integrated area development concept). pendekatan pembangunan wilayah yang utuh dan terpadu akan mampu mewujudkan efisiensi dan efektivitas fungsi perencanaan pembangunan daerah. dengan kata lain, pendekatan tersebut menganut azas keseluruhan sektor (comprehensive) secara terpadu, bukan lagi penjumlahan (agregatif) masing-masing sektor secara terpisah. dengan konsep demikian maka pelaksanaan pembangunan masing-masing sektor secara otomatis akan berakumulasi (bersinergi) dalam mendukung sasaran pembangunan wilayah yang menjadi konsep induknya. di samping itu, di antara masing-masing sektor secara signifikan akan saling terkait (linkage), mengingat semua sektor berada dalam satu kerangka pembangunan wilayah yang utuh. ada tiga indikator keberhasilan pengembangan wilayah yang dapat dilihat sebagai kesuksesan pembangunan daerah, adalah produktivitas, efisiensi, partisipasi masyarakat, yang semuanya dapat menjamin kesinambungan pelaksanaan suatu program di suatu wilayah atau kawasan. dalam pengembangan kawasan industri, terdapat beberapa pengertian yang terkait dengan kawasan ini, yaitu: zone industri, kawasan industri, kawasan berikat, industrial estate, lingkungan industri kecil, dan kluster industri. konsep pengembangan kawasan industri. untuk menghadapi persaingan di pasar global maupun pasar domestik serta memanfaatkan keunggulan lokasional (locational advantage), pengembangan industri kita harus perencanaan kawasan industri terpadu ... (caroline) 53 diarahkan dan dipersiapkan melalui pembentukan kawasan industri guna mendorong peningkatan kemampuan bersaing secara menyeluruh, dari kemampuan bersaing berdasarkan factor driven ke arah investment driven dan innovation driven. untuk itu, semua stakeholders dalam industri harus dikelompokkan dalam suatu lokasi untuk memfasilitasi dan mendukung proses investasi dan inovasi. ini berarti harus ada interaksi antara industri utama (core industry), penyedia bahan baku, industri pendukung, serta fasilitas pendukung lainnya, seperti layanan riset dan pengembangan (r&d), layanan diklat, layanan distribusi dan transportasi, layanan finansial, dan sebagainya. untuk mengakomodasikan semua ini, kluster industri (industrial cluster) adalah salah satu konsep yang dapat digunakan. industri dan stakeholders berada pada satu lokasi geografi untuk menghadapi globalisasi dan memanfaatkan efek keterkaitan (linkage) dan networking secara interaktif. sehingga pengertian kluster industri adalah pengelompokan industri yang saling berhubungan secara interaktif yang merupakan aglomerasi perusahaan-perusahaan yang membentuk partnership, baik sebagai industri pendukung maupun sebagai industri terkait. manfaatnya untuk mendorong spesialisasi produksi pada suatu daerah/wilayah dan mendorong keunggulan komparatif menjadi keunggulan kompetitif. keunggulan dibentuknya kluster industri adalah meningkatkan efisiensi, mengurangi biaya transportasi dan transaksi, mengurangi biaya sosial, menciptakan aset secara kolektif, dan meningkatkan terciptanya inovasi. konsentrasi spasial kawasan industri. konsentrasi spasial merupakan pengelompokkan dari aktivitas ekonomi secara spasial dalam suatu lokasi tertentu dan saling terkait. hal ini dapat ditemui pada konsentrasi industri teknologi tinggi di silicon valley (ellison dan glaeser, 1997), konsentrasi spasial pada kota tepi air (fujita dan mori, 1996), kluster industri (porter, 1990; 1998), serta aglomerasi perkotaan (fujita dan thiesse, 2002). krugman (1991) menyatakan bahwa konsentrasi spasial merupakan aspek yang ditekankan dari aktivitas ekonomi secara geografis dan dan sangat penting dalam penentuan lokasi industri. menurut krugman, dalam konsentrasi aktivitas ekonomi secara spasial, terdapat tiga hal yang saling terkait yaitu interaksi antara skala ekonomi, biaya transportasi dan permintaan. untuk mendapatkan dan meningkatkan kekuatan skala ekonomis, perusahaan-perusahaan cenderung berkonsentrasi secara spasial dan melayani seluruh pasar dari suatu lokasi. sedangkan untuk meminimalisasi biaya transportasi, perusahaan perusahaan cenderung berlokasi pada wilayah yang memiliki permintaan lokal yang besar, akan tetapi permintaan lokal yang besar cenderung berlokasi di sekitar terkonsentrasinya aktifitas ekonomi, seperti komplek industri maupun perkotaan. menurut weber (fujita et al, 1999; 26-27), ada 3 faktor yang menjadi alasan perusahaan pada industri dalam menentukan lokasi, yaitu: (1) perbedaan biaya transportasi. produsen cenderung mencari lokasi yang memberikan keuntungan berupa penghematan biaya transportasi serta dapat mendorong efisiensi dan efektivitas produksi. dalam perspektif yang lebih luas, coase (1937) mengemukakan tentang penghematan biaya transaksi (biaya transportasi, biaya transaksi, biaya kontrak, biaya koordinasi dan biaya komunikasi) dalam penentuan lokasi perusahaan. (2) perbedaan biaya upah. produsen cendejurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 51 64 54 rung mencari lokasi dengan tingkat upah tenaga kerja yang lebih rendah dalam melakukan aktivitas ekonomi sedangkan tenaga kerja cenderung mencari lokasi dengan tingkat upah yang lebih tinggi. adanya suatu wilayah dengan tingkat upah yang tinggi mendorong tenaga kerja untuk terkonsentrasi pada wilayah tersebut. fenomena ini dapat ditemui pada kota-kota besar dengan keanekaragaman tinggi seperti jakarta maupun kota yang terspesialisasi seperti kudus maupun kediri. (3) keuntungan dari konsentrasi industri secara spasial. konsentrasi spasial akan menciptakan keuntungan yang berupa penghematan lokasi dan penghematan urbanisasi. penghematan lokasi terjadi apabila biaya produksi perusahaan pada suatu industri menurun ketika produksi total dari industri tersebut meningkat (terjadi increasing return of scale). hal ini terjadi pada perusahaan pada industri yang berlokasi secara berdekatan. penghematan urbanisasi terjadi bila biaya produksi suatu perusahaan menurun ketika produksi seluruh perusahaan pada berbagai tingkatan aktivitas ekonomi dalam wilayah yang sama meningkat. penghematan karena berlokasi di wilayah yang sama ini terjadi akibat skala perekonomian kota yang besar, dan bukan akibat skala suatu jenis industri. penghematan urbanisasi telah memunculkan perluasan wilayah metropolitan (extended metropolitan regions). dalam perspektif yang sedikit berbeda tentang keuntungan konsentrasi spasial, marshal (1920) mengemukakan pemikiran tentang externalitas positif dan menjelaskan mengapa produsen cenderung berlokasi dekat dengan produsen lain (dorongan untuk berlokasi dekat dengan perusahaan lain disebut dengan agglomerasi). menurut marshal, konsentrasi spasial didorong oleh ketersediaan tenaga kerja yang terspesialisasi dimana berkumpulnya perusahaan pada suatu lokasi akan mendorong berkumpulnya tenaga kerja yang terspesialisasi, sehingga menguntungkan perusahaan dan tenaga kerja. selain itu, berkumpulnya perusahaan atau industri yang saling terkait akan dapat meningkatkan efisiensi dalam pemenuhan kebutuhan input yang terspesialisasi yang lebih baik dan lebih murah. yang terakhir, marshal menyatakan bahwa jarak yang tereduksi dengan adanya konsentrasi spasial akan memperlancar arus informasi dan pengetahuan (knowledge spillover) pada lokasi tersebut. pandangan marshal tentang industri yang terkonsentrasi di suatu tempat dan saling terkait disebut industrial cluster atau industrial district. menurut marshal, kluster industri pada dasarnya merupakan kelompok aktifitas produksi aktifitas produksi yang amat terkonsentrasi secara spasial dan kebanyakan terspesialisasi pada satu atau dua industri utama saja. senada dengan pendapat marshal, porter menyatakan bahwa kluster adalah perusahaan-perusahaan yang yang terkonsentrasi secara spasial dan saling terkait dalam industri. perusahaan-perusahaan dalam industri yang terkonsentrasi secara spasial tersebut juga terkait dengan institusi-institusi yang dapat mendukung industri secara praktis. kluster meliputi kumpulan perusahaan dan hal yang terkait dalam industri yang penting dalam kompetisi. kluster selalu memperluas aliran menuju jalur pemasaran dan konsumen, tidak ketinggalan juga jalur menuju produsen produk komplementer, dan perusahaan lain dalam industri yang terkait, baik terkait dalam keahlian, teknologi maupun input. dalam kluster juga tercakup pemerintah dan institusi yang lain (porter, 1990; 1998). kluster menginterprestasikan jaringan yang terbentuk dan menjadi semakin kokoh dengan sendirinya tidak hanya oleh perusahaan dalam kluster tetapi oleh organisasi perencanaan kawasan industri terpadu ... (caroline) 55 yang lain yang terkait sehingga menciptakan kolaborasi dan kompetisi dalam tingkatan yang tinggi sehingga dapat meningkatkan daya saing berdasarkan keunggulan kompetitif (raines p, 2002). ada 3 bentuk kluster berdasarkan perbedaan tipe dari eksternalitas,perbedaan tipe dari orientasi, dan intervensi kebijakan (kolehmainen, 2002): 1) the industrial districts cluster. industrial district cluster atau yang biasa disebut dengan marshalian industrial district adalah kumpulan dari perusahaan pada industri yang terspesialisasi dan terkonsentrasi secara spasial dalam suatu wilayah (marshal,1920). pandangan marshal mengenai industrial district masih relevan sampai saat ini dan secara empiris masih dapat dijumpai. dalam perspektif lebih modern (krugman,1991; porter, 1990), industrial district cluster berbasis pada eksternalitas sebagai berikut: (a) penurunan biaya transaksi (misalnya, biaya komunikasi dan transportasi). (b) tenaga kerja yang terspesialisasi (misalnya, penurunan biaya rekruitmen tenaga kerja yang terspesialisasi dan penurunan biaya untuk pengembangan sumber daya manusia). (c) ketersediaan sumber daya, input dan infrastruktur yang spesifik dan terspesialisasi (misalnya pelayanan spesial dan tersedia sesuai dengan kebutuhan lokal). (d) ketersediaan ide dan informasi yang maksimal (misalnya mobilitas tenaga kerja, knowledge spillover, hubungan informal antar perusahaan). intinya, industrial district, terjadi secara alamiah dan bersifat “open membership”. dalam industrial district tidak memerlukan investasi dalam membangun relationship. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa jenis kluster ini dapat muncul tanpa memerlukan usaha untuk memunculkannya. selain itu ciri-ciri dari industrial district dapat teridentifikasikan dalam area metropolitan dan kota-kota lain yang memprodusi jasa dalam skala yang tinggi. (gordon dan mccann, 2000). 2) the industrial complex cluster. industrial complex cluster berbasis pada hubungan antar perusahaan yang teridentifikasi dan bersifat stabil yang terwujud dalam perilaku spasial dalam suatu wilayah. hubungan antarperusahaan sengaja dimunculkan untuk membentuk jaringan perdagangan dalam kluster. model kompleks industri pada dasarnya lebih stabil daripada model distrik industri, karena diperlukannya investasi dalam menjalin hubungan antara perusahaan-peruahaan dalam kluster ini, dimana hubungan yang terjadi berdasarkan atas pertimbangan yang mantap dalam pengambilan keputusan. dengan kata lain kluster ini (komplek indusri) terjadi karena perusahaan-perusaaan ingin meminimalkan biaya transaksi spasial (biaya transportasi dan komunikasi) dan memiliki tujuan-tujuan tertentu baik secara implisit ataupun eksplisit dengan menempatkan perusahaannya dekat dengan perusahaanperusahaan lain. dalam beberapa kasus, terjadinya kluster industri didorong oleh adanya suatu perusahaan yang mengekspor produk akhir ke pasar internasional, yang menjadi mesin penggerak bagi perusahaanperusahaan lain untuk berada pada kluster tersebut. komplek industri tidak terbangun secara alami dan berbasis pada hubungan saling ketergantungan yang tidak simetris antara perusahaan besar dan kecil. keadaan ini dapat menghalangi penyerapan dan pengembangan inovasi dan menempatkan perusahaan kecil pada kedudukan yang yang rendah dalam menciptakan investasi dalam penelitian dan pengembangan serta pemasaran. dominasi dari perusahaan besar yang menjadi motor dalam kluster tersebut dapat berdampak negatif bagi iklim usaha dan peluang pada kluster secara keseluruhan. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 51 64 56 3) the social network cluster. social network cluster menekankan pada aspek sosial pada aktifitas ekonomi dan norma-norma institusi dan jaringan. model ini berdasarkan pada kepercayaan dan bahkan hubungan informal antarpersonal. hubungan interpersonal dapat menggantikan hubungan kontrak pasar atau hubungan hirarki organisasi pada proses internal dalam kluster. harrison (1992) menyatakan bahwa konsentrasi spasial pada kluster ini merupakan konteks alami yang terbentuk karena adanya hubungan informal dan modal sosial yang berupa kepercayaan, karena hal tersebut yang membentuk dan menjaga melalui persamaan sosial dan sejarah dan terus menerus melakukan kegiatan bersama dan saling berbagi. perlu diingat bahwa jaringan sosial antar perusahaan tidak perlu dibentuk dalam ruang lingkup regional ataupun lokal karena kedekatan wilayah dan budaya dapat memfasilitasi terbentuknya proses tersebut. dampak pengembangan kawasan industri. kawasan industri adalah suatu zona/ wilayah yang ditetapkan oleh pemerintah sebagai kegiatan industri. di dalam zona perindustrian tersebut, terdapat industri yang sifatnya individual (yang berdiri sendiri) dan industri-industri yang sifatnya mengelompok dalam kawasan industri (industrial estate). di indonesia sendiri, pada tahun 2005 sudah terdapat 203 kawasan industri yang tersebar di berbagai wilayah indonesia dengan luas ±67.000 ha. dari jumlah tersebut baru beroperasi 64 kawasan dengan total area ±20.000 ha, dan rata-rata tingkat pemanfaatan ±44 persen yang di dalamnya terdapat ±60.000 industri. pemerintah sendiri telah banyak mengeluarkan kebijakan-kebijakan untuk mendorong terciptanya kawasan industri di berbagai daerah-daerah untuk menarik para investor asing untuk menanamkan modalnya di kawasan perindustrian yang sudah ada. salah satu kebijakan pemerintah adalah dengan strategi pengembagan ftz (free trade zone) atau sez (special economic zone). dimana kebijakan ini diberlakukan di suatu kawasan industri berupa pemberian fasilitas dan insentif fiskal yang amat menarik dan bersifat khusus sehingga investor dapat tertarik untuk membuka pabriknya pada kawasan industri tersebut. selain itu usaha pemerintah yang lain untuk pengembangan kawasan industri adalah dengan pembangunan kelengkapan infrastruktur yang menunjang usaha-usaha produksi di kawasan industri ini. setiap perkembangan yang terjadi mempunyai dampak atau pengaruh terhadap lingkungan di sekitarnya maka dalam hal ini perkembangan kawasan mempunyai dampak terhadap perkembangan kota disekitarnya. keseriusan pemerintah dalam pengembangan kawasan industri bukanlah suatu hal yang mengherankan melihat dampak positif/ keuntungan yang dapat diperoleh dari pengembangan kawasan industri bagi perkembangan lingkungan di sekitarnya. keuntungan pengembangan kawasan industri: 1. memacu pertumbuhan ekonomi yang lebih tinggi. contoh terhadap hal ini dapat dilihat di provinsi banten, di mana pencapaian pertumbuhan ekonomi provinsi banten pada akhir 2006 mencapai 6,24 persen, atau lebih tinggi dari pertumbuhan ekonomi rata-rata nasional, sedangkan pdrb (produk domestik nasional bruto) daerah pada tahun 2006 mencapai 94 trilyun. besarnya pdrb ini berasal dari sektor industri yang memberikan kontribusi hingga 49,75 persen. pertumbuhan ekonomi provinsi banten hampir setengahnya dipengaruhi oleh sektor industri, bahkan pertumbuhan ekonomi daerahnya dapat melebihi perumbuhan ekonomi rata-rata perencanaan kawasan industri terpadu ... (caroline) 57 nasional, yang tentu saja tidak dapat terlepas dari peranan sektor industri. 2. kemudahan dalam hal penyediaan sarana infrastruktur yang diperlukan oleh pabrikpabrik dalam melakukan produksinya. dengan menggabungkan beberapa industri dalam satu kawasan, maka pemenuhan fasilitas sarana dan prasarana yang menunjang dan diperlukan untuk proses industri dapat dipenuhi lebih mudah karena dikumpulkan dalam satu kawasan. berbeda halnya apabila tidak terdapat kawasan industri, dimana lokasi industri yang satu dengan yang lain terletak berjauhan, maka sarana yang diperlukan untuk proses produksi cenderung susah dilakukan dan lebih mahal karena penggunaannya yang cenderung untuk keperluan sendiri. namun dengan adanya kawasan industri yang merupakan aglomerasi/pengumpulan dari beberapa industri, maka pemenuhan kebutuhan sarana dan prasarana industri dapat lebih mudah, karena dikelompokkan pada satu kawasan, dan lebih murah sifatnya, karena dapat digunakan secara bersama-sama. 3. membuka lapangan pekerjaan baru. dengan bertumbuhnya kawasan perindustrian, maka akan membuka lapangan pekerjaan baru di pabrik yang dapat menyerap ribuan buruh/tenaga kerja. dengan tambahnya lapangan kerja tersebut, maka pendapatan masyarakat dapat menjadi meningkat yang disertai juga dengan peningkatan sdm-nya. masyarakat akan memperoleh pekerjaan dan memperoleh pelatihan dan peningkatan pengetahuan dengan bekerja di pabrik-pabrik perindustrian. untuk bekerja di suatu pabrik, pekerja tentu saja harus memiliki keahlian dan keterampilan. untuk memenuhi hal ini, maka salah satu usaha yang dilakukan pemerintah berupa program magang di kawasan industri yang dikhususkan kepada para masyarakat di sekitar lingkungan kawasan industri. dengan program tersebut, sdm dan keterampilan masyarakat diharapkan dapat meningkat yang nantinya dapat menghasilkan tenaga-tenaga kerja yang terampil dan siap bekerja. 4. peningkatan pendapatan daerah melalui pajak daerah. meningkatnya pertumbuhan ekonomi suatu daerah maka juga akan meningkatkan pendapatan pajak daerahnya. dengan bertambahnya pajak daerah, maka pemerintah dapat lebih mengembangkan pembangunan di sekitar kawasan. 5. pemudahan pengelolaan lingkungannya. pengelolaan limbah secara terintegrasi dengan mudah bisa dilakukan. dengan dikelompokkannya industri dalam satu kawasan, maka amdal-nya berupa amdal kawasan, sehingga lebih mempermudah dalam pengecekan dan pengontrolan lingkungannya. pengeloaan limbah secara terintegrasi (integrated waste management) dapat dengan mudah dilakukan sehingga pengontrolannya juga dapat lebih mudah dilakukan. 6. mengurangi arus urbanisasi. masyarakat dari desa tidak lagi hanya menargetkan kota sebagai tempat mencari pekerjaan, tetapi cukup ke kawasan industri yang menyediakan lapangan kerja cukup banyak. para warga kota yang bekerja di kawasan industri juga cenderung akan memilih tinggal di daerah kawasan industri apabila kawasan industri telah menyediakan fasilitas hunian yang memadai. sehingga peluang arus transmigrasi dari kota ke daerah pinggiran kota menjadi semakin besar yang tentu saja dapat mengurangi kepadatan penduduk kota sebagai nilai positifnya. selain memberikan dampak-dampak positif, pengembangan kawasan industri juga memiliki dampak-dampak yang negatif. dampak yang negatif/kerugian ini kebanyakan berkaitan dengan aspek lingkungan. misalnya saja terjadinya pencemaran dan jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 51 64 58 kerusakan lingkungan akibat polusi dan limbah yang dihasilkan dari pabrik-pabrik di kawasan industri. polusi dari pabrik-pabrik di kawasan industri ini biasanya berupa polusi udara, air, kebisingan, ataupun tanah, yang umumnya menerima dampak negatif dari polusi ini adalah warga yang tinggal di kawasan industri dan di sekitar kawasan industri. metode lokasi lokasi perencanaan kawasan industri terpadu kabupaten brebes adalah desa cimohong kecamatan bulakamba kabupaten brebes. alat analisis menurut mulyadi (1997:284) yang menulis teori investasi yang dalam hal ini dikaitkan dengan kelayakan program dan epidemologi dan kelayakan ekonomi dari aspek keuangan. kelayakan ekonomi ditinjau dari sudut aspek keuangan menggunakan metode yang dilakukan untuk menilai investasi, dilakukan dengan cara: 1. analisis net present value (npv). analisis ini untuk menilai kelayakan investasi dengan menghitung selisih antara nilai sekarang dari penerimaan kas bersih yang akan datang dengan nilai sekarang investasi awal. semakin besar npv positif, investasi semakin menguntungkan. npv dapat dihitung dengan rumus seperti berikut:     n 0i i t k)(1 a npv dimana; k adalah discount rate; at adalah cashflow periode k, n adalah usia ekonomi. 2. analisis payback period. analisis ini untuk mengetahui periode yang diperlukan dalam pengembalian investasi seluruhnya. semakin pendek payback period-nya, proyek akan semakin baik. payback period dihitung dengan; (a) membagi jumlah investasi dengan penerimaan kas bersih (proceeds) tiap periode, bila proceeds sama setiap periodenya. (b) mengurangkan jumlah investasi dengan penerimaan kas bersih (proceeds) yang diterima, bila besar proceeds tidak sama setiap periodenya. 3. analisis return on investment (roi). analisis ini untuk melihat apakah suatu proyek layak sampai pada tahap pengembangan dan pengujian. perhitungan roi dapat dilakukan dengan bermacam-macam cara, salah satunya yang paling terkenal adalah dengan membandingkan penghasilan tahunan ratarata sesudah pajak dan depresiasi dengan investasi rata-rata. roi = e/i dimana; roi adalah return on investment, e adalah penghasilan tahunan rata-rata, i adalah investasi rata-rata yang diperlukan untuk sebuah proyek. pendekatan ini memerlukan adanya estimasi tentang kelangsungan hidup yang diharapkan dari produk tersebut dan pendapat tentang kemungkinan penjualan serta biaya yang berkaitan dengan produk tersebut setiap tahunnya. 4. analisis hasil pengembalian (internal rate of return)/irr. yaitu tingkat bunga yang menyamakan nilai sekarang arus kas dengan pengeluaran investasi. hasil dan pembahasan hasil perhitungan dalam pembangunan kawasan industri terpadu di desa cimohong, investasi yang dibutuhkan untuk pembangunan kawasan industri cimohong adalah sebesar: rp905.159.154.520, perencanaan kawasan industri terpadu ... (caroline) 59 dari investasi tersebut didapatkan hasil perhitungan kelayakan finansial sebagai berikut: 1. estimasi harga jual masing-masing kavling berdasarkan skala industrinya: (a) kavling industri kecil (15%) tipe 1 (1920 m2) 1 unit rp3.072.000.000/unit; tipe 2 (2000 m2) 36 unit rp3.200.000.000/unit; tipe 3 (2400 m2)5 unitrp3.840.000.000/unit. (b) kavling industri sedang (35%) tipe 1 (5000 m2) 44 unit rp8.000.000.000/unit; tipe 2 (5920 m2) 2 unit rp9.472.000.000/unit; tipe 3 (7000 m2) 2 unit rp11.200.000.000/unit. (c) kavling industri besar (50%) tipe 1 (9700 m2) 13 unit rp15.520.000.000/ unit; tipe 2 (10000 m2) 11 unit rp16.000.000.000/ unit; tipe 3 (12000 m2) 2 unit rp 19.200.000.000/ unit. 2. estimasi penerimaan sewa dari beberapa fasilitas: persewaan penginapan (unit) rp600.000/ tahun kantor perbankan (m2) rp 100.000/m2 show room (m2) rp 100.000/m2 kantin (m2) rp 100.000/m2 minimarket (m2) rp 100.000/m2 estimasi biaya dalam pengelolaan kawasan industri tersebut, meliputi biaya operasional, biaya pemeliharaan,biaya gaji, biaya asuransi, biaya depresiasi, dan lain-lain. hasil estimasi cash flow, dengan asumsi masa konstruksi satu tahun, dan umur ekonomis adalah 25 (duapuluh lima) tahun. dengan discount factor 10%, 12% dan 14%, didapatkan hasil sebagai berikut: net present value: df=10%: rp 291.723.259.253.575 df = 12%: rp 98.236.030.931.190 df = 14%: rp (50.159.980.993.680) internal rate return: 13,266% benefit cost ratio df=10%: 1,32; df=12% 1,11; df=14%: 0,94. pay back periode: 15 tahun dari hasil perhitungan di atas, dapat disimpulkan bahwa secara finansial proyek bisa dilaksanakan atau layak. hal ini bisa dilihat dari nilai npv yang positif, benefit cost ratio di atas 1, nilai irr masih di atas tingkat bunga yang berlaku. kawasan industri cimohong direncanakan merupakan kawasan atau pusat pengembangan berbagai industri dengan pengelolaan secara terpadu. prospek pasar kawasan industri terpadu desa cimohong kabupaten brebes potensial untuk pengembangan industri terutama industri berbahan baku pertanian (agroindustri). kawasan industri terpadu di desa cimohong diharapkan menjadi pemicu utama dalam memperkuat kabupaten brebes untuk menarik investor, dengan beberapa keuntungan yang bisa didapatkan, yaitu: (a) rencana pengawasan perizinan dalam satu atap, (b) promosi investasi, dengan adanya usaha resmi diharapkan investasi yang dilakukan oleh pengusaha/investor dapat berkembang dengan baik, didukung oleh suasana kondusif dari berbagai aspek, terutama keamanan dan tidak adanya demonstrasi buruh di kabupaten brebes. rencana kerja sama pemerintah dan swasta. investasi merupakan salah satu faktor yang penting untuk meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah. makin besar arus investasi, dapat memberikan peluang munculnya kegiatan-kegiatan usaha yang lain. implikasinya adalah meningkatnya kesempatan kerja dan peluang terjadinya peningkatan pad. usaha pemda untuk meningkatkan pad perlu terus dipikirkan tanpa harus membejurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 51 64 60 bani rakyatnya, sehingga dapat mengembangkan otonominya. masih terdapat peluang yang dapat dimanfaatkan oleh daerah untuk mendukung sumber pembiayaan dan investasi daerah untuk mendukung implementasi otonomi daerah yang pelaksanaannya dapat dilakukan oleh para pelaku ekonomi daerah termasuk bumn, bumd, swasta, dan masyarakat. diperlukan adanya perhatian yang serius dalam upaya meningkatkan efisiensi sektor publik, sekaligus mengupayakan agar administrasi negara mampu menelurkan berbagai kiat dan terobosan dalam menciptakan iklim yang kondusif bagi berkembangnya sektor swasta. keterbatasan yang membelenggu sektor publik bukannya merupakan halangan jika kita mampu mendayagunakan kekuatan dan potensi sektor swasta yang mulai berkembang. pola kemitraan sektor publik dan swasta merupakan harapan baru dalam mendobrak keterbatasan. acapkali daerah memiliki aset yang sangat potensial untuk dimanfaatkan atau dikembangkan, namun upaya-upaya ke arah itu terhalang oleh terbatasnya sumber dana atau akses ke sumber dana atau keterbatasan kemampuan sdm dalam menggunausahakan aset tersebut. di sisi lain swasta atau masyarakat merupakan pihak yang dalam banyak hal, mempunyai potensi pendanaan dan teknologi yang perlu diproduktifkan, dengan demikian melalui kerja sama antara pemerintah daerah dengan swasta atau masyarakat dapat memberikan nilai tambah dan keuntungan kedua belah pihak. kerja sama antara pemerintah daerah dan swasta dapat memberikan keuntungan berupa uang dan merupakan strategi diversifikasi resiko, di mana dengan kerja sama ini resiko pemerintah daerah menjadi kecil atau bahkan tanpa ikut menanggung resiko sama sekali. di indonesia, pola kerja sama antara lain diatur dalam peraturan presiden nomor 67 tahun 2005 tentang kerja sama pemerintah daerah dengan badan usaha dalam penyediaan infrastruktur. bentuk kerja sama antara sektor publik dan swasta. kerja sama pemerintah daerah dengan swasta idealnya didasarkan pada win-win solution partnership, artinya kerja sama tersebut dilakukan dengan kesadaran dari dua belah pihak atas keuntungan timbal balik yang akan dihasilkan dalam kerja sama tersebut. pemerintah daerah dalam pengertian kerja sama pemerintah daerah termasuk di dalamnya bumd/perusahaan daerah. oleh karena itu perusahaan daerah mempunyai peluang untuk mengembangkan dan meningkatkan usaha melalui kerja sama dengan pihak swasta. pihak ketiga menurut permendagri nomor 3 tahun 1986 adalah instansi atau badan usaha atau perorangan yang berada di luar organisasi pemerintah daerah, antara lain pemerintah pusat, pemerintah daerah lainnya, bumn, bumd, koperasi, swasta nasional atau swasta asing yang tunduk pada hukum nasional bentuk kerja sama secara garis besar dikelompokkan dalam dua bentuk, yaitu: (1). kerja sama pengelolaan (joint operation). kerja sama ini dapat dilakukan melalui berbagai model, yaitu: sewa tambah guna (contract add and operate/cao), rehabilitasi guna serah (rehabilitate, operate and transfer/ rot), bangun serah (built and transfer/bt), bangun guna serah (built, operate, and transfer/bot), bangun serah sewa (built, transfer and rent/btr), bangun sewa serah (built, rent and transfer/brt), bangun kelola miliki (built, operate, and own/boo), dan kerja sama operasi. (2) kerja sama usaha patungan (joint venture). pemda bersama-sama dengan swasta perencanaan kawasan industri terpadu ... (caroline) 61 dapat mendirikan perseroan terbatas yang mengacu pada undang-undang nomor 1 tahun 1995. langkah strategis pemilihan kerja sama. untuk dapat mencapai sasaran secara optimal, maka pilihan untuk melakukan kerja sama perlu diletakkan dalam suatu kerangka strategis. sebagaimana dilakukan oleh perusahaan dalam rangka menjalin kerja sama strategis untuk mengembangkan bisnisnya. kerangka pikir yang biasa dipakai adalah menggunakan model manajemen strategis. menurut usman (1996) beberapa kekuatan dan kelemahan pemanfaatan dana sektor swasta dapat dilihat pada tabel 1. berdasarkan tabel 1, walaupun terdapat beberapa kelemahan yang mungkin timbul dengan adanya kerja sama pemerintah daerah dengan swasta, namun secara umum aspek positif yang ditimbulkannya lebih dominan dibandingkan dengan aspek negatifnya yaitu bangun guna serah (bot). bentuk kerja sama bot dikenal pada transaksi-transaksi yang obyeknya berupa tanah. kekayaan daerah yang berupa tanah dan fasilitas-fasilitas yang ada di atasnya yang memiliki potensi ekonomi yang tinggi dialihkan pemanfaatannya kepada swasta, dengan cara pihak swasta tersebut atas biayanya sendiri membangun bangunan berikut fasilitas komersiilnya serta mendayagunakan bangunan dan fasilitas tersebut untuk suatu jangka waktu tertentu. biasanya pada awal kerja sama pemda juga akan menerima kompensasi berupa uang dari pihak swasta dan mempunyai hak tabel 1. kekuatan dan kelemahan kerja sama dengan sektor swasta aspek kekuatan kelemahan efisiensi dengan masuknya kantor swasta maka perusahaan akan beroperasi dengan lebih efisien tidak ada kelemahan yang menonjol persiapan dilakukan bersama-sama dengan pihak swasta, sehingga mudah memperhatikan berbagai aspek akan lebih ketat adanya keterlibatan ihak swasta pendanaan pemda/perusda tidak perlu menyediakan dana dalam jumlah yang besar dalam penyertaan modal apabila modal sawsta banyak berasal dari luar negeri, maka perlu diperhatikan resiko nilai tukar pembagian resiko terjadi pembagian resiko antara pemda/perusda dengan swasta tidak ada kelemahan yang menonjol desentralisasi meningkatkan kewenangan pemda tambah wewenang menyebabkan tambahan tanggung jawab partisipasi swasta meningkatkan peran swasta dalam pembangunan daerah tidak ada kelemahan yang menonjol penentuan tarif pemerintah tetap mempunyai kekuatan dalam menentukan tarif tanpa danya konrol yang kuat dari pemerintah, swasta dapat menerapkan tarif yang memberatkan masyarakat alih teknologi akan terjadi alih teknologi dari sektor swasta ke sektor pemerintah tidak ada kelemahan yang menonjol makro ekonomi pinjaman pemerintah diganti dengan sumber swasta tidak ada kelemahan yang menonjol jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 51 64 62 untuk memanfaatkan suatu area dari bangunan tersebut tanpa pembayaran apapun ke pihak swasta. selama masa bot, resiko yang terjadi atas bangunan dan fasilitas yang dibangun swasta akan merupakan tanggungan swasta karena secara hukum kepemilikan bangunan dan fasilitas masih menjadi milik pihak swasta. berdasarkan tabel 1 terdapat beberapa kelemahan yang mungkin timbul dengan adanya kerja sama pemerintah daerah dengan swasta, namun secara umum aspek positif yang ditimbulkannya lebih dominan dibandingkan dengan aspek negatifnya. di indonesia, pola kerja sama antara pemerintah daerah dengan swasta sebenarnya diatur dalam: undang-undang nomor 32 tahun 2004 tentang pemerintahan daerah, peraturan pemerintah republik indonesia nomor 50 tahun 2007 tentang tata cara pelaksanaan kerja sama daerah, peraturan presiden nomor 67 tahun 2005 tentang kerja sama pemerintah dengan badan usaha dalam penyediaan infrastruktur, peraturan menteri dalam negeri nomor 61 tahun 2007 tentang pedoman teknis pengelolaan keuangan badan layanan umum daerah, dan peraturan menteri dalam negeri nomor 69 tahun 2007 tentang kerja sama pembangunan perkotaan. tujuan utama pelaksanaan kerja sama antara pemerintah daerah/perusda dengan pihak ketiga adalah untuk meningkatkan perekonomian daerah dan menembah pendapatan daerah. secara umum, tujuan dilakukannya kerja sama adalah meningkatkan efisiensi dan efektivitas pembiayaan, melalui dana dari masyarakat untuk kepentingan pembangunan, usaha untuk meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah melalui perluasan dan peningkatan pembangunan, meningkatkan pendapatan daerah dengan memanfaatkan hasil-hasil pembangunan masyarakat, mendorong partisipasi masyarakat dalam pembangunan daerah, mendayagunakan aset daerah secara optimal, khususnya aset yang masih dapat ditingkatkan penggunaannya, adanya alih teknologi yang digunakan dalam bot transfer resiko resiko pembangunan resiko konstruksi resiko operasi 100% dari resiko 100% dari resiko 100% dari resiko pemerintah swasta resiko rendah resiko tinggi resiko rendah resiko tinggi resiko sangat rendah resiko sangat tinggi gambar 1. strategi diversifikasi resiko kerja sama bot perencanaan kawasan industri terpadu ... (caroline) 63 pengelolaan proyek yang dapat dimanfaatkan sumber daya manusia di pemda, terhindarinya penjualan aset daerah yang potensial kepada swasta, terciptanya lapangan pekerjaan yang dapat mendorong dan mendayagunakan tenaga kerja setempat untuk bekerja di sektor industri, dan sebagai katalisator penyerapan tenaga kerja ke kota-kota besar. kesimpulan kesimpulan dari hasil analisis pada pembahasan sebelumnya adalah (1) pembangunan kawasan industri terpadu di desa cimohong dinyatakan layak secara finansial. (2) kemitraan dengan pihak ketiga, dilakukan dengan pertimbangan terdapatnya keterbatasan pihak pemda. bentuk kemitraan seperti yang diatur dalam perda kabupaten brebes no 5 tahun 2006 tentang kemitraan daerah. dengan melihat beberapa alternatif, yang paling menguntungkan adalah bentuk b–o–t (build, operate and transfer), dicirikan dengan adanya investasi swasta, pembangunan sarana, biaya rendah, kualitas tinggi, menguntungkan, efisiensi tinggi. dalam rangka pelaksanaan otonomi daerah seperti yang diamanatkan oleh undangundang nomor 33 tahun 2004 tentang pemerintahan daerah dan undang-undang nomor 34 tahun 2004 tentang perimbangan keuangan pemerintah pusat dan daerah, disebutkan bahwa suatu daerah yang tidak mampu membiayai sumber pelaksanaan otonomi daerah akan di-merger (digabungkan) atau dihapuskan. berdasarkan kebutuhan dan tuntutan zaman maka perlu adanya perluasan wilayah dalam rangka menambah sumber penerimaan daerah, yaitu salah satu cara untuk meningkatkan pendapatan asli daerah (pad) kabupaten brebes adalah membuat perencanaan kawasan industri terpadu. daftar pustaka bahl, roy, 1999, implementation rule fiscal desentralisation, atlanta: international studies program school of policy studies, georinia state university. caroline, 2004, analisis penerimaan retribusi pasar kota salatiga, semarang: undip (tesis yang tidak dipublikasikan) ellison, g. and glaeser, e. 1997. “geographic concentration in us manufacturing industries: a dartboard approach”. journal political economy. vol. 105. pp 889 927. fujita, m. and t, mori. 1996. “the role of ports in making of major cities: self agglomeration and hub effect”. journal of development economics. vol 49, pp. 93120. fujita, m. and thiesse, j.f. 2002. economics of agglomeration: cities, industrial location, and regional growth. cambridge: cambridge university press. gordon ,i.r. and mccann, p. 2000. “industrial clusters: complexess, agglomeration and/or social network?” urban studies. vol 37. harrisons, b. 1992. “industrial districs: old wine in new bottles?” regional studies, vol 26. kolehmainen, j. 2002. territorial agglomeration as a local innovation environment. mit industrial performance center. working paper. kristiadi, j.b. 1985, masalah sekitar peningkatan pendapatan daerah, prisma no. 12, tahun xiv, jakarta: lp3es. krugman, p. 1991. geography and trade. cambridge: mit press. kuncoro, mudrajat, 1995, desentralisasi fisjurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 51 64 64 kal di indonesia, prisma, no. 4 tahun. xxiv mardiasmo, 2001, pengawasan, pengendalian dan pemeriksaan kinerja pemerintah daerah dalam melaksanakan otonomi daerah, jurnal bisnis dan akuntansi, vol. 3, no. 2, tahun 2001. mulyadi, 1997, akuntansi manajemen, konsep, manfaat dan rekayasa, edisi kedua, yogyakarta: bagian penerbitan sekolah tinggi ilmu ekonomi ykpn. porter, m. e. 1990. the competitive advantage of nations. new york: free press. porter, m. e. 1998. the competitive advantage of nations (with a new foreword), new york: the free press. raines, p. 2002. “local or national competitive advantage”. european policies research centre, university of strathclyde, glasgow. republik indonesia, 2001, undang-undang no. 34 tahun 2000 tentang perubahan atas undang-undang nomor 18 tahun 1997 tentang pajak dan retribusi daerah, bandung: cv. laksana mandiri. suprihanto, john, 1997, pengukuran tingkat kepuasan pelayanan, jakarta: rineka cipta. susantun, indah, 2000, fungsi keuntungan cobb douglas dalam pendugaan efisiensi ekonomi relatif, jurnal ekonomi pembangunan, vol. 5, no. 2, edisi 2000. undang-undang no. 33 tahun 2004 tentang pemerintah daerah. undang-undang no. 34 tahun 2004 tentang perimbangan keuangan antara pemerintah pusat dan pemerintah daerah. usman, b. 1996, pajak-pajak indonesia, jakarta: majalah mingguan pajak. waluya, harry, 2001, analisis rasio pad/ apbd terhadap kebijakan kemandirian keuangan daerah otonom, jurnal ekonomi dan bisnis fe universitas katolik indonesia atmajaya, vol. 1, no. 2, edisi agustus 2001. wantara, agus, 1995, analisis pendapatan asli daerah istimewa yogyakarta tahun 19701980 (tesis yang tidak dipublikasikan), yogyakarta: ugm. microsoft word 05-aminul _130-141_.doc jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 8, nomor 2, oktober 2007: 130-141 non-bank financial intermediaries (nbfis) and economic growth in malaysia: an application of the ardl bounds testing approach to cointegration mohd. aminul islam 1 dato’ jamil bin hj. osman 1 1 international islamic university malaysia p.o. box 10, 50728 kuala lumpur tel: (+603) 6196 4000 fax: (+603) 6196 4053 e-mail: aminul_2@yahoo.com, drj@iiu.edu.my abstract this paper empirically examines the impact of non-bank financial intermediaries (nbfis) on economic growth in malaysia using the time series data for the period 1976-2004. we employ a recently developed autoregressive distributed lag (ardl) bounds testing approach to cointegration suggested by pesaran et al (2001) which is more suitable for estimation in small sample size studies and also capable of testing the existence of long run relationship irrespective of whether the underlying variables are integrated of order i(0), i(1) or mutually integrated. we found evidence of a stable long run cointegrating relationship between per capita real gdp and economic growth in malaysia. the regression result suggests that the development of nbfis has positive and significant long run impact on per capita real gdp in malaysia. keywords: non-bank financial intermediaries; economic growth jel classification: c3, c22, c51, g2 introduction the importance of the development of financial system in economic growth, particularly the role of banks and stock market has long been discussed both in the theoretical and empirical studies (see for a detailed review of the literature, levine 1997 & 2003; blum et. al. 2002). these studies generally agree that a sound and well-developed financial system has a beneficial effect on a country’s economic growth1. 1 some of the mostly cited empirical works that established the evidence of finance-growth relationship are: king and levine (1993); al-yousif (2002); wachtel and rousseau (2000); neusser and kugler (1998); ansari (2002); beck et al (2000); beck and levine (2002, 2004), fase et al (2003); christopoulos et al (2004); arestis and demetriade (1997); luintel however, as compared to the banking sector and stock market development (which have been mostly used as a proxy for financial development), a very few2 studies are available addressing the role and functions of the nonbank financial intermediaries (henceforth nbfis) in the overall economic development. these studies are mostly conducted in the & khan (1999); gregorio and guidotti (1995); arestis et al (2001); levine and zervos (1998) etc. 2 in recent some studies are found trying to shed some light on the growing importance of nbfis in the development of financial intermediation and in the economic growth. however, they mostly focused only on the study of pension fund or the contractual savings in the context of developed countries. see for example, schmidt et al (1999); bossone (2001); santomero (2001); murphy et al (2004); vittas (1997); impavido et al (2000, 2003); davis (2004); harichandra et al (2004) etc. non-bank financial intermediaries (aminul islam dan dato’ jamil) 131 context of developed economies and concentrated disproportionately on the contractual savings (pension and insurance funds) or only on the pension funds. this is despite the fact that in many rapidly growing economies the nbfis in various forms have also increasingly become an important component of the financial sector. malaysia is one of the rapidly growing economies where the financial landscape has been observed reshaping faster in concomitant with economic progress over the past three decades. along with banking sector and stock market development, the nbfis as a group have also been gaining significant expansion over time. the nbfis have achieved a considerable level of development in the financial system and have rapidly expanded in relation to the size of the malaysian economy. the nbfis are playing important role as an alternative source of long term financing particularly through mobilizing the resources from the surplus units and channelling them to the productive investment activities in the economy. in short, the financial system3 of 3 structurally, the financial system of malaysia is comprised of two namely: financial institutions and financial markets. the financial institutions are further subdivided into two-banking institutions and non-banking financial institutions. financial markets on the other hand comprises of capital markets, bond malaysia today is relatively more matured, sophisticated, broader and better structured which is (on its all fronts) playing crucial role in accelerating the healthy growth of malaysian economy. table 1 provides some statistical data which will provide a quick overview of the financial system development in malaysia over the study period. data in table 1 shows that in 1976, the ratio of the financial sector’s total resources was 118.8 percent of gdp and by 2004 this ratio increased to 392.8 percent of gdp. within the financial sector, banking sectors’ resources accounted for 84.6 percent of gdp in 1976 which increased to 265.9 percent as at the end of 2004. the corresponding shares of the nbfis resources were 34.2 percent and 126.9 percent respectively. similarly, the capital markets4, which represented a relatively small sub-sector of the malaysian financial system particularly in the early stages of economic development in the early 1970s, also experienced significant expansion over time. in markets, money & foreign exchange markets, derivative markets and offshore markets. 4 capital markets comprise of equity market and bond market. the equity market provides the avenue for corporations to mobilize funds by issuing stocks and shares, while the bond market provides the avenue for the private and public sectors to raise funds by issuing private debt securities and government securities respectively. table 1. financial development and the gdp, 1976-2004 shares of financial resources to gdp (%) 1976 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2004 % change in ratio 1976/2004 fs: 118.8 136.6 214.9 275.7 335.7 362.2 392.8 230.6 bs 84.6 99.5 152.6 192.9 231.8 241.8 265.9 214.3 nbfis 34.2 37.1 62.3 82.8 103.9 120.4 126.9 271.1 mc 44.6 80.8 75.2 113.7 254.2 129.5 161.3 261.4 vt 3.6 10.5 8.0 25.5 80.4 71.1 48.2 1238.9 gdp in billions (rm) 28.1 53.3 77.5 115.8 222.5 343.2 447.5 1492.5 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 8, nomor 2, oktober 2007: 130 141 132 the capital market, however, the equity market is by far the more active component in malaysia. the malaysian stock market (now known as kuala lumpur stock exchange or klse) was established in 1973 with the aim of developing it into a well-structured and sophisticated financial system, and it indeed has undergone rapid development and transformation process over the years. since its inception the klse has experienced rapid expansion and today, it is the largest in the association of southeast asian nations (asean) region and the fifth largest in asia in terms of market size (bnm, 1994: 390). market capitalization5, which amounted to rm 12.54 billion or 44.6 percent of gdp at the end of 1976, expanded steadily to reach rm 722.04 billion or 161.3 percent of gdp at the end of 5 klse market capitalization data is available starting from 1976. data for 1976, investor digest, klse, 1976 and data for 2004, bnm-ar 2004, p. 204 2004. one important point to be noticed here is that although the ratio of nbfis resources as a percentage of gdp is relatively smaller than the banks and the market capitalization, in terms of percentage change in ratio, the nbfis record the highest change over the period 1976-2004 which is 271.1. this indicates that the nbfis as a group are growing faster than the bank and the stock market capitalization in relation to the size of the economy. in contrast with the increasing presence of nbfis in the financial sector development and its growing participation in the malaysian economy, to the best of our knowledge at this point no attention has been paid to its quantitative analysis especially with respect to its impact on economic growth in malaysia. even though, there are some empirical works available on finance-growth nexus in malaysia (e.g., ansari 2002; hassanuddin, 1999; luintel and khan, 1999; odedokun, 1996; rousseau and vuthipadadorn, 2005 etc.), the scope of these keys: fs=financial sector; bs= banking sector; nbfis =non-bank financial institutions; mc=market capitalization; vt = value of traded shares. sources: bank negara malaysia (bnm) annual reports, 1976 2004. data for mc, investors digest, klse, various issues and also bnm annual reports, 2000-2004 figure 1. share of financial sectors’ total assets, banking institutions assets and the nbfis assets as a percentage of gdp, 1976-2004. non-bank financial intermediaries (aminul islam dan dato’ jamil) 133 works are limited to the banks and stock market development. this study is thus a new to the dimension of finance-growth nexus aiming to integrate the nbfis into the mainstream finance-growth literature and examine their potential effect on economic growth. in addition, this study also will help to identify the relative importance of the financial sector development in affecting economic growth particularly in malaysia. research method model specification we specify the generic regression equation in the following form: yt = ƒ (pvct, fat, stockt,,m) …..(1) where yt equals real per capita gdp, fat refers to the measure of nbfis development indicator. pvc refers to the private credit extended to private sector by the banks. stockt,m (m = 1, 2) refers to the indicators (market capitalization, mc and value of traded shares, vt respectively) of the stock market development. the subscript t represents the time period. all the independent variables in eq.(1) are expressed as a ratio of gdp. expressing the relation in linear form using the variables in natural log, we arrive at the following estimating equation: +++= ttt lnfalnpvclny 210 ααα tmt ulnstock +,3α (2) where: ln indicates natural log, α’s are the parameters to be estimated and ut is an error term. lny = log [per capita real gdp] [adjusted by cpi, 2000=100 to obtain real values] lnfa = log [total assets of nbfis/gdp] lnpvc = log [private credit extended by banks /gdp] lnmc = log [market capitalization/gdp] lnvt = log [value of traded shares/gdp] we expect that the indicator of nbfis development has positive impact on per capita real gdp. we also expect stock market development variables to be positive. the sign of the private credit variable can be positive or negative. the time series data with annual observation cover the period 1976-2004. the data are obtained from the annual reports of the central bank of malaysia (bnm), published sources of the individual nbfis, international financial statistics (ifs) and investor digests, klse various issues. the variables are transformed into logarithmic form in order to minimize the scale effect. estimation techniques ardl model specification and bounds testing procedure there are several estimation techniques (e.g., engle-granger, 1987; johansen, 1988, 1991 and johansen-juselius, 1990) available for investigating the long run cointegrating relationship among time series variables. however, due to some statistical limitations with the other two conventional approaches including unsuitability in dealing with smaller sample size, we prefer to employ ardl bounds testing approach to cointegration developed by pesaran et al (2001). the major advantages of the ardl bounds testing approach are that it is suitable for small sample size and can be jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 8, nomor 2, oktober 2007: 130 141 134 applied irrespective of whether the underlying variables are purely i(0), i(1), or mutually integrated6. the bounds testing procedure is the ordinary least square (ols) based autoregressive distributed lag (ardl) approach to cointegration represented by the unrestricted error correction model (uecm). to begin with, we test for the null of no cointegration against the existence of a long run relationship. the error correction representation for equation (2) in the form of an unrestricted error correction model (uecm) is as follows: ∑ ∑ = = −− +δ+δ+=δ k i k i itiitit lnpvclnylny 1 0 210 ααα ∑ ∑ = = −− +δ+δ k i k i mitiiti lnstocklnfa 0 0 ,43 αα +++ −−− 171615 ttt lnfalnpvclny ααα tmtlnstock 1,18 εα +− …..(3) here δ indicates first difference operator; k is the lag length. 85 ....αα refers to long-run coefficients and 0α is the drift. other variables are defined as before. the first part of equations (3) with α1i….α4i represents the short run dynamics of the model, whereas the second part with αi (i=5….8) represents the long run relationship. the null hypothesis of no cointegration among the variables in equation (3) is (h0: α5 = α6 = α7 = α8 =0) against the alternative hypothesis (h1: α5 ≠ α6 ≠ α7 ≠ α8 ≠ 0). the hypotheses are tested based on the wald or fstatistic. the f-test used in this procedure has a 6 although ardl bounds testing approach does not require unit root test, still it is required in order to ensure that the variables are not integrated of order more than i(1) because the presence of i(2) variables invalidate the use of computed f-statistic as the bounds test is based on the assumption that the underlying variables must be either i(0) or i(1) or mutually integrated. we conducted the unit root tests and found that all the underlying variables are mix of i(1) and i(0). the results are not reported here in order to save space but are available from the author upon request. non-standard distribution. the calculated fstatistics are compared with two sets of critical values7: upper bound critical values and the lower bound critical values. accordingly, if the computed f-statistic falls below the lower bound critical value, the null hypothesis of ‘no cointegration’ can not be rejected but if the test statistic exceeds the upper bound critical value, the null hypothesis of ‘no cointegration’ is rejected implying that the underlying variables are cointegrated. in other word, there exists long run equilibrium relationship. however, if the computed fstatistic falls between these two value bounds the decision is inconclusive and thus to make any conclusive inference knowledge of the order of the integration of the underlying variables is required (pesaran et al. 2001: 290). akaike information criterion (aic) is used to select the optimal lag length (k). once the test confirms the existence of cointegration, we can move to the second stage to obtain the long run and the short run dynamics of the error correction estimates for the selected ardl models. in the presence of long run relationship the associated ardl error correction model of eq.(3) can be constructed as follows: ∑ ∑ = = −− +δ+δ+=δ k i k i ititt lnpvclnylny 1 0 210 ααα ∑∑ = − = − +δ+δ k i mit k i it lnstocklnfa 0 ,4 0 3 αα ttect νψ +−1 …..(4) where δ is the first difference operator, si 'α are the short-run dynamic coefficients of the 7 critical values differ based on sample size. in the original bounds testing procedure, pesaran and pesaran (1997) and pesaran et al (2001) generated critical values based on 500 and 1000 sample observations respectively. since our sample size is relatively small with only 29 annual observations, we employ critical values tabulated by narayan (2005) are based on sample size of 30. non-bank financial intermediaries (aminul islam dan dato’ jamil) 135 model and ψ is the coefficient of the error correction term8 that measures the speed of adjustment. findings and discussion the cointegration results based on aic lag selection criterion are presented in table 2. we have set the maximum lag length to 2 and chosen the optimal lag as selected by the aic. according to the computed f-statistics, for the first case (when mc is used as a stock market indicator) at a lag order of 1 and for the second case (when vt is used as a stock market indicator) at a lag order of 2 we reject the null hypothesis of ‘no cointegration’. in other words, we find evidence of long run cointegrations in both cases at a lag order of 1 and 2 respectively. the long run and short run coefficient estimates for the selected ardl models along with ects are reported in table 3. first we look at the results in the column of panel a. the long run coefficient estimates are all statistically significant. more importantly as expected, the long run coefficient of nbfis denoted as fa is positive and 8 ect is derived from the long run cointegrating relationship statistically significant at 10 percent level implying that a 1 percent increase in the ratio of fa to gdp leads to over 1.3 percent increase in per capita real gdp. the long run coefficient of mc is also positive and statistically significant at 5 percent level as expected. the long run results thus imply that both nbfis and the stock market development (in the form of mc) have beneficial impact on long run per capita real gdp in malaysia. however, the coefficient of pvc variable appears to be significantly negative which may indicate the inefficiency of investment. this is in line with previous studies (e.g., gregorio & guidotti, 1995: 443). the results of the short run dynamic coefficients are also consistent with the long run coefficient estimates except the sign of fa which is negative in this case. the coefficient of the error correction term (ectt-1) is -0.0856 and it is statistically significant at 5 percent level. importantly, the ect carries the expected negative sign. the speed of adjustment to the long run equilibrium after a shock is relatively slow. in other words, approximately 10 percent of the disequilibria are corrected in the current year. over all, the regression results suggest that the underlying ardl model fits the data reasonably well as the adjusted r-squared appears considerably table 2. f-statistics for testing the existence of long run cointegrating relationships based on equation (3) dependent variable order of lag (aic) f-statistics lower bound value, i(0) upper bound value, i(1) critical value bounds fy (y/pvc, fa, mc) 1 7.4905* 5.333 7.063 1% fy (y/pvc, fa, vt) 2 4.3032*** 3.710 5.018 5% 3.008 4.150 10% notes: the critical value bounds are based on the number of regressors = 3 and n = 30. critical values are cited from p.k. narayan (2005) which is close to the sample size of 29 used in this study (case iii: unrestricted intercept and no trend). in this regard, it is to be noted here that the original bounds f-statistic critical values reported in pesaran et al (1997 & 2001) are based on 500 and 1000 observations respectively. * and *** refer to significance at 1 percent and 10 percent levels respectively. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 8, nomor 2, oktober 2007: 130 141 136 high (0.79), the f-statistic which measures the joint significance of all the regressors in the model is highly significant and the model also passes through a battery of diagnostic tests such as serial correlation, functional form, normality and heteroscedasticity. now looking at the results in the column of panel b where we used value of traded shares (vt) as an alternative indicator of stock market development instead of mc, we observe that the results are more or less consistent with the results presented in the column of panel a. in particular, here the coefficients of nbfis and the stock market development indicator (vt) are also positive and statistically significant at 10 percent and 5 percent levels respectively. the coefficient of the error correction term has the correct negative sign and is significant at 5 percent level confirming the existence of a stable long run cointegrating relationship between variables. the results thus reinforce the findings of panel a that both nbfis and the stock market development (mc or vt) are important factors in enhancing per capita real gdp in the long run in malaysia. the relatively high value of adjusted r-squared, the highly significant f-statistic and the diagnostic tests all table 3. long run and short run coefficient estimates for the selected ardl models based on aic panel a estimated coefficients using the ardl (1,0,1,1) selected based on aic panel b estimated coefficients using the ardl (1,0,1,0) selected based on aic long run coefficients dependent variable: lnyt long run coefficients dependent variable: lnyt regressors coefficients t-ratio regressors coefficients t-ratio lnpvct -2.1816 1.721*** lnpvct -1.3002 1.6936^ lnfat 1.3141 1.752*** lnfat 1.0400 1.8827*** lnmct 1.0313 2.079** lnvtt 0.2487 2.5630** constant 10.068 25.846* constant 10.3301 25.9216* short run coefficients with ect dependent variable: δlnyt short run coefficients with ect dependent variable: δlnyt regressors coefficients t-ratio regressors coefficients t-ratio δlnpvct -0.5929 2.8198* δlnpvct -0.1541 2.3043** δlnfat -0.1868 4.4097* δlnfat -0.5153 3.6934* δlnmct 0.0459 2.1928** δlnvtt 0.0294 3.6459* constant 0.8621 2.2720** constant 1.2243 2.7128** ect(t-1) -0.0856 2.1031** ect(t-1) -0.1185 2.4696** r-squared 0.83664 r-squared 0.7873 r-squared adjusted 0.78763 r-squared adjusted 0.7367 f-statistic 25.6063 [0.000] f-statistic 19.4374 [0.000] dw-statistic 2.3891 dw-statistic 2.1217 diagnostic test statistics: diagnostic test statistics: serial correlation chsq (1) = 1.0165 [0.313] serial correlation chsq (1) = 0.2750 [0.600] functional form chsq (1) = 0.6887 [0.407] functional form chsq (1) = 1.1203 [0.290] normality chsq (2) = 1.2424 [0.537] normality chsq (2) = 0.0909 [0.956] heteroscedasticity chsq (1) = 1.0838 [0.298] heteroscedasticity chsq (1) = 4.2334 [0.040] notes: *, ** and *** denote significance level at 1 percent, 5 percent and 10 percent levels respectively. ^refers to significance level at 10.3 percent. non-bank financial intermediaries (aminul islam dan dato’ jamil) 137 suggests that overall the goodness of fit of the model is satisfactory. overall, from the estimation results we arrive at the key conclusions that 1. the per capita real gdp in malaysia is cointegrated with all the selected financial variables. 2. both nbfis and the stock market development indicators are positive and significant indicating that they act as driving forces behind per capita real gdp in malaysia in the long run. however, private credit variable (pvc) seems to be statistically significant at 10 percent and 10.3 percent levels respectively but with negative sign suggesting that the role of pvc as a financial factor in influencing long run output is weak when entered with other financial factors (nbfis and stock). parameter stability tests we examine the stability of the long run coefficients together with the short run dynamics for the aic based error correction models by applying the cusum and cusumsq stability tests as suggested by pesaran and pesaran (1997). the tests are presented by means of graphs as shown in figure 2 and figure 3. it can be seen from figure 2 and figure 3 that the plots of cusum and cusumsq statistics stay well within the critical bounds of 5 percent significance level implying the absence of any significant structural instability in the parameters for both models. figure 2. cusum & cusumsq plots for stability tests (for model with mc) figure 3. cusum & cusumsq plots for stability tests (for model with vt) jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 8, nomor 2, oktober 2007: 130 141 138 conclusion in this paper, we examined the long-run relationship between per capita real gdp and the financial development (comprises of nbfis, banks and stock market development) in malaysia using the ardl bounds testing approach to cointegration over the period 19762004. the test revealed that there is a stable long run relationship between per capita real gdp and its regressors (nbfis, banks and stock market development indicators). the existence of a stable long run relationship is further confirmed by the negative and significant coefficients of the error correction terms (ect). we also utilized the cusum and cusum of squares stability test. the test confirms no evidence of any significant structural instability of the long run coefficients of the output function. the estimation results suggest that both nbfis and the stock market development indicators are the significant financial factors that do matter for explaining the variations in the long run per capita real gdp in malaysia. the most striking finding is that the nbfis have a positive and significant impact on long run per capita real gdp in malaysia. the empirical evidence suggests that the financial development indicators particularly the nbfis and the stock market are in part responsible for future change in the per capita real gdp in malaysia in which the stock market is viewed as a leading sector followed by the nbfis. in other words, the results indicate that both the nbfis and the stock market are the important financial sectors through which the financial resources are effectively channelled from savers to the users in the economy. as such it is important that besides taking steps to develop a vibrant stock market (such as through the liberalized investment and openness policies), the authorities also should thoroughly examine the mechanisms through which the nbfis most effectively deliver financial services to promote long run economic growth. this can help the concerned authorities to formulate prudent policies for its further development and hence achieving a long run sustainable economic growth in malaysia. the development of nbfis can be an important locomotive for promoting economic growth particularly through providing long term financing to the productive investment activities where the financing activities of the conventional banking system are mostly limited. furthermore, the development of nbfis can also promote the development of small and medium-sized industries which have limited opportunities to meet their financial needs from entering the stock market and also from the commercial banking system. by doing so, the nbfis can create employment opportunities and hence can play important role in alleviating poverty through raising income of the people. in fact, the nbfis as a group in malaysia is relatively well-developed and they are playing growing role in the malaysian economy which is obvious from the size of their total resources as a percentage of gdp (table 1) and perhaps their potential role in influencing economic performance is substantiated by the findings of this empirical work (table 3). the empirical findings with respect to malaysian case can also be applicable for other countries of similar interest. as such while considering the financial development (particularly banks and stock market) as an important vehicle for fostering economic growth, the policymakers can also promote the nbfis as an integrated part of the overall financial system. together they can exert a greater long run and sustainable impact on the economic performance of the country. non-bank financial intermediaries (aminul islam dan dato’ jamil) 139 references abma, r.c.n., and fase, m.m.g. 2003. financial environment and economic growth in selected asian countries. journal of asian economics 14. 11-21. allen, franklin., and santomero, anthony m. 2001. what do financial intermediaries do? journal of banking & finance 25. 271-294. al-yousif, yousif k., 2002. financial development and economic growth: another look at the evidence from developing countries. review of financial economics 11. 131-150. ansari, m.i. 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(3). 289-326. non-bank financial intermediaries (aminul islam dan dato’ jamil) 141 rousseau, p. l., and vuthipadadorn, d. 2005. finance, investment and growth: the time series evidence from 10 asian economies. journal of macroeconomics 27. 87-106. schmidt, r. h., hackethal, a., and tyrel, m. 1999. disintermediation and the role of banks in europe: an international comparison. journal of financial intermediation 8. 36-67. vittas, dimitri. 1997. the role of non-bank financial intermediaries in egypt and other mena countries. development research group. world bank. convert jpg to pdf online convert-jpg-to-pdf.net image (127).jpg image (132).jpg image (133).jpg image (134).jpg image (135).jpg image (136).jpg image (137).jpg image (138).jpg image (139).jpg image (140).jpg image (141).jpg image (142).jpg image (143).jpg image (144).jpg image (2).jpg image (3).jpg image (4).jpg image (5).jpg image (6).jpg image (7).jpg image (8).jpg image (9).jpg image (10).jpg image (11).jpg image (12).jpg image (13).jpg image (14).jpg image (15).jpg image (16).jpg image (17).jpg image (18).jpg image (19).jpg image (20).jpg jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 23 no 1, april 2022 article type: research paper children’s dental caries prevention program: do parents willing to pay? endah saptutyningsih* and hafsah fajar jati abstract: this study aims to determine parents’ willingness to pay (wtp) for their children’s dental caries prevention program at elementary school using a direct survey—the contingent valuation method. this study collected data from 264 parents of students aged 6-12 years old (the 1st to the 6th grade). children at this age are at risk of dental caries because they consume more sweets, chocolate, and other sugary products. the survey results showed that the average wtp value for caries prevention was idr 103,371. income, education, and selfperceived needs for treatments were variables that positively and significantly affected wtp. other variables such as parents’ age and frequency of visiting a dental healthcare facility were insignificant. oral and dental health treatments can impact not only health during childhood but also in adulthood. the findings can inform health departments in improving dental health services. research on preventing oral and dental diseases, especially caries, is still limited in indonesia. most studies involve adult respondents, whereas this study involves primary school students. keywords: willingness to pay; contingent valuation method; caries prevention; dental health jel classification: i13 introduction health is not only an important indicator of personal wellbeing but also a country’s development and environmental change, so it must be improved continuously (who, 1948). ‘health for all’ assurance is stated in sustainable development goals (sdgs) number three about good health and wellbeing. oral and dental (orodental) health is an essential indicator of overall physical and psychological health. its conditions can affect people’s performance at school or work. some issues affecting the conditions include dental and periodontal diseases, oral cancer, hiv infection, and trauma. who recorded that dental problems are the world’s most prevalent chronic diseases over the past decade (who, 2018). vos et al. (2017) estimated that oral diseases affect 3.58 billion people or about half of the world’s population, with dental caries in permanent teeth becoming the most prevalent problem. therefore, orodental healthcare ranked the fourth most expensive to treat, higher than the investment for cancer or respiratory diseases (petersen, bourgeois, bratthall, & ogawa, 2005). in most high-income countries, orodental treatment is costly, with about 5% affiliation: department of economics, faculty of economics and business, universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta, special region of yogyakarta, indonesia *correspondence: endahsaptuty@umy.ac.id this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v23i1.14041 citation: saptutyningsih, e., & jati, h. f. (2022). children’s dental caries prevention program: do parents willing to pay? jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 23(1), 93-109. article history received: 21 feb 2022 revised: 31 mar 2022 accepted: 06 apr 2022 https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorid=57214445720 https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=o7x68_saaaaj&hl=en https://economics-feb.umy.ac.id/ https://economics-feb.umy.ac.id/ https://economics-feb.umy.ac.id/ https://economics-feb.umy.ac.id/ https://economics-feb.umy.ac.id/ mailto:endahsaptuty@umy.ac.id http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/14041 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v23i1.14041&domain=pdf saptutyningsih & jati children’s dental caries prevention program: do parents willing to pay? jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 94 of total health expenditure and 20% of out-of-pocket health expenditure. meanwhile, in low-and middle-income countries (lmics), orodental healthcare demand is often higher than the capacities of the healthcare systems. since access to orodental health remains limited, problems are often left untreated. teeth are often extracted to remove pain or discomfort (who, 2018). in indonesia, the health concern is regulated in constitution number 36 of 2009. article 93, paragraph one, states that government, regional governments, and/or the community should maintain and improve public health—by improving treatments, preventing diseases, and restoring orodental health—in a united, integrated, and sustainable manner. however, most people’s awareness is low, so they do not prioritize orodental health. this is reflected in the high prevalence of orodental problems in indonesia. table 1 prevalence of orodental problems compared to other diseases in indonesia diseases proportion (%) 2007 2013 2018 orodental diseases 23.4 25.9 57.6 communicable diseases ari (acute respiratory infections) 25.5 25 9.3 pneumonia 2.13 1.8 4.0 tuberculosis 0.99 0.4 0.42 non-communicable diseases asthma 3.5 4.5 2.4 cancer 4.3 1.4 1.79 diabetes mellitus 1.1 2.1 1.5 mental disorder (psychosis/schizophrenia) 4.6 1.7 6.7 nutritional deficiencies 18.4 19.6 17.7 source: national institute of health research and development (nihrd), ministry of health indonesia the research reported that orodental diseases rank first as the most prevalent disease affecting people in indonesia. more than half of the population in indonesia have had orodental problem(s). this proportion exceeds the other health issues assessed in the basic health research (riskesdas), such as communicable diseases (ari, pneumonia, tb, etc.), non-communicable diseases (asthma, cancer, diabetes, etc.), mental health, congenital disabilities, and nutritional status (table 1). the proportion of orodental prevalence in 2018 was 57.6%, doubled from the problems in 2007 and 2013 (23.2% and 25.9%, respectively). out of the total population with dental diseases in 2018, only 10.2% received treatments from medical personnel. this percentage decreased from 29.7% in 2007 and 31.1% in 2013, as shown in table 1. it could be inferred that orodental diseases are not considered acute and that orodental care is not prioritized. in terms of age, there were 93% of children with a dental problem in 2018. caries or tooth decay was the most prevalent problem. according to oral health atlas 2015, in 19942014, indonesia had the highest dmf-t (caries index) among southeast asian nations, which also means one of the highest globally. seventy-six percent was due to dental caries with the level of dmf-t of 4.5 (classified as high). the poor in orodental health was due saptutyningsih & jati children’s dental caries prevention program: do parents willing to pay? jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 95 to low capacity of healthcare resources, poor monitoring and evaluation, inadequate information system, and poor track record and reporting at the regional or national level. special region of yogyakarta (diy henceforth) was ranked fourth in the number of orodental cases nationally. the diseases reached 65.6%, above the national average and increasing from year to year. at the same time, the proportion of medical interventions kept decreasing, as shown in figure 1. this poor status was surprising because only 6% of people in diy brush their teeth properly (ministry of health of the republic of indonesia, 2018). figure 1 the proportion of orodental problems and medical interventions in indonesia and diy source: national institute of health research and development (nihrd), ministry of health indonesia almost half of the orodental problems were dental caries and toothache. dental caries is indeed the most prevalent chronic dental disease affecting children (dawkins et al., 2013). in yogyakarta special region, the dental caries index reached 6.53 (classified as very high), much higher than indonesia’s dmf-t score, which was 4.5. taking medicines was the most common action to treat the illness, followed by tooth filling and tooth extraction (ministry of health of the republic of indonesia, 2018). restorative treatment, i.e., medication when the problem has become serious, was more common than promotive and preventive treatments. it shows that the awareness about the importance of orodental health, especially to prevent dental caries among children, was low. an unhealthy modern diet could also be a factor. according to fdi world dental federation (2017), the worldwide consumption of sugar has increased about triple over the last 50 years, especially in emerging countries. sugar, acid, and caffeine in food and beverage products can weaken tooth enamel and cause dental caries. this is a major global public health problem affecting individuals, health systems, and economies. in yogyakarta special region, 41% and 71% of the population consume high-sugar foods and beverages at least one serving a day. smoking, alcohol, and poor oral hygiene are also the factors causing dental problems. the number of smokers in indonesia remains high, saptutyningsih & jati children’s dental caries prevention program: do parents willing to pay? jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 96 especially in yogyakarta, where 5.4% of smokers started smoking when they were five to nine years old. the number of young smokers was the highest in yogyakarta than in other provinces in indonesia. it was even above indonesia’s average rate, which was 2.5% (ministry of health of the republic of indonesia, 2018). nevertheless, medical intervention, parents’ awareness, and prioritizing in the policymaking still need some improvement. the government does not prioritize dental health because dental caries is not considered immediately life-threatening (oscarson, 2006; peres et al., 2019; watt et al., 2019). meanwhile, on an individual level, socio-economic status also impacts dental health (celeste & fritzell, 2018; costa et al., 2018; matsuyama et al., 2017; schwendicke et al., 2014). birch and listl (2015) stated that the demand for healthcare, including orodental, comes from the consumer’s expected health gain and is encouraged by advice and direction from the healthcare providers. lastly, the common preconception about visiting a dentist also makes people avoid seeking help and leave their teeth untreated. health as an outcome is classified into non-market goods. klose (1999) measured healthcare products in terms of monetary value and postulated that they could be established by using the contingent valuation method (cvm) within the cost-benefit analysis and represented by the value of willingness to pay (wtp). walraven (1996) defined wtp as the maximum amount of money individuals are willing to pay for the proposed services or goods. wtp provides a realistic price level determined by consumer values and perceptions. in the health services industry, cvm studies are growing rapidly. this method is considered the most suitable approach for health-related economic valuation (vo, tran, & vo, 2018). a critical review by tan, vernazza, and nair (2017) on wtp for dental treatments found that cvm was used in most publications in pubmed and web of science databases. thus far, none of the studies mentioned above assess wtp for dental care in indonesia. to the best of our knowledge, only karyadi (2011) conducted research in surakarta, indonesia, but it was not designed based on cvm. on health risk mitigation, saptutyningsih and sujud (2020) assessed tobacco farmers’ wtp to obtain health insurance for green tobacco sickness (gts) and analyzed its relationship with the socioeconomic and demographic factors. socioeconomic characteristic is a major factor associated with wtp and health product preference (jennifer & saptutyningsih, 2015; birhane et al., 2016; sever, verbič, & sever, 2017; nyamuryekung'e, lahti, & tuominen, 2018; harapan et al., 2019). tan et al. (2017) extracted relevant publications and found that income, education, and age influence wtp for clinical orodental interventions. these variables are the socioeconomic factors that have thus been used in most economic valuation studies in the health sector. vernazza et al. (2015) found a large and unpredictable variance in caries prevention values, but neither socioeconomic nor dental history factors became a significant wtp predictor. unlike these findings, walshaw et al. (2019) found that wtp for caries prevention could be associated with parents’ income and children’s dental history. saptutyningsih & jati children’s dental caries prevention program: do parents willing to pay? jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 97 according to mubaraki et al. (2017), parents with higher education and higher income showed higher wtp for their children’s interceptive dental health. these findings align with berendsen et al. (2018), which analyzed parents’ willingness to invest financially (wtp), make a dentist appointment, and commit to toothbrushing minutes. meanwhile, a study by walshaw et al. (2019) aims to elicit wtp for caries prevention in the uk and brazil. they recruited 200 participants from public dental care facilities. the wtp data were analyzed using linear regression modeling and tobit regression for accounting for the data left censoring where appropriate. the findings indicated that in brazil, there was a positive and significant correlation between a higher wtp, infrequent attendance and a moderate income. in the uk, the higher wtp was correlated with frequent visits, a higher perceived need for treatment, a recent history of oral diseases, having a child with recent dental restorations, being female, and a higher income. several past studies have found that attention to children's dental health is still low, while other past studies have examined the role of pediatric anesthesia parent satisfaction (paps) in mitigating health risks. in indonesia, some elementary schools have dental care programs. however, dental caries remains prevalent, and there has not been a structured intervention or a program that aims to prevent dental caries. empirical findings on parents’ wtp for their children’s caries prevention could be a point of reference for policymakers. therefore, the current study aims to determine the wtp using the contingent valuation method (cvm). we chose yogyakarta city as the setting of this study, with three elementary schools (sd) as case studies—sd muhammadiyah suronatan, sd muhammadiyah wirobrajan 3, and sd muhammadiyah notoprajan. we selected these schools due to the high prevalence of dental caries—more than half of the students, according to the public health center’s examination in 2019. the sample population was the students’ parents. table 2 the relation between the dependent and independent variables dependent variable independent variables relation references wtp for caries prevention income + mckenna et al. (2016); mubaraki et al. (2017), tan et al. (2017), berendsen et al. (2018), nyamuryekung'e et al. (2018), srivastava et al. (2019), walshaw et al. (2019) education level + vermaire, van exel, van loveren, & brouwer (2012), mubaraki et al. (2017), tan et al. (2017), berendsen et al. (2018), sever et al. (2017), nyamuryekung'e et al. (2018) age augusti, augusti and re (2014), tan et al. (2017), nyamuryekung'e et al. (2018), sever et al. (2017) frequency of visits to dental health facilities + vernazza et al. (2015), walshaw et al. (2019) perceived need for treatment + vernazza et al. (2015), nyamuryekung'e et al. (2018) saptutyningsih & jati children’s dental caries prevention program: do parents willing to pay? jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 98 in collaboration with school staff and parents, medical interventions could be encouraged based on the estimation of parents’ wtp for their children to prevent dental caries. on a more theoretical side, the current study's finding is important for evaluating the factors associated with the value of parents’ willingness to pay. the relation between the dependent and independent variables is shown in table 2. research method data this study uses survey results as primary data. the respondents were parents whose children attended one of the selected elementary schools in yogyakarta city, namely sd muhammadiyah suronatan, sd muhammadiyah wirobrajan 3, and sd muhammadiyah notoprajan. the parents were selected from the 1st to the 6th grade (whose children were between 6-12 years old). children in this age range are at risk of dental caries as they eat more sweets, chocolate, or other sugary products (andini, indriati, & sabrian, 2018). the survey period of this study was in january-march 2020. sampling technique the sampling technique used in this study was cluster random sampling. the sample was divided into groups or clusters based on the schools. then, the same number of participants were chosen randomly from each cluster, determined with a percentage error of 10%. the population in this study was based on the number of students at the muhammadiyah elementary schools in yogyakarta city, calculated based on the isaac and michael formula in wilmoth (1982): 𝑠 = 𝜆2𝑁𝑃𝑄 𝑑2(𝑁−1)+𝜆2𝑃𝑄 (1) where s = number of samples; λ2 = chi square with the value based on the degree of freedom (df) and the probability of exceeding the critical value (α). for df=1 and α=0.1, chi-square = 2.706; n = number of populations; p = probability of correct (0.5); q = probability of incorrect (1-p=0.5); d = difference between mean sample and mean population (different biases 0.01; 0.05; and 0.1). in this study, the total population was 10.323 persons with the 10% statistical tolerance limit, and the value d was set to 0,05. therefore, the sample size recruited was: 𝑠 = (2.706)(10,323)(0.5)(0.5) 0.052(10,323 − 1) + (2.706)(0.5)(0.5) 𝑠 = 6,983.5095 26.4815 𝑠 = 263.7 ≈ 264 saptutyningsih & jati children’s dental caries prevention program: do parents willing to pay? jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 99 based on the calculation, the respondents recruited for this research were 264. each school contributed one-third of the total sample or 88 parents. data collection technique the data were obtained primarily using a written questionnaire sent directly to the respondents to be answered. this questionnaire consists of questions and written statements related to information needed for the research. data analysis this study used the contingent valuation method (cvm) as a direct survey-based method to ask parents about their wtp for caries prevention. cvm can determine the maximum wtp and its relevant information. according to fauzi (2004), there are five stages to elicit the value of wtp using cvm: establishing a market hypothesis in the first stage, the questionnaire for wtp elicitation introduced a hypothetical scenario to the respondents: “orodental health problems affect more than half of the world's population. about 93% of children in indonesia experience dental caries that can affect their performance at school. to overcome this, the school plans to conduct routine dental care every semester for students to prevent caries. the program consists of 1) mouth, teeth, gums, and other supporting tissues check-ups; 2) food and lifestyle consultations that affect children's orodental health; 3) fluoride varnish treatment.” the scenario aims to provide an overview of the importance of orodental health maintenance to prevent caries. the wtp values were subsequently elicited through questions given to the respondents. obtaining the bidding value of wtp the initial bid price was based on the market price of dental treatment for caries prevention, namely a fluoride varnish application from public health facilities (idr 30.000). the initial bid price was offered to the respondents. using a bidding game, the amount would be increased if the respondents agreed to pay the offered price until the maximum amount they were willing to pay for caries prevention. estimating the mean of wtp to calculate the mean value of the bidding value obtained, willingness to pay can be estimated by dividing the sum of the overall value of wtp by the number of respondents. the formula used to calculate the mean value is as follows: 𝐸𝑊𝑇𝑃 = ∑ 𝑊𝑖𝑃𝑓𝑖𝑛𝑖=1 (2) saptutyningsih & jati children’s dental caries prevention program: do parents willing to pay? jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 100 where ewtp = estimated mean of wtp; wi= the value of wtp to-i; n = total respondent; i = respondent to-i that willing to pay (= 1,2,….n) estimating the bid curve the estimated supply curve of the wtp was obtained by regressing the value of wtp as the dependent variable with the independent variables, which include parents’ income, education, age, frequency of visits to dental health facilities, and the perceived need for treatment. aggregating data (total wtp) the last step was to sum the average value of the bid obtained. the conversion of the average sample data to the overall population’s mean resulted in switching the sample’s mean with the total population’s mean. the formula is: 𝑇𝑊𝑇𝑃 = ∑ 𝑊𝑇𝑃𝑖 𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑖=1 (3) where twtp= total wtp; ∑wtpi = wtp individual sample to-i; ni = total sample to-i; i = respondent to-i who is willing to pay (= 1,2,….n) the primary data in this study were processed using spss version 16. the associations of wtp as a dependent variable with its independent variables were analyzed using a multiple linear regression model analysis. in this study, the wtp for maintaining dental health was assessed by the parents with the function: wtp = f(inc, edu, age, freq, need) (4) meanwhile, the function expressed in the form of the wtp relationship with independent variables is: wtp = β0 + β1 inc + β2 edu + β3 age + β4 freq + β5 need + e (5) where wtp = willingness to pay for caries prevention in children; inc= parents’ income; edu = parents’ education level; age = parents’ age; freq = frequency of visits to dental health facilities; need = perceived need for treatment; e= error term. the model in this study used standardized regression coefficients or beta weights (β) because the variables are primary data measured in different units (menard, 2011). interpreting standardized coefficients for a causal relationship between independent and dependent variables needs the standard deviation information. a standard deviation increases the value of the independent variable. it is associated with a beta coefficient of standard deviation change in the value of the dependent variable (freedman, 2009; gignac, 2019). therefore, to calculate the change in wtp because of a standard deviation saptutyningsih & jati children’s dental caries prevention program: do parents willing to pay? jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 101 change in the independent variable, the standardized coefficient of the independent variable should be multiplied by the wtp’s standard deviation. result and discussion there were 264 respondents participating in the valuation of caries prevention. in this study, the wtp value from each respondent was obtained by cvm conducted in the following five stages. establishing a market hypothesis in the first stage, the questionnaire for wtp elicitation introduced a hypothetical scenario to the respondents: “orodental health problems affect more than half of the world's population. about 93% of children in indonesia experience dental caries that can affect their performance at school. to overcome this, the school plans to conduct routine dental care every semester for students to prevent caries. the program consists of 1) mouth, teeth, gums, and other supporting tissues check-ups; 2) food and lifestyle consultations that affect children's orodental health; 3) fluoride varnish treatment.” the scenario aims to provide an overview of the importance of orodental health maintenance to prevent caries. the wtp values were subsequently elicited through questions given to the respondents. obtaining the bidding value of wtp the initial bid price was based on the market price of dental treatment for caries prevention, namely a fluoride varnish application from public health facilities (idr 30.000). the initial bid price was offered to the respondents. using a bidding game, the amount would be increased if the respondents agreed to pay the offered price until the maximum amount they were willing to pay for caries prevention. estimating the mean of wtp (ewtp) the wtp can be estimated by summing up the overall value of wtp, divided by the number of respondents. the total sample was 264 persons, and the wtp from each respondent is provided in the appendix. based on the calculation, the estimated mean of wtp for caries prevention obtained using the bidding game technique was idr 103,371. estimating the bid curve the respondents’ wtp curve was calculated based on the wtp value and the number of respondents who chose the wtp value. figure 2 describes the distribution of wtp for caries prevention. the lowest value was idr 30,000, and the highest value was idr 500,000 from 264 respondents. saptutyningsih & jati children’s dental caries prevention program: do parents willing to pay? jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 102 aggregating data or the value of total wtp (twtp) the total wtp (twtp) value was calculated based on the wtp data distribution using the twtp formula. based on the calculation, the total wtp for caries prevention was idr 27,290,000. figure 2 willingness to pay for caries prevention the descriptive statistics are presented in table 3, providing information about the mean, minimum, maximum, and standard deviation values for each variable from 264 samples. table 3 descriptive statistics variable n mean min. max. std. deviation wtp 264 103,371 30,000 500,000 66,133 inc 264 4,234,090 200,000 85,000,000 5,752,536 edu 264 14 6 18 2.2 age 264 40 26 63 6 freq 264 2 0 48 4 need 264 2 1 4 0.9 the wtp from 264 respondents was, on average, idr 103,371. the lowest value that the respondents were willing to pay was idr 30,000, and the highest was idr 500,000. the standard deviation was idr 66,133 or lower than the average value; therefore, the distribution of respondents' answers to the wtp was good. of the 264 respondents who worked as an entrepreneur and an employee, the average income level was idr 4,234,090. the lowest income was idr 200,000, and the highest income was idr 85,000,000. the standard deviation was idr 5,752,536, exceeding the average income value and showing that the distribution of respondents' income was not good. the highest education attained by the respondents was a master's degree with a study duration of 18 years, while the lowest education was a primary school with a duration of 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 5 4 6 1 6 6 6 9 9 2 9 4 9 5 9 6 1 7 5 1 7 6 1 7 7 2 3 2 2 5 6 2 5 9 2 6 3 2 6 4 w t p ( id r ) cumulative frequency wtp for caries prevention 30000 50000 0 saptutyningsih & jati children’s dental caries prevention program: do parents willing to pay? jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 103 6 years. of 100 respondents, the average education level was 14, equivalent to the undergraduate level. the standard deviation value of the education variable was 2.2, so the average value of the education was higher than the standard deviation. it could be concluded that the data distribution of respondents' answers about education was good. the oldest respondent was 63 years old, and the youngest age was 26 years old at the time of the study. the average age was 40 years old, with a standard deviation of 6. since the standard deviation was lower than the average age, the age data distribution was good. the findings found that, on average, the respondents took their children to visit a dental health facility twice a year. the least frequency of visits was 0, or the respondents never visited a dental health facility with their children. the highest frequency of visits was 48 times a year, which was claimed by the respondents who visited a dental health facility about once a week. the high frequency of visits could be for routine dental treatments. the data distribution of the visit frequency was not good because the standard deviation showed a value of 4, which is higher than the mean value. the perceived need for treatment showed a mean value of 2. this means the average selfperceived need for treatment from 264 respondents is less than 50%. the minimum value was 1, representing zero perceived need for treatments or very low. the maximum value was 4, representing a perceived need for treatments higher than 50%. the standard deviation was 0.9 or less than the average, so the data distribution about the perceived need for treatment was good. from the normality test based on kolmogorov-smirnov, the data passed the normality test. the vif value for each independent variable showed no multicollinearity problems in this model. therefore, the independent variables in this study passed the multicollinearity test. using the glejser test, no heteroscedasticity problem was found in this model. in other words, this model passed all classical assumption tests and could fit the subsequent analysis for the regression model. table 4 regression model variable coefficients inc 0.364*** (34037.553) edu 0.176*** (1698.825) age 0.014 (570.499) freq 0.013 (804.513) need 0.182*** (4031.008) adj. r-square 0.238 prob. f-stat 0.000 dependent variable: wtp for caries prevention; ( ) is standard error; *significance at level 10%; **significance at level 5%; ***significance at level 1% saptutyningsih & jati children’s dental caries prevention program: do parents willing to pay? jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 104 this study was analyzed using multiple linear regression to discover the associated factors and the model of parents’ wtp to prevent caries among their children. the model observed the respondents’ demographics, socio-economic characteristics, and the children's dental healthcare to evaluate how much the influence of each variable on the value of wtp. this study shows that income has a significant and positive influence on wtp at a 1% level. therefore, when the income increases by idr 5,752,536 and the other factors are held constant, the wtp for caries prevention will increase by idr 24,072. education is significant at a 1% level, so the h0 was rejected, and ha was accepted. the standardized coefficient for the education variable was 0.176, hence education had a positive influence on wtp. therefore, when a parent’s education level increases by 2.2 years and the other factors are held constant, the wtp will increase by idr 11,639. the age variable had a coefficient of 0.014, which gave a positive influence. however, the t-test result showed that age was insignificant at all levels, so h0 was accepted, and ha was rejected. therefore, a parent’s age did not significantly influence wtp. the dental visit frequency variable had a coefficient of 0.013, so it gave a positive influence. however, the t-test result shows that the frequency of visits to a dental health facility did not significantly impact wtp. finally, the perceived need for treatment had a positive impact on wtp. with a higher perceived need for treatment, wtp could rise by idr 12,036, given that the other factors are held constant. the regression results showed that the income variable significantly affects wtp positively. it means the value of wtp increases as the income level increases, and vice versa, which is reasonable because parents tend to consider their spending carefully, including maintaining children's dental health. it is also possible that the high-income receivers’ wtp is higher to get more benefits from goods or services. on the other hand, the low-income receivers may face budget constraints, so they spend less on certain needs, such as dental care. a previous study by naavaal and kelekar (2018) observed a link between socioeconomic status and students’ school hour loss due to emergency dental care. students with high-income parents were 31% less likely to lose school hours due to acute dental care than students with low-income parents. further, students from low-income families consider that the priority is to purchase food and clothing (banovcinova, mydlikova, & vodicková, 2018). the result from this study is in line with past studies analyzing economic valuation for dental health, stating that monthly income is a determining factor that influences wtp positively (mubaraki et al., 2017; srivastava et al., 2019; walshaw et al., 2019). parent's education level and wtp were found to have a positive correlation. parents with a higher education level stated a significantly higher wtp and vice versa. this aligns with a previous study by nyamuryekung'e et al. (2018) in tanzania, stating that outpatients’ wtp pay for both anterior and posterior teeth filling services would be higher when the outpatients’ education was higher (β=0.003; p<0.001). mubaraki et al. (2017) also found a positive relation between wtp and education, although the influence was insignificant (β=2.446; p=0.366). education level plays a vital role in increasing parents' understanding saptutyningsih & jati children’s dental caries prevention program: do parents willing to pay? jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 105 and awareness of maintaining their children's dental health. formal education contributes to parents' informed decision-making to fulfill the needs of the family members, including their children. kim, choi, kim, & pop-eleches (2018) argued that education improves individual economic decision-making and rationality. in this study, the age variable positively influences wtp (β=298.866) but is statistically insignificant (p=0.600), indicating that parents’ wtp for caries prevention was not affected by the parents’ age. this result is contradicted by the constructed hypothesis based on sever et al. (2017), suggesting that there is a negative and significant effect of patients' age on their wtp for improvement in dental care. however, it should be noted that the previous study was conducted in croatia's public dental clinic for patients of all ages. in contrast, most of the respondents in this study were within a certain age range, above 25 years old. however, parents’ attention and awareness were still low. for instance, about 15% of parents never visited a dental service to check their children's orodental health. besides that, some parents stated in the interview that they would not go to dental care if their children did not get a toothache. similar to our findings, previous studies by vernazza et al. (2015) and srivastava et al. (2019) also failed to find any statistically significant influence of age on wtp for dental interventions. when asked how many times the respondents brought their children to a dental health facility in a year, 39 parents answered they never did. some parents maintained that they would visit dental service only when the children got a toothache or showed symptoms. parents and children mostly visit a dental health facility once a year (123 responses). however, this study could not inform a significant influence of the visit frequency on wtp (β=276.971; p=0.729). previously, vernazza et al. (2015) also found that frequent dental visits and wtp were not linked significantly (β=27.46; p=0.230). in this study, the insignificant influence could be attributed to parents' presumption that dental problems such as cavities are inevitable among children and losing teeth is part of growing up. this may make parents think that it is unnecessary to take children to the dentist earlier and more frequently unless there is a symptom of illness. longurova et al. (2018) found that parents of 7-12 years old did not know when to take preventive dental care for their children, and it would put the children's health at risk. interestingly, some parents from sdm wirobajan 3 and sdm suronatan claimed their children could go by themselves since dentists are already available at schools, so the parents could not tell the frequency precisely. some parents also stated their children became regular outpatients of student dentists. therefore, frequent visits to a dental service did not translate into a higher wtp. this study found that the perceived need for treatment positively and significantly influences wtp. parents perceive the risk status of their children seriously. if the dental status of children is riskier, parents are willing to spend a greater amount of money to minimize the risk. in the interview, parents were asked if their children had experienced any dental problems, and 58% revealed it was caries/cavities. the interview also collected information about children's daily consumption of sugary foods and drinks, and 72.3% of parents stated their children consumed sweet products every day. parents would have saptutyningsih & jati children’s dental caries prevention program: do parents willing to pay? jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 106 consistently higher valuations for dental services if there are dental problems and know their children's daily sugar intake. these perceptions increase the value of dental treatment (nyamuryekung'e et al. (2018). in diy, routine dental examinations are scheduled by the local community health center. however, the examination results submitted to the schools are only for those with severe problems with pressing needs for medical treatment. in a worst-case scenario, the results are not even submitted at all. therefore, the schools should play a more active role to know the examination results in detail and share with parents. it is needed to hire dentists working specifically for each school, and they will be responsible for implementing the program. several schools already have dentists, for example, in sdm suronatan and sdm wirobrajan 3. their work shift is once a week. however, there is no specific program, so not all students receive the benefits. in contrast, some schools do not yet have any dentists, such as in sdm notoprajan. conclusion this study examines the parents’ willingness to pay (wtp) for their children’s dental caries prevention program at elementary school. we surveyed 264 parents of students at three elementary schools in yogyakarta city. the finding showed that the total wtp value for caries prevention was idr 27,290,000, and the average value was idr 103,371. parents are willing to pay more as their income increases. dental treatment costs are included in national health insurance (bpjs), although it does not cover all kinds of treatment. with the information about wtp for dental prevention observed in the current study, the policymakers could evaluate the scheme or provide an alternative solution to decrease the prevalence of dental caries among children in indonesia. parents’ education level significantly and positively affects wtp. the higher the education, the higher wtp is, and vice versa, which indicates that a better understanding of dental health and its impact on overall wellbeing encourages people to prioritize preventive measures like paying for a dental program before the problem happens. therefore, raising awareness is important, and it could be done by holding socializations, campaigns, promotions, and educational events about dental health. formal education contributes to parents’ ability in the decision-making process about health. schools can also foster this and help those who did not attain a high education level to make a more informed decision-making regarding health and wellbeing. perceived need for treatment had a positive and significant influence on wtp, which means it is important to raise awareness of the risks among parents. the findings of this study imply that preventive care for caries could be more effective to hold at schools. this may also imply socialization for parents about the importance of children's dental health, especially for those who did not attain a higher education level. the role of the government, especially the health department, is important in this regard, including the existence of subsidized or even free dental health facilities. future studies will benefit from examining parents’ education level and perceived need for treatment in saptutyningsih & jati children’s dental caries prevention program: do parents willing to pay? jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 107 other indonesian provinces because results may vary depending on social and economic circumstances. references andini, n., indriati, g., & sabrian, f. 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disetujui: mei 2015 abstract: the great potential of zakat, infak and sedekah (zis) in east lombok regency is believed to be able to create justice wealth distribution and welfare of the people. however, received zis funds have not yet been optimal and is still far from the potential of zakat. so that, it was needed of optimizing the potential of zakat, one only measured from high efficiency. this research aims to analyze efficiency financial performance of regional zakat institution (bazda) by using data envelopment analysis (dea) method with intermediations approach. quantitative approach is conducted in this descriptive research. the object in this research is financial report bazda east lombok regency in period 2012-2014. this research applied data envelopment analysis method with constant return to scale (crs) asumption. there are two variables that have been used in this research is the input and output variables. the input variables are received zis funds, operating cost and wage staff. while the output variables are allocated zis funds and fixed assets. the results of these studies indicate that bazda in east lombok regency, efficiency at the end of 2012-2014 was 100 percent. efficiency goes on because the actual is t same as a target that was determined by dea. keywords: efficiency; zakat; bazda; data envelopment analysis (dea) jel classification: o12, o16, r11, r58 abstrak: besarnya potensi zakat, infak dan sedekah (zis) di kabupaten lombok timur diyakini dapat menciptakan keadilan distribusi kekayaan dan kesejahteraan masyarakat. akan tetapi, dana zis yang terhimpun belum optimal dan masih jauh dari potensi zakat yang ada. sehingga dibutuhkan optimalisasi potensi zakat, salah satunya diukur dari tingkat efisiensinya. studi ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis efisiensi kinerja keuangan badan amil zakat daerah (bazda) menggunkan metode data envelopment analysis (dea) dengan pendekatan intermediasi. objek yang diteliti adalah laporan keuangan bazda kabupaten lombok timur periode 2012-2014. metode yang digunakan adalah metode data envelopment analysis (dea) dengan asumsi constant return to scale (crs). ada dua variabel yang digunakan dalam studi ini yaitu variabel input dan output. variabel input yang digunakan adalah dana zis yang terhimpun, aktiva tetap dan gaji karyawan. sementara variabel outputnya adalah dana zis yang tersalurkan dan biaya operasional. hasil studi ini menunjukkan bahwa bazda kabupaten lombok timur mengalami efisiensi pada tahun 2012-2014 yaitu sebesar 100 persen. efisiensi terjadi karena nilai actual tidak sama dengan nilai target yang ditetapkan oleh dea. kata kunci: efisiensi; zakat; bazda; data envelopment analysis (dea) klasifikasi jel: o12, o16, r11, r58 doi: 10.18196/jesp.2015.0050.177-187 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015: 177-187 178 pendahuluan salah satu permasalahan yang dihadapi bangsa indonesia saat ini adalah disparitas dan kemiskinan. data terakhir pada bulan maret 2015 mencatat jumlah penduduk miskin indonesia mencapai 28,59 juta jiwa atau 11,22 persen (bps, 2015). kemiskinan merupakan bahaya besar bagi umat manusia ke dalam berbagai tindakan kejahatan dan tindakan kriminalitas akibat desakan ekonomi. nabi muhammad saw menyebutkan kemiskinan dapat membawa manusia jatuh dalam kekufuran. untuk mengatasi masalah ini perlu adanya sistem kesejahteraan yang berkelanjutan (supanra, 2014). melihat problematika ini sudah sepantasnya untuk memperhatikan salah satu solusi dalam islam untuk dapat menyejahterakan masyarakat yaitu dengan zakat, sedekah dan wakaf yang berbentuk amal jariyah. dalam mengentaskan kemiskinan diperlukan adanya kerjasama pemerintah dengan suatu lembaga yang dapat menghimpun, menyalurkan dan mengelola zakat yang dikeluarkan oleh muzakki untuk diberikan kepada yang berhak menerimanya. di indonesia, pengelolaan zakat telah diatur berdasarkan undang-undang no. 38 tahun 1999 tentang pengelolaan zakat dengan keputusan menteri agama (kma) no.581 tahun 1999 tentang pelaksanaan undangundang no.38 tahun 1999 dan keputusan direktur jendral bimbingan masyarakat islam dan urusan haji no.d/291 tahun 2000 tentang pedoman teknis pengelolaan zakat. ada dua tujuan dari pengelolaan zakat yang dijelaskan dalam undang-undang no.23 tahun 2011 yaitu: 1) meningkatkan efektivitas dan efisiensi pelayanan dalam pengelolaan zakat; 2) meningkatkan manfaat zakat untuk mewujudkan kesejahteraan masyarakat dan penanggulangan kemiskinan (isniyati, 2013). organisasi pengelolaan zakat (opz) adalah organisasi intermediasi yang bersifat nirlaba. seluruh beban operasional diambil dari dana zakat, infaq dan zakat yang terhimpun. hal ini pun dibenarkan oleh syariah, karena pengurus opz adalah amilin zakat yang juga termasuk dalam 8 asnaf yang berhak mendapatkan harta zakat. kegiatan tersebut digunakan untuk kegiatan operasional dan gaji amilin (akbar, 2009). masih banyak daerah di indonesia yang berada di bawah garis kemiskinan, di mana salah satunya adalah kabupaten lombok timur yang berada di nusa tenggara barat. kondisi umum masyarakat lombok timur bermata pencaharian sebagai petani yang bergantung pada lahan pertanian. jumlah penduduk miskin tertinggi terjadi pada tahun 2005 yaitu sebesar 295.381 ribu jiwa. akan tetapi, dari tahun ke tahun mengalami penurunan yang cukup signifikan yaitu pada tahun 2012 jumlah penduduk miskin yaitu 224.692 ribu jiwa (bps, 2012). kendati demikian, beragam kiat pemerintah kabupaten lombok timur telah direalisasikan dalam menurunkan angka itu, namun jumlah kemiskinan di kabupaten lombok timur tetap menjadi yang tertinggi di nusa tenggara barat. di kabupaten lombok timur sendiri terdapat satu lembaga amil zakat yaitu badan amil zakat daerah (bazda). di pulau lombok secara umum memiliki sekitar dua bazda tingkat kabupaten dan satu baznas mataram yang memiliki visi dan misi yang sama dalam mensejahterakan masyarakat. akan tetapi, besarnya potensi zakat ini belum dibarengi dengan pengoptimalan penghimpunan maupun pendistribusian. sehingga untuk mengetahui sejauh mana lembaga amil zakat mampu menghimpun dan menyalurkan zakat, infak dan sedekah (zis) yang terhimpun perlu adanya standar tata kelola yang baik, di mana salah satu indikatornya adalah efisiensi dan efektifitas sebagai tolak ukur kinerja lembaga keuangan (kadry, 2014). rahmayanti (2014) menganalisis efisiensi dari tiga lembaga amil zakat di indonesia yaitu pkpu, rumah zakat dan bamuis bni pada periode 2009-2011. variabel input yang digunakan yaitu jumlah dana zakat yang dihimpun, biaya operasional dan gaji karyawan. sedangkan variabel output yang diteliti terdiri dari jumlah dana zakat yang disalurkan, aktiva tetap dan aktiva lancar. hasil dari studi ini menunjukkan pada tahun 2009-2011 ratarata tingkat efisiensi pkpu dan bamuis bni sudah mencapai 100 persen. akbar (2009) mengukur tingkat efisiensi dari sembilan organisasi pengelola zakat efisiensi kinerja keuangan ... (alfi lestari) 179 (opz) nasional yaitu lazmuh, ybm bri, bmm, bamuis bni, baznas, pkpu, dd, rzi dan ydsf. variabel input terdiri dari biaya personalia, biaya sosialisasi dan biaya operasional lainnya. sementara variabel output yang diteliti adalah dana terhimpun dan dana tersalurkan. hasil studi ini menunjukkan efisiensi organisasi pengelola zakat (opz) pada tahun 2005 jauh lebih baik dari tahun 2006 dan 2007 baik secara teknis (94,52 persen), skala (75 persen) dan overall (71,27 persen). perhitungan terhadap 9 opz tahun 2007 dengan asumsi crs, menunjukkan hanya 2 opz yang efisien, yakni bmm dan bamuis bni. adapun wahab, dkk. (2006) telah meneliti tingkat efisiensi zakat dan faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi tingkat efisiensi zakat di malaysia. metode yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah metode data envelopment analysis (dea) dengan malmquist productivity index and technical efficiency. variabel input yang diteliti adalah jumlah karyawan dan jumlah pengeluaran. sementara variabel output yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah jumlah dana zakat yang dihimpun, jumlah dana zakat yang didistribusikan dan jumlah pembayar zakat (amilin). hasil dari studi ini menilai rata-rata sebesar 80,6 persen lembaga amil zakat di malaysia memiliki efisiensi teknis. hasil studi dengan model bcc yang diteliti aini (2012) dengan asumsi vrs (variabel return to scale) menunjukkan bahwa secara rata-rata tingkat efisiensi ketiga lembaga amil zakat nasional mengalami kenaikan dari tahun 20082009. dipandang dari segi input dan output pada tahun 2008, ketiga laznas, pkpu dan rumah zakat, mencapai nilai efisien yang maksimal, sedangkan ydsf mengalami inefisiensi. perhitungan efisiensi dengan menggunakan orientasi output model crs (constant return to scale) dan vrs (variabel return to scale) dengan metode dea (data envelopment analysis). pendekatan yang digunakan adalah pendekatan produksi dengan variabel input dan variabel output. hasil dari studi ini menunjukkan bahwa tingkat efisiensi skala tertinggi ada pada ybui bni sebesar 81 persen, rumah zakat 76 persen, lazis swadaya ummah sebesar 74 persen dan dompet dhuafa 74 persen (wulandari, 2014). adapun posisi penulis, terdapat dua hal yang membedakan studi ini dibandingkan dengan studi-studi sebelumnya, yakni objek studi yang berbeda dan pemilihan variabel input dan output yang berbeda juga. secara umum penulis juga menggunakan berbagai literatur ini juga untuk menunjukkan bahwa metode dea dapat diterapkan dalam berbagai bidang, baik lembaga sosial, lembaga keuangan dan kredit mikro. adapun tujuan dari studi ini adalah untuk mengetahui tingkat efisiensi bazda kabupaten lombok timur selama tiga tahun yaitu 2012-2014, serta untuk mengetahui faktor-faktor yang menyebabkan efisiensi atau tidaknya bazda dalam menghimpun, mengelola dan mendistribusikan zis. metode penelitian jenis dan sumber data studi ini menggunakan data sekunder yang berasal dari badan amil zakat daerah (bazda) kabupaten lombok timur yang mempunyai laporan keuangan yang transparan dan dipublikasikan ke masyarakat. sementara jenis data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder yang berupa laporan keuangan dan literatur-literatur yang berkaitan dengan efisiensi pengelolaan dana zakat, infak, dan sedekah. adapun variabel input dan output yang akan diuji ditunjukkan pada tabel 1. alasan penggunaan variabel-variabel tersebut dalam studi ini adalah karena variabel tersebut dianggap dapat mewakili fungsi dan perilaku yang dapat mencerminkan kegiatan badan amil zakat daerah sebagai amilin. dalam studi ini variabel input yang dipilih adalah dana zis yang terhimpun, aktiva tetap dan gaji karyawan. gaji karyawan pada bazda (badan amil zakat daerah) kabupaten lombok timur berasal dari dana hibah apbd. mengapa variabel ini dipilih sebagai variabel input, karena secara teknis variabel ini dianggap sebagai pengorbanan atau sumber daya yang harus dikeluarkan untuk menghasilkan output yang optimal. sementara variabel output yang dipilih dalam studi ini adalah dana zis yang disalurkan dan biaya operasional. dana zis yang disalurkan berasal dari pengor jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015: 177-187 180 banan variabel input dan tidak semua biaya operasional berasal dari dana hibah apbd. teknik pengumpulan data yang digunakan dalam studi ini berupa desk riset yang dikenal juga dengan studi pustaka (dokumentasi) dan observasi. dalam teknik desk riset, peneliti memperoleh data dengan cara melihat laporan keuangan bazda kabupaten lombok timur. alat analisis metode yang digunakan dalam dalam studi ini adalah data envelopment analysis (dea). pendekatan yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah pendekatan intermediasi dengan analisis kuantitatif yaitu dalam pengolahan data berupa input dan output yang diambil dari neraca keuangan, laporan arus kas, laporan perubahan dana yang dimiliki oleh masingmasing lembaga. adapun asumsi yang digunakan adalah constant return to scale (crs). rusdyana (2013) ada dua teknik pengukuran efisiensi, yakni orientasi input dan orientasi output. pengukuran berorientasi input,menurut akbar (2009) menunjukkan sejumlah input dapat dikurangi secara proporsional tanpa mengubah jumlah output yang dihasilkan. efisiensi pada suatu unit kerja ekonomi/perusahaan selalu berkaitan dengan bagaimana cara menghasilkan tingkat output yang maksimal dengan jumlah input tertentu (farell, 1957). farell (1957) mengilustrasikan idenya dengan menggunakan sebuah perusahaan yang menggunakan dua input yaitu x1 dan x2 untuk memproduksi satu output (y) dengan asumsi constant returnt to scale (crs), seperti yang ditunjukkan gambar 1. sumber: farell (1975) gambar 1. efisiensi teknis dan alokatif tabel 1. variabel input dan output bazda dengan metode dea variabel input definisi sumber data 1. dana zis yang dihimpun (x1) dana zakat yang dihimpun adalah dana zakat yang berhasil dihimpun dari para muzakki oleh suatu lembaga dalam periode tertentu. laporan keuangan bazda kabupaten lombok timur 2. aktiva tetap (x2) aktiva tetap adalah harta lembaga yang dapat berupa tanah, gedung, asset tidak lancar dan kendaraan yang dihitung dalam rupiah. laporan keuangan bazda kabupaten lombok timur 3. gaji karyawan (x3) gaji karyawan adalah sejumlah dana yang dikeluarkan untuk membayar para pekerja atau karyawan didalam suatu lembaga. laporan keuangan bazda kabupaten lombok timur variabel output definisi sumber data 1. jumlah dana zis yang disalurkan (y1) dana zakat yang disalurkan adalah dana zakat yang telah disalurkan kepada mustahik pada periode tertentu dalam bentuk program-program pemberdayaan maupun penyaluran langsung yang langsung diberikan secara tunai. laporan keuangan bazda kabupaten lombok timur 2. biaya operasional (y2) biaya operasional adalah biaya yang dikeluarkan oleh badan amil zakat yang tidak berhubungan langsung dengan penerimaan manfaat (mustahik). laporan keuangan bazda kabupaten lombok timur efisiensi kinerja keuangan ... (alfi lestari) 181 dengan menggunakan garis isoquant dari sebuah perusahaan dengan kondisi efisiensi penuh (full efficient firm), yang diwakili oleh kurva ss’ dalam gambar di atas, maka dilakukan penghitungan efisiensi teknik. garis aa’ menggambarkan kombinasi input yang dapat dibeli oleh produsen dengan tingkat biaya yang sama (efisiensi secara alokatif). sementara garis op menunjukkan kombinasi input yang digunakan oleh suatu perusahaan. titik q’ menunjukkan tingkat efisiensi secara teknis dan alokatif. titik p menunjukkan inefisiensi karena tidak berada pada kurva isocost dan isoquant. adapun titik r menunjukkan efisiensi secara alokatif, sedangkan titik q efisiensi secara teknis. tingkat efisiensi secara teknis diperoleh dari rasio: te (technical efficiency ) = oq/op 1) sementara itu, tingkat efisiensi secara alokatif diperoleh dari rasio berikut: ae (allocative efficiency ) = or/oq 2) sementara pengukuran berorientasi output, menghitung berbagai output yang dapat ditingkatkan tanpa mengubah jumlah input yang dihasilkan. pengukuran ini biasa dituliskan dengan kalimat lain: efisiensi naik = dalam penjelasannya, farell (1975) memberikan contoh perusahaan yang memproduksi data output yakni q1 dan q2 dengan sebuah x. asumsi yang digunakan adalah constant return to scale (crs), sehingga didapat kurva kemungkinan produksi atau production possibility curve yang ditunjukkan dengan zz’ adalah garis kemungkinan produksi dan point a menunjukkan tingkat inefisiensi sebuah perusahaan. perhatikan bahwa perusahaan pada titik a beroperasi di bawah garis kemungkinan produksi, karena zz’ mempresentasikan batas atas dari kemungkinan produksi. titik b menggambarkan efisien secara teknis, karena terletak pada production possibility curve. titik c menunjukkan efisien secara alokatif karena berada pada garis isorevenue dd’. kondisi yang paling ideal adalah apabila perusahaan mampu beroperasi pada titik b’, dimana ia efisiens secara teknis dan alokatif. sumber: coelli, 2005 gambar 2. kurva efisiensi dengan orientasi output ab menunjukkan inefisiensi secara teknis yang berarti bahwa output bisa ditingkatkan menjadi b tanpa adanya tambahan input. maka, perhitungan efisiensi teknis dan alokatif dapat dijelaskan oleh persamaan berikut. te (technical efficiency )=oa/ob 3) ae (allocative efficiency )=ob/oc 4) kemudian, kita dapat mendefinisikan overall revenue efficiency dengan menggabungkan kedua persamaan di atas. re (revenue efficiency )= (oa/oc) = (oa/ob) x (ob/oc) = te x ae 5) data envelopment analysis (dea) adalah suatu metodologi yang digunakan untuk mengevaluasi efisiensi dari suatu unit pengambilan keputusan (unit kerja) yang bertanggungjawab menggunakan sejumlah input untuk memperoleh suatu output yang ditargetkan. dea memiliki dua model yaitu model ccr dan bcc. model ccr merupakan model yang paling jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015: 177-187 182 dasar yang dikembangkan pada tahun 1978 oleh charnes, cooper dan rhodes. model ccr merupakan model dasar dea yang menggunakan asumsi constan return to scale yang mengasumsikan bahwa penambahan satu unit input harus menghasilkan penambahan satu unit output. sementara model bcc (banker, charnes dan cooper) yang dikenal sebagai variabel return to scale (vrs) mengaasumsikan bahwa setiap penambahan satu unit input tidak berarti diikuti dengan penambahan satu unit output, penambahan outputnya bisa lebih besar dari pada satu (increasing return to scale), kurang dari satu (decreasing return to scale). dea merupakan model pemerograman fraksional yang bisa mencakup banyak output dan input tanpa perlu menentukan bobot untuk tiap variabel sebelumnya, tanpa perlu penjelasan eksplisit mengenai hubungan fungsional antara input dan output (tidak seperti regresi). pada dasarnya teknis analisis dea didesain khusus untuk mengukur efisiensi relatif suatu unit kegiatan ekonomi (uke) dalam kondisi banyak input maupun output, di mana penggabungan input dan output tersebut tidak mungkin dilakukan. ada tiga manfaat yang diperoleh dari pengukuran efisiensi dengan dea, yaitu:1) sebagai tolok ukur untuk memperoleh efisiensi relatif yang berguna untuk mempermudah perbandingan antara unit ekonomi yang sama; 2) mengukur berbagai informasi efisiensi antar unit kegiatan ekonomi untuk mengindentifikasi faktor-faktor penyebabnya; 3) menentukan implikasi kebijakan sehingga dapat meningkatkan tingkat efisiensinya. sedangkan keterbatasan dea adalah: 1) mensyaratkan semua input dan output harus spesifik dan dapat diukur; 2) dea berasumsi bahwa setiap unit input atau output identik dengan unit lain dalam tipe yang sama; 3) dalam bentuk dasarnya, dea berasumsi adanya crs (constant return to scale; 4) bobot input dan output yang dihasilkan dea sulit untuk ditafsirkan dalam nilai ekonomi. setiap uke diasumsikan bebas menentukan bobot untuk setiap variabel-variabel input maupun output yang ada, asalkan mampu memenuhi dua kondisi disyaratkan yaitu: 1) bobot tidak boleh negatif; 2) bobot harus bersifat universal hal ini berarti setiap uke dalam sampel harus dapat menggunakan seperangkat bobot yang sama untuk mengevaluasi rasionya dan rasio tersebut tidak lebih dari 1. suatu uke dikatakan efisien secara relatif apabila nilai dualnya sama dengan 1 (efisien 100 persen), sebaliknya apabila nilai dualnya kurang dari 1, maka uke yang bersangkutan dianggap tidak efisien secara relatif. efisiensi teknis badan amil zakat daerah dapat diukur dengan menghitung rasio antara output dan inputnya. dea akan menghitung bazda yang menggunakan input n untuk menghasilkan output m yang berbeda. ∑ ∑ keterangan: es adalah efisiensi bazda s; m adalah output bazda s yang diamati; n adalah input bazda s yang diamati; yis adalah jumlah output yang ke i yang dihasilkan; xjs adalah jumlah input ke j yang digunakan; ui = s x 1 jumlah bobot output; vj = s x 1 jumlah bobot input. persamaan di atas menunjukkan adanya penggunaan satu variabel input dan satu variabel output. rasio efisiensi (es), kemudian dimaksimumkan dengan kendala sebagai berikut: ∑ ∑ 1 di mana ui dan vj ≥ 0 pertidaksamaan pertama menjelaskan bahwa adanya rasio untuk uke lain tidak lebih dari 1, sementara pertidaksamaan kedua berbobot non-negatif (positif). angka rasio akan bervariasi anatara 0 sampai dengan 1. bazda dikatakan tidak efisien apabila memiliki angka rasio mendekati 1 atau 100 persen, sebaliknya apabila mendekati 0 menunjukkan efisiensi bazda yang semakin rendah. pada dea, setiap bazda dapat menentukan bobotnya masing-masing dan menjamin bahwa pembobotnya masing-masing dan menjamin bahwa pembobotnya yang dipilih akan menghasilkan kinerja yang terbaik. efisiensi kinerja keuangan ... (alfi lestari) 183 hasil dan pembahasan sebuah organisasi pengelola zakat dikatakan efisien apabila nilainya mencapai angka 100 persen atau setara dengan 1. semakin ia menjauh dari angka 100 persen atau mendekati angka 0 persen, maka akan semakin tidak efisien (akbar, 2009). menurut huri dan susilowati (2004), suatu perusahaan dapat dikatakan efisien apabila: 1) mempergunakan jumlah unit input yang lebih sedikit dibandingkan jumlah unit input yang digunakan oleh perusahaan lain dengan menghasilkan jumlah output yang sama; 2) menggunakan jumlah unit input yang sama, tetapi dapat menghasilkan jumlah output yang lebih besar. tabel 2 menunjukkan hasil pengolahan variabel input dan output dengan software banxia frontier analyst 4.0 adalah sebagai berikut: tabel 2. nilai efisiensi bazda dengan asumsi constant return to scale (dalam persen) tahun efisiensi bazda (%) constant return to scale (crs) 2012 100 % 2013 100 % 2014 100 % sumber: laporan keuangan bazda kabupaten lombok timur 2012-2014 (diolah dengan banxia frontier analyst 4.0) tabel 2 menunjukkan hasil analisis efisiensi dari laporan keuangan badan amil zakat daerah (bazda) kabupaten lombok timur dengan asumsi constant return to scale (crs). hasil analisis efisiensi dengan asumsi crs menunjukkan efisiensi dari tiga tahun (20122014) yaitu sebesar 100 persen karena bazda berhasil mencapai tingkat efisiensi. a. efisiensi bazda periode 2012 bazda kabupaten lombok timur pada tahun 2012 telah mencapai nilai efisiensi sebesar 100 persen atau senilai dengan 1 dengan asumsi crs. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa bazda telah mampu menggunakan input yang ada untuk menghasilkan output yang maksimal. pencapaian efisiensi ini dapat dilihat pada setiap variabel input dan output yang ditunjukkan pada tabel 3. tabel 3 menunjukkan hasil analisis efisiensi bazda kabupaten lombok timur pada tahun 2012 yang menunjukkan tingkat nilai efisiensinya telah mencapai 100 persen dengan asumsi crs. artinya nilai 100 persen menunjukkan bahwa bazda kabupaten lombok timur mampu mencapai nilai actual(nilai sebenarnya) dengan nilai target (nilai harus dicapai) yang disarankan oleh perhitungan dea. pembuktiannya dapat dilihat dari nilai potential improvementnya sebesar 0 persen artinya tidak ada nilai actualyang tidak mencapai nilai target. b. efisiensi bazda periode 2013 pada tahun 2013 nilai efisiensi bazda kabupaten lombok timur ketika dianalisis dengan asumsi crs mengalami efisiensi sebesar 100 persen atau mendekati 1. hal ini terjadi karena pada asumsi crs besarnya input dapat dikurangi dengan sejumlah output yang sama (akbar, 2009). hal ini menunjukkan bazda telah mampu mencapai nilai target yang sama dengan nilai actual sehingga potential improvementnya adalah 0. pencapaian efisiensi ini dapat tabel 3. efisiensi bazda dengan asumsi constant return to scale (crs) periode 2012 (nilai actual, targetdan potential improvement input-output) variabel asumsi crs(rupiah) potential improvement efisiensi (%) actual target dana zis dihimpun 2.358.611.214 2.358.611.214 0,00% 100% aktiva tetap 1.183.125.000 1.183.125.000 0,00% gaji karyawan 336.600.000 336.600.000 0,00% dana zis disalurkan 2.540.446.504 2.540.446.504 0,00% biaya operasional 336.023.996 336.023.996 0,00% sumber: laporan keuangan bazda kabupaten lombok timur periode 2012 (data diolah dengan software banxia frontier analyst 4.0) jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015: 177-187 184 dilihat pada setiap variabel input dan output yang ditunjukkan pada tabel 4. tabel 4 menunjukkan hasil analisis efisiensi yang tidak berbeda dengan tahun sebelumnya, pada tabel ini juga dibuktikan bahwa bazda sudah efisien secara relatif maksimal. dengan kata lain, bazda sudah mencapai nilai actual yang sama dengan nilai target yang telah disarankan oleh dea. dalam hal ini, pengelolaan dana zakat di bazda pada periode 2012 juga sudah sangat baik. hal ini terlihat dari peningkatan jumlah dana penerimaan zakat yang terhimpun yaitu dari rp2.358.611.214,00 menjadi rp2.866.795.692,00. artinya bazda telah mampu mengoptimalkan potensi zakat yang ada di kabupaten lombok timur. c. efisiensi bazda periode 2014 nilai efisiensi bazda kabupaten lombok timur pada tahun 2014 telah mencapai indikator efisiensi yaitu sebesar 100 persen, dengan asumsi constant return to scale (crs). pencapaian efisiensi ini ditunjukkan pada tabel 5. tabel 5 menunjukkan bahwa bazda masih sama dari dua tahun sebelumnya, konsisten dalam mempertahankan tingkat efisiensi secara relatif maksimal dari tahun ke tahun. dengan kata lain, bazda telah mencapai nilai actual yang sama dengan nilai target yang sudah disarankan oleh dea yaitu 100 persen disemua variabel input maupun outputnya. dalam hal ini, pengelolaan zakat oleh bazda periode 2014 sudah baik. kinerja pengelolaan keuangan bazda tetap efisien karena jumlah peningkatan dan penyaluran dana zakat sudah sesuai dengan target perhitungan efisiensi dengan dea serta bazda telah mampu mengurangi biaya operasional serta gaji karyawan. efisiensi terjadi pada semua variabel input dan output, studi ini sejalan dengan rahmayanti (2014) yaitu pada pkpu (2009-2011) dengan menggunakan orientasi input dengan pendekatan intermediasi dan asumsi constant return to scale (crs) yang telah mengalami efisiensi pada variabel input dana zis terhimpun dan gaji karyawan. variabel output pada studi rahmayanti (2014) mengalami efisiensi yaitu pada dana zis yang tersalurkan. hasil ini juga sejalan dengan studi wahyutabel 4. efisiensi bazda kabupaten lombok timur dengan asumsi constant return to scale (crs) periode 2013 (nilai actual, targetdan potential improvement input-output) variabel asumsi crs(rupiah) potential improvement efisiensi (%) actual target dana zis dihimpun 2.866.795.692 2.866.795.692 0,00% 100% aktiva tetap 1.073.804.250 1.073.804.250 0,00% gaji karyawan 321.000.000 321.000.000 0,00% dana zis disalurkan 1.573.328.215 1.573.328.215 0,00% aktiva tetap 367.072.613 367.072.613 0,00% sumber: laporan keuangan bazda kabupaten lombok timur periode 2013 (data diolah dengan software banxia frontier analyst 4.0) tabel 5. efisiensi bazda kabupaten lombok timur dengan asumsi constant return to scale (crs) periode 2014 (nilai actual, targetdan potential improvement input-output) variabel asumsi crs dan vrs (rupiah) potential improvement efisiensi (%) actual target dana zis dihimpun 7.524.266.703 7.524.266.703 0,00% 100% aktiva tetap 1.095.810.375 1.095.810.375 0,00% gaji karyawan 321.000.000 321.000.000 0,00% dana zis disalurkan 4.298.759.000 4.298.759.000 0,00% biaya operasional 360.822.566 360.822.566 0,00% sumber: laporan keuangan bazda kabupaten lombok timur periode 2014 (data diolah dengan software banxia frontier analyst 4.0) efisiensi kinerja keuangan ... (alfi lestari) 185 ny (2015) dengan pendekatan intermediasi dan variabel yang sama menunjukkan efisiensi pada variabel input dan variabel output dari baznas, dompet dhuafa dan lazis nu pada tahun 2013. sementara dengan pendekatan produksi terjadi inefisiensi pada dompet dhuafa (2013) yaitu terjadi inefisiensi pada biaya personalia, biaya operasional. sedangkan pada variabel output yaitu dana ziswaf yang disalurkan tidak efisien sehingga hal ini berbanding terbalik dengan studi penulis. studi ini berbanding terbalik dengan studi yang dilakukan oleh isyanti (2013) pada baznas kabupaten kuningan dan rahmayanti (2014) pada rumah zakat (2009) dengan variabel input yang sama yaitu terjadi inefisiensi pada dana zis yang dihimpun dan gaji karyawan yang disebabkan karena dana yang tertahan pada amilin dan terjadinya pemborosan pada variabel input. sementara pada variabel output dalam studi rahmayanti (2014) berbanding lurus karena terjadi efisiensi pada dana zis yang tersalurkan. hal yang sama terjadi pada studi wulandari (2013) dengan pendekatan yang sama (intermediasi) menunjukkan bahwa baznas telah mengalami inefisiensi pada tahun 2011 karena aset dan biaya operasional yang kelebihan pada variabel input. sementara pada variabel output baznas harus meningkatkan penghimpunan zakat agar efisien. adapun pada studi akbar (2009) dengan pendekatan yang sama menunjukkan terjadinya inefisiensi pada ybm (yayasan baitul maal) bri pada tahun 2007 telah mengalami decreasing atau minus satu, menunjukkan bahwa penambahan input tidak dapat menambah output yang sama besarnya atau lebih besar. oleh karenanya, diperlukan pengurangan input hingga mencapai titik constant return to scale (crs). faktor yang menyebabkan efisiensi secara teknis adalah maksimalnya penggunaan kapasitas input. suatu unit kegiatan ekonomi (uke) akan dikatakan efisien ketika suatu unit dapat beroperasi secara tepat. secara matematis dapat dijelaskan ketika setiap rasio input ideal akan menghasilkan output yang ideal dan rasio ideal itulah yang dikatakan sebagai efisiensi. untuk itu maka harus dilihat berapakah potensial improvementyang harus dilakukan suatu perusahaan atau lembaga keuangan untuk mencapai hasil yang efisien (wicaksono, 2014). gambar 3 ini menunjukkan score distribution untuk melihat distribusi dari variabel input dan output bazda selama tiga tahun (2012-2014). distribusi bazda kabupaten lombok timur selama tiga tahun ditandai dengan grafik balok warna hijau. grafik balok warna hijau menandakan bahwa suatu uke telah mencapai tingkat efisien. ini menunjukkan bahwa bazda telah mampu mencapai tingkat efisien secara maksimal relatif. seperti yang tergambar pada gambar 3. secara menyeluruh selama tiga periode (2012-2014) bazda telah mampu mencapai tingkat efisiensi yaitu sebesar 100 persen. hal sumber: laporan keuangan bazda kabupaten lombok timur 2012-2014 (data diolah dengan banxia frontier analyst 4.0) gambar 3. score distribution efisiensi dengan asumsi constant return to scale (crs) pada bazda periode 2012-2014 distribution of scores 0 to 10 11 to 20 21 to 30 31 to 40 41 to 50 51 to 60 61 to 70 71 to 80 81 to 90 91 to 99.9 ef ficient 3,2 3 2,8 2,6 2,4 2,2 2 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015: 177-187 186 ini disebabkan karena seluruh variabel input dan output bazda telah sesuai dengan perhitungan efisiensi pada dea. yaitu ketika nilai actual dari setiap variabel mampu mencapai nilai target yang disarankan oleh dea. asumsi constant return to scale (crs) mencanangkan seluruh uke (unit kegiatan ekonomi) beroperasi dalam skala optimal. namun dalam kenyataannya meskipun uke tersebut beroperasi dengan sumber daya (input) yang sama dan menghasilkan output yang sama pula tetapi dengan kondisi internal dan eksternalnya mungkin berbeda sehingga menyebabkan sebuah uke tidak berada dalam skala optimal. model ini dapat menunjukkan efisiensi teknis secara keseluruhan dari profit efficiency untuk setiap uke. simpulan berdasarkan hasil analisis tingkat efisiensi badan amil zakat daerah (bazda) kabupaten lombok timur dengan menggunakan metode data envelopment analysis (dea) periode 20122014 dengan pendekatan intermediasi dalam menentukan variabel input dan output, maka kesimpulan dari studi ini adalah sebagai berikut: 1) bazda kabupaten lombok timur berhasil mencapai tingkat efisiensi pada tiga periode 2012-2014 yaitu 100 persen atau senilai dengan 1. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa bazda telah mampu mencapai nilai actual (nilai sebenarnya) sesuai dengan nilai target (nilai yang harus dicapai) yang disarankan oleh dea. hal ini dapat dibuktikan dari nilai potential improvement (selisih jarak nilai antara nilai actual dengan nilai target) yaitu sebesar 0 persen. artinya tidak ada nilai actual yang tidak mencapai nilai target; 2) secara menyeluruh bazda telah mampu mencapai efisiensi maksimum secara relatif. hal ini disebabkan karena seluruh variabel input dan output bazda telah sesuai dengan perhitungan efisiensi dea. yaitu ketika nilai actual dari setiap variabel mampu mencapai nilai target yang disarankan oleh dea. berdasarkan kesimpulan di atas, berikut ini adalah saran-saran yang dapat peneliti sampaikan kepada beberapa pihak: 1) bagi bazda kabupaten lombok timur guna mendorong kemajuan dan perbaikan dalam meningkatkan pengelolaan zakat serta efisiensi kinerja keuangan bazda maka penulis memberikan saran sebagai berikut: a) setelah diketahui program kerja bazda kabupaten lombok timur dalam penghimpunan, penyaluran dan pendayagunaan zakat, infak dan sedekah (zis) untuk lebih disosialisasikan ke seluruh lapisan masyarakat dengan berbagai media baik itu media massa dan media elektronik; b) pengelolaan zis harus mengikuti alur zaman yaitu dengan pola kontemporer (modern) yang mempadupadankan teknologi serta bekerjasama dengan beberapa lembaga yang terkait dalam mendukung kinerja bazda dalam menghimpun dan menyalurkan dana dari muzakki kepada mustahik. perlu adanya sosialisai gerakan zis sedini mungkin kepada anak-anak sekolah mulai dari sd-sma, untuk menumbuhkan rasa simpati, syukur dan sosial; c) menumbuhkan semangat zis dalam pendistribusian dan pemberdayaan zis, khususnya dalam kegiatan ekonomi produktif guna meningkatkan motivasi masyarakat dalam mengembangkan usaha, dengan dana ekonomi produktif ini diharapkan masyarakat mampu keluar dari status sebagai seorang mustahik dan menjadi muzakki seperti yang tercantum dalam salah satu visi bazda; d) setelah dilakukan analisis efisiensi pada laporan keuangan bazda kabupaten lombok timur selama tiga tahun (2012-2014) maka upaya yang harus dilakukan ialah bazda kabupaten lombok timur sebaiknya dapat memaksimalkan potensi zakat yang ada di lombok timur dan tetap mempertahankan efisiensi. mensosialisasikan gerakan sadar zakat berupa acara kajian-kajian ditengah masyarakat sehingga para muzakki sadar akan kewajibannya untuk membayarkan zakat. selain itu, bazda kabupaten lombok timur sebaiknya meminimalisir biaya operasional dan gaji karyawan agar dapat memaksimalkan dana zakat yang diperoleh tiap tahun oleh bazda kabupaten lombok timur sehingga dapat didistribusikan secara menyeluruh sesuai dengan visi, misi yang telah diterapkan dan sasaran yang dituju sehingga dapat tercapai tujuan dari lembaga amil zakat yaitu mengentaskan kemiskinan; e) setelah mengunjungi website bazda kabupaten lombok timur khususnya di bagian laporan keuangan masih sangat minim, publikasi laporan keuangannya efisiensi kinerja keuangan ... (alfi lestari) 187 hanya terbatas pada peneriamaan dan penyaluran dana. dalam meningkatkan kepercayaan masyarakat terhadap bazda kabupaten lombok timur sebaiknya lebih transparan dalam mempublikasikan laporan keuangan sehingga masyarakat tahu dana zis yang dititipkan ke amilin didistribusikan kemana dan kepada siapa jika perlu. karena dengan adanya transparansi ini sebagai salah satu upaya meningkatkan kepercayaan masyarakat dan menarik masyarakat yang belum mengeluarkan zakat untuk menitipkan zakat melalui bazda untuk didistribusikan ke 8 asnaf; f) bagi pengembangan ilmu, sebaiknya lebih banyak lagi melakukan studi-studi tentang kinerja lembaga zakat yang ada di indonesia khususnya lembaga amil zakat yang di kabupaten/ kota. sehingga memberikan solusi dan memudahkan para pengelola zakat dalam memperbaiki kinerja dan mampu untuk terus mengubah model pengelolaan zakat menjadi lebih ideal agar dapat menanggulangi kemiskinan yang ada di indonesia secara bersamasama demi kesejahteraan masyarakat. daftar pustaka akbar, n. (2009). analisis efisiensi organisasi pengelola zakat nasional dengan pendekatan data envelopment analysis. jurnal islamic finance and business review vol. 4. no. 2. bogor: tazkia aini, n.n. (2012). efisiensi lembaga zakat nasional menggunakan metode data envelopment analysis periode 2008-2009”. skripsi. semarang: undip. world bank (2015). ikhtisar. diakses dari http://www.worldbank.org/in/country /indonesia/overview pada tanggal 30 januari 2015 09.00 wib badan pusat statistik. (2015). presentase penduduk miskin maret 2015 mencapai 11,22 persen. diakses dari http://www. bps.go.id/brs/view/id/1158 pada tanggal 22 april 2015 11.10 wib badan pusat statistik. (2012). jumlah penduduk miskin di kabupaten lombok timur 2005-2012. diakses dari http://lombok timurkab.bps.go.id/subjek/view/id/23# subjekviewtab3|accordion-daftarsubjek1 pada tanggal 09 april 2015 11.10 wib coelli,timothy j.d.s. prasada rao, christopher j. o’donnell dan george e. battese. (2005). an introduction to efficiency and productivity analysis, edisikedua. springer. isniyati, n.r. (2013). pengelolaan zakat pada badan amil zakat nasional (baznas) kabupaten kuningan. skripsi. yogyakarta: uin sunan kalijaga. kadry, r. (2014). analisis efisiensi lembaga amil zakat (laz) di indonesia dengan metode data envelopment analysis (dea), (studi kasus pada rumah zakat, lazis swadaya ummah, dompet dhuafa dan ybui bni tahun 2010-2012). skripsi. yogyakarta: uin sunan kalijaga keputusan menteri agama republik indonesia nomor 373 tahun 2003 tentang pelaksanaan undang-undang nomor 38 tahun 1999 tentang pengelolaan zakat. laporan keuangan badan amil zakat daerah kabupaten lombok timur, diakses dari http://www.baznaskablotim.com/ pada tanggal 22 maret 2015 09.20 wib norazlina, dkk. (2013). determinants of efficiency of zakat institutions in malaysia: a non parametric approach. asian journal of business and accounting . vol 6. no.2. qardhawi, y. (2004). hukum zakat. jakarta: pt. pustaka litera antamusa rahmayanti, a. (2014). efisiensi lembaga amil zakat dalam mengelola dana zakat di indonesia (studi kasus: pkpu, rumah zakat dan bamuis bni). skripsi. jakarta: uin syarif hidayatullah rusydiana, dkk. (2013). mengukur tingkat efisiensi dengan data envelopment analysis. katulampa bogor: smart publishing supanra, m.d. (2014). revolusi zakat & revitalisasi baitulmaal. yogyakarta: gentapress wulandari, r. (2014). analisis efisiensi lembaga zakat nasional di indonesia menggunakan data envelopment analysis (dea) periode 20112012. skripsi. surakarta: universitas muhammadiyah surakarta. microsoft word 11-masyhudi _198-214_.doc jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 8, nomor 2, oktober 2007: 198-214 qawaid fiqhiyyah sebagai landasan perilaku ekonomi umat islam: suatu kajian teoritik masyhudi muqorobin fakultas ekonomi universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta jalan lingkar selatan, tamantirto, kasihan, bantul, yogyakarta, telp/fax. 0274-387656 psw 184, 387646 e-mail: masmuqorobin@umy.ac.id abstract this article report research result to qawa'id fiqhiyyah and the implication in economic behavior and idea in public. in this case, understanding to qawa'id fiqhiyyah is absolute is needed to do "ijtihad" or reconditional of idea. some moslem scholars and fuqaha are former, since end century second hijriyyah have blazed the way stone of situating of qawa'id through their grands masterpieces, what up this moment until now still seen the benefit for implementations in modern lives, inclusion is economic. some moslem scholars/fuqaha from are fourth fiqh madzhab compile qawa'id in number which so much, part of it same or similar, so that hard in order to be known the numbers surely. this research focus at 99 (ninety nine) qawa'id which compiled by moslem scholars at dynasties turki, usmani, that is al-majallah al-ahkaam al-‘adliyyah at about early century thirteenth hijriyah or precisely around year of 1286 h. keywords: perilaku ekonomi, qawa’id fiqhiyyah, qa’idah asasiyyah, pendahuluan sebagai landasan aktifitas ummat islam seharihari dalam usaha memahami maksud-maksud ajaran islam (maqasidusy syari’ah) se’ara lebih menyeluruh, keberadaan qawa’id fiqhiyyah menjadi sesuatu yang amat penting, termasuk dalam kehidupan berekonomi. baik di mata para ahli usul (usuliyyun) maupun fuqaha, pemahaman terhadap qawa’id fiqhiyyah adalah mutlak diperlukan untuk melakukan suatu “ijtihad” atau pembaharuan pemikiran dalam masalah muamalat atau lebih khas lagi ekonomi. manfaat keberadaan qawa’id fiqhiyyah adalah untuk menyediakan panduan yang lebih praktis yang diturunkan dari nash asalnya yaitu al-qur’an dan al-hadits kepada masyarakat. maqasidusy syari’ah diturunkan kepada manusia untuk memberi kemudahan dalam pencapaian kebutuhan ekonomi, yang dapat dikategorikan menjadi tiga yaitu: 1. menjaga dan memelihara kepentingan primer atau dharuriyyat (basic necessities) yang biasa didefinisikan oleh para ulama dengan 5 (lima) elemen cakupan yaitu: agama, kehidupan (jiwa) akal, keturunan dan kekayaan. 2. memenuhi kebutuhan sekunder atau hajjiyyat yaitu kebutuhan-kebutuhan seperti kendaraan dan sebagainya sebagai fasilitas hidup manusia; serta, 3. mencapai kebutuhan tersier atau tahsiniyyat (kemewahan) untuk melengkapi kebutuhan manusia dalam hal memperindah kehidupan dengan sedikit kemewahan secara tidak berlebihan. qawaid fiqhiyyah sebagai landasan perilaku ekonomi (masyhudi muqorobin) 199 dengan qawa’id fiqhiyyah ini para ulama dan fuqaha dapat menyiapkan garis panduan hidup bagi ummat islam dalam lingkup yang berbeda dari waktu ke waktu dan tempat ke tempat. sebagaimana diketahui islam memberi kesempatan kepada ummatnya melalui mereka yang memiliki otoritas yaitu para ulama untuk melakukan ijtihad dengan berbagai cara yang dituntunkan oleh rasulullah, melalui ijma’, qiyas, istihsan, istishab, istislah (masalihulmursalah) dan sebagainya untuk mencari kebenaran yang tak ditemukan dalam al-qur’an maupun hadits rasulullah saw. demikian pula, dalam kehidupan ekonomi, atau yang dalam khazanah karya para fuqaha terdahulu biasa disebut muamalat, pemakaian qawa’id fiqhiyyah menjadi sesuatu yang amat penting. ratusan atau bahkan mungkin ribuan qawa’id telah dirumuskan oleh para fuqaha dari kalangan empat madzhab. ash-shiddieqie (1981) memandang qa’idah sebagai sebuah perangkat yang cukup penting sebagai panduan untuk menurunkan kaidah yang memerlukan pembuktian. para fuqaha terdahulu menyusun qawa’id dalam suatu panduan yang disebut alasybah wan-nazhaair. istilah ini dipakai pertama kali oleh khalifah umar bin khaththab ketika menunjuk abu musa al-‘asy’ari menjadi qadhi di bashra, dengan menyatakan “fahami tentang penampakan dan kemiripan suatu masalah (al-asybah wan-nazhaair), kemudian tetapkan qiyas untuk masalah yang serupa.” para fuqaha sepakat bahwa proses pemahaman dan penurunan qawa’id ini sama dengan proses yang dilakukan oleh para usuliyyun dalam menurunkan panduan hukum berupa qawa’id al-usuliyyah berdasarkan metode qiyas. terdapat sejumlah qawa’id fiqhiyyah yang dirumuskan oleh para ulama/fuqaha, sebagai bagian dari fatwa mereka, yang menyinggung persoalan perilaku ekonomi umat islam. sebagai contoh: ‘al-aadah muhakkamah atau kebiasaan dapat menjadi dasar hukum. dalam suatu masyarakat, dimana transaksi jual beli dalam skala kecil biasa dilakukan tanpa harus menyebutkan ‘aqadnya, maka apabila antara penjual dan pembeli sudah saling memahami akan terjadinya transaksi tersebut, sebagaimana kebiasaan pada masyarakat yang bersangkutan, maka proses transaksi yang memberi kemudahan tersebut dianggap sah untuk mengetahui besarnya kontribusi para fuqaha terdahulu dalam menyusun qawa’id fiqhiyyah dan juga mengetahui kontribusi dan mengukur relevansi qawa’id fiqhiyyah dalam pemikiran dan perilaku ekonomi ummat. penelitian ini berbentuk studi literatur yang berkaitan dengan topik utama yaitu qawa’id fiqhiyyah. sumber-sumber pustaka didapatkan dari sumber-sumber berikut: 1. perpustakaan universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta (umy); 2. koleksi buku-buku pribadi penulis tentang ekonomi islam; 3. perpustakaan international islamic university malaysia (iium); dan 4. sumber-sumber lain yang dirasa perlu. metode analisis dalam penelitian ini menggunakan literatur yang relevan diteliti secara langsung, baik dari karya-karya para fuqaha terdahulu dalam bentuk manuskrip, maupun karya-karya para ulama, cendekiawan atau fuqaha terkemudian dalam bentuk komentar atau hasil penelitian terhadap manusia tersebut. qawa’id tersebut selain diklasifikasikan berdasar: 1. madzhab dalam pemikiran fiqh (hanafi, maliki, syafi’ie dan hanbali); dan 2. qawa’id sebagai landasan pemikiran, gerak dan perilaku ekonomi. kendala penelitian menghendaki peneliti untuk membatasi analisiss hanya berdasarkan 99 (sembilan puluh sembilan) qawa’id yang terdapat dalam al-majallah al-ahkaam al jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 8, nomor 2, oktober 2007: 198 214 200 ‘adliyyah karya ulama dinasti turki usmani, yang dianggap cukup representative. pembahasan studi tentang qawa’id fiqhiyyah 1. pengertian dan batasan dalam dictionary of modern written arabic, karya milton cowan (ed) kata qa’idah (قاعدة) atau jama’nya qawa’id (قواعد) secara literal berarti: asas, landasan, dasar, basis atau fondasi suatu bangunan atau ajaran agama dan sebagainya. dalam pengertian yang lebih khas, qa’idah dapat juga bermakna ajaran, garis panduan, formula, pola atau metode. qa’idah memiliki makna yang sama dengan ‘asas’ atau ‘prinsip’ yang mendasari suatu bangunan, agama atau yang semisalnya (al-nadwi, 1991). dari sisi pengertian menurut ilmu fiqh, nadwi (1991) dan juga al-jurjani (djazuli, 2006) mendefinisikan qai’dah sebagai aturan umum atau universal (kuliyyah) yang dapat diterapkan untuk semua yang bersifat khusus atau bagian-bagiannya (juz’iyyah). sedang dalam pandangan para fuqaha yang lain qa’idah adalah aturan umum yang mencakup sebagian besar (aghlabiyyah) dari bagian-bagiannya (nadwi). mukhtar dkk (1995b) menyimpulkan qa’idah sebagai aturan umum yang diturunkan dari hukum-hukum furu’ yang sejenis dan jumlahnya cukup banyak. berdasarkan penelitian terhadap kitabkitab dan riwayat hidup para penyusunnya, aturan fiqih dalam bentuk qa’idah ini dapat tersusun melalui suatu proses yang panjang dan tidak terbentuk sekaligus sebagai sebuah bangunan pengetahuan (body of knowledge) tentang qa’idah sekaligus, melainkan secara bertahap (jazuli, 2006). menurut jazuli, sebelum al-karkhi dari madzhab hanafi, sebelumnya telah ada pengumpulan qa’idah, namun tampaknya tidak tersusun menjadi karya sistematis, oleh seorang ulama madzhab hanafi lainnya, yaitu abu thahir ad-dibasi hidup diakhir abad ke 3 hijriyah sampai dengan awal abad ke empat. sebanyak 17 qa’idah telah disusun oleh ad-dibasi, yang kemudian juga disampaikan kepada seorang ulama madzhab as-syafii yaitu abu sa’id al-harawi. dari sumber ad-dibasi, al-karkhi mengembangkannya lebih lanjut menjadi 36 qa’idah (an-nadwi, 1997) atau 37 qa’idah (jazuli). proses pembentukan qa’idah dilukiskan oleh jazuli yang disajikan dalam gambar 1. qawa’id disusun berdasarkan materimateri fiqh, untuk selanjutnya diverifikasi untuk mendapatkan hasil qawa’id yang lebih sempurna, untuk kemudian tersusun kembali fiqh sebagai kelengkapan dari khazanah fiqh al-qur’an al-hadits ushul fiqh fiqh qa’idah fiqhiyyah qa’idah fiqhiyyah fiqh qanun verifikasi qa’idah fiqhiyyah gambar 1. proses penyusunan qawa’id fiqhiyyah qawaid fiqhiyyah sebagai landasan perilaku ekonomi (masyhudi muqorobin) 201 yang telah ada, kemudian ketentuan-ketentuan hukumnya menjadi hasil akhir dari proses tersebut. 2. posisi qawa’id fiqhiyyah dalam syari’ah islam proses penerapan aturan syar’i dalam qa’idah menurut mahmassani (1980) sama dengan penerapan metodologi qiyas dalam memilih aturan yang tepat dalam ushul fiqh. apabila aturan rinci sebagaimana dijumpai pada alasybah wan-nazhair muncul dari kasus yang serupa, maka qa’idah dengan sendirinya dapat diterapkan. nadwi (1991) dan mahmassani berpendapat bahwa tulisan tentang qawa’id fiqhiyyah tersusun sejak mulai abad ke delapan hijriyah, melalui karya ibnul wakil as-syafi’i (716 h), tajuddin as-subki (771 h), ibnul mulaqqin (804 h), dan yang lebih monumental lagi karya jalaluddin as-suyuti (911 h). satu karya yang juga tak kalah pentingnya adalah berasal dari madzhab hanafi yaitu karya ibnu nujaim (970 h). dalam ketiga kitab al-asybah wan-nazhair karya tajuddin as-subki, jalaluddin as-suyuti maupun ibnu nujaim (970 h), pembedaan antara qa’idah umum atau asas dengan qa’idah khusus atau rinci (detail) dijelaskan secara memadai. as-subki dan as-suyuti merumuskan lima qa’idah asasiyyah yang dikenal dengan al-asasiyyatul-khamsah, yang kemudian disusun dalam al-majallah yang dikeluarkan pada jaman pemerintahan turki usmani, yaitu: a. artikel-2 al-umuur bimaqaasidihaa ( صدهااألموربمقا ) atau setiap perkara itu ditentukan berdasarkan niatnya; b. artikel -4 al-yaqiin laa yuzaalu bisysyakk (اليقين ال يزال بالشك) yaitu sesuatu yang pasti tidak dapat dihapus oleh keraguan. dalam hal lain disebutkan al-yaqiin laa yazuulu bisy-syakk ( ال يزول اليقين atau sesuatu yang pasti tidak dapat (بالشك berubah disebabkan oleh keraguan; c. artikel -17 al-musyaqqah tajlibut taysiir atau kesulitan itu (المشقة تجلب التيسير) mendatangkan kemudahan; d. artikel -21 adh-dhararu yuzaalu ( الضرر -atau kemadharatan hendaknya diha (يزال puskan; dan e. artikel -36 al-‘aadah muhakkamah ( العادة atau adat kebiasaan dapat menjadi (محكمة sumber hukum. sementara itu ibnu nujaim menambah satu lagi qa’idah asas sehingga menjadi enam, yaitu laa tsawaaba illaa bin-niyyah لنيةبا اال ثواب ال atau tidak ada pahala bagi perbuatan yang tidak disertai dengan niat, yang kemudian menjadi qa’idah asas yang berlaku di kalangan madzhab hanafi. sementara itu di kalangan madzhab maliki, qa’idah ini menjadi ‘abang dari qa’idah al-umuur bimaqaasidihaa. dalam penerapannya, jazuli mengklasifikasikan qawa’id dalam enam bidang, yaitu ibadah mahdhah (khusus), ahwal as-syahshiyyah (hal-ikhwal pribadi dan keluarga), mu’amalah (transaksi ekonomi), jinayah (kriminalitas), siyasah (politik), dan fiqh qadha (hukum acara dan peradilan). namun demikian penerapan qa’idah untuk bidang mu’amalah tidak banyak menyinggung masalah penerapan untuk perekonomian modern secara umum. di sini keberadaan qawa’id fiqhiyyah menjadi lebih jelas maknanya. 3. qawa’id fiqhiyyah dalam masalah ekonomi beberapa qa’idah fiqhiyyah memberi ruang kepada pemikiran ataupun praktek-praktek ekonomi, sebagaimana yang juga diklasifikasikan oleh jazuli (2006). dalam karyanya, al jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 8, nomor 2, oktober 2007: 198 214 202 fiqh al-islam fi tsaubihi at-tajdid, terbitan tahun 1963, muhammad mustafa az-zarqa, sebagaimana dikutip oleh jazuli (2006), menyebutkan setidaknya 25 qawa’id yang terkait dengan transaksi mu’amalah. seiring perkembangan jaman, keperluan adanya kaidah yang lebih banyak, nampaknya tidak dapat dihindarkan. sedangkan jazuli sendiri menyebutkan 20 qawa’id yang memberi ruang kepada transaksi ekonomi dan muamalah. di antara qawa’id yang paling mendasar dalam masalah ini adalah al-aslu fi almu’amalah al-ibaahah illaa an-yadull daliil ‘alaa tahriimihaa. على دليل يدل أن إال باحةالمعاملة اإل األصل فى تحريمها segala bentuk muamalah pada dasarnya adalah mubah (boleh) kecuali ada dalil yang mengharamkannya. ini menjadi alasan bagi setiap bentuk transaksi perdagangan dan ekonomi menjadi halal kecuali jelas ada alasan yang melarangnya. hanya penulis tidak menemukan qawa’id ini dalam al-majallah. 4. qawa’id dalam pemikiran empat madzhab fiqh berdasarkan sumber-sumber yang diteliti, keempat madzhab banyak memberikan kontribusi dalam pengembangan qawa’id fiqhiyyah. masing-masing madzhab memiliki setidaknya seorang termasyhur dalam pengembangan qawa’id fiqhiyyah tersebut. pemikiran keempat madzhab dalam qawa;id dipaparkan dalam keempat sub-bab di bawah ini. qawa’id dalam pemikiran madzhab hanafi berdasarkan bahan yang terkumpul dalam penelitian, terdapat enam karya dari kalangan madzhab hanafi antara lain: 1. usuul al-karkhi karya ‘ubaidullah ibn hasan al-karkhi (260-340 h). 2. ta’siis al-nadzr karya al-qadhi, ‘ubaidullah ibn ‘umar ad-dabusi (430 h) 3. al-ashbaah wa al-nazhaa’ir oleh zainuddin ibn ibrahim ibn nujaim (970 h) 4. majaami’ al-haqaa’iq yang ditulis oleh abu sa ‘id al-khadimi. ( 1176 h), 5. al-majallah al-ahkaam al-‘adliyyah oleh komite ‘ulama daulah ‘usmaniyyah (1286 h), dan 6. al-faraa’id al-bahiyyah fi al-qawaa’id alfawaa’id al-fiqhiyyah karya ibn hamzah al-husaini (1305 h). di antara keenam karya tersebut, majallah al-ahkaam al-’adliyyah merupakan satu-satunya karya yang ditulis oleh sebuah tim yaitu para ulama yang ditunjuk oleh pemerintah daulah usmaniyah di turki. majallah alahkaam al-’adliyyah terdiri dari 99 qawa’id ditambah dengan sebuah pendahuluan, yang tersusun dalam 1851 ayat. ushuul al-karkhi memuat 36 qawa’id yang menurutnya disebut qawa’id al-asl atau qawa’id asal, yang kemudian diberikan komentar atau syarah oleh najmuddin annasafi yang juga dari madzhab hanafi. sementara itu, karya ibnu nujaim, al-asybaah wan-nazhaa’ir, merupakan sebuah karya yang masyhur dari kalangan madzhab hanafi. karya ini terdiri dari 6 (enam) qawa’id dasar (qawa’id al-asasiyyah)—5 (lima) di antaranya juga dimuat dalam al-majallah al-ahkaam al’adliyyah ayat-ayat 2, 4, 17, 21 dan 36— ditambah dengan 19 (sembilan belas) qawa’id cabang atau al-furu’iyyah. karya ibnu nujaim ini juga mendapat tanggapan luas dari berbagai kalangan madzhab hanafi, dengan ditulisnya beberapa ulasan atau komentar para fuqaha terkemudian, empat di antaranya adalah: qawaid fiqhiyyah sebagai landasan perilaku ekonomi (masyhudi muqorobin) 203 1. tanwiir al-bashaa’ir ‘alal-asybaah wannazhaa’ir (1005 h) oleh ‘abdul-qadir sharif uddin al-ghazzi; 2. ghamzu ‘uyuun al-bashaa’ir syarh al-asybaah wan-nazhaa’ir (1098 h) oleh ahmad ibn muhammad al-hamawi; 3. ‘umdatu dzawil-basyaa’ir li-halli muhtamaati al-asybaah wan-nazhaa’ir (1099 h.) karya ibrahim ibn hussain, yang lebih dikenal sebagai ibnu biri al-makkati. 4. ‘umdatu an-naadzir ‘ala al-asybaah wannazhaa’ir oleh abu su ‘ud al-husaini. qawa’id dalam pemikiran madzhab maliki dari mahdzhab maliki, beberapa ulama juga menyumbangkan tulisan tentang qawa’id fiqhiyyah. karya dari kalangan madzhab maliki tidak sebanyak dari madzhab hanafi dan syafii. karya-karya tersebut antara lain adalah: 1. anwaar al-buruuq fi anwaar al-furuuq atau lebih dikenal juga sebagai: al-furuuq; kitab al-anwaar wal-anwaa’; atau kitab al-anwaar wal-qawaa’id as-sunniyyah oleh al-imam syihabudin ‘abdul-abbas ahmad as-sonhaji al-qarafi (260-340 h); 2. al-qawaa’id oleh muhammad ibn muhammad ibn ahmad al-muqarri (758 h); 3. iidhaah almasaalik ilaa qawaa’id alimaam maalik hasil karya ahmad ibn yahya ibn muhammad at-tilmisani alwinsyarinsi (914 h); 4. al-is’aaf bit-thalab mukhtasar sharh almanhaj al-muntakhab ‘alaa qawaa’id almadzhab karya as-syaikh abul-qasim ibn muhammad at-tiwani ( 995 h) karya terakhir, at-tiwani, al-is’aaf, diulas dengan sajian ringkas oleh setidaknya abulhasan ‘ali ibn qasim al-zaqqaq, al-fasi, attujibi dalam al-manhaj al-muntakhab ‘alaa qawaa’id al-madzhab (912 h), dan dikomentari oleh ahmad ibn ‘ali al-fasi al-maghribi. sementara itu madzhab syafii paling banyak memberikan kontribusi qawa’id fiqhiyyah dalam khazanah fiqh islam. pengaruhnya di indonesia juga cukup meluas, utamanya karya salah seorang faqih besar seperti jalaludin assuyuti yang menulis al-asybaah wannazhaa’ir dalam beberapa jilid. jilid 1 berisi tentang qawa’id dasar (asas) sebanyak lima buah sebagaimana yang disebutkan dalam almajallah di atas. qawa’id ini juga cukup populer, bukan saja di indonesia melainkan juga di wilayah negeri-negeri muslim lainnya, termasuk malaysia dan juga di timur tengah. di kalangan madzhab syafii, kelima qawa’id ini dianggap sebagai qawa’id yang utama. kitab 2 al-asybaah wan-nazhaa’ir berisi tentang qawa’id umum (‘amm) sebanyak 40 qawa’id, sedang 20 qawa’id lagi masuk dalam kategori diperselisihkan kedudukannya, termuat dalam jilid 3 – 7. qawa’id dalam pemikiran madzhab syafi’i secara lengkap, karya-karya tentang qawa’id fiqhiyyah di kalangan madzhab syafii berdasarkan urutan sejarahnya antara lain adalah: 1. qawaa’id al-ahkaam fi masaadir al‘anaam oleh ‘izzuddin ‘abdul ‘aziz ibn ‘abdus salam ( 577 660 h); 2. kitaab al-asybaah wan-nazhaa’ir karya sadraddin abi ‘abdullah ibn murahhil, ibn wakil al-syafi ‘i (716 h); 3. majmuu’ al-mudzhab fil-qawaa’id almadzhab oleh salahuddin abi sa ‘id al’ala’i as-syafi ‘i (761 h); 4. al-asybaah wa al-nazhaa’ir oleh ‘abdulwahhab ibn ‘ali tajuddin as-subki (771 h); jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 8, nomor 2, oktober 2007: 198 214 204 5. al-manthuur fi tartiib al-qawaa’id alfiqhiyyah aw al-qawaa’id fi al-furuu’ oleh muhammad ibn bahadur badruddin azzarkashi (794 h); 6. al-ashbaah wa al-nazhaa’ir karya sirajuddin ‘umar ibn ‘ali al-ansari, yang lebih terkenal dengan pangggilan ibnul-mulaqqin (804 h); 7. al-qawaa’id oleh taqiyyuddin abu bakr ibn muhammad ibn ‘abdul-mu’min, alhisni (829 h); 8. al-ashbaah wa al-nazhaa’ir oleh jalaluddin ‘abdur rahman ibn abi bakr ibn muhammad as-suyuthi (al-asyuthi) (804 h); dan 9. al-istighnaa’ fi al-furuuq wa al-istithnaa’ karya badruddin muhammad ibn abi bakr ibn sulaiman al-bakri di atas telah disinggung sedikit tentang karya as-suyuthi, al-asybaah wan-nazhaa’ir, yang cukup masyhur di kalangan madzhab syafi’i. selain karya as-suyuthi, kitab majmuu’ul madzhab karya al-‘alai jug amendapat perhatian para fuqaha madzhab syafii, seperti ulasan-ulasan yang diberikan dalam kitab mukhtashar al-qawaa’id al-‘alai seperti oleh: 1. al-‘allamah as-syarkhadi (792 h) yang merupakan kombinasi dengan tulisan alisnawi untuk topik yang sama; dan 2. al-‘allamah ibn khatib ad-dahsyah yang mengkombinasikan dengan kuliah-kuliah dari al-isnawi qawa’id dalam pemikiran madzhab hanbali di kalangan madzhab maliki, terdapat setidaknya lima kitab karya para fuqaha mulai dari pertengahan abad ke-7, sejak karya ibnu taymiyyah hingga abad ke-14 hijriyyah pada periode al-qari. mereka antara lain: 1. al-qawaa’id al-nuuraaniyyah al-fiqhiyyah oleh taqiyyuddin abu al-’abbas ahmad ibn ‘abd al-halim ibn taymiyyah (661 728 h); 2. al-qawaa’id al-fiqhiyyah oleh sharifuddin ahmad ibn al-hasan, ibn qadhi al-jabal almaqdisi (771 h); 3. taqriir al-qawaa’id wa tahriir alfawaa’id (al-qawaa’id) karya ‘abdurrahman shihab ibn ahmad ibn abi rajab (ibn rajab) al-hanbali (795h); 4. al-qawaa’id al-kulliyyah wa al-dhawaabit al-fiqhiyyah (771 h) karya jamaluddin yusuf ibn hasan ibn ahmad ibn ‘abdulhadi (1309-1359 h); dan 5. (qawaa’id) majallah al-ahkaam al-shar ‘iyyah ‘alaa madzhab al-imaam ahmad ibn hanbal oleh ahmad ibn ‘abdullah al-qari (1309-1359 h) secara ringkas, karya tentang qawa’id fiqhiyyah dan para penulis yang memberikan kontribusinya dapat dipaparkan dalam tabel 1. aplikasi qawa’id dalam pemikiran ekonomi analisis dalam bab ini lebih terfokus pada pembahasan qawa’id yang terkait dengan persoalan ekonomi. oleh sebab beberapa kendala, termasuk waktu dan pendanaan, penelitian dibatasi pada qawa’id yang terdapat dalam almajallah al-ahkaam al-’adliyyah terbitan daulah turki usmani yang disusun sekitar tahun 1286 h. cakupan qawa’id dalam almajallah ini dirasa cukup lengkap dan merepresentasikan hampir semua qawa’id yang pernah ditulis oleh para fuqaha/ulama dari keempat madzhab. qawaid fiqhiyyah sebagai landasan perilaku ekonomi (masyhudi muqorobin) 205 tabel 1. qawa’id dalam karya empat madzhab fiqh nama/sebutan kitab penulis periode (hijriyah) jumah qawaid 1) hanafi a) usuul al-karkhi al-karkhi 260-340 36 (asl) b) ta’siis an-nadzr abi zaid al-dabusi 430 86 c) al-asybaah wan-nazhaa’ir ibn nujaim 6 asas 19 furu’ d) majaami’ al-haqaa’iq al-khadimi 1176 154 e) majallah al-ahkaam al‘adliyyah daulah al‘usmaniyyah 1286 99 f) al-faraa’id al-bahiyyah fil-qawaa’id al-fawaa’id al-fiqhiyyah ibn hamzah al-husaini 1305 30 2) maliki a) al-furuuq; kitab al-anwaar walanwaa’; or kitab al-anwaar walqawaa’id as-sunniyyah syihabuddin al-qarafi 260-340 548 b) al-qawaa’id al-muqarri 758 100 c) iidhaah almasaalik ilaa qawaa’id alimaam maalik ahmad al-winsyarinsi 914 118 d) al-is’aaf bit-talab mukhtasar syarhulmanhaj al-muntakhab ‘alaa qawaa’id al-madzhab at-tiwani 912 3) syafii a) qawaa’id al-ahkaam fi masaadir al‘anaam ‘izzuddin ‘abd as-salam 577-660 b) kitaab al-asybaah wan-nazhaa’ir ibn wakil as-syafii 716 c) majmuu’ al-mudzhab fi al-qawaa’id al-madzhab salahuddiin al-’ala’i 761 20 d) al-asybaah wan-nazhaa’ir tajuddin as-subki 771 60 e) al-mantsuur fi tartiib al-qawaa’id alfiqhiyyah awil-qawaa’id fil-furuu’ badruddin az-zarkashi 794 100 f) al-asybaah wan-nazhaa’ir ibn al-mulaqqin 804 g) al-qawaa’id ‘abd al-mu’min, al-hisni 829 h) al-asybaah wan-nazhaa’ir as-suyuthi 804 5 asas 40 ‘amm 20 ikhtilafi i) al-istighnaa’ fil-furuuq wal-istitsnaa’ badruddin al-bakri 600 4) hanbali a) al-qawaa’id al-nuuraaniyyah alfiqhiyyah ibn taymiyyah 661-728 b) al-qawaa’id al-fiqhiyyah syarifudin al-maqdisi 771 c) taqriir al-qawaa’id wa tahriir alfawaa’id (al-qawaa’id) ibn rajab al-hanbali 795 160 d) al-qawaa’id al-kulliyyah wa aldhawaabit al-fiqhiyyah ibn ‘abd al-hadi 1309-1359 e) (qawaa’id) majallah al-ahkaam alshar ‘iyyah ‘alaa madzhab al-imaam ahmad ibn hanbal ahmad ‘abdullah al-qari 1309-1359 160 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 8, nomor 2, oktober 2007: 198 214 206 sekalipun tidak dapat dipungkiri, bahwa almajallah merupakan karya kumpulan qawa’id yang dihasilkan oleh para ulama madzhab hanafi. sebagai konsekuensinya, banyak qawa’id yang tidak dapat diakomodasi dalam penelitian ini, baik dari kalangan madzhab hanafi sendiri maupun yang lainnya. qawa’id dalam pemikiran ekonomi dalam aspek transaksi mu’amalah, terdapat sekitar 25 qawa’id menurut syeh muhammad mustafa zarqa, sebagaimana dikutip oleh jazuli (2006). namun apabila diperluas cakupannya ke dalam ekonomi secara keseluruhan, maka jumlah qawa’id yang dapat diaplikasikan akan menjadi lebih banyak. dari 99 qawa’id dalam al-majallah, lebih dari 70 qawa’id dapat diinterpretasikan secara langsung sebagai memiliki implikasi yang bersifat ekonomis, sekalipun tidak dapat lepas dari perspektif yang lain, seperti sosial, politik, hukum, dan sebagainya. ini sesuai dengan pengertian atau definisinya, sebagaimana telah didiskusikan di atas, yaitu qa’idah berfungsi sebagai aturan umum atau universal (kuliyyah) yang dapat diterapkan untuk semua yang bersifat khusus atau bagian-bagiannya (juz’iyyah). atau dengan kata lain, sebagaimana kesimpulan mukhtar dkk (1995b) qa’idah sebagai aturan umum yang diturunkan dari hukum-hukum furu’ yang sejenis dan jumlahnya cukup banyak. apabila diperbandingkan dengan tulisan jazuli (2006), maka hasil penelitian ini memberi gambaran bahwa jumlah qawa’id yang terkait dengan masalah ekonom ijauh lebih banyak, dari pada jumlah yang terkait dengan transaksi muamalah sebagaimana ditulis karya jazuli. akan tetapi perlu dicatat pula bahwa dari 20 qawa’id yang ditulisnya, hanya ada 8 (delapan) qawa’id yang sama, sedangkan selebihnya didapatkan dari karya-karya ulama lainnya. kedelapan qawa’id tersebut dipaparkan dalam tabel 2. tabel 2. qawa’id dalam pemikiran ekonomi/muamalat dalam al-majallah dan dalam karya jazuli (2006) 1 apabila sesuatu itu batal maka batallah apa yang ada di dalammnya إذا بطل الشيء بطل ما فى ضمنه 2 tidaklah sempurna ‘aqad tabarru’ (pemberian) kecuali setelah diserahkan, (sebelum diminta sudah diberi) ال يتم التبرع إال بقبض 3 hak mendapat hasil itu sebagai ganti kerugian (yang ditanggung) الخراج بالضمان 4 pendapatan/upah dengan jaminan itu tidak datang secara bersamaan األجر والضمان ال يجتمعان 5 risiko itu sejalan dengan keuntungan الغرم بالغنم 6 hal yang dibolehkan syariat tidak dapat dijadikan beban/tanggungan الجواز الشرعي ينافي الضمان 7 perintah menasarufkan (memanfaatkan) barang orang lain (tanpa ijin pemiliknya) adalah batal األمر بالتصرف فى ملك الغير باطل 8 tidak boleh bagi seorang pun merubah /mengganti milik orang lain tampa izin pemiliknya. ال يجوز ألحد أن يتصرف فى ملك الغير بال إذنه qawaid fiqhiyyah sebagai landasan perilaku ekonomi (masyhudi muqorobin) 207 ini memberitahukan kepada kita betapa jumlah qawa’id yang disusun para ulama/ fuqaha terdahulu jumlahnya cukup banyak dan susah ditentukan secara pasti. pada sisi lain, ia juga memberi gambaran betapa keseriusan mereka benar-benar luar biasa, sehingga generasi terkemudian dapat memanfaatkannya dengan lebih mudah. kesimpulan qawa’id fiqhiyyah merupakan landasan umum dalam pemikiran dan perilaku sosial memberikan panduan bagi masyarakat untuk melakukan interaksi dengan sesamanya. panduan yang diberikan menyangkut beberapa aspek kehidupan seperti hukum, ekonomi, sosial, politik dan kenegaraan, budaya, dan sebagainya sampai pada masalah pernikahan. penelitian ini memfokuskan pada qawa’id dalam karya-karya para ulama/fuqaha dari kalangan empat madzhab fiqh, dan implikasinya dalam pemikiran dan perilaku ekonomi dalam masyarakat. dalam hal ini, pemahaman terhadap qawa’id fiqhiyyah adalah mutlak diperlukan untuk melakukan suatu “ijtihad” atau pembaharuan pemikiran. para ulama dan fuqaha terdahulu, sejak akhir abad ke-2 hijriyyah telah merintis batu peletakan qawa’id melalui karyakarya agung mereka, yang sampai kini masih terlihat manfaatnya untuk diimplementasikan dalam kehidupan modern, termasuk ekonomi. para ulama/fuqaha dari keempat madzhab fiqh tersebut menyusun qawa’id dalam jumlah yang begitu banyak, sebagiannya sama atau serupa, sehingga susah untuk diketahui jumlahnya secara pasti. fokus penelitian ini pada 99 (sembilan puluh sembilan) qawa’id yang disusun para ulama pada dinasti turki usmani, yaitu almajallah al-ahkaam al-’adliyyah pada sekitar awal abad ke-13 hijriyah atau tepatnya sekitar tahun 1286 h. dari keseluruhannya, terdapat lebih dari 70 (tujuh puluh) qawa’id yang dapat dijadikan rujukan untuk diturunkan ke dalam pemikiran dan perilaku ekonomi modern. namun dikarenakan keterbatasan waktu dan finansial, penelitian ini tidak dapat meneruskan pada masalah implikasi pemikiran dan perilaku ekonomi secara sektoral. selain itu, kebanyakan materi qawa’id juga berlaku sangat umum, sehingga hampir dapat diberlakukan secara keseluruhan bagi semua sektor dalam ekonomi. akan tetapi, apabila dilacak karya-karya di luar al-majallah, ada kemungkinan beberapa qawa’id yang dapat diinterpretasikan secara khas untuk setiap masalah atau sektor dalam ekonomi. untuk itulah penelitian secara lebih detail untuk setiap aspek perlu dilakukan secara terpisah. persantunan penulis mengucapkan terima kasih kepada prof. dr. ismail mat dari university brunei darussalam atas komentar yang diberikan pada draft terdahulu; dan kepada sdr.samsul bahri atas bantuan editorialnya sampai naskah ini diterbitkan. daftar pustaka alwani, taha jabir al-. 1994. source methodology in islamic jurispruden’e: usul alfiqh al-islami, revised english ed. by yusuf talal delorenzo and anas s. alshaikh-ali. herndon. virginia: international institute of islami’ thought. 1415. djazuli, h.a. 2006. kaidah-kaidah fikih: kaidah-kaidah hukum islam dalam menyelesaikan masalah-masalah praktis. jakarta: kencana prenada media group kamali, muhammad, hashim. 1989. principles of islamic jurisprudence. petaling jaya. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 8, nomor 2, oktober 2007: 198 214 208 malaysia: pelanduk publication (m) sdn bhd. mahmassani, sobhi. 1980. falsafah al-tashri’ fi al-islam. english translation by farhat j. ziadeh, the original arabic. beirut. dar al-’ilm li al-malayin. shah alam, malaysia: penerbitan hizbi. mu’htar, kamal, dkk. 1995. ushul fikh (jilid 1). yogyakarta: dana bakti wakaf. nadwi, ali, ahmad, al-. 1412h/1991. alqawa’id al-fiqhiyyah: mafhumuha, nashatuha, tatawwuruha, dirasatu muallafatiha, adallatuha, muhimmatuha, tatbiqatuha. dar al-qalam.. damascus rahman, fazlur. 1965. islamic methodology in history. karachi. pakistan: islamic research institute. shiddieqy, t.m. hasbi, ash-. 1981. pengantar hukum islam. jakarta: penerbit bulan bintang. syabir, muhammad, usman. 2000. al-qawa’id al-kulliyyah wad-dhawabith alfiqhiyyah. yordania: daarul-furqaan. weeramantry, c.g. islamic jurisprudence: an international perspective, hampshire and london: the macmillan press ltd. qawaid fiqhiyyah sebagai landasan perilaku ekonomi (masyhudi muqorobin) 209 lampiran qawa’id fiqhiyyah dalam al-majallah al-ahkaam al-‘adliyyah a rt ik el n o. 1 artikel.1…para peneliti dari ahli fiqh mengembalikan persoalan-persoalan fiqh kepada kaidah-kaidah umum, semuanya itu otentik untuk seluruh permasalahanpermasalahan yang ada,…maka dari itu disusun 99 kaidah fiqhiyyah…, dan di antara kaidah-kaidah ini, jika dilihat secara mufrad (tersendiri), terdapat pengecualian tertentu di antara kesempurnaannya, akan tetapi tidak menutupi keumumannya dari sisi keseluruhan, karena itu sebagiannya mengikat sebagian yang lain. keterangan: 1. sesuatu yang menyeluruh maka dikecualikan 2. sesuatu yang umum maka dikhususkan 3. sesuatu yang banyak maka ditentukan satu (diikat) إن المحققين من الفقهاء قد .... -1 المادة أرجعوا المسائل الفقهية إلى قواعد آليه، . ... آل منها ضابط وجامع لمسائل آثيرة قاعدة )99(تسع وتسعون فلذا جمع وأن بعض هذه القواعد، وان . ... فقهية آانت بحيث إذا انفرد، يوجد من مشتمال ها ته بعض المستثنيات، لكن ال تختل آليت و عمومتها من حيث المجموع، لما إن .بعضها يخصص ويقيد بعضا آخر 2 setiap perkara (perbuatan) itu tergantung pada tujuannya. األمور بمقاصدها 3 patokan dalam akad (ibrah) diambil dari maksud/ tujuan dan maknanya bukan dari ungkapan dan bentuknya العقود للمقاصد والمعاني ال العبرة فى لأللفاظ والمباني 4 sesuatu yang sudah diyakini tidak dapat dihapus oleh keragu-raguan اليقين ال يزال بالشك )اليقين ال يزول بالشك( 5 yang menjadi patokan adalah tetapnya sesuatu menurut keadaan semula اناألصل بقاء ما آان على ما آ 6 sesuatu yang lama akan ditinggalkan sebagaimana asalnya القديم يترك على قدمه 7 kemadharatan tidak akan terjadi sejak awal الضرر ال يكون قديما 8 bebas dari tanggungan adalah prinsip yang mendasar. األصل براءة الذمة 9 asal dari sifat-sifat yang nyata (terlihat) adalah ketiadaan األصل فى الصفات العارضة العدم 10 sesuatu yang tetap pada zamannya akan dinilai kekal kecuali terdapat dalil yang membuktikan penolakannya. وما ثبت بزمان محكم ببقائه مالم يوجد دليل على خالفه 11 asal suatu perubahan peristiwa baru dianggap sebagai peristiwa yang berlangsung dalam waktu terdekat (dari sekarang) األصل إضافة الحادث إلى أقرب أوقاته 12 asal dalam perkataan itu adalah hakikat. (artinya jika ada perkataan yang bisa diartikan secara hakiki dan majasi, maka perkataan mesti diartikan secara hakiki) األصل فى الكالم الحقيقة 13 tidak perlu ambil perhatian terhadap dalil apabila ada pernyataan yang jelas ال عبرة للداللة في مقابلة التصريخ jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 8, nomor 2, oktober 2007: 198 214 210 14 tidak ada tempat untuk berijtihad jika ada nasth yang menerangkannya (al-qur’an dan al-hadits) المساغ لالجتهاد فى مورد النص 15 sesuatu yang tetap atas penolakan terhadap qiyas maka tidak (boleh dipakai) untuk menetapkan qiyas yang lain. ما ثبت على خالف القياس فغيره ال يقاس عليه 16 sebuah ijtihad tidak dapat membatalkan yang semisalnya (ijtihad yang lain) االجتهاد ال ينقض بمثله 17 kesulitan itu akan menarik kemudahan المشقة تجلب التيسير 18 perkara yang berlaku dalam kesempitan, harus diberikan kelonggaran atasnya األمر إذا ضاق إتسع (إذا ضاق األمر إتسع) 19 madharat tidak bisa diselesaikan dengan kemadharatan juga ال ضرر وال ضرار 20 kemadharatan itu harus dihilangkan. الضرر يزال 21 keadaan darurat membolehkan sesuatu yang dilarang الضرورات تبيح المحظورات 22 sesuatu yang dibolehkan karena darurat itu mesti disesuaikan dengan kadar kedaruratannya. الضرورات تقدر بقدرها 23 sesuatu yang dibolehkan karena uzur, maka batallah sebab hilangnya uzur tersebut ما جاز لعذر بطل بزواله 24 apa bila hilang penyebab yang melarang sesuatu maka yang dilarang itu boleh dilakukan ممنوعإذا زال المانع عاد ال 25 kemadharatan tidak boleh dihilangkan dengan kemadharatan yang semisal الضرر ال يزال بمثله 26 menanggung suatu kemadharatan khusus untuk menolak kemadharatan umum. يحتمل الضرر الخاص لمنع الضرر العام 27 kemadharatan yang lebih besar/ berat dihilangkan dengan kemadharatan yang lebih ringan الضرر األشد يزال بالضرر األخف 28 apabila dua kerusakan bertabrakan maka dilihat/ dipilih yang lebih ringan إذا تعارض مفسدتان روعي أعظمهما ضررا بارتكاب أخفهما 29 memilih yang lebih kecil dari dua keburukan ار أهون الشرينيخت 30 menolak suatu kerusakan didahulukan dari pada menarik kemaslahatan. درء المفاسد أولى من جلب المنافع 31 kemadharatan itu sedapat mungkin harus ditangkis الضرر يدفع بقدر اإلمكان 32 kebutuhan bisa menjadi sesuatu kepentingan منزلة الضرورةالحاجة تنزل 33 sesungguhnya sesuatu yang tidak bisa ditawar-tawar lagi tidak membatalkan hak bagi yang lain إن اإلضطرار ال يبطل حق الغير qawaid fiqhiyyah sebagai landasan perilaku ekonomi (masyhudi muqorobin) 211 34 sesuatu yang diharamkan mengambilnya maka diharamkan juga memberikannya ما حرم أخذه حرم اعطاؤه 35 sesuatu yang haram mengerjakannya maka haram juga meminta mengerjakannya ما حرم فعله حرم طلبه 36 adat kebiasaan dapat dijadikan hukum العادة محكمة 37 jika manusia sudah sepakat dengan sesuatu (kesepakatan umum) maka wajib dikerjakan استعمال الناس حجة يجب العمل بها 38 larangan adat adalah menjadi larangan sebenarnya (secara hakikat) الممتنع عادة آالممتنع حقيقة 39 tidak dipungkri perubahan hukum dengan adanya perubahan zaman ال ينكر تغير األحكام بتغير األزمان 40 suatu kenyataan akan ditinggalkan berdasarkan adat حقيقة تترك بداللة العادةال 41 hanya akan dianggap sebagai suatu adat jika apa bila menjadi suatu mayoritas dalam masyarakat إنما تعتبر العادة إذا اضطردت أو غلبت 42 perhatian lebih diberikan pada kejadian yang sering (mayoritas), bukannya yang jarang (minoritas) العبرة للغالب الشائع ال للنادر 43 sesuatu yang dikenal akan menjadi adat seperti yang disyaratkan menjadi syarat المعروف عرفا آالمشروط شرطا 44 sesuatu yang dikenal diantara masyarakat itu seperti menjadi syarat dikalangan mereka آالمشروط بينهمالمعروف بين التجار 45 penetapan secara adat seperti penetapan secara nash (teks) التعيين بالعرف آالتعيين بالنص 46 apa bila bercampur suatu larangan dengan perintah maka didahulukan larangan إذا تعارض المانع والمقتضى يقدم المانع 47 sesuatu yang terkait dengan sebuah obyek, maka ia diakui keabsahannya التابع تابع 48 sesuatu yang terkait dengan sebuah obyek tidak dihukumi secara terpisah. التابع اليفرد بالحكم 49 seseorang yang memiliki sesuatu maka ia juga memiliki segala kepentingan atasnya ا هو من ضروراتهمن ملك شيئا ملك م 50 apabila terputus sesuatu yang dasar maka terputus pula suatu cabangnya إذا سقط األصل سقط الفرع 51 sesuatu yang terputus itu tidak akan kembali seperti sesuatu yang hilang tidak kembali الساقط ال يعود آما أن المعدوم ال يعود 52 apabila sesuatu itu batal maka batallah apa yang ada didalammnya إذا بطل الشيء بطل ما فى ضمنه 53 apa bila batal suatu yang dasar /asal maka ia merubah menjadi perubahan,maka asal itu menjadi berubah إذا بطل األصل يصار الى البدل jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 8, nomor 2, oktober 2007: 198 214 212 54 tidak diperbolehkannya sesuatu yang terkait dengan barang tidak berarti dilarangnya yang lain yang terkait dengan barang tersebut يغتفر التوابع ماال يغتفر فى غيرها 55 sesuatu yang dilarang dengan cara yang baru, mungkin diperbolehkan dengan cara melanjutkan. تفر فى االبتداءيغتفر فى البقاء ما ال يغ 56 meneruskan sesuatu lebih mudah dari pada memulainya البقاء أسهل من االبتداء 57 tidaklah sempurna ‘aqad tabarru’ (pemberian) kecuali diberikan/diserahkan, (sebelum diminta sudah diberi) ال يتم التبرع إال بقبض 58 tasharruf (tindakan –pemimpin-) terhadap rakyat harus dihubungkan dengan kemashlahatan -kepentingan umum-. التصرف على الرعية منوط بالمصلحة 59 kewenangan khusus (pribadi) lebih kuat dari pada kewenangan umum (publik) الوالية الخاصة أقوى من الوالية العامة 60 mengamalkan maksud suatu kalimat, lebih utama dari pada mengabaikannya (menyia-nyiakannya) إعمال الكالم أولى من إهماله 61 apabila maksud hakiki tidak dapat ditangkap, maka pengertian majazi (metaforis) dapat dipakai إذا تعذرت الحقيقة يصار إلى المجاز 62 apabila perkataan itu lemah dalam pelaksanaan maka abaikan saja إذا تعذر إعمال الكالم يهمل 63 hubungan terhadap bagian-bagian yang takterpisahkan dinilai seperti hubungan terhadap keseluruhan ذآر بعض ماال يتجزأ آذآر آله 64 sesuatu yang mutlaq berjalan dengan kemutlakannya selama tidak ada nash atau dalil yang mengikatnya المطلق يجري على إطالقه ما لم يقم دليل التقييد نصا أو دالله 65 sifat yang tampak tidak memiliki nilai kebenaran, maka sifat yang tidak tampak dapat dipakai الوصف فى الحاضر لغو وفى الغائب معتبر 66 pertanyaan itu diulangi di dalam jawaban السؤال معاد فى الجواب 67 perkataan tidak dapat dinisbatkan kepada orang yang diam, tetapi diam adalah sama dengan pernyataan, ketika bicara diperlukan. (artinya orang yang diam ketika berbicara itu menjadi keharusan, maka ia dianggap membuat pernyataan (menyetujui/menolak). ال ينسب إلى ساآت قول، لكن السكوت فى معرض الحاجة بيان 68 bukti atas sesuatu yang tidak jelas dikembalikan pada kedudukannya دليل الشيئ فى األمور الباطنة يقوم مقامه 69 tulisan seseorang itu seperti halnya perkataan الكتاب آالخطاب 70 isyarat yang dikenal karena kebisuan seperti suatu keterangan dengan lisan اإلشارات المعهودة لألخرس آالبيان باللسان 71 kata terjemahan diterima secara mutlaq. يقبل قول المترجم مطلقا qawaid fiqhiyyah sebagai landasan perilaku ekonomi (masyhudi muqorobin) 213 72 tidak dipegangi sesuatu (hukum) yang berdasarkan pada dhon -persangkaan yang kuatyang jelas salahnya. ال عبرة للظن البين خطؤه 73 tidak dijadikan hujjah sesuatu yang berdasarkan kemungkinan yang berlawanan dengan dalil ال حجة مع االحتمال الناشئ عن دليل 74 tidak bisa dijadikan patokan sesuatu yang bimbang/ was-was ال عبرة للتوهم 75 keputusan dengan bukti yang otentik seperti kepastian melihat dengan mata kepala sendiri الثابت بالبرهان آالثابت بالعيان 76 bukti dituntut atas orang yang menggugat/menuduh, sedangkan sumpah atas yang menolak/ mengingkarinya البينة على المدعي واليمين على من أنكر 77 bukti adalah untuk memastikan sesuatu yang berlawanan secara lahiriyah, sedang sumpah untuk memastikan sesuatu yang asal البينة إلثبات خالف الظاهر واليمين إلبقاء األصل 78 bukti adalah kepastian mutlak (bagi fihak ketiga), sedang ikrar (pengakuan) hanyalah bukti relatif bagi yang menyatakannya. البينة حجة متعدية واإلقرار حجة قاصرة 79 seseorang itu terikat oleh pengakuannya المرء مؤاخذ بإقراره 80 sesuatu yang diperdebatkan tidak bisa dijadikan hujjah, tetapi jga tidak dapat menafikan keputusan hakim ال حجة مع التناقض والآن ال يختل معه حكم الحاآم 81 sesungguhnya ditetapkannya cabang itu tidak berarti dengan meniadakan yang asal/pokok قد ثبت الفرع مع عدم ثبوت األصل 82 fihak yang dibebani oleh syarat wajib memenuhinya ketika syarat disebutkan. المعلق بالشرط يجب ثبوته عند ثبوت الشرط 83 lazimnya pemenuhan syarat itu sesuai kemampuan yang memungkinkan يلزم مراعة الشرط بقدر اإلمكان 84 janji yang diiringi persyaratan adalah lazim لتعاليق تكون المواعيد باآتساء صور ا الزمة 85 hak mendapat hasil itu sebagai ganti kerugian (yang ditanggung) الخراج بالضمان 86 pendapatan/upah dengan jaminan itu tidak datang secara bersamaan األجر والضمان ال يجتمعان 87 risiko itu sejalan dengan keuntungan (yakni orang yang memperoleh manfaat atas sesuatu, pada saat yang sama ia harus mau berkorban). يعني إن من ينال نفع ( -الغرم بالغنم )شيئ يحتمل ضرره 88 kenikmatan itu setaraf dengan pengorbanan dan pengorbanan setaraf dengan kenikmatan مةالنعمة بقدر النقمة والنقمة بقدر النع jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 8, nomor 2, oktober 2007: 198 214 214 89 perbuatan itu disandarkan pada pelakunya kecuali pada suatu kasus yang belum terjabarkan يضاف الفعل الى الفاعل ال اآلمر مالم يكن مجبرا 90 apabila terdapat dua orang terlibat suatu perkara, yang seorang terlibat langsung dan yang lain hanya terlibat sebab-sebab, maka hukum dibebankan pada orang yang terlibat secara langsung saja إذا اجتمع المباشر والمتسبب يضاف الحكم الى المباشر 91 hal yang dibolehkan syariat tidak dapat dijadikan beban/tanggungan الجواز الشرعي ينافي الضمان 92 orang yang berbuat sesuatu, meskipun tanpa sengaja, tetap harus menanggung beban المباشر ضامن وان لم يتعمد 93 tidak dikenai beban orang yang terlibat dalam sebab suatu kejadian kecuali dengan sengaja ia hendak melakukannya اال بالتعمدءالمتسبب ال يضمن 94 tidak ada beban yang terkait dengan kecelakaan disebabkan oleh binatang atas kemauanya sendiri. جناية العجماء جبار 95 perintah menasarufkan (memanfaatkan) barang orang lain (tanpa ijin pemiliknya) adalah batal األمر بالتصرف فى ملك الغير باطل 96 tidak boleh bagi seorang pun merubah /mengganti milik orang lain tampa izin pemiliknya. ال يجوز ألحد أن يتصرف فى ملك الغير بال إذنه 97 tidak boleh bagi seseorang mengambil milik orang lain tanpa sebab syar’i ال يجوز ألحد أن يأخذ مال أحد بال سبب شرعي 98 perubahan sebab kepemilikan barang adalah setara dengan perubahan pada barang itu sendiri تبدل سبب الملك قائم مقام تبدل الذات 99 barang siapa yang mendahulukan sesuatu sebelum waktunya, maka ia dibebani atas larangan yang ada didalamnya من استعجل الشيئ قبل أوانه عوقب بحرمانه 100 barang siapa berusaha menyanggah perbuatannya sendiri, maka usahanya itu tertolak من سعى فى نقض ما تم من جهته، فسعيه مردود عليه image (478).jpg image (479).jpg image (480).jpg image (481).jpg image (482).jpg image (483).jpg image (484).jpg image (485).jpg image (486).jpg image (487).jpg image (488).jpg image (489).jpg image (490).jpg jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 23 no 1, april 2022 article type: research paper the impact of economic growth and trade openness on environmental degradation: evidence from a panel of asean countries indanazulfa qurrota a'yun* and uswatun khasanah abstract: global warming and climate change show a decrease in environmental quality. the main cause of global warming is the emission of carbon dioxide (co2). this study aims to analyze the effect of economic growth and economic openness on environmental quality in asean countries from 2010 to 2019. this research uses a panel data analysis method. the analysis results show that the variable economic growth has a negative and significant effect on carbon dioxide emissions. meanwhile, the variables used for economic openness are exports, imports, and fdi. export and fdi variables have a positive and significant effect on co2 emissions, but there is no effect on imports. this study also used population variables as control variables and the result is there is no effect on co2. based on the results, it is necessary to have a carbon emission reduction policy for asean countries using environmentally friendly technology. keywords: co2 emissions; economic growth; environmental quality; trade openness jel classification: f18; f64; o44; p18; q56 introduction the quality of the environment is deteriorating due to climate change and global warming. changes in environmental quality have become a global issue in the last few decades. according to ghosh (2010), the main cause of global warming is the emission of carbon dioxide (co2). global warming is caused by rapid economic growth. it increases industrial growth, which impacts air pollution and affects the decline in environmental quality (candra, 2018). the environmental protection agency (2020) explained that co2 contributes greatly to global warming. it contributes 56%, while nh4 and n2o only contribute 18% and 6%. the amount of co2 in the atmosphere is the effect of greenhouse gases, resulting in global warming. greenhouse gases have a global warming potential (gwp) whose measurement is relatively between co2 gas and a value of 1. the large gwp value indicates that it is increasingly destructive (sugiyono, 1997). the intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) explained that southeast asia is predicted to have serious climate change because most of its economic growth still relies on natural resources and the agricultural sector. kolstad and krautkraemer (1993) also stated that economic growth can cause negative impacts on the environment in the long term. affiliation: department of economics, faculty of economics and business, universitas ahmad dahlan, special region of yogyakarta, indonesia *correspondence: indanazulfa1495@gmail.com this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v23i1.13881 citation: a’yun, i. z., & khasanah, u. (2022). the impact of economic growth and trade openness on environmental degradation: evidence from a panel of asean countries. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 23(1), 81-92. article history received: 03 feb 2022 revised: 29 mar 2022 12 apr 2022 accepted: 13 apr 2022 https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=tu9jelyaaaaj&hl=en https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?user=6vh7sdoaaaaj&hl=en https://ep.uad.ac.id/ https://ep.uad.ac.id/ https://ep.uad.ac.id/ https://ep.uad.ac.id/ mailto:indanazulfa1495@gmail.com http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/13881 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v23i1.13881&domain=pdf a’yun & khasanah the impact of economic growth and trade openness on environmental degradation: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 82 it is further clarified by kuznets's theory, which explains a positive relationship between economic growth and environmental quality (panayotou, 2003; hamori & kume, 2018; nguyen & darsono, 2022). therefore, according to todaro et al. (2009), the development does not only focus on the economic sector but also on environmental quality. in addition, rapid population growth will lead to increased demand for food, energy, water, and other resources. it can lead to pressure and excessive exploitation of the environment. bran and popa (2009) explained that the relationship will become more complex because of the dependence of the population on natural resources. this condition will have the potential to worsen environmental damage and potentially cause natural disasters. at the beginning of the 20th century, the world population fluctuated by about 6 billion. 80% are from developing countries and the majority are from asean countries. indonesia has the largest population among asean countries (nazeer & furuoka, 2017). this study hypothesizes that there is a significant effect between economic growth, economic openness, population, and energy consumption on carbon dioxide (co2) emissions in 10 asean countries. only a few studies discuss economic activity and environmental quality. meanwhile, the relationship between economic growth and environmental quality is closely related, which is explained through kuznets's theory. in addition, the asean energy center also estimates that greenhouse gases in the asean countries will increase by 34-147% between 2017 and 2040 (asccr, 2021). the impacts of climate change will inevitably increase due to the accumulation of global emissions in the atmosphere over time (asccr, 2021). kuznets (1955) explains the damaged environment experienced in developing countries. most of them are countries with low per capita income. this happens because industrialization growth is still in its early phase, which is still focused on economic development and employment. meanwhile, environmental issues have not received special attention. thus, in this phase, there is a positive correlation on economic growth with changes in environmental quality. however, when the economic goals have been achieved which means that per capita income has increased, the level of awareness of environmental quality begins to develop (spilker, koubi, & bernauer, 2017). ehrlich and holdren (1972) in their theory of impacts of population, affluence and technology (ipat) explain that income and population are the main factors that can affect the environment. it will decrease along with the development of technology. the research that uses panel data conducted by halkos (2011) explains the influence between economic development and the level of pollution (co2 emissions). he stated that a policy could overcome this problem. horii and ikefuji (2014) explain that only the scale of production can be achieved in an expanding economy. there are three negative impacts, namely local and global pollution and environmental degradation. in addition, research related to economic openness is found in jugurnath and emrith (2018), which stated that foreign direct investment (fdi), population, dummy crisis, and technology positively and significantly impact environmental degradation. meanwhile, fdi and trade have a significant negative effect on environmental degradation. a’yun & khasanah the impact of economic growth and trade openness on environmental degradation: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 83 the novelty of this study is that it specifically discusses carbon dioxide (co2). there have been limited studies regarding carbon dioxide (co2). other studies discuss the environmental quality index which does not discuss further details. this study also focuses on using independent variables in the form of economic and economic growth. moreover, this study uses the most recent data from 10 asean countries. this research introduces the idea that high economic growth, international trade activities, population levels, and energy consumption will increase the value of carbon dioxide emissions, which impact global warming and a decrease in environmental quality. therefore, the purpose of this study is to analyze the influence of economic growth and openness on co2 emissions. research method this study used a quantitative method approach that aimed to analyze the changes of environmental quality caused by economic growth and trade openness. the data used was annual data from 2010 to 2019 in 10 asean member countries (indonesia, thailand, myanmar, vietnam, malaysia, myanmar, singapore, cambodia, laos, and the philippines) obtained from world bank data sources. the variables that were used in this empirical research are shown in table 1. table 1 variable identity variable definition sources co2 emissions co2 emissions (metric tons per capita) world bank (2021) economic growth total gdp per capita (constant) in millions of us dollars world bank (2021) population total population in 10 asean countries world bank (2021) trade openness total exports and imports of goods and services in 10 asean countries world bank (2021) foreign direct investment net foreign investment rate world bank (2021) the data analysis method used was quantitative analysis using panel data regression. this research used panel data regression to determine the differences between individuals or in each asean country. panel data can be used to avoid the limited number of observations because a large number of observations will increase the degree of freedom. in addition, this estimation can reduce the existence of collinearity between independent variables (gujarati, 2012). the advantage of using panel data estimation is suitable for describing the dynamics of change. panel data can detect and measure the impact and minimize the bias that might result in the regression (baltagi, 2005).the general equation for panel data is as follows: 𝑌𝑖𝑡 = 𝛽𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽𝑖𝑡 𝑋𝑖𝑡 + 𝜀𝑖𝑡 (1) in this equation, y is the dependent variable, 𝛽 is the regression parameter, x is the independent variable and ε is the stochastic disturbance variable. meanwhile, i and t show the observation and time. in this study, the model used as an approach to analyze the a’yun & khasanah the impact of economic growth and trade openness on environmental degradation: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 84 relationship between economic growth and trade openness with co2 emissions is as follows: 𝐶𝑂2𝑖𝑡 = 𝑎𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽1𝐺𝑟𝑜𝑤𝑡ℎ𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽2𝑃𝑂𝑃𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽3𝑁𝑃𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽4𝐹𝐷𝐼𝑖𝑡 + 𝜀𝑖𝑡 (2) where co2 is the co2 emissions or carbon dioxide produced, growth is economic growth, pop is the total population, np is the trade balance, fdi is foreign investment. the trade balance and fdi are indicators used as an indicator of the openness of the economy. meanwhile, 𝜀𝑖𝑡 is the coefficient of confounding. the estimation of this research panel data used several stages of testing which were the selection of the best model and the classical assumption test. in selecting the best model, there are three stages of testing, namely chow test, hausman test, and lm test. the three models that will be regressed are the common effect, fixed effect, and random effect models. furthermore, in the classical assumption test, it is necessary to carry out three stages of testing, namely heteroscedasticity test, autocorrelation test, and multicollinearity test. the three tests must be met so that the data used can be tested for validity. result and discussion this study used a quantitative method approach that aimed to analyze the environmental kuznets curve hypothesis and analyze changes in environmental quality caused by economic growth and openness. the data used were 10 asean countries (indonesia, thailand, myanmar, vietnam, malaysia, myanmar, singapore, cambodia, laos, and the philippines) from 2010 to 2019. the data used started from 2010 aimed to examine the relationship between growth and economic openness to environmental quality in the last ten years. in general, this empirical research used secondary data taken from the world bank in 2021. this study used co2 emission variables, economic growth, population, trade openness, and foreign direct investment. table 2 descriptive statistics co2 lgdp lpop limport lexport fdi mean 0.586145 2.520011 62886087 1.470011 1.610011 -6.220009 median 0.498823 2.050011 41275308 1.210011 1.110011 -2.090009 maximum 1.668606 1.200012 2.710008 5.870011 6.910011 9.910009 minimum 0.135738 7.130009 388634.0 3.520009 2.520009 -6.990010 std. dev 0.351386 2.820011 73697451 1.520011 1.760011 1.190010 skewness 1.276024 1.684638 1.684060 1.108904 1.301752 -2.903089 kurtosis 4.154009 5.539986 5.086143 3.734152 4.222439 14.08515 jarque-bera 32.68619 74.18145 65.40095 22.74023 34.46913 652.4678 probability 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000012 0.000000 0.000000 sum 58.61451 2.520013 6.290009 1.610013 1.470013 -6.220011 sum sq. dev. 12.22377 7.870024 5.380017 3.080024 2.280024 1.400022 observations 100 100 100 100 100 100 a’yun & khasanah the impact of economic growth and trade openness on environmental degradation: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 85 table 2 shows the descriptive statistics for all of the variables used in the study.the observations made in this study were 100. the average of co2 is 0.58, and the maximum and the minimum value of co2 are 1.66 and 0.13. while the average of lgdp is 2.52, the maximum value is 1.20 and the minimum value is 7.13. then for lpop variable, the mean value is 628, the maximum and the minimum value are 412 and 2.71. variable of limport has a similar average with the variable of lexport, it is 1.47 and 1.61. the maximum and the minimum of limport are 5.87 and 3.52. in contrast, the maximum and the minimum of lexport are 6.91 and 2.52. furthermore, the fdi variable has an average value of 6.22, the maximum value is 9.91 and the minimum value is -6.99. the data analysis was carried out using the panel data regression method which is a combination of cross section and time series for the level of asean countries. in panel data regression, the best model used in this study is the fixed effect model. it is based on the best model selection test using the chow test and hausman test. chow test was used to determine the best model between the common effect model (cem) and fixed effect model (fem). meanwhile, the hausman test was used to determine the best model between the fixed effect model and the random effect model (rem) by considering the probability of cross-section value (susanti & nidar, 2016). in panel data, the classical assumption test is optional. some researchers ignore classical assumptions. according to gujarati (2012), panel data has complexity regarding the behavior that is in the model. therefore, panel data does not require classical assumption tests. thus, the superiority of panel data regression implies that there is no need for classical assumption tests (verbeek, 2000; gujarati, 2012). table 3 shows the results of testing panel data consisting of the common effect model, fixed effect, and random effect model. table 3 panel data model estimation results variable probability common effect fixed effect random effect c 0.0156 -1.995007 -2.670087 lgdp 0.0000*** -0.386154 -0.341169 lpop 0.0020*** 0.113513 0.061382* lexport 0.4886 0.371680 0.394691 limport 0.5079 0.050738** 0.044890** fdi 0.0072*** 1.21e-12 2.61e-12 r-squared 0.300920 0.962263 0.138494 adjusted r-squared 0.267310 0.956702 0.097076 f-statistic 8.953394 173.0319 3.343777 prob(f-statistic) 0.000000 0.000000 0.007680 note: *p<0.1. **p<0.05, ***p<0.01 a’yun & khasanah the impact of economic growth and trade openness on environmental degradation: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 86 based on the estimation results, the best model is selected. the results of the chow test are shown in table 4. table 4 chow test result effects test statistic d.f. prob. cross-section f 169.659308 (9,95) 0.0000 table 4 shows the probability value of the cross-section f < (0.05) which means that the fixed effect model (fem) is the best model compared to the common effect model (cem) in analyzing the environmental quality of 10 asean countries. the next test is the hausman test, which selects the best model between the fixed effect model (fem) and the random effect model (rem). the results of the hausman test show that the probability value of chi-square < (0.05). the more appropriate model to use is the fixed effect model (fem) (see table5). table 5 hausman test result test summary chi-sq. statistic chi-sq. d.f. prob. cross-section random 21.226750 5 0.0007 the results of the two best model tests show that the fixed effect model is the best model to be used in this study. therefore, the lm test does not need to be continued. the estimation results from the fixed effect model are are shown in table 6. table 6 fixed effect model estimation results variable coefficient std. error t-statistic prob. c -1.995007 2.762051 -0.722292 0.4719 lgdp -0.386154 0.105087 -3.674599 0.0004*** lpop 0.113513 0.227642 0.498647 0.6192 lexport 0.371680 0.068025 5.463848 0.0000*** limport 0.050738 0.040829 1.242684 0.2170 fdi 1.21e-12 6.27e-13 1.935037 0.0560** effect specification r-squared 0.962263 adjusted rsquared 0.956702 s.e. of regression 0.108484 f-statistic 173.0319 prob(f-statistic) 0.000000 based on table 6, the statistical tests were carried out which included individual parameter significance tests (t statistical tests), joint significance tests (f statistical tests) and r2 determinant coefficient tests. the t-statistic test aims to examine the influence of each independent variable individually in explaining the variation of the dependent variable. the estimation results show that the lgdp variable has a t-count of -3.674599 and a probability value of 0.0004, the lpop variable of 0.498647 and the probability value of 0.6192, the lexport variable of 5.463848 and the probability value of 0.0000. while the a’yun & khasanah the impact of economic growth and trade openness on environmental degradation: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 87 limport and fdi variables have t-counts of 1.242684 and 1.935037 and probability values of 0.2170 and 0.0560. furthermore, the f test determines the independent variables on the dependent variable as a whole. the probability value of the f-statistic is 0.000000 which means it is smaller than the alpha value of 0.05. these results conclude that the independent variables lgdp, lpop, lexport, limport, and fdi affect the independent variable of environmental quality in 10 asean countries. furthermore, the estimation results show an r2 value of 0.962263 or 96.22% which means that the lgdp, lpop, lexport, limport, and fdi variables can explain the environmental quality variable in 10 asean countries by 96.22%. the remaining 3.78% can be explained by the variables outside the research variables. based on the results of panel data regression using the fixed-effect model, the following equation can be obtained: 𝐶𝑂2𝑖𝑡 = − 1.995007 − 0.386 𝐿𝐺𝐷𝑃𝑖𝑡 + 0.113 𝐿𝑃𝑂𝑃𝑖𝑡 + 0.371 𝐿𝐸𝑋𝑃𝑂𝑅𝑇𝑖𝑡 + 0.050 𝐿𝐼𝑀𝑃𝑂𝑅𝑇𝑖𝑡 + 1.210 𝐹𝐷𝐼𝑖𝑡 + 𝑢𝑖𝑡 (3) according to the equation, the constant coefficient is -1.995007, meaning that other systematic variables also affect the quality of the environment in 10 asean countries but are not included in the study. furthermore, lgdp has a coefficient of -0.386. increasing 1 percent economic growth will reduce co2 by 0.386 percent in the 10 asean countries. the results of the panel data output show that the probability value of lgdp is 0.0004. it is smaller than the alpha value of 0.05, so that lgdp has a negative and significant effect on co2 emissions. the next variable is lpop which has a coefficient of 0.113. it indicates that the increase of 1 percent, will increase co2 by 0.113 percent. however, the estimation result of lpop has a probability value of 0.6192. it is greater than the alpha value of 0.05, so that lpop has a positive and insignificant effect on co2 emissions in 10 asean countries. this also occurs in the limport variable which has a coefficient value of 0.050 with a probability value of 0.2170. it indicates that limport has a positive and insignificant effect on co2. furthermore, the lexport variable has a coefficient value of 0.371. the increase of 1 percent exports will increase co2 emissions by 0.371 percent. this is further supported by the probability value of 0.0000 (alpha value <0.05). it indicates that lexport has a positive and significant effect on co2 in 10 asean countries. furthermore, the fdi variable has a coefficient value of 1.210 and a probability of 0.056. it indicates that fdi has a positive and significant effect on co2 and the increase of 1 percent fdi will increase co2 emissions by 1.210 percent. based on the estimation results of the fixed-effect model, the lgdp, lpop, lexport, limport and fdi variables have a significant effect on co2 emissions in 10 asean countries. however, partially not all of the independent variables affect co2 emissions in the 10 asean countries. a’yun & khasanah the impact of economic growth and trade openness on environmental degradation: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 88 lgdp or economic growth has a negative and significant impact on co2 emissions in the 10 asean countries. when a country’s economy grows, it will reduce the level of co2 emissions. this means that when co2 emissions decrease, the quality of the environment in that country increases. this is in accordance with the environmental kuznets curve (ekc) theory which explains that the higher the economic growth of a country, the lower the level of environmental damage in the long term.indonesia is one of the asean countries where they have a program as its determination to control greenhouse gases as stated in the ndc document in law number 16 of 2016. indonesia has a target of reducing gas emissions by 29% on its own and then by 41% with international assistance. the higher the level of economic growth of a country, the higher the level of awareness in each country of its concern for the environment, especially co2 emissions. this study is in line with that conducted by arouri, hossain, and badrul muttakin (2014), ali, soemarno, and purnomo (2015), ibrahiem (2016), and nikensari, destilawati, and nurjanah (2019). meanwhile, the population in this study had a positive and insignificant effect. as the population increases, it will not affect co2 emissions. population growth causes energy demand which will increase co2 gas emissions (li & liu, 2014). according to mahmood (2012), population density has a positive impact on co2 emissions. the population density is the factor that influences environmental degradation. a large population with relatively high population growth will cause an increase in the need for natural resources as inputs for goods and services (ilham, 2021). however, in this study, population growth had no significant effect. although the high population can increase the demand for fuel energy such as industrial generation, electric power, and transportation, the population is responsible for the environmental degradation. for example, along with the development of the times in the industrial structure, the population switched to using heavy equipment towards service-based industries and the use of advanced technology that could lead to a reduction in co2 emissions (banerjee & rahman, 2012). in addition, the population living in urban areas has a higher level of awareness of the importance of maintaining environmental quality. currently, there is control of energy consumption, especially in the transportation sector which can reduce the level of co2 emissions (chandran govindaraju & tang, 2013). this is in contrast with the research conducted by zhao et al. (2013) that population density has a negative effect on carbon dioxide. similarly, research conducted by ong and sek (2013) shows that residents in lowand middle-income countries have a negative influence on co2 emissions. wafiq and suryanto (2021) also proposed that the population density has a significant negative impact on the environmental quality. furthermore, the export growth rate has a positive and significant impact on co2 emissions in the 10 asean countries. this shows that the higher the level of international trade activity, the higher the co2 emissions produced. the increasing demand for exports means an increase in the productivity of a country which requires more energy consumption. not only the need for more energy consumption, but the need for natural resources has also become more intensive to produce residues and waste that have an impact on environmental degradation (hossain & rao, 2014). according to ong and sek (2013), human activities and industrialization will increase co2 emissions that affect global warming. this is in contrast with the import activities where in this study it was found that the activities had no effect on co2 emissions. this is because import activities a’yun & khasanah the impact of economic growth and trade openness on environmental degradation: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 89 do not require high productivity which produces a lot of waste. on the other hand, import activities have a significant impact on marine pollution, specifically in the sea transportation sector. almost 95% of goods transportation for export and import uses sea transportation (statistics indonesia, 2016). however, the members of the international maritime organization (imo) have agreed on a strategy to reduce greenhouse gases in shipping. this will tackle and reduce marine pollution. there are various factors in this study which are estimated to cause an increase in co2 emissions, namely foreign direct investment (fdi) or foreign investment. the estimation results show that fdi has a positive and significant effect on co2 emissions in 10 asean countries. the increase in fdi will reduce the quality of the environment. these results are in accordance with the research conducted by shahbaz, nasreen, abbas, and anis (2015) that high levels of fdi will cause more energy consumption to be used by a country, especially in the industrial sector where energy consumption has a significant effect on environmental quality. conclusion this study aims to analyze the effect of economic growth and trade openness on the quality of the environment in asean countries. this research introduces the idea that high economic growth, international trade activities, population levels, and energy consumption increase carbon dioxide emissions which have an impact on global warming and decrease the environmental quality. the data used is annual data from 2010-2020 in asean countries (indonesia, thailand, myanmar, vietnam, malaysia, myanmar, singapore, cambodia, laos, and the philippines) and used panel data regression model estimation. this study uses gdp as a proxy for economic growth. the result is a significant negative effect and this is in accordance with the existing theory. the proxy of trade openness in this study uses export, import, and fdi variables. the results show that exports and fdi have a positive and significant effect on co2 emissions, while there is no effect on imports. furthermore, this study also uses population variables as control variables and the results show that there is no effect on environmental quality. the results of this study provide the variables used contribute to co2 emissions in 10 asean countries. the government in each country is advised to take advantage of its economic growth to make an effort to enhance environmental quality. for example, by providing funds to research technologies that can reduce co2 emissions or improve environmental quality and provide special policies for using environmentally friendly products. the government is also advised to control export and import activities to provide solutions to the environmental quality problems. therefore, export activities can run optimally but still maintain environmental quality. it is hoped that further research can be carried out by considering the addition of countries and periods or with other methods to perfect the research. a’yun & khasanah the impact of economic growth and trade openness on environmental degradation: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 90 references ali, a., soemarno, s., & purnomo, m., (2015). kajian kualitas air dan status mutu air sungai metro di kecamatan sukun kota malang. jurnal bumi lestari, 13(2), 265-274. retrieved from https://ojs.unud.ac.id/index.php/blje/article/view/6643 arouri, h., hossain, m., & badrul muttakin, m. 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(2021). the impact of population density and economic growth on environmental quality: study in indonesia. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 22(2), 301–312. https://doi.org/10.18196/jesp.v22i2.10533 world bank. (2021). world bank open data. retrieved from https://data.worldbank.org/ zhao, s., liu, s., sohl, t., young, c., & werner, j. (2013). land use and carbon dynamics in the southeastern united states from 1992 to 2050. environmental research letters, 8(4), 044022. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044022 https://doi.org/10.18196/jesp.v22i2.10533 https://data.worldbank.org/ https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044022 convert jpg to pdf online convert-jpg-to-pdf.net image (478).jpg image (479).jpg image (480).jpg image (481).jpg image (482).jpg image (483).jpg image (484).jpg image (485).jpg image (486).jpg image (487).jpg image (488).jpg image (489).jpg image (490).jpg image (491).jpg jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 23 no 1, april 2022 article type: research paper the analysis of inclusive green growth in indonesia jaka aminata, dzulfikar ilham kusuma nusantara*, and indah susilowati abstract: the concept of economic growth that has increased social welfare needs to be expanded in terms of its meaning and benchmarks. it focuses not only on economic activities but also on how they impact all of society in the present and the future. this study aims to analyze indonesia’s inclusive green growth in 2015 and 2019. the method used to obtain the analysis is the inclusive green growth index (iggi), conducted by asian development bank (adb). iggi is a composite index consisting of three pillars: economic growth, social equity, and environmental sustainability. the study showed that indonesia’s inclusive green growth was getting better where its average score in 2015 was 3.21, increasing to 3.36 in 2019. however, the improvement is not ideal yet because its mainly influenced by the economic growth pillar. in contrast, the average score of the environmental sustainability pillar declined from 4.19 in 2015 to 4.00 in 2019, accompanied by the decreasing social equity pillar score in 15 out of 34 provinces. all efforts to achieve a better-balanced iggi are improving and maintaining environmental quality, improving access to economic and political activities, improving public service and infrastructure in various provinces, and increasing superior and potential sectors to pursue economic disparity inter-provincial. keywords: inclusive growth; green growth; composite index jel classification: d63; e66; i31; 010 introduction economic growth is one of the macro indicators that are very influential for improving social welfare. according to palmer (2012), economic growth is critical to society because it is reflected in increasing goods and services products that can enhance social living standards. this statement is in line with yasa and arka's (2015) statement, which states that economic growth is a phenomenon that aims to increase national income, which will improve social welfare in general. therefore, every single government must strive for positive and stable economic growth. one of the countries with positive and steady economic growth was indonesia, as shown in figure 1. based on figure 1, indonesia's economic growth has always been positive and very stable, above 5%. it has always been in the top five of the highest economic growth members of the group of twenty (g20), even though this growth condition has not reached the planned growth target as written in affiliation: department of economics, faculty of economics and business, universitas diponegoro, central java, indonesia *correspondence: dzulfikarilham@gmail.com this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v23i1.13811 citation: aminata, j., nusantara, d. i. k., & susilowati, i. (2022). the analysis of inclusive green growth in indonesia. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 23(1), 140-156. article history received: 28 jan 2022 revised: 21 mar 2022 28 mar 2022 accepted: 14 apr 2022 https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?user=qxvoht0aaaaj&hl=en https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?user=izm2_egaaaaj&hl=en https://ie.feb.undip.ac.id/ https://ie.feb.undip.ac.id/ https://ie.feb.undip.ac.id/ https://ie.feb.undip.ac.id/ mailto:dzulfikarilham@gmail.com http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/13811 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v23i1.13811&domain=pdf aminata, nusantara, & susilowati the analysis of inclusive green growth in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 141 figure 1 top five of the highest economic growth by g-20 member in 2011-2019 source: world bank the law of state budget. unfortunately, with positive and stable economic growth, that growth is indicated to have not had a positive impact on the people who live in the present and the future. indications showing the unequal and comprehensive effects of economic growth can be seen from the increasing gini index from 0.36 in 2010 to 0.38 in 2021, as published by central bureau statistics, jakarta, indonesia. inequality is also shown from the results of the pisa's survey, which shows that the segregation rate of indonesia's education based on the socio-economic status of students is still low, and the survey results show a deterioration in the segregation rate from 45% to 39% from 2015 to 2018 (suprayitno, 2019). improving education equality is vital as one of the efforts to enhance human capital that can play a role in the convergence of economic conditions in indonesia (anwar, 2018). all indications of economic growth impact that has not been spread widely and equally are also shown by several studies that have been carried out. warsito (2020) says that the williamson index of indonesia was increasing from 0.72 in 2011 to 0.76 in 2019. another indication was also presented by ilham and pangaribowo (2017), who stated that indonesia’s entropy theil index confirmed the existence of high inequality between provinces in indonesia. indications also showed by international publications from credit suisse (2021) that show inequality in indonesia, where 10% of the wealthiest people in indonesia control at least 75% of the total adult wealth. based on this, the previous economic growth is indicated to have not yet provided an equitable positive impact for everyone or is not yet inclusive. this argument aligns with klasen's view quoted in kusumaningrum and yuhan's (2019) research, which states that growth can be categorised as inclusive growth only if the process involves everyone and its results can be felt as a whole without inequality. the impact of economic growth also needs to be measured for society in the future. as reported in the brundtland report, economic growth will place an excessive burden on earth in the future (visser & brundtland, 2013; hamori & kume, 2018; hajian & kashani, 2021). meadows et al. convey a similar view that the current pattern of natural resource -4,00 -2,00 0,00 2,00 4,00 6,00 8,00 10,00 12,00 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 turkey saudi arabia china indonesia argentina india korea, rep. united states aminata, nusantara, & susilowati the analysis of inclusive green growth in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 142 consumption to enhance economic growth will drain out the natural resources available, and its impact will stop economic growth globally (herrington, 2021). it is essential to measure the economic impact on the environment, considering that the environment has provided various resources that can support the production of goods and services for multiple needs of living things (harris & roach, 2017; tseng et al, 2019). one way to measure and evaluate the impact of economic growth on society in the future is to internalise the concept of green growth. the idea of "green growth" is appropriate because it refers to increasing economic activity while maintaining the efficiency of natural resource consumption and minimising the harmful effects of economic activity on the environment (world bank, 2012). figure 2 carbon dioxide and gross domestic product of indonesia from 1960-2019 source: world bank based on figure 2, carbon dioxide (co2) emissions are increasing, aligning with an increase in gdp per capita. the condition indicates that indonesia’s economic activity is causing an increase in co2 emissions. this condition often happens, especially in developing countries like indonesia, which use large amounts of energy to boost the economy (adebayo, 2020). farabi et al. (2019) and pandit and paudel (2016) mention another proof that increasing per capita income will raise per capita carbon emissions in indonesia. putriani et al. (2018) and ilham (2021) also show that indonesia’s economic growth and development will harm environmental quality due to the increase of industrial areas and transportation. rajagukguk (2015) states that the relationship between economic growth and the environment in indonesia is still on the left side of the environmental kuznets curve (ekc). considered by the superb condition of indonesia’s growth as shown in figure 1, it will become a significant loss if there is no measurement of its impact on society that lives in the present and the future. the urgency of its measure also arises because the world has agreed on sustainable development goals (sdgs) from 2015 to 2030. the sdgs have 17 goals such as eradicating poverty, reducing inequality, protecting the environment, and maintaining the availability of natural resources so that world development will be sustained and grow as a whole, not just in economic activity but also in social equity and environmental sustainability (united nations development program, 2017). 0 0,5 1 1,5 2 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 gdp per capita (usd) co2 emissions (metric ton per capita) aminata, nusantara, & susilowati the analysis of inclusive green growth in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 143 green and inclusive economic growth is an important issue. it has been the subject of the rio+ 20 conference, and several world institutions tried to outline the definition and measurement of this concept. world bank (2012) states that inclusive green growth is economies that grow efficiently in natural resource consumption, minimize pollution by better environmental management, and be inclusive. united nations environment programme (2011) defines an inclusive green economy as an effort to improve welfare, justice, social equality, and environmental quality simultaneously. the organization for economic co-operation and development (2012) states that inclusive green growth is economic growth that maintains the quality of the environment and ensures natural resources availability. to succeed in inclusive green growth measurement, the green growth knowledge platform (ggkp) states five central themes in measuring inclusive green growth, namely (i) the availability of natural resource assets, (ii) environmental productivity, environmental intensity, and natural resources intensity, (iii) environmental quality, (iv) economic policies and opportunities, and (v) socio-economic conditions of the society (ggkp, 2013). many studies have tried and formulated to measure inclusive green growth and determine its forming indicators. ggkp (2016) use natural assets, resource efficiency and decoupling, risk and resilience, economic opportunities and efforts, and inclusiveness as the forming indicators. wef (2017) uses gdp per capita, employment rate, labor productivity, health-life expectancy, median household income, poverty rate, income gini, wealth gini, adjusted net savings, dependency ratio, public debt, and carbon intensity of gdp. furthermore, research from the united nations economic and social commission for asia and the pacific or un escap (2014) uses equitable distribution and access, structural transformation, eco-efficiency, investment in natural capital, and planetary limits as the forming indicators in calculating inclusive green growth. sun et al. (2020) use a directional distance function and an output-oriented-slack-based measure to calculate inclusive green growth conditions in china's cities, with input and output variables used, namely labor, capital, energy, gdp as desirable output, wastewater, and also emissions as undesirable outputs. some of these studies have various shortcomings because the indicators used are not comprehensive in accommodating important indicators to describe inclusive green growth (jha et al., 2018). several previous studies are used as references to strengthen this research. research conducted by jha et al. (2018) succeeded in producing an inclusive green growth index (iggi) method piloted in asia and asia-pacific countries with 2015, 2010, and 2015 as the time research. research conducted by liderson and pasaribu (2020), which adopted the iggi method to all provinces of indonesia in 2017, showed that the condition of inclusive green growth in every region of indonesia was at the middle level. li et al. (2021), who also adopted the iggi method and factor analysis, shows that economic development is the main factor in deciding inclusive green growth. so it is necessary to accelerate economic development, institutional improvement, and improve relations between countries in the asia-pacific region. šneiderienė et al. (2020) show that achieving inclusive green growth in europe varies widely, with romania as the lowest and luxembourg as the highest scores. due to the lack of research with comprehensive methods, this research also refers to sitorus and arsani (2018), which focuses on describing inclusive growth in aminata, nusantara, & susilowati the analysis of inclusive green growth in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 144 every province of indonesia using various techniques and comparing all methods. sitorus and arsani's (2018) results show that the condition of indonesia’s inclusive growth is at a satisfactory level, although there are still gaps in several indicators. seeing the lack of research that accommodates the three pillars and representative indicators of inclusive green growth for 34 provinces in indonesia, research that focuses on examining the conditions of inclusive green growth in all areas is needed. previous research has shown the condition of inclusive green growth at countries level, but the study that discusses the same topic at the regional level periodically to capture its progress and using representative indicators is not that much, especially in indonesia. therefore, this study aims to periodically measure inclusive green growth in indonesia’s provinces in 2015 and 2019 using the iggi method. the expected result of this study is to provide a complete description of inclusive green growth in every region of indonesia and provide policy advice on indicators that need to be improved to achieve inclusive green growth. research method the data used for all research indicators are 2015 and 2019, obtained from various official websites. however, the data compose the inverse indicator of coefficient variation in grdp growth per capita using five-year data, consisting of 2011 to 2015 and 2015 to 2019. the type of data used is panel data, with the research object being 34 provinces in indonesia. the indicator data used in this study consists of 3 pillars and 26 indicators. these indicators refer to jha et al. (2018) and liderson and pasaribu (2020). the operational definition and measurement units can be seen in table 1. table 1 data and definition used in the analysis no. indicators operational definition measurement unit source economic growth pillar 1 grdp per capita growth rate change in grdp per capita between two different timeframes percent bps 2 trade openness the dependence of an economy on national and global economic conditions percent bps 3 age dependency ratio comparison of the population at nonproductive age to the people at productive age index bps 4 rrb for economy government spending on increasing economic growth billion rupiah djpk 5 rrb for social protection government spending on protecting vulnerable groups billion rupiah djpk 6 rrb for environment governments spending on maintaining environment billion rupiah djpk 7 primary sector of grdp regional income sourced from the primary sector billion rupiah bps 8 secondary sector of grdp regional income sourced from the secondary sector billion rupiah bps aminata, nusantara, & susilowati the analysis of inclusive green growth in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 145 table 1 data and definition used in the analysis (cont’) no. indicators operational definition measurement unit source 9 tertiary sector of grdp regional income sourced from the tertiary sector billion rupiah bps 10 the inverse of coefficient variation of grdp per capita growth describing the stable condition of per capita grdp growth percent bps social equity pillar 11 gini coefficient the level of income inequality index bps 12 gender empowerment index (idg) role of women in economic and political activities index bps 13 access to electricity households that able to use electricity in an area percent bps 14 poverty rate population below the poverty line compared to the total population percent bps 15 access to sanitation households that have access to proper sanitation percent bps 16 access to drinking water population access to quality water sources percent bps 17 average length school length of time taken by residents in participating in formal education year bps 18 expected age life at birth estimated reachable age calculated from a person was born year bps 19 net enrollment rate (ner) the proportion of the population in a particular age group who attends a certain level of education percent bps 20 the ratio of the working and workingage population the proportion of the working-age population to the labour force percent bps 21 gender gap in ner gaps of formal education access by gender ratio bps 22 gender gap in labour force participation rate (lfpr) the gap in the labour force participation by gender ratio bps 23 gender gap in life expectancy gender gaps related to health problems ratio bps environmental pillar 24 water quality index (wqi) condition of water in an area at a particular time index klhk 25 air quality index (aqi) level of air in an area at a certain period index klhk 26 land cover quality index (lcqi) area of forest cover and swamp scrub index klhk notes: bps (central bureau statistics of indonesia), djpk (directorate general of fiscal balance, ministry of finance), klhk (ministry of environment and forestry) the analytical method used in this study uses the iggi method conducted by jha et al. (2018), which consists of several stages, namely as follows: aminata, nusantara, & susilowati the analysis of inclusive green growth in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 146 data normalization the normalization stage is required to change and equalize the data measurement unit so the data can be compared. the result of normalization data will be a value range from 1 to 6, with score one being the worst and score six being the best. normalization carried out in this paper using the min-max normalization method is as follows: indicators with a positive impact on iggi: z = 5 x x – min(x) [ max(x)min(x)] +1 (1) indicators with a negative impact on iggi: z = -5 x x-min(x) [ max(x)min(x)] +6 (2) where: z is the result of normalization, x is the value of an indicator, max (x) is the highest value of an indicator, dan min (x) is the lowest value of an indicator. iggi calculations the iggi calculation begins by adding up all the values of indicators that have been normalized on the same pillar. after that, find the average of each pillar and combine it with the calculation of the other pillars. the measures are as follows: iggi = 1 3 (epa)+ 1 3 (sipa)+ 1 3 (erpa) (3) where: iggi is inclusive green growth index, epa is economic pillar average, sepa is social equity pillar average, dan espa is environmental sustainability pillar average. pillar gap this stage is necessary considering the goal of iggi is to obtain a balanced result between the pillars, not only high in the economic growth pillar but also needing to be accompanied by a high score on social equity and environmental sustainability pillar. the calculations at this stage are as follows: total gap = [epa-sipa]+[sipa-erpa]+[erpa-epa] (4) where: epa is economic pillar average, sepa is social equity pillar average, dan espa is environmental sustainability pillar average. aminata, nusantara, & susilowati the analysis of inclusive green growth in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 147 balanced iggi the last step in the iggi calculation is to enter the total gap into the iggi calculation as one of the pillars. before being included in the final calculation, the total gap needs to be normalized with the following formula: cpb = -5 x total gapmin(tg) max(tg)min(tg) + 6 (5) where: cpb is cross pillar balance, max (tg) is the highest value of total gap, min (tg) is the lowest value of total gap. after obtaining the cpb value, its value is entered into the iggi calculation as a balancing pillar. the calculation of balanced iggi is as follows: balanced iggi = 3 4 (iggi)+ 1 4 (cpb) (6) result and discussion table 2 shows the results of the descriptive statistics of all the indicators used in the study. it can be seen that the data of economic growth and environmental sustainability indicators are distributed widely, as evidenced by the wide range between the minimum and maximum values. meanwhile, the social equity pillar data is distributed more equally than the other pillar. table 2 descriptive statistics indicators n minimum maximum mean std. deviation g.grdp per capita 68 -17.16 20.20 3.53 3.95 trade openness 68 20.10 310.63 98.61 48.46 dependencyratio 68 39.49 66.74 50.41 5.68 rrbeconomic 68 1.61e+11 5.20e+12 6.72e+11 8.33e+11 rrbsocial 68 2.05e+10 1.46e+12 1.09e+11 2.00e+11 rrbenvironment 68 2.30e+09 5.05e+12 1.44e+11 6.48e+11 primarygrdp 68 4225.54 267158.45 60611.33 66505.74 secondarygrdp 68 2461.00 774525.75 101679.41 171189.78 tertiarygdrp 68 10054.92 1388568.94 138205.08 262400.53 invcv 68 -0.37 70.29 13.34 14.33 gini 68 0.26 0.43 0.35 0.04 idg 68 48.19 83.20 68.05 6.76 electricityaccess 68 39.16 100.00 91.73 11.40 poverty 68 2.61 26.55 8.99 4.93 sanitationaccess 68 8.68 91.19 55.20 18.70 drinkwateraccess 68 31.02 99.82 71.76 17.19 als 68 5.99 11.06 8.28 0.97 exp.agelife 68 64.22 74.92 69.61 2.60 nerelem.sch 68 78.56 99.53 96.48 3.56 aminata, nusantara, & susilowati the analysis of inclusive green growth in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 148 table 2 descriptive statistics (cont’) indicators n minimum maximum mean std. deviation nerjunior.sch 68 54.21 86.75 76.46 6.32 nersenior.sch 68 43.22 73.01 61.33 6.13 worktoworkage 68 55.08 76.40 63.73 4.37 gen.gap.ner.es 68 0.97 1.04 1.00 0.01 gen.gap.ner.js 68 0.85 1.10 0.97 0.05 gen.gap.ner.ss 68 0.79 1.22 0.95 0.08 gen.gap.life.exp 68 0.94 0.95 0.95 0.00 gen.gap.labor 68 0.46 0.80 0.62 0.08 wqi 68 21.84 88.33 58.79 15.84 aqi 68 50.65 96.94 86.85 8.00 lcqi 68 24.66 100.00 59.88 16.14 valid n (listwise) 68 indonesia balanced iggi table 3 shows the average of every pillar score and the balanced iggi achieved by every province. the average of balanced iggi is improving; in 2015, the average score obtained was 3.21, which increased to 3.36 in 2019. this improvement is positive because there is progress even though it is not ideal yet. this improvement cannot be said as a perfect improvement because the environmental sustainability pillar is decreasing in 24 provinces, and the social equity pillar is also reducing in almost 50% of areas in indonesia. therefore, it is essential to pay attention to the improvement in the three pillars because the primary purpose of inclusive green growth is to create good economic growth, improve social inclusiveness conditions, and maintain environmental sustainability simultaneously. in 2015, the top three provinces with the highest balanced iggi scores were east java, central java, and west java. these three received the highest scores due to their high scores in every pillar. meanwhile, west papua, west sulawesi, and maluku are the three provinces with the lowest scores. these three provinces received low scores due to the high cross-pillar balance score, which was due to the high value of the environmental pillar but the low score on the economic pillar, thereby reducing the balanced iggi. in 2019, the provinces with the highest balanced iggi scores were east java, central java, and east kalimantan. east kalimantan is becoming one of the provinces with the best balanced iggi score due to their improvement on economic growth and social equality pillars. the provinces with the lowest balanced iggi score in 2019 were papua, west papua, and dki jakarta. dki jakarta has fallen to one of the provinces with the lowest score due to their achievement on the environmental sustainability pillar. this is important to be noticed by the dki jakarta province, considering that its economic growth pillars are the highest, but its environmental sustainability pillar is the worst. aminata, nusantara, & susilowati the analysis of inclusive green growth in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 149 table 3 scores of economic growth, social equity, environmental sustainability pillars, and balanced iggi in 2015 and 2019 province 2015 2019 epa sipa erpa balanced iggi iggi rank epa sipa erpa balanced iggi iggi rank aceh 1.82 3.43 4.82 3.05 22 2.15 3.53 4.85 3.21 23 north sumatera 2.12 3.76 4.31 3.37 8 2.50 3.87 3.60 3.74 4 west sumatera 2.05 3.46 3.47 3.34 9 2.25 3.45 4.20 3.43 16 riau 2.02 3.53 2.65 3.11 21 2.33 3.73 3.85 3.66 6 jambi 1.88 3.39 3.62 3.20 16 2.32 3.55 4.18 3.52 14 south sumatera 1.92 3.52 4.18 3.20 15 2.28 3.59 4.00 3.54 11 bengkulu 1.77 3.13 5.00 2.93 27 2.29 3.37 3.89 3.53 12 lampung 1.98 3.25 3.69 3.21 14 2.37 3.55 3.47 3.70 5 bangka belitung islands 1.72 4.03 4.53 3.17 20 2.01 3.61 4.58 3.20 24 riau islands 2.24 3.89 4.61 3.44 6 2.38 3.81 4.14 3.64 7 dki jakarta 4.36 4.54 2.03 3.44 7 4.67 4.45 1.32 2.86 32 west java 3.10 3.36 3.66 3.92 3 3.20 3.69 2.27 3.52 13 central java 3.13 3.97 3.53 3.95 2 3.09 3.98 3.45 4.13 2 di yogyakarta 2.23 4.47 2.78 3.17 19 2.21 4.56 2.29 3.02 27 east java 3.52 3.71 3.77 4.25 1 4.24 3.82 3.30 4.31 1 banten 2.17 3.40 2.72 3.22 12 2.46 3.61 2.15 3.27 20 bali 2.19 4.71 4.71 3.61 4 2.25 4.56 4.25 3.55 10 west nusa tenggara 1.96 3.22 3.49 3.22 13 1.91 3.23 3.41 3.32 18 east nusa tenggara 1.58 2.91 3.75 2.89 31 1.80 2.88 4.35 2.91 30 west kalimantan 1.72 3.37 4.91 2.97 26 2.05 3.26 3.92 3.31 19 central kalimantan 1.94 3.67 4.76 3.19 17 2.23 3.65 4.54 3.38 17 south kalimantan 1.87 3.60 3.31 3.17 18 2.20 3.52 3.81 3.51 15 east kalimantan 2.40 4.04 5.43 3.49 5 2.83 4.18 5.13 3.81 3 north kalimantan 1.61 3.96 5.43 3.00 24 2.06 3.88 4.89 3.22 22 north sulawesi 1.99 3.70 4.12 3.30 10 2.18 3.86 3.84 3.57 9 central sulawesi 1.93 3.14 4.95 3.03 23 2.25 3.30 5.26 3.13 26 south sulawesi 2.01 3.43 4.00 3.25 11 2.42 3.62 4.27 3.59 8 southeast sulawesi 1.45 3.78 4.78 2.92 28 1.97 3.69 4.27 3.27 21 gorontalo 1.73 2.96 4.58 2.91 29 2.12 2.98 4.50 3.14 25 west sulawesi 1.52 2.82 4.30 2.77 33 1.88 2.70 4.45 2.90 31 maluku 1.44 3.54 4.87 2.85 32 1.80 3.46 4.86 2.93 29 north maluku 1.64 3.61 5.00 2.97 25 1.87 3.56 4.84 3.01 28 west papua 1.70 2.77 5.49 2.75 34 1.92 2.80 5.17 2.78 33 papua 1.96 2.66 5.31 2.90 30 1.74 2.05 4.83 2.54 34 economic growth pillar the economic growth pillar has increased from 2.08 in 2015 to 2.36 in 2019, as shown in table 1. figure 3 shows that dki jakarta province has the highest scores on the economic growth pillar, both in 2015 and 2019. this achievement is due to its high score in every indicator, except for the primary sector of grdp. moreover, dki jakarta's grdp is the highest among 34 provinces, which effecting on their realized regional budget (rrb) for social protection, environment, and economic growth are also the highest. at the same time, maluku and papua are the provinces with the lowest economic growth achievement pillars in 2015 and 2019. factors that influence their low achievement are the high age dependence ratio, low grdp in all sectors, and unstable grdp per capita growth. aminata, nusantara, & susilowati the analysis of inclusive green growth in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 150 figure 3 economic growth pillar in 2015 and 2019 there are several important notes related to the result of this pillar. the first is that the pillars of economic growth increased in almost every province. this result is in line with the research conducted by jha et al. (2018), which states that there has been an improvement in economic conditions in indonesia. this improvement is significant because, as stated by klasen (2010) and wafiq and suryanto (2021) that rapid economic growth is a prerequisite for an economy to achieve inclusive growth and maintain environmental quality. however, four provinces suffer a decline in the economic growth pillar, namely central java, di yogyakarta, west nusa tenggara, and papua. another important note is economic disparities between provinces in the western region of indonesia (wri) and the eastern region of indonesia (eri). this disparity can be seen by the top ten provinces with the highest scores which 9 of them are provinces from wri while only 1 of them is from eri. this disparity phenomenon is in line with the research results conducted by liderson and pasaribu (2020), which showed economic disparities between provinces in wri and eri. the main reason for the disparity phenomenon is a high gap in grdp receipts between provinces, which affects the rrb. economic inequality circumstances and its cause are in line with ilham's (2021) research which states the dominance of java island in the national economy, which can be seen from the considerable grdp revenue of the province in java island, and this grdp gap is because java is densely populated compared to other islands. therefore, the solution needed is to increase sectors and business fields, especially leading and potential sectors, in all provinces to create new growth poles and equalize the population distribution. social equity pillar the social equity pillar is improving, from the average score of 3.55 in 2015 to 3.57 in 2019, as shown in table 1. this improvement was less significant than in the economic growth pillar because 15 provinces, or almost 50% of the entire provinces in indonesia, suffered declining scores. as shown in figure 4, the province with the highest scores was 0,00 1,00 2,00 3,00 4,00 5,00 aceh north sumatera west sumatera riau jambi south sumatera bengkulu lampung bangka belitung islands riau islands dki jakarta west java central java di yogyakarta east java banten bali west nusa tenggara east nusa tenggara west kalimantan central kalimantan south kalimantan east kalimantan north kalimantan north sulawesi central sulawesi south sulawesi southeast sulawesi gorontalo west sulawesi maluku north maluku west papua papua 2015 2019 aminata, nusantara, & susilowati the analysis of inclusive green growth in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 151 bali in 2015 and di yogyakarta in 2019. both regions have exemplary achievements in some indicators, like better public service and infrastructure, access to education, and access to jobs for all genders. unfortunately, di yogyakarta, as the best province in 2019, suffers a high gini coefficient reflecting high-income disparities. at the same time, papua is the province with the lowest score on the social equity pillar in 2015 and 2019. papua received a low score because of their low access for the household to some public service and infrastructure, such as sanitation, electricity, clean water, drinking water, and also the high poverty rate in papua. low access for the household to public service and infrastructure shows that papua must improve its economic infrastructure for the society. the results align with kusumaningrum & yuhan's (2019) and sitorus and arsani's (2018) research, which states that social equity in indonesia's province is at a moderate level except for papua, which is unsatisfactory because of the lack of public service and infrastructure. figure 4 social equity pillar in 2015 and 2019 some important notes need to be solved in almost every province on this pillar. first, the access for every gender on economic and political activities needs to be improved because the gender empowerment index and the gap of labour force participation rate (lfpr) between genders show a high gap between men and women on participating in economic and political activities. increasing the role of women in economic and political activities is essential, considering this can boost indonesia's economic incentives (nazah et al., 2021). second, the participation rate in primary education, especially at the high school level, needs to be improved because the net enrolment rate (ner) for the high school level falls off drastically from the junior high school level. this note is not matched with the results of robert's research which concludes that the performance of indonesia's education is already good based on its school enrolment. it is undeniable that in general, the conditions for school enrolment in indonesia are good, but what needs to be noted is that the compulsory education program in indonesia is divided into three levels, namely elementary, junior, and senior high school, and based on the data obtained, participation 0 1 2 3 4 5 aceh north sumatera west sumatera riau jambi south sumatera bengkulu lampung bangka belitung islands riau islands dki jakarta west java central java di yogyakarta east java banten bali west nusa tenggara east nusa tenggara west kalimantan central kalimantan south kalimantan east kalimantan north kalimantan north sulawesi central sulawesi south sulawesi southeast sulawesi gorontalo west sulawesi maluku north maluku west papua papua 2015 2019 aminata, nusantara, & susilowati the analysis of inclusive green growth in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 152 at the senior high school level is highly decreased compared to elementary and junior high school. therefore, it is crucial to increase educational participation by improving school enrolment at the senior high school level to complete compulsory study programs because education has a central role in accelerating growth in indonesia (anwar, 2018). third, a low level of household access to public services and infrastructures in several provinces such as papua and bengkulu. this note is essential considering the goals of inclusive green growth is growth and development that can be felt equally so that no one is left behind (jha et al., 2018). environmental sustainability pillar the environmental sustainability pillar declined from 4.19 to 4.00 in 2019, the weakening of the environmental pillar is in line with robert's research which states that indonesia has a weak environmental performance, thereby increasing the score of the total gap between pillars (jha et al., 2018). it can be seen in figure 5 that the provinces with the highest scores are west papua province in 2015 and central sulawesi in 2019. their high performance is due to their water, air, and land cover quality scores. at the same time, dki jakarta was the worst province in 2015 and 2019. their low achievement on environmental sustainability was low because their water, air, and land cover quality score were low, especially in their achievement for air and land cover quality which is the worst among 33 other provinces. the results of this study are in line with the results of liderson and pasaribu (2020), who states that one of the provinces with the lowest scores in environmental sustainability pillars is dki jakarta. figure 5 environmental sustainability in 2015 and 2019 in contrast to the economic growth pillar, provinces on java island achieved a lower environmental sustainability pillar score than provinces on the other island. this phenomenon also applies to comparisons between regions where the achievements of provinces in eri are higher than provinces in wri. the low scores of java island and the 0,00 1,00 2,00 3,00 4,00 5,00 6,00 aceh north sumatera west sumatera riau jambi south sumatera bengkulu lampung bangka belitung islands riau islands dki jakarta west java central java di yogyakarta east java banten bali west nusa tenggara east nusa tenggara west kalimantan central kalimantan south kalimantan east kalimantan north kalimantan north sulawesi central sulawesi south sulawesi southeast sulawesi gorontalo west sulawesi maluku north maluku west papua papua 2015 2019 aminata, nusantara, & susilowati the analysis of inclusive green growth in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 153 wri regency are in line with research by liderson and pasaribu (2020), which shows that the achievement of environmental pillars in eri province is higher than in wri even ilham (2021) mentions that several areas in wri are in hazardous environmental conditions. furthermore, all governments in indonesia need to pay attention to their environmental sustainability because there has been a fall in the environmental sustainability pillar from 2015 to 2019. figure 5 shows that 24 provinces experienced a decrease in the environmental sustainability pillar in 2015 and 2019. the degradation of environmental quality is not a good sign, considering that the inclusive green growth concept is to maintain ecological sustainability for a better and more sustainable future (world bank, 2012). conclusion this study aims to measure inclusive green growth in indonesia and see its progress in 2015 and 2019. the contribution made through this research is capturing and describing the indicators that compose green and inclusive growth concepts in indonesia's province. a common problem related to iggi in indonesia is that although there is an improvement on balanced iggi, this improvement is not ideal and desired yet. it is not perfect yet because economic growth is the central pillar that influences the progress while the environment and social equity are declining in 15 24 provinces. furthermore, specific issues need to be resolved in each constituent pillar. in the economic growth pillar, issues related to disparities of grdp receipt need to be solved so the rrb can also be increased. in the social equity pillar, problems related to the gender access gap on economic and political activities, ner for senior high school level, and household access for economic infrastructure need to be boosted. it is vital so the current development can be inclusive by participating more people in the process and everyone comprehensively feels the impact. the next issue is water, air, and land cover degradation in the environmental sustainability pillar that needs to be addressed immediately. it is essential to protect and preserve the environment to achieve better development for the future society. suggestions made from this study are to encourage the government to provide some data related to environmental sustainability that the public can access and available at every government level, not only at the national but also at the regional level. data availability is essential so that further research can be more representative in describing the inclusive green growth in indonesia. another suggestion is to solve each specific issue in the constituent pillar mentioned above so the improvement of balanced iggi in indonesia can be ideal and in accordance with 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1 fakultas ekonomi universitas lambung mangkurat  jalan brigjen h. hasan basry, banjarmasin  telepon/fax: (0511) 330 5116,   e‐mail: restiatun@yahoo.com  abstrak: penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi sektor unggulan di setiap kabupaten/kota di provinsi daerah istimewa yogyakarta. selain itu, analisis disparitas antara kabupaten juga dibahas dalam penelitian ini. penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan location quotient, tipologi klassen, indeks williamson, dan indeks entropi theil. hasil penelitian menunjukkan kecenderungan disparitas ini meningkat dari waktu ke waktu, kota yogyakarta dalam klasifikasi daerah cepat maju dan cepat tumbuh, sedangkan kabupaten bantul dan kulon progo, termasuk dalam klasifikasi daerah yang relatif terpencil. provinsi diy terjadi ketidakseimbangan tren naik. rasio dihitung dari pendapatan per kapita tertinggi dan terendah di wilayah provinsi diy menunjukkan tren perbaikan. kata kunci: disparitas, location quotient, tipologi klassen, indeks wlliamson abstract: this study aims to identify the leading sectors in each district/city in the province of yogyakarta special region. in addition, analysis of the disparities between districts was also discussed in this study. this study using location quotient approach, typology klassen, williamson index and theil entropy index. the results showed that there is a tendency that this disparity increased over time, the city of yogyakarta in the regional classification fast forward and fast growing, whereas the districts of bantul and kulon progo, including in relatively remote areas classification. diy province rising trend imbalances occur. the calculated ratio of the highest per capita income and lowest regions in the province of diy shows the trend of improvement. keywords: disparity, location quotient, typologi klassen, williamson index pendahuluan  adanya  realitas  kesenjangan  regional  dan  distribusi spasial atas sumber daya merupa‐ kan dampak dari proses pembangunan yang  tidak merata. pembangunan sarana dan pra‐ sarana  umumnya  lebih  diutamakan  untuk  daerah  dengan  kepadatan  penduduk  yang  tinggi. sehingga dapat juga dikatakan bahwa  ketimpangan antardaerah erat kaitannya de‐ ngan  ketimpangan  penyebaran  penduduk.  daerah‐daerah  yang  padat  penduduk  dan  dengan  sarana/prasarana  yang  memadai  akan  menjadi  pusat  kegiatan  ekonomi,  aki‐ batnya  penyebaran  kegiatan  ekonomi  men‐ jadi  tidak  merata  dan  berdampak  pada  ke‐ senjangan  pertumbuhan  dan  peningkatan  kesejahteraan  antardaerah.  perbedaan  laju  pertumbuhan  antardaerah  ini  akan  menye‐ babkan terjadinya kesenjangan kemakmuran  dan kemajuan antardaerah.  premis dari agenda pertumbuhan adalah  jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 77 ‐ 98 78  bahwa  pertumbuhan  ekonomi  merupakan  kunci untuk mengatasi masalah kemiskinan,  menurunkan  tingkat  pertumbuhan  pendu‐ duk,  melindungi  lingkungan  dan  memper‐ kuat tatanan sipil. premis ini menjadi sangat  ironis karena di banyak negara pertumbuhan  ekonomi  tetap  saja  menyimpan  persoalan  yang  krusial  yang  meliputi  kemiskinan,  pe‐ ngangguran  dan  ketimpangan  baik  secara  sosial maupun ekonomi. ketimpangan yang  sering terjadi secara sosial ataupun ekonomi  ini  akan  menciptakan  kelompok‐kelompok  penduduk yang  tidak memiliki kemampuan  untuk  mengakses  sumberdaya‐sumberdaya  pembangunan.   model pertumbuhan harrod‐domar yang  didasarkan  pada  prinsip‐prinsip  ekonomi  neoklasik  berasumsi  bahwa  pertumbuhan  ekonomi  dari  kenaikan  output  nasional  me‐ rupakan  indikator  adanya  kenaikan  tingkat  kesejahteraan  masyarakat,  melalui  pencip‐ taan lapangan kerja baru karena adanya tam‐ bahan atau perluasan  investasi serta adanya  efek penetesan ke bawah  (trickle down). wa‐ laupun  terdapat bukti empiris yang menun‐ jukkan  bahwa  terdapat  hubungan  positif  antara  pertumbuhan  ekonomi  dan  pengura‐ ngan  tingkat  kemiskinan,  namun  lebih  ba‐ nyak bukti yang menunjukkan bahwa faktor  utama  dalam  penentuan  distribusi  penda‐ patan  adalah  struktur  ekonomi  dan  bukan  tingkat atau laju pertumbuhan ekonomi.  banyak  negara  sedang  berkembang  ter‐ masuk  indonesia  mengalami  pertumbuhan  yang  cukup  tinggi  tetapi  kemiskinan  belum  bisa  dihilangkan,  ketimpangan  pendapatan  dan tingkat pengangguran masih relatif ting‐ gi. hal ini disebabkan karena tingkat pertum‐ buhan ekonomi yang tinggi tersebut dicapai  dengan  penerapan  teknologi  padat  modal  atau  pertumbuhan  tersebut  dihasilkan  oleh  aktivitas  investasi  sejumlah  kecil  investor  atau pemilik modal atau konglomerat.  terjadinya pola kemitraan antara peme‐ rintah daerah dan sektor swasta sangat diper‐ lukan  dalam  proses  pembangunan  daerah.  kemitraan seperti ini akan berdampak positif  terhadap pengelolaan sumberdaya yang dila‐ kukan oleh pemerintah daerah dan masyara‐ kat  sehingga  akan  tercipta  lapangan  kerja  baru dan merangsang perkembangan kegia‐ tan ekonomi serta pada gilirannya akan terja‐ di pertumbuhan ekonomi dalam wilayah ter‐ sebut. keberhasilan proses pembangunan da‐ pat  dilihat  dari  beberapa  tolok  ukur,  antara  lain  pertumbuhan  ekonomi,  struktur  ekono‐ mi serta semakin kecilnya ketimpangan pen‐ dapatan  antarpenduduk,  antardaerah  dan  antarsektor. tetapi kenyataannya pertumbu‐ han  ekonomi  tidak  selalu  diikuti  dengan  pemerataan.   pembangunan tidak selalu berjalan seca‐ ra sistemik. beberapa daerah mengalami per‐ tumbuhan yang cepat, sedangkan daerah lain  mengalami pertumbuhan yang  lebih  lambat.  pertumbuhan  yang  tidak  merata  dan  distri‐ busi  pendapatan  yang  tidak  berpihak  pada  kesejahteraan masyarakat merupakan kondisi  mayoritas pembangunan daerah di indonesia  saat  ini.  hal  ini  mungkin  disebabkan  oleh  adanya kecenderungan peranan modal yang  lebih memilih daerah perkotaan atau daerah  yang telah memiliki fasilitas seperti prasara‐ na  perhubungan  (transportasi),  telekomuni‐ kasi, jaringan listrik, dan lain‐lain.  untuk dapat tumbuh dengan cepat, sua‐ tu  daerah  perlu  memiliki  satu  atau  lebih  pusat‐pusat  pertumbuhan  regional  yang  memiliki potensi paling kuat. apabila daerah  ini  kuat  maka  akan  terjadi  perembetan  per‐ tumbuhan  bagi  daerah‐daerah  lemah.  per‐ tumbuhan  ini  akan  berdampak  positif  bagi  daerah‐daerah di sekitarnya. diharapkan per‐ tumbuhan yang cepat di pusat pertumbuhan  dapat menetes ke bawah (trickle down effect),  yaitu  adanya  pertumbuhan  di  daerah  yang  identifikasi sektor unggulan... (restiatun)  79 kuat  akan  menyerap  potensi  kerja  atau  mungkin daerah yang lemah dapat mengha‐ silkan  produk  yang  sifatnya  komplementer  dengan produk yang dihasilkan daerah kuat.  selain  itu,  perlu  juga  ditentukan  hubungan  pusat  dan  daerah  yang  memiliki  potensi  paling kuat sehingga dapat memicu pertum‐ buhan  ekonomi  di  daerah  lain  yang  lemah  (wiyadi, 2003).  pertumbuhan  ekonomi  yang  ditandai  dengan  peningkatan  produk  domestik  re‐ gional bruto (pdrb) diperlukan guna mem‐ percepat struktur perekonomian yang berim‐ bang  dan  dinamis  bercirikan  industri  yang  kuat dan maju, pertanian yang tangguh serta  memiliki  basis  pertumbuhan  sektoral  yang  seimbang. pertumbuhan ekonomi juga diper‐ lukan  untuk  menggerakkan  dan  memacu  pembangunan  dalam  rangka  meningkatkan  pendapatan  masyarakat  dan  mengatasi  ke‐ senjangan sosial ekonomi.   provinsi  daerah  istimewa  yogyakarta  terdiri  atas  empat  kabupaten,  yaitu  kabu‐ paten  sleman,  kabupaten  bantul,  kabupaten  kulon  progo  dan  kabupaten  gunung  kidul  serta satu kota, yakni kota yogyakarta. dari  kelima  kabupaten  kota  tersebut,  kabupaten  kulon  progo  merupakan  kabupaten  paling  miskin, karena memiliki pendapatan daerah  yang sangat kecil dibandingkan keempat ka‐ bupaten/kota lainnya.   tabel 1, tabel 2, tabel 3, dan tabel 4 me‐ nyajikan data seluruh kabupaten/kota di pro‐ vinsi  diy  terkena  dampak  krisis  ekonomi,  tetapi dampak  terbesar dan  terlama dialami  oleh  kabupaten  kulon  progo,  karena  ketika  pertumbuhan seluruh kabupaten/kota negatif  pada  tahun  1998,  kabupaten  kulon  progo  mengalami  pertumbuhan  negatif  terbesar.  tahun  1999,  kota  yogyakarta,  kabupaten  sleman,  kabupaten  bantul,  dan  kabupaten  gunung  kidul  mulai  terjadi  recovery  ekono‐ mi,  di  mana  pertumbuhan  ekonomi  mulai  positif,  kabupaten  kulon  progo  masih  me‐ ngalami  pertumbuhan  negatif  sebesar  ‐10%.  hal ini mungkin disebabkan oleh rendahnya  tingkat  pembangunan  di  kabupaten  kulon  progo. perbedaan tingkat pembangunan akan  membawa  dampak  pada  perbedaan  tingkat  kesejahteraan  antardaerah  yang  pada  akhir‐ tabel 1. pdrb atas dasar harga konstan tahun 1993 kabupaten/kota    di provinsi diy tahun 1993‐2003 (juta rupiah)        kab/kota    tahun  kota  yogyakarta  kabupaten  sleman  kabupaten  bantul  kabupaten  kulon  progo  kabupaten  gunung  kidul  1993  1,138,284  1,139,135  701,852  399,454  750,904  1994  1,227,679  1,235,258  757,813  408,785  807,057  1995  1,358,904  1,336,030  812,682  415,042  865,434  1996  1,479,654  1,446,210  867,199  436,330  925,738  1997  1,550,159  1,497,330  893,352  447,571  960,495  1998  1,378,655  1,372,071  809,932  384,783  890,348  1999  1,393,312  1,398,538  820,611  346,061  905,619  2000  1,443,185  1,449,351  845,718  352,854  930,497  2001  1,489,258  1,507,369  871,970  360,577  950,887  2002  1,540,801  1,578,866  903,932  369,546  968,908  2003  1,602,184  1,654,682  943,757  381,842  989,017    sumber: produk domestik regional bruto, bps, beberapa edisi  jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 77 ‐ 98 80  nya  akan  menyebabkan  ketimpangan  regio‐ nal yang semakin besar.   pola pembangunan suatu daerah sangat  ditentukan  oleh  visi  dan  misi  dari  masing‐ masing  daerah.  adapun  visi  dan  misi  dari  provinsi diy dan kelima kabupaten/kotanya  sebagai berikut:   provinsi  daerah  istimewa  yogyakarta.  visi  pembangunan  daerah:  “terwujudnya  pembangunan  regional  sebagai  wahana  menuju pada kondisi daerah istimewa yog‐ yakarta  pada  tahun  2020  sebagai  pusat  pendidikan, budaya dan daerah tujuan wisa‐ ta terkemuka, dalam lingkungan masyarakat  tabel 2. pertumbuhan pdrb kabupaten/kota di provinsi diy (dalam %) kab/kota  1994  1995  1996  1997  1998  1999  2000  2001  2002  2003  yogyakarta  7.85  10.69  8.89  4.76  ‐11.06  1.06  3.58  3.19  3.46  3.98  sleman  8.44  8.16  8.25  3.53  ‐8.37  1.93  3.63  4.00  4.74  4.80  bantul  7.97  7.24  6.71  3.02  ‐9.34  1.32  3.06  3.10  3.67  4.41  kulonprogo  2.34  1.53  5.13  2.58  ‐14.03  ‐10.06  1.96  2.19  2.49  3.33  gunung kidul  7.48  7.23  6.99  3.75  ‐7.30  1.72  2.75  2.19  1.90  2.08    sumber: produk domestik regional bruto, bps, beberapa edisi, diolah.    tabel 3. pdrb perkapita atas dasar harga konstan tahun 1993 kabupaten/kota      di provinsi diy tahun 1993‐2003        kab/kota  tahun  kota  yogyakarta  kabupaten  sleman  kabupaten  bantul  kabupaten  kulon progo  kabupaten  gunung kidul  1993  2787268  1402016  975433  1073464  1143545  1994  3017456  1497636  1040780  1098864  1225207  1995  3352703  1595721  1103023  1116067  1309777  1996  3664696  1701712  1163243  1173776  1396788  1997  3854305  1735830  1184360  1204550  1444903  1998  3441432  1567191  1061305  1036076  1335443  1999  3491939  1573971  1062872  932315  1354421  2000  3631586  1607291  1082784  951179  1387675  2001  3762891  1647252  1103600  972619  1414122  2002  3909273  1700303  1130995  997494  1436968  2003  4082081  1756132  1167405  1031442  1462837  sumber: produk domestik regional bruto, bps, beberapa edisi    tabel 4. pertumbuhan pdrb perkapita kabupaten/kota di provinsi diy (dalam %)  kab/kota  1994  1995  1996  1997  1998  1999  2000  2001  2002  2003  yogyakarta  8.26  11.11  9.36  5.17  ‐10.71  1.47  4.00  3.62  3.89  4.42  sleman  6.82  6.55  6.64  2.00  ‐9.72  0.43  2.12  2.49  3.22  3.28  bantul  6.70  5.98  5.46  1.82  ‐10.39  0.15  1.87  1.92  2.48  3.22  kulonprogo  2.37  1.57  5.17  2.62  ‐13.99  ‐10.01  2.02  2.25  2.56  3.40  gunung kidul    7.14  6.90  6.64  3.44  ‐7.58  1.42  2.46  1.91  1.62  1.80  sumber: produk domestik regional bruto, bps, beberapa edisi, diolah.   identifikasi sektor unggulan... (restiatun)  81 yang  maju,  mandiri,  sejahtera  lahir  batin  didukung  oleh  nilai‐nilai  kejuangan  dan  pemerintah yang bersih dalam pemerintahan  yang  baik  dengan  mengembangkan  ketaha‐ nan sosial budaya dan sumberdaya berkelan‐ jutan.”  kondisi yang secara bertahap ingin dica‐ pai dengan ditetapkannya visi tersebut, anta‐ ra  lain:  (1) terbentuk citra daerah  istimewa  yogyakarta  sebagai  wilayah  pengembangan  sosiokultural  dan  sosioekonomi  yang  dina‐ mis dan inovatif, berbasis pada ilmu pengeta‐ huan dan teknologi maju serta moral masya‐ rakat  yang  berlandaskan  iman  dan  taqwa  kepada tuhan yang maha esa, (2) tersedia‐ nya  lapangan kerja yang memberikan peng‐ hasilan  yang  cukup  bagi  masyarakat  secara  adil dan merata, (3) terciptanya tingkat kese‐ hatan dan gizi masyarakat yang cukup baik,  sehingga  sumber  daya  manusia  yang  maju,  mandiri  dan  sejahtera  dalam  lingkungan  yang sehat, sehingga dapat diandalkan dalam  persaingan  global,  (4)  terciptanya  kondisi  yang  kondusif  bagi  partisipasi  masyarakat  secara luas dalam pembangunan daerah yang  bertumpu pada tata nilai budaya serta sum‐ berdaya  yang  berkelanjutan,  dengan  me‐ ngembangkan  kerukunan  hidup  antarkom‐ ponen masyarakat, baik antara agama, suku  dan budaya, (5) terciptanya masyarakat yang  menghormati  dan  menegakkan  hak  azasi  manusia (ham) dalam segala aspek kehidu‐ pan,  dan  (6)  terlaksananya  pelayanan  pe‐ merintah yang handal, efisien dan transparan  di dalam suasana kehidupan yang aman dan  tenteram dalam kerangka otonomi daerah.  misi pembangunan daerah: berdasarkan  visi pembangunan serta kondisi daerah yang  diharapkan  akan  terbentuk  secara  bertahap  sepeti tersebut di atas, maka ditetapkan misi  pembangunan  daerah  sebagai  berikut:  (1)  menjadikan daerah istimewa yogyakarta se‐ bagai pusat pendidikan terkemuka di indo‐ nesia  yang didukung  oleh  masyarakat  yang  berilmu pengetahuan dan  teknologi (iptek)  tinggi, (2) menjadikan daerah istimewa yog‐ yakarta sebagai pusat kebudayaan terkemu‐ ka  di  indonesia  dengan  kraton  ngayogya‐ karta hadiningrat sebagai pusat budaya, dan  bertaqwa  (imtaq),  serta  mampu  memilih  dan  menyerap  budaya  modern  yang  positif  dan  tetap  melestarikan  budaya  daerah,  (3)  menjadikan  daerah  istimewa  yogyakarta  sebagai  daerah  otonom  yang  maju  dan  didukung  oleh  aparatur  yang  terpercaya,  profesional,  transparan,  dan  akuntabel,  me‐ nuju penyelenggaraan kepemerintahan yang  baik, demokratis dan berlandaskan pada su‐ premasi  hukum  dalam  bingkai  negara  ke‐ satuan  republik  indonesia,  (4)  menjadikan  daerah istimewa yogyakarta sebagai wilayah  pembangunan yang terpadu, komplementatif  dan  sinergi  antarwilayah  dan  antarsektor  yang efisien dan efektif serta didukung peli‐ batan secara langsung dan aktif peran masya‐ rakat  dalam  pembangunan  daerah,  melalui  ketahanan  sosial  budaya  dan  ketahanan  sumberdaya  yang  berwawasan  lingkungan,  untuk meningkatkan kesejahteraan masyara‐ kat, (5) menjadikan daerah istimewa yogya‐ karta  sebagai  daerah  tujuan  wisata  mice  (meeting  incentive,  conference  and  exibition)  utama  di  indonesia  dan  sekaligus  mengem‐ balikan  posisi  diy  sebagai  daerah  tujuan  wisata  kedua  setelah  bali,  yang  didukung  posisi  daerah  istimewa  yogyakarta  sebagai  simpul  strategis  dan  penting  dalam  perhu‐ bungan  dan  komunikasi  di  pulau  jawa.  (6)  menjadikan  daerah  istimewa  yogyakarta  sebagai wilayah pengembangan  industri se‐ dang  dan  kecil  non‐polutan  serta  industri  rumah  tangga  modern  yang  didukung  oleh  pengembangan  teknologi  tepat  guna  dan  sepadan  seni  daerah  dalam  rangka  mendu‐ kung  pengembangan  pariwisata  daerah  dan  permintaan pasar global, (7) menjadikan dae‐ rah  istimewa  yogyakarta  sebagai  wilayah  jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 77 ‐ 98 82  pengembangan  pertanian  dalam  arti  luas  (pertanian  tanaman  pangan,  perkebunan,  peternakan, perikanan dan kehutanan) yang  didukung  oleh  berkembangnya  perekono‐ mian  rakyat  yang  berkualitas  dalam  rangka  memenuhi tuntutan pasar lokal, regional dan  global dengan produk agrobisnis dan agro‐ industri yang kompetitif.   kota  yogyakarta.  visi  pembangunan  daerah:  “terwujudnya  kota  yogyakarta  sebagai  kota  pendidikan  yang  berkualitas,  pariwisata  yang  berbudaya,  pertumbuhan  dan pelayanan  jasa yang prima, ramah  ling‐ kungan  serta  masyarakat  madani  yang  diji‐ wai semangat mangayu hayuning bawana”  misi  kota  yogyakarta:  (1)  menjadikan  dan  mewujudkan  lembaga  pendidikan  for‐ mal,  non  formal  dan  sumber  daya  manusia  yang  mampu  menguasai  ilmu  pengetahuan  dan tehnologi serta kompetitif dalam rangka  mengembangkan  pendidikan  yang  berkuali‐ tas,  (2)  menjadikan  dan  mewujudkan  pari‐ wisata,  seni  dan  budaya  sebagai  unggulan  daerah  dalam  rangka  mengembangkan  kota  sebagai kota pariwisata yang berbudaya,  (3)  menjadikan  dan  mewujudkan  kota  yogya‐ karta sebagai motor penggerak pertumbuhan  dan pelayanan  jasa yang prima untuk wila‐ yah  provinsi  daerah  istimewa  yogyakarta  dengan  mengembangkan  sistem  ekonomi  kerakyatan, (4) menjadikan dan mewujudkan  masyarakat yang menyadari arti pentingnya  kelestarian  lingkungan  yang  dijiwai  sema‐ ngat ikut memiliki/handarbeni, dan (5) men‐ jadikan dan mewujudkan masyarakat demo‐ krasi  yang  dijiwai  oleh  sikap  kebangsaan  indonesia yang berketuhanan, berkemanusia‐ an yang adil dan beradab, berkerakyatan dan  berkeadilan  sosial  dengan  semangat  persa‐ tuan dan kesatuan.  kabupaten  sleman.  visi  pembangunan  daerah:  “perwujudan  keadaan  masyarakat  yang maju dan tercukupi kebutuhan lahiriah  dan batiniah yang ditandai dengan mening‐ katnya kualitas hidup dan kehidupan masya‐ rakatnya.”  misi pembangunan daerah: (1) menjaga  terselenggaranya  tata  pemerintahan  yang  baik   misi ini merupakan upaya pemerintah  kabupaten sleman dalam terus menjaga cita‐ cita mulia yang memerlukan dukungan dari  seluruh komponen masyarakat dalam pelak‐ sanaan  pemerintahan  dan  pembangunan  yang  mengedepankan  partisipasi,  transpa‐ ransi, responsibilitas, berorientasi pada kon‐ sensus  bersama,  adil,  efektif,  efisien,  akun‐ tabel, dan penegakan supremasi hukum seba‐ gai sarana untuk menciptakan keamanan dan  ketertiban  masyarakat  serta  kehidupan  ber‐ masyarakat yang demokratis. penegakan su‐ premasi  hukum  dilakukan  untuk  menjaga  norma/kaidah  hukum  dalam  masyarakat  serta  mempertahankan  nilai‐nilai  sosial  dan  rasa keadilan masyarakat. misi  ini menjiwai  implementasi misi‐misi yang lain.  (2) menja‐ ga  keberlanjutan  kegiatan  perekonomian  masyarakat. misi  ini merupakan upaya pen‐ capaian  tujuan  pembangunan  kabupaten  sleman  dalam  menciptakan  kesejahteraan  masyarakat terutama kesejahteraan di bidang  ekonomi yang dicapai melalui pertumbuhan  ekonomi  yang  stabil  dan  berkelanjutan  de‐ ngan  mekanisme  pasar  yang  berlandaskan  persaingan sehat serta memperhatikan nilai‐ nilai keadilan, kepentingan sosial, dan berwa‐ wasan lingkungan, (3) meningkatkan kualitas  hidup  dan  kehidupan  masyarakat.  misi  ini  merupakan upaya kabupaten sleman dalam  membangun  sumberdaya  manusia  yang  sehat, cerdas, produktif, kompetitif, dan ber‐ akhlak mulia sebagai kunci dari keberhasilan  pelaksanaan misi yang lainnya. upaya terse‐ but  dilakukan  melalui  peningkatan  akses,  pemerataan,  dan  relevansi  mutu  pelayanan  dasar.  kabupaten  bantul.  visi  pembangunan  daerah:  “mewujudkan  peningkatan  pelaya‐ identifikasi sektor unggulan... (restiatun)  83 nan masyarakat melalui pelaksanaan pemba‐ ngunan  prasarana  dan  sarana  bidang  bina  marga, cipta karya dan daerah di kabupaten  bantul.”  visi  tersebut  mengandung  pengertian  bahwa  untuk  mewujudkan  peningkatan  pe‐ layanan  kepada  masyarakat  bantul,  dinas  pekerjaan  umum  harus  melaksanakan  pro‐ gram pembangunan prasarana dan sarana di  bidang  bina  marga  dan  cipta  karya  secara  berkesinambungan  sesuai  dengan  perenca‐ naan  strategis  selama  5  tahun  (tahun  2006  s/d 2010).   misi pembangunan daerah: (1) mening‐ katkan pelayanan di sektor transportasi, sub  sektor  prasarana  jalan  di  kabupaten  bantul,  (2) meningkatkan pelayanan di sektor peru‐ mahan  dan  permukiman  serta  pengemba‐ ngan  wilayah  secara  terpadu  di  kabupaten  bantul,  dan  (3)  mendukung  peningkatan  pelayanan  masyarakat  pada  sektor  keseha‐ tan, pendidikan, perdagangan dan peningka‐ tan kinerja aparatur pemerintah di kabupa‐ ten bantul.  kabupaten  kulon  progo.  visi  pemba‐ ngunan  daerah:  “membangun  kulon  progo  dalam kebersamaan menuju penguatan eko‐ nomi  lokal  berbasis  ekonomi  kerakyatan  demi mewujudkan masyarakat kulon progo  yang mandiri, aman, sejahtera, dinamis ber‐ landaskan iman dan taqwa.”  misi pembangunan daerah: berdasarkan  visi  tersebut  yang  didukung  dengan  keber‐ hasilan  etos  kerja  ”tirta  marga  saras”  pada  periode  pembangunan  lima  tahun  sebelum‐ nya  dan  dengan  semangat  etos  kerja  yang  baru  ”membangun  desa  menumbuhkan  kota” maka misi pembangunan jangka mene‐ ngah kabupaten kulon progo adalah sebagai  berikut:  (1) meningkatkan kapasitas dan ke‐ berpihakan kelembagaan pemerintah kepada  rakyat/masyarakat  untuk  mencapai  tata  ke‐ lola  pemerintahan  yang  baik  (good  govern‐ ance), (2) meningkatkan profesionalisme dan  jiwa entrepreneur aparatur, (3)  meningkatkan  pemberdayaan  masyarakat  dan  desa,  (4)  meningkatkan kesejahteraan sosial masyara‐ kat, (5) mengembangkan perekonomian rak‐ yat  terutama  agribisnis  dan  pariwisata,  (6)  memfasilitasi  pengembangan  dunia  usaha  dan  investasi  daerah,  (7)  meningkatkan  ke‐ tentraman, ketertiban, keimanan, dan ketaq‐ waan,  dan  (8)  melestarikan  budaya  dan  melestarikan fungsi lingkungan hidup.  kabupaten gunung kidul. visi pemba‐ ngunan daerah: “menjadi pemerintah daerah  yang baik dan bersih, responsive, untuk men‐ dukung  terwujudnya  masyarakat  mandiri  dan kompetitif.”  misi  pembangunan  daerah:  (1)  mewu‐ judkan  referensi  birokrasi:  meningkatkan  kapasitas  perangkat  daerah,  meningkatkan  kemampuan  pengelolaan  keuangan  daerah,  meningkatkan  kapasitas  desa  dalam  melak‐ sanakan otonomi;  (2) mewujudkan pengem‐ bangan sdm masyarakat: meningkatkan kua‐ litas  sdm  masyarakat,  meningkatkan  kese‐ jahteraan  rakyat;  (3)  mewujudkan  pengem‐ bangan dan pemanfaatan sumber daya alam  wilayah  yang  berwawasan  lingkungan  de‐ ngan  pendekatan  kewilayahaan:  meningkat‐ kan  pemanfaatan  dan  nilai  tambah  sumber  daya  alam,  mewujudkan  keserasian  peman‐ faatan dan pengendalian ruang dalam suatu  sistem  wilayah  pembangunan  yang  berke‐ lanjutan;  (4)  mewujudkan  pengembangan  dunia  usaha  dan  koperasi:  meningkatkan  pertumbuhan  dan  ketahanan  ekonomi  dae‐ rah,  meningkatkan  peran  serta  masyarakat  dan  swasta  dalam  pengembangan  dunia  usaha  dan  koperasi,  meningkatkan  daya  saing produk barang dan jasa.  dari  data‐data  pada  tabel  di  atas  juga  terlihat  bahwa  di  provinsi  daerah  istimewa  yogyakarta  mengalami  ketimpangan  antar‐ kabupaten, dimana ada kabupaten yang me‐ jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 77 ‐ 98 84  miliki pendapatan relatif sangat tinggi seperti  kota yogyakarta dan kabupaten sleman, serta  terdapat  kabupaten  yang  memiliki  penda‐ patan sangat rendah, yaitu kabupaten kulon  progo. agar   daerah‐daerah yang  lemah da‐ pat mengejar ketertinggalannya, maka perlu  dianalisis  kabupaten  mana  di  provinsi  diy  tersebut  yang  berpotensi  kuat  dalam  pe‐ ngembangannya sehingga akan ada rembetan  pertumbuhan  bagi  kabupaten‐kabupaten  di  sekitarnya serta perlu dianalisis potensi apa  yang  memungkinkan  untuk  dikembangkan  dalam  rangka  pengembangan  ekonomi  dae‐ rah.  tujuan  dari  penelitian  ini  adalah  untuk  mengidentifikasi  pola  dan  struktur  pereko‐ nomian  kabupaten/kota  di  provinsi  daerah  istimewa  yogyakarta,  untuk  menganalisis  kesesuaian  antara  visi  dan  misi  kabupa‐ ten/kota di provinsi daerah istimewa yogya‐ karta  dengan  potensi  masing‐masing,  untuk  menganalisis ketimpangan antarkabupaten di  provinsi  daerah  istimewa  yogyakarta,  dan  untuk  mengetahui  kabupaten‐kabupaten  mana saja di provinsi daerah istimewa yog‐ yakarta  yang  berpotensi  kuat  untuk  dikem‐ bangkan.  pertumbuhan  ekonomi.  pertumbuhan  ekonomi  dipandang  sebagai  suatu  proses  dimana  pendapatan  nasional  perkapita  riil  naik dibarengi dengan penurunan ketimpan‐ gan  pendapatan  dan  pemenuhan  keinginan  masyarakat  secara  terus  menerus  dan  ber‐ jangka waktu yang panjang dan dapat dilihat  dari lancarnya distribusi atas barang dan jasa  (jhingan,  1999:  7).  sedangkan  menurut  boe‐ diono (1985: 1) pertumbuhan ekonomi adalah  proses kenaikan output perkapita dalam jang‐ ka  panjang.  penekanan  pada  proses  karena  proses mengandung unsur dinamis.   suatu  perekonomian  dikatakan  menga‐ lami pertumbuhan atau berkembang apabila  tingkat  kegiatan  ekonomi  lebih  tinggi  dari‐ pada  apa  yang  dicapai  sebelumnya.  untuk  mempertahankan pertumbuhan ekonomi da‐ lam  jangka  panjang,  harus  memperhatikan  kebijakan penggunaan sumberdaya agar ter‐ hindar  dari  penggunaan  sumberdaya  yang  tidak tepat. para teoritisi ilmu ekonomi pem‐ bangunan  masa  kini  masih  terus  menyem‐ purnakan  makna,  hakikat  dan  konsep  per‐ tumbuhan  ekonomi.  para  teoritisi  tersebut  menyatakan  bahwa  pertumbuhan  ekonomi  tidak  hanya  diukur  dengan  pertambahan  pdb dan pdrb saja, tetapi juga diberi bobot  yang bersifat immaterial seperti kenikmatan,  kepuasan  dan  kebahagiaan  dengan  rasa  aman dan tenteram yang dirasakan masyara‐ kat (arsyad, 1999: 1)  menurut  pandangan  beberapa  ekonom  klasik,  yakni  adam  smith,  david  ricardo,  thomas  robert  malthus,  dan  jhon  stuart  mill  serta  ekonom  neoklasik,  yaitu robert solow  dan  trevor  swan,  bahwa  terdapat  empat  faktor  yang  mempengaruhi  pertumbuhan  ekonomi  yaitu  (1)  jumlah  penduduk,  (2)  jumlah stok barang modal, (3) luas tanah dan  kekayaan alam dan (4) tingkat teknologi yang  digunakan (sukirno, 1985: 275).   menurut kuznets,   pertumbuhan ekono‐ mi  adalah  kenaikan  kapasitas  dalam  jangka  panjang dari negara yang bersangkutan un‐ tuk  menyediakan  berbagai  barang  ekonomi  kepada penduduknya. kenaikan kapasitas itu  sendiri  ditentukan  atau  dimungkinkan  oleh  adanya  kemajuan  atau  penyesuaian‐penye‐ suaian teknologi, institusional (kelembagaan)  dan  ideologis  terhadap  barbagai  tuntutan  yang  ada.  terdapat  enam  karakteristik  per‐ tumbuhan  ekonomi  menurur kuznets,  yaitu:  (todaro, 2004: 99‐100): (1) tingkat perkemba‐ ngan output perkapita dan pertumbuhan pen‐ duduk yang tinggi, (2) tingkat pertumbuhan  produktivitas faktor yang tinggi, (3) tingkat  transformasi  struktur  ekonomi  yang  tinggi,  (4)  tingkat  transformasi  sosial  dan  ideologi  identifikasi sektor unggulan... (restiatun)  85 yang  tinggi,  (5) adanya kecenderungan ne‐ gara‐negara  yang  mulai  atau  yang  sudah  maju  perekonomiannya  untuk  merambah  bagian‐bagian dunia  lain sebagai daerah pe‐ masaran  dan  sumber  bahan  baku,  dan  (6)  berkurangnya  kesenjangan  pertumbuhan  antara  negara  maju  dengan  negara‐negara  sedang berkembang.  dari analisis pertumbuhan historis di ne‐ gara‐negara  maju,  kuznets  mengemukakan  sebuah  hipotesis  bahwa  pada  tahap  awal  pertumbuhan,  distribusi  pendapatan  cende‐ rung memburuk,  tatapi pada  tahap berikut‐ nya  hal  itu  akan  membaik.  observasi  ini  kemudian  dikenal  sebagai  konsep  kurva  u  terbalik kuznets (todaro, 2004: 207). hipotesis  kuznets  ini  sejalan  dengan  teori  kutub  pertumbuhan yang dipopulerkan oleh perrouk  (1970)  yang  menyatakan  bahwa  pertumbu‐ han tidak muncul di berbagai daerah dalam  waktu yang bersamaan. pertumbuhan hanya  terjadi di beberapa  tempat yang merupakan  pusat  (kutub)  pertumbuhan  dengan  intensi‐ tas yang berbeda‐beda.   menurut  arsyad  (1999:  115‐118),  teori  pertumbuhan wilayah meliputi:  teori ekonomi neoklasik.  teori  ekono‐ mi neoklasik memberikan dua konsep pokok  dalam  ekonomi  daerah  yaitu  keseimbangan  (equilibrium)  dan  mobilitas  faktor  produksi.  artinya, sistem ekonomi akan mencapai ke‐ seimbangan  jika  modal  bisa  mengalir  tanpa  restriksi.  oleh  karena  itu,  modal  akan  me‐ ngalir  dari  daerah  yang  berupah  tinggi  menuju daerah yang berupah rendah.  teori basis ekonomi. teori basis ekono‐ mi menyatakan bahwa faktor penentu utama  pertumbuhan  ekonomi  suatu  daerah  adalah  berhubungan  langsung  dengan  permintaan  akan barang dan  jasa dari  luar daerah. per‐ tumbuhan industri‐industri yang mengguna‐ kan  sumberdaya  lokal,  termasuk  angkatan  kerja dan bahan baku untuk diekspor, akan  menghasilkan  kekayaan  daerah  dan  pencip‐ taan peluang kerja.  strategi  pembangunan  daerah  yang  muncul  yang  didasarkan  pada  teori  ini  adalah  penekanan  terhadap  arti  penting  bantuan kepada dunia usaha yang memiliki  pasar  baik  secara  nasional  maupun  interna‐ sional. implementasi kebijakannya mencakup  pengurangan  hambatan/batasan  terhadap  perusahaan‐perusahaan  yang  berorientasi  ekspor yang ada dan akan didirikan di dae‐ rah tersebut.  teori  lokasi.  teori  lokasi  menyatakan  bahwa  faktor  lokasi mempengaruhi pertum‐ buhan  daerah.  pernyataan  tersebut  sangat  masuk  akal  jika  dikaitkan  dengan  pengem‐ bangan kawasan industri. perusahaan cende‐ rung  untuk  meminimumkan  biayanya  de‐ ngan  cara  memilih  lokasi  yang  memaksi‐ mumkan peluangnya untuk mendekati pasar.  banyak  variabel  yang  mempengaruhi  kuali‐ tas suatu lokasi, misalnya upah tenaga kerja,  biaya energi, ketersediaan pemasok, komuni‐ kasi, fasilitas‐fasilitas pendidikan dan latihan,  kualitas  pemerintah  daerah  dan  tanggung  jawabnya  serta  sanitasi.  perusahaan‐perusa‐ haan  yang  berbeda  membutuhkan  kombi‐ nasi‐kombinasi  yang  berbeda  pula  atas  fak‐ tor‐faktor tersebut.  teori  tempat  sentral.  teori  tempat  sentral menganggap bahwa  terdapat hirarki  tempat. setiap tempat sentral didukung oleh  sejumlah  tempat yang menyediakan sumber  daya.  tempat  sentral  tersebut  merupakan  suatu  pemukiman  yang  menyediakan  jasa‐ jasa  bagi  penduduk  daerah  yang  mendu‐ kungnya. teori tempat sentral dapat diterap‐ kan  pada  pambangunan  ekonomi  daerah,  baik di daerah perkotaan maupun pedesaan.  misalnya,  perlunya  melakukan  pembedaan  fungsi antara daerah‐daerah yang bertetang‐ ga (berbatasan). beberapa daerah bisa menja‐ di wilayah penyedia jasa, sedangkan lainnya  jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 77 ‐ 98 86  sebagai daerah pemukiman.  teori  kausasi  kumulatif.  kondisi  dae‐ rah‐daerah sekitar kota yang semakin buruk  menunjukkan konsep dasar dari tesis kausasi  kumulatif  ini. kekuatan‐kekuatan pasar cen‐ derung  memperparah  kesenjangan  antara  daerah‐daerah tersebut (maju versus terbela‐ kang). daerah yang maju mengalami akumu‐ lasi  keunggulan  kompetitif  dibanding  dae‐ rah‐daerah lainnya.  model daya tarik. teori daya tarik in‐ dustri adalah model pembangunan ekonomi  yang paling banyak digunakan oleh masyara‐ kat. teori ekonomi yang mendasarinya ada‐ lah bahwa suatu masyarakat dapat memper‐ baiki  posisi  pasarnya  terhadap  industrialis  melalui pemberian subsidi dan insentif.    ketimpangan  pembangunan  antardae‐ rah.  ketimpangan  pembangunan  daerah  se‐ lalu muncul dan cenderung semakin melebar.  fenomena yang dijelaskan oleh myrdal seba‐ gai  akibat  dari  proses  penyebab  akumulatif  (cumulative causation). menurut myrdal back‐ wash  effect  (dampak  yang  merugikan)  lebih  besar  dibanding  spread  effect  (dampak  yang  menguntungkan).  oleh  karena  itu,  apabila  tingkat pembangunan di berbagai daerah di‐ bandingkan,  maka  pembangunan  yang  di‐ capai oleh daerah yang lebih maju selalu  le‐ bih cepat daripada yang terjadi pada daerah  lain.  hal  ini  dalam  jangka  panjang    akan  menyebabkan tingkat ketimpangan yang cu‐ kup lebar (sukirno, 1985 : 24).  aliran neoklasik menyatakan bahwa ke‐ senjangan  pertumbuhan  antardaerah  dapat  terjadi  karena  tiga  alasan,  yaitu  (armstrong  and taylor, 1993: 64): (1) kemajuan teknologi  yang berbeda antardaerah,  (2) pertumbuhan  persediaan modal (capital stock) yang berbeda  antardaerah, (3) pertumbuhan angkatan kerja  (labor force) yang berbeda antardaerah.  williamson  (1965)  meneliti  hubungan  antara  disparitas  regional  dengan  tingkat  pembangunan  ekonomi  dengan  mengguna‐ kan data perekonomi yang telah maju dengan  perekonomian  yang  belum  berkembang,  ditemukan  bahwa  selama  tahap  awal  pem‐ bangunan,  disparitas  regional  menjadi  lebih  besar  dan  pembangunan  terkonsentrasi  di  daerah‐daerah  tertentu. pada  tahap yang  le‐ bih matang dari pertumbuhan ekonomi tam‐ pak  adanya  keseimbangan  antardaerah  dan  disparitas  berkurang  secara  signifikan  (bro‐ jonegoro, 1999: 3).  pengertian wilayah daerah lebih terbuka  dibanding dengan wilayah nasional, jika dili‐ hat  dari  pergerakan  sumberdaya  antardae‐ rah,  dibandingkan  dengan  pergerakan  sum‐ berdaya  antarnegara.  proses  akumulasi  dan  mobilisasi sumber‐sumber, berupa akumulasi  modal,  keterampilan  tenaga  kerja  dan  sum‐ berdaya  alam  yang  dimiliki  oleh  suatu  daerah  merupakan  penentu  dalam  laju  per‐ tumbuhan ekonomi daerah yang bersangku‐ tan.  adanya  heterogenitas  dan  beragam  karakteristik  suatu  wilayah  menyebabkan  kecenderungan  terjadinya  ketimpangan  an‐ tardaerah  dan  antarsektor  ekonomi  suatu  daerah. bertolak dari kenyataan tersebut, ar‐ dani  (1992: 3) mengemukakan bahwa kesen‐ jangan/ketimpangan antardaerah merupakan  konsekuensi  logis  pembangunan  dan  meru‐ pakan  suatu  tahap  dalam  pembangunan  itu  sendiri.  menurut  williamson  (1999:  5‐9),  kesen‐ jangan antardaerah yang semakin membesar  disebabkan  oleh  pertama,  adanya  migrasi  tenaga kerja antardaerah yang bersifat selek‐ tif, yang pada umumnya para migran  terse‐ but lebih terdidik dan memiliki keterampilan  yang  tinggi  dan  masih  produktif.  kedua,  adanya  migrasi  kapital  antardaerah,  adanya  aglomerasi pada daerah yang relatif kaya me‐ rupakan  daya  tarik  tersendiri  bagi  investor.  ketiga,  adanya  pembangunan  sarana  publik  identifikasi sektor unggulan... (restiatun)  87 pada daerah yang  lebih padat dan potensial  berakibat  mendorong  terjadinya  ketimpa‐ ngan  antardaerah  lebih  besar.  keempat,  ku‐ rangnya keterkaitan antardaerah yang dapat  menyebabkan  terhambatnya  proses  efek  se‐ bar dari proses pembangunan yang berdam‐ pak  pada  semakin  besarnya  kesenjangan  yang terjadi.  teori  pusat  pertumbuhan.  teori  pusat  pertumbuhan menyatakan bahwa kumpulan  industri cenderung memilih lokasi yang me‐ musat  di  kota‐kota  besar  (aglomerasi  eko‐ nomi)  dan  didukung  oleh  sebuah  daerah  pedalaman  (hinterland  yang  kuat)  (wiyadi,  2003).  pendekatan  dengan  teori  pusat  per‐ tumbuhan  dengan  maksud  agar  pertumbu‐ han  suatu  daerah  dapat  menimbulkan  efek  pertumbuhan  bagi  daerah‐daerah  lainnya.  dalam  perkembangan  berikutnya  pendeka‐ tan  ini  dapat  digunakan  untuk  mengkaji  hubungan  timbal  balik  desa‐kota.  dengan  mengembangkan  kota  diharapkan  agar  per‐ kembangan  ini  dapat  menetes  ke  desa‐desa  melalui arus barang, bahan pangan, urbani‐ sasi dan bahkan modal.  menurut myrdal  (1999)  potensi  sumber‐ daya yang   dimiliki antara satu dan daerah  lainnya  tidak  merata.  oleh  karena  itu  per‐ tumbuhan antar daerah juga berbeda. untuk  dapat  tumbuh  secara  cepat,  suatu  daerah  perlu memilih satu atau lebih pusat pertum‐ buhan regional yang memiliki potensi paling  kuat. apabila region ini kuat maka akan ter‐ jadi  perembetan  pertumbuhan  bagi  region‐ region lemah.  metode  alat analisis  1. analisis indeks williamson. untuk menge‐ tahui ketimpangan pembangunan antarkabu‐ paten  yang  terjadi  di  provinsi  daerah  isti‐ mewa  yogyakarta  tahun  1993‐2003  dapat  dianalisis  dengan  menggunakan  indeks  ketimpangan  regional  (regional  inequality)  yang  disebut  sebagai  indeks  ketimpangan  williamson. indeks ketimpangan regional ini  semula  digunakan  oleh  jeffrey g. williamson  dengan  rumus  sebagai  berikut:  (sjafrizal,  1997: 31)    y nfyy iw it     (1)  dimana;  yi  adalah  pendapatan  perkapita  di  kabupaten  i, y adalah pendapatan perkapita  rata‐rata  provinsi  daerah  istimewa  yogya‐ karta, fi adalah jumlah penduduk di kabupa‐ ten i, n adalah jumlah penduduk di provinsi  daerah istimewa yogyakarta.  2.  analisis  indeks  entropi  theil.  dengan  menggunakan  alat  analisis  indeks  enthropi  theil  akan diketahui  ada  tidaknya  ketimpa‐ ngan yang terjadi di provinsi daerah istime‐ wa  yogyakarta.  konsep  enthropi  theil  dari  distribusi pada dasarnya merupakan aplikasi  teori  informasi  dalam  mengukur  ketimpa‐ ngan  ekonomi  dan  konsentrasi  industri  (kuncoro,  2004:  133).  adapun  rumus  dari  indeks enthropi theil adalah sebagai berikut:  (ying, 2000)        xxyyxyyi jjjy /log)(    (2)  dimana;  l(y) adalah indeks enthropi theil, yj  adalah pdrb perkapita kabupaten j, y adalah  rata‐rata  pdrb  perkapita  provinsi  daerah  istimewa yogyakarta, xj adalah  jumlah pen‐ duduk kabupaten  j, x adalah  jumlah pendu‐ duk provinsi daerah istimewa yogyakarta  3.  analisis  gravitasi  dan  model  interaksi  ruang. analisis ini digunakan untuk mencari  wilayah  mana  yang  berpotensi  kuat  dalam  pertumbuhannya.  adanya  interaksi  antara  kota‐desa  menunjukkan  eratnya  hubungan  jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 77 ‐ 98 88  antara daerah 1 dan daerah 2 sebagai konse‐ kuensi  interaksi kota‐desa dalam teori pusat  pertumbuhan. adapun rumus yang diguna‐ kan  untuk  menghitung  interaksi  dalam  hubungan kota‐desa adalah:  i1,2 = (w1p1)(w2p2)/j21,2   (3)   dimana; i1,2 adalah interaksi dalam wilayah 1  dan 2, w1 adalah pendapatan perkapita wila‐ yah 1, w2 adalah pendapatan perkapita wila‐ yah 2, p1 adalah jumlah penduduk wilayah 1,  p2  adalah  jumlah  penduduk  wilayah  2,  j1,2  adalah  jarak antara wilayah 1 dan wilayah 2  (dalam meter)   4.  analisis  location  quotient  (lq).  pende‐ katan  lq  merupakan  suatu  teknik  analisis  yang  dimaksudkan  untuk  menentukan  po‐ tensi  spesialisasi  suatu  daerah  terhadap  ak‐ tivitas ekonomi utama atau untuk menentu‐ kan sektor unggulan, yaitu sektor yang dapat  memenuhi  kebutuhan  daerah  sendiri  dan  daerah  lain. formulasi dari lq adalah seba‐ gai berikut.  vtvi vtvi lq     (4)   dimana; v1 adalah pendapatan sektor tertentu  pada  suatu  daerah,  v2  adalah  total  penda‐ patan daerah tersebut, v1 adalah pendapatan  sektor  sejenis  secara  regional  atau  nasional,  v2  adalah  total  pendapatan  regional  atau  nasional  berdasarkan formulasi di atas maka apa‐ bila  lq>1  berarti  daerah  mempunyai  basis  pada sektor tersebut dan ada kelebihan hasil  yang dapat dipasarkan ke daerah lain; lq=1  berarti daerah mempunyai hanya cukup un‐ tuk  memenuhi  kabutuhan  daerah  yang  ber‐ sangkutan tersebut; lq<1 berarti hasil sektor  tersebut  tidak  cukup  untuk  memenuhi  ke‐ butuhan daerah yang bersangkutan sehingga  perlu didatangkan dari daerah lain.  5.  analisis  tipologi  daerah.  untuk  menge‐ tahui  posisi  perekonomian  masing‐masing  kabupaten/kota di provinsi daerah istimewa  yogyakarta,  ditinjau  dari  tingkat  pertum‐ buhan dan pendapatan perkapita digunakan  analisis  tipologi  klassen.  analisis  tipologi  klassen  pada  dasarnya  membagi  daerah  berdasarkan dua indikator utama, yaitu per‐ tumbuhan  ekonomi  daerah  dan  pertumbu‐ han  perkapita  daerah.  dengan  menentukan  rata‐rata pendapatan perkapita sebagai sum‐ bu vertikal dan rata‐rata pendapatan perka‐ pita sebagai sumbu horizontal, daerah yang  diamati  dapat  dibagi  menjadi  empat  klasifi‐ kasi, yaitu: daerah cepat maju dan cepat tum‐ buh  (high  growth  and  high  income),  daerah  maju  tetapi  tertekan  (high  income  but  low  growth),  daerah  berkembang  cepat  (high  tabel 5. klasifikasi kabupaten/kota menurut tipologi klassen.                          pdrb perkapita (y)    laju pertumbuhan (r)  yi > y  yi < y  ri > r  daerah maju dan tumbuh cepat  daerah berkembang cepat  ri < r  daerah maju tetapi tertekan  daerah relatif tertinggal  keterangan: yi adalah pendapatan perkapita rata‐rata wilayah kabupaten i, y adalah pendapatan perkapita  rata‐rata  provinsi,  rj  adalah  laju  pertumbuhan  pdrb  rata‐rata  wilayah  kabupaten  i,  r  adalah  laju  pertumbuhan pdrb rata‐rata provinsi  identifikasi sektor unggulan... (restiatun)  89 growth  but  low  income)  dan  daerah  relatif  tertinggal (low growth and low income) (syafri‐ zal, 1997: 27‐38).  hasil dan pembahasan  analisis lq  untuk  melihat  potensi‐potensi  ekonomi  di  masing‐masing  kabupaten/kota  di  provinsi  diy  dapat  dilakukan  dengan  analisis  lq.  meskipun dari hasil analisis ini dapat diketa‐ hui  sektor‐sektor  unggulan  daerah,  tetapi  dalam  inferensi  hasil  analisis  lq  seringkali  terjadi  kesalahan.  penyebab  terjadinya  kesa‐ lahan  tersebut  adalah:  (1)  pola  selera  dan  pengeluaran  (mpc/marginal  propensity  to  consume)  rumah  tangga  memiliki  tipe  yang  sama, sedangkan tingkat pendapatannya ber‐ beda antardaerah, (2) tingkat pendapatan ru‐ mah  tangga  berbeda  antardaerah,  dan  (3)  produktivitas  tenaga  kerja  dan  bauran  in‐ dustri.  sebagai  contoh  adalah  sebagai  berikut:  (1)  untuk  daerah‐daerah  yang  berhawa  di‐ ngin, meskipun lq>1 untuk industri pertam‐ bangan  minyak  tetap  akan  mengimpor  mi‐ nyak  karena  kebutuhan  akan  bahan  bakar  untuk penghangat ruangan sangat tinggi, (2)  untuk  daerah‐daerah  dengan  tingkat  upah  rendah, meskipun lq<1 untuk sektor indus‐ tri  tetap  akan  mengekspor  karena  daya  beli  masyarakat  rendah,  (3)  untuk  suatu  daerah  yang menjadi lokasi aglomerasi aktivitas eko‐ nomi dan memiliki  jumlah penduduk padat  bisa  jadi  akan  tetap  mengimpor  meskipun  lq>1.  adapun  hasil  perhitungan  lq  kabu‐ paten/kota  di  provinsi  diy  disajikan  dalam  lampiran tabel l 1.  berdasarkan hasil analisis nilai lq dapat  ditentukan sektor‐sektor apa saja yang meru‐ pakan  sektor  basis  dan  berpotensi  untuk  dikembangkan.  adapun  secara  rinci  hasil  analisis masing‐masing sektor untuk masing‐ masing wilayah adalah sebagai berikut:  kota  yogyakarta.  kota  yogyakarta  me‐ miliki  empat  sektor  unggulan,  karena  ter‐ dapat  empat  sektor  yang  memiliki  nilai  lq  lebih besar dari 1. adapun sektor unggulan  tersebut  adalah  sektor  listrik,  gas  dan  air  minum,  sektor  pengangkutan  dan  komuni‐ kasi, sektor keuangan, sewa dan jasa perusa‐ haan serta sektor  jasa‐jasa. artinya keempat  sektor  tersebut  memiliki  sumbangan  yang  lebih besar  terhadap pdrb kota yogyakarta  dibandingkan sumbangan sektor yang sama  terhadap pdrb provinsi diy. hal ini menun‐ jukkan bahwa keempat sektor unggulan ter‐ sebut berpotensi untuk dikembangkan.  kabupaten  sleman.  kabupaten  sleman  memiliki  empat  sektor  unggulan,  karena  terdapat empat sektor yang memiliki nilai lq  lebih besar dari 1. adapun sektor unggulan  tersebut  adalah  sektor  industri  pengolahan,  sektor  bangunan,  sektor  pengangkutan  dan  komunikasi serta sektor keuangan, sewa dan  jasa perusahaan. artinya keempat sektor ter‐ sebut memiliki sumbangan yang  lebih besar  terhadap  pdrb  kabupaten  sleman  diban‐ dingkan sumbangan sektor yang sama terha‐ dap pdrb provinsi diy. hal  ini menunjuk‐ kan bahwa keempat sektor unggulan tersebut  berpotensi untuk dikembangkan.  kabupaten  bantul.  kabupaten  bantul  memiliki lima sektor unggulan, karena terda‐ pat lima sektor yang memiliki nilai lq lebih  besar dari 1. adapun sektor unggulan terse‐ but adalah sektor pertanian, sektor pertamba‐ ngan dan penggalian, sektor bangunan, sek‐ tor pengangkutan dan komunikasi serta sek‐ tor  jasa‐jasa.  artinya  kelima  sektor  tersebut  memiliki sumbangan yang lebih besar terha‐ dap  pdrb  kabupaten  bantul  dibandingkan  sumbangan sektor yang sama terhadap pdrb  provinsi  diy.  hal  ini  menunjukkan  bahwa  jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 77 ‐ 98 90  kelima  sektor  unggulan  tersebut  berpotensi  untuk dikembangkan.  kabupaten  kulon  progo.  kabupaten  kulon progo memiliki lima sektor unggulan,  karena  terdapat  lima  sektor  yang  memiliki  nilai  lq  lebih  besar  dari  1.  adapun  sektor  unggulan  tersebut  adalah  sektor  pertanian,  sektor pertambangan dan penggalian, sektor  bangunan,  sektor  pengangkutan  dan  komu‐ nikasi  serta  sektor  jasa‐jasa.  artinya  kelima  sektor  tersebut  memiliki  sumbangan  yang  lebih besar terhadap pdrb kabupaten kulon  progo dibandingkan sumbangan sektor yang  sama  terhadap  pdrb  provinsi  diy.  hal  ini  menunjukkan bahwa kelima sektor unggulan  tersebut berpotensi untuk dikembangkan.  kabupaten  gunung  kidul.  kabupaten  gunung kidul memiliki empat sektor unggu‐ lan,  karena  terdapat  empat  sektor  yang  memiliki nilai lq lebih besar dari 1. adapun  sektor unggulan tersebut adalah sektor perta‐ nian,  sektor  pertambangan  dan  penggalian,  sektor bangunan, serta sektor pengangkutan  dan komunikasi. artinya keempat sektor ter‐ sebut memiliki sumbangan yang  lebih besar  terhadap  pdrb  kabupaten  gunung  kidul  dibandingkan sumbangan sektor yang sama  terhadap pdrb provinsi diy. hal ini menun‐ jukkan  bahwa  keempat  sektor  unggulan  tersebut berpotensi untuk dikembangkan.  dari  hasil  perhitungan  lq  masing‐ma‐ sing  kabupaten/kota  (hasil  perhitungan  di  lampiran) terlihat bahwa di kota yogyakarta  dan  kabupaten  kulon  progo  terjadi  peruba‐ han  struktural.  mulai  tahun  2000  lapangan  usaha perdagangan, hotel dan restoran men‐ jadi sektor unggulan. hal  ini mungkin dise‐ babkan  oleh  semakin  berkembangnya  kota  yogyakarta  sebagai  kota  pendidikan,  se‐ hingga  semakin  banyak  mahasiswa  pan‐ datang  ke  kota  yogyakarta  yang  memiliki  kebutuhan akan barang dan  jasa, yang meli‐ puti kebutuhan sandang, pangan dan papan.  untuk  memenuhi  kabutuhan  tersebut  maka  diperlukan  jalur  distribusi  barang  dan  jasa,  yaitu  melalui  lapangan  usaha  perdagangan,  hotel dan restoran, sehingga sektor ini cukup  berkembang  di  kota  yogyakarta  dan  akhir‐ nya  sektor  yang  berpotensi  untuk  dikem‐ bangkan  karena  mulai  tahun  2000  memiliki  nilai lq>1.   untuk  kabupaten  kulon  progo  yang  terjadi justru sebaliknya. sebelum tahun 1999  lapangan usaha bangunan merupakan sektor  unggulan,  tetapi  mulai  tahun  1999  nilai  lq  lapangan  usaha  ini  mengalami  penurunan  menjadi  kurang  dari  1  sehingga  bukan  lagi  menjadi sektor unggulan di kabupaten kulon  progo.  hal  ini  kemungkinan  merupakan  dampak dari krisis ekonomi sehingga mulai  tahun  1999,  aktivitas  pembangunan  fisik  menurun.  kota  yogyakarta  memiliki  visi  untuk  menjadikan  kota  yogyakarta  sebagai  kota  pendidikan, pariwisata yang berbudaya, per‐ tumbuhan dan pelayanan  jasa prima, ramah  lingkungan  serta  masyarakat  madani  yang  dijiwai semangat mangayu hayuning bawana.  visi tersebut sesuai dengan potensi unggulan  yang  dimiliki  kota  yogyakarta  yaitu  sektor  pengangkutan dan komunikasi, sektor keua‐ ngan, sewa dan  jasa perusahaan serta sektor  jasa‐jasa,  sehingga  besar  kemungkinan  kota  yogyakarta  dapat  mencapai  visi  yang  telah  ditetapkannya.  kabupaten  sleman  memiliki  visi  untuk  mewujudkan masyarakat yang maju dan ter‐ cukupi kebutuhan lahiriah dan batiniah yang  ditandai  dengan  meningkatnya  kualitas  hi‐ dup dan kehidupan masyarakatnya, sedang‐ kan  potensi  unggulan  yang  dimiliki  adalah  sektor industri pengolahan, sektor bangunan,  sektor  pengangkutan  dan  komunikasi  serta  sektor keuangan, sewa dan  jasa perusahaan.  terlihat  bahwa  tidak  ada  keterkaitan  antara  visi  dan  potensi,  karena  indikator  capaian  identifikasi sektor unggulan... (restiatun)  91 visi kabupaten sleman tersebut tidak jelas.  mewujudkan  peningkatan  pelayanan  masyarakat  melalui  pelaksanaan  pemba‐ ngunan  sarana  dan  prasarana  bidang  bina  marga, cipta karya, dan daerah adalah visi  kabupaten  bantul,  sedangkan  salah  satu  misinya  adalah  mendukung  peningkatan  pelayanan masyarakat pada sektor kesehatan,  pendidikan,  perdagangan  dan  peningkatan  kinerja  aparatur  pemerintah  di  kabupaten  bantul.  terdapat  kesesuaian  antara  visi  dan  misi  kabupaten  bantul  tersebut  dengan  po‐ tensi  unggulan  daerahnya,  yakni  sektor  ba‐ ngunan,  sektor  pengangkutan  dan  komuni‐ kasi  serta  sektor  jasa‐jasa,  sehingga  visi  ka‐ bupaten  bantul  tersebut  kemungkinan  akan  dapat dicapai.  beberapa  misi  kabupaten  kulon  progo  yang  ditetapkan  untuk  mencapai  visi  mem‐ bangun  kulon  progo  dalam  kebersamaan  menuju  penguatan  ekonomi  lokal  berbasis  ekonomi kerakyatan demi mewujudkan ma‐ syarakat  kulon  progo  yang  mandiri,  aman,  sejahtera,  dinamis  berlandaskan  iman  dan  taqwa adalah mengembangkan perekonomi‐ an rakyat terutama agribisnis dan pariwisata  serta  memfasilitasi  pengembangan  dunia  usaha  dan  investasi  daerah.  karena  misi  tersebut  didukung  oleh  potensi  unggulan  daerah,  yakni    sektor  pertanian  dan  sektor  pengangkutan  dan  komunikasi,  maka  diha‐ rapkan pemerintah daerah kabupaten kulon  progo dapat mencapai visinya.  kabupaten  gunung  kidul  memiliki  visi  menjadi  pemerintah  yang  baik,  bersih  dan  responsiv  untuk  mendukung  terwujudnya  masyarakat mandiri dan kompetitif. terlihat  bahwa  visi  tersebut  dan  juga  misi  seperti  yang  tersebut  di  atas  tidak  jelas  serta  tidak  didukung dengan potensi unggulan daerah‐ nya, karena potensi unggulan gunung kidul  adalah  sektor  pertanian,  sektor  pertamba‐ ngan dan penggalian, sektor bangunan, serta  sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi.  analisis tipologi daerah  analisis  tipologi  daerah  digunakan  untuk  mengetahui  posisi  perekonomian  masing‐ masing  kabupaten  di  provinsi  diy,  ditinjau  dari  tingkat  pertumbuhan  dan  pendapatan  perkapitanya. menurut tipologi daerah, dae‐ rah  dibagi  menjadi  empat  klasifikasi,  yaitu:  daerah cepat maju dan cepat  tumbuh  (high  growth and high  income), daerah maju  tetapi  tertekan (high income but low growth), daerah  berkembang cepat (high growth but  low  inco‐ me) dan daerah relatif tertinggal (low growth  and  low  income)(syafrizal,  1997:  27‐38).  ada‐ pun kriteria yang digunakan untuk mengkla‐ sifikasikannya  adalah  sebagai  berikut:  (1)  daerah cepat maju dan cepat tumbuh adalah  daerah  yang  memiliki  tingkat  pertumbuhan  ekonomi  dan  pendapatan  perkapita  yang  lebih  tinggi  dibandingkan  dengan  provinsi  diy,  (2) daerah maju  tetapi  tertekan adalah  daerah yang memiliki pendapatan perkapita  lebih tinggi tetapi tingkat pertumbuhan eko‐ nominya lebih rendah dibandingkan dengan  provinsi  diy,  (3)  daerah  berkembang  cepat  adalah daerah yang memilki tingkat pertum‐ buhan  ekonomi  lebih  tinggi  tetapi  tingkat  pendapatan  perkapita  lebih  rendah  diban‐ dingkan  dengan  provinsi  diy,  (4)  daerah  relatif  tertinggal  adalah  daerah  yang  memi‐ liki  tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi dan pen‐ dapatan perkapita leih rendah dibandingkan  dengan  provinsi  diy.  hasil  analisis  tipologi  daerah  kabupaten/  kota  di  provinsi  diy  disajikan pada lampiran gambar l1.   daerah cepat maju dan cepat tumbuh.  kota yogyakarta sebagai daerah yang berada  pada klasifikasi daerah cepat maju dan cepat  tumbuh memiliki rata‐rata pertumbuhan eko‐ nomi  dan  rata‐rata  pendapatan  perkapita  yang lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan pro‐ vinsi  diy.  pada  periode  tahun  1993‐2003,  jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 77 ‐ 98 92  rata‐rata  tingkat  pertumbuhan  ekonominya  sebesar  4,05  persen  dan  tingkat  pendapatan  perkapita sebesar rp.3.545.057,00. sedangkan  rata‐rata tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi pro‐ vinsi diy adalah 2,15 persen sementara ting‐ kat pendapatan perkapita rp.1.733.746,00.  daerah maju tetapi tertekan. tidak ada  satu  kabupaten  pun  yang  termasuk  dalam  klasifikasi daerah maju tetapi tertekan ini.  daerah  berkembang  cepat.  kabupaten  sleman  dan  gunung  kidul  sebagai  daerah  yang  berada  pada  klasifikasi  daerah  cepat  maju  dan  cepat  tumbuh  memiliki  rata‐rata  pertumbuhan  ekonomi  lebih  tinggi  tetapi  rata‐rata  pendapatan  perkapita  yang  lebih  rendah  dibandingkan  dengan  provinsi  diy.  pada periode tahun 1993‐2003, sleman memi‐ liki  rata‐rata  tingkat  pertumbuhan  ekonomi  sebesar  2,38  persen  dan  tingkat  pendapatan  perkapita sebesar rp.1.616.823,00. sedangkan  tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi gunung kidul  sebesar  2,56  persen  dan  tingkat  pendapatan  perkapita rp.1.355.608,00.  daerah  relatif  tertinggal.  kabupaten  bantul dan kulon progo sebagai daerah yang  berada pada klasifikasi daerah relatif memi‐ liki rata‐rata pertumbuhan ekonomi dan rata‐ rata pendapatan perkapita yang lebih rendah  dibandingkan dengan provinsi diy. pada pe‐ riode tahun 1993‐2003, kulon progo memiliki  rata‐rata tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi sebe‐ sar ‐0,20 persen dan tingkat pendapatan per‐ kapita  sebesar  rp.1.053.440,00.  sedangkan  tingkat   pertumbuhan ekonomi bantul sebe‐ sar  1,92  persen  dan  tingkat  pendapatan  perkapita rp.1.097.800,00.  indeks gravitasi  analisis gravitasi dan model interaksi ruang  digunakan untuk mengetahui wilayah mana  yang berpotensi kuat dalam pengembangan‐ nya. dengan penentuan pusat pertumbuhan  yang tepat, yakni wilayah dengan potensi pa‐ ling kuat, diharapkan akan  terjadi perembe‐ tan pertumbuhan bagi daerah‐daerah di seki‐ tarnya  serta  terjadi  percepatan  dan  pemera‐ taan hasil‐hasil pembangunan. untuk provin‐ si diy, pusat pertumbuhan adalah kota yog‐ yakarta sebagai ibukota provinsi, di samping  karena  kota  yogyakarta  termasuk  dalam  klasifikasi  daerah  cepat  tumbuh  dan  cepat  berkembang.  agar  terjadi  percepatan  per‐ tumbuhan maka perlu dibangun suatu pusat  pertumbuhan  baru,  yaitu  wilayah  yang  me‐ miliki  potensi  paling  kuat.  adapun  hasil  analisis  gravitasi  dan model  interaksi  ruang  untuk  provinsi  diy  tampak  pada  lampiran  tabel l2.  dari hasil perhitungan di atas dapat dili‐ hat bahwa interaksi paling kuat terjadi antara  kota  yogyakarta  dan  kabupaten  sleman,  karena  interaksi  kedua  wilayah  tersebut  memiliki  rata‐rata  nilai  indeks  gravitasi  ter‐ tinggi.  hal  ini  menunjukkan  bahwa  daerah  yang  potensial  untuk  dikembangkan  adalah  kota yogyakarta sebagai pusat kota dan sle‐ man  sebagai  desa  atau  kota  yogyakarta  sebagai pusat kegiatan ekonomi dan sleman  sebagai  daerah  penyangga/daerah  pemuki‐ man.  analisis ketimpangan antardaerah  adanya  heterogenitas  dan  beragamnya  ka‐ rakteristik suatu wilayah menyebabkan ada‐ nya kecenderungan  terjadi ketimpangan an‐ tardaerah  dan  antarsektor  ekonomi  suatu  daerah.  besar  kecilnya  ketimpangan  pdrb  perkapita  antarkabupaten/kota  memberikan  gambaran  tentang  kondisi  dan  perkemba‐ ngan pembangunan di provinsi daerah  isti‐ mewa yogyakarta. ketimpangan pembangu‐ nan antarkabupaten/kota yang terjadi di pro‐ vinsi diy selama  tahun 1993‐2003 dianalisis  dengan  indeks  williamson  dan  indeks  en‐ thropi theil. angka, baik indeks williamson  identifikasi sektor unggulan... (restiatun)  93 dan  indeks  enthropi  theil,  yang  semakin  kecil  atau  mendekati  nol  menunjukkan  ke‐ timpangan  yang  semakin  kecil  atau  dengan  kata  lain  makin  merata,  dan  bila  semakin  jauh  dari  nol  menunjukkan  ketimpangan  yang semakin lebar. meskipun kedua indeks  sama‐sama mengukur masalah ketimpangan,  tetapi indeks enthropi theil memiliki kelebi‐ han  dibanding  indeks  williamson  karena  indeks  ini  memungkinkan  kita  untuk  mem‐ buat perbandingan selama kurun waktu ter‐ tentu,  juga  menyediakan  ukuran  ketimpa‐ ngan  secara  rinci  dalam  sub‐unit  geografis  yang lebih kecil. hal ini akan berguna untuk  menganalisis  kecenderungan  konsentrasi  geografis selama periode waktu tertentu dan  memberikan gambaran yang  lebih rinci me‐ ngenai  ketimpangan  spasial.  (kuncoro,  2004:   134).  hasil  perhitungan  indeks  williamson  dan  grafiknya  disajikan  dalam  lampiran  tabel l3 dan gambar l2.  dilihat dari hasil perhitungan dan grafik  indeks  williamson  serta  indeks  enthropi  theil menunjukkan bahwa ketimpangan an‐ tarkabupaten/kota  di  provinsi  diy  selama  tahun 1993‐2003 cenderung meningkat. nilai  indeks williamson pada  tahun 1993 sebesar  0,36 yang naik menjadi 0,57 pada tahun 2003  dengan  rata‐rata  selama  pengamatan  0,483.  nilai  indeks  enthropi theil  juga  menunjuk‐ kan  hal  yang  sama,  bahwa  terjadi  kenaikan  ketimpangan  di  provinsi  diy  selama  tahun  1993‐2003 (lampiran tabel l4 dan gambar l3).  tahun  1993  nilai  indeks  enthropi  theil  adalah  0,027  sedangkan  tahun  2003  sebesar  0,172 dengan nilai rata‐rata 0,112. pada tahun  1998,  indeks  ketimpangan  provinsi  diy  cenderung  turun  dari  tahun  1997  yang  sebesar 0,53 menjadi 0,47, tetapi pada tahun  1999 meningkat lagi menjadi 0,48. penurunan  ketimpangan pada tahun 1998 ini disebabkan  oleh krisis yang menimpa indonesia, di mana  provinsi diy juga merasakan imbasnya. dae‐ rah  yang  terkena  dampak  krisis  umumnya  adalah  daerah  perkotaan  sedangkan  daerah  non  perkotaan  tidak  terkena  dampak  krisis  sebesar  daerah  perkotaan  sehingga  menye‐ babkan penurunan ketimpangan pada tahun  1998.  kenaikan  ketimpangan  di  provinsi  diy  selama  periode  tahun  1993‐2003  ini  juga  dapat dilihat dari rasio pendapatan perkapita  tertinggi dan pendapatan perkapita terendah  seperti tampak dalam lampiran tabel l5.  jika dilihat dari tabel rasio tersebut, terli‐ hat  bahwa  kesenjangan  pendapatan  perka‐ pita di provinsi diy pada periode 1993‐2003  selalu  meningkat,  bahkan  meskipun  berda‐ sarkan  nilai  indeks  williamson  dan  indeks  theil  pada  tahun  1998  mengalami  penuru‐ nan,  tetapi rasio pendapatan  tertinggi‐teren‐ dah  tidak  menunjukkan  hal  serupa.  hal  ini  disebabkan  kabupaten  kulon  progo  menga‐ lami keterpurukan ekonomi pascakrisis eko‐ nomi  dan  waktu  yang  dibutuhkan  dalam  proses recovery sangat lama.  kesimpulan  dari  seluruh  hasil  analisis  di  atas  dapat  di‐ simpulkan  beberapa  hal  seperti  tersebut  di  bawah ini:  (1) masalah fundamental yang dihadapi oleh  pemerintah provinsi diy adalah kemiskinan  dan  ketimpangan,  di  mana  ada  kecen‐ derungan bahwa ketimpangan ini meningkat  sepanjang  waktu.  ada  daerah  yang  relatif  sangat kaya (kota yogyakarta) dan ada dae‐ rah  yang  relatif  miskin  (kabupaten  kulon  progo).  peningkatan  ketimpangan  ini  dise‐ babkan  oleh  pola  pembangunan  yang  ber‐ beda  antardaerah.  beberapa  daerah  di  pro‐ vinsi diy memiliki visi yang tidak jelas, baik  indikator  maupun  waktu  pencapaianya,  di  samping seringkali visi daerah tersebut tidak  jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 77 ‐ 98 94  didukung  oleh  potensi  yang  dimiliki  oleh  daerah,   (2)  untuk  melihat  potensi  unggulan  yang  dimiliki  masing‐masing  daerah  dilakukan  analisis  dengan  menggunakan  analisis  lq  (location quotient).   (3)  berdasarkan  tipologi  daerah,  kabupa‐ ten/kota di provinsi diy dapat diklasifikasi‐ kan sebagai berikut. kota yogyakarta masuk  dalam  klasifikasi  daerah  cepat  maju  dan  cepat  tumbuh,  sleman  dan  gunung  kidul  termasuk  dalam  klasifikasi  daerah  berkem‐ bang cepat sedangkan yang termasuk dalam  klasifikasi  daerah  relatif  tertinggal  adalah  bantul dan kulon progo,   (4) dari hasil analisis indeks williamson dan  indeks enthropi theil, keduanya menunjuk‐ kan  trend  yang  sama,  yaitu  bahwa  di  pro‐ vinsi  diy  terjadi  kecenderungan  kenaikan  ketimpangan,  meskipun  hasil  perhitungan  kedua  indeks  tersebut  juga  sama‐sama  me‐ nunjukkan  terjadinya  penurunan  ketimpa‐ ngan  pada  tahun  1998,  tetapi  mulai  tahun  1999  ketimpangan  ini  kemudian  meningkat  terus.  penurunan  ketimpangan  pada  tahun  1998 ini diakibatkan oleh dampak krisis yang  lebih berimbas di daerah perkotaan sehingga  ketimpangan menurun,   (5)  hasil  perhitungan  rasio  pendapatan  perkapita tertinggi dan terendah antardaerah  di  provinsi  diy  menunjukkan  tren  pening‐ katan. bahkan ketika pada tahun 1998, berda‐ sarkan hasil perhitungan  indeks williamson  dan indeks theil terjadi penurunan ketimpa‐ ngan,  rasio  pendapatan  perkapita  ini  terus  meningkat. hal ini disebabkan karena adanya  beberapa  kelompok  masyarakat  yang  justru  diuntungkan dengan adanya krisis, misalnya  karena keuntungan dari  jual  beli  dolar atau  peningkatan ekspor akibat depresiasi rupiah,  sementara sebagian besar masyarakat menga‐ lami  penurunan  pendapatan  akibat  krisis  ekonomi  yang  terjadi.  hal  inilah  yang  me‐ nyebabkan terjadinya peningkatan rasio pen‐ dapatan perkapita di provinsi diy.  dari kesimpulan di atas, maka beberapa  saran  yang  dapat  diajukan  adalah  sebagai  berikut:   (1) dalam penyusunan visi dan misi daerah,  pemerintah  daerah  harus  memperhatikan  kesesuaian  antara  visi/misi  dengan  potensi  yang dimiliki oleh daerah,  juga harus terjadi  sinkronisasi  antara  pemerintah  kabupaten/  kota  dengan  pemerintah  provinsi.  di  sam‐ ping itu, dalam penyusunan visi/misi, peme‐ rintah daerah harus  jelas dalam menetapkan  indikator dan waktu pencapaiannya. hal  ini  sangat penting mengingat visi suatu daerah  merupakan  pedoman  implementasi  pemba‐ ngunan daerah.  (2)  untuk  mengurangi  ketimpangan  yang  terjadi  beberapa  hal  yang  dapat  dilakukan  adalah:  bagi pemerintah daerah provinsi diy: mem‐ berikan bantuan bagi daerah termiskin beru‐ pa pembiayaan kegiatan‐kegiatan yang dapat  meningkatkan kualitas sumberdaya manusia  (menciptakan human capital), karena pening‐ katan kualitas sumberdaya manusia ini akan  berdampak positif bagi pertumbuhan melalui  peningkatan penyerapan ide dan inovasi tek‐ nologi serta kewirausahaan. kegitan‐kegiatan  tersebut dapat berupa antara lain pendidikan  dan pelatihan serta peningkatan sarana pela‐ yanan kesehatan dan perbaikan gisi,   bagi  pemerintah  daerah  kabupaten  kulon  progo  (daerah  termiskin):  dengan  mening‐ katkan  sarana  transportasi,  terutama  trans‐ portasi antarkabupaten/kota  lain di provinsi  diy  untuk  memperlancar  arus  distribusi/  perdagangan barang dan jasa, karena dengan  perdagangan  perekonomian  daerah  terting‐ gal  dapat  “catch  up”  perekonomian  daerah  yang  relatif  lebih  maju/berkembang.  selain  itu, pemerintah daerah juga harus lebih mem‐ identifikasi sektor unggulan... (restiatun)  95 buka  diri  terhadap  investor,  karena  hanya  dengan  investasi  kegiatan  pembangunan  dapat  berjalan,  di  samping  investasi  dapat  memberikan  efek  multiplier  bagi  perekono‐ mian  daerah  sehingga  akan  terjadi  pening‐ katan tingkat kemakmuran masyarakat. oleh  sebab  itu  pemerintah  daerah  kabupaten  kulon progo harus dapat meningkatkan pro‐ mosi daerahnya untuk dapat menarik inves‐ tor  masuk.  atau  dengan  kata  lain,  peme‐ rintah daerah kabupaten kulon progo harus  mampu  menyiapkan  daerahnya  sedemikian  rupa  sehingga  kondusif  bagi  pertumbuhan  bisnis, perkembangan  investasi dan berdaya  saing tinggi agar terjadi peningkatan kesejah‐ teraan masyarakat.  daftar pustaka  ardani, amirudin. 1992. “analisis of region  growth  and  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jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 77 ‐ 98 96  lampiran  tabel l1. nilai rata‐rata lq kabupaten/kota di provinsi diy tahun 1993‐2003  lapangan usaha  kota  yogyakarta  kabupaten  sleman  kabupaten  bantul  kabupaten  kulon  progo  kabupaten  gunung  kidul  pertanian  0.048  0.727  1.094  1.470  1.821  pertambangan dan  penggalian  0.026  0.568  1.419  1.443  1.949  industri pengolahan  0.653  1.009  0.885  0.314  0.736  listrik, gas dan air  minum  1.846  0.944  0.676  0.677  0.319  bangunan  0.856  1.410  1.360  1.028  1.129  perdagangan, hotel dan  restoran  0.966  0.895  0.832  0.735  0.541  pengangkutan dan  komunikasi  1.808  1.292  1.087  1.303  1.223  keuangan, sewa dan  jasa perusahaan  1.836  1.357  0.720  0.769  0.469  jasa‐jasa  1.709  0.952  1.117  1.317  0.897        gambar l1. tipologi daerah kabupaten/kota di provinsi diy tahun 1993‐2003    identifikasi sektor unggulan... (restiatun)  97 tabel l2. indeks gravitasi dan model interaksi ruang provinsi diy tahun 1993‐2003  tahun  yogya‐sleman  yogya‐bantul  yogya‐kln progo  yogya‐gn kidul  1993  107.162  79.891  6.726  5.342  1994  125.331  93.035  7.424  6.193  1995  150.044  110.436  8.343  7.350  1996  176.850  128.315  9.551  8.561  1997  191.826  138.484  10.263  9.306  1998  156.332  111.662  7.847  7.672  1999  161.041  114.337  7.133  7.886  2000  172.866  122.053  7.533  8.393  2001  185.526  129.859  7.944  8.851  2002  201.051  139.278  8.423  9.331  2003  219.100  151.207  9.050  9.904  rerata  167.921  119.869  8.203  8.072  tabel l3. indeks williamson provinsi diy tahun 1993‐2003  tahun  1993  1994  1995  1996  1997  1998  1999  2000  2001  2002  2003  rerata  iw  0,36  0,39  0,45  0,50  0,53  0,47  0,48  0,50  0,52  0,54  0,57  0,483    gambar l2. grafik indeks williamson provinsi diy tahun 1993‐2003  tabel l4. indeks enthropi theil provinsi diy tahun 1993‐2003  tahun  1993  1994  1995  1996  1997  1998  1999  2000  2001  2002  2003  rerata  theil  0,027  0,055  0,095  0,138  0,162  0,096  0,096  0,113  0,130  0,149  0,172  0,112      jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 77 ‐ 98 98    gambar l3. grafik indeks theil provinsi diy tahun 1993‐2003  tabel l5. rasio pendapatan perkapita tertinggi‐terendah provinsi diy tahun 1993‐2003  tahun  1993  1994  1995  1996  1997  1998  1999  2000  2001  2002  2003  rasio  2,86  2,90  3,04  3,15  3,25  3,32  3,75  3,82  3,87  3,92  3,96    tabel l6. sektor unggulan masing‐masing daerah  kabupaten/kota  sektor unggulan  yogyakarta  sektor listrik, gas dan air minum, sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi, sektor  keuangan, sewa dan jasa perusahaan serta sektor jasa‐jasa  sleman  sektor industri pengolahan, sektor bangunan, sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi  serta sektor keuangan, sewa dan jasa perusahaan.  bantul  sektor pertanian, sektor pertambangan dan penggalian, sektor bangunan, sektor  pengangkutan dan komunikasi serta sektor jasa‐jasa.  kulon progo  sektor pertanian, sektor pertambangan dan penggalian, sektor bangunan, sektor  pengangkutan dan komunikasi serta sektor jasa‐jasa.  gunung kidul  sektor pertanian, sektor pertambangan dan penggalian, sektor bangunan, serta sektor  pengangkutan dan komunikasi  jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 23 no 2, october 2022 article type: research paper money demand in indonesia: does economic uncertainty matter? mahrus lutfi adi kurniawan1*, indanazulfa qurrota a’yun1, and winny perwithosuci2 abstract: since the global financial crisis of 2008, there has been a rise in economic uncertainty and money demand research. the money demand is vital in monetary policy, which has implications for the regional economy. this study aims to analyse the money demand in indonesia in the middle of global economic uncertainty, as well as the contribution of the study, which includes the economic and monetary policy uncertainty in a separate model for an enhanced money demand function. the study used a structural vector autoregressive (svar) approach. the results indicate that monetary demand is negatively affected by economic uncertainty. with the development of the financial sector, the impact of economic uncertainty and the unpredictability of us monetary policy drives people to be more cautious, resulting in a movement of "wealth" to other instruments. the current study implies that the monetary policy in the form of interest rates as the response to the global condition should consider monetary aggregates in terms of money demand as a precautionary measure to maintain money demand. the study revealed that stable money demand suggests inflation targeting as a monetary policy that can enhance monetary policy in the face of rising economic uncertainty. keywords: economic uncertainty; money demand; monetary policy; svar jel classification: d81; e41; e44 introduction the classical monetary theory suggests that price determination and a stable money demand function play a key role in establishing a long-run equilibrium relation among money, output prices, interest rates, and exchange rates. contrary to modern keynesian models of monetary policy, the role of monetary aggregates in relation to the level of output, prices, and interest rates can be determined without knowledge of the money supply. favara and giodani (2009) have proven that monetary aggregates have a substantial and persistent effect on output, prices, and interest rates. bahmani-oskooee et al. (2015) argue that the rising economic uncertainty affects the public’s decision to allocate their wealth among different assets. the literature on the impact of economic and monetary uncertainty on demand for money is poor, particularly in indonesia. friedman (1959) suggested that a stable money demand function would have a high degree of statistical precision in predicting the level of money deman. an augmented money demand model that incorporates some additional variables such as economic uncertainty. economic uncertainty affiliation: 1 department of economics, faculty of economics and business, universitas ahmad dahlan, special region of yogyakarta, indonesia 2 department of economics, faculty of economics and business, universitas muhammadiyah surakarta, central java, indonesia *correspondence: mahrus.kurniawan@ep.uad.ac.id this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v23i2.15876 citation: kurniawan, m. l. a., a’yun, i. q., & perwithosuci, w. (2022). money demand in indonesia: does economic uncertainty matter? jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 23(2), 231-244. article history received: 16 aug 2022 revised: 22 oct 2022 31 oct 2022 accepted: 07 nov 2022 https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?user=stojyiqaaaaj&hl=en&oi=ao https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?hl=en&user=tu9jelyaaaaj https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?hl=en&user=m2a0jtyaaaaj https://ep.uad.ac.id/ https://ep.uad.ac.id/ https://ep.uad.ac.id/ https://ep.uad.ac.id/ https://economics.ums.ac.id/en/ https://economics.ums.ac.id/en/ https://economics.ums.ac.id/en/ https://economics.ums.ac.id/en/ mailto:mahrus.kurniawan@ep.uad.ac.id http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/15876 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v23i2.15876&domain=pdf kurniawan, a’yun, & perwithosuci money demand in indonesia: does economic uncertainty matter? jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 232 represents an uncertain economic environment in which the public decides to hold less or more money based on risk aversion (bahmani-oskooee & baek, 2016). there has been a long debate regarding the role of money demand in the monetary policy framework. poole (1970) stated that the monetary authority can utilise money demand as a formula by applying monetary aggregates as a policy tool. in contrast, friedman (1976) argued that monetary aggregates do not play a direct role in policymaking. thus, emphasised the main target of monetary policy, namely actual output. the development of the literature indicates that one of the targets of monetary policy is the level of price stability. thus, the inflation-targeting policy can be applied to money targeting or monetary aggregates. according to duca and vanhoose (2004), the emergence of financial innovation would have an impact on the implementation of monetary policy. it implies that studies on money demand is essential to provide policy alternatives to the monetary authorities. the economic environment plays an essential role in the fluctuating patterns of money demand (narayan, 2007; favara & giodani, 2009; bahmani-oskooee et al., 2015; widodo, 2015). economic uncertainty will increase output volatility, affecting people's decisions to allocate their wealth (bahmani-oskooee & baek, 2016; choi & oh, 2003; hossain & arwatchanakarn, 2020). this study emphasises the economic uncertainty, which reflects people's behaviour about money holdings. if people anticipate high inflation rates due to conditions of economic uncertainty, they will hold more assets than cash. furthermore, they will hold more money if people anticipate output and currency instability due to uncertain employment opportunities. is the pattern of money demand in indonesia stable? there are different views regarding the stability of indonesia’s money demand. the implication is related to the policies that the monetary authorities can take as a monetary policy strategy. research by james (2005) analysed the demand for money in indonesia between 1983 and 2000 using a time trend as a proxy for financial liberalisation. the result demonstrates cointegration among money demand, income, and interest rates. the study employed the cusum, and cusumq approaches. the study revealed that the money demand model in indonesia is stable. the study by james (2005) supports the idea that monetary policy should be aimed at monetary aggregates. another research by kurniawan (2020) analysed money demand in indonesia using the cusum and cusumq approaches on the autoregressive distributed lag model (ardl) by utilising quarterly data from 2000 to 2019. the research showed that the money demand model in indonesia is unstable. it implied that kurniawan (2020) supports inflation targeting as a monetary policy in indonesia. according to the results of the above-mentioned studies, there are differing perspectives on whether monetary policy should employ money targeting or inflation targeting. using the indonesian economic uncertainty variable, it is possible to conduct research on money demand. small number of studies have examined the reaction of money demand to the variable of economic uncertainty, as well as the elasticity of money demand in relation to crisis shocks and economic uncertainty in the model. narayan (2007) developed a different technique by employing the johansen cointegration approach. this cointegration analysis indicates that the model exhibits long-run cointegration between kurniawan, a’yun, & perwithosuci money demand in indonesia: does economic uncertainty matter? jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 233 the money demand and its determinants in indonesia. meanwhile, the stability test utilising the hansen test methodology revealed that the indonesian money demand model is unstable. the results imply that narayan (2007) supports inflation targeting as a monetary policy by bank indonesia. therefore, alamsyah et al. (2001) argued that the monetary authority’s inflation-targeting strategy would have a direct impact on aggregate demand, which is consistent with preserving the supply side and sustainable economic growth. thus, implementing inflation targeting is a logical monetary policy and is accepted by a broad audience. ball (2012) stated that the money target policy can be applied if the money demand is stable. the stability of money demand is explained by velocity from m1 with gdp, where stable m1 growth will produce stable gdp growth. currently, money demand growth moves towards uncertain fluctuations, leading to money demand instability. in that way, the money-targeting policy is "difficult" to apply. the development of innovation in the financial sector creates the velocity of money to fluctuate more. furthermore, the challenges to the money demand become heavier with the uncertain condition of the economy. according to classical monetary theory, a stable money demand function has a long-run causal effect on the link between money growth and inflation. the global financial crisis has intensified economist's attention on economic uncertainty (baker et al., 2016). coupled with a trade war and pandemic, uncertainty in the future must be anticipated. pástor and veronesi (2013) contend that economic uncertainty causes a condition in which future trends and the direction of economic policy cannot be predicted with certainty. the current condition of economic uncertainty gradually has an adverse impact on economic growth or macroeconomic variables, including the demand for money. different authors conducted the impact of economic uncertainty to money demand, such as choi and oh (2003); bahmani-oskooee et al. (2015); bahmani-oskooee and baek (2016); bahmani-oskooee and nayeri (2017); hossain and arwatchanakarn (2020) a common conclusion that the rising uncertainty effect to money demand and alters its stability, which can change the view of monetary policy. in indonesia, the economic instability that arose during the 1998 crisis resurfaced with the global financial crisis of 2008 and has garnered attention ever since. setiastuti (2017) analyses the effect of global uncertainty on macroeconomic conditions in indonesia by using the time-varying bayesian structural var (tvp-bvar). the results showed that global uncertainty shocks cause declines in prices, interest rates, and the trade balance that have an effect on output. the shock of global uncertainty can harm economic conditions in indonesia. aswicahyono and hill (2014) analyse five countries, namely brazil, india, indonesia, south africa, and turkey, and conclude that these five countries face a twofold capital shock and a decline in trade. capital outflows in indonesia occurred after a shock, causing the indonesia stock exchange (idx) to decline, and triggering exchange rate depreciation. research by choi and oh (2003) analysed the demand for m1 money in the us. the research argued that during specific episodes, it was mainly due to a misspecification of the money demand function compared to economic behaviour. however, other events showed that output uncertainty negatively affected money demand. moreover, the uncertainty of the monetary sector has a positive effect. abid kurniawan, a’yun, & perwithosuci money demand in indonesia: does economic uncertainty matter? jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 234 (2020) stated that economic uncertainty impacts decreasing levels of investment and consumption and increases financial costs. figure 1 uncertainty era in indonesia source: data by baker et al. (2016) and own study bahmani-oskooee and satawatananon (2015) determined economic uncertainty with volatility in real gdp and monetary uncertainty with nominal monetary volatility, such as m2. the research tested the hypothesis of output and monetary uncertainty on money demand in thailand by employing a bound test approach. the result showed that both uncertainties affect shortand long-term money demand. both uncertainties (economic and monetary) have a negative effect on money demand in thailand in the short term, in contrast to the long term, where monetary uncertainty has a negative effect. however, economic uncertainty positively affects the long-term demand for money. the impact of economic uncertainty causes the public to be more careful so that the public will hold more cash. in contrast, monetary uncertainty causes a substitution effect from cash into assets. moreover, bahmani-oskooee and baek (2016) identified korea's economic and monetary uncertainty. the ardl approach shows that both uncertainties affect the short run, while only economic uncertainty affects the demand for money in the long term. economic uncertainty causes koreans to save less cash and replace it with assets. using the ardl approach, bahmani-oskooee and nayeri (2018) analysed the impact of policy uncertainty on the australian money demand. policy uncertainty has an effect in the short term but not in the long term. there is a significant asymmetric effect in the long run when a decrease in policy uncertainty will reduce the cash demand in australia. aweda et al. (2014) analysed the demand for money in the uk using the vecm approach. the study revealed that money demand is elastic to the production index in the long run and is inelastic to short-term interest rates and exchange rates. the global financial crisis had a negative effect on money demand in the uk. kurniawan, a’yun, & perwithosuci money demand in indonesia: does economic uncertainty matter? jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 235 there have been many studies on money demand in indonesia. in previous research, only standard variables were utilised to discuss the factors affecting money demand. however, few studies discuss the economic uncertainty of the money demand, especially in indonesia. the novelty of the study conducted augmented money demand by using economic uncertainty through utilising global economic policy uncertainty as a variable of economic uncertainty built by baker et al. (2016) and us monetary policy uncertainty from husted et al. (2017). the purpose of this study is to analyse the money demand in the global economic uncertainty that exists in indonesia. this study also examines the transmission and effects of shocks on macroeconomic variables on money demand. research method this study examines quarterly data in the form of time-series data from 2000q1 to 2021q4. the data generated from several research sources, such as indonesian economic and financial statistics, bank indonesia (seki-bi), the central statistics agency (bps), and global economic policy uncertainty as a variable of economic uncertainty developed by baker et al. (2016) and davis (2016). additionally, this study examines the money demand in a narrow sense (m1) and a broad sense (m2), utilising two variables on money demand to determine in detail the characteristics of money demand in indonesia. this study utilises income variables to obtain an idea related to the pattern of income to the demand for money in indonesia with an increase in income will increase the acceleration of transactions by itself will increase the money demand (narayan, 2007). cpi has an inverse relationship with income to money demand (prawoto, 2016). the higher the cpi level, the public will prefer to hold more assets than cash. the interest rate variable is a surrogate for the opportunity to hold money conducted based on narayan’s analysis (narayan, 2007). table 1 definition of variables proxy variables description symbol source money demand for broad money money demand at the broad definition bm bank indonesia real income as a transaction in demand for money using the variable gdp inc bank indonesia inflation utilising quarterly data inf bank indonesia interest rate a proxy from an opportunity to hold money r bank indonesia exchange rate nominal exchange rate of rupiah against the us dollar exc bank indonesia economic uncertainty economic uncertainty eu baker et al. (2016) monetary policy uncertainty the us monetary economic policy uncertainty mpu husted et al. (2017) there is an a priori link between exchange rates and money demand. a rise in the real exchange rate, which implies a depreciation of the domestic currency, will boost the value of foreign assets denominated in the domestic currency (narayan, 2007). as this is regarded a gain in wealth, depreciation should have a favourable impact on the money kurniawan, a’yun, & perwithosuci money demand in indonesia: does economic uncertainty matter? jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 236 demand. however, a devaluation can spark speculation that the demand for domestic currency will decrease because the public prefers to hold foreign money. consequently, depreciation will reduce the need for money, which means that depreciation will have a negative effect on the demand for money (narayan, 2007). using economic uncertainty and policy variables, the author utilises the calculations proposed by baker et al. (2016) and davis (2016) to see their effect on the demand for money in indonesia. the details of the data are available in table 1. this study focuses on the interrelationship between macroeconomic variables such as gdp as a proxy for income, inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, economic uncertainty, and money demand with a structural vector autoregressive (svar) approach. this method examines the transmission and effects of shocks on macroeconomic variables on money demand. according to bacchiocchi and fanelli (2015), the svar method is used for policy analysis and the response of a variable to shocks, because it is recognised that structural shocks must be identified for the simulation of a policy. magnusson and mavroeidis (2014) revealed that structural shifts in macroeconomics might be constructively utilised to identify structural relationships that are invariants through time. this study focuses on the demand for money and its environment, such as a country's macroeconomic conditions. given the importance of money demand as a transaction tool, macroeconomic variables, economic uncertainty, and shocks will impact the overall demand for money because it can affect people's purchasing power. the contribution of this research is to provide an overview of the importance of monetary policy with a quantitative approach (money demand) and the response to money demand based on macroeconomic variables and their shocks. the svar approach is employed for policy analysis. the svar model was developed based on the theoretical basis and previous research. impulse response analysis and forecast error variance decomposition are applied to describe the empirical findings in the study. according to arwatchanakarn (2017), the svar model is more exciting and profitable than the var model because it may employ multiple economic theories and previous research to predict the response of a variable when other variables experience shocks. the formula is as follows: 𝐵𝑀 = 𝑓(𝐼𝑛𝑐, 𝐼𝑛𝑓, 𝑟, 𝐸𝑥𝑐, 𝐸𝑢, 𝑀𝑝𝑢) where bm is money demand function, inc as income proxy for the gdp, inf as inflation, r as domestic interest rate, exc as the exchange rate rupiah to dollar, eu as economic uncertainty conducted by baker et al. (2016) and mpu as the uncertainty of us monetary policy conduct by husted et al. (2017). assuming that 𝑋1,𝑡 is a vector of 𝜂1, which is the money demand variable, and 𝑋2,𝑡 vector of 𝜂2 is the macroeconomic variable and economic uncertainty (gdp as a proxy of income, inflation, interest rate, exchange rate, economic and us monetary policy uncertainity) at time t. we assume that x1, t is an exogenous variable to macroeconomic variables, both dynamic relationships and structural shocks in the vector that can affect the value of 𝑋1,𝑡+𝑘 for every k > 0. the equation of the svar, as proposed by carrillo et al. (2020), is written as follows: 𝐴−1𝑋𝑡 = 𝐶 + ∑ 𝐵ℓ𝑋𝑡−ℓ + 𝜐𝑡 𝑝 ℓ=1 (1) kurniawan, a’yun, & perwithosuci money demand in indonesia: does economic uncertainty matter? jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 237 where c is n x 1, which is a constant vector.. 𝐴−1 is n x n which is used as a matrix of contemporary structural relationships between variables in the model, 𝐵ℓ is a persistent matrix, and 𝜐𝑡 is a vector of structural innovations with an average equal to zero, not containing autocorrelation and the same variance-covariance matrix. with e{𝜐𝑡 , 𝜐𝑡}=ι𝑛 .. the model with the derivative will produce a version of the multiplication on system 𝐴, which becomes: 𝑋𝑡 = �̃� + ∑ �̃�ℓ𝑋𝑡−ℓ + 𝜉𝑡 𝑝 ℓ=1 (2) where �̃� ≡ 𝐴𝐶 , �̃� ≡ 𝐴𝐵 dan 𝜉𝑡 ≡ 𝐴𝜐𝑡 , which are vector forms derived from the innovation form with the same variance-covariance matrix for e{ 𝜉𝑡 ,𝜉𝑡 }=𝛀. therefore, matrix a follows 𝐴𝐴′ = 𝛀. to fulfill the exogenous block, the matrix 𝐴 and �̃�ℓ are matrices with blocks equal to zero, so they can be written as follows: 𝐴 ≡ [ 𝐴𝑧𝑧 0 𝐴𝑧𝑦 𝐴𝑦𝑦 ] 𝑎𝑛𝑑 �̃�ℓ ≡ [ �̃�𝑧𝑧,ℓ 0 �̃�𝑧𝑦,ℓ �̃�𝑦𝑦,ℓ ] (3) where 𝐴𝑧𝑧 represents the impact of shocks from variables on the system, 𝐴𝑧𝑦 indicates the effects of macroeconomic variables, and 𝐴𝑦𝑦 represents the impact of shocks on macroeconomic variables and economic uncertainty. likewise, �̃�𝑧𝑧,ℓ is the effect of the lagged ℓ variable on the variable when it occurs, �̃�𝑧𝑦,ℓ is the effect of the current macroeconomic variable, and �̃�𝑦𝑦,ℓ is the effect of the lagged ℓ macroeconomic variable and the current macroeconomic variable. result and discussion all variables have mean values that are superior to their standard deviations, indicating that all variables have high variability. the skewness value in the data indicates the slope of the data. the data’s skewness value reveals the slope of the data. if the skewness value is positive, it indicates that the data has a slpe to the right, and if it is negative, it shows that the data has a slope to the left. table 2 shows only broad money (bm) and income (inc) variables with a negative skewness value. both variables are skewed to the left, whilst the remaining variables have a positive skewness value. table 2 descriptive analysis bm inc inf r exc eu mpu mean 14.828 14.440 5.797 6.959 9.306 0.163 4.704 maximum 15.804 14.852 17.110 12.750 9.703 0.877 5.853 minimum 13.685 13.942 1.330 3.500 9.022 0.000 3.854 std dev 0.663 0.285 3.351 2.103 0.203 0.153 0.414 skewness -0.248 -0.173 1.398 0.730 0.273 1.790 0.210 kurtosis 1.722 1.713 5.171 3.653 1.444 8.354 2.956 obs 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 kurniawan, a’yun, & perwithosuci money demand in indonesia: does economic uncertainty matter? jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 238 the kurtosis value is utilised to identify whether the data is normally distributed or not. the data are typically distributed if the kurtosis value is at number 3 or around number 3. furthermore, if the value is above three, the data distribution is at a high peak. then, if the kurtosis is below three, it means that the data distribution is flat. the variables with a kurtosis value of more than three are inflation, interest rate, and exchange rate. it means that the data distribution is at a high peak. the other variables with a kurtosis value below 3 mean that the data distribution is flat. all variables have the same observation value, as many as 75. this study applies the unit root test phillips-perron (pp) approach to test the presence of non-stationary stochastic in time-series data. the use of pp is also to eliminate the problem of heteroscedasticity in the data. the unit root test applies "trend and intercept" as a unit root test with "trend" and applies "intercept" as a unit root test with "no trend". broad money (bm), real income (inc), inflation (inf), interest rate (r), exchange rate (exc), uncertainty index (eu), and monetary policy uncertainty (mpu) index are stationary at the first difference i( 1) based on the unit root test results of the pp approach. only inflation (inf), uncertainty index (eu), and monetary policy uncertainty (mpu) variables are stationary in the first difference. the unit root test does not apply second difference i(2) because it can produce false regressions. moreover, the usage of pp eliminates the problem of heteroscedasticity in the data. the unit root test applies “trend and intercept” as a unit root test with “trend” and applies “intercept” as a unit root test with “no trend”. broad money (bm), real income (inc), inflation (inf), interest rate i, exchange rate (exc), uncertainty index (eu), and monetary policy uncertainty (mpu) index are stationary at the first difference i(1) based on the unit root test results of the pp approach. only inflation (inf), uncertainty index (eu), and monetary policy uncertainty (mpu) are stationary in the first difference. the unit root test does not apply second difference i(2) because it can produce false regressions. table 3 unit root test variables philips-perron intercept trend & intercept level bm 6.137 0.813 inc 1.198 -3.081 inf -2.636* -3.679** r -1.490 -3.020 exc -1.270 -2.417 eu -5.450*** -6.476*** mpu -4.351 -4.680*** first difference bm -9.902*** -13.168*** inc -11.935*** -13.610*** inf -7.988*** -7.941*** r -4.618*** -4.519*** exc -11.713*** -11.661*** eu -17.114*** -17.067*** mpu -18.281*** -18.300*** note: the ***, **, and * indicate the statistically significant level at 1%, 5%, and 10%, respectively. kurniawan, a’yun, & perwithosuci money demand in indonesia: does economic uncertainty matter? jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 239 money demand response to shocks contrary to prior study by narayan (2007) and kurniawan (2020) in indonesia, income positively has a beneficial effect on money demand. there are varying approaches to analysing the effect of income on money deman, which account for the disparity. the findings show the inconsistency of economies of scale in holding money. however, this does not happen by accident. along with the development of financial innovation, the community is presented with numerous options for storing wealth other than in the form of money, such as assets and shares that can be utilised by the public as an alternative portfolio storage option. this finding is in line with baharumshah et al. (2009). this is not much different and is in line with expectations when there is a shock to exchange rate volatility. shocks or an increase in the exchange rate will reduce the demand for money, which means that if the rupiah depreciates, the demand for holding money will decrease, and this is in line with research by narayan (2007), the depreciation of the domestic currency will have a more significant impact on the demand for foreign currency than holding the domestic currency. a negative response to the money demand occurs when there is a shock to the inflation variable. the increase in the price of commodities causes people to reduce their consumption and invest their wealth in other assets or portfolios. boonekamp (1978) suggest that using inflation as a variable and its relationship to money demand is prone to inaccurate forecasts because it can increase uncertainty about future prices. as uncertainty about future prices increases, it will affect the money demand. in addition to influencing the money demand, it will also increase prudence, thereby increasing the demand for portfolios or other assets. a positive response is shown in demand for money when there is a shock to the domestic interest rate. this is inversely proportional to the theory that interest rate policy aims to reduce the level of money demand. this finding is in line with research by favara and giordani (2009), which shows that monetary aggregate responds positively to the federal fund rate for a prolonged period. this reflects the endogenous response of a policy known as the taylor rule that can increase inflation and output after a shock to the monetary aggregate. uncertainty as a shock effect the attention of researchers is currently increasing on conditions of economic uncertainty. economic uncertainty can reflect people's propensity to hoard money. uncertainty in the study consists of two indices: economic uncertainty, an index developed by baker et al. (2016), and the us monetary uncertainty policy index developed by husted et al. (2017). the use of the us monetary uncertainty policy cannot be separated from the fact that several monetary policies in indonesia are closely related to us policy. thus, the utilisation of us mpu is an anticipatory measure of global monetary uncertainty. the results of the irf when eu and mpu as a shock effect indicate that money demand responds negatively to eu and positively to mpu. the impact of economic uncertainty causes people to be more careful so that people will shift their "wealth" to other kurniawan, a’yun, & perwithosuci money demand in indonesia: does economic uncertainty matter? jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 240 instruments besides money, such as assets, etc. meanwhile, monetary uncertainty has led to increased demand for money. the negative response to eu turmoil is in line with research by bahmani-oskooee and satawatananon (2015), bahmani-oskooee and baek (2016), and aweda et al. (2014). the response of variable income, interest rates, and exchange rates tend to move negatively when there is a shock from eu and mpu. when the domestic exchange rate depreciates, it can increase demand for foreign exchange rates that are "more resistant" to shocks from economic uncertainty than the domestic currency. this condition can trigger a movement in the depreciation of the domestic exchange rate towards the worse. the results align with narayan's (2007) related exchange rate depreciation. the response of the inflation variable related to the eu and mpu shocks shows a fluctuating response, where prices will increase. when the eu and mpu shock gradually get longer, people are "forced" to accept the new price (price increase). figure 2 impulse response function (with 95% error bands). the impulse responses are computed using lag 6 for var models. other findings the irf method shows more comprehensive results, such as subdued inflation fluctuations with an upward trend in interest rates. in the last two years, the pandemic has caused a crisis that has kept the increase in interest rates at a prudent level. likewise, income is responded to in a negative direction by interest rates. income fluctuation can cause people's purchasing power to fall, which is responded to by lowering interest rates to maintain people's purchasing power. this demonstrates that monetary policy, through the use of interest rates, may normalise and boost the domestic economy. it is more adaptive in its implementation, djusting to domestic economic situations in light of the global economy. other results are shown in the negative income response when there is a shock to inflation and exchange rates. it shows that shocks to inflation and exchange rates can reduce people's purchasing power. maintaining inflation and exchange rate stability can maintain people's purchasing power. similarly, when there is a shock in the currency rate, kurniawan, a’yun, & perwithosuci money demand in indonesia: does economic uncertainty matter? jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 241 the interest rate will increase. this is intended to enhance the rupiah exchange rate relative to foreign currencies. forecast error of variance the forecast error of variance (fev) presented in the table illustrates the importance of a shock. fev, apart from money demand, is dominated on average by income with a time horizon of 10th, 25th, and 50th, which is 6,817, 13,536, and 16,259. the difference in the effect of the income variable with a longer time horizon shows a significant increase from 6,817 on the 10th to 13,536 on the 25th. next is inflation, which strongly influences income, with an average of 3,283 on the 10th, increasing over the 25th time horizon to 6,182 and 6,474 on the 50th time horizon. table 4 forecast error of variance dynamic horizon bm inc inf exc r eu mpu average forecast 10th 79.549 6.817 3.283 2.087 3.674 2.972 1.618 25th 64.412 13.536 6.182 5.350 3.552 5.604 1.364 50th 61.092 16.259 6.474 6.577 2.651 5.957 0.989 variable shock increases when a longer time horizon is utilised. however, there are several decreasing variables domination. for example, the interest rates on the 25th horizon, which is 3,552, decline to 2,651 on the 50th time horizon. the uncertainty of the us monetary economic policy shows a decrease in its dominance in the model from 1,618 on the ten-time horizon to 1.364 and 0.989. the difference in economic uncertainty has increased in dominance from 2,972 to 5,604 on the 25th and 5,957 on the 50th time horizon. demand for money and the uncertainty this section presents a model with three variables in structural shocks. each variable is a representation of a moving average vector. the equation in the model is ∆𝑧𝑡 = 𝐶(𝐿)𝑢𝑡 where it is the endogenous vector ∆𝑧𝑡 variable, cl is the matrix of the polynomial lag and 𝑢𝑡 is the vector of the identified structural shocks. the three variables formed in the model are money demand (bm), economic uncertainty (eu), and us monetary policy uncertainty (mpu). this section aims to identify further the structural shocks of the effect of economic uncertainty (eu and mpu) on money demand in indonesia. the fundamental difference from the previous model is in the model with three variables using a lag order of 5. the results showed that there was no difference in the previous model and supported the results of research by bahmani-oskooee and satawatananon (2015), bahmani-oskooee and baek (2016), and aweda et al. (2014). in times of economic instability and monetary policy uncertainty in the united states, the demand for money demonstrated a negative response. with the growth of the financial sector, the effects of economic uncertainty and the unpredictability of us monetary policy cause people to be more cautious, resulting in a shift of "wealth" from money to other instruments, such as assets, etc. there is a substitution effect that occurs when there is a shock or increase in economic uncertainty (eu and mpu) from the role of holding money to other financial kurniawan, a’yun, & perwithosuci money demand in indonesia: does economic uncertainty matter? jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 242 instruments such as assets, shares, etc. figure 3 shows that economic uncertainty (eu) is more dominant than us monetary policy uncertainty (mpu) based on fev results. figure 3 impulse response function (with 95% error bands). the impulse responses are computed using lag 5 for var models and forecast error of variance. conclusion this study aims to analyse money demand under economic uncertainty in indonesia. this study focuses on the relationship between macroeconomic variables such as gdp as a proxy of income, inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, economic uncertainty, and money demand by employing the structural vector autoregressive (svar) approach. this method is used to examine the transmission and the effect of macroeconomics variable shock of money demand. this study utilises quarterly data from time-series data from 2000q1 to 2021q4. the results revealed the sensitivity of money demand to income changes, prices, and exchange rate volatility. the positive reaction to changes in interest rates indicates that the structure of money demand in indonesia closely resembles the taylor rule policy. the taylor rule can increase inflation and output after a shock to the monetary aggregate or money demand. the negative response showed by the money demand when there is economic uncertainty and uncertainty in the us monetary policy. due to economic and us monetary policy instability, the expansion of the financial sector altered the behaviour kurniawan, a’yun, & perwithosuci money demand in indonesia: does economic uncertainty matter? jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 243 of individuals, who became more concerned about diversifying their holdings. this study implies that the monetary policy in the form of interest rate as the response to the global condition should consider the monetary aggregates in terms of money demand as an anticipatory step in maintaining money demand. a major implication of our findings revealed that stable money demand suggests the inflation targeting as monetary policy that can strengthen the monetary policy amid increasing economic uncertainty. this study using the uncertainty variables conduct by baker et al (2016) specifically uncertainty variables for indonesia. future research can develop augmented money demand function using for the global uncertainty or policy uncertainty conducted by economic uncertainty policy group in order to generate the money demand function from a different perspective. references abid, a. 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(480).jpg image (481).jpg image (482).jpg image (483).jpg image (484).jpg image (485).jpg image (486).jpg image (487).jpg image (488).jpg image (489).jpg image (490).jpg image (491).jpg image (492).jpg image (493).jpg image (494).jpg image (495).jpg image (496).jpg image (497).jpg microsoft word 09-endah _171-182_.doc jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 8, nomor 2, oktober 2007: 171-182 faktor-faktor yang berpengaruh terhadap willingness to pay untuk perbaikan kualitas air sungai code di kota yogyakarta endah saptutyningsih fakultas ekonomi universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta jalan lingkar selatan, tamantirto, kasihan, bantul, yogyakarta, telp/fax. 0274-387656 psw 184, 387646 e-mail: end_naufal@yahoo.com abstract this paper studies socio-economic factors influencing perceptions of the people on water quality improvement of the “code” river in yogyakarta. the factors considered in this study such as gender, number of children in family, income, duration of stay, activities in the river and the level of water quality of the river. the research values the location based on contingent valuation method (cvm) yielding two types of estimates. first, it provides simple average expressing the expected willingness to pay (expected wtp) of the respondents for water quality improvement of the river. second, it employs the ordinary least square (ols) to estimate those factors in relation with their willingness to pay. the result shows the influence of gender and the number of children in family on their willingness to pay for water quality improvement of the river, as also found for the duration of stay and activities in the river. keywords: willingness to pay, contingent valuation method pendahuluan sebagian besar masyarakat indonesia menggunakan air yang berasal dari sungai untuk memenuhi kebutuhannya. praktek ini dan rendahnya kualitas air sungai dicurigai sebagai penyebab sejumlah problem kesehatan, seperti kematian dini dan diare. wilayah perkotaan telah berkembang cepat pada beberapa tahun terakhir ini (lebih dari 5 persen pertahun) dan diperkirakan pada tahun 2020 separuh dari penduduk berdiam di wilayah perkotaan. keuntungan secara ekonomi dari “aglomerasi” mungkin saja terjadi dipusatpusat wilayah perkotaan, tetapi kepadatan penduduk di wilayah perkotaan secara simultan meningkatkan konsentrasi pencemaran yang berasal dari manisia dan kegiatan ekonomi, serta jumlah orang terkena dampak percemaran tersebut dimana penduduk miskin kurang berdaya untuk melindungi diri mereka. sama halnya, sementara perkembangan yang cepat dari industri menghasilkan pekerjaan produktif (dengan upah yang tinggi) bagi angkatan kerja, juga untuk ekspor nonmigas, konsentrasi perusahaan yang bergerak di sektor industri (dan limbah industri) di wilayah perkotaan menimbulkan ancaman yang nyata terhadap kesehatan dan kesejahteraan penduduk kota di indonesia. masalah pokok pencemaran dari sumbersumber perkotaan mencakup limbah manusia, limbah padat, dan emisi kendaraan bermotor. konsekuensi logis dari pertambahan jumlah penduduk di perkotaan ini adalah adanya per jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 8, nomor 2, oktober 2007: 171 182 172 tambahan aktivitas/kegiatan kota terutama dalam kegiatan sosial ekonomi, pertambahan pergerakan/arus transportasi dan kepadatan penduduk yang kian meningkat. implikasi berikutnya dari keadaan di atas adalah semakin menurunnya kondisi lingkungan perkotaan, seperti meluasnya lingkungan kumuh, meningkatnya kemacetan lalu lintas, ketidakteraturan tapak kawasan, inefisiensi penggunaan lahan, serta rendahnya tingkat pelayanan untuk utilitas umum (air bersih, sarana jalan, kebersihan, dan lain-lain) baik dari segi keterjangkauan maupun kualitas pelayanan. literatur psikologi sosial menunjukkan bukti adanya “gender gap” dalam perilaku atau selera pria atau wanita dalam survey tentang isu-isu lingkungan mengambil satu tahap lebih jauh dan melihat perbedaan willingness to pay (wtp) antara orang tua dan non-orang tua bagi 3 program lingkungan yang berbeda terhadap perlindungan alam liar dan salmon. mereka menemukan bahwa status orang tua berhubungan dengan wtp hanya untuk program tunggal; orang tua lebih sedikit mau membayar untuk program pengawasan kontaminasi. peneliti menyimpulkan bahwa akan menarik untuk menemukan jika perbedaan gender dan parental dihubungkan dengan penilaian terhadap barang-barang lingkungan. penelitian ini juga mengukur nilai tempat orang dengan program menggunakan contingent valuation method (cvm). pada umumnya, cvm merupakan teknik untuk mengukur nilai barang publik dengan secara langsung menanyai orang-orang tentang nilai tempat yang mereka tinggali. jika digunakan secara tepat, metode ini merupakan teknik paling tepat untuk mengestimasi nilai ekonomis suatu barang publik (mitchell dan carson, 1989; tapvong dan kruavan, 1997). tulisan ini juga menganalisis karakteristik sosial ekonomi dalam menentukan nilai tempat tinggal orang dengan program ini (du, 1998; dan nam dan son, 2001). survei akan dilakukan di sepanjang sungai code untuk menentukan willingness to pay responden, sebagai proksi nilai yang mereka tempati dengan adanya program perbaikan kualitas air sungai. dari latar belakang penelitian ini penulis merumuskan permasalahan mengenai faktorfaktor sosial ekonomi apa sajakah yang berpengaruh terhadap kemauan membayar (willingness to pay) untuk perbaikan kualitas air sungai code di kota yogyakarta. adapun tujuan penelitian ini meliputi: 1. mengidentifikasi pengaruh perbedaan antara pria dan wanita terhadap kemauan membayar (willingness to pay) untuk perbaikan kualitas air sungai code di kota yogyakarta. 2. mengidentifikasi pengaruh keberadaan anak dalam keluarga terhadap kemauan membayar (willingness to pay) untuk perbaikan kualitas air sungai code di kota yogyakarta. 3. mengidentifikasi pengaruh tingkat pendapatan terhadap kemauan membayar (willingness to pay) untuk perbaikan kualitas air sungai code di kota yogyakarta. 4. mengidentifikasi pengaruh lama tinggal terhadap kemauan membayar (willingness to pay) untuk perbaikan kualitas air sungai code di kota yogyakarta. 5. mengidentifikasi pengaruh kualitas air sungai code terhadap kemauan membayar (willingness to pay) untuk perbaikan kualitas air sungai code di kota yogyakarta. 6. mengidentifikasi pengaruh ada/tidaknya kegiatan di sungai code terhadap kemauan membayar (willingness to pay) untuk perbaikan kualitas air sungai code di kota yogyakarta. faktor-faktor yang berpengaruh terhadap willingness to pay (endah saptutyningsih) 173 dalam penelitian ini tinjauan pustakanya sebagai berikut: carson’s (1991) menyusun kerangka pasar yang digunakan apabila terdapat dikotomi pertanyaan pilihan sebagai dasar untuk memperoleh penilaian barang-barang publik. skenario hipotetik digambarkan untuk survei responden. mereka diminta untuk menentukan atau menolak sejumlah pembayaran untuk program. diasumsikan bahwa responden akan menjawab hanya jika mereka menggunakan fungsi pengeluaran sebagai dasar bagi keputusan mereka. fungsi ini tergantung pada vektor p, harga barang pasar, dua tingkatan kualitas lingkungan yang berbeda (tingkatan dasar dan tingkatan yang sudah diperbaiki), utilitas dasar, u0, dan vector karakteristik sosial demografi yang merupakan proksi parameter-parameter selera individu (d). dalam skenario tersebut, tingkatan barang-barang lingkungan (q) meningkat dari q0 ke q1. perbedaan antara dua fungsi pengeluaran yang digambarkan oleh hicksian mengkompensasi surplus atau wtp, ditunjukkan dalam persamaan (1), dimana y0 adalah pendapatan nominal. wtp diasumsikan memiliki batas bawah nol dan batas atas y0. ( ) ( )=−= duqpeduqpewtp ,;,,;, 0100 ( )duqpey ,;, 010 − …..(1) dari persamaan tersebut, jelas bahwa faktor kunci seperti pendapatan seseorang dan selera merupakan penentu utama dari perbedaan wtp di antara individu-individu. penelitian ini akan menguji hipotesis penting yang ditulis dari literatur psikologi sosial yang mendukung pandangan bahwa pria yang memiliki anak bertindak berbeda dari wanita yang memiliki anak dalam perbedaan selera kaitannya dengan lingkungan.. diketemukan keberadaan “efek ibu” oleh wanita yang memiliki anak menunjukkan kepedulian yang lebih terhadap masalah lingkungan lokal daripada pria yang memiliki anak, dimana “efek ayah” ditunjukkan dengan kepedulian yang lebih pada pemenuhan kebutuhan materiil dalam keluarga. wanita lebih peduli daripada pria kaitannya dengan lingkungan dan sesuatu yang mereka nilai. dalam sebuah penelitian membuktikan bahwa wanita menunjukkan kepedulian lebih daripada pria tentang resiko spesifik. lebih lanjut, keberadaan anak dalam rumah tangga mungkin membuat orang tuanya lebih sensitive terhadap kualitas lingkungan, literatur ini menganggap bahwa faktor “selera” wanita akan mendorongnya membayar lebih untuk menghindari resiko yang berbahaya dari lingkungan. hipotesis nol yang diuji dalam tulisan ini adalah kemauan ibu untuk membayar kebersihan lingkungan yang berdampak pada anak-anaknya berbeda dari kemauan ayah untuk membayar kebersihan lingkungan yang berdampak pada anak-anaknya. sedangkan hipotesis alternatifnya adalah kemauan ibu untuk membayar kebersihan lingkungan yang berdampak pada anak-anaknya lebih besar dari kemauan ayah untuk membayar. dalam menguji hipotesis tersebut, perlu kontrol terhadap faktor-faktor lain yang mungkin berpengaruh terhadap penilaian pengaruh. seperti telah dibicarakan sebelumnya, teori ekonomi beranggapan bahwa pendapatan seseorang merupakan faktor penting. sepanjang barang tersebut adalah barang normal, wtp berhubungan positif dengan pendapatan. oleh karena itu, individu dengan pendapatan lebih tinggi akan memiliki nilai wtp lebih besar, cateris paribus. setiap individu diasumsikan memiliki kemampuan membayar yang sebenarnya bagi perbaikan barang-barang publik yang tergantung pada karakteristik sosial demografi terma jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 8, nomor 2, oktober 2007: 171 182 174 suk pendapatan, usia, pendidikan, dan selera. dalam persamaan (2) xi menunjukkan m x 1 vektor variable-variabel relevan untuk responden ke-i, β adalah vektor nilai koefisien, dan εi adalah faktor kesalahan (error term). iii xwtp εβ += ' …..(2) dalam pilihan dikotomi, setiap responden diminta untuk memilih atau menolak pembayaran sejumlah uang tertentu untuk mendapatkan perbaikan barang publik. diasumsikan bahwa setiap responden akan membandingkan wtp mereka sebenarnya dengan jumlah yang ditawarkan. willingness to pay (wtp) merupakan salah satu bentuk penilaian ekonomi yang dilakukan dengan melihat kesediaan membayar dari para individu untuk memperbaiki kesehatan mereka akibat kerusakan lingkungan. pendekatan willingness to pay (wtp) ini pada hakekatnya mencari penilaian individual mengenai peningkatan atau penurunan pengeluaran biaya terhadap perbaikan kualitas lingkungan. di satu sisi, kesediaan membayar dipengaruhi pula oleh tingkat pendapatan masyarakat, sedangkan kesediaan untuk menerima kerusakan lingkungan bersifat tidak terbatas. dampak sosial-ekonomi merupakan dampak kerusakan (pencemaran) lingkungan yang mengakibatkan meningkatnya alokasi biaya yang digunakan untuk mengatasi dampak kerusakan tersebut atau alokasi biaya yang digunakan untuk mengatasi dampak fifik (gangguan kesehatan) akibat kerusakan lingkungan. contoh: seseorang yang menderita sakit kulit akibat terkena dampak polusi air akan mengalokasikan biaya kesehatan (untuk menyembuhkan penyakitnya) lebih besar daripada biaya kesehatan di saat tubuhnya sehat. aktifitas ekonomi yang dapat mengakibatkan eksternalitas negatif kepada lingkungan (pencemaran lingkungan) tidak dapat ditunjukkan dengan perubahan pendapatan nasional. hal ini dapat terjadi akibat posisi lingkungan hidup sebagai barang publik, sehingga tidak ada pihak yang langsung akan menanggung kompensasi penggunaan lingkungan tersebut. di amerika serikat seperti halnya di negara-negara industri, terdapat beberapa aturan yang bertujuan untuk melindungi kualitas air, beberapa ditujukan untuk air samudra, beberapa untuk air minum, dan lain-lain. untuk itu, tidak ada yang lebih komprehensif daripada the clean water act. adapun tiga tujuan terpenting untuk perbaikan kualitas air adalah: pertama, “zero discharge goal” adalah mengurangi polusi terhadap sungai agar sungai dapat dilayari; kedua, “fishable-swimmable goal” yaitu agar sungai dapat mendukung kegiatan rekreasi dan ikan dapat bertahan hidup di dalamnya; ketiga, “no toxic in toxic amounts goal” yaitu membebaskan air sungai dari racun sehingga bisa dikonsumsi oleh masyarakat (callan and thomas, 2000). teknik estimasi penilaian masyarakat terhadap perbaikan barang publik (mitchell dan carson, 1989). literatur contingent valuation method (cvm) telah banyak digunakan untuk mengukur yang menggunakan metode yang tepat untuk mengagregasi nilai estimasi ratarata atau nilai tengah willingness to pay untuk berbagai kelompok dalam masyarakat telah memfokuskan pada perbedaan-perbedaan yang terkait dengan karakteristik yang tidak dapat diobservasi. baru-baru ini telah dikembangkan pengukuran perbedaan-perbedaan yang dapat diobservasi terutama gender sebagai fokus penelitian. teori ekonomi menganggap bahwa penilaian lingkungan secara positif berhubungan faktor-faktor yang berpengaruh terhadap willingness to pay (endah saptutyningsih) 175 dengan tingkat pendapatan sepanjang barang tersebut adalah barang normal. ketika pria memiliki pendapatan lebih tinggi daripada wanita, seseorang akan menganggap penilaian terhadap pria lebih tinggi daripada wanita, cateris paribus. akan tetapi, faktor-faktor selain pendapatan seperti selera, mungkin berperan penting dalam menentukan apakah wanita atau pria yang memiliki penilaian lebih tinggi. literatur psikologi sosial menunjukkan bukti adanya “gender gap” dalam perilaku atau selera pria atau wanita dalam survei tentang isuisu lingkungan. penelitian ini merujuk pada penelitianpenelitian mengenai willingnes to pay yang pernah dilakukan para peneliti lain. di sini dapat disebutkan sebagai berikut: survei willingness to pay (wtp) yang meliputi perbaikan kualitas air dan udara menjadi dua bagian sampel dari populasi yang sama. hasil penelitiannya menunjukkan fungsi estimasi valuasi tidak mengalami perubahan, meskipun estimasi wtp berbeda karena nilai beberapa variabel penjelas utama telah berubah. lili dan budi (2004) melakukan penelitian dengan menggunakan metode contingent valuation untuk menilai program perbaikan kualitas air sungai ciliwung. hasilnya menyimpulkan bahwa willingness to pay untuk perbaikan kualitas air sungai meningkat seiring dengan meningkatnya pendapatan dan tingkat pendidikan. dalam penelitian lain diketemukan bahwa pria mau membayar lebih akan barang publik. sebuah penelitian yang menemukan keberadaan “efek ibu” oleh wanita yang memiliki anak menujukkan kepedulian yang lebih terhadap masalah lingkungan lokal daripada pria yang memiliki anak, dimana “efek ayah” ditunjukkan dengan kepedulian yang lebih pada pemenuhan kebutuhan materiil dalam keluarga. dupont (2002) telah meneliti bagaimana pengaruh anak dalam rumah tangga terkait dengan willingness to pay untuk perbaikan lingkungan. dengan menggunakan contingent valuation, diperoleh hasil bahwa wanita yang memiliki anak mau membayar lebih tinggi untuk perbaikan lingkungan daripada pria yang mempunyai anak. hipotesis yang diajukan penulis dalam penelitian ini sebagai berikut: 1. perbedaan antara pria dan wanita berpengaruh terhadap kemauan membayar (willingness to pay) untuk perbaikan kualitas air sungai code di kota yogyakarta 2. keberadaan anak dalam keluarga berpengaruh terhadap kemauan membayar (willingness to pay) untuk perbaikan kualitas air sungai code di kota yogyakarta 3. tingkat pendapatan berpengaruh positif terhadap kemauan membayar (willingness to pay) untuk perbaikan kualitas air sungai code di kota yogyakarta 4. lama tinggal berpengaruh positif terhadap kemauan membayar (willingness to pay) untuk perbaikan kualitas air sungai code di kota yogyakarta 5. kualitas air sungai code berpengaruh terhadap kemauan membayar (willingness to pay) untuk perbaikan kualitas air sungai code di kota yogyakarta 6. ada/tidaknya kegiatan di sungai code berpengaruh terhadap kemauan membayar (willingness to pay) untuk perbaikan kualitas air sungai code di kota yogyakarta metode penelitian jenis data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data primer. teknik pengambilan sampelnya strategic random sample (scheaffer jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 8, nomor 2, oktober 2007: 171 182 176 et.al., 1996), berarti bahwa semua rumah yang berlokasi di sepanjang sungai code dibagi dalam beberapa blok, dan kemudian sampel diacak untuk setiap blok. interview secara langsung untuk menanyakan nilai program seperti ini dilakukan kepada rumah tangga-rumah tangga di sepanjang pinggiran sungai. terdapat 195 orang yang diinterview di sepanjang sungai code di kota yogyakarta. penelitian ini dilakukan di sepanjang sungai code yang berada di kota yogyakarta propinsi daerah istimewa yogyakarta. definisi operasional variabel 1. kualitas air sungai merupakan suatu keadaan air sungai sejauh mana dapat digunakan atau dikonsumsi oleh masyarakat di sekitarnya untuk memenuhi kebutuhan sehari-hari baik untuk diminum, digunakan untuk mandi atau mencuci, ataukah ikan dapat bertahan hidup di sungai tersebut. 2. contingent valuation method (cvm) merupakan teknik untuk mengukur nilai barang. jika digunakan secara tepat, metode ini merupakan teknik paling tepat untuk mengestimasi nilai ekonomis suatu barang publik. alat analisis 1. metode analisis model regresi digunakan untuk menguji faktorfaktor sosial ekonomi pada wtp, di antaranya gender, keberadaan anak dalam keluarga, pendapatan, lama tinggal, pencapaian sekolah, usia responden, dan pandangan responden tentang kualitas air sungai code, serta apakah responden melakukan aktifitas di sungai. pertanyaan yang diajukan dalam kuesioner meliputi: pertanyaan tentang latar belakang sosial ekonomi; seperti gender, memiliki anak atau tidak, tingkat pendapatan, lama tinggal, ada/tidaknya aktifitas, dan level kualitas air (mitchell dan carson, 1989; choe, k, et.al, 1996). lebih lanjut ditanyakan tentang penilaian mereka terhadap kualitas air sungai code dan aktifitas mereka terkait dengan sungai tersebut. terdapat tiga skala yang menunjukkan pendapat masyarakat terhadap kualitas air sungai code; 1). tidak berpolusi; 2). sangat berpolusi; 3). sangat berpolusi tetapi dapat diperbaharui. responden diminta untuk memilih antara level 1 sampai 3 yang terbaik untuk menggambarkan kualitas air sungai di daerahnya. setelah responden memilih, tahap ketiga menanyakan apakah ia mau membayar x rupiah per bulan, untuk membantu membiayai program perbaikan kualitas air sungai sebesar satu tingkatan. x adalah angka random berdistribusi normal antara 1000 dan 7000 rupiah (atau antara us$14 sen dan us$1). jika jawaban responden 'ya' kemudian pertanyaan yang sama ditanyakan kembali tapi x baru adalah x lama ditambah 500 rupiah. pertanyaan ini diulang-ulang lagi dengan kenaikan x sampai responden menjawab 'tidak'. dilihat dari tujuan penelitian ini yaitu mengestimasi nilai perbaikan kualitas air sungai dan mengetahui factor-faktor social ekonomi yang menentukan nilai tersebut, maka penelitian ini mengadopsi tiga tipe estimasi: pertama, simple average. ekspektasi kemauan untuk membayar (the expected willingness to pay), dilambangkan e (wtp) adalah rata-rata uang yang dikeluarkan oleh responden yang diperoleh dari survey (choe et.al., 1996; nam dan son, 2001). ( ) nywtpe i /)( *∑= (1) faktor-faktor yang berpengaruh terhadap willingness to pay (endah saptutyningsih) 177 dimana yi* adalah uang yang dikeluarkan terakhir oleh responden i n adalah jumlah total responden. kedua, metode ols (ordinary least squares) dengan menggunakan persamaan berikut (smith, 1983; tapvong dan kruavan, 1997; dan choe,k., 1996): ( )20* ,0, σββ normalxuuxy iii ≈++= (2) dimana: x = vektor karakteristik sosial ekonomi responden yang meliputi pendapatan, lama tinggal, level kualitas air sungai, melakukan aktifitas di sungai atau tidak, gender, dan keberadaan anak. ui = faktor pengganggu estimasi willingness to pay dapat diperoleh dari: ββ xwtpe += 0)( …..(3) dimana: x = vektor karakteristik sosial ekonomi seluruh responden. perlu dicatat bahwa yi adalah variable yang terus menerus memiliki nilai positif, tetapi kemudian mencapai nol dengan probabilitas positif. ols dapat menyediakan perkiraan yang baik akan kemauan orang untuk membayar program perbaikan kualitas air sungai (dalam kasus ini), terutama untuk xi dekat dengan nilai rata-rata. akan tetapi, dimungkinkan hasilnya memiliki nilai negative atau prediksi negatif). 2. uji asumsi klasik untuk mengetahui baik tidaknya data yang digunakan dalam peneltian, maka perlu dilakukan uji kevalidan data, untuk itu dilakukan uji aumsi klasik yang meliputi: 3. multikolinearitas uji multikolinearitas dilakukan untuk mengetahui ada tidaknya hubungan linier di antara variabel-variabel bebas dalam model regresi. jika variabel-variabel bebas berkorelasi, maka hal ini menunjukkan adanya multikolinearitas dalam model, model regresi yang baik seharusnya tidak terdapat multikolinearitas. untuk mendeteksi ada tidaknya multikolinearitas yaitu dengan menggunakan matriks korelasi. model regresi yang bebas dari multikolinearitas memiliki koefisien korelasi antara variabel independent harus lemeh yaitu di bawah 0,5. 4. heteroskedastisitas uji heteroskedastisitas dilakukan untuk mengetahui apakah terjadi ketidaksamaan varian residual pada model regresi, jika varian residual dari satu pengamatan ke pengamatan yang lain tetap sama, ini disebut homoskedastisitas. jika varian residual berbeda dari satu pengamatan ke pengamatan lain disebut heteroskedastisitas. model regresi yang baik seharusnya tidak terdapat heteroskedastisitas. dalam penelitian ini pengujian heteroskedastisitas menggunakan uji white. dengan melihat probabilitas f statistik dapat diketahui apakah dalam model terdapat heteroskedastisitas atau tidak, hipotesis pengujiannya sebagai berikut: ho: α ≡ 0 ha: α ≠ 0 hipotesis nol (ho) diterima apabila probabilitas > 0,05 (derajat kepercayaan 95 persen), menunjukkan bahwa model tidak mengandung heteroskedastisitas. sedangkan ho ditolak (ha diterima) apabila probabilitas < 0,05 (derajat kepercayaan 95 persen), maka jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 8, nomor 2, oktober 2007: 171 182 178 model mengandung heteroskedastisitas (gunawan, 1994). hasil dan pembahasan uji asumsi klasik 1. multikolinearitas uji multikolinearitas dilakukan untuk menguji apakah pada model regesi ditemukan adanya korelasi antara variabel bebas. model regresi yang baik seharusnya tidak terjadi korelasi di antara variabel bebasnya. pengujian multikolinearitas dilakukan dengan melihat koefisien korelasi antarvariabel bebas pada matriks korelasi, jika koefisien korelasi kurang dari 0,5 maka dianggap model tersebut tidak mengandung multikolinearitas. dari hasil pengujian multikolinearitas dengan menggunakan matriks korelasi, diperoleh bahwa model regresi dalam penelitian ini tidak mengandung multikolinearitas, karena koefisien korelasinya kurang dari 0,5. 2. heteroskedastisitas uji heteroskedastisitas dilakukan untuk menguji apakah dalam model regresi terdapat variasi dari semua gangguan (disturbance) yang tidak konstan. untuk mendeteksi adanya heteroskedastisitas dapat dilakukan dengan uji white. jika nilai f hitung signifikan secara statistik, maka dalam model regresi terdapat heteroskedastisitas, dan sebaliknya. hasil pengujian white menunjukkan bahwa f statistik sebesar 1,414949 dengan probabilitas lebih dari 0,05 (derajat kepercayaan 95 persen) berarti bahwa f hitung tidak signifikan artinya model regresi dalam penelitian ini tidak mengandung heteroskedastisitas. 3. analisis regresi berdasarkan hasil regresi maka diperoleh koefisien regresi yang dapat diinterpretasikan sebagai berikut: wtp = 882,72 +152,87gender+156,43anak+ t-stat 5,7746 2,7072 2,8123 0,0005pdptn+2,82lama– 4,6249 1,637 156,52akt+18,52level -1,9779 0,383 r2 0,7843 persamaan regresi ini menunjukkan nilai konstanta βo sebesar 882,72 artinya apabila semua variabel bebas (gender, keberadaan anak, tingkat pendapatan, lama tinggal, aktivitas di sungai dan level kualitas sungai) dianggap konstan atau tidak mengalami perubahan, maka nilai willingness to pay akan sebesar 882,72 ≈ 900 rupiah. hal ini berarti bahwa masyarakat di sekitar sungai code mau membayar sampai dengan rp. 900,untuk perbaikan kualitas air sungai code tanpa dipengaruhi faktor gender, keberadaan anak, tingkat pendapatan, lama tinggal, aktivitas di sungai dan level kualitas sungai. gender atau perbedaan jenis kelamin dan keberadaan anak di dalam suatu rumah tangga berpengaruh terhadap besarnya willingness to pay untuk perbaikan kualitas air sungai code. nilai koefisien (β3) sebesar 0,0005 menunjukkan bahwa variabel pendapatan memberikan pengaruh positif terhadap willingness to pay. apabila pendapatan meningkat sebesar 1 rupiah maka willingness to pay akan naik sebesar 0,0005 rupiah, dengan asumsi variabel lain dianggap konstan. semakin tinggi pendapatan faktor-faktor yang berpengaruh terhadap willingness to pay (endah saptutyningsih) 179 seseorang akan mendorong untuk meningkatkan kualitas kesehatannya melalui pemeliharaan lingkungan di sekitar tempat tinggalnya. oleh karena itu, dengan meningkatnya pendapatan, maka orang cenderung mau membayar lebih tinggi untuk memperbaiki kualitas lingkungan tempat tinggalnya. nilai koefisien (β4) sebesar 2,82 menunjukkan bahwa variabel lama tinggal memberikan pengaruh positif terhadap willingness to pay . apabila lama tinggal di sepanjang sungai code bertambah 1 tahun maka willingness to pay akan naik sebesar 2,82 rupiah, dengan asumsi variabel lain dianggap konstan. semakin lama orang tinggal di suatu tempat, maka semakin tinggi kepeduliannya terhadap lingkungan di sekitar tempat tinggalnya. oleh karena itu, orang mau membayar lebih tinggi untuk memperbaiki kualitas lingkungan tempat tinggalnya dengan semakin lamanya di tinggal di lingkungan tersebut. ada tidaknya aktifitas di sungai code berpengaruh terhadap besarnya willingness to pay untuk perbaikan kualitas sungai tersebut. sedangkan level kualitas sungai code itu sendiri tidak mempengaruhi willingness to pay untuk perbaikan kualitas sungai tersebut. koefisien β1, β2, β5, dan β5 tidak dapat diinterspretasikan karena variabelnya merupakan variabel dummy. uji statistik 1. uji koefisien regresi secara individu (uji t) a. pengujian terhadap variabel gender dari hasil regresi diperoleh nilai thitung sebesar 2,7072, maka t hitung (2,7072) > ttabel (1,645), atau dapat dilihat signifikan 0,007 < 0,10 (signifikan α = 10 persen), sehingga ho ditolak dan ha diterima yang berarti menerima hipotesis bahwa variabel gender mempunyai pengaruh terhadap willingness to pay untuk perbaikan kualitas sungai code di kota yogyakarta. b. pengujian terhadap variabel keberadaan anak hasil regresi menunjukkan nilai t hitung sebesar 2,8123 maka t hitung (2,8123) > t tabel (1,645), atau dapat dilihat signifikan 0,005 < 0,10 (signifikan α = 10 persen), sehingga ho ditolak dan ha diterima yang berarti menerima hipotesis bahwa variabel keberadaan anak berpengaruh terhadap willingness to pay untuk perbaikan kualitas sungai code di kota yogyakarta. c. pengujian terhadap variabel pendapatan hasil regresi menunjukkan nilai thitung sebesar 4,6249 maka thitung (4,6249) > ttabel (1,645), atau dapat dilihat signifikan 0,000 < 0,10 (signifikan α = 1 persen), sehingga ho ditolak dan ha diterima yang berarti menerima hipotesis bahwa variabel pendapatan mempunyai pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap willingness to pay untuk perbaikan kualitas air sungai code di kota yogyakarta. semakin tinggi pendapatan seseorang, maka semakin tinggi keinginan untuk memperbaiki kesehatan melalui perbaikan kualitas lingkungan khususnya kualitas air sungai code. d. pengujian terhadap variabel lama tinggal. dari hasil regresi diperoleh nilai thitung sebesar 1,637 maka thitung (1,637) < ttabel (1,645), atau dapat dilihat signifikan 0,1033 > 0,10 (signifikan α = 10 persen), sehingga ho diterima dan ha ditolak yang berarti menerima hipotesis bahwa variabel lama tinggal mempunyai tidak berpengaruh terhadap willingness to pay untuk perbaikan kualitas sungai code di kota yogyakarta. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 8, nomor 2, oktober 2007: 171 182 180 e. pengujian terhadap variabel aktifitas. hasil regresi menunjukkan nilai thitung sebesar -1,9779 maka thitung (-1,9779) < ttabel (-1,645), atau dapat dilihat signifikan 0,0494 < 0,10 (signifikan α = 10 persen), sehingga ho ditolak dan ha diterima yang berarti menerima hipotesis bahwa variabel ada/tidaknya aktifitas berpengaruh terhadap willingness to pay untuk perbaikan kualitas air sungai code di kota yogyakarta. f. pengujian terhadap variabel level kualitas air sungai code. hasil regresi menunjukkan nilai thitung sebesar 0,383 maka thitung (0,383) < ttabel (1,645), atau dapat dilihat signifikan 0,7021>0,10 (signifikan α = 10 persen), sehingga ho diterima dan ha ditolak yang berarti menerima hipotesis bahwa level kualitas air sungai code tidak mempunyai pengaruh terhadap willingness to pay untuk perbaikan kualitas air sungai code di kota yogyakarta. 2. pengujian secara serentak (uji f) dari hasil perhitungan regresi dapat disimpulkan bahwa nilai f hitung (,8526) > ftable sehingga dinyatakan bahwa ho ditolak dan ha diterima. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa variabel gender, keberadaan anak, pendapatan, lama tinggal, ada/tidaknya aktifitas, dan level kualitas air sungai code secara bersama-sama berpengaruh terhadap willingness to pay untuk perbaikan kualitas air sungai code di kota yogyakarta. 3. koefisien determinasi (r2) nilai koefisien determinasi (r2) sebesar 0,2003 dapat diartikan bahwa secara statistik lebih kurang 20,03 persen willingness to pay untuk perbaikan kualitas air sungai code di kota yogyakarta dipengaruhi oleh variabel gender, keberadaan anak, pendapatan, lama tinggal, ada/tidaknya aktifitas, dan level kualitas air sungai code. sedangkan lainnya lebih kurang 79,97 persen willingness to pay untuk perbaikan kualitas air sungai code di kota yogyakarta dipengaruhi oleh variabel lainnya diluar model penelitian ini. kesimpulan 1. gender dan keberadaan anak di dalam rumah tangga berpengaruh terhadap willingness to pay untuk perbaikan kualitas air sungai code di kota yogyakarta 2. pendapatan berpengaruh terhadap willingness to pay untuk perbaikan kualitas air sungai code di kota yogyakarta. apabila pendapatan meningkat sebesar 1 rupiah maka willingness to pay akan naik sebesar 0,0005 rupiah, dengan asumsi variabel lain dianggap konstan.semakin tinggi pendapatan seseorang, maka semakin tinggi keinginan untuk memperbaiki kesehatan melalui perbaikan kualitas lingkungan khususnya kualitas air sungai code. 3. ada/tidaknya aktifitas mempunyai pengaruh terhadap willingness to pay untuk perbaikan kualitas air sungai code di kota yogyakarta. 4. lama tinggal dan level kualitas air sungai code tidak berpengaruh terhadap willingness to pay untuk perbaikan kualitas air sungai code di kota yogyakarta. saran yang diajukan penulis sebagai berikut: 1. mengingat tepi sungai kondisi ekologinya cenderung rapuh, maka salah satu unsur dalam penataan lingkungan yang perlu diperhatikan adalah mempertahankan zona hijau yang bisa ditanami pohon dan tanaman yang dapat dikonsumsi, misalnya faktor-faktor yang berpengaruh terhadap willingness to pay (endah saptutyningsih) 181 sayuran. pada setiap kelompok juga dirancang terdapat ruang terbuka bersama yang berfungsi sebagai zona hijau dan tempat berolahraga. ini berarti upaya konsolidasi lahan melalui alternatif penataan kampung vertikal juga dapat menyediakan lahan terbuka sebagai fungsi ekologis untuk menjaga ekosistem sungai. 2. penataan hunian di tepi sungai diharapkan dapat menghasilkan ruang bebas dengan pihak swasta dapat melakukan kegiatan ekonomi, sementara di sisi lain penduduk di lokasi menjadi pemegang saham dari kegiatan ekonomi yang ada. diharapkan pihak swasta akan berperan langsung maupun tidak dalam meningkatkan kualitas lingkungan yang mereka masuki. 3. dengan penataan tepian sungai yang baik dapat meningkatkan kualitas sosial dan ekonomi mereka. 4. sebaiknya pemerintah mendorong perusahaan baik penghasil barang maupun jasa untuk memaksimalkan penggunaan saluran limbah yang langsung terhubung ke instalasi pengolahan air limbah (ipal) daftar pustaka afsah, s., 1999. impact of financial crisis on industrial growth and environmental performance in indonesia. washington dc: us-asia environmental partnership. boyle, et.al. 1994. an investigation of partwhole biases in contingent valuation studies. journal of environmental economics and management. callan, scott j., and thomas, janet m., 2000. environmental economics and management: theory, policy, and applications. orlando: the dryden press. choe, ka., d., whittington, dt. lauria, 1996. the economic benefit of surface water quality improvements in developing countries a case study of davao, philippines. land economics. dupont, 2002. influence of child of in household related to willingness to pay for repair of environment. journal of environmental economic. london. evi gravitiani. 2003. valuasi ekonomi dampak gas buang kendaraan bermotor terhadap kesehatan masyarakat di kota yogyakarta. tesis s2 universitas gadjah mada yogyakarta. haritanto, 2004, persepsi masyarakat terhadap air sungai jurnal lingkungan dan pembangunan (environment & development) vol. 24, no.3. horowitz, john k., and k. e. mcconnell, 2003, willingness to accept, willingness to pay and the income effect, journal of economic behavior & organization, vol. 51, no. 4, august, pp. 537-545 imam, moh. nurul. 2002. estimasi biaya polusi udara bagi pengendara motor di yogyakarta dengan contingent valuation method. tesis pascasarjana universitas gadjah mada yogyakarta. levinson, arik, 2004, willingness to pay for environmental quality: testable empirical implications of the growth and environment literature, the b.e. journal of economic analysis & policy, vol. 3 no. 1. lili yan ing dan budy p. resosudarmo. 2004. river water quality improvement: an application of the contingent valuation method to the ciliwung river, indonesia. regional development in the era of decentralization: growth, poverty, and environment. irsa international conference series. bandung: unpad press. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 8, nomor 2, oktober 2007: 171 182 182 mitchell, r.c. and carson, r.t., 1989. using surveys to value public goods: the contingent valuation method. resources for the future, washington dc. nam, p.k. and t.v. son, 2001. analysis of recreational value of the coral-surrounded hon mun islands in vietnam. eepsea research report. singapore. scrase, j. ivan, and william r. sheate, 2002, integration and integrated approaches to assessment: what do they mean for the environment?, journal of environmental policy and planning, vol. 4 no. 4, pp. 275 294 tapvong c. and kruavan, 1997. water quality improvements: a contingent valuation study of the chao praya river. international development resource center. ottawa, canada. tietenberg, tom. 1998. environmental economics and policy. second edition. usa: addison wesley. world bank, 1994. indonesia environment and development: challenges for the future. report no. 12083-ind. washington dc. microsoft word 03-evi gravitiani jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 11, nomor 1, april 2010, hlm.30-37   aplikasi individual travel cost method di area publik evi gravitiani fakultas ekonomi universitas sebelas maret surakarta jalan ir. sutami 36 a surakarta 57126 indonesia telepon +62-271-646994 e-mail: e_gravity2000@yahoo.com abstract: public areas useful to meet the inner needs with recreational facilities and educational facilities. development of public areas to provide additional public welfare or detrimental to society. the public welfare increased if the development was provide benefit larger compared by the cost to be borne, plus loss of benefit for development in the state of being old. the public welfare indicated by the magnitude of the consumer surplus acquired. individual travel cost method (itcm) is used as a model that describes the number of visits and is a function of travel costs, time needed to travel, where replacement and income. the number of visits to the taman pintar positively and significantly influenced by the total cost of a visit to taman pintar, the total cost of visits to alternative places other than taman pintar, and visitor revenue. the correlation between the visits of the total costs a visit to taman pintar, the total costs a visit to place a substitute for other than taman pintar, and visitors income are very strong. keywords: public services, quality of service, institutional capacity, public area, investment abstrak: area publik bermanfaat memenuhi kebutuhan batiniah masyarakat melalui penyediaan sarana rekreasi sekaligus sebagai sarana pendidikan. pengembangan area publik dapat memberikan tambahan kesejahteraan masyarakat atau bisa juga merugikan masyarakat. kesejahteraan masyarakat meningkat jika pengembangan tersebut memberikan benefit yang lebih besar dibandingkan biaya yang harus ditanggung, ditambah hilangnya benefit karena pengembangan dibanding keadaan yang lama. kesejahteraan masyarakat ditunjukkan oleh besarnya surplus konsumen yang diperolehnya. individual travel cost method (itcm) digunakan sebagai model yang menggambarkan banyaknya kunjungan dan merupakan fungsi dari biaya perjalanan, waktu yang diperlukan untuk perjalanan, tempat pengganti dan penghasilan. banyaknya kunjungan ke taman pintar dipengaruhi secara positif dan signifikan oleh biaya total kunjungan ke taman pintar, biaya total kunjungan ke tempat pengganti selain taman pintar, dan pendapatan pengunjung. korelasi antara banyaknya kunjungan terhadap biaya total kunjungan ke taman pintar, biaya total kunjungan ke tempat pengganti selain taman pintar, dan pendapatan pengunjung sangat kuat. kata kunci: pelayanan publik, kualitas layanan, kapasitas kelembagaan, area publik, investasi pendahuluan area publik seperti taman kota dan lapangan olah raga, memberi manfaat yang nyata bagi pemakainya. pembangunan perkotaan yang sangat pesat di indonesia memberikan dampak bagi masyarakat, baik yang positif maupun negatif. manfaat yang dapat diterima oleh masyarakat dari area publik tersebut antara lain sebagai pemenuhan kebutuhan batiniah dengan tersedianya sarana rekreasi yang sekaligus sebagai sarana pendidikan. sarana yang mudah terjangkau menjadi penting keberadaannya. pada era 90-an telah terjadi ledakan perkembangan sains, terutama teknologi informasi yang telah menghantarkan peradaban manusia ke era tanpa batas. perkembangan sains adalah sesuatu yang patut disyukuri karena memberikan kemudahan-kemudahan bagi perbaikan kualitas hidup manusia. hal tersebut yang menjadikan pemerintah kota yogyakarta membangun taman pintar. area publik tersebut di aplikasi individual travel cost method di area publik (evi gravitiani) 31 gunakan sebagai kawasan untuk mengekspresikan, berkreasi, serta belajar ilmu pengetahuan dan teknologi bagi siswa, guru, dan masyarakat. target pembangunan taman pintar adalah memperkenalkan sains kepada siswa mulai dari dini agar kreatifitas anak didik terus diasah, sehingga bangsa indonesia tidak hanya menjadi sasaran eksploitasi pasar teknologi, tetapi juga berusaha untuk dapat menciptakan teknologi sendiri. biaya pertama yang harus diperhitungkan adalah biaya pembangunan taman pintar itu sendiri (biaya konstruksi) ditambah biaya perawatannya (maintainance cost). total dana yang dibutuhkan untuk membangun taman pintar mencapai rp70 miliar, dengan lima zona yaitu gedung oval, gedung kotak, kios buku, playground dan pendidikan anak usia dini serta plaza sriwedani. manfaat yang secara langsung diperoleh adalah peningkatan penerimaan asli daerah (pad) dari pungutan masyarakat pemakainya. manfaat yang tidak langsung adalah pemahaman masyarakat, terutama anak-anak usia sekolah bahwa mempelajari sains adalah hal yang menyenangkan. taman pintar menggunakan pendekatan yang memancing imajinasi, memunculkan rasa penasaran dengan landasan filosofis yang diadopsi dari ajaran ki hajar dewantara; niteni, niroake, nambahi,” niteni adalah memahami, niroake adalah menirukan, nambahi adalah mengembangkan. dengan demikian, siswa akan terangsang untuk berpikir dan mereka menjadi lebih kreatif. manfaat ini sangat besar nilainya bagi perkembangan sains dan teknologi di indonesia, walaupun sulit untuk dikuantifikasi. permasalahan yang sangat penting untuk dipertimbangkan dalam pengambilan kebijakan berkaitan dengan pengembangan suatu area publik adalah dampak pengembangan area publik, memberikan tambahan kesejahteraan masyarakat atau sebaliknya, merugikan masyarakat. kesejahteraan masyarakat meningkatkan jika pengembangan tersebut memberikan benefit yang lebih besar dibandingkan biaya yang harus ditanggung ditambah hilangnya benefit karena pengembangan dibanding keadaan yang lama. kesejahteraan masyarakat ditunjukkan oleh besarnya surplus konsumen yang diperolehnya. studi terdahulu. studi yang dilakukan seller, stoll dan chavas (1985) serta smith, desvousges dan fisher (1986) membandingkan metode travel cost dengan contingent valuation menggunakan close-ended format maupun openended format. sedangkan smith, desvousges dan fisher melakukan komparasi valuasi benefit rekreasi di antara kedua metode valuasi. pada indirect method (travel cost) digunakan generalized travel cost model (marshallian dan hicksian) dan simple travel cost model. pada direct method (contingent valuation) digunakan teknik direct question, payment card serta iterative bidding. hasilnya mengindikasikan estimasi yang hampir sama. caulkins, bishop, dan bouwes (1986) melakukan valuasi ekonomi perbaikan kualitas air pada suatu situs rekreasi dengan metode travel cost. studi ini menggunakan multiple logit model (mnl) dan alternatif travel cost model (atc). penggunaan mnl menghasilkan prediksi kenaikan kurva permintaan rekreasi yang lebih kecil dibanding atc. hal ini terjadi karena pada mnl diasumsikan ada pergeseran kunjungan dari suatu situs lain ke situs yang mengalami perbaikan (improvement). sedangkan pada atc tidak ada relokasi kunjungan ke lain situs. caulkins dkk, boyle dan bishop (1988) menggunakan metode contingent valuation untuk mengukur welfare. studi tersebut membandingkan antara iterative bidding, payment card dan dichotomous choice. masing-masing teknik ternyata memiliki kelebihan dan kelemahan. penelitian yang dilakukan kling (1988) menguji reliabilitas estimasi benefit dari recreational demand model. kling menyatakan pemilihan bentuk fungsi dan spesifikasi model merupakan faktor penting dalam estimasi benefit. studi chairul (2000) yang dilakukannya di area publik, stadion manahan solo menyatakan bahwa banyaknya kunjungan dipengaruhi oleh biaya total kenjungan ke manahan, biaya total kunjungan ke tempat lain, dan pendapatan masyarakat. biaya total dihitung dengan biaya perjalanan dan biaya waktu perjalanan pulang pergi. tehnik valuasi ekonomi. kata “value” yang berarti “nilai” dalam pengertian ekonomi jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 11, nomor 1, april 2010: 30-37 32 didefinisikan sebagai kontribusi terhadap kemauan seseorang. pengertian kata ini sering dikaitkan dengan biaya yang harus dibayar oleh seseorang. nilai marginal berkaitan dengan perubahan kegunaan yang dirasakan seseorang (tientenberg, 1998: 146). nilai ekonomi total terbagi menjadi dua bagian, yaitu nilai guna (use value) dan nilai non-guna (non-use value). nilai guna terbagi lagi menjadi tiga hal, nilai guna langsung (direct use value); nilai guna tak langsung (indirect use value); dan nilai pilihan (option value). (1) nilai guna (use value). nilai guna adalah nilai yang dirasakan seseorang karena interaksi orang tersebut dengan lingkungan dimana dia berada. nilai guna ini dibagi tiga bagian, yaitu nilai guna langsung, nilai guna tak langsung, dan nilai pilihan. nilai guna langsung (direct use value) adalah nilai yang diperoleh atau dirasakan seseorang karena berhubungan langsung dengan lingkungan, mengunjungi suatu lingkungan tertentu atau bahkan bertempat tinggal di lingkungan tersebut. nilai guna langsung ini terbagi menjadi nilai konsumtif dan nilai non-konsumtif. nilai konsumtif adalah nilai yang langsung dapat diperoleh karena seseorang mengkonsumsi barang tersebut, misalnya makanan, minuman, obat-obatan. sedangkan nilai nonkonsumtif adalah nilai yang langsung dapat diperoleh seseorang yang bukan merupakan barang konsumtif; seperti rekreasi, kesehatan, dan kenyamanan. nilai guna tak-langsung (indirect use value) biasanya dikaitkan dengan nilai lingkungan, seperti kualitas air; kualitas udara; pencemaran karbon. kuantitas nilai ini seringkali agak sulit diukur, karena memerlukan hubungan sebabakibat (cause-effect relationship) untuk diestimasi. nilai pilihan (option value) adalah nilai kemungkinan penggunaan lingkungan pada masa yang akan datang bagi generasi mendatang. nilai pilihan ini seringkali disebut dengan nilai warisan (bequest value). (2) nilai non-guna (non use value). nilai nonguna disebut juga nilai keberadaan (existence value). manfaat baru diketahui ketika sumber daya alam digunakan tanpa adanya ekspektasi pengunaannya di masa sekarang maupun masa yang akan datang. nilai ini terkadang disebut juga nilai guna pasif (passive use value). pada nilai ini sulit untuk melakukan prediksi secara kuantitatif dan tidak ada hubungan dengan pasar atau observasi perilaku untuk mengetahui kekuatan suatu pilihan. penilaian (valuation) digunakan untuk membuat perbandingan antara manfaat marginal dan biaya marginal diperlukan penilaian dengan unit uang sebagai informasi yang berbentuk angka. biaya marginal menjelaskan tentang nilai seseorang yang disediakan pasar. pilihan seseorang terlihat pada tindakannya dalam menjual dan membeli di pasar. hal ini yang dinamakan dengan “nilai pasar (market value)”. manfaat marginal diperlukan untuk memperoleh data pasar mengenai nilai guna langsung. pilihan seseorang atas barang sumber daya terlihat secara tidak langsung melalui pasar atau langsung dengan survei. hal inilah yang disebut nilai non-pasar (non-market value). biaya marginal biasanya membahas masalah tambahan finansial yang hilang jika penggunaan sumber daya lingkungan dibatasi. sedangkan manfaat marginal biasanya membahas tentang tambahan manfaat yang sulit diukur dari proteksi terhadap lingkungan. biaya marginal sulit diukur sedangkan manfaat marginal dapat diukur. estimasi nilai per-unit dapat dilakukan bila telah dilakukan observasi langsung perilaku pasar atau observasi tak langsung bila nonpasar. teori nilai pasar (market values theory). informasi yang diperoleh dari pasar antara lain adalah transaksi jual-beli yang menyatakan pilihan. transaksi pembelian mengungkapkan bahwa manfaat marginal lebih besar daripada harga. transaksi penjualan menunjukkan bahwa biaya marginal lebih rendah daripada harga. dengan perubahan harga, hubungan antara harga dengan manfaat marginal dari pembeli dan biaya marginal dari penjual dapat diamati. bila harga meningkat, maka kuantitas barang yang dibeli menurun, dan sebaliknya kuantitas barang yang ditawarkan meningkat, seperti digambarkan pada gambar 1. manfaat marginal bagi pembeli adalah kemauan membayar marginal (marginal willingness to pay) pada sisi permintaan (demand). sedangkan biaya marginal bagi penjual adalah aplikasi individual travel cost method di area publik (evi gravitiani) 33 kemauan menerima marginal (marginal willingness to accept) pada sisi permintaan (supply). sumber: bennet, 2008 : 11 gambar 1. kurva biaya marginal dan manfaat marginal surplus konsumen yang diperoleh adalah perbedaan antara kemauan membayar (willingness to pay) dengan harga barang tersebut. sedangkan surplus produsen adalah perbedaan antara kemauan menerima (willingness to accept) dengan harga barang tersebut. teori nilai non-pasar (non-market values). nilai yang diperoleh daripilihan jawaban atas pertanyaan pada survey mengenai barang lingkungan adalah nilai yang tidak ada harga pasarnya (non market values). nilai ini diarahkan untuk melakukan estimasi pada perubahan surplus konsumen karena perubahan penawaran barang lingkungan. barang lingkungan diasumsikan sebagai barang publik dapat dikonsumsi oleh semua orang. perubahan pada biaya marginal (marginal cost=mc), dimana kurva mc bergeser dari mc ke mc2 karena adanya perubahan penawaran barang lingkungan (gambar 2). surplus konsumen setelah adanya perubahan penawaran menjadi segitiga axz dan surplus produsen menjadi segitiga zxy, maka perubahan surplus total adalah xbcy. travel cost method. travel cost method (tcm) diturunkan dari pemikiran yang dikembangkan oleh hotteling pada tahun 1931, yang kemudian secara formal diperkenalkan oleh wood dan trice (1958) serta clawson dan knetsch (1966). metode ini kebanyakan digunakan untuk menganalisis permintaan terhadap rekreasi di alam terbuka (outdoor recreation), seperti memancing, berburu, hiking dan sebagainya. sumber: bennet, 2008:15 gambar 2. kurva perubahan biaya marginal secara prinsip metode ini mengkaji biaya yang dikeluarkan setiap individu untuk mendatangi tempat-tempat rekreasi. asumsi mendasar yang digunakan pada pendekatan tcm adalah bahwa utilitas dari setiap konsumen terhadap aktivitas, misalnya rekreasi, bersifat dapat dipisahkan (separable). oleh karena itu, fungsi permintaan kegiatan rekreasi tersebut tidak dipengaruhi oleh permintaan kegiatan lainnya seperti menonton, berbelanja, dan lain-lain. konsep tcm adalah metode yang digunakan berdasarkan komplementeri antara barang wisata dan barang yang digunakan untuk bepergian sampai ke daerah tujuan wisata. biaya perjalanan digunakan sebagai proksi atas daerah wisata, jika biaya total meningkat maka banyaknya kunjungan menurun, sehingga: tingkat kunjungan=f(biaya perjalanan, pendapatan, umur, jumlah anak, kesehatan….) perubahan biaya perjalanan dan prediksi perubahan jumlah pengunjung untuk menciptakan fungsi permintaan. metode valuasi ini memerlukan data biaya transportasi ke tempat tujuan wisata, jumlah marginal cost rp 0 q/t marginal benefit marginal cost1 marginal benefit marginal cost q/t rp a z p y c 0 x b w r q jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 11, nomor 1, april 2010: 30-37 34 kunjungan dalam kurun waktu tertentu, lokasi domisili, dan faktor sosial ekonomi (seperti pendapatan, umur, jumlah anggota keluarga, tingkat pendidikan). data tersebut digunakan untuk menyusun demand curve individu maupun agregat. area di bawah kurva permintaan adalah estimasi nilai ekonomi tujuan wisata tersebut. tcm dibedakan menjadi dua, yaitu individual travel cost method (itcm) dan zonal travel cost method (ztcm). itcm digunakan untuk menghitung tingkat kunjungan per individu pada satu periode waktu. hal tersebut disebabkan karena adanya faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi seseorang secara khusus, sehingga didapatkan adanya penggunaan terbatas, misalkan ada daerah wisata yang jarang dikunjungi. pada ztcm, pengunjungnya berkelompok, karena adanya faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi banyaknya kunjungan yang merupakan rata-rata dari zona yang lain, sehingga tingkat kunjungan dihitung dengan formulasi sebagai berikut: tersebut wilayahdi populasi kunjunganbanyaknya njungantingkat ku  hipotesis. hipotesis yang diambil pada penelitian ini adalah area taman pintar di yogyakarta memberikan benefit bagi masyarakat. tujuan yang dicapai dalam penelitian ini adalah (1) mengidentifikasikan dan melakukan penilaian moneter manfaat yang diterima para pengunjung taman pintar, (2) membuat perkiraan kurva permintaan untuk pengunjung taman pintar, dan (3) menghitung surplus konsumen yang dinikmati pengunjung taman pintar. metode penelitian jenis data penelitian ini menggunakan data primer dan data sekunder. data primer yang diperlukan adalah data banyaknya kunjungan dan biaya perjalanan. banyak kunjungan dinyatakan dalam jumlah kunjungan ke taman pintar selama satu tahun. biaya perjalanan yang ditanggung oleh seseorang pulang pergi ke taman pintar dinyatakan dalam moneter. data sekunder berupa data-data pendukung yang tidak langsung berhubungan dengan masyarakat diperoleh dari instansi yang berkaitan dengan studi ini. teknik pengambilan sampel sampel adalah suatu cara dimana seorang peneliti menggunakan orang; tempat; atau apapun untuk keperluan studi, yang merupakan bagian dari populasi yang dianggap mewakili untuk dijadikan obyek penelitian, yang disebut dengan kerangka sampel(trochim, 2002: 211). ukuran sampel yang digunakan berdasarkan formula watson et al. (1993),pada persamaan:      2 2 ½ 1.4 pp n    1) dimana: n adalah ukuran sampel, p adalah proporsi kesuksesan yang diharapkan dari sampel, q adalah proporsi sisa (1-p), z½ adalah koefisien konfidensi,  adalah jumlah kesalahan yang dapat ditoleransi dari rerata populasi pada batas kiri (l) dan batas kanan (r), sehingga =l+r. asumsi yang digunakan adalah p=95% dan q=5%, =5% dan z½=1,96; l=r=5% sehingga =10%.   2 2 )05,0,2( )05,0).(95,0.()96,1.(4 n 01,0 729904,0 n orangn 739904,72  pengambilan responden dilakukan secara random sebanyak 100 orang yang diwawancarai di taman pintar, lebih dari jumlah minimal sebanyak 73 orang. data yang diperlukan dikumpulkan dengan tehnik wawancara langsung (dengan panduan daftar pertanyaan/kuisioner). data dikumpulkan pada bulan juni-juli 2009. jumlah pengunjung yang menjadi responden diambil pada beberapa hari kerja dan akhir pekan. aplikasi individual travel cost method di area publik (evi gravitiani) 35 profil responden dan taman pintar responden dalam penelitian ini yang berjenis kelamin laki-laki sebanyak 44 orang dan 56 orang berjenis kelamin perempuan. sebagian besar berusia antara 25 tahun sampai dengan 35 tahun (80 persen). pendidikan responden sebagian besar adalah d3 dan s1, sebanyak 75 persen; slta sebanyak 20 persen, dan sebanyak 5 persen berpendidikan sltp. penghasilan responden per-bulan terbanyak adalah rp1.000.000,sampai dengan rp2.000.000,(68 persen), dan sebanyak 32 persen responden berpenghasilan per-bulan antara rp250.000,sampai dengan rp750.000,-. seluruh responden sudah berkunjung ke taman pintar rata-rata sebanyak 6,46 kali dalam setahun. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa taman pintar merupakan tempat tujuan wisata edukatif yang cukup diminati. selain tempatnya yang mudah dijangkau, fasilitas edukasi, dan fasilitas lainnya membuat pengunjung merasa nyaman dan menjadi lebih pintar. taman pintar memiliki berbagai wahana edukasi. area outdoornyaberisi bak pasir, kolam air mancur, serta rumah-rumahan pohon. area indoor taman pintar memiliki lima zona, yaitu gedung oval, gedung kotak, kios buku, playground dan pendidikan anak usia dini serta plaza sriwedani. metode analisis data model yang digunakan menggambarkan banyaknya kunjungan sebagai fungsi dari biaya perjalanan, waktu yang diperlukan untuk perjalanan, tempat pengganti dan penghasilan. bk = f (op, w, tp, i) 2) dimana: bk adalah banyak kunjungan bila tanpa pungutan masuk; op adalah biaya perjalanan pulang-pergi ke taman pintar; w adalah waktu yang dibutuhkan pulang-pergi ke taman pintar; tp adalah tempat pengganti yang tersedia; iadalah pendapatan. apabila ada pungutan masuk maka model berubah menjadi: bk = f (op+t, w, tp, i) 3) dimana t menunjukkan nilai tiket/pungutan masuk. multikolinearitas antara biaya perjalanan dengan waktu yang dibutuhkan pulang pergi ke taman pintar dapat dihindari dengan variabel waktu dinyatakan dalam nilai moneter dan ditambahkan pada biaya perjalanan. variabel waktu dinilai dengan penghasilan yang hilang selama perjalanan pulang pergi. variabel tempat pengganti dinyatakan dalam nilai moneter, yang dinilai dengan biaya perjalanan ditambah biaya waktu untuk mengunjungi tempat rekreasi lain. dengan demikian modelnya menjadi: bk = f (btm, btp, i) 4) dimana: bk adalah banyak kunjungan; btm adalah biaya total (biaya perjalanan + biaya waktu perjalanan pulang pergi) kunjungan ke taman pintar; btp adalah biaya total (biaya perjalanan + biaya waktu perjalanan pulang pergi) kunjungan ke tempat lain; i adalah pendapatan. hasil dan pembahasan analisis hasil regresi bentuk fungsi permintaaan adalah dalam bentuk linier: bk = α0 +α1btm +α2btp +α3i 5) model dasar dalam bentuk linear ditransformasikan ke dalam bentuk logaritma natural, sehingga: ln bk = α0 +α1ln btm +α2ln btp +α3ln i 6) persamaan regresi yang diperoleh adalah sebagai berikut: ln y = 0,435 + 0,191ln btm 0,167 ln btp+ 0,152ln i + e interpretasi hasil regresinya sebagai berikut: (1) saat biaya total kunjungan ke taman pintar, jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 11, nomor 1, april 2010: 30-37 36 biaya total kunjungan ke tempat lain, dan pendapatan tetap atau konstan, maka perubahan nilai banyaknya kunjungan sebesar 0,435 persen; (2) jika perubahan biaya total kunjungan ke taman pintar (btm) meningkat sebesar 1 persen maka perubahan banyaknya kunjungan akan meningkat sebesar 0,191 persen, ceteris paribus; (3) jika perubahan biaya total kunjungan ke tempat lain (btp) meningkat sebesar 1 persen maka perubahanbanyaknya kunjungan akan menurun sebesar 0,167 persen, ceteris paribus; (4) jika perubahan pendapatan naik sebesar 1 persen maka perubahanbanyaknya kunjungan akan meningkat sebesar 0,152 persen, ceteris paribus; (5) variabel biaya total kunjungan ke taman pintar (btm), biaya total kunjungan ke tempat lain (btp), dan pendapatan (i) secara keseluruhan menunjukkan nilai sebesar 0,662, maka hubungan antara variabel bebas dan variabel dependen sangat kuat; (6) nilai hasil perubahan 43 persen yang terjadi pada banyaknya kunjungan di taman pintar dipengaruhi oleh perubahan yang terjadi pada biaya total kunjungan ke taman pintar, biaya total kunjungan ke tempat lain, dan pendapatan. sedangkan 57 persen dikarenakan adanya perubahan variasi lain yang tidak disebutkan dalam penelitian ini (variabel pengganggu); (7) pengaruh biaya total kunjungan ke taman pintar terhadap banyaknya kunjungansecara individu dan secara parsial adalah signifikan antara variabel total biaya kunjungan terhadap banyaknya kunjungan; dan (8) pada model ini tidak terjadi masalah autokorelasi, multikolinearitas, dan heteroskedastisitas. permintaan rekreasi hasil estimasi kurva permintaan diketahui bahwa jumlah kunjungan ke taman pintar (bk) dipengaruhi oleh biaya perjalanan (btm), biaya pengganti (btp) dan pendapatan (i). fungsi permintaannya adalah: ln bk = 0,435 + 0,191ln btm 0,167 ln btp + 0,152ln i perhitungan permintaan rekreasi dapat digunakan pendekatan biaya perjalanan. biaya perjalanan rata-rata adalah rp17.161,dan pendapatan rata-rata adalah rp1.254.800,maka banyaknya kunjungan rata-rata adalah 2.289 kali pertahun. elastisitas harga menunjukkan bahwa setiap ada perubahan biaya perjalanan sebesar 100 persen, akan direspon masyarakat dengan kenaikan jumlah kunjungan sebesar 1,43 persen. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa permintaan rekreasi bersifat elastis (>1). elastisitas pendapatanmenyatakan bahwa bila ada kenaikan pendapatan 100 persen, kunjungan ke taman pintar naik 83,32 persen. nilai ekonomi taman pintar nilai ekonomi taman pintar dapat dilihat dari persamaan regresinya: ln bk= 0,435 + 0,191ln btm 0,167 ln btp+ 0,152ln i + e asumsi yang digunakan adalah banyaknya kunjungan (bk) hanya dipengaruhi oleh biaya perjalanan ke taman pintar, ceteris paribus, pada tingkat pendapatan rata-rata sebesar: rp1.254.800, maka bk =0,435 + 0,191ln btm secara grafis dapat digambarkan kurva permintaannya dalam gambar3. gambar 3. kurva permintaan pada tingkat pendapatan rata-rata btm 17.161 526 100 2.289 bk aplikasi individual travel cost method di area publik (evi gravitiani) 37 berdasarkan kurva permintaan dapat dilakukan perhitungan surplus konsumen rata-rata setiap individu pertahun cs = 17.161∫5260,435 + 0,191 ln btm δbtm = 17.161∫5260,435 + 0,191 ln btm sehingga perhitungan total pengeluaran (te) dapat dilakukan dengan te = rp526,x bk = rp526,x 2.289 = rp1.204.014, simpulan (1) banyaknya kunjungan ke taman pintar dipengaruhi secara positif dan signifikan oleh biaya total kunjungan ke taman pintar, biaya total kunjungan ke tempat pengganti selain taman pintar, dan pendapatan pengunjung; (2) korelasi antara banyaknya kunjungan dan biaya total kunjungan ke taman pintar, biaya total kunjungan ke tempat pengganti selain taman pintar, dan pendapatan pengunjung sangat kuat; (3) biaya perjalanan rata-rata adalah rp17.161, dan pendapatan rata-rata adalah rp1.254.800, maka banyaknya kunjungan rata-rata adalah 2.289 kali pertahun; (4) adanya perubahan biaya perjalanan sebesar 100 persen, akan direspon masyarakat dengan kenaikan jumlah kunjungan sebesar 1,43 persen. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa permintaan rekreasi bersifat elastis (>1); (5) bila ada kenaikan pendapatan 100 persen, kunjungan ke taman pintar naik 83,32 persen; dan (6) nilai ekonomi taman pintar yang dihitung dengan total pengeluaran pengunjung adalah rp1.204.014,-. daftar pustaka bennet, jeff. 2008.valuation tools in environmental economics. eepsea module. thailand. caulkins, p.p., richard c. bishop dan nicolaas w.bouwes, sr. 1986. the travel cost model for lake recreation: a comparison of two methods for incorporating site quality and subtitution effect. amer. j. agr. econ. mei. common, m 1996. environmental and resources economics, an introduction. new york: addison wesley longman publishing. kling, c.l. 1988. the reliability of estimates of environmental benefit from recreation demand models, amer. j. agr. econ., november. lee, james a. 1999. natural resources and environmental economic, 2nd edition, london: pearson education limited. reksohadiprodjo, s. dan a.b. purnomo. 1992. ekonomi lingkungan, suatu pengantar. yogyakarta: bpfe ugm. saptono, chairul agus. 2000. valuasi ekonomi area publik: studi kasus stadion manahan di solo, tesis program pascasarjana universitas gadjah mada, yogyakarta, tidak dipublikasikan. seller, c., john r. stoll dan jean-paul chavas. 1985. validation of empirical measures of welfare change: a comparison of nonmarket techniques. land economics, 61(2). smith, v.k. 1988. selection and recreation demand. america journal of agro economics. smith, v.k., william h. desvousges dan ann fisher. 1986. a comparison of direct and indirect methods for estimating environmental benefit. america journal of agro economics, mei. tientenberg, tom. 1992. environment and natural resources economics, third edition, new york: harper collins publisher. trochim, william m. 2002. the research methods knowledge base. http:// trochim.human. cornell.edu/kb/index.htm watson, c.j., p. ballingsley., d.j croft., and d.v. hundsberger. 1993. statistic for management and economics. englewood cliffs, nj, usa: prentice hall, inc. world bank. 2001.the quality of growth.new york: oxford university press. convert jpg to pdf online convert-jpg-to-pdf.net jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 24 nomor 1, april 2023 article type: research paper the role of sharia microfinance in micro business development ayif fathurrahman* and choironi mutmainah abstract: this study aims to determine how the differences in sales turnover, the number of workers, the number of goods sold, and the number of customers before and after receiving financing at bmt artha amanah sanden. this research is a type of quantitative descriptive research. the subjects in the study were microentrepreneurs who received the financing at bmt artha amanah sanden. regarding the fundamental issues in microbusiness which are capital and connections, this research is important to show the real form of establishing an effective and mutually reinforcing islamic economic ecosystem. in this study, a sample of 50 micro-entrepreneurs were selected by the survey method. the data collection techniques in this study used questionnaires and interviews. the analytical tool used was non-parametric analysis method of the wilcoxon sign rank test. based on the results of the analysis, it is found that: (1) there is a difference between sales turnover before and after financing from bmt artha amanah kc sanden. (2) there is a difference between the number of workers before and after financing from bmt artha amanah kc sanden. (3) there is a difference between the number of goods sold before and after financing from bmt artha amanah kc sanden. (4) there is a difference between the number of customers before and after financing from bmt artha amanah kc sanden. keywords: business development; micro business; baitul maal wat tamwil (bmt) jel classification: g21; f62 introduction one of the drivers of the indonesian economy that empowers the interests of society is micro, small, and medium enterprises (msmes). micro, small and medium enterprises as economic players are able to absorb a large workforce, are able to increase income distribution evenly, as well as in accelerating economic growth in order to realize national stability and economic stability (ritonga, 2019). considering the condition of the world economy, at the time of experiencing the global financial crisis or what is popularly known as the monetary crisis which had an impact on the rupiah exchange rate declining against the us dollar, the price of goods soared, many people were laid off, and social crises such as riots, looting, and acts of anarchy occurred. as a result, this situation worsened the economy of indonesia. affiliation: department of economics, faculty of economics and business, universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta, special region of yogyakarta, indonesia *correspondence: ayief_ospp@yahoo.com this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v24i1.17856 citation: fathurrahman, a., & mutmainah, c. (2023). the role of sharia microfinance in micro business development. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 24(1), 242258. article history received: 09 feb 2023 revised: 19 apr 2023 11 may 2023 accepted: 18 may 2023 https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?user=hjfx9riaaaaj&hl=en https://economics-feb.umy.ac.id/ https://economics-feb.umy.ac.id/ https://economics-feb.umy.ac.id/ https://economics-feb.umy.ac.id/ https://economics-feb.umy.ac.id/ mailto:ayief_ospp@yahoo.com http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp http://dx.doi.org/10.18196/jesp.v24i1.17856 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v24i1.17856&domain=pdf fathurrahman & mutmainah the role of sharia microfinance in micro business development jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 243 on the other hand, the economic sector that was affected by the monetary crisis was the micro, small, and medium economy sector. even so, the micro, small, and medium business sector continued to strive to stand firm and strengthen the economic conditions at that time. based on data from the central bureau of statistics, the number of msmes during the monetary crisis did not decrease but increased in growth. the number of msmes in indonesia in 2021 reached around 65.46 million. in 2021, indonesian msmes were recorded to be able to absorb 97% of the workforce, contribute 60.3% to the gross domestic product (gdp), and contribute 14.4% to national exports. despite the uncertain health and global conditions, the national economy still requires considerable support. the state budget plays an important role in facing the impact of the covid19 pandemic and is a countercyclical instrument for the weakening of the economy. during the pandemic, micro, small, and medium enterprises (msmes) were one of the sectors that were significantly affected, one of which was the impact of the policy of limiting people's movements. in fact, based on bps data, msmes made a major contribution to the national economy. government support for msmes as part of the pcpen program reached idr 157.7 trillion in 2020, idr 117.3 trillion in 2021, and idr 64.68 trillion in 2022. contributed by this stimulus in the business world, the condition of msmes has experienced a decline at the beginning of the pandemic in 2020 with a contribution to gdp of 37.3% and employment of 73%. however, it can quickly increase again in 2021 so that its contribution to gdp becomes 61.9% with employment reaching 97% (majalah treasury indonesia, 2022). based on the description above, msmes have an important role for economic stability and have also been proven to exist when the monetary crisis occurred, they did not depend too much on debt or loans from foreign parties and imported raw materials (fakhrunnas, 2020), although they still need the government's attention, especially after this covid 19. msmes are able to grow considerable self-confidence, especially in financing and managing their own businesses without involving foreign interference. likewise, in terms of capital and raw material aspects, msmes rely on domestic sources so that the use of national resources can be optimized. in addition, msmes can also absorb labor and provide opportunities for msmes to compete with large companies (maryati, 2014). in addition to contributing a lot, msmes also have various obstacles and problems, especially in the first case, financially or lack of capital, both in quantity and in terms of sources, due to the limited access faced by msme to receive financing from formal financial institutions such as banks, causing them to borrow capital in easy way from relatives, family, or loan sharks (aisyah, 2018; faisol, 2017; feyisa & tamene, 2019; rini, 2017; godke veiga & mccahery, 2019). second, the lack of managerial skills and operating skills in organizing and limited marketing (abror et al., 2019; aisyah, 2018; saleh et al., 2017; suhartanto et al., 2019). third, the skills of msme actors in terms of business management are still traditional, and also the quality of human resources (hr) is inadequate. to overcome the problems faced by msmes, a microfinance institution is needed which is expected to be able to develop better msmes. fathurrahman & mutmainah the role of sharia microfinance in micro business development jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 244 microfinance institutions can be interpreted as financial institutions that provide funding for people with low incomes. according to ngehneu and nimbo as cited in ali et al. (2013), microfinance institutions are financial institutions that provide opportunities for poor people who want to develop or build a business through financial services including small credit, savings, micro-insurance, and money transfers. in addition, according to siyad (2013), micro-institutions enable the poor to increase their sources of income in order to expand or build new business opportunities. the sharia-based microfinance institution that is widely known by the public is baitul maal wat tamwil (bmt). bmt is one of the islamic financial institutions in indonesia where its activities are based on sharia principles with two main functions, namely baitul maal (the collection of funds, such as zakat, infaq, shodaqoh) and baitul tamwil (collection and distribution of commercial funds or profit oriented) (soemitro, 2009). in addition to sharia principles which are the basis for bmt in carrying out its activities (operational), bmt also uses an approach model, namely by assisting its customers, in this way bmt can foster more trust in its members so that from time to time bmt continues to grow. bmt as a community economic institution also aims to support the economic activities of the lower and small people which are run based on islamic sharia which can help and alleviate the economic problems faced by fellow muslims in order to achieve benefit. baitul maal wat tamwil (bmt) which is the focus of this research is bmt artha amanah kc sanden. bmt artha amanah kc sanden is one of the bmts that continues to experience development from year to year. this can be seen from the data presented that the growth rate of bmt artha amanah sanden's assets over the last 10 years has always increased. the number of assets owned by bmt artha amanah sanden has increased from the period 2010 to 2019. in general, the increase in the total assets of bmt artha amanah sanden is an average of rp. 5,475,337,410.8 annually. bmt artha amanah sanden branch office is a bmt that grows and develops very well in channeling and raising funds from the community, as well as in providing micro business financing. hence, with the financing provided by bmt, it is hoped that micro enterprises will be able to develop better and progressive which can be seen through the differences before and after receiving financing. this financing can be said to be successful if there is development of micro enterprises after receiveing the financing, conversely if there is no development of micro enterprises after receiveing the financing, then the financing can be said to have been unsuccessful. according to chandra (2000), an increase in sales turnover is an indicator that a business is experiencing growth. in addition, researchers kim and choi, (1994); lee and miller, (1996); lou, (1999); miles at al., (2000); hadjimanolis, (2000) as cited from sholeh (2008), stated that the development of micro enterprises can be marked by the number of sales turnover, the number of workers, and the number of customers. a business can be said to develop when the amount of income increases (sales turnover increases) followed by an increase in goods sold, which means that buyers or customers also increase so that fathurrahman & mutmainah the role of sharia microfinance in micro business development jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 245 micro enterprises will be stimulated to increase their workforce to serve buyers/customers well which will affect increased profits. based on the results of the previous analysis, according to research conducted by yuliani et al. (2019), it proves that business capital, sales turnover, and business profits have increased between before and after obtaining financing from bmt. furthermore, the results of research conducted by kartawinata et al. (2020) show that sales turnover, labor, and customers have increased between before and after financing from islamic financial institutions. then, the research conducted by jubaedah and destiana (2015) shows that sharia financing with mudharabah and musyarakah contracts has a significant positive influence on the development of assets, sales turnover, and net income of msmes. in addition, research conducted by anggraeni et al. (2013) revealed that bmt sharia financing has a positive and significant effect on business profits. the research gap is an empirical study related to the ability of islamic microfinance institutions to assist micro entrepreneurs. this study aims to examine in more detail the role of islamic microfinance institutions on the success of micro business. second, this research is identified as serial micro-entrepreneurs on what personal skills they possessed after financing by microfinance institutions. then, they were compared to before financing. the novelty of this study is the focus on examining the role of islamic microfinance for small businesses in terms of finance size institutionally. regarding the fundamental issues in microbusiness which are capital and connections, this research is important to show the real form of establishing an effective and mutually reinforcing islamic economic ecosystem. specifically, for this connection problem, bmt is very strategic in supporting micro business institutions, for example sharing information, systems, and networks. research method data and sample this research was conducted at bmt artha amanah sanden which is located on jalan sanden murtigading, bantul, special region of yogyakarta. the sample in this study is micro business actors who are customers of bmt artha amanah sanden who use financing to develop their business. the type of data used in this research is quantitative data. the data in this study used primary data, namely data obtained based on direct field observations from sources who were research subjects through interviews, questionnaires, and observation periods oktober 2021-april 2022. the variables to be tested are sales turnover, number of workers, number of goods sold and number of customers. the sample used in this study is micro business actors who apply for and obtain channeling of funds from bmt artha amanah sanden using the method of non probablity with survey reserch method. survey fathurrahman & mutmainah the role of sharia microfinance in micro business development jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 246 research is research that takes samples from one population and uses a questionnaire as the main data collection tool. data analysis the normality test aims to determine whether the data in question is normally distributed or not by testing the distribution of the data being analyzed. the analytical tool used to test the normality of the data is the kolmogrov smirnov test (kuncoro, 2009). folllowing cuong pham and xuan hong nguyen (2019), this study used the wilcoxon sign power to test the hypothesis. wilcoxon test is the best method for non parametric research. the wilcoxon rank test can also be used as a different test (comparison) where the data studied comes from the same number of respondents and relates to different observation periods (before and after obtaining financing from bmt artha amanah sanden for micro enterprises which are the members). after the variables are tested for wilcoxon's sign, the z value and probability (p) will appear. if probability (p) > 0.05 then h0 is accepted, if probability (p) < 0.05 then ha is accepted. the significance of this study will compare ztable and zcount. according to soehianie (year) as cited (herdian, 2015), the statistical test for the average is the z value of the average, because α = 5%, the corresponding critical value from the table is z 0.025 = 1.96 and – z 0.025 (test 2 tails) . the critical area is z > 1.96 or z < -1.96. result and discussion normality test the table 1 shows the results of the normality test analysis using the kolmogorov-smirnov test on sales turnover, labor, number of goods sold, and number of customers before and after receiving financing. to see the results of the normality test, it can be seen from the asymp.sig (2tailed) value. if the value of asymp.sig (2tailed) > 0.05 then the data is declared normally distributed. if the value is < 0.05 then the data is not normally distributed. table 1 normality test result one-sample in kolmogorov-smirnov test test statictic asym. sig. (2tailed) sales turnover before 0.236 0.000c after 0.264 0.000c labor before 0.502 0.000c after 0.412 0.000c number of items sold before 0.359 0.000c after 0.373 0.000c number of customers before 0.194 0.000c after 0.165 0.002c fathurrahman & mutmainah the role of sharia microfinance in micro business development jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 247 data hypothesis testing and data analysis wilcoxon sign rank test in this study, the data on the development of micro-enterprises are analyzed before and after receiving financing at bmt artha amanah kc sanden. sales turnover variable the results of the analysis using the wilcoxon sign power test on sales turnover before and after obtaining financing are as follows: table 2 statistics test on sales turnover descriptive sales turnover before after n 50 50 mean 12686400,00 23782800,00 std. deviation 12488928,282 27744521,727 minimum 1500000 2250000 maximum 60000000 120000000 from the descriptive statistical test table 2, it shows that before receving financing from bmt artha amanah kc sanden, the sales turnover of micro business actors had a minimum value of idr 1,500,000 and a maximum value of idr 120,000,000 with an average of idr 12,686,400.00. after the financing from bmt artha amanah kc sanden increased with a minimum value of idr 2,250,000 and a maximum value of idr 120,000,000 with an average of idr 23,782,800.00. table 3 sales turnover wilcoxon signed test n mean rank sum of ranks after negative ranks 0a 0,00 0,00 before positive ranks 48b 24,50 1176, 00 ties 2c total 50 the table 3 shows a comparison of sales turnover before and after receiving financing at bmt artha amanah kc sanden. there were 0 respondents, which means that there were no respondents whose sales turnover after receiving financing was smaller than before receiving financing. meanwhile, 2 respondents remained, and 48 respondents had turnover greater sales than before receiving financing. table 4 difference test results on sales turnover opafter – opbefore z -6,037b asymp. sig. (2-tailed) 0,000 fathurrahman & mutmainah the role of sharia microfinance in micro business development jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 248 the table 4 shows the results of the calculation of the wilcoxon signed power test, a z value of -6.037 was obtained with a pvalue or asymp. sig. (2-tailed) of 0.000 where the value is less than the limit of 0.05 and the value of zcount -6.037 <-1.96. based on the results, the hypothesis ha1 is accepted, which means that there is a significant difference between sales turnover before and after receiving financing from bmt artha amanah kc sanden. furthermore, these differences can be seen from the figure 1. figure 1 sales turnover before and after receiving financing based on the figure 1, the difference in sales turnover before and after obtaining financing at bmt artha amanah kc sanden can be observed. thus, it can be concluded that there was an increase in the number of respondents' sales turnover after receiving financing at bmt artha amanah sanden which is 87.47%. number of labor variable the results of the analysis using the wilcoxon rank test for the number of workers before and after receiving financing are as follows: table 5 descriptive statistical test of the number of labor number of labor before after n 50 50 mean 0,16 0,58 std. deviation 6,18 1,486 minimum 0 0 maximum 4 7 62% 16% 14% 2% 4% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 40% 28% 12% 4% 4% 2% 0% 2% 4% 0% 4% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 fathurrahman & mutmainah the role of sharia microfinance in micro business development jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 249 from the table 5, it shows that before receiving financing from bmt artha amanah kc sanden, the number of micro business actors shows a minimum value of 0 people and a maximum value of 4 people with an average of 0.16. after receiving financing from bmt artha amanah kc sanden, the range of workers obtains a minimum value of 0 people and a maximum value of 7 people with an average of 0.58. table 6 wilcolxon signed elevation test on the number of labor n mean rank sum of ranks tkafter negative ranks 0a 0,00 0,00 tkbefore positive ranks 12b 6,50 78,00 ties 38c total 50 the table 6 illustrates a comparison of the number of workers before and after receiving financing at bmt artha amanah kc sanden. there were 0 respondents, which means that there were no respondents showing that the number of workers after receiving financing was smaller than before receiving financing, 38 permanent respondents, and 12 respondents had a larger number of workers than before receiving financing. table 7 difference test of number of labor tkafter tkbefore z -3,165b asymp. sig. (2-tailed) 0,002 the table 7 shows the results of the calculation of the wilcoxon sign power test, a z value of -3.165 is obtained with a pvalue or asymp. sig. (2-tailed) of 0.002 where the value is less than the limit of 0.05 and the zcount value is -3.165 < -1.96 so that the hypothesis decision is ha2 is accepted, which means there is a significant difference between the number of workers before and after obtaining financing from bmt artha amanah kc sanden. furthermore, these differences can be seen from the figure 2. figure 2 total workforce before and after receiving financing 8 6 4 2 0 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 before after fathurrahman & mutmainah the role of sharia microfinance in micro business development jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 250 based on the figure 2, the difference in the number of workers before and after obtaining financing at bmt artha amanah kc sanden can be seen. it can be concluded that there is a difference and an increase in the number of respondents' workforce after obtaining financing at bmt artha amanah kc sanden, namely 262.50%. number of items sold the results of the analysis using the wilcoxon power sign test on the number of goods sold before and after obtaining financing are as follows: table 8 descriptive statistical test of number of goods sold number of items sold before after n 50 50 mean 3688, 20 8124, 00 std. deviation 6997, 393 19550, 316 minimum 60 90 maksimum 90 105000 the descriptive statistical test table 8 shows that before obtaining financing from bmt artha amanah kc sanden the number of goods sold by micro business actors with a minimum value of 60 and a maximum value of 90 with an average of 3688.20. after the financing from bmt artha amanah kc sanden, it increased with a minimum value of 90 and a maximum value of 105000 with an average of 8124.00. table 9 wilcoxon sign rank test of amount of goods sold n mean rank sum of ranks jbtafter negative ranks 0a 0,00 0, 00 jbtbefore positive ranks 47 b 24, 0 0 1128, 0 0 ties 3c total 50 the table 9 shows a comparison of the number of goods sold before and after obtaining financing at bmt artha amanah kc sanden. there were 0 respondents meaning that there were no respondents whose number of goods sold after obtaining financing was smaller than before obtaining financing. moreover, 3 permanent respondents and 47 respondents have a greater number of goods sold than before obtaining financing. table 10 different test results for the number of goods sold jbtafter -jbtbefore z -5, 972b asymp. sig. (2-tailed) 0, 000 the above 10 the results of the calculation of the wilcoxon sign power test. a z value of 5.972 is obtained with a p-value or asymp. sig. (2-tailed) of 0.000 which is less than the limit of 0.05 and the value of zcount of -5.972 < -1.96 so that the hypothesis decision of fathurrahman & mutmainah the role of sharia microfinance in micro business development jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 251 ha3 is accepted which means there is a significant difference between the number of goods sold before and after obtaining financing from bmt artha amanah kc. furthermore, these differences can be seen in the figure 3. figure 3 number of goods sold before and after receiving financing based on the figure 3, the difference in the number of goods sold before and after obtaining financing at bmt artha amanah kc sanden can be seen. it can be concluded that there was an increase in the number of items sold by respondents after obtaining financing at bmt artha amanah kc sanden, namely 120.27%. number of customers the results of the analysis using the wilcoxon power sign test on the number of customers before and after obtaining financing are as follows: table 11 descriptive statistical test of number of customers number of customers before after n 50 50 mean 274,20 399, 60 std. deviation 118,771 146, 524 minimum 120 180 maksimum 600 750 the table 11 shows that before obtaining financing from bmt artha amanah kc sanden the number of customers of micro business actors with a minimum value of 120 people and a maximum value of 600 people with an average of 274.20. after the financing from bmt artha amanah kc sanden, it increased with a minimum value of 180 and a maximum value of 750 with an average of 399.60. 20% 42% 20% 0% 9% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 10% 4% 32% 20% 14% 9% 4% 2% 2% 4% 2% 10% 0 5 10 15 20 25 fathurrahman & mutmainah the role of sharia microfinance in micro business development jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 252 table 12 wilcoxon sign elevation test number of customers n mean rank sum of ranks jpafter negative ranks 0a 0, 00 0, 00 jpbefore positive ranks 47b 24,00 1128, 00 ties 3c the table 12 shows a comparison of the number of customers before and after obtaining financing at bmt artha amanah kc sanden. there were 0 respondents meaning that there were no respondents whose result was smaller than before obtaining financing. 3 respondents remained in the same category, but 47 respondents had a larger total number of customers than before obtaining financing table 13 test results for different numbers of customers jpafter –jpbefore z -6, 009b asymp. sig. (2-tailed) 0, 000 the table 13 shows the results of the calculation of the wilcoxon sign power test. a z value of -6.009 is obtained with a p-value or asymp. sig. (2-tailed) of 0.000 where the value is less than the limit of 0.05 and the zcount value is -6.009 < -1.96 so that the hypothesis decision of ha4 is accepted which means there is a significant difference between the number of customers before and after obtaining financing from bmt artha amanah kc sanden. furthermore, these differences can be seen in the figure 4. figure 4 number of customers before and after obtaining financing based on the figure 4, the difference in the number of customers before and after obtaining financing at bmt artha amanah kc sanden can be seen. it can be concluded that there is a difference and an increase in the number of respondent customers after obtaining financing at bmt artha amanah kc sanden, namely 45.73%. 25 23 20 16 15 17 13 10 9 5 0 100-200 201-300 301-400 401-500 >500 after before fathurrahman & mutmainah the role of sharia microfinance in micro business development jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 253 discussion in this study, the differences between micro-enterprises before and after obtaining financing at bmt artha amanah sanden can be seen from sales turnover, number of workers, number of goods sold, and number of customers. the discussion is as follows: sales turnover the results of the comparison show the sales turnover before and after obtaining financing at bmt artha amanah kc sanden. out of 50 respondents, 0 respondents did not experience a decrease in sales turnover after obtaining financing, 48 respondents experienced an increase in sales turnover after obtaining financing, and 2 respondents did not experience changes (fixed) between before and after obtaining financing. with the financing from bmt artha amanah sanden, the development of microenterprises run by respondents (micro business actors) experienced an increase in sales turnover, increased business income, increased opportunities for business development, and fulfilled necessities of life. as stated by respondents to grocery stalls and food stalls, after obtaining financing from bmt artha amanah sanden, the majority of the use of financing was to develop their business, including adding the types of goods sold, increasing stock of goods (an increase in consumer demand), expanding the place of business and others. all of this is done to get an increased sales turnover. the more demand for goods or the number of goods, the more increased income. likewise for the javanese sugar dream cake business, sales turnover can increase after receiving financing due to the addition of the types of goods sold (1 type to 5 types), additional stock of goods due to increased demand (10 kg of rice flour to 50 kg of rice flour) in one day, being known by many people (had been invited to tvri), and the improved packaging (there is a p-irt office of health permit and identity of the respondent). from the statements of the respondents in the organic baby porridge business, they were aware that the organic baby porridge business was in great demand motivating the respondents to add branches and increase stock and types of goods. with an increased demand for goods, a large stock of goods, and sales turnover, profits will increase with the assumption of ceteris paribus or other factors are considered constant. this research is in accordance with the research conducted by putra and hutasuhut (2018) and yuliani et al. (2019) stating that there are significant differences in sales turnover indicators for msme development before and after obtaining financing from bmt. this is in line with the theory put forward by camelia and ridlwan (2018) explaining that a business experiencing development can be marked by an increase in business sales turnover because when more goods are sold, the business sales turnover increases and will affect business profits which also increase with ceteris paribus conditions (ceteris paribus) and other factors which are considered constant. fathurrahman & mutmainah the role of sharia microfinance in micro business development jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 254 number of workers the results of the comparison of the number of workers before and after obtaining financing from bmt artha amanah kc sanden show out of 50 respondents 0 respondents did not experience additional workers after obtaining financing, 12 respondents experienced additional workers after obtaining financing, and 38 respondents did not experience changes (fixed) between before and after obtaining financing. from the statements of the respondents (micro business actors) in the java sugar cake business, there is an increase in consumer demand, both the customers and the wider community making the micro business actors in the java sugar dream cake business increase their production of goods. as a result, it requires an additional workforce, which was initially 1 person then increased to 7 micro-entrepreneurs. along with the financing from bmt artha amanah kc sanden, this financing can be used to develop its business. similarly, the same condition applies to micro-business actors in the organic baby porridge business. seeing the prospect of demand for organic baby porridge, many enthusiasts encourage organic baby porridge micro-business actors to expand their business by opening several branches. thus, the organic baby porridge micro business actors have to add a workforce, who initially had 4 workers to 7 workers. the increase in buyers/customers for merchandise encourages micro-business actors to increase their production output so that the need for labor also increases. the same thing was also experienced by microbusiness actors selling meatball soup. they initially had 1 worker and after obtaining financing from bmt artha amanah kc sanden, they added 3 workers. this is due to an increase in buyers and customers. the business actors who initially had 1 meatball cart now have 3 meatball carts. this research is in accordance with the research conducted by kartawinata et al. (2020) and barokah and hanum (2016) stating that there is a significant difference in the number of workers in the development of msmes before and after obtaining financing from islamic financial institutions. this is in line with the theory put forward by camelia and ridlwan (2018} which explains that business development is marked by an increase in the number of workers. this is because the number of requests for goods sold is high, so a lot of labor is needed with ceteris paribus conditions (other factors are considered constant). number of items sold the results of the comparison of the number of goods sold before and after obtaining financing at bmt artha amanah kc sanden show that out of 50 respondents, 0 respondents did not experience a decrease in the number of goods sold after obtaining financing, and 47 respondents experienced an increase in the number of goods sold after obtaining financing. moreover, 3 respondents did not change (fixed) between before and after obtaining financing. fathurrahman & mutmainah the role of sharia microfinance in micro business development jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 255 there was an increase in the number of goods sold before and after obtaining financing in line with the increase in sales turnover before and after obtaining financing. for the indicators of goods sold, the highest increase was experienced by one of the grocery shop respondents. from the results of interviews with these respondents at the beginning of the establishment of the grocery, the business was still simple and occupied one area. however, after the financing from bmt artha amanah kc sanden, the respondents experienced an increasing number of interested buyers. the respondents tried to increase the number of goods sold and expand their place of business. this situation can be seen by the high number of goods sold which can reach 500% even though in terms of manpower it is managed alone. furthermore, in the javanese sugar dream cake business, the increase in goods sold can reach 400%. this situation is very relevant to the increasing demand for labor and the addition of raw materials. the same situation was also experienced by the leaf tempeh business which experienced an increase of 150%, the catfish seed business which experienced an increase of 133%, and the mobile meatball soup business which experienced a 100% increase. furthermore, most other businesses also experienced an increase in goods sold even though it was still below 100. %. from the description above, it can be concluded that the increase in goods sold can be influenced by increased buyer interest, increased customers, additional merchandise that buyers are interested in, seller service (friendly, honest, and transparent), a clean and comfortable place of business, and prices that are affordable by people with ceteris paribus conditions (other factors are considered fixed). this is in line with the theory put forward by camelia and ridlwan (2018) which explains that the increased number or type of commodity goods offered will affect the attractiveness of buyers so that the number of customers and goods sold increase which will affect the sales turnover and the operating profit to be obtained with ceteris paribus conditions (other factors are considered constant. number of customers the results of a comparison of the number of customers before and after obtaining financing at bmt artha amanah sanden show that out of 50 respondents, 0 respondents did not experience a decrease in the number of customers after obtaining financing, and 47 respondents experienced an increase in the number of customers after obtaining financing. moreover, 3 respondents did not experience a change (fixed ) between before and after obtaining financing. turnover increase. like the java sugar dream cake, the customers before the financing with the customers after obtaining financing have increased by 150%. this situation is in line with the increase in the number of goods sold before and after obtaining financing reaching 400% as well as the addition of manpower. the javanese sugar dream cake business is an example of a micro-enterprise that is experiencing rapid development in terms of sales turnover, the addition of goods sold, customers, and workforce. other micro-enterprises also experienced an increase in terms of sales turnover, goods sold, labor, and customers, but not as fast as the javanese sugar dream cake business. for other fathurrahman & mutmainah the role of sharia microfinance in micro business development jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 256 business actors, almost 94% experienced an increase in the number of customers after obtaining financing from bmt artha amanah kc sanden although it did not reach 100%. the research conducted by kartawinata et al. (2020) is in line with the research by saparingga et al. (2014) proving that there is a significant difference in the number of customers in the development of msmes before and after obtaining financing from islamic financial institutions. in line with the theory put forward by prastiawati and satya darma (2016), a business that experiences development is marked by an increase in business sales turnover followed by an increase in profits as well as the number of customers. in addition, if the workforce increases, it indicates that the customer's demand for the goods sold is high, so additional workers are needed to fulfill customer desires with ceteris paribus conditions (other factors are considered constant). conclusion this paper aims to determine the differences in the sales turnover, the number of workers, the number of goods sold, and the number of customers before and after using financing at bmt artha amanah sanden. the analytical tool used is the non-parametric analysis method of the wilcoxon sign rank test. based on the results of the analysis, it is found that: (1) there is a difference between sales turnover before and after financing from bmt artha amanah kc sanden. (2) there is a difference between the number of workers before and after financing from bmt artha amanah kc sanden. (3) there is a difference between the number of goods sold before and after financing from bmt artha amanah kc sanden. (4) there is a difference between the number of customers before and after financing from bmt artha amanah kc sanden. the implication of this research is that legally it is necessary to have instruments to strengthen sharia microfinance institutions from the government. secondly, islamic microfinance institutions are socially the right financial institutions to assist msmes. thirdly, sharia microfinance institutions economically have the advantage of advancing micro-entrepreneurs. theoretically, co-financing is an effective method of financing, especially microfinance financing. msmes also have various obstacles and problems, especially in the first case, financial or lack of capital, both in quantity and in terms of sources, due to the limited access faced by msmes actors to use financing in formal financial institutions such as banks, causing them to borrow capital in an easy way from relatives, family, or loan sharks (aisyah, 2018; faisol, 2017; feyisa & tamene 2019; rini, 2017; godke veiga & mccahery, 2019). second, the lack of managerial skills and operating skills in organizing and limited marketing (abror et al., 2019; aisyah, 2018; saleh et al., 2017; suhartanto et al., 2019). third, the skills of msmes actors in terms of business management are still traditional, and also the quality of human resources (hr) is inadequate. to overcome the problems faced by msmes, a microfinance institution is needed which is expected to be able to develop better msmes. the limitations of this study are the relatively small research data, due to limitations in managing customer data from islamic microfinance institutions. second, islamic fathurrahman & mutmainah the role of sharia microfinance in micro business development jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 257 microfinance institutions that are used as research objects are still very limited in number. a suggestion for further research is to increase the research data to conclude a representative pattern of financing between islamic microfinance institutions and microentrepreneurs. references abror, a., patrisia, d., engriani, y., evanita, s., yasri, y., & dastgir, s. 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(2023). determinants of short and longterm exchange market pressure in indonesia. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 24(1), 14-31. article history received: 22 sep 2022 revised: 31 jan 2023 13 feb 2023 accepted: 20 feb 2023 https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?user=2plylieaaaaj&hl=en https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?user=yvj6ctwaaaaj&hl=en https://feb.unila.ac.id/derpartements-of-economics/ https://feb.unila.ac.id/derpartements-of-economics/ https://feb.unila.ac.id/derpartements-of-economics/ https://feb.unila.ac.id/derpartements-of-economics/ mailto:heru.wahyudi@feb.unila.ac.id http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp http://dx.doi.org/10.18196/jesp.v24i1.16131 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v24i1.16131&domain=pdf wahyudi, palupi, & suparta determinants of short and long-term exchange market pressure in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 15 figure 1 exchange market pressure (emp) development from 2008:q1 to 2021:q4 source: bank indonesia the emp index is essential to feldkircher et al. (2014) research for two reasons. first, it is straightforward to perform mathematical calculations and economic analysis. second, the exchange market strain (emp) index can be used to measure the pressure on a country's foreign exchange market. the factors of the level of change in foreign exchange reserves (official reserves) and the pace of change in currency values explain why the base rate is lowered to alleviate emp pressure (exchange rate). global economic instability can exert significant pressure on the foreign exchange markets of developing countries like indonesia. the real sector was negatively impacted by excessive pressure on the currency rate, which also caused problems in the financial sector. additionally, pressure on the foreign exchange market can result in an excessive appreciation or depreciation of the exchange rate, which would be detrimental to indonesia’s economy (falianty & andhony, 2012). according to a study conducted by kyin et al., (2013), domestic credit growth is one of the variables that can explain the quantity of emp. it is impossible to disregard the significance of domestic credit development for an economy. when domestic credit growth develops, and foreign exchange reserves fall or diminish, the foreign exchange market may become more volatile or the exchange rate may depreciate. lestano (2010) discovered that the increase in domestic credit distributed by the monetary authority was proportional to the increase in domestic currency in circulation. this will undoubtedly have a detrimental effect on the stability of the local currency, particularly if the monetary authority does not exert control over the distribution of domestic credit growth. garcía and malet (2007) demonstrate that domestic credit creation positively affects emp. it will be simple for developing countries such as indonesia, which has a modest open economy and is one of the world's largest, to be impacted by instability in a big country such as the united states. according to the imf, during the american recession of 2008, a 1% fall in american economic growth would result in a 0.5–1% reduction in asian -15,00 -10,00 -5,00 0,00 5,00 10,00 15,00 2 0 0 8 :q 1 2 0 0 8 :q 3 2 0 0 9 :q 1 2 0 0 9 :q 3 2 0 1 0 :q 1 2 0 1 0 :q 3 2 0 1 1 :q 1 2 0 1 1 :q 3 2 0 1 2 :q 1 2 0 1 2 :q 3 2 0 1 3 :q 1 2 0 1 3 :q 3 2 0 1 4 :q 1 2 0 1 4 :q 3 2 0 1 5 :q 1 2 0 1 5 :q 3 2 0 1 6 :q 1 2 0 1 6 :q 3 2 0 1 7 :q 1 2 0 1 7 :q 3 2 0 1 8 :q 1 2 0 1 8 :q 3 2 0 1 9 :q 1 2 0 1 9 :q 3 2 0 2 0 :q 1 2 0 2 0 :q 3 2 0 2 1 :q 1 2 0 2 1 :q 3 wahyudi, palupi, & suparta determinants of short and long-term exchange market pressure in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 16 economic growth. the economic forecasts of asian countries, especially indonesia, would be impacted by the global recession that resulted from the american recession. as a result, indonesia's gdp growth could significantly impact the demands on the foreign exchange market. additionally, the current account balance has a considerable impact on emp. the current account balance variable is one of the most significant macroeconomic indicators of the economy. bank indonesia (2018) provides this statistic to gauge a country's economic strength based on trade in commodities and services, income from production inputs held, and money transfers such as worker remittances and grants. this indicates that the bigger the proportion of the current account balance to the economy, the greater the indications of domestic and international economic growth, increased investment revenue, and increased income from foreign employees. government initiatives to boost the domestic currency include increasing interest rates and maintaining foreign exchange reserves. therefore, the weighted average of the exchange rate and foreign exchange reserves can be utilized to calculate the emp index (pontines & siregar, 2008) found that monetary authorities will loosen by boosting domestic credit growth as the emp increases, domestic credit growth increases, and interest rates decline. this distinction is a result of a greater emp value increase. (jing, 2015) demonstrates that the banking crisis's beginning influences the currency crisis's beginning and vice versa. exchange market pressure (emp), a dependent variable, is used in this study to quantify the pressure on the fx market. the factors taken into account for calculating the emp data for indonesia from 2008:q1 to 2021:q4 include domestic credit growth, domestic credit growth, gdp growth, current account balance, and bi rate. based on this context, the authors will examine the longand short-term relationships between domestic credit growth, gdp growth, current account balance, and the bi rate of the emp in this study. they will then examine how the emp reacts to shocks from domestic credit growth, gdp growth, current account balance, and bi rate and their relative contributions to the emp. few studies on emp in indonesia have employed the current account balance and domestic credit growth factors; the novelty of this study is the combination of independent variables employed as well as the study year. research method the type of data used in this study is quantitative secondary data obtained from bank indonesia (bi) and statistics indonesia (bps) since 2008q1-2021q4. the analysis in this study used a time series methodology with a vector autoregression (var) approach. the unrestricted var and the vector error correction model are two other models for the vector autoregression method (vecm). if the data are stationary at the level, the unrestricted var model is employed, if all variables are cointegrated, and the data is stationary at the first difference level but not at the level, the vector error correction model is utilized (widarjono, 2018) . research conducted by sulistiana (2017) suggests that vecm offers an easy work procedure to separate long-run components and shortrun components from the data formation process, so vecm is different from var where wahyudi, palupi, & suparta determinants of short and long-term exchange market pressure in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 17 vecm can be used to model cointegrated and non-stationary time series data. the vecm model was chosen in this study because it is expected to be able to explain behavioral research variables in the long term (mardiana & prawoto, 2016). to determine how shocks brought on by the emp variable will affect the domestic credit growth variables, gdp growth, current account balance, and bi rate, impulse response function analysis was done. along with the examination of the impulse response function, variance decomposition analysis is also performed to determine the relative weights of the various variables, including the development of domestic credit, gdp, the current account balance, and the bi rate as a result of emp shocks. volatility decomposition is useful for estimating the percentage of each variable's variance that is attributable to changes in other variables. the equation for the study's vector error correction model (vecm) is as follows: long run equation empt = α0 + λ1dct−j − λ2pdbt−j − λ3cat−j − λ4irt−j + εt (1) short run equation: △ empt = α0 + ∑ β1 p i=1 △ dc1t−j − ∑ β2 p i=1 △ pdb2t−j − ∑ β3 p i=1 △ ca3t−j − ∑ β4 p i=1 △ ir4t−j + εt (2) in order to determine how shocks brought on by the emp variable would affect the domestic credit growth variables, gdp growth, current account balance, and bi rate, impulse response function analysis was carried out. where emp stands for exchange market pressure, dc for domestic credit growth, gdp for gdp growth, ca for current account balance, ir for bi rate, 1, 2 for long-term relationship coefficients, 1 2 for shortterm relationship coefficients, 0 for regression constants, and ect for error correction (lag 1, 2,...). result and discussion stationarity test perform a stationarity test utilizing the root test (unit root test) and the augmented dickey-fuller test (adf test) method to determine whether one of the assumptions in the time series data test using the vecm model analysis is true. non-stationary data results in false regression, a regression that describes the relationship between two or more statistically significant visible variables, when it is not (johari et al., 2022). the results are as follows: wahyudi, palupi, & suparta determinants of short and long-term exchange market pressure in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 18 table 1 augmented dickey-fuller (adf) level unit root test variable adf t-statistic critical value conclusion 1% 5% 10% emp -4.9285 -3.5550 -2.9155 -2.5955 stationary dc -1.1704 -3.5550 -2.9155 -2.5955 not stationary pdb -0.9047 -3.5550 -2.9155 -2.5955 not stationary ca -2.0378 -3.5550 -2.9155 -2.5955 not stationary ir -3.2376 -3.5550 -2.9155 -2.5955 stationary source: results of data processing on eviews 10, (2022) the adf method at the level is used to calculate the unit root test results in table 1. the t-count value is compared to the critical values for each variable, which are 1%, 5%, and 10%, respectively. conclusion: the dc, pdb, and ca variables are not stationary at the level; however, the emp and ir variables exhibit stationary data. in order to repeat the unit root test on the initial difference for each variable, the outcomes are as follows: table 2 augmented dickey-fuller (adf) first difference unit root test variable adf t-statistic critical value conclusion 1% 5% 10% emp -10.5072 -3.5550 -2.9155 -2.5955 stationary dc -4.9234 -3.5550 -2.9155 -2.5955 stationary pdb -7.3142 -3.5550 -2.9155 -2.5955 stationary ca -8.6203 -3.5550 -2.9155 -2.5955 stationary ir -6.3365 -3.5550 -2.9155 -2.5955 stationary source: results of data processing on eviews 10, (2022) for all stationary variables in the results mentioned above, table 2 displays the outcomes of the unit root at the first difference level. as a result, the information used in this study is organized in chronological order, or i (1). the following data processing stage can be completed now that the stationary requirements have been met. optimum lag determination the akaike information criterion (aic) value, which has a minimum absolute value, is a widely utilized methodology in this study. the table 3 displays the least akaike information criterion (aic) value at lag 2 based on the results of the optimal lag test conducted in this study utilizing eviews 10. based on table 3, the determination of the optimum lag used in this study is lag 2 for the var/vecm equation model in this study, then the lag used in the next test is lag 2. table 3 results of determination of optimum lag lag akaike information criterion (aic) 0 37.57512 1 33.53573 2 33.49814* 3 33.76744 source: results of data processing on eviews 10, (2022) information (*) : the smallest akaike information criterion (aic) value wahyudi, palupi, & suparta determinants of short and long-term exchange market pressure in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 19 stability test the stability of the estimated vecm equation system needs to be checked using a predefined lag and the vecm stability condition check, which looks for roots of characteristic polynomials and inverse roots of ar characteristic polynomials for all variables employed. a vecm system is deemed stable based on the test findings if all of its roots have a modulus that is less than one. based on the results of the vecm stability test in table 4 for this study, it can be said that the estimated vecm stability that will be utilized to analyze the impulse response function has been stable. this is because the modulus range is less than one. table 4 indicates that all equation models' modulus values are smaller than 1, supporting the validity of the vecm model. table 4 test results for the ar characteristic polynomial's roots root modulus 0.851350 0.239838i 0.884488 0.851350 + 0.239838i 0.884488 0.813049 0.813049 -0.662094 0.662094 0.444432 0.444432 0.325669 0.250804i 0.411051 0.325669 + 0.250804i 0.411051 -0.184160 0.184160 0.055487 0.172849i 0.181537 0.055487 + 0.172849i 0.181537 source: the results of data processing on eviews 10, (2022) cointegration test the model employed in this work can be estimated using vecm if cointegration at the level of differentiation exists; otherwise, it can be calculated using var. the johansen cointegration test was employed in this investigation. the johansen cointegration test's findings are as follows: table 5 cointegration test results hypothesized eigenvalue trace 0.05 prob.** no. of ce(s) statistic critical value none * 0.431039 87.25904 69.81889 0.0011 at most 1 * 0.395603 57.37001 47.85613 0.0050 at most 2 * 0.276786 30.68326 29.79707 0.0394 at most 3 0.136580 13.50861 15.49471 0.0974 at most 4 * 0.102395 5.725347 3.841466 0.0167 source: results of data processing on eviews 10, (2022) information (*) : the trace statistic value is greater than the critical value (0.05) inferred from table 5, the null hypothesis that there is no cointegration exists is rejected, and the alternative hypothesis—that there is cointegration—is accepted. the trace statistic and maximum eigenvalue at r = 0 are greater than the critical value with a wahyudi, palupi, & suparta determinants of short and long-term exchange market pressure in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 20 significant level of 5 percent, which is 87.2590, greater than 69.8188. as a result, the cointegration test results show a relationship between stability or balance and similarity of movements among the movements of the variables emp, dc, pdb, ca, and ir over the long term. alternately, all variables tend to adjust to one another during each short-run phase to reach their long-run equilibrium. therefore, the vector error correction model (vecm) rather than the variance autoregressive (var) should be used in this inquiry, as the variables are cointegrated and stationary at the first difference level. results of the vector error correction model estimation a vector error correction model is used to estimate the data when it is stationary on the order of first difference, stable, and cointegrated based on the test findings (vecm). long-term forecast based on the finding that the link between these variables is significant if t-count > t-table at a significance levels of 10% (1.6752), 5% (2.0075), and 1% respectively (2.6757). table 6 long-term vecm estimation results variable coefficient t-statistics information emp(-1) 1.000000 dc(-1) 5.722454 [1.95842]*** significant pdb(-1) -12.01779 [-4.69888]* significant ca(-1) -0.001048 [-0.84356] not significant ir(-1) 8.901398 [2.76938]* significant c -10.14666 source: results of data processing on eviews 10, (202 2) information [ ] : shows t-count * : based on the confidence level 9 0 % (α=1 0 %) ** : based on 95% confidence level (α=5%) *** : based on 99 % confidence level (α=1%) the results of the long-term vecm estimation (3) are: empt = −10.1466 + 1.0000empt−1 + 5.7224dct−1 − 12.0178pdbt−1 − 0.0010cat−1 + 8.9014irt−1 (3) the dependent variable emp and the independent factors provide the long-term estimate results (dc, pdb, ca, and ir). while the current account (ca) variable is not significant over the long term, the domestic credit growth variable (dc) is significant at a 90% level of confidence, the gdp growth variable and the bi rate (ir) are significant at a 99% level of confidence. the dc coefficient or domestic credit growth is 5.7224, and the coefficient has a significant positive relationship at the 90% confidence level or (=10%). it can be said that when there is an increase in domestic credit growth of 1 percent, it will cause an increase in emp by 5.7224 percent, ceteris paribus. the coefficient on gdp growth is 12.0178 percent, and has a significant negative relationship at the 99% confidence level wahyudi, palupi, & suparta determinants of short and long-term exchange market pressure in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 21 or (α=1%). it can be said that an increase in gdp growth of 1 percent will cause a decrease in forex market pressure or emp of 12.0178 percent, assuming other variables are ceteris paribus. at the 90% confidence level, or (=10%), the dc coefficient, or domestic credit growth, is 5.7224 and exhibits a strong positive association. if all other factors remain constant, it may be claimed that a 1% increase in domestic credit growth will increase emp by 5.7224 percent. at the 99% confidence level or (α=1%), the gdp growth coefficient, which is 12.0178 percent, shows a significant negative connection. if all other factors remain constant, it may be claimed that an increase in gdp growth of 1% will result in a reduction in the foreign exchange market pressure, or emp, of 12.0178 percent. the current account balance's coefficient is 0.0010 percent. the results of the long-term estimation of the current account balance are not significant for the emp, which means that under the ceteris paribus assumption, a rise in the current account balance of 1 percent will only indirectly result in a fall in the emp of 0.0010 percent. at the 99% confidence level or (α=1%), the results of the long-term estimation of the bi rate or ir have a coefficient value of 8.9014 percent and significantly positively relate to the emp. this suggests that, assuming ceteris paribus, a one percent increase in the bi rate will increase emp by 8.9014 percent. short term estimate table 7 short-term vecm estimation variable coefficient t-statistics information ect -0.103906 [-2.48960]** significant demp(-1) -0.4073 [-2.98967]*** significant demp(-2) -0.094986 [-0.63615] not significant ddc(-1) 1.161172 [ 2.66862]** significant ddc(-2) 1.209388 [ 3.04031]*** significant dpdb(-1) -0.868449 [-1.69314]* significant dpdb(-2) -0.504526 [-0.92928] not significant dca(-1) -4.59e-05 [-0.12110] not significant dca(-2) -0.001041 [-2.45426]** significant dir(-1) -3.351686 [-1.87605]* significant dir(-2) -3.864726 [-2.70437]*** significant c 0.123920 source: results of data processing on eviews 10, (202 2) information [ ] : shows t-count * : based on the level of confidence n 9 0 % (α=1 0 %) ** : based on 95% confidence level (α=5%) *** : based on 9 9 % confidence level (α=1%) if the t-count is higher than the t-table value with a significance level of 10% (1.6752), 5% (2.0075), and 1%, the estimation results on the collected research variables are considered to have a significant influence (2.6757). wahyudi, palupi, & suparta determinants of short and long-term exchange market pressure in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 22 as for short-term vecm estimation results in the equation: △ empt = 0,1239 − 0,4073dempt−1 − 0,0949dempt−2 + 1,1611ddct−1 + 1,2093ddct−2 − 0,8684dpdbt−1 − 0,05035dpdbt−2 − 0,00004dcat−1 − 0,00104dcat−2 − 3,3516dirt−1 − 3,8647dirt−2 (4) based on the short-term vecm estimation outcomes, the estimated error correction parameter (ect) was statistically significant, with a coefficient of -0.103906 and a significance level of 95%. the coefficient's negative sign implies that quarterly error corrections are made to the equation to test the long-run equilibrium. the purportedly important error correction parameter establishes that there is a method for adjusting from the short to the long term. 10%, or 10 quarterly, should be modified in order to achieve long-term equilibrium. the short-term estimation of the domestic credit growth variable (dc) yielded results with coefficients of 1.16117 in lag 1 and 1.209388 in lag 2. in other words, if domestic credit growth increases by 1% in the most recent quarter, the emp will increase by 1.161172% during the most recent quarter, and if domestic credit growth increases by 1% during the most recent two quarters, the emp will increase by 1.20938% in the most past 2 quarters, assuming ceteris paribus. with a coefficient value of 0.868449, the short-term estimation of the gdp growth variable at lag 1 shows a negative and significant relationship with the emp at the 90% confidence level. this relationship suggests that, all else being equal, when gdp growth increases by 1% in the preceding quarter, the emp will decrease by 0.868449% in the preceding period. in contrast, there is no link for lag 2, which means that, under the assumption of ceteris paribus, an increase in gdp growth has no impact on emp for the two prior quarters. the short-term vecm estimation of the current account variable at lag 1 yielded results that are not statistically significant, indicating that when the current account balance increases, the emp for the preceding quarter is unaffected. with a coefficient value of 0.001041 percent, lag 2 has a significant negative relationship at the 95% confidence level, which means that under the ceteris paribus assumption, an increase in the current account balance of one percent will result in an increase in the emp of 0.001041 percent over the preceding two quarters. according to the short-term vecm estimation of the bi rate variable (ir) at lag 1, the coefficient of 3.351686 reveals a significant negative correlation, meaning that when the bi rate increases by 1 percentage point, the emp lowers by 3.351686 percentage points in the preceding period. the ir variable has a coefficient value of 3.864726 at lag 2 and a significant negative association at the 99 percent confidence level, indicating that a 1 percent increase in the bi rate will decrease the emp by 3.864726 percentage points in the preceding two quarters, assuming all other factors remain constant. discussion of the relationships between variables across the long and short term domestic credit growth's impact on exchange market pressure the findings of this study's long-term and short-term vecm estimations demonstrate that domestic credit expansion has a sizable favorable impact. according to girton & roper's (1976) emp theory, if domestic credit growth picks up, the emp value will rise or the wahyudi, palupi, & suparta determinants of short and long-term exchange market pressure in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 23 currency market will experience depreciation pressure. according to lestano (2010) study, "a structural var model of exchange rate market pressure: the case of indonesia,” domestic credit growth and exchange market pressure have a sizable positive association. as well as in the ayuningtyas and purwono (2020) research entitled " analisis exchange market pressure di indonesia periode setelah krisis moneter" shows the relationship between significant and positive domestic credit growth to emp in the long and short term. the research results obtained in this study are in accordance with the research hypothesis so that the hypothesis can be accepted. gdp growth's impact on exchange market pressure growth gdp has a negative and significant impact, notably lag 1, according to this study's long-term and short-term vecm estimation findings. countries are trying to boost economic growth by manufacturing and consuming products and services (ali et al., 2022). this outcome supports the study's prediction that the exchange rate will increase with greater gdp growth, easing the burden on the foreign currency market. this study is also consistent with panday's (2015) study, "impact of monetary policy on exchange market pressure: the case of nepal," demonstrating a strong inverse link between gdp growth and emp. the findings of a different study by aziz and widodo (2017), titled "exchange market pressure: evidences from asean inflation targeting countries," are consistent with the findings of garcía & malet (2007) study, "exchange market pressure, monetary policy, and economic growth: argentina" in that indonesia's gdp growth coefficient is significantly negatively correlated with exchange market pressure. reduced emp will result in a gain in foreign exchange reserves, appreciation of the home currency, and a drop in relative interest rates. gdp growth and emp have a negative association because when gdp growth increases, the exchange or domestic exchange rates rise, lowering emp or the pressure on the forex market. emp or depreciation pressure on the currency market results if both the gdp growth and depreciation rate slow down. current account's impact on exchange market pressure the investigation of the long-term vecm estimation in this study's results revealed that the current account balance has no discernible impact on the emp, indicating that the pressure on the indonesian forex market is not affected by changes in the country’s current account balance. the findings of this study do not support the research hypothesis, but they are consistent with hegerty (2018), which claims that due to specific circumstances in the country during the research period, the current account balance, which is affected by exports and imports, is not actually able to have a significant longterm impact on emp. when the global financial crisis first hit indonesia in 2008, exports there saw a sharp decrease, which was accompanied by a substantial capital outflow in the capital account sector. even in 2020, indonesia's exports' value fell by 2.68 percent from 2019. additionally, imports significantly dropped, even as high as 17.34% less than in 2019 (statistics indonesia, 2020). the covid-19 epidemic, which slowed down the world economy, was the primary cause of the reduction in the value of exports and imports. these factors prevent the current wahyudi, palupi, & suparta determinants of short and long-term exchange market pressure in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 24 account balance from having a long-term, meaningful impact on indonesia's emp. according to the short-term vecm estimation results, the current account balance has a negligible impact on the emp at lag 2 but is not significant at lag 1 relative to the emp. according to research by (ozcelebi, 2019), "assessment of asymmetric effects on exchange market pressure: empirical evidence from emerging countries," there is a short-term, significant negative correlation between the current account balance and the emp. the pressure on the foreign exchange market or emp will decrease as the current account balance rises. the current account balance is also utilized internally to calculate the emp and indicate the necessity for borrowing foreign money. bi rate's impact on the pressure on the exchange market the vecm bi rate estimation results have a considerable favorable impact on emp over time. the research hypothesis does not match the findings of the study. however, the estimation findings in this study are consistent with amiruddin (2014) article, "tekanan nilai tukar dan intervensi bank sentral di tiga negara asean”. rising interest rates may have an impact on excessive demand in the fx market. since depreciation also causes inflation, the monetary authority must raise interest rates to control inflation, according to research by khawaja and din (2007) titled "instrument of managing exchange market pressure: money supply or interest rate," which found a positive relationship between interest rates and exchange market pressure. the short-term vecm estimation's findings about the bi rate have a very detrimental impact on the emp. the findings of the study support the research hypothesis. the estimation findings in this study are consistent with ratnasari and widodo's (2007) paper, "exchange market pressure and monetary policies in asean 5,” which asserts that a rise in interest rates will lessen exchange market pressure during times of crisis. the value of the emp declines in response to an increase in interest rates. this is because the pressure on the foreign exchange market will lessen when interest rates rise since capital inflows will lead the rupiah/usd exchange rate to gain (ratnasari & widodo, 2007). both the short-term and long-term findings of the vecm estimation indicate valid results. the change in the dependent variable, emp, can be explained by the independent variables, which include domestic credit growth, gdp growth, current account balance, and the bi rate of 62.10%, as shown by the coefficient of determination r-squares value, which is worth 0.621084. the impulse response function and variance decomposition tests will be the following ones run as part of this investigation. impulse response function (irf) results the outcomes of the influence of a shock on one variable on another variable are explained by the impulse response function analysis, which in this analysis is not only in a short period but can analyze for numerous horizons to future as long-term information. it is used in this study to examine the exchange market pressure (emp) reaction to shocks in domestic credit growth (dc), gdp growth (gdp), current account balance (ca), and bi rate (ir). wahyudi, palupi, & suparta determinants of short and long-term exchange market pressure in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 25 table 8 results of impulse response function period emp dc pdb ca ir 1 5.052703 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 2 2.745133 0.746012 0.304915 0.032416 -1.79632 3 2.666316 0.207653 0.367707 2.138370 -0.60631 4 2.835382 0.360451 1.635837 1.267833 -0.81906 5 2.551915 0.869658 1.862027 0.511398 -1.12682 6 2.978707 0.621433 1.728209 0.636174 -1.18667 7 2.861030 0.768610 1.344660 0.793525 -1.41044 8 2.781673 0.620712 1.169199 0.909043 -1.28966 9 2.788567 0.640054 1.044093 0.969115 -1.22174 10 2.779176 0.586108 1.061511 0.889952 -1.19001 source: results of data processing on eviews 10, (2022) exchange market pressure response to domestic credit growth shock figure 1 irf emp test results against dc shock source: results of data processing on eviews 10, (2022) table 8 shows the positive response of the emp to dc shocks or domestic credit growth in periods 2 to 10 at one standard deviation. this positive response indicates a decline in the value of the emp below zero from shocks to domestic credit growth. the emp reaction fluctuated from the second to the tenth period, with the second period's response size being 0.7460 percent rising to 0.8696 percent in the fifth period. the sixth to tenth period also displayed oscillations, with the tenth period's response size being 0.5861 percent. the findings of this study show that the emp responded favorably to the shock of credit growth. accordingly, if there is an increase in domestic credit growth as indicated by an excess demand for money, foreign exchange reserves will rise, the exchange rate will appreciate, and emp, or pressures on the forex market, will be reduced. lestano (2010) study, "a structural var model of exchange rate market pressure: the case of indonesia," found that the emp responded favorably to shocks to domestic credit growth in indonesia. these findings are consistent with the results of the emp. according to lestano (2010), increasing capital inflows can positively affect the economy. the existence of capital inflows can lead to an appreciation of the domestic currency and will trigger an explosion in asset prices which in turn will encourage domestic credit wahyudi, palupi, & suparta determinants of short and long-term exchange market pressure in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 26 expansion. the domestic currency will strengthen, or in other words, the emp will decline due to the rise in capital flows combined with the rise in domestic credit growth that is being directed by the monetary authority to increase liquidity. exchange market pressure response to gdp growth shock figure 2 irf emp test results on gdp growth shock source: results of data processing on eviews 10, (2022) the emp responded positively to gdp growth shocks from 2 to 10 at one standard deviation. when the emp responds positively to a gdp growth shock, the emp has fallen below zero in the second to tenth period. the emp's response to gdp growth was 0.3049 percent in the second period, 1.6358 percent in the fourth period, and increased from the fifth to the tenth quarter. the results of the emp responded positively to the gdp growth shock in line with lestano's (2010) research, entitled "a structural var model of exchange rate market pressure: the case of indonesia" thus, when there is a shock to gdp growth, the emp reacts favorably. when the gdp growth rate declines, as it did from 2020:q2 to 2021:q1, there is a positive emp response to the gdp growth shocks. in reaction to the number of foreign exchange pressures that have decreased in value below zero, indicating a reduction in pressure on the forex market, gdp growth illustrates that considerable societal constraints affect the economy. exchange market pressure response to shock current account figure 3 irf emp test results against ca. shock source: results of data processing on eviews 10, (2022) wahyudi, palupi, & suparta determinants of short and long-term exchange market pressure in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 27 in periods 2 to 10, emp responded favorably to shocks to the current account (ca) by one standard deviation. this indicates that a shock to the current account balance or a current account deficit will lessen the pressure on the currency market, or emp has a value below zero. the emp response to the emp shock had results of 0.3049 in the second period, 1.6358 in the fourth period, and until the tenth period, when the fluctuating values tended to increase by 1.0615. these findings are consistent with the study by ozcelebi (2019), "assessment of asymmetric effects on exchange market pressure: empirical evidence from emerging countries," which found that changes in the current account balance have a positive impact on the exchange market pressure (emp), as they can lessen forex market pressures. a country's economic power is measured by its ability to trade goods and services, generate income from its production assets, and receive grants and remittances from its citizens (bank indonesia, 2018). therefore, the higher the ratio of the current account balance to the economy, the local economy will develop better, including international trade, an increase in revenue from investment, and an increase in income from foreign employees. exchange market pressure response to shock bi rate figure 4 irf emp test results against ir shock source: results of data processing on eviews 10, (2022) according to ozcelebi (2019), in "assessment of asymmetric effects on exchange market pressure: empirical evidence from emerging countries," these findings support the theory that the emp reacts favorably to shocks in the current account balance because the current account balance can ir shocks cause the emp to react negatively in periods 2 to 10 at one standard deviation. this indicates that the emp will react negatively by increasing fx market pressure in response to a shock to the bi rate. when the emp reacts negatively, it indicates that the currency market is under more pressure or that the emp's value has increased above zero. the response value was -1.7963 percent in the second period and -1.1268 percent in the fifth period. according to aziz and widodo's (2017) research titled "exchange market pressure: evidences from asean inflation targeting countries," if interest rates rise, the domestic currency will weaken, and/or foreign exchange reserves will be lost, which will increase emp. the bi rate manages market liquidity to help monetary policy accomplish its operational goals. the bi rate's other goals are maintaining economic stability and reducing inflation. in most cases, bi will raise the wahyudi, palupi, & suparta determinants of short and long-term exchange market pressure in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 28 bi rate if inflation is anticipated to be higher than the objective, and vice versa if inflation is anticipated to be lower than the target. results of variance decomposition (vd) to determine the relative impact of research factors on other variables, variance decomposition is used to assemble the forecast error variance of a variable, that is, how much the variance before and after the shock differs from other variables. the decomposition variable on the emp variable during 10 quarters is summarized in the table 9. table 9 results of variance decomposition period emp dc pdb ca ir 1 100.0000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 2 89.50455 1.506470 0.251667 0.002844 8.734466 3 81.70478 1.219534 0.464059 9.301636 7.309988 4 77.39753 1.171181 4.661979 9.922394 6.846918 5 73.39804 1.992837 8.545047 8.640695 7.423379 6 71.76639 2.112468 10.55973 7.726640 7.834771 7 70.49938 2.418728 10.96618 7.343135 8.772570 8 69.87739 2.502671 11.01304 7.296282 9.310617 9 69.55475 2.595622 10.85429 7.363969 9.631372 10 69.40355 2.630361 10.77334 7.329168 9.863582 source: results of data processing on eviews 10, (2022) variance decomposition seeks to quantify the relative importance of the dc, pdb, ca, and ir factors in influencing the emp variable. from table 9, it can be inferred that the emp variability period began as a result of the emp shock itself, which was 100%, and was caused by the variance decomposition results in the equation model where the contribution of the independent variables to the forex market pressure or the emp from period 1 to period 10 fluctuated. other factors started to have an impact on the fluctuation of currency market pressures or emp in the second period. emp plays a significant role in the second session with an 89.50% dominance. then, with a period 8 contribution of 11.01 percent, gdp growth is the independent variable contributing the most to emp, illustrating the significance of gdp growth in the foreign currency market dynamics. in addition, the current account balance variable's contribution of 9.92 percent to the fourth period was the second greatest. the third contribution of the bi rate variable in the tenth period was 9.86 percent, while the contribution of the domestic credit growth variable (dc) was the least at 2.63 percent. conclusion this study aims to analyze exchange market pressure (emp) in indonesia using the vector error correction model (vecm) method. the data used are emp, credit growth, gross domestic product growth, current account balance ratio, and the bi rate. based on the results of the long-term vecm estimation, domestic credit growth has a significant wahyudi, palupi, & suparta determinants of short and long-term exchange market pressure in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 29 positive relationship to exchange market pressure (emp), gdp growth has a significant negative relationship to emp, the current account balance is not significant to exchange market pressure (emp), and bi rate has a significant positive relationship to emp. according to the short-term vecm estimation findings, domestic credit growth has a significant positive relationship to emp, gdp growth has a significant negative relationship to emp, the current account balance has a significant negative relationship to emp, and the bi rate has a significant negative relationship to emp. according to the impulse response function results, exchange market pressure (emp) responded successfully to shocks to domestic credit growth, gdp growth, and the current account balance (irf). in the interim, emp responded badly to bi rate shocks. the positive response indicated a decrease in the value of the exchange market pressure (emp) below zero or a decrease in foreign exchange market pressure, whereas the negative response indicated an increase in the exchange market pressure (emp) above zero or an increase in foreign exchange market pressure. based on the conclusions, the role of the government in controlling emp is very necessary. governments and stakeholders can advance international trade through international economic cooperation by increasing exports and controlling imports. the closer the cooperation with many countries, the more opportunities the country has to conduct international trade. in addition, the government should also improve the quality of human resources and technology so that the quality of export products is improving. the government, through bank indonesia, can also maintain economic growth through infrastructure development to realize price stability and inclusive and quality economic growth. moreover, the government must reduce domestic credit growth by limiting new loans, increasing taxes, and synergy between state-owned enterprises (soes). the limitation of this study is that it has not compared crisis and non-crisis conditions. as occurred in 2008 and 2021, with the 2008 financial crisis and the 2021 covid-19 pandemic, respectively. subsequent research combines independent variables that influence emp and examines the effects of the independent variables on emp under crisis and non-crisis settings. references ali, w., gohar, r., chang, b. h., & wong, w. k. 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(2018). ekonometrika pengantar dan aplikasinya disertasi panduan eviews (5th ed.). upp stim ykpn. https://www.bps.go.id/publication/2021/06/10/2f4516969cc6fa220892f170/statistik-perdagangan-luar-negeri-impor-2020-jilid-i.html https://www.bps.go.id/publication/2021/06/10/2f4516969cc6fa220892f170/statistik-perdagangan-luar-negeri-impor-2020-jilid-i.html https://doi.org/10.21002/jepi.v16i2.592 https://ojs.ijbe-research.com/index.php/ijbe/article/view/46 https://ojs.ijbe-research.com/index.php/ijbe/article/view/46 image (127).jpg image (132).jpg image (133).jpg image (134).jpg image (135).jpg image (136).jpg image (137).jpg image (138).jpg image (139).jpg image (140).jpg image (141).jpg image (142).jpg image (143).jpg image (144).jpg image (145).jpg image (146).jpg image (147).jpg image (2).jpg image (3).jpg image (4).jpg image (5).jpg image (6).jpg image (7).jpg image (8).jpg image (9).jpg image (10).jpg image (11).jpg image (12).jpg image (13).jpg image (14).jpg image (15).jpg image (16).jpg image (17).jpg image (18).jpg image (19).jpg image (20).jpg image (21).jpg image (22).jpg image (23).jpg image (2).jpg image (3).jpg image (4).jpg image (5).jpg image (6).jpg image (7).jpg image (8).jpg image (9).jpg image (10).jpg image (11).jpg image (12).jpg image (13).jpg image (14).jpg jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 23 no 1, april 2022 article type: research paper the effect of monetary instrument of islamic banking financing channel towards the economic growth in indonesia sobar m. johari1,2*, wing keung wong3, ida fitri anjasari1, nguyen tran thai ha2,4, and trinh thi huyen thuong4 abstract: monetary policy is closely related to activities to achieve economic growth, which eventually gives welfare to the community. this study aims to analyze the description of the transmission flow of financing channels, the effect of monetary policy instruments, and their effectiveness to achieve economic growth. the variables used are islamic banking finance (fin), return of sharia bank indonesia certificate (sbis), return of puas, and industrial production index (ipi). this study used vector error correction model (vecm) to determine short and long-term relationships using the time series data. first, the result of the study showed that the transmission flow could not be identified clearly, because the flow stopped in fin, and it could not affect ipi, according to the granger causality test. second, the result of vecm estimation showed that all variables only affected long term period and did not affect the short-term period. third, monetary policy transmission of islamic banking financing channel was not effective enough, which was proven with the result of irf simulation, which showed that the effect of shock on financing channel variable (fin) towards ipi was subsided and stable in the 10th period later. meanwhile, the result of the fevd simulation showed that the financing channel variable (fin) only gave a contribution of as much as 0.14 percent towards ipi. the contribution and policy implications are also discussed in this study. keywords: islamic monetary instruments; islamic banking financing channel; economic growth; vector error correction model (vecm) jel classification: e42; e52; g21; o42 introduction the rate of economic growth illustrates the role of the government in achieving public welfare in a country (ha et al., 2020). bank indonesia (bi), as the central bank in indonesia, always tries to maintain exchange rate stability as the ultimate goal by regulating the money supply, and contributing to economic growth (johari, 2014). since the enactment of the central bank act in indonesia no. 23 of 1999, indonesia became one of the countries that implemented a dual banking system, namely conventional banks and islamic banks (islamic banks), intending to increase financing capacity for the national economic sector. to achieve this goal, it is necessary to have a central bank policy that regulates the economy in the aggregate through monetary policy. affiliation: 1 department of islamic economics, faculty of islamic studies, universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta, special region of yogyakarta, indonesia 2 department of business administration, college of management, asia university, taiwan, province of china 3 department of finance, college of management, asia university, taiwan, province of china 4 faculty of finance and accounting, saigon university, ho chi minh city, vietnam *correspondence: sobarjohari83@gmail.com this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v23i1.13198 citation: johari, s. m., wong, w. k., anjasari, i. p., ha, n. t. t., & thuong, t. t. h. (2022). the effect of monetary instrument of islamic banking financing channel towards the economic growth in indonesia. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 23(1), 124-139. article history received: 23 nov 2021 revised: 15 feb 2022 14 apr 2022 accepted: 25 apr 2022 https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=otsydtgaaaaj&hl=en https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorid=57025339400 https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorid=57204740195 https://ekonomisyariah.umy.ac.id/ https://ekonomisyariah.umy.ac.id/ https://ekonomisyariah.umy.ac.id/ https://ekonomisyariah.umy.ac.id/ https://bo3.asia.edu.tw/bin/home.php?lang=en https://bo3.asia.edu.tw/bin/home.php?lang=en https://bo3.asia.edu.tw/bin/home.php?lang=en https://bo3.asia.edu.tw/bin/home.php?lang=en https://fn.asia.edu.tw/?locale=en https://fn.asia.edu.tw/?locale=en https://fn.asia.edu.tw/?locale=en http://taichinhketoan.sgu.edu.vn/web/ http://taichinhketoan.sgu.edu.vn/web/ http://taichinhketoan.sgu.edu.vn/web/ mailto:sobarjohari83@gmail.com http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/13198 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v23i1.13198&domain=pdf johari, wong, anjasari, ha, & thuong the effect of monetary instrument of islamic banking financing channel … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 125 according to the law in indonesia no. 3 of 2004 article 7 on monetary policy, the monetary sector must be linked to the real sector. the purpose of monetary control in islam is to achieve full employment conditions, a condition where the property is disinfected between the financial sector and the real sector to achieve public welfare (biancone & radwan, 2018). however, the conventional economic view of monetary operation stipulates that monetary contraction/expansion may not directly link with the real projects or business activities (rabin, 2004). moreover, monetary policy in indonesia also aims to achieve and maintain rupiah exchange rate stability. "the stability of the rupiah's value is closely related to the amount of money circulating in the community" (hapsari, 2013). to that end, the government created several sharia monetary instruments through the central bank, one of which was the bank indonesia wadiah certificate (swbi) in 2000. later, it was replaced with a sharia bank indonesia certificate (sbis) since 2008. thus, bank indonesia (bi) has dual authority; therefore, the transmission of monetary policy does not only have an impact on conventional banking but also on islamic banking. banking is expected to be the main instrument in achieving economic goals. the role of islamic banking in moving the real sector can be seen from the financing side. the steps taken by bi to achieve this goal are: by transforming it through six channels such as interest rates, credit, asset prices, the balance of payments, exchange rates, and inflation expectations. therefore, the closest transmission line and strong linkage with the real sector are through credit or bank financing (bernanke & gertler, 1995). the monetary policy adopted by bi is to influence and direct various economic and financial activities to the goal to be achieved, namely price stability, while taking into account economic growth. the result of research by setiawan and karsinah (2018) explained that increasing islamic banking financing is expected to encourage growth in the real sector. this is reinforced by the result of ascarya's research (2012), which states that the contract of respect and sharing of losses (mudharabah and musyarakah) in islamic banking positively affects the output of the real sector. because the purpose of islamic economic activity is to support productive activities, assist the community in accumulating capital, and distribute wealth to achieve prosperity for all. however, despite the rapid growth of the islamic banking industry, central banks continue to face challenges in implementing monetary policy and transmitting it in the presence of islamic banks (cbs). indeed, the problem of the monetary policy transmission mechanism is increasing, from time lag to alternative solutions using the dual monetary system, such as the sharia banking financing line as a complement to the banking credit line(caporale et al. 2020). the challenges stem from islamic finance's core principles and the macroeconomic as well as monetary policy frameworks of the countries where islamic banks operate (ahmed, 2018). typically, financial systems with systemic islamic banking are dual and underdeveloped. the islamic banks are impacted by "standard" monetary policy instruments and conditions and flourish alongside conventional banks. the efficiency of monetary policy in islamic banking is difficult to assess since it necessitates looking at it from a variety of johari, wong, anjasari, ha, & thuong the effect of monetary instrument of islamic banking financing channel … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 126 angles, some of which are at odds. therefore, the transmission of dual monetary policy through the islamic banking financing channel is essential to study continuously. thus, this study analyzes the flow of the transmission mechanism of islamic monetary policy through the influence and effectiveness of the monetary instrument of the islamic banking financing channel on economic growth in indonesia. economic growth is to increase the real national income in long term as well as short-term (phung et al., 2019). the main source of the output of a country is not sourced from its economic growth alone but rather the increase in output sourced from economic activities (boediono, 1982). the industrial production index (ipi) has long been a key macroeconomic indicator for monitoring indonesia's industrial sectors (saadillah, 2019). thus, ipi is one of the most important indicators for assessing the real economy (wulandari & saleh, 2015; nguyen & darsono 2022). because real gdp or gnp statistics are not available on monthly basis, the index is frequently employed as a proxy for economic activity or national revenue (kasri & kassim, 2009; hamori & kume 2018). according to law no. 23 year 1999 concerning bank indonesia, it is stated that "monetary policy is policies established and implemented by bank indonesia to achieve and maintain stability in the value of the rupiah, which is carried out among others through controlling the money supply and (or) interest rates." thus, the monetary policy transmission mechanism is the path that a monetary policy passes through to influence the final goal of national aggregate output and prices. in each channel in transmission, each economic activity is different and has an interaction with each other. for example, an increase in the policy rate affects market interest rates and therefore affects credit and investment activity since investment is the activity that adds value to the economy. besides, interest rates are also used to regulate inflation; when inflation is high, interest rates impact inflation as expected or not through the efficiency of the transmission mechanism (wiranata kusuma & kassim, 2013). according to loayza and schmidt-hebbel (2002), the figure 1 shows the monetary policy rule and transmission mechanisms that impact national output. figure 1 monetary policy rule and transmission mechanisms johari, wong, anjasari, ha, & thuong the effect of monetary instrument of islamic banking financing channel … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 127 the monetary policy transmission mechanism operates through various channels, affecting numerous variables and markets at varying speeds and intensities. the most effective collection of policy instruments, the timing of policy changes, and thus the primary constraints that central banks confront in making choices are all determined by identifying these transmission channels (boukhatem & ben moussa, 2018). while in the islamic monetary management policy, the stability of demand for money directs it to a crucial objective: productive activities (hamza & saadaoui, 2018). therefore, any instrument that leads to instability and allocates unproductive sources of funds will be abandoned. the goal is to ensure the appropriate monetary expansion but is sufficiently capable of producing adequate growth and can result in equitable welfare for the community. the target growth rate must be continuity, realistic, and long-term. therefore, the process of transmitting monetary policy is not separated from the interaction between the monetary authorities, the central bank with the national banking, and other financial institutions and economic actors in the real sector. this interaction is conducted through two stages. the first stage is the interaction between the central bank and the banking as well as other financial institutions in various financial transactions. second, interaction relates to the function of intermediation, namely the interaction between banking and other financial institutions with the economic actors in the activities in the real economic sector (wiranata kusuma & kassim, 2013). in figure 1, the credit channel is a virtual channel in countries where banks play a core role in the financial system. when there is no full redundancy in economic entities' bank deposits or other sources of funds, the bank credit channel of monetary transmission will operate as follows: (a) expansive monetary policy results in an increase in bank reserves and deposits, which affect the growth of bank loans and debt, as well as increased investment and gross domestic product. (b) restrictive monetary policy decreases bank loans and debt, with the opposite effects on investment and gross domestic product. similarly, financing in indonesia is one of the main tasks of the banking system, which ensures the provision of funds to meet the needs of the parties, which include: (a) sharia interbank money market (puas) is an interbank short-term (less than one year) financial transaction activity based on sharia principles, both in rupiah and foreign currency. sharia bank financing has a significant role in the economic pace. in general, financing can increase the usability of money, the use of goods, the circulation of money, generate excitement in trying, economic stability, and is a bridge to increase national income (biancone & radwan, 2018; ngoc et al., 2021). (b) to support establishing and implementing monetary policy, bank indonesia, as the central bank, conducts monetary control through open market operations based on sharia principles (opts). bi has the authority to establish the opt-in instruments used. therefore, bi needs to issue a bank indonesia sharia certificate (sbis) as one of the open market operating instruments conducted based on sharia principles. sbis is a bank certificate in rupiah currency issued by bank indonesia short term based on sharia principles. based on the literature, the effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission mechanism can be measured by two indicators: (a) the speed in the grace period (time lag); the speed indicator is measured by the amount of time lag required by the variables in a path to respond to the shock of johari, wong, anjasari, ha, & thuong the effect of monetary instrument of islamic banking financing channel … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 128 policy instruments until the intermediate and final targets are achieved. (b) the strength of the variables in the monetary transmission line in response to the bi rate shock until the final target is realized (ascarya, 2012). from the theoretical standpoint, islamic banking differs from regular banking since interest is prohibited in islam (the bank and interest cannot fix the rate of return on deposits that cannot be charged on loans). the profitand loss-sharing (pls) paradigm, which is mostly based on the mudarabah (profit-sharing) and musharakah (equity participation) notions of islamic contracts, is a distinctive aspect of islamic banking. therefore, reviewing empirical studies will focus on the islamic banking sector. previously, using var-vecm analysis, haron and wan azmi (2005) discovered evidence that islamic bank depositors are influenced by both financial and economic factors (money supply, composite index, inflation rate, and gross domestic product ratio), which contradicts islamic saving theories. then, kassim and majid (2009) also looked at how monetary policy changes affect islamic banks versus conventional banks. using two key tests, the paper investigates the dynamic interrelationships between islamic and conventional bank deposits and loans in the context of monetary policy. the autoregressive distributed lag (ardl) model is used to investigate the long-run relationship between the variables, while the vector error-correction model (vecm) is used to investigate the shortand long-run dynamics. in comparison to conventional banks, the balance sheet items of islamic banks were found to be more susceptible to monetary policy changes. as a result, the influence of monetary policy on islamic banks is more destabilizing than on conventional banks. rama (2013) then conducted a study in indonesia to investigate and understand the dynamic relationship between the development of islamic banking, capital markets, trade, inflation, and economic growth. according to the study, there is a bi-directional connection between islamic banking development and economic growth. this discovery is consistent with the "feedback hypothesis" or "bidirectional causality perspective" theory. these empirical findings show that the expansion of islamic banking in indonesia can spur rapid economic growth by providing sharia-compliant products and services. of course, this is consistent with the nature of islamic banking, which is pro-business and prioritizes the real economy. these adjustments will drive improved economic performance if islamic banking financial institutions respond efficiently to increased demand as a result of strong economic growth. the financial sector and the economy will eventually require each other's development, and their interaction will stimulate bidirectional causality. islamic banking has effectively played its role as an intermediary institution, facilitating the mobilization of money from surplus units to deficit units and economic sectors with excess capital to economic sectors in need of finance, as demonstrated by the previous study's findings. setiawan (2020) led a conversation on the role of banking in indonesian economic growth: islamic banks vs. conventional banks. this study evaluates the contribution of islamic banks to economic growth via the role of financing and the contribution of conventional banks to economic growth through the role of credit. the findings of this study show that johari, wong, anjasari, ha, & thuong the effect of monetary instrument of islamic banking financing channel … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 129 both conventional and islamic bank lending has a substantial impact on the country's economic growth. credit and financing expansion has a favorable impact on economic growth. a one percent increase in traditional bank loans leads to a 0.322 percent boost in economic growth. then, for every 1% rise in islamic bank financing, there is a 0.126 percent boost in economic growth. the coefficient value indicates that the change is not excessively huge, is inelastic, but has a considerable influence. any increase in the value of credit and financing in the domestic banking industry could lead to economic growth. thus, based on theories and empirical studies, we develop our hypothesis as follows: h1: monetary transmission of the sharia banking financing line has a clear flow h2: monetary instrument of the sharia banking financing line has a long-term influence on economic growth in indonesia h3: islamic banking financing line's monetary instrument promotes economic growth in indonesia research method the data used in this study is secondary data, in the form of time series data with a monthly scale, namely the period of january 2012 to december 2019 or as many as 96 samples. the data was obtained from the financial services authority (ojk), bank indonesia economic and banking statistics (seki-bi), bank indonesia sharia banking statistics (sps-bi) and the central bureau of statistics (bps). the variables used in this study are as follows; ipi is a monthly production index of large and medium industries as a proxy for economic growth in indonesia for the monthly period from january 2012 to december 2019 obtained from the central statistics agency (bps). fin is the total financing provided to third parties by the islamic banking industry for the monthly period from january 2013 to december 2020 obtained from bank indonesia's economic and banking statistics (seki bi). puas is the monthly rate of return on the islamic interbank money market (puas) from january 2012 to december 2019 obtained from bank indonesia's economic and banking statistics (seki bi). sbis is a short term sbis return in rupiah currency issued by bank indonesia. the data used is sbis return rate data for the monthly period from january 2012 to december 2019 obtained from bi sharia banking statistics (sps-bi) the variables in this study include industrial production index (ipi) data islamic banking financing data (fin), puas data and sbis data,. this model allows an error correction form which reflects in two relationships: long-term relationship and the short-run dynamics between the variables. this econometric approach tries to explain the impacts of islamic monetary instruments on financing in islamic banking in indonesia on other variables in cointegrated relations. this model is presented by the following: johari, wong, anjasari, ha, & thuong the effect of monetary instrument of islamic banking financing channel … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 130 𝐼𝑃𝐼𝑡 = 𝛽12 + 𝛽13 [  ] 𝐼𝑃𝐼𝑡−𝑖 + ∑ 𝜑11𝑖𝐼𝑃𝐼𝑡−𝑖 + 𝑛 𝑖=1 ∑ 𝜑12𝑗𝑆𝐵𝐼𝑆𝑡−𝑗 + ∑ 𝜑13𝑞𝑃𝑈𝐴𝑆𝑡−𝑘 𝑞 𝑘=1 𝑚 𝑗=1 + ∑ 𝜑13𝑞𝐹𝐼𝑁𝑡−𝑘 𝑞 𝑘=1 + 𝑡 an important parameter in the estimation of the vecm dynamic model is the coefficient of the error correction term (𝐸𝐶𝑀𝑡−1 ), which measures the speed of adjustment of economic growth to its equilibrium level. in vecm, ipi, sbis, puas and fin are assumed as endogenous in order to establish the long and short-run relations (adams, 2009; andrei and andrei, 2015; szkorupová, 2015). 𝛽12 is an unrestricted intercept in this model, ∑ 𝜑11𝑖 𝑛 𝑖=1 is a matrix of coefficients measuring short-run effects, ∑ 𝜑12𝑗 𝑚 𝑗=1 and ∑ 𝜑13𝑞 𝑞 𝑘=1 are the matrix of coefficients measuring short-run effects of exogenous variables,  presents the matrix of long-run coefficients,  is the restricted intercept in the co-integrating vector, 𝛼13 is a matrix of coefficients measuring the speed of adjustment to equilibrium and 𝑡 is the error term. result and discussion before estimating var/vecm, this study went through several stages of pre-estimation tests: stationary test table 1 stationary test result variable level first difference adf-statistics critical values (5%) adf-statistics critical values (5%) lipi -2.288544 -2.892200 -11.24047* -2.892536 lfin -1.487506 -2.892879 -3.310538* -2.892879 puas -1.661708 -2.892536 -13.66648* -2.892536 sbis -3.631214* -2.892536 -7.007628* -2.892879 * stationary on a real level 5 percent the test is to find out whether time series data has a unit root (not stationary) or not. non-stationary data will also produce spurious regression, namely a regression that describes the relationship between two or more variables that looks statistically significant, when in fact it is not. this stationary test was carried out using the augmented dickey fuller (adf) root test using a 5 percent significance level (widarjono, 2013). from table 1, it is found that of the four variables, only the sbis variable is stationary at the level, while the ipi, fin and puas variables are not stationary. so the var model needs to be checked for stationarity at the first difference level. at the first difference level, it is johari, wong, anjasari, ha, & thuong the effect of monetary instrument of islamic banking financing channel … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 131 found that all variables are stationary, meaning that these variables already have a consistent mean and variance. optimum lag test in var, determining the optimal lag is very important because determining the optimal lag is useful for eliminating autocorrelation problems in a var system. if the optimal lag is entered too short, it is feared that it cannot explain the overall dynamics of the model. however, a lag that is too long will also result in an inefficient estimation due to the reduced degree of freedom (basuki & yuliadi, 2015). determination of optimal lag is also useful to show how long the reaction of a variable to other variables. order or lag was selected based on the akaike information criterion (aic), schwarz information criterion (sc) and hannan quinnon (hq) criteria. the selected lag is the model with the smallest value of aic and sc, and the largest value of hq (gujarati, 2010). table 2 optimum lag test results lag logl lr fpe aic sc hq 0 197.6655 na 0.001038 4.481456 4.592559 4.526259 1 343.7739 1022.719 8.82e-09 -7.194975 6.639462* -6.970960 2 370.1166 47.41696* 7.03e09* 7.424814* -6.424890 7.021586* 3 382.1814 20.64415 7.71e-09 -7.337364 -5.893030 -6.754924 4 394.5734 20.10263 8.44e-09 -7.257187 -5.368442 -6.495534 5 401.5255 10.65989 1.05e-08 -7.056123 -4.722967 -6.115258 6 419.6223 26.13976 1.03e-08 -7.102718 -4.325151 -5.982640 * smallest value (indicates selected lag) determination of the optimal lag used in this study is based on the smallest lag using the akaike information criterion (aic). based on the results of the optimum lag test contained in table 2 that the optimum equation model is in the second lag (2). var stability test: table 3 var stability test results root modulus 0.981387 0.981387 0.949178 0.949178 0.754538 0.754538 0.419807 0.255069i 0.491221 0.419807 + 0.255069i 0.491221 -0.311356 0.311356 -0.061034 0.074160i 0.096047 -0.061034 + 0.074160i 0.096047 johari, wong, anjasari, ha, & thuong the effect of monetary instrument of islamic banking financing channel … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 132 the stability of var can be seen from the value of the inverse roots characteristic of the ar polynomial. the var system is said to be stable if all the roots in the ar roots table have a modulus less than one (1) and all of them lie within the unit circle based on the results of the var stability test, it can be concluded that the estimated var to be used for irf and fevd analysis is stable at its optimal lag, because the tested unit has a modulus range of less than one, which ranges from 0.096047-0.981387. granger causality test causality test is conducted to determine whether an endogenous variable can be treated as an exogenous variable. this stems from ignorance of the influence between variables. if there are two variables y and z, then whether y causes z or z causes y or applies both or not both (basuki & yuliadi, 2015). the causality test in this study was carried out using granger causality and error correction of the causality model. in this study, the granger causality method was used to test the causal relationship between two variables. impulse respond function (irf). estimation of the impulse response function (irf) was carried out to see the shock response of the innovation variable to other variables. in addition, this method aims to see how long the shock of one variable affects other variables (rusydiana, 2009). table 4 granger causality test results hipotesis probability conclusion ipi does not granger cause fin 0.0015 ipi → fin sbis does not granger cause fin 0.0002 sbis →fin puas does not granger cause fin 1.e-05 puas →fin puas does not granger cause sbis 7.e-05* puas → sbis sbis does not granger cause puas 0.0391* sbis → puas * have causal relationship between variables based on the results of the granger causality test in this research model, it can be seen that a one-way relationship occurs in the variables sbis with fin, puas with fin and ipi with fin. while a two-way relationship (cause and effect) occurs between the sbis variable and puas. johansen cointegration test if the data that has been observed in the unit root test is not stationary, then the next step is to perform a cointegration test. cointegration is a long-term relationship between non-stationary variables that will become stationary if the variables are combined linearly. if there is cointegration in the variables, it can be ascertained that there is a longterm relationship between the variables. cointegration test was carried out using the johansen's cointegration test method. johari, wong, anjasari, ha, & thuong the effect of monetary instrument of islamic banking financing channel … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 133 table 5 johansen cointegration test results unrestricted cointegration rank test (trace) hypothesized no. of ce (s) eigenvalue trace statistic 0.05 critical value prob.** none * 0.571669 118.2101 47.85613 0.0000 at most 1 * 0.207146 39.35925 29.79707 0.0030 at most 2* 0.152321 17.77243 15.49471 0.0223 at most 3 0.025517 2.403929 3.841466 0.1210 * cointegrated cointegration test results based on the trace statistics in table 5 show that the model has 3 (three) cointegrated ranks at a five percent significance level. thus, the results of the integration test indicate that the ipi, fin, sbis and puas movements have a relationship of stability or balance and similarity of movements in the long term. estimation of vecm tes table 6 vecm short term estimation results short term variable coefficient t-statistics cointeq1 0.000428 0.53769 d(lipi(-1)) -0.158889 -1.45739 d(lipi(-2)) -0.170790 -1.56294 d(sbis(-1)) 0.007840 1.01590 d(sbis(-2)) 0.003587 0.47771 d(puas(-1)) -0.006719 -0.66646 d(puas(-2)) -0.017371 -1.94410 d(lfin(-1)) -0.251611 -0.74038 d(lfin(-2)) 0.306392 0.84528 c -0. 001391 -0.16058 * significant real-level five percent the result of the short-term vecm estimation test in table 6 showed that it does not explain the relationship in the short term, because there is no variable that significantly affects economic growth. this happens because the model in this study is a monetary transmission model, so that a variable takes time or lag to react to other variables so that generally the reaction of a variable to other variables occurs in the long run. table 7 long-term vecm consensus estimation long term variable coefficient t-statistics sbis(-1) -0.970091 -10.1676* puas(-1) 1.110815 8.38526* lfin(-1) 0.372269 2.46028* * significantly on real levels five percent based on the table 7, the only variable that has a negative effect on economic growth is sbis, while the puas and fin variables have a positive effect. johari, wong, anjasari, ha, & thuong the effect of monetary instrument of islamic banking financing channel … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 134 impulse response function (irf) simulation -.01 .00 .01 .02 .03 .04 .05 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 lipi puas sbis lfin response of lipi to cholesky one s.d. innovations figure 2 impulse ipi response to other variables in this case the author uses a period of up to 50 or equal to the next 50 months. while the vertical axis shows changes in ipi due to shock of certain variables, where this change is expressed in standard deviation units (sd). overall, ipi's response to the shock of monetary instruments, namely sbis and puas, stabilized more quickly than the shock of the fin variable. where the fastest stability point occurs when there is a shock to the sbis variable in period 7 and the longest response is given when there is a shock to the fin variable, which is period 10. simulasi forecast error variance decomposition (fevd) forecast error variance decomposition is a method used to see how changes in a variable indicated by changes in error variance are affected by other variables. this analysis is used to calculate how big the influence of random shocks from certain variables to endogenous variables. with this method we can see the strengths and advantages of each variable in influencing other variables over a long period of time (basuki & yuliadi, 2015). table 8 fevd test result for ipi variance decomposition of lipi periode s.e. lipi sbis puas fin 1 0.044975 100.0000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 5 0.082701 98.78877 0.679637 0.370092 0.161498 10 0.113321 98.58467 1.049785 0.239560 0.125987 15 0.137200 98.51710 1.165718 0.190523 0.126663 20 0.157497 98.48058 1.223649 0.164843 0.130927 25 0.175460 98.45783 1.258558 0.149080 0.134528 30 0.191747 98.44238 1.281980 0.138430 0.137212 35 0.206755 98.43122 1.298815 0.130755 0.139213 40 0.220745 98.42279 1.311508 0.124964 0.140740 45 0.233900 98.41620 1.321423 0.120438 0.141938 50 0.246354 98.41091 1.329384 0.116804 0.142901 johari, wong, anjasari, ha, & thuong the effect of monetary instrument of islamic banking financing channel … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 135 overall, the variables sbis, puas and fin only have a very small contribution to the variability of economic growth, which is only 1.59 percent. the contribution of islamic monetary instruments in influencing output growth is still small, so changes in sbis returns have not been able to have a real impact on changes in output. discussions transmissive monetary policy transmission of sharia banking financing line figure 3 the transmission mechanism of sharia monetary policy financing line (source: results of granger causality test, processed) from the results of the granger causality test, overall it can be seen that the transmission path of islamic monetary policy cannot be clearly identified. this shows that changes in the rate of return on the monetary controlling variable (sbis) have an effect on puas returns. this is in accordance with the theory that if there is an increase in yields on sbis, in general it will also be followed by an increase in puas yields. then the level of return on puas also affects changes in the volume of financing disbursed by islamic banking (fin), but fin has not been able to influence the final destination, namely output or ipi. this is in accordance with the behavior of banks that look first at the condition of the domestic economy before distributing financing for entrepreneurs or the public, namely adverse selection, as one of the banking efforts to reduce financing risk by being more careful in distributing financing. the results of this study are in line with daniar (2016) and ascarya (2012), which state that the flow of the transmission mechanism of islamic monetary policy is not able to influence economic growth. the results of daniar's research show that the flow stops at financing while the results of ascarya's research show that the transmission line stops at puas. influence of monetary variable sharia banking financing line on indonesian economic growth based on the results of the vecm estimation test, the estimation results do not explain the existence of a relationship in the short term. hence there are no variables that significantly affect economic growth in indonesia. this happens because the model in this study is a monetary transmission model. however, the vecm estimation results show that all variables have a long-term effect on economic growth. sbis puas ipi fin johari, wong, anjasari, ha, & thuong the effect of monetary instrument of islamic banking financing channel … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 136 effectiveness of sharia transmission mechanism through sharia banking financing line from the results of this research it can be concluded that the mechanism of transmission of monetary policy through financing lines is less effective. it can be analyzed based on ipi response rate against fin variable shock and fin contribution to ipi. the time span required by the ipi variable to respond to the presence of fin variable changes to achieve a balanced condition is 10 months. however, fin has a relatively small contribution of only 0.14 percent. thus, the sharia banking financing line has not yet contributed to economic growth. in addition, islamic monetary policy objectives are the benchmark of the effective monetary policy transmission line in achieving the final target, one of which is economic growth, but apparently this goal cannot be achieved due to the transmission flow, which stops until financing only. conclusion in line with the previous research, the monetary policy transmission mechanism does operate through various channels. therefore, the islamic banking financing channel that has not been clearly identified and disconnected in the fin becomes a natural thing, because it is affected by many variables and markets with varying speed and intensity. however, the target of using islamic monetary policy has begun to show success; this can be seen in the results of research where transmission through the financing channel has a positive effect on real sector output. this means that monetary policy has been directed to the right goal, namely productive activities. like the debate at the beginning of this research, the implementation of monetary policy will always face many challenges. the challenges include the results of positive policies that cannot always be seen in the near future. therefore, the long-term impact of this policy projection is the right thing. this study aims to analyze the description of the transmission flow of financing channels, the effect of monetary policy instruments, and their effectiveness to achieve economic growth.using time series data from 96 banks, this study used the vector error correction model (vecm) to detect shortand long-term correlations. first, based on the granger causality test, the transmission path of monetary policy in the islamic banking financing channel has not been clearly identified and is interrupted in the fin. however, monetary transmission through the financing channel has a positive effect on real sector output. second, from the vecm estimation results, it shows that the sbis, puas and fin variables only affect the long term and have no effect on the short term. this is because the variables used are monetary variables that require a grace period or time lag to be able to influence the final target. third, based on the irf and fevd simulations, the transmission mechanism in the islamic banking financing channel has proven to be less effective. shocks in the financing channel variable (fin) to ipi, subsided and stabilized in a period of less than one year, namely period 10. meanwhile, in terms of the amount of its contribution, the financing variable (fin) only had a very small contribution in encouraging economic growth, which was 0.14 percent. the results of research showing that the transmission mechanism in the islamic banking financing channel has proven to be ineffective, can be used as an evaluation material for banking policy makers in indonesia, johari, wong, anjasari, ha, & thuong the effect of monetary instrument of islamic banking financing channel … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 137 because it turns out that 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(2015). interaksi dinamis variabel makroekonomi terhadap return saham di bursa efek indonesia. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 16(1), 99-118. retrieved from https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/1290 https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/1243 https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/1290 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 24 nomor 1, april 2023 article type: research paper the impact of the provincial minimum wage on environmental quality in indonesia siti aminatul ahadiyah and andryan setyadharma abstract: this research aims to determine the relationship between provincial minimum wages, poverty, unemployment, and income inequality to the environmental quality index (eqi). this research also aims to demonstrate if the environmental kuznet curve (ekc) hypothesis is applicable in indonesia. this research utilized secondary data collected from 33 provinces in indonesia between 2012 and 2021. this research used panel regression with fixed effect model (fem) as the research method. the research results indicated that the provincial minimum wages and poverty positively and significantly affected the eqi. the results also demonstrated that the ekc hypothesis holds true in indonesia, as illustrated by the significance of the grdp per capita and grdp per capita squared. meanwhile, this research showed that unemployment and income inequality did not significantly impact the environmental quality index. this study offered a new analysis on the impact of provincial minimum wage on eqi in indonesia. therefore, this study has contributed to the additional information to the body of knowledge. the government needs to strive for an increase in the development and use of environmentally friendly products, as well as optimization of environmental protection programs. in addition, government needs to increase the provincial minimum wage according to limits set to improve environmental quality. the limited variables and research methods used are expected that further research can complement this study. keywords: environmental quality index; environmental kuznet curve hypothesis; economic development; economic growth jel classification: o44; q56 introduction indonesia is one of the fastest-growing economies in southeast asia in the first quarter of 2019 (azwardi et al, 2022). this suggests that indonesia's economy is doing well, which will lead to faster economic development. the good results of economic progress, however, really have a bad effect on the state of the environment. according to sumarni (2019), as a result of the unrestrained use of natural resources, indonesia's rapid economic expansion may cause a decline in environmental quality. in line with this, according to pertiwi et al (2021), as a result of economic activity, environmental quality suffers as a result of economic expansion. therefore, chen et al (2021), according to his research, improving the quality of life through economic expansion while also protecting the environment is a major challenge. according rifa'i and dewi (2018) even while economic affiliation: department of development economics, faculty of economics and business, universitas negeri semarang, central java, indonesia *correspondence: aminatulahadiyah44@students. unnes.ac.id this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v24i1.17616 citation: ahadiyah, s. a., & setyadharma, a. (2023). the impact of the provincial minimum wage on environmental quality in indonesia. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 24(1), 212-224. article history received: 18 jan 2023 revised: 24 may 2023 06 jun 2023 accepted: 13 jun 2023 https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=i8ixh9waaaaj&hl=en https://ep.unnes.ac.id/web/ https://ep.unnes.ac.id/web/ https://ep.unnes.ac.id/web/ https://ep.unnes.ac.id/web/ mailto:aminatulahadiyah44@students.unnes.ac.id mailto:aminatulahadiyah44@students.unnes.ac.id http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp http://dx.doi.org/10.18196/jesp.v24i1.17616 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v24i1.17616&domain=pdf ahadiyah & setyadharma the impact of the provincial minimum wage on environmental quality in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 213 expansion and the associated impact on the environment expand simultaneously, there is a trade-off between the two. in addition to human activities, a nation's development activities can contribute to a decline in environmental quality (noormalitasari & setyadharma 2021). according to zhu et al (2022), development is the enhancement of a community's quality of life and wellbeing via the provision of access to resources to which it is entitled. one of the indications of economic development is economic growth accompanied by improvements in economic and social structure. not just strong economic growth, but also income disparity, equitable investment, enough employment opportunities, and low poverty rates are necessary for a nation's economic development to be successful (nuraini & hariyani, 2019). development is seen successful if it emphasizes indicators of sustainable development, notably by paying close attention to social and environmental factors (kartiasih & pribadi, 2020). according to pertiwi et al (2021), if development just seeks to improve social welfare and is improperly carried out, it will have a detrimental effect on the biological systems of all organisms. some developing countries frequently encounter a variety of significant environmental concerns, such as climate change and risks to natural and biological resources (masron & subramaniam, 2018). this issue also exists in the growing nation of indonesia. according to klhk (2020), indonesia had a decline in the amount of wooded land from 95.7 ha in 2014 to 94.1 ha in 2019 throughout that time period. this is because different sections of indonesia's forests have been damaged as a result of changing land use. jambeck et al (2015), according to his findings, indonesia really contributes the second-highest amount of plastic debris to the ocean behind china. the marine biodiversity of indonesia may be threatened and harmed by the pollution of the sea by plastic garbage. in addition, environmental quality in various provinces of indonesia is unequal. several provinces in western indonesia have a high alert level and poor environmental quality, whereas regions in eastern indonesia have excellent environmental quality (sumargo & haida, 2020). even jakarta, indonesia's capital and economic center, was requested to be the city with the worst environmental pollution (azwardi et al, 2022). table 1 the water quality index, air quality index, land cover quality index, and environmental quality index indonesia 2012-2021 year water quality index air quality index land cover quality index eqi 2012 54,58 79,61 59,26 63,96 2013 51,82 80,17 59,01 63,20 2014 52,19 80,54 59,01 63,42 2015 65,86 83,84 58,30 68,23 2016 60,38 81,61 57,83 65,73 2017 58,68 87,03 56,88 66,46 2018 72,77 84,74 61,03 71,67 2019 52,62 86,56 62,00 66,55 2020 53,53 87,21 59,54 70,27 2021 52,82 87,36 60,72 71,45 source: ministry of environment and forestry of the republic of indonesia (2021) ahadiyah & setyadharma the impact of the provincial minimum wage on environmental quality in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 214 the environmental quality index (eqi) released by the ministry of environment and forestry of the republic of indonesia is used to quantify environmental quality in indonesia. the eqi is an indicator that describes the status of the national environmental management outcomes from all provinces in indonesia. it comprises the water quality index, air quality index, and land cover quality index (ministry of environment and forestry, 2019). although in 2021 the environmental quality index (eqi) in indonesia increased compared to 2012, the achievement over the past ten years from 2012 to 2021 did not always experience an increase each year, but only showed a tendency to increase. this condition means that eqi achievements still did not meet the expected targets, and there were still obstacles to improving the eqi in indonesia. this also applied to the indicators that make up the eqi itself, where the water quality index, air quality index, and land cover quality index also experienced fluctuating development from 2012 through 2021. the water quality index over the past ten years has actually shown a decreasing trend. this decline is due to household activities, large industries, small-scale businesses, and agricultural and livestock activities, resulting in high water pollution levels. meanwhile, the air quality index experienced a significant increase in 2020, amounting to 3,37 points, but there were still decreases in some years such as 2016 and 2018. this decline indicates that there are still problems in controlling air pollution in indonesia. in addition, the land cover quality index also experienced fluctuating development during the period of 20122021. this is due to various problems found in the field related to the damage of forest and land areas that affect the quality of land cover in indonesia. the environmental kuznets curve (ekc) is a hypothesis that explains the relationship between environmental quality proxies and per capita income proxies and has an inverted u shape (setyadharma et al, 2020). this is due to the fact that during the early stages of development environmental concerns were ignored and environmentally friendly energy sources were not readily available. as a result of economic growth, an understanding of environmental quality maintenance became crucial during the subsequent stages of development advancing science and engineering (nuansa & widodo, 2018). therefore, an inverted u-curve exists between economic expansion and environmental deterioration according to the ekc hypothesis. research darwanto et al (2019) argued that the ekc hypothesis demonstrated a process of structural transformation concurrent with economic growth. the relationship between poverty and other areas of life includes the environment. according to tasri et al (2022), poverty, as one of the economic variables, impacts the quality of the environment. research conducted by baloch et al (2020), in sub-saharan african nations, rising poverty has an effect on rising co2 emissions. efforts to reduce poverty are therefore declared a development priority in both developing and rich nations, even as the first sustainable development goal. according to mansi et al (2020), due to the vast quantity of natural resources required to satisfy human needs, the exodus of poor people can be detrimental to the environment. this statement contradicts the findings of research by heger et al (2018) who discovered that when the quality of the ahadiyah & setyadharma the impact of the provincial minimum wage on environmental quality in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 215 environment improves, the buildup of trash accelerates and becomes more significant. based on data from the central statistics agency from 2012 to 2021, the number of poor people in indonesia has shown a decreasing trend, where in 2012 the percentage of poor people in indonesia reached 11,66 percent, and in 2021 it was 9,71 percent. the decrease in poverty rates in indonesia is due to the success of poverty reduction programs implemented by the government. in tandem with a rise in economic growth, employment possibilities are rising and the rate of violence is falling, which has a detrimental effect on the environment (zulfikar et al, 2021). unemployment is a development issue that is also tied to environmental quality. unemployment happens when the number of available jobs does not match the size of the work force. one-third of jobs in g20 nations are impacted by environmental sustainability and good management, therefore the world of work is intrinsically tied to the natural environment (ilo, 2018). the open unemployment rate reveals the level of unemployment in indonesia, as it represents the proportion of jobless to the work force (bps statistics indonesia, 2020). during the period from 2012 to 2019, unemployment in indonesia showed a tendency to decrease. however, as a result of the pandemic that occurred, in 2020 the unemployment rate in indonesia experienced a significant increase, even exceeding the unemployment rate in 2015. additionally, economic activity influences the degradation of environmental quality (setyadharma et al, 2021; a’yun & khasanah, 2022). consumption is one of the economic activity that impedes the development of environmental quality. according to salo et al (2021), in order to reduce the effects of climate change, household spending habits must be taken into account. ivanova et al (2016) more than 60% of greenhouse gas emissions are a result of home use, hence special consideration must be given to the environmental effects created. wage income is one of the necessary prerequisites for consumption. the magnitude of a person's earnings affects his or her consuming behavior. wage receipts in indonesia are partly determined by the provincial minimum wage set by the government. therefore, a research must be conducted to assess how the provincial minimum wage affects environmental quality. the sustainable development goals also evaluate the environmental consequences of economic disparity (hasan et al, 2021). although income inequality in indonesia during the period fromed to decrease, the inequality that occurs in various regions of indonesia still remains a prthat must be addressed. like poverty, if inequality is not reduced immediately, it can have an increasingly significant impact on the environment. because income inequality is believed to have an impact on the quality of the environment, income inequality and sustainable development are interrelated. both are reflected in the sustainable development goals where income inequality and increasing environmental degradation pose serious threats to human well-being (baloch et al, 2020). the condition of the indonesian economy shows an increasingly positive trend. problems such as poverty, unemployment, and income inequality have tended to decrease, which should have a positive impact on environmental quality. however, on the other hand, there are still various environmental issues in indonesia that need to be addressed. given ahadiyah & setyadharma the impact of the provincial minimum wage on environmental quality in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 216 these problems, this study aims to determine the impact of provincial minimum wage, poverty, unemployment, and income inequality on environmental quality in indonesia, and to test whether the ekc hypothesis holds true there. it is crucial to conduct this research since environmental concerns are not given sufficient consideration in developing nations (masron & subramaniam, 2018). related study is still rarely performed. therefore, further study is needed to determine how economic activities influence environmental quality. in addition, this study offers a new analysis of the impact of provincial minimum wages on eqi in indonesia. because, to the best of our knowledge, no research has ever been completed to examine the influence of the provincial minimum wage on environmental quality in indonesia. therefore, this study contributes the additional information to the body of knowledge. research method this research provided use of secondary data in the form of panel data, specifically a combination of time series and cross section data from 33 provinces in indonesia (excluding north kalimantan) from 2012 to 2021, obtained from the bps statistics indonesia and the ministry of environment and forestry of the republic of indonesia in 2022. the environmental quality index was the dependent variable, whereas the provincial minimum wage, grdp per capita, percentage of poor people, open unemployment rate, and gini index were the independent variables. the following table provides an explanation for each variable employed. table 2 the variables used in the model variable definition source environmental quality index a generalization of indonesia's environmental circumstances using the water quality index, air quality index, and land cover quality index ministry of environment and forestry (2022) provincial minimum wage the amount of the minimum wage applicable in all indonesian provinces (rupiah) bps statistics indonesia (2022) grdp per capita the ratio of the value of grdp to the total population of an area over a specific time period is known as grdp per capita at constant prices (thousands of rupiah) bps statistics indonesia (2022) percentage of poor people percentage of people living in poverty (percent) bps statistics indonesia (2022) open unemployment rate unemployment rate as a proportion of the total work force (percent) bps statistics indonesia (2022) gini index the gini index is used to measure the degree of inequality in population distribution. bps statistics indonesia (2022) the method of panel data regression was selected as the analytical tool, thus it was required to choose the optimal model. to assess the relationship between economic growth and environmental deterioration, the econometric model derived from the ekc hypothesis employs a quadratic form (setyadharma et al, 2020). the trade-off that arises ahadiyah & setyadharma the impact of the provincial minimum wage on environmental quality in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 217 between environmental quality and economic growth is described by quadratic regression modeling (sari, 2022). this is the econometric model that was used: log(eqi)it = ∝0 + β1log(wage)it + β2log(grdppercapita)it + β3log(grdppercapita)²it + β4(pov)it+ β5(unemp)it+ β6log(gini)it +eit in the econometric model above, eqi is environmental quality index; wage is provincial minimum wage, grdppercapita is gross regional domestic product per capita, grdppercapita² is the quadratic form of gross regional domestic product per capita, pov is percentage of poor people, unemp is open unemployment rate, gini is gini index, log is logarithm function, i and t are provinces and periods (2012-2021), ∝0 is the constant, 𝛽1… 𝛽6 is the coefficient of the independent variables, and eit is the error term. result and discussion the aims of this research, which employed a quantitative strategy in the form of panel data regression, was to demonstrate the validity of the ekc hypothesis in indonesia and to ascertain the impact of various variables on the eqi in indonesia, including provincial minimum wage, poverty, unemployment, and income inequality. the data utilized was secondary data from 33 provinces in indonesia from 2012 to 2021 obtained from the ministry of environment and forestry of the republic of indonesia for 2022 and the central statistics agency. the descriptive statistic for each of the utilized variables is as follows. table 3 descriptive statistics eqi grdp per capita pov unemp wage gini means 67.59327 38483.58 11.31206 5.326818 1958966 0.362536 median 69.22500 29617.78 10.16000 4.930000 1898184 0.360500 maximum 91.50000 174963.0 31.53000 10.95000 4416186 0.459000 minimum 35.66000 10030.98 3.420000 1.400000 745000.0 0.247000 std. dev 9.757518 30047.36 5.917635 1.982110 683601.2 0.039841 skewness 0.668872 2.653689 1.018798 0.696390 0.462090 0.083919 kurtosis 3.568285 10.01011 3.711943 2.954109 2.977315 2.650152 jarque-bera 29.04699 1063011 64.05659 26.70173 11.75109 2.070241 probability 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000002 0.002807 0.355184 sum 22305.78 12699582 3732.980 1757.850 6.46e+08 119.6370 sum sq. dev 31323.81 2.97e+11 11521.06 1292.562 1.54e+14 0.522236 observations 330 330 330 330 330 330 table 3 shows that the observations in this study totaled 330. the average eqi was 67.59 with a maximum value of 91.50 and a minimum value of 35.66. the average value of grdp per capita was 38483.58, while the maximum and minimum values were 174963.0 and 10030.98, respectively. percentage of poor people had an average of 11.31206, a maximum value of 31.53000, and a minimum value of 3.420000. the open unemployment ahadiyah & setyadharma the impact of the provincial minimum wage on environmental quality in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 218 rate value ranged from 1.40 to 10.95, with an average value of 5.326818. with an average value of 1958966, a maximum value of 4416186, and a minimum value of 745000.0, these numbers represented the provincial minimum wage. the minimum and maximum values of gini index were 0.247000 and 0.459000, respectively, while the average is 0.362536. there were three tests that must be passed to get the best model between the common effect model (cem), fixed effect model (fem), and random effect model (rem), i.e., chow test, haussman test, and lagrange multiplier test. the acquisition of the best model between the common effect model (cem) and the fixed effect model (fem) was carried out through a chow test. in the chow test, h0 predicts that if the probability value is > 5%, the cem model will be the best model, while h1 predicts that if the probability value is < 5%, the fem model would be the best model. table 4 reveals that the probability is 0.0000, or < 5% significance, indicating that h1 was accepted and h0 was rejected. as a result of the chow test, we can infer that the fixed effect model (fem) was the best model. table 4 chow test results and haussman test chow test effect test statistics c prob. cross-section f 26.573095 0.0000 haussman test test summary chi-sq. statistics prob. random cross-sections 23.282046 0.0007 the haussman test was then performed to determine the best model between fem and rem. h0 indicated that rem was the best model if the result probability was > 5%, whereas h1 stated that fem was the best model if the probability was < 5%. the findings presented in the table 4 indicated that the probability value was 0.0000, or <5%. therefore, h0 was rejected and h1 was accepted, so the optimal model was the fixed effect model (fem). based on the findings of the chow test and the haussman test, it can be stated that the fixed effect model was the most appropriate model for this research (fem). here is the estimation outcome fixed effect model (fem) with the generalized least square method. the estimation results of the fixed effect model (fem) in table 5, the r-squared value was 0.841969, meaning that 84,19% of the variation in the environmental quality index variable can be explained by the variation in the set of variables including provincial minimum wage, grdp per capita, the percentage of the poor population, the open unemployment rate, and gini index. while the 15.81% was explained by variations in other variables outside the model. the probability value of the f-statistics test was 0.000000, which can be seen from the f-statistics test results in table 5. this number was significant at ∝ =5 percent. thus, together, the variables of provincial minimum wage, grdp per capita, the percentage of the poor people, the open unemployment rate, and gini index significantly affected eqi. meanwhile, the t-statistics in table 5 explains that there were several independent variables that did not have a statistically significant effect on the environmental quality index, namely the open unemployment rate and the gini index, because the calculated t-values of these variables were higher than α = 5%. ahadiyah & setyadharma the impact of the provincial minimum wage on environmental quality in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 219 table 5 estimation results fixed effect model (fem) with the generalized least square method variable coefficient std. error t-statistics prob. c 15.85808*** 3.286694 4.824933 0.0000 log(wage) 0.140216*** 0.021546 6.507628 0.0000 log(grdppercapita) -2.703686*** 0.670790 -4.030603 0.0001 log(grdppercapita)^2 0.131755*** 0.034543 3.814243 0.0002 pov 0.011875** 0.004713 2.519667 0.0123 unemp 0.002337 0.004602 0.507921 0.6119 log(gini) -0.003638 0.052254 -0.069627 0.9445 rsquared 0.841969 f-statistic 40.80016 adjusted r-squared 0.821332 prob(fstatistic) 0.000000 note: *** significant at α = 1%; ** significant at α = 5% this research confirmed that the environmental kuznet curve (ekc) hypothesis applied in indonesia. this was evidenced by the significant results of the per capita grdp and squared per capita grdp variables. if grdp per capita grew by 1%, eqi fell by 2.703686%, and vice versa. up to the turning point, when indonesia's per capita grdp increased by 1%, the environmental quality index also increased by 0.131755%, and vice versa, assuming ceteris paribus. these results strengthened the research by setyadharma et al (2020) and confirmed the ekc hypothesis in indonesia. meanwhile, this research did not support study by iskandar (2019) who found that ekc did not exist in indonesia. nonetheless, this research strengthened the research by sari (2022) who determined that the ekc hypothesis applies to nearly all islands in indonesia. this finding was also consistent with other studies by adila et al (2021), prasetyanto and sari (2021), bashir et al (2021), and prastiyo et al (2020). this verifies the ekc hypothesis's presence in indonesia. the turning point in the environmental kuznets curve (ekc) hypothesis can be achieved due to the transformation of the economic structure in indonesia, from previously relying on the primary sector including agriculture, fisheries, and mining, to now shifting towards the secondary sector such as manufacturing, construction, services, and trade (prasetyanto & sari, 2021). this was evidenced by the 2021 indonesian economic report released by the central statistics agency, in which the agricultural sector became the second largest contributor to indonesia's economic growth at 13,70% in 2020, just below the manufacturing sector which reached 19,88%. even in 2017, the contribution of the processing industry to indonesia's gdp was 20,16%, while the agricultural sector was only 13,16%. the economic transformation that occurred was certainly accompanied by various environmental protection programs in indonesia. these programs include the green leadership program, waste management, environmental preservation, and environmental development (rahayu & handri, 2023). the success and sustainable implementation of these programs will improve the quality of the environment in indonesia. the improvement of environmental quality, accompanied by an increase in income, is the second stage of economic development described in the environmental kuznets curve hypothesis (setyadharma et al 2020). ahadiyah & setyadharma the impact of the provincial minimum wage on environmental quality in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 220 the provincial minimum wage had a substantial beneficial impact on the eqi. the estimation findings indicated a value of 0.140216%, which indicated that when the provincial minimum wage increased by 1%, there was a substantial increase of 0.140216% in the eqi, assuming ceteris paribus. according to our knowledge, no previous research had described the influence of the provincial minimum wage on environmental quality. provincial minimum wages in indonesia tended to increase over the past several years, in which increases were adjusted to economic and employment conditions in each region. this was intended as one of the efforts to improve the welfare of workers. however, the government limited the minimum wage increase to a maximum of 10%. the provincial minimum wage has an impact on an individual's income. higher salaries encourage environmentally responsible purchase (setyadharma et al, 2020). therefore, an increase in provincial minimum wage can be one of the steps towards achieving the sustainable development goals. according to mair et al (2019), paying higher wages throughout the global supply chain can be an initial effort in achieving sustainable development. through his efforts to enhance the condition of the environment, pro-environmental conduct is often possessed by those with a greater wealth (moser & kleinhückelkotten, 2018). poverty had a positive significant effect on the environmental quality index with a coefficient value of 0.111875. when poverty increased by 1%, eqi increased by 0.111875%, and vice versa assuming ceteris paribus. the results of this study are in line with previous research by setyadharma et al (2020). meanwhile, this study is not in line with pertiwi et al (2021) and tasri et al (2022) which concluded that poverty does not have an effect on environmental quality index. however, this study differs from the research of shanty et al (2018) ; noormalitasari & setyadharma (2021) ; sumargo & haida (2020) that concluded that poverty has a negative and significant effect on the environmental quality index. this is a challenge and certainly a dilemma for the government. because if the government wants to reduce the level of poverty in indonesia, then the government must also accept the consequence that environmental quality will decrease. unemployment did not have a significant effect on the environmental quality index because the probability value generated was greater than α = 5 percent, which was 0,6119. the results of this study are the same as the research of adesina & mwamba (2019). however, this study is not in line with the research ng et al (2022) that concluded that low levels of unemployment have a negative impact on environmental quality in oecd member countries. this study also concludes that income inequality did not have a significant effect on the environmental quality index because the probability value was greater than α = 5 percent, which was 0,9445. the results of this study are in line with previous research by prasetyanto & sari (2021) and hundie (2021). however, this study differs from the research of pertiwi et al (2021) and noormalitasari & setyadharma (2021) that concluded that income inequality has a negative effect on the environmental quality index. ahadiyah & setyadharma the impact of the provincial minimum wage on environmental quality in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 221 conclusion the aim of this research was to verify the relationship between provincial minimum wages, poverty, unemployment, and income inequality with the environmental quality index (eqi). this study also aimed to prove whether the environmental kuznet curve (ekc) hypothesis applies in indonesia. this study used secondary data from 33 provinces in indonesia which were sourced from the central statistics agency and the ministry of environment and forestry of the republic of indonesia. the data used were provincial minimum wages, percentage of poor people, open unemployment rate, gini index, grdp per capita, and the environmental quality index from 2012 to 2021. the research method used was panel regression with the fixed effect model as the best model. the estimation results showed that the provincial minimum wage had a significant positive effect on the environmental quality index in indonesia and indicated that the ekc hypothesis held true in indonesia, as shown by the statistically significant results of grdp per capita, followed by the significant results of grdp per capita squared, which are supported by previous studies. this research also concludes poverty had a significant positive effect on the environmental quality index in indonesia. however, unemployment and income inequality had no significant impact on indonesia's environmental quality index. in accordance with these results, environmental quality maintenance in indonesia has been well implemented in line with increased economic growth. therefore, improving the quality of the environment and increasing economic growth in indonesia must continue. the adoption of environmentally friendly products can be done comprehensively in indonesia to achieve production efficiency based on sustainable development principles. additionally, it is necessary to optimize environmental protection programs that have been established to improve the quality of the environment for all indonesian citizens. the government must also be pushed to enact rules that promote the use of ecologically friendly items without negatively impacting the poor. to improve the quality of the environment in indonesia, it is also recommended that the government progressively raise the provincial minimum wage which is no more than 10%, and by considering the economic and employment conditions in their respective regions. there are still limitations in this study, so further studies are expected to comprehensively explain the existence of ekc in indonesia by involving more complex variables and using other methods and the latest years to complement this study. references adila, d., nuryartono, n., & oak, m. 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(0281)635292 e-mail: diahs29@yahoo.com abstrak: penelitian ini bertujuan, pertama, mengidentifikasi posisi ekonomi masing-masing kabupaten anggota barlingmascakeb ditinjau dari pertumbuhan ekonomi dan tingkat pendapatan perkapita, kedua, mengidentifikasi sektor unggulan dan potensial, subsektor unggulan dan potensial dalam kabupaten anggota barlingmascakeb, ketiga, mengidentifikasi perbedaan struktur ekonomi kabupaten anggota barlingmascakeb, dan keempat, mengidentifikasi kabupaten/kota yang memiliki posisi paling menguntungkan ditinjau dari tingkat aksesibilitas. penelitian ini menggunakan data sekunder periode tahun 1995-2002, yang terdiri dari produk domestik regional bruto (pdrb) termasuk migas berdasarkan harga konstan tahun 1993; jumlah total penduduk, data jarak antarkabupaten/kota; data jumlah wisatawan yang menginap di hotel, data jumlah perusahaan otobis dan jumlah kendaraannya, serta data jumlah hotel. penelitian ini menggunakan analisis tipologi klassen, analisis model rasio pertumbuhan (mrp), analisis location quotient (lq), analisis indeks divergensi krugman, dan analisis connectivity quotient (cq). temuan dari penelitian yaitu kabupaten cilacap yang termasuk dalam klasifikasi daerah cepat maju dan cepat tumbuh. kabupaten purbalingga termasuk dalam klasifikasi daerah berkembang cepat. kabupaten banjarnegara, kabupaten banyumas, dan kabupaten kebumen termasuk dalam klasifikasi daerah relatif tertinggal. kata kunci: sektor utama, potensi sektor, sub sektor utama, potensi sub sektor, struktur ekonomi abstract: this study aims, first, identify the economic position of each district in terms of economic growth and barlingmascakeb per capita income level. second, identify the dominant different districts of the economic structure barlingmascakeb. third, identify differences in the economic structure of the district members barlingmascakeb. this study used the period 19952002, secondary data consisting of regional gross domestic product (gdp), including oil and gas on the basis of constant prices of 1993, fourthly, identify the districts that have the most advantageous position in terms of levels of accessibility. this study uses secondary data for the period 1995-2002, which consists of gross regional domestic product (grdp), including oil and gas based on constant prices of 1993, total population, distance inter district/city, number of tourists housed in hotels, the amount of bus company and the number of vehicles, number of hotel. this research uses klassen typology analysis, growth models (mrp) analysis, the location quotient analysis (lq), divergence index krugman analysis, and connectivity analysis quotient data (cq). the results of the study, cilacap is included in the classification of fast forward and fast-growing. purbalingga included in the classification of areas of rapid growth. district banjarnegara, banyumas and kebumen district included in the classification of relatively left behind areas. keywords: basic sector, potential sector, basic sub sector, potential sub sector, economic structure identifikasi pengembangan wilayah kabupaten ... (diah setyorini g. dan ratna setyawati g.) 27 pendahuluan pembangunan daerah merupakan perwujudan dari asas desentralisasi, dimana penentuan kebijakan dan pertanggungjawaban pembiayaan maupun pengelolaan dilakukan sepenuhnya oleh pemerintah daerah. kebijakan pemerintah daerah menekankan pada peran serta masyarakat, pemerataan dan keadilan, serta memperhatikan potensi dan keragaman daerah. dalam pembangunan daerah, pemerintah daerah dan masyarakatnya mengelola sumberdaya-sumberdaya yang ada dan membentuk suatu pola kemitraan antara pemerintah daerah dan swasta untuk menciptakan suatu lapangan kerja baru dan merangsang perkembangan kegiatan ekonomi (pertumbuhan ekonomi) dalam wilayah tersebut (arsyad, 1999: 108). barlingmascakeb merupakan lembaga regional bagi upaya meningkatkan dan mengembangkan komunikasi, koordinasi, dan kerjasama daerah dalam pelaksanaan pembangunan daerah serta memanfaatkan potensi daerah. barlingmascakeb beranggotakan lima kabupaten di provinsi jawa tengah, yaitu kabupaten banjarnegara, kabupaten purbalingga, kabupaten banyumas, kabupaten cilacap, dan kabupaten kebumen. lembaga regional ini secara resmi dibentuk pada tanggal 28 juni 2003 (barlingmascakeb. com, 2003). pembentukan manajemen wilayah (regional management) seperti barlingmascakeb merupakan suatu kebutuhan untuk mewujudkan kerjasama pembangunan. konsep ini tidak hanya difokuskan pada satu sektor saja tetapi disesuaikan dengan potensi yang dimiliki tiap-tiap daerah. fokus manajemen wilayah adalah sinergi pembangunan antardaerah dengan memberdayakan potensi ekonominya (efiawan, 2004: 3). dalam rangka pengembangan wilayah masing-masing kabupaten anggota barlingmascakeb, harus diidentifikasi potensi-potensi yang dimiliki oleh masingmasing kabupaten tersebut. selain itu, harus diperhatikan pula keterkaitan antarkabupaten di wilayah lembaga regional barlingmascakeb. keterkaitan tersebut dilihat dari terdapat tidaknya perbedaan struktur ekonomi kabupaten-kabupaten anggota barlingmascakeb dan juga dilihat dari aksesibilitas antarkabupaten dalam wilayah lembaga regional barlingmascakeb. tujuan dari penelitian sebagai berikut, 1) mengidentifikasi posisi ekonomi masingmasing kabupaten anggota barlingmascakeb ditinjau dari pertumbuhan ekonomi dan tingkat pendapatan perkapita, 2) mengidentifikasi sektor unggulan dan potensial, subsektor unggulan dan potensial dalam kabupaten anggota barlingmascakeb, 3) mengidentifikasi ada tidaknya perbedaan struktur ekonomi kabupaten anggota barlingmascakeb, 4) mengidentifikasi kabupaten/kota yang memiliki posisi paling menguntungkan ditinjau dari tingkat aksesibilitas metode penelitian ini merupakan penelitian data sekunder dengan periode pengamatan tahun 1995-2002. data-data tersebut meliputi data produk domestik regional bruto (pdrb) dengan migas berdasarkan harga konstan tahun 1993 menurut lapangan usaha, data jumlah penduduk, data jarak antarkabupaten/kota, data jumlah pasar dan jenis pasar, data jumlah wisatawan yang menginap di hotel, data jumlah perusahaan otobis dan jumlah kendaraannya, serta data jumlah hotel. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 26 43 28 alat analisis yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini, yaitu analisis tipologi klassen, analisis model rasio pertumbuhan (mrp), analisis location quotient (lq), analisis indeks divergensi regional krugman, dan analisis connectivity quotient (cq). analisis tipologi klassen untuk mengetahui posisi perekonomian masing-masing kabupaten anggota barlingmascakeb, ditinjau dari tingkat pertumbuhan dan pendapatan per kapitanya digunakan analisis tipologi klassen. dengan menentukan rata-rata pertumbuhan ekonomi sebagai sumbu vertikal dan rata-rata pendapatan per kapita sebagai sumbu horizontal, daerah yang diamati dapat dibagi menjadi empat klasifikasi, yaitu: daerah cepat maju dan cepat tumbuh, daerah maju tetapi tertekan, daerah berkembang cepat, dan daerah relatif tertinggal (syafrizal, 1997: 2738). tabel 1. klasifikasi kabupaten-kabupaten menurut tipologi klassen pdrb per kapita (y) laju pertumbuhan (r) yi > y yi < y ri > r kabupaten maju dan tumbuh cepat kabupaten berkembang cepat ri < r kabupaten maju tetapi tertekan kabupaten relatif tertinggal keterangan: yi adalah pendapatan per kapita rata-rata wilayah kabupaten i y adalah pendapatan per kapita rata-rata provinsi ri adalah laju pertumbuhan pdrb rata-rata wilayah kabupaten i r adalah laju pertumbuhan pdrb rata-rata provinsi deskripsi kegiatan ekonomi unggul dan potensial 1. identifikasi sektor ekonomi unggul dan potensial dalam mengidentifikasi sektor ekonomi unggul dan sektor ekonomi potensial kabupaten-kabupaten anggota barlingmascakeb, akan dilakukan overlay antara analisis mrp dengan analisis lq. a. analisis model rasio pertumbuhan analisis mrp dilakukan untuk melihat deskripsi kegiatan ekonomi yang potensial terutama struktur ekonomi wilayah kabupaten-kabupaten anggota barlingmascakeb yang menekankan pada kriteria pertumbuhan baik secara eksternal (provinsi) maupun internal (wilayah studi). pendekatan analisis mrp dibagi menjadi dua, yaitu: (1) rasio pertumbuhan wilayah referensi (rpr), dan (2) rasio pertumbuhan wilayah studi (rps). rpr membandingkan pertumbuhan masing-masing kegiatan dalam wilayah provinsi jawa tengah dengan pdrb provinsi jawa tengah. apabila nilai rpr lebih besar dari 1 maka rpr dikatakan (+) dan apabila rpr lebih kecil dari 1 maka rpr dikatakan (-). sedangkan rps membandingkan pertumbuhan kegiatan dalam wilayah kabupaten/kota dengan pertumbuhan kegiatan yang bersangkutan pada tingkat provinsi. dari analisis mrp akan diperoleh nilai riil dan nilai nominal kemudian kombinasi dari kedua perbandingan tersebut akan diperoleh deskripsi kegiatan ekonomi yang potensial pada tingkat wilayah kabupaten-kabupaten anggota barlingmascakeb, yang terdiri dari 4 klasifikasi, yaitu. identifikasi pengembangan wilayah kabupaten ... (diah setyorini g. dan ratna setyawati g.) 29 1) klasifikasi 1, yaitu nilai (+) dan (+) berarti kegiatan tersebut pada tingkat provinsi mempunyai pertumbuhan menonjol dan demikian pula pada tingkat wilayah kabupaten/kota. 2) klasifikasi 2, yaitu nilai (+) dan (-) berarti kegiatan tersebut pada tingkat provinsi mempunyai pertumbuhan menonjol, namun pada tingkat wilayah kabupaten/kota belum menonjol. 3) klasifikasi 3, yaitu nilai (-) dan (+) berarti kegiatan ekonomi tersebut pada tingkat provinsi pertumbuhannya tidak menonjol, akan tetapi pada tingkat wilayah kabupaten/kota pertumbuhan kegiatan tersebut menonjol. dari sudut pandang wilayah kabupaten/kota, kegiatan ini diharapkan akan potensial peranannya dalam memberikan kontribusi pertumbuhan provinsi atau kabupaten/kota. oleh karena itu, kegiatan ini merupakan kegiatan potensial yang dapat dikembangkan di wilayah provinsi dan kabupaten/kota. 4) klasifikasi 4, yaitu (-) dan (-) berarti kegiatan tersebut baik pada tingkat provinsi maupun pada tingkat kabupaten/kota mempunyai pertumbuhan yang rendah. model rasio pertumbuhan (yusuf, 1999: 219-233) a) rasio pertumbuhan wilayah referensi (rpr) = )( )( trr tirir ee ee   b) rasio pertumbuhan wilayah studi (rps) = )( )( tirir tijij ee ee   keterangan: δeij = perubahan pendapatan kegiatan i di kabupaten pada periode t dan t+n. δeir = perubahan pendapatan kegiatan i di wilayah provinsi. δer = perubahan pdrb di wilayah provinsi. eij = pendapatan kegiatan i di kabupaten. eir = pendapatan kegiatan i di wilayah provinsi. er = pdrb di wilayah provinsi. b. analisis location quotient analisis lq merupakan suatu alat analisis untuk menunjukkan basis ekonomi wilayah terutama dari kriteria kontribusi. formulasi lq menurut bendavid-val (1991: 74) sebagai berikut. formulasi lq: nn rr rvx rvx lq  keterangan: xr = pdrb sektor i/ subsektor i pada wilayah kabupaten rvr = total pdrb kabupaten xn = pdrb sektor i/ subsektor i pada wilayah provinsi rvr = total pdrb provinsi kriteria pengukuran lq, yaitu apabila lq > 1 berarti sektor/subsektor tersebut merupakan sektor/subsektor unggulan di kabupaten dan potensial untuk dikembangkan sebagai penggerak perekonomian daerah. apabila lq < 1 berarti sektor/subsektor tersebut bukan merupakan sektor/subsektor unggulan dan kurang potensial untuk dikembangkan sebagai penggerak perekonomian daerah. apabila lq = 1, berarti peranan jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 26 43 30 relatif dari sektor/subsektor tertentu di kabupaten sama dengan peranan relatif dari sektor/subsektor tertentu di tingkat provinsi. 2. identifikasi subsektor ekonomi unggul dan potensial subsektor-subsektor yang dianalisis dalam penelitian ini adalah subsektor-subsektor dari sektor-sektor ekonomi unggul dan sektorsektor ekonomi potensial berdasarkan hasil overlay antara analisis mrp dan analisis lq. identifikasi subsektor ekonomi unggul dan subsektor ekonomi potensial dari sektorsektor ekonomi unggul dan sektor-sektor ekonomi potensial menggunakan alat-alat analisis yang sama pada penentuan sektor ekonomi unggul dan sektor ekonomi potensial. 3. analisis indeks divergensi regional krugman untuk mengamati dan melakukan analisis antarkabupaten dalam wilayah lembaga regional barlingmascakeb, digunakan indeks divergensi regional krugman untuk menghitung perbedaan struktur ekonomi, dan karenanya spesialisasi regional. krugman (dalam kuncoro, 2002: 189-190) mendefinisikan indeks tersebut sebagai berikut.    n i k ik j ij jk e e e e si 1 keterangan: eij = pdrb dalam sektor i untuk wilayah kabupaten j ej = total pdrb untuk wilayah kabupaten j eik = pdrb dalam sektor i untuk wilayah kabupaten k ek = total pdrb untuk wilayah kabupaten k i = 1, …, n. jika indeks sama dengan 0, maka kedua wilayah kabupaten tersebut mempunyai struktur ekonomi yang sama. indeks akan sebesar dua jika kedua wilayah kabupaten tersebut terspesialisasi secara penuh. 4. analisis connectivity quotient analisis cq digunakan untuk mendeskripsikan akses antarkota dalam suatu wilayah. perhitungan cq dilakukan dengan cara sebagai berikut (bendavid-val, 1991: 160). a. hitung jarak dari suatu kota/kabupaten ke kota/kabupaten lainnya dalam suatu wilayah. b. hitung total jarak untuk semua kota/kabupaten, kemudian bagi dengan jumlah kota/kabupaten untuk mendapatkan jarak rata-rata (regional average). c. bagi total jarak dari setiap kota/kabupaten dengan regional average untuk mendapatkan nilai connectivity quotient. kriteria pengukuran connectivity quotient, yaitu apabila cq < 1, berarti tingkat aksesibilitas suatu kota lebih tinggi. dan sebaliknya, apabila cq > 1, berarti tingkat aksesibilitas suatu kota lebih rendah. hasil dan pembahasan hasil analisis tipologi klassen berdasarkan analisis tipologi klassen, dapat diketahui bahwa hanya kabupaten cilacap yang termasuk dalam klasifikasi daerah cepat maju dan cepat tumbuh. kabupaten purbalingga termasuk dalam klasifikasi daerah berkembang cepat. anggota-anggota barlingmascakeb yang lain, yaitu kabupaten banyumas, kabupaten banjarnegara, dan identifikasi pengembangan wilayah kabupaten ... (diah setyorini g. dan ratna setyawati g.) 31 kabupaten kebumen termasuk dalam klasifikasi daerah relatif tertinggal. hasil analisis tipologi klassen kabupaten-kabupaten anggota lembaga regional barlingmascakeb disajikan pada gambar 1. deskripsi kegiatan ekonomi unggul dan potensial 1. identifikasi sektor ekonomi unggul dan potensial hasil overlay antara analisis mrp dan analisis lq masing-masing kabupaten anggota barlingmascakeb adalah sebagai berikut. a. kabupaten banjarnegara hasil overlay antara analisis mrp dan analisis lq kabupaten banjarnegara disajikan pada tabel 2. pdrb per kapita rata-rata 40000003000000200000010000000 l a ju p e rt u m b u h a n e ko n o m i r a ta -r a ta 6 5 4 3 2 1 daerah pbg keb clp bn bms 5 4 3 2 1 relatif tertinggal maju tetapi tertekan berkembang cepat maju & tumbuh cepat keterangan: data pdrb yang digunakan adalah data pdrb dengan migas gambar 1. tipologi klassen kabupaten-kabupaten anggota barlingmascakeb periode 1995-2002 tabel 2. hasil overlay antara analisis mrp dan analisis lq kabupaten banjarnegara mrp + lq > 1 sektor potensial sektor pertanian serta sektor keuangan, persewaan, dan jasa perusahaan sektor unggul sektor bangunan dan sektor jasa-jasa < 1 sektor tertinggal sektor pertambangan dan penggalian; sektor listrik, gas, dan air bersih; serta sektor perdagangan, hotel, dan restoran sektor potensial sektor industri pengolahan serta sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 26 43 32 berdasarkan hasil overlay antara analisis mrp dan analisis lq dapat diketahui bahwa 1) sektor bangunan dan sektor jasa-jasa merupakan sektor ekonomi yang unggul di kabupaten banjarnegara, baik dalam hal pertumbuhan maupun kontribusi. 2) sektor pertanian; sektor keuangan, persewaan, dan jasa perusahaan; sektor industri pengolahan; serta sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi merupakan sektor ekonomi potensial di kabupaten banjarnegara. 3) sektor pertambangan dan penggalian; sektor listrik, gas, dan air bersih; serta sektor perdagangan, hotel, dan restoran merupakan sektor ekonomi tertinggal di kabupaten banjarnegara. b. kabupaten purbalingga hasil overlay antara analisis mrp dan analisis lq kabupaten purbalingga disajikan pada tabel 3. berdasarkan hasil overlay antara analisis mrp dan analisis lq dapat diketahui bahwa. 1) sektor jasa-jasa merupakan sektor ekonomi yang unggul di kabupaten purbalingga, baik dalam hal pertumbuhan maupun kontribusi. 2) sektor pertanian; sektor bangunan; sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi; sektor pertambangan dan penggalian; sektor industri pengolahan; sektor listrik, gas, dan air bersih; serta sektor perdagangan, hotel, dan restoran merupakan sektor ekonomi potensial di kabupaten purbalingga. 3) sektor keuangan, persewaan, dan jasa perusahaan merupakan sektor ekonomi tertinggal di kabupaten purbalingga. c. kabupaten banyumas hasil overlay antara analisis mrp dan analisis lq kabupaten banyumas disajikan pada tabel 4. berdasarkan hasil overlay antara analisis mrp dan analisis lq dapat diketahui bahwa 1) sektor pertambangan dan penggalian serta sektor listrik, gas, dan air bersih merupakan sektor ekonomi yang unggul di kabupaten banyumas, baik dalam hal pertumbuhan maupun kontribusi. tabel 3. hasil overlay antara analisis mrp dan analisis lq kabupaten purbalingga mrp + lq > 1 sektor potensial sektor pertanian, sektor bangunan, serta sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi sektor unggul sektor jasa-jasa < 1 sektor tertinggal sektor keuangan, persewaan, dan jasa perusahaan sektor potensial sektor pertambangan dan penggalian; sektor industri pengolahan; sektor listrik, gas, dan air bersih; serta sektor perdagangan, hotel, dan restoran identifikasi pengembangan wilayah kabupaten ... (diah setyorini g. dan ratna setyawati g.) 33 2) sektor pertanian; sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi; sektor keuangan, persewaan, dan jasa perusahaan; sektor jasa-jasa; sektor industri pengolahan; serta sektor bangunan merupakan sektor ekonomi potensial di kabupaten banyumas. 3) sektor perdagangan, hotel, dan restoran merupakan sektor ekonomi tertinggal di kabupaten banyumas. d. kabupaten cilacap hasil overlay antara analisis mrp dan analisis lq kabupaten cilacap disajikan pada tabel 5. berdasarkan hasil overlay antara analisis mrp dan analisis lq dapat diketahui bahwa. 1) sektor industri pengolahan serta sektor perdagangan, hotel, dan restoran merupakan sektor ekonomi yang unggul di kabupaten cilacap, baik dalam hal pertumbuhan maupun kontribusi. 2) sektor pertanian; sektor pertambangan dan penggalian; sektor listrik, gas, dan air bersih; sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi; serta sektor jasa-jasa merupakan sektor ekonomi potensial di kabupaten cilacap. tabel 4. hasil overlay antara analisis mrp dan analisis lq kabupaten banyumas mrp + lq > 1 sektor potensial sektor pertanian; sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi; sektor keuangan, persewaan, dan jasa perusahaan; serta sektor jasajasa sektor unggul sektor pertambangan dan penggalian serta sektor listrik, gas, dan air bersih < 1 sektor tertinggal sektor perdagangan, hotel, dan restoran sektor potensial sektor industri pengolahan dan sektor bangunan tabel 5. hasil overlay antara analisis mrp dan analisis lq kabupaten cilacap mrp + lq > 1 sektor potensial sektor unggul sektor industri pengolahan serta sektor perdagangan, hotel, dan restoran < 1 sektor tertinggal sektor bangunan serta sektor keuangan, persewaan, dan jasa perusahaan sektor potensial sektor pertanian; sektor pertambangan dan penggalian; sektor listrik, gas, dan air bersih; sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi; serta sektor jasa-jasa jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 26 43 34 3) sektor bangunan serta sektor keuangan, persewaan, dan jasa perusahaan merupakan sektor ekonomi tertinggal di kabupaten cilacap. e. kabupaten kebumen hasil overlay antara analisis mrp dan analisis lq kabupaten kebumen disajikan pada tabel 6. berdasarkan hasil overlay antara analisis mrp dan analisis lq dapat diketahui bahwa. 1) tidak ada sektor ekonomi kabupaten kebumen yang mempunyai pertumbuhan yang menonjol sekaligus mempunyai kontribusi yang dominan. 2) sektor pertanian; sektor pertambangan dan penggalian; sektor keuangan, persewaan, dan jasa perusahaan; sektor jasa-jasa; sektor industri pengolahan; serta sektor bangunan merupakan sektor ekonomi potensial di kabupaten kebumen. 3) sektor listrik, gas, dan air bersih; sektor perdagangan, hotel, dan restoran; serta sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi merupakan sektor ekonomi tertinggal di kabupaten kebumen. 2. identifikasi subsektor ekonomi unggul dan potensial hasil overlay antara analisis mrp dan analisis lq masing-masing kabupaten anggota barlingmascakeb adalah sebagai berikut; a. kabupaten banjarnegara hasil overlay antara analisis mrp dan analisis lq kabupaten banjarnegara disajikan pada tabel 7. berdasarkan hasil overlay antara analisis mrp dan analisis lq dapat diketahui bahwa; 1) subsektor tanaman perkebunan, subsektor pengangkutan, serta subsektor jasa hiburan dan rekreasi merupakan subsektor ekonomi yang unggul di kabupaten banjarnegara, baik dalam hal pertumbuhan maupun kontribusi. 2) subsektor tanaman bahan makanan, subsektor perikanan, subsektor pemerintahan dan hankam, subsektor jasa sosial kemasyarakatan, serta subsektor jasa perorangan dan rumah tangga tabel 6. hasil overlay antara analisis mrp dan analisis lq kabupaten kebumen mrp + lq > 1 sektor potensial sektor pertanian; sektor pertambangan dan penggalian; sektor keuangan, persewaan, dan jasa perusahaan; serta sektor jasajasa sektor unggul < 1 sektor tertinggal sektor listrik, gas, dan air bersih; sektor perdagangan, hotel, dan restoran; serta sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi sektor potensial sektor industri pengolahan dan sektor bangunan identifikasi pengembangan wilayah kabupaten ... (diah setyorini g. dan ratna setyawati g.) 35 merupakan subsektor ekonomi potensial di kabupaten banjarnegara. 3) subsektor peternakan, subsektor kehutanan, subsektor industri non migas, dan subsektor komunikasi merupakan subsektor ekonomi tertinggal di kabupaten banjarnegara. b. kabupaten purbalingga hasil overlay antara analisis mrp dan analisis lq kabupaten purbalingga disajikan pada tabel 8. berdasarkan hasil overlay antara analisis mrp dan analisis lq dapat diketahui bahwa 1) subsektor listrik, subsektor perdagangan, serta subsektor pemerintahan dan hankam merupakan subsektor ekonomi yang unggul di kabupaten purbalingga, baik dalam hal pertumbuhan maupun kontribusi. 2) subsektor tanaman bahan makanan, subsektor tanaman perkebunan, subsektor peternakan, subsektor perikanan, subsektor penggalian, subsektor air bersih, subsektor hotel dan restoran, subsektor subsektor pengangkutan, subsektor komunikasi, serta subsektor jasa swasta merupakan subsektor ekonomi potensial di kabupaten purbalingga. tabel 7. hasil overlay antara analisis mrp dan analisis lq kabupatenbanjarnegara mrp + lq > 1 subsektor potensial subsektor tanaman bahan makanan serta subsektor pemerintahan dan hankam subsektor unggul subsektor tanaman perkebunan, subsektor pengangkutan, serta subsektor jasa hiburan dan rekreasi < 1 subsektor tertinggal subsektor peternakan, subsektor kehutanan, subsektor industri non migas, serta subsektor komunikasi subsektor potensial subsektor perikanan, subsektor jasa sosial kemasyarakatan, serta subsektor jasa perorangan dan rumah tangga tabel 8. hasil overlay antara analisis mrp dan analisis lq kabupaten purbalingga mrp + lq > 1 subsektor potensial subsektor tanaman bahan makanan, subsektor tanaman perkebunan, subsektor peternakan, subsektor hotel dan restoran, serta subsektor pengangkutan subsektor unggul subsektor listrik, subsektor perdagangan, subsektor pemerintahan dan hankam < 1 subsektor tertinggal subsektor kehutanan dan subsektor industri non migas subsektor potensial subsektor perikanan, subsektor penggalian, subsektor air bersih, subsektor komunikasi, dan subsektor jasa swasta jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 26 43 36 3) subsektor kehutanan dan subsektor industri non migas merupakan subsektor ekonomi tertinggal di kabupaten purbalingga. c. kabupaten banyumas hasil overlay antara analisis mrp dan analisis lq kabupaten banyumas disajikan pada tabel 9. berdasarkan hasil overlay antara analisis mrp dan analisis lq dapat diketahui bahwa; 1) subsektor perkebunan, subsektor penggalian, subsektor listrik, subsektor air bersih, dan subsektor sewa bangunan merupakan subsektor ekonomi yang unggul di kabupaten banyumas, baik dalam hal pertumbuhan maupun kontribusi. 2) subsektor tanaman bahan makanan, subsektor peternakan, subsektor kehutanan, subsektor perikanan, subsektor pengangkutan, subsektor komunikasi, subsektor bank, subsektor lembaga keuangan bukan bank, subsektor jasa perusahaan, subsektor pemerintahan dan hankam, serta subsektor jasa swasta merupakan subsektor ekonomi potensial di kabupaten banyumas. 3) subsektor industri non migas merupakan subsektor ekonomi tertinggal di kabupaten banyumas. d. kabupaten cilacap hasil overlay antara analisis mrp dan analisis lq kabupaten cilacap disajikan pada tabel 10. berdasarkan hasil overlay antara analisis mrp dan analisis lq dapat diketahui bahwa. 1) subsektor perdagangan merupakan subsektor ekonomi yang unggul di kabupaten cilacap, baik dalam hal pertumbuhan maupun kontribusi. 2) subsektor tanaman bahan makanan, subsektor peternakan, subsektor kehutanan, subsektor perikanan, subsektor penggalian, subsektor industri migas, subsektor listrik, subsektor pengangkutan, subsektor tabel 9. hasil overlay antara analisis mrp dan analisis lq kabupaten banyumas mrp + lq > 1 subsektor potensial subsektor tanaman bahan makanan, subsektor peternakan, subsektor kehutanan, subsektor pengangkutan, subsektor komunikasi, subsektor bank, subsektor lembaga keuangan bukan bank, subsektor pemerintahan dan hankam, serta subsektor jasa swasta subsektor unggul subsektor perkebunan, subsektor penggalian, subsektor listrik, subsektor air bersih, dan subsektor sewa bangunan < 1 subsektor tertinggal subsektor industri non migas subsektor potensial subsektor perikanan dan subsektor jasa perusahaan identifikasi pengembangan wilayah kabupaten ... (diah setyorini g. dan ratna setyawati g.) 37 jasa sosial kemasyarakatan, serta subsektor jasa perorangan dan rumah tangga merupakan subsektor ekonomi potensial di kabupaten cilacap. 3) subsektor perkebunan, subsektor industri non migas, subsektor air bersih, subsektor hotel, subsektor restoran, subsektor komunikasi, subsektor pemerintahan dan hankam, serta subsektor jasa hiburan dan rekreasi merupakan subsektor ekonomi tertinggal di kabupaten cilacap. e. kabupaten kebumen hasil overlay antara analisis mrp dan analisis lq kabupaten kebumen disajikan pada tabel 11. berdasarkan hasil overlay antara analisis mrp dan analisis lq dapat diketahui bahwa, 1) subsektor sewa bangunan, subsektor pemerintahan dan hankam, subsektor jasa sosial kemasyarakatan, serta subsektor jasa perorangan dan rumah tangga merupakan subsektor ekonomi yang unggul di kabupaten kebumen, baik dalam hal pertumbuhan maupun kontribusi. 2) subsektor tanaman bahan makanan, subsektor tanaman perkebunan, subsektor peternakan, subsektor kehutanan, subsektor penggalian, subsektor bank, subsektor lembaga keuangan bukan bank, subsektor jasa perusahaan, serta subsektor jasa hiburan dan rekreasi merupakan subsektor ekonomi potensial di kabupaten kebumen. 3) subsektor perikanan dan subsektor industri non migas merupakan subsektor ekonomi tertinggal di kabupaten kebumen. tabel 10. hasil overlay antara analisis mrp dan analisis lq kabupaten cilacap mrp + lq > 1 subsektor potensial subsektor kehutanan dan subsektor industri migas subsektor unggul subsektor perdagangan < 1 subsektor tertinggal subsektor perkebunan, subsektor industri non migas, subsektor air bersih, subsektor hotel, subsektor restoran, subsektor komunikasi, subsektor pemerintahan dan hankam, serta subsektor jasa hiburan dan rekreasi subsektor potensial subsektor tanaman bahan makanan, subsektor peternakan, subsektor perikanan, subsektor penggalian, subsektor listrik, subsektor pengangkutan, subsektor jasa sosial kemasyarakatan, serta subsektor jasa perorangan dan rumah tangga jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 26 43 38 3. analisis indeks divergensi regional krugman untuk mengamati dan melakukan analisis antarkabupaten dalam wilayah lembaga regional barlingmascakeb, digunakan indeks divergensi regional krugman untuk menghitung perbedaan struktur ekonomi. hasil perhitungan indeks divergensi regional krugman disajikan pada tabel 12 dan tabel 13. hasil perhitungan indeks divergensi regional krugman pada tahun 1995 dan 2002 menunjukkan bahwa terdapat perbedaan besar pada struktur ekonomi antara kabupaten cilacap dengan kabupaten-kabupaten anggota barlingmascakeb lainnya. hal ini dapat dilihat dari besarnya nilai indeks divergensi regional krugman antara kabupaten cilacap dan kabupaten banjarnegara, kabupaten cilacap dan kabupaten purbalingga, kabupaten cilacap dan kabupaten banyumas, serta kabupaten cilacap dan kabupaten kebumen yang mendekati satu dan lebih besar dari satu. hasil perhitungan indeks divergensi regional krugman pada tahun 1995 dan 2002 juga menunjukkan bahwa kabupaten banjarnegara, kabupaten purbalingga, kabupaten banyumas, dan kabupaten kebumen memiliki struktur ekonomi yang kurang lebih sama. hal ini tabel 12. perhitungan indeks divergensi regional krugmantahun 1995 banjarnegara purbalingga banyumas cilacap kebumen banjarnegara 0.237 0.302 1.101 0.234 purbalingga 0.336 1.076 0.298 banyumas 0.987 0.395 cilacap 1.159 kebumen keterangan: diolah dari data pdrb dengan sembilan sektor ekonomi data pdrb merupakan data pdrb dengan migas tabel 11. hasil overlay antara analisis mrp dan analisis lq kabupaten kebumen mrp + lq > 1 subsektor potensial subsektor tanaman bahan makanan, subsektor perkebunan, subsektor peternakan, subsektor kehutanan, subsektor penggalian, subsektor bank, serta subsektor jasa hiburan dan rekreasi subsektor unggul subsektor sewa bangunan, subsektor pemerintahan dan hankam, subsektor jasa sosial kemasyarakatan, serta subsektor jasa perorangan dan rumah tangga < 1 subsektor tertinggal subsektor perikanan dan subsektor industri non migas subsektor potensial subsektor lembaga keuangan bukan bank dan subsektor jasa perusahaan identifikasi pengembangan wilayah kabupaten ... (diah setyorini g. dan ratna setyawati g.) 39 dapat dilihat dari nilai indeks divergensi regional krugman yang mendekati nol. 4. analisis connectivity quotient (cq) analisis cq digunakan untuk mendeskripsikan akses antarkota dalam suatu wilayah. hasil perhitungan analisis cq disajikan pada tabel 14. berdasarkan hasil analisis cq, dapat dikatakan bahwa kabupaten purbalingga memiliki posisi yang menguntungkan dalam berinteraksi dengan kabupaten-kabupaten anggota lembaga regional barlingmascakeb lainnya. hal ini dapat dilihat dari nilai cq kabupaten purbalingga adalah yang terendah. berdasarkan hasil analisis cq, dapat dikatakan bahwa kabupaten kebumen memiliki posisi yang kurang menguntungkan dalam berinteraksi dengan kabupaten-kabupaten anggota lembaga regional barlingmascakeb lainnya. hal ini dapat dilihat dari nilai cq kabupaten kebumen adalah yang tertinggi. tabel 14. perhitungan connectivity quotient wilayah lembaga regional barlingmascakeb kabupaten nilai cq peringkat banjarnegara purbalingga banyumas cilacap kebumen 1,19 0,69 0,74 1,03 1,34 4 1 2 3 5 nilai cq terkait dengan tingkat aksesibilitas. berdasarkan analisis cq, kabupaten purbalingga, kabupaten banyumas, dan kabupaten cilacap tergolong peringkat tiga besar, di mana nilai cq kabupaten-kabupaten tersebut lebih rendah dibandingkan dengan kabupaten banjarnegara dan kabupaten kebumen. kabupaten purbalingga, kabupaten banyumas, dan kabupaten cilacap memiliki tingkat aksesibilitas yang lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan kabupaten banjarnegara dan kabupaten kebumen. terkait dengan kegiatan ekonomi suatu daerah, tingkat aksesibilitas yang tinggi menguntungkan daerah yang bersangkutan. tabel 13. perhitungan indeks divergensi regional krugmantahun 2002 banjarnegara purbalingga banyumas cilacap kebumen banjarnegara 0.263 0.337 1.029 0.274 purbalingga 0.281 1.158 0.311 banyumas 1.02 0.346 cilacap 1.15 kebumen keterangan: diolah dari data pdrb dengan sembilan sektor ekonomi data pdrb merupakan data pdrb dengan migas jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 26 43 40 kesimpulan 1. ditinjau dari tingkat pertumbuhan dan pendapatan per kapita, pada periode 1995-2002, dari lima kabupaten anggota barlingmascakeb hanya kabupaten cilacap yang termasuk dalam klasifikasi daerah cepat maju dan cepat tumbuh. kabupaten purbalingga termasuk dalam klasifikasi daerah berkembang cepat. anggota-anggota barlingmascakeb yang lain, yaitu kabupaten banjarnegara, kabupaten banyumas, dan kabupaten kebumen termasuk dalam klasifikasi daerah relatif tertinggal. 2. berdasarkan hasil overlay antara analisis mrp dan analisis lq dapat diketahui sektor ekonomi unggul dan sektor ekonomi potensial kabupaten-kabupaten anggota barlingmascakeb. tabel 15 menyajikan informasi sektor ekonomi unggul dan sektor ekonomi potensial kabupaten-kabupaten anggota barlingmascakeb. 3. berdasarkan identifikasi lebih lanjut terhadap sektor ekonomi unggul dan sektor ekonomi potensial diperoleh informasi subsektor ekonomi unggul dan subsektor ekonomi potensial kabupaten-kabupaten anggota barlingmascakeb. tabel 16 menyajikan informasi subsektor ekonomi unggul dan subsektor ekonomi potensial kabupaten-kabupaten anggota barlingmascakeb. 4. pada periode 1995 dan 2002, terdapat perbedaan yang besar pada struktur ekonomi antara kabupaten cilacap dengan kabupaten-kabupaten anggota barlingmascakeb lainnya. kabupaten banjarnegara, kabupaten purbalingga, kabupaten banyumas, dan kabupaten kebumen memiliki struktur ekonomi yang kurang lebih sama. 5. ditinjau dari tingkat aksesibilitas, kabupaten purbalingga memiliki posisi wilayah yang paling menguntungkan dalam berinteraksi dengan kabupatenkabupaten anggota barlingmascakeb lainnya. kabupaten purbalingga memiliki tingkat aksesibilitas yang paling tinggi dalam wilayah lembaga regional barlingmascakeb, diikuti oleh kabupaten banyumas yang menempati peringkat kedua dan kabupaten cilacap yang menempati peringkat ketiga. kabupaten banjarnegara dan kabupaten kebumen memiliki posisi wilayah yang kurang menguntungkan dalam berinteraksi dengan kabupatenkabupaten anggota barlingmascakeb lainnya. kabupaten banjarnegara dan kabupaten kebumen memiliki tingkat aksesibilitas yang lebih rendah dibandingkan dengan kabupaten purbalingga, kabupaten banyumas, dan kabupaten cilacap. saran yang diajukan penulis berkaitan dengan penelitian ini, yaitu: 1. pengembangan wilayah kabupatenkabupaten anggota lembaga regional barlingmascakeb harus diupayakan melalui strategi pembangunan yang tepat dengan memperhatikan potensi masing-masing kabupaten. potensi yang dimiliki oleh setiap kabupaten merupakan modal dasar bagi pembangunan ekonomi yang berkelanjutan. identifikasi pengembangan wilayah kabupaten ... (diah setyorini g. dan ratna setyawati g.) 41 2. sektor-sektor ekonomi potensial hendaknya dikembangkan sehingga di masa-masa yang akan datang sektorsektor ekonomi tersebut dapat diandalkan menjadi sektor-sektor ekonomi unggul. pengembangan sektor-sektor ekonomi potensial dapat dilakukan dengan cara sebagai berikut: a. memanfaatkan kekayaan sumberdaya alam dan sumberdaya manusia yang dimiliki oleh masingmasing kabupaten. b. membangun infrastruktur fisik yang menunjang pengembangan masing masing sektor. tabel 15. sektor ekonomi unggul dan sektor ekonomi potensial kabupaten kabupaten anggota barlingmascakeb kabupaten sektor ekonomi unggul sektor ekonomi potensial banjarnegara sektor bangunan dan sektor jasajasa sektor pertanian; sektor industri pengolahan; sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi; serta sektor keuangan, persewaan, dan jasa perusahaan purbalingga sektor jasa-jasa sektor pertanian; sektor pertambangan dan penggalian; sektor industri pengolahan; sektor listrik, gas, dan air bersih; sektor bangunan; sektor perdagangan, hotel, dan restoran; serta sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi banyumas sektor pertambangan dan penggalian serta sektor listrik, gas, dan air bersih sektor pertanian; sektor industri pengolahan; sektor bangunan; sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi; sektor keuangan, persewaan, dan jasa perusahaan; serta sektor jasa-jasa cilacap sektor industri pengolahan serta sektor perdagangan, hotel, dan restoran sektor pertanian; sektor pertambangan dan penggalian; sektor listrik, gas, dan air bersih; sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi; serta sektor jasa-jasa kebumen sektor pertanian; sektor pertambangan dan penggalian; sektor industri pengolahan; sektor bangunan; sektor keuangan, persewaan, dan jasa perusahaan; serta sektor jasa-jasa jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 26 43 42 c. mengundang para investor dan mengadakan kredit lunak dengan pengelolaan secara profesional. d. mengadakan koordinasi antara pemerintah daerah dengan para pelaku usaha di masing-masing sektor. tabel 16. subsektor ekonomi unggul dan subsektor ekonomi potensial kabupatenkabupaten anggota barlingmascakeb kabupaten subsektor ekonomi unggul subsektor ekonomi potensial banjarnegara subsektor tanaman perkebunan, subsektor pengangkutan, serta subsektor jasa hiburan dan rekreasi subsektor tanaman bahan makanan, subsektor perikanan, subsektor pemerintahan dan hankam, subsektor jasa sosial kemasyarakatan, serta subsektor jasa perorangan dan rumah tangga purbalingga subsektor listrik, subsektor perdagangan, serta subsektor pemerintahan dan hankam subsektor tanaman bahan makanan, subsektor tanaman perkebunan, subsektor peternakan, subsektor perikanan, subsektor penggalian, subsektor air bersih, subsektor hotel dan restoran, subsektor pengangkutan, subsektor komunikasi, serta subsektor jasa swasta banyumas subsektor tanaman perkebunan, subsektor penggalian, subsektor listrik, subsektor air bersih, dan subsektor sewa bangunan subsektor tanaman bahan makanan, subsektor peternakan, subsektor kehutanan, subsektor perikanan, subsektor pengangkutan, subsektor komunikasi, subsektor bank, subsektor lembaga keuangan bukan bank, subsektor jasa perusahaan, subsektor pemerintahan dan hankam, serta subsektor jasa swasta cilacap subsektor perdagangan subsektor tanaman bahan makanan, subsektor tanaman perkebunan, subsektor peternakan, subsektor perikanan, subsektor penggalian, subsektor industri migas, subsektor listrik, subsektor pengangkutan, subsektor jasa sosial dan kemasyarakatan, serta subsektor jasa perorangan dan rumah tangga kebumen subsektor sewa bangunan, subsektor pemerintahan dan hankam, subsektor jasa sosial kemasyarakatan, serta subsektor jasa perorangan dan rumah tangga subsektor tanaman bahan makanan, subsektor tanaman perkebunan, subsektor peternakan, subsektor kehutanan, subsektor penggalian, subsektor bank, subsektor lembaga keuangan bukan bank, subsektor jasa perusahaan, serta subsektor jasa hiburan dan rekreasi identifikasi pengembangan wilayah kabupaten ... (diah setyorini g. dan ratna setyawati g.) 43 daftar pustaka arsyad, l. 1999. pengantar perencanaan dan pembangunan ekonomi daerah. edisi pertama. yogyakarta: bpfe. badan pusat statistik. 1995-2002. pendapatan regional kabupaten kebumen 1995-2002. bps, kebumen. badan pusat statistik. 1995-2002. pendapatan regional kabupaten banjarnegara 19952002. bps banjarnegara. badan pusat statistik. 1995-2002. pendapatan regional kabupaten banyumas 1995-2002. bps, banyumas. badan pusat statistik. 1995-2002. pendapatan regional kabupaten cilacap 1995-2002. bps, cilacap. badan pusat statistik. 1995-2002. pendapatan regional kabupaten purbalingga 19952002. bps, purbalingga. badan pusat statistik. 1995-2002. pendapatan regional provinsi jawa tengah 1995-2002. bps, semarang. barlingmascakeb. 2003. selayang pandang barlingmascakeb. http://www.barlingmascakeb.com accessed dec 21, 2004. bendavid-val, a. 1991. regional and local economic analysis for practitioners. fourth edition. new york: praeger. kuncoro, m. 2002. analisis spasial dan regional: studi aglomerasi dan kluster industri industri. yogyakarta: upp amp ykpn. sjafrizal. 1997. “pertumbuhan ekonomi dan ketimpangan regional wilayah indonesia bagian barat.” prisma, no. 03, maret. yusuf, m. 1999. “model rasio pertumbuhan (mrp) sebagai salah satu alat analisis alternatif dalam perencanaan wilayah dan kota: aplikasi model wilayah bangka-belitung”. ekonomi dan keuangan indonesia, volume xlvii, no. 2: 219-233. image (478).jpg image (479).jpg image (480).jpg image (481).jpg image (482).jpg image (483).jpg image (484).jpg image (485).jpg image (486).jpg image (487).jpg image (488).jpg image (489).jpg image (490).jpg image (491).jpg image (2).jpg image (3).jpg image (4).jpg image (5).jpg image (6).jpg image (7).jpg image (8).jpg image (9).jpg image (10).jpg image (11).jpg image (12).jpg image (13).jpg microsoft word 06-agus jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 11, nomor 1, april 2010, hlm.63-72   rencana pembangunan super market lion super indo agus tri basuki fakultas ekonomi universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta jalan lingkar selatan, tamantirto, kasihan, bantul yogyakarta, indonesia telepon:+62-274-387656 e-mail: agustribasuki@yahoo.com abstract: this study aimed to see whether the development plans of the lion super indo super market meet the economic feasibility. investment plans of the establishment of the super indo supermarket at jalan parangtritis is one of the business development program of pt lion super indo through the opening of branch offices. based on the results of feasibility studies, investment plans are feasible to implement, especially in terms of some aspects of the feasibility. although it is economically feasible, but lion super indo need to do a corporate social responsibility which is expected to reduce the negative externalities. keywords:economic feasibility study, corporate social responsibility, investment abstrak: penelitian ini bertujuan melihat apakah rencana pembangunan super market lion super indo memenuhi kelayakan secara ekonomi. rencana investasi pendirian swalayan super indo di jalan parangtritis merupakan salah satu program pengembangan bisnis pt lion super indo melalui pembukaan kantor cabang. berdasarkan hasil studi kelayakan, rencana investasi ini layak untuk dilaksanakan, terutama ditinjau dari beberapa aspek kelayakan. walaupun secara ekonomi layak tetapi lion super indo perlu melakukan corporate social responsibility yang diharapkan dapat mengurangi eksternalitas negatif. kata kunci:studi kelayakan ekonomi, corporate social responsibility, investasi pendahuluan dengan mengacu terhadap kebijakan pemerintah yang mengarah pada peberdayaan usaha kecil dan menengah, tentunya akan memberikan peluang bagi pemilik modal untuk membidik pasar yang berkaitan dengan usaha supermarket. salah satu unit usaha yang mungkin layak untuk dijalankan adalah unit usaha penjualan di pasar modern. unit usaha ini bukan berarti tidak memberikan dukungan terhadap sektor usaaha kecil dan menengah di dalam negeri, melainkan sebagai pelaku usaha kita harus pandai memanfaatkan peluang. terlebih ketika harga produk lokal mahal dan tidak sebanding dengan kualitasnya, maka pelaku usaha akan cenderung memilih barang impor yang mampu memberikan manfaat lebih. persaingan dalam usaha penjualan barang melalui pasar swalayan memang sudah kompetitif. banyak sekali kita jumpai beberapa toko, baik sekala besar ataupun skala kecil, baik itu dilakukan di toko, kios, outlet, atau tempat berjualan lain seperti di pasar, swalayan, maupun pusat perbelanjaan modern. untuk dapat bersaing dalam usaha yang bersangkutan, salah satu cara yang dilakukan adalah dengan melakukan pemilihan segmen yang tepat, potensial dan belum banyak digarap oleh pihak lain, kemudian menawarkan beberapa keunggulan dan nilai lebih bagi konsumen yang menjadi segmen usaha kita. berdasarkan data dari peraturan walikota yogyakarta nomor 17 tahun 2007 tentang rencana pembangunan jangka menengah daerah (rpjmd) kota yogyakarta tahun 2007–2011, saat ini terdapat 31 titik pasar tradisional yang tersebar di wilayah kota yogyakarta. pasar giwangan termasuk pasar kelas i, melayani perdagangan tingkat regional. pasar beringharjo, termasuk dalam pasar kelas ii; yakni pasar yang melayani perdagangan tingkat kota. dela jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 11, nomor 1, april 2010: 63-72 64 pan pasar lainnya termasuk dalam pasar kelas iii; yang melayani perdagangan tingkat wilayah bagian kota. sebelas pasar termasuk dalam kelas iv (dua pasar beririsan dengan kelas iii) yang melayani perdagangan tingkat lingkungan. pasar kelas v berjumlah 12 pasar yang melayani perdagangan tingkat blok. pasar-pasar tradisional ini terletak menyebar di seluruh penjuru wilayah kota. dengan melihat peta dan potensi pelaku usaha di bidang perdagangan di kota yogyakarta nampaknya masih ada peluang untuk mengembangkan pasar modern di selatan kota yogyakarta. peluang ini bisa ditangkap karena pemerintah kabupaten bantul yang membuat kebijakan membatasan pasar modern, sehingga peluang ini dimanfaatkan oleh super indo untuk mendirikan supermarket yang berlokasi di jalan parangtritis yogyakarta. dasar hukum pendirian supermarket. dasar hukum yang menjadi acuan pendirian supermarket ini adalah (1) peraturan presiden no 112 tahun 2007 tentang penataan dan pembinaan pasar tradisional, pusat perbelanjaan, dan toko modern telah disahkan. peraturan yang diberitakan sudah terpinggirkan selama hampir tiga tahun ini dipandang sangat penting, terutama dalam menjembatani kepentingan pegiat pasar tradisional dan pemain ritel modern. (2) peraturan menteri perdagangan republik indonesia nomor: 53/m-dag/per/ 12/2008 tentang pedoman penataan dan pembinaan pasar tradisional, pusat perbelanjaan, dan toko modern. berdasarkan peraturan presiden no 112 tahun 2007. pendirian supermarket super indo di jalan parangtritis yogyakarta sudah memenuhi persyaratan peraturan presiden no 112 tahun 2007 tentang penataan dan pembinaan pasar tradisional, pusat perbelanjaan, dan toko modern. beberapa persyaratan yang harus dipenuhi adalah sebagai berikut: (1) lokasi pendirian supermarket super indo sudah mengacu pada rencana tata ruang wilayah kota yogyakarta dan rencana detail tata ruang, termasuk peraturan zonasinya; (2) super indo memperhatikan jarak antara supermarket dengan pasar tradisional yang telah ada sebelumnya (minimal berjarak 600 m telah terpenuhi); (3) super indo adalah toko dengan sistem pelayanan mandiri, menjual berbagai jenis barang secara eceran yang berbentuk supermarket; (4) luas lantai supermarket super indo antara 400 m2 (empat ratus meter per segi) sampai dengan 5.000 m2 (lima ribu meter per segi); (5) sistem penjualan dan jenis barang dagangan super indo menjual secara eceran barang konsumsi terutama produk makanan dan produk rumah tangga lainnya; (6) keberadaan super indo telah memperhitungkan kondisi sosial ekonomi masyarakat, keberadaan pasar tradisional, usaha kecil dan usaha menengah yang ada di wilayah yang bersangkutan; (7) menyediakan fasilitas yang menjamin pusat perbelanjaan dan toko modern yang bersih, sehat (hygienic), aman, tertib, dan ruang publik yang nyaman. permintaan. (1) perkembangan permintaan saat ini. dewasa ini, kalau kita cermati, permintaan akan kebutuhan barang keperluan seharihari semakin meningkat seiring dengan meningkatnya kesadaran masyarakat akan pentingnya sebagai penunjang kebutuhan rumah tangga. terlebih dengan ditunjang oleh beragam cara yang mudah bagi masyarakat untuk mendapatkan barang kebutuhan sehari-hari (buah-buahan dan sayur-sayuran) yang segar. (2) prospek permintaan di masa yang akan datang. banjirnya berbagai macam produk makanan dan minuman yang serba instan dimasyarakat akan menyebabkan kondisi persaingan produkproduk yang berbahan kimia tersebut akan mengalami kejenuhan seiring dengan tingginya persaingan pada industri tersebut. kondisi tersebut akan memunculkan titik balik dimana akan ditandai dengan berkurangnya permintaan akan produk produk tersebut, dan komsumen beralih ke produk lain yang sejenis yang nonkimia. terlebih ketika sekarang sedang ada trend dari masyarakat yang lebih menyukai produk–produk makanan maupun minuman herbal dan natural, maka kondisi tersebut jelas akan memunculkan peluang bagi kegiatan bisnis di sektor herbal, tentunya bagi sektor pertanian seperti buah-buahan dan sayur-sayuran juga akan meningkat seiring dengan tingginya kesadaran masyarakat akan kesehatan mereka. penawaran. (1) perkembangan penawaran saat ini. perkembangan penawaran di sektor rencana pembangunan super market (agus tri basuki) 65 usaha swalayan pada saat ini memang relatif bagus. hal tersebut disebabkan karena sektor usaha ini memang dibutuhkan keberadaannya oleh masyarakat. oleh karena itu, agar usaha pasar modern menjadi lebih baik maka perlu peningkatan penawaran yang memberikan nilai lebih bagi konsumen. apalagi di yogyakarta bagian selatan belum memiliki swalayan terlengkap dibandingkan dengan yogyakarta bagian utara. ditambah lagi kebijakan bupati bantul yang melarang keberadaan pasar swalayan modern beroperasi di sekitar kabupaten bantul. sehingga keberadaan swalayan pt. lion super indo sangat dibutuhkan oleh masyarakat di sekitar bantul utara. (2) prospek penawaran di masa yang akan datang. mengingat adanya peluang yang besar dalam usaha penjualan kebutuhan rumah tangga pada masa yang akan datang, maka perlu adanya penawaran produk yang memberikan nilai lebih dan manfaat bagi konsumen. penawaran tersebut akan semakin variatif maupun lebih kompetitif karena sudah ditunjang dengan perangkat teknologi informasi yang memberikan kemudahan bagi bagi penjual maupun pembeli dalam melakukan transaksi atau sebatas bertukar informasi. oleh karena itu, bagi pelaku usaha di sektor ini harus mampu melakukan penawaran yang inovatif untuk menarik pasar. metode penelitian analisis kelayakan pemasaran dalam melakukan analisis permintaan, digunakan model matrik pembobotan berskala 1–5. keterangan: sangat lemah adalah skala 1; lemah adalah skala 2; sedang adalah skala 3; kuat adalah skala 4; dan sangat kuat adalah skala 5; (lihat tabel 1). interval=(nilai tertinggi dari interval–nilai terendah dari interval)/jumlah kelas=(5–1)/5 =0,8. untuk mengetahui layak atau tidaknya dari segi pemasaran maka dapat dicari dengan rumus; kelayakan usaha = total bobot jumlah item yang dinilai = 75/20 = 3,75 berdasarkan hasil yang diperoleh sebesar 3,75 maka usaha pasar modern dari sisi pemasaran dikatakan layak karena masuk pada range 3,41 – 4,20, lihat tabel 2. tabel 1. matrik kelayakan pemasaran no aspek sangat lemah lemah sedang kuat sangat kuat 1 sdm v 2 pesaing v 3 konsumen v 4 teknologi v 5 mode/trend v 6 armada pemasaran v 7 harga v 8 promosi v 9 distribusi v 10 produk dan lini produk v 11 mutu produk v 12 peraturan pemerintah v 13 lingkungan bisnis v 14 ketersediaan bahan baku v 15 rencana pemasaran v 16 penyimpangan produk v 17 margin laba v 18 ketersediaan modal v 19 pangsa pasar v 20 manajemen pemasaran v total bobot 0 2 18 40 15 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 11, nomor 1, april 2010: 63-72 66 tabel 2. kriteria hasil kelayakan pemasaran nilai keterangan 1,00 – 1,80 sangat tidak layak 1,81 – 2,60 tidak layak 2,61 – 3,40 sedang 3,41 – 4,20 layak 4,21 – 5,00 sangat layak analisis persaingan untuk melakukan analisis terhadap kondisi persaingan pada usaha toko buah impor, maka kami menggunakan analisis matrik persaingan, yaitu dengan cara: (1) membandingkan usaha satu dengan usaha lain yang sejenis pada faktor persaingannya, semakin bagus maka semakin tinggi skornya. skala penilaian yang digunakan adalah skala 1–5. (2) membandingkan tingkat kepentingan dari masing–masing faktor. semakin penting, maka skornya semakin tinggi. skala penilaian yang digunakan adalah skala 1–5 . berdasarkan pada tabel matrik analisis tingkat persaingan, maka dapat disimpulkan bahwa usaha lion super indo menduduki peringkat teratas untuk kekuatan kompetitifnya, sedangkan pesaing yang paling besar adalah swalayan, lihat tabel 3. aspek teknis dan operasi rencana pengembangan. (1) evaluasi lokasi. lokasi yang dipilih untuk mendirikan bangunan sebagai tempat usaha adalah jalan parangtritis yogyakarta. lokasi ini dipilih karena selama ini pasar modern selalu ada di pusat kota (yogyakarta utara), sedangkan di lokasi ini belum ada pasar swalayan terlengkap dan jalan parangtritis merupakan pintu masuk bagi masyarakat bantul yang mau ke yogyakarta. (2) sarana dan prasarana. sarana yang akan kami gunakan untuk menunjang kegiatan usaha kami adalah dengan memanfatkan: machine teller, ac, troli, toilet, meja kursi, ruang tunggu, tempat parkir, kendaraan, dan lain-lain. sedangkan untuk prasarananya kami menggunakan gedung seluas 1.632,4 m2, yang terdiri dari 1.279 m2 untuk selling dan 353,4 m2 untuk back area. sedangkan untuk luas parkir mobil cukup untuk 70 buah mobil. total tanah yang kita miliki adalah 3.750 m2. (3) tenaga ahli dan tenaga biasa. tenaga ahli yang dipekerjakan untuk menunjang kelancaran usaha toko super indo adalah tenaga ahli pemasaran, keuangan, dan sumber daya manusia serta teknisi sarana dan prasarana pendukung usaha. sedangkan untuk tenaga biasa yang kami gunakan adalah wiraniaga, tenaga serabutan/kurir dan bagian cleaning service. (4) bahan–bahan utama. bahan utama yang digunakan dalam menjalankan usaha pasar modern antara lain: berbagai macam buah segar impor dengan kualitas yang baik dan beberapa buah segar produksi lokal yang berkualitas, serta semua barang kebutuhan rumah tangga (5) bangunan dan tata letak bangunan. berkaitan dengan bangunan dan tata letak bangunan, akan didirikan di atas tanah seluas 3.750 m2 dimana luas tanah untuk mendirikan bangunan toko 1.632,4 m2, dan 1000 m2 untuk tempat parkir. untuk luas bangunan toko adalah 1.543,7 m2 dengan dua lantai. bentuk bangunan berupa ruangan berlantai 2. tata letak bangunan antara lain bangunan utama sebagai tempat berjualan, tempat parkir, kafe buah, loby, ruang tabel 3. matrik analisis tingkat persaingan faktor persaingan pasar mini market swalayan super indo a b ab a b ab a b ab a b ab harga 2 3 6 2 3 6 4 3 12 4 4 16 kualitas 3 2 6 3 3 9 4 5 20 4 5 20 promosi 2 2 4 3 4 12 4 5 20 4 5 20 jasa khusus 2 2 4 3 3 9 4 4 16 4 4 16 pelayanan 2 3 6 3 4 12 4 4 16 4 4 16 suasana 1 2 2 3 2 6 5 4 20 5 5 25 lokasi 2 2 4 4 3 12 4 5 20 4 5 20 kekuatan relatif 32 66 124 134 rencana pembangunan super market (agus tri basuki) 67 informasi dan penitipan,serta toilet. (6) jadwal pelaksanaan. usaha swalayan kebutuhan rumah tangga akan mulai didirikan pada awal tahun 2010 untuk kegiatan pembangunan gedung, dan kegiatan operasional penjualan mulai launching dan diperkenalkan ke masyarakat mulai akhir 2010. (7) perkiraan biaya teknis dan operasi. biaya teknis dan operasional diperkirakan mencapai rp9.000.000.000,-. rencana pengoperasian usaha. (1) proses operasi usaha. proses operasi perusahaan meliputi rencana penjualan, rencana persediaan produk, penjadwalan pegawai dan penggajian, pengawasan kualitas, dan pengawasan biaya penjualan dan pemesanan. (2) kebutuhan bahan operasi. kebutuhan bahan operasi pt lion super indo dikelola oleh masing masing departemen dan nantinya dikoordinasikan dengan pimpinan mengenai kebutuhan bahan operasi yang meliputi pendanaan, jumlah produk dan kegiatan kemasaran. (3) kegiatan perawatan mesin. kegiatan perawatan mesin menggunakan tenaga ahli mesin sesuai dengan mesin-mesin yang kami gunakan. misalnya perawatan kendaraan, perawatan ac, rak pendingin, dan troli. perawatan dilakukan secara berkala dan berkelanjutan dengan menggunakan tenaga ahli dari mitra kerja kami. hasil dan pembahasan aspek keuangan kebutuhan dana investasi. (1) investasi harga tetap. investasi ini mencapai: rp5.000.000.000,00. digunakan untuk sewa tanah dan bangunan selama 20 tahun. (2) biaya pra operasi. biaya pra operasi mencapai: rp25.000.000,00 yang digunakan untuk proses pembuatan studi kelayakan, amdal, dan rencana kemitraan dengan umkm. (3) modal kerja. modal kerja digunakan untuk membiayai seluruh aktiva lancar yang mencapai rp3.975.000,00. total kebutuhan dana investasi sebesar rp9.000.000.000,00. rencana pembelanjaan dan sumber dana (1) modal sendiri modal sendiri rp 5.000.000.000,00 (2) pinjaman bank pinjaman dari bank rp 4.000.000.000,00 rencana kebutuhan dana (1) aktiva tetap sewa tanah dan bangunan rp 5.000.000.000,00 rak pendingin, 100 buah rp 75.000.000,00 sofa, 5 set rp 7.000.000.00 troli, 50 buah rp 25.000.000,00 kranjang tas 100 buah rp 1.500.000,00 timbangan, 4 buah rp 1.000.000,00 komputer dan machine teller, 9 buah rp 27.000.000 ,00 mobil operasional 2 buah rp 160.000.000,00 motor 2 buah rp 24.000.000,00 ac 30 buah rp 75.000.000,00 rak 100 buah rp 100.000.000,00 jumlah aktiva tetap rp 5.495.500.000,00 (2) aktiva lancar kas rp 500.000.000,00 barang dagangan rp 3.004.500.000,00 ---------------------------+ jumlah aktiva lancar rp 3.504.500.000,00 total aktiva rp 9.000.000.000,00 proyeksi keuangan (1) proyeksi pendapatan pendapatan per hari rp 3.611.111,00 pendapatan per bulan rp 108.333.333,00 pendapatan per tahun rp 1.300.000.000,00 (2) proyeksi biaya per tahun pengadaan barang rp 700.000.000,00 gaji karyawan 1 pimpinan rp 36.000.000,00 3 manajer rp 48.000.000,00 1 kabag. pelayanan rp 18.000.000,00 33 pelayan toko rp 268.000.000.00 1 kabag. pergudangan rp 18.000.000,00 4 karyawan gudang rp 33.600.000,00 3 driver rp 25.200.000,00 4 satpam rp 33.600.000,00 8 petugas parkir rp 48.000.000,00 2 tenaga srabutan rp 12.000.000,00 jumlah gaji karyawan rp 541.200.000,00 biaya listrik rp 60.000.000,00 pbb rp 4.800.000,00 ppn rp 148.480.000,00 biaya telp. rp 7.000.000,00 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 11, nomor 1, april 2010: 63-72 68 perlengkapan kebersihan rp 1.000.000,00 dep komp/machin teller rp 3.000.000,00 dep kendaraan rp 20.000.000,00 dep sofa 2th rp 3.500.000,00 dep rak pendingin 3th rp 25.000.000.00 dep troli 5th rp 5.000.000,00 dep timbangan 2th rp 500.000,00 dep keranjang 1th rp 1.500.000,00 jumlah biaya rp 279.780.000,00 (3) proyeksi rugi/laba perhitungan laba/rugi yaitu dengan menghitung selisih dari pendapatan dengan pengeluaran. (4) perhitungan kelayakan usaha (a) dengan metode payback period. payback period adalah suatu periode yang diperlukan untuk menutup kembali pengeluaran investasi (initial cash investment) dengan menggunakan aliran kas, dengan kata lain payback period merupakan rasio antara initial cash investment dengan cash flow-nya yang hasilnya merupakan satuan waktu. selanjutnya nilai rasio ini dibandingkan dengan maximum payback period yang diterima. dari hasil analisis dapat disimpulkan payback period untuk pengembalian investasi pendirian swalayan super indo memerlukan waktu 149 bulan (12 tahun 5 bulan). (b) dengan net present value (npv). net present value yaitu selisih antara present value dari investasi dengan nilai sekarang dari penerimaanpenerimaan kas bersih (aliran kas operasional maupun aliran kas terminal) di masa yang akan datang. untuk menghitung nilai sekarang perlu ditentukan tingkat bunga yang relevan. rumus: npv = ∑ (cft / (1+k)t) – i0 dimana: cft adalah aliran kas pertahun periode t, i0 adalah investasi awal pada tahun 0, k adalah suku bunga (discount rate). dengan demikian investasi yang dilakukan dalam pembuatan usaha swalayan penjualan barang keperluan rumah tangga dapat dikatakan layak karena hasil dari npv positif yaitu sebesar rp132.091.366,00, lihat tabel 5. aspek ekonomi dan sosial peningkatan pendapatan asli daerah. dampak didirikan pasar modern (super indo) terhadap pendapatan asli kota yogyakarta adalah: tabel 4. payback period investasi swalayan super indo jalan parangtritis yogyakarta no tahun investasi proceed balance waktu (bulan) 1 0 9;000;000;000 2 1 -36.180.000 9.036.180.000 12 3 2 40.130.000 8.996.050.000 12 4 3 132.083.500 8.863.966.500 12 5 4 233.239.695 8.630.726.805 12 6 5 353.911.036 8.276.815.769 12 7 6 487.322.657 7.789.493.113 12 8 7 644.193.950 7.145.299.162 12 9 8 818.202.536 6.327.096.626 12 10 9 1.020.570.871 5.306.525.755 12 11 10 1.245.535.807 4.060.989.948 12 12 11 1.423.293.414 2.637.696.534 12 13 12 1.712.067.426 925.629.108 12 14 13 2.124.469.705 -1.198.840.597 12 15 14 2.492.985.184 -3.691.825.781 12 16 15 2.912.821.748 -6.604.647.529 12 17 16 3.380.813.633 -9.985.461.162 12 18 17 3.911.690.922 -13.897.152.084 12 19 18 4.503.587.818 -18.400.739.902 12 20 19 5.172.678.442 -23.573.418.345 12 21 20 5.918.700.976 -29.492.119.321 12 payback period 149 rencana pembangunan super market (agus tri basuki) 69 (1) peningkatan retribusi parkir. swalayan super indo menyediakan lahan parkir yang mampu menampung 70 buah mobil. (2) peningkatan pajak bumi dan bangunan. lahan yang ditempati swalayan super indo sebesar 3750 m2. dampak terhadap lingkungan masyarakat. dampak didirikan pasar modern (super indo) terhadap lingkungan masyarakat di sekitar lokasi adalah (1) adanya peningkatan ekonomi masyarakat khususnya para karyawan. (2) adanya lowongan lapangan pekerjaan baru. (3) peningkatan gizi masyarakat melalui konsumsi buah berkualitas dampak terhadap usaha kecil dan pasar tradisional. beberapa kebijakan pemerintah telah dikeluarkan untuk menata pengelolaan perpasaran, baik pasar modern maupun pasar tradisional. implementasi kebijakan ini menuntut komitmen lebih besar agar dapat dilaksanakan secara konsisten; secara makro, beberapa hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kehadiran pasar modern telah mengancam eksistensi pasar tradisional. fakta ini antara lain diungkap dalam penelitian ac nielson yang menyatakan bahwa pasar modern telah tumbuh sebesar 31,4 persen. bersamaan dengan itu, pasar tradisional telah tumbuh secara negatif sebesar 8 persen. berdasarkan kenyataan ini maka pasar tradisional akan habis dalam kurun waktu sekitar 12 tahun yang akan datang, sehingga perlu adanya langkah preventif untuk menjaga kelangsungan pasar tradisional termasuk kelangsungan usaha perdagangan (ritel) yang dikelola oleh koperasi dan ukm. berdasarkan hasil penelitian ini diketahui bahwa dampak keberadaan pasar modern terhadap pasar tradisional adalah dalam hal penurunan omzet penjualan. hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa dari 3 variabel yang diteliti, variabel omzet penjualan pasar tradisional menunjukkan perbedaan yang signifikan antara sebelum dan sesudah hadirnya pasar modern dimana omzet setelah ada pasar modern lebih rendah dibandingkan sebelum hadirnya pasar tabel 5. npv investasi pendirian swalayan super indo jalan parangtritis yogyakarta no tahun investasi proceed df10% pv proceed 1 0 9.000.000.000 2 1 -36.180.000 0,909 -32.891.238 3 2 40.130.000 0,826 33.163.432 4 3 132.083.500 0,751 99.234.334 5 4 233.239.695 0,683 159.302.712 6 5 353.911.036 0,621 219.743.362 7 6 487.322.657 0,565 275.093.640 8 7 644.193.950 0,513 330.600.335 9 8 818.202.536 0,467 381.691.483 10 9 1.020.570.871 0,424 432.824.106 11 10 1.245.535.807 0,386 480.154.054 12 11 1.423.293.414 0,351 498.864.342 13 12 1.712.067.426 0,319 545.464.682 14 13 2.124.469.705 0,290 615.458.874 15 14 2.492.985.184 0,263 656.402.999 16 15 2.912.821.748 0,239 697.329.526 17 16 3.380.813.633 0,218 735.665.047 18 17 3.911.690.922 0,120 468.542.339 19 18 4.503.587.818 0,180 810.195.449 20 19 5.172.678.442 0,164 845.732.925 21 20 5.918.700.976 0,149 879.518.965 total present value 9.132.091.366 nilai investasi 9.000.000.000 npv 132.091.366 proyek go keterangan: jika npv > 0 usulan proyek diterima ( positif ) ; jika npv < 0 usulan proyek ditolak ( negatif ) jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 11, nomor 1, april 2010: 63-72 70 modern. sedangkan variabel lainnya, yaitu jumlah tenaga kerja dan harga jual barang tidak menunjukkan perbedaan yang signifikan. usaha pengurangan dampak sosial ekonomi. sebagai bagian dari konsep corporate social responsibility (csr), csr berhubungan erat dengan "pembangunan berkelanjutan", di mana ada argumentasi bahwa suatu perusahaan dalam melaksanakan aktivitasnya harus mendasarkan keputusannya tidak semata berdasarkan faktor keuangan, misalnya keuntungan atau deviden melainkan juga harus berdasarkan konsekuensi sosial dan lingkungan untuk saat ini maupun untuk jangka panjang. kepedulian kepada masyarakat sekitar/relasi komunitas dapat diartikan sangat luas, namun secara singkat dapat dimengerti sebagai peningkatan partisipasi dan posisi organisasi di dalam sebuah komunitas melalui berbagai upaya kemaslahatan bersama bagi organisasi dan komunitas. csr adalah bukan hanya sekedar kegiatan amal, di mana csr mengharuskan suatu perusahaan dalam pengambilan keputusannya agar dengan sungguh-sungguh memperhitungkan akibat terhadap seluruh pemangku kepentingan (stakeholder) perusahaan, termasuk lingkungan hidup. hal ini mengharuskan perusahaan untuk membuat keseimbangan antara kepentingan beragam pemangku kepentingan eksternal dengan kepentingan pemegang saham, yang merupakan salah satu pemangku kepentingan internal. pt lion super indo berencana untuk menggelar berbagai program, di antaranya sebagai berikut: (1) program sustainable products yang ditujukan khusus untuk sentra usaha kecil dan menengah (ukm). program ini agak berbeda dengan kemitraan yang selama ini telah berjalan dengan para ukm. ada tiga syarat yang diberlakukan kepada ukm dalam mengikuti program sustainable products. pertama, prinsip yang digunakan dalam program ini. yang pertama produk harus dibuat oleh komunitas bukan individual. kedua mitra ukm ini haruslah mitra yang kuat dan kompeten dalam menjamin pasokan. ketiga harus layak secara komersial atau sesuai dengan target market di pt lion super indo. pt lion super indo memberikan tiga fasilitas kepada ukm dalam program ini, yakni akses pasar, bantuan promosi serta evaluasi kinerja produk. dalam melaksanakan program, pt lion super indo juga akan menjalin kerjasama dengan kementerian koperasi dan usaha kecil menengah (kemenkop & ukm). kerjasama dua institusi ini nantinya akan membantu kelangsungan usaha berbasis komunitas di indonesia dengan adanya penyediaan akses pasar di ritel modern pt lion super indo. (2) meraih yang terbaik dengan nurani (dampak kegiatan perusahaan) dampak utama kegiatan perusahaan tercipta dari operasi perusahaan. pendekatan super indo dalam mengelola tanggung jawab sosial didasari pemikiran bahwa tanggung jawab sosial merupakan bagian dari kegiatan usaha, dan meliputi keinginan untuk selalu belajar dari tindakan kami serta pengalaman pihak lain. super indo senantiasa menyempurnakan kinerja kami, melalui penerapan petunjuk pelaksanaan kegiatan usaha skala nasional dan internasional, termasuk standar program peringkat kinerja lingkungan (proper) dan standar operasi internasional (iso). kegiatan usaha super indo lebih dari menciptakan lapangan pekerjaan, juga mengembangkan sumber daya manusia demi kepentingan perusahaan dan masyarakat. (3) membangun sinergi kesuksesan bagi masyarakat (dampak rantai nilai) dampak yang lebih luas diciptakan melalui rantai nilai, mulai dari pemasok, pelanggan, hingga konsumen. kami memperkenalkan standar perilaku usaha bagi pemasok, yang disebut business partner code, dan menerapkan “supplier quality management programme” (sqmp) untuk mendorong pemasok dalam meningkatkan kemampuan dan kinerja mereka. super indo bermitra dengan berbagai jenis distributor independen untuk meningkatkan semangat kewirausahaan, menciptakan lapangan kerja, serta memberikan keuntungan bagi usaha-usaha lokal. memenuhi panggilan masyarakat (kontribusi sukarela) kontribusi sukarela terhadap masyarakat secara luas, yang dilakukan melalui kemitraan dengan lsm, badan pemerintah, perguruan tinggi dan masyarakat, terlihat seperti “puncak gunung es” yang merupakan dampak yang lebih besar dari kegiatan rencana pembangunan super market (agus tri basuki) 71 perusahaan yang sesungguhnya. kontribusi tersebut mencakup program-program berkesinambungan, yang dilaksanakan secara profesional di bawah yayasan lion super indo peduli. super indo mendorong para karyawan untuk ikut berbagi hati, pikiran dan pengalaman melalui kegiatan bakti sosial sukarela bagi yang membutuhkan, seperti yatim piatu, anak jalanan, penduduk (miskin) pedesaan, pengungsi dan lainnya. simpulan rencana investasi pendirian swalayan super indo di jalan parangtritis merupakan salah satu program pengembangan bisnis pt lion super indo melalui pembukaan kantor cabang. berdasarkan hasil studi kelayakan, rencana investasi ini layak untuk dilaksanakan, terutama ditinjau dari beberapa aspek kelayakan sebagai berikut: dari aspek peluang pasar, untuk mengetahui layak atau tidaknya dari segi pemasaran maka dapat dicari dengan rumus; kelayakan usaha = total bobot jumlah item yang dinilai = 75/20 = 3,75. berdasarkan hasil yang diperoleh sebesar 3,75 maka usaha pasar modern dari sisi pemasaran dikatakan layak karena masuk pada range 3,41– 4,20. dari aspek teknis, dipilihnya lokasi di jalan parangtritis karena selama ini pasar modern selalu ada di pusat kota (yogyakarta utara), sedangkan di lokasi ini belum ada pasar swalayan terlengkap. jalan parangtritis merupakan pintu masuk bagi masyarakat bantul yang mau ke yogyakarta. dari aspek sosial budaya, dampak dari keberadaan swalayan super indo berdampak positif bagi pertumbuhan ekonomi di kawasan sekitar berdirinya swalayan super indo, dan peningkatan penyerapan tenaga kerja serta peningkatan kesempatan kerja. dampak dari berdirinya pasar modern memiliki dampak negatif yaitu beberapa hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kehadiran pasar modern telah mengancam eksistensi pasar tradisional dalam hal penurunan omzet penjualan. dari aspek ekonomi dan keuangan, dana investasi yang dibutuhkan untuk pendirian swalayan super indo sebesar: rp.9.000.000.000,00, dimana arus kas bersih setiap tahun bernilai positif. dari hasil análisis selama 20 tahun didapatkaan npv positif dan cukup besar yaitu rp132.091.366,00 dan jangka waktu pengembalian investasi (payback periode) terjadi pada bulan ke-149 (12 tahun 5 bulan) saran. perlu dilakukan peluang untuk mensinergikan kedua belah pihak (antara pasar modern dengan ukm) agar tak saling mematikan. pasar modern misalnya, bisa memberikan ruang khusus berjualan bagi kalangan ukm dengan harga sewa yang rendah. mal, supermarket, hypermarket, merupakan bisnis kaum bermodal, mereka dengan mudah memperoleh keistimewaan dari perbankan. di samping itu, dalam sejarahnya perekonomian yogyakarta itu memang sebagian besar digerakkan oleh ukm, yang telah berjasa besar menghidupi masyarakat yogyakarta yang heterogen itu. sehingga perlu dicarikan model kemitraan yang cocok antara pasar modern dan ukm. dalam peraturan daerah provinsi diy nomor 10 tahun 2005 tentang perubahan atas peraturan daerah provinsi diy nomor 5 tahun 1992 tentang rencana tata ruang wilayah provinsi diy tidak dijelaskan secara detail aturan zonasi pendirian antara pasar tradisional dan pusat perbelanjaan modern. untuk menentukan aturan tersebut, perlu dilakukan kajian pemetakan (zonasi) dan dampak irisan antarpasar tradisional dengan pusat perbelanjaan dan toko modern di seluruh kawasan diy. variabel-variabel penentu harus menjadi menjadi bahan pertimbangan utama, seperti jumlah penduduk per kawasan, jaringan transportasi per kawasan, profil konsumen masing-masing badan usaha, profil penjual/tenant dan sistem penjualan, dan seterusnya. kajian atas variabelvariabel tersebut nantinya akan mampu membantu menjawab apakah tudingan bahwa pusat perbelanjaan dan toko modern itu membuat pasar tradisional terpuruk itu beralasan atau tidak. di luar itu, perlu ada kajian tersendiri jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 11, nomor 1, april 2010: 63-72 72 untuk membahas dampak keberadaan minimarket yang semakin menjamur di tingkat lingkungan dan blok permukiman warga. sebagai bagian dari konsep corporate social responsibility (csr), pt lion super indo dihimbau menggelar program sustainable products yang ditujukan khusus untuk sentra usaha kecil dan menengah (ukm). program ini agak berbeda dengan kemitraan yang selama ini telah berjalan dengan para ukm. daftar pustaka djamin, zulkarnain. 1984. perencanaan dan analisis proyek.jakarta: lembaga penerbit fakultas ekonomi universitas indonesia. gittinger, j.price. adler, hans a. 1990. evaluasi proyek. terjemahan soemarsono sr. jakarta: rineka cipta. husnan, suad. 1984. studi kelayakan proyek. yogyakarta: bpfe. ibrahim, yacob h.m. 2003. studi kelayakan bisnis. edisi revisi, cetakan kedua. jakarta: rineka cipta. rineka cipta. manurung, adler haymans, 1990. teknik peramalan bisnis dan ekonomi.jakarta: rineka cipta. sigel, sidney. 1986. statistik nonparametrik untuk ilmu-ilmu sosial. jakarta: pt. gramedia. sutojo, siswanto. 1995. studi kelayakan proyek: teori dan praktek. jakarta: lembaga ppm dan pt. pustaka binaman presindo. convert jpg to pdf online convert-jpg-to-pdf.net convert jpg to pdf online convert-jpg-to-pdf.net microsoft word 09-wijayanti jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 2, oktober 2013, hlm.174-184 indeks kepuasan masyarakat pada pelayanan kantor kecamatan di surakarta, indonesia wijayanti setyo utami1, suryanto2 1,2 fakultas ekonomi dan bisnis, universitas sebelas maret surakarta, jalan ir. sutami no. 36 a kentingan surakarta 57126, indonesia. phone: +62-271-647481 e-mail korespondensi: wijayantisetyoutami@yahoo.com naskah diterima: januari 2013; disetujui: september 2013 abstract: this study aims to observe the index of public service satisfaction and to determine the factors that affect the level of community satisfaction in surakarta district office (sdo). the use of questionnaire, interview, and direct observation have been carried out for data collection. there were 150 respondents who have experience with the service of sdo. the variables are include the satisfaction of the public, tangible, reliability, responsiveness, assurance, and certainty, as well as empathy. the ordinary least square (ols) are performed to analyze the multiple linear regression. this study finds that the community satisfaction index service is well regarded by the people of surakarta. it shows that five independent variables (i.e. tangible, reliability, responsiveness, assurance and certainty, as well as empathy) have a significant impact to satisfaction. people assess that the public service in surakarta district had been good. however, the government is expected to improve the quality of public service in the the district office since good service followed by the increase of community satisfaction. keywords: public service; satisfaction; good governance; ordinary least square jel classification: d73, r5, c20, h50 abstrak: studi ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui bagaimana layanan indeks kepuasan pelayanan masyarakat dan untuk mengetahui faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi tingkat kepuasan masyarakat di kantor kota surakarta. pengumpulan data dilakukan melalui kuesioner, wawancara dan observasi langsung dengan jumlah 150 responden. variabel yang digunakan dalam studi ini meliputi kepuasan masyarakat, nyata, reliabilitas, responsif, jaminan dan kepastian, serta empati. metode ordinary least square (ols) digunakan untuk menganalisis regresi linier berganda. hasil studi ini menunjukkan bahwa lima variabel independen, yaitu, nyata, reliabilitas, responsif, jaminan dan kepastian, serta empati berpengaruh signifikan terhadap variabel dependen adalah kepuasan. masyarakat menilai bahwa pelayanan publik di jajaran kota telah baik. namun, pemerintah diharapkan dapat meningkatkan kualitas pelayanan publik di jajaran layanan kantor karena pelayanan yang baik diikuti dengan peningkatan kepuasan masyarakat. kata kunci: pelayanan public; kepuasan; tata pemerintahan yang baik; ordinary least square klasifikasi jel: d73, r5, c20, h50 pendahuluan pemerintah merupakan suatu organisasi publik yang memiliki fungsi dan tujuan memberikan pelayanan publik kepada masyarakat. peran pemerintah dalam menjalankan tugas melayani masyarakat dapat dilihat dari etos kerja yang tinggi, kemampuan memegang etika birokrasi dalam menjalankan tugas, dan profesionalisme dalam memenuhi aspirasi masyarakat. pemerintah dapat meningkatkan kesejahteraan masyarakat yang adil dan merata indeks kepuasan masyarakat .... (wijayanti setyo utami, suryanto) 175 dengan kesiapan psikologi birokratnya yang selalu menyesuaikan diri dengan berbagai perubahan sosial yang sedang terjadi di masyarakat sebagai sasaran pelayanannya. pemerintah pusat tidak akan bisa melayani masyarakat dengan baik tanpa adanya kinerja yang baik dari pelayanan publik masyarakat di suatu daerah. adanya otonomi daerah yang memberikan kewenangan kepada pemerintah daerah dapat membantu memperlancar pelayanan kepada masyarakat di setiap daerah. semakin mengerucutnya sebuah instansi pemerintah yang melayani masyarakat akan mempermudah pengembangan potensi suatu daerah tersebut. selain itu sumbangan kinerja pemerintah daerah dalam melayani masyarakat lebih cepat dirasakan oleh masyarakat. dalam rangka meningkatkan pelayanan pada masyarakat, pemerintah perlu memonitoring kinerja dari instansi-instansi yang secara langsung melayani masyarakat dalam menjalankan tugas dan fungsinya. keluhan masyarakat secara nasional telah ditampung dan ditindaklanjuti oleh ombudsman republik indonesia yang merupakan lembaga pemerintah yang mempunyai kewenangan mengawasi penyelenggaraan pelayanan publik yang diselenggarakan oleh negara. tabel 1 menunjukkan data tentang keluhan masyarakat indonesia terhadap instansi publik. terdapat 1.026 keluhan keluhan masyarakat terhadap instansi pemerintah pada tahun 2008 dan peningkatan pada tahun 2009 menjadi 1.237 keluhan. keluhan masyarakat terhadap pelayanan pemerintahan mengalami penurunan pada tahun 2010 menjadi 1.137 keluhan. namun pada tahun 2011 terjadi lonjakan keluhan terhadap pelayanan masyarakat menjadi 1.867 keluhan. secara keseluruhan, keluhan tersebut mengalami peningkatan dari tahun 2008 hingga 2011. selain instansi pemerintah daerah, kepolisian menduduki peringkat kedua yang setiap tahunnya mengalami peningkatan keluhan masyarakat. disusul oleh instansi lembaga pengadilan yang juga mendapat sorotan tentang banyaknya keluhan masyarakat terhadap pelayanan yang diberikan. berdasarkan tabel 2, dapat diketahui bahwa terjadi maladministrasi dari tahun 2008 hingga 2011. maladministrasi tahun 2008 yakni sebesar 1.026, mengalami peningkatan pada tahun berikutnya yakni tahun 2009 menjadi sebesar 1.237, dan pada tahun 2010 kejadian maladministrasi mengalami penurunan berada pada angka 1.137. namun yang terjadi pada tahun 2011, jumlah maladministrasi mengalami lonjakan yang cukup tajam yakni mencapai angka 1.867 kejadian maladministrasi. secara spesifik, keluhan masyarakat terbesar terhadap maladministrasi yaitu mengenai penundaan berlarut dalam melayani kebutuhan masyarakat. selain penundaan berlarut, penyalahgunatabel 1. jumlah keluhan masyarakat pada beberapa instansi tahun 2008-2011 no instansi 2008 2009 2010 2011 1 pemerintah daerah 267 302 354 671 2 kepolisian 251 288 241 325 3 lembaga pengadilan 107 146 155 178 4 badan pertanahan nasional 77 120 96 165 5 instansi pemerintah (kementerian dan departemen) 91 118 90 154 6 bumn/bumd 59 73 63 106 7 lain-lain 58 55 29 98 8 kejaksaan 52 68 41 90 9 lembaga pemerintah non departemen 16 14 11 24 10 tni 24 22 16 17 11 perguruan tinggi negeri 5 3 12 11 12 komisi negara 5 8 12 14 13 perbankan 9 15 15 11 14 dpr 4 3 2 2 15 badan pemeriksa keuangan 1 2 0 1 jumlah 1.026 1.237 1.137 1.867 sumber: data sekunder yang diolah berdasarkan laporan tahunan ombudsman republik indonesia tahun 20082011 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 2, oktober 2013: 174-184 176 an wewenang yang dilakukan pelaku pelayanan publik masyarakat menjadi aspek yang harus segera diperbaiki oleh instansi pemerintah. pada urutan selanjutnya masyarakat mengeluh terhadap berpihaknya instansi pemerintah dalam memberikan pelayanan publik. di setiap pemerintah daerah, terdapat kecamatan yang memiliki pengaruh besar dalam pelayanan secara langsung kepada masyarakat. kecamatan bertanggung jawab dalam lingkup suatu daerah dalam penanganan permasalahan masyarakat. pada dasarnya, kantor kecamatan memiliki tugas pokok yakni menyelenggarakan sebagian kewenangan pemerintahan yang dilimpahkan dari walikota untuk menangani sebagian urusan otonomi daerah. fungsi kecamatan antara lain, penyelenggaraan kesekretariatan kelurahan, mengkoordinasi kegiatan pemberdayaan masyarakat, pelaksanaan perencanaan, pengendalian, evaluasi dan pelaporan, mengkoordinasi upaya penyelenggaraan ketenteraman dan ketertiban umum, mengkoordinasi penerapan dan penegakan peraturan perundang-undangan, mengkoordinasi pemeliharaan prasarana dan fasilitas umum, mengkoordinasi penyelenggaraan kegiatan pemerintah di tingkat kecamatan, membina penyelenggaraan pemerintah kelurahan, melaksanakan pelayanan masyarakat yang menjadi ruang lingkup tugasnya dan atau yang belum dapat dilaksanakan di pemerintahan kelurahan, serta pembinaan jabatan fungsional. berdasarkan tabel 3, terdapat 5 kecamatan di kota surakarta yang menyelenggarakan pelayanan terhadap masyarakat. kelima kantor kecamatan di kota surakarta mempermudah pemerintah kota surakarta dalam mengelola daerah-daerah di kota surakarta serta mempermudah masyarakat dalam penyelesaian kewajiban tanpa harus langsung berhubungan dengan pemerintah kota surakarta. lima kecamatan tersebut mengelola 51 kelurahan. pelayanan yang diberikan berupa pelayanan administrasi kependudukan yaitu pelayanan ktp, pelayanan kartu keluarga (kk), pelayanan surat keterangan tinggal sementara (skts). kecamatan juga melayani pelayanan administrasi perizinan di antaranya, pelayanan izin tabel 3. daftar kecamatan kota surakarta no kecamatan alamat nomor telpon kelurahan 1 laweyan jl. dr. rajiman nomor 352 surakarta (0271) 714568 11 2 serengan jl. veteran nomor 271 surakarta (0271) 645414 7 3 pasar kliwon jl. kapten mulyadi nomor 111surakarta (0271) 656842 9 4 jebres jl. ki hajar dewantara nomor 27 surakarta (0271) 656961 11 5 banjarsari jl. letjend s. parman nomor 133 surakarta (0271) 656979 13 jumlah kelurahan 51 sumber: badan pusat statistik kota surakarta tabel 2. jumlah laporan masyarakat berdasarkan substansi maladministrasi tahun 2008-2011 no substansi laporan 2008 2009 2010 2011 1 penundaan berlarut 259 593 572 784 2 penyalahgunaan wewenang 245 264 193 328 3 berpihak 78 106 125 127 4 tidak memberikan pelayanan 88 41 30 151 5 penyimpangan prosedur 66 86 87 162 6 permintaan uang, barang & jasa 77 56 45 139 7 tidak kompeten 42 70 51 93 8 tidak patut 35 21 34 53 9 diskriminasi 5 0 0 27 10 konflik kepentingan 11 0 0 3 11 lain-lain 120 0 0 0 jumlah 1.026 1.237 1.137 1.867 sumber: data sekunder yang diolah berdasarkan laporan tahunan ombudsman republik indonesia tahun 2008-2011 indeks kepuasan masyarakat .... (wijayanti setyo utami, suryanto) 177 gangguan (ho), izin mendirikan bangun bangunan (imbb), izin mendirikan bangunan (imb) merupakan tugas dari instansi pemerintah yakni kecamatan. tabel 4 menunjukkan jumlah penduduk di setiap kecamatan kota surakarta. kecamatan banjarsari memiliki jumlah penduduk tertinggi yaitu 173.145 jiwa. jumlah penduduk tertinggi kedua adalah kecamatan jebres dengan 146.362 jiwa sedangkan kecamatan dengan jumlah penduduk paling sedikit yaitu kecamatan serengan sebesar 60.752 jiwa. adanya pendataan penduduk di setiap kecamatan memudahkan penyelenggara layanan di kantor kecamatan untuk mengelola dan memberi layanan pada warganya. studi ini bertujuan: (1) untuk mengetahui indeks kepuasan masyarakat pada pelayanan di kantor kecamatan kota surakarta dan (2) untuk mengetahui faktor-faktor yang berpengaruh terhadap tingkat kepuasan masyarakat di kantor kecamatan kota surakarta. untuk mengetahui tingkat kepuasan masyarakat terhadap pelayanan publik di instansi pemerintah daerah adalah mengobservasi terhadap indeks kepuasan masyarakat (ikm). ikm berpedoman pada keputusan menteri negara pendayagunaan aparatur negara nomor kep/ 25/m.pan/ 2/2004 tentang pedoman umum penyusunan indeks kepuasan masyarakat. selama ini pelayanan yang diberikan oleh pegawai kecamatan di surakarta belum maksimal sehingga terdapat keluhan dari masyarakat. keluhan masyarakat tersebut pada akhirnya menjadi pemicu pihak kantor kecamatan untuk meningkatkan kinerjanya menjadi lebih baik. pelayanan yang cepat, akurat serta keramahan dari petugas kecamatan selalu diharapkan masyarakat di kantor kecamatan. hal yang sering dikeluhkan masyarakat yakni lama waktu masyarakat menunggu dalam melengkapi dokumen yang dibutuhkan. secara umum perbaikan serta peningkatan mutu pelayanan instansi-instansi pemerintah terhadap masyarakat diharapkan mampu mengurangi tingginya jumlah keluhan masyarakat, baik dalam skala regional maupun nasional. hal ini sangat perlu dilakukan untuk terus meningkatkan kepuasan masyarakat sebagai konsumen pelayanan publik. pelayanan yang adil merupakan harapan dari setiap masyarakat yang menjadi tanggung jawab dari instansiinstansi pemerintah yang berkewajiban memberikan pelayanan publik. permasalahan yang lainnya juga masih terjadi sehingga perlu adanya kesadaran dari setiap individu pemberi layanan yang terjun langsung dalam memberikan pelayanan terhadap masyarakat. peningkatan kinerja instansi pemerintah akan mempermudah masyarakat dalam menjalankan kewajibannya sebagai warga negara yang baik. metode penelitian studi ini menggunakan sampel berjumlah 150 masyarakat yang merupakan penduduk kota surakarta berusia tujuh belas tahun ke atas yang sedang atau pernah merasakan pelayanan di kantor kecamatan kota surakarta. teknik pengambilan sampel yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah teknik sampling peluang (probability sampling) dengan jenis convenience sampling1. jenis sampling ini secara teknis memilih sampel berdasarkan kemudahan (sanusi, 2012: 94). 1 untuk pembahasan tentang sampling dan besarnya sampel, lihat sanusi (2012: 88-89) dan gay dan diehl (1996: 100101) tabel 4. daftar penduduk kota surakarta berdasarkan kecamatan tahun 2012 no kecamatan jumlah penduduk 1 laweyan 108.596 2 serengan 60.752 3 pasar kliwon 90.037 4 jebres 146.362 5 banjarsari 173.145 jumlah penduduk surakarta 578.892 sumber: badan pusat statistik kota surakarta jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 2, oktober 2013: 174-184 178 lokasi studi ini dilakukan di berbagai kantor kecamatan kecamatan kota surakarta. lokasi studi dipilih secara sengaja (purposive) yang diambil berdasarkan pertimbangan-pertimbangan tertentu untuk kemudahan jangkauan dan perolehan data primer dari lokasi-lokasi tersebut. berdasarkan keputusan menteri pan nomor: 63/kep/m.pan/7/2003 nilai indeks kepuasan masyarakat dapat dihitung dengan menggunakan nilai rata-rata tertimbang untuk setiap unsur pelayanan. penghitungan indeks kepuasan masyarakat terhadap 14 variabel independen memiliki penimbangan yang sama dengan rumus sebagai berikut:     1     0, 071 14 bobot nilai rata rata tertimbang jumlah bobot jumlah unsur     1) untuk memperoleh nilai ikm unit pelayanan digunakan pendekatan nilai rata-rata tertimbang dengan rumus sebagai berikut:       ikm total dari nilai persepsi per unsur x nilai penimbangan total unsur yang terisi        2) untuk memudahkan interpretasi terhadap penilaian ikm yaitu antara 25-100 maka hasil penilaian tersebut di atas dikonversikan dengan nilai dasar 25, dengan rumus sebagai berikut: ikm unit pelayanan x 25 3) dengan adanya unit pelayanan mempunyai karakteristik yang berbeda-beda, maka setiap unit pelayanan dimungkinkan untuk menambah unsur yang relevan dan memberikan bobot yang berbeda terhadap 14 unsur yang dominan dalam unit pelayanan, dengan catatan jumlah bobot seluruh unsur tetap 1. studi ini menggunakan metode pengukuran regresi linear berganda atau ordinary least square (ols)2. studi ini didasarkan pula oleh studi terdahulu yang dilakukan yuliarmi dan riyasa (2007) pada pelayanan pelanggan pdam denpasar. alat analisis yang digunakan dalam menghitung tingkat kepuasan masyarakat pada pelayanan kantor kecamatan kota surakarta adalah skor rata-rata dan standar deviasi dengan rumus sebagai berikut:3 1   n ii x skor rata rata x n        4) di mana: x adalah skor rata-rata, xi adalah skor tiap-tiap sampel, dan n adalah jumlah sampel      21( ) 1 n ii x x standar deviasi s n 5) di mana: s adalah standar deviasi, n adalah jumlah sampel, x adalah nilai skor rata-rata, dan xi adalah skor tiap-tiap sampel. untuk menentukan tingkat kepuasan masyarakat pada pelayanan di kantor kecamatan kota surakarta akan studi ini menggunakan indikator yang telah dikategorikan oleh yuliarmi dan riyasa (2007) sebagai berikut: 2 untuk penjelasan mengenai metode ols, lihat gujarati, (2010: 20). 3 rumus-rumus dikutip dari kuncoro (2003; 173, 177) tabel 5. nilai persepsi, interval ikm, interval konversi ikm, mutu pelayanan, dan kinerja unit pelayanan nilai persepsi nilai interval ikm nilai interval konversi ikm mutu pelayanan kinerja unit pelayanan 1 1,00 1,75 25,00 43,75 d tidak baik 2 1,76 2, 50 43,76 62,50 c kurang baik 3 2,51 3,25 62,51 81,25 b baik 4 3,26 4,00 81,26 100,00 a sangat baik sumber: kepmen pan no.25/2004 indeks kepuasan masyarakat .... (wijayanti setyo utami, suryanto) 179 i ≥ x + sd = dikategorikan tinggi x ≤ i < x + sd = dikategorikan sedang x sd ≤ i < x = dikategorikan rendah i < x sd = dikategorikan sangat rendah di mana: i adalah nilai indikator, x adalah ratarata, sd adalah standar deviasi. berdasarkan studi terdahulu yang dilakukan oleh yuliarmi dan riyasa (2007), penggunaan skala likert membuat variabel yang akan diukur dapat dijabarkan menjadi indikator-indikator variabel yang kemudian akan dijadikan titik tolak untuk penyusunan item-item instrumen berupa pertanyaan maupun pernyataan. jawaban untuk setiap item instrumen dengan menggunakan skala likert dengan rentang nilai satu yang menunjukkan sangat tidak setuju dan nilai lima untuk menunjukkan sangat setuju. selain itu analisis regresi terhadap lima dimensi kualitas layanan jasa akan menentukan seberapa baik dan tidaknya sebuah pelayanan. analisis regresi dilakukan untuk mengetahui hubungan dari faktor-faktor dimensi kualitas layanan jasa terhadap kepuasan masyarakat. berikut model regresi linear berganda yang dinyatakan dalam persamaan: yi = β0 + β1x1i + β2x2i + β3x3i + β4x4i + β5x5i + μi 6) di mana: y adalah kepuasan masyarakat, x1 adalah berwujud (tangible), x2 adalah keandalan (reliability), x3 adalah ketanggapan (responsiveness), x4 adalah jaminan dan kepastian (assurance), x5 adalah empati (empathy), β1, β2, β3, ...., β5 adalah koefisien regresi, μi adalah variabel pengganggu. hasil dan pembahasan indeks kepuasan masyarakat (ikm) analisis ini dilakukan dengan menggunakan penilaian indeks kepuasan masyarakat, di mana dari hasil perhitungan didapat kriteria nilai indeks kepuasan masyarakat (ikm). sementara dari hasil analisis statistik, diperoleh mean statistik jawaban responden mengenai kinerja pelayanan di kantor kecamatan kota surakarta sebagai berikut: nilai indeks unit pelayanan: (2,88 x 0,071) + (2,91 x 0,071) + (2,88 x 0,071) + (2,63 x 0,071) + (2,86 x 0,071) + (2,92 x 0,071) + (2,58 x 0,071) + (2,99 x 0,071) + (2,92 x 0,071) + (2,96 x 0,071) + (2,62 x 0,071) + (2,53 x 0,071) + (2,91 x 0,071) + (2,95 x 0,071) = 2,80734 dengan demikian nilai indeks unit pelayanan hasilnya dapat disimpulkan sebagai berikut: 1) nilai ikm setelah dikonversi = nilai indeks x nilai dasar = 2,80734 x 25 = 70,1835. 2) mutu pelayanan pada kantor kecamatan kota surakarta setelah dikonversi berada pada interval nilai 62,51–81,25 sehingga dapat disimtabel 6. nilai rata-rata unsur pelayanan no unsur pelayanan nilai unsur pelayanan 1. prosedur pelayanan 2,88 2. persyaratan pelayanan 2,91 3. kejelasan petugas 2,88 4. kedisiplinan petugas 2,63 5. tanggung jawab petugas 2,86 6. kemampuan petugas 2,92 7. kecepatan petugas 2,58 8. keadilan petugas 2,99 9. kesopanan petugas 2,92 10. kewajaran biaya 2,96 11. kepastian biaya 2,62 12. kepastian jadwal 2,53 13. kenyamanan lingkungan 2,91 14. keamanan pelayanan 2,95 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 2, oktober 2013: 174-184 180 pulkan nilai mutu pelayanan b. 3) kinerja unit pelayanan dinilai baik oleh masyarakat. berdasarkan hasil perhitungan indeks kepuasan masyarakat dapat disimpulkan bahwa nilai mutu pelayanan b yang dinilai baik oleh masyarakat. hasil ini menunjukkan bahwa masyarakat kota surakarta merasa puas terhadap pelayanan di kantor kecamatan kota surakarta. hal ini memang telah sesuai dengan hipotesis yang berdasarkan pada studi terdahulu yang dilakukan oleh agustina (2013) dan fardhani (2010). faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi kepuasan masyarakat pada pelayanan kantor kecamatan surakarta analisis deskriptif dimaksudkan untuk mengetahui karakteristik dari reponden. deskripsi tentang karakteristik para responden diperoleh dari isian kuisioner pada bagian identitas diri yang diisi oleh para responden. isian deskripsi mengenai data diri tersebut terdiri dari alamat responden berdasar pada kecamatan, jenis kelamin, pekerjaan, usia, pendidikan terakhir, status pernikahan, dan pengeluaran perbulan yang dijabarkan pada tabel 7. berdasarkan tabel 7, diketahui bahwa responden terdiri dari perwakilan penduduk di 5 kecamatan kota surakarta. masing-masing kecamatan terdiri dari 30 responden. responden dengan jenis kelamin perempuan lebih banyak yakni sebanyak 92 responden, sedangkan responden laki-laki sebanyak 58 responden. dilihat dari karakteristik pekerjaan yang paling banyak adalah reponden yang bekerja di sektor swasta yakni sebanyak 47 responden sedangkan yang paling sedikit adalah responden yang tabel 7. deskriptif responden karakteristik frekuensi persentase alamat berdasar kecamatan laweyan 30 20% serengan 30 20% pasar kliwon 30 20% jebres 30 20% banjarsari 30 20% jenis kelamin laki-laki 58 38,7% perempuan 92 61,3% pekerjaan pelajar/ mahasiswa 40 26,7% pns 7 4,7% swasta 47 31,3% wiraswasta 27 18,0% lain-lain 29 19,3% usia ≤20 tahun 20 13,3% 21-30 tahun 67 44,7% 31-40 tahun 11 7,3% 41-50 tahun 27 18,0% >50 tahun 25 16,7% pendidikan terakhir ≤sma 108 72,0% diploma 11 7,3% sarjana 28 18,3% ≥pasca sarjana 3 2,0% status pernikahan menikah 86 57,3% belum menikah 64 42,7% pengeluaran perbulan <rp 1.500.000,00 75 50,0% rp 1.500.000,00-rp 2.500.000,00 47 31,3% >rp 2.500.000,00-rp 3.500.000,00 13 8,7% >rp 3.500.000,00 15 10,0% indeks kepuasan masyarakat .... (wijayanti setyo utami, suryanto) 181 memiliki pekerjaan sebagai pns. usia produktif yakni antara 21-30 tahun merupakan responden yang banyak melakukan pelayanan di kantor kecamatan untuk mengurus kelengkapan surat baik surat menikah maupun pembaharuan kartu tanda penduduk, sedangkan dilihat dari pendidikan terakhir yang telah ditempuh para responden maka pendidikan sma sederajat yang paling banyak menjadi karakteristik para responden. status pernikahan para responden sebesar 86 responden yang telah menikah dan 64 responden belum menikah. dominasi pengeluaran responden setiap bulannya yakni sebesar < rp1.500.000,00 sebanyak 75 responden. jenis pelayanan yang paling sering dilakukan oleh penduduk kota surakarta adalah pembuatan atau perpanjangan kartu tanda penduduk (ktp). selain pelayanan ktp yang sering dilakukan oleh penduduk kota surakarta adalah pelayanan kartu keluarga (kk). bermacam-macam pelayanan yang diberikan oleh kantor kecamatan diharapkan mampu mendekatkan masyarakat pada jajaran pemerintahan sehingga potensi suatu daerah semakin tampak, terlihat dalam tabel 8. tabel 8. jenis pelayanan yang sedang atau pernah dilakukan di kantor kecamatan no jenis pelayanan jumlah responden 1 ktp 147 2 kk 76 3 surat nikah 14 4 imb 2 5 ho 1 6 iup 3 7 lain-lain 6 nilai mean dan standar deviasi dari masing-masing variabel pada tabel 9, menunjukkan bahwa rata-rata kepuasan masyarakat terhadap pelayanan di kantor kecamatan kota surakarta sebesar 2,50. penilaian rata-rata variabel berwujud yang dilihat dari fasilitas, keadaan fisik gedung, kenyamanan, kebersihan, kerapihan ruang, kondisi serta kecukupan peralatan dan perlengkapan kantor kecamatan sebesar 3,91. tabel 9. deskriptif statistik no variabel mean standar deviasi n 1. kepuasan 2,5067 0,85724 150 2. berwujud 3,9114 0,57254 150 3. keandalan 3,5779 0,63328 150 4. ketanggapan 3,4489 0,71333 150 5. jaminan 3,7353 0,62231 150 6. empati 3,4778 0,73942 150 sumber: data primer yang diolah, 2014 variabel keandalan yang diwakili dengan keberadaan petugas kecamatan, ketepatan waktu penyelesaian yang dilakukan oleh petugas kecamatan, serta keadilan petugas kecamatan tanpa membedakan pelanggan satu dengan yang lain memiliki nilai mean sebesar 3,57. petugas kecamatan cepat tanggap terhadap keluhan masyarakat, tindakan segera dalam menangani keluhan masyarakat serta kemampuan petugas dalam memberikan informasi yang jelas dan mudah dimengerti masyarakat diwakili dengan variabel ketanggapan memiliki nilai 3,44. variabel jaminan yang menjelaskan tentang keramahan dan kesopanan petugas, sikap petugas kecamatan yang memberikan pelayanan secara tuntas dan menyeluruh, serta jaminan keamanan dalam memberikan pelayanan memiliki nilai rata-rata sebesar 3,73. empati yang diwakili dengan sikap dari petugas pelayanan yang penuh perhatian, mendengarkan segala keluhan masyarakat secara seksama, serta kemudahan yang diberikan oleh petugas kecamatan kepada masyarakat saat menyampaikan keluhannya memiliki nilai sebesar 3,47. faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi kepuasan masyarakat pada pelayanan kantor kecamatan surakarta model faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi kepuasan masyarakat pada pelayanan di kantor kecamatan kota surakarta ini dianalisis dengan menggunakan regresi linear berganda dengan menggunakan ordinary least square (ols). dengan menggunakan spss, maka didapat nilai koefisien determinasi (r2) sebesar 0,840. hal ini berarti sekitar 84% variasi pada variabel kepuasan yang dijelaskan oleh variabel berwujud, keandalan, ketanggapan, jaminan, dan empati. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 2, oktober 2013: 174-184 182 nilai f pada model sebesar 151,711, nilai ini lebih besar dibandingkan nilai interval kepercayaan pada tingkat 5% yang digunakan yaitu sebesar 2,26. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa variabel berwujud, keandalan, ketanggapan, jaminan dan empati berpengaruh signifikan terhadap kepuasan masyarakat secara simultan. faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi kepuasan masyarakat pada pelayanan di kantor kecamatan kota surakarta disajikan pada tabel 13. tabel 13. koefisien di kantor kecamatan kota surakarta variabel koefisien t sig. (constant) -3,348 -14,167 0,000 berwujud 0,300 5,414 0,000 keandalan 0,328 5,287 0,000 ketanggapan 0,328 6,863 0,000 jaminan 0,348 5,681 0,000 empati 0,310 6,003 0,000 sumber: data primer yang diolah, 2014 r-squared 0,840 ; adjusted r-squared 0,835 ; fstatistic 151,711 maka dapat dituliskan model persamaan regresi berikut ini: yi = β0 + β 1x1i + β 2x2i + β 3x3i + β 4x4i + β 5x5i + μi 1) kepuasan = -3,348 + 0,300berwujud + (5,414)* 0,328keandalan + 0,328ketanggapan + (5,287)* (6,863)* 0,348jaminan + 0,310empati (5,681)* (6,003)* r squared = 0,840; adjusted r squared = 0,835 f stat = 151,711; n = 150 (*signifikansi pada level 5%) variabel yang signifikan terhadap faktorfaktor yang mempengaruhi kepuasan masyarakat pada pelayanan kantor kecamatan surakarta 1) berwujud. berdasarkan regresi linear berganda dengan menggunakan ordinary least square (ols) diperoleh nilai sig pada variabel berwujud sebesar 0,00 nilai ini menunjukkan hasil yang lebih kecil dibandingkan tingkat signifikansi yang digunakan yaitu sebesar 5% (0,05) maka dapat disimpulkan bahwa variabel berwujud yang meliputi fasilitas, keadaan fisik gedung, kenyamanan, kebersihan, kerapihan ruang, kondisi serta kecukupan peralatan dan perlengkapan kantor kecamatan berpengaruh nyata terhadap kepuasan pelayanan di kantor kecamatan kota surakarta. hasil ini sesuai dengan hipotesis yang mendasari berdasar studi terdahulu yang dilakukan oleh yuliarmi dan riyasa di denpasar pada tahun 2007 serta studi yang dilakukan oleh susila di kantor kelurahan jagalan pada tahun 2010. 2) keandalan. berdasarkan regresi linear berganda dengan menggunakan ordinary least square (ols) diperoleh nilai sig pada variabel keandalan sebesar 0,00 nilai ini menunjukkan hasil yang lebih kecil dibandingkan tingkat signifikansi yang digunakan yaitu sebesar 5% (0,05) maka dapat disimpulkan bahwa variabel keandalan yang meliputi keberadaan petugas kecamatan, ketepatan waktu penyelesaian yang dilakukan oleh petugas kecamatan, serta keadilan petugas kecamatan tanpa membedakan pelanggan satu dengan yang lain berpengaruh nyata terhadap kepuasan pelayanan di kantor kecamatan kota surakarta. hasil ini sesuai dengan hipotesis yang mendasari berdasar studi terdahulu yang dilakukan oleh yuliarmi dan riyasa di denpasar pada tahun 2007. 3) ketanggapan. berdasarkan regresi linear berganda dengan menggunakan ordinary least square (ols) diperoleh nilai sig pada variabel ketanggapan sebesar 0,00 nilai ini menunjukkan hasil yang lebih kecil dibandingkan tingkat signifikansi yang digunakan yaitu sebesar 5% (0,05) maka dapat disimpulkan bahwa variabel ketanggapan yang meliputi petugas kecamatan yang cepat tanggap terhadap keluhan masyarakat, tindakan segera dalam menangani keluhan masyarakat serta kemampuan petugas dalam memberikan informasi yang jelas dan mudah dimengerti masyarakat berpengaruh nyata terhadap kepuasan pelayanan di kantor keca indeks kepuasan masyarakat .... (wijayanti setyo utami, suryanto) 183 matan kota surakarta. hasil ini sesuai dengan hipotesis yang mendasari berdasar studi terdahulu yang dilakukan oleh yuliarmi dan riyasa di denpasar pada tahun 2007 serta studi yang dilakukan oleh susila di kantor kelurahan jagalan pada tahun 2010. 4) jaminan. berdasarkan regresi linear berganda dengan menggunakan ordinary least square (ols) diperoleh nilai sig pada variabel jaminan sebesar 0,00 nilai ini menunjukkan hasil yang lebih kecil dibandingkan tingkat signifikansi yang digunakan yaitu sebesar 5% (0,05) maka dapat disimpulkan bahwa variabel jaminan yang meliputi keramahan dan kesopanan petugas, sikap petugas kecamatan yang memberikan pelayanan secara tuntas dan menyeluruh, serta jaminan keamanan dalam memberikan pelayanan kepada masyarakat berpengaruh nyata terhadap kepuasan pelayanan di kantor kecamatan kota surakarta. hasil ini sesuai dengan hipotesis yang mendasari berdasar studi terdahulu yang dilakukan oleh yuliarmi dan riyasa di denpasar pada tahun 2007 serta studi yang dilakukan oleh susila di kantor kelurahan jagalan pada tahun 2010. 5) empati. berdasarkan regresi linear berganda dengan menggunakan ordinary least square (ols) diperoleh nilai sig pada variabel empati sebesar 0,00 nilai ini menunjukkan hasil yang lebih kecil dibandingkan tingkat signifikansi yang digunakan yaitu sebesar 5 persen (0,05) maka dapat disimpulkan bahwa variabel empati yang meliputi sikap dari petugas pelayanan yang penuh perhatian, mendengarkan segala keluhan masyarakat secara seksama, serta kemudahan yang diberikan oleh petugas kecamatan kepada masyarakat saat menyampaikan keluhannya berpengaruh nyata terhadap kepuasan pelayanan di kantor kecamatan kota surakarta. hasil ini sesuai dengan hipotesis yang mendasari berdasar studi terdahulu yang dilakukan oleh yuliarmi dan riyasa di denpasar pada tahun 2007 serta studi yang dilakukan oleh susila di kantor kelurahan jagalan pada tahun 2010. menurut basuki (2011) kepuasan masyarakat dapat ditentukan oleh mutu pelayanan petugas saat menghadapi keluhan masyarakat. simpulan berdasarkan hasil studi maka dapat disimpulkan: pertama, nilai indeks kepuasan masyarakat (ikm) pada pelayanan di 5 kantor kecamatan kota surakarta menunjukkan hasil sebesar 70,1835. dalam hal ini untuk pelayanan pada kantor kecamatan kota surakarta setelah dikonversi berada pada interval nilai 62,51– 81,25 yang dapat disimpulkan nilai mutu pelayanan. hasil ini memiliki arti bahwa masyarakat kota surakarta yang pernah atau sedang mengalami pelayanan di kantor kecamatan kota surakarta menganggap pelayanan yang diberikan oleh kantor kecamatan kota surakarta baik. kedua, berdasarkan hasil studi mengenai kepuasan masyarakat pada pelayanan di kantor kecamatan kota surakarta menunjukkan bahwa kelima variabel independen berpengaruh nyata terhadap kepuasan masyarakat di kantor kecamatan kota surakarta, yaitu: (a) variabel berwujud meliputi, gedung, peralatan, perlengkapan, serta kebersihan di kantor kecamatan kota surakarta. (b) variabel keandalan meliputi, kedisiplinan petugas, keadilan dalam memberikan pelayanan serta ketepatan waktu dalam memberikan pelayanan di kantor kecamatan kota surakarta. (c) variabel ketanggapan meliputi, petugas pelayanan yang tanggap terhadap permasalahan dan keluhan masyarakat serta mampu memberikan informasi yang mudah dipahami oleh masyarakat di kantor kecamatan kota surakarta. (d) variabel jaminan dan kepastian meliputi, sikap petugas dalam memberikan pelayanan, keramahan, kesopanan serta jaminan keamanan di kantor kecamatan kota surakarta. (e) variabel empati meliputi, kemudahan masyarakat saat menyampaikan keluhan serta perhatian petugas kecamatan di kantor kecamatan kota surakarta. daftar pustaka agustina, suci. (2004). indeks kepuasan masyarakat terhadap unit pelayanan instansi pemerintah (studi implementasi keputusan menteri pendayagunaan aparatur negara nomor kep/25/m.pan/2/2004 di kantor kecamatan tulungagung ka jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 2, oktober 2013: 174-184 184 bupaten tulungagung). jurnal indeks kepuasan masyarakat terhadap unit pelayanan instansi pemerintah. http:// hukum. ub.ac.id/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/ jurnal-suci-agustina-0910110081.pdf, diakses: tanggal 28 november 2012 astria, lisna, henry rani sitepu, dan open darnius. (2013). analisis tingkat kepuasan masyarakat terhadap proses pelayanan pembuatan sim (surat izin mengemudi) di satlantas polres tapanuli selatan. jurnal saintia matematika. vol. 1, no. 5 (2013): 435-444. basuki, a.t. (2011). survei indeks kepuasan konsumen atas pelayanan rumah sakit umum daerah. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 12 no.1 april 2011: 3850. fardhani, harentama dan mudji rahardjo. (2008). analisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi kepuasan masyarakat pada pelayanan badan pelayanan perijinan terpadu kota semarang. http://eprints. undip.ac.id /26402/2/jurnal_format.pdf, diakses: tanggal 28 november 2012 gujarati, damodar n dan porter, dawn c. (2010). dasar-dasar ekonometrika buku 2 edisi 5. terjemahan raden carlos mangunsong. jakarta: salemba empat. keputusan menteri pendayagunaan aparatur negara nomor: 63/kep/m.pan/2003 tentang pedoman umum penyelenggaraan pelayanan publik. keputusan menteri pendayagunaan aparatur negara nomor: kep/25/m.pan/2/2004 tentang pedoman umum penyusunan indeks kepuasan masyarakat unit pelayanan instansi pemerintah. kotler, philip. (2000). manajemen pemasaran di indonesia buku 1. jakarta: salemba empat. kuncoro, mudrajad. (2006). strategi (bagaimana meraih keunggulan kompetitif). jakarta: erlangga. lovelock, christopher, jochen wirtz, dan jacky mussry. (2010). pemasaran jasa (manusia, teknologi, strategi) perspektif indonesia jilid 2 edisi 7. jakarta: erlangga. lupiyoadi, rambat. (2013). manajemen pemasaran jasa edisi 3. jakarta: salemba empat. ombudsman.go.id diakses: tanggal 30 november 2012. peraturan presiden republik indonesia nomor 81 tahun 2010 tentang grand design reformasi birokrasi 2010-2025. sanusi, anwar. (2012). metode penelitian bisnis. jakarta: salemba empat. susila, linda nur. (2010). analisis pengaruh kualitas pelayanan kantor kelurahan terhadap kepuasan masyarakat kelurahan jagalan kecamatan jebres kota surakarta. journal of rural and development. volume 1 no. 1 februari 2010. undang-undang republik indonesia nomor 25 tahun 2009 tentang pelayanan publik. yuliarni, ni nyoman dan putu riyasa. (2007). analisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi kepuasan pelanggan terhadap pelayanan pdam kota denpasar. buletin studi ekonomi. issn 1410-4628 volume 12 nomor 1 tahun 2007. yustika, ahmad erani. (2006). ekonomi kelembagaan definisi, teori & strategi. jawa timur: bayumedia publishing. image (478).jpg image (479).jpg image (480).jpg image (481).jpg image (482).jpg image (483).jpg image (484).jpg image (485).jpg image (486).jpg image (487).jpg image (488).jpg image (489).jpg image (490).jpg image (491).jpg image (492).jpg image (493).jpg image (494).jpg image (495).jpg image (496).jpg image (497).jpg image (498).jpg image (499).jpg microsoft word 06-aziz _142-153_.doc jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 8, nomor 2, oktober 2007: 142-153 analisis sektor-sektor ekonomi dengan potensi unggulan di kabupaten/kota se-provinsi jawa tengah tahun 2000 – 2004 abdul aziz ahmad fakultas ekonomi universitas jenderal soedirman purwokerto jalan hr boenyamin purwokerto 53115 e-mail: abdulazizahmad@yahoo.com abstract potential economic resources in the central java province provide interesting features for analysis, especially agricultural sectors, where many regencies have relied on since 2000, but declined in 2004. based on the state location quotient (lq), this study finds the change in some leading economic sectors from 2002 to 2004 in those regencies and cities as well. the tendency of the change has an implication in the growth of the role in every single sector, relatively among the regions (regencies and cities). on the other hand, the dynamic location quotient (δlq) shows lq variation across regions and some coincidence in decrease. if the decrease continuously occurs in important sectors of the regions with lower and negative lq growth, there will also be adverse economic implications. in contrast, regions with higher and positive lq growth will improve their potential economic resources. keywords: static and dinamic location quotient, regional, business location pendahuluan sejak kebijakan otonomi yang lebih luas mengemuka, kewenangan daerah untuk melaksanakan program-program pembangunan di daerah semakin luas. hal ini berarti datangnya era otonomi daerah memerlukan perhatian dari pemerintah daerah untuk mengembangkan perencanaan daerah yang dapat berperan sebagai dasar kebijakan perencanaan pembangunan regional. oleh karena itu para perencana daerah diharapkan dapat menyusun rencana-rencana pembangunan yang sesuai dengan potensi dan kebutuhan lokal. setiap daerah tentu mempunyai potensi ekonomi yang tidak sama dengan daerah yang lain. dengan kata lain masing-masing daerah cenderung mempunyai sektor-sektor perekonomian unggulan yang berbeda dengan daerah yang lain. oleh karena itu model perencanaan ekonomi regional yang praktis dan mudah untuk dilaksanakan bagi daerah akan membantu untuk mendorong kemandirian dan pengoptimalan potensi yang dimiliki oleh daerah dalam melaksanakan pembangunan di wilayahnya. penelitian ini mengkaji potensi ekonomi kabupaten/kota di wilayah jawa tengah (jateng) dengan menentukan sektor-sektor basis (unggulan). hal ini penting karena menurut kuncoro (2004) penentuan basis ekonomi merupakan salah satu tugas yang perlu dilakukan pada tahap pertama dalam proses perencanaan pembangunan ekonomi daerah. analisis sektor-sektor ekonomi (abdul aziz ahmad) 143 di provinsi jawa tengah sampai dengan tahun 2004, pangsa sektor pertanian, industri pengolahan dan perdagangan, restoran dan hotel masih mendominasi besaran pdrb jateng. hal ini terlihat dari gambar 1. pada tahun 2001, ke tiga sektor ekonomi tersebut memberikan kontribusi bagi pdrb lebih dari 76,5 triliun rupiah, atau sebesar 75,6 persen dari pdrb total. ukuran share ini belum termasuk nilai pdrb dari sektor pengolahan minyak dan gas (migas). jika migas diikut sertakan dalam komposisi pendukung industri pengolahan, ketiga sekor ekonomi utama memberikan kontribusi sebesar 82,6 triliun rupiah dan share terhadap pdrb sebesar 77,0 persen. di luar perhitungan pengolahan migas, 6 sektor ekonomi lain hanya menyumbang sekitar 24,4 persen dari pdrb total. pada tahun 2004, meskipun ketiga sektor utama tersebut meningkat nilainya (menjadi 87,3 triliun rupiah), tetapi pangsanya terhadap pdrb menurun menjadi 74,0 persen (tanpa migas). pada periode 2000-2004, ketiga sektor ekonomi utama jateng menurun kontribusinya bagi pdrb sekitar 1,56 persen. subsektor industri pengolahan minyak dan gas merupakan sektor ekonomi spesifik. subsektor ini memberikan kontribusi yang besar, sekitar 22,23 persen dari pdrb sektor indusri pengolahan, atau berkisar 7,24 persen dari total pdrb jateng tahun 2004. dikatakan spesifik, karena aktivitas subsektor ini hanya terdapat di kabupaten cilacap. daerah kabupaten/kota lain di jateng tidak memperoleh kontribusi secara langsung dalam perhitungan pdrbnya. jika dibandingkan pangsa pdrb per sektor ekonomi di jateng, pada tahun 2000 sektor pertanian memberikan kontribusi utama bagi pdrb (gambar 2). sektor ini memberikan kontribusi sebesar 25,46 persen. pada tahun 2004, sektor ekonomi yang memberikan kontribusi terbesar telah bergeser pada sektor industri pengolahan. pangsa dari masingmasing sektor ini terlihat menunjukkan penurunan. kondisi ini berbeda dengan sektor perdagangan, hotel dan restoran yang memperlihatkan peningkatan pangsanya, dari 24,69 persen menjadi 24,98 persen. 31.859.847 25.770.251 25.775.860 25.003.122 9.706.644 4.443.406 4.396.672 4.372.576 951.207 829.689 38.381.267 29.850.328 27.992.475 29.450.135 12.223.849 5.403.299 5.431.176 5.301.067 1.171.103 1.068.928 25.000.000 50.000.000 industri pengolahan (dengan migas) industri pengolahan (tanpa migas) pertanian perdagangan, restoran dan hotel jasa-jasa bangunan pengangkutan dan komunikasi keuangan, persewaan dan jasa perbankan pertambangan dan penggalian listrik, gas dan air bersih th, 2004 th, 2000 gambar 1. pdrb sektoral jawa tengah 2000 dan 2004 (berdasar harga konstan 2000) jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 8, nomor 2, oktober 2007: 142-153 144 pergeseran share penyumbang pdrb terjadi pula di sektor ekonomi lainnya. gambar 2 memperlihatkan peran sektor industri pengolahan juga mengalami penurunan. jika dibandingkan dengan estimasi pertumbuhan rata-rata setiap sektor ekonomi setiap tahun, dari tahun 2000 sampai 2004, terlihat kedua sektor tersebut (pertanian dan industri pengolahan) menunjukkan pertumbuhan paling rendah, terutama sektor pertanian yang tumbuh sekitar 2,15 persen. berbeda dengan sektor listrik, gas dan air bersih, meskipun sektor ini memberikan kontribusi paling kecil bagi pdrb tetapi menunjukkan pertumbuhan paling tinggi, mencapai 7,21 persen per tahun. dari gambaran mengenai perubahan pangsa sektoral terhadap pdrb jateng dan pertumbuhan sektor-sektor ekonomi, penelitian ini akan melihat bagaimana perubahan tersebut terjadi di tingkat administrasi yang lebih kecil, yaitu kabupaten/kota. dari perubahan komposisi relatif besaran pdrb sektoral antarkabupaten/kota, penelitian akan melihat apakah suatu sektor-sektor ekonomi tertentu masih menjadi unggulan atau tidak di daerah tersebut. rumusan masalah yang diajukan adalah: 1. sektor-sektor ekonomi manakah yang menjadi sektor basis di setiap kabupaten/ kota di provinsi jawa tengah 2. sektor-sektor ekonomi manakah yang tergolong memiliki potensi unggulan dan tidak berpotensi unggulan di setiap kota/ kabupaten tersebut. tinjauan pustaka dalam penelitian ini sebagai berikut: penelitian mengenai analisis sektor-sektor ekonomi unggulan banyak diterapkan dalam kajian pembangunan ekonomi regional. salah satu penelitian mengenai hal ini adalah penelitian yang dilakukan oleh kuncoro dkk (2005). penelitian kuncoro bertujuan menentukan strategi ekonomi berbasis sektor unggulan. dengan menggunakan metode static dan dinamic location quotient, penelitian tersebut melihat potensi unggulan dari 9 sektor ekonomi di wilayah sleman dengan referensi wilayah diy. penelitian tersebut memperoleh 25,46% 25,45% 24,69% 9,59% 4,39% 4,34% 4,32% 0,94% 0,82% 23,74% 25,32% 24,98% 10,37% 4,58% 4,61% 4,50% 0,99% 0,91% pertanian industri pengolahan (tanpa migas) perdagangan, restoran dan hotel jasa-jasa bangunan pengangkutan dan komunikasi keuangan, persewaan dan jasa perbankan pertambangan dan penggalian listrik, gas dan air bersih 2004 2000 grafik 2. pangsa sektor ekonomi dan pertumbuhannya di jawa tengah analisis sektor-sektor ekonomi (abdul aziz ahmad) 145 identifikasi dua sektor ekonomi yang merupakan sektor ekonomi unggulan dan sekaligus tetap memiliki potensi unggul yaitu sektor industri pengolahan dan sektor keuangan, persewaan dan jasa perusahaan. penelitian lain dilakukan oleh hendayana (2003) yang menggunakan metode lq untuk menentukan komoditas unggulan nasional. dalam penelitiannya, hendayana melakukan identifikasi sub-subsektor unggulan dalam klasifikasi sektor pertanian. dengan membagi sektor pertanian menjadi subsektor tanaman pangan, hortikultura, buah-buahan, perkebunan dan peternakan, ia mengidentifikasi beberapa provinsi-provinsi yang dikategorikan unggul dalam sub-subsektor pertanian tersebut. penggunaan metode lq di negara-negara maju telah banyak dilakukan bukan hanya untuk kepentingan analisis pembangunan regional saja tetapi juga untuk kepentingan industri dan pengukuran lokalisasi ekonomi. sebagai misal, wagner (2000) menggunakan metode lq untuk mengukur tipe-tipe industri yang dianggap penting dan memiliki kriteria basis. harris dkk (2003) menemukan empat sektor ekonomi retail di clarson city pada tahun 2000 memiliki nilai lq antara 0,75 sampai 1,25 dan ia menyatakan empat sektor retail tersebut tergolong self-sufficient. demikian pula, maggioni, nosvelli dan uberti (2007) menggunakan lq untuk mengukur spesialisasi relatif sistem produksi regional pada industri teknologi tinggi di wilayah eropa. metode penelitian penelitian ini mengkaji perbandingan potensi ekonomi setiap sektor ekonomi antar kabupaten/kota di jawa tengah. lingkup sektor ekonomi yang menjadi kajian penelitian ini terdiri dari 9 sektor lapangan usaha, yaitu: 1. pertanian 2. pertambangan dan penggalian (tanpa migas) 3. industri pengolahan 4. listrik, gas dan air bersih 5. bangunan 6. perdagangan, hotel, restoran 7. pengangkutan dan komunikasi 8. keuangan, persewaan dan jasa perusahaan 9. jasa-jasa data yang dipergunakan dalam penelitian adalah data-data pdrb 9 sektor tersebut yang meliputi 35 kabupaten dan kota di wilayah administrasi provinsi jawa tengah (29 kabupaten dan 6 kota). periode data adalah tahun 2000 sampai 2004. untuk mengidentifikasi subsektor-subsektor unggulan atau ekonomi basis akan digunakan alat analisis location quotients. subsektor ungulan yang berkembang dengan baik tentunya akan memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah, yang pada akhirnya akan meningkatkan pendapatan daerah secara optimal (kuncoro, 2004). formula yang digunakan untuk analisis location quotient (slq) adalah sebagai berikut (wagner, 2000); e e e e lq s i si = dimana; es i = nilai produksi subsektor s pada daerah kabupaten/kota ei = total pdrb kabupaten/kota es = nilai produksi sektor s pada provinsi jateng e = total pdrb provinsi jateng jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 8, nomor 2, oktober 2007: 142-153 146 kriteria hasil penilaian yang diterapkan adalah sebagai berikut (kuncoro, 2004): 1. lq > 1, berarti tingkat spesialisasi subsektor tertentu pada tingkat daerah kabupaten/kota lebih besar dari sektor yang sama pada tingkat provinsi 2. lq < 1, berarti tingkat spesialisasi subsektor tertentu pada tingkat daerah kabupaten/kota lebih kecil dari sektor yang sama pada tingkat provinsi 3. lq = 1, berarti tingkat spesialisasi subsektor tertentu pada tingkat daerah kabupaten/kota sama dengan sektor yang sama pada tingkat provinsi jika suatu subsektor ekonomi memiliki nilai lq > 1 dapat dikatakan bahwa subsektor tersebut merupakan subsektor ungulan dari daerah kota/kabupaten. sebaliknya jika lq < 1, subsektor tersebut bukan merupakan subsektor ungulan. formula lq tersebut bersifat statis atau static location quotients (slq) karena hanya melihat satu periode atau titik waktu saja. model ini lemah karena tidak mampu melihat perubahan spesialisasi secara periodik. model tidak dapat melihat apakah suatu sektor yang unggul pada tahun ini masih tetap menjadi sektor unggulan pada tahun yang akan datang. demikian pula, model tidak mengakomodasi jika sektor yang belum unggul pada saat ini akan menjadi sektor unggulan di masa yang akan datang. pada analisis ini, nilai slq yang dipergunakan adalah rata-rata slq dari setiap slq yang dihasilkan pada setiap periode tahun penelitian. cara lain untuk menggunakan lq dalam pengambilan keputusan ekonomi regional adalah dengan melihat bagaimana nilai lq berubah sepanjang tahun. nilai dari perubahan lq ini menyediakan informasi yang bernilai apakah suatu subsektor ekonomi suatu daerah meningkat atau turun konsentrasinya secara relatif terhadap daerah lain. alternatif lain dari metode slq ini salah satunya dikembangkan oleh bank dunia. untuk menghasilkan nilai perubahan atau pertumbuhan lq tersebut, dinc (2002) menggunakan formula sebagai berikut: t tt lq lqlq lq − =δ +1 dinc (2002) menyatakan bahwa dari hasil lq tersebut, subsektor ekonomi dapat dikategorikan menjadi 4 kategori. pada matriks di bawah ini, nilai lq pada tahun terakhir mungkin akan besar dan terdapat kecenderungan meningkat, dimana hal ini merupakan situasi yang diharapkan (sel d). jika nilai lq besar tetapi mengalami penurunan sepanjang waktu, maka pengambil kebijakan perlu memberikan perhatian pada sektor ini (sel c). lq dapat pula kecil dan meningkat atau menurun sepanjang waktu. tabel 1. matriks perubahan lq perubahan (δ) lq negatif positif rendah a b nilai slq tinggi c d hasil penentuan kategori ini memberikan alat analisis yang penting bagi pengambilan kebijakan ekonomi, karena setiap kategori akan memerlukan pendekatan pembangunan ekonomi yang berbeda. sebagai misal, suatu daerah akan berfokus pada subsektor ekonomi yang memiliki lq tinggi. jika nilai lq subsektor tersebut mengalami penurunan maka akan berdampak menciptakan potensi masalah analisis sektor-sektor ekonomi (abdul aziz ahmad) 147 pembangunan ekonomi daerah. demikian pula, jika lq suatu subsektor relatif kecil tetapi menunjukkan adanya pertumbuhan maka subsektor ini perlu mendapat perhatian khusus. jika suatu subsektor ekonomi memperlihatkan penurunan lq, maka pemerintah daerah perlu mencari penyebabnya dan membuat program kebijakan yang dapat menghentikan penurunan lq subsektor tersebut atau paling tidak memperlambatnya. pada penelitian ini, kedua metode lq tersebut digunakan. data yang dipergunakan adalah data pdrb setiap kabupaten/kota di jawa tengah tahun 2000 sampai 2004, dengan harga konstan tahun 2000. nilai slq yang dipergunakan adalah rata-rata slq dari tahun 2000 sampai tahun 2004. nilai δlq yang dihasilkan adalah perbandingan antara nilai slq tahun 2000 dengan slq tahun 2004. terkait dengan metode yang digunakan, beberapa asumsi yang diterapkan dalam penelitian ini adalah: 1. data dengan rentang waktu 2000 – 2004 dianggap memiliki rentang waktu yang cukup untuk menunjukkan perubahan struktur perekonomian daerah. 2. subsektor ekonomi industri pengolahan ditentukan industri pengolahan tanpa minyak dan gas (migas). hal ini karena rentang tahun 2000 sampai 2004, subsektor ini memberikan kontribusi yang besar dan hanya terdapat di kabupaten cilacap saja. karena itu, untuk tujuan kesebandingan data industri pengolahan antar kabupaten kota, maka subsektor migas menjadi layak untuk dikeluarkan dari analisis. 3. kabupaten dan kota merupakan dua daerah yang setingkat dan dapat dibandingkan. dengan konsentrasi perolehan sumbersumber pdrbnya yang relatif berbeda, ke dua bentuk daerah administratif ini perlu menjadi perlu dianalisis apakah konsentrasi perolehan tersebut menunjukkan perubahan atau tidak. hasil dan pembahasan hasil analisis menunjukkan setiap daerah cenderung menunjukkan perbedaan dalam potensi sektor-sektor ekonominya. karena perbedaan sumbangan setiap sektor ekonomi pada daerah yang berbeda, sektor-sektor yang menjadi unggulan di suatu daerah relatif berbeda dengan daerah lainnya. demikian potensi sektoralnya untuk tetap unggul, terdapat perbedaan relatif antarkabupaten, antarkota maupun antara kabupaten dengan kota. tabel 2 sampai tabel 10 menunjukkan hasil pemetaan daerah dengan kategori tinggi/rendah slq dan digabungkan dengan kenaikan/penurunan δlq. tabel 2. nilai slq dan pertumbuhannya di sektor pertanian δ lq negatif δ lq positif slq rendah cilacap, semarang, kendal, tegal, kota magelang, kota surakarta, kota salatiga, kota semarang sukoharjo, karanganyar, kudus, pekalongan, kota tegal, kota pekalongan slq tinggi klaten, wonogiri, sragen, pati, banyumas, batang, pemalang, banjarnegara, purworejo, magelang grobogan, blora, rembang, jepara, demak, temanggung, brebes, purbalingga, kebumen, wonosobo, boyolali jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 8, nomor 2, oktober 2007: 142-153 148 pada sektor pertanian, daerah kota cenderung menampakkan nilai lq yang kecil dan semakin mengecil. hal ini menunjukkan sektor pertanian di daerah kota semakin memudar perannya sebagai sektor yang mampu memberikan sumbangan yang besar bagi pdrb. hanya kota tegal dan kota pekalongan yang terlihat memiliki lq rendah dan cenderung meningkat nilainya. daerah kabupaten dengan lq pertanian rendah dan pertumbuhan lqnya negatif adalah cilacap, kendal, semarang dan tegal. sebaliknya, daerah dengan potensi pertanian yang unggul (dengan lq tinggi) dan semakin unggul (δlq meningkat) adalah kabupaten grobogan, blora, rembang, jepara, demak, temanggung, brebes, purbalingga, kebumen, wonosobo, boyolali. daerah-daerah ini memiliki potensi yang paling baik untuk pengembangan sektor pertanian lebih lanjut. pada sektor pertambangan dan penggalian, terdapat lima kabupaten yang menunjukkan lq tinggi diikuti perkembangan lq positif. kabupaten ini adalah banyumas, cilacap, kebumen, kebumen dan tegal. kabupaten klaten, wonogiri, jepara, wonosobo dan kota semarang merupakan daerah dengan lq yang rendah tapi mengalami pertumbuhan lq positif. sementara, daerah-daerah lain menunjukkan pertumbuhan lq secara negatif. upaya peningkatan hasil produksi pada sektor tambang dan penggalian relatif sulit dilaksanakan karena sifat dari produk tambang dan galian adalah exhausted resources. pada sektor industri pengolahan, dua kabupaten yang penting untuk menjadi fokus perhatian adalah kabupaten jepara dan kudus. kedua daerah ini menunjukkan lq yang tinggi tetapi memperlihatkan penurunan. kudus tabel 3. nilai slq dan pertumbuhannya di sektor pertambangan dan penggalian δ lq negatif δ lq positif slq rendah karanganyar, pati, kudus, demak, semarang, purbalingga, kendal, banjarnegara, boyolali, kota surakarta, kota salatiga klaten, wonogiri, jepara, wonosobo, kota semarang slq tinggi sukoharjo, sragen, grobogan, blora, rembang, temanggung, batang, pekalongan, brebes, purworejo, magelang cilacap, banyumas, pemalang, tegal, kebumen tabel 4. nilai slq dan pertumbuhannya di sektor industri pengolahan δ lq negatif δ lq positif slq rendah cilacap, grobogan, rembang, demak, boyolali, kebumen, pemalang, kota pemalang, kota magelang, kota salatiga, kota tegal. klaten, wonogiri, sragen, blora, pati, banyumas, temanggung, brebes, purbalingga, banjarnegara, purworejo, wonosobo, magelang, kota pekalongan slq tinggi kudus, jepara sukoharjo, karanganyar, semarang, kendal, batang, pekalongan, tegal, kota surakarta, kota semarang analisis sektor-sektor ekonomi (abdul aziz ahmad) 149 terkenal dengan industri pengolahan tembakau menjadi rokok, sedangkan jepara terkenal dengan industri pengolahan kayu menjadi furnitur. sektor industri andalan kudus dan jepara ini memberikan kontribusi yang tinggi bagi ketersediaan lapangan kerja masyarakat daerah tersebut. karena itu, pencarian sebabsebab menurunnya peran sektor industri pengolahan serta penentuan kebijakan yang tepat perlu dilakukan (untuk penelitian lain). pada sektor listrik, gas dan air bersih, sebagian besar daerah di jawa tengah dan diy menunjukkan lq yang meningkat (positif), baik di daerah dengan lq rendah maupun lq tinggi. hal ini menunjukkan sektor ekonomi ini semakin berperan dalam memberikan kontribusi peningkatan pdrb. sebaliknya, yang perlu mendapat perhatian adalah beberapa daerah, terutama daerah berbentuk kota yang memperlihatkan lq yang tinggi tetapi cenderung menunjukkan penurunan. wilayah kota tersebut adalah kota magelang, surakarta, salatiga, pekalongan dan tegal. sektor listrik, gas dan air bersih di wilayah kota pada umumnya cenderung memberikan kontribusi yang lebih tinggi daripada daerah kabupaten. aktivitas ekonomi modern banyak memerlukan listrik dan gas. demikian pula, penyediaan air bersih cenderung lebih terfokus di wilayah kota karena daerah kota relatif menunjukkan permasalahan pada rendahnya debit air yang dihasilkan tanah kota maupun kualitas air bersih dibanding dengan daerah kabupaten. menurunnya peran sektor ini di wilayah kota akan memberikan dampak buruk bagi aktivitas ekonomi modern di perkotaan dan akan berdampak pula pada tabel 5. nilai lq dan pertumbuhannya di sektor listrik, gas dan air bersih δ lq negatif δ lq positif slq rendah cilacap, grobogan, rembang, pekalongan, tegal, brebes, purworejo, wonosobo klaten, wonogiri, blora, kudus, jepara, demak, semarang, temanggung, batang, pemalang, banjarnegara, purbalingga, kebumen, magelang, boyolali slq tinggi kendal, kota magelang, kota surakarta, kota salatiga, kota pekalongan, kota tegal sukoharjo, karanganyar, sragen, pati, banyumas, kota semarang tabel 6. nilai slq dan pertumbuhannya di sektor bangunan δ lq negatif δ lq positif slq rendah wonogiri, blora, rembang, demak, kendal, pemalang, kebumen, wonosobo, boyolali cilacap, sukoharjo, karanganyar, sragen, pati, kudus, banyumas, jepara, semarang, batang, tegal, brebes slq tinggi grobogan, pekalongan, banjarnegara, kota magelang, kota surakarta, kota salatiga, kota semarang, kota pekalongan, kota tegal klaten, temanggung, purbalingga, purworejo, magelang jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 8, nomor 2, oktober 2007: 142-153 150 turunnya fungsi amenities lingkungan kota bagi masyarakat penghuninya. untuk sektor bangunan, daerah kota relatif lebih tinggi nilai lqnya dibanding daerah kabupaten. meskipun demikian, daerah-daerah kota ini cenderung menurun nilai lqnya. daerah-daerah ini layak menjadi sorotan karena penurunan nilai lq memberikan gambaran penurunan aktivitas ekonomi untuk sektor bangunan, misalnya untuk real estate. penurunan lq tersebut menunjukkan pula bahwa daerah tersebut mulai dianggap semakin kurang menarik sebagai tempat untuk hunian maupun penentuan lokasi bisnis. sebaliknya, sebagian besar daerah berbentuk kabupaten menunjukkan pertumbuhan positif pada lqnya. untuk sektor perdagangan, restoran dan hotel, mayoritas daerah menunjukkan lq yang rendah, termasuk di antaranya adalah kota magelang, kota surakarta dan kota tegal. tetapi, tiga daerah kota ini menunjukkan perkembangan lq positif. tiga daerah dengan lq tinggi dan pertumbuhan lqnya positif adalah cilacap, pemalang, tegal dan kota pekalongan. meningkatnya peran sektor ini memberikan dampak positif, termasuk bagi pengembangan wisata di daerah tersebut. sementara, daerah dimana sektor ini merupakan sektor unggulan tetapi menunjukkan perkembangan negatif adalah kabupaten boyolali, klaten, kudus dan kota semarang. untuk sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi, relatif terjadi pemerataan jumlah daerah yang menunjukkan perubahan lq maupun besaran nilai lq. seluruh wilayah kota berada pada lq yang tinggi yang berarti sektor ini masih menjadi sektor unggulan di daerah kota, tabel 7. nilai slq dan pertumbuhannya di sektor perdagangan, restoran, dan hotel δ lq negatif δ lq positif slq rendah sukoharjo, wonogiri, karanganyar, grobogan, blora, rembang, pati, jepara, demak, semarang, batang, pekalongan, brebes, banjarnegara, purworejo, magelang, kota salatiga sragen, banyumas, temanggung, kendal, purbalingga, kebumen, wonosobo, kota magelang, kota surakarta, kota tegal slq tinggi klaten, kudus, boyolali, kota semarang cilacap, pemalang, tegal, kota pekalongan tabel 8. nilai slq dan pertumbuhannya di sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi δ lq negatif δ lq positif slq rendah cilacap, klaten, blora, grobogan, pati, demak, kendal, brebes, boyolali karanganyar, sragen, kudus, semarang, batang, pekalongan, pemalang, kebumen slq tinggi sukoharjo, banyumas, jepara, tegal, purbalingga, magelang, kota surakarta, kota pekalongan, kota tegal wonogiri, rembang, temanggung, banjarnegara, wonosobo, purworejo, kota magelang, kota salatiga, kota semarang, analisis sektor-sektor ekonomi (abdul aziz ahmad) 151 dan sebaliknya sebagian besar daerah kabupaten menunjukkan lq yang rendah. untuk sektor keuangan, persewaan, dan jasa-jasa, seluruh daerah kota menunjukkan pertumbuhan lq negatif. penurunan nilai lq ini memberikan identifikasi sektor keuangan persewaan dan jasa-jasa menunjukkan perkembangan yang lebih cepat pada beberapa daerah kabupaten daripada daerah kota. kesimpulan potensi ekonomi daerah-daerah di provinsi jawa tengah menarik untuk dikaji. dengan populasi penduduk yang relatif tinggi di banding daerah provinsi lainnya, di daerah ini telah terjadi perubahan struktur perekonomian. pada tahun 2000, daerah-daerah ini masih cenderung mengandalkan sektor pertanian sebagai sumber pendapatan utama, tetapi pada tahun 2004, sektor pertanian menunjukkan kontribusi yang semakin menurun. selain itu, munculnya daerah-daerah berbentuk kota di jawa tengah sejak tahun 1999 telah mempengaruhi perubahan perkembangan ekonomi. munculnya kota baru mendorong semakin tingginya aktivitas ekonomi modern yang memberikan kontribusi besar bagi pdrb. analisis location quotient (lq) menunjukkan terdapat perbedaan relatif sektor-sektor yang menjadi sektor unggulan antara daerah kabupaten dan kota. daerah kabupaten pada umumnya masih mengandalkan sektor pertanian sebagai sektor unggulan, sementara daerah kota cenderung mengandalkan sektor pengangkutan dan transportasi, serta sektor listrik, air dan gas. beberapa kota juga menunjukkan sektor keuangan, persewaan dan jasa tabel 9. nilai slq dan pertumbuhannya di sektor keuangan, persewaan, dan jasa perusahaan δ lq negatif δ lq positif slq rendah cilacap, klaten, karanganyar, sragen, rembang, demak, temanggung, kendal, brebes, magelang, kota semarang sukoharjo, wonogiri, grobogan, kudus, semarang, batang, pemalang, purbalingga slq tinggi kebumen, wonosobo, kota magelang, kota surakarta, kota salatiga, kota pekalongan, kota tegal blora, pati, banyumas, jepara, pekalongan, tegal, banjarnegara, purworejo, boyolali tabel 10. nilai slq dan pertumbuhannya di sektor jasa-jasa δ lq negatif δ lq positif slq rendah cilacap, karanganyar, blora, rembang, kudus, jepara, demak, semarang, tegal, brebes, wonosobo sukoharjo, pati, kendal, pemalang, boyolali slq tinggi grobogan, banyumas, temanggung, pekalongan, purbalingga, kebumen, purworejo, kota magelang, kota surakarta, kota salatiga, kota pekalongan, kota tegal klaten, wonogiri, sragen, batang, banjarnegara, magelang, kota semarang jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 8, nomor 2, oktober 2007: 142-153 152 perusahaan serta sektor jasa-jasa merupakan sektor unggulan, meskipun terjadi penurunan nilai lq dalam rentang 2000 sampai 2004. dari analisis pertumbuhan lq dapat diketahui daerah-daerah mana yang perlu mendapat perhatian bagi pengambil kebijakan ekonomi. beberapa daerah menunjukkan nilai lq relatif rendah disertai penurunan nilai lq. jika kondisi ini terjadi di sektor yang penting dan vital bagi masyarakat, maka akan berdampak buruk dengan menurunnya aktivitas sektor ekonomi lain maupun tingkat kesejahteraan masyarakat. demikian pula, jika sektor ekonomi tersebut merupakan sektor yang vital bagi daerah tersebut, misalnya sektor listrik, air dan gas di daerah kota, dimana lima daerah kota menunjukkan nilai lq yang tinggi tetapi juga memperlihatkan tendensi lq yang menurun. pengambil kebijakan perlu mencari sebab-sebab dari penurunan dari peran sektor tersebut. pemerintah perlu membuat program kebijakan yang dapat menghentikan penurunan lq atau paling tidak memperlambatnya. dari temuan empiris, penelitian ini memberikan saran yang dapat menjadi pertimbangan bagi pengambil kebijakan: 1. identifikasi sektor ekonomi yang tergolong unggul dan memiliki potensi unggul perlu menjadi perhatian utama. pembangunan dan peningkatan aktivitas di sektor ini akan cenderung lebih mempercepat proses peningkatan pembangunan daerah dan peningkatan pendapatan daerah. 2. sektor ekonomi primer utama, yaitu sektor pertanian, di beberapa daerah kabupaten cenderung menunjukkan penurunan, yang ditunjukkan dengan penurunan nilai lq. karena sektor ini memberikan manfaat bagi sumber penghasilan mayoritas masyarakat, serta masih memberikan kontribusi penting bagi pdrb, maka pembangunan sektor pertanian perlu dilakukan lebih intensif, terutama di daerah kabupaten. 3. menurunnya nilai lq pada sektor listrik, gas dan air bersih di daerah kota dapat menjadi salah tanda dari penurunan kualitas amenities masyarakat kota. upaya pencarian tambahan sumber energi dan air bersih yang layak bagi masyarakat kota merupakan langkah yang penting. daftar pustaka dinc, mustafa. 2002. regional and local economic analysis tools. the world bank. washington, dc harris, t. r., bonnenfant, b., bartholet, r., halbardier k. 2003. an updated analysis of retail trade in carson cita. ucek technical report. 2003-04-07. university of nevada, reno hendayana, r. 2003. aplikasi metode location quotient (lq) dalam penentuan komoditas unggulan nasional. informatika pertanian volume 12, desember. kuncoro, m., widodo, t., sulistyaningrum, e. 2005. pembangunan daerah kabupaten sleman di era otonomi: analisis kebijakan dan implikasinya bagi perencanaan jangka panjang, kerja sama pusat studi ekonomi dan kebijakan publik ugm dengan lembaga penyelidikan ekonomi dan masyarakat fe ui. maret 2005 kuncoro, mudrajad, 2004. otonomi & pembangunan daerah, reformasi, perencanaan, strategi, dan peluang. jakarta: penerbit erlangga. lego, brian, tesfa gebremedhin, and brian cushing, 2000, a multi-sector export base model of long-run regional employment growth, agricultural and resource economics review vol. 29 no. 12, october pp. 192-197. analisis sektor-sektor ekonomi (abdul aziz ahmad) 153 maggioni, m.a., nosvelli, m., uberti, t.e. 2007. space vs. networks in the geography of innovation: a european analysis. papers in regional science. august 2007. o'donoghue, dan, and bill gleave, 2004, a note on methods for measuring industrial agglomeration, regional studies, vol. 38, no. 4, pp. 419-427. soepono, prasetyo, 2001, teori pertumbuhan berbasis ekonomi (ekspor): posisi dan sumbangannya bagi perbendaharaan alat-alat analisis regional, jurnal ekonomi dan bisnis indonesia, vol. 16 no. 1. wagner. 2000. regional economic diversity: action, concept, or state of confusion. the journal of regional analysis and policy, vol. 30 no. 2. convert jpg to pdf online convert-jpg-to-pdf.net studi efektivitas pelayanan publik di kecamatan kejaksan kota cirebon jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 69 88 kausalitas investasi asing terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi: error correction model eni setyowati 1, wuryaningsih dl 1, dan rini kuswati 1 1 fakultas ekonomi universitas muhammadiyah surakarta jalan a. yani pabelan tromol pos i kartasura surakarta 57102 e-mail: nayla.azka@yahoo.com abstrak: investasi sebagai salah satu komponen yang diperlukan untuk melanjutkan proses pembangunan ekonomi. tujuan penelitian yang hendak dicapai adalah untuk memperkirakan pengaruh investasi asing terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi dan sebaliknya. manfaat yang dapat diperoleh adalah untuk meningkatkan keberadaan teori pertumbuhan ekonomi dapat diterapkan di indonesia, memperkuat hasil penelitian sebelumnya dan menjelaskan pengertian dari teori pertumbuhan ekonomi. salah satu cara untuk menganalisis pengaruh jangka pendek dan jangka panjang adalah dengan menggunakan model dinamis. dalam studi ini, model yang digunakan adalah model koreksi kesalahan engle granger (eg-ecm), yang didasarkan pada teorema representasi granger. dari hasil penelitian diketahui bahwa variabel yang memiliki dampak signifikan dalam jangka pendek adalah investasi langsung asing terhadap pdb dan sebaliknya. hasil penelitian ini telah membuktikan adanya dua arah kausalitas. kata kunci: investasi asing, gdp, eg-ecm, pertumbuhan ekonomi abstract: investment is one of the important components for the sustainability of economic development process. research objectives to be achieved are to estimate the influence of foreign investment on economic growth, and vice versa. the benefits to be gained are to increase the existence of economic growth theory can be applied in indonesia, strengthen the results of previous studies, and clarify the understanding of the theory of economic growth. one of the way to analyze the influence of short-run and long run is to use dynamic models. in this study, the model used is the engle granger's error correction models (eg-ecm), based granger representation theorem. from the results of the research note that the variables that have a significant impact in the short run is the foreign direct investment to gdp and vice versa. these research results have proved the existence of two-way causality keywords: foreign investment, gdp, eg-ecm, economic growth pendahuluan di negara-negara berkembang yang berpenghasilan rendah seringkali terjadi kesenjangan investasi dan tabungan serta kesenjangan devisa yang dicerminkan dalam defisit anggaran. umumnya untuk menutup kesenjangan tersebut kebanyakan negara berkembang mengundang investor asing. harapan bagi negara berkembang atas peran modal asing yang masuk ke negaranya sebagaimana yang ditulis mudrajad (1997) yaitu: pertama, sumber dana eksternal dapat dimanfaatkan oleh negara berkembang sebagai dasar untuk mempercepat pertumbuhan ekonomi, kedua, pertumbuhan ekonomi yang meningkat perlu diikuti dengan struktur ekonomi dan perdagangan; ketiga, modal asing dapat berperan penting dalam mobilijurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 69 88 70 sasi dana maupun transformasi struktural; keempat, kebutuhan akan modal asing menjadi menurun setelah perubahan struktural benar-benar terjadi. pemerintah telah mengeluarkan kebijakan deregulasi melalui beberapa paket kebijakan di antaranya: paket juli 1992 (dikeluarkan pada tanggal 7 juli 1992). paket oktober (dikeluarkan pada tanggal 23 oktober 1993), dan paket desember 1994 (dikeluarkan pada tanggal 20 desember 1994). paket kebijakan yang baru tersebut dimaksudkan untuk mendorong terciptanya iklim investasi yang lebih menarik. juga untuk meningkatkan efisiensi produksi yang diperlukan untuk mempertahankan daya saing. dalam paket tersebut diberikan lebih banyak kemudahan dan peluang bagi peningkatan efisiensi melalui penyederhanaan prosedur investasi dan perijinan terutama sektor industri, perdagangan, dan jasa. hal ini bisa dilihat dari besarnya jumlah investasi di sektor industri yang menempati urutan pertama dari sembilan sektor yang ada. total industri asing menurut sektor yang besar adalah investasi di sektor industri pengolaan sebesar 16.818,21 juta dollar pada tahun 1995 dan 24.282,30 juta dollar pada tahun 1996. sektor industri pengolahan merupakan salah satu yang menggunakan teknologi tinggi untuk mengolah sumber daya yang ada. sehingga sektor industri pegolahan membutuhkan modal yang besar untuk memenuhi sarana prasarana yang ada untuk mengoptimalkan fungsi dari faktorfaktor produksi yang ada. jika para investor asing bersedia mengucurkan dana yang besar untuk membiayai kebuuhan modal sektor industri pengolahan dibandingkan sektor pertanian yang hanya menerima sektor pertanian yang hanya menerima investasi asing sebesar 1.425,36 juta dollar pada tahun 2000, 1036,85 juta dollar pada tahun 2001 dan 1.354,23 juta dollar pada tahun 2002. sektor pertanian memang memiliki beberpa kelemahan pada lingkungan, sehinga para investor asing kurang berminat pada sektor ini. lain halnya dengan nvestasi dalam negeri, justru pada mengalami kenaikan dari 106.546,86 milyar rupiah pada tahun 2002. bermula dari latar belakang di atas penelitian ini membatasi pada permasalahan apakah investasi asing berpengaruh terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi ataukah pertumbuhan ekonomi berpengaruh terhadap investasi asing. tinjauan pustaka dalam penelitian ini sebagai berikut: 1. pengertian investasi pengertian investasi (menurut sukirno, 2000: 366) adalah pengeluaran untuk membeli barang-barang modal dan peralatan-pealatan produksi dengan tujuan untuk mengganti dan terutama untuk menambah barangbarang modal perekonomian yang akan digunakan untuk memproduksi barang dan jasa di masa depan. investasi adalah penambahan barang modal secara netto positif (mangkoesubroto, 1998: 81). seseorang yang membeli barang modal tapi ditujukan untuk mengganti barang modal yang aus dalam proses produksi bukanlah merupakan investasi, tetapi disebut dengan pembelian barang modal untuk mengganti (replacement). pembelian barang modal ini merupakan investasi pada waktu yang akan datang. secara garis besar ada tiga sumber utama moal asing dalam suatu negara yang menganut sistem perekonomian terbuka, yaitu: pinjaman luar negeri (debt), penanaman modal asing langsung (foreign direct investment, fdi), dan investasi portofolio. pinjaman luar negeri dilakukan oleh pemerintah secara bilateral maupun multilateral. investasi kausalitas investasi asing ... (eni setyowati dkk) 71 portofolio adalah investasi yang dilakukan melalui pasar modal. penanaman modal asing langsung merupakan investasi yang dilakukan oleh swasata asing ke suatu negara tertentu. bentuknya dapat berupa cabang perusahaan multinasional, anak perusahaan multinasional (subsidiari), lisensi, joint venture, atau lainnya. manfaat yang dapat diharapkan dari suatu paket modal asing (fdi) adalah berupa: (a) penyerapan tenaga kerja (employment), (b) alih teknologi, (c) pelatihan manajerial, dan (d) akses ke pasar internasional melalui ekspor. dilihat dari sasaran penjualan outputnya, perusahaan multinasional dapat dibedakan ke dalam dua kelompok: (a) penanaman modal asing yang berorientasi ke pasar domestik yang biasanya cenderung menggunakan teknologi produksi yang padat modal, dan (b) penanaman modal asing yang berorientasi ke pasar luar negeri yang yang besarnya cenderung menggunakan produksi berteknologi padat karya karena lebih murah. 2. teori pertumbuhan ekonomi model pertumbuhan ekonomi harrod-domar menjelaskan bahwa investasi di dalam proses pertumbuhan ekonomi memiliki peranan yang sangat menentukan, khususnya watak ganda yang dimiliki investasi yaitu (jhingan, 1993): a. menciptakan pendapatan yang sering disebut sebagai dampak permintaan. b. memperbesar kapasitas produksi perekonomian dengan cara meningkatkan stok modal yang sering sebagai dampak penawaran investasi. selama investasi netto tetap berlangsung pendapatan nyata dan output akan senantiasa membesar. model yang dikembangkan oleh harroddomar yaitu (jhingan, 1993): a. model domar domar mendasarkan modelnya pada pertanyaan bahwa investasi di satu pihak menghasilkan pendapatan dan di pihak lain menaikkan kapasitas produksi, maka investasi harus meningkat agar kenaikan pendapatan sama dengan kenaikan kapasitas produksi, supaya keadaan full employment dapat dipertahankan. ia menjawab pertanyaan ini melalui pendekatan dengan mempererat kaitan antara penawaran agregat dengan permintaaan agregat melalui investasi. domar menjelaskan kenaikan kapasitas produksi sisi penawaran dianggap sebagai laju pertumbuhan tahunan dari investasi. kapasitas produksi yang baru diinvestasikan rata-rata sama dengan tabungan. tetapi sebagian investasi baru akan menggambarkan investasi lama. karena itu investasi baru akan bersaing dengan investasi lama di pasar tenaga kerja dan fakor-faktor produksi lain. hasil output pabrik lama akan berkembang dan kenaikan output tahunan dari perekonomian sedikit lebih kecil dari pada kapasitas produksi yang baru diinvestasikan. kenaikan yang diperlukan dalam permintaan agregart disisi permintaan dalam model domar menjelaskan bahwa multiple keynesian akan terjadi. misalkan kenaikan rata-rata pendapatan (y), sedang kenaikan investasi sama dengan multiplikator        1 kali kenaikan investasi.         1 iy . untuk mendapatkan equilibrium pendapatan pada full employment, permintaan jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 69 88 72 agregat harus sama dengan penawaran agregart. dengan demikian persamaan akan berubah menjadi    1 . persamaan ini menunjukkan bahwa untuk mempertahankan full employment, laju pertumbuhan investasi autonomous netto   harus sama dengan marginal propensity to saving kali produktifitas modal   . ini batas laju kecepatan investasi yang diperlukan untuk menjamin penggunaan kapasitas potensial dalam rangka mempertahankan laju pertumbuhan ekonomi yang mantap pada keadaan full employment. b. model harrod model harrod didasarkan pada tiga laju pertumbuhan yaitu: 1) laju pertumbuhan aktual (g) ditentukan ole ratio tabungan dalam ratio output. laju pertumbuhan akan menunjukkan variasi klasik jangka pendek dalam laju pertumbuhan ekonomi. 2) laju pertumbuhan terjamin (gw) merupakan laju pertumbuhan pendapatan kapasitas penuh suatu perekonomian. 3) laju pertumbuhan alamiah (gr) oleh harrod dianggap sebagai “optimum kesejahteraan” dapat juga disebut sebagai laju pertumbuhan potensial. prinsip akselerasi mengatakan bahwa tingkat/besarnya investasi proporsional terhadap perubahan dari output (gnp). secara sederhana prinsip akselerasi ini dapat dijelaskan sebagai berikut: pengusaha menginginkan suatu hubungan tertentu (proporsi tertentu) dan modal yang diinginkan dengan hasil produksi (output). (nopirin,1996) k1* = a y1 .......(1) dimana: k1* = jumlah modal yang diinginkan a = perbandingan antara modal dengan output yang diinginkan pengusaha melakukan investasi apabila jumlah modal yang diinginkan pada suatu saat lebih besar dari pada jumlah modal yang betul-betul dimiliki dikurangi dengan penyusutan. investasi dalam arti ini dapat dituliskan sebagai berikut: i = k1* kt-1 (1-d) …….(2) jumlah modal pada akhir suatu periode t = kt-1 (1-d) ditambah dengan investasi netto kt = kt-1 (1-d) + 1t …….(3) dengan asumsi bahwa penyusutan terhadap jumlah modal yang diinginkan dilakukan dalam periode (koefisien penyesuaian = 1). implikasinya, jumlah modal periode t sama dengan jumlah modal yang diinginkan pada periode t, oleh karena itu diperoleh: kt = kt* sehingga persamaan (1) menjadi kt = a yt …….(4) kausalitas investasi asing ... (eni setyowati dkk) 73 dengan memasukkan persamaan di atas diperoleh prinsip akselerasi sebagai berikut: 1t = k*1-kt-1+ dkt-1 …….(5) 1t = a (y1-yt-1) + dkt-1 ……..(6) persamaan (6) berarti bahwa investasi bruto tergantung pada pertumbuhan output dan penyusutan. bagian pertama disebut investasi netto. dengan demikian investasi netto merupakan fungsi dan pertumbuhan output. konsekuensinya suatu perekonomian yang tidak mengalami pertumbuhan output maka investasi juga akan sama dengan nol (nopirin, 1996). pertumbuhan ekonomi merupakan salah satu tujuan penting dari kebijakan ekonomi makro. perekonomian yang tumbuh akan mampu memberikan kesejahteraan ekonomi yang lebih baik bagi penduduk negara yang bersangkutan. istilah pertumbuhan ekonomi harus dibedakan dengan istilah pembangunan ekonomi, karena pertumbuhan ekonomi hanya menyangkut ukuran fisik yang berupa peningkatan produksi barang dan jasa, sedangkan pembangunan ekonomi menyangkut tidak hanya pertambahan dalam produksi fisik barang dan jasa melainkan juga kualitas barang dan jasa maupun kualitas faktor-faktor produksi yang terlibat dalam proses produksi barang dan jasa tersebut (suparmoko, 1990). pengertian pertumbuhan ekonomi menurut boediono (1985) yaitu suatu proses kenaikan proses kenaikan output dalam jangka panjang. sedangkan menurut sukirno (1981) adalah kenaikan gross national product (gnp) atau gross domestic product (gdp) tanpa memandang apakah kenaikan itu lebih besar atau lebih kecil dari tingkat pertumbuhan penduduk dan juga tidak memandang struktur ekonomi berubah atau tidak. ada dua alasan mengapa angka-angka pendapatan nasional merupakan dasar yang diperlukan guna menghitung tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi. pertama, angka statistik tersebut diperoleh dengan jalan menjumlahkan nilai tambah bruto yang dihasilkan oleh aktifitas produksi di dalam perekonomian, yang berarti peningkatan angka-angka tersebut mencerminkan peningkatan balas jasa. kedua, angka-angka pendapatan nasional hanya mencakup nilai produk yang dihasilkan pada suatu periode tertentu dan tidak mencakup nilai produk yang dihasilkan pada periode tertentu dan tidak mencakup nilai produk yang dihasilkan pada periodeperiode sebelumnya. dengan demikian konsep aliran dalam perhitungan angka pendapatan nasional jumlah output yang dihasilkan dalam tiap-tiap periode dapat dibandingkan (ikhsan, 1996). perlu diperhatikan, untuk menghitung tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi data pendapatan nasional yang digunakan adalah data pendapatan nasional atas dasar harga konstan. dengan menggunakan data atas dasar harga konstan, maka pendapatan nasional semata-mata hanya mencerminkan pertumbuhan output yang dihasilkan perekonomian pada periode tertentu. dengan menggunakan data pendapatan nasional atas dasar harga konstan pengaruh perubahan harga terhadap nilai pendapatan nasional (atas dasar harga berlaku), telah dihilangkan (ikhsan, 1996). tujuan perhitungan pertumbuhan ekonomi adalah untuk mengetahui ada tidaknya peningkatan kesejahteraan masyarakat. pertumbuhan ekonomi seharusnya dihitung dengan data pendapatan nasional per kapita atas dasar harga konstan, pertumbuhan pendapatan nasional dapat saja terjadi tanpa jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 69 88 74 memberi dampak positif pada tingkat kesejahteraan masyarakat sebagai akibat dari tingkat pertumbuhan penduduk yang tinggi dari tingkat pertumbuhan pendapatan nasional (susanti, 1996). pertumbuhan ekonomi yang lebih tepat diukur dengan menggunakan pertumbuhan pendapatan perkapita menurut adanya kenaikan produk domestik bruto atau pendapatan nasional. agar kita dapat benarbenar memahami bagaimana caranya mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi, maka kita harus memahami pula bagaimana proses pengaruh dari faktor yang mempengaruhinya. faktorfaktor tersebut di antaranya: 1. penanaman modal dalam negeri investasi merupakan komponen yang mudah berubah. jika pengeluaran terhadap barang dan jasa turun selama resesi maka penurunannya biasa berkenaan dengan jatuhnya dalam pengeluaran untuk investasi. investasi dalam pendapatan nasional merupakan unsur yang sangat mudah mengalami keguncangan dan sangat tidak stabil. karena investasi dipengaruhi oleh beberapa faktor, disamping pertimbangan psikologis para pengusaha. kaitan investasi dengan pendapatan nasional sedemikian penting, keguncangan yang terjadi pada investasi akan menyebabkan dampak rentetan atau susulan yang lebih hebat dalam pendapatan nasional. penurunan investasi akan menyebabkan tingkat pendapatan nasional menurun di bawah kapasitas pendapatan nasional. penurunan investasi terhadap kapasitas produksi nasional memang sangat besar, karena investasi merupakan penggerak perekonomian, baik untuk penambahan faktor produksi maupun berupa peningkatan kualitas faktor produksi (jhingan, 1993). modal dari dalam negeri berarti persediaan faktor produksi yang bersifat fisik yang dapat direproduksi dan berasal dari pihak swasta domestik. apabila modal swasta dalam negeri naik dalam batas waktu tertentu akan mampu meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi (jhingan, 1993). 2. penanaman modal asing pembiayaan pembangunan tidak semuanya berasal dari pemerintah tetapi juga dari swasta, dikarenakan pemerintah mengalami defisit anggaran di samping itu untuk memberi kesempatan bagi swasta untuk turut membangun ekonomi indonesia. pembiayaan pembangunan dari swasta khususnya penanaman modal asing diharapkan mampu meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi dan menyediakan lapangan pekerjaan serta mampu mempercepat proses pengentasan kemiskinan (kuncoro, 2000). metode alat analisis alat analisis yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah engle-granger error correction model (eg-ecm). model koreksi kesalahan mampu meliputi banyak variabel dalam menganalisis fenomena ekonomi jangka panjang serta mengkaji konsistensi model empiris dengan teori ekonomi. penurunan model dinamis engle-granger error correction model (eg-ecm) dilakukan dengan metode autoregressive distributed lags (adl) dengan cara memasukkan variabel kelambanan dalam model. secara umum dapat dituliskan sebagai berikut (thomas, 1995, 431-434; maddala, 2001, 565). yt=lagged (y, x)ut-1+ t 0< < 1 kausalitas investasi asing ... (eni setyowati dkk) 75 dimana ut adalah residual regresi kointegrasi dan  merupakan parameter penyesuaian jangka pendek. pendekatan ini konsisten dengan granger representation theorem yaitu jika xt dan yt berkointegrasi, maka residual regresi kointegrasi ut juga akan stasioner. menurut engle dan granger (1987), estimasi model dinamis dengan pendekatan ini memerlukan dua tahapan (two-stage procedure engle-granger error correction model). jika dimisalkan persamaan regresi kointegrasi yang diestimasi adalah yt = 0 + 1xt dengan residual kointegrasinya ut = yt 0 + 1xt, maka pengujian yang akan dilakukan adalah sebagai berikut (thomas, 1997, 432436; harris, 1995) tahap pertama, mengestimasi parameter jangka panjang. hal ini dilakukan dengan melakukan regresi persamaan kointegrasi yt = 0 + 1xt, jika yt dan xt berkointegrasi, maka koefisien parameter jangka panjang 0 dan 1 akan konsisten. tahap kedua adalah melakukan estimasi terhadap persamaan yt = lagged (y, x) ut-1 + t. banyaknya lag yang digunakan dalam estimasi jangka pendek ini dapat diketahui dengan metode general to specific yang dikembangkan oleh hendry atau biasa disebut hendry’s general to specific modeling (hgsm). (harris, 1995, 24, thomas, 1997, 354359): melalui two stage procedure eg-ecm tersebut, maka akan diperoleh nilai estimasi untuk jangka panjang maupun jangka pendeknya. uji akar unit uji akar unit (unit root test) merupakan bagian dari uji stasionaritas karena pada prinsipnya uji tersebut dimaksudkan untuk mengamati apakah koefisien tertentu dari model autoregresif yang ditaksir memiliki nilai satu atau tidak. namun demikian model autoregresif tidak memiliki distribusi yang baku, maka untuk menguji hipotesisnya digunakan metode pengujian yang dikembangkan oleh dickey dan fuller (1979) dengan penaksiran sebagai berikut (gujarati, 1995, 720). 1. dickey-fuller (df) test yt = yt-1 + ut yt = 1 + yt-1 + ut yt = 1 + 2t + yt-1 + ut dimana 1, 2, dan  adalah parameter estimasi dan ut adalah white noise error. pengujian dilakukan dengan hipotesis nol  = 0. pengujian dilakukan pada ketiga persamaan di atas dengan ols untuk mendapatkan nilai estimasi dan standard error-nya. perbedaan dari ketiga persamaan di atas adalah adanya komponen deterministik 1 dan 2t. persamaan pertama adalah model random walk. persamaan kedua diestimasi dengan menggunakan intersep, sedangkan persamaan ketiga mencakup intersep dan trend 2. augmented dickey-fuller test pengujian dickey-fuller hanya terbatas pada first-order autoregressive process atau ar(1). jika data time series berkorelasi pada lag yang lebih tinggi, maka asumsi white noise error tidak berlaku lagi. untuk pengujian akar unit (unit root test) dengan tingkat yang lebih tinggi, maka dilakukan pengujian adf. pengujian adf melakukan koreksi terhadap terjadinya serial korelasi pada lag yang lebih tinggi, misal autoregresif pada order p atau ar(p). dengan mengasumsikan bahwa y mengikuti proses ar(p), maka.     p i tititt yyty 1 121  jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 69 88 76 pengujian dilakukan dengan hipotesis nol  = 0, jika 1 = 1 berarti  = 0 dan di dalam sistem terdapat akar unit (unit root). pengujian juga dapat dilakukan dengan memasukkan intersep dan atau trend, maupun tanpa keduanya. nilai df atau adf yang dihasilkan dibandingkan dengan nilai kritisnya. jika nilai df atau adf hitungnya lebih besar dibandingkan dengan nilai kritisnya, berarti ho yang menyatakan bahwa tidak ada akar unit dapat ditolak. dengan kata lain variabel yang diamati telah stasioner. uji derajat integrasi pada dasarnya uji derajat integrasi merupakan perluasan dari uji akar unit. uji derajat integrasi dilakukan dengan menaksir model autoregresif berikut ini: 1. dickey-fuller (df) test  2 yt = yt-1 + ut  2 yt = 1 + yt-1 + ut  2 yt = 1 + 2t + yt-1 + ut 2. augmented dickey-fuller test     p 1i tit 2 i1t21t 2 εyδαδytββyδ prosedur pengujian yang dilakukan sama dengan prosedur pengujian pada uji akar unit. nilai statistik df dan adf untuk mengetahui pada derajat ke berapa suatu data akan stasioner dapat dilihat pada nilai t pada koefisien regresi yt-1 persamaan di atas. jika  sama dengan satu, maka variabel yt dikatakan berintegrasi pada derajat satu i(1), atau stasioner pada diferensiasi ke-satu. jika  sama dengan nol, maka variabel yt belum stasioner pada differensiasi ke-satu. bila hal tersebut terjadi, uji derajat integrasi perlu dilanjutkan dengan data diferensiasi kedua dan seterusnya, hingga diperoleh data yang stasioner. dalam melakukan pengujian derajat integrasi, nilai df atau adf yang dihasilkan dibandingkan dengan nilai kritisnya, berarti ho yang menyatakan bahwa variabel diamati tidak terintegrasi pada derajat ke-n dapat ditolak. dengan kata lain variabel yang diamati stasioner pada derajat ke-n. uji kointegrasi uji kointegrasi merupakan kelanjutan dari uji akar unit dan uji derajat integrasi. tujuan dilakukannya uji kointegrasi adalah untuk mengkaji stasioneritas residual regresi kointegrasi. 1. cointegrating regression durbin-watson (crdw) test: mengestimasi model berikut: yt = 0 + 1x1t+ 2 x2t +….+ n x nt + ut dimana: yt = variabel dependen observasi t xn = variabel independen observasi t ke-n dari langkah ini, akan diperoleh besarnya nilai crdw yaitu berdasarkan nilai dw (durbin-watson) statistik/hitung. 2. dickey-fuller test mengestimasi nilai residu dari hasil regresi pada persamaan (3.11) untuk mendapatkan nilai df uji kointegrasi, yang ditunjukkan oleh nilai t hitung koefisien ut-1 pada persamaan (3.12). ut = 1 ut-1 + t 3. augmented dickey-fuller test mengestimasi nilai residu dari hasil regresi pada persamaan untuk mendapatkan nilai kausalitas investasi asing ... (eni setyowati dkk) 77 adf uji kointegrasi,yang ditunjukkan oleh nilai t hitung koefisien ut-1 pada persamaan di atas. dari hasil estimasi nilai crdw, df, dan adf statistik di atas,kemudian dibandingkan dengan nilai kritisnya untuk ketiga uji tersebut dalam tabel nilai crdw, df, dan adf untuk uji kointegrasi (engle dan yoo, 1997, 157-158). dimana jika crdw, df dan adf statistik/hitung pada derajat kepercayaan tertentu lebih besar dari nilai kritisnya berarti ho yang menyatakan tidak ada kointegrasi antara variabel, dapat ditolak. atau dengan kata lain variabel-variabel yang ada dalam persamaan tersebut saling berkointegrasi. uji ekonometri 1. uji non autokorelasi autokorelasi terjadi apabila nilai gangguan dalam suatu periode berhubungan dengan nilai gangguan periode sebelumnya. asumsi non autokorelasi berimplikasi bahwa kovarians u i dan u j sama dengan nol. cov(u i u j) = e{[(u i -e(u j)][u i -e(u j)]} = e(u i uj) = 0 untuk i j cara mendeteksi autokorelasi dapat dilakukan dengan membandingkan nilai dw hitung dengan dw tabel. mekanisme uji dw (dw test) adalah sebagai berikut (gujarati, 1995, 420-425). a. lakukan regresi ols dan dapatkan residunya b. hitung nilai d (durbin-watson) c. dapatkan nilai kritis dl dan du d. bila h0 adalah tidak ada serial korelasi positif, maka jika: d<dl, ho ditolak d>d1, ho tidak ditolak dl<d<du, pengujian tidak meyakinkan e. bila h0 adalah tidak ada serial korelasi negatif, maka jika: d>4 dl, ho ditolak d<4 du, ho tidak ditolak 4 du < d < 4 dl, pengujian tidak meyakinkan f. bila ho adalah dua ujung, yaitu bahwa tidak ada serial korelasi positif maupun negatif, maka jika: d<dl, ho ditolak d>4-dl, ho ditolak du<d<4-du, ho tidak ditolak dl<d<du, pengujian tidak meyakinkan 4-du<d<4-dl, pengujian tidak meyakinkan 2. uji homoskedastisitas homoskedastisitas terjadi jika distribusi probabilitas tetap sama dalam semua observasi x dan varians setiap residual sama untuk semua nilai variabel independen. var (ut) = e[ut-e(ut)]2 = e (ut)2 = 2 penyimpangan terhadap asumsi di atas disebut heteroskedastisitas. pengujian heteroskedastisitas dilakukan dengan uji white dan uji breusch-pagan-godfrey (bpg). uji white dilakukan dengan meregresi residual ut2 terhadap semua variabel independen x1, x2, x3, x12, x22, x32, x1x2, x1x3 dan x2, x3. kemudian mengujinya dengan hipotesis = 0. apabila nilai t statistik signifikan, maka dapat disimpulkan bahwa hipotesis terdapat heteroskedastisitas tidak dapat ditolak. uji statistik uji statistik terdiri atas uji signifikasi parameter secara individu (uji t), uji signifikasi parameter secara bersamaan (uji f), dan uji goodness of fit (uji r2). jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 69 88 78 1. uji t uji t dilakukan untuk mengetahui berarti tidaknya suatu variabel independen dalam mempengaruhi variabel dependen. jika nilai t dari parameter yang diestimasi signifikan dibandingkan dengan nilai t tabel, maka variabel tersebut secara statistik berpengaruh terhadap variabel dependen. nilai t hitung dapat dicari dengan rumus (gujarati, 1995, 124). )se(β β-β t i * ii dimana: i = parameter yang diestimasi i* = nilai hipotesis dari i (ho : i = i* ) se(i ) = simpangan baku i hipotetsis nol yang biasa digunakan adalah, ho : i = 0 hipotesis alternatifnya adalah, h1 : i  0 2. uji f uji f dilakukan untuk mengetahui apakah variabel-variabel independen secara keseluruhan signifikan secara statistik dalam mempengaruhi variabel dependen. apabila nilai f hitung lebih besar daripada nilai f tabel, maka variabel-variabel independen secara keseluruhan berpengaruh terhadap variabel dependen. nilai f hitung dirumuskan sebagai berikut. k)-)/(nr(1 1)-/(kr f 2 2   dimana: k = jumlah parameter yang diestimasi termasuk konstanta n = jumlah observasi 3. uji r2 nilai r2 menunjukkan besarnya variasi variabel-variabel independen dalam mempengaruhi variabel dependen. nilai r2 berkisar antara 0 dan 1. semakin besar nilai r2 berarti semakin besar variasi variabel dependen yang dapat dijelaskan oleh variasi variabelvariabel independen. sebaliknya, semakin kecil nilai r2 berarti semakin kecil variasi variabel dependen yang dapat dijelaskan oleh variasi variabel-variabel independen. nilai r2 dihitung dengan (gujarati,1995,207). r 2 = 2 2* y y   dimana: y* = nilai y estimasi y = nilai y aktual hasil dan pembahasan deskripsi data 1. perkembangan penanaman modal asing/ luar negeri di indonesia. pengalaman di negara-negara berkembang yang berpenghasilan rendah sering kali terjadi kesenjangan investasi dan tabungan serta kesenjangan devisa yang dicerminkan dalam defisit anggaran. umumnya untuk menutup kesenjangan tersebut kebanyakan negara berkembang mengundang investor asing. harapan bagi negara berkembang atas peran modal asing yang masuk ke negaranya sebagaimana yang ditulis mudrajad (1997) yaitu: pertama, sumber dana eksternal dapat dimanfaatkan oleh negara berkembang sebagai dasar untuk mempercepat pertumbuhan ekonomi, kedua, pertumbuhan ekonomi yang meningkat perlu diikuti dengan kausalitas investasi asing ... (eni setyowati dkk) 79 struktur ekonomi dan perdagangan; ketiga, modal asing dapat berperan penting dalam mobilisasi dana maupun transformasi struktural; keempat, kebutuhan akan modal asing menjadi menurun setelah perubahan struktural benar-benar terjadi. pemerintah telah mengeluarkan kebijakan deregulasi melalui beberapa paket kebijakan di antaranya: paket juli 1992 (dikeluarkan pada tanggal 7 juli 1992). dan paket oktober (dikeluarkan pada tanggal 23 oktober 1993), dan paket desember 1994 (dikeluarkan pada tanggal 20 desember 1994). paket kebijakan yang baru tersebut dimaksudkan untuk mendorong terciptanya iklim investasi yang lebih menarik. juga untuk meningkatkan efisiensi produksi yang diperlukan untuk mempertahankan daya saing. dalam paket tersebut diberikan lebih banyak kemudahan dan peluang bagi peningkatan efisiensi melalui penyederhaaan prosedur investasi dan perijinan terutama sektor industri, perdagangan, dan jasa. hal ini bisa dilihat dari besarnya jumlah investasi di sektor industri yang menempati urutan pertama dari sembilan sektor yang ada. total industri asing menurut sektor yang besar adalah investasi di sektor industri pengolaan sebesar 16.818,21 juta dollar pada tahun 1995 dan 24.282,30 juta dollar pada tahun 1996. sektor industri pengolahan merupakan salah satu yang menggunakan teknologi tinggi untuk mengolah sumber daya yang ada. sehingga sektor industri pegolahan membutuhkan modal yang besar untuk memenuhi sarana prasarana yang ada untuk mengoptimalkan fungsi dari faktorfaktor produksi yang ada. jika para investor asing bersedia mengucurkan dana yang besar untuk membiayai kebutuhan modal sektor industri pengolahan dibandingkan sektor pertanian yang hanya menerima sektor pertanian yang hanya menerima investasi asing sebesar 1.425,36 juta dollar pada tahun 2000, 1036,85 juta dollar pada tahun 2001 dan 1.354,23 juta dollar pada tahun 2002. sektor pertanian memang memiliki beberpa kelemahan pada lingkungan, sehingga para investor asing kurang berminat pada sektor ini. lain halnya dengan investasi dalam negeri, justru pada mengalami kenaikan dari 106.546,86 milyar rupiah pada tahun 2002. untuk mengetahui perkembangan lebih lanjut jumlah investasi asing di indonesia dapat dilihat dalam tabel 1. 2. perkembangan pertumbuhan ekonomi/ pdb pertumbuhan ekonomi yang lebih tepat diukur dengan menggunakan pertumbuhan pendapatan perkapita menurut adanya tabel 1. perkembangan investasi asing di indonesia (dalam juta dollar) tahun investasi tahun investasi tahun investasi 1980 1081.3 1988 4447.7 1996 29941 1981 747.0 1989 4898.3 1997 33816.1 1982 2456.1 1990 9639.6 1998 13585.5 1983 2436.8 1991 9030.2 1999 10892.2 1984 1121.1 1992 10466.1 2000 15420.0 1985 913.1 1993 8153.8 2001 15043.4 1986 1056.8 1994 27046.4 2002 7162.4 1987 1918.1 1995 39891.6 sumber data: bps, nota keuangan dan apbn jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 69 88 80 kenaikan produk domestik bruto atau pendapatan nasional. agar kita dapat benar-benar memahami bagaimana caranya mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi, maka kita harus memahami pula bagaimana proses pengaruh dari faktor yang mempengaruhinya. pertumbuhan ekonomi merupakan salah satu tujuan penting dari kebijakan ekonomi makro. perekonomian yang tumbuh akan mampu memberikan kesejahteraan ekonomi yang lebih baik bagi penduduk negara yang bersangkutan. istilah pertumbuhan ekonomi harus dibedakan dengan istilah pembangunan ekonomi, karena pertumbuhan ekonomi hanya menyangkut ukuran fisik yang berupa peningkatan produksi barang dan jasa, sedangkan pembangunan ekonomi menyangkut tidak hanya pertambahan dalam produksi fisik barang dan jasa melainkan juga kualitas barang dan jasa maupun kualitas faktor-faktor produksi yang terlibat dalam proses produksi barang dan jasa tersebut (suparmoko, 1990). sekitar tahun 2000-an pdb mengalami kenaikan. tahun 2000 mengalami kenaikan sebesar 4.92 persen, lalu pada tahun berikutnya 2001 mengalami kenaikan lagi sebesar 3.44 persen. pada penelitian akhir yaitu tahun 2002 masih mengalami kenaikan lagi sebesar 3.66 persen, oleh karenanya peneliti ingin mengetahui apakah kenaikan tersebut ada hubungannya dengan penanaman modal asing di indonesia. analisis data analisis data berdasarkan perilaku data time series dan model dinamis engle granger error correction model. data yang digunakan periode tahun 1980 – 2002. 1. uji akar unit uji akar unit merupakan salah satu bentuk dari analisis perilaku data yang dipakai untuk mengetahui stasionaritas data, sehingga dapat diketahui ada tidaknya hubungan jangka panjang antara variabel independen dengan variabel dependen. pengujian terhadap stasionaritas data pada penelitian ini menggunakan uji akar unit yang dikembangkan oleh dickey dan fuller. hasil estimasi tersebut disajikan dalam beberapa tabel 2. dari tabel 2 dan tabel 3 diketahui bahwa pengujian akar unit baik dengan df test maupun adf test, semua variabel yang diuji stasioner atau memiliki akar unit. penentuan tingkat signifikansi dengan membandingkan nilai parameter estimasi  dengan mackinnon critical value 5 persen. apabila nilai parameter estimasi  lebih dari nilai kritisnya, maka variabel tersebut tidak memiliki akar unit atau telah stasioner. dengan menggunakan variabel yang terintegrasi pada derajat pertama dan terdapat kombinasi linear antara variabel-variabel tersebut, maka residualnya akan stasioner. keadaan ini merupakan indikasi adanya hubungan keseimbangan jangka panjang. hal ini sejalan dengan granger representation theorem mengenai model koreksi kesalahan. apabila derajat kombinasi linear dari variabel-variabel tersebut stasioner, maka dapat dikatakan bahwa sekelompok variabel tersebut berkointegrasi. 2. estimasi model koreksi kesalahan englegranger (engle-granger error correction model) hasil estimasi engle-granger menunjukkan bahwa model yang digunakan berhasil menjelaskan faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi investasi dalam negeri. indikasi awal dari kesahihan penggunaan engle-granger ecm tersebut dapat dilihat dari signifikannya koefisien error correction term dengan tanda negatif seperti yang diharapkan. kausalitas investasi asing ... (eni setyowati dkk) 81 a. estimasi jangka panjang untuk mengamati pengaruh jangka panjang antara variabel pma yang diamati terhadap pdb dapat dilihat dari persamaan regresinya. berikut ini hasil estimasi model statisnya (dalam kurung menunjukkan nilai t hitung). estimasi jangka panjang model koreksi kesalahan engle granger (eg-ecm) lnpdb = 10.43260 + 0.243308*lnpma (46.89298) (9.580465) r2 = 0.813806 dw stat = 0.784100 f stat = 91.78532 catatan: data diolah. angka dalam kurung adalah besaran t hitung. dari hasil tersebut dapat dikemukakan bahwa dalam jangka panjang pertumbuhan ekonomi dipengaruhi oleh investasi asing. besarnya pengaruh jangka panjang dari variabel investasi asing adalah 0.243308. 1) uji statistik (a) uji t uji t bertujuan melihat signifikasi pengaruh variabel independen terhadap variabel dependen secara individual. parameter suatu variabel dikatakan mempunyai pengaruh yang signifikan jika nilai t hitung lebih besar dari nilai t tabel, dan sebaliknya. tabel 2. uji akar unit dengan df & adf test variabel pdb lag / model aic dicky fuller tstatistik mackinnon critical value hasil 0 mod 1 22.60144 -2.726262 1% -2.6819 5% -1.9583 10% -1.6242 0 mod 2 22.48439 -3.636404 1% -3.7856 5% -3.0114 10% -2.6457 aic minimum 0 mod 3 22.57940 -3.539656 1% -4.4691 5% -3.6454 10% -3.2602 1 mod 1 22.75410 -2.119085 1% -2.6889 5% -1.9592 10% -1.6246 1 mod 2 22.58461 -3.284909 1% -3.8067 5% -3.0199 10% -2.6502 aic minimum 1 mod 3 22.67937 -3.206686 1% -4.5000 5% -3.6591 10% -3.2677 catatan: data hasil olahan, dimana stasioner hanya pada adf lag 1 saja jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 69 88 82 dengan menggunakan  = 5% (dua sisi) dan dengan derajat kebebasan 23 diperoleh nilai t tabel sebesar 2.069. dari hasil estimasi di atas nilai t hitung dibandingkan dengan nilai t tabel, maka dapat diketahui bahwa secara individual variabel investasi asing mempunyai pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. tabel 3. uji akar unit dengan df & adf test variabel pma lag / model aic dicky fuller t-statistik mackinnon critical value hasil 0 mod 1 20.77529 -4.368703 1% -2.6819 5% -1.9583 10% -1.6242 aic minimum 0 mod 2 20.86883 -4.260384 1% -3.7856 5% -3.0114 10% -2.6457 0 mod 3 20.93390 -4.252395 1% -4.4691 5% -3.6454 10% -3.2602 1 mod 1 20.92378 -3.080142 1% -2.6889 5% -1.9592 10% -1.6246 aic minimum 1 mod 2 21.02247 -2.987866 1% -3.8067 5% -3.0199 10% -2.6502 1 mod 3 21.09194 -3.003009 1% -4.5000 5% -3.6591 10% -3.2677 2 mod 1 21.08407 -2.547921 1% -2.6968 5% -1.9602 10% -1.6251 aic minimum 2 mod 2 21.18744 -2.466959 1% -3.8304 5% -3.0294 10% -2.6552 2 mod 3 21.25018 -2.531302 1% -4.5348 5% -3.6746 10% -3.2762 3 mod 1 21.21541 -2.509188 1% -2.7057 5% -1.9614 10% -1.6257 aic minimum 3 mod 2 21.32039 -2.436859 1% -3.8572 5% -3.0400 10% -2.6608 3 mod 3 21.35239 -2.591830 1% -4.5743 5% -3.6920 10% -3.2856 catatan: data hasil olahan keterangan variabel ln = logaritma natural pdbt = produk domestik bruto pmat = penanaman modal asing kausalitas investasi asing ... (eni setyowati dkk) 83 (b) uji f selanjutnya dilakukan uji f untuk melihat apakah variabel independen secara bersama-sama mempunyai pengaruh signifikan terhadap variabel dependen. jika nilai f hitung lebih dari nilai f tabel berarti bahwa secara bersama-sama (keseluruhan) variabel-variabel yang terdapat dalam model berpengaruh signifikan terhadap variabel dependennya. dengan menggunakan  = 5% dan derajat kebebasan (21;1) diperoleh nilai f tabel sebesar 4.33 sementara nilai f hitung untuk model jangka panjang adalah 91.78532. dengan demikian dapat disimpulkan bahwa dalam model tersebut, variabel investasi asing mempunyai pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi indonesia. (c) uji r2 nilai r2 menunjukkan bahwa variasi yang terjadi dalam variabel dependen dapat dijelaskan oleh variasi variabel-variabel independen. hasil estimasi jangka panjang dengan ols menunjukkan bahwa r2 dari model tersebut adalah 0.813806 yang menyatakan bahwa 81.38 persen variasi variabel dependen dapat dijelaskan oleh variasi variabel independennya dan sisanya dapat dijelaskan oleh variabel lainnya di luar model. b. estimasi jangka pendek dalam kaitannya dengan pengamatan terhadap dinamika jangka pendek, dilakukan estimasi terhadap model koreksi kesalahan. untuk mengetahui banyaknya lag yang digunakan dalam estimasi jangka pendek ini digunakan metode general-to-specific yang dikembangkan oleh hendry atau biasa disebut hendry’s general-to-specific modeling (hgsm). dengan menggunakan data yang tersedia, banyaknya lag maksimum yang dapat dimasukkan dalam model adalah 2. kemudian dengan melakukan pengujian terhadap masing-masing lag tersebut, lag yang tidak signifikan dapat diabaikan dan tidak dimasukkan dalam estimasi. berikut ini adalah hasil estimasi eg-ecm. estimasi jangka pendek model koreksi kesalahan engle granger (eg-ecm) dlnpdb = 0.039379 + 0.036023**dlnpma – (4.332633) (2.218186) 0.136135***ect(-1) (-1.818944) r 2 = 0.260448 dw stat = 1.797713 f stat = 3.345618 catatan: data diolah. angka dalam kurung menunjukkan nilai t hitung selanjutnya setelah dilakukan pengujian terhadap eg-ecm, dapat dikemukakan bahwa dalam jangka pendek, variabelvariabel yang dipilih untuk mengamati perilaku pertumbuhan ekonomi indonesia seluruhnya signifikan secara statistik. berarti dalam jangka pendek, variabel dlnpmat-1 mempunyai pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi indonesia. koefisien error correction term sebesar 0.136135 menunjukkan bahwa kecepatan penyesuaian (speed of adjustment) pertumbuhan ekonomi indonesia adalah 13.61 persen per tahun. c. uji ekonometri 1) uji non autokorelasi uji dw dilakukan untuk menguji adanya autokorelasi pada derajat pertama. pengujian dilakukan dengan membandingkan nilai statistik dw hitung dengan dwtabel. dari hasil estimasi jangka jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 69 88 84 pendek diperoleh nilai dw hitung sebesar 1.797713 sedangkan nilai dl = 1.15 dan du = 1.54 pada  = 0.05. pengujian dilakukan dengan dua sisi diketahui bahwa nilai dw hitung tersebut berada pada daerah tidak ada autokorelasi positif ataupun negatif yang artinya tidak ada kesimpulan. 2) uji homoskedastisitas dengan uji breusch-godfrey, hasil estimasi jangka pendek menunjukkan bahwa 2 hitung adalah sebesar 11.309584, sedangkan 2 tabel dengan  = 0.05 sebesar 9.48773. dengan membandingkan 2 hitung dan 2 tabel maka dapat disimpulkan bahwa dalam estimasi jangka pendek ini terdapat heteroskedastisitas. d. uji statistik 1) uji t dengan menggunakan  = 5% (dua sisi) dan dengan derajat kebebasan 22 diperoleh nilai t tabel untuk variable dlnpma sebesar 2.074 sedangkan t hitung 2.218186 lalu variable ect1 t table sebesar 1.717 pada  = 10% sedangkan t hitung 1.818944 dan dari hasil estimasi di atas, nilai t hitung dibandingkan dengan nilai t tabel, maka dapat diketahui bahwa secara individual variabel dlnpma dan ect1 mempunyai pengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi indonesia. 2) uji f dengan menggunakan =10% dan derajat kebebasan (2,19) diperoleh nilai f tabel sebesar 2.61. sementara nilai f hitung untuk model jangka pendek adalah 3.345618. dengan demikian dapat disimpulkan bahwa dalam model tersebut, variabel-variabel independen secara keseluruhan mempunyai pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi indonesia. 3) uji r2 hasil estimasi jangka pendek dengan ols menunjukkan bahwa r2 dari model tersebut adalah 0.260448 yang menyatakan bahwa 26.04 persen variabel dependen dapat dijelaskan oleh variasi variabel independennya. e. estimasi jangka panjang untuk mengamati pengaruh jangka panjang antara variabel pdb yang diamati terhadap pma dapat dilihat dari persamaan regresinya. berikut ini hasil estimasi model statisnya (dalam kurung menunjukkan nilai t hitung). estimasi jangka panjang model koreksi kesalahan engle granger (eg-ecm) lnpma = -33.27946 + 3.344750*lnpdb (-7.597084) (9.580465) r2 = 0.813806 dw stat = 0.953095 f stat = 91.78532 catatan: data diolah. angka dalam kurung adalah besaran t hitung. dari hasil tersebut dapat dikemukakan bahwa dalam jangka panjang investasi asing dipengaruhi oleh pertumbuhan ekonomi. besarnya pengaruh jangka panjang dari variabel pertumbuhan ekonomi adalah 3.344. 1) uji statistik (a) uji t uji t bertujuan melihat signifikasi pengaruh variabel independen terhadap variabel dependen secara individual. parameter suatu variabel dikatakan mempunyai pengaruh yang signifikan kausalitas investasi asing ... (eni setyowati dkk) 85 jika nilai t hitung lebih besar dari nilai t tabel, dan sebaliknya. dengan menggunakan  = 5% (dua sisi) dan dengan derajat kebebasan 23 diperoleh nilai t tabel sebesar 1.711 sedangkan t hitung 9.580465. dari hasil estimasi di atas nilai t hitung dibandingkan dengan nilai t tabel, maka dapat diketahui bahwa secara individual variabel pertumbuhan ekonomi mempunyai pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap investasi asing. (b) uji f selanjutnya dilakukan uji f untuk melihat apakah variabel independen secara bersama-sama mempunyai pengaruh signifikan terhadap variabel dependen. jika nilai f hitung lebih dari nilai f tabel berarti bahwa secara bersama-sama (keseluruhan) variabel-variabel yang terdapat dalam model berpengaruh signifikan terhadap variabel dependennya. dengan menggunakan  = 5% dan derajat kebebasan (21;1) diperoleh nilai f tabel sebesar 4.33 sementara nilai f hitung untuk model jangka panjang adalah 91.78532. dengan demikian dapat disimpulkan bahwa dalam model tersebut, variabel pertumbuhan ekonomi mempunyai pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap investasi asing. (c) uji r2 nilai r2 menunjukkan bahwa variasi yang terjadi dalam variabel dependen dapat dijelaskan oleh variasi variabel-variabel independen. hasil estimasi jangka panjang dengan ols menunjukkan bahwa r2 dari model tersebut adalah 0.813806 yang menyatakan bahwa 81.38 persen variasi variabel dependen dapat dijelaskan oleh variasi variabel independennya dan sisanya dapat dijelaskan oleh variabel lainnya di luar model. f. estimasi jangka pendek dalam kaitannya dengan pengamatan terhadap dinamika jangka pendek, dilakukan estimasi terhadap model koreksi kesalahan. untuk mengetahui banyaknya lag yang digunakan dalam estimasi jangka pendek ini digunakan metode general-to-specific yang dikembangkan oleh hendry atau biasa disebut hendry’s general-to-specific modeling (hgsm). dengan menggunakan data yang tersedia, banyaknya lag maksimum yang dapat dimasukkan dalam model adalah 2. kemudian dengan melakukan pengujian terhadap masing-masing lag tersebut, lag yang tidak signifikan dapat diabaikan dan tidak dimasukkan dalam estimasi. berikut ini adalah hasil estimasi eg-ecm. estimasi jangka pendek model koreksi kesalahan engle granger (eg-ecm) dlnpma = -0.118243 + 5.153654**dlnpdb – (-0.776006) (2.127471) 0.485015**ect2 (-2.116684) r 2 = 0.297256 dw stat = 1.681603 f stat = 4.020355 catatan: data diolah. angka dalam kurung menunjukkan nilai t hitung. selanjutnya setelah dilakukan pengujian terhadap eg-ecm, dapat dikemukakan bahwa dalam jangka pendek, variabel-variabel yang dipilih untuk mengamati perilaku investasi asing seluruhnya signifikan secara statistik. berarti dalam jangka pendek, variabel jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 69 88 86 dlnpdb mempunyai pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap investasi asing. koefisien error correction term sebesar -0.485015 menunjukkan bahwa kecepatan penyesuaian (speed of adjustment) pertumbuhan ekonomi indonesia adalah 48.5 persen per tahun. g. uji ekonometri 1) uji non autokorelasi uji dw dilakukan untuk menguji adanya autokorelasi pada derajat pertama. pengujian dilakukan dengan membandingkan nilai statistik dw hitung dengan dw tabel. dari hasil estimasi jangka pendek diperoleh nilai dw hitung sebesar 1.681603 sedangkan nilai dl = 1.15 dan du = 1.54 pada  = 0.05. pengujian dilakukan dengan dua sisi diketahui bahwa nilai dw hitung tersebut berada pada daerah tidak ada autokorelasi positif ataupun negatif yang artinya tidak ada kesimpulan. 2) uji homoskedastisitas dengan uji breusch-godfrey, hasil estimasi jangka pendek menunjukkan bahwa 2 hitung adalah sebesar 2.540597, sedangkan 2 tabel dengan =0.05 sebesar 9.48773. dengan membandingkan 2 hitung dan 2 tabel maka dapat disimpulkan bahwa dalam estimasi jangka pendek ini tidak terdapat heteroskedastisitas. h. uji statistik 1) uji t dengan menggunakan  = 5% (dua sisi) dan dengan derajat kebebasan 22 diperoleh nilai t tabel untuk variable dlnpdb sebesar 2.074 sedangkan t hitung 2.127471 lalu variabel ect1 t tabel sebesar 2.074 pada  = 5% sedangkan t hitung -2.116684 dan dari hasil estimasi di atas, nilai t hitung dibandingkan dengan nilai t tabel, maka dapat diketahui bahwa secara individual variabel dlnpma dan ect1 mempunyai pengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi indonesia. 2) uji f dengan menggunakan  = 5% dan derajat kebebasan (2,19) diperoleh nilai f tabel sebesar 3.52. sementara nilai f hitung untuk model jangka pendek adalah 4.020355. dengan demikian dapat disimpulkan bahwa dalam model tersebut, variabel-variabel independen secara keseluruhan mempunyai pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi indonesia. 3) uji r2 hasil estimasi jangka pendek dengan ols menunjukkan bahwa r2 dari model tersebut adalah 0.297356 yang menyatakan bahwa 29.74 persen variabel dependen dapat dijelaskan oleh variasi variabel independennya sedangkan sisanya dipengaruhi oleh variabel lainnya di luar model yang telah diteliti. intrepretasi ekonomi 1. analisis jangka pendek untuk analisis jangka pendek variabel dlnpma mempunyai pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi indonesia dengan koefisien positif sebesar 0.036023. berarti setiap kenaikan variabel investasi asing tahun sebelumnya sebesar 1 persen akan menyebabkan pertumbuhan ekonomi naik sebesar 0.036023 persen. sebaliknya variabel dlnpdb juga mempunyai pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap investasi asing dengan koefisien positif sebesar 5.153654. kausalitas investasi asing ... (eni setyowati dkk) 87 berarti setiap kenaikan variabel pdb tahun sebelumnya 1 persen akan menyebabkan investasi asing naik sebesar 5.153654 persen. 2. analisis jangka panjang untuk analisis jangka panjang variabel investasi asing mempunyai pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi indonesia dengan koefisien positif sebesar 0.243308. berarti setiap kenaikan variabel investasi asing sebesar 1 persen akan menyebabkan pertumbuhan ekonomi indonesia naik sebesar 0.243308 persen. begitu juga sebaliknya variabel dlnpdb mempunyai pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap investasi asing dengan koefisien positif pula sebesar 3.344750. berarti setiap kenaikan pdb sebesar 1 persen maka akan menyebabkan investasi asing naik sebesar 3.344750 persen. kesimpulan dalam penelitian ini dimaksudkan untuk mengkaji pengaruh variabel investasi asing terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi indonesia dan juga sebalikknya. model yang dipakai dalam penelitian ini adalah model koreksi kesalahan engle-granger (eg-ecm). dari hasil analisis data yang telah dilakukan, dapat diambil kesimpulan sebagai berikut. 1. dengan melihat nilai statistik dari error correction term (ect1) sebesar -0.136135 dan secara statistik signifikan pada derajat keyakinan sebesar 10 persen, sedangkan pada nilai statistik dari error correction term (ect2) sebesar -0.485015 dan secara statistik signifikan pada derajat keyakinan sebesar 5 persen hal ini berarti bahwa spesifikasi model koreksi kesalahan e-g yang digunakan menunjukkan hubungan dua arah antara variabel pdb dan pma bahwa variabelvariabel yang digunakan merupakan himpunan variabel yang berkointegrasi dan juga bisa menjelaskan hubungan kausalitas dari variabel yang sedang diuji baik dalam jangka pendek maupun dalam jangka panjang. 2. hasil estimasi ols dengan model koreksi kesalahan e-g menunjukkan bahwa variabel yang berpengaruh dan signifikan secara statistik dalam jangka pendek adalah variabel investasi asing berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi indonesia, begitu juga sebaliknya variabel pertumbuhan ekonomi berpengaruh signifikan terhadap investasi asing di indonesia. 3. hasil estimasi jangka panjang menunjukkan bahwa variabel yang berpengaruh dan signifikan secara statistik adalah variabel investasi asing berpengaruh positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, sebaliknya pertumbuhan ekonomi juga berpengaruh positif terhadap investasi asing di indonesia. berdasarkan hasil yang diperoleh dari penelitian dan kesimpulan yang dikemukakan di atas, ada beberapa hal yang perlu mendapat perhatian sehubungan dengan perkembangan penanaman modal asing di indonesia, antara lain: 1. pemerintah hendaknya mampu mendorong investor asing untuk melaksanakan investasi serta menciptakan iklim yang kondusif bagi penanaman modal dalam negeri karena besarnya investasi tahun sekarang sangat berpengaruh untuk masa-masa yang akan datang. 2. variabel investasi asing mempunyai pengaruh yang signifikan dalam jangka panjang, oleh karena itu pemerintah harus bisa menjaga kestabilan pertumbuhan ekonomi kita supaya tidak terjadi jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 69 88 88 pelarian modal, yang mengakibatkan pdb indonesia turun. ucapan terima kasih terimakasih kepada lppm ums yang sudah membiayai penelitian ini dan tri murni, se yang sudah membantu mencari data dan analisis data. daftar pustaka dickey, david and wayne a. ful1ler. 1979. “distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root”. journal of the american statistical association. dickey, david. 1981. “likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root”. econometrica. vol.49. engel, r.f. and c.w. j granger. 1987. “cointegration and error correction representation, estimation, and testing”. econometrica. 251-276. gujarati, damodar n. 1995. basic econometrics. third edition. mcgraw-hill book co. singapore. harris, richard, 1995. using cointegration analysis in econometrics modelling. new jersey: prentice hall/harvester wheatsheaf. jhingan, m.l., 1993. ekonomi pembangunan dan perencanaan. jakarta: raja grafindo persada. kuncoro, mudrajad, 1999. ekonomi pembangunan. yogyakarta: upp amp ypkn. maddala, g.s. 2001. introduction’s to econometric. 3rd edition. england: john wiley & sons. muhaimin, 2006. “hubungan kausalitas antara inflasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi di kota palembang”. jurnal kajian ekonomi vol.5 no. 1 juni program pascasarjana-universitas sriwijaya nopirin. 1996. ekonomi moneter. yogyakarta: bpfe ugm. purnomo, didit. 2004. “kausalitas suku bunga domestik dengan tingkat inflasi di indonesia”. jurnal ekonomi pembangunan vol. 5 no.1. surakarta: bppe fe ums. setyowati, eni, 2003. “uji kausalitas granger: inflasi dan pengangguran di indonesia”. jurnal ekonomi pembangunan vol. 4 no.1. surakarta: bppe fe ums. sukirno, sadono, 1979. ekonomi pembangunan. yogyakarta: bpfe ugm. suparmoko, m. 1996. ekonomi makro. yogyakarta: bpfe ugm. suparmoko, m. irawan, 1992. ekonomi pembangunan. yogyakarta: bpfe ugm. susanti, prayoga. 1996. analisis perhitungan pendapatan nasional. jakarta: liberty. sutikno, dan prapto yuwono. 2000. “kausalitas uang beredar dan inflasi”. dian ekonomi jurnal ekonomi dan bisnis vol.vi. no.2. salatiga: fe uksw. tandika, dikdik. 1999. “tinjauan investasi asing langsung di cina sebagai upaya meningkatkan investasi di indonesia”. jurnal kinerja vol.1. no.1. bandung: fe unisba. thomas, r.l. 1997. modern econometrics: an introduction. london: addison-wesley longman. widodo, suseno triyanto. 1990. indikator ekonomi dasar perhitungan perekonomian indonesia. yogyakarta: kanisius. microsoft word 02-anif jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015, hlm.132-145 determinan inflasi dari sisi supply (cost-push inflation) di indonesia muhammad anif afandi pusat pengembangan ekonomi, universitasmuhammadiyah yogyakarta, jl. lingkar selatan, bantul, yogyakarta 55183, indonesia, phone:+62 274 387656 e-mail korespondensi: afandianif@gmail.com naskah diterima: juli 2014; disetujui september 2015 abstract: this research aims to analyze the determinants of inflation from supply side (costpush inflation) in indonesia. the dependent variable used is the cpi inflation while, the independent variable in the form of fuel prices, the exchange rate of rupiah, nominal wages, and the bi rate. the data used in this research is a monthly for the period 2008:1-2014:12 the sdds derived from bi and statistics of ministry of energy and mineral resources. the estimation tool used in this research is the vector error correction model (vecm) using the help of eviews 7.0.0.1. estimation results show that in the short term the variable cpi inflation itself, fuel prices, the exchange rate of the rupiah, and the nominal wage effect significantly to cpi inflation in indonesia. while, the bi rate, variable have no effect significantly to cpi inflation. in the long term, the results of the estimation shows that the variable fuel prices, the exchange rate of the rupiah, and the bi rate effect significantly to cpi inflation. while the nominal wage, the variable have no effect significantly to cpi inflation in the long run. vecm estimation results in this research also generates important analysis, namely the irf (impulse response function) and vdc (variance decomposition). keywords: cost-push inflation; impulse response function; variance decomposition; vecm jel classification: e31, p24, p44 abstrak: studi ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis determinan inflasi dari sisi supply (cost-push inflation) di indonesia. variabel dependen yang digunakan adalah inflasi ihk sedangkan, variabel independen berupa harga bbm, nilai tukar rupiah, upah nominal, dan bi rate. data yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah bulanan selama periode 2008:1-2014:12 yang bersumber dari sdds bi dan statisik harga bbm kementrian esdm. alat estimasi yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah vector error correction model (vecm) menggunakan bantuan eviews 7.0.0.1. hasil estimasi menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka pendek variabel inflasi ihk itu sendiri, harga bbm, nilai tukar rupiah, dan upah nominal berpengaruh signifikan terhadap inflasi ihk di indonesia. sedangkan, variabel bi rate tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap inflasi ihk. dalam jangka panjang, hasil estimasi menunjukkan bahwa variabel harga bbm, nilai tukar rupiah, dan bi rate berpengatuh signifikan terhadap inflasi ihk. sedangkan, variabel upah nominal tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap inflasi ihk dalam jangka panjang. hasil estimasi vecm dalam studi ini juga menghasilkan analisis penting, yaitu irf (impulse response function) dan vdc (variance decomposition). kata kunci: cost-push inflation; impulse response function; variance decomposition; vecm klasifikasi jel: e31, p24, p44 doi: 10.18196/jesp.2015.0047.132-145 determinan inflasi dari sisi supply ... (muhammad anif afandi) 133 pendahuluan negara berkembang pada umumnya memiliki struktur perekonomian yang masih bercorak agraris dan cenderung memiliki permasalahan pada kestabilan kegiatan perekonomian (langi dkk., 2014). indonesia yang termasuk sebagai negara berkembang pada umumnya akan menjaga kestabilan perekonomiannya yang dimaksud untuk menghindarkan dari penyakit-penyakit ekonomi klasik seperti pengangguran dan inflasi. dalam kacamata awam, ukuran pertumbuhan ekonomi yang stabil dalam suatu negara dapat dilihat pada rendahnya angka pengangguran dan stabilnya tingkat inflasi. menurut bank indonesia (2014), perkembangan inflasi ihk (indeks harga konsumen) dalam satu dekade terakhir lebih dipengaruhi oleh administered price dan volatile food. di sisi lain, pergerakan inflasi inti justru mengalami penurunan sebesar 7-8 persen menjadi sekitar 4 persen. dengan kata lain, angka inflasi ihk di indonesia lebih disebabkan oleh faktor-faktor non makro ekonomi yang bersumber dari sisi supply yang membutuhkan penanganan khusus. selain itu, dengan dinaikkannya harga bbm (bahan bakar minyak) pada tahun 2002, 2005, 2008, dan 2013, juga menjadi penyumbang inflasi yang cukup tinggi pada tahun-tahun tersebut (bank indonesia, 2014). penyebab inflasi bulan oktober-desember 2014, yaitu kenaikan harga bbm (bahan bakar minyak) serta pelemahan nilai tukar rupiah. tingkat inflasi pada bulan november dan desember 2014 meningkat menjadi 1,50 persen dan 2,46 persen. secara keseluruhan, nilai inflasi pada tahun 2014 mencapai 8,4 persen yoy yang disumbang oleh kenaikan harga yang diatur oleh pemerintah sebesar 1,22 persen, kenaikan harga yang bergejolak sebesar 0,64 persen, inflasi inti sebesar 0,60 persen, dan inflasi rata-rata satu tahun pada bulan desember 2014 mencapai 6,6 persen (bappenas, 2015). cost-push inflation adalah jenis inflasi ya ng terjadi akibat perubahan pada penawaran agregat (stiglitz, 1996). dengan kata lain, cost-push inflation dapat terjadi akibat kenaikan biaya produksi yang menyeluruh pada perusahaan. selain itu, menurut samuelson (1985), inflasi desakan biaya dapat terjadi apabila permintaan terhadap bahan baku lebih besar daripada penawarannya. kenaikan permintaan sesuai hukumnya akan menaikkan harga, sehingga produsen dalam hal ini akan menetapkan harga jual output produksinya dengan lebih tinggi. kenaikan harga output inilah yang nantinya akan ditanggung oleh konsumen. kurva penawaran agregat dalam jangka pendek di atas dapat mengilustrasikan bahwa pada mulanya titik keseimbangan perekonomian berada pada titik e0 yang menunjukkan pendapatan nasional pada y0 dan tingkat harga pada p0. misalnya, apabila terjadi perubahan kondisi perekonomian di dalam negeri, yaitu kenaikan upah tenaga kerja, maka akan menye sumber: bank indonesia, 2014 gambar 1. karakteristik inflasi di indonesia periode januari 2001-januari 2014 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015: 132-145 134 babkan kurva sras0 berubah menjadi sras1. sumber: joseph e. stiglitz, 1996. gambar 2. ilustrasi inflasi desakan biaya (cost-push inflation) dengan demikian, tercipta keseimbangan perekonomian yang baru, yaitu berada pada titik e1 dan pendapatan nasional menurun menjadi y1 serta tingkat harga meningkat menjadi p1 (stiglitz, 1996). pengendalian inflasi sangat penting bagi suatu negara khususnya indonesia. berkaca pada kilas balik perekonomian indonesia tahun 2008 di mana, pada tahun tersebut tingkat inflasi pada bulan januari-februari 2008 mencapai 2,44 persen yang merupakan tingkat inflasi tertinggi pada tahun 2008. secara kumulatif, tingkat inflasi pada tahun 2008 mencapai 7,4 persen yang sudah tergolong dalam moderate inflation yang mengarah pada hyper-inflation apabila tidak dijaga. menurut tambunan (2012), inflasi pada tahun 2008 disebabkan oleh kenaikan administered price dalam negeri, yaitu berupa kenaikan harga bbm (bahan bakar minyak) dan kenaikan harga pangan di pasar global. selain itu, pada tahun 2008-2009 juga terjadi krisis global yang bermula pada krisis keuangan di amerika serikat yang merembet ke berbagai negara lain seperti jepang dan negara-negara eropa. krisis tersebut menyebabkan resesi ekonomi dunia dengan penurunan permintaan ekspor yang juga berdampak pada penurunan pertumbuhan ekonomi indonesia. studi ini dilakukan untuk mengetahui pengaruh perubahan harga bbm (premium) dalam negeri, perubahan nilai tukar rupiah/ dollar as, perubahan upah nominal buruh industri manufaktur di bawah mandur, dan perubahan bi rate terhadap cost-push inflation di indonesia dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang pada periode januari 2008-desember 2014 dengan menggunakan metode vector error correction model (vecm). vector error correction model (vecm) merupakan model turunan dari vector autoregression (var). basuki & yuliadi (2015), menjelaskan bahwa “vecm sering disebut sebagai desain var bagi series non stasioner yang memiliki hubungan kointegrasi”. perbedaan antara var dengan vecm adalah dalam estimasi vecm terdapat hubungan kointegrasi antara masing-masing variabel yang menunjukkan hubungan dalam jangka panjang. kemudian, alasan pemilihan model var sebagai model dalam studi ini bersandar pada basuki & yuliadi (2015), yang menjelaskan bahwa ada tiga pertimbangan utama dalam pemilihan model var, yaitu sebagai berikut: 1) metode regresi linier yang banyak digunakan banyak mengalami kritikan. metode regresi linier dianggap sebagai metode yang sangat lemah, sehingga tidak memberikan hasil yang akurat. 2) data yang digunakan dalam studi ini merupakan data runtut waktu (time series) yang menggambarkan fluktuasi ekonomi. 3) melalui metode var, dapat diketahui seberapa lag yang dibutuhkan dalam pengaruh hubungan masing-masing variabel endogen. cost-push inflation merupakan jenis inflasi yang berbahaya karena membutuhkan penanganan khusus dan penyebab dari inflasi tersebut bukan berasal dari faktor-faktor makro ekonomi yang dapat dikendalikan melalui kebijakan moneter semata, melainkan faktorfaktor guncangan eksternal (bank indonesia, 2014). berkenaan dengan hal tersebut, maka perlu dilakukan studi lebih lanjut yang dimaksud untuk mengontrol variabel-variabel yang mempengaruhi inflasi dari sisi supply agar tercipta kestabilan ekonomi yang di cita-citakan. selain itu, dengan pengontrolan variabel-variabel yang mempengaruhi inflasi tersebut, dapat membantu kerja dari tpi (tim pengendalian inflasi) yang di bentuk pada tahun 2005 oleh bank indonesia dan pemerintah untuk mempermudah dalam koordinasi pengendalian inflasi di indonesia hingga tingkat daerah (bank indonesia, 2014). determinan inflasi dari sisi supply ... (muhammad anif afandi) 135 metode penelitian jenis dan sumber data jenis data yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah data runtut waktu (time series) dalam bentuk data sekunder dan tergolong dalam jenis data kuantitatif dengan jenis data rasio. data runtut waktu (time series) yang dimaksud dalam studi ini adalah data pada periode januari 2008-desember 2014 atau data dengan edisi bulanan (monthly) yang diperoleh dari sdds (special data dissemination standard) bank indonesia dan statistik harga bbm dalam negeri yang diperoleh dari kementrian esdm. objek penelitian ini adalah variabel inflasi ihk, harga bbm jenis premium, kurs jual rupiah terhadap dollar as, upah nominal buruh industri manufaktur di bawah mandor, dan bi rate. periode penelitian dilakukan pada januari 2008-desember 2014. alat analisis analisis determinan inflasi dari sisi supply (cost-push inflation) di indonesia pendekatan vector error correction model (vecm) diduga dipengaruhi oleh variabel-variabel sebagai berikut: 1) harga bbm (bahan bakar minyak) dengan satuan rupiah (rp), yaitu daftar harga bbm (bahan bakar minyak) jenis premium yang di subsidi oleh pemerintah pada periode januari 2008-desember 2014. 2) kurs jual rupiah terhadap dolar as dengan satuan rupiah/dollar as, yaitu nilai tukar nominal rupiah apabila ditukarkan per 1 dolar as pada periode januari 2008-desember 2014. 3) upah nominal buruh industri manufaktur di bawah mandor dengan satuan ribu rupiah (rp), yaitu upah cash nominal yang dibayarkan oleh industri manufaktur di indonesia kepada para buruh di bawah mandor pada periode januari 2008-desember 2014. 4) bi rate dengan satuan persen (%), yaitu suku bunga kebijakan yang dikeluarkan oleh bank indonesia sebagai instrumen kebijakan moneter pada periode januari 2008-desember 2014. sebelum melakukan estimasi vector error correction model (vecm), maka data harus melalui tahapan uji stasioneritas data, penentuan panjang lag optimum, uji kointegrasi, pengujian stabilitas model, dan uji kausalitas granger. setelah memenuhi hipotesis yang disyaratkan, maka baru dapat dilakukan pengujian vector error correction model (vecm). kemudian, yang dimaksud sebagai vector error correction model (vecm) adalah model turunan dari var (vector autoregression) atau var yang terestriksi. kemudian, persamaan yang digunakan untuk mengkaji determinan inflasi dari sisi supply (cost-push inflation) di indonesia, estimasi vecm yang digunakan adalah sebagai berikut: hubungan jangka pendek: ∆d(dcpi)t = ɑ0 + λect-1 + ∑ ɑ1∆d(dbbm)t-f + ∑ ɑ2∆d(der)t-f + ∑ ɑ3∆d(dnwage)t-f + ∑ ɑ4∆d(dbirate)t-f + ut 1) sedangkan, hubungan jangka panjang, persamaan yang digunakan adalah sebagai berikut: d(dcpi)t = ɑ0 + ɑ1d(dbbm)t + ɑ2d(der)t + ɑ3d(dnwage)t + ɑ4d(birate)t + ut 2) dimana: dcpi adalah diferensi inflasi ihk (indeks harga konsumen); dbbm adalah diferensi harga bbm (bahan bakar minyak); der adalah diferensi kurs jual rupiah terhadap dollar as; dnwage adalah diferensi upah nominal buruh di bawah mandor industri manufaktur; dbirate adalah diferensi suku bunga kebijakan bi rate; t adalah period ke-t; ɑ1, ɑ2, ɑ3, ɑ4 adalah koefisien variabel; ɑ0 adalah konstanta; ut adalah variabel error; λ adalah koefisien kecepatan penyesuaian; j adalah panjang lag dalam model; ect-1 adalah error correction term. alat estimasi yang digunakan dalam pengujian estimasi vecm di atas adalah dengan menggunakan bantuan perangkat lunak eviews versi 7.0.0.1 sedangkan, untuk pembuatan tabel untuk keperluan impor data digunakan microsoft excel 2007. menurut winarno (2015), untuk mengetahui pengaruh variabel independen terhadap variabel dependennya, maka dapat dilakukan dengan membandingkan nilai t-statistik parsial dengan nilai pada tabel (2,02108). hipotesis yang digunakan, jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015: 132-145 136 yaitu: h0 adalah variabel independen tidak signifikan mempengaruhi variabel dependen. h1 adalah variabel independen mempengaruhi signifikan variabel dependen. wilayah untuk menolak h0 dan menerima h1, apabila nilai t-statistik parsial lebih dari +2,02108 atau kurang dari -2,02108 (winarno, 2015). dari estimasi vecm (vector error correction model) di atas, akan menghasilkan analisis penting dalam model var, yaitu sebagai berikut: 1) irf (impulse response function). analisis irf dilakukan untuk memeriksa respon kejutan (shock) dari masing-masing variabel dependen terhadap variabel independen. melalui analisis irf dapat diketahui seberapa lama variabel dependen dipengaruhi variabel independennya sebesar satu standar deviasi (penyimpangan). melalui analisis irf juga dapat diketahui seberapa lama variabel tersebut dapat mempengaruhi variabel lainnya atau dengan kata lain, dapat diketahui seberapa lama variabel kembali ke titik keseimbangannya sebelum terjadinya shock (basuki & yuliadi, 2015). menurut winarno (2015), respon yang dihasilkan dari irf, yaitu bisa positif, negatif, dan tidak merespon (mendatar pada garis horizontal). 2) vdc (variance decomposition). “analisis vdc bertujuan untuk mengukur besarnya kontribusi atau komposisi pengaruh masing-masing variabel independen terhadap variabel dependennya” (basuki & yuliadi, 2015). melalui analisis vdc akan memberikan keterangan tentang besarnya dan berapa lama proporsi shock sebuah variabel terhadap variabel itu sendiri dan terhadap variabel lain. dengan kata lain, melalui vdc dapat diketahui kontribusi atau komposisi masing-masing variabel independen terhadap pembentukan variabel dependennya. hasil dan pembahasan uji stasioneritas data tahap pertama yang harus dilalui untuk mendapatkan estimasi vecm adalah pengujian stasioneritas data masing-masing variabel, baik variabel dependen, maupun variabel independen. dalam studi ini, untuk mendeteksi stasioner atau tidaknya masing-masing data variabel, maka digunakan uji adf (augmented dickey fuller) dengan menggunakan model intercept. adapun uji stasioner adf masing-masing variabel dapat ditunjukkan oleh tabel 1. dengan mengamati tabel 1 dapat dijelaskan bahwa hanya terdapat satu variabel yang stasioner pada tingkat level menggunakan model intercept, yaitu inflasi ihk yang diketahui memiliki nilai adf t-statistik 3,016776 < -2,585626 (mc kinnon critical value 10 persen). artinya, h0 ditolak dan h1 diterima atau dengan kata lain, data sudah stasioner. sedangkan, variabel lain tidak stasioner pada tingkat level dengan model intercept, sehingga memerlukan deferensi data pada first difference sebagai berikut: berdasar tabel 2, setelah dilakukan diferensi pada first difference seluruh variabel telah stasioner yang diketahui dengan nilai adf tstatistik lebih kecil dai mc kinnon critical value 10 persen, artinya h0 ditolak dan h1 diterima atau dengan kata lain, data sudah stasioner. penentuan panjang lag dalam studi ini, penentuan panjang lag dilakukan dengan melihat nilai tertinggi dari sequential modified lr test statistic. panjang lag yang diikutsertkan dalam studi ini adalah mulai dari 0 sampai dengan lag 7, karena data yang dipakai adalah bulanan (monthly) dan hanya tujuh tahun. panjang lag tersebut dirasa tabel 1. hasil uji adf menggunakan intercept pada tingkat level variabel adf t-statistik mc kinnon critical value 10 persen prob keterangan inflasi ihk -3,016776 -2,585626 0,0374 stasioner harga bbm -0,238379 -2,585626 0,9283 tidak stasioner nilai tukar rupiah -1,146037 -2,586351 0,6938 tidak stasioner upah nominal 0,136065 -2,585626 0,9667 tidak stasioner bi rate -2,142694 -2,585861 0,2289 tidak stasioner determinan inflasi dari sisi supply ... (muhammad anif afandi) 137 cukup untuk menggambarkan inflasi ihk dalam periode bulanan (monthly) pada tahun 2008:1-2014:12. panjang lag optimal dapat ditunjukkan dalam tabel 3. tabel 3. pengujian panjang lag menggunakan nilai lr panjang lag nilai sequential modified lr test statistic 0 1 75,62087 2 30,04614 3 38,82789 4 22,58057 5 65,06088 6 115,9324* 7 28,03545 tabel 3 menjelaskan bahwa panjang lag optimal terletak pada lag 6, yaitu dengan nilai sequential modified lr test statistic tertinggi, yaitu 115,9324. oleh karena itu, lag optimal yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah lag 6. kemudian, karena panjang lag optimal sudah ditemukan, maka dapat dilakukan pengujian selanjutnya, yaitu uji kointegrasi. uji kointegrasi dalam studi ini, pengujian kointegrasi digunakan metode johansen’s cointegration test yang tersedia dalam software eviews dengan critical value 0,1. hasil uji kointegrasi ditunjukkan oleh tabel 4. berdasarkan tabel 4, dapat dijelaskan bahwa dalam taraf uji 10 persen (0,1), terdapat empat rank variabel berhubungan kointegrasi. hal tersebut dapat terbukti dari nilai trace statistic 101,8699, 65,03515, 29,93443, dan 2,950823 lebih besar dari critical value 0,1, yaitu 65,81970, 44,49359, 27,06695, dan 2,705545 yang artinya h0 ditolak dan h1 diterima atau dengan kata lain variabel-variabel yang digunakan memiliki hubungan dalam jangka panjang (kointegrasi) satu dengan lainnya. oleh karena itu, estimasi vecm dalam studi ini dapat digunakan. selanjutnya, dapat dilakukan uji stabilitas vecm. pengujian stabilitas vecm pengujian stabilitas model merupakan langkah selanjutnya sebelum kita menggunakan estimasi vecm. pengujian stabilitas model, dimaksud untuk menguji validitas irf dan vdc. pengujian stabilitas estimasi vecm dapat ditun-jukkan dalam tabel 5. tabel 2. hasil uji adf menggunakan intercept pada tingkat first difference variabel adf t-statistik mc kinnon critical value 10 % prob keterangan inflasi ihk -9,377190 -2,585861 0,0000 stasioner harga bbm -8,568879 -2,585861 0,0000 stasioner nilai tukar rupiah -3,734040 -2,586351 0,0053 stasioner upah nominal -9,752002 -2,585861 0,0000 stasioner bi rate -3,602395 -2,585861 0,0077 stasioner tabel 4. hasil uji kointegrasi (johansen’s cointegration test) unrestricted cointegration rank test (trace) hypothesized no. of ce(s) eigenvalue trace statistic 0,1 critical value prob.** none * 0,380209 101,8699 65,81970 0,0000 at most 1 * 0,366093 65,03515 44,49359 0,0006 at most 2 * 0,213957 29,93443 27,06695 0,0482 at most 3 0,103891 11,39716 13,42878 0,1882 at most 4 * 0,037597 2,950823 2,705545 0,0858 trace test indicates 3 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0,1 level * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0,1 level; **mackinnon-haug-michelis (1999) p-values sumber: lampiran 5, data diolah. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015: 132-145 138 tabel 5. hasil uji stabilitas estimasi vecm root modulus -0,037807 + 0,948933i 0,949686 -0,037807 0,948933i 0,949686 0,806351 0,458371i 0,927526 0,806351 + 0,458371i 0,927526 0,654514 0,651121i 0,923226 0,654514 + 0,651121i 0,923226 -0,350736 + 0,843502i 0,913516 -0,350736 0,843502i 0,913516 0,248379 0,859415i 0,894587 0,248379 + 0,859415i 0,894587 -0,751721 0,452047i 0,877172 -0,751721 + 0,452047i 0,877172 0,823562 0,282651i 0,870715 0,823562 + 0,282651i 0,870715 -0,190444 + 0,846478i 0,867637 -0,190444 0,846478i 0,867637 0,864881 0,864881 -0,524645 0,675588i 0,855378 -0,524645 + 0,675588i 0,855378 0,335052 + 0,778852i 0,847862 0,335052 0,778852i 0,847862 -0,846985 0,846985 -0,728316 0,291006i 0,784302 -0,728316 + 0,291006i 0,784302 -0,488998 0,548984i 0,735189 -0,488998 + 0,548984i 0,735189 0,608401 + 0,112373i 0,618691 0,608401 0,112373i 0,618691 0,394350 0,394350 -0,388468 0,388468 berdasarkan tabel 5, dapat dijelaskan bahwa model yang digunakan sudah stabil dari lag 1-6. hal tersebut dapat diketahui dari kisaran modulus dengan nilai rata-rata kurang dari satu. dengan demikian, hasil analisis irf (impulse response function) dan vdc (variance decomposition) adalah valid dan dapat dilakukan pengujian selanjutnya, yaitu uji kausalitas granger. uji kausalitas granger (granger causality test) dalam studi ini, uji kausalitas lebih ditujukan pada faktor penyebab inflasi dari sisi supply, yaitu harga bbm, nilai tukar rupiah, upah nominal dan bi rate yang mempengaruhi inflasi ihk atau dengan kata lain variabel harga bbm, nilai tukar rupiah, upah nominal dan bi rate sebagai leading indicator (indikator yang mempengaruhi perubahan harga) bagi inflasi ihk. taraf uji yang digunakan dalam uji kausalitas granger ini, yaitu pada tingkat kepercayaan 0,1 (10 persen) dan panjang lag sampai pada lag 6 sesuai pengujian panjang lag optimum yang telah dilakukan. hasil uji kausalitas granger ditunjukkan dalam tabel 6. tabel 6. uji kausalitas granger h0 lag 6 f-statistik prob. logbbm does not granger cause logcpi logcpi does not granger cause logbbm 2,80164 0,50191 0,0174 0,8047 loger does not granger cause logcpi logcpi does not granger cause loger 2,06692 3,11703 0,0692 6,0000 lognwage does not granger cause logcpi logcpi does not granger cause lognwage 0,09039 0,27939 0,9971 0,9449 logbirate does not granger cause logcpi logcpi does not granger cause logbirate 3,47725 1,20160 0,0048 0,3168 berdasarkan tabel 6, dapat dijelaskan bahwa yang memiliki hubungan kausalitas adalah variabel dengan nilai probabilitas lebih kecil dari ɑ 0,1, yaitu harga bbm, nilai tukar rupiah, dan bi rate yang menjadi leading indicator bagi inflasi ihk. sedangkan, upah nominal diketahui tidak mampu menjadi leading indicator bagi inflasi ihk. interpretasi hasil estimasi vecm (vector error correction model) setelah melakukan serangkaian tahap pra estimasi, yaitu uji stasioneritas data, penentuan panjang lag, uji kointegrasi, dan stabilitas vecm, dan faktanya terdapat empat rank kointegrasi dalam taraf uji 0,1 (10 persen) dalam studi ini, maka model analisis yang digunakan, yaitu vecm (vector error correction model). adapun hasil estimasi vecm dapat ditunjukkan dalam tabel 7. determinan inflasi dari sisi supply ... (muhammad anif afandi) 139 tabel 7. hasil estimasi vecm (vector error correction model) jangka pendek variabel koefisien t-statistik parsial d(dcpi(-1)) 0,199269 [2,12924] d(dcpi(-5)) -0,209685 [-3,54109] d(dbbm(-1)) 0,033821 [6,56399] d(dbbm(-2)) 0,029961 [6,12471] d(dbbm(-3)) 0,024554 [5,74495] d(dbbm(-4)) 0,021262 [5,82462] d(dbbm(-5)) 0,019019 [6,12854] d(der(-3)) 0,004018 [2,05064] d(dnwage(-1)) 0,017235 [2,77399] dengan mengamati tabel 7, hasil estimasi vecm di atas, dapat dijelaskan bahwa dalam jangka pendek terdapat empat variabel independen pada lag 1 sampai dengan lag 5 yang berpengaruh signifikan terhadap inflasi ihk, yaitu inflasi ihk itu sendiri (lag 1 dan lag 5), harga bbm (lag 1-lag 5), nilai tukar rupiah (lag 3), dan upah nominal (lag 1). namun, variabel bi rate diketahui tidak berpengaruh signifikan pada inflasi ihk dalam jangka pendek yang disebabkan adanya transmisi kebijakan moneter. hasil estimasi jangka pendek menunjukkan bahwa variabel inflasi ihk pada lag 1 berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap inflasi ihk itu sendiri, yaitu 0,19. artinya, apabila terjadi kenaikan inflasi ihk sebesar satu poin pada satu tahun sebelumnya, maka akan menaikkan inflasi ihk pada tahun sekarang sebesar 0,19 poin. hasil studi ini telah sesuai dengan studi yang dilakukan oleh monfort & pena (2008), jongwanich & donghyun park (2008), dan bashir et al. (2011) yang menyatakan bahwa dalam jangka pendek, kebijakan moneter mengalami transmisi, sehingga umumnya inflasi akan terjadi pada periode selanjutnya dalam jangka pendek. menurut wimanda (2014), dijelaskan bahwa kebijakan moneter di indonesia dapat mempengaruhi inflasi, yaitu memerlukan lag (transmisi) selama delapan belas bulan. kemudian, apabila kebijakan moneter kontraktif telah dilakukan oleh pemerintah, maka umumnya inflasi tidak akan mempengaruhi pada periode-periode selanjutnya dalam jangka pendek yang terbukti dengan hasil estimasi vecm pada lag 5 di mana, kenaikan inflasi ihk sebesar satu poin pada lima tahun sebelumnya, maka akan menurunkan inflasi ihk pada tahun sekarang sebesar -0,21 poin. dalam estimasi jangka pendek estimasi vecm menunjukkan bahwa variabel harga bbm pada lag 1 berpengaruh positif dan sig-nifikan terhadap inflasi ihk, yaitu sebesar 0,03. artinya, apabila terjadi kenaikan harga bbm sebesar rp1,00 pada satu tahun sebelumnya, maka akan menaikkan inflasi ihk pada tahun sekarang sebesar 0,03 poin. dalam estimasi jangka pendek estimasi vecm menunjukkan bahwa variabel harga bbm pada lag 2 berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap inflasi ihk, yaitu sebesar 0,029. artinya, apabila terjadi kenaikan harga bbm sebesar rp1,00 pada dua tahun sebelumnya, maka akan menaikkan inflasi ihk pada tahun sekarang sebesar 0,029 poin. dalam estimasi jangka pendek model vecm menunjukkan bahwa variabel harga bbm pada lag 3 berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap inflasi ihk, yaitu sebesar 0,025. artinya, apabila terjadi kenaikan harga bbm sebesar rp1,00 pada tiga tahun sebelumnya, maka akan menaikkan inflasi ihk pada tahun sekarang sebesar 0,025 poin. dalam estimasi jangka pendek estimasi vecm menunjukkan bahwa variabel harga bbm pada lag 4 berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap inflasi ihk, yaitu sebesar 0,02. artinya, apabila terjadi kenaikan harga bbm sebesar rp1,00 pada empat tahun sebelumnya, maka akan menaikkan inflasi ihk pada tahun sekarang sebesar 0,02 poin. dalam estimasi jangka pendek estimasi vecm menunjukkan bahwa variabel harga bbm pada lag 5 berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap inflasi ihk, yaitu sebesar 0,019. artinya, apabila terjadi kenaikan harga bbm sebesar rp1,00 pada lima tahun sebelumnya, maka akan menaikkan inflasi ihk pada tahun sekarang sebesar 0,019 poin. hasil studi yang menunjukkan pengaruh harga bbm terhadap inflasi ihk dari lag 1-lag 5 mendukung studi yang dilakukan oleh greenidge & dacosta (2009), boonyingyongstit (2013), perry & cline (2013), yang menyatakan bahwa harga bbm merupakan variabel utama dalam kegiatan produksi dan distribusi. apabila terjadi kenaikan harga bbm, sudah dipastikan akan berdampak pada inflasi yang bersumber jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015: 132-145 140 dari sisi supply (cost-push inflation). selain itu, hasil estimasi ini telah sesuai dengan teori dimana, kenaikan harga bbm (bahan bakar minyak) akan mempengaruhi pergerakan kurva penawaran agregat dalam jangka pendek (sras), yaitu bergerak ke kiri, sehingga mempengaruhi output (y) dan meningkatkan harga (p). namun, nilai koefisien hasil estimasi variabel harga bbm menunjukkan penurunan pada setiap lag (lag1-lag 5) yang artinya, meskipun kenaikan harga bbm (bahan bakar minyak) memberikan pengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap inflasi ihk namun, menunjukkan tren yang menurun yang tentunya disebabkan kebijakan pengendalian inflasi oleh bank sentral dan pemerintah. dalam estimasi jangka pendek estimasi vecm juga menunjukkan bahwa variabel nilai tukar rupiah pada lag 3 berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap inflasi ihk, yaitu sebesar 0,004. artinya, apabila terjadi kenaikan (depresiasi) nilai tukar rupiah sebesar rp1,00 pada tiga tahun sebelumnya, maka akan menaikkan inflasi ihk pada tahun sekarang sebesar 0,004 poin. hasil studi yang menunjukkan pengaruh positif variabel nilai tukar rupiah terhadap inflasi ihk, sesuai dengan studi yang dilakukan oleh greenidge & dacosta (2009), almounsor (2010), al-nashar (2011), adeniji (2013), yang menyatakan bahwa apabila nilai tukar mengalami depresiasi khususnya terhadap dolar as, maka secara nominal menyebabkan harga impor menjadi relatif lebih mahal. kemudian, hasil estimasi ini juga telah sesuai dengan toeri di mana, kenaikan kurs nominal (depresiasi) dapat menyebabkan kenaikan nominal uang yang dikeluarkan untuk pembayaran impor yang tentunya menggunakan mata uang asing (dollar as). apabila dalam kegiatan impor terdapat komoditas utama produksi (bahan baku), maka depresiasi nilai tukar dapat meningkatkan biaya produksi dan akhirnya memicu inflasi yang bersumber dari sisi supply (cost-push inflation). dalam estimasi jangka pendek estimasi vecm juga menunjukkan bahwa variabel upah nominal pada lag 1 berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap inflasi ihk, yaitu sebesar 0,017. artinya, apabila terjadi kenaikan upah nominal sebesar rp1.000,00 pada satu tahun sebelumnya, maka akan menaikkan inflasi ihk pada tahun sekarang sebesar 0,017 poin. hasil studi yang menunjukkan hubungan positif antara upah nominal dan inflasi ihk, telah sesuai dengan hasil studi yang dilakukan oleh al-nashar (2011), perry & cline (2013), yang menyatakan bahwa upah merupakan beban di dalam kegiatan produksi yang harus ditanggung produsen. apabila secara nominal upah mengalami peningkatan tanpa diimbangi dengan kenaikan produktivitas tenaga kerja, maka dapat memicu inflasi yang bersumber dari sisi supply (cost-push inflation). selain itu, hasil estimasi ini juga telah sesuai dengan teori dimana, kenaikan upah dapat mempengaruhi perubahan pada kurva penawaran agregat dalam jangka pandek (sras), yaitu bergerak ke atas yang menyebabkan penurunan output (y) dan kenaikan harga (p) dengan asumsi permintaan agregat tetap. sementara itu, hasil estimasi vecm dalam jangka panjang dapat ditunjukkan dalam tabel 8. tabel 8. hasil estimasi vecm (vector error correction model) jangka panjang variabel koefisien t-statistik parsial d(dbbm(-1)) 0,025789 [7,81505] d(der(-1)) -0,006655 [-3,92037] d(dbirate(-1)) -6,590135 [-3,16012] berdasarkan pengamatan pada tabel 8, dapat dijelaskan bahwa dalam jangka panjang diketahui variabel harga bbm, nilai tukar rupiah, upah nominal, dan bi rate berpengaruh signifikan terhadap inflasi ihk. sedangkan, upah nominal dalam jangka panjang tidak menunjukkan pengaruh signifikan terhadap inflasi ihk. dengan melihat tabel 8 estimasi vecm dalam jangka panjang, dapat dijelaskan bahwa harga bbm pada lag 1 berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap inflasi ihk, yaitu sebesar 0,026. artinya, apabila terjadi kenaikan harga bbm sebesar rp1,00 pada satu tahun sebelumnya, maka akan menaikkan inflasi ihk pada tahun sekarang sebesar 0,026 poin. hasil studi yang menunjukkan pengaruh positif antara harga bbm dengan inflasi ihk dalam jangka panjang, telah sesuai dengan studi yang determinan inflasi dari sisi supply ... (muhammad anif afandi) 141 dilakukan oleh greenidge & dacosta (2009), boonyingyongstit (2013), perry & cline (2013), dan rahman (2015), yang menyatakan bahwa perubahan harga bbm merupakan variabel yang harus diwaspadai, karena perubahan harga bbm dapat mempengarui inflasi yang bersumber dari sisi supply (cost-push inflation). estimasi jangka panjang estmasi vecm menunjukkan bahwa nilai tukar rupiah pada lag 1 berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap inflasi ihk, yaitu sebesar -0,006. artinya, apabila terjadi kenaikan (depresiasi) nilai tukar sebesar rp1,00 pada satu tahun sebelumnya, maka akan menurunkan inflasi ihk pada tahun sekarang sebesar -0,006 poin. hasil studi yang menunjukkan pengaruh negatif antara nilai tukar rupiah dan inflasi ihk dalam jangka panjang, telah sesuai dengan studi yang dilakukan oleh deyshappriya (2014), awan & imran (2015), yang menyatakan bahwa fleksibilitas nilai tukar bergerak secara dinamis tergantung kondisi perekonomian domestik. apabila kondisi perekonomian domestik membaik ditandai dengan kenaikan ekspor, maka rupiah dapat mengalami penurunan secara nominal (apresiasi) terhadap dolar as, sehingga harga barang impor secara nominal relatif lebih murah. apresiasi nilai tukar rupiah ini akhirnya dapat mengurangi kenaikan inflasi akibat barangbarang impor dalam jangka panjang. estimasi jangka panjang estimasi vecm menunjukkan bahwa variabel bi rate pada lag 1 berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap inflasi ihk, yaitu sebesar -6,57. artinya, apabila terjadi kenaikan bi rate sebesar 25 bps (kenaikan bi rate per 25 bps) pada satu tahun sebelumnya, maka akan menurunkan inflasi ihk pada tahun sekarang sebesar -6,57 poin. hasil studi yang menunjukkan hubungan negatif antara bi rate dan inflasi ihk tersebut telah sesuai dengan persamaan fisher dimana, bank indonesia dalam hal ini akan menaikkan suku bunganya yang bertujuan untuk memperlambat pertumbuhan jumlah uang beredar untuk menurunkan inflasi (mankiw, 2004). hasil estimasi vecm dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang di atas, merupakan hasil yang valid di mana, diketahui dari nilai koefisien determinasi r-squared sebesar 0,935 atau 93,5 persen dari 1,00 persen atau 100 persen di mana, perubahan variabel dependen (inflasi ihk) mampu dijelaskan oleh variabel independennya (harga bbm, nilai tukar rupiah, upah nominal, dan bi rate) sebesar 93,5 persen dari maksimal 100 persen. hasil analisis vecm tidak hanya mampu melihat pengaruh variabel independen terhadap variabel dependen, namun dalam estimasi vecm juga dilengkapi dengan fitur irf (impulse response function) dan vdc (variance decomposition). adapun hasil analisis irf dan vdc dapat dijelaskan di bawah ini: hasil analisis irf (impulse response function). 1) respon inflasi ihk terhadap shock harga bbm. analisis irf pertama yang akan ditunjukkan untuk menjelaskan inflasi dari sisi supply (cost-push inflation), yaitu respon inflasi ihk terhadap shock harga bbm. adapun respon inflasi ihk terhadap shock harga bbm dalam tempo empat tahun atau empat puluh delapan bulan, yaitu sebagai berikut: gambar 2. hasil analisis irf inflasi ihk terhadap shock harga bbm berdasarkan gambar 2, dapat dijelaskan bahwa respon inflasi ihk terhadap shock variabel harga bbm adalah positif (+) hingga memasuki periode ke-2. hal tersebut ditunjukkan dari garis irf yang cenderung di atas garis horizontal sampai periode ke-2. respon mulai bergerak turun pada periode ke-3, dan respon inflasi ihk terhadap shock harga bbm menjadi negatif (-) hingga sepanjang periode. 2) respon inflasi ihk terhadap shock nilai tukar rupiah. analisis irf kedua yang akan 8 4 0 4 5 1 0 1 5 2 0 2 5 3 0 3 5 4 0 4 5 response of dcpi to dbbm jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015: 132-145 142 ditunjukkan untuk menjelaskan inflasi dari sisi supply (cost-push inflation), yaitu respon inflasi ihk terhadap shock nilai tukar rupiah. adapun respon inflasi ihk terhadap shock nilai tukar rupiah dalam tempo empat tahun atau empat puluh delapan bulan, yaitu sebagai berikut: gambar 3. hasil analisis irf inflasi ihk terhadap shock nilai tukar rupiah berdasar gambar 3 dapat dijelaskan bahwa respon inflasi ihk terhadap shock nilai tukar rupiah adalah positif (+) sampai dengan periode ke-4. kemudian, respon bergerak menurun mulai periode ke-3 dan respon inflasi terhadap shock nilai tukar rupiah menjadi negatif (-) pada periode ke-5. selanjutnya, respon inflasi terhadap shock nilai tukar rupiah bergerak fluktuatif dan bergerak menuju titik keseimbangannya sebelum terjadinya shock pada periode ke-20. dengan kata lain, apabila nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dollar as mengalami depresiasi, maka dibutuhkan dua puluh periode untuk inflasi ihk kembali ke titik keseimbangannya sebelum terjadinya shock. 3) respon inflasi ihk terhadap shock upah nominal. analisis irf ketiga yakni akan menunjukkan respon inflasi ihk terhadap shock variabel upah nominal buruh industri manufaktur di bawah mandor di indonesia. dalam analisis ini digunakan periode empat puluh delapan bulan untuk mengetahui respon inflasi ihk terhadap shock variabel upah nominal. adapun hasil analisis irf inflasi ihk terhadap shock variabel upah nominal adalah sebagai berikut: gambar 4. hasil analisis irf inflasi ihk terhadap shock upah nominal berdasarkan gambar 4, dapat dijelaskan bahwa respon inflasi ihk terhadap shock upah nominal adalah positif (+) sampai periode ke-2. pada periode ke-3, respon inflasi ihk menurun dan berubah menjadi negatif (-). selanjutnya, respon inflasi ihk terhadap shock upah nominal cenderung fluktuatif. pada periode ke-35, respon inflasi mulai kembali kembali ke titik keseimbangannya sebelum terjadinya shock. dengan kata lain, apabila terjadi kenaikan upah nominal, inflasi ihk memerlukan waktu tiga puluh lima periode untuk kembali ke titik keseimbangannya sebelum terjadinya shock variabel upah nominal. 4) respon inflasi ihk terhadap shock bi rate analisis irf keempat yang akan ditunjukkan, yaitu respon inflasi ihk terhadap shock bi rate. dalam analisis ini digunakan waktu selama 48 bulan untuk mengetahui respon inflasi ihk terhadap shock bi rate. adapun hasil analisis irf respon inflasi ihk terhadap shock bi rate adalah sebagai berikut: gambar 5. hasil analisis irf inflasi ihk terhadap shock upah nominal 8 4 0 4 5 1 0 1 5 2 0 2 5 3 0 3 5 4 0 4 5 response of dcpi to der 8 4 0 4 5 1 0 1 5 2 0 2 5 3 0 3 5 4 0 4 5 response of dcpi to dnw ag e 8 4 0 4 5 1 0 1 5 2 0 2 5 3 0 3 5 4 0 4 5 response of dcpi to dbirat e determinan inflasi dari sisi supply ... (muhammad anif afandi) 143 berdasarkan gambar 5, dapat dijelaskan bahwa respon inflasi ihk terhadap shock bi rate adalah positif (+) sampai dengan periode ke-7. pada periode ke-4 respon inflasi ihk terhadap shock bi rate meningkat. namun, pada periode ke-8, respon inflasi ihk terhadap shock menjadi negatif (-). pada periode selanjutnya, respon inflasi ihk terhadap shock bi rate menunjukkan kecenderungan fluktuatif. pada analisis ini, respon inflasi ihk cenderung persisten dalam periode studi. hasil analisis vdc inflasi ihk terhadap variabel penelitian dalam studi ini, analisis vdc difokuskan untuk melihat pengaruh variabel independen (harga bbm, nilai tukar rupiah, upah nominal dan bi rate) terhadap variabel dependennya, yaitu inflasi ihk. karena data yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah data bulanan (monthly), maka periode untuk melihat kontribusi variabel independen terhadap pembentukan variabel dependennya, yaitu empat puluh delapan periode. adapun hasil analisis vdc dapat ditunjukkan dalam gambar 6. berdasarkan hasil analisis vdc (variance decomposition) di atas, variabel ihk itu sendiri memberikan kontribusi 100 persen pada periode pertama. harga bbm memberikan kontribusi terhadap inflasi ihk, yaitu di atas 60 persen hingga akhir periode penelitian. variabel nilai tukar rupiah memberikan kontribusi rata-rata 4 persen terhadap pembentukan inflasi ihk. variabel upah nominal memberikan kontribusi rata-rata 6 persen hingga akhir periode penelitian. kemudian, variabel bi rate diketahui memberikan kontribusi sebesar 12 persen terhadap inflasi ihk hingga akhir periode penelitian. simpulan dalam jangka pendek, inflasi ihk pada lag 1 (+) dan lag 5 (-), harga bbm dari lag 1 hingga lag 5 (+), nilai tukar rupiah pada lag 3 (+), dan upah nominal pada lag 1 (+) serta berpengaruh signifikan terhadap inflasi ihk di indonesia. sedangkan, variabel bi rate dalam jangka pendek tidak menunjukkan pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap inflasi ihk. dalam jangka panjang, diketahui variabel harga bbm (+), nilai tukar rupiah (-), dan bi rate (-) serta berpengaruh signifikan terhadap inflasi ihk di indonesia. sedangkan, upah nominal diketahui tidak memberikan pengaruh signifikan terhadap inflasi ihk di indonesia. analisis jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang tersebut dikatakan valid, karena tingkat koefisien determinasi r-squared sebesar 93,5 persen yang artinya, perubahan variabel dependen (inflasi ihk) mampu dijelaskan oleh variabel independen (harga bbm, nilai tukar rupiah, upah nominal, dan bi rate). berdasarkan hasil analisis irf, dapat disimpulkan bahwa respon inflasi ihk terhadap shock variabel harga bbm adalah (+) hingga memasuki periode ke-2. hasil analisis irf menunjukkan bahwa respon inflasi ihk terhadap shock variabel nilai tukar rupiah adalah (+) hingga memasuki periode ke-4. hasil analisis irf menunjukkan bahwa respon inflasi ihk terhadap shock variabel upah nominal adalah (+) hingga memasuki periode ke-2. hasil gambar 6. hasil analisis vdc inflasi ihk jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 2, oktober 2015: 132-145 144 analisis irf menunjukkan bahwa respon inflasi ihk terhadap shock variabel bi rate adalah (+) hingga memasuki periode ke-7. berdasarkan hasil analisis vdc (variance decomposition), variabel ihk itu sendiri, harga bbm, nilai tukar rupiah, upah nominal, dan bi rate masing-masing memberikan kontribusi yang bervariasi terhadap pembentukan inflasi ihk di indonesia. kontribusi tertinggi terhadap pembentukan inflasi ihk di indonesia, yaitu harga bbm yang memberikan kontribusi hingga di akhir periode penelitian di atas 60 persen. berdasarkan hasil studi yang telah dilakukan mengenai analisis determinan inflasi dari sisi supply (cost-push inflation) di indonesia periode 2008:1-2014:12, maka rekomendasi yang dapat diberikan adalah sebagai berikut: berdasarkan hasil analisis vdc, diketahui bahwa harga bbm memberikan kontribusi terhadap pembentukan inflasi ihk di atas 60 persen. oleh karena itu, hal yang harus dilakukan oleh pemerintah seharusnya adalah efisiensi anggaran belanja dan tidak terburu-buru dalam melakukan pemotongan subsidi bbm yang kita ketahui merupakan komoditi sentral di dalam proses produksi dan distribusi yang memberikan dampak yang sangat besar terhadap pembentukan inflasi yang dapat merugikan masyarakat secara individu dan negara dengan menurunnya pertumbuhan ekonomi. berdasarkan hasil estimasi vecm, diketahui bahwa variabel nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dollar as berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap inflasi ihk dalam jangka pendek. oleh karena itu, depresiasi nilai tukar rupiah idealnya diimbangi dengan perbaikan sektor pertanian dan sektor lainnya, sehingga bahan baku produk makanan tidak tergantung pada impor yang semakin membebani neraca transaksi berjalan dan menyebabkan inflasi di dalam negeri yang bersumber dari sisi supply (cost push inflation). berdasarkan hasil estimasi vecm, variabel upah nominal dalam jangka pendek berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap inflasi ihk. oleh karena itu, bagi serikat pekerja upaya penuntutan kenaikan upah sebaiknya juga diimbangi dengan kenaikan produktivitas tenaga kerja, agar stabilitas inflasi tetap terjaga dan tidak merugikan buruh itu sendiri akibat penurunan nilai upah riil yang disebabkan oleh inflasi yang bersumber dari sisi supply. berdasarkan hasil analisis irf, diketahui bahwa respon inflasi terhadap shock bi rate adalah positif, yang artinya ketika bi rate mengalami peningkatan, justru dapat meningkatkan inflasi. oleh karena itu, diperlukan optimalisasi kebijakan bauran bank indonesia pada makroprudensial dan penguatan kerjasama tpi (tim pengendalian inflasi) agar stabilitas inflasi di indonesia tetap terjaga. daftar pustaka adeniji, s. (2013). exchange rate volatility and inflation upturn in nigeria: testing for vector error correction model. munich personal repec archive paper no. 52062. almounsor, a. (2010). inflation dynamics in yemen: an empirical analysis, working paper wp/10/144, international monetary fund. al-nashar, s. b. (2011). nominal wage and proce dynamics in egypt: an empirical analysis, working paper no. 163. awan, a. g. and imran, m. (2015). factors affecting food price inflation in pakistan. abc journal of advanced research, vol iv 1, 2015, hal 74-87. bashir, f., et al. (2011). determinants of inflation in pakistan: an econometric analysis using johansen co-integration approach, australian journal of business and management research, vol. i 5, 2011, hal 76-82. basuki, a. t., dan yuliadi, i. (2015). ekonometrika teori dan aplikasi, edisi 1, mitra yogyakarta: aksara mulia. deyshappriya, n. p. r. (2014). inflation dynamic in srilanka: an application of vecm approach, ruhuna journal of management and finance, vol. i 2, july 2014, hal 20-26. greenidge, k., and da costa, d. (2009). determinants of inflation in selected caribbean countries. business, finance & economics in emerging economies, vol. iv 2, 2009, hal 385-394. jongwanich, j., and park, d. (2008). inflation in developing asia: demand-pull or cost push”, erd working paper series 121, asian development bank. determinan inflasi dari sisi supply ... (muhammad anif afandi) 145 langi, t. m., dkk. (2014). analisis pengaruh suku bunga bi, jumlah uang beredar, dan tingkat kurs terhadap tingkat inflasi di indonesia”, jurnal berkala ilmiah efisiensi, vol. xiv 2, mei 2014, hal. 45-46. mankiw, n. g. (2004). principles of economics, third edition, thomson south-western, united states of america. monfort, b., and pena, s. (2008). inflation determinants in paraguay: cost push versus demand pull factors. whd working paper wp/08/270, international monetary fund. perry, n., and cline, n. (2013). wages, exchange rates, and the great inflation moderation: a post-keynesian view, working paper no. 759, levy economics institute of bard college. pratiwi, a. (2013). determinan inflasi indonesia: jangka panjang dan pendek. jurnal ilmiah, feb, universitas brawijaya, malang. rahman, q. r. (2015). analisis terjadinya inflasi dari sisi supply (cost-push inflation) di indonesia tahun 1984-2013. jurnal ilmiah, feb, universitas brawijaya, malang. samuelson, a. p., and nordhaus, w. d. (1985). economics, twelfth edition, singapore: mcgraw-hill, inc. stiglitz, j. e. (1996). principles of macro-economics, second edition, usa: w. w. norton & company, inc. tambunan, t. t. h. (2012). perekonomian indonesia kajian teoritis dan analisis empiris, cetakan kedua, bogor: penerbit ghalia indonesia. wimanda, r. e., dkk. (2014). evaluasi transmisi bauran kebijakan bank indonesia. working paper no. 3, bank indonesia. winarno, w. w. (2015). analisis ekonometrika dan statistika dengan eviews, edisi keempat, cetakan pertama. yogyakarta: upp stim ykpn. studi efektivitas pelayanan publik di kecamatan kejaksan kota cirebon jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 1 10 pembangunan sektor pertanian melalui peningkatan produktivitas padi: studi kasus pemberian bantuan benih padi bermutu di kabupaten bantul astuti rahayu fakultas ekonomi universitas pembangunan nasional ”veteran” yogyakarta jalan swk 104 (lingkar utara) condongcatur 55283 telp: 0274-486733, 486402, 486188 e-mail: astutirahayu72@yahoo.com abstrak: sektor pertanian memiliki peranan sangat penting dalam pembangunan nasional dan regional. selama beberapa tahun terakhir, sektor ini mengalami penurunan kontribusinya terhadap produk nasional bruto. berdasarkan latar belakang keadaan tersebut, penulis melakukan penelitian pada tahun 2007 dengan tujuan (1). menganalisis produktivitas sebelum dan sesudah program pemberian bantuan benih padi yang berkualitas baik di kabupaten bantul (2). menganalisis total pendapatan petani sebelum dan sesudah program pemberian bantuan benih padi. hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa, pertama, bantuan benih padi untuk telah meningkatkan produktivitas padi di bawah 5 persen. kedua, meningkatnya produktivitas padi dapat menambah pendapatan para petani. kata kunci: produktivitas padi, bantuan benih padi, uji statistik, pendapatan total petani abstract: the agricultural sector has an important role in national and regional development. in recent years, this sector has decreased its contribution to gdp. based on the background of this situation, the author doing research in 2007 with the aim (1) analizing productivity before and after aid program of good quality rice seed in bantul regency. (2) analyzing income total of farmer he second increase rice productivity can increase the total income of farmersbefore and after aid program of good quality rice seed. research result showed that, firstly, aid program of good quality rice seed increase the productivity of rice seed has been less than 5 per cent. second, increasing productivity of rice can increase the total income of farmers. keywords: rice proctivity, rice seed, statistic test, uji hipotesis, total income farmer pendahuluan sektor pertanian memiliki peranan penting dalam pembangunan regional maupun nasional. beberapa tahun terakhir kontribusi sektor pertanian terhadap produk nasional bruto semakin menurun sejalan dengan meningkatnya peranan sektor industri dan jasa. kendati demikian, sektor pertanian diharapkan tetap mampu menjalankan perannya dalam pembangunan, yakni dalam hal: (1) menyediakan pangan bagi masyarakat, (2) memberikan kesempatan kerja, (3) menghemat dan menghimpun devisa, dan (4) memberikan dukungan untuk berkembangnya sektor-sektor lain. dalam penyediaan pangan dan kesempatan kerja, kemampuan sektor ini sudah teruji ketangguhannya, yakni dengan berhasilnya swasembada beras tahun 1984 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 1 10 2 (sumodiningrat, 1991: 1). namun setelah tercapainya swasembada, indonesia mengalami pasang surut dalam produksi dan mencapai puncaknya pada tahun 1998 dengan datangnya el nino. produksi merosot tajam, apalagi disertai dengan krisis ekonomi moneter pada saat itu (prabowo, 2001: 56 ). sejak saat itu banyak upaya yang telah dilakukan pemerintah untuk memenuhi kebutuhan beras di dalam negeri, terutama dari produksi dalam negeri agar swasembada beras kembali tercapai. dalam upaya itu, departemen pertanian (deptan) telah mencanangkan program peningkatan produksi beras nasional melalui beberapa kegiatan (deptan 2007: 1). salah satunya memberikan bantuan benih bermutu kepada para petani dengan tujuan meningkatkan produksi dan produktivitas padi, sehingga pendapatan petani ikut meningkat. kabupaten bantul merupakan salah satu daerah yang menjadi sasaran peningkatan produktivitas padi dengan target pemerintah pusat sebesar 5 persen. tetapi, yang menjadi pertanyaan adalah: 1. apakah bantuan benih padi bermutu mampu meningkatkan produktivitas padi sebesar 5 persen di kabupaten bantul? 2. apakah bantuan benih padi bermutu mampu meningkatkan pendapatan petani di kabupaten bantul? penelitian ini bertujuan untuk: (1). menganalisis produktivitas pada sebelum dan setelah ada bantuan benih bermutu, serta peningkatan produktivitasnya, pada musim tanam yang sama, (2). menganalisis pendapatan petani sebelum dan setelah ada bantuan benih bermutu. penelitian yang dilakukan oleh irina klitchnikova dan ndiane diop (klitchnikova, 2006) dilakukan di bangladesh menganalisis efek reformasi perdagangan dan perbaikan irigasi persawahan sejak 1990an telah membawa perubahan di sektor pertanian dan dapat meningkatkan produksi beras secara signifikan. dengan menggunakan metode penelitian berupa pendekatan sebelum dan sesudah reformasi kebijakan, memberikan hasil antara lain: (1). terjadi perubahan atau peningkatan produktivitas beras di bangladesh. (2). penurunan harga beras menguntungkan kaum miskin. (3) efek peningkatan produktivitas beras yang hasilnya dijual di pasar desa dan kota ternyata meningkatkan pendapatan petani. penelitian lain pernah dilakukan oleh darwanto dwidjon dan prima y. ratnaningtyas (dwijon, 2007) bertujuan untuk mengetahui kondisi ketahanan pangan terutama ditinjau dari ketersediaan beras sebagai komoditas pangan utama dan faktor-faktor kebijakan yang mempengaruhinya. dengan menggunakan alat analisis regresi linear data sekunder untuk indonesia tahun 1983 sampai 2002 didapat kesimpulan sebagai berikut: untuk menjamin keberlanjutan ketahanan pangan melalui ketersediaan pangan nasional terutama beras, dan sekaligus peningkatan kesejahteraan petani, diperlukan kebijakan jangka panjang dan jangka pendek. yaitu: (a) jangka pendek: kebijakan perlindungan petani dengan pembatasan impor beras, tetapi hendaknya didukung pula dengan kebijakan mendorong peningkatan produksi domestik melalui upaya peningkatan produktivitas padi terutama di daerah penghasil beras, seperti jawa, sumatera barat, dan sumatera selatan. sedangkan di daerah lain meningkatkan produktivitas disertai penambahan area tanam. (b). pembatasan impor terus dilakukan disertai kebijakan peningkatan produksi domestik dengan penganekaragaman pangan yang didukung dengan agroindustri pengolahan pangan non beras yang berbasis produksi dalam negeri. pembangunan sektor pertanian ... (astuti rahayu) 3 1. teori produksi setiap proses produksi memiliki elemen utama sistem produksi, yaitu input, proses, dan output. input merupakan sumber daya yang digunakan dalam proses produksi, proses adalah cara yang digunakan untuk menghasilkan produk, dan output adalah produk yang dihasilkan (soeratno, 2003; 119). dalam proses produksi menghasilkan barang dan jasa, dibutuhkan input yang juga dipengaruhi oleh teknologi. hubungan antara input dan output yang dihasilkan dengan teknologi tertentu, disebut fungsi produksi: q = f ( x1, x2, ... xn ) …….(1) dimana q adalah output, dan x1, x2, xn adalah input. dalam analisis jangka pendek, produksi menggunakan 2 macam input yaitu input tetap dan input variabel. sedangkan dalam jangka panjang semua input adalah input variabel. jangka pendek dan jangka panjang tergantung dari kemampuan produsen dalam mengubah input tetap menjadi input variabel. kemajuan tehnologi dapat berupa perbaikan dalam proses produksi, yaitu dengan jumlah input yang sama dapat menghasilkan output yang lebih banyak, atau dengan tingkat output yang sama menggunakan input yang lebih sedikit (biaya lebih rendah), seperti dalam gambar 2. 2. teori biaya produksi dan penerimaan total revenue merupakan jumlah penerimaan dari hasil penjualan output. total cost adalah jumlah yang dibayarkan untuk pembelian input. sedangkan profit adalah total revenue dikurangi total cost (mankiew, 2002: 268): sejalan dengan itu, soeratno mengatakan: dalam pengertian ekonomi, biaya (cost) didefinisikan sebagai semua beban harus yang ditanggung produsen untuk menghasilkan barang agar siap digunakan konsumen (soeratno, 2003: 139). dalam jangka pendek, biaya total (total cost = tc) yang dihadapi produsen mencakup biaya tetap (fixed cost = fc) dan biaya variabel (variable cost = vc). sedangkan dalam jangka panjang, seluruh biaya adalah variabel, karena seluruh inputnya juga variabel. sehingga: tc = fc + vc …….(2) jumlah produksi (q) tp1 tp0 q1 x input (x) q0 sumber: soeratno (editor), ekonomi mikro pengantar, stie ykpn, yogyakarta, 2003, hal 230 gambar 1. teknologi meningkatkan jumlah output fc, vc, tc q t c vc f c sumber: dumairy, matematika terapan untuk bisnis dan ekonomi, edisi ke-2, bpfe, yogyakarta, 1999, hal 203 gambar 2. fc, vc, tc (fungsi linear) jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 1 10 4 sedangkan penerimaan total (total revenue = tr) merupakan hasil dari jumlah output (quantity = q) dikalikan dengan harga (price = p): tr = q.p …….(3) seorang produsen akan mendapatkan keuntungan, jika tr > tc, kerugian jika tr < tc, dan impas jika tr = tc. jika digambarkan, nampak pada gambar 3. hipotesis dalam penelitian ini adalah: 1. bantuan benih padi bermutu mampu meningkatkan produktivitas sebesar minimal 5 persen di kabupaten bantul. 2. bantuan benih padi bermutu mampu meningkatkan pendapatan petani di kabupaten bantul. metode jenis dan sumber data data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder dari berbagai sumber yaitu jumlah produksi padi, luas area tanam, harga gabah, dan biaya usaha tani. periode yang diambil adalah sebelum dan sesudah ada bantuan benih bermutu, pada musim tanam yang sama, di 17 kecamatan di kabupaten bantul. sampel diambil secara random untuk masing-masing kecamatan. definisi operasional 1. produksi: jumlah padi sawah (gabah kering giling) yang dihasilkan di kabupaten bantul (kwintal/ha ) 2. produktivitas: jumlah produksi rata-rata per satuan luas (kwintal/ha) 3. benih bermutu: benih padi yang bersertifikat dari varietas unggul 4. penerimaan: hasil penjualan padi (gabah) dalam 1 musim tanam (rupiah) 5. biaya: adalah biaya yang dibutuhkan petani untuk melakukan kegiatan tanam padi dalam 1 musim tanam (rupiah ) 6. pendapatan petani: adalah keuntungan (laba) yang diperoleh petani selama 1 musim tanam (rupiah ) 7. musim tanam yang sama: adalah musim tanam dalam waktu yang sama sebelum ada bantuan benih (2006) dan setelah ada bantuan benih (2007). panen pertama setelah ada bantuan benih dilakukan bulan september 2007, sehingga musim panen yang sama diambil bulan september, oktober, nopember, dan desember. alat analisis 1. pengujian peningkatan produktivitas menggunakan alat analisis statistik yaitu uji hipotesis, dilakukan dalam 2 tahap: tahap i: untuk menguji apakah ada perbedaan produktivitas sebelum dan setelah ada bantuan (dalam hal ini apakah produktivitas setelah ada bantuan benih bermutu lebih besar jika dibandingkan sebelum ada bantuan benih). sedangkan tahap ii: untuk menguji apakah peningkatan produktivitas tersebut minimal tr, tc q tr tc tr > tc (untung) tr = tc (impas) tr < tc (rugi) q* gambar 3. kondisi untung, rugi, dan impas (bep) pembangunan sektor pertanian ... (astuti rahayu) 5 sebesar 5 persen. uji tahap ii hanya dilakukan jika uji tahap i memberikan kesimpulan ada kenaikan produktivitas setelah ada bantuan benih. 2. pengujian peningkatan pendapatan untuk menguji peningkatan pendapatan petani pada hipotesis 2, dilakukan dengan cara menghitung penerimaan total (total revenue = tr) dikurangi dengan total biaya (total cost = tc) pada tiap kecamatan, sebelum dan sesudah ada bantuan benih. penghitungan ini sering juga disebut dengan analisis usaha tani. setelah itu dilakukan uji hipotesis. hasil dan pembahasan peningkatan produktivitas 1. uji hipotesis: tahap i hasil perhitungan z tabel, z hitung terlihat pada tabel 1. sedangkan kurva normal nampak dalam ilustrasi gambar 4 dan 5. rumus z hitung: 353099874,2 61536993,1 0953,40    s d d zhit angka tersebut didapat dari perhitungan perhitungan sebagai berikut: d = 0953,4 17 62,69   n d tabel 1. perhitungan nilai uji statistik z hitung (untuk uji statistik produktivitas, pada uji hipotesis: tahap i) no kecamatan produktivitas 2006 produktivitas 2007 d d2 (kwintal/ha) (kwintal/ha) 1 srandakan 60,46 61,02 0,56 0,3136 2 sanden 56,50 62,13 5,63 31,6969 3 kretek 61,13 60,57 -0,56 0,3136 4 pundong 62,84 62,01 -0,83 0,6889 5 bambanglipuro 54,01 53,12 -0,89 0,7921 6 pandak 58,83 60,36 1,53 2,3409 7 bantul 62,44 71,91 9,47 89,6809 8 jetis 58,86 70,98 12,12 146,8944 9 imogiri 55,21 53,95 -1,26 1,5876 10 dlingo 48,11 47,05 -1,06 1,1236 11 pleret 43,06 58,96 15,90 252,8100 12 piyungan 53,29 63,94 10,65 113,4225 13 banguntapan 57,41 59,02 1,61 2,5921 14 sewon 68,03 74,10 6,07 36,8449 15 kasihan 60,52 59,97 -0,55 0,3025 16 pajangan 58,02 61,43 3,41 11,6281 17 sedayu 57,66 65,48 7,82 61,1524 jumlah 69,62 754,1850 sumber: dinas pertanian dan kehutanan kabupaten bantul, diolah jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 1 10 6 61536993,1 17 660617353,6  n s s d               1 2 2 n n s d d 660617353,6 117 17 185,754 185,754          z hit = 2,535099874 z tab =1,746 catatan: karena data produktivitas kecamatan pundong bulan september – desember tidak tersedia, maka digunakan data rata-rata produktivitas tahun 2006. sedangkan daerah penolakan dan penerimaan ho pada kurva normal, diilustrasikan dalam gambar 4. kesimpulan: z hitung lebih besar dari z tabel, maka ho ditolak. jadi, produktivitas padi setelah ada bantuan benih memang lebih besar (meningkat). 2. uji hipotesis : tahap ii hasil perhitungan t tabel, t hitung nampak dalam tabel 2. sedangkan ilustrasi kurva normal terlihat dalam gambar 5. ho ditolak ho diterima 1,746 2,535 gambar 4. kurva normal pada uji produktivitas tahap i tabel 2. perhitungan nilai test statistik t hitung (untuk uji statistik produktivitas, uji hipotesis: tahap ii) no kecamatan xi (%) (xi-xbar) (xi-xibar)2 0,9262 -6,6059 43,6385 1 srandakan 9,9646 2,4324 5,9167 2 sanden -0,9161 -8,4483 71,3731 3 kretek -1,3208 -8,8530 78,3755 4 pundong -1,6478 -9,1800 84,2728 5 bambanglipuro 2,6007 -4,9315 24,3193 6 pandak 15,1666 7,6344 58,2838 7 bantul 20,5912 13,0591 170,5390 8 jetis -2,2822 -9,8144 96,3219 9 imogiri -2,2033 -9,7355 94,7792 10 dlingo 36,9252 29,3930 863,9510 11 pleret 19,9850 12,4528 155,0725 12 piyungan 2,8044 -4,7278 22,3520 13 banguntapan 8,9225 1,3904 1,9331 14 sewon -0,9088 -8,4410 71,2499 15 kasihan 5,8773 -1,6549 2,7387 16 pajangan 13,5623 6,0301 36,3619 17 sedayu jumlah 128,0470 1881,4788 pembangunan sektor pertanian ... (astuti rahayu) 7 rumus t hitung:    ns x t /   0,962784 x dan s diperoleh dari perhitungan-perhitungan sebagai berikut: n xi x   = 7,5322   844004,10 1 2      n xxi s t tabel = 1.746 sedangkan daerah penolakan dan penerimaan ho pada kurva normal, nampak dalam gambar 5. kesimpulan: t hitung lebih kecil dari t tabel, maka ho diterima dan ha ditolak. jadi, peningkatan produktivitas padi setelah ada bantuan benih tidak lebih besar dari 5 persen (kurang dari 5 persen). peningkatan pendapatan pendapatan petani diperoleh dari perhitungan total penerimaan dikurangi dengan total biaya. total penerimaan didapat dari rata-rata produksi per kecamatan dikalikan dengan harga gabah kering giling. tetapi karena tidak tersedianya data harga gabah kering giling, maka jumlah produksi (berat) gabah kering giling dikonversikan ke berat beras, sebesar 63,20 persen (bps dan departemen pertanian, 2007: 162). sedangkan total biaya dihitung dari analisis usaha tani. hasil perhitungan z tabel, z hitung nampak dalam tabel 3 dan tabel 4, dan kurva normal pada gambar 6. angka tersebut didapat dari perhitungan-perhitungan sebagai berikut: rumus z hitung: 678071,3543 9351356,550 759,19523360    s d d zhit . angka tersebut didapat dari perhitunganperhitungan sebagai berikut: d = 759,1952336 17 9,33189724   n d 9351356,550 17 563757,2271  n s s d 1 2 2              n n s d d 563757,2271 117 17 5,165948624 5,165948624           z hit = 3543,678071 z tab = 1,746 sedangkan daerah penolakan dan penerimaan ho pada kurva normal, nampak dalam gambar 6. ho ditolak ho diterima 0,963 1,746 gambar 5. kurva normal pada uji produktivitas tahap ii ho ditolak ho diterima 1,746 3543,68 gambar 6. kurva normal pada uji peningkatan pendapatan jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 1 10 8 tabel 3. perhitungan nilai test statistik z hitung (untuk uji statistik peningkatan pendapatan) no kecamatan laba '06 (rp) laba '07 (rp) d d2 1 srandakan 4166986,70 5202795,20 1035808,50 5179042,50 2 sanden 3148692,50 5504448,80 2355756,30 11778781,50 3 kretek 4339273,85 5080503,20 741229,35 3706146,75 4 pundong 4778991,80 5471837,60 692845,80 3464229,00 5 bambanglipuro 2508401,45 3055891,20 547489,75 2737448,75 6 pandak 3747840,35 5023433,60 1275593,25 6377966,25 7 bantul 4676133,80 8162261,60 3486127,80 17430639,00 8 jetis 3755554,70 7909524,80 4153970,10 20769850,50 9 imogiri 2816975,45 3281452,00 464476,55 2322382,75 10 dlingo 991245,95 1406308,00 415062,05 2075310,25 11 pleret -307336,30 4642969,60 4950305,90 24751529,50 12 piyungan 2323257,05 5996334,40 3673077,35 18365386,75 13 banguntapan 3382694,45 4659275,20 1276580,75 6382903,75 14 sewon 6113574,35 8757416,00 2643841,65 13219208,25 15 kasihan 4182415,40 4917447,20 735031,80 3675159,00 16 pajangan 3539552,90 5314216,80 1774663,90 8873319,50 17 sedayu 3446980,70 6414844,80 2967864,10 14839320,50 jumlah 33189724,90 165948624,50 sumber : dinas pertanian dan kehutanan kabupaten bantul, diolah. tabel 4. perhitungan nilai uji statistik z hitung (untuk uji statistik peningkatan pendapatan) no kecamatan laba '06 (rp) laba '07 (rp) d d2 1 srandakan 4166986,70 5202795,20 1035808,50 5179042,50 2 sanden 3148692,50 5504448,80 2355756,30 11778781,50 3 kretek 4339273,85 5080503,20 741229,35 3706146,75 4 pundong 4778991,80 5471837,60 692845,80 3464229,00 5 bambanglipuro 2508401,45 3055891,20 547489,75 2737448,75 6 pandak 3747840,35 5023433,60 1275593,25 6377966,25 7 bantul 4676133,80 8162261,60 3486127,80 17430639,00 8 jetis 3755554,70 7909524,80 4153970,10 20769850,50 9 imogiri 2816975,45 3281452,00 464476,55 2322382,75 10 dlingo 991245,95 1406308,00 415062,05 2075310,25 11 pleret -307336,30 4642969,60 4950305,90 24751529,50 12 piyungan 2323257,05 5996334,40 3673077,35 18365386,75 13 banguntapan 3382694,45 4659275,20 1276580,75 6382903,75 14 sewon 6113574,35 8757416,00 2643841,65 13219208,25 15 kasihan 4182415,40 4917447,20 735031,80 3675159,00 16 pajangan 3539552,90 5314216,80 1774663,90 8873319,50 17 sedayu 3446980,70 6414844,80 2967864,10 14839320,50 jumlah 33189724,90 165948624,50 pembangunan sektor pertanian ... (astuti rahayu) 9 kesimpulan: z hitung lebih besar dari z tabel, maka ho ditolak. jadi, pendapatan petani setelah ada bantuan benih memang lebih besar (meningkat). pembahasan kesimpulan yang dapat diambil dari hasil ketiga uji statistik tersebut adalah: bantuan benih padi bermutu telah mampu meningkatkan produktivitas padi meskipun belum memenuhi target peningkatan 5 persen. peningkatan produktivitas tersebut telah dapat menambah pendapatan petani, yang diharapkan dapat membantu meningkatkan kesejahteraannya. bantuan benih padi bermutu yang dilakukan oleh pemerintah untuk meningkatkan produktivitas padi telah memberikan hasil positif di kabupaten bantul. hal ini membuktikan bahwa perbaikan kualitas input atau faktor produksi ternyata berdampak pada peningkatan kualitas output, yang dalam hal ini dicerminkan oleh meningkatnya produktivitas padi. mengenai peningkatan produktivitas yang masih kurang dari 5 persen (yang berarti target belum tercapai), perlu dilakukan beberapa perbaikan pada kesiapan penerimaan bantuan benih bermutu, baik dari petani sendiri maupun lembaga terkait. dengan adanya peningkatan produktivitas tersebut, ternyata membawa dampak pada meningkatnya pendapatan (laba) petani. jika hal ini dilakukan secara terus menerus dengan perbaikan di beberapa sisi yang dianggap masih kurang, maka di masa datang petani di kabupaten bantul akan semakin meningkat kesejahteraannya. kesimpulan pemberian bantuan benih bermutu di kabupaten bantul telah berhasil meningkatkan produktivitas padi, tetapi peningkatannya masih kurang dari target 5 persen. peningkatan produktivitas padi tersebut telah mampu meningkatkan pendapatan petani di kabupaten bantul. berkenaan dengan belum tercapainya target peningkatan produktivitas padi sebesar 5 persen, perlu dilakukan beberapa langkah untuk perbaikan di masa datang, antara lain: 1. diberikan percontohan prosedur yang benar tentang penanaman padi dengan benih padi bermutu. ini dapat dilakukan dengan membuat semacam laboratorium lapangan di beberapa tempat, untuk memudahkan petani. 2. diberikan pelatihan (sekolah lapangan) yang memadai bagi petani sebelum diberikan bantuan benih bermutu. daftar pustaka bps dan departemen pertanian. 2007. buku pedoman pengumpulan dan pengolahan data tanaman pangan. jakarta. departemen pertanian. 2007. pedoman umum peningkatan produksi dan produktivitas padi melalui bantuan benih padi hibrida tahun 2007. jakarta: deptan. dumairy. 1999. matematika terapan untuk bisnis dan ekonomi. edisi ke-2. yogyakarta: bpfe. dwidjon, darwanto dan prima y. ratnaningtyas. 2007. “kesejahteraan petani dan peningkatan ketersediaan pangan. sebuah dilema?”. jurnal ekonomi rakyat jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 1 10 10 edisi 23, juli 2007 (www.ekonomirakyat. org). joesron, tati suhartati, dan m. fathorrozi. 2002. teori ekonomi mikro. jakarta: salemba empat. klytchnikova, irina, and ndiane diop. 2006. trade reform, farm productivity, and poverty in bangladesh, the 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indonesia no. 1 tahun v 1990, yogyakarta: fe ugm. todaro, michael p., and smith. 2003. economics development. 8th ed. united kingdom. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 24 nomor 1, april 2023 article type: research paper deforestation-induced the ekc framework: the role of corruption control and trade openness in southeast asia mohamad egi destiartono and mahjus ekananda* abstract: reducing the deforestation rate and formulating sustainable forest governance are still challenging for southeast asia. this empirical research intends to explore the dynamic connection between gdp, trade openness, corruption, and deforestation within the ekc framework by considering controls over agriculture and population. this article uses panel data from nine countries from 1996 to 2018. pooled mean group (pmg) procedure and dumitrescu-hurlin (dh) causality tests were applied to examine the variables’ long-term relationships and the direction of the causality. this article also features the unit root and cointegration tests. the estimation supports the ekc hypothesis that the nexus between economic growth and deforestation forms an inverted-u curve. the turning point of the per capita gdp is usd 26785, i.e., the advanced stage of development. other findings are that trade openness is a driver of deforestation, while control of corruption is an effective instrument to reduce the deforestation rate in the long run. deforestation will still occur in southeast asia because only brunei darussalam has passed the turning point. however, implementing development programs while reducing the deforestation rate can be done because the bidirectional causality between gdp and deforestation is not confirmed. improving trade regulations and governance is a necessary scheme to reduce deforestation rates in the future. keywords: deforestation; gdp; trade openness; corruption; ekc; southeast asia jel classification: o44; q56; q23; f18 introduction improving forest governance and promoting sustainable development are notable agendas to battle the 21st-century climate crisis. developing countries, however, deal with political-economic pressures to achieve environmental advancement (tester, 2020). forests are vital in sustainable development because they absorb approximately 2.4 billion tons of carbon emissions annually and are home to 80% of terrestrial biodiversity (iucn, 2021). six hundred six gigatons of biomass reserves are stored in forests, potentially as inputs for green economic growth (fao, 2020). however, the remarkable benefits of forest resources are threatened by the current situation in line with forest degradation and fragmentation issues. the global deforestation rate for 2015-2020 is still relatively high, with nearly 10 million hectares yearly (fao & unep, 2020). however, deforestation rates also vary widely among regions. southeast asia is one affiliation: department of economics, faculty of economics and business, universitas indonesia, west java, indonesia *correspondence: mahyusekananda@gmail.com this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v24i1.16798 citation: destiartono, m. e., & ekananda, m. (2023). deforestation-induced the ekc framework: the role of corruption control and trade openness in southeast asia. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 24(1), 81-99. article history received: 11 nov 2022 revised: 16 mar 2023 09 apr 2023 accepted: 03 may 2023 https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?user=aknfwxyaaaaj&hl=en https://econ.feb.ui.ac.id/ https://econ.feb.ui.ac.id/ https://econ.feb.ui.ac.id/ https://econ.feb.ui.ac.id/ mailto:mahyusekananda@gmail.com http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp http://dx.doi.org/10.18196/jesp.v24i1.16798 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v24i1.16798&domain=pdf destiartono & ekananda deforestation-induced the ekc framework: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 82 of the territories with the highest deforestation rate. during 1990-2020, the forest cover area declined by 376,000 km2 (russell, 2020). this phenomenon indicates that forest governance has not been robust enough, where expansion for agriculture and public infrastructure development is enforced by converting forests. deforestation occurs in all types of forests. deforestation of mangrove forests is widely found in myanmar, while deforestation of peat swamps and tropical rain forests is markedly confirmed in indonesia (gandhi & jones, 2019). the deforestation rate is generally associated with development processes. it follows an inverted-j curve pattern, divided into four stages: pre-transition, early transition, late transition, and post-transition (hosonuma et al., 2012). the pre-transition phase is closely linked to low-income nations characterized by sub-optimal forest resource management. the early transition phase is closely tied to developing countries with high deforestation rates. deforestation is carried out for agricultural expansion and industrialization, widely confirmed in southeast asia, latin america, and sub-saharan africa (ordway et al., 2017; tester, 2020). however, north american and european countries benefit from the late and post-transition phases. the forest transition theory aligns with the environmental kuznets curve (ekc) that the relationship between economic growth and deforestation follows an inverted-u shaped or n curve (caravaggio, 2020a). the inverted-u curve occurs due to the effects of scale, decomposition, and technology, in line with the stage of economic development (usman et al., 2019). since the 21st century, the focus on the drivers of forest depletion has shifted from proximate (direct) to underlying (indirect) causes. the underlying drivers consist of sociocultural, economic, demographic, governance, and technological elements (carodenuto et al., 2015). economic factors at the root of the forest cover changes in the tropics are gross domestic product (gdp) growth, urbanization, industrialization, trade, and prices of agricultural commodities. however, the relationship between economic variables and deforestation may not be linear and is influenced by other factors such as environmental regulations, quality of human resources, and clarity of property rights. economic growth has long been linked to deforestation in emerging markets, including tropical countries. the research of yameogo (2021) in burkina faso and nathaniel and bekun (2020) in nigeria found that per capita income has a positive and significant effect on deforestation rates in the short term. the increase in per capita gdp will be followed by growth in the consumption of forestry and agricultural products, which drives forest degradation. ajanaku and collins (2021) reported that the nexus between per capita gdp and deforestation rates in sub-saharan africa follows an inverted-u curve, in line with the ekc framework. economic growth will not promote deforestation once per capita income reaches usd 3,000. in addition, there is unidirectional causality from per capita gdp to deforestation (ajanaku & collins, 2021). in addition to economic growth, trade openness is suspected as another economic factor that drives changes in forest areas in the tropics. the increasing demand for agricultural commodities and forestry products from the global community incentivizes tropical countries to convert forests and extract trees. defries et al. (2010) found that trade in destiartono & ekananda deforestation-induced the ekc framework: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 83 agricultural commodities is the leading cause of deforestation in this century. expanding agriculture and increasing forestry products in southeast asia is done mainly by clearing forests. palm oil is an export commodity from forest conversion that causes deforestation (austin et al., 2019). the results of the study by faria and almeida (2016) in the brazilian amazon forest also confirm that trade openness, in both primary and total products, is a driver of deforestation. in contrast, nathaniel and bekun (2020) found that trade openness in nigeria in the long term does not lead to deforestation. trade can help meet the demand for agricultural commodities so that openness can reduce the potential of forest conversion. in addition to economic factors, governance and institutions are other underlying factors for forest cover changes in the tropics. wehkamp et al. (2018) used several governance indicators to investigate deforestation and found that environmental policies, clarity of property rights, and the presence of environmental ngos and rules of law have been proven to reduce deforestation. in addition, pachmann (2018) emphasized that improving governance through corruption prevention and control is crucial because corruption at regional levels helps illegal logging in indonesia. corrupt conduct can also hinder forest conservation, certification, and redd+ programs. thuy van et al. (2020) reported that controlling corruption has a beneficial role in achieving sustainable development. for the case of southeast asia, handalani (2019) noted that the effect of corruption perceptions index (cpi) on forest cover is positive. nonetheless, mendes and junior (2012) reported found that corruption has no significant impact on deforestation rates in the amazon rainforest in brazil. the vast majority of the ekc in southeast asia focuses on co2 emission (saboori & sulaiman, 2013; nosheen et al., 2019; ansari, 2022; pata et al., 2022) and few researchers focused on deforestation. therefore, this paper intends to investigate the presence of ekc deforestation in southeast asia and consider the role of control over corruption and trade. to the best of our knowledge, testing the ekc hypothesis for deforestation in southeast asia using a comprehensive panel method is still neglected. the previous articles by thi & nguyen (2018), handalani (2019), and kustanto (2022) solely employed a within estimator (fixed effect model), which ignored some critical issues in panel data, i.e., dynamics processes and heterogeneity slope (hill et al., 2020). hence, this paper uses the pooled mean group (pmg) estimator that can perform better in long panels (𝑇 > 𝑁). moreover, the method is appropriate to tackle endogeneity problems via sufficient lags. to give more insight, we consider the impact of corruption and trade openness on deforestation. as caravaggio (2020b) proposed, governance and trade openness are vital drivers of forest cover change. moreover, the current study revises the previous paper conducted by handalani (2019) by employing more expanded panel data (9 countries over the period 1996 – 2018). finally, we also performed the dumitrescu-hulin (dh) test to examine panel causality among variables. the ekc, inverted u-shape hypothesis, has been utilized as an empirical framework to investigate the connection between initial level of economic growth and environmental degradation. it states that degradation of the environment grows along with the initial output growth (scale effect) and declines at a specific point when the economy advances destiartono & ekananda deforestation-induced the ekc framework: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 84 a certain level of economic development (ganda, 2019). therefore, the ekc framework represents a dynamic process in which technological innovation and structural changes emerge along with output growth (darwanto et al., 2019). to this day, the ekc has been widely used in various proxies of environmental degradation (stern, 2018), such as carbon dioxide (mahmood et al., 2019), methane (adeel-farooq et al., 2021), ecological footprint (al-mulali et al., 2015), water pollution (thompson, 2012), and deforestation (caravaggio, 2020a). the ekc-deforestation mainly comprises singleor cross-country analysis focused on tropical regions. figure 1 presents a general shape of the ekc curve. figure 1 the ekc curve source: rashid gill et al. (2018) the ekc has been widely tested and discussed, but there are heterogeneity findings among samples that considerably limit the overall significance and sign of coefficients of the results. an empirical meta-analysis conducted by caravaggio (2020b) noted that ekcdeforestation related to two theories, i.e., the von thünen-like competing land use forest development path (fdp) and forest transition (ft). the results revealed that the ekc framework leaves open the question of whether it does hold or not. put simply, studies of ekcs remain unresolved. it needs to consider the length of periods, the thoroughness of the data, the cross-sectional sample selection, and the potential of a second threshold. however, the second turning point may only be relevant for high-income samples. align with stern (2018) who stated that the ekc hypothesis is not statistically robust. ekc estimation results are sensitive to additional control variables, measurement variables, length of the data, and size of cross-sections (aquilas et al., 2022; sapkota & bastola, 2017). currently, ekc deforestation studies expand its empirical model concerning the proximate and underlying drivers of forest cover change. previous studies incorporated the role of agricultural, trade, energy use, demographic, macroeconomic, and governance (see aquilas et al., 2022; ajanaku & collins, 2021; manivong et al., 2021; tsiantikoudis et al., 2019; caravaggio, 2020a; ogundari et al., 2017; waluyo & terawaki, 2016; yustisia & sugiyanto, 2014; wafiq & suryanto, 2021). using annual data over the 1962 – 2007 periods and the ardl procedure, waluyo and terawaki (2016) tested the ekc hypothesis in the case of indonesia and modified the ekc model by incorporating the role of agriculture and demographic factors. deforestation destiartono & ekananda deforestation-induced the ekc framework: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 85 was proxied by the change in forest cover over the forest cover in the previous period (fct−1 − fct fct−1⁄ ). the inverse u-shape for the nexus between income per capita and deforestation was evident. surprisingly, the income turning point was us$ 990.4. the results indicate that indonesia is in a technological step in which gdp growth supports improving forest cover. in addition, the study revealed the unidirectional causality from gdp per capita to deforestation. in the same vein, kustanto (2022) examined the impact of trade openness on forest cover and tested the existence of the ekc hypothesis by employing pooled data (20 provinces over the 2002 – 2018 periods) and running the fixed effect estimator. instead of using the annual rate of deforestation, he preferred to use forest cover as a proxy for environmental degradation. trade openness, income per capita, and loggings, respectively, negatively contribute to changes in forest cover. advancing trade openness, economic growth, and logging activities cause forest cover to decrease. the results align with tsurumi and managi (2014) and faria and almeida (2016). in addition, the eck framework was verified. the results align with adila et al. (2021), who examined the ekc deforestation in the case of indonesia using provincial panel data (32 states for the period of 2013 – 2018) and by employing the feasible gls method. the turning point was approximately us$10,055. naito and traesupap (2014) tested the ekc framework in thailand, used mangrove deforestation as a proxy for environmental depletion, and expanded its empirical model by considering the impact of shrimp farm expansion. the research employed provincial panel data, i.e., mangrove loss and gross regional domestic product (grdp) per capita, over the 1975 – 2004 period. the results support the ekc framework that the nexus between income per capita and mangrove loss follow the inverse u-shape. in addition, results noted that the development of extensive and semi-intensive shrimp aquaculture quickens mangrove depletion. however, intensive shrimp aquaculture developed during the 1990s effectively declined mangrove loss. by adopting a sophisticated empirical strategy, caravaggio (2020a) examined the ekc hypothesis using pmg and differentiated samples based on income classification. findings were heterogeneous based on income group. the results, surprisingly, found that the inverted u-curve is only verified in middle-income countries and that the turning point occurred when the level of income per capita attained usd 3,790. meanwhile, the link between income per capita and deforestation in low-income and high-income countries follows a u-curve, interpreting that forest depletion is predicted to persist. nonetheless, join samples confirmed that the ekc hypothesis was evident, with its relatively elevated threshold and the even higher level of development at which forests cover begins to expand and recover. among the recent studies, not all findings verify the ekc hypothesis. manivong et al. (2021) examined the shortand long-run relationship between income per capita and the rate of deforestation in laos within the ekc framework and considered additional control variables (debt, rural population growth, and agricultural production). the study engaged the annual data spanning 1991 – 2015 and the ardl method. results disputed the ekc framework and showed that the significant causes of deforestation are rural population destiartono & ekananda deforestation-induced the ekc framework: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 86 and agricultural production. similarly, empirical analyses by minlah et al. (2021) and tsiantikoudis et al. (2019) failed to verify the ekc hypothesis; instead, the link between income per capita and deforestation follows an inverted n-curve. further, liu et al. (2017) examined the forest transition (ft) for nine asian countries for the period 1960-2010 and tested the ekc hypothesis independently. the ols is employed to test any significant link between variables. the results, however, reported that the inverted u-shaped curves for each country were not robust, i.e., there is no consistency when the model omits control variables. after adding control variables; however, the ekc hypothesis was only verified in south korea and indonesia. regarding the ft, results showed that indonesia, malaysia and laos still experience forest cover decline, indicating that rapid forest loss is still ongoing. in the same vein, leblois et al. (2017) combined the ols and fixed effect estimators to test the ekc deforestation in developing countries. results cannot validate the ekc hypothesis and note that agricultural trade, previously relatively neglected, is found to be one of the main drivers of deforestation. research method data this empirical study uses secondary data, i.e. panel data from nine southeast asian countries in the period of 1996-2018. the research period was determined by the availability of the data. the samples are indonesia, malaysia, thailand, vietnam, the philippines, laos, brunei darussalam, cambodia, and myanmar. the data needed to form the variables are forest cover area (% of land area), export value (% of gdp), import value (% of gdp), per capita gdp (constant prices in 2015), the estimated value of the corruption control index (from -2.5 to 2.5), arable land area (% of land area), and population growth. these data were obtained from the annual statistics of world development indicators (wdi) and world governance indicators (wgi) published by the world bank. since the corruption data indices for 1997, 1999, and 2001 were not available, these gaps were filled by applying the linear interpolation technique. the number of observations in this study is 207, acquired from nine countries and 23 series. model specification this study aims to examine the nexus between economy, governance, and deforestation under the ekc hypothesis. the selected economic indicators are per capita income and trade openness, while governance is proxied by the control of corruption index. referring to previous articles on ekc deforestation by caravaggio (2020a), minlah et al. (2021), and liu et al. (2017), an empirical model can be specified as follow: 𝐷𝐸𝐹𝑖𝑡 = 𝛽0 + 𝛽1𝐺𝐷𝑃𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽2𝐺𝐷𝑃𝑖𝑡 2 + 𝛽3𝑇𝑂𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽4𝐶𝑂𝑅𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽5𝐴𝑅𝐴𝐵𝐿𝐸𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽6𝑃𝑂𝑃𝐺𝑖𝑡 + 𝑒𝑖𝑡 (1) destiartono & ekananda deforestation-induced the ekc framework: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 87 in the equation above, def is the deforestation rate; gdp is per capita income, gdp2 is the quadratic form of per capita income, cor is corruption control index, trade is trade openness, popg is population growth, arable is arable land area, subscripts i and t are countries and periods (1996 – 2018), β1 ... β6 is the coefficient of the explanatory variable, β0 is the intercept, and 𝑒𝑖𝑡 is the error term. the ekc hypothesis (inverted-u shaped) is confirmed only if the coefficient values of β1 > 0 and β2 < 0. the ekc turning point can be obtained through equation 2. 𝑡∗ = 𝑒𝑥𝑝(−𝛽1/2𝛽2) (2) operational variables deforestation is the removal of forest cover and changes in vegetation from forestry to non-forestry (hosonuma et al., 2012). deforestation is proxied by net rates of forest changes, as used by waluyo & terawaki (2016). the net deforestation rate was obtained using equation 3. 𝐹𝐶𝑖𝑡 denotes the forest cover area (%) of country i in period t. the positive value of 𝐷𝐸𝐹𝑖𝑡 represents that forests in the current period (t) are lower than in the prior period (t-1), deforestation is indicated, and vice versa. 𝐷𝐸𝐹𝑖𝑡 = (𝐹𝐶𝑖𝑡−1 − 𝐹𝐶𝑖𝑡) 𝐹𝐶𝑖𝑡⁄ (3) per capita income was measured according to the per capita gdp value at constant prices in 2015, following previous studies by ajanaku & collins (2021) and caravaggio (2020). the quadratic variable of per capita gdp was established to test the ekc hypothesis. the gdp coefficient is expected to be positive, while the gdp2 coefficient is supposed to be negative, so the link between per capita gdp and deforestation follows the inverted-u curve, which supports the ekc hypothesis. trade openness was calculated using the ratio between total trade (exports + imports) and gdp. trade openness is categorized as the underlying factor of deforestation. the empirical findings of faria and almeida (2016) and kustanto (2022) confirm that trade openness and globalization are the top drivers of deforestation in tropical forests. in this research, governance is considered a fundamental factor that prevents practices leading to forest depletion. ajanaku and collins (2021) found that political rights and civil independence have a negative and significant impact on deforestation. this study opted for corruption control index as the proxy for governance. this index measures the extent to which public power is used for personal gain (smalland large-scale corruption) and arrests based on elite and private interests. the corruption control index is published by the world governance indicator (wgi). the index ranges from -2.5 to 2.5. a higher index indicates better governance. to tackle the omitted variable bias (ovb) issue, this research includes control variables related to agricultural and demographic factors. previous studies indicate that they are prominent drivers of forest cover change (nathaniel & bekun, 2020; yameogo, 2021; acheampong et al., 2019; ngwira & watanabe, 2019; plata-rocha et al., 2021). agriculture is proxied by arable land area (% of land area), while demography is proxied by population growth rate (%). arable land and population growth are expected to have a positive destiartono & ekananda deforestation-induced the ekc framework: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 88 impact on deforestation. table 1 summarizes research variables, a unit of measurement, and expected signs. table 1 summary of research variables variable unit of measurement source 𝜷 exp. def net deforestation rate (%) wdi gdp gdp per capita (constant 2015 us$) wdi + gdp2 gdp per capita (constant 2015 us$) squared wdi; author’s calculation trade the ratio of export plus import over gdp (%) wdi + cor control of corruption index (-2.5 – 2.5) wgi + arable share of arable land (%) wdi + popg population growth rate (%) wdi + estimation method this study utilizes the panel ardl (pmg) procedure to examine the nexus between per capita income, openness, governance, and deforestation under the ekc theory. prior to executing the pmg method, this article conducted stationary and cointegration tests. the stationary check is essential for avoiding spurious regression and checking the model fit. the nature of the ardl model can only be applied if there is a combination of variable stationarity at the level and first differentiation (ekananda, 2022). hence, this article uses the unit root detection proposed by levin et al. (2002). llc calls for adf equations to test stationarity. ∆𝑦𝑖𝑡 = (1 − 𝜌)𝑦𝑖𝑡−1 + ∑𝜃∆𝑦 𝑞𝑖 𝑗=1 + 𝑍𝑖𝑡 ∗ 𝛿 + 𝑒𝑖𝑡 (4) where 𝑦𝑖𝑡 = a variable in the form of panel data, ∆ = differentiation, q = a number of adf regression lags, 𝜃 = the coefficient of ∆𝑌𝑖𝑡−1, z = deterministic component, and 𝑒𝑖𝑡 = error term. llc assumes homogeneity in the autoregressive parameters for all individual panels (𝜌𝑖 = 𝜌) in the initial model. 𝑦𝑖𝑡 is stationary if |𝜌| < 1. the null hypothesis of nonstationary variables is rejected when the corresponding p-value of t-statistics is less than 5% critical value. next, this study applies the cointegration test proposed by kao (1999). the procedure employed the dfand adf-equation tests for the residuals. cointegration signifies the existence of long-run nexus, i.e., the combination of a number of variables that contain unit roots become stationary and integrated in the same order. kao (1999) assumes the homogeneity of the intercept and the slope for individual panels in the first stage of regression. the kao’s residual test can be calculated based on the following procedure (al-mulali et al., 2015): �̂�𝑖𝑡 = 𝜌�̂�𝑖𝑡−1 + ∑𝜛∆𝑒𝑖𝑡−𝑗 𝑝 𝑗=𝑖 + 𝑣𝑖𝑡 (5) destiartono & ekananda deforestation-induced the ekc framework: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 89 �̂�𝑖𝑡 expresses the residual equation. if 𝜌 < 0, cointegration is evident. the adf statistic equation can be formed as follows: 𝐴𝐷𝐹 = 𝑡𝑝 + √6𝑁�̂�𝑣 2�̂�0𝑣⁄ √(2�̂�0𝑣 2�̂�𝑟⁄ ) + (3�̂�𝑣 10�̂�0𝑣 2⁄ ) (6) to verify the long-run relationship, we consider the cointegration tests proposed by pedroni (1999; 2004) as a robustness check. unlike the kao residual test, the method permits intercept heterogeneity and comprehends a trend in an equation (ekananda, 2014). the pedroni test offers seven alternative statistical tests, estimated using within and between-dimension approaches. however, to simplify results, we only consider panel adfand group adf-statistics. then, this research employs the pmg or panel ardl procedure proposed by pesaran et al. (1999). this method accommodates issues concerning panel data heterogeneity and allows for different intercepts and parameters among individuals in the short-run model; however, long-run parameters are assumed to be homogeneous (pesaran et al., 1999). the estimator utilizes maximum likelihood, assumes errors with a normal distribution, and is based on newton-raphson's optimized algorithm. previous studies, however, have applied the mpg method in order to test the existence of the ekc hypothesis (attiaoui et al., 2017; ari & şentürk, 2020; ampon-wireko et al., 2021). the pmg equation (p,q) can be arranged as follows. 𝐷𝐸𝐹𝑖𝑡 = ∑𝜋𝑖𝑗 ′ 𝐷𝐸𝐹𝑖𝑡−𝑗 𝑝 𝑖=1 + ∑𝜔𝑖𝑗 ′ 𝑞 𝑗=0 𝑋𝑖𝑡−𝑗 + 𝑣𝑖 + 𝑖𝑡 (7) where j denotes the number of lag, 𝜈𝑖 represents fixed effect, and x shows the vector of independent variables. the error correction equation is formed through equation 8. ∆𝐷𝐸𝐹𝑖𝑡 = 𝜙𝑖[𝐷𝐸𝐹𝑖𝑡−1 − 𝛼𝑖 ′𝑋𝑖𝑡] + ∑ 𝜋𝑖𝑗 ′ ∆𝐷𝐸𝐹𝑖𝑡−𝑗 𝑝−1 𝑗=1 + ∑ 𝜔𝑖𝑗 ′ 𝑞−1 𝑗=0 ∆𝑋𝑖𝑡−𝑗 +𝑣𝑖 + 𝑖𝑡 (8) where 𝜋𝑖 and 𝜔𝑖 represent the short-run coefficients of the lags of deforestation and explanatory variables. 𝛼𝑖 shows the long-run parameters of the explanatory variables. 𝜙𝑖 denotes the coefficient of error correction term (ect). for verification, the ect parameter must be negative and statistically significant, at least at the 10% level. 𝜙𝑖 demonstrates the speed of adjustment towards long-term equilibrium. finally, this research incorporates a panel causality test. the presence of cointegration among variables verifies that there must be at least, one causal connection; yet, it fails to explain its direction (saidi & ben mbarek, 2016). therefore, this paper performs the dh causality method proposed by dumitrescu and hurlin (2012). several advantages of this method are that it allows cross-sectional dependency problems, heterogeneity of panel destiartono & ekananda deforestation-induced the ekc framework: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 90 data and can be applied to panel structures with large n and t or small n and t (lopez & weber, 2017). the dh causality test adopts the wald statistics. referring to the article of dumitrescu & hurlin (2012), the panel causality equation is arranged as follows. 𝑦𝑖𝑡 = 𝛼𝑖 + ∑ 𝛾𝑖 (𝑘) 𝑦𝑖𝑡−𝑚 𝑘 𝑘=1 + ∑ 𝛽 𝑖 (𝑘) 𝑥𝑖𝑡−𝑚 𝑘 𝑘=1 + 𝜖𝑖𝑡 (9) where 𝑥𝑖𝑡 and 𝑦𝑖𝑡 are assumed to be stationary variables and proven to be cointegrated. t, i, and m denote the period of estimation, country, and lag order, respectively. the null hypothesis of no causal nexus in each subgroup is proposed in the dh causality; whereas, the alternative hypothesis is that there is a causal nexus, at least in one subgroup. the dh causality test comprises three statistics, i.e., the average wald (�̅�), z-bar (𝑧̅), and z-bar tilde (�̃�) statistics (lopez & weber, 2017). result and discussion panel unit root test to begin with the analysis, we check the order of integration of the variables by employing the llc unit root test. we present the outcomes in table 2. the findings reveal that gdp and arable are stationary at level (at a 5% significance level). however, a number of variables, i.e., def, trade, popg, and cor, are stationary after taking the first difference. since the llc test reveals mixed order of integration, i.e., 𝐼(0) and 𝐼(1), the pmg method (panel-ardl) is an appropriate method to examine the nexus between deforestation and explanatory variables. table 2 llc unit root test results level first difference statistic p-value statistic p-value def -1.2468 0.1062 -11.3428*** 0.0000 gdp -1.9681** 0.0245 -8.2684*** 0.0000 trade -0.9967 0.1595 -9.9523*** 0.0000 arable -1.6576** 0.0487 -4.7605*** 0.0000 popg 1.5265 0.9366 -5.0406*** 0.0000 cor 0.1164 0.5463 -6.0727*** 0.0000 note: ** and *** indicate a significance of 5% and 1%, respectively. panel cointegration tests since a number of variables are not stationary at the level, the panel cointegration check is necessary to check the presence of a long-run relationship. table 3 presents the results of the kao residual test. the adf statistic is -2.2840, which is significant at the 5% level. it can be stated that a long-term relationship is evident. def, gdp, gdp2, trade, arable, popg, and cor are cointegrated, i.e., moving together towards long-run equilibrium. for the robustness check, the pedroni (groupand paneladf statistics) and westerlund destiartono & ekananda deforestation-induced the ekc framework: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 91 (variance ratio) also exhibit the presence of cointegration between deforestation and the explanatory variables. table 3 panel cointegration tests method t-statistic p-value kao adf -2.2840** 0.011 pedroni (individual ar) group-adf -7.3665*** 0.000 pedroni (common ar) panel-adf -6.1979*** 0.000 westerlund variance ratio -2.2337** 0.013 note: ** and *** indicate a significance of 5% and 1%, respectively. pmg estimation results the estimated pmg results in table 4 present both the short-run and long-run coefficients and record the impact of explanatory variables on deforestation. based on the automatic lag selection, the ardl (2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2) is the most appropriate model, following the aic method. the long-run pmg results find that the coefficient of gdp is positive, while the coefficient of gdp2 is negative; each of which is significant at the 1% level. these results validate the ekc framework that the nexus between per capita gdp and deforestation is non-linear, i.e., following the u-shaped. the increase in per capita gdp initially drives deforestation; however, after reaching a certain threshold, it generates growth in forest cover. these findings are in line with waluyo & terawaki (2016), caravaggio (2020), adila et al. (2021), and ajanaku and collin (2021). these findings also align with the argument proposed by crespo cuaresma et al. (2017) that the marginal effect of income growth on environmental depletion is strong at the initial development; however, it weakens at the more advanced stages of the economy. based on the coefficient values of β1 and β2, the turning point is reached at the income per capita of usd 26,875, i.e., the advanced stage of economic development. this figure is much higher than previous related studies by kustanto (2022), caravaggio (2020a), adila et al. (2021), and waluyo and terawaki (2016). however, this calculated turning point is relevant because southeast asia is one of the global deforestation hotspots, where forest loss remains substantial (estoque et al., 2019). referring to the ekc turning point of usd 26,875, brunei darussalam is the only emerging country in southeast asia that has passed the turning point. in contrast, the per capita gdp of indonesia, malaysia, thailand, laos, myanmar, vietnam, the philippines, and cambodia is still far below the ekc turning point. these results indicate that deforestation will continue in southeast asia, in line with the advancement of income per capita and economic growth. in other words, output growth causes national welfare to improve, which in turn drives forest cover to decrease. these findings also suggest to policymakers that the integration between development policies and forest governance should be strengthened. improved environmental policies and forest governance can accelerate the threshold of the nexus between gdp per capita and deforestation. another result, the coefficient of trade openness is positive and significant at the 1% level. it can be noted that trade openness is the underlying driver of deforestation in southeast asia. this finding is in line with a previous article conducted by faria and almeida (2016), destiartono & ekananda deforestation-induced the ekc framework: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 92 who reported that openness to trade, either primary or all products, generates forest depletion. openness is an incentive for forest conversion. the main link is that openness caused deforestation through export-oriented agricultural and processed forest products (defries et al., 2010; ajanaku & collins, 2021). the increase in demand for agricultural commodities and processed forestry products will boost tropical countries to expand their agriculture sectors through forest conversion and logging activities. palm oil and timber products are an example of notable export-oriented commodities in southeast asia that cause deforestation (dohong et al., 2017; austin et al., 2019). table 4 pmg estimation results dependent: deforestation coefficient standard error short-run equation gdp 6.43270*** 2.37494 gdp2 -0.31536** 0.14159 trade 1.37076*** 0.15356 cor -0.71906*** 0.12752 arable 0.17693*** 0.01530 popg 0.50326*** 0.18775 error correction ect -0.88848*** 0.25876 long-run equation ∆(def(-1)) -0.16117 0.22396 ∆(gdp) -408.47750 327.92710 ∆(gdp(-1)) 417.60540 341.07720 ∆(gdp2) 26.66266 22.30920 ∆(gdp2(-1)) -29.19596 23.79855 ∆(trade) 0.31645 1.62792 ∆(trade(-1)) 1.13132 1.92194 ∆(cor) 1.30910* 0.75498 ∆(cor(-1)) 1.35803* 0.78587 ∆(arable) 0.44326 0.33045 ∆(arable(-1)) 0.09890 0.15955 ∆(popg) 11.66357 15.60363 ∆(popg(-1)) -8.87007 12.72662 c -32.14371*** 9.43864 note: ∆ denotes the first difference operator. the lag order is specified using the aic. *, ** and *** indicate a significance of 10%, 5% and 1%, respectively. furthermore, corruption negatively affects deforestation at a 1% level of significance. the negative impact of the corruption control index on the deforestation rate indicates that regions with high levels of corruption tend to have high deforestation rates. this result is in line with the finding of avnimelech & zelekha (2014), who used three measures of corruption; the international country risk guide (icrg), corruption perceptions index (cpi), and business intelligence (bi) index. they negatively affect forest product smuggling and illegal logging. in contrast, corrupt behaviours support forest resource management practices that neglect sustainability principles (pachmann, 2018). this finding shows that control over corrupt practices is indispensable in combating deforestation and supporting sustainable forest governance. concerning the control variables, the empirical estimation reveals that the coefficients for arable land and population growth are positive and significant at a 1% level, confirming destiartono & ekananda deforestation-induced the ekc framework: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 93 that both are the drivers of deforestation. the agricultural expansion generates the forest cover to decrease. this finding aligns with a previous study by austin et al. (2019), who reported that both small and large-scale agricultures were the driver of deforestation. next, the positive impact of population growth on deforestation aligns with the neomalthusian hypothesis and previous research of ngwira and watanabe (2019), who found that rapid population growth was strongly associated with deforestation. in practice, growing population size will be followed by expanded land demand for housing, cattle ranching (grazing), and foodand non-food crops, which drive forest conversion (richards & friess, 2016; hughes, 2017). finally, the estimation results of the long-run pmg must be confirmed using the short-run ect model. the short-run pmg model shows that the ect coefficient is negative (-0.888) and significant at the 1% level. there is a confirmed long-term equilibrium. the existence of shocks in the short run will be corrected by independent variables with 0.89 units of speed toward long-run equilibrium. dh causality test results this section discusses the causal connection between deforestation, per capita income, corruption, and trade openness, employing the heterogenous panel causality method proposed by dumitrescu and hurlin (2012). the results are displayed in table 5. there is a bidirectional causality between deforestation and control of corruption, implying that governance has a feedback effect from forest degradation. a change in the corruption index will cause a shift in the deforestation rates and vice versa. these findings also point out that the existence of forests is an incentive for corrupt practices. table 5 pairwise dh causality test t: 1996 – 2018, n: 9 n: 153 lags: 3 𝑯𝟎 �̅̅̅� �̅� p-value gdp →def 10.17290 5.50683*** 0.000 def → gdp 3.36819 -0.14729 0.883 trade → def 7.02337 2.88982*** 0.004 def → trade 4.44805 0.74998 0.453 cor → def 12.70460 7.61043*** 0.000 def → cor 7.01338 2.88152*** 0.004 trade → gdp 4.12859 0.48453 0.628 gdp → trade 8.33763 3.98185*** 0.000 cor → gdp 3.72417 0.14849 0.882 gdp → cor 8.68606 4.27136*** 0.000 cor → trade 7.80269 3.53736*** 0.000 trade → cor 4.68545 0.94723 0.344 note: (→) represents the direction of causality. ). �̅� and 𝑧̅ are the average wald and zbar statistics, respectively. the lag length selection is based on information criterion (aic, sc, and hq. ** and *** denote a significance of 5% and 1%, respectively. destiartono & ekananda deforestation-induced the ekc framework: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 94 other findings, there are unidirectional causalities: from trade openness and per capita gdp toward deforestation. the one-way causality from per capita gdp to deforestation is in line with previous studies by waluyo and terawaki (2016), ajanaku and collins (2021), and yameogo (2021). this finding implies that deforestation is not the driver of the change in per capita income. on the contrary, a change in per capita gdp significantly causes changes in the forest cover. in addition, changes in trade openness also lead to changes in the deforestation rate. these findings support the pmg estimation results, confirming that commercial liberalization is the significant driver of forest degradation in southeast asia. nonetheless, the unidirectional causality of per capita gdp towards deforestation represents that the region has an excellent potential to promote economic development programs while simultaneously reducing the deforestation rate. promoting forest-friendly products trade and strengthening controls over corruption are conceivable policies to combat deforestation. conclusion achieving net zero deforestation and sustainable economic development remains a substantial challenge for southeast asia. deforestation, along with forest degradation and fragmentation, is an factual form of environmental degradation caused by the expansion of agriculture, the development of public infrastructure, and a lack of robust governance that neglect sustainable development principles. nevertheless, the underlying cause of forest depletion is still in debate. hence, this empirical study presents empirical evidence about the relationship between gdp, trade openness, corruption, and deforestation rates in southeast asia in the ekc hypothesis by considering the impact of agricultural and demographic factors. this research employs pooled data from nine developing countries in southeast asia from 1996 to 2018. pmg and dh causality methods were applied to investigate the long-term nexus and the direction of causality. cointegration between deforestation, per capita gdp, trade openness, and control of corruption is strongly evident. the estimation results support the ekc hypothesis that the relationship between per capita gdp and deforestation rate follows the inverted-u curve. the threshold for per capita gdp is usd 26,875, i.e., the stage of advanced economic development. we emphasize that deforestation will continue because southeast asia is still dominated by lower-middle-income countries with per capita gdp that is still far from the threshold. brunei is the only sample that has passed the turning point. southeast asia is enjoying the effects of scale of development so that an increase in income per capita will be followed by deforestation. other findings are that trade openness is the driver of deforestation, while governance (control over corruption) is the suitable instrument to reduce the deforestation rate. for the record, there are unidirectional causalities from income per capita and trade openness toward deforestation. a development economy that simultaneously reduces deforestation rates should likely be enforced. we emphasize that robust integration between economic growth programs, trade policies, and forestry resource governance must be improved to reduce deforestation rates, promote forest cover to increase, and accelerate the ekc turning point. furthermore, reconstructing the quality of national institutions through strengthening control over corruption is required to prevent 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(2014). analisis empiris enviromental kuznets curve (ekc) terkait orientasi energi. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan, 15(2), 161–170. https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/1232 https://doi.org/https:/doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-12-409548-9.09278-2 https://doi.org/10.1177/0731121420908900 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2012.06.014 https://doi.org/10.18196/jesp.21.1.5033 https://doi.org/https:/doi.org/10.3390/su11164364 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10018-012-0051-5 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-04696-z https://doi.org/10.18196/jesp.v22i2.10533 https://jecd.sesric.org/pdf.php?file=art15031901-2.pdf https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.07.030 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-12071-6 https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/1232 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 23 no 2, october 2022 article type: research paper economic growth, human capital, public investment, and poverty in underdeveloped regions in indonesia taosige wau abstract: poverty is a worldwide issue since its effects are widespread. in indonesia, most pockets of poverty are found in rural or underdeveloped areas. this research is essential as a reference for addressing the issue of poverty in indonesia's undeveloped regions, as few studies have analyzed the causes of poverty in underdeveloped regions. this study analyses the impact of economic growth, human capital, and public investment on the alleviation of poverty in indonesia’s undeveloped regions. this study employs panel data from 62 underprivileged regions in indonesia according to presidential decree no. 63 of 2020 with an observation period of 2010-2020. the analytical method used is the ecm panel model. the unit root test indicates that the research data is steady and cointegrated at the first level of differentiation. this study demonstrates that economic growth does not have a substantial influence on poverty levels in underdeveloped areas of indonesia, although human capital and public investment do, both in the short and long term. human capital contributes more to reducing poverty in disadvantaged areas, but state investment increases the number of poor in indonesia's underdeveloped regions. keywords: economic growth; human capital; public investment; poverty; underdeveloped region jel classification: i32; r11; e24; r53 introduction poverty is a worldwide phenomenon that occurs in nearly all nations (xiao et al., 2022) because the problem of poverty exists in practically every nation in the world. poverty issues color the development process in a country (todaro, 2011). so that the problem of poverty becomes a social problem because those who are classified as poor are not able to carry out responsibilities like people who are not poor, are unable to carry out social functions, are unable to take quality education, do not have a decent standard of living, have limited access to health services, and access to health services or other basic services (maipita, 2014). various limitations faced by the poor can trigger various social problems, such as crime, theft, disobedience to rules, and various other social problems (lymperopoulou & bannister, 2022). affiliation: department of sharia economics, faculty of islamic economics and business, state islamic university sunan kalijaga, special region of yogyakarta, indonesia *correspondence: taosnisel@gmail.com this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v23i2.15307 citation: wau, t. (2022). economic growth, human capital, public investment, and poverty in underdeveloped regions in indonesia. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 23(2), 189-200. article history received: 04 jul 2022 revised: 10 sep 2022 05 oct 2022 accepted: 06 oct 2022 https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?user=ubw0zfgaaaaj&hl=en&oi=ao https://es.uin-suka.ac.id/ https://es.uin-suka.ac.id/ https://es.uin-suka.ac.id/ https://es.uin-suka.ac.id/ https://es.uin-suka.ac.id/ mailto:taosnisel@gmail.com http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/15307 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v23i2.15307&domain=pdf wau economic growth, human capital, public investment, and poverty … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 190 since the poor are synonymous with low productivity, low education, bad health, and other constraints, their income and purchasing power are generally low (todaro, 2011). consequently, the contribution of the poor to national output is comparatively diminished (thorbecke & ouyang, 2022; xiao et al., 2022). there are numerous causes of the dynamics of poverty. low economic growth resulting from population expansion is one of the factors that raise poverty (todaro, 2011). it is because low economic development resulting from population growth affects per capita income, and the number of individuals living below the poverty increases (maipita, 2014; permadi, 2018; todaro, 2011). multiple empirical studies have demonstrated that rapid economic growth can reduce poverty in the nile river basin (lin et al., 2022) and in emerging nations, particularly in sub-saharan africa (thorbecke & ouyang, 2022). according to kuznets, growth and poverty have a strong correlation because the poverty rate tends to rise in the early phases of development (sarigiannidou & palivos, 2012) and then steadily decreases in the later stages. the hypothesis has been demonstrated and provided evidence that economic growth at a certain level can reduce poverty levels (handalani, 2019; permadi, 2018; septiadi, 2019; wardhana & kharisma, 2019). in addition to economic growth, the quality of human resources (human capital) is a determinant of poverty (handalani, 2019). in underdeveloped areas, the high poverty rate is frequently the result of a low-quality labor supply (geng & guo, 2021). therefore, by increasing the ability of the poor through education and health care, it will increase their productivity and help them escape poverty (olopade et al., 2019). the results of empirical studies indicate that building human capital through enhancing education and health can reduce poverty levels (masduki et al., 2022; olopade et al., 2019). public investment expenditures are another factor that can affect poverty levels. the public investment made by the government or local government is one of the driving forces behind economic growth (mustaqimah et al., 2017). public investment can improve infrastructure, especially agricultural infrastructure in rural regions, which will stimulate farmers' productivity and facilitate farmers’ access to markets for the sale of agricultural products, hence increasing farmers' revenue (etuk & ayuk, 2021). the increase in farmers' income can finally release them from the screams of poverty (nanhthavong et al., 2020). government spending also reflects the costs incurred by the government to implement its policies, particularly in the provision of public services, such as in the fields of education and health care (misdawita & sari, 2013). the results of empirical studies show that government funding in the education and health sectors reduces poverty dramatically (mustaqimah et al., 2017; prasetyia et al., 2011). while other studies conclude that government spending on education has a negative influence on poverty, after incorporating the variables of economic growth, literacy rate, and unemployment, the value becomes positive or can increase poverty (wardhana & kharisma, 2019). another study in the education sector using per capita income as a mediator demonstrates that education has a negative and significant impact on poverty (purnomo wau economic growth, human capital, public investment, and poverty … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 191 et al., 2020). as seen in figure 1, poverty statistics in indonesia are highly fluid. despite a decline over the past decade, the number of poor people in indonesia remains very high. in 2011, the population living below the poverty line was 12.49 percent (30.02 million people); however, in 2019, that number dropped to 9.41 percent (25.14 million people). in 2020, it increased to 9.78 percent (26.42 million people) as a result of the worldwide pandemic of covid-19. figure 1 poverty trend by region in indonesia source: indonesian central bureau of statistics according to data on poverty, rural areas have the highest number of destitute people. this illustrates that the pockets of poverty in indonesia are concentrated in rural areas where agriculture is the dominant economic sector. therefore, the problem of poverty in rural areas, which generally predominates in underdeveloped areas, becomes interesting to research since it has its own characteristics of poverty. the research findings that examine the problem of poverty in indonesia are devoted to analyzing the factors that determine poverty in indonesia. previous researchers used provincial data in their study (ningsih & andiny, 2018; yasa & arka, 2015; prasetyia et al., 2011; soleh, 2015; wardhana & kharisma, 2019) or district/city (hermawati, 2013; nopriansyah et al., 2015; suadnyani & darsana, 2018) as the unit of analysis. research that examines on the drivers of poverty in underdeveloped regions of indonesia has been carried out (masduki et al., 2022), where government spending is used as the independent variable. however, this study only focuses on disadvantaged areas on the island of java as the research subject. meanwhile, the presidential decree number 63 of 2020 stipulates that underdeveloped regions in indonesia are dominated by regions outside java, as presented in table 1. thus, analyzing the determinants of poverty in underdeveloped regions as stipulated in the presidential decree is a novelty in this research. 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 urban rural urban+rural wau economic growth, human capital, public investment, and poverty … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 192 table 1 the list of underdevelopment regencies in indonesia province disadvantaged district total sumatera utara (1) nias, (2) nias selatan, (3) nias utara, (4) nias barat 4 sumatera barat (5) kepulauan mentawai 1 sumatera selatan (6) musi rawas utara 1 lampung (7) pesisir barat 1 nusa tenggara barat (8) lombok utara 1 nusa tenggara timur (9) sumba barat, (10) sumba timur, (11) kupang, (12) timor tengah selatan, (13) belu, (14) alor, (15) lembata, (16) rote ndao, (17) sumba tengah, (18) sumba barat daya, (19) manggarai timur, (20) sabu raijua, (21) malaka 13 sulawesi tengah (22) donggala, (23) tojo una-una, (24) sigi 3 maluku (25) maluku tenggara barat, (26) kepulauan aru, (27) seram bagian barat, (28) seram bagian timur, (29) maluku barat daya, (30) buru selatan 6 maluku utara (31) kepulauan sula, (32) pulau taliabu 2 papua barat (33) teluk wondama, (34) teluk bintuni, (35) sorong selatan, (36) sorong, (37) tambrauw, (38) maybrat, (39) manokwari selatan, (40) pegunungan arfak 8 papua (41) jayawijaya, (42) nabire, (43) paniai, (44) puncak jaya, (45) boven digoel, (46) mappi, (47) asmat, (48) yahukimo, (49) pegunungan bintang, (50) tolikara, (51) keerom, (52) waropen, (53) supiori, (54) mamberamo raya, (56) lanny jaya, (57) mamberamo tengah, (58) yalimo, (59) puncak, (60), dogiyai, (61) intan jaya, (62) deiyai 22 sources: presidential decree no. 63, 2020 thus, the analysis of the factors affecting poverty in indonesia’s undeveloped regions, as regulated in presidential decree number 63 of 2020, becomes intriguing when it is considered that problems in underdeveloped regions have their own characteristics. therefore, this study will examine the effect of economic growth, human capital, and public investment on poverty in indonesia’s undeveloped regions. the findings of this study are expected to be a reference for policymakers attempting to alleviate poverty in indonesia’s undeveloped regions. through this study, information on the effects of economic growth, human capital, and public investment will be beneficial in formulating poverty alleviation policy strategies in indonesia’s undeveloped regions. as required by a presidential decree, stimulating economic growth, boosting human capital, and expanding public investment, which in the end, can have an impact on reducing poor areas in indonesia. research method this study utilizes secondary panel data consisting of 62 districts classed as undeveloped pursuant to presidential decree no. 63 of 2020 for the period 2011 to 2020. the selection of this time frame is intended to illustrate the persistent nature of poverty in wau economic growth, human capital, public investment, and poverty … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 193 disadvantaged areas in the long term. the data for this study comes from the indonesian central statistics agency (bps) and other pertinent institutions. based on the literature review, it revealed that economic growth, human capital, and public investment contribute to poverty reduction. thus, the independent variables used in this study are economic growth as measured by grdp per capita, human capital as assessed by the average number of years spent in school, and public investment as measured by direct spending. comparatively, the dependent variable is the number of poor people in the area under this study. this research employs a dynamic panel regression model with an error correction model (ecm) approach to explain the shortand long-term dynamics of poverty in underdeveloped regions. the ecm approach is based on the findings of the stationary research data stationarity test at the same level of differentiation utilizing the augmented dickey-fuller (adf), philips perron, and levin, lin & chu (llc) methods, as well as the cointegration relationship between model variables. because a non-stationary time series data regression model is more likely to produce erroneous regression results (granger & newbold, 1974). this is based on the hypothesis that each individual time series data contains a unit root (levin et al., 2002). therefore, the cointegration test is used to determine the long-term relationship between variables in the model. based on the theoretical framework that underlies this research, this research is modeled using the panel data regression model as follows: log 𝑃𝑉𝑖𝑡 = 𝛼0 + 𝛼1 log 𝐺𝑅𝑖𝑡 + 𝛼2 log 𝐻𝐶𝑖𝑡 + 𝛼3 log 𝑃𝐼𝑖𝑡 + 𝜀𝑖𝑡 (1) where 𝑃𝑉𝑖𝑡 is the poverty level, 𝐺𝑅𝑖𝑡 is economic growth, 𝐻𝐶𝑖𝑡 is human capital, and 𝑃𝐼𝑖𝑡 is public investment. while 𝛼0 , 𝛼1 , 𝛼2 , and 𝛼3 are constants and regression coefficients and 𝜀𝑖𝑡 is the model residual, where index i indicates the unit of analysis or area and t is the unit of time. the research model in equation (1) describes the relationship of the independent variable to the dependent variable in the short run. while the long-term relationship can be explained using the following ecm model: ∆ log 𝑃𝑉𝑖𝑡 = 𝛽0 + 𝛽1∆ log 𝐺𝑅𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽2∆ log 𝐻𝐶𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽3∆ log 𝑃𝐼𝑖𝑡 + 𝐸𝐶𝑖𝑡 + 𝑢𝑖𝑡 (2) where 𝐸𝐶𝑖𝑡 is an error correction term that is calculated by the following formula: 𝐸𝐶𝑇𝑖𝑡 = log 𝑃𝑉𝑖𝑡 − 𝛼0 − 𝛼1 log 𝐺𝑅𝑖𝑡 − 𝛼2 log 𝐻𝐶𝑖𝑡 − 𝛼3 log 𝑃𝐼𝑖𝑡 (3) the panel data regression model in equations (1) and (2) is estimated using three approaches, namely: (a) common effect model (cem); (b) fixed effect model (fem); and (c) random effect model (rem). from the three approaches to the panel data regression model, one of the best models was then selected through the model specification test. wau economic growth, human capital, public investment, and poverty … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 194 the specification tests for the panel data regression model are: (a) the chow test; (b) the hausman test; (c) the lagrange multiplier test (widarjono, 2018). from the results of selecting the best model through the chow test, hausman test, and lm test, the model assumption test was conducted. the significance of the variables employed in the mode was then assessed, either partially (t-test) or simultaneously (ftest), and the goodness of fit was evaluated using the coefficient of determination test. result and discussion the descriptive data used in this study are presented in table 2. the observations used were 682 units consisting of 62 cross-section units and 11 time periods. poverty in undeveloped areas is measured by the number of people living below the poverty line, whereas grdp per capita measures economic growth, the average duration of schooling measures human capital, and direct local government spending measures public expenditures. the average number of poor people in undeveloped areas in indonesia during the study period was 34.48 thousand people, and the highest was in timor tengah selatan district, namely 144.01 in 2015. table 2 descriptive statistics statistics variable pv gr hc bl mean 34.48 22.52 5.84 459.89 median 28.00 12.70 6.25 443.93 maximum 144.01 394.07 10.00 1912.39 minimum 2.52 3.15 0.25 13.16 std. dev. 24.84 47.43 2.05 214.09 observations 682 682 682 682 table 3 stationarity test data variable stationer at level stationer at first difference adf test pp test llc test adf test pp test llc test 𝑃𝑉𝑖𝑡 168.59*** 204.47*** -23.54*** 407.78*** 444.11*** -33.24*** 𝐺𝑅𝑖𝑡 117.84 134.04 -10.52*** 334.28*** 355.84*** -80.72*** 𝐻𝐶𝑖𝑡 139.06* 176.53*** -8.99*** 415.43*** 425.14*** -35.25*** 𝑃𝐼𝑖𝑡 113.14 122.18 -3.86*** 367.19*** 417.74*** -22.15*** note: *** significant in α 1%; ** significant in α 5%; * significant in α 10% furthermore, the results of the unit root test through the adf test, the philips perron test, and the levin, lin & chu test are presented in table 3. the results of the unit root test show that the utilized study data is steady at the initial difference. thus, the stationarity requirement for employing the ecm approach has been satisfied. the estimation of the long-term panel data model based on the common effect, fixed effect, and random effects approach are shown in table 4. then, from the three models, the best model selection test was carried out using the chow test, hausman test, and lm wau economic growth, human capital, public investment, and poverty … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 195 test, as shown in table 5. the f-value of the chow test is 46.95 and is statistically significant, showing that the fem model is superior to the cem model. the results of this test were then strengthened by a statistically significant and test value of 10.47 for the hausman test. therefore, the long-term panel model is a fixed-effect model. table 4 long-term panel model estimation variable coefficient common effect fixed effect random effect c 3.0081*** 3.2806*** 3.2838*** log 𝐺𝑅𝑖𝑡 -0.3854*** -0.0566 -0.0849*** log 𝐻𝐶𝑖𝑡 0.0196 -0.4639*** -0.4153** log 𝑃𝐼𝑖𝑡 0.2088*** 0.1530*** 0.1514*** 𝑅2 0,1153 0,8307 0,1142 dependent variable: log(𝑃𝑉𝑖𝑡 ) note: *** significant in α 1%; ** significant in α 5%; * significant in α 10% table 5 long-term panel model specification test result chow test hausman test breusch-pagan test statistic 46.9555 10.4684 2193.7860 prob. 0.0000 0.0150 0.0000 according to table 6, the residual of the long-term panel model is stationary at the level determined by the adf test and the philips perron test. this finding illustrates that the fixed-effects panel data regression model estimates a cointegrated connection. consequently, the model can be estimated using an error correction model (ecm) approach, where the cointegration test can only be performed on models with data that integrate to the same degree (engle & granger, 1987). table 6 cointegration test result adf test philips perron test statistic 146.799 169.218 prob. 0.0209 0.0006 table 7 presents the estimation results of the ecm panel model. the estimation of the ecm panel model employs the common effect, fixed effect and random methods. in the third approach, the ect variable shows a negative sign and is statistically significant. these findings indicate that the ecm panel model is applicable (engle & granger, 1987). table 7 short-term panel model estimation variable coefficient common effect fixed effect random effect c 0.0073 0.0074 0.0073 d(log 𝐺𝑅𝑖𝑡 ) -0.0125 -0.0100 -0.0125 d(log 𝐻𝐶𝑖𝑡 ) -0.4971*** -0.4976*** -0.4971*** d(log 𝑃𝐼𝑖𝑡 ) 0.0594*** 0.0564*** 0.0594*** ect(-1) -0.2589*** -0.2378*** -0.2589*** 𝑅2 0,2475 0,3067 0,2475 dependent variabel: d(log(𝑃𝑉𝑖𝑡 )) note: *** significant in α 1%; ** significant in α 5%; * significant in α 10% wau economic growth, human capital, public investment, and poverty … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 196 the estimation results of the ecm panel model are then subjected to the chow test, hausman test, and lm test to determine the optimal model. the test results are shown in table 8. table 8 long-term panel model specification test result chow test hausman test breusch-pagan test statistic 0.8604 37.4305 1.3538 prob. 0.7542 0.0000 0.2446 the short-term panel model specification test results show that the common effects model is better than other models according to the chow test and lm (breusch-pagan) test results. thus, the short-term panel model is estimated using the common effects model. based on the results of the preceding data analysis, the panel data models for the study, including both short-term and long-term models, are presented in table 9. table 9 short-term and long-term panel models variable coefficient short-term long-term c 0.0073 3.2806*** log 𝐺𝑅𝑖𝑡 -0.0125 -0.0566 log 𝐻𝐶𝑖𝑡 -0.4971*** -0.4639*** log 𝑃𝐼𝑖𝑡 0.0594*** 0.1530*** ect(-1) -0.2589*** 𝑅2 0.2475 0.8307 note: *** significant in α 1%; ** significant in α 5%; * significant in α 10% the economic growth variable used in this study has no substantial shortor long-term effect on poverty in undeveloped regions of indonesia. this indicates that economic expansion in indonesia’s impoverished regions has not been able to reduce the number of poor people. this result contradicts the findings of prior research, which showed that economic growth lowered poverty levels in developing and underdeveloped regions of the nile river basin (lin et al., 2022). even the results of research in sub-saharan countries show that economic growth in emerging nations can reduce poverty rates rapidly (thorbecke & ouyang, 2022), and the results of research utilizing indonesian data demonstrate that economic expansion reduces poverty (adha et al., 2018). this is due to the fact that economic growth in indonesia’s undeveloped regions is relatively low, averaging 3.62 percent for the research period. thus, efforts are needed to encourage faster economic growth in order to make economic growth an instrument for alleviating poverty in underdeveloped regions. there are different findings on the human capital variable. human capital significantly influences poverty rates in underdeveloped areas of indonesia, both in the short and long term. interestingly, this variable has a negative coefficient sign and is the most influential of all the model variables. this indicates that human capital, as proxied by the average number of years spent on schooling, significantly contributes to an attempt to reduce wau economic growth, human capital, public investment, and poverty … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 197 poverty in underdeveloped regions in indonesia. this finding is consistent with that of masduki et al. (2022) and olopade et al. (2019) in that a 10-percent increase in the average level of education can reduce the number of poor individuals by 4.5 percent. this finding shows that human capital plays a significant role in poverty alleviation efforts in indonesia’s impoverished regions. given the large influence of human capital in efforts to reduce poverty in these findings, local governments, especially in undeveloped regions, need to increase the number of years spent on schooling in their regions through various programs such as scholarships, public awareness of the importance of education, improving the quality of basic education and secondary education, and the development of adequate educational infrastructure to remote areas, among other programs that support education. it is hoped that this program will produce productive and high-quality human resources. increasing the productivity of disadvantaged areas due to human capital improvements will reduce the number of poor people. improving the quality and productivity of the poor can lead to improved output or economic growth (anwar, 2018) and aid in poverty reduction. in addition to human capital, public investment has a substantial shortand long-term impact on poverty levels in underdeveloped regions of indonesia. however, the coefficient of the public investment variable is positive. this indicates that increasing public investment in indonesia’s undeveloped regions increases the number of poor people. the number of impoverished people grows by 0.59 percent in the near term and 1.53 percent in the long run for every 10 percent increase in public investment. this result contradicts the findings of previous studies, which showed that increased public investment reduces the poverty rate in java’s undeveloped regions (masduki et al., 2022). in other words, public investment programs in underprivileged regions outside java have a different effect than public investment in areas on the island of java. this could be attributed to the persistence of corruption that is still entrenched in various regions in indonesia, especially in underprivileged areas. thus, to make public investment an instrument of public policy that contributes to reducing poverty levels in underdeveloped regions, each local government must be subject to rigorous monitoring. in addition, all stakeholders must be made aware of the importance of poverty alleviation so that the planned development programs can be implemented with minimal misuse and contribute to the reduction of poverty. conclusion this study attempts to analyze the effect of economic growth, human capital, and public investment on poverty in indonesia’s undeveloped regions. this study employs panel data from 62 impoverished regions in indonesia, as stipulated by presidential regulation number 63 of 2020, with an analysis period spanning 2010-2020. the data analysis method is employed the ecm regression model. the results of the data analysis indicate that the increase in economic growth does not considerably contribute to this study. in wau economic growth, human capital, public investment, and poverty … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 198 the meanwhile, human capital and public investment variables have a significant influence on both the shortand long-term. this finding explains how increasing human capital might alleviate poverty in underdeveloped regions. in the meantime, public investments made by local governments have not been able to reduce poverty and have even exacerbated it in underdeveloped regions. this finding provides information that public investment made by local governments has not yet reached the desired target; therefore, it must be reassessed. the limitation of this research is that it has not been able to offer comprehensive information regarding local government programs that have been implemented. this information must be presented to underscore the fact that development programs in impoverished countries exacerbate poverty. consequently, it is believed that further research will reveal local government programs that are responsible for the increase in poverty. this information will assist local governments in targeting development programs that increase the number of poor people to cease and continue development programs that can reduce the number of poor people in underdeveloped regions. acknowledgment the author expresses his deepest gratitude and highest appreciation to lppm uin sunan kalijaga yogyakarta, which funded this research through the 2021 boptn research scheme. the funding that has been received has greatly assisted the author in conducting this research from beginning to end. references adha, m. a., nahar, f. h., & azizurrohman, m. 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(2015). pengaruh pertumbuhan ekonomi dan disparitas pendapatan antardaerah terhadap kesejahteraan masyarakat provinsi bali. e-jurnal ekonomi pembangunan universitas udaya, 4(2), 129–137. retrieved from https://ojs.unud.ac.id/index.php/jekt/article/view/16494 https://www.jurnal.unismabekasi.ac.id/index.php/optimal/article/view/1850 https://doi.org/10.37676/ekombis.v2i2.15 https://ojs.unud.ac.id/index.php/eep/article/view/38745 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2021.105776 https://ojs.unud.ac.id/index.php/eeb/article/view/55712 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2021.101729 https://ojs.unud.ac.id/index.php/jekt/article/view/16494 studi efektivitas pelayanan publik di kecamatan kejaksan kota cirebon jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 65 76 deteksi faktor penyebab inflasi di purwokerto rahmat priyono 1 dan endang setiasih 1 1 fakultas ekonomi universitas jenderal soedirman purwokerto jalan h.r. boenyamin 708 purwokerto telp. 0281-635292 e-mail: priyonorakhmat@gmail.com abstrak: penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mendeteksi faktor penyebab inflasi di purwokerto. mengingat inflasi di wilayah ini lebih tidak stabil daripada kota-kota lain di sekitarnya. pada bulan desember 2008, kota-kota di sekitar purwokerto mengalami deflasi sedangkan di kota purwokerto justru terjadi inflasi positif. model yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah model vector autoregressive (var). hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa bahwa penawaran uang m1, tingkat bunga konsumsi, tingkat tingkat buga deposito, kurs tukar rupiah/dolar amerika, indeks kepercayaan konsumen, dan harga minyak mempunyai pengaruh yang signifikan pada tingkat inflasi. model terbaik autoregresi ini adalah dengan lag pertama dan lag keenam. penawaran uang dengan proxy cash flow dari sektor perbankan terhadap sektor riil berpengaruh positif terhadap inflasi. tingkat bunga, pada tingkat bunga konsumsi dan tingkat bunga deposit berpengaruh negatif. total kredit dari perbankan di banyumas berpengaruh negatif. kenaikan kurs mata uang rupiah terhadap dolar amerika berpengaruh positif. sementara itu, tingkat kepercayaan konsumen dari penduduk purwokerto berdampak negatif terhadap inflasi. terakhir, kenaikan harga minyak berdampak langsung terhadap inflasi kata kunci: inflasi, vector autoregressive model, total kredit perbankan, inflation modeling abstract: generally inflation constitute more a problem than a solution because its impact to all economic conditions. inflation phenomena in purwokerto is necessary to research. inflation in this region is more unstable than other cities. december 2008, even other cities had deflation situation, positive inflation occurred in purwokerto. inflation modeling by vector autoregressive model (var), it is find out money supply (m1), consumption interest rate, deposit interest rate, rupiah/us dollar exchange rate, consumers trust index, and oil price have significant impact to inflation rate. best model is produced by 1st to 6th lag auto regression factors. it means relatively the current inflation was effected by 1st – 6th months before. other result, money supply with proxy by cash flow from banking sector to rill sector has positive impact to inflation. interest rates, by means consumption interest rate and deposit interest rate, have negative impact. total credit from banyumas banking has negative effect. increasing of rupiah currency to us dollar has positive impact. while consumers trust of purwokerto resident has negative impact to inflation. last, price oil increasing has positive inflation effect directly. keywords: inflation, vector autoregressive model, total kredit perbankan, inflation modeling pendahuluan faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi inflasi sangat banyak. ada faktor-faktor yang bisa dikendalikan pemerintah melalui suku bunga dan ada yang tidak bisa. secara konseptual, sasaran inflasi (inflation targetting) ditetapkan berdasarkan perkembangan dan proyeksi arah pergerakan ekonomi ke depan terutama karena adanya social loss (kerugian sosial) jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 65 76 66 akibat trade-off antara inflasi dan pertumbuhan ekonomi. penargetan inflasi tidak hanya berguna untuk mengatasi inflasi yang rendah, tetapi juga merupakan upaya potensial bagi pemulihan (remediasi) dari inflasi yang tinggi dan persisten. implementasi kerangka kerja penargetan inflasi di indonesia didasarkan atas pertimbangan adanya trade-off jangka pendek antara tujuan pertumbuhan ekonomi dengan kestabilan harga (hutabarat, 2001). svensson (1998) menambahkan bahwa penargetan inflasi yang didukung dengan independensi bank sentral akan semakin mampu menghasilkan tujuan kebijakan tingkat inflasi yang rendah. mengapa inflasi lebih sering merupakan masalah, brodjonegoro (2008) menyatakan bahwa permasalahan pertama yang paling kritis dalam kebijakan moneter adalah kesulitan pengambil kebijakan dalam mengendalikan laju inflasi. dalam pengertian, memang laju inflasi indonesia relatif rendah, lebih banyak di bawah dua digit, tetapi selalu membutuhkan kerja ekstra keras. selain itu, inflasi yang terjadi juga sangat rentan apabila terjadi gangguan eksternal. ketika terjadi guncangan (shock) eksternal sedikit, seperti kenaikan harga pangan, atau energi, maka secara langsung inflasi menjadi tidak terkontrol melebihi 10 persen. secara teoritis, pada saat perekonomian mengalami pertumbuhan karena kemajuan teknologi, maka perubahan penawaran agregat akan menyebabkan harga dan output bergerak dengan arah yang berlawanan (cover dan pecorino, 2003). namun pada saat ada shocks pada sisi permintaan, maka perubahan permintaan agregat akan menyebabkan korelasi inflasi dan output menjadi positif (cover dan hueng, 2000). tetapi, jika inflasi akibat shock ekonomi maupun kebijakan pemerintah merupakan inflasi yang tak diantisipasi maka inflasi akan berpengaruh penting terhadap aspek kesejahteraan ekonomi. harga-harga akan meningkat lebih cepat daripada tingkat harga yang diperkirakan sebelumnya nilai riil dari seluruh aset akan menurun. dampak lanjutannya adalah akan memperlebar kesenjangan distribusional (doepke and schneider, 2005). untuk mengidentifikasi semua faktor yang relevan berpengaruh terhadap fluktuasi harga, metode vector auto regressive (var) lebih sering diaplikasikan. beberapa penelitian empiris mengenai determinan inflasi dengan menggunakan var telah dilakukan di berbagai negara. kenny g, aidan meyler, dan terry quinn (1998) melakukan prediksi inflasi di irlandia dengan variabel penjelasnya berbagai macam harga komoditas domestik, variabel moneter dan keuangan, aktivitas permintaan ekonomi domestik, harga luar negeri dan harga komoditas dunia. penelitian tersebut dilakukan dengan masa observasi 1979q1 – 1998q1. minella, a. (2001) menginvestigasi kebijakan moneter dan hubungan ekonomi makro meliputi output, tingkat inflasi, tingkat suku bunga, dan uang di brazil. brownie dan cronin (2007) menganalisis kaitan antara harga-harga komoditas dengan tingkat inflasi dengan data di as periode 1959q1 sampai 2005q3. pada penelitian inflasi dengan var lainnya, gottschalk, dkk (2008) meneliti determinan-determinan yang mempengaruhi inflasi di sierra leone dengan periode observasi 2005–2007. martel, s. (2008) mengukur core inflation di kanada dengan variabel penjelas pertumbuhan harga minyak dan pertumbuhan output dengan periode penelitian 1961q1-2005q2. selain itu, galesi a. dan marco j. lomabrdi (2009) meneliti terjadinya transmisi shock minyak dan shock harga makanan ke inflasi dan perekonomian riil meliputi 33 negara dengan periode tahun 1999 sampai dengan 2007. deteksi faktor penyebab inflasi di purwokerto (rahmat p. dan endang setiasih) 67 mengingat pengaruh inflasi pada perekonomian secara luas, penelitian mengenai inflasi daerah perlu dilakukan. karena setiap daerah memiliki karakteristik harga-harga yang unik, maka faktor pendorong munculnya fluktuasi inflasi akan mungkin berbeda antar daerah. di purwokerto, perkembangan inflasi cenderung berbeda dengan daerah lain. tingkat inflasi di purwokerto relatif lebih tinggi daripada tingkat inflasi di daerah lain, khususnya di jawa tengah dan diy. peningkatan inflasi purwokerto terlihat ekstrem pada bulan juni dan juli 2008 yang tercatat lebih dari 2 persen. puncak inflasi terjadi di purwokerto pada bulan juni yaitu sebesar 2,75 persen, lebih tinggi dari semarang dengan inflasi 2,40 persen. (bps jawa tengah, 2009). bukan hanya mencatat rata-rata inflasi tertinggi, inflasi di purwokerto juga tercatat paling fluktuatif. standar deviasi inflasi selama 2008 di purwokerto tercatat paling tinggi dari daerah lain. fluktuasi ini mencerminkan perkembangan harga-harga di purwokerto lebih tidak stabil, lebih bergejolak dan terlihat menjadi lebih sulit terkendali. fenomena lainnya, pada penghujung tahun 2008, purwokerto tercatat sebagai daerah dengan inflasi tertinggi yaitu sebesar positif 0,17 persen, sementara 3 daerah lain menunjukkan tingkat inflasi negatif. hal ini menjadi pertanyaan mengapa daerah lain terjadi perkembangan penurunan harga tetapi di purwokerto terjadi kondisi sebaliknya. anomali ini unik dan menarik untuk dikaji. penelitian mengenai inflasi diperlukan untuk mengetahui bagaimana pola inflasi dan mengetahui sebab-sebab ketidakstabilan harga-harga di wilayah purwokerto. identifikasi ini akan menjadi kajian akademis yang penting sebagai bahan masukan pada pengambilan kebijakan stabilisasi harga di daerah. metode sumber data dan wilayah penelitian analisis inflasi di purwokerto ini memerlukan data sekunder. data sekunder diperlukan untuk mendeteksi variabel-variabel yang memberikan sumbangan terjadinya lonjakan inflasi, mengetahui seberapa cepat variabelvariabel inflation shock akan menciptakan lonjakan inflasi. data ini diperoleh dari terbitan biro pusat statistik maupun bank indonesia. data berbentuk lintas waktu dengan rentang periode bulanan dari januari 2005 sampai maret 2009 estimasi determinan inflasi untuk mengidentifikasi semua faktor yang relevan berpengaruh terhadap fluktuasi harga, metode vector auto regressive (var) paling tepat diaplikasikan. var telah banyak dipergunakan secara luas untuk mengidentifikasi fluktuasi harga-harga. pada penelitian ini, var digunakan untuk mengestimasi determinan-determinan relevan yang menjadi sumber inflasi di wilayah purwokerto. model var untuk analisis inflasi dapat diekspresikan dalam bentuk matriks sebagai berikut (gottschalk, kalonji, and miyajima, 2008): yt = b0* + b1* (l) yt + ut) (1) dimana yt menunjukkan vektor dari variabel dalam model, ut menunjukkan residual reduced form, b0* merepresentasikan komponen deterministik dari model reduced form (yaitu konstanta dan tren waktu), dan b1*(l) merupakan lag operator. estimasi model reduced form dapat menggunakan estimator ordinary least square (ols) konvensional – tetapi parameter hasil estimasi tidak akan memiliki interpretasi ekonomi. untuk mejurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 65 76 68 ngatasi hal ini perlu dilakukan pembentukan model struktural sebagai berikut; 1 yt = 0 + b (l) yt + et (2) dimana 1 merupakan interaksi serentak di antara variabel-variabel, 0 komponen deterministik struktural, b (l) adalah respons lag serta et adalah residual struktural. tidak seperti halnya bentukan reduced form, bentuk struktural memasukkan interaksi serentak dan merupakan model ekonomi secara utuh. dengan demikian, model ini tidak dapat diestimasi secara langsung. karena itu, model harus dikembalikan pada bentuk reduced form dengan menggunakan beberapa pembatasan. hasil dari kombinasi antara reduced form dengan parameter strukturalnya; b0* = 1-1 0 , b1* (l) = 1-1 b(l) , ut = 1-1 et (3) bentuk model var perlu direformulasi ke dalam bentuk rata-rata bergerak atau moving average (ma). untuk bentuk strukturalnya, yt = ( 1 – b(l))-1 0 + (1 – b(l))-1 et + = c (l) 0 + c (l) et (4) dimana c (l) = ( 1 – b(l))-1. untuk mengestimasi var struktural, bentuk reduced form perlu ditransformasikan ke dalam ma, maka akan berbentuk; yt = (1 – b1*(l))-1 b0* + (1 – b1*(l))-1 ut = c* (l) b0 + c (l) ut (5) dimana c* (l) = (1 – b1*(l))-1. maka bentuk struktural dan reduced form akan terkait dalam hubungan sebagai berikut; c (l) = c* (l) 1 -1 , c (l) 0 = c* (l) 1 -1 1 b0* , dan et = 1 ut (6) selanjutnya, reduced form dapat dituliskan kembali sebagai berikut yt = c* (l) 1 -1 1 b + c* (l) 1 -1 1 ut = c (l) 0 + c (l) et (7) pada model tersebut, untuk kasus bivariat paling sederhana, matrik varians-kovarians pada shock struktural memiliki bentuk;           e 2 2 2 1 0 0   (8) residual struktural et, yang merupakan pusat perhatian dari pendekatan var, mengacu pada shock struktural. pada penelitian ini, vektor variabel yang dianggap memberikan pengaruh penting pada fluktuasi inflasi purwokerto sepanjang periode penelitian adalah: aliran kas keluar dari sektor perbankan pada masyarakat (dalam juta rupiah). variabel ini digunakan sebagai proksi jumlah uang beredar (jub). model menggunakan singkatan jub_out. suku bunga konsumsi bulanan di purwokerto (dalam persen). variabel ini digunakan sebagai proksi suku bunga kredit. model menggunakan singkatan t_kons suku bunga deposito perbankan 3 bulanan di purwokerto (dalam persen). variabel ini digunakan sebagai proksi suku bunga deposito. model menggunakan singkatan b_dep_b. total kredit perbankan di banyumas dalam juta rupiah (dalam nilai logaritma natural). variabel ini digunakan sebagai proksi posisi kredit. model menggunakan singkatan kred_bms. nilai tukar rupiah/dolar amerika pada bulan sebelumnya. variabel ini digunakan sebagai proksi pengaruh nilai tukar rupiah. deteksi faktor penyebab inflasi di purwokerto (rahmat p. dan endang setiasih) 69 model menggunakan singkatan er_jual(-1) indeks kepercayaan konsumen pada kemampuan konsumsinya. variabel ini digunakan sebagai proksi kepercayaan konsumen pada stabilitas perekonomian. model menggunakan singkatan ikk() harga bahan bakar minyak (bbm) untuk jenis premium (dalam rupiah). variabel ini digunakan sebagai proksi kebijakan harga bahan bakar. model menggunakan singkatan bbm_prem. hasil dan pembahasan pada metode ordinary least square standar diperoleh informasi adanya hubungan teoritis yang diharapkan untuk setiap parameter yang signifikan. meskipun demikian hasil estimasi pada model ini bias secara statistik. meskipun identifikasi statistik menunjukkan nilai otokorelasi bisa ditoleransi tetapi besaran pengaruh variabel tak tergantung secara serempak terlihat bias. bias statistik ini ditunjukkan oleh nilai f terlalu kecil dan tidak signifikan secara statistik maupun nilai r2 yang terlalu kecil. dapat disimpulkan model dasar tersebut bukan merupakan model yang baik dan tidak memuaskan secara statistik. dengan menggunakan metode var yang menambahkan autoregresi sampai t–6 diperoleh hasil yang lebih baik. tiga alternatif model inflasi dipilih. pada model pertama, dengan memasukkan variabel kelambanan untuk variabel jub_(out), t_kons, b_dep_b, er_jual dan ikk, model yang dihasilkan berdampak parameter pada 3 variabel kelambanan tersebut tidak signifikan dan serial korelasi masih tergolong tinggi. pada alternatif kedua, kelambanan pada variabel jub_(out) dan b_dep_b dihilangkan. dua variabel tersebut tetap dimasukkan bukan sebagai variabel kelambanan. hasil estimasi parameter menunjukkan seluruh variabel (kecuali variabel auto regresi) terlihat signifikan. adj r2 meningkat disertai serial korelasi yang makin menurun. pada alternatif ketiga, kelambanan variabel t_kons dihilangkan. hasil regresi menunjukkan lebih baik dari alternatif pertama maupun kedua. seluruh parameter autoregresi menunjukkan arah yang diinginkan (bertanda negatif), seluruh variabel tersisa terlihat signifikan, f statistik dan nilai adj r2 meningkat serta hasil serial korelasi yang tidak signifikan pada  5%. dengan demikian, dari 3 alternatif model var yang disajikan alternatif model ketiga lebih memuaskan secara teoritis maupun statistik. pada model 3 tersebut, seluruh besaran parameter autoregresif di semua alternatif model (1, 2, maupun 3) bertanda negatif (–). tanda negatif ini berarti terdapat korelasi terbalik antarlag. kenaikan inflasi 6 bulan yang lalu memberikan dampak penurunan inflasi pada bulan berikutnya (inflasi 5 bulan yang lalu). penurunan inflasi pada 5 bulan yang lalu berdampak kenaikan inflasi pada bulan berikutnya. proses ini berjalan secara bergantian dan mencerminkan bahwa inflasi antarperiode sifatnya tidak stabil. bagi pengambil kebijakan, parameter negatif pada lag inflasi dapat dipandang memberikan dampak negatif dan perlu diturunkan. secara teoritis, kenaikan jumlah uang beredar (jub) akan berdampak kenaikan inflasi. proksi yang digunakan adalah aliran kas keluar dari sektor perbankan pada masyarakat (dalam juta rupiah) semakin banyak permintaan masyarakat pada uang beredar akan mendorong konsumsi yang lebih tinggi dan berdampak pada kenaikan harga-harga. kesimpulan ini sesuai dengan estimasi dari model. pada model ini, variabel suku bunga yang pertama diwakili oleh suku bunga konjurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 65 76 70 sumsi. diperkirakan kenaikan suku bunga kredit konsumsi di purwokerto akan berdampak pada penurunan inflasi. masyarakat akan lebih cenderung menyukai bunga kredit konsumsi yang rendah. jika bunga kredit konsumsi mampu dinaikkan, minat masyarakat pada permintaan kredit konsumsi akan berkurang. hal ini mengindikasikan penurunan konsumsi masyarakat dan sebagai responnya adalah penurunan tingkat harga. demikian pula, kenaikan suku bunga deposito akan berdampak masyarakat lebih rela menyerahkan uangnya pada sektor perbankan daripada disimpan atau dikonsumsi langsung. secara absolut, nilai parameter bunga deposito ini lebih tinggi daripada nilai parameter suku bunga kredit. kedua parameter ini dapat dibandingkan karena menggunakan satuan yang sama. perbedaan besar parameter tersebut menunjukkan untuk menurunkan inflasi akan lebih efektif jika menggunakan kebijakan suku bunga deposito daripada kebijakan suku bunga kredit konsumsi. pada variabel permintaan kredit, tanda negatif pada parameter di model 3 memperlihatkan dengan asumsi ceteris paribus kenaikan total kredit di banyumas memberikan dampak negatif dan signifikan pada tingkat inflasi. dengan kata lain, inflasi dapat ditekan dengan meningkatkan permintaan kredit di banyumas. jika diurai, total permintaan kredit di banyumas lebih didominasi untuk tujuan bukan konsumtif. jika dikaitkan dengan fluktuasi inflasi, kebijakan pemberian kredit dengan proporsi lebih besar pada kredit non konsumtif terbukti efektif menurunkan tingkat inflasi. pada model optimal, diperkirakan kenaikan nilai tukar rupiah memberikan dampak penting pada kenaikan tingkat inflasi. proksi variabel yang digunakan adalah nilai tukar rupiah per 1 dolar as. naiknya nilai tukar rupiah akan mendorong masyarakat untuk melepas mata uang asing yang dipegangnya untuk mendapatkan keuntungan dari selisih kurs. tambahan rupiah yang digunakan untuk konsumsi selanjutnya akan mendorong kenaikan harga-harga. hasil estimasi konsisten dengan perkiraan teoritis. sementara, keyakinan konsumsi masyarakat menunjukkan perilaku masyarakat pada berbagai hal yang terkait dengan kondisi ekonomi secara keseluruhan. keyakinan konsumsi ini akan menunjukkan apakah masyarakat optimis dengan kemampuan konsumsi mereka. proksi yang digunakan sebagai ukuran keyakinan konsumsi masyarakat adakah indeks keyakinan konsumsi (ikk). semakin tinggi nilai ikk berarti semakin tinggi tingkat keyakinan konsumen terhadap perekonomian secara keseluruhan. enam determinan yang dipergunakan untuk menghitung indeks keyakinan konsumsi tersebut adalah; (1) penghasilan saat ini dibandingkan 6 bulan yang lalu, (2) ekspektasi penghasilan 6 bulan yang akan datang, (3) ketersediaan lapangan kerja saat ini dibandingkan 6 bulan lalu, (4) ketersediaan lapangan kerja pada 6 bulan yang akan datang, (5) ketepatan waktu saat ini untuk melakukan pembelian barang tahan lama, serta (6) kondisi ekonomi indonesia 6 bulan yang akan datang. diperkirakan, semakin optimis masyarakat pada kemampuan konsumsinya masyarakat akan cenderung menahan untuk melakukan konsumsinya dalam jangka pendek. hal ini disebabkan optimisme pada kondisi perekonomian yang sedang berjalan maupun optimisme pada ekspektasi konsumsi mereka di masa depan akan membuat masyarakat merasa aman dengan uang yang dipegangnya. dengan kata lain, uang yang dipegang saat ini tidak akan terlalu berbeda jika dibelanjakan pada saat ini atau masa nanti. deteksi faktor penyebab inflasi di purwokerto (rahmat p. dan endang setiasih) 71 hal tersebut berbanding terbalik jika masyarakat menilai kondisi perekonomian secara keseluruhan tidak memberikan rasa optimis. masyarakat dengan kondisi skeptis tersebut akan membelanjakan uang yang dipegang dengan segera karena cenderung dianggap lebih aman. mereka akan khawatir harga-harga akan terdorong naik jika tidak segera melakukan konsumsi. dampaknya adalah pesimisme masyarakat pada keyakinan konsumsi akan mendorong kenaikan harga dan berpengaruh positif pada inflasi. parameter pada model sesuai dengan yang diperkirakan sebelumnya bahwa semakin optimis masyarakat pada perekonomian secara keseluruhan maka masyarakat tidak akan segera melakukan konsumsi dan berdampak pada penurunan harga-harga. untuk variabel tak tergantung terakhir, perubahan harga bbm dipastikan akan memberikan pengaruh signifikan pada perubahan tingkat harga dengan arah positif. kenaikan harga bbm akan mendorong kenaikan inflasi dan sebaliknya penurunan harga bbm akan menurunkan tingkat inflasi. selama periode observasi januari 2005 sampai dengan maret 2009, harga bbm bersubsidi untuk konsumsi rumah tangga telah mengalami perubahan sebanyak 5 kali. dua periode terjadi penurunan harga dan 3 periode terjadi kenaikan harga. pada model, besaran parameter bbm bernilai positif. nilai parameter ini berarti setiap kenaikan harga bbm jenis premium akan mendorong kenaikan inflasi. dari besaran parameter yang positif ini dapat terbukti bahwa kenaikan harga bbm oleh pemerintah akan mendorong kenaikan harga-harga umum. kesimpulan lebih tingginya tingkat inflasi di purwokerto dibandingkan kota lain di jawa tengah maupun yogyakarta pada tahun 2008 menunjukkan wilayah ini lebih rentan untuk terjadi perubahan harga secara cepat. bagi sektor riil, hal ini akan menyulitkan bagi pembuatan keputusan usaha. penelaahan inflasi di purwokerto perlu mempertimbangkan skenario kebijakan inflasi berbasis permodelan ekonomi. dengan menggunakan metode regresi diketahui terdapat beberapa variabel, yang lebih bersifat sisi permintaan, yang memiliki pengaruh penting bagi inflasi. hasil estimasi menunjukkan jumlah uang beredar dengan proksi aliran kas keluar dari sektor perbankan memiliki pengaruh positif bagi inflasi. kenaikan aliran kas keluar akan memberi dampak kenaikan inflasi. kenaikan suku bunga kredit konsumsi maupun bunga deposito di perbankan menghasilkan parameter negatif pada inflasi. demikian pula besaran kredit yang disalurkan oleh perbankan di banyumas memiliki efek negatif dan penting pada inflasi. pada variabel nilai tukar ditemukan naiknya nilai tukar rupiah akan mendorong masyarakat untuk melepas mata uang asing yang dipegangnya untuk mendapatkan keuntungan dari selisih kurs. tambahan rupiah yang digunakan untuk konsumsi selanjutnya akan mendorong kenaikan harga-harga. dua determinan penting lainnya adalah keyakinan konsumsi masyarakat purwokerto dan perubahan harga bbm. dengan parameter negatif dapat disimpulkan semakin optimis masyarakat pada perekonomian secara keseluruhan maka masyarakat tidak akan segera melakukan konsumsi dan berdampak pada penurunan harga-harga. pada perubahan harga bbm, perubahan harga bbm terbukti memberikan pengaruh signifikan pada perubahan tingkat harga dengan arah positif. kenaikan harga bbm akan mendorong kenaikan inflasi dan sebaliknya penurujurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 65 76 72 nan harga bbm akan menurunkan tingkat inflasi. beberapa saran sebagai pertimbangan untuk pengambil kebijakan dari hasil penelitian ini antara lain upaya-upaya riil untuk mendorong stabilisasi harga akan merupakan hal penting bagi pemerintah daerah karena stabilitas harga merupakan salah satu alasan yang dipandang menarik bagi investor untuk menempatkan lokasi usaha. upaya untuk menaikkan suku bunga deposito dan kredit konsumsi, mendorong meningkatkan permintaan kredit non konsumtif maupun menjaga optimisme keyakinan konsumen pada stabilitas kondisi perekonomian akan menjadi kebijakan yang cukup efektif untuk mengurangi dampak tingginya inflasi akibat kenaikan harga bbm. kenaikan ikk (indeks keyakinan konsumen) pada bulan berjalan akan berpeluang menurunkan inflasi bulan berikutnya. hal ini mengindikasikan bahwa kepercayaan konsumsi masyarakat mampu memberikan dampak penting untuk menahan laju inflasi. pemerintah perlu menjaga stabilitas keamanan, sosial ekonomi maupun faktor politik untuk mendorong masyarakat percaya bahwa konsumsinya akan stabil. perhitungan statistik menunjukkan bahwa besaran bunga deposito lebih memberikan dampak lebih besar daripada besaran bunga kredit konsumtif. pengambil kebijakan perlu melihat hal ini bahwa kebijakan untuk menaikkan suku bunga deposito akan memberikan manfaat lebih tinggi untuk menahan laju inflasi daripada mendorong kenaikan bunga kredit konsumtif. daftar pustaka bank indonesia, 2009, inflation targetting framework, jakarta: bank indonesia, www.bi.go.id badan pusat statistik, 2009, berita resmi statistik bps propinsi jawa tengah, berbagai nomor terbitan, jateng: bps. www.bpsjateng.go.id brodjonegoro, bambang ps, 2008, inflasi dan apbn, warta, september 2008, www. pertamina.com browne, frank and david cronin, 2007, commodity prices, money and inflation, european central bank working paper series no. 738 / march 2007. cover, james and c. james hueng, 2003, the correlation between shocks to output and price level: evidence from multivariate garch model, southern economic journal. cover, james and paul pecorino, 2000, optimal monetary policy and the correlation between prices and output, university of alabama department of economics, finance and legal studies working paper, august, 1-15. doepke, matthias and martin schneider, 2005, aggregate implications of wealth redistribution: the case of inflation, unpublished manuscript, ucla and nyu galesi, alessandro and marco j. lomabrdi, 2009, external shocks and international inflation linkages, a global var analysis, working paper series, no 1062, june 2009, european central bank gottschalk, jan, kadima kalonji, and ken miyajima, 2008, analyzing determinants of inflation when there are data limitations: the case of sierra leone, imf working paper, wp/08/271 hutabarat, akhis r., 2000, pengendalian inflasi melalui inflation targeting, bank indonesia direktorat riset ekonomi dan kebijakan moneter bagian studi sektor riil, oktober. http://www.pertamina.com/ http://www.pertamina.com/ deteksi faktor penyebab inflasi di purwokerto (rahmat p. dan endang setiasih) 73 kenny, g., aidan meyler, and terry quinn, 1998, bayesian var models for forecasting irish inflation, munich personal repec archive (mpra) paper, no. 11360, december 1998, posted 3 november 2008, research and publications department, central bank of ireland. martel, sylvain, 2008, a structural var approach to core inflation in canada, bank of canada discussion paper, july 2008, research department bank of canada, ottawa, ontario, canada minella, andre, 2001, monetary policy and inflation in brazil (1975-2000): a var estimation, working paper series, no 33, november 2001, p.1-34, research department, central bank of brazil svensson, lars e.o., 1998, monetary policy and inflation targeting, nber reporter winter 1997/98. lampiran tabel l1. data n tahun bulan inf jub_out t_kons b_dep_b kred_ bms er_ jual(-1) ikk(-1) bbm prem (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) 1 2005 1 1,55 312.325 15,55 5,50 1,47 1.810 2 2 -0,18 271.145 15,55 5,50 1,58 9.665 115,33 1.810 3 3 1,62 359.609 15,55 5,50 1,63 9.760 98,83 2.400 4 4 -0,19 350.566 15,50 5,50 1,77 9.980 94,67 2.400 5 5 0,09 373.936 15,88 5,50 1,84 10.070 104,50 2.400 6 6 0,71 448.381 15,49 5,50 1,90 9.995 95,67 2.400 7 7 0,91 514.007 15,55 5,50 1,92 10.213 96,83 2.400 8 8 0,26 418.075 15,55 5,50 1,97 10.319 107,00 2.400 9 9 1,21 450.410 16,12 5,75 1,21 10.740 110,33 2.400 10 10 7,31 1.121.982 16,18 5,75 2,04 10.810 83,83 4.500 11 11 0,86 234.105 16,14 5,75 2,02 10.590 83,50 4.500 12 12 -0,27 479.740 16,23 5,75 2,07 10.535 77,84 4.500 13 2006 1 2,58 341.360 16,56 5,75 2,04 10.330 82,50 4.500 14 2 0,15 447.720 16,61 5,75 2,08 9.895 79,00 4.500 15 3 -0,57 477.460 16,65 5,75 2,13 9.730 70,50 4.500 16 4 -0,27 385.577 16,86 5,75 2,19 9.575 77,17 4.500 17 5 1,00 548.480 16,99 5,75 2,21 9.275 93,00 4.500 18 6 0,63 617.208 17,03 5,75 2,24 9.720 87,50 4.500 19 7 0,29 662.107 17,01 6,00 2,23 9.800 88,83 4.500 20 8 0,17 432.363 16,40 6,00 2,26 9.570 100,83 4.500 21 9 1,74 748.532 16,40 6,00 2,35 9.600 94,00 4.500 bersambung… jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 65 76 74 sambungan tabel l1. n tahun bulan inf jub_out t_kons b_dep_b kred_ bms er_ jual(-1) ikk(-1) bbm prem (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) 22 10 0,82 855.741 16,38 5,75 2,36 9.735 89,00 4.500 23 11 0,45 250.800 16,18 5,25 2,40 9.610 101,00 4.500 24 12 1,19 372.369 15,95 5,25 2,46 9.665 100,00 4.500 25 2007 1 0,83 16.493 15,85 5,25 2,47 9.520 100,67 4.500 26 2 1,29 4.775 15,28 5,50 2,51 9.615 99,33 4.500 27 3 0,10 13.450 15,11 5,50 2,58 9.660 86,67 4.500 28 4 -0,21 74.343 14,91 5,75 2,69 9.618 84,17 4.500 29 5 0,43 37.498 14,56 5,50 2,80 9.583 97,67 4.500 30 6 1,11 165.144 14,38 5,25 2,85 9.328 105,67 4.500 31 7 0,67 29.587 14,30 5,25 2,85 9.554 116,00 4.500 32 8 0,10 58.791 14,01 5,25 2,90 9.686 118,33 4.500 33 9 1,43 206.828 13,85 5,25 2,99 9.910 111,17 4.500 34 10 0,44 634.501 13,79 5,25 3,00 9.637 109,00 4.500 35 11 -0,54 17.583 13,65 5,25 3,04 9.603 93,17 4.500 36 12 0,37 569.632 13,53 5,25 3,10 9.876 99,50 4.500 37 2008 1 1,41 56.874 13,44 5,25 3,10 9.919 100,67 4.500 38 2 0,71 24.769 13,47 5,25 3,15 9.804 96,67 4.500 39 3 1,43 48.498 13,41 5,25 3,30 9.551 96,67 4.500 40 4 0,36 136.334 13,41 5,25 3,46 9.717 80,67 4.500 41 5 0,97 53.728 13,41 5,25 3,53 9.734 91,83 6.000 42 6 2,75 267.514 13,27 5,25 3,63 9.818 75,50 6.000 43 7 2,58 126.990 13,32 5,25 3,70 9.725 78,83 6.000 44 8 0,03 51.988 13,52 5,25 3,75 9.618 82,50 6.000 45 9 0,90 946.267 13,56 5,50 3,81 9.653 101,33 6.000 46 10 1,08 2.128 13,76 5,10 3,83 9.878 99,33 6.000 47 11 -0,09 102.340 15,72 5,10 3,94 11.495 104,83 6.000 48 12 0,17 361.715 15,74 5,50 3,97 12.651 104,33 5.000 49 2009 1 -0,33 4.413 15,76 5,25 3,89 11.450 83,00 4.500 50 2 0,52 45.398 15,77 5,25 3,94 11.855 97,67 4.500 51 3 0,60 181.326 15,75 5,25 4,00 12.480 88,67 4.500 penjelasan: n adalah sampel data serial (2005:1–2009:3) atau sebanyak 51 data, inf adalah inflasi bulanan wilayah perkotaan di purwokerto berdasar data bps kabupaten banyumas, jub_out adalah aliran kas keluar dari sektor perbankan banyumas pada masyarakat (dalam juta rupiah), t_kons adalah suku bunga konsumsi bulanan di purwokerto (dalam persen), b_dep_b adalah suku bunga deposito perbankan bulanan di purwokerto (dalam persen), kred_bms adalah total kredit perbankan di banyumas dalam juta rupiah (dalam nilai logaritma natural), er_jual(-1) adalah nilai tukar rupiah/dolar amerika pada bulan sebelumnya, ikk(-1) adalah indeks kepercayaan konsumen masyarakat pada kemampuan konsumsinya, bbm_prem adalah harga bahan bakar minyak (bbm) untuk jenis premium (dalam rupiah) deteksi faktor penyebab inflasi di purwokerto (rahmat p. dan endang setiasih) 75 tabel l2. regresi model dasar yang menghasilkan ols regression summary for dependent variable: inf (var1.sta) r= 0.42498580 r²= 0,18061293 adjusted r²= 0,04404842 f(7,42)=1,3225 p<.26378 std.error of estimate: 1,1839 beta std.err. b std.err. t(42) p-level intercept -1,0675 7,9143 -0,1349 0,8934 jub_out-1 -0,0618 0,1790 0,0000 0,0000 -0,3451 0,7317 t_kons-1 -0,5243 0,2700 -0,5170 0,2663 -1,9416 0,0589 b_dep_b-1 0,1327 0,2776 0,6456 1,3503 0,4781 0,6350 kred_bms -0,9675 0,3707 -1,5545 0,5956 -2,6098 0,0125 er_jual-1 0,4352 0,2035 0,0007 0,0003 2,1385 0,0383 ikk-1 0,0016 0,1683 0,0002 0,0179 0,0095 0,9925 bbm_prem 0,6666 0,2776 0,0008 0,0003 2,4009 0,0209 durbin-watson d (var1.sta) and serial correlation of residuals durbinserial estimate 2,1867 -0,0956 tabel l3. regresi alternatif model ke-1 regression summary for dependent variable: inf (var1.sta) r= 0,74542404 r²= 0,55565700 adjusted r²= 0,36931962 f(13,31)=2.9820 p<0,00622 std.error of estimate: 0,99207 beta std.err. b std.err. t(31) p-level intercept 7,53275 7,399824 1,01796 0,316575 inf-1 -0,21427 0,166775 -0,21434 0,166823 -1,28480 0,208379 inf-2 -0,52776 0,144644 -0,52615 0,144203 -3,64866 0,000960 inf-3 -0,01921 0,151208 -0,01920 0,151084 -0,12707 0,899708 inf-4 -0,29948 0,137976 -0,29892 0,137716 -2,17053 0,037745 inf-5 -0,30947 0,140074 -0,30848 0,139629 -2,20930 0,034673 inf-6 -0,35442 0,136392 -0,35222 0,135546 -2,59852 0,014203 jub_out-1 -0,05567 0,173374 -2,e-07 8,e-07 -0,32112 0,750277 t_kons-1 -0,62081 0,254307 -0,60296 0,246998 -2,44117 0,020547 b_dep_b-1 -0,13355 0,252614 -0,63551 1,202059 -0,52868 0,600790 kred_bms -1,55522 0,355625 -2,71381 0,620554 -4,37320 0,000128 er_jual-1 0,70638 0,194729 0,00112 0,000310 3,62752 0,001016 ikk-1 -0,31069 0,163241 -0,03394 0,017835 -1,90324 0,066331 bbm_prem 0,98103 0,254660 0,00152 0,000394 3,85230 0,000550 durbin-watson d (var1.sta) and serial correlation of residuals durbin-watson serial correlation estimate 2,238977 -0,137290 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 65 76 76 tabel l4. regresi alternatif model ke-2 regression summary for dependent variable: inf (var1.sta) r= 0,79296122 r²= 0,62878749 adjusted r²= 0,47311773 f(13,31)=4,0392 p<0,00070 std.error of estimate: 0,90677 beta std.err. b std.err. t(31) p-level intercept 15,06932 6,408584 2,35143 0,025236 inf-1 -0,19637 0,142259 -0,19643 0,142301 -1,38038 0,177343 inf-2 -0,48021 0,130929 -0,47875 0,130530 -3,66775 0,000911 inf-3 -0,02050 0,138239 -0,02049 0,138126 -0,14831 0,883060 inf-4 -0,28897 0,127188 -0,28843 0,126949 -2,27199 0,030176 inf-5 -0,30444 0,128798 -0,30347 0,128389 -2,36367 0,024544 inf-6 -0,30560 0,123386 -0,30370 0,122620 -2,47678 0,018918 jub_out 0,34479 0,145156 2,e-06 6,e-07 2,37531 0,023901 t_kons-1 -0,55512 0,217245 -0,53916 0,211001 -2,55526 0,015738 b_dep_b -0,44582 0,228209 -2,10528 1,077670 -1,95355 0,059830 kred_bms -1,49718 0,360528 -2,61254 0,629110 -4,15275 0,000239 er_jual-1 0,66975 0,182390 0,00107 0,000290 3,67206 0,000900 ikk-1 -0,34337 0,145744 -0,03751 0,015923 -2,35597 0,024977 bbm_prem 0,91394 0,246027 0,00141 0,000380 3,71481 0,000802 durbin-watson d (var1.sta) and serial correlation of residuals durbin-watson serial correlation estimate 2,101126 -0,060760 tabel l5. regresi alternatif model ke-3 regression summary for dependent variable: inf (var1.sta) r= 0,81612484 r²= 0,66605976 adjusted r²= 0,52602031 f(13,31)=4,7562 p<0,00018 std.error of estimate:0,86004 beta std.err. b std.err. t(31) p-level intercept 15,01323 6,076702 2,47062 0,019191 inf-1 -0,22931 0,135917 -0,22938 0,135957 -1,68717 0,101610 inf-2 -0,50013 0,124149 -0,49860 0,123770 -4,02846 0,000338 inf-3 -0,04908 0,131941 -0,04904 0,131833 -0,37198 0,712436 inf-4 -0,23501 0,121110 -0,23457 0,120882 -1,94050 0,061461 inf-5 -0,27995 0,122432 -0,27906 0,122043 -2,28655 0,029210 inf-6 -0,25105 0,118918 -0,24949 0,118180 -2,11111 0,042927 jub_out 0,36082 0,136625 2,e-06 6,e-07 2,64096 0,012833 t_kons -0,74395 0,227239 -0,72132 0,220329 -3,27386 0,002610 b_dep_b -0,45250 0,211313 -2,13685 0,997879 -2,14139 0,040212 kred_bms -1,75848 0,369203 -3,06849 0,644248 -4,76290 0,000042 er_jual-1 0,86042 0,198614 0,00137 0,000316 4,33213 0,000144 ikk-1 -0,33277 0,137493 -0,03636 0,015022 -2,42024 0,021563 bbm_prem 1,06126 0,244864 0,00164 0,000378 4,33410 0,000143 durbin-watson d (var1.sta) and serial correlation of residuals durbin-watson serial correlation estimate 2,009729 -0,018255 convert jpg to pdf online convert-jpg-to-pdf.net microsoft word 09-wulandari jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015, hlm.99-118 interaksi dinamis variabel makroekonomi terhadap return saham di bursa efek indonesia wulandari1, samsubar saleh2 1 bank muamalat jakarta gedung arthaloka, jalan jenderal sudirman nomor 2, jakarta 10220, phone: +6221 2511414 2 fakultas ekonomika dan bisnis, universitas gadjah mada jalan sosio humaniora nomor 01 bulaksumur, yogyakarta 55281, indonesia, phone: +62 274 548510. e-mail korespondensi: wulandari.economics@gmail.com naskah diterima: juli 2014; disetujui: januari 2015 abstract: this study aims to analyze how the effect of macroeconomic variables on stock returns in indonesia. stock returns in this study using two approaches, jci and lq45. the selection of macroeconomic variables in this study is an adaptation of the research which using a variable index of industrial production, money supply (m2), sbi rate and the exchange rate against the dollarto determine the risk of the domestic macroeconomic and usingthe federal funds rate variable to determine the risk of macroeconomic abroad in the form of u.s. monetary policy shocks. techniques of analysis in this study using time seriesvar (vector autoregresive). the data used in this study are monthly time series data. the results of this study indicate that monetary sector has a direct impact on stock price movements in indonesia compared to the realactivity indicated by the absence ofa direct effect of changes in the industrial production index for the stock price index movement either jci nor lq45. this study also indicate the u.s. monetary policy shock directly affects stock returns in indonesia stock exchange (idx). keywords: macroeconomic variables; stock return; indonesia; vector autoregressive jel classification: e22, l16 abstrak: penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh variabel-variabel makroekonomi terhadap return saham di indonesia. return saham dalam penelitian ini menggunakan dua pendekatan yaitu ihsg dan lq45. pemilihan variabel-variabel makroekonomi dalam penelitian ini merupakan adaptasi dari penelitian yaitu, menggunakan variabel indeks produksi industri, jumlah uang beredar (m2), tingkat diskonto sbi dan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dollar untuk mengetahui risiko makroekonomi dari dalam negeri dan menggunakan variabel federal fund rate untuk mengetahui risiko makroekonomi dari luar negeri yang berupa kejutan kebijakan moneter amerika serikat. teknik analisis dalam penelitian ini menggunakan metode time series var (vector autoregresive. data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini merupakan data runtun waktu bulanan dengan periode 1999:01– 2007:12. hasil dari penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa secara keseluruhan sektor moneter lebih memiliki pengaruh langsung terhadap pergerakan harga saham di indonesia dibandingkan dengan aktivitas riil yang ditunjukkan oleh tidak adanya pengaruh langsung dari perubahan indeks produksi industri terhadap pergerakan indeks harga saham baik ihsg maupun lq45. penelitian ini juga menunjukkan kejutan kebijakan moneter amerika serikat berpengaruh langsung terhadap return saham di bursa efek indonesia (bei). kata kunci: variabel makroekonomi; return saham; indonesia; vector autoregressive klasifikasi jel: e22, l16 doi: 10.18196/jesp.2015.0045.99-118 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015: 99-118 100 pendahuluan stabilitas sektor keuangan telah menjadi isu yang mendunia dan terus berkembang. kasus subprime mortgage di amerika serikat (as) yang mengakibatkan housing bubble serta kegagalan pasar kredit yang memicu krisis global tahun 2008 menjadi gagasan utama munculnya pertanyaan baru mengenai kebijakan makro-finansial. krisis global membuat rancangan kebijakan di negara-negara maju menghadapi dimensi makroekonomi yang berkaitan dengan kerapuhan di sektor keuangan. adapun rancangan kebijakan ini kemudian memberikan tantangan baru bagi kebijakan moneter dalam menjalankan tugas utama menjaga stabilitas harga, yaitu dengan tambahan kebutuhan akan keamanan berupa stabilitas keuangan (demirgüç-kunt dkk., 2010)1. sistem keuangan yang semakin terintegrasi secara global menuntut agar sektor keuangan di negara pasar berkembang siap menghadapi mekanisme perambatan keuangan dari negara maju. krisis keuangan tahun 2008 sendiri menimbulkan efek perambatan antarnegara termasuk ke negara pasar berkembang2. salah satu efek krisis global yang dirasakan adalah aliran dana investasi asing ke bursa saham negara pasar berkembang seperti indonesia. aliran dana investasi asing menjadi salah satu pemicu meningkatnya indeks harga saham di bursa efek indonesia (bei). hal ini dapat mendorong bei untuk berkembang sekaligus merupakan risiko bagi bei jika aliran dana asing jangka pendek tidak dibatasi. krisis global memberikan sinyal pentingnya sebuah pengaturan terhadap risiko finansial yang dipengaruhi oleh kegiatan perekonomian. salah satu topik penelitian yang terus dikembangkan dalam bidang keuangan adalah penelitian mengenai pengaruh variabel makroekonomi terhadap return saham. pengaruh variabel makroekonomi terhadap return saham ini menjelaskan risiko pada return saham di negara yang bersangkutan dengan melihat 1 dijelaskan dalam research roundup (2008-2011): macroeconomics and growth, world bank. 2 global intelligance aliance (juni, 2012) mengurutkan indonesia sebagai negara pasar berkembang terbesar kelima setelah india, brazil, cina dan rusia. respon pergerakan indeks harga saham terhadap perubahan variabel-variabel makroekonomi. (fama, 1981) dan (chen dkk., 1986) menjelaskan hipotesis keterkaitan variabel makroekonomi dengan return saham berasal dari pengaruh perubahan variabel makroekonomi terhadap aliran kas perusahaan dan tingkat diskonto di masa mendatang. berdasarkan model simple discounted present value, harga saham juga ditentukan oleh arus kas perusahaan dan tingkat diskonto di masa mendatang. besaran pengaruh perubahan variabel makroekonomi terhadap perubahan return saham merupakan risiko saham yang dapat didiversifikasi dengan melakukan portofolio saham antarnegara. gambar 1 menjelaskan sektor industri keuangan di asia secara umum mengalami kemajuan yang positif. gia memprediksikan pertumbuhan dana agregat pada perusahaan investasi di asia akan mengalami salah satu dari tiga skenario pertumbuhan. tiga skenario pertumbuhan ini terjadi pada pertumbuhan perusahaan investasi akibat adanya ketidakpastian dalam perekonomian.3 skenario pertama berupa pertumbuhan dana agregat perusahaan investasi yang kuat. skenario ini dapat terjadi apabila perekonomian asia mengalami pemulihan dari kemerosotan sektor keuangan akibat krisis global relatif lebih cepat dari amerika serikat dan eropa. pemulihan tersebut perlu didukung oleh pertumbuhan perusahaan-perusahaan di sektor riil yang mampu menyerap dana dari kegiatan investasi dengan baik sehingga ekspansi perusahaan dapat terus terjadi dan kemudian menopang pertumbuhan lebih lanjut dari kegiatan perusahaan investasi. dipandang dari sisi kelembagaan, diperlukan manajemen perusahaan investasi yang baik sehingga dapat menarik minat investor pada kegiatan berinvestasi. manajemen perusahaan investasi yang baik juga penting untuk menghindari terjadinya moral hazard. sedangkan dipandang dari sisi 3 (finkel, 2010) perusahaan investasi dalam pembahasan gambar merupakan perusahaan investasi yang menyuntikkan dana investasi ke perusahaan yang sudah berjalan (perusahaan private equity) berbeda dengan jenis perusahaan investasi yang menyuntikkan dana investasi ke perusahaan yang baru dijalankan (perusahaan venture capital). interaksi dinamis variabel makroekonomi ... (wulandari, samsubar saleh) 101 perekonomian makro, diperlukan tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tetap stabil meskipun penyerapan dana agregat perusahaan investasi semakin besar. skenario kedua berupa pertumbuhan dana agregat perusahaan investasi yang moderat. asia mengalami skenario ini jika terjadi penarikan modal yang berkelanjutan untuk dana perusahaan investasi sehingga arus modal perusahaan investasi menimbulkan lonjakan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang terlalu tinggi. tingkat produktivitas modal yang tinggi pada perusahaan investasi ini menyebabkan persaingan antarperusahaan investasi akan semakin ketat. kondisi ini memungkinkan dana modal perusahaan investasi ada yang disuntikkan ke aset yang memiliki return dan risiko yang tinggi. skenario terakhir berupa pertumbuhan dana agregat perusahaan investasi yang moderat dan mengalami kejenuhan pasar. skenario ini terjadi jika investasi berlebihan pada sektorsektor tertentu berakibat pada kejenuhan pasar. hal ini mengakibatkan perusahaan investasi yang tidak memiliki manajemen perusahaan yang baik tidak dapat bertahan di industri keuangan sehingga perusahaan investasi yang tetap bertahan adalah perusahaan investasi yang memiliki manajemen perusahaan yang baik. selanjutnya, penurunan jumlah perusahaan investasi ini kemudian diikuti dengan penurunan dana agregat perusahaan investasi. tiga skenario mengenai kondisi dana agregat perusahaan investasi ini perlu menjadi perhatian bagi kebijakan yang berkaitan dengan bei. pemahaman mengenai risiko faktor makroekonomi terhadap return saham diperlukan untuk melihat karakteristik risiko investasi saham di indonesia. hal ini diperlukan sebagai bentuk antisipasi dari pergerakan indeks harga saham yang terjadi akibat ketidakpastian perekonomian di indonesia. terkait dengan ketidakpastian perekonomian ini (laopodis, 2011) menjelaskan bahwa harga saham memiliki relasi dengan pergerakan aktivitas ekonomi di masa mendatang di mana proyeksi pertumbuhan pendapatan perusahaan dipengaruhi oleh baik atau buruknya keadaan perekonomian. indonesia merupakan negara pasar berkembang yang masih memiliki potensi besar untuk terus berkembang. grafik 1 (lampiran) menunjukkan pergerakan indeks harga saham gabungan (ihsg) selama dua dekade terakhir. kenaikan ihsg dalam dua dekade terakhir rata-rata mencapai level 1.155,33 setiap tahunnya. angka ihsg hampir setiap tahun meningkat dan menembus level yang berbeda dari tahun sebelumnya. ihsg menembus level 500 di tahun 1993, level 1.000 di tahun 2004, level 2.000 di tahun 2007 dan level 3.000 di tahun 2009 meskipun turun di bawah level 2.000 di tahun 2008. angka penambahan modal baru oleh investor tertinggi yang terjadi di tahun 1999 mencapai rp133 trilyun, diikuti dengan penambahan modal baru sebesar rp19 trilyun di tahun 2000 dan rp5 trilyun di tahun 2001. penurunan penambahan modal baru yang sumber: global intelligence alliance (gia), 2010 gambar 1. perkembangan perusahaan investasi (private equity) di asia jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015: 99-118 102 drastis juga kembali terjadi di tahun 2009 (rp14 trilyun) setelah di tahun 2008 penambahan modal baru sebesar rp82 trilyun. penurunan dari penambahan modal setelah tahun 2008 ini erat dengan isu krisis di eropa, yaitu pada kondisi krisis investor akan mencari investasi yang lebih aman seperti investasi emas dan properti (koran jakarta, juli 2012). peningkatan angka ihsg dapat terjadi karena faktor kondisi baik pada laba yang dihasilkan oleh perusahaan penerbit saham atau kebutuhan dana untuk menyelamatkan perusahaan penerbit saham yang hampir bangkrut. selanjutnya, peningkatan angka ihsg ini juga rentan terhadap spekulan-spekulan yang membeli saham hanya untuk mengambil keuntungan dari peningkatan harga saham. tabel 1 menunjukkan perkembangan kapitalisasi pasar modal indonesia terus meningkat begitu pula dengan nilai perdagangan saham dan jumlah perusahaan yang terdaftar dalam pasar modal. peningkatan kapitalisasi pasar berimplikasi pada semakin berkembangnya pasar modal indonesia. pertumbuhan kapitalisasi pasar relatif cepat karena indonesia memiliki potensi pasar yang besar untuk terus berkembang. oleh karena itu, perlu adanya penelitian empiris mengenai faktor-faktor risiko pada pasar saham indonesia mengingat outlook bursa saham indonesia dalam jangka panjang masih bagus (koran jakarta, juli 2012). fisher dan statman (2000) menguji korelasi sentimen investor terhadap perubahan return s&p 500. korelasi negatif dan signifikan terjadi ketika sentimen investor berasal dari investor individu sedangkan korelasi ini tidak signifikan pada sentimen investor yang berasal dari penulis berita investasi dan investor yang merupakan pelaku strategis di wall street. sentimen investor menjadi isu dalam penelitian ini terkait dengan perilaku investor yang justru menjual saham ketika harga saham sedang tinggi. korelasi sentimen investor terhadap return saham secara eksplisit signifikan berdasarkan sampel pada survei. selanjutnya, perlu ada penelitian mengenai faktor-faktor apa saja yang mempengaruhi perubahan return saham secara implisit. penelitian empiris yang meneliti tentang perubahan return saham banyak dikaitkan dengan perubahan variabel-variabel makroekonomi. (fama, 1981) meneliti bagaimana kaitan perubahan aktivitas riil, inflasi dan uang terhadap return saham. penelitian ini menunjukan return saham dipengaruhi variabel-variabel dari sektor moneter dan sektor riil tersebut secara searah. kemudian (chen dkk., 1986) menjelaskan bahwa hubungan variabel-variabel makroekonomi dengan return saham tidak terjadi hanya pada satu arah. return saham dan variabel makroekonomi dijelaskan dalam penelitian ini merupakan variabel endogen. hubungan kausalitas return saham dan variabel-variabel makroekonomi mulai dikembangkan di negara pasar berkembang. pertanyaan mengenai bagaimana pengaruh variabelvariabel makroekonomi terhadap return saham di negara pasar berkembang mulai menjadi topik yang menarik karena ada perbedaan karakteristik antara negara maju dengan negara tabel 1. perkembangan pasar modal indonesia tahun kapitalisasi pasar nilai perdagangan saham jumlah emiten (milyar rp) (% gdp) (juta rp) (% gdp) 1999 451.814,924 45,776 19.903.460 14,217 277 2000 259.620,958 16,261 14.310.690 8,672 290 2001 239.258,731 14,338 9.666.880 6,025 316 2002 268.422,777 15,328 13.041.840 6,666 331 2003 460.365,963 23,282 14.774.350 6,293 333 2004 679.949,067 28,520 27.561.460 10,731 331 2005 801.252,702 28,484 41.900.080 14,657 335 2006 1.249.074,451 38,096 48.830.560 13,394 344 2007 1.988.326,205 48,978 112.851.080 26,110 383 2008 1.076.490,532 19,356 110.677.617 21,691 396 2009 2.019.375,130 33,024 115.309.506 21,370 398 sumber: idx dan world bank interaksi dinamis variabel makroekonomi ... (wulandari, samsubar saleh) 103 pasar berkembang. perbedaan struktur ekonomi dan politik menyebabkan adanya perbedaan profil return dan risiko di bursa saham negara pasar berkembang. harvey (1995) menemukan bahwa risiko dan return saham di bursa saham negara pasar berkembang relatif lebih besar daripada bursa saham di negara maju. bilson dkk., (2001) menjelaskan secara empiris bahwa bursa saham di negara pasar berkembang tersegmentasi dari bursa saham di negara maju. (majid dan yusof, 2007) menjelaskan bahwa penelitian mengenai pengaruh variabel makroekonomi terhadap return saham penting untuk dilakukan di negara pasar berkembang karena negara pasar berkembang mulai dijadikan negara tujuan investasi alternatif oleh investor dunia. terkait dengan efek perambatan negara maju terhadap negara pasar berkembang pada bursa saham, penelitian ini juga menemukan bahwa kejutan pada kebijakan moneter di amerika serikat memiliki pengaruh terhadap bursa saham di malaysia. ajayi dan mougou dalam suciwari dan machfoedz, (2002) dalam tjahjono (2004) menjelaskan bahwa depresiasi nilai tukar berkorelasi negatif di pasar modal yang artinya bila nilai tukar berfluktuasi tinggi dan menimbulkan depresiasi nilai tukar rupiah maka return saham menurun. laopadis (2011) melakukan penelitian di perancis, jerman, italia, inggris dan amerika serikat. penelitian ini menganalisis secara empiris pengaruh variabel makroekonomi terhadap return saham pada masa sebelum mata uang euro terbentuk dan sesudah mata uang euro terbentuk dengan menggunakan teknik kointegrasi rolling-sampel dan spesifikasi var. data yang digunakan merupakan data runtun waktu bulanan periode 1990:02–2009:12 di mana 1990:02–1998:12 merupakan periode sebelum mata uang euro terbentuk dan 1999:01 – 2009:12 untuk periode sesudah mata uang euro terbentuk. variabel dalam penelitian ini terdiri dari indeks harga saham nasional, produksi industri, suku bunga jangka pendek, dan indeks harga konsumen, tiga variabel terakhir merupakan proksi dari fundamental ekonomi. penelitian ini menunjukkan variabel fundamental ekonomi berpengaruh terhadap return saham dan ada perbedaan masing-masing pengaruh variabel fundamental ekonomi terhadap return saham di tiap negara. penelitian ini bertujuan untuk: a) mengkaji pengaruh indeks produksi, jumlah uang beredar, nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dollar dan tingkat diskonto sbi terhadap return saham di indonesia; b) menunjukkan fokus manajemen risiko makroekonomi di bei; dan c) menganalisis pengaruh kebijakan moneter di amerika serikat terhadap bursa saham indonesia. metode penelitian penelitian ini menggunakan data sekunder yang merupakan data urut waktu bulanan dengan rentang waktu 1999:01 sampai 2007:12. rentang waktu ini dipilih untuk mengeluarkan efek kejutan akibat krisis pada variabel-variabel dalam penelitian.variabel dalam penelitian ini yaitu indeks harga saham (ihsg/ lq45), indeks produksi industri (ipi), jumlah uang beredar (m2), tingkat diskonto bunga sbi 1 bulan (sbir), nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar (nt) dan federal fund rate (ffr). spesifikasi model untuk menganalisis hubungan return saham dan variabel makroekonomi merupakan adaptasi dari model yang dibangun dalam penelitian (chen dkk., 1986) dan (maysami, r.c. dan koh, t.s., 2000), yaitu menggunakan pendekatan model var (vector autoregressive) yang pertama kali dipopulerkan oleh sims (1980). adapun model estimasi secara teknis dibagi ke dalam dua sistem persamaan var, yaitu: 1) sistem persamaan var dengan menggunakan data runtun waktu ihsg untuk proksi return saham: (1) lihsgt = a1 +∑ lihsgt-j+ ∑ lipit-j + ∑ lm2t-j + ∑ sbirt-j + ∑ lntt-j + ∑ ffrt-j + ε1t jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015: 99-118 104 (2) lipit = a2 +∑ lihsgt-j+ ∑ lipit-j + ∑ lm2t-j + ∑ sbirt-j + ∑ lntt-j + ∑ ffrt-j + ε2t (3) lm2t = a3 +∑ lihsgt-j+ ∑ lipit-j + ∑ lm2t-j + ∑ sbirt-j + ∑ lntt-j + ∑ ffrt-j + ε3t (4) sbirt = a4 +∑ lihsgt-j+ ∑ lipit-j + ∑ lm2t-j + ∑ sbirt-j + ∑ lntt-j + ∑ ffrt-j + ε4t (5) lntt = a5 +∑ lihsgt-j+ ∑ lipit-j + ∑ lm2t-j + ∑ sbirt-j + ∑ lntt-j + ∑ ffrt-j + ε5t (6) lffrt = a6 +∑ lihsgt-j+ ∑ lipit-j + ∑ lm2t-j + ∑ sbirt-j + ∑ lntt-j + ∑ ffrt-j + ε6t 2) sistem persamaan var dengan menggunakan data runtun waktu lq45 untuk proksi return saham: (1) llq45t = a1 +∑ llq45t-j+ ∑ lipit-j + ∑ lm2t-j + ∑ sbirt-j + ∑ lntt-j + ∑ ffrt-j + ε1t (2) lipit = a2 +∑ llq45t-j+ ∑ lipit-j + ∑ lm2t-j + ∑ sbirt-j + ∑ lntt-j + ∑ ffrt-j + ε2t (3) lm2t = a3 +∑ llq45t-j+ ∑ lipit-j + ∑ lm2t-j + ∑ sbirt-j + ∑ lntt-j + ∑ ffrt-j + ε3t (4) sbirt = a4 +∑ llq45t-j+ ∑ lipit-j + ∑ lm2t-j + ∑ sbirt-j + ∑ lntt-j + ∑ ffrt-j + ε4t (5) lntt = a5 +∑ llq45t-j+ ∑ lipit-j + ∑ lm2t-j + ∑ sbirt-j + ∑ lntt-j + ∑ ffrt-j + ε5t (6) lffrt = a6 +∑ llq45t-j+ ∑ lipit-j + ∑ lm2t-j + ∑ sbirt-j + ∑ lntt-j + ∑ ffrt-j + ε6t transformasi logaritma dilakukan untuk data ihsg, lq45, ipi, m2 dan nt. transformasi logaritma tidak dilakukan pada data sbir dan ffr karena telah berbentuk persentase. di mana, indeks waktu bulanan ditunjukkan oleh notasi (t), jumlah lag bulanan ditunjukkan oleh notasi (j), parameter masing-masing variabel yang berupa notasi (a, b, c, d, e, f, dan g) dan error term ditunjukkan oleh notasi (ε1t, ε2t, ε3t, ε4t, ε4t, dan ε6t). hasil dan pembahasan salah satu pengukuran deskripsi statistik mengenai normalitas distribusi data berupa probabilitas jarque-bera menunjukkan data lipi dan lm2 berdistribusi normal4 untuk data pada derajat level. setelah data didiferensiasikan data yang berdistribusi normal adalah ∆lihsg, ∆llq45, ∆lipi dan ∆lm2. persamaan estimasi var yang akan diarahkan ke vecm jika terdapat kointegrasi dan data tidak stasioner. persamaan estimasi var/vecm digunakan dalam penelitian ini karena persamaan tersebut dapat melakukan uji kointegrasi satu langkah pada seluruh sistem persamaan tanpa persyaratan secara spesifik variabel harus terdistribusi normal (maysami dan koh, 2000). 4 jika probabilitas jarque-bera lebih besar dari nilai signifikansinya yaitu sebesar 0,1 untuk α = 10%, 0,05 untuk α = 5% dan 0,01 untuk α = 1% maka data tersebut berdistribusi normal interaksi dinamis variabel makroekonomi ... (wulandari, samsubar saleh) 105 uji stasioneritas data langkah pertama dalam pembentukan model var adalah uji stasioneritas data. tabel 4 (lampiran) merupakan uji akar unit adf pada data runtun waktu derajat level. uji akar unit adf pada nilai kritis 1% dan 5% ini menunjukkan bahwa tidak ada data runtun waktu yang stasioner pada derajat l evel i(0). uji akar unit adf pada tabel 5 menunjukkan bahwa seluruh data runtun waktu diasumsikan stasioner pada derajat diferensi i(1). hasil uji stasioneritas menyimpulkan arah persamaan estimasi pada var in difference jika tidak terdapat persamaan kointegrasi di antara variabel-variabel endogen atau vecm jika terdapat persamaan kointegrasi di antara variabel-variabel endogen. penjelasan selanjutnya menggunakan perbandingan antara model 1 dan model 2 di mana model 1 merupakan sistem persamaan var yang menggunakan pendekatan data runtun waktu ihsg sebagai proksi return saham sedangkan model 2 menggunakan pendekatan data runtun waktu lq45 sebagai proksi return saham. penentuan lag optimum pemilihan lag optimum perlu dilakukan sebelum mengestimasi model var. lag optimum dalam penelitian ini dipilih berdasarkan perbandingan kriteria sequential modified lr test statistic. pertama-tama kami menggunakan lag maksimum sebanyak empat belas pada lag length criteria dan melakukan pengurangan lag maksimum sebanyak satu hingga nilai sequential modified lr test statistic pertama kali ditemukan signifikan (*) pada lag maksimum. hasil penentuan lag optimum pada tabel 6 (lampiran) menunjukkan nilai sequential modified lr test statistic signifikan pertama kali pada lag maksimum 10 dan 12 untuk model 1 dan model 2. kriteria aic juga menunjukkan lag optimum (*) pada lag 10 dan 12 untuk model 1 dan model 2. uji stabilitas untuk menguji stabilitas model var kami menggunakan gambar inverse roots of ar characteristic polynomial yang disajikan pada tabel 7. pada gambar 7 dapat terlihat nilai modulus dari root tidak ada yang keluar dari cyrcle unit. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa model var lag 10 pada model 1 dan model var lag 12 pada model 2 memenuhi syarat stabil. uji kointegrasi uji kointegrasi dilakukan pada persamaan var dengan menggunakan metode johansen dengan jumlah lag 10 untuk model 1 dan lag 12 untuk model 2. kriteria kointegrasi menggunakan pendekatan lowest aic. pada langkah ini, jika tabel 2. deskripsi statistik uji normalitas variabel pada derajat level i(0) variable mean maximum minimum std. dev skewness kurtosis jarque-bera probability lihsg 6,606346 7,917837 5,881181 0,574626 0,657516 2,240376 10,37852 0,005576 llq45 5,062874 6,396631 4,264158 0,167101 0,582727 2,151347 9,353237 0,009310 lipi 4,463714 4,746157 4,015482 0,588766 -0,284286 2,186175 4,435131 0,108874* lm2 13,73964 14,31608 13,29890 0,265898 0,238244 2,147473 4,292293 0,116934* sbir 12,63019 35,77000 7,320000 5,743261 2,338310 9,489242 287,9147 0,000000 lnt 9,106626 9,365205 8,813736 0,095638 -0,518502 4,542897 15,55159 0,000420 ffr 3,608056 6,550000 0,990000 1,851776 -0,106049 1,517050 10,09857 0,006414 tabel 3. deskripsi statistik uji normalitas variabel pada derajat diferensi i(1) variable mean maximum minimum std. dev skewness kurtosis jarque-bera probability ∆lihsg 0,017729 0,229607 -0,147884 0,072121 0,017391 2,828755 0,136134 0,934198* ∆llq45 0,017349 0,254966 -0,173728 0,080587 0,035990 2,930020 0,044933 0,977784* ∆lipi 0,006829 0,146654 -0,100975 0,045228 0,308945 3,558899 3,094780 0,212803* ∆lm2 0,009506 0,056159 -0,036522 0,014480 -0,047754 4,149068 5,927263 0,051631* ∆sbir -0,259533 1,680000 -7,000000 1,188696 -4,081867 22,09178 1922,178 0,000000 ∆lnt 0,000477 0,115644 -0,195042 0,048184 -1,279695 8,129270 146,5003 0,000000 ∆ffr -0,004112 0,280000 -0,640000 0,191548 -1,236410 4,681023 39,86049 0,000000 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015: 99-118 106 terdapat kointegrasi maka model estimasi akan diarahkan pada model vecm akan tetapi jika tidak terdapat kointegrasi maka model estimasi akan diarahkan pada model var in difference. hasil uji kointegrasi pada tabel 8 menunjukkan adanya kointegrasi dalam model 1 dan model 2. kriteria aic pada level 5% menunjukkan secara signifikan terdapat empat persamaan kointegrasi di antara variabel-variabel yang digunakan dalam model 1 dan model 2. trend deterministic yang digunakan pada model 1 adalah linear trend in data dan yang digunakan pada model 2 adalah quadratic trend in data. hasil uji kointegrasi yang menunjukkan adanya kointegrasi pada penelitian ini mengarahkan model estimasi ke model vecm. pembentukan sistem vecm sebelum menentukan sistem vecm, terlebih dulu kami menguji model vecm yang terbaik apakah perlu mengeluarkan satu lag atau tidak. proses mengeluarkan satu lag terjadi karena model diasumsikan stasioner pada derajat diferensii(1). adapun uji yang dilakukan untuk melihat perlu atau tidaknya mengeluarkan satu lag adalah uji lag exclusion wald. analisis uji lag exclusion wald pada model 1 menunjukkan pengurangan satu lag diperlukan. hal ini terlihat dari nilai joint pada tabel 9 untuk dlag9 pada estimasi vecm lag 10 memiliki nilai yang lebih kecil dibandingkan dengan nilai joint dlag 9 pada estimasi vecm lag 10 (55,03411 < tabel 7. uji stabilitas var: inverse roots of ar characteristic polynomial tabel 8. ringkasan uji kointegrasi johansen: akaike information criteria data trend: none none linear linear quadratic rank or no intercept intercept intercept intercept intercept no. of ces no trend no trend no trend trend trend model 1 0 -17,02816 -17,02816 -16,91717 -16,91717 -16,85042 1 -17,33809 -17,42401 -17,33229 -17,49652 -17,43964 2 -17,44950 -17,51864 -17,44636 -17,64259 -17,59096 3 -17,50394 -17,58281 -17,52988 -17,73583 -17,69586 4 -17,36783 -17,43967 -17,40301 -17,79727* -17,77593 5 -17,16011 -17,24996 -17,22972 -17,62607 -17,61645 6 -16,91131 -17,02121 -17,02121 -17,40217 -17,40217 model 2 0 -19,74542 -19,74542 -19,66998 -19,66998 -19,62999 1 -20,39337 -20,41783 -20,35703 -20,51361 -20,48362 2 -20,67146 -20,68531 -20,62761 -21,09873 -21,08614 3 -20,84774 -20,85843 -20,82200 -21,32278 -21,32996 4 -20,82114 -20,84306 -20,82527 -21,43303 -21,46092* 5 -20,66008 -20,72759 -20,72276 -21,41151 -21,46012 6 -20,40617 -20,53466 -20,53466 -21,22943 -21,22943 interaksi dinamis variabel makroekonomi ... (wulandari, samsubar saleh) 107 96,70652). pengurangan satu juga perlu dilakukan pada model 2. hal ini dikarenakan nilai joint dlag 11 pada estimasi vecm lag 12 lebih kecil dibandingkan nilai joint dlag 11 pada estimasi vecm lag 11 (110,3322 < 119,8050). oleh karena itu, estimasi vecm pada model 1 akan menggunakan lag 9 dan estimasi vecm pada model 2 akan menggunakan lag 11. uji stabilitas model vecm kebenaran mengenai jumlah lag yang akan digunakan pada estimasi model vecm diujikan kembali dengan pendekatan ar root table untuk mengetahui kestabilan model vecm yang akan dibentuk. uji stabilitas vecm pada tabel 10 (lampiran) memiliki dua nilai modulus yang bernilai satu. hal ini terjadi karena pada model vecm terdapat empat persamaan kointegrasi (r) sedangkan jumlah variabel endogen (k) sama dengan enam, maka nilai roots yang keluar dari root circle sebanyak k – r = 6 – 4 = 2 (eviews 6 user’s guide: 348). hasil tersebut menunjukkan bahwa model vecm lag 9 pada model 1 dan lag 11 pada model 2 adalah stabil. uji kointegrasi model vecm dilakukan kembali untuk melihat berapa jumlah persamaan kointegrasi pada model vecm lag 9 pada model 1 dan lag 11 pada model 2. uji kointegrasi dilakukan dengan menggunakan trend deterministic linear trend in data pada model 1 dan quadratic trend in data pada model 2. tabel 11 dan tabel 12 (lampiran) menunjukkan hasil uji kointegrasi menurut trace test dan max eigen value dengan menggunakan nilai kritis 5%. pada model 1 uji kointegrasi menurut trace test terdapat empat persamaan kointegrasi dan menurut max eigen test terdapat empat persamaan kointegrasi sehingga estimasi persamaan vecm lag 9 pada model 1 akan menggunakan jumlah persamaan kointegrasi sebanyak empat. uji kointegrasi pada model 2 menurut trace test terdapat enam persamaan kointegrasi dan menurut max eigen valeui terdapat tiga persamaan kointegrasi sehingga persamaan vecm lag 11 pada model 2 akan menggunakan jumlah persamaan kointegrasi sebanyak tiga. analisis granger causality test hasil analisis pertama dalam penelitian ini mengenai karakteristik hubungan kausalitas tabel 9. vec lag exclusion wald tests model 1 d(lihsg) d(lipi) d(lm2) d(sbir) d(lnt) d(ffr) joint estimasi vecm lag 10 dlag 9 5,806707 16,42272 8,350545 11,05493 8,968593 2,802329 55,03411 dlag 10 6,362966 14,42976 5,077046 8,934725 3,965226 2,812470 55,00863 df 6 6 6 6 6 6 36 estimasi vecm lag 9 dlag 9 2,721825 5,290251 4,563063 26,59799 17,52933 7,428905 96,70652 df 6 6 6 6 6 6 36 model 2 d(llq45) d(lipi) d(lm2) d(sbir) d(lnt) d(ffr) joint estimasi vecm lag 12 dlag 11 6,252428 10,33236 10,17120 11,26146 1,460981 13,51430 110,3322 dlag 12 3,179926 6,276752 13,69161 6,709884 4,785872 7,860711 76,57007 df 6 6 6 6 6 6 36 estimasi vecm lag 11 dlag 11 15,92518 25,51313 4,148263 5,763915 2,185796 12,19465 119,8050 df 6 6 6 6 6 6 36 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015: 99-118 108 atau perubahan variabel mana lebih berpengaruh terhadap perubahan variabel yang lain. tabel 13 (lampiran) menjelaskan hasil dari uji vec granger causality yang dilakukan pada estimasi vecm pada model 1 dan model 2 dengan karakteristik jumlah lag, persamaan kointegrasi dan bentuk trend yang telah disebutkan. berdasarkan uji kausalitas pada model 1 di atas dapat dilihat bahwa: 1) tidak terdapat hubungan antara ∆lihsg dengan ∆lipi dan ∆lihsg dengan ∆lnt. hal ini mengindikasikan bahwa perubahan variabel indeks produksi industri dan perubahan variabel nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar tidak mempengaruhi return saham yang diukur dengan proksi ihsg secara langsung. 2) terdapat dua hubungan satu arah antara ∆lihsg dengan ∆lm2 dan ∆lihsg dengan ∆ffr, yakni ∆lm2 dan ∆ffr secara signifikan mempengaruhi ∆lihsg. hal ini mengindikasikan bahwa perubahan variabel jumlah uang beredar dan perubahan variabel federal fund rate akan mempengaruhi return saham yang diukur dengan proksi ihsg secara langsung. 3) terdapat satu hubungan dua arah antara ∆lihsg dengan ∆sbir, yakni ∆lihsg secara signifikan mempengaruhi ∆sbir dan ∆sbir secara signifikan mempengaruhi ∆lihsg. hal ini mengindikasikan bahwa perubahan variabel tingkat diskonto sbi akan mempengaruhi return saham sebaliknya return saham akan mempengaruhi tingkat diskonto sbi secara langsung. gambar 1 menampilkan ringkasan hasil uji kausalitas dari tabel 12 dalam bentuk bagan untuk memperjelas bagaimana arah hubungan antara variabel-variabel dalam sistem persamaan vecm model 1. berdasarkan uji kausalitas pada model 2 di atas dapat dilihat bahwa: 1) terdapat empat hubungan satu arah antara ∆llq45 dengan ∆lipi, ∆llq45 dengan ∆lm2, ∆llq45 dengan ∆lnt dan ∆llq45 dengan ∆ffr, yakni ∆lm2, ∆lnt dan ∆ffr secara signifikan mempengaruhi ∆llq45 dan ∆llq45 mempengaruhi ∆lipi. hal ini mengindikasikan bahwa perubahan variabel jumlah uang beredar, perubahan variabel nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar dan perubahan variabel federal fund rate akan mempengaruhi return saham yang diukur dengan proksi lq45 secara langsung. kemudian hal ini juga memiliki implikasi bahwa return saham yang diukur dengan proksi lq45 tersebut secara signifikan mempengaruhi indeks produksi industri. 2) terdapat hubungan dua arah antara ∆llq45 dengan ∆sbir, yakni ∆llq45 secara signifikan mempengaruhi ∆sbir dan ∆sbir secara signifikan mempengaruhi ∆llq45. hal ini mengindikasikan bahwa perubahan variabel tingkat diskonto sbi akan mempengaruhi return saham sebaliknya return saham akan mempengaruhi gambar 1. bagan hasil kausalitas granger pada model 1 gambar 2. bagan hasil kausalitas granger pada model 2 interaksi dinamis variabel makroekonomi ... (wulandari, samsubar saleh) 109 tingkat diskonto sbi secara langsung. gambar 2 menampilkan ringkasan hasil uji kausalitas dari tabel 11 dalam bentuk bagan untuk memperjelas bagaimana arah hubungan antara variabel-variabel dalam sistem persamaan vecm model 2. analisis impulse response function perilaku dinamis dari model vecm dapat dilihat melalui respon dari setiap variabel terhadap kejutan dari variabel tersebut maupun terhadap variabel endogen lainnya yang ditunjukkan oleh nilai impulse response. nilai impulse pada tabel 14 menunjukkan tidak ada respon dari pergerakan indeks harga saham baik melalui pendekatan ihsg maupun pendekatan lq45 terhadap kejutan dari perubahan variabel makroekonomi yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini pada bulan pertama. akan tetapi, nilai impulse kumulatif 10 bulan pada tabel 15 (lampiran) menunjukkan adanya respon pergerakan harga saham terhadap kejutan dari perubahan variabel makroekonomi dalam jangka waktu sepuluh bulan. dalam jangka waktu sepuluh bulan pada model satu, pergerakan ihsg memberikan respon positif terhadap kejutan perubahan variabel indeks produksi industri dan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar. kemudian, di dalam jangka waktu yang sama pergerakan ihsg memberikan respon negatif terhadap kejutan dari perubahan variabel jumlah uang beredar, tingkat diskonto sbi dan federal fund rate. sedangkan, pada model dua pergerakan lq45 memberikan respon positif terhadap kejutan dari perubahan variabel indeks produksi industri dan tingkat diskonto sbi. kemudian, pergerakan lq45 memberikan respon yang negatif terhadap kejutan dari perubahan variabel jumlah uang beredar, nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar dan federal fund rate. tabel 15 (lampiran) menunjukkan secara umum pergerakan indeks harga saham mulai merespon kejutan akibat perubahan variabel makroekonomi secara kumulatif pada periode bulan kedua. hal ini menunjukkan adanya hubungan jangka panjang dan jangka pendek antara return saham dan variabel-variabel makroekonomi. analisis variance decomposition variance decomposition memberikan informasi mengenai proporsi dari pergerakan pengaruh kejutan pada suatu variabel terhadap kejutan variabel lain pada periode saat ini dan periode masa mendatang. tabel 16 menunjukkan pergerakan harga saham pada periode bulan pertama dijelaskan 100% oleh variabel harga saham itu tabel 14. nilai impulse response bulan pertama model 1 terhadap nilai response bulan pertama (variabel yang merespon) ∆lihsg ∆lipi ∆lm2 ∆sbir ∆lnt ∆ffr ∆lihsg 0,055194 -0,009413 -0,005715 -0,101093 -0,011202 0,018258 ∆lipi 0,000000 0,030893 0,002594 0,032807 0,003007 -0,002240 ∆lm2 0,000000 0,000000 0,011908 -0,031035 0,015773 -0,006554 ∆sbir 0,000000 0,000000 0,000000 0,219806 -0,002329 0,024751 ∆lnt 0,000000 0,000000 0,000000 0,000000 0,021471 -0,021522 ∆ffr 0,000000 0,000000 0,000000 0,000000 0,000000 0,128349 model 2 variabel penjelas nilai response bulan pertama (variabel yang merespon) ∆llq45 ∆lipi ∆lm2 ∆sbir ∆lnt ∆ffr ∆llq45 0,054634 -0,007658 -0,004008 -0,054519 -0,014386 0,087428 ∆lipi 0,000000 0,020350 -0,000468 -0,038925 -0,002897 0,026038 ∆lm2 0,000000 0,000000 0,014077 -0,004079 0,020931 -0,007788 ∆sbir 0,000000 0,000000 0,000000 0,246300 -0,005740 0,016605 ∆lnt 0,000000 0,000000 0,000000 0,000000 0,021962 -0,015161 ∆ffr 0,000000 0,000000 0,000000 0,000000 0,000000 0,084452 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015: 99-118 110 sendiri baik dengan pendekatan ihsg maupun lq45 sedangkan tabel 17 (lampiran) menunjukkan bahwa pergerakan harga saham pada bulan sepuluh dijelaskan oleh variabel harga saham itu sendiri sebesar 51,68% untuk pendekatan ihsg dan sebesar 37,09% untuk pendekatan lq45. porsi variabel makroekonomi yang menjelaskan pergerakan harga saham ihsg pada bulan kesepuluh adalah sebesar 15,78% oleh perubahan jumlah uang beredar (m2); 10,84% oleh perubahan kebijakan moneter di amerika serikat (ffr); 10,70% oleh perubahan indeks produksi industri (ipi); 7,37% oleh perubahan tingkat diskonto sbi; dan 3,61% oleh perubahan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar. kemudian, pergerakan harga saham lq45 pada bulan sepuluh dijelaskan sebesar 29,33% oleh perubahan jumlah uang beredar (m2); 10,21% oleh perubahan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar; 10% oleh perubahan tingkat diskonto sbi; 7,71% oleh perubahan indeks produksi industri dan 5,64% oleh perubahan kebijakan moneter amerika serikat (ffr). simpulan penelitian ini menggunakan analisis time series sistem persamaan var yang diarahkan kepada sistem persamaan vecm karena data runtun waktu pada penelitian ini diasumsikan stasioner pada derajat diferensi i(1) dan terdapat persamaan kointegrasi pada sistem persamaan var. penelitian ini terdiri dari dua model yaitu, model 1 yang menggunakan pergerakan ihsg sebagai proksi return saham dan model 2 yang menggunakan pergerakan lq45 sebagai proksi return saham. adapun, penelitian ini memiliki kesimpulan sebagai berikut: pertama, hasil uji kointegrasi dan analisis nilai impulse response di bagian sebelumnya menunjukkan variabel-variabel dalam sistem persamaan penelitian ini memiliki hubungan baik dalam jangka pendek maupun dalam jangka panjang. nilai impulse menunjukkan respon pergerakan indeks harga saham terhadap kejutan perubahan variabel-variabel makroekonomi mulai terjadi pada periode bulan kedua. proporsi dari pergerakan indeks harga saham yang ditunjukkan oleh nilai variance decomposition memberitabel 16. variance decomposition bulan pertama model 1 terhadap variance decomposition bulan pertama (variabel yang merespon) ∆lihsg ∆lipi ∆lm2 ∆sbir ∆lnt ∆ffr s.e. 0,055194 0,032295 0,013461 0,246118 0,029150 0,133906 ∆lihsg 100,0000 8,495387 18,02244 16,87158 14,76677 1,859070 ∆lipi 0,000000 91,50461 3,714307 1,776801 1,064153 0,027981 ∆lm2 0,000000 0,000000 78,26326 1,590036 29,27681 0,239579 ∆sbir 0,000000 0,000000 0,000000 79,76159 0,638270 3,416548 ∆lnt 0,000000 0,000000 0,000000 0,000000 54,25401 2,583370 ∆ffr 0,000000 0,000000 0,000000 0,000000 0,000000 91,87345 model 2 variabel penjelas variance decomposition bulan pertama (variabel yang merespon) ∆llq45 ∆lipi ∆lm2 ∆sbir ∆lnt ∆ffr s.e. 0,054634 0,021743 0,014644 0,255280 0,034186 0,126570 ∆llq45 100,0000 12,40366 7,491704 4,561100 17,70891 47,71309 ∆lipi 0,000000 87,59634 0,102010 2,325000 0,718165 4,232091 ∆lm2 0,000000 0,000000 92,40629 0,025533 37,48516 0,378562 ∆sbir 0,000000 0,000000 0,000000 93,08837 2,818687 1,721074 ∆lnt 0,000000 0,000000 0,000000 0,000000 41,26908 1,434810 ∆ffr 0,000000 0,000000 0,000000 0,000000 0,000000 44,52037 interaksi dinamis variabel makroekonomi ... (wulandari, samsubar saleh) 111 kan gambaran bahwa pada bulan pertama pergerakan indeks harga saham 100% dijelaskan oleh perubahan harga saham itu sendiri. arah pengaruh dari masing-masing variabel makroekonomi terhadap return saham dijelaskan berdasarkan nilai impulse response kumulatif 10 bulan, yaitu: a) analisis pada model 1 menunjukkan respon pergerakan harga saham bernilai negatif terhadap terhadap kejutan berupa perubahan variabel jumlah uang beredar dan perubahan tingkat diskonto sbi. kemudian, respon pergerakan harga saham bernilai positif terhadap kejutan berupa perubahan variabel indeks produksi industri dan variabel nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar. hal ini sesuai dengan hipotesis-hipotesis yang dibangun oleh penelitian-penelitian sebelumnya. b) analisis pada model 2 menunjukkan respon pergerakan harga saham bernilai negatif terhadap kejutan berupa perubahan variabel jumlah uang beredar dan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar. kemudian, respon pergerakan harga saham bernilai positif terhadap kejutan berupa perubahan variabel indeks produksi industri dan variabel tingkat diskonto sbi. respon pergerakan harga saham terhadap kejutan berupa perubahan variabel tingkat diskonto sbi dan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dollar tidak sesuai dengan hipotesis-hipotesis yang dibangun oleh penelitian-penelitian sebelumnya. nilai decomposition variance bulan kesepuluh menunjukkan proporsi pergerakan indeks harga saham dijelaskan oleh perubahan variabel harga saham itu sendiri pada model 1 sebesar 51,68% dan sebesar 48,32% dijelaskan oleh perubahan variabel-variabel makroekonomi. sedangkan pada model 2, pergerakan harga saham dijelaskan oleh perubahan variabel harga saham itu sendiri sebesar 37,09% dan sebesar 62,91% dijelaskan oleh perubahan variabel-variabel makroekonomi. hal ini menunjukkan saham-saham yang bersifat likuid pada pasar saham memiliki risiko makroekonomi yang lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan saham-saham secara keseluruhan mengingat lq45 merupakan indeks harga saham berasal dari 45 emiten yang sahamnya paling likuid di pasar saham sedangkan ihsg merupakan indeks harga saham dari seluruh emiten yang terdaftar di bei. kedua, berdasarkan uji kausalitas di bagian sebelumnya, penelitian ini menyimpulkan bahwa perubahan jumlah uang beredar dan perubahan tingkat diskonto sbi memiliki pengaruh langsung terhadap pergerakan indeks harga saham dengan pendekatan ihsg. sedangkan, pergerakan indeks harga saham dengan pendekatan lq45 dipengaruhi secara langsung oleh perubahan jumlah uang beredar, perubahan tingkat diskonto sbi, dan perubahan nilai tukar terhadap dolar. hal ini juga menjelaskan bahwa saham-saham yang bersifat likuid di pasar saham (lq45) memiliki risiko makroekonomi yang lebih tinggi relatif terhadap saham-saham yang merepresentasikan harga saham keseluruhan di pasar saham (ihsg). pengaruh langsung perubahan nilai tukar terhadap pergerakan harga saham lq45 mengindikasikan bahwa saham likuid lebih rentan terhadap pengaruh asing jika dibandingkan dengan harga saham di ihsg. secara keseluruhan sektor moneter lebih memiliki pengaruh langsung terhadap pergerakan harga saham di indonesia dibandingkan dengan aktivitas riil yang ditunjukkan oleh tidak adanya pengaruh langsung dari perubahan indeks produksi industri terhadap pergerakan indeks harga saham baik ihsg maupun lq45. ketiga, berdasarkan uji kausalitas di bagian sebelumnya, kejutan dari perubahan kebijakan moneter amerika serikat memiliki pengaruh secara langsung terhadap return saham baik dengan pendekatan pergerakan ihsg maupun pergerakan lq45. perlu adanya pengawasan yang lebih terhadap saham-saham yang bersifat likuid di bei mengingat risiko variabel makroekonomi yang lebih tinggi pada pergerakan saham tersebut relatif terhadap pergerakan saham-saham keseluruhan. daftar pustaka bilson, c.m., t.j. brailsford and v.j. hooper. 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(2007). macroeconomic variables and stock return in malaysia: an application of the adrl testing approach. saving and development, vol. 31 no. 4, 449-469. italy: research center on international cooperation of the university of bergamo bank indonesia. http://www.bi.go.id/sdds/ series/inr/index_inr.asp diakses pada 23 oktober 2012 bapepam.http://www.bapepam.go.id/old/old /profil/sejarah/index.htm diakses 13 oktober 2012 international monetary fund. http://www. dsbb.imf.org/pages/sdds/basesmreport.aspx? ctycode=idn&catcode=ind00&ctytype= sdds diakses 17 oktober 2012 koran jakarta. http://koran-jakarta.com/ index.php/detail/view01/96664 diakses 07 oktober 2012 research highlights at world bank. research roundup (2008-2011): macroeconomic and growth. tersedia di: http://go. worldbank.org/siqj08i5x0 diakses 21 september 2012 white paper at global inteligence alliance. asia private private equity firms see agriculture, education, renewable energy and services as hottest asian investments for 2010 and beyond. tersedia di: http:// www.globalintelligence.com/insightsanalysis/white-papers/?filter=559#ixzz2 7paknc4ediakses 23 september 2012. world bank.world development indicators. tersedia di: http://data.worldbank.org/ data-catalog/world-development-indicators diakses 21 september 2012. interaksi dinamis variabel makroekonomi ... (wulandari, samsubar saleh) 113 lampiran sumber: indonesian stock exchange, idx (diolah) grafik 1. perkembangan indeks harga saham gabungan tabel 4. uji akar unit adf variabel pada derajat level i(0) variabel augmented dickey-fuller test statistic intercept trend + intercept none lihsg 1,003253 -0,907993 2,623442 llq45 0,867343 -1,185421 2,314903 lipi -1,685275 -2,889784 2,883624 lm2 1,513050 -0,473965 6,830240 sbir -1,794626 -2,974173 -0,640647 lnt -2,635062 -2,844532 0,075565 ffr -1,406930 -1,343942 -0,919896 ket: *) stasioner pada tingkat 1% **) stasioner pada tingkat 5% tabel 5. uji akar unit adf pada derajat diferensi i(1) variabel augmented dickey-fuller test statistic intercept trend + intercept none ∆lihsg -8,643836* -8,778429* -8,236160* ∆llq45 -9,155042* -9,317627* -8,814554* ∆lipi -11,44614* -11,45133* -2,048173** ∆lm2 -10,16327* -10,37272* -3,975707* ∆sbir -5,972522* -5,470604* -6,168695* ∆lnt -10,50850* -10,45778* -10,55671* ∆ffr -4,145447* -4,157370* -4,161087* ket: *) stasioner pada tingkat 1% **) stasioner pada tingkat 5% jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015: 99-118 114 tabel 6. lag length criteria lag logl lr fpe aic sc hq model 1 0 734,1658 na 1,22e-14 -15,01373 -14,85447 -14,94933 1 831,7577 181,0983 3,42e-15 -16,28366 -15,16884* -15,83288* 2 876,5016 77,49456 2,88e-15* -16,46395 -14,39356 -15,62679 3 902,4455 41,72422 3,62e-15 -16,25661 -13,23066 -15,03306 4 930,6483 41,86812 4,42e-15 -16,09584 -12,11433 -14,48591 5 959,3026 38,99349 5,51e-15 -15,94438 -11,00731 -13,94807 6 1004,876 56,37990 5,02e-15 -16,14178 -10,24914 -13,75909 7 1036,022 34,67761 6,46e-15 -16,04169 -9,193490 -13,27261 8 1082,578 46,07574 6,45e-15 -16,25933 -8,455571 -13,10387 9 1125,571 37,23161 7,55e-15 -16,40353 -7,644207 -12,86169 10 1195,447 51,86683* 5,68e-15 -17,10201* -7,387121 -13,17378 model 2 0 708,4474 na 1,52e-14 -14,78837 -14,62707 -14,72319 1 809,1673 186,5968 3,90e-15 -16,15089 -15,02181* -15,69466* 2 850,3010 71,00975 3,54e-15* -16,25897 -14,16210 -15,41168 3 877,8742 44,11725 4,32e-15 -16,08156 -13,01691 -14,84321 4 907,1186 43,09694 5,20e-15 -15,93934 -11,90690 -14,30993 5 938,4572 42,22473 6,17e-15 -15,84121 -10,84098 -13,82074 6 977,7705 48,00358 6,43e-15 -15,91096 -9,942951 -13,49944 7 1008,109 33,21296 8,54e-15 -15,79177 -8,855983 -12,98919 8 1046,106 36,79719 1,03e-14 -15,83382 -7,930242 -12,64018 9 1086,669 34,15826 1,30e-14 -15,92988 -7,058519 -12,34518 10 1162,635 54,37553 8,81e-15 -16,77127 -6,932119 -12,79551 11 1232,172 40,99005 8,19e-15 -17,47730 -6,670370 -13,11049 12 1342,475 51,08766* 4,25e-15 -19,04157* -7,266857 -14,28370 * mengindikasikan jumlah lag optimum berdasarkan criteria lr: sequential modified lr test statistic (pada level 5%); fpe: final prediction error; aic: akaike information criterion; sc: schwarz information criterion; hq: hannan-quinn information criterion; tabel 10. uji stabilitas vecm: roots of characteristic polynomial model 1 model 2 root modulus root modulus 1,000000 1,000000 1,000000 4,84e-16i 1,000000 1,000000 1,000000 1,000000 + 4,84e-16i 1,000000 -0,852128 + 0,482835i 0,979414 -0,524395 + 0,842910i 0,992717 -0,852128 0,482835i 0,979414 -0,524395 0,842910i 0,992717 -0,463481 + 0,839632i 0,959061 0,493836 + 0,854587i 0,987012 -0,463481 0,839632i 0,959061 0,493836 0,854587i 0,987012 -0,958029 0,958029 0,857906 + 0,478770i 0,982457 0,854569 + 0,395697i 0,941735 0,857906 0,478770i 0,982457 0,854569 0,395697i 0,941735 -0,849542 + 0,491340i 0,981396 0,757138 + 0,559367i 0,941355 -0,849542 0,491340i 0,981396 0,757138 0,559367i 0,941355 -0,204328 + 0,955443i 0,977047 -0,181019 + 0,920020i 0,937659 -0,204328 0,955443i 0,977047 -0,181019 0,920020i 0,937659 -0,975134 0,975134 -0,926984 0,138609i 0,937289 0,108369 + 0,966919i 0,972973 -0,926984 + 0,138609i 0,937289 0,108369 0,966919i 0,972973 0,446070 0,823092i 0,936194 0,021366 + 0,972402i 0,972637 0,446070 + 0,823092i 0,936194 0,021366 0,972402i 0,972637 0,083473 + 0,929348i 0,933089 -0,459644 + 0,854207i 0,970021 bersambung interaksi dinamis variabel makroekonomi ... (wulandari, samsubar saleh) 115 sambungan tabel 10. uji stabilitas vecm: roots of characteristic polynomial model 1 model 2 root modulus root modulus 0,083473 0,929348i 0,933089 -0,459644 0,854207i 0,970021 0,631953 0,682995i 0,930509 -0,813385 0,516632i 0,963588 0,631953 + 0,682995i 0,930509 -0,813385 + 0,516632i 0,963588 -0,474856 0,798021i 0,928615 -0,065010 + 0,958425i 0,960627 -0,474856 + 0,798021i 0,928615 -0,065010 0,958425i 0,960627 0,481179 0,793974i 0,928401 0,925017 0,254453i 0,959376 0,481179 + 0,793974i 0,928401 0,925017 + 0,254453i 0,959376 0,886878 + 0,273399i 0,928062 -0,646125 0,707537i 0,958168 0,886878 0,273399i 0,928062 -0,646125 + 0,707537i 0,958168 0,271601 0,881335i 0,922235 0,750531 0,594599i 0,957520 0,271601 + 0,881335i 0,922235 0,750531 + 0,594599i 0,957520 -0,008161 + 0,919586i 0,919622 0,949073 0,121546i 0,956824 -0,008161 0,919586i 0,919622 0,949073 + 0,121546i 0,956824 0,901755 + 0,150969i 0,914305 0,666181 + 0,685323i 0,955753 0,901755 0,150969i 0,914305 0,666181 0,685323i 0,955753 0,155841 + 0,894700i 0,908171 -0,940438 0,170211i 0,955717 0,155841 0,894700i 0,908171 -0,940438 + 0,170211i 0,955717 -0,218999 + 0,879604i 0,906457 0,303438 0,903782i 0,953361 -0,218999 0,879604i 0,906457 0,303438 + 0,903782i 0,953361 -0,646409 0,630605i 0,903055 0,587813 0,746646i 0,950265 -0,646409 + 0,630605i 0,903055 0,587813 + 0,746646i 0,950265 -0,745125 0,506399i 0,900917 0,212921 + 0,924890i 0,949082 -0,745125 + 0,506399i 0,900917 0,212921 0,924890i 0,949082 -0,753760 0,413725i 0,859839 -0,944966 0,084935i 0,948775 -0,753760 + 0,413725i 0,859839 -0,944966 + 0,084935i 0,948775 0,716916 + 0,421618i 0,831703 0,862680 + 0,394042i 0,948413 0,716916 0,421618i 0,831703 0,862680 0,394042i 0,948413 -0,814912 + 0,139477i 0,826762 0,379356 0,863406i 0,943069 -0,814912 0,139477i 0,826762 0,379356 + 0,863406i 0,943069 -0,310457 0,749388i 0,811151 0,888473 0,277816i 0,930896 -0,310457 + 0,749388i 0,811151 0,888473 + 0,277816i 0,930896 -0,605376 0,529817i 0,804479 -0,363615 0,855478i 0,929548 -0,605376 + 0,529817i 0,804479 -0,363615 + 0,855478i 0,929548 0,551772 0,565197i 0,789873 -0,248137 0,895633i 0,929371 0,551772 + 0,565197i 0,789873 -0,248137 + 0,895633i 0,929371 0,389929 0,634723i 0,744928 -0,875765 + 0,284396i 0,920785 0,389929 + 0,634723i 0,744928 -0,875765 0,284396i 0,920785 -0,376795 0,382875i 0,537185 -0,806946 + 0,433564i 0,916045 -0,376795 + 0,382875i 0,537185 -0,806946 0,433564i 0,916045 0,528197 0,528197 -0,682671 + 0,597650i 0,907318 -0,373211 0,373211 -0,682671 0,597650i 0,907318 -0,208578 0,208578 -0,582428 0,676488i 0,892669 -0,582428 + 0,676488i 0,892669 0,644283 0,544911i 0,843818 0,644283 + 0,544911i 0,843818 -0,053957 0,828904i 0,830658 bersambung jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015: 99-118 116 sambungan tabel 10. uji stabilitas vecm: roots of characteristic polynomial model 1 model 2 root modulus root modulus -0,053957 + 0,828904i 0,830658 0,493690 0,557005i 0,744301 0,493690 + 0,557005i 0,744301 -0,605629 0,409359i 0,731000 -0,605629 + 0,409359i 0,731000 -0,165347 + 0,315823i 0,356488 -0,165347 0,315823i 0,356488 0,170547 0,170547 vec specification imposes 2 unit root(s). tabel 11. cointegration rank test (trace) hypothesized eigenvalue trace 0,05 prob.** no. of ce(s) statistic critical value model 1 none * 0,539777 217,3467 117,7082 0,0000 at most 1 * 0,438717 142,0705 88,80380 0,0000 at most 2 * 0,340753 86,05005 63,87610 0,0002 at most 3 * 0,288968 45,63438 42,91525 0,0261 at most 4 0,086894 12,55378 25,87211 0,7722 at most 5 0,037784 3,736132 12,51798 0,7799 model 2 none * 0,706341 292,4631 107,3466 0,0000 at most 1 * 0,532697 176,0562 79,34145 0,0000 at most 2 * 0,442414 103,7825 55,24578 0,0000 at most 3 * 0,211013 48,28931 35,01090 0,0011 at most 4 * 0,198607 25,77376 18,39771 0,0039 at most 5 * 0,048675 4,740422 3,841466 0,0295 tabel 12. cointegration rank test (max eigen value) hypothesized eigenvalue max-eigen 0,05 prob.** no. of ce(s) statistic critical value model 1 none * 0,539777 75,27623 44,49720 0,0000 at most 1 * 0,438717 56,02042 38,33101 0,0002 at most 2 * 0,340753 40,41567 32,11832 0,0039 at most 3 * 0,288968 33,08061 25,82321 0,0046 at most 4 0,086894 8,817645 19,38704 0,7430 at most 5 0,037784 3,736132 12,51798 0,7799 model 2 none * 0,706341 116,4069 43,41977 0,0000 at most 1 * 0,532697 72,27376 37,16359 0,0000 at most 2 * 0,442414 55,49316 30,81507 0,0000 at most 3 0,211013 22,51555 24,25202 0,0834 at most 4 * 0,198607 21,03334 17,14769 0,0129 at most 5 * 0,048675 4,740422 3,841466 0,0295 interaksi dinamis variabel makroekonomi ... (wulandari, samsubar saleh) 117 tabel 13. vec granger causality test model 1 variabel penjelas nilai x2 (variabel yang dijelaskan) ∆lihsg ∆lipi ∆lm2 ∆sbir ∆lnt ∆ffr ∆lihsg 4,958280 5,230370 ***22,79803 14,30716 12,18753 ∆lipi 7,415610 14,44525 **21,38353 8,481167 9,717747 ∆lm2 *15,61874 ***22,01630 **18,83168 7,412030 5,639841 ∆sbir ***23,15717 13,31374 9,003747 *** 29,23166 14,07003 ∆lnt 12,33226 7,144193 8,121655 ***38,72285 14,58856 ∆ffr **19,79918 12,06962 5,376373 **19,19024 ***34,41552 model 2 variabel penjelas nilai x2 (variabel yang dijelaskan) ∆llq45 ∆lipi ∆lm2 ∆sbir ∆lnt ∆ffr ∆llq45 ***32,72028 4,074478 *18,61301 6,255060 13,75824 ∆lipi 12,40764 10,83587 16,47203 6,863159 9,893826 ∆lm2 ***31,37544 ***52,65194 **21,14837 7,205222 5,906557 ∆sbir **24,35355 ***26,11830 5,529931 ** 20,70309 16,71660 ∆lnt *17,53311 ***45,87828 8,927042 **21,97543 14,45157 ∆ffr **27,89035 ***41,65862 5,475914 *17,95388 ** 22,58108 keterangan : ***, **, dan * menunjukkan signifikansi pada α = 1%, 5% dan 10% tabel 15. nilai impulse response kumulatif 10 bulan model 1 terhadap nilai response 10 bulan (variabel yang merespon) ∆lihsg ∆lipi ∆lm2 ∆sbir ∆lnt ∆ffr ∆lihsg 0,086214 0,016821 -0,011885 -0,106913 0,007373 0,271843 ∆lipi 0,032984 0,000007 0,007553 -0,290110 0,009941 -0,459898 ∆lm2 -0,045259 -0,014213 0,010192 0,179250 0,000751 -0,211365 ∆sbir -0,013092 0,005418 -0,001788 0,457834 -0,010066 0,340260 ∆lnt 0,026566 -0,000710 0,000254 0,163167 0,027810 -0,083680 ∆ffr -0,034514 0,007578 -0,008198 0,181310 -0,019974 0,732573 model 2 variabel penjelas nilai response 10 bulan (variabel yang merespon) ∆llq45 ∆lipi ∆lm2 ∆sbir ∆lnt ∆ffr ∆llq45 0,011325 0,022665 -0,010254 0,066058 -0,021690 0,777607 ∆lipi 0,018356 0,001694 -0,003235 -0,221932 -0,007183 0,095579 ∆lm2 -0,099045 -0,022028 0,015053 0,313007 -0,000995 0,051669 ∆sbir 0,017601 0,026148 0,004612 1,201858 -0,037851 0,129285 ∆lnt -0,021388 -0,017050 0,005932 0,106423 0,029641 -0,181042 ∆ffr -0,035654 0,006027 -0,004977 -0,166292 -0,009882 0,560195 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 16, nomor 1, april 2015: 99-118 118 tabel 17. variance decomposition bulan sepuluh model 1 terhadap variance decomposition bulan sepuluh (variabel yang merespon) ∆lihsg ∆lipi ∆lm2 ∆sbir ∆lnt ∆ffr s.e. 0,084349 0,051987 0,017925 0,425121 0,047276 0,341762 ∆lihsg 51,68423 8,234254 15,85487 20,92682 18,67793 7,809602 ∆lipi 10,70388 56,23724 10,58577 20,26076 8,092337 22,09490 ∆lm2 15,78453 24,21779 53,16671 10,00152 14,65937 5,182088 ∆sbir 7,374556 1,932411 5,178650 37,13295 10,70965 11,23443 ∆lnt 3,609915 3,049992 3,576539 6,815859 30,60355 2,739997 ∆ffr 10,84289 6,328319 11,63747 4,862084 17,25717 50,93898 model 2 variabel penjelas variance decomposition bulan sepuluh (variabel yang merespon) ∆llq45 ∆lipi ∆lm2 ∆sbir ∆lnt ∆ffr s.e. 0,104205 0,052806 0,018955 0,514663 0,053752 0,332236 ∆llq45 37,09647 18,24244 10,05155 4,638452 11,91143 57,24803 ∆lipi 7,715496 36,75257 6,505964 5,570125 9,259396 2,065526 ∆lm2 29,33582 19,21080 64,16593 11,17548 21,48156 2,939683 ∆sbir 10,00215 7,841135 9,269128 71,20269 22,76312 2,396457 ∆lnt 10,21067 14,26318 6,715898 4,643876 26,78575 5,407568 ∆ffr 5,639402 3,689879 3,291533 2,769373 7,798739 29,94273 instructions for preparing manuscript for bulletin of chemical reaction engineering & catalysis jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 1, april 2017, hlm. 16-24 doi: 10.18196/jesp.18.1.3636 social-economics analysis and community empowerment the watershed of kedaung at gajah mungkur reservoir wonogiri-cental java sarjiyanto1, supriyadi2, arif budi nugroho3 1 faculty of economy and business, universitas sebelas maret, 57126, surakarta, indonesia 2 faculty of faculty of agricultur, universitas sebelas maret, 57126, surakarta, indonesia 3 research and development office of wonogiri district, e-mail: 1 masyanto@staff.uns.ac.id, 2supriyadi_uns@yahoo.com, 3abun2025@gmail.com correspondence e-mail: masyanto@staff.uns.ac.id naskah diterima: december 2016; disetujui: february 2017 abstract: gajah mungkur reservoir is designed to storage reservoir for 100 years since the operation in 1982-2082. currently the sedimentation rate reaches 8 millimeters per year, while the assumption of sediment rate (mud) is only 2 millimeters per year. this research was conducted to save reservoir and river basin environment in gajah mungkur reservoir. this study aims to determine the socio-economic conditions and behavior of people in the keduang river watershed area. this research also formulates community empowerment model in keduang river area and recommends grand design management system involving various related parties. keywords: community empowerment, watershed areas jel classification: f64, o20 abstrak: waduk gajah mungkur dirancang untuk menyimpan cadangan air selama 100 tahun sejak beroperasi pada tahun 1982-2082. saat ini tingkat sedimentasi mencapai 8 milimeter per tahun, sedangkan asumsi laju sedimen (lumpur) hanya 2 milimeter per tahun. penelitian ini dilakukan untuk menyelamatkan reservoir dan lingkungan daerah aliran sungai di waduk gajah mungkur. penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui kondisi sosial ekonomi dan perilaku orang-orang di daerah das keduang river. penelitian ini juga merumuskan model pemberdayaan masyarakat di wilayah das keduang river serta merekomendasikan grand design sistem manajemen yang melibatkan berbagai pihak yang terkait. kata kunci: pemberdayaan masyarakat, daerah aliran sungai klasifikasi jel: f64, o20 mailto:abun2025@gmail.com social-economics analysis and community… (sarjiyanto, supriyadi, arif budi nugroho) 17 introduction the construction of reservoir in one region is one of the solution of problem exist in that region. the function of gajah mungkur reservoir located in wonogiri regency is to control flood, with water catchment area 1.350 km2, gajah mungkur reservoir would be capable to control flood from 4000 m3/s to 400m3/s. this would secure all regions around bengawan solo stream, starts from wonogiri, ngawi, till to downstream in gresik, east java, and from flood is also functioned as irrigation, water supplier, and also electricity. the impact from the construction is the change of socio-economy of the people around the reservoir. economic success will cause change automatically in the economy structure of the people. in social perspective, the construction will cause the change of social structure where most of people will depend on their livelihood on fishery and tourism. besides that impact, the positive impacts from the construction of the reservoir are absorption of labor and the increasing of people’s income while the negative impact is pollution to environment, for example sedimentation is occurred faster than the previous estimation. high sedimentation, especially sedimentation from 6 sub-region river stream which caused limited water storage capability. gajah mungkur reservoir is designed for 100 years, counted since the first operation in 1982 until 2082, with the maximum capability of sediment storage in the amount of 120 million m3 with the sediment rate assumption (mud sediment) 2 millimeters each year. but the fact now is the sedimentation rate reaches 8 millimeters each year. in this time, sediment that comes to gajah mungkur reservoir reaches 2.55 million m3 each year. the negative and positive impact surely affects social and economy of the people so that needs the exact society empowerment model. society empowerment is understood as the process or result (laverack, 2001). through empowerment process, the society would be capable to assume the ability to act effectively so it could change their life and neighborhood (rich, 2009). the empowerment process promotes human resources participation, organization, and community to increase social life quality. society development has so many various definitions. it focused to the study of problem solving process simultaneously. the other definition of society development is to start social action so that it could change their economy, social, culture and environment situation (mattessich, 2004). empowerment theory contains two value orientations to practice and frame the concept to learn the society process and organization. society empowerment is differing into psychology empowerment, organization empowerment, and society empowerment. problem difference would affect the exact empowerment model in one region so that in this research could be known about the exact empowerment model in sub watershed keduang as the impact of gajah mungkur reservoir construction. based on the explanation above, there are research questions defined in order to reach the research purposes. main output of this research is structured recommendation in the formulation of wonogiri regency government policy to empower society around the river stream: 1. how is the social economy condition and society behavior around watershed of keduang river wonogiri? 2. how is the society empowerment model around watershed of keduang river wonogiri? 18 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, no 1, april 2017: 16-24 research method this study uses rra (rapid rural appraisal) and pra (participatory rural appraisal) method with consideration of efficiency, effectiveness and more importantly is aspirational in the sense of community involvement and community needs can be accommodated so that the expected model of empowerment in line with the needs of society). data collection is done on the documentation of studies that have been made by various parties, in-depth interviews with village officials, community leaders, farmers' groups, conservation groups, youth and aware group travel and also conducted field observations to compare data that obtained from interviews, documentation and questioner. classification levels of vulnerability was presented on table in below : table 1. classification levels of social economy and institutional vulnerability source: paimin et al 2006 result and discussion a. pondoksari village pondoksari village, district of nguntoronardi as sample areas that represent sub in downstream watershed of keduang river. pondoksari village is located in the northwestern town of nguntoronadi district approximately 7 km. its area is 573 hectares, divided into 9 hamlets, 7 (ca) citizens association and 17 (na) neighborhood association with an average altitude of 158 from the surface of the sea. the population in 2009 reached 2287 people with 1151 males and 1136 females. table 2. analysis of social economy institutional sub downstream watershed of pondoksari source: primary data, processed 2012 criteria score level vulnerability high > 4,3 very range rather high 3,5 – 4,3 range moderate 2,6 – 3,4 rather range rather low 1,7 – 2,5 slighty range low <1,7 not range criteria parameter/integrity integrity score score x integrity social geographic population density 10 3 30 agrarian population density 10 1 10 conservation behavior 20 3 60 customary law 5 5 25 traditional value 5 3 15 economy dependence on land 20 1 20 income ratio 10 2 20 basic activity on region 10 5 50 institutional institutional empowerment conservation 5 5 25 formal institutional empowerment in conservation 5 4 20 vunerability of social, economy and institutional 275 social-economics analysis and community… (sarjiyanto, supriyadi, arif budi nugroho) 19 based on the results of the study was obtained that geographic population density has a score 3, while scores in the agrarian population density 1, whereas for conservation behaviors have a score 3. customary law still have important role in the pondoksari with a score 5, while traditional values have a score 3. economically, state of residents base on dependence on land had a score 1 and an income ratio had a score 2. based on the presence of institutional conservation and formal institutions empowerment on conservation scores respectively 5 and 4. b. sembukan village sembukan village, district of sidoharjo was selected to represent sub middle watershed as research sample. sembukan village approximately 8 km away from town of sidoharjo district and the village that southernmost in sidoharjo district. its area is 1272 ha, which is divided into 11 hamlets, 9 (ca) citizens association and 21 (na) neighborhood association. the average elevation of this village approximately 355 from the surface of the sea. from the census of 2009 total population of 4239 people with 2194 males and 2045 womens. based on the results of the study was obtained that geographic population density has a score 3, while scores in the agrarian population density 1, whereas for conservation behaviors have a score 3. customary law still have important role in the sembukan with a score 3, while traditional values have a score 3. economically, state of residents base on dependence on land had a score 1 and an income ratio had a score 2. based on the tpresence of institutional conservation and formal institutions empowerment on conservation scores respectively 1 and 3. table 3. analysis of social economy institutional sub middle watershed of sembukan source: primary data, processed 2012 c. padarangin village padarangin village, district of slogohimo was selected to represent sub upstream watershed as research sample. padarangin village approximately 7.8 km away from town of slogohimo district. its area is 799 ha, which is divided into 5 hamlets, 7 (ca) citizens association and 21 (na) neighborhood association. the average elevation of this village up 628 from the surface of the sea. from the census of 2009 total population of 3426 people with 1687 males and 1739 womens. criteria parameter/integrity integrity score score x integrity social geographic population density 10 3 30 agrarian population density 10 1 10 conservation behavior 20 3 60 customary law 5 3 15 traditional value 5 3 15 economy dependence on land 20 1 20 income ratio 10 2 20 basic activity on region 10 1 10 institutional institutional empowerment conservation 5 1 5 formal institutional empowerment in conservation 5 3 15 vunerability of social, economy and institutional 200 20 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, no 1, april 2017: 16-24 table 4. analysis of social economy institutional sub upstream watershed of pandarangin source: primary data, processed 2012 based on the results of the study was obtained that geographic population density has a score 5, while scores in the agrarian population density 5, whereas for conservation behaviors have a score 1. customary law still have important role in the padarangin with a score 3, while traditional values have a score 1. economically, state of residents base on dependence on land had a score 1 and an income ratio had a score 4. based on the presence of institutional conservation and formal institutions empowerment on conservation scores respectively 5 and 3. d. semin village semin village, district of nguntoronadi was selected to represent micro sub watershed at south as research sample. semin village is located at east from town of nguntoronadi district with distance approximately 7,8 km. its area is 726 ha, which is divided into 7 hamlets, 7 (ca) citizens association and 16 (na) neighborhood association. the average elevation of this village up 628 from the surface of the sea. from the census of 2009 total population of 3121 people with 1552 males and 1569 womens. table 5. analysis of social economy institutional micro sub watershed at south side (semin village) source: primy data, processed 2012 criteria parameter/integrity integrity score score x integrity social geographic population density 10 5 50 agrarian population density 10 5 50 conservation behavior 20 1 20 customary law 5 3 15 traditional value 5 1 5 economy dependence on land 20 1 20 income ratio 10 4 40 basic activity on region 10 5 50 institutional institutional empowerment conservation 5 5 25 formal institutional empowerment in conservation 5 3 15 vunerability of social, economy and institutional 290 criteria parameter/integrity integrity score score x integrity social geographic population density 10 5 50 agrarian population density 10 1 10 conservation behavior 20 2 40 customary law 5 3 15 traditional value 5 3 15 economy dependence on land 20 1 20 income ratio 10 2 20 basic activity on region 10 5 50 institutional institutional empowerment conservation 5 5 25 formal institutional empowerment in conservation 5 3 15 vunerability of social, economy and institutional 260 social-economics analysis and community… (sarjiyanto, supriyadi, arif budi nugroho) 21 based on the results of the study was obtained that geographic population density has a score 5, while scores in the agrarian population density 1, whereas for conservation behaviors have a score 2. customary law still have important role in the semin with a score 3, while traditional values have a score 3. economically, state of residents from dependence on land had a score 1 and an income ratio had a score 2. based on the presence of institutional conservation and formal institutions empowerment on conservation scores respectively 5 and 3. e. semagar village semagar village, district of girimarto as selected to represent micro sub watershed at west of north region as research sample. semagar village is located at east from town of girimarto district with distance approximately 5 km away. its area is 498.77 ha, which is divided into 8 hamlets, 8 (ca) citizens association and 19 (na) neighborhood association. the average elevation of this village approximately 600 m from the surface of the sea. from the census of 2009 total population of 3591 people with 1818 males and 1773 womens. table 6. analysis of social economy institutional micro sub watershed at west on north region (semagar village) criteria parameter/integrity integrity score score x integrity social geographic population density 10 5 50 agrarian population density 10 1 10 conservation behavior 20 2 40 customary law 5 2 10 traditional value 5 1 5 economy dependence on land 20 1 20 income ratio 10 3 30 basic activity on region 10 5 50 institutional institutional empowerment conservation 5 1 5 formal institutional empowerment in conservation 5 3 15 vunerability of social, economy and institutional 235 source: primary data, processed 2012 based on the results of the study was obtained that geographic population density has a score 5, while scores in the agrarian population density 1, whereas for conservation behaviors have a score 2. customary law still have important role in the semagar with a score 2, while traditional values have a score 1. economically, state of residents base on dependence on land had a score 1 and an income ratio had a score 3. based on the presence of institutional conservation and formal institutions empowerment on conservation scores respectively 1 and 3. f. setren village setren village, district of slogohimo as selected to represent micro sub watershed at east of north region as research sample. setren village is located at north from town of slogohimo district with distance approximately 7,1 km away. its area is 990,8 ha, which is divided into 4 hamlets, 8 (ca) citizens association and 19 (na) neighborhood association. the average elevation of this village up to 884 m from the surface of the sea. from the census of 2009 total population of 3142 people with 1570 males and 1572 womens. 22 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, no 1, april 2017: 16-24 table 7. analysis of social economy institutional micro sub watershed at east on north region (setren village) source: primary data, processed 2012 based on the results of the study was obtained that geographic population density has a score 3, while scores in the agrarian population density 1, whereas for conservation behaviors have a score 1. customary law still have important role in the setren with a score 2, while traditional values have a score 1. economically, state of residents base on dependence on land had a score 3 and an income ratio had score 4. based on the presence of institutional conservation and formal institutions empowerment on conservation scores 1. empowerment model empowerment model at each sub watershed was based on scoring of social, economy and institutional analysis. empowerment refered to decrease vulnerability on parameter from each criteria that have highest vulnerability value, then it connected with comunity needs that was resulted from interview and observation at field. hopefully, that model can be done and accepted by comunity. because empowerment principle is an effort to achieve community needs, so “stranger” doesn’t have a role as a instructor or builder but have the role as facilitators that be in charge to facilitate, push and ease community in order to empowerment themself. so that facilitators only facilitate in terms of problem analysis, organization assist and advocation of rules. table 8. models of empowerment in watershed kedaung that priorited on resident management and basic activity on region criteria activity facilitators social economy improvement of tourism village/village charm depart. of tourism training of farmer on agrotourism depart. of agriculture management of daity cattle/ etawa goat depart. of agriculture management of livestock and animal waste (biogas, manure) environmental agency empowerment of integrated farming system depart. of agriculture management agricultural product/livestock to support tourism village (typical souvenirs from empowerment board villagers criteria parameter/integrity integrity score score x integrity social geographic population density 10 3 30 agrarian population density 10 1 10 conservation behavior 20 1 20 customary law 5 2 10 traditional value 5 1 5 economy dependence on land 20 3 60 income ratio 10 4 40 basic activity on region 10 5 50 institutional institutional empowerment conservation 5 1 5 formal institutional empowerment in conservation 5 1 5 vunerability of social, economy and institutional 235 social-economics analysis and community… (sarjiyanto, supriyadi, arif budi nugroho) 23 criteria activity facilitators setren) training of local tradition depart. of tourism training of souvenirs making (puppet, tradition local) department of trade improvement of tourism market depart. of cooperative training of conservation technic (land management, breeding) estate agency cultivation on community forest/garden/horticultura with basic of improvement tourism (durian, coffee beans, avocado,cacao,snakefruit, vegetables) depart. of agriculture cultivation of fishing pond fisheries department regulation institutional empowerment of farmer group/ training of tourism farmer empowerment board empowermnet of farmers community local goverment reinforcement of cooperation in community (managemnet training) depart. of cooperative organizing of conservation village device farmers community source: mapping results, 2012 conclusion and recommendations conclusion the result from analysis of vulnerability levels on social, economy and institutional was obtained score to each sample region, as follows: a) pondoksari village score 275 in the category moderate with vulnerability level is slightly susceptible, the highest vulnerability value on activity of conservation and region basic activity. b) sembukan village score 200 in the category slightly low with vulnerability level is slightly susceptible, the highest vulnerability value on activity of conservation and geographic population density. c) padarangin village score 290 in the category moderate with vulnerability level is slightly susceptible, the highest vulnerability value on geographic population density, agrarian population denstiy and region basic activity. d) semin village score 260 in the category moderate with vulnerability level is slightly susceptible, the highest vulnerability value on geographic population density and region basic activity. e) semagar village score 235 in the category slightly low with vulnerability level is slightly susceptible, the highest vulnerability value on geographic population density and region basic activity. f) setren village score 235 in the category slightly low with vulnerability level is slightly susceptible, the highest vulnerability value on land dependence and region basic activity. empowerment model for each region can’t be generalized although vulnerability value with the same score and same parameter. that model can be more focus on community needs and resources available, so that goverment in this case work area unit of wonogiri local government and relevant agency sincerely can be as facilitators in order to analize problems, assist on organizing and advocation of rule. 24 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, no 1, april 2017: 16-24 recommendation a. watershed management implementation must always associate with accessibility conditions that exist in society. the more open society conditions will be different with a more closed society. b. improvement income can be done with earn income outside agriculture, especially livestock, trading, agroindustry and activity that basic on resources on watershed region. c. model of participate natural resources conservation can be done according to the stage where an understanding of conservation socialized well, especially in the coordination group given the authority to coordinate the relevant stakeholders that support conservation activities. in addition, needed the individual commitment of the decision makers on-site conservation activities. therefore, coordination and socialization understanding of the importance of conservation with related agencies should be conducted continuously through a variety of formal and informal meetings without any limitation of quantity meeting. d. need to be arranged grand design keduang watershed management that it is linking various stakeholders. grand design that really targeted and sustainable is in effort to collaborate the work program which is owned by each work area unit of wonogiri local government so that keduang community development and conservation and watershed management will not overlap in tupoksi and programs. references bappeda dan bps kabupaten wonogiri, 2010 “wonogiri dalam angka tanun 2010”. bappeda dan bps kabupaten wonogiri, 2010, “kecamatan girimarto dalam angka tahun 2009”. bappeda dan bps kabupaten wonogiri, 2010, “kecamatan nguntoronadi dalam angka tahun 2009”. bappeda dan bps kabupaten wonogiri, 2010, “kecamatan sidoharjo dalam angka tahun 2009”. bappeda dan bps kabupaten wonogiri, 2010, “kecamatan slogohimo dalam angka tahun 2009”. bappeda dan bps kabupaten wonogiri, 2010, “pdrb kabupaten wonogiri tahun 2009”. bappeda kabupaten wonogiri, 2010, “data dan analisis rencana tata ruang wilayah (rtrw) kabupaten wonogiri tahun 2010-2030”. bappeda kabupaten wonogiri, 2010, “laporan kegiatan penunjang penyusunan dan pengembangan profil daerah kabupaten wonogiri tahun 2009”. dewi r indrawati, purwanto, dan paimin, 2009 “formulasi kerentanan sosial ekonomi dan kelembagan sebagai diagnosis degradasi lahan”. laverack, g.; wallerstein, n. 2001. measuring community empowerment: a fresh look at organizational domains. health promot. int. mattessich, p. and monsey, m. 2004. community building: what makes it work, st. paul. mn: wilder foundation. rich, m.j.; stoker, r.p. 2009. rethinking empowerment: local empowerment zone programs. urb. aff. rev. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 23 no 2, october 2022 article type: research paper the determinants of international tourism: evidence from european countries and china’s provinces zhang cheng1,2 and faiza husnayeni nahar3,4* abstract: tourism has been reported as one of the largest economic sectors in the world. it is shown by more than hundreds of jobs involved in this sector which directly escalate the welfare and economic growth of a country. thus, government will support any actions that could improve competitiveness and profitability of tourism industry. the main objective of this paper is to determine the significant factors of international tourism receipts by 18 european countries and 12 provinces of western china between 1995 and 2019. based on data, europe known as the world’s largest international tourist receipt in 2019 followed by asia and the pacific including china. it is interesting to note that china, particularly in western part, has contributed more on achieving tourism receipt. china has potential to grow its tourism sector in significant trend due to its large land size and massive human resources that might further defeat europe’s total tourist receipt. by using panel autoregressive distributed lag (ardl) model, there would be different responses related to determinant factors of tourism over long run and short run. the result revealed that population, carbon dioxide emission and trade openness have positive effect to the international tourism receipt in europe in the long run while the rest explanatory variables such as transportation infrastructure and energy consumption have negative effect to the international tourism receipt in europe. while in case of china, population and energy consumption are statistically significant and positive to international tourism receipt in the long-run correlation, but the rest variables are having negative effect. unfortunately, in the short-run effect, it was found that all variables are not statistically significant at least at the ten percent significance level in both europe and china. from the result, the europe and chinese policy makers can evaluate the policy based on each result. for instance, the fact that the high level of population density could reach larger tourism receipt is not always true, government need to provide some training for the party who will be involved in tourism industry to gain knowledge and encourage them to be more creative and innovative. hence the good quality of listed tourism destination would attract more tourist to the destination country. keywords: tourism; ardl; china; europe jel classification: z32; c23; q43; b17 introduction tourism has become a key driver for the world wide’s economics. according to world travel & tourism council (2020), it is reported that there are 330 million jobs involved in this service-sector industry, which is equivalent to 1 out of 10 jobs on the planet in 2019. in total, tourism contributed to 10.3 affiliation: 1 faculty of economics and business, universitat autonòma de barcelona, spain 2 xizang office of china banking and insurance regulatory commission, china 3 faculty of economics and business, universidad de granada, spain 4 department of economics, faculty of economics and business, universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta, indonesia *correspondence: faizahusnayeni@umy.ac.id this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v23i2.15714 citation: cheng, z., & nahar, f. h. (2022). the determinants of international tourism: evidence from european countries and china’s provinces. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 23(2), 267-288. article history received: 03 aug 2022 revised: 29 aug 2022 accepted: 07 nov 2022 https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?user=f2fai-qaaaaj&hl=en&oi=ao https://www.uab.cat/web/faculty-of-economics-and-business-studies-1345696106014.html https://www.uab.cat/web/faculty-of-economics-and-business-studies-1345696106014.html https://www.uab.cat/web/faculty-of-economics-and-business-studies-1345696106014.html https://www.cbirc.gov.cn/en/view/pages/index/index.html https://www.cbirc.gov.cn/en/view/pages/index/index.html https://www.cbirc.gov.cn/en/view/pages/index/index.html https://www.ugr.es/en/about/organization/entities/faculty-economics-and-business https://www.ugr.es/en/about/organization/entities/faculty-economics-and-business https://www.ugr.es/en/about/organization/entities/faculty-economics-and-business https://economics-feb.umy.ac.id/ https://economics-feb.umy.ac.id/ https://economics-feb.umy.ac.id/ https://economics-feb.umy.ac.id/ mailto:faizahusnayeni@umy.ac.id http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/15714 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v23i2.15714&domain=pdf cheng & nahar the determinants of international tourism: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 268 percent of global gdp. the role of tourism is not only as a direct positive contribution but also it increases the overall economy as a result of tourism multiplier effects (sabriye, 2015); such as employment promotion (hughes, 1994) and increasing economic growth (li et al., 2018). thus, it is not surprising that tourism is becoming one of the most remarkable industries in this recent decades. based on data of unwto (2020), in 2019, europe remained the world’s largest region in term of international tourist arrival and tourism receipt with about 744 million and usd 574 billion income, respectively. it is followed by asia and pacific with 362 million tourist arrival and usd 443 billion tourism receipt. surprisingly, china remained at the top country in asia and pacific region in term of international tourist arrival and top 5 largest international tourism receipt. from the figure 1 of europe’s scale, it is found that germany, italy, france, and spain’s travel and tourisms are contributing more to their own gdp. while in china, especially in the western part known as western china, also contribute better on tourism receipt. due to the fact that western china’s size land is roughly 71.03 percent of china’s total land size, and the population is nearly to 29 percent of the total population, it is very likely to be connected to the rise in international tourist arrivals and tourism receipts in the western china (wenjuan & jixi, 2004). in addition, from the figure it also shown that four out of 12 provinces of western china attracted more tourists with higher tourist receipts. thus, provinces are yunnan, guangxi and guizhou, and shaanxi. figure 1 tourism revenue of europe countries and chinese provinces in 2019 note: the higher colour saturation represents the higher the international tourism receipts of the country (province). the data sources for europe are from world bank while the source for china is nbs. due to those reasons, this study would analyse the determinant factors of international tourism receipts by 18 european countries and 12 provinces of western china between 1995 and 2019. in this study, the independent variables are determinant factors of international tourism, such as carbon dioxide emissions, population, transportation infrastructure, energy consumption, and trade openness. while the dependent variable is international tourist receipt. the methodology of this study is using panel cheng & nahar the determinants of international tourism: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 269 autoregressive distributed lag (ardl) model aimed to examine the short-run and longrun relationship between dependent variable to the explanatory variables. in this study, it is also necessary to select either mean group (mg) and pooled mean group (pmg) as appropriate estimator for measuring the model. many studies have been conducted to investigate the determinant factors of international tourism around the world. relevant to carbon dioxide emission as one of factors that influence international tourism. anser et al. (2020) explained that high carbon dioxide emissions damage tends to decrease international tourism receipts by 5.15 percent in across countries particularly in 132 countries from 1995 to 2018. in addition, by using gmm estimator, the ex-ante analysis shows that when carbon dioxide emissions damage is largely increased from 0.832 percent to 1.025 percent, international tourism receipts tend to decrease from 19.758 percent to 12.384 percent for the next 10 years. thus, mitigating carbon dioxide emission through sustainable production and consumption, and strict environmental regulations are highly needed for making tourist visit a country regularly. although tourist preferences are varied, for instance they tend to visit mountain rather than beach or tourist prefer to eat in traditional restaurant than the famous one, yet all tourists are definitely like to breath and enjoy fresh air. thus, mitigating the carbon dioxide emission to be as low as possible would indirectly attract more tourist arrival thus increasing tourism receipt as well. furthermore, zhang et al. (2019) also found that carbon dioxide emission had negative long run relationship toward inbound tourists in thailand from 2001 to 2017. inbound tourists are visitors who visit thailand from outside of thailand. by using ardl model, the findings show that poor environmental sustainability caused greater carbon dioxide emission in thailand and leading to the decline of inbound tourism. thus, the government was suggested to implement green economy policy, for instance, giving heavy tax for nongreen product and using green vehicle without polluting the air. on the other hand, jianping et al. (2015) found that carbon dioxide emissions have a more pronounced positive effect on tourism industry in china since most regions, except eastern and central parts of china, mainly promote tourism as an economic growth at the expense of the ecological environment. in other word, they sacrifice their environmental sustainability in aim to gain more revenue from tourism activities. it is said that the increase of ecological damage caused by tourism has been interpreted as a fruitful development in economy. while in the literature related to population and international tourism, bernini and cracolici (2015) used the hurdle model to verify that the influence of population factors, such as age and groups, on tourism decision-making and tourism expenditure are statistically significant. through the analysis of data on italian household expenditures from 1997 to 2007, empirical evidence shows that the population’s age factor has a positive effect on tourism intentions and a negative effect on tourism consumption expenditures. subsequently hui et al. (2018) focused on the impact of population’s size and structure on china's tourism industry. they collected two sets of indicator data of china’s tourism industry and population from 1995 to 2014 and used canonical correlation analysis methods. the results show that the changes in population size and structure are highly related to the development of tourism. there is a significant positive cheng & nahar the determinants of international tourism: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 270 correlation between population size and tourism. in addition, the process of aging is also highly positively correlated with tourism. this is because the increase in population size provides more labour for the tourism industry, and the elderly are more inclined to travel. moreover, they also emphasized that the impact of demographic factors on tourism is important and comprehensive. they suggested that the granger causality test can be deployed to further confirm the impacts of population on tourism. in the context of transportation infrastructure, khadaroo and seetanah (2007) investigated the impact of mauritius island's transportation infrastructure on tourist arrivals. through the random effects panel model, the study obtained that the transportation infrastructure has a positive impact on tourist arrivals at a ten percent significance level. a one percent increase in transportation infrastructure is likely to increase tourist arrivals by 0.36 percent. in addition, wang et al. (2017) also found that high-speed rail strengthened the spatial connection of beijing-shanghai metropolitan area, expanded its tourism target range, and promoted the optimization of the large-scale regional tourism spatial structure of the metropolitan area. they employ gis analysis method to investigate the effect of high-speed railway accessibility in 338 cities. they found that the transportation infrastructure of high-speed rail has a significant positive correlation with the field strength value of tourist destinations. getahun (2016) also revealed that in lake tana, northwest ethiopia, transportation infrastructure and tourism are highly related internally. in particular, the road network and passenger arrivals showed a clear positive correlation. study related to energy consumption and tourism has been conducted by işik et al. (2017). they used the emirmahmutoglu–kose bootstrap granger non-causality method to investigate the relationship between tourism receipts and energy consumption in the ten countries with most tourists. they found that there is different response of causality test for each country. there is evidence of unidirectional causality from tourist arrivals to energy consumption in spain, turkey, italy, the united states, and the united kingdom. while at the same time, there is no causal relationship between tourism revenue and energy consumption in france, germany, and russia. in addition, nižić et al. (2016) found that the impact of energy to the tourism industry is undeniable, as the increase in tourism activities is accompanied by an increase in the demand for energy for various functions. becken et al. (2003) determined that transportation and accommodation are the main areas of energy consumption in the tourism industry. the energy supply in tourist areas is critical to the success of the tourism industry. amin (2015) found that the price of oil is the main determinant of macroeconomic activities, and the tourism industry also heavily relies on oil for transportation and other tourism-related activities, such as accommodation and entertainment. as tourism prices remain high, the impact of oil price shocks will have a significant impact on the tourism industry. in addition, kulendran and wilson (2000) took the lead in putting forward the hypo-study of "whether human tourism is related to international trade." the conclusion enhances that there is a relationship between trade openness and tourism. chaisumpunsakul and pholphirul (2018) used the data from thailand and 207 trading partner countries, they found that the degree of trade openness is positively correlated with international cheng & nahar the determinants of international tourism: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 271 tourism demand. chenhao et al. (2018) employed a single co-integration equation to analyse the number of chinese tourist arrivals from five middle asian countries from 2001 to 2015 and their statistical data on imports/exports to china. they conducted an empirical study on the equilibrium relationship between inbound chinese tourists and import and export trade volume in five central asian countries. they performed the granger causality test on the relationship. the study results revealed a long-run stable equilibrium relationship between china's inbound tourism and import and export trade with the five middle asian countries. from the above previous literature explanation, it can be summarized that all variables are positively affecting tourism receipt, except carbon dioxide emission. both developed and developing countries aimed to gain more gdp through external and internal revenue. the fact that tourism is a promising industry and being one of largest income source for a country, thus, it encourages the government and policy maker to find any best option for developing their country by any state. transforming land into hotel, mall, theme park or any commercial places to attract people for visiting and expanding the main street for reducing traffic congestion are some of government agenda in improving their tourism activity. unfortunately, those actions might harm ecological environment, whereas the environment is damaged as consequences for the developed tourism industry. the worsening air pollution and a smaller percentage of global farmland are the examples of tourism development’s impacts. in addition, the government might think that damages to the environment could be a sign of fruitful tourism sector which leads to gain multiple benefit (jianping et al., 2015). in other word, the damage has simply unbothered them to earn more and more income. although some country might already offer green tourism activity, the impact of tourism to the nature still needs to be discussed. therefore, this study is expected to contribute better on finding the determinants factor on international tourism receipt across countries by using ardl model in aim to examine its short-run effect and long-run impact of factors to tourism. by investigating the short and long-run impacts, government and policy maker could identify which part of variables need to be evaluated. subsequently, after obtaining the results through effective research methods, this study compares the results of the two regions to gain a deeper understanding of the impact of these determinants. thus, by understanding the relationship between five explanatory variables such as carbon dioxide emissions, population, transportation infrastructure, energy consumption, and trade openness toward international tourism receipt, this study might become a part of recommendation and suggestion for the government and policy maker in order to escalate tourism sector services. this study is continued by organizing the research method and how the discussion is conducted, such as how to get the data, variables and determining the methods. then, the next section would interpret the econometric result and elaborate more on the discussion. finally, the discussion would end with the conclusion, limitation, and suggestion for further research. cheng & nahar the determinants of international tourism: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 272 research method data this paper aims to analyze the determinant factors of international tourism in europe and china. the data source has been collected from the national statistical bureau of china, ceads (carbon dioxide emission accounts & datasets) and the world bank, they covered the data on most of the required variables from 1995 to 2019. for europe, the data is taken from 18 countries; austria, belgium, czech, demark, finland, france, germany, greece, hungary, ireland, italy, netherland, norway, poland, portugal, spain, sweden, and switzerland. while china’s data used 12 provinces in western china; gansu, guangxi, guizhou, hainan, inner mongolia, ningxia, qinghai, shaanxi, sichuan, tibet, xinjiang, and yunnan. in this study, the explanatory variables are carbon dioxide emissions, population, transportation infrastructure, energy consumption, and trade openness while the dependent variable is international tourist receipt. in the context of definition, energy consumption (ec) is counted as kilogram fossil fuel energy per capita and percent of total energy consumption (for european countries). while transport infrastructure (tran) is defined by the proxied of length of the highway in each region in china and the percentage of value-added in transport’s equipment manufactures in europe. carbon dioxide emissions (co2) is counted as ton per capita, where china’ carbon dioxide emissions data are only derived from ceads. ceads is a jointly compiled multi-scale carbon accounting lists and socio-economic and trade databases for china, developing countries, and regions with the joint support of many research institutions. furthermore, trade openness (to) is referred to a proportion of international trade and international tourist receipt (tr) counted in current us dollar as expenditure of international inbound tourist. inbound tourist refers to a tourist who visit a country where they are not resident of that destination country. table 1 data sources and definition variables definition transform sources tr international tourism receipts (million usd) natural log form (lntr) world bank (europe); national bureau of statistics (china) co2 co2 emission per capita (ton per capita) natural log form (lnco2) world bank (europe); carbon dioxide emission account & datasets (china) pop total population (europe: aged 15-16; million) natural log form (lnpop) world bank (europe); national bureau of statistics (china) tran percentage of value added in transport (europe; %), length of highway (china; km) natural log form (lntran) world bank (europe); national bureau of statistics (china) ec fossil fuel energy consumption (kg per capita) natural log form (lnec) world bank (europe); national bureau of statistics (china) to trade openness, proportion of international trade natural log form (lnto) world bank (europe); national bureau of statistics (china) cheng & nahar the determinants of international tourism: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 273 for case of population definition (pop), since both region data are collected from different source, world bank for europe and the national bureau of statistics of china for china, there is a difference on putting the definition of population. in europe, population is counted between 15 and 64 years old, while the population variable of chinese provinces represents the total population. however, because the two models are separated, the difference does not affect the results. in addition, international tourism income is the explained variable of current study, which also reflects the development of the region's tourism industry. in short, the data sources and definition are explained in the table 1. this study converted all variables into natural log form since the heteroscedasticity can be reduced due to the logarithmic transformation of the data by compressing the variable measurement scale (gujarati, 2004). table 2 showed the descriptive statistics of each variable. for european countries, the skewness and kurtosis values indicate that the distribution of all variables are skewed, which is different from the normal distribution ( kurniawan & a'yun, 2022). furthermore, the jarque-bera (jb) statistical test reveals that the unconditional distribution of all variables is non-normal. therefore, the traditional ols linear regression method may lead to biased estimation results. in other words, it is more suitable to use the panel ardl method to study the heterogeneous effects of factors such as carbon dioxide emissions on the tourism industry. for china’s provinces, the skewness and kurtosis values represent that the distribution of all variables are different from the normal distribution. furthermore, the jarque-bera (jb) statistical test shows that except for energy consumption (lnec), other variables are significant at one percent level, and lnco2 is significant at the ten percent level. the panel ardl model requires all variables as endogenous variables and assumes that there is a linear causal relationship between the variables. moreover, by constructing a lag term, the panel ardl model required an error correction mechanism (ecm) model, which can effectively estimate the long-term and short-term effects of variables and the short-term to long-term adjustment speed (kurniawan & a'yun, 2022). in order to study the short-run and long-run relationship between tourism and determinants, based on the panel ardl model proposed by pesaran and shin (1997), this paper constructs the test model by following: qlntr(τk|αi, xit, ξt) = αi + β1τlnco2it + β2τ lnpopit + β3τ lntranit + β4τ lnecit + β5τ lntoit + ξt (1) the definition of the variables in equation (1) is consistent with table 1., t represents the year. 𝑖 represents a country in the european model, and its value range is i = 1, 2...,18. while in the chinese model, i represents a province, and its value range is i=1, 2...,12. cheng & nahar the determinants of international tourism: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 274 table 2 descriptive statistics lntr (tourism receipt) lnco2 (carbon dioxide emission) lnpop (population) lntran (transport infrastructure) lnec (energy consumption) lnto (trade openness) e u ro p e a n c o u n trie s mean 9.21 2.05 2.22 5.40 4.27 4.45 median 9.12 2.08 1.94 5.48 4.38 4.40 maximum 11.31 2.62 4.02 6.10 4.59 5.48 minimum 7.25 1.36 0.85 0.14 3.22 3.61 std. dev. 0.93 0.29 0.93 0.58 0.28 0.39 skewness 0.30 -0.28 0.65 -4.98 -1.26 0.31 kurtosis 2.33 2.01 2.06 40.57 3.96 2.29 jarque-bera 15.2*** 21.2*** 48.1*** 27000*** 114.9*** 16.8*** observation 449 392 450 424 378 450 c h in e se p ro v in ce s mean 7.15 3.78 4.86 4.22 3.20 2.87 median 7.23 3.73 4.86 4.30 3.17 2.34 maximum 10.85 5.55 6.52 5.82 5.17 17.22 minimum 2.13 2.27 2.90 2.15 0.57 0.14 std. dev. 1.85 0.75 0.94 0.88 0.85 2.77 skewness -0.48 0.37 -0.03 -0.26 0.07 4.35 kurtosis 2.91 2.88 1.72 2.12 3.27 21.17 jarque-bera 11.7*** 5.4* 20.6*** 13.3*** 1.0 5075*** observation 300 227 300 300 250 300 note: *, **, *** represent significance of the coefficients at the 10%, 5%, and 1% levels respectively. to ensure the logarithm form is positive, for china and europe, the lntr= ln (10*tourism receipts), and carbon dioxide emission is calculated in same way. according to pesaran (2021), a panel autoregressive distributed lag model with longterm relationship coefficients can be represented as equation (2), which contains the short-run and long-run coefficients, moreover, there is also the error correction term to measure the adjustment speed from the short run to long run in this form. ∆lntrit = β0 + ∑ αi1 n i=1 ∆lntrt−i + ∑ γ2i n i=1 ∆lntri,t−i + ∑ σ3 n i=1 ∆lnco2i,t−i + ∑ θ4 n i=1 ∆lnpopi,t−i + ∑ τ5 n i=1 ∆lntrani,t−i + ∑ φ6 n i=1 ∆lneci,t−i + ∑ ω7 n i=1 ∆lntoit + β1τlnco2it + β2τ lnpopit + β3τ lntranit + β4τ lnecit + β5τ lntoit + δeci,t−1 + μit (2) thus, βi measures the long-term impact of explanatory variables on the tourism industry, eci,t−1 represents error correction, μit is the error term, and the α, γ, σ, θ, τ, φ and ω rest are the coefficients of short-term impact. when the coefficients in the estimation results are significant, it can be considered that there is a short-term or long-term dynamic relationship between the variables. cheng & nahar the determinants of international tourism: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 275 furthermore, ardl model also benefits this study by its characteristic. the advantages of the ardl model are (1) the unnecessity to test whether the variable is single first-order integrality in advance, which is the biggest advantage of the ardl method. traditional methods almost require all variables to enter the model with single first-order integral, that is, i(1). the ardl method does not have strict requirements on the stability of the data, no matter whether the data is i(1) or i(0), and whether there is a cointegration relationship between them, this method can be implemented (pesaran & shin, 1997). in other words, it is not necessary to consider whether the time series entering the model is pure i(0) or pure i(1) or a mixture of i(0) and i(1). next, (2) there is no need to consider whether the variable is endogenous. pesaran et al. (1996) believes that cointegration vector autoregressive analysis involves many endogenous and exogenous variable selections, determination of lag order, determination of trend terms, and intercept terms so that the study's conclusions are filled with uncertainty. the robustness of the model is not high. the ardl method will not affect the estimation of the model even when the explanatory variable is endogenous, and the estimation result is more robust. lastly, (3) it simultaneously reflects the shortrun and long-run relationship (narayan & narayan, 2006). the ardl method can derive a dynamic error correction model through a simple linear transformation (banerjee & newman, 1993), integrating short-term and long-term dynamics. this paper applies mean group (mg) and pooled mean group (pmg) to estimate the equation, whereas the final model is determined by hausmann's test. result and discussion in this section, the econometric result and discussion would be further elaborated. before ardl model is executed, there are few steps need to be conducted. the first one is crosssectional dependence (dc) and unit root test, followed by cointegration test, optimal lags selection, and the last step is estimating mean group (mg) or pooled mean group (pmg) econometric result a. cross-sectional dependence (cd) test and unit root test due to the characteristics of panel data, a common cause may affect all individuals, which may lead to cross-sectional dependence. when there is cross-section correlation, the traditional panel unit root test will be invalid. therefore, before the unit root test of the variables, this study first conducted the cd test panel independence test, the results of this test are shown in table 3. table 3 reveals that the variables are all strongly significant at the one percent level through the cd test, which rejecting the null hypo-study. therefore, the panel data used in this paper does not have panel independence, so the unit root test is performed on the variables. commonly used basic unit root testing methods, such as ips and fisher, assumed that the cross-section is irrelevant, but according to the results of the cd test, cheng & nahar the determinants of international tourism: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 276 such assumption is rejected. therefore, current study employs the second-generation unit root test method, the cross-section augmented dickey-fuller (cadf). the paper still applies the ips and fisher method as the reference for the cadf unit root test. the results are shown in table 4. table 3 results of cd test cd test p value e u ro p e a n c o u n trie s lntr 53.87*** 0.00 lnco2 37.55*** 0.00 lnpop 14.18*** 0.00 lntran 15.40*** 0.00 lnec 36.87*** 0.00 lnto 47.63*** 0.00 c h in e se p ro v in ce s lntr 30.03*** 0.00 lnco2 29.90*** 0.00 lnpop 40.46*** 0.00 lntran 37.71*** 0.00 lnec 33.31*** 0.00 lnto 39.95*** 0.00 note: *, **, *** represent statistical significance at the 10 percent, 5 percent, and 1 percent levels respectively. null hypo-study of cd test: panel independence exists. from the table 4, it can be concluded that all five determinants and tourism receipts are stationed at one percent significant level in first difference term since the p value of cadf test in first difference form are all smaller than 0.01. even by looking through the traditional unit root test method such as ips and fisher methods, the results are consistent with cadf from the perspective of first differences term. it also reveals that lntr, lnco2, lnpop in europe and lnco2, lntran and lnec in china rejected the null hypo-study within ten percent of significant level in level term. hence all variables are i(0) or i(1) and it is plausible to estimate the panel ardl model. table 4 results of unit root test level first difference ips fisher cadf ips fisher cadf e u ro p e a n c o u n trie s lntr 2.31 -8.02*** -2.15** -10.98*** -11.86*** -5.69*** lnco2 4.68 -7.52*** -3.52*** -7.31*** -12.11*** -7.86*** lnpop -2.21** -5.24*** -1.49* -2.43*** -7.56*** -2.87*** lntran 0.44 -4.90*** 2.32 -9.79*** -12.88*** -7.30*** lnec 6.75 -3.89*** 0.28 -6.49*** -11.85*** -6.20*** lnto -1.70** -7.76*** 0.44 -12.09*** -12.24*** -5.11*** c h in e se p ro v in ce s lntr 3.57 -5.32*** -1.17 -9.03*** -11.40*** -6.19*** lnco2 2.36 -5.13*** -4.30*** -3.91*** -9.87*** -6.25*** lnpop 3.68 -4.48*** -0.63 -3.08*** -9.29*** -3.68*** lntran 2.06 -5.81*** -1.59* -6.16*** -9.57*** -4.85*** lnec 3.65 -3.03*** -6.00*** -2.89*** -9.14*** -4.86*** lnto -7.20 -4.24*** 2.98 -14.28*** -10.81*** -5.00*** note: *, **, *** represent statistical significance at the 10 percent, 5 percent, and 1 percent levels respectively. cheng & nahar the determinants of international tourism: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 277 b. co-integration test the common method for variables with unit roots is to make a first-order difference, hence this study obtains stationary series. however, the meaning of the variables after the first difference is different from the original sequence. currently, we are still hoping to use the original sequence for regression. the table 5 presents the result of pedroni and kao co-integration test. since the most statistics are significant at one percent level, we can reject the null hypo-study of no co-integration. furthermore, this study applied the kao co-integration test and obtained the same output, the null hypo-study is rejected. so, we can conclude that there is a significant cointegration relationship between variables. table 5 results of pedroni and kao co-integration test statistics p value e u ro p e a n c o u n trie s pedroni modified phillips–perron 3.63*** 0.00 pedroni phillips–perron -1.68** 0.04 pedroni adf -1.17 0.12 kao test -3.97*** 0.00 c h in e se p ro v in ce s pedroni modified phillips–perron 2.74*** 0.00 pedroni phillips–perron -1.76** 0.04 pedroni adf -2.16** 0.02 kao test 3.08*** 0.00 note: *, **, *** represent significance of statistics value at the 10 percent, 5 percent, and 1 percent levels respectively. null hypo-study of co-integration: cointegration relationship does not exist. on the assumption of long-run homogeneity, the pedroni or kao co-integration test can be skipped. co-integration is ascertained from the statistical significance of the long-run coefficients and the error correction term. in other words, co-integration presents itself as the joint significance of the level equation. c. optimal lags selection to obtain the best lags structure, this paper runs the ardl model on the time series of each country (or province) and then counts the frequency of the lag term of each variable in each country (or province), and finally chooses the lags with the highest frequency as the final result. table 6 showed the results of selecting the optimal lag structure. the maximum lags setting in this paper is two because more extensive lag will cause collinearity problems and make it impossible to run the ardl model for some countries (or provinces). from table 6, we can see that the optimal lag of european countries' data is (2 2 1 2 2 1). for variables such as lntr, the frequency of lag 0 is 0, lag 1 is 8, and lag 2 is 10. therefore, we should choose lag two which has the highest frequency, as the lag of lntr. in addition, the sum of frequencies is 18, which is the same as the number of countries. this also verifies that each country runs the ardl model individually. for chinese provinces, the optimal lag structure is (1 1 2 2 1 0). we noticed that the sum of frequencies is 9, and the number of provinces is 12. the reason is because of an unbalanced panel. the missing data of some provinces and collinearity cause no results in cheng & nahar the determinants of international tourism: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 278 the remaining three provinces, but the panel ardl model can still work; and the optimal lag structure is adequate. d. panel ardl: mg and pmg the mean-group (mg) estimates n time-series-equations and averaging the coefficients while the pooled mean-group (pmg) uses a combination of pooling and averaging of coefficients (blackburne & frank, 2007). we applied international tourism receipts as dependent variables while carbon dioxide emission, population, energy consumption, transport infrastructure and trade openness as explanatory variables. the pmg estimation method can be applied to estimate the variables with cointegration relationship under the premise of satisfying the existence of cointegration relationship (pesaran et al., 1999). the pmg method can estimate the relationship between the cointegration variables and gives an error correction coefficient, which confirms the existence of a long-term relationship (darsono et al., 2022). moreover, we can consider the relationship is significant and efficient only when the error correction coefficient is significantly negative hausman test is the judgment standard for selecting mg estimator and pmg estimator for panel ardl analysis. according to the results of the hausman test in table 7, this paper believes that the pmg estimator is a more appropriate estimator for the model compared to the mg estimator. table 6 optimal lags for european countries and china’s provinces lag 0 frequency lag 1 frequency lag 2 frequency results e u ro p e a n c o u n trie s lntr 0 8 10 2 lnco2 2 7 9 2 lnpop 5 13 0 1 lntran 3 5 10 2 lnec 3 4 11 2 lnto 7 11 0 1 c h in e se p ro v in ce s lntr 0 6 3 1 lnco2 3 6 0 1 lnpop 3 1 5 2 lntran 2 0 7 2 lnec 4 5 0 1 lnto 6 3 0 0 note: the method is to run ardl model for each individual and then select the most common lags for each variable. the reason is because the ecm’s coefficients are significantly negative, which reveal that there is a significant long-term relationship between variables in european countries. in addition, from the results of pmg estimation, the coefficients of the variables are not significant at least at the ten percent level for the short-term relationship, but the coefficients of all determinants are statistically significant at the one percent significance level in long-term relationship. cheng & nahar the determinants of international tourism: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 279 table 7 results of mg and pmg models for european countries variables mg pmg coefficients p-value coefficients p-value long run lnco2 2.640* 0.063 2.026*** 0.000 lnpop 6.708 0.108 4.047*** 0.000 lntran -0.458 0.419 -0.642*** 0.000 lnec -9.098** 0.027 -4.098*** 0.000 lnto 0.116 0.810 1.811*** 0.000 short run ecm -0.583*** 0.000 -0.295*** 0.000 ∆lnco2 -0.506 0.260 0.006 0.976 ∆lnpop -5.405 0.420 -3.552 0.325 ∆lntran 0.004 0.979 0.101 0.475 ∆lnec 0.316 0.850 -0.281 0.685 ∆lnto 0.108 0.517 -0.068 0.568 _cons -1.024* 0.915 2.718*** 0.000 hausman test chi2: 5.40 prob>chi2 0.37 dependent variable lntr observations 450 note: *, **, *** represent statistical significance at the 10 percent, 5 percent, and 1 percent levels respectively. in the long run, carbon dioxide emissions, population, and trade openness are positively correlated with the explained variable (international tourism receipt); while transport infrastructure and energy consumption are negatively correlated with the explained variable. one percent increase in carbon dioxide emissions will increase international tourism receipt by 2.026 percent; a one percent population growth will increase international tourism receipt by 4.047 percent; an increase in trade openness by one percent will increase tourism receipt by 1.811 percent. moreover, for every one percent increase in the value-added of transportation equipment, international tourism receipt will decrease by 0.642 percent; for every one percent increase in energy consumption, international tourism receipt will decrease by 4.098 percent. furthermore, table 8 shows the results of the panel ardl model for chinese provinces. this table also applied similar step like table 7. from the table, it can be concluded that pmg estimation is better than mg estimation by hausmann's test. in the pmg model, the coefficient of the error correction term is negative and significant at the one percent level, which confirm that the determinant and the explained variable (international tourism receipts) are strongly correlated in the long run. like the european model, the coefficients of the determinants in china are not statistically significant in the short run. however, the coefficients of all variables are enormously significant at the one percent level in the long run. in the long-term relationship, carbon dioxide emissions, population, and transport infrastructure are positively correlated with the explained variable (international tourism receipt), while energy consumption and trade openness are all negatively correlated with international tourism receipt. cheng & nahar the determinants of international tourism: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 280 table 8 results of mg and pmg models for china’s provinces variables mg pmg coefficients p-value coefficients p-value long run lnco2 1.821 0.32 -0.495* 0.07 lnpop 1.478*** 0.00 0.929*** 0.00 lntran 0.294 0.83 -0.893*** 0.00 lnec -2.422 0.33 1.255*** 0.00 lnto -0.064*** 0.00 -0.022** 0.04 short run ecm -0.837*** 0.00 -0.471*** 0.00 ∆lnco2 -0.921 0.32 -0.091 0.85 ∆lnpop -0.926 0.11 -0.268 0.46 ∆lntran 0.207 0.43 0.170 0.51 ∆lnec 0.143 0.84 -0.457 0.42 ∆lnto 0.011** 0.01 -0.004 0.40 _cons 3.01*** 0.00 2.34 0.00 hausman test chi2: 2.86 prob>chi2 0.72 dependent variable: lntr observations 300 note: *, **, *** represent statistical significance of coefficients of determinants at the 10 percent, 5 percent, and 1 percent levels respectively. in the long run, a percentage increase in carbon dioxide emissions will decrease international tourism receipts by 0.495 percent; a one percent increase in population will increase international tourism receipt by 0.929 percent. one percent increase in the length of highways as proxied of transport infrastructure will decrease the receipt of international tourism by 0.893 percent. at the same time, if energy consumption increases by one percent, tourism revenue will decrease by 1.255 percent; if trade openness increases by one percent, international tourism receipt will decrease by 0.022 percent. causality can be observed through ecm, long-term, and short-run coefficients. because the coefficients of the error correction terms of the two models are enormously significant at the one percent level, we can conclude that joint causality is strong. while the short-run coefficients are not significant, it reveals that the shortrun causality is not significant; the longrun coefficients are all enormously significant at the one percent level, so there is the strong long-run causality. comparison between europe and china to compare the results of europe to china, the current study organizes the pmg model results of the two regions into table 9. the pronounced difference lies in carbon dioxide emissions. it is interesting to note that the rise of carbon dioxide emission’s damage by one percent led to a rise of the tourism receipt by 2.026 percent in europe. the impact of greater carbon dioxide emission’s damage in europe has surprisingly contributed positively on tourism receipt in there. on the contrary, in china, a one percent increase in carbon dioxide emissions tends to reduce international tourism receipt by 0.495 percent. this phenomenon is interesting because the long-run effects of the same determinant in different regions are contrasting. in the original data, chinese provinces' average carbon dioxide emissions are 5.93 tons per capita. in comparison, in european countries, it is 8.08 cheng & nahar the determinants of international tourism: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 281 tons per person (in descriptive statistics and models) to avoid negative logarithms (this study transforms the original data). however, considering that the population of chinese provinces are much larger compared to european countries, there would be a pronounced difference in the total amount. in addition, according to zha et al. (2015), most regions in china mainly promote tourism economic growth at the expense of the ecological environment. when tourism development is at the cost of increased carbon dioxide emissions, the environment may be further polluted, which will affect the development of tourism. from the current results, a reasonable explanation is that the increase in carbon dioxide emissions has already caused pollution to the environment, thus negatively impacting the tourism industry. this also explains the two-way causality between tourism receipts and co2 emissions in the previous literature. the negative relationship between carbon dioxide emission and tourism receipt in china is supported by the finding of previous studies. sajjad et al. (2014) found that climatic factors and air pollution have a negative impact on tourism indicators in the form of deforestation and depletion of natural resources. the tourism industry has been systematically eroded due to severe climate changes and increasing air pollution. there are many causal relationships among climate factors, air pollution and tourism indicators. zhou et al. (2019) employed the gravity model to study the effect of air pollution on tourism in beijing. they found that air pollution has a significant negative impact on tourism. furthermore, the result reveals that the effect of air pollution on international tourism is more pronounced than domestic tourism. in other words, foreign tourists are more sensitive to air quality. however, liu et al. (2019) used random effects and fixed effects models to analyse the panel data of 17 provinces in china. they found the opposite result, that is, domestic tourists are more sensitive to air quality than foreign tourists. while in europe, greater carbon dioxide emission damage is likely to increase tourism receipt. this does not mean that there is a direct relationship between emission to tourism receipt, yet the rise of emission generates some activities that encourage more tourism receipt eventually. european countries, as many of them are categorized as developed countries already attract tourists to visit, both from developed and developing countries due to its economic development status. developed countries are identic with sophisticated technology, centre of businesses, and modern life where they can access anything easily. for instance, easy access to get public transportation, easy to find item that they want to have, and plenty of job opportunity. thus, an increase of carbon dioxide emission is likely representing the lively country where the emission is produced from its economic activities, such as emission from industry, vehicle, and household activity. although green products are highly promoted in many areas, the percentage of activity producing carbon dioxide emission is still the larger in comparison. thus, as time goes by, the percentage of carbon dioxide emission is likely to remain the same, and even increase eventually. this situation implies that an increase of carbon dioxide is rising the tourism receipt as well. cheng & nahar the determinants of international tourism: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 282 as for the determinants of population, the influence of population on international tourism is positive in china and europe. an increased of population by one percent can increase european countries' international tourism receipt by 4.047 percent, but it can only increase china's international tourism receipt by 0.929 percent. the reason of this phenomenon could be caused by the fact that china's population is large enough already, and the marginal effect is diminishing. this is in line with empirical analysis since more population brings more labour force. population with plenty of high qualified people, such as those who have a high education level would contribute better on improving tourism sector in country. thus, the tourism receipt might escalate afterwards. particularly for population in productive age might significantly help country to achieve a good economic in tourism sector. although bernini and cracolici (2015) argued that ageing population or elderly people population might negatively affect tourism demand, it is compensated by positive cohort effect whereas the elderly people are likely to be a tourist who travel more than younger generation. table 9 comparison of long run effects variables european countries china's provinces coefficients coefficients long run lnco2 2.026*** -0.495* lnpop 4.047*** 0.929*** lntran -0.642*** -0.893*** lnec -4.098*** 1.255*** lnto 1.811*** -0.022** ecm -0.295*** -0.471*** observations 450 300 note: *, **, *** represent statistical significance of coefficients of determinants at the 10 percent, 5 percent, and 1 percent levels respectively. the impact of transportation infrastructure is both negative in europe and china. it is surprising to notice that good transport infrastructure might be the cause of a declining tourism receipt. as know, transport infrastructure such as length road is symbolized as good infrastructure and stable economic (nahar et al., 2019). supply and demand of product in country could easily be fulfilled if there is an accessible transporting facility that distributes product to any needed places. however, it might be plausible result since transport infrastructure is positively related to the numbers of transportations being operated. when many people used various mode of transportation to reach some destinations, the vehicle might pollute the air and destroys environment. for country who promoted their natural resources as their main highlight of tourism attraction, they will suffer the most due to the indirect impact of advanced transport infrastructure on tourism. in the context of energy consumption, it is found that energy consumption has negative effect on tourism receipt in europe but not for china. china has positive relationship between energy consumption and tourism receipt. according to katircioglu (2014), energy consumption and tourism have a long term equilibrium relationship with carbon dioxide emission. when energy has been used for any activities including for tourism cheng & nahar the determinants of international tourism: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 283 development, it might attract people for coming and it generates more revenue. energy for transportation, catering, and accommodation are the examples of the energy usage’s demands. thus, the greater energy is used, the more tourist is coming as well as the tourism receipt. however, this condition might harm the energy sustainability. the energy used might be doubled than usual and it might threat the existence of energy proportion for the future (sajjad et al., 2014). therefore, it is plausible that some communities avoid visiting country that consume more energy, they choose to visit country that use less energy and focus on natural resources as the tourism attraction. meanwhile, the impact of trade openness on international tourism is positive in europe and negative in china. when the trade is open freely, it would benefit both host or destination country since they could fulfil their supplies and demands. in the context of tourism, attracting tourist by improving trade openness is not enough, government is advocated to design some strategy to attract visitor for coming to the country (azizurrohman et al., 2021). thus, visitor could stay longer for spending their holiday. as the result, the number of tourist arrival is increasing along with the receipt. conclusion this study collects china’s provincial panel data and european country panel data. then, it investigated the impacts of five determinants (carbon dioxide emissions per capita, population, transportation infrastructure, fossil energy consumption per capita, and trade openness) on international tourism by the same methods. in the panel ardl model, this paper examines the cross-sectional dependence. through the second-generation unit root test method, the current study obtained that all variables of the two panels are stationary at i(0) or i(1). furthermore, the results of pedroni and kao co-integration indicate that there is a significant co-integration relationship between variables. after obtaining the optimal lag, this paper ran the mg and pmg models of panel ardl and found that pmg is better through hausmann's test. therefore, we obtained the final estimation. the results of comparison between europe and china found that the population is positively correlated with international tourism receipts and transportation infrastructure. it is negatively affecting international tourism receipts in china and europe. carbon dioxide emission per capita has a positive impact on tourism in europe but a negative effect in china. fossil fuel energy consumption has a negative correlation with international tourism receipts in europe but positively correlated in china. trade openness has a positive effect in europe while has a negative impact on tourism in china, all coefficients in the long run are significant, and most are significant at the level of one percent. the paper finds that carbon dioxide emission per capita has a positive impact on tourism in europe but a negative effect in china. the reason might be caused by china’s promotions on tourism economic growth at the expense of the ecological environment (zha et al., 2015). although, in the long run the increasing emission will restrain the tourism since the total carbon dioxide emission per capita in west provinces of china is already higher than european countries. fossil energy consumption is negatively cheng & nahar the determinants of international tourism: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 284 correlated with international tourism receipts in europe but positively correlated in china. trade openness has a positive effect in europe while has a negative impact on tourism in china. all coefficients in the long run are significant, and most are significant at the level of one percent. the pmg model for individual countries or provinces provides the impacts of determinants in particular countries (or provinces). the limitation of this study is that for european countries, the receipts generated by tourism between these countries are also regarded as a part of the international tourism revenue. however, for chinese provinces, travel between these provinces is not considered international travel. for instance, the revenue generated by german tourists in spain is counted as an international tourism income; but the income generated by yunnan tourists in sichuan is not included as an international tourism income. therefore, the explained variables of the two databases, which is the international tourism industry income, has different contents. this weakens the comparison to a certain extent. in addition, the panel data is an unbalanced panel, the method which requires a strongly balanced panel in the analysis process cannot be used in this study. for example, the granger causality test cannot be applied, so the study can only determine the causality by long-run coefficients and ecm coefficients of the pmg method. this study is a significant reference for policymakers. according to the five determinants, european and chinese policymakers can adjust to promote tourism. for example, since the carbon dioxide emission coefficient is negative in china, china's western provinces should reduce carbon dioxide emissions to increase international tourism income; meanwhile europe should minimize fossil energy consumption because the energy consumption coefficient is negative and has a considerable value. the model results of this study can provide reference for creating policies or making decisions. appendix table a1 lsdv results for european countries and china’s provinces variables lntr variables lntr lnco2 -0.0516 lnco2 0.668* lnpop 1.003*** lnpop 3.889*** lntran -0.520* lntran 0.0755 lnec 0.296 lnec -2.575** lnto -0.00823 lnto 0.897*** guangxi 3.129*** belgium -1.962*** guizhou 1.613*** czech -2.232*** hainan 1.076*** demark 0.856** inner mongolia 1.932*** finland -1.147 ningxia -3.278*** france -6.960*** qinghai -1.332*** germany -7.902*** shaanxi 2.859*** greece -0.273 sichuan 2.658*** hungru -2.007*** xinjiang 1.417*** ireland 1.184 yunnan 3.837*** italy -5.644*** constant 2.502** netherland -2.992*** norway 0.253 poland -5.866*** cheng & nahar the determinants of international tourism: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 285 table a1 lsdv results for european countries and china’s provinces (cont’) variables lntr variables lntr portugal -0.746** spain -4.637*** sweden -2.765*** switzerland -0.637** constant -45.55** table a2 pmg model for individual china’s provinces variables ect lnco2 lnpop lntran lnec lnto constant long-run -0.495* 0.929*** -0.893*** 1.255*** -0.0221** gansu -0.164 -2.073 -1.319 0.396 4.316 -0.0488 0.507 guangxi -0.728*** -0.218 0.682 -0.342 -1.449* -0.00315 5.006*** guizhou -1.137*** -3.811** 0.825 1.154*** 0.733 0.00573 5.295*** hainan -0.0276 -0.149 0.967 -1.570* -0.142 -0.00497 0.2 innermongolia -0.466*** 1.808*** 2.164*** 0.131 -2.785*** 0.0108** 2.029*** ningxia -0.183 0.431 -1.668 -0.714 -1.204 0.0118 0.316* qinghai -0.416** 0.0196 0.881 1.549** -1.544 -0.00789 0.627** shaanxi -0.752*** 0.907 0.0308 0.376 -1.835 0.00652 4.537*** sichuan -0.667*** 0.539 -1.228 -0.0088 -0.907 -0.00077 4.232*** tibet xinjiang -0.526*** 1.436 0.402 0.588 0.358 -0.00899 2.130*** yunnan -0.114* 0.11 1.211*** 0.311 -0.566** -0.0065 0.824 table a3 pmg model for individual european countries variables ect lnco2 lnpop lntran lnec lnto constant long run 2.026*** 4.047*** -0.642*** -4.098*** 1.811*** austria -0.195*** 1.403* -7.919 0.525 -2.888 -0.412 -8.653** belgium -0.219 -0.0609 3.092 1.286** -1.136 0.239 -10.37 czech -0.369*** -0.196 4.418 -0.549 0.0707 0.025 -17.37** demark -0.398*** -0.852** -48.77*** -0.319* 2.259* -0.790*** -17.19** finland -0.483*** -0.359 -4.38 -0.0137 1.125 -0.0115 -22.30** france -0.548*** -1.178 -11 -0.39 1.358 -0.838** -28.04** germany -0.145 -0.565 -3.765 -0.0954 2.949 0.345 -7.558 greece -0.744*** -1.917** -17.51 -0.0694 5.543 -0.249 -33.10** hungru -0.660*** 1.475** -3.572 0.902*** -3.690* -0.548*** -30.43*** ireland -0.0269 0.7 4.327 0.00468 -2.921 -0.862 -1.19 italy -0.119 0.386 16.10*** -0.64 1.29 -0.0575 -5.86 netherland -0.189 0.434 -10.69 -0.147 -2.499 -0.501 -8.999 norway -0.106* -0.0529 18.80** -0.281 -0.183 0.201 -4.862 poland -0.156 1.214 5.296 0.00525 -7.689 0.729 -7.879 portugal -0.339*** -0.18 -15.35*** 0.0335 0.298 0.246 -15.09** spain -0.326*** -0.479 0.715 1.585* 1.42 0.687** -15.88** sweden -0.169 0.348 -7.659 0.0194 0.15 0.464 -7.951 switzerland -0.122 -0.0111 13.94** -0.031 -0.521 0.117 -5.62 references amin, s. 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(2019). air pollution and tourism demand: a case study of beijing, china. international journal of tourism research, 21(6), 747–757. https://doi.org/10.1002/jtr.2301 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.04.164 https://doi.org/10.1002/jtr.2301 convert jpg to pdf online convert-jpg-to-pdf.net jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 1, april 2018, hlm. 41-49 doi: 10.18196/jesp.19.1.3861 the influence of financial performances on indonesia’s state-owned banks towards share returns in 2013-2016 i wayan sunarya stmik stikom indonesia, program study teknik informatika jl. tukad pakerisan no. 97, panjer, denpasar bali 80225 abstract: the performance of financial statements shows the level of productivity in a company. specific to banking sector, the performance of its financial statements can be analyzed from econo mic value added (eva) and market value added (mva). this study analyzes mva and eva are of state-owned banks consisting of bank tabungan negara (btn), bank negara indonesia (bni), bank mandiri and bank rakyat indonesia (bri). the results convey that indonesia’s state-owned banks in giving share return to theirs shareholders are not influenced by economic value added (eva) and market value added (mva). there is an evidence that, eva and mva do not give any effect to share return because in the state owned bank in indonesia, the investors have been very confident about the performance of banks in indonesia so that without seeing the performance of the f inancial statements of investors have been very convinced from the fundamental point that the indonesia state owned banks can bring benefits to investors key words: state-owned bank, share return, economic value added, market value added jel classification: f65, g35, d12, d47 introduction in general, financial statement analysis uses several methods in analyzing the companies’ financial statements. the financial statement analysis will be used by the management to achieve operational decisions. one of the business entities that use the financial statement analysis is banking sector. bank is a business entity that aims to receive funds from the public either in the form of savings deposits, deposits and so forth. in addition, banks have to extend credit to the entrepreneurs and to the community business expansion. in indonesia, there are various banks from stateowned banks to private banks. states-owned banks in indonesia include bank tabungan negara, bank negara indonesia, bank mandiri and bank rayat indonesia. while, private banks in indonesia include, bank central asia, bank danamon, and bank permata. the scope of this research is the state-owned banks. a state bank runs its business by focusing on the stability of its business reflected from its financial statements. for go public’s banks or have listed in the indonesia stock exchange, the financial statements can be accessed by investors in the capital market whether the bank is wellperformed or not. various kinds of financial ratios are usually presented by the banks to investors so that transparency happens. one of the approaches used in analyzing stocks is to analyze its share return. not only share return, but also fixed assets turnover (fato), return on investment (roi), debt to equity ratio (der), price to book value (pbv), total assets turnover (tato) economic value added (eva), market values added (mva). this research aims to examine on how significance the effect of eva and mva on share return. since there is no study related to the effect of eva and mva on share return of state-owned 42 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 1, april 2018: 41-49 banks particularly in indonesia, thus this research will be carried out to fill this gap. research method there are some approaches used in analyzing stocks such as share return, fixed assets turnover (fato), return on investment (roi), debt to equity ratio (der), price to book value (pbv), total assets turnover (tato) economic value added (eva), and market values added (mva). this research aims to examine the effect of variables that indicate stocks performance on share return. therefore research framework is formulated as follow, figure 1. research framework source: author estimation dependent variable (shares return) share return is the result of profit or often called capital gains or losses are often called the capital loss that will be obtained by investors in a period. according to huda et al. (2015: 178), the formula used in seeking this share return is: pa = i.t i.t-1 i.t-1 (p -p ) p x 100% in which: pit = stock price i in quarter t pit-1 = stock price in quarter t-1 independent variables 1. calculation of economic value added (eva) according to irianti y.n., et.al (2014:3) in moeljadi (2006:75) states economic value added is a value added to the shareholders by management for a certain year. eva formula by huda et al. (2015:179) in bennett stewart iii (1991 that is : eva = nopat – coc in which: nopat = net profit + interest expense – tax coc = invested capital x wacc 2. calculation of market value added (mva) according to zulvina (2010:137) in young and o’byrne (2001) mva is the value earned by shareholders, or in other words mva is a wealth that a company can create for shareholders. mva also illustrates the magnitude of added value that has been capitalized and also raises the value of the company in the future. the way in finding these market values added is to reduce the value of equity market values with equity book value. for calculating market value added using formula by huda, et.al (2015:179) in stewart (1996) is a "cash difference either debt or equity the investors have in the company and contributes to the expected cash value" and is formulated as follows: mva = equity market value equity book value in which: share return eva fato roi der mva tato pbv the influence of financial performances on indonesia’s state-owned banks… (i wayan sunarya) 43 emv = number of shares x price/shares ebv = number of shares x nominal value/shares 3. fixed assets turnover (fato) according to gunawan and wahyuni (2013:66) in munawir (2004: 240), fixed assets turnover is the ratio between sales and fixed assets. fixed assets turnover or often abbreviated with fato is used to analyze the effectiveness of the use of funds contained in the bank's fixed assets in generating sales. from the fato results that have been analyzed, if the result is higher the ratio from year to year means the more effective use of fixed assets. formula for calculating fato that is: fato = sales fixed assets x 100% 4. return on investment (roi) according to topowijono, et al. (2015:4) in hanafi (2012:157) states return on investment is a measure of the ability of a company in generating net profits using the total assets owned company. given this ratio, it will be known about the condition of net profit after bank tax by using all assets owned by the bank itself. formula for calculating roi that is: roi = earning after tax total assets x 100% 5. debt to equity ratio (der) according to ramdhani (2013: 30) in kasmir (2008) states debt to equity ratio (der) is the ratio used to assess debt with equity. for a business entity such as banking, the level of der above 100% can be said to be normal, because the bank manages funds from customers in its operational activities. for the banking world, capital managed from customers is used for the distribution of credit to the community, so that from the credit provided to generate interest on the loan which will be used as a source of income by the bank. in search of der analysis using the formula total debt owned by bank divided by total equity owned by bank. formula for calculating der that is: der = total debts total equity x 100% 6. price to book value (pbv) according to silalahi (2014:6) states price to book value describes how much the market appreciates the value of a company's stock book. this is because the higher the ratio of price to book value of a bank then the higher returns also owned stock. formula for calculating pbv that is: pbv = share price book value x 100% 7. total assets turnover (tato) according to setiawan (2015:5) in moeldjadi (2008:50) states total asset turnover shows the ability of total assets to spin for a year to generate sales that can be calculated by dividing net sales by total assets. formula for calculating tato that is: tato = sales total assets x 100% regression analysis based on research huda et.al (2015:179) the analysis model used for analysis research eva and mva is using multiple regression analysis with several variables consisting of fato (x1), roi (x2), der (x3), tato (x4), pbv (x5), eva (x6), dan mva (x7) and share return (y). 1. evait = a0 + a1 x1it + a2 x2it + a3 x3it + u1it 2. mvait = b0 + b1 x4it + b2 x5it + u2it 3. retit = c0 + c1 x6it + c2 x7it + u3it in which: 44 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 1, april 2018: 41-49 (y) = share return (%) (x1) = fixed asset turnover (%) (x2) = return on investment (%) (x3) = debt equity ratio (%) (x4) = total asset turnover (%) (x5) = price to book value (%) (x6) = economic value added (%) (x7) = market value added (%) a, b, c = coefficient of regression of each variable u = disturbance error i = bank data observed t = time series data showing the length of time taken results and discussion 1. economic value added (eva) the data of indonesia state-owned banks on economic value added (eva) from 2013 to 2016 are as follows: table 1. analysis on eva of indonesia state-owned bank from 2013-2016 no. name of bank economic value added/eva (%) 2013 2014 2015 2016 1. bank tabungan negara 19.39 20.60 26.66 33.36 2. bank negara indonesia 21.44 26.51 23.21 28.83 3. bank mandiri 23.65 27.13 28.24 20.98 4. bank rakyat indonesia 23.74 23.38 25.07 27.81 source: financial report of bank btn, bni, mandiri, bri from 2013-2016 (data processed) 2. market values added (mva) the market value added data from indonesian government-owned banks are as follows: table 2. analysis on mva of indonesia state owned banks from 2013-2016 no. name of bank market value added/mva (%) 2013 2014 2015 2016 1. bank tabungan negara 3.98 20.34 19.65 56.03 2. bank negara indonesia 8.63 17.31 28.55 45.51 3. bank mandiri 16.29 14.32 26.11 43.28 4. bank rakyat indonesia 12.22 16.72 28.44 42.62 source: financial report of bank btn, bni, mandiri, bri from 2013-2016 (data processed) 3. share return the data of share return owned by the indonesia state owned banks are as follows: table 3. analysis on share return of indonesia goverment bank from 2013-2016 no. name of bank share return (%) 2013 2014 2015 2016 1. bank tabungan negara 5.61 -2.08 -1.84 -1.66 2. bank negara indonesia 0.50 -2.70 2.60 -0.78 3. bank mandiri 1.66 -1.73 1.77 -1.35 4. bank rakyat indonesia 1.35 -2.68 0.75 -0.17 source: indonesia stock exchange (idx) bank btn, bni, mandiri, bri (data processed) the influence of financial performances on indonesia’s state-owned banks… (i wayan sunarya) 45 4. fixed assets turnover (fato) the data on fixed assets turnover (fato) from indonesian government banks from 2013-2016 are as follows: table 4. analysis on fato of indonesia state-owned bank from 2013-2016 no. name of bank fixed assets turnover/fato (%) 2013 2014 2015 2016 1. bank tabungan negara 3.34 3.48 3.21 1.94 2. bank negara indonesia 4.07 4.84 1.66 1.88 3. bank mandiri 2.28 2.41 2.57 1.39 4. bank rakyat indonesia 4.52 4.59 5.21 2.28 source: financial report of bank btn, bni, mandiri, bri from 2013-2016 (data processed) 5. return on investment (roi) the data on return on investment from banks owned by the government of indonesia are as follows: table 5. analysis on roi of indonesia state-owned banks from 2013-2016 no. name of bank return on investment /roi (%) 2013 2014 2015 2016 1. bank tabungan negara 1.10 0.77 1.08 1.22 2. bank negara indonesia 2.34 2.59 1.78 1.88 3. bank mandiri 2.48 2.32 2.23 1.41 4. bank rakyat indonesia 3.41 3.02 2.89 2.61 source: financial report of bank btn, bni, mandiri, bri from 20132016 (data processed) 6. debt to equity ratio (der) the data debt to equity ratio (der) bank owned by the government of indonesia year 2013-2016 are as follows: table 6. analysis on der of indonesia state-owned bank from 2013-2016 no. name of bank debt to equity ratio/der (%) 2013 2014 2015 2016 1. bank tabungan negara 1.164 1.084 1.140 1.020 2. bank negara indonesia 711 559 526 552 3. bank mandiri 672 665 617 538 4. bank rakyat indonesia 689 721 676 584 source: financial report of bank btn, bni, mandiri, bri from 2013-2016 (data processed) 46 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 1, april 2018: 41-49 7. price to book value (pbv) the pbv data of indonesia state-owned banks from 2013-2016 that is: table 7. analysis on pbv of indonesia state-owned bank from 2013-2016 no. name of bank price to book value/pbv (%) 2013 2014 2015 2016 1. bank tabungan negara 89.42 104.32 98.87 96.32 2. bank negara indonesia 154.48 186.42 118.64 115.44 3. bank mandiri 206.29 239.80 180.63 176.10 4. bank rakyat indonesia 225.46 294.05 249.14 196.18 source: financial report of bank btn, bni, mandiri, bri from 2013-2016 (data processed) 8. total assets turnover (tato) the data total asset turnover (tato) from indonesia state-owned banks from 2013-2016 are as follows: table 8. analysis tato of indonesia goverment bank from 2013-2016 no. name of bank total assets turnover/tato (%) 2013 2014 2015 2016 1. bank tabungan negara 8.22 8.86 8.71 8.00 2. bank negara indonesia 6.84 8.01 7.25 7.26 3. bank mandiri 6.85 7.33 7.86 7.39 4. bank rakyat indonesia 9.50 9.37 9.73 9.44 source: financial report of bank btn, bni, mandiri, bri from 2013-2016 (data processed) 9. effect of fato, roi and der on eva from data fato (table 4), roi (table 5), der (table 6) can be calculate for to know analysis regression between fato, roi and der to eva (table 1) in effect performance financial report in indonesia goverment bank from 2013 until 2016. the result of fato effect analysis, roi and der to eva by using eviews program as follows: table 9. result analysis on the effect of fato, roi and der on eva in indonesia goverment bank from 2013-2016 variable coefficient std. error t-statistic prob. c 38.16516 11.59494 3.291535 0.0094 fato? -1.512281 1.192778 -1.267864 0.2367 roi? 8.988540 3.391136 2.650598 0.0265 der? -0.036372 0.018619 -1.953484 0.0825 r-squared 0.539014 mean dependent var 25.00000 adjusted r-squared 0.231689 s.d. dependent var 3.663513 s.e. of regression 3.211191 akaike info criterion 5.470797 sum squared resid 92.80575 schwarz criterion 5.808804 log likelihood -36.76638 hannan-quinn criterion 5.488106 f-statistic 1.753892 durbin-watson stat 1.914772 prob(f-statistic) 0.215274 source: table 1, 4, 5, 6 (data processed) the influence of financial performances on indonesia’s state-owned banks… (i wayan sunarya) 47 from the results of statistical analysis in table 9 can be explained that affecting economic value added (eva) for state-owned banks in indonesia from 2013-2016 is the level of return on investment (roi) because it has a probability of less than 5%, while the level of correlation between fato, roi, and der to eva by 54% while the remaining 46% is influenced by other factors such as inflation rate and so forth. the results of analysis between banking and mining have different results. this is not in line with research huda et al. (2015) states that affect eva is der because it is a concern for investors in determining investment decisions. 10. effect of pbv and tato on mva from data pbv (table 7), tato (table 8) and mva (table 2) can be calculate for to know analysis regression between pbv and tato to mva in performance effect financial report in indonesia goverment bank from 2013 until 2016. the result of fato, roi and der to eva effect analysis by using eviews program as follows: table 10. result analysis on the effect of pbv and tato on mva in indonesia state-owned bank from 2013-2016 variable coefficient std. error t-statistic prob. c 72.55126 97.36602 0.745139 0.4733 pbv? -0.269867 0.149835 -1.801093 0.1019 tato? -0.181163 11.84958 -0.015289 0.9881 r-squared 0.247578 mean dependent var 25.00000 adjusted r-squared -0.128634 s.d. dependent var 14.82284 s.e. of regression 15.74737 akaike info criterion 8.631220 sum squared resid 2479.795 schwarz criterion 8.920940 log likelihood -63.04976 hannan-quinn criter. 8.646056 f-statistic 0.658082 durbin-watson stat 1.566489 prob(f-statistic) 0.663128 source: table 2, 7, 8 (data processed) from the results of the statistical analysis in table 10, it can be explained that pbv and tato does not affect the value added (mva) maket for state-owned banks in indonesia from 2013-2016, it is seen that the probability for pbv and tato is above 5%, where the level of pbv correlation and tato to mva by 25%, while the remaining 75% is influenced by factors other than pbv and tato.this is not in line with the research of ghulam nurul huda, et.al (2015) states that affecting the mva is pbv and tato because becoming mva will show the level of feasibility of a stock in the capital market. 11. effect of eva and mva on share return from data eva (table 1), mva (table 2) and share return (table 3) can be calculate for to know analysis regression between eva and mva to share return in performance effect financial report in indonesia goverment bank from 2013 until 2016. the result of eva and mva to share return effect analysis by using eviews program as follows: 48 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 1, april 2018: 41-49 table 11. result analysis on the effect of eva and mva on share return in indonesia state-owned banks from 2013-2016 variable coefficient std. error t-statistic prob. c 4.741768 5.044937 0.939906 0.3694 eva? -0.169492 0.230534 -0.735214 0.4791 mva? -0.022073 0.057001 -0.387246 0.7067 r-squared 0.147299 mean dependent var -0.047363 adjusted r-squared -0.279052 s.d. dependent var 2.266791 s.e. of regression 2.563632 akaike info criterion 5.000723 sum squared resid 65.72208 schwarz criterion 5.290444 log likelihood -34.00579 hannan-quinn criter. 5.015559 f-statistic 0.345487 durbin-watson stat 3.024800 prob(f-statistic) 0.873827 source: table 1, 2, 3 (data processed) from the results of statistical analysis in table 11, it can be explained that eva and mva does not affect share return for state-owned banks in indonesia from 2013-2016, it is seen that the probability for eva and mva is above 5%, where the eva and mva correlation rate to share return of 15%, while the remaining 85% is influenced by factors other than eva and mva. this is not in line with the research of huda et.al (2015) states that affecting the eva and mva is affeting share of return. conclusion after the discussion that has been explained then can be made a conclusion about the influence of eva and mva in giving share return in the indonesia state-owned banks, there is an evidence that, eva and mva do not give any effect to share return because in the banking world, particularly state-owned bank in indonesia, the investors have been very confident about the performance of banks in indonesia so that without seeing the performance of the financial statements of investors have been very convinced from the fundamental point that the indonesia state-owned banks, therefore this situation can bring benefits to investors. recommendation 1. for bank btn, bni, mandiri and bri recommendations that can be given to indonesian state owned banks consisting of bank btn, bni, mandiri and bri are to maintain the banking performance to be trusted by the customers by providing good service and quality of banking products in accordance with the wishes of the community. 2. for investors recommendations that can be given to the retail investors is choosing shares of state owned bank such as bank btn, bni, mandiri and bri have no risk in investing, because it is proven shares of indonesia state-owned bank gives investment returns that continue to grow from year to year because of an increase in assets and profits earned by indonesian state-owned banks. references bank tabungan negara. 2017. laporan tahunan bank tabungan negara tahun 2016. http://www.btn.co.id. [8 september 2017] bank negara indonesia. 2017. laporan tahunan bank negara indonesia tahun 2016. the influence of financial performances on indonesia’s state-owned banks… (i wayan sunarya) 49 http://www.bni.co.id. [10 september 2017] bank mandiri. 2017. laporan tahunan bank mandiri tahun 2016. http://www.bankmandiri.co.id. [13 september 2017] bank rakyat indonesia. 2017. laporan tahunan bank rakyat indonesia tahun 2016. http://www.ir-bri.com. [15 september 2017] gunawan, a. dan wahyuni, s. f. 2013. pengaruh rasio keuangan terhadap pertumbuhan laba pada perusahaan perdagangan di indonesia. jurnal manajemen & bisnis 13(1):63-84. huda, g. n., sinaga, b. m., dan andati, t. 2015. the influence of corporate financial performance on share return. indonesian journal of business and entrepreneurship 1(3):177-185. ningtias, i. y., saifi, m. dan husaini, a. 2014. analisis perbandingan antara rasio keuangan dan metode economic value added (eva) sebagai pengukur kinerja keuangan perusahaan: studi kasus pada pt. indofoof sukses makmur, tbk dan anak perusahaan yang terdaftar di bursa efek indonesia periode tahun 2010-2012. jurnal administrasi bisnis 9(2):1-8. ramdhani, r. 2013. pengaruh return on assets dan debt to equity ratio terhadap harga saham pada institusi finansial di bursa efek indonesia. journal the winner 14(1):29-41. saraswati, n. m. d. p., topowijono dan yaningwati, f. 2015. analisis du pont system sebagai salah satu alat mengukur kinerja keuangan perusahaan: studi pada perusahaan rokok yang listing di bursa efek indonesia tahun 2011-2013. jurnal administrasi bisnis 23(1):1-9 setiawan, e. 2015. pengaruh current ratio, inventory turnover, debt to equity ratio, total asset turnover, sales dan firm size terhadap roa pada perusahaan food and beverage yang terdaftar di bursa efek indonesia (bei) periode 2010-2013 [skripsi]. riau: universitas maritim raja ali haji, fakultas ekonomi, jurusan akuntansi silalahi, s. p. 2014. pengaruh corporate social repsonsibility (csr) disclosure, beta dan price to book value (pbv) terhadap earnings response coefficient (erc) : studi empiris pada perusahaan manufaktur yang terdaftar di bursa efek indonesia. jurnal ekonomi 22(1):1-14 zulvina, r. a. 2010. analisis perbandingan kinerja keuangan sebelum dan sesudah merger dengan menggunakan metode economic value added (eva) dan market value added (mva) pada pt. unilever indonesia tbk. jurnal akuntansi (akrual) 1(2):137-157 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume, 18 nomor 1, april 2017, hlm. 25-33 doi: 10.18196/jesp.18.1.3778 analisis peningkatkan pendapatan petani keramba jaring apung dengan diversifikasi spesies ikan budidaya di waduk cirata abel gandhy surya university, grand serpong mall lt. 1 unit f8 & f9, jl. m.h. thamrin km 2.7, kota tangerang, indonesia e-mail korespondensi: abel.gandhy@surya.ac.id naskah diterima: desember 2016; disetujui: april 2017 abstract: the aim of this research is to analyze the impact of diversification of fish cultivation in floating cage at cirata reservoir. indicator of feasibility study based on net present value (npv), internal rate of return (irr), pay back period (pp) and net b/c. the research showed that diversification activities increases npv rp 157, 420, 576, raise irr for 38%, accelerate the payback period for 3 months and increases the net b/c from 2.06 to 3,,8. therefore, diversification type of fish cultivation is recomended to apply because will increasing farmer income. keywords: financial analysis, internal rate of return (irr), diversification activities jel classification: g17, q00 abstrak: tujuan dilakukannya penelitian ini adalah untuk menganalisis pengaruh diversifikasi jenis ikan yang dibudidayakan pada keramba jaring apung di waduk cirata. indikator analisis finansial yang digunakan adalah net present value (npv), internal rate of return (irr), payback period (pp) dan net benefit cost ratio (net b/c). hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa kegiatan diversikasi jenis ikan meningkatkan npv sebesar rp 157.420.576, meningkatkan internal rate of return (irr) sebesar 38%, mempercepat payback period selama 3 bulan serta meningkatkan nilai net b/c dari 2,06 menjadi 3,28. sehingga kegiatan diversifikasi jenis ikan akan meningkatkan pendapat petani dan layak untuk dilakukan. kata kunci : analisis finansial, internal rate of return (irr), aktifitas diversifikasi klasifikasi jel: g17, q00 mailto:abel.gandhy@surya.ac.id 26 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 1, april 2017: 25-33 pendahuluan waduk cirata merupakan salah satu sentra budidaya perikanan air tawar yang terletak di jawa barat. waduk cirata terbentuk dari adanya genangan air seluas 62 akibat pembangunan waduk yang membendung sungai citarum. genangan waduk tersebut tersebar di tiga kabupaten, yaitu kabupaten cianjur, kabupaten purwakarta, dan kabupaten bandung. genangan air terluas terdapat di kabupaten cianjur dengan luas 29.603.299 (aksomo, 2007). metode budidaya perikanan yang digunakan di waduk cirata adalah budidaya perikanan keramba jaring apung (kja). pada tahun 2012, jawa barat mampu memproduksi 195.312 ton ikan yang menggunakan metode jaring apung (bkpm, 2014). aktivitas budidaya perikanan sistem keramba jaring apung memiliki tujuan berupa meningkatkan produksi untuk mendapatkan keuntungan maksimum. pencapaian tujuan produksi didukung oleh kemampuan pembudidaya dalam mengelola input tetap berupa investasi peralatan dan sewa lahan, serta input variabel berupa benih, pakan, perawatan dan lainnya yang merupakan faktor penting untuk dapat mencapai tujuan. jenis ikan yang umum digunakan pada keramba jaring apung di waduk cirata adalah ikan nila dan ikan mas. pola budidaya yang digunakan adalah intensif, dimana ikan ditebar dengan kepadatan yang tinggi serta penggunaan pakan komersial selama proses pembesaran (ardi, 2013). dengan pola budidaya intensif, petani dapat memanen ikan dalam waktu yang lebih cepat dengan kualitas yang baik. salah satu cara untuk meningkatkan keuntungan petani keramba jaring apung adalah dengan melakukan diversifikasi ikan budidaya yang memiliki nilai ekonomi yang lebih tinggi serta dapat tumbuh dengan baik di lingkungan waduk cirata. jenis ikan yang dapat memenuhi kriteria diatas dan dapat dibudidayakan di waduk cirata adalah ikan hias jenis koi serta ikan bawal. dalam penelitian ini akan dilihat bagaimana analisis finansial dari praktek diversifikasi ikan yang dibudidayakan ketika diterapkan di keramba jaring apung waduk cirata. analisis finansial merupakan suatu analisis yang membandingkan antara biaya dan manfaat apakah suatu kegiatan bisnis menguntungkan (husnan, 2003). analisis finansial yang dilakukan pada penelitian ini adalah net present value (npv), internal rate of return (irr), payback period (pp), dan break even point (bep). pada akhirnya hasil analisis yang didapat diharapkan dapat berguna bagi pengambil keputusan dalam menyusun perencanaan ke depannya. metode penelitian lokasi dan waktu penelitian penelitian dilakukan di waduk cirata, desa mande, kabupaten cianjur, jawa barat pada tanggal 23 februari 2015 sampai dengan 25 mei 2015. metode pengumpulan data metode pengumpulan data dilakukan dengan cara observasi (pengamatan langsung), wawancara, dan studi pustaka. observasi merupakan pengamatan langsung yang dilakukan ditempat penelitian. observasi dilakukan di desa mande waduk cirata, kabupaten cianjur, provinsi jawa barat. wawancara merupakan tanya jawab yang dilakukan oleh pewawancara dan narasumber. studi pustaka dilakukan dengan mengambil data dari jurnal, penelitian terdahulu, dan dari internet. metode analisis data pada penelitian ini akan dianalisis pengaruh dari penerapan diversifikasi spesies ikan pada keramba jaring apung. parameter yang akan dilihat adalah perubahan penerimaan yang akan didapatkan oleh petani analisis peningkatkan pendapatan petani keramba jaring …(abel gandhy) 27 dengan memperhatikan nilai waktu dari uang yang diperoleh. sehingga metode analisis data yang digunakan adalah net present value (npv), internal rate of return (irr), dan net benefit cost ratio (net b/c) dan payback period (pp). net present value (npv) npv adalah nilai sekarang dari keuntungan bersih (manfaat neto tambahan) yang akan diperoleh pada masa mendatang, merupakan selisih antara nilai sekarang arus manfaat dikurangi dengan nilai sekarang arus biaya (gittinger, 1986). jika nilai npv positif, berarti usaha layak untuk dilakukan, jika bernilai nol berarti tidak untung dan tidak rugi, sedangkan jika bernilai negatif maka usaha tidak layak untuk dilakukan. rumus yang digunakan untuk analisis npv yaitu, npv = ∑ dimana : tr = penerimaan dalam satu periode produksi tc = biaya yang dikeluarkan dalam satu periode priode produksi i = tingkat suku bunga t = umur proyek internal rate of return (irr) internal rate of return (irr) digunakan untuk mencari tingkat bunga yang menyamakan nilai sekarang dari arus kas yang diharapkan dimasa yang akan datang, atau penerimaan kas, dengan mengeluarkan investasi awal (umar, 2005). irr merupakan nilai yang menyebabkan nilai npv proyek sama dengan 0 (sylvia, 2013). rumus yang digunakan yaitu, keterangan: jika irr = tingkat discount rate maka usaha tidak untung dan tidak rugi. jika irr > tingkat discount rate maka usaha layak untuk dijalankan. jika irr < tingkat discount maka usaha tidak layak untuk dijalankan. payback period (pp) payback period adalah jangka waktu yang diperlukan suatu perusahaan untuk mengembalikan modal investasinya dari cash flow (gittinger,1986). semakin cepat dana investasi dapat diperoleh kembali, maka semakin kecil resiko yang ditanggung oleh perusahaan. tujuan pp yaitu untuk menghitung berapa jangka waktu yang dibutuhkan agar modal yang diinvestasikan dapat dikembalikan untuk membiayai usaha. rumus yang digunakan untuk mencari payback period yaitu: payback period = dimana, i = biaya investasi n = manfaat bersih yang dapat diperoleh setiap tahunnya. net benefit cost ratio (net b/c) net benefit ratio merupakan nilai perbandingan antara present value yang positif dengan present value yang negatif (soekarwati, 1995). net b/c ratio = σpv net benefit yang positif σpv net benefit yang negatif keterangan: jika net b/c > 1, maka kegiatan usaha layak dilakukan jika net b/c < 1, maka kegiatan usaha tidak layak dilakukan. hasil dan pembahasan biaya investasi budidaya ikan pada keramba jaring apung (kja) investasi adalah biaya awal yang dikeluarkan pada saat awal melakukan suatu 28 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 1, april 2017: 25-33 usaha (ashari, 2011). periode proyek yang digunakan adalah 5 tahun, karena komponen investasi yang digunakan akan habis masa pakainya setelah 5 tahun. rumah digunakan untuk beristirahat dan saung digunakan untuk tempat berteduh saat melakukan kontrol lapangan serta pemberian pakan ikan. sinar matahari yang merata sepanjang tahun menyebabkan tenaga surya digunakan untuk sumber penghasil tenaga listrik. biaya investasi yang dikeluarkan oleh petani ikan keramba jaring apung yang berada di desa mande propinsi jawa barat diperlihatkan pada tabel berikut: tabel 1. biaya investasi keramba jaring apung (kja) ukuran 7x7 sebanyak 32 unit komponen kuantitas harga satuan jumlah rumah 1 40.000.000 40.000.000 saung 9 3.000.000 27.000.000 listrik (genset) 2 2.500.000 5.000.000 modul tenaga surya 2 3.000.000 6.000.000 jaring (kg) 512 100.000 51.200.000 total investasi 129.200.000 sumber : data primer (diolah tahun 2015) biaya tetap biaya tetap adalah komponen biaya produsi yang nilainya tidak dipengaruhi oleh besar kecilnya produksi dan penggunaannya tidak habis dalam satu masa produksi (ashari, 2011). biaya tetap merupakan biaya yang tetap dikeluarkan baik saat melakukan produksi ataupun tidak. total karyawan yang dipekerjakan adalah 4 orang. sewa lahan per bulan adalah rp 200.000 yang disetorkan kepada badan pengelola waduk cirata (bpwc). total drum yang digunakan adalah 320 unit, dengan biaya penyusutan drum per bulan rp 170.000. perawatan jaring dilakukan untuk menjamin agar jaring tetap berfungsi baik sehingga dapat mencegah ikan yang hilang karena jaring yang rusak. biaya tetap yang dikeluarkan oleh pemilik kja adalah seperti yang diperlihatkan pada tabel berikut. tabel 2. biaya tetap keramba jaring apung (kja) ukuran 7x7 sebanyak 32 unit komponen kuantitas biaya per bulan jumlah per tahun gaji 4 1.500.000 72.000.000 sewa lahan 1 200.000 2.400.000 penyusutan drum 320 170.000 54.400.000 perawatan jaring 8 50.000 4.800.000 total biaya tetap 133.600.000 sumber : data primer (diolah tahun 2015) biaya variabel biaya variabel adalah biaya yang nilainya berubah seiring dengan bertambah atau berkurangnya produksi. setiap periode produksi, bibit ikan mas dan ikan nila yang dibutuhkan adalah 5 kg per keramba ukuran 7x7. dalam 1 tahun produksi ikan mas dilakukan sebanyak 3 kali dan untuk ikan nila sebanyak 2 kali. total bibit ikan mas dan ikan nila yang dibutuhkan pada 32 keramba untuk setiap periode produksi adalah 160 kg. ikan mas hidup dibagian permukaan dari air, sedangkan ikan nila hidup dibagian dasar dari keramba, sehingga pakan yang tidak terkonsumsi oleh ikan mas akan dimakan oleh ikan nila. biaya variabel terbesar adalah untuk pakan ikan mas dan nila yaitu sebesar rp 387.600.000 atau lebih dari 95% total biaya analisis peningkatkan pendapatan petani keramba jaring …(abel gandhy) 29 variabel. oleh karena itu keuntungan yang diterima oleh petani sangat dipengaruhi oleh fluktuasi harga pakan. biaya variabel yang dikeluarkan oleh pembudidaya ikan mas dan ikan nila di kja waduk cirata selama satu tahun ditunjukkan pada tabel berikut: tabel 3. biaya variabel keramba jaring apung (kja) ukuran 7x7 sebanyak 32 unit komponen kuantitas harga satuan jumlah bibit ikan nila 320 17.000 5.440.000 bibit ikan mas 480 26.500 12.720.000 pakan mas dan nila 51.000 7.600 387.600.000 total biaya variabel 405.760.000 sumber : data primer (diolah tahun 2015) arus pendapatan pendapatan adalah jumlah hasil yang diperoleh petani dari penjualan hasil produksi (mahsaida dkk, 2012). setiap periode produksi rata-rata survival rate yang terjadi pada ikan mas dan nila adalah adalah 85%. tingkat food convertion ratio ikan mas adalah 0,5 dan ikan nila adalah 0,2 dari total pakan yang diberikan. total ikan mas yang dihasilkan untuk setiap periode produksi (4 bulan) adalah 250 kg per keramba, sehingga total ikan mas yang dihasilkan dalam 1 periode produksi adalah 8 ton. total ikan nila yang dihasilkan setiap periode produksi (6 bulan) adalah 160 kg per keramba ukuran 7 x 7 meter. harga ikan yang digunakan adalah harga rata-rata ikan mas dan nila pada periode februari 2014 hingga februari 2015. penerimaan yang diperoleh dari ikan mas adalah rp 456.000.000 atau 77% dari total penerimaan petani. hal ini merupakan fakta bahwa ikan mas merupakan komoditas utama penyumbang penghasilan bagi petani. total penerimaan yang diperoleh dari ikan mas adalah rp 134.400.000. pendapatan usaha yang diterima oleh petani keramba jaring apung selama 1 tahun ditunjukkan oleh tabel berikut. tabel 4. total pendapatan keramba jaring apung (kja) ukuran 7x7 sebanyak 32 unit keterangan kuantitas harga satuan jumlah ikan mas (kg) 24.000 19.000 456.000.000 ikan nila (kg) 11.200 12.000 134.400.000 total penerimaan 590.400.000 sumber : data primer (diolah tahun 2015) net present value (npv) tingkat discount rate yang digunakan adalah sebesar 12% yang didapat dari rata-rata suku bunga pinjaman pada bank di indonesia. npv yang didapatkan selama lima tahun proses produksi dijelaskan pada tabel dibawah ini. tabel 5. net present value (npv) budidaya ikan mas dan nila tahun kepenerimaan (bt) biaya (ct) nilai npv 0 -129.200.000 -129.200.000 -129.200.000 1 590.400.000 516.560.000 73.840.000 65.928.571 2 590.400.000 516.560.000 73.840.000 58.864.796 3 590.400.000 516.560.000 516.560.000 52.557.853 4 590.400.000 516.560.000 516.560.000 46.926.655 5 590.400.000 516.560.000 516.560.000 41.898.799 nilai npv proyek 136.976.675 sumber : data primer (diolah tahun 2015) 30 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 1, april 2017: 25-33 net present value merupakan nilai sekarang dari uang dengan tingkat diskonto tertentu, yang akan diterima oleh pelaku usaha jika menjalakan kegiatan bisnis. pada tahun ke-0 nilai npv negatif dikarenakan pelaku usaha harus mengeluarkan uang untuk kegiatan investasi tanpa memperoleh penghasilan. hal ini dikarenakan kegiatan produksi belum berjalan. pada tahun ke-1 hingga tahun ke-5 nilai npv positif dikarenakan kegiatan budidaya telah berjalan sehingga petani memperoleh penerimaan dari penjualan ikan hasil panen. berdasarkan tabel diatas, npv yang didapatkan sebesar rp 136.976.675. artinya nilai sekarang dari pendapatan selama 5 tahun akan memperoleh keuntungan sebesar rp 136.976.675 pada tingkat suku bungan 12%. nilai positif artinya usaha budidaya ikan mas dan nila pada keramba jaring apung layak untuk dilakukan. internal rate of return internal rate of return adalah tingkat discount rate yang menghasilkan npv proyek usaha budidaya ikan pada keramba jaring apung menjadi sama dengan 0. irr didapatkan dengan metode trial and error sampai didapatkan nilai npv yang negaif. langkah selanjutnya adalah melakukan interpolasi untuk mendapatkan nilai yang diinginkan. tabel dibawah ini menjelaskan proses mendapatkan nilai irr. tabel 6. internal rate of return usaha budidaya ikan mas dan nila tahun kenilai npv (i=40%) npv (i=50%) 0 -129.200.000 -129.200.000 -129.200.000 1 73.840.000 52.742.857 49.226.667 2 73.840.000 37.673.469 32.817.778 3 73.840.000 26.909.621 21.878.519 4 73.840.000 19.221.158 14.585.679 5 73.840.000 13.729.398 9.723.786 nilai npv proyek 21.076.504 -967.572 sumber : data primer (diolah tahun 2015) pada saat discount rate yang dioperasikan adalah 40%, nilai net present value yang dihasilkan adalah rp 21.076.504. sedangkan saat discount rate yang dioperasikan adalah 50%, nilai net present value yang dihasilkan adalah rp -967.572. kondisi ini mengindikasikan bahwa nilai irr dari proyek terletak diantara nilai discount rate sebesar 40% dan 50%. dengan metode interpolasi maka akan didapatkan nilai discount rate yang menyebabkan nilai net present value proyek menjadi 0. nilai internal rate return adalah sebesar 49%. jadi, hal ini menunjukkan usaha budidaya ikan mas dan nila pada keramba jaring apung layak untuk dijalankan, karena irr (49%) lebih besar dari tingkat cost of capital (12%), yaitu tingkat suku bunga kredit pada perbankan di indonesia. payback period payback period digunakan untuk mengukur seberapa cepat investasi akan kembali. nilai pay back period yang terjadi dari kegiatan usaha budidaya ikan mas dan nila pada keramba jaring apung adalah 1 tahun 5 bulan. artinya, dalam kurun waktu tersebut total investasi yang dikeluarkan oleh petani sudah kembali. net benefit cost ratio (net b/c) net b/c adalah perbandingan nilai present value yang bernilai negatif dengan present value yang bernilai negatif. nilai net b/c dari budidaya ikan mas dan nila pada keramba jaring apung di waduk cirata adalah 2,06. nilai net b/c lebih besar dari 1 berarti kegiatan usaha layak untuk dilakukan. analisis peningkatkan pendapatan petani keramba jaring …(abel gandhy) 31 usaha budidaya dengan diversifikasi jenis ikan diversifikasi merupakan kegiatan usaha budidaya untuk menambah jenis ikan yang dipelihara dengan tujuan untuk meningkatkan pendapatan petani keramba jaring apung. variasi ikan yang dibudidayakan harus disesuaikan dengan karakteristik perairan waduk cirata, dengan demikian pertumbuhan ikan dapat berlangsung secara optimal serta tingkat mortalitas ikan menjadi rendah. tambahan ikan yang dibudidayakan terdiri dari ikan hias jenis koi dan ikan bawal. alasan lain pemilihan jenis ikan-ikan tersebut adalah karena tersedianya pasar yang akan menampung ikan hasil panen. skema budidaya ikan dalam keramba jaring apung terdiri dari 28 keramba ukuran 7 x 7 meter berisi ikan mas dan ikan nila, 2 keramba berisi ikan bawal dan 2 keramba berisi ikan hias jenis koi. total keramba yang digunakan adalah 32 unit. biaya investasi dan biaya tetap yang digunakan saat dilakukan diversifikasi jenis ikan nilainya sama dengan budidaya yang hanya membudidayakan ikan mas dan ikan nila. total biaya investasi yang dikeluarkan oleh petani adalah rp 129.200.000 dan total biaya tetap per tahun adalah rp 133.600.000. biaya variabel dengan adanya diversifikasi jenis ikan, maka terdapat tambahan biaya untuk pembelian bibit ikan hias jenis koi dan ikan bawal. disisi lain jumlah bibit ikan mas dan nila akan berkurang, karena alokasi keramba berkurang untuk kedua jenis ikan tersebut. keadaan yang sama juga terjadi untuk komponen pakan ikan. biaya variabel yang dikeluarkan petani selama satu tahun pada proses budidaya keramba jaring apung disajikan dalam tabel 7. tabel 7. biaya variabel budidaya keramba jaring apung dengan diversifikasi komponen kuantitas harga satuan jumlah bibit ikan nila 150 17.000 4.760.000 bibit ikan hias 15 100.000 6.000.000 bibit ikan mas 150 26.500 11.130.000 bibit ikan bawal 30 50.000 600.000 pakan mas 15.000 7.600 342.000.000 pakan hias 1.500 10.000 45.000.000 pakan bawal 1.700 7.600 38.760.000 total biaya variabel 448.250.000 sumber : data primer (diolah tahun 2015) arus pendapatan tingkat food convertion ratio (fcr) ikan bawal adalah 0,8. ikan hias jenis koi dijual per ekor, dengan harga jual rp 20.000/ekor. panen ikan koi dan bawal dilakukan setiap 3 bulan sekali. pendapatan usaha setelah dilakukannya diversifikasi jenis ikan yang dibudidayakan ditunjukkan oleh tabel 8. tabel 8. pendapatan dengan diversifikasi jenis ikan yang dibudidayakan komponen kuantitas harga satuan jumlah ikan mas (kg) 21.000 18.500 399.000.000 ikan nila (kg) 11.200 12.000 134.400.000 ikan hias (ekor) 6.000 20.000 120.000.000 ikan bawal (kg) 2.400 12.500 30.000.000 total penerimaan 683.400.000 sumber : data primer (diolah tahun 2015) 32 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 1, april 2017: 25-33 kriteria finansial usaha budidaya dengan diversifikasi jenis ikan kriteria finansial yang dihasilkan dengan melakukan diversifikasi jenis ikan yang dibudidayakan dalam keramba jaring apung dapat dilihat pada tabel 9. tabel 9. pendapatan dengan diversifikasi jenis ikan yang dibudidayakan kriteria finansial nilai npv 294.397.251 irr 87% payback period 1 tahun 2 bulan net b/c 3,28 sumber : data primer (diolah tahun 2015) nilai net present value (npv) usaha budidaya dengan diversifikasi jenis ikan adalah rp 294.397.251. nilai npv meningkat sebesar rp 157.420.576 dibandingkan budidaya ikan mas dan nila pada tempat yang sama. fakta tersebut menunjukkan kegiatan usaha budidaya dengan diversifikasi jenis ikan memberikan peningkatan pendapatan bagi petani. kondisi yang sama terjadi pada internal rate of return (irr). dengan adanya diversifikasi jenis ikan, irr meningkat dari 49% menjadi 87%. terjadi peningkatan sebanyak 38% dari internal rate of return. petani juga akan memperoleh waktu yang lebih cepat untuk pengembalian investasi yang dilakukan pada usaha budidaya ikan dengan keramba jaring apung. dengan dilakukannya diversifikasi jenis ikan, payback period usaha adalah 1 tahun 2 bulan. nilai tersebut 3 bulan lebih cepat jika dibandingkan budidaya yang dilakukan hanya ikan mas dan nila saja. indikator net benefit cost ratio (net b/c) juga menunjukkan hasil yang lebih baik. jika usaha budidaya hanya menggunakan ikan mas dan nila saja nilainya 2,06, maka dengan adanya diversifikasi nilainya menjadi 3,28. nilai yang lebih besar artinya usaha budidaya semakin layak untuk dilakukan. simpulan usaha budidaya ikan pada keramba jaring apung yang dilakukan di waduk cirata pada umumnya membudidayakan ikan mas dan nila. indikator analisis finansial usaha budidaya yang dilakukan terdiri dari net present value (npv) bernilai rp 136.976.675, internal rate of return (irr) adalah 49%, payback period (pp) adalah 1 tahun 5 bulan dan net b/c adalah 2,06. keseluruhan indikator analisis finansial menyatakan usaha budidaya ikan pada keramba jaring apung layak untuk dilakukan. diversifikasi jenis ikan yang dibudidayakan menggunakan ikan hias jenis koi dan ikan bawal. pertimbangan penggunaan kedua jenis ikan tersebut karena cocok dengan karakteristik perairan waduk cirata dan memiliki nilai ekonomis yang tinggi. indikator analisis finansial yang dihasilkan adalah peningkatan net present value (npv) sebesar rp 157.420.576, peningkatan internal rate of return (irr) sebesar 38%, mempercepat payback period selama 3 bulan serta meningkatkan nilai net b/c dari 2,06 menjadi 3,28. indikatorindikator tersebut menunjukkan bahwa kegiatan budidaya dengan diversifikasi jenis ikan direkomendasikan untuk petani, karena akan meningkatkan pendapatan petani. dengan demikian petani direkomendasikan untuk menerapkan diversifikasi budidaya jenis ikan karena akan meningkatkan pendapatan yang diperoleh dengan luas lahan budidaya yang sama. rekomendasi untuk penelitian selanjutnya dimasa yang akan datang adalah perlunya analisis peningkatkan pendapatan petani keramba jaring …(abel gandhy) 33 dilakukan kajian pengguaan spesies ikan lain untuk diversifikasi budidaya jenis ikan. syarat yang harus dipenuhi adalah ikan yang memiliki nilai ekonomis tinggi dan cocok dibudidayakan dengan lingkungan perairan waduk cirata. selain itu, perlu juga dilakukan kajian analisis sensitivitas untuk mengetahui pengaruh perubahan parameter seperti harga ikan dan harga pakan terhadap parameter analisis finansial. daftar pustaka aksomo.r. 2007. nilai ekonomi pemanfaatan waduk cirata untuk perikanan dan wisata tirta di kabupaten cianjur, jawa barat. manajemen bisnis dan ekonomi perikanan-kelautan. fakultas perikanan dan kelautan. institut pertanian bogor. ardi, idil. 2013. budidaya ikan sistem keramba jaring apung guna menjaga keberlanjutan lingkungan perairan waduk cirata. pusat penelitian dan pengembangan perikanan budidaya. jakarta. bkpm. (2014). potensi budidaya jaring apung di jawa barat. diperoleh dari http://regionalinvestment.bkpm.go.id/ newsipid/commodityarea.php?ia=32&i c=1565. diunduh tanggal 27 januari 2015 pukul 15.20. gittinger, j. price. 1986. economic analysis of agricultural projects. 2nd edition. baltimore: john hopkins university press. husnan, suad. 2003, manajemen keuangan teori dan penerapan. edisi keempat, bpfe, yogyakarta. soekarwati. 1995. analisis usaha tani. jakarta : ui press. sylvia, rika. 2013. analisis investasi pendirian home industry keripik singkong di desa gunung ulin kabupaten kotabaru kalimantan selatan. jurnal ekonomi manajemen vol. 7 no. 1 (2013). umar, husein. 2001. study kelayakan bisnis. edisi 3 revisi, gramedia pustaka utama, jakarta. http://regionalinvestment.bkpm.go.id/newsipid/commodityarea.php?ia=32&ic=1565 http://regionalinvestment.bkpm.go.id/newsipid/commodityarea.php?ia=32&ic=1565 http://regionalinvestment.bkpm.go.id/newsipid/commodityarea.php?ia=32&ic=1565 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 1, april 2017, hlm. 1-15 doi: 10.18196/jesp.18.1.3559 dampak ekspektasi dan volatilitas harga padi terhadap alokasi lahan tanam padi di indonesia yanti nurhayanti, widyono soetjipto program pascasarjana ilmu ekonomi, fakultas ekonomi dan bisnis universitas indonesia jl. salemba raya no.4, jakarta 10430 email korespondensi: ynurhayanti@gmail.com naskah diterima: desember 2016; disetujui: april 2017 abstract: this paper aims to look at the impact expectations and volatility of the price of rice and corn to the acreage of rice in indonesia. it is expected that with this paper can contribute academically. bby using a panel data in district paddy, period 2011-2015, empirically proven expectations rise in price rice may increase the acreage of paddy. the volatility of the price rice paddy decreased acreage of rice.by using a panel data in district paddy, period 2011-2015, empirically proven expectations rise in price rice may increase the acreage of paddy. the volatility of the price rice paddy decreased acreage of rice.y using a panel data in district paddy quarterly period 2011-2015, empirically proven expectations rise in price rice may increase the acreage of rice. increase the volatility of the price rice can decrease allocation acreage of r ice. the estimation results with sys-gmm method showed any increase in price rice expectations 1% can improve the allocation of planting 0,2500%. the volatility of rice can decrease 0,0051% acreage of rice ceteris paribus. while the increase volatility of corn prices can increase the allocation of land for planting rice 0,0049% ceteris paribus. the estimation results also indicate that the allocation of land planting rice more responsive than planting corn land allocation to alter expectations and price volatility. policy price /hpp for farmers are not guaranteed to improve the allocation of arable land rice in each planting season. key word : rice price, acreage of rice, price expectations, price volatility jel classification : o11,o13, q11, q13 abstrak: makalah ini disusun dengan tujuan untuk melihat sejauh mana ekspektasi dan volatilitas harga gabah dan jagung mempengaruhi alokasi lahan tanam padi di indonesia. diharapkan dengan makalah ini dapat memberikan kontribusi secara akademik dalam dalam mengkaji sejauh mana ekspektasi dan volatilitas harga gkp mempengaruhi penyediaan padi melalui respon alokasi luas tanam padi. dengan menggunakan data panel kabupaten sentra padi secara kuartal periode tahun 2011-2015, terbukti secara empiris kenaikan ekpektasi harga gabah dapat meningkatkan alokasi lahan tanam padi sedangkan volatilitas harga gabah menurunkan alokasi lahan tanam padi. hasil estimasi dengan metode sys-gmm menunjukkan setiap kenaikan ekspektasi harga gabah 1% dapat meningkatkan alokasi tanam sebesar 0,25% sedangkan volatilitas harga menurunkan alokasi lahan tanam padi sebesar 0,0051% ceteris paribus. sementara itu volatilitas harga jagung meningkatkan alokasi lahan tanam padi sebesar 0,0049% ceteris paribus. selain itu hasil estimasi menunjukan bahwa alokasi lahan tanam padi lebih responsif dibandingkan dengan alokasi lahan tanam jagung terhadap perubahan ekpektasi dan volatilitas harga. kebijakan hpp gkp tingkat petani belum memberikan jaminan dalam meningkatkan alokasi lahan tanam padi pada setiap musim tanam. kata kunci: harga padi, alokasi tanam, ekspektasi harga output, volatilitas harga klasifikasi jel: o11, o13, q11, q13 2 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 1, april 2017: 1-15 pendahuluan ketidakpastian harga output merupakan salah satu permasalahan yang selalu dihadapi petani. ketidakpastian harga output terjadi karena adanya proses alami yang membutuhkan waktu sehingga pada saat panen terjadi, petani belum tentu mendapatkan harga output sesuai dengan yang diharapkan (moschini & henessy, 1999). ketidakpastian harga output akan semakin tidak pasti ketika terjadi volatilitas harga output. oleh karena itu moschini & henessy mengkaitkan volatilitas sebagai sumber penyebab ketidakpastian harga di sektor petanian. dimana ketika volatilitas harga terjadi petani sulit untuk melakukan prediksi harga output pada periode kedepan. padahal harga output merupakan salah satu faktor yang dapat mempengaruhi keputusan petani untuk berproduksi (fao, 2011). petani yang tidak mampu mengantisipasi volatilitas harga output dapat beralih pada komoditas lain atau sektor usaha lain yang mempunyai tingkat volatilitas harga yang lebih kecil dengan tingkat ekonomi yang lebih tinggi (sandmo, 1971; coyle, 1992; moschini & henessy, 1999; batra & ullah, 1974; haille, kalkuhl, & broun, 2015). implikasi ketidakpastian harga terhadap produksi hasil pertanian merupakan isu yang telah lama menjadi bahan perhatian akademisi dan pemangku kebijakan. bagi akademisi isu ketidakpastian harga output masih menarik untuk diteliti karena dengan perkembangan waktu, terjadi pengembangan dan penyempurnaan metodologi. salah satu permasalahan penting yang sering dibahas oleh akademisi adalah mekanisme dampak volatilitas harga output terhadap produksi dan bagaimana pendekatan ekspektasi harga output yang digunakan. sementara itu bagi pemangku kebijakan isu ini penting, khususnya untuk melihat sejauh mana keterkaitan volatilitas harga output terhadap ketersediaan produksi pangan. informasi ini diperlukan oleh pemangku kebijakan sebagai deteksi dini dalam mengantisipasi gangguan hasil produksi serta perencanaan produksi pada periode ke depan (haille, kalkuhl, & broun, 2015). pentingnya peranan volatilitas harga output dalam menentukan produksi telah mendorong perkembangan model produksi di sektor pertanian. diantaranya transmisi dampak volatilitas harga output terhadap output produksi melalui perubahan alokasi lahan tanam (chavas & holt, 1990; coyle, 1992; lansink, 1999). mengingat keputusan alokasi lahan tanam merupakan respon awal petani terhadap adanya ketidakpastian/volatilitas harga output, oleh karena itu pada studi-studi dengan isu volatilitas harga output terhadap produksi pangan, lebih banyak menggunakan variabel dependen alokasi lahan tanam daripada produksi (misalnya: chavas & holt, 1990; coyle, 1992; lansink, 1999; lin, 1997; krause, lee, & koo, 1995; haille, kalkuhl, & braun, 2013). selanjutnya jika tidak mempertimbangkan volatilitas harga output dalam model maka parameter estimasi akan bias (adesina & brorsen, 1987; antonovits & green, 1990; krause, lee, & koo, 1995). di indonesia ketersediaan padi sebagai bahan pangan pokok masyarakat indonesia diduga dipengaruhi oleh volatilitas harga gabah kering (gkp). mengingat besaran volatilitas harga rata-rata nasional gkp pada kurun waktu 5 tahun terakhir berada di kisaran 5,3 -10,20%1. tingkat volatilitas harga gkp tersebut relatif tinggi di atas tingkat fluktuasi yang diharapkan pemerintah yaitu maksimal 5% untuk komoditas padi (kementerian pertanian, 2015). selain itu 1 tingkat fluktuasi dihitung berdasarkan nilai koefisien variasi harga gkp yang bersumber dari data bps. dampak ekspektasi dan volatilitas harga padi… (yanti nurhayanti dan widyono soetjipto) 3 sebagian besar harga gkp di indonesia ditetapkan oleh mekanisme pasar. hal ini dapat dilihat dari harga pembelian gkp oleh pemerintah selalu di bawah harga pasar dan besaran pengadaan gabah/beras oleh pemerintah hanya sekitar 10% dari total produksi padi nasional. dengan demikian, kondisi volatilitas harga gkp yang terjadi dikuatirkan akan mempengaruhi produksi padi di indonesia. studi mengenai permintaan alokasi lahan tanam padi yang menyertakan faktor risiko harga/volatilitas harga output di indonesia masih terbatas. studi terdahulu lebih banyak membahas dampak volatilitas harga terhadap sisi konsumen daripada sisi produksi. namun pada sisi produksi sudah diterapkan pada komoditas hortikultura yang dilakukan oleh fariyanti et.al (2007). fariyanti et.al (2007) melakukan studi perilaku ekonomi rumah tangga petani sayuran pada kondisi adanya risiko produksi dan risiko harga di kecamatan pangalengan kabupaten bandung. hasil studinya menunjukkan volatilitas harga kentang memberikan dampak negatif terhadap alokasi areal tanam kentang dan begitu juga sebaliknya. sejauh mana dampak volatilitas harga gabah sebagai risiko harga terhadap sisi produksi belum ada informasinya. berdasarkan kondisi diatas, muncul pertanyaan tentang bagaimana dampak ekspektasi harga dan volatilitas harga gabah terhadap alokasi luas lahan tanam padi di indonesia? untuk menjawab pertanyaan penelitian tersebut penulis melakukan penelitian dampak ekspektasi dan volatilitas harga gkp terhadap alokasi tanam padi di indonesia dengan mengadopsi studi yang dilakukan oleh haille, kalkuhl, & braun (2013, 2015). model empiris yang akan dibangun pada penelitian ini mempertimbangkan perkembangan studi terbaru, diantaranya pendekatan ekspektasi harga output terbaru, isu ekonometrika terbaru dengan menggunakan metode estimasi gmm, pergerakan volatilitas harga dan periode waktu yang dipantau lebih pendek untuk menangkap perubahan alokasi tanam pada setiap pergantian musim tanam. pada makalah ini mekanisme dampak ekpektasi dan volatilitas harga output terhadap alokasi lahan padi dibangun dari dua kerangka konseptual. kerangka konseptual pertama berdasarkan model nerlove partial adjustment. dan kerangka konseptual kedua berdasarkan teori produksi pada kondisi harga tidak pasti (price uncertainty) yang dikembangkan oleh coyle (1992). berdasarkan pendekatan model nerlove partial adjustment, penawaran produksi dapat diformulasi dari alokasi luas lahan yang dipengaruhi oleh lag respons. sementara itu pendekatan model coyle (1992) berdasarkan maksimisasi kepuasan ekspektasi profit petani terhadap alokasi lahan tanam. berdasarkan tinjauan literatur pendekatan ekspektasi harga output yang digunakan petani bersifat heterogen dalammenggunakan informasi untuk membuat keputusan produksi. kondisi ini menimbulkan beragam pendekatan ekspektasi harga output, akibatnya dampak ekspektasi harga output akan beragam terhadap keputusan petani (antonovits & green, 1990). pendekatan ekpektasi harga output yang sering digunakan antara lain, naif ( (ezekiel, 1938), adaptif (nerlove, 1956), ekspektasi rasional (muth, 1961), pendekatan futures prices (gardner, 1976), dan pendekatan reduced form (nickell, 1981). pendekatan ekspektasi output secara naif dan adaptif mendapatkan kritikan dari beberapa akademisi karena bersifat back-looking. dimana pada kenyataannya harga output bersifat dinamis sehingga diperlukan pendekatan yang lebih bersifat forward-looking akan tetapi tidak efisien digunakan karena dalam pelaksanaannya memerlukan biaya dan sulit untuk diterapkan 4 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 1, april 2017: 1-15 (orazem & minanowski, 1994). begitu juga penggunaan harga futures yang menjadi ambigu ketika petani tidak mempunyai akses pada pasar komoditi berjangka. orazem & minanowski (1994) menyarankan pendekatan ekspektasi harga output lebih baik menggunakan harga aktual pada musim panen periode sebelumnya. pada makalah ini penulis akan menggunakan data harga output aktual menjelang musim tanam sebagai dasar dalam menentukan ekspektasi harga output. hal ini berdasarkan studi terbaru oleh haile, kalkuhl, & usman (2015) yang menggunakan data survei terhadap petani di 7 wilayah di ethiopia. hasil survei menunjukkan bahwa petani cenderung menggunakan pendekatan naif dan adaptif daripada ekspektasi rasional atau harga futures. berdasarkan beberapa model spesifikasi yang dibuat oleh oleh haile, kalkuhl, & usman (2015) menunjukkan bahwa harga aktual menjelang musim tanam merupakan better explanatory power daripada harga musim panen periode sebelumnya. kemudahan informasi harga dan perkembangan alat komunikasi saat ini mendorong petani menggunakan informasi data terbaru yakni data aktual menjelang musim tanam sebagai dasar dalam menentukan ekspektasi harga output daripada harga aktual musim panen periode sebelumnya. begitu juga perkembangan alat komunikasi di indonesia sangat pesat, kemudahan informasi harga yang diterima petani semakin cepat. selain itu, secara simultan penelitian ini akan melibatkan alokasi lahan tanam jagung sebagai komoditas subtitusi dari padi. hal ini untuk menunjukkan adanya peralihan komoditas sesuai dengan kerangka teori yang dikemukakan oleh coyle (1992). untuk itu maka data luas lahan yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini merupakan luas lahan yang digunakan untuk sawah padi total padi irigasi dan non irigasi yang memungkinkan dapat ditanam untuk kedua komoditas tersebut. dengan mengikuti pengukuran alokasi lahan tanam padi, pengukuran alokasi lahan tanam jagung juga diukur pada periode maksimum yang sama untuk setiap subround musim tanam padi. penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melakukan estimasi sejauh mana ekspektasi harga dan volatilitas harga gkp memberikan dampak terhadap alokasi tanam padi di indonesia terutama pada periode jangka pendek. diharapkan dengan penelitian ini dapat memberikan kontribusi secara akademik dalam rangka pengembangan ilmu pengetahuan dan dapat menjadi referensi dalam mengkaji sejauh mana ekspektasi dan volatilitas harga gkp mempengaruhi penyediaan pangan melalui perilaku alokasi luas tanam padi. metode penelitian pada penelitian ini, proxy ekspektasi harga output yang akan digunakan mengikuti studi yang dilakukan oleh haille, kalkuhl, & braun (2013) yaitu pendekatan harga aktual gkp menjelang musim tanam. dalam hal ini petani bersifat perfect foresight dalam berekspektasi, yakni asumsi harga menjelang tanam akan sama dengan harga gkp yang akan diterima pada saat panen mendatang. informasi terbaru harga aktual sebelum proses tanam atau satu bulan menjelang tanam dipandang lebih mendekati harga panen yang akan datang dibandingkan dengan menggunakan harga aktual panen pada musim tanam sebelumnya. untuk itu diperlukan kalender tanam untuk mengetahui pada bulan apa petani melakukan penanaman untuk setiap kabupaten. bulan tanam yang akan dijadikan acuan untuk menghitung ekspektasi harga output merupakan periode bulan periode bulan yang mempunyai alokasi luas lahan tanam padi nilai maksimum pada dampak ekspektasi dan volatilitas harga padi… (yanti nurhayanti dan widyono soetjipto) 5 setiap subround. misalnya pada musim tanam/subround ke i (mh1) yang terjadi pada periode bulan januari april, jika alokasi tanam padi maksimum terjadi pada bulan februari maka harga aktual gabah pada bulan januari menjadi harga ekspektasi gabah. begitu juga pada bulan tanam yang sama, harga jagung aktual di tingkat petani menjadi harga ekspektasi jagung. sementara itu fokus utama lainnya dalam penelitian ini adalah menangkap dampak risiko harga melalui volatilitas harga output. perhitungan volatilitas yang akan digunakan mengikuti studi yang dilakukan haile, kalkuhl, & broun (2013) berdasarkan perhitungan yang dilakukan oleh gilbert & morgan (2010) yaitu standar deviasi dari logaritma harga output pada level first diiference selama 12 bulan sebelum masa tanam. misalkan jika bulan tanam februari maka volatilitas harga output adalah standar deviasi logaritma harga output pada level first difference selama 12 bulan sebelum panen yakni maret tahun sebelumnya sampai dengan februari. persamaan empiris alokasi tanam padi kabupaten j pada periode t yang akan digunakan pada penelitian ini mengadopsi dari haille, kalkuhl, & braun (2013) yaitu persamaan logaritma sehingga semua variabel yang terlibat dalam bentuk logaritma kecuali variabel volatilitas. pada penelitian ini penulis menggunakan alokasi tanam di level agregat kabupaten sentra padi, dengan pertimbangan kabupaten sentra padi yang terpilih merupakan daerah yang komoditas padi sebagai komoditi utama dan jagung sebagai komoditas utama ke 2 setelah padi. lebih spesifik model spesifikasi estimasi adalah sebagai : ( ( )) ( ( )) ( ) ( ) ( ) dimana merupakan alokasi luas tanam komoditas i di kabupaten j pada periode ke-t, merupakan lag luas tanam komoditas i di kabupaten j pada periode ke-t, ( ) merupakan ekspektasi harga output untuk komoditas ke i pada kabupaten ke j pada periode ke-t, merupakan volatilitas harga output komoditas i di kabupaten j pada periode ke-t, w1jt upah tenaga kerja, w2jt input harga eceran tertinggi pupuk urea bersubsidi, w3jt adalah input harga eceran tertinggi benih bersubsidi, merupakan kebijakan harga pembelian pemerintah (hpp) gkp tingkat petani, t total luas lahan sawah irigasi dan non irigasi, pdd merupakan kepadatan penduduk, merupakan efek fixed antar kabupaten, error dan i sama dengan 1,2 menunjukan komoditas padi dan jagung. penelitian yang melibatkan variabel ekspektasi harga dan volatilitas tidak cukup dengan menggunakan data cross section karena perlu dilakukan observasi perilaku unit penelitian pada berbagai periode waktu. data panel yang merupakan gabungan antara data cross section dan time series lebih efisien dalam mempelajari perubahan dinamis. data panel dapat mendeteksi dan mengukur pengaruh yang tidak terobservasi pada data cross section dan time 6 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 1, april 2017: 1-15 series, dan meminimalisasi estimasi yang bersifat bias (shina & setiawan, 2015). untuk itu pada penelitian akan menggunakan data panel selama periode waktu 5 tahun. dimana unit analisis pada studi ini adalah tingkat kabupaten pada provinsi sentra padi yang meliputi n=119 kabupaten. periode waktu data yang digunakan selama t=15 musim tanam pada periode tahun 2011-2015. adapun sumber data yang digunakan berasal dari berbagai sumber data. data luas lahan tanam padi dan jagung bersumber dari data percepatan penyediaan data (ppd) tanaman pangan kementerian pertanian yang berkerjasama dengan badan pusat statistik (bps). data harga padi dan jagung berdasarkan data statistisk harga produsen badan pusat statistik tahun 2011-2015 dan data pemantauan harga pangan panel bkp tingkat produsen, kementerian pertanian. data harga input produksi upah tenaga kerja berdasarkan statistik upah buruh tani 2011-2015 bps. data harga input produksi pupuk urea berdasarkan permentan kebutuhan dan harga eceran tertinggi pupuk anggaran 2011-2015. data harga input produksi benih berdasakan permentan pedoman subsidi benih tahun anggaran 2011, 2013 dan 2015. data harga pembelian pemerintah gkp tingkat petani bersumber badan ketahanan pangan kementerian pertanian. data jumlah penduduk bersumber dari data kependudukan tahun 2011-2015, badan pusat statistik. data total lahan sawah padi berdasarkan data statistik luas lahan menurut penggunaannya tahun 2011-2015, badan pusat statistik. pada penelitian ini menggunakan model regresi data panel dinamis yang melibatkan lag variabel dependen alokasi luas tanam sebagai variable dependen. metode empiris yang digunakan adalah generalized method of moments gmm) yang merupakan penyempurnaan dari metode instrumental variable (iv) untuk menghasilkan penduga parameter yang tidak bias, konsisten dan effisien. (anderson & hsiao, 1982; arrelano & bond, 1991; haille, kalkuhl, & broun, 2015). terdapat dua jenis metode estimasi dengan kerangka gmm, yaitu (1) first-difference gmm (ab-gmm) dan (2) system gmm (sysgmm). pada prosedur estimasi ab-gmm dilakukan transformasi first difference tanpa variabel independen untuk memperoleh instrumen first difference yang valid sedangkan sys-gmm untuk memperoleh variabel instrument first difference dan level. beberapa uji statistik yang dilakukan untuk mengetahui konsistensi estimator dari gmm yang dihasilkan (arrelano & bond, 1991). pertama, uji statistik arellano-bond untuk menguji autokorelasi pada level data harga output. titik uji statistik arellano-bond ditunjukkan oleh nilai uji m1 dan m2, yakni nilai uji pada order 1 dan 2. dimana hipotesisnya adalah sebagai berikut: ho : tidak terdapat autokorelasi antar residual pada first difference orde ke-i hi : terdapat autokorelasi pada residual first difference orde ke –i ̂ ̂ ̂ ̂ ̂ ̂ konsistensi ini ditunjukkan oleh nilai statistik m1 yang signifikan dan nilai statistik m2 yang tidak signifikan. kedua, melakukan pengujian untuk mengetahui validasi variabel instrumen yang digunakan melalui uji sargan yang jumlahnya dampak ekspektasi dan volatilitas harga padi… (yanti nurhayanti dan widyono soetjipto) 7 melebihi dari jumlah parameter yang diestimasi (kondisi overidentifying restriction). dengan uji sargan, variabel instrumen dikatakan valid apabila tidak ada korelasi lagi dengan error. sehingga hipotesis nol untuk uji sargan menyatakan bahwa tiada ada masalah validasi instrumen dengan artian bahwa variabel instrumen pada kondisi overidentifying tersebut tidak berkorelasi dengan error pada persamaan ab-gmm atau bersifat homoskedastisitas. namun alternatif dari pengujian uji sargan dapat dilakukan dengan merubah standar error menjadi robust2. dengan kondisi tersebut model sudah bersifat homoskedastisitas. pada penelitian ini tidak dapat dilakukan uji sargan karena model sudah bersifat homoskedastisitas. adapun secara ringkas tahapan untuk menduga parameter model data panel dinamis pada pada penelitian ini adalah sebagai berikut: (1) melakukan estimasi menggunakan ab-gmm pada kondisi standar error robust. (2) menguji spesifikasi parameter dengan menggunakan uji arellano-bond. (3) jika tidak memenuhi, maka akan dilanjutkan dengan melakukan estimasi dengan sys-gmm dengan pada kondisi standar error robust. (4) menguji spesifikasi parameter dengan menggunakan uji arellano-bond. (5) menguji spesifikasi parameter model dengan 2 berdasarkan http://www.stata.com/manuals13/rgmmpostestimation.pd f secara bersama-sama dengan menggunakan uji wald. (6) menguji signifikansi parameter model secara partial menggunakan uji z serta tanda dari setiap koefisien estimasi yang diperoleh akan dianalisis untuk melihat relevansinya dengan teori. (7) memeriksa apakah estimator yang dihasilkan berada diantara nilai koefisien lag dependen pooled least squares (pls) dan fixed effects model (fem). (8) kemudian dari hasil estimasi juga akan dilakukan analisis untuk menjawab tujuan dan hipotesis penelitian. hasil dan pembahasan statistik deskripsi yang dihimpun untuk mengestimasi dampak ekspektasi harga gabah dan volatilitas gabah terhadap alokasi luas lahan tanam padi disajikan pada tabel 5.2. luas lahan tanam padi diukur dalam hektar dan rata-rata luas tanam per kabupaten 10,1 ribu hektar sedangkan rata-rata lahan sawah yang tersedia 31,64 ribu hektar atau sekitar 30,94% dari luas total lahan sawah. fluktuasi luas lahan tanam padi antar waktu dan antar kabupaten bervariasi cukup tinggi dengan nilai koefisien variasi sebesar 88,79%. hal ini mengimplikasikan bahwa perubahan alokasi lahan tanam padi sepanjang musim tanam cukup tinggi. sementara itu ratarata luas lahan tanam jagung per kabupaten 3,4 ribu hektar. fluktuasi luas lahan tanam jagung antar waktu dan antar kabupaten bervariasi tinggi sebesar 162%. 8 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 1, april 2017: 1-15 tabel 1. statistik deskriptif data sampel penelitian variabel satuan mean std. dev. cv(%) luas lahan tanam padi1 ha 10.100,5800 8.968,8300 79,0256 luas lahan tanam jagung1 ha 3.444,2100 5.613,6000 88,7952 ekspektasi harga gabah2 rp/kg 3.648,6520 712,0946 162,9866 volatilitas harga gabah2 % 9,9781 6,2027 19,5166 volatilitas harga jagung2 % 9,4297 7,8595 62,1636 ekspektasi harga jagung2 rp/kg 3.079,2240 798,6499 83,3479 harga pupuk urea3 rp/kg 1.760,0000 80,0224 25,9367 harga upah tenaga kerja4 rp/kg 32.832,0600 9.579,2830 4,5467 harga benih padi3 rp/kg 3.542,0000 1.488,6440 29,1766 jumlah penduduk4 jiwa 506,2878 477,5993 42,0283 luas lahan sawah5 ha 32.640,1600 20.409,5200 94,3336 sumber : berbagai sumber (diolah) 1. data tp, kementan-bps 2. data bps dan data bkp 3. permentan het pupuk dan benih 4. statistik upah buruh tani dan statistik kependudukan, bps dan 5. statitik lahan pertanian, basis data pusdatin-kementan metode estimasi sys-gmm telah memenuhi kriteria model terbaik untuk alokasi lahan tanam padi dan jagung. nilai probabilitas hasil uji arrelano bond menunjukkan signifikan sedangkan tidak signifikasi baik untuk alokasi lahan tanam padi maupun jagung. dengan kata lain kedua metode estimasi baik dengan abgmm maupun sys gmm konsisten untuk kedua komoditas tersebut. namun dari uji wald menunjukkan bahwa metode sys-gmm lebih signifikan dibandingkan dengan metode estimasi ab-gmm, tingkat probabilitas model sys-gmm lebih kecil dibandingkan dengan ab-gmm. begitu juga dilihat dari besaran estimator sysgmm lag dependen menunjukkan berada diantara nilai koefisien pooled least squares (pls) dan fixed effects model (fem). tabel 2. hasil estimasi alokasi luas tanam padi variabel variabel dependen : alokasi luas tanam padi pool fe ab-gmm sys-gmm ln at-1 0,6719 *** -0,0972 *** 0,1959 * 0,1933 ** 0,0000 0,0001 0,2130 0,032 ln e(p1) 0,4181 *** 0,2771 *** 0,2341 ** 0,2504 ** 0,0000 0,0020 0,0370 0,0210 volgbh -0,0063 *** -0,0047 ** -0,0048 * -0,0051 *** 0,0003 0,0300 0,0999 0,0580 ln e(p2) -0,0432 0,0792 -0,0110 0,0092 dampak ekspektasi dan volatilitas harga padi… (yanti nurhayanti dan widyono soetjipto) 9 variabel variabel dependen : alokasi luas tanam padi pool fe ab-gmm sys-gmm 0,4230 0,2640 0,8888 0,902 voljgg 0,0081 *** 0,0047 *** 0,0049 *** 0,0049 *** 0,0000 0,0100 0,0020 0,0020 ln uph -0,1969 *** -0,3511 -0,2950 -0,2840 0,0004 0,3030 0,3550 0,2860 ln tt 0,2423 *** 0,2906 * 0,1210 0,3903 *** 0,0000 0,0690 0,7120 0,0790 ln pddk 0,0036 -0,1779 * -0,1439 ** -0,1375 0,8150 0,0910 0,0170 0,1020 ln hpp 0,2113 0,5753 0,3981 0,3980 0,4530 0,2150 0,3110 0,2490 ln benih 0,0547 -0,0439 -0,0118 -0,0104 0,1010 0,2670 0,7120 0,7190 konstanta -2,7756 4,1747 * 4,8163 1,6485 0,1750 0,0820 0,1999 0,5410 *, **, ***, signifikan pada level 1%, 5%, 10% tabel 3. hasil estimasi alokasi luas tanam jagung variabel variabel dependen : luas alokasi tanam jagung pool fe ab-gmm sys-gmm ln at-1 0,8540 *** 0,0109 -0,0379 0,3849 0,0000 0,6490 0,4410 0,0000 ln e(p1) 0,0015 -0,0518 0,0449 0,0978 0.9910 0,6870 0,7000 0,5700 volgbh 0,000097 0,0014 0,0280 0,0014 0,9980 0,6000 0,3460 0,761 ln e(p2) -0,0094 0,2623 0,1542 0,5020 * 0,935 0,0910 * 0,3960 0,0750 voljgg -0,0027 -0,0047 * -0,0038 -0,0062 0,3490 0,0660 0,1760 01620 ln uph -0,3991 0,0286 0,3463 -0,3817 0,004 0,9330 0,3280 0,4540 ln tt 0,0534 ** 0,2269 0,4213 1,2549 ** 0,1890 0,4910 0,3630 0,0350 ln pddk 0,0431 -02717 * -0,2086 0,3283 0,1350 0,0680 0,2370 0,2540 ln hpp 0,6936 0,6857 -0,0492 0,5757 0,137 0,2060 0,9120 0,4140 ln benih 0,2127 ** 0,0609 0,0656 * 0,0420 10 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 1, april 2017: 1-15 variabel variabel dependen : luas alokasi tanam jagung pool fe ab-gmm sys-gmm 0,002 0,1890 0,0720 0,4580 konstanta -2,8052 -1,8599 -1,1451 16,119 0,4070 0,6710 0,8380 0,016 ** *, **, ***, signifikan pada level 1%, 5%, 10% tabel 2 dan tabel 3 memperlihatkan dampak ekspektasi harga output berdasarkan metode estimasi sys-gmm untuk alokasi lahan tanam padi dan jagung. hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa ekspektasi harga gabah berdampak positif terhadap alokasi luas tanam padi pada tingkat signifikan 5%. begitu juga dengan ekspektasi harga jagung yang berdampak positif terhadap alokasi lahan tanam jagung pada tingkat signifikan 10%. kedua model alokasi lahan tanam dalam penelitian ini merespon secara positip dan signifikan terhadap perubahan ekspektasi harga output sendiri (own price). kondisi ini konsisten dengan konseptual teori coyle (1992) yang menjelaskan secara teoritis bahwa kenaikan ekspektasi harga output dapat meningkatkan alokasi tanam. kondisi ini juga sejalan juga dengan studi empiris yang telah dilakukan sebelumnya diantaranya oleh adesina & wade brosen (1987); chavas & holt (1990); krause & koo (1996); leo s.a, 2000;haille, kalkuhl, & braun (2013, 2015). alokasi lahan tanam padi merespon lebih kecil perubahan ekspektasi harga gabah dibandingkan dengan respon alokasi lahan tanam jagung terhadap perubahan ekpektasi harga jagung. hal ini dapat dilihat dari nilai koefisien regresi untuk ekspektasi harga gabah lebih kecil dibandingkan dengan nilai koefisien regresi untuk ekspektasi harga jagung untuk setiap alokasi lahan tanam masing-masing komoditas. dimana pada kondisi variabel independen lain konstan, kenaikan ekspektasi harga gabah sebesar 1% dapat meningkatkan alokasi lahan tanam padi sebesar 0,25% sedangkan kenaikan ekspektasi harga jagung dapat meningkatkan alokasi lahan tanam jagung sebesar 0,50%. tidak seperti halnya ekspektasi harga output sendiri (own price), volatilitas harga output sendiri (own volatility price) baik gabah dan jagung menunjukkan dampak yang berbeda terhadap alokasi lahan tanam. volatilitas harga gabah dan jagung lebih berdampak pada perubahan alokasi lahan tanam padi dibandingkan dengan alokasi lahan tanam jagung. dimana setiap kenaikan 1% standar deviasi dari perubahan harga gabah dapat mengurangi alokasi lahan tanam padi sebesar 0,0051% sedangkan kenaikan 1% standar deviasi dari perubahan harga jagung dapat meningkatkan alokasi lahan tanam padi sebesar 0,0049%. kondisi ini sesuai dengan teori yang telah dikemukakan sebelumnya bahwa produser dalam hal ini petani yang bersifat risk averse akan mengurangi alokasi sumber daya produksi dan meningkatkan alokasi sumber daya produksi komoditas subtitusinya (sandmo, 1971; batra & ullah, 1974; coyle, 1992). namun pada penelitian ini tidak menunjukkan cukup bukti bahwa volatilitas harga gabah dan jagung dapat memberikan dampak terhadap alokasi lahan tanam jagung. perubahan alokasi lahan tanam jagung tidak responsif terhadap perubahan volatilitas harga gabah maupun volatilitas harga jagung. lag alokasi tanam satu periode sebelumnya secara statistik memberikan dampak positif terhadap model alokasi lahan tanam baik komoditas padi ataupun jagung. kondisi ini sejalan dengan hasil penelitian haille, kalkuhl, & dampak ekspektasi dan volatilitas harga padi… (yanti nurhayanti dan widyono soetjipto) 11 braun (2013,2015) yang berdampak positif terhadap alokasi tanam. menurut haille, kalkuhl, & braun (2015), koefisien regresi dari lag alokasi tanam satu periode sebelumnya mengindikasikan bahwa terjadi biaya penyesuaian (cost adjustment) akibat dari rotasi jenis komoditas dari padi ke jagung atau sebaliknya atau penyesuaian dari input produksi yang relatif tetap3. sementara itu hausman (2012) menjelaskan bahwa koefisien lag dependen merefleksikan variabel diluar model yang tidak teramati (unobserved dynamics faktors). harga input produksi merupakan faktor penting yang dapat mempengaruhi keputusan petani dalam menentukan alokasi lahan tanam padi maupun jagung. secara teori ekonomi kenaikan input harga produksi dapat mempengaruhi penurunan produksi, produktivitas dan alokasi lahan tanam. namun dalam penelitian ini kedua jenis input produksi yaitu upah buruh tani, benih padi inbrida dan benih jagung komposit tidak membuktikan adanya dampak terhadap alokasi lahan tanam padi dan jagung. hal ini diduga dari penggunaan data upah buruh tani yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini menggunakan data provinsi yang variasinya relatif kecil sehingga tidak terlalu merefleksikan harga upah buruh tani tingkat kabupaten. sementara itu data harga input benih yang digunakan merupakan harga benih subsidi yang harganya relatif rendah dan stabil. pada penelitian ini kepadatan penduduk di setiap kabupaten/kota mempengaruhi alokasi lahan tanam padi. dimana setiap peningkatan kepadatan penduduk sebesar 1% dapat menurunkan alokasi lahan tanam padi sebesar 0,1375% pada kondisi variabel independen lain konstan. hal ini terjadi karena kepadatan 3 misalnya sepesifik lahan, tingkat kesuburan tanah ataupun teknologi. penduduk merupakan gambaran pertumbuhan jumlah penduduk dan pengembangan perdesaan terhadap sejumlah lahan. dengan demikian peningkatan kepadatan penduduk dapat meningkatkan permintaan lahan untuk berbagai kebutuhan penduduk seperti tempat tinggal dan tidak menutup kemungkinan akan terjadi alih lahan fungsi dari pertanian ke nonpertanian. sementara itu penambahan areal lahan sawah terbukti memberikan dampak positif terhadap alokasi tanam padi dan jagung. kondisi ini konsisten dengan adanya kebijakan pemerintah dalam meningkatkan produksi melalui perluasan areal sawah sejak tahun 2011 diberbagai wilayah di indonesia. dengan adanya penambahan areal sawah baru tersebut mendorong alokasi tanam padi dan jagung menjadi lebih tinggi. dimana setiap kenaikan 1% luas lahan sawah dapat meningkatkan alokasi lahan tanam padi sebesar 0,3980% dan 12,549% alokasi lahan jagung dimana variabel yang lain relatif konstan. hal ini sesuai dengan kondisi yang ada di lapanngan, pembentukan areal sawah baru yang akan digunakan untuk padi memerlukan waktu yang lebih panjang dibandingkan dengan jagung. pada penelitian ini kebijakan stabilisasi harga gabah melalui hpp tidak cukup bukti memberikan dampak positif terhadap alokasi tanam padi. temuan ini tidak sejalan dengan penelitian yang dilakukan oleh chavas & holt, 1990 dan krause & koo, (1995, 1996) dimana adanya kebijakan harga dapat memberikan dampak yang positip terhadap alokasi lahan atau bahkan tidak terjadi respon yang signifikan terhadap alokasi lahan tanam. begitu juga dengan studi yang dilakukan oleh hadi (2000) bahwa perubahan harga dasar gabah (hgd) akan meningkatan luas lahan padi. namun hal ini dimungkinkan terjadi karena serapan gabah/beras yang dibeli pemerintah melalui 12 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 1, april 2017: 1-15 perum bulog hanya sebagian kecil dari produksi nasional. selain itu juga sesuai dengan tujuan dari kebijakan dibentuk memang untuk membantu petani meningkatkan harga jual gabah disaat jatuh pada musim panen raya sehingga efektivitas dari kebijakan ini terasa dampaknya ketika harga gabah jatuh pada periode-periode tertentu. simpulan secara teori ekonomi keputusan petani dalam menanam padi akan dipengaruhi oleh ekspektasi harga dan volatilitas harga gabah yang akan dihasilkan. petani secara individu mungkin tidak akan mempertimbangkan apakah keputusan menanam atau tidak menanam padi akan mempengaruhi ketersediaan padi di suatu wilayah. namun tentu tidak demikian bagi pemerintah, pemerintah berkepentingan terhadap penyediaan pangan setiap saat untuk melaksanakan undang-undang pangan. menggunakan data panel kabupaten/kota selama periode tahun 2011-2015, penelitian ini melakukan investigasi dampak ekspektasi dan volatilitas harga padi terhadap alokasi lahan tanam padi di indonesia. disamping untuk melihat perubahan alokasi lahan tanam padi, secara simultan penelitian ini juga ingin melihat perubahan alokasi lahan tanam jagung sebagai komoditas subtitusinya. hasil estimasi menunjukkan bukti bahwa perubahan alokasi luas lahan tanam padi di indonesia lebih responsif daripada alokasi lahan tanam jagung terhadap volatilitas harga. perubahan alokasi lahan tanam padi menjadi lahan jagung dapat berubah pada setiap musim tanam padi ketika terjadi perubahan harga gabah ataupun volatilitas gabah. pengalokasian lahan tanam padi ke lahan tanam jagung tersebut memang tidak terjadi pada saat adanya perubahan harga ekspektasi harga jagung akan tetapi terjadi ketika harga jagung berfluktuasi. kondisi ini berbeda dengan perubahan alokasi lahan tanam jagung, perubahan alokasi lahan tanam jagung tidak merespon perubahan harga gabah ataupun volatilitas harga gabah. perubahan lahan tanam jagung hanya merespon terhadap perubahan harga ekspektasi harga jagung saja. hal ini memang terkait dengan infrastruktur dari lahan sawah untuk padi dapat cepat digunakan untuk jagung akan tetapi tidak berlaku sebaliknya. perubahan alokasi tanam padi dapat terjadi pada jangka waktu pendek yaitu pada saat setiap perubahan alokasi tanam. musim tanam kedua yang terjadi pada bulan mei sampai dengan agustus merupakan musim tanam yang terendah dibandingkan dengan musim tanam pertama dan musim tanam ketiga. hal ini terjadi dikarenakan pada musim tanam kedua sudah memasuki periode musim yang curah hujannya lebih sedikit dibandingkan musim tanam pertama (subround i) ataupun musim tanam ketiga (subround iii). akibatnya hasil panen padi pada musim kedua yang terjadi pada periode september sampai desember akan lebih rendah dibandingkan musim tanam pertama dan musim ketiga. dengan demikian kenaikan harga gabah pada akhir tahun akan berlangsung terus jika kondisi masih terjadi pada periode ke depan. implikasi kebijakan yang diperlukan berdasarkan hasil studi ini adalah upaya penurunan tingkat volatilitas harga gabah. fluktuasi luas tanam padi di setiap musim merupakan salah satu penyebab terjadinya volatilitas harga gabah. untuk itu diperlukan pasokan gabah pada saat penyediaan berkurang. kebijakan cadangan pangan dapat menjadi solusi untuk mengatasi gejolak harga gabah. hal ini dapat dilakukan dengan meningkatkan cadangan gabah melalui lumbung padi masyarakat. lumbung padi masyarakat yang dimaksud adalah menyimpan sebagian hasil panen gabah di saat panen raya dan menjualnya di saat dampak ekspektasi dan volatilitas harga padi… (yanti nurhayanti dan widyono soetjipto) 13 penyediaan berkurang yaitu sekitar bulan september sampai desember. dengan demikian gejolak harga gabah dapat teratasi. selain itu penambahan pasokan gabah pada musim tersebut diperlukan peningkatan areal tanam pada musim tanam kedua yang didukung oleh sarana prasarana seperti pengembangan varietas benih padi unggul yang siap dalam menghadapi curah hujan sedikit ataupun gelombang panas. daftar pustaka abbott, p. c., hurt, c., & teyner, w. e. (2011). what is driving food prices in 2011? indiana: farm foundation. adesina, a. a., & brorsen, b. w. (1987). a risk responsive acreage respons function for millet in niger. agricultural economic i, 229-239. aimin, h. (2010). uncertainty, risk averse and risk management in agriculture. agriculture and agricultural science procedia , 152-156. anderson, t., & hsiao, c. (1982). formulation and estimation of dynamic models using panel data. journal od econometris 18(1), 47-82. antonovits, f., & green, r. (1990). alternative estimates of fed beef supply response to risk. agricultural and apllied economic assosiation , vol.72 no.2. arnade, c., & kelch, d. r. (2007). estimation of area elasticities from a standart profit function. american journal of agricultural economic . arrelano, m., & bond, s. (1991). some test of specifications for panel data : monte carlo evidence and applications to employments equations. the reviews economics studies 58(2), 277-279. batra, r. n., & ullah, a. (1974). competitive firm and the theory of input demand under price uncertainty. journal of political economy, 537-548. bellemare, m., c. barret, & d.just . (2013). the welfare impacts of commodity price volatility : evidence from rural ethiopia . american journal of agricultural economics 95 (4) , 877-99. carlos, a., & joseph, c. (2013). price expectation and supply response. annual meeting agricultural and applied economics association. washington dc. chavas, j. p., & holt, t. h. (1990). acreage dicision under risk : the case of corn and soybean. american journal of agricutural economics, vo. 72, no 3. coyle, b. t. (1992). risk averse and price risk in duality model production: a linear mean-variance approach. agricultural and applied economics association, 849-859. ezekiel, m. (1938). the cobweb theorem. the quartely journal of economics, 255-280. fao. (2011). price volatility in food and agricultural markets : policy response. fariyanti, a., & et.al. (2007). perilaku ekonomi rumah tangga petani sayuran pada kondisi risiko produksi dan risiko harga di kecamatan pangalengan kabupaten bandung. agro ekonomi, 178206. gardner, b. l. (1976). futures prices in supply analysis. american journal of agricultural economics , 81-88. 14 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 1, april 2017: 1-15 gilbert, c. l., & morgan, c. w. (2010). food price volatility. philosophical transaction of the royal society b: biological science 365 (1554). hadi, p. (2000). dampak kebijakan harga dasar pada harga produsen, harga konsumen dan luas tanam padi: belajar dari pengalaman masa lalu. pusat analisis ekonomi dan kebijakan pertanian. haile, m. g., kalkuhl, m., & usman, a. m. (2015). market information and smallholder farmes price expectations. african journal of agricultural and resource economics, 10(4) : 297-311. haille, m. g., kalkuhl, m., & braun, j. v. (2013). inter-and intra seasonal crop acreage response tointernational food price and implications of volatility. agricultural economic. haille, m. g., kalkuhl, m., & broun, j. v. (2015). wordwide acreage and yield response to international price change and volatility : a dynamic panel data analysis for wheat, rice, corn, and soybean. amer.j.agron. 98(1) : 172 -190. huchet, m., & bourdon. (2011). agricultural commodity price volatility: an overview. paris: oecd food, agriculture and fisheries makalahs, no. 52, oecd publishing . kementerian pertanian. (2015). rencana strategis kementerian pertanian tahun 2015-2019. jakarta. krause, m. a., lee, j. h., & koo, w. w. (1995). program and nonprogram wheat acreage response to price and risk. journal of agricultural and resource economics , 20(1); 96-107. krause, m., & koo, w. 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(1999, july). uncertainty, risk aversion, and risk management for agricultural producers. amsterdam: handbook of agricultural economics, vol. 1, part a, 2001, pp. 87153. muth, j. f. (1961). rational expectations and the theory of price movements. journal of econometrica society 29(3), 315-335. nerlove, m. (1956). estimates of elasticities of supply of selected agricultural commodities. journal of farm economics 38 (2), 496-509. nickell, s. (1981). biases in dynamic models with fixed effects. econometrica 49(6), 14171426. dampak ekspektasi dan volatilitas harga padi… (yanti nurhayanti dan widyono soetjipto) 15 orazem , p., & minanowski, j. (1994). dynamic model of acreage allocation. journal of agricultural economics, 385-395. sandmo, a. (1971). on the theory of competitive firm under price uncertainty. the american economic reviews 61 (1), 65-73. shina , a. f., & setiawan. (2015). estimasi parameter sistem model persamaann simultan pada data panel dinamis dengan gmm arellano dan bonnd. prosiding seminar nasional matematik dan pendidikan matematika . tedesse, g., algerie, b., kalkuhl, m., & braun, j. v. (2014). drivers and triggers of international food price spikevs and volatility. food policy (47), 117-28. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 23 no 1, april 2022 article type: research paper regional energy master plan based on low emission scenarios: case study of central java province, indonesia lilies setiartiti abstract: the current energy crisis momentum is the right time to redesign energy policy; otherwise, the energy deficit will continue and influence economic activities. for this reason, this research took central java province as a case study. this research aims to estimate energy demand, the dominance of energy use, and energy efficiency. in this study, energy demand was modeled by sector using the intensity approach to calculate the energy used per activity unit. low emissions analysis platform (leap) model was then utilized to figure out future trends in energy demand and energy structure from 2015 to 2030 under different scenarios, including business as usual (bau), moderate (mod), and optimistic (opt) scenarios. the results uncovered that energy demand in central java has grown by 5.6% per year, and the overall final energy demand is 1,683,091.24 thousand boe. in this case, the transportation and household sectors are the largest and second-largest consumers, while premium and electricity are the dominant components in this province. in addition, efficiency energy could be achieved in 2021 and 2017, respectively, under the mod and opt scenarios. from the utilization of renewable energy, central java also contributes 1.17% to the utilization of renewable energy nationally. overall, this research provides important insights and highlights possible steps for policymakers in developing energy efficiency policies. keywords: leap; central java; energy plan; scenario jel classification: o13; p18; p2; q43 introduction the current world energy crisis has occurred, and the energy consumption is largely controlled only by the major industrial countries in the world (zhao, 2008). related to the projections of the world energy agency (international energy agency-iea), by 2030, the world’s energy demand will increase by 45% or an average increase of 1.6% per year. the implication is that the security of energy supplies will continue to decline and potentially trigger another world economy recession (connolly et al., 2010). this fact has been responded by several countries to redesign their energy planning policies, such as those in china (tao et al., 2011), thailand (wangjiraniran et al., 2011), turkey (karabulut et al., 2008), iran (ghader et al., 2006), and sweden (nilsson & mårtensson, 2003). developed countries, such as california (ghanadan & koomey, 2005) have also even anticipated the energy crisis by preparing energy plans early. affiliation: department of economics, faculty of economics and business, universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta, special region of yogyakarta, indonesia correspondence: setiartiti.lilies1267@gmail.com this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v23i1.14070 citation: setiartiti, l. (2022). regional energy master plan based on low emission scenarios: case study of central java province, indonesia. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 23(1), 171-187. article history received: 24 feb 2022 revised: 04 apr 2022 11 apr 2022 accepted: 28 apr 2022 https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorid=57200538604 https://economics-feb.umy.ac.id/ https://economics-feb.umy.ac.id/ https://economics-feb.umy.ac.id/ https://economics-feb.umy.ac.id/ https://economics-feb.umy.ac.id/ mailto:setiartiti.lilies1267@gmail.com http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/14070 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v23i1.14070&domain=pdf setiartiti regional energy master plan based on low emission scenarios jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 172 for central java province, redesigning the right energy policy is also crucial, considering the highly consumptive energy use patterns. it can be seen from the biggest energy users in the household and transportation sectors, which accounted for 19.98% and 71.86% of the total energy used, where oil energy still dominated its use, reaching 78.67%, and the efficiency of energy use was about 1.3 (rued central java, 2009). this efficiency level indicates that energy use is still wasteful or inefficient because to run 1% economic growth, energy with greater growth each year is required. with this phenomenon, the central java provincial government, as the opinion of cai et al. (2009) and connolly et al. (2010), should have done the right energy planning so that the energy supply could produce resilient energy and use energy more efficiently; or else, central java will face serious energy problems that will affect economic activity and social welfare (stern, 2010). energy planning is needed, among others, to ensure that energy availability is guaranteed because energy is a vital requirement for human life (pierce, 1996; winarno, 2007). a comprehensive plan in which energy is associated with various fields, according to reuter and voss (1990), shan et al. (2012), feng and zhang (2012), and cai et al. (2009), will make energy more optimized in its utilization. in addition, energy planning varies greatly and can be done from simple to complex planning systems to produce integrated energy planning (schrattenholzer, 2004). furthermore, pindyck (1979) explained that various energy models had been developed to assist energy planning, both models based on econometrics or statistical techniques, to make long-term energy demand projections. energy planning can also be done by developing and analyzing energy scenarios, as done by ghanadan and koomey (2005), shan et al. (2012), and feng and zhang (2012). moreover, energy is a variable with a positive effect on economic growth, as stated in a study conducted by stern and cleveland (2004); toman and jamelkova (2003); cleveland and stern (1993); ramos-martini and ortega-cerda (2003); chali and mulugeta (2009); aqeel and butt (2001); sugiyono (1999). they agreed that the entire economic process requires energy, the importance of the role of energy for economic growth and human development, and its impact on sustainable development. they further asserted that sustainable development should be perceived as another dimension of economic growth that can only be achieved with the production and use of sustainable energy. meanwhile, many studies have emphasized the projected energy demand, intended to determine the continuity of energy supply and optimization and the impact of energy consumption on co2 gas emissions. research using the leap (long-range energy alternative planning) model based on several of these scenarios has been conducted by shan et al. (2012), feng and zhang (2012), wangjiraniran et al. (2011), tao et al. (2011), xiandong et al. (2012), and several regencies/cities in indonesia. the empirical study results of shan et al. (2012) and wangjiraniran et al. (2011) revealed that the transformation of the economic development model could slow the growth rate of energy consumption, improve energy structure, reduce the share of coal and oil in primary energy consumption, increase the share of natural gas and non-fossil energy, and significantly reduce the intensity of carbon gas emissions (feng & zhang, 2012). a study based on the leap model conducted by tao setiartiti regional energy master plan based on low emission scenarios jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 173 et al. (2011) used a basic scenario, a low carbon scenario, and a pessimistic low carbon scenario formulated to simulate low carbon economic development in china until 2050. the study results showed a significant reduction in co2 gas emissions in china due to the high energy intensity. therefore, this research is intended to analyze the energy demand by sector with the final energy approach used as a reference for regional energy planning related to the economic growth targets desired by the government. from this analysis, this research gives new contribution for the previous research, that is, various efforts are made to conserve energy through scenario simulations to achieve efficient energy use and formulate policies to build energy use efficiency systems. for this purpose, this research attempts to use an accounting model with leap software. leap is a model that meets the criteria in regional energy planning because it can be used to analyze energy supply and utilization (winarno, 2007). as a predictor tool, leap can make projections of energy demand and supply within a certain period following the user's wishes. energy planning is basically an estimate of future energy demand and supply and has an essential role because it can be used as a basis for integrated energy policy development (schrattenholzer, 2004). principally, energy demand depends on 1) the demand for services provided, 2) the availability and ownership of energy conversion technology or capital stock, and 3) the cost of the technology conversion used (sweeney, 2001). dahl and kurtubi (2001) suggested that the demand for energy resources can be seen as an effort of consumers to satisfy their needs. it can be explained by using the marshallian demand theory that energy consumers are assumed to try to maximize the utility function by considering budget constraints. according to dahl and kurtubi (2001), if the consumer utility is expressed as u (e, o), and the income constraint is pee + poo = y, the problem of consumer maximization using the lagrange (λ) method can be stated as follows. u = u(e, o) – λ (y pee poo) (1) the first derivative is u λpe = 0 and u λpo = 0, and the second derivative is negative. after getting the values of λ by solving algebra, the energy demand function is obtained as follows: e = f (pe, y, po, (2) e = energy demand, pe = energy price, y = income, po = other goods prices, and o = other goods. this formulation can be expressed in simple static and dynamic econometric equations as follows: et = β0 + β1yt + β2pt + u (3) et = β0 + β1yt + β2pt + β3et-1 + u (4) where: et = energy consumption at time t; et-1 = energy consumption at time t-1; yt = income at time t; pt = energy price at time t; e = confounding variable. setiartiti regional energy master plan based on low emission scenarios jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 174 guertin et al. (2003) illustrated the energy demand by giving an example of a household purchasing electric utilities (kwh), fuel oil (liters), and gas (m³), which are then transformed into energy services for lighting, cooling, heating, and appliances other electricity through technology conversion. this relationship is described between input and output energy. energy input is related to the consumer's energy content, whereas energy output is associated with the load. thus, the end-users are different from energy services. end-uses relate to unbundled input energy with components (heating devices, air conditioners, electric lights, in other electrical equipment), while energy services are charged provided by end-uses categories (barnes et al., 1981), such as hot, cold, bright, and others. furthermore, energy demand by consumers in the form of final energy is classified by sector. in the world energy model (wem) developed by the iea in 1993, energy demand can be divided into sectors: the final energy demand of the industrial sector, the household sector, the service sector, and the transportation sector (iea, 2008). according to the iea, the final energy demand is modeled in detail by sector, and end energy user scope, namely: (1) industry is separated into five sub-sectors to enable a more detailed analysis of trends and controls in the industrial sector; (2) residential energy demand is divided into five end-users according to fuel; (3) requests for services; (4) energy demand in the transportation sector is modeled in detail according to modes of transportation and fuel. in other words, the final energy demand is modeled at the sector level for each wem region, but separation is done at the end-user level. the total final energy demand is the amount of energy consumption in each end-user sector. in each sub-sector or end-user, at least six types of energy will be displayed: coal, oil, gas, electricity, geothermal energy, and renewable energy. in each sub-sector or enduser, energy demand is assumed to result from the energy intensity and activity variables. here, energy demand analysis can use the activity-based analysis method. in this method, the energy demand is calculated as a product of the energy activity and the energy intensity (the amount of energy used per unit of activity). this method consists of two analytical models: final energy demand analysis and useful energy demand analysis. in the final energy demand analysis, the energy demand is calculated as a result of the multiplication of the total energy use activities with the energy intensity in each technology branch. in the form of a mathematical equation, the calculation of energy demand using the final energy demand analysis is: db,s,t = tab,s,t × eib,s,t (5) where d is demand, ta is total activity, ei is energy intensity, b is "sector," s is a type of scenario, and t is the year when the calculation (the starting base year to the final year of calculation). meanwhile, energy intensity is the annual average energy consumption (energy consumption = ec) per unit of activity (activity level). mathematically, it is shown by the following equation: ei = ec/activity level (6) setiartiti regional energy master plan based on low emission scenarios jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 175 then, total technological activity results from the activity level in all branches of technology that will affect the branch of demand. tab,s,t = ab’,s,t × ab’’,s,t × ab’’’,s,t (7) where ab is the activity level at a particular branch b, b' is the parent of branch b, b' 'is the parent branch b', and so on. moreover, planning is a foresight that concerns resources so that energy planning will relate to allocative planning and strategy planning (reuter & voss, 1990). good energy planning can integrate all energy sub-sectors, including the rural energy sector, and aspects related to the energy sector as a whole (schrattenholzer, 2004; nilsson & mårtensson, 2003). the aspects related to energy planning are socio-economic, environmental, the balance of payments, and others (morse & jaffe, 2001). in addition, energy planning is needed, among others, to ensure that the availability of energy is guaranteed because energy is a vital requirement for human life (pierce, 1996; winarno, 2007; and wijaya & ridwan, 2009). thus, a comprehensive plan in which energy is associated with various fields, according to reuter and voss (1990); shan et al. (2012); feng and zhang (2012); cai et al. (2009), will make energy more optimized in its utilization. various energy models have been developed to assist energy planning, and models are both based on econometrics or statistical techniques to make long-term energy demand projections (meier,1993). energy planning can also be done by developing and analyzing energy scenarios, as was done by ghanadan and koomey (2005), shan et al. (2012), and feng and zhang (2012). as for the energy supply strategy, optimization techniques with certain objective functions are widely used (sugiyono, 1995). the use of the markal (market allocation) model will determine the optimal energy supply based on linear programming techniques by considering the choice of available energy resources and technology to meet energy needs (sugiyono & suarna, 2006). based on the optimum results, the number of emissions from energy use can be calculated using the emission coefficient data from each technology. in his study, kleeman (1995) used the demi (demand energy model for indonesia) model to project energy requirements in the form of useful or final energy. this model calculates all energy used by end-use technology but does not cover energy used for mining, energy conversion, auto-generation and losses from energy use. essentially, the energy used is in the form of useful energy. the final energy is used if the useful energy cannot be applied to a particular part. in the concept of useful energy, the energy price is not calculated. it is because useful energy does not depend on the type of final energy it produces. in china, energy planning research conducted by shan et al. (2012) was intended to project energy demand in china for the next 20 years. the initial step in the study was to analyze the existing energy conditions in china, then use the leap model and simulate energy demand and primary energy mix in 2020 and 2030. in this regard, projections employed different scenarios, namely economic development, energy efficiency, and energy structure scenarios. the results showed that the total primary energy demand reached 4840-5070 mtce in 2020 and 5580-5870 mtce in 2030. besides, the share of coal setiartiti regional energy master plan based on low emission scenarios jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 176 in the composition of the primary energy mix decreased, while oil, natural gas, and nonfossil energy increased in their study, feng and zhang (2012) also used the leap model to predict the impact of different development alternatives on future energy demand for energy structures and carbon emissions from the base year 2007-2030, based on three scenarios: the business as usual (bau), based on policy (bp), and low carbon (lc). concerning low carbon and based on policy scenarios, the industrial sector has the greatest potential to reduce energy consumption and carbon gas emissions compared to the bau scenario. on the other hand, ghader et al. (2006) built models and predicted electricity demand in iran. the study was motivated by the effort that energy production and exploitation need to be programmed to realize a stable economy, as important as human resource factors, raw materials, financial sources, and other inputs. in addition, considering the current energy conditions, many countries focus more on limited energy availability. thus, to realize electricity as a source of clean energy, the alignment between supply and demand is a challenge for policymakers in thailand, an energy planning study using the leap model was conducted by wangjiraniran et al. (2011) to examine the impact of changes in economic structure on energy consumption patterns and the effects of greenhouse gases on energy use in two different scenarios. based on the study by wangjiraniran et al. (2011), national energy planning and policy must be adjusted more coherently to the country's economic development and social conditions. the study results also disclosed that energy planning should focus more on using alternative energy to replace petroleum consumption and improve efficiency in the transportation sector. in addition, community-based biofuel production is increasingly being considered to mitigate the impact of unsustainable oil supply in the agricultural sector and narrow the gap between the economy, climate, and energy policies. energy planning studies using the leap model were also conducted by xiandong et al. (2012) by designing three scenarios of china's economic growth and stimulating the level of electrification in china in 2030. the results exposed that the electrification rate of china has the potential for a greater increase in the medium-long term, and there is a rapid change in economic development patterns that can help increase the level of electrification. moreover, an interesting study has been carried out by tao et al. (2011) in the headline for the prospect of low carbon economic development in china. the prediction results based on the scenario become an important reference for the chinese government to develop a low carbon economy. the results showed that the total energy demand based on the three scenarios was 6095 billion tons of standard coal, 5236 billion tons of standard coal, and 6239 billion tons of standard coal in 2050. setiartiti regional energy master plan based on low emission scenarios jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 177 research method research approach estimation of energy demand in central java province was carried out using a demand approach, meaning that energy demand was calculated from energy demand by each energy user sector. the demand approach is complicated and requires more data, but this approach of demand can better describe the actual energy demand and be more detailed in calculating energy demand per usage sector. this research also employed an end-use approach, also known as an engineering model approach, combined with a scenario method. this approach is more detailed even though the calculation uses a simpler function. research assumptions energy demand is divided into five (5) activity sectors: household, commercial, industrial, transportation, and others. in this study, the calculation of energy demand was based on two scenarios, namely business as usual (bau) and energy efficiency (ee) scenarios, consisting of moderate (mod) and optimistic (opt) scenarios. the energy efficiency scenario was developed based on the bau scenario with energy policy interventions regarding energy efficiency and renewable energy. then, energy conservation targets in the form of increasing energy use efficiency for the mod scenario were based on rational targets that could be achieved at a medium cost. whereas in the opt scenario, the energy conservation target was the maximum target that might be achieved in accordance with the existing energy efficiency potential. in addition, the energy efficiency scenario was based on the potential for energy efficiency obtained from the previous research. table 1 potential of energy efficiency in central java province no sector energy efficiency potential (%) 1 household 14 20 2 industry 10 – 25 3 commercial 25 – 30 4 others 25 30 source: rued central java (2009) the lower limit of energy-saving potential was used for the moderate energy efficiency scenario, while the upper limit of the energy-saving potential was employed for the optimistic energy efficiency scenario. for the transportation sector, energy efficiency can be carried out by shifting modes to optimize the use of public transportation to meet the needs of trips in the km-passenger. the target of shifting modes from private to public transportation is to increase the bus mode load factor from 24.34% to 60% in 2030. increasing the bus mode's load mode is done by transferring the use of motorbikes and private passenger cars. the amount of diversion from motorcycles and private passenger cars is 14% and 11% in 2030, respectively. setiartiti regional energy master plan based on low emission scenarios jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 178 moreover, in this research, the renewable energy scenario was based on the renewable energy potential in central java, while the development of renewable energy potentials for the mod and opt scenarios was based on the forum group discussion (fgd) results. then, biogas and biodiesel were used on the demand side to replace some suitable types of energy. it is assumed that biogas can be used to replace part of the demand for lpg, firewood, and coal briquettes in the household sector. the biogas system developed in this study was a household biogas system with 2 heads of cattle. biodiesel was also implemented to replace some of the demand for diesel oil in the commercial, industrial, transportation and other sectors. table 2 renewable energy development for the energy efficiency scenario (mod) no types of renewable energy utilizing targeted renewable energy 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 1 solar 25kwp 250kwp 2000kwp 2.500kwp 3.000kwp 2 water 25kw 50kw 600kw 650kw 750kw 3 wind 20kw 40kw 80kw 120kw 160kw 4 biogas 300 units 1,000 units 2,500 units 4,000 units 5,000 units 5 biodiesel 0 05% solar 1% solar 1.5% solar 2% solar 6 biomass 0 100kw 500kw 750kw 2 mw source: fgd of central java province table 3 development of renewable energy for energy efficiency scenarios (opt) no types of renewable energy utilizing targeted renewable energy 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 1 solar 25kwp 2mwp 5mwp 7.5mwp 10mwp 2 water 25kw 600kw 750kw 1,300kw 1,800kw 3 wind 20kw 50mwp 50mwp 75mwp 100mwp 4 biogas 300 units 1,000 units 2,500 units 4,000 units 5,000 units 5 biodiesel 0 2.5% solar 5% solar 7.5% solar 10% solar 6 biomass 0 10 mw 500kw 750kw 20 mw source: fgd of central java province also, the renewable energy scenarios were based on the regulation of the minister of energy and mineral resources of the republic of indonesia number 32 of 2008, stating that every oil business entity and the direct user is obliged to use pure biofuels in the country, as presented in table 4 and table 5. table 4 target stages percentage of biodiesel use sector 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 transportation pso 2.5% 5% 10% 20% 20% transportation non pso 3% 7% 10% 20% 20% industry & commercial 5% 10% 15% 20% 20% power plants 1% 10% 15% 20% 20% source: ministry of energy and mineral resources of the republic of indonesia setiartiti regional energy master plan based on low emission scenarios jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 179 table 5 target stages percentage of bioethanol use sector 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 transportation pso 3% 5% 10% 15% 20% transportation non pso 7% 10% 12% 15% 20% industry & commercial 7% 10% 12% 15% 20% source: ministry of energy and mineral resources of the republic of indonesia energy demand model energy demand modeling in this research used the final energy approach (final used), where the final energy demand by sector is stated as follows. aggregate energy intensity (et) can be written as a function of energy use by sector (eit) and activity by sector (ait): 𝑒𝑡 = 𝐸𝑡 𝑌𝑡 = ⅀ ( eit yit ) ( 𝑌𝑖𝑡 𝑌𝑡 ) = ⅀ 𝑒𝑖𝑡 . 𝑎𝑖𝑡 (8) in the end-use approach, aggregate energy demand is obtained by summing energy demand at the sector level. thus, the energy demand per sector is designed as follows: 1. household sector energy demand model: 𝐸𝑑ℎ = ∑ 𝐼ℎ 𝑥 (𝐻𝑡−1 4 1 𝑥 𝑔) 𝑥 𝐴𝐼ℎ 𝑥 𝐾ℎ (9) 2. transportation sector energy demand model: 𝐸𝑑𝑇 = ∑ 𝐼𝑇𝑥 (𝑇𝑡−1 6 ℎ=1 𝑥 𝑔) 𝑥 𝐴𝑖 𝑥 𝐾ℎ (10) 3. industrial sector energy demand model: 𝐸𝑑𝐼 = ∑ 𝐼𝐷𝑥 (𝑇𝑡−1 8 ℎ=1 𝑥 𝑔) 𝑥 𝐴𝑖 𝑥 𝐾ℎ (11) 4. commercial sector energy demand model: 𝐸𝑑𝐼 = ∑ 𝐼𝐾 𝑥 (𝑇𝑡−1 6 ℎ=1 𝑥 𝑔) 𝑥 𝐴𝑖 𝑥 𝐾ℎ (12) 5. other sector energy demand model: 𝐸𝑑𝐼 = ∑ 𝐼𝐿 𝑥 (𝑇𝑡−1 3 ℎ=1 𝑥 𝑔) 𝑥 𝐴𝑖 𝑥 𝐾ℎ (13) where ed indicates energy demand indicates energy intensity of the household sector literacy for the ih , it indicates the availability of energy intensity of the transportation sector, id indicates the availability of energy intensity of the industrial sector, ik indicates the availability of energy intensity of the commercial sector, il indicates the availability of energy intensity of other sectors, ai indicates the availability of sectoral activity, kh indicates the availability of number of sub-sectors, g indicates the availability of sectoral growth. setiartiti regional energy master plan based on low emission scenarios jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 180 result and discussion estimated overall final energy demand a series of analyses on energy demand and energy efficiency carried out, in general, illustrated that the simulation of the implementation of energy efficiency programs through the utilization of energy efficiency potential and the development of renewable energy becomes more efficient. road map implementation of conservation programs through the development of renewable energy and the utilization of energy efficiency potential into the simulation projection scenario for energy use showed that overall energy use has been decreasing every year. overall energy demand in central java using bau scenario, moderate energy efficiency, and an optimistic scenario revealed diminishing use. this condition can be seen in table 6. table 6 impact of efficiency potential utilization and renewable energy development on energy use in central java province (thousand sbm) scenarios year growth (%) total energy use 2015 2020 2025 2030 bau 61,608.51 79,949.81 105,000.94 121,890.90 6.65 1,683,091.24 mod 59,410.38 75,040.74 94,412.92 106,758.65 5.45 1,554,163.05 opt 58,252.66 66,511.66 75,441.62 85,401.03 4.72 1,405,829.46 overall, the final energy demand in central java province based on the bau scenario is 1,683,091.24 thousand sbm. based on the moderate and optimistic energy efficiency scenario, energy use decreases by 1,554,163.05 thousand sbm and 1,405,829.46 thousand sbm. it means that the use of the opt scenario reduces energy use by 16.47% compared to the energy demand using the bau scenario. this condition can be seen in figure 1. figure 1 estimated final energy demand for central java province the decrease in total energy use during the projected year through the utilization of energy efficiency potential and renewable energy development programs is in line with the energy mix out-look issued by the ministry of energy and mineral resources of the republic of indonesia in 2011-2030. based on out-look, at the end of 2030, the share of fossil energy will decrease, whereas the role of renewable energy will increase, from 4.7% setiartiti regional energy master plan based on low emission scenarios jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 181 in 2010 to 13.5% in 2030 (see figure 2). from the use of renewable energy, central java province contributes 1.17% to the utilization of renewable energy nationally. as an integrated energy development system, the central java province cannot be separated from the national energy policy. therefore, one basic policy that needs to be emphasized in energy efficiency planning in this region is to support the implementation of national energy policies. figure 2 energy out-look estimated final energy demand by sector by sector, energy use in central java province is the largest consumer, dominated by the transportation sector, with energy use reaching more than 60% of overall final energy. in comparison, the household sector is the second largest consumer at 20.67% of final energy overall. by transportation type, two-wheeled modes and private cars dominate energy use, while by income groups in the household sector, the middle-income group is the largest consumer, accounting for 43.34% of the overall final energy demand. this condition can be understood because the number of middle-class households is the largest of the total number of households. it can be seen in figure 3 and figure 4. the final energy estimation by sector in central java province implies that the government must be able to provide energy needs to guarantee energy supply in this region. figure 3 bau final energy demand by sector 0 20 40 60 80 100 t h o u sa n d b o e household commercial industrial transportation other setiartiti regional energy master plan based on low emission scenarios jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 182 figure 4 mod and pot final energy demand by sector estimated final energy demand by energy types the final energy demand by energy type for all activity sectors under the bau scenario is shown in figure 5. the demand for premium energy types in central java province is the biggest energy use during the projection period. in 2030, premium demand will be 33,342.88 thousand sbm or 39.04% of the total energy demand. the use of diesel oil or automotive diesel oil (ado) will be a fuel energy type with the second largest use after premium, reaching 25,638.15 thousand sbm or 30% of the total final energy use. then, kerosene will be the third-largest type of energy usage, reaching 7,942.88 thousand sbm, or 9.3% of the total final energy in 2030. under the mod and opt energy efficiency scenarios, the premium will also be the biggest energy use during the projection period, reaching 33,342.88 thousand sbm or 39.04% of the total final energy demand. the use of electricity during the projection year is also still quite large due to the large population and many middle-class industries in this province. in detail, this condition can be seen in figure 6. as the price of kerosene is released through the market mechanism and converted to lpg, the use of firewood becomes greater during the projected year. this condition indicates that not all communities targeted by the government to use lpg use this energy. it is because the community feels less familiar with the use of gas stoves as cooking tools, and many industries or household businesses are still loyal to using firewood for cooking. figure 5 bau final energy demand by energy types 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 mod mod mod mod mod mod mod mod mod mod mod mod mod mod mod mod mod 20142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030 t h o u sa n d b o e household commercial industrial transportation other 0 50 100 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 t h o u sa n d b o e electricity gasoline avtur kerosene diesel fuel oil fuel lpg coal coal briquette wood biogas diesel oil offgrid electricity setiartiti regional energy master plan based on low emission scenarios jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 183 figure 6 mod and pot final energy demand by energy types implications of the final energy estimates per sector in central java province are then to ensure energy supply in this region, and the government must be able to provide energy needs, as shown in the following table 7. table 7 energy needs in 2030 no central java province energy types energy needs 1 electricity (mwh) 12,837,719.22 2 oil/premium (kl) 8,087,759.69 3 lpg (ton) 1,050,735.52 4 coal (ton) 459,523.92 5 coal briquettes (ton) 134,101.24 energy use efficiency conservation actions and programs for energy use in accordance with the scenarios used, namely efficiency measures by utilizing existing potential energy efficiency, conservation, and diversification through the development of renewable energy, have resulted in more efficient use of energy. energy use efficiency is indicated by the elasticity level of energy use to economic value added. energy elasticity below 1.0 will be achieved if the available energy has been used productively. high energy efficiency figures indicate that energy use is inefficient or wasteful. this condition also indicates the low competitiveness of the industry due to energy inefficiencies that have an impact on high production costs. energy efficiency in central java province can be seen in figure 7. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 mod mod mod mod mod mod mod mod mod mod mod mod mod mod mod mod mod 20142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030 t h o u sa n d b o e electricity gasoline avtur kerosene diesel fuel oil fuel lpg coal coal briquette wood biogas diesel oil biodiesel bioetanol biofuel offgrid electricity setiartiti regional energy master plan based on low emission scenarios jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 184 figure 7 energy use efficiency in central java province figure 7 confirms energy efficiency in the central java province by using the bau scenario until the end of the year that the projection is still greater than 1 (e> 1), both for electricity and fuel energy. this condition illustrates that energy use in the central java province has not been efficient or wasteful because increasing 1% economic growth requires greater amounts of energy. meanwhile, based on energy efficiency scenarios, both moderate and optimistic, by including aspects of energy conservation policies as stated above, energy efficiency in central java province until the end of the year is projected to be less than 1 (e <1), both for electricity and oil. the efficiency of energy use based on the mod scenario started to be achieved in 2021 until the end of the projection year, whereas based on the opt scenario, energy efficiency was achieved in 2017. it signifies that the central java province can optimize energy use to be more efficient with the various implementation of conservation programs. the implication is that increasing economic growth by 1% will only require less energy, and the available energy will be used productively. conclusion based on the projected final energy demand per sector, in 2030, the use of energy in the central java province region will increase by an average of 5.6% per year, with the overall final energy demand of 1,683,091.24 thousand sbm, 1,554,163 thousand sbm, and 1,405,829.46 thousand sbm for each bau, mod, and opt scenarios. the decline in overall energy use based on the scenarios developed will occur due to the utilization of energy efficiency potentials and the development of renewable energy potentials in the roadmap of the 5-year renewable energy development program up to 2030. the transportation sector still dominates energy demand in central java, with a percentage of use of more than 60% of the overall final energy demand. the household sector is the second largest consumer at 20.67%. under the bau scenario, energy use in central java during the projection year will still be inefficient (e> 1). this condition indicates the low economic sector competitiveness due to energy inefficiency that will impact high production costs. energy use in the central java province began to achieve efficiency in 2021 and 2017, respectively, based on moderate and optimistic scenarios. it indicates the need for energy efficiency programs setiartiti regional energy master plan based on low emission scenarios jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 185 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(2008). china's global search for energy security: cooperation and competition in the asia-pacific. journal of contemporary china, 55, 207-227. https://doi.org/10.1080/10670560701809460 https://www.iaee.org/proceedings/article/2248 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egypro.2011.09.004 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egypro.2011.12.1114 https://doi.org/10.1080/10670560701809460 studi efektivitas pelayanan publik di kecamatan kejaksan kota cirebon jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 1, april 2016, hlm. 31-45 doi: 10.18196/jesp.17.1.3496 analisis keuangan inklusif: studi kasus daerah istimewa yogyakarta atikah, ahmad ma’ruf fakultas ekonomi, universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta jalan lingkar selatan, tamantirto, kasihan, bantul, yogyakarta 55183 e-mail korespondensi: atikahuntet@yahoo.co.id naskah diterima: november 2015; disetujui: maret 2016 abstract: this study aims to analyze of financial inclusion in special region of yogyakarta. financial inclusion is a means to promote financial sector especially for easy banking services and financial access for people. the level of financial inclusion each district in special region of yogyakarta will be measured by using the index of financial inclusion. factors that affecting of financial inclusion that is grdp, literacy and road ratio, that will be analyze using a panel regression with cross section of 5 districts/cities from 20042013. the results show that the level of financial inclusion in special region of yogyakarta is classified as low, indicated by the value of financial inclusion index less than 0.3. almost all districts/cities in special region of yogyakarta have low level of financial inclusion, except yogyakarta city. grdp positively affect the level of financial inclusion in special region of yogyakarta. while the literacy rate and the road ratio negative affect of financial inclusion in special region of yogyakarta. keywords: financial inclusion, grdp, literacy, road ratio, data panels jel classification: f43, p45 abstrak: penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis keuangan inklusif di daerah istimewa yogyakarta. keuangan inklusif merupakan salah satu cara untuk memasyarakatkan sektor keuangan khususnya mempermudah layanan perbankan dan akses keuangan bagi masyarakat. tingkat keuangan inklusif masing-masing kabupaten/kota di daerah istimewa yogyakarta akan dihitung dengan menggunakan indeks keuangan inklusif. faktor yang digunakan dalam mempengaruhi keuangan inklusif antara lain pdrb, angka melek huruf dan rasio jalan yang akan dianalisis menggunakan data panel dengan cross section 5 kabupaten/kota dan tahun dasar analisis 2004-2013. hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa tingkat keuangan inklusif di daerah istimewa yogyakarta tergolong rendah, yang ditunjukkan dengan nilai indeks keuangan inklusif kurang dari 0,3. hampir seluruh kabupaten/kota di daerah istimewa yogyakarta memiliki tingkat keuangan inklusif rendah, kecuali kota yogyakartakarta. pdrb berpengaruh positif terhadap keuangan inklusif di daerah istimewa yogyakarta. sedangkan angka melek huruf dan rasio jalan berpengaruh negatif terhadap keuangan inklusif di daerah istimewa yogyakarta. kata kunci: keuangan inklusif, pdrb, melek huruf, rasio jalan, data panel klasifikasi jel: f43, p45 mailto:atikahuntet@yahoo.co.id jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 1, april 2016: 31-45 32 pendahuluan indonesia merupakan negara dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi tinggi, bahkan mendapat apresiasi dari dunia internasional karena mendapat peringkat ke 3 sebagai negara yang tahan terhadap krisis moneter 2008 (setiawan, 2015). pertumbuhan ekonomi yang berkualitas sejatinya merupakan pertumbuhan yang mampu menciptakan pengentasan kemiskinan, memperluas kesempatan kerja dan pemerataan pendapatan. namun pertumbuhan ekonomi indonesia yang tinggi ini justru diikuti dengan meningkatnya kondisi pengangguran dan kemiskinan. sebagaimana salah satu tujuan dari millenium development goal (mdg) bahwa pada tahun 2015 penduduk miskin di dunia pada umumnya dan indonesia berkurang menjadi setengahnya (sanjaya, 2014). namun demikian fakta yang ada menunjukkan bahwa penurunan jumlah penduduk miskin di indonesia sampai dengan tahun 2013 masih belum seperti yang diharapkan. laju pertumbuhan perekonomian indonesia terus meningkat dari 4,9 persen pada tahun 2003 menjadi lebih dari 5,7 persen pada tahun 2013. selain pertumbuhan ekonomi yang terus meningkat, perubahan angka kemiskinan yang ditunjukan oleh besarnya tingkat penduduk miskin di indonesia juga menunjukan hal yang positif. sepanjang tahun 2003 sampai dengan 2013 persentase jumlah penduduk miskin di indonesia terus berkurang dari 17,42 persen menjadi 11,47 persen (bps, 2015). sementara itu pada saat yang sama pertumbuhan ekonomi di indonesia ternyata menimbulkan kesenjangan pendapatan yang tinggi. angka rasio gini pada tahun 2012 mencapai 0,410 dan meningkat menjadi 0,413 pada tahun 2013, angka ini merupakan angka yang cukup tinggi dalam sepuluh tahun terakhir. kedua fakta diatas menunjukkan adanya sesuatu yang perlu mendapatkan perhatian yang lebih terkait dengan proses dan pelaksanaan pembangunan ekonomi di indonesia. kondisi ini juga menunjukkan bahwa kesejahteraan masyarakat indonesia khususnya dalam hal ekonomi masih rendah. menurut wibowo (2014) dalam setiawan (2015) bahwa salah satu penyebab kurangnya kesejahteraan masyarakat indonesia adalah tingkat literasi keuangan masyarakat indonesia yang sangat rendah. tingkat literasi keuangan masyarakat indonesia masih rendah dibandingkan dengan negara lainnya seperti singapura, malaysia, dan thailand. tingkat literasi keuangan masyarakat malaysia mencapai 66 persen, singapura mencapai 98 persen, sedangkan thailand mencapai angka 73 persen, sementara indonesia masih pada angka 28 persen. salah satu faktor penyebab rendahnya literasi keuangan tersebut adalah kondisi geografis indonesia yang pada umumya merupakan daerah kepulauan dan sekitar 60 persen masyarakat berada pada daerah pedesaan sehingga mengahambat akses terhadap layanan jasa keuangan. untuk mengatasi keterbatasan akses layanan jasa keuangan tersebut, maka muncul suatu program perluasan akses layanan keuangan yang disebut dengan keuangan inklusif. keuangan inklusif mempromosikan akses dan penggunaan layanan keuangan berkualitas tinggi secara global, khususnya di antara orangorang miskin (steelyana, 2013). keuangan inklusif menjadi salah satu agenda penting dalam dunia internasional. forum internasioanl seperti g20, apec, afi, oecd, dan asean secara intensif melakukan pembahasan mengenai keuangan inklusif. keuangan inklusif juga telah menjadi prioritas dari pada pemerintah indonesia. pada bulan juli 2012, bank indonesia bekerjasama dengan sekretariat wakil presiden-tim nasional pencapaian penanggulangan kemiskinan (tnp2k) dan badan kebijakan fiskalkementerian keuangan mengeluarkan strategi nasional keuangan inklusif. salah satu tujuan dari strategi tersebut adalah menjadikan strategi nasional keuangan inklusif sebagai bagian dari strategi besar pembangunan ekonomi, penanggulangan kemiskinan, pemerataan pendapatan dan stabilitas sistem keuangan. keuangan yang semakin inklusif dapat memberikan akses terhadap jasa keuangan yang lebih luas bagi setiap penduduk, terutama kelompok miskin dan menengah yang memiliki keterbatasan akses terhadap layanan keuangan. hasil penelitian sanjaya (2014) menjelaskan bahwa keuangan inklusi di indonesia dikategorikan rendah. menurut analisis keuangan inklusif: studi kasus daerah istimewa yogyakarta (atikah, ahmad ma’ruf) 33 ummah (2015) rata-rata indeks keuangan inklusif antar provinsi di indonesia berkisar antara 0,1-0,33 kecuali provinsi jakarta yang tergolong tinggi yang mencapai 0,8. daerah istimewa yogyakarta masuk dalam tingkat inklusi rendah bersama dengan 31 provinsi lainnya. hal tersebut dikarenakan masyarakat miskin belum sepenuhnya bersentuhan dengan sektor keuangan formal atau partisipasi masyarakat yang masih rendah terhadap jasa keuangan formal. hal ini dapat dilihat dari tiga sisi yaitu aksesabilitas, ketersediaan dan penggunaan. keuangan inklusif di pengaruhi berbagai macam faktor, diantaranya adalah pdrb, angka melek huruf dan rasio jalan. pdrb merupakan nilai akhir pasar dari barang dan jasa akhir yang dihasilkan dari suatu perekonomian selama kurun waktu tertentu dan biasanya 1 tahun. pdrb dihitung melalui 3 pendekatan yaitu pendekatan pengeluaran, produksi dan pendapatan. angka melek huruf mencerminkan proporsi penduduk yang bisa membaca dan menulis huruf pada suatu daerah tanpa perlu mengerti apa yang ditulis dan dibaca. jalan sebagai salah satu infrastruktur fisik yang dibutuhkan dalam pembangunan dan merupakan salah satu transportasi darat yang memegang peranan penting dalam sektor perhubungan terutama untuk menunjang pertumbuhan ekonomi dan mengembangkan potensi daerah. irmawati dan setyani (2013) meneliti tentang penerapan model keuangan inklusif pada umkm berbasis pedesaan di kabupaten klaten. metode yang digunakandalam penelitian ini yaitu analisis deskriptif dan analisis swot. hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa model keuangan inklusif untuk umkm batik di kabupaten klaten yaitu masuknya lembaga keuangan dalam segi permodalan yaitu berbentuk kredit bunga rendah dan kur, yang selanjutnya dilakukan pendampingan dari lembaga keuangan. sedangkan dari segi pemasaran, diperlukan adanya pendampingan intensif, pengikutsertaan pameran batik serta iklan. i made sanjaya (2014) melakukan penelitian tentang keuangan inklusif dan pertumbuhan inklusif sebagai strategi pengentasan kemiskinan di indonesia periode 2007-2010. metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini menggunakan konsep fungsi peluang sosial (social opportunity function) yang hampir sama dengan fungsi kesejahteraan sosial untuk model pembentukan indeks pertumbuhan inklusif. sedangkan untuk menganalisis peran keuangan inklusif terhadap pertumbuhan inklusif di indonesia digunakan model panel data. dalam penelitian ini indeks pertumbuhan inklusif (ipi) digunakan sebagai variabel dependen, sedangkan variabel independennya menggunakan indeks keuangan inklusif (iik), indeks harga konsumen (ihk), rasio penyaluran kredit mikro dan menengah terhadap pdrb dan indeks pembangunan manusia. hasil dari penelitian ini menyimpulkan bahwa partisipasi seluruh masyarakat dalam proses pertumbuhan menjadi bagian dari pertumbuhan inklusif yang multidimensi. penyediaan akses layanan dan jasa-jasa sektor keuangan yang terjangkau bagi masyarakat miskin secara langsung membuat kelompok masyarakat miskin ikut berpartisipasi dan menjadi agen pertumbuhan ekonomi sehingga menciptakan pertumbuhan yang inklusif yang dalam jangka panjang dapat mengurangi tingkat kemiskinan di indonesia. moh. agung setiawan (2015) menganalisis keterkaitan keuangan inklusif terhadap perilaku keuangan personal masyarakat di wilayah kota dan kabupaten provinsi jawa timur. moetode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah regresi linear sederhana dengan menggunakan aplikasi statistical product and service solution (spss). adapun variabel yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah indeks keuangan inklusif sebagai variabel bebas dan perilaku keuangan personal sebagai variabel terikat. untuk menghitung indeks keuangan inklusif digunakan beberapa indikator perbankan yaitu penetrasi perbankan, aksesibilitas jasa keuangan, dan penggunaan rekening perbankan. untuk mengukur perilaku keuangan personal digunakan indikator membuat anggaran, pendanaan, alokasi anggaran, pengeluaran dan evaluasi penggunaan uang dengan menggunakan sekala likert. hasil dari penelitian ini diketahui bahwa indeks keuangan inklusif masing-masing kota dan kabupaten di provinsi jawa timur berbedabeda. seluruh wilayah kota mayoritas memiliki jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 1, april 2016: 31-45 34 indeks keuangan inklusif yang tinggi, sedangkan wilayah kabupaten memiliki indeks keuangan inklusif yang rendah. hasil penelitian ini juga membuktikan bahwa indeks keuangan inklusif berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap perilaku keuangan personal. evi steelyana (2013) melakukan penelitian tentang peran keuangan inklusif terhadap pengusaha umkm perempuan di indonesia.. penelitian menggunakan metode deskripsi kuantitatif. hasil dari penelitian ini menyimpulkan agar keuangan inklusif dapat dijalankan secara menyeluruh di indonesia dan dapat berdampak secara signifikan terhadap pengusaha umkm, khususnya bagi para pengusaha perempuan. bintan badriatul ummah (2015) menganalisis keuangan inklusif dan pemerataan pendapatan di indonesia. metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini menggunakan data panel (pooling data). adapun variabel yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah indeks keuangan inklusif sebagai variabel dependen dan variabel independen menggunakan faktor sosial ekonomi (pdrb, pengangguran, melek huruf, rasio gini) serta infrastruktur (rasio jalan, internet dan ponsel). hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa tingkat keuangan inklusif di indonesia masih tergolong rendah, yang ditunjukkan dengan nilai indeks keuangan inklusif kurang dari 0,3. hampir seluruh provinsi di indonesia memiliki tingkat keuangan inklusif rendah, kecuali jakarta. dari pendekatan infrastruktur, jumlah pengguna telepon seluler dan internet mempengaruhi positif tingkat keuangan inklusif di indonesia. ketimpangan pendapatan dengan keuangan inklusif memiliki hubungan satu arah dimana ketimpangan pendapatan mempengaruhi keuangan inklusif di indonesia tetapi tidak sebaliknya. job pristine migap, dkk (2015) melakukan penelitian tentang keuangan inklusif untuk pertumbuhan inklusif menurut perspektif nigeria. metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah analisa deskriptif. variabel yang digunakan yaitu indeks pertumbuhan inklusif dan indikator-indikator keuangan inklusif. hasil yang diperoleh dari penelitian ini bahwa keuangan inklusif diperlukan untuk pertumbuhan inklusif di nigeria, peningkatan penyebaran mobile banking dan layanan internet oleh lembaga keuangan meningkatkan akses terhadap perbankan dan layanan jasa keuangan lainnya begitu pula dengan partisipasi aktif dari lembaga pendidikan guna meningkatkan literasi keuangan. cletus .o. akenbor (ph.d) (2015) menganalisis keuangan inklusif dan jebakan kemiskinan di nigeria. adapun metode yang digunakan yaitu analisis koefisien korelasi pearson dan regresi berganda dengan spss. variabel yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini berupa poverty trap yang dihitung dengan gnp per kapita sebagai variabel dependen dan akses ke layanan keuangan, penggunaan jasa keuangan dan kualitas jasa keuangan sebagai variabel independennya. hasil dari penelitian ini disimpulkan bahwa penggunaan dan kualitas layanan keuangan memiliki hubungan yang signifikan dengan kemiskinan, sementara itu akses ke layanan keuangan tidak memiliki hubungan yang signifikan dengan kemiskinan di nigeria. mandira sarma (2012) melakukan penelitian mengenai indeks keuangan inklusif guna mengukur inklusifitas sektor keuangan yang menggunakan data dari 94 negara dengan tahun perhitungan 2004-2010. metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian di analisis dengan data panel. hasil dalam penelitian tersebut menyebutkan bahwa inkdeks keuangan inklusif dapat digunakan untuk membandingkan tingkat keuangan inklusif di negara yang berbeda dan untuk memantau kemajuan ekonomi sehubungan dengan keuangan inklusif dari waktu ke waktu. negara yang menerima pendapatan nasional rendah dan menengah ke bawah memiliki indeks keuangan inklusif rendah. indeks keuangan inklusif menengah atau sedang didominasi oleh negara dengan pendapatan nasional menengah ke atas dan negara yang memiliki pendapatan tinggi, sedangkan indeks keuangan inklusif tinggi didominasi oleh negara yang berpendapatan tinggi pula. dengan demikian bahwa keuangan inklusif dan pendapatan nasional cenderung bergerak kearah yang sama meskipun ada beberapa perbedaan. tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk menjawab beberapa permasalahan, yaitu: 1. mengetahui tingkat keuangan inklusif di analisis keuangan inklusif: studi kasus daerah istimewa yogyakarta (atikah, ahmad ma’ruf) 35 daerah istimewa yogyakarta. 2. mengetahui pengaruh produk domestik regional bruto terhadap keuangan inklusif di daerah istimewa yogyakarta. 3. mengetahui pengaruh angka melek huruf terhadap keuangan inklusif di daerah istimewa yogyakarta. 4. mengetahui pengaruh rasio jalan terhadap keuangan inklusif di daerah istimewa yogyakarta. metode penelitian jenis dan sumber data jenis data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data sekunder berupa data time series dan cross section atau lebih dikenal dengan istilah pooling data atau data panel. data tersebut bersumber dari bank indonesia, badan pusat statistik, dan berbagai sumber yang terkait. periode analisis dalam penelitian ini adalah tahun 2004-2013 dengan cross section dari 4 kabupaten 1 kota di daerah istimewa yogyakarta teknik pengumpulan data teknik pengumpulan data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini berupa studi kepustakaan atau library research yaitu penelitian yang bahan atau materinya diambil melalui metode kepustakaan berupa tulisan-tulisan artikel ilmiah, majalah, berita, jurnal, penelitian ilmiah lainnya yang memiliki hubungan dengan topik penelitian yang diteliti. indeks keuangan inklusif indeks keuangan inklusif merupakan ukuran untuk tingkat keuangan inklusif. indeks keuangan inklusif akan dipergunakan untuk mengukur tingkat keuangan inklusif di 4 kabupaten dan 1 kota madya di daerah istimewa yogyakarta dari tahun 2004 sampai dengan tahun 2013. perhitungan indeks keuangan inklusif dalam penelitian ini mengikuti konsep perhitungan yang telah dilakukan oleh sarma (2012), sanjaya (2014) dan ummah (2015). pengukuran indeks keuangan inklusif mencakup tiga dimensi yaitu dimensi penetrasi perbankan, ketersediaan jasa perbankan dan penggunaan jasa perbankan. untuk mengetahui indeks dari setiap dimensi (di), dapat dihitung dengan menggunakan persamaan berikut: d_i=w_i (a_i-m_i)/(m_i-m_i ) ; i=1,2,3 ......... (1) dimana: di = dimensi ke-i (d1= penetrasi, d2 = ketersediaan, d3 = penggunaan) wi = bobot yang diberikan kepada dimensi kei, 0 ≤ w_i ≤ 1 ai = nilai aktual dari peubah i mi = nilai maksimum (batas atas) dari peubah i mi = nilai minimum (batas bawah) dari peubah i sebagaimana dalam penjelasan sebelumnya, dimensi keuangan inklusif yang diukur terdiri dari tiga dimensi. dimensi yang pertama adalah dimensi penetrasi perbankan yang menggambarkan banyaknya pengguna jasa perbankan. dimensi kedua adalah ketersediaan jasa perbankan yang menggambarkan jangkauan perbankan kepada masyarakat. dimensi terakhir adalah kegunaan jasa perbankan yang menggambarkan manfaat jasa perbankan yang diterima masyarakat. untuk mengukur ketiga dimensi tersebut, berikut indikator yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini dirangkum dalam table 1. persamaan (1) akan menghasilkan nilai 0 ≤ d_i ≤ 1. semakin tinggi nilai di maka semakin tinggi pula perolehan daerah pada dimensi i. apabila terdapat tiga dimensi dari keuangan inklusif yang dihitung, yaitu 1 untuk penetrasi, 2 untuk ketersediaan dan 3 untuk penggunaan, maka perolehan suatu daerah dari dimensi tersebut diinterpretasikan dengan titik x = (d1, d2, d3) pada ruang 3-dimensi (gambar 3.1). dalam ruang 3-dimensi, titik o = (0,0,0) menunjukkan titik kondisi keuangan inklusif yang buruk, sedangkan titik w = (w1, w2, w3) menunjukkan kondisi keungan inklusif yang ideal dari setiap dimensi. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 1, april 2016: 31-45 36 letak titik x, o, dan w merupakan faktor penting dalam mengukur tingkat keuangan inklusif. semakin besar jarak antara titik o dengan titik x, semakin tinggi pula tingkat keuangan inklusif. semakin kecil jarak antara titik x dengan titik w, semakin tinggi tingkat keuangan inklusif. kedua jarak tersebut dinormalisasi dengan jarak antara w dan o agar nilainya antara 0 dan 1. oleh karena itu, nilai indeks keuangan inklusif akan berada antara 0 dan 1. semakin tinggi nilai indeks maka sistem keuangan semakin inklusif. indeks keuangan inklusif yang digambarkan dalam ruang tiga dimensi dapat dilihat pada gambar dibawah ini: jarak antara titik o dengan titik x dilambangkan dengan x1, yaitu: x_1=√(〖d_1〗^2+〖d_2〗^2+〖d_3〗^2)/√(〖w_1〗^2 +〖w_2〗^2+〖w_3〗^2 ) ........................................ (2) jarak antara titik x dengan titik w dilambangkan dengan x2, yaitu: x_2=1-√((〖w_1-d_1)〗^2+〖(w_2-d_2)〗^2+〖(w_3d_3)〗^2 )/√(〖w_1〗^2+〖w_2〗^2+〖w_3〗^2 ) ..... (3) tabel 1. indikator perhitungan indeks keuangan inklusif dimensi indikator bobot batas bawah (mi) batas atas (mi) penetrasi perbankan (d1) jumlah rekening deposit dibagi jumlah populasi dewasa 1 0 5,008613005 ketersediaan jasa perbankan (d2) jumlah kantor cabang perbankan dibagi jumlah populasi dewasa 1 0 0,0001356253 kegunaan (d3) proporsi kredit dan tabungan terhadap pdrb 1 0 6,538161535 sumber: sarma, 2012 (dengan penyesuaian) gambar 1. grafik tiga dimensi indeks keuangan inklusif analisis keuangan inklusif: studi kasus daerah istimewa yogyakarta (atikah, ahmad ma’ruf) 37 maka nilai indeks keuangan inklusif adalah rata-rata keduanya, yaitu: iki = 1/2 [x1+x2] ................................................. (4) indeks dari keuangan inklusif dari masingmasing daerah dapat dihitung dengan: iki=1/2 [√(d_1^2+d_2^2+d_3^2 )/√3+(1-√((1d_1 )^2+(〖1-d_2)〗^2+(1-d_3 )^2 )/√3)] ............. (5) nilai indeks keuangan inklusif berada antara 0 dan 1. nilaik iki=1 menunjukkan bahwa daerah tersebut memilik kondisi keuangan inklusif terbaik di antara daerah yang lain. sedangkan nilai iki = 0 menunjukkan daerah tersebut memiliki kondisi keuangan inklusif paling buruk. tingkat keuangan inklusf semakin baik jika nilai indeks keuangan inklusif mendekati 1. sarma (2012) menyebutkan bahwa tingkat indeks keuangan inklusif disebut tinggi apabila 0,6 < iki ≤ 1, tingkat keuangan inklusif sedang apabila nilai indeks keuangan inklusif 0,3 ≤ iki ≤ 0,6 dan tingkat keuangan inklusif rendah apabila nilai indeks < 0,3. uji kualitas data untuk menguji kualitas data dalam penelitian ini menggunakan uji asumsi klasik. mengacu pada basuki dan yuliadi (2015a: 72) bahwa pada data panel tidak semua uji asumsi klasik yang ada pada metode ols dipakai, yang diperlukan hanya multikolinieritas dan heteroskedastisitas. oleh karena itu, untuk menguji kualitas data dalam penelitian ini digunakan uji multikoleniaritas dan uji heteroskedatisitas. uji hipotesis dan anlisis data menurut agus widarjono (2009) dalam basuki dan yuliadi (2015a: 54) penggunaan data panel dalam sebuah observasi mempunyai beberapa keuntungan yang dapat diperoleh. pertama, data panel yang merupakan gabungan dua data, yaitu time series dan cross section yang mampu menyediakan data lebih banyak sehingga akan lebih menghasilkan degree of freedom yang lebih besar. kedua, menggabungkan informasi dari data time series dan cross section dapat mengatasi masalah yang timbul ketika ada masalah penghilangan variabel (omitted-variabel). meskipun ada beberapa keuntungan yang diperoleh dengan menggunakan data panel, metode ini juga memiliki keterbatasan seperti masalah dalam desain survei panel (cakupan, non-response, recall, frekuensi dan waktu), distorsi kesalah pengamatan yang biasanya terjadi karena ketidaksesuaian respon, masalah selektivitas (self-selectivity, non-response, attrition) dan cross section dependence. menurut basuki dan yuliadi (2015b: 136), dalam metode estimasi model regresi dengan menggunakan data panel dapat dilakukan melalui tiga pendekatan, antara lain model common effect, fixed effect dan random effect. secara umum model regresi data panel adalah sebagai berikut: y = α + b_1 x_1 it + b_2 x_2 it +b_3 x_3 it+ e .... (6) dimana: y = variabel dependen α = konsanta x = variabel independen (1,2,3) b (1,2,3) = koefisien regresi masing-masing variable independen e = error term t = waktu i = daerah pemilihan model yang digunakan dalam penelitian dilakukan berdasarkan pertimbangan statistik. hal ini perlu dilakukan dengan tujuan untuk memperoleh dugaan yang tepat dan efisien. pertimbangan statistik yang dimaksud adalah: chow test, hausman test, dan lm test. chow test beberapa literatur menyebutnya dengan uji f-statistik yang digunakan untuk memilih model apakah menggunakan model common effect atau fixed effect. hal ini dilakukan karena asumsi bahwa setiap unit cross-section memiliki prilaku yang sama adalah tidak realistis karena sangat besar kemungkinan setiap unit cross-section memiliki prilaku yang berbeda. chow-test dilakukan dengan hipotesa statistik sebagai berikut: h0: common effect model atau pooled ols h1: fixed effect model jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 1, april 2016: 31-45 38 hausman test digunakan sebagai dasar pertimbangan dalam penentuan penggunaan model fixed effect atau random effect. penggunaan model fixed effect memiliki kelemahan yaitu hilangnya derajat bebas dengan menggunakan variabel dummy, namun demikian penggunaan model random effect juga harus memperhatikan kebebasan pelanggaran asumsi dari setiap komponen galat. hausman-test dilakukan dengan hipotesa statistik sebagai berikut: h0: model random effect h1: model fixed effect lm test the breusch-pagan lm test (lm-test) digunakan sebagai pertimbangan statistik dalam memilih model random effect atau common effect. hipotesis statistik yang digunakan adalah sebagai berikut: h0: model common effect h1: model random effect dasar penolakan hipotesis statistik h0 adalah dengan menggunakan nilai statistik lm yang mengikuti distribusi chi-square. statistik lm dihitung dengan menggunakan residual ordinary least square (ols) yang diperoleh dari hasil estimasi model pooled. setelah mendapatkan model terbaik maka untuk menganalisis model dalam penelitian digunakan uji statistik. uji statistik dalam meliputi uji t-statistik (uji signifikan parameter individual), uji f-statistik (uji signifikansi bersama-sama) dan koefisen determinasi (r square). hasil dan pembahasan uji kualitas data berdasarkan hasil uji multikoleniaritas pada penelitian ini, disimpulkan bahwa terdapat multikoleniaritas. dimana terdapat koefisien korelasi variabel independen > 0,85, sehingga model ini termasuk modal yang kurang bagus karena terdapat korelasi antara variabel independennya. syarat model yang baik adalah model yang bebas dari multikoleniaritas. penyembuhan multikoleniaritas dapat dilakukan dengan menambah atau mengurangi sampel, namun mengurangi satu atau lebih variabel kemungkinan akan membuat model semakin tidak bagus (hermanto dan saptutyingsih, 2002). begitu pula dengan menambah sampel. sehingga dalam penelitian ini tetap dibiarkan adanya multikoleniaritas. hasil uji heterosedastisitas menunjukkan bahwa model ini bebas dari permasalahan varians dari setiap gangguan atau residualnya konstan. hasil uji heteroskedastisitas dapat dilihat pada tabel berikut: tabel 2. hasil uji heteroskedastisitas dengan uji park variable coefficient std. error t-statistic prob. c -8.124117 10.20577 -0.796032 0.4301 x1 2.16e-07 2.07e-07 1.043250 0.3023 x2 -0.005144 0.122031 -0.042154 0.9666 x3 0.325307 0.208620 1.559331 0.1258 sumber: data diolah dari tabel diats dapai dilihat bahwa nilai probabilitas lebih besar dari α = 0,05. sehingga dapat disimpulkan bahwa dalam penelitian ini tidak terdapat heteroskedastisitas dengan kata lain model ini bebas dari heteroskedastisitas. hasil penelitian berdasarkan pemilihan models regresi, maka model regresi yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah model fixed effect. pemilihan model yang digunakan dalam penelitian dilakukan berdasarkan pertimbangan statistik. hal ini perlu dilakukan dengan tujuan untuk memperoleh dugaan yang tepat dan efisien. berikut hasil pemilihan model regresi data panel: chow test pengujian f statistik (uji chow) dilakukan dengan melihat hasil uji likelihood ratio. dalam analisis keuangan inklusif: studi kasus daerah istimewa yogyakarta (atikah, ahmad ma’ruf) 39 pengujian ini, yang diperhatikan adalah probabilitas dari cross section f. apabila nilai probabilitas untuk cross section f > 0,05 (ditentukan di awal sebagai tingkat signifikansi atau alpha) maka h0 diterima dan h1 ditolak. berdasarkan hipotesis diatas maka dapat disimpulkan bahwa model yang terpilih adalah common effect, tetapi apabila probabilias cross section f < 0,05 maka model yang terpilih adalah fixed effect. tabel 3. hasil uji likelihood ratio effects test statistic d.f. prob. cross-section f 18.285114 (4,42) 0.0000 cross-section chisquare 50.424156 4 0.0000 sumber: data diolah berdasarkan tebel di atas, dapat diketahui bahwa nilai probabilitas cross-section f sebesar 0,0000 yang nilainya < 0,05 sehingga dapat disimpulkan bahwa model fixed effect lebih tepat digunakan dalam penelitian ini disbanding dengan model common effect. hausman test statistik uji hausman mengikuti distribusi statistik chi-squares dengan derajat kebebasan (df) sebesar jumlah variabel bebas. apabila nilai statistik hausman lebih besar dari nilai kritis chi-squares maka h0 ditolak dan otomatis h1 diterima yang artinya model yang tepat untuk regresi data panel adalah model fixed effect. sebaliknya, apabila nilai statistik hausman lebih kecil dari nilai kritis chi-squares maka h0 diterima dan otomatis h1 ditolak yang artinya model yang tepat untuk regresi data panel adalah model random effect. berikut hasil uji hausman: tabel 4. hasil uji hausman test summary chi-sq. statistic chi-sq. d.f. prob. cross-section random 33.493415 3 0.0000 sumber: data diolah dari di atas dapat di ketahui nilai probabilitas cross section random. apabila nilainya > 0,05 maka model yang terpilih adalah random effect, tapi apabila niainya < 0,05 maka model yang terpilih adalah fixed effect. pada tabel diatas terlihat bahwa nilai prob. cross-section random sebesar 0,0000 yang mana nilainya < 0,05 sehingga dapat disimpulkan bahwa model fixed effect lebih tepat dibandingkan dengan model random effect digunakan dalam penelitian ini. dari dua uji pemilihan model diatas dapat disimpulkan bahwa dalam penelitian ini model fixed effect lebih baik dibandingkan dengan model random effect dan common effect, tanpa peneliti harus melakukan pengujian selanjutnya (lm tes). estimasi model data panel berdasarkan pemilihan moel terbaik yang telah dilakukan sebelumnya maka model yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini fixed effect model. dapat diketahui bahwa masing-masing kabupaten/kota memberikan efek yang berbeda terhadap keuangan inklusif di daerah istimewa yogyakarta. daerah yang memberikan efek terbesar hingga efek terkecil secara berurutan adalah kota yogyakartakarta memberikan efek sebesar 0,675648858295, kemudian disusul kabupaten kulonprogo dengan memberikan efek sebesar 0,149153 terhadap keuangan inklusif di daerah istimewa yogyakarta, sementara kabupaten laninnya memberikan efek yang negatif tehadap keuangan inklusif di daerah istimewa yogyakarta, dimana kabupaten bantul memberikan efek sebesar -0,176049, kabupaten gunungkidul dengan efek sebesar -0,262527 dan kabupaten sleman yang memberikan efek paling rendah dengan angka sebesar -0,386226. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 1, april 2016: 31-45 40 uji statistik dari hasil penelitian dapat diketahui bahwa koefisien regresi untuk variabel x1 (pdrb) sebesar 1,43e-07 dengan probablitas sebesar 0,0000 yang signifikan pada taraf nyata 5 persen. dari hasil tersebut dapat diketahui bahwa variabel pdrb berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap keuangan inklusif di daerah istimewa yogyakarta, sementara itu variabel x2 (angka melek huruf) memiliki koefisien regresi negatif sebesar 0,025442 dengan probabilitas sebesar 0,0012 yang signifikan pada taraf nyata 5 persen. dari hasil tersebut dapat disimpulkan bahwa angka melek huruf berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap keuangan inkusif di daerah istimewa yogyakarta. hasil uji t-statistik untuk variabel x3 (rasio jalan) tidak jauh berbeda dengan hasil regresi variabel x2. rasio jalan memiliki koefisien regresi negatif sebesar -0,040918 dengan probabilitas sebesar 0,2698 dan tidak signifikan pada taraf nyata 5 persen. ini berarti bahwa rasio jalan berpengaruh negatif dan tidak signifikan terhadap keuangan inkusif di daerah istimewa yogyakarta. hasil uji f statisti menunjukkan nilai probabilitas f-statistik yang ditunjukkan model ini adalah sebesar 0,000000. hal ini berarti bahwa variabel independen secara bersamasama mempengaruhi variabel dependen, dengan kata lain pdrb, angka melek huruf dan rasio jalan secara bersama-sama mempengaruhi keuangan inklusif di daerah istimewa yogyakarta. dari hasil pengujian didapatkan nilai r squared sebesar 0,9594647. hal ini mendakan bahwa model ini mampu menjelaskan variabel dependen sebesar 95,94%, sedangkan sisanya sebesar 4,06% dijelaskan oleh variabel lain di luar penelitian ini. pembahasan indeks keuangan inklusif dibentuk oleh 3 dimensi yaitu penetrasi perbankan, ketersediaan jasa perbankan, dan penggunaan jasa perbankan. nilai indeks keuangan inklusif dari empat kabupaten dan satu kota madya yang terdapat di daerah istimewa yogyakarta dari tahun 2004 sampai dengan 2013 menujukkan angka < 0,3 dan tergolong rendah, meskipun terdapat satu kota yang nilainya ≥ 0,6 yaitu kota yogyakartakartakarta. pada umumnya nilai indeks keuangan inklusif dari tahun 2004-2013 selalu mengalami peningkatan tetapi peningkatan nilai indeks tidak begitu signifikan. pada tahun 2004 nilai indeks keuangan inklusif daerah istimewa yogyakarta mencapai 0,146 dan meningkat menjadi 0,279 pada tahun 2013. adanya peningkatan keuangan inklusif di daerah istimewa yogyakarta, khususnya jasa perbankan, dikarenakan adanya peningkatan dari setiap dimensi keuangan inklusif yaitu penetrasi perbankan, ketersediaan perbankan, dan penggunaan jasa perbankan di daerah istimewa yogyakarta. peningkatan ini juga menggambarkan bahwa akses dan penggunakan jasa perbankan oleh masyarakat, khususnya bank umum konvensional, mengalami peningkatan. hal ini seiring dengan semakin berkembangnya sektor perbankan di daerah istimewa yogyakarta. mengadopsi dari penelitian sarma (2012), dalam penelitian ini, masing-masing dimensi sumber: data diolah gambar 3. indek keuangan inklusif di daerah istimewa yogyakarta tahun 2004-2013 analisis keuangan inklusif: studi kasus daerah istimewa yogyakarta (atikah, ahmad ma’ruf) 41 dibagi kedalam 3 kategori, yaitu tinggi (0,6 < d ≤ 1), sedang (0,3 ≤ d ≤ 0,6), dan rendah (< 0,3). dari data diatas dapat diketahui bahwa dimensi ketersediaan jasa perbankan di daerah istimewa yogyakarta paling kecil jika dibandingkan dengan dimensi penetrasi dan kegunaan, yaitu dengan rata-rata sebesar 0,1. dimensi ketersediaan jasa perbankan juga tergolong rendah, artinya bahwa meskipun jumlah kantor cabang yang ada di daerah istimewa yogyakarta pada tahun 2013 mencapai 54 unit, tetapi jumlah kantor cabang yang telah ada ini belum mampu melayani seluruh masyarakat di daerah istimewa yogyakarta. dari 100.000 populasi dewasa yang ada di daerah istimewa yogyakarta hanya dilayani oleh 2 kantor cabang bank umum konvensional. tabel 5. nilai dimensi indeks keuangan inklusif di daerah istimewa yogyakarta tahun 2004-2013 tahun dimensi indeks keuangan inklusif penetrasi perbankan ketersediaan jasa perbankan penggunaan jasa perbankan 2004 0.174 0.122 0.139 2005 0.177 0.119 0.163 2006 0.137 0.117 0.177 2007 0.169 0.118 0.204 2008 0.253 0.145 0.207 2009 0.253 0.163 0.238 2010 0.253 0.180 0.267 2011 0.254 0.183 0.308 2012 0.254 0.188 0.355 2013 0.254 0.183 0.388 sumber: data diolah dimensi penetrasi perbankan di daerah istimewa yogyakarta juga tergolong rendah karena nilai dimensi ini berkisar antara 0,1-0,2. hal ini berarti meskipun jumlah rekening di daerah istimewa yogyakarta mencapai 2,7 juta unit, orang yang mengakses jasa perbankan di daerah istimewa yogyakarta masih rendah. dari 100.000 populasi dewasa di daerah istimewa yogyakarta terdapat 127 ribu orang yang memilik rekening di bank umum konensional pada tahun 2013. sama halnya dengan dimensi penetrasi dan ketersediaan, dimensi kegunaan juga tergolong dalam kategori rendah. meskipun terjadi peningkatan yang relatif lebih besar dari tahun 2004 sebesar 0,1 menjadi 0,3 pada tahun 2013. peningkatan pada dimensi kegunaan ini menunjukkan adanya peningkatan pada volume tabungan yang dihimpun dan kredit yang disalukan oleh bank umum konvensional terhadap pdrb di daerah istimewa yogyakarta. dimensi ketersediaan perbankan lebih rendah dibandingkan dengan dimensi penetrasi perbankan. hal ini menandakan bahwa, jumlah kantor cabang bank umum konvensional relatif lebih sedikit tetapi jumlah orang yang memiliki rekening lebih banyak. rendahnya dimensi ketersediaan dapat disebabkan oleh kondisi geografis dan demografis daerah istimewa yogyakarta yang cenderung kecil dan dikelilingi perbukitan, namum padat penduduk. daerah istimewa yogyakarta yang dikenal sebagai kota pelajar dimana setiap tahun mendapatkan sumbangan pelajar/mahasiswa yang tidak sedikit dari seluruh indonesia. pelajar/mahasiswa juga membutuhkan layanan jasa keuangan, namun hal tersebut tidak diimbangi dengan pertumbuhan kantor pelayanan jasa keuangan. menurut ummah (2015) rendahnya penetrasi perbankan dapat disebabkan oleh beberapa kemungkinan. pertama, meskipun perbankan memiliki banyak nasabah, namun melakukan transaksi dengan volume yang relatif kecil. besarnya transaksi dapat dilihat pada dimensi ketiga yaitu dimensi kegunaan. kedua, pemberian bobot yang sama dalam perhitungan indeks dimensi. penetrasi perbankan jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 1, april 2016: 31-45 42 seharusnya diberi bobot yang lebih besar dibanding dengan dimensi lainnya. hal ini karena jumlah pengguna perbankan merupakan indikator penting dari jasa keuangan yang inklusif. jasa keuangan akan semakin inklusif apabila penggunaan jasa keuangan tersebut semakin banyak. rendahnya tingkat keuangan inklusif di daerah istimewa yogyakarta dapat disebabkan oleh banyaknya penduduk yang tidak dapat mengakses layanan jasa perbankan. masyarakat tidak dapat mengakses perbankan karena adanya hambatan geografis daerah istimewa yogyakarta yang merupakan daerah dengan kondisi perbukitan atau tidak rata sehingga biaya pendirian kantor cabang mahal. selain itu, persyaratan yang ketat, proses yang kompleks, dan formalitas yang tinggi menjadi hambatan bagi masyarakat untuk mengakses perbankan (ummah, 2015). perbedaan indeks keuangan inklusif antar kabupaten/kota di daerah istimewa yogyakarta menunjukkan masih terjadinya ketimpangan akses jasa perbankan antar kabupaten/kota. selain itu, beberapa kabupaten/kota yang memiliki kantor perbankan, rekening deposit, dan tingkat penggunaan perbankan yang cukup tinggi memiliki indeks keuangan inklusif lebih rendah dibandingkan dengan kabupaten/kota yang memiliki kantor perbankan, rekening deposit, dan tingkat penggunaan perbankan yang relatif lebih rendah. berikut indeks keuangan inklusif berdasarkan kabupaten/kota di daerah istimewa yogyakarta. tabel 6. indeks keuangan inklusif berdasarkan kabupaten/kota di daerah istimewa yogyakarta tahun 2004-2013 daerah kulonprogo bantul gunungkidul sleman kota yogyakarta prov. diy 2004 0.084 0.074 0.095 0.069 0.531 0.146 2005 0.086 0.066 0.046 0.099 0.538 0.154 2006 0.089 0.077 0.050 0.089 0.484 0.145 2007 0.092 0.079 0.049 0.103 0.549 0.166 2008 0.072 0.039 0.039 0.083 0.586 0.203 2009 0.075 0.043 0.042 0.097 0.639 0.219 2010 0.096 0.064 0.053 0.122 0.817 0.234 2011 0.098 0.068 0.057 0.132 0.869 0.250 2012 0.100 0.067 0.062 0.137 0.938 0.269 2013 0.123 0.079 0.082 0.159 0.978 0.279 rata-rata 0.092 0.066 0.058 0.109 0.693 0.206 sumber: data diolah faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi keuangan inklusif di diy berdasarkan penelitian maka dapat diketahui bahwa variabel pdrb berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap keuangan inklusif di daerah istimewa yogyakarta. hasil ini sejalan dengan penelitian sarma (2012), migap, dkk (2015)serta ummah (2015) yang menunjukkan bahwa ukuran perekonomian dalam hal ini produk domestik regional bruto (pdrb) berpengaruh positif terhadap keuangan inklusif. seluruh daerah kabupaten/kota di daerah istimewa yogyakarta memiliki tren pdrb yang meningkat dari tahun 2004 sampai tahun 2013. hal ini juga mengakibatkan pdrb daerah istimewa yogyakarta selalu mengalami pertumbuhan positif dari tahun ke tahun. begitu pula dengan tingkat keuangan inklusif setiap daerah kabupaten/kota dari tahun 2004 sampai 2013 selalu mengalami peningkatan. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa seiring dengan analisis keuangan inklusif: studi kasus daerah istimewa yogyakarta (atikah, ahmad ma’ruf) 43 peningkatan ukuran perekonomian, keuangan inklusif di daerah istimewa yogyakarta juga meningkat. angka melek huruf berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap keuangan inklusif. hasil ini berbeda dengan penelitian ummah (2015) yang menunjukkan bahwa angka melek huruf berpengaruh positif namun tidak signifikan terhadap keuangan inklusif. angka melek huruf di daerah istimewa yogyakarta terus meningkat dari tahun ke tahun. daerah yang memiliki angka melek huruf tertinggi adalah kota yogyakartakarta, sedangkan daerah yang angka melek huruf masih rendah adalah gunungkidul. hasil penelitian ini menandakan bahwa angka melek huruf yang tinggi tidak berpengaruh terhadap keuangan inklusif. hal ini bisa dikerenakan masyarakat yang bisa membaca dan menulis (melek huruf) memiliki tingkat pendidikan yang masih rendah. sanjaya (2014) menyebutkan bahwa pendidikan berperan penting tidak hanya dalam pertumbuhan ekonomi, tetapi juga dalam perbaikan kesenjangan sosial. pendidikan yang lebih baik akan meningkatkan keadilan sosial dan pertumbuhan ekonomi. pendidikan juga berperan dalam pengentasan kemiskinan dengan cara meningkatkan keterampilan dan produktivitas masyarakat. oleh karena itu, kemampuan individu untuk mengakses perbankan tidak serta merta ditentukan oleh kemampuan membaca menulis, namun lebih kepada keinginan individu terkait untuk ikut andil dalam lembaga keuangan. rasio jalan berpengaruh negatif dan tidak signifikan terhadap keuangan inklusif di daerah istimewa yoyakarta. hasil ini sesuai dengan penelitian ummah (2015) yang menyatakan bahwa rasio panjang jalan tidak berpengaruh terhadap keuangan inklusif di indonesia. hal ini dikarenakan berkembangnya produk baru yang ditawarkan oleh lembaga keuangan dengan mengembangkan branchless banking seperti pengadaan atm dan mesin setor tunai, pengadaan internet banking dan mobile banking. kriteria branchless banking antara lain yaitu tanpa melalui kantor cabang bank, menggunakan agen yang bekerjasama dengan bank, nasabah bisa melakukan transaksi sendiri atau menggunakan agen, fitur transaksi yang sederhana (basic feature), layanan murah (low cost transaction) dan yang paling utama yaitu ditujukan khususnya untuk segmen bawah atau unbanked poor. dengan demikian masyarakat tidak harus bersentuhan langsung dengan lembaga keuangan ketika melakukan transaksi. simpulan dan saran simpulan berdasarkan hasil yang didapatkan dari penelitian yang dilakukan terhadap keuangan inklusif di daerah istimewa yogyakarta adalah sebagai berikut: 1. hampir seluruh daerah kabupaten/kota di indonesia memiliki tingkat keuangan inklusif rendah. rata-rata indeks keuangan inklusif antar daerah kabupaten/kota di daerah istimewa yogyakarta berkisar antara 0,05-0,1, kecuali kota yogyakarta yang tergolong tinggi yang mencapai 0,693. hal ini disebabkan karena kota yogyakarta merupakan ibu kota provinsi dan pusat kegiatan perekonomian dan pembelajaran. 2. produk domestik regional bruto berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap tingkat keuangan inklusif di daerah istimewa yogyakarta. karena semakin tinggi pertumbuhan ekonomi akan semakin meningkatkan kemampuan masyarakat untuk mengakses lembaga keuangan. 3. angka melek huruf berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap tingkat keuangan inklusif di daerah istimewa yogyakarta. kemampuan individu untuk mengakses perbankan tidak serta merta ditentukan oleh kemampuan membaca menulis, namun lebih kepada keinginan individu terkait untuk ikut andil dalam lembaga keuangan. 4. rasio jalan berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap tingkat keuangan inklusif di daerah istimewa yogyakarta. kondisi jalan yang ada saat ini tidak berpengaruh kepada keuangan inklusif. karena banyak produk perbankan yang telah diterbitkan yang mempermudah akses nasabah tanpa harus bersentuhan langsung dengan perbankan. seperti halnya peluncuran mobile banking yang tidak jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 1, april 2016: 31-45 44 mengharuskan nasabah untuk mendatangi lembaga keuangan ketika melakukan transaksi. saran saran yang dapat diberikan oleh peneliti pada penelitian ini, yaitu sebagai berikut: 1. baik pemerintah maupun pelaku sektor perbankan bekerja sama untuk meningkatkan akses dan penggunaan jasa perbankan yaitu dengan meningkatkan setiap dimensi keuangan inklusif. penetrasi perbankan dapat ditingkatkan dengan mengajak masyarakat untuk menabung. akses perbankan dapat ditingkatkan dengan mengembangkan branchless banking seperti pengadaan atm dan mesin setor tunai serta mobile banking. sedangkan untuk dimensi kegunaan, baik pemerintah, bank indonesia, serta stakeholder terkait dapat menyediakan kredit murah dan mudah diakses oleh pengusaha kecil yang membutuhkan modal. 2. perkembangan perekonomian harus ditingkatkan, karena merupakan salah satu faktor yang mempengaruhi keuangan inklusif suatu daerah. 3. sebagaimana yang tercantum dalam strategi nasional keuangan inklusif pilar yang pertama yaitu edukasi keuangan. peningkatan pemahaman terkait jasa perbankan dengan melakukan edukasi jasa keuangan terutama bagi masyarakat yang berpendapatan rendah, perempuan, dan penduduk daerah tertinggal serta peningkatan infrastruktur fisik agar jasa keuangan dapat menjangkau masyarakat di berbagi daerah. seperti yang terpapar dalam strategi nasional keuangan inklusif. 4. pemanfaatan teknologi terutama telepon seluler dan internet secara efisien dapat memperluas jaringan jasa perbankan yang merata ke berbagai daerah dengan mengurangi hambatan geografis (misalnya, mobile money untuk memfasilitasi transfer dan transaksi pembayaran antar pulau, serta antar perdesaan dan perkotaan). daftar pustaka anonym, part 7: uji asumsi klasik regresi data panel dengan eviews (multikolinearitas), http://egienews.blogspot.co.id/2013/06/part7-uji-asumsi-klasik-regresi-data.html, diakses pada 20 november 2015 pk 10.58 wib. akenbor, c.o., 2015, “financial inclusion and poverty trap in nigeria”, mustang journal of accounting and finance, volume 7, spring, 2015: 149-159. ariyoso, 2010, “operasionalisasi regresi data panel”, https://ariyoso.wordpress. com/2010/01/17/regresi-data-panel/, diakses pada 16 november 2015 pk 11. 34 wib. badan pusat statistik, daerah istimewa yogyakarta dalam angka. basuki, a.t., 2014, bahan ajar ekonometrika. basuki, a.t dan yuliadi, i., 2015, elektronik data processing (spss dan eviews 7), danisa media, yogyakarta. ______________________________, ekonometrika teori dan aplikasi, mitra pustaka nurani (matan), yogyakarta. bank indonesia, “laporan perkembangan perekonomian daerah istimewa yogyakarta kuartal iv”. _____________, 2014, “financial literacy baseline survey summary”, volume 1, september, hal. 1-3. __________________, booklet keuangan inklusif 2014. bps dan bappeda, 2014, analisis pdrb diy 2009-2013. endri, model regresi panel data dan aplikasi eviews. hakim, a.r., hand out panel data, disampaikan pada kuliah asisten ppie fe ui ta 2013/2014. hermanto dan saptutyningsih. e, 2002, processing spss 10.0 dan eviews 3.0, unit penerbit fakultas ekonomi universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta, yogyakarta. imboden, k., 2005. “building inclusive financial sectors: the road to growth and poverty reduction”. journal of international affairs, 58(2), 65. irmawati dan setyani, 2013, “model inklusi keuangan pada umkm berbasis http://egienews.blogspot.co.id/2013/06/part-7-uji-asumsi-klasik-regresi-data.html http://egienews.blogspot.co.id/2013/06/part-7-uji-asumsi-klasik-regresi-data.html analisis keuangan inklusif: studi kasus daerah istimewa yogyakarta (atikah, ahmad ma’ruf) 45 pedesaan”, jejak journal of economics and policy 6 (2) (2013): 103-213. iqbal, m., 2015, regresi data panel (2) “tahap analisis”, https://dosen.perbanas. id/regresi-data-panel-2-tahap-analisis/, diakses tanggal 20 november 2015 pk 10. 39 wib. koker, l. de., 2011, “aligning anti-money laundering, combating of financing of terror and financial inclusion (questions to consider when fatf standards are clarified)”. journal of financial crime vol. 18 no. 4, 2011 pp. 361-386. kurniawan, a., 2014, modul praktikum ekonometrika dan statistika, universitas diponegoro. migap, j.p., dkk., 2015, “financial inclusion for inclusive growth: the nigerian perspective”, international journal of information technology and business management, vol.37 no.1, 29 mei. sanjaya, i.m., 2014, “inklusi keuangan dan pertumbuhan inklusif sebagai strategi pengentasan kemiskinan di indonesia”, tesis, institut pertanian bogor. sarma, m., 2012, ” index of financial inclusion – a measure of financial sector inclusiveness”, berlin working paper on money, finance, trade and development, working paper no. 07/2012. saruparia, c., 2012, “financial inclusion for inclusive growth in india”. assistant professor, faculty of policy science, national law university, jodhpur. sekretariat negara republik indonesia, asean financial inclusion, http://www.setneg.go.id/index.php? option=com_content&task=view&id=8186. diakses tanggal 20 september 2015 pk 15.41 wib. setiawan, m.a., 2015, “analisis keterkaitan inklusi keuangan terhadap perilaku keuangan personal masyarakat di wilayah kota dan kabupaten provinsi jawa timur”. steelyana, e., 2013, “perempuan dan perbankan: sebuah tinjauan tentang peran inklusi keuangan terhadap pengusaha umkm perempuan di indonesia”, journal the winners, vol. 14 no. 2, september 2013: 95-103. suhaimi, u., 2010, melek huruf, melek statistik dan peradaban. http://uzairsuhaimi. files.wordpress. com//2010/04/melekhuruf.statistik.pdf, diakses tanggal 14 november 2015 pk 09.48. supartoyo, y.h. dan kasmiati, branchless banking mewujudkan keuangan inklusif sebagai alternatif solusi inovatif menanggulangi kemiskinan: review dan rekomendasi, https://www.academia.edu/4766290/branch less_banking_mewujudkan_keuangan_ink lusif_sebagai _alternatif_solusi_inovatif_menanggulang i_kemiskinan, diakses tanggal 1 oktober 2015 pk 12.53 wib. ummah, b.b., 2015, “analisis inklusi keuangan dan pemerataan pendapatan di indonesia”, tesis, institut pertanian bogor. winarno, w.w., 2011, analisis ekonometrika dan statistika dengan eviews, edisi 3, upp stim ykpn, yogyakarta. http://www.setneg.go.id/index.php?%20option=com_content&task=view&id=8186 http://www.setneg.go.id/index.php?%20option=com_content&task=view&id=8186 https://www.academia.edu/4766290/ studi efektivitas pelayanan publik di kecamatan kejaksan kota cirebon jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 11 25 strategi pengembangan sektor pertanian pasca gempabumi kabupaten bantul agus tri basuki fakultas ekonomi universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta jalan lingkar selatan, tamantirto, kasihan, bantul, yogyakarta, telp/fax. 0274-387656 psw 184, 387646 e-mail: agustribasuki@yahoo.com abstrak: penelitian ini bertujuan, pertama, menentukan prioritas rencana pembangunan pertanian sebagai dasar pembangunan daerah di masa depan. kedua, mendapatkan gambaran yang komprehensif dan integral dalam pengembangan pertanian sebagai dasar penentuan kebijakan, program, kegiatan, dan pengendalian pembangunan di kabupaten bantul. data dalam penelitian ini menggunakan data periode tahun 2001 hingga 2005. data ini selanjutnya dianalisis dengan menggunakan location quotient (lq). hasilnya menunjukkan variasi di sebagian besar kecamatan, dengan prioritas pada basis pertanian, sedangkan di kecamatan yang lain pada basis non pertanian. hasil penelitian ini ditunjukkan oleh distribusi nilai lq yang lebih besar dari satu, yang ditemukan di sebagian besar kecamatan. ini berarti bahwa hampir seluruh kecamatan di kabupaten bantul sudah dapat terpenuhi kebutuhan wilayahnya melalui sektor pertanian. kata kunci: pdrb, location quotient, sektor basis, sektor pertanian abstract: this study aims, first, determine the priorities of agricultural development plans as a basis for regional development in the future. secondly, to obtain a comprehensive and integrated delineation in the development of agriculture as the basis for determining policies, programs, activities, and monitor the development of bantul. data in this study using data period 2001 until 2005. these data then were analyzed using location quotient method (lq). the results showed variation in most districts, with priority on the agricultural base, whereas in the other districts on the basis of non-agricultural. the results of this study is shown by the distribution of ri values greater than one, which is found in most districts. this means that almost all districts of bantul regency has met the needs of their territory from the agricultural sector. keywords: pdrb, location quotient, base sector, agriculture sector pendahuluan perencanaan pembangunan wilayah ditujukan untuk mengupayakan keserasian dan keseimbangan pembangunan antardaerah sesuai dengan potensi alamnya dan memanfaatkan potensi tersebut secara efisien, tertib dan aman. untuk itu, berdasarkan uu no. 24 tahun 1992 tentang penataan ruang telah disusun rencana tata ruang wilayah nasional (rtrwn) yang ditetapkan melalui peraturan pemerintah no. 47 tahun 1997 sebagai acuan perencanaan pembangunan nasional. rtrwn berfungsi sebagai pedoman untuk: perumusan kebijaksanaan pokok pemanfaatan ruang di wilayah nasional. mewujudkan keterpaduan, keterkaitan dan keseimbangan perkembangan antarwilayah serta keserasian antarsektor pembangunan jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 11 25 12 pengarahan lokasi investasi yang dilaksanakan oleh pemerintah dan atau masyarakat penataan ruang wilayah kabupaten. pada prinsipnya, pendekatan pembagian ruang dapat dilakukan berdasarkan fungsi, kegiatan, dan aspek administrasi. berdasarkan fungsi, ruang dibagi atas kawasan lindung, yaitu kawasan yang dapat menjamin kelestarian lingkungan; dan kawasan budidaya, yaitu kawasan yang pemanfaatannya dioptimasikan bagi kegiatan budidaya. berdasarkan kegiatannya, ruang dibagi atas dominasi kegiatan perkotaan, perdesaan dan tertentu. termasuk dalam kawasan tertentu antara lain adalah kawasan cepat/berpotensi tumbuh, kawasan kritis lingkungan, kawasan perbatasan, kawasan sangat tertinggal, dan kawasan strategis. sedangkan berdasarkan administrasi, ruang dibagi atas ruang wilayah nasional, propinsi, dan kabupaten/ kota. pada intinya, ruang harus dilihat sebagai satu kesatuan yang digunakan sebesar besarnya untuk kemakmuran rakyat yang perlu dipelihara kelestariannya. untuk itu diperlukan pendekatan wilayah sebagai strategi pengembangan ruang yang mengatur hubungan yang harmonis antara sumber daya alam, buatan, dan manusia agar kinerja ruang meningkat untuk kesejahteraan masyarakat. gempabumi yang terjadi pada tanggal 27 mei 2006 yang lalu telah semakin membuka berbagai masalah ketimpangan pembangunan daerah khususnya kabupaten bantul. masalah tersebut antara lain adalah: 1. penurunan produksi pertanian akibat rusaknya irigasi di berbagai daerah. 2. kegagalan-kegagalan implementasi berbagai program pembangunan sering disebabkan oleh karena lemahnya koordinasi antarinstitusi baik di tingkat pusat, daerah maupun antarpusat dan daerah, dan kurang fleksibelnya perencanaan yang sering bersifat top-down. berbagai masalah ketimpangan ini secara parsial telah disadari sebagai kegagalan pendekatan pembangunan selama ini yang dinilai sering sentralistis dan kurang memperhatikan kondisi dan aspirasi daerah setempat dimana pembangunan dilaksanakan. sejalan dengan proses demokratisasi yang semakin berkembang, tuntutan desentralisasi juga semakin besar. berbagai dinamika dan perubahan yang terjadi di masyarakat menuntut perlunya reformasi dalam konsepsi dan operasionalisasi pembangunan daerah yang kemudian harus diformulasikan ke dalam bentuk strategi dan kebijaksanaan yang memuat keseimbangan antara kepentingan persatuan dan kesatuan bangsa (unity), dan kepentingan keanekaragaman (diversity). untuk itu, pendekatan pertanian yang memperhatikan hubungan harmonis antara unsurunsur pembentuk ruang (sumber daya alam, sumber daya buatan, dan sumber daya manusia) perlu diperhatikan dalam berbagai aspek pembangunan khusunya sektor pertanian. adapun tujuan dari pekerjaan penyusunan dan analisis prioritas pengembangan wilayah kabupaten bantul ini adalah: 1. menentukan rencana prioritas pengembangan pertanian sebagai dasar pembangunan daerah di masa datang; 2. memperoleh gambaran yang komprehensif dan integralistik dalam pengembangan pertanian sebagai dasar penentuan kebijakan, program dan kegiatan serta pengendalian pembangunan di kabupaten bantul; tinjauan pustaka dalam penelitian ini sebagai berikut: konsep pengembangan wilayah pertanian dimaksudkan untuk memperkecil kesenjangan pertumbuhan dan ketimpangan strategi pengembangan sektor pertanian ... (agus tri basuki) 13 kesejahteraan antarwilayah dalam bidang pertanian. untuk itu pengertian wilayah menjadi penting dalam pembahasan ini. menurut pp nomor 47 tahun 1997 wilayah adalah ruang yang merupakan kesatuan geografis beserta segenap unsur terkait padanya yang batas dan sistemnya ditentukan berdasarkan aspek administratif dan atau aspek fungsional. jadi pengembangan wilayah merupakan upaya memberdayakan stake holders di suatu wilayah dalam memanfaatkan sumberdaya alam dengan teknologi untuk memberi nilai tambah atas apa yang dimiliki oleh wilayah administratif atau wilayah fungsional dalam rangka meningkatkan kualitas hidup rakyat di wilayah tersebut. dengan demikian dalam jangka panjang, pengembangan wilayah mempunyai target untuk pertumbuhan ekonomi dan peningkatan kesejahteraan masyarakat. cara mencapainya bersandar pada kemampuan sdm dalam memanfaatkan lingkungan sekitar dan daya tampungnya serta kemampuan memanfaatkan instrumen yang ada. dengan target tersebut dirancang skenario-skenario tertentu agar kekurangan-kekurangan yang dihadapi dapat diupayakan melalui pemanfaatan resources. apabila konsep tersebut diterapkan di indonesia, muncul persoalan berupa kekurangan teknologi untuk mengolah resources yang melimpah. kajian pengembangan wilayah di indonesia selama ini selalu didekati dari aspek sektoral dan aspek spasial. pada kajian aspek sektoral lebih menyatakan ukuran dari aktifitas masyarakat suatu wilayah dalam mengelola sumberdaya alam yang dimilikinya. sementara itu, kajian aspek spasial (keruangan) lebih menunjukkan arah dari kegiatan sektoral atau dimana lokasi serta dimana sebaiknya lokasi kegiatan sektoral tersebut. dalam kaitan itu ada tiga kelompok konsep pengembangan wilayah yaitu konsep pusat pertumbuhan, konsep integrasi fungsional dan konsep pendekatan desentralisasi (alkadri et. al, manajemen teknologi untuk pengembangan wilayah. 1999). konsep pusat pertumbuhan menekankan pada perlunya melakukan investasi secara besar-besaran pada suatu pusat pertumbuhan atau wilayah/ kota yang telah mempunyai infrastruktur yang baik. pengembangan wilayah di sekitar pusat pertumbuhan diharapkan melalui proses tetesan ke bawah (trickle down effect). penerapan konsep ini di indonesia telah melahirkan adanya 111 kawasan andalan dalam rtrwn. konsep integrasi fungsional mengutamakan adanya integrasi yang diciptakan secara sengaja di antara berbagai pusat pertumbuhan karena adanya fungsi yang komplementer. konsep ini menempatkan suatu kota atau wilayah mempunyai hirarki sebagai pusat pelayanan relatif terhadap kota atau wilayah yang lain. sedangkan konsep desentralisasi dimaksudkan untuk mencegah tidak terjadinya aliran keluar dari sumberdana dan sumberdaya manusia. pendekatan tersebut mempunyai berbagai kelemahan. dari kondisi ini munculah beberapa konsep untuk menanggapi kelemahan tersebut. konsep tersebut antara lain people center approach yang menekankan pada pembangunan sumberdaya manusia, natural resources-based development yang menekankan sumberdaya alam sebagai modal pembangunan, serta technology based development yang melihat teknologi sebagai kunci dari keberhasilan pembangunan wilayah. kenyataan menunjukkan bahwa aplikasi konsep tersebut kurang berhasil dalam membawa kesejahteraan rakyat. fenomena persaingan antarwilayah, tren perdagangan global yang sering memaksa jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 11 25 14 penerapan sistem outsourcing, kemajuan teknologi yang telah merubah dunia menjadi lebih dinamis, perubahan mendasar dalam sistem kemasyarakatan seperti demokratisasi, otonomi, keterbukaan dan meningkatnya kreatifitas masyarakat telah mendorong perubahan paradigma dalam pengembangan wilayah. dengan semakin kompleksnya masalah tersebut dapat dibayangkan akan sangat sulit untuk mengelola pembangunan secara terpusat, seperti pada konsep-konsep yang dijelaskan di atas. pilihan yang tepat adalah memberikan kewenangan yang lebih besar kepada daerah untuk mengelola pembangunan di wilayahnya sendiri. pembangunan ekonomi yang hanya mengejar pertumbuhan tinggi dengan mengandalkan keunggulan komparatif berupa kekayaan alam berlimpah, upah murah atau yang dikenal dengan bubble economics, sudah usang karena terbukti tak tahan terhadap gelombang krisis. walaupun teori keunggulan komparatif tersebut telah bermetamorfose dari hanya memperhitungkan faktor produksi menjadi berkembangnya kebijaksanaan pemerintah dalam bidang fiskal dan moneter, ternyata daya saing tidak lagi terletak pada faktor tersebut (alkadri et al, 1999). kenyataan menunjukkan bahwa daya saing dapat pula diperoleh dari kemampuan untuk melakukan perbaikan dan inovasi secara menerus. menurut porter (1990) dalam tiga pilar pengembangan wilayah (1999) keunggulan komparatif telah dikalahkan oleh kemajuan teknologi. namun demikian, setiap wilayah masih mempunyai faktor keunggulan khusus yang bukan didasarkan pada biaya produksi yang murah saja, tetapi lebih dari itu, yakni adanya inovasi untuk pembaruan. suatu wilayah dapat meraih keunggulan daya saing melalui empat hal yaitu keunggulan faktor produksi, keunggulan inovasi, kesejahteraan masyarakat, dan besarnya investasi. apabila dicermati maka paradigma pengembangan wilayah telah bergeser pada upaya yang mengandalkan tiga pilar yaitu sumberdaya alam, sumberdaya manusia dan teknologi. ketiga pilar tersebut merupakan elemen internal wilayah yang saling terkait dan berinteraksi membentuk satu sistem. hasil interaksi elemen tersebut mencerminkan kinerja dari suatu wilayah. kinerja tersebut akan berbeda dengan kinerja wilayah lainnya, sehingga mendorong terciptanya spesialisasi spesifik wilayah. dengan demikian akan terjadi persaingan antarwilayah untuk menjadi pusat spatial network dari wilayahwilayah lain secara nasional. namun pendekatan ini mempunyai kelemahan yang antara lain apabila salah di dalam mengelola spatial network tadi tidak mustahil menjadi awal dari proses disintegrasi. untuk itu harus diterapkan konsep pareto pertumbuhan yang bisa mengendalikan keseimbangan pertumbuhan dan dikelola oleh pemerintah pusat. konsep pareto ini diharapkan mampu memberikan keserasian pertumbuhan antarwilayah dengan penerapan insentif-insentif kepada wilayah yang kurang berkembang. metode obyek penelitian penelitian akan dilakukan di wilayah kabupaten bantul, sesuai dengan tujuan yang hendak dicapai. obyek penelitian ini adalah setiap sektor yang ada dalam perekonomian kabupaten bantul. kajian difokuskan pada sub wilayah pembangunan (swp) sektor perdi kabupaten bantul. data-data yang digunakan dalam penelitian adalah lima tahun, yaitu mulai tahun 2001 hingga 2005. dari hasil analisis yang dilakukan nantinya diturunkan strategi pengembangan dan kebijakan di setiap sub wilayah pembangunan tersebut. adanya strategi pengembangan sektor pertanian ... (agus tri basuki) 15 kajian ini, diharapkan proses pembangunan menjadi lebih fokus dan tepat sasaran. sumber data dan sampel penelitian metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini merupakan kombinasi antara analisis data sekunder dan analisis data (informasi) primer. data primer akan dikumpulkan oleh enumerator dengan mewawancarai responden melalui kuesioner yang telah dipersiapkan sebelumnya. sedangkan data sekunder dikumpulkan dari publikasi badan pusat statistik (bps), publikasi/laporan-laporan dari instansi terkait, serta hasil-hasil penelitian yang pernah dilakukan oleh pihak-pihak terkait. gambaran umum kabupaten bantul kabupaten bantul merupakan bagian integral dari wilayah propinsi daerah istimewa yogyakarta yang meliputi empat kabupaten dan satu kota. kabupaten bantul memiliki wilayah seluas 506,85 km2, yang secara administratif terbagi dalam 17 kecamatan, 75 desa dan 933 pedukuhan. berdasarkan data registrasi penduduk, pada tahun 2005 jumlah penduduk kabupaten bantul tercatat sejumlah 809.971 jiwa, yang terdiri dari 397.261 laki-laki dan 412.710 perempuan, dengan laju pertumbuhan ratarata selama 5 tahun terakhir tercatat 0,74 persen per tahun, dan kepadatan penduduk mencapai 1.598 jiwa per km2 serta jumlah pencari kerja (pengangguran) pada tahun 2005 adalah sebesar 31.633 orang atau sebesar 3,9 persen dari total jumlah penduduk. sedangkan di tahun 2004 angka pengangguran mencapai 19.095 orang atau sebesar 2,38 persen dari total jumlah penduduk tahun 2004 yang berjumlah 799.211 jiwa (sumber: bantul dalam angka, 2005). secara topografis, kabupaten bantul terbagi menjadi daerah dataran yang terletak di bagian tengah dan utara, daerah perbukitan di bagian timur dan daerah pantai di bagian selatan. secara hidrologis, kabupaten bantul dilewati oleh tiga sungai utama yaitu sungai opak, oya dan sungai progo yang dimanfaatkan untuk pasokan irigasi serta tambang pasir dan batu. berdasarkan posisi geografisnya, wilayah kabupaten bantul merupakan salah satu wilayah terselatan di diy, dan dengan jalur utama lalu lintas antardaerah yang terletak di bagian utara ini, maka mengakibatkan percepatan perkembangan wilayah kabupaten bantul di bagian utara lebih pesat dibanding wilayah lainnya. dengan kondisi fisik wilayah kabupaten bantul tersebut memunculkan permasalahan pengembangan yang tidak merata di seluruh wilayah. di samping itu, sebagai daerah hilir, maka wilayah kabupaten bantul banyak menerima aliran limbah dari wilayah yang lebih tinggi serta rawan terhadap banjir, sedang di wilayah perbukitan rawan terhadap kekeringan dan longsor. pertumbuhan perekonomian daerah bantul antara tahun 2003-2005 didukung oleh sektor-sektor utama yaitu pertanian (22,02 persen); industri pengolahan (20,89 persen); perdagangan, hotel dan restoran (17,21 persen); dan jasa-jasa (15,03 persen) (sumber: bantul dalam angka, 2005). pengembangan wilayah dengan mendasarkan pada potensi yang dimiliki dan mengacu pada usaha untuk penanganan permasalahan yang ada di wilayah ini, maka diperlukan suatu struktur perencanaan pembangunan yang terarah. sebagai petunjuk dan penentu arah kebijakan pembangunan telah disusun rencana pembangunan jangka panjang (2006-2025) dan jangka menengah (2006-2010) daerah kabupaten jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 11 25 16 bantul, yang telah ditetapkan dalam suatu peraturan daerah kabupaten bantul yaitu perda no. 14 tahun 2005 tentang rpjpd dan perda no. 15 tahun 2005 tentang rpjmd. 1. letak geografis bantul memiliki wilayah seluas 506,85 km2, yang secara administratif pemerintahan terbagi dalam 17 kecamatan, 75 desa, dan 933 pedukuhan. secara topografis, kabupaten bantul terbagi menjadi daerah dataran yang terletak pada bagian tengah dan utara, daerah perbukitan yang terletak pada bagian timur dan barat serta daerah pantai yang terletak pada bagian selatan. wilayah kabupaten bantul dilewati oleh tiga sungai utama yaitu sungai opak, oya, dan progo. ketiga sungai ini dimanfaatkan untuk pasokan irigasi serta tambang pasir dan batu. 2. topografi secara letak geografis, kabupaten bantul sebagian besar adalah berbentuk dataran, dan sebagian lagi adalah termasuk lereng punggung bukit/slope of a hill dan pantai, serta kondisi topografinya sebagian besar adalah berbentuk dataran. sebagian besar kondisi geografis dan topografi di semua kecamatan di bantul adalah dataran. hanya sebagian kecil kondisi geografis berupa lereng yaitu di kecamatan dlingo, seloharjo (pundong) dan piyungan. sedangkan kondisi geografis pantai hanya di wilayah sanden dan srandakan. untuk ketinggian tempat dari permukaan laut (dpl), kabupaten bantul memiliki tinggi tempat (elevasi) yang bervariasi. untuk tinggi tempat lebih dari 100 meter dpl, terdapat di kecamatan dlingo dan kecamatan pajangan bagian timur. untuk ketinggian tempat 7-24 meter dpl, terdapat di kecamatan pundong, kretek, bambanglipuro, srandakan bagian utara dan sanden. untuk ketinggian tempat 0-6 meter dpl, terdapat di kecamatan kretek bagian selatan dan srandakan. sedang wilayah kabupaten bantul lainnya berada pada ketinggian/elevasi 25-100 meter dpl. 3. perekonomian kegiatan perekonomian di wilayah kabupaten bantul sangat beragam. dari kondisi ekonomi makro, di peroleh data bahwa pdrb kabupaten bantul sebesar rp. 4.898.269.000,-. pertumbuhan perekonomian daerah bantul antara tahun 2003-2005 didukung oleh sektorsektor utama yaitu pertanian (22,02 persen); industri pengolahan (20,89 persen); perdagangan, hotel dan restoran (17,21 persen); dan jasa-jasa (15,03 persen). pertumbuhan perekonomian kabupaten bantul dapat dilihat melalui indikator perkembangan produk domestik regional bruto (pdrb) dan pdrb per kapita. pertumbuhan pdrb selama lima tahun terakhir (tahun 2001 sampai dengan 2005), berdasarkan harga berlaku dan harga konstan tahun 2000, dapat dilihat pada tabel 1. pada tahun 2001, lapangan usaha yang memberikan sumbangan signifikan kepada pdrb kabupaten bantul adalah pertanian sebesar 29,35 persen; industri pengolahan sebesar 18,46 persen; perdagangan, hotel, dan restoran sebesar 17,09 persen; dan jasa-jasa sebesar 14,50 persen. pada tahun 2005 sumbangan keempat sektor di atas masih tetap dominan, dan terlihat selalu terjadi trend pergeseran dari sektor pertanian ke sektor non-pertanian. secara berturut-turut, pergeseran persentase kontribusi utama terhadap perekonomian dibandingkan dengan tahun 2001 adalah sebagai berikut. sektor pertanian memberikan kontribusi sebesar 22,02 persen (dibandingkan dengan tahun 2000 turun sebesar 24,97 persen); industri pengolahan strategi pengembangan sektor pertanian ... (agus tri basuki) 17 sebesar 20,89 persen (naik 13,16 persen); perdagangan, hotel, dan restoran sebesar 17,21 persen (naik 0,7 persen); dan jasa-jasa sebesar 15,03 persen (naik 3,67 persen) (lihat gambar 3). selanjutnya pertumbuhan pdrb selama lima tahun terakhir di kabupaten bantul secara rinci dapat dilihat pada tabel 1. melihat data perkembangan pdrb tersebut maka dapat disimpulkan kondisi makro ekonomi kabupaten bantul sebagai berikut: 1. berdasarkan harga konstan tahun 2000, pdrb kabupaten bantul pada tahun 2003 mengalami pertumbuhan sebesar 4,69 persen, 2004 sebesar 5,04 persen, dan tahun 2005 sebesar 4,99 persen. 2. pertumbuhan pdrb kabupaten bantul selama 5 tahun terakhir (2002-2006) mengalami peningkatan rata-rata sebesar 13,64 persen per tahun untuk harga berlaku dan 4,90 persen berdasarkan harga konstan tahun 2000. pada lima tahun terakhir pertumbuhan pdrb per kapita kabupaten bantul mengalami pertumbuhan pdrb per kapita berdasarkan harga berlaku pada tahun 2002 adalah sebesar rp 4.176.083,-, meningkat menjadi rp 5.919.788,pada tahun 2005. sementara pdrb per kapita berdasarkan harga konstan pada tahun 2002 adalah sebesar rp 3.504.540, meningkat menjadi rp 3.908.649,pada tahun 2005. selanjutnya pertumbuhan pdrb per kapita selama lima tahun terakhir berdasarkan harga berlaku mengalami peningkatan rata-rata sebesar 12,3 persen dan menurut harga konstan tahun 2000 rata-rata sebesar 3,7 persen. perkembangan pdrb per kapita selama lima tahun terakhir disajikan pada tabel 2. dengan adanya gempabumi yang melanda wilayah bantul pada tanggal 27 mei 2006, telah menyebabkan kemunduran kondisi maupun berbagai potensi yang dimiliki wilayah kabupaten bantul dibanding sebelum terjadi gempa. dengan demikian dipandang perlu adanya suatu masukan untuk penyempurnaan perencanaan pembangunan mengacu pada kondisi, potensi dan permasalahan yang ada setelah terjadinya gempa tersebut. konsepsi perencanaan pembangunan pascagempa ini tetap mengacu pada hasil-hasil perencanaan yang telah tabel 1. distribusi persentase produk domestik regional bruto kabupaten bantul menurut lapangan usaha 2001-2005 no. lapangan usaha th 2001 (%) th 2002 (%) th 2003 (%) th2004 (%) th 2005 (%) 1 pertanian 29,35 28,99 24,02 22,98 22,02 2 pertambangan dan penggalian 1,42 1,40 1,19 1,07 1,01 3 industri pengolahan 18,46 18,56 20,91 21,09 20,89 4 industri, gas dan air bersih 0,43 0,45 1,04 1,18 1,21 5 bangunan 7,71 7,76 7,90 8,26 8,64 6 perdag, hotel dan restoran 17,09 17,09 17,68 17,43 17,21 7 pengangkutan dan komunikasi 6,40 6,42 6,91 6,53 7,19 8 keu, persw, dan jasa pers 4,65 5,07 6,37 6,55 6,81 9 jasa-jasa 14,50 14,27 13,97 14,91 15,03 jumlah persen 100 100 100 100 100 sumber data: rpjmd bantul 2005 dan bantul dalam angka (2005) jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 11 25 18 disusun seperti tertuang dalam rpjm kabupaten bantul tahun 2006-2010 dan rpjp kabupaten bantul tahun 2006-2025, dan mengacu pada arahan pembangunan nasional maupun pembangunan regional, serta menggunakan basis data kondisi dan potensi yang masih dimiliki oleh wilayah kabupaten bantul pascagempa. 3. kontribusi sektor indikator lain yang digunakan untuk mengetahui bahwa suatu sektor merupakan sektor unggulan di kabupaten bantul adalah perbandingan antara kontribusi sektor tersebut terhadap perekonomian kabupaten bantul. indikator yang digunakan sebagai petunjuk dalam menentukan sektor unggulan adalah jika kontribusi sektor terhadap total pdrb kabupaten bantul lebih besar dari 10 persen, maka sektor tersebut memiliki peran besar terhadap perekonomian kabupaten bantul. untuk dapat melihat hasil analisis melalui metode lq ini dapat dilihat pada tabel 3. berdasarkan nilai lq sektor ekonomi kabupaten bantul dapat diketahui bahwa sumber-sumber perekonomian yang merupakan sektor unggulan dan menjadi sektor basis untuk mendukung pengembangan wilayah kabupaten bantul hingga tahun 2006, memperlihatkan bahwa di kabupaten bantul terdapat 4 sektor basis, yaitu sektor pertanian, sektor industri pengolahan, sektor perdagangan, hotel dan restoran, dan sektor tabel 2. perkembangan pdrb per kapita kabupaten bantul tahun 2002 – 2005 no tahun harga berlaku harga konstan tahun 2000 nilai (rp) pertumb. (%) nilai (rp) pertumb. (%) 1 2002 4.176.083 3.504.540 2 2003 4.633.381 10,95% 3.627.279 3,50% 3 2004 5.169.912 11,57% 3.757.004 3,57% 4 2005 5.919.788 14,50% 3.908.649 4,03% sumber: bps kabupaten bantul dalam rpjmd bantul 2005 dan bantul dalam angka 2005 tabel 3. analisis sektor ekonomi kabupaten bantul 2002-2006 no lapangan usaha lq 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 1 pertanian 1,25 1,2 1 1 1 2 pertambangan dan penggalian 0,05 0,05 0,05 0,05 0,05 3 industri pengolahan 1 1 0,98 0,98 0,98 4 listrik, gas, dan air bersih 0,04 0,04 0,04 0,04 0,04 5 bangunan 0,44 0,44 0,44 0,44 0,44 6 perdagangan, hotel & restoran 0,93 0,93 1 1 1 7 pengangkutan & komunikasi 0,33 0,33 0,33 0,33 0,33 8 keu, persewaan & jasa persh 0,31 0,31 0,31 0,31 0,31 9 jasa-jasa 0,66 0,66 0,66 0,66 0,66 sumber: hasil perhitungan dan analisis, 2007 strategi pengembangan sektor pertanian ... (agus tri basuki) 19 jasa-jasa, dimana pada sektor-sektor ini nilai lq-nya adalah > 1. dalam kurun waktu antara tahun 2002-2006, sektor basis/unggulan di kabupaten bantul tidak banyak berubah, terkecuali adanya fluktuasi (peningkatan dan penurunan) nilai lq pada setiap sektornya, namun fluktuasi tersebut hanya dalam jumlah yang relatif kecil. pada sisi lain, masuknya 4 (empat) sektor ini ke dalam sektor basis, sangatlah relevan sektor tersebut dalam membentuk pdrb kabupaten bantul yang begitu dominan. dengan mengamati besarnya kontribusi setiap sektor dalam kurun waktu di atas, dapat dikelompokkan bahwa sektor yang kemungkinan memiliki kekuatan untuk menyokong perekonomian kabupaten bantul adalah sektor-sektor yang memberikan kontribusi lebih besar dari 10 persen, seperti yang telah disajikan pada bagian sebelumnya. 5. laju pertumbuhan sektor unggulan di kabupaten bantul sektor unggulan di kabupaten bantul cenderung didominasi oleh kegiatan yang notabene berkembang di kawasan perkotaan. hal ini menunjukkan karakteristik, yang kuat mengenai perkembangan perekonomian kabupaten bantul dalam skala regional. sektor pertanian merupakan sektor yang memiliki peranan paling besar dan memiliki keunggulan yang relatif tinggi dibandingkan sektor lainnya, dimana pada tahun 2002 laju pertumbuhannya mencapai angka 25,78 persen terhadap perekonomian kabupaten bantul. selanjutnya diikuti oleh sektor. industri pengolahan, perdagangan, hotel dan restoran serta jasa jasa yang memiliki laju pertumbuhan kedua, ketiga dan keempat dalam menumbuhkan perekonomian kabupaten bantul. tumbuhnya sektor-sektor tersebut berkaitan erat dengan posisi kabupaten bantul yang berada di selatan propinsi d.i.y yang dilalui jalur jalan utama menuju objek pariwisata nasional parangtritis serta fungsi dan perannya sebagai penyangga kebutuhan pangan dan pemasok hasil industri untuk provinsi. dalam perkembangan selanjutnya, seluruh sektor unggulan tersebut perlu dipacu pertumbuhannya sehingga perekonomian kabupaten bantul memiliki kekuatan untuk memposisikan wilayahnya sebagai kabupaten bantul sesuai dengan visi dan misi yang diembannya. dengan mengamati laju pertumbuhan yang ada, sektor industri pengolahan, perdagangan, hotel dan restoran tabel 4. laju pertumbuhan sektor unggulan di kabupaten bantul 2002-2006 adh 2000 no sektor persentase pertumbuhan per-tahun rerata (%) 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 1 pertanian 25,78 25,15 24,8 24,48 24,72 24,99 2 pertambangan & penggaiian 1,19 1,18 1,06 1,01 1,03 1,09 3 industri pengolahan 20, 17 20,33 20,29 20,12 17,03 19,65 4 listrik, gas & air bersih 0,75 0,77 0,86 0,9 0,91 0,84 5 bangunan 8,11 8,16 8,32 8,35 11,47 8,88 6 perdagangan, hotel, resto 18,44 18,53 18,81 18,86 18,79 18,69 7 pengangkt & komunikasi 6,6 6,67 6,65 6,88 6,23 6,61 8 keua, persewaan & jasa pers 5,57 5,93 6,06 6,38 6,62 6,11 9 jasa-jasa 13,08 13,28 13,17 13,02 13,2 13,15 jumlah 100 100 100 100 100 100, 00 sumber: bps kab. bantul, 2006 dan hasil analisis, 2007 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 11 25 20 serta jasa-iasa merupakan sektor yang memiliki laju yang lebih tinggi dibandingkan sektor lainnya. kondisi ini sesuai dengan kedudukan kabupaten bantul sebagai kawasan pertanian, kota industri, perdagangan dan jasa yang telah terbentuk pada beberapa bagian wilayah kota/kabupaten. lebih jelasnya laju pertumbuhan sektor unggulan di kabupaten bantul dapat dilihat pada tabel 4. apabila dilihat dari persentase laju pertumbuhan pertahunnya, maka untuk kecenderungan di masa yang akan datang sektorsektor unggulan ini akan terus meningkat pertumbuhannya. hal ini berkaitan pula dengan karakteristik wilayah kabupaten bantul yang pertama: memang memiliki kawasan andalan pertanian dan produktivitas yang semakin meningkat pertahunnya, kedua: seluruh jenis dan macam industri yang tidak pernah mati keberadaaannya dan semakin berkembang seiring dengan permintaan ekspor baik domestik maupun mancanegara, ketiga: perdagangan, hotel dan restoran yang kebutuhannya semakin bertambah seiring dengan bertambahnya jumlah penduduk lokal dan semakin minatnya pendatan/ lpengunjung yang berdatangan ke wilayah bantul dengan berbagai kepentingan. dengan melihat kecenderungan ketiga hal tersebut, maka memungkinkan untuk sektor unggulan akan terus terpacu pertumbuhannya. hasil dan pembahasan pada bagian ini berisi kajian persebaran ekonomi dalam wilayah kabupaten bantul gang ditinjau berdasarkan analisis sektoral yang telah dilakukan pada bab sebelumnya. dengan melakukan kajian terhadap sektorsektor perekonomian yang berkembang diharapkan dapat diketahui pola perwilayahan komoditas di kabupaten bantul. dalam model ekonomi basis, perekonomian terbagi menjadi dua yaitu sektor basis dan non basis. untuk mengetahui sektor basis dan non basis digunakan metode perhitungan location quotient (lq). metode lq ini dapat mengidentifikasikan sektor yang terspesialisasi di wilayah yang bersangkutan. selain itu, dari metode lq ini dapat diketahui potensi sektor yang ada dalam wilayah yang bersangkutan untuk diekspor ke wilayah lainnya ataupun tidak (dalam arti hanya melayani/memenuhi kebutuhan sendiri). ada tiga kondisi dari kisaran nilai lq hasil perhitungan dengan metode in pada suatu wilayah, yaitu: 1. nilai lq > 1, spesialisasi tinggi maka sektor yang bersangkutan di samping dapat memenuhi kebutuhannya sendiri juga memberikan peluang untuk diekspor ke wilayah lainnya. dapat dikatakan pula bahwa wilayah tersebut terspesialisasi pada sektor yang bersangkutan (sektor basis); 2. jika nilai lq = 1, self sufficient, spesialisasi sama maka sektor yang bersangkutan hanya dapat memenuhi kebutuhan wilayah itu sendiri; 3. jika nilai lq < 1, spesialisasi rendah maka sektor yang bersangkutan tidak cukup untuk memenuhi kebutuhan wilayahnya sendiri. dapat dikatakan juga bahwa wilayah tersebut tidak terspesialisasi pada sektor tersebut. strategi pengembangan sektor pertanian ... (agus tri basuki) 21 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 11 25 22 hasil perhitungan location quotient (lq) yang ditunjukkan pada tabel 5 mengindikasikan bahwa sektor basis yang memiliki potensi besar untuk ekspor adalah produk pertanian. dengan kata lain sektor pertanian merupakan sektor basis/sektor unggulan yang mampu memenuhi kebutuhan wilayah bantul sendiri dan berpeluang untuk di ekspor ke luar wilayah. hampir sebagian besar kecamatan di bantul memiliki nilai lq di sektor pertanian lebih besar dari 1 yang berarti terspesialisasi tinggi. berdasarkan tabel 5 dapat diketahui bahwa spesialisasi (basis) sektor pertanian yang tinggi pada daerah bantul mengindikasikan bahwa banyak lahan yang digunakan sebagai basis pertanian. nilai lq tertinggi berada di kecamatan piyungan dan dlingo, sehingga peluang terbesar pengembangan sektor pertanian dapat dilakukan di kecamatan piyungan dan dlingo yang telah siap untuk memenuhi kebutuhan wilayah itu sendiri dan wilayah lain. dari 17 kecamatan, 9 kecamatan di antaranya yang memiliki basis/unggulan di sektor pertanian antara lain srandakan, sanden, pundong, bambanglipuro, jetis, dlingo, piyungan, pajangan, dan sedayu. tabel 6. hasil sektor basis kecamatan di kabupaten bantul no kecamatan sektor basis 1. srandakan pertanian, industri 2. sanden pertanian, industri, keuangan, dan ’persewaan dan jasa perusahaan’ 3. kretek perdagangan, hotel dan restauran, ‘keuangan, persewaan dan jasa perusahaan’, jasa dan bangunan 4. pundong pertanian 5. bambang lipuro pertanian, ‘perdagangan, hotel dan restauran’ dan ‘keuangan, persewaan dan jasa perusahaan’ 6. pandak bangunan 7. bantul industri, ‘perdagangan, hotel & restauran’, ‘keuangan, persewaan & jasa perusahaan’, jasa, ‘transport & komunkasi’ dan bangunan 8. jetis pertanian, ‘perdagangan, hotel & restauran’, 9. imogiri industri 10. dlingo pertanian, industri 11. pleret ‘transport & komunkasi’, bangunan 12. piyungan pertanian, ‘keuangan, persewaan & jasa perusahaan’ 13. banguntapan industri, ‘perdagangan, hotel & restauran’, ‘keuangan, persewaan & jasa perusahaan’, jasa, ‘transport & komunkasi’, bangunan 14. sewon industri, ‘perdagangan, hotel & restauran’, jasa, ‘transport & komunkasi’, bangunan 15. kasihan ‘perdagangan, hotel & restauran’, jasa, ‘transport & komunkasi’, bangunan 16. pajangan pertanian 17. sedayu pertanian sumber: hasil olah data dan analisis, 2007 strategi pengembangan sektor pertanian ... (agus tri basuki) 23 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 11 25 24 sektor lain yang mampu menyangga perekonomian wilayah di beberapa kecamatan di bantul adalah ‘bangunan’, ‘industri’, ‘perdagangan, hotel, dan restaurant’, dan ‘keuangan, persewaan dan jasa perusahaan’. ketiga sektor tersebut merupakan sektor basis di beberapa kecamatan di bantul. dari 17 kecamatan di bantul hampir setengahnya berbasis pada sektor bangunan, industri, perdagangan, hotel, dan restoran, dan keuangan, persewaan dan jasa perusahaan. dengan mengamati tabel 5, maka besarnya kontribusi setiap sektor di kecamatan bantul pada tahun 2006 dapat dikelompokkan bahwa sektor yang memiliki kekuatan untuk menyokong perekonomian kabupaten bantul adalah sektor yang memiliki nilai lq>1. adanya 5 (lima) sektor ini (1. pertanian, 2. bangunan, 3. industri, 4. perdagangan, hotel, dan restourant, dan 5. keuangan, persewaan dan jasa perusahaan) ke dalam sektor basis/unggulan, sangat relevan jika sektor tersebut membentuk pdrb di kabupaten bantul yang begitu dominan. adanya kelima sektor yang menjadi sektor basis diharapkan sektor basis berkembang cepat di kabupaten bantul dan pada gilirannya akan meningkatkan pula kegiatan sektor non basis. kesimpulan dari tabel 8 dapat disimpulkan bahwa pada sebagian besar kecamatan, basis pertanian menjadi prioritas utama dan pada kecamatan yang lain lebih condong ke basis non pertanian. hal ini dapat diketahui dari persebaran tabel 8. tabel analisis lq sektor basis pertanian no kecamatan sektor basis 1. srandakan perkebunan 2. sanden sayuran, perkebunan 3. kretek sayuran, buah-buahan 4. pundong padi, ketela, kacang tanah 5. bambang lipuro padi, kedelai, kacang tanah 6. pandak padi, kedelai, kacang tanah 7. bantul kedelai, perkebunan 8. jetis padi, kedelai, kacang tanah 9. imogiri padi, kedelai, ketela 10. dlingo ketela, sayuran, buah-buahan, tanaman obat 11. pleret padi, jagung, kacang tanah 12. piyungan jagung, ketela, buah-buahan, tanaman obat 13. banguntapan padi, kacang tanah 14. sewon padi, jagung, kacang tanah 15. kasihan padi, buah-buahan, perkebunan 16. pajangan jagung, kedelai, ketela 17. sedayu ketela, buah-buahan sumber: hasil olah data dan analisis, 2007 strategi pengembangan sektor pertanian ... (agus tri basuki) 25 nilai lq di atas 1 yang hampir ada di setiap kecamatan, ini berarti hampir seluruh kecamatan di kabupaten bantul sudah dapat terpenuhi kebutuhan wilayahnya melalui sektor pertanian dan bahkan siap untuk di ekspor ke wilayah lain. secara rinci di kecamatan piyungan jenis tanaman yang menjadi unggulan dalam memberikan kontribusinya di wilayah tersebut adalah ketela, jagung, buah-buahan dan tanaman obat. sedangkan di kecamatan dlingo jenis yang menjadi unggulan adalah sayuran, tanaman obat, ketela, dan buah-buahan. jenis tanaman padi yang menjadi basis di sektor pertanian berada di kecamatan sewon, banguntapan, jetis, pandak, imogiri, pundong, kasihan, pleret dan bambanglipuro. padi merupakan tanaman yang menjadi basis di beberapa kecamatan, lebih dari setengah kecamatan di bantul menjadikan padi sebagai tanaman unggulan sebagai pemenuh kebutuhan perekonomian. tanaman lain yang berpotensi sebagai sektor basis adalah ketela, kacang tanah dan kedelai. daftar pustaka aronoft, s. 1989. geographic informations system: a manajement perspective. ottawa, canada: wdl publications. lincolin, arsyad. 1999. pengantar perencanaan dan pengembangan ekonomi daerah. yogyakarta: bpfe. bendavid, avrom. 1991. regional and economy analysis for practitioner. new york: praeger publisher. blakely, edward j. 1994. planning local economic development theory and practice. 2th edition. california: sage publication inc. borrough, pa. 1988. principle of geograptical information system for land reserses assessment. new york: oxford university press. jhingan. m.l. 1993. ekonomi pembangunan dan perencanaan. jakarta: pt raja grafindo persada. prayitno. 2000. pengantar sistem informasi geografi. fakultas geografi universitas gadjah mada. yogyakarta. tarigan, robinson. 2005. perencanaan pembangunan wilayah. edisi revisi. jakarta: bumi aksara. microsoft word 03-agus tb _17 hlm_.doc jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan  volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 34 ‐ 50  penentu sektor unggulan dalam   pembangunan daerah:  studi kasus di kabupaten ogan komering ilir  agus tri basuki 1 dan utari gayatri 1  1 fakultas ekonomi universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta  jalan lingkar selatan, kasihan bantul diy 55183 telepon +62 274 387656  e‐mail: agustribasuki@yahoo.com  abstrak: penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi sektor dominan di kabupaten ogan komering ilir (oki). dengan menggunakan pendekatan analisis mrp, shift share, lq, dan tipologi overlay dan klassen dapat disimpulkan bahwa potensi ekonomi yang dimiliki kabupaten ogan komering ilir adalah sektor pertanian dan industri manufaktur yang merupakan pertumbuhan sektor dominan. selain itu, sektor ini juga menunjukkan peningkatan struktur pertumbuhan ekonomi. hal ini mengingat sebagian besar penduduk di wilayah kabupaten oki masih terlibat dalam pertanian, sehingga pertanian memiliki pertumbuhan yang luar biasa daripada sektor ekonomi lainnya. selain itu, industri manufaktur juga merupakan sektor ekonomi dengan pertumbuhan yang luar biasa. industri manufaktur ini di antaranya industri kemplang dan pempek yang banyak berkembang di provinsi sumatera selatan dan kabupaten oki. kata kunci: potensi ekonomi, sektor unggulan, pembangunan ekonomi, struktur ekonomi abstract: this study aims to identify the dominant sector in komering ogan ilir. by using the analytical approach of mrp, shift share, lq, overlay and klassen typology can be concluded that the economic potential held komering ogan ilir is the agricultural sector and the manufacturing industry which is the dominant sector growth. in addition, the sector also showed an increase of the structure of economic growth. it is given that most residents in the area of oki regency is still engaged in agriculture, so agriculture has an outstanding growth of other sectors. in addition, the manufacturing industry has also an outstanding growth among manufacturing kemplang and pempek industries that thriving in south sumatra province and district oki. keywords: economic potential, the leading sectors, economic development, economic structure pendahuluan  pembangunan daerah sebagai bagian integral  dari pembangunan nasional yang dilaksana‐ kan berdasarkan prinsip otonomi daerah dan  pengaturan  sumber  daya  nasional  yang  memberikan  kesempatan  bagi  peningkatan  demokrasi dan kinerja daerah untuk mening‐ katkan kesejahteraan masyarakat. oleh kare‐ na itu, pembangunan ekonomi daerah meru‐ pakan  bagian  dari  pembangunan  daerah  secara menyeluruh.  dalam  upaya  mencapai  tujuan  pemba‐ ngunan  ekonomi  daerah,  kebijakan  utama  yang perlu dilakukan adalah mengusahakan  semaksimal  mungkin  agar  prioritas  pemba‐ penentu sektor unggulan  ... (agus tb. dan utari g.)  35 ngunan  daerah  sesuai  dengan  potensi  pem‐ bangunan yang dimiliki oleh daerah. hal ini  terkait  dengan  potensi  pembangunan  yang  dimiliki  setiap  daerah  sangat  bervariasi,  maka setiap daerah harus menentukan kegia‐ tan sektor ekonomi yang dominan (syafrizal,  1999).  kebijakan  pembangunan  ekonomi  dae‐ rah  yang  ditetapkan  di  suatu  daerah  harus  disesuaikan dengan kondisi  (masalah, kebu‐ tuhan, dan potensi) daerah yang bersangku‐ tan. oleh karena itu, penelitian yang menda‐ lam tentang keadaan tiap daerah harus dila‐ kukan untuk mendapatkan data dan informa‐ si yang berguna bagi penentuan perencanaan  pembangunan  daerah  yang  bersangkutan  (arsyad,  1999).  perencanaan  pembangunan  ekonomi yang baik membutuhkan suatu pe‐ rencanaan  yang  teliti  dalam  menggunakan  sumber‐sumber daya publik dan swasta serta  sektor‐sektor  yang  berperan  dalam  proses  perencanaan.  melalui  perencanaan  pemba‐ ngunan ekonomi daerah yang  terarah, pem‐ bayar  pajak,  dan  penanaman  modal  serta  penciptaan iklim dari kegiatan ekonomi yang  baik maka pembangunan suatu daerah dapat  dikatakan  sebagai  satu  unit  kesatuan  yang  memiliki keterkaitan antara satu sama lain.  berkaitan dengan hal tersebut, pemerin‐ tah  daerah  dalam  pembangunan  ekonomi  dan  pelaksanaan  otonomi  daerah  mengacu  pada uu no. 22 tahun 1999 dan uu no. 25  tahun  1999  yang  kemudian  diganti  dengan  uu  no.  32  tahun  2004  tentang  pemerintah  daerah dan uu no. 33 tahun 2004  tentang  perimbangan  keuangan  antara  pemerintah  pusat dan pemerintah daerah.   daerah yang otonom mempunyai kewe‐ nangan  untuk  mengatur  dan  melayani  kepentingan masyarakat berdasarkan aspirasi  masyarakat  serta  merencanakan  pembangu‐ nan  yang  sesuai  dengan  peraturan  perun‐ dang‐undangan.  berdasarkan  hal  tersebut,  daerah perlu memiliki konsep utama dalam  perencanaan  pembangunan  daerah  yang  memuat  dasar  filosofi,  visi,  misi,  arah  kebi‐ jakan,  dan  strategi  pembangunan  sebagai  pedoman  bagi  penyelenggaraan  pemerin‐ tahan  dan  pengelolaan  pembangunan  di  daerah. oleh karena  itu, disadari bahwa pe‐ laksanaan  pembangunan  daerah  bukan  me‐ rupakan  tanggung  jawab  pemerintah  secara  kesuluruhan  tetapi  merupakan  tanggung  jawab  semua  pihak  dan  masyarakat  kabu‐ paten  ogan  komering  ilir,  sehingga  hasil  yang diperoleh dapat bermanfaat bagi semua  pihak.  perkembangan  pendapatan  riil  yang  diterima  oleh  penduduk  ditunjukkan  oleh  pendapatan regional per kapita. pendapatan  per  kapita  merupakan  salah  satu  indikator  ekonomi  yang  biasa  digunakan  untuk  me‐ ngukur  tingkat  kemakmuran  di  suatu  wila‐ yah.  dalam  hal  ini,  pdrb  per  kapita  juga  meruakan gambaran nilai tambah penduduk  karena aktivitas antara pdrb per kapita dan  pendapatan  per  kapita  dari  tahun  ke  tahun  yang  mengalami  peningkatan.  pendapatan  domestik  regional  bruto  (pdrb),  dihitung  atas dasar harga berlaku dan harga konstan.  pdrb  atas  harga  berlaku  mengambarkan  nilai  tambah barang dan  jasa yang dihitung  setiap  tahun,  sedangkan  pdrb  atas  harga  konstan  menunjukkan  nilai  tambah  barang  dan  jasa yang dihitung pada satu tahun ter‐ tentu  sebagai  dasar.  dalam  hal  ini,  perhi‐ tungan menggunakan tahun 2000. kegunaan  pdrb  atas  harga  konstan  untuk  menunjuk‐ kan  laju  pertumbuhan  ekonomi  secara  keseluruhan atau setiap sektor dari tahun ke  tahun, sedangkan kegunaan pdrb atas harga  berlaku  untuk  melihat  besarnya  struktur  perekonomian  dalam  satu  daerah  atau  wilayah.  dilihat  dari  pendapatan  per  kapita  atas  harga konstan kabupaten ogan komering ilir  jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 34 ‐ 50 36  dengan migas dan tanpa migas selama kurun  waktu  2003‐2007  mengalami  peningkatan  dari tahun ke tahun. pada tahun 2003 sebesar  rp3.208.988 menjadi rp3.322.864 pada tahun  2004 atau meningkat 3,55 persen, sedangkan  pada tahun 2005 pendapatan per kapita sebe‐ sar  rp3.472.639  meningkat  4,51  persen.  peningkatan  yang  sama  juga  terjadi  pada  tahun  2007  sebesar  rp3.800.831  meningkat  meningkat 4,51 persen dibandingkan dengan  tahun 2006 sebesar rp3.636.894.   pembangunan di kabupaten ogan kome‐ ring  ilir  mengalami  perkembangan  yang  semakin  baik,  hal  ini  ditunjukkan  dengan  terus  meningkatnya  angka  pertumbuhan  ekonomi kabupaten ogan komering ilir dari  tahun  ke  tahun,  khususnya  di  tahun  2007  peningkatan  perekonomian  tidak  hanya  dirasakan di tingkat regional tetapi juga pada  tingkat  nasional.  adanya  peningkatan  ini  ditunjukkan dengan kenaikan angka pertum‐ buhan ekonomi yang terjadi di seluruh lapa‐ ngan  usaha  atau  sektor  ekonomi.  pertum‐ buhan  ekonomi  kabupaten  ogan  komering  ilir yang diukur dengan pdrb menunjukkan  bahwa perkembangannya cukup stabil.   dari uraian latar belakang di atas, penu‐ lis terdorong untuk menganalisis dan meng‐ kaji  lebih  lanjut mengenai sektor‐sektor eko‐ nomi  di kabupaten ogan komering ilir, pro‐ vinsi sumatera selatan.  mengingat ruang lingkup pembangunan  ekonomi  daerah  sangat  luas  maka  penulis  membatasi  pembahasan  masalah  pada  sek‐ tor‐sektor  ekonomi  yang  ada  di  kabupaten  ogan komering ilir dan data yang digunakan  adalah data tahunan dari tahun 2003 sampai  dengan tahun 2007.  tujuan penelitian ini untuk menganalisis  dan mengetahui sektor‐sektor ekonomi yang  menjadi  sektor  unggulan  dalam  pembangu‐ nan daerah di kabupaten ogan komering ilir  dengan menggunakan beberapa alat analisis  alternatif, dan untuk mengetahui pertumbu‐ han sektor‐sektor ekonomi berdasarkan kon‐ disi pdrb di kabupaten ogan komering ilir  menggunakan analisis model rasio pertum‐ buhan (mrp).  perencanaan  pembangunan  ekonomi  daerah.  perencanaan  adalah  suatu  proses  yang bersinambung yang mencakup keputu‐ san‐keputusan  atau  pilihan‐pilihan  berbagai  alternatif  penggunaan  sumber  daya  untuk  mencapai  tujuan  tertentu  pada  masa  yang  akan datang (conyers & hill, 1994).   tujuan perencanaan menurut hatta ada‐ lah mengadakan suatu perekonomian nasio‐ nal  yang  diatur,  yang  direncanakan  tujuan‐ nya  dan  jalannya.  sedangkan  menurut  widjojo nitisastro, perencanaan pada dasar‐ nya berkaitan dengan dua hal yaitu pertama  adalah penentuan pilihan yang hendak dica‐ pai  dalam  jangka  waktu  tertentu  atas  dasar  nilai yang dimiliki masyarakat yang bersang‐ kutan. kedua,  pilihan‐pilihan  di  antara  cara‐ cara  alternatif  yang  efisien  guna  mencapai  tujuan tertentu. dalam hal ini, untuk penen‐ tuan  tujuan  yang  meliputi  jangka  waktu  tertentu  maupun  bagi  pemilihan  cara‐cara  tersebut  diperlukan  kriteria  tertentu  yang  sebelumnya harus dipilih terlebih dahulu.   perencanaan ekonomi terdiri atas sedere‐ tan  fungsi  kewenangan  masyarakat  dalam  menggunakan  sumber  daya  ekonomi  secara  optimal untuk mencapai suatu tatanan yang  lebih  baik.  dengan  demikian,  perencanaan  ekonomi merupakan pengaturan dan penga‐ rahan  atas  suatu  kegiatan  ekonomi  melalui  tindakan yang terkoordinasi secara sistematis  oleh badan perencanaan pusat dengan tujuan  tertentu dalam periode waktu tertentu.  perencanaan  pembangunan  ekonomi  daerah  bukanlah  perencanaan  dari  suatu  daerah. perencanaan pembangunan ekonomi  daerah  bisa  dianggap    sebagai  perencanaan  untuk  memperbaiki  kapasitas  sektor  swasta  penentu sektor unggulan  ... (agus tb. dan utari g.)  37 dalam  menciptakan  nilai  sumber‐sumber  daya swasta secara bertanggung jawab (kun‐ coro, 2004).   dari sudut pandang ekonomi, perlu ada‐ nya  perencanaan  pembangunan  ekonomi  adalah agar alokasi sumberdaya‐sumberdaya  pembangunan yang  lebih efisien dan efektif  sehingga  pemborosan  dapat  dihindari,  per‐ kembangan ekonomi atau pertumbuhan eko‐ nomi  yang  mantap  dan  berkesinambungan,  dan  tercapainya  stabilitas  ekonomi  dalam  menghadapi globalisasi.  sumber daya perencanaan untuk pem‐ bangunan  daerah.  kebanyakan  orang  me‐ ngetahui  bahwa  hasil  dari  suatu  pertumbu‐ han  ekonomi  adalah  pekerjaan  yang  lebih  banyak dan lebih baik, peningkatan kekayaan  dan pendapatan, dan sebagainya akan mem‐ perbaiki  tingkat  kehidupan  masyarakat.  namun  demikian,  disadari  bahwa  pemba‐ ngunan  ekonomi  adalah  suatu  proses  di  mana suatu masyarakat menciptakan lingku‐ ngan  fisik  atau  peraturan  yang  mempenga‐ ruhi  hasil‐hasil  pembangunan  ekonomi  seperti  kenaikan  kesempatan  kerja  dan  pertumbuhan ekonomi (arsyad, 1999). maka  pemerintah  daerah  menggunakan  berbagai  sumber daya yang utama dalam pembangu‐ nan daerahnya: 1) lingkungan fisik sebagai  sumber  daya  perencanaan,  2)  lingkungan  regulasi sebagai sumber daya perencanaan,  3)  lingkungan  attitudinal  sebagai  sumber  daya perencanaan.  keputusan  yang  diambil  sektor  swasta  mengenai investasi atau relokasi tidak hanya  didasarkan pada perkataan kasar para inves‐ tor  yang  tidak  dimengerti  oleh  masyarakat  atau penduduk suatu daerah. dalam kenya‐ taannya,  keputusan  akhir  akan sangat dipe‐ ngaruhi juga oleh semacam feeling atau judg‐ ment para investor mengenai reaksi masyara‐ kat  daerah  sebagai  calon  lokasi  investasi  karena dunia usaha tidak akan memilih suatu  daerah tertentu karena penduduknya.  pembangunan  daerah  di  era  otonomi.  ditetapkannya  undang‐undang  no.  32  ta‐ hun  2004  tentang  pemerintah  daerah  dan  undang‐undang no. 33 tahun 2004 tentang  perimbangan  keuangan  antara  pemerintah  pusat dan pemerintah daerah, telah membe‐ rikan  kewenangan  bagi  pemerintah  daerah  untuk  menyelenggarakan  pemerintahannya  sendiri untuk lebih memajukan dan melaku‐ kan pembangunan di daerah masing‐masing.  menurut undang‐undang no. 32 tahun  2004  “daerah  otonom  adalah  kesatuan  ma‐ syarakat  hukum  yang mempunyai  batas‐ba‐ tas yang berwenang mengatur dan mengurus  urusan  pemerintahan  dan  kepentingan  masyarakat setempat menurut prakarsa sen‐ diri  berdasarkan  aspirasi  masyarakat  dalam  sistem  negara  kesatuan  republik  indone‐ sia”.   menurut undang‐undang no. 32 tahun  2004  “otonomi  daerah  adalah  hak,  wewe‐ nang,  dan  kewajiban  daerah  otonom  untuk  mengatur  dan  mengurus  sendiri  urusan  pemerintahan  dan  kepentingan  masyarakat  setempat  sesuai  dengan  peraturan  perun‐ dang‐undangan”.   berdasarkan  undang‐undang  tersebut,  maka masing‐masing daerah dituntut untuk  lebih  mandiri  dalam  menjalankan  proses  pembangunan daerahnya. antara lain dalam  perencanaan,  pelaksanaan,  pengawasan,  pengendalian dan evaluasi kebijakan pemba‐ ngunan.  maka  setiap  daerah  harus  mampu  berkreasi  dan  mengoptimalkan  outputnya  guna  meningkatkan  kemajuan  dan  keman‐ dirian daerah serta meningkatkan kesejahte‐ raan masyarakat di daerahnya.  aparatur  pemerintah  yang  berkemam‐ puan,  sehingga  masyarakat  secara  nyata  memperoleh  manfaat  dari  adanya  otonomi.  agar tujuan dan usaha pembangunan daerah  jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 34 ‐ 50 38  dapat berhasil dengan baik maka pemerintah  daerah  perlu  berfungsi  dengan  baik.  oleh  karena itu, pembangunan daerah juga meru‐ pakan usaha mengembangkan dan memper‐ kuat  pemerintahan  daerah  dalam  rangka  penyelenggaraan otonomi daerah.   otonomi daerah. istilah otonomi (auto‐ nomy) berasal dari bahasa yunani, yaitu auto  berarti  sendiri  dan  nomous  berarti  hukum.  otonomi itu sendiri mengandung arti pembe‐ rian wewenang dalam mengambil keputusan  dan  pengelolaan  berdasarkan  peraturan  pe‐ rundang‐undangan  yang  berlaku.  jadi,  oto‐ nomi  daerah  adalah  penataan  penyelengga‐ raan  pemerintahan  daerah  untuk  melaksa‐ nakan  dan  mengelola  daerahnya  masing‐ masing sesuai dengan peraturan yang berla‐ ku.  pengertian otonomi daerah adalah kewe‐ nangan daerah otonom untuk mengatur dan  mengurus rumah  tangga daerah yang mele‐ kat pada negara kesatuan maupun kesatuan  maupun  negara  federal.  sedangkan  daerah  otonomi adalah kesatuan masyarakat hukum  yang mempunyai batas daerah  tertentu ber‐ wenang  mengatur  dan  mengurus  kepenti‐ ngan masyarakat setempat menurut prakarsa  sendiri  berdasarkan  aspirasi  masyarakat  dalam  ikatan  negara  kesatuan  republik  indonesia.   otonomi daerah pada hakekatnya berke‐ naan  dengan  pelimpahan  wewenang  pe‐ ngambilan  keputusan  strategis,  serta  penga‐ turan  kegiatan  dalam  rangka  penyelengga‐ raan pemerintah dan pelayanan masyarakat.  peranan pemerintah daerah dalam menggali  dan  mengembangkan  berbagai  potensi  dae‐ rah sebagai sumber penerimaan daerah akan  sangat menentukan keberhasilan pelaksanaan  tugas  pemerintah  dalam  pembangunan  dan  pelayanan masyarakat. keberhasilan otonomi  daerah  memerlukan  kesiapan  pemerintah  daerah  di  segala  bidang,  terutama  kesiapan  sumber  daya  manusia  yang  mampu  menja‐ wab  tantangan  dalam  pelaksanaan  otonomi  daerah, guna memberdayakan potensi daerah  yang ada (suwandi, 2000).  otonomi daerah sesuai dengan undang‐ undang no.32 tahun 2004 yang didasarkan  pada prinsip‐prinsip: pertama, negara indone‐ sia adalah negara kesatuan, dan oleh karena‐ nya hubungan antara pemerintah pusat dan  pemerintah  daerah  sudah  tentu  dalam  kerangka negara kesatuan,   kedua,  di  dalam  negara  kesatuan  tidak  dibenarkan adanya negara di dalam negara,   ketiga,  mengingat  adanya  perbedaan  dalam  tingkat  perkembangan  antardaerah,  maka pengaturan hubungan antara pemerin‐ tah pusat dan pemerintah daerah dilaksana‐ kan melalui desentralisasi, dekonsentrasi dan  tugas  pembantuan,  sedangkan  pelaksanaan‐ nya  disesuaikan  dengan  permasalahan  atau  urusan  yang  dihadapi  serta  tingkatan  per‐ kembangan daerah.  keempat, otonomi daerah itu bukan me‐ rupakan  tujuan  akhir  karena  adanya  tujuan  adanya daerah otonomi adalah sama dengan  tujuan negara, dan otonomi merupakan cara  untuk mencapai tujuan itu. dalam rangka itu  otonomi daerah harus  menguntungkan bagi  masyarakat di daerah yang bersangkutan dan  bagi  bangsa  dan  negara  kesatuan  secara  keseluruhan.  dalam  rangka  otonomi  daerah  sangat  jelas  bahwa  kepemimpinan  dari  pemerintah  pusat memerlukan visi untuk lebih memaju‐ kan  perekonomian  suatu  daerah.  visi  oto‐ nomi  daerah  dapat  dirumuskan  dalam  tiga  ruang lingkup, yaitu:  di bidang politik, otonomi daerah merupakan  hasil  dari  kebijakan  desentralisasi  dan  de‐ mokratisasi,  sehingga  dapat  dipahami  seba‐ gai  sebuah  proses  mekanisme  pengambilan   keputusan yang taat pada asas pertanggung‐ jawaban publik.  penentu sektor unggulan  ... (agus tb. dan utari g.)  39 di  bidang  ekonomi,  terbukanya  peluang  bagi  pemerintah  daerah  dalam  mengembangkan  kebijakan regional dan lokal untuk mengop‐ timalkan  pendayagunaan  potensi  ekonomi  daerah.  di  bidang  sosial  dan  budaya,  otonomi  harus  dapat  dikelola  sebaik  mungkin  demi  men‐ ciptakan  dan  memelihara  dinamika  kehi‐ dupan di sekitarnya.  otonomi  daerah  bukan  diartikan  hanya  sebagai  proses  administrasi  politik  yang  berupa  pelimpahan  wewenang  pembangu‐ nan  dan  pemerintahan  kepada  pemerintah  daerah,  melainkan  lebih  merupakan  suatu  proses pembangunan daerah sendiri dengan  segala  rangkaian  komitmen  dan  tanggung  jawab mengiringnya, yang menuntut kemam‐ puan  seluruh  apartur  pemerintah  daerah  di  dalam penguasaan substansi dan manajemen  pembangunan.  dalam  hal  ini,  perlu  diper‐ hatikan  unsur  yang  amat  penting  dalam  upaya  meningkatkan  otonomi  daerah,  yaitu  kemantapan  kelembagaan  dan  ketersediaan  sumber  daya  manusia  yang  memadai,  khu‐ susnya  aparatur  pemerintah,  serta  kemam‐ puan keuangan daerah untuk menggali sum‐ ber  pendapatannya  sendiri  (kartasasmita,  1996).   manfaat  otonomi  daerah  itu  sendiri  menurut machfud siddik adalah sebagai beri‐ kut:  1.  menyebarkan  pusat  pengambilan  keputusan  (decongestion).  apabila  semua  masalah  dile‐ takkan di tangan seseorang atau sekelompok  pengambilan  keputusan  saja,  maka  dapat  dipahami  akan  terjadi  pengumpulan  wewe‐ nang  pada  satu  pusat  pengambilan  kepu‐ tusan.  2.  kecepatan  dalam  pengambilan  keputusan  (speed). suatu masalah tidak perlu diputuskan  oleh  satu  pusat  pengambil  keputusan  saja,  tetapi  pengambilan  keputusan  ini  dapat  di‐ laksanakan  dengan  lebih  cepat.  apalagi  di  negara  sedang  berkembang,  dimana  trans‐ portasi  dan  komunikasi  tidak  selalu  lancar  maka  penyebaran  wewenang  kepada  lebih  sari satu pusat pengambilan keputusan akan  mempercepat pengambilan keputusan.  3. pengambilan keputusan yang realistis (econo‐ mic and social realism). dikarenakan pengam‐ bilan keputusan dibuat oleh pemerintah dae‐ rah  masing‐masing,  maka  keputusan  dapat  disesuaikan dengan kebutuhan daerah terse‐ but. hal ini dapat memperlancar pembangu‐ nan  di  daerah‐daerah  dan  kebutuhan  di  daerah tersebut dapat segera terpenuhi.  metode  analisis  model  rasio  pertumbuhan  (mrp)  analisis mrp merupakan alat analisis untuk  melihat  deskripsi  kegiatan  atau  sektor  eko‐ nomi yang potensial berdasarkan pada krite‐ ria  pertumbuhan  struktur  ekonomi  wilayah  baik eksternal maupun internal (yusuf, 1999).   model  analisis  ini  diturunkan  dari  per‐ samaan awal komponen utama dalam anali‐ sis shift and share yaitu differential shift dan  proportionality  shift.  secara  matematis  diffe‐ rential shift dapat ditulis sebagai berikut:  (t) ij (t) ir ir (t) ij ij ij e e e e δe d            (1)  dan  propotionality  shift  dapat  ditulis  secara  matematis sebagai berikut:  (t) ij (t) r r (t) ir ir ij e e e e δe p             (2)  sehingga dari persamaan di atas dipero‐ leh  rumus‐rumus  perhitungan  sebagai  beri‐ kut:  jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 34 ‐ 50 40  ∆eir = eir (t+n) – eir (t)   (3)  ∆er = er (t+n) – er (t)  (4)  keterangan;  ∆eij  adalah  perubahan  pendapa‐ tan kegiatan i di wilayah studi pada periode  waktu  t  dan  t+n;  ∆eir  adalah  perubahan  pendapatan  kegiatan  i  di  wilayah  referensi;  ∆er  adalah  perubahan  pdrb  di  wilayah  referensi; eij adalah pendapatan kegiatan i di  wilayah studi; eir adalah pendapatan kegia‐ tan i di wilayah referensi; er adalah pdrb di  wilayah  referensi,  t+n  adalah  tahun  antara  dua periode.  pendekatan analisis mrp ini dibagi men‐ jadi dua rasio, yaitu:  (1) rasio pertumbuhan  wilayah referensi (rpr) dan (2) rasio pertum‐ buhan wilayah studi (rps).  (1)  rasio  pertumbuhan  wilayah referensi (rpr). rpr  adalah perbandingan antara  laju  pertumbuhan  pendapatan  kegiatan  i  di  wilayah  referensi  dengan  laju  pertumbuhan  total kegiatan (pdrb) wilayah referensi.  )( )( tee tee rp rr irir r       (5)  keterangan; ∆eir adalah perubahan pendapa‐ tan kegiatan i di wilayah referensi, eir(t) ada‐ lah pendapatan kegiatan i awal periode pene‐ litian di wilayah referensi, ∆er adalah peru‐ bahan pdrb di wilayah referensi; er(t) adalah  pdrb pada awal penelitian wilayah referensi.  jika nilai rpr>1 þ positif (+), artinya me‐ nunjukkan bahwa pertumbuhan suatu sektor  tertentu dalam wilayah referensi lebih tinggi  dari  pertumbuhan  pdrb  total  wilayah  refe‐ rensi.  jika nilai rpr<1 þ negatif (‐), artinya me‐ nunjukkan bahwa pertumbuhan suatu sektor  tertentu  dalam  wilayah  referensi  lebih  kecil  dari  pertumbuhan  pdrb  total  wilayah  refe‐ rensi.  (2)  rasio  pertumbuhan  wilayah  studi  (rps).  rps  adalah  perbandingan  antara  laju  pertumbuhan  kegiatan  i  wilayah  studi  de‐ ngan  laju  pertumbuhan  kegiatan  i  wilayah  referensi.  )( )( teireir teijeij rps       (6)          keterangan; ∆eij adalah perubahan pendapa‐ tan kegiatan  i di wilayah studi, eij(t) adalah  pendapatan  kegiatan  i  pada  awal  periode  penelitian wilayah studi, ∆eir adalah peruba‐ han  pendapatan  kegiatan  i  di  wilayah  refe‐ rensi,  eir(t)  adalah  pendapatan  kegiatan  i  awal periode penelitian di wilayah referensi.  jika nilai rps>1 þ positif (+), artinya me‐ nunjukkan bahwa pertumbuhan sektor pada  tingkat wilayah studi lebih tinggi dibanding‐ kan dengan pertumbuhan sektor pada wila‐ yah referensi.  jika nilai rps<1 þ negatif (‐), artinya per‐ tumbuhan suatu sektor pada tingkat wilayah  studi lebih rendah dibandingkan dengan per‐ tumbuhan sektor tersebut pada wilayah refe‐ rensi.  hasil dari analisis mrp  ini dapat dikla‐ sifikasikan sebagai berikut:  klasifikasi 1, yaitu nilai rpr (+) dan rps (+)  berarti  kegiatan  tersebut  pada  tingkat  pro‐ vinsi mempunyai pertumbuhan yang menon‐ jol dan demikian pula pada tingkat kabupa‐ ten.  kegiatan  ini  selanjutnya  disebut  domi‐ nan pertumbuhan.  klasifikasi 2, yaitu nilai rpr (+) dan rps (‐)  berarti  kegiatan  tersebut  pada  tingkat  pro‐ vinsi  mempunyai  pertumbuhan  menonjol,  namun  pada  tingkat  kabupaten  belum  me‐ nonjol.  klasifikasi 3, yaitu nilai rpr (‐) dan rps (+)  berarti  kegiatan  tersebut  pada  tingkat  pro‐ vinsi mempunyai pertumbuhan tidak menon‐ penentu sektor unggulan  ... (agus tb. dan utari g.)  41 jol sementara pada tingkat kabupaten terma‐ suk menonjol.  klasifikasi 4, yaitu nilai rpr (‐) dan rps (‐)  berarti kegiatan tersebut pada tingkat provin‐ si dan pada  tingkat kabupaten   mempunyai  pertumbuhan rendah.  analisis shift share  analisis shift share merupakan teknik dalam  menganalisis  pertumbuhan  ekonomi  suatu  daerah sebagai perubahan atau peningkatan  suatu  indikator pertumbuhan perekonomian  suatu  wilayah  dalam  kurun  waktu  tertentu.  tujuan analisis ini adalah untuk menentukan  kinerja atau produktifitas kerja perekonomi‐ an  daerah  dibandingkan  dengan  perekono‐ mian di tingkat regional atau nasional.   analisis shift share ini membagi pertum‐ buhan sebagai perubahan (d) suatu variabel  daerah,  seperti  jumlah  tenaga  kerja,  nilai  tambah,  pendapatan  atau  output  selama  waktu  tertentu  menjadi  pengaruh‐pengaruh  pertumbuhan  nasional  (n),  bauran  industri/  industry mix (m) dan keunggulan kompetitif  (c). pengaruh pertumbuhan nasional disebut  proposional  shift  atau  bauran  komposisi,  dan  pengaruh keunggulan kompetitif dinamakan  differential  shift  atau  regional  share  (soepono,  1993).  persamaan dan komponen‐komponen  dalam analisis shift share sebagai berikut:  dij = nij + mij + cij   (7)  dalam  penelitian  ini  variabel‐variabel  yang digunakan adalah:  dij = e*ij – eij  (8)  nij = eij . rn  (9)  mij = eij (rin – rn)  (10)  cij = eij (rij – rn)  (11)  dimana: rij, rin, dan rn mewakili laju pertum‐ buhan  wilayah  kabupaten  dan  laju  pertum‐ buhan wilayah provinsi yang masing‐masing  didefinisikan sebagai berikut:  eij eijije rij )*(     (12)  ein einine rin )*(     (13)  en enne rn )*(     (14)  keterangan; eij adalah pendapatan sektor i di  wilayah  j  (kabupaten),  ein  adalah  pendapa‐ tan sektor i di wilayah n (provinsi), en adalah  pendapatan wilayah n (provinsi), e*ij adalah  pendapatan  tahun  terakhir,  rij  adalah  laju  pertumbuhan sektor  i di wilayah  j  (kabupa‐ ten), rin adalah laju pertumbuhan sektor i di  wilayah n (provinsi), rn adalah  laju pertum‐ buhan pendapatan di wilayah n (provinsi)  sehingga  didapat  persamaan  shift  share  untuk  sektor  i  di  wilayah  j  (soepono,  1993)  sebagai berikut:  dij=eij.rn+eij(rin‐rn)+eij(rij‐rin)  (15)  keterangan;  dij  adalah  perubahan  variabel  output sektor  i di wilayah  j, nij adalah per‐ tumbuhan ekonomi nasional, mij adalah bau‐ ran  industri sektor  i di wilayah  j, cij adalah  keunggulan kompetitif sektor  i di wilayah  j,  eij adalah pendapatan sektor i di wilayah j,   adapun dari rumus di atas diketahui ada  2 indikator dari hasil perhitungan shift share  dalam perekonomian suatu daerah, yaitu:  jika nilai dari komponen pergeseran pro‐ porsional  dari  sektor>0,  maka  sektor  yang  bersangkutan mengalami pertumbuhan yang  cepat dan memberikan pengaruh yang positif  kepada  perekonomian  daerah,  begitu  juga  sebaliknya.  jika nilai komponen pergeseran diferen‐ jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 34 ‐ 50 42  sial  suatu  sektor<0,  maka  keunggulan  kom‐ paratif dari sektor tersebut meningkat dalam  perekonomian yang lebih tinggi, begitu  juga  sebaliknya.  analisis  location quotient (lq)  analisis  lq  merupakan  suatu  alat  analisis  untuk  menunjukkan  basis  ekonomi  suatu  wilayah  terutama  dari  kriteria  kontribusi.  alat analisis  ini  juga dipakai untuk mengu‐ kur konsentrasi dari suatu kegiatan (industri)  dalam  suatu  daerah  itu  dengan  peranan  kegiatan atau  industri sejenis dalam pereko‐ nomian  regional  atau  nasional.  perhitungan  basis  tersebut  menggunakan  variabel  pdrb  wilayah  atas  suatu  kegiatan  dalam  struktur  ekonomi  wilayah.  rumus  menghitung  lq  (arsyad, 1999) adalah:  vtvi vtvi lq      (16)  keterangan:  lq  adalah  koefisien  location  quotient,  vi  adalah  pendapatan  sektor  i  di  suatu  daerah,  vt  adalah  pendapatan  total  daerah tersebut, vi adalah pendapatan sektor  i  secara  regional/nasional,  vt  adalah  penda‐ patan total regional/nasional  dari rumus di atas ada 3 kategori hasil  perhitungan  location  quotient  (lq)  dalam  perekonomian daerah, yaitu:  jika  nilai  lq>1,  maka  sektor  yang  ber‐ sangkutan  di  wilayah  studi  lebih  berspesia‐ lisasi dibandingkan dengan wilayah referen‐ si. artinya, sektor  tersebut dalam perekono‐ mian  daerah  di  wilayah  studi  memiliki  keunggulan  komparatif  dan  dikategorikan  sebagai sektor basis.  jika  nilai  lq<1,  maka  sektor  yang  ber‐ sangkutan di wilayah studi kurang berspesia‐ lisasi dibandingkan dengan wilayah referen‐ si.  sektor  tersebut  dikategorikan  sebagai  sektor nonbasis.  jika  nilai  lq=1,  maka  sektor  yang  ber‐ sangkutan baik di wilayah studi maupun di  wilayah referensi memiliki peningkatan.  analisis  overlay  analisis  overlay  ini  dimaksudkan  untuk  menentukan  sektor  atau  kegiatan  ekonomi  yang potensial berdasarkan kriteria pertum‐ buhan dan kriteria kontribusi dengan meng‐ abungkan  hasil  dari  metode  rasio  pertum‐ uhan  (mrp)  dan  metode  location  quotient  (lq). metode ini  mempunyai 4 (empat) peni‐ aian atau kemungkinan, yaitu:  pertumbuhan (+) dan kontribusi (+), me‐ unjukkan suatu kegiatan yang sangat domian  baik dari pertumbuhan maupun dari kontri‐ busi.  pertumbuhan  (+) dan kontribusi  (‐) me‐ nunjukkan  suatu  kegiatan  yang  pertumbu‐ hannya  dominan  tetapi  kontribusinya  kecil.  kegiatan ini perlu  lebih ditingkatkan kontri‐ businya untuk menjadi kegiatan yang domi‐ nan.  pertumbuhan  (‐) dan kontribusi  (+) me‐ nunjukkan  suatu  kegiatan  yang  pertumbu‐ hannya  kecil  tetapi  kontribusinya  besar.  kegiatan  ini  sangat  memungkinkan  bahwa  kegiatan sedang mengalami penurunan.  pertumbuhan  (‐)  dan  kontribusi  (‐)  me‐ nunjukkan suatu kegiatan yang tidak poten‐ sial baik dari kriteria pertumbuhan maupun  dari kontribusi.  analisis klassen typology  analisis  klassen  typology  digunakan  untuk  melihat gambaran tentang pola dan struktur  pertumbuhan  masing‐masing  sektor  ekono‐ mi.  gambaran  tentang  pola  dan  struktur  pertumbuhan  daerah  ini,  dapat  diperguna‐ kan untuk memperkirakan prospek pertum‐ penentu sektor unggulan  ... (agus tb. dan utari g.)  43 buhan  ekonomi  daerah  pada  masa  menda‐ tang.  selain  itu,  hal  tersebut  juga  dapat  dipergunakan  sebagai  bahan  pertimbangan  dalam  menentukan  kebijaksanaan  pemba‐ ngunan daerah.   menurut tipologi daerah, daerah dibagi  menjadi 4 klasifikasi, yaitu:  daerah  cepat  maju  dan  cepat  tumbuh  adalah daerah yang memiliki laju pertumbu‐ han ekonomi dan pendapatan perkapita yang  lebih tinggi dari rata‐rata wilayah.  daerah maju tapi tertekan adalah daerah  yang  memiliki  pendapatan  perkapita  yang  lebih tinggi, tetapi tingkat pertumbuhan eko‐ nominya lebih rendah dari rata‐rata.  daerah berkembang cepat adalah daerah  yang  memiliki  tingkat  pertumbuhan,  tetapi  tingkat perkapita lebih rendah dari rata‐rata.  daerah relatif tertinggal adalah daerah  yang memiliki tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi  dan pendapatan perkapita yang rendah.  dalam analisis terdapat empat klasifikasi  sektor‐sektor  ekonomi  yang  mempunyai  karakteristik yang berbeda yaitu, sektor tum‐ buh cepat (rapid growth sector), sektor tertekan  (retarded  sector),  sektor  sedang  tumbuh  (growing sector), sektor relatif tertinggal (rela‐ tively backward sector) yang dapat dilihat pada  tabel 1.  hasil dan pembahasan  analisis model rasio pertumbuhan  (mrp)  analisis mrp merupakan alat analisis untuk  melihat deskripsi kegiatan atau sektor ekono‐ mi yang potensial berdasarkan pada kriteria  pertumbuhan struktur ekonomi wilayah baik  eksternal maupun internal. model analisis ini  diturunkan dari persamaan awal komponen  utama dalam analisis shift share yaitu diffe‐ rential  shift  dan  proportionality  shift.  dalam  analisis  ini  terdapat dua  jenis rasio pertum‐ buhan yaitu rasio pertumbuhan wilayah re‐ ferensi (rpr) yaitu provinsi sumatera selatan  dan rasio pertumbuhan wilayah studi (rps)  yaitu kabupaten ogan komering ilir.  tabel 2 menyajikan hasil perhitungan dan  analisis mrp kabupaten ogan komering ilir  untuk melihat deskripsi kegiatan atau sektor  ekonomi  terutama  struktur  ekonomi  di  wilayah ini.  hasil perhitungan tersebut menunjukkan  bahwa sektor ekonomi yang mempunyai nilai  rpr positif (+) dan nilai rps positif (+) yaitu  sektor pertanian dan sektor industri pengolahan.  hal ini berarti pada periode tahun 2003‐2007,  sektor pertanian dan sektor industri pengola‐ han merupakan sektor yang potensial baik di  tingkat  provinsi  maupun  di  tingkat  kabu‐ tabel 1. klasifikasi sektor ekonomi menurut klassen typology                y  r  yi > y  yi < y  ri > r  sektor maju dan tumbuh cepat  sektor berkembang cepat  ri < r  sektor maju tetapi tertekan  sektor relatif tertinggal    sumber: syafrizal (1997)  keterangan:  ri  adalah  laju  pertumbuhan  sektor  i,  r  adalah  laju  pertumbuhan  pdrb,  yi  adalah  kontribusi sektor i terhadap pdrb, y adalah kontribusi rata‐rata sektor terhadap pdrb  jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 34 ‐ 50 44  paten karena mempunyai pertumbuhan yang  menonjol dari sektor ekonomi yang lain.  sedangkan hanya sektor pertambangan dan  penggalian  yang  mempunyai  pertumbuhan  rendah baik di tingkat provinsi dan di tingkat  kabupaten. sektor‐sektor  lainnya seperti sek‐ tor  listrik, gas dan air bersih;  sektor bangunan;  sektor  perdagangan,  restoran  dan  hotel,  sektor  pengangkutan dan komunikasi, serta sektor keua‐ ngan, persewaan dan  jasa perusahaan, mempu‐ nyai  nilai  rpr  positif  dan  nilai  rps  negatif  berarti  sektor‐sektor  tersebut  pada  tingkat  provinsi mempunyai pertumbuhan yang me‐ nonjol  tetapi pada  tingkat kabupaten belum  menonjol.  dari  hasil  analisis  mrp  dalam  konteks  kabupaten  ogan  komering  ilir  tersebut,  menunjukkan bahwa sektor pertanian dan sek‐ tor industri pengolahan merupakan sektor yang  dominan pertumbuhannya. selain itu, sektor  tersebut  juga menunjukkan peningkatan ter‐ hadap  struktur  pertumbuhan  ekonomi.  hal  ini  mengingat  sebagian  besar  penduduk  di  wilayah  kabupaten  oki  masih  bergerak  di  bidang  agraris,  sehingga  sektor  pertanian  mempunyai  pertumbuhan  yang  menonjol  dari sektor lainnya. selain itu, sektor industri  pengolahan  juga  mempunyai  pertumbuhan  yang  menonjol  yaitu  salah  satunya  industri  pengolahan seperti industri pembuatan pem‐ pek  dan  kerupuk  kemplang  yang  berkem‐ bang pesat di provinsi sumatera selatan dan  kabupaten  oki.  sehingga  pembangunan  di  kedua  sektor  tersebut  harus  lebih  ditingkat‐ kan dan diperhatikan.  analisis shift share analisis shift share mempunyai tujuan untuk  menentukan  kinerja  atau  produktifitas  kerja  perekonomian daerah dibandingkan dengan  perekonomian nasional. analisis juga diguna‐ kan untuk menganalisis pertumbuhan ekono‐ mi  suatu  daerah  sebagai  perubahan  atau  peningkatan  suatu  indikator  pertumbuhan  perekonomian  suatu  wilayah  dalam  kurun  waktu tertentu. jika pertumbuhan di tingkat  daerah  atau  regional  menunjukkan  perbe‐ daan  dengan  pertumbuhan  nasional  yang  dapat  dilihat  dari  positif  dan  negatif  dalam  pergeseran pdrb dan secara total pergeseran  terdiri dari pergeseran struktural serta perge‐ seran terhadap pembagian proporsional.  pdrb  merupakan  salah  satu  indikator  ekonomi  yang  menunjukkan  upaya  dalam  mengamati perubahan struktur ekonomi dae‐ rah atau regional.     tabel 2. hasil perhitungan mrp kabupaten ogan komering ilir tahun 2003‐2007  rpr  rps sektor  riil  nominal  riil  nominal  1. pertanian  1,236  +  1,015  +  2. pertambangan & penggalian  0,056  _  0,225  _  3. industri pengolahan  1,091  +  1,132  +  4. listrik, gas & air bersih  1,261  +  0,615  _  5. bangunan  1,562  +  0,72  _  6. perdagangan, restoran & hotel  1,46  +  0,794  _  7. pengangkutan & komunikasi  2,253  +  0,474  _  8. keu. persewaan & jasa perusahaan  1,492  +  0,481  _  9. jasa‐jasa  1,28  +  0,825  _  sumber:bps kabupaten oki (data diolah)  penentu sektor unggulan  ... (agus tb. dan utari g.)  45           s e k to r     2 0 0 5            2 0 0 6            2 0 0 7            n ij   m ij   c ij   d ij   n ij   m ij   c ij   d ij   n ij   m ij   c ij   d ij   1   1 2 1 3 1 5 1   1 2 6 2 0 8 9   1 4 2 3 9 2 1   3 8 9 9 1 6 2   1 2 9 3 9 8 4   1 6 0 5 8 4 7   1 8 9 2 2 0 4   4 7 9 2 0 3 5   1 3 7 7 1 8 9   8 9 7 7 9 3   8 1 5 6 2 6   3 0 9 0 6 0 8   2   4 2 2 4 1 .1 7   ‐1 8 6 5 3 2   ‐2 4 4 1 0 .2   ‐1 6 8 7 0 1   4 3 9 1 5 .8   ‐2 1 2 6 7 3   ‐5 4 2 8 0 .2   ‐2 2 3 0 3 8   4 7 1 7 8 .2   ‐2 6 3 5 5 5   7 5 0 8 3 .5   ‐1 4 1 2 9 4   3   2 1 4 5 9 4 .2   ‐1 8 9 6 7 .4   8 6 2 4 5 .9   2 8 1 8 7 3   2 2 7 0 3 3   2 1 6 1 0 .8 3   ‐6 6 7 2 0 .9   1 8 1 9 2 3   2 4 1 0 0 9   ‐3 4 3 2 4   ‐1 5 0 6 0 2   5 6 0 8 3 .2   4   1 4 7 4 .1 6 5   2 6 9 2 .8 3 1   ‐1 8 6 8 .6 2   2 2 9 8 .3 8   1 5 2 7 .8   3 4 8 9 .2 1 5   ‐2 3 7 5 .5 6   2 6 4 1 .4 5   1 6 0 1 .1 6   2 5 0 9 .9 2   ‐1 6 2 4 .4   2 4 8 6 .7   5   3 3 3 7 5 9 .2   9 2 6 2 4 4   1 3 7 8 3 1   1 3 9 7 8 3 5   3 5 4 0 6 9   7 2 5 5 9 6 .6   3 1 3 1 4 5 .3   1 3 9 2 8 1 1   3 7 4 8 8 5   8 5 0 6 3 2   1 5 4 9 1 .5   1 2 4 1 0 0 9   6   4 1 6 0 2 8 .2   1 2 0 5 8 2 4   2 2 6 2 5 5   1 8 4 8 1 0 6   4 3 9 1 0 0   1 2 0 0 0 9 0   1 5 1 4 8 3 .5   1 7 9 0 6 7 3   4 6 8 9 2 3   1 5 0 2 8 9 1   4 4 7 3 7 7   2 4 1 9 1 9 1   7   3 1 2 0 5 .1 7   2 0 9 7 9 1 .2   1 7 1 9 4 .3   2 5 8 1 9 1   3 2 8 5 4 .8   1 7 6 0 8 2 .6   2 8 2 7 .1 2 5   2 1 1 7 6 5   3 5 1 8 9 .2   2 9 8 5 1 5   4 4 6 2 5 .4   3 7 8 3 3 0   8   6 3 3 0 6 .1 7   1 6 0 3 2 5 .6   ‐1 0 3 8 3 8   1 1 9 7 9 4   6 5 7 3 6 .8   2 0 0 8 9 6 .6   ‐8 9 4 7 2   1 7 7 1 6 1   6 9 4 8 0 .2   2 2 9 1 2 3   ‐9 9 3 4 .2   2 8 8 6 6 9   9   1 8 6 4 9 3 .2   3 5 1 5 7 6 .2   1 2 9 6 9 .4   5 5 1 0 3 9   1 9 5 5 5 9   5 2 8 1 2 5 .8   ‐6 6 4 0 4 .4   6 5 7 2 8 0   2 1 2 0 0 8   6 8 3 2 3 8   5 4 5 6 4 2   1 4 4 0 8 8 8   p d r b   2 5 0 2 2 5 2   3 9 1 3 0 4 3   1 7 7 4 3 0 0   8 1 8 9 5 9 5   2 6 5 3 7 7 9   4 2 4 9 0 6 5   2 0 8 0 4 0 6   8 9 8 3 2 5 1   2 8 2 7 4 6 3   4 1 6 6 8 2 4   1 7 8 1 6 8 5   8 7 7 5 9 7 2   t a b e l  3 .  p e rh it u n g a n  s h if t  s h a re  k a b u p a te n  o g a n  k o m e ri n g  i li r  t a h u n  2 0 0 3 ‐2 0 0 7  ( ju ta  r u p ia h )  s u m b er :  b ad an  p u sa t  s ta ti st ik  k ab u p at en  o k i  (d at a  d io la h )  k e te ra n g a n :  n ij   a d a la h   k o m p o n e n   p e rt u m b u h a n   n a si o n a l,   m ij   a d a la h   k o m p o n e n   b a u ra n   in d u st ri ,  c ij   a d a la h   k o m p o n e n   k e u n g g u la n   k o m p e ti ti f,    d ij  a d a la h    k o m p o n e n  p e rt u m b u h a n  d a e ra h   jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 34 ‐ 50 46  dampak  dari  perubahan  pdrb  tersebut  yang  dalam  perhitungannya  berubah  sesuai  dengan  tipe  dari  pdrb  dalam  subsektor  tertentu termasuk laju pertumbuhan nasional  yang  cepat  atau  lambat.  oleh  karena  itu,  dengan  tujuan untuk mengamati pertumbu‐ han ekonomi dan perkembangan pergeseran  perekonomian  dalam  hal  ini  perkembangan  sektor‐sektor  ekonomi  kabupaten  ogan  ko‐ mering ilir dalam kurun waktu antara tahun  2003‐2007, maka digunakan analisis shift share  ini.  tabel  3  menyajikan  hasil  perhitungan  dengan    menggunakan analisis  shift‐share  di  atas,  terlihat  bahwa  pada  tahun  2007 sektor  yang memiliki pengaruh keunggulan kompe‐ titif (cij) adalah sektor pertanian, sektor perda‐ gangan, restoran dan hotel, dan sektor jasa‐jasa.  selain  itu,  sektor  yang  juga  mengalami  peningkatan pengaruh keunggulan kompeti‐ tif adalah sektor pertambangan dan penggalian.  berdasarkan  hasil  analisis  shift‐share  pada  tahun 2007 secara keseluruhan dengan meli‐ hat  pengaruh  keunggulan  kompetitif  pada  pdrb  menunjukkan  penurunan  bila  diban‐ dingkan  tahun  2006,  tetapi  secara  keseluru‐ han semua sektor ekonomi mengalami peru‐ bahan  yang  positif  pada  pdrb  di  wilayah  kabupaten oki.    analisis location quotient (lq)  analisis  lq  digunakan  untuk  mengetahui  seberapa  besar  tingkat  spesialisasi  sektor  basis atau unggulan. metode analisis ini juga  dipakai  untuk  mengukur  konsentrasi  dari  suatu kegiatan (industri) dalam suatu daerah  itu  dengan  peranan  kegiatan  atau  industri  sejenis  dalam  perekonomian  regional  atau  nasional. perhitungan basis tersebut menggu‐ nakan  variabel  pdrb  wilayah  atas  suatu  kegiatan dalam struktur ekonomi wilayah.   apabila  sektor  yang  memiliki  nilai  lq  lebih dari satu menunjukkan bahwa peranan  sektor  ekonomi  cukup  menonjol  di  daerah  tersebut dan sektor tersebut mampu mengek‐ spor sebagian dari nilai tambah yang dihasil‐ kannya.  sebaliknya,  apabila  sektor  yang  memiliki nilai lq lebih dari satu hanya mam‐ pu memenuhi pasar dalam negeri atau lokal  daerah  dan  cenderung  mengimpor  dari  wilayah lain.  berdasarkan  tabel  4  yang  menyajikan  hasil  perhitungan  lq,  dapat  diketahui  ada  sektor yang memiliki nilai lq>1 yaitu sektor  pertanian, sektor bangunan sektor perdaga‐ ngan, hotel dan restoran, serta sektor  jasa‐ jasa. sektor‐sektor tersebut merupakan sektor  basis yang memiliki peranan penting dalam  perekonomian  kabupaten  oki  yang  ditun‐ tabel 4. koefisien locationt quoient (lq) kabupaten ogan komering ilir tahun 2003‐2007 sektor  2003  2004  2005  2006  2007  rerata lq  1. pertanian  2.4935  2.4692  2.454  2.4393  2.42174  2.4555  2. pertambangan & penggalian  0.0593  0.0610  0.0629  0.0646  0.06876  0.0633  3. industri pengolahan  0.4831  0.4807  0.4833  0.4817  0.48058  0.4819  4. listrik, gas & air bersih  0.1352  0.1315  0.1268  0.1213  0.1176  0.1265  5. bangunan  1.9739  1.9017  1.8462  1.8114  1.76233  1.8591  6. perdagangan, restoran & hotel  1.3417  1.3219  1.2835  1.245  1.21117  1.2806  7. pengangkutan & komunikasi  0.3542  0.3293  0.3088  0.2917  0.27144  0.3111  8. keu. persewaan & jasa perusahaan  0.7401  0.7078  0.6752  0.6425  0.618070  0.6767  9. jasa‐jasa  1.0743  1.0593  1.0336  0.9964  0.9839  1.0295  sumber: bps kabupaten oki (data diolah)  penentu sektor unggulan  ... (agus tb. dan utari g.)  47 jukkan  dengan  nilai  koefisien  lq  lebih  dari  satu.  hal  ini  menunjukkan  bahwa  sektor‐ sektor tersebut mampu memenuhi kebutuhan  di  wilayah  kabupaten  oki  dan  cenderung  mampu untuk mengekspor ke wilayah lain.  pada sektor pertambangan & penggalian,  sektor  industri  pengolahan,  sektor  listrik,  gas  &  air  bersih,  sektor  pengangkutan  &  komunikasi,  serta  sektor  keu.  persewaan  &  jasa  perusahaan  memiliki  nilai  koefisien  lq<1, hal ini menunjukkan bahwa sektor ter‐ sebut merupakan sektor non basis dan cende‐ rung akan mengimpor dari wilayah lain.  hasil perhitungan analisis tersebut mem‐ perlihatkan bahwa sektor yang memiliki nilai  lq  lebih  dari  satu  adalah  sektor  pertanian  (rerata  lq=2,4555),  sektor  bangunan  (rerata  lq=1,8591),  sektor  perdagangan,  hotel  dan  restoran  (rerata  lq=1,2806),  serta  sektor  jasa‐jasa  (rerata  lq=1,0295)  sebagai  sektor  unggulan dan memiliki keunggulan kompa‐ ratif.  oleh  karena  itu,  sektor  tersebut  perlu  diupayakan baik oleh pemerintah dan sektor  swasta  untuk  lebih  dikembangkan  sebagai  sektor unggulan dalam perekonomian daerah  di wilayah kabupaten oki.  analisis overlay  metode overlay dalam penelitian  ini diguna‐ kan untuk menentukan dan mengetahui sek‐ tor‐sektor unggulan di kabupaten ogan ko‐ mering  ilir  dengan  menggabungkan  hasil  dari  metode  model  rasio  pertumbuhan  (mrp)  dan  metode  analisis  lq.  metode  ini  mempunyai penilaian terhadap sektor‐sektor  ekonomi yang potensial berdasarkan kriteria  pertumbuhan dan kriteria kontribusi.  jika nilai rps>1 yaitu positif (+), artinya  menunjukkan  bahwa  pertumbuhan  sektor  pada tingkat wilayah studi lebih tinggi diban‐ dingkan  dengan  pertumbuhan  sektor  pada  wilayah referensi. jika nilai rps<1 yaitu nega‐ tif (‐), artinya pertumbuhan suatu sektor pada  tingkat  wilayah  studi  lebih  rendah  diban‐ dingkan  dengan  pertumbuhan  sektor  terse‐ but pada wilayah referensi.  sedangkan  dari  analisis  lq,  jika  nilai  lq>1  yaitu  positif  (+)  artinya  menunjukkan  sektor tersebut mempunyai kontribusi besar.  jika nilai lq<1 yaitu negatif (‐) artinya sektor  tersebut mempunyai kontribusi yang kecil.  dari  hasil  perhitungan  analisis  overlay  pada tahun 2003‐2007 (tabel 5) sektor ekono‐ mi  di  kabupaten  ogan  komering  ilir  baik  tabel 5. perhitungan overlay kabupaten ogan komering ilir tahun 2003‐2007  mrp (rps)  lq  sektor  riil  nominal  riil  nominal  1. pertanian  1,015  +  2.4555  +  2. pertambangan & penggalian  0,225  _  0.0633  _  3. industri pengolahan  1,132  +  0.4819  _  4. listrik, gas & air bersih  0,615  _  0.1265  _  5. bangunan  0,72  _  1.8591  +  6. perdagangan, restoran & hotel  0,794  _  1.2806  +  7. pengangkutan & komunikasi  0,474  _  0.3111  _  8. keu. persewaan & jasa perusahaan  0,481  _  0.6767  _  9. jasa‐jasa  0,825  _  1.0295  +  sumber: bps kabupaten oki (data diolah)  keterangan: mrp adalah model rasio pertumbuhan, rps  adalah nilai rasio pertumbuhan wilayah studi,   lq adalah nilai koefisien location quotient  jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 34 ‐ 50 48  dari  pertumbuhan  maupun  dari  kontribusi  yang diklasifikasikan sebagai berikut:  sektor pertanian merupakan sektor unggulan  atau  sangat  dominan  karena  menunjukkan  pertumbuhan  dan  kontribusi  yang  sangat  besar  terhadap  pembentukan  pdrb  dan  pembangunan di kabupaten oki.  sektor  industri  pengolahan  menunjukkan  sektor yang pertumbuhannya dominan tetapi  kontribusinya kecil. artinya, sektor ini perlu  lebih ditingkatkan dan dikembangkan untuk  menjadi sektor yang dominan.  sektor bangunan; sektor perdagangan, resto‐ ran dan hotel dan sektor  jasa‐jasa  menun‐ jukkan  sektor  yang  pertumbuhannya  kecil  tetapi  kontribusinya  besar.  hal  ini  sangat  memunginkan  sektor  tersebut  merupakan  sektor  yang  sedang  mengalami  penurunan  yang  salah satunya  disebabkan  oleh  kurang  tersedianya lapangan kerja.  sedangkan  keempat  sektor  lainnya,  antara  lain  sektor  pertambangan  dan  penggalian;  sektor  listrik,  gas  dan  air  bersih;  sektor  pengangkutan  dan  komunikasi  serta  sektor  keuangan,  persewaan  dan  jasa  perusahaan  merupakan sektor yang  tidak potensial baik  dari segi pertumbuhan maupun dari kontri‐ busi.  analisis klassen typology  analisis ini digunakan untuk melihat gamba‐ an  tentang  pola  dan  struktur  pertumbuhan  masing‐masing sektor ekonomi. dalam anali‐ is ini terdapat empat klasifikasi sektor‐sektor  ekonomi yang mempunyai karakteristik yang  berbeda  yaitu,  sektor  maju  atau  tumbuh  cepat  (rapid  growth  sector),  sektor  potensial  atau tertekan tapi maju (retarded sector), sektor  berkembang  atau  sedang  tumbuh  (growing  sector), sektor relatif tertinggal (relatively back‐ ard sector).   adanya  analisis  klassen  typology  ini  maka  sektor‐sektor  yang  termasuk  dalam  kelompok tersebut dapat dilihat dari tabel 6.  dari hasil perhitungan pada tabel 6 tam‐ pak terlihat subsektor maju adalah sektor per‐ tabel 6. klasifikasi sektor ekonomi menurut klassen tyopology kabupaten     ogan komering ilir, tahun 2003‐2007                proporsi    pertumbuhan  1 x xi   1 x xi   1   x xi   subsektor maju:  pertanian   (1,06 dan 2,45)  subsektor berkembang:  industri pengolahan  (1,04 dan 0,48)  1   x xi   subsektor potensial:  bangunan  (0,94 dan 1,85)  perdagangan, hotel dan  restoran  (0,98 dan 1,28)  jasa‐jasa   (0,9 dan 1,02 )  subsektor tertinggal:  pertambangan dan penggalian  (0,81 dan 0,06)  listrik, gas dan air bersih  (0,64 dan 0,12)  pengangkutan dan komunikasi  (0,91 dan 0,31)  keuang, persewaan dan jasa  perusahaan  (0,62 dan 0,67)    sumber: syafrizal (1997)  penentu sektor unggulan  ... (agus tb. dan utari g.)  49 tanian  (1,06 dan 2,45) yang di masa menda‐ tang  akan menjadi sektor yang terus berkem‐ bang.  subsektor  berkembang  yaitu  sektor  industri  pengolahan  (1,04  dan  0,48)  yang  menunjukkan  bahwa  sektor  ini  memiliki  potensi  pengembangan  yang  besar  tetapi  belum diolah sepenuhnya dengan baik.   subsektor  potensial  terdiri  dari  sektor  bangunan  (0,94  dan  1,85);  perdagangan,  hotel  dan restoran (0,98 dan 1,28) dan sektor jasa‐jasa  (0,9 dan 1,02). sedangkan subsektor tertinggal  adalah  sektor  pertambangan  dan  penggalian  (0,81 dan 0,06);  listrik, gas dan air bersih (0,64  dan 0,12);   pengangkutan dan komunikasi (0,91  dan 0,31); serta sektor keuangan, persewaan dan  jasa perusahaan (0,62 dan 0,67).   kesimpulan dari hasil perhitungan analisis  di atas, dapat  dilihat  sektor  ekonomi  di  kabupaten  ogan  komering  ilir dapat diklasifikasikan sebagai  berikut:   sektor  pertanian  merupakan  sektor  ung‐ gulan  atau  sangat  dominan  karena  menun‐ jukkan  pertumbuhan  dan  kontribusi  yang  sangat  besar  terhadap  pembentukan  pdrb  dan pembangunan di kabupaten oki.  sektor  industri pengolahan menunjukkan sektor yang  pertumbuhannya dominan tetapi kontribusi‐ nya kecil. artinya, sektor  ini perlu  lebih di‐ tingkatkan dan dikembangkan untuk menja‐ di  sektor  yang  dominan.  sektor  bangunan;  sektor perdagangan, restoran dan hotel dan sektor  jasa‐jasa  menunjukkan  sektor  yang  pertum‐ buhannya  kecil  tetapi  kontribusinya  besar.  hal ini sangat memungkinkan sektor tersebut  merupakan  sektor  yang  sedang  mengalami  penurunan  yang  salah  satunya  disebabkan  oleh  kurang  tersedianya  lapangan  kerja.  empat  sektor  lainnya,  antara  lain  sektor per‐ tambangan dan penggalian; sektor listrik, gas dan  air bersih;  sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi  serta sektor keuangan, persewaan dan jasa peru‐ sahaan  merupakan  sektor  yang  tidak  poten‐ sial baik dari segi pertumbuhan maupun dari  kontribusi.  saran penulis dari penelitian  ini adalah:  diharapkan  pemerintah  daerah  dapat  me‐ manfaatkan  dan  mengembangkan  sumber  daya  atau  potensi  daerah  terutama  dalam  bidang  pengembangan  ukm  untuk  lebih  meningkatkan  penciptaan  kesempatan  kerja  di  masing‐masing  sektor  ekonomi  yang  ada  untuk  menunjang  pertumbuhan  ekonomi  daerah.  penerapan kebijakan pembangunan dae‐ rah  yang  diambil  oleh  pemerintah  daerah  dan  lembaga  pemerintahan  di  lingkungan  daerah  harus  lebih  mengutamakan  kepenti‐ ngan masyarakat dalam mencapai pemerata‐ an  hasil‐hasil  pembangunan  ke  arah  yang  lebih baik di masa mendatang.  daftar pustaka  arsyad, lincolin, 1999, ekonomi pembangunan,  edisi  4,  cetakan  pertama,  yogyakarta:  stie ykpn.   arsyad, lincolin, 1999, pengantar perencanaan  pembangunan  ekonomi  daerah,  edisi  pertama, yogyakarta: bpfe.   badan  pusat  statistik,  2007, produk domestik  regional bruto menurut lapangan usaha,  kabupaten ogan komering ilir.  boediono,  1992,  teori  pertumbuhan  ekonomi,  edisi pertama, yogyakarta: bpfe.   bulletin statistik, 2008, laporan produk domes‐ tik  regional  bruto  menurut  lapangan  usaha,  kabupaten  ogan  komering  ilir:  bps.  conyers,  diana  and  peter  hills,  1994,  an  introduction  to  development  planning  in  the third world, new york: john wiley  & son.   jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 34 ‐ 50 50  emilia,  dan  imelia.,  2006,  ekonomi  regional,  modul  ilmu  ekonomi,  jambi:  sp4  fe  unj.   jhingan,  m.l.,  1996,  ekonomi  pembangunan  dan  perencanaan,  edisi  keenam,  jakarta:  raja grafindo persada.  kartasasmita, ginandjar., 1996, pembangunan  untuk rakyat,  jakarta:  pustaka  cidesin‐ do.   kuncoro, mudrajad., 2004, otonomi dan pem‐ bangunan  daerah,  jakarta:  penerbit  er‐ langga.  ma’ruf,  ahmad.,  2003,  “penentuan  sektor  unggulan di provinsi daerah istimewa  yogyakarta”,  jurnal  ekonomi  &  studi  pembangunan, volume 4, no.1.  soepono,  prasetyo,  1993,  ”analisis  shift‐ share,  perkembangan dan  penerapan”,  jurnal ekonomi dan bisnis, volume viii,  no.1.  suharsih, s., dan akhmad syarifuddin., 2003,  “analisis  dalam  perencanaan  pemba‐ ngunan  daerah  dengan  menggunakan  beberapa alat analisis alternatif: studi  kasus provinsi daerah istimewa yogya‐ karta,  pada  pelita  vi”,  jurnal  kom‐ pak, no.9, september, hal. 445‐458.  suparmoko,  1990,  keuangan  negara,  yogya‐ karta: bpfe.   suprapto,  liling  joko,  2007,  “analisis  peru‐ bahan struktur ekonomi dan basis eko‐ nomi  provinsi  di  yogyakarta  tahun  1998‐2004  (implementasi  pelaksanaan  otonomi  daerah)”,  jurnal  elektronik  uns.  suryana,  2000, ekonomi pembangunan proble‐ matika dan pendekatan,  jakarta: salemba  empat.   suwandi, i made, 2000, agenda strategis pena‐ taan otonomi daerah, jakarta.  syafrizal,  1997,  pertumbuhan  ekonomi  dan  ketimpangan  regional  wilayah  indonesia  bagian barat, jakarta: prisma.  tarigan, r., 2007, ekonomi regional teori dan  aplikasi, edisi revisi, cetakan keempat,  jakarta: bumi aksara.  www.bappenass.go.id  diakses  tanggal  10  oktober 2009.  www.bps.go.id  diakses  tanggal  12  oktober  2009  www.bps‐sumsel.go.id  diakses  tanggal  12  oktober 2009  www.kaboki.go.id  diakses  tanggal  10  okto‐ ber 2009  yusuf,  maulana.,  1999,  “model  rasio  per‐ tumbuhan  (mrp)  sebagai  salah  satu  alat analisis alternatif dalam perenca‐ naan wilayah dan kota”, jurnal ekono‐ mi  dan  keuangan  indonesia,  volume  xlvii, no.2.    convert jpg to pdf online convert-jpg-to-pdf.net convert jpg to pdf online convert-jpg-to-pdf.net jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 24 nomor 1, april 2023 article type: research paper the perceptions and satisfaction index of yogyakarta’s citizens on congestion and air pollution putri wulan ristanti1 and suryanto suryanto1,2 abstract: yogyakarta city is one of indonesia's most popular tourist destinations. the tourism sector is the highest tax revenue for local government. besides, tourism gives high revenue but also negatively impacts the citizens as hosts, such as congestion and pollution. this study was conducted to determine the importance level of each attribute on the quality of congestion and air pollution management services in yogyakarta based on the citizen's perception by utilizing the importance performance analysis (ipa) method. this study also aimed to determine the yogyakarta citizens' satisfaction level with managing congestion and air pollution using the customer satisfaction index (csi) method. this study implemented a purposive sampling technique which was then obtained from the population sample of 100 respondents with 86 saturated samples. based on the perception of the yogyakarta citizens, the results showed that a high level of attributes included wide and comfortable pavements, trees that block the sunlight and have a cooling effect, motorists who obeyed traffic signs, and drivers who drive well. the yogyakarta citizens' satisfaction index result showed 60.54%, which has the category of "very poor". keywords: tourism; congestion; air pollution; citizen's perception; service quality; community satisfaction jel classification: q53; r11; z32 introduction yogyakarta city is one of the tourist destinations in indonesia, with the number of visitors reaching 4 million people per year. the average proportion of visitors is one million foreign and 3.5 million local tourists. during the covid-19 pandemic, the number of visitors, both locals, and foreigners, decreased by 1.3 million per year ( warta jogjakota, 2022). the tourism sector's contribution (provision of accommodation, food and drink) to the city of yogyakarta reached 13.79 percent in 2019. it has made tourism a leading sector over the past three years. yogyakarta's government must continually try to improve the quality of tourism services in order to increase tourism's contribution. the challenges and demands of the market make the government strive to create a livable city for tourist destinations. affiliation: 1 department of economics, faculty of economics and business, universitas sebelas maret, central java, indonesia 2 the center for environmental research, universitas sebelas maret, central java, indonesia *correspondence: suryanto_feb@staff.uns.ac.id this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v24i1.16394 citation: ristanti, p. w., & suryanto, s. (2023). the perceptions and satisfaction index of yogyakarta’s citizens on congestion and air pollution. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 24(1), 54-68. article history received: 03 oct 2022 revised: 30 jan 2023 29 mar 2023 accepted: 17 apr 2023 https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?user=yswu0vqaaaaj&hl=en https://feb.uns.ac.id/feb/s1_ekonomi_pembangunan/ https://feb.uns.ac.id/feb/s1_ekonomi_pembangunan/ https://feb.uns.ac.id/feb/s1_ekonomi_pembangunan/ https://feb.uns.ac.id/feb/s1_ekonomi_pembangunan/ https://pplh.lppm.uns.ac.id/ https://pplh.lppm.uns.ac.id/ https://pplh.lppm.uns.ac.id/ mailto:suryanto_feb@staff.uns.ac.id http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp http://dx.doi.org/10.18196/jesp.v24i1.16394 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v24i1.16394&domain=pdf ristanti & suryanto the perceptions and satisfaction index of yogyakarta’s citizens … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 55 according to the government sector, it is necessary to develop and facilitate tourism spots so that tourism can contribute to economic development (suastika & yasa, 2015; lankford, 1994). apart from high contributions, the government recognizes that the expansion of the tourism sector is projected to boost the importance of sectors other than tourism (lankford, 1994). yogyakarta city residents engage in diverse activities that coexist with tourism, resulting in increased mobility during peak periods. according to ilham (2021), when too many people live in an area, they use up a lot of resources like water and fuel. it can harm the environment and get worse and worse. the government should control and take steps to ensure the environment gets under less pressure. wafiq and suryanto (2021) also stated that an increasing population would increase food, clothes, and transportation demand. zuhri (2014) findings, more specifically, said population density would harm pollution. in line the increasing of population, the high growth in the number of motor vehicles without adjustment to the increase in road length results in congestion at a certain point (mondschein & taylor, 2017). the existence of congestion is one of the factors causing the decline in air quality in the city of yogyakarta (murad et al., 2010, ahmad et al., 2005, and patz et al., 2014). air pollution caused by the large volume of motor vehicles on the roads will negatively impact health (dinda, 2004). chemicals that are dangerous to be inhaled continuously for a long or even short will cause various respiratory diseases that impact health (künzli et al., 2000). something often forgotten by the government is the perception of the citizens living in tourist destinations. kim and park (2013) stated that the existence of tourism causes a negative perception of the citizens on the environmental aspects, and the existence of passing tourist transportation causes air quality to decline. in line with kim and park (2013), keith and boley (2019) also prioritized tourist destinations to maintain air quality so that local citizens are not harmed by poor air quality, which can cause respiratory problems. on the other hand, the research of ahmad et al. (2019) declared that tourism does not have a negative environmental impact, especially in decreasing air quality. it is because the local government implements an environmentally friendly transportation policy in its mass transportation. beladi et al., (2009) confirmed that another alternative to maintaining environmental quality due to tourism is to include pollution costs in tourism rates. several studies have focused on how to measure the level of congestion (wang et al., 2009 and ahmad et al., 2016); to calculate the cost of congestion (zhao, 2010), and to explore the factors that cause congestion (koetse & rietveld, 2009). community activity can lead to more congestion and pollution, but if planned carefully, it can help speed up development in the area (mondschein & taylor, 2017). in contrast to earlier studies, this research focuses on the community's perspective as a host for tourism activities. the novelty of the research is the measurement of the perception of citizens. the citizen's perceptions should be government consideration in ristanti & suryanto the perceptions and satisfaction index of yogyakarta’s citizens … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 56 development planning (alemayehu & bewket, 2017). this study analyzed the level of importance and the level of service quality performance based on the perceptions of the yogyakarta citizens. the purpose of this study is to observe which ones should be improved using the importance performance analysis (ipa) method (achterkamp et al., 2011; lee, 2018). additionally, this study aims to examine the satisfaction index of yogyakarta citizens using the customer satisfaction index (csi) (husna & syukri, 2014). yogyakarta is a tourism destination based on the government's efforts to overcome congestion and air pollution. research method the research method involves using mixed methods to analyze data. these methods include using ipa and csi analysis. the first stage is to collect data, the second is to analyze the data, and the third is to find gaps and index scores. this research commenced by observing phenomena in the field, including observing the main road in yogyakarta. some of the roads in yogyakarta experienced an increase in vehicle volume during peak hours, such as malioboro road, botanical gardens road, rotowijayan road, panembahan senopati road. based on observations, problems can be formulated regarding the perception of yogyakarta citizens towards the efforts of the yogyakarta city government in overcoming congestion and air pollution. the next step was to conduct a literature study to obtain the theory or secondary data needed to support the research. then, the researchers conducted observations and interviews. observations were made to explore problems in the field and search for justification according to experts during the interview. meanwhile, interviews were conducted at the transportation department of yogyakarta as the executor of policies in related fields, such as traffic, transportation, and public transport. at this stage, the interview was performed to deepen the information related to the attributes to be used in the research based on the policy implementer's explanation in the transportation field. the next step was collecting primary data on the perception of the yogyakarta citizens regarding service quality using a questionnaire. the questionnaire in this study collected data in the form of a likert scale with five answer choices. it comprised strongly disagree, disagree, neutral, agree, and strongly agree. slamet (2006) stated that the use of the likert scale could develop various answers, but it is still within the framework of a five-score scale. each of these will obtain an assessment score based on citizens' perceptions. the citizens' perception in this study was based on how they felt about the efforts made by the yogyakarta city government to overcome congestion and air pollution. the quality of service used in this study was based on 5 (five) criteria according to tjiptono and chandra (2017). first, the tangible dimension assessed the physical condition of public transportation facilities (t1), the cleanliness of public transportation facilities (t2), the presence of a parking lot that is strategic and in good condition, the clarity of traffic ristanti & suryanto the perceptions and satisfaction index of yogyakarta’s citizens … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 57 signs, the presence of trees, and green open space (ruang terbuka hijau or rth), the condition of the bicycle path, and the location of the bicycle parking. second, the reliability dimension assessed the reliability of drivers and public transportation officers in providing services, the reliability and orderliness of motor vehicle drivers, parking officers who provide services, and police officers in performing their duties to regulate traffic order. third, responsiveness measured how well the city government responded to complaints, such as public transportation users, parking service users, and pedestrians. the next dimension was assurance, which assessed the friendliness and politeness of public transportation officers in serving public transportation users, trustworthy parking attendants, police officers in providing safe and comfortable services, and vigilance for every driver to drive well and not harm others. finally, the empathy dimension assessed the clarity of information provided by public transportation officers, the sincerity of parking attendants in providing parking services, legal certainty and justice provided by police officers, and the sense of comfort provided by the city government due to adequate rth. the experimental questionnaire was distributed via google forms on february 2021 until may 2021. the data of the questionnaire was examined for its validity and reliability. the validity test in this study used spss 16.0 software to determine the value of r statistics. if the questionnaire has been tested valid and reliable, the questionnaire will be distributed widely to the yogyakarta citizens based on the purposive sampling technique. in this study, the use of samples for an unknown population will be sufficient if the sample has reached saturation. the saturated sample in this study was 86 respondents. based on the sampling criteria, the total number of samples used in this study was 100 respondents. the methods used in this research were importance performance analysis (ipa) and customer satisfaction index (csi). the ipa method developed by john a. martilla and john c. james was used to analyze service quality performance based on the level of importance and level of performance (cole & neumayer, 2004; ha & park, 2021). in this study, service quality assessment was assessed based on the perception of yogyakarta citizens based on the level of expectation and level of reality (rulleau et al., 2014; tripathi & mishra, 2017). this study implemented quadrant analysis and gap analysis in the natural science method (immanuel & setiawan, 2020); (tjitrohartoko & saraswati, 2020). first, quadrant analysis classified the attributes according to the expectations and the reality level. the attributes in each quadrant indicated how the attribute would be treated, whether it was enhanced, retained, reviewed, or removed. quadrant i (main priority) contained attributes with a high expectation level, but performance in the field was still low. quadrant ii (maintain achievement) contained attributes with high expectations and performance in the field. quadrant iii (low priority) contained attributes with low expectations and performance levels. quadrant iv (excessive) contained attributes that have a low level of expectation but high performance. ristanti & suryanto the perceptions and satisfaction index of yogyakarta’s citizens … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 58 second, gap analysis was used to determine the difference between the actual and expected performance levels. if the gap is positive, the perception score exceeds the expected score. thus, the yogyakarta citizens are satisfied with the management and supporting facilities in overcoming congestion and air pollution in yogyakarta as a city of tourism. meanwhile, if the gap is negative, the expected score is greater than the perception score. hence, it is necessary to improve management and supporting facilities to overcome congestion and air pollution in yogyakarta as a city of tourism. husna and syukri (2014) the csi method was used to determine the satisfaction index of the yogyakarta city community towards the efforts of the yogyakarta city government in overcoming congestion and air pollution. community satisfaction was assessed based on their feelings about the yogyakarta city government's supporting facilities in overcoming congestion and excess air pollution. table 1 shows csi criteria. table 1 csi criteria index figures interpretation csi ≤64% very poor 64%<csi≤71% poor 71%<csi≤77% cause for concern 77%<csi≤80% borderline 80%<csi≤84% good 84%<csi≤87% very good 87%<csi excellent source: (husna & syukri, 2014) result and discussion descriptive statistics the division of the groups was based on the residence status of the respondents, namely the native citizens' of yogyakarta, citizens' who have lived in yogyakarta city, and citizens outside yogyakarta who frequently cross the roads of yogyakarta (at least five times a week). the characteristics of the respondents based on the age group were dominated by the age group 17-26 years, i.e., 82 people. meanwhile, the smallest age group of respondents was 47-56 years, with only one percent. the 27-36 year age group participated for six percent. the 37-46 year age group participated for four percent while the 57-64 year age group participated for seven percent. the group of respondents based on gender on the questionnaire was dominated by female respondents 69% and male respondents 31%. the characteristics of respondents based on occupation in the questionnaire were dominated by college students 64% of the total 100 respondents. private employees followed it at ten percent, state civil apparatus at ten percent, homemakers at four percent, and self-employed and civil servant retirees at two percent. meanwhile, eight percent of other jobs consisted of drafter, nurse, student, customer service, it technical consultant, security, admin, and online motorcycle taxi drivers. ristanti & suryanto the perceptions and satisfaction index of yogyakarta’s citizens … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 59 table 2 respondents characteristics no categories number of respondents percentage age (years old) 1 17-26 82 82 2 27-36 6 6 3 37-46 4 4 4 47-56 1 1 5 57-64 7 7 sex (person) 1 male 31 31 2 female 69 69 occupation 1 student 64 64 2 business 2 2 3 private worker 10 10 4 civil servant 10 10 5 civil servant retiree 2 2 6 housewife 8 8 7 others 8 8 classification of respondents (17-64 years old) 1 native citizens of yogyakarta who are recorded on the national identity card (ktp) 32 32 2 citizens who have lived in yogyakarta 25 25 3 citizens outside yogyakarta who often cross the streets of yogyakarta city (at least five times a week) 43 43 public perception of efforts to overcome congestion and air pollution the importance performance analysis (ipa) method was used to determine the level of importance and performance using the expectation level approach and the level of reality. according to respondents' assessments, ipa measured the yogyakarta city government's success in overcoming congestion and air pollution. the level of expectation was an assessment according to the perception of the yogyakarta citizens based on what they wanted. meanwhile, the reality level was evaluated based on the perceptions of the inhabitants of yogyakarta, which were derived from field observations and citizen sentiments. yogyakarta citizens' perceptions were used to assess the quality of congestion and air pollution management services by the yogyakarta city government. this study used five service quality dimensions: tangible (physical evidence), responsiveness, reliability, assurance, and empathy. quadrant analysis the step taken using the ipa method in the first quadrant analysis was to calculate the average of each attribute at the level of expectation and level of reality. after obtaining the mean level of expectation and level of reality, then it determined the mean of the mean level of expectation and level of reality to determine the point of intersection on the cartesian diagram. the following is a calculation of the mean for each level of expectation and level of reality: ristanti & suryanto the perceptions and satisfaction index of yogyakarta’s citizens … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 60 table 3 calculation results of mean expectation levels attribute expectancy level mean attribute expectancy level mean t1 457 4,57 r6 434 4,34 t2 476 4,76 rs1 440 4,4 t3 423 4,23 rs2 449 4,49 t4 451 4,51 rs3 442 4,42 t5 451 4,51 rs4 451 4,51 t6 454 4,54 rs5 445 4,45 t7 467 4,67 a1 454 4,54 t8 444 4,44 a2 456 4,56 t9 441 4,41 a3 465 4,65 r1 448 4,48 a4 460 4,6 r2 430 4,3 e1 449 4,49 r3 462 4,62 e2 440 4,4 r4 420 4,20 e3 452 4,52 r5 445 4,45 e4 456 4,56 mean 4,486 note: attributes represent the qualitative types of characteristics of each of the variables in this study. code of attributes, t=tangible; r=realibility; rs=responsibility ; a=assurance; e=empathy. (see appendix) source: primary data from processed respondents (2020) table 4 calculation results of mean level of reality attribute level of reality mean attribute level of reality mean t1 323 3,23 r6 318 3,18 t2 319 3,19 rs1 294 2,94 t3 356 3,56 rs2 314 3,14 t4 301 3,01 rs3 293 2,93 t5 301 3,01 rs4 304 3,04 t6 283 2,83 rs5 294 2,94 t7 261 2,61 a1 330 3,3 t8 273 2,73 a2 314 3,14 t9 263 2,63 a3 283 2,83 r1 275 2,75 a4 333 3,33 r2 329 3,29 e1 333 3,33 r3 270 2,7 e2 295 2,95 r4 232 2,32 e3 317 3,17 r5 279 2,79 e4 317 3,17 mean 3,00 source: primary data from processed respondents (2020) according to table 3, the mean expectation of respondents' perception is 4,486. the highest expectancy level reached 4,76, and the lowest expectancy level was 4,2. the result of the mean expectancy level informs us that citizens' expectancy is high. according to table 4, the highest level of reality reached 3,56, and the lowest reached 2,61. in general perception of yogyakarta, citizens are 3,00. it means that residents' perceptions still need improvement in the performance of congestion or air pollution. ristanti & suryanto the perceptions and satisfaction index of yogyakarta’s citizens … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 61 after calculating the mean level of expectation and reality along with the intersection of the cartesian diagram with the coordinate point (3.001; 4.486), the final step was to categorize each attribute on the cartesian diagram so that it can be grouped by quadrant. in each quadrant, it was known how these attributes would be treated, whether it was enhanced, maintained, reviewed, or removed. the following is a grouping of attributes on a cartesian diagram: information t: tangible e: empathy a: assurance r: reliability rs: responsiveness figure 1 results of natural science analysis in a cartesian diagram quadrant i the attributes contained in quadrant i are located at the coordinate point [(0.00-3.00) (4.486-4.67)], which has the highest effect on service quality. the attributes in this quadrant have characteristics that are considered important by the yogyakarta citizens, but their performance is not yet fully felt. therefore, the yogyakarta city government, through related agencies, can focus on management to reduce congestion and air pollution in yogyakarta city in this quadrant. following are the attributes contained in quadrant i; (t6) the pedestrian path is wide and comfortable, (t7) there are shady trees, (r3) the drivers obey the traffic signs, (a3) the drivers drive well. ristanti & suryanto the perceptions and satisfaction index of yogyakarta’s citizens … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 62 quadrant ii the attributes contained in quadrant ii are located at the coordinate point [(3,00-3,33) (4,76-4,486)]. the attributes have characteristics that are considered important by the yogyakarta citizens, and their performance can be felt to reduce congestion and air pollution in yogyakarta. the attributes in this quadrant are good and satisfying, so they must be maintained and improved. following are the attributes contained in quadrant ii; (t1) condition of public transportation facilities, (t2) cleanliness of public transportation facilities, (t4) strategic location of parking lots, (t5) good and proper parking space, (rs2) responsibility of police officers in regulating traffic, (rs4) responsibility of city government in serving complaints about pedestrian paths, (a1) friendliness of drivers/public transportation officers, (a2) trustworthy parking attendants, (a4) police officers serving safely and comfortably, (e1) clarity of information from drivers/public transportation officers, (e3) justice and legal certainty for police officers, (e4) the effort of city governments to build green open space. quadrant iii the attributes contained in quadrant iii are located at the coordinate point [(0.00-3.0014) (0.00-4.4864)]. the attributes have characteristics of a low level of performance and importance in overcoming congestion and low air pollution. a low level of importance means that the attributes in this quadrant have a low priority. in this study, the attributes in quadrant iii tend to approach the average borderline of the level of importance. therefore, the performance of the attributes in this quadrant should still be considered to increase community satisfaction. following are the attributes contained in quadrant iii; (t8) the visible bicycle path, (t9) availability of bicycle parking, (r1) obedience of public transportation drivers in driving, (r4) competency certificates that are owned by parking attendants (r5) bicycle users who use their lanes, (rs1) responsiveness drivers/public transportation officers, (rs3) parking attendant responsiveness, (rs5) city government responsiveness in serving bicycle lane complaints, (e2) parking attendants that are sincere in their services. quadrant iv the attributes contained in quadrant iv iii are located at the coordinate point [(3.0013.560) (0.00-4.486)]. they have characteristics of a high level of performance in overcoming congestion and air pollution. however, these attributes are not considered important for yogyakarta citizens. excessive levels of performance and low levels of importance require yogyakarta city government to reconsider the attributes in this quadrant. what can be done is to allocate resources to attributes that have high priority. following are the attributes contained in quadrant iv; (t3) clarity of traffic sign information, (r2) services provided by public transportation officers, and (rs6) police officers who can manage traffic properly. ristanti & suryanto the perceptions and satisfaction index of yogyakarta’s citizens … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 63 citizens satisfaction analysis using the csi method analysis using the csi method was used to determine how much satisfaction the yogyakarta citizens have with the efforts made by the government of yogyakarta city in overcoming congestion and pollution viewed from the level of expectation and level of reality. the first step that must be done is to determine the average of the total y values, namely the mean importance score (mis). the next step was to determine the weight factors (wf) by dividing the mis of each attribute by the number of mis multiplied by 100%. then, it was to find the average number of x values, namely the mean satisfaction score (mss). after identifying the mss, then it should search for weight score (ws) by multiplying the mss of each attribute by the mis of each attribute multiplied by 100%. then, csi can be found by dividing the ws with the highest likert scale score. these calculations can be displayed in the table 5: table 5 calculation of the customer satisfaction index (csi) no attribute expectation level (y) level of reality (x) wf ws sum of y values mis value sum of x values mss value 1 t1 457 5 323 4 0.037 0.148 2 t2 476 5 319 3 0.037 0.111 3 t3 423 4 356 4 0.030 0.119 4 t4 451 5 301 3 0.037 0.111 5 t5 451 5 301 3 0.037 0.111 6 t6 454 5 283 3 0.037 0.111 7 t7 467 5 261 3 0.037 0.111 8 t8 444 4 273 3 0.030 0.089 9 t9 441 5 263 2 0.037 0.074 10 r1 448 5 275 2 0.037 0.074 11 r2 430 4 329 3 0.030 0.089 12 r3 462 5 270 2 0.037 0.074 13 r4 420 5 232 2 0.037 0.074 14 r5 445 4 279 3 0.030 0.089 15 r6 434 5 318 3 0.037 0.111 16 rs1 440 4 294 3 0.030 0.089 17 rs2 449 5 314 4 0.037 0.148 18 rs3 442 5 293 3 0.037 0.111 19 rs4 451 5 304 3 0.037 0.111 20 rs5 445 5 294 3 0.037 0.111 21 a1 454 5 330 3 0.037 0.111 22 a2 456 5 314 3 0.037 0.111 23 a3 465 5 283 3 0.037 0.111 24 a4 460 5 333 4 0.037 0.148 25 e1 449 5 333 3 0.037 0.111 26 e2 440 5 295 3 0.037 0.111 27 e3 452 5 317 4 0.037 0.148 28 e4 456 5 317 3 0.037 0.111 total 135 85 3,0271 csi index 60,54% interpretation very poor source: primary data from processed respondents (2020) ristanti & suryanto the perceptions and satisfaction index of yogyakarta’s citizens … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 64 based on table 5 of the customer satisfaction index (csi) calculation, the csi index is 60.54%, and the category is very poor. yogyakarta citizens still expect numerous improvements to managing congestion and air pollution. the efforts made by the yogyakarta city government are still not in line with what most people expect. the results of this study indicated that a commitment to maintaining environmental quality must also accompany the government's efforts to increase the number of tourism visits. these results supported the research conducted by kim and park (2013) and keith and boley (2019). of the five attributes used in the study, it can be mapped that several attributes fall into category iii or iv. the mapping showed that the resources allocated by the city government are considered excessive, such as (t3) clarity of traffic sign information, (r2) services provided by public transportation officers, and (rs6) police officers who can manage traffic well. toward local residents decrease of quality environment i.e., congestion and air pollution, it will increase stress and dissatisfaction among people residing in crowded tourist destinations (dickinson & robbins, 2008). the effect of local residents feeling affected by the pollution will make it less likely that tourists will visit yogyakarta. reducing the congestion level as an impact of increasing the number of tourist visits can be overcome by managing transportation management. according to mondschein and taylor (2017), transportation options for tourism are also decisive. it includes good transportation options, for example, do not lead to an increase in the number of vehicles in the city. meanwhile, in the city of yogyakarta, it is frequently found that tourist buses join the traffic-congested streets to pick up and drop off passengers at inns or hotels. the conclusion of keith and boley (2019) clarified the importance of sustainable tourism initiatives (sti). with sti, all stakeholders have the same vision to develop sustainable tourism. according to tjitrohartoko and saraswati (2020), the implementation of the ipa helped reduce congestion and pollution in jakarta. the government can identify the causes of congestion and pollution using this standard, which helps make better decisions about addressing the issue. some scientists do research in iran and have found some interesting things. esmailpour et al. (2020), the ipa worked with exploratory factor analysis to identify the critical components of bus service attributes. they then proposed a method for prioritizing attributes and introduced confidence intervals around each one to help interpret the results. finally, they divided the sample using cluster analysis (ca) to account for the heterogeneity of the data. based on the result of beaudoin et al. (2015), it is essential to evaluate public transit investment, considering the effects of transit investment on traffic congestion and air quality. in thailand, the city government cooperation with toyota mobility foundation and chulalongkorn university to maintain the traffic and air pollution. they helped people use public transportation more by creating a park & ride system and providing a shuttle bus service to local schools. they also helped an information system to help people know ristanti & suryanto the perceptions and satisfaction index of yogyakarta’s citizens … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 65 the best routes to minimize commuting time. finally, they helped companies work flexible hours so that people could still get to work on time, despite the traffic. conclusion the perception of yogyakarta citizens shows attributes that have a high level of importance in quadrant i, namely wide and comfortable pedestrian paths, the availability of shady trees, drivers who obey traffic signs, and drivers who drive well. quadrant ii shows good performance, for example, the condition of public transportation facilities, the cleanliness of the city of yogyakarta, suitable parking arrangements, and pedestriancompliant services. meanwhile, from quadrant iii, attention is paid to the cyclist lines, bicycle parking, and parking attendant skills. meanwhile, from quadrant iv, it is identified that public services are adequate. still, the community does not consider them essential— for example, the clarity of information on traffic signs and services provided by public transportation officers. the level of satisfaction of the yogyakarta citizens with the efforts of the yogyakarta city government to improve congestion and air pollution was analyzed using the customer satisfaction index (csi) method. it has an index of 60.54% with the category "very poor." the success of the yogyakarta city government's efforts in dealing with congestion and air pollution is not only the government's and related agencies' responsibility. however, it is necessary to have cooperation from the citizens by fostering public understanding and awareness to take part in maintaining order and obeying driving protocols. there are at least two implications of this study. first, the government reduces traffic congestion by restriction for parking of tourist buses in high-traffic areas. the local citizens are potentially suffering cause of tourism, especially congestion and air pollution. secondly, the government offers parking areas around the city of yogyakarta. when tourists enter the city, they can use a shuttle bus to their destinations or hotel. the limitations of this study are: (1) the number of respondents is relatively limited; (2) we collected data by google form; and (3) the distribution of respondents is not equal. the following study will more precisely analyze citizens' perceptions when the researcher can increase the number of respondents, collect data by direct interview, and pay attention to the distribution of respondents' representatives. references achterkamp, i., robinson, t., & moital, m. 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parking attendant response rs4 responsiveness of the city government in handling pedestrian complaints rs5 responsiveness of the city government in handling bicycle lane complaints assurance a1 friendliness of the driver/public transport officer a2 parking attendants can be trusted a3 the rider drives well a4 police officers serve safely and comfortably empathy e1 the driver/public transport officer gives information clarity e2 parking attendants are sincere and sincere in parking e3 justice and legal certainty for police officers e4 the city government seeks to open green open parks https://doi.org/10.1016/s1570-6672(09)60058-1 https://doi.org/10.1016/s1570-6672(09)60058-1 https://jurnal.uns.ac.id/jiep/article/view/9880 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016, hlm. 114-126 doi: 10.18196/jesp.17.2.3796 dampak program plbk (penataan lingkungan berbasis komunitas) yang didukung oleh unit pengelola keuangan pnpm mandiri terhadap perilaku masyarakat dan tingkat kesejahteraannya muhammad awaluddin ardiansyah department of economics, faculty of economics andi djemma university, jl. sultan hasanuddin no.13, palopo, sulawesi selatan, indonesia email korespondensi: muh.awalardiansyah@gmail.com naskah diterima: juni 2016; disetujui: september 2016 abstract: this study aims to determine the effect of community-based neighborhood arrangement (plbk) program from pnpm mandiri to the behavior and welfare level of the community in kecamatan lalabata, soppeng regency of south sulawesi. this plbk program includes the establishment of government schools, the construction of hospitals and the provision of the financial management unit (upk). this research uses mixed methods method. quantitative methods use simple linear regression analysis while qualitative methods use indepth interviews with leiden ethnosystems. the results of this study indicate that the most influential variable in increasing the economic level of the community is the interest rate provided by the upk. while in the program of behavior change and changes in the level of community welfare, the establishment of free schools and the construction of hospitals is expected to encourage people to improve their education level and quality of health. the results of this study indicate that the function of imm (integrated microfinance management) is a solution to the problem of poverty and in rural communities. keywords: community-based neighborhood arrangement (plbk), national program for community empowerment (pnpm), integrated microfinance management jel classifications: d1, d6, e6. abstrak: penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh program penataan lingkungan berbasis komunitas (plbk) dari pnpm mandiri terhadap perilaku dan tingkat kesejahteraan masyarakat di kecamatan lalabata, kabupaten soppeng sulawesi selatan. program plbk ini meliputi pendirian sekolah pemerintah, pembangunan rumah sakit dan penyediaan unit pengelola keuangan (upk). penelitian ini menggunakan metode mixed methods. metode kuantitatif menggunakan analisis regresi linier sederhana sedangkan metode kualitatif menggunakan wawancara mendalam dengan leiden ethnosystems. hasil dari penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa variabel yang paling berpengaruh dalam peningkatan tingkat perekonomian masyarakat adalah tingkat suku bunga yang diberikan oleh upk. sedangkan di dalam program perubahan perilaku dan perubahan tingkat kesejahteraan masyarakat, pendirian sekolah gratis dan pembangunan rumah sakit diharapkan mampu mendorong masyarakat untuk memperbaiki tingkat pendidikan dan kualitas kesehatan mereka. hasil dari penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa fungsi imm (integrated microfinance management) merupakan solusi untuk permasalahan kemiskinandan di dalam masyarakat pedesaan. kata kunci: penataan lingkungan berbasis komunitas (plbk), program nasional pemberdayaan masyarakat (pnpm), manajemen keuangan mikro terpadu kasifikasi jel: d1, d6, e6 mailto:muh.awalardiansyah@gmail.com dampak program plbk (penataan lingkungan … (muhammad awaluddin ardiansyah) 115 pendahuluan pembangunan bidang pendidikan dan kesehatan merupakan dua pilar untuk membentuk modal manusia (human capital) dalam pembangunan ekonomi yang tidak lain merupakan investasi dalam jangka panjang. tercapainya tujuan pembangunan bidang pendidikan dan kesehatan, pada gilirannya dapat meningkatkan kualitas dan produktivitas penduduk, dimana pertumbuhan produktivitas penduduk tersebut merupakan motor penggerak (engine of growth) pertumbuhan ekonomi dan kesejahteraan penduduk itu sendiri. melalui investasi pendidikan akan mampu meningkatkan kualitas sumberdaya manusia yang diperlihatkan oleh meningkatnya pengetahuan dan keterampilan sehingga mendorong peningkatan produktivitas kerja penduduk. pada akhirnya penduduk akan memiliki produktivitas yang tinggi sehingga memperoleh kesejahteraan yang lebih baik dan terhindar dari kemiskinan. perbaikan tingkat kesehatan pada dasarnya merupakan suatu investasi sumber daya manusia untuk mencapai masyarakat yang sejahtera (welfare society). tingkat kesehatan masyarakat yang ditunjukkan oleh angka harapan hidup (ahh) sebagai indikatornya akan sangat berpengaruh terhadap tingkat kesejahteraan masyarakat dan memiliki keterkaitan yang erat dengan kemiskinan. sementara itu, tingkat kemiskinan akan terkait dengan tingkat kesejahteraan. oleh karena kesehatan merupakan faktor utama dalam upaya peningkatan kesejahteraan masyarakat, maka kesehatan selalu menjadi perhatian utama pemerintah sebagai penyelenggara pelayanan publik. pemerintah harus dapat menjamin hak masyarakat untuk sehat (right for health) dengan memberikan pelayanan kesehatan secara adil, merata, memadai, terjangkau, dan berkualitas. sama halnya dengan kesehatan, pendidikan merupakan suatu bentuk investasi sumber daya manusia. tingkat pendidikan juga berpengaruh terhadap tingkat kemiskinan karena pendidikan merupakan salah satu komponen yang tekankan dalam penyebab lingkaran kemiskinan. salah satu cara untuk mengatasinya adalah melalui pendidikan dasar wajib, yang oleh pemerintah diterjemahkan dalam program wajib belajar sembilan tahun. rendahnya tingkat kesehatan dan pendidikan pada rumah tangga miskin merupakan tantangan utama yang harus dihadapi indonesia dalam rangka penanggulangan kemiskinan. masih tingginya angka mortalitas balita serta rendahnya tingkat penyelesaian pendidikan dasar dan menengah pertama anak-anak dalam rumah tangga miskin, merupakan isu-isu strategis yang sangat berpotensi menghambat upaya penanggulangan kemiskinan di indonesia. sebagai ilustrasi awal dari angka kematian anak pada tahun 2000 menurut who masih mencapai 10,6 juta anak per tahun, dan dari jumlah itu indonesia “menyumbang” 280.000 nyawa anak, serta bersama 41 negara lain memberi kontribusi sebesar 5 juta jiwa. selain itu, berdasarkan data badan standar nasional pendidikan (bsnp) kemdiknas (2012), tingkat kelulusan siswa smp di sulawesi selatan pada 2012 mencapai 99,42% (rangking 21 nasional) dan mts 99,27% (rangking 26). kelulusan siswa tingkat sma jurusan ipa 99,75% (rangking 23) dan sma jurusan ips 98,81% (rangking 25 nasional). tingkat kelulusan siswa ma (madrasah) jurusan ipa 99,78% (rangking 17), ma jurusan ips 98,21% (rangking 18). tingkat kelulusan pada jenjang smk 98,59% (rangking 26) dari 33 provinsi di indonesia. tanpa disertai upaya peningkatan kesehatan dan pendidikan, terutama kepada anak-anak generasi mendatang yang hidup dalam setiap rumahtangga miskin, upaya untuk mengurangi angka kemiskinan di indonesia akan sulit dilakukan. satu ciri menonjol masyarakat miskin adalah tidak adanya akses kepada sarana dan prasarana dasar lingkungan yang ditandai dengan kualitas perumahan dan permukiman yang jauh di bawah standar kelayakan, seperti buruknya sanitasi dan akses kesehatan. kondisi 116 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016: 114-126 ini selain merupakan implikasi dari ketidakpastian pendapatan dari mata pencaharian mereka, juga diakibatkan oleh minimnya lapangan kerja dan rendahnya tingkat pendidikan (azhari, 1997). melihat permasalahan kemiskinan tidak cukup pada gejala-gejala fisik yang tampak dari luar dan satu sektor saja. persoalan kemiskinan harus ditinjau secara utuh dan multidimensi baik dimensi politik, sosial dan ekonomi. berpijak dari kondisi tersebut pemerintah melakukan terobosan kebijakan dalam mengurangi kemiskinan dengan berbagai alternatif solusi pemecahan masalah melalui program nasional pemberdayaan masyarakat (pnpm) mandiri. pnpm mandiri pedesaan sebagai satu motor penggeraknya dan merupakan program payung (umbrella policy) untuk menjalankan berbagai program pemberdayaan masyarakat (sujana, 2007). tahun ini merupakan tahun ke-8 pelaksanaan pnpm mandiri sejak dicanangkan pada 2007. selama delapan tahun tersebut, pnpm mandiri khususnya pnpm mandiri perdesaan di soppeng telah menunjukkan peran yang signifikan dalam mengasah dan mengasuh masyarakat untuk menjadi berdaya, mandiri dan selanjutnya diharapkan menjadi madani yang ditandai dengan kemampuannya bermitra secara sejajar dengan lembaga lainnya dalam melaksanakan fungsi pemberdayaan masyarakat dalam aspek ekonomi, sosial dan kultural. (www.pnpm-mandiri.org, 2010). pnpm mandiri pedesaan dilaksanakan dengan tujuan mencapai keberlanjutan perbaikan kesejahteraan masyarakat miskin melalui proses pemberdayaan masyarakat yang dilaksanakan dengan menerapkan pendekatan pengokohan kelembagaan masyarakat di tingkat basis yakni badan keswadayaan masyarakat (bkm) yang diharapkan mampu menjadi wadah perjuangan kaum miskin dalam menyuarakan aspirasi dan kebutuhan mereka, sekaligus menjadi lokomotif upaya penanggulangan kemiskinan yang dijalankan oleh masyarakat secara mandiri dan berkelanjutan. (www.pnpm-mandiri.org , 2005). pelaksanaan pnpm mandiri pedesaan sejak 2007 di soppeng telah mendorong terjadinya tranformasi sosial dari masyarakat tidak berdaya menjadi masyarakat berdaya, mandiri dan akhirnya madani. intervensi yang dilakukan dalam mendorong transformasi tersebut selain program regular seperti program penanggulangan kemiskinan juga dilakukan melalui program tambahan di antaranya peningkatan penghidupan masyarakat berbasis komunitas (ppmk) dan program penataan lingkungan berbasis komunitas (plbk). kedua program tersebut merupakan komponen pnpm mandiri pedesaan, yang difokuskan pada peningkatan mata pencaharian bagi warga miskin yang terhimpun dalam ksm (kelompok swadaya masyarakat) dan terfokus pada penataan lingkungan permukiman yang sehat. program ini merupakan kelanjutan intervensi pnpm mandiri pedesaan dari tahap berdaya ke tahap mandiri (halim, 2011). program plbk bertujuan meningkatkan pendapatan masyarakat miskin secara berkesinambungan yang bertumpu pada pengembangan mata pencahariannya melalui: pertama, peningkatan kapasitas keluarga miskin dalam kegiatan ekonomi produktif; kedua, peningkatan kapasitas kelembagaan ksm, dan ketiga, peningkatan pelayanan keuangan mikro untuk masyarakat miskin. program nasional pemberdayaan masyarakat mandiri (pnpm mandiri) merupakan salah satu program pemberdayaan masyarakat yang mendukung plbk yang wilayah kerja dan target sasarannya adalah masyarakat perdesaan (www.pnpm-mandiri.org, 2010). program pemberdayaan masyarakat di kabupaten soppeng ini dapat dikatakan sebagai program pemberdayaan masyarakat terbesar di sulawesi selatan, bahkan terbesar di indonesia. dalam pelaksanaannya, program ini memprioritaskan kegiatan bidang infrastruktur desa, pengelolaan dana bergulir bagi kelompok, kegiatan pendidikan dan kesehatan bagi http://www.pnpm-mandiri.org/ http://www.pnpm-mandiri.org/ http://www.pnpm-mandiri.org/ dampak program plbk (penataan lingkungan … (muhammad awaluddin ardiansyah) 117 masyarakat di wilayah perdesaan dan salah satu komponen utamanya adalah plbk. program plbk (penataan lingkungan berbasis komunitas) ini adalah lanjutan program pnpm mandiri ini. sasaran yang ingin dicapai kegiatan pnpm tersebut adalah diharapkan dapat meringankan beban masyarakat miskin serta memberikan bekal pengetahuan dan keterampilan masyarakat agar dapat menghidupi dirinya dan keluarganya. di samping itu, program pnpm merupakan salah satu wadah yang berfungsi untuk mendidik dan mengembangkan potensi yang dimiliki masyarakat, agar mereka mampu tumbuh dan berkembang sesuai dengan potensi yang dimiliki. salah satu cara mengurangi angka kemiskinan di indonesia, seperti yang dilakukan program-program sebelumnya, adalah dengan memberdayakan masyarakat miskin dengan memberikan bantuan permodalannya. hal ini memungkinkan masyarakat miskin untuk dapat memulai usaha produktif (usaha mikro) untuk memperoleh dan meningkatkan pendapatan mereka. jumlah usaha mikro kecil dan menengah di kabupaten soppeng sebanyak 11.522-unit usaha dengan rincian usaha mikro menempati urutan terbesar yaitu sebanyak 8.783-unit usaha. disamping itu kegiatan di sektor perdagangan memiliki urutan terbesar juga yaitu sebanyak 7.413 dan sisanya adalah di sektor perkebunan baik bekerja sebagai petani, mengelola hasil kebun dan sawah. pada umumnya para pedagang dan petani yang diteliti berada di kecamatan lalabata. menurut survey awal yang dilakukan oleh dinas pendapatan daerah kabupaten soppeng pada tahun 2005 ditemukan fakta bahwa para pedagang mikro merupakan bagian dari masyarakat golongan ekonomi lemah sehingga perlu mendapatkan bantuan terutama dalam hal tersedianya modal yang cukup untuk menjalankan usahanya. dengan ini pnpm mandiri melalui unit pengelola keuangannya (upk) menjalankan program simpan pinjam untuk para pedagang mikro dan petani di daerah setempat. selain itu, rendahnya tingkat pendidikan dan kesehatan di kabupaten soppeng ini juga mengakibatkan rendahnya sumber daya manusia di kabupaten soppeng ini sangat mempengaruhi tingkat kesejahteraan sebuah keluarga (burhan zain, 1997). mengacu pada identifikasi masalah, dirumuskan masalah penelitian yaitu bagaimana dampak program plbk (penataan lingkungan berbasis komunitas) program nasional pemberdayaan masyarakat (pnpm) melalui unit pengelola keuangannya terhadap tingkat kesehatan dan pendidikan di kecamatan lalabata kabupaten soppeng sulawesi selatan. dari hasil penelitian diharapkan dapat mengetahui perkembangan taraf hidup masyarakat miskin yang ada di kecamatan lalabata dari program plbk. kemajuan perkembangan taraf hidup ini diukur dengan seberapa banyak masyarakat yang berpendapatan lebih dari $1 perharinya. selain itu dapat diketahui juga dampak program pnpm ini terhadap kondisi masyarakat kabupaten soppeng khususnya di kecamatan lalabata dilihat dari berapa besar berkurangnya jumlah orang miskin di kabupaten soppeng dan seberapa banyak masyarakat yang mampu menyelesaikan pendidikannya sampai tingkat sma. dengan demikian dapat diketahui juga sejauh mana keberhasilan program pemerintah tersebut guna mengentaskan kemiskinan di indonesia khususnya di kabupaten soppeng sulawesi selatan. metode penelitian sesuai dengan sifat masalah, penelitian ini menggunakan metode penelitian gabungan (mixed methods) antara metode penelitian kuantitatif dan kualitatif yang dilakukan secara bersamaan, walaupun proporsi dari masingmasing tipe logika tersebut bervariasi. pendekatan ini dipilih karena ingin mendalami secara detail, intensif dan komprehensif atas 118 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016: 114-126 dampak yang ditimbulkan oleh program plbk melalui pembangunan infrastruktur, pembangunan sekolah gratis dan pembangunan rumah sakit bagi masyarakat di kabupaten soppeng khususnya di kecamatan lalabata. pendekatan kualitatif disebut juga sebagai interpretive approach, yaitu pendekatan yang berupaya menganalisis secara sistematis mengenai gejala sosial yang muncul dari penelitian yang dilakukan secara langsung dengan latar belakang lingkungan yang alami. sedangkn metode kuantitatif akan menguji program simpan pinjam dari unit pengelola keuangan pnpm mandiri terhadap peningkatan pendapatan masyarakat khususnya pedagang mikro dan petani di kecamatan lalabata soppeng. oleh karena itu digunakan analisis regresi sederhana. secara sistematis rumus dari regresi linier sederhana dapat dituliskan dengan model persamaan sebagai berikut: yi = b0 +b1x1+ b2x2 + b3x3 + ei dengan, yi adalah besarnya pinjaman yang masyarakat ambil kepada upk pnpm x1 adalah tingkat suku bunga yang diberikan upk x2 adalah tingkat suku bunga pesaing dalam hal ini rentenir yang menjadi saingan upk x3 adalah lama waktu yang diberikan upk untuk repayment 0 b (intersept) dan 1 b (slope) adalah parameterparameter yang tidak diketahui ie adalah disturbance error yang berdistribusi normal (0, s 2) teknik pengumpulan data menggunakan kuisioner, observasi dan wawancara kepada responden dan data yang diperoleh merupakan data kuantitatif dan kualitatif. wawancara dilakukan dengan pihak-pihak yang memahami masalah yang diteliti. rancangan penelitian kualitatif–pendekatan leiden ethnosystems pendekatan dengan metode kualitatif dalam penelitian ini menggunakan leiden ethnosystem approach. dalam pendekatan ethnosistems dijelaskan bahwa konsep ini membuka perspektif baru pada pembangunan sosial-ekonomi di dunia ketiga, dan konsep ini berangkat dari metodologi yang umumnya digunakan dalam ethnoscience yang berusaha untuk mempelajari sistem lokal, pengetahuan regional, dan praktek dalam konteks yang lebih dinamis pada perkembangan dan perubahan. pendekatan kualitatif akan membahas tentang bagaimana perubahan taraf hidup masyarakat kecamatan lalabata kabupaten soppeng setelah program plbk ini dijalankan, mulai dari pembangunan rumah sakit, sekolah dan biaya pendidikan gratis. penggunaan pendekatan ethnosystems dalam penelitian ini adalah sebagai berikut: (1) participant’s view, yaitu melakukan wawancara dengan masyarakat yang telah merasakan dampak program plbk ini, sejak belum adanya program pemerintah ini sampai dijalankannya selama beberapa tahun. (2) historical dimension, yaitu sejarah bagaimana sampai program pemerintah ini diluncurkan, bagaimana agar masyarakat dapat meningkatkan taraf hidup mereka baik dari segi pendidikan, kesehatan maupun ekonomi, hal ini didapat dari hasil wawancara (pv) dan pengkajian dari penelitianpenelitian terkait. (3) field of ethnological study (fes), fes adalah konsep dasar ketiga dalam pendekatan ethnosystems. dalam penelitian ini kajian melalui fes sangat relevan untuk dikaji karena masyarakat di kabupaten soppeng adalah masyarakat yang dalam konteks perilaku dan kebiasaan mereka masih menggunakan nilai-nilai kehidupan bugis-makassar. dalam hal ini tokoh masyarakat yang menjadi kepala desa sebagai informannya. rancangan penelitian kuantitatif pusat pada penelitian kuantitatif adalah proses pengukuran karena memberikan link yang mendasar antara pengamatan empiris dan hubungan kuantitatif dari penjabaran matematis. aplikasi yang dilakukan secara dampak program plbk (penataan lingkungan … (muhammad awaluddin ardiansyah) 119 bersamaan antara metodologi kuantitatif dan kualitatif adalah metode penelitian campuran atau metode penelitian kombinasi (ambaretnani, 2012). uji f (regresi) pengujian ini bertujuan untuk menguji signifikasi pengaruh variabel bebas yaitu dampak program plbk melalui unit pengelola keuangan pnpm mandiri (x) terhadap variabel terikat, yakni peningkatan perekonomian dan kesejahteraan (y). langkah-langkah yang dilakukan untuk pengujian hipotesis yaitu: perumusan hipotesis statistik 1. h0: β1 = β2 = β3 = β4 = 0, artinya dampak program plbk melalui unit pengelola keuangannya tidak berpengaruh secara terhadap peningkatan perekonomian dan kesejahteraan masyarakat di kecamatan lalabata kabupaten soppeng. hi: minimal salah satu βi ≠ 0, artinya dampak program plbk melalui unit pengelola keuangannya berpengaruh terhadap peningkatan perekonomian dan kesejahteraan masyarakat di kecamatan lalabata kabupaten soppeng 2. penentuan taraf nyata dan daerah kritis taraf nyata yang digunakan sebesar 5% (α = 5%). derajat bebas pembilang adalah v1 = k1, dan derajat bebas penyebut adalah v 2 = (n-k), dimana n = jumlah pengamatan dan k = jumlah variabel, untuk menentukan nilai f-tabel. 3. menentukan nilai f-hitung besarnya nilai f-hitung diperoleh dari hasil regresi dengan program spss 4. kriteria pengujian nilai f¬hitung dibandingkan dengan ftabel, dengan kriteria sebagai berikut: h0 diterima jika f-hitung ≤ f-tabel, artinya dampak program plbk melalui unit pengelola keuangannya tidak berpengaruh terhadap peningkatan perekonomian dan kesejahteraan masyarakat di kecamatan lalabata kabupaten soppeng. h0 ditolak jika f-hitung > f-tabel, artinya dampak program plbk melalui unit pengelola keuangannya berpengaruh terhadap peningkatan perekonomian dan kesejahteraan masyarakat di kecamatan lalabata kabupaten soppeng. variabel penelitian penelitian tentang dampak program plbk pada pnpm di kecamatan lalabata kabupaten soppeng menggunakan beberapa variabel penelitian, yaitu variabel dependen dan independen. variabel dependen yaitu besarnya dana yang diberikan unit pengelola keuangan plbk pnpm kepada masyarakat (y1), sedangkan variabel independennya tingkat suku bunga yang diberikan unit pengelola keuangan pnpm mandiri (x1) tingkat suku bunga pesaing upk pnpm mandiri, dalam hal ini rentenir menjadi pesaing (x2) dan lama waktu repayment yang diberikan upk (x3). pelaksanaan evaluasi pada pnpm yang dimaksudkan dalam penelitian ini adalah serangkaian aktivitas untuk menentukan kualitas pelaksanaan pengelolaan program dalam suatu organisasi, dengan cara membandingkan hasil-hasil yang dikehendaki serta merumuskan hasil kerja (performance) organisasi dalam mencapai tujuan. tahapan pelaksanaan evaluasi tersebut meliputi (a) perencanaan program yaitu suatu aktivitas pengambilan keputusan yang dilakukan secara sadar, terorganisasi, dan terus menerus dilakukan untuk memilih alternatif yang terbaik dari sejumlah alternatif tindakan guna mencapai tujuan atau sasaran (b) pelaksanaan program adalah proses kegiatan yang melibatkan semua sumber daya manusia, dana dan sarana sesuai dengan pedoman dan petunjuk, waktu dan tempat yang telah ditetapkan (c) tindak lanjut adalah proses pengembangan yang dilakukan terhadap hasil masing–masing komponen atau hubungan timbal balik antara komponen yang satu dengan yang lain, sehingga dapat ditemukan 120 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016: 114-126 pemikiran atau gagasan untuk mengembangkan program selanjutnya. populasi dan sampel populasi dalam penelitian ini adalah kepala keluarga di kecamatan lalabata kabupaten soppeng yang berjumlah 256 kepala keluarga yang mendapatkan plbk. kecamatan lalabata dipilih sebagai lokasi penelitian, karena kecamatan ini memiliki tingkat repayment upk terbaik yang sudah cukup baik dan kecamatan lalabata merupakan kecamatan percontohan penerima plbk, sedangkan sampel yang menjadi objek dari penelitian ini ditetapkan dengan menggunakan teknik random sampling. untuk menentukan ukuran sampel (sample size) minimal digunakan rumus nazir (1998) sebagai berikut: dimana: n = jumlah sampel n = jumlah populasi d = presisi (bound of error) yang diinginkan berpedoman pada penelitian di bidang ilmu sosial, maka presisi (bound of error) yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini ditetapkan sebesar 10% atau 0,10 sehingga ukuran sampel dapat dihitung sebagai berikut: ( ) dengan demikian ukuran sampel minimal dalam penelitian ini adalah sebanyak 98.46 anggota sampel (dibulatkan menjadi 100 anggota sampel). hasil dan pembahasan karakteristik responden masyarakat yang mengikuti program plbk dalam penelitian ini karakteristik responden terbagi atas pendidikan, jenis pekerjaan, dan besarnya pinjaman di unit pengelola keuangan (upk) pnpm mandiri. pendidikan terakhir masyarakat yang mengikuti program plbk tabel 1. data tingkat pendidikan peserta plbk no pendidikan jumlah persentase 1 tidak tamat sd 22 22% 2 sd 51 51% 3 smp 18 18% 4 sma/smk 9 9% jumlah 100 100% sumber: data diolah dapat dilihat pada tabel 1 bahwa sebagian besar masyarakat yang mengikuti program plbk memiliki tingkat pendidikan sd yaitu sebanyak 51 persen selebihnya pada tingkat pendidikan smp (18 %), slta (9 %), dan tidak tamat sd (22 %). masyarakat yang hanya lulus dari sekolah dasar banyak mengikuti program plbk ini karena mereka merupakan target utama dari program plbk. lebih dari setengah dari masyarakat yang mengikuti program plbk ini hanya mampu menyelesaikan pendidikan sampai sekolah dasar saja karena terbentur biaya untuk melanjutkan ke jenjang yang lebih tinggi. sedangkan masyarakat yang tidak tamat sd sekalipun karena memang tidak ada biaya untuk sekolah ataupun tidak ingin bersekolah, mereka juga menjadi target plbk agar kelak anak-anak mereka dapat merasakan pendidikan wajib 12 tahun seperti visi dan misi dari pnpm mandiri. di samping itu, minoritas masyarakat yang mengikuti program plbk baik yang lulusan sekolah menengah pertama maupun yang mampu menyelesaikan sampai tingkat sekolah menengah atas ataupun kejuruan, mereka mengikuti program pemerintah ini dengan harapan mampu memperbaiki taraf hidup mereka melalui program-program yang dilaksanakan oleh pnpm mandiri ini. dampak program plbk (penataan lingkungan … (muhammad awaluddin ardiansyah) 121 tabel 2. data jenis pekerjaan responden yang mengikuti plbk no jenis pekerjaan jumlah persentase 1 petani 56 56% 2 pedagang kelontong 14 14% 3 buruh harian 6 6% 4 berkebun 24 24% jumlah 100 100% sumber: data diolah dapat dilihat dari tabel 2 bahwa sebagian besar masyarakat yang mengikuti program plbk bekerja sebagai petani, yaitu sebanyak 56 persen bekerja dengan berkebun (24%) menjadi pedagang kelontongan (14%) dan bekerja sebagai buruh harian (6%). mayoritas masyarakat yang mengikuti program plbk berprofesi sebagai petani. besarnya pinjaman masyarakat di upk dapat dilihat dari tabel 3 bahwa sebagian besar masyarakat mengambil pinjaman bantuan modal usaha di unit pengelola keuangan (upk) sebesar 5-10 juta sebanyak 70%, selebihnya 17% mengambil pinjaman sebanyak 2-5 juta, 10% masyarakat mengambil pinjaman dibawah 2 juta dan hanya 3% yang mengambil diatas 10 juta rupiah. sebagian besar masyarakat yang mengikuti program plbk ini mengambil pinjaman modal usaha sebanyak 5-10 juta rupiah, kebanyakan dari mereka adalah para petani yang ingin meminjam modal usaha untuk membeli pupuk sebelum musim tanam yag baru, biasanya setiap 4 bulan sekali mereka pergi ke unit pengelola keuangan (upk) pnpm mandiri untuk mengajukan kredit mikro tersebut. sedangkan masyarakat lain yang meminjam modal usaha antara 2-5 juta rupiah adalah mereka yang sehari-harinya berjualan ataupun berdagang barang-barang kebutuhan sehari-hari. tabel 3. besarnya pinjaman masyarakat kepada upk no besarnya pinjaman (rp) jumlah persentase 1 < 2 juta 10 10% 2 2-5 juta 17 17% 3 5 -10 juta 70 70% 4 10 juta keatas 3 3% jumlah 100 100% sumber: data diolah analisis kualitatif dampak program plbk terhadap perilaku dan kesejahteraan masyarakat di kabupaten soppeng. pandangan masyarakat terhadap program plbk saat pertama kali pemerintah ingin menjadikan kabupaten soppeng sebagai daerah sasaran pengentasan kemiskinan melalui program plbk, masyarakat sangat antusias dan menerima dengan baik bantuan dari pemerintah itu tersebut. penduduk setempat juga menunjukkan itikad baik mereka dengan rela melepas tanah mereka dengan harga murah guna dibangun sekolah maupun rumah sakit oleh pemerintah, di samping itu pelaksanaan semua pembangunan infrastruktur melibatkan seluruh lapisan masyarakat menjadikan program plbk dari pemerintah melalui pnpm mandiri ini terkesan dari rakyat dan untuk rakyat pula, sehingga program ini sukses berjalan selama 7 tahun sejak pertama kali digulirkan sampai sekarang ini. selain itu pemerintah daerah juga berperan penting dalam peluncuran program ini. kapasitas pemda dan masyarakat yang mampu menjalin kemitraan sinergis dalam penataan lingkungan permukiman itulah yang diharapkan benar122 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016: 114-126 benar mampu mewujudkan visi dan misi program ini, yaitu mampu mengentaskan kemiskinan di kabupaten soppeng, khususnya di kecamatan lalabata. masalah kemiskinan di indonesia mendorong pemerintah untuk merombak dan menyesuaikan kembali kebijakan ekonomi dan sistem pemerintahan ke otonomi daerah. dengan ini tanggung jawab pengentasan kemiskinan berada di tangan pemerintah sulawesi selatan dan pemerintah kabupaten soppeng. hal pertama yang dilakukan pemerintah kepada masyarakatnya yaitu melakukan berbagai upaya dan terobosan untuk mengimplementasikan berbagai program pengentasan kemiskinan berbasiskan komunitas masyarakat yang mampu meningkatkan kesejahteraan dan memperluas kesempatan kerja sehingga angka penduduk miskin di kecamatan lalabata berkurang secara simultan. di satu sisi masyarakat telah merasakan dampak dari program pemerintah ini yang telah meningkatkan kondisi ekonomi mereka, namun di satu sisi program ini juga menciptakan ketergantungan bagi masyarakat. padahal menurut salah satu pelaksana plbk yang ditemui di di lokasi penelitian, pada hakikatnya program ini dirancang untuk memandirikan masyarakat. upaya pemerintah soppeng untuk menekan angka kemiskinan telah menampakkan hasil hingga angka kemiskinan di tahun 2011 menurun hingga 21,28% sejak program ini pertama dilaksanakan pada tahun 2007. penurunan angka kemiskinan di kecamatan lalabata diasumsikan sebagai pengaruh dari program plbk yang dilaksanakan selama ini yang dititikberatkan pada program pemberdayaan masyarakat. pendekatan ekonomi diarahkan untuk meningkatkan pendapatan keluarga, sehingga diharapkan masyarakat miskin mampu memenuhi kebutuhan primer dan sekunder sekaligus meningkatkan kesejahteraannya. sedangkan pendekatan melalui pendidikan dan kesehatan juga sangat penting untuk masyarakat karena untuk pengukuran tingkat perubahan kesejahteraan masyarakat tidak hanya dilihat dari berapa besar kenaikan pendapatan keluarga mereka tapi harus juga dilihat berapa besar perubahan tingkat pendidikan dan tingkat kesehatan di tiap keluarga di kecamatan lalabata tersebut. sejak krisis ekonomi melanda indonesia di tahun 1998 baru kali ini para masyarakat miskin merasakan perhatian yang serius dari pemerintah, sebelumnya hanya penyuluhan-penyuluhan dan pelatihan saja tanpa adanya tindakan nyata atau tindakan fisik yang dilakukan oleh pemerintah. oleh karena itu melalui program plbk dari program nasional pemberdayaan masyarakat mandiri ini masyarakat menaruh harapan yang besar untuk meningkatkan tingkat kesejahteraan mereka baik dari segi ekonomi, pendidikan maupun kesehatan mereka. pola pikir masyarakat tentang peminjaman modal usaha sejak dulu masyarakat pedesaan hanya mengandalkan pinjaman dari rentenir ataupun modal mereka sendiri yang sangat terbatas, pinjaman dari rentenir atau masyarakat setempat menyebutnya dengan nama painreng. rentenir mengharuskan mereka membayar bunga yang cukup tinggi. tetapi karena prosesnya lebih mudah, mereka lebih disukai masyarakat setempat. alasannya hanya satu, yaitu mudah. alasan lainnya kalaupun ada yang biasa meminjam di bank setempat, mereka harus membayar tepat waktu, jika tidak mereka akan terkena denda yang semakin lama dendanya juga semakin besar. oleh sebab itu masyarakat setempat jera jika berurusan mengenai pinjaman uang. selain itu peranan bank setempat kurang maksimal guna menyalurkan kredit ke masyarakat karena prosesnya yang terbilang cukup rumit seperti yang tertera pada prosedur pengajuan kredit di salah satu bank setempat, yaitu: (a) ktp (kartu tanda penduduk), terkadang dapat juga menggunakan sim (surat dampak program plbk (penataan lingkungan … (muhammad awaluddin ardiansyah) 123 izin mengemudi) dan paspor, juga ktp suami/ isteri. (b) slip gaji terakhir bagi yang bekerja sebagai karyawan/pegawai. (c) rekening tabungan 3 bulan terakhir, dengan memperlihatkan sisa uang yang ada di rekening tabungan cukup untuk membayar angsuran bulanan. yang paling penting adalah rekening transfer gaji dan tunjangan. (d) kartu keluarga. (e) surat nikah bagi yang telah berkeluarga. (f) pas foto terakhir asli 3 bulan terakhir. (g) surat keterangan penghasilan dari tempat bekerja. sebagian besar masyarakat tidak mampu memenuhi persyaratan untuk peminjaman di bank, dengan latar belakang pendidikan yang rendah, masyarakat kurang mengetahui konsekuensi dari peminjaman di bank. seperti yang dialami oleh beberapa masyarakat yang terlambat membayar cicilan di bank, keterlambatan 1 hari sudah dikenakan denda, sedangkan penghasilan mereka tergantung dari mata pencarian mereka yang tidak setiap bulan mendapatkan uang. oleh karena itu sebelum unit pengelola keuangan dari program plbk pnpm ini ada, sebelumnya mereka meminjam modal kepada para painreng. sistem peminjaman modal di painreng ini cukup mudah, mereka cukup datang beserta penjamin dan langsung tanda tangan saja di atas materai dengan jumlah total pengembalian sejumlah uang yang painreng inginkan. uang pinjaman pun langsung cair saat itu juga, tetapi bunga yang diberikan painreng ini sangat tinggi. mereka yang meminjam 5 juta rupiah harus mengembalikan 2 kali lipat bahkan 3 kali lipat sesuai dengan hasil panen mereka. hal di atas membuat upk hadir untuk memberikan solusi yang terbaik bagi masyarakat dengan lebih mempermudah proses administrasi dan birokrasi peminjaman modal usaha mikro serta memberikan jangka waktu kepada masyarakat yang meminjam sesuai kesanggupan mereka, seperti contohnya para petani yang mampu membayar cicilan setelah mereka panen, jadi di bulan pertama sampai ketiga mereka tidak membayar dulu, tapi setelah mereka panen dan mendapatkan uang dari hasil panen padi mereka baru bisa membayar cicilan pinjaman mereka sebelumnya. tabel 4. perbandingan sistem peminjaman modal usaha pada 3 institusi di masyarakat lalabata painreng (rentenir) unit pengelola keuangan (upk) pnpm mandiri bank konvensional setempat cara peminjaman cukup mudah dan tidak berbelit-belit. cukup membawa diri dan penjamin (keluarga yang dipercaya) cara untuk mengajukan kredit cukup mudah, cukup fotocopy ktp dan kartu keluarga. harus memiliki berkas-berkas seperti, ktp, kartu keluarga, laporan keuangan usaha ataupun surat keterangan penghasilan dan masih banyak lagi berkas-berkas administratif yang harus diisi melalui form bank yang tersedia. uang yang akan dipinjamkan lansung cair saat itu juga modal usaha yang masyarakat ajukan akan disetujui hari itu juga dan pendanaan lansung dimulai 1-2 hari setelah pengajuan. apabila berkas sudah lengkap maka petugas bank akan mensurvei sang peminjam lamanya pengembalian sesuai dengan kesepakatan peminjam dan painreng. masyarakat bisa membayar cicilan atau mengembalikan modal usaha yang dipinjamkan oleh upk sesuai kesanggupan (waktu yang diberikan bervariasi sesuai mata pencarian sang peminjam) masyarakat yang telah diberikan kredit harus membayar cicilan tiap bulan dan harus tepat waktu, apabila terlambat akan dikenakan denda besarnya bunga diberikan tidak menggunakan persentase tapi sudah disepakati berapa pengembalian dari modal yang dipinjam. misalnya orang tersebut meminjam modal 10 juta suku bunga yang diberikan upk pnpm mandiri sesuai dengan ketentuan pemerintah dalam memberikan suku bunga kredit mikro 2,4 % perbulan suku bunga efektif maksimal 26% pertahun 124 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016: 114-126 painreng (rentenir) unit pengelola keuangan (upk) pnpm mandiri bank konvensional setempat rupiah dan tahun depan harus mengembalikan sebesar 20 juta rupiah painreng sudah seperti saudara saat masyarakat ingin mengajukan pinjaman modal pelayanan petugas upk lebih kekeluargan (memakai bahasa daerah setempat) petugas bank terlalu formal terhadap para masyarakat yang mengajukan pinjaman analisis kuantitatif dampak program plbk melalui unit pengelola keuangan pnpm mandiri terhadap peningkatan tingkat perekonomian dan kesejahteraan masyarakat di kecamatan lalabata kabupaten soppeng. hasil uji regresi untuk menguji hipotesis yang diajukan, dilakukan pengujian secara kuantitatif guna menghitung apakah terdapat pengaruh program program plbk melalui unit pengelola keuangan (upk) terhadap peningkatan tingkat perekonomian dan kesejahteraan masyarakat di kecamatan lalabata, kabupaten soppeng. alat analisis yang dilakukan adalah regresi linier berganda. tabel 5. hasil persamaan regresi variabel unstandardized coefficient standardized coefficient t sig b std error beta constant 21,776 5,054 2,146 .000 tingkat suku bunga upk -0,427 0,155 -0,208 -1,377 0.005 tingkat suku bunga pesaing 0,124 0,121 0,77 1,012 0.156 kemudahan repayment -0,278 0,120 -0,173 -.152 0.014 dependent variabel: besarnya pinjaman modal usaha di upk pnpm mandiri berdasarkan hasil analisis di atas, maka dapat disimpulkan bahwa model regresi penelitian ini adalah: y: peningkatan besarnya jumlah pinjaman modal usaha di upk pnpm mandiri x1: tingkat suku bunga yang diberikan upk x2: tingkat suku bunga pesaing (bpr setempat dan rentenir) x3: kemudahan dalam repayment yang diberikan uji siginifikansi simultan (uji f) uji f digunakan untuk mengetahui apakah variabel-variabel independen secara simultan berpengaruh signifikan terhadap variabel dependen. tabel 7. tabel uji f anovaa model sum of squares df mean squares f sig. regression residual total 313,896 630,919 946,223 4 30 34 78,603 20,891 3,713 .014b a. dependent variable: besarnya pinjaman modal usaha di upk pnpm mandiri b. predictors: (constant), tingkat suku bunga yang diberikan upk, tingkat suku bunga pesaing (bank dan painreng), jangka waktu repayment dan kemudahan repayment c. d. derajat kepercayaan yang digunakan (α) adalah 0,05. berdasarkan hasil perhitungan dengan menggunakan spss diperoleh nilai alpha 0,014<0,05, berarti ho ditolak. dapat disimpulkan bahwa program plbk melalui unit pengelola keuangan pnpm mandiri mempunyai pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap 𝑌=𝑎+𝑏1 x1+ 𝑏2 x2+ 𝑏3 x3 +e y= 21,776– 0,427 x1+ 0,124 x3 – 0,278 x3 +e dampak program plbk (penataan lingkungan … (muhammad awaluddin ardiansyah) 125 peningkatan tingkat perekonomian dan kesejahteraan masyarakat di kecamatan lalabata, kabupaten soppeng. pengaruh program plbk melalui unit pengelola keuangan pnpm mandiri terhadap peningkatan tingkat perekonomian dan kesejahteraan berdasarkan hasil analisis kuantitatif diatas dapat disimpulkan bahwa tingkat suku bunga yang diberikan oleh upk dan jangka waktu serta kemudahan untuk membayar cicilan (repayment) adalah dua hal yang berpengaruh dalam usaha peningkatan tingkat perekonomian dan kesejahteraan masyarakat di kecamatan lalabata. tingkat suku bunga yang diberikan upk pnpm mandiri sebagai variabel yang sangat berpengaruh di dalam peningkatan perekonomian dan kesejahteraan karena selama ini masyarakat di kecamatan lalabata yang sebagian besar berprofesi sebagai petani memiliki kendala modal dan biasanya selain mendapatkan modal usaha dari painreng dengan bunga yang sangat tinggi, mereka hanya mengandalkan modal mereka sendiri yang sangat kecil dan terbatas. dapat dilihat di tabel 7 setelah adanya unit pengelola keuangan pnpm mandiri untuk menopang keuangan masyarakat guna meningkatkan penghasilan mereka, masyarakat sebanyak 70% mengajukan pinjaman modal usaha sebesar 5-10 juta dengan bunga 2,4% perbulan. faktor kedua yang juga sangat berpengaruh adalah jangka waktu dan kemudahan masyarakat untuk membayar cicilan (repayment) yang diberikan oleh unit pengelola keuangan pnpm mandiri. hal ini dikarenakan sistem pengembalian yang diterapkan oleh upk sangat membantu masyarakat dan berbeda dengan institusi lainnya dimana masyarakat biasa mendapatkan pinjaman modal usaha seperti di bank setempat dan di painreng. dalam upaya untuk meningkatkan perekonomian dan kesejahteraan rakyat, upk pnpm mandiri tidak terlepas dari pengaruh bunga bank konvensional dan besarnya tingkat pengembalian yang diberikan oleh painreng yang selama ini menjadi tempat masyarakat untuk mendapatkan modal usaha. simpulan berdasarkan hasil data yang telah diolah melalui metode kuantitatif dan kualitatif, maka dapat disimpulkan bahwa peningkatan taraf hidup kesejahteraan masyarakat melalui program plbk dari pnpm mandiri ini sangat berhasil. pengentasan kemiskinan di kecamatan lalabata kabupaten soppeng dilakukan dengan beberapa program yaitu: pertama, melalui jalur pendidikan. salah satu program dari plbk ini adalah mendirikan sekolah pemerintah dari sd, smp dan sma maupun smk sehingga masyarakat dapat menyekolahkan anak mereka tanpa dipungut biaya sedikitpun dan mampu meningkatkan tingkat pendidikan masyarakat di kabupaten soppeng, khususnya di kecamatan lalabata. sebelumnya sebagian besar masyarakat hanya lulusan sd tetapi setelah adanya program plbk ini sudah banyak yang mampu menyelesaikan pendidikan sampai sma maupun smk. yang kedua adalah peningkatan kesehatan masyarakat dengan membangun rumah sakit bagi rakyat miskin. walaupun masyarakat setempat masih sering menggunakan pengobatan tradisional, namun dengan dibangunnya rumah sakit gratis bagi rakyat miskin di kecamatan lalabata membuat penduduk setempat beramai-ramai memeriksakan kesehatanya ke rumah sakit tersebut. mereka mulai mempercayai pengobatan medis dan tidak ragu lagi untuk menggunakan obat dokter. yang ketiga adalah mendirikan unit pengelola keuangan (upk) guna membantu masyarakat dalam bidang keuangan khususnya peminjaman kredit usaha mikro dan pemodalan usaha. dengan adanya upk ini masyarakat sangat terbantu dengan kemudahan-kemudahan yang diberikan oleh upk pnpm mandiri seperti bunga yang rendah dan cara repayment sesuai kemampuan si 126 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016: 114-126 peminjam sehingga mampu meningkatkan tingkat perekonomian mereka. daftar pustaka ambaretnani, p. 2012. integrated medicine for advanced partnerships among traditional birth attendants and community midwives in the sunda region of west java, indonesia. disertation, leiden university, the netherlands. amin w.t. 1995. dasar-dasar analisis laporan keuangan. cetakan pertama, jakarta: pt. rineka cipta. azhari. 1997. masyarakat miskindan cara penanggulangannya; jakarta universitas indonesia. depdagri. 2007. www.depdagri.go.id. halim, yusuf. 2011. realisasi pnpm perkotaan dan pedesaan . jakarta. nazir. 1998. metodologi penelitian pembangunan desa. penerbit bina aksara, jakarta. sujana. 2007. pnpm mandiri. jakarta. world bank. 2011. world bank’s poverty estimates revised. global issue: http://www.globalissues.org/article/4/povert y-around-the-world. diunduh tanggal 17 april 2013. zain, burhan. 1997. pnpm mandiri dan pelaksanaannya di sulawesi selatan. makassar. http://www.depdagri.go.id/ http://www.globalissues.org/article/4/poverty-around-the-world http://www.globalissues.org/article/4/poverty-around-the-world jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 23 no 2, october 2022 article type: research paper does monetary policy respond to macroeconomic shocks? evidence from indonesia arintoko and nunik kadarwati abstract: the activist policy is believed by policymakers and economists that monetary policy can respond to macroeconomic shocks to stabilize the economy. this study aims to find evidence and discuss the response of monetary policy to macroeconomic shocks. for this reason, the effects of gdp shocks, inflation shocks, and exchange rate shocks on policy interest rates in the implementation of monetary policy are discussed through vector error correction model (vecm) analysis along with policy interest rate responses involving the long-run relationships. the study period 2001q1 – 2020q1 is used as the policy implementation period using the policy interest rate. the results of the analysis show that based on the magnitude of the impact and its contribution, inflation shock and exchange rate shock are the most important macroeconomic variable shocks in influencing the monetary policy stance in indonesia. inflation shocks and exchange rate shocks need to be a priority focus for monetary policymakers in an economic environment where uncertainty is increasing and rapidly changing. in addition to the interests of the domestic economy, monetary policy also needs to remain focused on considering and adapting to increasingly dynamic global economic and financial developments. keywords: monetary policy; macroeconomic shocks; vector error correction model; policy interest rates; monetary policy stance jel classification: e30; e40; e52 introduction monetary policy for a country is vital to be implemented if stabilizations of output and prices are the final goal. in implementing monetary policy, the central bank is given a mandate with both single and multiple objectives. in conducting monetary policy, the central bank can implement it by responding to shocks (baeriswyl & cornand, 2010). macroeconomic shocks are shocks that are generally encountered in a dynamic macroeconomic environment. macroeconomic shocks faced by policymakers include shocks to inflation, output, and exchange rates. the implementation of monetary policy can be carried out with expansionary or contractionary policies in response to shocks. active monetary policy is believed to be able to respond to shocks for economic stabilization (mankiw, 2016). various structural shocks that drive high inflation such as inflation shocks, output shocks, and exchange rate shocks are of greater concern to the central bank affiliation: department of economics and development studies, faculty of economics and business, universitas jenderal soedirman, central java, indonesia *correspondence: arintoko@unsoed.ac.id this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v23i2.14881 citation: arintoko, a., & kadarwati, n. (2022). does monetary policy respond to macroeconomic shocks? evidence from indonesia. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 23(2), 171-188. article history received: 05 jun 2022 revised: 09 sep 2022 10 oct 2022 accepted: 11 oct 2022 https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?user=mxrpsngaaaaj&hl=en https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?hl=en&user=bfq1lyiaaaaj http://iesp.feb.unsoed.ac.id/ http://iesp.feb.unsoed.ac.id/ http://iesp.feb.unsoed.ac.id/ http://iesp.feb.unsoed.ac.id/ http://iesp.feb.unsoed.ac.id/ mailto:arintoko@unsoed.ac.id http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/14881 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v23i2.14881&domain=pdf arintoko & kadarwati does monetary policy respond to macroeconomic shocks? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 172 in implementing inflation targeting. inflation control as a monetary policy target makes monetary policy more focused on how to respond to various shocks that affect inflation. in inflation-targeting countries, the monetary authority also considers output stabilization in the long run. stabilization of both is possible when there is no trade-off between inflation and output. lothian (2014) states that based on experience in the united states, the united kingdom, and the euro there is no trade-off between inflation and output volatility. they both move together when there is a rise and fall in economic trends. however, in countries that adopt inflation targeting, inflation stabilization needs to be the main focus in implementing monetary policy. according to smets (2014), when implementing a new macroprudential policy framework, countries should aim for financial stability with a primary focus on price stability. in many studies, monetary policy has an impact that includes the impact on output, inflation, and exchange rates. this empirical evidence is provided in studies conducted by, among others, nyumuah (2018), abbasinejad et al. (2018), sethi et al. (2019), mandel et al. (2019), and tai nguyen et al. (2022). the results of a study by arintoko (2021) imply the important role of monetary policy in stabilizing output and inflation in the short run and stabilizing inflation in the long run. the interest rate channel is a key channel in stabilizing output and inflation. monetary policy is generally carried out in response to changes in macroeconomic variables. as long as macroeconomic changes can be predicted according to expectations, monetary policy can be carried out with more certainty based on rules. forward-looking monetary policy in stable macroeconomic conditions can adopt a monetary policy based on the rules for setting interest rates. mayandy (2019) found evidence that macroeconomic stability supports the ability of monetary policy to enforce rules-based policies. the minimum macroeconomic shocks were able to condition a relatively stable macroeconomic policy and environment. however, unexpected macroeconomic changes will pose a challenge for the central bank in implementing monetary policy effectively. on the other hand, in the realm of academics and research, the issue of monetary policy is still dominated by discussions and studies on how monetary policy shocks affect the macroeconomy. this research has been carried out with various models. blank and dovern (2010) prove the impact of monetary policy shock on the banking sector. meanwhile, coibion (2012) discusses the small effect of monetary policy shocks from the standard var model and the large effect of monetary policy shocks with romer and romer (2004). another study is by abeygunawardana et al. (2017) who studies the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy shocks on the money market, government securities market, real sector, and prices. furthermore, studies conducted by kim and lim (2018) and kim et al. (2020) prove the impact of monetary policy shock on the exchange rate in a small open economy. recent research by salisu and gupta (2020) estimates the dynamic effects of monetary policy shocks on macroeconomic volatility. likewise, zhang (2021) with the concept of the new shock also analyzed the impact of monetary policy shocks on output and total factor productivity. on the other hand, monetary policy shock arintoko & kadarwati does monetary policy respond to macroeconomic shocks? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 173 increases when the inflation trend is increasing, as the results of research conducted by le and finch (2021). however, in the current implementation of monetary policy, the debate for decisionmakers that arises is how monetary policy responds to shocks. supply shocks are one of the issues that have been widely discussed at the empirical level about how these shocks affect inflation and economic growth. regarding monetary policy, supply shocks are also a factor that monetary policy will respond to. in measuring output shocks, supply shocks and demand shocks will determine the output shocks. setting an inflation target within a predetermined range provides flexibility in responding to supply and demand shocks that occur for the central bank (mishkin & serletis, 2011). the advantage of implementing inflation targeting is its ability to reduce the effects of inflationary shocks. the central bank not only responds to rising inflation but also to negative shocks on aggregate demand. so, in implementing monetary policy to reduce inflation, the central bank responds to supply shocks and demand shocks, especially negative shocks from both. experience from the crisis has shown that the shocks that occur affect the ability of monetary policy to control inflation and stimulate economic activities (jannsen et al., 2019). unexpected changes in exchange rates and inflation can cause demand and supply shocks, while output shocks can affect inflation because they can be caused by demand shocks or supply shocks. the unexpected decline in the rupiah exchange rate and an unexpected increase in inflation can cause negative demand shocks. meanwhile, negative supply shocks and positive demand shocks can trigger inflationary shocks. therefore, the inflation-targeting monetary policy aimed at stabilizing inflation will always pay attention to macroeconomic shocks that occur. in this study, inflation shocks, output shocks, and exchange rate shocks are expected to have impacts on monetary policy responses. output is measured by gross domestic product (gdp) as usual. the response to shocks is the stance of monetary policy between expansionary and contractionary monetary policies. inflationary shocks caused by unexpected changes in inflation, output, and exchange rates will be responded to by contractionary monetary policy, and vice versa. through changes in policy interest rates, the central bank is able to respond to significant changes in inflation and output (li et al., 2021). therefore, monetary policy through changes in policy interest rates has flexibility in responding to macroeconomic shocks. regarding inflation, filis and chatziantoniou (2013) state that the inflation rate in both oil-importing and oil-exporting countries is influenced by oil price shocks. therefore, changes in domestic inflation can be affected by shocks in world oil prices. oil price shocks will affect inflation through cost pushes. in this view, unexpected domestic inflation can be affected by shocks in world oil prices. in the transmission of monetary policy, changes in policy interest rates will affect macroeconomic variables, namely exchange rates, inflation, and output. in addition, in the transmission of monetary policy, how the policy responds to changes in macroeconomic variables, namely exchange rates, inflation, and output, will provide feedback on the target variables for changes in monetary policy. onder and villamizar-villegas (2018) in their study examine how monetary policy arintoko & kadarwati does monetary policy respond to macroeconomic shocks? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 174 responds to dynamically changing macroeconomic variables. monetary policy consistently responds to inflation and exchange rate behavior. the effectiveness of monetary policy in practice can be seen in how policy responds to shocks. unexpected changes in exchange rates, inflation, and output become consequences of the monetary policy response. therefore, exchange rate shocks, inflation shocks, and output shocks will be responded to by monetary policy. in the monetary policy stance, feedback from shocks will determine the monetary policy response. the central bank in indonesia is mandated to implement monetary policy to stabilize the value of the rupiah as reflected in inflation and exchange rates, in addition to having the ultimate goal of real output. so far, many kinds of research on monetary policy have been carried out related to how the shock of monetary policy affects macroeconomic variables. these studies focus more on the impact of monetary policy shocks. in the increasingly dynamic and uncertain global macroeconomic environment, the effects of macroeconomic shocks are no less important in influencing the monetary policy stance for the benefit of the domestic economy. therefore, how policy responds to these shocks becomes more important to study. the implementation of monetary policy through the determination of interest rates cannot avoid the effects of economic shocks. implementation of the determination of policy interest rates by decision-makers will certainly respond to shocks. economic shocks are unpredicted and unexpected changes in the macroeconomy that also affect the implementation of monetary policy. unexpected changes in foreign interest rates, world oil and food prices, climate change, and non-economic factors can cause macroeconomic shocks. moreover, the study of how the monetary policy response is generally associated with a supply shock or a demand shock separately. research conducted by al hajj et al. (2015) distinguishes between supply shock, demand shock, and fiscal shock in analyzing the three shocks to monetary policy. research conducted by natal (2012) relates the response of monetary policy to oil price shocks. since supply shocks and demand shocks can occur together which determines the output shocks, this study is motivated to analyze how the monetary policy response responds to the output shock. in targeting inflation, monetary policy in indonesia is primarily important in responding to inflation shocks and exchange rate shocks. unexpected changes in prices and exchange rates are important parts of how the monetary policy stance is affected. the exchange rate in the study of how monetary policy responds is an important issue. research conducted by syarifuddin et al. (2014) analyzed the response of monetary policy to the volatility of the exchange rate. meanwhile, yagmur (2016) conducted a study to analyze the role of the exchange rate in the implementation of monetary policy. the level and variability of the exchange rate significantly affect the implementation of monetary policy. the existing research gap is related to how monetary policy responds to macroeconomic shocks, which has not been considered in previous studies. this research gap will be filled with this research in the context of the monetary policy stance within the inflationtargeting framework. this study aims to analyze how monetary policy responds to output (gdp) shocks, inflation shocks, and exchange rate shocks in the application of inflation targeting in which inflation and exchange rate stability are the focus to achieve output arintoko & kadarwati does monetary policy respond to macroeconomic shocks? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 175 stabilization. through inflation targeting, it is expected that monetary policy will be effective through changes in policy interest rates. to capture information on how monetary policy responds to gdp shock, inflation shock, and exchange rate shock, this study applies a vector error correction model with policy interest rates as the response variable in a long-run relationship. this study is suitable to be implemented in indonesia. indonesia is one of the emerging countries that has adopted an inflation targeting framework (itf) in implementing monetary policy as a mandate given to bank indonesia to maintain rupiah stability. the mandate was given by the central bank in indonesia according to the law of the republic of indonesia number 23 of 1999 that efforts to achieve price stabilization have two objectives, namely stabilizing inflation and stabilizing the exchange rate. the stability of the rupiah has two meanings, namely the stability of the prices of goods and services as reflected in inflation, and the stability of the rupiah currency exchange rate against foreign currencies. exchange rate stability is an important condition needed for price stability and the financial system in the free-floating exchange rate regime implemented in indonesia. in inflation stabilization, the exchange rate channel has an important role in monetary transmission in indonesia as studied by kusuma and kassim (2013). in monetary transmission, apart from the exchange rate, interest rates also have a key role in influencing inflation as studied by lelo et al. (2018). furthermore, studies related to monetary transmission have expanded and enriched empirical findings with the development of studies in the context of monetary transmission by the behavior of nonconventional banks through the behavior of islamic banks, one of which is a recent study conducted by johari et al. (2022). the implementation of the itf involves replacing the monetary base with the interest rate as a target in the implementation of monetary policy to achieve inflation and exchange rate stability. the increasingly flexible application of the itf seeks to deal with an increasingly dynamic macroeconomic environment (agung et al., 2011). this policy was adapted to deal with macroeconomic shocks that could weaken the stability of the financial sector. therefore, active monetary policy is more trusted as an effective monetary policy when the economy is always faced with macroeconomic shocks that can affect domestic inflation. in implementing the itf, bank indonesia needs to respond to macroeconomic shocks as a monetary policy stance to achieve its target. this study contributes to the enrichment of empirical evidence on how the active policy model applied in the flexible itf responds to macroeconomic shocks. in a period of flexible exchange rates, exchange rate dynamics and other macroeconomic indicators such as gdp and inflation allow their shocks to be responded to by the monetary policy stance. the results of this study will also contribute to the policy of how each type of shock is relatively responded to by monetary policy. arintoko & kadarwati does monetary policy respond to macroeconomic shocks? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 176 research method the variables involved in the model used in this study are macroeconomic variables whose changes are usually responded to by policy interest rates. the selected variables are limited to the core variables because including many other variables in the model will obscure the main purpose of the analysis. meanwhile, the data analyzed according to the selected variables are quarterly data and cover the period 2001q1 2020q1. the time period under study considers that the use of the policy interest rate variable as a reference begins in this period. while the limitation of the end of the period is to isolate the influence of the covid-19 era which is not included in this part of the study to avoid biased results. the explanations of the individual variables can be seen in table 1. table 1 definition of variables variable term indicator source policy interest rate pir bi rate/bi seven days repo rate (bi7drr) in percent per annum. bank indonesia gdp lngdp real gross domestic product (2010 = 100) in billion rupiahs expressed in natural logarithms bps-statistics indonesia inflation inf percentage change in consumer price index (cpi), year on year (yoy) bank indonesia exchange rate lner us dollar per rupiah and expressed in natural logarithms. bank indonesia the policy interest rate is used as a proxy for monetary instruments in the implementation of monetary policy by bank indonesia. the policy interest rate becomes a more likely instrument to influence market interest rates which in turn can affect consumption and investment so that it will determine aggregate demand. in addition, policy interest rates are more flexible in responding to changes in the dynamic macroeconomic environment in the implementation of monetary policy with inflation targeting. indications in monetary policy response are more reflected in policy interest rate decisions than other instruments. the use of policy interest rates is also in line with the inflation targeting period which began in 2001. the research model in this study is a vector autoregression (var) model. with the selected variables, this model is applied for multivariate time series as in equations (1) to (4). from many time series, linear interdependence can be identified through the stochastic process in the var model. 𝑃𝐼𝑅𝑡 = ∑ 𝛼1𝑖𝑃𝐼𝑅𝑡−𝑖 + ∑ 𝛽1𝑖𝐿𝑁𝐺𝐷𝑃𝑡−𝑖 + ∑ 𝛾1𝑖𝐼𝑁𝐹𝑡−𝑖 + ∑ 𝜆1𝑖𝐿𝑁𝐸𝑅𝑡−𝑖 + 𝑘 𝑖=1 𝑘 𝑖=1 𝑘 𝑖=1 𝑘 𝑖=1 𝑢𝑡 𝑃𝐼𝑅 .................................................................................................................................. (1) 𝐿𝑁𝐺𝐷𝑃𝑡 = ∑ 𝛼2𝑖𝑃𝐼𝑅𝑡−𝑖 + ∑ 𝛽2𝑖𝐿𝑁𝐺𝐷𝑃𝑡−𝑖 + ∑ 𝛾2𝑖𝐼𝑁𝐹𝑡−𝑖 + ∑ 𝜆2𝑖𝐿𝑁𝐸𝑅𝑡−𝑖 + 𝑘 𝑖=1 𝑘 𝑖=1 𝑘 𝑖=1 𝑘 𝑖=1 𝑢𝑡 𝐿𝑁𝑂𝑈𝑇𝑃𝑈𝑇 ........................................................................................................................ (2) 𝐼𝑁𝐹𝑡 = ∑ 𝛼3𝑖𝑃𝐼𝑅𝑡−𝑖 + ∑ 𝛽3𝑖𝐿𝑁𝐺𝐷𝑃𝑡−𝑖 + ∑ 𝛾3𝑖𝐼𝑁𝐹𝑡−𝑖 + ∑ 𝜆3𝑖𝐿𝑁𝐸𝑅𝑡−𝑖 + 𝑘 𝑖=1 𝑘 𝑖=1 𝑘 𝑖=1 𝑘 𝑖=1 𝑢𝑡 𝐼𝑁𝐹 ................................................................................................................................. (3) 𝐿𝑁𝐸𝑅𝑡 = ∑ 𝛼4𝑖𝑃𝐼𝑅𝑡−𝑖 + ∑ 𝛽4𝑖𝐿𝑁𝐺𝐷𝑃𝑡−𝑖 + ∑ 𝛾4𝑖𝐼𝑁𝐹𝑡−𝑖 + ∑ 𝜆4𝑖𝐿𝑁𝐸𝑅𝑡−𝑖 + 𝑘 𝑖=1 𝑘 𝑖=1 𝑘 𝑖=1 𝑘 𝑖=1 𝑢𝑡 𝐿𝑁𝐸𝑅 ............................................................................................................................... (4) arintoko & kadarwati does monetary policy respond to macroeconomic shocks? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 177 the var model is a model that can be used for forecasting and can be a robust forecasting tool, including in the study conducted by khamis et al. (2018). the use of the var model can lead to the vector error correction (vecm) model if there is cointegration in the var model (zou, 2018). similarly, in a study conducted by usman et al. (2017), the application of vecm as a var model is due to the non-stationary data and cointegration between variables. before estimating the var model, unit root tests are performed to determine whether the data series are stationary at the level, i(0), or at the first difference, i(1). the var model requires data stationarity of the same order. if all variables in the model are i(1) and are co-integrated, then the application model is a vector error correction model. detection of the existence of a cointegration relationship between variables is carried out through the cointegration test with the johansen test. in the analysis of the var model as well as vecm so that the analysis of impulse response and variance decomposition are effective, the var or ecm model must be stable (lu, 2018). the stability test required in this study is the detection of the inverse roots of ar characteristic polynomials. the var model is stable or stationary if all roots have a modulus of less than one, and located inside the unit circle (dan et al., 2014). if the estimated model is vecm then the roots must be equal to unity. based on the model that has passed the diagnostic check including model stability, the vec model performs impulse response analysis and variance decomposition. impulse response analysis was conducted to analyze the response of one variable to the shock of another variable. meanwhile, the variance decomposition shows the contribution of each shock that affects the forecast error variance. result and discussion the results of the unit root test are carried out on variables in the level and variables in the first difference. as reported in table 2, the variables in the level based on both the augmented dickey-fuller (adf) and dickey-fuller generalized least squares (df-gls) tests conclude that all variables are not i(0). furthermore, the test results on the variables in the first difference resulted in the second test statistic which concluded that the data series of the variables studied was i(1). table 2 unit root test of variables variables unit root test adf df-gls pir -2.0826 0.0155 lngdp -0.6449 2.2125 inf -2.4073 -1.8670* lner -0.2132 -0.2913 pir -4.4492*** -2.9970*** lngdp -10.4927*** -10.4686*** inf -8.1015*** -6.7741*** lner -8.7220*** -4.6572*** *** p-value < 0.01, * p-value < 0.10 arintoko & kadarwati does monetary policy respond to macroeconomic shocks? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 178 after conducting a unit root test to identify the cointegration relationship between variables in the model studied, a cointegration test was carried out with the results reported in table 3. the cointegration test results by applying the johansen test showed that there were two cointegration relationships. the trace statistic concludes that there are cointegration relationships with a p-value of 0.05. table 3 the result of cointegration test h0 h1 trace statistic 0.05 critical value prob. max-eigen statistic 0.05 critical value prob. r = 0 r = 1 57.5151* 47.8561 0.0048 23.6509 27.5843 0.1474 r < 1 r = 2 33.8641* 29.7971 0.0161 19.8423 21.1316 0.0749 r < 2 r = 3 14.0219 15.4947 0.0823 9.7375 14.2646 0.2297 r < 3 r = 4 4.2843* 3.8415 0.0385 4.2843* 3.8415 0.0385 *significant at the critical value of 0.05, indicating 2 cointegrating equations the existence of two cointegration relationships indicates that the application of the var model as in equations (1) – (4) will result in the vecm model in this study. the results of the diagnostic checks against the estimation results of the vecm model are presented in table 4. overall, the results of the diagnostic checks show that the vecm model is the best model with passes for non-normality, serial correlation, and heteroscedasticity. the test results reject each null hypothesis with a p-value greater than 0.05 for the statistical values presented at the bottom of the table. table 4 vecm model diagnostic checks diagnostic elements equation pir lngdp inf lner r2 0.6304 0.9413 0.5312 0.3650 adjusted r2 0.5049 0.9213 0.3720 0.1494 f-stat 5.0228 47.203 3.3370 1.6927 aic 1.7738 -6.9841 3.9119 -3.1032 sic 2.3746 -6.3833 4.5127 -2.5025 jb stat 15.2200 sc lm test 9.2197 chi-sq het test 330.7979 the results of detecting the stability of the model as shown in figure 1 show that all the roots lie inside and on the unit circle. in the stability test of the var model, the model is stable if all the roots are less than one or the dots are inside the circle. however, because the model being tested is the vecm model which has cointegration relations, then some roots are equal to one (lütkepohl, 1991; vymyatnina, 2005; forest, 2014). these results conclude that the vecm model is stable to ensure that the analysis of the impulse response and variance decomposition is effective. arintoko & kadarwati does monetary policy respond to macroeconomic shocks? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 179 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 inverse roots of ar characteristic polynomial figure 1 inverse roots of ar characteristic polynomial the estimated parameters of the vecm model based on the var model in equations (1) – (4) are presented in table 5 and table 6. table 5 shows the cointegration relationship indicated in this model. meanwhile, the overall estimation of the vecm model produces the estimated parameters presented in table 6. table 5 cointegrating equations cointegrating equations (ces) cointegrating equation 1 cointegrating equation 2 𝑷𝑰𝑹𝒕−𝟏 1 0 𝑳𝑵𝑮𝑫𝑷𝒕−𝟏 0 1 𝑰𝑵𝑭𝒕−𝟏 -0.7327*** 0.0681*** 𝑳𝑵𝑬𝑹𝒕−𝟏 -0.4119 0.6607 c -6.7149 -7.638 *** p-value < 0.01 the two cointegration relationships indicated in this model are the inflation and exchange rate relations with policy interest rates and gdp, respectively. in particular, the issue studied is that inflation and exchange rates have a positive relationship with policy interest rates. policy interest rates increase when inflation and exchange rates rise. meanwhile, gdp increases when inflation and exchange rates fall or depreciate. in table 6, both cointegration relationships have significant negative coefficients, which is reflected in their error-correction term (ect), on policy interest rates adjustment in the short run. however, only ect 1 is as expected because it is between -1 and 0. the optimal lag in the model was determined based on the minimum akaike information criterion (aic) and schwarz information criterion (sic) values, in addition to being based on the highest values of r2 and adjusted r2. the criteria for selecting the best model include r2, adjusted r2, aic, and sic (gujarati & porter, 2009). the model is chosen if r2 and adjusted r2 are the highest among the tested models. meanwhile, based on aic and sic, the chosen model is a model that has a minimum aic and sic. from the test results of models with lags, the 4-lag model competes with the 3-lag model to be chosen as the best model. the arintoko & kadarwati does monetary policy respond to macroeconomic shocks? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 180 4-lag model has aic and sic values of -4.8028 and -2.1467. meanwhile, the 3-lag model has aic and sic values of -4.6186 and -2.4850. however, the 4-lag model has higher r2 and adjusted r2 values for each equation in the model than the 3-lag model, in addition to having a lower aic than the 3-lag model. the 4-lag model has r2 values in each equation of 0.6304, 0.9413, 0.5312, and 0.3650, and has adjusted r2 values of 0.5049, 0.9213, 0.3720, and 0.1494, as reported in table 4 and table 6. meanwhile, the 3-lag model has r2 values in each equation of 0.5234, 0.9288, 0.4911, and 0.3059, and has adjusted r2 values of 0.4083, 0.9116, 0.3683, and 0.1383. the 4-lag model, therefore, has more information than the 3-lag model. thus, the 4-lag model was chosen as the best model for the vecm model. so, the model with four lags is the model chosen as the fittest model supported by data. table 6 vector error correction estimates equation pir lngdp inf lner ect 1 -0.1715** -0.0008 0.2755 0.0099 ect 2 -2.3618*** -0.0075 -4.4339** -0.0876 𝑃𝐼𝑅𝑡−1 0.6360*** 0.0007 1.3525 -0.0214 𝑃𝐼𝑅𝑡−2 -0.1369 0.0017 0.0914 0.0340** 𝑃𝐼𝑅𝑡−3 0.0670 -0.0021 0.2412 -0.0015 𝑃𝐼𝑅𝑡−4 0.1506 0.0018 -0.3481 0.0117 𝐿𝑁𝐺𝐷𝑃𝑡−1 24.2412** -0.2842** 48.6314* 0.2016 𝐿𝑁𝐺𝐷𝑃𝑡−2 15.8438* -0.3466*** 36.2857 0.4696 𝐿𝑁𝐺𝐷𝑃𝑡−3 19.6120** -0.3396*** 42.4056 0.2285 𝐿𝑁𝐺𝐷𝑃𝑡−4 16.9447* 0.6617*** 40.9457 0.2816 𝐼𝑁𝐹𝑡−1 -0.0097 -0.0002 -0.0619 0.0069 𝐼𝑁𝐹𝑡−2 0.0630 0.0000 0.1283 -0.0046 𝐼𝑁𝐹𝑡−3 -0.0191 -0.0003 0.1627 -0.0026 𝐼𝑁𝐹𝑡−4 -0.0302 0.0003 -0.1793 0.0059 𝐿𝑁𝐸𝑅𝑡−1 -1.1109 0.0238 0.6716 0.0842 𝐿𝑁𝐸𝑅𝑡−2 0.4472 0.0034 5.9550 -0.2598** 𝐿𝑁𝐸𝑅𝑡−3 -0.7626 0.0191 -1.2037 0.0806 𝐿𝑁𝐸𝑅𝑡−4 -1.8765 0.0077 -1.4172 -0.0776 c -1.0691 0.0176 -2.0844 -0.0199 r2 0.6304 0.9413 0.5312 0.3650 adjusted r2 0.5049 0.9213 0.3720 0.1494 *** p-value < 0.01, ** p-value < 0.05, * p-value < 0.1 figure 2 on the top left shows a positive policy rate response to the interest rate shock itself. policy interest rates respond positively to unexpected changes in the policy interest rate itself in a quarter. after two quarters of its implementation, the policy rate response declined for seven quarters. therefore, the policy interest rate shock will affect the policy interest rate for eight quarters. after the first eight quarters, the positive effect of the shock tends to be persistent over a 30 period time horizon. so, persistently the effect of interest rate shock was responded to positively by interest rate policy through monetary policy carried out by the central bank. arintoko & kadarwati does monetary policy respond to macroeconomic shocks? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 181 -.2 .0 .2 .4 .6 5 10 15 20 25 30 response of pir to pir -.2 .0 .2 .4 .6 5 10 15 20 25 30 response of pir to lnoutput -.2 .0 .2 .4 .6 5 10 15 20 25 30 response of pir to inf -.2 .0 .2 .4 .6 5 10 15 20 25 30 response of pir to lner response to cholesky one s.d. (d.f. adjusted) innovations note: output = gdp figure 2 policy interest rate response to policy interest rate shock, output (gdp) shock, inflation shock, and exchange rate shock unexpected changes in policy interest rates that have occurred will then be responded to by the monetary policy stance as a response to adjustments in conducting monetary policy to achieve the stated goals. interest rate shocks can occur because they are triggered by external shocks, for example by sudden changes in foreign interest rates. bank indonesia usually adjusts its interest rates to us interest rates in anticipation of capital flight out of indonesia, although adjustments, especially in sudden interest rate hikes, are undesired and expected decisions. figure 2 on the top right shows the response of policy interest rates to gdp shock. the gdp shocks affect changes in policy interest rates. policy interest rates respond positively to unexpected changes in gdp. the positive policy interest rate response to the gdp shock lasted for three quarters with a smaller effect than the interest rate shock itself. the positive effect of the gdp shock is neutral after eight quarters. in a time horizon of 30 quarters, the gdp shock eventually has a persistent negative effect on policy interest rates. so, persistently unexpected changes in gdp respond to a persistent decline in the policy interest rate but with a fairly small effect. arintoko & kadarwati does monetary policy respond to macroeconomic shocks? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 182 the results of the impulse response analysis show that there is a monetary policy response to gdp shocks. monetary policy is also mandated to stabilize output, in addition to stabilizing inflation. therefore, monetary policy will respond to gdp shocks through flexible monetary policy. gdp shocks can cause inflation due to demand shocks or supply shocks. the lower left of figure 2 shows the policy rate response to inflation shock. initially, inflation shock was responded negatively in one period by policy interest rates, but the effect was small. however, overall, unexpected changes in inflation were responded positively by policy interest rates. the positive effect of inflation shock occurs persistently over a 30 period time horizon. the unexpected increase in inflation was responded to by persistent increases in the policy interest rate with a larger response size than the response due to the interest rate shock itself. regarding changes in inflation that are responded to by policy interest rates, these empirical results are in line with the results of a study conducted by onder and villamizarvillegas (2018). the difference is that in the previous study the policy interest rate response was to the inflation level, while in this study the policy interest rate response was to inflation shock. the results of this study provide more valuable information than the unexpected changes in inflation to the policy interest rate response. this information is important because monetary policy is implemented within the framework of targeting inflation in an increasingly uncertain economic environment. the positive response of monetary policy through the adjustment of policy interest rates to inflation shocks indicates that the monetary policy stance is in line with the efforts of the central bank to maintain inflation stability by directing inflation according to its target. inflation shock is an important concern for policymakers because of the potential for unexpected sources of inflation such as cost-push inflation and volatile food inflation due to changes in world oil and food prices, as well as the effects of global climate change. the bottom right of figure 2 shows the response of policy interest rates to the exchange rate. exchange rate shock responded negatively by policy interest rates in 5 quarters. overall, the negative policy interest rate response to exchange rate shock was persistent over a 30 period time horizon. a persistently negative response means that unexpected changes in the exchange rate are responded negatively by the bi7drr interest rate as the policy interest rate. shock in the event of an unexpected increase in the exchange rate (unexpected appreciation) was responded to by a decrease in the policy interest rate. with symmetric assumptions, unexpected depreciation is responded to by an increase in policy interest rates. the important role of exchange rate changes in this study is in line with the results of research by yagmur (2016) that exchange rate variability has a significant effect on the implementation of monetary policy. likewise, the empirical results are in line with the results of research conducted by syarifuddin et al. (2014) that exchange rate volatility is responded to by monetary policy. the difference between the changes in the exchange rate from the two previous studies is the variability and volatility, while in this study the change in the exchange rate is the shock. exchange rate shocks reflect conditions of uncertainty and a volatile environment rather than the dynamics of arintoko & kadarwati does monetary policy respond to macroeconomic shocks? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 183 exchange rates as measured by their variability and volatility. the study by leiva-leon et al. (2022) states that exogenous exchange rate shocks play a major role in unanticipated nominal exchange rate movements. the increase in interest rates is aimed at controlling further depreciation and controlling inflation beyond its target. changes in the exchange rate have a major contribution to inflation through imported inflation and the exchange rate pass-through of domestic prices in indonesia. in addition, the monetary policy implemented following the main task of the central bank is to maintain inflation and exchange rate stability. therefore, these empirical results indicate the implementation of monetary policy that is responsive to unexpected changes in the exchange rate. these empirical results prove that the behavior of monetary policy in indonesia is following bank indonesia's commitment to maintaining inflation and exchange rate stability. from the description of the impulse response function, the overall effect of shocks on the response to declining policy interest rates tends to end with a smaller but persistent effect. concerning exchange rates and inflation, policy interest rates respond positively to inflation shocks rather than exchange rate shocks. these results prove that inflation is the main concern and consideration in the monetary policy stance in indonesia, especially in the context of implementing inflation targeting. this is relevant to the monetary policy framework that sets the inflation target, rather than the exchange rate. the exchange rate by the central bank is not targeted at a certain level but is more concerned with volatility that supports exchange rate stability. if measured by forecast error variance, the policy interest rate responses are influenced by the policy interest rate shock itself, gdp shock, inflation shock, and exchange rate shock, each of which can be shown in the variance decomposition in figure 3. the effect of the policy interest rate shock itself is dominant in affecting the forecast error variance of policy interest rates but with a diminishing contribution in a time horizon of 30 quarters. the reduced contribution of the policy interest rate shock itself was accompanied by an increase in the contribution of other shocks, especially exchange rate and inflation shocks in influencing the forecast error variance of policy interest rates. 0 20 40 60 80 100 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 pir lnoutput inf lner variance decomposition of pir using cholesky (d.f. adjusted) factors note: output = gdp figure 3 variance decomposition of policy interest rate arintoko & kadarwati does monetary policy respond to macroeconomic shocks? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 184 exchange rate shock has the largest contribution to the forecast error variance of policy interest rates in a way that it excludes the influence of the policy interest rate shock itself. in a free-floating exchange rate, the more likely an unexpected change in the exchange rate will occur. the relationship between the forecast error variance of policy interest rates on exchange rate shocks indicates that the implementation of monetary policy to achieve inflation that is on target has the main concern on exchange rate fluctuations. an increase in the contribution of exchange rate shocks will cause a forecast error in the variance of policy interest rates, in this case, the bi7drr interest rate, which will be relatively larger determined by exchange rate shocks rather than mainly inflation shocks and gdp shocks as the contribution of interest rate shocks decreases. exchange rate shocks can cause an increase in the forecast error variance of policy interest rates, which will also affect policy effectiveness. the higher the forecast error variance, the less effective the policy for setting interest rates will be. the results of this study complement the repertoire of research on the relationship between monetary policy and exchange rates. if in the study of kim and lim (2018) and kim et al. (2020) monetary policy shock affects the exchange rate, the results of this study provide evidence that the exchange rate shock is also responded to by changes in policy interest rates in the implementation of monetary policy. with symmetric assumptions, unexpected depreciation and appreciation of the exchange rate can increase the forecast error variance of the bi7drr interest rate so that the implementation of monetary policy through setting interest rates creates a gap between the actual interest rate and the expected interest rate. the determination of the policy interest rate to be higher or lower than it should be when the exchange rate shock works. apart from the interest rate shock itself, the inflation shock has the second-largest contribution after the exchange rate shock in influencing the monetary policy response. unexpected changes in inflation also determine the forecast error variance of policy interest rates. meanwhile, gdp shock also contributed to the forecast error variance of policy interest rates. the results of this study complement the results of empirical studies on the effect of monetary policy shock on output and inflation from the opposite side. in a study conducted by mumtaz and zanetti (2013), kandil (2014), and olayiwola (2018) monetary policy shock affects output and inflation, then in this study inflation and output or gdp shocks are also responded to by monetary policy. however, the contribution of gdp shock in a time horizon of 30 quarters shows the magnitude of the contribution that tends to be constant. this means that the gdp shock plays a relatively small role in the forecast error variance compared to exchange rate and inflation shocks. overall, the estimation results of the model, which were observed through impulse response and variance decomposition, show that monetary policy in indonesia responds to exchange rate shocks, inflation shocks, and gdp shocks. flexible inflation targeting policy can respond to macroeconomic shocks by stabilizing inflation through changes in policy interest rates. this finding is following the explanations proposed by mishkin and serletis (2011) and mankiw (2016). in addition, this finding proves that monetary policy is active in responding to inflationary shocks, especially those from exchange rate shocks. the response to exchange rate shocks contributed the greatest impact because unexpected changes in the exchange rate could cause supply shocks and demand shocks. arintoko & kadarwati does monetary policy respond to macroeconomic shocks? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 185 unexpected exchange rate changes are very influential on the monetary policy response and are in line with the findings by yagmur (2016) and syarifuddin et al. (2014) on the important role of the exchange rate in the monetary policy response. inflationary shocks and gdp shocks were also responded to by monetary policy because they were inflationary shocks. this finding corroborates the results of a study conducted by li et al. (2021). unexpected changes in inflation and output can be responded to flexibly by policy interest rates. the overall results conclude that monetary policy in indonesia responds to macroeconomic shocks and this finding is in line with the conclusions of the discussions by baeriswyl and cornand (2010) and onder and villamizar-villegas (2018) from their study results. conclusion this study provides empirical results that changes in policy interest rates as a reflection of the monetary policy stance respond to the effects of inflation shock, exchange rate shock, and gdp shock in addition to the policy interest rate shock itself. from the impulse response function, the policy interest rate responds positively to the inflation shock with a persistent final impact and a smaller effect size. exchange rate shocks were responded negatively by changes in policy interest rates. the final impact is persistent with a smaller effect, exchange rate shock has a negative effect on policy interest rates. meanwhile, the gdp shock, which was initially responded to positively but in the end, was persistently responded negatively with a relatively small effect by policy interest rates. inflation shock, exchange rate shock, and gdp shock, having persistent impacts, have a relative contribution to the forecast error variance of policy interest rates, which in turn affects policy effectiveness. the policy is effective if the actual policy interest rate is closer to the expected interest rate in the monetary policy stance. exchange rate shock has the largest contribution apart from interest rate shock itself in determining the forecast error variance of policy interest rates. inflation shock has a smaller contribution than exchange rate shock in determining the forecast error variance of policy interest rates. meanwhile, gdp shock has the smallest contribution to determining the forecast error variance of policy interest rates. forecast error variance in general can determine the effectiveness of monetary policy which in turn affects the credibility of the policy. inflation and exchange rate shocks based on the magnitude of their impact and contribution are the most important macroeconomic shocks in influencing the monetary policy stance in indonesia. these two shocks need to be a priority focus for policymakers in implementing inflation-targeting monetary policy in an increasingly uncertain and rapidly changing macroeconomic environment. in addition to the interests of the domestic economy, monetary policy also needs to remain focused on considering and adapting to dynamic global economic and financial developments. however, this research is limited to the study period gathered during the pre-pandemic era in indonesia, so the number of observations was also relatively limited. the applied model does not include structural changes that may occur when the effects of the pandemic impact structural changes in the observation period. therefore, future research arintoko & kadarwati does monetary policy respond to macroeconomic shocks? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 186 is needed by developing and applying a var model that can provide model stability when there are structural changes during the study period. references abbasinejad, h., tavakolian, h., & husseini, s. k. 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10.18196/jesp.17.2.3735 analisis faktor faktor yang mempengaruhi ketahanan pangan rumah tangga petani (studi kasus : desa timbulharjo, sewon, bantul) vizia lukri damayanti, rifki khoirudin fakultas ekonomi & bisnis, universitas ahmad dahlan jl. kapas no. 9, semaki, umbulharjo, yogyakarta email korespondensi: vizialukrid@yahoo.co.id naskah diterima: juni 2016; disetujui: oktober 2016 abstract: this study aims to determine the factors that affect food security of farm households in timbulharjo village, sewon, bantul. factors used in this study were income, head of family education, age of head of household, marital status, number of family members and ownership of savings account. this study uses primary data obtained from direct interviews by asking a list of questions. the analytical technique used was logistic regression analysis, then completed by using the maximum likelihood method which included nagelkerke r square equivalent to coefficient of determination (r2), significance test simultaneously (overall model test) is equivalent to f test in linear regression, wald test is equivalent to t test on ols. the income and education of the head of the household have a positive effect on food security, while the number of family members has a negative effect on food security. based on the partial test, the income variable, the education of the head of the household, the number of family members affect the food security, while the age of the head of the family, marital status, and savings ownership have no effect on food security. keywords: food security, farm household jel classifications: d1, d3 abstrak: penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi ketahanan pangan rumah tangga petani di desa timbulharjo, sewon, bantul. faktor yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah pendapatan, pendidikan kepala keluarga, usia kepala keluarga, status perkawinan, jumlah anggota keluarga dan kepemilikan simpanan tabungan. penelitian ini menggunakan data primer yang diperoleh dari wawancara langsung dengan mengajukan daftar pertanyaan. data yang digunakan yaitu 98 sampel secara insidental dari 4.628 petani di desa timbulharjo, sewon, bantul. teknik analisis yang digunakan adalah analisis regresi logistik, selanjutnya diselesaikan dengan menggunakan metode maximum likelihood yang meliputi nagelkerke r square setara dengan koefisien determinasi (r2), pengujian signifikansi secara simultan (overall model test) setara dengan uji f dalam regresi linier, uji wald setara dengan uji t pada ols. hasil penelitian menunjukan bahwa pendapatan, pendidikan kepala keluarga dan jumlah anggota keluarga berpengaruh terhadap ketahanan pangan dengan tingkat signifikansi 5%. nilai nagekerke r square 0,363. pendapatan dan pendidikan kepala keluarga berpengaruh positif terhadap ketahanan pangan, sedangkan jumlah anggota keluarga berpengaruh negatif terhadap ketahanan pangan. berdasarkan uji parsial maka variabel pendapatan, pendidikan kepala keluarga, jumlah anggota keluarga berpengaruh terhadap ketahanan pangan, sedangkan usia kepala keluarga, status perkawinan, dan kepemilikan tabungan tidak berpengaruh terhadap ketahanan pangan. kata kunci: ketahanan pangan, rumah tangga petani klasifikasi jel: d1, d3 mailto:vizialukrid@yahoo.co.id 90 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016: 89-96 pendahuluan ketahanan pangan merupakan hak asasi manusia (ham). setiap orang berhak memperoleh makanan yang layak dan sesuai dengan kebutuhannya. berdasarkan undangundang no 18 tahun 2012, yang dimaksud dengan ketahanan pangan adalah ”kondisi terpenuhinya pangan bagi negara sampai dengan perseorangan, yang tercermin dari tersedianya pangan yang cukup, baik jumlah maupun mutunya, aman, beragam, bergizi, merata, dan terjangkau serta tidak bertentangan dengan agama, keyakinan, dan budaya masyarakat, untuk dapat hidup sehat, aktif, dan produktif secara berkelanjutan.” pertanian merupakan sektor terpenting sebagai penopang untuk memenuhi kebutuhan hidup orang banyak, khususnya kebutuhan hidup makanan pokok manusia sebagai wujud peningkatan kesejahteraan bangsa dan negara. kabupaten bantul merupakan salah satu daerah lumbung pangan yang potensial di daerah istimewa yogyakarta (diy), khususnya produksi tanaman padi. luas lahan sawah kabupaten bantul pada tahun 2014 menurut dinas pertanian dan kehutanan tercatat 15.191 ha, pada tahun 2014 produksi tanaman padi sawah tercatat 192.711 ton dengan rata-rata produksi sebesar 63,90 kw/ha, produksi tanaman padi ladang 136 ton dengan rata-rata produksi 45,25 kw/ha. selain produksi padi, kabupaten bantul juga dapat memproduksi bahan pangan lain seperti jagung, kacang tanah, kedelai maupun berbagai produk pertanian lainnya. sektor pertanian merupakan penyumbang terbesar perekonomian di kabupaten bantul terutama produksi tanaman pangan (padi dan palawija). tanaman padi sawah merupakan komoditas terbesar di kecamatan sewon. berdasarkan data kependudukan 2016 jumlah penduduk bantul produktif menurut jenis pekerjaan (usia angkatan kerja) kecamatan sewon merupakan kecamatan dengan penduduk terbanyak yang bekerja sebagai petani di kabupaten bantul . jumlah penduduk sewon yang berkerja sebagai petani sebanyak 15.166 orang atau 11,07% dari jumlah total petani di kabupaten bantul 136.919 orang. desa timbulharjo merupakan salah satu desa yang ada di kecamatan sewon, desa tersebut memiliki letak topografis tanah yang rata, sebagian besar lahannya dimanfaatkan oleh masyarakat untuk lahan pertanian, sehingga sebagian besar masyarakat desa adalah petani. jumlah penduduk desa timbulharjo yang bekerja sebagai petani adalah 4.628 orang atau 30,51% dari 15.166 orang yang terdiri dari 2.523 petani laki-laki dan 2.105 petani perempuan. desa timbulharjo merupakan desa dengan jumlah petani terbanyak di kecamatan sewon. beberapa penelitian sebelumnya menyebutkan bahwa terdapat beberapa faktor yang mempengaruhi ketahanan pangan suatu daerah. faktor yang paling berpengaruh terhadap ketahanan pangan rumah tangga adalah jumlah anggota keluarga dan pengeluaran rt. penelitian yang dilakukan oleh sulistyowati (2014) tentang faktor yang mempengaruhi ketahanan pangan rumah tangga miskin di kecamatan srandakan bantul menyatakan bahwa faktor jenis kelamin dan jenis pekerjaan tidak berpengaruh terhadap tingkat ketahanan pangan. adapun faktor yang dapat mempengaruhi ketahanan pangan rtm di srandakan antara lain umur kepala rtm, status perkawinan, jumlah anggota keluarga dan pendapatan. dan faktor yang paling dominan mempengaruhi ketahanan pangan rtm yaitu jumlah anggota keluarga dan pendapatan rumah tangga. supriyanto (2014) menyatakan bahwa faktor pendapatan kepala keluarga dan tingkat pendidikan berpengaruh positif terhadap ketahanan pangan, sedangkan kemampuan memenuhi kebutuhan keuangan (simpanan) berpengaruh negatif tehadap tingkat ketahanan pangan. jumlah anggota keluarga, umur kepala keluarga tidak mempengaruhi tingkat ketahanan pangan rumah tangga tani. analisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi… (vizia lukri damayanti, rifki khoirudin) 91 metode penelitian populasi dan sampel populasi dalam penelitian ini adalah rumah tangga petani yang ada di desa timbulharjo, sewon, bantul. adapun jumlah petani di desa timbulharjo sebanyak 4.628 orang petani yang terbagi dalam 16 dusun dengan 123 rukun tetangga (rt). jadi jumlah populasi dalam penelitian ini ada 4.628 petani. penentuan sampel dalam penelitian ini dihitung dengan rumus slovin (hasan, 2000) sebagai berikut: n= keterangan : n = ukuran sampel n = ukuran populasi e = error term (variabel pengganggu) ketidaktelitian karena kesalahan pengambilan sampel yang dapat ditolelir atau diujikan. penelitian ini menggunakan tingkat kesalahan yang ditolerir 10%. n = n = 98 berdasarkan perhitungan slovin, maka jumlah sampel dalam penelitian ini sejumlah 98 responden. jenis data dan sumber data data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini diantaranya adalah : (1) data primer; data primer yang diperoleh dengan memberikan kuesioner yang ditujukan kepada responden (rumah tangga petani di desa timbulharjo, sewon, bantul) meliputi pengeluaran pangan dan non pangan rumah tangga, pendapatan, jumlah anggota keluarga, umur kepala keluarga, pendidikan kepala keluarga, status perkawinan. tujuannya untuk memperoleh informasi yang relevan dalam penelitian ini. (2) data sekunder; data sekunder merupakan sumber penelitian yang diperoleh secara tidak langsung. data diperoleh dengan mengumpulkan data-data yang ada di biro pusat statistik (bps) kabupaten bantul dan monografi data kelurahan. data yang diambil merupakan data mengenai rumah tangga petani sebagai suatu penelitian empiris, maka datadata sekunder dalam penelitian ini juga dapat diperoleh dari artikel, jurnal, dan penelitianpenelitian terdahulu yang berkaitan dengan tingkat ketahanan pangan rumah tangga petani. teknik pengumpulan data 1. metode wawancara (interview) penelitian ini menggunakan metode interview secara terstruktur menggunakan panduan kuesioner (angket) sebagai panduan utama. dalam metode ini digunakan untuk membantu menjelaskan kepada responden apabila responden kurang jelas dalam menjawab angket. 2. metode kuesioner (angket) kuesioner merupakan teknik pengumpulan data yang dilakukan dengan cara memberi seperangkat pertanyaan atau pernyataan tertulis kepada responden untuk dijawab. kuesioner merupakan teknik pengumpulan data yang efisien bila peneliti tahu dengan pasti variabel yang akan diukur dan tahu apa yang bisa diharapkan dari responden (sugiyono, 2009). alat analisis data metode analisis data dalam penelitian ini menggunakan teknik analisis kuantitatif. analisis kuantitatif dilakukan dengan cara menganalisis permasalahan yang diwujudkan dengan data yang dapat dijelaskan secara kuantitatif. metode analisis yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah analisis regresi logistik. logistic regresi merupakan teknik statistik yang tepat ketika variabel dependen berbentuk diskret atau kategorial (non-metrik) dan variabel independennya dapat berbentuk metrik atau non-metrik. dengan kata lain logistic regresi merupakan pendekatan model matematika yang dapat digunakan untuk 92 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016: 89-96 menggambarkan hubungan dari beberapa x variabel untuk sebuah dikotomi dependen variabel. pada logistic regresi tidak mensyaratkan banyak asumsi seperti normalitas data serta hasilnya tetap robust walaupun ada asumsi yang dilanggar. jika kita hanya ingin memprediksi dua kategorial dependen variabel maka analisis ini disebut binary logistic variabel, tapi jika kita ingin memprediksi lebih dari dua kategori dependen variabel maka kita harus menggunakan analisis multnominal logistic regresi. hasil dan pembahasan 1. uji kelayakan model (goodness of fit test) tabel 1. hosmer and lemeshow test step chi-square df sig. 1 6.906 8 0.547 sumber : hasil output spss 16 hipotesis : ho: model telah cukup mampu menjelaskan data/sesuai ha: model tidak cukup mampu menjelaskan data terlihat dari tabel bahwa nilai sig = 0,547 yang berarti lebih dari 0,05 maka keputusanya adalah menerima ho sehingga kesimpulanya adalah model telah cukup mampu menjelaskan data sesuai dengan kata lain model dinyatakan layak atau fit untuk digunakan analisis selanjutnya. 2. pengujian koefisien determinasi (nagelkerke r square) hasil output estimasi dapat dilihat pada tabel 2. untuk melihat kemampuan variabel independen dalam menjelaskan variabel dependen, digunakan nilai cox & snell r square dan nagelkerke r square. nilai-nilai tersebut disebut juga dengan pseudeo r square atau jika pada regresi (ols) lebih dikenal dengan istilah r square. tabel 2. pengujian koefisien determinasi (nagelkerke r square model summary) step -2 log likelihood cox & snell r square nagelkerke r square 1 103.000a .270 .363 a= estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because parameter estimates changed by less than ,001. sumber : hasil output spss 16 nilai nagelkerke r square sebesar 0,363 yang menunjukan bahwa kemampuan variabel independen dalam menjelaskan variabel dependen adalah sebesar 0,363 atau 36,3% dan terdapat 100% 36,3% = 63,7% faktor lain di luar model yang menjelaskan variabel dependen. variabel pendapatan, pendidikan kepala keluarga, usia kepala keluarga, status perkawinan, jumlah anggota keluarga dan kepemilikan simpanan tabungan dapat menjelaskan ketahanan pangan sebesar 36,3% sisanya dijelaskan di luar model. 3. pengujian presentase ketepatan model penelitian berdasarkan tabel pengujian presentase ketepatan model penelitian pada classification table, jumlah sampel yang tidak tahan pangan 47 + 9 = 56 orang. yang benar-benar tidak tahan pangan sebanyak 47 orang dan yang seharusnya tidak mengalami tidak tahan pangan namun justru mengalami sebanyak 9 orang. jumlah sampel yang tahan pangan 14 + 28 = 42 orang. yang benar-benar tahan pangan sebanyak 14 orang dan yang seharusnya tahan pangan tetapi tidak mengalaminya sebanyak 28 orang. tabel 3. pengujian presentase ketepatan model penelitian classification tablea observed predicted ketahanan pangan percentage correct 0 1 step 1 ketahanan pangan 0 47 9 83.9 1 14 28 66.7 overall percentage 76.5 a= the cut value is ,500 sumber : hasil output spss 16 analisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi… (vizia lukri damayanti, rifki khoirudin) 93 dalam interprestasi regresi logistik dengan spss: tabel di atas memberikan nilai overall percentage sebesar (47+28)/ 98 = 76,5% yang berarti ketapatan model penelitian ini adalah sebesar 76,5%. 4. uji simultan tabel 4. uji simultan (overall test) omnibus test of model coefficients chi-square df sig. step 1 step 30.850 6 .000 block 30.850 6 .000 model 30.850 6 .000 sumber : hasil output spss 16 hipotesis : ho: tidak ada pengaruh signifikan secara simultan pendapatan, pendidikan kepala keluarga, usia kepala keluarga, status perkawinan, jumlah anggota keluarga dan kepemilikan simpanan tabungan terhadap ketahanan pangan. ha: ada pengaruh signifikan secara simultan pendapatan, pendidikan kepala keluarga, usia kepala keluarga, status perkawinan, jumlah anggota keluarga dan kepemilikan simpanan tabungan terhadap ketahanan pangan. nilai p-value chi-square sebesar 0,000 di mana alpha<0,05 maka ho ditolak sehingga jawaban terhadap hipotesis pengaruh simultan variabel independen terhadap variabel dependen. kesimpulanya adalah ada pengaruh signifikan secara pendapatan, pendidikan kepala keluarga, usia kepala keluarga, status perkawinan, jumlah anggota keluarga dan kepemilikan simpanan tabungan terhadap ketahanan pangan. 5. uji parsial tabel 5. uji parsial variables in the equations b s.e. wald df sig. exp(b) step 1a pendapatan .000 .000 7.864 1 .005 1.000 pendidikan_kk .743 .302 6.005 1 .014 2.103 usia_kk -.003 .025 .017 1 .896 .997 status_perkawinan 1.007 .676 2.224 1 .136 2.739 jak -.702 .303 5.375 1 .020 .495 simpanan_tabungan -.481 .546 .776 1 .378 .618 constant -1.361 1.949 .488 1 .485 .256 a. variable(s) entered on step 1: pendapatan, pendidikan_kk, usia_kk, status perkawinan, jak, simpanan_tabungan, constant. sumber : hasil output spss 16 a. pendapatan (x1) hipotesis : ho: tidak ada pengaruh pendapatan terhadap ketahanan pangan ha: ada pengaruh pendapatan terhadap ketahanan pangan dari hasil analisis variabel pendapatan nilai signifikansi sebesar 0,005 < 0,05 sehingga menolak ho, sehingga ada pengaruh pendapatan terhadap tingkat ketahanan pangan rumah tangga petani di desa timbulharjo, sewon, bantul. hal tersebut menunjukan bahwa kenaikan pendapatan diikuti dengan ketahanan pangan meskipun kemungkinan peningkatan probabilitas pendapatan hanya sebesar 0,00%. hasil penelitian ini sejalan dengan hasil penelitian yang diperoleh oleh (supriyanto, 2014) yang menyatakan bahwa pendapatan mempunyai pengaruh positif terhadap peluang rumah tangga petani untuk tahan pangan dengan menganggap variabel lain konstan. b. pendidikan kepala keluarga (x2) hipotesis : ho: tidak ada pengaruh pendidikan kepala keluarga terhadap ketahanan pangan. ha: ada pengaruh pendidikan kepala keluarga terhadap ketahanan pangan. 94 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016: 89-96 dari hasil analisis variabel pendidikan kepala keluarga nilai signifikansi sebesar 0,014 <0,05 sehingga menolak ho, sehingga ada pengaruh pendidikan kepala keluarga terhadap tingkat ketahanan pangan rumah tangga petani di desa timbulharjo, sewon, bantul. hal tersebut menunjukkan bahwa semakin tinggi tingkatan pendidikan kepala keluarga diikuti dengan ketahanan pangan. hasil penelitian ini sejalan dengan hasil penelitian yang diperoleh oleh (supriyanto, 2014) yang menyatakan bahwa pendidikan kepala keluarga mempunyai pengaruh positif terhadap peluang rumah tangga petani untuk tahan pangan dengan menganggap variabel lain konstan. c. usia kepala keluarga (x3) hipotesis : ho: tidak ada pengaruh usia kepala keluarga terhadap ketahanan pangan. ha: ada pengaruh usia kepala keluarga terhadap ketahanan pangan. dari hasil analisis variabel usia kepala keluarga nilai signifikansi sebesar 0,896>0,05 sehingga menerima ho, sehingga tidak ada pengaruh usia kepala keluarga terhadap tingkat ketahanan pangan rumah tangga petani di desa timbulharjo, sewon, bantul. hasil penelitian ini sejalan dengan hasil penelitian yang diperoleh oleh (sulistyowati, 2014) yang menyatakan bahwa usia kepala keluarga tidak mempunyai pengaruh terhadap peluang rumah tangga petani untuk tahan pangan. hal tersebut terjadi karena sebagian besar responden (petani) berusia inproduktif atau telah berusia >65 tahun, sedangkan usia seseorang dapat mempengaruhi produktivitas dalam bekerja. semakin tua umur seseorang, maka produktivitaspun semakin menurun. hal itu karena kekuatan fisik yang ada tidak sekuat sewaktu seseorang itu masih muda. d. status perkawinan (x4) hipotesis : ho: tidak ada pengaruh status perkawinan terhadap ketahanan pangan. ha: ada pengaruh status perkawinan terhadap ketahanan pangan. dari hasil analisis variabel status perkawinan nilai signifikansi sebesar 0,136>0,05 sehingga menerima ho. sehingga, tidak ada pengaruh status perkawinan terhadap tingkat ketahanan pangan rumah tangga petani di desa timbulharjo, sewon, bantul. hasil penelitian ini berbeda dengan hasil penelitian yang diperoleh oleh (sulistyowati, 2014) yang menyatakan bahwa status perkawinan mempunyai pengaruh terhadap peluang rumah tangga petani untuk tahan pangan. perbedaan tersebut terjadi karena pada penelitian (sulistyowati, 2014) didominasi rumah tangga yang berstatus nikah. penelitian tersebut menyatakan bahwa rumah tangga yang berstatus nikah lebih tahan pangan dikarenakan dengan status nikah, maka suami istri tersebut bisa bekerjasama untuk memenuhi kebutuhan pangan sehari-hari. berbeda dengan penelitian ini karena dalam penelitian ini membahas mengenai rumah tangga petani yang pendapatannya tidak menentu tergantung iklim, hasil panen, dan faktor lainya. meskipun hasil pengujian signifikansi 0,136>0,05 berarti bahwa tidak signifikan atau tidak ada pengaruh antara status perkawinan dengan ketahanan pangan, akan tetapi hasil pengujian dari hipotesis menunjukan positif. hal ini terjadi karena meskipun rumah tangga petani berstatus menikah, akan tetapi penghasilan yang diperoleh oleh suami/istri petani tersebut tidak banyak, sehingga meskipun suami istri bekerjasama untuk memenuhi kebutuhan pangan sehari-hari masih belum mencukupi dikarenakan pengeluaran yang dikeluarkan tidak sebanding dengan pendapatan yang diperoleh. selain itu juga beberapa istri petani di desa timbulharjo tidak bekerja dan menjadi ibu rumah tangga. analisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi… (vizia lukri damayanti, rifki khoirudin) 95 e. jumlah anggota keluarga (x5) hipotesis : ho: tidak ada pengaruh jumlah anggota keluarga terhadap ketahanan pangan. ha: ada pengaruh jumlah anggota keluarga terhadap ketahanan pangan. dari hasil analisis variabel jumlah anggota keluarga nilai signifikansi sebesar 0,020<0,05 sehingga menolak ho. sehingga, ada pengaruh jumlah anggota keluarga terhadap tingkat ketahanan pangan rumah tangga petani di desa timbulharjo, sewon, bantul. jumlah anggota keluarga mempunyai pengaruh yang beragam, di satu sisi jumlah anggota keluarga menurunkan ketahanan pangan karena semakin banyak anggota keluarga dianggap akan menambah beban keluarga dalam memenuhi kebutuhan pangan (pratiwi, 2016). namun di sisi lain jumlah keluarga akan meningkatkan ketahanan pangan, karena banyaknya jumlah keluarga memungkinkan banyaknya anggota keluarga yang bekerja, sehingga dapat meningkatkan ketahanan pangan (susilowati, 2014). hasil penelitian ini sejalan dengan hasil penelitian yang diperoleh oleh (pratiwi, 2016) yang menyatakan bahwa jumlah anggota keluarga mempunyai pengaruh negatif terhadap peluang rumah tangga petani untuk tahan pangan dengan menganggap variabel lain konstan. hal itu terjadi karena beberapa anggota keluarga petani bekerja menjadi buruh harian lepas, laden tukang, penjahit, dan lainlain sehingga penghasilanya tidak menentu atau tidak dapat dipastikan. selain itu beberapa dari anggota keluarga petani di desa timbulharjo masih belum bekerja atau masih sekolah sehingga belum menghasilkan pendapatan. f. kepemilikan simpanan tabungan (x6) hipotesis : ho: tidak ada pengaruh kepemilikan simpanan tabungan terhadap ketahanan pangan. ha: ada pengaruh kepemilikan simpanan tabungan terhadap ketahanan pangan. dari hasil analisis variabel kepemilikan simpanan tabungan nilai signifikansi sebesar 0,378>0,05 sehingga menerima ho. sehingga, tidak ada pengaruh kepemilikan simpanan tabungan terhadap tingkat ketahanan pangan rumah tangga petani di desa timbulharjo, sewon, bantul. hasil penelitian ini sejalan dengan hasil penelitian yang diperoleh oleh (supriyanto, 2014) yang menyatakan bahwa kepemilikan simpanan tabungan mempunyai tidak ada pengaruh terhadap peluang rumah tangga petani untuk tahan pangan dengan menganggap variabel lain konstan. hal ini disebabkan karena masih rendahnya pendapatan masyarakat desa timbulharjo sebagai faktor penyebab rendahnya masyarakat belum dapat menabung, karena pendapatanya hanya cukup untuk memenuhi kehidupan sehari-hari. selain itu sebagian besar tabungan rumah tangga petani di desa timbulharjo selain berupa hewan ternak (ayam, bebek, kambing, sapi). ketika para petani membutuhkan uang untuk biaya sekolah anak ataupun biaya lainya mereka bisa menjual hewan ternaknya sesuai dengan kebutuhannya. 6. uji apriori teoritik tabel 6. uji apriori teoritik variabel hipotesis hasil keterangan pendapatan + + sesuai pendidikan kepala keluarga + + sesuai usia kepala keluarga sesuai status perkawinan -/+ + sesuai jumlah anggota keluarga -/+ sesuai kepemilikan simpanan tabungan -/+ sesuai sumber : data primer tahun 2017 pengujian apriori teoritik dilakukan dengan cara membandingkan kesesuaian tanda diantara variabel estimasi yang digunakan dengan teori ekonomi. apabila telah sesuai maka dapat dikatakan model yang diestimasi telah lolos dalam uji ini. tanda positif menunjukan variabel independen searah dengan variabel dependen, sedangkan tanda negatif menunjukan arah yang berlawanan. 96 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016: 89-96 tabel 9 menunjukan bahwa hasil penelitian ini sesuai dengan hipotesis yang telah disusun berdasarkan pertimbangan-pertimbangan penelitian terdahuu yang relevan. variabel pendapatan, pendidikan kepala keluarga, status perkawinan searah dengan ketahanan pangan, sedangkan variabel usia kepala keluarga, jumlah anggota keluarga dan kepemilikan tabungan berlawanan dengan ketahanan pangan. simpulan simpulan berdasarkan hasil penelitian yang telah dilakukan, maka dapat disimpulkan beberapa hal di bawah ini : 1. hasil analisis variabel pendapatan nilai signifikansi sebesar 0,005 < 0,05 sehingga ho ditolak. jadi ada pengaruh pendapatan terhadap tingkat ketahanan pangan rumah tangga petani di desa timbulharjo, sewon, bantul. 2. hasil analisis variabel pendidikan kepala keluarga nilai signifikansi sebesar 0,014 < 0,05 sehingga ho ditolak. jadi ada pengaruh pendidikan kepala keluarga terhadap tingkat ketahanan pangan rumah tangga petani di desa timbulharjo, sewon, bantul. 3. hasil analisis variabel usia kepala keluarga nilai signifikansi sebesar 0,896 > 0,05 sehingga ho ditolak. jadi tidak ada pengaruh usia kepala terhadap tingkat ketahanan pangan rumah tangga petani di desa timbulharjo, sewon, bantul. 4. hasil analisis variabel status perkawinan nilai signifikansi sebesar 0,136>0,05 sehingga ho ditolak. sehingga, tidak ada pengaruh status perkawinan terhadap tingkat ketahanan pangan rumah tangga petani di desa timbulharjo, sewon, bantul. 5. hasil analisis variabel jumlah anggota keluarga nilai signifikansi sebesar 0,020 < 0,05 sehingga ho ditolak. sehingga, ada pengaruh jumlah anggota keluarga terhadap tingkat ketahanan pangan rumah tangga petani di desa timbulharjo, sewon, bantul. 6. hasil analisis variabel kepemilikan simpanan tabungan nilai signifikansi sebesar 0,378 > 0,05 sehingga ho ditolak. sehingga, tidak ada pengaruh kepemilikan simpanan tabungan terhadap tingkat ketahanan pangan rumah tangga petani di desa timbulharjo, sewon, bantul. 7. secara simultan, pendapatan, pendidikan kepala keluarga, usia kepala keluarga, status perkawinan, jumlah anggota keluarga dan kepemilikan simpanan tabungan berpengaruh terhadap ketahanan pangan rumahtangga petani di desa timbulharjo, sewon, bantul. daftar pustaka hasan, 2000. pokok-pokok materi metodologi penelitian dan aplikasinya. jakarta: ghalia indonesia. rosiana, pratiwi, 2016. analisis tingkat ketahanan pangan rumah tangga petani di desa kenongorejo kecamatan bringin kabupaten ngawi. swara bhumi. vol 4, no 02. sugiyono, 2009. metode penelitian bisnis. alfabeta. bandung. supriyanto, teguh. 2014 di kecamatan karanggede kabupaten boyolali. “analisis tingkat ketahanan pangan rumah tangga tani desa mandiri pangan”. skripsi. surakarta: universitas sebelas maret. susilowati, heni. 2014. faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi ketahanan pangan rumah tangga miskin di kecamatan srandakan bantul. skripsi. yogyakarta: universitas negeri yogyakarta. undang-undang ketahanan pangan no 18 tahun 2012: ketentuan umum pasal 1 ayat (4). didapatkan: http://jdih.bpk.go.id/wpcontent/uploads/2012/03/uu-nomor18-tahun-2012.pdf http://jurnalmahasiswa.unesa.ac.id/index.php/swara-bhumi/ http://jdih.bpk.go.id/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/uu-nomor-18-tahun-2012.pdf http://jdih.bpk.go.id/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/uu-nomor-18-tahun-2012.pdf http://jdih.bpk.go.id/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/uu-nomor-18-tahun-2012.pdf microsoft word 04-hudi jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 11, nomor 1, april 2010, hlm.38-50   modal inisiasi indikator kinerja finansial hudiyanto fakultas ekonomi universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta jalan lingkar selatan, kasihan, bantul yogyakarta, indonesia telepon:+62-274-387656 e-mail: hudiyantoumy@yahoo.com abstract: the effectiveness of the policies of poverty reduction in the region of the poor and the excluded are always limited by the ironic fact. on the one hand, there is an outflow of assets from village to an area outside the village in the form of savings, skilled resources, human resources, social capital, and political capital, while on the other hand the availability of funds to survive in the area is relatively small. it rises what is called a negative inflow. to overcome the problem of poverty in communities experiencing negative inflow, it needed model of economic development approach based on the potential to utilize local assets. solving the problem with relying on external parties (banks, government agencies, commercial) can no longer expect much. this study attempts to reveal the potential and the possibility of development of financial institutions "from, for, and by community". this study aimed to identify not only financial capital but also social capital and political capital possessed by the society to overcome the problems they face. this research was conducted to identify not only financial capital but also social capital and political capital possessed by the people to overcome their problems. keywords: public services, quality of service, financial performance, social capital abstrak: efektifitas kebijakan pengentasan kemiskinan di kawasan orang miskin (the poor) dan yang terpinggirkan (the excluded) selalu terkendala oleh fakta ironis. di satu sisi ada aliran asetyang keluar (outflow) dari desa ke kawasanluar desa berupa tabungan, sumberdaya terampil, sumberdaya insani, modal sosial, dan modal politik, sedang di sisi lain ketersediaan dana untuk bertahan hidup bagi kawasannya relatif sedikit. hal ini memunculkan apa yang disebut dengan negative inflow. untuk mengatasi persoalan kemiskinan pada masyarakat yang mengalami negative inflow semacam itu diperlukan model pendekatan pengembangan ekonomi yang berbasis potensi yang memanfaatkan aset lokal. mengatasi masalah dengan menyandarkan diri pada pihak luar (bank, pemerintah, lembaga komersial) tidak lagi bisa diharapkan. studi ini mencoba mengungkappotensi dan kemungkinan pengembangan lembaga keuangan “dari, untuk, dan oleh komunitas”. penelitian ini dilakukan untuk mengidentifikasi bukan saja modal finansial melainkan juga modal sosial dan modal politik yang dimiliki oleh masyarakat untukmengatasi persoalan yang mereka hadapi. kata kunci: layanan publik, kualitas layanan, kinerja finansial, modal sosial pendahuluan ada dua isu yang menarik berkaitan dengan dunia perbankan dalam tahun ini. pertama, perkembangan mengesankan perbankan syariah nasional diikuti dengan optimisme berlanjutnya kecenderungan itu di tahun 2011. total aset perbankan syariah tumbuh di atas 33 persen per tahun selama lima tahun terakhir dengan nilai mencapai rp86 triliun pada oktober 2010. optimisme ditunjukkan dengan semakin bertambahnya jumlah bank syariah yang saat ini mencapai 11 bank umum syariah, 23 unit usaha syariah, dan 146 bprs dengan jaringan kantor sebanyak 1.625 unit. dilihat dari sebarannya jaringan kantor perbankan syariah juga telah menjangkau masyarakat di modal inisiasi indikator kinerja finansial (hudiyanto) 39 lebih dari 89 kabupaten/kota di 33 provinsi. isu penting yang kedua berkaitan dengan pencanangan program dan gerakan perbankan global dan nasional tentang financial inclusion, yaitu suatu program untuk mendekatkan dunia perbankan yang selama ini “elitis” untuk bias menjangkau orang orang yang terpinggirkan. mereka terpinggirkan dari perbankan, unbankable, karena tidak bisa menjangkau persyaratan dunia perbankan, bahkan ketika perbankan nasional telah menurunkan persyaratannya seperti dalam program kur. kesadaran global dan perbankan indonesia untuk “introspeksi” dalam upaya menjangkau kaum dhuafa dan mustadhafien ini tentu menjadi menarik dan menumbuhkan harapan bagi upaya pengentasan masalah kemiskinan di indonesia. tabel 1. financial inclusion dan penduduk miskin negara composite index financial inclusion %tase pddk miskin india bangladesh brasil china republik korea indonesia malaysia pilipina srilangka thailand 48 32 43 42 40 68 60 26 59 59 28,6 48,8 22,1 46 27 25,0 36,8 25,0 13,1 sumber: bank dunia, 2008 data dalam tabel 1 menunjukkan bahwa negara dengan proporsi penduduk yang tersisih dari lembaga keuangan yang besar cenderung mempunyai persentase penduduk miskin yang tinggi. artinya program penjangkauan orang miskin pada akses perbankan diyakini akan menurunkan angka kemiskinan. dua isu yang amat berbeda itu kemudian memunculkan pertanyaan tentang apa yang terjadi dan harus dilakukan oleh perbankan syariah. ketika perbankan konvensional melakukan ekslusi terhadap kaum dhuafa dan mustadhafien, apakah perbankan syariah juga melakukan yang sama. akan menarik kiranya untuk melihat peluang bagi perbankan syariah untuk menjalankan misi pengentasan kemiskinan lewat financial inclusion. pertanyaan ini menarik mengingat perbankan syariah seharusnya dekat dengan kelompok kelompok sosial keagamaan yang per definisi memiliki modal sosial sebagai modal dasar bagi keberhasilan pelaksanaan financial inclusion. identifikasi masalah. kinerja keuangan yang ditetapkan dalam dunia perbakan di indonesiamerupakan kinerja baku yang digunakan oleh dunia perbankan pada umumnya, sebagai cara untuk menjaga kesehatan bank. pada satu sisi indikator kesehatan itu bisa menjaga kesehatan dan sekaligus kredibilitas serta stabilitas keuangan bank dan ekonomi secara keseluruhan. namun di sisi lain indikator itu menghadapkan dunia perbankan pada situasi yang sulit ketika melayani masyarakat kelompok bawah. mereka yang terpinggirkan (the excluded) adalah kelompok-kelompok yang secara ekonomi, sosial, dan politik rentan seperti: petani lahan sempit; petani tak bertanah, buruh tani, buruh serabutan; pekerja mandiri (industri kecil, pedagang kaki lima, asongan); warga di kampung kumuh perkotaan; para migran; kelompok-kelompok yang secara sosial tersisihkan; wanita; dan para jompo kelompok tersebut tidak bankable dalam mendapatkan kredit, namun bankable kalau menyimpan di bank. perbankan bisa menerima uang dari masyarakat miskin dalam bentuk tabungan, namun sebaliknya masyarakat miskin dianggap ”tidak bankable” ketika ingin mendapatkan kredit. hal ini bisa ditunjukkan oleh data rendahnya nilai loan to deposit ratio (ldr) pada bank bank di daerah, bahkan pada bank perkreditan rakyat sekalipun. pada akhirnya mereka mengalami ketersingkiran finansial untuk mendapatkan dana yang murah dan mudah. kelompok itu secara finansial tersisihkan (excluded) karena dua faktor: (1) dari sisi masyarakat miskin, secara sosial lemah, kurang berpendidikan, pendapatan rendah dan secara sosial tersisihkan, (2) dari sisi lain kantor perbankan secara fisik maupun psikologis jauh. prosedur yang diberlakukan berbelit, dokumen yang rumit, macam kredit yang tidak pas jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 11, nomor 1, april 2010: 38-50 40 dengan siklus dan sifat mata pencaharian penduduk, dan faktor psikologis perbankan yang “berjarak”. dua kondisi itu memunculkan fenomena “dua dunia” yang tidaksaling menyapa. pertemuan di antara keduanya menjadi terasa mahal: mahal bagi penabung, mahal bagi pengutang, namun juga mahal bagi perbankan. karena kedua belah pihak merasa mahal, maka muncullah pihak ketiga yang dikenal dengan pelepas uang, rentenir dengan bunga 20-30 persen per bulan. dalam kaitan inilah maka perumusan mengenai indikator untuk menilai perbankan menjadi penting. penelitian ini mencoba memotret keterapan dari indikator keuangan perbankan oleh lembaga lembaga keuangan mikro dan lembaga keuangan yang dibentuk oleh masyarakat. dalam jangka panjang studi ini bertujuan merumuskan dan menyebarluaskan penggunaan variabel dan indikator yang relevan untuk mengukur keberhasilan lembaga keuangan mikro maupun lembaga perbankan pelaksana skema kredit mikro pada lembaga perbankan syariah.pengkajian, perumusan dan penyebarluasan social performance indicator ini merupakan upaya alternatif karena satu-satunya indikator yang digunakan untuk mengukur lembaga keuangan mikro saat ini adalah financial performance indiator. dualisme sektor finansial. (1) sektor keuangan bagi si miskin. penelitian ini penting dan strategis bagi pengentasan kemiskinan karena kelompok miskin dan terpinggirkan sering terlewat dari proses pembangunan. sistem perbankan selalu tidak ramah bagi orang miskin karena mereka dianggap “tidak bankable”. orang miskin hanya bisa menabung, sementara mereka tidak mempunyai akses untuk mencari pinjaman dari bank. sekalipun program untuk orang miskin seperti kur dijalankan dan bank perkreditan rakyat dibangun, namun akses untuk mendapatkan kredit tetap “tertutup” sehingga orang miskin dan yang terpingirkan itu selalu dekat dengan kehidupan rentenir. fakta itu bisa digambarkan dalam gambar 1. perencanaan pembangunan bagi kelompok masyarakat miskin, tertinggal, dan tidak terjangkau (the excluded) memang telah banyak dikembangkan di indonesia sejak orde baru (ifri, 2005). namun pengembangan kelembagaan (koperasi unit desa/kud, kelompok masyarakat/pokmas, bank perkreditan rakyat, bmt, dan lembaga lembaga lain yang mewakili aspirasi kelompok miskin)cenderung bersifat gambar 1. problem aliran dana masuk dan keluar di desa lembaga perbankan penduduk miskin kemunduran kemunduran outflow dana (tabungan) inflow dana outflow sda outflow sdm outflow asset rentenir modal inisiasi indikator kinerja finansial (hudiyanto) 41 top down lewat proyek cetakbiru (blue print). model cetak biru memang model yang paling mudah untuk memassalkan (replikasi secara nasional) sehingga secara kuantitas cepat menunjukkan keberhasilan pengembangan lembaga. namun di sisi lain pemassalan model spesifikitu (yang berasal dari suatu studi spesifik) sebenarnya sering kurang tepat mengingat adanya perbedaan struktur, kultur dan lingkungan sosial di suatu daerah/komunitas berbeda dari sektor modern, pengembangan lembaga ekonomi yang melibatkan kelompok miskin dan terpinggirkan sangat rentan terhadap perbedaan stuktur dan lingkungan sosialnya. dalam masyarakat modern modal finansial amat penting dalam pengembangan suatu lembaga ekonomi. namun pada lembaga tradisional yang melibatkan kelompok miskin yang sebenarnya harus dipertimbangkan adalah modal sosial (social capital). dalam kaitan ini pengalaman menunjukkan bahwa modal sosial sering diabaikan dalam pembentukan dan pengembangan lembaga ekonomi rakyat. hal ini disebabkan oleh terjadinya replikasi secara nasional dari suatu model yang ditemukan secara spesifik di suatu daerah. berbeda dengan modal finansial yang bebas nilai dan bisa direplikasi secara nasional, modal sosial amat terkait dengan struktur dan lingkungan sosial. replikasi massal (nasional, regional) cenderung menghancurkan nilai nilai sosial yang seharusnya dikembangkan. sejalan dengan pengembangan lewat proyek cetak biru secara massal oleh pemerintah pada akhirnya lembaga ekonomi itu cenderung bersifat elitis (pengurus), birokratis, dan bekerja berdasarkan “proyek”. model cetak biru sudah saatnya dihentikan, untuk kemudian digantikan dengan pengembangan model kelembagaan yang dikembangkan dari nilai nilai, struktur dan lingkungan sosial yang masih murni (genuine). model yang dirancang tidak harus sama antar kelompok atau daerah, melainkan harus disesuaikan dengan karakteristik dan lingkungan sosialnya masing masing. untuk itu maka inisiasi lembaga itu harus dimulai dan digali pada masing masing daerah. karena setiap daerah atau komunitas selalu mempunyai karakterisik yang khas maka diperlukan kaji tindak (action research). kaji tindak akan dilakukan sesuai dengan ragam karakteristik masyarakat yang ada. dengan demikian diharapkan berbagai modifikasi model akan bisa dihasilkan dalam berbagai kaji tindak. modifikasi dan adaptasi harus dilakukan untuk menghindari replikasi massal. dalam hal inilah maka pendekatan partisipatori riset ini menjadi amat relevan. perbankan nasional baik yang dimiliki oleh swasta nasional maupun swasta asing telah berkembang pesat masuk ke daerah. ada dua fungsi dari perbankan yaitu fungsi mobilisasi dana (dalam bentuk tabungan, simpanan, deposito) dari penduduk setempat dan fungsi pembiayaan (kredit) bagi para nasabah. dari dua fungsi itu, perbankan nasional cenderung mengambil peran dalam bentuk mobilisasi dana baik pada nasabah besar maupun mikro namun dalam prakteknya sistem perbankan nasional cenderung tidak melakukan hal yang seimbang dalam mengalokasikan dana hasil mobilisasi dari daerah itu bagi pembiayan di daerah bersangkutan. lembaga perbankan formal cenderung lebih banyak “menyerap dana dari daerah” dibandingkan dengan “membiayai aktifitas ekonomi penduduk setempat”. data menunjukkan dari total penyerapan dana dari masyarakat diy sebesar rp263 milyar, hanya sebesar 32,4 persen (rp109 milyar) yang kemudian disalurkan dalam bentuk kredit kepada masyarakat lokal. ini bisa disimpulkan bahwa sisanya (67,6 persen) dari dana yang berhasil di serap dan kemudian lari ke luar diy. hal yang sama juga terjadi di daerah lain seperti di hamper semua daerah (hudiyanto, 2005). karena terjadi pada hampir semua daerah hal ini menunjukkan bahwa proses monetisasi di masyarakat cenderung menyerap dana dari daerah untuk digunakan pada usaha besar di luar daerah. tentu cukup ironis bahwa ketika dana mengalir ke usaha besar di luar daerah, penduduk miskin cenderung dan harus mencari sumber pendanaan dari lembaga informal dan ilegal dengan bunga yang cukup tinggi. adalah kenyataan bahwa usaha mikro (gurem, kecil sekali) cenderung terabaikan dan tidak mampu mengikuti derap pembangunan. hal ini mengingatkan kita pada apa yang dikemukakan oleh bung hatta bahwa sementara ekonomi indonesia telah terhubung dengan ekonomi nasional dan global, ada “lapis ketiga yang jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 11, nomor 1, april 2010: 38-50 42 dihuni oleh sebagian besar pribumi” yang tidak ikut tersambung (hatta, 1954). ketika di satu sisi praktek perbankan modern dengan bunga yang murah telah banyak berlangsung, pada saat yang sama, di sisi lain, banyak orang miskin seperti nelayan, pedagang kecil di pasar tradisional, pedagang asongan, dan kaki lima yang terpaksa berhubungan dengan “bank swasta” atau rentenir. berbagai studi menunjukkan bahwa ketika suku bunga perbankan hanya sekitar 1 persen per bulan, kelompok miskin ini tetap saja meminjam uang dari rentenir dengan bunga mencapai 10-20 persen perbulan (raharjo, 1984). berbagai studi menunjukkan bahwa di kawasan pedesaan hal semacam ini terjadi (dalam bentuk “arisan”, pinjam tetangga, dan lain-lain). mereka seolah berada di “dunia lain” yang inferior, yang akan selalu tertinggal dalam proses pembangunan yang cenderung hanya membawa serta mereka yang berada pada sektor modern sebagai sektor“ superior” (boeke, 1984). kelompok miskin di pedesaan tidak lepas kaitannya dengan lembaga keuangan non formal maupun illegal dalam bentuk rentenir atau istilah lokal lain sering dikenal dengan “bank thithil”, “bank monggo sampun”,“bank uwel uwel”, “bank plecit”, mindring, tawke, sistem “ijon” di kalangan nelayan maupun petani,dan berbagai penamaan lainnya (hudiyanto, 1986). berbagai program nasional telah dijalankan, untuk menjangkau kredit murah bagi kelompok paling miskin, termasuk program kredit untuk petani (kur). namun sejauhmana berbagai program itu efektif dalam menjangkau kelompok paling miskin kiranya masih diragukan. meskipun kur dicanangkan bagi penduduk miskin, dalam kenyataan, operasional di lapangan menunjukkan bahwa akses bagi kur tidaklah semudah yang dikampanyekan. prosedur regular perbankan masih digunakan sehingga tidak memungkinkan bagi kelompok mikro (lebih tepatnya disebut kelompok gurem) untuk mengakses program itu. kredit mudah dan murah itu ternyata tidak bisa menjangkau kelompok paling miskin di daerah. (2) modal sosial pada si miskin. kenyataan menyadarkan bahwa nasib kaum miskin (the poor) dan terpinggirkan (the excluded) tidak bisa disandarkan kepada pihak lain. berbagai studi mengingatkan bahwa orang miskin sebenarnya bukan “tidak mempunyai apa apa” (de soto, 2000) melainkan “mempunyai sesuatu” yang bisa diandalkan yang dikenal dengan modal sosial dan modal politik. keluarga miskin bisa menerapkan seperangkat cara untuk mengatasi masalah yang melingkupi hidupnya (edi suharto, 2002). mosher (1998) menyatakan bahwa strategi penanganan masalah ini pada dasarnya merupakan kemampuan segenap anggota keluarga dalam mengelola berbagai aset yang dimilikinya yang kemudian disebut sebagai “asset portfolio management”. berdasarkan konsepsi ini, moser (1998:4-16) membuat kerangka analisis yang disebut “the asset vulnerability framework”. desoto menunjukkan bahwa aset yang dimiliki oleh orang miskin sebenarnya bisa diberdayakan. orang miskin yang nampaknya tidak berdaya itu sebenarnya mampu dengan segala cara untuk bisa bertahan hidup, hanya saja diperlukan pendampingan dari pihak lain untuk melakukan perubahan (desoto, 2000). namun aset inilah yang sering kali dianggap tidak ada oleh sistem perbankan sehingga diabaikan dalam proses pembangunan. bahkan sebaliknya aset itu “dihancurkan” oleh proses komersialisasi dan “proyekisasi lewat pendekatan top down-nya. aset orang miskin begitu beragam meliputi (1) aset tenaga kerja (labour assets), misalnya meningkatkan keterlibatan wanita dan anakanak dalam keluarga untuk bekerja membantu ekonomi rumah tangga. (2) aset modal manusia (human capital assets), misalnya memanfaatkan status kesehatan yang dapat menentukan kapasitas orang untuk bekerja atau keterampilan dan pendidikan yang menentukan kembalian atau hasil kerja (return) terhadap tenaga yang dikeluarkannya. (3) aset produktif (productive assets), misalnya menggunakan rumah, sawah, ternak, tanaman untuk keperluan hidupnya. (4) aset relasi rumah tangga atau keluarga (household relation assets), misalnya memanfaatkan jaringan dan dukungan dari sistem keluarga besar, kelompok etnis, migrasi tenaga kerja, dan mekanisme “uang kiriman” (remittances). (5) aset modal sosial (social capital assets), misalnya memanfaatkan lembaga-lembaga sosial lokal, arisan, dan pemberi kredit modal inisiasi indikator kinerja finansial (hudiyanto) 43 informal dalam sistem perekonomian keluarga (suharto, 2002) dua pendekatan pengembangan lembaga keuangan. dalam pengelolaan ekonomi nasional berbagi aset itu cenderung selalu diabaikan. namun mohammad yunus telah membuktikan bahwa dengan mengelola aset-aset itu maka masyarakat miskin di bangladesh bisa membangun dirinya sendiri lewat inisiasi bank berkonsep ”dari, untuk dan oleh orang desa” yaitu grameen bank (yunus, 2006). inisiasi dan pengembangan grameen bank ini yang mengantarkan penghargaan nobel perdamaian bagi yunus tahun 2006. inisiasi bank grameen ini kemudian menginspirasi pengembangan lembaga serupa di berbagai negara. bank grameen sebenarnya bukan yang pertama. ide bank grameen sebenarnya justeru dari indonesia yang di masa lalu mempunyai bank rakyat indonesia. di masa lalu berbagi negara termasuk bangladesh belajar perbankan dari pengalaman bank rakyat indonesia. namun sayangnya bank rakyat indonesia yang menjadi rujukan berbagi pihak di masa lalu (penjajahan) kini justru cenderung melepaskan kaitannya dengan aset sosial-politik yang sebenarnya dimiliki oleh rakyat. kini bank bri mempunyai kecenderungan yang sama dengan perbankan nasional yang menggunakan konsep 5 c (collateral, capital, character, capacity). konsep itu pada dasarnya menolak memberikan kredit bag orang yang tidak mempunyai kolateral/ jaminan, atau dengan kata lain menyimpulkan bahwa orang miskin dan yang terpinggirkan tidak layak bagi perbankan (unbankable). akhirnya rakyat cenderung kehilangan induk sehingga satu satunya jalan yang mereka tempuh adalah tetap menggantungkan diri pada lembaga lembaga pelepas uang atau rentenir. meskipun demikian masyarakat sebenarnya terus mengembangkan aset yang dimiliki oleh penduduk sebagaimana dimaksudkan oleh mosher. hal ini nampak pada masih berkembangnya berbagai bentuk kelompok sosial keagamaan yang mengembangkan model arisan, simpan pinjam dan berbagai pertemuan yang cenderung mengandalkan ada kepercayaan (trust) di antara anggotanya. model penyelesaian mereka terkenal lewat konsep tangung renteng. konsep tanggung renteng ini yang juga menjadi kunci keberhasilan dari lembaga seperti pusat koperasi wanita jawa timur (puskowanjati) yang berpusat di malang (indriyo,2006). hal yang juga banyak dikembangkan oleh usaha lain di pedesaan jawa seperti di kulon progo ketika pemerintah daerah setempat menganggarkan dana cadangan pemberdayaan desa (dcpb) (smeru, 2002, mubyarto, 2004) metode penelitian penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan participatory action research (par) (fernandes, 1993, mc taggart, 1989), yang merupakan penggabungan antara riset dan aksi atau dikenal juga sebagai kaji tindak. dengan par data dan informasi didapatkan lewat keterlibatan peneliti (fasilitator) dan refleksi kritis tentang apa yang terjadi di lapangan, untuk selanjutnya digunakan untuk melakukan modifikasi dan aksi baru. dalam satu putaran, proses penelitian dengan metode ini bisa digambarkan dalam gambar 2 (rory obrien, 1989). gambar 2. proses penelitian pendekatan participatory action research (par) dengan pendekatan ini peneliti memfasilitasi pengungkapan informasi dari bawah (bottom up) lewat fase perencanaan, aksi, monitoring, dan refleksi. peneliti juga akan memfasilitasi para stakeholder untuk bisa bersama-sama memutuskan apa yang perlu diasses, merancang diagnosing identifying or defining a problem action planning considering alternative courses of action taking action selecting a course of action evaluating studying the consequences of an action identifying general findings specifying learning jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 11, nomor 1, april 2010: 38-50 44 masa depan dan mengumpulkan informasi yang diperlukan. studi ini akan mendorong suatu proses belajar yang membantu para pihak untuk terus belajar bersama setelah fasilitasi eksternal (peneliti) berakhir. untuk mendukung pendekatan ini pengambilan informasi dilakukan dengan metode focus group discussion (fgd). fgd dilakukan pertama pada lembaga lembaga keuangan yang sudah mapan, baik lembaga perbankan maupun non perbankan. fgd pada lembaga mapan dimaksudkan untuk memotret potret dan mekanisme penerapan kinerja finansial ala perbankan. proses fgd ini kemudian dilanjutkan dengan memotret lembaga lembaga sosial pada tingkat akar rumput yang menjalankan fungsi mobilisasi dan alokasi dana. hal ini dimaksudkan untuk memotret sejauhmana kinerja lembaga diukur. hasil dan pembahasan inisiasi indikator kinerja sosial dalam pengembangan lembaga keuangan mikro banyak lembaga keuangan mikro yang mempunyai misi dan komitmen untuk membuka akses pada kelompok miskin (the poor) dan yang terpinggirkan (the excluded). sejalan dengan kecenderungan di industri, lembaga keuangan mikro ini telah mengadopsi seperangkat indikator finansial lewat bentuk pelaporan dan petunjuk pelaporan untuk menentukan “tingkat kesehatan lembaga keuangan”. namun di sisi lain tidak ada seperangkat indikator kinerja sosial untuk menilai “kesehatan bank”. kini kecenderungan global mulai berubah setelah world social forum merekomendasikan kinerja sosial sebagai indikator. industri keuangan mikro tidak lagi hanya menggunakan financial indicator namun mulai menggabungkan dengan“social indicator”, hal yang masih baru bagi indonesia. pada bagian ini akan dikemukakan tentang indikator yang pada umumnya digunakan untuk melakukan penilaian kesehatan lembaga keuangan mikro, kemudian melihat keterapan (applicability)-nya pada lembaga keuangan mikro pada daerah penelitian. ukuran umum kinerja keuangan lembaga keuangan mikro cukup beragam antarnegara dan lembaga pengembangnya sebagaimana diikhtisarkan dalam tabel 1. indikator kinerja kesehatan keuangan lembaga keuangan mikro umumnya dikategorikan menjadi tiga yaitu (1) kualitas portofolio, (2) stabilitas keuangan, dan (3) efisiensi. berbagai lembaga menggunakan komponen yang berbeda untuk mengukur ketiga indikator kinerja tersebut. ukuran kinerja yang dibuat oleh cgap (consultative group to assist the poerest) merupakan ukuran yang paling lengkap dimana semua ukuran financial yang standar digunakan untuk mengukur tingkat kesehatan lkm. kelengkapan ukuran kinerja dengan demikian cukup meyakinkan bagi kesehatan lembaga keuangan mikro. namun demikian penggunaan ukuran kinerja yang lengkap ini sering dianggap “terlalu canggih” dan “terlalu ekonomis” bagi lembaga keuangan yang berorientasi untuk mengatasi masalah kemiskinan karena pada level ini sering tidak applicable. bila indikator kinerja keuangan terlalu menonjol pada satu lembaga keuangan mikro, pada akhirnya akan mengeliminasinilai nilai sosial yang seharusnya kental untuk menjangkau orang yang miskin (the poor) dan terpinggirkan (the excluded). oleh karena itu sejumlah lembaga mengunakan kriteria kinerja yang lebih sederhana. keterapan indikator kinerja lembaga keuangan kesenjangan antara kriteria kinerja ideal dengan kenyataan lapangan yang dihadapi oleh lembaga keuangan mikro pada tingkatan basis (kelompok) mendorong sejumlah lembaga menyaring indikator kinerja lembaga keuangan mikro sehingga bisa diterapkan (applicable). berikut ini disajikan tinjauan umum atas keterapan (applicability) dari ukuran kinerja tersebut. portfolio quality. kualitas portofolio (portfolio quality), khususnya tingkat pembayaran kembali pinjaman (repayment rate), adalah indikator kinerja yang paling penting bagi lkm karena indikator tersebut merupakan prasyarat utama agarmampu mandiri dan sustainable dalam jangka panjang. repayment rate merupakan penentu utama apakah sebuah program mampu bertahan. kinerja kualitas portofolio ditentukan dengan oleh tiga indikator yaitu pembayaran kembali (repayment rate), tingkat tunggakan dan (arrears rate) dan kerugian pinjaman modal inisiasi indikator kinerja finansial (hudiyanto) 45 karena macet dan mungkin harus dihapusbukukan (loan loss). bagi lembaga keuangan mikro yang sudah mapan atau cenderung bermotif mencari keuntungan, semua kriteria itu akan digunakan untuk membangun lembaganya dan pada akhirnya untuk berhadapan dengan nasabah. namun bagi lembaga keuangan mikro yang masih kecil maupun lembaga keuangan yang telah mapan namun mempunyai tujuan sosial yang lebih luas, kriteria itu tidak selalu dijadikan sebagai ukuran. the world cuncil of credit unions (woccu), accion international dan the micro banking bulletin (mbb), misalnya, bahkan tidak menggunakan tingkat pembayaran kembali sebagai ukuran kinerja lembaga keuangan mikro. dalam hal ini kedua lembaga ini hanya menggunakan kriteria tingkat tunggakan (baik dalam ukuran portfolio at risk maupun arrears rate) sebagai acuan. profitability dan stability. bagi lembaga keuangan mikro yang sudah besar dan mapan yang telah mendasarkan diri pada kinerja finansial dan yang cenderung bermotif mencari keuntungan (profit motive), kemampuan untuk membukukan keuntungan dan jaminan stabilitas lembaga untuk berlanjut (sustainable) menjadi fokus perhatian. hal ini yang ditunjukkan oleh kriteria yang digunakan oleh cgap. namun bagi lembaga yang besar namun mempunyai kepedulian sosial yang tinggi untuk menjangkau orang miskin dan yang terpinggirkan, cenderung tidak menggunakan semua kriteria itu. microstat program yang diinisiasi oleh undp mempunyai prinsip bahwa “yang penting bisa jalan” sehingga hanya menempatkan ukuran operational sustainability dan liquidity sebagai kriteria kinerja. bagi lembaga semacam itu seberapa untung (return on asset, return on equity) tidak menjadi pertimbangan utama. prinsip “yang penting jalan” adalah prinsip yang digunakan oleh lembaga keuangan mikro semacam ini, sejalan dengan prinsip yang umumnya dipakai oleh anggota yang umumnya beromset amat kecil (mikroba, gurem) yaitu “ yang penting bisa hidup”, atau “bisa makan setiap hari”, atau “bisa membiayai keluarga”. efisiensi. efisiensi merupakan kata amat penting dalam bisnis, termasuk bisnis dalam pemberian kredit kepada sektor mikro. efisiensi bisa dilihat dari biaya yang diperlukan untuk memberikan pelayanan pinjaman kepada nasatabel 1. ukuran kinerja finansial dan keberlanjutan lembaga keuangan mikro indikator wwb cgap mbb micro stat woccu accion quality of portfolio -repayment rate √ √ portfolio at risk √ √ √ √ √ arrears rate √ √ √ loan loss √ √ profitability and stability operational sustainability √ √ √ √ financial sustainability √ √ √ return on assets √ √ √ √ return on equity √ √ √ liquidity √ √ √ √ √ √ loan loss provision √ √ √ efficiency cost per loan √ √ cost per borrower √ √ √ cost per unit money lent √ √ √ √ √ number of loan per credit officer √ √ √ amount of loans per credit officer √ √ ratio of credit officer to tal staff √ √ adminsistrative efficiency √ √ personnel costs √ √ sumber: dai/finnet,2003 dikutip dari wardoyo dan hendro prabowo jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 11, nomor 1, april 2010: 38-50 46 bah (cost per loan), rata rata biaya yang harus dikeluarkan oleh lembaga per peminjam (cost per borrower), biaya yang dikeluarkan per unit uang yang dipinjamkan (cost per unit money lent), jumlah peminjaman (orang)yang bisa direalisasikan oleh seorang petugas bidang perkreditan (number of loans per credit officer), nilai total pinjaman yang bisa diupayakan per petugas kredit (amount of loans per credit officer), maupun biaya biaya administratif dan personal yang harus dilakukan oleh lembaga dalam menjalankan usahanya. bagi lembaga yang mapan dan bermotif mencari keuntungan, kesemua biaya itu harus dihitung sebagaimana dilakukan oleh cgap. namun tentu saja kriteria semacam itu akan sangat jauh dari kenyataan yang dihadapi oleh lembaga lembaga keuangan yang bergulat dan berusaha menjangkau kelompok miskin dan yang terpinggirkan dalam upayanya mengatasi masalah kemiskinan. inilah yang disadari oleh woccu sehingga sama sekali tidak mempertimbangkan aspek efisiensi dalam mengembangkan lembaga keuangan mikro. indikator kinerja lkm hasil survei dengan menggunakan kriteria kinerja dan pola umum yang dipakai sejumlah lembaga pengembangan lembaga keuangan mikro berikut ini diikhtisarkan gambaran keterapan (applicability) dalam kasus lkm yang dikunjungi sebagaimana dalam tabel 2. pada tabel 2 bisa dilihat bahwa lembaga keuangan mikro yang menjadi benchmark dalam studi ini (puskowanjati, setia budi wanita, dan citra kartini) sudah menerapkan kriteria kesehatan keuangan sebagai lembaga keuangan sebagaimana umumnya dipakai oleh berbagai tabel 2. keterapan kriteria indikator keuangan lembaga keuangan mikro kriteria p u s k o w a n ja t i s e t ia b a k t i w a k it a c it r a k a r t in i b p r s w ad ar m a b m t a rt h a l o k a, p p u a ri sa n d ar i k ek er ab at an w a n a m a n u n g g a l l e s t a r s im p an p in ja m d i r u k u n t et an g g a s im p an p in ja m d i k eg ia ta n k ea g am aa n portfolio quality repayment rate √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ portfolio at risk √ √ √ √ √ arreast rate √ √ √ √ √ loan loss √ √ √ √ √ sustainability operational sustainability √ √ √ √ √ financial sustainability √ √ √ √ √ return on assets √ √ √ √ √ return on equity √ √ √ √ liquidity √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ √ loan loss provision √ √ √ √ √ √ √ efficiency cost per unit loan √ √ √ √ cost per borrower √ √ √ √ cost per money lent √ √ √ √ number of loans per credit officer √ √ √ √ amount of loan per credit officer √ √ √ ratio of credit officer to total staff √ √ √ administrative efficiency √ √ √ personnel costs √ √ √ sumber: diolah dari informasi lapangan modal inisiasi indikator kinerja finansial (hudiyanto) 47 lembaga yang sudah “mapan.” hal ini mengingat lembaga itu telah menjadi lembaga besar dan mapan sehingga memerlukan kriteria kinerja, baik dalam kaitan kepentingan internal (sustainability lembaga) maupun dalam kepentingan hubungan dengan pihak eksternal sebagai lembaga yang kredibel. sebaliknya kelompok kelompok yang dijadikan studi ini hampir tidak mengikuti kriteria sebagaimana telah digunakan oleh lembaga keuangan yang dijadikan benchmark dalam studi ini. lalu apa yang harus dilakukan? haruskah kelompok yang didampingi oleh cef javlec diajarkan untuk bisa memenuhi kriteria yang secara universal digunakan? dengan keberhasilan puskowanjati mengenalkan konsep tanggung renteng dan menjadikan puskowanjati sebagai lembaga keuangan mikro yang jangkauannya luas dan omsetnya besar, bisa timbul pemikiran untuk menjadikan puskowanjati sebagai benchmark yang harus diikuti. namun studi di empat lembaga keuangan formal dampingan cef javlec dan kunjungan di tiga lembaga benchmark membawa pada kesimpulan yang berbeda. konsep tanggung renteng di tingkat kelompok yang diikuti dengan kriteria kinerja keuangan yang mapan dan baku pada tingkat pusat (puskowanjati) maupun koperasi primer memang telah membawa lembaga menjadi bisa berkembang dan bisa berkelanjutan. ada jaminan bahwa secara finansial rentabilitas, likuiditas, dan sustainability lembaga akan terjamin. namun pada tingkat kelompok hal ini bisa menyebabkan tersaringnya anggota hanya pada orang yang secara finansial mampu untuk ikut dalam kelompok binaan lembaga. mereka yang merasa tidak mampu tidak akan masuk atau akan keluar dari kelompok. tanggung renteng bisa menjadi “alat yang efektif” bagi lembaga bagi pembayaran kembali utang dari anggota, namun bisa menyebabkan orang miskin dan terpinggirkan menjadi semakin jauh dari jangkauan lembaga keuangan. inisiasi indikator kinerja sosial perkembangan dan peran lembaga keuangan mikro (lkm) dalam perbankan di indonesia semakin penting. di sektor formal terdapat kredit skala kecil (kupedes) oleh bank rakyat indonesia, namun juga hampir semua perbankan nasional saat ini mempunyai skema perkreditan mikro. kredit untuk rakyat bisa dilihat pada peran dari bri unit desa (13.700 unit) dan lembaga keuangan mikro lainnya seperti bkd (5.345 unit) dan lpkd (2.525 unit) yang meliputi. demikian juga yang dikaitkan dengan koperasi (6.400 unit) dan lembaga swadaya masyarakat, kelompok informal (100.000 unit, dan arisan (150.000 unit). dalam perkembangan terakhir pemerintahpun melancarkan program kredit usaha rakyat (kur) yang melibatkan 6 perbankan nasional untuk memberikan kredit kepada rakyat (usaha mikro) namun di tengah maraknya perkembangan kredit mikro dan lembaga keuangan mikro tersebut muncul kecenderungan terjadinya pergeseran orientasi. lembaga keuangan mikro bukan lagi digunakan untuk menanggulangi kemiskinan melainkan lebih kepada upaya pencitraan dan penghimpunan modal. tujuannya bukan lagi pada seberapa besar penduduk miskin bisa terjangkau oleh perbankan untuk mengatasi keterbatasan keuangannya melainkan pada seberapa besar dan seberapa bisa kredit yang dikucurkan kepada usaha mikro bisa memberikan keuntungan kepada lembaga. kinerja yang dijadikan sebagai alat valuasi adalah “prinsip kehati-hatian”, “pengurangan resiko”, efisiensi dana”, dan berbagai kriteria finansial lainnya. pergeseran orientasi ini tidak bisa dielakkan karena kinerja finansial (financial performance) menjadi satu-satunya tolok ukur yang tersedia untuk menilai keberhasilan sebuah lembaga keuangan. kinerja finansial itulah yang secara internal digunakan untuk evaluasi diri dan melaksanakan tugas sampai ke tingkatan manajemen terendah, dan sekaligus digunakan oleh pihak eksternal (pemerintah) untuk menilai tingkat keseriusan lembaga perbankan dan lembaga keuangan mikro dalam menjalankan misi sosialnya. selama kinerja yang disepakai sebagai alat penilaian hanya kinerja finansial maka sulit bagi publik untuk melakukan pengawasan atas kinerja lembaga keuangan mikro. konsekuensinya adalah bahwa sekalipun pemerintah mengupayakan perbankan untuk melaksanakan kredit usaha rakyat (kur), tingkat keberhasilan dan kepatuhan perbankan untuk jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 11, nomor 1, april 2010: 38-50 48 melaksanakannya tidak selalu sejalan dengan tingkat manfaat yang diterima oleh rakyat. kinerja finansial (financial performance) yang “baik” tidak selalu berarti adanya manfaat yang optimal bagi rakyat. studi di 3 lembaga keuangan mikro yang sudah mapan (puskowanjati, koperasi setia budi wanita, dan koperasi citra lestari) sebagai benchmark dan pada empat koperasi dampingan cef javlec menunjukkan adanya kesenjangan yang tajam. pada lembaga keuangan yang menjadi benchmark, kinerja lembaga diukur secara finansial dan sebagai upaya untuk mencapai kestabilan dan sustainabilitas lembaga. penggunaan kinerja keuangan itu telah terbukti mampu mengembangkan lembaga keuangan mikro. namun pada sisi lain, pada tingkatan kelompok (subur makmur boyolali, kedai halimun bogor, hasana mojokerto, dan wana manunggal lestari gunung kidul) indikator kinerja yang berfokus pada kinerja keuangan kurang bisa diterapkan. hal ini karena, pertama, terlalu rumit (njlimet), tidak imbang dengan besaran dana yang dikelola. kerumitan dan akhirnya kebosanan terhadap indikator ini bisa membuat sebuah kelompok menjadi “kering” dan bersifat birokratis finansial. kedua, karena penggunaan indikator kinerja keuangan cenderung mengabaikan aspek sosial yang sebenarnya justeru kental pada kelompok. kelompok yang terbentuk pada tingkat grass root adalah kelompok murni kekerabatan dengan anggota yang amat beragam dari sisi sosial ekonominya. bila tidak mempertimbangkan kesiapan kelompok (lembaga keuangan tingkat primer, konsep tanggung renteng yang digunakan oleh puskowanjati bisa menyebabkan kelompok miskin (the poor) dan yang tersisih (the excluded) akan cenderung dihindari atau tersisih dari jangkauan lembaga keuangan mikro lewat proses waktu. oleh karena penekanan pada aspek finansial bisa menauhkan lembaga keuangan mikro dari mereka yang miskin dan termarginalkan makaindikator kinerja yang dibuat untuk menilai seharusnya bukan hanya indikator keuangan melainkan lebih lagi indikator sosial (social performance). penilaian kinerja sosial (social performance) merupakan proses yang dilakukan oleh lembaga keuangan untuk mengukur kaitan antara kinerja sosial dengan misi dan tujuan lembaga yang telah diumumkan ke publik. hal ini dilakukan karena bisa saja terjadi lembaga yang mencantumkan “visi, misi, dan tujuan” yang peduli terhadap rakyat ternyata dalam kenyataannya tidak pro terhadap rakyat. kinerja finansial tidak bisa mengukur kaitan antara visi, misi, tujuan lembaga dengan apa yang secara riil dilakukan. oleh karena itu identifikasi variabel, kriteria dan indikator keberhasilan lembaga keuangan mikro dalam menjalankan misi dan tujuannya menjadi amat penting sebagai pegangan bagi kepentingan evaluasi internal dan eksternal. solusi penting yang harus dipikirkan untuk menghentikan disorientasi lembaga keuangan mikro maupun skema kredit mikro adalah dengan mencari dan merumuskan kriteria dan ukuran alternatif dalam menilai bank pelaksana kredit mikro lewat apa yang dinamakan dengan kinerja sosial (social performance) dari lembaga keuangan mikro. keberhasilan lembaga keuangan mikro bukan saja dilihat dari kinerja keuangannya melainkan pada kinerja sosial. sebagian besar perbankan yang menjalankan misi lembaga keuangan mikro memang telah secara eksplisit mencantumkan misi sosial. namun misi ini jarang sekali dimonitor dan dinilai tingkat pencapaiannya. lembaga keuangan mikro telah otomatis dianggap pro rakyat ketika menyatakan “kepro-rakyatannya” dalam dokumen dokumen; diasumsikan bahwa ketika visi dan misinya telah pro rakyat lalu perilaku dan kinerjanya akan pro rakyat. dalam kaitan inilah maka perlu dirumuskan pengukuran akan kinerja yang tepat. temuan rumusan social performance akan merupakan sumbangan pemikiran yang amat strategis bagi pengembangan ekonomi rakyat di indonesia sejalan dengan pendekatan yang digunakan dalam berbagai studi (cerise, 2003), penilaian indikator kinerja sosial (social performance indicator) memfokuskan diri pada empat dimensi kinerja sosial sebagai berikut: dimensi 1: orientasi lembaga pada kelompok miskin (the poor) dan terpinggirkan (the excluded) yang tidak memiliki akses ke sektor perbankan modern (unbankable). dalam dimensi ini penilaian atas lkm didasarkan pada seberapa jauh lkm mengarahkan usahanya pada kelommodal inisiasi indikator kinerja finansial (hudiyanto) 49 pok miskin dan terpinggirkan. dimensi 2: fleksibilitas pelayanan yang disesuaikan dengan lingkungan dan kenyataan hidup kelompok miskin. dimensi ini meliputi keragaman jenis pelayanan, kualitas pelayanan (kecepatan, transparansi, ketepatan), serta akses pada pelayanan non finansial. dimensi 3: pemanfaatan modal sosial dan modal politik (political and social capital) untuk membangun lembaga meliputi hubungan saling percaya dengan nasabah. dimensi 4: kepedulian terhadap nasabah, masyarakat sekitar dan pekerjanya. simpulan di tingkat akar rumput banyak kelompok yang belum tersentuh oleh dunia perbankan. mereka bukannya tidak mempunyai apa apa, melainkan mempunyai sesuatu yang bila di: (1) model lembaga keuangan mikro. kenyataan yang saat ini ada (the existing condition) di penajam paser utara (6.1.) menunjukkan pentingnya dicari suatu model kelembagaan keuangan mikro (lkm) yang pas. lkm yang ada cenderung belum bisa menjangkau kepentingan keluarga miskin; kalaupun menjangkau lembaga keuangan mikro sering menimbulkan persoalan lain dalam bentuk eksploitasi atas kesempitan si miskin. pada dasarnya model itu adalah model yang ”mudah (dijangkau, murah, dan ramah” yang selanjutnya dirumuskan sebagai berikut: (a) mudah menjangkau dan dijangkau kelompok miskin yaitu seberapa jauh lembaga keuangan yang dibentuk bisa mengadaptasikan secara penuh model pelayanannya dengan apa yang dimiliki dan diinginkan oleh penduduk miskin; (b) menghindari penggunaan indikator kinerja (finansial) yang bertentangan dengan kepentingan lkm yang pro orang miskin dengan menyusun indikator kinerja sosial (social performance indicator); (c) dimulai dari pembentukan kelompok yang genuine dalam masyarakat. oleh karena pada tingkat basis sistem komunalitas menjadi karakteristik utama, maka peningkatan kapasitas internal (kelompok) sepenuhnya harus mengimplementasikan semangat dan bentuk koperasi yaitu “dari, untuk, dan oleh” anggota untuk mengatasi masalah secara bersama. sistem pelayanan yang diperlukan pada tingkatan lkm adalah sistem yang bisa dirumuskan sebagai “mudah, murah, dan fleksibel” tanpamembatasi peruntukan. peruntukan bisa untuk keperluan produksi, distribusi, pemasaran, maupun konsumsi bahkan bagi kepentingan sosial. pada tingkatan basis (kelompok) kegiatan akan bervariasi sesuai dengan karakteristik daerah/kelompok, meliputi aktifitas penunjang produksi, distribusi, konsumsi, bahkan aktifitas yang sifatnya sosial yang memunculkan masalah pembiayaan. pada titik inilah kemudian dirasakan kebutuhan bentuk simpan pinjam, arisan, dan sebagainya sebagai cikal bakal dari lembaga keuangan mikro. memberikan tekanan pengan pengawasan pada diri sendiri (self controlling) lewat model tanggung bersama (tanggung renteng). penggunaan pelayanan semacam itu harus dilakukan melalui proses sosialisasi dan internaliasi yang panjang. oleh karena itu sekalipun modelnya baik namun dalam replikasi harus selalu dilakukan adaptasi. kalau tidak maka yang terjadi adalah resistensi di tingkat basis. (2) strategi pengembangan lkm. strategi pengembangan lembaga keuangan mikro dijalankan pada dua sisi yaitu: (a) strategi pengembangan lembaga keuangan mikro dari, oleh, dan untuk rakyat (banking with the poor) dengan menginisiasi lewat lembaga lembaga sosial kelembagaan yang masih genuine (asli) kegotongroyongannya. dalam kaitan ini pemerintah memberikan motivasi dan memfasilitasi pengembangan kelompok-kelompok masyarakat. peranan pemerintah bukan mendorong koperasi yang berbadan hukum yang (banyak yang) tidak berjiwa koperasi, melainkan justru mendampingi kelompok kelompok yang masih genuine. reedukasi tentang nilai nilai dasar koperasi menjadi amat relevan. (b) strategi inisiasi lembaga keuangan mikro dengan menggunakan dana dari pemerintah (banking for the poor) lewat pembentukan lkm lembaga yang kredibel di tingkat desa maupun yang kemudian dibuatkan jaringannya antardesa di tingkat kabupaten. strategi pembentukan lkm yang profesional sekaligus pro rakyat ini dijalankan karena pengucuran berbagi dana dari pemerintah selama ini dikesankan sebagai jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 11, nomor 1, april 2010: 38-50 50 “pemberian dari pemerintah, sehingga dana yang seharusnya bergulir cenderung tidak berlanjut. lkm yang dibentuk nantinya akan menampung berbagi dana dari pemerintah yang d dipereuntukkan bagi penduduk desa untuk dikelola secara profesional dan bertanggung jawab. rekomendasi. muhammad yunus lewat grameen bank telah memulai langkah yang awalnya sangat tidak popular dengan “ngopeni” dan “njimpiti” potensi kecil-kecil dalam masyarakat, yang karena banyaknya menjadi besar. modal sosial yang dimiliki oleh bangladesh dalam membangun bank untuk si miskin sebenarnya jauh tertinggal dibandingkan dengan indonesia, karena di negeri ini khususnya di yogyakarta, kelompok kelompok itu ada dan sudah berlangsung sejak lama. yang diperlukan hanyalah adanya kemauan untuk memulai. studi ini memberikan rekomendasi sebagai berikut: (1) melakukan penyusunan data dasar potensi modal sosial (kelompok kelompok sosial keagamaan yang yang masih belum tercemar/genuine yang ada pada tingkatan basis (kampung) sebagai basis bagi penerapan financial inclusion bagi perbankan syariah; (2) melakukan penyusunan potensi ekonomi rakyat di tingkat basis; (3) melakukan pemetaan potensi dan upaya membangun jaringan; (4) membentuk jaringan yang diformalkan dalam bentuk lembaga keuangan mikro (bank) khusus bagi kelompok yang lemah (dhuafa) dan yang secara sosial politik terlemahkan (mustadhafien). posisioning dinas koperasi. agenda itu pada akhirnya memerlukan reposisioning peran dari dinas perdagangan, koperasi dan pertanian yang memfokuskan pada pembinaan dan pengambangan koperasi formal kearah pemberdayaan kelompok kelompok paling miskin daftar pustaka cgap. 2004. focus on financial transparency: building the infrastucture for microfinance industry. september 2004. mubyarto. 2004. lembaga keuangan mikro di kulonprogo. yogyakarta: aditya media. o’brien, rory. 1998. an overview of methodological approach of participatory action research. smeru. 2001. studi kredit kecil di perkotaan kabupaten kulon progo, daerah istimewa yogyakarta. yunus, muhammad. 1999. banker to the poor, microlending and the battle against world poverty, public affair. zeller, manfred., martin greeley, cecile lapenu. 2003. measuring social performance indicator of microfinance institution. cgap. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 24 nomor 1, april 2023 article type: research paper does prudential capital reduce bank risktaking? empirical evidence from the indonesian banks industry agus salim* and suripto abstract: the implementation of macroprudential supervision, significantly tighter capital regulation in developing economies, has recently been debated, which focuses on reducing bank risk-taking and promoting financial stability in the banking sector. our study investigates the impact of prudential capital on commercial bank risk-taking in indonesia. we employed a gmm system approach to analyze bank and macro level data from 2004 to 2019. our result confirms that appropriate capital regulations for reducing bank risk-taking are heterogeneous. traditional capital ratios decrease bank risk-taking. however, the risk-based capital ratio shows an unexpected affirmative effect. implementing macroprudential policy instruments of capital buffer effectively manages bank risk, and so does the regulatory capital pressure variable. the results are intimate for guiding commercial banks' risk management and capital effectiveness. keywords: macroprudential policy; financial stability; bank risk-taking; prudential capital buffer; regulatory capital pressure jel classification: e58; g21; g28 introduction capitalization has been essential in mitigating bank risk since the commencement of a universal model, the 1988 basel i, 2004 basel ii, and 2010 basel iii accords. implementing basel iii required regulators to maintain the capitalizations of their commercial banks (abbas, ali, et al., 2021; jiang & zhang, 2017). generally, basel iii has three kinds of capital regulation: capital adequacy ratio, the risky asset of tier-one capital ratio, and tier-one standard equity ratio. it promotes that the most analyzed capitalization topics are around these three ratios. das & rout (2020) found an affirmative correlation involving bank risk activity and adequacy of capital. anginer et al. (2021), illueca et al. (2022), mateev et al. (2021), le et al. (2022), and son et al. (2022) show a positive correlation between equity ratio on the financial stability of commercial banks or adversely affects bank risk-taking. however, they generally utilized risk-based and non-risk-based capital requirements to examine how market capitalization affected bank risk-taking. they do not include macroprudential capital instruments in mitigating financial risk and promoting recently implemented stability. affiliation: department of development economics, faculty of economics and business, universitas ahmad dahlan, special region of yogyakarta, indonesia *correspondence: agus.salim@ep.uad.ac.id this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v24i1.17696 citation: salim, a., & suripto, s. (2023). does prudential capital reduce bank risk-taking? empirical evidence from the indonesian banks industry. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 24(1), 182197. article history received: 23 jan 2023 revised: 23 may 2023 accepted: 29 may 2023 https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?hl=en&user=njx_reyaaaaj https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?hl=en&user=nu5m20uaaaaj https://ep.uad.ac.id/ https://ep.uad.ac.id/ https://ep.uad.ac.id/ https://ep.uad.ac.id/ https://ep.uad.ac.id/ mailto:agus.salim@ep.uad.ac.id http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp http://dx.doi.org/10.18196/jesp.v24i1.17696 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v24i1.17696&domain=pdf salim & suripto does prudential capital reduce bank risk-taking? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 183 nowadays, macroprudential policy has an important position in the financial aspects of many countries (davis et al., 2022; de schryder & opitz, 2021; gaganis et al., 2020; igan et al., 2022). implementing macroprudential policy instruments is not a new regulation in the financial system. however, the adjustment of macroprudential policy instruments is intensive, notably in the light of the worldwide downturn of 2007–2008 (maatoug et al., 2019; noman et al., 2017; ovi et al., 2020; tongurai & vithessonthi, 2020; zhang et al., 2018). the period of the most implemented prudential policy is also the beginning year for the implementation of macroprudential policy in developing countries to mitigate and prevent future bank risk-taking, promoting financial stability. issues regarding implementing the macroprudential policy have emerged among the studies of scholars and policymakers (gaganis et al., 2020; igan et al., 2022). the majority of previous investigations emphasized the variability impact of time-varying policy and the implementation of macroprudential instruments (ćehajić & košak, 2022; davis et al., 2022; de schryder & opitz, 2021; ekananda, 2022; fabiani et al., 2022; gaganis et al., 2020; igan et al., 2022). in particular, ćehajić & košak (2022), fabiani et al. (2022), and de schryder & opitz (2021) show an inverse effect of prudential capital requirements on the credit supply of commercial banks. the impact analysis by ćehajić & košak (2022) studied on how macroprudential policy affects the accessibility of small and medium enterprises (smes) to banks’ financial intermediation. they use monthly panel data of firms’ levels from january 2009 to february 2011. the results revealed a negative correlation between capital requirement tightening and the financial flow to the smes. specifically, more tightening capital and macroprudential requirements, a decline of private sectors could access bank financing. with stricter access to financial intermediation, they conclude that tighter saving requirements produce more credit to small and medium enterprises (smes) in european countries. however, the loosening of capital rules shows an inverse effect. furthermore, they also analyzed the effect of liquidity tightening and loosening on financial intermediation. they reveal a negatively significant impact of liquidity loosening but an insignificant effect of liquidity tightening due to some activities for searching a huger yield by choosing a riskier investment. study on prudential capital requirements with a higher sample by gaganis et al. (2020). they investigated the variability effect of ten macroprudential instruments on bank-risk taking for 356 banks from 50 selected countries. the result shows an inverse relationship between macroprudential policy and bank risk-taking. it confirms that a tighter policy would lower the risk taken by commercial banks operations. overall, they conclude that implementing macroprudential instruments reduces bank risk-taking, boosting financial stability. however, both impactful studies by ćehajić & košak (2022) and gaganis et al. (2020) employed aggregate macroprudential policy indicators and did not provide different effects of each instrument implemented. in the disaggregate macroprudential instrument, the impact of capital control on smoothing credit booms was analyzed by fabiani et al. (2022). they employ quarterly panel data from the second quarter of 2005 to the second quarter of 2008 to analyze a salim & suripto does prudential capital reduce bank risk-taking? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 184 source of bank loans over the implementation of macroprudential policy in colombia. they found that an increase in the reserve requirements worsens credit supply, especially for non-profitable firms. furthermore, de schryder & opitz (2021) examine the effect of typical macroprudential on bank lending in 13 european countries using panel data from 1999 to 2018. they found that decreased reserve requirement loss reduces consumer credit to gdp and bank credit to gdp ratio in selected eu economies. igan et al. (2022) support de schryder & opitz (2021) study that tighter reserve requirements and regulations weaken bank risk-taking across 52 economies. these studies conclude that the policy regarding reserve requirements reduces bank risk-taking by eliminating nonprofitable financing. other disaggregate macroprudential indicators were applied by davis et al. (2022), who analyzed the effect of macroprudential policy on bank earnings. the result shows a inverse impact of macroprudential instruments on profitability for over 7250 global banks for over 57 emerging and 35 advanced economies. however, they focused on bank’s profitability rather than risk-taking indicators. the implementation of the countercyclical capital buffer (ccb) instrument has insignificantly negative for developing economies but significantly favorable effects on bank profitability in developed countries. it means that a sharp tightening of ccb reduces banks’ profit in emerging economies, but improves richer countries’ bank profitability. they also applied loan-to-value, and the results remained the same for both groups of economies. most of the previous studies implement the aggregate macroprudential policy indicators (ćehajić & košak, 2022; gaganis et al., 2020). other studies use the central bank reserve requirement to represent prudential capital requirements affecting bank financial intermediations (de schryder & opitz, 2021; fabiani et al., 2022; igan et al., 2022; johari et al., 2022). another complete implementation of disaggregate macroprudential indicators focused on implementing each instrument on banks profit earnings (davis et al., 2022). moreover, they employed a group of countries that may reveal different characteristics of each economy. other, so far as we are concerned, research on the evaluation of macroprudential policy instruments focused on capitalization, such as prudential buffer and regulatory capital pressure across several types with a single country to reduce bias caused by different scales of economies and to employ specific prudential capital instrument, are scarce. thus, our study tries to fill the gap by examining capitalization's effect, which focuses on the effectiveness of prudential capital buffer as one of the macroprudential policy instruments and regulatory capital pressure on bank risk-taking in strengthening financial stability. employing a single country observation, indonesia, that has different groups of banks and possible indices of domesticsystematically important banks (d-sib) appears, our study provides a discussion with completed real data for each sample bank from their report to financial service authority of indonesia. this study comprises the implementation impact of prudential and non-prudential capital on bank risk-taking of indonesian commercial banks. furthermore, we operate the system of generalized method of moments (gmm-sys) found by arellano & bond (1991) and blundell & bond (1998) in accordance to limit the potential endogeneity issues. in salim & suripto does prudential capital reduce bank risk-taking? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 185 various ways, our manuscript contributes to the body of knowledge on the capitalization of bank risk-taking. first, this study covers the period before 2007 and after 2009, using six different groups of commercial banks data for deeper analysis. to the best of our knowledge, we clearly ensure that our study is the first comprising different group of banks in the case of risk-taking analysis in indonesia. second, other studies use a non-riskadjusted capitalization ratio such as anginer et al. (2021), das & rout (2020), illueca et al. (2022), mateev et al. (2021), le et al. (2022), and son et al. (2022), while we employ both risk-adjusted capitalization ratios and prudential capital buffers to cover the implementation of macroprudential policy instruments. third, we also contribute to extending the capital buffer ratio by adding regulatory capital pressure to provide a deeper capitalization analysis for specific domestic-systemically important banks (d-sib) regulations. in the case of indonesia, with different bank types and systemically commercial banks, this study first implements the regulatory capital pressure as an additional macroprudential instrument to capture the d-sib phenomenon. finally, the results are essential for policymakers to observe the variability effect of different capitalizations and provide a new guideline for banking stability. the complete procedure of this study is divided into different sections: part two is devoted to methodology, the third chapter informs the analysis and discussion of the research result, and the last section concludes the overall manuscript. research method data this study used yearly panel data containing two types of data sets, bank scope level, and macroeconomic level, from 2004 to 2019. the original dataset was mainly extracted from the official site of the central bank of indonesia (bi), the financial service authority (fsa) of indonesia, and the indonesian central bureau of statistics. this study analyzed the risktaking of 18 conventional commercial banks in indonesia. generally, indonesia categorizes banks into six groups. we used the top three sizes of banks in each group. the size of banks used in this study is size data in 2019 as the last period of the reported bank to the fsa. table 1 indicators of variable measurement variable name measurement source bank risk-taking z-score compiled from financial service authority bank specific control 1. bank size (bas) the logarithm of total asset compiled from financial service authority 2. asset composition (asc) loan-to-asset ratio compiled from financial service authority 3. operational efficiency (ope) income to asset ratio compiled from financial service authority salim & suripto does prudential capital reduce bank risk-taking? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 186 table 1 indicators of variable measurement (cont’) variable name measurement source capitalization 1. traditional capital ratio (tcr) total equity/total asset compiled from financial service authority 2. risk-based capital ratio (rcr) capital adequacy ratio compiled from financial service authority 3. capital buffer ratio (cbr) the differential between rcr and minimum regulatory requirement compiled from financial service authority and bank indonesia 4. regulatory capital pressure (rcp) the differential between rcr and standard deviation of car and minimum regulatory requirement compiled from financial service authority and bank indonesia macroeconomic control 1. real gdp natural log of real gdp indonesian central bureau of statistics 2. inflation rate consumer price index indonesian central bureau of statistics 3. interest rate bank indonesia rate bank indonesia model specification we built an empirical model with a few associated variables to experimentally investigate capitalization's impact on risk-taking. the dependent variable is bank risk-taking, which uses the z-score as a proxy. we divide the independent variables into three groups. first, bank-specific operational factors include bank size, amenities and infrastructure, and operational performance. second, capitalization is the primary variable estimate of this study, which focuses on four types of capitalization, such as traditional capital ratio (tcr), risk-based capital ratio (rcr), and capital buffer ratio (cbr). we add the extended variable, the regulatory capital pressure (rcp), to provide a more specific analysis. the third is macroeconomic control variables, which include inflation rate and real gdp growth. thus, we employ a general regression model as follows: zit= α + βbscit+ ϑcapit+ ∅macit + εit (1) where i = 1 to n and t = 1 to t, n is the figure of individual banks, t is time, and α, β, ϑ, ∅ are approximated parameters. zit refers to the risk-taking for bank i at time t, which zscore as a proxy. bscit represents bank characteristics for bank i at time t. capit indicates the effect of types of capitalization. macit shows the effect of macroeconomic conditions, and εit represents the error term. variable measurement bank risk-taking we employ bank risk-taking as an explained variable by calculating z-score as a primary ratio. the essential idea of using z-score measurement is the capitalization and returns salim & suripto does prudential capital reduce bank risk-taking? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 187 variability of the bank. it reveals efficiency with minimum insolvency of a bank (adu, 2022; gaganis et al., 2020). we determine z-score as follows (illueca et al., 2022; moudud-ulhuq, 2019; son et al., 2022; toh & zhang, 2022): zit= roait+ eit/tait δ roait where zit represents the risk score of bank i at time t. roait represents the bank i's asset returns at time t. we calculate roa as follows: roait= earning before tax it total assetit x100% the edit/tait measures the equity to total assets ratio of bank i at time t. δ roait measures the standard deviation of roait . a higher z-score increases the probability and capitalization level, decreasing bank risk-taking. to represent a higher z-score as a more advanced bank risk-taking, we multiply the z-score by -1. bank specific control we calculate bank-specific supervision using bank size (bas), asset composition (asc), and operational efficiency (ope) as independent variables. the bank size variable represents that bigger bank could be willing to take on more risk due to their more significant market clout. furthermore, this study uses total assets to represent the bank size variable. to show the effect of asset composition, we substitute by using the loan-to-asset ratio. the use of the loan-to-asset ratio that it controls asset composition as a metric of bank lending behavior. finally, we employ the cost-to-income proportion as one of the characteristics peculiar to a certain bank to measure the bank's operational efficiency. operational costs and operating income are divided to determine the cost-to-income ratio. since we employed an inverse of z-score as dependent variable, we expect that bas, asc, and ope negatively affect the bank z-score. it means that, an increase in the size of banks, asset composition, and operational efficiency would decrease the risk taken by banks. capitalization capitalization strengthens the financial system while preventing systemic risk buildup by restricting financial institutions' excessive risk-taking (abbas, ali, et al., 2021; adu, 2022; agénor & silva, 2021; malovaná & ehrenbergerová, 2022). we examine four kinds of capitalization to provide a different effect of capitalization on bank risk-taking. first, the traditional capital ratio (tcr) is measured by total equity by total assets as follows: tcrit= total assetit total equity it x100% salim & suripto does prudential capital reduce bank risk-taking? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 188 second, risk-based capital ratio (rcr) as a weight of banks and minimum regulatory requirements is an essential strategy in bank risk-taking (broll et al., 2018; das & rout, 2020). we calculated rcr as follows: rcrit= tier 1 capital it +tier 2 capital it risk-weighted asset it x100% whereas i denotes the bank and t denotes the amount of time, equity capital comprises tier 1 capital, commonly referred to as required reserves, shares outstanding, intellectual properties, and verified earnings reserves. reserves retained earnings, and overall liability reserves that have not been audited make up tier 2 capital. third, the capital buffer ratio (cbr) indicates changes in banks' capitalization levels due to capital regulations (illueca et al., 2022; jiang et al., 2020; jiang & yuan, 2022; quyen et al., 2021). by influencing borrowers, we anticipate that a more excellent bcb ratio will decrease bank risk-taking and boost financial stability. according to this analysis, more stringent capital regulations, such as underwriting standards, sectoral capital buffers, and countercyclical availability of capital, will raise funding costs or restrain credit expansion (auer et al., 2022; bagntasarian & mamatzakis, 2019). this circumstance could lead to stricter credit requirements supported by borrowers and could lower loan demand. the capital buffer can also help banks' financial standing and reduce their risk-taking distribution by obtaining loans from customers who adhere to stricter restrictions. we add an extended variable, the regulatory capital pressure (rcp). because we use several commercial banks with varied capital structures as a sample, we include numerous institutions in the list of domestic-systemically important banks (d-sib). we introduce regulatory capital pressure (rcp) as an independent variable to match the bank macroprudential policy instrument. we determine rcp as the difference between the minimum regulatory norm for commercial banks, including d-sib and other banks, and the capital adequacy ratio (car) and standard deviation of car. rcp is calculated as follows for bank i at time t (zhang et al., 2018): rcpit= carit δcari 8% for other banks; rcpit= carit δcari (9% to 10.5%) for d-sib. furthermore, there is a shortage of research on the connection between capitalization (capital buffer ratio and regulatory capital pressure) and bank risk-taking. according to the operational information of each capitalization variable, we expect that tcr, rcr, cbr, and rcp negatively affect z-score. it presents that tightening capital requirements such as traditional capital ratio, risk-based capital ratio, capital buffer ratio, and regulatory capital pressure would reduce bank risk-taking. macroeconomic control this analysis uses the pace of indonesian gdp growth and the rate of inflation macroeconomic control variables. gdp denotes a variation in economic activity during the salim & suripto does prudential capital reduce bank risk-taking? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 189 business cycle, which most likely influences the performance of a country's financial institutions (abbas, ali, et al., 2021; abbas, masood, et al., 2021; anginer et al., 2021; banai et al., 2022; conti et al., 2022; ginting & widyawati, 2022; zhang et al., 2018). the consumer price index will be utilized as a stand-in for the inflation rate in this study. the actual economy and financial stability of a nation are both impacted by inflation since it has an inverse relationship with both (auer et al., 2022; mateev et al., 2022; ongena et al., 2022). finally, we also put interest rate by employing the bank indonesia rate to analyze the effect of the rate of return. we expect a tighter interest rate would reduce bank risk-taking (adão et al., 2022; bongiovanni et al., 2021). gdp growth, consumer pricing information, and interest rate are taken from the official website of the indonesian central bureau of statistics and bank indonesia. we generally expect a positive effect of inflation and a negative effect of gdp and interest rates. it confirms that an increase in the scale of the economy and interest rate and a decrease in the inflation rate would reduce bank risk-taking. estimation strategy we use a panel data simulation to study the impact of capitalization on bank risk-taking because it incorporates the nature of bank risk-taking and the potential endogeneity issue across variable estimates. moudud-ul-huq (2019) demonstrates that the static model based on the random and fixed effect model has a significant econometric imbalance and contradictory conclusions since there is an association between lag changes in the dependent variable. therefore, in a dynamic situation, we employ a generalized method of moments (gmm) that regulates the endogeneity of the lag-dependent variable. gmm lowers omitted bias concerns, regulates unaccounted heterogeneity issues, and manages panel measurement error problems (abbas, masood, et al., 2021; moudud-ul-huq, 2019; son et al., 2022). notably, our research uses a system-gmm estimator propounded by arellano and bond (1991) and blundell and bond (1998) to develop accurate estimators. when there is a lack of time sequence (t) and a large cross-section (n), the system-gmm is the best estimator, according to noman et al. (2017). additionally, system-gmm has improved estimation capabilities to estimate the explanatory variable coefficients. the transformed econometric model by the system-gmm in the following equation: zit= α + βbscit + ϑcapit+ ∅macit + γt + γi +εit (2) where γ t reflects the time effect, which has i = 1 to t and γ i is the bank effect, which has t = 1 to n, and α, β, ϑ, ∅ are estimated parameters. finally, εit is an error term of model estimates. result and discussion issues on the connection between bank capitalization and risk-taking emerge every period, primarily when the business cycle occurs remarkably. most studies estimate the salim & suripto does prudential capital reduce bank risk-taking? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 190 determinants of bank risk-taking, which focus on asset measurements such as the total or size and the adequacy effect (andries et al., 2020; broll et al., 2018; das & rout, 2020; kosenko & michelson, 2022; le et al., 2022; mateev et al., 2021; noman et al., 2017). it merely shows that the studies focused on the effect of prudential capital are scarce. thus, we dedicate our study to applying bank capital buffer and regulatory capital pressure to capture new prudential regulations implemented recently. table 2 data summary statistics variable obs. mean std. dev. min max z 288 -12.3043 22.09202 -293.845 -0.08965 bas 288 17.93833 1.471917 13.05979 21.01823 asc 288 0.557846 0.123323 0.270976 0.818855 ope 288 3.151325 2.769243 0.21924 19.20034 tcr 288 0.116744 0.046779 -0.00073 0.31769 rcr 288 0.405991 0.933963 0.091624 10.89108 cbr 288 0.325991 0.933963 0.011624 10.81108 rcp 288 0.036556 0.820682 -3.2733 7.526148 gdp 288 5.525 0.572429 4.63 6.49 inf 288 6.135625 3.719024 2.72 17.11 int 288 7.1675 2.067774 4.25 12.75 table 3 matrix correlation z bas asc ope tcr rcr cbr rcp gdp inf int z 1 bas 0.2409 1 asc 0.0436 0.1475 1 ope 0.0047 -0.239 0.0917 1 tcr 0.4177 0.0231 0.2466 0.0232 1 rcr 0.2295 0.1454 0.0028 0.1572 0.0471 1 cbr 0.1878 0.1502 0.0001 0.1392 0.1229 0.9872 1 rcp 0.1285 0.0533 0.0746 0.0595 0.2134 0.4696 0.4533 1 gdp 0.0945 0.1345 0.1818 0.0592 0.1244 0.0228 -0.025 -0.07 1 inf 0.1442 0.3031 0.1571 0.1524 -0.053 0.1143 -0.113 0.1386 0.3288 1 int 0.1808 0.3739 0.1284 0.1557 0.0412 0.1122 0.1064 0.1518 0.2327 0.8737 1 we begin our discussion based on the result of the statistic description in table 2. we apply 288 observations based on 18 banks as cross-sections and 16 years of each bank. over the sample period, bank size varies from the bank with higher and lower assets. banks with maximum size are primarily categorized as state-owned commercial banks. averagely, the capital buffer ratio of commercial banks is 33 percent, implying that the proportion of capital buffer was at a well-managed level. the minimum point is 1.16 salim & suripto does prudential capital reduce bank risk-taking? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 191 percent, mainly at the beginning of the sample in 2004, and it increased to the maximum in 2019. the regulatory capital pressure is 3.7 percent, indicating that most banks are included in domestic-systemically important banks (d-sib). we also examine the correlation coefficient of each variable estimate. the coefficient correlation analysis is presented in table 3. the result above the critical value (α=0.01, 0.05, and 0.1) confirms the presence of correlation (abbas, ali, et al., 2021; abbas, masood, et al., 2021; anginer et al., 2021; zhang et al., 2018). our analysis was confirmed through the number of correlation coefficients above the critical value. the result reveals that traditional capital and risk-based capital ratio are statistically significant. we confirm the result of abbas, ali, et al. (2021) and defung & yudaruddin (2022). the capital prudential buffer variables, such as capital buffer and regulatory capital pressure, correlate similarly with bank risk-taking (abbas, ali, et al., 2021). table 4 estimation result of system generalized method of moment (sys-gmm) model 1 model 2 model 3 model 4 model (5) c 1.4800 (2.4795) -1.5418 (2.4027) -1.4047* (2.4760) -0.7943 (3.5208) -0.5342 (2.2133) bank specific control bas -0.1882* (0.0992) -0.1700* (0.1027) -0.2183* (0.1056) -0.2877** (0.1393) -0.1280 (0.9159) asc 0.1729 (1.0216) -1.9391 (1.2635) -1.2590 (0.9290) -2.4051 (1.7168) 0.0070 (0.8776) ope -0.0742 (0.05697) -0.0076 (0.0823) -0.0277 (0.1060) -0.1454 (0.1522) 0. 0861* (0. 0444) capitalization tcr -16.4624*** (2.4748) -8.5645 *** (2.4822) rcr 0.7318*** (0.2768) 3.1864* (2.3745) cbr -0.6743*** (0.1435) -1.9982*** (1.8450) rcp -0.4294*** (0.1122) -0.3487** (0.0388) macroeconomic control gdp 0.0560 (0.7312) 1.3398** (0.6375) 0.9427* (0.6458) 1.1699* (0.7784) 0.1690 (0.7091) inf -0.0610** (0.0253) -0.0216 (0.0370) -0.0188 (0.0395) -0.0512** (0.0258) -0.0617*** (0.0220) int 0.0763* (0.0577) 0.1302** (0.0548) 0.0808* (0.0530) 0.1233** (0.0588) 0.0881* (0.0558) obs. 234 234 234 234 234 hansen j 0.457 0.595 0.573 0.630 0.415 ar(2) 0.097** 0.014* 0.076** 0.033* 0.171*** the standard deviation is shown in brackets (), and the significance levels at 1%, 5%, and 10% are indicated by *, **, and ***, respectfully (source: author's computation). salim & suripto does prudential capital reduce bank risk-taking? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 192 the importance of the hansen j-test for the correctness of the overidentifying restriction and endogeneity problem is provided by using the gmm system estimate. table 4, column models 1 through 5 show that the hansen j-test outcome is not statistically significant. the test's lack of significance guarantees that the incorporation of instrumental variables for managing the endogeneity problem is legitimate with the overidentifying constraint in place. we conclude that there is no link between the instruments and the standard errors, and we address the endogeneity issue within those findings from our approach. table 4 shows the causality investigation result of bank risk-taking determinants. we provide five models due to the cross variability of capitalization effects. in the separated below side, we provide the number of observations, the result of the hansen test for overidentification restriction, and the arellano-bond test for ar(2) in the first differences. the probability values of the hansen test of all models are high, which means that our used instruments are valid. the overall model (model 5) has no autocorrelation issue since we cannot reject our null hypothesis of no serial correlation at 1 percent, while other models cannot reject 5 and 10 percent. since we divide the models according to the different effects of a single capitalization, we also provide three variable groups for each model. the first group is banking-specific control variables. we employ three variables of bank-specific control such as banks size, asset composition, and operational efficiency. the result shows that bank size has a significant and inverse effect in models 1 to 4. it indicates that the bigger asset of banks can effectively decrease bank risk-taking. our finding supports the study of abbas, masood, et al. (2021), who mentioned that the size of banks could decrease non-potential credit of banks, decreasing risk-taking. however, other bank-specific control variables such as asset composition and operational efficiency are supposed to have an insignificant effect on ban risk-taking. it merely shows that the composition of assets and cost of operation do not directly impact on the risk of a bank. however, it would be following some channels to support bank financial stability. model 1 shows the traditional capital ratio's negative and empirically significant effect on bank risk-taking. equity-to-total asset ratio indicates the use of the company's capital in financing the company's assets. it means that an increase in the capital in the total equity would decrease the risk banks have taken while the total asset and other factors remain constant (abbas, masood, et al., 2021; conti et al., 2022; le et al., 2022). we refuse the previous result of abbas, masood, et al. (2021). however, our findings agree with the results of das & rout (2020), who suggest that an increase in equity would improve the mean cost of capital. however, a rise in the lending rate simultaneously would decrease bank risk-taking. besides, le et al. (2022) explain that increasing the bank's portfolio would decrease bank risk-taking. the coefficient estimates of the traditional capital ratio of model 1 were confirmed by model 5, with overall capitalization variables analyzed. the risk-based return rate on capital has a favorable and statistically significant effect. interestingly, most previous studies suggested that increased capital adequacy would decrease bank risk-taking. however, our estimates indicate that increasing the risk-based capital requirement would enhance banks’ risk. this result is different explains with the salim & suripto does prudential capital reduce bank risk-taking? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 193 previous research by son et al. (2022). they explain that with an increase in the bank capital requirements for the risk-weighted asset, the bank would be more stable due to the moral hazard hypothesis, decreasing bank risk-taking. however, we support the finding of das & rout (2020), who suggested the reason behind the affirmative correlation between the risk-weighted capital ratio and bank risk-taking due to the “too big to fail attitude” and other errors in screening and monitoring. furthermore, following the intuition of agénor & silva (2021), a tighter risk-weighted capital ratio passed through its optimal point (whose marginal effect is zero), and the return weakens as the number of loans decreases. the capital buffer ratio (cbr) shows tighter regulation, additional capital requirements for commercial banks, and reduced bank risk-taking (abbas, ali, et al., 2021; moudud-ulhuq, 2019). model 3 in table 4 reveals a single capitalization variable effect on bank risktaking. the calculated correlation of cbr is contrary and quantitatively relevant at a 1 percent confidence ratio. the coefficient of 0.6743means a-1% rise in the required capital buffer by the central bank, and the risk-taking by commercial banks would decrease by around 67.43 percent. this result corroborates the earlier research of zhang et al. (2018), abbas, masood, et al. (2021), illueca et al. (2022) in the case of the pre-adoption period of spanish private banks, jiang & zhang (2017) in the case of upper tail risk for chinese banks. following the transmission from auer et al. (2022), banks are more likely to charge higher interest rates in response to a rise in the capital buffer proportion. it would decrease the lending rate, especially the non-performing intermediation. therefore, the decrease in non-performing intermediation reduces bank risk-taking. model 4 presents a single capitalization effect of regulatory capital pressure on bank risktaking. the coefficient of regulatory capital pressure is also negative (0.4294) and statistically significant at a one percent confidence level. an increase in regulatory capital pressure weakens bank risk-taking. the impact of rcp of simultaneous capitalization effect in model 5 confirms it. zhang et al. (2018) reveal the transmission of capital pressure affecting the bank's risk-taking through the central bank reserve requirement channel. they explain that a higher regulatory capital pressure is due to higher reserve requirements, decreasing bank risk-taking. finally, macroeconomic control variables show various effects on bank risk-taking. gdp provides a positive and significant effect in model 2, model 3, and model 4. we present this unexpected effect due to the procyclicality of financial institutions. banks tend to lend more when paying attention to a positive signal and abide by the precautionary principle. therefore, the booms of credit would increase the risk in financial institutions. the inflation rate negatively affects bank risk-taking, especially in model 1, model, 4, and model 5. our result supports the study of son et al. (2022). the last macroeconomic control is the interest rate. the result presents an affirmative and significant effect of interest rates on bank risk-taking. overall, the variability of macroeconomic variables affects bank risk-taking in indonesia. salim & suripto does prudential capital reduce bank risk-taking? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 194 conclusion governments all across the globe are being compelled to improve their financial soundness as a consequence of the worldwide turmoil. the banking industry needs more stringent capital regulations to protect the financial system from disasters. therefore, capitalization-based tools are a part of macroprudential policy and are used to raise the emergency preparedness signal. we present an analysis of capitalization's impact on bank risk-taking in the case of indonesian commercial banks. our finding shows that single and overall cross-capitalization variables are consistent. the variable of the traditional capital ratio effectively weakens bank risk-taking. however, the risk-based capital ratio is inverse to our expected sign, which is an improvement in the risk-based capital ratio that improves bank risk-taking. the macroprudential instruments for the capitalization aspect, the capital buffer ratio for commercial banks, reduces the risk probability. furthermore, our extended prudential capital buffer and regulatory capital pressure for domestic-systemically important banks (d-sib) confirm the decrease in bank risk-taking. therefore, we suggest maintaining the performance of macroprudential capital instruments for further analysis and policy decision-making. this study is restricted to a review of the impact of prudential and non-prudential capital buffers on the indonesian banking sector's financial stability. our study is indeed confined to the bank industry in measuring the financial stability variable. it does not yet employ a number of materials to demonstrate overall financial stability across indonesia's numerous financial institutions. additionally, the cross-sectional data set consists of 18 commercial banks, each representing a different indonesian bank group, and the time series data utilized is restricted to pre-pandemic datasets. therefore, future studies may create a more thorough measure of financial stability that takes into account financial stability overall, the fluctuations of financial stability throughout an outbreak, and the number of institutions that would be more suitable to reflect a representative of all indonesian commercial banks. references abbas, f., ali, s., moudud-ul-huq, s., & naveed, m. 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objectives of this research are to analyze the influence of pdrb, the number of siup and industries towards the advertisement tax revenues in district of magelang. the data used in this research are monthly-secondary data which is taken from the data in 2010:m082014:m12. analysis model used in this research is regression model vecm using the assistance of software eviews 7.2. vecm model is chosen in this research since it is hoped to be able to explain behavioral research variables in the long-term. moreover, variable of pdrb and the number of siup have influence towards the advertisement tax revenues in district of magelang. pdrb and the number of siup have stability connection or in balance and the same movement in long-term. in other words, they, in any short-term period, are likely to adjust to each other in order to achieve long-term equilibrium. at the same time, the number of industries has no any influences towards the advertisement tax revenues because not all industries located in the district of magelang put up the advertisement to promote goods or services. keywords: advertisement tax, industry, vecm jel classification: e62, l50, c32 abstrak: tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk menganalisis pengaruh pdrb, jumlah siup dan industri terhadap pendapatan pajak iklan di kabupaten magelang. data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data sekunder bulanan yang diambil dari data tahun 2010: m082014: m12. model analisis yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah model regresi vecm dengan menggunakan bantuan perangkat lunak eviews 7.2. model vecm dipilih dalam penelitian ini karena diharapkan dapat menjelaskan variabel penelitian perilaku dalam jangka panjang. selain itu, variabel pdrb dan jumlah siup berpengaruh terhadap pendapatan pajak iklan di kabupaten magelang. pdrb dan jumlah siup memiliki hubungan stabilitas atau seimbang dan pergerakan yang sama dalam jangka panjang. dengan kata lain, mereka, dalam periode jangka pendek, cenderung menyesuaikan diri satu sama lain untuk mencapai ekuilibrium jangka panjang. pada saat bersamaan, jumlah industri tidak berpengaruh terhadap pendapatan pajak iklan karena tidak semua industri yang berada di kabupaten magelang memasang iklan untuk mempromosikan barang atau jasa. kata kunci: advertisement tax, industry, vecm klasifikasi jel: e62, l50, c32 194 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016: 194-203 pendahuluan pembangunan di indonesia diarahkan untuk mewujudkan masyarakat yang adil dan makmur. tujuan pembangunan ekonomi nasional adalah untuk mencapai pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tinggi dengan cara memanfaatkan potensi dan sumber daya yang ada. akan tetapi pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tinggi belum tentu mencerminkan meningkatnya kesejahteraan semua penduduk. tujuan utama pembangunan ekonomi daerah adalah mencapai pertumbuhan yang setinggitingginya, selain itu juga berupaya menghapus atau mengurangi tingkat kemiskinan, meningkatkan pemerataan pendapatan, dan mengurangi tingkat pengangguran dengan cara menciptakan kesempatan kerja atau perluasan lapangan kerja bagi penduduk, agar setiap penduduk berkesempatan untuk menyejahterakan kehidupannya (todaro dan smith, 2004). pembangunan dibidang ekonomi bertujuan untuk meningkatkan taraf hidup masyarakat, tingkat kemakmuran semakin tinggi, ketimpangan pendapatan semakin berkurang, kesempatan kerja semakin terbuka dan juga kualitas sumber daya manusia semakin membaik. untuk mengetahui seberapa jauh keberhasilan pembangunan dibidang ekonomi yang telah dilaksanakan maka diperlukan adanya alat yang dapat membantu memberikan gambaran tingkat keberhasilan pembangunan dibidang ekonomi tersebut. penyelenggaraan otonomi daerah berimplikasi pada pengelolaan keuangan dengan meningkatkan pendapatan asli daerahnya. pad sendiri terbentuk dari elemen pajak dan retribusi daerah, laba bumd dan lain – lain pendapatan yang sah. pajak yang merupakan pungutan wajib, biasanya berupa uang yang harus dibayar oleh penduduk sebagai sumbangan wajib kepada negara atau pemerintah sehubungan dengan pendapatan, pemilikan, jual beli barang, dsb. terdapat satu jenis pajak yang menarik dari semua pajak yang dikelola oleh pemerintah kabupaten magelang, yaitu pajak reklame. pajak reklame adalah pajak atas penyelenggaraan reklame. reklame adalah benda, alat, pembuatan, dan atau media yang bentuk dan corak ragamnya dirancang untuk tujuan komersial memperkenalkan, menganjurkan, mempromosikan, atau untuk menarik perhatian umum terhadap barang, jasa, orang atau badan, yang dapat dilihat, dibaca dan / atau dinikmati oleh umum. pajak reklame dapat dikategorikan sebagai pajak daerah yang bersifat obyektif. penerimaan pendapatan asli daerah, pajak daerah dan pajak reklame kabupaten magelang pada periode tahun anggaran 2010 – 2014, diketahui bahwa nilai dari pendapatan asli daerah (pad) lebih banyak mengalami peningkatan. hal tersebut tidak jauh berbeda jika dibandingkan dengan pertumbuhan pajak daerah yang mengalami peningkatan yang cukup signifikan 4 tahun terakhir. sementara perkembangan pajak reklame terhadap pendapatan asli daerah dan pajak daerah pada tahun 2013 pajak reklame mengalami penurunan, namun realisasi penerimaan pendapatan asli daerah dan pajak daerah mangalami peningkatan. hal ini membuktikan bahwa pajak reklame bukan pajak unggulan di kabupaten magelang. tetapi cukup menarik untuk diteliti, melihat kenyataan di lapangan banyak reklame di temukan di tempat-tempat umum maupun di ruas jalan. berdasarkan latar belakang di atas maka peneliti tertarik untuk mengadakan penelitian lebih lanjut, yang dituangkan dalam bentuk penelitian dengan judul “ analisis faktor–faktor yang mempengaruhi penerimaan pajak reklame kabupaten magelang periode 2010:m08 – 2014:m12. tujuan yang ingin dicapai dengan penelitian ini adalah: 1. untuk mengetahui interaksi dan hubungan jangka panjang pdrb terhadap penerimaan pajak reklame kabupaten magelang. analisis penerimaan pajak reklame… (lisa dwi mardiana, nano prawoto) 195 2. untuk mengetahui interaksi dan hubungan jangka panjang jumlah siup terhadap penerimaan pajak reklame kabupaten magelang. 3. untuk mengetahui interaksi dan hubungan jangka panjang jumlah indusri terhadap penerimaan pajak reklame kabupaten magelang. 4. untuk mengetahui interaksi dan hubungan jangka panjang pdrb, jumlah siup, dan jumlah industri terhadap penerimaan pajak reklame kabupaten magelang. secara skema kerangka pemikiran dapat digambarkan sebagai berikut: gambar 1. kerangka pemikiran penelitian metode penelitian pendekatan yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah pendekatan kuantitatif dan data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder. data sekunder didapatkan dari instansi terkait seperti dinas pendapatan pengelolaan keuangan dan asset daerah (dppkad), badan penanaman modal dan pelayanan perizinan terpadu (bpmppt) serta bps kabupaten magelang. variabel dependen yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah penerimaan pajak reklame kabupaten magelang sedangkan variabel independen yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah pdrb kabupaten magelang, jumlah surat izin usaha perdagangan (siup) kabupaten magelang, dan industri di kabupaten magelang. metode analisis yang digunakan adalah vector auto regressive (var)/ vector error correction model (vecm). proses analisis vecm dilakukan melalui beberapa tahap yaitu dengan uji stasioneritas, uji penentuan lag, uji kointegrasi, uji kausalitas granger, uji impulse response function, dan uji forecast error variance decomposition. hasil dan pembahasan uji stasioneritas data pengujian dilakukan dengan menggunakan augmented dickey fuller (adf) dan philips perron (pp) dimana standar yang digunakan adalah nilai kritis (critical value). apabila nilai mutlak t-statistic lebih besar nilai kritis mckinnon. hasil pengujian adf dan pp sebagai berikut: tabel 1. hasil uji stasioneritas variabel level first differrence second difference adf pp adf pp adf pp rklm -0,445191 -0,899320 -2,372565 -3,680349 -11,48567 -14,79478 pdrb -2,907447 -2,074998 -4,654470 -4,685661 -11,60693 -19,38202 siup -6,195749 -6,540368 -16,35138 -24,06827 -6,870665 -56,73894 ind -0,594043 -0,416543 -7,548540 -7,747886 -8,306624 -12,0000 sumber: estimasi e-views 7.2 (diolah) tabel 1 menunjukkan bahwa keempat variabel (penerimaan pajak reklame, pdrb, jumlah siup, dan jumlah industri) tidak stasioner pada tingkat level dan first difference. pada tingkat second difference keempat variabel dinyatakan stasioner karena nilai t-statistic lebih besar dari nilai critical value mckinnon sebesar 5 persen yaitu -2,918778. pdrb (x1) siup (x2) jumlah industri (x3) penerimaan pajak reklame (y) 196 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016: 194-202 uji penentuan lag optimal lag optimal digunakan untuk mengatasi masalah autokorelasi dalam uji var dan vecm. estimasi var sangat peka terhadap panjang lag yang digunakan. penetapan lag optimal berdasarkan pada nilai likelihood ratio test (lr), final prediction error (fpe), akaike information criteria (aic), schwarz information criterion (sc) dan hannan quinn (hq). penentuan lag optimal dapat dilihat pada tabel berikut ini: tabel 2: hasil penentuan lag optimal lag logl lr fpe aic sc hq 0 -99.05893 na 0.001038 4.480823 4.639835 4.540390 1 182.9390 502.6919* 9.88e-09* -7.084304* -6.289242* -6.786469* 2 198.5948 25.18544 1.02e-08 -7.069339 -5.638228 -6.533237 3 210.5154 17.10347 1.27e-08 -6.891974 -4.824814 -6.117603 4 222.3228 14.88755 1.66e-08 -6.709686 -4.006477 -5.697047 5 232.8084 11.39743 2.44e-08 -6.469931 -3.130673 -5.219025 6 258.2192 23.20112 2.04e-08 -6.879094 -2.903787 -5.389920 7 271.0922 9.514861 3.39e-08 -6.743139 -2.131783 -5.015698 * indicates lag order selected by the criterion sumber: eviews 7.2 (diolah) tabel 2 menunjukkan bahwa pada nilai lr, fpe, aic, sc, dan hq mereferensikan lag 1 sebagai lag optimal. pemilihan lag 1 sebagai lag optimal karena berdasarkan hasil eviews, semua tanda bintang sejajar berada pada lag 1. uji kointegrasi uji kointegrasi digunakan untuk mengindikasikan kemungkinan adanya hubungan keseimbangan jangka panjang antara variabel-variabel dalam penelitian ini. hasil uji kointegrasi dapat dilihat dalam tabel berikut ini: tabel 3. hasil uji kointegrasi unrestricted cointegration rank test (trace) hypothesized trace 0.05 no. of ce(s) eigenvalue statistic critical value prob.** none * 0.614252 79.58784 47.85613 0.0000 at most 1* 0.403868 34.81694 29.79707 0.0121 at most 2 0.191180 10.50419 15.49471 0.2439 at most 3 0.011251 0.531781 3.841466 0.4659 trace test indicates 2 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level **mackinnon-haug-michelis (1999) p-values analisis penerimaan pajak reklame… (lisa dwi mardiana, nano prawoto) 197 sumber: eviews 7.2 (diolah) tabel 3 dapat dilihat bahwa nilai trace statistic lebih besar critical value (nilai none dan at most 1) begitu juga dengan nilai max-eigen statistic lebih besar critical value sehingga hasil penelitian ini terjadi adanya keseimbangan jangka panjang sehingga model penelitian yang digunakan adalah vector error correction model (vecm). berdasarkan analisis ekonometrik di atas dapat dilihat bahwa di antara keempat variabel dalam penelitian ini, terdapat minimal satu kointegrasi pada tingkat signifikansi 5%. dengan demikian, dari hasil uji kointegrasi mengindikasikan bahwa diantara pajak reklame, pdrb, jumlah siup dan industri memiliki hubungan stabilitas/ keseimbangan dan kesamaan pergerakan dalam jangka panjang. dengan kalimat lain, dalam setiap periode jangka pendek, seluruh variabel cenderung menyesuaikan, untuk mencapai ekuilibrium jangka panjangnya. uji kasualitas granger uji kausalitas granger digunakan untuk mengetahui apakah variabel-variabel dalam penelitian mempunyai hubungan satu arah saja ataukah dua arah. hasil pengujian kausalitas granger dapat dilihat pada tabel berikut ini: tabel 4. hasil uji kasualitas granger null hypothesis: obs f-statistic prob. ln_pdrb does not granger cause ln_rklm 52 0.33542 0.5651 ln_rklm does not granger cause ln_pdrb 5.78835 0.0200 siup does not granger cause ln_rklm 52 0.03386 0.8548 ln_rklm does not granger cause siup 6.92499 0.0113 ind does not granger cause ln_rklm 52 0.00184 0.9660 ln_rklm does not granger cause ind 1.13636 0.2916 sumber: eviews 7.2 (diolah) nilai probabilitas yang terdapat dalam penelitian kausalitas granger perlu diperhatikan. jika nilai probabilitas lebih besar 0,05 maka disimpulkan tidak terjadi kausalitas antar variabel. unrestricted cointegration rank test (maximum eigenvalue) hypothesized max-eigen 0.05 no. of ce(s) eigenvalue statistic critical value prob.** none * 0.614252 44.77089 27.58434 0.0001 at most 1 * 0.403868 24.31275 21.13162 0.0172 at most 2 0.191180 9.972413 14.26460 0.2138 at most 3 0.011251 0.531781 3.841466 0.4659 max-eigenvalue test indicates 2 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level * denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level **mackinnon-haug-michelis (1999) p-values 198 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016: 194-202 hipotesis yang digunakan: h0 :variabel dependen tidak secara signifikan dipengaruhi oleh variabel independen. h1 :variabel dependen secara signifikan dipengaruhi oleh variabel independen. dari tabel di atas dapat dilihat bahwa variabel rklm secara statistik tidak signifikan mempengaruhi pdrb dengan nilai prob sebesar (0,5651) sehingga menerima hipotesi nol. sedangkan pdrb secara statistik signifikan mempengaruhi rklm (0,0200) sehingga menolak hipotesis nol. dengan demikian, disimpulkan bahwa terjadi kausalitas searah antara variabel rklm dan pdrb yaitu hanya pdrb yang secara statistik signifikan mempengaruhi rklm dan tidak berlaku sebaliknya. variabel rklm secara statistik tidak signifikan mempengaruhi siup dengan nilai prob sebesar (0,8548) sehingga menerima hipotesis nol. sedangkan siup secara statistik signifikan mempengaruhi rklm (0,0113) sehingga menolak hipotesis nol. dengan demikian, disimpulkan bahwa terjadi kausalitas searah antara variabel rklm dan siup yaitu hanya siup yang secara statistik mempengaruhi rklm dan tidak berlaku sebaliknya. variabel rklm secara statistik tidak signifikan mempengaruhi ind dan begitu juga sebaliknya variabel ind secara statistik tidak signifikan mempengaruhi rklm yang dibuktikan dengan nilai prob masing-masing lebih besar dari 0,05 yaitu 0,9660 dan 0,2916 (hasil keduanya adalah menerima hipotesis nol). sehingga dapat disimpulkan bahwa tidak terjadi kausalitas apapun untuk kedua variabel rklm dan ind. uji impulse responce fuction (irf) impulse responce function (irf) digunakan untuk menggambarkan tingkat laju shock dari variabel yang digunakan dalam penelitian. perilaku dinamis dari model vecm dapat dilihat melalui respon dari setiap variabel terhadap shock dari variabel tersebut maupun terhadap variabel endogen lainnya. hasil dari impulse response function (irf) dapat dilihat pada gambar berikut ini: gambar 2. respon penerimaan pajak reklame terhadap pdrb sumber: eviews 7.2 (diolah) pada gambar 2 dapat dilihat bahwa penerimaan pajak reklame secara umum dapat merespon shock dari pdrb. pada periode pertama penerimaan pajak reklame belum dapat merespon shock dari pdrb. kemudian pada periode kedua, penerimaan pajak reklame mulai merespon shock dari pdrb secara positif. peningkatan terjadi hingga periode keempat. pada periode kelima hingga periode kedelapan respon penerimaan pajak reklame terhadap shock pdrb mengalami stagnan dan mulai periode selanjutnya mengalami peningkatan kembali. -.06 -.04 -.02 .00 .02 .04 .06 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 res pons e of ln_rklm to ln_rklm -.06 -.04 -.02 .00 .02 .04 .06 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 res pons e of ln_rklm to ln_pdrb -.06 -.04 -.02 .00 .02 .04 .06 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 res pons e of ln_rklm to siup -.06 -.04 -.02 .00 .02 .04 .06 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 res pons e of ln_rklm to ind -.002 -.001 .000 .001 .002 .003 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 res pons e of ln_pdrb to ln_rklm -.002 -.001 .000 .001 .002 .003 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 res pons e of ln_pdrb to ln_pdrb -.002 -.001 .000 .001 .002 .003 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 res pons e of ln_pdrb to siup -.002 -.001 .000 .001 .002 .003 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 res pons e of ln_pdrb to ind -4 0 4 8 12 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 res pons e of siup to ln_rklm -4 0 4 8 12 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 res pons e of siup to ln_pdrb -4 0 4 8 12 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 res pons e of siup to siup -4 0 4 8 12 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 res pons e of siup to ind -.2 -.1 .0 .1 .2 .3 .4 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 res pons e of ind to ln_rklm -.2 -.1 .0 .1 .2 .3 .4 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 res pons e of ind to ln_pdrb -.2 -.1 .0 .1 .2 .3 .4 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 res pons e of ind to siup -.2 -.1 .0 .1 .2 .3 .4 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 res pons e of ind to ind response to cholesky one s.d. innov ations analisis penerimaan pajak reklame… (lisa dwi mardiana, nano prawoto) 199 gambar 3. respon penerimaan pajak reklame terhadap siup sumber: eviews 7.2 (diolah) pada gambar 3 dapat dilihat bahwa penerimaan pajak reklame secara umum dapat merespon shock dari siup. pada periode pertama penerimaan pajak reklame belum dapat merespon shock dari siup. kemudian pada periode kedua, penerimaan pajak reklame mulai merespon shock dari siup secara positif. gambar 4. respon penerimaan pajak reklame terhadap industri sumber: eviews 7.2 (diolah) pada gambar 4 dapat dilihat bahwa penerimaan pajak reklame secara umum dapat merespon shock dari ind. pada periode pertama penerimaan pajak reklame belum dapat merespon shock dari ind. kemudian pada periode kedua, penerimaan pajak reklame mulai merespon shock dari ind secara negatif. uji forecast error variance decomposition model vecm setelah menganalisis perilaku dinamis melalui impulse responce, selanjutnya akan dilihat karakteristik model melalui variance decomposition. variance decomposition digunakan untuk menyusun forecast error variance suatu variabel, yaitu seberapa besar perbedaan antara variance sebelum dan sesudah shock, baik shock yang berasal dari diri sendiri maupun shock dari variabel lain untuk melihat pengaruh relatif variabel-variabel penelitian terhadap variabel lainnya. hasil uji variance decomposition dapat dilihat pada tabel 5 berikut ini: -.06 -.04 -.02 .00 .02 .04 .06 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 res pons e of ln_rklm to ln_rklm -.06 -.04 -.02 .00 .02 .04 .06 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 res pons e of ln_rklm to ln_pdrb -.06 -.04 -.02 .00 .02 .04 .06 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 res pons e of ln_rklm to siup -.06 -.04 -.02 .00 .02 .04 .06 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 res pons e of ln_rklm to ind -.002 -.001 .000 .001 .002 .003 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 res pons e of ln_pdrb to ln_rklm -.002 -.001 .000 .001 .002 .003 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 res pons e of ln_pdrb to ln_pdrb -.002 -.001 .000 .001 .002 .003 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 res pons e of ln_pdrb to siup -.002 -.001 .000 .001 .002 .003 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 res pons e of ln_pdrb to ind -4 0 4 8 12 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 res pons e of siup to ln_rklm -4 0 4 8 12 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 res pons e of siup to ln_pdrb -4 0 4 8 12 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 res pons e of siup to siup -4 0 4 8 12 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 res pons e of siup to ind -.2 -.1 .0 .1 .2 .3 .4 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 res pons e of ind to ln_rklm -.2 -.1 .0 .1 .2 .3 .4 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 res pons e of ind to ln_pdrb -.2 -.1 .0 .1 .2 .3 .4 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 res pons e of ind to siup -.2 -.1 .0 .1 .2 .3 .4 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 res pons e of ind to ind response to cholesky one s.d. innov ations -.06 -.04 -.02 .00 .02 .04 .06 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 res pons e of ln_rklm to ln_rklm -.06 -.04 -.02 .00 .02 .04 .06 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 res pons e of ln_rklm to ln_pdrb -.06 -.04 -.02 .00 .02 .04 .06 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 res pons e of ln_rklm to siup -.06 -.04 -.02 .00 .02 .04 .06 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 res pons e of ln_rklm to ind -.002 -.001 .000 .001 .002 .003 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 res pons e of ln_pdrb to ln_rklm -.002 -.001 .000 .001 .002 .003 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 res pons e of ln_pdrb to ln_pdrb -.002 -.001 .000 .001 .002 .003 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 res pons e of ln_pdrb to siup -.002 -.001 .000 .001 .002 .003 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 res pons e of ln_pdrb to ind -4 0 4 8 12 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 res pons e of siup to ln_rklm -4 0 4 8 12 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 res pons e of siup to ln_pdrb -4 0 4 8 12 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 res pons e of siup to siup -4 0 4 8 12 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 res pons e of siup to ind -.2 -.1 .0 .1 .2 .3 .4 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 res pons e of ind to ln_rklm -.2 -.1 .0 .1 .2 .3 .4 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 res pons e of ind to ln_pdrb -.2 -.1 .0 .1 .2 .3 .4 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 res pons e of ind to siup -.2 -.1 .0 .1 .2 .3 .4 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 res pons e of ind to ind response to cholesky one s.d. innov ations 200 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016: 194-202 tabel 5. hasil uji forecast error variance decomposition period s.e. ln_rklm ln_pdrb siup ind 1 0.026798 100.0000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 2 0.039966 94.03826 0.057846 1.301978 4.601918 11 0.184684 51.82764 1.272394 13.99802 32.90195 12 0.194447 51.29196 1.478135 14.11187 33.11803 14 0.209226 50.67729 1.870819 14.18808 33.26381 16 0.218858 50.17301 2.242787 14.36707 33.21713 19 0.225554 49.55345 2.829405 14.73136 32.88578 20 0.226332 49.41011 3.022093 14.79026 32.77754 sumber: eviews 7.2 (diolah) tabel 5 dapat dijelaskan bahwa variabel yang mempunyai proporsi terbesar dalam mempengaruhi variabel penerimaan pajak reklame (ln_rklm) adalah variabel pajak reklame itu sendiri. pada periode pertama, variabel yang memberikan pengaruh terhadap penerimaan pajak reklame hanya penerimaan pajak reklame itu sendiri kemudian pada periode kedua variabel pdrb (ln_pdrb), jumlah siup (siup), dan industri mulai memberikan pengaruh terhadap penerimaan pajak reklame. variabel ln_pdrb (pdrb) mulai menjelaskan hubungannya terhadap penerimaan pajak reklame (ln_rklm) pada periode kedua dimana variabel pdrb menjelaskan ln_rklm sebesar 0,06 persen. pada periode ketiga hingga keduapuluh, variabel pdrb mengalami peningkatan dalam menjelaskan hubungannya terhadap penerimaan pajak reklame dimana periode keduapuluh variabel pdrb dan pada periode keduapuluh variabel pdrb menjelaskan variabel pajak reklame sebesar 3,02 persen. melihat hal ini, dapat disimpulkan bahwa pdrb signifikan dalam menjelaskan shock dari variabel penerimaan pajak reklame. variabel siup (jumlah siup) pada periode kedua mulai menjelaskan bagaimana hubungannya terhadap ln_rklm (penerimaan pajak reklame) sebesar 1,30 persen. kemudian pada periode ketiga hingga keduapuluh, jumlah siup dalam menjelaskan hubungannya dengan penerimaan pajak reklame mengalami peningkatan dimana pada periode keduapuluh, jumlah siup mampu menjelaskan sebesar 14,79 persen. variabel ind (industri) pada periode kedua mulai menjelaskan bagaimana hubungannya terhadap ln_rklm (penerimaan pajak reklame) sebesar 4,60 persen. pada periode ketiga hingga keempatbelas, variabel industri mengalami peningkatan dalam menjelaskan hubungannya terhadap penerimaan pajak reklame dimana periode keempatbelas variabel industri menjelaskan variabel pajak reklame sebesar 33,26 persen. kemudian pada periode keenambelas hingga keduapuluh mengalami penurunan, dalam menjelaskan hubungannya terhadap pajak reklame dimana periode keduapuluh variabel industri menjelaskan variabel pajak reklame sebesar 32,77 persen. maka dengan ini dapat disimpulkan bahwa industri tidak signifikan dalam menjelaskan shock dari variabel penerimaan pajak reklame. pengaruh pdrb terhadap penerimaan pajak reklame dari hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pdrb kabupaten magelang mempunyai hubungan yang searah dengan penerimaan pajak reklame, hal ini dapat dilihat pada uji kasualitas granger. berdasarkan hasil uji impulse response function dan variance decomposition goncangan yang terjadi pada pdrb direspon secara positif. pdrb merupakan suatu tolak ukur kemakmuran bagi suatu daerah. semakin tinggi pdrb suatu daerah mengindikasikan semakin tingginya tingkat pendapatan dan kemajuan analisis penerimaan pajak reklame… (lisa dwi mardiana, nano prawoto) 201 suatu daerah. pdrb yang tinggi mencerminkan keadaan perekonomian dan pergerakan sektorsektor ekonomi yang baik. keadaan ini didorong oleh investasi yang selanjutnya akan meninggikan tingkat kegiatan ekonomi daerah dan berakibat pendapatan masyarakat bertambah dan seterusnya konsumsi masyarakat bertambah tinggi. kenaikan ini akan menghasilkan lebih banyak barang dan jasa dan terciptanya penanaman modal baru. pengaruh siup terhadap penerimaan pajak reklame berdasarkan hasil dari impulse respon function penerimaan pajak reklame merespon positif shock dari jumlah siup. hal ini juga dirasakan pada hasil variance decomposition dimana jumlah industri selalu terjadi peningkatan dalam menjelaskan hubungannya. dalam jangka panjang jumlah siup berpengaruh positif terhadap penerimaan pajak reklame kabupaten magelang dan ini berarti pertumbuhan jumlah siup memberikan kontribusi terhadap penerimaan pajak reklame. hal ini sependapat dengan phany ineke putri (2013) bahwa jumlah siup berpengaruh signifikan terhadap penerimaan pajak reklame. dalam pemasangan reklame harus memiliki syarat dalam perizinan yaitu reklame yang telah dilaporkan adalah reklame yang sudah memiliki stampel serta tanda tangan dari pihak badan penanaman modal dan perizinan terpadu (bpmppt) pada reklame yang dipasang. dalam hal ini salah satu syarat izin reklame harus memiliki surat izin usaha perdagangan (siup) tersebut. pengaruh industri terhadap penerimaan pajak reklame berdasar pada pernyataan sutrisno yang menyatakan jumlah insustri mempengaruhi penerimaan pajak reklame maka penelitian ini tidak sejalan dengan teori pernyataan sutrisno. jumlah industri pada kausalitas granger tidak terjadi kausalitas apapun untuk kedua variabel. dimana jumlah industri tidak mempengaruhi penerimaan pajak reklame begitu juga dengan penerimaan pajak reklame tidak mempengaruhi pajak reklame. berdasarkan hasil impulse response function (irf) dan variance decomposition dapat di lihat bahwa pengaruh jumlah industri terhadap penerimaan pajak reklame sudah dapat dirasakan pada periode kedua. dimana pada hasil irf penerimaan pajak reklame merespon negatif dari industri. sedangkan pada hasil fevd dapat dilihat bahwa jumlah industri yang selalu mengalami kenaikan namun juga mengalami penurunan. dalam jangka panjang menunjukkan bahwa jumlah industri berpengaruh secara negatif terhadap penerimaan pajak reklame kabupaten magelang dan ini berarti adanya pertumbuhan jumlah industri tidak mempengaruhi penerimaan pajak reklame. hal ini dapat terjadi karena dalam menentukan lokasi industri, yang dilihat dari para pemilik industri adalah faktor biaya yang akan mereka keluarkan dimana para pemilik industri akan berusaha untuk meminimumkan biaya mereka demi mencapai keuntungan maksimum. selain biaya yang menjadi kendala faktor perubahan kebijakan atau regulasi pemerintah. di kabupaten magelang, regulasi yang mendasari pemungutan pajak reklame tentu akan mengalami perubahan terutama regulasi mengenai tarif pajak reklame. perubahan tarif dilakukan oleh pemerintah untuk meningkatkan pendapatan pajak daerah tetapi perubahan ini dinilai negatif oleh pemilik industri karena dengan adanya perubahan dalam tarif dimana tarif akan dinaikkan maka dalam hal ini berdampak pada biaya yang harus dikeluarkan industri terutama biaya dalam pengenalan barang dan jasa kemasyarakat. peningkatan biaya ini tentunya akan membuat keuntungan yang diperoleh industri menurun dan hal ini pasti tidak diinginkan oleh industri. sehingga cara yang ditempuh pihak industri dengan tidak melaporkan dengan benar jumlah reklame yang mereka pasang. adanya pemasangan reklame tanpa izin merupakan salah satu indikator berkurangnya penerimaan pajak reklame. hal ini bisa disebabkan kurangnya pemahaman masyarakat terhadap peraturan yang diterapkan dan bisa juga kesengajaan dari pihak pemasang reklame. simpulan berdasarkan hasil uji hipotesis dan pembahasan pada bab sebelumnya, maka penelitian ini dapat diambil kesimpulan sebagai berikut: adanya interaksi dan hubungan jangka panjang anatara pdrb dan jumlah siup 202 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016: 194-202 terhadap penerimaan pajak reklame namun untuk jumlah industri tidak berpengaruh terhadap penerimaan pajak reklame. saran berdasarkan kesimpulan di atas, sebagai masukan bagi pemerintah kabupaten magelang dalam upaya peningkatan penerimaan pajak reklame, maka dapat disarankan sebagai berikut: a. meningkatkan peran faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi penerimaan pajak reklame. menjaga pertumbuhan pdrb kabupaten magelang bahkan meningkatkan yang secara tidak langsung akan mempengaruhi penerimaan pajak reklame. b. 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reklame kota malang. jurnal ilmiah. fakultas ekonomi dan bisnis universitas brawijaya. malang. sukirno, sadono. 2011. makroekonomi teori pengantar. edisi ketiga. cetakan ke-20. pt rajagrafindo persada. jakarta. waluyo.2008. perpajakan indonesia buku 1. edisi 8. cetakan pertama. salemba empat. jakarta. waluyo, budi. 2011. pengaruh pajak reklame, pajak restoran, retribusi jasa umum, jumlah penduduk, dan jumlah industri terhadap pendapatan asli daerah (pad) kota depok jawa barat. fakultas ekonomi universitas gunadarma jakarta. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 1, april 2018, hlm. 21-34 doi: 10.18196/jesp.19.1.3938 penentuan potensi sektor unggulan dan potensial di provinsi maluku bayu kharisma, ferry hadiyanto departemen ilmu ekonomi, fakultas ekonomi dan bisnis, universitas padjadjaran jl. dipati ukur no. 35 bandung, 40132, indonesia e-mail korespondensi: bayu.karisma@fe.unpad.ac.id abstract: this paper aims to analyze the potentials of the leading sector and to formulate policy priorities for regional economic development in maluku province. the research methodology used in this research is location quotient (lq), growth ratio model (mrp) and overlay analysis. the r esult of the research shows that in maluku province there are 8 economic categories that have basic sector namely agriculture, forestry and fishery category; categories of water supply, waste management and recycling; major trade-retail and auto-motorcycle repair categories; categories of transportation and warehousing; government administration, defense and compulsory social security schemes; categories of education services; categories of health services and social activities; and other service categories. the result of growth ratio (mrp) shows that the sector with the highest average regional growth rate (rps) in maluku province is mining and quarrying sector. furthermore, overlay analysis shows that the sectors of government administration, defense, compulsory social secur ity and large and retail trade; car and motorcycle repairs key words: regional economic development in maluku province, location quotient (lq), growth ratio model (mrp), overlay analysis jel classification: o11, o21 pendahuluan provinsi maluku merupakan wilayah gugus kepulauan yang berada di wilayah indonesia bagian timur. sebagaimana karakteristik wilayah kepulauan, lebih dari 90% wilayah kedua provinsi tersebut terdiri dari perairan, hanya sebagian kecil saja daratan dari total wilayah yang ada, dan tidak seluruh pulau dapat dihuni oleh penduduk. tersebarnya lokasi antar pulau yang menyebar menyebabkan rendahnya akses antar gugus pulau, sehingga rentang kendali menjadi lebih jauh jangkauannya dan menjadi tantangan fisik tersendiri bagi pengembangan infrastruktur. oleh karena itu, kualitas dan kuantitas infrastruktur yang memadai akan memberikan dampak yang positif sebagai sumber pertumbuhan ekonomi yang berkelanjutan. oleh karena itu, adanya percepatan program pembangunan infrastruktur, mulai dari pembangunan infrastruktur jalan, jembatan, pelabuhan, sampai dengan bandara diharapkan dapat meminimalkan biaya transaksi dan secara tidak langsung dapat menggerakkan perekonomian di seluruh daerah di maluku secara lebih merata. sementara itu, adanya pengembangan sektor parawisata diharapkan dapat memberikan dampak positif terhadap kinerja perekonomian dan kesejahteraan masyarakat di provinsi maluku. hal tersebut dikarenakan dapat mencipkan lapangan pekerjaan sehingga masyarakat dapat memperoleh pendapatan dengan semakin meningkatnya peran sektor parawisata tersebut. namun demikian, pengembangan perikanan kelautan dan wisata yang ditunjang oleh infrastruktur tidak dapat berjalan dengan baik apabila tidak didukung oleh peningkatan kualitas 22 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 1, april 2018: 21-34 sumber daya manusia di provinsi maluku, terlebih jika dikaitkan dengan percepatan pengembangan sektor migas di blok masela. oleh karena itu, adanya sumber daya manusia yang terampil akan sangat dibutuhkan, baik melalui pendidikan dan pelatihan vokasional yang sesuai dengan arah pengembangan potensi daerah sehingga provinsi maluku dapat memiliki tenaga kerja yang terampil dan kompetitif. selain itu, tenaga kerja yang berkualitas tidak dapat dilepaskan dari tingkat kesehatan yang lebih baik. dengan demikian, adanya perbaikan fasilitas kesehatan sangat penting karena dengan memiliki kesehatan yang baik maka dapat meningkatkan produktivitas masyarakat di provinsi maluku dalam melakukan aktivitas ekonomi. pada tahun 2017, pdrb di provinsi maluku dari sisi permintaan masih ditopang oleh tingginya tingkat konsumsi rumah tangga. penguatan konsumsi rumahtangga tersebut antara lain dipengaruhi oleh adanya peningkatan penghasilan dengan adanya pemberian tunjangan hari raya (thr) untuk pegawai negeri sipil (pns) dan pegawai swasta pada bulan juni 2017. peningkatan pendapatan juga mengalami peningkatan sejalan dengan menguatnya nilai tukar petani (ntp) karena indeks terima yang diperoleh oleh petani lebih baik dibandingkan dengan indeks bayar yang dikeluarkan oleh petani. penguatan ntp juga terjadi pada ntt tanaman bahan makanan, ntp perkebunan dan ntp peternakan. dengan demikian, berbagai hal tersebut mendorong masyarakat untuk melakukan konsumsi lebih tinggi, terlebih pada momen hari raya idul fitri yang bertepatan dengan libur anak sekolah. sementara itu, pdrb dari sisi lapangan usaha, kinerja pertanian, kehutanan dan perikanan sebagai salah satu kategori utama tumbuh melambat. melambatnya pertumbuhan ini disebabkan oleh kinerja pada subsektor perikanan karena dampak dari cuaca ekstrem yang menghambat kegiatan penangkapan ikan nelayan. namun, untuk waktu ke depan sektor pertanian dan perikanan diperkirakan akan cukup tumbuh seiring dengan semakin membaiknya cuaca yang berdampak pada semakin tingginya produktivitas hasil tangkapan ikan. sektor utama yang memberikan kontribusi utama adalah pertanian, kehutanan dan perikanan. hal ini tidak lain karena adanya peningkatan dari 5,2 triliun pada tahun 2012 menjadi sekitar 6,2 triliun di tahun 2016. meskipun begitu, berdasarkan laju pertumbuhannya justru terlihat fluktuatif dengan pertumbuhan 2012 sebesar 6,23 persen, tapi pada tahun 2016 menurun menjadi 4,82. selama lima tahun, pertumbuhan di tahun 2012 adalah yang tertinggi dan yang terendah ada pada tahun 2015, yang hanya sebesar 1,25 persen. lebih jelasnya dapat dilihat pada tabel 1. tabel 1. pdrb provinsi maluku berdasarkan harga konstan menurut lapangan usaha (miliar rupiah) lapangan usaha 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016**) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) a pertanian, kehutanan, dan perikanan 5.282,61 5.500,92 5.835,44 5.908,22 6.192,71 b pertambangan dan penggalian 663,46 674,43 819,22 811,27 842,97 c industri pengolahan 1.121,18 1.186,17 1.286,06 1.336,32 1.430,36 d pengadaan listrik dan gas 18,03 18,72 25,65 26,99 29,24 e pengadaan air, 109,01 112,26 118,82 119,48 124,34 penentuan potensi sektor unggulan dan potensial… (bayu kharisma, ferry hadiyanto) 23 lapangan usaha 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016**) pengelolaan sampah dan daur ulang f konstruksi 1.403,27 1.511,83 1.622,35 1.712,13 1.797,42 g perdagangan besar, eceran, reparasi mobil, motor 2.976,30 3.198,28 3.327,58 3.564,80 3.776,00 h transportasi dan pergudangan 1.118,33 1.191,63 1.295,79 1.361,61 1.418,65 i penyediaan akomodasi dan makan minum 373,90 404,59 423,52 456,30 455,15 j informasi dan komunikasi 766,10 836,24 899,97 981,13 1.058,79 k jasa keuangan dan asuransi 738,22 810,02 861,68 924,51 1.009,71 l real estate 76,98 79,08 84,69 87,09 89,06 m, n jasa perusahaan 225,69 238,64 250,16 258,71 264,38 o administrasi pemerintahan, pertahanan dan jaminan sosial wajib 4.116,34 4.285,73 4.519,31 4.969,72 5.298,92 p jasa pendidikan 1.122,99 1.161,96 1.272,53 1.372,33 1.481,77 q jasa kesehatan dan kegiatan sosial 502,86 504,09 517,35 542,49 572,49 r, s, t, u jasa lainnya 384,81 386,34 407,61 425,97 449,25 pdrb 21.000,08 22.100,94 23.567,73 24.859,06 26.291,19 keterangan: ** angka sangat sementara sumber: provinsi maluku dalam angka, 2016 beberapa hal yang dapat menjelaskan fenomena tersebut yaitu dikarenakan sangat bergantungnya sektor pertanian di wilayah kepulauan dengan iklim yang ada pada waktu tersebut. pembangunan infrastruktur yang masih jauh dari harapan untuk dapat mendukung pertumbuhan sektor pertanian menjadi kendala utama. kondisi perhubungan darat, laut dan udara yang mengkoneksikan wilayah antar kabupaten/kota di provinsi maluku masih sangat sullit untuk maju. gravitasi aktivitas ekonomi juga masih belum berhasil untuk dikembangkan menjadi sebuah daya tarik investasi yang lebih memberikan teknologi yang lebih baik dalam hal onfarm dan 24 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 1, april 2018: 21-34 out-farm. konvensionalisme dalam sektor pertanian karenanya masih mendominasi perkembangan sektor ini. salah satu upaya yang dapat dilakukan adalah melihat berbagai potensi yang dimiliki oleh suatu daerah tersebut. dengan demikian, apabila potensi tersebut dikembangkan dengan optimal maka secara tidak langsung akan memiliki benefit untuk daerah tersebut. beberapa penelitian yang berkaitan dengan penentuan potensi sektor unggulan daerah telah dilakukan. penelitian yang dilakukan oleh adhitama yang berjudul “pengembangan sektorsektor ekonomi di tiap kecamatan di kabupaten magelang”. dalam penelitiannya itu menggunakan metode analisis location quotient (lq), shift share dan klassen tipologi pendekatan sektoral. hasil penelitiannya adalah sektor jasa, sektor pertanian, dan sektor perdagangan, hotel dan restoran di kabupaten magelang mendominasi sektor unggulan yang ada di tiap kecamatan di kabupaten magelang. tercatat terdapat 9 kecamatan yang memiliki sektor unggulan disektor jasa, 8 kecamatan yang memiliki keunggulan disektor pertanian dan 7 kecamatan yang memiliki keunggulan disektor perdagangan, hotel dan restoran. basuki dan gayatri yang berjudul “penentu sektor unggulan dalam pembangunan daerah: studi kasus di kabupaten ogan komering ilir”. penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan analisis mrp, shift share, lq dan tipologi overlay dan klassen. hasil dari penelitian ini dapat disimpulkan bahwa potensi ekonomi yang dimiliki kabupaten ogan komering ilir adalah sektor pertanian dan industri manufaktur yang merupakan pertumbuhan sektor dominan. selain itu, sektor ini juga menunjukkan peningkatan struktur pertumbuhan ekonomi. hal ini mengingat sebagian besar penduduk diwilayah kabupaten oki masih terlibat dalam pertanian, sehingga pertanian memiliki pertumbuhan yang luar biasa dibandingkan sektor ekonomi lainnya. selain itu, industri manufaktur juga merupakan sektor ekonomi dengan dengan pertumbuhan yang luar biasa. industri manufaktur ini diantaranya industri kemplang dan pempek yang banyak berkembang di provinsi sumatera selatan dan kabupaten oki. penelitian yang dilakukan oleh setyorini dan setyawati dengan judul “identifikasi pengembangan wilayah kabupaten-kabupaten anggota lembaga regional barlingmascakeb”. penelitian ini menggunakan analisis tipologi klassen, analisis model rasio pertumbuhan (mrp), analisis location quotient (lq), analisis indeks divergensi krugman dan analisis connectivity quotient (cq). temuan dari penelitian ini yaitu kabupaten cilacap yang termasuk dalam klasifikasi daerah cepat maju dan cepat tumbuh. kabupaten purbalingga termasuk dalam daerah berkembang cepat. kabupaten banjarnegara, kabupaten banyumas dan kabupaten kebumen termasuk dalam klasifikasi daerah relatif tertinggal. gunawan (2011) menganalisis sektor-sektor unggulan perekonomian kabupaten rembang tahun 2000-2008. penelitian ini menggunakan metode shift share, mrp, location quotient, overlay dan forecasting untuk menganalisis pertumbuhan sektor ekonomi, sektor unggulan, dan peramalan perekonomian. hasil penelitiannya berdasarkan analisis overlay (paparan dari analisis pergeseran bersih, analisis mrp dan analisis lq) sektor perekonominan kabupaten rembang yang tumbuh dominan, kompetitif dan surplus adalah sektor pertambangan dan penggalian. marlina (2014) menganalisis sektor unggulan dalam perekonomian kota bogor (periode 2006-2012). penelitiannya menggunakan metode location quotient, shift share, mrp, dan overlay untuk melihat sektor unggulan di kota bogor. hasil penelitiannya berdasarkan analisis overlay terdapat satu sektor unggulan dalam perekonomian kota bogor, yaitu sektor listrik, gas penentuan potensi sektor unggulan dan potensial… (bayu kharisma, ferry hadiyanto) 25 dan air bersih. peningkatan kegiatan konstruksi, industri dan niaga di kota bogor mempengaruhi pertumbuhan sektor listrik, gas dan air bersih. sementara dari sisi subsektor, terdapat tiga subsektor unggulan, yaitu subsektor air bersih, subsektor lembaga keuangan selain bank, dan subsektor sewa bangunan. subsektor unggulan memiliki sifat komoditas tumbuh dominan, kompetitif dan surplus. dengan mengoptimalkan kegiatan ekonomi pada sektor potensial, diharapkan sektor tersebut akan berkembang dan dapat menjadi sektor basis pada daerah tersebut. dengan bertambahnya kegiatan ekonomi disektor basis maupun sektor potensial daerah akan berimbas pada peningkatan pdrb. hal ini dikarenakan dengan adanya spesialisasi sesuai dengan sektor atau subsektor unggulan yang dimiliki masing-masing daerah nantinya akan dapat digunakan untuk meningkatkan efektifitas dan efisiensi masyarakat dalam melaksanakan kegiatan ekonomi. untuk itulah pemerintah daerah harus mengetahui dengan pasti apa saja yang merupakan sektor basis maupun sektor non basis serta sektor-sektor mana sajakah yang memiliki potensi untuk dikembangkan sehingga nantinya sektor potensial tersebut dapat menjadi sektor basis yang baru di daerah tersebut. oleh karena itu, melihat berbagai permasalahan yang terjadi di provinsi maluku, terutama dari sisi lapangan usaha atau sektor maka tujuan penelitian ini adalah menganalisa potensi-potensi sektor unggulan sehingga dapat diketahui secara keseluruhan bentuk struktur ekonomi yang ada di provinsi maluku. metode penelitian metodologi yang akan digunakan adalah location quotient (lq), model rasio pertumbuhan (mrp) dan analisis overlay. alat analisis tersebut bertujuan untuk mengetahui sektor unggulan dan struktur ekonomi yang ada pada seluruh provinsi di pulau maluku, sehingga dapat diketahui secara keseluruhan seperti apa struktur ekonomi yang ada di provinsi maluku. analisis location quotient analisis location quotient (lq) merupakan suatu metode statistik yang menggunakan karakteristik output/nilai tambah atau kesempatan kerja untuk menganalisis dan menentukan keberagaman dari basis ekonomi (economic base) masyarakat daerah/lokal (arsyad, 1999). sementara itu yang termasuk kedalam basis ekonomi masyarakat adalah sektor-sektor yang memiliki karakteristik menyangkut tentang pendapatan dan kesempatan kerja. analisis lq memberikan kerangka pengertian tentang stabilitas dan fleksibilitas perekonomian masyarakat untuk merubah kondisi melalui penyelidikan terhadap derajat industri-industri/sektor-sektor yang ada dilingkungan masyarakat (heilbrun, 1987). analisis lq sering digunakan untuk mengestimasi industri ekspor atau basic industry, dimana industri tersebut memiliki karakteristik dapat membawa sejumlah unit uang kepada masyarakat melalui ekspor barang dan jasa, industri yang seperti ini kemudian dikenal dengan nama industri-industri basis (basic industries). sementara itu industri-industri yang bergerak men-supply barang dan jasa untuk kegunaan konsumsi lokal/daerah dinamakan sebagai industri-industri non basis. seperti yang telah diketahui di atas bahwa pada dasarnya teori basis ekonomi menekankan pada berbagai aktivitas ekspor (basis) yang akan mendorong perekonomian dan aktivitas ekonomi daerah bergantung pada pertumbuhan (atau pengurangan) dari aktivitas ekspor tersebut. asumsi yang digunakan pada saat menganalisis dengan alat ini adalah bahwa: • semua penduduk di setiap daerah mempunyai pola permintaaan yang sama dengan pola permintaan nasional (daerah referensinya), kondisi ini mengasumsikan bahwa 26 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 1, april 2018: 21-34 pola pengeluaran secara geografis adalah sama • bahwa produktivitas tenaga kerja di seluruh daerah sama • setiap industri/sektor akan menghasilkan produk yang homogen analisis lq pada industri/sektor tertentu membandingkan share industri/sector tertentu terhadap total tenaga kerja/ouput pada tingkat daerah/lokal dengan share industri/sektor yang sama terhadap total tenaga kerja/output pada tingkat nasional (daerah yang lebih luas, yang disebut dengan daerah referensi). dimana jika share industri/sektor daerah lebih besar dari pada share industri/sektor nasional maka porsi kelebihan dari output/tenaga kerja tersebut dapat menjelaskan tentang besarnya ekspor yang terjadi. pernyataan tersebut dapat dirumuskan sebagai berikut: dimana: • lqi meyatakan besarnya nilai location quotient sektor i di suatu daerah • vi menyatakan jumlah output/tenaga kerja dari industri i di suatu daerah • vt menyatakan jumlah total output/tenaga kerja yang ada di suatu daerah • vi menyatakan jumlah output/tenaga kerja dari industri i di wilayah referensi • vt menyatakan jumlah total output/tenaga kerja yang ada di wilayah referensi nilai yang ditunjukkan pada rumusan lq ini akan memiliki arti seperti pada aturan dibawah ini :  jika nilai lqi > 1 maka sektor i di daerah tersebut lebih terspesialisasi dibandingkan dengan sektor yang sama pada wilayah referensi atau dengan kata lain sektor tersebut merupakan sektor yang mampu untuk mengekspor produknya/tenaga kerjanya (sektor basis)  jika nilai lqi < 1 maka sektor i di daerah tersebut kurang terspesialisasi dibandingkan dengan sektor yang sama pada wilayah referensi atau dengan kata lain sektor tersebut merupakan sektor yang tidak mampu untuk mengekspor produknya/tenaga kerjanya (sektor non basis)  jika nilai lqi = 1 maka sektor i di daerah tersebut memiliki tingkat spesialisasi yang sama dibandingkan dengan sektor yang sama pada wilayah referensi atau dengan kata lain sektor tersebut merupakan sektor mampu memenuhi kebutuhan daerahnya sendiri model rasio pertumbuhan (mrp) selain alat analisis lq yang digunakan untuk mengidentifikasi kategori dan subkategori ekonomi potensial berdasarkan kriteria kontribusi pdrb, alat analisis lain dirasakan penting dipergunakan untuk mengidentifikasi potensi ekonomi di provinsi maluku. dalam hal ini adalah menggunakan lebih dari satu alat analisis dalam mengidentifikasi kategori ekonomi potensial di suatu wilayah. oleh karena itu, analisis mrp turut digunakan untuk menganalisis kategori dan subkategori ekonomi potensial berdasarkan kriteria pertumbuhan pdrb provinsi maluku. model rasio pertumbuhan ini digunakan untuk melihat diskripsi dari kegiatan ekonomi, terutama struktur ekonomi daerah penelitian, yang lebih menekankan pada kriteria pertumbuhan (basuki & gayatri, 2009). model rasio pertumbuhan (dapat digunakan untuk menentukan sektor ataupun subsektor unggulan berdasarkan pertumbuhan pdrb. model analisis ini menggunakan perbandingan pertumbuhan suatu sektor atau subsektor dalam skala kecil mapuan skala yang lebih besar. dalam analisi mrp terdapat dua macam rasio pertumbuhan, yaitu (tarigan, 2005): a) rasio pertumbuhan wilayah referensi (rpr) t i t i v v v v ilq  penentuan potensi sektor unggulan dan potensial… (bayu kharisma, ferry hadiyanto) 27 merupakan perbandingan rata-rata pertumbuhan pendapatan (pdrb) kategori i di indonesia dengan rata-rata pertumbuhan pendapatan (pdrb) di indonesia, dengan rumus: b) rasio pertumbuhan wilayah studi (rps) merupakan perbandingan antara pertumbuhan pendapatan (pdrb) kategori i di provinsi maluku dengan pertumbuhan pendapatan (pdrb) kategori i di provinsi maluku, dengan rumus: dimana: keterangan: • ∆eij = perubahan pdrb kategori (subkategori) i di provinsi maluku • eij,t = pdrb kategori (subkategori) i di provinsi maluku pada tahun akhir analisis • ∆ein = perubahan pdrb kategori (subkategori) i di indonesia • ein,t = pdrb kategori (subkategori) i di indonesia pada tahun akhir analisis • ∆en = perubahan pdrb indonesia • en,t = total pdrb tahun akhir analisis di indonesia • mij = perubahan pdrb kategori (subkategori) i di provinsi maluku yang disebabkan oleh pengaruh pertumbuhan kategori (subkategori) i di indonesia • cij = perubahan pdrb kategori (subkategori) i di provinsi maluku yang disebabkan oleh keunggulan kompetitif kategori (subkategori) i di provinsi maluku. berdasarkan rumus atau rasio yang telah disampaikan di atas, maka terdapat 4 kategori dalam model rasio pertumbuhan, atara lain: (1) rps dan rpr memiliki nilai (+), berarti kegiatan tersebut pada tingkat wilayah referensi maupun tingkat wilayah studi pertumbuhannya menonjol. (2) nilai rps (+) dan rpr (−), berarti kegiatan tersebut pada tingkat wilayah referensi pertumbuhannya menonjol dan pada tingkat wilayah studi pertumbuhannya belum menonjol. (3) nilai rps (−) dan rpr (+), berarti kegiatan tersbut pada tingkat wilayah referensi pertumbuhannya belum menonjol dan pada tingkat wilayah studi pertumbuhannya menonjol. (4) rps dan rpr memiliki nilai (−), berati kegiatan tersebut pada tingkat wilayah referensi maupun wilayah studi pertumbuhannya belum menonjol. analisis overlay setelah melakukan perhitungan menggunakan analisis lq dan mrp, maka berikutnya adalah melakukan overlay data antara hasil analisis lq dengan analisis mrp. teknik overlay ini menggunakan hasil perhitungan rps (pertumbuhan) dan lq (kontribusi), hasil dari c ij = de ij e ij de in e in é ë ê ê ù û ú ú e ij c ij = de in de in e ij e in c ij = de ij e in e in de ij -1 é ë ê ê ù û ú ú de in e ij e in de in c ij de in e ij +1 = de ij e n e in de ij = de ij e ij de in e in rasio pertumbuhan wilayah referensi (rpr) = de in e in de n e n m ij = de in e in de n e n é ë ê ù û úe ij m ij e ij = de in e n e in e n de n e in e in e n é ë ê ù û ú m ij e ij = de in e n e in de n -1 é ë ê ù û ú de n e n de in c ij de in e ij +1 = de ij e n e in de ij = de ij e ij de in e in rasio pertumbuhan wilayah referensi (rps) = de ij e ij de in e in 28 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 1, april 2018: 21-34 analisis ini digunakan untuk melihat deskripsi sektor ekonomi yang potensial untuk dikembangkan (kuncoro, 2004). hasil analisis ini diklasifikasikan menjadi 4 tipe, yaitu: (1) rps dan lq memiliki nilai (+), menunjukkan sektor ekonomi tersebut dominan baik pertumbuhan maupun kontribusinya. (2) rps (+) dan lq (−), menunjukkan jika sektor ekonomi tersebut dominan dalam pertumbuhan namun kontribusinya kecil. (3) rps (−) dan lq (+), menunjukkan jika sektor ekonomi tersebut memiliki pertumbuhan yang kecil namun memiliki nilai kontribusi yang besar. (4) rps dan lq memiliki nilai (−), menunjukkan bahwa sektor ekonomi tersebut memiliki nilai kecil baik dalam pertumbuhan maupun kontribusinya. hasil dan pembahasan efisiensi badan usaha milik daerah (bumd) bidang jasa produksi, merupakan salah satu indikator dalam mengukur capaian kinerja bumd bidang jasa produksi yang dimiliki oleh pemerintah provinsi jawa tengah. kinerja bumd bidang jasa produksi dinyatakan efisien apabila angka rasio efisiensi faktor input dan output sama dengan 1 atau (100%), sementara jika nilai efisiensi mendekati 0 dan atau kurang dari 1 (e <1 atau e < 100%), maka dapat diartikan bumd bidang jasa produksi tersebut tidak efisien. dalam melihat potensi ekonomi di provinsi maluku maka dilakukan indentifikasi dan analisis terhadap kategori atau subkategori ekonomi yang potensial di provinsi maluku dan digunakan 4 macam alat analisis, yaitu analisis location quotient (lq), analisis model rasio pertumbuhan (mrp), analisis overlay dan anp. secara lebih rinci pembahasan melalui keempat alat analisis tersebut akan dijelaskan berikut ini. analisis location quotient alat analisis location quotient (lq) digunakan untuk mengidentifikasi keunggulan komparatif kegiatan ekonomi (biasa disebut sebagai sektor basis) di provinsi maluku dengan membandingkannya terhadap nasional. berdasarkan analisis lq sebagaimana yang tertera pada tabel 1 maka provinsi maluku terdapat 8 kategori ekonomi yang memiliki keunggulan komparatif (nilai lq-nya > 1), yaitu kategori pertanian, kehutanan dan perikanan; kategori pengadaan air, pengelolaan sampah dan daur ulang; kategori perdagangan besar-eceran dan reparasi mobil-sepeda motor; kategori transportasi dan pergudangan; katgori adminstrasi pemerintahan, pertahanan dan jaminan sosial wajib; kategori jasa pendidikan; kategori jasa kesehatan dan kegiatan sosial; dan kategori jasa lainnya. pada kategori pertanian, kehutanan dan perikanan terlihat bahwa nilai lq-nya mengalami trend penurunan. hal ini disebabkan diberlakukanya moratorium perikanan sehingga mengakibatkan penurunan pada sub kategori perikanan yang berdampak langsung terhadap kategori ini; selanjutnya pada subategori kehutanan menurunnya aktifitas ilegal loging akibat pengawasan yang ketat dari pemerintah dan aparat keamanan cenderung memberikan penurunan produksi pada subkategori ini yang bersumber dari hasil ilegal loging. selama periode 2010-2016, untuk beberapa tahun terakhir (2013-2014) efek el-nino menjadi penyebab kekeringan yang berkepanjangan sehingga terjadi gagal panen untuk komoditi tanaman pangan dan hortikultura di beberapa kabupaten yang merupakan sentral pertanian di provinsi maluku sehingga tidak langsung menurukan produksi sub kategori ini. adanya fenomena gunung botak pada tahun 2013-2014 banyak lahan pertanian di kabupaten buru yang tidak difungsikan dikarenakan tenaga kerja pertanian beralih fungsi menjadi penambang emas pada areal gunung botak. tabel 2. hasil penghitungan location quotient (lq) provinsi maluku tahun 2010 – 2016 lapangan usaha location quotient (lq) rata-rata lq hasil 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 a. pertanian, kehutanan dan perikanan 1.83 1.82 1.83 1.83 1.83 1.76 1.73 1.80 basis b. pertambangan dan penggalian 0.29 0.32 0.31 0.31 0.36 0.38 0.39 0.34 non basis c. industri pengolahan 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.25 0.24 0.24 0.24 non basis d. pengadaan listrik dan gas 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.08 non basis e. pengadaan air, pengelolaan sampah, limbah dan daur ulang 6.22 6.21 6.20 6.18 6.08 5.64 6.01 6.08 basis f. konstruksi 0.69 0.70 0.69 0.70 0.70 0.68 0.69 0.69 non basis g. perdagangan besar dan eceran; reparasi mobil dan sepeda motor 1.00 0.98 1.00 1.03 1.00 1.03 1.05 1.01 basis h. transportasi dan pergudangan 1.46 1.44 1.41 1.41 1.40 1.35 1.32 1.40 basis i. penyediaan akomodasi dan makan minum 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.60 0.58 0.59 0.57 0.59 non basis j. informasi dan komunikasi 0.94 0.92 0.87 0.86 0.83 0.81 0.82 0.86 non basis k. jasa keuangan dan asuransi 0.86 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.96 0.93 0.94 0.94 non basis l. real estate 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.12 0.12 non basis mn. jasa perusahaan 0.74 0.72 0.70 0.68 0.64 0.61 0.59 0.67 non basis o. administrasi pemerintahan, pertahanan dan jaminan sosial wajib 4.82 4.96 5.25 5.33 5.40 5.60 5.71 5.30 basis p. jasa pendidikan 1.91 1.84 1.74 1.67 1.71 1.69 1.68 1.75 basis q. jasa kesehatan dan kegiatan sosial 2.46 2.38 2.31 2.14 2.01 1.94 1.87 2.16 basis rstu. jasa lainnya 1.36 1.26 1.20 1.13 1.08 1.03 0.99 1.15 basis sumber: hasil perhitungan 30 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 1, april 2018: 21-34 analisis model rasio pertumbuhan model rasio pertumbuhan (mrp) merupakan alat analisis yang digunakan untuk melihat potensi kategori ekonomi berdasarkan kriteria pertumbuhan. analisis mrp terdiri dari 2 instrumen pengukuran, yaitu rasio pertumbuhan wilayah studi (rps) yang menunjukkan rasio pertumbuhan antara wilayah studi dengan wilayah referensi yang lebih besar, dalam hal ini adalah provinsi maluku terhadap nasional. selanjutnya instrumen kedua adalah rasio pertumbuhan wilayah referensi terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi agregat pada wilayah referensi (rpr). pada tabel 2 menunjukkan bahwa rps kategori pertanian, kehutanan dan perikanan di provinsi maluku memiliki nilai kurang dari 1. kondisi ini mengindikasikan bahwa kategori pertanian, kehutanan dan perikanan bukan merupakan kegiatan ekonomi yang potensial di provinsi maluku berdasarkan kriteria pertumbuhan. sementara itu, untuk tingkat nasional kategori pertanian, kehutanan dan perikanan juga bukan merupakan kategori potensial karena memiliki nilai rpr yang kurang dari 1. kategori pertambangan dan penggalian di provinsi maluku ternyata memiliki nilai rps lebih dari 1. artinya, kategori pertambangan dan penggalian merupakan kategori potensial berdasarkan kriteria pertumbuhan. kondisi yang berbeda terlihat di tingkat nasional, karena nilai rpr kategori pertambangan dan penggalian menunjukkan nilai kurang dari 1. dengan demikian, kategori pertambangan dan penggalian secara keseluruhan di indonesia kurang potensial dari sisi pertumbuhannya akan tetapi di provinsi maluku kategori ini merupakan kategori potensial berdasarkan kriteria pertumbuhannya. selanjutnya, kategori industri pengolahan merupakan kategori potensial di provinsi maluku dengan nilai rps lebih dari 1 (rps = 1,21), namun untuk hasil penghitungan rpr nasional kategori industri pengolahan masih kurang potensial dikarenakan nilai rpr kurang dari 1 (rpr = 0,97). kategori pengadaan listrik dan gas merupakan kategori potensial di provinsi maluku dengan hasil penghitungan rps lebih dari 1 (rps = 2,14). kategori ini juga merupakan kategori potensial untuk secara keseluruhan di indonesia, dikarenakan nilai rpr adalah sebesar 1,07. jika dilihat dari subkategori pembentuknya, subkategori ketenagalistrikan lebih dominan dan sangat potensial, hal ini dapat ditunjukkan dengan nilai rps dan rpr yang lebih besar dari 1. sementara itu, kategori pengadan air, pengelolaan sampah, limbah dan daur ulang di provinsi maluku kurang potensial (rps = 0,76) dari sisi pertumbuhan, begitu juga pertumbuhan kategori ini pada level nasional dimana terlihat kurang berpotensi dengan nilai rpr adalah sebesar 0,94. kategori konstruksi di provinsi mauku merupkan kategori yang sangat potensial (rps = 1,11) dari sisi pertumbuhan, begitu juga dengan pertumbuhan kategori konstruksi di indonesia juga merupakan kategori yang potensial dengan nilai rpr adalah sebesar 1,40. untuk kategori perdagangan besar-eceran dan reparasi mobil sepeda motor juga sangat berpotensi di provinsi maluku dengan nilai rps adalah sebesar 1,36. selanjutnya kategori transportasi dan pergudangan di provinsi maluku kurang berpotensi dimana nilai rps-nya adalah sebesar 0,92. sementara untuk nasional, kategori transportasi dan pergudangan sangat potensial dapat dilihat dengan nilai rpr adalah sebesar 1,45. kategori penyediaan akomodasi dan makan minum di provinsi maluku merupakan kategori potensial (rps = 1,21). pada level nasional kategori ini juga perupakan kategori potensial, hal ini terlihat pada nilai rpr adalah sebesar 1,19. untuk kategori informasi dan komunikasi di provinsi maluku kurang potensial terlihat dari nilai rps yaitu sebesar 0,78; sedangkan pada level nasional pertumbuhan kategori informasi dan penentuan potensi sektor unggulan dan potensial… (bayu kharisma, ferry hadiyanto) 31 komunikasi merupakan kategori yang sangat potensial dengan nilai rpr adalah sebesar 2,12. kategori real estate kurang potensial di provinsi maluku (rps=0,67), sedangkan pada level nasional kategori ini potensial. hal ini dapat dilihat dari besarnya nilai rpr yang lebih besar dari 1 (rpr = 1,23). pada kategori jasa perusahaan di provinsi maluku tidak begitu potensial dapat dilihat dari besarnya nilai rps adalah sebesar 0,62; sedangkan untuk tingkat nasional kategori ini sangat potensial, hal ini dapat dilihat dengan nilia rpr-nya adalah sebesar 1,70. sementara itu, untuk kategori administrasi pemerintahan, pertahanan dan jaminan sosial wajib di provinsi maluku sangat potensial, dimana hal ini terlihat dengan nilai rpsnya adalah sebesar 2,30; sebaliknya pada level nasional kategori ini kurang potensial. hal itu terlihat dari besarnya nilai rpr adalah sebesar 0,70. pada kategori jasa pendidikan, kategori jasa kesehatan dan kegiatan sosial, dan kategori jasa lainnya di provinsi maluku kurang begitu potensial. hal itu dapat dilihat dari nilai rps-nya sebesar berturut-turut adalah sebesar 0,77; 0,49 dan 0,34. sebaliknya pada level nasional untuk kategori jasa pendidikan; kategori jasa kesehatan dan kegiatan sosial; dan kategori jasa lainnya merupkan kategori yang potensial. besarnya nilai rpr adalah sebagai berikut kategori jasa pendidikan 1,40; kategori jasa kesehatan dan kegiatan sosial 1,62 dan kategori jasa lainnya adalah sebesar 1,49. tabel 3. hasil penghitungan rasio pertumbuhan provinsi maluku (rps) dan rasio pertumbuhan indonesia (rpr) provinsi malukutahun 2010 – 2016 lapangan usaha rps rpr riil nominal riil nominal (1) (2) (3) (2) (3) a. pertanian, kehutanan dan perikanan 0.95 0.81 b. pertambangan dan penggalian 7.59 + 0.23 c. industri pengolahan 1.21 + 0.97 d. pengadaan listrik dan gas 2.14 + 1.07 + e. pengadaan air, pengelolaan sampah, limbah dan daur ulang 0.76 0.94 f. konstruksi 1.11 + 1.40 + g. perdagangan besar dan eceran; reparasi mobil dan sepeda motor 1.36 + 1.06 + h. transportasi dan pergudangan 0.92 1.45 + i. penyediaan akomodasi dan makan minum 1.21 + 1.19 + j. informasi dan komunikasi 0.78 2.22 + k. jasa keuangan dan asuransi 1.45 + 1.54 + l. real estate 0.67 1.23 + mn. jasa perusahaan 0.62 1.70 + o. administrasi pemerintahan, pertahanan dan jaminan sosial wajib 2.30 + 0.70 p. jasa pendidikan 0.77 1.40 + 32 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 1, april 2018: 21-34 lapangan usaha rps rpr riil nominal riil nominal q. jasa kesehatan dan kegiatan sosial 0.49 1.62 + rstu. jasa lainnya 0.34 1.49 + sumber: hasil perhitungan analisis overlay analisis overlay merupakan analisis yang digunakan untuk melihat kategori dan sub kategori ekonomi potensial baik dari sisi kontribusi maupun sisi pertumbuhan pdrb. apabila hasil analisis lq dan mrp dibuat overlay, terdapat empat kemungkinan mengenai suatu sektor ekonomi di kabupaten yang dikaji. pertama, apabila lq > 1 dan rps> rpr (untuk nilai rps dan rpr yang lebih besar dari 1), maka sektor tersebut merupakan sektor yang sangat dominan, baik dari kontribusi maupun dari pertumbuhannya. sektor ini adalah sektor yang maju dan bertumbuh cepat. sektor ini dapat dipandang sebagai sektor unggulan (leading sector) di provinsi yang dikaji. kedua, apabila lq < 1 tetapi rps > rpr (untuk nilai rps dan rpr yang lebih besar dari 1), maka sektor tersebut merupakan sektor yang kontribusinya masih kecil tetapi pertumbuhannya semakin besar. sektor serupa ini adalah sektor yang sedang bertumbuh dan dapat ditingkatkan kontribusinya agar menjadi sektor yang dominan. sektor ini dapat dipandang sebagai sektor yang potensil (potential sector) di provinsi yang dikaji. ketiga, apabila lq > 1 tetapi rps < rpr maka sektor tersebut merupakan sektor yang kontribusinya besar tetapi pertumbuhannya lebih kecil. sektor ini merupakan sektor yang sedang mengalami penurunan pertumbuhan. sektor ini dapat dipandang sebagai sektor yang tertekan yang mengalami penurunan di provinsi yang dikaji. keempat, apabila lq < 1 dan rps < rpr, maka sektor tersebut merupakan sektor yang tidak potensil baik dari kriteria kontribusi maupun kriteria pertumbuhan. sektor ini adalah sektor yang tertinggal di provinsi yang dikaji. tabel 4. analisis overlay potensi ekonomi provinsi maluku tahun 2010-2016 lapangan usaha rps rpr lq overlay (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) a. pertanian, kehutanan dan perikanan 0.95 0.81 1.80 + b. pertambangan dan penggalian 7.59 0.23 0.34 + c. industri pengolahan 1.21 0.97 0.24 + d. pengadaan listrik dan gas 2.14 1.07 0.08 + + e. pengadaan air, pengelolaan sampah, limbah dan daur ulang 0.76 0.94 6.08 + f. konstruksi 1.11 1.40 0.69 + + g. perdagangan besar dan eceran; reparasi mobil dan sepeda motor 1.36 1.06 1.01 + + + h. transportasi dan pergudangan 0.92 1.45 1.40 + + i. penyediaan akomodasi dan makan minum 1.21 1.19 0.59 + + j. informasi dan komunikasi 0.78 2.22 0.86 + penentuan potensi sektor unggulan dan potensial… (bayu kharisma, ferry hadiyanto) 33 lapangan usaha rps rpr lq overlay (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) k. jasa keuangan dan asuransi 1.45 1.54 0.94 + + l. real estate 0.67 1.23 0.12 + mn. jasa perusahaan 0.62 1.70 0.67 + o. administrasi pemerintahan, pertahanan dan jaminan sosial wajib 2.30 0.70 5.30 + + p. jasa pendidikan 0.77 1.40 1.75 + + q. jasa kesehatan dan kegiatan sosial 0.49 1.62 2.16 + + rstu. jasa lainnya 0.34 1.49 1.15 + + sumber: hasil perhitungan upaya untuk melihat potensi ekonomi provinsi maluku secara lebih komperhensif, maka analisis overlay dilakukan sehingga analisis overlay yang dipergunakan untuk melihat keunggulan dan potensi ekonomi di provinsi maluku ini merupakan integrasi antara analisis lq (aspek keunggulan komparatif) dan analisis mrp (rasio pertumbuhan wilayah studi – rps). hasil perhitungan analisis overlay tahun 2010 – 2016 pada tabel 4, dapat dilihat sektor ekonomi di provinsi maluku, baik pertumbuhan maupun dari kontribusi yang diklasifikasikan sebagai berikut: 1. pertumbuhan (+) dan kontribusi (+) terdapat pada sektor administrasi pemerintahan, pertahanan, jaminan sosial wajib dan perdagangan besar dan eceran, reparasi mobil dan sepeda motor. artinya, sektor tersebut menunjukkan suatu kegiatan yang sangat dominan baik dari pertumbuhan maupun dari kontribusi yang sangat besar terhadap pembentukan pdrb dan pembangunan di provinsi maluku. 2. pertumbuhan (+) dan kontribusi (-), terdapat pada sektor pertambangan dan penggalian, industri pengolahan, pengadaan listrik dan gas, konstruksi, penyediaan akomodasi dan makan minum dan jasa keuangan, asuransi menunjukkan suatu kegiatan yang pertumbuhannya dominan tetapi kontribusinya kecil. kegiatan ini perlu lebih ditingkatkan kontribusinya untuk menjadi kegiatan yang dominan. 3. pertumbuhan (-) dan kontribusi (+), terdapat pada sektor pertanian, kehutanan dan perikanan, pengadaan air, pengelolaan sampah, limbah dan daur ulang, transportasi dan pergudangan, jasa pendidikan, jasa kesehatan dan kegiatan sosial dan jasa lainnya menunjukkan suatu kegiatan yang pertumbuhannya kecil tetapi kontribusinya besar. kegiatan ini sangat memungkinkan bahwa kegiatan sedang mengalami penurunan. 4. pertumbuhan (-) dan kontribusi (-), terdapat pada sektor informasi dan komunikasi, jasa perusahaan dan real estate menunjukkan suatu kegiatan yang tidak potensial baik dari kriteria pertumbuhan maupun kontribusi. simpulan ada beberapa temuan dari studi ini yang dapat disimpulkan. pertama, dalam penelitian ini ditemukan bukti kuat bahwa provinsi maluku terdapat 8 kategori ekonomi yang memiliki sektor basis, yaitu kategori pertanian, kehutanan dan perikanan; kategori pengadaan air, pengelolaan sampah dan daur ulang; kategori perdagangan besar-eceran dan reparasi mobil-sepeda motor; kategori transportasi dan pergudangan; kategori adminstrasi pemerintahan, pertahanan dan jaminan sosial wajib; kategori jasa pendidikan; kat34 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 1, april 2018: 21-34 egori jasa kesehatan dan kegiatan sosial; dan kategori jasa lainnya. hasil perhitungan model rasio pertumbuhan (mrp) menunjukkan bahwa sektor yang memiliki nilai rata-rata pertumbuhan regional (rps) tertinggi di provinsi maluku yakni sektor pertambangan dan penggalian. nilai ini mengindikasikan bahwa pertumbuhan dari sektor pertambangan dan penggalian di provinsi maluku lebih tinggi dibandingkan nasional. selanjutnya, hasil perhitungan analisis overlay menunjukkan bahwa sektor administrasi pemerintahan, pertahanan, jaminan sosial wajib dan perdagangan besar dan eceran; reparasi mobil dan sepeda motor mrupakan kegiatan yang sangat dominan baik dari pertumbuhan maupun dari kontribusi yang sangat besar terhadap pembentukan pdrb dan pembangunan di provinsi maluku. sementara itu, sektor informasi dan komunikasi, jasa perusahaan dan real estate menunjukkan suatu kegiatan yang tidak potensial, baik dari kriteria pertumbuhan maupun kontribusi. daftar pustaka adhitama, r. 2012. “pengembangan sektor-sektor ekonomi di tiap kecamatan di kabupaten magelang”. economic development analysis journal arsyad, l, 1999. pengantar perencanaan dan pembangunan ekonomi daerah. bpfe ugm. yogyakarta. basuki, a.t & gayatri, u. 2009. “penentuan sektor unggulan dalam pembangunan daerah”. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan, vol 10, no.1. bps maluku. 2016. “maluku dalam angka 2016. badan pusat statistik provinsi maluku”. ambon gunawan. 2011. “analisis sektor-sektor unggulan perekonomian kabupaten rembang tahun 2000-2008”. institut pertanian bogor. j. heilbrun 1987. “urban ecomics”, new york “st. martin press kuncoro, m. 2004. “otonomi dan pembangunan daerah”. jakarta: erlangga marlina, y. 2014. “analisis sektor unggulan dalam perekonomian kota bogor periode 2006-2012”. fakultas ekonomi dan manajemen institut pertanian bogor setyorini, g.d & gunawan., r.s. 2008. “identifikasi pengembangan wilayah kabupaten anggota lembaga regional barlingmascakeb”. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan tarigan, r. 2005. “ekonomi regional (teori dan aplikasi)”. jakarta: pt bumi aksara jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 23 no 1, april 2022 article type: research paper determining competitiveness of indonesian export commodities using revealed comparative analysis suparmono1*, edi suandana2, and fauzan ilmas2 abstract: this article aims to analyze indonesian products’ competitiveness in the global market using the static revealed comparative advantage (srca) and the dynamic revealed comparative advantage (drca). drca is considered superior to rca because it takes into account the time element. the current research combines drca and rca to provide an analytical comparison. the data were collected from the international trade centre, classified according to the harmonized system (hs) from 2013 to 2019. using srca, indonesia’s tin and articles’ competitiveness only contributes 0.95% of indonesia's total exports. the most significant shares of exports are mineral fuels, mineral oils, and their distillation products; bituminous substances; animal or vegetable fats and oils, and their cleavage products; and prepared edible fats. using drca, indonesia’s most significant exports in the rising star category are natural rubber and its derivatives; cars and other motorized vehicles; fatty acids and their derivatives; lignite; unforged lead; ferroalloys; wires and cables; refined copper; petroleum and minerals; and margarine and its derivatives. these products showed positive growth higher than the global average, which means indonesia is competitive in exporting these products. thus, the government could prioritize these products for export. keywords: competitiveness; static rca; dynamic rca; trade specialization; commodities jel classification: f12; f14; b27 introduction indonesia’s export products’ competitiveness has been declining in the past decades; for example, non-oil and gas exports declined by 15.38 percent from 2011 to 2019, with the most significant drop being 16% in 2018 (khaliqi, gurning, novanda, & simamora, 2020). meanwhile, primary products from logging, low-technology manufacturing and processing become key commodities. these products dominate the market but they have little added value. likewise, agricultural products are predominant but have low added value compared to non-agricultural products. therefore, increasing competitiveness is important for improving the trade balance’s performance and global development ranking (erkan & aybudak, 2019). affiliation: 1 department of management, sekolah tinggi ilmu manajemen yayasan keluarga pahlawan negara, special region of yogyakarta, indonesia 2 senior researcher sinergi visi utama consulting, special region of yogyakarta, indonesia *correspondence: suparmono@stimykpn.ac.id this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v23i1.13557 citation: suparmono, s., suandana, e., & ilmas, f. (2022). determining competitiveness of indonesian export commodities using revealed comparative analysis. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 23(1), 66-80. article history received: 31 dec 2021 revised: 14 feb 2022 07 apr 2022 accepted: 08 apr 2022 https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=5utzutqaaaaj&hl=en https://stimykpn.ac.id/ https://stimykpn.ac.id/ https://stimykpn.ac.id/ https://stimykpn.ac.id/ https://stimykpn.ac.id/ https://sinergivisiutama.com/ https://sinergivisiutama.com/ https://sinergivisiutama.com/ mailto:suparmono@stimykpn.ac.id http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/13557 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v23i1.13557&domain=pdf suparmono, suandana, & ilmas determining competitiveness of indonesian export commodities … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 67 competitiveness, in general, is the capacity to manufacture goods and services that satisfy the foreign market’s criteria and offer increased and long-term quality of life (bernardini papalia, calia, & filippucci, 2014). while product-level comparative advantage in aggregated trade flows in a general theoretical framework, trade costs are estimated using pooled product-level trade data (french, 2017) (shahzad, 2015). macro-economic variables, such as inflation, unemployment, interest rate, tax rate, and economic growth rate, are important in enabling a country to compete in today’s global market. however, these variables alone will not suffice (łapińska, huterska, zdunek-rosa, & huterski, 2020) because competitiveness is not only about the quantity but also the density-dependent factors of the exported product (ćorović, gligorijević, & manasijević, 2019). this study aims to determine indonesian products that are competitive in international trade using the revealed comparative advantage (srca) and dynamic revealed comparative advantage (drca) approaches. rca analysis can accurately describe product competitiveness in the international market (shahzad, 2015). past research has examined competitiveness using one of the two approaches (khaliqi et al., 2020). for example, the rca approach (qiao & ma, 2015) predicts the competitiveness of chinese products in the global market, revealing a significant shift in competitiveness from time to time. in indonesia, another empirical study shows that from 2015 to 2019, the competitiveness of indonesia's export products consisted of five main food and beverage products (abdullah & rosjadi, 2021). meanwhile, the average rca of livestock, light and heavy industrial products had low competitiveness. another study uses rca combined with other variables, i.e., price, gdp, the number of workers, and capital (liew, arip, & puah, 2021). the result indicates a short-run dynamic impact on competitiveness from these variables. to increase competitiveness, the study suggests intensifying economic policies by focusing on downstream products and taking advantage of the comparative advantage in the upstream industries. product competitiveness in international trade can also be determined by using a combination of revealed comparative profit (rca), relative export advantage (rxa), relative import advantage (rma), relative trade advantage (rta), and relative competitiveness index (rc). the result shows that competitiveness is highly responsive to economic crises and local currency exchange rates (erdem, 2020). a combination of the rca and trade specialization index approach (tsi) has also been used to assess the competitiveness of indonesian rubber products in the global market (daulika, peng, & hanani, 2020). the results indicate that the factors affecting indonesian natural rubber exports prices are international rubber prices, exchange rates, and domestic consumption. the rca analysis shows that indonesia's natural rubber exports are highly competitive in the international market. a major advantage of using the rca index is that it can determine competitiveness by country, product, and period. for example, combined with the index of contribution to the trade balance (ctb), rca can reveal a country’s strengths and weaknesses compared to other countries (laursen, 2015) (granabetter, 2016) (bioeconomy malaysia report, 2015) (shahzad, 2015) (stellian & danna-buitrago, 2019) (safi et al, 2022). however, the existing research analyzes competitiveness mostly using one rca tool, although suparmono, suandana, & ilmas determining competitiveness of indonesian export commodities … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 68 considering some factors in macroeconomic indicators such as global and national economic policies (caliendo, dvorkin, & parro, 2019). to extend the existing body of research, the current study combines static rca and dynamic rca (drca) to examine indonesian goods’ competitiveness in the international market. in addition, all groups of goods in the hs index are analyzed to reveal the export competitiveness. the findings are expected to inform the government in developing export strategies, e.g., prioritizing superior products identified in this study. likewise, for business actors, the findings in this study can provide direction and an overview of competitive products to be exported. competitiveness definition is more complex than the various meanings often used to describe the circumstances. competitiveness, in general, is the capacity to manufacture goods and services that satisfy the foreign market’s criteria and offer increased and longterm quality of life (bernardini papalia et al., 2014). meanwhile, revealed comparative advantage is a key concept in international economics. it determines trade flows, so we can use trade flows to compute an index that reveals comparative advantages (stellian & danna-buitrago, 2019). export product dynamic (epd) is not as robust as rca because it can only determine the position of a commodity in a certain destination market. this position is not effective in determining the competitiveness of a country's products. even if the analysis is combined with the ordinary least squares method (ols), the results will only affect other variables, such as gdp per capita, export prices, and the real exchange rate of the destination country (fauziah, riniati, & wibisono, 2021). another approach used to determine competitiveness is relative export advantage (rxa), which is complimentary to rca. the analysis can cover a group of countries and many manufacturing industries. in other words, this approach will result in a more general competitive advantage mapping, unlike the specific result generated by rca (stellian & danna-buitrago, 2019). meanwhile, constant market share (cms) is considered a widely used index due to its ease of use and intuitiveness (cinquetti, 2018). this model links export growth to structural strength or competitiveness. however, it is only relevant to the domestic competitiveness structure, which could be biased when compared to other countries (aguiar et al., 2017). competitiveness in international trade can also be measured by the trade intensity index (tii), which describes the bilateral trade against total international trade. tii can also show trade intensity, referred to as the intra and extra trade. this index is used to measure whether a trade value between two countries is higher (or smaller) than expected, based on the importance of the world trade. an index value higher than 1 indicates an intense trade level between the exporting country and the partner country compared to their trade with the rest of the world (constantinescu & panagoret, 2017). nevertheless, this approach can only measure competitiveness between two countries, so it is not comprehensive (khaliqi, gurning, novanda, & simamora, 2020) (benalywa, ismail, shamsudin, & yusop, 2019). suparmono, suandana, & ilmas determining competitiveness of indonesian export commodities … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 69 overall, it could be concluded that the rca method is more robust than other approaches—such as export product dynamic (epd), relative export advantage (rxa), constant market share (cms), and trade intensity index (tii)—to measure product competitiveness in the international trade. additionally, using a dynamic approach will capture not only the types of products gaining competitiveness in the international market but also the map of product competitiveness. indonesia's competitiveness index reached 4.68 in 2017/2018, which increased from 4.51 in 2016/2017. the decline in the competitiveness index occurred in 2014-2016. the competitiveness ranking then recovered in 2016/2017, increasing from rank 41 to rank 36 globally. in the same year, india declined from rank 39 to rank 40 and singapore from rank 2 to rank 3. in 2010-2019, the indonesian national economy grew by 5.39% per year. this growth rate is high considering the stagnant regional and global economies. on a regional level, using the 2010-2019 constant price grdp data in that period, central sulawesi province showed the highest average economic growth of 9.48% per year. meanwhile, east kalimantan province showed the lowest average economic growth, only 2.41% per year. using geometric average, all provinces’ average economic growth reached 5.50%. the economic growth in the provinces can be seen in figure 1. figure 1 comparison of average economic growth 2010-2019 inter-provinces in indonesia comparison between provinces can be shown through the economic sectoral competitiveness review using lq, which indicates that the values of the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sectors in almost all provinces were > 1. out of 34 provinces, only nine provinces show lq scores < 1. the highest value for these sectors was shown by west sulawesi, at 3.0799. this implies west sulawesi’s output was higher than the national average and has great potential to be exported. nevertheless, judging from the value of the global value chain (gvc) in 2019, indonesia's participation in the global chain was still low, at 43.5—below the average developing countries’ participation, at 48.5. malaysia’s index was considerably higher, reaching 60.8, followed by thailand (54.3) and china (47.7). this index indicates a country's involvement 2,57 5,685,81 2,80 5,916,03 5,46 4,99 5,615,80 6,18 5,29 6,075,775,92 5,21 6,42 4,38 5,265,085,39 6,79 2,41 5,23 7,15 7,957,71 9,48 8,02 6,336,06 6,45 4,30 4,66 suparmono, suandana, & ilmas determining competitiveness of indonesian export commodities … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 70 in the production of goods. the production value chain involves many other countries, including design and development, raw material input, selection and assembly, physical transformation and processing, acquisition of required services such as transportation and financing, and responses to consumer demand. the value of the global value chain (gvc) in 2019 can be seen in figure 2. indonesia's participation in the vgc is the most significant in the mining industry, wholesale and retail trade, and agriculture, with three major recipient countries of the input goods being china, south korea, and malaysia. indonesia’s main production is intermediate goods, rebought after becoming finished goods. the low level of indonesia's participation in the vgc is because the country is still dependent on agricultural and mining product exports, which do not provide significant added value. besides, the manufacturers of general items, which call for low-cost labor, mostly take place in lowwage countries, including china, indonesia, india, vietnam, and korea. the added value of this process is low, lagging behind advanced nations—such as italy, germany, and japan—which produce high value-added and high-end products (son, 2014). figure 2 indonesia's gvc compared to several countries research method this study uses secondary data obtained from the world trade organization (2019) and the international trade center (2019). the data consist of annual time series trade data of indonesian products from 2013 to 2019. the data processing uses static and dynamic revealed comparative advantage (rca). calculating the competitiveness of indonesian export products is done by comparing the share of domestic and export destination countries. this is important so that the government’s strategies can focus on highly competitive products. the data’s timeframe is limited to 2019 to avoid the influence of the covid-19 pandemic on the indonesian and the global economies, whose landscapes have been reshaped since 2020. past studies have highlighted the determinants of export competitiveness by calculating comparative advantage using the rca balassa index (irsahd & xin, 2017). the rca indices use the trade trend to classify industries with a competitive advantage by contrasting the 31,5 19,8 15,4 38,1 19,1 15,6 23,1 12 40,6 39 13,7 24 32,1 25,5 43,5 60,4 54,3 51,8 43,1 47,7 48,6 0 50 100 150 indonesia malaysia thailand rusia india china develpoing countries forward participation backward participation participation index suparmono, suandana, & ilmas determining competitiveness of indonesian export commodities … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 71 trading profile of the country of interest with the world average (hossain, dechun, zhang, & van, 2017). following the previous studies, this study looks at the profitability of exports using the balassa index (balassa, 1965), developed by balassa, who also established liesner 's principle (1958). the index measures comparative export advantages based on the ricardian exchange theory, using the following equation (falkowski, 2017): 𝑅𝐶𝐴𝑖𝑗 = ( 𝑋𝑖𝑗 𝑋𝑖𝑡 ) / ( 𝑋𝑛𝑗 𝑋𝑛𝑡 ) where x reflects the export flows from a given country j, of a given sector or commodity i; t is a product group, and n is a country group. a recorded export comparative advantage (or disadvantage) index is calculated by comparing the export share of total export globally with the export share of a comparable category from the total exports in the country group (łapińska et al., 2020). the rca index’s interpretation is straightforward (obadi, 2016). if the index value is greater than 1, the country has a disclosed competitive advantage, i.e., fairly skilled in producing and selling the commodity. suppose the value is 0 < rca <1, the country has a comparative disadvantage (oelgemöller, 2013). established competition exchange metrics such as the rca index and the published competition index (rc) show the international competitiveness of the industries being evaluated (figiel & kufel, 2013). meanwhile, dynamic revealed comparative advantage (drca) measures the dynamic analysis of rca’s changes by separating the factors causing its growth (hossain et al., 2017). the advantage of drca is that it can identify product advantages over time and explain product position in the export destination market. this is done by categorizing each product based on its position in the destination market. therefore, the drca can better explain changes in competitiveness than rca in general, especially to identify what products are experiencing an increase or loss of market share. in other words, drca can provide policy recommendations for products by considering the export market conditions. essentially, a product that experiences an increase in rca value is not necessarily categorized as a product with good export performance and vice versa. there is a typically balanced relationship in bilateral trade. a particular industry and year can be decomposed into 1) an export-fixed effect industry, which measures the country’s export potential in the industry; 2) a fixed importer-industry effect, which captures the effective demand of the importing country for foreign goods in the industry; 3) an exporterimporter portion, which accounts for bilateral trade frictions (hanson, lind, & muendler, 2016). xi, j = export of commodity j from the country i to the destination market (region or world); xm, j = export of commodity j from the region or the world to the destination market. suppose the rca value increases due to an increase in the origin country’s export suparmono, suandana, & ilmas determining competitiveness of indonesian export commodities … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 72 share, which is higher than that of the destination country. in that case, the commodity is considered a rising star. conversely, suppose the export share in the origin countries rises not as much as the market share’s rise in the destination countries. in that case, the rca value will decrease, and the commodity is considered unable to take advantage of the increase in market size (siggel, 2006). a product with an increased rca value may be considered a ‘falling star’ if the increase in rca is only due to a decrease in the destination’s market share, which equals the downsizing of the overall market share. the position of export competitiveness in rca is shown in figure 3. figure 3 the position of export competitiveness in rca result and discussion based on the static revealed comparative advantage (rca), the competitiveness level of indonesian export, from hs2, 30 groups of goods out of 99 groups had a value of > 1. the first rank with the highest rca value in 2013-2019 was the tin and articles’ group (coded hs79). the high value indicates that indonesian exports to the world were highly competitive. indonesia can dominate the world market for goods of the same type. the competitiveness of these goods increased slightly to 28.14 in 2017 from 27.52 in 2013. indonesia's export competitiveness in 2017 was animal/vegetable fats and oils worth us$ 8,373.2 million. the year-on-year (y-o-y) comparison shows that there was a decrease in exports of animal/vegetable fats and oils by 15.66% from the previous value of us$ 9,928 million. animal/vegetable fats and oils is one of the top ten asean leading export commodities (astrini & azzakiyyah, 2018). meanwhile, the exports performance of rubber and its processed products in 2021 grew by around 5.0% y-o-y, in line with the projected increase in world oil prices. this increase reflects a rebound in demand from major world countries other than china, which previously plunged. in addition, rubber commodities were also expected to receive a positive sentiment from oil prices as the opec+ members were committed to maintaining their prices by reducing supply until at least the first half of 2021 (indonesia exim bank, 2021). leading lagging retreat lagging opportunity rising star falling star lost opportunity p ro d u ct sh a re g ro w th in -co u n try e xp o rts i product share growth in the country's export destination markets : rca down : rca up suparmono, suandana, & ilmas determining competitiveness of indonesian export commodities … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 73 in 2013-2019, nine out of the 30 groups of goods showed a decrease in competitiveness, even though the decline was minimal. the most significant decrease occurred in the group of ores, slags, and ashes (coded hs26), equal to -1.12. meanwhile, competitiveness increased most significantly in vegetable plaiting materials and products not elsewhere specified or included, with a value of 11.02. in the second place was the group of animal/vegetable fats and oils and their cleavage products and prepared edible fats, with an increase of 3.95. exported goods group with rca> 1 is shown in table 1. table 1 exported goods group with rca> 1 no product label 2013 2019 +/ 1 tin and articles thereof 27.52 28.14 0.62 2 animal or vegetable fats and oils and their cleavage products; prepared edible fats; animal 20.14 24.10 3.95 3 musical instruments; parts and accessories of such articles 8.49 9.11 0.62 4 vegetable plaiting materials; vegetable products not elsewhere specified or included 4.64 15.67 11.02 5 man-made staple fibers 5.87 5.94 0.07 6 prepared feathers and down and articles made of feathers or down; artificial flowers; articles 3.98 5.63 1.65 7 the pulp of wood or other fibrous cellulosic material; recovered (waste and scrap) paper 4.13 5.27 1.14 8 coffee, tea, maté, and spices 4.48 3.93 -0.55 9 rubber and articles thereof 4.69 4.36 -0.32 10 footwear, gaiters, and the like; parts of such articles 3.10 3.56 0.45 11 nickel and articles thereof 3.36 3.33 -0.02 12 manufactures of straw, of esparto, or other plaiting materials; basketware and wickerwork 3.40 3.21 -0.18 13 wood and articles of wood; wood charcoal 2.89 3.05 0.16 14 fish and crustaceans, mollusks, and other aquatic invertebrates 2.82 2.85 0.03 15 cocoa and cocoa preparations 2.72 2.37 -0.35 16 tobacco and manufactured tobacco substitutes 2.12 2.84 0.71 17 man-made filaments; strips, and the like of man-made textile materials 2.59 2.11 -0.47 18 paper and paperboard; articles of paper pulp, paper, or paperboard 2.26 2.44 0.18 19 preparations of meat, fish or crustaceans, mollusks, or other aquatic invertebrates 2.05 1.99 -0.05 20 miscellaneous chemical products 2.14 2.14 0.00 21 mineral fuels, mineral oils, and products of their distillation; bituminous substances; mineral 1.80 1.96 0.15 22 articles of apparel and clothing accessories, not knitted or crocheted 1.94 1.89 -0.05 23 ores, slag, and ash 2.74 1.51 -1.22 24 soap, organic surface-active agents, washing preparations, lubricating preparations, artificial 1.87 1.88 0.00 25 articles of apparel and clothing accessories, knitted or crocheted 1.56 1.72 0.15 26 cotton 1.19 1.51 0.32 27 miscellaneous edible preparations 1.09 1.54 0.45 28 copper and articles thereof 1.08 1.46 0.37 29 preparations of cereals, flour, starch, or milk; pastrycooks' products 1.03 1.43 0.40 30 lac; gums, resins, and other vegetable saps and extracts 0.96 1.38 0.41 suparmono, suandana, & ilmas determining competitiveness of indonesian export commodities … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 74 based on these static rca measurements, many indonesian products could be considered highly competitive in the international market. however, the use of high technology in export-oriented goods remains low. the tin and articles group thereof in 2018 turned out to only contribute to the export value of 0.95% of indonesia's total exports. the most significant share of exports was the group of mineral fuels, mineral oils, and products of their distillation, bituminous substances, and minerals, with the value of 21.84%, followed by the group of animal/vegetable fats and oils and their cleavage products, prepared edible fats, and animals, at 13.60%. both of these groups showed an rca value of > 1. goods with a reasonably large export share but having an rca below 1 were those in the group of electrical machinery and equipment, sound recorders and reproducers, and television at 5.01%, but the rca value was only 0.34 in 2017. this indicates that electrical machinery products were in tight competition in the international market. the group of fish and crustaceans, mollusks, and other aquatic invertebrates remained stable during the pandemic, as fish remained a healthy diet option. in addition, indonesia benefited from the us and europe markets china could not enter at the beginning of the year because of the import bans. fishery export performance in 2019 grew by 3.9% y-o-y, increasing by 17.0% y-o-y in the third quarter. exports of fish and crustaceans, mollusks, and other aquatic invertebrates were projected to decrease in the fourth quarter of 2020 due to the based-effect of the fourth quarter of 2019. however, the actual performance every quarter showed an increase. in 2021, fisheries exports were still highly prospective, and indonesia found its niche market in the us, european and japanese markets (indonesia exim bank, 2021). based on the dynamic rca level of indonesian export using more detailed hs4 standards, 10 out of 30 commodity groups with the most significant export value could be categorized as the rising star commodities, namely hs 4001 (natural rubber and its derivatives), hs 8703 (cars and other motorized vehicles), hs 3823 (fatty acids and their derivatives for the industry), hs 2702 (lignite), hs 8001 (unforged lead), hs 7202 (ferroalloys), hs 8544 (wire, cable, and the like), hs 7403 (refined copper), hs 2710 (petroleum oils and mineral oils), and hs 1517 (margarine and its derivatives). this indicates that in 2015-2019, these products showed positive growth both in indonesia and internationally, but growth in indonesia was higher than the growth of similar products globally. these goods improved the share of world exports in 2015-2019. also, there are products in the ‘falling star’ category, such as hs 4703, hs 4802, and hs 7108. this indicates that although indonesia's export in 2015-2017 increased, the world growth in these products decreased. as for the ‘lost opportunity’ category, four types of products in the hs 2709, hs 2603, hs8708, and hs 0901 groups showed that indonesia could not respond optimally to the export demand for these products. this is despite the fact that exports of these products increased globally, prompted by internal or external factors. in other words, the country needs to revisit its market share strategies and reduce its dependence on certain destination countries. future studies can look into this area in more depth. suparmono, suandana, & ilmas determining competitiveness of indonesian export commodities … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 75 table 2 commodity plotting based on competitiveness group year rising star falling star lagging retreat lost opportunity leading retreat lagging opportunity 2014 02, 03, 05, 06, 07, 08, 14, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 30, 32, 33, 38, 39, 44, 45, 46, 48, 53, 54, 55, 56, 58, 59, 64, 66, 69, 72, 73, 75, 78, 81, 83, 84, 87, 90, 92,96, 99 10, 12, 13, 15, 16, 17, 28, 29, 37, 50, 52, 70, 71, 74, 93 01, 04, 09, 11, 25, 34, 36, 41, 42, 47, 49, 76, 80, 82, 85, 86, 88, 91, 95, 97 26, 27, 31, 40, 43, 51, 89 18, 35, 57, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 79, 94 2015 07, 08, 09, 14, 15, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 24, 25, 28, 30, 32, 33, 35, 42, 43, 44, 46, 47, 48, 52, 53, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 64, 65, 67, 68, 70, 71, 73, 78, 79, 81, 82, 86, 87, 88, 92, 96, 99 02, 05, 06, 10, 13, 26, 49, 72 27, 36, 41, 80 11, 12, 16, 31, 37, 38, 39, 45, 51, 76, 83, 89, 90, 91, 93, 97 01, 04, 17, 23, 29, 40, 50, 74, 75 03, 34, 54, 63, 66, 84, 85, 94, 95 2016 03, 12, 14, 16, 19, 21, 22, 26, 32, 33, 34, 35, 37, 38, 39, 45, 56, 57, 59, 61, 63, 64, 65, 71, 79, 84, 87, 90, 96, 99 04, 05, 23, 25, 28, 29, 31, 42, 43, 51, 67, 69, 72, 74, 86, 89, 91, 97 41, 52, 66, 75 02, 06, 07, 08, 09, 11, 18, 20, 40, 47, 48, 60, 68, 70, 78, 82, 83, 85, 88, 94, 95 10, 27, 36, 46, 49, 50, 53, 54, 55, 58, 73, 76, 80, 81, 93 01, 13, 15, 17, 24, 30, 44, 62, 92 2017 04, 15, 28, 40, 47, 72, 74, 76, 78, 79, 80 08, 11, 14, 19, 20, 25, 29, 38, 42, 45, 50, 91, 93, 97 01, 07, 13, 23, 34, 48, 61, 68, 87 24, 26, 33, 43, 67, 85, 86, 95 02, 03, 06, 09, 10, 12, 16, 17, 18, 21, 22, 30, 31, 32, 35, 36, 37, 39, 41, 44, 46, 49, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 69, 70, 71, 73, 75, 82, 83, 84, 88, 89, 90, 92, 94, 96, 99 05, 27, 81 2018 13, 21, 23, 25, 28, 31, 33, 38, 39, 44, 46, 53, 72, 73, 76, 81 10, 12, 14, 16, 17, 18, 22, 26, 35, 36, 37, 42, 48, 49, 50, 59, 61, 62, 65, 66, 70, 79, 82, 87, 88, 93, 95, 96, 99 01, 04, 07, 19, 24, 41, 55, 60, 71, 80, 91, 92 05, 29, 30, 45, 67, 69, 74, 84, 97 02, 03, 06, 08, 09, 11, 15, 20, 32, 34, 40, 43, 51, 52, 54, 55, 57, 58, 63, 64, 68, 78, 83, 85, 86, 89, 90, 94 27, 47, 75 2019 08, 10, 11, 12, 13, 15, 16, 19, 21, 22, 23, 28, 30, 33, 34, 38, 40, 64, 67, 71, 72, 74, 75, 78, 79, 80, 81 14, 17, 24, 32, 35, 47, 53, 56, 87, 88, 89, 91, 99 48, 50, 55, 57, 92 18, 20, 26, 27, 31, 39, 42, 63, 65, 68, 73, 83, 85, 86, 90, 93, 94 01, 02, 03, 04, 06, 07, 25, 29, 36, 37, 41, 43, 44, 45, 46, 49, 51, 52, 54, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 66, 69, 70, 76, 82, 84, 95, 97 05, 09, 96 suparmono, suandana, & ilmas determining competitiveness of indonesian export commodities … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 76 table 2 shows the position of competitiveness of indonesian products in the export market. during 2014 to 2016 the grouping of product competitiveness in the rising star quadrant and a significant decline in 2017 and continued until 2019. on the other hand, during 2017 to 2019 the competitiveness of indonesian export products decreased, which was marked by a shift from rising star to leading retreat. this decline in competitiveness must be the government's attention to encourage the competitiveness of export products, especially for each type of product in that quadrant. the demand for cocoa and cocoa preparations, which are categorized as food ingredients, was relatively stable from year to year. many food products use cocoa as the basic ingredients. in addition, exports of cocoa and processed cocoa benefitted from the world cocoa prices, which had increased since 2018. at the end of 2019, cocoa export performance only recorded a decline in exports of 2.8% y-o-y but did not experience a contraction. this weakening was due to the covid-19 outbreak in almost all countries (indonesia exim bank, 2021). using two analytical tools, rca and drca, there are two types of competitive products produced in indonesia. analyzed by the two analytical tools, only the group of mineral fuels, mineral oils, and products of their distillation products are competitive in the international market. fishery products showed an increasing export trend and competitiveness in the international market in 2000-2018 (wicaksono, sutandi, & tembo, 2020). this finding shows that the competitive rca products in the international market are naturally resourced commodities produced using medium and low technology. the drca results also show that the products with export opportunities are also naturally resourced, i.e., oils. conclusion some indonesian export products are competitive and have the potential to seize opportunities in the international market, but these are mostly naturally resourced. in addition, these products may lose their competitiveness when other countries produce similar products but with more modern technology. in the future, indonesia must encourage the export of products that do not entirely depend on natural resources. preprocessing using modern technology should be a priority to give added value to the products to compete in the international market. the results showed that the major shares of exports calculated by srca are: a) the group of mineral fuels, mineral oils, and distillation products; b) bituminous substances; stones, category of goods, animal/vegetable fats and oils and their cleavage products; processed edible fats; livestock. meanwhile, drca showed that there are ten groups in the rising star category, namely natural rubber and its derivatives, cars and other motorized vehicles, fatty acids and their derivatives for industry, lignite, unforged lead, ferroalloys, wires, cables, and the like, refined copper, petroleum oil and mineral oil, margarine and its derivatives. this indicates that in 2015-2019 these products grew both in indonesia and in the world, but the growth in indonesia was higher than the global market. suparmono, suandana, & ilmas determining competitiveness of indonesian export commodities … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 77 from the results of the srca and drca calculations, it can be seen that from 2013 to 2019, the competitiveness of indonesian products in the world trade experienced a shift. this shows that indonesia's competitiveness is not always consistent in the world market due to various aspects, such as commodity price volatility and indonesia's dependence on imported products. however, the key takeaway is that the competitive indonesian products are dependent on natural resources and processed using low technology, which results in low added value and is highly susceptible to the price instability in the world market. the calculation of product competitiveness in international trade showed that agriculture products and those processed using medium and low technology are competitive. aside from expanding the market share, a strategy that the government can benefit from is increasing exports of goods and services based on the analysis of the global production chain. the current study also shows that potential destination countries are not aligned with each indonesian product’s competitiveness. in other words, indonesia will get more advantage if it exports a competitive product to the correct destination country. the findings in this study suggest the ministry of trade of the republic of indonesia increase export market access through 1) strengthening market intelligence; 2) accelerating negotiations and settlements; 3) conducting economic diplomacy for safeguarding, deepening, and expanding export markets; 4) integrating promotion and trade missions, buying missions, exhibition participation, and positive campaigns for indonesian products; 5) establishment of indonesian international cooperation funding agencies; and 6) repositioning and strengthening the roles of trade representatives abroad. in addition, there should be integration in marketing networks and production chains through 1) increasing independence, competitiveness, and standards of export products; 2) increased participation in global production network (gpn) and global value chains (vgc); 3) strengthening export support infrastructure (including logistics); 4) increasing the continuity and standardization of products from upstream to downstream; and 5) strengthening logistics management institutions. finally, the government should also increase the added value of export products through 1) diversification of export products, specially manufactured products with medium-high technology; 2) increasing service exports; and 3) assistance and facilitation of small and medium industries with export orientation. acknowledgment the author would like to thank sekolah tinggi ilmu manajemen ykpn yogyakarta for funding this research; the national development planning agency (bappenas) of the republic of indonesia for providing data and information; and sinergi visi utama consulting for providing journal references and access. suparmono, suandana, & ilmas determining competitiveness of indonesian export commodities … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 78 references abdullah, r. & rosjadi, i. 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student, master of islamic studies, faculty of islamic studies, islamic university of indonesia, yogyakarta 55281, indonesia 2lecturer, faculty of islamic studies, islamic university of indonesia, yogyakarta 55281, indonesia correspondence e-mail: mimitari92@gmail.com received: july 2017, accepted: october 2017 abstract: the rapid growth of small and medium-sized enterprises sector (smes) in indonesia increases business competition become strict and complicate among them. competition of existing businesses tends to be unhealthy and ignore the ethical values. it makes the discourse of business ethics at smes is indispensable in order to form the basis for operations and avoid deviations ethical values. as a manufacturer of fish processing has been certified halal by the mui, smes xyz should be able to apply islamic business ethics in its activities. so it is not only profit oriented, but also pay attention to ethical values. this study aimed to describe the implementation of islamic business ethics which consists of four (4) axioms which are unity, equilibrium, free will, and responsibility in smes xyz. the method used in this research is descriptive qualitative analysis through the 4 (four) stages of data collection, data reduction, data display, and conclusion. the result in this study is smes xyz was implemented islamic business ethics on its operations. keywords: business competition, islamic business ethics, smes jel classification: m21, z12, p31 abstrak: pesatnya pertumbuhan sektor usaha kecil dan menengah (ukm) di indonesia meningkatkan persaingan usaha menjadi ketat dan kompleks di antara mereka. persaingan bisnis yang ada cenderung tidak sehat dan mengabaikan nilai etika. hal itu membuat wacana etika bisnis di kalangan ukm sangat diperlukan agar bisa membentuk pondasi untuk beroperasi dan menghindari penyimpangan nilai etika. sebagai produsen pengolahan ikan yang telah mendapat sertifikasi halal oleh mui, ukm xyz harus bisa menerapkan etika bisnis syariah dalam aktivitasnya. jadi tidak hanya berorientasi pada keuntungan, tapi juga memperhatikan nilai etika. penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mendeskripsikan penerapan etika bisnis syariah yang terdiri dari empat (4) prinsip, yaitu kesatuan, ekuilibrium, keinginan untuk bebas, dan tanggung jawab di ukm xyz. metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah analisis deskriptif kualitatif melalui 4 (empat) tahap pengumpulan data, reduksi data, tampilan data, dan kesimpulan. hasil dalam penelitian ini adalah ukm xyz menerapkan etika bisnis islam dalam operasinya. kata kunci: persaingan bisnis, etika bisnis syariah, ukm klasifikasi jel: m21, z12, p31 156 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 2, oktober 2017: 155-163 introduction indonesia, which is one of the developing countries continue to perform various economic activities to support the sustainability of national development. growing smes in indonesia contribute to the national economy. according to irfan that small and medium-sized enterprises sector (smes) in the economy of a country plays an important role.1 indication that the strategic role of small and medium micro enterprises that can be seen from its contribution to gdp, non-oil exports, employment, and improving the quality of human resources is significant. as a country which has a muslim majority population, the indonesian government gives special attention to smes in particular domestic products with the halal certificate from mui. as we know that islam justifies the trade, commerce and or purchase and therein also entered the business.2 efforts to address the deviation values in modern business practices, business ethics has long appeared be explored in greater depth in islamic literatures. business ethics becomes talk of interest in line with the growth and development of business competition. on an international scale, the researchers measure of business ethics in the european region through business ethics index. the study was conducted by john tsalikis and bruce seaton (2007)3, namely: the study expands the systematic measurement of consumers' sentiments towards ethical business practices to the international arena, the data for the business ethics index (bei) were gathered in three countries of the european union (uk, germany, spain). 1 irfan, muhammad, prinsip-prinsip perumusan kebijakan negara, (jakarta: sinar grafik, 2000) 2 johan arifin, etika bisnis islam, (semarang:walisongo press, 2009), pg. 81. 3 john tsalikis and bruce seaton (2007), “the international business ethics index: european union”, journal of business ethic, pp. 229-238 in the view of islam, more commonly is known ethical behavior.4 virtue is one of the three basic frameworks of islamic teachings. morals have a very important position because of morality is the fruit produced from the process of applying aqidah and shariah. like a building, morality is the perfection of the building after the building foundation and strong. the scope of morals is very broad, covering all aspects of human life both vertically to god, as well as horizontally. yunahar ilyas modify the scope of morals over into several parts, namely5: the morals of allah swt, the character of the prophet muhammad, the personal morals, morals in the family, social morals, and morals state. the sections within the scope of morals are promoted by yunahar ilyas is the specialization of the scope of the very broad character. in this study, the authors divide the scope of morals in three parts which are assumed to represent other parts. as previously is disclosed that the character deals with man's relationship with god fellow human beings and nature. morals in islamic business ethics are shown by some business people based on the teachings of islam. indeed, the qur'an has provided a reference for businesses in running or managing an islamic business. according to muhammad djakfar, islamic business ethics are ethical norms-based al-qur'an and hadith should be used as a reference by anyone in business activity.6 in other words, ethics-based business however holy book and the sunnah of the prophet muhammad, as well as modern business ethics, not quite seen partiality alone, but needs to be seen also in its function as a whole (holistic). in the sense of business ethics 4 murti sumarni and john shuprihanto, pengantar bisnis, (yogyakarta: liberty, 1995), pg. 21 5 yunahar ilyas, kuliah..., pg. 6 6 muhammad djakfar, etika bisnis islam, (malang: uin malang press), 2008, pg. 84. implementation of islamic business ethics… (amimah oktarina, amir mu’alim) 157 of islam needs to be positioned as a commodity that can be spawned an academic scientific branch, as well as the guidance of businessmen in performing everyday activities.7 the cornerstone of islamic normative business ethics should contain at least four cornerstone elements in the system of ethics, namely8: unity, equilibrium, free will and responsibility. many people give a definition of the small and medium-sized enterprises (smes). this is because it is not surprising considering that many parties are also interested in the smes so that each of them provides a definition in accordance with the criteria created by itself. however, in this case, the authors take two definitions of small and medium-sized enterprises (smes), known in indonesia, namely the definition under the act (uu) no. 20 in 2008 and the central statistics agency (bps). the role of smes is very strategic and important from many aspects. first, a large number of industry and found in every sector of the economy. second, its great potential is in creating more jobs than the same investment in the business on a bigger scale. thirdly, the contribution of smes to gdp is significant. fourth, have a contribution to foreign exchange with export value stable. one of smes run by muslim businessmen and obtain halal certificate from mui in yogyakarta are smes xyz located in nayan, 18 maguwoharjo. smes xyz is engaged in fish processing which began production in july 2012. the industry is made of many kinds of processed fish-based tilapia. as a manufacturer of fish processing has been certified halal by the mui, smes xyz should be able to apply islamic business ethics in its activities. thus, in the process of implementation of its activities, not only focused on the achievement of profit, but also 7 muhammad djakfar, etika..., pg. 85 8 muslich, etika bisnis…, pg. 30-44 pay attention to ethical values. it is in the spotlight of interest to researchers in the smes is the slogan of "lawful and well". however, the smes xyz have their differences given to the wage system of labor vary from one another even though they have the same task. moreover, the production process is often timeconsuming labor of worship so often labor late for praying. smes xyz also requires the use of the veil for all women workers. the problem is formulated in this research is how the implementation of islamic business ethics at smes xyz? the research objective was to describe the implementation in islamic business ethics at smes xyz. research method this research is a field research as research carried out intensively, detail, and depth to the particular object. the field research is in-depth study of the particular social unit that results of the study provide a broad overview and deep understanding of a particular social unit.9 research sites smes xyz located in solo km 8 jalan dusun nayan, maguwoharjo village, depok, sleman, yogyakarta. upi is built on an area of 200m2. this study chose this because smes xyz is a sme which is recommended by the government of yogyakarta in motion "gemarikan" and the slogan "clean and healthy". smes also as an institution that seeks to empower the community's economic activities around workforce is predominantly muslim. informants informants in this study as many as five (5) persons. 5 of informants are already considered representative to be used as research informants. data collection technique 9 sudarwan danim, menjadi peneliti kualitatif, (bandung: pustaka setia, 2002), pg. 55 158 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 2, oktober 2017: 155-163 primary data were obtained from observations and interviews. the results of the data collection will be used as the primary source in this study. while secondary data in this study are the data obtained from the writings or books that are relevant to the topic of research and support in elaborating the concept of islamic business ethics at smes which will be used as a reference. data analysis technique in answer to the first problem formulation in these study researchers used a model of interactive data analysis by miles and huberman. data analysis model has four stages, namely the first stage of data collection, data reduction the second phase, the third phase of the display data, and the fourth stage inference and data verification. results and discussion unity to know the implementation of islamic business ethics at smes xyz, found that of 5 (five) respondents were interviewed in this study, some of them when prayer time came to do is urge to pray. as revealed by mrs. rini10: "when doing production and had not arrived already reverberating recess while the noon call to prayer, then immediately left for a moment of prayer and production activities. when it has finished the prayers immediately continue the work that was left was to be quieter. " in addition, ms. atun is labor in smes xyz that have job description knead the dough for raw materials to be produced. knead job is a job that is quite heavy because the kneading process is still done manually. therefore, if it is in the process adzan then knead and labor often cannot rush the prayers. in order to facilitate the employment of worship, as a manager and also serve as labor on these smes, mr heri provide worship 10 interview by mrs. rini, yogyakarta, 11 november 2016 facilities in the form of a single special room laid out for a place of worship. according to him11: "the labor work for 8 (eight) hours per day, even though their house located not too far from the location of these smes, but only 1hour rest (hours) used to rest on smes just like eating and prayer. therefore, to support the comfort of prayer it provided a special room for prayer. " availability of worship facilities for workers means that the business makes it easy for workers to worship. additionally, by providing a special room for worship, it will provide comfort for workers to practice their religion. as we know that often the business is run by the setting or the layout on site were nice, but the room for worship only use the rest of the area alone. initiative carried out by workers in smes is to have a special room for worship indicates that as business people who are muslims, then worship is something that must be considered so that the workers also feel calm and comfortable. smes xyz has a workforce that is predominantly muslim. in addition to not leaving prayers in the operation, the workforce has an activity regularly every morning before carrying out the work of prayer. pray before and after work indicates that as a creature of allah, human beings have a vertical relationship to him. everything was done solely for the pleasure of allah swt expect. by praying means that their unconditional surrender of man before god almighty to make wishes, and everything he does on allah's command. in its production activities, tilapia is the main product and mainstay on sme obtained by maintenance done by managers of smes. as revealed by mr. heri that12: "tilapia fish seed is well maintained as a routine feeding and 11 interview by mr. heri, yogyakarta, 11 november 2016 12 interview by mr. heri, yogyakarta, 11 november 2016 implementation of islamic business ethics… (amimah oktarina, amir mu’alim) 159 keeping tilapia where water conditions are maintained. tilapia fish are nurtured to become baby tilapia within two months. the moment has become a baby tilapia then ready to be produced. we chose maintain its own tilapia with no supply of this item to another party for baby tilapia is our flagship product maintains itself more so with guaranteed quality. " as smes engaged in the processing of fish, then fish as a key raw material in the product must be guaranteed quality. sme managers opt to do their own maintenance tilapia fish to be baby tilapia is the right step. this is because it does not want to carelessly in the use of raw materials. moreover, it is well known that often occur sales of fish that are not fit for consumption (rotten). as head of production, ms. ning has a big responsibility towards processed products. therefore, check the ingredients before use is the job he does in addition to preparing the recipe in accordance with the proportion. supplementary materials obtained from suppliers that are trusted. in addition, the use of raw materials such as onions, carrots for mixed product use fresh ingredients. in addition to producing products that are lawful and good, the cornerstone of monotheism as the embodiment of islamic business ethics at smes is also applied by the workforce in allocating their wages. the informants familiar with islamic teachings about charity, infaq, and alms. they also realize that the wages earned there is another man's treasure that must be channeled through the ritual. not only the implementation of the teachings of islam but for them to tithe and infaq will provide peace and blessings for themselves. as a business engaged in the management of fish and has a daily production target, msmes are still watching the welfare of workers by imposing a holiday in operation at the time of celebration of the islamic religion. this means that these smes to actively participate in religious events enliven. in addition, management also provides room for workers to be active in religious activities in the neighborhood. equilibrium in business activities, equilibrium has become known as the foundation should be applied. businesses that do not only involve one party but also many parties such as customers and suppliers should be based on the principle of fairness. according to mrs. rini13: "smes products are sold to consumers are diverse ranging from housewives, traders school snack, and supplying to shopping. many are also consumers who come directly to smes to buy, we treat customers fairly by not discriminating them from, any work, or religion. " justice is a manifestation of horizontal relations among humans. as a business person, be fair must be upheld in order between the parties is not social tension. not only among consumers, among workers also work on the basis of justice. the age difference among the labor is not a reason to discriminate types of duties. in this sme division of labor is clear, but will be flexible if there are workers who are unable to do so. islam requires its adherents to be fair and do well. and even justice must take precedence over doing well. in business, the most fundamental requirements of fair is in determining the quality (quality) and the size (quantity) at any dose or scales. this is what allah says, in the qur’an surah al-an'am: verse 152. in producing the product, the dose of quality and quantity should be fair. products manufactured, will be packed in accordance with the type and severity. the concept of balance is applied by workers in the fish processing smes is a manifestation of the principle of fair promoted by islam in the trade. the products are sold very well maintained and 13 interview by mrs. rini, yogyakarta, 11 november 2016 160 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 2, oktober 2017: 155-163 measuring quality. so, consumers will not do complain to the product. the resulting product is marketed with a friendly price. this means that in setting the price, the smes into account the earnings expectations are not excessive. pricing is done in accordance with the type, quality and product dosing means that smes have applied the principles of justice, especially in making the profit margin. so, although this profit-oriented business, but also pay attention to customer satisfaction with the consideration of appropriate pricing with products. the concept of balance is applied in smes are the remuneration in accordance with the working hours of labor each. no labor within the working hours for permission to specific interests and it becomes a consideration in awarding the amount of his wages. based on these results, it means that smes have applied the concept of fairness in the determination of wages to workers. the big difference in the amount of wages received it because of differences in working hours of labor. tolerance given by the smes to labor for a permit at the time of working hours are also balanced with the consequences in the reception amount of wages. so that feels fair labor between the sallary systems is implemented. free will the production process is carried out by smes upi mino ngudi lestari in producing the fish processed into products processed fish with various kinds of processing based on the stage that has been set forth in the company sop. in producing its products, smes have to apply the principle of efficiency. as we know that if it is associated with the production process of a product, it can be interpreted as an efficient production process that produces a product with good quality with the raw materials used by the correct amount. recipe used on every working day in accordance with the product to be manufactured on the day. in the recipe included the name of the material used and the amount of dose. in addition, the labor force is also concerned about the quality of the materials used for the production in order to produce a quality product. the dose of material that has been set in accordance with a prescription product would interfere with production. accuracy of labor in preparing the materials used for the production is very important. this is because smes xyz required to produce a processed fish product quality. the principle of efficiency in using of production materials is important in the sme workforce. just as a fish fillet preparation done by manpower on a weekly basis. working system applied by smes has been to maximize efficiency in use of resources. by buying the fish and process fish fillet on each weekend, then workers can minimize the use of resources such as a milling machine is done only once (repeatedly). in addition to doing fillet of fish, they do alonely. it’s meaning the amount of spending to buy fish has not been fillet so that they can save expenditure on these smes. when viewed from the values of islamic business ethics, then even though the workforce has the freedom to use the resources in production but still carries the principle of efficiency in order to avoid useless. freedom for labor does not mean they pleased in utilizing existing resources in the business, but remained in the corridors of a special order to manufacture products with high quality and efficient. additionally, as a business person engaged in domestic food industry smes xyz is expected to create a creative innovation in its products. innovation can also trigger businesses to produce better products and competitive. the market demand is also affecting the ability of product innovation for smes. market demand for the products offered can trigger innovation of the product. as well as the smes that provides free space for the workforce to innovate. the benefit is that the products have implementation of islamic business ethics… (amimah oktarina, amir mu’alim) 161 been innovated be accepted by the market and is able to competitiveness. in the perspective of islamic business ethics, product innovation than as a form of realization of the free will of businesses, product innovation is also a manifestation of the increased service needs of the community. as we know that economic activity is individual worship, while producing in this case the product innovation is a social obligation. ethical values shown by smes are to be open to education, especially in the field of research. in addition, smes have also received student interns who want to develop themselves and gain practical knowledge in the field of fish processing. as mentioned above, that these smes often receive guests from various areas that are usually community food industry to share their experiences. not many smes are open to research or academic visits, but smes provide free space for anyone who wants to share the experience and knowledge to visit and see firsthand the production process. smes also estimated specially processed fish travel. responsibility the cornerstone of the responsibility that is part of the foundation of islamic business ethics when reflected in the activities of the business, the business is not only responsible for the work, but the essence of this responsibility more broadly that is accountable to god, others, and the environment. ethical values can be seen from how much sense of responsibility carried by the business. in business, so that its activities can be run well and improve the effectiveness and efficiency of the standard operating procedure (sop) is necessary. sop serves as the standardization of the way performed by workers in completing its tasks. with the sop, the level of errors and omissions can be minimized thus increasing the efficiency and effectiveness of the implementation of the tasks and responsibilities of the workforce as a whole. businesses engaged in fish processing as a raw material and the other mixture ingredients should be mixed in with either susceptible to failure in producing it. therefore, the sop will facilitate labor in performing their duties so that errors can be minimized. in addition, the tools used are also in accordance with its function so that the sop can facilitate manpower to operate these tools in order to function properly. the company apply employment in accordance with sops indicate that the workforce has the responsibility for the job. that is, the works there are standards that must be met and not arbitrary in the act. the use of materials and equipment at the company must be considered because if it is not according to the sop, there will be things that are not desirable, such as accidents. progressed well a business is the application of the rules for labor. this is so that their discipline for workers. regulations in smes is usually made by the manager so that all units in the organization with the work continuously and consistently. smes upi mino ngudi lestari is unique in enforcing regulations for workers. as the fish processing units, these smes impose the use of headscarves for employees during work. in addition, smes have special uniforms obtained from pertamina’s csr. the workers are also required to use a large boot and standardized for the industry and designed safety for workers. the embodiment of the values of responsibility for the businessman indicated to compliance with regulations applicable to the business. regulations made in order to be properly implemented due to the regulations, the business can run with a harmonious, consistent, and the achievement of business goals. however, based on interviews over the smes do not have the strict sanctions for workers who violate the rules. as revealed by labor on top of that they have not seen any sanctions imposed if they violate the rules. 162 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 2, oktober 2017: 155-163 however, the fact that so far, the work force continues to comply with regulations in the smes. types of products are produced on a daily basis requires the dexterity of the workforce in order to take advantage of time as possible so that tasks can be completed on target (quantity) and time. it is a manifestation of the responsibility of businesses to be consistent with the target set within a certain period. so, the time could be used to the maximum with optimal results anyway. the responsibility of a businessman is to convey product information to consumers. in this case, smes engaged in fish processing presents information clearly and what the packaging according to the materials used. labor maintains the quality of products by packaging the product in accordance with standard. this means that the packaging ensured safety guarantee product quality. good quality use of plastic packaging, labeling in accordance with expiry dates, names, and packed with a special machine packing indicates that the workforce has a high sense of responsibility towards the products that will be distributed to consumers. moreover, it is well known, the products that is made from fish meat is very susceptible to cases of fake meat or meat used is not suitable for consumption. however, in this case smes xyz slogan "clean and healthy" on its products this means that smes take full responsibility for halal and health products through the production process does. in the course work problems can arise both internally and externally. however, the problem is not regarded as a source of disharmony in the business. businessman is responsible for solving problems intelligently and wisely. ethical values contained in a business can be seen the extent to which the business is implementing four business ethical foundation of islam in its business activities. the increasingly fierce competition requires businesses undertaken have characteristics that can be added value. smes today have great potential to be developed as a great contribution to the national economy, should carry the ethical values in its business activities. as has been implemented by smes upi xyz as a fish processing unit known in yogyakarta that has been observed from the islamic business ethics, smes have applied foundation of islamic business ethics. conclusion based on the research and discussion above, we can conclude several things, namely smes xyz as a fish processing unit has all the muslim workers and carries the slogan halal and healthy products have been applying islamic business ethics in its business activities. four grounding a benchmark application of business ethics islam is monotheism, balance, free will, and responsibility has been implementation on the business activities of smes xyz. as an answer to the problems interesting in this study is the difference in the wages system for the workforce that embodies the values of islamic business ethics is the cornerstone of balance where the workforce that does permit in during working hours and on an ongoing basis the number of wage cuts. this study examines the application of islamic business ethics in businesses, especially smes are seen as institutions of economic empowerment should be given added value in order to compete so that the results of this study are expected to be input for the business person in applying ethical values in business. references arifin, johan. etika bisnis islam. semarang:walisongo press. 2009 danim, sudarwan. menjadi peneliti kualitatif. bandung: pustaka setia. 2002 djakfar, muhammad. etika bisnis islam. malang: uin malang press. 2008 ilyas, yunahar. kuliah akhlaq. yogyakarta: lppi. 2014 implementation of islamic business ethics… (amimah oktarina, amir mu’alim) 163 irfan, muhammad. prinsip-prinsip perumusan kebijakan negara. jakarta: sinar grafik. 2000 muhammad. etika bisnis islami. yogyakarta : unit penerbit dan percetakan akademi manajemen perusahaan ykpn, 2004 muslich. etika bisnis islami. yogyakarta : ekonisia kampus fe uii, 2004 naqvi, syed nawad haidar. mengagas ilmu ekonomi islam, terj. m. saiful dan muhammad ufuqul mubin. yogyakarta: pustaka pelajar. 2003 sumarni, murti dan john shuprihanto. pengantar bisnis. yogyakarta: liberty. 1995 tsalikis, john and bruce seaton (2007), “the international business ethics index: european union”, journal of business ethic, pp. 229-238 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 2, oktober 2017, hlm. 103-110 doi: 10.18196/jesp.18.2.4020 bridging ecology and economy through islamic ethics of stewardship erin gayatri religion and cross-cultural studies, gadjah mada university jl. teknika utara, pogung, yogyakarta, indonesia, 55281, phone: +62-274-544976 correspondence e-mail: erin.gayatri@mail.ugm.ac.id received: june 2017; accepted: october 2017 abstract: even though it’s originated from the same word oikos, literally means house, the discussion about ecological economics tend to be located in the opposite enterprises. in the abstract level, the discussions about ecology focus on the sustainability and conservation of biodiversity while the economic discourses lean toward the development and growth. furthermore, many environmentalists accuse the thriving economic growth and development lead to ecological calamity. on the other hand, the economics technocrats suspiciously perceive the environmentalist as anti-growth and development. even though islamic classical literatures do not contain the word economy and ecology, yet the discourse about maintaining the limited resources of the earth for human development and growth have already and continuously scrutinized. reflecting from the situations, this paper tries to bridge the tense relation between ecology and economy by elaborating the islamic ethics of stewardship into both field studies. in doing so, the discussion shall begin by examining the field of ecology and economy in order to find common ground between the two. the ways we comprehend ecology in islamic perspectives helps us to refine our understanding and practices in islamic economics, and vice versa, this “green” islamic economy might contribute to enhance our environmental situations. keywords: ecological economics, islamic ethics, stewardship jel classification: q57, z12, q50 abstrak: meskipun berasal dari kata yang sama oikos, secara harfiah berarti rumah, diskusi tentang ekonomi ekologi cenderung berada di perusahaan yang berlawanan. pada tingkat abstrak, diskusi tentang ekologi berfokus pada keberlanjutan dan konservasi keanekaragaman hayati sementara wacana ekonomi mengarah pada pengembangan dan pertumbuhan. selanjutnya, banyak pemerhati lingkungan mengklaim bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi dan pembangunan menyebabkan bencana ekologis. di sisi lain para teknokrat ekonomi curiga menganggap lingkungan sebagai anti pertumbuhan dan pembangunan. meskipun literatur klasik islam tidak mengandung kata ekonomi dan ekologi, namun wacana tentang pemeliharaan sumber daya manusia yang terbatas untuk pembangunan manusia dan pertumbuhannya telah dan terus diteliti. bercermin dari situasi, makalah ini mencoba menjembatani hubungan yang bersitegang antara ekologi dan ekonomi dengan menguraikan etika etika penatalayanan ke dalam kedua studi lapangan. dengan demikian, diskusi dimulai dengan memeriksa bidang ekologi dan ekonomi untuk menemukan kesamaan antara keduanya. cara kita memahami ekologi dalam perspektif islam membantu kita memperbaiki pemahaman dan praktik kita di ekonomi islam, dan sebaliknya, ekonomi islam "hijau" ini mungkin berkontribusi untuk meningkatkan situasi lingkungan kita. kata kunci: ekonomi ekologi, etika islami, penatagunaan klasifikasi jel: q57, z12, q50 mailto:erin.gayatri@mail.ugm.ac.id 104 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 2, oktober 2017: 103-110 introduction long history of human being has undergone contamination one another which always changes their culture. in the midst of globalization, people attempt to maintenance their culture as identity from the other cultures. if the culture that we have today comes from long process of contamination with the other cultures, why human should be worried and attempt to avoid it? (appiah 2016, p.24), whereas, the other crucial factor that affects human cultural change is nature. moreover, religion is shaped by natural world such how the natural world forms the context of religious beliefs and practice (bauman and o‟brien 2011, p.49). consequently, there is a mutually influencing between nature and culture. ecology as a nature and economy as a culture are the part of human crisis. in term of ecology crisis, many scholars have demonstrated the climate change with many evidences such as, the rising level of the sea directly impacting kiribati island, the uncertain of weather impacting the plant times of the peasant which is determined whether successful harvest or not. while the economy crisis happened in some particular region and people such the slums area in the world, the other case about the refugees looked for better life like financial in the other place. besides those conditions, ecology and economy tend to be located in the opposite enterprises. the discourses about economy concern in the goals of development and growth, such as, how to complete the human needs and (wants) with the empowerment of natural resources. hartman in bauman and o‟brien (2011, p.147) argues that economics is an esoteric discipline understood by few experts. there has complexity in the process of supply, demand, production, distribution, and consumption of goods and service. however, people only do the economic activity without an adequate understanding. we could not deny that our economy today almost using economy capital where individual people is liberated to refine the meaning of possessing. there is no limitation for the people to collect their wealth. even though the people have to regard the environmental problem. indeed, there has power relation on building the market as the main place within economy activity. time by time the market always lifts the human needs until we are in the midst of the ambiguity of basic needs today. the explosion of realm industries has brought the big impact to the ecological crisis. the air and water pollution, footprints of mining, biodiversity loss and calamity of ecological condition. according to herman daly as the founder of ecological economics, it reminds us that the human economy is embedded in and dependent on the natural ecosystem of our planet (daly in coward and c. maguire 2000, p.31). competing of market in the free trade demands the industry to extend their area empowering natural resources. for instance, in the centre of sulawesi where some of green village was changed to industrial places recently. ecology as the big idea about relation between human and non-human being like the chain which connect at all. ecology understood by haeckel is both natural and world view (haeckel in bauman and o‟brien 2011, p.49). environmentalists have argued that what we have done already arrant. we have to doubt the modernity as the “pride period”, modernity was perceived as the progress of human life where the people are easily to get what they want and when they want to go. global economy operated in the free market and welcoming investor from different nations bounded the economy international organization. uncommonly, bruno latour is against our claim that we are modern people in the modern era better then past. for latour, “we have never been modern” because today we are in the uncertainty and brutality action particularly to the human and nature (latour in blok and jensen 2011, pp.52-53). we have to redefine our understanding about modernity, it is not merely bridging ecology and economy through islamic ethics of stewardship (erin gayatri) 105 about the technology, science, economy and political progress. more than those, we have left the substantial understanding of modernity whereas the human is our responsibility to keep the balancing. ecology and economy from the same root is oikos which means home, economics is the study of how humans manage household and system, and ecumenism is the effort to foster understanding and unity between different faith traditions, then in the broad meaning the scholar change the way we understand in which it is related to care about the world around us (bauman 2011, p.147). related to the explanation of the different interest way, between ecology and economy virtually have the same root, yet, why are both ultimately separated in the realities? it is inherently how the human develop or decline the genealogy of category in practice. research method this research is categorized as qualitative research conducted by inquiry the literatures on islamic view and ethics about ecology and economy. then, it looks for the way of islamic ethics dealing with ecology and economy problems. this paper will examine „to what extent is the islamic ethics rule related to both issues.‟ here the writer uses some theories which discuss the encounter between ecology and economy within islamic ethics of stewardship. result and discussion gap between ecology and economy inquiry the gap between ecology and economy in perceiving the human welfare is probably that we could begin in the simply case, how both terms response and define sustainability. willis jenkins explains three models of sustainability, first, economic model of sustainability, it is proposed to sustain welfare in the form of capital. jenkins compare with the classical definition of robert solow, sustainability poses an investment problem in which societies must use returns from using natural resources in order to create new opportunities of equal or greater value. here, the ideal and justice concepts are related the environment as the protection sphere. second, the ecological model of sustainability proposes to sustain biological diversity and ecological integrity. directly they focus on the health of the living world rather than welfare or capital. there are two points of view to decide which ecological goods can be sustained. from anthropocentric point of view, the essential natural resources and the ecological system and regenerative processes in which human system relies should be sustained. then, from economic point of view, species should be sustained for the intrinsic value. thirdly, it is the political model of sustainability which proposes to sustain social system that realizes human dignity. this model focuses on sustaining the environmental condition of a fully human life (jenskin in bauman 2011, p.147). based on jenskins‟ three models of sustainability, it is unequivocal to see that there are gaps among economic sustainability, ecological sustainability, and political sustainability. indeed, the global economy also creates the global slums (davis, 2006). there is an erroneous when the natural resources are used to the development of economy, yet, those could not decrease the poor and suffering people in effective changing. moreover, the development of economy has made the nature suffer. in the other hand, ecological and political sustainability look for the balancing condition on how the human and nature live in the harmony. islamic ethics of stewardship two main resources of ecological crisis are modern science and modern economic system (bagir and martiam, 2016, p.80) where it refers to western discovering and developing. thereby, many scholars attempt to bridge those causes with ecological crisis in diversity views. 106 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 2, oktober 2017: 103-110 here, for the particular case of islamic economy, this paper attempts to bridge the ecological crisis and islamic economy with the concept of stewardship in islamic ethics. some scholars (race, 1999; haq, 2001; jha, 2014) have written about the concept of khalifah, in some words such as stewardship, trusteeship, viceregency and the servant of god. those words show that the main problem of ecological crisis is the actor of threat in this world, namely human. in daily life, human do their profession by using many world views and references and one of them is the reason of religious thought. with the concept of khalifah, human have to be back on the root if islamic thought influences their duty in many spheres. even though human always attempt to negotiate what they have to do in the midst of modernity, people merely bring the concept and principle in the idea not the real practice. it is like what nasr said, today people desacralize the nature so people are difficult to reach the religious reason in the practice. as the khalifah, man doubted to angels when the god mention that he will create the human. mentioned by qur‟an that “and (mentioned) when the lord said to the angels”, “indeed, i will make upon the earth a steward” the qur‟ān (surah al-baqarah: verse 30), then the response of angels is that “they (the angels) said “will you place upon who it one causes corruption therein and shed blood, while we declare you the praises and sanctify you? god said: i know which you do not know. and he thought adam the namesall of them”. today we may say that we have done what angels said for long time, yet, we have not yet approved what god mentions about what does the meaning of god know which angle does not know? it may be the sign of the human that as long as they believe and feel closer to the god, they will approve that human did not like angel suspect. as the khalifah on the earth, the qur‟ān and hadith mention anything what people have to do. even though the other scholar said that it is merely defensive, if no apologetic, virtually i agree that it happened in some cases. however, we have to be aware what is the main problem of people particularly muslims who only arrived in that position when we have paired with environmental issues? otherwise the other case like being mentioned by the qur‟ān and hadith in the way that do the people interpreting it to do terrorism really works? we will discuss it below. how islam response to ecology modern environmental problems have not only material but also moral and spiritual dimensions (kamali, 2010, p.4), hence, we brought the scriptural sphere to face the environmental crisis. qur‟an contains of many sides of ecology, if the contradistinction to seeing nature as separation is possibly, it is instead of being permeated with the signs of god, essentially being the unfolding creative act of god himself, then accordingly the maintenance of such harmonious balance becomes the imperative of faith based on stewardship. jha (2014) has presented some related verses which gave the depth meaning on how the contents of the qur‟ān reflect people on how god communicated to the human through the histories including the thought of ecological and economical maters. “and the heavens he has lifted and placed the balance; that you not exceed the balance. so establish just measure and do not upset the balance.” [qur'an 55:7-9] as the command "do not upset the balance "implies, islam states that the intricate balance within nature is inherently disruptable, where the key responsibility (amānah) of stewardship (khilāfah) to maintain it arises. islam sees nature as a cosmic book, the word “ayāt” refers not only to qur‟anic verses, but to natural signs within the cosmos, implying that both have instructive qualities required to be reflected, deciphered and acted upon (nasr in jha, 2015, p.6). bridging ecology and economy through islamic ethics of stewardship (erin gayatri) 107 “most surely in the creation of the heavens and the earth and the alternation of the night and the day, and the ships that run in the sea with that which profits men, and the water that god sends down from the clouds, then gives life with it to the earth after its death and spreads in it all animals, and the changing of the winds and the clouds made subservient between the heaven and the earth, there are “signs” (lit.ayāt) for a people who understand.” [qur'an 2:164] the story of prophet solomon became the main reflection that even the colony of ant, the communication of ants has inspired to pray to the god in gratitude: “till, when they came upon a valley of ants, an ant exclaimed: “o you ants! get into your dwellings, lest solomon and his soldiers crush you without being aware!” thereupon (solomon) smiled joyously at her words, and said: “o my sustainer! inspire me so that i may be grateful for those blessings of yours with which you have graced me and my parents, and that i may do what is right that will please you; and include me, by your mercy, among your righteous servants!” [qur'an 27:18-19] jha (2014) depicted in the beautiful sentences how the quran represented god willing and means about the nature, “hence, the qur'anic portrayal of nature is one of a repository for the glorification of god, a gift of sustenance, whose sacrosanctness demands attention and discernment to the messages. by way of further guidance, the qur'ān itself is replete with the illustrative analogies of nature implying a deep interconnectedness with all that exist. from “fecundating winds” that carry pollen to produce blossoms are the indicative of god‟s divine mercy, to the oft-mentioned theme of rain giving life to barren land as illustrating god who brings dead hearts which are back to life; natural phenomena are consistently posited a source for revelatory communication, revealing both what is right and wrong, highlighting the deeper meaning behind the role of crisis.” how islam talk about economy the emergence of islamic economy is to offer the new alternative way responding to the collapse of conventional economy (aydin, 2013, 3). even though islamic economics overlaps with the conventional economics in terms of dealing with scarce resources in order to fulfil the needs and wants of human beings, it differs significantly in the way it answers to the core economic questions and defines human needs and well-being. while conventional economics emerging within the materialist worldview is solely based on human reason, islamic economics is based on human reason and the divine guidance (khan, 1989). the true scope of economics must be closely relevant to islamic ethical systems, which arrange the way in which we live, the morality of all aspects of behaviour and its implications and the means, measures and ideal aspirations and goals of man in this world and hereafter. in this sense, there is a very legitimate basis for developing logical connections between islam and study of human and ecological economics (hassan 2005, p.16). the principles of the islamic economy in the light of the qur‟an and the sayings of the prophet mohammad are to improve the quality of the economy by encouraging good and forbidding the harmful. the main aims of the islamic economic system are to increase justice, decrease extravagance, increase welfare, decrease exploitation, increase equality and fairness, and undermine discrimination (hassan, 2015, p.23). islamic economy well known as islamic sharia is the part of rules in islamic way of life based on the qur‟an and hadith. one of the core concept of islamic economy avoids usury for the other scholar as the simple and common ground, yet, in the extent understanding usury is very important to the subject matter of islam and the environment (dutton in richard and baharuddin, 2003, p. 331). amidst realization that the current financial system is unsustainable precisely because it has been founded upon usury. it is increasingly becoming clear that there was no accidental purpose in nearly all the major world religions proscribing it. the definitive qur'anic verse against usury is: 108 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 2, oktober 2017: 103-110 "those who consume interest cannot stand except as one who stands being touched by a devilish touch into insanity. that is because they say, "trade is [just] like interest." but god has permitted trade and forbidden interest. so, whoever receives an admonition from his lord and desists may have what is past, while his affair rests with god…god blights interest and gives growth to charity…o you who have believed, be mindful of god and give up what remains [due to you] of interest, if you be believers. and if you do not, then be informed of a war from god and his messenger. but if you repent, you may keep your principal – oppress not and you will not be oppressed.” the qur'ān (surah al-baqarah: verse 275-279] usury or riba in extended analogy on how human take more from the nature exhausted the nature. human is not the owner of all creatures prominently the nature, human as the khalifah put together with the other creatures then be responsible to keep the harmony among the nature. further, jha (2014) adjusts the values of islamic economics related to the ecology into the contemporary problem where it is rare to be encountered. he presented interestingly to the four dominant features of usury that have become especially manifest today, namely: a) scarcity ("touched by a devilish touch") –the 'devilish touch' or that of being "threatened with poverty and urged to immorality" the qur'ān surah al-baqarah: verse 269] affirms the old wall street saying that the "financial markets are driven by two powerful emotions–fear and greed." fear and greed are also related to the market which always lift the people need. people concern on how to compete and reach the maximum economical life style. with the people wants, economical proses would not find the ideal concept of welfare. b) distortion of trade ("god has permitted trade and forbidden usury") –the paradigm of fair trade is distorted when coupled with interest. today's trade liberalisation and imf/world bank/wto policies have created a world where the development country as the dominant and showed the monopoly of the natural resources even human resources. many countries in the midst of corporation did not get the equal result of economy. it is more to support the capitalism in the free trade rather than support the third world or the weakness economical state. c) ecological destruction ("be informed of a war from god") – islam equates the practice of usury to a „war against god‟; interestingly this is the only such instance in the qur'an of the use of such terminology. d) structural oppression ("oppress not and you will not be oppressed") – structurally redistribute of the wealth from the wealth from the larger majority country to the small minority country. the other main thought of islamic economy is how god forbids extravagance and waste, in the qur‟an it is same as the devil brethren the qur‟ān surah al-isra‟: verse 26). all of the creatures have their own proportion and measurement. one thing that is the most important is islam talks about ecology and economy rapidly in many ayahs. nevertheless, we could not deny that practically many kinds of “islam” have different ways to interpret and apply it. the influence of islamic ethics particularly in the economical way to the environmental crisis is still doubted. after many of scholars contribute to propose and introduce the concept and principle of islam, probably we should ask why it is not effective enough to change the people/muslims interests, life style and the other kind of activities. we could see in the economical case, islamic economy merely use the principle and basic islamic ethics concept, yet, adapt the common economical operation. because if we refer to the root, islamic economy encouraged to lift quality economy of the poor bridging ecology and economy through islamic ethics of stewardship (erin gayatri) 109 and keep the balancing of environment as the natural resources. we even did not find the concept in the real operation, such as, how to apply the muslims economical style. islamic economy also did not take the clear position about the ambiguity of the human needs today. even, islamic banking also provides the unlimited wealth. while the poor people always increase every time along with the environmental crisis, it is related to islamic ethics of stewardship in which people have to take the role in many spheres to secure the economy and ecological crisis. people could do it rapidly before it is too late. our problem today is that it is difficult to against what we have done for long time. for instances, in the case of ecological crisis, we would find the limited article from the economists about how the economy activity bankrupts the earth now days. people who active discuss about it are dominant from the other science discipline. when the economists do that and attempt to apply it, it means that they have to do the big changes of economy activity. conclusion after discussing the ecology and economy in islamic world view, we could learn from both sides. how the environmentalists learn the islamic economy concept that we could secure our environmental crisis without accusing the economic activity and how the economists learn the islamic environment concept which passes the process of fulfilling the people needs (basic need not the developing need). we do not have to damage the nature. by using the key concept of khalifah, forbidding the usury, building the simplicity life and the other islamic ethics, we have to refine the understanding and practice in islamic economic. islamic green economy is the result of dealing process among the main though in scripture (the qur‟an) about the ethics to decrease the poor people and keep the nature where both are as the creatures of god. there are the ethics which could not deny the reason of development. thereby, we find the islamic economy in the different face, islamic green economy may contribute to enhance our environmental situations. acknowledgement thank you for lpdp/lembaga pengelola dana pendidikan (indonesia endowment fund for education) which has been funded my master degree in religion and cross-cultural studies in gadjah mada university and also sponsored this paper. references akhtar, m. r. (1996). towards an islamic approach for environmental balance. islamic economic studies, 3(2), 57-77. appiah, k. a. (2006). the case for contamination. new york times magazine, 1, 32. aydin, n. (2013). redefining islamic economics as a new economic paradigm. islamic economic studies, 21(1), 1-34. bauman, w. a., & bohannon, r. (eds.). (2017). grounding religion: a field guide to the study of religion and ecology. taylor & francis. blok, a., & jensen, t. e. (2011). bruno latour: hybrid thoughts in a hybrid world. routledge. brown, j. h. (2013). metaphysical dimensions of muslim environmental consciousness. tabah essays series, (3). chapra, m. u. (2009). ethics and economics: an islamic perspective. islamic economic studies, 16(1), 2-18. coward, h., & maguire, d. c. (eds.). (2000). visions of a new earth: religious perspectives on population, consumption, and ecology. suny press. davis, m. (2007). planet of slums (2006). london & new york: verso google scholar. 110 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 2, oktober 2017: 103-110 foltz, r. c., denny, f. m., & baharuddin, a. (2003). islam and ecology. a bestowed trust, 3. haq, s. n. (2001). islam and ecology: toward retrieval and reconstruction. daedalus, 130(4), 141-177. hassan, a. b. u. l. (2005). islamic economics and the environment: material flow analysis in society-nature interrelationships. jkau: islamic economics, 18, 15-31. jenkins, w. j., tucker, m. e., & grim, j. (eds.). (2016). routledge handbook of religion and ecology. routledge. jha, yusuf. (2014). islam, justice in. economic and ecological justice in islam. kamali, m. h. (2012). environmental care in islam: a quranic perspective. islam and civilisational renewal (icr), 3(2). khan, m. s., & mirakhor, a. (1989). the financial system and monetary policy in an islamic economy. journal of king abdulaziz university: islamic economics, 1(1), 39-57. rice, g. (1999). islamic ethics and the implications for business. journal of business ethics, 18(4), 345-358. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 23 no 2, october 2022 article type: research paper dynamization analysis of capital inflow, credit allocation, and banking performance using panel vector autoregressive mahjus ekananda abstract: the direction of globalization and the integration of the financial system continue to increase, in line with the increasing capital flows, which is the focus of discussion in this research. this study applies panel data analysis to analyze banking behavior in order to improve its performance. the analysis uses panel data from 1991 to 2020 in 39 countries. return on equity (roe) as a measure of the success of banking operations is determined by various interrelated factors. one of the variables closely related to banking performance is the share of non-financial business loans, the share of capital inflows entering the banking sector, and the share of capital inflows entering the non-bank sector. economic variables that support good banking performance are gdp growth, bank concentration, inflation, leverage, and bank efficiency. this article applies a panel vector autoregressive to capture the dynamization, and heterogeneity. the most exciting results were obtained by dividing the sample into subgroups, which helped the researcher understand each regime's different roles and transmissions. the changes in capital inflows to the non-bank sector will significantly reduce roe and increase leverage for the next five periods. the results of the study imply that nowadays, bank managers should be aware while the changes in capital inflows change very quickly. bank managers in countries with high capital inflows must always be aware of changes in capital inflows to the non-bank sector—steps to bank management by diversifying sources of funds efficiently from other parties in the transmission of credit channel. keywords: capital flow; bank performance; leverage; panel vector autoregressive; dynamic model jel classification: e22; g20; g21; c23; c22 introduction banking performance is the final goal of banking, to gain market share and banking sustainability. during the global financial crisis in 2007-2008, banking profits showed rapid development. one of the reasons is the efficiency and optimization of bank credit share. sources of funding experienced changes and developments. initially, domestic funding sources from the banking sector were still dominant. several studies explained a relationship between the allocation of credit disbursement by banks and their performance’s improvement. optimal credit allocation will encourage better banking performance (xu et al., 2018). this relationship can be dynamic and interdependent on various factors. several factors that are affiliation: department of economics, faculty of economics and business, universitas indonesia, west java, indonesia *correspondence: mahyusekananda@gmail.com this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v23i2.16014 citation: ekananda, m. (2022). dynamization analysis of capital inflow, credit allocation, and banking performance using panel vector autoregressive. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 23(2), 245 article history received: 29 aug 2022 revised: 19 oct 2022 accepted: 29 nov 2022 https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorid=57195435741 https://economics.feb.ui.ac.id/profil/ https://economics.feb.ui.ac.id/profil/ https://economics.feb.ui.ac.id/profil/ https://economics.feb.ui.ac.id/profil/ mailto:mahyusekananda@gmail.com http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/16014 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v23i2.16014&domain=pdf ekananda dynamization analysis of capital inflow, credit allocation, … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 246 often mentioned in various articles are banking capacity, interest rates, credit risk, trade openness, and capital inflow (bezemer et al., 2017). the development of high capital mobility has resulted in corporations being able to choose funding sources other than bank credit. the flow of foreign capital into a country will impact the decreasing demand for credit from the corporations in the banking sector. banks tend to shift their credit to the private sector (zaiane & moussa, 2021). bank credit allocation has shifted and now is marked by high growth in the individual sector. the impact of shifts in credit allocation includes stunted growth, disrupted economic stability, and financial fragility in a country. changes in the allocation of bank credit have gained more attention because they can increase macroeconomic vulnerabilities and have negative impact to the economy. beck et al. (2012), and dunn and ekici (2010) studied that a decline in credit for the corporate sector accompanied by an increase in personal credit will impact in lower savings rates and slow economic growth. several other kinds of literature state that high personal credit will increase external imbalances, primarily through exports (büyükkarabacak & krause, 2009), and have a more significant and more prolonged impact during crises and recessions (alberto, 2016). the vulnerabilities are mainly transmitted through two transmission lines: the consumption channel (dynan et al., 2012) and the investment channel (chakraborty et al., 2013). economics between countries add to the complexity of capital flows. global capital flows are increasingly mobile and spread through various means, including direct investment flows and portfolio investments (ekananda & suryanto, 2021). samarina and bezemer (2016) explained that various factors influence domestic banking credit distribution allocation. this marks the flow of foreign capital that enters the banking and corporate sectors. the development of capital inflows can be an incentive for a constrained saving economy. at the same time, portfolio investment can increase the allocation of consumer credit, which also increasing the vulnerability of financial system’s stability. this research gives new contribution to the previous literatures that have been conducted before as they tend to analyze the allocation of bank credit in terms of banking behavior (micro/internal factors), while other macro factors such as trade openness and capital inflows were not used in the analysis. research on the impact of capital inflows generally uses data on total capital inflows. when viewed from the type and composition of capital inflows, each type has a different impact on banking performance (ekananda, 2017). this difference is due to different transmissions which depends on the concentration and optimization of bank credit allocation. igan and tan (2015), using data from 1980to 2011, explained that capital inflows (non-fdi types) will encourage credit growth, and both individual and corporate loans. however, igan and tan (2015) did not look specifically at sectors that receive capital inflows. a year later, samarina and bezemer (2016) developed a study by looking at the effict of capital inflows flowing in the banking sector and non-bank sector on corporate credit allocation. however, samarina and bezemer (2016) ignored the endogeneity and exogenous relationship between economic variables. samarina and bezemer (2016) had considered the heterogeneity of state ekananda dynamization analysis of capital inflow, credit allocation, … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 247 banking factors by involving data from the economic monetary union and the organization for economic cooperation and development (oecd) country groups. the main contribution of this study is to look at the allocation of bank credit, which concerns the country's characteristics based on the level of globalization of its financial system (the share of foreign banks to total national banking) in order to fill the existing gaps and contribute to the previous literature. therefore, this research intends to answer empirically and contribute to the previous literature by providing an integrated approach by examining the relationship between capital inflows and global banking credit allocation using the equation model. theoretical background this study has an overview of the theories related to various economic agents. theoretical studies will discuss the relationship between the flow of funds between economic agents. this includes banks, companies (firms), and individuals (households). the relationship between these three sectors can be explained from the supply and demand side. on the demand side, the condition of corporate and individual balance sheets and the availability of external funds are factors that influence the demand of credit for the corporate and individual sectors. meanwhile, on the supply side, capital inflows/external funding, macroeconomic conditions, and banking sector characteristics are some of the factors that influence the supply of credit to the corporate and individual sectors (freixas & rochet, 2008). this model assumes that the public sectors (government and central bank) are not included. each sector can be described as follows.; the private sector will allocate its income for consumption (c1, c2) and for saving (sav) in the form of deposits in the dh bank and securities (bonds) bh, and will maximize its utility function by considering budget constraints: max u(c1, c2) (1) c1 + bh + dh = 1 (2) and pc2 = f + b + (1 + r)bh + (1 + rd)dh (3) where ω1 represents the initial endowment of consumption, p is the price of c2, пf and пb are a company and bank profits, r and rd are interest rates obtained from bonds and deposits. the corporation has the option of investing in level i, and the source of financing can be obtained from lf banking credit and by issuing bf securities, and the corporation will maximize profit: max f (4) f = pf(i) − (1 + r)bf − (1 + rl)lf (5) and i = bf + lf (6) ekananda dynamization analysis of capital inflow, credit allocation, … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 248 where f is the production function and rl is the bank loan interest rate. the bank will choose its offer of lb credit, demand for db deposits, and issuance of bb bonds to maximize profit: max b (7) b = rllb − rbb − rddb (8) and lb = bb + db (9) furthermore, in optimizing the allocation of credit, banks will consider the difference between the interest rates for consumer/personal loans and the interest rates for corporate loans (se = r – r*). it is assumed that these two types of credit have substitute properties. the supply of bank credit is a function of bank deposits and the interest rate differential, l = g(d, se). l is the supply of credit, d is the deposit, and se is the difference in interest rates for consumers and corporations (brissimis et al., 2012). the main factors that consider the demand for credit by the corporate and individual sectors include the cost of credit, which are the credit interest rates and economic activity. on the supply side, the ability and willingness to lend by banks are influenced by the condition of the sources of funds owned by banks (bank equity, total assets, deposits, and cost of external financing), banking capital position, costs of other alternative bank portfolios (e.g., the difference between interest rates), lending rates and t-bill rates), competition with other banks, and perceived risk (macroeconomic variables, nonperforming loans) (brissimis et al., 2012). the theory and several kinds of literature described the factors that influence credit composition in the individual and corporate sectors including transaction costs and risk management (beck et al., 2012). the individual sector is a debtor with a small credit limit (smaller size), it is generally the type of debtor that is difficult to evaluate and has low collateral compared to the corporate sector. this type of debtor causes banks to view the individual sector as a sector that has higher transaction costs and risks compared to the corporate sector. several kinds of literature studied the relationship between capital allocation and efficiency on banking performance: changes that occur in credit allocation will cause changes in banking income. further, the composition of current loans and efficient bank management will increase revenue and improve banking performance. souza (2016) stated that an increase in capital inflows will encourage an increase in asset prices as well, and loosen borrowing constraints. improved performance has something to do with credit growth caused by economic growth. further, high economic growth will increase capital inflow through banks and increase bank performance. other researchers such as raza et al. (2019), have used oecd data to find evidence that economic growth, good economic conditions, changes in credit allocation to the banking sector, and efficiency of banking management will improve banking performance. ekananda dynamization analysis of capital inflow, credit allocation, … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 249 there are two primary motivations for horizontal integration: increasing revenues and decreasing costs. the increase in income is obtained by expanding market share and increasing market power by setting interest rates above interest rates in a perfectly competitive market (kopecky & van hoose, 2012). market power increases because the number of companies decreases, so concentration increases (tremblay & tremblay, 2012). the merger paradox criticized this opinion about the increase in revenue. by using the cournot model, where it is assumed that firms have constant and identical costs, prices are set above marginal cost with the output that produces the maximum profit from each firm under conditions of mutual attention to the reactions of its competitors. bélanger and edwards (2013) explained that the merger will not increase profits. this paradox can only be eliminated when the merging companies differentiate their products to have market power. meanwhile, cost reduction can be made by replacing a more efficient management system, implementing low-cost technology and business, and producing a product mix that provides economies of scope and economies of scale (tremblay & tremblay, 2012; van hoose, 2010). a study of bank mergers in the united states from 1985 to 1996 found that the increase in stock prices of consolidated banks was due to cost savings rather than anticipated increases in income (klutse, 2020). several researchers also use panel data to prove their hypothesis about the relationship between capital inflows, credit growth, and the financial system. igan and tan (1995) used data from 33 countries from 1980 to 2011. this study is similar to the present research. the analysis is aimed at the consumer sector and corporate sector loans, capital inflows are expected to boost credit growth for the consumer and corporate sectors. the results of his research shows that fdi inflows do not affect credit growth. several researchers have discussed the variables that show the characteristics of the bank, such as efficiency, concentration, and leverage affect bank profits. capital inflows that enter the banking system will be managed efficiently and generate higher profits. discussions about competition have been going on for a long time and continue to develop. market structure is identified by the level of concentration or percentage of the entire market, controlled by some of the largest companies, the degree of differentiation, and barriers to market entry. behavior is identified with the company's strategy that is related to price, production, investment, innovation, advertising, collusion, etc. meanwhile, performance is identified with the company's efficiency and profitability (bikker et al., 2012; bélanger & edwards, 2013). banking market concentration is a measure of competition in the banking industry. various researchers have carried out various ways of measuring concentration. the most common measurement method calculates the total share of the five largest bank assets to total banking assets. researchers who have applied this method include bikker and van leuvensteijn (2014). this method measures this. concentration only occurs in the five largest banks. other banks cannot compete because their asset growth could not keep up ekananda dynamization analysis of capital inflow, credit allocation, … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 250 with the biggest banks. in this paradigm, competition will be stronger when the number of competing companies are less or more concentrated. the banking industry allows for high concentration. bikker and van leuvensteijn (2014) explained that there are several characteristics related to the concentration of the banking market as follows. 1) tight competition between banks encourages consolidation to win the competition; 2) barriers to entry into the banking industry are quite high (economies of scale, regulations, accounting, and car regulations, solvency, high cost of product development, and size of financial institutions); 3) interbank interaction, transparency, and asymmetrical fee structure facilitate coordination actions; 4) most banking products are quite complex and have high switching costs, different services, and tariffs can exploit monopolistic competition; and 5) the existence of bank linkages with other financial institutions such as conglomerates to reduce competition, due to comprehension of risk information, good relations with customers. these five characteristics can restrain the growth of the number of banks in the industry. we can conclude that the higher concentration of the banking market will encourage banks to create better performance. banking efficiency will reduce production costs and overhead cost so that efficiency will generate greater profits. the more efficient a company is, the larger the company will grow, enabling contribution in determining prices, increasing market power, and ultimately increasing company profits (thorley & fulda, 2020). on the other hand, efficiency provides an opportunity to lower prices, and stimulate innovations, thereby opening up markets for new firms (bikker & van leuvensteijn, 2014). research method to answer the research objective or to analyze banking performance associated with the trend of increasing capital flows and credit allocation, this study will apply the panel data method using data on bank credit allocations in 43 countries in the world from year 19902016. the model used here refers to the framework of thought and empirical studies that have been conducted previously (samarina & bezemer, 2016). they looked at the relationship between capital inflows and bank credit allocation in 36 european countries in the year 1990to 2011. this study focuses on the trend of increasingly integrated global financial systems. to that end, the analysis will compare the relationship between capital inflows and bank credit allocations between groups of countries based on the share of foreign banks. further, this study also complements the independent variables used, including the capital flow matrix and control variables, and bank characteristics, as done by (bezemer et al., 2017). apart from the selection of variables, investigating the dynamics between capital inflows and bank credit allocation has not been analyzed yet in global countries with a broader timeline coverage, 1990-2020. data analysis was conducted using secondary data obtained from several sources, including imf, bis, ceic, bps, bank indonesia, and world bank data. ekananda dynamization analysis of capital inflow, credit allocation, … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 251 explanatory variables consist of two groups, which are bank characteristics variables, and macroeconomic variables. the use of explanatory variables refers to the theoretical framework as described earlier. macro variables are inflation, exchange rate, economic growth, and deregulation. variables related to bank characteristics are efficiency, concentration, capital inflow, share of non-financial business loans to total bank loans (credit allocation), and leverage. banking concentration as an explanatory variable follows the research of bikker and van leuvensteijn (2014) and han et al. (2017), banking leverage (ferrante, 2015), banking efficiency follows the research conducted by bikker and van leuvensteijn (2014). capital inflows in the banking sector and the corporate sector are used in the present research, by observing the research conducted by igan and tan (1995), calderón and kubota (2019), durdu et al. (2013), lane and milesi-ferretti (2010), and souza (2016). using roe, the performance variable follows several researchers, namely roe (pagratis et al., 2014), and raza et al. (2019). table 1 variable list variable description unit explanation 𝐶𝑟𝑁𝐹𝐵𝑖𝑡 share of non-financial business loans to total bank loans % total kredit bis (bank for international settlements) 𝐵𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑖𝑡 share of capital inflows (portfolio equity, debt, and other investment loans) entering the banking sector to gdp % gdp bop – imf 𝑁𝐵𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑖𝑡 share of capital inflows (portfolio equity, debt, and other investment loans) entering the non-bank sector to gdp % gdp bop – imf 𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑐𝑟𝑖𝑡 concentration is calculated from the total share of the top 5 largest bank assets to total banking assets % total aset world bank 𝐸𝑓𝑓𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡 efficiency is calculated from the ratio of total revenue to costs % world bank 𝐺𝐷𝑃𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑖𝑡 gdp per capita usd world bank 𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑖𝑡 inflation is calculated from annual cpi growth % (yoy) imf weo 𝐸𝑥𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑖𝑡 the exchange rate of lcu (local currency units) against the u.s. dollars lcu/usd imf ifs 𝐿𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑖𝑡 the ratio of total bank credit to total deposit % world bank 𝑑𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑔𝑖𝑡 credit market deregulation index index fraser institute’s economic freedom indicators 𝑅𝑂𝐸𝑖𝑡 bank return on equity % before tax world bank the data that will be used in this research is panel data, a combination of cross-section and time-series data. wooldridge (2010) and greene (2018) explains several advantages of using panel data: paying attention to heterogeneity, more complete information, less possibility of collinearity between the variables studied, and more degrees of freedom and efficiency. the data used are from 39 countries in the span of 30 years (1991-2020). deregulation is measured as the index from three components: ownership of banks, an extension of credit, and interest rate controls/negative interest rates. we obtained this ekananda dynamization analysis of capital inflow, credit allocation, … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 252 from fraser institute’s economic freedom indicators. the index is the average of all components, with an index of 1 – 10. the table 2 is a descriptive statistic that consists the average, 50% of percentile, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation. the data is calculated using 1,170 observations, with 39 countries and 30 periods from 1991 – to 2020. globally, the average corporate credit allocation for banking reached 41.83% (total credit), with the share of capital inflows in the non-bank sector being more extensive than the share of capital inflows in the banking sector. table 2 descriptive statistics var average perc 50% stdev var average perc 50% stdev crnfb 39.86 37.44 10.55 roe 11.06 11.37 5.76 binfl 85.50 27.57 218.55 gdpcap 26,048 28,067 18,541 nbinfl 204.92 29.88 966.19 inf 11.43 2.52 31.57 concr 75.01 76.22 14.53 exrate 323.51 2.09 1,393 leverage 100.46 94.95 40.25 dereg 8.41 8.58 0.99 the std dev value indicates a variable with a level of volatility or a tendency to change. the larger the value, the more volatile the variable. based on table 2, changes in capital inflow in the banking sector and the non-bank sector are the most volatile. the table indicates that the volatility of capital inflows is higher, which indicates that capital inflows tend to be short-term. this research is expected to produce responses that occur 1) contemporaneous and 2) lag time, which are responses that occur at some time after the impulse. some things to note are the order because it uses the cholesky method. the variables arranged to form a sequence in the cholesky orthogonalization structure show the total impact between variables when shock occurs. the research uses data from various countries. the diversity of countries can be seen from the large deviation of gdp. the analysis strategy uses all data followed by analysis for divided data (table 3). distribution of data according to the country with nominal gdp, the share of capital inflow to the non-bank sector gdp (nbinfl), and the share of capital inflow to the banking sector (binfl). all data is divided into two by the average threshold. we expect a specific irf pattern to fit this grouping. table 3 variables and thresholds variable category number of country obs threshold all 39 1092 nominal gdp per capita high 19 532 26,047.67 low 20 560 share of capital inflow to the banking sector to gdp (binfl) high 32 896 85.50 low 7 196 share of capital inflow to non-bank sector to gdp (nbinfl) high 19 532 29.88 low 20 560 leverage high 19 532 94.95 low 20 560 ekananda dynamization analysis of capital inflow, credit allocation, … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 253 this research gives new contribution for the previous literatures. this study uses panel data estimation techniques. according to ekananda (2016) and greene (2018), some of the purposes of using panel data include; first, panel data can determine the heterogeneity of banking originating from various countries. second, panel data analysis considers unobserved variables. third, able to reduce inter-variable collinearity.fourth, panel data estimation can minimize the bias generated by individual aggregation because there are more data units. the methodology used in this study uses a vector autoregressive (var) model to obtain a response in the presence of shock from several regression variables. responses in the next period will record the combined impact over time. therefore, the response in the next period is very dependent on the lag structure, variable stationarity, and the role of exogenous variables in the var model. the use of the fixed effict model on pvar is expected to be able to capture unobserved variables sourced from various banks. according to the model created by abrigo and love, (2016) and yang and lee, (2021), the panel var method. the stata application has adopted an algorithm for heterogeneity and dynamics in vector autoregressive. this section will describe the pvar versus var matrix. the fundamental difference between pvar and var lies in the data structure that adopts behavior between individuals and dynamic behavior between variables. the pvar used the estimator concept proposed by yang and lee, (2021), in the case of a var panel, a data set consists of i = 1,2,…., n individuals. each individual has t= 1,2,3,…t period. the following is an example of model 1, where the w matrix consists of 6 endogenous variables binfl, nbinfl, crnfb, effic, concr, and roe. the arrangement of the pvar(1) equations which consist of 5 equations, is: 𝑑𝐵𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑖𝑡 = 𝛽10 + 𝛽11𝑑𝐵𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑖𝑡−1 + 𝛽12𝑑𝑁𝐵𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑖𝑡−1 + ⋯ + 𝛼15𝑅𝑂𝐸𝑖𝑡−1 + 𝜀𝑒𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑐,𝑖𝑡 𝑑𝑁𝐵𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑖𝑡 = 𝛽20 + 𝛽21𝑑𝐵𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑖𝑡−1 + 𝛽22𝑑𝑁𝐵𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑖𝑡−1+. . + 𝛼25𝑅𝑂𝐸𝑖𝑡−1 + 𝜀𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑐𝑟,𝑖𝑡 ... 𝑅𝑂𝐸𝑖𝑡 = 𝛽50 + 𝛽51𝑑𝐵𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑖𝑡−1 + 𝛽52𝑑𝑁𝐵𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑖𝑡−1 + ⋯ + 𝛼55𝑅𝑂𝐸𝑖𝑡−1 + 𝜀𝑟𝑜𝑒,𝑖𝑡 (10) where 𝑑𝐵𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑖𝑡 and 𝑑𝐵𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑖𝑡−1 are vector, the dimension is [𝑇 − (𝑚 + 2) + 1]𝑁𝑥1. 𝑑𝐵𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑖𝑡 = [ 𝑑𝐵𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙1,𝑚+2 … 𝑑𝐵𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑁,𝑚+2 𝑑𝐵𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙1,𝑚+3 … 𝑑𝐵𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑁,𝑚+3 … 𝑑𝐵𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙1,𝑇 𝑑𝐵𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑁,𝑇 ] ,𝑑𝐵𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑖𝑡−1 = [ 𝑑𝐵𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙1,𝑚+1 … 𝑑𝐵𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑁,𝑚+1 𝑑𝐵𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙1,𝑚+2 … 𝑑𝐵𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑁,𝑚+2 … 𝑑𝐵𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙1,𝑇−1 𝑑𝐵𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑁,𝑇−1 ] (11) the variable 𝑑𝐵𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑖𝑡 is arranged as a column vector consisting of the first individual to n individuals in the m+1 year, then the column arrangement repeats below it for the first individual to n individuals in the m+3 year, and so on, the first individual to n individuals in the year m+3 to t. then the vector has dimensions [t-(m+2) + 1]nx1. the vector 𝑑𝐵𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑡−1 is arranged in the same way, but the data starts from time to m+1 to t-1. the ekananda dynamization analysis of capital inflow, credit allocation, … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 254 variable m is the desired amount of lag. the other variables, 𝐸𝑓𝑓𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡 and 𝑅𝑂𝐸𝑖𝑡 , are arranged similarly, but the data starts from time to m+1 to t-1. the independent variable vectors 𝐸𝑓𝑓𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡−1, and 𝑅𝑂𝐸𝑖𝑡−1 have dimension [t-(m+2)+1]nx1. 𝐸𝑓𝑓𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡−1 = [ 𝐸𝑓𝑓𝑖𝑐1,𝑚+1 … 𝐸𝑓𝑓𝑖𝑐𝑁,𝑚+1 𝐸𝑓𝑓𝑖𝑐1,𝑚+2 … 𝐸𝑓𝑓𝑖𝑐𝑁,𝑚+2 … 𝐸𝑓𝑓𝑖𝑐1,𝑇−1 𝐸𝑓𝑓𝑖𝑐𝑁,𝑇−1 ] and 𝑅𝑂𝐸𝑖𝑡−1 = [ 𝑅𝑂𝐸1,𝑚+1 … 𝑅𝑂𝐸𝑁,𝑚+1 𝑅𝑂𝐸1,𝑚+2 … 𝑅𝑂𝐸𝑁,𝑚+2 … 𝑅𝑂𝐸1,𝑇−1 𝑅𝑂𝐸𝑁,𝑇−1 ] (12) we can see that the dependent variables are arranged sequentially according to the individual, then repeated at different times. we combine all the independent variables in one equation in the next step. the matrix to the right of the first (independent) equation is denoted as 𝑊𝑑𝐵𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙,𝑡−1 with dimension [t-(m+2)+1]nx[t-(m+2)+1]xk. the matrix 𝑊𝑑𝐵𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙,𝑖𝑡−1 is a diagonal block consisting of a matrix w. here 𝑊𝑑𝑁𝐵𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙,𝑖𝑡−1 = 𝑊dcrnfb ,𝑖𝑡−1 = 𝑊𝐸𝑓𝑓𝑖𝑐,𝑖𝑡−1 = 𝑊𝑅𝑂𝐸,𝑖𝑡−1 according to variable name. the matrix format is 𝑊 = [ 𝑤𝑚+1 0 0 0 0 0 𝑤𝑚+2 0 0 0 0 0 𝑤𝑚+3 0 0 0 0 0 … … 0 0 0 … 𝑤𝑇] (13) matrix wm+1 and wm+2 have dimension [t-(m+2)+1]xk consists of data lag variables dbinflit, dnbinflit, dcrnfbit, efficit,and roeit that is 𝑤𝑚+1 = [ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 𝑑𝐵𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙1,𝑚+1 𝑑𝐵𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙2,𝑚+1 𝑑𝐵𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙3,𝑚+1 𝑑𝐵𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑁−1,𝑚+1 𝑑𝐵𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑁,𝑚+1 𝑑𝑁𝐵𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙1,𝑚+1 𝑑𝑁𝐵𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙2,𝑚+1 𝑑𝑁𝐵𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙3,𝑚+1 𝑑𝑁𝐵𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑁−1,𝑚+1 𝑑𝑁𝐵𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑁,𝑚+1 … … … … … … 𝑅𝑂𝐸1,𝑚+1 𝑅𝑂𝐸2,𝑚+1 𝑅𝑂𝐸3,𝑚+1 𝑅𝑂𝐸𝑁−1,𝑚+1 𝑅𝑂𝐸𝑁,𝑚+1 ] sampai 𝑤𝑇 = [ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 𝑑𝐵𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙1,𝑇 𝑑𝐵𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙2,𝑇 𝑑𝐵𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙3,𝑇 𝑑𝐵𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑁−1,𝑇 𝑑𝐵𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑁,𝑇 𝑑𝑁𝐵𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙1,𝑇 𝑑𝑁𝐵𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙2,𝑇 𝑑𝑁𝐵𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙3,𝑇 𝑑𝑁𝐵𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑁−1,𝑇 𝑑𝑁𝐵𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑁,𝑇 … … … … … … 𝑅𝑂𝐸1,𝑇 𝑅𝑂𝐸2,𝑇 𝑅𝑂𝐸3,𝑇 𝑅𝑂𝐸𝑁−1,𝑇 𝑅𝑂𝐸𝑁,𝑇 ] (14) ekananda dynamization analysis of capital inflow, credit allocation, … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 255 next, we combine all the equations into the matrix 𝐴𝑖𝑡. matrix 𝐴𝑖𝑡 is dependent and 𝐴𝑖𝑡−1 is independent with dimension [t-(m+2)+1]mxnx1. for five variables, where m is the number of variables, and n is the number of sections, then the dimensions of the matrix 𝐴𝑖𝑡 and 𝐴𝑖𝑡−1 are [t-(m+2)+1]5nx[t-(m+2)+1 ]mxk. the matrix format 𝐴𝑖𝑡−1 is 𝐴𝑖𝑡−1 = [ 𝑊𝑑𝐵𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙,𝑖𝑡−1 … 𝑊𝑅𝑂𝐸,𝑖𝑡−1 ] (15) pvar is condensed into 𝐴𝑖𝑡 = 𝛽0 + ∑ 𝛽𝑙𝑡 𝑚+1 𝑙=1 𝐴𝑖𝑡−𝑙 + 𝑋𝑖𝑡 + 𝜀𝑖𝑡 (16) matrix 𝑋𝑖𝑡is an exogenous variable 𝑋𝑖𝑡 = [𝑑𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑖𝑡 𝐿𝑛𝐺𝐷𝑃𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑖𝑡 𝑑𝐸𝑥𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑖𝑡 𝐿𝑛𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑐𝑟𝑖𝑡] (17) greene (2018) states that the unbiased estimator for 𝛽 is: �̂� = (𝑊𝑖𝑡−1 ′ 𝑉−1𝑊𝑖𝑡−1) −1𝑊𝑖𝑡−1 ′ 𝑉−1𝑌𝑖𝑡 = (∑ ∑ 𝜎 𝑖𝑗𝑊𝑖 ′𝑛 𝑗=1 𝑛 𝑖=1 ) −1 (𝑊𝑗 ∑ ∑ 𝜎 𝑖𝑗𝑊𝑖 ′𝑌𝑗 𝑛 𝑗=1 𝑛 𝑖=1 ) (18) impulse response function in standard var can be formed after the estimation process. in summary, pvar is iterated under conditions of stable pvar parameters. the iterated pvar model will form 3 parts, which are the average element , the estimated parameter matrix a and 𝑒𝑖𝑡−𝑗 pure innovation or in the form of a forecast shock 𝜀𝑖𝑡 to pay attention to the contemporaneous impact on pvar (enders, 2005). 𝐺𝑖𝑡 = 𝜇 + ∑ 𝐴1 𝑡 𝑒𝑖𝑡−𝑗 ∞ 𝑗=1 = 𝜇 + ∑ 𝜙𝑗𝜀𝑖𝑡−𝑗 ∞ 𝑗=1 (19) if the pvar consists of 2 variables (m=2), and  is the estimated pvar parameter and  is the contemporaneous parameter matrix parameter, then the irf form is as follows. [ 𝑑𝐵𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑖𝑡 𝑅𝑂𝐸𝑖𝑡 ] = [ 𝑑𝐵𝑁𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙̅̅ ̅̅ ̅̅ ̅̅ ̅̅ ̅̅ 𝑖𝑡 𝑅𝑂𝐸̅̅ ̅̅ ̅̅ 𝑖𝑡 ] + ∑ [ 𝛽11 𝛽12 𝛽21 𝛽22 ] 𝑖 ∞ 𝑖=1 1 (1−𝛼12𝛼21) [ 1 −𝛼12 −𝛼21 1 ] [ 𝜀𝑑𝐵𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙,𝑖𝑡−1 𝜀𝑅𝑂𝐸,𝑖𝑡−1 ] (20) equation 20 explains how impulse (rightmost epsilon notation) will produce a response from time to time on the rightmost variables (roe and inflation). this way, the researcher obtained a dynamic analysis of the inflation and roe variables due to disturbances. (hamilton, 1994). contemporaneous impact with cholesky's orthogonalization structure becomes become [ 1 0 −𝛼21 1 ] (21) ekananda dynamization analysis of capital inflow, credit allocation, … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 256 transmission and order using the cholesky method will produce two kinds of analysis, which are 1) analysis of responses that occur contemporaneous and 2) responses that occur in the next period after the impulse occurs. estimation, determination of maximum lag, measurement of pvar stability adopted using the stata program created by abrigo and love (2016). they also apply the matrix structure proposed by yang and lee, (2021) to estimate the parameter. the method for panel vector autoregressive has progressed and has been applied to various studies. the estimation steps are similar to the standard var method: model selection, stability measurement, and variable stationarity. testing the var model using time series data and panel var using panel data are very different. we need to test the unit root panel and select the fixed effict or common effict model for the panel data. the unit root panel test emerged on time-series data from the unit root test. the main difference from unit root testing on time series data is that, we have to decide on the asymptotic behavior of the time series according to the time dimension and the crosssectional dimension. recent literature shows that panel-based unit root tests have higher power compared to unit root tests based on individual time series. the method used for the panel unit root test is shahbaz et al. (2014) or pesaran (2007). the method for the panel unit root test considers the basic specifications of the adf. where: h0: null hypothesis if panel data has unit root h1: panel data does not have a unit root. we apply the var panel model selection procedure developed by abrigo and love (2016). the model selection method calculates the coefficient of determination of the overall model, hansen's statistic (hansen, (1982) in lee (2014), and the corresponding p-value. the model selection criterias are all based on the j hansen statistic. it requires the number of moment conditions to be greater than the number of endogenous variables in the model. the selection begins by using the most restrictive sample var panel model estimation with the highest order of lag used, for all models to be estimated by the program. this study tested the stability to ensure that the selected var model was stable. appropriate stability will determine proper impulse response function (irf) and variance decomposition (vd) analysis. this research’s test procedure followed abrigo and love (2016). they measure the stability of the var panel by calculating the modulus of each eigenvalue of the estimated model. lütkepohl (2005) and hamilton (1994) explain that the var model is stable if all the modulus of the companion matrices are all less than one. result and discussion referring to (samarina & bezemer, 2016), the following are the methods and data sources used in this study. the scope of the research covers some global countries within the timeframe of 1991to 2021. there are 39 (thirty-nine) selected countries in the world that are included in this study. the selection of countries and the research period mainly considering the availability of data, especially data on capital inflows for the banking sector and the non-bank sector, which data were sourced from the imf. ekananda dynamization analysis of capital inflow, credit allocation, … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 257 the present research needs to do a panel unit root test to ensure the stationarity of all panel data. we apply the method conducted by im et al. (2003) before. the unit root test panel uses the kao residual cointegration test (result in the table 4) on the variables used in the study. user-specified lag length at first lag indicates that the null hypothesis is rejected at hac variance 8.734871 and t statistic -2.920052. table 4 show the another test for non panel. levin, lin & chu also showed the cpintegration accour. data then will show the cointegration. table 4 unit root test kao-engle granger (panel data) t-statistic prob. adf -2.920052 0.0017 residual variance 6.603591 hac variance 8.720901 non panel data levin, lin & chu t* -6.98558 0.0000 im, pesaran and shin w-stat -23.7195 0.0000 adf fisher chi-square 577.660 0.0000 pp fisher chi-square 733.439 0.0000 null hypothesis: no cointegration simulation scenario will need to be conducted if there is a change share capital inflow to the non-bank sector to gdp (nbinfl). for all models, the exogenous variables consist of gdp growth (ggdp), inflation (inf), exchange rate (exrate), and concentration (concr). using all data, consisting of 39 countries from 1991 to 2020. this study uses panel data considering the heterogeneity at the banking level of oecd countries. the estimated parameters result in analysis that captures unobservable factors outside the model. the fixed effict method is applied to capture unobservable—factor problems outside the model. the use of all data will result in an analysis derived from the heterogeneity of all banks in oecd countries. however, sometimes grouping the data according to the data level will provide a more in-depth analysis. this study divides the analysis according to the level of data (high and low) gdp per capita, capital inflows to banks, and leverage ratios. this research will analyze all data during the initial stage to produce a response that all banks will accept in the involved countries. thus, there are 4 pvar models to be analyzed. model testing was also carried out on all pvar models. this study divides the two samples by calculating all data's 50% percentile value. we did not choose the mean as the divisor because percentiles divide according to the data distribution (anderson et al., 2017). in the following procedure, this study calculates the average of the variables by country. then, any average variable above the percentile value will be considered as the upper regime and the lower regime in other parts. 19 countries have higher per capita gdp levels than 20 other countries. the gdp per capita threshold is 26,047.67. nineteen countries have higher capital inflows to banks than 20 other countries. the threshold value of the capital inflow to the bank to gdp ratio is 85.50 percent. nineteen countries have high leverage ratios, they have higher leverage compared to the other 20 countries. the leverage ratio threshold is 94.95438 percent. ekananda dynamization analysis of capital inflow, credit allocation, … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 258 we apply the model selection procedure developed by abrigo and love (2016). a suitable option is pvar(1) model that could represent all pvar models. we assume that the dynamics between variables occurred one period ago. economic agents generally consider banking performance and economic developments in the previous period. the results of stability checks showed that the modulus is smaller than 1. pvar(1) showsed a stable model. long-term simulation is expected to go to a steady-state position. the measuring stability will follow the procedure from abrigo and love (2015). table 5 shows the test on all of the data model and the model with the distribution of the gdp regime, where the real, imaginary, and modulus values are below 1. table 5 real, imaginary and modulus kao-engle granger (panel data) t-statistic prob. adf -2.920052 0.0017 residual variance 6.603591 hac variance 8.720901 non panel data levin, lin & chu t* -6.98558 0.0000 im, pesaran and shin w-stat -23.7195 0.0000 adf fisher chi-square 577.660 0.0000 pp fisher chi-square 733.439 0.0000 null hypothesis: no cointegration table 6 shows tests on other models. the real, imaginary, and modulus values are all below 1. we can conclude that the models analyzed in this study are all stable. this stability follows the procedure determined by lütkepohl (2005) and hamilton (1994). table 6 real, imaginary and modulus upper binfl lower binfl upper leverage lower leverage real imag modulus real imag modulus real imag modulus real imag modulus 0.529 -0.116 0.542 0.583 0.056 0.589 0.711 0.000 0.711 0.624 0.056 0.624 0.529 0.116 0.542 0.583 -0.056 0.589 0.412 0.000 0.412 0.397 -0.056 0.397 0.276 0.000 0.276 -0.235 0.000 0.235 -0.012 0.172 0.173 -0.098 0.000 0.098 -0.223 0.000 -0.223 0.118 0.000 0.118 -0.012 -0.172 0.173 0.082 0.000 0.082 0.028 0.000 0.028 -0.037 0.000 0.037 0.070 0.000 0.070 -0.021 0.000 0.021 figure 1 on the left describes the response of bank performance (roe) to shock of the share of capital inflows to the non-bank sector to gdp (nbinfl). the increased flow of funds to the non-banking sector, such as corporation from outside the bank sectors,caused banks to face competition. figure 1 on the left shows the roe responding negatively. this study related with ben salah mahdi and boujelbene abbes (2018). further, figure 1 shows the credit allocation (crnfb) responding negatively in the early period. credit allocation, which is defined as the share of non-financial business loans to total bank loans. figure 1 on the right describes the response of efficiency (the ratio of total revenue to costs). in line with the decline in banking performance, the bank's total income from credit will decrease (anggraeni & berniz, 2022). ekananda dynamization analysis of capital inflow, credit allocation, … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 259 left center right figure 1 response of roe, crnfb, and efficiency to capital inflow to non-bank sector to gdp if in the previous simulation, the research assumes that the response occurs at all economic levels. in reality, the level of the economy and the challenges in each country are different. this study simulates the response that occurs at different levels of gdp per capita. a total of 19 countries have higher per capita gdp levels compared to the 20 other countries. the gdp per capita threshold is 26,047.67. the data processing results explain that figure 2 shows the response of roe, crnfb, and efficiency to nbinfl according to gdp per capita level. the vertical axis measures the response of each variable due to impulse capital inflow to the non-bank sector (nbinfl). by combining irf at high and low gdp per capita levels, we can see the difference in response. left center right figure 2 response of roe, crnfb, and efficiency to nbinfl at high and low gdp per capita figure 2 on the left describes the response of roe to nbinfl. the left axis describes the roe response at high gdp. the right axis describes the roe response at low gdp. changes in share capital inflows and banking roe in countries with high gdp negatively respond. these results explain that banks in countries with high gdp experience performance pressures, so roe has a negative impact. in contrast, banks in countries with low gdp experience a positive performance boost so that roe has an increasing impact. this result can be explained by the presence of ekananda and suryanto (2021). figure 2 explains the negative credit allocation response due to a shock to share capital inflows to the non-bank sector (nbinfl). this result is the same as the irf for banking in ekananda dynamization analysis of capital inflow, credit allocation, … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 260 general (middle figure 1). the increase in capital inflows to the non-bank sector initially put pressure on credit allocation. for a more extended period, credit allocation resulted in a negative response. banks in all countries have experiences for not being accepted or receiveing a negative response at the beginning of the period. the response returned to negative after briefly experiencing a positive response. the right-hand response unit is much smaller than the left-hand response unit. we conclude that, in general, the response to credit allocation is negative—the conclusion following the credit allocation response for all data. the resultant response amplitude is dominated by the credit allocation response of banks in countries with high gdp (hoang et al., 2021). figure 2 on the right side describes the efficiency of the response. the right-hand response unit is much smaller than the left-hand response unit. the resultant response amplitude is dominated by the efficiency response of banks in countries with high gdp. this resulted in the credit allocation response for all data. this study wants to deepen understanding in banking behavior regarding banks' high and low share of capital inflows (binfl). the high share capital inflow to banks (binfl) indicates high capital inflow to the banking sector. the banking sector will take advantage of capital inflows to credit channeled to the real sector. placement of funds through credit will improve banking efficiency and performance. a total of 19 countries have higher capital inflows to banks than 20 other countries. the threshold value of the capital inflow to the bank to gdp ratio is 85,49897 percent. the data processing results explain that figure 3 shows the response of roe, crnfb, and efficiency of the capital inflow to the non-bank sector and gdp according the level of binfl (hoang et al., 2021). by combining irf at high and low gdp per capita levels, we can see the difference in response. left center right figure 3 response of roe, crnfb, and efficiency to capital inflow to the non-bank sector (nbinfl) at high and low share of capital inflow to banks (binfl) figure 3 on the left describes the response of roe to nbinfl. the change in capital inflow share and banking roe in countries with high capital inflow to banks shows a negative response. from the beginning of the period to the end of the simulation, the roe response was negative. the roe response was also negative for banks with low capital inflow. the main difference occurs at the beginning of the simulation. at the beginning of the simulation, banks with higher capital inflows showed a negative response, while banks with lower capital inflows roe, responded positively with low values. banks dominated the resultant response with high capital inflows to banks. these results explain that banks ekananda dynamization analysis of capital inflow, credit allocation, … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 261 with high capital inflow experience a faster decline in roe compared to banks with low capital inflows. these results can be explained by the presence of ekananda (2017) and xu et al. (2018). the increase in capital inflows to the non-bank sector initially suppressed credit allocation in the banking group with high capital inflows to banks. in the banking group with low capital inflow to banks, there was a positive response but with a small value which could be seen on the figue 3 in the middle.. banks nominated the total response from both groups with high capital inflows to banks (vukas et al., 2022). this result is the same as the irf for banking in general (middle figure 1). we conclude that, in general, the response to credit allocation is negative. the resultant response amplitude is dominated by the credit allocation response of banks in countries with high gdp. suppose we look at the response efficiency of all data, we can see thatthe response shows negative from the beginning to the end of the period. the response efficiency value is small—figure 3 on the right of response efficiency for different banking groups. if banks with high capital inflows (to banks) start with a response of up to 0.2, the response value starts negatively in banks with low capital inflows to banks. this study wants to observe further on banking behavior regarding high and low leverage. high leverage shows the high total credit to the total deposit. distribution according to leverage is crucial because it relates to the company's ability to create profits and performance (hoang et al., 2021 and vukas et al. 2022). the higher the leverage, the higher the liabilities the banking sector must bear. leverage also showcases the bank's ability to utilize deposits that can be channeled as credit—that is why good credit management results in a good performance. this study is in relation to ben salah mahdi and boujelbene abbes (2018) studies. a total of 19 countries have high leverage ratios, higher leverage than 20 other countries. the leverage ratio threshold is 94,95438 percent. the data processing results explain that figure 4 shows the response of roe, crnfb, and efficiency to capital inflows to the non-bank sector according to leverage. by combining irf at high and low leverage levels, we can see the difference in response. left center right figure 4 response of roe, crnfb, and efficiency to capital inflow to the non-bank sector to gdp (nbinfl) at high and low of leverage ekananda dynamization analysis of capital inflow, credit allocation, … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 262 figure 4 on the left describes the shock on the share of capital inflows to the non-bank sector on gdp (nbinfl) in response to bank performance (roe). the change in share capital inflows and banking roe in high-leveraged countries shows a negative response. from the beginning of the period to the end of the simulation, the roe response was negative. for banks with low leverage, the roe response is also negative. the main difference occurs at the beginning of the simulation. at the beginning of the simulation, banks with high leverage showed a negative response, while roe responded positively for banks with lower leverage,. highly leveraged banks dominate the resultant response. these results explained that banks with highher leverage actually experience a faster decline in roe than banks with low leverage. these results can be explained by the presences of hoang et al., (2021) and vukas et al. (2022). all banking groups showed a negative response. the result is the same as using the data. we can conclude that the difference in leverage is not the trigger for lowering credit allocation (figure 4 middle). the total responses from both groups show the same results as the irf for banking in general (figure 1 middle). we conclude that, in general, the response to credit allocation is negative. if we look at the response efficiency of all data, the response shows negative from the beginning to the end of the period (figure 4, right). the same results were obtained for the banking group in accordance to their leverage. currently, the increase in capital inflow to non-banks is growing rapidly as an alternative funding source. when capital inflows to banks are getting more expensive, capital inflows to non-banks are becoming a source of funding with higher demand. banks are under pressure to channel their funds through credit transmission, which then reducing bank profits. the results of this study support the past study conducted by bezemer et al. (2017). a negative shift occurred in non-financial business loans as this sector received funds directly outside the bank's line of credit. there is pressure on banks to gain profits from lending. meanwhile, when interest and operating costs are increased, they might result in lower efficiency as the profit ratio to costs. irf studies on all samples reflect responses in heterogeneous situations that are more diverse. these results support raza (2019) research in oecd countries. by dividing the sample data according to the 50% percentile group, we can analyze more deeply in a more integrated economic situation. research by raza (2019) shows heterogeneity between fdi and economic growth in oecd countries. the data grouping into several countries according to fdi and economic growth rates shows more analytical results. the research results using panel data are more interesting than time series data if we summarize the responses from various sub-samples. generally, the third to eleventhperiod response corresponds to the response to all data. we start the discussion from the roe response. table 7 column roe summarizes figures 2 to 4 left side. the roe response of countries with gdp per capita, the share of capital inflow to banks, and high leverage are always negative. response roe is positive for low levels. the data processing results correspond to the negative roe response in the total sample. the negative roe response in the total sample is caused by the negative roe response in countries with high gdp per ekananda dynamization analysis of capital inflow, credit allocation, … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 263 capita. the countries with high gdp per capita, the changes in capital inflows to the nonbank sector significantly disrupted the development of lending to the non-banking sector. these results follow the research of igan and tan (1995). table 7 summary of response variables to nbinfl response roe crnfb leverage 0-2 3-5 6-11 0-2 3-5 6-11 0-2 3-5 6-11 total sample 0 0 0 gdppercap : high ----0 ++ 0 ++ + 0 gdppercap : low + + 0 -0 0 share of capital inflow to banks : high ---0 ++ 0 ++ + 0 share of capital inflow to banks : low ++ + 0 -0 0 leverage: high --0 -0 -0 leverage : low ++ + 0 -0 -0 conclusion several studies have used the panel var (pvar) model to calculate the irf by considering the impact of specific country characteristics due to the shock transmission of economic variables. this article investigates the response to roe as a variable of bank performance, the share of non-financial business loans to total bank loans, and bank efficiency due to changes in capital inflow to the non-bank sector. this study is interesting because the change of share capital inflow to the non-bank sector occurs in current capital flows. the greater the mobility of funds, the greater possibility to change the model to the banking sector or directly to the non-bank sector. we use data from 39 countries from the year 1990–2020. the trend of globalization and financial system integration that continue to increase in line with increasing capital flows is the focus of discussion in this research. this study has analyzed the dynamic vector autoregressive model on panel data. the use of panel data is to deepening the research on banking performance that considers the diversity of banking between countries. we divided the research data into sub-sample upper and lowered regimes based on the 50% percentile value. the aim is to obtain interesting differences in characteristics and taking them into account to the characteristics of countries and characteristics according to the regime of gdp per capita, leverage, and capital inflow. all pvar models show stability on the order of one (p=1), so we can analyze the response of banking performance due to changes in credit allocation. changes in capital inflows in the non-bank sector significantly affected the allocation of bank credit. in line with the hypothesis, an increase in non-bank capital inflows negatively correlates with bank credit allocation. in general, an increase in the allocation of bank credit has led to higher bank profits. irf analysis on the sub-sample data according to the upper and lower regimes is under the irf analysis on all data. analysis of the sub-sample helps deepen the analysis at the ekananda dynamization analysis of capital inflow, credit allocation, … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 264 upper and lower regime levels. all analyzes focused on changes in the share of capital inflows to the non-bank sectorand the response to roe as a variable of bank performance, the share of non-financial business loans to total bank loans, and bank efficiency. at the beginning of the period, the shock share of capital inflows were responded negatively by roe and credit allocation. negative responses occur in various variable regimes of gdp per capita, the share of capital inflow to banks, and leverage. we can conclude that changes in the share of capital inflows cause changes in bank performance at various levels of the regime. an increase in the share of capital inflows to the non-bank sector will affect bank performance. the decline in bank performance and bank efficiency decreases. this phenomenon applies at various levels of the regime. the most interesting results were obtained by dividing the sample into subgroups, which helped the researcher understand each regime's different roles and transmissions. the gdp per capita is high. banks can utilize all resources at a high gdp per capita without being affected by internal banking conditions. at low gdp per capita, the economy's ability is challenging to support inefficient banking and weak resources. in a situation where the share of capital inflow to banks is high, banks in any situation can continue to develop their business without disrupting their profits. references abrigo, m. r. m., & love, i. 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studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 2, oktober 2018, hlm. 152-156 doi: 10.18196/jesp.19.2.5006 comparison of sector stock returns consumer and construction sector companies on the indonesia stock exchange christian, rinaldi rustam faculty of economic, universitas trisakti jl. kyai tapa no. 1, grogol, jakarta barat, indonesia correspondence e-mail: naldyrinaldi@yahoo.com received: july 2018; accepted: october 2018 abstract: this research attempts to analyze risk and stock return of consumption for goods industry and construction industry at indonesian stock exchange. this research used documentation method to collect data. data has been taken from bloomberg terminal. the samples are 4 corporations, with two corporations for each industry from the year 2011 until 2016. this research used capital asset pricing model (capm) and arbitrage pricing theory (apt) for data analysis. analytically, the capital asset pricing model (capm) has poor overall explanatory power, whereas the arbitrage pricing theory (apt) model allows multiple sources of systematic risks to be taken into account and performs better than the capm, in all the tests considered. the dependent variable used in this study is the stock return. the result showed that there is no effect between inflation and all of stocks used in research but has a different sign between consumer and construction with negative and positive effect respectively. keywords: capm, apt, risk and return of stock. jel classification: g12, g13, d81, c01 introduction the state economic development can be measured by knowing the grade of capital market development and security industries which placed on the state itself. a capital market is a place for a various party especially selling stock and bond in order to be used as an additional fund from the sales results or strengthen the company fund (fahmi, 2009). or according to shim and siegel (1999:68) stock market is a central trade for a long-term bond or firm’s stock. common stock is ownership proof of the company (husnan, 2009), the proof of the ownership whether it is incorporated/ limited liability company or public company (gumanti, 2011). usually, each share gives the holder the rights to vote at a general meeting of shareholders. in general, investment in stocks allows for higher returns compared to bonds, even though the risk involved is also higher. consumer goods are one of the attractive sectors to be an option for investment. associated with the increase in world crude oil prices, this industry tends to survive because it is an industry to meet the daily needs which needed by the community. and construction is the foundation for the development of an area or country that supports the economic growth of the region and country. data return on the idx consumer sector and construction stock index from 2011 to 2016. research method in general, the theory related to investing inment management experience very rapid development from time to time. at least there are five theories that can be useful to underlie investment management. these theories consist of portfolio theory, capital market theory, valuate of derivative securities. the variable in this study is a risk and return. based on the variable which was stated, comparison of sector stock returns consumer … (christian, rinaldi rustam) 153 the design of the study began by collecting data in a documenting way in the bloomberg terminal, then proceeded to analyze the data with the capm and apm methods to report the results of the research. a risk is a form of uncertainty about a situation that will occur later with a decision taken based on a consideration (fahmi, 2009). another understanding is the deviation between the expected return measured by beta. expected return is giving the weight of the average return by using the probability weight. this measures the average or central tendency of the return probability distribution. expected is the sum of the results of the multiplication of rate of return that may occur in a period with probability. the population here is the construction sector industrial company listed on the indonesia stock exchange. in 2011-2016 there were 4 issuers. the sampling method uses purposive sampling, with the sample selection criteria of this study: companies classified as consumer goods industries and construction sectors that have gone public, and are lq45. issue complete, clear financial statements and publish their financial statements from 2011-2016. data is taken from the bloomberg webpage. the analysis which used in this study is using the capital asset pricing model – capital asset pricing model and arbitrage pricing theory. the capm definition is an asset risk and profit valuation theory based on beta coefficients. capm is a model for determining the price of an asset. this model bases itself on equilibrium conditions the level of profit indicated by investors for a stock will be affected by that risk. the risk here is no longer interpreted as the standard deviation of the profit level but is measured by beta. the use of this parameter is consistent with portfolio theory which says that if the investor holds a market portfolio, then this risk contribution is nothing but beta. capm actually forms the model using a series of simplification assumptions. testing a model is not realistic about the assumptions used, but on how precisely the model reflects reality. nevertheless, it is explained how if some of these assumptions are relaxed, namely how if short selling is not permitted and what if there is no rr. the result turns out that the standard capm does not experience much change in risk-free, which is used in this study is fr0031 which is government bond that distributes fixed rate coupons by 11% every quarter and mature in 2020. capm in mathematics: e(ri) = rf + [e(rm) – rf]bj where: bj = is a systematic independent variable that determines the e(ri) or expected profit of an asset or a risk-measure of each security. rf = risk-free asset e(rm) = estimated market risk e(rm) – r = investor risk premium variables that related to the capm formula according to arianto are as follows: individual stock returns (ri) sharpe et al. (1999) stated that stock returns will be influenced by two basic characters, which are namely systemic risk and stock liquidity and the research conducted by saputra, elly, and leng (2002) succeded in proving that systemic risk and stock liquidity as measured by the bid-ask spread has an effect significant on stock returns from business entities that go public in indonesia. individual stock returns can be calculated by the following formula: return saham individual where: pt = price for time (t) pt-1 = price for previous time d1 = dividend risk-free (rf) the result of investment without risk is the minimum return expected by investors according to the treynor and sharpe (sharpe et al., 1999) models. this riskless investment object 154 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan vol. 19, no. 2, oktober 2018: 152-156 includes bank deposits and indonesia bank certificates (sbi). deposit rate and s. market return (rm) market return is calculated by the following formula: rm = where: ihsgt = composite stock price index at the end of period t ihsg-1 = composite stock price index for the previous period. beta (βi) beta is calculated by the following formula (samsul, 2006) βi = according to supranto, (2001:183) covariance formula as follows: ∑ ∑ ∑ according to irianto, (2004), varian's formula as follows: ∑ x expected return (eri) once ri, rf, rm, and βi are known, the capm formulation is used to determine the expected return of the capm formula as follows: r r r where: e (ri) = return is expected as a minimum return βi = beta shares r = average level of risk-free return r = average market return arbitrage pricing theory this theory was made by stephen ross in 1976. it is based on the law of one price, which states that two identical assets cannot be sold at different prices. apt assumes that asset returns are linearly related to a number of indices where each index represents a factor that influences return on an asset. market participants develop their expectations about sensitivity to factors. apt states that the equilibrium of market prices will adjust to eliminate arbitrage opportunities that indicate a situation where a zero investment portfolio can be formed which will generate risk-free profits. result and discussion this study wants to test the overall of the consumer goods industry sector companies and construction sector companies listed on the indonesia stock exchange. however, only 4 issuers from companies that have been tested for the company's fundamentals are only taken and are consistently included in lq45. lq45 itself stands for liquidity 45 which consists of 45 issuers' shares which are re-evaluated every few months. the rate of return is the result obtained from the investment. systematically the monthly return of individual shares is formulated as follows: return saham individual where: pt = price for time (t) pt-1 = price for previous time d1 = dividend by using stock prices, the results of the calculation of stock returns during 2011-2016 are obtained. after it is known that the individual returns of four issuers during 2011-2016 are then regressed using eviews. by using the composite stock price index (cspi) market performance, the results were obtained: comparison of sector stock returns consumer … (christian, rinaldi rustam) 155 table 1. estimation of stock returns during 2011-2016 no stock aj capm & abt beta inflation coef prob coef prob coef prob coef prob 1 ptpp 0.128 0.002 0.125 0.003 1.969 0.000 0.019 0.434 2 wika 0.090 0.006 0.086 0.008 1.677 0.000 0.0312 0.118 3 icbp 0.020 0.309 0.020 0.311 1.049 0.000 -0.001 0.927 4 indf 0.008 0.675 0.008 0.676 1.045 0.000 -0.000 0.982 note: prob t stat significant on alpha 5% by using the composite stock price index (ihsg) market return, with a significance level of 5% from the output table, the analysis with alpha jensen’s model obtained positive alpha (α) values for all the shares studied and the composite stock price index, which means the return generated by these stocks are higher than the market. capm beta value on these stocks shows significant results and a positive effect on returns. where in the shares of ptpp, wika, icbp, and indf the resulting beta coefficients are 1.9, 1.6, 1.04 and 1.04 times greater than the market. this means that if the market experiences a 1 percent increase, the return of each of these stocks will increase to 1.9, 1.6, 1.04 and 1.04 percent of the market. the performance of these stocks is indicated to be able to produce abnormal returns (abnormal) in an inefficient market. in this model, beta has a significant and positive influence on the return of these stocks. but with a greater beta value, the performance of the two mutual funds is better than in this model. however, in the inflation variable, all the shares studied produced a non-significant relationship (no sig), except that there were differences in influence, namely for ptpp and wika shares to have a positive influence while icbp and indf had negative effects. from the results of testing the 2 alpha jensen models above, namely with the capital asset pricing model (capm) and arbitrage pricing theory (apt), the construction sector shares are ptpp and wika. the potential generated by these stocks can be greater than risk-free, namely fr0031 and benchmark, namely the jci. this can be seen in the alpha and beta values generated in the model tend to be larger, which indicates a greater abnormal return occurs in an inefficient market. in addition, because they are a stock investment instrument, it does produce a higher return potential which is normal compared to other investment instruments. conclusion based on the research that has been done, it can be concluded that: 1. inflation variables have no significant effect on 2 issuers in the construction sector, namely wika and ptpp and have a positive effect. 2. inflation variables have no significant effect on issuers in the consumption sector, namely indf and icbp and have a negative effect. recommendation from the results of the research conducted, the authors provide several suggestions, namely: construction industry sector companies such as wijaya karya tbk, and pp (persero) tbk. those listed on the indonesia stock exchange (idx) are affected by macroeconomic factors on the return of shares in the company and the construction sector shares have a higher return than shares in the consumption sector due to the tendency of indonesia in this period in building infrastructure. so that there needs to be anticipation from the government to prepare for a decrease in stock value due to the transfer of focus from the government so that investors do not feel harmed. the government is also expected to be able to keep the inflation rate at a stable level in 156 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan vol. 19, no. 2, oktober 2018: 152-156 order to boost the economy and not undermine share values due to increased inflation. references fahmi, i., and hadi, y.l. (2009). teori portofolio dan analisis investasi. bandung: alfabeta. gumanti, t.a. (2011). manajemen investasi: konsep, teori dan aplikasi. jakarta: mitra wacana media. husnan, s. (2009). dasar-dasar teori portofolio dan analisis sekuritas. yogyakarta: penerbit upp stim ykpn. irianto, a. (2004). konsep dasar dan aplikasinya. edisi 1. jakarta: prenada. ross, s.a. (1976). the arbitrage theory of capital asset pricing. journal of economic theory, elsevier. 13(3), 341-360. samsul, m. (2006). pasar modal dan manajemen portofolio. jakarta: erlangga. saputra, k.a., elly, and leng, p. (2002). pengaruh risiko sistematis dan likuiditas terhadap tingkat pengembalian saham badan-badan usaha yang go-public di bursa efek jakarta pada tahun 1999. jurnal manajemen dan kewirausahaan. petra christian university siwalankerto. surabaya. sharpe, w., alexander, g.j., and bailey, j.w. (1999). investments 6th edition. prentice-hall, englewood cliffs. shim, j.k., and siegel, j.g. (1999). operations management. hauppauge, ny: barron's educational series supranto, j. (2001). statistik teori dan aplikasi. edisi 6. jakarta: erlangga. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 1, april 2018, hlm. 35-40 doi: 10.18196/jesp.19.1.4297 exchange rate fluctuations and nigeria's capital account (odusanya, adesoye, gbadamosi) 35 exchange rate fluctuations and nigeria's capital account ibrahim abidemi odusanya, adesola bolaji adesoye, ayinla idris gbadamosi department of economics, olabisi onabanjo university, p.m.b. 2002, ago-iwoye, nigeria correspondence e-mail: ibrahim.odusanya@oouagoiwoye.edu.ng abstract: this paper examines the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on the capital account in nigeria from 1980 to 2015. the data used for the study were retrieved from the central bank of nigeria bulletin. the study employed johansen co-integration test, error correction model (ecm) and fully modified ordinary least square (fmols). evidence from the study shows that exchange rate has no effect on the capital account. as a result of the study, production in the nigerian economy must be encouraged through availability of domestic credit while market determined interest rate should be encouraged to stimulate economic growth and investment key words: exchange rate, nominal domestic credit, balance of payments jel classification: c22, f31, f32, f41 introduction the strong foreign exchange rate and surplus balance of payments are some of the key factors of a nation’s development. they are factors essential for comparing a country’s relationship with other nations. inflation rate, foreign direct investment, external reserve, external debt, and interest rate among other variables determine the exchange rate of a country, which directly or indirectly affect the balance of payments and the nigerian economy at large. in 1973 and 1979, the exchange rate was relatively stable as due oil boom. however, nigeria started recording huge balance of payments deficits and very low foreign reserve in the mid-80s. this was evident after the introduction of the structural adjustment program (sap), which led to continued depreciation of the naira with a view to achieve a realistic exchange rate that would facilitate improved macroeconomic performance and diversify the productive base of the economy. following the adoption of the structural adjustment program (sap) in 1986, the country has moved away from a pegged to a flexible exchange rate regime. despite the efforts of the nigerian government to maintain a relatively stable rate of exchange, the naira has continued to depreciate before and after the introduction of the guided deregulation of 1994 when the exchange rate was 21.886 naira against the us dollar. during the global financial crisis in 2008, the exchange rate of the naira further depreciated to n150.01 at the end of 2009 (aliyu, 2009). as at the last quarter of 2017, one us dollar exchanged for 305 naira. nigeria’s foreign trade structure did not satisfy the conditions for a successful balance of payments policy because of the over reliance on importation, low level of production and exportation of goods. exportation of crude petroleum and agricultural produce, whose prices are predetermined in the world market with low imports and export price elasticity of demand, characterized the country’s foreign structure. all of these have contributed to the worsening position of the balance of payments (bop). exchange rate management in nigeria has been very poor. it has been pernicious to trade, with the country being a consistent net importer. 36 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 1, april 2018: 35-40 the fluctuations in exchange rate do exert on the current and capital account balances (kandil, 2009). the current and capital account deficit may be beneficial to developing countries if foreign debt complements low capital formation of the internal economy and consequently stimulates economic growth. on the other hand, empirical evidence shows that running a large and persistent current and capital account deficit may be risky and even detrimental to the economy. given the fact that nigeria is still fulfilling a number of loan obligations to international financial organizations, it is quite apt and imperative to examine how movements in the country's exchange rate affect the capital account component of the bop. thus, contrary to earlier studies, this paper specifically examines the effects of exchange rate on capital account in nigeria. the paper is divided into five sections. section 2 reviews relevant literature. in section 3, we present data and the methodology of the study. section 4 contains our results while section 5 concludes the paper. frenkel (2004) examined aggregate employment behaviour in response to real exchange rate movements in argentina, brazil, chile and mexico between 1980 and 2003. real exchange rate has long-run negative impact on current account component of the balance of payments. isard (2007) found evidence that the alignments of exchange rates have a critical influence on the rate of growth of per capita output in low-income countries and the balance of payments difficulties. obaseki (2000) and aliyu (2007) examined nigeria’s foreign exchange management regimes as well as mechanisms of fixing the critical challenges associated with foreign exchange in the economy. their studies equally addressed foreign exchange dynamics and established that nigeria’s external trade policies have not been significantly achieving expected macroeconomic targets. ozturk and acaravci (2010) used autoregressive distributed lag model to investigate the thirlwall hypothesis for south africa. the study found evidence in support of the thirlwall hypothesis. thus, equilibrium income was equal to the actual income growth. in addition, imports were cointegrated with relative prices and equilibrium growth rate. patricia and osi (2010) examined the balance of payments equilibrium in the west african monetary zone. the results of withincountry effects and the cross-country effects indicate that interest rate and growth in output play a significant role in achieving a favourable balance of payments. oyovwi (2012) offered empirical evidence on the impact of real exchange rate volatility on nigeria’s import and the balance of payments. the result indicated that real exchange rate volatility had no significant effect on nigeria’s imports and balance of payments. imoisi (2012) examined the trends in nigeria’s balance of payment. the results indicate a significant relationship between balance of payments, exchange rate and interest rate. agundu, akani and kpakol (2013) investigated exchange rate dynamics and balance of payments repositioning in nigeria, using the multiple regression and log linear methods of data analysis covering the period 19862008. the findings showed that the current and the capital account of balance of payment have significant relationship with exchange rate, external reserves and external debt. umoru and odjegba (2013) analysed the relationship between exchange rate misalignment and balance of payments (bop) mal-adjustment in nigeria using the vector error correction modeling technique and granger causality tests. exchange rate misalignment has a positive impact on the nigeria’s balance of payments position. the granger pairwise causality test result indicated a unidirectional causality running from exchange rate misalignment to balance of payments adjustment in nigeria. odili (2014) studied the effect of exchange rate and balance of payments exchange rate fluctuations and nigeria's capital account (odusanya, adesoye, gbadamosi) 37 using autoregressive distributed lag modeling in nigeria. a statistically significant positive relationship exists between exchange rate and balance of payments in the long-run while the relationship is insignificant in the short run. odili (2015) examined effects of exchange rate trends and volatility on imports in nigeria. it was found that exchange rate trends had positive and significant effect on imports in the long-run. research method model specification to examine the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on balance of payments in nigeria, the model of oladipupo and onotaniyohuwo (2011) was adapted: bop = f(exrt,ms,rout,price,intr,inf, domc) ………………………………… (1) where bop is balance of payments, exrt is exchange rate, ms is money supply, rout is real output, price is price level, intr is interest rate, inf is inflation rate and domc is nominal domestic credit. however, to capture the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on capital account component of balance of payments, we have the following model: cpa = β0+β1 log exrt +β2 log ndc +β3 infr +β4 intr + β5 extr + μ…………. (2) cpa= capital account component of balance of payments, β1,β2,β3,β4,β5 are the parameters estimates while μ is the stochastic term. akaike information criteria (aic) and schwarz information criterion (sic) were used to determine the optimal lag length for the model. estimation techniques the study employed johansen co-integration test, error correction model (ecm) and fully modified ordinary least square (fmols) to show the proportion of the variable effect on the capital account components of the balance of payments. results and discussion unit root test given the peculiar non-stationarity of most time series, the augmented dickey fuller test is used to confirm the order of integration of the series. table 1. unit root test result variables adf critical value @ 5% order of integration(adf) cpa -4.686015 -2.963972 i(1) extr -4.150587 -2.957110 i(1) infl -4.890132 -2.963972 i(1) intr -8.010686 -2.963972 i(1) lndc -6.045828 -2.954021 i(1) lexr -4.954605 -2.963972 i(1) the results show that all of the series are stationary at first difference. the test statistics for current account, exchange rate, nominal domestic credit, interest rate, inflation rate and external reserve are all higher than the 5% critical value. therefore, the null hypothesis of a unit root is rejected and they are all integrated of order one, i (1). co-integration test the results of the co-integration tests in table 2 indicates the existence of one co-integrating equation in the model. the null hypothesis of no cointegration is rejected. 38 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 1, april 2018: 35-40 table 2. unrestricted co-integration tests unrestricted co-integration rank test hypothesized trace 0.05 max-eigen 0.05 no. of ce(s) statistic critical value statistic critical value none * 111.0439 95.75366 35.42503 40.07757 at most 1 * 75.61889 69.81889 28.64444 33.87687 at most 2 46.97445 47.85613 27.85902 27.58434 at most 3 19.11543 29.79707 10.59879 21.13162 at most 4 8.516645 15.49471 6.132158 14.26460 at most 5 2.384488 3.841466 2.384488 3.841466 therefore, the variables converge in the long run, thereby depicting the existence of long run relationship among the capital account, exchange rate, nominal domestic credit, interest rate, inflation rate and external reserve. error correction model table 3. parsimonious error correction model estimation variables coefficient standard error t-statistics p–value d(cpa(-1) 0.284090 0.310601 0.914644 0.3748 d(cpa(-2)) 1.064452 0.407615 2.611412** 0.0196 d(extr(-1) 7.28e-05 0.000646 0.112725 0.9117 d(extr(-2) 0.000710 0.000818 0.867192 0.3995 d(lexr(-1) -84725.90 25232.89 -3.357757*** 0.0043 d(lexr(-2) -29943.23 20670.61 -1.448590 0.1680 d(infl(-1) 365.9251 276.0100 1.325768 0.2048 d(infr(-1) 91.74485 373.6152 0.245560 0.8094 d(lndc(-1) -16264.73 23630.33 -0.688299 0.5018 d(lndc(-2) -32255.49 23417.07 -1.377435 0.1886 d(intr(-1) 15594.97 4643.022 3.358798*** 0.0043 d(intr(-2) 4997.937 1715.766 2.912948** 0.0107 d(lexr(-3) -85199.92 20336.83 -4.189439*** 0.0008 d(lndc(-3) 0.015888 0.018456 0.860825 0.4029 c 36453.51 13102.20 2.782244** 0.0140 ect(-1) -0.709044 0.225473 -3.144690*** 0.0067 *,**, *** imply significance at 10%, 5% and 1% level respectively table 3 shows the result of the parsimonious error correction model for the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on capital account using a parsimonious approach. this was set at lag 3 in accordance with lag selection to show the time lag it takes the capital account to converge back to equilibrium from disequilibrium. based on the result, the error correction term has the correct sign (negative) meaning that about 70.90 percent of the errors being corrected yearly. it implies that the adjustment takes place relatively quickly. it also implies that when there is any disturbance, convergence to equilibrium is relatively high with 70.90 percent of adjustment occurring in the first year. consequently, for an initial error of 1 percent, 70.90 percent of the error would be corrected in the first year. bannerjee et al (1998) noted that a highly significant error correction term is further proof of a stable long-term relationship. granger (1986) also noted that the existence of a significant exchange rate fluctuations and nigeria's capital account (odusanya, adesoye, gbadamosi) 39 error is evidence of causality in at least one direction. in terms of the significance of the individual variables, one and two year lagged external reserve has positive effects on the capital account component of the balance of payments but it is statistically insignificant. in addition, one and two year lagged inflation rate has no effect on the capital account. meanwhile, one and two year-lagged interest rates have significant positive effect on the capital account. even though one and three year-lagged exchange rates have significant negative effect on capital account, it is insignificant for the two year lagged period. in addition, while one and two year lagged period of nominal domestic credit have statistically no effect on capital account, it has positive effect on the capital account component of the balance of payments for the three year lagged period. furthermore, interest rates for one and two year lagged period have statistically no effect on capital account. table 4. long run coefficient of the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on capital account dependent variable: cpa method: fully modified ordinary least squares (fmols) variable coefficient std. error t-statistic prob. lexr 3793.387 3976.883 0.953859 0.3486 extr -0.000626 0.000189 -3.307258*** 0.0027 lndc 6265.805 4128.127 1.517832 0.1407 infl 0.717687 0.087198 8.230574*** 0.0000 intr -5363.433 882.0220 -6.080838*** 0.0000 c -104692.2 100578.4 -1.040901 0.3072 *** implies significance at 1% table iv indicates the effect of exchange rate on capital account. exchange rate, nominal domestic credit, inflation rate, interest rate and external reserve were regressed on capital account in order to determine the long run effect of the variables. the study also shows that exchange rate, nominal domestic credit and inflation rate have a positive effect on capital account while interest rate and external reserve have negative effect on the capital account. obviously, the relationship between exchange rate, inflation rate and external reserve and the capital account does not conform to postulations in economic theory. however, the relationship between of nominal domestic credit, interest rate and the capital account are in tandem with theoretical expectation. in term of the significance of the individual variables, inflation rate, interest rate and external reserve are statistically significant at 1 percent while exchange rate and nominal domestic credit are not significant. conclusion the result from the estimation of the model indicates that exchange rate and nominal domestic credit have positive association with the capital account in nigeria. from the result, it shows that higher exchange rate improves the capital account. that is, as exchange rate depreciates (falls), the capital account does not improve. however, nominal domestic credit improves the capital account of balance of payment components. more so, the results also show that an increase in external reserves worsens the capital account of balance of payments, while an increase in inflation and interest rates does not worsen the capital accounts. from our findings, it has become imperative for the government to formulate policies towards curbing inflationary tendency, encourage market-determined interest rate that would stimulate production, consumption and investment in order to increase the country’s external reserve thereby bringing about favorable 40 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 1, april 2018: 35-40 balance of payments position. more so, the domestic credit rates have to be efficiently managed by the monetary authority to encourage and improve our balance of payments position and proper means of monitoring has to be introduced towards ensuring that available credit is being channeled to the right sector in order to improve the capital account. references agundu u.c, akani w.h and kpakol f.b (2013). exchange rate dynamics and balance of payment repositioning in nigeria. european journal of business and management 5(29), 84−91. alexander, s. (1952). effects of devaluation on a trade balance. imf staff paper, april. international monetary fund, washington dc. aliyu, s.u.r. (2009). impact of oil price shock and exchange rate volatility on economic growth in nigeria: an empirical investigation. research journal of international studies, 11, 4–15. aliyu, s. u. r. (2007). import export demand functions and balance of payments stability in nigeria: a co-integration and error correction modeling. journal of social and management sciences 20(2), 116-120. bannerjee a, dolado j. and mestre r. (1998). error correction mechanism test for cointegration in the single equation framework. journal of time series analysis 19, 267-283. frenkel, r. (2004). real exchange rate and employment in argentina, brazil, chile and mexico. draft paper prepared for the g24 conference, mexico. imoisi, a. i. (2012). trends in nigeria balance of payments: an empirical analysis from 1970–2010. european journal of business and management 4, 210–217. isard, p. (2007). equilibrium exchange rates: assessment methodologies. imf working paper wp/07/296, international monetary fund, washington dc. kandil, m. (2009). exchange rate fluctuations and balance of payments: channels of interaction in developing and developed countries. the journal of economic integration 24(1), 151-174. obaseki, a. e. (2000). balance of payment: issues and crises. the bullion 20(3), 130-131. odili, o. (2015). effect of exchange rate trend and volatility on imports in nigeria: implications for macroeconomic policy. international journal of economics, commerce and management 3(7), odili. o. (2014). exchange rate and balance of payment: an autoregressive distributed lag (ardl): an econometric investigation on nigeria. iosr journal of economics and finance 4(6) 21-30. oladipupo, a. o. and onotaniyohuwo, f. o. (2011). impact of exchange rate on balance of payment in nigeria. international multidisciplinary journal, ethiopia, 5(4), 7388. onyinye, o. g. (2012). the effect of exchange rate on the nigerian balance of payments (19702010). amorji-nike: caritus university. oyovwi, o.d. (2012). exchange rate volatility and imports in nigeria. academic journal of interdisciplinary studies 1(2), 103-114. ozturk, l. and acaravci, a. (2010). an application of thirlwall law to the south african economy: evidence from ardl bounds testing approach. patricia, a. a., and osi, c. i. (2010). balance of payments adjustment in the west african monetary zone experience. journal of economic and monetary integration 10, 100– 116. umoru, d. and odjegba, o.p. (2013). exchange rate misalignment and balance of payment adjustment in nigeria. european scientific journal 9 (13), 260-273. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 1, april 2016, hlm. 71-76 doi: 10.18196/jesp.17.1.3634 mekanisme transmisi harga internasional dalam rangka penetapan kebijakan harga oleh pemerintah terhadap beberapa komoditas hasil pertanian tertentu didi nuryadin, rini dwi astuti, ardito bhinadi fakultas ekonomi dan bisnis, upn veteran yogyakarta, jalan swk 104, condongcatur, depok, sleman, daerah istimewa yogyakarta email korespondensi: didinuryadin@gmail.com naskah diterima: januari 2016; disetujui: april 2016 abstract: this study aimed to analyze the mechanism of transmission of international prices in the context of preparing the government's policy of controlling prices through the pricing of certain agricultural commodities. this price control in order to ensure stability of prices of agricultural commodities so as to support and ensure the economic stability. the analytical tool used is regression to the data period used was may 2009 to december 2013. the results showed that the increase in retail price increases in producer prices which indicates that the market red peppers, chicken meat and fresh fish are not integrated perfectly. variation changes in retail prices is a source of variation and the producer price changes have a significant relationship between producer prices at retail prices. changes in retail prices is not transmitted completely to the producer price which the retail price increases pushed up producer prices. keywords: the transmission mechanism, international prices, domestic prices, pricing policies, agricultural commodities jel classification: q13, q18, l11, f40, e31, e23, d4 abstrak: penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis mekanisme transmisi harga internasional dalam rangka penyusunan kebijakan pemerintah dalam pengendalian harga melalui penetapan harga komoditas pertanian tertentu. pengendalian harga ini dalam rangka menjamin stabilitas harga komoditas pertanian sehingga dapat menunjang dan menjamin stabilitas perekonomian masyarakat secara nasional. alat analisis yang digunakan adalah regresi dengan periode data yang digunakan adalah mei 2009 s.d desember 2013. hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kenaikan harga eceran meningkatkan harga di tingkat produsen yang mengindikasikan bahwa pasar cabai merah, daging ayam ras, dan ikan segar tidak terintegrasi dengan sempurna. variasi perubahan harga eceran merupakan sumber variasi perubahan harga produsen dan memiliki hubungan yang signifikan antara harga di tingkat produsen dengan harga eceran. perubahan harga eceran tidak tertransmisikan secara sempurna ke harga produsen dimana kenaikan harga eceran mendorong kenaikan harga produsen. kata kunci: mekanisme transmisi, harga internasional, harga domestik, kebijakan harga, komoditas pertanian klasifikasi jel: q13, q18, l11, f40, e31, e23, d4 mailto:didinuryadin@gmail.com 72 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 1, april 2016: 71-76 pendahuluan salah satu masalah utama dalam perdagangan dalam negeri adalah terkait dengan ketidakstabilan harga komoditas hasil pertanian. fenomena kenaikan harga komoditas pertanian, khususnya pangan, pada momenmomen tertentu seperti saat bulan ramadhan dan hari-hari besar lainnya di indonesia selalu terjadi berulang setiap tahun. selain itu, inflasi juga akan meningkat terus jika pemerintah tidak dapat mengendalikan harga komoditas pertanian. fenomena inflasi akibat kenaikan harga komoditas pertanian bahkan tetap terjadi tanpa adanya sentimen dari kondisi ekonomi global. jika pun ada sentimen eksternal, maka potensi risiko inflasi akan semakin kompleks. selama ini pemerintah melalui kementerian perdagangan terus mendorong pengendalian dan pengawasan ketersediaan pasokan untuk memastikan kestabilan harga baik di tingkat konsumen (masyarakat) maupun produsen baik melalui penetapan kebijakan harga, operasi pasar, pengendalian ekspor dan impor maupun regulasi lainnya yang ditujukan untuk tetap menjaga tingkat kestabilan harga di dalam negeri. salah satu peran pemerintah yang diperlukan untuk melengkapi (komplemen) dan mengkoreksi mekanisme pasar yang terjadi terkait dengan harga komoditas pertanian adalah dengan penetapan kebijakan harga (pasal 26 undang-undang nomor 7 tahun 2014). penetapan kebijakan harga adalah pedoman pemerintah dalam menetapkan harga di tingkat produsen dan harga di tingkat konsumen. pemahaman secara rinci terhadap perkembangan situasi dan gerak pasar merupakan persyaratan penting untuk membangun keunggulan komparatif dan kompetitif agribisnis. ketersediaan data dan informasi yang mutakhir yang terkait dengan harga, ekspor, impor, penawaran-permintaan dan indikator ekonomi dan perdagangan lainnya serta berbagai peristiwa sangat dibutuhkan. informasi tersebut akan menjadi dasar dalam melakukan kajian pasar (market intelligence), pengambilan kebijakan/ penetapan peraturan, pembinaan oleh instansi pembina serta sebagai pertimbangan dalam mengambil langkah bisnis yang tepat bagi para pelaku usaha. produk pertanian seperti beras, karet, kopi, kakao, gula, teh, jagung, dan kedelai sudah menjadi komoditi utama dalam perdagangan internasional. harga-harga pasar dalam negeri maupun harga-harga pasar luar negeri (internasional) yang terjadi dari transaksitransaksi perdagangan secara umum berlaku di bawah kaidah-kaidah penawaran dan permintaan. harga-harga yang berkembang di bursa pasar internasional memberikan pengaruh yang cukup besar terhadap pasar harga dalam negeri. pada perdagangan dalam negeri, harga komoditi tersebut pada umumnya ditentukan oleh para pedagang. sedangkan dalam kenyataannya, petani sebagai produsen komoditas pertanian kurang mampu dalam menciptakan bargaining position dalam penciptaan harga. petani selalu kurang diuntungkan sebagai produsen dalam rantai perdagangan baik lokal maupun internasional. terkait dengan latar belakang tersebut, maka diperlukan suatu tinjauan akademis secara mendalam terkait dengan mekanisme transmisi harga internasional dalam rangka penyusunan kebijakan pemerintah dalam pengendalian harga melalui penetapan harga komoditas pertanian tertentu. pengendalian harga ini dalam rangka menjamin stabilitas harga komoditas pertanian sehingga dapat menunjang dan menjamin stabilitas perekonomian masyarakat secara nasional. kajian literatur lee, hyun-hoon dan park, cyn-young (2013) mengemukakan bahwa inflasi harga pangan dalam negeri sangat terkait dengan nilai dari inflasi harga pangan global (indeks harga makanan fao). menariknya, fluktuasi limpahan dari global untuk harga pangan dalam negeri tampaknya kontemporer. gerakan tingkat inflasi harga pangan nasional dan fluktuasi sangat terkait dengan tingkat inflasi harga pangan intra dan ekstra-regional dan fluktuasi masing-masing. selajutnya hal ini juga menunjukkan bahwa inflasi harga pangan global mempengaruhi pasar makanan nasional di seluruh wilayah, tetapi dengan jeda waktu berbeda. selain temuan penelitian juga menunjukkan bahwa tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi yang lebih tinggi, impor bahan makanan yang lebih besar dari porsi seluruh barang impor, peningkatan impor bahan makanan yang lebih kecil di bandingkan barang mekanisme transmisi harga internasional… (didi nuryadin, rini dwi astuti, ardito bhinadi) 73 impor lain, apresiasi mata uang lokal, stabilitas politik yang lebih baik, dan tingkat pendapatan yang lebih tinggi. semua hal tersebut mengarah untuk menurunkan inflasi harga pangan dalam negeri. sementara dalam hal fluktuasi harga pangan, hanya tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi yang berpengaruh, dimana negara-negara dengan ekonomi yang lebih tinggi tingkat pertumbuhannya memiliki fluktuasi harga pangan nasional yang lebih rendah. baltzer, kenneth (2013) memperoleh kesimpulam bahwa dari ke empat belas negara yang diteliti dapat dikategorikan menurut status perdagangan untuk menghasilkan prediksi mengenai pola transmisi harga. keempat kategori tersebut adalah: 1. pedagang bebas (terintegrasi dan ekonomi pertanian yang terbuka), brazil dan afrika selatan diperkirakan akan menunjukkan tingkat yang relatif besar pada transmisi harga. 2. stabilisator ekspor (china, india, dan vietnam) merupakan eksportir beras, dan negara-negara ini memiliki kontrol yang efektif terhadap ekspor. 3. importir: dari empat belas negara dalam sampel, bangladesh, mesir, kenya, mozambik, dan senegal yang konsisten tergantung pada impor makanan pokok mereka. 4. terisolasi (ethiopia, nigeria, malawi, zambia) memiliki ruang yang sangat kecil untuk terintegrasi dengan pasar sereal internasional dan sebagian besar mandiri dalam pokok utama mereka. kemudian diketahui bahwa integrasi pasar menunjukkan bahwa guncangan lokal dapat diredam di pasar global melalui transmisi harga internasional. jika guncangan lokal besar, ini akan melibatkan perubahan substansial dalam pola perdagangan. pada contoh ethiopia menunjukkan bahwa transmisi harga crosskomoditas antara bahan makanan poko yang berbeda bisa menjadi saluran penting untuk transmisi harga internasional juga. selanjutnya penelitian yang dilakukan oleh world bank (2012) memperoleh kesimpulan bahwa transmisi dianggap penting karena transmisi harga pangan internasional untuk harga domestik sangat penting untuk mengejar keunggulan berbasis komparatif, produksi pertanian yang berkelanjutan, dan untuk memastikan produksi dalam negeri merespon kelangkaan pangan global. peningkatan dalam volatilitas harga pangan internasional, perlu perhatian besar, namun mencegah transmisi melalui harga internasional untuk melindungi konsumen adalah kontraproduktif. oleh karena itu langkah yang perlu dilakukan untuk meningkatkan transmisi harga yaitu pertama, negara harus berinvestasi dalam infrastruktur pasar domestik dan menyelaraskan kebijakan untuk lebih mengintegrasikan pasar domestik dan internasional. kedua, pembuat kebijakan harus mengejar kebijakan perdagangan terbuka untuk mendapatkan kembali kepercayaan dari banyak negara di pasar internasional. dan ketiga, negara harus memperkuat jaring pengaman mereka dan menggunakannya secara efektif berfokus pada masyarakat miskin dan rentan untuk mengurangi dampak kenaikan harga, sementara memungkinkan harga domestik naik untuk menginduksi respon suplai makanan. dalam kaitannya dengan tahap produksi pangan, maka peneltian yang dilakukan oleh weinhagen, jonathan c. (2012), menjelaskan analisis transmisi harga melalui tiga tahap produksi pangan yang menunjukkan perbedaan besar dalam transmisi harga dari produsen makanan untuk makanan yang dikonsumsi di rumah dengan makanan yang dikonsumsi jauh dari rumah peningkatan di berbagai ppi yang berhubungan dengan makanan menyebabkan kenaikan cpi untuk makanan yang dikonsumsi di rumah tetapi tidak untuk cpi pada makanan yang dikonsumsi jauh dari rumah. sedangkan minot, nicholas. 2011 mengemukakan bahwa tingkat kenaikan harga tampaknya terkait dengan tingkat daya jual. komoditas yang memiliki nilai perdagangan lebih tinggi akan lebih erat terkait dengan pasar internasional, sehingga harga domestik komoditas tersebut mengikuti lonjakan harga dunia. sementara komoditas yang kurang banyak diperdagangkan di pasar internasional mengalami peningkatan harga yang lebih kecil di pasar afrika. selain bahwa harga internasional makanan biji-bijian memiliki beberapa efek pada pasar afrika yaitu untuk beras dan untuk tingkat yang lebih rendah yaitu jagung, tetapi efeknya biasanya tenggelam oleh efek dominan yaitu guncangan pasokan domestik yang berhubungan dengan cuaca. lonjakan harga dunia pada tahun 2007-2008 itu lebih jelas merupakan transmisi karena (1) itu adalah kejutan besar, (2) itu didampingi oleh biaya transportasi naik tajam, (3) upaya oleh 74 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 1, april 2016: 71-76 negara-negara afrika untuk melarang ekspor gandum berkontribusi harga pangan meningkat di negara-negara tetangga, dan (4) faktor lokal dan pembatasan perdagangan swasta memperburuk kenaikan harga di beberapa negara. penelitian lain, diantaranya dilakukan oleh keats, sharada. dkk. (2010) menemukan bahwa ketika harga sereal/bahan makanan pokok dunia melonjak pada 2007 hingga 2008, ada yang berhubungan dengan kenaikan di pasar domestik di banyak negara berkembang. namun transmisi harga tidak terjadi secara merata, di sebagian besar negara di asia harga beras naik namun lebih kecil dari kenaikan harga di pasar dunia. sementara di afrika terjadi kenaikan harga jagung yang sangat tinggi dan jauh lebih tinggi daripada kenaikan yang terjadi di pasar dunia. namun hal ini tidak berkorelasi dengan harga internasional. kemungkinan hal ini adalah akibat dari insiden faktor lokal, dan inflasi impor dari kenaikan harga minyak. sebagian besar pemahaman tentang dampak dari lonjakan harga telah dihasilkan oleh model yang mengasumsikan tingkat transmisi dari harga internasional untuk harga domestik. namun, karena transmisi umumnya tidak lengkap dan tidak merata, maka model idealnya perlu menggunakan asumsi yang berbeda untuk negara yang berbeda. metode penelitian menurut masyrofie (1994), untuk melihat hubungan elastisitas harga di tingkat internasional dengan elastisitas harga di tingkat domestik (produsen dan konsumen), dilihat elastisitas transmisi harganya. model yang digunakan adalah: pf =  pr  kemudian model tersebut dirubah menjadi bentuk linear sebagai berikut: ln pf = ln  +  ln pr keterangan: pf = harga di tingkat domestik (rp/kg); pr = harga di tingkat internasional (rp/kg);  = intersep;  = koefisien. penambahan variabel lain sangat dimungkinkan karena terdapat banyak variabel yang turut berpengaruh terhadap harga domestik selain harga internasional itu sendiri. pengujian parameter dilakukan dengan uji t, dengan hipotesis sebagai berikut: h0 :  = 1 h1 :   1 pengujian hipotesis: t-hitung: dengan meningkatnya perdagangan, maka pengukuran transmisi harga seperti di atas dapat menimbulkan bias. bias tersebut timbul dari asumsi bahwa harga domestik merupakan variabel yang dibentuk oleh harga dunia dan faktor-faktor lain yang mempengaruhinya. intensitas perdagangan yang lebih tinggi dengan adanya diferensiasi produk dan perubahan kebjakan perdagangan dan kebijakan industri memberikan peluang bagi suatu negara sebagai eksportir atau importir suatu komoditi. dengan keunggulan komparatif dan keunggulan kompetitif, maka suatu negara eksportir atau importir dapat memiliki pasar yang lebih luas sehingga mempunyai kekuatan pasar. dengan demikian, kondisi bahwa harga dunia dipengaruhi oleh harga domestik dapat terjadi. untuk itu, harga domestik yang disebutkan dalam studi ini adalah harga ekspor atau harga impor suatu komoditi. harga ekspor atau harga impor diproksi dengan konsistensi nilai perdagangan bersih suatu komoditi. jika nilai perdagangan bersih (ekspor dikurangi impor) indonesia untuk suatu komoditi adalah surplus, maka indonesia ditetapkan sebagai negara eksportir sedangkan jika nilai perdagangan bersih (ekspor dikurangi impor) indonesia untuk suatu komoditi adalah defisit maka indonesia ditetapkan sebagai negara importir. volume ekspor dan impor terkait komoditi cabai merah dan daging ayam ras adalah produk yang terkait dengan olahan cabai merah dan pembibitan ayam ras; untuk ikan segar komoditi utamanya adalah ikan tuna. karena itu, harga produsen yang digunakan adalah harga yang diterima petani produsen atau bukan harga bersih dari transaksi ekspor impor produk cabe merah segar maupun pembibitan ayam. untuk ikan segar, karena data yang mekanisme transmisi harga internasional… (didi nuryadin, rini dwi astuti, ardito bhinadi) 75 tersedia adalah harga eceran ikan kembung, maka yang dianalisa adalah transmisi harga produsen dan harga eceran ikan kembung. periode yang digunakan adalah mei 2009 sampai dengan desember 2013. hasil dan pembahasan cabai merah model persamaan analisis resesi antara harga di tingkat produsen dan harga di tingkat pengecer adalah sebagai berikut: harga produsen=14.526,539 + 0,145 harga eceran hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa nilai koefiesien regresi (β) kurang dari satu dan positif. hal ini mengindikasikan bahwa kenaikan harga eceran meningkatkan harga di tingkat produsen dimana perubahan harga eceran sebesar rp 1.000 akan merubah harga produsen sebesar rp 145. hal ini mengindikasikan bahwa pasar cabai merah tidak terintegrasi dengan sempurna. pasar yang kurang terintegrasi dapat disebabkan oleh pola distribusi atau pemasaran sehingga kecenderungannya adalah oligopsoni. nilai elastisitas transmisi harga cabai merah yaitu 0,096 atau kurang dari satu yang artinya jika terjadi perubahan pada harga eceran 1% maka terjadi perubahan pada harga eceran sebesar 0,096%. dengan demikian, elastisitas transmisi harga bersifat inelastis. nilai ini menunjukkan bahwa perubahan harga pada konsumen tidak tertransmisikan secara sempurna kepada produsen. nilai yang positif juga mengindikasikan bahwa kenaikan harga eceran justru akan mendorong kenaikan harga produsen. daging ayam ras model persamaan analisis reresi antara harga di tingkat produsen dan harga di tingkat pengecer untuk daging ayam ras adalah sebagai berikut harga produsen=28.053,685 + 0,576 harga eceran hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa nilai koefiesien regresi (β) kurang dari satu dan positif. hal ini mengindikasikan bahwa kenaikan harga eceran meningkatkan harga di tingkat produsen dimana perubahan harga eceran sebesar rp1.000 akan merubah harga produsen sebesar rp576. hal ini mengindikasikan bahwa pasar daging ayam ras tidak terintegrasi dengan sempurna. nilai elastisitas transmisi harga yaitu 0,867 atau kurang dari satu yang artinya jika terjadi perubahan harga konsumen 1% menyebabkan perubahan harga produsen 0,867%. dengan demikian, perubahan harga eceran tidak tertransmisikan secara sempurna ke harga produsen. nilai yang positif mengindikasikan bahwa kenaikan harga eceran daging ayam ras mendorong kenaikan harga produsen. ikan segar model persamaan analisis reresi antara harga di tingkat produsen dan harga di tingkat pengecer adalah sebagai berikut harga produsen=-43.098,337 + 2,708 harga eceran hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa nilai koefiesien regresi (β) lebih dari satu dan positif. hal ini mengindikasikan bahwa kenaikan harga eceran meningkatkan harga di tingkat produsen dimana perubahan harga eceran sebesar rp1.000 akan merubah harga produsen sebesar rp2.708. hal ini mengindikasikan bahwa pasar cabai merah tidak terintegrasi dengan sempurna. nilai elastisitas transmisi harga ikan segar yaitu 0,447 atau kurang dari satu yang artinya jika terjadi perubahan harga konsumen 1% menyebabkan perubahan harga produsen 0,447%. dengan demikian, perubahan harga eceran tidak tertransmisikan secara sempurna ke harga produsen. nilai yang positif mengindikasikan bahwa kenaikan harga eceran mendorong kenaikan harga produsen. simpulan inflasi harga pangan dalam negeri sangat terkait dengan nilai dari inflasi harga pangan global. fluktuasi limpahan dari global untuk harga pangan dalam negeri tampaknya kontemporer. gerakan tingkat inflasi harga pangan nasional dan fluktuasi sangat terkait dengan tingkat inflasi harga pangan intra dan ekstra-regional dan fluktuasi masing-masing. selajutnya hal ini juga menunjukkan bahwa inflasi harga pangan global mempengaruhi 76 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 1, april 2016: 71-76 pasar makanan nasional di seluruh wilayah tetapi dengan jeda waktu berbeda. kenaikan harga eceran meningkatkan harga di tingkat produsen yang mengindikasikan bahwa pasar cabai merah, daging ayam ras, dan ikan segar tidak terintegrasi dengan sempurna. variasi perubahan harga eceran merupakan sumber variasi perubahan harga produsen dan memiliki hubungan yang signifikan antara harga di tingkat produsen dengan harga eceran. perubahan harga eceran tidak tertransmisikan secara sempurna ke harga produsen dimana kenaikan harga eceran mendorong kenaikan harga produsen. daftar pustaka baltzer, kenneth. international to domestic price transmission in fourteen developing countries during the 2007-08 food crisis. wider working paper no. 2013/031 march 2013. university of copenhagen. keats, sharada. dkk. food price transmission: rising international cereals prices and domestic markets, project briefing no. 48 october 2010. overseas development institute. london. kementerian perdagangan, 2013. artikel edisi 08 cabe/08/2013, tinjauan pasar cabe, diunduh dari ews.kemendag.go.id. lee, hyun-hoon and park, cyn-young. international transmission of food prices and volatilities: a panel analysis. adb economics working paper series no. 373 | september 2013. asian development bank. manila. minot, nicholas. transmission of world food price changes to markets in sub-saharan africa. ifpri discussion paper 01059 january 2011. markets, trade and institutions division international food policy research institute. pusat data dan sistem informasi pertanian sekretariat jenderal kementerian pertanian, statistik harga komoditas pertanian tahun 2013, diunduh dari pusdatin.setjen.pertanian.go.id. pusat sosial ekonomi dan kebijakan pertanianbalitbang pertanian kementerian pertanian, outlook pertanian 2010-2025. weinhagen, jonathan c. price transmission effects through three stages of food production. monthly labor review december 2012. us department of labor. ___________________. price transmission: from crude petroleum to plastics product. monthly labor review december 2006. us department of labor. world bank. transmission of global food prices to domestic prices in developing countries: why it matters, how it works, and why it should be enhanced. contribution from the world bank to the g20 commodity markets sub working group. april 2012. image (2).jpg image (3).jpg image (4).jpg image (5).jpg image (6).jpg image (7).jpg image (8).jpg image (9).jpg image (10).jpg image (11).jpg image (12).jpg image (13).jpg image (3).jpg image (4).jpg image (5).jpg image (6).jpg image (7).jpg image (8).jpg image (9).jpg image (10).jpg image (11).jpg image (12).jpg image (13).jpg image (14).jpg image (15).jpg jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016, hlm. 143-156 doi: 10.18196/jesp.17.2.3955 exchange rate fluctuation in indonesia: vector error correction model approach fitra prasapawidya purna, puguh prastyo mulyo, m roqi azza bima pusat pengembangan ekonomi fakultas ekonomi dan bisnis, universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta correspondence e-mail: fitra.prasapa93@gmail.com received: july 2016; accepted: october 2016 abstract: exchange rate in the last few years has been fluctuating highly. a number of variables were used in this research to analyze which variable has impact on exchange rate. the variables used were export, import, money supply and bank indonesia rate, for the period of january 2010 until september 2015, utilizing vector error correction model or vecm estimation method. the results indicate that in the long run, some variables such as import and money supply have significant correlations to exchange rate with positive and negative impact respectively, while export and bi rate have no significant correlation to exchange rate with negative and positive impact respectively. in the short run, all variables bear significant influence on exchange rate except money supply, whereas import, money supply and bi rate maintain a positive relationship with the exchange rate. meanwhile, export has a negative influence on exchange rate. for impulse response and forecast error variance decomposition, the variable which induced the most shock to exchange rate was import. keywords: exchange rate, vecm jel classifications: f31, c32 abstrak: nilai tukar dalam beberapa tahun terakhir sangat berfluktuasi. sejumlah variabel digunakan dalam penelitian ini untuk menganalisis variabel mana yang berpengaruh terhadap nilai tukar. variabel yang digunakan adalah ekspor, impor, uang beredar dan suku bunga bank indonesia, untuk periode januari 2010 sampai september 2015, dengan menggunakan model koreksi kesalahan vektor atau metode estimasi vecm. hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka panjang, beberapa variabel seperti impor dan jumlah uang beredar memiliki korelasi yang signifikan terhadap er dengan dampak positif dan negatif masing-masing, sedangkan tingkat ekspor dan bi tidak memiliki korelasi signifikan terhadap er dengan dampak negatif dan positif masing-masing. dalam jangka pendek, semua variabel berpengaruh signifikan terhadap nilai tukar kecuali jumlah uang beredar, sedangkan impor, uang beredar dan suku bunga bi menjaga hubungan positif dengan nilai tukar. sementara itu, ekspor memiliki pengaruh negatif terhadap nilai tukar. untuk respon impuls dan dekomposisi varians kesalahan estimasi, variabel yang menginduksi shock yang paling besar bagi nilai tukar adalah impor. kata kunci: nilai tukar, vecm klasifikasi jel: f31, c32 mailto:fitra.prasapa93@gmail.com 144 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016: 143-157 introduction two thousands and fifteen is the year when exchange rate of indonesia fluctuated more fluently in the high point. we can’t deny the existence of international market that influences the changes of the exchange rate. especially, when we talk about the upcoming of asean economic community in the end of that year, it should relate to the export and import between countries. the instability of exchange rates will affect the flow of capital or investment and international trade (ulfia and aliasaddin, 2011). such a strong currency is needed to face the obstacles that may occur in the middle of the event. cause it will not just affect the country but also the citizens even the one who stays in the villages. even the slightest change can make people suffer or delight. the change of currency value is affected by trade balance with other countries which using the big amount of money especially using us dollars as its trade’s money. a stable currency value indicates that the country has a relatively good economic condition or stable. (muchlas and agus r, 2015). resource: bank indonesia (calculated) the changes of exchange rate in these last years can be seen in the graph above as its value fluctuated in the high point through 2013-2015 around rp12.000-14.000 as before it just fluctuate around rp8.000-10.000. some researcher has conducted their research and published their finding about the influences of variables such as export, import, money supply, bank indonesia rate, inflation rate, and others toward exchange rate. some findings were significant and others not. such as rr suci palasari (2015) in her research about the influence of exports, imports, inflation rate, and the interest rate toward exchange rate explain the multiple linear regression method that partially exports negative effect significantly, import significant positive effect, interest rates positive and significant on the rupiah. while the inflation rate does not significantly affect and the interest rate is the dominant variable. by those backgrounds the researcher wants to analyze some variables that can influence the fluctuations of exchange rate, there are export, import, money supply, and bank indonesia rate in the period of the data from january 2010 until september 2015. with the title of “analysis of exchange rate fluctuation using vector error correction model (vecm) from 2010 to 2015” research method this study adopted a vector error correction model (vecm) to examine the relationship between exchange rate and macroeconomic variable in indonesia. model developed and applied in this study as follow: ert = ∑ t-j + ∑ t-j + ∑ t-j + ∑ t-j + ∑ t-j + ɛ1t it aims to examine the long run and short run relationship between exchange rate(er) with four macroeconomic variables, namely export (exp), import (imp), money supply (m2), and bank indonesia rate (brt). to properly specify the vecm model, this research followed the standard procedure of time series analyses. by following these procedures: 1. descriptive statistic 2. unit roots test – augmented dickey fuller test 3. lag length criteria test 4. var stability test – roots of characteristic polynomial 5. correlation matrix – johansen julius cointegration test 6. pairwise granger causality test 7. vecm estimation 8. impulse response 9. variance decomposition test. 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 2010 .m1 2011 .m1 2012 .m1 2013 .m1 2014 .m1 2015 .m1 exchange rate exchange rate exchange rate fluctuation in indonesia…( fitra p. purna, puguh p. mulyo, m. r. azza bima) 145 in the detail that mentioned technique will be explain in the following explanation. 1. descriptive statistic. descriptive statistic supposed to figure out research data. consist of descriptive analysis as follows: a. examining the value of mean (average) b. examining the value of maximum c. examining the value of minimum 2. unit root test. the stationary test conducts of the variables to avoid spurious result. there are several methods for testing the presence of unit roots. the most widely used method is augmented dickey fuller (adf) and philips-perron (pp). adf is applied when the error terms (et) are correlated. adf performed by adding the lagged values of the dependent variable ∆ytthe null hypothesis for adf test for unit roots test is α1 = 0 gujarati (1995). for estimate adf the following regression is for adf following: ∆yt = β1 + β2t + δyt + α ∑ + ɛ where ɛt is a white noise error term and ∆yt-1 = (yt-1 ∆yt-2) and so on are the number of lagged difference term which is empirically determined (gujarati, 1995). adf also has its own critics. paramaia and akway (2008) claimed that the adf test has good size but poor power properties. meanwhile another test is pp test. this test controls the higher-order serial correlation. pp test use on parametric statistical methods and avoid the use of adding lagged difference terms in adf test. the null hypothesis for pp test is β1=0. the pp test is relatively better, but has very poor size in the presence of ma processes. the following equation represent for pp test (jeong; fanara; mahome, 2002). yt = β0 + βt yt-1 + et in this test the researcher use a scale of confidence 5%. it means that when the value is under the scale of confidence then the ha is accepted or there is a stationary from variable. 3. determining lag length. the determination of the lag length, used to determine the optimal amount of lag that will be used in a stationary test. if the lag length used in a stationary test too little, the residuals regression will not show the white noise because the model can’t accurately estimate the actual error. consequently, y and standard error cannot be estimated correctly. but, if input too much lag, it can reduce the ability to reject h0, because if adding to much additional parameters can reduce the degrees of freedom (ajija,2011). to knowing the right criteria in stationery test, there is the right criteria to determine lag following: aike information criteria (aic) = -2( ) + 2 (k + t) schwarz information criterion (sic) = -2 ( )+ k hannan-quinn information criterion (hq) = -2 ( ) + 2k log ( ) where: 1 = value function log likelihood t = total of observation k = parameter are estimated 4. var stability test. var stability test conduct to know the stability of var variable, because if the var variable is unstable the prediction of irf and variance decomposition is invalid. var is stable if the modulus value of roots less than 1 (<1) (basuki, 2014). 5. correlation matrix – johansen julius cointegration test. the co-integration test conducts to determine whether the time series of these variables display a stationary process in a linear combination. co-integration means that data from a linear combination of two variables can be stationary despite those variables being individually non-stationary (gujarati, 1995). the johansen (1991) method of multivariate co-integration is employed. a finding of co-integration implies the existence of a long-term relationship between the dependent and the independent variables. if there is at least one cointegration relationship among the variables, then the causal relationship among these 146 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016: 144-156 variables can be determined by estimating the vecm. the johansen and juselius method uses two test to determine the number of cointegration vectors (adebiyi, 2007), namely the “likelihood ratio trace test-lrt” and the “maximum eigenvalue test-me” the likelihood trace statistic expressed as: lrt = -t ∑ (1-μi) for this null hypothesis, it is said that the number of co-integration vectors is less than or equal to r, in which r is 0,1,2, 3…. so on. the alternative hypothesis against this is that r=n. meanwhile the maximum eigenvalue test is formulated as: me = -t ln (1-μt) the null hypothesis is that the existence of r co-integration vector and the alternative hypothesis is r+1 co-integration vectors. the scale of confidence that used in this research is 5%, it means that when the value under the scale of confidence then ha is accepted or there is a co-integration between variables. 6. pair wise granger causality test. according to granger (1988), the existence of co-integrating vectors implies that granger causality exists at least in one direction. a granger variable causes the other variable only if it assists its future value. in co-integrated series variables might be share similar stochastic trends. this research conducts granger causality test to look for directional relationship among variables. gujarati (2003) stated that, there are three granger interpretations: first unidirectional causality, second bilateral causality and third independence causality. unidirectional causality occurs if dependent variable lag coefficience is significant while all independent variable lag coefficience is zero. bilateral causality occurs if all lag coefficient of both dependent and independent variables are significant. the scale of confidence that used in this research is 5%, it means that when the value is under 5% then ha is accepted or there is effect from on variable to another variable. 7. vector error correction model (vecm) estimation. vector error correction model (vecm) is a restricted var designed for non-stationary series are known to be cointegration. vecm has co-integration relation built into specification cause of that it restricted the long-run behavior of the endogenous variable to converge to their co-integration relationship while allowing for short run adjustment dynamics. the cointegration term is known as the error term since the deviation from long-run equilibrium is corrected gradually through a series of partial short-run adjustment. consider a two variable system with one co-integration equation and no lagged difference terms. the co-integration equation is: y2, t = βy1,t the corresponding vecm is: ∆y1, t = a1 (y2, t-1 βy1,t-1) + ɛ1,t ∆y2, t = a2 (y2, t-1 βy1,t-1) + ɛ1,t the only right side variable is the error correction term. in long run equilibrium, the term is zero. if y1 and y2 deviate from the long run equilibrium, the error correction term will be nonzero and each variable adjusts to partially restore the equilibrium relation. the coefficient ai, measure the speed of adjustment of the i-th endogenous variable towards equilibrium. source: gujarati (2004) exchange rate fluctuation in indonesia…( fitra p. purna, puguh p. mulyo, m. r. azza bima) 147 figure 1 var process analyses the level of confidence that used in this research is 5%, it means that when the value is fewer than 5% or the value of tstats more than t-table which the value of ttable is 1.67 then ha is accepted or there is significant impact from the variable. 8. impulse response. for the function of irf expectation kperiod ahead and the error prediction variable cause the innovations of others variable. thus the duration effect shock of a one variable to others variable until the effect of shock is disappear or return to equilibrium can be seen and knowing. (ajija, 2011) 9. variance decomposition. variance decomposition or also forecast error variance decomposition is a device on the var model which separates the variation of the number variables in the estimate into its component parts into a variable shock or innovation, with the assumption the variable not mutually correlated. then the variance decomposition will provide information on the proportion of the movement the shock effect to the shock on others variables in the current period and future periods (ajija, 2011). results and discussion this part will explain the findings from the research and some explanations through the data that has been analyzed and will reveal all things according to the research. 1. descriptive statistic. descriptive statistics represents the entire population or sample in the study. it explains data central tendency and dispersion measurement. eviews 7 is used as the econometrics tool to analyze the data. eventually, this study finds the following descriptive statistics: table 1 descriptive statistic er exp imp m2 brt mean 10390.62 15018.52 13338.89 3200908 6.684783 median 9615 15340.48 13986.65 3207908 6.5 maximum 14657 18530.80 16749.95 4508603 7.75 minimum 8508 10540.03 8675.846 2066481 5.75 std. dev 1652.367 1840.137 1946.309 720777.8 0.698807 skewness 0.749878 -0.376051 -0.684937 0.79782 -0.006085 observation 69 69 69 69 69 resource: data processing table 1 defines the descriptive statistics of all variables with regards to changes in er, exp, imp, m2, and brt. the table shows the following results: er’s mean, median, maximum, and minimum values are, respectively, 10390.62, 9615, 14657, and 8508. secondly, exp’s mean, median, maximum, and minimum values are, respectively, 15018.52, 15340.48, 18530.80, and 10540.03. thirdly, the imp’s mean, median, maximum, and minimum values are, respectively, 13338.89, 13986.65, 16749.95, and 8675.846. fourthly, m2’s mean, median, maximum, and minimum values are, respectively, 3200908, 3207908, 4508603, and 2066481. lastly, brt’s mean, median, maximum, and minimum values, respectively, 6.684783, 6.5, 7.75, and 5.75. the results indicate that all variables show positive mean. the values of skewness for exp, imp, and brt are negative, they are, respectively, -0.376051, -0.684937, and 0.006085. while the values for er and m2 are positive, 0.749878 and 0.79782, respectively. 2. unit roots test – augmented dickey fuller test. in the econometric examination model used is var/vecm model, the first test performed is stationary test to build the proper econometrics model. the unit root 148 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016: 144-156 test is conducted by observing the value of akaikie information criterion (aic) and schwarz criterion (sc) through augmenteddickey-fuller test (adf-test) at level and at first difference level. if the t-statistics is value bigger than the critical value, the data is stationary at level and can be analyzed using var methods. but, if the t-statistics value is smaller than the critical value, then the data is not stationary at level. adf-test is used to examine the stationary data and lag length of the five variables in this study in level and first difference. from the data processing program using eviews 7 program, unit root test results are shown in the table below. table 2 unit root test augmented dickey fuller (adf-test) test adf variable level prob note first difference prob note t-statistic t-statistic er 2.178403 0.9999 not stationer -6.851359 0.0000 stationer exp -2.18727 0.2128 not stationer -12.70672 0.0000 stationer imp -2.675923 0.0835 not stationer -8.834403 0.0000 stationer m2 0.74766 0.9924 not stationer -10.64628 0.0000 stationer brt -0.774254 0.8197 not stationer -5.971178 0.0000 stationer resource: data processing the results in the table 2 above show that the values of exchange rate (er), export (exp), import (imp), money supply (m2), and bank indonesia rate (brt) are stationary in first difference. because the five variables are in first difference er, exp, imp, m2, and brt, therefore, the variables must be transformed into first difference. the defined value in the following equation is: dert = a0 + a1dexpt-2 + a2dimpt-2 + a3dm2t-2 + a4dbrtt-2 + et in which d is at first difference, which means that der represents the first difference of exchange rate, dexp represents the first difference of export, dimp represents the first difference of import, dm2 represents the first difference of money supply, and dbrt represents the first difference of bank indonesia rate. 3. lag length criteria test. the second step for establishing the presence of a long-run relationship among the variables is to determine the optimal lag length for the var system. lag-length misspecification for the var model often generates auto correlated errors. by determining lag optimum, it will determine the criteria of final prediction error correction (fpe) or the total of aic, sic, and hq which is minimum between some of the lags. table 3 lag length criteria lag logl lr fpe aic sc hq 0 -2179.676 na 2.78e+24 70.47343 70.64497* 70.54078 1 -2142.612 66.95461 1.89e+24 70.08426 71.11352 70.48838* 2 -2115.451 44.6843* 1.79e+24* 70.01455* 71.90153 70.75543 3 -2094.820 30.61354 2.15e+24 70.15549 72.90018 71.23313 4 -2074.852 26.40935 2.73e+24 70.31781 73.92022 71.73221 5 -2051.537 27.07515 3.31e+24 70.37218 74.83230 72.12333 *indicates lag order selected by criterion lr : sequential modified lr test statistic (each test at 5 percent level) fpe : final prediction error aic : akaike information criterion sc : schwarz information crierion hq : hannan – quinn information criterion resource: data processing exchange rate fluctuation in indonesia…( fitra p. purna, puguh p. mulyo, m. r. azza bima) 149 the table shows the result of automatic lag length determination by eviews 7. it shows that based on the value of schwarz information criterion (sc) match in lag 0, which is 70.64497, the value of hannanquinn information (hq) match in lag 1, which is 70.48838, lr statistics, final prediction error (fpe), and aic match in lag 2, which are 44.68246,1.79e+24, and 70.01455, respectively. automatic eviews 7 lag length determines lag 2 as proper lag length in vecm estimation. 4. var stability test – roots of characteristic polynomial. after determining the lag length criteria to know the proper lag length for var estimation, the next step is to know the var stability test using roots of characteristic polynomial. roots of characteristic polynomial is performed to know whether the variable in var is stable to test in a var model. if the value of roots and modulus polynomial is less than 1 (<1) it means the variable is sufficient to be tested in a var model. the table below shows the result of polynomial test. table 4 roots of characteristic polynomial roots modulus -0.227858 0.644577i 0.683666 -0.227858 + 0.644577i 0.683666 -0.447781 0.437948i 0.626344 -0.447781 + 0.437948i 0.626344 0.560511 0.560511 -0.271225 0.403905i 0.486521 -0.271225 + 0.403905i 0.486521 0.281102 0.298921i 0.410332 0.281102 + 0.298921i 0.410332 -0.258468 0.258468 no root lies outside the unit circle. resource: data processing based on table 4 above, all of the values of roots and modulus are less than one (<1), and based on var, it satisfies the stability control which mentioned that no root lies outside the unit circle. it means that the variable is sufficient to test in a var model. 5. correlation matrix – johansen julius cointegration test. co-integration test is conducted by examining the stationary value from each variable in this research. the variable can be integrated or not integrated, if the variable is integrated, it means that the variable has a long-term relationship and continued with vecm model, but if it is not co-integrated, the model will be tested in var first difference (fdvar). co-integration test is examined using the johansen juselius cointegration test. in order to find out the number of co-integration vector, trace statistics and maximal eigen value tests were used. in this study, the criteria to determine co-integration test is based on the probability, if the probability more than α > 0.05, its means that the co-integration is rejected. the results of the johansen’s trace and max eigen value test are shown in the table 4.5 below. table 5 co-integration test johansen juselius test model hypothesized trace statistic prob. max eigen statistic prob. variable result lag length = 2 none * 140.8385 0.0000 62.09591 0.0000 er trace statistic showed there are 5 co-integration and max eigen statistic at most 1 * 78.74261 0.0000 32.44752 0.0109 exp at most 2 46.29510 0.0003 30.54058 0.0018 imp 150 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016: 144-156 model hypothesized trace statistic prob. max eigen statistic prob. variable result * showed there are 3 co-integration vectors at most 3 * 15.75452 0.0457 9.043606 0.2825 m2 at most 4 * 6.710912 0.0096 6.710912 0.0096 brt source: data processing table 5 above shows the results of johansen juselius co-integration test. the mackinnon-haug-mihelis p-values are 0.000 < α = 0.05, therefore, it rejects h0 and accepts ha, or the model is significant. trace test statistic showed 5 co-integration and max eigen statistics showed 3 co-integration vectors among the variables at = 0.05. in other words, there is co-integration among er, exp, imp, m2, and brt for the period of january 2010 – september 2015. based on johansen juselius cointegration test, it indicates that five co-integration test mean variables of er, exp, imp, m2, and brt have a long run co-integration, the next method is vecm test for long run and short run. 6. pairwise granger causality test. granger causality test is conducted to know whether of each the variables have causality relationship or not. in other words, every variable has causality to other variable and can become the exogenous variable and endogenous variable. this research uses α = 5 percent as indicator. the result of pairwise granger causality test is shown in the table 5.6 below. table 6 result pairwise granger causality test dependent variable independent variable probability er exp 0.0115* imp 0.1694 m2 0.0211* brt 0.0346* exp er 0.3336 imp 0.0123* m2 0.9895 brt 0.6715 imp exp 0.6989 er 0.1545 m2 0.8966 brt 0.0480* m2 exp 0.0060* imp 0.2536 er 0.0676 brt 0.3276 brt exp 0.1670 imp 0.1878 m2 0.0411* er 0.5375 α 5% resource: data processing table 6 shows that the result for er as dependent variable, it has 3 significant independent variables that influence it statistically, they are, exp, m2, and brt which their value are 0.0115, 0.0211, and 0.0346,but with er as independent variable for those variable as independent, there was no significant influence as the value, respectively, 0.336, 0.0676, and 0.5375. it means h0 is rejected, it means there is exchange rate fluctuation in indonesia…( fitra p. purna, puguh p. mulyo, m. r. azza bima) 151 unidirectional relationship between exp to er, m2 to er, and brt to er. variable exp is statistic but not significantly influence to imp but imp is statistic and significantly influence to exp which shown from the probability values respectively 0.06989 and 0.0123, it means h0 is rejected and can be concluded that there is unidirectional relationship between imp to exp. variable imp is statistic but not significantly influence to brt but brt is statistic and significantly influence to imp which shown from the probability values respectively 0.1878 and 0.0480, it means h0 is rejected and can be concluded that there is unidirectional relationship between brt to imp. variable m2 is statistic but not significantly influence to exp but exp is statistic and significantly influence m2 which shown from the probability values respectively 0.9895 and 0.0060, it means h0 is rejected and can be concluded that there is unidirectional relationship between exp to m2. variable brt is statistic but not significantly influence to m2 but m2 is statistic and significantly influence brt which shown from the probability values respectively 0.3276 and 0.0411, it means h0 is rejected and can be concluded that there is unidirectional relationship between m2 and brt. variable er is statistic but not significant influence to imp and vice versa that is shown from the probability values respectively (0,1545) and (0.1694), it means h0 is accepted can be concluded between both variables that there is no causality relationship. variable imp is statistic but not significant influence to m2 and vice versa that is shown from the probability values respectively 0,2536 and 0.8966, it means h0 is accepted can be concluded between both variables that there is no causality relationship. variable exp is statistic but not significant influence to brt and vice versa that is shown from the probability value respectively 0,1670 and 0.6715 which means that h0 is accepted, it can be concluded that between both variables there is no causality relationship. 7. vecm estimation. vecm test result will get the long run and short-run relationships between the dependent variable and independent variable. in vecm model will determine the long run and short-run between der, dexp, dimp, dm2, and dbrt. this study uses lag 2, based on lag length criteria, it is determined that the result of der is the dependent variable and dexp, dimp, dm2, and dbrt are set as independent variables. table 4.7 below shows the long-run and short-run relationship between exchange rate (der) as dependent variable and another variable as independent variable, the result is as follows: table 7 vecm estimate long-run long-term variable coefficient t-statistic exp(-1) -0.141717 -0.86078 imp(-1) 0.518045 3.01729** m2(-1) -0.002787 -9.60177** brt(-1) 117.1374 0.51888 resource: data processing table 7 above is the summary from vecm analysis to see the influence of significant variable in long-run relationship. the result of long-run relationship from table 5.7 shows all independent variables which influence er are, respectively, export (exp), import (imp), money supply (m2) and bank indonesia rate (brt), with significant value of α > 5 percent, respectively -0.86078,3.01729, -9.60177 and 0.51888. the first normalized equation in long-run estimate : er = -0.141717 exp (-1) + 0.518045 imp (-1) – 0.002787 m2 (-1) + 177.1374 brt (-1) according to the equation in vecm long run estimate, a long-run relationship among the variables is shown. exchange rate shows positive values significantly to imp and brt and for exp and m2 have negative value significantly. 152 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016: 144-156 table 8 vecm estimate short-run short-run variable coefficient t-statistic cointeq1 -0.220947 -3.57746*** d(er(-1)) 0.130575 1.01090 d(er(-2) -0.077894 -0.57305 d(exp(-1)) -0.062939 -2.00545** d(exp(-2)) -0.060601 -2.01186** d(imp(-1)) 0.058846 1.76672 d(imp(-2)) 0.088096 2.90443*** d(m2(-1)) 0.001031 1.20978 d(m2(-2)) 0.000453 0.58204 d(brt(-1)) 213.2985 0.96015 d(brt(-2)) 666.8306 2.92897*** c 12.24113 0.25008 r-squared 0.387970 adj. r-squared 0.263297 ***,**,*. 1%,5%,10% resource: data processing table 8 above is the summary from vecm analysis to see the influence and significant variable in short-run. in short run, export, import, and bank indonesia rate are significant and money supply is not significant, it means that in short-run and long-run some variables have influence to er. export in 1st and 2nd lag is significant and negative to er. import in 2nd lag is significant and positive to er. bank indonesia rate in 2nd lag is significant and positive to er. short run equation on vecm model is shown as follows: the second normalized vecm short-run estimate: der=12.24113+0.130575d(er(-1))-0.077894d(er(-2))–0.062939d(exp(-1))-0.060601d(exp(2))+0.058846d(imp(-1))+0.088096d(imp(-2))+0.001031d(m2(-1))+0.000453d(m2(2))+213.2985d(brt(-1))+ 666.8306d(brt(-2) -0.220947cointeq1 8. impulse response. the function of impulse response is to track the response of a variable over time after a shock to the var system. sims, 1992 in his book, ajija, 2011 explains the function of irf expectation k-period ahead and the error prediction variable caused by innovations of other variables. thus, the shock effect duration of one variable to other variable up to the point when the effect of shock disappears or returns to equilibrium can be seen and known. the persistence of a shock indicates how quickly the system returns to equilibrium. graph below shows the result of analysis on impulse response, as follows: resource: data processed figure 2 response of er to export -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 response of er to export exchange rate fluctuation in indonesia…( fitra p. purna, puguh p. mulyo, m. r. azza bima) 153 from the graph above we can see the response of exchange rate toward the changes in export. in the 1st period there was no change for exchange rate when export change, but after 2nd period till 10th period exchange rate value will decrease eventually especially between 1st and 2nd period. it means that export can strengthen the value of exchange rate as there is an inflow of foreign currency to indonesia and increase the need of rupiah which decrease the price of rupiah against us dollar. so government should help exporters and give them hand to improve the amount of exported goods which can strengthen the value of rupiah. resource: data processed figure 3 response of er to import from the graph above we can see the response of exchange rate due to the change in import. exchange rate has a negative response to the import from the 1st period exchange rate was decreasing but at 2nd period it try to increase but after 3rd period till 10th period exchange rate was decreasing significantly. it means that import causes rupiah to decrease or with other side import was decreasing when rupiah was decreasing. so actually between rupiah and import has some important role which response each other negatively, then government should pay their attention to both of them as our country still in need of import to survive. resource: data processed figure 4 response of er to m2 from the graph above we can see the response of exchange rate to money supply. exchange rate response to money supply is a positive response from the 1st period till 3rd period and it stabilize in the positive side till 10th period. it means that money supply affect positively to exchange rate. so government should intervene when money supply too high and it made exchange rate price increase to prevent the high price of rupiah and make the price stabilize even more. -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 response of er to import -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 response of er to m2 154 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016: 144-156 resource: data processed figure 5 response of er to birate from the graph above we can see the response of exchange rate to bank indonesia rate. at 1st period till middle of 2nd period it increase but in stable term. after 2nd period it increase dramatically till 3rd period and then it stabilize and decreasing time to time but still in positive side till 10th period. it means that the change in bank indonesia rate will affect positively to exchange rate but in the meantime it will stabilize slowly to reach the equilibrium point. so government should pay their attention to their monetary policy which includes the deciding of bank indonesia rate. because it will affect the real market and money market eventually. 9. forecasting variance decomposition. variance decomposition is used to detect the causal relations among the variables. it explains the degree at which the variable is explained by the shocks in all variables in the var system. variance decomposition measures the percentage of forecast error of variation that is explained by another variable in the short-run dynamics and interactions. it does not provide information on how variables of interest respond to shocks or innovations in other variables. this study explores variance decomposition based on var specification. table 5.10 below shows the result of variance decomposition, as follows. table 6 the result variance decomposition period s.e der dexp dimp dm2 dbrt 1 210.2362 100.0000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 2 309.8608 92.58361 2.227896 1.984458 2.613723 0.590318 3 394.7830 82.25926 3.186523 1.737854 5.194153 7.622209 4 478.1867 71.96127 4.008375 6.857557 6.497915 10.67488 5 550.5112 63.29813 4.405857 12.42052 7.539937 12.33555 6 616.6106 57.06958 5.139135 16.57123 8.244285 12.97576 7 682.2231 51.46310 5.621225 21.63534 8.728271 12.55207 8 744.2658 46.89091 5.986664 26.05459 9.150352 11.91748 9 802.8150 43.30155 6.382514 29.72279 9.411816 11.18133 10 859.3345 40.21222 6.674332 33.06704 9.627843 10.41856 resource: data processing table 6 above shows the result of variance decomposition of der. in the 1st period der is 100 percent influenced by its own variable. furthermore, the influence of der variable itself decreases by 40.2% in the 10th month. table above also defines that in 1st period der variable is 0 % influenced by dexp, but in the last 10th month dexp influence der to 6.7%. another explanation for dimp variable which affect 0% in the 1st period to der, while -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 response of er to birate exchange rate fluctuation in indonesia…( fitra p. purna, puguh p. mulyo, m. r. azza bima) 155 in the last 10th month dimp affect der to 33.1%. for dm2 variable, it affects 0% in the 1st period to der and in the last 10th month dm2 affect der to 9.6%. lastly for dbrt, in the first period it affects der 0% and in the last 10th month dbrt affect der to 10.4%. conclusion this study is started by the structural order of var to vecm. it started from unit roots test and finished in variance decomposition. based on the analysis and the test results above on the effects of export (exp); import (imp); money supply (m2); and bank indonesia rate (brt) on exchange rate (er), it can be concluded that: 1. in the long-run, some of the independent variables such as import and money supply have significant correlation to er with positive and negative impact respectively while export and bank indonesia rate have not significant correlation to er with negative and positive impact respectively. in the short-run, all of the independent variables have significant influence on er except money supply, whereas import, money supply and bank indonesia rate have a positive relationship to er. meanwhile, export has a negative influence to er. 2. based on the impulse responses and forecast error variance decomposition, the independent variable in which all variables are most capable to have a high shock to er is import, because it gives a descent amount of the shock as shown on the forecast error variance decomposition and impulse responses in the previous period. it is suggested that the government has awareness towards the stabilization of the import markets. recommendation regarding to the study conclusion, the researcher submits recommendations for maintaining the stability of exchange rate as follows: 1. based on the findings, we can conclude that all of independent variables significantly control the value of exchange rate in short and long run. government should pay their attention toward export, import, money supply, and bank indonesia rate with the attention to the people reactions to the changes of those independent variable which the reaction will affect exchange rate respectively. 2. as bank indonesia rate is one element of monetary system government should confirm in the changes of it between reaching the goal of bank indonesia rate and maintaining the stability of exchange rate as the research find the positive and significant effect of bank indonesia rate toward exchange rate. 3. because exchange rate is influencing trade balance as well the maintaining of it is a key to increase or decrease export as well with the policy of government to control the amount of exported and imported goods to reach the welfare for all of the society in indonesia. 4. as bank indonesia rate is not significant in long-run government should pay attention to the desire of people in the real market as it can drive the people to do the economic activity. so government can improve another policy as using open market operation or reserve requirement ratio to stabilize exchange rate value in the future. 5. muhammadiyah can take the research as the basis to reform the law no.24 year 1999 which talked about the flow of reserve and the exchange rate. the measurement that can be taken is birate was not significant in the long-run event depends on the result findings so there should be another thing that can control the volatility of exchange rate and make a stable value of it. references adebiyi, (2007), does money tell us anything about inflation in nigeria?,journal singapore economic review, 52(1), 117134. ajija, shochrul r. (2011). cara cerdas menguasai eviews..jakarta: salemba empat basuki, agus dan imamudin. (2014). elektronik data prosesing (spss 15 dan eviews 7). yogyakarta : danisa media. gujarati, (1995), basic econometrics, 3rd ed., new york: mcgraw-hill. jeong, (2002), intra and inter-continental transmission of inflation in africa, 156 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016: 144-156 journal applied financial economics, 12, 731-741. muchlas, zainul and agus r (2015). faktorfaktor yang mempengaruhi kurs rupiah terhadap dollar amerika pasca krisis (2000-2010). jurnal jibeka. volume 9 nomor 1 februari 2015: 76-86. palasari, rr suci (2015). efek ekspor, impor, tingkat inflasi dan tingkat suku bunga terhadap nilai tukar rupiah. uin malik maulana ibrahim: ulfia dan aliasuddin (2011).“hubungan pendapatan dan kurs di indonesia” .jurnal ekonomi dan pembangunan, 2(1): 33 44 http://www.bi.go.id http://www.bi.go.id/ studi efektivitas pelayanan publik di kecamatan kejaksan kota cirebon jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2009: 56 68 memahami kemiskinan dan strategi penanggulangannya nano prawoto fakultas ekonomi universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta jalan lingkar selatan, tamantirto, kasihan, bantul, yogyakarta, telp/fax. 0274-387656 psw 184, 387646 e-mail: nanoprawoto@yahoo.co.id abstrak: studi ini mengamati masalah kemiskinan kronis dan rumit, yang membutuhkan analisis memadai guna menampung setiap komponen dari permasalahan. langkah-langkah strategis yang tepat dan berkelanjutan juga diperlukan untuk memecahkan masalah. beberapa variabel yang digunakan untuk analisis hasil serangkaian strategi dan kebijakan untuk memberantas kemiskinan. sebagian besar program-program pemerintah untuk pemberantasan kemiskinan tidak begitu berhasil karena terjadi penyimpangan dalam pelaksanaan dari rencana mereka. seperti banyak negara lain seperti amerika serikat telah mencoba dengan beberapa perbedaan dalam pendekatan dan penekanan mereka, indonesia juga telah melakukan sejumlah upaya. program-program pengentasan kemiskinan di indonesia memberi lebih banyak penekanan pada aspek ekonomi daripada sosial, budaya, hukum dan bahkan religius. ini kesalahan paradigmatik yang mengarah pada kesalahan analitis dan tidak menyertakan variabel-variabel yang signifikan bias menghasilkan perkiraan dan hasil yang tidak diharapkan. studi ini meneliti lebih lanjut strategi pemberantasan kemiskinan dan komponen yang memadai untuk pelaksanaan lebih baik. kata kunci: kemiskinan, inpres, bantuan langsung tunai abstract: this study observes the chronic and intricate problems of poverty, which require an adequate analysis accommodating every single component of the problems. proper strategic and sustainable measures are also required to solve the problems. some variables used for analysis result a set of strategies and policies to eradicate poverty. most of the government programs for poverty eradication have not been very successful due to deviation in implementation from their plans. as many other countries such as the united states have endeavored with some differences in their approach and emphasis, indonesia has also conducted a number of efforts. poverty alleviation programs in indonesia give more emphasis on economic aspects than those of social, cultural, legal and even religious ones. this paradigmatic blunder which leads to analytical mistakes and does not include significant variables generates bias estimates and unexpected results. this study examines further the strategies of poverty eradication and their adequate components for better implementation. keywords: poverty, inpres, direct cash assistance pendahuluan pembangunan ekonomi yang ditempuh bangsa indonesia selama pembangunan jangka panjang pertama (pjp i) telah menghasilkan laju pertumbuhan ekonomi sebesar rata-rata 7 persen per tahun. pembangunan ekonomi tersebut dimulai sejak pembangunan lima tahun pertama (repelita i) tahun 1969 yang lalu, dan proses pembangunan berjalan mulus hingga tahun 1970-an memahami kemiskinan dan strategi penanggulangannya ... (nano prawoto) 57 dan 1980-an, namun demikian tampaknya pembangunan ekonomi indonesia tersebut juga beberapa kali telah mengalami external shocks seperti harga minyak mentah turun di pasar internasional dan apresiasi nilai tukar yen terhadap dollar amerika serikat selama tahun 1980-an dan yang paling parah adalah saat terjadinya krisis moneter pada akhir tahun 1997 dan awal tahun 1998 yang lalu pembangunan ekonomi indonesia terasa terhenti dan bahkan mengalami pertumbuhan negatif sampai 13 persen (prawoto, 2005). bangsa indonesia sejak awal kemerdekaan, telah mempunyai perhatian besar terhadap terciptanya masyarakat yang adil dan makmur sebagaimana termuat dalam alinea keempat pembukaan undang-undang dasar 1945. program-program pembangunan yang dilaksanakan selama ini juga selalu memberikan perhatian besar terhadap upaya pengentasan kemiskinan karena pada dasarnya pembangunan yang dilakukan bertujuan untuk meningkatkan kesejahteraan masyarakat. meskipun demikian, masalah kemiskinan sampai saat ini terus-menerus menjadi masalah yang berkepanjangan. sebenarnya sudah banyak program pengentasan kemiskinan yang dilakukan oleh pemerintah, namun belum membawa perubahan yang berarti. strategi pembangunan yang dikembangkan bangsa indonesia selama ini adalah bertumpu pada pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tinggi. pertumbuhan ekonomi yang dianggap tinggi tersebut ternyata tidak diikuti dengan pemerataan distribusi pendapatan pada semua golongan masyarakat. sehingga terjadi trade-off antara pertumbunan dan pemerataan. dalam atmosfer strategi ini, memunculkan budaya konglomerasi yang diharapkan akan menghasilkan trickle down effect kepada lapisan ekonomi di bawahnya. model seperti ini mendasarkan diri pada pembangunan industri secara besar-besaran. permasalahan yang timbul adalah tidak berjalannya mekanisme trickle down effcts, dimana mekanisme tersebut sebenarnya sangat diyakini akan terbentuk sejalan dengan meningkatnya akumulasi kapital dan perkembangan institusi ekonomi yang mampu menyebarkan kesejahteraan yang merata. namun demikian yang terjadi justru sebaliknya, yaitu tetesan dorongan atau pemerataan ke bawah tidak terjadi, mungkin sejak awal aturan dari pemerintah tidak jelas dan juga egoistik konglomerasi akhirnya yang terjadi adalah ketidakseimbangan pembagian pendapatan dari pembangunan itu sendiri. problema kemiskinan terus menjadi masalah besar sepanjang sejarah indonesia sebagai sebuah negara. dalam negara yang salah urus, tidak ada persoalan yang lebih besar, selain persoalan kemiskinan. kemiskinan telah membuat jutaan anak-anak tidak bisa mengenyam pendidikan yang berkualitas, kesulitan membiayai kesehatan, kurangnya tabungan dan tidak adanya investasi, kurangnya akses ke pelayanan publik, kurangnya lapangan pekerjaan, kurangnya jaminan sosial dan perlindungan terhadap keluarga, menguatnya arus urbanisasi ke kota, dan yang lebih parah, kemiskinan menyebabkan jutaan rakyat memenuhi kebutuhan pangan, sandang dan papan secara terbatas. kemiskinan, menyebabkan masyarakat desa rela mengorbankan apa saja demi keselamatan hidup, safety life (james. c.scott, 1981), mempertaruhkan tenaga fisik untuk memproduksi keuntungan bagi tengkulak lokal dan menerima upah yang tidak sepadan dengan biaya tenaga yang dikeluarkan. para buruh tani desa bekerja sepanjang hari, tetapi mereka menerima upah yang sangat sedikit (sahdan, 2005). jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 56 68 58 pendek kata, kemiskinan merupakan persoalan yang sangat kompleks dan kronis. karena sangat kompleks dan kronis, maka cara penanggulangan kemiskinan pun membutuhkan analisis yang tepat, melibatkan semua komponen permasalahan, dan diperlukan strategi penanganan yang tepat, berkelanjutan dan tidak bersifat temporer. sejumlah variabel dapat dipakai untuk melacak persoalan kemiskinan, dan dari variabel ini dihasilkan serangkaian strategi dan kebijakan penanggulangan kemiskinan yang tepat sasaran dan berkesinambungan. dari dimensi pendidikan misalnya, pendidikan yang rendah dipandang sebagai penyebab kemiskinan. dari dimensi kesehatan, rendahnya mutu kesehatan masyarakat menyebabkan terjadinya kemiskinan. dari dimensi ekonomi, kepemilikan alat-alat produktif yang terbatas, penguasaan teknologi dan kurangnya keterampilan, dilihat sebagai alasan mendasar mengapa terjadi kemiskinan. faktor kultur dan struktural juga sering dilihat sebagai elemen penting yang menentukan tingkat kemakmuran dan kesejahteraan masyarakat. tidak ada yang salah dan keliru dengan pendekatan tersebut, tetapi dibutuhkan keterpaduan antara berbagai faktor penyebab kemiskinan yang sangat banyak dengan indikator-indikator yang jelas, sehingga kebijakan penanggulangan kemiskinan tidak bersifat temporer, tetapi permanen dan berkelanjutan. selama tiga dekade, upaya penanggulangan kemiskinan dilakukan dengan penyediaan kebutuhan dasar seperti pangan, pelayanan kesehatan dan pendidikan, perluasan kesempatan kerja, pembangunan pertanian, pemberian dana bergulir melalui sistem kredit, pembangunan prasarana dan pendampingan, penyuluhan sanitasi dan sebagainya. dari serangkaian cara dan strategi penanggulangan kemiskinan tersebut, semuanya berorentasi material, sehingga keberlanjutannya sangat tergantung pada ketersediaan anggaran dan komitmen pemerintah. di samping itu, tidak adanya tatanan pemerintahan yang demokratis menyebabkan rendahnya akseptabilitas dan inisiatif masyarakat untuk menanggulangi kemiskinan dengan cara mereka sendiri. masalah kemiskinan memang telah lama menjadi problema ada sejak dahulu kala. pada masa lalu umumnya masyarakat menjadi miskin bukan karena kurang pangan, tetapi miskin dalam bentuk minimnya kemudahan atau materi. dari ukuran kehidupan modern pada masa kini mereka tidak menikmati fasilitas pendidikan, pelayanan kesehatan, dan kemudahan-kemudahan lainnya yang tersedia pada jaman modern. kemiskinan sebagai suatu penyakit sosial ekonomi tidak hanya dialami oleh negaranegara yang sedang berkembang, tetapi juga negara-negara maju, seperti inggris dan amerika serikat. negara inggris mengalami kemiskinan di penghujung tahun 1700-an pada era kebangkitan revolusi industri yang muncul di eropa. pada masa itu kaum miskin di inggris berasal dari tenaga-tenaga kerja pabrik yang sebelumnya sebagai petani yang mendapatkan upah rendah, sehingga kemampuan daya belinya juga rendah. mereka umumnya tinggal di permukiman kumuh yang rawan terhadap penyakit sosial lainnya, seperti prostitusi, kriminalitas, pengangguran. amerika serikat sebagai negara maju juga dihadapi masalah kemiskinan, terutama pada masa depresi dan resesi ekonomi tahun 1930-an. pada tahun 1960-an amerika serikat tercatat sebagai negara adi daya dan terkaya di dunia. sebagian besar penduduknya hidup dalam kecukupan. bahkan amerika serikat telah banyak memberi bantuan kepada negara-negara lain. namun, di balik keadaan itu tercatat sebanyak 32 juta orang atau seperenam dari jumlah penduduknya tergolong miskin. memahami kemiskinan dan strategi penanggulangannya ... (nano prawoto) 59 namun demikian seperti pernyataan di atas tadi bahwa kemiskinan di negara maju tentu relatif berbeda dengan di negara terbelakang seperti di indonesia. di indonesia tekanan kemiskinan selain tidak menerima fasilitas kehidupan modern tetapi kebutuhan dasar (basic need) masih menjadi problema serius. dan dalam waktu akhir-akhir ini banyak berita media massa mengekspos kondisi masyarakat miskin yang semakin ke arah kebutuhan dasar saja seperti makan, sandang, papan, berarti menunjukkan kondisi kemiskinan sekarang semakin buruk dari kemiskinan pada tahun-tahun sebelumnya. masalah kemiskinan bukan hanya melibatkan negara dunia ketiga melainkan juga negara yang sedang berkembang. hal ini karena disamping kemiskinan berkaitan dengan orang yang tidak mampu membiayai hidupnya secara layak (kemiskinan absolut) namun juga berkaitan dengan perbandingan yang timpang antara penduduk berpenghasilan tinggi dengan penduduk berpenghasilan yang paling rendah. data yang sudah cukup lama pada tahun 1993 total penduduk miskin dunia sekita 1,2 milyar. dari jumlah itu sebagaian besar berada di kawasan asia selatan sebesar 520 juta. di bagian belahan dunia lainnya, di asia timur penduduk miskin sebesar 220 juta, sub sahara afrika sebesar 160 juta, di timur tengah/afrika utara sebesar 60 juta dan kawasan amerika latin sebesar 70 juta (word bank report). angka estimasi relatif baru 1995 – 1999 dari unctad, united nations report 2002 jumlah penduduk 49 negara terbelakang (ldc) sebesar 613 juta yang hidup dengan biaya di bawah $1 per hari sebesar 307 juta orang. sedang penduduk yang hidup dengan biaya per hari di bawah $2 sebesar 495 juta orang. di negara terbelakang afrika pada pertengahan tahun 1990an, terdapat 87 persen penduduknya hidup dengan konsumsi di bawah $2 per hari dengan rata-rata konsumsi per hari hanya 85 sen dollar. 65 persen hidup dengan konsumsi di bawah $1 per hari dan dengan rata-rata konsumsi per hari hanya 59 sen dollar. data lain di negara terbelakang di asia menunjukkan pada pertengahan tahun 1990an, terdapat 65 persen penduduk yang hidup dengan konsumsi di bawah $2 dan dengan rata-rata konsumsi per hari hanya $1.42. sedangakan terdapat 23% penduduk yang hidup dengan konsumsi di bawah $1 dengan rata-rata konsumsi hanya sebesar 90 sen dollar. gambaran tersebut akhirnya memunculkan pemikiran ragnar nurske, bahwa kemiskinan ditengarai adanya lingkaran setan (the vicious circle of poverty). jadi lingkaran setan menggambarkan bahwa tidak adanya ujung pangkal penyebab kemiskinan (seperti duluan mana antara telor dan ayam) apakah karena tabungan rendah, investasi rendah, kekurangan modal, rendahnya produktifitas, pendapatan rendah yang kembali menyebabkan tabungan rendah dan seterusnya. pertanyaannya yang mana dulu penyebabnya?. demikian akhirnya semua hanya berputar tanpa ada pangkal yang bisa ditunjuk sebagai sebabnya. (hudiyanto, 2001) indikator kemiskinan yang dikeluarkan oleh bappenas mempunyai makna yang relatif luas, yaitu dari berbagai sisi kebutuhan kehidupan, antara lain adalah; (1) terbatasnya kecukupan dan mutu pangan; (2) terbatasnya akses dan rendahnya mutu layanan kesehatan; (3) terbatasnya akses dan rendahnya mutu layanan pendidikan; (4) terbatasnya kesempatan kerja dan berusaha; (5) lemahnya perlindungan terhadap aset usaha, dan perbedaan upah; (6) terbatasnya akses layanan perumahan dan sanitasi; (7) terbatasnya akses terhadap air bersih; (8) lemahnya kepastian kepemilikan dan penguasaan tanah; (9) memburuknya kondisi lingkungan jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 56 68 60 hidup dan sumberdaya alam, serta terbatasnya akses masyarakat terhadap sumber daya alam; (10) lemahnya jaminan rasa aman; (11) lemahnya partisipasi; (12) besarnya beban kependudukan yang disebabkan oleh besarnya tanggungan keluarga; (13) tata kelola pemerintahan yang buruk yang menyebabkan inefisiensi dan inefektivitas dalam pelayanan publik, meluasnya korupsi dan rendahnya jaminan sosial terhadap masyarakat. (sahdan, 2005) dalam literatur banyak mendefinisikan kemiskinan, namun pada dasarnya dapat dibedakan menjadi tiga pengertian kemiskinan antara lain; kemiskinan absolut, kemiskinan relatif dan kemiskinan kultural. seseorang termasuk golongan miskin absolut apabila hasil pendapatannya berada di bawah garis kemiskinan, tidak cukup untuk memenuhi kebutuhan hidup minimum: pangan, sandang, kesehatan, papan, pendidikan. seseorang yang tergolong miskin relatif sebenarnya telah hidup di atas garis kemiskinan namun masih berada di bawah kemampuan masyarakat sekitarnya. sedang miskin kultural berkaitan erat dengan sikap seseorang atau sekelompok masyarakat yang tidak mau berusaha memperbaiki tingkat kehidupannya sekalipun ada usaha dari fihak lain yang membantunya. lebih lanjut, garis kemiskinan merupakan ukuran rata-rata kemampuan masyarakat untuk dapat memenuhi kebutuhan hidup minimum. melalui pendekatan sosial masih sulit mengukur garis kemiskinan masyarakat, tetapi dari indikator ekonomi secara teoritis dapat dihitung dengan menggunakan tiga pendekatan, yaitu pendekatan produksi, pendapatan, dan pengeluaran. sementara ini yang dilakukan biro pusat statistik (bps) untuk menarik garis kemiskinan adalah dengan menggunakan pendekatan pengeluaran. pembahasan menurut data bps hasil susenas pada akhir tahun 1998, garis kemiskinan penduduk perkotaan ditetapkan sebesar rp. 96.959 per kapita per bulan dan penduduk miskin perdesaan sebesar rp. 72.780 per kapita per bulan. dengan perhitungan uang tersebut dapat dibelanjakan untuk memenuhi konsumsi setara dengan 2.100 kalori per kapita per hari, ditambah dengan pemenuhan kebutuhan pokok minimum lainnya, seperti sandang, kesehatan, pendidikan, transportasi. angka garis kemiskinan ini jauh sangat tinggi bila dibanding dengan angka tahun 1996 sebelum krisis ekonomi yang hanya sekitar rp. 38.246 per kapita per bulan untuk penduduk perkotaan dan rp. 27.413 bagi penduduk perdesaan. sebagai perbandingan batas kemiskinan di negara maju seperti amerika serikat, departemen pertanian as pertama-tama melakukan estimasi biaya untuk mendapatkan makanan tepat gizi. kemudian berdasarkan asumsi bahwa orang miskin membelanjakan sepertiga pendapatan mereka untuk makanan. batas kemiskinan dihitung dengan mengalikan biaya makanan tersebut 3 (tiga) kali. penyesuaian dilakukan atas dasar keluarga dan inflasi dari waktu ke waktu. batas resmi pendapatan tunai untuk keluarga miskin dengan empat anggota adalah $16.400 pada tahun 1997. keluarga dengan empat anggota yang berada pada atau dibawah batas pendapatan tersebut dikatakan berada pada garis kemiskinan. batas kemiskinan tahun 1997 adalah terbentang mulai $8.350 per tahun untuk orang yang hidup sendiri dan $32.566 untuk keluarga dengan 9 (sembilan) atau lebih anggota. definisi kemiskinan didasarkan pada pendapatan tunai sebelum pajak, termasuk transfer tunai, tetapi tidak memasukkan nilai transfer non tunai seperti memahami kemiskinan dan strategi penanggulangannya ... (nano prawoto) 61 jatah makan, bantuan kesehatan, perumahan yang bersubsidi, atau asuransi kesehatan tenaga kerja otomatis (mceachern, 2001). angka kemiskinan indonesia tabel 1 menunjukkan bahwa jumlah penduduk miskin di indonesia lebih banyak didominasi di daerah pedesaan, lebih 2 kali lipat dari perkotaan. jumlah dan persentase penduduk miskin pada periode 1996-2005 berfluktuasi dari tahun ke tahun meskipun terlihat adanya kecenderungan menurun pada periode 2000-2005. pada periode 19961999 jumlah penduduk miskin meningkat sebesar 13,96 juta karena krisis ekonomi, yaitu dari 34,01 juta pada tahun 1996 menjadi 47,97 juta pada tahun 1999. persentase penduduk miskin meningkat dari 17,47 persen menjadi 23,43 persen pada periode yang sama. pada periode 1999-2002 terjadi penurunan jumlah penduduk miskin sebesar 9,57 juta, yaitu dari 47,97 juta pada tahun 1999 menjadi 38,40 juta pada tahun 2002. secara relatif juga terjadi penurunan persentase penduduk miskin dari 23,43 persen pada tahun 1999 menjadi 18,20 persen pada tahun 2002. penurunan jumlah penduduk miskin juga terjadi pada periode 20022005 sebesar 3,3 juta, yaitu dari 38,40 juta pada tahun 2002 menjadi 35,10 juta pada tahun 2005. persentase penduduk miskin turun dari 18,20 persen pada tahun 2002 menjadi 15,97 persen pada tahun 2005. jumlah penduduk miskin di indonesia (juta) 34,01 49,50 47,97 38,70 37,90 38,40 37,30 36,20 35,10 39,05 0,00 10,00 20,00 30,00 40,00 50,00 60,00 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 total gambar 1. jumlah penduduk miskin di indonesia (dalam jutaan) jumlah penduduk miskin di indonesia pada bulan maret 2006 sebesar 39,05 juta (17,75 persen). dibandingkan dengan penduduk miskin pada februari 2005 yang berjumlah 35,10 juta (15,97 persen), berarti jumlah penduduk miskin meningkat sebesar tabel 1. jumlah dan prosentase penduduk miskin di indonesia menurut daerah, tahun 1996-2006 tahun jumlah penduduk miskin (juta) prosentase penduduk miskin kota desa kota+desa kota desa kota+desa 1996 9,42 24,59 34,01 13,39 19,78 17,47 1998 17,60 31,90 49,50 21,92 25,72 24,23 1999 15,64 32,33 47,97 19,41 26,03 23,43 2000 12,30 26,40 38,70 14,60 22,38 19,14 2001 8,60 29,30 37,90 9,76 24,84 18,41 2002 13,30 25,10 38,40 14,46 21,10 18,20 2003 12,20 25,10 37,30 13,57 20,23 17,42 2004 11,40 24,80 36,20 12,13 20,11 16,66 2005 12,40 22,70 35,10 11,37 19,51 15,97 2006 14,29 24,76 39,05 13,36 21,90 17,75 sumber : diolah dari data survei sosial ekonomi nasional (susenas) jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 56 68 62 3,95 juta. pertambahan penduduk miskin di daerah perdesaan sedikit lebih tinggi dari pada daerah perkotaan. selama periode februari 2005-maret 2006, penduduk miskin di daerah perdesaan bertambah 2,06 juta, sementara di daerah perkotaan bertambah 1,89 juta orang. persentase penduduk miskin antara daerah perkotaan dan perdesaan tidak banyak berubah. pada bulan februari 2005, sebagian besar (64,67 persen) penduduk miskin berada di daerah perdesaan, sementara pada bulan maret 2006 persentase ini turun sedikit menjadi 63,41 persen (berita resmi statistik, 2006). prosentase penduduk miskin di indonesia 17,47 24,23 23,43 19,14 18,41 18,20 17,42 16,66 15,97 17,75 0,00 5,00 10,00 15,00 20,00 25,00 30,00 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 % gambar 2. persentase penduduk miskin di indonesia paradigma yang keliru program penanggulangan kemiskinan yang dilakukan oleh pemerintah selama ini hasilnya masih belum sesuai harapan semua pihak. evaluasi penanganan tampaknya masih memperlihatkan beberapa kekeliruan paradigmatik (huraerah, 2005): 1. masih berorientasi pada aspek ekonomi daripada aspek multidimensional. penanggulangan kemiskinan dengan fokus perhatian pada aspek ekonomi terbukti mengalami kegagalan, karena pengentasan kemiskinan yang direduksi dalam soal-soal ekonomi tidak akan mewakili persoalan kemiskinan yang sebenarnya. dalam konteks budaya, orang miskin diindikasikan dengan terlembaganya nilai-nilai seperti apatis, apolitis, fatalistik, ketidakberdayaan, dsb. sementara dalam konteks dimensi struktural atau politik, orang yang mengalami kemiskinan ekonomi pada hakekatnya karena mengalami kemiskinan struktural dan politis. 2. lebih bernuansa karitatif (kemurahan hati) ketimbang produktivitas. penanggulangan kemiskinan yang hanya didasarkan atas karitatif, tidak akan muncul dorongan dari masyarakat miskin sendiri untuk berupaya bagaimana mengatasi kemiskinannya. mereka akan selalu menggantungkan diri pada bantuan yang diberikan pihak lain. padahal program penanggulangan kemiskinan seharusnya diarahkan supaya mereka menjadi produktif. 3. memosisikan masyarakat miskin sebagai objek daripada subjek. seharusnya, mereka dijadikan sebagai subjek, yaitu sebagai pelaku perubahan yang aktif terlibat dalam aktivitas program penanggulangan kemiskinan. 4. pemerintah masih sebagai penguasa daripada fasilitator. dalam penanganan kemiskinan, pemerintah masih bertindak sebagai penguasa yang kerapkali turut campur tangan terlalu luas dalam kehidupan orang-orang miskin. sebaliknya, pemerintah semestinya bertindak sebagai fasilitator, yang tugasnya mengembangkan potensi-potensi yang mereka miliki. dalam hal ini, suharto (2003) mengatakan bahwa paradigma baru menekankan “apa yang dimiliki orang miskin” ketimbang “apa yang tidak dimiliki orang miskin”. potensi orang miskin tersebut bisa berbentuk aset personal dan sosial, serta berbagai strategi penanganan masalah (coping memahami kemiskinan dan strategi penanggulangannya ... (nano prawoto) 63 strategies) yang telah dijalankannya secara lokal. kegagalan penanggulangan kemiskinan kebijakan penanggulangan kemiskinan selama ini, dilakukan secara sentralistik oleh pemerintah pusat yang diwakili bappenas, dengan dana apbn (anggaran pendapatan dan belanja negara) dan utang kepada bank dunia serta lembaga keuangan multinasional lainnya. sejak tahun 1970-an dengan kebijakan pembangunan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tinggi pemerintah pusat menjadikan desa dan sebagian kota sebagai obyek dari seluruh proyek yang dijalankan untuk menanggulangi kemiskinan. berdasarkan kebijakan tersebut, pemerintah pusat menjalankan program-programnya dalam bentuk: (1) menurunkan bantuan kredit, jaminan usaha dan pengadaan sarana dan prasarana di desa seperti puskesmas, inpres, kud, dan sebagainya; (2) mengusahakan pemenuhan kebutuhan pangan melalui distribusi sembako yang dibagikan secara gratis kepada penduduk miskin; (3) mengusahakan pelayanan kesehatan yang memadai dengan menyebarkan tenaga-tenaga kesehatan ke desa dan pengadaan obat-obatan melalui puskesmas; (4) mengusahakan penyediaan fasilitas pendidikan dasar dengan pendirian sekolah-sekolah inpres; (5) menyediakan kesempatan bekerja dan berusaha melalui proyek-proyek perbaikan sarana dan prasarana milik pemerintah, penyediaan kredit dan modal usaha yang diberikan dalam bentuk pinjaman kepada masyarakat miskin; (6) memenuhi kebutuhan papan dan sanitasi dengan penyediaan rumah-rumah sederhana untuk orang miskin perumnas; (7) mengusahakan pemenuhan air bersih dengan pengadaan pam; (8) menyediakan sarana listrik masuk desa, sarana telekomunikasi dan sejenisnya; dan sebagainya. berbagai program yang dijalankan oleh pemerintah tersebut, lebih banyak menuai kegagalan dibandingkan dengan keberhasilannya. program yang dilakukan banyak mengalami kegagalan dikarenakan pada pelaksanaannya terjadi penyimpanganpenyimpangan, seperti kut (kredit usaha tani). sejak tahun 2000, program kut yang dianggap gagal total diganti pemerintah dengan program baru yakni program kredit ketahanan pangan (kkp) yang pelaksanaannya diserahkan sepenuhnya kepada bank, pemerintah hanya bertindak sebagai pemberi subsidi pada tahap awal. di samping program kut dan kkp juga ada program pengembangan kecamatan (ppk). program ini bertujuan mengurangi kemiskinan di tingkat pedesaan, sekaligus memperbaiki kinerja pemerintah daerah dengan cara memberi bantuan modal dan pengadaan infrastruktur. inti dari program ini adalah perencanaan yang melibatkan masyarakat, laki-laki dan perempuan, termasuk masyarakat miskin. program ini di beberapa daerah mengalami kegagalan, karena tidak adanya perencanaan yang matang dan juga kurangnya transparansi penggunaan dan alokasi anggaran kepada masyarakat desa. kisah kegagalan program yang dirancang dan didanai oleh pemerintah dan bank dunia, juga terjadi dalam program padat karya desa-pengembangan wilayah terpadu (pkd-pwt) di ntt, sulawesi selatan, ntb dan sulawesi utara serta program pdmdek di jawa barat. program pkd-pwt membagikan uang bantuan sebesar 50 juta rupiah kepada setiap desa dan langsung disalurkan ke rekening tim pelaksana desa (tpd). jumlah desa yang dibantu dengan program ini mencapai 1.957 desa. program ini mengalami kegagalan, karena proses perencanaan, pelaksanaan dan penyaluran bantuan kepada desa, sangat tergantung kepada tpd. sementara pdmdek di jawa barat, mengajurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 56 68 64 lami kegagalan karena dana bergulir yang diberikan kepada masing-masing desa sebanyak 14 juta rupiah per desa, digunakan masyarakat untuk tujuan konsumtif. (sahdan, 2005) masih banyak program lain dalam upaya mengatasi kemiskinan tersebut telah dilakukan, misalnya, program inpres desa tertinggal (idt). inpres ini, yaitu inpres no. 5/1993 tentang peningkatan penanggulangan kemiskinan. pada saat terjadinya krisis ekonomi yang kemudian berlanjut menjadi krisis multidimensional, diluncurkan program daerah dalam mengatasi dampak krisis ekonomi (pdm-dke) yang kemudian dilanjutkan dengan program pengentasan kemiskinan perkotaan (p2kp), dan lain-lain. meskipun masyarakat miskin telah mendapatkan bantuan program pengentasan kemiskinan, tapi hasilnya tidak seperti yang diharapkan. dengan demikian evaluasi selalu harus dilakukan oleh pemerintah karena bagaimanapun program penanggulangan kemiskinan tetap harus dijalankan. strategi penanggulangan kemiskinan memahami dan upaya menangani kemiskinan memang menarik untuk disimak. dalam teori ekonomi mengatakan bahwa untuk memutus mata rantai lingkaran setan kemiskinan dapat dilakukan peningkatan keterampilan sumber daya manusianya, penambahan modal investasi, dan mengembangkan teknologi. melalui berbagai suntikan maka diharapkan produktifitas akan meningkat. namun, dalam praktek persoalannya tidak semudah itu. lantas apa yang dapat dilakukan? program-program penanggulangan kemiskinan sudah banyak dilaksanakan di berbagai negara. sebagai perbandingan, di amerika serikat program penanggulangan kemiskinan diarahkan untuk meningkatkan kerjasama ekonomi antarnegara bagian, memperbaiki kondisi pemukiman perkotaan dan pedesaan, perluasan kesempatan pendidikan dan kerja untuk para pemuda, penyelenggaraan pendidikan dan pelatihan bagi orang dewasa, dan pemberian bantuan kepada kaum miskin usia lanjut. selain program pemerintah, juga kalangan masyarakat ikut terlibat membantu kaum miskin melalui organisasi kemasyarakatan, gereja, dan sebagainya. sedangkan di negara indonesia sebenarnya dari uraian di atas juga melakukan upaya yang hampir sama seperti yang dilakukan di amerika serikat, mungkin tingkat komprehensifitasnya yang masih diperlukan. penanganan kemiskinan di indonesia masih didominasi sektor ekonomi, belum begitu menyentuh aspek lain seperti sosial, budaya, hukum dan politik, bahkan agama. kekeliruan paradigma dalam memahami kemiskinan tentu menyebabkan adanya analisis yang keliru, artinya seharusnya memunculkan variabel-variabel yang signifikan untuk menganggulangi kemiskinan justru variabel yang tidak signifikan dimasukkan, sehingga estimasi bias dan hasil yang diharapkan tidak terjadi. mencermati beberapa kekeliruan paradigmatik penanggulangan kemiskinan tadi, ada strategi yang harus dilakukan untuk mengatasi kemiskinan (huraerah, 2005): 1. karena kemiskinan bersifat multidimensional, maka program pengentasan kemiskinan seyogyanya juga tidak hanya memprioritaskan aspek ekonomi tapi memperhatikan dimensi lain. dengan kata lain, pemenuhan kebutuhan pokok memang perlu mendapat prioritas, namun juga harus mengejar target mengatasi kemiskinan nonekonomik. strategi pengentasan kemiskinan hendaknya diarahkan untuk mengikis nilai-nilai budaya memahami kemiskinan dan strategi penanggulangannya ... (nano prawoto) 65 negatif seperti apatis, apolitis, fatalistik, ketidakberdayaan, dan sebagainya. apabila budaya ini tidak dihilangkan, kemiskinan ekonomi akan sulit untuk ditanggulangi. selain itu, langkah pengentasan kemiskinan yang efektif harus pula mengatasi hambatanhambatan yang sifatnya struktural dan politis. 2. untuk meningkatkan kemampuan dan mendorong produktivitas, strategi yang dipilih adalah peningkatan kemampuan dasar masyarakat miskin untuk meningkatkan pendapatan melalui langkah perbaikan kesehatan dan pendidikan, peningkatan keterampilan usaha, teknologi, perluasan jaringan kerja (networking), serta informasi pasar. 3. melibatkan masyarakat miskin dalam keseluruhan proses penanggulangan kemiskinan, mulai dari perencanaan, pelaksanaan, pengawasan, dan evaluasi, bahkan pada proses pengambilan keputusan. 4. strategi pemberdayaan. kelompok agrarian populism yang dipelopori kelompok pakar dan aktivis lsm, menegaskan, masyarakat miskin adalah kelompok yang mampu membangun dirinya sendiri jika pemerintah mau memberi kebebasan bagi kelompok itu untuk mengatur dirinya. selain strategi di atas barangkali dalam era otonomi daerah sekarang ini sebesarnya jika kita jujur bahwa data kemiskinan, baik yang bersifat kuantitatif maupun kualitatif yang menyangkut perilaku, potensi, daya saing masyarakat adalah pemerintah daerah. memang ironisnya pemerintah daerah seolah tidak tanggap. dan ketika wartawan dan media massa mengekspos ada daerah yang penduduknya makan nasi ”aking” atau ”telo”, bupati dan jajarannya baru gerah dan turun ke desa. artinya strategi daerah menciptakan iklim yang memungkinkan masyarakat berkembang, memperkuat potensi dan daya yang dimiliki masyarakat, juga model pemberdayaan masyarakat. strategi yang bersifat bantuan langsung (blt) ke masyarakat miskin yang diselenggarakan selama ini sangat bersifat jangka pendek dan itu sebenarnya menurut pengalaman di negara maju seperi misalnya amerika serikat, blt hanya diberikan kepada masyarakat yang benar-benar tidak berdaya. strategi yang dikembangkan yang berorentasi jangka panjang adalah justru bantuan tidak langsung yang bersifat pemberdayaan. misalnya, program peningkatan kemampuan dan keterampilan kerja/ usaha melalui pendidikan dan latihan-latihan kerja, perluasan jaringan usaha (networking), dan informasi pasar, bantuan modal kerja. untuk menunjang keberhasilan strategi tersebut, diperlukan unsur-unsur berikut (sahdan, 2005): 1. upaya penanggulangan kemiskinan tersebut sebaiknya dilakukan secara menyeluruh, terpadu, lintas sektor, dan sesuai dengan kondisi dan budaya lokal, karena tidak ada satu kebijakan kemiskinan yang sesuai untuk semua. 2. memberikan perhatian terhadap aspek proses, tanpa mengabaikan hasil akhir dari proses tersebut. biarkan orang miskin merasakan bagaimana proses mereka bisa keluar dari lingkaran setan kemiskinan. 3. melibatkan dan merupakan hasil proses dialog dengan berbagai pihak dan konsultan dengan segenap pihak yang berkepentingan terutama masyarakat miskin. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 56 68 66 4. meningkatkan kesadaran dan kepedulian di kalangan semua pihak yang terkait, serta membangkitkan gairah mereka yang terlibat untuk mengambil peran yang sesuai agar tercipta rasa memiliki program. 5. menyediakan ruang gerak yang seluasluasnya, bagi munculnya aneka inisiatif dan kreativitas masyarakat di berbagai tingkat. dalam hal ini, pemerintah lebih berperan hanya sebagai inisiator, selanjutnya bertindak sebagai fasilitator dalam proses tersebut, sehingga akhirnya, kerangka dan pendekatan penanggulangan kemiskinan disepakati bersama. 6. pemerintah dan pihak lainnya (ornop, perguruan tinggi, pengusaha, masyarakat madani, partai politik dan lembaga sosial keagamaan) dapat bergabung menjadi kekuatan yang saling mendukung. 7. mereka yang bertanggungjawab dalam menyusun anggaran belanja harus menyadari pentingnya penanggulangan kemiskinan ini sehingga upaya ini ditempatkan dan mendapat prioritas utama dalam setiap program di setiap instansi. dengan demikian, penanggulangan kemiskinan menjadi gerakan dari, oleh dan untuk rakyat. secara umum, program strategis yang dapat dijalankan untuk menanggulangi kemiskinan adalah: 1. membuka peluang dan kesempatan berusaha bagi orang miskin untuk berpartisipasi dalam proses pembangunan ekonomi. 2. kebijakan dan program untuk memberdayakan kelompok miskin. kemiskinan memiliki sifat multidimensional, maka penanggulangannya tidak cukup hanya dengan mengandalkan pendekatan ekonomi, akan tetapi juga mengandalkan kebijakan dan program di bidang sosial, politik, hukum dan kelembagaan. 3. kebijakan dan program yang melindungi kelompok miskin. kelompok masyarakat miskin sangat rentan terhadap goncangan internal (misalnya kepala keluarga meninggal, jatuh sakit, kena phk) maupun goncangan eksternal (misalnya kehilangan pekerjaan, bencana alam, konflik sosial), karena tidak memiliki ketahanan atau jaminan dalam menghadapi goncangan-goncangan tersebut. 4. kebijakan dan program untuk memutus pewarisan kemiskinan antar generasi; hak anak dan peranan perempuan. kemiskinan seringkali diwariskan dari generasi ke generasi berikutnya. karena itu, rantai pewarisan kemiskinan harus diputus. meningkatkan pendidikan dan peranan perempuan dalam keluarga adalah salah satu kunci memutus rantai kemiskinan. 5. kebijakan dan program penguatan otonomi desa. otonomi desa dapat menjadi ruang yang memungkinkan masyarakat desa dapat menanggulangi sendiri kemiskinannya. penanggulangan kemiskinan aspek sosial budaya mengingat kemiskinan yang sebenarnya tidak sekedar miskin secara ekonomi, maka penanggulangan kemiskinan dari aspek sosial budaya juga sangat diharapkan melalui beberapa program seperti: 1. dengan adanya keberagaman budaya (multikultur) dan kearifan lokal (local wisdom), yang juga diperlukan pencermemahami kemiskinan dan strategi penanggulangannya ... (nano prawoto) 67 matan tersendiri, apabila melakukan proses empowerment masyarakat miskin maka melakukan transformasi sosial dari masyarakat yang tidak berdaya, menjadi masyarakat berdaya, untuk selanjutnya berproses menuju masyarakat mandiri hingga mencapai suatu masyarakat yang madani (civil society). 2. patriarkhi menempatkan perempuan sebagai subordinat, sehingga terjadi peran dominasi laki-laki atas perempuan dalam ranah keluarga maupun kemasyarakatan. dari sini akan memunculkan ketidaksetaraan yang lebih menguntungkan laki-laki dan lebih jauh mengarah ketidakadilan gender, sehingga untuk melakukan perubahan sosial dalam mendekonstruksi ketidakadilan gender dalam pembangunan harus dilakukan melalui perspektif gender. 3. meningkatkan peran keberadaan para elite di masyarakat dalam sebuah kultur yang paternalistik adalah sangat berpengaruh dalam hubungan kemasyarakatan dan memiliki andil besar dalam kebijakan pembangunan aras desa. 4. reformasi diri melalui perubahan budaya "statik" ke budaya "progresif" di kalangan masyarakat. dari budaya yang malas, tidak teratur, kurang disiplin, statis dll, menjadi memiliki budaya giat bekerja, teratur, disiplin, ambil bagian, progresif. 5. morishama (1982) mengemukakan keberhasilan pembangunan ekonomi jepang terjadi sebagai akibat dari ciri-ciri konfusianisme yang mengajarkan umatnya loyal, nasionalis, dan kolektivitas sosial. 6. mengembangkan nilai-nilai budaya bangsa yang lulur pada sisi nilai dasar dan komposit kemajuan seperti pada dua tabel 2 dan tabel 3. (tri pranadji, 2004) tabel 2 . nilai komposit kemajuan nilai komposit kemajuan nilai komposit keterbelakangan 1. produktif dan humanistik 2. keadilan dan berbudi pekerti tinggi 3. menjunjung tinggi solidaritas 4. mengutamakan keberlanjutan dan ketegaran diri yang tinggi eksploitatif dan intimidatif imperalistik dan berbudi pekerti rendah bercerai berai dan saling menyalahkan mendahulukan hasil segera dan kerapuhan diri yang tinggi tabel 3. nilai-nilai dasar kemajuan nilai-nilai dasar kemajuan nilai-nilai dasar terbelakang 1. rasa malu dan harga diri 2. kerja keras 3. rajin dan disiplin 4. hidup hemat dan produktif 5. gandrung inovasi 6. menghargai prestasi 7. sistematik dan terorganisir 8. empati tinggi 9. rasional/ impersonal 10. sabar dan syukur 11. amanah (high trust) 12. visi jangka panjang rai gedheg dan rendah diri kerja lembek malas dan seenaknya borong dan konsumtif resisten inovasi askriptif/ primordial acak dan difuse antipati tinggi emosional/personal pemarah dan penuntut tidak bisa dipercaya visi jangka pendek jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 56 68 68 kesimpulan masalah kemiskinan sampai saat ini terusmenerus menjadi masalah yang berkepanjangan. sebenarnya sudah banyak program pengentasan kemiskinan yang dilakukan oleh pemerintah, namun belum membawa perubahan yang berarti. program-program penanggulangan kemiskinan sudah banyak dilaksanakan di berbagai negara. strategi pembangunan yang dikembangkan bangsa indonesia selama ini adalah bertumpu pada pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tinggi. pertumbuhan ekonomi yang dianggap tinggi tersebut ternyata tidak diikuti dengan pemerataan distribusi pendapatan pada semua golongan masyarakat. sehingga terjadi trade-off antara pertumbuhan dan pemerataan. mencermati beberapa kekeliruan paradigmatik penanggulangan kemiskinan, dimana analisis yang seharusnya memunculkan variabel-variabel yang signifikan suntuk menganggulangi kemiskinan justru variabel yang tidak signifikan dimasukkan, maka strategi yang harus dilakukan untuk mengatasi kemiskinan: seyogyanya juga tidak hanya memprioritaskan aspek ekonomi tapi memperhatikan dimensi lain; untuk meningkatkan kemampuan dan mendorong produktivitas, strategi yang dipilih adalah peningkatan kemampuan dasar masyarakat miskin untuk meningkatkan pendapatan; melibatkan masyarakat miskin dalam keseluruhan proses penanggulangan kemiskinan; strategi pemberdayaan. untuk menunjang keberhasilan strategi tersebut, diperlukan unsur-unsur berikut: upaya tersebut sebaiknya dilakukan secara menyeluruh, terpadu, lintas sektor, dan sesuai dengan kondisi dan budaya lokal; memberikan perhatian terhadap aspek proses, tanpa mengabaikan hasil akhir dari proses tersebut; melibatkan dan merupakan hasil proses dialog dengan berbagai pihak dan konsultan dengan segenap pihak yang berkepentingan terutama masyarakat miskin; meningkatkan kesadaran dan kepedulian di kalangan semua pihak yang terkait; menyediakan ruang gerak yang seluas-luasnya, bagi munculnya aneka inisiatif dan kreativitas masyarakat; pemerintah dan pihak lainnya bergabung menjadi kekuatan yang saling mendukung. daftar pustaka dalle daniel. 2003. “pemberdayaan masyarakat miskin di era otonomi daerah”. jurnal ekonomi rakyat tahun ii, no. 2. yogyakarta. sahdan, gregorius. 2005. menganggulangi kemiskinan desa. artikel-ekonomi rakyat dan kemiskinan. yogyakarta. hudiyanto. 2001. pengantar ekonomi pembangunan. ppe umy. yogyakarta. huraerah, abu. 2005. strategi penanggulangan kemiskinan. www.google.com, indonesia. mceachern, william a. 2001. ekonomi mikro, terjemahan. penerbit salemba empat. jakarta. prawoto, nano. 2005. “analisis elastisitas dan tingkat kesulitan realisasi penerimaan sumber keuangan kabupaten sleman”. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan vol 6 no. 1. fe umy wiwik suhartiningsih. 2006. kemiskinan dan data kemiskinan. www.google. com, indonesia. studi efektivitas pelayanan publik di kecamatan kejaksan kota cirebon jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 89 104 analisis impor indonesia: pendekatan persamaan simultan imamudin yuliadi fakultas ekonomi universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta jalan lingkar selatan, tamantirto, kasihan, bantul, yogyakarta, telp/fax. 0274-387656 psw 184, 387646 email: imamudin2006@yahoo.co.id abstrak: dalam rangka mendorong industrialisasi, beberapa bahan baku dan bahan-bahan pendukung telah diimpor untuk mencapai tujuan ekonomis. tujuan dari penelitian ini menganalisis variabel-variabel ekspor, dasar tukar perdagangan (terms of trade), time lag impor, dan nilai tukar mata uang yang mempengaruhi impor indonesia. metode analisis yang digunakan adalah metode explanatory untuk menguji hipotesis hubungan simultan antarvariabel yang diteliti, dengan mengembangkan karakteristik verifikatif penelitian. model dalam penelitian ini menggunakan model simultan dengan two stage least square (tsls). hasul penelitian menunjukkan bahwa ekspor, waktu lag impor dan dasar tukar perdagangan (terms of trade) berpengaruh positif terhadap impor. sementara itu, nilai tukar mata uang berpengaruh negatif. kata kunci: terms of trade, impor, industrialisasi, tingkat investasi, model persamaan simultan abstract: to induced industrialization several raw materials and supported goods have imported to achieve economic goals. the goals of this research is to analyse some variable indeed export, terms of trade, time lag of import and exchange rate approximately have affected to import in indonesia. analytical method used in this research is explanatory method which is to tes hyphotesis about simultaneous relationship among variables that research, by developing the characteristics of verificative research. we used simultaneous model with two stage least square (tsls). the result of this research shows that export, time lag of import and terms of trade have affected to importe positive and significantly. meanwhile exchange rate have affected import negative and significantly. otherwise terms of trade have not affected to import in indonesia. keywords: terms of trade, import, industrialization, investment rate, simultaneous equation model pendahuluan sebagai realisasi dari program pembangunan ekonomi nasional (propenas) 2000–2004 telah dirumuskan strategi untuk membangun industri berdasarkan prinsip efisiensi yang didukung oleh peningkatan kemampuan sumberdaya manusia dan teknologi untuk memperkuat landasan pembangunan berkelanjutan dan meningkatkan daya saing nasional. strategi tersebut membawa implikasi pada peningkatan nilai impor indonesia untuk jenis barang modal disamping barang konsumsi. kegiatan impor indonesia juga terus meningkat seiring dengan meningkatnya pertumbuhan ekonomi domestik dan volume ekspor. fenomena ini merupakan karakteristik dari suatu negara berkembang yang cukup tinggi ketergantungannya terhajurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 89 104 90 dap fluktuasi ekonomi eksternal. jenis komoditas impor indonesia menyangkut komoditas bahan baku dan bahan penolong untuk menunjang industri di dalam negeri. pada tabel 1 ditampilkan perkembangan data impor indonesia menurut golongan barang ekonomi. data mengenai impor indonesia menunjukkan gejala peningkatan yang stabil dari tahun ke tahun dimana sampai dengan triwulan ii 2004 total impor barang dan jasa senilai rp.133.371,3 juta meningkat cukup tajam dibandingkan waktu yang sama tahun 2003 sebesar rp.113.621,5 juta. jika ditinjau dari komoditas yang diimpor nilai impor bahan baku dan penolong pada bulan april 2004 tercatat sebesar 2.804,9 juta $us meningkat dibandingkan waktu yang sama tahun 2003 sebesar 2.086,2 juta $us. jenis bahan baku dan penolong yang paling besar diimpor adalah bahan bakar dan pelumas yang utama nilai impor april 2004 sebesar 442,7 juta $us sedangkan untuk yang olahan nilainya 378 juta $us. kemudian disusul jenis komoditas suku cadang dan perlengkapannya untuk alat angkut yang nilainya 220 juta $us dan untuk barang modal sebesar 210,1 juta $us pada april 2004. sementara untuk komoditas bahan baku industri nilainya sebesar 183,6 juta $us dan yang olahan sebesar 1.170,2 juta $us meningkat dibandingkan tahun sebelumnya yang nilainya 200,3 juta $us untuk yang utama dan yang olahan sebesar 929,7 juta $us. jenis komoditas yang paling kecil nilai impornya adalah makanan dan minuman untuk industri yang nilainya sebesar 154,5 juta $us meningkat dibandingkan tahun 2003 sebesar 62 juta $us. gambar 1 memperlihatkan perkembangan impor indonesia dalam beberapa tahun terakhir baik untuk jenis komoditas konsumsi, komoditas bahan baku maupun komoditas modal. tingginya nilai impor indonesia dari tahun ke tahun terkait dengan karakter perekonomian indonesia yang sedang mendorong pertumbuhan ekonominya dimana banyak komponen bahan mentah dan penolong yang masih harus diimpor. kelangkaan bahan mentah dan penolong akan mengganggu proses produksi beberapa jenis komoditas di dalam negeri sehingga seiring dengan semakin tingginya laju pertumbuhan ekonomi akan diikuti dengan tingginya nilai impor dari waktu ke waktu. dan untuk beberapa jenis komoditas ekspor juga ada sebagian dari komponennya yang masih harus diimpor sehingga aktivitas impor sangat berpengaruh terhadap laju ekspor nasional. peranan impor dalam struktur model makroekonomi pada perekonomian terbuka sebagaimana dikembangkan dalam model tabel 1. nilai impor indonesia (juta us/$) jenis komoditas 2003 2004 januari februari maret trw. i april barang konsumsi 2862,8 285,3 292,4 300,7 878,4 290,1 bahan baku 25496,3 2580 2711 2787,7 8078,7 2804,9 barang modal 4191,5 477,6 386 381,3 1244,9 454,8 jumlah impor 32550,7 3342,9 3389,4 3469,7 10202 3549,8 sumber: bps, indikator ekonomi analisis impor indonesia (imamudin yuliadi) 91 mundell-fleming standar dirumuskan sebagai berikut: (mundell, 1968:124)  )/()()( dxd pepxgriycy         d m d d m p ep yim p ep ,. ........(1) ;/ pypy dd  ........(2) ;)1( md eppp   ........(3) rdrylp ),(. ........(4)                         . .. d m d d m d x d p ep yim p ep p ep xpr           e e rrk f ........(5) );(nfy  . ........(6) )(. nfpw n d  ........(7) dimana: y = pendapatan nasional c = konsumsi r = tingkat bunga dalam negeri rf = tingkat bunga luar negeri g = pengeluaran pemerintah x = ekspor im = impor pd = tingkat harga domestik d = jumlah obligasi pemerintah r = jumlah cadangan devisa pada sistem kurs tetap e = jumlah cadangan devisa pada sistem kurs fleksibel w = tingkat upah nominal n = jumlah tenaga kerja γ = kecenderungan rata-rata pembelian (averages propensity to spend) barangbarang domestik dan barang impor k = nilai capital inflow epx = nilai tukar barang-barang ekspor epm = nilai tukar barang-barang impor persamaan (1) merupakan persamaan yang menunjukkan suatu syarat keseimbangan antara permintaan dan penawaran untuk produksi domestik dengan tingkat harga pd. barang-barang yang dihasilkan dibeli baik oleh konsumen domestik, pemerintah atau diekspor. karena c, i dan g merupakan pengeluaran total dari produksi domestik maupun impor sehingga untuk menghindari terjadinya pencatatan permintaan ganda, maka besarnya impor (im) harus dikurangkan dari persamaan tersebut. karena barang-barang impor dan domestik merupakan barang yang berbeda, maka nilai barang-barang impor harus dikurangkan dari persamaan tersebut. jika impor barang dikalikan dengan harga dunia, pm, maka akan menunjukkan besarnya nilai tukar 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 tahun juta $ usa barang konsumsi bahan baku barang modal total gambar 1. perkembangan impor indonesia jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 89 104 92 dalam satuan unit. nilai tukar, e, menunjukkan besarnya harga mata uang domestik per satu unit mata uang luar negeri, sehingga epm/m mengukur besarnya impor dalam satuan mata uang domestik. akhirnya dengan membagi dengan harga domestik pd maka nilai impor menunjukkan besarnya barang-barang yang diproduksi secara fisik di dalam negeri dan diasumsikan bahwa impor merupakan barang dan jasa final. komponen impor dalam formulasi permintaan agregat (agregate demand) secara keseluruhan dapat dirumuskan sebagai berikut: (dornbusch, fischer and startz, 1998:189) y = c + i + g + x – m ..........(8) dimana: y = pendapatan nasional c = pengeluaran konsumsi i = pengeluaran investasi g = pengeluaran pemerintah x = ekspor m = impor kemudian perlu dirumuskan persamaan pendapatan disposibel (yd) yang nilainya diperoleh dari pengurangan pendapatan nasional (y) dengan pajak (tx) dan ditambah dengan pembayaran transfer (tr) dan dapat dirumuskan sebagai berikut (warren l smith, 1976:4): yd = y – tx + tr ..........(9) sedangkan pendapatan disposibel dialokasikan untuk pengeluaran konsumsi (c) dan sisanya untuk tabungan (s) sehingga dapat dirumukan sebagai berikut (warren l smith, 1976:190): yd = c + s ..........(10) dengan menggabungkan antara persamaan (9) dengan (10) dapat diperoleh suatu formulasi sebagai berikut (brian snowdon, howard vane and peter wynarczyk,1995: 288): c + s = yd = y tx + tr ..........(11) atau c = yd – s = y – tx + tr – s ..........(12) dengan mensubstitusikan persamaan (12) ke dalam persamaan (9) akan diperoleh formulasi sebagai berikut (brian snowdon, howard vane and peter wynarczyk, 1995: 193): y = y tx + tr – s + i + g + x – m …...(13) atau s – i = (g – tx + tr) + x – m …...(14) persamaan (14) menjelaskan bahwa kelebihan tabungan atas investasi (s – i) pada sektor swasta (private sector) nilainya sama dengan defisit anggaran pemerintah (government budget deficit) ditambah dengan surplus neraca perdagangan (balance of trade). dari rumusan persamaan-persamaan di atas dapat dibangun suatu formulasi model makroekonomi yang merupakan identitas dasar makroekonomi (basic macroeconomic identity) yang dirumuskan sebagai berikut (brian snowdon, howard vane and peter wynarczyk, 1995:195): c + i + g + x – m = y = yd – tr + tx = c + s – tr + tx ..........(15) persamaan (15) menunjukkan bahwa besarnya permintaan output yang nilainya sama dengan besarnya output yang ditawaranalisis impor indonesia (imamudin yuliadi) 93 kan yaitu gdp. pengeluaran domestik yang merupakan bagian dari permintaan agregat dari dalam negeri (c + i + g) disebut juga dengan penyerapan domestik (domestic absorbtion) dan diberi simbol a sedangkan x – m merupakan neraca perdagangan (balance of trade). sehingga formulasi permintaan agregat pada persamaan (2.29) dapat dituliskan juga dengan struktur sebagai berikut (brian snowdon, howard vane and peter wynarczyk, 1995:196): y = a + x – m ..........(16) atau y – a = x – m ..........(17) dari ekspresi persamaan (16) dan (17) dapat dijelaskan bahwa neraca pembayaran nilainya akan sama dengan besarnya pendapatan nasional dikurangi dengan besarnya penyerapan domestik. jika saldo perdagangan positif, maka pertumbuhan ekonomi akan positif dengan asumsi absorbsi domestik tetap. gambaran perubahan komponen makroekonomi dan pengaruhnya pada perekonomian dapat dilihat pada gambar 2. perubahan pada komponen absorbsi domestik dan neraca perdagangan akan mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi. kebijakan ekonomi akan menentukan perubahan arah dan besaran makroekonomi baik yang berorientasi ke dalam (inward looking) maupun ke luar (outward looking). metode model penelitian untuk menganalisis pengaruh impor indonesia dirumuskan dalam model pendekatan persamaan simultan (simultaneous equation model) yang mengadopsi model keynesian dengan rumusan sebagai berikut: ct = co + 1yt + 2 c t – 1 + 2 rs + uct .......(18) it = io + 1yt + 2 rp + 3 er + 3 d + uit .....(19) xt = xo + 1 zt + 2 ert + 3 tot + 4 gdpdn + 5 d + 6 der + uxt …(20) zt = mo + 1 xt + 2yt + 3 ert + 4 tot + 5 zt 1 + uzt …….( 21) ert = ero + 1rdnlnt+ 2 shlnt+ 3bop+ 4 cf+ 5cpi+ 6 ms+ 7 d +uet …….(22) shlndt = shlno + 1 rdnln + 2 yt + 3 er + 4 gt + 5 gt 1 + urdt …….(23) mdt = md0 + ψ1 y + ψ2 er + ψ3 rd + ψ4 cpi + ut …….(24) cft = cfo + ν1 rdnln + ν2 y + ν3 er + ν4 d + ucft …….(25) y c, i, g, x, m y = ad ad’ = (c + i + g + x – m)’ 0 y’ ad = (c + i + g + x – m) y e’ e (dornbusch, fischer dan startz, 1998: 196) gambar 2. model keynessian dan keseimbangan makroekonomi jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 89 104 94 bop = x z + cf …….(26) yt = ct + it + gt + (xt – zt) ….…(27) ms = md …… (28) keterangan: c = konsumsi i = investasi g = pengeluaran pemerintah x = ekspor z = impor y = pendapatan nasional rs = tingkat bunga simpanan rp = tingkat bunga pinjaman d = variabel dummy 1 = masa krisis ekonomi, 0 = masa tidak krisis ekonomi der = variabel dummy kebijakan deregulasi 1 setelah kebijakan deregulasi dan 0 sebelum kebijakan deregulasi tot = nilai tukar perdagangan (terms of trade) er = nilai tukar rupiah per satu dollar as shln = stok hutang luar negeri gdpdn = pendapatan dunia total (as, jepang, inggris, perancis dan jerman) rdnln = rasio tingkat bunga domestik terhadap tingkat bunga dunia (libor) cpi = indeks harga konsumen ms = jumlah uang beredar md = permintaan uang cf = aliran modal (capital flow) bop = neraca pembayaran dari persamaan struktural tersebut diketahui bahwa: variable endogennya adalah: c, i, x, z, er, shln, cf, dan md variabel eksogennya adalah: ct – 1, rs , d, der, rdnln, cpi, gdpdn, zt – 1 , g, g t 1 , tot, ms dan rp asumsi-asumsi penelitian mengenai analisis impor indonesia dengan menggunakan model keynessian, maka perlu mempertimbangkan beberapa asumsiasumsi yang melandasinya yaitu bahwa perekonomian indonesia sebagai objek penelitian merupakan perekonomian negara kecil yang terbuka dalam konstelasi perekonomian dunia artinya bahwa perubahan kinerja ekonomi indonesia tidak berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap perekonomian dunia tetapi sebaliknya perubahan kondisi dan situasi ekonomi dunia berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap kinerja perekonomian indonesia. implikasi dari suatu negara kecil dalam konstelasi perekonomian dunia bahwa mobilitas aliran modal tidak ada hambatan baik aliran modal masuk (capital inflow) maupun aliran modal keluar (capital outflow). metode analisis penelitian penelitian tentang analisis impor indonesia merupakan penelitian verifikatif yang bertujuan untuk mengkaji dan menguji teori secara empirik. tahapan yang akan dilalui dalam penelitian verifikatif ini adalah menguji hipotesis untuk menjelaskan hubungan antar variabel makroekonomi guna mendapatkan informasi dan makna dari permasalahan penelitian. berdasarkan hubungan variabelvariabel yang telah dirumuskan dalam hipotesis selanjutnya akan dianalisis pengaruh dan hubungan antara beberapa variabel tersebut berdasarkan data empirik. deskripsi atas fenomena permasalahan penelitian ditunjukkan dari data-data makroekonomi yang dikumpulkan dari sumberanalisis impor indonesia (imamudin yuliadi) 95 sumber data sekunder. obyek penelitian ini adalah perekonomian indonesia secara makro dalam kurun waktu antara 1990 triwulan i – 2004 triwulan ii. teknik pengumpulan data pendekatan dalam penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan analisis secara makro dan data yang digunakan sebagai bahan analisis adalah data sekunder. pengumpulan data dilakukan melalui penelusuran sumbersumber data dan informasi dari lembagalembaga yang kredibel baik nasional maupun internasional. dari data yang telah terkumpul kemudian dilakukan pencatatan dan kategorisasi berdasarkan jenis variabel yang diperlukan. untuk menjamin tingkat akurasi yang tinggi maka perlu dilakukan penelitian ulang dan cross-check terhadap data yang diperoleh baik dari sumber data maupun obyek data yang dicari. jenis dan sumber data jenis data dalam penelitian ini adalah data sekunder yang merupakan data runtut waktu (time series). adapun data yang dikumpulkan bersumber dari badan pusat statistik (bps), asian development bank (adb), international financial statistics (ifs) dan sumber informasi data lain yang kredibel dengan kurun waktu dari tahun 1990 triwulan i – 2004 triwulan ii yang dipakai sebagai bahan analisis statistik kuantitatif sehingga dapat memberikan informasi yang akurat bagi pengambilan keputusan. hasil dan pembahasan permasalahan identifikasi permasalahan identifikasi dalam persamaan simultan merupakan hal yang penting untuk dapat sampai pada proses estimasi parameter dan analisa ekonomi selanjutnya. masalah identifikasi artinya bahwa estimasi parameter persamaan struktural dapat diperoleh dari koefisien reduced form estimated. jika langkah ini dapat diatasi artinya persamaan tersebut dapat diidentifikasi dan jika langkah di atas tidak dapat dilalui artinya bahwa persamaan tersebut tidak dapat diidentifikasi. permasalahan identifikasi dilakukan karena dari suatu himpunan data yang sama dapat diperoleh taksiran koefisien dari fungsi/ model/hipotesis yang berbeda. untuk mengetahui apakah suatu persamaan dalam persamaan simultan dapat diidentifikasi atau tidak dapat diuji dapat ditinjau melalui metode pengujian order condition yang merupakan syarat perlu (necessary condition) dan rank condition yang merupakan syarat cukup (sufficient condition). metode pengujian order condition merupakan prasyarat perlu untuk dapat mengidentifikasi suatu model persamaan simultan. suatu persamaan dikatakan dapat diidentifikasi manakala persamaan tersebut memenuhi ketentuan sebagai berikut: k – k  m – 1 …….(29) dimana: k = jumlah variable yang ditetapkan lebih dahulu (predetermined variable) dalam model k = jumlah predetermined variable dalam persamaan yang diestimasi m = jumlah variable endogen dalam persamaan yang diestimasi ketentuan dalam identifikasi suatu model persamaan adalah: jika k – k > m – 1 disebut overidentified jika k – k = m – 1 disebut just/exact identified jika k – k < m – 1 disebut underidentified jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 89 104 96 dari rumusan model persamaan simultan di atas kemudian dilakukan uji permasalahan identifikasi untuk memenuhi kondisi order dan kondisi rank. hasil uji identifikasi pada persamaan simultan seperti yang telah dirumuskan di atas diperoleh informasi sebagaimana nampak dalam tabel 2. fungsi persamaan dalam suatu model dikatakan dapat diidentifikasi manakala persamaan tersebut memenuhi kondisi overidentified atau just/exact identified. sedangkan persamaan yang kondisinya underidentified tidak dapat diidentifikasi. uji simultanitas dalam sistem persamaan simultan untuk mendeteksi simultanitas antarvariabel dilakukan dengan uji simultanitas yaitu dengan uji hausman dan uji eksogenitas. kondisi simultanitas pada suatu sistem persamaan simultan perlu dilakukan uji simultanitas untuk menentukan apakah terjadi bias simultanitas ataukah tidak. kaidah keputusan dalam uji hausman ini adalah membandingkan antara nilai tstatistik dari residual yang dimasukkan dalam persamaan dengan nilai t-tabel. jika nilai t-statistik > t-tabel berarti ho ditolak dan menunjukkan bahwa dalam modal sistem persamaan simultan mengungkapkan masalah simultan. hasil uji simultanitas pada model penelitian ini dapat dilihat pada tabel 3. dari hasil uji simultanitas dengan uji hausman di atas diketahui bahwa dari delapan persamaan ternyata hanya ada dua persamaan yang menunjukkan gejala tabel 2. uji identifikasi persamaan simultan persamaan struktural k – k m – 1 kondisi order fungsi konsumsi fungsi investasi fungsi ekspor fungsi impor fungsi nilai tukar rp. fungsi aliran modal fungsi stok hutang ln fungsi permintaan uang 10 11 9 11 9 11 10 11 1 2 2 3 3 2 2 2 overidentified overidentified overidentified overidentified overidentified overidentified overidentified overidentified sumber: data sekunder (diolah) tabel 3. uji simultanitas persamaan nilai statistik (residual) probabilitas keterangan c (4.1) -0,385015 0,7018 bias simultanitas i (4.2) 1,919106 ** 0,0606 simultan x (4.3) -0,335183 0,7389 bias simultanitas z (4.4) 0,107810 0,9146 bias simultanitas er (4.5) 0,618726 0,5390 bias simultanitas shln (4.6) 3,984497 * 0,0002 simultan cf (4.7) 1,299617 0,1996 bias simultanitas md (4.8) -0,807853 0,4230 bias simultanitas sumber: data primer (diolah) * signifikan pada α (level of significance) 5% ** signifikan pada α (level of significance) 10% *** signifikan pada α (level of significance) 25% analisis impor indonesia (imamudin yuliadi) 97 simultanitas yaitu persamaan fungsi tingkat investasi (i) dengan persamaan fungsi jumlah total hutang luar negeri pemerintah (shln). sedangkan persamaan lainnya menunjukkan gejala bias simultanitas karena nilai t-statistik residual < t-tabel sesuai dengan prosedur ekonometri bahwa untuk persamaan yang tidak memenuhi ketentuan uji simultanitas dengan metode hausman maka untuk lebih menjelaskan mengenai fenomena simultanitas dalam suatu sistem persamaan di samping melalui uji hausman juga harus melalui uji eksogenitas untuk menentukan apakah suatu variabel dalam suatu persamaan diperlakukan sebagai variabel eksogen atau endogen. keputusan dalam uji eksogenitas ini adalah berdasarkan pada nilai f-statistik yang dibandingkan dengan nilai f-tabel pada derajat kebebasan (degree of freedom) tertentu. hasil uji eksogenitas dalam model persamaan pada penelitian ini dapat dilihat pada tabel 4. dari hasil uji simultanitas dan uji eksogenitas dapat diperoleh informasi bahwa dalam model penelitian ini dapat digunakan metode estimasi tsls. meskipun pada beberapa persamaan menunjukkan adanya gejala simultanitas antarvariabel namun dari sisi teori dan kemudian didukung uji eksogenitas yang menetapkan suatu variabel merupakan variabel endogen maka metode tsls bisa diterapkan sebagai metode estimasi. uji asumsi klasik uji asumsi klasik meliputi uji otokorelasi, uji multikolinearitas dan uji heteroskedastisitas untuk mendapatkan hasil estimasi yang valid yang memenuhi kriteria blue (best linear unbiased estimator). hasil uji asumsi klasik dalam sistem persamaan simultan pada penelitian ini dapat dilihat pada tabel 5 analisa hasil estimasi persamaan struktural ekonomi makro setelah melalui serangkaian uji ekonometri maka proses selanjutnya dalam sistem persamaan simultan adalah melakukan analisa hasil estimasi persamaan struktural. hasil estimasi dari persamaan simultan untuk menganalisis impor indonesia dapat dicermati pada tabel 6. tabel 4. uji eksogenitas persamaan f-statistik probabilitas keterangan c (4.1) 1060,282 0,0000 endogen i (4.2) 150,9420 0,0000 endogen x (4.3) 213,0702 0,0000 endogen z (4.4) 386,1513 0,0000 endogen er (4.5) 82,55377 0,0000 endogen shln (4.6) 80,66235 0,0000 endogen cf (4.7) 10,24400 0,000001 endogen md (4.8) 1292,365 0,0000 endogen sumber: data primer (diolah) jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 89 104 98 tabel 5. uji asumsi klasik otokorelasi multikolinearitas heteroskedastisitas pers. n.r2 χ2-tabel ket. keterangan n.r2 χ2 tabel* ket. c 0,418089 79,0819 lolos gdp – ct – 1 : 0,955764 9,962534 79,0819 lolos i 18,73665 67,5048 lolos tdk ada multikolinearitas 3,135806 67,5048 lolos x 4,018365 67,5048 lolos tdk ada multikolinearitas 6,757745 67,5048 lolos z 2,583956 67,5048 lolos gdp – x : 0,929645 x – zt – 1 : 0,906374 gdp – zt – 1 : 0,859989 10,70878 67,5048 lolos er 0,471215 67,5048 lolos shln – m1 : 0,817493 21,00453 67,5048 lolos shln 40,93735 67,5048 lolos gdp – g : 0,939378 gdp – gt-1 : 0,925094 g – gt-1 : 0,914266 15,23170 67,5048 lolos cf 1,762389 67,5048 lolos tdk ada multikolinearitas 13,85767 67.5048 lolos md 30,16311 67,5048 lolos tdk ada multikolinearitas 13,82126 31,4104 lolos sumber: data primer (diolah) tabel 6. analisis estimasi persamaan simultan regresi persamaan fungsi konsumsi variabel koefisien t-statistik prob. t-tabel α = 5 % r2 adj. f-statistik konstanta -4483,659 -2,206314 0,0317 1,684 0,982632 1050,805 y 0,348208 6,544135 0,0000 ct-1 0,529585 7,810831 0,0000 rs 88,79480 1,496858 0,1404 regresi persamaan fungsi investasi variabel koefisien t-statistik prob. t-tabel α = 5 % r2 adj. f-statistik konstanta 11627,44 4,378999 0,0001 1,684 0,922643 163,0325 y 0,254887 14,45411 0,0000 rk -393,8958 -4,363064 0,0001 er -0,852291 -7,292793 0,0000 dummy 3510,935 3,997778 0,0002 regresi persamaan fungsi ekspor variabel koefisien t-statistik prob. t-tabel α = 5 % r2 adj. f-statistik konstanta 2377,514 1,450527 0,1532 1,684 0,954919 194,1995 z 0,775314 21,32797 0,0000 gdpdn 0,065289 0,390191 0,6981 tot 322,5334 0,259758 0,7961 er 0,683035 5,230851 0,0000 der -109,0775 -0,542164 0,5901 dummy -1526,776 -2,089169 0,0418 regresi persamaan fungsi impor variabel koefisien t-statistik prob. t-tabel α = 5 % r2 adj. f-statistik konstanta -2625,055 -2,757043 0,0080 1,684 0,967361 409,9805 x 0,757182 8,368562 0,0000 zt-1 0,425990 6,092787 0,0000 tot 1060,247 0,918045 0,3628 er -0,694 -5,625782 0,0000 analisis impor indonesia (imamudin yuliadi) 99 analisis impor indonesia model persamaan fungsi impor (z) dalam penelitian ini memasukkan variabel ekspor (x), nilai tukar perdagangan (tot), nilai impor periode sebelumnya (zt – 1) dan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dollar as (er) yang didasarkan pada kajian teori perdagangan internasional dan juga kondisi riil perekonomian indonesia. variabel ekspor (x) dimasukkan dalam model penelitian karena pada beberapa jenis komoditas manufaktur seperti industri perakitan (assembling) alatalat produksi dan mesin-mesin ada keterkaitan antara nilai dan volume ekspor dengan impor. sedangkan variabel nilai tukar perdagangan (tot) merupakan faktor riil yang mempengaruhi pola dan arah perdagangan indonesia dengan negara-negara mitra dagang pada beberapa jenis komoditas. kemudian variabel nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dollar as (er) merupakan faktor dominan yang mempengaruhi volume dan arah perdagangan dalam transaksi perdagangan internasional. sedangkan variabel nilai impor periode sebelumnya (zt – 1) untuk melihat pengaruh volume dan arah perdagangan yang sudah dijalin selama ini berdasarkan perjanjian perdagangan yang telah disepakati sebelumnya. temuan empiris dalam penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa nilai koefisien regresi variabel ekspor (x) sebesar 0,757182 dengan nilai t-statistik sebesar 8,368562 > t-tabel sebesar 1,684 pada α (level of significance) 5 % dengan derajat kepercayaan (degree of freedom) n – k – 1. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa perubahan ekspor (x) berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap perubahan impor (z). nilai koefisien regresi variabel ekspor (x) sebesar 8,368562 artinya bahwa kenaikan ekspor (x) sebesar 1 milyar rupiah akan menaikkan impor (z) sebesar 8,368562 milyar regresi persamaan fungsi hutang luar negeri pemerintah variabel koefisien t-statistik prob. t-tabel α = 5 % r2 adj. f-statistik konstanta 33153,16 18,13069 0,0000 1,684 0,759233 45,35348 y 0,083994 1,084459 0,2832 er 0,594222 2,449502 0,0177 rdnln 124,4662 0,451590 0,6534 g 1,537317 1,616188 0,1121 regresi persamaan fungsi aliran modal variabel koefisien t-statistik prob. t-tabel α = 5 % r2 adj. f-statistik konstanta 1478,221 2,110241 0,0397 1,684 0,425101 11,42578 y 0,008693 0,981414 0,3309 er -0,487833 -5,822011 0,0000 rdnln 179,3293 2,011218 0,0495 dummy 160,3363 0,298260 0,7667 regresi persamaan fungsi permintaan uang variabel koefisien t-statistik prob. t-tabel α = 5 % r2 f-statistik konstanta 14233,53 0,686847 0,4952 1,684 0,815555 65,50640 y 0,135087 0,678986 0,5002 er 14,55877 9,375837 0,0000 rs -2346,087 -3,989436 0,0002 cpi 156,8171 1,379953 0,1735 sumber: international financial statistics (ifs) jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 89 104 100 rupiah. temuan empiris ini selaras dengan kondisi riil perekonomian indonesia pada beberapa jenis komoditas impor tergantung pada volume ekspor terutama untuk barangbarang elektronik dan mesin-mesin produksi yang komponennya diimpor dan dirakit (assembling) di dalam negeri kemudian di ekspor. produk-produk hasil proses kimia seperti pupuk dan semen yang sebagian bahan bakunya juga masih diimpor kemudian diproses di dalam negeri kemudian diekspor. hasil temuan empiris ini juga sekaligus menyiratkan mengenai pola perdagangan yang dilakukan pengusaha indonesia bahwa mereka melakukan transaksi dengan pengusaha negara lain berdasarkan job order dengan memanfaatkan tenaga kerja yang murah untuk merebut pangsa pasar internasional. keadaan ini menggambarkan bahwa dengan tingginya kandungan impor untuk produk-produk ekspor akan mengurangi nilai tambah produk-produk ekspor nasional. sedangkan nilai koefisien regresi variabel nilai tukar perdagangan (tot) sebesar 1060,247 dengan nilai t-statistik sebesar 0,918045 < t-tabel sebesar 1,684 pada α (level of significance) 5% dengan derajat kepercayaan (degree of freedom) n–k–1. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa perubahan nilai tukar perdagangan (tot) tidak berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap perubahan impor. sedangkan koefisien regresi variabel nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dollar as (er) sebesar –0,694 dengan nilai t-statistik sebesar –5,625782 > ttabel pada α (level of significance) 5 % dengan derajat kepercayaan (degree of freedom) n – k – 1. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa perubahan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dollar as (er) berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap perubahan impor (z). nilai koefisien regresi variabel nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dollar as (er) sebesar –5,625782 artinya bahwa kenaikan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dollar as (er) sebesar 1 rupiah/$ as akan menurunkan impor sebesar 5,625782 milyar rupiah. temuan empiris ini selaras dengan teori perdagangan internasional yang menjelaskan adanya korelasi yang negatif antara besarnya nilai tukar mata uang domestik terhadap dollar as dengan nilai impor. semakin tinggi nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dollar as (er) akan menaikkan harga produk impor negara mitra dagang sehingga menurunkan daya saing produk-produk impor dan akhirnya akan menurunkan nilai impor. sementara itu nilai koefisien determinasi yang disesuaikan (r2 adjusted) sebesar 0,967361 artinya bahwa kemampuan variabel independen dalam menjelaskan perubahan nilai variabel dependen sebesar 96,7361 % sedangkan sisanya dipengaruhi oleh faktorfaktor lain di luar model. sedangkan koefisien korelasi secara keseluruhan (fstatistik) besarnya 409,9805 > dari f-tabel sebesar 2,54 dengan α (level of significance) 5 % dengan derajat kepercayaan (degree of freedom) pembilang (k = 4) dan penyebut (n – k – 1 = 53) yang menunjukkan bahwa secara bersama-sama semua variabel independen dalam model mempunyai pengaruh terhadap variabel dependen. kesimpulan kesimpulan dari hasil penelitian tentang analisis impor indonesia sebagai berikut: 1. perkembangan nilai impor indonesia terkait dengan perkembangan industrialisasi di indonesia dimana sebagian komponen bahan baku dan bahan penolong masih harus diimpor. 2. variabel ekspor (x) berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap perubahan impor (z). nilai koefisien regresi variabel ekspor (x) sebesar 8,368562 artinya bahwa kenaikan ekspor (x) sebesar 1 milyar analisis impor indonesia (imamudin yuliadi) 101 rupiah akan menaikkan impor (z) sebesar 8,368562 milyar rupiah. 3. nilai koefisien variabel nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dollar as (er) sebesar –5,625782 artinya bahwa kenaikan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dollar as (er) sebesar 1 rupiah/$ as akan menurunkan impor sebesar 5,625782 milyar rupiah. temuan empiris ini selaras dengan teori perdagangan internasional yang menjelaskan adanya korelasi yang negatif antara besarnya nilai tukar mata uang domestik terhadap dollar as dengan nilai impor. semakin tinggi nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dollar as (er) akan menaikkan harga produk impor negara mitra dagang sehingga menurunkan daya saing produk-produk impor dan akhirnya akan menurunkan nilai impor. saran dari hasil penelitian bahwa strategi pengendalian nilai impor harus diorientasikan bagi pengembangan industri untuk mendorong ekspor dan meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi sehingga dalam jangka panjang tidak mengganggu neraca pembayaran indonesia. disamping itu perlu terus digalakkan gerakkan cinta produk dalam negeri untuk mengurangi 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scarth, william m. 1988. macroeconomics an introduction to advanced methods. harcout brace snowdon, brian, howard vane, peter wyanrczyk. 1994. a modern guide to macroecojurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 9, nomor 1, april 2008: 89 104 104 nomics an introduction to competing schools of thought. edward elgar publishing limited soewardi, herman. 2000. roda berputar dunia bergulir kognisi baru tentang timbultenggelamnya sivilisasi. edisi i. bandung: bakti mandiri. stephen j. turnovsky. 1981. macroeconomic analysis and stabilization policy. usa: cambridge university press. tambunan, tulus. 2001. perdagangan internasional dan neraca pembayaran. jakarta: lp3es. thomas, r leighton. 1985. introductory econometrics theory and application. first edition. singapore: british library catalog in publishing data. yuliadi, imamudin. 2001. analisis makroekonomi indonesia pendekatan is-lm. tesis. yogyakarta: universitas gadjah mada. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 1, april 2017, hlm. 52-61 doi: 10.18196/jesp.18.1.3952 analisis strategi dan program peningkatan daya saing pada industri unggulan provinsi jawa tengah dalam menghadapi masyarakat ekonomi asean (mea) puspita tri jayanti, masyhudi muqorobin program studi ilmu ekonomi dan studi pembangunan fakultas ekonomi dan bisnis universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta email korespondensi: puspitatj26@gmail.com naskah diterima: januari 2017; disetujui: april 2017 abstract: the establishment of asean economic community (aec), forces industries in central java province shall retain their high level of competitiveness. this study aims to know what kind of industry that can be categorized as leading industry through slq, dlq, combination of the methods and the shift share analysis. in addition, this study investigates on how much the level of competitiveness that recently retained by every leading industry in central java province, either national or asean level through rca. finally, this study helps to formulate strategy to increase and intensify the competitiveness due to the aec through swot balanced scorecard analysis. the result showed that, there are industry in cental java province which is included as a leading industy, such as beverage, some agriculture products, manufacturing industries, printing and reproduction of recorded media. there are some industries that are competitive either national or asean level such as apparel, timber, wood, printing and reproduction of recorded media. while textile and furniture have a level of competitiveness at national level only. the strategy to improve industrial competitiveness in the face of aec namely so strategy to expand the non traditional’s export; st strategy to improve the quality of product; wo strategy by enhancing the quality of skilled human resources to meet market demand; wt stategy by providing incentivies to industries that are able to perform and increase proportion of raw materials. firm equity, organizational capital and human capital are ways to do the program of improving industrial competitiveness to welcome aec. keywords: competitiveness, leading industry, swot balanced scorecard analysis jel classification: d41, l10, b40 abstrak: berdirinya komunitas ekonomi asean (mea), mengaharuskan setiap jenis industri di provinsi jawa tengah memiliki dan mempertahankan tingkat daya saing yang tinggi. studi ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui jenis industri yang dapat dikategorikan dalam industri unggulan melalui slq, dlq, kombinasi keduanya serta analisis shift share untuk keunggulan kompetitif. studi ini juga bertujuan untuk mengetahui seberapa besar tingkat daya saing yang baru-baru ini dipertahankan oleh setiap industri terkemuka di propinsi jawa tengah, baik tingkat nasional maupun asean melalui rca. terakhir, studi ini bertujuan untuk mencari strategi yang sesuai untuk meningkatkan dan mengintensifkan daya saing karena mea melalui analisis swot balanced scorecard. hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa ada industri di propinsi jawa tengah yang termasuk sebagai industi unggulan. diantaranya adalah, minuman, pengolahan tembakau, tekstil, pakaian jadi, kayu, kayu, percetakan dan reproduksi media rekaman, furnitur, dan industri manufaktur lainnya. jenis industri yang memiliki keunggulan baik di tingkat nasional maupun asean adalah pakaian jadi, kayu, serta percetakan dan reproduksi media rekaman. sementara tekstil dan furnitur hanya memiliki tingkat daya saing di tingkat nasional saja. strategi untuk meningkatkan daya saing industri dalam menghadapi mea yaitu strategi so untuk memperluas ekspor non tradisional; strategi st untuk meningkatkan kualitas produk; strategi wo dengan meningkatkan kualitas sumber daya manusia yang terampil guna memenuhi permintaan pasar; strategi wt untuk memberikan insentif kepada industri yang mampu melakukan dan meningkatkan proporsi bahan baku. ekuitas perusahaan, modal organisasi dan sumber daya manusia adalah strategi untuk melakukan program peningkatan daya saing industri dalam menghadapi asean economic community kata kunci: daya saing, industri unggulan, analisis swot balanced scorecard klasifikasi jel: d41, l10, b40 mailto:puspitatj26@gmail.com analisis strategi dan program peningkatan daya … (puspita tri jayanti, masyhudi muqorobin) 53 pendahuluan di era globalisasi saat ini, tingkat daya saing menjadi tolak ukur yang wajib dimiliki dalam mewujudkan persaingan pasar bebas baik dalam kegiatan maupun perdagangan ekonomi dunia yang menjadi pokok dari kekuatan pasar. perkembangan pada tingkat daya saing baik dalam skala nasional maupun internasional tidak akan terlepas dari daya saing di tingkat regional. deklarasi asean concord ii diselenggarakan pada tahun 2003. para petinggi asean menyepakati pembentukan masyarakat asean 2020 yang mengandung tiga pilar, yakni masyarakat politik dan keamanan asean, masyarakat sosial dan budaya asean, serta masyarakat ekonomi asean. namun di tahun 2007, para petinggi asean sepakat untuk melakukan percepatan realisasi pilar yang ketiga yaitu masyarakat ekonomi asean (mea) pada tahun 2015. dimana para petinggi asean sepakat jika proses integrasi ekonomi regional dipercepat melalui cetak biru (blue print) masyarakat ekonomi asean di tahun 2007 dengan begitu, program mea pada tahun 2015 dapat terlaksana. pada tahun 2014, indonesia menduduki peringkat 34 dan turun menjadi peringkat 37 pada tahun 2015. terdapat kesenjangan dalam daya saing yang cukup lebar antara negaranegara kawasan asean lain seperti singapura yeng menduduki peringkat dua, malaysia pada peringkat 18 serta thailand pada peringkat 37. peringkat daya saing tersebut diukur dengan menggunakan beberapa indikator yang telah ditentukan oleh world economic forum yaitu pengelolaan institusi secara tepat, kondisi dan situasi makro, pembangunan infrastruktur, kondisi dan situasi makro, pendidikan atas pelatihan, kesehatan dan pendidikan dasar, efisiensi pasar maupun tenaga kerja, pengembangan pasar uang, skala pasar, lingkungan bisnis dan inovasi, serta kesiapan teknologi. maka dibutuhkan penelitian yang bersifat sektoral pada setor prioritas mea seperti industri. pada tahun 2013 daya saing indonesia berada pada peringkat empat. peringkat tersebut dapat berimplikasi pada rendahnya tingkat daya saing produk industri dalam negeri yang rendah, sedangkan produk industri negara seperti singapura, malaysia, dan thailand yang memegang peringkat tiga besar dalam tingkat daya saing industri. tiga negara tersebut dapat dengan mudah mengambil alih pasar domestik. rendahnya tingkat daya saing indonesia dapat dilihat dari rendahnya peringkat ekspor manufaktur per kapita dimana indonesia menempati peringkat ke-tujuh, begitu juga dengan sumbangan ekspor manufaktur terhadap total ekspor yang menduduki peringkat yang sama. hal ini yang memperkuat pernyatan bahwa tingkat daya saing di indonesia masih rendah di negara asean. daya saing di tingkat nasional tidak lepas dari pengaruh daya saing tingkat regional. peringkat pertama daya saing provinsi di indonesia diduduki oleh dki jakarta dengan skor 3,3580, sedangkan jawa tengah menduduki peringkat ke empat di tahun 2014 naik satu tingkat dari tahun 2013. menurut alisjahbana (2014), koridor ekonomi yang mempunyai potensi industri nasional adalah koridor pulau jawa. hal tersebut dipengaruhi oleh jumlah industri yang berkembang di koridor tersebut. pada tahun 2012-2014, provinsi jawa tengah memiliki net ekspor terendah kedua setelah dki jakarta, hal ini disebabkan karena jumlah ekspor di jawa tengah lebih sedikit dibandingkan dengan jumlah impor yang berimplikasi pada defisit neraca perdagangan yang besar di jawa tengah. dengan rendahnya tingkat daya saing tersebut, perlu untuk melakukan kajian ulang mengingat telah berlangsungnya program mea. 54 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 1, april 2017: 52-61 jika tidak dilakukan evaluasi ataupun kajian mengenai tingkat daya saing di provinsi jawa tengah maka peluang keuntungan yang dapat diperoleh oleh produsen, konsumen, ataupun perekonomian secara keseluruhan maka tidak akan bisa dirasakan manfaatnya secara optimal. dengan demikian peningkatan daya saing industri di provinsi jawa tengah dinilai sebagai hal yang penting mengingat program mea telah berlangsung. peningkatan daya saing pada sektor industri pengolahan yang merupakan salah satu penghasil ekspor haruslah diupayakan perkembangannya, dengan cara menjadikan sektor industri pengolahan di provinsi jawa tengah menjadi prioritas perdagangan pada pasar tunggal mea. pemerintah provinsi jawa tengah akan bertekad dalam mengembangkan kemampuan ekspornya. sehubungan dengan uraian di atas maka peneliti mengajukan penelitian menegenai “analisis strategi dan program peningkatan daya saing pada industri unggulan provinsi jawa tengah dalam menghadapi masyarakat ekonomi asean (mea)”. berdasarkan permasalahan yang terjadi, maka penelitian ini dirumuskan dalam bentuk pertanyaan sebagai berikut: 1. apa jenis industri yang menjadi produk unggulan di provinsi jawa tengah? 2. apa jenis industri yang memiliki keunggulan kompetitif di provinsi jawa tengah? 3. bagaimana kondisi daya saing untuk industri unggulan di provinsi jawa tengah dalam rangka menghadapi mea? 4. apa strategi yang digunakan untuk meningkatkan daya saing industri unggulan di provinsi jawa tengah dalam rangka menghadapi mea? 5. apa program strategis yang akan dibuat dalam rangka meningkatkan daya saing industri unggulan di provinsi jawa tengah dalam menghadapi mea? metode penelitian analisis static location quotient (slq) menurut warpani (1980), analisis static location quotient (slq) merupakan analisis permulaan untuk mengetahui keunggulan suatu daerah dalam sektor kegiatan tertentu. secara matematis dapat dirumuskan pengukuran untuk nilai slq yaitu: slq = keterangan: slq = nilai slq yxj = nilai output industri x di provinsi jawa tengah yj = nilai jumlah output industri di provinsi jawa tengah yxi = nilai output industri x di indonesia yi = nilai jumlah output industri di indonesia terdapat tiga kemungkinan nilai dari koefisien slq yang berkisar antara nol sampai dengan positif tak terhingga yaitu: a. nilai dari koefisien slq kurang dari satu menunjukkan bahwa sektor tersebut tidak mempunyai keunggulan komparatif. b. nilai dari koefisien slq sama dengan satu menjelaskan bahwa sektor tersebut mempunyai keunggulan relatif yang sama dengan rata-rata semua wilayah. c. nilai koefisien slq yang nilainya lebih besar dari satu menunjukkan bahwa sektor tersebut memiliki keunggulan komparatif yang nilainya lebih tinggi dari rata-rata wilayahnya. analisis dynamic location quotient (dlq) analisis dynamic location quotient (dlq) mampu memberikan solusi pada kelemahan yang terjadi pada analisis slq dengan cara, membandingkan laju pertumbuhan suatu sektor provinsi dengan laju pertumbuhan sektor tersebut di level yang lebih tinggi lagi yakni analisis strategi dan program peningkatan daya … (puspita tri jayanti, masyhudi muqorobin) 55 nasional. secara matematis, dapat dirumuskan alat untuk menghitung nilai dlq dengan rumus sebagai berikut: dlqxj = t = dengan g (g) = -1 keterangan: dlqxj : indeks potensi pada industri x untuk provinsi jawa tengah gxj : pertumbuhan nilai keluaran (output) industri x untuk provinsi jawa tengah gj : jumlah rata-rata pertumbuhan nilai keluaran (output) untuk seluruh industri provinsi jawa tengah gxi : pertumbuhan nilai keluaran (output) industri x di indonesia gi : jumlah rata-rata pertumbuhan nilai keluaran (output) untuk seluruh industri di indonesia t : selisih antara tahun akhir 2014 dan tahun awal 2010 yt : nilai keluaran (output) untuk tahun 2014 y0 : nilai keluaran (output) pada tahun 2010 ippixj : indeks potensi pengembangan industri x untuk provinsi jawa tengah ippixi : indeks potensi pengembangan industri x untuk indonesia terdapat tiga kemungkinan nilai dari koefisien dlq yang dapat diartikan yaitu; apabila koefisien dlq lebih dari satu, artinya potensi pertumbuhan industri x di provinsi jawa tengah lebih maju jika dibandingkan dengan industri x di indonesia. namun, apabila koefisien dlq kurang dari satu, maka potensi pertumbuhan untuk industri x di provinsi jawa tengah kurang maju jika dibandingkan dengan industri x di indonesia. analisis gabungan slq dan dlq dari penjelasan mengenai analisis slq dan dlq kemudian peneliti dapat mengidentifikasi industri unggulan di provinsi jawa tengah. gabungan koefisien slq dan dlq akan menjadi pedoman untuk menentukan apakah suatu industri termasuk ke dalam kriteria unggulan, prospektif, andalan, maupun tertinggal. . untuk menentukan kriteria unggulan digunakan matriks sebagai berikut: slq dlq slq > 1 slq < 1 dlq > 1 industri unggulan industri andalan dlq < 1 industri prospektif industri tertinggal analisis shift share analisis shift share adalah analisis yang digunakan untuk mengetahui sektor ekonomi yang termasuk ke dalam bagian dari sektor yang mempunyai keunggulan kompetitif atau dengan kata lain, sektor yang mampu berkompetisi dengan sektor sejenis di wilayah lain. analisis ini bertujuan untuk menentukan kinerja maupun produktifitas pada ekonomi regional dengan membandingkan ke level yang lebih tinggi. nilai keunggulan kompetitif dapat diukur dengan menggunakan rumus sebagai berikut: kxj = yxj ( rxj rxi ) dengan rxj = { } x 100 rxi = { } x 100 keterangan : cxj : nilai keunggulan kompetitif yxj : nilai keluaran (output) industri x di provinsi jawa tengah tahun 2014 y*xj : nilai keluaran (output) industri x di provinsi jawa tengah tahun 2010 yxi : nilai keluaran (output) industri x d indonesia tahun 2014 56 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 1, april 2017: 52-61 y*xi : nilai keluaran (output) industri x di indonesia tahun 2010 rij : perkembangan industri x di provinsi jawa tengah dari tahun 2010 –2014 rx i : perkembangan industri x di indonesia dari tahun 2010 2014 terdapat dua ketentuan pada penilaian keunggulan kompetitif yaitu; (1) apabila nilai cxj menunjukkan angka positif, artinya terdapat keunggulan kompetitif pada komoditas tersebut; (2) apabila nilai cxj menunjukkan angka negatif yang artinya tidak terdapat keunggulan kompetitif pada komidtas tersebut. analisis rca menurut tambunan (2001), metode rca merupakan metode untuk mengetahui komoditas apa yang mempunyai keunggulan atau yang memiliki tingkat daya saing ekspor di suatu daerah terhadap dunia. nilai rca dapat diukur menggunakan rumus : rca = dimana: rca : nilai rca xxj : nilai ekspor untuk industri x di negara j xj : nilai total ekspor untuk negara j xxi : nilai ekspor untuk industri x dunia xi : nilai total ekspor dunia nilai rca berkisar dari nol sampai dengan positif tak terhingga. apabila nilai rca lebih dari satu, artinya, terdapat daya saing pada komoditas. namun, jika nilai rca kurang dari satu, artinya, tidak terdapat daya saing pada komoditas tersebut. semakin besar indeks rca, maka akan semakin tangguh. analisis swot balanced scorecard menurut rangkuti (2011), analisis ini memuat tentang isu strategis, penyusunan formulasi strategi, tema strategi serta pemetaan strategi, serta program strategis. langkah pertama yang dilakukan yaitu identifikasi formula strategi agar dapat menjadi tema strategis. langkah selanjutnya, mengelompokkan strategi tersebut ke dalam isu strategis yang sudah dilakukukan dalam kegiatan analisis swot. hasil pengelompokkan isu tersebut, akan terbentuk tema strategis. dalam menentukan tema strategis, harus berpedoman pada visi dan misi dengan metode brainstorming. selanjutnya menentukan sasaran strategis dan program strategisnya. dalam menentukan tema strategis yang akan menjadi pedoman untuk tahun yang akan datang, dibutuhkan analisis swot yang komprehensif yaitu dengan cara menentukan faktor-faktor kekuatan dan kelemahan yang bersifat internal, dan juga peluang serta ancaman yang bersifat eksternal. dalam menyusun formula strategis pada analisis swot yaitu dengan cara menggabungkan berbagai macam indikator yang terdapat dalam kekuatan, kelemahan, peluang, maupun ancaman. setelah itu dapat dirumuskan progzam strategisnya. hasil dan pembahasan hasil analisis slq terdapat sembilan jenis industri yang memiliki keunggulan komparatif di antaranya adalah industri minuman, industri pengolahan tembakau, industri tekstil, industri pakaian jadi, industri kayu, barang dari kayu dan gabus, industri pencetakan dan reproduksi media rekaman, industri farmasi, produk obat kimia, dan obat tradisional, industri furnitur dan industri lainnya. sembilan jenis industri tersebut memiiki nilai slq >1. dengan keunggulan komparatif yang dimiliki kesembilan jenis industri tersebut, maka jenis industri tersebut dapat di ekspor ke luar wilayah serta mampu memenuhi kebutuhan yang ada di provinsi jawa tengah. analisis strategi dan program peningkatan daya … (puspita tri jayanti, masyhudi muqorobin) 57 hasil analisis dlq terdapat 23 sektor industri di provinsi jawa tengah yang laju pertumbuhannya lebih cepat dibandingkan pada tingkat nasional yakni, industri makanan, industri minuman, industri pengolahan tembakau, industri tekstil, industri pakaian jadi, industri kayu, barang dari kayu dan gabus, industri kulit, barang dari kulit dan alas kaki, , industri kertas dan barang dari kertas , industri pencetakan dan reproduksi media rekaman, industri produk dari batu bara dan pengilangan minyak bumi, industri farmasi, produk obat kimia, dan obat tradisional, industri karet, barang dari karet dan plastik, industri barang galian bukan logam, industri logam dasar, industri barang logam, bukan mesin dan peralatannya, industri komputer, barang elektronik dan optik, industri peralatan listrik, industri mesin dan perlengkapan ytdl, industri kendaraan bermotor, trailer dan semi trailer, industri alat angkutan lainnya, industri furnitur dan industri pengolahan lainnya, serta reparasi dan pemasangan mesin dan peralatan. hasil analisis gabungan slq dan dlq terdapat delapan industri unggulan di provinsi jawa tengah yang memiliki nilai slq>1 dan dlq>1 yakni industri industri minuman, industri pengolahan tembakau, industri tekstil, industri pakaian jadi, industri kayu, barang dari kayu, dan gabus, industri pencetakan dan reproduksi media rekaman, industri furnitur, industri pengolahan lainnya. slq dlq slq>1 slq<1 dlq>1 industri unggulan 1. industri minuman 2. industri pengolahan tembakau 3. industri tekstil 4. industri pakaian jadi 5. industri kayu, barang dari kayu, dan gabus 6. industri pencetakan dan reproduksi media rekaman 7. industri furnitur 8. industri pengolahan lainnya industri andalan 1. industri makanan 2. industri kulit, barang dari kulit, dan alas kaki 3. industri kertas dan barang dari kertas 4. industri produk dari batu bara dan pengilangan minyak bumi 5. industri bahan kimia dan barang dari bahan kimia 6. industri karet, barang dari karet dan plastik 7. industri barang galian bukan logam 8. industri logam dasar 9. industri barang logam, bukan mesin dan peralatannya 10. industri komputer, barang elektronik, dan optik 11. industri peralatan listrik 12. industri mesin dan perlengkapan ytdl 13. industri kendaraan bermotor, trailer, dan semi trailer 14. industri alat angkutan lainnya 15. reparasi dan pemasangan mesin dan peralatan dlq<1 industri prospektif 1. industri farmasi, produk obat kimia dan obat tradisional industri terbelakang 58 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 1, april 2017: 52-61 hasil analisis shift share terdapat empat belas jenis industri di provinsi jawa tengah yang memiliki keunggulan kompetitif. jenis industri tersebut diantaranya adalah, industri minuman, industri pengolahan tembakau, industri pakaian jadi, industri kulit, barang dari kulit dan alas kaki, industri kayu, barang dari kayu, dan gabus (tidak termasuk furnitur) dan barang anyaman dari bambu, rotan dan sejenisnya, industri kertas dan barang dari kertas, industri produk dari batu bara dan pengilangan minyak bumi , industri bahan kimia dan barang dari bahan kimia, industri farmasi, produk obat kimia dan obat tradisional, industri karet dan plastik, industri komputer, barang elektronik dan optik, industri peralatan listrik, industri pengolahan lainnya, reparasi dan pemasangan mesin dan peralatan. hasil analisis rca, terdapat lima jenis industri di provinsi jawa tengah yang memiliki potensi daya saing di tingkat nasional yakni industri tekstil, industri pakaian jadi, industri kayu, dan industri pencetakan dan reproduksi media rekaman, serta industri furnitur. terdapat tiga jenis industri unggulan di provinsi jawa tengah yang memiliki potensi daya saing yang tinggi di tingkat asean. jenis industri tersebut diantaranya adalah industri pakaian jadi, industri kayu, serta industri pencetakan dan reproduksi media rekaman. hasil analisis swot balanced scorecard strategi peningkatan daya saing industri unggulan dalam menghadapi mea adalah sebagai berikut: so strategy : memperluas pangsa ekspor yang bersifat non tradisional st strategy : meningkatkan kualitas produk. wo strategy: meningkatkan kualitas sumber daya manusia yang terampil dan dapat memenuhi permintaan pasar. wt strategy:memberikan insentif kepada industri-industri yang mampu melakukan peningkatan proporsi pada bahan baku. sasaran strategik inisiatif strategik program strategik shareholders value s1 pertumbuhan hasil keuangan s2 pertumbuhan pendapatan   firm equity f1 meningkatnya penggunaan  peningkatan kualitas dan menekan harga energi agar  program pengembang industri analisis strategi dan program peningkatan daya … (puspita tri jayanti, masyhudi muqorobin) 59 sasaran strategik inisiatif strategik program strategik energi pada industri yang efisien f2 meningkatnya jumlah investor yang melakukan relokasi pada industri ke provinsi jawa tengah f3 produktivitas produk industri tidak terlalu tinggi  meningkatkan jumlah tenaga kerja yang terampil sesuai dengan bidang industri  teknologi non tradisional  program fasilitasi dan standarisasi untuk industri  program akses produk bahan baku di tingkat regional dan nasional  program pengembangan energi baru organizational capital o1 penggunaan teknologi o2 regulasi yang pro bisnis  peningkatan pembelian alatalat maupun mesin-mesin industri yang sesuai dengan bidang industri  membuat sistem regulasi yang pro bisnis  program peningkatan pelayanan data dan informasi mengenai industri  program pengenalan teknologi tepat guna  program peningkatan sarana dan prasarana  program peningkatan teknologi yang human capital h1 meningkatnya produktivitas tenaga kerja  meningkatkan revenue tenaga kerja  program pendidikan formal dan non formal  program pembinaan lingkungan sosial dan pemberdayaan masyarakat  program pengembangan sumber daya manusia  program peningkatan kualitas hidup dan perlindungan terhadap perempuan dan anak  program kegiatan pendidikan kemasyarakatan program peningkatan daya saing industri unggulan dalam menghadapi mea adalah sebagai berikut: firm equity: program pengembang industri, program fasilitasi dan standarisasi untuk industri, program akses produk bahan baku di tingkat regional dan nasional, program pengembangan energi baru. organizational capital: program peningkatan pelayanan data dan informasi mengenai industri, program pengenalan teknologi tepat guna, program peningkatan sarana dan prasarana, program peningkatan teknologi yang ramah lingkungan. human capital: program pendidikan formal dan non formalprogram pembinaan lingkungan sosial dan pemberdayaan masyarakat, program pengembangan sumber daya manusia, program peningkatan kualitas hidup dan perlindungan terhadap perempuan dan anak program kegiatan pendidikan kemasyarakatan. 60 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 1, april 2017: 52-61 daftar pustaka alisjahbana, armida s. 2014. arah kebijakan dan strategi percepatan pengembangan kawasan timur indonesia. manado: kementerian perencanaan pembangunan nasional/ badan perencanaan pembangunan nasional. badan pusat statistik provinsi banten. 2015. provinsi banten dalam angka 2015. 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(20 oktober 2016). badan pusat statistik republik indonesia. 20102016. buletin statistik perdagangan luar negeri 2010. jakarta: badan pusat statistik republik indonesia. bank indonesia. 2008. profil dan pemetaan daya saing ekonomi daerah kabupaten/kota di indonesia. jakarta: rajawali pers. burmansyah, e. 2014. rezim baru asean: memahami rantai pasokan dan masyarakat ekonomi asean. yogyakarta: pustaka sempu. cahyono, eddy. 2014. peningkatan daya saing ekonomi & peran birokrasi. http://ekonomi.metrotvnews.com/read/2 014/10/01/299017/peningkatandayasaing-ekonomi-peran-birokrasi (17 oktober 2016). dinas perindustrian dan perdagangan provinsi jawa tengah. 2016. rencana strategis (renstra) dinas perindustrian dan perdaganganprovinsi jawa tengah tahun 2013-2018. semarang: dinas perindustrian dan perdagangan provinsi jawa tengah djaafara, rizal a., dkk. 2012. masyarakat ekonomi asean 2015 proses harmonisasi di tengah persaingan. jakarta: bank indonesia. domanski, dkk. 2010. multiplier effects in local and regional development. poland: jagiellonian university fafurida, dkk. 2014. strategi pengembangan daerah growth pole melalui pemanfaatan potensi lokal. semarang: economics & business research festival gupta, s. d. 2015. comparative advantage and competitive advantage: an economics perspective and a synthesis. athens journal of business and economics. irmawati, setyani. 2015. strategi peningkatan daya saing industri unggulan provinsi jawa tengah untuk menghadapi asean economic community (aec) 2015.semarang: universitas negeri semarang. kementerian perindustrian. 2012. laporan kinerja kementerian perindustrian. jakarta: biro perencanaan kuncoro, mudrajad. 2007. metode kuantitatif teori dan aplikasi untuk bisnis dan ekonomi. edisi ketiga. yogyakarta: upp stim ykpn. rangkuti, f. 2016. swot balanced scorecard. jakarta: pt gramedia pustaka utama. analisis strategi dan program peningkatan daya … (puspita tri jayanti, masyhudi muqorobin) 61 salvatore, d. 1997. ekonomi internasional edisi kelima jilid 1. (h. munandar, penerj.) jakata: erlangga. united nations industrial development organization. 2016. competitive industrial performance index. http://www.unido.org/data1/statistics/r esearch/cip.html. (13 oktober 2016). un comtrade database. http://comtrade.un.org/data/ (10 november 2016). world economic forum. 2016. global competitiveness report 2015-2016. http://reports.weforum.org/globalcompetitiveness-report-2015-2016/ economies/. (2 oktober 2016). world scientific publishing. 2014. competitiveness indonesia provinces. singapore: lee kuan yew school of public policy. http://www.unido.org/data1/statistics/research/cip.html http://www.unido.org/data1/statistics/research/cip.html http://comtrade.un.org/data/ jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 24 nomor 1, april 2023 article type: research paper fix effect sur to analyze economic growth in developed and developing countries muhamad liswansyah pratama*, rahma fitriani, and suci astutik abstract: this study aims to identify the relationship between population density, inflation, and unemployment rates on the human development index, gnp, exportimport, and urbanization in the developed and developing countries category using the fix effect seemingly unrelated regression (fe sur) with a dummy variable as the slope component. this research necessitates the development of the seemingly unrelated regression model, specifically the panel seemingly unrelated regression (panel sur) model with a dummy variable as the slope component, due to the dynamic nature of the data and the fact that the same set of predictor variables explains the five response variables. the panel, the seemingly unrelated regression model with dummy variables, can accommodate research objectives where the sur model can explain the influence between variables, differences in characteristics between countries can be explained by fixed effect models, and differences in the effect of population density, inflation, and unemployment rates on the human development index, gnp, exports imports and urbanization in the categories of developed and developing countries can be explained by slope dummy variables. the results showed that 98.46% of the diversity of response variables (human development index, gnp, exports, imports, and urbanization) could be explained by predictor variables (population density, inflation, and unemployment rate), while the other 1.54% was explained by other factors not included in the fixed effect sur model. in addition, the results show that population density has a significant positive relationship with gnp, imports, and exports. however, there is a significant negative relationship between unemployment and gnp. there are large differences in the relationship between the unemployment rate and gnp in developed and developing countries, whereas in developed countries, there is a larger and negative relationship compared to developing countries. keywords: fix effect sur; panel sur; developed and developing country; world economics; economic growth jel classification: a10; b23; c33; f00; g00; o10 introduction to attain economic growth is a goal shared by all countries, but notably by developing countries. a country is considered developed if its economic level is high and evenly dispersed, its standard of living is high, and its technology is advanced. developing countries have an average degree of social welfare and no economic equality (heshmati et al., 2014). the benchmark for economic growth is economic growth and development. every country must pursue economic growth on an annual basis in order to affiliation: department of statistics, faculty of mathematics and science, universitas brawijaya, east java, indonesia *correspondence: liswan2000@gmail.com this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v24i1.17821 citation: pratama , m. l., fitriani, r., & astutik, s. (2023). fix effect sur to analyze economic growth in developed and developing countries. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 24(1), 164-181. article history received: 04 feb 2023 revised: 04 may 2023 accepted: 16 may 2023 https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?user=h8vjb60aaaaj&hl=en&oi=ao https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?hl=en&user=adpadauaaaaj https://statistika.ub.ac.id/ https://statistika.ub.ac.id/ https://statistika.ub.ac.id/ https://statistika.ub.ac.id/ mailto:liswan2000@gmail.com http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp http://dx.doi.org/10.18196/jesp.v24i1.17821 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v24i1.17821&domain=pdf pratama, fitriani, & astutik fix effect sur to analyze economic growth in developed and developing countries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 165 avoid economic crises and maintain a prosperous society. this is still a challenge in emerging countries, which strive for an improved economy through various economic activities and policies. economic growth is a process because it is a stage that every country must experience; therefore, it requires long-term effort and cooperation between the community, government, and other concerned parties. the economic aspect, which includes international commerce and gnp, and the social aspect, which includes the human development index and urbanization, are the two primary lenses to view economic progress (kuncoro, 2006). seemingly unrelated regression (sur) is a form of multivariate regression that can accommodate residual correlations between equations (the structure of the variance between equations) so that each equation in the model seems to be independent or unrelated. however, the equations have relatedness (alaba et al., 2019). to model the link between each predictor variable and each response variable, data from a single point in time are insufficient, due to the dynamic character of the data, in multivariate regression analysis of economic variables. therefore, data is needed regarding variables related to several periods for each research object (panel data) so that the regression model obtained is better at describing the relationship of predictor variables to response variables so that a method that can accommodate these problems is developed, namely multivariate regression analysis on panel data. panel data regression analysis is one of the developments that allows statistical users to analyze cause-and-effect relationships in the combined cross-section and time series data (fitriani et al., 2021). the information obtained through panel data regression analysis becomes more informative because it considers the unit cross-section elements in several periods. panel data regression analysis is a statistical method used to model the relationship of one or more predictor variables to response variables in several observed sectors of a research object over a certain period (baltagi, 2008). over time, more complex statistical analysis methods are needed to allow statistical users to analyze the relationship of several predictor variables to more than one response variable in panel data. therefore, a seemingly unrelated regression panel model was developed, capable of modeling the relationship of one or more predictor variables to more than one observed response variable of a research object over a certain time in panel data. the seemingly unrelated regression panel model is one of the developments of multivariate regression analysis and panel data regression analysis that allows statistical users to analyze cause-and-effect relationships in the combined cross-section and time series data, not just one response variable. the fix effect sur model is a form of the sur panel model which assumes that individuals have different characteristics. through the fix effect seemingly unrelated regression model, the information obtained becomes more informative and complex because in addition to considering elements of unit cross sections in several periods on many response variables at once, the fix effect seemingly unrelated regression model also provides information about individual characteristics. this study aims to develop a sur model in which the data used is panel data, and a dummy variable will be added as a slope component and apply it to model the effect of economic pratama, fitriani, & astutik fix effect sur to analyze economic growth in developed and developing countries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 166 variables (population density, inflation, and unemployment rate) on economic growth indicators (human development index, gnp, imports, exports, and urbanization). this study uses the sur model because the five response variables (human development index, gnp, imports, exports, and urbanization) are explained by the same predictor variables (population density, inflation, and unemployment rate). this study uses panel data because of the dynamic nature of the data so that data at one point in time is insufficient in modeling the effect of predictor variables on response variables. this study uses a fixed effect model because it is assumed that there are differences in characteristics between countries. in addition, the results of research by wafiq and suryanto (2021), wau (2022), and research by a'yun and khasanah (2022) state that the fixed effect model is better at modeling economic variables than the pooled and random effect models. this study uses a dummy variable as a slope component because it aims to determine differences in the effect of predictor variables on response variables in the categories of developed countries and developing countries. so that this research can be beneficial for developing countries in maximizing economic activities in their countries as well as aspects that need to be improved in order to have a high economic level like in developed countries. apart from that, this research can be useful for developed countries to maintain their country's economic level. research method this study aims to develop the seemingly unrelated regression (sur) model where the data used is panel data and added a dummy variable as a slope component and apply it to model the effect of economic variables (population density, inflation, and unemployment rate) on economic growth indicators (human development index, gnp, imports, exports, and urbanization). the data used in this study are data on economic variables (population density, inflation, unemployment rate, human development index, gnp, imports, exports, and urbanization) in 145 countries in the world consisting of 110 developing countries and 35 developed countries in 2010 until 2019 sourced from the world bank and imf websites. this study uses the sur model because the five response variables (human development index, gnp, imports, exports, and urbanization) are explained by the same predictor variables (population density, inflation, and unemployment rate). this study uses panel data because of the data's dynamic nature of the data so data at one point in time is insufficient in modeling the effect of the predictor variable on the response variable. seemingly unrelated regression (sur) the sur model uses m response variables as a function of p predictor variables which can be seen in equation (1) (moon & perron, 2006). 𝑌1𝑖 = 𝛽10 + 𝛽11𝑋1𝑖 + 𝛽12𝑋2𝑖 + ⋯ + 𝛽1𝑝𝑋𝑝𝑖 + 𝛽20(0) + 𝛽21(0) + ⋯ + 𝛽21(0) + ⋯ + 𝛽𝑚𝑝(0) + 𝜀1𝑖 𝑌2𝑖 = 𝛽10(0) + 𝛽11(0) + ⋯ + 𝛽1𝑝(0) + 𝛽20 + 𝛽21𝑋1𝑖 + 𝛽22𝑋2𝑖 + ⋯ + 𝛽2𝑝𝑋𝑝𝑖 + 𝛽𝑚0(0) + 𝛽𝑚1(0) + … + 𝛽𝑚𝑝(0) + 𝜀2𝑖 pratama, fitriani, & astutik fix effect sur to analyze economic growth in developed and developing countries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 167 ⁝ 𝑌𝑚𝑖 = 𝛽10(0) + 𝛽11(0) + ⋯ + 𝛽1𝑝(0) + ⋯ + 𝛽(𝑚−1)𝑝(0) + 𝛽𝑚0 + 𝛽𝑚1𝑋1𝑖 + 𝛽𝑚2𝑋2𝑖 + ⋯ + 𝛽𝑚𝑝𝑋𝑝𝑖 + 𝜀𝑚𝑖 (1) equation (1) can be simplified to equation (2). 𝑌𝑙𝑖 = 𝛽𝑙0 + ∑ 𝛽𝑙𝑗 𝑋𝑗𝑖 𝑝 𝑗=1 + 𝜀𝑙𝑖 ; 𝑖 = 1, 2, … , 𝑛 ; 𝑙 = 1,2, … , m ; j = 1,2, … , 𝑝 (2) where: 𝑌𝑙𝑖 = i-th value of the l-th response variable 𝑋𝑗𝑖 = i-th value of the j-th predictor variable 𝛽𝑙0= intercept the response variable to-l 𝛽𝑙𝑗 = parameter of the jth predictor variable to the l-th response variable 𝜀𝑙𝑖 = i-th value of the random error variable on the l-th response variable n= sample size m= number of response variables p= number of predictor variables the form of the sur equation in the matrix can be seen in equation (3) (pramoedyo et al., 2020). 𝒀𝑚𝑛×1 = 𝑿𝑚𝑛×𝑚(𝑝+1)𝜷𝑚(𝑝+1)×1 + 𝜺𝑚𝑛×1 (3) fix effect seemingly unrelated regression (fe sur) in the fixed effects model, it is assumed that there is a relationship between the characteristics of the object (𝛼𝑚𝑖 ) and the predictor variables for each response variable. the fix effect seemingly unrelated regression model is presented in equation (4) (xu et al., 2018). 𝑌1𝑖𝑡 = 𝛽01𝑖 + 𝛽11𝑋1𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽12𝑋2𝑖𝑡 + ⋯ + 𝛽1𝑝𝑋𝑝𝑖𝑡 + 𝜀1𝑖𝑡 𝑌2𝑖𝑡 = 𝛽02𝑖 + 𝛽21𝑋1𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽22𝑋2𝑖𝑡 + ⋯ + 𝛽2𝑝𝑋𝑝𝑖𝑡 + 𝜀2𝑖𝑡 ⋮ 𝑌𝑚𝑖𝑡 = 𝛽0𝑚𝑖 + 𝛽𝑚1𝑋1𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽𝑚2𝑋2𝑖𝑡 + ⋯ + 𝛽𝑚𝑝 𝑋𝑝𝑖𝑡 + 𝜀𝑚𝑖𝑡 (4) slope dummy fix effect sur the slope dummy fix effect seemingly unrelated regression model is presented in equation (5). 𝑌1𝑖𝑡 = 𝛼10𝑖 + 𝛼112(𝐷2𝑖 × 𝑋1𝑖𝑡 ) + 𝛼113(𝐷3𝑖 × 𝑋1𝑖𝑡 ) + ⋯ + 𝛼11𝑘 (𝐷𝑘𝑖 × 𝑋1𝑖𝑡 ) + 𝛼122(𝐷2𝑖 × 𝑋2𝑖𝑡 ) + 𝛼123(𝐷3𝑖 × 𝑋2𝑖𝑡 ) + ⋯ + 𝛼12𝑘 (𝐷𝑘𝑖 × 𝑋2𝑖𝑡 ) + ⋯ + 𝛼1𝑝2(𝐷2𝑖 × pratama, fitriani, & astutik fix effect sur to analyze economic growth in developed and developing countries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 168 𝑋𝑝𝑖𝑡 ) + 𝛼1𝑝3(𝐷3𝑖 × 𝑋𝑝𝑖𝑡 ) + ⋯ + 𝛼1𝑝𝑘 (𝐷𝑘𝑖 × 𝑋𝑝𝑖𝑡 ) + 𝛽11𝑋1𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽12𝑋2𝑖𝑡 + ⋯ + 𝛽1𝑝𝑋𝑝𝑖𝑡 + 𝜀1𝑖𝑡 𝑌2𝑖𝑡 = 𝛼20𝑖 + 𝛼212(𝐷2𝑖 × 𝑋1𝑖𝑡 ) + 𝛼213(𝐷3𝑖 × 𝑋1𝑖𝑡 ) + ⋯ + 𝛼21𝑘 (𝐷𝑘𝑖 × 𝑋1𝑖𝑡 ) + 𝛼222(𝐷2𝑖 × 𝑋2𝑖𝑡 ) + 𝛼223(𝐷3𝑖 × 𝑋2𝑖𝑡 ) + ⋯ + 𝛼22𝑘 (𝐷𝑘𝑖 × 𝑋2𝑖𝑡 ) + ⋯ + 𝛼2𝑝2(𝐷2𝑖 × 𝑋𝑝𝑖𝑡 ) + 𝛼2𝑝3(𝐷3𝑖 × 𝑋𝑝𝑖𝑡 ) + ⋯ + 𝛼2𝑝𝑘 (𝐷𝑘𝑖 × 𝑋𝑝𝑖𝑡 ) + 𝛽21𝑋1𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽22𝑋2𝑖𝑡 + ⋯ + 𝛽2𝑝𝑋𝑝𝑖𝑡 + 𝜀2𝑖𝑡 ⁝ 𝑌𝑚𝑖𝑡 = 𝛼𝑚0𝑖 + 𝛼𝑚12(𝐷2𝑖 × 𝑋1𝑖𝑡 ) + 𝛼𝑚13(𝐷3𝑖 × 𝑋1𝑖𝑡 ) + ⋯ + 𝛼𝑚1𝑘 (𝐷𝑘𝑖 × 𝑋1𝑖𝑡 ) + 𝛼𝑚22(𝐷2𝑖 × 𝑋2𝑖𝑡 ) + 𝛼𝑚23(𝐷3𝑖 × 𝑋2𝑖𝑡 ) + ⋯ + 𝛼𝑚2𝑘 (𝐷𝑘𝑖 × 𝑋2𝑖𝑡 ) + ⋯ + 𝛼𝑚𝑝2(𝐷2𝑖 × 𝑋𝑝𝑖𝑡 ) + 𝛼𝑚𝑝3(𝐷3𝑖 × 𝑋𝑝𝑖𝑡 ) + ⋯ + 𝛼𝑚𝑝𝑘 (𝐷𝑘𝑖 × 𝑋𝑝𝑖𝑡 ) + 𝛽𝑚1𝑋1𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽𝑚2𝑋2𝑖𝑡 + ⋯ + 𝛽𝑚𝑝𝑋𝑝𝑖𝑡 + 𝜀𝑚𝑖𝑡 (5) sur model assumptions several assumptions must be fulfilled in the seemingly unrelated regression (sur) model, namely the assumption of non-multicollinearity between predictor variables and the correlation of errors between equations. checking non-multicollinearity between predictor variables one of the regression assumptions is that there is no relationship between predictor variables. the hypothesis underlying the non-multicollinearity assumption test is 𝐻0: there is no multicollinearity between predictor variables vs 𝐻1: there is multicollinearity between predictor variables if 𝐻0 is true, then the vif statistic is used in the equation (6) 𝑉𝐼𝐹𝑗 = 1 1−𝑅𝑗 2 (6) where: 𝑉𝐼𝐹𝑗 = vif value of the j-th predictor variable accept 𝐻0 if 𝑉𝐼𝐹𝑗 statistic < 10 (bowerman & o’connel, 1990). testing correlation of errors between equations assumptions the purpose of testing the assumptions of error correlation is to find out whether there is an error correlation between equations, with the hypothesis: 𝐻0 : 𝑠𝑖𝑗 = 0 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑖 ≠ 𝑗; 𝑖 = 1, 2, … , 𝑚; 𝑗 = 1, 2, … , 𝑚 (there is no error correlation between equations) vs 𝐻1: 𝑎𝑡 𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑖𝑗 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑠𝑖𝑗 ≠ 0 (there is an error correlation between equations) pratama, fitriani, & astutik fix effect sur to analyze economic growth in developed and developing countries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 169 if 𝐻0 is true, then the lagrange multiplier test statistic is used in the equation (7). 𝐿𝑀 = 𝑛𝑡 ∑ ∑ 𝑠𝑖𝑗 2𝑖−1 𝑗=1 𝑚 𝑖=1 ~𝜒𝑚(𝑚−1) 2 2 (7) where: 𝑠𝑖𝑗 = correlation of the residuals of the i-th equation and the j-th equation n = sample size t = period of time m = number of equations accept 𝐻0 if lm statistics < 𝜒 𝛼, 𝑚(𝑚−1) 2 2 or 𝑃 (𝐿𝑀 < 𝜒 𝛼, 𝑚(𝑚−1) 2 2 ) > 𝛼 (greene, 2012). parameter estimation of sur model with gls parameters in the sur panel model can be estimated using generalized least square (gls) by minimizing the sum of squared errors where it is assumed that matrix v (ols residual matrix of variance) is known as follows (zellner, 1962; nisak, 2016; biørn, 2004). 𝜀̂′𝜀̂ = (𝑌 − 𝑋�̂�)′𝑉−1(𝑌 − 𝑋�̂�) 𝜀̂′𝜀̂ = (𝑌′ − 𝑋′�̂�′)𝑉−1(𝑌 − 𝑋�̂�) 𝜀̂′𝜀̂ = 𝑌′𝑉 −1𝑌 − 𝑌′𝑉 −1𝑋�̂� − 𝑌𝑉 −1𝑋′�̂�′ + 𝑋�̂�𝑉 −1𝑋′�̂�′ 𝜀̂′𝜀̂ = 𝑌′𝑉 −1𝑌 − 2𝑋′𝑉 −1�̂�′𝑌 + 𝑋�̂�𝑉 −1𝑋′�̂�′ 𝜕(𝜀̂′𝜀̂) 𝜕(�̂�) = 𝜕(𝑌′𝑉−1𝑌 − 2𝑋′𝑉 −1�̂�′𝑌 + 𝑋�̂�𝑉−1𝑋′�̂�′) 𝜕(�̂�) = 0 𝜕(𝜀̂′𝜀̂) 𝜕(�̂�) = −2𝑋′𝑉 −1𝑌 + 2𝑋′𝑉−1𝑋�̂� = 0 −𝑋′𝑉 −1𝑌 + 𝑋′𝑉 −1𝑋�̂� = 0 𝑋′𝑉−1𝑋�̂� = 𝑋′𝑉 −1𝑌 �̂� = (𝑋′𝑉 −1𝑋)−1𝑋′𝑉 −1𝑌 (8) where: y = response variable vector is mn × 1 in size x = predictor variable matrix of size mn × m(p+1) v = error variance matrix of size mn × mn �̂� = parameter estimator vector of size m(p+1) × 1 m = number of response variables n = sample size p = number of predictor variables simultaneous testing the purpose of testing is to find out the relationship between the predictor variables simultaneously with the response with the hypothesis: pratama, fitriani, & astutik fix effect sur to analyze economic growth in developed and developing countries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 170 𝐻0: 𝛽11 = ⋯ = 𝛽1𝑝 = ⋯ = 𝛽2𝑝 = ⋯ = 𝛽𝑚𝑝 = 0 vs 𝐻1: 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒 𝑖𝑠 𝑜𝑛𝑒 𝑜𝑟 𝑚𝑜𝑟𝑒 𝑙𝑗 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒𝛽𝑙𝑗 ≠ 0; 𝑙 = 1,2, … , 𝑚; 𝑗 = 1,2, … , 𝑝 if 𝐻0 is true, then the f test statistic is used in the equation (9). 𝐹 = 𝑀𝑒𝑎𝑛 𝑠𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑟𝑒𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑀𝑒𝑎𝑛 𝑠𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟 ~𝐹𝑚𝑝,𝑚𝑛−𝑚𝑝 (9) accept 𝐻0 if f >𝐹𝑚𝑝,𝑚𝑛−𝑚𝑝 𝛼/2 or 𝑃 (𝐹 < 𝐹𝑚𝑝,𝑚𝑛−𝑚𝑝 𝛼/2 ) > 𝛼 (effendi, et al., 2020). partial testing the purpose of doing partial testing is to find out the relationship of each predictor variable individually to the response with the hypothesis: 𝐻0: 𝛽𝑙𝑗 = 0 vs 𝐻1: 𝛽𝑙𝑗 ≠ 0; 𝑙 = 1,2, … , 𝑚; 𝑗 = 1,2, … , 𝑝 if 𝐻0 is true, then the t-test statistic is used in the equation (10). 𝑡 = �̂�𝑙𝑗 𝑆(�̂�𝑙𝑗) ~ 𝑡𝑚𝑛−𝑚𝑝 ; 𝑙 = 1,2, … , 𝑚; 𝑗 = 1,2, … , 𝑝 (10) where: �̂�𝑙𝑗 = parameter estimator 𝛽𝑙𝑗 𝑆(�̂�𝑙𝑗 ) = standard error of parameter estimator 𝛽𝑙𝑗 accept 𝐻0 if t < 𝑡𝑚𝑛−𝑚𝑝 𝛼/2 or 2𝑃 (𝑡 < 𝑡𝑚𝑝,𝑚𝑛−𝑚𝑝 𝛼/2 ) > 𝛼 (fernandes and solimun, 2019). research procedure the procedure of this research is as follows. 1. checking the relationship between predictor variables (assuming nonmulticollinearity) using vif statistics as in equation (6) 2. estimating the parameters of the fix effect sur model using the general least squares (gls) method in equation (8) 3. checking the correlation of errors between equations assumption using the lagrange multiplier test statistic as in equation (7) 4. testing the relationship of the predictor variables to the response variables of the fix effect sur model simultaneously as in equation (9) and individually as in equation (10) 5. checking the feasibility of the fix effect sur model using the coefficient of determination 6. interpretation of the model obtained pratama, fitriani, & astutik fix effect sur to analyze economic growth in developed and developing countries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 171 result and discussion fix effect sur parameter estimation after analysis, the parameter estimators of the fix effect sur model are obtained as in table 1 table 1 fix effect sur parameter estimation variable parameter estimation p-value variable parameter estimation p-value x1.1 0.001 0.9986 x1d.1 0.005 0.9998 x2.1 0 0.9999 x2d.1 -0.003 0.9996 x3.1 -0.002 0.9993 x3d.1 -0.001 0.9998 x1.2 28.68 <0.0001 x1d.2 12.831 0.4175 x2.2 -0.055 0.8986 x2d.2 -9.768 0.0817 x3.2 -10.358 0.0001 x3d.2 -16.019 <0.0001 x1.3 2.952 <0.0001 x1d.3 11.711 0.4593 x2.3 -0.009 0.9838 x2d.3 3.776 0.501 x3.3 -2.195 0.3941 x3d.3 -4.474 0.2549 x1.4 2.657 0.0001 x1d.4 19.459 0.2188 x2.4 0.002 0.9955 x2d.4 0.471 0.9331 x3.4 -2.019 0.4331 x3d.4 -4.718 0.2299 x1.5 0.103 0.8778 x1d.5 0.169 0.9915 x2.5 -0.009 0.9825 x2d.5 -0.081 0.9884 x3.5 -0.072 0.9778 x3d.5 -0.015 0.9970 based on table 1, the fix effect sur model is obtained as in equation (11). 𝐻𝐷𝐼𝑖𝑡 = 𝛼1𝑖 + 0.005(𝐷2𝑖 × 𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑖𝑡 ) − 0.003(𝐷2𝑖 × 𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡 ) − 0.001(𝐷2𝑖 × 𝑈𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑖𝑡 ) + 0.001𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑖𝑡 + 0𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡 − 0.002𝑈𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑖𝑡 𝐺𝑁𝑃𝑖𝑡 = 𝛼2𝑖 + 12.931(𝐷2𝑖 × 𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑖𝑡 ) − 9.768(𝐷2𝑖 × 𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡 ) − 16.019(𝐷2𝑖 × 𝑈𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑖𝑡 ) + 28.68𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑖𝑡 − 0.055𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡 − 10.358𝑈𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑖𝑡 𝐼𝑚𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑡 = 𝛼3𝑖 + 11.711(𝐷2𝑖 × 𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑖𝑡 ) + 3.776(𝐷2𝑖 × 𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡 ) − 4.474(𝐷2𝑖 × 𝑈𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑖𝑡 ) + 2.952𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑖𝑡 − 0.009𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡 − 2.195𝑈𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑖𝑡 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑡 = 𝛼4𝑖 + 19.459(𝐷2𝑖 × 𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑖𝑡 ) + 0.471(𝐷2𝑖 × 𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡 ) − 4.718(𝐷2𝑖 × 𝑈𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑖𝑡 ) + 2.657𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑖𝑡 + 0.002𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡 − 2.019𝑈𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑖𝑡 pratama, fitriani, & astutik fix effect sur to analyze economic growth in developed and developing countries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 172 𝑈𝑟𝑏𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑧𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡 = 𝛼5𝑖 + 0.169(𝐷2𝑖 × 𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑖𝑡 ) − 0.081(𝐷2𝑖 × 𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡 ) − 0.015(𝐷2𝑖 × 𝑈𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑖𝑡 ) + 0.103𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑖𝑡 − 0.009𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡 − 0.072𝑈𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑖𝑡 (11) checking non-multicollinearity assumption examination of non-multicollinearity assumptions is carried out to determine the relationship between predictor variables whether there is multicollinearity or not. the results of checking the non-multicollinearity assumptions between predictor variables are presented in table 2. table 2 results of checking of non-multicollinearity assumptions the j-th predictor variable 𝑽𝑰𝑭𝒋 population density 1.008598 inflation 1.001373 unemployment rate 1.008285 through table 2, vif statistics are obtained for population density (1.008598), inflation (1.001373), and unemployment rate (1.008285) < 10. therefore, sufficient evidence is obtained to accept 𝐻0 so that it can be concluded that there is no multicollinearity between predictor variables and non-multicollinearity assumption between predictor variables in the fixed effect sur model has been fulfilled. testing correlation of errors between equation assumptions testing the assumption of error correlation between equations is carried out to determine whether the errors between equations in the sur model are correlated. the results of testing the correlation between errors of equation assumption are presented in table 3. table 3 results of testing of correlation of errors between equations assumption in the sur fixed effect model the i-th and j-th equation 𝒓𝒊,𝒋 𝒓𝒊,𝒋 𝟐 first and second equation -0.108 0.012 first and third equation -0.003 <0.001 first and 4th equation -0.018 <0.001 first and 5th equation 0.671 0.450 second and third equation 0.753 0.567 second and 4th equation 0.719 0.517 second and 5th equation 0.026 0.001 third and 4th equation 0.918 0.843 third and 5th equation 0.058 0.003 4th and 5th equation 0.041 0.002 𝑳𝑴 = 𝒏𝒕 ∑ ∑ 𝒓𝒊𝒋 𝟐 𝒊−𝟏 𝒋=𝟏 𝒎 𝒊=𝟏 3472.873 pratama, fitriani, & astutik fix effect sur to analyze economic growth in developed and developing countries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 173 table 3 shows the lm test statistics for the fixed effect sur model (3472.873) > 𝜒0.05,10 2 (3.94) or p-value (0) > α (0.05) are obtained. therefore, sufficient evidence is obtained to reject 𝐻0 so that it can be concluded that there is an error correlation between equations and the assumption of an error correlation between equations in the fixed effect sur model has been fulfilled. f test simultaneous testing using the f test was carried out to determine whether population density, inflation, and unemployment rates simultaneously affect the human development index, gnp, imports, exports, and urbanization in the fixed effect sur model. the analysis results show that the f test statistic for the fixed effect sur model is 92692.37, which is greater than 𝐹755,1093995 (1.96). therefore, it can be decided that 𝐻0 is rejected so that it can be concluded that simultaneously the sur fix effect model is significant or at least there is one predictor variable (population density, inflation or unemployment rate) that has a significant relationship to the response variable (human development index, gnp, import, export or urbanization). t test tests using the t test were carried out to determine whether individual population density, inflation, and unemployment rates are significantly related to the human development index, gnp, imports, exports, and urbanization in the fixed sur effect model. several variables have a significant relationship through table 1: population density to gnp, unemployment rate to gnp, differences in the effect of the unemployment rate on gnp in developed and developing countries, population density on imports, and population density on exports. meanwhile, there is no significant relationship between predictor variables and other response variables. fix effect sur model interpretation through the results of the analysis, it is obtained that the general fix effect sur model for this research in equation (11). 𝐻𝐷𝐼𝑖𝑡 = 𝛼1𝑖 + 0.005(𝐷2𝑖 × 𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑖𝑡 ) − 0.003(𝐷2𝑖 × 𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡 ) − 0.001(𝐷2𝑖 × 𝑈𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑖𝑡 ) + 0.001𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑖𝑡 + 0𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡 − 0.002𝑈𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑖𝑡 𝐺𝑁𝑃𝑖𝑡 = 𝛼2𝑖 + 12.931(𝐷2𝑖 × 𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑖𝑡 ) − 9.768(𝐷2𝑖 × 𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡 ) − 16.019(𝐷2𝑖 × 𝑈𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑖𝑡 ) + 28.68𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑖𝑡 − 0.055𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡 − 10.358𝑈𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑖𝑡 𝐼𝑚𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑡 = 𝛼3𝑖 + 11.711(𝐷2𝑖 × 𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑖𝑡 ) + 3.776(𝐷2𝑖 × 𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡 ) − 4.474(𝐷2𝑖 × 𝑈𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑖𝑡 ) + 2.952𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑖𝑡 − 0.009𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡 − 2.195𝑈𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑖𝑡 pratama, fitriani, & astutik fix effect sur to analyze economic growth in developed and developing countries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 174 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑡 = 𝛼4𝑖 + 19.459(𝐷2𝑖 × 𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑖𝑡 ) + 0.471(𝐷2𝑖 × 𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡 ) − 4.718(𝐷2𝑖 × 𝑈𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑖𝑡 ) + 2.657𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑖𝑡 + 0.002𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡 − 2.019𝑈𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑖𝑡 𝑈𝑟𝑏𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑧𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡 = 𝛼5𝑖 + 0.169(𝐷2𝑖 × 𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑖𝑡 ) − 0.081(𝐷2𝑖 × 𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡 ) − 0.015(𝐷2𝑖 × 𝑈𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑖𝑡 ) + 0.103𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑖𝑡 − 0.009𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡 − 0.072𝑈𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑖𝑡 (12) through this model, the sur fix effect model for developing countries (𝐷2𝑖 =0) is obtained as follows. 𝐻𝐷𝐼𝑖𝑡 = 𝛼1𝑖 + 0.001𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑖𝑡 + 0.000𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡 − 0.002𝑇𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑘𝑎𝑡 𝑃𝑒𝑛𝑔𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑔𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑡 𝐺𝑁𝑃𝑖𝑡 = 𝛼2𝑖 + 28.680𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑖𝑡 − 0.055𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡 − 10.358𝑈𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑖𝑡 𝐼𝑚𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑡 = 𝛼3𝑖 + 2.952𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑖𝑡 − 0.009𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡 − 2.195𝑈𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑖𝑡 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑡 = 𝛼4𝑖 + 2.657𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑖𝑡 + 0.002𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡 − 2.019𝑈𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑖𝑡 𝑈𝑟𝑏𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑧𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡 = 𝛼5𝑖 + 0.103𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑖𝑡 − 0.009𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡 − 0.072𝑈𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑖𝑡 (13) meanwhile, the sur fixed effect model for developed countries (𝐷2𝑖 =1) is as follows. 𝐻𝐷𝐼𝑖𝑡 = 𝛼1𝑖 + (0.001 + 0.005)𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑖𝑡 + (0.000 − 0.003)𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡 + (−0.002 − 0.001)𝑈𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑖𝑡 = 𝛼1𝑖 + 0.006𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑖𝑡 − 0.003𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡 − 0.003𝑈𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑖𝑡 𝐺𝑁𝑃𝑖𝑡 = 𝛼2𝑖 + (28.680 + 12.931)𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑖𝑡 + (−0.055 − 9.768)𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡 + (−10.358 − 16.019)𝑈𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑖𝑡 = 𝛼2𝑖 + 41.611𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑖𝑡 − 9.823𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡 − 26.377𝑈𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑖𝑡 𝐼𝑚𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑡 = 𝛼3𝑖 + (2.952 + 11.711)𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑖𝑡 + (−0.009 + 3.776)𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡 + (−2.195 − 4.474)𝑈𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑖𝑡 = 𝛼3𝑖 + 14.663𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑖𝑡 + 3.767𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡 − 6.669𝑈𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑖𝑡 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑡 = 𝛼4𝑖 + (2.657 + 19.459)𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑖𝑡 + (0.002 + 0.471)𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡 + (−2.019 − 4.718)𝑈𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑖𝑡 = 𝛼4𝑖 + 22.116𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑖𝑡 + 0.473𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡 − 6.737𝑈𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑖𝑡 pratama, fitriani, & astutik fix effect sur to analyze economic growth in developed and developing countries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 175 𝑈𝑟𝑏𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑧𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡 = 𝛼5𝑖 + (0.103 + 0.169)𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑖𝑡 + (−0.009 − 0.081)𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡 + (−0.072 − 0.015)𝑈𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑖𝑡 = 𝛼5𝑖 + 0.272𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑖𝑡 − 0.900𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡 − 0.087𝑈𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑖𝑡 (14) through the sur fix effect model in developed and developing countries, it can be seen that every increase of 1 million population, the human development index in developing countries increases by 0.001, while the human development index in developed countries increases by 0.006. for every 1 million population increases, gnp in developing countries increases by us$ 26.68 billion, while gnp in developed countries increases by us$ 41.611 billion. for every 1 million increase in population, imports to developing countries increased by us$ 2.952 billion, while imports to developed countries increased by us$ 14.633 billion. for every 1 million increase in population, exports to developing countries increased by us$ 2.657 billion, while exports to developed countries increased by us$ 12.116 billion. for every increase of 1 million population, urbanization in developing countries increases by 0.103%, while urbanization in developed countries increases by 0.272%. with every 1% increase in the inflation rate, the human development index in developing countries does not change at all, while the human development index in developed countries decreases by 0.003. for every 1% increase in the inflation rate, gnp in developing countries decreased by us$ 0.055 billion, while gnp in developed countries decreased by us$ 9.823 billion. for every 1% increase in the inflation rate, imports to developing countries decreased by us$ 0.009 billion, but imports to developed countries increased by us$ 3.767 billion. for every 1% increase in the inflation rate, exports to developing countries increased by us$ 0.002 billion, while exports to developed countries increased by us$ 0.473 billion. for every 1% increase in the inflation rate, urbanization in developing countries decreases by 0.009%, while urbanization in developed countries decreases by 0.09%. if the unemployment rate increases by 1%, the human development index in developing countries will decrease by 0.002, while the human development index in developed countries will decrease by 0.003. if the unemployment rate increases by 1%, gnp in developing countries will decrease by us$ 10.358 billion, while gnp in developed countries will decrease by us$ 26.377 billion. if the unemployment rate increases by 1%, imports in developing countries will decrease by us$ 2.195 billion, while imports in developed countries will decrease by us$ 6,669 billion. if the unemployment rate increases by 1%, exports to developing countries will decrease by us$ 2.019 billion, while exports to developed countries will decrease by us$ 6.737 billion. if the unemployment rate increases by 1%, urbanization in developing countries will decrease by 0.072%, while urbanization in developed countries will decrease by 0.087%. pratama, fitriani, & astutik fix effect sur to analyze economic growth in developed and developing countries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 176 models for developing countries (example: jamaica) 𝐻𝐷𝐼𝑖𝑡 = 0.754 + 0.001𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑖𝑡 + 0𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡 − 0.002𝑈𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑖𝑡 𝐺𝑁𝑃𝑖𝑡 = 59.75 + 28.68𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑖𝑡 − 0.055𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡 − 10.358𝑈𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑖𝑡 𝐼𝑚𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑡 = 25.899 + 2.952𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑖𝑡 − 0.009𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡 − 2.195𝑈𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑖𝑡 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑡 = 21.943 + 2.657𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑖𝑡 + 0.002𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡 − 2.019𝑈𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑖𝑡 𝑈𝑟𝑏𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑧𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡 = 55.415 + 0.103𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑖𝑡 − 0.009𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡 − 0.072𝑈𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑖𝑡 through the model above, it can be seen that the average human development index for jamaica is 0.754, the average gnp for jamaica is us$ 59.75, the average import for jamaica is us$ 25.899, the average export for jamaica is us$ 21.943, the average -the average urbanization rate for the country of jamaica is 55.415%. every increase of 1 million population will increase the human development index in jamaica by 0.001, increase gnp in jamaica by us$ 28.68 billion, imports in jamaica by us$ 2.952 billion, exports in jamaica by us$ 2.657 billion, and urbanization in jamaica by 0.103%. every increase of 1 unit of inflation will not change the human development index in jamaica in the slightest, reducing gnp by us$ 0.055 billion, reducing imports in jamaica by us$ 0.009 billion, reducing exports in jamaica by us$ 0.002 billion, and reducing urbanization in jamaica by 0.009 %. every 1% increase in the unemployment rate will reduce the human development index in jamaica by 0.002, reduce gnp in jamaica by us$ 10.358 billion, reduce imports in jamaica by us$ 2.195 billion, reduce exports in jamaica by us$ 2.019 billion, and reduce urbanization in jamaica by 0.072%. model for developed countries (example: norway) 𝐻𝐷𝐼𝑖𝑡 = 0.935 + 0.006𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑖𝑡 − 0.003𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡 − 0.003𝑈𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑖𝑡 𝐺𝑁𝑃𝑖𝑡 = 351.095 + 41.611𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑖𝑡 − 9.823𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡 − 26.377𝑈𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑖𝑡 𝐼𝑚𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑡 = 77.559 + 14.663𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑖𝑡 + 3.767𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡 − 6.669𝑈𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑖𝑡 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑡 = 82.122 + 22.116𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑖𝑡 + 0.473𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡 − 6.737𝑈𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑖𝑡 𝑈𝑟𝑏𝑎𝑛𝑖𝑧𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡 = 79.987 + 0.272𝑃𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐷𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑖𝑡 − 0.9𝐼𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑡 − 0.087𝑈𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑖𝑡 pratama, fitriani, & astutik fix effect sur to analyze economic growth in developed and developing countries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 177 through the model above, it can be seen that the average human development index for norway is 0.935, the average gnp for norway is us$ 351.095, the average import for norway is us$ 77.559, the average export for norway is us$ 82.122, the average -the average urbanization rate for norway is 79.987%. every increase of 1 million population will increase the human development index in norway by 0.006, increase gnp in norway by us$ 41.633 billion, increase imports in norway by us$ 14.633 billion, increase exports in norway by us$ 22.116 billion, and increasing urbanization in norway 0.272%. every 1 unit increase in inflation will reduce the human development index in norway by 0.003, reduce gnp in norway by us$ 9.823 billion, increase imports in norway by us$ 3.767 billion, increase exports in norway by us$ 0.473 billion, and reduce urbanization in norway by 0.9%. every 1% increase in the unemployment rate will reduce the human development index in norway by 0.003, reduce gnp in norway by us$ 26.377 billion, reduce imports in norway by us$ 6.669 billion, reduce exports in norway by us$ 6.737 billion, and reduce urbanization in norway by 0.087%. the effect of population density on the human development index in developed and developing countries is not in line with research conducted by adim (2021), where the more the population, the human development index will decrease because if the population in an area is denser, the community tends to be less prosperous. however, the effect of population density on the human development index is in line with the research of antara and suryana (2020), where the more the population, the human development index will be because if the population in an area is denser than the development and facilities in that area tend to be more numerous than areas with a small population. the effect of population density on imports in developed and developing countries is in line with research conducted by mahardika and yuliarmi (2018), where the more people there are, the more imports in a country will also increase because the more people in a country, the goods/services that will be imported. government imports are also increasing, and many people carry out import transactions of goods/services from abroad, thereby increasing the value of imports. the effect of population density on exports in developed and developing countries is in line with research conducted by morrison (1977), where the more the population, the exports in a country will also increase because the more people in a country, the more goods/services that the government will export. there are also more and more people going abroad who carry out transactions for the export of goods/services from abroad, thus increasing the value of exports. the effect of inflation on the human development index in developed countries is in line with research conducted by pangesti and susanto (2018), where the higher the inflation, the higher the price of goods on the market, so that many people cannot afford it and in the end people's welfare decreases. the effect of inflation on gnp in developed and developing countries is in line with research conducted by silitonga (2021), where inflation causes prices of goods to increase and people's purchasing power to decrease so that state income also decreases. the effect of inflation on imports in developed countries is in line with the theory put forward by sukirno (2,008), where the higher the inflation, the cheaper the price of imported goods (the price of goods abroad is cheaper than pratama, fitriani, & astutik fix effect sur to analyze economic growth in developed and developing countries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 178 domestically) so that the government and society tend to import goods/services from abroad. the effect of the unemployment rate on the human development index in developed and developing countries is in line with research conducted by ningrum et al. (2020), where the higher the unemployment rate, the more social welfare will decrease because unemployed people cannot fulfill their needs. the effect of the unemployment rate on gnp in developed and developing countries is in line with research conducted by novriansyah (2018), where the higher the unemployment rate, the lower state income because a large number of unemployed people will not increase state income, so that state income tends to decrease when more and more people are unemployed. coefficient determination through the analysis results, it is obtained that the 𝑅2 statistic for the general fix effect model in equation (11) is 0.9846, which means that the fix effect sur model is very good where 98.46% of the variety of the values of the human development index, gnp, imports, exports, and urbanization can be explained by population density, inflation, and the unemployment rate, while the remaining 1.54% explained by other variables that are not included in the fix effect sur model. the results of the t test and table 1 showed that only 5 of the 30 research hypotheses were significant. however, the r2 statistic shows a very high value where population density, inflation, and unemployment rates explain 98.46% of the variation in the human development index values, gnp, imports, exports, and urbanization. this indicates that there are individual effects in each country (country characteristics) which causes the fix effect sur model to be very good at modeling the relationship between population density, inflation, and unemployment rates on the human development index, gnp, imports, exports, and urbanization in developed and developing countries. conclusion this study aims to develop the seemingly unrelated regression (sur) model where the data used is panel data and added a dummy variable as a slope component and apply it to model the effect of economic variables (population density, inflation, and unemployment rate) on economic growth indicators (human development index, gnp, imports, exports, and urbanization). the data used in this study are data on economic variables (population density, inflation, unemployment rate, human development index, gnp, imports, exports, and urbanization) in 145 countries in the world consisting of 110 developing countries and 35 developed countries in 2010 until 2019 sourced from the world bank and imf websites. through testing the significance of the parameters separately in the sur fix effect model in table 1, it is found that population density has a significant positive effect on gnp, imports, and exports. in addition, the unemployment rate and gnp have a significant negative effect. through testing the significance of the parameters separately in the sur pratama, fitriani, & astutik fix effect sur to analyze economic growth in developed and developing countries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 179 fix effect model in table 1, it was found that there were not many significant differences between the magnitude of the relationship between population density, inflation, and the unemployment rate on the human development index, gnp, imports, exports and urbanization in developed and developing countries. in addition, it is found that there are differences in the effect of the unemployment rate on gnp in the categories of developed and developing countries, where for each increase in the same unemployment rate, the decrease in gnp in developed countries is greater than with developing countries. therefore, all countries are expected to pay attention to population density and the unemployment rate because it can affect the country's gnp, imports, and exports. in addition, it is hoped that developing countries will be able to carry out population efficiency so that with an increasing population, the influence on gnp, imports, and exports will be greater like in developed countries where most of the population of developed countries has good quality human resources. on the other hand, it is hoped that developing countries will be able to add decent jobs to the population in order to reduce the unemployment rate so that the influence on gnp, imports, and exports will be greater like in developed countries where most of the population of developed countries are already working and have decent jobs and salaries. this study only uses balanced panel data to facilitate research. it is hoped that further research can develop this research with the seemingly unrelated regression model on unbalanced panel data so that all countries with incomplete data can be included in the model. acknowledgement this study is supported by the 2023 national competitive research/master’s thesis research (pkn-ptm) grand from ministry of education, culture, research, and technology (dikti), republic of indonesia. references adim, a. 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(1962). an efficient method of estimating seemingly unrelated regressions and tests for aggregation bias. journal of the american statistical association, 57(298), 348– 368. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1962.10480664 https://doi.org/10.18196/jesp.v22i2.10533 https://doi.org/10.18196/jesp.v23i2.15307 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2018.07.037 https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1962.10480664 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016, hlm. 103-113 doi: 10.18196/jesp.17.2.3788 pengaruh penerapan nilai-nilai islam dan komitmen terhadap etos kerja dan dampaknya kepada kualitas sumber daya manusia di lingkungan pemerintah kabupaten tasikmalaya maman sulaeman dosen politeknik triguna tasikmalaya jl. letjen ibrahim adjie no.7, indihiang, tasikmalaya, jawa barat 46151 email korespondensi: mansulaeman1274@gmail.com naskah diterima: juli 2016; disetujui: oktober 2016 abstract: the objectives of the research were to know and to analyze the influence of religious value and commitment application to work ethos and their impact to human resources quality in the government city of tasikmalaya. the research method used survey method. the data gathering used questionnaires and library study. the population in this research was 8984 civil servants in the government city of tasikmalaya. the sample of this research used proportional random sampling. by using path analysis, the study found that religious values, commitment, and work ethos have a significant impact to work quality. simultaneously, religious value, commitment and work ethos have a significant impact to work quality, so the hypothesis was verified. keywords: moslem value, commitment, work ethos, work quality. jel classifications: z120, m54. abstrak: tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui pengaruh nilai-nilai religi dan komitmen terhadap etos kerja dan dampaknya kepada kualitas kerja sumber daya manusia di lingkungan pemerintah kabupaten tasikmalaya. metode penelitian yang digunakan adalah metode survey. pengumpulan data diperoleh melalui kuesioner dan studi pustaka. populasi dalam penelitian ini adalah 8984 pegawai negeri sipil di lingkungan pemerintah kabupaten tasikmalaya. penentuan sampel menggunakan proporsional random sampling dan analisis data yang digunakan adalah analisis jalur. hasil penelitian menemukan bahwa secara parsial nilainilai religi, komitmen, etos kerja berpengaruh positif terhadap kualitas kerja. secara simultan nilai-nilai religi, komitmen, etos kerja berpengaruh positif terhadap kualitas kerja sehingga hipotesis teruji kebenarannya. kata kunci: nilai islam, komitmen, etos kerja, kualitas kerja. klasifikasi jel: z120, m54. mailto:mansulaeman1274@gmail.com 104 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016: 103-113 pendahuluan dalam rangka mewujudkan good corporate governance dan pemerintahan yang memiliki daya saing global diperlukan sumber daya manusia (sdm) yang mumpuni. pada saat ini sangat dirasakan kompetisi yang ketat di dunia kerja sebagai dampak adanya resesi global, maka organisasi memerlukan sdm yang profesional dan memiliki integritas dalam bekerja. kompetensi spiritual memiliki peran utama dalam mewujudkan integritas sebagai perilaku kunci untuk membangun kepercayaan dan akhlak yang luhur berdasarkan nilai-nilai agama. kemampuan untuk mengelola sdm, berupa pemberdayaan karyawan akan dapat meningkatkan komitmen karyawan terhadap organisasi. karyawan yang komitmen akan memberikan dampak yang besar terhadap pencapaian kinerja (performance) organisasi. sumber daya manusia dalam hal ini harus siap, mau dan mampu memberikan sumbangan terhadap usaha pencapaian tujuan organisasional. nilai-nilai tertentu yang ada dalam organisasi merupakan kekuatan yang potensial untuk mengarahkan karyawan dan organisasi kepada pencapaian tujuannya. sebagai organisasi yang selalu dihadapkan pada perkembangan kemajuan ilmu pengetahuan dan teknologi, instansi pemerintahan harus memiliki nilai-nilai moral tertentu yang menjadi pedoman bagi para karyawannya untuk mencapai tujuannya. pada beberapa organisasi, moral atau etika ini kemudian dikembangkan ke arah spiritual atau nilai-nilai islam (ancok dan suroso, 2008). kunci kemajuan dan keberhasilan suatu organisasi adalah etos kerja. etos kerja merupakan komponen primer yang harus dimiliki oleh sumber daya manusia yang berkualitas (sinamo, j., 2008). secara umum etos kerja pegawai mesih cenderung rendah. hal ini dapat dilihat dalam hal ketidaktepatan waktu. seringkali terjadi keterlambatan memulai suatu acara, keterlambatan jam masuk kerja, keterlambatan jadwal pemberangkatan alat transportasi atau keterlambatanketerlambatan lain yang disebabkan ketidak disiplinan akan waktu. kondisi di atas juga terjadi di kabupaten tasikmalaya. pada lingkungan pemerintahan kabupaten tasikmalaya, masih banyak pegawai negeri sipil yang belum memiliki disiplin yang baik. hal ini terlihat dari pelaksanaan apel pagi di lingkungan sekretariat daerah kabupaten tasikmalaya. banyak pns yang kesiangan mengikuti apel pagi, bahkan tidak ikut sama sekali. citra kabupaten tasikmalaya sebagai kota santri dan masyarakatnya yang damai, santun, taat beragama serta ramah diharapkan pegawai negeri sipil yang beragama islam memiliki etos kerja yang baik. etos kerja sangat erat kaitannya dengan nilai yang dianut oleh seseorang. bekerja bagi seorang muslim adalah suatu upaya yang sungguhsungguh, dengan mengerahkan seluruh aset, fikir dan, dzikirnya untuk mengaktualisasikan atau menampakkan arti dirinya sebagai hamba allah yang harus menundukkan dunia dan menempatkan dirinya sebagai bagian dari masyarakat yang terbaik (santoso, 2006). keberhasilan organisasi dalam pencapaian tujuannya tergantung pada seberapa besar kualitas kerja pegawai dan elemen yang ada di dalamnya. kualitas kerja yang optimal yang ditunjukan oleh pegawai atau oleh seluruh sub sistem organisasi akan menghasilkan kerja yang berkualitas serta menjadi modal organisasi untuk menanam benih kepercayaan publik. kualitas kerja sangat tergantung pada nilai-nilai, serta motivasi dan gairah kerja pegawai dalam bertindak. kualitas kerja pegawai merupakan tuntutan yang tidak bisa dihindarkan lagi apabila suatu instansi pemerintah menginginkan tercapainya tujuan organisasi. terlebih para aparat yang secara konstitusional dibentuk untuk memberikan pelayanan kepada masyarakat. kualitas kerja merupakan wujud perilaku dari pengaruh penerapan nilai-nilai islam dan komitmen… (maman sulaeman) 105 suatu kegiatan yang telah dilaksanakan dan sesuai dengan harapan yang telah ditentukan sebelumnya. kualitas kerja merupakan jawaban berhasil atau tidaknya dalam menciptakan dan menumbuhkan perilaku para pegawai untuk bekerja sama dengan pegawai lainnya dan juga sebagai indikator apakah tugas, fungsi dan tanggung jawab serta tujuan-tujuan apakah sudah tercapai secara optimal. terciptanya kualitas kerja apabila setiap individu dalam organisasi memiliki komitmen yang tinggi dalam melaksanakan visi dan misi organisasi. karena itu setiap pns sebagai aparatur pemerintah dituntut memiliki komitmen tersebut agar kinerja organisasi pemerintah yang dalam melaksanakan tanggungjawabnya yaitu melindungi, melayani, dan mengatur rakyat, dapat optimal. kualitas kerja yang masih rendah dapat dilihat dari kurangnya mengoptimalkan potensi diri seperti dalam pelaporan yang tidak selesai tepat waktu, hasil kerja yang tidak optimal yang tidak sesuai dengan intruksi pimpinan, belum lengkapnya bukti laporan-laporan administrasi perkantoran sesuai dengan ketentuan yang berlaku, dan antusiasme masih kurang, yaitu kurangnya mengindahkan saran atau masukan dari rekan kerja dan pimpinan dan sering terjadi data yang dihasilkan kurang akurat, beberapa orang yang meminta data dan laporan kurang ditanggapi dan tidak ramah dalam memberikannya. berdasarkan uraian di atas maka peneliti tertarik untuk melihat pengaruh penerapan nilai-nilai islam dan komitmen terhadap etos kerja serta dampaknya terhadap kualitas kerja pegawai negeri sipil di lingkungan pemerintah kabupaten tasikmalaya. metode penelitian penelitian ini termasuk dalam kategori penelitian verifikatif. penelitian verifikatif pada dasarnya ingin menguji kebenaran melalui pengumpulan data di lapangan. sifat verifikatif pada dasarnya ingin menguji kebenaran dari suatu hipotesis yang dilaksanakan melalui pengumpulan data di lapangan. operasionalisasi variabel berdasarkan judul dari penelitian ini yaitu pengaruh penerapan nilai-nilai religi terhadap etos kerja dan dampaknya kepada kualitas kerja sumber daya manusia di lingkungan pemerintah kabupaten tasikmalaya, maka penulis mengungkapkan beberapa penelitian variabel yang dioperasionalkan, yaitu sebagai berikut: (1) variabel independen yaitu variabel yang keberadaannya tidak dipengaruhi dan tidak tergantung kepada variabel lain atau variabel yang berdiri sendiri. variabel independen dalam penelitian ini adalah penerapan nilai-nilai religi (x1), dan komitment (x2). (2) variabel dependen yaitu suatu variabel terikat atau tidak bebas atau dengan kata lain variabel yang dipengaruhi oleh variabel independen atau variabel lain. adapun yang berfungsi sebagai variabel dependen dalam penelitian ini adalah etos kerja (y) dan kualitas kerja (z). teknik pengumpulan data populasi pada penelitian ini adalah seluruh pns di lingkungan pemerintahan kabupaten tasikmalaya sebanyak 8984 orang. ukuran sampel dalam penelitian ini menggunakan rumus sebagai berikut: n = keterangan: n = ukuran sampel n = ukuran populasi d = tingkat kesalahan 10% (0,1) n = n = 106 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016: 103-113 n = n = 90,91. dibulatkan 91. berdasarkan hasil perhitungan diatas, maka jumlah sampel minimal pada penelitian ini sebanyak 91 orang. namun dengan adanya pembulatan sampel pada setiap opd dan penambahan sampel agar setiap opd terwakili maka jumlah sampel yang diteliti sebanyak 124 pns. mengacu kepada landasan teori dan kerangka pemikiran dalam gambar yang menghubungkan keterkaitan antara variabel x, y dan z. maka analisis yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah path analysis. dengan analisis ini dapat dilihat besarnya koefisien jalur antara variabel bebas x1 dan x2 dengan variabel terikat y dan z. persamaan struktural yang menggambarkan hipotesis adalah: y = pyx1x1 + pyx2x2 + py ε1 z = pzx1x1 + pzx2x2 + zyy + pz ε2 berdasarkan data yang sudah tersusun, tahap selanjutnya menentukan jumlah skor untuk masing masing variabel, karena skor merupakan data yang terbentuk ordinal, untuk keperluan perhitungan selanjutnya data tersebut perlu ditransformasikan kedalam bentuk data interval dengan menggunakan metode successive interval. setelah itu, nilai-nilai skor untuk variabel dan tahap terakhir dilakukan penghitungan analisis jalur (path analysis). pengaruh keterkaitan antar variable dapat dilihat sebagaimana gambar dibawah ini: gambar 1. hubungan x1, x2, y dan z dimana: x1 = nilai islam x2 = komitmen y = etos kerja z = kualitas kerja hasil dan pembahasan pengaruh nilai-nilai religi (x1) dan komitmen (x2) terhadap etos kerja (y) sumber daya manusia di pemerintah kabupaten tasikmalaya. hasil pengolahan data dapat diketahui pengaruh secara parsial dan simultan nilainilai religi dan komitmen terhadap etos kerja sumber daya manusia di lingkungan pemerintah kabupaten tasikmalaya dapat dilihat pada tabel 1. tabel 1. pengaruh secara parsial dan simultan nilainilai religi dan komitmen terhadap etos kerja sumber daya manusia di lingkungan pemerintah kabupaten tasikmalaya model unstandardized coefficients standardized coefficients t sig. b std. error beta (constant) .417 3.068 .136 .892 religi .181 .019 .662 9.529 .000 komitmen .197 .115 .119 1.716 .089 dependent variabel: etos sumber: data diolah pengaruh penerapan nilai-nilai islam dan komitmen… (maman sulaeman) 107 pengaruh secara parsial nilai-nilai religi terhadap etos kerja hasil penghitungan spss diperoleh t hitung = 9,529 sedangkan t tabel sebesar 1,66 dengan demikian t hitung>t tabel sehingga dapat dikatakan bahwa terdapat pengaruh positif nilai-nilai religi terhadap etos pegawai. religiusitas mempunyai pengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap etos kerja. dalam organisasi jika setiap karyawan mempunyai religiusitas seperti mengikuti kegiatan beribadah, pergi ke pengajian, menginfakkan sebagian rizki, selalu berdoa, meningkatkan pengetahuan agama, mengasihi sesama, penyabar, tidak pemarah dan jujur maka akan mempengaruhi etos kerja mereka. pengaruh secara parsial komitmen terhadap etos kerja pengaruh secara parsial komitmen terhadap etos kerja pegawai negeri sipil di lingkungan pemerintah kabupaten tasikmalaya atau ρyx2 sebesar 0,119. untuk pengujian hipotesis secara parsial pengaruh komitmen (x2) terhadap etos kerja (y) dengan kriteria penolakan ho jika t hitung>t tabel. hasil penghitungan spss diperoleh t hitung = 1,716 sedangkan t tabel sebesar 1,66 dengan demikian t hitung > t tabel sehingga dapat dikatakan bahwa terdapat pengaruh positif komitmen terhadap etos kerja pegawai. komitmen adalah kemampuan dan kemauan untuk menyelaraskan perilaku pribadi dengan kebutuhan, prioritas dan tujuan organisasi. hal ini mencakup caracara mengembangkan tujuan atau memenuhi kebutuhan organisasi yang intinya mendahulukan misi organisasi dari pada kepentingan pribadi. pengaruh secara simultan nilai-nilai religi dan komitmen terhadap etos kerja besarnya pengaruh secara simultan nilainilai religi (x1) dan komitmen (x2) terhadap etos kerja (y) dapat dilihat dari indikator yang digunakan masing-masing variabel dengan menggunakan path analysis diperoleh hasil ρ2yx1x2 yang dapat dilihat pada tabel 2. tabel 2. pengaruh secara simultan nilai-nilai religi dan komitmen terhadap etos kerja model r r square adjusted r square std. error of the estimate 1 .719 a .517 .509 2.20458 predictors: (constant), komitmen, religi sumber: data diolah berdasarkan tabel 2 terlihat nilai ρ2yx1x2 sebesar 0,517 atau 51,7% artinya jika nilai-nilai religi, dan komitmen secara bersama-sama meningkat akan memberikan dampak positif, maka etos kerja pegawai juga akan meningkat. hasil perhitungan spss diperoleh nilai f hitung sebesar 64.813 > f-tabel 2,69 sehingga dapat disimpulkan bahwa terdapat pengaruh positif nilai-nilai religi dan komitmen terhadap etos kerja pegawai. secara lengkap pengaruh antara variabel nilai-nilai religi (x1), dan komitmen (x2) terhadap etos kerja (y) dapat dilihat sebagai berikut: gambar 2. nilai koefisien jalur antara variabel x1, x2 dan y berdasarkan gambar 2 di atas dapat dilihat pengaruh langsung dan tidak langsung antara x₁ έ = 0 3 ƿyx₁=0,662 rx2x1=0,415 y x₂ ƿyx₂ =0 11 108 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016: 103-113 variabel yaitu: pengaruh (x1) terhadap y: pengaruh langsung = 0.4382 pengaruh melalui (x2) = 0.0326 + pengaruh total (x1) = 0,4708 pengaruh (x2) terhadap y: pengaruh langsung = 0.0142 pengaruh melalui (x1) = 0.0327+ pengaruh total (x2) = 0.0469 pengaruh total x1, x2 = 0.517 pengaruh variabel lain = 0.483 berdasarkan hasil perhitungan di atas menunjukkan secara keseluruhan variabel nilainilai religi (x1) dan komitmen (x2) mempunyai pengaruh terhadap etos kerja pegawai (y) sebesar 0,517 atau 51,7% sedangkan sisanya dipengaruhi oleh variabel lain yaitu 48,3% yang tidak diteliti. adanya pengaruh positif nilai-nilai religi dan komitmen terhadap etos kerja pegawai dikarenakan nilai-nilai religi adalah serupa dengan konsep dan cita-cita yang menggerakan perilaku individu untuk menghasilkan etos kerja yang lebih baik. pengaruh nilai-nilai islam (x1) dan komitmen (x2) terhadap kualitas kerja (z) hasil pengolahan data dapat diketahui pengaruh secara parsial dan simultan nilainilai islam dan komitmen terhadap kualitas kerja dapat dilihat pada tabel 3. tabel 3. pengaruh secara parsial dan simultan nilainilai islam dan komitmen terhadap kualitas kerja dependent variable: kualitas sumber: data diolah berdasarkan data pada tabel 3 tersebut dapat diketahui bahwa: (1) pengaruh secara parsial nilai-nilai religi terhadap kualitas kerja. pengaruh secara parsial nilai-nilai religi terhadap kualitas kerja sumber daya manusia di lingkungan pemerintah kabupaten tasikmalaya atau ρzx1 sebesar 0,383. untuk pengujian hipotesis secara parsial pengaruh nilai-nilai religi (x1) terhadap kualitas kerja (z) dengan kriteria penolakan ho jika t hitung > t tabel. hasil penghitungan spss diperoleh t hitung = 4,697 sedangkan t tabel sebesar 1,66 dengan demikian t hitung > t tabel sehingga dapat dikatakan bahwa terdapat pengaruh positif nilai-nilai religi terhadap kualitas kerja pegawai. religiusitas diwujudkan dalam berbagai sisi kehidupan manusia. aktivitas beragama bukan hanya terjadi ketika seseorang melakukan peribadatan (ritual), tapi juga ketika melakukan aktivitas lain yang di dorong oleh kekuatan supranatural. bukan hanya yang berkaitan dengan aktivitas yang tampak dan dapat dilihat mata, tapi juga aktivitas yang tidak tampak dan terjadi dalam hati seseorang. karena itu, keberagamaan seseorang akan meliputi berbagai macam sisi atau dimensi. dengan demikian, agama adalah sebuah sistem yang berdimensi banyak. agama adalah sistem simbol, sistem keyakinan, sistem nilai dan sistem perilaku yang terlembagakan, yang semuanya itu berpusat pada persoalanpersoalan yang dihayati sebagai yang paling model unstandardized coefficients standardized coefficients t sig b std. error beta (constant) religi komitmen 2.962 4.833 .613 .541 .140 .030 .383 4.697 .000 .674 .181 .303 3.720 .000 pengaruh penerapan nilai-nilai islam dan komitmen… (maman sulaeman) maknawi (ultimate meaning). agama membentuk pribadi-pribadi yang kokoh dalam berperilaku, seperti, kejujuran, kedisiplinan, kesetiakawanan, keoptimisan, semangat, toleran. karena pada dasarnya agama memang mengajarkan mengenai moral. rasa keberagamaan seseorang (religiusitas) memiliki peran yang tidak kecil untuk memompa semangatnya dalam beraktifitas. secara teoritis akan sangat berbeda kualitas kerja seseorang dalam bekerja antara orang yang tidak memiliki dasar agama yang kuat dan yang memiliki dasar agama yang telah tertempa melalui penga-laman dan pemahaman yang benar terhadap keyakinan agamanya. (2) pengaruh secara parsial komitmen terhadap kualitas kerja sumber daya manusia di lingkungan pemerintah kabupaten tasikmalaya. pengaruh secara parsial komitmen terhadap kualitas kerja sumber daya manusia di lingkungan pemerintah kabupaten tasikmalaya atau ρzx2 sebesar 0,303. untuk pengujian hipotesis secara parsial pengaruh komitmen (x2) terhadap kualitas kerja (z) dengan kriteria penolakan ho jika t hitung > t tabel. hasil penghitungan spss diperoleh t hitung=3,720 sedangkan t tabel sebesar 1,66 dengan demikian t hitung>t tabel sehingga dapat dikatakan bahwa terdapat pengaruh positif komitmen terhadap kualitas kerja. tingkat komitmen baik komitmen perusahaan terhadap karyawan, maupun antara karyawan terhadap perusahaan sangat diperlukan karena melalui komitmen-komitmen tersebut akan tercipta iklim kerja yang profesional. komitmen organisasional merupakan “perspektif yang bersifat keperilakuan dimana komitmen diartikan sebagai perilaku yang konsisten dengan aktivitas (consistent lines of activity)” sehingga semakin tinggi komitmen karyawan tehadap organisasi dapat meningkatkan kinerja karyawan tersebut. semakin tinggi komitmen seseorang terhadap tugasnya maka akan semakin tinggi kinerja yang akan dihasilkan, yang menuju pada tingkat penilaian yang semakin tinggi. komitmen organisasional berpengaruh signifikan terhadap kinerja. semakin tinggi komitmen organisasional dari karyawan maka akan semakin meningkat kinerja individual karyawan. komitmen dengan dimensi afektif, normative dan continuence terbukti secara signifikan memiliki pengaruh positif terhadap kualitas kerja. hasil penelitian richard (1980) juga menunjukkan bahwa komitmen organisasional berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap usaha kerja dan kinerja dengan koefisien jalur 0,446. tingkat komitmen baik komitmen perusahaan terhadap karyawan, maupun antara karyawan terhadap perusahaan sangat diperlukan karena melalui komitmen-komitmen tersebut akan tercipta iklim kerja yang profesional. komitmen organisasional merupakan “perspektif yang bersifat keperilakuan dimana komitmen diartikan sebagai perilaku yang konsisten dengan aktivitas (consistent lines of activity)” (ivan aris dan imam gozhali, 2006:193). sehingga semakin tinggi komitmen karyawan tehadap organisasi dapat meningkatkan kinerja karyawan tersebut. wright (2007) mendukung bahwa semakin tinggi komitmen seseorang terhadap tugasnya maka akan semakin tinggi kinerja yang akan dihasilkan, yang menuju pada tingkat penilaian yang semakin tinggi. hal serupa juga di kemukakan oleh rivai (2005:87) yang menyatakan bahwa komitmen organisasional berpengaruh signifikan terhadap kinerja. semakin tinggi komitmen organisasional dari karyawan maka akan semakin meningkat kinerja individual karyawan. hasil penelitian setyaningdyah, et al., (2013) menyatakan bahwa disiplin dan komitmen berpengaruh signifikan terhadap kinerja karyawan. (3) pengaruh secara simultan nilai-nilai religi dan komitmen terhadap kualitas kerja sumber daya manusia di lingkungan pemerintah kabupaten tasikmalaya. besarnya pengaruh secara simultan nilai-nilai religi (x1) dan 110 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016: 103-113 komitmen (x2) terhadap kualitas kerja (z) dapat dilihat dari indikator yang digunakan masingmasing variabel dengan menggunakan path analysis diperoleh hasil ρ2zx1x2 yang dapat dilihat pada tabel 4. tabel 4. besarnya pengaruh secara simultan nilai-nilai religi (x1) dan komitmen (x2) terhadap kualitas kerja (z) model r r square adjusted r square std. error of the estimate 1 .579 a .335 .324 3.47228 predictors: (constant), komitmen, religi sumber: data diolah berdasarkan tabel di atas terlihat nilai ρ2zx1x2 sebesar 0,335 atau 33,5% artinya jika nilai-nilai religi dan komitmen secara bersama-sama meningkat akan memberikan dampak positif, maka kualitas kerja pegawai juga akan meningkat. untuk pengujian hipotesis secara simultan diperoleh nilai f hitung sebesar 30,434 > f-tabel 2,69 sehingga dapat disimpulkan bahwa terdapat pengaruh positif nilai-nilai religi dan komitmen terhadap kualitas kerja pegawai. secara lengkap pengaruh antara variabel nilai-nilai religi (x1), dan komitmen (x2) terhadap kualitas kerja (z) dapat dilihat pada gambar 3. gambar 3. nilai koefisien jalur antara variabel x1, x2 dan z berdasarkan gambar 3 dapat dilihat pengaruh langsung dan tidak langsung antara variabel yaitu: pengaruh (x1) terhadap z: pengaruh langsung = 0,146689 pengaruh melalui (x2) = 0,048160 + pengaruh total (x1) = 0,194849 analisis (x2) terhadap z: pengaruh langsung = 0,091809 pengaruh melalui (x1) = 0,048160 + pengaruh total (x2) = 0,139969 pengaruh total x1, x2, = 0,335 pengaruh variabel lain = 0,665 berdasarkan hasil perhitungan di atas menunjukkan secara keseluruhan variabel nilai-nilai religi (x1), dan komitmen (x2) mempunyai pengaruh terhadap kualitas kerja pegawai (z) sebesar 0,335 atau 33,5 persen, sedangkan sisanya dipengaruhi oleh variabel lain yaitu 66,5 persen. adanya pengaruh positif nilai-nilai religi dan komitmen terhadap kualitas kerja menunjukkan bahwa penerapan nilai religi dan komitmen yang tinggi dari pegawai dapat menghasilkan kualitas kerja yang baik (rohilah, elah. 2010). pengaruh etos kerja terhadap kualitas kerja hasil pengolahan data dapat diketahui pengaruh etos kerja terhadap kualitas sumber daya manusia di lingkungan pemerintah kabupaten tasikmalaya yang dapat dilihat pada tabel 5. x₁ έ = 0,665 ƿzx₁=0,383 z rx2x1=0,415 x₂ ƿzx₂ =0,303 111 pengaruh penerapan nilai-nilai islam dan komitmen… (maman sulaeman) tabel 5. pengaruh etos kerja terhadap kualitas sumber daya manusia di lingkungan pemerintah kabupaten tasikmalaya model unstandardized coefficients standardized coefficients t sig. b std. error beta (constant) religi komitmen etos 2.835 4.762 .595 .553 .085 .039 .233 2.195 .030 .614 .181 .276 3.399 .001 .303 .141 .226 2.149 .034 dependent variable: kualitas sumber: data diolah berdasarkan tabel 5 terlihat bahwa etos kerja mempunyai pengaruh positif terhadap kualitas kerja. hal ini ditunjukkan oleh t hitung=2,149 sedangkan ttabel sebesar 1,66 dengan demikian t-hitung>t-tabel sehingga hipotesis yang menyatakan bahwa terdapat pengaruh positif etos kerja terhadap kualitas kerja diterima. hasil ini mendukung hasil penelitian irawan (2011) yang menunjukkan bahwa pada hipotesis etos kerja islami berpengaruh yang signifikan terhadap kualitas kerja karyawan, dimana hasil uji regresi asecara simultan diketahui bahwa nilai f hitung diperoleh sebesar 47,251 lebih besar dari nilai f-tabel 2,30. islam menuntut dan mengarahkan kaum muslimin untuk melakukan tindakan sesuai dengan apa yang dibolehkan dan dilarang oleh allah swt. demikian pula dalam melaksanakan aktivitas ekonomi, nilai-nilai islam senantiasa menjadi landasan utamanya. pengaruh nilai-nilai religi, komitmen dan etos kerja terhadap kualitas kerja pengaruh nilai-nilai religi (x1) dan komitmen (x2) terhadap etos kerja (y) dan dampaknya terhadap kualitas kerja (z) sumber daya manusia di lingkungan pemerintah kabupaten tasikmalaya dapat dilihat pada tabel 6. tabel 6. pengaruh nilai-nilai religi, komitmen dan etos kerja terhadap kualitas kerja model unstandardized coefficients standardized coefficients sign b std. error beta t (constant) religi komitmen etos 2.835 4.762 .595 .085 .039 .233 2.195 .030 .614 .181 .276 3.399 .001 .303 .141 .226 2.149 .034 dependent variable: kualitas sumber: data diolah berdasarkan data pada tabel 6 terlihat bahwa besar pengaruh nilai-nilai religi (x1) dan komitmen (x2) terhadap etos kerja (y) dan dampaknya terhadap kualitas kerja (z) sumber daya manusia di lingkungan pemerintah kabupaten tasikmalaya sebesar 35,9% yang dapat digambarkan pada gambar 4. gambar 4. nilai koefisien jalur antara variabel x1, x2, y dan z 112 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016: 103-113 berdasarkan hasil perhitungan di atas menunjukkan secara keseluruhan variabel nilainilai religi (x1) dan komitmen (x2) mempunyai pengaruh positif terhadap etos kerja (y) dan mempunyai dampak positif terhadap kualitas kerja sebesar 35,9% sedangkan sisanya dipengaruhi oleh variabel lain yaitu 64,1%. untuk pengujian hipotesis secara simultan diperoleh nilai f-hitung sebesar 22,435 > f-tabel 2,69 sehingga dapat disimpulkan bahwa terdapat pengaruh positif nilai-nilai religi dan komitmen terhadap etos kerja dan berdampak positif terhadap kualitas kerja sumber daya manusia di lingkungan pemerintah kabupaten tasikmalaya. adapun pengaruh masing-masing variable bebas terhadap variabel terikat baik secara langsung maupun tidak langsung penulis sajikan dalam tabel 7. tabel 7. pengaruh masing-masing variabel bebas terhadap variable terikat baik secara langsung maupun tidak langsung keterangan nilai pengaruh x1 terhadap y pengaruh langsung x1terhadap 0.4382 pengaruh tidak langsung melalui x2 0.0327 pengaruh total x1 terhadap y 0.4709 pengaruh x2 terhadap y pengaruh langsung x2terhadap y 0.0142 pengaruh tidak langsung x2 melalui (x1) = 0.0327 pengaruh total (x2) terhadap y 0.0469 total pengaruh x1, x2 terhadap y 0.5178 pengaruh x1 terhadap z pengaruh langsung x1terhadap z 0.0543 pengaruh tidak langsung x1 melalui x2 = 0.0267 pengaruh tidak langsung x1 melalui y = 0.0749 pengaruh total x1 terhadap z 0.1559 pengaruh x2 terhadap z pengaruh langsung x2terhadap z 0.0762 pengaruh tidak langsung x2 melalui (x1) = 0.0267 pengaruh tidak langsung x2 melalui y = 0.0887 pengaruh total x2 terhadap z 0.1916 total pengaruh x1, x2 terhadap z 0.2446 pengaruh y terhadap z 0.051 totla pengaruh x1, x2, dan y terhadap z 0.359 sumber: data diolah berdasarkan hasil perhitungan di atas dapat dijelaskan bahwa besarnya pengaruh langsung penerapan nilai-nilai religi terhadap kualitas kerja adalah sebesar 5,43% dan pengaruh tidak langsungnya melalui komitmen sebesar 2,67% dan melalui etos kerja sebesar 7,49%. sedangkan pengaruh langsung komitmen terhadap kualitas kerja adalah sebesar 7,62% dan pengaruh tidak langsungnya melalui nilai-nilai religi sebesar 2,67% dan melalui etos kerja sebesar 8,86%. pengaruh langsung etos kerja terhadap kualitas kerja sumber daya manusia sebesar 5,10%. hasil penelitian tersebut memberi gambaran bahwa variabel nilai-nilai religi mempunyai pengaruh terhadap etos kerja dan kualitas kerja sumber daya manusia pegawai, variabel religi dan variabel komitmen yang diterapkan oleh pegawai negeri sipil di lingkungan pemerintah kabupaten tasikmalaya dapat meningkatkan etos kerja yang berdampak terhadap meningkatnya kualitas kerja sumber daya manusia. pada penelitian ini besarnya pengaruh penerapan nilai-nilai religi, komitmen dan etos kerja terhadap kualitas kerja sumber daya manusia sebesar 35,9 % berarti ada variabel lain yang berpengaruh besar terhadap kualitas kerja sebesar 64,1 %. hal ini dapat disebabkan karena implementasi dari nilai-nilai religi masih ada item-item yang belum dilaksanakan, demikian juga dengan komitmen pegawai yang belum dilakukan secara sungguhsungguh. simpulan berdasarkan analisis hasil penelitian tentang pengaruh penerapan nilai-nilai islam dan komitmen terhadap etos kerja dan dampaknya kepada kualitas kerja sumber daya manusia di lingkungan pemerintah kabupaten tasikmalaya, dapat ditarik kesimpulan sebagai berikut: 1. terdapat pengaruh positif baik secara parsial maupun secara simultan nilai-nilai islam dan komitmen terhadap etos kerja sumber daya manusia di lingkungan pemerintah kabupaten tasikmalaya. 2. terdapat pengaruh positif baik secara parsial maupun secara simultan nilai-nilai islam dan komitmen terhadap kualitas kerja sumber pengaruh penerapan nilai-nilai islam dan komitmen… (maman sulaeman) 113 daya manusia di lingkungan pemerintah kabupaten tasikmalaya. 3. terdapat pengaruh positif etos kerja terhadap kualitas kerja sumber daya manusia di lingkungan pemerintah kabupaten tasikmalaya. 4. terdapat pengaruh positif baik secara parsial maupun secara simultan nilai-nilai islam dan komitmen terhadap etos kerja dan berdampak positif terhadap kualitas kerja sumber daya manusia di lingkungan pemerintah kabupaten tasikmalaya. daftar pustaka ancok dan suroso, 2008. psikologi islam, pustaka pelajar: yogyakarta. aries, ivan dan imam ghozali. 2006. “akuntansi keperilakuan”. semarang: universitas diponegoro. imam, gozhali, 2001, aplikasi analisis multivariate dengan program spss, edisi 2, badan penerbit universitas diponegoro, semarang morris, james h., steers, richard m. (1980). “structural influences on organizational commitment.” journal of vocational behaviour, 17 (1): 50-57 rivai, harif a 2001, „pengaruh kepuasan gaji, kepuasan kerja, dan komitmen organisasional terhadap intensi keluar: pengujian empiris model turnover‟, jurnal bisnis dan akuntansi. vol. 3, no,1, april 2001 hal 335-352. rivai, harif a 2005, „pengaruh kompensasi, komitmen organisasional, dan kompetensi terhadap kinerja individual‟, kajian bisnis, vol. 3, september-desember 2005, 272-286 rohilah, elah. 2010. nilai-nilai islam dalam sumber daya manusia. seminar manajemen sumber daya manusia. bandung santoso, 2006. etos kerja pengusaha muslim perkotaan di kota ponorogo. jurnal penelitian humaniora, edisi khusus, juni 2006:115-125.ponorogo: universitas muhammadiyah ponorogo. setyaningdyah, e., kertahadi, u.n., dan thoyib, a (2013), “the effects of human resource competence, organisational commitment and transactional leadership on work discipline, job satisfaction and employees performance”, interdisciplinary journal of contemporary research in business, 5 (4), page 9. sinamo, j. 2008. ethos 21: etos kerja profesional di era digital global. jakarta: penerbit institut darma mahardika. wright, p. m. & kehoe, r. r. (2007). human resource practices and organizational commitment: a deeper examination (cahrs working paper #07-15). ithaca, ny: cornell university, school of industrial and labor relations, center for advanced human resource studies. http:// digitalcommons.ilr.cornell.edu/cahrswp/ jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 24 nomor 1, april 2023 article type: research paper rupiah exchange rate: the determinants and impact of shocks on the economy erida pratiwik and sucihatiningsih dian wisika prajanti* abstract: the repetition of policy dynamics on quantitative easing (qe) and interest rate by the fed potentially cause fluctuations in the exchange rate, including in indonesia. therefore, this study aims to analyze the determinants and impacts of exchange rate shocks. inflation (inf), money supply (ljub), open market operations (opt), foreign exchange reserves (lcd), expected inflation (lehu) and interest rates (sb) were used to analyze the determinants of exchange rate (nt) through auto regressive distributed lag (ardl). the impact of nt shocks was analyzed using vector auto regressive (var) by lehu, residential property price index (pihpr), stock transactions (ltrans), and banking credit volume (vk). the expected inflation variable and incorporation of ardl-var are novelties in this study. in the secondary time series data for 2014m1 – 2022m9 period, the ardl results showed that inf and ljub had positive effect on nt in both long and short run, while opt, lcd and sb had negative effect. lehu had negative effect in the short run, but positive in the long run. the speed of adjustment in the model was 49.86% per month. shock of nt had impacted vk until 15 months, pihpr at 7 months, ltrans at 10 months, and lehu at 14 months. based on these results, it can be implied that the monetary authority must maintain stability of nt, especially by inf and ljub transmission. next, shock's impact must also be overcome, especially on vk. this research is only focused on monetary sector, further research will be refined with other macroeconomic variables. keywords: exchange rate; impact; influence; monetary; rupiah jel classification: e31; e42; e50; f45 introduction monetary policy is a crucial aspect of a country's economy. the main goal to be achieved from monetary policy is to maintain exchange rate stability (kabundi & mlachila, 2019). currently, monetary policy plays an important role in setting the price level, which is reflected by the inflation variable (le et al., 2021). even though the main success indicator of monetary policy is inflation, the role of other exogenous factors affecting exchange rates should not be ignored, especially in countries that adhere floating exchange rate regime. the stability of the exchange rate is important to maintain considering the vital role of this variable for the economy. apart from reflecting the competitiveness of a domestic country's currency toward other countries, movement in exchange rates also has a strong potential impact on public economic behavior in allocating their resources. exchange rate movements can be used as a reflection of cost, relative prices, and productivity of economic resources (adewuyi et al., 2021). affiliation: department of development economics, faculty of economics and business, universitas negeri semarang, central java, indonesia *correspondence: dianwisika@mail.unnes.ac.id this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v24i1.18016 citation: pratiwik, e., & prajanti, s. d. w. (2023). rupiah exchange rate: the determinants and impact of shocks on the economy. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 24(1), 100126. article history received: 24 feb 2023 revised: 03 may 2023 16 may 2023 accepted: 19 may 2023 https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=wsxa7hwaaaaj&hl=en&oi=ao https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?user=pjvozncaaaaj&hl=en https://ep.unnes.ac.id/web/ https://ep.unnes.ac.id/web/ https://ep.unnes.ac.id/web/ https://ep.unnes.ac.id/web/ mailto:dianwisika@mail.unnes.ac.id http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp http://dx.doi.org/10.18196/jesp.v24i1.18016 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v24i1.18016&domain=pdf pratiwik & prajanti rupiah exchange rate: the determinants and impact of shocks on the economy jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 101 indonesia is one of the developing countries with fluctuating historical exchange rate data and has tended to depreciate over the last 10 years. apart from the 1998 crisis, the largest exchange rate weakening of the indonesian rupiah (idr) against dollar of the united states (usd) occurred in 2014, following the control of the quantitative easing policy and the increase in interest rates by the fed since may 2013 in order to economic recovery due to the subprime mortgage crisis that occurred since 2008. these policies raised expectations for the united states economy, causing investors to withdraw their funds (capital outflow) from emerging market countries. this condition resulted in usd strengthening, while the exchange rates of emerging market countries weakened, including indonesia. the deteriorating condition of the exchange rate due to the aggressive policies of the fed has been researched by basri (2017), dinata and oktora (2020), estrada et al. (2016), le et al. (2021), park et al. (2015), and triggs et al. (2019). the results of these studies suggested various conclusions. the banking sector is the most affected by exchange rate fluctuations due to changes in quantitative easing and global interest rates (basri, 2017; estrada et al., 2016; park et al., 2015; triggs et al., 2019). different findings resulted from the research of dinata and oktora (2020) and le et al. (2021), the findings of these studies stated that the impact of exchange rate movements does not only occur in the banking sector, but other sectors are also affected, particularly regarding asset price movements and changes in consumption behavior. figure 1. statistics of idr/usd in 2003 2022 source: central bank of indonesia, 2023 (data processed) various studies regarding the effect of monetary variables on exchange rates have been carried out and found several inconsistent results. related to inflation, research from bato et al. (2017) and chandrarin et al. (2022) stated that inflation has a plus coefficient effect on the exchange rate, whereas the results of research from fauji (2016) and wicesa et al. (2021) showed the opposite result. next, the influence of the money supply is positive (funashima, 2020; yulianti, 2014). however, research from alawiyah et al. (2019) and ghosh and bhadury (2018) showed the opposite result. the open market operations has 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 pratiwik & prajanti rupiah exchange rate: the determinants and impact of shocks on the economy jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 102 a negative effect on the exchange rate (carli & gomis-porqueras, 2021; rocheteau et al., 2018). meanwhile, the research results of cassola and koulischer (2019) dan kirana (2017) showed that the effect of open market operations on the exchange rate is positive. furthermore, the monetary policy instrument by increase in interest rates resulted in strengthening of the exchange rate or appreciation (elias et al., 2022; kilian & zhou, 2022). the research results from sa’adah (2020) and yung (2021) precisely showed conflicting results, where an increase in interest rates causes depreciation of the exchange rate. the condition of international economic flows as reflected by the position of foreign exchange reserves also has been studied by various previous studies. the higher foreign exchange reserves have been proven to cause the appreciation of exchange rate (chanda et al., 2020; ito & mccauley, 2020). discordant results were shown from the research findings of gupta et al. (2014) and hammoudeh et al. (2022). the exchange rate as a reflection of the condition country's currency competitiveness is also influenced by expectations of future prices or expectations of inflation. research from herkenhoff and sauré (2021) and lee and kim (2019) showed that expected inflation have a positive effect on the exchange rate. the expected inflation variable is rarely used in research, so conflicting results have not been found. the findings of different research results show about determinants of exchange rate especially related to the monetary sector and international trade are important to discuss, considering that to intervent the exchange rate movements the main tool used by the state will be realized through policies in the monetary sector and international competitiveness. recently, the fed seems to have re-imposed qe controls and expanded interest rates to overcome post-crisis economic overheating due to the pandemic (covid-19). from march to december 2022, the fed has raised interest rates 7 times with an accumulation of 425 basis points, from 0% to 4.25%. central bank of indonesia responded that condition by increasing the bank indonesia 7 day repo rate (bi 7drr) by 200 basis points from july (3.5%) to december 2022 (5.5%). this economic turmoil is predicted to continue, so that the rupiah exchange rate is also predicted to fluctuate and tend to depreciate (sunaryati & munandar, 2023). historical data on the deteriorating exchange rate as a outcome of qe policy and the fed's interest rate also economy condition which is predicted continue to worsen for several years after the covid-19 pandemic crisis must be responded to with appropriate policies so that the negative impact can be overcome immediately. identification of the factors that work on exchange rate movements as well as analysis of the sectors most affected will assist in formulating these policies. monetary policy as responsible for exchange rate stability must be properly formulated. therefore, this research objective is to analyze the determinants of exchange rate, also the impact of exchange rate shocks on the economy. determinants exchange rate carried out using auto regressive distributed lag (ardl). next, to analyze the impact of exchange rate shocks, vector auto regression (var) will be used. the use of ardl combined with var is a novelty in this study. in addition, this study also includes expected inflation as a variable that rarely used to estimate exchange rate movements, even though this variable has an important role in policy making. the research will be focused 2014 – 2022 period considering there was a massive movement pratiwik & prajanti rupiah exchange rate: the determinants and impact of shocks on the economy jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 103 in the rupiah exchange rate in that period. apart from contributing theoretically to the literature study regarding the influence factors and impacts of exchange rate shocks, the findings of this study also contribute practically in the form of detailed policy recommendations. the importance of this research is considering the exchange rate not only as a volatile variable but also its role as monetary policies main goal. policies are compiled and established with the aim of being a solution of the problem or improving the quality of a condition. at the macroeconomic level, particularly in the monetary sector, policymaking requires complex stages. when the central bank as the policy maker for the monetary sector has established a policy, it will continuously affect other sectors. the exchange rate as a reflection of a country's monetary power whose movements are displayed in real time on the foreign exchange market, is a variable that has great power (impactful) in influencing the balance of economy. the position of monetary policy instruments is vital in controlling the rupiah movement. even though a country adheres to floating exchange rate regime, the intervention of monetary institutions in transmissions that affect exchange rates must still be carried out for the sake of economic stability and public expectations of future conditions. however, exchange rate movements cannot be completely controlled, so the impact of these movements is a consequence that must be addressed. by knowing the factors that determine the exchange rate, it will help in overcoming the impact of shock that occur on the exchange rate. this topic will be shown in this research with 5 main parts, starting from introduction to explain the research background, research gaps, data, research aims, research importance and novelty. then, the literature review is written to show some of previous studies and hypotheses. the research continued at research method part to explain the analysis technique and the procedure. the answer of hypotheses and research aims are answered in the result and discussion. finally, research concludes and explained the policies recommendation, which also acknowledged the limitation in the conclusion. various literature reviews regarding exchange rates have been carried out to develop research hypotheses. the exchange rate reflects the circumstances of domestic purchasing power also the international competitiveness of a country's currency. when the domestic economy is currently in high inflation, the purchasing power of money in the country becomes weak (theory of money quantity). in addition, on the international trade flow, there will be more rupiah that must be converted to usd. this condition means that the higher level of domestic inflation, the more depreciated the exchange rate will be proof that inflation causes exchange rate depreciation had been carried out by bato et al. (2017), and chandrarin et al. (2022). h1: inflation has a positive effect on the exchange rate. inflation is a success indicator of monetary policy. when inflation increase exceeds the target, the monetary authority (central bank) will control it through monetary policy instruments. the causes of inflation can be traced from production side (cost push inflation) or by consumption side (demand pull inflation), both of them are related to the pratiwik & prajanti rupiah exchange rate: the determinants and impact of shocks on the economy jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 104 price level and purchasing power. to overcome this, the volume of money supply has a crucial role. the higher volume of money supply, it means that easier for people to consume. this condition will promote the higher quantity of demand (goods and services). if the supply side is unable to equal with the level of demand because economic conditions not yet possible to improve production input factors, then the equilibrium will shift, the price level will rise. if this price increase continues, it is called inflation (demand pull inflation), and in the long run it has the potential to cause exchange rate depreciation. it can be concluded that high volume of money supply involve a depreciation in the exchange rate (funashima, 2020; gong et al., 2022). h2: the money supply has a positive effect on the exchange rate. the movement of money supply represents purchasing power and is influenced by inflation expectations. if the public currently faced high money supply, expectations for future prices of domestic products will also increase. this has resulted in people preferring to buy imported products because they are cheaper than domestic ones. the higher interest in imported products, the quantity of imports will increase, so the trade balance will decrease and result in exchange rate depreciation. the research result from herkenhoff and sauré (2021) and lee and kim (2019) validated that higher expected inflation led the exchange rate depreciation. h3: expected inflation have a positive effect on exchange rates. controlling volume of money supply is a strategic step the central bank takes to manage inflation. instruments that can be responded quickly by financial institutions and the general public in dealing with this matter are interest rates. the higher level of interest rate will press the public's interest in applying for bank credit loans (liquidity preference theory). this happens because the rate of return that must be given in the future is higher than the condition when interest rates are slight. moreover, people will be more interested in saving because the value of money that will be received in the future will be higher. the higher saving cause the smaller of money supply (the volume of money supply decreases). public interest in declining consumption also suppresses inflation, due to the low level of demand for goods and services (andrieș et al., 2017). at a fixed level of supply, this shift in demand causes the equilibrium to shift to the lower left, the price level decreases. if this condition happen continuously, deflation will occur. the price of domestic goods and services becomes cheaper. it has the potential to encourage consumption interest in domestic goods to be higher so that the level of imports can be reduced. the lower the import, the less rupiah (domestic currency) that must be converted to usd, the stronger the exchange rate (ulm & hambuckers, 2022). h4: interest rates have a negative effect on exchange rates. pratiwik & prajanti rupiah exchange rate: the determinants and impact of shocks on the economy jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 105 a decrease in imports will increase foreign exchange reserves because there is no deficit on trade balance (aulia & masbar, 2016). high foreign exchange reserves indicate that the ability of the monetary authority to control exchange rate is getting stronger, it will encourage exchange rate appreciation (chanda et al., 2020; ito & mccauley, 2020; uz akdogan, 2020). h5: foreign exchange reserves have a negative effect on the exchange rate. the interest rate is the instrument taken by the central bank to restrain money supply through the transmission of financial institution responses. this requires a time lag, while the exchange rate changes every second and within a certain time requires fast action to prevent the depreciation rate from worsening. to handle this condition, the central bank will use the open market operation instrument because it can directly intervene in the foreign exchange (forex) market on a daily basis. when the rupiah is depreciating (high money supply), open market operations to encourage exchange rate strengthening will be carried out (rocheteau et al., 2018), one of which is through the issuance of bank indonesia certificates (bic). when bi issues bic, commercial banks and intermediaries have the right to purchase them. these commercial banks and intermediary institutions will provide a certain amount of funds (according to the bic nominal) to bank indonesia. this condition reabsorbed money supply, increasing the power to supply rupiah in the forex market. at a constant level of demand for the rupiah, while the supply of rupiah increases (liquidity injection), the equilibrium (exchange rate) in the market will decrease (appreciate). this condition indicates that open market injection operations affect the appreciated exchange rate, while absorption of that instrument will result in exchange rate depreciation (carli & gomis-porqueras, 2021). h6: open market operations have a negative effect on exchange rates. significant exchange rate movements (due to shocks or some phenomena) lead to changes in economic variables, especially macroeconomics. shocks that occur in exchange rates and lead to depreciation have the potential to reduce bank credit volume (fabiani et al., 2022). this can be traced from one of the indicators of exchange rate depreciation: the high domestic inflation marked by large money supply volumes. to seek an appreciation of the exchange rate, policies will be taken that are able to reduce the volume of money supply, the example is increasing interest rates. this condition will encourage an increase in saving, but on the other hand it will suppress credit volume (yun & cho, 2022). h7: if there is a shock of exchange rate, the credit volume will decrease. the decline in credit volume indicates that the level of public consumption will decrease. this is a separate signal for the property sector, where a decline in consumption indicates low public purchasing power so that the level of demand for the property sector will also pratiwik & prajanti rupiah exchange rate: the determinants and impact of shocks on the economy jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 106 decrease. to cope with the decline in the level of demand, prices from property supplies will be lowered (anastasia & hidayat, 2019; dąbrowski & wróblewska, 2020). h8: if there is a shock of exchange rate, property prices will decrease. lower interest rates in emerging market countries tend to generate negative sentiment for foreign investors. low interest rates decrease foreign investors expectations of the rate of return on capital, resulting in an outflow of funds. this condition will be exploited by domestic investors to dominate the stock exchange. therefore, when the exchange rate depreciates, the volume of stock transactions appears to have increased (ding, 2021; huang et al., 2021; sa’adah, 2020). h9: if there is a shock of exchange rate, stock transaction volume will increase. a shock to the exchange rate also has the potential to make expectations of future prices more expensive. this occurs because a weak exchange rate will make production costs and output prices (especially with imported raw materials) more expensive. such conditions will push future general prices (inflation expectations) higher than at present (janah & pujiati, 2018). exchange rate shocks make people expect future prices to be more expensive than the current price. it can be state that the response of expected inflation to exchange rate shocks is positive or increases (anderl & caporale, 2022; lee & kim, 2019). h10: if there is a shock of exchange rate, expected inflation will increase. research method research objectives and methods are two closely related aspects. auto regressive distributed lag (ardl) was used in this study to analyze the variables that influence (determinants) exchange rates. to attain this purpose, the monetary sector's determinants, namely inflation (inf), money supply (ljub), open market operations (opt), foreign exchange reserves (lcd), interest rates (sb), and expected 3-month general prices or expected inflation (lehu), are being broken down. the rupiah exchange rate (nt) toward the united states dollar (usd) has a role as the dependent variable. next, the research objective is the impact of exchange rate shocks on the economy, executed using vector auto regressive (var), by positioning the exchange rate variable (nt) as a vector as well as the inflation expectation variable (lehu), changes in residential property price index (pihpr), stock transaction volume (ltrans), and general banking credit volume (vk) as response variables. this research was executed using a quantitative approach to secondary time series data for the period january 2014 to september 2022 pratiwik & prajanti rupiah exchange rate: the determinants and impact of shocks on the economy jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 107 in indonesia obtained from the official websites of central bank of indonesia (bi), the central bureau of statistics (bps) and the financial services authority (ojk). figure 2 research design table 1 attribute of variables code variable specification measurement source nt exchange rate last mont of jisdor kurs rupiah/usd. idr/usd bi inf inflation consumer price index approach. % bi ljub money supply (log) broad total of money supply (m2) rp trilion ➔% bps opt open market operation absorbtion or injection from rupiah and forex intervence rp trilion bi lcd foreign exchange reserves (log) amount of monetary external assets (irfcl concept). usd milion ➔% bi sb interest rate central bank of indonesia 7 days repo rate (bi7drr). % bi lehu expected inflation (log) index of general price expectation on the next 3 months. base point ➔% bi pihpr residential property index average of residential property index by 15 cities in indonesia. base point bi ltrans stock transaction volume (log) amount of stock transaction value in indonesia stock exchange. rp bilion ➔% bps vk general banking credit volume amount of loan realization by general commercial bank. rp bilion ojk pratiwik & prajanti rupiah exchange rate: the determinants and impact of shocks on the economy jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 108 in the ardl method, hypothesis testing was done by looking at the direction of the statistical coefficient (positive or negative), if the result is contrary to the established hypothesis, it means the null hypothesis (h0) is accepted. next, the level of significance decided from the probability (prob) value of the statistical results of the data processing. if the p value is <0.05 then the result is that the effect has a significant probability. models with blue (best linear unbiased estimation) criteria in ardl were obtained through some of the stages, starting from stationarity tests (with the augmented dickey fuller approach unit root test), classic assumption tests (autocorrelation and multicollinearity), bound testing, model selection (akaike information criteria approach), ardl estimation, and model stability tests (cusum and cusum square test). the mathematical model used was: 𝑁𝑇𝑡 = ∑ 𝛼1. 𝑁𝑇𝑡−𝑖 𝑛 𝑖=0 + ∑ 𝛼2. 𝐼𝑁𝐹𝑡−𝑖 𝑛 𝑖=0 + ∑ 𝛼3. 𝐿𝐽𝑈𝐵𝑡−𝑖 𝑛 𝑖=0 + ∑ 𝛼4. 𝑂𝑃𝑇𝑡−𝑖 𝑛 𝑖=0 + ∑ 𝛼5. 𝐿𝐶𝐷𝑡−𝑖 𝑛 𝑖=0 + ∑ 𝛼6. 𝐿𝐸𝐻𝑈𝑡−𝑖 + ∑ 𝛼7. 𝑆𝐵𝑡−𝑖 𝑛 𝑖=0 + 𝐶𝑡 𝑛 𝑖=0 + 𝜀𝑡 (1) however, if the bound test results showed cointegration (the value of i(1) is greater than i(0)) then the model that must be used was ardl-ecm, namely ardl which was divided into long-run and short-run, with the following mathematical model: ∆𝑁𝑇𝑡 = ∑ 𝛽1. ∆𝐼𝑁𝐹𝑡−𝑖 + 𝑛 𝑖=0 ∑ 𝛽2. ∆𝐿𝐽𝑈𝐵𝑡−𝑖 + 𝑛 𝑖=0 ∑ 𝛽3. ∆𝑂𝑃𝑇𝑡−𝑖 + 𝑛 𝑖=0 ∑ 𝛽4. ∆𝐿𝐶𝐷𝑡−𝑖 + 𝑛 𝑖=0 ∑ 𝛽5. ∆𝐿𝐸𝐻𝑈𝑡−𝑖 + 𝑛 𝑖=0 ∑ 𝛽6. ∆𝑆𝐵𝑡−𝑖 + 𝑛 𝑖=0 𝐶𝑜𝑖𝑛𝑡𝐸𝑞. (𝑁𝑇 − (𝛼1. 𝐼𝑁𝐹 + 𝛼2. 𝐿𝐽𝑈𝐵𝑡−1 + 𝛼3. 𝑂𝑃𝑇𝑡−1 + 𝛼4. 𝐿𝐶𝐷𝑡−1 + 𝛼5. 𝐿𝐸𝐻𝑈𝑡−1 + 𝛼6. 𝑆𝐵𝑡−1 + 𝐶𝑡 + 𝜀𝑡 (2) where: ∑ 𝑖s the influence period of the variable,𝑛𝑖 𝛽1 to 𝛽6 is the short-run coefficient of the variable, 𝐶𝑜𝑖𝑛𝑡𝐸𝑞 is the speed of adjustment of the model, 𝛼1 to 𝛼6 is the long-run coefficient of each variable, c is the constant of the model , and ε is the error term. next, the var method was carried out procedurally starting from the stationarity test, choosing the optimum lag, var stability test, causality test (granger approach), var model estimation, analysis of impulse response function (irf), and finished with forecast error variance decomposition (fevd) analysis. the var mathematical model used in this study, was: 𝑁𝑇𝑡 = ∑ 𝛼1. 𝑁𝑇𝑡−𝑖 𝑛 𝑖=0 + ∑ 𝛼2. 𝐿𝐸𝐻𝑈𝑡−𝑖 𝑛 𝑖=0 + ∑ 𝛼3. 𝑃𝐼𝐻𝑃𝑅𝑡−𝑖 𝑛 𝑖=0 + ∑ 𝛼4. 𝐿𝑇𝑅𝐴𝑁𝑆𝑡−𝑖 𝑛 𝑖=0 + ∑ 𝛼5. 𝑉𝐾𝑡−𝑖 𝑛 𝑖=0 + 𝜀𝑡 (3) the research hypothesis regarding the impact of exchange rate (er) shocks was proven by examining each variable's movement response (up or down) in the irf analysis. meanwhile, the significance of the effect between variables was seen by comparing the t statistic with the t table. the stationarity test is crucial in research with time series data. this test serves as a step that is able to show the stability of data changes. data that is not stationary has the potential to produce an invalid model. then, the basic assumption that must be met in pratiwik & prajanti rupiah exchange rate: the determinants and impact of shocks on the economy jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 109 ardl is that data cannot be stationary at the 2nd difference level. in addition, the stationarity test also serves as a determination of the proper use of the model in the var method. when the data is stationary at levels, then the var model can be used, but data that is only stationary at the 1st difference level must be continued with a cointegration test and estimated using the vector error correction model (vecm). result and discussion determinants of exchange rate analysis of the exchange rate determinants using ardl began with the data stationarity test. the result of test using the augmented dickey fuller (adf) unit root test showed that the exchange rate (nt) and expected inflation (lehu) variables were stationary at the level (probability value less than 0.05), while at the 1st difference all variables were stationary. these results can be interpreted that all variables can be used in the ardl method, where the main requirement was that the data must be stationary at the level and/or 1st difference. table 2 result of stationary testing on ardl data by adf test prob. value variable nt inf ljub opt lcd lehu sb level 0.0371* 0.1511 0.7489 0.9998 0.3380 0.0011* 0.5602 1st difference 0.0000* 0.0000* 0.0000* 0.0000* 0.0000* 0.0000* 0.0000* *p-value <0.05 next, a classical assumption test was performed to ensure that the data produces a blue model. the normality test is not required to do on data with more than 30 (n) observations, because it fulfills the assumptions of central limit theorem. the heteroscedasticity test also not required considering that the study location (cross section) is only 1. therefore, the classic assumption test that was carried out were autocorrelation and multicollinearity. the results shown in table 3 can be interpreted that variable formulation of ardl model clear of classical assumption problems. table 3 result of classical asumption testing autocorrelation multicolinearity method threshold result variable measurement threshold result lm test prob. chi square <0.05 0.0712 (no autocorrelation) inf variance inflation factor (vif) centered vif <10 3.2977 no multicolinearity ljub 2.3091 opt 1.8261 lcd 1.3253 lehu 6.1620 sb 7.3349 pratiwik & prajanti rupiah exchange rate: the determinants and impact of shocks on the economy jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 110 the bound test is a cointegration test approach used to ensure that all variables in the model have a long-run connection. the results of test in table 4 can be concluded that a long-run connection among variables occurred, because the i(1) bound value was greater than the i(0) bound value. after passing the stationarity test, classical assumption, and bound test, data processing can proceed to the ardl estimation step. table 4 result of bound test significance level i (0) bound i (1) bound 10% 2.12 3.23 5% 2.45 3.61 2.5% 2.75 3.99 1% 3.15 4.43 the selected ardl model (based on the aic graph) is 1,0,1,0,2,4,0 orde (has the smallest aic value). however, because the results of the bound test reveal that cointegration occurred, the model must be further broken down into short run and long run (ardlecm). the results are showed in table 5. figure 3 result of model selection test in the short run, the inflation (inf) variable had a significant positive effect on exchange rate (nt). it means that the increase of inflation affects the depreciation in the exchange rate. in the long run, % increase in inflation (inf) of 1% led to depreciation of the exchange rate (nt) by 12,616.80 idr/usd. the long-run coefficient of the inflation (inf) variable was greater than the short-run coefficient, meaning that if inflation consistently increased in the long run, the coefficient of depreciation experienced by the exchange rate will also increase. these results proved that statistically, hypothesis 1 was accepted. the money supply (ljub) variable in the short run and long run had a significant positive effect. if the pratiwik & prajanti rupiah exchange rate: the determinants and impact of shocks on the economy jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 111 volume of money supply increases, the exchange rate will depreciate, but the depreciation rate in the long run was smaller than in the short run. this can be observed from the magnitude of the variable coefficient. these results can be concluded that hypothesis 2 of the study could be accepted. expected inflation (lehu) in the short-run (in the previous 3 periods) had a significant negative effect on the exchange rate (nt), while in the long-run the effect was actually a significant positive one. when the expected inflation in the previous 3 periods were at a good level (high index), the exchange rate for the next 3 months (current period) will appreciate. table 5 result of ardl estimation short-run long-run variable coefficient s.e prob. variable coefficient s.e prob. ∆inf 6,291.57 2,998.78 0.0388** inf 12,616.80 6,082.73 0.0411** ∆ljub 12,109.77 2,020.69 0.0000* ljub 7,567.23 832.86 0.0000* ∆opt -0.81 0.26 0.0025* opt -1.62 0.45 0.0005* ∆lcd -7,456.24 1,205.07 0.0000* lcd -9,738.13 1,698.19 0.0000* ∆lcdt-1 -1,894.48 1,192.56 0.1158 ∆lehu 665.91 470.10 0.1602 lehu 2,948.81 930.17 0.0021* ∆lehut-1 827.50 600.92 0.1721 ∆lehut-2 -313.75 592.73 0.5979 ∆lehut-3 -1,096.21 453.25 0.0177** ∆sb -106.41 50.40 0.0376** sb -213.39 101.28 0.0380** cointeq(1) -0.4986 0.08 0.0000* c -18,888.31 7,075.49 0.0091* *significance at 0.01; **significance at 0.05 meanwhile, expected inflation that was continuously high in the long run will actually result in exchange rate depreciation. the coefficient of expected inflation effect was in accordance with the established hypothesis 3, but the short-run coefficient was not appropriate. this happened because rising expected inflation in the short-run will lower consumption because people are on the alert for future price increases. consumption of products with high prices, such as imported products, is also affected. if the interest in imported products decreases, the volume of imports will also run in harmony, so the exchange rate is getting strenghten in the short run. in the theory of aggregate demand-supply, if a country does not adhere to a sticky price system, then in the long run the condition of economy will return to a balance point even though the price level is higher than before. this is due to economic improvements (policies) that encourage stability on the aggregate demand side, for example through increasing wages or reducing tax rates. the interest rate (sb) variable statistically had a significant negative effect in the short and long run. from these statistical results, it can be said that an increase of interest rates will encourage exchange rate appreciation, and the amount of appreciation will improve in the long-run. the results of research on the interest rate variable in this topic were pratiwik & prajanti rupiah exchange rate: the determinants and impact of shocks on the economy jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 112 statistically in accordance with the established hypothesis 4. furthermore, the foreign exchange reserves (lcd) variable produced a significant negative effect coefficient for the long-run and short-run, but the foreign exchange reserved in the previous period had an insignificant influence probability. this condition can be interpreted that the higher of foreign exchange reserves held by the monetary authorities, the more exchange rate will appreciate. in the long-run, if the foreign exchange reserves increase, the exchange rate will appreciate significantly. this result is in accordance with the hypothesis that had been set (hypothesis 5). next, open market operations (opt) had a negative influence coefficient with a significant probability for both the short-run and the long-run. these results indicated that the exchange rate will appreciate when the open market operation intervenes (increases the volume of rupiah in the foreign exchange market). from these results, it can be concluded that hypothesis 6 could be accepted. the magnitude of the exchange rate appreciation in the long-run was stronger when compared to the short-run. -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 cusum 5% significance -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 cusum of squares 5% significance figure 4 result of ardl stability test the short-run model had a speed of adjustment of -0.4986. that is, the short-run model will reach a long-run balance at a rate of 49.86% per month. next, the stability test of the ardl model using cusum and cusum square test shows that the model was proven to be stable and can be used for the long-run because the cusum value was within the 5% significance (red line) area. from the data processing that had been done, the ardl model produced in this study is: ∆𝑁𝑇𝑡 = 6,291.57 . ∆𝐼𝑁𝐹𝑡 + 12,109.77 . ∆𝐿𝐽𝑈𝐵𝑡 − 0.81 . ∆𝑂𝑃𝑇𝑡 − 7,456.24 . ∆𝐿𝐶𝐷𝑡 − 1,894.48 . ∆𝐿𝐶𝐷𝑡−1 + 665.91 . ∆𝐿𝐸𝐻𝑈𝑡 + 827.50 . ∆𝐿𝐸𝐻𝑈𝑡−1 − 313.75 . ∆𝐿𝐸𝐻𝑈𝑡−2 − 1,096.21 . ∆𝐿𝐸𝐻𝑈𝑡−3 − 106.41 . ∆𝑆𝐵𝑡 + 49.86%. (𝑁𝑇 − (12,616.80 . 𝐼𝑁𝐹 + 7,567.23 . 𝐿𝐽𝑈𝐵𝑡−1 − 1.62 . 𝑂𝑃𝑇𝑡−1 − 9,738.13 . 𝐿𝐶𝐷𝑡−1 + 2,948.81 . 𝐿𝐸𝐻𝑈𝑡−1 − 213.39. 𝑆𝐵𝑡−1 − 18,888.31 + 𝜀𝑡 (4) pratiwik & prajanti rupiah exchange rate: the determinants and impact of shocks on the economy jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 113 impacts of exchange rate shocks the impact analysis on shocks of exchange rate (nt) to the variables of expected inflation (lehu), residential property index (pipr), stock transaction volume (ltrans), and general banking credit volume (vk) using the var method also began with a stationarity test. the unit root test result (table 6) showed that every variables were stationary at the levels. this condition allowed the use of the var model and did not need to do the cointegration test. table 6 result of stationary testing on var data by adf test prob. value variable nt lehu pihpr ltrans vk level 0.0294** 0.0078* 0.0269** 0.0000* 0.0103* 1st difference 0.0000* 0.0000* 0.0000* 0.0000* 0.7623 *p-value <0.01; **p-value <0.05 table 7 result of lag optimum selection lag logl lr fpe aic sc hq 0 -1,895.08 na 71,100,000,000 39.17687 39.30958 39.23053 1 -1,522.54 698.9942 54,980,033* 32.01108* 32.80738* 32.33306* 2 -1,506.25 28.88703 66,065,494 32.19064 33.65053 32.78095 3 -1,487.45 31.3899 75,860,083 32.31858 34.44205 33.17721 4 -1,456.37 48.71270 68,237,698 32.19309 34.98014 33.32003 5 -1,432.56 34.84605 72,238,543 32.21776 35.6684 33.61303 6 -1,419.06 18.37882 96,145,436 32.45476 36.56899 34.11835 7 -1,396.78 28.01927 109,000,000 32.51089 37.2887 34.4428 8 -1,374.19 26.07925 126,000,000 32.56065 38.00205 34.76089 *selected optimum lag after the stationarity test, the next step was to specify the optimum lag which was selected from the smallest value of aic. table 7 shows that the optimum lag in this model was lag 1. the stability test of the var model was carried out by looking at the modulus value of the auto regressive (ar) root. the model can be said to be stable if the modulus value < 1. table 8 shows that the modulus generated by ar root ranges from 0.06 – 0.99. from these results, it can be avowed that the var model used was stable. table 8 result of var stability model root modulus 0.998110 0.99811 0.761425 + 0.042978i 0.762637 0.761425 + 0.042978i 0.762637 0.356666 – 0.371321i 0.514869 0.356666 + 0.371321i 0.514869 0.412662 – 0.232676i 0.473739 0.412662 + 0.232676i 0.473739 -0.31297 0.312969 -0.19053 0.190532 -0.06789 0.067893 pratiwik & prajanti rupiah exchange rate: the determinants and impact of shocks on the economy jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 114 the granger causality test showed that all variables did not have two-way connection (cause and effect), but there was one-way connection from exchange rate (nt) to stock transaction volume (ltans), then banking credit volume (vk) to exchange rate, also banking credit volume to stock transaction volume. this conclusion was obtained from the f statistic p-value which was smaller than the 5% significance level (0.05). after passing the stationarity test, choosing the optimum lag, and granger causality test, the var model can be estimated. the estimation results of the var model at lag 1 can be interpreted that current condition (period) of exchange rate (ntt) is formed from the positive conditions of the exchange rate itself in the previous period (ntt-1), as well as the positive conditions of the expected inflation, residential property prices index, and banking credit volume variables in the previous period (lehut-1, pihprt-1, and vkt-1). in addition, the negative condition of the stock transaction volume in the previous period (ltranst-1)also had an impact. among the 5 variables in the var model, which contributed significantly to the current condition of the exchange rate were the exchange rate itself, and expected inflation, and banking credit volume. table 9 result of granger causality test variable f. statistics prob.value nt lehu pihpr ltrans vk nt 0.7881 0.8068 0.0278** 0.1540 lehu 0.6489 0.3933 0.4048 0.3179 pihpr 0.9957 0.7156 0.5657 0.5054 ltrans 0.1449 0.9051 0.9494 0.0700*** vk 0.0023* 0.8349 0.7959 0.0002* *p-value <0.01; **p-va;ue <0.05; ***p-value <0,1 after passing the stationarity test, choosing the optimum lag, and granger causality test, the var model can be estimated. the estimation results of the var model at lag 1 can be interpreted that current condition (period) of exchange rate (ntt) was formed from the positive conditions of the exchange rate itself in the previous period (ntt-1), as well as the positive conditions of the expected inflation, residential property prices index, and banking credit volume variables in the previous period (lehut-1, pihprt-1, and vkt-1). in addition, the negative condition of the stock transaction volume in the previous period (ltranst-1)also had an impact. among the 5 variables in the var model that contributed significantly to the current condition of the exchange rate were the exchange rate itself, expected inflation, and banking credit volume. from the data processing that has been done, the formed of var model is: 𝑁𝑇𝑡 = 0.74 . 𝑁𝑇𝑡−1 + 527.14 . 𝐿𝐸𝐻𝑈𝑡−1 + 470.37 . 𝑃𝐼𝐻𝑃𝑅𝑡−1 − 11.93 . 𝐿𝑇𝑅𝐴𝑁𝑆𝑡−1 + 0.74 . 𝑉𝐾𝑡−1 + 𝜀𝑡 (5) after estimating the var model, the impact of shocks on exchange rate (nt) can be seen by looking at the responses of other variables to the shocks that occur to them (figure 4). the banking credit volume (vk) variable shows a negative (decreasing) response to exchange rate shocks. these results are in accordance with the established hypothesis pratiwik & prajanti rupiah exchange rate: the determinants and impact of shocks on the economy jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 115 (hypothesis 7). banking credit volume response had been moving for 15 months, after that, the reponse looked stable and did not approach point 0, so it can be interpreted that exchange rate shocks had a long-run impact on banking credit volume. next, the residential property prices index (pihpr) response to exchange rate shocks was negative (decreasing). from these results, it can be concluded that hypothesis 8 was proven. this response lasted for 7 months, then in 8th to 24th month it looked close to point 0. it means that shocks in the exchange rate did not leave a long-run impact on the residential property price index variable. table 10 result of var estimation variable nt lehu pihpr ltrans vk nt (-1) (s.e) [t stat] 0.737444 (0.06887) [10.7080]* 0.000006 (0.000012) [0.49946] 0.000002 (0.000006) [0.29499] 0.00001 (0.000044) [0.22635] -16.8799 (11.2122) [-1.50549] lehu (-1) (s.e) [t stat] 527.1357 (264.585) [1.99231]* 0.880359 (0.04801) [18.338]* -0.017861 (0.02297) [-0.77771] 0.468425 (0.168160) [2.78553]* 12,321.85 (43,076) [0.28605] pihpr (-1) (s.e) [t stat] 470.3657 (889.31) [0.52891] 0.064927 (0.16136) [0.40238] 0.633724 (0.07719) [0.78737] 0.553937 (0.5622) [0.98003] -62,568.12 (144,785) [-0.43215] ltrans (-1) (s.e) [t stat] -11.93128 (105.362) [-0.11324] 0.048801 (0.019120) [2.55274]* 0.007201 (0.00915) [0.78737] 0.766728 (0.06697) [11.4496]* 14,076 (17,153.6) [0.82059] vk (-1) (s.e) [t stat] 0.737444 (0.06887) [10.7080]* 0.000006 (0.000012) [0.49946] 0.000002 (0.000006) [0.29499] 0.00001 (0.000044) [0.22635] -16.8799 (11.2122) [-1.50549] r square 0.8590 0.5037 0.4202 0.6376 0.9957 *t-stat <t-table(1.98304) the stock transaction volume (ltans) variable showed a positive response to shocks that occurred in exchange rates. these results proved that hypothesis 9 was accepted. the response movement lasted for 10 months. after that, in months 11 – 24, this response looked stable and did not approach 0 point, meaning that shocks to exchange rates left a long-run impact on stock transaction volume. expected inflation (lehu) showed an increasing response. from these results, it was evident that hypothesis 10 can be accepted. the rising response from the expected inflation variable moved for 14 months, after that until the 24th month it tended to be stable and consistent at a positive coefficient but did not seem to be getting closer to 0 point. this could mean that shocks that occurred in the exchange rate left an impact (response) that lasted in the long run for the expected inflation variable. after analyzing the response of each variable to shocks that occur in the exchange rate, the next step is to analyze changes in the composition of the variance of each variable. in other words, what will be done at this stage was to look at the variables that had the most major role in the movement of the variable itself and other variables. in the 24-month forecasting, the movement of the exchange rate appears to be dominated by itself, followed by expected inflation, stock transaction volume, banking credit volume, and residential property prices index. the contribution of the exchange rate to its own pratiwik & prajanti rupiah exchange rate: the determinants and impact of shocks on the economy jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 116 movement over the next 24 months was seen to have decreased to 56.59% from the previous 100%. this was inversely proportional to the other 4 variables, where the contribution seemed to be increasing. the contribution from residential property prices index had seen an increase in the 12th month, but in the 24th month it had decreased compared to the 12th month. figure 5 graph of impulse response function movement of expected inflation was also seen to be dominated by itself, followed by stock transaction volume, exchange rates, residential property prices index, and banking credit volume. except exchange rate, the decreases magnitude in the contribution of expected inflation to itself appearred to be the most significant when compared to the contribution movement achieved by other variables. expected inflation's contribution to the movement remained at 69.61% from the previous 99.42% in the first forecasting period and 76.82% in the 12th forecasting period. the exchange rate seemed to have contributed to the movement of expected inflation since the first forecasted period . next, the movement of residential property prices index was very self-dominated, even in the 24th month of forecasting, the contribution rate was still at 96.21%. however, the movement of this variable had been influenced by the exchange rate and expected inflation since the first period of forecasting. the variable that contributed the second largest after the residential property prices index was expected inflation, followed by stock transaction volume, exchange rate, and banking credit volume. the movement of stock transaction volume was dominated by itself, but also influenced by exchange rates, expected inflation, and residential property prices index since the first month of forecasting. in the 24th period, expected inflation appearred to play an pratiwik & prajanti rupiah exchange rate: the determinants and impact of shocks on the economy jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 117 important role in the movement of stock transaction volume. this can be seen from its contribution which increased dramatically to 39.20% from the previous 0.99% in 1st and 27.98% in 12th month. table 11 result of forecast error variance decomposition (fevd) variable period s.e nt lehu pihpr ltrans vk nt 1 348.3810 100.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 12 621.8607 78.2253 13.0354 0.6628 4.9624 3.1141 24 739.2958 56.5857 22.1659 0.6315 14.4504 6.1665 lehu 1 0.0632 0.5821 99.4179 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 12 0.1886 1.7510 76.8200 0.6729 20.6941 0.0621 24 0.2583 2.3517 69.6100 1.0743 26.9213 0.0428 pihpr 1 0.0302 0.5467 0.9218 98.5313 0.0000 0.0000 12 0.0394 0.7961 1.8992 96.2325 1.0245 0.0476 24 0.0394 0.7993 1.9016 96.2113 1.0267 0.0611 ltrans 1 0.2214 0.8152 0.9916 1.7707 96.4225 0.0000 12 0.4782 1.3386 27.9781 1.2269 68.9480 0.5083 24 0.6174 2.0923 39.1988 1.2187 56.4057 1.0845 vk 1 56,718.41 21.9145 2.4751 0.0676 0.0579 75.4849 12 182,716.40 5.6445 1.0113 0.5660 4.9432 87.8350 24 254,402,00 3.2076 0.5570 0.6361 8.4086 87.1906 changes or movements that occurred in banking credit volume also appear to be dominated by itself. unlike the other variables whose contribution was getting weaker on its own, credit volume actually showed strengthening. the first month of forecasting, the contribution of banking credit volume to the itself movement was 75.48%, this figure had increased to 87.83% in the 12th month, and showed a slight decrease in the 24th month to 87.19%. the reverse condition was experienced by the exchange rate and expected inflation, where the longer the forecasting period, the weaker its contribution to the movement of banking credit volume. after analyzing the results of data processing related to the determinants of exchange rates and the impact of shocks, a summary of the results of hypothesis testing was obtained (table 12). table 12 resume of hypothesis testing result h1 h2 h3 h4 h5 h6 h7 h8 h9 h10 short-run ** ** * ** ** ** ** ** ** ** long-run ** ** ** ** ** ** ** *** ** ** *accepted h0 **rejected h0 *** no response in long-run discussion exchange rate stability is the main thing that must be maintained to achieve economic stability. the stronger monetary authority's ability to maintain exchange rate stability, the impact of shocks can be minimized and immediately handled. the weakening condition that occurs in the exchange rate is called depreciation. the greater nominal value of the rupiah that must be exchanged for foreign currency means that the exchange rate is pratiwik & prajanti rupiah exchange rate: the determinants and impact of shocks on the economy jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 118 depreciating. every discussion regarding the movement of exchange rate conditions (appreciation and depreciation) traced from any sector will focus on liquidity or the quantity of money. in this study, it appears that the variable that has the greatest influence on the appreciation (depreciation) of the exchange rate in the short-run is money supply. these results support research from funashima (2020), gong et al. (2022), and yulianti (2014). in the long-run, the coefficient of money supply influence is smaller and even lower than inflation, where both of them result in depreciation. the finding that inflation also causes exchange rate depreciation is in line with the results of research from bato et al. (2017), dan chandrarin et al. (2022). money supply and inflation are two variables that have a causal relationship (sarker & wang, 2022), so their effect on the exchange rate is also aligned. under the theory of money quantity, if the volume of money supply in society increases, the ability of people to pay for products (or consume) will be higher and the equilibrium price level will increase. in the long-run this can be said as inflation. when the domestic economy experiences inflation, the price of domestic goods (and services) becomes more expensive and imported products appear cheaper so that the level of demand increases. the higher demand for imported products will increase the quantity of imports. if it continues, this will have an impact on the increasing number of rupiah currency that must be exchanged into usd so that the exchange rate depreciates. in international trade, this increase in import volume has the potential to cause a defisit on balance of payment (bop). the export side is difficult to encourage when there is inflation because the production costs that must be incurred are higher, so the price of the output produced also rises. the high cost of these export products has weakened indonesia's competitiveness in the global market. therefore, the effect of inflation in the long run is greater when compared to money supply because inflation creates a complex domino effect both domestically and internationally, while money supply tends to have more influence on the domestic side. the changes of the money supply is also related to expected inflation. when expectations for general goods in the future rise, expected inflation will be high. in the consumer behavior theory, price is the main variable that influences preferences, given the limited budget to achieve the highest satisfaction. in the very short-run, high expected inflation will shift the pattern of shifting consumption from domestic products to imported products, thus driving the depreciation of the exchange rate. however, when the exchange rate continues to depreciate, the price of imported products becomes more expensive and people will return to consuming domestic products so that the exchange rate is getting appreciated in the short run. moreover, an increase of expected inflation could also be caused by an increase of money supply. the high money supply will be followed by increased demand for goods and services so that production sectors will be encouraged. in the long-run, if it is assumed that there will be no additional production input factor capabilities from the domestic market, then the production sector must fulfill these input factors from the global market through imports. the increase in imports to meet the production input factors will result in a depreciation of the exchange rate. the findings in this research are in line with the results that have been researched by herkenhoff and sauré (2021) dan lee & kim (2019). pratiwik & prajanti rupiah exchange rate: the determinants and impact of shocks on the economy jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 119 next, exchange rate stability can be carried out by direct intervention by the central bank through open market operations and foreign exchange reserves. regarding open market operations and foreign exchange reserves, the findings from this study support the results of research from carli & gomis-porqueras (2021), chanda et al. (2020), ito & mccauley (2020), rocheteau et al. (2018) and uz akdogan (2020). open market operations will affect the exchange rate from both the regulation of rupiah liquidity and direct intervention in the foreign exchange market. the injection of rupiah open market operations can encourage banking power to access more funds so that the high level of demand for credit can be offset. this condition reflects the increasing ease of access to capital for the production side so that the country's ability to produce higher output. when there is an increase in output, it can be interpreted that the ability to meet domestic demand increases so that imports can be suppressed. increased capital for production sectors has the potential to boost the ability to export as well. these two conditions make the rupiah currency that must be exchanged into usd smaller and the international balance of payments (bop) will be in surplus. this causes the strengthening (appreciation) of the exchange rate. the surplus balance of payments will be accommodated by foreign exchange reserves. the greater surplus in the bop, the foreign exchange reserves will increase. foreign exchange reserves are a recapitulation of external liquid assets owned by the monetary authority and can be used whenever to intervene in exchange rates. high foreign exchange reserves reflect the great competitiveness of a country in carrying out trade and the ability to obtain capital in an international scope. on the other hand, high foreign exchange reserves also indicate the increasing power of the monetary authority to intervene in the country's currency. therefore, the higher of foreign exchange reserves will result in an appreciation of the exchange rate both in the short and long-run. the results of data processing show that, in the long-run model, a 1% growth in foreign exchange reserves will strengthen the exchange rate by 9,738.13 idr/usd. domestically, the strength of the exchange rate which is highly dependent on money supply and inflation can be interpreted as having a close relationship with the movement of interest rates. in this study, it appears that the effect of interest rates on exchange rates is negative (appreciation). these results support research from elias et al. (2022), kilian and zhou (2022), and ulm & hambuckers (2022). even though they both cause exchange rate appreciation, the coefficient of influence produced by interest rates is smaller when compared to foreign exchange reserves because it requires a longer time lag. interest rates can affect exchange rate movements through the banking sector and capital markets. when the interest rate rises, people will be interested in making savings so that the collected bank's fund will increase. this implies that the ability of banks to distribute funds (to meet credit demands) also increases. the higher number of realized loans means that the production sectors have the potential going to scale up. on the other hand, the increase in production sectors will also create an improved corporate portfolio climate in the capital market. this positive sentiment in the capital market has further encouraged the production side to develop so that the ability to participate in export activities has also increased. this is what causes exchange rate appreciation. pratiwik & prajanti rupiah exchange rate: the determinants and impact of shocks on the economy jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 120 an economy that adheres to a floating exchange rate regime means that the power of the monetary authority is not fully entitled of intervening in exchange rate stability. therefore shocks that occur in the exchange rate still have an impact on the economy, especially for the banking, property and capital market sectors. the banking sector is most affected by the volume of credit. this study shows that the defense's duration on credit volume response to exchange rate shocks is the longest compared to other variables. credit volumes decrease when exchange rate shocks occur. this happens because the depreciation of the exchange rate has the potential to cause inflation and the central bank will overcome this by increasing interest rates so that the money supply falls and the purchasing power of money is maintained (theory of money quantity). the increment in interest rates suppresses demand for credit because the amount to be paid will be higher. interest in this low demand for credit has resulted in the volume of banking credit realization also declining. this study's results align with the findings of fabiani et al. (2022) and yun and cho (2022). overcoming exchange rate shocks using this interest rate will also have an impact on the property sector. high interest rates and economic instability due to exchange rate shocks make people prefer to hold money with precautionary motives (liquidity preference theory). this motive is realized through an effective budget allocation where consumption will be reduced and diverted to saving. low public interest in consumption has forced the property sector to compensate by lowering prices so that its products can still be absorbed in the market. therefore, when an exchange rate shock occurs, property prices will respond negatively (decrease). however, many other factors (besides exchange rate shocks) affect prices in the property sector so that the impact caused by exchange rate shocks does not last in the long run. these results are in line with research from anastasia and hidayat (2019) and dąbrowski and wróblewska (2020). exchange rate shocks make the economy look unstable, so expected inflation will increase and negative sentiment from foreign investors in the capital market will occur. when foreign investors' interest in the capital market worsens, this creates a loophole for domestic investors to increase their portfolio investment holdings. therefore, the volume of stock transactions has actually increased. investors will assume that the return to be obtained in the future will be higher than the current purchase price. this assumption occurs because exchange rate shocks will certainly be handled by the central bank through the realization of policies to seek economic recovery. this finding is support the research result from ding (2021), huang et al. (2021), and sa’adah (2020). exchange rate shocks raise expected inflation due to unfavorable economic conditions which encourage people to assume that future prices will be more expensive due to economic instability due to exchange rate shocks. these results support research from anderl and caporale (2022) and lee and kim (2019). exchange rate stability should focused on controlling determinants and mitigating the impact of shocks. to control determinants, policies can be grouped into 2 sides, namely input and output. in this study, the variables that can be positioned as the input side are open market operations, foreign exchange reserves, and interest rates. in conditions where the exchange rate is depreciating, the injection type of rupiah open market pratiwik & prajanti rupiah exchange rate: the determinants and impact of shocks on the economy jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 121 operations can be carried out. some instruments that can be executed are the repo open market operations and the sale or purchase of sbn or outright sbsn. in addition to rupiah open market operations, monetary policy instruments that are more practical to implement are foreign currency open market operations, especially by spot intervence, forward, swap, and dndf (domestic non deliverable fund) transactions because they allow this to be done without an auction process. if the rupiah open market operations or foreign currency open market operations is still insufficient to overcome the depreciation of the exchange rate, the central bank has the right to intervene by guaranteeing a number of foreign exchange reserves to the central bank of the country associated with the weakening of the exchange rate, for example if the weakening occurs in the idr/usd exchange rate enact foreign exchange reserves guaranteed to the fed. the central bank will also offset this policy by controlling the macroeconomy in aggregate while maintaining the inflation rate. this condition will be controlled through regulation of interest rates. exchange rate depreciation can be overcome by increasing interest rates because this will have an impact on reducing money supply and a maintained inflation rate. next, the biggest exchange rate shock (on the banking credit volume), can be overcome by decreasing the countercyclical capital buffer (ccyb) or increasing short-run liquidity loans (pljp) for banks. a decrease in ccyb and an increase in pljp will maintain the financial system even though the economy is in a contractionary condition. the mechanism taken from the ccyb policy is to increase banking capital formation during an economic expansion. the proceeds from capital formation can be used when the economy is contracting, so that the financial system remains stable. the maintenance of financial system stability will also have an impact on maintained inflation expectations. when offset by setting high interest rates and positive morale, this decreased ccyb can also be used as a policy to overcome the impact of exchange rate shocks on stock transaction volume. the impact of exchange rate shocks on property prices can be increased by the loan to value or financing to value (ltv/ftv) ratio. the high ltv/ftv ratio allows collateral from debtors (in the form of property) to retain a high nominal value even though prices in the property sector are falling in line with the depreciation of the exchange rate. on the other hand, the high ltv/ftv ratio can also protect the production side of economic agents in the property sector. public interest in property products will be maintained because the value of these properties remains high when used for transactions in the banking sector. conclusion this study has presented a more complex analysis regarding the determinants of the rupiah exchange rate against the usd and the impact of shocks on it. the findings in this study have provided new contributions both theoretically and practically as well as able to illustrate comparisons of previews studies with the same topic. the data processing results regarding the determinants of the exchange rate using the ardl method show that most of the effect coefficients were in accordance with the established hypothesis. the variable that had the greatest effect on the depreciation of exchange rate in the pratiwik & prajanti rupiah exchange rate: the determinants and impact of shocks on the economy jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 122 short-run was money supply, while in the long-run was inflation. next, the variable that had the greatest influence on the appreciation of the exchange rate both in the long-run and in the short-run was foreign exchange reserves. the impact of exchange rate shocks lasted the longest on general banking credit volume, which was 15 months, followed by expected inflation for 14 months, stock transaction volume for 10 months, and residential property prices index for 7 months. the residential property prices index were the only variable with no long-run impact due to exchange rate shocks. the implication of the findings produced in this study is that a structured mechanism must be developed to maintain economic stability to balance exchange rate movements. maintaining exchange rate stability by considering interventions through monetary policy instruments is the main thing that must be done to minimize the adverse effects of shocks. the regime that adheres to a floating exchange rate system presents the consequence that the stability of the exchange rate cannot be overcome only through the intervention of the domestic monetary authority, apart from that many other exogenous factors influence it. therefore, the impact of exchange rate shocks must still be overcome, one of which is through macroprudential policies. policy recommendations (suggestions) that can be proposed are in accordance with the findings: exchange rate stability can be maintained through a maintained inflation rate. the policy taken must be in accordance with the conditions encountered. open market operations injection can be carried out when the exchange rate depreciates. this is the most practical open market operations because open market operations is the only monetary policy that can be implemented daily. if the exchange rate is still depreciating, it can be offset by raising the interest rate and using the foreign exchange reserves intervention. however, this condition has the consequence of a decrease in the intensity of economic activity because liquidity of money supply will be absorbed. the use of foreign exchange reserves also has the consequence that the deficit in the international balance of payments must be minimized considering that the role of foreign exchange reserves is not only to exchange rates intervene, but also to finance bop deficits. exchange rate intervention through proper control of interest rates, foreign exchange reserves, and open market operations will have a domino effect, namely maintaining expected inflation, in the end money supply conditions and inflation can be maintained. exchange rate shocks to property prices can be overcome with a loan to value or financing to value (ltv/ftv) ratio policy. next, the impact on banking credit volume and expected inflation can be overcome through countercyclical capital buffer (ccyb) policies and short-run liquidity loans (pljp). the impact on stock transaction volume can be pursued by setting interest rates and moral situation to influence the ability and preferences of domestic investors. the limitations of this research situated the focus of discussion which tends to the specific scope of the monetary sector and the international economy, while the determinants and impacts of exchange rate movements are not limited to the monetary sector but the macroeconomy as a whole. therefore, subsequent studies on similar topics will be refined by including more complete macrovariables so that the discussion and proposed policy 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(2021). can interest rate factors explain exchange rate fluctuations? journal of empirical finance, 61, 34–56. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2021.01.005 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105783 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2021.01.005 image (2).jpg image (3).jpg image (4).jpg image (5).jpg image (6).jpg image (7).jpg image (8).jpg image (9).jpg image (10).jpg image (11).jpg image (12).jpg image (13).jpg image (14).jpg image (15).jpg image (16).jpg image (17).jpg image (18).jpg image (19).jpg image (20).jpg image (21).jpg image (22).jpg image (23).jpg image (24).jpg image (25).jpg image (26).jpg image (27).jpg image (28).jpg image (29).jpg studi efektivitas pelayanan publik di kecamatan kejaksan kota cirebon jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 1, april 2016, hlm. 46-54 doi: 10.18196/jesp.17.1.3497 optimalisasi fungsi intermediasi perbankan syariah berbasis sektoral di era otonomi daerah muh rudi nugroho prodi ekonomi syariah febi uin sunan kalijaga laksda adisucipto, caturtunggal, kec. depok, kabupaten sleman, daerah istimewa yogyakarta 55281 e-mail korespondensi: muhrudi82@gmail.com naskah diterima: desember 2015; disetujui: maret 2016 abstract: this study aims to analyze by simulating the growth of islamic banking if synergy with state agencies/areas of financial management. in this simulation, third-party funds proxied by 10% of the provincial budget funds (apbd). using regression analysis, 10% of funds allocated apdb implications for the development of the province of islamic banking, which is measured by the amount of credit distribution. this condition indicates that optimization of the islamic banking intermediation function can be conducted based sector in the era of regional autonomy, because it has mulplier effect, both on islamic banking and government. by sector, the nine sector contributed to provincial gdp will increase along with the increase in islamic banking credit distribution. on the other hand, the increase in deposits will have a positive impact on gdp rising in some sectors. to support the optimization process of islamic banking intermediation, the islamic banking should be directed to investment banks, so that islamic banking and regional development in the era of regional autonomy can be run together. this research is expected to contribute to the financial management of the country/region that has implications for the development of islamic banking, through the regulation of the ministry of finance and bank indonesia. keywords: autonomy, islamic banking, local government, intermediation, and the investment bank. jel classification: f43, p45 abstrak: penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dengan mensimulasikan pertumbuhan perbankan syariah jika bersinergi dengan lembaga / bidang manajemen keuangan negara. dalam simulasi ini, dana pihak ketiga diproklamasikan sebesar 10% dari dana anggaran provinsi (apbd). dengan menggunakan analisis regresi, 10% dana dialokasikan untuk implikasi apdb terhadap perkembangan perbankan syariah, yang diukur dengan jumlah penyaluran kredit. kondisi ini mengindikasikan bahwa optimalisasi fungsi intermediasi perbankan syariah dapat dilakukan berbasis sektor pada era otonomi daerah, karena memiliki efek mulplier, baik pada perbankan syariah maupun pemerintah. secara sektoral, sembilan sektor berkontribusi terhadap pdb provinsi akan meningkat seiring dengan meningkatnya penyaluran kredit perbankan syariah. di sisi lain, kenaikan simpanan akan berdampak positif terhadap kenaikan pdb di beberapa sektor. untuk menunjang proses optimalisasi intermediasi perbankan syariah, perbankan syariah harus diarahkan ke bank investasi, sehingga perbankan syariah dan pembangunan daerah di era otonomi daerah dapat berjalan bersama. penelitian ini diharapkan dapat memberikan kontribusi terhadap pengelolaan keuangan negara / kawasan yang berimplikasi pada perkembangan perbankan syariah, melalui peraturan menteri keuangan dan bank indonesia. kata kunci: otonomi, perbankan syariah, pemerintah daerah, intermediasi, dan bank investasi. klasifikasi jel: f43, p45 optimalisasi fungsi intermediasi perbankan syariah… (muh rudi nugroho) 47 pendahuluan perbankan syariah mengalami pertumbuhan yang cukup signifikan dari tahun ke tahun. hingga juni 2015, tercatat sebanyak 12 bank umum syariah (bus), dengan jumlah jaringan kantor bank mencapai 2,121; 22 unit usaha syariah (uus), dengan jumlah jaringan kantor bank mencapai 327; serta 161 bank pembiayaaan rakyat syariah (bprs), dengan jumlah jaringan kantor bank mencapai 433, sehingga seluruh jaringan kantor pusat, kantor cabang, kantor cabang pembantu, dan kantor kas mencapai 2,881 unit (bi, 2015). indikator internal perbankan syariah per juni 2015 antara lain; financing to deposit ratio (fdr) rata-rata sebesar 96,52% jauh lebih tinggi dari pada bank konvensional dengan loan to deposit ratio (ldr) rata-rata sebesar 87,3%. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa fungsi intermediary di bank syariah dapat berjalan lebih baik dari bank konvensional. untuk risiko kredit macet non performing loan (npl) atau di dalam bank syariah dinamakan non performing finance (npf), bank syariah lebih rendah yaitu sebesar 4,73% sedang bank konvensional sebesar 5,7%. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa kredit macet di bank syariah lebih kecil dari pada bank konvensional. roe perbankan syariah mencapai 7,98% dan roa sebesar 0.89% (bi, 2015). aset bank syariah di pertengahan tahun 2015 mampu tumbuh 9%; pembiayaan bank syariah tumbuh 6,6% dan penghimpunan dana pihak ketiga bank syariah tumbuh hingga 7,29%. angka pertumbuhan pada tiga indikator tersebut tergolong melemah dibandingkan pada saat yang sama di tahun 2014, dimana aset tumbuh 13%, pembiayaan tumbuh 8,76%, dan dpk tumbuh 11,41% (bi, 2015). perlambatan pertumbuhan perbankan syariah ini sejalan dengan perlambatan perumbuhan ekonomi nasional. kondisi ini menggambarkan banyaknya tantangan pertumbuhan perbankan syariah indonesia, sehingga konsep pengembangan berbasis sektoral dimungkinkan menjadi salah satu upaya penguatan pertumbuhan di era otonomi seperti saat ini. berkaitan dengan wewenang dalam konteks otonomi daerah, maka daerah otonom berhak mengurus urusan pemerintahanya yang tertulis pada pasal 12 uu no 32 tahun 2004. presiden selaku kepala pemerintahan memegang kekuasaan atas pengelolaan keuangan negara. presiden berfungsi sebagai chief executive officer (ceo) dan menteri keuangan berperan dan berfungsi sebagai chief financial officer (cfo) sedangkan menteri/pimpinan lembaga berperan sebagai chief operating officers (coo). hubungan tersebut tergambar pada lampiran 1. kementerian keuangan bertanggungjawab untuk mengelola pendapatan negara, pengeluaran negara dan aset negara melalui pengelolaan apbn. pada tahun 2013 apbn di atas rp 1.600 triliun, naik dua kali lipat dalam lima tahun terakhir. angka tersebut akan semakin membesar karena ekonomi indonesia tumbuh dengan amat baik, bahkan diramalkan banyak pengamat pada tahun 2030, indonesia akan menjadi ekonomi terbesar ke-6 di dunia. perjalanan bangsa kita 15-20 tahun lagi akan sangat krusial untuk menentukan langkah indonesia untuk menjadi negara maju yang berpendapatan tinggi dan berkeadilan sosial. momen ini membawa peluang pada perkembangan perbankan syariah, di mana bank indonesia sudah memfasilitasi dengan kerangka dual-banking system. hal ini berarti sistem perbankan syariah dan perbankan konvensional secara sinergis mendukung mobilisasi dana masyarakat secara lebih luas untuk meningkatkan kemampuan pembiayaan bagi sektor-sektor perekonomian nasional. mekanisme dapat direlisasikan dengan penyimpanan dana apbn/apbd di perbankan syariah, mengingat bahwa selama ini pengelolaan apbn/apbd full conventional banking. dari pemaparan di atas, guna merespon jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 1, april 2016: 45-54 48 perkembangan industri keuangan perbankan di era otonomi daerah, maka penelitian ini akan menganalisis dan mensimulasikan bagaimana pertumbuhan perbankan syariah jika terdapat sinergi antara perbankan syariah dengan lembaga-lembaga negara/daerah dalam pengelolaan keuangan negara/daerah. penelitian ini diharapkan dapat berkontribusi terhadap pengelolaan keuangan negara/ daerah yang berimplikasi pada perkembangan perbankan syariah, melalui regulasi. metode penelitian penelitian menggunakan data panel dalam tahunan kurun waktu tahun 2006 sampai dengan 2011 dari statistik perbankan syariah yang diterbitkan oleh bank indonesia dan laporan realisasi apbd provinsi. provinsi yang menjadi sampel dalam penelitian ini adalah provinsi yang di dalamnya sudah berdiri bank pembangunan daerah (bpd) syariah, dan terdapat sebanyak 15 provinsi sehingga jumlah observasinya 45. spesifikasi model spesifikasi model yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah sebagai berikut: model 1 model 2 di mana p : penyaluran pembiayaan di perbankan syariah (juta rupiah) pdrb : produk domestik regional bruto (juta rupiah) swbi : sertifikat wadian bank indonesia (juta rupiah) dpk : dpk diproksikan 10% dari total apbd provinsi (juta rupiah) jb : jumlah bpd syariah, termasuk kantor kas dan office channeling (unit) s1 : pdrb provinsi sektor pertanian (juta rupiah) s2 : pdrb provinsi sektor pertambangan dan penggalian (juta rupiah) s3 : pdrb provinsi sektor industri pengolahan (juta rupiah) s4 : pdrb provinsi sektor listrik, gas dan air bersih (juta rupiah) s5 : pdrb provinsi sektor konstruksi (juta rupiah) s6 : pdrb provinsi sektor perdagangan, hotel & restoran (juta rupiah) s7 : pdrb provinsi sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi (juta rupiah) s8 : pdrb provinsi sektor keuangan, persewaan & jasa perusahaan (juta rupiah) s9 : pdrb provinsi sektor jasa-jasa (juta rupiah) i : sektor/ lapangan usaha (s1, s2, s3, s4, s5, s5, s7, s8, s9) j : provinsi t : periode regresi linier dengan data panel verbeek (2012: 310) mengemukakan bahwa keuntungan regresi dengan data panel adalah kemampuann regresi data panel dalam mengidentifikasi parameter-parameter regresi secara pasti tanpa membutuhkan asumsi restriksi atau kendala. menurut baltagi (2005), keunggulan penggunaan data panel dibanding data runtun waktu dan data lintas sektoral adalah: estimasi data panel dapat menunjukkan adanya heterogenitas dalam tiap unit; dengan data panel, data lebih informatif, mengurangi kolinieritas antara variabel, meningkatkan derajat kebebasan dan lebih efisien; data panel cocok untuk menggambarkan adanya dinamika perubahan; data panel dapat lebih mampu mendeteksi dan mengukur dampak; optimalisasi fungsi intermediasi perbankan syariah… (muh rudi nugroho) 49 data panel bisa digunakan untuk studi dengan model yang lebih lengkap; data panel dapat meminimumkan bias yang mungkin dihasilkan dalam agregasi. estimasi model regresi penggabungan semua data untuk intersep dan koefisien slope konstan setiap waktu dan unit biasa disebut juga dengan estimasi regresi data panel dengan metode pooled least square, yang mempunyai bentuk spesifikasi sebagai berikut: ……… (1) jika model regresi diasumsikan mempunyai koefisien slope konstan tetapi intersep bervariasi tiap unit maka digunakan variabel dummy waktu dan unit. ………..(2) model (2) ini dikenal dengan fixed effect model (fem). intersep meskipun bervariasi tiap unit tapi tidak berbeda dalam tiap waktu (time invariant). variabel dummy digunakan untuk mengetahui besarnya perbedaan koefisien tiap unit (differential intercept dummies) dan model dapat dituliskan sebagai berikut: model (2) ini dikenal juga sebagai covariance model. salah satu alasan digunakannya fixed effect model adalah karena, kesimpulan (inferensi) yang akan diambil dari model yang akan diteliti hanya akan mempertimbangkan efeknnya pada sampel yang ada dan bukan pada populasi. hal ini berlainan dengan tujuan dipakainya random effect model, yaitu untuk melihat efeknya pada populasi dalam mengambil kesimpulan (verbeek, 2012). model estimasi regresi data panel yang ketiga adalah error component model atau disebut juga random effect model (rem). model rem ini melibatkan korelasi antar error term karena berubahnya waktu maupun karena berbedanya unit observasi. model dasarnya dapat diformulasikan sebagai berikut: ……..(3) ketiga model tersebut akan berbeda dalam intrepetasi analisisnya sehingga perlu dilakukan pemilihan model untuk memperoleh estimasi yang efisien sesuai dengan penggunaan regresi data panel. uji statistik f uji statistik f digunakan untuk memilih antara metode pls tanpa variabel dummy atau memilih fixed effect. uji statistik f yang dapat dilakukan adalah sebagai berikut (verbeek, 2012): di mana, r2ur : mengacu pada unrestricted model r2r : mengacu pada restricted model n : jumlah unit cross section t : jumlah unit waktu k : jumlah parameter yang akan diestimasi jika ternyata hasil perhitungan f stat ≥ f (n-1,nt-n-k), berarti ho ditolak, artinya intersep untuk semua cross section tidak sama. dalam hal ini, fem digunakan untuk mengestimasi persamaan regresi. sementara itu, hal-hal yang harus diperhatikan jika menggunakan fem (verbeek, 2012). pertama, penggunaan variabel dummy akan menimbulkan masalah degrees of freedom. kedua, kemungkinan terjadi multikolienaritas. ketiga, fem tidak bisa digunakan untuk mengetahui dampak variabel yang invariant (misal, jenis kelamin, ras, dll). keempat, error term harus diperhatikan sehingga asumsi klasik error term harus dimodifikasi. )/()1( )1/()( ),1( 2 22 knntr nrr knntnf ur rur    jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 1, april 2016: 45-54 50 uji lagrange multiplier uji lagrange multiplier (lm) digunakan untuk memilih antara ols tanpa variabel dummy atau memilih random effect. uji lagrange multiplier (lm) yang dapat dilakukan adalah (verbeek, 2012): ( ) ( ∑ (∑ ) ∑ ∑ ) di mana, n : jumlah individu t : jumlah periode waktu e : residual metode ols jika perhitungan lm > x2 dengan satu derajat kebebasan, maka ho ditolak, artinya rem bisa digunakan untuk mengestimasi persamaan regresi. uji haussman uji haussman digunakan untuk memilih antara fixed effect model (fem) atau random effect model (rem). hipotesis dari uji hausman gujarati, 2003) adalah: ho : estimator random konsisten ha : estimator random tidak konsisten di mana ho diterima artinya rem lebih baik digunakan daripada fem, dan sebaliknya. maka ho diterima/ ditolak jika: x2tab > x2hit : ho diterima x2tab < x2hit : ho ditolak untuk mendapatkan nilai x2hit diambil dari perbedaan nilai beta dan covarian setiap metode. uji statistik hausman yang dapat dilakukan adalah: ( ̅ ̅ ) ( ( ̅ ) ( ̅ )) ( ) dan untuk multivariate, ( ̅ ̅ )( ( ̅ ) ( ̅ )) ( ̅ ̅ ) ( ) uji statistik haussman ini mengikuti distribusi chi-square (x2) dengan degrees of freedom sebanyak k dimana k adalah jumlah variabel independen. jika nilai statistik haussman lebih besar dari nilai kritisnya maka model yang tepat adalah fem, sedangkan sebaliknya bila nilai statistik haussman lebih kecil dari nilai kritisnya maka model yang tepat adalah rem. menurut judge (1985), ada beberapa hal yang harus diperhatikan untuk menentukan pendekatan mana yang dipilih (fem atau rem) dalam estimasi panel data, yaitu: jika ε dan x berkorelasi, maka lebih baik menggunakan fem, dan jika ε dan x tidak berkorelasi, maka lebih baik digunakan rem, jika t (jumlah time series) besar dan n (jumlah individu/ unit) kecil, perbedaan keduanya relatif kecil, maka lebih baik menggunakan fem, jika n besar dan t kecil, digunakan fem apabila unit tidak random dari sampel yang besar dan digunakan rem apabila unit diambil secara random dan jika n besar dan t kecil dan apabila asumsi rem terpenuhi, estimator rem lebih efisien dibandingkan fem. hasil dan pembahasan analisis model 1 hasil analisis regresi model 1 sebagaimana dalam lampiran 2, secara umum model tersebut fit, yang ditunjukkan dengan r2 = 97.99 % dan f statistik 130.28 (prob 0.0000), serta konstanta (c) yang tidak signifikan (t-statistik 1.2 dan probability 0.24). dana pihak ketiga (dpk) diproksikan dengan 10% dari total abpd provinsi. asumsinya, penempatan dana apbd di perbankan syariah, akan berimplikasi pada perkembangan perbankan syariah yang digambarkan dengan jumlah penyaluran pembiayaan. dalam konteks ini variabel swbi, dpk, optimalisasi fungsi intermediasi perbankan syariah… (muh rudi nugroho) 51 dan jumlah bank tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pembiayaan di perbankan syariah. pdrb berdasarkan sektor. lapangan usaha juga berkontribusi terhadap pembiayaan di perbankan syariah. dari sembilan sektor penyumbang pdrb provinsi, sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi yang paling berpengaruh terhadap pembiayaan di perbankan syariah. setiap kenaikan jumlah pdrb di sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi sebesar satu juta rupiah, maka pembiayaan di perbankan syariah akan naik sebesar rp 5,49 juta. secara statistik, hubungan ini signifikan dengan α 1% (t-statistik 5,98 dan probability 0,0000). meskipun sektor ini sudah optimal, perlu optimalisasi pembiayaan agar lebih efisien. untuk sektor industri pengolahan, setiap terjadi kenaikan pdrb di sektor industri pengolahan satu juta rupiah, akan berimplikasi pada kenaikan pembiayaan di perbankan syariah sebesar rp 0,15 juta. secara statistik, hubungan ini signifikan dengan α 5% (tstatistik 3,23 dan probability 0,0029). kenaikan pdrb di sektor industri pengolahan dan kenaikan pembiayaan di perbankan syariah perbandingannya tidak sepadan, hanya 7 : 1, maka dari itu perlu optimalisasi pembiayaan di sektor industri pengolahan agar lebih efisien. di sisi lain, pdrb di sektor keuangan, persewaan & jasa perusahaan dan pembiayaan di perbankan syariah memiliki perbandingan yang cukup tinggi, yaitu 1 : 6. setiap terjadi kenaikan pdrb di sektor keuangan, persewaan & jasa perusahaan maka pembiayaan di perbankan syariah akan naik sebesar rp 5,61 juta. hubungan ini signifikan dengan α 10% (tstatistik 1,31 dan probability 0,1042). beberapa sektor ekonomi memiliki hubungan negatif terhadap pembiayaan di perbankan syariah. artinya setiap terjadi kenaikan pdrb di sektor-sektor tersebut, justru akan menurunkan pembiayaan di perbankan syariah. di antara sektor yang berhubungan negatif tersebut adalah sektor pertanian, sektor perdagangan, hotel & restoran, serta sektor jasa-jasa. pada sektor pertanian, setiap terjadi kenaikan pdrb sebesar satu juta rupiah, maka pembiayaan di perbankan syariah akan turun hingga rp 2,03 juta. hubungan ini signifikan dengan α 1% (t-statistik -3.68 dan probability 0,0008). sama halnya dengan sektor pertanian, sektor perdagangan, hotel & restoran setiap kenaikan pdrb sebesar satu juta rupiah, akan berdampak pada penurunan pembiayaan di perbankan syariah sebesar rp 0,54 juta. hubungan ini signifikan dengan α 1% (t-statistik -3,27 dan probability 0,0025). sektor jasa-jasa juga berhubungan negatif dengan pembiayaan di perbankan syariah, meskipun hubungan tersebut tidak signifikan secara statistik. beberapa sektor ekonomi yang berhubungan negatif terhadap pembiayaan di perbankan syariah tersebut mengindikasikan ketidakefisienan, maka dari itu perlu optimalisasi pembiayaan di sektor-sektor tersebut agar menjadi efisien. hal ini tidak menutup kemungkinan untuk melakukan optimalisasi pembiayaan di sektor-sektor yang sudah efisien, dengan tujuan agar sektor-sektor tersebut lebih efisien dan efektif. dengan kata lain kondisi ini mengindikasikan optimalisasi fungsi intermediasi perbankan syariah berbasis otonomi daerah, yang mempunyai multiplier effect baik pada perbankan syariah maupun pada pemda. salah satu dampak yang riel adalah pertumbuhan sektor riel di tiap daerah, yang secara tidak langsung juga akan berdampak pada pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional. analisis model 2 sektor pertanian (s1) s1 = 13331990 + 3,38 p + 11,19 swbi + 3,76 dpk (0,99) (2,77)** (3,34)** (3,44)** + 18547,45 jb (0,48)** jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 1, april 2016: 45-54 52 r2 = 0,99 f = 104 pdrb di sektor pertanian akan meningkat dengan adanya alokasi dana apbd sebesar 10% di perbankan syariah. jika penyaluran pembiayaan perbankan syariah di sektor pertanian naik satu juta rupiah, maka pdrb sektor pertanian akan naik sebesar rp 3,38 juta. adanya kenaikan dpk perbankan syariah sebesar satu juta rupiah, akan berimplikasi pada peningkatan pdrb sektor pertanian sebesar rp 3,76 juta. jika satu bank syariah baru berdiri dan beroperasi, maka pdrb sektor pertanian di wilayah pendirian bank tersebut akan naik sebesar rp 18.547,45 juta. sektor pertambangan dan penggalian (s2) s2 = 7766757 + 0,28p + 9,83swbi +2,55dpk (1,39) (1,23)* (2,91)** (2,32)** + 93736,63jb (2,42)** r2 = 0,99 f = 100 pdrb di sektor pertambangan dan penggalian akan meningkat dengan adanya alokasi dana apbd sebesar 10% di perbankan syariah. jika penyaluran pembiayaan perbankan syariah di sektor pertambangan dan penggalian naik satu juta rupiah, maka pdrb sektor pertambangan dan penggalian akan naik sebesar rp 1.23 juta. adanya kenaikan dpk perbankan syariah sebesar satu juta rupiah, akan berimplikasi pada peningkatan pdrb sektor pertambangan dan penggalian sebesar rp 2.55 juta. jika satu bank syariah baru berdiri dan beroperasi, maka pdrb sektor pertambangan dan penggalian di wilayah pendirian bank tersebut akan naik sebesar rp 93,736.63 juta. sektor industri pengolahan (s3) s3 = 26375260 + 0.28 p + 9.83 swbi +2.57 dpk (2.08)*** (0.35) ( -0.51) (1.83)** + 7996.836 jb (0.12) r2 = 0.99 f = 22 dari empat variabel yang dipilih, hanyak variabel dpk yang signifikan berpengaruh terhadap pdrb di sektor industri pengolahan (α = 5%). setiap terjadi kenaikan dpk di perbankan syariah sebesar satu juta rupiah, maka terhadap pdrb di sektor industri pengolahan akan meningkat sebesar rp 2,57 juta. sektor listrik, gas dan air bersih (s4) s4 = 1145928 + 0,57p + 2,46swbi – 0,61dpk + 3926,98jb (7,83)*** (2,38)** (3,71)*** (-2,82)** (1,526)* r2 = 0,99 f = 452 pada sektor listrik, gas dan air bersih, tiap terjadi kenaikan pembiayaan di perbankan syariah sebesar satu juta rupiah, maka pdrb sektor listrik, gas dan air bersih akan naik sebesar rp 0,57 juta. jika ada penambahan unit bank, maka tiap kenaikan satu unit bank, akan berdampak pada peningkatan pdrb sektor listrik, gas dan air bersih sebesar rp 3.926,98 juta. sedangkan dpk berhubungan terbalik, yang mana setiap terjadi kenaikan dpk di perbankan syariah sebesar satu juta rupiah, justru pdrb sektor listrik, gas dan air bersih akan menurun hingga rp 0,61 juta. sektor konstruksi (s5) s5 = 5000294 + 0,89 p + 4,05 swbi – 0,69 dpk (6,57)*** (2,72)** (1,17) (-0,62) + 49055,85 jb (1,54)* r2 = 0,99 f = 401 pada sektor pembiayaan dan jumlah bank berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pdrb sektor konstruksi. setiap kenaikan per satu juta rupiah pembiayaan perbankan syariah, maka pdrb optimalisasi fungsi intermediasi perbankan syariah… (muh rudi nugroho) 53 sektor pertanian akan naik sebesar rp 0,89 juta, sedangkan jumlah bank, tiap kenaikan satu unit akan berdampak pada peningkatan jumlah pdrb sektor konstruksi hingga rp 49.055,85 juta. sektor perdagangan, hotel & restoran (s6) s6 = 20072457 + 5,37 p + 21,23 swbi – 3,58 dpk (6,87)*** (1,55)* (1,60) ( -0,83) + 49779,39 jb (2.33)** r2 = 0,99 f = 301 sama halnya dengan pdrb sektor konstruksi, pdrb sektor perdagangan, hotel & restoran akan mengalami kenaikan sebesar rp 5,37 juta jika pembiayaan perbankan syariah naik sebesar satu juta rupiah. demikian juga dengan jumlah bank, kenaikan per unit bank akan meningkatkan pdrb sektor perdagangan, hotel & restoran sebesar rp 49.779,39 juta. sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi (s7) s7 = 5176696 +1,58 p + 4,53 swbi – 0,73 dpk (2,91)*** (0,55)* (0,57) (-0,27) + 101394,5 jb (1,09)* r2 = 0,98 f = 93 pdrb sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi akan naik hingga rp 1,58 juta ketika pembiayaan perbankan syariah naik satu juta rupiah. pdrb sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi juga akan meningkat sebesar rp 101.394,5 juta setiap ada penambahan satu unit bank syariah di wilayah tersebut. sektor keuangan, persewaan & jasa perusahaan (s8) s7 = 1352310 + 5,76 p + 2,89 swbi + 4,61 dpk (7,11)*** (1,68)* (0,18) (1,87)* + 357732jb (0,81)* r2 = 0.99 f = 43 pdrb sektor keuangan, persewaan & jasa perusahaan di suatu daerah akan meningkat sebesar rp 5,76 juta jika terjadi kenaikan pembiayaan perbankan syariah sebesar satu juta rupiah. pdrb sektor tersebut juga akan mengalani peningkatan hingga rp 4,61 juta ketika ada kenaikan dpk perbankan syariah satu juta rupiah. jumlah unit bank syariah juga mempangaruhi pdrb sektor keuangan, persewaan & jasa perusahaan. pdrb akan naik rp 357.732 juta jika ada satu unit bank syariah berdiri. sektor jasa-jasa (s9) s9 = 1414353 + 4,67 p + 2,72 swbi + 5,69 dpk (67,48)*** (1,62)* (0,65) (2,02)* + 19512jb (1,64)* r2 = 0,99 f = 68 pdrb sektor jasa-jasa akan naik rp 4,67 juta ketika pembiayaan perbankan syariah naik satu juta rupiah. pdrb sektor tersebut juga akan naik rp 5,69 juta jika dpk perbankan syariah naik satu juta rupiah. jika berdiri satu unit bank syariah di suatu wilayah, maka pdrb sektor jasa di wilayah tersebut akan naik rp 19,512 juta. simpulan dan saran simpulan hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa alokasi 10% dana apdb provinsi akan berimplikasi pada perkembangan perbankan syariah, yang dalam hal ini diukur dengan besarnya penyaluran pembiayaan perbankan syariah. kondisi ini menunjukkan bahwa optimalisasi fungsi intermediasi perbankan syariah dapat dilakukan berbasis otonomi daerah, karena mempunyai mulplier effect baik pada perbankan syariah maupun pada pemda. salah satu bentuk multiplier effect yaitu pertumbuhan sektor riel di tiap daerah, yang secara tidak langsung juga akan berdampak jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 1, april 2016: 45-54 54 pada pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional. bukti lain yang memperkuat hal ini adalah financing to deposit ratio (fdr) perbankan syariah >95%, yang menunjukkan fungsi intermediasi perbankan syariah berjalan dengan baik. secara sektoral, sembilan sektor penyumbang pdrb provinsi akan meningkat seiring dengan peningkatan penyaluran pembiayaan perbankan syariah. di sisi lain, kenaikan dpk akan berdampak positif terhadap kenaikan pdrb beberapa sektor, di antaranya sektor pertanian, sektor pertambangan dan penggalian, sektor industri pengolahan, sektor keuangan, persewaan & jasa perusahaan, serta sektor jasa-jasa. penambahan unit bank di suatu wilayah, akan meningkatkan pdrb semua sektor. temuan ini memperjelas pernyataan sebelumnya, terkait dengan perlunya optimalisasi fungsi intermediasi perbankan syariah berbasis otonomi daerah, dalam rangka pengembangan perbankan syariah di indonesia. untuk mendukung proses optimalisasi fungsi intermediasi perbankan syariah, maka jumlah jaringan perbankan syariah harus ditambah, serta diarahkan menjadi investment bank dalam jangka panjang. dengan demikian perkembangan perbankan syariah dan pembangunan daerah di era otonomi daerah dapat berjalan bersama, dalam rangka mencapai tujuan pembangunan nasional. saran sampel perbankan syariah dalam penelitian ini hanya menggunakan data-data bank pembangunan daerah (bpd) syariah sebagai proksi dari perbankan syariah, sehingga provinsi yang dimasukkan dalam sampel hanya provinsi yang mempunyai bpd syariah di wilayahnya. hal ini dikarenakan keterbatasan data perbankan syariah per provinsi. oleh karena itu, untuk penelitian selanjutnya dapat menggunakan perbankan syariah secara nasional agar hasil yang diperoleh lebih relevan dalam menggambarkan pola optimalisasi fungsi intermediasi perbankan syariah berbasis otonomi daerah. daftar pustaka baltagi, b, h, 2005, econometric analysis of panel data, new york: john wiley and sons gujarati, damodar, n. 2003, basic econometrics. 4th ed.new york: the mcgraw-hill companies, inc. judge, george g, 1985, the theory and practice of econometrics, new york : wiley statistik perbankan indonesia juni 2015, bank indonesia statistik perbankan syariah juni 2015, bank indonesia verbeek, marno, 2012, a guide to modern econometrics, new york : wiley jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 1, april 2018, hlm. 61-74 doi: 10.18196/jesp.19.1.4100 identifikasi pusat pertumbuhan dan interaksi spasial di provinsi lampung zulfa emalia dan isti farida jurusan ekonomi pembangunan, fakultas ekonomi dan bisnis universitas lampung, jalan soemantri brodjonegoro no. 1 e-mail korespondensi: emalia.zulfa@gmail.com abstract: the aim of this research is to know the fast developed and growing area in province lampung, growth of pole area and the highest spasial interactions relationship between growth of pole area and hinterland area. this study uses secondary data taken from the site of the centre statistics agency and others linked. these analysis tools used are klassen typology, scalogram, centrality index, ordinal scale, arcgis and gravity index. the results showed that there are three areas in province lampung that is fast developed and growing is bandar lampung, center lampung and south lampung. bandar lampung, center lampung and south lampung became the growth of pole area in province lampung with the hinterland which have the highest interaction is pesawaran east lampung and bandar lampung city key words: arcgis, centrality index, gravity index, growth of pole, scalogram jel classification: o18, o20, o21, o41 pendahuluan pembangunan ekonomi merupakan suatu proses yang menyebabkan pendapatan perkapita penduduk suatu masyarakat meningkat dalam jangka panjang (todaro dan smith 2006). secara umum pembangunan ekonomi adalah proses untuk meningkatkan pendapatan total dan pendapatan perkapita dengan memperhitungkan adanya pertumbuhan penduduk di suatu negara. peningkatan jumlah penduduk menuntut para penentu kebijakan pembangunan terutama di daerah untuk menggerakkan seluruh sektor perekonomiannya secara maksimal untuk menghasilkan barang dan jasa yang dibutuhkan masyarakat dalam bentuk peningkatan output agregrat atau produk domestik regional bruto (pdrb) setiap tahun. pembangunan ekonomi daerah merupakan suatu proses di mana pemerintah daerah dan masyarakatnya mengelola sumber daya yang ada dan membentuk suatu pola kemitraan antara pemerintah daerah dengan sektor swasta untuk menciptakan suatu lapangan kerja baru dan merangsang perkembangan kegiatan ekonomi atau pertumbuhan ekonomi dalam wilayah tersebut (arsyad, 1999). berdasarkan undang-undang no. 32 tahun 2004 tentang pemerintahan daerah, pemerintah pusat memberikan kewenangan yang lebih besar kepada daerah untuk melakukan serangkaian proses, mekanisme dan tahapan perencanaan yang dapat menjamin keseimbangan pembangunan. adanya undang-undang tersebut maka pemerintah daerah diberi hak atau wewenang untuk melakukan pembangunan ekonomi daerahnya. salah satu kebijakan pemerintah untuk mempersempit kesenjangan antar daerah adalah diterapkannya kebijakan pembangunan daerah melalui konsep kawasan andalan, berdasarkan potensi yang dimiliki masing-masing daerah. melalui kebijakan tersebut diharapkan dapat terjadi keseimbangan tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi dan pendapatan perkapita antar wilayah, sehingga 62 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 1, april 2018: 61-74 dapat menutup atau minimal mempersempit gap kesenjangan ekonomi antar daerah (kuncoro, 2002). penelitian ini akan mencari wilayah pusat pertumbuhan di provinsi lampung, sebagai salah satu upaya untuk mengurangi kesenjangan pembangunan antar daerah. konsep pusat pertumbuhan dilandasi oleh konsep ruang ekonomi (economic space) yang dikemukakan oleh francoins perroux. perroux menyatakan bahwa, pertumbuhan tidak muncul diberbagai daerah pada waktu yang bersamaan, pertumbuhan akan muncul pada kutub-kutub pertumbuhan dengan intensitas yang berbeda dan dengan akibat yang berbeda pula (perroux dalam tarigan, 2004). teori perroux yang dikenal dengan istilah pusat pertumbuhan (growth of pole) merupakan teori yang menjadi dasar strategi kebijakan pembangunan industri daerah yang banyak diterapkan diberbagai negara saat ini. adanya pengembangan wilayah pada pusatpusat pertumbuhan akan merangsang pertumbuhan ekonomi yang juga akan diikuti oleh pembangunan wilayah disekitarnya, karena pusatpusat pertumbuhan dapat menyebabkan terjadinya spread effect (efek sebar) dari daerah kegiatan pusat pertumbuhan ke daerah sekitarnya, sehingga daerah sekitarnya juga akan dapat tumbuh dan berkembang. menurut perroux dalam tarigan (2004) pusat pertumbuhan (growth pole) dapat diartikan dengan dua cara yaitu secara fungsional dan geografis. secara fungsional, pusat pertumbuhan adalah suatu lokasi konsentrasi kelompok usaha yang karena sifat hubungannya memiliki unsurunsur kedinamisan sehingga mampu menstimulasi kehidupan ekonomi, baik ke dalam maupun ke luar. apabila dilihat secara geografis pusat pertumbuhan adalah suatu lokasi yang memiliki banyak fasilitas dan kemudahan sehingga menjadi pusat daya tarik (pole of attraction) yang menyebabkan berbagai usaha tertarik untuk berlokasi di tempat tersebut dan masyarakat senang datang memanfaatkan fasilitas yang ada. untuk menentukan kabupaten/kota di provinsi lampung yang menjadi wilayah pusat pertumbuhan dalam penelitian ini menggunakan analisis skalogram, indeks sentralitas dengan skala ordinal dan arcgis. sebelum mencari wilayah pusat pertumbuhan menggunakan analisis skalogram, indeks sentralitas dengan skala ordinal dan arcgis. dalam penelitian ini akan melakukan pemetaan wilayah terlebih dahulu dengan mengunakan alat analisis tipologi klassen. analisis tipologi klassen digunakan untuk melihat keadaan atau posisi perekonomian pada suatu daerah, yang dibagi dalam empat kuadran. setelah pemetaan wilayah selesai dianalisis, selanjutnya akan mencari wilayah pusat pertumbuhan menggunakan analisis skalogram, indeks sentralitas dengan skala ordinal dan arcgis. setelah wilayah pusat pertumbuhan diperoleh selanjutnya dalam penelitian ini akan mencari kekuatan interaksi spasial antara pusat pertumbuhan dengan wilayah sekitarnya. interaksi spasial atau keruangan merupakan suatu hubungan timbal balik yang saling berpengaruh antara dua wilayah atau lebih yang dapat menimbulkan gejala, kenampakan, atau permasalahan baru, karena lokasi atau wilayah adalah suatu hal yang di perhitungkan dalam kajian ekonomi regional dan interaksi yang terjadi diantara mereka mempengaruhi kecepatan pembangunan wilayah bersangkutan (respati, 2015). untuk mencari kekuatan interaksi spasial antara wilayah pusat pertumbuhan dengan daerah belakangnya (hinterland) dalam penelitian ini mengunakan indeks gravitasi. selanjutnya hasil dari indeks gravitasi akan dilakukan skoring dengan skala ordinal, untuk memudahkan dalam penentuan prioritas kekuatan interaksi antar wilayah. berdasarkan kondisi di atas muncullah pertanyaan kabupaten/kota mana yang menjadi daerah cepat maju dan tumbuh, pusat pertum identifikasi pusat pertumbuhan dan interaksi spasial… (zulfa emalia, isti farida) 63 buhan, dan memiliki nilai interaksi spasial tertinggi dengan pusat pertumbuhan di provinsi lampung. penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui daerah mana yang cepat maju dan tumbuh di provinsi lampung, untuk mengetahui kabupaten/kota mana yang menjadi pusat pertumbuhan di provinsi lampung, dan untuk mengetahui kabupaten/kota mana yang memiliki nilai interaksi spasial tertinggi dengan wilayah pusat pertumbuhan. konsep pusat pertumbuhan dilandasi oleh konsep ruang ekonomi (economic space) yang di kemukakan oleh francoins perroux. teori perroux yang dikenal dengan istilah pusat pertumbuhan (growth of pole) merupakan teori yang menjadi dasar strategi kebijaksanaan pembangunan industri daerah yang banyak diterapkan di berbagai negara dewasa ini. perroux menyatakan bahwa, pembangunan atau pertumbuhan tidak terjadi disegala tata ruang, akan tetapi akan terbatas pada beberapa tempat tertentu dengan variabel-variabel yang berbeda intensitasnya. tata ruang diidentifikasikan sebagai suatu arena (medan) kekuatan yang didalamnya terdapat kutup-kutup pertumbuhan (perroux dalam tarigan, 2004). menurut perroux dalam tarigan (2004), pusat pertumbuhan (growth of pole) dapat diartikan dengan dua cara, yaitu secara fungsional dan secara geografis. secara fungsional, pusat pertumbuhan adalah suatu lokasi konsentrasi kelompok usaha atau cabang industri yang karena sifat hubungannya memiliki unsur-unsur kedinamisan sehingga mampu menstimulasi kehidupan ekonomi baik ke dalam maupun ke luar (daerah belakangnya). secara geografis, pusat pertumbuhan adalah suatu lokasi yang banyak memiliki fasilitas dan kemudahan sehingga menjadi pusat daya tarik (pole of attraction), yang menyebabkan berbagai macam usaha tertarik untuk berlokasi di situ dan masyarakat senang datang memanfaatkan fasilitas yang ada di kota tersebut, walaupun kemungkinan tidak ada interaksi antara usaha-usaha tersebut. tidak semua kota generatif dapat dikategorikan sebagai pusat pertumbuhan. selain perroux, para ahli seperti myrdal (1957), hirschman (1958), dan boudville (1966) juga mengemukakan berbagai konsep tentang pusat pertumbuhan. menurut myrdal (dalam mutaali, 2003), pertumbuhan ekonomi dalam suatu wilayah tertentu bergantung pada lokasi dari sumberdaya alam dan keuntungan-keuntungan lokasi lainya. pertumbuhan ini akan terjadi pada daerah belakangnya melalui efek kumulatif yaitu efek sebar (spread effect) dan efek serap backwash effect). prinsip pertumbuhan ekonomi suatu wilayah ditentukan oleh adanya industri propulsive tertentu, cenderung hanya akan menarik modal dari daerah sekitarnya, karena keuntungan lokasi pada wilayah tersebut. hal ini memungkinkan backwash effect akan menjadi lebih kuat dari spread effect yang ditandai dengan adanya penyerapan ekonomi wilayah sekitarnya ke pusat-pusat pertumbuhan wilayah tersebut. apabila tidak ada kebijaksanaan intervensi dari suatu mekanisme pasar maka pertumbuhan ekonomi ini akan menimbulkan pertumbuhan wilayah yang timpang. pendapat lain yang dikemukakan oleh hirschman (dalam adisasmita, 2005) yang menyatakan bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi pada pusat pertumbuhan akan berpengaruh pada daerah belakangnya melalui efek polarisasi (polarization effect) dan efek penetesan kebawah (trickling downeffect). polarisasi efek tersebut diperkuat dengan adanya pemusatan investasi pada pusat pertumbuhan, sedangkan trickling down effect dapat tumbuh dengan cara meningkatkan daya tarik wilayah sekitarnya. boudville (dalam adisasmita, 2005), menyatakan bahwa setiap wilayah mempunyai perbe 64 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 1, april 2018: 61-74 daan struktur ekonomi. perbedaan ini dipengaruhi antara lain oleh adanya perbedaan latar belakang historis dan potensi sumber daya manusia pada wilayah-wilayah tersebut. untuk dapat menyebarkan pertumbuhan ekonomi dari pusat ke daerah belakangnya, maka boudville mengusulkan perlu dilakukan pemilihan lokasi pusat atau kutub pertumbuhan yang dapat mendorong efek kumulatif kegiatan ekonomi dan menyebarkannya ke wilayah belakangnya. metode penelitian jenis dan sumber penelitian jenis penelitian ini berupa penelitian deskriptif kuantitatif, karena penelitian ini disajikan dengan angka-angka. hal ini sesuai dengan pendapat arikunto (2006) yang mengemukakan penelitian kuantitatif adalah pendekatan penelitian yang banyak dituntut menggunakan angka, mulai dari pengumpulan data, penafsiran terhadap data tersebut, serta penampilan hasilnya. jenis data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini merupakan data sekunder. data sekunder adalah data yang telah dikumpulkan oleh lembaga pengumpul data dan dipublikasikan kepada masyarakat pengguna data (kuncoro, 2009). data sekunder yang digunakan diperoleh dari statistik ekonomi, seperti bps provinsi lampung, dan instansi terkait. variabel penelitian 1. rata-rata pdrb perkapita masing-masing kabupaten/kota tahun 2012-2015 2. rata-rata laju pertumbuhan ekonomi pada masing-masing kabupaten/kota tahun 20122015 3. jumlah penduduk masing-masing kabupaten/kota tahun 2012-2015 4. fasilitas (fasilitas pendidikan, kesehatan, peribadatan, ekonomi) 5. potensi ekonomi (potensi pariwisata, perikanan, industri) 6. kepadatan penduduk 7. jarak antar wilayah pada tahun 2015. metode analisis analisis tipologi klassen analisis tipologi klassen digunakan untuk mengetahui gambaran tentang kondisi dan struktur pertumbuhan ekonomi di suatu wilayah yang dikaitkan dengan perekonominan diatasnya, dalam penelitian ini yang menjadi wilayah referensi adalah provinsi lampung dan wilayah analisisnya adalah masing-masing kabupaten/kota yang ada di provinsi lampung dan dibagi menjadi empat kuadran sebagai berikut (syafrizal dalam ermawati, 2010): 1. kuadran pertama adalah daerah cepat maju dan cepat tumbuh yaitu daerah yang memiliki tingkat pdrb perkapita dan laju pertumbuhan yang lebih unggul dibandingkan dengan wilayah referensi. 2. kuadran kedua adalah daerah maju tapi tertekan yaitu daerah yang memiliki tingkat pdrb perkapita yang lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan wilayah referensinya, tetapi laju pertumbuhan ekonominya lebih kecil dari pada wilayah referensinya. 3. kuadran ketiga adalah daerah berkembang cepat, daerah ini memiliki tingkat pdrb perkapita lebih kecil dibandingkan dengan wilayah referensinya, tetapi laju pertumbuhan ekonominya lebih besar dari pada wilayah referensinya. 4. kuadran keempat adalah daerah relatif tertinggal yaitu daerah yang memiliki tingkat pdrb perkapita dan laju pertumbuhan ekonomi yang lebih kecil dibandingkan wilayah referensinya analisis skalogram dan indeks sentralitas, skala ordinal dan arcgis analisis sklagoram ini sering juga disebut sebagai metode analisis skala guttman menurut soenjoto dalam (gaffara, 2015). metode analisis identifikasi pusat pertumbuhan dan interaksi spasial… (zulfa emalia, isti farida) 65 skala guttman merupakan suatu teknik skala, yang memiliki sedikit perbedaan dengan teknikteknik skala lainnya, yaitu metode yang menuliskan ada atau tidaknya suatu fungsi (fasilitas dan potensi ekonomi) di suatu wilayah, dengan mengisikan angka 1 bila suatu fungsi tersebut terdapat pada suatu wilayah dan mengisikan anggka 0 jika tidak ada. indeks sentralitas (centrality indeks analysis) merupakan langkah lanjutan dari analisis skalogram yang dalam analisisnya tidak hanya berdasarkan jumlah fungsi atau fasilitas pelayanan yang ada pada suatu wilayah, tetapi juga berdasarkan frekuensi keberadaan fungsi atau fasilitas tersebut pada wilayah yang ditinjau. frekuensi keberadaan fungsi menunjukan jumlah fungsi sejenis yang ada dan tersebar di wilayah tertentu (mutaali, 2003) dengan rumus bobot fungsi c = (x/x) keterangan: c = bobot atribut fungsi x x = jumlah total fungsi dalam sistem x = nilai sentralitas gabungan = 100 fasilitas pendidikan dan kesehatan = 10 fasilitas peribadatan = 5 fasilitas ekonomi = 40 potensi ekonomi dibobot = 35 pembobotan yang lebih besar untuk fasilitas ekonomi dan potensi ekonomi tersebut, dikarenakan fasilitas ekonomi dan potensi ekonomi memiliki peran yang lebih besar untuk mendorong masuknya investasi sehingga dapat meningkatkan pendapatan dan pertumbuhan suatu daerah. skala ordial dalam penelitian ini digunakan untuk menentukan prioritas atau rangkaing dalam rangka untuk mengurutkan wilayah yang mempunyai hasil tertinggi sampai yang terendah dari analisis skalgram dan indeks sentralits. dilakukan dengan cara memberikan skor pada masing-masing analisis kemudian skor tersebut ditotal dan dilakukan perangkingan, yang memeperoleh skor terbanyak akan memperoleh rangking yang pertama dan sebaliknya. arcgis adalah salah satu software yang dikembangkan oleh esri (environment science dan research institute) yang merupakan kompilasi fungsi-fungsi dari berbagai macam software gis yang berbeda seperti gis desktop, server, dan gis berbasis web. software ini mulai dirilis pada tahun 2000 oleh esri. kegunaanya aplikasi ini untuk menampilkan data spasial, membuat peta, serta melakukan analisis data spasial (siregar, 2014). analisis gravitasi model gravitasi adalah model yang paling banyak digunakan untuk melihat besarnya daya tarik dari suatu potensi yang berada pada suatu lokasi. model ini sering digunakan untuk melihat kaitan potensi suatu lokasi dan besarnya wilayah pengaruh dari potensi tersebut. dalam perencanaan wilayah, model ini sering dijadikan alat untuk melihat apakah lokasi berbagai fasilitas kepentingan umum telah berada pada tempat yang benar. selain itu juga model ini dapat digunakan untuk menentukan lokasi yang optimal dalam pembangunan fasilitas baru. dari beberapa alat ukur tersebut yang sering digunakan adalah jumlah penduduk, hal ini dikarenakan data jumlah penduduk mudah didapatkan, selain itu juga jumlah penduduk sangat terkait langsung dengan berbagai ukuran lain yang dikemumukan diatas. faktor kedua yang mempengaruhi interaksi itu adalah jarak antara kota a dan b. jarak mempengaruhi keinginan orang untuk bepergian karena untuk menempuh jarak tersebut diperlukan waktu, tenaga, dan biaya. semakin jauh jarak yang memisahkan kedua lokasi, semakin rendah keinginan orang untuk bepergian. rumus gravitasi secara umum adalah sebagai berikut (tarigan, 2004): iij= 66 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 1, april 2018: 61-74 selanjutnya penggunaan rumus gravitasi tersebut dapat disederhanakan menjadi (daldjoeni dalam ermawati, 2010): i= keterangan: i= besarnya interaksi antara kota/wilayah a dan b p1= jumlah penduduk kota/wilayah i (ribuan jiwa) p2= jumlah penduduk kota/wilayah j (ribuan jiwa) dij(d)= jarak antara kota i dan kota j (km) k = bilangan konstanta berdasarkan pengalaman b = pangkat dari dijyang sering digunakan b =2 konsep dasar dari alat analisis gravitasi dalam penelitian ini adalah membahas mengenai ukuran jarak wilayah antara pusat pertumbuhan dengan daerah sekitarnya, sampai seberapa jauh sebuah daerah yang menjadi pusat pertumbuhan mempengaruhi dan berinteraksi dengan daerah sekelilingnya. semakin besar nilai interaksinya menunjukkan semakin eratnya hubungan interaksi antara pusat pertumbuhan dengan daerah sekitarnya (hinterland). hubungan interaksi tersebut berupa hubungan ekonomi antar wilayah dan sosial masyaraktnya. untuk memudahkan dalam penentuan prioritas wilayah yang mempunyai hubungan interaksi spasial yang kuat antara pusat pertumbuhan dengan daerah sekitarnya, maka hasil perhitungan gravitasi akan dirangking mengunakan skala ordinal. hasil dan pembahasan melalui perhitungan tipologi klassen dapat diketahui kondisi perekonomian pada masingmasing kabupaten/kota di provinsi lampung, dengan mengelompokan masing-masing kabupaten/kota kedalam empat kuadran. berdasarkan tabel 1 didapat diketahui bahwa terdapat tiga kabupaten/kota yang masuk dalam kuadran i yang berarti daerah cepat maju dan tumbuh yang terdiri dari kota bandar lampung, kabupaten lampung tengah dan lampung selatan. pada kuadran ii (daerah maju tetapi tertekan) terdapat kabupaten lampung timur, tulangbawang dan mesuji. kabupaten/kota yang terdapat dalam kuadran iii (daerah berkembang cepat) yaitu kabupaten lampung utara, pringsewu dan kota metro sedangkan pada kudran iv (daerah relatif tertinggal) merupakan kuadran yang paling banyak mencakup daerah dari pada kuadran-kuadran lainnya yaitu terdapat enam daerah seperti kabupaten lampung barat, tanggamus, way kanan, pesawaran, tulangbawang barat dan pesisir barat. tabel 1 hasil analisis tipologi klassen iv xi< x dan ∆xi< ∆x i xi> x dan ∆xi>x kab. lampung barat kab. tanggamus kab. way kanan kab. pesawaran kab. tulangbawang barat kab. pesisir barat kota bandar lampung kab. lampung tengah kab. lampung selatan iii xi< x dan ∆xi> ∆x ii xi> x dan ∆xi< ∆x kab. lampung utara kab. pringsewu kota metro kab. lampung timur kab. tulangbawang kab. mesuji sumber: data diolah, 2017 identifikasi pusat pertumbuhan dan interaksi spasial… (zulfa emalia, isti farida) 67 hasil analisis skalogram, indeks sentralitas, skala ordinal dan arcgis. tabel 2 hasil analisis skalogram no kab(kabupaten)/kota di provinsi lampung analisis skalogram (jumlah jenis fungsi) kelompok hierarki 1 kab. lampung timur 31 i 2 kab. lampung tengah 30 i 3 kab. lampung utara 30 i 4 kab. tulangbawang 30 i 5 kota bandar lampung 29 i i 6 kab. lampung selatan 29 i i 7 kab. tanggamus 28 i i 8 kab. lampung barat 28 i i 9 kab. tulangbawang barat 28 i i 10 kab. way kanan 27 i i 11 kab. pringsewu 27 i i 12 kota metro 27 i i 13 kab. pesawaran 26 i i i 14 kab. mesuji 25 i i i 15 kab. pesisir barat 18 v sumber: data diolah, 2017 berdasarkan tabel 2 dapat diketahui kabupaten/kota yang memiliki total fungsi (unit) tertinggi adalah kabupaten kabupaten lampng timur sebanyak 31. selanjutnya kabupaten lampung tengah, lampung utara, tulangbawang memiliki jumlah yang sama yaitu sebanyak 30, kota bandar lampung, kabupaten lampung selatan sebanyak 29, kabupaten tanggamus, lampung barat, tulangbawang barat sebanyak 28, kabupaten way kanan, pringsewu, kota metro sebanyak 27, kabupaten pesawaran 26, mesuji sebanyak 25 dan yang mendapatkan jumlah terrendah adalah kabupaten pesisir barat sebanyak 18. kabupaten/kota yang terdapat dalam kelompok hierarki i adalah kabupaten lampung timur, lampung tengah, lampung utara, tulangbawang yang berarti kabupaten tersebut berada dalam kelas interval (total fungsi) yang paling tinggi yaitu memiliki jumlah fungsi lebih dari 30. kabupaten/kota yang terdapat dalam kelompok hierarki ii ( berada dalam kelas interval atau total fungsi yang tinggi yaitu 27-29) adalah kota bandar lampung, lampung selatan, tanggamus, lampung barat, tulangbawang barat, way kanan, pringsewu, dan kota metro. kelompok hierarki iii yang berarti berada dalam kelas interval atau total fungsi yang cukup yaitu 27-29 adalah kabupaten pesawaran dan mesuji. pada kelompok hierarki iv (berada dalam kelas interval atau total fungsi sedang) tidak ditemukan kabupaten/kota yang masuk di dalamnya, dikarenakan jumlah total fungsi masingmasing kabupaten/kota tidak terdapat pada kelas interval kelompok hierarki ke iv yaitu yang berada pada kelas interval 21-23. kabupaten/kota yang berada pada hierarki terakhir yaitu v adalah kabupaten pesisir barat yang berarti berada dalam kelas interval atau total fungsi rendah antara 18-20. tabel 3 menunjukan data hasil perhitungan indeks sentralitas pada masing-masing kabupaten/kota di provinsi lampung. berdasarkan data tersebut diketahui bahwa kabupaten/kota yang terdapat pada kelompok hierarki i yaitu berada dalam kelas interval atau total fungsi paling 68 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 1, april 2018: 61-74 tabel 3 hasil perhitungan indeks sentralitas no kab (kabuapten)/kota di provinsi lampung indeks sentralitas kelompok hierarki 1 kab. lampung timur 87 i 2 kota bandar lampung 84 i 3 kab. lampung tengah 73 i 4 kab. lampung selatan 69 i 5 kab. tulangbawang 57 ii 6 kab. lampung utara 44 iii 7 kab. tanggamus 30 iv 8 kab. way kanan 27 iv 9 kab. lampung barat 25 v 10 kab. pringsewu 20 v 11 kota metro 17 v 12 kab. pesawaran 15 v 13 kab. pesisir barat 14 v 14 kab. tulangbawang barat 14 v 15 kab. mesuji 13 v sumber: data diolah, 2017 tinggi yaitu lebih dari 69 terdiri dari empat daerah yaitu kabupaten lampung timur, kota bandar lampung, lampung tengah dan kabupaten lampung selatan. selanjutnya kabupaten tulangbawang berada pada kelompok hierarki ii yaitu dalam kelasl interval atau total fungsi tinggi antara 55-68. pada kelompok hierarki iii yang berarti berada dalam kelas interval atau total fungsi cukup yaitu antara 41-54 adalah kabupaten lampung utara. kelompok hierarki iv yang berarti berada pada kelas interval atau total fungsi yang sedang yaitu antara 27-40 hanya terdapat dua kabupaten yaitu kabupaten tanggamus dan way kanan. kelompok terakhir yaitu hierarki ke-v yang merupakan kelompok hierarki yang berada dalam kelas interval atau total fungsi yang rendah yaitu antara 13-26 terdiri dari tujuh kabupaten/kota yaitu, kabupaten lampung barat, pringsewu, kota metro, kabupaten pesawaran, dan kabupaten pesisir barat, tulangbawang barat dan mesuji. setelah data hasil analisis skalogram, indeks sentralitas dan kepadatan penduduk selesai dilakukan skoring. selanjutnya dari ketiga hasil tersebut direkap dan diberi rangking. berdasarkan tabel 4 diketahui jumlah rangking terdiri dari 1-7 dan kota bandar lampung mendapatkan rangking yang pertama karena memiliki total skor yang paling tinggi sebanyak 14. kemudian yang mendapatkan rangking yang kedua terdapat tiga derah yaitu kabupaten lampung tengah, lampung timur dan lampung selatan dengan total skor masing-masing sebanyak 11. kabupaten lampung utara, tulangbawang dan kota metro mendapatkan rangking yang ketiga dengan total skor 9. kabupaten/kota yang mendapatkan rangking keempat yaitu kabupaten tanggamus dan way kanan dengan total skor 7, yang mendapatkan rangking kelima yaitu kabupaten pringsewu, lampung barat dan tulangbawang barat dengan total skor 6. identifikasi pusat pertumbuhan dan interaksi spasial… (zulfa emalia, isti farida) 69 tabel 4 penentuan rangking (analisis skalogram, indeks sentralitas dan kepadatan penduduk) no kab(kabuapten)/kota di provinsi lampung jumlah skor total skor rangking skor analisis skalogram skor indeks sentralits skor kepadatan penduduk 1 kota bandar lampung 4 5 5 14 1 2 kab. lampung tengah 5 5 1 11 2 3 kab. lampung timur 5 5 1 11 2 4 kab. lampung selatan 4 5 2 11 2 5 kab. lampung utara 5 3 1 9 3 6 kab. tulangbawang 5 3 1 9 3 7 kota metro 4 1 4 9 3 8 kab. tanggamus 4 2 1 7 4 9 kab. way kanan 4 2 1 7 4 10 kab. pringsewu 4 1 1 6 5 11 kab. lampung barat 4 1 1 6 5 12 kab. tulangbawang barat 4 1 1 6 5 13 kab. pesawaran 3 1 1 5 6 14 kab. mesuji 3 1 1 5 6 15 kab. pesisir barat 1 1 1 3 7 sumber: data diolah, 2017 pada rangking keenam terdiri dari kabuapten pesawaran dan mesuji dengan dengan total skor 5 dan rangking terakhir yaitu rangking ketujuh adalah kabupaten pesisir barat dengan total skor 3 kabuapten pesawaran dan mesuji dengan dengan total skor 5 dan rangking yang terakhir yaitu rangking ketujuh adalah kabupaten pesisir barat dengan total skor 3. berdasarkan hasil rangking pada tabel 4 diketahui urutan kabupaten/kota mana yang dapat dijadikan prioritas untuk menentukan wilayah pusat pertumbuhan di provinsi lampung. namun untuk memudahkan menentukan wilayah pusat pertumbuhan dalam penelitian ini akan digambarkan mengunakan aplikasi 69rcgis dengan menggabungkan beberapa alat analisis sebelumnya yaitu analisis tipologi klassen, skalogram, indeks sentralitas dengan skala ordinal. dibawah ini akan disajikan gambar peta pusat pertumbuhan di provinsi lampung dengan menggunakan aplikasi 69rcgis. gambar 1 peta pusat pertumbuhan provinsi lampung sumber: arcgis, 2017 daerah pusat pertumbuhan di provinsi lampung daerah belakang (hinterland) dari pusat pertumbuhan di provinsi lampung 70 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 1, april 2018: 61-74 tabel 5 hasil indeks gravitasi (interaksi spasial) dan rangking dengan skala ordinal kota bandar lampung sebagai pusat pertumbuhan no kab (kabupaten)/kota nilai interaksi skor rangking 1 kota bandar lampung 2 kab. pesawaran 618.639.560,0 5 1 3 kab. lampung tenggah 362.583.651,0 3 2 4 kab. lampung selatan 271.580.180,0 3 2 5 kab. pringsewu 221.053.774,0 2 3 6 kab. lampung timur 153.437.648,0 2 3 7 kota metro 57.793.514,6 1 4 8 kab. lampung utara 44.732.068,0 1 4 9 kab. tulangbawang 29.523.694,6 1 4 10 kab. tulangbawang barat 13.301.872,5 1 4 11 kab. way kanan 9.675.873,2 1 4 12 kab. tanggamus 8.612.740,9 1 4 13 kab. lampung barat 4.924.778,7 1 4 14 kab. mesuji 4.589.380,7 1 4 15 kab. pesisir barat 275.079,8 1 4 sumber: data diolah, 2017 peta pusat pertumbuhan dibuat menggunakan aplikasi 70rcgis 10.3 dengan mengklasifikasikan hasilnya menjadi dua kategori yaitu daerah yang berwarna coklat sebagai pusat pertumbuhan di provinsi lampung, dan daerah yang berwarna putih adalah daerah belakang (hinterland) dari pusat pertumbuhan di provinsi lampung. berdasarkan pada gambar 1 dapat diketahui bahwa yang menjadi pusat pertumbuhan di provinsi lampung ada tiga daerah yaitu kota bandar lampung dan kabupaten lampung tengah dan kabupaten lampung selatan. jika dihubungkan dengan dokumen rencana tata ruang wilayah (rtrw) provinsi lampung tahun 2009-2029, pada bagian ketiga paragraf kedua tentang pusat kegiatan nasional (pkn). ditetapkan kota bandar lampung menjadi wilayah pkn yang memiliki fungsi utama sebagai pusat pemerintahan provinsi, pusat perdagangan dan jasa regional, pusat distribusi dan koleksi, pusat pendukung pariwisata dan pusat perdagangan tinggi. hal ini sesuai dengan hasil yang diperoleh dalam penelitian ini yaitu kota bandar lampung sebagai wilayah pusat pertumbuhan di provinsi lampung. sedangkan untuk kabupaten lampung tengah dan lampung selatan dalam penelitian ini juga dinyatakan sebagai wilayah pusat pertumbuhan di provinsi lampung, namun dalam dokumen rencana tata ruang wilayah (rtrw) provinsi lampung tahun 2009-2029. kabupaten lampung tengah hanya masuk kedalam wilayah pusat kegiatan wilayah promosi (pkwp) yang ditujukan sebagai pusat kegiatan lokal yang dipromosikan atau direkomendasikan oleh provinsi dalam waktu 5 (lima) tahun kedepan akan menjadi pusat kegiatan wilayah (pkw). untuk kabupaten lampung selatan masuk kedalam pusat kegiatan wilayah (pkw) yang dapat mendukung kegiatan ekspor-impor wilayah pusat kegitan nasional (pkn) yaitu kota bandar lampung. sehingga antar wilayahwilayah tersebut dapat bekerja sama saling mendukung kegiatan perekonomian untuk mengurangi ketimpangan pembangunan. hasil indeks gravitasi (interaksi spasial) analisis interaksi atau gravitasi dalam penelitian ini digunakan untuk menilai kekuatan hubungan (kedekatan) antara dua daerah, dimana daerah dianggap sebagai suatu massa yang identifikasi pusat pertumbuhan dan interaksi spasial… (zulfa emalia, isti farida) 71 memiliki daya tarik menarik, sehingga akan muncul hubungan saling mempengaruhi antara kedua daerah tersebut. dalam kaitan ekonomi regional hubungan antar daerah dapat diidentifikasi sebagai interaksi ekonomi antar pusat pertumbuhan dengan daerah sekitarnya. angka interaksi yang besar menunjukkan hubungan yang erat antara pusat pertumbuhan dengan daerah sekitarnya. interaksi tersebut ditandai oleh pergerakan manusia, barang dan uang dan dapat diwujudkan dalam bentuk hubungan pelayanan ekonomi maupun sosial masyarakat di dalam wilayah tersebut. berdasarkan tabel 5 dapat diketahui bahwa, terdapat empat jumlah rangking yaitu rangking 1-4. rangking yang pertama yaitu wilayah yang memiliki nilai interaksi spasial yang tertinggi dengan wilayah pusat pertumbuhan, sehingga mendapatkan jumlah skor yang tertinggi juga. rangking yang terakhir yaitu empat merupakan daerah yang memiliki jumlah nilai interaksi spasial yang paling rendah dengan jumlah skor satu. wilayah yang mendapatkan rangking yang pertama dengan wilayah pusat pertumbuhan yaitu bandar lampung adalah kabupaten pesawaran dengan total skor lima. diikuti kabupaten lampung tenggah dan lampung selatan yang mendapatkan rangking kedua dengan jumlah skor tiga. kabupaten pringsewu dan lampung timur mendapatkan rangking ketiga dengan jumlah skor dua. untuk kabupaten/kota yang lainya mendapatkan rangking yang terakhir yaitu empat dengan mendapatkan jumlah skor satu. tabel 6 merupakan data hasil nilai interaksi spasial (gravitasi) dan hasil rangking dengan skala ordinal wilayah pusat pertumbuhan dengan daerah disekitarnya, dengan kabupaten lampung tengah sebagai wilayah pusat pertumbuhan. berdasarkan hasil tersebut dapat diketahui bahwa, terdapat lima jumlah rangking yaitu rangking 1-5. tabel 6 hasil indeks gravitasi (interaksi spasial) dan rangking dengan skala ordinal dengan kabupaten lampung tengah sebagai wilayah pusat pertumbuhan no kab (kabupaten)/kota nilai interaksi skor rangking 1 kab. lampung tengah 2 kab. lampung timur 585.631.981,90 5 1 3 kota bandar lampung 461.084.172,00 4 2 4 kota metro 409.272.936,00 4 2 5 kab. lampung utara 295.653.097,80 3 3 6 kab. pesawaran 181.185.495,30 2 4 7 kab. tulangbawang 153.931.902,90 2 4 8 kab. pringsewu 138.656.083,80 2 4 9 kab. lampung selatan 101.432.434,00 2 4 10 kab. tulangbawang barat 57.541.964,01 1 5 11 kab. tanggamus 42.078.233,77 1 5 12 kab. way kanan 28.789.974,68 1 5 13 kab. mesuji 14.043.168,38 1 5 14 kab. lampung barat 10.742.526,41 1 5 15 kab. pesisir barat 4.066.947,53 1 5 sumber: data diolah, 2017 72 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 1, april 2018: 61-74 rangking yang pertama yaitu wilayah yang memiliki nilai interaksi spasial yang tertinggi dengan wilayah pusat pertumbuhan, sehingga mendapatkan jumlah skor yang tertinggi juga. rangking yang terakhir yaitu lima merupakan daerah yang memiliki jumlah nilai interaksi spasial yang paling rendah dengan jumlah skor satu. wilayah yang mendapatkan rangking yang pertama adalah kabupaten lampung timur dengan total skor lima. diikuti kota bandar lampung dan kota metro yang mendapatkan rangking yang kedua dengan total skor empat. kabupaten lampung utara mendapatkan rangking ketiga dengan total skor tiga juga. rangking keempat dengan total skor dua terdapat empat kabupaten diantaranya yaitu kabupaten pesawaran, tulangbawang, pringsewu dan lampung selatan. pada rangking yang terakhir yaitu lima dengan jumlah skor satu mencakup enam daerah yaitu kabupaten tulangbawang barat, tanggamus, way kanan, mesuji, lampung barat dan pesisir barat. tabel 7 merupakan data hasil nilai interaksi spasial (gravitasi) dan hasil rangking dengan skala ordinal wilayah pusat pertumbuhan dengan daerah disekitarnya, dengan kabupaten lampung selatan sebagai wilayah pusat pertumbuhan. berdasarkan data tersebut dapat diketahui bahwa, kota bandar lampung memiliki nilai interaksi spasial yang tertinggi dengan jumlah skor lima dan mendapatkan rangking yang pertama. wilayah yang mendapatkan rangking empat mencakup empat kabupaten diantaranya kabupaten lampung tengah, pesawaran, lampung barat dan lampung timur dengan jumlah skornya dua. rangking yang terakhir yaitu rangking lima dengan jumlah skor satu mencakup sembilan kabupaten/kota diantaranya yaitu kabupaten pringsewu, lampung utara, tanggamus, kota metro, kabupaten tulangbawang, tulangbawang barat , way kanan, mesuji, dan pesisir barat. tabel 7 hasil indeks gravitasi (interaksi spasial) dan rangking dengan skala ordinal dengan kabupaten lampung selatan sebagai wilayah pusat pertumbuhan no kab (kabupaten)/kota nilai interaksi skor rangking 1 kab. lampung selatan 2 kota bandar lampung 273.609.299,39 5 1 3 kab. lampung tengah 101.432.434,02 2 4 4 kab. pesawaran 71.796.569,81 2 4 5 kab. lampung barat 67.471.661,02 2 4 6 kab. lampung timur 63.809.493,85 2 4 7 kab. pringsewu 36.886.781,87 1 5 8 kab. lampung utara 24.855.471,04 1 5 9 kab. tanggamus 22.078.516,61 1 5 10 kota metro 18.203.107,55 1 5 11 kab. tulangbawang 14.800.781,93 1 5 12 kab. tulangbawang barat 7.772.410,71 1 5 13 kab. way kanan 6.526.180,56 1 5 14 kab. mesuji 2.480.368,62 1 5 15 kab. pesisir barat 2.029.681,81 1 5 sumber: data diolah, 2017 identifikasi pusat pertumbuhan dan interaksi spasial… (zulfa emalia, isti farida) 73 simpulan 1. kota bandar lampung, kabupaten lampung tengah dan kabupaten lampung selatan merupakan daerah yang termasuk kategori cepat maju dan tumbuh di provinsi lampung. 2. kota bandar lampung, kabupaten lampung tengah dan kapupaten lampung selatan merupakan wilayah pusat pertumbuhan di provinsi lampung. 3. kota bandar lampung memiliki interaksi spasial tertinggi dengan kabupaten pesawaran. selain itu kabupaten lampung tengah memiliki interaksi spasial tertinggi dengan kabupaten lampung timur dan kabupaten lampung selatan memiliki interaksi spasial tertinggi dengan kabupaten lampung timur dan kota bandar lampung. daftar pustaka adisasmita, h.r. 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(2004). perencanaan pembangunan wilayah. pt bumi aksara: jakarta. todaro & smith, (2006). pembangunan ekonomi (terjemahan), edisi kesembilan, penerbit erlangga: jakarta. http://www/ jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 21 nomor 2, oktober 2020 article type: research paper financial sector performance: evidence in twelve west african countries ibrahim sorie kamara1*, siti aisyah tri rahayu2, and lukman hakim3 abstract: in most west african countries, the financial sectors are the least developed area. the absence of deep-efficient financial markets put major economic growth constraints. this study aimed to investigate the financial sector performance in twelve selected west african countries. to determine financial sector performance, a panel data semi-log model was employed. data were collected from the world bank open data page from 2004-2013. the results revealed that both variables matched the hypothesis, indicating a positive impact in the financial sector. it indicated that the variables used in this study were major players of the financial sector in the selected countries. this study recommends that because financial stability, globally and within countries, generates jobs and improves productivity, more efforts should be made to ensure an effective and developed financial sector system. it is so because limited and inadequate access to credit will limit small and medium-sized enterprises' contributions to private sector development. keywords: financial sector performance; economic growth; west africa jel classification: g19; o40 introduction the financial sector of any country is rarely mentioned as one of the major areas of improvement for its overall development (de soto, 2006). in fact, simple transactions, such as bill payments that are due, occur probably through the financial sector. another, more complex transaction, which is crucial for business transactions and investments, also takes place through the financial sector. it is the stage where the financial sector development can have the greatest impact on economic growth (levine, 1997). evidenced by the events in 2008 after the crash of the financial markets worldwide and the added threat of much more distress, it gave national governments the motivation to act. they provided buyouts larger than ever previously seen to prevent additional disasters in the financial markets that could show spillover effects over their domestic economies and trading partners’ economies (ivashina & scharfstein, 2010). these governments' actions reflected that the financial sector should not be ignored as it can undoubtedly impact a country’s economy. the financial sector’s development can assist in impeding its limitation to negatively affect their domestic economies. affiliation: 1, 2, 3 department of economics, faculty of economics and business, universitas sebelas maret, surakarta, indonesia. *correspondence: ibrahimsoriekamara216@gmail.com this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.21.2.5041 citation: kamara, i. s., rahayu, s. a. t., & hakim, l. (2020). financial sector performance: evidence in twelve west african countries. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 21(2), 199-207. article history received: 11 june 2020 reviewed: 29 june 2020 10 oct 2020 revised: 08 aug 2020 16 oct 2020 accepted: 16 oct 2020 mailto:ibrahimsoriekamara216@gmail.com http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/9004 http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp kamara, rahayu, & hakim financial sector performance: evidence in twelve west african countries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 200 thus, the importance of developed countries' financial sector for their economies is evident as they experienced a recession in the periods after the global financial crisis (cecchetti & kharroubi, 2015). moreover, there are understandable differences between developing and developed economies. it is interesting to assess whether these differences also account for the relationship between financial sector development and economic growth. the developing countries, which we chose to focus on, are located in west africa. this particular group of countries has experienced a continued increase in their economies’ growth in the last decade. it resulted from better policies aimed at improving sound macroeconomic conditions and positive external conditions, which were the surrounding markets (sosa & marle, 2013). according to (didier & schmukler, 2013), the financial sector in west african countries has improved considerably. however, it is interesting to know whether the financial sector has an added value related to their economies' growth. the theory regarding the relationship between economic growth and financial development has its foundation from the main functions of the financial sector’s influence on capital accumulation and technology development. the financial sector development is considered an improvement of its primary functions or, additionally, the reduction of barriers set by national governments that negatively impact the number of transactions conducted in the economy (balassa, 1990). because of these controversial debates, it is interesting to investigate whether the financial sector can influence economic growth. there is a need to find development regulations and macroeconomic policies that will enhance growth. this study examines the financial sector performance using a panel data analysis of twelve selected subsaharan african countries (sierra leone, liberia, ghana, nigeria, gambia, senegal, ivory coast, mauritania, burkina faso, cape verde, guinea, and mali). the choice of these developing countries is based on the fact that their economies have an average level of financial development because of their socio-economic, political, and institutional history (akinlo & egbetunde, 2010). until the reform implementation in most sub-saharan african countries in the mid-1980s, commercial banks have dominated the banking system. due to the low development level of stock and bond markets in sub-saharan africa, banks play a crucial intermediary role and represent the primary source of companies’ external capital (world bank, 2016). on the contrary, progress is made in financial sector performance even though there remains considerable scope for further developments. it was partly a result of improvements in finance's institutional framework, such as establishing commercial courts and alternative dispute resolution systems, credit reference bureaus, and macroeconomic stability (beck, brumbaugh, airoldi, carranza, coen, crawford, defeo, edgar, hancock, kay, lenihan, luckenbach, toropova, zhang, & guo, 2011). this paper aims is to verify the financial sector performance empirically in the context of 12 sub-saharan african (ssa) countries for the period 2004-2013. in detail, this study's objectives are twofold. the first is to determine whether ssa countries should seek ways to maximize the benefits of financial sector performance development while minimizing their costs. the second is to underline the fact that the financial sector can contribute to kamara, rahayu, & hakim financial sector performance: evidence in twelve west african countries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 201 providing financial development with a predominant place in these countries’ development policies. the first part of this paper presents the background and empirical foundations of the nature of financial development and economic growth, and then the second part exposes an overview of financial developments. after that, the third part is the research method, and the fourth part is the results and the interpretations that result from these foundations. the financial system's primary function is to enable resources’ allocation through space and time in an uncertain environment. financial sector development is defined as the process of strengthening and diversifying financial services’ provision to meet economic growth requirements effectively and efficiently, thereby supporting and stimulating economic growth (mongali, 2014). the financial systems may influence savings rate, investment decisions, technological innovation, and, ultimately, long-run economic growth (levine, 2004). on the one hand, according to soltani, haghighat, fanaei, and asghari (2014), the robustness of the information asymmetry, which characterizes financial markets, maybe at the origin of a failure in coordinating the allocation of savings to investment. this information asymmetry may deform investors' anticipations who prefer to invest in a less risky environment than in an uncertain and riskier environment. they do this by taking into account the degree of investor risk aversion, financial market imperfections, and the high level of transaction costs. these difficulties in the financial market and this ineffective intermediation can only slow down economic growth. furthermore, from the point of view of facts, the recent banking insolvency crises have thrown the economies into recessionary periods. this experience has given us an example of the negative impact of banking sector development on macroeconomic performance. these banking problems may transform themselves into banking or financial crises that can incur enormous costs for the whole economy. the most famous works, which marked current affairs, are king and levine (1993). these authors showed the vital role of the banking system and the financial market in economic growth development. they found a correlation between gdp (as an indicator of growth) and the financial system's size. beck, demirguc-kunt, levine, and maksimovic (2000) also proved that the development of the banking system and the financial markets might lead to economic growth, provided a few conditions are respected. it has to do with the financial system's smooth functioning, weak information asymmetry, low transaction cost, and optimal resource allocation. besides, vazakidis and adamopoulos (2009), in their joint works on developing the financial market and economic development, uncovered that the financial market's smooth functioning might favor growth. similarly, in china's context, shan and qi (2006) argued that the contribution of financial development to economic growth is interpreted as the second force after the contribution of the workers’ incomes. according to the authors, the link between the financial sphere and the economic sphere has a double sense of causality. the financial system development related to developing a banking credit distribution system to finance investments provides nominal gdp growth. they also argue that the strong economic growth registered in recent years has significantly impacted the financial system's development. kamara, rahayu, & hakim financial sector performance: evidence in twelve west african countries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 202 composition of 12 selected west african financial sectors four vital components of a financial system consist of financial institutions, financial markets, regulatory authorities, and financial instruments. however, the financial system in west africa has undergone some remarkable changes in terms of the following ownership structure, the depth and breadth of instruments employed, the number of institutions established, the economic environment, and the regulatory framework within which the system operates currently. west africa’s financial system includes banks, capital markets, insurance, pension asset managers, and other financial institutions, with the central bank as the apex institution. the banking subsector the banking subsector comprises deposit money banks, microfinance banks, primary mortgage institutions, trustees, and trust companies. in west africa, commercial banks (deposit money) are the dominant operators in the industries. they are the largest in terms of size and profitability. besides, microfinance is a financial institution established to provide credit, banking, and other financial services to designated convenient areas or communities. microfinance banks are founded to provide financial access to the poor, who are traditionally not served by conventional financial institutions. it is because the formal financial system provides services to approximately 20 percent of the economically active population, while the eighty (80) percent are excluded from access to financial services (cbn, 2008). moreover, primary mortgage institutions, also known as savings and loan companies, are specialized institutions that collect household savings and originate mortgage loans. there are currently many primary mortgage institutions in nigeria. meanwhile, trustees and trust companies are typically subsiding by banks. they provide funds and management services for organizations or individuals who set up trust funds. other services include portfolio management, investment advising, property management, and custodial services for non-pension funds. insurance industry insurance companies represent the second largest sector in the west africa financial services industry. there are over thousands of insurance companies operating in west africa. the minimum capital requirements to start an insurance company are 2 billion for life insurance companies and 8 billion for companies that provide non-life insurance, depending on the country's terms and conditions. insurance brokers also fall under this group. these companies are registered with the national insurance corporation of each country. in some of these countries, only a few controls a significant proportion of life and license premium income of the industry. like in nigeria, there are also reassurance companies within the insurance industry. there are currently five reassurance companies in nigeria. in september 2005, the federal ministry of finance and nicon increased the minimum capital base for reassurance business in nigeria to n10 billion starting from february 2007. insurance agents are representatives of insurance companies on commission. kamara, rahayu, & hakim financial sector performance: evidence in twelve west african countries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 203 capital market a capital market serves as a network of financial institutions and infrastructure that mobilizes and allocates long-term funds in the economy. the capital market affords business firms and government the opportunity to sell stocks and bonds to raise longterm funds from other economic agents' savings. according to the harrod-domar model, the sourcing of long-term funds through the capital market is essential for self-sustained economic growth. a well-functioning capital market aids the mobilization of savings for economic growth and development. the capital market encourages the efficient allocation of resources through changes in wealth ownership. in this regard, the capital market acts as a catalyst in creating a healthy private sector and facilitates the promotion of rapid capital formation. there are issuing houses within the capital market that provide residual banking services and act as intermediaries in capital market activities. they operate between the company whose shares are being sold, the regulatory authorities, and the public. issuing houses are registered with the securities and exchange commission (sec). many of the issuing houses in west africa are affiliates of banks. in west africa, stockbrokers are also involved in capital market activities. for instance, there are 581 licensed stockbrokers in nigeria. other financial institutions other financial institutions refer to discount houses, finance companies, bureau de change, and development of financial institutions and pension fund agencies in west africa. many of the private equity firms are offshoots of foreign firms. discount houses specialize in trading money market securities with the specific purpose of providing liquidity and play market-making roles for short term market instruments. meanwhile, the bureau is a company that carries out foreign exchange business on a small-scale basis. then, development finance institutions (dfts) are usually government-owned financial institutions established to finance particular government developmental programs, usually in agriculture, commerce, manufacturing, industrial sectors, and others. pension fund managers the pension fund managers were established for employees in west africa as a contributory pension scheme for payment of employees' retirement benefits to whom the scheme applies. under this act, all employees in the public service of the federation and the private sector are involved, as well as the judges and top political officeholders. the public service operates a defended and defined benefits scheme, and the payment of retirement benefits is budgeted annually. the annual budgetary allocation for pension is often one of the most important parts of the budget implementation in the light of resource constraints. this study supports the above references of mongali (2014) and beck et al. (2000), stating that the financial sector performance is viable in these twelve west african countries. in other words, this study also gives similar results to previous research supporting the kamara, rahayu, & hakim financial sector performance: evidence in twelve west african countries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 204 motion that financial sector performance plays a crucial role in developing the economy of any nation. research method data collection the study’s model consisted of four variables, with secondary yearly time series data. the variables were gross domestic product (gdp), exchange rate (er), interest rate (ir), trade openness (to), and financial development (fd). the data for these variables were sourced from the world bank databank for the period 2004-2013. specific countries were selected for this study based on the data available. the countries were sierra leone, liberia, ghana, nigeria, gambia, senegal, ivory coast, mauritania, burkina faso, cape verde, guinea, and mali. the estimated model comprised time series i and cross-sectional t panel case. model specification to achieve the financial sector performance’s aim in west africa, the study referred to some works by cecchetti and kharroubi (2012), beck et al. (2011), obradovic, sapic, furtula, and lojanica (2017), and others, which were discussed in the literature review section. panel data was employed in this study with a semi-log model. the following equation was used in the form of semi-log format and is illustrated as follows, 𝑙𝑜𝑔𝐹𝐷𝑖𝑡 = 𝛽0 + 𝛽11 𝑙𝑜𝑔𝐼𝑅𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽12 𝐸𝑅𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽13 𝑇𝑂𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽14 𝑙𝑜𝑔𝐺𝐷𝑃𝑖𝑡 + 𝜀𝑖𝑡 …………………(i) where, financial development is the ratio of private credit to gross domestic product. financial development (fd) was utilized as a proxy of the dependent variable for the 12 selected west african countries in this study, while the other variables were independent variables, such as interest rate (ir), the exchange rate (er), gross domestic product (gdp) and trade openness (to). result and discussion table 1 the estimation result of the independent variables’ effects on the financial development in the 12 selected countries in west africa table 1 reveals the fixed-effects model results. both variables matched the hypothesis, indicating a positive impact in the financial development, except for the interest rate that showed negative value. the r-squared displayed a value of (0.902818), indicating that the variables used in this study were the major players in the financial sector. it also implied that a 90,28 % variation of the independent variables could explain variation in the dependent variable (financial development). the f-statistics had a significant value of (56.35929). besides, the dw statistic had a value of (1.229386). all the variables indicate kamara, rahayu, & hakim financial sector performance: evidence in twelve west african countries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 205 significant values with the exception of interest. below is a detailed explanation of the four variables. table 1 the dependent variable is financial development independent variables coefficient t-statistics c -51.83036*** -4.097947 log(ir) -1.888509*** -5.408610 log(gdp) 2.299737*** 3.887833 er 0.009741*** 2.736512 to 0.009813*** 4.245977 r-squared 0.902818 f-statistic 56.35929 durbin-watson statistic 1.229386 note: *, ** and *** explain 10%, 5% and 1% significant level respectively gross domestic product based on the analysis of the data in this study the results of the analysis show that the level of gdp has a significant positive effect on the financial sector development with a probability value of 0.0004 <0.05. the results of this study illustrate that gdp can increase the financial sector development. it could therefore, be said that these 12 west african countries should pay more attention in the gdp for a continuous economic growth. policies which may improve the increase of gdp should be made and follow appropriately. the viability in the financial sector accelerate the economic growth development. exchange rate based on the analysis of the data in this study the results of the analysis show that the level of exchange rate has a significant positive effect on the financial sector development with a probability value of 0.0008 <0.05. the results of this study illustrate that exchange rate can also increase the financial sector development. we can therefore, say that the exchange rate in these countries contribute immensely to the financial sector development sector. the proposed plan by the ecowas heads of state to launch a single currency that is to be use by all the sixteen countries in west africa is a very good move. trade openness based on the analysis of the data in this study the results of the analysis show that the level of trade openness has a significant positive effect on the financial sector with a probability value of 0.0009 <0.05. the results of this study illustrate that to can increase the financial sector development. the results of this study are also consistent with the proposed hypothesis, stating that to have a positive relationship with the financial development in the 12 west african countries in 2004-2013. a proper to can accelerate the economic growth and open the financial development sector through foreign direct investment. the main source of foreign exchange is from to, therefore the trade openness is a big contributing factor of any country economic growth development. according to ngongang (2015), the result of his findings reveals that, trade openness of ssa countries has a positive and insignificant impact on economic growth. kamara, rahayu, & hakim financial sector performance: evidence in twelve west african countries jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 206 interest rate based on the analysis of the data in this study, the result shows that the level of interest rate does not significantly influences the financial sector development in a positive direction and the probability value is 0.1505 >0.05. the results of this study illustrate that interest rate can reduce the financial sector development. therefore, the west african region should set policies that would create ways to increase the level of real interest rates. by so doing, it would add to contribute to the economic growth development especially in the financial sector. conclusion this article aimed to determine the financial sector performance in 12 west african countries. in conclusion, there is evidence that financial sector performance positively impacted the selected 12 west african countries' economic growth. three variables indicator of financial sector performance (exchange rate, gross domestic product, and trade openness) positively influenced economic growth, while one (interest rate) indicator negatively influenced economic growth. using financial development data, we confirm our previous findings. financial sector explains the growth of finance beyond the rates predicted by the internal resources and short-term development. this is consistent with both the market and the bank-based view. the share of financial sector performance for external financing is higher in west african countries with higher levels of financial sector development, which is consistent with the financial-services view. furthermore, we find that west african countries are more likely to grow at rates that require external finance in which the contracting environment favours financial sector development. references akinlo, a. e. and egbetunde, t. 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(2009). stock market development and economic growth. american journal of applied sciences, 6(11), 1933-1941. https://doi.org/10.3844/ajassp.2009.1932.1940 http://hdl.handle.net/10986/19809 https://doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9828-9_ch1 https://doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-9828-9_ch1 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2009.12.001 https://doi.org/10.2307/2118406 https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-1678 https://doi.org/10.5755/j01.ee.28.4.14003 https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500118762 https://doi.org/10.1155/2014/857651 https://doi.org/10.1115/1.4024763 https://doi.org/10.3844/ajassp.2009.1932.1940 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 2, oktober 2018, hlm. 134-141 doi: 10.18196/jesp.19.2.5004 determinants of indonesian crude palm oil export: gravity model approach ridwannulloh, sunaryati fakultas ekonomi dan bisnis islam, universitas islam negeri sunan kalijaga yogyakarta, jl. laksda adisucipto, caturtunggal, depok, sleman, daerah istimewa yogyakarta 55281 correspondence e-mail: riduandatsmile@gmail.com received: august 2018; accepted: october 2018 abstract: crude palm oil (cpo) is a commodity in the agricultural sector with the largest contribution to the value of indonesian exports. moreover, since 2006, indonesia has become the largest cpo producer in the world. therefore, this research attempts to investigate determinants of indonesia cpo export to main trading partners using gravity model approach. this study is conducted to analyze the effect of indonesia’s gdp, gdp of indonesia’s four main trading partners, distance, the rupiah exchange rate against us dollar and domestic cpo consumption on indonesian cpo exports. the analysis technique is used in this research is panel data regression using fixed effect model. the results of this study indicate that not all variables have significant effects on indonesian cpo exports. variables such as indonesia’s gdp and gdp of major trading partners have positive and significant effect, whereas rupiah exchange rate variable and domestic consumption have negative and significant effect on indonesian cpo export. in addition, in line with gravity model, variable of distance has negative and significant effect on indonesian cpo exports. keywords: cpo exports, growth domestic product, gravity model, panel data jel classification: f10, f11, f12 introduction indonesia is one of the countries applying open economy system. an implications of open economy is observed from the use of international trade to increase the economic growth (dumairy, 1996). besides, international trade is one of the ammunitions to stimulate the growth of domestic trade (dodzin and vamvakidis, 2004). a country is trading to others with two main reasons, the first is to acquire gain form trade and the second is to obtain the economics of scale. (krugman, 2004). there are two main variables that should be considered in international trade such as export and import. export is national production which consumed for other countries while import is foreign product consumed nationally (basri et al., 2010). according to labor statistics bureau (2018), indonesian export in 2016 is approximately $us 145.18 billion, comprise of non-oil and gas at about $us 132.08 billion and oil and gas export at amount $us 13.10 billion. plantation is a prominent component from non-oil sector. plantation sector and gas sector are important and these sectors become supporting sources for indonesia’s, both income and foreign exchange. based on the data from the ministry of agricultural, during 2016, indonesian commodity export reaches 34.62 million ton or equal to $us 25.53 billion, leads to high contribution into our export which around 17.11% from total (directorate general of plantation, 2017). palm oil is one of the commodities that gives the highest contribution to export. based on association of palm oil farmer or (gapki) in 2006, indonesia is the largest palm oil distributor followed by malaysia in second place. determinants of indonesian crude palm oil export… (ridwannulloh, sunaryati) 135 source: labor of statistics bureau (2018) figure 1. primary exported countries cpo to total of indonesian cpo export palm oil sector not only as foreign exchange contributor but also could hire many potential workers during its production. the production of palm oil in indonesia mostly to be exported, only 20%-30% is used domestically. based on data from bureau labor of statistics (2018) with the average growth of export is 11.22% per year, the cpo export has grown from 6.33 million ton in 2002 to 24.46 million ton in 2015. on the average, the cpo export in indonesia is amount 74.70%. based on figure 1, it can be seen that indonesia has 10 main importing countries. india is indonesia’s the biggest importing countries with an average contribution of 29.15% from the total of indonesia’s cpo export. then followed by china, and india in the next place, with an average contribution of 11.04% annually. malaysia and the netherlands are in the third and fourth place with an average contribution 9% and 5.08% respectively. all four countries contributions to indonesia’s cpo export is about 54.27% of total indonesia’s cpo export. this research aims to analyze the impact from gdp, cpo domestic consumption, idr exchange rate against $us, the distance of indonesia with four trading partners. this research is using gravity model, a model that is developed by tinbergen (1962), this research attempts to analyze the effect of distance of four main trading partner countries using multiple regression method with fixed effect model. according to salvatore (2014), a country generally pick bigger country (by bigger gdp amount) as a trading partner compared to smaller country, a country with the closer distance avoiding the high cost of transportation, with open economic country rather than closed economic country, with almost similar background rather than one without similar background. gravity model has a basic notion which states that the bilateral trade between two countries will be positively correlated with gdp from two countries and the closer the distance of two countries (if all other things are held constant). the higher the economics of scale, the closer the distance is, then the volume of trading shall be higher (salvatore, 2007). the construction of this theory is coined from gravity law created by issac newton on physics discipline. principles of political economy and taxation (ricardo, 1817) which is explained the law of comparative absolute advantage, this theory is one of the most important law in the international trade to face any challenges in any trade practices (salvatore, 2014). according to the law of comparative absolute advantage, if one country is not efficient enough towards theother country on producing certain commodity, but it should be making good for both countries. the first country should specialize in producing and exporting commodity which has less absolute loss and importing commodity which has a more absolute loss (salvatore, 2014). india 29% others 29% china 11% netherlands 9% malaysia 5% pakistan 4% singapore 4% bangladesh 4% egypt 3% germany 2% 136 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan vol. 19, no. 2, oktober 2018: 134-141 the main source of international trade is the difference in resources having by each country that affected international trade (krugman, 2004). this theory is developed by two prominent economists from sweden, eli heckscher dan bertil ohlin thus it is famously known as heckscher-ohlin theory. it is also known as factor proportion theory and endowment factor theory. this is because the two theories emphasize in the difference of proportion factor on each country and the difference used in producing any goods (krugman, 2004). gross domestic product (gdp) is the total value of all goods and services produced by one country in a certain period of time (mankiw, 2014). gdp calculation can be calculated using three approaches, which is expenditure approach, production approach and income approach (trenggonowati, 2010). our exchange rate between two countries is the price where the people is exchanging goods (mankiw, 2014). the economists are dividing the exchange rate to real and nominal exchange rate. nominal exchange rate is the relative price from the two currencies. real exchange rate is the relative price from goods in each country. it is also known as terms of trade. the real exchange rate is calculated from total of nominal exchange rate and price rate in two countries. there is a significant negative relationship between exchange rate and export. research method data and source the analysis method that is used in this research is quantitative method with regression analysis tools taken from panel data during 1995-2016. the sample data from this research is taken from the four primary trading partners, such as india, the netherlands, malaysia and china. the variables data are gdp, exchange rate, domestic consumption, and the distance between two capital cities of two countries. the data source are from; world development indicators world bank for exchange rate and gdp. while cpo export data is taken from indonesia bureau of statistics, production and consumption of indonesian cpo data is taken from directorate general of plantation. the distance variable is using google maps in which point the distance between two countries. operational variables definition on this research, the variables are divided into two groups; dependent and independent variable. the dependent variable is export ij= the value of indonesian cpo export to four primary trading partner ($us million), while the independent variable is gdpi = indonesian gdp ($us million), gdpj = gdp from four countries ($us million). gdp is the arrow point for estimation on gravity model, because it depicts the demand and supply as a whole (tinbergen & hekscher, 1962). cons i = domestic consumption on indonesian cpo (million ton), exchange rate = rupiah exchange rate (idr/$us), dist = distance between two capital cities measured by the formula (li et al., 2008). analysis tool the analysis tool used in this research is multiple linear regressions with panel data. one of the advantages using this tool is minimize heterogeneity explicitly and give variable a specific subject. other advantages would be, give more information, add more variation and minimize collinearity among variables, thus much more efficient (gujarati, 2010). after deciding which model is the best among the common effect model, random effect model, or fixed effect model, the next step is to test statistically with t test and f test, as well with coefficient determination (r2). the below is the equation used in this research as indicated in equation (1), log-linear equation decides that the trend from i to j can be explained from economic determinants of indonesian crude palm oil export… (ridwannulloh, sunaryati) 137 power from its and to source (bergstrand, 1985). thus, the equation can be transformed to this log-linear equation is presented in equation (2), where, lnxij =log of indonesian cpo export lngdpi = log of indonesian gdp lngdpj = log of gdp from trading partners lnconsi =indonesia consumption of domestic indonesian cpo lnkursi = exchange rate idr against us$ lndistance = distance between country i &j result and discussion based on the estimation from random effect model and fixed effect model lead to a result in which can be an estimator. thus, it is needed to pick the best model by doing some of the test. chow test chow test is used to select the most appropriate model to analyze the panel data between pooled least square and fixed effect. the result of chow test can be seen from table 1. table 1. the result of chow test or likelihood ratio test f test that all u_i=0: f(3, 79) = 21.17 prob > f = 0.0000 source: author estimation, using stata14 the criteria from chow test is that if f probability less than 5% degree conclude to reject h0 or proved that fixed effect model is more appropriate than pooled least square model. based on chow test from the above, we can get the result that the f probability is f = 0.0000 or less than α (0.01). h0 is rejected and the most appropriate model that can be used is fixed effect model. hausman test hausman test is done to choose the most appropriate model in analyzing panel data between fixed-effect-model and random-effectmodel. the result from hausman test can be seen on table 2, table 2. the result of hausman test chi2(5) = (b-b)'[(v_b-v_b)^(-1)](b-b) = 13.36 prob>chi2 = 0.0202 (v_b-v_b is not positive definite) source: author estimation with stata14, 2018 the criteria from hausman test is that if the probability of chi-square is less than the degree of 5%. h0 is accepted or it can be said that fixed effect model is more appropriate than random effect model. according to the result of hausman test on the above, it is stated that probability of chi-square is 0.0202 or less than α (0.05). h0 is accepted, then fixed effect model is being used on this research. lagrange multiplier test lagrange multiplier test is done to point which model is the most appropriate on analyzing panel data between random effect model and common-effect-model. the result can be seen on table 3 as follow, table 3. the result of lagrange multiplier ̅̅̅̅̅2(01) = 65.76 prob> ̅̅̅̅̅2 = 0.0000 source: author estimation with stata14, 2018 the criteria from lagrange multiplier test is that if probability of chi-square is less than the 5% degree, so h0 is accepted, or it is proven that random effect model is more appropriate to be used than the common effect model. based on lagrange multiplier test result in table 4, the probability of chi-square is 0.0000 or less than α (0.05). ho is accepted and random effect model is chosen. from chow test, hausman test and lagrange multiplier test we can conclude that the most appropriate model to use on this research is fixed effect model. 138 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan vol. 19, no. 2, oktober 2018: 134-141 table 4. panel regression result using fixed effect model variable coef. std. err. p>t lngdpi 1.98661 1.11884 0.07970* lnggdpj 2.59407 0.50952 0.00000*** lnkurs -0.02763 0.18681 0.88280 lndistance -0.00447 0.00199 0.02730** lncons -0.34789 0.79668 0.66350 _cons -101.11099 25.26833 0.00010*** r2 0.77137 adj r2 0.74822 prob f 0.00000 n 88 legend: * p<0.1; ** p<0.05; *** p<0.01 a. the influence of indonesian gdp and four primary trading partners toward indonesia cpo export value the regression coefficients of gdp and four gdp of four main trading partners are 1.1188441 and 0.5095222. partially, the t probability is 0.079 (<α 0.1) and 0.000 (<α 0.01), thus indonesian gdp and gdp of 4 trading partners positively impact toward indonesia cpo export value. thereby the first hypothesis on this research is accepted. the result is supported by the previous research conducted by (yuniarti, 2007) which stated that the gdp from the exporter countries is positively affected indonesian export value. another research performed by (egger, 2000) also shows the positive relationship between gdp and export volume. research from (kalbasi, 2001) gdp of exporter countries measure the production capacity of the countries, the higher the gdp are, the more commodities they could produce. in addition, gdp of importing countries measure the absorption capacity. the increasing amount from gdp of importer countries leads to higher absorption capacity. the finding implicates to increase the production the gdp from each country should always be increased. according to (yuniarti, 2007) the decent situation of global economic is highly needed to lead the trading. the result is also strongly supported by the hypothesis of growth driven export which shows that the economic growth impacts on the trade. it will lead to comparative advantage in certain areas and will give its specialization to the country. the main qualification for a country to export goods is to create the decent situation that will result in a continuously economic growth (haryati & hidayat, 2015). based on research from (lee & huang, 2002) the growth of a country’s output will increase the export growth. when an economy is growing, thus a number of sectors will face a big change in terms of technology and innovation that links to human resource, transfer of technology or capital accumulation. in end, the output from one country is exceeding and has excess supply in turn the supply will be sold in other countries. b. the impact of exchange rate towards indonesian cpo export value the result from the regression coefficient of exchange rate is -0.02762789 and partially the probability of t value is 0.88 (> α 0.05). this, we can say that exchange rate is negatively affected to usd is negatively and insignificantly affected toward cpo determinants of indonesian crude palm oil export… (ridwannulloh, sunaryati) 139 export value of four trading partner. the second hypothesis is rejected. the former researcher (azizah, 2015) indicates that exchange rate has a negative and significant impact on the value of indonesian cpo export. other results come from (huda, 2017) dan (ginting, 2013) state that exchange rate has a negative and significant impact on indonesian export. on the researches exchange rate has a two-way relationship on international cpo trade, meaning when an exchange rate depreciates, while export increases and vice versa. the finding helps to strengthen the relationship between exchange rate and export-import. if rupiah appreciates toward forex, it will reduce the export value while import will increase. it happens because the domestic goods in international market become much more expensive (huda, 2017). c. the impact of domestic consumption on indonesian export value the estimation result shows the coefficient regression value of domestic consumption of -0.34788871 with t probability of 0.66 (> α 0.05). it can be concluded that domestic consumption will negatively impact the export value. it is also insignificantly affected toward the cpo export value. thus, the third hypothesis is rejected. based on the data from gapki, indonesian cpo is an export commodity so the cpo domestic consumption will not significantly affected toward indonesian cpo export. the domestic consumption of indonesian cpo is only counted for 30% from total production. in other words, 70% of indonesian cpo production is to be exported not for domestic consumption. indonesian domestic cpo consumption is much lower from the total production and cpo export. however, the volume of domestic consumption each year is increasing. the domestic consumption encompasses biodiesel, soap, and detergent (gapki, 2017). the cpo production mostly intended to be exported, only 20-30% used for domestic consumption. with an average export growth of 11-12% yearly, indonesian cpo export has experienced an increasing growth from 2002 which only 6.33 million ton to 24.64 million ton in 2015. the average of indonesian cpo export is 14.76 million ton or 74.70% of the total production. d. the influence of economic distance on indonesian cpo export value from the estimation, the value of distance is -0.0047055 with t probability of 0.0273 (< α 0.05). thus this variable is negatively and significantly affected the export value. consequently, the fourth hypothesis is accepted. figure 2. consumption and indonesian cpo export source: directorate general of plantation (2016) 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000 35,000,000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 produksi konsumsi domestik ekspor 140 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan vol. 19, no. 2, oktober 2018: 134-141 the result is supported by other researches from (rahman, 2009), (sitorus, 2009) and (yuniarti, 2007) note that, the far distance it gets between the importer and exporter country will lead to the reduction of cpo export because of the high transportation cost. conclusion based on the research, we can conclude on the below: 1. all countries gdp variables are significantly affected toward indonesian cpo export. this shows that gdp from exporter countries will measure the production rate, the higher gdp is, the more production it can produce. while gdp from importer countries is measuring the absorption capacity. this finding implicated that to reach the high trade volume needs to increase the capacity from each country. another thing we can see is the decent situation of global trade is highly needed to increase the international trade value. 2. idr exchange rate against $us has negative and insignificant effects on indonesian cpo export value. in this research, the relationship between idr exchange rate and cpo has a two-way relationship. 3. the effect of domestic consumption is negative and insignificant on indonesian cpo export value. the consumption is much lower compared to the production and exported cpo. as a result, we can see the increasing domestic consumption per year which encompasses some industries, only 20-30% production is used for domestic consumption. 4. the distance variable has negative and significant effects on indonesian cpo export value. the more distance of country importers, the cpo export reduces to some degrees because of the higher transportation cost. if there is a takeaway from this research, it would be for all the linked institutions such as, directorate general of plantation, gapki, monetary authority or government that is expected to notice the movement of indicated variables on export value of indonesian cpo. for monetary authority it is expected to have the tight inspection on idr fluctuations that give an impact on indonesian cpo. in addition, the government needs to conduct proactive policy to stimulate cpo production to become readygoods or half-ready goods in order not merely rely on cpo export. references azizah, n. (2015). analisis ekspor crude palm oil (cpo) indonesia di uni eropa tahun 2000-2011. economics development analysis journal, 4(3), 301–307. basri, faisal dan munandar, h. (2010). dasardasar ekonomi internasional. jakarta: kencana. bergstrand, j. h. (1985). the gravity equation in international trade: some microeconomic foundations and empirical evidence. the review of economics and statistics, 67(3), 474. https://doi.org/10.2307/1925976 directorate general of plantation (2017). http://epublikasi.setjen.pertanian.go.id/e publikasi/outlook/2017/outlook%20kela pa%20sawit%202017/files/assets/basichtml/page73.html, retrieved on 30 october 2018. dodzin, s., and vamvakidis, a. (2004). trade and industrialization in developing economies. journal of development economics, 75(1), 319–328. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2003.08. 006 dumairy. (1996). perekonomian indonesia. jakarta: erlangga. egger, p. (2000). a note on the proper econometric specification of the gravity determinants of indonesian crude palm oil export… (ridwannulloh, sunaryati) 141 model. economics letters, 66(1), 25–31. https://doi.org/10.1016/s01651765(99)00183-4 ginting, a.m. (2013). pengaruh nilai tukar terhadap ekspor indonesia. buletin ilmiah litbang perdagangan, 7(1), 1–18. gujarati, d.n. (2010). dasar-dasar ekonometrika, edisi kelima. jakarta: salemba empat. haryati, s.n., dan hidayat, p. (2015). analisis kausalitas antara ekspor dan pertumbuhan ekonomi di asean plus three. ekonomi dan keuangan, 2(6), 336– 352. huda, e.n. (2017). determinan dan stabilitas ekspor crude palm oil indonesia. jurnal ekonomi dan bisnis, 20(1), 45–66. kalbasi, h. (2001). the gravity model and global trade flows. in 75th international conference on policy modeling for european and global issues, brussels. july, 5–7. krugman, p.r. (2004). ekonomi internasional, teori dan kebijakan. jakarta: indeks. lee, c.h., and huang, b.n. (2002). the relationship between exports and economic growth in east asian countries: a multivariate threshold autoregressive approach. journal of economic development, 27(2), 45–68. li, k., song, l., zhao, x. (2008). component trade and china’s global economic integration. united nations university, world institute for development economics research. mankiw, n.g. (2014). pengantar ekonomi makro: edisi asia. jakarta: salemba empat. rahman, m.m. (2009). australia’s global trade potential: evidence from the gravity model analysis. oxford business & economics conference program. retrieved from https://eprints.usq.edu.au/5537/1/rahm an_obec_09_pv.pdf ricardo, d. (1817). principles of political economy and taxation. london: john murray, albemarle-street. salvatore, d. (2014). ekonomi internasional edisi kesembilan buku 1. jakarta: salemba empat. sitorus, m. (2009). peningkatan ekspor cpo dan kakao di bawah pengaruh liberalisasi perdagangan (suatu pendekatan model gravitasi). institut pertanian bogor. tinbergen, j., and hekscher, a. (1962). shaping the world economy. suggestions for an international economic policy [with forew. bf a. hekscher]. twentieth century fund. trenggonowati. (2010). teori makroekonomi. yogyakarta: bpfe ugm. yuniarti, d. (2007). analisis determinan perdagangan bilateral indonesia pendekatan gravity model. jurnal ekonomi pembangunan kajian ekonomi negara berkembang, 2(12), 99–109. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 2, oktober 2017, hlm. 124-141 doi: 10.18196/jesp.18.2.4036 impact of profit-loss sharing financing on poverty alleviation of shrimp farmers in tulang bawang regency (case study: kemitraan bumidipa) shofiyanto1, muhammad findi.2, salahuddin el ayyubi2 1faculty of economics and business, universitas gadjah mada, indonesia jln. sosio humaniora no.1 bulaksumur, yogyakarta, 55281 indonesia correspondence e-mail: shofiyanto.sy2@gmail.com 2faculty of economics and management, institut pertanian bogor, indonesia jl. agatis, center wing 2nd floor, ipb dramaga campus, bogor west java indonesia correspondence e-mail: muhammadfindi73@yahoo.com received: july 2017; accepted: october 2017 abstract: this research aimed to describe the core values of kemitraan bumidipa as sharia microfinance program that applies profit-loss sharing scheme, to elaborate the main obstacles that might cause the failure of the program, to analyze the effectivity of its financing, and to analyze the impact of financing on poverty alleviation of shrimp farmers in rawajitu timur district, tulang bawang regency. descriptive analysis, qualitative analysis and poverty indices are used as the analysis methods. the result shows that, on the one hand, the core values of kemitraan bumidipa are the real profit sharing system, professional financial services, and the investment guarantee model for its financing. on the other hand, the risks faced by the program are the the unstable environment of shrimp farming, technical problems, the shrimp’s price fluctuation, and moral hazard behavior. according to effectivity analysis, overall this program has been effective. based on poverty indices result, sen index of farmers increase after becoming members of kemitraan bumidipa as the result of the failure of farmers’ cultivation. as recommendation, it should be a supervision mechanism to prevent the members from moral hazard act and it’s neccessary for further research particularly related to the unstable environment of shrimp farming and the fluctuation of shrimp’s price. keywords: effectivity, islamic microfinance, poverty, profit-loss sharing financing, sen index jel classification: f10, f15, c43 abstrak: penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mendeskripsikan nilai inti dari kemitraan bumidipa sebagai program microfinance syariah yang menerapkan skema bagi hasil, menganalisis efektifitas pembiayaannya, menguraikan hambatan-hambatan yang dapat menyebabkan kegagalan program, serta dampak pembiayaan terhadap pengentasan kemiskinan petani tambak di kecamatan rawajitu timur, tulang bawang. metode analisis yang digunakan adalah analisis deskriptif, analisis kualitatif dan indeks kemiskinan. hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa, di satu sisi, nilai inti dari kemitraan bumidipa adalah sistem bagi hasil berbasis profit aktual, pelayanan finansial profesional, dan adanya model jaminan investasi. sementara itu, risiko-risiko yang dihadapi kemitraan bumidipa adalah ketidakstabilan lingkungan budidaya udang, faktor teknis, ketidakstabilan harga udang, serta penyimpangan dari anggota. menurut analisis efektivitas, secara keseluruhan pembiayaan sudah tergolong efektif. sementara menurut analisis indikator kemiskinan, justru terjadi kenaikan pada sen index (p2) setelah petani tambak menjadi anggota kemitraan sebagai akibat kegagalan budi daya. sebagai rekomendasi, perlu adanya mekanisme pengawasan untuk mencegah anggota dari perilaku menyimpang serta perlu adanya penelitian lanjutan terutama yang berhubungan dengan ketidakstabilan dari lingkungan budidaya dan harga udang. kata kunci: efektivitas, microfinance syariah, kemiskinan, pembiayaan bagi hasil, sen index klasifikasi jel: f10, f15, c43 mailto:shofiyanto.sy2@gmail.com impact of profit-loss sharing financing on poverty … (shofiyanto, m. findi, s. el ayyubi) 125 introduction indonesia is a maritim country that possess great potential in the fisheries sector. it can be seen from the fact that indonesia is the largest archipelagic state in the world which has 17,504 islands and coastline length of 104,000 km (bakosurtanal 2006). the total area of sea itself is around 3,544 million km2, or approximately 70% of the territory of indonesia (ditjen p2hp, 2011). these geographical conditions show that indonesia has a large fishery resources. in fact, contradictive condition happened with coastal societies as main actors of fisheries sector compared to its potential. in 2011, the central statistics beaureau (bps) recorded the number of poor fishermen in indonesia reached 7.87 million, or about 25.14% of its total poor population (jannah 2014). according to fauzi (2000), it is generally recognized that the main cause of global fisheries crisis is the poor management of fisheries that can be seen from the prominent phenomena, namely overcapacity and habitat destruction. these factors then could arise several problems, such as the massive subsidies, poverty, overfishing, etc. this condition becomes a big challenge for anyone who is involved on fisheries sector, especially for the developing country like indonesia where the social, political, economic, and demographic condition that doesn’t support the fisheries development. therefore, it is not surprising as the decades of this nation's independence, the fisheries sector has not shown its movement, although the physical and geographical potential of fish resources in indonesia is far better than countries in asia. this poverty problem could also be determined as the result of the limited access to capital. there is a reciprocal relationship between the poor when associated with access to capital. the coastal societies couldn’t access the capital because they are poor, and as they are not able to access it they remain poor. according to maarif (2008) in ariansyach (2009), some factors that causes the poverty on coastal societies are the limited access to capital and cultural subsistence or work merely to meet the daily basic-needs. there are some definitions related to the term of poverty. according to central bureau of statistic (bps), poverty is seen as an economic inability to meet the basic needs of food and nonfood categories, measured by expenditure approach. therefore, bps concluded that the people are categorized as poor if the average of their monthly-expenditure per capita for each month is below the poverty line. the poverty line is the combined concept of food poverty line (gkm) and non-food poverty line (gknm). while the board of national population and family planning (bkkbn) defines poverty as a family welfare concept. bkkbn devides the criteria of families into five stages: preprosperous family (pre-ks), prosperous family i (ks i), prosperous family ii (ks ii), prosperous family iii (ks iii), and prosperous family iii plus (ks iii-plus). in this case, bkkbn defines preprosperous family as a very poor family and prosperous family i as poor family (beik et al. 2013). sajogyo (1996) revealed that poor concept is not limited to the inability to meet the the physical or biological needs, but also related to the inability of a person to live and function as "standard" in their communities. one consequence of this concept is that the poverty measurement becomes relative, which is changed from time to time. this change is not only about the price change, but a change in what people need for a decent live from time to time in a developing society. the concept of poverty in islam refers to the notion of absolute poverty has been evolved which is measured by the inability to meet basic needs. furthermore, the islamic concept of 126 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 2, oktober 2017: 124-141 absolute poverty is built on two indicators of material poverty and spiritual poverty. material poverty is based on the inability to meet the material needs, while the spiritual poverty is based on the inability to meet the minimum spiritual needs such an implementation of compulsory worship. when a household experiences material poverty and spiritual poverty, the household can be said to suffer absolut poverty (beik et al., 2013). actually, various attempts have been undertaken by the government in order to tackle this matter. several policies were implemented directly, for instance the expansion of the industry, modernization of fishing gear, and capital assistance such as farming credit (kut), business credit (kur), credit for micro and small business (kumk), community development partnership program (csr). unfortunately, those programs were still aid purpose only, rather than the financing program. while the low access of coastal societies to capital and market have caused them prefer to deal with non-formal financial institutions such a loan shark. it just trapped them into more difficult situation. this condition could be a vicious cycle that causes powerlessness of coastal societies (ariansyach, 2009). the shortage in the credit system that has been done by the government and financial institutions should be evaluated in order to get other financing alternatives that are better suited for fisheries sector. credit or financing system offered should be relevant to the conditions of coastal communities. one of the solutions for the problem is islamic financing system. islamic financing system oriented on improving the welfare may give a new hope to the future of farmers, particularly in the field of fisheries. according to undang-undang no. 21 tahun 2008 about islamic banking, financing is the provision of funds or bill equivalent with the form of the profit and loss sharing in the form of mudharabah and musyarakah, leasing transactions in the form of ijarah or hire purchasing in the form of ijarah muntahiya bittamlik, purchasing transactions in the form of murabaha, salam, and istishna’, debt transaction in the form of receivables qardh and leasing service transaction in the form of ijarah for multiservice transactions based on agreement between islamic bank and / or the sharia business unit (uus) and other parts that obligates the part required financing and / or given the facility of funds to repay the funds after a certain period of time in exchange for ujrah, without compensation, or profit sharing. in general, the islamic financial system generates two types of financing design, those are debt financing and equity financing (ghafar and ismail 2006). financing in the form of debt such as murabahah and ijarah use mark-up schemebased, whereas capital financing such as mudharabah and musharakah use the profit-loss sharing (pls). profit-loss sharing itself as a form of financing is preferred because it can boost the economy in the real sector and contains the values of justice, especially in the distribution of profits and losses for the parties involved. based on its history, the profit-loss sharing scheme in business partnership actually has been implemented long time ago. it is commonly conducted by people of mecca and medina long before islam was revealed through the prophet muhammad. in medina, profit-loss sharing system was widely applied in the form of cooperation on agriculture and trading sector as well as livestock raising. afzalurrahman (1997) stated that the quraysh had excellent trade knowledge and gain a huge profit from it. trading was performed in various forms, as well as its business organization. syirkah (cooperation) was conducted in several forms, where the owners of capital could be directly involved in the business or simply become sleeping partner, impact of profit-loss sharing financing on poverty … (shofiyanto, m. findi, s. el ayyubi) 127 and that way, they shared in the profits and losses (mudaraba). in indonesia, the practice of business activities based on islamic principles has also already been applied by farmers like maro and mertelu system. this makes the application of the islamic financing system seems not to be a difficult thing for farmers, but provides a greater profit for them and offer more justice for all parties involved (anjani, 2013). profit-loss sharing system in the financial sector (bank) was begun with the establishment of a local bank in mit ghaur village in 1963. although closed after several years, it inspired the first conference of islamic economics in mecca in 1975. then the islamic development bank (idb) was born and followed by the establishment of islamic financial institutions in various countries. in indonesia, sharia bank was first established in 1992, namely bank muamalat indonesia (soemitra, 2009). furthermore, the development of islamic financial institutions in indonesia is continued widely till now. yousfi (2013) stated that the financing contract using profit-loss sharing principle, especially mudharabah is able to overcome the problem of moral hazard in the financing because it provides a very strong incentive mechanism in cases where there is a risk of failure of an organization. this kind of funding would trigger the fund manager (mudharib) to give maximum effort on the business. however, the profit-loss sharing model may face some obstacles on its implementation. according sutriso (2008), the profit-loss sharing system is still very weak compared to mark-up financing system such a murabahah. it is inseparable from the constraints in implementation, both in terms of shahibul mal (investor) and mudharib (client). the constraints faced by shahibul mal is related with agency problem, high level of risk, technical terms, financing that is only on short term, and the ineffectiveness of profit-loss sharing financing. while the constraints on mudharib includes moral standards, lack of freedom in term of running the business, as well as the cost and efficiency problems. these constraints will certainly affect the performance of the financing itself. various studies discussed about microfinance and its effect on various aspects of the economy. some of the research related to the impact of microfinance program on coastal societies income. ariansyach (2009) stated that microfinance program that gave capital to fishermen had real influence on the enhancement of their income. there are significance rise of participants’ business revenue as the result of capital increase from the program. another study, conducted by rodiana (2014), discussed about the effectivity of the sharia microfinance program that apply murabahah and yarnen on farmers. the result showed that implementation yarnen system in this program was been effective at all stages of financing and had positive impact on its members’ business. effendy (2013) compared the role between conventional microfinance and sharia microfinance in case of poverty alleviation. the result revealed that both types of institutions had a positive effect on poverty reduction. but the effect of the islamic financial institutions was slightly better than conventional financial institutions. filtration system used by islamic microfinance had a significant impact on its ability to avoid credit risks faced by conventional one, as well as client business development. other studies try to analyze the effectivity of financing, especially in microfinance field. according to anjani (2013), basically the effectivity refers to a success or achievement of objectives. effectiveness can be described by 4 criteria (agustina, 2010): 128 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 2, oktober 2017: 124-141 1. doing things right according to the plan and the rules. 2. achieving a level above the competitors or able to be better than competitors. 3. giving the results when what is conducted provide benefits to people other party. 4. able to handle future challenges. according to aryanti (2006) in azzahrah (2014), effectivity of financing could be assessed from the procedure of financing and its impacts to business conditions. financing procedure consists of application, lending and repayment process, while the financial impacts could be measured from the increase of revenue, profit, and business conditions. according to ita and rahman (2011), there are three important stages in the mudharabah financing procedure. those are the analysis and financing evaluation, the application and approval of financing. islamic financing model that applies profitloss sharing has been widely developed in indonesia. especially in term of microfinance for coastal societies, there are a lot of financing schemes provided to set an inclusive and affordable financial services. one of those is a financing program for shrimp farmers operating in the east rawajitu district, namely kemitraan bumidipa. this is a financing program for shrimp farmers that applies profit-loss sharing system in the district of east rawajitu, tulang bawang regency. therefore, it’s needed to assess whether the financing system for fisheries business has been effective, in term of being able to afford them and able to provide the benefits. it’s also needed to be examined whether the profit-loss sharing financing is able to give positive effect on the welfare of the fisheries business, and contribute on poverty alleviation on this society. thus, purposes of this research are formulated as follow: 1. describe the background, system, core value of kemitraan bumidipa as one of the sharia microfinance program that applies profit-loss sharing scheme. 2. elaborate the main obstacles that might cause the failure of the program 3. analyze the effectivity of financing based on its member perspective. 4. analyze the impact of profit-loss sharing financing on poverty alleviation of shrimp farmers in rawajitu timur district, tulang bawang regency. research method population and sample the research was conducted at kemitraan bumidipa program that operates in the east rawajitu district, tulang bawang regency, lampung province. this study uses primary data and secondary data that are both quantitative and qualitative. primary data were obtained from in-depth interviews with key informants and respondents. there are 5 informants in this study. one of them is from the management of kemitraan bumidipa and the rest are from external parties that is still related to the program. the respondents consisted of 100 members of the program. secondary data were obtained from the ministry of fisheries and maritime affairs, the central bureau of statistics, books, journals, theses related and other data that support the availability of data. data analysis miles and huberman model this study used a qualitative approach to the analysis of miles and huberman model, especially in processing the results of the key informant information and related literature. miles and huberman (1984) in sugiyono (2010) suggested that activity in the qualitative data analysis performed interactively and lasted impact of profit-loss sharing financing on poverty … (shofiyanto, m. findi, s. el ayyubi) 129 continuously until it is completed, so that the data is already saturated. data analysis stages are consisted of data reduction, data display, and conclusion drawing / verification. likert scale likert scale are used to measure attitudes, opinions and perceptions of a person or group of people on social phenomena. this is the consideration of the use of likert scale in this study. the next step is to do the scoring on the data to be classified and grouped in the categoryspecific categories. the determination of the total score for each category is as follows: total score = total respondent’s x score per category the respondents' assessments for the effectivity of kemitraan bumidipa financing could be examined from 4 aspects, namely the application process, realization of financing, repayment of financing, and its impact perceived by members. the total score for each procedure is ranged between 100 and 300. this score is obtained by calculating the lowest and highest scores with the number of questions in each procedure and also the number of respondents. while the interval for each category is obtained from the difference between the total score divided by the highest possible response categories and it’s then reduced by 1 (sugiyono 2011). (1) the interval for every category is 199. based on this result, the categories are classified as follows: 1. not effective if total scores between 300 and 499 2. quite effective if total scores between 500 and 699 3. effective if total scores between 700 and 900 the results of the assessment will provide a conclution of the effectivity for every stage of financing managed by kemitraan bumidipa to their members. finally, it will be give some recommendations that might be useful to improvement of the program. poverty analysis headcount ratio headcount ratio index (h) measures the number of shrimp farmers whose income was below the poverty line as a percentage of the population observed. the poverty line used were household poverty line per month, which is calculated based on individual poverty line and then converted to household poverty line per month. formula for measuring headcount ratio is as follows: h = (2) where: h = headcount ratio q = number of shrimp farmers that was q below the poverty line n = number of observation the family poverty line is obtained by multiplying the poverty line per capita per month with the average of family size. the poverty line of tulang bawang regency in 2014 is rp 307,348.96, per capita per month. the average amount of household is the result of the ratio of the total population by the number of households in tulang bawang regency. in 2014, the total population of tulang bawang regency is 423,710 inhabitants and the number of households is 116,919. the average amount of household = total population tulang bawang / number of households: 423,710 / 116,919 =3.624 130 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 2, oktober 2017: 124-141 so, the household poverty line of tulang bawang regency is: k =the poverty line per capita per month x the average amount of household =rp 307,348.96, x 3.624 =rp 1,113,833, per household per month (3) the purpose of the headcount ratio index as analysis tools in this research is to measure the number of shrimp farmer households who are under the poverty line and its changes after they got financial services from the program. poverty gap index and income gap index the poverty gap index and income gap index measure of the intensity of poverty. it is defined as the average poverty gap in the population as a proportion of the poverty line. the formula is as below p1 = ∑ (4) where: p1 = poverty gap index z = poverty line yi = income of household-i q = number of households that are below the poverty line (poor households) i= ∑ ( ) (5) where: i =income gap ratio gi =the gap between poverty line and poor household income q = number of poor households z = poverty line sen index sen index of poverty or poverty severity index is used to explain the inequality of income among the poor (clark et al., 1981). formula for sen index: p2 = h [ ( ) ] (6) where: h = headcount ratio i = income-gap ratio gp = gini coefficient of poor households research framework fisheries is the sector that has huge potential in indonesia. it can be understood from the fact that indonesia is a maritime country that is rich in its resources. one of the main important factors needed by fisheries business to support the development of this sector is capital. however, characteristics of coastal societies that is still poor created a barrier to access it. therefore, it’s necessary to find a financing model that is affordable and suitable with the criteria of coastal societies. profit-loss sharing financing applied by sharia microfinance institution is believed to be one of the solution for this problem. this scheme offers a fair transaction for fisheries business as it shares risks and profit that may happen in business. in the end, there is a need to evaluate the effectiveness of the financing that has been implemented in every stage in order to assess its attainment. besides, it should be outlined the factors that could cause the failure of the program. finally, it will be analyzed how profitloss sharing financing might contribute on poverty alleviation for coastal societies as it is expected to increase their income and business. results and discussion description of kemitraan bumidipa dipasena is a shrimp aquaculture area located in east rawajitu district, tulang bawang regency, lampung with 16 250 hectares on width. this area is divided into eight villages, namely bumi sentausa, bumi dipasena utama, bumi dipasena agung, bumi dipasena jaya, bumi dipasena mulia, bumi dipasena makmur, bumi dipasena sejahtera, and bumi dipasena impact of profit-loss sharing financing on poverty … (shofiyanto, m. findi, s. el ayyubi) 131 abadi. every village is consisted of 2 blocks and each of them is divided into 6 sub-bloc (equivalent with rw). dipasena was operational area of p.t. dipasena citra darmaja partnership formerly. however, as the company went bankrupt, dipasena is managed independently by the farmers there. over the past few years, dipasena farmers got major problem related to shrimp’s cultivation. this is mainly due to difficulty in getting access to capital from financial institutions for the cultivation, in addition to the lingering illness of shrimp aquaculture. the absence of capital is caused by the difficulty for farmers which are poor in majority to provide required collateral for shrimps’ cultivation. these constraints led to the decreased of farmers’ productivity. this problem, then triggered p3uw (association of dipasena’s shrimp farmers) as the organization of shrimp farmers there to set the right partnership model to be applied for the shrimp farmers. after conducting long study and discussion, p3uw through kpbd (cooperative of dipasena’s shrimp farmers) established p.t. bumidipa in 2013. the management of this company are the professionals recruited by p3uw. p.t. bumidipa has a working structure that provides services in three main areas, namely: a. operations and marketing. the services provided in this area include: 1. cultivation, harvesting and postharvesting. 2. consulting services to partners and farmers regarding shrimp cultivation. 3. maintenance of production facilities. 4. research and development b. finance and others. the service provided in this area include: 1. administration and investment. 2. transaction management for farming and non-farming field. 3. administration for supporting facilities of production. c. community development. the services provided in this area are include: 1. non-farming management 2. the development of education and health quality of society 3. maintenance of public and social facilities 4. the development of social environment p.t. bumidipa, along with p3uw and kpbd then, set a program called kemitraan bumidipa. it provides financing addressed for the shrimp farming in dipasena. it applies profitloss sharing system based on islamic teaching. profits are shared between the investors, management, and farmers. the program is committed on welfare of farmers in the partnership. it could be seen from the percentage of profit for shrimp farmers, which is the highest one among other parties. the ratio of profit is set on 80% for farmers, 15% for investors, and 5% for the management of the program and it’s based on net profit of the farming-business. kemitraan bumidipa also shows commitment in enforcing the sharia compliance with imposing zakat for farmers at the end of every business period. the amount of zakat is according to money zakat. the proportion of zakat is 2.5% of gross profit from shimp farming business. on its management, the capital given to the farmers isn’t by money, but in the form of saprotam (input for shrimp cultivation) such as shrimp seed, shrimp feed, and fertilizer. it’s given regularly based on the needs of farmers during cultivation period. the purpose of this mechanism is to ensure that the capital provided is used for productive purposes and facilitate the partners so that they are no longer need to think about procurement of saprotam. besides, 132 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 2, oktober 2017: 124-141 management of kemitraan bumidipa is committed to provide cheap input for shrimp cultivation, but high on its quality. as this input will be operational cost for farming business, the less of the cost the higher the profit could be. indeed, that become an advantage for the members of kemitraan bumidipa. in order to deal with the investment guarantees problem, management of program set cru (reserve of business ratio) fund, which is imposed on members who succeed in their business. the cru ratio itself is 10% of operational cost. this fund is used to cover the losses from failed members in the business, so that they don’t bear the loss and capital isn’t reduced. the cru mechanism is a form tabarru (bear each other) and ta'awun (help each other) among farmers. furthermore, to overcome the weak accounting system, kemitraan bumidipa collaborates with sharia bank in managing its capital. with this collaboration, the program will be able to manage its finance to be accountable, professional, and transparent for shrimp farmers. the benefit for sharia bank is from investors endowment fund as well as cash transactions in the program. the overall calculation of profit-loss system in kemitraan bumidipa program is described in figure 1. based on the figure, total revenue of farmers’ business is deducted by operating costs of cultivation to get gross profit, which further reduced again by cru pieces (10% of operational cost) and zakat (2.5% of gross profit). the result of this reduction, called net profit, is then shared with a percentage of 80% for farmers, 15% of investors, and 5% for management. the obstacles of kemitraan bumidipa success kemitraan bumidipa is set to be an alternative of financing for shrimp farmers in dipasena as they couldn’t access it from formal capital institution. it’s expected that the capital given will stimulate shrimp farming performance in order to be successful. however, on its application, there are some factors that might cause failure of the program. these factors are as follows: a. farming environment in recent periods the productivity of shrimp farming were sharply decreased due to environment factors. basically, shrimp cultivation are vulnerable to changes in natural conditions such as changes in the weather, the season and the condition of pond. dipasena environment is untreated well so it caused problems such as water pollution and made cultivation be not conducive. besides, the majority of shrimp farmers still rely on the chemicals product that contribute to environmental pollution. the emergence of shrimp disease as a derivation of the polluted environment became main cause of cultivation failure. currently, shrimps were attacked by a disease called white feces disease (telek putih) that is caused by virus. this virus spreads rapidly and usually affects the shrimp aged 20-30 days. the symptoms are the shrimps wouldn’t be fed, particularly in the evening and shortly floating white feces on the water. then, many shrimps died before harvest time. while the shrimp farmers don’t have accurate diagnosis to tackle the problem, it causes the loss of their farming business. b. technical problem infrastructure and technical problem also have contribution on the failure of shrimp cultivation of members. limited infrastructure and farming technique that is only based on the farmers experience caused the shrimp cultivation process do not meet its standard operational prosedure. as the impact of profit-loss sharing financing on poverty … (shofiyanto, m. findi, s. el ayyubi) 133 consequence, it’s hard to control and predict the result of shrimp farming business. c. shrimp price fluctuation another factor which caused the failure of shrimp farming business in general is fall in shrimp prices. that is mainly due to the oversupply of shrimps in domestic market. on the other hand, the operational cost of shrimp cultivation remains constant. as the result, net income received by shrimp farmers reduced dramatically. according to amri and kanna (2008), vaname shrimp price in the domestic market is still fluctuating at the moment looks very high. when it was first cultivated in indonesia, the price of vaname shrimp could reach rp 70,000 / kg, even more. however, as many farmers switched to cultivate this shrimp, the price then falls as the the effect of oversupply. d. moral hazard problem member’s dishonesty is a serious problem facing the partnership bumidipa. as explained before, the member who suffered losses in farming business do not bear the risk as the result of cru mechanism. finally, there are some members who conducted moral hazard act such as falsify their farming result and sold saprotam (feed, drugs) provided to external parties without any confirmation to management. these practices are not only cause the loss for kemitraan bumidipa, but also the other members as a result of the decline in the program's ability to finance them. actually, moral hazard problem may also arise because of the difficulty to supervise all members of the the program that spread randomly in dipasena. sadr and iqbal (2000) stated that the strategies to minimize the problem of moral hazard were the increase intensive supervision and monitoring of the implementation of the project or business. the effort is still required even though the aggreement among the parties involved has done well. monitoring would be considered as extra costs but it should also be seen as an investment to build a knowledge base about the quality of entrepreneurs and projects. it is also in line with ahmed (2000) who found that random auditing produces an incentive structure in reducing the moral hazard problem. in addition to the threat and reward or penalty, random audits also provide incentives for businesses to not report a lower profit than the actual situation. analysis of effectivity on profit-loss sharing financing program analysis of effectivity on financing managed by kemitraan bumidipa is examined based on the perception of its members. in this study, the effectiveness of the program are assested based on 4 aspects/stages, namely the application process, realization process, repayment of financing, and its impact perceived by members. analysis of effectivity on application aspect the application process is the first stage that has to be fulfilled by shrimp farmers who want to be members of kemitraan bumidipa. the indicators used in this stage are the requirements of application, the procedure of financing, and the investment given by members in order to get financial services. 134 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 2, oktober 2017: 124-141 table 1. analysis of financing effectivity on application stage no. indicator score a (3) score b (2) score c (1) total 1 requirement of application 99 1 0 299 2 procedure of financing 95 5 0 294 3 minimum amount of investment 100 0 0 300 total score 893 source: primary data; score 1, score 2, score 3 (respondent) where: score 1 for answer (number 1) difficult, (number 2) slow, (number 3) high score 2 for answer (number 1, 2, dan 3) moderate score 3 for answer (number 1) easy, (number 2) fast, (number 3) low based on table 1 it is clearly stated that, the requirements of application process on kemitraan bumidipa is relatively easy. the shrimp farmers only needed a photocopy of id card, letter of recommendation from the local village, and sharia bank account that has been provided by management of the program in order to apply the financing. furthermore, there is a requirement to open the syariah mandiri bank account with certain balance. one of the main purpose of the account is as investment for the members. this fund is then collected and managed by the management. besides, the existence of this account also makes the accounting system of the program be more professional and transparent. from table 1, all respondents said that the minimum investment needed to open account is relatively low, which is only rp200.000, to get financing with amount approximately of rp 40 million. overall, the application process of kemitraan bumidipa is effective with score of 893. analysis of effectivity on realization aspect in this study, the assessment of the effectiveness of the realization stage is determined by 3 indicators, namely the realization of financing (procurement of financing), the administrative costs during the realization of financing or upon saprotam procurement, as well as the ability of the program to meet the financing needs. table 2. analysis of financing effectivity on realization stage no. indicator score a (3) score b (2) score c (1) total 1 realization of financing 61 20 19 242 2 administration cost 100 0 0 300 3 ability to fulfil financing need 73 27 0 273 rata-rata score 815 source : primary data; score 1, score 2, score 3 (respondent) where : score 1 for answer (number 1) slow, (number 2) high, (number 3) able score 2 for answer (number 1, 2, and 3) moderate score 3 for answer (number 1) fast, (number 2) low, (number 3) unable table 2 shows that 19% of respondents said that the idle time of financing realization is relatively long with more than 1 month since it is proposed, and 20% of respondents said that the impact of profit-loss sharing financing on poverty … (shofiyanto, m. findi, s. el ayyubi) 135 idle time is moderate with a month. while 61% of respondents said that the financing realization is quite fast with less than a month. this is because the limited amount of the capital to fund a lot of members simultaneously. so, the management set the rotation of capital among its member and it causes idle time for realization process. in terms of program ability to fulfill financing need, as many as 27% of respondents said that the amount of capital given has barely fitted members’ need on financing. while 73% of respondents consider that this program is capable to fulfill the financing need. overall, kemitraan bumidipa is relatively effective in realization stage with score 815. analysis of effectivity on repayment aspect in kemitraan bumidipa, repayment of financing is not conducted by paying money directly as applied by financial institutions in general. however, it is done by selling their crops through the management to the buyer at the end of the cultivation period (harvest). the maximum period for cultivation is about 85 days, which is determined by management. then, the calculation of profit sharing could be done as describe previously. therefore, the effectivity of kemitraan bumidipa in repayment stage can be determined by several indicators, namely the amount of deduction in calculation of net income from the revenue (cru, infaq, and other dues), the period of cultivation set, as well as the profit proportion for management and investor. table 3. analysis of financing effectivity on repayment stage no. indicator score a (3) score b (2) score c (1) total 1 amount of cru, infaq, and other dues 68 15 17 251 2 repayment period 2 81 17 185 3 proportion of profit sharing for management and investor 92 7 1 291 total score 727 source : primary data; score 1, score 2, score 3 (respondents) where : score 1 for answer (number 1) high, (number 2) short, (number 3) high : score 2 for answer (number 1, 2, and 3) moderate : score 3 for answer (number 1) low, (number 2) long, (number 3) low based on table 3, 68% of respondents stated that the amount of deduction, especially cru is burdensome. that is because they understand that the cru fund is used to cover losses of the members failed in business. this is the commitment of the members to bear each other (tabarru') and help each other (ta'awun). while zakat is a form of fulfillment of sharia compliance. on the other hand, 15% of respondents said that the deduction, particularly cru is quite burdensome and 17% of respondents stated that the amount of deduction is onerous. this is because the percentage of cru is 10% of the total cost that make it high. in terms of cultivation period, 81% of respondents said the time limit set by the management was moderate, while 17% of respondents said it was too fast. determination of the maximum period of 85 days of cultivation is based on projections of the management of the standard cultivation time and capital has to be rotated in order to finance other members. therefore, it’s better if the management could determine the maximum number of members 136 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 2, oktober 2017: 124-141 that fit with the availability of capital so the financing could be done optimally. in terms of profit proportion for management and investor partners, as many as 92% of respondents stated that the proportion is low. this proves the commitment of kemitraan bumidipa in the welfare of its members by providing a large portion of the profit share. in total, kemitraan bumidipa is relatively effective at the repayment stage with score 727. analysis of effectivity on impact for business aspect on the impact of the financing, the effectiveness of kemitraan bumidipa measured by analyzing the development of business, increased profits, and improved members’ cultivation asset. table 4. analysis of financing effectivity on impact to business condition no. indicator score a (3) score b (2) score c (1) total 1 business development 37 38 25 212 2 profit 31 4 65 166 3 asset increase 35 60 5 230 total score 608 source: primary data; score 1, score 2, score 3 (respondent) where: score 1 for answer (number 1, 2, and 3) decrease score 2 for answer (number 1, 2, and 3) constant score 3 for answer (number 1, 2 and 3) increase according to table 4, in terms of business development 37% of respondents said that there are significant development on their business since they became members of kemitraan bumidipa, 38% of respondents said that there is no development on business while 25% indicated a decline on it. at the profit level, as many as 31% of respondents said that there is an increase in profits since they became members of kemitraan bumidipa. while 65% of respondents actually stated a decline in profits and the rest stated that it tends to be constant. in terms of the increase in assets, 35% of respondents said that there is an increase in assets, especially shrimp cultivation asset as they became members of the program. while 60% of respondents said there has been no increase in assets and 35% of those surveyed consider their farming assets increased due to their success in business undeveloped business is not caused by lack of good financing managed by kemitraan bumidipa, but more likely because it happened shrimp farming failure for recent periods. less development of the cultivation is caused by natural factors such as unstable of farming environments well as shrimp disease which occurred in recent periods have led to the failure of cultivation. in addition, many members are still farmed shrimp without following standard of cultivation as described previously. therefore, it’s needed for intensive assistance conducted by the management so that the members can do shrimp cultivation based on its standard. overall, kemitraan bumidipa still quite effective in providing the impact on business conditions with a score of 608. recapitulation of financing effectivity on all aspects total average score of the overall financing aspect amounted to 760.7. the data is shown in impact of profit-loss sharing financing on poverty … (shofiyanto, m. findi, s. el ayyubi) 137 table 5. the result of recapitulation indicates that the financing managed by kemitraan bumidipa is classified as effective. however, the impact of the financing still has a low value sufficient effectiveness. this is because there is a failure of shrimp farming of the members in recent periods. table 5. recapitulation of respondents’ perception on financing effectivity no. aspect score 1 application process 895 2 realization process 813 3 repayment process 727 4 impact on business 608 5 average of score 760.7 source: primary data impact of profit-loss sharing financing on poverty indices of shrimp farmers paired t-test paired t tests were used to determine the difference in members’ income between before and after getting financing. the formula is as follows (walpole 2005): t-test hypothesis: h0: µ = 0 h1: µd ≠ 0 t-test statistic: nsd/ d0  d t hit (7) where: d = the difference of income sd = standard deviation n = number of observation t-test criteria: thit < ttable: h0 is not rejected, means there are no significance difference of income before and after getting financial service at the significance level of 1% thit > ttable: h0 is rejected, means there are significance difference of income before and after getting financial service at the significance level of 1% based on this calculation, the value of thit is -4.2125, where the absolute value │-4.2125│ = 4.2125, which more than ttable value of 2.576. it means that there is significance difference of income’s member between before and after getting financial service at the significance level of 1%. with thit value is negative, it means there is a decrease in their income after getting the financial service from kemitraan bumidipa instead. analysis of poverty indices change on shrimp farmers after analyzing the income difference by paired t test, the assessment using poverty indicators is conducted to see clearly the change of poverty indices in shrimp farmers. according to table 6, the headcount ratio value before becoming a member of kemitraan bumidipa is 0,08, which means that only 8% of members’ family classified as poor according to the household poverty line. after getting financial services, this index increased to 0.33. while the value of poverty gap index increased from rp 212,833 to rp423,393. that means the average difference between poor shrimp farmers income and the poverty line is rp206,539 before becoming a member of the program. then, it increased to rp417,099 after getting financial 138 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 2, oktober 2017: 124-141 service. the same result happened to income gap index where it rose from 0.19 to 0.38. table 6. poverty indices comparison before and after being member poverty index before after difference h 0.08 0.33 0.25 p1 (rupiah) 212,833 423,393 210,560 i 0.19 0.38 0.19 p2 0.04 0.21 0.17 gp 0.32 0.44 0.12 the sen index or severity poverty index also increased from 0.04 to 0.21 after the shrimp farmers became members of the program. to see if there are gaps aquaculture farmers income both before and after a member of the program, the analysis used gini coefficient of the poor (gp). gp value shrimp farmers before becoming a member of the partnership is at 0.32. that is, the income gap of shrimp farmers before becoming a member of the partnership moderate. after becoming a member of the program, this gap increased to 0.44. this means fish farmer’s income gap actually increased after a member of the partnership. nevertheless, the income gap is still relatively moderate for shrimp farmers either before or after a member of the program. the increase in the value of the indices of poverty in the post shrimp farmers become members of the partnership is due to the decrease in revenue received shrimp farmers at the time a member of kemitraan bumidipa. while the decline in farmers' income is caused by the failure of the shrimp cultivation that are generally experienced by shrimp farmers dipasena in recent periods. so, this condition is not happened because they became members of the program. conclusion and recommendation conclusion based on the analysis result discussed in previous chapter, it revealed that the core values of kemitraan bumidipa are the profit sharing system that based on actual profit of shrimp farmers business, the collaboration with some parties include sharia bank to provide professional financial services, the model of joint liability reflected from the mechanism of cru (cadangan rasio usaha) as investment guarantee, and the right form of financing that direct to productive purpose. in other hand, the factors that could cause failure of the program are related to farming business; namely the the unstable environment of shrimp farming, technical problem of shrimp farmers, and the decreased of shrimp’s price in domestic market. another factor is the moral hazard behavior of its members. according to effectivity analysis, overall this program has been effective. however, there are some indicators such as payback period and the impact of financing that should be optimized. based on poverty indices result, headcount ratio index (h), poverty gap indiex (p1), income gap index (i) and sen index of farmer increase after becoming members of kemitraan bumidipa as the result of the failure of their shrimp’s cultivation. recommendation according to the conclution of this research mentioned before, there are some recommendations that may be useful for islamic financial sector, coastal societies empowerment, and any related research in the future: 1. sharia microfinance institution should be more selective in choosing its clients in order to avoid moral hazard act. impact of profit-loss sharing financing on poverty … (shofiyanto, m. findi, s. el ayyubi) 139 2. in case of financing, it should be a supervision mechanism to prevent the clients from moral hazard act. 3. government and related institutions must give support and assistance for coastal societies in case of its empowerments and economy improvement. 4. there is a need for further research particularly related to the unstable environment of shrimp farming and the fluctuation of shrimp’s price. references afzalurrahman. 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(2013). does pls solve moral hazard problem? jiebf. available at: http://www.isu.ac.ir/farsi/academics/e conomics/edu/dlc/2rd/02/instructor/ar t2.pdf jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 2, oktober 2017, hlm. 111-115 doi: 10.18196/jesp.18.2.4021 analysis of factors affecting the implementation of computer-based accounting information system on small and medium enterprises siti nur azizah economics and business faculty, universitas muhammadiyah purwokerto, indonesia jalan raya dukuh waluh, purwokerto 53181 indonesia, phone +62-281-636751 correspondence e-mail: sn.azizahump@yahoo.com received: june 2017; accepted: october 2017 abstract: the objective of the research is to examine some factors that influence implementation computer-based accounting information system on small and medium enterprises (smes). the study is based on the model proposed by davis (1989), they are perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, the attitude toward using, intention in use and actual usage that includes in technology acceptance model (tam) theory. computer-based accounting information system in this study was measured by usage of point of sales (pos) system. this study used data obtained from individual perception of information system user in dieng-mart swalayan collected from 33 questionnaires. the data were analyzed by regression use spss 16.0 software. study result shows that the implementation of computer-based accounting information system is influenced by perceived ease of use and attitude toward using which are included in tam theory. keywords: technology acceptance model (tam), point of sales (pos) system, small and medium enterprises (smes). jel classification: m15, m21, l32 abstrak: tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk menguji beberapa faktor yang mempengaruhi penerapan sistem informasi akuntansi berbasis komputer pada usaha kecil dan menengah (ukm). penelitian ini didasarkan pada model yang diajukan oleh davis (1989), mereka dianggap bermanfaat, dirasakan mudah digunakan, sikap terhadap penggunaan, niat dalam penggunaan dan penggunaan aktual yang termasuk dalam teori teknologi model penerimaan (tam). sistem informasi akuntansi berbasis komputer dalam penelitian ini diukur dengan penggunaan sistem poin penjualan (pos). penelitian ini menggunakan data yang diperoleh dari persepsi individu pengguna sistem informasi di dieng-mart swalayan yang dikumpulkan dari 33 kuesioner. data dianalisis dengan regresi menggunakan software spss 16.0. hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa penerapan sistem informasi akuntansi berbasis komputer dipengaruhi oleh perceived ease of use dan attitude terhadap penggunaan yang termasuk dalam teori tam. kata kunci: teknologi model penerimaan (tam), sistem poin penjualan (pos), usaha kecil dan menengah (ukm). klasifikasi jel: m15, m2, l32 112 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 2, oktober 2017: 111-115 introduction small and medium enterprises (smes) is a business unit managed by the community, either in the form of private businesses, business groups, or the family business that is still on a small scale. smes have a strategic role in national economic development, not only contributing to national economic growth smes, but also absorb unemployed labor in large numbers. in the current era of globalization, especially smes are required to make changes in order to improve their competitiveness. in addition, the utilization of information technology in a business field is also growing rapidly, so that it causes an entity seeks to apply technology and information systems used to process and submit information effectively and efficiently in order to support the business processes and improve the quality of service (sari, 2011). one of the smes interesting to be examined is dieng-mart swalayan in banyumas regency. based on direct observation, diengmart swalayan is one of the medium-sized business sector that is not as alfamart or indomart which are in form of franchises. so, dieng-mart swalayan becomes a sme that conduct its business in a high competition business sector. based on several problems in dieng mart swalayan, it needs to be examined the factors affecting the implementation of computer based accounting information systems at dieng-mart swalayan banyumas. hopefully, the result of this research will be further utilized by businesses to develop their business. as according to rahmana (2009) that the uses of information technology and information systems are able to improve business transformation through speed, accuracy and efficiency of information exchange in large numbers. previous researches conducted in many countries have shown some different conclusions. bugembe (2010) research conducted in uganda proved that there was correlation between perceived ease of use and attitudes towards using the system. the similar research conducted by sriwidharmanely and vina (2012) in bengkulu, indonesia stated that perceived ease of use has no effect to attitude towards using. previous researches have some limitations. the research of bugembe (2010) conducted in uganda, the study of sriwidharmanely and vina (2012) in bengkulu and research conducted by amidu et al. (2011) in ghana are only regionally research which are cannot generalized elsewhere. variable development also necessary to conduct related to the research of allahyari et al. (2012) which only use perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use and social factor toward actual usage. therefore, tam development also needs to be done by adding several tam variables such as attitudes towards the using and intention of use. based on the research gap such as the difference of the results of the similar studies, the limitations of previous studies and the structure of concepts that need to be followed, it is necessarily to re-examine the factors predicted to be able to affect the implementation of computer-based accounting information systems on small and medium enterprises (smes) on dieng-mart swalayan in banyumas. tam (technology acceptance model) was first introduced by davis in 1986. tam is a development of the tra (theory of reasoned action), which is a model of technology acceptance assessment that identifies an individual's level of acceptance of the technology. the main objective of tam as stated by davis is to explain the factors that influence the acceptance of information technology with a broad range of information technology and the population of users. analysis of factors affecting the implementation of computer-based… (siti nur azizah) 113 research method data and source this research was categorized as quantitative research conducted by a survey method in branch offices of “dieng-mart swalayan” in banyumas regency. the object of this research is the implementation of a computer-based accounting information system in” dieng-mart swalayan” in banyumas regency by considering perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, attitude toward using, and intention to use factors. sampling technique the population of this research was every single employee in the “dieng mart swalayan” in banyumas regency. sample size was measured using a saturated-sample method that means whole population was used as the sample of research. operational definition of variable (1) perceived usefulness (x1): the individual perception that pos system usage will increase his/her productivity, performance and make working process becomes more efficient. (2) perceived ease of use (x2): the individual perception that pos system can be used easily and free of problems. (3) attitude toward using (x3): user’s attitudes towards the using of pos system in the form of positive or negative perception as a result when someone use the system in his/her work. (4) intention to use (x4): can be shown by how individual learning way or suggestion to the others related to the system and demand of pos system development. (5) actual usage (y): the real of pos system usage in individual’s job. it is used as the measurement of implementation of computer-based accounting information system. analysis tool this research used the multiple regression and simple regression analysis to analyze the influence of the independent variables on the dependent variables. (suliyanto, 2011: 53). the equations used in this research were: y1 = a + b1x1 + b2x2 + e (1) y2 = a + b3y1 + e (2) y3 = a + b4y2 + e (3) where : y1= attitude; y2= intention to use; y3 = actual usage; α = constant; β1 = regression coefficient of perceived usefulness; β2 = regression coefficient of perceived ease of use; β3= regression coefficient of attitude; β4 = regression coefficient of intention to use; x1= perceived usefulness; x2 = perceived ease of use; e = error. results and discussion table 11. hypothesis testing result hypothesis beta sig conclusion h1 0.149 0.211 rejected h2 0.194 0.013 accepted h3 0.513 0.025 accepted h4 -0.156 0.151 rejected hypothesis 1 stated that the perceived usefulness affects attitudes toward using on implementation of computer-based accounting information system. table 11 shows the perceived usefulness variable has a sig. value of 0.211 where the alpha value is the above figures taken, at 0.05. the regression coefficient is 0.149, so that the hypothesis 1 is not acceptable. it means that perceived usefulness has no effect on attitudes toward using a computer-based accounting information system. this is not consistent with the results of research conducted by yuadi (2009), awosejo et al. (2013), bugembe (2010) and sari (2014) which concluded that the perceived usefulness variable affects attitudes towards using of a computer-based accounting information system. the causal that makes difference from previous studies is the respondents who seems have lack of knowledge. this is evident from the characteristics of the respondents where 114 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 2, oktober 2017: 111-115 83% of the new accounting training earn 1-3 times and 85% of the respondents also recently been getting computer training only 1-3 times. the low amount of training received by the respondents is resulted in the lack of knowledge of the respondents about the system. this is resulted in a variable bias on perceived usefulness that is felt by the respondents that the relationship between variables perceived usefulness and attitude toward using variable are not significantly associated. hypothesis 2 stated that perceived ease of use affects attitudes toward using on implementation of computer-based accounting information system. table 11 shows the perceived ease of use has sig. value of 0.013 (below alpha 0.05) with a regression coefficient of 0.194, so that the hypothesis 2 is accepted. it means that the perceived ease of use influences the attitudes in use of a computer-based accounting information system. this is consistent with studies of yuadi (2009), awosejo et al (2013), bugembe (2010) and sari (2014). it suggested that if a system is easy to use, there is the tendency for respondents to react positively toward the new technology itself. hypothesis 3 stated that attitude toward using affects intention to use on implementation of computer-based accounting information system. table 11 shows the attitude has sig. value of 0.025 (below alpha 0.05) with a regression coefficient of 0.513. so, hypothesis 3 is accepted. it means that attitudes toward using affects intention in the use of a computerbased accounting information system. this result is consistent with research of davis (1989) and wibowo (2007). this means that respondents’ positive attitude towards a system affects the intention in using a computer-based accounting information system. conversely, negative attitudes of respondents toward the usage of computer-based accounting information system causes a lack of intention of the respondent that finally suggests the tendency of do not want to use a new system. hypothesis 4 stated that the intention to use affects actual usage on implementation of computer-based accounting information system. table 11 shows that the intention to use has a sig. value of 0.151 (above alpha value of 0.05) with a negative regression coefficient of 0.156. so, hypothesis 4 is not acceptable. it means that the intention to use has no effect on the actual usage of a computer-based accounting information system. this result does not support previous research conducted by sriwedharmanely and vina (2012) and awosejo et al. (2013). thing that causes the difference from previous studies is the respondents of this research that have a position as employees who must obey the leader. this leads to a condition in which the decision whether the respondent wants to use or not an accounting information system technology depends on the management’s decision not in the respondent’s judgment. conclusions based on the evidence obtained from the results of this research, it can be concluded that: 1. perceived usefulness does not affect attitudes toward using on implementation of computer-based accounting information system. 2. perceived ease of use affects attitudes toward using on implementation of computer-based accounting information system. 3. attitude toward using affects intention to use on implementation of computer-based accounting information system. 4. intention to use does not affect actual usage on implementation of computer-based accounting information system. references allahyari, a., farhad g., and morteza r. (2012). examine the effect of social factors analysis of factors affecting the implementation of computer-based… (siti nur azizah) 115 on information technology acceptance in accounting profession by using tam model. global journal of management and business research, vol. 12, no. 11, issn: 0975-5853. pp. 40-46. published by global journals inc. (usa). amidu, m., john e., and josua a. (2011). eaccounting practices among small and medium enterprises in ghana. journal of management policy and practice vol. 12(4), pp. 146-156. awosejo o.j., ajala e.b., pretorious, p. and zuva, t. (2013). the role of accounting information systems in accounting firm. international journal of computer science applications & information technologies (ijcsait) vol.1, no.2. pp. 2131. bugembe, j. (2010). perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, attitude and actual usage of a new financial management system. dissertation. makerere university davis, f.d. (1989). user acceptance of information technology: system characteristics, user perceptions and behavioral impacts. international journal management machine studies. rahmana, a. (2009). peranan teknologi informasi dalam peningkatan daya saing usaha kecil menengah. seminar nasional aplikasi teknologi informasi. yogyakarta. sriwidharmanely and vina s. (2012). an empirical study of accounting software acceptance among bengkulu city students. asian journal of accounting and governance 3. issn 2180-3838. pp. 99-112 suliyanto. (2011). ekonometrika terapan: teori dan aplikasi dengen spss. andi. yogyakarta. yuadi, i. (2009). analisis technology acceptance model terhadap perpustakaan digital dengan structural equation model. departemen informasi dan perpustakaan. universitas airlangga. microsoft word 07-caroline jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 11, nomor 1, april 2010, hlm.73-97   potensi kecamatan salem dalam   pendapatan asli daerah  caroline fakultas ekonomi universitas sultan fatah demak sultan fatah nomor 83 demak 59516 jawa tengah indonesia telepon +62-291-681024 e-mail: carolinehamboro@yahoo.com abstract: several factors contribute significantly in implement regional autonomy is a good human resources, sources of local revenue, as well as the organization and good management. salem subdistrict in this study is one of the region in brebes district that has a lot of potential economic wealth, natural resources, and human resources that can be developed better to increase local revenues. this study used swot analysis and subdistrict alocation funds (adk). swot analysis is used to compare between internal factor and external factor. after a thorough analysis, the results showed that salem subdistrict is in third strategic position. it means the development of subdistrict needs to consider factors that influence both internally and externally and integrated. the program will be developed covering aspects: human resources, land use, economic, educational facilities, health facilities, electricity networks, telephone networks, drainage networks, water networks, and road network. keywords: local revenues, local autonomy, swot, district development abstrak: beberapa faktor yang berperan secara nyata dalam melaksanakan otonomi daerah adalah sumber daya manusia yang baik, sumber pendapatan daerah, serta organisasi dan manajemen yang baik. kecamatan salem dalam penelitian ini merupakan salah satu dari wilayah di kabupaten brebes yang memiliki banyak potensi kekayaan ekonomi, sumber daya alam, dan sumber daya manusia yang dapat dikembangkan lebih baik untuk meningkatkan pendapatan asli daerah. penelitian ini menggunakan analisis swot dan analisis alokasi dana kecamatan (adk). analisis swot membandingkan antara faktor internal dan faktor eksternal. setelah melalui proses analisis, hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kecamatan salem menduduki posisi strategis ketiga artinya pengembangan kecamatan perlu memperhatikan faktor yang berpengaruh baik internal maupun eksternal dan terintegrasi. programprogram yang akan dikembangkan meliputi aspek: sumberdaya manusia, penggunaan lahan, perekonomian, sarana pendidikan, sarana kesehatan, jaringan listrik, jaringan telepon, jaringan drainase, jaringan air bersih, dan jaringan jalan. kata kunci: pendapatan daerah, otonomi daerah, swot, pembangunan kabupaten pendahuluan dalam rangka penyelenggaraan pemerintah daerah pemerintah pada hakikatnya mengemban tiga fungsi utama, yaitu: fungsi alokasi yang meliputi, antara lain, sumber-sumber ekonomi dalam bentuk barang dan jasa pelayanan masyarakat; fungsi distribusi yang meliputi: pendapatan dan kekayaan masyarakat, pemerataan pembangunan; fungsi stabilitas meliputi: pertahanan-keamanan, ekonomi dan moneter. fungsi distribusi dan stabilisasi pada umumnya lebih efektif dilaksanakan oleh pemerintah pusat, sedangkan fungsi alokasi pada umumnya lebih efektif dilaksanakan oleh pemerintah daerah, karena daerah pada umumnya lebih mengetahui kebutuhan dan standar pelayanan masyarakat. untuk itu dibutuhkan sumber peneri jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 11, nomor 1, april 2010: 73-97 74 maan daerah. salah satu sumber penerimaan daerah adalah pendapatan asli daerah (pad). peningkatan pad kabupaten brebes khususnya di kecamatan salem dapat dilakukan dengan upaya melakukan studi potensi kecamatan. sehingga dengan adanya studiu potensi kecamatan salem diharapkan pendapatan daerah kabupaten brebes dapat meningkat serta mampu membiayai pelaksanaan otonomi daerah. mengingat suatu daerah yang tidak mampu membiayai sumber pembiayaan otonomi daerah akan digabungkan/merger atau dihapuskan. seperti tersirat dalam uu no. 22 tahun 1999 tentang pemerintah daerah. penelitian ini bertujuan mengidentifikasi formulasi pembangunan di setiap kecamatan se wilayah kabupaten brebes, merumuskan model/pola formulasi pembangunan kecamatan yang sesuai dengan kondisi yang ada, menyusun program dan kegiatan pembangunan kecamatan yang sesuai dengan model formulasi di masing-masing kecamatan, dan merumuskan anggaran sesuai dengan program dan kegiatan di masing-masing kecamatan. landasan hukum. landasan hukum dalam penyusunan studi potensi kecamatan salem kabupaten brebes antara lain undangundang nomor 32 tahun 2004 tentang pemerintah daerah, peraturan pemerintah nomor 19 tahun 2008 tentang kecamatan, peraturan daerah nomor 2 tahun 2008 tentang rencana pembangunan jangka menengah daerah kabupaten brebes tahun 2008-2012, peraturan daerah nomor 1 tahun 2009 tentang anggaran pendapatan belanja daerah kabupaten brebes tahun 2009, dan peraturan bupati nomor 002 tahun 2009 tentang penjabaran anggaran pendapatan belanja daerah kabupaten brebes. penyelenggaraan pemerintahan. sesuai dengan undang-undang nomor 32 tahun 2004 tentang pemerintah daerah pada pasal 10 ayat (4), ditegaskan bahwa dalam menyelenggarakan urusan pemerintah, pemerintah menyelenggarakan sendiri atau dapat melimpahkan sebagian urusan pemerintahan kepada perangkat pemerintah atau wakil pemerintah di daerah atau dapat menugaskan kepada pemerintah daerah dan/atau pemerintah desa. sebagai konsekuensinya, desa berhak menerima dari pemerintah kabupaten/kota untuk melaksanakan kewenangannya. selanjutnya berdasarkan isi pasal 206 uu no. 32 tahun 2004, kewenangan desa mencakup: (a) urusan pemerintah yang sudah ada berdasarkan hak asal-usul desa; (b) urusan pemerintahan yang menjadi kewenangan kabupaten/kota yang diserahkan pengaturannya kepada desa; (c) tugas pembantuan dari pemerintah, pemerintah provinsi, dan/atau pemerintah kabupaten/kota; dan (d) urusan pemerintah lainnya yang oleh peraturan perundang-undangan diserahkan kepada desa. mengenai tugas pembantuan dari pemerintah, pemerintah provinsi, dan/atau pemerintah kabupaten/kota kepada desa disertai dengan pembiayaan, sarana dan prasarana, serta sumber daya manusia (pasal 207 uu no. 32 tahun 2004). sedangkan tugas dan kewajiban kepala desa dalam uu no. 32 tahun 2004 tidak dijabarkan secara rinci, hal ini tertuang dalam pasal 208, yang menyatakan bahwa tugas dan kewajiban kepala desa dalam memimpin penyelenggaraan pemerintah desa diatur lebih lanjut dengan perda berdasarkan peraturan pemerintah. akan tetapi berdasarkan uu no. 22 tahun 1999, pasal 101 menyatakan bahwa tugas dan kewajiban kepala desa adalah: memimpin penyelenggaraan pemerintah desa, membina kehidupan masyarakat desa, membina perekonomian desa, memelihara ketenteraman dan ketertiban masyarakat desa, mendamaikan perselisihan masyarakat desa, mewakili desanya di dalam dan di luar pengadilan dan dapat menunjuk kuasa hukumnya. untuk dapat melaksanakan tugas sesuai dengan kewenangannya, telah diatur tentang sumber-sumber pendapatan desa. dalam pasal 212 ayat (3) uu no. 32 tahun 2004, sumber pendapatan desa terdiri atas: pendapatan asli desa; bagi hasil pajak daerah dan retribusi daerah kabupaten/kota; bagian dari dana perimbangan keuangan pusat dan daerah yang diterima oleh kabupaten/kota; bantuan dari pemerintah, pemerintah provinsi, dan pemerintah kabupaten/kota; hibah dan sumbangan dari pihak ketiga. pengelolaan keuangan. desentralisasi telah menawarkan suatu kesadaran (consciousness) kepada kita bahwa ke depan, pembangun potensi kecamatan salem dalam pendapatan asli daerah (caroline) 75 an harus dijiwai dan mengakomodasikan nilainilai lokal, kultural, dan sejarah masyarakat setempat ke dalam bentuk partisipasi yang seluas-luasnya. proses percepatan desentralisasi dan otonomi daerah hingga hari ini masih dihadapkan banyak kendala yang menjadi beban bagi pemerintah, hingga menyentuh pada tataran pemerintahan di tingkat desa. memahami desentralisiasi desa sebagai sebuah proses, dimaksudkan untuk menemukan dan merumuskan langkah-langkah konkrit yang harus ditempuh agar pemahaman desentralisiasi desa dengan berbagai konsekwensinya (keuntungan dan kerugian) dapat dipahami dan segera diantisipasi oleh seluruh lapisan masyarakat. di tingkat desa, permasalahan yang perlu mendapat perhatian dan segera diantisipasi, antara lain: terbatasnya ketersediaan sumberdaya manusia yang baik dan profesional; terbatasnya ketersediaan sumber-sumber pembiayaan yang memadai, baik yang berasal dari kemampuan desa itu sendiri (internal) maupun sumber dana dari luar (eksternal); belum tersusunnya kelembagaan sosial-ekonomi yang mampu berperan secara efektif; belum terbangunnya sistem dan regulasi yang jelas dan tegas; dan kurangnya kreatifitas dan partisipasi masyarakat secara lebih kritis dan rasional.  keuangan desa adalah semua hak dan kewajiban desa yang dapat dinilai dengan uang; segala sesuatu berupa uang dan barang yang dapat dijadikan milik desa yang berhubungan dengan pelaksanaan hak dan kewajiban tersebut; menimbulkan pendapatan, belanja dan pengelolaan keuangan desa. hal ini berarti institusi ini mengarahkan kepada “penerima manfaat”, dan secara sosial ekonomi mampu “memandirikan” desa. kemudian kepala desa adalah pemegang kekuasaan pengelolaan keuangan desa. dalam melaksanakan kekuasaannya, kepala desa dapat melimpahkan sebagian atau seluruh kekuasaannya berupa perencanaan, pelaksanaan, penatausahaan, pelaporan kepada perangkat desa. alokasi dana kecamatan (adk). dalam penjelasan pasal 212, pendapatan asli desa sesuai ayat (3) huruf a, meliputi: hasil usaha desa, hasil kekayaan desa, hasil swadaya dan partisipasi, hasil gotong royong dan lain-lain pendapatan asli desa yang sah. sedangkan penjelasan untuk huruf d, bantuan keuangan dari pemerintah, pemerintah provinsi dan pemerintah kabupaten/kota adalah bantuan yang bersumber dari apbn, apbd provinsi, apbd kabupaten/kota yang disalurkan melalui kas desa dalam rangka penyelenggaraan pemerintah desa. penjelasan untuk huruf e, yang dimaksud dengan "sumbangan dari pihak ketiga" dalam ketentuan ini dapat berbentuk hadiah, donasi, wakaf, dan atau lain-lain sumbangan serta pemberian dimaksud tidak mengurangi kewajiban-kewajiban pihak penyumbang. alokasi dana desa (add) untuk seluruh desa dalam wilayah kabupaten hendaknya didasarkan pada prinsip pemerataan dan keadil gambar 1. keuangan dan ekonomi jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 11, nomor 1, april 2010: 73-97 76 an sesuai dengan kewenangan yang diemban masing-masing desa, serta kemampuan (potensi ekonomi) yang dimiliki. pada dasarnya add merupakan dana perimbangan dengan tujuan membantu daerah yang lebih rendah (untuk studi ini adalah desa) dalam menutup gap/ perbedaan antara kebutuhan fiskalnya (fiscal needs) dan kemampuan fisiknya (fiscal capacity). untuk itu pembagian dana hendaknya dilakukan dengan mempertimbangkan tingkat kewenangan yang harus dilaksanakan (money should follow the function). kewenangan desa meliputi kewenangan asli berdasarkan asal usul desa dan kewenangan tambahan, yang dilimpahkan oleh pemerintah yang lebih tinggi dan ingin dilaksanakan oleh desa. untuk melaksanakan kewenangan asli dan kewenangan yang dilimpahkan, pemerintah desa membutuhkan dana (fiscal needs). kebutuhan fiskal pemerintah desa tercermin dari jumlah dan kualitas kewenangan yang harus dilaksanakan, jumlah penduduk dan jumlah penduduk miskin, luas wilayah (termasuk aksesibilitas), serta standar minimum dari kondisi sarana dan prasarana penyelenggaraan pemerintah/pembangunan desa. kemampuan ekonomi (fiscal capacity) desa, tercermin dari potensi ekonomi desa, antara lain terlihat dari jumlah nilai kekayaan desa dan tanah kas desa (hondo desa), hasil pungutan retribusi desa, hasil pungutan dari pelayanan administrasi serta hasil usaha milik desa dan kekayaan lainlain berikut kontribusinya dalam mengembangkan ekonomi masyarakat desa. seiring dengan diterbitkannya surat edaran menteri dalam negeri nomor 140/640/sj tahun 2005 tentang "pedoman alokasi dana desa dari pemerintah kabupaten/kota kepada pemerintah desa", dijelaskan bahwa dalam upaya peningkatan pelayanan dasar masyarakat dan pemberdayaan masyarakat maka pemerintah desa sebagai unit pemerintahan terdepan yang berhubungan langsung dengan masyarakat perlu didukung dana dalam melaksanakan tugas-tugasnya di bidang pemerintahan maupun pembangunan. dalam se tersebut agar bupati/walikota menetapkan alokasi dana desa (add) kepada pemerintah desa dengan ketentuan sebagai berikut: (1) dari hasil pajak daerah kabupaten/kota paling sedikit 10 persen untuk desa untuk di wilayah kabupaten/kota yang bersangkutan, sebagaimana diamanatkan dalam pasal 2 a) undang-undang nomor 34 tahun 2000 tentang perubahan atas undang-undang nomor 18 tahun 1997 tentang pajak daerah dan retribusi daerah. (2) dari retribusi kabupaten/kota, yakni hasil penerimaan jenis retribusi tertentu daerah kabupaten/kota sebagian diperuntukkan bagi desa, sebagaimana diamanatkan dalam undang-undang nomor 34 tahun 2000 tentang perubahan atas undang-undang nomor 18 tahun 1997 tentang pajak daerah dan retribusi daerah. (3) bantuan keuangan kepada desa yang merupakan bagian dari dana perimbangan keuangan pusat dan daerah yang diterima oleh kabupaten/kota antara 5 persen sampai dengan 10 persen sebagaimana yang pernah dilakukan di beberapa daerah. persentase yang dimaksud tersebut di atas tidak termasuk dana alokasi khusus (dak). (4) bantuan keuangan sebagaimana dimaksud pada angka 3), dibagikan secara adil dan merata sesuai kebijakan dan kondisi daerah, misalnya sebesar 60 persen sebagai alokasi dana desa minimal (addm) dan jumlah add 40 persen sebagai alokasi dana desa proporsional (addp) dari jumlah add. pembagian addp dengan memperhatikan faktor kemiskinan, pendidikan dasar, kesehatan, keterjangkauan, dan lain-lain sesuai dengan kebijakan daerah. (5) rumusan besaran alokasi dana desa dan penyalurannya ke kas desa, lebih lanjut diatur dalam peraturan bupati/walikota atau peraturan daerah. berdasarkan ketentuan dalam surat edaran tersebut di atas, setiap kabupaten/kota perlu segera mengimplementasikan formula alokasi dana desa atau melakukan reformulasi penghitungan/pembagian add, tidak lagi menggunakan kesamaan jumlah dalam mengalokasikan dana desa. hal ini juga diperkuat dengan diterbitkannya surat edaran menteri dalam negeri nomor: 140/286/sj tertanggal 17 pebruari 2006 tentang "pelaksanaan alokasi dana desa". untuk itu, studi ini diharapkan memberi solusi bagi pemerintah kabupaten brebes untuk menyusun formula dalam pembagian alokasi potensi kecamatan salem dalam pendapatan asli daerah (caroline) 77 dana desa (add) desa berdasarkan azas merata dan adil, sehingga akan berdampak pada peningkatan kesejahteraan masyarakatnya dan membantu percepatan pembangunan bagi desa yang kondisinya kurang mampu dibanding desa yang lebih mampu (percepatan akselerasi pembangunan). metode penelitian populasi dan sampling populasi dalam studi ini meliputi kecamatan salem di kabupaten brebes. pada studi ini tidak dilakukan sampling, dalam arti seluruh kecamatan mencakup desa dimensi yang membentuk kecamatan akan dikaji. sebagai responden studi ini adalah seluruh kepala desa, tokoh masyarakat, bpd, dan camat. teknik pengumpulan data data yang diperlukan dalam studi ini meliputi data primer dan sekunder. (1) pengumpulan data primer dilakukan melalui: (a) focus group discussion (fgd) dan meta plan (kartu ide). (b) wawancara mendalam untuk menggali informasi individual dari para tokoh/pejabat. (c) kontemplasi kritis dan observasi (ekspresi tubuh) untuk wawancara dengan kelompok perempuan dan warga miskin dan biasa. (2) pengumpulan data sekunder dikumpulkan melalui studi dokumentasi dari data monografi desa, data bersumber dari kantor statistik kecamatan (dalam bentuk kecamatan dalam angka) dan bps kabupaten (kabupaten brebes dalam angka), data potensi kecamatan. teknik analisis data analisis swot. metode analisis yang dipergunakan adalah analisis swot (strenghts, opportunities, weakness, threats). analisis ini mengidentifikasi berbagai faktor secara sistematis untuk merumuskan suatu strategi pengembangan. analisis ini didasarkan pada logika yang dapat memaksimalkan kekuatan (strenghts) dan peluang (opportunities), namun secara bersamaan dapat meminimalkan kelemahan (weakness) dan ancaman (threats). analisis swot membandingkan antara faktor eksternal dengan faktor internal (rangkuti, 2002) kemudian dilakukan penilaian (bobot dan rating) faktor eksternal dan internal yang disajikan pada tabel 1. analisis adk selain memperhatikan tujuan dan indikator yang dapat dipakai sebagai parameter pendistabel 1. matrik faktor strategi eksternal faktor-faktor strategi eksternal bobot rating bobot x rating komentar ( 1 ) (2) (3) (4=2x3) (5) p e l u a n g uraian yang berisi mengenai peluangpeluang yang terdapat di lokasi studi dan dapat dimanfaatkan sebagai suatu kesempatan dalam pengembangan potensi ekonomi daerah x y xy catatan yang berisi mengenai alasan faktor-faktor tertentu yang dipilih a n c a m a n uraian yang berisi mengenai faktor-faktor yang dapat mempengaruhi potensi pengembangan ekonomi daerah x y xy catatan yang berisi mengenai alasan faktor-faktor tertentu yang dipilih keterangan: (1) bobot pada masing-masing faktor dalam kolom 2, mulai dari 3 (sangat penting) sampai dengan 1 (tidak penting). faktor tersebut kemungkinan dapat memberikan dampak terhadap faktor strategis. (2) rating pada kolom 3 untuk masingmasing faktor dengan memberikan skala mulai dari 3 (outstanding) sampai dengan 1 (poor) berdasarkan pengaruh faktor terhadap kondisi lokasi yang bersangkutan. pemberian nilai rating untuk faktor peluang bersifat positif (peluang yang semakin besar diberi rating +3, tetapi jika peluangnya lebih kecil diberi rating +1). sedangkan pemberian nilai rating ancaman adalah kebalikannya. misalnya, jika nilai ancamannya sangat besar, ratingnya adalah 1. sebaliknya, jika nilai ancamannya sedikit ratingnya 3. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 11, nomor 1, april 2010: 73-97 78 tribusian adk, bentuk formula pembagiannya pun harus memenuhi kriteria tertentu, sehingga hasil formulasi tersebut mudah diaplikasikan dan tidak bertentangan dengan tujuan dari desentralisasi desa yang melebar dalam kecamatan. artinya, formulasi fpk tersebut harus mendorong semangat desentralisasi, adil dan transparan, sederhana, pasti dan dapat diprediksi, netral, memberikan insentif bagi kecamatan penerima, dan menghindari kecenderungan terciptanya sentralisasi kekuasaan di tingkat kabupaten. atas dasar pertimbangan poin-poin tersebut di atas, maka formulasi perimbangan dana yang disusun harus memasukkan unsur pemerataan dan unsur keadilan. oleh karena itu, formula adk yang diadopsi maryunani, dkk (2002) (lihat persamaan (1) dan (2) di bawah ini) tampak sekali menggambarkan adanya dua komponen yang mempengaruhi, yaitu komponen tetap (adm) untuk tujuan pemerataan dan komponen variabel (adv) untuk tujuan keadilan. komponen tetap adalah dana minimum yang diterima oleh kecamatan dan besarnya sama untuk setiap kecamatan. sedangkan komponen variabel adalah bagian fpk yang diterima oleh kecamatan dan besarnya tergantung tabel 2. matrik faktor strategi internal faktor-faktor strategi eksternal bobot rating bobot x rating komentar (1) (2) (3) (4=2x3) (5) kekuatan uraian yang berisi mengenai potensi yang dimiliki oleh lokasi studi yang dapat dikembangan lebih lanjut x y xy catatan yang berisi mengenai alasan faktor-faktor tertentu yang dipilih kelemahan uraian yang berisi mengenai kendala-kendala yang dimiliki oleh lokasi studi yang menimbulkan permasalahan dalam pengembangannya y y xy catatan yang berisi mengenai alasan faktor-faktor tertentu yang dipilih keterangan: (1)bobot pada masing-masing faktor dalam kolom 2, mulai dari 3 (sangat penting) sampai dengan 1 (tidak penting). faktor tersebut kemungkinan dapat memberikan dampak terhadap faktor strategis. (2)rating pada kolom 3 untuk masing-masing faktor degan memberikan skala mulai dari 3 (outstanding) sampai dengan 1 (poor) berdasarkan pengaruh faktor terhadap kondisi lokasi yang bersangkutan. variabel yang bersifat positif (semua variabel yang masuk kategori kekuatan) diberi nilai +1 sampai dengan +3 (sangat baik). sedangkan variabel yang bersifat negatif, kebalikannya. (3) setelah dilakukan penilaian faktor eksternal dan internal kemudian dilakukan penyusunan strategi dan skala prioritas dari hasil analisis faktor eksternal dan internal. tabel 3. matriks strategi swot ifas efas strength (s) faktor kekuatan internal weakness (w) faktor kelemahan internal opportunies (o) faktor peluang eksternal strategi so ciptakan strategi yang menggunakan kekuatan untuk memanfaatkan peluang. strategi wo ciptakan strategi yang meminimalkan kelemahan untuk memanfaatkan peluang. treats (t) faktor hambatan eksternal strategi st ciptakan strategi yang menggunakan kekuatan untuk mengatasi ancaman. strategi wt ciptakan strategi yang meminimalkan kelemahan dan menghindari ancaman.   potensi kecamatan salem dalam pendapatan asli daerah (caroline) 79 dari posisi relatif desa yang bersangkutan terhadap keseluruhan desa di wilayah kabupaten. oleh karena itu besarnya adk dari komponen variabel yang diterima oleh setiap kecamatan kemungkinan besar tidak akan sama. bentuk formula untuk menghitung besarnya adj, menurut maryunani (2002) adalah sebagai berikut: adki = adm + (bdi x adv) (1)   penjelasannya: adki adalah adk untuk kecamatan ke i; adm adalah dana alokasi minimum (dibagi rata untuk seluruh kecamatan; adv adalah total adk yang bersifat variabel adk = adm + adv (2) sedangkan untuk menentukan bobot kecamatan ke i, formulanya:   bki = a1 ikki + a2 ipki + a3 iiki (3)   penjelasannya: bki adalah bobot kecamatan i, ikki adalah indeks kebutuhan kecamatan i, ipki adalah indeks potensi kecamatan i, iiki adalah indeks insentif kecamatan i, a1…3 adalah bobot masing-masing indeks dalam perhitungan bki, dan a1 + a2 + a3 = 1. dalam persamaan (3) tampak bahwa bobot kecamatan mencerminkan prioritas yang menjadi preferensi suatu pemerintahan daerah terhadap kebijakan perimbangan keuangan kabupaten-kecamatan. prioritas ini bisa dilihat dari bobot indeks (a) yang ditetapkan, apakah yang diprioritaskan adalah kebutuhan kecamatan, potensi kecamatan atau insentif kecamatannya. sementara itu, masing-masing indeks bobot di kecamatan dapat dihitung dengan persamaan: (1) variabel indeks kebutuhan kecamatan (ikk) ada 3 (tiga) indikator yang menentukan, yaitu penduduk miskin, pelayanan fasilitas publik, dan kondisi jalan rusak   ikki = b1 ipmi – b2 iflpi + b3 ijrki (4)   penjelasannya: ikki adalah indeks kebutuhan kecamatan i, ipmi adalah indeks penduduk miskin kecamatan i (jumlah penduduk miskin kecamatan i/total penduduk miskin seluruh kecamatan); iflpi adalah indeks fasilitas layanan publik kecamatan i (jumlah skor fasilitas layanan publik kecamatan i/total skor fasilitas layanan publik seluruh kecamatan) ijrki adalah indeks jalan rusak kecamatani (panjang jalan rusak kecamatan i/total panjang jalan rusak seluruh kecamatan), b adalah bobot masing-masing kecamatan dalam penentuan ikki (2) variabel indeks potensi kecamatan i adalah skor potensi kecamatan i/total skor potensi kecamatan dari seluruh kecamatan. ada 3 (tiga) indikator yang akan digunakan untuk menghitung variabel indeks potensi kecamatan adalah: lembaga pendidikan, prasarana kesehatan, dan lembaga ekonomi ipki = b1 ilpi + b2 ipki + b3 ijrki (5) penjelasannya: ipki adalah indeks potensi kecamatan i, ilpi adalah indeks lembaga pendidikan kecamatan i (jumlah skor lembaga pendidikan kecamatan i/jumlah total skor prasarana pendidikan seluruh kecamatan, ipki adalah indeks prasarana kesehatan kecamatan i (jumlah skor prasarana kesehatan kecamatan i/jumlah total skor prasarana kesehatan seluruh kecamatan), ilei adalah indeks lembaga ekonomi kecamatan i (jumlah skor lembaga ekonomi kecamatan i/jumlah total skor lembaga ekonomi seluruh kecamatan), b adalah bobot masing-masing indeks dalam penentuan variabel ipki (3) variabel indeks insentif potensi i adalah skor insentif kecamatan i/total skor insentif seluruh kecamatan. perhitungan skor insentif dihitung melalui perbandingan antara realisasi penerimaan pbb kecamatan dengan rencana penerimaan pbb yang ditargetkan kecamatan tersebut. indikator perhitungan insentif seperti itu juga bias kepentingan supra desa. sehingga memilih skor insentif kecamatan didapatkan melalui perhitungan hasil pemanfaatan aset kecamatan yang dimiliki, misalnya tanah kas desa dibangun untuk kios desa dan disewakan ke warga desa, hasil sewa kios desa inilah dasar perhitungan insentif desa yang melebar dalam kecamatan. indikator yang digunakan dalam perhitungan varabel intensif kecamatan adalah: penerimaan pajak, dan lelang aset kecamatan. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 11, nomor 1, april 2010: 73-97 80 iiki = c1 ilaki + c2 ippi (6) penjelasannya: iiki adalah indeks insentif kecamatan i, ilaki adalah indeks lelang aset kecamatan i (jumlah nilai lelang aset kecamatan i/jumlah nilai lelang aset seluruh kecamatan), ippi adalah indeks penerimaan pajak kecamatan i (jumlah penerimaan pajak kecamatan i/jumlah penerimaan pajak seluruh kecamatan) hasil dan pembahasan kondisi kependudukan kecamatan salem kepadatan penduduk. konsentrasi penduduk tahun 2007 pada kecamatan salem secara total sebesar 370 jiwa/km2. kepadatan penduduk tertinggi terdapat pada desa pabuaran, dengan luasan desa 2,58 km2 dan jumlah penduduk 2909 jiwa didapat kepadatan penduduk 1128 jiwa/km2, sedangkan kepadatan terendah terdapat pada desa windusakti, hanya 50 jiwa/ km2. selengkapnya angka kepadatan penduduk kecamatan salem kabupaten brebes yang dirinci per desa dapat dilihat tabel 4 dalam lampiran. struktur penduduk. (1) jenis kelamin. sex ratio adalah perbandingan banyaknya penduduk laki-laki dengan banyaknya penduduk perempuan pada suatu daerah dan waktu tertentu. biasanya dinyatakan dalam banyaknya penduduk laki-laki per 100 perempuan. berdasarkan tabel penduduk berdasarkan jenis kelamin di bawah, maka sex ratio kecamatan salem tahun 2007 sebesar (28518/27823 x 100) = 102,50 artinya setiap 100 perempuan dalam suatu kawasan di kecamatan salem, akan terdapat pula sebanyak 100 pria di dalamnya (lihat tabel 5 dalam lampiran) (2) tingkat pendidikan. struktur penduduk berdasarkan tingkat pendidikan yang dikenyam, menunjukkan nilai/kualitas sumberdaya manusia kecamatan salem di masa mendatang. jumlah penduduk kecamatan salem berdasarkan tingkat pendidikannya secara rinci disajikan pada tabel 6 dalam lampiran. (3) mata pencaharian. struktur penduduk menurut mata pencaharian dapat menggambarkan kondisi perekonomian penduduk dalam pemenuhan kebutuhan hidup. penduduk menurut mata pencaharian di kecamatan salem dari yang terbesar ke terkecil yaitu; petani/peternak, pedagang, buruh bangunan, jasa-jasa, buruh industri, pns/abri, nelayan, pengangkutan, pengusaha dan pensiunan. penduduk kecamatan salem sebagian besar bermata pencaharian sebagai petani/peternak yaitu sebanyak 17553. penduduk, sebagai buruh tani sebanyak 7723 jiwa. lebih jelasnya dapat dilihat pada tabel 7 dalam lampiran. kondisi perekonomian kecamatan salem kondisi perindustrian. kondisi perindustrian di kecamatan salem dapat dikelompokkan menjadi industri kecil formal dan non formal. industri kecil formal terdiri dari industri kecil formal cabang industri agro dan industri formal cabang industri tekstil. sedangkan industri kecil non formal terdiri dari industri kecil non formal cabang industri agro, tekstil, dan logam, elektronik dan kimia aneka. di kecamatan salem terdapat 11 industri kecil dan industri rumah tangga. industri kecil terdapat di beberapa desa yaitu di desa kedungmanis, bentarsari, bantar, dan wanoja. sedangkan industri rumah tangga tersebar di selurah desa. selengkapnya lihat tabel 8 dalam lampiran. industri yang ada di kecamatan salem antara lain industri makanan (sale pisang), industri pakaian jadi, pembuatan minyak nilam, industri batik tulis, dan sabun cuci. berdasarkan gambaran umum di atas dapat dikaji secara awal potensi dan permasalahan yang terdapat di kecamatan salem antara lain: (1) potensi. berdasarkan letak geografis kecamatan salem, posisi geografis kecamatan ini merupakan potensi strategis yang mampu mendukung perkembangan kabupaten brebes mengingat salah satu fungsi dan peran kecamatan salem sebagai dan pusat kota salem pada sswp iii.2. potensi sektor kependudukan yang dapat dilihat di kecamatan salem antara lain: (a) jumlah penduduk di kecamatan salem yang perkembangannya selalu mengalami peningkatan merupakan gambaran adanya potensi ketersediaan sumberdaya manusia di kecamatan salem; (b) kepadatan penduduk yang tidak merata di seluruh kecamatan salem me potensi kecamatan salem dalam pendapatan asli daerah (caroline) 81 nunjukkan bahwa kecamatan salem masih memiliki potensi sebagai kawasan pengembangan perkotaan; (c) adanya potensi sumberdaya manusia yang didukung dengan tingkat pendidikan. hal itu dilihat dari adanya jumlah penduduk yang menyelesaikan pendidikan sampai tahap diploma atau perguruan tinggi, meskipun masih terdapat jumlah penduduk yang belum tamat sd; (d) adanya potensi sumberdaya manusia sebagai potensi tenaga kerja. hal itu digambarkan dari adanya dominasi penduduk berdasarkan umur merupakan usia produktif. (e) berdasarkan mata pencaharian penduduk menggambarkan adanya potensi sumberdaya manusia yang mendukung bidang pertanian, mengingat jenis mata pencaharian paling banyak adalah sebagai petani/peternak. adanya potensi pengembangan kecamatan salem dengan pengembangan penggunaan lahan non pertanian. hal itu ditunjukkan dengan adanya luas lahan bukan sawah memiliki jumlah yang lebih besar dari pada lahan sawah yaitu sebesar 12.650 ha (83 persen). potensi sarana dan prasarana di kecamatan salem: (a) adanya potensi ketersediaan sarana pendidikan dari jenjang pendidikan tk, sd, sltp, dan slta, (b) adanya potensi ketersediaan sarana peribadatan sebagai sarana untuk ibadah penduduk di kecamatan salem. (c) adanya potensi ketersediaan sarana kesehatan di kecamatan sirampog yang terdiri atas puskesmas/pustu, dokter praktek, bidan praktek dan dukun bayi. (e) adanya potensi ketersediaan sarana perekonomian yang berperan besar dalam pelayanan ekonomi di kecamatan salem di antaranya yaitu: pasar umum/hewan/ikan, toko/ warung, bank, badan perkreditan, koperasi, kud, buud, warung makan, dan rumah makan. (f) adanya potensi ketersediaan sarana perumahan dengan kondisi yang cukup baik. hal itu dapat digambarkan dari kondisi sarana perumahan di kecamatan salem secara dominan memiliki rumah dengan jenis rumah tembok dan rumah sebagian tembok. adanya potensi pelayanan telekomunikasi yang bisa untuk dikembangkan mengingat sudah adanya jaringan telekomunikasi yang masuk di kecamatan salem. potensi perekonomian. jika dilihat dari data dan kebijakan dalam rtrw kabupaten brebes maka: (a) adanya potensi perekonomian dari sektor pertanian tanaman pangan, yang menjadi sentra ubi jalar dan ubi kayu, sentra kelapa dan kelapa hibrida, sentra kakao, sentra jambu mete, sentra tanaman nilam; (b) adanya potensi sektor peternakan dengan sentra ternak sapi, sentra ternak kerbau; (c) potensi perikanan berupa pusat pengembangan perikanan kolam. (d) adanya potensi industri dengan jenis industri kecil dan rumah tangga yang juga ikut memberikan kontribusi dalam penyerapan tenaga kerja. sentra industri yang ada berupa sentra industri batik tulis di bentrasari. adanya potensi sumberdaya alam berupa air, yang digambarkan dari adanya sumber air yang terdapat di kecamatan salem. adanya potensi kawasan strategis kecamatan yaitu kawasan strategis untuk kepentingan lingkungan hidup yaitu kecamatan salem sebagai pengembangan kawasan konservasi alam. swot kecamatan salem posisi strategis kecamatan salem berdasarkan hasil analisis swot yang telah dilakukan. secara rinci hasil swot yang menggambarkan posisi strategis pengembangan kecamatan salem dapat dilihat pada tabel 9 dalam lampiran. hasil analisis swot pada tabel 9 menunjukkan bahwa: (1) variabel internal mempunyai kekuatan yang lebih kecil dari pada kelemahan dengan skor akhir -0,55. (2) variabel eksternal memiliki nilai ancaman lebih besar dibandingkan nilai peluang, sehingga memperoleh nilai – 1,1. hasil tersebut menempatkan kecamatan salem berada pada posisi strategis iii, hasil analisis delphi dapat disajikan pada gambar 1. gambar 1 menunjukkan bahwa posisi kecamatan salem kabupaten brebes berada pada posisi strategis iii. kondisi ini menggambarkan perkembangan kecamatan salem perlu didukung dari adanya pengembangan variabel internal dan eksternal. pengembangan kedua variabel tersebut perlu dilakukan dengan inte jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 11, nomor 1, april 2010: 73-97 82 grasi dan saling melengkapi. hal itu perlu dilakukan mengingat posisi pengembangan kecamatan salem masih sangat minim. strategi pengembangan yang terintegrasi tersebut perlu dilakukan sebagai upaya untuk membawa perkembangan kecamatan salem kearah yang lebih berkembang dari kondisi sekarang ini. berdasarkan posisi strategis yang dimiliki kecamatan salem, maka dalam pengembangannya dapat dirumuskan beberapa strategi antara lain: (1) pemantapan pengembangan kecamatan salem sesuai dengan arahan utama untuk pertanian tanaman pangan lahan kering, perdagangan, perhubungan dengan salem, industri kecil dan sebagai pengembangan kawasan konsservasi alam; (2) peningkatan kualitas sumber daya manusia melalui peningkatan hdi (human development indeks/ipm); (3) pengoptimalan pertanian untuk mendukung potensi ekonomi khususnya sektor pertanian di kecamatan salem; (4) peningkatan kualitas dan kuantitas infrastruktur dalam pemenenuhan kebutuhan masyarakat kecamatan salem, lihat tabel 11 dan tabel 12 dalam lampiran. berdasarkan hasil analisis yang telah dilakukan pada tahap sebelumnya, maka kecamatan salem menduduki posisi strategis ketiga dapat dirumuskan skenario pengembangan pembangunan kecamatan di kabupaten brebes, lihat gambar 2 dalam lampiran. simpulan simpulan dari hasil analisis pada pembahasan sebelumnya adalah sebagai berikut: kecamatan salem menduduki posisi strategis ketiga artinya pengembangan kecamatan perlu memperhatikan kedua faktor yang berpengaruh baik internal maupun ekternal yang saling terintegrasi. program-program yang akan dikembangkan meliputi aspek: sumber daya manusia, penggunaan lahan, perekonomian, sarana pendidikan, sarana kesehatan, jaringan listrik, jaringan telepon, jaringan drainase, jaringan air bersih, dan jaringan jalan. dalam rangka pelaksanaan otonomi dae gambar 1. posisi strategis kecamatan salem potensi kecamatan salem dalam pendapatan asli daerah (caroline) 83 rah seperti yang diamanatkan oleh undangundang nomor 33 tahun 2004 tentang pemerintahan daerah dan undang-undang nomor 34 tahun 2004 tentang perimbangan keuangan pemerintah pusat dan daerah, disebutkan bahwa suatu daerah yang tidak mampu membiayai sumber pelaksanaan otonomi daerah akan dimerger (digabungkan) atau dihapuskan. berdasarkan kebutuhan dan tuntutan zaman maka perlu adanya perluasan wilayah dalam rangka menambah sumber penerimaan daerah, yaitu salah satu cara untuk meningkatkan pendapatan asli daerah (pad) kabupaten brebes adalah studi potensi kecamatan salem. daftar pustaka bahl, roy. 1999. implementation rule fiscal desentralisation, atlanta: international studies program school of policy studies, georinia state university. balai penerbitan panca usaha. 2001. undangundang no. 34 tahun 2000 tentang perubahan atas undang-undang nomor 18 tahun 1997 tentang pajak dan retribusi daerah. bandung: cv. laksana mandiri. caroline. 2004. analisis penerimaan retribusi pasar kota salatiga. semarang: undip (tesis yang tidak dipublikasikan) darumurti, krisna d., dan umbu raunta. 2000. otonomi daerah perkembangan, pemikiran dan pelaksanaan. bandung: pt. citra aditya bakti. davey. 1988. pembiayaan pemerintah daerah, terjemahan amanullah. jakarta: ui press devas, nick, brian binder, anne booth, kennet davey dan roy kelly. 1989. keuangan pemerintah daerah di indonesia, terjemahan masri maris. jakarta: penerbit ui press. djamin, 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sekitar peningkatan pendapatan daerah. prisma no. 12, tahun xiv. jakarta: lp3es. kuncoro, mudrajat. 1995. desentralisasi fiskal di indonesia. prisma, no. 4 tahun. xxiv. lians, alfian. 1985. pendapatan daerah dalam ekonomi orde baru. prisma no. 4 tahun xiv. mangkoesoebroto, guritno. 1995. ekonomi publik. yogyakarta: bpfe. mardiasmo. 2001. manajemen penerimaan daerah dan struktur apbd dalam era otonomi daerah. kajian ekonomi dan bisnis stiekers, vo. 5, no. 29, tahun 2001. mardiasmo. 2001. pengawasan, pengendalian dan pemeriksaan kinerja pemerintah daerah dalam melaksanakan otonomi daerah. jurnal bisnis dan akuntansi, vol. 3, no. 2, tahun 2001. mardiasmo. 2001. peningkatan pendapatan asli daerah: permasalahan dan kebijakan, makalah yang disampaikan dalam sidang ple jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 11, nomor 1, april 2010: 73-97 84 no ikatan sarjana ekonomi indonesia ke10 di batam mardiasmo. 2002. otonomi dan manajemen keuangan daerah. yogyakarta: penerbit andi. marzuki. 1995. 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supriady, deddy. 2001. otonomi penyelenggara pemerintah daerah. jakarta: gramedia. suprihanto, john. 1997. pengukuran tingkat kepuasan pelayanan. jakarta: rineka cipta supriyatna, tjahya. 1992. sistim administrasi pemerintahan di daerah. jakarta: bumi aksara. susantun, indah. 2000. fungsi keuntungan cobb douglas dalam pendugaan efisiensi ekonomi relatif, jurnal ekonomi pembangunan, vol. 5, no. 2, edisi 2000. susijati, b hirawan. 1986. analisis tentang keuangan daerah di indonesia, eki vo. xxxiv no. 1. syamsi, ibnu. 1993. dasar-dasar kebijakan keuangan negara. jakarta: bima aksara. umar, husein. 2003. strategic management in action. jakarta: pt. sun. undang-undang no. 33 tahun 2004 tentang pemerintah daerah. undang-undang no. 34 tahun 2004 tentang perimbangan keuangan antara pemerintah pusat dan pemerintah daerah. potensi kecamatan salem dalam pendapatan asli daerah (caroline) 85 usman, b. 1977. pajak-pajak indonesia, jakarta: majalah mingguan pajak. waluya, harry. 2001. analisis rasio pad/ apbd terhadap kebijakan kemandirian keuangan daerah otonom, jurnal ekonomi dan bisnis fe universitas katolik indonesia atmajaya, vol. 1, no. 2, edisi agustus 2001. wantara, agus. 1995. analisis pendapatan asli daerah istimewa yogyakarta tahun 19701980 (tesis yang tidak dipublikasikan), yogyakarta: ugm. yulianti, asnafiah. 2001. kemandirian dan pertumbuhan ekonomi dalam menyongsong otonomi daerah, kajian ekonomi dan bisnis stiekers, vo. 5 , no. 29, tahun 2001. lampiran tabel 4. kepadatan penduduk kecamatan salem no. desa/kelurahan jumlah penduduk (jiwa) luas desa (km2) kepadatan jiwa/km2) 1 gunung jaya 906 5,66 160 2 indrajaya 3.134 10,02 313 3 banjaran 6.610 7,79 849 4 salem 7.237 10,75 673 5 gunung larang 1.918 5,13 374 6 gunung sugih 1.768 3,71 477 7 ganggawang 1.804 4,96 364 8 citimbang 1.670 7,6 220 9 kadumanis 839 7,36 114 10 gandoang 814 6,04 135 11 ciputih 3.278 9,28 353 12 bentarsari 6.238 5,62 1.110 13 bantar 3.947 5,82 678 14 pabuaran 2.909 2,58 1.128 15 tembongraja 4.119 12,63 326 16 gunung tajem 973 9,57 102 17 windusakti 426 8,47 50 18 winduasri 391 4,41 89 19 capar 744 8,47 88 20 wanoja 3.307 9,99 331 21 pasir panjang 3.309 6,23 531 jumlah 56.341 152,09 8.465 sumber: kecamatan salem dalam angka 2008                     jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 11, nomor 1, april 2010: 73-97 86 tabel 5. jumlah penduduk berdasarkan jenis kelamin di kecamatan salem no. desa/kelurahan laki-laki perempuan jumlah 1 gunung jaya 484 422 906 2 indrajaya 1.605 1.529 3.134 3 banjaran 3.254 3.356 6.610 4 salem 3.670 3.567 7.237 5 gunung larang 989 929 1.918 6 gunung sugih 924 844 1.768 7 ganggawang 897 907 1.804 8 citimbang 864 806 1.670 9 kadumanis 426 413 839 10 gandoang 414 400 814 11 ciputih 1.643 1.635 3.278 12 bentarsari 3.106 3.132 6.238 13 bantar 1.973 1.974 3.947 14 pabuaran 1.479 1.430 2.909 15 tembongraja 2.124 1.995 4.119 16 gunung tajem 479 494 973 17 windusakti 251 175 426 18 winduasri 202 189 391 19 capar 373 371 744 20 wanoja 1.690 1.617 3.307 21 pasir panjang 1.671 1.638 3.309 jumlah 28.518 27.823 56.341 sumber: kecamatan salem dalam angka 2008 tabel 6. jumlah penduduk berdasarkan tingkat pendidikan di kecamatan salem tahun 2007  no. desa/kelurahan tidak/belum tamat sd/ tidak punya ijazah tamat sd tamat smp tamat slta tamat diploma/ universitas jumlah 1 gunung jaya 313 350 65 40 9 777 2 indrajaya 716 1.053 460 325 17 2.571 3 banjaran 2.744 2.120 380 181 44 5.469 4 salem 869 1.603 1.701 1.602 81 5.856 5 gunung larang 259 1.121 83 48 1 1.512 6 gunung sugih 403 766 93 70 5 1.337 7 ganggawang 253 121 503 282 211 1.370 8 citimbang 661 577 68 14 10 1.330 9 kadumanis 241 367 66 20 2 696 10 gandoang 170 458 52 12 1 693 11 ciputih 846 1.587 130 87 42 2.692 12 bentarsari 1.102 2.962 706 148 4 4.922 13 bantar 619 1.777 456 202 62 3.116 14 pabuaran 376 1.295 449 175 50 2.345 15 tembongraja 515 2.383 236 86 19 3.239 16 gunung tajem 179 519 28 21 0 747 17 windusakti 105 186 28 15 1 335 18 winduasri 144 135 25 5 0 309 19 capar 90 415 60 30 2 597 20 wanoja 643 1.568 260 153 57 2.681 21 pasir panjang 220 1.500 400 503 68 2.691 jumlah 11.468 22.863 6.249 4.019 686 45.285 sumber: kecamatan salem dalam angka 2008         potensi kecamatan salem dalam pendapatan asli daerah (caroline) 87 tabel 7. penduduk menurut mata pencaharian kecamatan salem no. desa/kelurahan p et an i/ p et er n ak b u ru h t an i n el ay an p en g u sa h a b u ru h in d u st ri b u ru h b an g u n an p ed ag an g s u p ir / k er n et p n s /t n i/ p o li si p en si u n an l ai n -l ai n ju m la h 1 gunung jaya 305 5 0 2 0 25 40 0 10 0 0 387 2 indrajaya 1.436 890 0 10 4 12 12 10 85 10 5 2.474 3 banjaran 1.540 908 0 12 0 405 131 22 75 23 175 3.291 4 salem 2790 1.125 0 377 15 282 280 170 268 80 341 5.728 5 gunung larang 591 48 0 4 0 20 32 0 10 1 0 706 6 gunung sugih 208 100 0 3 30 45 20 18 15 0 132 571 7 ganggawang 878 425 0 1 81 101 35 3 14 7 27 1.572 8 citimbang 477 300 0 0 0 50 0 0 4 1 0 832 9 kadumanis 562 8 0 16 0 0 6 0 2 0 1 595 10 gandoang 382 0 0 0 56 20 4 1 1 4 6 474 11 ciputih 1.010 525 0 1 0 0 35 10 15 1 34 1.631 12 bentarsari 1.509 706 0 23 15 67 32 28 85 22 5 2.492 13 bantar 974 573 0 5 0 20 204 35 34 3 91 1.939 14 pabuaran 526 457 0 390 0 105 10 0 37 1 0 1.526 15 tembongraja 2.185 75 0 0 25 50 35 0 60 46 6 2.482 16 gunung tajem 342 208 0 3 0 23 12 2 1 1 39 631 17 windusakti 80 65 0 1 0 0 8 0 3 2 0 159 18 winduasri 207 30 0 0 0 12 6 15 0 1 0 271 19 capar 150 505 0 0 0 9 40 0 2 0 0 706 20 wanoja 753 600 0 10 20 300 40 3 34 6 150 1.916 21 pasir panjang 648 170 0 11 45 35 52 8 43 0 31 1.043 jumlah 17.553 7.723 0 869 291 1.581 1.034 325 798 209 1.043 31.426 sumber: kecamatan salem dalam angka 2008   tabel 8. kondisi perindustrian di kecamatan salem tahun 2007 no. desa/kelurahan industri kecil industri rt jumlah 1 gunung jaya 0 4 4 2 indrajaya 0 16 16 3 banjaran 0 260 260 4 salem 0 32 32 5 gunung larang 0 22 22 6 gunung sugih 0 4 4 7 ganggawang 0 249 249 8 citimbang 0 6 6 9 kadumanis 1 20 21 10 gandoang 0 200 200 11 ciputih 0 170 170 12 bentarsari 3 301 304 13 bantar 6 364 370 14 pabuaran 0 285 285 15 tembongraja 0 30 30 16 gunung tajem 0 233 233 17 windusakti 0 40 40 18 winduasri 0 41 41 19 capar 0 25 25 20 wanoja 1 22 23 21 pasir panjang 0 76 76 jumlah 11 2.400 2.411 sumber: kecamatan salem dalam angka 2008 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 11, nomor 1, april 2010: 73-97 88 tabel 9. hasil analisis swot untuk lingkungan internal kecamatan salem no lingkungan internal bobot k-l tertimbang kekuatan kelemahan 1 sumberdaya manusia (sdm) 10 -0,05 0,075 0,125 2 penggunaan lahan 10 0,06 0,12 0,06 3 perekonomian 10 0 0,12 0,12 4 sarana pendidikan 10 -0,2 0 0,2 5 sarana kesehatan 10 -0,16 0 0,16 6 jaringan listrik 10 0,3 0,3 0 7 jaringan telepon 10 -0,1 0 0,1 8 jaringan drainase 10 -0,1 0 0,1 9 jaringan air bersih 10 -0,1 0 0,1 10 jaringan jalan 10 -0,2 0 0,2 jumlah 100 -0,55 0,615 1,165 sumber: hasil analisis tim penyusun, 2009       tabel 10. hasil analisis swot untuk lingkungan eksternal no lingkungan eksternal bobot p-a tertimbang peluang ancaman 1 keterkaitan struktur ruang 35 -0,7 0 0,7 2 sistem transportasi 35 -0,7 0 0,7 3 kebijakan yang terkait 30 0,3 0,45 0,15 jumlah 100 -1,1 0,45 1,55 sumber: hasil analisis tim penyusun, 2009 potensi kecamatan salem dalam pendapatan asli daerah (caroline) 89 tabel 11. strategi kecamatan salem variabel internal variabel eksternal kekuatan (strength) variabel kekuatan internal kelemahan (weakness) variabel kelemahan internal peluang (opportunity) variabel peluang eksternal strategi so (kekuatan – peluang) strategi wo (kelemahan – peluang) 1. sumberdaya manusia  mengembangankan kualitas sdm untuk menarik minat investor melalui peningkatan indeks pembangunan manusia (pendidikan, kesehatan dan kesejahteraan)  peningkatan kualitas sdm melalui pemberian ketrampilan pengelolaan pertanian dan industri untuk mendukung keberadaan potensi yang ada 2. penggunaan lahan  penetapan kebijakan tata ruang untuk mengatur perkembangan penggunaan lahan sebagai usaha untuk mempertahankan keberadaan lahan produktif di kecamatan salem.  peningkatan produktivitas lahan dengan dukungan pengembangan infrastruktur, misalnya jaringan jalan (aksesibilitas)  peningkatan kegiatan dalam mengembangkan dan mempertahankan lahan produktif yang diiringi dengan kekuatan aturan hukum. 3. perekonomian  peningkatan skala pelayanan sarana perekonomian untuk mendukung aliran (distribusi) barang hasil pertanian, industri, dan setbagainya seperti aksesibilitas pasar, koperasi, dan lain-lain  peningkatan produksi sektor pertanian, peningkatan potensi sektor ekonomi pada industri kecil dan rumah tangga untuk menarik minat investor melalui pengembangan sarana perekonomian 4. sarana pendidikan  pengembangan sarana pendidikan melalui peningkatan kualitas maupun kuantitasnya untuk pemerataan palayanan pendidikan sesuai struktur ruang  peningkatan jenjang (strata) pendidikan yang diiringi dengan dukungan tenaga pendidik yang handal untuk mengoptimalkan potensi sdm 5. sarana kesehatan  pengembangan sarana kesehatan untuk mendukung peningkatan kualitas hidup masyarakat di kecamatan salem  peningkatan tenaga medis yang handal untuk mengoptimalkan kualitas kesehatan masyarakat 6. jaringan listrik 1. sumberdaya manusia  peningkatan kualitas sdm untuk mendukung indeks pembangunan manusia melalui aspek pendidikan, kesehatan dan kesejahteraan.  peningkatan profesionalisme tenaga kesehatan dan tenaga pendidikan untuk menangkap peluang investor yang cukup besar. 2. penggunaan lahan  pengoptimalan kinerja dan kapasitas aparatur pemerintah dalam pengembangan penggunaan lahan.  penetapan dan penegasan penegakan hukum dalam pengaturan penggunaan lahan 3. perekonomian  penetapan kebijakan-kebijakan terkait dengan perekonomian,  penambahan sarana ekonomi baru seperti bank, koperasi dan sebagainya untuk kemudahan modal usaha 4. sarana pendidikan  peningkatan kualitas pendidikan, baik itu tenaga pendidik maupun metode pendidikan yang digunakan  penambahan sekolah-sekolah kejuruan dengan lulusan yang siap kerja 5. sarana kesehatan  peningkatan sarana kesehatan untuk pemerataan pelayanan  penambahan tenaga kesehatan yang handal 6. jaringan listrik  peningkatan jaringan listrik untuk pemerataan pelayanan  peningkatan daya untuk mendukung perkembangan industri pengolahan 7. jaringan telepon  pengembangan jaringan telepon untuk mempercepat penyampaian informasi bagi masyarakat  penambahan jaringan telepon untuk mendukung kegiatan ekonomi 8. jaringan drainase  peningkatan kondisi dan kualitas jaringan drainase menjadi sistem drainase permanen  penetapan aturan-aturan yang tegas jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 11, nomor 1, april 2010: 73-97 90 variabel internal variabel eksternal kekuatan (strength) variabel kekuatan internal kelemahan (weakness) variabel kelemahan internal  peningkatan daya listrik untuk mencukupi kebutuhan listrik domestik (industri) maupun domestik di kecamatan salem  peningkatan jaringan listrik untuk pemerataan pelayanan 7. jaringan telepon  peningkatan sambungan/jaringan baru untuk mendukung kelancaran komunikasi dan telematika di kecamatan salem  peningkatan jaringan nirkabel untuk pemerataan/pemenuhan pelayanan secara merata 8. jaringan drainase  peningkatan kondisi dan kualitas jaringan drainase menjadi sistem drainase permanen  peningkatan menajemen pengelolaan jaringan drainase (individu/komunal) 9. jaringan air bersih  peningkatan pengelolaan sumber mata air sebagai bahan baku pemenuhan air bersih  peningkatan jaringan dari segi kualitas (perpipaan/non perpipaan) dan kuantitas (jumlah pipa) 10. jaringan jalan  peningkatan kualitas jalan untuk memperlancar gerak distribusi barang hasil pertanian ke daerah sekitar  pengembangan moda transportasi untuk mepermudah masyarakat mencapai wilayah kecamatan terkait dengan penggunaan jaringan drainase (terpisah dengan sanitasi) 9. jaringan air bersih  pengembangan sarana pengolahan air bersih, seperti pembuatan instalasi pengolahan air, sumur bor, dsb  peningkatan sosialisasi kepada masyarakat untuk membuat sumur resapan guna menjaga kelangsungan air tanah 10. jaringan jalan  peningkatan kualitas jalan untuk menggali potensi yang ada secara optimal, misalnya dengan meningkatkan kelas jalan pada lokasi-lokasi strategis ancaman (threats) variabel hambatan eksternal strategi st (kekuatan – ancaman) strategi wt (kelemahan – ancaman) 1. sumberdaya manusia  peningkatan kualitas sdm untuk pengoptimalan pemanfaatan sda  pengoptimalan penciptaan lapangan pekerjaan baru yang didukung dengan sdm kualitas 2. penggunaan lahan  peningkatan produktivitas lahan dengan meminimalisasi adaya konversi lahan  penetapan kebijakan alih fungsi lahan sebgai upaya mempertahankan ketersediaan lahan produktif 3. perekonomian  peningkatan manajemen pengelolaan sda untuk mewujudkan pengelolaan sda yang berkelanjutan  penetapan peraturan dalam pemanfaatan sda untuk mendukung potensi sektor ekonomi misalnya peraturan terkait pemanfaatan sda 4. sarana pendidikan 1. sumberdaya manusia  mengembangkan program keluarga berencana secara terpau untuk mencegah terjadinya peledakan penduduk  peningkatan kualitas hidup masyarakat (peningkatan gizi, pola hidup sehat, dsb) 2. penggunaan lahan  penetapan area lahan pertanian abadi untuk mempertahankan keberadaaan sawah  penetapan insentif dan disinsentif sebagai sarana proteksi terkait kegiatan konversi lahan yang tidak terkendali 3. perekonomian  meningkatkan peran lembaga keuangan untuk mendukung usaha masyarakat  meningkatkan sosialisasi kepada potensi kecamatan salem dalam pendapatan asli daerah (caroline) 91 variabel internal variabel eksternal kekuatan (strength) variabel kekuatan internal kelemahan (weakness) variabel kelemahan internal  peningkatan teknologi untuk menciptakan kreativitas masyarakat guna terciptanya lapangan pekerjaan baru  peningkatan kurikulum sekolah kejuruan untuk mendukung pengelolaan sda misalnya politeknik 5. sarana kesehatan  sarana kesehatan untuk meningkatkan kualitas hidup yang masih rendah, misalnya gizi buruk,  peningkatan pemerataan jumlah dan persebaran kesehatan yang didukung oleh tenaga medis yang cukup 6. jaringan listrik  penambahan jaringan baru untuk mendukung kegiatan pembangunan masyarakat  penambahan lampu-lampu penerangan di tempat-tempat tertentu guna mendukung kegiatan masyarakat 7. jaringan telepon  perluasan jaringan baru untuk mencegah terjadinya isolasi wilayah  peningkatan jaringan telepon (internet) untuk meningkatkan pengetahuan masyarakat sehingga masyarakat dapat berpartisipasi secara aktif dalam pembangunan 8. jaringan drainase  peningkatan sistem jaringan drainase untuk mencegah terjadinya kondisi lingkungan yang buruk dan tidak sehat  pengembangan sistem drainase yang bisa bermanfaat bagi bidang pertanian 9. jaringan air bersih  pengembangan sumur resapan untuk mempertahankan keberadaan air tanah  peningkatan jaringan perpipaan sebagai upaya perluasan jangkauan pelayanan 10. jaringan jalan  perluasan trayek angkutan untuk memobilisasi ruang gerak masyarakat secara cepat  peningkatan jaringan jalan untuk mendukung terciptanya pemanfaatan sda secara optimal masyarakat untuk berwiraswata 4. sarana pendidikan  meningkatkan peran serta masyarakat dalam penyelenggaraan pendidikan  mengembangkan kursus-kursus ketampilan dan lembaga pendidikan informal lainnya untuk mengasah potensi masyarakat 5. sarana kesehatan  peningkatan sosialisasi terhadap masyarakat terkait dengan pentingnya hidup sehat  pengembangan lembaga kesehatan di tiap desa, minimal di setiap desa ada bidan/mantri 6. jaringan listrik  pengembangan jaringan baru untuk pemerataan pelayanan  peningkatan sosialisasi kepada masyarakat untuk hemat listrik (tepat guna) 7. jaringan telepon  pengembangan jaringan baru untuk pemerataan pelayanan  peningkatan jaringan nirkabel untuk pemerataan/pemenuhan pelayanan secara merata 8. jaringan drainase  peningkatan kondisi dan kualitas jaringan drainase menjadi sistem drainase permanen  peningkatan menajemen pengelolaan jaringan drainase (individu/komunal) 9. jaringan air bersih  peningkatan instalasi pengelolaan sumber mata air sebagai bahan baku pemenuhan air bersih  peningkatan jaringan dari segi kualitas (perpipaan/non perpipaan) dan kuantitas(jumlah pipa) 10. jaringan jalan  peningkatan peran serta masyarakat secara swadaya dalam pengembangan jaringan jalan  peningkatan kualitas jalan untuk memperlancar gerak barang dan manusia sumber: hasil analisis tim penyusun, 2009 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 11, nomor 1, april 2010: 73-97 92 tabel 12. skenario dan program kecamatan salem no. strategi kegiatan sumber pendanaan skpd keterangan i sumberdaya manusia 1 mengembangankan kualitas sdm untuk menarik minat investor melalui peningkatan indeks pembangunan manusia (pendidikan. kesehatan dan kesejahteraan) pengadaan seminar mengenai pembentukan kualitas manusia yang memenuhi standar ipm apbd. apbn. bln dinas pendidikan sdm bimbingan teknis secara berkala bagi tenaga ahli pendidikan untuk memenuhi standar kualifikasi *) apbd dinas pendidikan sdm 2 peningkatan kualitas sdm melalui pemberian ketrampilan pengelolaan industri untuk mendukung keberadaan potensi industri penyediaan dan pembangunan balai pengembangan keterampilan pengolahan industri. apbd dinas peridustrian dan perdagangan sdm pengembangan promosi dan pemasaran dengan pameran produk industri yang diproduksi. apbd dinas peridustrian dan perdagangan sdm 3 peningkatan kualitas sdm untuk pengoptimalan pemanfaatan sda penambahan pembekalan/ diklat mengenai pengoptimalan dan pemanfataan sda yang berkelanjutan pada tenaga kerja yang terkait. apbd dinas sosial. tenaga kerja & transmigrasi sdm peningkatan teknologi baru yang bisa digunakan dalam pengoptimalan pemanfaatan sda apbd dishubkominfo sdm 4 peningkatan pengetahuan masyarakat akan teknologi/informasi sosialisasi jaringan internet kepada masyarakat untuk menambah pengetahuan masyarakat akan jaringan internet. apbd dishubkominfo sdm 5 peningkatan profesionalisme tenaga kesehatan dan tenaga pendidikan untuk menangkap peluang investor yang cukup besar. pembinaan mengenai kode etik dan profesionalisme tenaga ahli yang berstandar internasional apbd dinas pendidikan sdm 6 mengembangkan program keluarga berencana secara terpadu untuk mencegah terjadinya peledakan penduduk. sosialisasi pentingnya keikutsertaan masyarakat terhadap program keluarga berencana *) apbd badan keluarga berencana dan pemberdayaan perempuan kesehatan 7 peningkatan kualitas hidup masyarakat (peningkatan gizi. pola hidup sehat. dsb) penyuluhan untuk menciptakan lingkungan sehat *) apbd dinas kesehatan kesehatan 8 meningkatkan sosialisasi kepada masyarakat untuk berwiraswata sosialisasi rutin kepada masyarakat terkait bidang kewirausahaan *) apbd dinas sosial. tenaga kerja dan transmigrasi ekonomi pembinaan kepada masyarakat tentang sistem dan cara-cara yang tepat dalam berwirausaha*) apbd dinas sosial. tenaga kerja dan transmigrasi ekonomi potensi kecamatan salem dalam pendapatan asli daerah (caroline) 93 no. strategi kegiatan sumber pendanaan skpd keterangan ii penggunaan lahan 1 penetapan kebijakan tata ruang untuk mengatur perkembangan penggunaan lahan sebagai usaha untuk mempertahankan keberadaan lahan produktif di kecamatan salem penyusunan rencana melalui studi tata ruang dalam pemanfaatan lahan di kecamatan salem*) apbd bappeda ekonomi 2 peningkatan produktivitas lahan dengan meminimalisasi adaya konversi lahan penetapan pedoman terkait kegiatan konversi lahan apbd bappeda ekonomi 3 tercapainya pengadaan tanah untuk tpa sampah pengadaan tanah tempat pembuangan akhir sampah *) apbd dpu dan tata ruang kesehatan 4 peningkatan keamanan kecamatan terhadap masalah bencana alam penyediaan daerah/kawasan evakuasi bencana apbd bappeda sdm iii perekonomian 1 peningkatan skala pelayanan sarana prasarana untuk mendukung aliran (distribusi) barang hasil industri pengembangan kemitraan usaha untuk perluasan akses usaha*) apbd dinas koperasi. umkm ekonomi 2 peningkatan kuantitas sarana prasarana seperti pengembangan pasar. koperasi. dan lain-lain dengan memanfaatkan letaknya yang strategis. penyediaan modal usaha untuk mendukung perkembangan ekonomi apbd dinas koperasi. umkm ekonomi peningkatan kualitas kelembagaan koperasi*) apbd dinas koperasi. umkm ekonomi 3 meningkatkan peran lembaga keuangan untuk mendukung usaha masyarakat penyediaan programprogram pinjaman dari lembaga keuangan dengan bunga lunak apbd dinas koperasi. umkm ekonomi 5 peningkatan potensi ekonomi kecamatan. pengembangan potensi pertanian melalui intensifikasi dan diversifikasi pertanian apbd dinas pertanian tanaman pangan dan hortikultura ekonomi pengembangan potensi pariwisata melalui promosi dan pemasaran apbd dinas pariwisata ekonomi iv sarana pendidikan 1 pengembangan sarana pendidikan melalui peningkatan kualitas maupun kuantitasnya untuk pemerataan palayanan pendidikan skala kota. pengembangan sarana pendidikan yang disesuaikan dengan jenjang pendidikan *) apbn dan apbd dinas pendidikan pendidikan pengembangan mata pelajaran (muatan lokal) yang tepat untuk mendukung pengembangan potensi lokal apbd dinas pendidikan pendidikan monitoring. evaluasi dan pelaporan kegiatan pendidikan apbd dinas pendidikan pendidikan pembangunan dan rehabilitasi gedung sekolah sd/smp/sma dpu dan tata ruang pendidikan jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 11, nomor 1, april 2010: 73-97 94 no. strategi kegiatan sumber pendanaan skpd keterangan 2 peningkatan teknologi untuk menciptakan kreativitas masyarakat guna terciptanya lapangan pekerjaan baru. penambahan teknologi baru/teknologi tepat guna dalam pengembangan potensi lokal apbd dinas pendidikan pendidikan 3 penambahan sekolah-sekolah kejuruan dengan lulusan yang siap kerja pengembangan sekolah baru dengan jurusan baru yang berbasis pada keterampilan. apbd dinas pendidikan pendidikan penyediaan sarana prasarana pendukung kegiatan sesuai dengan kejuruannya. misalnya laboratorium*) apbn. apbd dinas pendidikan pendidikan 4 mengembangkan kursus-kursus ketampilan dan lembaga pendidikan informal lainnya untuk mengasah potensi masyarakat pengadaan bahan dan materi pendidikan dan ketrampilan kerja. apbd dinas pendidikan pendidikan peningkatan mutu lembaga pelatihan kerja (lembaga pendidikan informal)*) apbd dinas pendidikan pendidikan v kesehatan 1 pengembangan sarana kesehatan untuk mendukung peningkatan kualitas hidup masyarakat di kecamatan salem pembangunan ruang rawat inap puskesmas salem*) apbd. apbn. bln dinas kesehatan kesehatan 2 peningkatan tenaga medis yang handal untuk mengoptimalkan kualitas kesehatan masyarakat menjalin kemitraan dalam rangka peningkatan kualitas dokter dan paramedis*) apbd dinas kesehatan kesehatan 3 peningkatan sosialisasi terhadap masyarakat terkait dengan pentingnya hidup sehat pengembangan promosi dan informasi sadar hidup sehat bagi masyarakat untuk pencapaian keluarga sadar gizi*) apbd dinas kesehatan kesehatan 4 pengembangan kelembagaan dan tenaga kesehatan di tiap desa penambahan/pengadaan bidan desa*) dinas kesehatan kesehatan pembangunan pkd/pos kesehatan disetiap desa apbd dinas kesehatan kesehatan vi jaringan listrik 1 penambahan lampu-lampu penerangan di tempat-tempat tertentu guna mendukung kegiatan masyarakat perbaikan/pemeliharaan lampu jalan di area rawan kecelakaan dan rawan kejahatan*) apbd dpu dan tata ruang ekonomi 2 peningkatan jaringan listrik untuk pemerataan pelayanan penyusunan rencana umum kebutuhan listrik apbd bappeda perluasan dan peningkatan kapasitas penyediaan listrik (pengembangan stasiun relai listrik) apbd dinas pengairan. energi dan sumberdaya mineral ekonomi 3 peningkatan daya untuk mendukung perkembangan industri koordinasi pengembangan ketenagalistrikan yang dikhususkan untuk kegiatan industri. apbd dinas pengairan. energi dan sumberdaya mineral ekonomi potensi kecamatan salem dalam pendapatan asli daerah (caroline) 95 no. strategi kegiatan sumber pendanaan skpd keterangan penambahan daya listrik untuk di alokasikan pada jaringan distribusi kegiatan industri apbd dinas pengairan. energi dan sumberdaya mineral ekonomi 4 peningkatan sosialisasi kepada masyarakat untuk hemat listrik (tepat guna) pembinaan kepada masyarakat tentang sistem dan cara-cara menghemat listrik*) apbd dinas pengairan. energi dan sumberdaya mineral sdm vii jaringan telepon/telekomunikasi 1 pengembangan jaringan telepon dan internet untuk mempercepat penyampaian informasi bagi masyarakat. pembinaan dan pengembangan bidang telepon dan telematika lain untuk mendukung informasi masyarakat*) apbd dishubkominfo ekonomi 2 pengembangan jaringan baru untuk pemerataan pelayanan koordinasi pengembangan sambungan/jaringan telepon baru (pengembangan stasiun relai). apbd dishubkominfo ekonomi viii jaringan drainase dan irigasi 1 peningkatan kondisi dan kualitas jaringan drainase menjadi sistem drainase permanen pembangunan saluran drainase selokan jalan utama *) apbd dpu dan tata ruang perbaikan saluran untuk meningkatkan kelancaran aliran air apbd dpu dan tata ruang 2 peningkatan menajemen pengelolaan jaringan drainase (individu/komunal) koordinasi pengembangan jaringan drainase apbd dpu dan tata ruang 3 pengoptimalan pengembangan sistem jaringan drainase untuk mencegah terjadinya kondisi lingkungan yang buruk seperti pembuatan talud permanen. dsb. pembuatan talud permanen untuk mendukung kinerja jaringan draianase *) apbd dpu dan tata ruang 4 pengembangan sistem drainase yang bisa bermanfaat bagi perindustrian pengembangan dan pengelolaan jaringan drainase yang tidak overlay dengan pengembangan jaringan sanitasi (limbah industri) dpu dan tata ruang 5 peningkatan sarana dan prasarana irigasi rehabilitasi jaringan irigasi di desa-desa *) dinas pengairan. energi dan sumberdaya mineral ekonomi ix jaringan air bersih 1 peningkatan pengelolaan sumber mata air sebagai bahan baku pemenuhan air bersih dan industri. peningkatan konservasi daerah tangkapan air dan sumber-sumber air *) apbd kantor lingkungan hidup kesehatan pemeliharaan dan rehabilitasi embung dan bangunan penampung air lainnya*) dpu dan tata ruang kesehatan 2 peningkatan jaringan dari segi kualitas (perpipaan/non perpipaan) dan kuantitas (jumlah pipa) pengecekan jaringan distribusi air bersih (perpipaan) dari resiko kebocoran dpu dan tata ruang ekonomi jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 11, nomor 1, april 2010: 73-97 96 no. strategi kegiatan sumber pendanaan skpd keterangan rehabilitasi / pemeliharaan sarana dan prasarana air bersih dpu dan tata ruang kesehatan 4 pengembangan sarana pengolahan air bersih. seperti pembuatan instalasi pengolahan air. sumur bor. dsb penyusunan master plan pengembangan sarana pengolahan air minum*) apbd dpu dan tata ruang kesehatan pembangunan instalasi air bersih untuk memenuhi kebutuhan masyarakat apbd dpu dan tata ruang kesehatan x jaringan jalan 1 peningkatan kualitas jalan untuk memperlancar gerak distribusi barang misalnya distribuhasil pertanian ke daerah sekitar rehabilitasi/pemeliharaan jalan dan jembatan *) apbd dpu dan tata ruang ekonomi 2 pengembangan trayek angkutan untuk memobilisasi ruang gerak masyarakat secara cepat dan menjangkau seluruh pelosok kecamatan salem pengembangan jaringan angkutan penumpang dan angkutan barang apbd dpu dan tata ruang ekonomi 3 penambahan/pengembangan trayek angkutan baru untuk mewujudkan pelayanan transportasi secara merata pengembangan angkutan/ moda untuk yang disesuaikan dengan trayeknya untuk memenuhi kebutuhan masyarakat. apbd dishubkominfo ekonomi penyusunan program pengembangan jaringan jalan lintas wilayah kabupaten/provinsi cilacap brebes kuningan (cibening) *) apbd dpu dan tata ruang ekonomi 4 pengembangan sarana dan prasarana transportasi pengadaan tanah dan perbaikan terminal kecamatan salem *) apbd dishubkominfo ekonomi pemeliharaan sarana dan fasilitas transportasi apbd dishubkominfo ekonomi pengadaan dan pemeliharaan pju apbd dishubkominfo keterangan: *) program terdapat di rpjm kabupaten brebes, renstra kecamatan sumber : hasil analisis tim penyusun, 2009 potensi kecamatan salem dalam pendapatan asli daerah (caroline) 97 gambar 2. posisi strategis kecamatan di kabupaten brebes jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 24 nomor 1, april 2023 article type: research paper market share and efficiency: causality test in indonesian general insurance industry iqram ramadhan jamil* and maman setiawan abstract: this study aims to analyze the relationship between market share and technical efficiency in the indonesian general insurance industry. the data for the period 2010-2020 is used, which was obtained from the indonesian financial services authority (ojk). the results show that efficient companies emerged from the category of industry possessing comparatively higher and lower market shares. furthermore, the panel granger-causality test indicates a one-way direction of causality, where only the market share has an impact on the technical efficiency score. the panel regression using the feasible generalized least square (fgls) model shows that market share has a negative impact on technical efficiency scores. other variables, such as the age of the industry, merger, and acquisition are listed in the stock exchange and do not have a significant effect on the efficiency score. based on the aforementioned findings, it can be inferred that the quiet-life hypothesis is applicable within the indonesian general insurance sector. consequently, the government must foster competition among the businesses operating within the industry. keywords: general insurance industry; market share; technical efficiency; causality analysis jel classification: l1; l8; c4 introduction risk and uncertainty are pervasive factors that impose substantial challenges on individuals, households, and governments. one viable approach to mitigating these risks is through the utilization of insurance services (sinha & dionne, 2001). since risk and uncertainty continue to escalate at both national and global levels, the role of the insurance industry is becoming increasingly crucial. this is evidenced by the growth of the non-bank financial institutions (nbfi) sector driven by an increase in the insurance industry (fsb, 2020). therefore, the role played by the insurance industry becomes crucial in mitigating risks and uncertainties in various domains, providing essential protection and stability for individuals, households, and governments (ojk, 2020). the general insurance industry has emerged as a thriving sector that consistently shows growth. from 2010 to 2020, the gross premiums within the industry have continuously expanded, reflecting an upward trajectory. simultaneously, the total assets in the general insurance sector have exhibited a positive trend during the same period (ojk, 2010, 2015, 2021). affiliation: department of economics, faculty of economics and business, universitas padjadjaran, west java, indonesia *correspondence: iqramramadhanj@gmail.com this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v24i1.17092 citation: jamil, i. r., & setiawan, m. (2023). market share and efficiency: causality test in indonesian general insurance industry. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 24(1), 144-163. article history received: 05 mar 2023 revised: 05 apr 2023 20 apr 2023 08 may 2023 accepted: 16 may 2023 https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=agqcrlaaaaaj&hl=en https://scholar.google.com/citations?hl=en&user=vlr1sgkaaaaj https://feb.unpad.ac.id/home-2/ https://feb.unpad.ac.id/home-2/ https://feb.unpad.ac.id/home-2/ https://feb.unpad.ac.id/home-2/ mailto:iqramramadhanj@gmail.com http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp http://dx.doi.org/10.18196/jesp.v24i1.17092 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v24i1.17092&domain=pdf jamil & setiawan market share and efficiency: causality test in indonesian general insurance industry jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 145 however, the industry has relatively slow growth with a negative trend, and from 2010 to 2020, the number decreased by an average of 1.2% annually. this condition indicates that there are barriers to entry into the market, serving as characteristics of concentrated industry (martin, 1979). meanwhile, high market concentration can affect efficiency and welfare (indiastuti & setiawan, 2020). this can be proven by the relatively low-efficiency value of indonesian insurance (eling & luhnen, 2010a), which has a low penetration in the economy compared to other asian countries (oecd, 2016). in contrast, the declining trend in the number of players may signify that only efficient industry capable of acquiring market share and generating profits can be sustained (esteve-pérez & mañez-castillejo, 2008; foster et al., 2008). these two competing explanations must be examined to determine the true underlying cause for the trend phenomenon. theoretically, two hypotheses can explain the relationship between industry’s dominance based on their market share and efficiency. the first hypothesis is the quite-life (ql) proposed by hicks (1935), where an industry in a monopoly condition will be free from competition and have low incentives in optimizing its efficiency (setiawan et al., 2012; alshammari et al., 2019). another hypothesis, namely the efficient structure (es) proposed by demsetz (1973), stated that industry with high efficiency could produce at low costs for increased profit and a higher degree of concentration. most studies conducted in the insurance industry indirectly test the es and ql hypotheses. there was a study that compared the es and structure-conduct-performance (scp) hypotheses, where the scp hypothesis stated that market structure can affect performance through industry behavior (mason, 1939; bain, 1951). this was shown by alhassan et al. (2015), where the es hypothesis was applied to both life and general insurance in ghana. besides the proof between the es and scp, some studies tested these two hypotheses with relative market power (rmp) hypothesis. rmp was developed by shepherd (1983), where market share was directly proportional to market power and accompanied by an increase in prices and profits. therefore, under certain conditions, the rmp and ql hypotheses can be similar (alshammari et al., 2019). the study on the property insurance industry conducted by choi & weiss (2005) showed a negative relationship between market share and price and profit, hence, the es hypothesis was applied to the studied industry. on the other hand, weiss & choi (2008) found that in the automotive insurance industry, the scp hypothesis did not apply because market concentration was not positively related to price. the rmp hypothesis did not hold for states with stringent pricing policies but was only applicable solely to those with a high competitive spirit. alhassan & biekpe (2016) found a positive influence between competition and efficiency in the general insurance industry in south africa. these findings indicated that competition was directly proportional to the efficiency scores of the industry. meanwhile, when the variable was lower, the efficiency also decreased, and ql hypothesis was considered to be valid. a similar result was also reported by alshammari et al. (2019) on jamil & setiawan market share and efficiency: causality test in indonesian general insurance industry jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 146 the takaful industry in the gulf cooperation council 1, where the positive relationship between competition and efficiency showed that the ql hypothesis was applied. this study has two objectives, first, to measure the market share value and the efficiency score of general insurance industry in indonesia. even though the concentration ratio (crn) or herfindahl-hirschman index (hhi) are typically used to assess the overall market structure, this study employs market share of individual industry as a proxy for competition. the choice is made by the crn and hhi methods due to the limitations to measure the overall market structure (pepall et al., 2014). this study focuses on conducting a detailed analysis at the industry level, hence, the utilization of market share is more appropriate for the study design. furthermore, the variable is calculated by determining the share concerning the total assets. this approach aligns with mainstream practices in the financial industry, and the efficiency score is measured using data envelopment analysis (dea). this method enables the assessment of relative efficiency scores for observed groups by employing the concept of a production frontier. dea also possesses the advantage of describing the structure of the production frontier and providing insightful information based on the economic background (quanling, 2001). this study also aims to fill the gap in testing the evidence of ql and es hypotheses in the indonesian general insurance industry. previously, abidin et al. (2022) only performed efficiency calculations in 2017 and 2018, while abidin & cabanda (2011) calculated the efficiency of the non-life insurance industry and also interacted with several variables without the inclusion of concentration or competition variables. the previous results did not provide a definitive understanding of the relationship between efficiency and an increase in market share, or the potential implications of the variables. therefore, there is a need to have a direct test between market share and efficiency to determine the applied hypotheses between ql and es. it can generate more appropriate policy implications for developing the industry by testing the applicability of es or ql hypotheses (setiawan et al., 2012). research method data this study utilizes panel data from industry operating in the general insurance sector from 2010 to 2020. the data used for calculating market share and conducting dea are obtained from the insurance statistics report published by the indonesian financial services authority (ojk). to avoid a possibility of bias from inflation, all nominal variables are deflated using the gdp deflator with the base year 2010 sourced from the central statistics agency (bps). this study also uses age and dummy merger & acquisition variables obtained from the industry’s official website and ojk insurance directory. the dummy variable listed on the indonesian stock exchange (idx) is sourced from the idx 1 the gulf cooperation council is an economic and political alliance of middle eastern countries. jamil & setiawan market share and efficiency: causality test in indonesian general insurance industry jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 147 website2. the more detailed information on data used in this study can be seen in table 1. table 1 definition and source of the variables variable name definition sources operational cost the amount of rupiah spends by industry to run its business activity. indonesian financial service authority (ojk) equity the sum of rupiah disbursed to the shareholders provided that the entirety of the industry’s assets has been liquidated and all liabilities have been duly settled. indonesian financial service authority (ojk) technical reserves the amount of rupiah is reserved to pay underwriting liabilities. indonesian financial service authority (ojk) net claims the amount of rupiah for unpaid claims at the end of the year is added to the claims paid in the current year, less outstanding claims at the beginning of the year, after deducting claims paid by reinsurance. indonesian financial service authority (ojk) investment income the amount of income generated by investment instruments, such as stock, bonds, and other securities. indonesian financial service authority (ojk) assets the value of assets, property, contracts, and things owned by the industry, especially those used for business operations, including receivables and prepaid expenses. indonesian financial service authority (ojk) industry age the age of the industry from the year of establishment to the year of observation. indonesian financial service authority (ojk) and industry official website merger & acquisition a dummy variable that indicates whether the industry was merged or not, "0", not merged or acquired, "1" when it experienced one time in the observation period, "2" when it experienced twice in the observation period. industry official website listed a dummy variable that indicates whether the industry is listed on the indonesian stock exchange (idx) or not, “0” when it is not listed on idx, “1” when listed on idx. indonesian stock exchange (idx) methodologies this study employed the methodological approach utilized by setiawan et al. (2012), which aimed to examine the evidence supporting the ql or es hypothesis within the industry. this approach comprises four stages of analysis, where the market share of insurance industry is calculated. subsequently, technical efficiency is measured using data envelopment analysis (dea), and in the next approach, this study employs the granger 2 data listed on the stock exchange can be accessed on the old indonesia stock exchange. www.idx.co.id/perusahaantercatat/profil-perusahaan-tercatat/ jamil & setiawan market share and efficiency: causality test in indonesian general insurance industry jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 148 causality test to investigate the causal relationship between the variables. panel regression is conducted to estimate the direction of the relationship between the two variables, based on the outcomes of the granger causality test. market share calculation in general, market share is the actual part of sales, both in terms of quantity and value of the company’s money to the entire market (cooper & nakanishi, 2010). in the insurance industry, it can be calculated through the number of assets conducted by (cummins et al. (1999) or through gross premiums accomplished by ansah-adu et al. (2011) and (alhassan et al. (2015). in this study, the market share calculation is conducted by comparing the assets with the total of the insurance industry in indonesia. efficiency measurement the efficiency measurements are carried out to determine the industry's performance compared to others. the method often used to measure efficiency in the insurance industry is dea (luhnen, 2009). meanwhile, dea is a non-parametric approach that uses linear programming to measure efficiency values based on the optimization of the combination of inputs to outputs (eling & luhnen, 2010b). each input-output combination of each decisions making units (dmu) 3 is compared with the most efficient unit of analysis and a value is obtained between 0 to 1. meanwhile, when the unit obtains 1 then the value is stated to be efficient, and further away from the number means an inefficient value. dea approach has several advantages to be applied in this study, and according to (cooper et al. (2011), it is a very flexible method used to evaluate efficiency in various contexts across many countries. the application model is relatively more convenient due to it only requires a few assumptions. dea also offers the possibility to use multiple inputs and outputs, which becomes a constraint for other methods because of the complexity to explain the relationship between these variables (cooper et al., 2011). however, it has a drawback, where this method required all variables to have a positive value and should not have a missing value (joseph, 2002). to satisfy these requirements, this study applied some adjustments. according to alhassan & biekpe (2016), the data were adjusted by adding a certain constant value due to the positive result obtained. meanwhile, there were limited alternatives to overcome the missing value, and dmu with incomplete data was eliminated. the dea model had two assumptions, charnes et al. (1978) proposed the assumption of constant return to scale (crs), while banker et al. (1984) introduced the assumption of variable return to scale (vrs). the crs assumption is valid only when each dmu operates at an optimal level but factors such as imperfect competition in markets can hinder optimal operation (casu & molyneux, 2003). therefore, this study employs the vrs assumption, since it acknowledges the possibility that dmus can operate at a sub-optimal 3 in this study, the dmu in question is an insurance company in indonesia. jamil & setiawan market share and efficiency: causality test in indonesian general insurance industry jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 149 scale diacon et al. (2002). it seeks to determine the technical efficiency of insurance industry in the form of the ability to maximize output from certain inputs (outputoriented) (setiawan et al., 2012). this is motivated by the assumption that there is a completion between the listed businesses (barros et al., 2005). as a result, the industry competes to maximize its output, and the dea-vrs model is denoted by the following equation: 𝑚𝑎𝑥𝜃,λ 𝜙, λ s.t. −𝜙𝑞𝑖 + 𝑄λ ≥ 0, 𝑥𝑖 − 𝑋λ ≥ 0, 𝑙1′λ = 1, λ ≥ 0, where, 𝜙 represents technical efficiency (farrell, 1957) with 1 ≤ 𝜙 ≤ ∞ and 𝜙 − 1 is a proportional increase in the output of industries i with a constant quantity of inputs. meanwhile, the efficiency score is denoted by 1/𝜙 whose value varies from 0 to 1 (coelli et al., 2005). input choice studies related to efficiency using dea have three choices of input factors, namely labor, business service, and capital. however, there are limited data on labor and business services for the insurance industry. cummins et al. (1999) and luhnen (2009) also proxied the two inputs by the operating costs divided by the average wage in the sector. this was not conducted due to the limited availability of data on average wages in the insurance sector. in this study, operational costs were used as a proxy for labor and business services according to diacon et al. (2002), ansah-adu et al. (2011), and alhassan et al. (2015). meanwhile, capital input is separated into two categories, namely debt and equity capital. luhnen (2009) proxied equity capital by equity, and technical reserves were used to represent the debt capital, according to by alhassan et al. (2015) and alshammari et al. (2019). output choice there are three principal approaches in selecting output in the financial services industry, namely asset (intermediation), user cost, and value-added. however, the value-added approach is commonly used in the literature because of its suitability for use in measuring efficiency (cummins & weiss, 2000). based on this approach, there is an assumption that insurance industry will provide three main services, including (a) risk pooling and bearing, (b) financial services related to insured losses, and (c) intermediation. the first two types of services are proxied by net claims according to luhnen (2009), even though there are other alternatives, by using premium as the proxy. the premium cannot represent the output because it is the value of quantity times price (yuengert, 1993). the output of intermediation services is proxied by investment income as stated by diacon et al. (2002), klumpes (2007), and alhassan & biekpe (2016). jamil & setiawan market share and efficiency: causality test in indonesian general insurance industry jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 150 the selected variables (both for input and output) for dea estimation are informed in table 2. table 2 list of input and output variables for dea input output operational cost net claims equity investment income technical reserves technical efficiency-industry market share to investigate the correlation between market share and technical efficiency and to determine whether the ql or the es hypotheses apply to the insurance industry, the study employs a panel granger-causality test. the regression model used is based on the study of setiawan et al. (2012), with the following equation. 𝑇𝐸𝑖𝑡 = 𝛼𝑗 + ∑ 𝛽𝐾 𝑇𝐸𝑖𝑡−𝐾 𝐾 𝐾=1 + ∑ 𝛾𝐾 𝑀𝑆𝑖𝑡−𝐾 + 𝑣𝑖𝑡 𝐾 𝐾=1 𝑀𝑆𝑖𝑡 = 𝜆𝑗 + ∑ 𝛼𝐾 𝑇𝐸𝑖𝑡−𝐾 𝐾 𝐾=1 + ∑ 𝛿𝐾 𝑀𝑆𝑖𝑡−𝐾 + 𝑖𝑡 𝐾 𝐾=1 where the te and ms variables are the technical efficiency and market share of the insurance industry. the variables will be transformed into log form to ensure that te remains in the range of 0 and 1 even though ms has increased. since panel data are used, panel var specification and moment condition should be noted to obtain optimal lag order in the var estimation. mmsc, proposed by (andrews & lu, 2001), can be applied to show various commonly-used maximum likelihood-based model-selection criteria, such as the akaike information criteria (aic), the bayesian information criteria (bic), and the hannan-quinn information criteria (hqic) (abrigo & love, 2016). by conducting this test, this study aims to identify which theory, either ql or es hypothesis, is more applicable. subsequently, a panel regression analysis is performed based on the outcomes of the panel granger-causality test. 𝑦𝑗𝑡 = 𝑎𝑖 + 𝛽𝑥′𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽𝑧𝑖𝑡 + 𝑢𝑖𝑡 the variables x and y are determined by the results of the panel granger-causality test. the variables y and x are market share and efficiency when the es hypothesis holds. on the other hand, y and x denote efficiency and industrial concentration when the ql hypothesis holds. there is also z as a representation of several control variables used in the model. the selection of these control variables is very dependent on the results of the panel granger-causality test. for example, based on the study of alhassan et al. (2015), when the es hypothesis applies, the control used includes total assets, the ratio of losses to premiums obtained, the ratio of debt to assets, the growth rate of gdp, and the inflation rate. based on alhassan & biekpe (2016), when the ql hypothesis applies, the control variables used are diversification, total assets, age, claims to premium ratio, reinsurance to premium ratio, and debt to equity ratio. however, the selection of control jamil & setiawan market share and efficiency: causality test in indonesian general insurance industry jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 151 variables used will be readjusted based on the literature and the availability of data used. the panel data analysis has three possible models, namely pooled ordinary least squared (pooled ols) model, fixed-effect model (fem), and random-effect model (rem). the pooled ols model is applied by conducting regression without concern for cross-section and time-series elements on the data (gujarati & porter, 2009). the estimation from pooled ols model also faces bias and inconsistency caused by the unobservable constant variables. therefore, fem and rem can be used to solve these problems. fem overcomes the unobserved variable problem by incorporating time-demeaned data into the equation to remove the unobserved constant variable from the model. furthermore, rem overcame a similar problem by assuming that the unobserved constant variables were not correlated at all with any explanatory variables in the model (wooldridge, 2013). to determine the best model between the variables, the hausman test can be performed. this statistical test can show the relationship between unobserved constants to explanatory variables in the econometric model. fem is better to apply than rem when the exogenous assumption from unobserved constant variables is rejected. meanwhile, rem is preferred to fem when the exogenous assumption from unobserved constant variables is met (amini et al., 2012). the further step after determining the best model for panel data regression is the specification or heteroscedasticity test. heteroscedasticity is defined as a condition where the distribution of the residuals is not constant. the result of the t-test and f-test can be overstated and lead to incorrect conclusions regarding the level of significance when a regression model has a heteroscedasticity problem (gujarati & porter, 2009). to detect the problem, this study performs the modified wald test for groupwise heteroscedasticity, where the method is a residual variation test that allows the detection of problems, between cross-section units (baum, 2001). this study will apply the generalized least square (gls) model after detecting the heteroscedasticity problem. according to bai et al. (2021), the gls model is more efficient than the ols because it can directly account for heteroscedasticity in the estimation. result and discussion table 3 is a descriptive statistic from the adjusted data and the adjustment was made because there were 0 and negative values in several variables used as inputs and outputs in the dea method. however, adjustments were not made to the asset variable due to the completeness of the data values, as well as to produce the actual market share in the general insurance industry. based on table 3, there is a fairly high variation in each of the variables used in this study. jamil & setiawan market share and efficiency: causality test in indonesian general insurance industry jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 152 table 3 descriptive statistics from 2010 – 2020 in billion rupiah variables obs mean std dev min max operational cost 831 610.469 102.784 42.778 731.612 equity 831 720.321 924.996 3.844 7216.718 technical reserves 831 455.354 727.749 10 5657.513 net claims 831 383.525 300.422 3.125 4545.311 investment income 831 65.298 93.437 6.758 694.213 asset 846 1110.1555 1840.638 1.7151 12804.13 sources: ojk, processed by authors after making several adjustments and conducting dea, the market share value and technical efficiency score of the general insurance industry in the 2010-2020 periods were obtained. as shown in table 4, the concentration ratio is used to capture market competition conditions in general (crn). in addition, the efficiency values that have been estimated using the dea method are also disclosed4. the level of market concentration demonstrates a downward trend until 2015, followed by an upward movement. simultaneously, the estimated efficiency scores display a negative trajectory. in the context of this present study, these findings indicate that reduced market concentration can result in decreased efficiency. however, when market concentration increases, it does not necessarily lead to an increase in the efficiency score. relying solely on this information, there is no distinct correlation between efficiency and market concentration. table 4 average efficiency score and market concentration for the indonesian general insurance industry in 2010-2020 year efficiency cr4 cr8 2010 0.925 39.376 61.724 2011 0.926 35.867 58.067 2012 0.865 33.416 54.578 2013 0.857 33.303 55.921 2014 0.832 33.228 51.940 2015 0.809 33.315 51.903 2016 0.835 34.675 52.598 2017 0.833 33.976 52.137 2018 0.782 33.771 52.511 2019 0.740 33.742 53.897 2020 0.790 34.700 53.804 note: cr4 is the concentration ratio of four industries, cr8 is the concentration ratio of eight industries table 5 shows that from 2010-2020 there are several general insurance industries with a high average level of market share and efficiency value equal to 1, such as pt astra buana, pt asuransi umum panin, and pt asuransi sinar mas. in the same period there are several industries with a low average market share with an efficiency value equal to 1, namely pt asuransi wanamekar handayani, pt asuransi chubb indonesia, and pt asuransi puri asih. however, the three industries (pt asuransi wanamekar handayani, pt asuransi chubb 4 the efficiency score for each dmu is presented in table 8 (see the appendix). jamil & setiawan market share and efficiency: causality test in indonesian general insurance industry jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 153 indonesia, and pt asuransi puri asih) have ceased to operate since 2011. in addition to the level of efficiency, the value of market share also determines the ability to survive in the general insurance market in indonesia. table 5 the indonesian general insurance industry average efficiency score based on market share condition in periods 2010-2020 high market share industry low market share industry industry’s name efficiency market share industry’s name efficiency market share pt asuransi astra buana 1.000 8.918 pt asuransi karyamas sentralindo 0.968 0.066 pt asuransi kredit indonesia (persero) 0.961 8.078 pt asuransi puri asih 1.000 0.064 pt asuransi jasa indonesia (persero) 0.661 8.040 pt lloyd indonesia 0.958 0.026 pt panin insurance tbk. (pt asuransi umum panin) 1.000 7.869 pt asuransi chubb indonesia 1.000 0.013 pt asuransi central asia 0.750 7.518 pt asuransi wanamekar handayani 1.000 0.004 based on table 5, the average efficiency value in industries with a high market share, such as pt asuransi jasa indonesia (persero) and pt asuransi central asia did not achieve an efficiency value equal to 1. the average value of efficiency is relatively lower compared to industries with the lowest average market share. this finding has not been able to show a clear relationship between an industry's market share and its technical efficiency. therefore, further analysis is needed to determine a clear relationship between the two variables. this study employs the panel granger-causality test using a vector autoregression (var) model and a forward orthogonal deviation (fod) approach to reduce the number of lost observations due to the unbalanced data (abrigo & love, 2016). meanwhile, the determination of the order is carried out using the model determination criteria (mmsc) by andrews & lu (2001) and the first 4 lags as an instrument. the lags are used to minimize the value of each selection criterion in mmcs, as explained by (abrigo & love, 2016). the first-order panel var model is selected because it has smaller mbic, maic, and mqic values compared to other orders. by using the fisher-type stationary test (choi, 2001), both the market share variable and the efficiency variable are significant at the 1% level, hence, panel granger-causality test can be carried out at the level of these variables. table 6 panel var granger-causality test block exogeneity wald tests dependent variables independent variables ms te te 1.365 ms 11.301*** notes: *** significant at 1% jamil & setiawan market share and efficiency: causality test in indonesian general insurance industry jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 154 table 6 shows the presence of a unidirectional causal relationship, where the ms variable exerts a substantial impact on the te variable. specifically, the market share of the industry influences its efficiency. this observation indicates that the applicable hypothesis for the general insurance industry in indonesia is the ql hypothesis. consequently, a thorough examination of the impact of market share on efficiency shall be conducted due to the aforementioned ql hypothesis. according to setiawan et al. (2012), this study uses a panel regression model as an additional test of the ql hypothesis in the observed industry. this method is used to determine the impact of market share on the technical efficiency score of general insurance industry. in the panel regression model, the market share variable is transformed into log form according to barros et al. (2010), hence, the data used can be distributed more normally. in addition, several control variables that can also affect the efficiency level of insurance industry are included, such as industry age, dummy mergers and acquisitions, and dummy listed on the stock exchange. these variables are selected because older industries have better adaptability and reputation than new industries (alhassan & biekpe, 2016). mergers and acquisitions can also provide benefits for industries such as increased investment income and increased income at every level of risk. insurance industries that carry out mergers and acquisitions can experience increased efficiency (cummins et al., 1999), and the dummy variable listed on the stock exchange is used to capture the effect of transparency on government requirements (barros et al., 2010). based on the results of the hausman test, the prob>chi2 value is 0.0069, where the null hypothesis is rejected or the fixed-effect model is more suitable to use than the randomeffect model. the heteroscedasticity test is carried out using the modified wald test for groupwise heteroscedasticity. the result shows that the value of prob>chi2 is equal to 0, or smaller than the p-value of 0.05. as a result, there is a heteroscedasticity problem in the model and this study uses the gls method to overcome these problems. the results of the estimates made with gls are shown in table 7. table 7 feasible generalized least squares (gls) results variables te ln(market share) -0.004*** (0.001) age 9.08*10-6 (7.22e-05) merger & acquisition -0.005 (0.003) listed 0.001 (0.004) constant 0.684*** (0.003) observation 831 number of industries 92 standard errors in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 jamil & setiawan market share and efficiency: causality test in indonesian general insurance industry jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 155 based on the feasible generalized least squares (fgls) in table 7, market share and technical efficiency have a negative relationship and are significant at a 1% level. this means that the market share owned by the industry is inversely related to the efficiency score. based on the results of the panel granger-causality test and panel regression, the ql hypothesis is proven in the indonesian general insurance industry. this finding is in line with previous studies with similar results in europe (fenn et al., 2008), south africa africa (alhassan & biekpe, 2016), and gcc countries (alshammari et al., 2019), where larger market share reduces the industry’s efficiency in the insurance market. there is a higher potential for industries with large market shares to become inefficient due to multiple business lines. according to a report by kpmg (2016), prominent industries in the sector engage in various business lines. by diversifying their products, these industries can expand consumer base and increase market share. however, the strategy often comes with the drawback of higher operational costs, placing a burden on the industry. according to hsieh et al. (2015), diversification can reduce performance due to the rise of agency costs and inefficient cross-subsidization business. an industry with a lower market share and a less diversified business line are more likely to have reduced inefficiency potential. it can become more efficient to operate in a certain business line while facing a lower operational cost. conclusion this study attempts to test the the applicability of the quiet-life (ql) hypothesis; which explains that the higher market share will reduce the efficiency of companies, and the efficient structure (es) hypothesis; which points out that the more efficient companies will gain a higher market share, through the panel granger-causality test in the indonesian general insurance industry in 2010 – 2020. in addition, this study also conducted panel data regression as an additional test of the applicable hypothesis. the estimation results show that industries with an efficiency score = 1 have relatively high and low market shares. the results of the granger-causality test show that there is a one-way causality relationship where only market share affects efficiency. based on these results, the ql hypothesis is applied to the general insurance industry in indonesia, and this is supported by the panel regression results where there is a negative effect on market share. the findings provide evidence supporting the validity of the ql hypothesis within the industry. consequently, the government should intervene and foster a competitive environment while facilitating free entry. by fostering increased competition, efficiency can be enhanced within the sector, ultimately leading to greater social benefits for society. industries should also strive to improve their efficiency by mitigating potential agency costs from operating in multiple lines of business. the limitation of the present study is the relatively narrow observation periods. as a result, the economic shocks (such as the covid-19 pandemic), which might affect technical jamil & setiawan market share and efficiency: causality test in indonesian general insurance industry jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 156 efficiency and market share cannot be controlled in the analysis. therefore, future studies can use a more extensive observation period, hence any shocks or events that could affect the insurance market ( especially in indonesia) can be controlled to produce a betterestimated coefficient to show the relationship between market share and technical efficiency. references abidin, z., & cabanda, e. 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(1993). the measurement of efficiency in life insurance: estimates of a mixed normal-gamma error model. journal of banking and finance, 17(2–3), 483–496. https://doi.org/10.1016/0378-4266(93)90047-h https://www.ojk.go.id/id/kanal/iknb/data-dan-statistik/asuransi/pages/statistik-perasuransian-2020.aspx https://www.ojk.go.id/id/kanal/iknb/data-dan-statistik/asuransi/pages/statistik-perasuransian-2020.aspx https://doi.org/10.1007/bf03183382 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2012.01.002 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-1874-5_9 https://doi.org/10.2307/2691545 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2007.09.010 https://doi.org/10.1016/0378-4266(93)90047-h jamil & setiawan market share and efficiency: causality test in indonesian general insurance industry jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 160 appendix table 8 data envelopment analysis (dea) results company's name 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 pt asuransi adira dinamika 0.775 0.815 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.929 1.000 0.894 0.750 0.672 0.614 pt asuransi artarindo 0.915 0.975 0.913 1.000 0.985 0.861 0.987 0.948 0.919 0.773 0.691 pt arthagraha general insurance 0.848 0.811 0.842 0.863 0.866 0.579 0.866 0.921 0.870 0.662 0.647 pt asuransi etiqa internasional indonesia (d/h pt asuransi asoka mas) 0.953 0.849 0.902 0.791 0.709 0.677 0.667 0.643 1.000 1.000 1.000 pt asuransi astra buana 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 pt asuransi bangun askrida 0.846 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 pt fairfax insurance indonesia (d/h batavia mitratama insurance) 0.921 0.959 0.932 0.954 1.000 0.583 1.000 pt berdikari insurance 0.895 0.879 0.870 0.863 0.821 1.000 1.000 0.875 0.740 0.644 pt asuransi bhakti bhayangkara 0.867 0.920 0.937 1.000 1.000 0.922 0.988 0.994 1.000 0.850 0.897 pt asuransi bina dana arta tbk. 1.000 0.934 0.914 0.842 0.832 1.000 0.795 0.738 0.842 1.000 1.000 pt asuransi binagriya upakara 0.921 0.842 0.682 0.753 0.820 0.680 0.733 0.677 0.748 0.912 pt asuransi bintang tbk. 0.900 0.973 0.738 0.763 0.786 0.889 0.794 0.669 0.573 0.577 1.000 pt bosowa asuransi (d/h pt asuransi bosowa periskop) 0.885 0.971 0.892 0.813 0.827 0.836 0.859 0.884 0.854 0.572 0.578 pt bri asuransi indonesia (d/h pt asuransi bringin sejahtera artamakmur) 0.814 0.842 0.731 0.690 0.506 0.323 0.470 0.516 0.442 0.672 0.712 pt asuransi buana independent 0.795 0.764 0.908 0.799 0.770 0.683 0.759 0.860 0.822 0.638 0.712 pt asuransi umum bumiputera muda 1967 1.000 1.000 0.791 1.000 1.000 0.634 0.745 0.762 0.666 0.624 0.745 pt asuransi central asia 1.000 1.000 0.866 0.612 0.727 0.592 1.000 0.874 0.594 0.390 0.667 pt citra international underwriters 0.933 0.920 0.930 1.000 0.908 0.963 0.956 0.900 0.561 0.832 pt asuransi dayin mitra tbk. 0.834 0.808 0.842 0.510 0.539 0.624 0.560 0.602 0.485 0.544 0.768 pt asuransi mandiri axa general insurance (d/h pt asuransi dharma bangsa) 0.892 1.000 0.606 0.643 0.908 1.000 0.962 0.993 0.751 0.911 1.000 pt asuransi eka lloyd jaya 0.906 0.962 0.971 0.928 0.952 0.937 0.986 1.000 0.910 0.858 0.878 pt asuransi asei indonesia (d/h pt asuransi ekspor indonesia (persero) 0.842 0.678 0.667 0.594 0.343 0.538 0.618 0.622 0.522 0.685 0.592 pt asuransi harta aman pratama tbk. 0.859 0.815 0.716 0.768 0.772 0.518 0.896 0.959 0.753 0.930 0.761 pt asuransi himalaya pelindung 0.937 0.902 0.938 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 pt asuransi fpg indonesia (d/h asuransi indrapura) 0.859 0.774 0.651 0.969 0.675 0.703 0.588 0.729 0.587 0.660 0.651 pt asuransi intra asia 0.895 0.950 0.962 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 jamil & setiawan market share and efficiency: causality test in indonesian general insurance industry jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 161 table 8 data envelopment analysis (dea) results (cont’) company's name 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 pt mnc asuransi indonesia (d/h asuransi jamindo general insurance) 0.903 0.969 1.000 0.899 0.841 0.566 0.715 0.784 0.823 0.644 0.812 pt asuransi jasa indonesia (persero) 0.759 0.727 0.776 0.692 0.690 0.651 0.558 0.782 0.697 0.500 0.759 pt asuransi jasa raharja putera 0.854 0.969 0.839 0.708 0.963 0.628 0.624 0.588 0.484 0.792 0.696 pt asuransi jasa tania tbk. 0.861 0.897 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.753 0.837 0.754 0.622 0.631 pt chubb general insurance indonesia (d/h pt ace jaya proteksi (d/h pt asuransi jaya proteksi)) 0.819 0.555 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.989 0.608 0.562 1.000 pt jaya proteksi takaful 0.924 pt asuransi karyamas sentralindo 0.968 pt asuransi kredit indonesia (persero) 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.990 1.000 0.910 0.889 1.000 pt lippo general insurance tbk. 1.000 0.920 0.795 0.946 0.938 0.519 0.995 0.901 0.641 0.711 0.655 pt lloyd indonesia 0.958 pt asuransi maipark indonesia 0.777 0.771 0.694 0.737 pt asuransi umum mega 1.000 0.956 1.000 1.000 0.957 0.631 0.885 0.837 0.709 0.637 0.756 pt asuransi mega pratama 0.876 0.928 0.864 0.819 0.819 0.731 0.810 0.794 0.728 0.615 0.704 pt asuransi kresna mitra tbk. (d/h pt asuransi mitra maparya) 0.838 0.779 0.848 0.892 . 0.777 0.962 1.000 1.000 0.466 . pt asuransi multi artha guna tbk. 0.773 0.693 0.730 0.974 1.000 0.981 0.776 0.501 0.318 0.310 0.339 pt pan pacific insurance 0.863 0.854 0.934 0.967 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 pt panin insurance tbk. 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 pt asuransi parolamas 0.846 0.768 0.661 0.795 0.782 0.604 1.000 0.902 0.874 1.000 pt asuransi puri asih 1.000 1.000 pt asuransi purna artanugraha 0.843 0.827 0.937 0.631 0.590 0.539 0.590 0.808 0.818 0.619 0.713 pt asuransi raksa pratikara 0.862 0.965 0.923 0.853 0.859 0.756 0.872 0.855 0.758 0.942 0.896 pt asuransi rama satria wibawa 0.921 0.825 0.899 0.694 0.864 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.903 1.000 pt asuransi ramayana tbk. 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.902 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 pt asuransi raya 0.887 0.926 0.907 0.914 1.000 1.000 pt asuransi recapital 0.901 0.909 0.761 0.768 0.840 0.859 1.000 1.000 pt asuransi reliance indonesia 0.950 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.419 1.000 1.000 0.959 0.878 1.000 jamil & setiawan market share and efficiency: causality test in indonesian general insurance industry jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 162 table 8 data envelopment analysis (dea) results (cont’) company's name 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 pt sarana lindung upaya 0.853 0.862 0.928 0.741 1.000 0.828 0.889 0.862 0.688 1.000 pt asuransi sinar mas 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 pt maskapai asuransi sonwelis 0.901 0.973 1.000 1.000 1.000 pt staco mandiri (d/h pt staco jasa pratama) 0.883 0.971 1.000 1.000 0.849 0.970 0.931 0.990 0.953 0.805 1.000 pt avrist general insurance (d/h pt asuransi starlite international) 0.937 1.000 0.958 0.958 0.922 0.862 0.899 0.888 0.894 0.650 0.824 pt asuransi takaful umum 0.904 pt asuransi umum bca (d/h pt central sejahtera insurance (d/h pt transpacific general insurance) 0.894 0.912 0.870 0.889 1.000 0.948 0.970 0.920 0.786 0.903 0.909 pt asuransi tri pakarta 0.803 0.746 0.815 0.688 0.515 0.605 0.558 0.511 0.580 0.655 pt asuransi perisai listrik nasional (d/h pt asuransi tugu kresna pratama) 0.886 0.850 0.853 0.627 0.627 0.689 0.650 0.551 0.495 0.514 0.561 pt tugu pratama indonesia 1.000 1.000 0.506 0.392 0.382 0.316 0.786 0.382 0.334 0.394 0.397 pt victoria insurance tbk. 0.916 0.990 1.000 0.982 1.000 0.901 0.933 0.913 1.000 0.710 pt asuransi videi 0.909 0.952 0.928 0.986 1.000 1.000 0.997 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 pt asuransi wahana tata 0.939 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.969 0.525 0.661 0.575 0.675 0.767 0.701 pt asuransi wanamekar handayani 1.000 pt malacca trust wuwungan insurance (d/h pt asuransi wuwungan) 0.963 0.994 0.895 0.939 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.914 0.893 1.000 0.719 pt ace ina insurance 0.806 1.000 0.925 pt asuransi sahabat artha proteksi (d/h pt bess central insurance (d/h pt asuransi aioi indonesia)) 1.000 0.957 1.000 0.847 0.795 0.617 0.843 0.846 0.817 0.665 0.759 pt asuransi allianz utama indonesia 1.000 1.000 0.730 0.557 0.747 0.617 0.835 0.650 0.674 0.716 0.881 pt asuransi axa indonesia 0.969 1.000 0.904 0.839 0.869 0.823 0.878 0.902 0.932 pt aig insurance indonesia (d/h pt chartis insurance indonesia) 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.580 0.578 0.688 0.682 pt china taiping insurance indonesia 0.864 0.981 0.913 0.648 0.663 0.601 0.587 0.585 0.572 0.451 0.592 pt asuransi chubb indonesia 1.000 1.000 pt meritz korindo insurance (d/h pt asuransi hanjin korindo) 0.911 0.982 1.000 1.000 0.858 0.789 0.811 0.807 0.772 0.539 0.550 pt ksk insurance indonesia (d/h pt kurnia insurance indonesia) 1.000 0.906 0.805 0.624 0.740 0.580 0.724 0.772 0.810 0.771 0.886 jamil & setiawan market share and efficiency: causality test in indonesian general insurance industry jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 163 table 8 data envelopment analysis (dea) results (cont’) company's name 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 pt kookmin best insurance indonesia (d/h pt lig insurance indonesia) 0.964 0.901 0.825 0.912 0.565 0.579 0.786 0.771 0.730 0.570 0.655 pt maa general assurance 0.958 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 pt asuransi msig indonesia 0.644 0.871 0.640 0.626 0.608 0.772 0.501 0.569 0.787 0.496 0.672 pt asuransi nipponkoa indonesia (d/h pt as. permata nipponkoa indonesia) 0.774 0.931 0.541 pt great eastern general insurance indonesia (d/h pt qbe general insurance indonesia (d/h pt asuransi qbe pool indonesia)) 0.814 0.846 0.763 0.766 0.773 0.780 0.700 0.845 0.705 0.633 0.622 pt asuransi samsung tugu 0.847 1.000 0.846 1.000 . 0.782 0.549 0.625 0.592 0.467 0.522 pt sompo insurance indonesia (d/h pt asuransi sompo japan nipponkoa indonesia (d/h pt sompo japan insurance indonesia) 0.876 0.943 0.587 0.547 0.654 0.547 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 pt asuransi tokio marine indonesia 0.797 0.832 0.583 0.663 0.634 0.607 0.625 0.712 0.589 0.731 0.803 pt zurich insurance indonesia 0.840 0.800 0.863 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.714 1.000 1.000 0.859 1.000 pt asuransi sumit oto 0.941 0.861 0.968 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 pt asuransi mitra pelindung mustika 0.985 0.880 0.778 0.657 0.648 0.651 0.550 0.655 0.726 pt asuransi cakrawala proteksi indonesia 1.000 0.674 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.789 pt asuransi simas insurtech (d/h pt asuransi simas net) 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.669 1.000 pt asuransi total bersama 0.672 0.863 pt asuransi candi utama 0.832 pt asuransi maximus graha persada tbk. 0.329 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 1, april 2017, hlm. 41-51 doi: 10.18196/jesp.18.1.3830 analisis potensi produk musyarakah terhadap pembiayaan sektor riil umkm trimulato dosen perbankan syariah universtias muhammadiyah parepare jl. jend. ahmad yani km. 6, bukit harapan, soreang, sulawesi selatan 91131 e-mail korespondensi: trimsiuii@yahoo.co.id naskah diterima: januari 2017; disetujui: april 2017 abstract: shariah banking in indonesia is growing to continued, seen from the account of customers continues to grow. by 2016 the market share of shariah banking has reached 5 percent translucent. the presence of act number 21, 2008 concerning shariah banking strengthens presence in shariah. in terms of financing in shariah banking still dominated by the financing by buying and selling is not for the profit sharing. contributions of musyarakah financing achieve 105,112,000,000,000 or by 62.29% of the total financing. while the financing agreement for the results of the identity of shariah banking only contributed 34.44% or rp 58,123,000,000,000. this paper uses a descriptive qualitative. limitations in this paper is focused on products with contract musharakah financing in shariah banking and real sector smes. this paper uses literature study from various sources. the results of this paper that the potential development of financing products with musyarkah contract in shariah banking is still very large. growth in the use musyarakah decreased in 2016 which grew only 13.79%. while credit growth to smes is still low does not exceed 20%. it is seen that the account of smes continues to grow, then the portion of musharakah financing products are still small. this indicates that the product musharakah financing in shariah banking are very suited to the conditions and character of smes. keywords: shari’ah banking, musyarakah financing, real sector of smes. jel classifications: g21, g23, l25 abstrak: perbankan syariah di indonesia terus mengalami pertumbuhan, terlihat dari jumlah nasabah yang terus bertambah. pada tahun 2016 pangsa pasar bank syariah telah tembus mencapai 5 %. hadirnya undang-undang nomor 21 tahun 2008 tentang perbankan syariah menguatkan keberadaan di bank syariah. dari sisi pembiayaan di bank syariah masih di dominasi oleh pembiayaan dengan jual beli bukan bagi hasil. kontribusi pembiayaan musyarakah mencapai 105.112.000.000.000 atau sebesar 62,29% dari total pembiayaan. sedangkan pembiayaan dengan akad bagi hasil yang menjadi identitas bank syariah hanya berkontribusi 34,44% atau sebesar 58.123.000.000.000. penulisan ini menggunakan jenis deskriptif kualitatif. batasan dalam tulisan ini difokuskan pada produk pembiayaan dengan akad musyarakah di bank syariah dan sektor riil umkm. tulisan ini menggunakan studi pustaka kajian dari berbagai sumber. hasil dari tulisan ini bahwa potensi pengembangan produk pembiayaan dengan akad musyarakah di bank syariah masih sangat besar. pertumbuhan penggunaan musyarakah baru mengalami penurunan pada tahun 2016 yaitu hanya tumbuh 13,79%. sedangkan pertumbuhan kredit bagi umkm masih rendah tidak melebihi 20%. terlihat bahwa jumlah umkm yang terus berkembang, kemudian porsi produk pembiayaan musyarakah yang masih kecil. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa produk pembiayaan pembiayaan musyarakah di bank syariah sangat cocok dengan kondisi dan karakter dari umkm. kata kunci: bank syariah, pembiayaan musyarakah, sektor riil umkm klasifikasi jel: g21, g23, l25 42 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 1, april 2017: 41-51 pendahuluan ide dasar sistem perbankan islam sebenarnya dapat dikemukakan dengan sederhana.operasi institusi keuangan islam terutama berdasarkan pada prinsip pls (porfitand-loss-sharing bagi untung dan rugi). prinsip bagi hasil ini dalam keuangan islam sangat dianjurkan dan merupakan solusi yang pantas dan relefan untuk mengatasi masalah alokasi dana yang terbatas, baik yang berupa dana pinjaman atau tabungan dengan maksud supaya pengelolaan dan pembiayaan bisnis secara efektif dapat tercapai. bank islam tidak membebankan bunga, melainkan mengajak partisipasi dalam bidang usaha yang didanai.para deposan juga sama-sama mendapat bagian dari keuntungan bank sesuai dengan rasio yang telah ditetapkan sebelumnya. dengan demikian ada kemitraan antara bank islam dan para deposan di satu pihak, dan antara bank para nasabah investasi sebagai pengelola sumber daya para deposan dalam berbagai usaha produktif dipihak lain.1 seiring dengan perbaikan dan reformasi perbankan nasional pasca krisis ekonomi, perbankan syariah yang merupakan bagian dari perbankan nasional mulai memasuki babak baru implementasi sistem perbankan nasional dengan segala hambatan dan perkembangan yang secara berkala terus diperbaiki sesuai dengan syariat islam. perbankan syariah era reformasi dimulai dengan disetujuinya undang-undang no. 10 tahun 1998 tentang perbankan syariah.2 kemudian disempurnakan dengan adanya undang-undang perbankan syariah nomor 21 tahun 2008. jika dihitung, pendapatan rata-rata masyarakat indonesia sama besarnya pendapatan rata-rata negara maju. hanya saja di indonesia sebagian pihak kekayaannyanya 1latifa m. algaoud dan mervyn k. lewis, perbankan syariah, prinsip, praktik, prospek, jakarta, pt. serambi ilmu semesta, 2001, hlm. 9-10 2muhammad syafi’i antonio, bank syariah: dari teori ke praktik. jakarta, gema insani press, 2001, hlm. 26 menjulang naik setinggi langit sedangkan ada pihak yang amat memprihatinkan tidak mampu memenuhi kebutuhan primer. hal semacam ini yang tidak berlaku dalam ekonomi islam, pemberdayaan masyarakat guna pengembangan sektor rill harus ditingkatkan dan peran masyarakat dalam tataran ekonomi domestik harus mendapatkan perhatian lebih dari semua pihak. ekonomi domestik adalah ekonomi kita yang sebenarnya, tidak akan ada campur tangan dari negara lain sehingga jika terjadi masalah ekonomi dengan negara lain maka tidak memberikan dampak apapun bagi negara ini. terbukti jika terjadi krisis ekonomi dunia maka perekonomian domestik menjadi perhatian dan solusi mengatasinya, sebab tidak terkena dampaknya. jadi sebaiknya ekonomi di sektor rill khususnya tataran domestik harus menjadi perhatian bersama terutama bagi pemerintah. peluang tetap terbuka dari sejumlah keunggulan yang kini ada dalam perekonomian indonesia, seperti pasar dalam negeri yang besar, peluang investasi yang masih terbuka luas, dan sejumlah produk unggulan di pasar ekspor. adanya intervensi pemerintah dalam ekonomi islam terhadap perekonomian sangat dibutuhkan, sebab negara menjadi wadah terciptanya kesejahteraan ummat manusia. dalam kepemilikan individu tidaklah bersifat mutlak, namun kepemilikan itu dibatasi oleh beberapa hal. dalam beberapa kondisi, negara mempunyai hak intervensi terhadap kepemilikan, hak untuk membatasi atau mengatur kepemilikan itu dalam kehidupan masyarakat.3 perekonomian domestik dalam pengembangannya juga dibutuhkan pihak yang memberikan kemudahan dalam permodalan sehingga pemberdayaan masyarakat dapat tercipta. dari uraian ini menjadi sangat penting bagi bank syariah untuk bisa berkontribusi dalam mengembangkan ekonomi domestik khusunya 3 al-mishri abdul sami’, pilar-pilar ekonomi islam, (penerbit pustaka pelajar 2006), hlm. 46. analisis potensi produk musyarakah terhadap pembiayaan… (trimulato) 43 bagi usaha kecil dan menengah (umkm). perlu buat desain produk yang bisa memberi jalan bagi bank syariah untuk bisa bersatu mengembangkan usaha kecil dan menenghah (umkm). saat ini bermuculan upaya bank syariah untuk bisa memmberikan pembiayaan pada sektor umkm. (arwaty, 2010). krisis yang melanda bangsa indonesia telah meluluh lantakkan segala sendi-sendi kehidupan termasuk juga sektor perbankan yang juga di pandang sebagai salah satu pemicunya, yaitu dengan disalurkannya kredit-kredit yang salah sasaran. krisis membuktikan bahwa usaha kecil menengah yang jumlah sangat banyak mampu bertahan menghadapi krisis tersebut secara mandiri. disaat perekonomian kini mulai menunjukkkan geliat untuk bangkit kembali, usaha kecil menengah nampaknya seolah kembali terlupakan, terutama lagi dengan banyak masuk dan beroperasinya usaha asing – termasuk perbankan asing pasca periode penjualan aset-aset perbankan nasional. perbankan syariah yang telah dirintis sejak tahun 1992 nampaknya kini dapat menjadi harapan baru bagi pengembangan usaha kecil menengah, khususnya dalam pengadaan modal kerja. dari peristiwa krisis yang telah melanda bangsa indonesia tersebut telah menciptakan kemiskinan bagi sebagian kalangan masyarakat kita yang sifatnya terstruktur, melalui pemberdayaan perbankan syariah ini harapan kita akan bisa menangani kemiskinan dengan menghilangkannya melalui proses trickle down effect. akibatnya kemungkinan terjadinya ketimpangan distribusi dan akses sumber daya ekonomi. karena pendekatan ini butuh biaya besar dan harus ditanggung oleh negara (mengandalkan pinjaman luar negeri). untuk mengatasi permasalahan yang telah terjadi selama ini terhadap negara kita yang selalu mengandalkan ketergantungan kepada bantuan dari luar nergeri salah satu langkah yang dianggab efektif adalah menggunakan keuangan mikro sebagai metode utama. kontribusi pendekatan ini terdiri dari diversifikasi pelaku utama pembangunan adalah masyarakat, pembiayaan pembangunan yang menggunakan sumber keuangan masyarakat sendiri serta menerapkan pendekatan pembangunan yang memiliki potensi untuk berlanjut (sustainable). beranjak dari permasalahan itu, kita sebagai subyek yang akan menentukan masa depan bangsa kita tidak akan mingkin bergantung secara terus menerus terhadap upayaupaya tersebut. kita harus berupaya mencari terobosanterobosan lain yang justru memberikan harapan yang lebih menjanjikan terhadap masa depan perekonomian kita. saat sekarang ini seiring dengan berkembangnya pola pikir masyarakat indonesia pada umumnya, telah bisa melahirkan terobosanterobosan baru dalam rangka pengembangan ekonomi bangsa, dari banyak terobosanterobosan tersebut salah satunya dapat kita amati dari segi perkembangan sektor usaha kecil dan menengah. 4 pt. bank syariah mandiri (bsm) optimis kontribusi pembiayaan segmen usaha mikro, kecil dan menengah (umkm) dapat terus dipertahankan. untuk tahun ini, perseroan mematok porsinya mencapai 75% dari total pembiayaan yang ditargetkan tumbuh 25% menjadi rp55,96 triliun. demikian porsi umkm diharapkan mencapai rp42 triliun. “bsm sengaja mengejar yang ritel baik dana dan pembiayaan. jadi kami agak puasa untuk yang korporasi, institusi yang besar-besar dananya,” ujar direktur utama bsm yuslam fauzi, saat ditemui wartawan di kantor pusat bsm, jakarta, belum lama ini. perseroan mencatat per akhir 2012, kucuran pembiayaan umkm mencapai rp32,79 triliun, atau sebesar 73,3% dari total pembiayaan sebesar rp44,76 triliun. pada akhir 2011, posisi pembiayaan umkm sebesar rp26,78 triliun, sebesar 72,9% dari total pembiayaan rp36,73 triliun. pertumbuhan 4 dikutip dari http://www.kompasiana.com/sangsurya/peran-banksyariah-dalam-mengembangan-usaha-kecilmenengah_5517d225a333114907b6616c pada tanggal 19 pebruari 2016 44 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 1, april 2017: 41-51 pembiayaan umkm sendiri sebesar 22,45% dalam setahunan, yang juga dikontribusi pembiayaan di segmen mikro. “kami pd (percaya diri) masuk ke mikro. pertama it sekarang, sehingga kami akan lebih gesit dan efisien. kedua, bank mandiri juga sudah mulai kembangkan mikronya. sebagai bank syariah, lanjutnya, bsm berusaha menjalankan nilainilai syariah yang salah satunya adalah dengan memberikan manfaat sebesar-besarnya bagi lingkungan dan masyarakat. kenyataan mayoritas usaha di tanah air adalah usaha mikro dan kecil, lanjutnya, maka perseroan menetapkan untuk masuk ke segmen ini. 5 beberapa tahun ini sejumlah bank berkonsep ekonomi islam ini memiliki program memberi pembiayaan terhadap umkm. tujuannya agar para pelaku umkm bisa semakin berkembang dan terus berkontribusi bagi percepatan pembangunan nasional. salah satu produk perbankan syariah yang menyentuh para pelaku umkm adalah kredit usaha rakyat (kur). hampir semua bank konvensional yang memiliki produk syariah bergerak di produk ini, seperti beberapa di antaranya kredit mikro bri syariah, kur syariah mandiri, kur bni syariah, kur bank jatim syariah, dan kur bank nagari syariah. bahkan, tahun ini kur syariah mandiri menyalurkan dana sebesar rp1,7 triliun. angka ini naik dua kali lipat dibandingkan 2012, yang hanya rp750 miliar. bank-bank syariah lain juga melakukan hal ini dalam rangka membantu pelaku umkm yang selama ini merasa kesulitan untuk mengakses permodalan ke bank-bank besar. pasalnya, selama ini masih ada saja perbankan besar yang enggan mengeluarkan kredit untuk usaha kecil dan baru karena dinilai belum jelas prospeknya. selain bertujuan membantu memberi akses permodalan kepada umkm, di tubuh perbankan syariah, optimalisasi terhadap 5 dikutip dari http://www.syariahmandiri.co.id/2013/04/bsm-patok-porsipembiayaan-umkm-jadi-75/, pada tanggal 19 pebruari 2016 pembiayaan di sektor mikro menjadi salah satu potensi bisnis yang baik untuk masa depan. konsultan ekonomi syariah sekaligus managing director at rasyidin consulting wiku mengatakan, dalam beberapa tahun ini perbankan syariah terus gencar menyalurkan dana bagi para pelaku umkm (suryomurti, 2015). pada satu sisi pencapai target pangsa pasar 5% memang belum tercapai (hanya 4,8%), tapi di sektor pembiayaan umkm kinerja bankbank syariah mulai maksimal. di indonesia, ada sekitar 52 juta umkm yang eksis hingga hari ini. sayangnya, keberadaan mereka belum banyak terakomodasi permodalan oleh bankbank besar. sebagian perbankan besar masih khawatir terhadap keberlanjutan umkm tersebut. sementara itu, kata wiku, dalam hal ini perbankan syariah lebih mengakomodasi mereka. pasalnya, sistem perbankan syariah lebih minimalis tingkat pengaruhnya terhadap gejolak ekonomi.6 bank syariah punya produk bagi hasil yang membedakannya dengan bank konvensional, yaitu produk pembiayaan mudharabah dan musyarakah. bank syariah lebih dikenal dengan sistem bagi hasil yang mempunyai berbagai produk yang menggunakan akad mudharabah dan musyarakah, dianggap lebih adil bagi semua pihak. namun saat ini sepertinya sudah mulai terjadi pergeseran di bank syariah, bank syariah lebih senang dan lebih mengunggulkan produk pembiayaan dengan akad murabahah, yang memberikan hasil yang pasti. saat ini produk pembiayaan dengan konsep bagi hasil baik mudharabah maupun musyarakah belum menjadi produk yang dominan. dapat dilihat kontribusi produk pembiayaan di bank syariah sebagai berikut. 6 dikutip dari http://www.bankmuamalat.co.id/berita/detail/bank-syariahlebih-melirik-umkm#.vscvse-friv pada tanggal 19 pebruari 2016 45 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 1, april 2017: 41-51 tabel 1. pembiayaan di bank syariah desember 20167 no. jenis pembiayaan besar pembiayaan* kontribusi (%) 1 mudharabah 7.577 4,49 2 musyarakah 50.546 29,95 3 murabahah 105.112 62,29 4 ijarah 1.636 0,97 5 qard 3.883 2,30 6 total 168.754 100 sumber: ojk, statistik perbankan syariah desember 2016 *dalam milyar rupiah dari data diatas menunjukkan komposisi besar pembiayaan yang diberikan oleh bank syariah. pembiayaan terbesar porsinya adalah pembiayaan dengan prinsip jual beli murabahah yaitu sebesar 105.112.000.000.000 atau sebesar 62,29% dari total pembiayaan. adapun pembiayaan dengan prinsip bagi hasil yaitu mudharabah dan musyarakah jika digabungkan hanya meberikan kontribusi 34,44% atau sebesar 58.123.000.000.000. itu artinya penggunaan produk dengan konsep bagi hasil masih jauh tertinggal dengan akad jualbeli murabahah. padahal bank syariah dikenal dengan bank bagi hasil bukan bank jual beli. akad mudharbah dan musyarakah dengan konsep bagi hasil sebernya akan jauh lebih dengan pembiayaan khususnya untuk kegiatan yang produktif khususnya pada sektor riil umkm. jika mudharabah modal sepenuhnya dari bank syariah, maka berbeda dengan musyarakah yang masing-masing pihak harus menyertakan modalnya untuk suatu usaha. maka dari resiko akad musyarakah terjadi sharing risiko antara bank syariah dengan nasabah. kemudian akad musyarakah akan lebih memudahkan para pelaku usaha yang sudah punya modal dan ingin mengembangkan 7 otoritas jasa keuangan. statistik perbankan syariah desember 2016., hal 45 usahanya. maka dengan pembiayaan pada sektor riil umkm posri pembiayaan musyarakah yang baru 29,95% dapat ditingkatkan. berdasarkan latar belakang yang telah dipaparkan dan beberapa ulasan yang ada terkait dengan produk pembiayaan yang ada di bank syariah sebagai instrumen yang digunakan dalam produk penyaluran dana, maka dibutuhkan inovasi dalam membuat desain untuk meningkatkan porsi pembiayaan musyarakah di bank syariah dalam melakukan pembiayaan bagi umkm. hal ini dengan tujuan agar memacu minat pemilik umkm untuk memilih produk pembiayaan musyarakah di lembaga keuangan syariah, khususnya di perbankan syariah. terdapat dua permasalahan utama yang masih dihadapi oleh industri perbankan syariah pada produk penyaluran dana antara lain: 1. produk penyaluran dana bank syariah, hampir menyerupai produk bank konvensional, hanya berbeda pada ketentuan sesuai syariah belum terlihat produk yang berbeda secara mencolok. 2. produk pembiayaan dengan akad bagi hasil baik mudharabah dan musyarakah di bank syariah belum maksimal dalam menyalurkan dana kepada masyarakat, kecenderungan bank syariah masih menggunakan pembiayaan murabahah, padahal akad yang identik dengan bank syariah adalah akad pembiayaan dengan skema bagi hasil. sehingga dibutuhkan upaya agar potensi akad pembiayaan musyarakah bisa lebih digunakan untuk pembiayaan sektor rill khususnya untuk umkm. usaha mikro merupakan usaha yang dikelola oleh individu atau keluarga atau beberapa orang yang belum memiliki izin usaha secara lengkap. 8 dalam uu no. 20 tahun 2008 tentang umkm bahwa unit usaha mikro adalah usaha produktif yang dimiliki orang per orang 8 nizarul alim, pembiayaan syariah untuk usaha mikro dan kecil: studi kasus dan solusi, cet. i (surabaya: pt. bina ilmu, 2009), hlm. 14 46 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 1, april 2017: 41-51 dan/atau badan usaha perorangan yang memenuhi kriteria usaha mikro sebagaimana yang diatur dalam udang-undang (uu no. 20 tahun 2008). 9 sedangkan menurut musa hubeis, usaha kecil yang benar-benar kecil dan mikro dapat dikelompokkan atas pengertian: 1) usaha kecil mandiri, yaitu tanpa menggunakan tenaga kerja lain; 2) usaha kecil yang menggunakan tenaga kerja anggota keluarga sendiri; dan 3) usaha kecil yang memiliki tenaga kerja upahan yang tetap. usaha kecil dengan kategori yang dimaksud adalah yang sering dipandang sebagai usaha yang banyak menghadapi kesulitan, terutama yang terkait dengan lemahnya kemampuan manejerial, teknologi, dan permodalan yang terbatas, sdm, pemasaran, dan mutu produk. faktor eksternal dalam usaha kecil merupakan hambatan yang sulit diatasi, yaitu struktur pasar yang kurang sehat dan berkembangnya perusahaanperusahaan asing yang menghasilkan produk sejenis untuk segmen pasar yang sama. 10 akad musyarakah di bank syariah musyarakah secara etimologi berasal dari bahasa arab yang diambil dari kata syaraka yang bermakna bersekutu, menyetujui, sedangkan menurut istilah, musyarakah adalah akad kerjasama antara dua pihak atau lebih untuk suatu usaha tertentu dimana masingmasing pihak memberikan kontribusi dana (amal/expertise) dengan kesepakatan bahwa keuntungan dan resiko akan ditanggung bersama sesuai dengan kesepakatan.11 menurut dewan syariah nasional, musyarakah yaitu pembiayaan berdasarkan akad kerja sama antara dua pihak atau lebih suatu usaha tertentu, dimana masing-masing pihak memberikan kontribusi dana dengan ketentuan bahwa keuntungan dan resiko akan ditanggung 9 pasal 1 undang-undang no. 20 tahun 2008 tentang usaha mikro, kecil, dan menengah. 10 musa hubeis, prospek usaha kecil dalam wadah inkubator bisnis, cet.i (bogor: galia indonesia, 2009) hlm. 18. 11 muhammad syafi’i antonio. bank syariah......, hal. 90 bersama sesuai dengan kesepakatan.12 musyarakah adalah produk finansial syariah yang berbasis kemitraan sebagaimana halnya mudharabah. namun kedua produk finansial tersebut memiliki ciri-ciri dan syarat-syarat yang berbeda. istilah lain yang digunakan untuk musyarakah adalah sharikah atau syirkah. musyarakah diterjemahkan dalam bahasa inggris dengan partnership (kemitraan). istilah tersebut tidak spesifik karena mudharabah juga suatu partnership (kemitraan). lembaga-lembaga keuangan islam menerjemahkannya dengan istilah “participation financing” agar dapat lebih menggarisbawahi salah satu aspek dari musyarakah yang akan dijelaskan selanjutnya. musyarakah dapat diterjemahkan kedalam bahasa indonesia dengan “kemitraan para pemodal” atau “perkongsian para pemodal”.13 pembiayaan musyarakah adalah pembiayaan berupa akad kerjasama antara pihak bus/uus/bprs dengan pihak nasabah berupa penyatuan modal oleh masing-masing pihak untuk melaksanakan usaha atau proyek tertentu dan/atau upaya untuk memiliki aset tertentu yang bertujuan untuk memperoleh sejumlah keuntungan dengan ketentuan bahwa keuntungan (profit) dan kerugian (loss) akan ditanggung bersama.14 keuntungan dibagi berdasarkan kesepakatan atau porsi modal sementara kerugian ditanggung hanya sebesar porsi modal masing-masing. perjanjian dengan akad musyarakah harus memenuhi rukun sebagai berikut:15 1. pihak yang berakad adalah bank dan nasabah dimana keduanya sebagai pemilik modal (shahibul maal) sedangkan nasabah 12 fathurrahman djamil, penerapan hukum perjanjian dalam transaksi di lembaga keuangan syariah, (jakarta: sinar grafika, 2013), hal. 165. 13 sutan remy sjahdeini. perbankan syariah produkproduk dan aspek-aspek hukumnya. jakarta: kencana. 2014., hal 329 14 divisi pengembangan produk dan edukasi departemen perbankan syariah otoritas jasa keuangan. 2016. standar produk perbankan syariahmusyarakah dan musyarakah mutanaqishah., hal. 41. 15. ibid. analisis potensi produk musyarakah terhadap pembiayaan… (trimulato) 47 selain sebagai pemilik modal juga sebagai pelaksana (musyarik). 2. modal, yakni masing-masing pihak menyertakan modal dengan tujuan untuk membeli suatu aset atau melaksanakan usaha/proyek tertentu. 3. obyek akad, obyek akad dapat berupa aset, proyek atau usaha yang akan menghasilkan keuntungan bagi para pihak. 4. ijab qabul, yaitu pernyataan penawaran (ijab) dan penerimaan (qabul) yang dinyatakan oleh para pihak terkait untuk menunjuk-kan kehendak masing-masing dalam mengadakan perjanjian (akad). 5. nisbah bagi hasil; pembagian porsi keuntungan yang akan diperoleh para pihak dalam bentuk%tase bukan jumlah uang yang tetap. 6. pengikatan perjanjian pembiayaan musyarakah antara bus/uus/bprs dan nasabah harus dituangkan secara tertulis yang dapat dilakukan secara di bawah tangan atau di bawah legalilasi secara notariil. ibn rusyd mengartikan syirkah atau musyarakah itu sebagai akad kerjasama antara dua pihak atau lebih untuk suatu usaha tertentu dimana setiap pihak memberikan kontribusi dana dengan kesepakatan bahwa keuntungan dan risiko akan ditanggung bersama sesuai dengan kesepakatan. syirkah ini disepakati oleh kalangan fuqaha akan kebolehannya selagi memenuhi rukunnya, yaitu ijab dan qabul, untuk memperjelaskan bentuk transaksinya.16 akad musyarakah digunakan oleh bank untuk memfasilitasi pemenuhan sebagian kebutuhan permodalan nasabah guna menjalankan usaha atau proyek yang disepakati. nasabah bertindak sebagai pengelola usaha dan bank sebagai mitra dapat sebagai pengelola usaha sesuai dengan kesepakatan. pembagian keuntungan dari 16 syukri iska. sistem perbankan syariah di indonesia dalam perspektif fikih ekonomi. yogyakarta: fajar media press. 2012., hal 198 pemakaian dana dinyatakan dalam bentuk nisbah. nisbah bagi hasil yang disepakati tidak dapat diubah sepanjang jangka waktu investasi kecuali atas dasar kesepakatan para pihak. nisbah bagi hasil dapat ditetapkan secara berjenjang (tiering) yang besarnya berbeda-beda berdasarkan kesepakatan. pembagian keuntungan dapat dilakukan dengan cara bagi untung atau rugi (profit and loss sharing) atau bagi pendapatan (revenue sharing). pembagian keuntungan berdasarkan hasil usaha sesuai dengan laporan keuangan nasabah. dalam hal kerugian bank dan nasabah memegang kerugian secara proporsional sesuai modal masing-masing. jika terjadi kerugian karena kecurangan, kelalaian atau menyalahi perjanjian maka kerugian tersebut ditanggung oleh pihak yang melakukan kecurangan tersebut.17 metode penelitian jenis penelitian yang digunakan dalam tulisan ini adalah dengan menggunakan studi pustaka yang diperoleh dari beberapa sumber. penelitian ini bersifat deskriptif kualitatif yang artinya menggambarkan suatu subyek penelitian. dalam hal ini adalah bentuk produk pembiayaan dengan akad musyarakah di bank syariah. kemudian tentang potensi pengembangan produk pembiayaan musyarakah di bank syariah bagi sektor riil khususnya bagi umkm. jenis data jenis data yang digunakan dalam tulisan ini adalah data kualitatif yang bersumber dari data primer dan data sekunder. data primer berupa sumber data yang langsung memberikan data kepada peneliti atau data yang diperoleh langsung dari lapangan (objek penelitian), sedangkan data sekunder adalah sumber data yang tidak langsung memberikan data kepada pengumpul data (peneliti) atau data yang diambil peneliti sebagai pendukung 17 muhamad. manajemen keuangan syariah analisis fiqih dan keuangan. yogyakarta: tp, 2013., hal 252-253 48 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 1, april 2017: 41-51 atas penelitian secara ilmiah yaitu dengan melakukan studi pustaka (penelusuran melalui buku, artikel, jurnal, majalah, internet dan sumber lainnya). 18 data-data yang digunakan penulis antara lain: 1. teori-teori yang peneliti ambil dari berbagai literatur. 2. pengambilan data-data dari hasil yang telah tersaji dari suatu lembaga. teknik pengumpulan data teknik pengumpulan data yang diperlukan dalam tulisan ini adalah dengan menggunakan beberapa metode yaitu: 1. studi kepustakaan metode ini digunakan untuk menggali dasardasar teori yang terkait produk pembiayaan dengan akad musyarakah di bank syariah dan terkait dengan usaha kecil dan menengah (umkm). 2. pengamatan setiap data yang didapatkan dari berbagai sumber diamati dan dianalisa terkait dengan kondisi produk pembiayaan musyarakah di bank syariah. analisis data metode analisis data yang digunakan adalah dengan menggunakan pendekatan kualitatif deskriptif yaitu dengan cara memaparkan metode teori produk pembiayaan dengan akad musyarakah di bank syariah, melalui potensi pengembangan akad pembiayaan musyarakah dalam memberikan pembiayaan bagi sektor riil khususnya umkm. kemudian bagaimana penerapannya di bank syariah sebagi produk yang bisa disalurkan bagi usaha masyarakat. penelitian kualitatif adalah prosedur penelitian yang menghasilkan data deskriptif berupa kata-kata tertulis atau lisan dari orangorang dan keadaan yang diamati. penelitian 18 farizal.pengembangan kompetensi sdm perbankan syariah melalui corporate university. forum riset perbankan syariah ii. 2010. yogyakarta. hal 66 kualitatif adalah metode penelitian yang digunakan untuk meneliti pada kondisi objek yang alamiah, (sebagai lawannya adalah eksprimen) dimana peneliti adalah sebagai instrument kunci, teknik pengumpulan data dilakukan secara trianggulasi (gabungan), analisa data bersifat induktif dan hasil dari penelitian kualitatif lebih bersifat makna daripada generalisasi. 19 hasil dan pembahasan perkembangan pembiayaan akad musyarakah di bank syariah tabel 3. akad musyarakah di bank syariah20 no. periode pembiayaan pertumbuhan 1 tahun 2014 38.501 2 tahun 2015 44.419 15,37% 3 tahun 2016 50.546 13,79% 4 total 133.466 29,16% sumber: ojk, statistik perbankan syariah 2016 *dalam miliar rupiah dari data diatas menunjukkan tentang perkembangan/ pertumbuhan penggunaan akad musyarakah pada produk pembiayaan di bank syariah pada periode tahun 2014 sampai dengan desember 2016. data diatas menunjukkan bahwa pada akhir tahun 2016 pertumbuhan akad musyarakah mengalami penurunan walaupun secara nominal dan besaran meningkat. pada tahun 2015 pertumbuhan musyarakah mencapai 15,37%, dengan besaran pembiayaan 50.546.000.000.000. sedangkan diakhir tahun 2016 pertumbuhannya hanya 13,79%. hal ini perlu perhatian agar bisa memaksimalkan penggunaan akad musyarakah di bank syariah. akad musyarkah menggunakan konsep bagi hasil yang menjadi identitas bank syariah. pertumbuhan kredit usaha mikro, kecil, dan menengah (umkm) 19 ibid, hal 67 20 otoritas jasa keuangan. statistik..... hal. 45 analisis potensi produk musyarakah terhadap pembiayaan… (trimulato) 49 tabel 4. kredit usaha mikro, kecil, dan menengah umkm21 no skala usaha tahun 2014 tahun 2015 pertumbuhan (%) 1 mikro 140.272 164.869 17,53 2 kecil 201.976 215.925 4,23 3 menengah 329.473 359.008 8,96 4 total 671.721 739.802 10,14 sumber: data badan pusat statistik *dalam miliar rupiah data diatas menunjukkan pertumbahan dari kegiatan kredit yang dikucurkan kepada sektor umkm pada periode tahun 2014 sampai tahun 2015. data tersebut menunjukkan dari tiga jenis usaha pertumbuhannya tidak melebihi 20%, skala mikro mengalami pertumbuhan yang paling besar 17,53%, dengan kucuran kredit sebesar 215.925.000.000 pada tahun 2015. adapun kredit terkecil diberikan kepada skala kecil yaitu sebesar hanya 4,23%. hal ini menunjukkan perlu perhatian semua pihak untuk terus memberikan kredit pada sektor umkm agar bisa terus tumbuh. mengingat sektor umkm adalah sektor yang tahan akan badai krisis. potensi pengembangan produk pembiayaan musyarakah di bank syariah terhadap sektor riil umkm ukm dalam memiliki peranan besar dalam meningkatkan pertumbuhan perekonomian indonesia karena dengan banyaknya jumlah penduduk indonesia, ukm berperan untuk menambah lapangan pekerjaan. ukm dapat menyerap sebesar 97% tenaga kerja indonesia, terutama dalam mikro ekonomi yang mencapai hampir 95% tenaga kerja. dari pemaparan di atas mengenai pertumbuhan perekonomian indonesia tidak disebutkan bahwa ukm memiliki kontribusi dalam pdb yang mencapai 4.303 triliun/tahun. selain itu, untuk membangun perekonomian suatu negara, 21 dikutip dari https://www.bps.go.id/index.php/linktabelstatis/1876, pada tanggal 3 februari 2017 dibutuhkan sdm yang memiliki jiwa-jiwa entrepreneur untuk mengembangkan kewirausahaan suatu negara. hal tersebut dilakukan karena menurut joseph a. schumpeter, perekonomian suatu negara dapat berkembang dengan adanya suatu produk inovasi yang dapat dihasilkan melalui kewirausahaan. di indonesia sendiri usaha mikro jumlahnya mencapai 98,82% dan usaha kecil jumlahnya hanya 1,09%. hal tersebut menandakan masih banyaknya usaha-usaha yang tergolong mikro dan tidak mengalami perkembangan berarti karena tidak adanya kenaikan level dari mikro ke kecil, kecil ke menengah, dan seterusnya.22 melihat data perkembangan kredit umkm yang terus meningkat setiap waktu. umkm lebih kokoh dalam memberi kontribusi dalam menggerakkan perekonomian suatu negara. sehingga umkm ini memerlukan dukungan dalam kegiatannya. salah satu lembaga yang mampu menopang perkembangan umkm adalah bank syariah. bank syariah memiliki produk pembiayaan dengan menggunakan akad musyarakah dengan sistem bagi hasil, dianggap sangat cocok dalam membantu umkm dalam hal permodalan (amah, 2013). akad pembiayaa musyarakah di bank syariah belum mendominasi dalam pembiayaan, sedangkan umkm terus mengalami perkembangan sehingga membutuhkan produk yang tepat. karakter pembiayaan musyarakah sangat tepat bagi umkm yang terus berkembang. sehingga potensi pengembangan produk pembiayaan musyarakah pada umkm masih sangat besar dan peluang masih terbuka luas. produk pembiayaan musyarakah adalah bentuk pembiayaan dalam bentuk penyertaan modal, jadi masing-masig pihak harus menyertakan dananya untuk usaha. umkm 22 dikutip dari http://www.kompasiana.com/anindyayukiran/ukm-danpertumbuhan-perekonomian-indonesia-sejalankah-denganpersiapan-dalam-menghadapi-afta2015_54f7bc5aa33311191c8b49ac pada tanggal 26 februari 2016 50 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 1, april 2017: 41-51 yang telah berkembang dan belum memiliki permodalan yang besar dapat memanfaatkan produk pembiayaan musyarakah di bank syariah. simpulan perkembangan pembiayaan dengan akad musyarakah di bank syariah mengalami penurunan di tahun 2016. pada periode tahun 2014 sampai 2015 pertumbuhan akad musyarakah di bank syariah mencapai 15,37%. sedangkan pada periode tahun 2015 sampai tahun 2016 sebesar 13,79%. walaupun secara nominal mengalami pertumbuhan. kredit umkm terus mengalami pertumbuhan pada periode tahun 2014 sampai tahun 2015. jenis usaha yang mendapatkan kucuran kredit yang paling tumbuh adalah jenis usaha mikro yaitu sebesar 17,53%. sedangkan yang mengalami pertumbuhan yang paling kecil pada periode yang sama adalah skala usaha kecil. potensi perkembangan akad pembiayaan musyarakah masih sangat besar dengan melihat perkembangan kredit umkm yang secara terus menerus, kemudian melihat belum maksimalnya pembiayaan dengan akad musyarakah di bank syariah. akad pembiayaan musyarakah membutuhkan wadah yang tepat, dan umkm membutuhkan modal/ pembiayaan agar bisa lebih berkembang. sehingga pembiayaan dengan akad musyarakah menjadi lebih tepat dalam memberikan pembiayaan umkm dengan karakter yang tepat. disamping itu menjadikan jati diri bank syariah sebagai bank bagi hasil yang keberadaan dibutuhkan masyarakat. daftar pustaka algaoud, l. m. dan mervyn k. l. (2001). perbankan syariah, prinsip, praktik, prospek, jakarta, pt. serambi ilmu semesta. antonio, m. s. (2001). bank syariah: dari teori ke praktik.,jakarta, gema insani press. abdul, a. s. (2006). pilar-pilar ekonomi islam. penerbit pustaka pelajar. arwaty, d. (2010). peran strategis ekonomi berbasis syariah dalam pemberdayaan ekonomi sektor usaha mikro, kecil, dan menengah (umkm), ditinjau dari penerapan akuntasi syariah dan akuntansi umkm. jurnal ekono-insentif, vol 4, no 1. bandung: koordinasi perguruan tinggi swasta wilayah iv jawa barat dan banten. amah, n. (2013). bank syariah dan umkm dalam menggerakkan roda perekonomian indonesia: suatu kajian literatur, jurnal assets: jurnal akuntansi dan pendidikan, vol 2, no 1. madiun: program studi pendidikan akuntansi, fpips, ikip pgri madiun. alim, n. (2009). pembiayaan syariah untuk usaha mikro dan kecil: studi kasus dan solusi, cet. i. surabaya: pt. bina ilmu. divisi pengembangan produk dan edukasi departemen perbankan syariah otoritas jasa keuangan. (2016). standar produk perbankan syariahmusyarakah dan musyarakah mutanaqishah djamil, f. (2013). penerapan hukum perjanjian dalam transaksi di lembaga keuangan syariah. jakarta: sinar grafika. farizal. 2010. pengembangan kompetensi sdm perbankan syariah melalui corporate university. yogyakarta: forum riset perbankan syariah ii. hubeis, m. (2009). prospek usaha kecil dalam wadah inkubator bisnis, cet.i. bogor: galia indonesia. iska, s. (2012). sistem perbankan syariah di indonesia dalam perspektif fikih ekonomi. yogyakarta: fajar media press. kara, m. (2013). kontribusi pembiayaan perbankan syariah terhadap pengembangan usaha mikro, kecil, dan menengah. jurnal asysyir’ah jurnal ilmu syariah dan hukum vol. 47. no 1. yogyakarta: fakultas syariah dan hukum universitas islam negeri sunan kalijaga. analisis potensi produk musyarakah terhadap pembiayaan… (trimulato) 51 muhamad. (2013). manajemen keuangan syariah analisis fiqih dan keuangan. yogyakarta: tp. mth, a. (2004). aplikasi musyarakah dalam perbankan islam. jurnal hukum islam almawarid. edisi xi. yogyakarta: fakultas ilmu agama islam uii. munrokhim, m., dkk. (2008). ekonomi islam. jakarta: penerbit rajawali pers. otoritas jasa keuangan. statistik perbankan syariah desember 2016. undang-undang no. 20 tahun 2008 tentang usaha mikro, kecil, dan menengah. undang-undang no. 21 tahun 2008. tentang perbankan syariah remy, s. s. (2014). perbankan syariah produkproduk dan aspek-aspek hukumnya. jakarta: kencana. sahruddin. (2006). pelaksanaan pembiayaan proyek dengan prindip musyarakah pada perbankan syariah di nusa tenggara barat. tesis program magister hukum universitas diponegoro. semarang. qardhawi, y. (1997). norma dan etika ekonomi islam. penerbit gema insani press. http://www.kompasiana.com/sangsurya/peran-banksyariah-dalam-mengembangan-usahakecilmenengah_5517d225a333114907b6616 c. diunduh pada tanggal 19 februari 2016. http://www.syariahmandiri.co.id/2013/04/bsmpatok-porsi-pembiayaan-umkm-jadi-75/. diunduh pada tanggal 19 februari 2016. http://www.bankmuamalat.co.id/berita/detail/banksyariah-lebih-melirik-umkm#.vscvsefriv. diunduh pada tanggal 19 februari 2016. image (2).jpg image (3).jpg image (4).jpg image (5).jpg image (6).jpg image (7).jpg image (8).jpg image (9).jpg image (10).jpg image (11).jpg image (12).jpg image (13).jpg image (14).jpg image (15).jpg image (16).jpg jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 1, april 2016, hlm. 77-88 doi: 10.18196/jesp.17.1.3777 kajian konsep rasional dan maslahah dalam pengembangan perbankan syariah: studi perbandingan antara indonesia dan malaysia dimas bagus wiranatakusuma1, masyhudi muqorobin2, imamudin yuliadi3 1dosen departemen ilmu ekonomi, universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta 2direktur international program for islamic economics and finance (ipief), departemen ilmu ekonomi, universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta, indonesia 3ketua program studi ilmu ekonomi, departemen ilmu ekonomi, universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta, indonesia email korespondensi: dimas_kusuma@umy.ac.id naskah diterima: januari 2016; disetujui: april 2016 abstract: the main idea about preference and utility in islamic perspective is to describe consumer behavior in accordance with the concept of maslahah. this essay tries to replicate the concept of maslahah by dividing into good deeds (g) and bad deeds (b) with certain limits of ability (a). the hicksian and marshallian demand function is used to recover the problem by taking the comparison of islamic banking objects between indonesia and malaysia. this paper uses several selected variables to measure the function of masahah (m) as well as the ability (a). empirically, the variables used to measure the function of masahah are savings, financing, and yield rate. in addition, the cobb-douglas (cd) utility function is used to describe the maslahah model. the study results show that indonesia has a bigger problem compared to malaysia based on its shariah banking practices. however, more business has to be done by the sharia bank in indonesia to maintain the maslahah level than in malaysia because maslahah is seen as a manifestation of good effort (eg). keywords: sharia banking, maslahah, cobb-douglas function, indonesia, and malaysia. jel classification: c61, d11, z120. abstrak: gagasan utama tentang preferensi dan utilitas dalam perspektif islam adalah untuk menggambarkan perilaku konsumen sesuai dengan konsep maslahah. tulisan ini pada dasarnya mencoba untuk mengkerangkakan konsep maslahah dengan membagi ke dalam perbuatan baik (g) dan perbuatan buruk (b) dengan batas kemampuan tertentu (a). fungsi permintaan hicksian dan marshallian digunakan untuk mengkerangkakan maslahah dengan mengambil perbandingan objek perbankan syariah antara indonesia dan malaysia. tulisan ini menggunakan beberapa variabel terpilih untuk mengukur fungsi maslahah (m) serta kemampuan (a). secara empiris, variabel yang digunakan untuk mengukur fungsi maslahah yaitu simpanan, pembiayaan, dan tingkat imbal hasil. selain itu, fungsi utilitas cobb-douglas (cd) digunakan untuk menjelaskan model maslahah. hasil kajian menunjukkan bahwa indonesia memiliki maslahah lebih besar dibandingkan dengan malaysia berdasarkan praktik perbankan syariahnya. namun, lebih banyak usaha yang harus dilakukan oleh bank syariah di indonesia untuk mempertahankan tingkat maslahah dibandingkan di malaysia karena maslahah dipandang sebagai manifestasi dari usaha baik (eg). kata kunci: perbankan syariah, maslahah, fungsi cobb-douglas, indonesia, and malaysia. klasifikasi jel: c61, d11, z120. 78 kajian konsep maslahah dalam pengembangan … (wiranatakusuma, muqorobin, yuliadi) pendahuluan menurut kamus oxford, rasionalitas didefinisikan sebagai segala sesuatu yang didasarkan pada atau sesuai dengan alasan atau logika, mampu berpikir bijaksana atau logis serta memiliki kapasitas untuk berargumen. dalam konteks ekonomi, menurut menestrel (2001), bahwa antara rasionalitas berekonomi dan perilaku etik berada pada arah yang berlawanan. hal ini karena menurutnya berekonomi memerlukan pengorbanan, dan tidak terlalu peka terhadap etika yang ada agar tetap bisa mencapai keuntungan yang diharapkan. berdasarkan tabel 1, perilaku yang mempertentangkan antara perilaku ekonomi dan etika, merupakan interpretasi dari perspektif ekonomi konvensional. perspektif ini setuju bahwa perilaku konvensional akan mewujudkan tereduksinya ketegangan antara etika dan kepentingan ekonomi, yang kemudian mengakibatkan rasionalitas ekonomi. dengan kata lain, rationalitas dibentuk setelah menghilangkan konflik antara kepentingan ekonomi dan etika, yang sebenarnya bisa diseleraskan. tabel 1. reduksional rasional yang tidak rasional dalam sistem konvensional karakteristik pernyataan yang setara profit selalu etis perilaku yang tidak etis adalah tidak pernah membayar etika adalah kebutuhan keuntungan selalu tidak etis perilaku yang tidak etis selalu menguntungkan perilaku berbiaya mahal selalu etis etika selalu menguntungkan perilaku berbiaya mahal tidak selalu etis sumber: menestrel (2001) namun demikian, tidak seperti mainstream ekonomi, ekonomi islam memposisikan rasionalitas berdasarkan sudut pandang islam terhadap dunia (islamic worldview) pandangan ini pada dasarnya menempatkan paradigma tauhid (tawhidic paradigm) sebagai sumber kepercayaan dan rasionalitas. secara detail, konsep islam mengenai rasionalitas dibahas oleh ahmad (1992), "tidak dapat disangkal, baik konsistensi dari kebenaran dan dalil atau kepentingan pribadi, sebagai salah satu faktor penentu utama perilaku manusia, tetapi merupakan hambatan bagi sebuah kepentingan pribadi untuk menghubungkannya dengan tanggung jawab individu dan sosial serta moralitas secara umum". secara jelas, perbedaan rasionalitas antara dua perspektif dapat dilihat pada tabel 2. tabel 2. elemen rasionalitas dalam perspektif islam dan konvensional unsur-unsur rasionalitas konvensional islam wordview sekuler, menghilangkan setiap nilainilai agama dan moral kepercayaan pada hari perhitungan kepentingan pribadi memaksimalkan kepentingan pribadi tanpa batas menyadari kepentingan pribadi dan batasan terhadapnya berdasarkan syariah sumber: ramli dan mirza (2007) konsep rasionalitas dalam perspektif islam kemudian diperluas ruang lingkupnya ke arah pencapaian konsep maslahah. secara harfiah, kata maslahah didefinisikan oleh al-shatibi (d.790) sebagai "semua hal yang mempromosikan upaya manusia mencari nafkah, keberlangsungan kehidupan manusia dan kelayakan akan hal yang terkait dengan aspek fisik dan kualitas 79 kajian konsep maslahah dalam pengembangan … (wiranatakusuma, muqorobin, yuliadi) intelektualnya" (al-shatibi, 1990). pada dasarnya, konsep maslahah memiliki tujuan untuk menjaga dan meningkatkan tingkat kesejahteraan masyarakat melalui penafsiran syariah, termasuk pencapaian dari tujuan syariah itu sendiri (maqasid al-syariah), yaitu mendidik sikap individul, menegakkan keadilan, dan meningkatkan kesejahteraan. dalam prakteknya saat ini, penerapan maslahah dapat ditelusuri melalui praktik perbankan syariah, yang ditunjukan oleh perkembangan dari sisi pembiayaan dan simpanan. negara malaysia dan indonesia adalah negara yang sangat menarik untuk dikaji karena praktek-praktek perbankan syariah terutama dari sisi aset tumbuh pesat selama lebih dari dua puluh tahun terakhir. menurut laporan bank indonesia per oktober 2012, akumulasi aset bank syariah tumbuh luar biasa menjadi sekitar 178.6 triliun rupiah atau 4,4 % dari keseluruhan aset dalam sistem perbankan. jumlah ini akan terus meningkat karena melihat ukuran dan potensi pasar yang masih luas dan kepadatan penduduk muslim terbesar di dunia. aspirasi mengenai optimisme ini secara terbuka dinyatakan dan ditegaskan kembali oleh gubernur bank sentral indonesia yang berpendapat "perbankan syariah telah tumbuh positif pada tahun 2012 dan akan tetap terus positif di tahun 2013". sementara itu, dalam kasus malaysia, menurut laporan ekonomi tahun 2012/2013 oleh departemen keuangan, bisnis perbankan syariah dinyatakan terus berkembang di tujuh bulan pertama tahun 2012 dengan total aset meningkat 20,6% menjadi rm 469,5 miliar, sekitar 24,2% berdasarkan akumulasi aset. pada tahun 2013, pemerintah malaysia terus berkomitmen untuk meningkatkan kinerja perbankan dengan menyediakan kerangka hukum yang baru dalam operasionalisasi perbankan dan takaful islam. itu mungkin menyiratkan sebuah komitmen bahwa praktik perbankan islam memerlukan pengakuan hukum mengenai persyaratan kontrak yang sesuai dengan syariah. oleh karena itu, pengembangan perbankan syariah di kedua negara mendapatkan perhatian yang sangat besar dan kajian luar biasa analisis mengenai sudah sejauh mana praktik perbankan syariah memenuhi dan memuaskan kebutuhan umat secara keseluruhan. sumber: bank indonesia dan bank negara malaysia (2015) gambar 1. perkembangan kinerja perbankan syariah di indonesia dan malaysia 0.00 100,000.00 200,000.00 300,000.00 400,000.00 500,000.00 2 0 0 7 j a n o ct ju l a p r 2 0 1 0 j a n o ct ju l a p r 2 0 1 3 j a n o ct ju l a p r financing mal deposit mal 0 100000000 200000000 300000000 400000000 500000000 2 0 0 4 j a n n o v s e p t ju l m e i m a r 2 0 0 9 j a n n o v s e p t ju l m e i m a r 2 0 1 4 j a n n o v financing ina deposit ina 80 kajian konsep maslahah dalam pengembangan … (wiranatakusuma, muqorobin, yuliadi) gambar 1 menunjukkan kinerja perbankan syariah di indonesia dan malaysia berdasarkan jumlah deposito dan pembiayaan hingga juli 2015. di indonesia, jumlah pembiayaan yang diberikan cenderung melebar atau menjauhi dari jumlah depositonya. berbeda sedikit di malaysia, walaupun jumlah deposito lebih besar dari pembiayaannya, gapnya cenderung stabil. hal ini mengindikasikan bahwa bank syariah di indonesia menerapkan manajemen resiko yang lebih besar dan cenderung menjaga level rasio pembiayaan terhadap depositonya dalam level yang tidak terlalu besar. namun demikian, gambar 1 di atas menyiratkan isu apakah melebarnya gap antara pembiayaan dan deposito akan memberikan level maslahah yang lebih kecil atau sebaliknya. selain itu, kecilnya gap antara deposito dan pembiayaan di malaysia memberikan pesan bahwa level usaha yang diberikan untuk memperbesar peran perbankan syariah adalah lebih besar dibanding di malaysia, terutama dalam mendukung iklim pertumbuhan ekonomi. gambar 2 menunjukkan perbandingan antara suku bunga kredit dan imbal hasil (pls) di indonesia dan malaysia. ternyata, berdasarkan data runtut waktu terlihat bahwa indonesia memiliki tingkat pengembalian suku bunga dan imbal hasil yang lebih tinggi dibanding malaysia. dari perspektif perbankan, besarnya tingkat pengembalian dapat mendorong mobilisasi dana kepada perbankan, namun dalam perspektif perbankan syariah kondisi ini menunjukkan besarnya insentif untuk mendayagunakan dananya. imbal hasil yang tinggi tentunya dapat mendorong perekonomian dan memberikan isyarat bahwa tingkat maslahah dari keberadaan bank syariah di indonesia dapat lebih tinggi karena besarnya insentif imbal hasil yang diberikan. sumber: bank indonesia dan bank negara malaysia (2012) gambar 2. komparasi tingkat suku bunga dan imbal hasil di perbankan konvensional dan syariah indonesia dan malaysia 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00 18.00 sept nov 2013 jan mar mei jul sept nov 2014 jan mar mei jul sept nov 2015 jan mar mei jul sept int ind pls ina int mal pls mal kajian konsep maslahah dalam pengembangan … (wiranatakusuma, muqorobin, yuliadi) 81 berdasar latar belakang tersebut, tulisan ini secara empiris mencoba untuk melihat praktekpraktek saat ini bank syariah, terutama pada sisi deposito dan pembiayaan yang semakin meningkat dari waktu ke waktu. secara teknis, perbankan syariah berjalan sesuai prinsip-prinsip syariah sehingga semua produk dan jasa yang dikeluarkan adalah sesuai syariah. kredibilitas akan kepatuhan syariah karena sebagian besar bank syariah telah menyertakan dewan pengawasan syariah. dewan ini bertugas memberikan saran pada para bankir perbankan syariah semua hal yang berkaitan dengan aplikasi aturan aturan hukum islam dalam bisnis perbankan modern. oleh karena itu, perilaku nasabah perbankan akan dikaji sepanjang penelitian dengan menerapkan konsep rasional dikombinasikan dengan maksimalisasi utilitas dalam teori konsumen. namun, berbeda dengan perbankan konvensional, pencapaian maslahah adalah roh utama dari penerapan sistem islam dalam praktik perbankan syariah. selain itu, indonesia dan malaysia adalah dua tetangga yang gencar mempromosikan praktik perbankan syariah, sehingga relevan menjadi objek pengamatan. oleh karena itu, tujuan utama dari tulisan ini adalah untuk mengukur tingkat maslahah dan usaha oleh perbankan syariah mengacu pada konsep utilitas berdasar ekonomi mikro modern. metode penelitian tulisan ini menggunakan data runtut waktu mulai juli 2012 hingga juli 2015. data diperoleh dari bank indonesia dan bank negara malaysia. untuk mengukur konsep rasionalitas tulisan ini menggunakan konsep utilitas dengan memanfaatkan fungsi cobb-douglas. dalam model pilihan konsumen, utilitas cobb-douglas (cd) secara luas digunakan dapat menjelaskan secara empiris. fungsi ini secara empiris diterapkan dengan mengukur beberapa variabel, sebagai berikut: (a) konsep maslahah secara jelas mengacu pada utilitas yang dihitung sebagai perbuatan baik atau buruk. tulisan ini mencoba untuk menghubungkan konsep rasionalitas dengan aplikasi perbankan syariah di indonesia dan malaysia. m(g) adalah proxy dari "pembiayaan" oleh perbankan syariah sebagai variabel yang digunakan sesuai dengan aksioma (1) di atas. hal ini karena pembiayaan adalah penyaluran dana yang tersedia untuk proyek-proyek yang sesuai prinsip islam yang pada akhirnya dapat meningkatkan manfaat bagi manusia secara positif. sementara itu, variabel kredit dalam bank konvensional sebagai proxy untuk mengukur m(b) karena dana yang disalurkan oleh bank konvensional ada kalanya dipergunakan untuk aktivitas yang tidak selalu memenuhi prinsip syariah, misalnya mengalokasikan dana untuk mendorong proyek-proyek yang melanggar aturan syariah, seperti perjudian, dan bisnis minuman keras. singkatnya, m(g) diukur dengan mengambil jumlah skema pembiayaan yang disalurkan oleh bank syariah selama periode pengamatan. demikian pula, m(b) dihitung dengan memasukkan jumlah kredit yang disalurkan oleh bank konvensional selama periode penelitian. (b) kemudian, menurut aksioma (1) di atas, kita perlu proxy untuk variabel g dan b. dalam kasus perbankan, sisi deposit ini digunakan untuk mengukur perilaku rasionalitas pada masingmasing perbankan, syariah dan konvensional. penggunaan deposit adalah preferensi nasabah dalam menempatkan dana mereka di bank konvensional atau syariah sehingga dapat dimasukkan dalam analisis. praktik bank syariah hanya memenuhi dan memenuhi prinsip syariah, maka menempatkan dana di bank syariah dapat dianggap sebagai perbuatan baik (g), sebaliknya, 82 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 1, april 2016: 77-88 sementara dana disimpan konvensional dikelompokkan sebagai perbuatan buruk (b). (c) dalam aksioma di atas, konsep rasional juga memasukkan kemungkinan perbuatan baik atau buruk (ᴨ). dalam hal ini, probabilitas yang dikenakan untuk g dan b, yakni 0,5 atau memiliki proporsi yang sama, dalam arti bahwa manusia dianggap memiliki kecenderungan yang proporsional dalam berperilaku dan membuat pilihan karena rasionalitas mereka sendiri. (d) terakhir adalah mengenai tingkat pengembalian sebagai proxy untuk variabel usaha (e). tingkat pengembalian dalam bentuk bunga untuk mengukur usaha buruk (eb), sementara itu bagi hasil (pls) konsep tersebut dilakukan untuk mengungkap usaha baik (eg). pada dasarnya, tingkat pengembalian adalah harga dari modal yang diinvestasikan oleh nasabah. tapi, setelah dana tersedia di pasar, bank sebagai lembaga intermediasi bertindak sebagai pengumpul dana mendistribusikan mereka berdasarkan motif keuntungan. oleh karena itu, harga modal komersial digunakan untuk menarik dan menyerap dana di pasar. oleh karena itu, harga modal disebut bunga dalam konvensional dan bagi hasil dalam konsep islam yang dimanfaatkan dan dihargai sebagai usaha (e). hasil dan pembahasan etika dan rasionalitas dalam ekonomi islam pada prinsipnya etika adalah perilaku bermoral yang diterima oleh kesepakatan sosial. dalam islam, etika yang kemudian mengarah kepada rasionalitas adalah kesepakatan sosial yang didasarkan pada konsep maslahah. oleh karena itu, islam memiliki standar sendiri yang segala sesuatunya tidak hanya berdasarkan pada kesepakatan sosial tetapi dibatasi oleh nilai-nilai shariah. penerapan rasionalitas dalam islam dalam menjelaskan model rasionalitas, kita perlu mengembangkan variabel pengamatan dan definisinya, dan perannya dalam model yang dikembangkan, yaitu: (a) lemma atau aksioma 1: maslahah adalah transformasi monotonic dari falah  perbuatan baik (g) adalah setiap kebajikan dari perilaku manusia  perbuatan buruk (b) merupakan kegiatan yang tidak sesuai dengan prinsip syariah islam  m (g) adalah maslahah yang mungkin diperoleh jika seseorang melakukan perbuatan baik (g)  m (b) adalah mafsadat yang diperoleh setelah seseorang jika melakukan perbuatan melanggar hukum (b)  baik m (g) atau m(b) memiliki proporsi ditentukan meskipun tidak dapat dihitung, tapi kami berharap m(g) > m(b)  setiap perbuatan baik (g) akan diberikan keberkahan allah, sebaliknya untuk perbuatan buruk (b). (b) lemma atau aksioma 2: setiap perbuatan baik akan meningkatkan probabilitas (ᴨg) untuk mendapatkan m(g) di akhirat. sebaliknya, setiap perbuatan buruk (b) akan memiliki probabilitas (ᴨb) untuk mendapatkan m(b)  setiap orang diberikan kemampuan (a) oleh allah swt akan bertemu untuk melakukan perbuatan tertentu.  setiap orang mempunyai keinginan untuk melakukan perbuatan baik (g) dan perbuatan buruk (b). kedua perbuatan tersebut diperlukan usaha (e). dalam konteks ini, misalnya eg adalah upaya yang diarahkan untuk mencapai kebaikan, dan eb diarahkan ke kejahatan. (c) lemma atau aksioma 3: hasil yang besar memerlukan usaha besar, demikian sebaliknya. kajian konsep maslahah dalam pengembangan … (wiranatakusuma, muqorobin, yuliadi) 83 g = f(eg) dan b = f(eb), 𝜟 b / 𝜟 eb > 0, dan 𝜟 g / 𝜟eg > 0. setiap upaya yang dilakukan oleh agen ekonomi akan dibatasi oleh suatu tingkat kemampuan tertentu atas dirinya. (d) lemma atau aksiom 4: usaha dan intensitas yang sama akan sesuatu akan memberikan hasil yang proporsional, baik diarahkan untuk perbuatan baik (g) atau perbuatan buruk (b), 𝜟 b / 𝜟 eb = 𝜟 g / 𝜟eg, misalnya atau ᴨg = ᴨb (e) lemma atau aksioma 5: karena kehadiran maslahah adalah yang dikejar, sehingga konsep maslahah sudah tidak lagi mengikuti konsep marjinal yang semakin berkurang. hal ini menyiratkan bahwa: 𝜟ᴨg /𝜟g > 𝜟ᴨb /𝜟b > 0. berdasarkan aksioma di atas, kita dapat simpulkan bahwa (1) maslahah untuk perbuatan baik akan meningkat ketika setiap individu memperbesar kemungkinan untuk melakukan perbuatan baik dan usaha menuju kebaikan secara maksimal, (2) sementara itu, mafsadat untuk perbuatan buruk meningkat ketika individu berkomitmen untuk meningkatkan probabilitas menuju keburukan disertai usaha untuk melakukannya. maslahah teori dalam hukum islam .secara harfiah, kata maslahah berasal dari kata kerja " saluha " , yang menunjukkan baik, tepat, jujur atau hanya seseorang atau sesuatu. antonim nya, mafsadah menunjukkan sesuatu yang berbahaya dan merusak. penggunaan maslahah sebagai sumber hukum independen telah dianjurkan oleh banyak ahli hukum kontemporer dan reformis muhammad abduh (d.1905), rashid rida (d.1935), ibn ' ashur (d.1973) dan muhammad sa'id ramadhan al-buti. mendukung prinsip didasarkan pada gagasan bahwa hukum islam diturunkan untuk melayani, inter alia, kesejahteraan manusia (lubis, 1995, ms. 10). oleh karena itu, semua hal yang melestarikan sumur-yang ada di masyarakat di baris dengan tujuan dari syariat dan oleh karena itu harus mengejar dan secara hukum diakui. namun, ada pendapat di kalangan para dewan juri klasik dalam menerapkan prinsip maslahah sebagai faktor yang menentukan dalam hukum islam. karena ambiguitas dalam mendefinisikan batas (sejauh pembenaran kesejahteraan manusia bisa digunakan untuk menentukan hukum), para dewan juri klasik telah berbeda dalam mengakui keabsahan maslahah sebagai sumber hukum. beberapa sarjana mengklaim bahwa al-syafi'i tidak menggunakan maslahah sebagai bukti hukum independen (dalil) karena ia benar-benar terbatas penggunaan pendapat pribadi (ra'y) untuk qiyas (analogi). menurut al-syafi'i, menerapkan konsep maslahah akan melebihi keterbatasan diizinkan penggunaan penalaran hukum manusia dalam menyusun baru hukum (lubis, 1995). mungkin, al-syafi'i berusaha untuk menggambarkan metodologi hukum (al-qur'an, sunnah, qiyas dan ijmak ') dijelaskan dalam alrisalah sebagai sumber mandiri hukum yang dapat menjawab semua pertanyaan dalam kehidupan seorang muslim. al-syafi'i percaya bahwa sumber-sumber hukum cukup untuk menutupi maslahah manusia. dia pikir syari'at membawa kesadaran penuh yang semua maslahah dan tidak ada maslahah di luar kerangka yang pada umumnya. diskusi tentang deposito dalam bank syariah terbagi menjadi tiga kelompok. pertama, adalah studi yang terutama difokuskan pada tingkat pengembalian tingkat deposito dan faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi volatilitasnya. chong dan liu (2008) menyelidiki hubungan antara pengembalian deposito bank syariah dengan bunga deposito tetap konvensional di malaysia. menggunakan data runtut waktu berkisar antara april 1995april 2004, chong dan liu (2008) mampu memberikan bukti bahwa tingkat pengembalian deposito di bank syariah 84 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 1, april 2016: 77-88 bergantung pada suku bunga deposito bank umum konvensional. kedua, beberapa studi juga membahas jumlah deposito bank dan faktor-faktor penentunya. haron dan azmi (2008) menggunakan variabel ekonomi makro sebagai penjelasan variabel untuk memprediksi perilaku deposito di malaysia dan mengungkapkan bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi dan peningkatan pasokan uang, indeks komposit dan indeks harga konsumen, meningkatkan deposito bank syariah. selain itu, haron dan azmi (2008) juga secara empiris membuktikan bahwa setiap peningkatan tingkat suku bunga, jumlah deposito bank umum konvensional akan meningkat dan deposito bank syariah akan menurun, dan sebaliknya. hasil yang sama ditemukan oleh rohmah (2006) dengan kasus indonesia terjadi kointegrasi jangka panjang antara deposito bank syariah dengan tingkat pengembalian deposito konvensional, tingkat pendapatan dan jumlah cabang bank syariah. haron dan ahmad (2000), juga menyelidiki bahwa efek suku bunga konvensional dan tingkat keuntungan pada dana yang disimpan dengan sistem perbankan syariah di malaysia. hubungan negatif muncul antara suku bunga bank umum konvensional dan total deposito di bank syariah sehingga memberikan bukti nasabah di perbankan syariah menggunakan ukuran tingkat pengembalian hasil deposito dalam memaksimalkan tingkat utilitasnya. sementara itu, kasri dan kasim (2009) memberikan kesimpulan penelitian yang mendukung haron dan ahmad (2000), rohmah (2006), haron dan azmi (2008) dan kasim et al (2009), bahwa deposit bank syariah berkorelasi secara berlawanan dengan tingkat suku bunga. abduh et al. (2011) meneliti hubungan antara variabel makro ekonomi dan krisis keuangan terhadap fluktuasi total deposito di malaysia pada industri perbankan syariah. dengan menggunakan teknik model koreksi kesalahan (vecm), abduh et al. (2011) menemukan inflasi memiliki efek negatif terhadap total deposito. sedangkan variabel-variabel makro ekonomi lainnya tidak terbukti berdampak pada total deposito. menariknya, krisis keuangan secara signifikan dan positif mempengaruhi total deposito perbankan syariah di malaysia. ketiga, adalah kelompok studi yang menggabungkan antara tingkat pengembalian deposito bank dan volume deposito. bacha's (2004) membahas kausalitas hubungan antara suku bunga bank umum konvensional dengan tingkat pengembalian perbankan syariah serta antara konvensional tetap-deposito dan deposito bank syariah. dengan menggunakan data runtut waktu dari januari 1994 hingga juli 2003, studi menunjukkan bahwa perubahan suku bunga bank konvensional dan total deposito menyebabkan perubahan dalam tingkat pengembalian dan total deposito bank syariah. zainol dan kasim (2010) meneliti faktor penentu tingkat pengembalian dan total deposito di perbankan syariah. dengan data bulanan selama 10 tahun dari januari 1997 sampai oktober 2008, mereka menemukan bahwa tingkat pengembalian bank syariah dan suku bunga bank konvensional mengalami kointegrasi dan memiliki keseimbangan jangka panjang. selain itu, studi juga menunjukkan adanya motif profit pada nasabah bank syariah karena korelasi yang negatif dan signifikan antara bunga deposito mudharabah dengan total deposit. dengan kata lain, nasabah perbankan syariah masih berdasar pada profit motif daripada regilius motif dalam melakukan transaksi di perbankan syariah, dan hal ini oleh para nasabah dipandang perilaku yang rasional. 85 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 1, april 2016: 77-88 membangun fungsi lagrange (a) berdasar fungsi permintaan marshalian singkatnya, pada pendekatan ini, maslahah akan maksimal namun tergantung pada kemampuan, diwakili oleh variabel usaha (e). fungsi maslahah: m = m (g)ᴨg m(b)ᴨb fungsi kemampuan: a = eg.g + eb.b fungsi lagrange: l = m(g)ᴨg m(b)ᴨb + δ (a-eg. g-eb. b), nilai probabilitas (ᴨ), sama sebesar 0.5 l = m(g) 0.5 m(b)0.5 + δ (a-eg. g-eb. b) hasil dari the first-order conditions: 𝜟l/𝜟g = 0.5.m(g)-0.5 m(b)0.5 – δeg = 0..................................................................... (1) 𝜟l/𝜟b = 0.5.m(g)0.5 m(b)-0.5 – δeb = 0 .................................................................... (2) 𝜟l/𝜟δ = a eg. g – eb. b = 0 ........................................................................................ (3) persamaan (1) dan (2) disederhanakan menjadi: (𝜟l/𝜟g)/(𝜟l/𝜟b) = (0.5.m(g)-0.5 m(b)0.5 – δeg)/ (0.5.m(g)0.5 m(b)-0.5 – δeb) δeg/ δeb = (0.5.m(g)-0.5 m(b)0.5)/(0.5.m(g)0.5 m(b)-0.5) eg/eb = m(b)/m(g) eb. = eg (m(g)/m(b)) or eg = eb. (m(b)/m(g)) ....................................................... (4) kemudian, subtitusikan persamaan (3) ke (4) menjadi: a = eg. g + eb.b a = eg. g + eg (m(g)/m(b)). b eg. g = a – (eg. (m(g)/m(b)). b) g = (a – (eg. (m(g)/m(b)). b))/eg or b = (a-eb. (m(b)/m(g)). g))/eb ............... (5) berdasar pada persamaan (5), persamaan utilitas dapat diperoleh dengan: m = (m (g), m(b), a) = m (g, b) = ((a-eg. (m(g)/m(b)). b)/eg)0.5. ((a-eb. (m(b)/m(g)). g/eb))0.5 m = ((a-eg. (eb/eg). b)/eg))0.5 ((a-eb. (eg/eb). g)/eb))0.5 m = ((a-eb.b)/eg))0.5. ((a-eg.g)/eb))0.5 m = ((a-(a-eg.g)/g))0.5. ((a-(a-eb.b)/eb))0.5 m = (eg. eb)0.5.................................................................................................................. (6) (b) berdasar fungsi permintaan hicksian secara singkat, hicksian mengasumsikan bahwa maksimalisasi dari maslahah telah di titik skala optimal. sehingga, yang perlu dijabarkan adalah level usaha (e) yang kemudian membawa untuk memaksimalkan maslahah selalu pada titik optimal. fungsi lagrange digunakan untuk menghitung posisi tersebut dengan langkah-langkah sebagai berikut: fungsi maslahah: a = eg.g + eb.b fungsi kemampuan: m = m(g)0.5.m(b)0.5 fungsi lagrange function: l = eg. g + eb. b + δ (m – m(g)0.5.m(b)0.5) hasil dari first order conditions: 𝜟l/𝜟g = eg – 0.5δ m(g)-0.5 m(b)0.5 = 0..................................................................... (7) 𝜟l/𝜟b = eb – 0.5δ m(g)0.5 m(b)-0.5 = 0 ..................................................................... (8) 𝜟l/𝜟δ = m – m(g)0.5 m(b) 0.5 = 0 ............................................................................... (9) subtitusi persamaan (1) dan (2), eg/eb = m(b)/m(g), where m(b) = (eg/eb).m(g), and m(g) = m(b). (eb/eg). (10) kemudian subtitusikan persamaan (4) ke (3), 86 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 1, april 2016: 77-88 m = m(g)0.5. ((eg/eb).m(g))0.5 m = m(g) (eg/eb)0.5, eb = (m(g)/m)2. eg ................................................................ (11) subtitusikan persamaan (11) ke persamaan m = m (b)0.5 ((m(b). eb/eg))0.5 m = m(b) (eb/eg)0.5, eg = (m(b)/m)2. eb ................................................................. (12) subtitusikan persamaan (11) dan (12) ke dalam persamaan a = eg.g +eb.b a = (m(b)/m)2. eb + (m(g)/m)2. eg a = (m(b)2. eb + m(g)2. eg)/m2 a = (m(g).eg.m(b) + m(b).eb.m(g))/m2 a = (m(g) m (b) (eg + eb))/m2 a = (m2 (eg + eb))/m2 a = eg + eb ....................................................................................................................... (13) persamaan lagrange di atas memberikan beberapa hal yang menarik, diantaranya: a) persamaan (4) dan (12) menunjukkan usaha yang diarahkan untuk perbuatan buruk (b) akan menurunkan maslahah (mg) dan peningkatan mafsadat (mb). oleh karena itu, segala usaha harus diarahkan kepada upaya yang baik (eg) yang akan meminimalkan kerugian dalam masyarakat. b) persamaan (5) menyiratkan bahwa perbuatan baik (g) dapat dicapai setelah kemampuan (a), yakni usaha (e) diarahkan untuk perbuatan baik (eg) adalah lebih besar daripada usaha (e) untuk melakukan perbuatan buruk (b), sehingga, pada akhirnya hal itu dapat meminimalkan mafsadat (mb) c) berdasarkan persamaan (6), maksimalisasi maslahah dengan fungsi permintaan marshalian, tergantung pada pengejaran usaha (e), baik yang berbentuk usaha baik (eg) ataupun buruk (eb). oleh karena itu, maslahah akan dominan jika upaya diarahkan perbuatan baik (eg) diupayakan oleh manusia, khususnya muslim. sementara itu, persamaan (13), berdasar fungsi permintaan hicksian, maslahah akan tetap maksimal tergantung pada tingkat upaya yang dilakukan (e), apakah dominan oleh usaha baik (eg) atau usaha buruk (eb). penerapan konsep rasionalitas pada praktik perbankan grafik 3 menunjukkan hasil empiris dari pendekatan fungsi permintaan marshalian (mdf) dan hicksian (hdf) dengan studi kasus perbankan syariah di indonesia dan malaysia. hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa (1) dari segi tingkat maslahah, perbankan syariah di indonesia lebih tinggi daripada di malaysia, (2) usaha yang lebih tinggi diperlukan dan sebaiknya dilakukan oleh perbankan syariah di indonesia agar tetap dapat memaksimalkan maslahah dibandingkan perbankan syariah di malaysia. temuan-temuan di atas dapat diuraikan lebih lanjut dengan mempertimbangkan kegiatan perbankan syariah di kedua negara masing-masing, sebagai berikut: a) dengan mengacu pada definisi maslahah yang merupakan segala perhatian yang diarahkan untuk meningkatkan kualitas kehidupan manusia baik secara fisik dan intelektual. pencapaian maslahah itu diharapkan salah satunya bisa melalui praktik perbankan syariah dengan berbagai produk dan mekanisme transaksinya. dengan demikian, cukup relevan untuk membenarkan bahwa tingkat maslahah di indonesia lebih besar dibanding malaysia karena komitmen dalam penerapan kontrak kemitraan. menurut laporan bank indonesia per oktober 2012, proporsi kontrak pembiayaan musharaka dan mudharaba sekitar 27,64% dari total pembiayaan. sementara itu, dengan mengambil kontrak sama diterapkan oleh bank syariah di malaysia, hanya sekitar 5% dengan akad mudharaba dan musyaraka per september 2012 kajian konsep maslahah dalam pengembangan … (wiranatakusuma, muqorobin, yuliadi) 87 yang dirilis oleh bank negara malaysia. tentu saja, kita tidak bisa hanya mengandalkan pada alasan ini untuk membenarkan penyebab rendahnya tingkat maslahah di malaysia. namun setidaknya, kegiatan perbankan syariah di indonesia yang lebih banyak mengarah pada kontrak kerjasama dapat meningkatkan tingkat maslahah. b) selain itu, indonesia harus lebih gencar dalam upaya membumikan praktik perbankan syariah demi menjaga pencapaian maslahah yang optimal. mengingat, proporssi asset perbankan syariah masih kurang dari 5% dibandingkan dengan konvensional aset, disamping juga keterbatasan sdm di bidang perbankan syariah. kelemahan ini pada akhirnya menuntut tambahan usaha agar optimum maslahah dapat dipertahankan. dengan demikian, walaupun tingkat maslahah di indonesia lebih tinggi, akan tetapi perkembangan perbankan syariah perlu usaha bersama yang lebih massif antara regulator, praktisi dan akademisi untuk bekerja sama secara lengkap dan komprehensif. grafik 3 menunjukkan tingkat maslahah dan usaha kedua negara dalam hal maslahah dengan menggunakan fungsi permintaan mashallian dan hicksian. indonesia memiliki tingkat maslahah yang lebih tinggi dibanding malaysia berdasar pendekatan mashallian. berdasarkan fungsi permintaan hicksian menunjukkan bahwa malaysia memiliki tingkat usaha yang besar selama periode pengamatan. hal ini berarti tingkat maslahah yang tinggi di indonesia perlu disertai dengan usaha yang lebih masif dengan dukungan pemerintah secara intensif. sedangkan di malaysia, walaupun dukungan pemerintah cukup besar, artinya upaya pemerintah lebih baik dibanding di indonesia namun belum mampu memperluas dan memperbesar tingkat maslahah dari praktik perbankan syariahnya. sumber: perhitungan penulis gambar 3. tingkat maslahah dan abilitas usaha perbankan syariah di indonesia (ina) dan malaysia (mal) 0 5 10 15 20 25 jul sept nov 2013 jan mar mei jul sept nov 2014 jan mar mei jul sept nov 2015 jan mar mei maslahah ina ability ina maslahah mal ability mal 88 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 1, april 2016: 77-88 simpulan simpulan secara empiris mencoba untuk menerapkan konsep rasionalitas berdasar perspektif islam dengan bertumpu pada konsep maslahah. dengan menggunakan fungsi cobb-douglas (cd) dan mengambil praktik perbankan islam sebagai studi kasus, hasilnya menunjukkan bahwa tingkat maslahah bisa terus-menerus ditingkatkan jika usaha diarahkan pada perbuatan baik (eg) dimaksimalkan. selain itu, maslahah akan termaksimalkan bila elemen usaha baik (eg) dominan pada setiap kegiatan. dengan mengambil islamic banking untuk mengaplikasikan konsep rasionalitas, tulisan ini menemukan bahwa perbankan syariah di indonesia memiliki tingkat maslahah yang lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan bank syariah di malaysia. tetapi, usaha yang terus-menerus harus dilakukan oleh bank syariah di indonesia agar dapat mempertahankan tingkat maksimum maslahah melalui praktik bank syariah. daftar pustaka abduh, m., omar, m.a., and duasa, j. (2011). the impact of crisis and macroeconomic variables towards islamic banking deposits. american journal of applied sciences, vol. 8 no.12: 1413-1418. bacha, o.l. (2004). dual banking system and interest rate risk for islamic banks. mpra no. 12763. chong, b. s. and liu, m. h. (2008). islamic banking: interest-free or interest-based? pacific-basin finance journal, vol. 17 no. 1: 125-144. haneef, m. a. and hafas furqani (2009). developing the ethical foundation of islamic economics: benefiting from toshihiko izutsu. intelectual discourse, vol 17 no.2: 173-199. haron, s. and ahmad, n. (2000). the effects of conventional interest rates and rate of profits on funds deposited with islamic banking system in malaysia. international journal of islamic financial services, vol. 1 no. 4: 1-7. haron, s. and wan azmi, w.s. (2008). determinants of islamic and conventional deposits in the malaysian banking system. managerial finance, vol. 34 no. 9: 618-643. kasim, s. et al. (2009). impact of monetary policy shocks on the conventional and islamic banks in a dual banking system: evidence from malaysia. journal of economic cooperation and development, vol. 30 no. 1: 41-58. kasri, r.a. and kasim, s. (2009). empirical determinants of saving in the islamic banks: evidence from indonesia, jkau: islamic econ. vol. 22 no. 2: 181201. ramli, a. m. et al. (2007). the theory of consumer bahavior: conventional vs islamic. proceedings of the 2nd islamic conference (iecons2007) organized by faculty of economics and muamalat, islamic science university of malaysia. rohmah, n. (2006). deposits determinants of islamic bank in indonesia: an ardl modeling approach, unpublished master thesis, kulliyah of economics and management sciences of iium. zainol, z. and kasim, s. (2010). an analysis of islamic banks’ exposure to rate of return risk. journal of economic cooperation and development, vol. 31 no. 1: 59-84. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 22 nomor 1, april 2021 article type: research paper does government spending in health, education, and military improve welfare in asian developing countries? wiksadana1* and estro dariatno sihaloho1 abstract: the study of government expenditure is essential for economists and policymakers. this study aims to analyze the impact of various government spending, mainly on education, health, and military, on the effect of welfare on asian countries. this study was conducted in 20 asian countries constructed on panel data from 2013–2017 and is analyzed using the fixed effect general least square (fegls) method. the results show that, government spending in health, military, and education had a positive and significant effect on asian countries' welfare. this research concludes that, the government health expenditure had the highest impact on welfare, followed by education and military spending. keywords: government spending; welfare; asian developing countries jel classification: e60; h30; o11; i38 introduction government expenditure and its various effect on the economy have been an essential issue for many researchers in the field of economy. on its most basic terms, government expenditure is composed of all the consumption, transfer of payments, and investment by the government (barro & grilli, 1994). in the 18th century, adolf wagner formulated wagner’s law that hypothesizes the correlation between the portion of government spending per income and the effect of economic development. it is also a recurrence that government spending reflected through public goods and services such as education, infrastructure, and the law has been deemed crucial for economic growth (wu, tang, & lin, 2010). according to research that utilized panel data regression with 182 countries in 54 years, wu et al. (2010) stated that government expenditure is crucial to economic growth. other studies also support this study; research by (loizides & vamvoukas, 2005) found that by the granger test, the total government expenditure caused economic growth in the short run and long run in the united kingdom and ireland. preceding research yielded a similar result of a significant positive correlation between government expenditure and economic growth through an analysis of 100 countries (landau, 2013). affiliation: 1 department of economics, faculty of economics and business, universitas padjajaran, west java, indonesia *correspondence: wiksadana18001@mail.unpad.ac.id this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v22i1.9337 citation: wiksadana, w., & sihaloho, e.d. (2021). does government spending in health, education, and military improve welfare in asian developing countries?. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 22(1), 59-74. article history received: 15 july 2020 revised: 30 july 2020 accepted: 12 jan 2021 https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=slxvgxuaaaaj&hl=en https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorid=57195354080 http://iesp.feb.unpad.ac.id/ http://iesp.feb.unpad.ac.id/ http://iesp.feb.unpad.ac.id/ http://iesp.feb.unpad.ac.id/ mailto:wiksadana18001@mail.unpad.ac.id http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/9337 https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v22i1.9337&domain=pdf wiksadana & sihaloho does government spending in health, education, and military improve welfare … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 60 other research on the effect of government spending on capital formation on economic growth in the south-eastern europe region resulted in a positive and significant relationship between variables (alexiou, 2009). there has been much research on the effects on economic growth, either within the overall government expenditure or specific government expenditure, such as transportation, infrastructure, education, military, health, etc. studies on the effect of government education expenditure on economic growth are reflected in studies such as in michaelowa (2000), mercan and sezer (2014), and kiran (2014). studies on the effect of government health expenditure on economic growth are revealed in studies (razmi, abbasian, & mohammadi, 2012) and (gupta, verhoeven, & tiongson, 2003). meanwhile, research on the effect of government military expenditure on economic growth is disclosed in studies such as in (lindén, 1992) and (yildirim, sezgin, & öcal, 2005). in terms of the country classifications, a study by taiwo and abayomi (2011) found that government expenditure had a positive relationship with the growth of nigeria's real gross domestic product, which is an underdeveloped country. a larger-scale study of 30 developing countries uncovered that government expenditure was positively and significantly correlated with economic growth (bose, haque, & osborn, 2007). research through a single analysis that consisted of developed and less developed countries in 25 years found that government expenditure positively impacted economic growth (lin, 1994). a study of sub-saharan african countries that mainly consisted of developing and underdeveloped countries from 1987 to 1997 exposed that there was a positive and significant effect on economic growth (yasin, 2003); furthermore, this study also included variables, such as trade, private investment, population, and foreign assistant. however, a contradictory result also persists, such as a study (kweka & morrissey, 2000). this study concluded that an analysis of public expenditure in tanzania from 1965-1996, stating that productive government expenditure had a negative impact on economic growth; the paper argued that expenditure in tanzania has been unproductive and inefficient. from these findings, it can be seen that government expenditure has a significant and positive impact on economic growth; however, it needs to be supported by efficient and productive government spending. it is a widely known fact that investment in education is detrimental to economic growth. education brings many benefits through society not only in raising the general education level and improving its workforce but also in improving other facets of human life, such as health, nutrition, and sanitation, and it also increases participation in a democratic society (chandra & islamia, 2010). government expenditure in education promotes growth in the economic system through externalities/indirect effects, including better educational attainment and achievement among children, lower mortality rate and health of children, better individual health, and a lower birth rate promoting higher productivity that increased overall earning (michaelowa, 2000). a study by (mercan & sezer, 2014) also reinforces the current statement, stating that investment in education is highly beneficial to the general population at a macro and micro level; education also has a significant effect on economic growth in both direct and indirect terms. a study in 18 latin american countries consisting of developing and underdeveloped nations concluded that there is a cointegrating relationship between educational expenditures and economic wiksadana & sihaloho does government spending in health, education, and military improve welfare … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 61 growth; however, some countries such as chile, jamaica, paraguay, peru, uruguay, guyana, and nicaragua do not comply with that results (kiran, 2014). kuhl teles and andrade (2008) found that the relationship between government expenditure on education and economic growth was affected by the composition of the education expenditure divided between basic and higher education; the paper concluded that the relationship was insignificant when higher education was non-existent. research conducted in an underdeveloped country, pakistan, uncovered that education expenditures positively and significantly impacted economic growth through a bound testing approach from 1972–2010 (riasat, atif, & zaman, 2011). a larger-scale study of mainly developing countries in the ssa countries through the gmm estimator disclosed that expansion in education expenditure affected gdp per capita positively (appiah, 2017). similar to government education expenditure, government health expenditure would improve higher quality and life expectancy, promoting better human capital, thus increasing economic growth. according to world bank (1993), government expenditure on health care reduced diseases contracted in productive life years, and that diseases contributing to the burden of a developing nation could be substantially reduced through cost-effective clinical measures. a study by razmi et al. (2012), through ols regression, found a significant and positive relationship between government health expenditure and the human development index in iran. in-depth research by gupta et al. (2003) revealed that growth in government expenditure in 50 developing countries was significant to the improvements in schools and mortality rate that directly and indirectly promoted economic growth. a study that evaluates the effect of community-based neighborhood arrangement (plbk) program in sulawesi selatan, indonesia also resulted a positive relationship between government spending in health and economic welfare on that region (ardiansyah, 2016). furthermore, a study in the central african states region (cemsc) and selected african countries consisting of underdeveloped countries resulted in a positive and significant relationship between health expenditure and economic growth, analyzed through ols regression (piabuo & tieguhong, 2017). according to harris (1986), given its component, government military expenditure is less likely to be reduced compared to another government spending. the given characteristics motivate the authors to include government military expenditure as one of this paper's variables. unlike other government expenditures, military expenditure has a negative impact on economic growth; this is caused by a military expenditure seen more as a burden. it is reflected in a paper by lindén (1992) that found that military expenditure resulted in a negative effect on gnp's growth in the middle east region from 1973–1985. rothschild (1973) argued that the resources spent on the military could be reallocated for better purposes, such as infrastructure and investment expenditures that would yield a higher rate of economic growth. however, the authors found contradictory research, such as one by (yildirim et al., 2005), revealing a significant positive relationship between military expenditure and economic growth in the middle east and turkey from 1989– 1999. other in-depth research by (alptekin & levine, 2012) uncovered that in developed countries, the relationship between military expenditure and economic growth was insignificant for ldc’s (least developed countries) but positive in the developed countries. wiksadana & sihaloho does government spending in health, education, and military improve welfare … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 62 through these analysis, the authors found the lack of research in analyzing and comparing these various effects of government expenditures as a whole on welfare in asian developing countries. therefore, this study intends to fill the aforementioned research gap. in this study, three main government spending was studied, including health spending, education spending, and military spending. the novelty of the research is to provide an outlook to other academicians and policymakers and give a direction on which government spending has the highest impact on welfare. research method this study used four key variables to be observed and analyzed. these data were gross national income per capita (a proxy for welfare), domestic general government health expenditure per capita, government expenditure on education per capita, and government military expenditure per capita. these variables were in terms of current us$. the gross national income per capita data were obtained from the world bank and the organization for economic cooperation and development (oecd) national accounts data files. the domestic general government health expenditure per capita data was attained from the world health organization (who) global health expenditure database. the government expenditure on education per capita data was acquired from the united nations educational, scientific and cultural organization (unesco) institute of statistics and various statistical publications from national statistical offices. the government military expenditure per capita data was gained from the stockholm international peace research institute (sipri). these data were collected from 12 asian underdeveloped countries (afghanistan, bangladesh, cambodia, indonesia, kyrgyz republic, mongolia, myanmar, nepal, pakistan, tajikistan, timor-leste, and vietnam) and eight asian developing countries (armenia, azerbaijan, georgia, iran, kazakhstan, jordan, malaysia, and sri lanka) for the total of 20 asian countries. the classifications of underdeveloped and developing countries were obtained from the world bank classification. the analyzed collected data had a time series component from 2013-2017 (five years). table 1 descriptive information of variable used variable notation description data source gross national income gni. per. capita gross national income per capita world bank health expenditure ge. health. per. capita government expenditure on health per capita who education expenditure ge. educ. per. capita government expenditure on education per capita unesco military expenditure ge. military. per. capita government expenditure on military per capita sipri source: data processed. two other supporting data were employed to measure and unify the unit of measurements across all variables. these data were population and gross domestic product (gdp). population data were sourced from united nations population division, eurostat, census reports, and other statistical publications from national statistical wiksadana & sihaloho does government spending in health, education, and military improve welfare … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 63 offices. the gross domestic product (gdp) data was gotten from the world bank and oecd national accounts data files. this paper utilized both cross-section and time-series components, hence constructing a panel data model. the analysis was not separated between the underdeveloped countries and developing countries. it was caused by a small sample size if both categorizations were to be separated. in this paper, panel data regression was used. thus, several conditions should be tested to identify the optimized model between a fixed-effect model or a random-effect model. to determine this model, a hausman model was employed. the hausmann model identifies the usage between the fixed and random effect models by detecting the presence of endogeneity of the independent variable (sheytanova, 2014). the hausman formula was calculated as such: hausman = (β re − β fe )′ var β re − var β fe − 1 (β re − β fe ) to ensure that this model was optimized, extra tests such as heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation tests were needed. heteroskedasticity was tested using the modified wald test for groupwise heteroskedasticity. heteroskedastic means that the residuals within the model do not have a constant variance. in statistical analysis, it is assumed that the coefficients of variations are homoscedastic within the sample time duration (yang, koo, & wilson, 1992). on the other hand, autocorrelation represents similarity to a certain degree between a time series data and the lagged values of itself over its successive intervals. autocorrelation is problematic in conventional analysis because it assumes independence of each sample/observation in the dataset. autocorrelation was formulated as such: ρk = ∑ (rt − r)(rt−k − r) t t=k+1 ∑ (rt − r) 2t t=1 the presence of autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity prevented this paper from continuing its analysis through a fixed-effect or random-effect ols panel data regression model. to mitigate these concerns and conditions, this paper utilized a fixed effect generalized least square regression (fegls) model. this gls model is efficient in handling a certain degree of correlation of the residuals and estimating unknown parameters in a regression model. the generalized least square regression (gls) model was formulated as such: 𝐺𝑁𝐼. 𝑃𝑒𝑟. 𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑖𝑡𝑎 = 𝛽1𝐺𝐸. 𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑙𝑡ℎ. 𝑃𝑒𝑟. 𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑖𝑡𝑎 + 𝛽2𝐺𝐸. 𝐸𝑑𝑢𝑐. 𝑃𝑒𝑟. 𝐶𝑎𝑝ita + 𝛽3 𝐺𝐸. 𝑀𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑟𝑦. 𝑃𝑒𝑟. 𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑖𝑡𝑎 + 𝜖 in the gls regression model, 𝛽 is the minimum variance of the linear unbiased estimator, whereas y is expressed as the 𝑛 𝑥 1 response factor and 𝜖 is a 𝑛 𝑥 1 vector of errors. the gls regression model variance is expressed as such: wiksadana & sihaloho does government spending in health, education, and military improve welfare … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 64 var[ε] = σ2v 𝑉 in the variance is known to be a 𝑛 𝑥 𝑛 diagonal matrix. the observations (y) will be uncorrelated when 𝑉 has unequal diagonal elements. on the other hand, the observations (y) will be correlated when v has non-zero off-diagonal elements. estimating 𝛽, with ordinary least square (ols), 𝛽 ∗= (𝑋′ 𝑋)−1𝑦, is not optimal. thus, the model was transformed into a set of observations that would satisfy the constant variance assumption and used the least squares to estimate the parameters. with 𝜎2𝑉 as covariance matrix and v as an asymmetric non-singular matrix, it was concluded that 𝑉 = 𝐾′𝐾 = 𝐾𝐾. k is the square root of v. first, the authors defined: z = k−1y b = k−1x g = k−1ε z = bβ + g through matrix algebra, e[g] = k−1e[ε] = 0 var[g] = var[k−1ε] = k−1var[ε]k−1 = σ2k−1vk−1 = σ2k−1 kkk−1 var[g] = σ2i the least-square function is, s(β) = (z − bβ)′(z − bβ) = (k−1y − k−1xβ)′(k−1y − k−1xβ) s(β) = (y − xβ)`k−1k−1(y − xβ) s(β) = (y − xβ)`v−1(y − xβ) using partial derivative concerning β and setting it to 0, the authors obtained: (x`v−1x)β = xv−1y the generalized least square estimator of 𝛽 is: β ∗= (x`v−1)−1xv−1y and e[β ∗] = (x′v−1x)−1xv−1e[y] = (x′v−1x)−1xv−1xβ = β var[β] = σ2(b′b)−1 = σ2(x′k−1k−1x)−1 = σ2(x′v−1x)−1 the equation shown above is the basis for the model used in this analysis, and several papers, such as (ahmad & bano, 2015; tongkong, 2012), have used the fixed-effect generalized least square method to mitigate similar issues. before continuing to analyze the results, the author would address some of the problems regarding missing data and the process of handling those missing data. on perfect data conditions, this research should have 400 data samples. however, there were a total of 28 missing data. of those 28-missing data, 13 were untreated, and 15 of the remaining missing data were treated using linear data interpolation. overall data performance was wiksadana & sihaloho does government spending in health, education, and military improve welfare … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 65 considered optimal; the untreated data only accounted for 3.25% of the total data available, lower than 5% considered the maximum upper threshold for data sets with large samples (madley-dowd, hughes, tilling, & heron, 2019). the table 2 reflects all the missing data and its treatment in this research paper. table 2 missing data list and treatment details no variable country year treatment 1 government expenditure on education % total gdp bangladesh 2014 linear interpolation 2 government expenditure on education % total gdp bangladesh 2015 linear interpolation 3 government expenditure on education % total gdp georgia 2013 linear interpolation 4 government expenditure on education % total gdp georgia 2014 linear interpolation 5 government expenditure on education % total gdp georgia 2015 linear interpolation 6 government expenditure on education % total gdp indonesia 2016 untreated 7 government expenditure on education % total gdp indonesia 2017 untreated 8 government expenditure on education % total gdp jordan 2013 untreated 9 government expenditure on education % total gdp jordan 2014 untreated 10 government expenditure on education % total gdp jordan 2015 untreated 11 government expenditure on education % total gdp kazakhstan 2013 linear interpolation 12 government expenditure on education % total gdp kazakhstan 2014 linear interpolation 13 government expenditure on education % total gdp cambodia 2015 untreated 14 government expenditure on education % total gdp cambodia 2016 untreated 15 government expenditure on education % total gdp cambodia 2017 untreated 16 government expenditure on education % total gdp myanmar 2013 linear interpolation 17 government expenditure on education % total gdp myanmar 2014 linear interpolation 18 government expenditure on education % total gdp myanmar 2016 linear interpolation 19 government expenditure on education % total gdp myanmar 2017 linear interpolation 20 government expenditure on education % total gdp tajikistan 2013 linear interpolation 21 government expenditure on education % total gdp tajikistan 2014 linear interpolation 22 government expenditure on education % total gdp tajikistan 2016 untreated 23 government expenditure on education % total gdp tajikistan 2017 untreated 24 government expenditure on education % total gdp vietnam 2014 linear interpolation 25 government expenditure on education % total gdp vietnam 2015 linear interpolation 26 government expenditure on education % total gdp vietnam 2017 untreated 27 government expenditure on military (current usd) tajikistan 2016 untreated 28 government expenditure on military (current usd) tajikistan 2017 untreated source: data processed. in this paper, the authors used data interpolation only when the missing value had a preceding and proceeding value. data interpolation is used instead of data imputation because the data have a time series component. the formulation for the data interpolation is defined as such: xt = xt−1 + (xt+1 − xt−1)/2 a. xt = data at time (t) b. xt-1 = data at the preceding year (t-1) c. xt+1 = data at the proceeding year (t+1) xt represents data at a time (t), while xt-1 reflects data at the preceding year (t-1). finally, xt+1 signifies data at the proceeding year (t+1). reflected on the list above, it was concluded that the main source of missing data came from the government expenditure wiksadana & sihaloho does government spending in health, education, and military improve welfare … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 66 in education data, sourced from the united nations educational, scientific, and cultural organization. result and discussion in this research, the p-value used throughout all models was set at 5% or 0.05 significance level. concerning the main result of the main model, the model testing results, such as the hausmann test, heteroskedasticity, and autocorrelation, are shown and discussed. the hausmann test results are specified as such: table 3 hausmann test result variables coefficients fixed random difference s.e ge.health.per.capita 6,604027 12,4452 -5,841174 1,93258 ge.education.per.capita 0,3059014 7,173891 -6,86799 1,467388 ge.military.per.capita 15,2239 11,15509 4,068809 0,8369074 chi2(3) 25,03 prob>chi2 0,000 source: data processed. the hausman test for his model returned a prob>chi2 value of 0.0121. this value was lower than the p-value of 0.05, meaning that ho was rejected; thus, the fixed-effect model was optimized for this model. however, it has been stated that neither a fixed or random effect model was going to be used because of the presence of heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation. in this model, heteroskedasticity was tested with the modified wald test for groupwise heteroskedasticity. the results are expressed as such: table 4 modified wald test results variable value chi2(20) 8.3e+06 prob>chi2 0.0000 source: data processed. the results returned a prob>chi2 of 0.000, which was smaller than the p-value of 0.05, indicating that ho was rejected; thus, heteroskedasticity was present in this model. on the other hand, autocorrelation was examined employing the wooldridge test for autocorrelation in panel data. the results are presented as such: table 5 wooldridge test results variable value f (1, 19) 123.440 prob>f 0.0000 source: data processed. the results returned a prob>f of 0.0000, which was smaller than the p-value of 0.05, signifying that ho was rejected. thus, autocorrelation was present in this model. through wiksadana & sihaloho does government spending in health, education, and military improve welfare … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 67 the predetermined test, the authors could conclude that autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity were present in this model. preceding the generalized least regression results, the authors would like to give more statistical insight into the data observed. through covariance analysis as such: table 6 covariance analysis results gni.per. capita ge.health.per .capita ge.education.per .capita ge.military.per. capita gni.per.capita 8,9e+06 ge.health.per. capita 182177 4821.5 ge.education.per.capita 317977 6858.44 14529.6 ge.military.per. capita 145837 2934.64 4526.38 5403.64 source: data processed. it was denoted that all regressors had a positive correlation/relationship with gross national income per capita. however, covariance did not reflect how strong the relationship between the dependent and independent variables. table 7 fixed-effect generalized least square regression results variables gnipercapita ge.health.per.capita 15.96*** (2.801) ge.educ.per.capita 11.70*** (1.536) ge.military.per.capita 8.525*** (1.764) constant 374.76** (163.5) observations 93 number of country_1 20 standard errors in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 source: data processed. table 7 displays the generalized least square regression. through those results, the authors could be inferred some of the findings. ge.health.per.capita value of 15.96 indicated that an increase of 1 unit or 1 us$ of government spending on health, on average, would increase gross national income per capita by 15.96 us$ at a 1% significance level in ceteris paribus. in simplified terms, the growth of government expenditure had a significant positive impact on the growth of gross national income or welfare. preceding research by (gupta et al., 2003), which focused on the 50 developing countries, resulted in and confirmed the same relationship between government health expenditure and economic growth/welfare. wiksadana & sihaloho does government spending in health, education, and military improve welfare … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 68 figure 1 gross national income per capita source: world bank, 2013-2017 figure 2 gross health expenditure per capita source: world health organization, 2013-2017 from figures 1 and 2, it is clearly illustrated that both gni per capita and government expenditure on health per capita have moved in different manners over the past five 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 armenia azerbaijan georgia iran kazakstan jordan malaysia srilanka afganistan bangladesh cambodia indonesia kyrgyz republic mongolia myanmar nepal pakistan tajikstan timor-leste vietnam 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 armenia azerbaijan georgia iran kazakstan jordan malaysia srilanka afganistan bangladesh cambodia indonesia kyrgyz republic mongolia myanmar nepal pakistan tajikstan timor-leste vietnam wiksadana & sihaloho does government spending in health, education, and military improve welfare … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 69 years. in terms of gni per capita, the average growth throughout the region was at 4.67%. the data showed that azerbaijan had the slowest growth of gni per capita in this region, with a growth rate of -44.8%. on the other hand, bangladesh had the highest gni per capita growth rate in this region, with a growth rate of 46.153% in the past five years. indonesia’s gni per capita growth was at -5.361%, which was lower than the average growth in the developing asian region (1.019%). indonesia was in seventh place on the highest growth of gross national income in the developing asian region. in terms of government health expenditure per capita, the average growth throughout the region was at 13.536%. azerbaijan had the lowest domestic general government health expenditure per capita growth rate, with -50.39% in the last five years. on the contrary, nepal had the highest growth rate of government health expenditure per capita in this region, with a staggering growth rate of 89.027% in the past five years. on the other hand, indonesia had a growth rate of 65.81% in the past five years. it made indonesia be in second place in terms of growth in government health expenditure per capita. figures 1 and 2 exhibits that the growth of government health expenditure promoted the growth of gni per capita. the world bank (1993) argued it could happen because government expenditure on healthcare lowers the number of diseases contracted in productive life years. a study in the same country on the data set, iran, concluded a significant relationship between government health expenditure and the human development index through higher life expectancy (razmi et al., 2012). figure 3 gross education expenditure per capita source: the united nations educational, scientific and cultural organization, 2013-2017 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 armenia azerbaijan georgia iran kazakstan jordan malaysia srilanka afganistan bangladesh cambodia indonesia kyrgyz republic mongolia myanmar nepal pakistan tajikstan timor-leste vietnam wiksadana & sihaloho does government spending in health, education, and military improve welfare … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 70 in terms of data, it is illustrated gni per capita and government expenditure on education per capita grown in various manners over the past five years. regarding government education expenditure per capita, the average growth throughout this region was around 31.36%. timor-leste had the highest growth rate at 248.51% in the past five years, while azerbaijan had a negative growth rate of -46.66% in the past five years. in indonesia, government education expenditure per capita had a growth rate of 1.85% in the past five years. it was lower than the average and placed indonesia in seventh place in the region. through the regression results of ge.education.per.capita value of 11.70, it signified that an increase of 1 unit or 1 us$ of government spending on education, on average, would increase gross national income per capita by 11.70 us$ at a 1% significance level in ceteris paribus. in simplified terms, the growth of government expenditure on education had a significant positive impact on the growth of gross national income or welfare. this significant impact on welfare is possible through direct and indirect effects (mercan & sezer, 2014). in terms of externalities or indirect effects, government expenditure promotes economic growth through better educational attainment and achievement among children, lower mortality rate and children's health, better individual health, and a lower birth rate (michaelowa, 2000). a recent paper with the same sample of this research, pakistan, supports the positive and significant relationship between education expenditures and economic growth through a bound testing approach from 1972-2010 (riasat et al., 2011). however, the impact was slightly lower than government expenditure on health (11.70 < 15.96). figure 4 gross military expenditure per capita source: stockholm international peace research institute, 2013-2017 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 armenia azerbaijan georgia iran kazakstan jordan malaysia srilanka afghanistan bangladesh cambodia indonesia kyrgyz republic mongolia myanmar nepal pakistan tajikstan timor-leste vietnam wiksadana & sihaloho does government spending in health, education, and military improve welfare … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 71 figures 1 and 4 reveal that gni per capita and government expenditure on military per capita have grown in various manners in the past five years. on the topic of government expenditure on military per capita, the average growth rate throughout the region was around -2.732%. the highest government military expenditure per capita growth rate in this region was cambodia, with a growth rate of 78.802% in the past five years. on the other hand, tajikistan had a negative growth rate of -84.2% in the past five years. indonesia's government military expenditure per capita had a growth rate of -7.18% in the past five years. the regression results of ge.military.per.capita value of 8.525 indicated that an increase of 1 unit or 1 us$ of government spending on the military, on average, would increase gross national income per capita by 8.525us$ at a 1% significance level in ceteris paribus. in simplified terms, the growth of government expenditure on the military had a significant positive impact on the growth of gross national income or welfare. a paper by (yildirim et al., 2005) supports this relationship between government military expenditure and economic growth on a similar sample in the middle east countries. overall, the results revealed a positive and significant relationship from all independent variables on the dependent variable, with various impacts determined by its coefficient value. from the results, it was concluded that health expenditure had the highest impact on welfare, with education following it in the second place. education had less impact than health because the effect of education expenditure on economic growth, or in other words, welfare, did not take an immediate effect. it was caused by a factor of lag, meaning that the investment in education did not take an immediate effect after a specific period. chandra & islamia (2010) found that this lag period was around 5-6 years. the current analysis also uncovered that military expenditure was the least impactful expenditure on welfare. conclusion the topic of government spending has been an essential issue not only for an economist but also policymakers around the world. the composition and allocation of government spending are crucial to economic growth and welfare. however, the allocation is also needed to be supported by effective execution and planning. this paper analyzed three main compositions of government spending, mainly on education, health, and military. this paper utilized panel data analysis from 20 countries, consisting of 12 underdeveloped and eight developing asian countries from 2013 2017 using the fixed-effect generalized least squared method to compensate for autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity present in this model. through the regression, the authors found that government expenditures on health, education, and military yielded a positive and significant relationship to welfare. welfare was proxied by gross national income per capita. however, the positive and significant relationship of each spending was met with different impactful contributions to welfare. the authors uncovered that from these three different government expenditures, health expenditure yielded the most significant impact on welfare, followed by education and military spending. the deviation of the contribution wiksadana & sihaloho does government spending in health, education, and military 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(2005). military expenditure and economic growth in middle eastern countries: a dynamic panel data analysis. defence and peace economics, 16(4), 283–295. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242690500114751 https://jareonline.org/articles/heteroskedasticity-in-crop-yield-models/ http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.531.9796&rep=rep1&type=pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.531.9796&rep=rep1&type=pdf https://doi.org/10.1080/10242690500114751 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 23 no 2, october 2022 article type: research paper does technopark play a role in local economic development? case study in samosir regency agisa kuntias*, tanti novianti, and anna fariyanti abstract: local economic development is one of the development policies that is considered appropriate and strategic in the context of regional development in indonesia by optimally utilizing local resources. in line with this concept, the government of samosir regency established a technopark as a centre for innovation based on inland fishery resources to encourage local economic activities for the community. the purpose of this study is to examine the strategy of the local government of samosir regency in developing the local economy through technopark based on inland fishery resources. the analytical tool used by the analytical network process (anp) includes analysis of aspects of factors, problems, solutions, and alternative strategies. based on the results of the anp analysis, the collaboration factor is the most influencing factor in strategy development. meanwhile, in the problem aspect, the problem of limited infrastructure, low public interest and weak commitment, are the main problems that need to be resolved, so that the solution aspect becomes a priority is building trust between stakeholders, allocation of financing for infrastructure and socialization of coaching programs to the community. the formulation of the main strategy for local economic development through the development of technoparks based on the results of the anp analysis is to build multi-stakeholder synergy to support local economic development in samosir regency. keywords: local economic development; technopark; anp jel classification: o10; q55 introduction in line with the implementation of regional autonomy and fiscal decentralization, the role of local governments in pursuing regional competitiveness has become crucial and strategic. an area is very important to have competitiveness for several reasons, including; (1) for investment, attracting foreign private capital and public capital; (2) for the workforce, encouraging a skilled and creative workforce, creating a conducive environment and providing for the domestic labour market; (3) for technology, attracting innovation activities and knowledge transfer (awan et al., 2021; sabirov, 2021; song et al., 2021). therefore, regional competitiveness is the key to increasing the national economic growth rate, thus requiring special attention to create a good investment climate nationally (kiseľáková et al., 2019; wilson, 2019). affiliation: department of agribusiness, faculty of economics and management, bogor agricultural university, west java, indonesia *correspondence: agisakuntias1@gmail.com this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v23i2.15799 citation: kuntias, a., novianti, t., & fariyanti, a. (2022). does technopark play a role in local economic development? case study in samosir regency. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 23(2), 289-307. article history received: 09 aug 2022 revised: 27 oct 2022 accepted: 29 nov 2022 https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?user=bmjjtfcaaaaj&hl=en https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=saxh60eaaaaj&hl=en https://agribisnis.ipb.ac.id/ https://agribisnis.ipb.ac.id/ https://agribisnis.ipb.ac.id/ https://agribisnis.ipb.ac.id/ mailto:agisakuntias1@gmail.com http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/15799 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v23i2.15799&domain=pdf kuntias, novianti, & fariyanti does technopark play a role in local economic development? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 290 in addition, efforts to increase regional competitiveness can be carried out through regional economic development by utilizing the potential possessed by each region (rochwulaningsih et al., 2019). economic development in each region can be interpreted as the process of local governments and their communities utilizing some of the existing local resources and is expected to increase development (magdalena & suhatman, 2020). this process elevates the significance of the local economy's growth because it can be used to create new opportunities or jobs and foster growth (ferronato et al., 2019; khan et al., 2020; schroeder et al., 2018). in the context of regional development in indonesia and in anticipation of the free trade period, one of the pertinent and strategic development policies is local economic development. local economic development policies are essentially regional development policies based on the development of sectors that are the highest priority for economic activities in local communities. (suriyankietkaew & nimsai, 2021). the application of local economic development policies that emphasize optimizing local resources needs to be implemented in samosir regency, especially regarding fishery resources. samosir regency is one of the 8 (eight) regencies surrounding lake toba with an area of lake waters of 624.80 km2 of the total area of lake toba, which is 110,260 km2, so it has great potential in the development of lake toba aquaculture. lake toba is the largest lake in indonesia and holds enormous fishery resource potential. one of lake toba's most developed economic activities is the cultivation of tilapia. the economic turnover of aquaculture, especially tilapia, can reach up to rp. 5 trillion per year. the tilapia export from lake toba also contributes 21% to the gross regional domestic product in the lake toba region. it is considered much larger than the contribution of other sectors. based on data from the central bureau of statistics (bps) for 2021, the export volume of tilapia in 2020 reached 12.29 thousand tons with an export value of 1.5 trillion rupiah. north sumatra is the most significant contributor to tilapia exports, which is around 95%. (prambadi, 2021). figure 1 picture of samosir area kuntias, novianti, & fariyanti does technopark play a role in local economic development? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 291 based on figure 1. samosir regency is rich in potential natural resources, especially water resources, where most of the area is water. the de facto area of samosir regency includes samosir island, which lake toba surrounds, plus part of the mainland of sumatra island. the area is 2,069.05 km2, with a land area of around 1,444.25 km2 (various topography and land contours, namely flat, sloping, sloping, and steep). the fishery potential of samosir regency is huge, but its management is not optimal. for example, the fish seed center (bbi), which the samosir regency government established to produce superior fish seeds for the cultivating community, can only supply 15 percent of the total fish seed needs. in addition, samosir requires 100,000 fish seeds per day for the needs of fish farmers in samosir, so the needs for fish seeds must be supplied from other areas such as pematang siantar and simalungun, and this results in high transportation costs (sijabat, 2018). based on data from the bps of samosir regency, the role of the agriculture, fisheries, livestock, and forestry plantations sector in forming samosir regency's grdp reaches more than 50%. this finding shows that these sectors are the majority source of income that has so far supported the economy of samosir regency (lipi, 2017). fisheries businesses in samosir regency are generally still managed as household businesses, both aquaculture and fishing activities. according to the samosir regency bps, until 2013, aquaculture households in samosir regency continued to grow to 362 households consisting of 231 fish farming households in ponds and 131 floating net cages (kja) fish farming households. recognizing the problem of the lack of supply of fish seed needs, the samosir regency government sees the need for a revitalization policy of bbi to maximize bbi production and achieve the production target of fish seed needs. the revitalization of bbi samosir requires technological assistance and experts to optimize fish seed production. based on this, the samosir regency government initiated a collaboration with the indonesian institute of sciences (lipi) to revitalize bbi samosir. through the lipi limnology research center, a study was conducted on bbi samosir, and based on the study results; it was proposed to build a technopark samosir as a centre for research and technology areas in the waters of lake toba. in addition, samosir technopark functions to build an integrated fisheries system and form innovation-based industrial clusters in samosir regency. technopark samosir has been operating since 2015, with the initial focus of activities on developing fisheries and managing aquatic resources in the lake toba area. samosir is one of the best practises technoparks because it has produced fish hatchery technology with significant results; however, little is known about samosir technopark. considering that forty percent of samosir's territory is water, the potential to develop its fisheries is enormous. in addition to the exceptional future tourism potential of samosir, the presence of a technopark can promote the expansion of the tourism industry in samosir. (lipi, 2017) previous research that has been carried out includes the study of on the analysis of bureaucratic innovation in the technical implementation unit (upt) of cimahi techno park. the results of this study indicate that the technopark program in cimahi city kuntias, novianti, & fariyanti does technopark play a role in local economic development? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 292 significantly impacts efforts to develop the local economy by forming a telematics industrial area and giving birth to new entrepreneurs based on innovation and technology (rokhmat & paskarina, 2021). other research related to technoparks in the region, including those conducted by (sudiyatno & wulandari, 2020), examined education and training programs at technopark solo, which can improve the knowledge and skills of participants consisting of msme groups and community communities. meanwhile, technoparks in various countries have also been proven to encourage a region's economic growth. seo (2013) shows that the growth of venture companies in daedeok innopolis (korea technopark) significantly impacts the regional economy, and the economic growth rate is very high. polnaya and darwanto (2015) conducted subsequent research regarding local economic development to increase competitiveness in the creative economy smes of batik bakaran in pati, central java. this study concludes that based on the analytical network process, the local economic development strategy to increase competitiveness in batik creative smes, it is necessary to improve the technology aspect and the quality of human resources as the main priority for improvement.a technopark institution requires multi-stakeholder collaboration, including local government, academics, the business sector, community, and media, in implementing the technopark program (noori et al., 2020) every stakeholder member of the technopark institution needs to play a role and actively participate in optimally creating industrial clusters that can be a driver of competitiveness for the local economy of samosir. local economic development is an area/location-based economic development process carried out through collaboration between the government, the community, and the private sector (“market”) to optimise the use of local resources in order to improve the welfare of the community as a whole (leigh & blakely, 2017) the definition of local economic development in the new paradigm refers to the synergistic cooperation between the government, the community, and the “market”, which is the key to the success of local economic development. some research results also recommend that efforts increase integration, collaboration, coordination, or participation as part of the synergistic dimension or factor to support the success of local economic development in several countries (tello, 2011). the novelty of this research is to study the development of technopark based on water and fisheries resources, where one of the potential businesses is in the waters sector; samosir is one of the areas that is quite good in terms of data based on waters and fisheries income. this research purpose is expected to provide recommendations for policymakers to improve the competitiveness of the samosir regency and to study about the effectiveness of technopark making in the samosir area. the objectives of this research include: 1) identify technopark development's impact on local economic development in samosir regency; 2) analyze the form and role of the multi-stakeholder collaboration in the samosir technopark institution; and 3) formulate a strategy for developing the local economy of samosir through the development of marine and fishery resource-based technoparks. kuntias, novianti, & fariyanti does technopark play a role in local economic development? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 293 research method data collection and processing time were carried out for three months. the types of research data are secondary data and primary data. secondary data were obtained from documentary studies in the form of reports on the development of technopark samosir, development planning documents originating from lipi as the academic side, and also the samosir regency government (lipi: lipi limnology research center, samosir regency government: samosir regency bappeda, management organization samosir technopark, bps samosir). primary data were obtained from interviews and filling out questionnaires through related research informants (head of research center, researcher involved, head of bappeda and manager of samosir technopark, head of farmer community and start-up/msme actors. the data in this study amounted to 5 people, this is because the anp method only requires a minimum of 2 respondents and is considered an expert in their field, and already represents the issues raised (saaty, 2008). the sample in this study will be taken by purposive sampling. the sample members were selected based on representatives from the samosir government, lipi researchers, msme/start-up actors, community representatives, and the media. the main objective of a purposive sample is to produce a sample that can be logically assumed to be representative of the population (frey, 2022). this study's data analysis method consists of three stages, namely descriptive analysis, in order to determine the impact of technopark development on local economic development in samosir regency. in addition, the analysis method will be used to analyse the multi-stakeholder collaboration in technopark samosir, and the stakeholder analysis method will be implemented by conducting in-depth interviews with the five involved stakeholders. finally, after getting an overview from the descriptive analysis, to formulate a strategy for local economic development through the development of technoparks, the anp (analytical network process) method will be used, by analyzing the assessment criteria to obtain a set of measurement standards, to then be used as a tool in comparing various alternatives. anp uses the rater agreement value. rater agreement is a measure that shows the level of conformity (agreement) of the respondents (r1-rn) to a problem in one cluster (magfiroh et al., 2020). there are some essential differences between ahp and anp, as well as explaining the advantages of using the anp method compared to ahp. first, the scope of ahp analysis is more limited, while the coverage of anp is more comprehensive than ahp. this explanation is because the model framework structure is in the form of a hierarchy in the ahp, while the anp is in the form of a more varied network to reflect problems like the actual situation better. second, in the hierarchical structure of ahp, there are only dependencies between lower and higher levels, while in anp, the network structure also has feedback. third, with this feedback, alternatives can be dependent on criteria, such as on a hierarchy, but can also be dependent on each other. a sensitivity analysis will also be carried out to see the priority ranking of the types of policies that have been analyzed (janeš & begičević ređep, 2018). kuntias, novianti, & fariyanti does technopark play a role in local economic development? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 294 result and discussion benefits of technopark in supporting local economic development according to leigh & blakely (2017), the success of local economic development can be seen from several indicators, namely: first, the expansion of opportunities for small communities in employment and business opportunities; second, the expansion for the community to increase income; third, the empowerment of micro and small business institutions in the production and marketing process; and fourth, institutional empowerment of partnership networks between the government, the private sector, and local communities. (saragih, 2019) says that the led strategy has two main objectives. the first is the increase in people's income, and the second is the expansion of local job opportunities (enhancement of people's income and local job opportunities). expanding opportunities for small communities in employment and business opportunities bbi, which was initially unable to produce fish seeds optimally when it was revitalized into a technopark, has provided most of the needs for fish seeds in samosir regency. the community of fishery business groups is now able to buy fish seeds of relatively good quality. figure 2 growth of fish seed production at bbi samosir in 2012-2019 source: samosir regent's presentation (situmorang, 2020) as a direct impact of the availability of fish seeds is the emergence of business groups for fish cultivators (nursing and rearing) fish, fish processing food businesses, and service businesses providing supporting facilities and infrastructure in samosir regency with direct guidance from the government and academics. number of business fields were fostered through the technopark program. the increasing number of business fields and employment is expected to improve the community's welfare. for example, one indicator to see the welfare in a region is to look at the rate of growth of the value of the gross regional domestic product (grdp) per capita. boediono (1985) states that economic growth is also related to increased output per capita. in table 2, it can be seen the increase in the value of grdp per capita in samosir regency from 2014 to 2019; in figure 3, the graph it can be seen the trend of increasing the value of grdp from year to year. 3.000.000 2.000.000 1.000.000 2.500.000 1.200.945 800.249 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 kuntias, novianti, & fariyanti does technopark play a role in local economic development? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 295 table 1 number of start-ups and labor absorption through the samosir technopark program year 2015-2019 business fields business unit name total manpower post harvest processing samandali 45 people tic kopi 3 people cv 12 bersaudara 20 people roti ketawa 5 people kacang rondam 4 people usaha kolang-kaling 10 people bawang merah goreng 9 people kripik kentang cinabo, kripik pinandar 7 people kopi nature, kaldera, sinergi, siringo-ringo, dotashi 18 people usaha buyung sitakar 41 people fish nursery aek sibunga-bunga,saroha, sepakat, sipinngan nauli 42 people fish breeding arinta, idonata simbolon, lintong nihuta, pardosir, lundak sagala, melati tomok 94 people total 25 business unit 298 people source: samosir technopark report document (widiyanto et al., 2019) table 2 gdrp per capita of samosir regency on the basis of current prices and on the basis of constant prices year current price constant price value value 2014 23 061,59 19 234, 57 2015 25 396,80 20 226, 18 2016 27 655,31 21 171, 50 2017 29 987,13 22 197, 19 2018 32 469,66 23 301, 47 2019 35 152,68 24 562, 77 source: samosir district statistical center (widiyanto et al, 2019) figure 3 gdrp per capita of samosir regency pn the basis of current prices and on the basis of constant prices (bps samosir regency, 2020) the gdp per capita of samosir regency grew by 40.80 percent in the last five years. meanwhile, when viewed from the calculation based on 2010 constant prices, namely by eliminating the effect of price increases (inflation), during the 2014-2018 period, there rp40.000,00 rp30.000,00 rp20.000,00 rp10.000,00 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 adh adhk kuntias, novianti, & fariyanti does technopark play a role in local economic development? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 296 was also an increase. samosir regency's per capita grdp at constant prices in 2018 reached 23.30 million rupiahs. average growth of 5.0 percent in the last five years (bps samosir regency, 2020). expansion for communities to increase income based on the results of research on the fish breeding process in samosir, to increase the income of the samosir community in the fisheries sector, academics suggested to the local government that the government change the regional regulation (perda) on the sale of fish seeds which initially, fish farmers were only allowed to sell seeds with a size of 912 cm for rp. 250 per head. after further fgds were carried out between academics, government, and fish farming groups in samosir, a new regulation was made in the regional regulation that farmers may sell fish seeds of 3 (three) sizes, namely 2-3 cm (rp. 100/head), 3 -5 cm (rp. 200/head) and 5-7 cm (rp. 300/head). this finding impacts the addition of fish farming business segmentation so that the velocity of money in fish seed sales transactions is fast. communities involved in fishing also increase because of more significant and faster profits. this condition also causes market demand for fish seeds to be fulfilled more quickly. empowerment of micro and small and medium enterprises (msmes) in the production and marketing process as well as partnership networks between the government, private sector, and local communities. the empowerment of msmes is carried out with guidance related to pirt (home industry company) licensing. this finding impacts the marketing process with a broader reach in one district. in 2017 processed agricultural products that have received a pirt number are only 1 product. with the guidance from bp pom and the north sumatra provincial mui, in collaboration with the samosir technopark and the samosir regency manpower, cooperative, and umkm office, in 2018, the pirt permit increased to 8 processed products. then in 2019, the pirt permits increased to 30 msme products. meanwhile, on indicators of the cooperation network that has been built, partnerships have been carried out with local universities and fisheries vocational schools. several collaborated universities include medan state university, agricultural vocational high school, nomensen university, and north sumatra university. until now, the technopark samsosir model has several tools for relatively complete water quality analysis. it is hoped that the samosir technopark model can also open networks with other related institutions, in this case significantly increasing collaboration networks with industrial groups, local entrepreneurs, hotels, communities, and local media. stakeholder analysis at technopark samosir harmonization, empowerment, and partnership networks between actors (government, local government, business, communities, and universities) are essential principles and steps in developing the local economy (coffey & polese, 1984; esteves et al., 2021; roxas et al., 2020; yasir et al., 2021). a technopark institution requires multi-stakeholder kuntias, novianti, & fariyanti does technopark play a role in local economic development? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 297 collaboration, including local government, academics, business sector, community, and media, in implementing the technopark program. this finding is in line with the concept of local economic development, which emphasizes the process of area/location-based economic development through collaboration between the government, the community, and the private sector (“market”) to optimize the use of local resources to improve the welfare of the community as a whole (blakely, 2002). therefore, a stakeholder analysis is needed to realize a local economic development strategy. to know the role of each stakeholder, in the technopark institution, 5 (five) stakeholders are involved in the management of technopark, including the samosir district government, academia, the business sector/msmes, the community, and the media. according to schmeer (1999), stakeholders in a process are actors (individuals, groups, or institutions) who have an interest in a policy or program that will be or is being implemented. based on the results of analysis, observation, and in-depth interviews, the role of each actor in the collaborative management of technoparks can be seen in the following table: table 3 identification of stakeholders at technopark samosir no actor agency role in institutions technopark 1 regional government of samosir . regency regional development planning agency (bappeda); regional secretary (sekda); department of agriculture, fisheries, and livestock; office of cooperatives and small business; budget provider provider of infrastructure, facilities, infrastructure facilitating and coordinating the implementation of the technopark program 2 academics lipi researcher technology provider provider of professional staff guidance, training and coaching 3 business sector start ups/starting companies; msmes; field entrepreneur aquaculture technology user mentoring, training and coaching participants 4 (msme) farmers technology user mentoring, training and coaching participants 5 community local newspapers; pr samosir regency government; lipi public relations technopark program news based on the results of stakeholder identification in table 3, it can be seen that there are five stakeholders connected to the technopark institution. for local government actors, the role that has been carried out has been exceptionally well carried out, by being the driving force, both in terms of initiating technopark development, providing budget, and also a facilitator in implementing the technopark program, likewise, in terms of academics as a technology provider and community development and training. however, when viewed from the side of other actors, namely, the business sector, the community, and the media, the roles of the three actors are still passive. in a collaboration forum, the kuntias, novianti, & fariyanti does technopark play a role in local economic development? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 298 interaction between actors is essential because it benefits the region in solving local problems, formulating regional development, facilitating decision-making, and strengthening networks and system innovation. (supriyadi, 2012). the business sector, in this case, startups and msmes, is only a technology user. this improvement causes the development of startups and smes to be slower. supposedly, the business sector needs to be involved in providing input and planning, especially in the technology development process. this result is as expressed by fukuyama (1995). an interactive planning process can help generate independent behaviour, mutualistic schemes, and trust as a 'radius of trust. local forums need to be built as the basis for the collective activities of several community members (abgc) who are bound together and think together to contribute to each other. local forums are small communities responsible for advancing the region and encouraging local economic activities. (supriyadi, 2012). cooperation with many industries also helps create industrial clusters that can significantly assist in developing local economies based on regional potential. in addition, from the community side, community leaders and leaders need to be actively involved in the management of technoparks so that they can attract many people to be active in technopark programs. the media, in this case, is expected not only to play a role in reporting on the technopark program, but the emphasis on the role of the media is to assist in the marketing process of technopark products. strategy formulation the strategy formulation in this study will use the anp method. the anp method requires a decision analysis process by grouping criteria before deciding on a choice from various alternatives. the flow of research and grouping that is trying to be built starts from mapping the problem, recommending solutions, and developing program strategies. each input variable is sourced from the literature review, results of the fgd, and interview process with the respondents. based on this, the mapping of criteria/sub-criteria or alternatives in this study can be seen in the following anp network. in implementing problem-solving, anp relies on existing alternatives and criteria. saaty (2008) also explained the technical analysis of anp by pairwise comparisons of project alternatives and criteria. the preparation of the strategy in this study will use the anp method. the anp method requires a decision analysis process by grouping criteria before deciding on a choice from the various alternatives. criteria show the problem definition in a concrete form and are sometimes considered as goals to be achieved. analysis of the assessment criteria is carried out to obtain a set of measurement standards, to then be used to compare various alternatives. therefore, to obtain a local economic development strategy through technopark development, it is necessary to map problems, solutions, and alternatives to produce a model that represents the interrelationships between criteria/sub-criteria or alternatives so that the selection of the most appropriate strategy is obtained. the research flow and groupings that are trying to be built starting from mapping the problems, recommending solutions, and program development strategies. each variable input is sourced from literature reviews, fgd results, and in-depth kuntias, novianti, & fariyanti does technopark play a role in local economic development? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 299 interviews with the respondents. based on this, the mapping of criteria/sub-criteria or alternatives in this study can be seen in figure 4. figure 4 anp network structure determination of the intensity value of the interest of the technopark expert respondents for each linkage in the pairwise comparison questionnaire was carried out using the help of ms. software. excel 2013. determination of the priority vector, consistency ratio (cr), unweighted supermatrix, weighted supermatrix, limiting matrix, and normalization of the limiting matrix is done with the help of super decision software. after all pairwise comparison values are entered, the unweighted, weighted, and limit matrices are obtained. the value on the limit matrix is a priority value that shows the weight of each sub-criteria. reducing or adding criteria or sub-criteria will significantly affect the figure 4. anp network structure local economic development strategy through technopark based on inland fishery resource in samosir regency institutional human resources collaboration non-representative technopark structure membership unclear regulatory basis lack of infrastructure maintenance and limited business incubator infrastructure limited professional staff for technopark management there is still a low public interest in coaching and training programs lack of dialogue between stakeholders there is no forum for coordination between stakeholders weak commitment in the collaboration process between stakeholders forming a more representative technopark structure membership setting the groundwork for technopark regulations maintenance of infrastructure according to standards and addition of infrastructure facilities professional staff recruitment and intensive training dissemination of training and coaching programs that target the needs and problems of the community conduct periodic dialogues/fgds between stakeholders, led by the samosir regency government establish a communication platform and coordination path within the samosir technopark institution build trust between stakeholders in the collaborative process to realize sustainable commitments strengthening the samosir technopark institution with a strong legal basis and a technopark membership structure that accommodates all stakeholders searching for other legitimate sources of financing to fund infrastructure maintenance and the provision of adequate infrastructure build the capacity of technopark managers to be able to provide the best training and coaching for the community so that they can increase social capital in the form of trust and increase public interest in being involved in technopark programs building multistakeholder synergy in the success of the technopark program to support the development of the local economy of samosir p u rp o se f a ct o r p ro b le m s o lu ti o n s tr a te g y kuntias, novianti, & fariyanti does technopark play a role in local economic development? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 300 weighting results. three supermatrixes are formed: unweighted supermatrix, weighted supermatrix, and limit supermatrix. the effect of supermatrix on research results: unweighted supermatrix: in an unweighted supermatrix, two things can be seen, namely whether or not there is an influence interaction between sub-criteria and how significant the effect is. the value in the unweighted matrix will be 1 in each cluster. weighted supermatrix: comparison of the value of the effect of one sub-criteria on other sub-criteria in the weighted supermatrix is not different from the value in the unweighted supermatrix limit matrix: the limiting supermatrix cell value is obtained from the exponential results of each cell value in the unweighted supermatrix with each cell value of its own. the value on the limiting supermatrix is the value of the results of anp processing as the basis for determining priority criteria and strategies for local economic development through technopark development. factors influencing local economic development strategy through technopark development according to bangsa (2019), the institutional factor of a techno park is one of the keys to the success of creating technology-based innovations in the region. according to sanz in anttiroiko (2004), a technology park or science park must be managed by a professional team. furthermore, sanz said that collaboration factors are needed in a technopark to create a good and permanent network system between various actors. based on the opinion of the respondents who were processed in the super decision application, each factor has a different geometric mean (gmk). of the three factors, the greatest gmk value is the collaboration factor of 0.53961. it identifies that the most influential factor in the local economic development strategy through technopark development is the collaboration factor between stakeholders. meanwhile, the hr factor is the second priority factor with a gmk value of 0.29696, and the smallest gmk value is the institutional factor with a value of 0.16342. the limit of the inconsistency value used in this study is a maximum of 0.10. the inconsistency value resulting from the assessment data on the factor aspect is 0.00885, so it can be concluded that the assessment process is quite consistent. the w value generated from the rater agreement calculation mechanism is 0.48, which means that 48% of respondents agree that the collaboration factor is a priority factor in the local economic development strategy through the development of technoparks in the samosir regency. problem aspect analysis based on the results of the anp analysis on the super decision, the priority problems in the local economic development strategy through the development of technoparks on the institutional aspect are the problem of infrastructure limitations with a geomean value of 0.42857. in the hr aspect, the problem of low public interest in coaching and training programs is a priority problem in hr that must be resolved with a geomean value kuntias, novianti, & fariyanti does technopark play a role in local economic development? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 301 of 0.66666. meanwhile, in collaboration, the problem of weak commitment between stakeholders is the main problem, with a geomean value of 0.68334. collaboration between stakeholders is the key to the successful implementation of the program in technoparks. according to bangsa (2019), the stakeholders of a technopark are the government (usually local governments), the research community (academics), and the business and financial communities. stakeholders work together to integrate the use and utilization of commercial buildings, research facilities, and conference centres into hotels. the inconsistency value in the problem selection criteria is 002365, still below 0.1, indicating that the respondent's assessment process is relatively consistent. solution aspect analysis based on the data processing that has been carried out, the main priority for institutional solutions is the procurement and maintenance of infrastructure according to standards and the addition of infrastructure facilities with a geomean value of 0.44862. as for the solution for determining the legal basis for technoparks, it ranks second, with a geomean value that is not much different, namely 0.40852, and the third is technopark managers who are not only filled by the local government but also representatives of relevant stakeholders, get a geomean value of 0, 14286. meanwhile, the main priority for hr solutions is the socialization of training and coaching programs that target the needs and problems of the community with geomean values of 0,66663. as for the solution for recruiting professionals, it ranks second, with a geomean value of 0.33337. in collaboration solutions, the main priority is building trust between stakeholders in the collaboration process with a geomean value of 0.68344. as for the solution to build a communication container, it ranks second, with a geomean value of 0, 19981, and a solution for periodic fgd implementation ranks third with a geomean value of 0.11685. table 4 priority problems and solution processed results super decision application no problem value no solution value 1 infrastructure limitations 0.42857 1 establishing the legal basis 0.42857 2 membership is not representative 0.14286 2 infrastructure maintenance 0.42857 3 unclear rules 0.42857 3 representative structure 0.14286 4 lack of dialogue 0.11685 4 fgd 0.11685 5 lack of commitment 0.68334 5 trust between stakeholders 0.68334 6 no communication platform 0.19881 6 forming a communication platform 0.19981 7 low interest in coaching and training 0.66667 7 employee recruitment 0.33333 8 limited professional staff 0.33333 8 socialization 0.66667 source: researcher analysis result based on superdecision app kuntias, novianti, & fariyanti does technopark play a role in local economic development? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 302 strategy priority based on figure 4 the final stage in grouping the anp network is the selection of local economic development strategies through the development of marine and fishery resource-based technoparks in the samosir regency. the strategy formulation started with an analysis of the literature review and the interview process with the respondents. based on the data processing results using the anp method, the main priority of the strategy is to build multi-stakeholder synergy in the success of the technopark program to support local economic development in samosir with a geometric mean value of 0.46730. these results indicate that the synergy between actors is the key to the success of local economic development. several studies explain the need for synergies between actor activities and policy synergies with the instruments used are resource mobilization, network areas, clusters, formal and informal associations, and are community-driven on the concept of local economic development (atkočiūnienė & vaznonienė, 2019; iwara & kilonzo, 2022; nordberg et al., 2020) the second strategic priority is the search for other legitimate sources of financing to fund infrastructure maintenance and the provision of adequate infrastructure with a geometric mean value of 0.27718. the third strategic priority is to build the capacity of technopark managers to provide the best training and coaching for the community, to increase social capital in the form of trust, and increase public interest in being involved in technopark programs with a geometric mean value of 0.16009 this is in line with one of the studies which revealed that to build a technopark, capable human resources are needed (wolniak et al., 2019). the fourth priority is strengthening the samosir technopark institution with a solid legal basis and a technopark membership structure that accommodates all stakeholders. the inconsistency value in the respondent's answer is 0.0160, still below 0.1, which means that the respondent's answer is consistent. the w value obtained from the rater agreement formula calculation is 0.47. therefore, the respondent's level of agreement on the priority strategy is 47 percent. strengthening institutions based on the law will create structural clarity in technoparks, so they can maximize output due to a good chain of command (böyükaslan & özkara, 2022). figure 5 priority of local economic development strategy through technopark in samosir regency based on superdecision app capacity base financing synergy kuntias, novianti, & fariyanti does technopark play a role in local economic development? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 303 sensitivity analysis figure 6 sensitivity analysis based on superdecision app sensitivity analysis was carried out using super decisions software by changing the weight value of the criteria on the tested alternatives. in this test, changing the value of the weight of the requirements on the other options tested will affect the results of the actual ranking or not. if there is a point where there is a change in ranking/priority, then that point is called the critical point of an alternative. from the sensitivity analysis results of the sub-criteria, changes in the weight of the sub-criteria will affect the decision recommendations. however, the dominant change in weight recommends multistakeholder synergy compared to the legal basis and management capacity. the primary/critical criterion that gets the highest priority in selecting an alternative local economic development strategy through aquatic and fishery resources-based technopark development in samosir regency is the criterion of building technopark stakeholder synergy with a priority weight value of 0.46730. sequentially the criteria for determining the local economic development strategy through the development of aquatic and fishery resources-based technoparks in samosir regency are the search for other sources of financing/sponsorship. moreover, building the capacity of technopark managers, the smallest priority weighting is the adjustment of the legal basis in establishing the samosir technopark. conclusion the technopark program supporting local economic development in samosir regency, including expanding employment, increasing income, increasing welfare, and helping to kuntias, novianti, & fariyanti does technopark play a role in local economic development? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 304 empower micro, small and medium institutions in samosir regency. constraints currently being faced include the development of business units being fostered. only a few units can still run. they are facing problems with capital, infrastructure capacity, and infrastructure facilities at technopark business incubation centers that need to be improved, hindering startup companies from developing. based on the results of the stakeholder analysis, the roles of the three actors, namely the business sector, the community, and the media, are still seen as passive in the institutional implementation of the technopark program. based on analytical network process, the primary strategy formulation in local economic development through technopark includes building multi-stakeholder synergy in the success of the technopark program to support samosir's local economic development. the policy implication can be inferred based on the mapping of factors, problems, and solutions in technopark institutions, as well as stakeholder analysis on the samosir technopark institutional model, the collaboration between stakeholders is a priority that must be considered. for example, the samosir regency government needs to actively involve the business sector, the community, and the media in designing the technopark program and procuring technology for the management of technopark management. the synergy between stakeholders is expected to create industrial clusters and value chains from technopark samosir so that they can significantly assist in developing the local economy based on regional potential. the weakness of this research is the lack of output of the samosir technopark, for example, the lack of value chain analysis because the technopark industry cluster itself has not yet been formed. future research is expected to conduct research on technoparks with areas similar to samosir to improve aquaculture based on technoparks. references anttiroiko, a-v. 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(2021). penta helix communication model through community based tourism (cbt) for tourism village development in koto sentajo, riau, indonesia. geojournal of tourism and geosites, 37(3), 851–860. https://doi.org/10.30892/gtg.37316-718 https://doi.org/10.1504/ijbe.2019.101642 https://doi.org/10.3390/su11102889 https://doi.org/10.30892/gtg.37316-718 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 22 nomor 2, oktober 2021 article type: research paper the impact of population density and economic growth on environmental quality: study in indonesia abdulloh nashiruddin wafiq and suryanto* abstract: sustainable economic growth is followed by an improvement in environmental quality. the purpose of this study is to identify the correlation between economic growth and population density on the environmental quality index (eqi) in indonesia. in addition, it also aims to determine the impact of economic growth and population density on the environmental quality index. this study uses a quantitative method with secondary data from 33 provinces in indonesia from 2010 to 2016. data were analyzed using pearson correlation and panel data regression. the result showed that the correlation between economic growth and population density on the quality of the environment was moderate. it has a significant negative impact on environmental quality. keywords: economic growth; population density; environmental quality index jel classification: f43; o47; r23; p23; q56; k32 introduction various demands to attain high economic growth are frequently misleading for third-world countries seeking prosperity. the sustainable development goals (united nations, 2017) hints that third-world countries have not yet implemented sustainable development standards. for development purposes, environmental quality is often overlooked. besides, sustainable development goals frequently contradict strategies in pursuing economic growth. the environmental quality should improve after a period of rapid economic growth, or at least, the environmental degradation impacts are not severe. however, in many cases, the pursuit of rapid economic growth has had a negative impact on environmental quality. several studies have confirmed the existence of a negative relationship between environmental quality and economic growth. the results validated simon kuznets’s research, which is known for the environmental kuznets curve or the inverted u-curve. it illustrates that deal between the economic growth and the quality of environment will occur. in the early stages, the growth may reduce environmental quality (lee & oh, 2015), (damayanti & chamid, 2016); and (bouznit & pablo-romero, 2016). research conducted by yustisia and sugiyanto (2014) also concludes that the ekc is valid, although it only applies in middle-income countries. affiliation: department of economics, faculty of economics and business, universitas sebelas maret, central java, indonesia *correspondence: suryanto_feb@staff.uns.ac.id this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v22i2.10533 citation: wafiq, a.n., & suryanto, s. (2021). the impact of population density and economic growth on environmental quality: study in indonesia. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 22(2), 301-312. article history received: 04 dec 2020 revised: 02 jul 2021 16 jul 2021 02 aug 2021 accepted: 16 sep 2021 https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?user=yswu0vqaaaaj&hl=en https://feb.uns.ac.id/feb/s1_ekonomi_pembangunan/ https://feb.uns.ac.id/feb/s1_ekonomi_pembangunan/ https://feb.uns.ac.id/feb/s1_ekonomi_pembangunan/ https://feb.uns.ac.id/feb/s1_ekonomi_pembangunan/ mailto:suryanto_feb@staff.uns.ac.id http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/10533 https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v22i1.7836&domain=pdf https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v22i1.10533&domain=pdf wafiq & suryanto the impact of population density and economic growth … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 302 on the other hand, research by ong and sek (2013) yields contradictory results. this research reveals that economic growth had no significant impact on environmental quality in low and middle-income countries. there are no empirical proofs that show the connection between economic growth and increased carbon emissions in turkey (ozturk & acaravci, 2010). regarding the two previously mentioned arguments, this present study seeks to investigate the relationship between population density and economic growth, and environmental quality in indonesia. further, this study will generate a relationship pattern that supports one of the two opinions, whether it supports the first opinion or the second opinion. aside from those aims, several underlying principles have led to the emergence of this study. first, the quality of the environment as an important factor in sustainable economic growth has been extensively studied by the international community from various agencies concerned with the survival of the future. the environmental quality which is proxied from the environmental quality index (eqi) is a relatively new concept in indonesia. this measure was first coined in 2009. eqi is a national environmental management performance index that employs the concept of the environmental performance index (epi) by incorporating several criteria covering air quality, water quality, and forest cover quality. second, in the traditional context, development is interpreted as a country’s attempt to improve its people’s quality of life (todaro & smith, 2015), which is a national economy’s ability to create, maintain and even increase gni (gross national income) or gdp (gross domestic product) for long-term (todaro & smith, 2011). economic growth can be defined as a steady increase in income over time. for years, various efforts have been made to accelerate economic growth. however, current economic growth has impacted our environment in negative ways. environmental issues have emerged as a major problem in today’s life. environmental problems are caused by several factors, one of which is environmental degradation caused by complex human activities. as described by the mutual connections between development and its surroundings, environmental problems can jeopardize the development goal. this condition raises two consequences. first, development goals can be seen from improved environmental quality that is part of improving welfare. however, if health and quality of life are sacrificed for the sake of economic growth, which causes high pollution in the environment, it cannot be considered development. second, the decrease in output in the future is a result of environmental damage that affects productivity (beckerman, 1992) and (hitam & borhan, 2012). this study applied the panel data method, which was adopted from the method used by yustia and sugianto (2014), mor and jindal (2017), and jindal et al. (2012). panel data method is multi-dimensional data that combines cross-sectional data and time series (between spaces or individuals) (gujarati & porter, 2009). in addition, this study also wafiq & suryanto the impact of population density and economic growth … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 303 employed correlation analysis to find out how strong the relationships between variables are. the inverted u-curve theory elucidates the relationship between environmental degradation and economic growth level. furthermore, this theory states that low-income countries tend to focus on efforts to increase state revenue through investment and production that generate higher income, despite issues emerging in the environmental quality. as a result, the pollution level will rise at the beginning of revenue growth, and then fall as the growth continues (hassan et al., 2015) and (narayan et al., 2016). however, other studies continue to believe that economic growth will not have a negative impact on environmental quality in the short run (safriwan & idris, 2020); (ozturk & acaravci, 2010). figure 1 environmental kuznets curve: locus of state source: panayotou, 2003 on the kuznets curve, the relationship between phases of economic development and environmental degradation is divided into three stages. the first stage of economic growth is characterized by rising environmental damage and degradation or known as pre-industrial economics, then followed by the second stage which is industrial economics, and the third stage is post-industrial economics (service economy) (panayotou, 2003). in addition to the debate, other factors may also contribute to environmental quality in each region. one of them is population density which has a positive impact on the decline in environmental quality. it is supported by research conducted by zuhri in indonesia (2014) and ahmad et al. (2005) in pakistan. the previous research shows that a higher population density in an area has a negative impact on the environmental quality. wafiq & suryanto the impact of population density and economic growth … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 304 research method the grdp and population density data used in this study were obtained from the statistics indonesia or bps (2020). the data of the environmental quality index were derived from the publication of the ministry of environment and forestry. the analysis period used was 2010-2016 in 33 provinces in indonesia. to analyze the data, pearson correlation and multiple regression were performed. pearson correlation was designed to determine the closeness of the relationship between variables. the pearson correlation formulas are as follows: ryx or rxy = or r = multiple regression analysis was performed through a model of panel data of 33 provinces in indonesia during the 2010-2016 period. in general, three approaches were used in the regression model of panel data (rosadi, 2011), namely: 1. pooled least square, eqi = β0 + β1it lngrdp + β2it pd + utit ; 2. fixed effect, eqi = α1 + β1it lngrdp + β2it pd + ci + dt + eit ; 3. random effect, eqi = β0 + β1it lngrdp + β2it pd + wit several tests were performed to determine a good estimation technique for this research, including (1) chow test, which was used to determine the approximation between polled least square and the fixed effect model; (2) multiplier lagrange test, used to choose an estimate between pooled least square and random effect model; (3) haussman test, performed to determine the approximation between fixed effect model and random effect model; and (4) statistical test. the statistical test was measured from f statistics, t statistics, and coefficient of determination (r2). result and discussion in this study, we tested the best model and interpreted the results based on this model. the first step was analyzing the correlation between grdp, population density, and eqi. the second step was identifying the best model for the three alternatives (common effect, fixed effect, and random effect). after determining the best model, we tested the hypothesis for the ekc model certainly the linear model presented by ekins (1997). in the wafiq & suryanto the impact of population density and economic growth … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 305 following section, the results of the analysis, selection of the best model, and discussion are presented. estimation of the correlation the correlation test was performed in this research to find out the strengths of the relationship between the observed variables. the correlation coefficient values obtained can be used to study the strengths of the relationship between variables, and the probability value obtained was used as a relationship explanatory between these variables. the results are as follows: table 1 correlation estimation for eqi variable coefficient probability grdp -0.554 0.0000 population density (pd) -0.473 0.0000 the table 1 shows that the coefficient of tested variables is (negative), indicating that as the grdp and pd (population density) increase, the eqi decreases, and conversely as the eqi increases, the grdp and pd will decrease. furthermore, the grdp coefficient value of -0.554 indicates a moderate relationship between the grdp and eqi. pd and eqi with a coefficient value of -0,473 fall into the same category of moderate relationship. then, the two variables show a significant probability of 0.0000, this implies h0 is accepted or a connection between variables exists. multiple regression panel data model estimation to find the most appropriate model, panel data regression was employed on three approaches; the common effect model (ecm), the fixed effect model (fem), and the random effect model (rem). common effect model this model is the simplest way that attempts not to consider between time (time-series) and individual dimensions (cross-section). it combines time-series data and crosssectional data of a pool. the estimation results of this model are described as follows: table 2 common effect model (cem) estimation variable coefficient probability c 119.9653 0.000 ingrdp? -4.454518 0.000 pd? -0.001368 0.000 r-squared 0.374196 adjusted r-squared 0.368706 wafiq & suryanto the impact of population density and economic growth … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 306 the results of panel data regression of this model show that variables of population density (pd) and gross regional domestic product (grdp) have a significant impact on the environmental quality index (eqi). meanwhile, the adjusted r-squared value is 36.87%, implying that the independent variable can explain the dependent variable that is equal to 36.78%, and the remaining 63.22% is explained by variables outside the model. fixed effect model individual differences are explained by the fixed-effect model. these differences can be investigated through the dummy variable. the estimation results of this model are presented in table 3. table 3 fixed effects model estimation results variable coefficient probability c 235.1151 0.0000 lngrdp -14.80981 0.0009 pd 0.007023 0.4787 r-squared 0.672860 adjusted r-squared 0.616111 the regression results of this model indicate that the variable grdp has a significant impact on the environmental quality index (eqi). meanwhile, the population density (pd) does not have any significant influence. an adjusted r-squared value of 61.61% denotes that the independent variable can explain approximately 61.61% of the dependent variable, with the remaining 38.39% elaborated by variables outside the model. random effect model this particular model is a model that can explain specific effects in each individual that are used as part of the random error component, which has no correlation with independent variables. the estimation results of this model are shown in table 4. table 4 random effects model estimation results variable coefficient probability c 126.0416 0.0000 lngrdp -4.980457 0.0000 pd -0.001261 0.0148 r-squared 0.159443 adjusted r-squared 0.152070 the regression values of this effect show that grdp and population density (pd) have a significant impact on the environmental quality index (eqi). meanwhile, the adjusted rsquared value is 15.94%, implying that the independent variable can explain the dependent variable by 15.94%, and the rest 84.06% is explained by variables outside the model. wafiq & suryanto the impact of population density and economic growth … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 307 the selection of panel data estimation several tests were administered to determine the most appropriate model. the model options are common effect model (cem), fixed effect model (fem), and random effect model (rem). chow test chow test is a method for determining the best model from the common effect model (cem) and the fixed effect model (fem). the following assumptions exist in this test interpretation: (1) h0 is accepted if f-statistics <f-table and probability value (ρ-value)> 0.05; (2) h0 is accepted if f-statistics> f-table and probability value (ρ-value) <0.05. table 5 chow test results effects test statistics d.f prob. cross-section f 5.591833 (30.196) 0.0000 cross-section chi-square 149.837643 32 0.0000 the table 5 shows that the cross-section f probability value is 0.0000 or smaller than 0.05. this means that h0 is rejected while h1 is accepted, indicating that the fixed effect model (fem) outperforms the common effect model (cem) in the estimation process. hausman test the hausman test is employed to select which of the random effect model (rem) and fixed effect model (fem) is the best. the following assumptions are applied in the hausman test: (1) h0 is accepted if the hausman statistical value<chi-square value and the probability value (ρ-value)> 0.05; (2) h1 is rejected if hausman statistical value> chi-square and probability value (ρ-value) <0.05. table 6 hausman test results test summary chisq statistic chi-sq. d.f prob cross-section random 5.377823 2 0.0680 based on the results of table 6, the hausman test represents a random cross-section probability value of 0.0680, which is >0.05. it implies that the random effect model (rem) is the best model to use in the estimation process. lagrange multiplier test the lagrange multiplier (lm) test is performed to select the best approach between rem and cem. the distribution of chi-square with the degree of freedom (df) is used as a basis for the lm test. the following conditions are applied in the hypothesis testing: (1) h0 is accepted if the breusch-pagan probability value (ρ-value)> 0.05; (2) h1 is rejected if the breusch-pagan probability value (ρ-value) <0.05. wafiq & suryanto the impact of population density and economic growth … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 308 table 7 lagrange multiplier test results hypothesis test cross-section prob breusch-pagan 96.06440 0.0000 according to the results, the lagrange multiplier (lm) test shows the value of breuschpagan probability of 0.0000, which is smaller than 0.05. it means that rem can be the best model to use in the estimation process. hypothesis testing simultaneous coefficient test (f test) the f test is used to determine the independent variables. the results show that population density (pd) and gross regional domestic product (grdp) have a significant impact on the dependent variable, which is the environmental quality index (eqi). the results of the simultaneous coefficient test are shown in table 8. table 8 f test f-statistics 21.62436 prob (f-statistics) 0.000000 the table 8 presents the prob value (f-statistics) is 0.00. it shows that at a significant level of 0.05, the value of prob (f-statistics) is smaller than 0.05. therefore, it can be concluded that the grdp and pd have an impact on the environmental quality index (eqi). partial test (t-test) the t-test is used to examine the spatial effect of independent variables, which are pd and grdp on eqi. table 9 t-test results variable t-statistic probability c 126.0416 0.0000 lngdrp -4.980457 0.0000 pd -2.456560 0.0148 the followings are the results of the tests for each hypothesis: (1) gross regional domestic product (grdp) variable has a calculated value of (4.980457)> ttable (1.660), meaning that each independent variable has a significant impact on the dependent variable; (2) population density variable (pd) has a t-statistic value (2.456560)> ttable (1.660), implying that independent variable has a significant impact on the dependent variable. coefficient of determination test (r2) to measure the effect of grdp and pd on eqi, the coefficient of determination (r2) test is conducted. the table 10 features the results of the coefficient of determination test: wafiq & suryanto the impact of population density and economic growth … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 309 table 10 coefficient of determination test r-squared 0.159443 adjusted r-squared 0.152070 the results show the adjusted r-squared value of 0.152070. it indicates that independent variables, namely grdp and pd can explain 15.21% of the environmental quality index (eqi). meanwhile, the remaining 84.79% are described by factors outside this model. data interpretation and the discussion of panel data the random effect model (rem) regression estimation is calculated based on the panel data method and is processed using eviews 9 software. the results are shown in the table 11. from the regression model, the following equation is drawn: eqiit = β1 + β2 lngrdp + β3 pd + ε it eqi = 126.0416 4.980457 lngrdp 0.001261 pd where: eqi = environmental quality index (unit), lngrdp = log gross regional domestic product (idr/ year), pd = population density (%) table 11 estimation results of random effects model variable coefficient probability c 126.0416 0.0000 grdp? -4.980457 0.0000 pd? -0.001261 0.0148 r-squared 0.159443 adjusted r-squared 0.152070 the interpretations of the results of the random effect model (rem) regression using the panel data method shows that the constant partial regression coefficient value is 126.04 and the value of t-statistic is 9.90, where the table value is 1.653. this means that tstatistic is greater than the t-table (9.90> 1.653). the constant coefficient is statistically significant with a probability value of 0.00. economic growth is statistically has a significant impact on environmental quality. this condition suggests that when the level of economic growth and population density in 33 provinces in indonesia is constant or assumed to remain constant, the quality of the environment will reach a constant rate. in other words, if the level of economic growth and population density is constant, the environmental quality will remain at 126.04. further, this can be elaborated as follows: the effect of economic growth (grdp) on environmental quality (eqi) the data analysis results show that partially the level of economic growth represented by gross regional domestic product (grdp) has a significant negative impact on the environmental quality with the probability value of 0.00 <0.05. these results illustrate that wafiq & suryanto the impact of population density and economic growth … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 310 if economic growth in indonesia, particularly in the 33 provinces, increases by one unit, environmental quality is likely to decrease by 4.98 percent per unit, assuming that all other independent variables remain constant or fixed, and vice versa. this research relies on the linear model because the independent variable for grdp is not in quadratic form. these results are consistent with those of ong and sek (2013), yustisia and sugianto (2014), lee and oh (2015), and damayanti and chamid (2016). economic growth in the study areas shows an unsustainable trend. the relationship between economic growth and development to changes in environmental quality, which continues to decline, is shown by the occurrence of global warming and extreme climate change. the effect of population density on environmental quality (eqi) this study proposes that the population density has a significant negative impact on the environmental quality with the probability value of 0.0148 <0.05. these illustrate that if the population density in 33 indonesian provinces increases by one unit, the environmental quality will decline by 0.001 percent per unit, considering that other independent variables are fixed or consistent, and vice versa. the present study shows a negative correlation between population density and environmental quality. this notion corresponds with research by zuhri (2014), which discovered that population density would result in increased air emissions in indonesia. air emissions are one indicator of the quality of the environment of a region. furthermore, research by das and paul (2014); gul et al. (2015), and damayanti and chamid (2016), also underpinned similar findings that population density increased pollution. conclusion correlation analysis between grdp and eqi shows a negative trend. a negative sign indicates that an increase in domestic products will be accompanied by a decrease in environmental quality. sources of pdrb contributors in indonesia, particularly from mining, industry, and even services also worsen the condition of environmental quality. the relationship between population density and eqi is negative. the increase in population density is followed by the deterioration of environmental quality. high land requirements for industry, housing, and transportation are increasingly worsening the environmental quality. the simon kuznets ekc curve is assumed to apply in indonesia based on the estimation results of panel data regression for grdp and population density on eqi. the model used – random effect model – has a negative impact on the eqi. as indonesia's population grows, so does the pressure on the environment. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 311 wafiq & suryanto the impact of population density and economic growth … regulations governing the use of natural resources are already in place, but their implementation in the field is not optimal yet. regulations on buildings, industry, housing, roads, and physical buildings that have other significant impacts must be thoroughly implemented. compliance with environmental regulations can ensure more efficient use of natural resources. then, to reduce more environmental pollution, the government must control the waste processing of each production process of a company in addition to enacting strict policies. furthermore, population control through family planning program campaigns is required. with a controlled population, the need for food, shelter, and other facilities can be fulfilled. recommendation the results of this study suggest that policymakers tighten environmental permits. this study still has some limitations regarding the study of the high economic growth with an increasing index. according to the ekc theory, once a state reaches a certain level of per capita income, it will realize that quality of life is an important aspect to consider. references ahmad, m. h., azhar, u., wasti, s. a., inam, z., & ghani, n. 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10.18196/jesp.18.2.4043 bank’s profitability in indonesia: case study of islamic banks period 2008-2012 faiza husnayeni nahar, nano prawoto faculty of economics and business, universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta, indonesia jalan lingkar selatan, bantul, yogyakarta 55183 indonesia, phone +62-274-387656 correspondence e-mail: faizahusnayeni@umy.ac.id received: july 2017; accepted: october 2017 abstract: islamic banking is industry sector that contributes to influence the country’s economic growth. as it is necessary to control the quality of bank performance, being banking regulator, bank indonesia has responsibility to assess the financial performance of the banks, among which is to see the level of profitability by using return on assets (roa) ratio. the aim of this study is to empirically test a model that links factors such as inflation, gross domestic product (gdp), capital adequacy ratio (car), financing deposit ratio (fdr), non performing financing ratio (npf) and operating expenses over operating income (bopo) to profitability of islamic banks in indonesia from january 2008 to december 2012. this study use panel data of islamic banks from monthly financial statement data published by bank indonesia. the empirical findings of this paper suggest that inflation, gdp, npf are found statistically positive significant to bank profitability while car, fdr and bopo have negative sign and statistically significant to bank profitability. since society prefers to do transaction such as saving and invest money with bank which has good performance. it indirectly contributes to increase the indonesian economic growth. keyword: bank’s profitability, economic growth, panel data jel classification: f65, o40, c33 abstrak: perbankan syariah adalah sektor industri yang berkontribusi mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi negara. karena perlu untuk mengendalikan kualitas kinerja bank, sebagai regulator perbankan, bank indonesia memiliki tanggung jawab untuk menilai kinerja keuangan bank, antara lain untuk melihat tingkat profitabilitas dengan menggunakan rasio return on assets (roa). tujuan dari penelitian ini untuk menguji secara empiris model yang menghubungkan faktor-faktor seperti inflasi, produk domestik bruto (pdb), rasio kewajiban penyediaan modal minimum atau capital adequacy ratio (car), rasio deposito berjangka (fdr), rasio operasional non performing (npf) dan beban operasional atas laba usaha (bopo) terhadap profitabilitas bank syariah di indonesia mulai januari 2008 sampai desember 2012. studi ini menggunakan data panel bank syariah dari laporan keuangan bulanan yang dipublikasikan oleh bank indonesia. temuan empiris menunjukkan bahwa inflasi, pdb, npf secara statistik berpengaruh positif signifikan terhadap profitabilitas bank, sementara car, fdr dan bopo memiliki pengaruh yang negatif dan signifikan secara statistik terhadap profitabilitas bank. karena masyarakat lebih suka melakukan transaksi seperti menabung dan menginvestasikan uangnya dengan bank yang kinerjanya bagus, sehingga secara tidak langsung hal ini turut berkontribusi untuk meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi indonesia. kata kunci: bank’s profitability, economic growth, panel data klasifikasi jel: f65, o40, c33 bank’s profitability in indonesia: case study of islamic … (faiza husnayeni nahar, nano prawoto) 165 introduction bank as a financial institution perform key role in financial activities, like mechanism of payment, perform function like transfer and management risk and dealing with financial market and instrument. as a financial intermediary, banks also play very crucial role and considered very important for economies function (ashraf, 2012). the bank efficiency would influence the economic growth. athonasoglou (2005) as cited by stiawan (2009) stated that insolvencies of bank can lead to crisis as whole. afterwards the bank profitability contributes in economy and it would endure negative and external financial shocks and affect financial system stability. therefore, it is important to understand the profitability determination by control bank’s quality. as it is necessary to control the quality of bank performance, being banking regulator, bank indonesia has responsibility to assess the financial performance of the banks, among which is to see the level of profitability by using return on assets ratio. roa is ratio that measures bank ability to earn profit as a whole. roa is important for banks because it is used to measure effectiveness of the company in generating profits by utilizing its assets (stiawan, 2009). roa is the ratio of profit after tax to total assets. the greater roa shows the better performance of the company, because the rate of return is greater. nowadays, many researchers who studied determinant of profitability, among the researchers who have studied the effect of factors on bank profitability are yuliani (2007), stiawan (2009), dwijayanthi and naomi (2009), pramuka (2010), prastiyaningtyas (2010), anto and wibowo (2012) and omar masood (2013). most of these studies were conducted by using panel data as the analysis tool except two researches by anto and wibowo (2012) and omar masood (2013) where they used time series with cointegration and error correction model. in indonesia, most of the researchers prefer to use panel data than time series in order to get maximal result, hence this research would study about factors that influence bank profitability that use panel data as method. to investigate the effect of bank’s characteristics and macroeconomics determinants toward bank’s performance, some variables in the research includes. 1. inflation inflation is a rising price in commonly and continuously. increasing price of one or two goods cannot be called as inflation unless the increasing of price is spread widely to other goods. according to karim (2007), negative impact of inflation is made people decide economic activity such as consume, invest and produce with hesitation. it debilitates the spirit and society’s perspective to save money. inflation would reduce the society income and standard of living. besides that, investor are not willing to invest their money in real sector because price which is increase sharply would influence consumption activity and bank cannot distribute the fund and bear the cost, eventually inflation decreases the economic growth of a country. thus, hypothesis is set as follows: hypothesis 1: the higher the level of inflation, the lower will be the level of roa. 2. gross domestic product gdp is all of goods and services produce by society in a country in certain period, include goods made by foreign people who work in that country (anto and wibowo, 2012). there is relation between gdp and banking in term of saving. the most bank activity is to collect society fund and distribute that fund (invest) subsequently profit from investment will be part of islamic bank profitability (stiawan, 2009). from 166 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 2, oktober 2017: 164-172 these arguments, the following hypothesis would be derived as follows: hypothesis 2: the higher the level of gdp, the lower will be the level of roa. 3. capital adequacy ratio car is ratio that used to measure the ability of capital to cover potential losses in lending activity. by standardized the amount of car, the higher capital adequacy which owned by bank would deflate the potential risk as the impact of expansion asset especially asset which involve profit or risk (dewi, 2010). afterwards, the high ratio of car would decrease the bank problem then bank could increase the performance well. therefore, the hypothesis is: hypothesis 3: the higher the capital adequacy ratio, the higher will be the level of profitability 4. financing deposit ratio fdr is a ratio that indicates the bank performance in term of financing. if the amount of fdr is high, the bank liquidity would be low since bank distributes the larger fund to costumer. afterwards the customer would return back the fund plus additional, that additional would be part of bank profitability. thus, hypothesis that: hypothesis 4: the higher the level of fdr, the higher will be the level of roa 5. non-performing financing npf is a ratio that measures financing risk. financing risk is the risk due to the inability of the customer to return the loan accordance with a predetermined time period. the higher amount of npf would affect the bank activity like funding the other productive asset since the costumer cannot return the loan. high npf indicate the bank performance is bad in term of financing. then the hypothesis is: hypothesis 5: the lower the level of npf, the higher will be the level of roa 6. operating expenses over operating income bopo is ratio that used to measure the efficiency of bank operational. since efficiency of bank is important, we have to achieve the lowest level of bopo then profit would be earned. however, if bopo located in high level, it indicated that bank have not capable to manage the operational expenses, hence the profit would be decline. the hypothesis namely: hypothesis 6: the lower the operating expenses over operating income ratio (bopo), the higher will be the level of profitability (roa). research method this paper aims to answer to the question of what are the factors that may cause bank profitability. to answer the question, an empirical study is pursued by using panel data including roa, inflation, gdp, fdr, npf and bopo on islamic commercial bank in indonesia. the data used in this paper was collected from islamic commercial banks that listed and published by bank indonesia (banking regulator) from january 2008 to december 2012. in this case, the islamic commercial banks are muamalat indonesia bank, sharia mandiri bank and mega sharia indonesia bank since only these banks which required financial monthly report and it is general islamic bank. there are several benefits by using panel data, which are (1) reducing omitted variable problem, (2) increase degree of freedom, (3) reducing collinearity among explanatory variables, (4) provide a better solution in dynamic change inference rather than cross section, (5) capable to account the heterogeneity individual explicitly by allowing individual specific variables and (6) used to minimize the bias that may be caused by the aggregation of individual data (muryanto, 2009). bank’s profitability in indonesia: case study of islamic … (faiza husnayeni nahar, nano prawoto) 167 by these advantages, panel data is not necessary to do classical assumption test (gujarati, 2003). the general form of panel data can be written as follows: yit = α + βxit + μit ............................................ (1) assumed that i = 1, 2, 3, 4...etc and t = 1, 2, … etc so the regression can be written as follows: yit = β1 + β2x2it + β3x3it + μit ........................ (2) explanation: i = 1, 2, ..., n (cross section dimention) t = 1, 2, ..., t (time series dimention) yit = dependent variable in the time of t and unit i xit = set from independent variable in the time of t and unit i α = constanta β = constanta from independent variable in the time of t and unit i and uit μit = error hence, the model used in this research was obtained from the equation (1) and (2) namely: yit = β0 + β1x1it + β2x2it + β3x3it + β4x4it + β5x5it + β6x6it + β7x7it + μit explanation: y = return on asset x1 = inflation x2 = gross domestic product (gdp) x3 = capital adequacy ratio (car) x4 = financing deposit ratio (fdr) x5 = non performing financing (npf) x6 = operational expenses over operational income (bopo) β = constanta from independent variable in the time of t and unit i and uit μit = error result and discussion in this research, data panel is the model to test whether independent variables influence the dependent variable. there are two approaches to estimate the regression model namely fixed effect model and random effect model. to select the best model, it is needed to do the specification test namely f test. f test formula is: whereas = r square from random effect model, = r squares from fixed effect model, n = number of corporation (cross section), nt = amount of companies x amount of data, k = amount of independent variables. the discussion is: f statistic is -0.786658 and f table from numerator of 3 and denumerator of 6 at 5% alpha is 8.94. it can be concluded that the hypothesis h0 is accepted (h0= fixed effect model and h1 = random effect model) because f statistic less than 168 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 2, oktober 2017: 164-172 f table (-0.786658 <8.94) so the model used in this research is the fixed effects model. table 1 result of fixed effect model dependent variable: roa variable coefficient probability inf? 0.006469 0.0229** gdp 2.392895 0.0000** car? -0.165760 0.0000** fdr? -0.024568 0.0021** npf? 0.246247 0.0000** bopo? -0.122804 0.0000** fixed effect bmi—c -0.067690 bsm—c -0.251086 mega—c 0.318776 r2 0.875468 adj. r2 0.869642 f statistic 150.2683 prob. f stat 0.000000 durbin watson 0.228545 explanation: *: significant in level of 10%, **: significant in level of 5% source: data analysis result based on the general equation, the regression results are: roa bmi = -0.067690 + 0.006469 inf + 2.392895 gdp 0.165760 car 0.024568 fdr + 0.246247 npf -0.122804 bopo + μit ……..……………………………………………………………………..………………….. (5.2) roa bsm = -0.251086 + 0.006469 inf + 2.392895 gdp 0.165760 car 0.024568 fdr + 0.246247 npf -0.122804 bopo + μit ..…………………………………………………………………………….……………….. (5.3) roa mega = 0.318776 + 0.006469 inf + 2.392895 gdp 0.165760 car 0.024568 fdr + 0.246247 npf -0.122804 bopo + μit ……..…………………………………………………………………………………………………..(5.4) a) inflation (inf) the coefficient of inflation is 0.006469, means that if inflation rise by 1% then roa will increase by 0.06%, assuming there is no changing in the amount of independent variable. coefficient of inflation is positive so inflation has positive relation to profitability of islamic bank. it does not match with the variable hypothesis "inflation has negative effect to roa". according to dwijayanthy and naomi (2009), inflation influences the bank performance, especially reducing profitability of bank. besides that, inflation gives the negative impact to banking. bank has potential risk because of rising inflation. many people hesitate to doing economic activity such as consumption, investment and production. the relationship between bank and society is bank will do not get society fund in maximum amount then bank cannot distribute the fund to people who run the business well. bank’s profitability in indonesia: case study of islamic … (faiza husnayeni nahar, nano prawoto) 169 however, if the result of research contradicts with the variable hypothesis, there is reason behind that. by looking the amount of inflation in the period of 2008-2012, actually inflation located in the safe point which means that inflation do not rise in hyper amount (hyperinflation) because inflation only rise for 0.24 in 2010, then inflation increase for 0.25% in 2011. by rising inflation, all of goods will be expensive in the market. corporations have difficulties to cover the operational cost which over from their corporation revenue so corporations need bank to cover it. it can be concluded that bank as financial intermediary has important position to help the corporation, company, business which all of them is real sector. b) gross domestic product (gdp) the coefficient of gdp is 2.392895, means that if gdp rise by 1% then roa will increase by 2.39%, assuming that there is no changing in the amount of independent variable. coefficient of gdp is positive so gdp has positive relation to profitability of islamic bank. it matches with the variable hypothesis "gdp has positive effect to roa". according to stiawan (2009) gdp has positive correlation with the society income. if society gets income more than usual then they will save their money to the bank. bank can collect the fund maximally from them and can distribute it well into two ways, first bank distribute fund in the form of investment and second bank distribute fund to society who want to run the business. finally, bank will get the profit from those ways. c) capital adequacy ratio (car) the coefficient of car is 0.165760, means that if car rise for 1% then roa will decrease for 0.17%, assuming there is no changing in the amount of independent variable. coefficient of car is negative so car has negative relation to profitability of islamic bank. it does not match with the variable hypothesis "car has positive effect to roa". supposedly, according to hesti, car is the control variable which influences the profitability of islamic bank. if bank has capital adequacy it will minimize the bank problem. therefore, the rising of car will increase the profit (prastiyaningtyas, 2010). however, the result of study stated that rising of car will reduce the amount of roa. it happens because car does not influence roa maximally. although financing provide dominant contribution to generate profit, customer have not been able to return the fund and it will impact to the capital bank. despite bank has capital adequacy which is 8% from asset, it cannot cover that losses. d) financing deposit ratio (fdr) the coefficient of fdr is 0.024568, means that if fdr rise by 1% then roa will decrease by 0.025%, assuming there is no changing in the amount of independent variable. coefficient of fdr is negative so fdr has negative relation to profitability of islamic bank. it does not match with the variable hypothesis "fdr has positive effect to roa". according to mulyono, the result of research does not match with the theory of edward w. reed who revealed that bank financing provides dominant contribution to get profit almost 90%. it can conclude that fdr has positive influence to profitability of islamic bank (nurkhosidah, 2009). in the other hand, according to rusyami, the higher amount of fdr will reduce the profitability of islamic bank. bank will get the optimal profit if bank invest their liquidity into productive asset in the long term period in the purpose to get additional fund for daily cost. however, this action is risky if people cannot return the debt then bank do not get the 170 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 2, oktober 2017: 164-172 additional fund that they expect. therefore, bank will unable to re-invest then the profit will be decrease (nurkosidah, 2009). e) non performing finance (npf) the coefficient of npf is 0.246247, means that if npf rise by 1% then roa will increase by 0.25%, assuming that there is no changing in the amount of independent variable. coefficient of npf is positive so npf has positive relation to profitability of islamic bank. it is not match with the variable hypothesis "npf has negative effect to roa". this result research is not match with the research from stiawan (2009), dewi (2010), nurkhosidah (2009) and pramuka (2010) which stated that the higher the npf ratio, the lower the profitability. it is because the higher the ratio indicates the bad performance a bank, which also means that bank cannot handle the risk of financing problem in which many borrowers cannot return the fund so that bank get losses. in this research, there is positive relationship between npf and roa as the increment of npf ratio is in a precise standard. the ratio of npf is 0.24% and the best standard is less than 5% (nurkhosidah, 2009). hence, despite npf is raised, the income received by the islamic banks will not decline. moreover, islamic banks are always disbursed the financing by the precautionary principle to finance the parties who need it. f) operational cost per operational cost (bopo) the coefficient of bopo is 0.122804, means that if bopo rise by 1% then profitability of islamic bank (roa) will increase by 0.123% by assuming that there is no changing in the amount of independent variable. coefficient of bopo is negative so bopo has negative relation to profitability of islamic bank. it matches with the variable hypothesis "bopo has negative effect to roa". this research matches with the stiawan's research (2009) which stated that the lower the bopo ratio, the higher the profitability. it is because the lower the ratio indicates the good performance a bank, which is also mean that bank can handle the operational cost efficiently and increases the profitability of islamic bank. almilia and herdaningtyas (2005) as cited by stiawan (2009) stated that efficiency is one of important things to determine the profit of bank. bank will get profit if bank can spend the operational cost less than bank revenue and bank will get losses if bank spend the operational cost more than bank revenue. conclusion based on the regression results, the conclusion of inflation, gross domestic product (gdp), capital adequacy ratio (car), financing deposit ratio (fdr), non performing finance (npf) and operational cost per operational income (bopo) influence return on assets (roa) are: 1. inflation (h1) influences positively and significantly to return on asset (roa). this result does not match with the hypothesis “inflation influence roa negatively significantly” because the increment of inflation only around 0.01% which does not too influence roa even do not close to hyperinflation. it indicates that the higher the inflation, the higher the roa. 2. gross domestic product (gdp) (h2) influence positively and significantly to return on asset (roa). this result matches with the hypothesis then it indicates that the higher the gdp, the higher the roa. 3. capital adequacy ratio (car) (h3) influences negatively and significantly to return on asset (roa). this result does not match with the hypothesis “car influence positive significant to roa” because car do not influence roa maximally. the dominant bank’s profitability in indonesia: case study of islamic … (faiza husnayeni nahar, nano prawoto) 171 contribution to generate profit is financing, so if bank has problem with this financing, it will impact to capital adequacy which cannot cover losses. it indicates that the higher the car, the lower the roa. 4. financing deposit ratio (fdr) (h4) influence negatively and significant to return on asset (roa). this result does not match with the hypothesis “fdr influence positive significant to roa” because financing is risky if the borrower cannot return the fund as financing is the dominant contribution then it will impact to the profitability. it indicates that the higher the fdr, the lower the roa. 5. non performing finance (npf) (h5) influences positively and significantly to return on asset (roa). this is does not match with the hypothesis “npf influence negative and significant to roa” because the increment of npf is in a precise standard. hence, despite npf is raised, the income received by islamic bank do not decline. it indicates that the higher the npf, the higher the roa. 6. operational cost per operational income (bopo) or (h5) influence negatively and significant to return on asset (roa). this is match with the hypothesis and indicate that the higher the bopo, the lower the roa. 7. the amount of adjusted r squared is 0.879602, it shows that statistically, inflation, gross domestic product (gdp), capital adequacy ratio (car), financing deposit ratio (fdr), non performing finance (npf) and operational cost per operational income (bopo) influence roa in 87.5% while the other variable (out of this model) influence roa for 12.5%. refferences anto and wibowo, g., (2012). faktor-faktor penentu tingkat profitabilitas bank umum syariah di indonesia. jurnal ekonomi islam la_riba vol. 6, no. 2, uin sunan kalijaga, yogyakarta. dewi, dhika r., (2010), "faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi profitabilitas bank syariah di indonesia. universitas indonesia, jakarta. dwijayanthy, f. and naomi. (2009). analisis pengaruh inflasi, bi rate, dan nilai tukar mata uang terhadap profitabilitas bank periode 2003-2007. journal karisma vol. 3, no. 2: 87-98, universitas paramadina, jakarta. gujarati, damodar, (2003). basic econometric fourth edition. new york: the mcgraw-hill companies, inc. irawan. (2013). faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi produk domestic regional bruto pasca otonomi daerah (studi kasus di kabupaten/kota daerah istimewa yogyakarta). universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta, yogyakarta. karim, a. (2007). ekonomi makro islam. pt. raja grafindo persada, depok, indonesia nurkhosidah, s. (2009). analisis pengaruh variabel non performing financing, penyisihan penghapusan aktiva produktif, financing to deposit ratio, biaya operasional per pendapatan operasional terhadap profitabilitas pada bank syariah mandiri. uin sunan kalijaga, yogyakarta. masood, o. (2013). does co-integration and causal relationship exist between the nonstationary variable for chinese bank’s profitability? empirical evidence. the euromediterranean economics and finance review. paris, french. masood, o. and ashraf. (2012). bank-specific and macroeconomic profitability determinants of 172 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 2, oktober 2017: 164-172 islamic banks (the case of different countries). emerald insight. muryanto, budi, (2009). optimalisasi investasi pada pasar modal dengan peralatan analisis hubungan harga saham dan rasio keuangan. universitas indonesia, jakarta. pramuka, bambang agus, (2010). faktor-faktor yang berpengaruh terhadap tingkat profitabilitas bank umum syariah. journal of accounting, business management and public sector vol. 7, no.1, universitas jenderal soedirman purwokerto. prastiyaningtyas, f. (2010). faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi profitabilitas perbankan (studi pada bank umum go public yang listed di bursa efek indonesia tahun 20052008. universitas diponegoro, semarang. stiawan, a. (2009). analisis pengaruh faktor makroekonomi, pangsa pasar dan karakteristik bank terhadap profitabilitas bank syariah: studi pada bank syariah periode 2005-2008. universitas diponegoro, semarang. yuliani, (2007). hubungan efisiensi operasional dengan kinerja profitabilitas pada sektor perbankan yang go publik di bursa efek jakarta. journal of management and business sriwijaya vol. 5, no. 10, universitas sriwijaya, palembang. bank indonesia, 2008-2011, monthly finance report. bank indonesia, 2008-2009, quarterly finance report. ____________, 2007, publication letter number 9/24/dpbs. ____________, 2008, bank indonesia regulation number: 10/15/2008. ____________, 2013, syariah banking statistic. the law of indonesia number 21 of 2008 about syariah banking. the law number 10 of 1998 about the change of the law number 7 of 1992 about banking. www.bi.go.id www.muamalatbank.com www.syariahmandiri.co.id www.bsmi.co.id jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 1, april 2018, hlm. 85-90 doi: 10.18196/jesp.19.1.3890 faktor penentu permintaan rumah tinggal di provinsi daerah istimewa yogyakarta fitri juniwati ayuningtyas, ismadiyanti purwaning astuti fakultas ekonomi & sosial, universitas amikom yogyakarta jalan ring road utara, condong catur, sleman, yogyakarta 55283 indonesia, email korespondensi: f.ayuningtyas@amikom.ac.id abstract: housing is a basic human need that must be obtained, in addition to the need for food and clothing. as the growing population and the number of household increases, it will lead to an i ncrease in the need for new housings that continue to increase from year to year. the research focused on analysis the macroeconomic factors such as the market price of the property and real estate in indonesia (ihpr), loan interest rate, and households in effect on the housing demand during the years 2007-2016. this study uses the secondary data from bank indonesia and badan pusat statistik and analyzed using ordinary least square (ols). the result showed that ihpr has negative and significant effect on housing demand and the number of household has positive and significant effect on housing demand in d.i. yogyakarta. while interest rate on loan has no effect on housing demand in d.i. yogyakarta key words: housing demand, price index of residential property, loan interest rate jel classification: r1, e31, g24 pendahuluan rumah atau tempat tinggal merupakan kebutuhan dasar manusia yang harus terpenuhi, selain kebutuhan akan pangan dan sandang. seiring dengan perkembangan jaman, berkembang pula jumlah manusia, yang berimplikasi pada semakin berkembangnya kebutuhan akan rumah tinggal. oleh karena persediaan/penawaran atas tanah terbatas, maka kebutuhan akan rumah menjadi sulit terpenuhi (green, 1996 dalam budi 2009), terutama untuk kelompok masyarakat yang berpendapatan rendah. hal ini disebabkan karena, di satu sisi rumah merupakan kebutuhan pokok, namun di sisi lain untuk kelompok masyarakat yang berpenghasilan menengah ke atas, rumah dapat juga dilihat sebagai barang investasi. kebutuhan unit rumah di provinsi diy dipengaruhi oleh berbagai macam faktor. seiring dengan semakin bertambahnya jumlah penduduk dan jumlah rumah tangga, maka akan menyebabkan peningkatan terhadap kebutuhan akan rumah baru yang terus meningkat dari tahun ke tahun. peningkatan kebutuhan rumah baru menjadi belum sepenuhnya dapat terpenuhi dikarenakan dengan semakin meningkatnya kebutuhan rumah untuk masyarakat namun di sisi lain ketersediaan lahan juga semakin terbatas. melonjaknya harga rumah sebagai akibat dari meningkatnya permintaan akan rumah membuat daya beli masyarakat akan kebutuhan rumah menurun. penyebab lainnya adalah belum adanya kemudahan syarat pengajuan kredit pembelian rumah (kpr) dan suku bunga kredit yang masih cenderung tinggi. tujuan penelitian ini memfokuskan pada analisis variabel-variabel makroekonomi seperti indeks harga properti residensial (ihpr), suku bunga kredit, dan jumlah rumah tangga terhadap permintaan rumah tinggal selama periode tahun 2007-2016. 86 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 1, april 2018: 85-90 metode penelitian jenis dan sumber data penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan data time series tahunan selama periode pengamatan 2007 sampai dengan 2016. jenis data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder. data sekunder adalah yang telah diolah dan kemudian diterbitkan oleh lembaga atau peneliti tertentu. sumber data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini diperoleh dari bank indonesia dan badan pusat statistik (bps). data yang bersumber dari bank indonesia diambil dari laporan survei harga properti residensial, dalam beberapa terbitan dan data yang bersumber dari badan pusat statistik diambil dari provinsi diy dalam angka, dalam beberapa terbitan. definisi operasional variabel variabel dependen permintaan rumah tinggal (lprt): konsep permintaan rumah adalah kebutuhan unit rumah. variabel independen (1) ihpr (lihpr): rata-rata total ihpr untuk keseluruhan tipe rumah meliputi tipe kecil, menengah, dan besar. (2) suku bunga kredit (sbdk): suku bunga konsumsi kelompok bank persero. (3) jumlah rumah tangga (lrt): seseorang atau sekelompok orang yang tinggal serta mengelola kebutuhan sehari-hari secara bersama-sama. alat analisis parameter variabel independen dalam penelitian ini diestimasi menggunakan model regresi berganda ols (ordinary least squares) dengan menggunakan software eviews 7.0. berdasarkan variabel yang telah ditentukan, spesifikasi model untuk kasus permintaan rumah tinggal di provinsi diy adalah sebagai berikut. model regresi berganda ols: lprt = β0 β1 lihpr β2 sbdk + β3 lrt + e…………………………………………...(1) dimana: β0 = konstanta; β1, β2, β3 = koefisien regresi; lprt = jumlah rumah tangga (logaritma natural); lihpr = indeks harga properti residensial (logaritma natural); sbdk = suku bunga kredit; lrt = jumlah rumah tangga; e = error hasil dan pembahasan tabel 1 menyajikan hasil estimasi dengan model regresi berganda ols untuk menganalisis pengaruh dari variabel independen ihpr, suku bunga kredit, dan jumlah rumah tangga terhadap variabel dependen permintaan rumah tinggal. koefisien regresi untuk variabel ihpr adalah sebesar -0.2044376 yang berarti bahwa ada hubungan negatif antara ihpr dengan permintaan rumah tinggal. berdasarkan nilai probabilitas sebesar 0.0055 yang nilainya lebih kecil dari α = 5%, maka dapat diartikan bahwa koefisien regresi variabel ihpr tersebut berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap permintaan rumah tinggal. jika ihpr meningkat maka permintaan rumah tinggal akan menurun, begitu pula sebaliknya. variabel suku bunga kredit memiliki nilai koefisien sebesar -0.005259 dan nilai probabilitas sebesar 0.8626 yang nilainya lebih besar dari α = 5%, sehingga dapat diartikan bahwa tidak ada pengaruh yang signifikan antara suku bunga kredit dengan permintaan rumah tinggal. koefisien regresi variabel jumlah rumah tangga sebesar 2.570854 dengan nilai probabilitas sebesar 0.0005 yang nilainya lebih kecil dari α = 5%, sehingga dapat diartikan bahwa ada pengaruh positif dan signifikan antara jumlah rumah tangga dengan permintaan rumah tinggal. faktor penentu permintaan rumah tinggal… (ayuningtyas, astuti) 87 nilai koefisien determinasi (r2) yang telah disesuaikan adalah sebesar 0.939728, yang berarti bahwa diperkirakan 93,97 % perubahan perilaku variabel dependen permintaan rumah tinggal dipengaruhi oleh perilaku variabel independen ihpr, suku bunga kredit, jumlah rumah tangga dan sisanya sebesar 6,03 % dipengaruhi oleh faktor-faktor lain yang tidak termasuk di dalam model yang terangkum dalam kesalahan random. adanya pengaruh secara bersama-sama variabel independen terhadap variabel dependen ditunjukkan dengan probabilitas uji f dengan nilai sebesar 0.000140. ini berarti bahwa terdapat pengaruh secara bersama-sama variabel ihpr, suku bunga kredit, dan jumlah rumah tangga terhadap permintaan rumah tinggal. tabel 1. hasil regresi variabel koefisien (beta) t-stat sig. konstanta (c) -3.588227 -1.672647 0.1454 ihpr (lihpr) -2.044376 -4.226977 0.0055*** suku bunga kredit (sbdk) -0.005259 -0.180655 0.8626 jumlah rumah tangga (lrt) 2.570854 6.749004 0.0005*** r-squared 0.959819 adjusted r-squared 0.939728 f-stat 47.77431 prob (f-stat) 0.000140 keterangan: *** signifikan pada level 1% sumber: data diolah adapun persamaan yang diperoleh dari hasil estimasi ols adalah sebagai berikut: lprt = -3,588227 2,044376 lihpr 0,005259 sbdk + 2,570854 lrt……………..(2) pengujian asumsi klasik meliputi normalitas, autokorelasi, heteroskedastisitas, dan multikolinearitas. berdasarkan uji statistik jarquebera, diketahui bahwa nilai probabilitas untuk persamaan ols adalah sebesar 0,845587 (> α = 5%). hal ini menunjukkan bahwa residual hasil regresi permintaan rumah tinggal berdistribusi normal. uji autokorelasi menggunakan metode breush-godfrey yang dikenal dengan uji lagrange multiplier (lm) dengan membandingkan nilai hitung statistik chi squares dengan nilai kritisnya. nilai probabilitas chi squares persamaan ols sebesar 0,4274 lebih besar dari α = 5%, yang berarti tidak signifikan sehingga dapat disimpulkan bahwa model tersebut tidak mengandung unsur autokorelasi. tabel 2. uji autokorelasi uji breusch godfrey nilai hitung sig. f-stat 0.409603 prob (f-stat) obs*r-squared prob chisquare 1.699879 0.6889 0.4274 sumber: data diolah uji heteroskedastisitas menggunakan metode white dengan membandingkan nilai chi-squares hitung (n. r2) dengan nilai kritisnya. nilai probabilitas chi squares persamaan ols sebesar 0,2080 lebih besar dari α = 5%, yang berarti tidak signifikan sehingga dapat disimpulkan bahwa model tersebut tidak mengandung unsur heteroskedastisitas. 88 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 1, april 2018: 85-90 tabel 3. uji heteroskedastisitas uji white nilai hitung sig. f-stat 8.414920 prob (f-stat) obs*r-squared prob chisquare 9.671617 0.1103 0.2080 sumber: data diolah uji multikolinearitas menggunakan metode regresi auxiliary yaitu dengan membandingkan regresi model utama dengan regresi masingmasing variabel independen. nilai r2 lhipr, sbdk, lrt = 0,892236, r2 sbdk, lihpr, lrt = 0,614827, dan r2 lrt, lihpr, sbdk = 0,547126, sedangkan koefisien determinasi persamaan regresi utama adalah r2 = 0,959819. karena nilai semua koefisien determinasi regresi auxiliary lebih kecil dari koefisien determinasi regresi model utama, maka dapat disimpulkan bahwa model tersebut tidak mengandung adanya unsur multikolinearitas. tabel 4. uji multikolinearitas variabel r2 model regresi utama r2 variabel independen lihpr 0.841520 sbdk lrt 0.959819 0.614827 0.892236 sumber: data diolah berdasarkan hasil estimasi, secara statistik variabel ihpr (lihpr) berpengaruh berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap permintaan rumah tinggal (lprt). hal ini sesuai dengan hipotesis penelitian yang menyatakan bahwa ihpr berpengaruh negatif terhadap permintaan rumah tinggal. nilai koefisien variabel ihpr sebesar -2,04 mengindikasikan bahwa jika ihpr meningkat sebesar 1 persen, maka permintaan rumah tinggal akan menurun sebesar 2,04%, ceteris paribus. harga rumah sangat berpengaruh terhadap pembangunan rumah baru. tingkat harga rumah memiliki peran utama dalam menghitung kemampuan seseorang untuk memiliki rumah. harga rumah dijadikan sebagai bagian dari perhitungan kekayaan agregat dalam perekonomian. jumlah unit hunian yang tersedia merupakan bagian dari sistem keuangan nasional sehingga diperlukan indeks harga untuk jenis aset ini sehingga dapat digunakan untuk memperkirakan kekayaan riil rumah tangga. indeks harga yang dimaksud adalah indeks harga properti residensial atau disingkat dengan ihpr. penelitian ini juga sesuai dengan teori permintaan yang menyatakan bahwa semakin tinggi harga barang maka akan mengakibatkan penurunan pada permintaan akan barang tersebut. selain itu, penelitian ini juga sejalan dengan penelitian yang dilakukan oleh budi (2009) yang menyatakan bahwa harga rumah berpengaruh negatif terhadap permintaan rumah sederhana. harga rumah bersifat elastis terhadap permintaan, artinya bahwa jika terjadi sedikit perubahan harga maka akan mempengaruhi permintaan terhadap rumah. variabel suku bunga kredit (sbdk) tidak berpengaruh terhadap permintaan rumah tinggal (lprt) sehingga angka koefisien tidak dapat diintepretasikan dalam model ini. hal ini tidak sesuai dengan hipotesis penelitian yang menyatakan bahwa suku bunga kredit berpengaruh negatif terhadap permintaan rumah tinggal, namun tanda koefisien sesuai dengan hipotesis penelitian. suku bunga kredit merupakan salah satu hal yang mempengaruhi jumlah penyaluran kredit properti. akan tetapi pada kenyataannya dalam penelitian ini suku bunga kredit justru tidak berpengaruh terhadap permintaan rumah tinggal. hal ini diduga karena adanya perilaku masyarakat yang cenderung tidak mempertimbangkan besarnya suku bunga kredit yang ditawarkan pada saat itu ketika mereka akan faktor penentu permintaan rumah tinggal… (ayuningtyas, astuti) 89 mengajukan kredit kepada perbankan khususnya kredit properti rumah. di sisi lain, sebagian besar masyarakat lebih memilih membeli rumah secara tunai karena jika melalui pinjaman kpr, maka harga rumah menjadi lebih mahal yang disebabkan adanya bunga pinjaman kpr. studi ini tidak sesuai dengan teori keynesian yang menyatakan bahwa suku bunga kredit berhubungan negatif dengan jumlah permintaan kredit, yang artinya peningkatan suku bunga kredit dapat menurunkan jumlah permintaan kredit. akan tetapi penelitian ini sejalan dengan penelitian yang dilakukan oleh budi (2009) yang menyatakan bahwa suku bunga kredit tidak berpengaruh terhadap permintaan rumah. berdasarkan penelitian yang sudah dilakukan dapat dijelaskan bahwa variabel jumlah rumah tangga (lrt) berpengaruh positif terhadap permintaan rumah tinggal (lprt). hal ini sesuai dengan hipotesis penelitian yang menyatakan bahwa jumlah rumah tangga berpengaruh positif terhadap permintaan rumah tinggal. nilai koefisien variabel lrt sebesar 2,57 mengindikasikan bahwa jika jumlah rumah tangga meningkat sebesar 1 persen, maka permintaan rumah tinggal akan menurun sebesar 2,57 persen, ceteris paribus. penduduk memiliki peranan yang sangat penting dalam pembangunan suatu rumah tinggal dikarenakan penduduk menjadi sasaran obyek atas pembangunan rumah sehingga dengan semakin berkembangnya jumlah penduduk, maka akan mempengaruhi jumlah pembangunan rumah yang selanjutnya akan meningkatkan permintaan rumah. dalam hal ini jumlah penduduk merupakan unsur pembentukan suatu rumah tangga. semakin meningkat jumlah penduduk, maka semakin meningkat pula jumlah rumah tangga. suatu rumah tangga merupakan salah satu faktor sebagai penentu permintaan terhadap rumah tinggal. rumah tangga membutuhkan rumah atau permukiman sebagai bagian dari kebutuhan dasar/pokok mereka. ketika terjadi peningkatan harga rumah akan berdampak pada kekayaan sehingga menyebabkan peningkatan jumlah pinjaman untuk konsumsi dan pinjaman yang dilakukan rumah tangga. semakin bertambahnya jumlah penduduk dan jumlah rumah tangga maka akan meningkatkan permintaan terhadap rumah tinggal baik baik terkait dengan kebutuhan pokok ataupun adanya urbanisasi. penelitian ini sesuai dengan teori yang dikemukakan oleh prawoto (2003), yaitu bahwa faktor usia, ukuran pendapatan dan ciri lain dari rumah tangga harus dipertimbangkan dalam menentukan permintaan terhadap rumah tinggal. namun temuan ini tidak sejalan dengan penelitian dengah, rumate, dan niode (2014) yang menyatakan bahwa jumlah penduduk tidak berpengaruh terhadap permintaan perumahan. simpulan berdasarkan hasil estimasi yang telah dilakukan, faktor yang secara statistik tidak berpengaruh signifikan pada α = 5% terhadap permintaan rumah tinggal adalah variabel suku bunga kredit. sementara itu, faktor yang berpengaruh signifikan pada α = 5% terhadap permintaan rumah tinggal adalah variabel ihpr dan jumlah rumah tangga. langkah-langkah yang dapat ditempuh terkait dengan pengembangan permintaan rumah tinggal diantaranya pengembang (developer) hendaknya dapat menetapkan harga rumah dengan lebih rendah di bawah harga pesaing atau dengan harga yang sama namun dapat memberikan nilai tambah seperti misalnya menggunakan material yang lebih berkualitas, memberikan desain rumah yang lebih baik, menyediakan sarana dan prasarana yang lebih lengkap, serta dapat memberikan bonus ataupun hadiah kepada konsumen. langkah berikutnya adalah pemerintah hendaknya memberikan subsidi kepada masyarakat yang berpenghasilan rendah berupa uang muka dan suku bunga kredit yang 90 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 1, april 2018: 85-90 rendah serta memberikan kemudahan fasilitas kredit bagi seluruh masyarakat yang hendak membeli rumah, misalnya dengan memberikan tempo pembayaran kredit lebih lama sehingga hasrat konsumen untuk membeli rumah tinggi, selain itu hendaknya juga melakukan kebijakan pengurangan jumlah penduduk dikarenakan dengan semakin bertambahnya jumlah penduduk maka jumlah rumah tangga juga akan meningkat sehingga akan mengurangi kebutuhan unit rumah. daftar pustaka badan perencanaan pembangunan daerah. analisis informasi statistik pembangunan daerah. 2016. diy badan pusat statistik. provinsi daerah istimewa yogyakarta dalam angka 2016. d.i. yogyakarta bank indonesia. laporan perkembangan pasar properti residensial di pasar sekunder. berbagai triwulan penerbitan budi, m.s. 2009. analisis permintaan rumah sederhana di kota semarang. jurnal bisnis ekonomi. volume 16 no.2: 126-139 dengah, s., rumate, v., dan hamidi, w. 2014. analisis pengaruh pendapatan perkapita dan jumlah penduduk terhadap permintaan perumahan kota manado tahun 2003-2012. jurnal berkala ilmiah efisiensi. jurusan ilmu ekonomi pembangunan. universitas sam ratulangi. volume 14 nomor 3: 71-81 prawoto, agus. 2003. teori dan praktek penilaian properti. edisi pertama. yogyakarta: bpfe undang-undang ri no. 4 tahun 1992 tentang perumahan dan permukiman jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 21 nomor 2, oktober 2020 article type: research paper household solar photovoltaic adoption in the maldives: a socioeconomic perspective fathimah rukshana1, susilo nur aji cokro darsono2*, and nongluck suphanchaimat3 abstract: energy has become an essential part of our lives, but the current energy sources we used are depleting and non-renewable. in the case of maldives, fuel energy is expensive due to importation and high transportation cost. besides, atoll islands' characteristics require each island to have a power plant using fossil fuel, and the fuel storage availability is limited, making the electricity in these islands unstable and costly. therefore, the need for cleaner and reliable resources for energy is essential in order to ensure a better future. this study aimed to determine the factors influencing solar energy acceptance by inviting people to participate in the electronic survey in the maldives, with 119 samples collected. the result revealed that most respondents were willing to go for a solar energy source for electrification due to the current high electricity bills. a binary logistic regression analysis was performed to predict the factors for the acceptance of solar energy. the result showed that people's attitudes and current electricity bills were significantly influential in solar energy acceptance. the presumptions for policymakers are to increase the people's knowledge and awareness to elevate a positive attitude and involve the private sector to increase competition and utility in the field. keywords: solar energy; south huvadhoo atoll; maldives; electrification jel classification: q42, q56 introduction energy is a key factor in the development and progress of a nation. however, the use of fossil fuel to produce energy hinders the nations’ development. the resources used are not replaceable and limited. further, the increases in population and technology improvement have led to accelerating demand for energy. the excessive use of fossil fuel has also caused global warming and health problem for the world population. the climate change effect on the earth due to increasing pollution and co2 impedes every nation’s development. therefore, many countries are now seeking alternative energy such as solar and wind, which is unlimited and renewable, to substitute for the non-renewable energy generating resources. the clean sources of energy help minimize pollution and zeroemission. it ensures the stability of energy prices, and once installed, the production costs are low. moreover, it gives domestic energy security through a reduction in dependency on imported fuel sources (kuschbrandt, 2019). affiliation: 1 graduate school, khon kaen university. thailand. 2 department of economics, faculty of economics and business, universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta. special region of yogyakarta. indonesia. 3 department of agricultural economics, facullty of agriculture, khon kaen university. thailand. *correspondence: susilonuraji@hotmail.com this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.21.2.5040 citation: rukshana, f., darsono, s. n. a. c., & suphanchaimat, n. (2020). household solar photovoltaic adoption in the maldives: a socioeconomic perspective. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 21(2), 185-198. article history received: 26 aug 2020 reviewed: 24 sep 2020 revised: 08 oct 2020 accepted: 14 oct 2020 mailto:susilonuraji@hotmail.com http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/9634 http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp rukshana, darsono, & suphanchaimat household solar photovoltaic adoption in the maldives: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 186 the maldives is a coral island country consisting of 1,190 islands scattered around 298 km² area separated by sea. the country does not have any conventional energy sources, and the primary source of energy is petroleum. the power systems rely on imported fossil fuel. maldives' electricity supply is inefficient and unreliable. the limited capacity of oil storage facilities limited the bulk purchasing of oil when the price is low. the country spent almost 30% of its gdp on the import of petroleum. the share of petroleum products in total imports rose to 29% in 2014, from only 16% in 1990. the maldives spent $572 million on imported fuel, 33%, or roughly 19% of its gdp in 2014 (mma may 2015). in order to make electricity affordable to all, the government has to give subsidies. however, subsidies increase year by year, and it has become a big burden on the government budget. the total cost of subsidies in 2010 was around us$ 5 million, and in 2015, the government spent us$46 million as subsidies (ministry of environment and energy, 2014b). maldives was among the highest cost of electricity generation in south asia3040 us$ cents per kwh in the larger islands, and even higher in the small remote islands (asian development bank, 2014). in the maldives, three companies provide electricity for the whole country. the state electric company private limited provides electricity to 13 islands (these 13 islands are referred to as greater malé regions), the fenaka cooperation supplies electricity to 149 islands around the country, and the maldives water sewerage company affords electricity to 1 island; it is mostly renewable energy. the remaining islands get electricity from a local powerhouse managed by the island council. according to the energy demand and supply report, there was an increase in energy consumption (mwh) of the greater malé regions and other atolls from 2010, 2011, and 2012. it indicated an increase in the growth rate of specific electricity consumption (kwh/capital) in greater malé regions from 4.13% in 2011 to 6.09% in 2012. besides, there was an increase in the estimated electricity consumption in other atolls from 2010 to 2012. the annual growth rate of electricity consumption was 21% (ministry of environment and energy, 2014a). for the maldives, going for renewable energy is not only a matter of protecting the environment but also for the country's physical and economic conditions. it is essential that the country must have stable electricity without depending on other countries. to prevent the complete black down of the country and to have a stable economy, the government is working on different policies and strategies. according to government policy 2015, the country gives importance to providing reliable and sustainable electricity service, and it aims to achieve 30 percent of the daytime peak load of electricity in all inhabited islands from renewable energy sources by 2020. in order to achieve these targets, the country implements different solar energy projects in different islands (ministry of environment and energy, 2016). the resorts are revolving into clean energy sources for its production. under different projects, seven islands have installed solar photovoltaic systems. they are dh kudahuvadhoo, g dh thiandhoo, villi male', hulhumale, v rakeedhoo, and a dh dhidhoo. besides, a resort named gas finolhu is a 100% clean energy resort, and other resorts produce some percentage of electricity using clean energy. the project named maldives climate change trust fund, which is supported by asian development bank (adb) clean energy for climate mitigation project was implemented in g dh (south huvadhoo) thinadhoo island, where 558wp solar pv system rukshana, darsono, & suphanchaimat household solar photovoltaic adoption in the maldives: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 187 was installed. the project produced an electricity supply of 300mwh annually from renewable energy and carbon emissions avoided of about 180 tco2 (amara, van der veen, & bloembergen, 2011). however, to become completely independent in solar energy for electricity production and reduce the electricity production cost, the country needs the population’s participation (ali, shafiullah, & urmee, 2018). it is essential to adopt solar energy at the household level to reduce the burden of electricity costs. to promote renewable energy (re), the government has launched a net metering regulation that privately produces renewable electricity energy, which can be connected to the utility power grids. the maldives bank has also introduced a green fund for clean energy initiatives (maldives energy authority, 2015). in this regard, being a tropical country, out of all re resources, solar energy is easily applicable. solar energy means energy created using sun radiation. solar electricity/power is produced by converting sunlight into electricity directly or indirectly using photovoltaics (pv) and concentrated solar power (csp). the electrification with solar energy, either pv or csp, increases with the increasing demand for renewable energy, which concerns the world climate. three percent of the world's electricity generation by 2019 was covered with photovoltaic energy (international energy agency, 2020). over the past decade, solar energy cost fell, and its installation would be less expensive for households. this cost reduction has greatly impacted encouraging residents to accept electricity using solar energy (mohandes, sanfilippo, & al fakhri, 2019; wong & cronin, 2019). installing solar electric technology in a household would lead the other neighborhoods following the same action due to the peer effects even across the municipalities (graziano, fiaschetti, & atkinson-palombo, 2019; lan, cheng, gou, & yu, 2020). demographic characteristics, such as education, age, and income, are the influential factors of the solar home system products’ awareness (urpelainen & yoon, 2015). further, wang, guan, and wu (2017) added geographic factors, household attributes, and respondents' perceptions and attitudes to predict the willingness to adopt and use solar energy decisions in households. they chose the study area in jiangxi province in china with an in-person interview with 1,000 random rural residents. using probit regression analysis, they found that willingness to adopt was more influenced by geographic factors and household attributes and that resident characteristics were associated more with the usage decisions. some subsequent studies documented similar results supporting these variables relationships. household head with higher education, higher income, positive attitude, younger age, wealthier, and being female, respectively, resulted in higher adoption of solar energy in household electricity (aklin, bayer, harish, & urpelainen, 2018; guta, 2018; kurata, matsui, ikemoto, & tsuboi, 2018; rahut, mottaleb, ali, & aryal, 2018). according to other studies on knowledge, attitude, and decision by o'brien (2007) and zyadin, puhakka, ahponen, cronberg, and pelkonen (2012), it is essential for improving people’s knowledge and school curriculum to accommodate the lessons of environmental literature and renewable energy. meanwhile, initiation and participation from the private sector and the public are also essential. rukshana, darsono, & suphanchaimat household solar photovoltaic adoption in the maldives: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 188 besides, evaluation of the drivers of solar energy adoption was extracted by wong and cronin (2019) into five general aspects classification. it included financial, social, technological, governmental, and environmental aspects. they compared the mean score of respondents' degrees of agreement on the drivers and outcomes of solar pv projects and then analyzed the data with entropy ranking analysis. their findings pointed financial and environmental as the most effective aspects in promoting the uptake of solar pv projects, despite previous studies suggesting that environmental values alone were neither enough nor always necessary to motivate solar electric technology adoption (schelly, 2014). governmental aspects were found to be less effective to stimulate solar energy adoption, although more discussions (inderberg, tews, & turner, 2018; parsad, mittal, & krishnankutty, 2020; qureshi, ullah, & arentsen, 2017), in contrast, have asserted that government had a strong impact through subsidies or energy policies to intensify solar energy investments. furthermore, pearce, markandya, and barbier (1989) introduced the blueprint for a green economy subject to sustainable development as a legacy for the future. they relied on the fundamental understanding that "the economy is not separate from the environment in which we live." this interdependence further will generate growth and sustainability, implicating the need for regulatory policies. besides, united nations environmental program (unep) has defined the green economy as "one that results in improved human well-being and social equity, while significantly reducing environmental risks and ecological scarcities" (unep, 2011). green economy nurtures countries' performances through renewable energy utilization while ensuring sustained live for the future generation. renewable energy usage still covers a small share of the total supply globally, although the number has been increasing. most of the increase will likely come from solar, wind, and hydropower (kusch-brandt, 2019). however, there is a dearth of literature on the determinants of household solar energy adoption acceptance in the maldives. the explicit statement of research objectives also covers existing research gaps and seeks solutions to phenomena that occur. if deemed necessary, it also explains the difference between this research and the previous one. since solar power usage becomes one that will increase on a global scale, this can be impactful for the maldives to which they adapt for renewable energy uptake. thus, people's attitudes become vital to exhibit the country's current position and readiness to accept solar energy. it is not a new thing in as much as sustainable development goals (sdgs) have got underway, involving the concern for renewable energy or green economy. sdgs’ implementation relies on people's awareness and knowledge that strongly relate to information accessibility, and the population inclusion can start through educational settings (annadurai, 2020; jati, darsono, hermawan, yudhi, & rahman, 2019). participation from the country's population is necessary because the users are not merely consumers but also successors and role models for others. besides, selfconsumption has been an essential market driver for the new distributed systems (kuschbrandt, 2019). it is impossible without knowing whether people are willing to accept it or not. therefore, the present study establishes an exploration of solar energy acceptance, specifically for household utilization in huvadhoo atoll, maldives. rukshana, darsono, & suphanchaimat household solar photovoltaic adoption in the maldives: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 189 research method this study used a quantitative research method to analyze the primary data from an online survey. it was conducted in south huvadhoo atoll in the maldives, where there are nine uninhabited islands with a population of 11,587, and the number of households was 2,186 (maldives bureau of statistics, 2014). the data were collected through an online survey in two months from june-july 2016. as a result, there were 119 respondents participated in the electronic survey. stratified random sampling method was employed due to the population’s division into nine different islands. moreover, it ensured that each island within the population received proper representation within the sample. the sample frame was the residence registration list of each island. the survey questionnaire consisted of dichotomous, and the likert scale type questions were utilized. the dichotomous type of question is where respondents have only two choices (yes or no) (akinwale, ogundari, illevbare, & adepoju, 2014) to determine whether they agree or disagree on a specific statement. the likert scale questions were formulated as three scale questions. the study aimed to find the respondents’ perception, not the degree of their perception. the questionnaire was made after key informant interviews with officers. the questionnaires were constructed in the google form and were distributed to these islands through the internet. the knowledge of solar energy was tested using 26 questions. the score was computed by adding all the "yes" answers given by the respondents. the sample was categorized into two classes named high level of knowledge and a low level of knowledge. the respondents who scored more than 13 (13/26) were categorized as having a high level of knowledge and vice versa. as for the question on attitude evaluation, the answers were scaled with three scales; agree, neutral, and disagree. if the respondent agrees with the matter, the score (2) is given, (0) for disagree, and (1) for neutral. a score of each question was computed by adding for all seven questions of each respondent. the highest score that could be obtained was 14 from 7 questions. the respondents that scored more than seven are classified as having a high level of attitude and vice versa. table 1 the variables used in binary regression variable type description of estimated variable expected sign of estimated variable y independent variable accept binary 0 not accept 1 accept dependent variable x1 prefer renewable energy source of energy binary 0 no + 1 yes x2 electricity bill binary 0 less than $50 + 1 more than $50 x3 attitude score ratio number + the electronic survey was purposively provided on nine islands for two months (junejuly). once the data were collected, the statistic package spss 20.0 was utilized to conduct descriptive statistics, chi-square test, and binary logistic regression, examining the factors influencing solar energy acceptance. the chi-square test is an association test. if the prukshana, darsono, & suphanchaimat household solar photovoltaic adoption in the maldives: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 190 value is less than 0.1, then the null hypothesis will be rejected, and the variables have an association with each other. it should be mentioned that although many different demographic and socioeconomic factors were examined, in the following analysis, only statistically significant results (p-value = 0.1) were taken into the regression model. the factors influencing solar energy adoption (y) in the maldives can be formulated by the following equation: y = β0 + β1 x1 + β2 x2 + β3 x3 + e information: y = acceptance of solar energy adoption x1 = sustainable energy preferences x2 = electricity bill x3 = attitude score result and discussion descriptive statistics one hundred nineteen people participated in the online questionnaire survey from nine islands, with 52.1% of the respondents being women. the respondents' average age was 37.11 years (median: 34, min: 20 max: 76). the majority of the respondents held a certificate or diploma (32.8%). as for occupation, 39.5% of the respondents were government officers. regarding the income, 26.1% of respondents got a salary higher than usd 800, followed by 25.2% of respondents who earn ed income between usd 401usd 600. the average income earned by the respondent was usd 575.5 per month. as per the question of whether the respondent was an environmentally concerned person or not, 60.5% of people stated that they were concerned about the environment (table 1). household electricity situation showed that 46.2 % of households shared the electricity bill, but the average household electricity condition was one house having more than one meter in the house. in terms of electricity bills, 38 .7 % of the households had bills under usd 50. average of respondent household was usd 90.6 (median: $67, min: $ 3, max: $1000). while 71.4 % of respondents stated that their electricity was stable, 84.9% of respondents were not satisfied with the electric ity prices. out of 119 respondents, 95% of people preferred to have a renewable energy source for electrification (table 1). a set of questions to examine the knowledge level was included in the questionnaire. the question was categorized into five sections testing the environment and economic benefit of solar energy, promotion carried out by the government, household gain, and national-level solar energy benefits. the questions were asked on a dichotomous scale (yes/no). computing up all the respondents' answers, a total score was generated, indicating that the respondents' average score was 16.5 rukshana, darsono, & suphanchaimat household solar photovoltaic adoption in the maldives: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 191 (median:17, min:6, max:26). furthermore, respondents who scored more than 13 were categorized as having a high knowledge level. 68.1% of respondents had high knowledge about solar energy (table 2). the questionnaire's attitude section dealt with government goals, solar for electricity, government promotion, and financial, technical, and social difficulties. a sum-up score was calculated based on three scales, which indicated that the respondent's average score was 7.16 (median:7, min:2, max:14). besides, 59.7% and 40.3% were classified a s high-level attitude and low-level attitude respondents, respectively (table 2). table 2 the general characteristics of the sample no general characters mean categories will you use solar energy? asymp. sig. (2-sided) no yes 1 age 37.11 years 35 below 7 61 ͣ 0.730 36-45 2 17 56 or above 5 27 2 sex female male 6 51 ͣ 0.688 female 8 54 3 education certificate/diploma no level 0 2 ͤ 0.879 primary 3 17 secondary 5 28 certificate/diploma 5 34 bachelor’s degree 1 18 master 0 6 4 occupation government officer non 3 15 ͤ 0.121 seasonal employment 1 7 government officer 2 45 employees (pvt sector) 6 20 own business 2 18 5 income us$575.5 low (less than $600) 10 56 ͤ 0.258 high (more than $600) 4 49 6 status of marriage marriage married 9 78 ͤ 0.400 divorced 1 6 widow 1 2 single 3 19 7 person concern of environment an environment concern person no/not much concern 6 41 ᵇ 1 concern 8 64 8 electricity conditions two or more meters in one house one meter (bill sharing) 7 48 ͤ 0.432 two or more meters in one house 1 24 one meter ( bill not sharing) 6 33 9 electricity bill us$90.6 less than $50 9 37 ͣ 0.036* more than$50 5 68 10 electricity stability sable no 2 32 ͣ 0.208 yes 12 73 11 the satisfaction of elct price not satisfied no 11 90 ͣ 0.484 yes 3 15 12 prefer a renewable source of energy prefer no 2 4 ͣ 0.092* yes 12 101 13 total score for knowledge 16.52 low level of knowledge 6 32 ͣ 0.351 high level of knowledge 8 73 14 the total score for attitude 7.16 low-level attitude 13 56 ͣ 0.005*** high-level attitude 1 49 total number of respondents 14 105 ͣ asymp. sig. (2-sided) pearson chi-square *significant at 90 %( 0.1) ᵇ asymp. sig. (2-sided) continuity correction **significant at 95% (0.05) ͤ exact sig. (2-sided) fisher's exact test ***significant at 99% (0.01) source: author, 2020 rukshana, darsono, & suphanchaimat household solar photovoltaic adoption in the maldives: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 192 the correlation of the attitude and knowledge rev ealed a weak and low relationship (0.21 < |r| ≤ 0.40) (table 3). table 3 the correlations between knowledge and attitude (spearman's rho) attitude score knowledge score attitude score correlation coefficient 1 .226** sig. (1-tailed) . 0.007 n 119 119 knowledge score correlation coefficient .226** 1 sig. (1-tailed) 0.007 . n 119 119 **. correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (1-tailed). source: author, 2020 according to respondents, 88.2% were ready to accept solar ene rgy, and 11.8% were not interested in solar energy. a high percentage of people representing the south huvadhoo atoll in the study specified that they accepted solar energy. factor influencing peoples' acceptances of solar energy in order to identify the factors influencing solar energy acceptance at first, the chi square tests were done to identify the variable, which had an association with the decision to use solar energy. the variables being examined were age, gender, education, occupation, income level, status marriage, a person of concern, electricity condition, electricity bill, electricity stability, electricity price satisfaction, preferable energy, attitude score, and education score. the cross-tabulation and the association test showed that ou t of 14 variables, only three variables were significant; they were preference for renewable energy, electricity bill, and attitude score (table 4.). these three variables were tested in the binary logistic regression to determine their effects. even thoug h the chi-square test indicated significance and an association between preference for renewable energy and solar energy acceptance, it was not significant in the logistic regression mod el. the classification table presents that overall accuracy ratios w ere 88.2%. in the omnibus tests of model coefficients, chi-square was significant (χ² (4) =18.479, p =0.000). in the model summary table, -2 log-likelihood was 67.727, cox & snell r square was 0.144, and nagelkerke r square was 0.279, indicating the model or predictors exploring variations about 14.4 to 27.9%. the other classification table displays accuracy of 89.1%. these indicated that the model was a good fit for the prediction. rukshana, darsono, & suphanchaimat household solar photovoltaic adoption in the maldives: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 193 table 4 factors influencing the solar pv adoption using binary logistic regression b s.e. wald df sig. exp(b) 95% c.i. for exp(b) lower upper sustainable energy preferences .876 1.007 .757 1 .384 2.402 .334 17.294 electricity bill 1.522 .676 5.071 1 .024 4.582 1.218 17.233 attitude score .520 .181 8.220 1 .004 1.683 1.179 2.401 constant 2.676 1.374 3.795 1 .051 .069 a. variable(s) entered on step 1: prefer re, electricity bill, attitude score. a binary logistic regression analysis was per formed to predict the factors for solar energy acceptance. the outcome variable was coded 0= no (not accept) and 1= yes (accept). the three-predictor variable of 119 data cases was included in this analysis. table 4.30 summarizes the raw score binary logis tic regression coefficient, wald statistics, and estimated changes in odd of acceptance along with 95% ci. the wald ratio for the coefficient associated with preference to sustainable energy, electri city bill, and attitude scores were statistically signifi cant at 90%, χ² (1) = 0.757, p<0.384. , χ² (1) =5.071, p= 0.024, and χ² (1) =8.220, p=0.004, respectively. the regression analysis indicated that there was a positive relationship between attitude score and solar energy acceptance. a respondent with a hi gh score in attitude was about 0.683 times more likely to accept solar energy. in other words, by controlling for all other variables in the model, a one -mark increase in the attitude score increased the odds of accepting solar by 68.3%. the 75% ci for exp (b) ranged from 1.175 to 2.401. likewise, the electricity bill had a positive relationship with the acceptance rate. an increase in the electricity bill had a likelihood of an increase in the acceptance of solar energy. a 1 ud$ increased in the electricity bill while controlling all other variables in the model would increase the odds of accepting solar by a factor of 4.582. (95 % ci = 1.218 to 17.233). on the other hand, sustainable energy preference was not significant with solar energy acceptance accordi ng to the binary regression model. discussion the logistic regression analysis result confirmed two factors influencing solar energy acceptance. first of all, the study indicated that the attitude score influenced solar energy acceptance. the attitude score was calculated through a series of questions. if the respondent felt that the maldives' government would achieve 30% of energy from renewable energy by 2020, and solar energy could produce elect ricity, he/she was more likely to accept solar energy. on the contrary, if the respondent did not feel that the government was promoting solar energy and was not good for producing electricity, the respondent would more likely not accept solar energy. like wise, if the respondent felt that it was difficult to get the financial, technical, and social support to invest in solar energy, the attitude towards solar energy usage would be negative, or people were more likely to reject solar energy. these findings a re similar to aklin rukshana, darsono, & suphanchaimat household solar photovoltaic adoption in the maldives: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 194 et al. (2018) that positive attitudes encouraged people in rural india to adopt solar power. the chance for adoption could increase if households felt more convinced about the benefits, and the government played a role in supporting it. similarly, parsad et al. (2020) found that government subsidies were the primary motivator for india's solar household adoption. it is because the investment in the new technology has an initial risk; thus, the government roles are essential within the ri sk-return framework. from the correlation test, it was expressed that there was a correlation between knowledge and attitude, but it was weak and low. similarly, a study in yemen (baharoon, rahman, & fadhl, 2016) disclosed that pupils of the urban and rural areas had a high positive attitude towards renewable energy, while their knowledge level was moderate. even though the relationship was weak, the conclusions could be made that if the respondents knew more about solar energy and its promotion activities in the country, they would be more willing to accept solar energy. further, a study was done in korea (jho, yoon, & kim, 2014), concluded that attitude had some degree of connection to decision making, while science knowledge was not significant to decision making. the result can be interpreted that even though people have the knowledge, they are reluctant to have a positive attitude based on other factors. it may be due to the government policies and the trust they have in the government projects. besides, research carried out in nigeria (akinwale et al., 2014) implicated that most of the respondents agreed to adopt renewable energy if the government included peoples at the beginning of such projects. to get the public's participation, awareness and knowledge should be dispensed to the public. in this case, the people participating in the development projects were also low in the maldives. the electricity bill of the household influenced the acceptance of se. the study exhibited that the average electricity bill of the respondent household was 90.61usd. the effect of change in electricity bill was high in the respondent's decision. an increase in the bill of electricity would lead the respondents to consider going for solar energy. similar to this finding, mohandes et al . (2019) suggested that higher electricity tariffs would vigorously promote residential solar pv adoption in qatar. the consequence of this higher tariff is a reduction in pv costs, presented in three scenarios. further, in italy, an analysis done througho ut 2012-2014 demonstrated a decrease in people's intention towards solar energy, which had a high effect than the solar pv system cost (cucchiella & d'adamo, 2015). besides that, a study was conducted in malaysia (solangi, badarudin, kazi, lwin, & aman, 2 013), which exposed that respondents were reluctant to pay the amount increase in the electricity bill due to the use of solar energy rather than fossil fuel where they had the fossil fuel resources available. however, in the case of maldives, the cost red uction alternative source for electricity was solar energy. therefore, an increase in spending on non renewable electricity sources would lead the people to accept solar energy. rukshana, darsono, & suphanchaimat household solar photovoltaic adoption in the maldives: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 195 conclusion the main objective of the study was to discover factors influencing solar energy acceptance. the analysis was based on current geo-social factors, knowledge, and attitude. from the data received through the purposely distributed electronic survey, it could be implied that south huvadhoo atoll could be classified as young, educated, and working-class people since respondents' average age was 37 years, with an average education level held certificate or diploma and most of them worked as a government officer. the logistic regression model performed on this sample exposed that attitude level and electricity bill significantly influenced the people's decision to accept solar energy. among those two, the attitude displayed a vital role in solar energy acceptance. habitually attitude and knowledge had a good positive relationship. if the person had knowledge in a specific subject, he/she would have a positive attitude towards the subject matter, keeping other factors aside. however, in this case, relationships and attitudes had a low association. the reason for this would be affected by other factors, like a trust for government and culture and habits of the maldives’ islander. the people’s participation was low in the maldives. the people's mentality was that the government should provide everything to improve people’s well-being. furthermore, the study directed that the electricity bill had a noticeable degree of effects on the respondents' acceptance of solar energy. if the current electricity scenario keeps increasing the electricity bill, the people would think of alternative sustainable electrification systems. the study result could be used as a guide for policymakers and further study on se. there is a need to include solar energy lessons in the school curriculum and public media. in order to increase participation in the solar energy sector, the private sector has to be involved, and the investment scheme system has to be introduced. it will increase competition in the solar energy market. it will be beneficial rather than monopolizing the energy or electricity sector. besides, the correct and easily accessible information system needs to be built. human development programs should be framed to minimize the difficulties of finding technical experts in the solar energy area. the maldives have to reform more lenient its legislation and regulations. finally, a careful assessment of societal needs in the areas where solar energy projects are envisioned to be established. references adb. 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(2012). school students' knowledge, perceptions, and attitudes toward renewable energy in jordan. renewable energy, 45(september), 78–85. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2012.02.002 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2012.02.002 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 22 nomor 2, oktober 2021 article type: research paper the role of foreign tourists in economic growth: evidence from indonesia muhammad azizurrohman*1, romi bhakti hartarto2, yih-ming lin3, and faiza husnayeni nahar2 abstract: foreign tourism is indicated as one of the important instruments to encourage economic growth in several countries, including indonesia. however, some studies only focus on the influence of tourist arrivals. thus, the main objective of this study is to take a deeper look at the contribution of foreign tourism indicators to economic growth in indonesia. using panel data analysis from 33 countries between 2006 and 2016, this study applies three models: pooled least square (pls), fixed effect model (fem), and random effect model (fem). based on the fixed-effect model, this study reveals that foreign tourist arrivals have a significant and positive effect on economic growth. however, other tourism indicators such as length of stay and expenditure of foreign tourists appear to have no contribution to economic growth. from these findings, it can be implied that the indonesian government should not only attract more tourists to come but also design strategies to encourage tourists to spend more money and stay longer. this study also finds that depreciation of indonesian currency and visa-free policies have a significant contribution to higher economic growth. keywords: tourist arrival; economic growth; visa-free; exchange rate jel classification: l83; o11; z32; z38 introduction it has been more than decades that tourism has been considered as an important element to boost the economic growth of the countries, particularly in the developing countries, including indonesia (savaş et al., 2010). the tourism industry becomes increasingly significant for the indonesian economy nowadays. specifically, it has generated us$ 14.11 billion in foreign exchange until 2018 (statistics indonesia, 2020). it comes from the flights, hotels, restaurants, and products from micro, small, and medium enterprises that are all the sources of foreign exchange revenues for tourism (msmes) (sulasmiyati, 2019). this industry also employs a large number of people, supporting the local economies. the indonesian government predicted that foreign tourists would contribute to 20 million visits per year, out of a total foreign exchange of us$ 17.6 billion (sulasmiyati, 2019). nonetheless, the contribution of tourism to gdp has remained stable at roughly 4% per year from 2015 to 2017 (statistics indonesia, 2018). affiliation: 1 department of tourism, sekolah tinggi pariwisata mataram, west nusa tenggara, indonesia 2 department of economics, faculty of economics and business, universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta, special region of yogyakarta, indonesia 3 department of applied economics, national chiayi university, taiwan (r.o.c.) *correspondence: m.azizur96@gmail.com this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v22i2.11591 citation: azizurrohman, m., hartarto, r.b., lin, y-m., nahar, f.h. (2021). the role of foreign tourists in economic growth: evidence from indonesia. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 22(2), 313-322. article history received: 25 apr 2021 revised: 15 aug 2021 27 sep 2021 accepted: 01 oct 2021 https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=vaypbw4aaaaj&hl=en https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?user=bp-4i4waaaaj&hl=en https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorid=37077347500 https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=f2fai-qaaaaj&hl=en https://www.stpmataram.ac.id/sarjana-pariwisata-s1 https://www.stpmataram.ac.id/sarjana-pariwisata-s1 https://www.stpmataram.ac.id/sarjana-pariwisata-s1 https://economics-feb.umy.ac.id/ https://economics-feb.umy.ac.id/ https://economics-feb.umy.ac.id/ https://economics-feb.umy.ac.id/ https://economics-feb.umy.ac.id/ http://www.ncyu.edu.tw/dpae_eng/ http://www.ncyu.edu.tw/dpae_eng/ http://www.ncyu.edu.tw/dpae_eng/ mailto:m.azizur96@gmail.com http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/11591 https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v22i1.11591&domain=pdf azizurrohman, hartarto, lin, & nahar the role of foreign tourists in economic growth: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 314 the benefit of being host countries would be plenty enough to achieve rapid economic development as well (pompili et al., 2019). however, the development of the tourism industry potentially has effects on the economy such as increased consumption of goods and services as well as job vacancies. if the government cannot formulate the best strategy to promote indonesia, it may hurt tourism and economic development (mariyono, 2017). thus, understanding the contribution of international tourism arrivals toward economic growth is important. many studies reveal that the main factors playing a role in tourism development include transportation capacity, an extension of paid vacation duration, and improvement in communication technology (akin aksu & aktaş, 2005). to find out the relationship between tourism and economic growth, the advantages and disadvantages of tourism growth should be taken into account (sinclair, 1998). tourism potentially increases the supply of currency, which in turn can reduce the foreign exchange gaps and increase personal income and taxes. in addition, international tourism contributes to the national income through increased productivity, the competitiveness of local and national business units, absorption of new workers, and increased demand for goods and services (gaspar, 2020; sakyi & egyir, 2017). on the other hand, tourists can cause environmental damage such as an increasing amount of waste and pollution. as a result, this harms local communities and the sustainability of tourism in the future. in addition, tourism activities can damage the culture of local communities along with intense tourist activities (schneider, 1993). due to the importance of tourism to the economy, many researchers have attempted to analyze its contribution in recent decades. it has been found in portugal that a 1% increase in the tourism sector infrastructure led to a 0.01% increase in per capita income (soukiazis & proença (2007). the analysis further was extended into the specialization of country tourism and its role in economic growth, concluding that countries with abundant natural resources gain comparative advantage in tourism and develop more rapidly than countries specializing in manufacturing (figini & vici, 2010). furthermore, chiu and yeh (2016) analyzed the empirical correlation between economic growth, country size, and tourism. they found that countries relying on tourism are growing faster. they also found that small countries with strong tourism industries will develop rapidly. fayissa et al. (2008) investigated the contribution of the tourism industry to african economic growth and development. by applying panel data from 42 african countries over 10 years, they found that tourism revenue has a significant and positive contribution to the current level of national income. over 15 years, samimi et al. (2013) investigated the causal and longterm relationship between tourism and economic growth in developing countries. their results show that tourism creation and economic growth have a long-term positive relationship. in contrast to most studies of tourism, figini et al. (2018) showed that tourism specialization is not a panacea for resolving development and growth issues. their empirical evidence suggested that, on average, countries that depend on tourism do not develop substantially different from other countries. moreover, oh (2005) looked into the long-term relationship between tourism industry's development and south korea's national output. they concluded that tourism and economic growth have no long-term relationship. although many studies discuss tourism and economic growth as mentioned, azizurrohman, hartarto, lin, & nahar the role of foreign tourists in economic growth: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 315 they only measured foreign tourists based on the number of arrivals. this study added other aspects of tourist arrivals such as tourist spending and length of stay to the existing literature. the inclusion of these variables is expected to add to the existing literature that has never addressed this concern. research method in this study, to evaluate whether foreign tourist arrivals lead to an increase in gdp, we use quantitative analysis with secondary data to estimate the effect. specifically, we use panel data from 33 countries of tourists’ origin over 10 years, from 2006 to 2016, to examine the effect of international tourism on economic growth in indonesia. table 1 presents a list of countries being used in this study. data in this study were taken from various sources. for example, the gross domestic product (gdp) and exchange rate of idr/usd data were retrieved from the world bank. tourism-related data such as tourist arrivals, length of stay, and tourist expenditures were obtained from statistics indonesia, while a list of countries exempted from entry visa is based on the indonesian immigration office. table 1 origin countries of tourists brunei darussalam india china sweden norway malaysia japan australia france finland philippines south korea new zealand spain switzerland singapore pakistan usa netherland united kingdom thailand bangladesh canada italy russia vietnam sri lanka austria germany belgium hong kong denmark taiwan a generic standard model in the following form is used to analyze the impact of tourism on economic growth. 𝐿𝑜𝑔𝐺𝐷𝑃𝑖𝑡 = 𝛽0 + 𝐿𝑜𝑔𝛽1𝐼𝑇𝐴1𝑖𝑡 + 𝐿𝑜𝑔𝛽2𝐼𝑇𝐸2𝑖𝑡 + 𝐿𝑜𝑔𝛽3𝐿𝑆3𝑖𝑡 + 𝐿𝑜𝑔𝛽4𝐸𝑥𝑖𝑛𝑑4𝑖𝑡 + 𝛽5𝐹𝑉5𝑖𝑡 + 𝜀𝑖𝑡 where: 𝐿𝑜𝑔𝐺𝐷𝑃𝑖𝑡 = economic growth (real gdp) 𝐿𝑜𝑔𝛽1𝐼𝑇𝐴1𝑖𝑡 = international tourist arrival (people) 𝐿𝑜𝑔𝛽2𝐼𝑇𝐸2𝑖𝑡 = international tourist expenditure (idr) 𝐿𝑜𝑔𝛽3𝐿𝑆3𝑖𝑡 = international tourist length of stay (days) 𝐿𝑜𝑔𝛽4𝐸𝑥𝑖𝑛𝑑4𝑖𝑡 = exchange rate of indonesia (us$) 𝛽5𝐹𝑉5𝑖𝑡 = dummy countries of visa-free entry (1 = visa-free, 0 = otherwise) 𝜀𝑖𝑡 = stochastic error terms 𝛽0 = constant to quantify the relative influence and elasticity of tourism on indonesian economic growth, all data except free visa are converted to logarithmic values. the independent variables were chosen based on previous research. as the main independent variable, the azizurrohman, hartarto, lin, & nahar the role of foreign tourists in economic growth: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 316 number of tourist arrivals is the best indicator to measure tourism activities (uguz, 2017). in addition to the main independent variable, we consider other tourism variables such as length of stay and expenditure level of foreign tourists. the length of stay of foreign tourists is considered as one important determinant of economic growth in the destination countries (pompili et al., 2019). more length of stay of foreign visitors would create a lot of benefits to host countries through more spending, and this could generate income for the host countries. an increase in the length of stay of tourists would also have an impact on increasing the earnings of accommodation service providers and would indirectly affect the improvement of the national economy (fadhila & rahmini, 2019). moreover, tourists’ expenditure and economic growth are inextricably linked. tourism opens up new methods to trade with the rest of the world. it is a multi-sector industry that contributes significantly to socio-economic development. because employment aids in poverty reduction or increases the poor’s purchasing power, tourist development has a favorable impact on economic growth (al-hallaq et al., 2019; lee & chang, 2008). as control variables, we use the indonesian exchange rate against usd and visa facilities in the regression equation. since international tourism is a part of international trade, the weakening indonesian currency may enhance tourism activities through an increase in tourists’ consumption capacities (schnabl, 2008). in terms of visa-free, residents of a country are more likely to visit a destination country that provides convenience through a free entry policy (mariyono, 2017). kuzey et al. (2019) explained that applying for a visa requires a fairly long and complicated process. thus, it can affect the decision of potential tourists to come to a country. a visa-free would also increase bilateral trade and foreign investment, which in turn leads to higher economic growth (czaika & neumayer, 2017). furthermore, three different strategies were utilized to estimate the panel regression model as described. first, the pooled least squares (pls) model is employed based on assumption that the intercepts and coefficients are constant over time and across individuals, and statistical noise captures disturbances over time and cross-section. second, the fixed effects model (fem), commonly known as the least-squares dummy variable (lsdv) model, calculates the intercept using dummy variables as coefficients. this model accounts for the individual effect by allowing the intercept to vary for each cross-section. third, rather than treating the intercepts as fixed constants, the random effects model (rem) interprets them as random variables. the intercepts are assumed to be independent of the error term and also mutually independent. in selecting the best model, we performed a series of tests, namely chow test, lagrange multiplier test, and hausman test. according to burlig et al. (2020), the chow-test aims to compare and choose a model between pooled least square and fixed effect models. if the chi-square probability value is more than 5%, pooled least square (pls) will be selected as the model. meanwhile, if the fixed effects model (fem) is selected, the test will be continued to the hausman test. the hausman test is carried out to compare which model is better between fixed effects model and random effects model. if the p-value is more than 5%, then the random effect is selected as the model since it will give consistent and efficient estimators. furthermore, azizurrohman, hartarto, lin, & nahar the role of foreign tourists in economic growth: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 317 in comparing between random effects and pls, a lagrange multiplier test is required. if the p-value is more than 5%, then the pls is the better one. result and discussion after combining all the variables within 10 years, this paper also tested the validity of the data. this test is carried out to check whether the data can be processed further. then, the best model among others is selected. table 2 depicts the details of each variable regarding the mean, standard deviation, minimum and maximum number. in addition, since the free-visa policy is a dummy variable, the details were not included. table 2 descriptive statistic variables mean std. dev min max log gdp 5,58 0,59 4,63 6,35 log tourist arrivals 220,894 346,019 5,330 1,594,102 log tourist expenditures 563 655,88 24,44 2,151 log length of stay 10 3,64 4 20 visa policy (dummy) 0 1 log exchange rate 10,423 1613,41 8,770 13,389 table 3 presents the estimation results from pls, fixed effects, and random effects. the results obtained from the three procedures were quite similar, while the fixed effects model was selected among the three after a series of tests (chow test, lm test, and hausman test). table 3 panel data estimations variables pls fe re log tourist arrivals 0.006 0.364*** 0.006 (0.005) (0.046) (0.006) log tourist expenditures -0.005 -0.002 -0.005 (0.005) (0.004) (0.005) log length of stay -0.013 -0.001 -0.013* (0.008) (0.008) (0.006) log exchange rate of indonesia -0.072*** -0.035*** -0.072*** (0.013) (0.005) (0.001) visa policy 0.132*** 0.112*** 0.132*** (0.019) (0.022) (0.025) constant 27.500 23.375*** 27.500*** (0.081) (0.022) (0.076) r-square 0.230 0.039 0.230 observations 352 352 352 chow test 0.000 hausman test (chi2) 181.39*** lagrange multiplier (prob-chibar2) 1.000*** ***, **, * denotes significance at 1% level, 5% level, 10% level, respectively azizurrohman, hartarto, lin, & nahar the role of foreign tourists in economic growth: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 318 as a main independent variable, it seems that foreign tourist arrival has a positive and significant association with economic growth. specifically, a 1 percent increase in the foreign tourist arrivals is expected to increase gdp growth by 0.36 percentage points as seen in the fixed-effect model. this result is in line with a previous study in turkey (akan et al., 2007) which reveals that tourist arrivals are indirectly significant to the economic growth of the destination country through tourist consumption, and increased labor absorption. on the other hand, tourists’ spending and length of stay appear to not have any significant association. this might be due to the unusual behavior of foreign tourists in indonesia. they only come in huge numbers but do not spend more or stay longer. in particular, the average length of stay of foreign tourists in indonesia is only 8 days with quite widespread standard deviations. the countries with the longest duration of stay are russia and pakistan with a length of stay of 19 days, while the country that contributes as the second largest number of foreign tourists in indonesia is the country with the shortest duration of stay, only 3 days, which is singapore. as a result, it has no significant effect on economic growth. this behavior can be attributed to the lack of complementary attractions in a place according to garcía-sánchez et al. (2013). moreover, garcía-sánchez et al. (2013) suggest that tourism activities play a significant role in increasing tourists' daily spending. the majority of tourists' daily costs are spent on golf, gambling, athletic events, and gourmet activities, while visiting amusement parks, water sports, and cultural trips had a smaller influence despite rising daily spending. these findings are extremely important to tourism destination administrators. so far, indonesia only relies on natural beauty rather than creating new tourist attractions such as amusement parks, international events, shopping centers, and many other attractions as complementary attractions in the main destination. nevertheless, tourism activities that rely on nature cannot optimize the income generation of tourists (ollivaud & haxton, 2019). furthermore, the indonesian exchange rate variable appears to be in line as hypothesized. an increase (appreciation) of the idr currency by 1 percent against usd leads to lower economic growth by 0.035 percentage points. generally, tourists will consider the exchange rate when choosing their destination country (samirkaş & samirkaş, 2016). countries that have a relatively weaker currency tend to attract more tourists since it is relatively cheaper to visit the countries and make the purchasing power of tourists stronger. exchange rate volatility is critical for tourism sector development since it has a direct impact on foreign tourist arrivals (jena & dash, 2020). exchange rate fluctuation makes visitor arrivals less enticing because it influences tourists' decisions to travel to the destination country (jena & dash, 2020). this is held not only for individual passengers who change their vacation plans but also for tour operators who view currency volatility as a risk factor in their business (jena & dash, 2020). as a result, they may send travelers to other destinations where the exchange rate is more stable (jena & dash, 2020). in terms of micro aspect, exchange rate will affect more income for communities and travel service providers, for example, in terms of the enhancement of tourists’ purchasing power; hence, the economic growth will be higher (adha et al., 2018). therefore, the azizurrohman, hartarto, lin, & nahar the role of foreign tourists in economic growth: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 319 appreciation of currency in the destination country may lower the economic growth through a decrease in tourist arrivals and their consumption of goods and services. finally, a visa-free policy seems to have a positive and significant effect on economic growth. countries that have a visa-free entry tend to have tourists entering indonesia by 11.2% higher than those that do not. this is similar to the case in the united states where the largest increase in tourist arrivals comes from travelers with visa-free programs (neiman & swagel, 2009). in the case of hong kong, during the outbreak of acute respiratory syndrome (sars), the hong kong government launched a free-visa policy for foreigners, which increased foreign tourist arrivals, especially from mainland china, taiwan, and japan (cheng, 2012). therefore, it can be concluded that visa exemption has a positive impact on business trips and vacations which in turn increases the economic growth in the destination country (li & song, 2013). for robustness check, we use a dynamic panel data model to examine whether foreign tourist activities influence economic growth in different specifications. we account for the lagged variable of gdp as our control variable. table 3 presents the results. it appears that tourist arrivals are no longer explaining economic growth. the inclusion of lagged variable of gdp has made tourist arrivals lose their significance. it seems that the economic growth is better explained by the growth in the previous period rather than foreign tourism activities. table 3 robustness check variables pls fe re log tourist arrivals 0.000 0.000 0.000 (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) log gdpt-1 0.986*** 0.988*** 0.986*** (0.001) (0.001) (0.000) log tourist expenditures -0.000** -0.000** -0.000** (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) log length of stay -0.196 -0.000 -1.96 (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) log exchange rate of indonesia 0.005*** 0.005*** 0.001*** (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) visa policy -0.001*** -0.003*** -0.001*** (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) constant 0.360*** 0.360*** 0.421*** (0.035) (0.035) (0.020) r-square 0.996 0.999 0.999 observations 320 320 320 chow test 0.000 hausman test (chi2) 23.24*** lagrange multiplier (prob-chibar2) 1.000*** ***, **, * denotes significance at 1% level, 5% level, 10% level, respectively azizurrohman, hartarto, lin, & nahar the role of foreign tourists in economic growth: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 320 conclusion as one of indonesia's main sources of income, the government has taken several strategies to increase tourism sector revenues. however, it seems that the government only focuses on increasing the number of foreign tourists, while there are no empirical studies that emphasize its link with economic growth in the context of indonesia. thus, the motivation of this research is to analyze the association between foreign tourism activities and economic growth. we conducted a series of regression models using panel data from 2006-2016 that links tourism-related variables and economic growth in the context of indonesia. after running a series of tests, the fixed effects models are selected and show a positive and statistically significant relationship between foreign tourist arrivals and economic growth in indonesia. however, tourists’ spending and length of stay appear to have no statistical effect on indonesia's economic growth. these results may imply that the government should not only attract more tourists to come but also design policies to encourage foreign tourists to spend more money and stay longer such as by building complementary attractions and facilities in addition to the main destination. in addition, the indonesian government should target the country of tourists’ origin with higher income to enhance tourists’ spending in indonesia. furthermore, this research can be extended to reveal factors that determine the length of stay and expenditure of foreign tourists in indonesia. references adha, m., nahar, f., & azizurrohman, m. 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dan ekonomi bagi masyarakat di desa wisata nglanggeran, patuk, gunung kidul ismi atikah jamalina, dyah titis kusuma wardani fakultas ekonomi universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta jl. lingkar selatan, tamantirto, kasihan, bantul daerah istimewa yogyakarta 55184 email korespondensi: ismiatikah6@gmail.com naskah diterima: januari 2017; disetujui: april 2017 abstract: this study aims to determine the socio-economic benefits of cbt concept application, as well as the extent to which the successful implementation of community based tourism (cbt) concept in nglanggeran tourism village and what are the strategies needed for the development of nglanggeran tourism village. data collection techniques using literature study and interview respondents in nglanggeran. based on the level of achievement of all the indicators above, it can be said that the application of the concept of community based tourism has been successfully developed in nglanggeran tourism village, kecamatan patuk, kabupaten gunung kidul. the biggest obstacle factor is derived from the price factor, place, human resources, place and promotion. tourism development strategy is done by overcoming the existing obstacle factors. kata kunci: community based tourism, tourism village jel classification: z32, z33, z38 abstrak: penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui manfaat sosial ekonomi dari penerapan konsep cbt, serta sejauh mana keberhasilan penerapan konsep community based tourism (cbt) pada desa wisata nglanggeran dan apa saja strategi yang diperlukan untuk pengembangan kawasan desa wisata nglanggeran. teknik pengumpulan data menggunakan studi literatur dan wawancara responden di nglanggeran. berdasarkan tingkat ketercapaian seluruh indikator diatas, dapat dikatakan bahwa penerapan konsep community based tourism telah berhasil dikembangkan pada desa wisata nglanggeran, kecamatan patuk, kabupaten gunung kidul. faktor penghambat terbesar berasal dari faktor sebagai berikut berasal dari faktor harga, tempat, sumber daya manusia, tempat dan promosi. strategi pengembangan pariwisata dilakukan dengan mengatasi factor hambatan yang ada. keywords: pariwisata berbasis masyarakat, desa wisata klasifikasi jel: z32, z33, z38 mailto:ismiatikah6@gmail.com 72 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 1, april 2017: 71-85 pendahuluan pariwisata merupakan sektor yang paling dinamis di berbagai negara. terutama di negara-negara berkembang, pariwisata merupakan salah satu sektor terbesar penyumbang devisa negara. dalam peraturan undang-undang no.10 tahun 2009 tentang kepariwisataan pasal 4 menyatakan bahwa pariwisata bertujuan untuk meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi, kesejahteraan masyarakat, menghapus kemiskinan, mengatasi pengangguran, melestarikan alam dan sumber daya, dan memajukan kebudayaan. sektor pariwisata diharapkan dapat menghasilkan multiplier effect yang tinggi dalam perekonomian melebihi sektor-sektor unggulan lain. disamping dampak-dampak positif tersebut, sektor pariwisata juga mempunyai sisi lain yang sifatnya negatif. seperti tingginya kesenjangan antara pendapatan masyarakat yang tinggal dekat dengan daerah tujuan wisata (dtw) dan yang berada jauh dari daerah tujuan wisata (dtw), hilangnya kontrol masyarakat terhadap sumberdaya ekonomi, dan sebagainya. adanya dampak negatif yang terjadi karena adanya pengembangan sektor pariwisata mendorong semua pihak untuk memiliki kepedulian terhadap pengembangan sektor pariwisata yang lebih terkonsep. kesadaran ini yang mendorong pemerintah mencari konsep pengembangan wisata baru yang berorientasi pada nilai-nilai pelestarian lingkungan dan budaya masyarakat, termasuk didalamnya memberikan keuntungan jangka panjang, maka konsep pariwisata berbasis masyarakat (community based tourism) diharapkan menjadi solusi dalam permasalahan ini. keterlibatan langsung masyarakat dalam pengelolaan, dan pengembangan daerah tujuan wisata (dtw) diharapkan akan menjadi lahan yang mampu menyerap lapangan kerja serta peningkatan pendapatan masyarakat serta diharapkan mampu mengentaskan kemiskinan. daerah istimewa yogyakarta merupakan salah satu provinsi yang memiliki jumlah kunjungan wisatawan terbanyak sejak 5 tahun terakhir. diy selalu berupaya mengembangkan berbagai potensi yang ada demi mencapai target sebagai daerah tujuan wisata utama di jawa tengah. salah satu kabupaten yang sedang gencar mempromosikan pariwisatanya adalah kabupaten gunung kidul. kabupaten ini merupakan daerah yang wilayahnya paling luas diantara 5 kabupaten yang ada di di yogyakarta, namun berpendapatan paling rendah dan tergolong tertinggal. gunung kidul dikenal sebagi daerah yang tandus dengan lahan yang didominasi perbukitan kapur. namun disisi lain gunung kidul dianugrahi sumberdaya alam yang luar biasa berupa kenampakan alam yang tidak dimiliki daerah lain. wisata yang ditawarkan di kabupaten ini sangatlah beragam, mulai dari wisata alam, wisata bahari, dan wisata budaya. kabupaten gunung kidul mempunyai slogan handayani yang merupakan singkatan dari (hijau – aman – normatif – dinamis – yakin – asah asih asuh – nilai tambah – indah) mulai menata diri dan mempromosikan daerahnya lewat berbagai objek wisata yang kebanyakan merupakan wisata berbasis alam. gunung kidul mendapatkan predikat sebagai daerah salah satu daerah pariwisata terpopuler di indonesia yang mampu memberikan kontribusi terhadap pendapatan daerah. berikut merupakan data jumlah kunjungan wisatawan yang berkunjung ke gunung kidul dalam kurun waktu 5 tahun terakhir. tabel 1. jumlah kunjungan wisatawan ke kabupaten gunung kidul pada tahun 2011-2015 tahun wisatawan (orang) total (orang) mancanegara (orang) domestik (orang) 2011 1299 615397 616696 2012 1800 998587 1000387 2013 3751 1333687 1337438 2014 3060 1952757 1955817 2015 4125 2638634 2642759 sumber: dinas kebudayaan dan pariwisata gunung kidul strategi pengembangan ekowisata melalui konsep… (jamalina, i.a., wardani, d.) 73 dari data yang disajikan dalam tabel 1 jumlah kunjungan wisatawan yang berkunjung ke obejek-objek wisata yang ada di gunung kidul dari tahun ke tahun terus mengalami peningkatan. pada tahun 2011 total kunjungan wisatawan adalah 616.696 wisatawan kemudian mengalami peningkatan lebih dari 4 kali lipat dalam kurun waktu 5 tahun, yaitu sebanyak 2.642.759 wisatawan. hal ini mengindikasikan bahwa minat wisatawan untuk berkunjung ke gunung kidul terus mengalami peningkatan. salah satu destinasi wisata yang sedang diminati banyak wisatawan berkunjung ke gunung kidul adalah di desa wisata nglanggeran yang terletak di kawasan baturagung bagian utara kabupaten gunung kidul. desa wisata nglanggeran menawarkan paket lengkap sebuah perjalanan wisata meliputi educational tourism, cultural tourism, adventure tourism, agro tourism, dan green tourism yang dikemas secara menarik oleh pihak pengelola, dalam hal ini masyarakat setempat dengan memanfaatkan daya tarik 3 destinasi unggulannya yaitu, gunung api purba, embung nglanggeran dan air terjun kedung kandang. desa wisata nglangeran ini merupakan aset yang sangat potensial untuk dikembangkan guna meningkatkan pendapatan daerah dan pendapatan masyarakat sekitar. berikut adalah data dari total kunjungan wisatawan dari tahun 2007 2015 yang disajikan dalam sebuah grafik. sumber: pengelola ekowisata ngalanggeran grafik 1. grafik total kunjungan wisatawan pada gambar 2 jelas terlihat peningkatan jumlah kunjungan wisatawan sejak tahun 2007– 2014 kemudian menunjukkan grafik menurun di tahun 2015. dalam pengembangan destinasi wisata, terdapat beberapa masalah utama yang harus dihadapi, diantaranya perubahan iklim dan bencana alam, pemberdayaan masyarakat di daerah destinasi, kualitas sdm, serta iklim usaha yang tidak kondusif. dari latar belakang diatas, peneliti merumuskan masalah diantaranya apa manfaat sosial ekonomi dari penerapan konsep cbt, serta sejauh mana keberhasilan penerapan konsep cbt pada desa wisata nglanggeran dan strategi apa yang diperlukan untuk pengembangan kawasan desa wisata nglanggeran. metode penelitian populasi dan sampel penelitian 1. populasi populasi dalam penelitian ini adalah warga yang terlibat langsung terhadap kepengelolaan desa wisata nglanggeran yang berjumlah 150 jiwa (data pengelola desa wisata nglanggeran). 2. sampel jumlah sampel yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini berjumlah 35 orang. teknik pengambilan sampel adalah menggunakan sampling kuota. sampling kuota adalah teknik menentukan sampel dan populasi yang mempunyai ciri tertentu sampai jumlah kuota yang diinginkan (sugiyono, 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 total kunjungan 74 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 1, april 2017: 71-85 2007). penentuan sampel akan dibatasi berdasarkan kriteria: 1) warga desa wisata nlanggeran yang bersedia menjadi responden 2) warga yang terlibat langsung dalam pengelolaan desa wisata nglanggeran 3) yang membuka usaha disekitar desa wisata nglanggeran data dan sumber data dalam penelitian ini data yang digunakan adalah data primer dan data sekunder. data primer, yaitu data yang langsung dikumpulkan oleh peneliti dari sumber pertamanya (suryabrata, 2006). metode yang digunakan untuk memperoleh data primer adalah menggunakan kuisioner yang dibagikan dan diisi oleh responden, serta melalui wawancara dengan pihak pihak yang terlibat langsung dalam pengelolaan lokasi penelitian. sedangkan data sekunder, yaitu data yang tersusun dalam bentuk dokumen-dokumen (suryabrata, 2006). diperoleh dari data yang ada pada pihak pengelola desa wisata nglanggeran, instansi instansi terkait seperti dinas kebudayaan dan pariwisata, bps, serta melalui studi dokumen yang ada pada penelitian sebelumnya. lokasi penelitian penelitian akan dilakukan di desa wisata nglanggeran kecamatan patuk kabupaten gunung kidul. lokasi dipilih karena desa wisata nglanggeran merupakan salah satu desa wisata yang sudah menerapkan konsep community based tourism dan pernah memenangkan penghargaan oleh dinas pariwisata diy sebagai desa wisata dengan keunikan alam dalam lomba desa se-diy pada tahun 2009. prestasi terbaru yang diperoleh desa wisata nglanggeran adalah memenangkan award sebagai desa wisata terbaik se-asean pada ajang asean community based tourism award yang diselenggarakan di singapura pada tanggal 20 januari 2017. metode analisis data 1. analisis deskriptif penelitian ini menggunakan analisis statistika deskriptif untuk mendeskripsiskan atau menggambarkan objek yang diteliti melalui data sampel atau populasi tanpa melakukan analisis (sugiyono, 2007). 2. fishbone analysis fishbone analysis digunakan dalam upaya mengkategorikan berbagai sebab-sebab potensial dari suatu pokok masalah menggunakan cara yang mudah dimengerti dan tersusun rapi. prosedur yang digunakan adalah terlebih dahulu menentukan problem statement yang akan menduduki posisi kepala ikan sebagai akibat yang akan dicari penyebabnya. kemudian sepanjang ruas tulang ikan disusun main cause yang nantinya akan menjabarkan sebab-sebab lain, hingga memperoleh sebab paling potensial. berikut gambaran diagram fishbone untuk mencari sebab akibat dibidang industri. a. langkah pertama, menggambar garis horizontal dan kotak didepannya yang berisi pernyataan masalah (problem statement). main cause effect gambar 2. langkah 1: menentukan pernyataan masalah (problem statement) b. langkah kedua, menulis main cause dalam kotak yang akan dihubungkan ke garis panah utama menggunakan garis diagonal. penghambat pengembangan desa wisata strategi pengembangan ekowisata melalui konsep… (jamalina, i.a., wardani, d.) 75 gambar 3. langkah 2: menuliskan main cause yang paling relevan ke-6 kategori ini dipilih sebagai main cause yang menjadi faktor penghambat pengembangan desa wisata nglanggeran berdasarkan penelitian terdahulu yang telah dilakukan oleh (samaji, 2015). c. langkah ketiga, menuliskan penyebab kecil disekitar main cause dan menghubungkannya. main cause effect gambar 4. langkah 3: mencari penyebab paling potensial d. setelah menemukan sebab-sebab paling potensial dari permasalahan yang diteliti. tahap terakhir adalah membuat tabel rencana penanggulangan. tabel 3. permasalahan sebab-akibat dan rencana penanggulangan faktor yang diamati masalah yang terjadi rancana penanggulangan price people facility place promotion product c. main cause effect penghambat pengembangan desa wisata price people product facility place promotion penghambat pengembangan desa wisata price promotion place facility product people 76 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 1, april 2017: 71-85 hasil dan pembahasan identifikasi masalah penurunan jumlah kunjungan wisatawan pada tahun 2015 upaya promosi dan perbaikan fasilitas penunjang wisata yang dikelola warga dan kelompok karang taruna desa wisata nglanggeran berhasil menarik wisatawan untuk berkunjung ke desa wisata nglanggeran. namun, jumlah kunjungan wisatawan yang melonjak derastis pada tahun 2013 ke 2014 ternyata mengalami penurunan di tahun 2015. jumlah kunjungan cenderung turun dengan selisih sebanyak 69.386 orang dengan persentase penurunan pengunjung sebanyak 21,32% ditahun 2015. hal ini dibenarkan oleh pihak pengelola saat sesi wawancara yang dilakukan dengan saudara aris budiyono, 28 tahun selaku seksi promosi & pemasaran desa wisata nglanggeran. tabel 4. data jumlah kunjungan wisatawan pada tahun 2012-2015 no tahun kunjungan wisatawan total domestik mancanegara 1 2012 27675 200 27875 2 2013 85424 234 85658 3 2014 324827 476 325303 4 2015 255388 529 255917 sumber: pengelola desa wisata nglanggeran penurunan jumlah kunjungan wisatawan pada tahun 2014 ke 2015 yang tergolong drastis ini ditanggapi secara santai oleh pihak pengelola, bahkan menurut narasumber (budiyono, 2016) menyatakan penurunan jumlah kunjungan wisatan ditahun 2015 sama sekali tidak mengurangi omset yang masuk kepihak pengelola. beliau mengatakan: “tahun 2015 itu jumlah kunjungan turun mbak, tapi omset naik. konsep kita ekowisata itu pengelola lebih senang kalo jumlah kunjungan turun tapi omset kami tetap naik kok. jadi buat apa mendatangkan orang-orang untuk berwisata disini tapi malah tingkat sampah dan kerusakan daya dukung kapasitas tidak sebanding dengan yang kita dapat. jadi segmentasi kita ubah sekarang, tidak memburu orang untuk membeli tiket tapi lebih ke komunitas, corporate, dan perusahaan, yang mereka datang dengan jumlah sedikit tapi uangnya banyak”. pernyataan aris budiyono (2016) didukung dengan data peningkatan omset yang masuk ke pihak pengelola, dimana selalu terjadi peningkatan dari tahun ke tahun. bahkan di tahun 2015 saat jumlah kunjungan mengalami penurunan, omset yang masuk ke pihak pengelola tetap naik. berikut data omset masuk ke pihak pengelola yang disajikan pada table 5. tabel 5. kenaikan omset masuk no tahun omset pengelolaan 1 2012 rp 81.225.000, 2 2013 rp 424.690.000, 3 2014 rp 1.422.915.000, 4 2015 rp 1.541.990.000, sumber: pengelola desa wisata nglanggeran pihak pengelola menuturkan telah merubah segmentasi pasar ke komunitaskomunitas, perusahaan, kelembagaan, melalui penawaran paket-paket yang ditawarkan meliputi (paket makrab, paket gathering, paket outbond, hiking, paket camping, dll). pihak pengelola tidak lagi menargetkan jumlah kunjungan yang tinggi dengan berupaya strategi pengembangan ekowisata melalui konsep… (jamalina, i.a., wardani, d.) 77 mendatangkan banyak orang hanya untuk membeli tiket masuk ke objek wisata, namun wisatawan yang datang malah merusak sarana, meningkatnya tingkat sampah karena kebanyakan pengunjung yang datang kurang konservatif. saat ini pihak pengelola lebih menargetkan pada jumlah kunjungan wisatawan yang sedikit namun masuk dengan uang yang banyak, karena wisatawan yang datang berkelompok tidak hanya membeli tiket masuk melainkan membeli paket-paket wisata yang ditawarkan oleh pihak pengelola. sumber: pengelola desa wisata nglanggeran grafik 4. penurunan total kunjungan sumber: pengelola desa wisata nglanggeran grafik 5. kenaikan omset masuk dapat dilihat dari grafik 5 bahwa menurunnya jumlah wisatawan yang datang ke desa wisata nglanggeran pada tahun 2015 tidak serta merta menurunkan omset yang masuk ke pihak pengelola. dibuktikan dengan grafik omset masuk yang selalu meningkat dari data tahun 2012-2015. identifikasi manfaat sosial ekonomi pengembangan desa wisata nglanggeran dan melihat sejauh mana keberhasilan konsep community based tourism di desa wisata nglanggeran identifikasi manfaat sosial-ekonomi bagi masyarakat di desa wisata nglanggeran dengan adanya kegiatan wisata yang menganut konsep community based tourism ini dilakukan dengan cara membagikan kuisioner pada masyarakat sebagi alat pengumpulan data. berikut adalah hasil penelitian yang telah dilakukan oleh penulis dengan mengajukan 9 butir pertanyaan yang telah diajukan pada responden dan telah dianalisis menggunakan skala likert, sebagai berikut. berdasarkan hasil penelitian yang melibatkan sampel 35 responden diatas, keberaadaan desa wisata nglanggeran bisa dikatergorikan sb (sangat berhasil) memberikan manfaat sosial ekonomi bagi masyarakat di desa wisata nglanggeran, berikut total jawaban responden yang disajikan dalam grafik 6. 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 2012 2013 2014 2015 total kunjungan 0 500000000 1e+09 1.5e+09 2e+09 2012 2013 2014 2015 omset masuk 78 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 1, april 2017: 71-85 sumber: data primer diolah grafik 6. jawaban responden total jawaban ss (sangat setuju) berjumlah 113 atau 80,71% responden sangat setuju merasakan manfaat sosial ekonomi dari keberadaan desa wisata nglanggeran ini. sedangkan sisanya 19,28% responden merasa setuju dengan total jawaban s (setuju) berjumlah 27 orang. secara keseluruhan total masyarakat yang terlibat langsung dalam pengelolaan desa wisata nglanggeran adalah 154 orang. diluar itu masih ada lagi kelompok-kelompok masyarakat yang diberdayakan dengan adanya desa wisata nglanggeran ini, diantaranya:  kelompok homestay yang berjumlah 80-unit yang berarti memberdayakan 80 kepala keluarga.  kelompok ibu-ibu pkk baru 3 dari 5 dusun di desa wisata nglanggeran yang terlibat dengan jumlah anggota 25 orang, memiliki bagian menurusi olahan kuliner, dan kerajinan sebagai daya tarik buatan.  kelompok kambing, melibatkan kurang lebih 60 anggota yang dibagi menjadi 3 kelompok.  kelompok pedagang yang melibatkan 16 anggota. tercapainya indikator-indikator sosial ekonomi sebagai aspek utama pengembangan konsep community based tourism yang ada di desa wisata nglanggeran meliputi:  adanya dana pengembangan komunitas melalui omset yang didapat pengelola.  terciptanya lapangan pekerjaan  adanya pendapatan masyarakat dari sektor pariwisata karena terbukanya ruang usaha baru.  meningkatkan kualitas hidup karena meningkatnya pendapatan masyarakat lewat adanya kegiatan kepariwisataan di desa wisata nglanggeran.  menanamkan rasa bangga terhadap desanya  pembagian tugas laki-laki dan perempuan sesuai porsinya masing-masing.  memberikan ruang bagi generasi tua dan tua untuk bekerjasama dalam proses pengembangan, dan bersama-sama menjalankan kegiatan kepariwisataan di desa wisata nglanggeran.  membangun kekuatan organisasi komunitas, seperti pokdarwis karang taruna desa nglanggeran.  meningkatnya kesadaran masyarakan untuk lebih konservatif terhadap lingkungan. berdasarkan tingkat ketercapaian seluruh indikator diatas, dapat dikatakan bahwa penerapan konsep community based tourism telah berhasil dikembangkan pada desa wisata nglanggeran, kecamatan patuk, kabupaten gunung kidul. strategi pengembangan kawasan desa wisata nglanggeran 1. analysis sebab-akibat (fishbone analysis) berdasarkan hasil wawancara yang dilakukan dengan pihak pengelola, maka diperolah beberapa masalah yang diduga menjadi faktor-faktor penghambat pengembangan desa wisata nglanggeran. sangat setuju setuju strategi pengembangan ekowisata melalui konsep… (jamalina, i.a., wardani, d.) 79 tabel 4. permasalahan sebab akibat faktor yang diamati masalah yang terjadi price c1. tarif restribusi yang ditetapkan pemerintah terlalu tinggi c2. harga produk olahan makanan masih terlalu mahal c3. harga kuliner dan kerajinan belum sesui kualitas c4. harga paket wisata yang ditawarkan tidak sesuai dengan fasilitas yang disediakan product c1. produk olahan yang ditawarkan kurang variatif c2. atraksi budaya tidak mempunyai jadwal yang pasti c3. paket-paket wisata yang ditawarkan desa wisata nglanggeran kurang menarik people c1. wisatawan yang datang kurang konservatif c2. kurangnya sdm yang profesional dalam pengelolan desa wisata nglanggeran c3. sdm kurang kreatif dalam memproduksi olahan khas c4. sdm yang ada minim yang mampu berbahasa asing c5. sdm kurang ramah facility c1. ketersedian lahan parkir belum memadai c2. jumlah homestay terlalu sedikit c3. dibeberapa titik, jalanan menuju objek wisata terlalu curam atau licin c4. sinyal buruk untuk beberapa provider place c1. daya tarik wisata sangat dipengaruhi oleh cuaca c2. lokasi desa nglanggeran rawan tanah longsor c3. lahan yang tersedia kurang memadai promotion c1. promosi masih menggunakan bahasa indonesia c2. kurang kerjasama dengan pihak pengembang c3. kurang memanfaatkan media sosial c4. pihak pengelola kesulitan untuk memasarkan paket wisata pada wisatawan sumber: data primer dapat diketahui faktor-faktor penghambat pengembangan desa wisata nglanggeran, yaitu dari segi price (harga), product (produk), people (sdm), facility (fasilitas), place (lokasi), dan promotion (promosi). setelah melalui sesi jejak pendapat menggunakan alat bantu kuisioner serta sesi yang telah dibagikan pada responden, kemudian ditemukan faktor paling dominan sebagai penghambat pengembangan desa wisata nglanggeran. berikut rincian masalah tersebut: tabel 6. faktor penghambat paling dominan main cause faktor penghambat paling dominan grade product kurang mengoptimalkan hasil olahan kuliner yang berbahan dasar singkong, coklat, pisang, dan susu kambing. menghambat place wisata berbasis alam sangat dipengaruhi cuaca menghambat 80 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 1, april 2017: 71-85 main cause faktor penghambat paling dominan grade people  wisatawan yang datang kurang konservatif  sdm minim yang mampu berbahasa asing sangat menghambat facility ketersediaan lahan parkir sangat minim, serta akses jalan terlalu sempit. menghambat promotion  promosi masih menggunakan bahasa indonesia  kurang promosi objek air terjun kedung kadang menghambat sumber: data primer diolah rencana penanggulangan masalah setelah mengetahui faktor penyebab yang paling dominan terhadap permasalahan, langkah selanjutnya yaitu menentukan rencana penanggulangan untuk mengurai permasalahan yang ada. adapun strategi yang akan dilakukan adalah: a. price (harga) price (harga) dimasukan dalam kategori main cause pada penelitian ini, dikarenakan mewakili pendapat dari sejumlah wisatawan yang merasa keberatan dengan harga tiket masuk kawasan objek wisata yang dirasa terlalu mahal bagi sebagian wisatawan. namun sejauh penelitian dilapangan, harga tidak terlalu menjadi faktor dominan yang menghambat pengembangan desa wisata nglanggeran. berdasarkan hasil wawancara dengan pihak pengelola, harga tiket masuk sengaja dinaikan sebagai upaya mengontrol jumlah kunjungan wisatawan agar tidak terlalu banyak. hal ini sengaja dilakukan untuk mengembalikan konsep ekowisata yaitu perjalanan wisata sekaligus menjaga kelestarian alam, sehingga dengan menaikan harga tiket diharapkan akan mendatangkan wisatawan yang lebih konservatif agar ekosistem tetap terjaga. b. product (produk) sejauh ini sudah terdapat beberapa produk olahan kuliner di desa wisata nglanggeran diantaranya: dodol kakao, kopi kakao, brownis singkong. sedangkan untuk olahan susu, terdapat minuman susu rasa coklat, dan permen susu. untuk menanggulangi permasalahan kurang variatifnya olahan produk kuliner di desa wisata nglanggeran sedangkan ketersediaan bahan baku utama seperti kakao, pisang, singkong, dan susu kambing cukup melimpah. pengelola dapat mengolah bahan baku tersebut menjadi es krim yang bahan baku utama nya menggunakan susu kambing, kemudian memberi varian rasa coklat dan pisang yang bahan bakunya banyak terdapat di desa wisata nglanggeran. es krim ini dapat dikemas dalam cup-cup kecil, kemudian dibekukan dalam lemari es agar tahan lama. c. people (sdm) wisatawan kurang konservatif merupakan salah satu faktor penghambat pengembangan ekowisata. beberapa tahun terakhir, review di media sosial tentang keindahan 3 objek wisata yang ada di desa wisata nglanggeran khususnya gunung api purba dan embung nglanggeran cenderung meningkatkan kunjungan wisatawan. namun, kunjungan wisatawan yang kurang konservatif malah strategi pengembangan ekowisata melalui konsep… (jamalina, i.a., wardani, d.) 81 meningkatkan kerusakan lingkungan serta meningkatkan jumlah sampah yang ada. pengelola telah berupaya menanggulangi permasalahan tersebut lewat penyediaan papan informasi tentang larangan merusak lingkungan dengan kata-kata yang kekinian. selain itu pengelola perlu lebih banyak menyediakan tempat sampah dibeberapa titik agar dapat menampung sampah wisatawan. selain itu, masalah internal pengelola yang masi sangat minim dalam berbahasa asing sedangkan desa wisata nglanggeran mulai memasuki pasar internasional melalui keterlibatan gunung api purba dalam global geopark sangat menghambat pengembangan desa wisata nglanggeran. sejauh ini pihak pengelola memang menyediakan tour guide bagi para wisatawan asing yang memerlukan. selain itu, beberapa pelatihan bahasa inggris pernah diikuti oleh anggota. namun, usaha tersebut kurang berhasil karena kedatangan wisatawan asing yang tidak menentu membuat para pengelola jarang mempraktekan kemampuan berbahasa asingnya sehingga cenderung kembali lupa. harapan dari pihak pengelola adalah kerjasama dan pendampingan dari pihak universitas-universitas untuk memberikan pelatihan bahasa asing secara berkelanjutan dan terjadwal dengan mendatangkan staf pengajar secara teratur agar kemampuan berbahasa asing pengelola terus terasah. sedangkan untuk rencana penanggulangan jangka pendek, para anggota yang sama sekali belum bisa berbahasa asing minimal mengetahui kosa kata sederhana untuk percakapan yang dapat dipelajari lewat kamus kamus bahasa asing. d. place (lokasi) konsep wisata berbasis alam memang sangat dipengaruhi oleh cuaca. sehingga untuk memberikan kenyamanan bagi wisatawan pengelola perlu menyediakan lebih banyak lagi gazebo dibeberapa titik sebagai tempat berteduh bagi wisatawan. e. facility (fasilitas) faktor dominan yang menjadi penghambat dari sisi fasilitas adalah ketersediaan lahan parkir yang masi minim belum mampu menampung kendaraan wisatawan dalam jumlah banyak. akses jalan yang terlalu sempit sehingga tidak bisa dilewati mobil besar. harapan dari pihak pengelola adalah agar segera dibangun terminal untuk memudahkan akses dan memudahkan penjemputan bagi wisatawan yang membutukan angkutan lokal menuju lokasi. kemudian jika sudah tersediannya terminal diharapkan para wisatawan akan memilih menggunakan moda transportasi umum atau menggunakan transportasi lokal yang disediakan masyarakat jika datang dalam satu rombongan besar, sehingga lahan parkir yang minim pada lokasi desa wisata tidak lagi menjadi hambatan. f. promotion (promosi) promosi yang dilakukan desa wisata nglanggeran sejauh ini sudah cukup baik. dengan adanya website yang dapat diakses oleh wisatawan yaitu www.gunungapipurba.com, brosur, serta memanfaatkan media sosial seperti instagram sebagai media promosi. namun kendala lain yang disadari oleh pihak pengelola adalah bahasa, dengan masuknya desa wisata nglanggeran sebagai desa wisata terbaik se-asean dan gunung api purba sebagai global geopark. mengharuskan pihak pengelola untuk menterjemahkan media promosi yang semula hanya berbahasa indonesia menjadi bahasa inggris atau mungkin berbagai bahasa lainnya. dengan tersedianya berbagai macam pilihan bahasa pada website sebagai salah satu media promosi, memudahkan wisatawan asing untuk mengetahui lebih banyak tentang desa 82 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 1, april 2017: 71-85 wisata nglanggeran sebelum memutuskan datang untuk berkunjung. simpulan berdasarkan tingkat ketercapaian seluruh indikator diatas, dapat dikatakan bahwa penerapan konsep community based tourism telah berhasil dikembangkan pada desa wisata nglanggeran, kecamatan patuk, kabupaten gunung kidul. faktor penghambat terbesar berasal dari faktor sebagai berikut: a. sumber daya manusia yang tidak mampu berbahasa inggris dan wisatawan yang kurang konservatif menghambat pengembangan pariwisata di nglanggeran. b. dari sisi produk, kurang mengoptimalkan hasil olahan kuliner yang berbahan dasar singkong, coklat, pisang dan susu kambing yang merupakan produk andalan daerah setempat. c. wisata berbasis alam sangat dipengaruhi cuaca d. ketersediaan lahan parkir sangat minim, serta akses jalan terlalu sempit. e. promosi masih menggunakan bahasa indonesia dan kurangnya promosi terhadap objek air terjun kedung kadang adapun strategi yang akan dilakukan adalah: a. price (harga) harga tiket masuk sengaja dinaikan sebagai upaya mengontrol jumlah kunjungan wisatawan agar tidak terlalu banyak. hal ini sengaja dilakukan untuk mengembalikan konsep ekowisata yaitu perjalanan wisata sekaligus menjaga kelestarian alam, sehingga dengan menaikan harga tiket diharapkan akan mendatangkan wisatawan yang lebih konservatif agar ekosistem tetap terjaga. c. product (produk) menanggulangi permasalahan kurang variatifnya olahan produk kuliner di desa wisata nglanggeran karena ketersediaan bahan baku utama seperti kakao, pisang, singkong, dan susu kambing cukup melimpah. b. people (sdm) kunjungan wisatawan yang kurang konservatif malah meningkatkan kerusakan lingkungan serta meningkatkan jumlah sampah yang ada. selain itu lemahnya sumber daya manusia dalam berbahasa inggris mendorong pihak pengelola berharap adanya kerjasama dan pendampingan dari pihak universitasuniversitas untuk memberikan pelatihan bahasa asing secara berkelanjutan dan terjadwal dengan mendatangkan staf pengajar secara teratur agar kemampuan berbahasa asing pengelola terus terasah. d. place (lokasi) konsep wisata berbasis alam memang sangat dipengaruhi oleh cuaca. sehingga untuk memberikan kenyamanan bagi wisatawan pengelola perlu menyediakan lebih banyak lagi gazebo dibeberapa titik sebagai tempat berteduh bagi wisatawan. e. facility (fasilitas) faktor dominan yang menjadi penghambat dari sisi fasilitas adalah ketersediaan lahan parkir yang masih minim belum mampu menampung kendaraan wisatawan dalam jumlah banyak. akses jalan yang terlalu sempit sehingga tidak bisa dilewati mobil besar. f. promotion (promosi) promosi yang dilakukan desa wisata nglanggeran sejauh ini sudah cukup baik. namun kendala lain yang disadari oleh pihak pengelola adalah bahasa, dengan masuknya desa wisata nglanggeran sebagai desa wisata terbaik se-asean dan gunung api purba sebagai global geopark mengharuskan pihak pengelola untuk menyediakan berbagai macam pilihan bahasa pada website sebagai salah satu media promosi. dengan demikian memudahkan wisatawan asing untuk mengetahui lebih banyak tentang desa strategi pengembangan ekowisata melalui konsep… (jamalina, i.a., wardani, d.) 83 wisata nglanggeran sebelum memutuskan datang untuk berkunjung. daftar pustaka administator desa nglanggeran. (2017). statistik berdasarkan pekerjann. dipetik januari 31, 2017, dari desa nglanggeran, patuk, gunungkidul: http://nglanggeran-patuk.desa.id/ ainun, n. f., hetty, & darwis, s. r. (2014). pengembangan desa wisata melalui kosep community based tourism. prosiding: riset dan pkm, 2 (3), 301444. astuti, y. d. (2010). pemetaan dampak ekonomi pariwisata dalam penerapan konsep community based tourism (studi kasus desa wisata kebon agung di kabupaten bantul). fakultas ekonomi. surakarta: universitas sebelas maret. budhi, s. k., & lestari, n. p. (2016). community based ecotourism development in jatiluwih village. jurnal ijaber, 14, 1865-1880. budiyono, a. (2016, oktober 22). penurunana jumlah kunjungan. (a. i. jamalina, pewawancara) byczek, c. (2011, april). blessing for all? community based ecotourism in bali between global, national, and lokal interesta case study: in aseas. jurnal article, 81-106. demartoto, a. d. (2008). strategi pengembangan objek wisata pedesaan oleh pelaku wisata di kabupaten boyolali. surakarta: universitas sebelas maret. dewi, m. h. (2013). pengembangan desa wisata berbasis partisipasi masyarakat lokal di desa wisata jatiluwih tabanan, bali. (c. fadeli, & m. baiquni, penyunt.) kawistara, iii, 117-226. fandeli, c. (2003). pengembangan kawasan pedesaan sebagai objek wisata (perencanaan modal kelembagaan, pasar dan paket wisata pedesaan sekitar gunung merapi). yogyakarta: lembaga penelitian universitas gajahmada. fauziah, n. (2009). aplikasi fishbone analisis dalam meningkatkan produksi teh pada pt rumpun sari kemuning, kabupaten karang anyar. universitas sebelas maret, fakultas pertanian. surakarta: universitas sebelas maret. goodwin, h., & santilli, r. (2009). community based tourism: success? icrt occasional paper 11. hariadi, dodi; koordinator statistik kec. patuk. (2015, oktober). statistika daerah kecamatan patuk 2015. dipetik november 27, 2016, dari badan pusat statistik kabupaten gunungkidul: http://gunungkidulkab.bps.go.id hariadi, dodi; koordinator statistik kec. patuk. (2016, september). statistika daerah kecamatan patuk 2016. dipetik november 27, 2016, dari badan pusat statistik kabupaten gunungkidul: http://gunungkisulkab.bps.go.id kerjasama direktorat produk pariwisata. (2009). prinsip dan kriteria ekowisata berbasis masyarakat. departemen kebudayaan dan pariwisata; wwfindonesia. direktorat jendral pengembangan destinasi pariwisata. kho, b. (2016, juni 27). pengertian cause and effect diagram (fishbone diagram) cara membuatnya. dipetik november 30, 2016, dari ilmu managmen industri: http://ilmumanagmenindustri.com kiss, a. (2004). is community based ecotourism a good use of biodiverencity concervation funds? opinion, 19, 232-237. koordinator statistik kec. patuk. (2014, desember). kecamatan patuk dalam angka 2014. (s. n. gunungkidul, penyunt.) dipetik 84 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 1, april 2017: 71-85 november 27, 2016, dari badan pusat statistik kabupaten gunungkidul: http://gunungkidulkab.bps.go.id koordinator statistik kec. patuk. (2015, november). kecamatan patuk dalam angka 2015. (s. n. gunungkidul, penyunt.) dipetik november 27, 2016, dari badan pusat statistik kabupaten gunungkidul: http://gunungkidulkab.bps.go.id koordinator statistik kec. patuk. (2016, juli). kecamatan patuk dalam angka 2016. dipetik november 27, 2016, dari badan pusat statistik kabupaten gunungkidul: http://gunungkidul.bps.go.id kurniawan, w. (2015). dampak sosial ekonomi pembangunan pariwisata umbul sidomukti kecamatan bandungan kabupaten semarang. fakultas ekonomi. semarang: universitas negeri semarang. lucchetti, v. g., & font, x. d. (2013, june). community based tourism: critical success factors. dipetik november 27, 2016, dari the international centre for responsible tourism: http://www.icrtourism.org manahampi, r. m. (2015). peranan ekowisata bagi kesejahteraan masyarakat bahoi kecamatan likupang barat. (l. rengkung, y. rori, & j. timban, penyunt.) ii, 1-18. melantino, a. r. (2013). analisis dampak ekonomi objek wisata terhadap pendapatan masyarakat lokal (tanam nasional tiga puluh kabupaten indragiri hulu). jurnal ekonomi, 1;17. murti, b. (2013). desain dan ukuran sample untuk penelitian kuantitatif dan kualitatif di bidang kesehatan. yogyakarta: gajah mada univertisy press. nitikasetsoontorn, s. (2014, juli). the succes factor of community based tourism in thailand. dissertation. poerwanto, g. h. (2014, april 27). diagram fishbone. dipetik november 16, 2016, dari managmen kualitas: https://sites.google.com putri, j. p., & manaf, a. (2013). faktor-faktor keberhasilan pengembangan desa wisata di dataran tinggi dieng. jurnal teknik pwk, 2, 559-568. roscoe. (1982). research methods for business. dalam sugiyono, statistika (hal. 74). bandung: cv alfabet. samaji, r. (2015). strategi pengembangan ekowisata nglanggeran dalam upaya meningkatkan pendapatan masyarakat desa nglanggeran kecamatan patuk kabupaten gunungkidul. universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta, ekonomi. yogyakarta: universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta. sastrayuda, g. s. (2010). konsep pemberdayaan masyarakat berbasis pariwisata (community based tourism). hand out. sastrayuda, g. s. (2010). konsep pengembnagan desa wisata. hand out. spillane, j. j. (1987). ekonomi pariwisata sejarah dan prospeknya. yogyakarta: kanisius. statistik desa nglanggeran. (2017). statistik berdasarkan jenis kelamin. dipetik januari 31, 2017, dari desa nnglanggeran kecamatan patuk kabupaten gunungkidul: http://nglanggeran-patuk.desa.id suansari, p. (2003). community based tourism hanbook. (b. sewartamra, k. momtakhob, j. lejeune, & p. ricards, penyunt.) thailand: responsible ecological social tour (rest). sugiyono. (2007). statistika untuk penelitian (12 ed.). bandung: cv alfabeta. suryabrata, s. b. (2006). metodologi penelitian (1 dan 2 ed.). jakarta, jakarta, indonesia: pt. raja grafindo persada. strategi pengembangan ekowisata melalui konsep… (jamalina, i.a., wardani, d.) 85 sutisna, e. s. (2015). metode penelitian kualitatif & campuran. surakarta: upt. penerbit dan percetakan uns. syafi'i, m. (2015). perencanaan desa wisata dengan pendekatan community based tourism (cbt) di desa bedono, kecamatan sayung, kabupaten demak. jurnal ruang, i, 61-70. vitasurya, r. v. (2016). local wisdom for suitainable development of rural tourism case on kalibiru and lopati village province daerah istimewa yogyakarta. jurnal procedia: social and behavior sciences, 97-108. analisis kualitas pendidikan dan kesehatan anak keluarga tkw jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016, hlm. 97-102 doi: 10.18196/jesp.17.2.3782 analisis kualitas pendidikan dan kesehatan anak dari tenaga kerja wanita: studi kasus kabupaten cianjur dan indramayu ferry hadiyanto fakultas ekonomi, universitas padjadjaran jalan dipati ukur no.35 bandung, jawa barat, indonesia e-mail korespondensi: ferry.hadiyanto@fe.unpad.ac.id naskah diterima: juni 2016; disetujui: oktober 2016 abstract: this study aims to determine the quality of children’s education and health of female worker (tenaga kerja wanita) families in cianjur and indramayu districts. using survey data on 56 households in cianjur district and 48 households in indramayu district. this research used probit model analysis. the variables such as children report cards, frequency of child illness, education expenditure, health expenditure, age of children, education of head of household, dependency of child, and family responsibility. the results showed that education expenditure, age of children, and education of head of family have a significant effect on children education, while children's health was affected by child's age and family's responsibility. keywords: education, health, children, female worker jel classifications: i10, i20, j01 abstrak: penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui kualitas pendidikan dan kesehatan anak keluarga dari tenaga kerja wanita (tkw) di kabupaten cianjur dan indramayu. dengan menggunakan data survei terhadap 56 rumah tangga di kabupaten cianjur dan 48 rumah tangga di kabupaten indramayu. alat analisis yang digunakan adalah analisis model probit. variabel yang digunakan adalah nilai raport anak, frekuensi sakit anak, pengeluaran pendidikan, pengeluaran kesehatan, usia anak, pendidikan kepala keluarga, dependesi anak, dan responsibility keluarga. hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pengeluaran pendidikan, usia anak, dan pendidikan kepala keluarga berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pendidikan anak, sedangkan kesehatan anak dipengaruhi oleh usia anak dan tanggungjawab keluarga. kata kunci: pendidikan, kesehatan, tenaga kerja wanita (tkw) klasifikasi jel: i10, i20, j01 mailto:ferry.hadiyanto@fe.unpad.ac.id 98 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, april 2016: 97-102 pendahuluan seiring perkembangan jaman, kemajuan ilmu pengetahuan dan teknologi saat ini peran wanita juga mulai mengalami pergeseran. wanita kini tidak hanya berperan sebagai ibu rumah tangga, tetapi juga berperan sebagai pendukung ekonomi keluarga bahkan tak jarang menjadi tulang punggung keluarga. tidak hanya di wilayah perkotaan, di wilayah pedesaan pun demikian hal nya, cukup banyak wanita turut bekerja untuk membantu kehidupan keluarga, sebagian besar dari mereka terutama sebagai tkw di luar negeri. di jawa barat kabupaten cianjur dan kabupaten indramayu merupakan dua wilayah terbesar pengiriman tkw ke luar negeri, sebagian besar tkw dikirim dengan tujuan malaysia dan saudi arabia. menurut wahjuni (2007) terdapat dua faktor yang mendorong ibu rumah tangga menjadi tkw yaitu: (a) keinginan dari dalam diri sendiri dengan tujuan untuk merubah nasib, meningkatkan kesejahteraan keluarga, dan memenuhi kebutuhan keluarga, dan (b) dorongan dari luar dirinya yaitu pengaruh teman, kerabat, keluarga, dan dorongan dari suami dengan tujuan untuk membuat rumah, memenuhi perabot rumah tangga, kendaraan, dan modal usaha untuk masa depan. disatu sisi secara ekonomi keputusan bekerja di luar negeri memberikan dampak positif dimana pendapatan mereka menjadi bertambah dan kesejahteraan keluarga meningkat melalui remitasi yang dikirim dari luar negeri. namun disisi lain timbul biaya sosial yang harus dibayar selama bekerja menjadi tkw terutama jika mereka meninggalkan anak mereka. adanya pengalihan fungsi pengasuhan anak dimana peran sebagai ibu rumah tangga harus digantikan oleh anggota keluarga lain. tidak hanya pengasuhan anak saja, pendidikan anak juga menjadi permasalahan keluarga tkw, pertama ibu tidak mempunyai kesempatan mendidik anak-anaknya dalam kurun waktu masa kontrak kerja. kedua, suami mengambil alih tanggung jawab tersebut sebagai pendidik anak di lingkungan keluarga, kepala keluarga, dan juga sebagai pencari nafkah. suami memiliki waktu yang terbatas untuk memberikan pendidikan kepada anak-anaknya. tidak sedikit anak-anak dari keluarga tkw yang putus sekolah atau tidak melanjutkan pendidikan ke jenjang yang lebih tinggi. beberapa penelitian sebelumnya telah mencoba menjelaskan pengaruh migrasi terhadap anak seperti penelitian yang dilakukan oleh unicef office di barbados dan eastern caribbean (2009) menganalisis pengaruh migrasi terhadap anak-anak. hasilnya ditemukan bahwa walaupun membawa dampak positif bagi kehidupan ekonomi keluarga, migrasi ternyata memberikan pengaruh negatif bagi perkembangan anak. anak-anak yang ditinggalkan oleh ibunya bermigrasi cenderung mengalami kekerasan psikis, eksploitasi anak dan beberapa kasus pelecehan seksual. kurangnnya perhatian orang tua juga menyebabkan anak menjadi rendah diri, menurunnya motivasi untuk belajar, keterjaminan nutrisi dan kesehatan menurun, yang mengakibatkan tingginya angka putus sekolah pada anak di caribbean. berdasarkan latar belakang diatas, penelitian ini mencoba menganalisis pengaruh faktor ekonomi dan non ekonomi terhadap kualitas pendidikan dan kesehatan anak keluarga tkw studi kasus di kabupaten cianjur dan indramayu. pendidikan merupakan suatu faktor kebutuhan dasar untuk setiap manusia dalam upaya mencerdaskan kehidupan bangsa, karena melalui pendidikan peningkatan kesejahteraan rakyat dapat diwujudkan. pendidikan memiliki peran penting dalam kehidupan berbangsa dan bernegara untuk menciptakan sumber daya manusia yang berkualitas. adam smith (1776), mencoba menjelaskan penyebab kesejahteraan suatu negara, dengan mengisolasi dua faktor, yaitu; 1) pentingnya skala ekonomi; dan 2) analisis kualitas pendidikan dan kesehatan anak… (ferry hadiyanto) 99 pembentukan keahlian dan kualitas manusia. faktor yang kedua inilah yang sampai saat ini telah menjadi isu utama tentang pentingnya pendidikan dalam meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi. romer (1986), krugman (1987), dan gupta (1999) juga menjelaskan bahwa residual itu menujukkan tingkat pendidikan (educational rate) dan sumber daya mansusia. penelitian dilakukan hildebrant dan mckenzie (2005) dengan menggunakan fungsi produksi kesehatan grossman (1973) secara matematis dapat ditulis : hi : f (mi, ti, ki, bi, ei) dimana m adalah kecukupan nutrisi dan obatobatan, t adalah kuantitas waktu bersama orang tua, k adalah pengetahuan orang tua akan kesehatan, b adalah warisan biologis seperti faktor keturunan genetik. oishi (2002) mencoba menjelaskan aspek gender dalam migrasi internasional melalui pendekatan integratif yang dilihati dari; (1) macro-level (negara), (2) micro-level (individu), dan (3) mesolevel (masyarakat). konsep makro level menjelaskan pola migrasi wanita sebagai akibat dari kebijakan migrasi di suatu negara. sebagaimana menurut lim & oishi (1996), bahwa kebijakan emigrasi memperlakukan pria dan wanita secara berbeda. beberapa negara tidak membatasi migrasi pria, tetapi membatasi bahkan melarang migrasi wanita. banyak negara melakukan pembatasan usia, tujuan, maupun jenis pekerjaan bagi migran wanita. kebijakan ini bertujuan untuk menekan jumlah migran wanita dalam upaya meminimalisasi kasus-kasus yang terjadi pada migran wanita di negara tujuan. konsep mikro level menjelaskan pola migrasi wanita sebagai keputusan individual. keputusan untuk bermigrasi didasarkan pada keinginan migran wanita itu sendiri untuk bekerja di negara tujuan dalam rangka meningkatkan kesejahteraan keluarganya. konsep mikro level banyak terjadi di negara berkembang termasuk indonesia dimana sebagian besar pelaku migrasi internasional adalah wanita, dengan harapan memperoleh penghasilan yang lebih besar di negara tujuan untuk dapat memenuhi kebutuhan keluarganya di negara asal. dalam memahami pendekatan mesolevel (hubungan sosial) oishi (2002) mengusulkan konsep “legitimasi sosial” sebagai alat ukurnya. legitimasi sosial diwujudkan sebagai normanorma dalam suatu masyarakat yang mendukung pola perilaku tertentu. legitimasi sosial untuk migran wanita artinya seperangkat norma yang kondusif dalam migrasi internasional, yang bersumber dari (1) warisan sejarah, (2) integrasi negara dalam perekonomian global, (3) mobilitas wanita, dan (4) kesetaraan gender khususnya dalam hal pendidikan. keputusan wanita bermigrasi dipengaruhi oleh kondisi sosial masyarakat wilayah asalnya, bagaimana pandangan masyarakat terhadap migrasi wanita, adanya pelarangan atau penolakan wanita untuk bermigrasi atau sebaliknya adanya dukungan dari masyarakat bagi para migran wanita. hasil penelitian robert ssengonz, gordon f. de jong, c shannon stokes (2002) menunjukan bahwa arus migrasi berpengaruh signifikan terhadap kelangsungan hidup bayi dan anak. 10 persen anak meninggal sebelum usia lima tahun tergantung dari status migrasi ibunya. variable lain yang signifikan terhadap kelangsungan hidup anak adalah pendidikan orang tua, banyaknya anggota keluarga, usia ibu, lama menyusui, dan lokasi tujuan migrasi sang ibu. penelitian juan ponce et all menunjukan bahwa remitansi berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap pengeluaran keluarga migran untuk makanan, biaya sekolah, dan pembelian obat-obatan. namun penelitian ini belum menemukan dampak signifikan terhadap pembangunan sumber daya manusianya. remitansi hanya berpengaruh terhadap pengeluaran dalam bidang kesehatan dan pendidikan, dan pengurangan kemiskinan dalam jangka pendek, sedangkan untuk 100 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, april 2016: 97-102 mengalisis dampak terhadap pembangunan manusia untuk melihat hasilnya diperlukan waktu yang panjang. hasil penelitian ceps/instead, luxembourg and cresuniversity of dakar, senegal (2011) menunjukan bahwa migrasi memiliki dampak yang signifikan terhadap pendaftaran di sekolah (untuk migran tujuan eropa). semakin banyak jumlah anggota keluarga yang bermigrasi dalam rumah tangga, namun tingkat kehadiran anak-anak di sekilah (7-12 tahun) cenderung menurun dan lebih banyak menjadi pekerja anak. metode penelitian model 1: analisis pengaruh faktor ekonomi dan non ekonomi terhadap pendidikan anak e= β0 + β1 educexp + β2 age + β3 educ + β4dep + β5resp + ɛ model 2: analisis pengaruh faktor ekonomi dan non ekonomi terhadap kesehatan anak h = β0 + β1 healthexp + β2 age + β3 educ + β4 dep + β5 resp + ɛ dimana : e: nilai raport anak h: frekuensi sakit anak educexp: proporsi remitansi yang dialokasikan untuk pendidikan healthexp: proporsi remitansi yang dialokasikan untuk kesehatan age: usia anak educ: tingkat pendidikan kepala keluarga dep: tingkat dependensi anak/frekuensi keberangkatan tkw resp: peran tanggung jawab pengasuhan anak hasil dan pembahasan dengan menggunakan model analisis probit terhadap 56 rumah tangga di kabupaten cianjur dan 48 rumah tangga di kabupaten indramayu, diperoleh hasil sebagai berikut: tabel 1. pengaruh faktor ekonomi dan non ekonomi terhadap pendidikan anak variabel z hitung prob pengaruh educexp 1.974905 0.0483 signifikan pada α 5% age -2.377830 0.0174 signifikan pada α 5% educ 1.853670 0.0638 signifikan pada α 10% dep -0.413171 0.6795 tidak signifikan resp 1.333223 0.1825 tidak signifikan tabel 2 pengaruh faktor ekonomi dan non ekonomi terhadap kesehatan anak variabel z hitung prob pengaruh healthexp -1.422347 0.1549 tidak signifikan age -2.157694 0.0310 signifikan pada α 5% educ 0.030748 0.9755 tidak signifikan dep 0.499963 0.6171 tidak signifikan resp 2.520597 0.0117 signifikan pada α 5% analisis kualitas pendidikan dan kesehatan anak… (ferry hadiyanto) 101 tabel 3. pengaruh faktor ekonomi dan non ekonomi terhadap pendidikan dan kesehatan anak secara menyeluruh variabel lr hitung prob pengaruh e 13.72344 0.017465 signifikan pada α 5% h 10.45588 0.063302 signifikan pada α 10% hasil uji secara parsial menunjukan bahwa pengeluaran pendidikan, usia anak, pendidikan kepala keluarga berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap kualitas pendidikan anak. pengeluaran pendidikan dan pendidikan kepala keluarga berpengaruh positif terhadap kualitas pendidikan anak, dimana semakin besar pengeluaran pendidikan dan semakin tinggi pendidikan kepala keluarga maka semakin baik pula kualitas pendidikan anak. sedangkan variabel usia berpengaruh negatif dimana semakin bertambah usia anak, maka semakin rendah kualitas pendidikan anak. dengan demikian terdapat faktor internal dari dalam diri anak yang mempengaruhi kualitas pendidikannya seperti motivasi belajar. variabel kesehatan anak seperti pada tabel 2 menunjukan bahwa variabel usia anak dan responsibility berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap kualitas kesehatan anak. usia anak berpengaruh negatif terhadap kualitas kesehatan anak, semakin bertambah usia anak maka semakin rendah kualitas kesehatan anak dimana anak semakin sering mengalami sakit. variabel responsibility berpengaruh positif terhadap kualitas kesehatan anak, anak yang dirawat oleh ayahnya cenderung lebih jarang mengalami sakit dibandingkan dengan anak yang dirawat oleh anggota keluarga lain. artinya fungsi tanggung jawab dalam pengasuhan anak pada saat ibu bekerja di luar negeri mempengaruhi kualitas pendidikan maupun kesehatan anak. hasil uji secara menyeluruh menunjukan bahwa kelima variabel independen berpengaruh signifikan terhadap variabel dependen. dimana remitansi, usia anak, pendidikan kepala keluarga, dependensi, dan responsibility berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pendidikan dan kesehatan anak. simpulan berdasarkan hasil penelitian diatas, beberapa hal yang dapat disimpulkan adalah sebagai berikut:  pengeluaran pendidikan, usia anak, dan pendidikan kepala keluarga berpengaruh signifikan terhadap kualitas pendidikan anak.  usia anak, dan tanggung jawab pengasuhan anak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap kesehatan anak. daftar pustaka bakker, caroline. 2009. the impact of migration on children in the caribbean; unicef office for barbados and eastern caribbean. carballo, manuel. 2005. international migration and health. global commision on international migration: a paper prepared for the policy analysis and research programme. chotib. 2010. mobilitas penduduk: migrasi. kajian kependudukan dan ketenagakerjaan. program pasca sarjana ui. danim, sudarwan. 2004. ekonomi sumber daya manusia. bandung: cv pustaka setia. oishi, nana.2002.gender and migration: an integrative approach.ccis university of california san diego; working paper 49. ponce, juan. 2008. a case study of the impact of remittances on human development in ecuador. facultad latinoamericana de ciencias sociales (flacso) – ecuador. 102 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, april 2016: 97-102 ppk-psdm unpad. 2007. studi remitansi tenaga kerja wanita indonesia; pola, dampak, dan implikasi kebijakan. lembaga penelitian; universitas padjajaran. ssengonzi, robert. 2002. the effect of female migration on infant survival in uganda. kluwer academic publisher. widarjono, agus. 2005. ekonometrika teori dan aplikasi. yogyakarta: fe uii. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016, hlm. 157-167 doi: 10.18196/jesp.17.2.3957 determinan ketahanan modal bank syariah di indonesia: pendekatan ecm giras risti wilara, agus tri basuki program studi ekonomi pembangunan fakultas ekonomi, universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta email korespondensi: agustri.umy@gmail.com naskah diterima: juli 2016; disetujui: oktober 2016 abstract: this research aims to analyze the impact of return on assets (roa), financing to deposit ratio (fdr), operational expense to operational income (bopo), and inflation on capital adequacy ratio (car) in both short and long term. the object of this research is shari’ah banks in indonesia by gaining the data from january 2013 to june 2015 from information published by some institutions such as financial services authority (ojk) and central bureau of statistics (bps). the data were analyzed by error correction model (ecm) method. based on the analysis, the result shows that roa and inflation have positive and significant influence toward car, fdr has positive and negative influence toward car, whereas bopo has no influence toward car. besides, there is a short term and long term relationship between roa, fdr, and inflation toward car. keywords: shari’ah bank, capital adequacy ratio, ecm model jel classifications: g21, c80, g32 abstrak: penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis bagaimana pengaruh return on assets (roa), pembiayaan terhadap rasio deposito (fdr), biaya operasional terhadap pendapatan operasional (bopo), dan inflasi terhadap capital adequacy ratio (car) baik dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang. objek penelitian ini adalah bank syariah di indonesia dengan memperoleh data selama bulan januari 2013-juni 2015. dalam penelitian ini, sampel sebanyak 30 data didapat dari informasi yang diterbitkan oleh beberapa institusi seperti otoritas jasa keuangan (ojk) dan biro pusat statistik (bps). data dianalisis dengan metode analisis error correction model (ecm). berdasarkan hasil analisis, hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa roa dan inflasi berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap car, fdr berpengaruh positif dan negatif terhadap car, sedangkan bopo tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap car. selain itu, ada hubungan jangka pendek dan panjang antara roa, fdr, dan inflasi terhadap car. keywords: bank syariah, capital adequacy ratio (car), model ecm klasifikasi jel: g21, c80, g32 158 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016: 157-167 pendahuluan indikator kesehatan perbankan yang sangat penting yaitu indikator modal. indikator modal perbankan harus dikedepankan mengingat dalam mekanismenya perbankan merupakan industri yang usahanya mengandalkan kepercayaan masyarakat. kesehatan bank yang dapat dilihat dengan indikator modal sudah seharusnya dipergunakan masyarakat untuk membangun kepercayaan dalam menyerahkan dananya pada bank. hal ini mengingat citra perbankan nasional yang ternodai oleh berbagai kasus penyelewengan dana nasabah oleh pihak manajemen bank, maupun masalah perbankan yang tidak liquid (fatimah, 2014). penilaian tingkat kesehatan bank di indonesia saat ini secara garis besar didasarkan pada faktor camel (capital, assets quality, management, earning dan liquidity). kelima faktor tersebut merupakan faktor yang menentukan kondisi suatu bank. apabila suatu bank mengalami permasalahan yang menyangkut salah satu faktor tersebut, maka akan mengalami kesulitan. dalam dunia perbankan, modal merupakan salah satu bagian terpenting untuk mengetahui kondisi kesehatan bank. sehat atau tidaknya sebuah bank akan menentukan pula kondisi perbankan yang akan datang apakah masih bertahan atau mengalami kebangkrutan. secara sederhana, bank yang sehat adalah bank yang dapat menjaga dan memelihara kepercayaan masyarakat, dapat menjalankan fungsi intermediasi, dapat membantu kelancaran lalu lintas pembayaran serta dapat digunakan oleh pemerintah dalam melaksanakan berbagai kebijakan. demi menciptakan perbankan yang sehat, bi telah mengeluarkan program arsitektur perbankan indonesia (api) yaitu program penguatan struktur perbankan nasional yang bertujuan untuk memperkuat permodalan bank dalam rangka meningkatkan kemampuan bank mengelola usaha maupun resiko. upaya pemerintah yang lain yaitu dengan dikeluarkannya peraturan bank indonesia nomor: 6/10/pbi/2004 tentang sistem penilaian tingkat kesehatan bank umum. ketentuan yang salah satu diantaranya adalah mengatur tentang permodalan bank (car) minimum sebesar 8%. salah satu cara untuk menguji kecukupan modal adalah dengan melihat rasio modal itu terhadap berbagai aset bank yang bersangkutan, yakni melalui car (capital adequacy ratio). penilaian tersebut dapat diukur dengan dua cara, yaitu membandingkan modal dengan dana-dana pihak ketiga dan membandingkan modal dengan aktiva berisiko. dalam perjalanannya, rasio kecukupan modal (car) pada perbankan syariah perlu memperhatikan faktor eksternal dan internal yang dapat mempengaruhi kegiatan mereka. salah satu faktor eksternal yang berkaitan dengan kecukupan modal (car) adalah inflasi. semenatara itu, faktor internal yang harus diperhatikan oleh bank syariah dalam memperhatikan kesehatan bank meliputi profitabilitas, likuiditas, dan efisiensi. untuk memenuhi kecukupan modal minimum atau untuk standar car yang sehat, maka bank harus mampu menghasilkan profit atau yang biasa disebut profitabilitas. rasio profitabilitas merupakan aspek untuk mengetahui kemampuan bank dalam menghasilkan keuntungan. penilaiannya dapat dilakukan dengan menggunakan rasio return on assets (roa). masalah profitabilitas ini sangat penting bagi perkembangan suatu bank karena menyangkut masalah kepercayaan masyarakat yang akan menyimpan dananya di bank. salah satu cara bank untuk memaksimalkan profitabilitasnya adalah dengan memperhatikan tingkat likuiditas perusahaannya. melihat fenomena perbankan di indonesia tidak likuid determinan ketahanan modal bank syariah di indonesia… (giras risti wilara, agus tri basuki) 159 karena car yang tidak mencukupi, dapat dilihat bahwa terdapat hubungan antara rasio likuiditas dengan car, di mana likuiditas merupakan kemampuan bank dalam memenuhi kewajiban jangka pendeknya saat ditagih (kasmir, 2009). dalam hal ini, likuiditas tersebut dijelaskan oleh financing to deposit ratio (fdr), yaitu rasio antara seluruh jumlah pembiayaan yang diberikan dengan dana yang diterima bank (dendawijaya, 2005). berdasarkan pengertian tersebut, dapat dilihat hubungan fdr dengan car, yaitu saat fdr tinggi yang disebabkan pembiayaan tinggi sedangkan dana yang dihimpun sedikit dapat menyebabkan car menurun (dengan asumsi car digunakan untuk menutupi kekurangan dana tersebut). bopo diukur secara kuantitatif dengan menggunakan rasio efisiensi. rasio ini mengukur apakah manajemen bank telah menggunakan semua faktor produksinya dengan efektif dan efisien. ada pun, efisien usaha bank diukur melalui biaya operasional yang dibandingkan dengan pendapatan operasional (bopo). bopo merupakan rasio perbandingan biaya operasional terhadap pendapatan operasional. rasio ini digunakan untuk mengukur tingkat efisiensi dan kemampuan bank dalam melakukan kegiatan operasinya terutama kredit (dendawijaya, 2005). sama halnya dengan roa, secara teoritis bopo juga memiliki hubungan dengan car, dengan asumsi semakin efisien bank menghasilkan laba melalui biaya operasionalnya, semakin meningkat pula modal yang ditanamkannya. selama periode pengamatan (januari 2013 – juni 2015) perkembangan variabel-variabel yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini dapat dilihat dari tabel dibawah ini: tabel 1. perkembangan car, roa, fdr, bopo, dan inflasi pada bank umum syariah indonesia periode 2012-2014 tahun car (persen) roa (persen) fdr (persen) bopo (persen) inflasi (persen) 2012 14,13% 2,14% 100,00% 74,97% 4,30% 2013 14,42% 2,00% 100,32% 78,21% 8,38% 2014 15,74% 0,79% 91,50% 94,16% 8,36% sumber: bank indonesia berdasarkan tabel di atas, dapat dilihat bahwa perolehan rata-rata car bank umum syariah mengalami kenaikan setiap tahunnya, yaitu sebesar 14,13% pada tahun 2012, lalu sedikit naik pada tahun 2013 menjadi 14,42%, dan naik pada tahun 2014 menjadi 15,74%. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa rata-rata rasio car berada di atas 8% sehingga dapat dikatakan bahwa kondisi permodalan bank umum syariah di indonesia selama periode 2012-2014 berada dalam kondisi sehat. rata-rata roa bank umum syariah indonesia pada tahun 2012-2014 cenderung menurun. seperti yang dilihat pada tabel 1, nilai roa pada tahun 2012 sebesar 2,14% dan terus menurun hingga tahun 2014 sebesar 0,79%. hal ini menunjukkan hubungan negatif dengan car, di mana menurunnya roa diikuti meningkatnya car. semakin besar roa suatu bank, semakin besar pula tingkat keuntungan yang dicapai bank tersebut dan semakin baik pula posisi bank tersebut dari segi penggunaan asset sehingga car yang merupakan indikator kesehatan bank menjadi berkurang nilainya dan sebaliknya jika bank meraih untung maka modalnya akan bertambah (masyhud, 2006). rata-rata fdr bank umum syariah indonesia pada tahun 2012-2014 cenderung fluktuatif, seperti yang dilihat pada tabel 1 bahwa nilai fdr pada tahun 2012 dari 100,00% naik 160 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016: 157-167 menjadi 100,32% pada tahun 2013 lalu menurun di tahun 2014 menjadi 91,50%. penurunan fdr tesebut disebabkan kondisi makro-ekonomi yang belum stabil, sehingga perbankan syariah membatasi pembiayaan. namun, berdasarkan surat edaran bank indonesia no 26/5/bppp tanggal 29 mei 1993, besarnya fdr telah ditentukan oleh bank indonesia tidak boleh melebihi 110% (muhammad, 2005:55). hal ini menunjukkan bahwa rata-rata fdr pada tahun 2012-2014 berada di bawah 110% sehingga dapat dikatakan kondisi fdr bank umum syariah di indonesia selama periode 2012-2014 dalam kondisi yang baik. rata-rata bopo bank umum syariah indonesia pada tahun 2012 mencapai 74,97% dan cenderung mengalami peningkatan hingga akhir tahun 2014, yaitu mencapai 94,16%. hal ini menunjukkan hubungan yang positif dengan car, di mana meningkatnya bopo diikuti meningkatnya car. dengan asumsi semakin efisien bank menghasilkan laba melalui biaya operasionalnya, semakin meningkat pula modal yang ditanamkannya. rata-rata inflasi di indonesia pada tahun 2012-2014 cenderung fluktuatif, yakni pada tahun 2012 nilainya mencapai 4,30%, kemudian meningkat pada tahun 2013 menjadi 8,38% lalu sedikit menurun menjadi 8,36% di tahun 2014. keadaan inflasi yang tinggi menunjukkan hubungan positif dengan car mengingat ketika tingkat inflasi tinggi, kecenderungan harga barang-barang menjadi naik sehingga pemerintah akan menerapkan kebijakan moneter untuk mengatasi masalah tersebut dengan cara menaikkan suku bunga perbankan agar masyarakat menabung di bank. dengan masuknya dana masyarakat yang dihimpun oleh bank, maka akan semakin bagus tingkat kesehatan modal bank itu sendiri dan nilainya akan jauh dari tingkat minimum. definisi bank syariah menurut muhammad (2000:62) adalah bank yang beroperasi tanpa mengandalkan bunga. bank tersebut merupakan lembaga keuangan yang kegiatan operasional dan produknya dikembangkan berlandaskan pada alquran dan hadits nabi muhammad saw. dengan kata lain, bank syariah adalah lembaga keuangan yang usaha pokoknya memberi pembiayaan dan jasa-jasa lainnya dalam lalu lintas pembayaran serta peredaran uang yang pengoperasiannya disesuaikan dengan prinsipprinsip syariat islam. penelitian edginarda (2012) menunjukkan bahwa roa berpengaruh signifikan positif, bopo signifikan negatif, sementara ldr tidak berpengaruh terhadap car pada kasus bankbank pemerintah di indonesia selama periode 2003-2010. secara simultan roa, bopo, dan ldr berpengaruh terhadap car. sementara itu, penelitian sakinah (2013) menyimpulkan bahwa roa, fdr, dan inflasi secara parsial memiliki pengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap car, nilai tukar secara parsial tidak berpengaruh terhadap car pada kasus bank syariah di indonesia selama periode maret 2009-desember 2011. secara simultan, roa, fdr, nilai tukar, dan inflasi bersama-sama berpengaruh terhadap car. sama halnya dengan penelitian fatimah (2014), disimpulkan bahwa roa berpengaruh negatif signifikan terhadap car, bopo berpengaruh positif signifikan, dan fdr berpengaruh negatif signifikan terhadap car untuk kasus bank umum syariah di indonesia. selain itu, terdapat pula hubungan jangka panjang antara bopo dan fdr terhadap car, sementara dalam jangka pendek terdapat hubungan antara roa, bopo dan fdr terhadap car. penelitian yuliyani (2015) menyatakan bahwa secara parsial alr dan bopo berpengaruh signifikan terhadap car, namun determinan ketahanan modal bank syariah di indonesia… (giras risti wilara, agus tri basuki) 161 qr dan roa tidak berpengaruh signifikan untuk kasus bank umum yang terdaftar di bei selama periode 2009-2013. secara simultan alr, qr, roa, dan bopo terbukti berpengaruh signifikan terhadap car. metode penelitian dalam menganalisis besarnya pengaruh roa, fdr, bopo, dan inflasi terhadap car pada bank umum syariah di indonesia, model ecm (error correction model) dipergunakan dalam penelitian ini. model ecm ini mampu menguji konsisten tidaknya model empiris dengan teori ekonomi serta dalam pemecahannya terhadap variabel runtut waktu yang tidak stasioner dan regresi lancung. error correction model juga merupakan alat ekonometrika yang digunakan dengan tujuan untuk mengidentifikasikan hubungan jangka panjang dan jangka pendek yang terjadi karena adanya kointegrasi di antara variabel penelitian. metode ini merupakan regresi tunggal yang menghubungkan diferensi pertama pada variabel terikat (∆yt) dan diferensi pertama untuk semua variabel bebas dalam model. dalam melakukan estimasi, parameter-parameter yang diestimasi harus linier sehingga dipergunakan fungsi log. model umum dari ecm adalah sebagai berikut: untuk mengetahui spesifikasi model dengan ecm merupakan model yang valid, dapat dilihat pada hasil uji statistik terhadap residual dari regresi pertama, yang selanjutnya akan disebut error correction term (ect). jika hasil pengujian terhadap koefisien ect signifikan, maka spesifikasi model yang diamati valid. model ecm dalam penelitian ini adalah: keterangan: lncart = capital adequacy ratio roat = return on assets fdrt = financing to deposit ratio bopot = operational expense to operational income inft = inflasi β0 = intercept / konstanta µt = residual ∆ = perubahan t = periode waktu ect = error correction term hasil dan pembahasan 1. hasil uji stasionaritas data sebelum melakukan regresi dengan uji ecm, terlebih dahulu dilakukan uji stasionaritas untuk mengetahui apakah variabel yang digunakan telah stasioner atau tidak. bila data tidak stasioner maka akan diperoleh regresi yang palsu (spurious) sehingga timbul fenomena autokorelasi dan juga kita tidak akan dapat menggeneralisasi regresi tersebut untuk waktu yang berbeda. dalam hal ini, dilakukan uji akar unit melalui metode augmented dickey-fuller dengan hasil sebagai berikut: tabel 2. hasil uji akar unit level 1st difference prob. car 0,0213** 0,0008*** prob. roa 0,0113** 0,0000*** prob. fdr 0,1397 0,0000*** prob. bopo 0,7394 0,0000*** prob. inflasi 0,0007*** 0,0001*** sumber: data diolah pada tabel 2, dapat diketahui bahwa pada pengujian level tidak ada variabel yang stasioner karena nilai probabilitas seluruh variabel besarnya di atas 0,05. pada 1st difference, seluruh variabel diketahui stasioner mengingat nilai probability seluruh variabel besarnya di bawah 0,05. 162 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016: 157-167 2. estimasi persamaan jangka panjang hasil estimasi persamaan jangka panjang pada penelitian ini adalah sebagai berikut: tabel 3. estimasi jangka panjang coeffiecient probability roa 0,637504 0,0192** fdr -0,159798 0,0011*** bopo -0,016747 0,4634 inflasi 0,543770 0,0069*** prob.(f-statistic) 0,000024*** sumber: data diolah pada tabel 3, nilai probabilitas f-statistik sebesar 0,000024, atau lebih kecil dari 0,05, yang menunjukkan speed of adjustment persamaan jangka panjang yang ada adalah valid. nilai probabilitas variabel roa (0,0192), fdr (0,0011) dan inflasi (0,0069) yang besarnya di bawah 0,05 menunjukkan bahwa variabel roa, fdr dan inflasi memiliki pengaruh jangka panjang terhadap variabel car. 3. uji kointegrasi uji kointegrasi digunakan untuk memberikan indikasi awal bahwa model yang digunakan memiliki hubungan jangka panjang. pengujian kointegrasi pada penelitian ini dilakukan dengan melakukan pengujian augmented dicker fulley unit root test terhadap data residual dengan hasil sebagai berikut: tabel 4. hasil uji akar unit data residu variabel probability keterangan ect 0,0101** ada kointegrasi pada tabel 4, dapat diketahui bahwa nilai probabilitas variabel ect besarnya di bawah 0,05 (α). hal tersebut memberikan informasi bahwa variabel ect stationer pada level dan secara tersirat menyatakan bahwa variabel car, bopo, fdr, roa dan inflasi saling berkointegrasi sehingga pengujian dapat dilanjutkan ke tahap estimasi persamaan jangka pendek. 4. model ecm model ecm yang baik dan valid harus memiliki ect yang signifikan. ect mengukur respon regressand setiap periode yang menyimpang dari keseimbangan (iqbal, 2015). model ecm pada penelitian ini adalah sebagai berikut: tabel 5. model ecm coeffiecient probability d(roa) 0,434927 0,0267** d(fdr) -0,130214 0,0031*** d(bopo) -0,026381 0,2644 d(inflasi) 0,511583 0,0016*** ect(-1) -0,553915 0,0119*** r2 0,672610 adjusted r2 0,601438 prob.(f-statistic) 0,000053*** sumber: data diolah pada tabel 5, diketahui nilai probabilitas f-statistik sebesar 0,000053 yang besarnya lebih kecil dari 0,05 (α) dan nilai ect(-1) yang menunjukkan speed of adjustment negatif dan signifikan sehingga dapat disimpulkan bahwa model ecm ini valid dan berpengaruh secara signifikan dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang. nilai adjusted r2 sebesar 0,601438 atau 60,14% menunjukkan bahwa sekitar 39,86% keragaman variabel car dipengaruhi oleh variabel bebas di luar model. hasil estimasi persamaan jangka pendek menunjukkan bahwa dalam jangka pendek perubahan roa, fdr, dan inflasi memberikan pengaruh signifikan terhadap car di mana roa dan inflasi memberikan pengaruh positif pada car, sementara fdr berpengaruh negatif. besar koefisien ect sebesar 0,553915 mempunyai makna bahwa perbedaan antara car dengan nilai determinan ketahanan modal bank syariah di indonesia… (giras risti wilara, agus tri basuki) 163 keseimbangannya sebesar 0,553915 akan disesuaikan dalam waktu 1 tahun. 5. uji asumsi klasik a. uji multikolinieritas multikolinearitas menunjukkan adanya hubungan linier antar variabel independen di dalam model regresi. hasil pengujian multikolineartias antar variabel independen adalah sebagai berikut: tabel 6. hasil uji multikolinearitas car roa fdr bopo inflasi car 1,000000 0,562090 -0,453407 -0,108707 0,387205 roa 0,562090 1,000000 -0,008458 -0,555420 0,206103 fdr -0,453407 -0,008458 1,000000 -0,494266 0,132358 bopo -0,108707 -0,555420 -0,494266 1,000000 -0,073588 inflasi 0,387205 0,206103 0,132358 -0,073588 1,000000 sumber: data diolah hasil pengujian pada tabel 6 tidak menemukan adanya nilai matriks korelasi yang besarnya di atas 0,85. dengan demikian, dapat disimpulkan bahwa tidak terdapat masalah multikolinearitas dalam model ini. b. uji heterokedastisitas heterokedastisitas dapat menyebabkan penaksiran menjadi bias (basuki dan yuliadi, 2014). pendeteksian heterokedastisitas dilakukan dengan teknik uji white heterokedasticity sebagai berikut: tabel 7. hasil uji heterokedastisitas white f-statistic 0,298197 prob,f (14,15) 0,9854 obs*r2 6,531650 prob, chisquare (14) 0,9513 sumber: data diolah nilai probabilitas chi square dari obs*r2 sebesar 0,9513, yang besarnya lebih dari 0,05 menunjukkan bahwa tidak terdapat heterokedastisitas dalam model ecm. c. uji autokorelasi uji autokorelasi menunjukkan adanya korelasi antara serangkaian observasi (basuki dan yuliadi, 2014). pendeteksian autokorelasi dilakukan dengan teknik lagrange multiplier sebagai berikut: tabel 8. hasil uji autokorelasi lagrange multiplier f-statistic 3,768475 prob,f (3,22) 0,0641 obs*r2 4,071317 prob, chisquare (3) 0,0436 sumber: data diolah nilai prob, chi square dari obs*r2 sebesar 0,0436 yang besarnya lebih kecil dari 0,05 sehingga menunjukkan bahwa tidak terdapat autokorelasi dalam model ecm. d. uji normalitas uji normalitas dalam penelitian ini dilakukan dengan teknik uji jarque-berra dengan hasil sebagai berikut: 164 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016: 157-167 tabel 9. hasil uji normalitas jarque-berra jarque-berra probability keterangan 0,318033 0,852982 normal sumber: data diolah nilai probability sebesar 0,852982 yang besarnya lebih besar 0,05 menunjukkan bahwa data yang digunakan dalam model ecm berdistribusi normal. e. uji linieritas uji linieritas dalam penelitian ini dilakukan dengan teknik uji ramsey reset sebagai berikut: tabel 10. hasil uji linieritas ramsey reset value df probability t-statistic 0,375793 24 0,7104 f-statistic 0,141220 (1,24) 0,7104 likelihood ratio 0,176008 1 0,6748 sumber: data diolah nilai probabilitas f-statistik sebesar 0,7104 yang besarnya lebih besar dari 0,05 menunjukkan bahwa model ecm yang digunakan sudah tepat. f. uji signifikansi hasil estimasi dengan menggunakan model analisis error correction model (ecm) ditampilkan pada tabel berikut: tabel 11. hasil regresi persamaan ecm variable coefficient t-statistic probabilitas c 0.000092 0.073794 0.9418 roa 0.434927 2.367505 0.0267** fdr -0.130214 -3.303825 0.0031*** bopo -0.026381 -1.144048 0.2644 inflasi 0.511583 3.587163 0.0016*** ect(-1) -0.553915 -2.731464 0.0119** f-statistic 9.450522 prob(f-statistic) 0.000053*** adjusted r-squared 0.601438 durbin-watson stst 2.059850 sumber: data diolah dari tabel di atas, dapat disusun persamaan model ecm sebagai berikut: a. interpretasi koefisien jangka panjang dan jangka pendek berdasarkan hasil dari pengujian statistik yang dilakukan pada tabel 11, dapat diketahui bahwa regresi yang dihasilkan cukup baik untuk menerangkan variabelvariabel yang dapat mempengaruhi capital adequacy ratio (car). dari keempat variabel independen (roa, fdr, bopo, dan inflasi) yang dimasukkan ke dalam pengujian statistik dan ekonometrik, ternyata tidak semua variabel berpengaruh secara signifikan dan mempunyai pengaruh jangka panjang ataupun jangka pendek. determinan ketahanan modal bank syariah di indonesia… (giras risti wilara, agus tri basuki) 165 berdasarkan hasil pengujian yang telah dilakukan di atas, dapat dianalisis sebagai berikut: 1. return on assets (roa) koefisien jangka panjang roa sebesar 0.637504 dengan signifikansi 0.0192. hal ini berarti dalam jangka panjang, setiap perubahan roa sebesar 1% akan mengakibatkan perubahan dalam car sebesar 0.637504%. sedangkan dalam jangka pendek, koefisien roa sebesar 0.434927 dengan signifikansi 0.0267, yang berarti setiap peningkatan roa dalam jangka pendek sebesar 1% akan menyebabkan perubahan dalam car sebesar 0,434927. karena nilai koefisien dalam jangka panjang maupun jangka pendek roa menunjukkan nilai signifikansi lebih kecil dari 0,05, maka dapat disimpulkan bahwa roa berpengaruh signifikan dan positif terhadap car sehingga hipotesis yang diajukan yaitu roa berpengaruh signifikan dan positif terhadap car pada bank umum syariah di indonesia diterima. hal ini mengindikasikan bahwa perubahan yang terjadi pada roa akan berpengaruh signifikan terhadap car. adanya hubungan positif antara roa dengan car dalam jangka panjang maupun jangka pendek memberikan artian bahwa roa akan membawa dampak dalam jangka panjang maupun jangka pendek. apabila roa mengalami kenaikan, maka dalam jangka panjang maupun jangka pendek pengaruh tersebut akan menjadi faktor yang meningkatkan car. semakin besar roa mengindikasikan keuntungan yang diperoleh bank umum syariah atas asset juga meningkat sehingga dalam jangka panjang maupun jangka pendek akan menambah kemampuan bank umum syariah dalam meningkatkan modal dan hal ini akan meningkatkan car. hasil penelitian ini mendukung hasil penelitian yang dilakukan oleh edginarda (2012) dan sakinah (2013) yang menunjukkan bahwa roa secara parsial berpengaruh signifikan positif terhadap car. hasil penelitian ini berbeda dengan penelitian fatimah (2014) yang menunjukkan bahwa roa berpengaruh negatif signifikan, dan berbeda dengan hasil penelitian yuliyani (2015) yang menunjukkan bahwa roa tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap car. 2. financing to deposit ratio (fdr) koefisien jangka panjang fdr adalah sebesar -0.159798 dengan signifikansi 0.0011. hal ini berarti dalam jangka panjang, perubahan fdr sebesar 1% akan mengakibatkan penurunan car sebesar 0.159798%. sedangkan koefisien jangka pendek fdr sebesar -0.130214 dengan signfikansi 0.0031, yang berarti dalam jangka pendek peningkatan fdr sebesar 1% akan menyebabkan penurunan car sebesar 0.130214%. karena nilai koefisien dalam jangka panjang maupun jangka pendek fdr negatif dengan nilai signifikansi lebih kecil dari 0.05, maka dapat disimpulkan bahwa fdr berpengaruh signifikan dan negatif terhadap car. adanya hubungan negatif antara fdr dengan car dalam jangka panjang maupun jangka pendek memberikan artian bahwa fdr akan membawa dampak dalam jangka panjang maupun jangka pendek. apabila fdr mengalami kenaikan yang disebabkan oleh pembiayaan tinggi sedangkan dana yang dihimpun sedikit, maka dalam jangka panjang maupun jangka pendek dapat menurunkan car sehingga kemampuan 166 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016: 157-167 bank dalam mengelola dana masih efektif dan efisien. hasil penelitian ini mendukung hasil penelitian yang dilakukan fatimah (2014) yang menunjukkan bahwa fdr berpengaruh negatif signifikan terhadap car. hasil penelitian ini berbeda dengan hasil penelitian sakinah (2013) yang menunjukkan bahwa fdr secara parsial memiliki pengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap car. 3. biaya operasional terhadap pendapatan operasional (bopo) koefisien jangka panjang bopo adalah 0.016747 dengan signifikansi 0.4634, sedangkan koefisien jangka pendek bopo adalah -0.026381 dengan signifikansi 0.2644. dengan demikian, kenaikan bopo tidak memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap car dalam jangka panjang maupun jangka pendek karena nilai signifikansinya lebih besar dari 0.05 yang berarti bahwa naik atau turunnya bopo tidak berpengaruh terhadap car baik dalam jangka panjang maupun jangka pendek. hasil penelitian ini berbeda dengan hasil penelitian edginarda (2012), yuliyani (2015) dan fatimah (2014) yang menunjukkan bahwa bopo memiliki pengaruh signifikan terhadap car. 4. inflasi koefisian jangka panjang inflasi sebesar 0.543770 dengan signifikansi 0.0069 yang berarti dalam jangka panjang, perubahan inflasi sebesar 1% akan meningkatkan car sebesar 0.543770%, sedangkan koefisien inflasi dalam jangka pendek sebesar 0.511583 dengan signifikansi 0.0016 menunjukkan bahwa kenaikan inflasi sebesar 1% akan menyebabkan perubahan car sebesar 0.511583% dalam jangka pendek. karena nilai koefisien inflasi dalam jangka panjang maupun jangka pendek positif dengan nilai signifikansi lebih kecil dari 0.05, maka dapat disimpulkan bahwa inflasi berpengaruh signifikan dan positif terhadap car. hasil penelitian ini mendukung hasil penelitian yang dilakukan oleh sakinah (2013) yang menunjukkan bahwa inflasi memiliki pengaruh signifikan positif terhadap car. simpulan 1. return on assets (roa) dalam jangka panjang ataupun jangka pendek, berpengaruh signifikan positif terhadap car pada bank umum syariah di indonesia. hal ini mengindikasikan bahwa setiap peningkatan roa akan mempengaruhi modal bank tersebut sehingga nantinya berimplikasi pada peningkatan car. 2. financing to deposit ratio (fdr) dalam jangka panjang dan jangka pendek, berpengaruh signifikan negatif terhdap car. hal tersebut menjelaskan bahwa fdr akan mengakibatkan penurunan car dalam jangka panjang dan jangka pendek. apabila fdr mengalami peningkatan yang disebabkan oleh tingginya pembiayaan, sedangkan dana yang dihimpun sedikit, maka akan berpengaruh terhadap turunnya car. 3. biaya operasional terhadap pendapatan operasional (bopo) tidak memiliki cukup bukti dalam mempengaruhi car. 2. dalam jangka pendek ataupun jangka panjang, inflasi berpengaruh signifikan positif terhadap car. daftar pustaka basuki, a. t., dan yuliadi, i., 2014, elektronik data prosesing (spss 15 dan eviews 7), danisa media, yogyakarta. dendawijaya, l., 2011, manajemen pebankan, ghalia indonesia, jakarta. determinan ketahanan modal bank syariah di indonesia… (giras risti wilara, agus tri basuki) 167 edginarda, c., 2012, “analisis pengaruh rasio rentabilitas dan likuiditas terhadap capital adequacy ratio pada bank pemerintah di indonesia periode 20032010”, skripsi manajemen, universitas hasanudin, makasar. fatimah, s., 2014, “pengaruh rentabilitas, efesiensi, dan likuiditas terhadap kecukupan modal bank umum syariah”, jurnal al-iqtishad, vol. vi no.1, januari, hal. 54-72. hasan iqbal. (2015). pokok-pokok materi statistik 2 (statistik inferentif). jakarta: bumi aksara kasmir. 2009. pengantar manajemen keuangan. jakarta: kencana muhammad, 2005. manajemen bank syariah. yogyakarta: upp amp ykpn masyhud. ali. 2006. manajemen risiko, strategi perbankan dan dunia usaha menghadapi tantangan globalisasi bisnis. pt. raja grafindo persada, jakarta sakinah, f., 2013, “faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi capital adequacy ratio pada bank syariah di indonesia periode maret 2009-desember 2011”, skripsi ilmu ekonomi dan studi pembangunan, universitas islam negeri syarif hidayatullah, jakarta. yuliyani, 2015, “pengaruh assets to loan ratio (alr), quick ratio (qr), return on assets (roa), dan operational expense to operational income (bopo) terhadap capital adequacy ratio (car) pada bank umum yang terdaftar di bei periode 2009-2013”, jurnal akuntansi, universitas maritim raja ali haji, tanjung pinang. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 22 nomor 1, april 2021 article type: research paper the determinants of musharaka financing in indonesia ayif fathurrahman1* and abriani sita devi1 abstract: the purpose of this study is to determine the determinants of musharaka financing in islamic commercial banks in indonesia, which was carried out using secondary data or quantitative data from the period of january 2015 to august 2019. the model used to analyze the results of this regression was the multiple linear the dependent variable used in the object of this study was musharaka financing, while the independent variables used in this study consisted of inflation, exchange rates (exchange rates), return on assets (roa), and thirdparty funds. from the results of the multiple linear regression analysis that has been processed, it can be explained that simultaneously the inflation, exchange rates (exchange rates), roa, and tpf have a significant effect on musharaka financing. however, partially the exchange rate (exchange rate), roa and tpf have a positive and significant effect on musharaka financing, while inflation has a positive and insignificant effect on musharaka financing at islamic commercial banks in indonesia. keywords: musharaka; financing; inflation; exchange rate; roa; tpf jel classification: g21, f62 introduction in the era of globalization, economic conditions have experienced changes and developments in many aspects of life. economic development cannot be separated from the role of the banking sector, which functions as an intermediary for the community when there is a money deficit and surplus (kasmir, 2012). in indonesia, there is dual banking systems, namely first, conventional banks which are commercial banks that carry out their performance using two methods, namely setting interest as the selling price and buying price or known as spread based, and setting fees in services or called fee-based (hardianti & saifi, 2018). second, islamic banks are banks that provide activities in the form of payment traffic services on the basis of sharia principles, economic democracy, and prudential principles based on the koran (yaya, martawireja, & abdurahim, 2009). the growth of islamic banks has experienced quite positive developments, especially in islamic commercial banks (bus). this growth is evidenced by the number of bus agencies, namely 14 units and 1,894 total offices. affiliation: 1 department of economics, faculty of economics and business, universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta, special region of yogyakarta, indonesia *correspondence: ayif.fathurrahman@umy.ac.id this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v22i1.10118 citation: fathurrahman, a., & devi, a.s. (2021). the determinants of musharaka financing in indonesia. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 22(1), 37-47. article history received: 01 nov 2020 revised: 26 mar 2021 accepted: 06 apr 2021 https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?user=hjfx9riaaaaj&hl=en https://economics-feb.umy.ac.id/ https://economics-feb.umy.ac.id/ https://economics-feb.umy.ac.id/ https://economics-feb.umy.ac.id/ https://economics-feb.umy.ac.id/ https://economics-feb.umy.ac.id/ mailto:ayif.fathurrahman@umy.ac.id http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/10118 https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v22i1.10118&domain=pdf fathurrahman & devi the determinants of musharaka financing in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 38 apart from the number of agencies and the number of offices, it can be seen from the total assets as of june 2019 that it has reached rp. 499 trillion. the market share of islamic banking to national banking has reached 5.95%. the high growth in assets cannot be separated from the growth in third-party funds and the growth in distribution of funds. fund collection growth increased by 396 trillion followed by distribution of public funds of 343 trillion (sps-ojk june 2019). the development of financing in 2019 at islamic commercial banks shows that murabahah financing still dominates other financing which reaches 49.95% of the total distribution of funds, while musharaka financing is in the second level after murabahah at 42.74%, mudharabah financing at 4.29%, ijarah financing at 3.25%, qardh at 2.75%, istishna at 0.56%, others at 0.28% (sps-ojk, 2019). figure 1 development of financing at islamic commercial banks in indonesia examining the information by figure 1, it can be explained that musharaka financing was relatively significant during june 2019 period. this means that almost 50% of the financing in islamic commercial banks is held by musharaka and causes the indonesian population to have a great interest in using the musharaka contract. this statement is reinforced by basyariah (2018) that the development of musharaka financing is relatively significant because current murabahah financing has deviated from the mission of sharia as a profitsharing based banking and has led some customers to choose musharaka because sharia principles are still pure. this is in line with kusmyati's (2019) research stating that musharaka has a contract concept that is in accordance with the islamic concept in carrying out cooperation and capital is obtained from both parties so that the risks that occur are shared which causes customers to use this financing. in the last five years, the development of musharaka financing at islamic commercial banks in indonesia can be seen in the figure 2. 0,00% 20,00% 40,00% 60,00% 0,28% 0,56% 2,75% 3,25% 4,29% 42,74% 49,95% financing fathurrahman & devi the determinants of musharaka financing in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 39 figure 2 musharaka financing observing the figure 2, it can be explained that from 2015 to 2019, musharaka financing has increased quite significantly, meaning that the development of musharaka financing shows positive results from year to year on the role of islamic banks in indonesia. the development of musharaka financing for islamic commercial banks in indonesia cannot be separated from various factors, such as bank specific variables (pratiwi, 2018; ovami & thohari, 2018; kusmiyati, 2019; and macroeconomic variables (priyanto, fahmi, & ismal, 2016; nahae & saker 2017; amelia & hardini, 2017). in addition, the virtue of musharaka financing is also a consideration, especially in the real sector of smes (trimulato, 2017). the novelty of this research is to link the study of the market share of islamic banking in indonesia, which is represented by third-party funds (tpf) variable, to musharaka financing. it also aims to determine the general relationship between the development of the market share of islamic banking and musharaka financing. research method the type of data used in this study is secondary data. this data collection technique is documentation that has been published by the financial services authority (ojk), bank indonesia, and the central bureau of statistics. the classical assumption test is used in a research to identify the presence or absence of a good linear estimator from the regression model, such as the normality test, multicollinearity test, heteroscedasticity test and autocorrelation test (basuki, 2017). this study used the multiple regression analysis model that can be used in stata. multiple regression analysis in this study was processed using analysis tools or often called stata 14.2 software. stata is a statistical program that is known for its completeness in processing research data through the ability of statistical functions (putra, widarsa, & astuti, 2016). the multiple regression model can be formulated as follows: 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 a p r1 5 a u g -1 5 d e c1 5 a p r1 6 a u g -1 6 d e c1 6 a p r1 7 a u g -1 7 d e c1 7 a p r1 8 a u g -1 8 d e c1 8 a p r1 9 a u g -1 9 musharaka financing pem musyarakah fathurrahman & devi the determinants of musharaka financing in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 40 y i = ᵝ0 + ᵝ1x1i + ᵝ2x2it + ᵝ3x3it + ᵝ4x4it + ei (1.1) explaination: y = musharaka financing ᵝ0 = intercept ᵝ1 ᵝ5 = regression coefficient x1 = inflation x2 = exchange rate x3 = roa x4 = tpf e = error the results of the normality test which explains that the test shows a good significance level mean that the data are normally distributed, and this can be proven by the probability value (prob> chi2) of 0.1172. based on the multicollinearity test, it can be explained that inflation has a vif value of 1.03 <10 and a 1 / vif value of 0.967829> 0.1, the exchange rate has a vif value of 1.76 <10 and a value of 1 / vif of 0.569152> 0.1, the roa ratio has a vif value of 2.97 <10 and a 1 / vif value of 0.336455> 0.1, while tpf has a vif value of 3.04 <10 and a value of 1 / vif of 0.328484. based on the heteroscedasticity test result, it can be concluded that the probability value of heteroscedasticity is 0.0028 <0.05, which means that this regression model has a problem. however, according to basuki (2017), one way to eliminate the problem of the heterocedasticity test is to improve the regression model which is transformed into a logarithmic form. based on the heteroscedasticity test with breusch-pagan, where the data has been transformed into a logarithmic form the probability value of heteroscedasticity is 0.1709> 0.05, meaning that in this regression model there is no heteroscedasticity problem. based on the autocorrelation test result, it can be concluded that the chi s-quare probability value is 0.0000, meaning that in this regression model there is an autocorrelation problem. based on the opinion of gujarati (2007), if there is an autocorrelation problem in the regression model, this regression model can be done by improving autocorrelation. this autocorrelation improvement can be done with first differences or derivatives. based on the autocorrelation test with the breusch-godfrey method, where the data has been transformed into a first difference form, the value of prob> chi2 autocorrelation is 0.1249> 0.05, meaning that in this regression model there is no autocorrelation problem because it is larger than 0.05. fathurrahman & devi the determinants of musharaka financing in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 41 result and discussion result data processing used in this research is stata software. the results of the estimation or data processing are presented in the table 1. table 1 multiple linear regression results msy coef. std. err. p > i t i [ 95% conf. interval ] inf 1209.604 1112.324 0.282 -1023.48 3442.689 er 2.02108 0.8338454 0.019 0.3470658 3.695095 roa 3326.528 1559.056 0.038 196.5923 6456.464 tpf 0.218359 0.016604 0.000 0.1850251 0.2516929 _cons -21828.79 10290.68 0.039 -42488.19 -1169.401 prob>f 0.0000 adj r-squared 0.9350 source: data processed. based on the table 1, the results of the multiple linear regression estimation is that the inflation variable has a probability value of 0.282 with a regression coefficient of 1209.604. this means that the probability value obtained has a value greater than 5% and the inflation coefficient has a positive value indicating that inflation has a positive but insignificant effect on musharaka financing at islamic commercial banks in indonesia. the inflation regression coefficient value is 1209.604. meaning that if inflation at islamic commercial banks has increased by 1% during january 2015 to august 2019, and then musharaka financing will increase by 1209.604. the exchange rate variable has a probability value of 0.019 with a regression coefficient of 2.02108. the probability value of 0.019 is less than 5% with a positive exchange rate coefficient indicating that the exchange rate has a positive and significant effect on musharaka financing at islamic commercial banks in indonesia. the coefficient value on the exchange rate is 2.02108, meaning that if the exchange rate at islamic commercial banks increases by 100 units during january 2015 to august 2019, then musharaka financing will increase by 2.02108. these results indicate that the higher the exchange rate, the higher the musharaka financing that is distributed to islamic commercial banks in indonesia. the return on asset (roa) ratio has a probability value of 0.038 with a coefficient level of 3326.528. with a probability value of 0.038 less than the alpha value of 5% and the regression coefficient level having a positive value, it means that roa has a significant positive effect on musharaka financing in islamic commercial banks. if there is an increase in roa of 1%, there will be an increase in musharaka financing by 3326.528. this means that the higher the roa at islamic commercial banks, the higher the musharaka financing at islamic commercial banks in indonesia. the ratio of third-party funds (tpf) has a probability value of 0.039 with a coefficient level of 0.218359. with a probability value of 0.039 which is smaller than the alpha value of 5% and the level of the regression coefficient having a positive value, it means that tpf has a fathurrahman & devi the determinants of musharaka financing in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 42 positive and significant effect on musharaka financing. if there is an increase in tpf by one billion, it will cause an increase in musharaka financing at islamic commercial banks in indonesia. this means that the higher the tpf ratio, the higher the musharaka financing that is distributed by islamic commercial banks. based on the table 1, the multiple linear regression analysis is that the adjusted r-squared value is 0.9350. it means that the value of r2 indicates that the independent variable such as inflation, exchange rate, roa, and tpf have an influence on musharaka financing by 93.50%, while the remaining 6.50% is explained by other variables outside of the inflation variable, exchange rate, roa and tpf. the regression analysis results shows that the prob> f value of 0.0000 is smaller than the value of α = 5% or equal to 0.05. thus it can be concluded that ho is rejected and ha is accepted, meaning that simultaneously the independent variables consisting of inflation, exchange rate, roa and tpf have a significant influence on musharaka financing at islamic commercial banks in indonesia. based on the results, it can be explained that the independent variable of inflation rate has a t-statistic value of 1.09 <t-table of 2.00665 with a probability value of 0.282 and a coefficient of 1209.604. therefore, the probability result obtained is greater than the value of α = 5% and the coefficient is positive. thus, it can be concluded that inflation has a positive and insignificant effect on musharaka financing. the results shows that the independent variable of exchange rate has a t-statistic value of 2.42> t-table of 2.00665 with a probability value of 0.019 and a coefficient of 2.02108. therefore, with the obtained probability result less than the value of α = 5% and the coefficient is positive, it can be concluded from these results that the exchange rate has a positive and significant effect on musharaka financing. the data processing result shows that the independent variable of roa has a t-statistic value of 2.13> t-table of 2.00665 with a probability value of 0.038 and a coefficient of 3326.528. therefore, with the obtained probability result less than α = 5% and the coefficient is positive, it can be concluded that the roa value has a positive and significant effect on musharaka financing. discussion the influence of inflation on musharaka financing inflation has no effect on musharaka financing at islamic commercial banks in indonesia because the results of this study indicate that in the vulnerable period of january 2015 to august 2019, inflation was still in a mild condition, which was below 10%, meaning that bank indonesia always pays attention to inflation developments and it causes bi must take actions or policies to maintain economic stability, even though inflation in this case is categorized as mild. therefore, the inflation rate cannot be said to be always bad, as long fathurrahman & devi the determinants of musharaka financing in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 43 as the inflation rate is still in a safe condition. it can be said to be bad or problematic inflation if the inflation is at a high enough value and is within the upnormal line. although inflation fluctuated during january 2015 to august 2019, it will not affect musharaka financing. on the contrary, musharaka financing will increase continuously, meaning that if there is inflation and people need capital for business, the public will go to islamic banks to propose financing. if inflation does not occur and at that time the community needs capital to open a business as well, the community will borrow money from the bank and inevitably the bank will channel funds or finance to people who need capital. according to theory, it can be explained that the effect of inflation depends on the degree. if the degree of inflation is high, it means that there will be a continuous price increase which will have an impact on customers in reducing their investment in the bank, while the degree of low inflation means that it will have an impact on encouraging customers to invest more money in the bank. so, the bank will not experience a deficit in channeling funds or financing to the public. indonesian central bank must maintain inflation rate in the safety level for financial industry by following determined inflation target through appropriate monetary policies (setiartiti & hapsari, 2019; fakhrunnas, 2020). it is broadly strengthened or in accordance with the research conducted by laelasari (2019) entitled the effect of inflation on the financing of micro, small and medium enterprises (msmes) in 2015-2016 at bprs al-masoem and research by amelia and hardini (2017) with the research title of the determinant of mudharabah financing a study at indonesian islamic rural banking which state that inflation has no significant effect on musharaka financing. however, this opinion is contrary and inconsistent with the research conducted by nahar and sarker (2016) entitled the are economic factors substantially influential for islamic banking financing? cross-country evidence, which explains that inflation has an effect on financing. the effect of exchange rates on musharaka financing from the results of research conducted in the 2015 to august 2019 period, it shows that the exchange rate variable has a positive and significant influence on musharaka financing. in addution, it can be concluded that if the exchange rate depreciates, this is influenced by economic conditions in the united states where the dollar is getting stronger. besides, that the balance sheet trade is in deficit because the country's low exports cause many imported products to enter the country. the increase in the exchange rate will have an impact on domestic goods that are increasingly expensive compared to cheaper foreign products, so that it will reduce the production in domestic products and consequently the need for business capital and investment funds is reduced. however, the positive effect of the exchange rate on musharaka financing does not reduce the activities carried out by islamic banks in financing the public. this is because the depreciation of the exchange rate in the study year is in a stable condition and does not occur in a long period of time. fathurrahman & devi the determinants of musharaka financing in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 44 statement above is in line with research conducted by amelia and hardini (2017) with the title of determinant of mudharabah financing a study at indonesian islamic rural banking and nahar and saker's research (2016) with their research entitled are economic factors substantially influential for islamic banking. it is concluded that the results of these two studies indicate that the exchange rate has a significant effect on financing. the effect of return on asset (roa) on musharaka financing the results showed that a high return on asset can increase musharaka financing in islamic commercial banks in indonesia. therefore, the more banks distribute funds in the form of financing, the higher the roa ratio will be. logically, if the bank finances musharaka to the public in large quantities, the profits that the bank will get will increase. so, in obtaining a high enough profit, the bank must apply financing risk management with prudent principles to avoid problematic financing that can trigger risks. in addition, roa measurement can be seen through the net income that the company generates on the company's total assets. this statement is in line with the research conducted by kusmyati (2019) entitled the effect of capital adequacy ratio (car), return on asset (roa), non performing financing (npf) on musharaka financing in islamic commercial banks in indonesia in 2015-2017. what is different from this research is also in line with the research conducted by sari (2016) with the title of determinants of islamic commercial bank financing in indonesia which explains that roa has a significant effect on musharaka financing. however, this opinion contradicts the research conducted by annisa and fernanda (2017) with their research entitled the effect of car, npf and roa on mudharabah and musharaka financing in islamic commercial banks in indonesia stating that roa has no significant effect on musharaka financing. the effect of third-party funds on musharaka financing the results show that the tpf ratio has a positive and significant effect on musharaka financing. broadly speaking, third-party funds channeled by customers to banks and circulated by banks indicate that tpf has an important role in the financing factor. in this study, the significant effect of tpf on musharaka financing shows that third-party funds are mostly used for musharaka financing. in addition, this research shows that the musharaka financing that is distributed to the community depends on third-party funds. therefore, the existence of musharaka financing channeled by islamic commercial banks can indirectly encourage the economy in indonesia, because the increasing number of musharaka financing that can be distributed to the public shows that the contribution of islamic banks to this economy is increasing. in addition to having an impact on the country's economy, musharaka financing can increase bank liquidity so that islamic banks also benefit from musharaka financing that is distributed to the public. the increase in bank liquidity is obtained through bank profits after financing using a profit sharing system. fathurrahman & devi the determinants of musharaka financing in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 45 this statement is in line and evidenced by research conducted by destiana (2016), nurrochman (2016), hasi and sonjaya (2016), medyawati and yunanto (2019) stating that tpf has a significant effect on musharaka financing. conclusion from the results of the research and data analysis conducted by the researcher, the conclusions can be drawn as follow: inflation variable has a positive and insignificant effect on musharaka financing at islamic commercial banks in indonesia. meanwhile, the exchange rate, return on assets (roa) and third-party funds (tpf) have a positive and significant effect on musharaka financing at islamic commercial banks in indonesia. the results have contribution to the determinant of the market share of islamic banks in indonesia which is a partnership-based pattern, considering that this pattern should be the virtue of islamic ribanking, because it has a different spirit from the interest-based pattern. in addition, these results provide an overview of customer interest in musharaka financing in islamic banking. empirically, customer interest is strongly influenced by internal and external banking factors, such as macroeconomic factors. the implication of this research is that macroeconomic variables are considerable. islamic bank musharaka financing is highly dependent on macroeconomic determinants. the suggestion for further research is that it is better to multiply the determinants which theoretically and practically have a strong relationship to the financing of islamic bank musharaka in indonesia, with the hope of obtaining comprehensive and holistic research. references amelia, e., & hardini, e. f. 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(2009). akuntansi perbankan syariah. salemba empat. https://doi.org/10.18196/jesp.20.1.5016 https://doi.org/10.18196/jesp.18.1.3830 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 2, oktober 2018, hlm. 167-177 doi: 10.18196/jesp.19.2.5008 analysis of poverty alleviation and financial inclusion in the mustahik empowerment program in pekanbaru budi trianto1, yasir nasution2, saparuddin siregar3 1sekolah tinggi ekonomi islam (stei) iqra annisa jl. riau ujung no. 73 pekanbaru, indonesia. phone (1761) : 38762 email: budi.trianto@stei-iqra-annisa.ac.id or budi_asamandiri@yahoo.com 2,3universitas islam negeri sumatera utara jl. sutomo/iain no.1, medan, indonesia, phone (061): 6615683 email: saparuddinss@yahoo.com received: july 2018; accepted: october 2018 abstract: this study aims to analyze poverty alleviation and financial inclusion in the mustahik empowerment program in pekanbaru. the samples involved in this study were 105 people drawn from four organizations of zakat in pekanbaru. the analytical technique conducted using qualitative descriptive analysis. the results of this study show that the economic empowerment program conducted by zakat institutions in pekanbaru has succeeded in alleviating the mustahik of the poverty line. based on the world bank's poverty line, there are 34.07% of successful out of poverty line. meanwhile, if using the government poverty line then there are 60.29% mustahik who managed to get out of the poverty line. however, this empowerment program has not been integrated with the sharia microfinance institutions. therefore, the empowerment program for mustahik should be integrated with islamic microfinance to pursue successful financial inclusion for mustahik. keyword: poverty alleviation; mustahik empowerment; islamic microfinance; financial inclusion jel classification: i32, o15, g21 introduction poverty reduction is one of the main programs of the indonesian government. in the bps reporting on september 2017, the number of poor people in indonesia reach as 26.58 million people. from the total of poor people in indonesia, 80% cannot access the financial institution (widianto, 2012). for solving the problem, the government of indonesia and other units have conducted many programs of financial inclusion for poor people such as financial literacy, micro-loan (kur), health insurance (jamkesmas), pnpm and linkage program. for the poor people and the people who live in below of poverty line, financial inclusion is very difficult to reach because they do not have money to be saved. all of their income will be spent in their basic need so that there is no possibility for interaction with the financial institution. also, the knowledge of financial institution is limited. beside the low of their income, the poor people are also not bankable so that is more difficult for them to make interaction with the financial institution. to handle this problem, the most realistic thing to do is increasing their income. there are two methods to increase their income, create a venture and become an employee. these methods can be facilitated by the government or by society. in the era of president susilo bambang yudhoyono, the government has been created a program for supporting poverty alleviation through three clusters. the first cluster is social grant like as rice for poor people (raskin). the second cluster is empowering people by empowerment program through pnpm mandiri 168 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan vol. 19, no. 2, oktober 2018: 167-177 program and the third cluster is empowering the micro-enterprises. in the first level, the government gives the fish for the poor people and for the second level is the government teaches for the poor how to catch the fish and the third level is the poor are given a fishing rod so they can fish (kuncoro, 2016). empowerment program for the poor in the second and third level is done by the government and the society should be supported, therefore the acceleration of poverty alleviation can be realized as soon as possible. for the poor who seek their life to be better through micro business activities, can be accelerated financial inclusion by making a link between their micro enterprises with financial institutions through a program public loan (kur) has been rolled out by the government. the empowerment program can also be done by ngo or the other communities such as zakat institution. in islam, the empowerment program is already done first by the rasululloh saw. the prophet muhammad saw gave a good example for empowerment program. in the empowerment program, the prophet muhammad gave the tools or equipment for the poor. the poor used the tools or equipment to work and get the money. the prophet muhammad did not give the money for the poor to fulfill their basic need because the poor still have strong physical to work. with the given equipment, the poor can work and get some money to fulfill their basic need. what is done by the prophet rasululloh saw inspired us how to empower the poor. one that gets the inspiration is the zakat institution. the mustahik empowerment model by the zakat institution is giving the capital, training and assistant or accompaniment. the main goals of empowerment program by the zakat institution is to create economic independently of mustahik and in turn, can alleviate poverty. another impact of the empowerment program by the zakat institution is to reach financial inclusion for mustahik. zakat is one of the instrument of wealth in islam so that the wealth does not accumulate in a little group of people. it is in line with the word of allah swt in quran surah al-hasyr (59): 7. zakat can define as something that can cleanse or purify as in quran surah at-taubah (9): 103. while the fuqaha (az-zuhaili, 2007) has defined that zakah is something that grows and blesses, something that must be removed from the treasures after reaching nishab and haul (maliki mahzab). then zakah also described as something which is removed from the treasure or soul in a certain way (syafi’i mahzab), or compulsory property issued by a muslim or business entity to be granted to the entitled to receive it (zakat law no.23, 2011). due to zakat is one of the instruments of income distribution, the zakat here serves to overcome the problem of income inequality and can help reduce poverty. according to yusoff (2008), zakat is able to contribute to the community in the form of scholarships to the poor, to provide training or short course, to provide an equipment to the poor, capital and also synergize with the government programs. these activities are basically aimed at easing the burden of life for the poor, as well as reducing income inequality in the community. in the study conducted by beik (2013) shows that zakat can increase monthly income even though only reached 8.94% and also able to reduce poverty to reach 16.79%. abdullah and suhaib (2015) explain that there are at least two impacts caused by zakat, namely individual impact and collective impact. individual impact includes the creation of a benevolent individual, the sincerely of faith, the cleansing of the soul, obedience to the law and special financial aid. while the collective impacts are creating harmonization and justice in society, social security, good check for hoarding, the circulation of wealth, brotherhood of human, promote respect, reduce poverty and peace and prosperity. poverty can be interpreted as a lack of food, shelter, land and other assets (world bank, analysis of poverty alleviation… (budi trianto, yasir nasution, saparuddin siregar) 169 2010; lock-dessalien, 2000; wraten, 1995). poverty can also be interpreted as a person who has no source of income and or has a source of livelihood but insufficient basic needs (zakat law, no. 13, 2011). in the perspective of islam, poverty can be divided into two aspects: material poverty and spiritual poverty. material poverty means those who are unable to meet basic needs such as food, clothing, housing, health, and education. while the spiritual aspect means not having a minimum standard in term of religion (madjid, 2011). besides, in another perspective, poverty is divided into two, namely high poverty incidence (hardcore poverty) and low poverty incidence (general poverty). hardcore poverty is a poor who can not fulfill his basic daily needs, while general poverty is a condition where a person has been able to fulfill his daily basic needs but he can not pay zakat (hasan, 1997). one’s inability to fulfill the necessities of life can be caused by several things such as individual explanation, family explanation, subcultural and structural explanation (spicker, 2002). meanwhile, suharto (2016) said that poverty can be caused by individual factors, social factors, cultural factors, and structural factors. meanwhile in the perspective of islam poverty can be caused by several causes namely disobedience to allah swt. man's own actions, the irresponsibility of the rich, discrimination, lazy work, concentrated political and economic power in certain groups, exploitation, and oppression and caused by catastrophe and war (irfan ul haq in madjid, 2011). the poverty that occurs in a person or group of people, generally marked by the inability of a person in fulfilling his basic needs. the inability is characterized by the received income per day. according to the world bank, indicators of a poor person by using a standard purchasing power parity (ppp) of $us 1.25/day or $us 2/day. meanwhile, indonesian statistics board (bps) measure it by using basic need approach where the inability of a person in fulfilling his needs is measured from the expenditure side. meanwhile, the indicators of poverty in islam is if the person is not able to meet the hajjiyat need (syatibi, 1997). to overcome these problems, it is necessary to ensure that poverty can be overcome. one effort that can be done is to empower the poor in the economic field. empowerment is defined as giving the power to the weak and reduce the power who have it or how the society, organization, and community are directed to able to control or rule over their lives (rappaport in anwas, 2013). meanwhile, the world bank (2010) defines empowerment as an expansion of the assets and abilities of the poor in participating, negotiating, influencing, controlling and holding institutional responsibilities that effect to their life. there are two approaches that can be done in empowerment, they are partial-continuous approach and structural approach. the partialcontinuous approach is done by providing direct assistance to the poor directly such as the elderly, the disabled, the lame and others. while the structural approach is carried out continuously so that the poor can get out of poverty and hope that the poor can help other poor people. the provision of assistance in the form of skill that can be used to develop the potential it has. both approaches above can be done as an effort to empower poor people through three stages. the first is an ethical-psychological reconstruction of the passive value to the active value. so the poor are given the explanation, interested the passion, then they try and consider that poverty can be removed from their lives. the second is to seek behavioral change through skill education, stimulant, information, knowledge, and exemplary to the poor who are already conscious and have a passion. the third is to attempt the change of his status through the realization of partnership commitments and funding injection (zakat, infak and alms) structurally to the poor who has active and skilled (harahap, 2016). 170 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan vol. 19, no. 2, oktober 2018: 167-177 financial inclusion is defined as a condition where people have access to interact with formal financial institutions such as banking and other microfinance institution such as bmt (ojk, 2016; the world bank, 2014; rbi, 2011). financial inclusion aims to the middleclass community traditionally and knowledge of financial institution is relatively not good that they cannot use to improve their standard of living. there are many obstacles, why the middle-class people cannot access and interact with the financial institutions that are lack of knowledge, lower income or financial incapacity and are not bankable. access to the financial institution is an important issue because it is able to contribute to economic growth and income inequality. it will be very beneficial for the poor because it creates opportunities for them to prepare for a better future in education and pursue a more promising growth opportunity (setiawan, 2015). the government of indonesia through an inclusive national financial strategy has mapped the target of financial inclusion to the three cluster target groups. cluster one is household, cluster two is community and cluster three is a micro business. the target in cluster one is done by providing assistance in the form of rice for the poor, health and cash transfer. on the second cluster is done by empowering the community by pnpm mandiri and the third cluster provides capital assistance through kur. financial inclusion can also be done by integrating zakat, waqf, and microfinance especially bmt. zakat fund which is received by bmt, through its baitul mal, can be distributed to fulfill the basic needs the poor and some of the zakat funds can be distributed to finance the investment of the poor through micro-business activities (hasan, 2010). the model developed by hasan will accelerate the inclusion of financial for the poor in slowly and gradually. financial inclusion in the concept of islamic economics is more easy to reach by mustahik through the islamic micro financial institution such as baitul mal wa tamwil (bmt) because there are two concepts, the commercial finance, and social finance. as a social finance, bmt can give the grant through qard al hasan for mustahik who want to develop their business until the business has grown up. when their business grew up, the mustahik can switch to the commercial finance so that the financial inclusion of mustahik quickly reach. in pekanbaru, there are several models in mustahik empowerment by the zakat institution. two of them are individual and group models. individual model means the mustahik gets the empowerment from zakat institution who run the business individually while the group model means the mustahik run the business group. these empowerment models are conducted as an effort of zakat institution to poverty alleviation through productive zakat scheme so that the mustahik can fulfill his daily needs without any helps from others. the aims of this study are to see whether the mustahik empowerment program by the zakat institution in pekanbaru is succeessful in making independent mustahik economically and has an impact on the mustahik coming out of the poverty line and to see whether financial inclusion has been created in the program. research method research methodology is defined as the research process which relates to principle, procedure, analysis and result interpretation (grey, 2007). in social science, there are two research methodologies, qualitative and quantitative research. qualitative research means the research which explores and comprehends individual meaning, social group or human problems. quantitative research means the research which examines the theory by verifying the variables correspondence (creswell, 2014). in this study, the researcher used a qualitative descriptive approach to describe, explain, and interpret the collected data (williams, 2007). analysis of poverty alleviation… (budi trianto, yasir nasution, saparuddin siregar) 171 in this research, the researcher used simple random sampling, which involved 105 respondents from the total of population. while the population is all the mustahik who get the empowerment program from the four zakat institution in pekanbaru. the four institutions are baznas of pekanbaru, laz of swadaya ummah, laz of dompet duafa pekanbaru and laz of rumah zakat pekanbaru. while the data used in this study are primary and secondary data. primary data obtained directly from the respondents of the study through questionnaires and interviews. meanwhile, the secondary data is obtained from the agency directly related to this research. result and discussion mustahik empowerment program is one of the programs in the zakat institution, which aims to provide power and strength to the mustahik, especially in increasing revenue through business activities. mustahik empowerment program in the field of economic or micro enterprises conducted by zakat institutions that exist in pekanbaru is generally done by two approaches, namely community approach, and community-based individual approach. in the community approach, the mustahik is given the opportunity to create a microscale enterprise in groups. in this approach divided into two patterns, the first, each mustahik make a product and then market them together in one place. the second, the mustahik work together and market their products together. meanwhile, on the community-based individual approach, the mustahik are equipped with knowledge together but they run their own business. most of the mustahik are involved in this program dominantly by women, as much 67 mustahik and men 36 mustahik. while the level of education of mustahik mostly in senior high school as much 50 mustahik, then following by graduate from elementary school and junior high school as much 17 mustahik and 34 mustahik but there are some musthik from graduate college (see table 1). empowerment conducted by the zakat institution in pekanbaru almost evenly throughout all districts in pekanbaru. there is no mustahik in three districts, namely payung sekaki district, sail district, and lima puluh district. tampan district is the highest of mustahik, that is 27 people. then, it is followed by bukit raya dan sukajadi district as much as 17 mustahik each. furthermore, 13 mustahik in rumbai pesisir district and 12 mustahik in rumbai district. for more details, it can be seen in figure 1. table 1. mustahik level of education who earned empowerment program from zakat institution in pekanbaru no education total percentage 1 elementary school(sd) 17 16,19% 2 junior high school (smp) 34 32,38% 3 senior high school (smu) 50 47,62% 4 university (pt) 4 3,81% total 105 100% source: author estimation (2018) in this empowerment program, the mustahik gets organizational support in the form of capital assistance, training and mentoring. the capital aid received by each mustahik varies and depends on the institution of zakat. on the average, the mustahik gets capital assistance amount to idr 3,125,000. the following table shows the capital received by mustahik based on each zakat institution in table 2. with the help of capital that they receive for it, of course, they must be able to get well managed until their business can run smoothly. most of the business run by the mustahik are dominated in the food business sector (56 mustahik), followed by craft industry as much as 27 mustahik, trade sector as many as 8 mustahik, sewing business as much as 7 mustahik, agriculture sector as much as 3 mustahik and the remaining 14 mustahik move to another sector. 172 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan vol. 19, no. 2, oktober 2018: 167-177 figure 1. distribution of territory based on district where mustahik who earned empowerment program source: author estimation (2018). table 2. capital assistance amount received by mustahik who earned empowerment program from zakat institution in pekanbaru no zakat institution average amount received number of mustahik 1 baznas kota pekanbaru rp. 2,000,000 45 2 laz dompet duafa rp. 6,000,000 15 3 laz rumah zakat rp. 3,000,000 29 4 laz swadaya ummah rp. 1,500,000 16 total 105 source: author estimation (2018). figure 2. the type of business carried out by mustahik who obtained the empowerment program from zakat institution in pekanbaru source: author estimation (2018). figure 3. the problems facing the mustahik in running their business source: author estimation (2018). 3 5 11 12 13 17 17 27 tenayan raya marpoyan damai pekanbaru kota rumbai rumbai pesisir sukajadi bukit raya tampan total of mustahik food industry craft industry trading sewing industry agricultur e others total of mustahik 56 17 8 7 3 14 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 capital sales competition raw material weather others capital sales competition raw material weather others total mustahik 35 31 13 7 4 15 analysis of poverty alleviation… (budi trianto, yasir nasution, saparuddin siregar) 173 the main problem facing the mustahik is limited capital and also the selling program. besides that the other problem are facing by mustahik is competition and availability of raw materials. for details see on figure 2. despite the various problems in running a business, the business of mustahik has been able to increase their income. increasing in their income gives effect on the poverty line. they can exit from the poverty line based on the world bank standards as well as based on government standards. from the total 105 samples involved in this research, not all the mustahik who get the empowerment program are below the poverty line. there are 14 mustahik live above the poverty line based on the world bank standards and there are 33 mustahik living above the poverty line based on government standards. after following the empowerment programs, there is an improvement in the quality of life of the mustahik. based on the world bank standards, there are 31 mustahik or 34.07% out of the poverty line. it means that this empowerment program has been able to reduce the poverty rate of 34.07% of the total mustahik living based on the world bank poverty. the world bank poverty line as the reference standard used is $us 1.25/day or idr 506,250/month, while the average income mustahik is idr 564,397/month. most of the mustahik who got out of the poverty line based on the world bank standards are those who work in the field of food industry, handicraft industry and sewing business. figure 4. the poverty line of the mustahik tfter getting the empowerment program based on the world bank standards. source: author estimation (2018). figure 5. the poverty line of the mustahik tfter getting the empowerment program based on the government standards source: author estimation (2018). 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 1 5 9 1 3 1 7 2 1 2 5 2 9 3 3 3 7 4 1 4 5 4 9 5 3 5 7 6 1 6 5 6 9 7 3 7 7 8 1 8 5 8 9 9 3 9 7 1 0 1 1 0 5 wbpls before after 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 1 5 9 1 3 1 7 2 1 2 5 2 9 3 3 3 7 4 1 4 5 4 9 5 3 5 7 6 1 6 5 6 9 7 3 7 7 8 1 8 5 8 9 9 3 9 7 1 0 1 1 0 5 gpls before after 174 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan vol. 19, no. 2, oktober 2018: 167-177 if the standard poverty line using the government standards, the mustahik who succeeded out of poverty line as much as 41 mustahik or equal to 60.29%. it shows that the amount of mustahik who got our from the poverty line based on government standard is more than the world bank standards. the government standards of the poverty line are rp 416,479/month. the substantial factor that has significant effect to got out from the poverty line is the source of family income. the source of family income influences in removing the mustahik from the poverty line. for mustahik who has two sources of income (husband and wife), they tend to be more successful then mustahik who has one source of income. but the success of mustahik out from poverty line has not had an impact on financial inclusiveness. financial inclusiveness should be achieved at the time of the efforts pioneered by the mustahik to be developed but they have a capital problem while the budgeting from the zakat institution is very limited. this is why the role of assistant empowerment is needed to direct them to the financial institutions, especially islamic microfinance institutions (imfi’s). the result of this study found that all of the mustahik does not recognize microfinance institutions of sharia. this means that the mustahik empowerment program carried out by the zakat institution in pekanbaru has not led to the linked program with sharia microfinance institutions especially bmt. though bmt is the main pillar in the development of micro business conducted by the community. bmt has two functions, as social finance function and commercial function, then it should be involved in the program of mustahik empowerment. both functions can be done gradually. conclusion the poor community empowerment program aims to provide power and support to the mustahik so that they are able to pursue their own basic necessities of life. in this study, proving that zakat, especially the mustahik empowerment program in the field of economics, has a contribution in alleviating poverty. however, the empowerment program conducted by zakat institution in pekanbaru has not been integrated with islamic microfinance institutions such as bmt, so the financial inclusiveness is not created yet in the empowerment program. yet the empowerment model that integrates with financial institutions has been developed in various countries, one of which was developed by mollah and uddin (2013) in europe. this empowerment has not yet led to a sustainable development program, which means that the empowerment program is only limited to eradicate poverty for the mustahik who follow the program. it still does not make a real contribution to other mustahik communities who have not had the opportunity to get an empowerment program. due to the mustahik empowerment program has not led to the connectivity with financial institutions, especially islamic microfinance institutions, the potential business developed by mustahik cannot grow to the maximum. whereas if the connectivity occurs, the mustahik business becomes greater and inclusivity will be automatically occurred. when the mustahik tries to develop, it will provide the opportunity to the poor and the needy to be involved in their business so that there is an opportunity to reduce the level of poverty in their community. recommendation therefore, the researcher recommends an operational model of the implementation of mustahik empowerment program by the zakat institution with has a linkage program with sharia microfinance which is indicated in figure 6. from the operational model can be explained that the process of empowerment is initiated by the zakat institutions directly by providing socialization to mustahik in the urban marginal communities. analysis of poverty alleviation… (budi trianto, yasir nasution, saparuddin siregar) 175 figure 6. recommendation of the operational model of mustahik empowerment program by the zakat institution linkage with the islamic microfinance institutions empowerment can be done with two approaches, namely group empowerment in a community and community-based individual empowerment. the first step to do after socialization is to developmental and spiritual coaching. mental coaching relates to the effort to cultivate the spirit of entrepreneurship and install an entrepreneurial spirit of the mustahik. this is important because mustahik should be ready to accept all risks in the business, both financial risk and other risks such as losing a lot of time. nevertheless, behind all the risks, there is a hope to grasp financial benefits that can change the quality of mustahik’s life. meanwhile, spiritual coaching relates to the problem of faith. mustahik must be guided to be a good muslim, who understand the responsibility of being a servant of allah swt. mustahik should be given the understanding that everything exists on earth, including success or fail, does not escape from the role of god. therefore, it is important for the mustahik to get guidance and direction to keep worship mahdhoh, such as prayer or other worships. this function can be run well by the mentoring team. the team can come from within the organization and also from outside the organization. from within organization, baz/laz can create a team to provide mental and spiritual motivation of mustahik. while from outside, the organization can cooperate with the university or da'wah agency or other institution in the community that can support the goals and objectives of the organization. after the process of mental and spiritual coaching, the next step is to conduct a debriefing. the debriefing of this business is crucial, so when mustahik start the business, it will be running well. the debriefing of the mustahik business can be in the form of training, technical guidance, and apprenticeship. for mustahik who already have a previous business, of course, the training program must be appropriate to the need of the mustahik. this process can be done directly by the zakat institution and can also cooperate with other parties such as the university, private companies, and government. this briefing can be done several times until the mustahik is ready to run the business, but it also depends on the resources owned by the zakat organization. 176 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan vol. 19, no. 2, oktober 2018: 167-177 if the process of debriefing has been done, the next steps are to provide business assistance. business assistance should be done once a week by visiting mustahik place of business to know the progress, the problem faced, and then solve the problems. the team of business assistance should be equipped with good communication skills and technical skills so that their existence is truly beneficial to the mustahik. to provide complementary team capability, the zakat organization can work with the various parties such as pnpm mandiri or zakat organization to recruit the mentoring team which has experience in economic empowerment. the next process is to evaluate the business between the mentoring team and the mustahik. business evaluation can include operational, human resources, marketing, and financial performance. from these aspects, the most important evaluation of microscale enterprises run by mustahik is to look at financial performance. the financial performance is influenced by other activities such as operational, marketing or selling, and human resources. the biggest challenge for micro business relates to the problem of financial management. if the mustahik does not discipline in using the money especially the business capital, they will face a big risk. the business capital can be allocated to spend the basic needs, so they do not realize that their business capital will decrease. from the evaluation of this business, the mentoring team can assess the development of each mustahik business. for mustahik who has a potential business, their business should be developed, then the mentoring team can make a strategy to develop it. reflecting from the results of this study, the hardest thing for mustahik to develop of a business is the capital problem. the mustahik does not dare to deal with financial institutions since they cannot repay the capital borrowed. here, the role of business mentor to provide direction and guidance so that the mustahik have a willingness to develop their business by establishing cooperation with financial institution especially islamic microfinance. it is important for the counterpart team to introduce the mustahik with sharia financial institutions to address their problems thus, the appropriate islamic financial institutions for mustahik is baitul mal wa tamwil (bmt). the relationship between mustahik and imfi’s like as bmt, is expected to create the financial inclusiveness of the mustahik. for the mustahik who succeed in developing their business, it is expected that they are willing to work together to help the community in their communities living below the poverty line. thus it will create sustainable empowerment. this sustainable empowerment is a hope for all of us. references abdullah, m. and suhaib, a. q. (2011). the impact of zakat on social life of muslim society. pakistan journal of islamic research, 8, 85-91. anwas, o. m. (2013). empowerment society in the global era. bandung: alfabeta. beik, i. s. (2013). economic role of zakat in reducing poverty and income inequality, a case study in the province of jakarta, indonesia. germany: lap lambert academic publishing. creswell, j. w. (2014). research design, qualitative, quantitative, and mixed methods approaches. 4th ed. california: sage. grey, p. s., williamson, j.b., karp, d. a. and dalphin, j. r. (2007). the research imagination, an introduction to qualitative and quantitative methods. new york: cambridge university press. harahap, s. (2016). the way of islam toward muslim plenary. jakarta: prenada media group. hasan, m. s. a. 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(2008). modern approach of zakat as an economic and social instrument for poverty alleviation and stability of ummah. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan. 9(1), 105-118. widianto, b. (2012). national strategy for financial inclusion: fostering economic growth and accelerating poverty reduction. national strategy for financial inclusion working group. jakarta: sekretariat wakil presiden republik indonesia. williams, c. (2007). research methods. journal of business and economics research, grand canyon university, 5(3). world bank. (2010). empowerment and poverty reduction: a sourcebook. washington, dc. world bank. (2014). financial inclusion. global financial development report, international bank for reconstruction and development. washington, dc. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016, hlm. 127-142 doi: 10.18196/jesp.17.2.3923 faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi masyarakat tidak memakai uang logam sebagai alat transaksi (studi kasus di kabupaten pulau morotai) fadli hi sahar, lilies setiartiti fakultas ekonomi universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta jl. ring road barat, tamantirto, kasihan, tamantirto, kasihan, bantul, daerah istimewa yogyakarta 55184 email korespondensi: fadlisahar005@gmail.com naskah diterima: juli 2016; disetujui: oktober 2016 abstract: this research aims at analyzing factors that affect the society to not use coins as a transaction medium in pulau morotai regency. the subjects of this research consist of people who reside in pulau morotai. the variables in this research consist of the dependent variable (coins) and independent variables (inflation, society perception, and the efficiency of coins). the samples consist of 100 respondents selected using simple random sampling. the analysis method uses multiple linear regression. based on the analysis, it shows that inflation, society’s perception, and coins efficiency affect the use of coins. partially, inflation and society perception affect the use of coins, while coins efficiency does not significantly affect the use of coins. key words: coins; inflation, society’s perception, coins efficiency jel classifications: g4, d1, c4 abstrak: penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi masyarakat tidak memakai uang logam sebagai alat transaksi di kabupaten pulau morotai. subjek dalam penelitian ini adalah masyarakat yang berada di kabupaten pulau morotai. variabel yang diuji dalam penelitian ini variabel dependen uang logam, dan variabel independen inflasi, persepsi masyarakat, dan efisiensi uang logam. dalam penelitian ini sampel berjumlah 100 responden yang dipilih dengan menggunakan metode simple random sampling. alat analisis yang digunakan adalah regresi linier berganda. berdasarkan analisis yang telah dilakukan diperoleh hasil bahwa secara serempak inflasi, persepsi masyarakat, dan efisiensi uang logam berpengaruh terhadap penggunaan uang logam. secara persial inflasi, persepsi masyarakat berpengaruh terhadap penggunaan uang logam sedangkan efisiensi uang logam tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap penggunaan uang logam. kata kunci: uang logam, inflasi, persepsi masyarakat, efisiensi uang logam klasifikasi jel: g4, d1, c4 128 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016: 127-142 pendahuluan dalam masyarakat ekonomi modern sekarang ini uang merupakan bagian intergral dari kehidupan dan darah perekonomian. dimana lalu lintas barang dan jasa serta semua kegiatan ekonomi menggunakan uang sebagai alatnya, tidak ada satupun peradaban di dunia ini yang tidak mengenal dan menggunakan uang. kalaupun ada maka perekonomian pada peradaban tersebut akan stagnan dan tidak berkembang. uang adalah persediaan aset yang dapat dengan segera di gunakan untuk melakukan transaksi. semakin banyak seseorang memiliki uang maka dianggap semakin kaya (mankiw, 2006). peran uang dalam perkonomian dapat diibaratkan darah yang mengalir dalam tubuh manusia. ketika manusia kekeurangan uang, bagaikan manusia yang kekurangan darah sehingga mengakibatkan gairah hidup manusia menurun dan melemah. dinamika perekonomian dan perputaran uang hanyalah salah satu sisi dari interaksi manusia dan karenanya ia mencerminkan karakter dan sifat manusia itu sendiri yang bertindak atas dasar harapan dan kecemasannya, rasionalitas maupun irasionalitasnya terhadap uang. bank indonesia merupakan satu-satunya lembaga yang berwenang untuk mengeluarkan dan mengedarkan uang rupiah serta mencabut, menarik dan memusnakan uang dari peredaran. hal ini secara implicit tertuang dalam peraturan bank indonesia no. 6/14/2004. terkait dengan peran bank indonesia dalam mengeluarkan dan mengedarkan uang, bi senantiasa berupaya untuk dapat memenuhi kebutuhan uang kartal di masyarakat baik dalam nominal yang cukup, jenis pecahan yang sesuai, tepat waktu dan kondisi yang layak edar. uang yang dikenal saat ini telah mengalami proses perkembangan yang panjang, keberadaan uang menyediakan alternatif yang lebih mudah serta lebih efisien dalam sebuah transaksi dari pada barter yang lebih kompleks, tidak efisien, dan kurang cocok digunakan dalam sistem ekonomi modern karena dalam transaksinya membutuhkan orang yang memiliki keinginan yang sama untuk melakukan pertukaran dan akan kesulitan dalam penentuan nilai. efisiensi yang didapatkan dengan menggunakan uang pada akhirnya akan mendorong perdagangan. uang yang selalu kita gunakan dalam kehidupan sehari-hari adalah sesuatu barang yang bisa diterima oleh umum sebagai alat pembayaran dan sebagai alat tukar-menukar (abdullah dan tantri 2012:44). uang memiliki 3 (tiga) fungsi yaitu : sebagai media pertukaran (medium of exchange). sebagai penyimpan nilai (store of value), sebagai satuan hitung (unif of account) (mankiw, 2006). uang kartal yang dikeluarkan oleh bank indonesia menurut undang-undang bank sentral no. 13 tahun 1986 pasal 26 ayat 1, memiliki dua jenis, yaitu uang logam dan uang kertas. perputaran uang kartal tidak terlepas dari pertumbuhan ekonomi, sebagaimana diketahui bahwa produk domestik regional bruto (pdrb) provinsi maluku utara atas dasar harga konstan tahun dasar 2010 pada triwulan iv 2014 tercatat sebesar rp. 4.925,84 milliar. secara triwulanan, perekonomian maluku utara tercatat tumbuh moderat sebesar 1,38% (qtq) melambat dibandingkan pertumbuhan triwulan sebelumnya sebesar 2,43% (qtq). sementara itu secara tahunan perekonomian maluku utara tumbuh sebesar 5,22% (yoy). meskipun pertumbuhan maluku utara tersebut masih dibawah angka rata-rata pertumbuhan selama lebih dari satu dekade (2004-2014) yang tercatat pada level 6,12% namun lebih tinggi dibandingkan pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional yang sebesar 5,01% (yoy). dari sisi permintaan, pertumbuhan ekonomi bersumber dari konsumsi domestik khususnya konsumsi masyarakat dan konsumsi pemerintah. sedangkan dari sisi lapangan usaha atau penawaran, pertumbuhan ekonomi maluku utara bersumber dari sektor perdagangan besar faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi masyarakat… (fadli hi sahar) 129 dan eceran, sektor administrasi pemerintah, sektor industri pengolahan, dan sektor jasa keuangan, (laporan bi, triwulan iv, hlm 1). pertumbuhan ekonomi tersebut tidak terlepas dari tingginya konsumsi dari masyarakat. jika dilihat dari perkembangan transaksi uang tunai, aliran uang kartal pada tirwulan iv 2014 di maluku utara menunjukan net outflow. sehingga pada triwulan laporan, aliran uang masuk (inflow) tercatat sebesar rp.180,63 miliar, sementara aliran uang keluar (outflow) sebesar rp 682,19 miliar sehingga menghasilkan net outflow sebesar rp 501,56 miliar, (laporan bi, triwulan iv 2014, hal. 42). hal ini diakibatkan oleh beberapa faktor yang menyebabkan terjadinya rutinitas net outflow di maluku utara adalah tingginya tingkat konsumsi di maluku utara dan juga didorong oleh tingginya level harga barang dan jasa sehingga hal ini berdampak terhadap tingginya kebutuhan masyarakat akan uang kartal. meningkatnya peredaran uang kartal pada triwulan iv 2014 di maluku utara tetapi di kabupaten pula morotai tidak semua peredaran uang kartal berfungsi sebagai alat transaksi khususnya uang logam, baik itu bagi masyarakat atau para pedagang bahkan lembaga keuangan yang ada di pulau morotai (bank umum). padahal uang kartal (uang kertas dan uang logam) yang dikeluarkan oleh bank indonesia merupakan alat transaksi yang sah. hal ini di sebabkan oleh beberapa faktor, yaitu pertama, masyarakat tidak menggunakan uang kartal (logam) karena para pedagang tidak menerima atau memakai uang logam sebagai media transaksi. kedua, tingginya harga kebutuhan pokok sehingga tidak ada kebutuhan pokok masyarakat yang diperdagangkan dalam bentuk pecahan logam. ketiga, minimnya pengetahuan masyarakat terhadap uang kartal (logam) yang pada esensinya bisa ditukarkan pada pihak yang bertanggung jawab (bank) yang merupakan lembaga intermediasi. keempat, minimnya sosialisasi lembaga keuangan (bank) terhadap masyarakat pulau morotai tentang fungsi uang kartal sebagai alat pertukaran. karena hal ini memicu meningkatnya harga kebutuhan pokok (inflasi) yang disebabkan tidak berfungsinya uang (logam). ketika terjadi inflasi maka akan mendorong kebutuhan masyarakat akan uang kartal, tetapi yang dibutuhkan hanya uang kertas bukan uang logam karena masyarakat pulau morotai tidak menganggap uang logam sebagai instrumen yang berguna sebagai alat pertukaran. hal ini tentu menjadi perhatian khusus pemerintah pusat dan pemerintah daerah, serta bank inodonesia selaku pengendali kebijakan moneter, mengingat morotai merupakan titik perlintasan antara ekonomi timur dan pasifik. selain pulau morotai dijadikan sebagai kawasan ekonomi khusus melalui pp no. 50 tahun 2014, tentunya di harapkan akan meningkatkan kesejahteraan masyarakat setempat dan mampu memberikan dampak yang signifikan pada ekonomi indonesia. namun demikian bank indonesia selaku lembaga yang mengedarkan uang kartal perlu melakukan peninjauan kepada bank umum yang ada di pulau morotai karena hal ini merupakan sebuah masalah yang akan memicu inflasi dan menghambat perekonomian pulau morotai. padahal bank merupakan lembaga intermediasi dimana menurut undang-undang perbankan no. 10 tahun 1998 bank merupakan badan usaha yang menghimpun dana dari masyarakat yang kelebihan dana kemudian di salurkan kepada masyarakat yang membutuhkan dana dalam rangka meningkatkan taraf hidup masyarakat. bank indonesia maupun bank umum selalu mengedarkan uang logam, namun masyarakat tidak menggunakan uang logam sebagai alat transaksi, dan berdampak pada harga bahan kebutuhan pokok di pulau morotai yang diperdagangkan tidak dalam bentuk pecahan logam. sehingga uang logam yang beredar di pulau morotai hanya tertahan di tangan masyarakat maupun di kalangan para pedagang. 130 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016: 127-142 penelitian yang dilakukan oleh putra dan meydianawati (2014) menyatakan bahwa inflasi tidak berpengaruh terhadap jumlah uang beredar di indonesia, namun jumlah uang beredar berpengaruh terhadap inflasi di indonesia, sehingga tidak terdapat hubungan kausalitas diantara inflasi dan jumlah uang beredar di indonesia dalam periode penelitian ini. pengujian terakhir yang dilakukan adalah uji var dengan hasil bahwa dalam melakukan proyeksi inflasi, sebaiknya memperhitungkan inflasi pada periode t-1 serta jumlah uang beredar pada periode t-1 dan t-2. untuk proyeksi jumlah uang beredar, sebaiknya memperhitungkan jumlah uang beredar pada periode t-1 dan t-2. penelitian lain yang dilakukan oleh putri (2015) menyatakan bahwa jika dikaitkan dengan teori permintaan uang tentang opportunity cost of holding money, biaya yang hilang saat memegang uang tunai daripada non tunai adalah hilangnya keuntungan berupa diskon belanja, bunga, dan manfaat dari pembayaran non tunai. sebagai pelaku ekonomi dalam mengalokasikan bentuk kekayaan (uang) akan mempertimbangkan keuntungan dan kerugian. adanya keuntungan dengan memegang uang dalam bentuk non tunai akan membuat pelaku ekonomi memegang uang dalam bentuk non tunai dan mengubah perilaku masyarakat dalam hal bertransaksi. hal tersebut akan mengurangi kebutuhan uang tunai yang pada akhirnya akan mengurangi jumlah uang tunai yang diedarkan bank indonesia. selanjutnya, cashless transaction belum bisa mengurangi jumlah kebutuhan uang tunai masyarakat di indonesia sehingga belum bisa menurunkan jumlah uang tunai yang diedarkan oleh bank indonesia. penelitian lain juga dilakukan oleh yuniarti (2010), dalam penelitian berjudul kepuasan konsumen terhadap pengembalian uang koin yang diganti permen, yang melakukan studi prioritasnya di daerah sekitar upn veteran jatim mendiskripsikan bahwa semakin banyaknya minimarket yang didirikan menjadikan persaingan sendiri bagi pihak minimarket. dalam hal ini kepuasan konsumen yang menjadi tolak ukur bagi minimarket dalam menarik konsumen. pelayanan adalah salah satu kebijakan yang diambil oleh minimarket untuk memuaskan konsumen. selain itu dalam hal pelayanan selain keramahan, kembalian yang diberikan juga menjadi alasan konsumen belanja di mini market. dengan kembalian uang koin yang diganti permen tidak sedikit konsumen yang mengeluhkan hal ini, karena kembalian uang koin mereka diganti dengan permen, menurut konsumen uang tidak sama nilainya. di sisi lain ada konsumen yang senang apabila kembaliannya uang koin diganti dengan permen. ternyata kembalian uang koin yang diganti permen juga menjadi keresahan tersendiri bagi konsumen, tetapi di sisi lain konsumen juga hanya dapat berharap dan tidak dapat bertindak selain melakukan komplain ke ylki (yayasan lembaga konsumen indonesia). adapun tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui dan memperoleh gambaran tentang faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi masyarakat tidak memakai uang logam sebagai alat transaksi khususnya di kabupaten pulau morotai. metode penelitian penelitian ini dilaksanakan di kabupaten pulau morotai, kota ternate, provinsi maluku utara. subjek dalam penelitian ini adalah masyarakat di kabupaten pulau morotai. jenis data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data primer. data primer adalah data yang pengumpulannya dilakukan melalui teknik kuisioner secara langsung dari sumbernya. sumber data dalam penelitian ini diperoleh langsung dari masyarakat kabupaten pulau morotai dengan menggunakan metode kuisoner. adapun metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini untuk pengumpulan data yaitu metode kuisioner. kuisioner adalah metode pengumpulan data dengan cara faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi masyarakat… (fadli hi sahar) 131 mengajukan beberapa pertanyaan yang tersusun dalam suatu daftar. alat ukur variabel penelitian ini menggunakan skala likert. skala likert digunakan untuk mengukur sikap, pendapat, dan persepsi seseorang atau sekelompok orang tentang fenomena sosial. setiap jawaban dari responden diberi skor seperti berikut: a. sts (sangat tidak setuju) : skor 1 b. ts (tidak setuju) : skor 2 c. n (netral) : skor 3 d. s (setuju) : skor 4 e. ss (sangat setuju) : skor 5 dalam penelitian ini populasi maupun sampel merupakan hal yang sangat penting. sampel adalah bagian dari jumlah dan karakteristik yang dimiliki oleh populasi. populasi dalam penelitian ini adalah masyarakat di kabupaten pulau morotai. metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah simple random sampling (sederhana). dikatakan simple (sederhana) karena pengambilan anggota sampel dari populasi dilakukan secara acak tanpa memperhatikan strata yang ada dalam populasi itu. jadi prinsip pemilihan sampel dalam desain ini adalah setiap elemen dalam populasi mempunyai kesempatan yang sama untuk dipilih. metode yang digunakan dalam pengambilan sampel dapat dilakukan dengan menggunakan daftar random, atau juga bisa dengan cara lain. dalam hal ini yang terpenting adalah seluruh elemen memperoleh kesempatan yang sama untuk dipilih menjadi sampel. beberapa kelebihan dari pemilihan random sederhana (mudrajat kuncoro, 2003) adalah: a. prosedur pemilihan sampel sangat mudah b. unit pemilihan sampel hanya satu macam c. kesalahan klasifikasi dapat dihindarkan d. cukup dengan gambaran garis besar dari populasi e. merupakan desain sampel yang paling sederhana dan mudah dalam penentuan ukuran sampel, sampel yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah masyarakat yang berada di kawasan kabupaten pulau morotai. sampel penelitian ini merupakan sejumlah yang lebih besar dari persyaratan minimal jumlah sampel sebanyak 30 responden. menurut guilford (1987) dalam supranto (1997) semakin besar sampel (semakin besar nilai n= banyaknya sampel) akan memberikan hasil yang akurat. oleh karena itu dalam penelitian ini penulis menggunakan sampel sebanyak 100 responden agar cenderung lebih representatif. dalam penelitian ini peneliti menggunakan uji validitas dan reliabilitas sebagai alat untuk menguji pertanyaan-pertanyaan dalam kuisioner dan menggunakan regresi berganda sebagai alat untuk menganalisis data: 1. uji validitas validitas adalah tingkat keandalan dan kesahihan alat ukur yang digunakan. instrumen dikatakan valid berarti menunjukan alat ukur yang dipergunakan untuk mendapatkan data itu valid atau dapat digunakan untuk mengukur apa yang seharusnya diukur (sugiyono, 2004: 137). dengan demikian, instrumen yang valid merupakan instrumen yang benar-benar tepat untuk mengukur apa yang hendak diukur. 2. uji reliabilitas uji reliabilitas berguna untuk menetapkan apakah instrumen yang dalam hal ini kuisioner dapat digunakan lebih dari satu kali, paling tidak untuk responden yang sama akan menghasilkan data yang konsisten. dengan kata lain, reliabilitas instrumen mencirikan tingkat konsistensi. banyak rumus yang digunakan untuk mengukur reliabilitas diantaranya adalah rumus spearman brown: keterangan: r11 : nilai reliabilitas rb : nilai koefisien korelasi 132 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016: 127-142 nilai koefisien reliabilitas yang baik adalah diatas 0,7 (cukup baik), di atas 0,8 (baik). pengukuran validitas dan reliabilitas mutlak dilakukan, karena jika instrumen yang digunakan sudah tidak valid dan reliable maka dipastikan hasil penelitiannya pun tidak akan valid dan reliable. sugiyono (2007: 137) menjelaskan bahwa penelitian yang valid artinya bila terdapat kesamaan antara data yang terkumpul dengan data yang sesungguhnya terjadi pada objek yang diteliti. artinya, jika objek berwarna merah, sedangkan data yang terkumpul berwarna putih maka hasil penelitian tidak valid. sedangkan penelitian yang reliable bila terdapat kesamaan data diantara waktu yang berbeda. kalau dalam objek kemarin berwarna merah, maka sekarang dan besok tetap berwarna merah. 3. uji asumsi klasik pengujian hipotesis dalam penelitian ini dilakukan dengan menggunakan model regresi berganda yaitu untuk menguji pengaruh. variabel independen terhadap dependen. pengujian model regresi diawali dengan uji asumsi klasik: a. uji normalitas uji normalitas digunakan utuk mengetahui apakah suatu variabel normal atau tidak. normal disini dalam arti mempunyai distribusi normal. normal atau tidaknya berdasarkan patokan dsitribusi normal dari data dengan mean dan standar deviasi yang sama. jadi uji normalitas pada dasarnya membandingkan data yang kita miliki dengan data yang berdistribusi normal yang memiliki mean dan standar deviasi yang sama dengan data yang dimiliki. uji t dan uji f mengasumsikan bahwa nilai residual mengikuti distribusi normal. jika asumsi tersebut dilanggar, maka uji statistik menjadi tidak valid atau bias terutama untuk sampel yang kecil. metode yang dipakai untuk mengetahui kenormalan dengan uji kolmogorov smrinov (ghozali, 2011; 160-167) b. uji heteroskedastisitas. uji heteroskedastisitas adalah untuk melihat apakah terdapat ketidaksamaan varians dari residu satu pengamatan ke pengamatan yang lain. model regresi yang memenuhi persyaratan adalah dimana terdapat kesamaan varians dari residu satu pengamatan ke pengamatan yang lain tetap atau disebut homoskedastisitas. untuk mendeteksi ada atau tidaknya heteroskedastisitas dalam penelitian ini digunakan uji glejser. model regresi yang baik adalah yang tidak terjadi heteroskedastisitas. c. uji multikolinearitas uji multikolinearitas adalah untuk melihat ada atau tidaknya korelasi yang tinggi antara variabel-variabel bebas dalam suatu model regresi linear berganda. jika ada korelasi yang tinggi diantara variabel-variabel bebasnya, maka hubungan antara variabel bebas terhadap variabel terikat menjadi terganggu. untuk mendeteksi multikolinieritas adalah dengan melihat nilai tolerance dan nilai variance inflastion factor (vif), dimana jika variabel dikatakan mempunyai masalah multikolinearitas apabila nilai tolerance > 0,1 atau nilai vif > 10. 4. regresi berganda analisis regresi berganda yaitu analisis yang menguji pengaruh inflasi, persepsi masyarakat dan efisiensi uang logam terhadap penggunaan uang logam, dengan menggunakan rumus ridwan dan akdom, (2007: 147) sebagai berikut: dimana: y =penggunaan uang logam bo =koefisien konstanta b1, b2, b3 =koefisien variabel independen x1 = inflasi x2 = persepsi masyarakat x3 = efisiensi uang logam e =kesalahan penggangu (disturbance’s error) faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi masyarakat… (fadli hi sahar) 133 a. pengujian hipotesis 1) uji f (uji serempak) untuk pengujian hipotesis serempak uji ini digunakan untuk mengetahui apakah seluruh variabel bebasnya secara bersama-sama mempunyai pengaruh yang bermakna terhadap variabel terikat. pengujian dilakukan dengan membandingkan nilai f hitung dengan f tabel pada derajat kesalahan 5% dalam arti (α = 0.05). apabila f hitung > dari nilai f tabel, maka berarti variabel independen secara bersama-sama memberikan pengaruh yang bermakna terhadap variabel dependen. 2) uji t (uji parsial) untuk pengujian hipotesis kedua. uji t pada dasarnya menunjukan seberapa jauh pengaruh variabel independen secara individu dalam menerangkan variabel dependen. uji t dilakukan dengan membandingkan hasil spss dengan signifikan 0,05. jika t hitung > t tabel maka ho ditolak dan ha diterima. jika t hitung < t tabel maka ho diterima dan ha ditolak. 3) uji koefisien determinasi (r²) koefisien determinasi (r²) pada intinya mengukur seberapa jauh kemampuan model dalam menerangkan variasi variabel dependen, nilai koefisien determinasi adalah antara nol dan satu. nilai r² yang kecil berarti kemampuan variabel independen dalam menjelaskan variasi variabel dependen amat terbatas. nilai yang mendekati satu mengartikan variabel-variabel independen memberikan hampir semua informasi yang dibutuhkan variasi variabel dependen. uji kualitas instrumen dan data 1. uji validitas uji validitas dilakukan menggunakan rumus korelasi product moment atau pertanyaan dinyatakan valid jika mempunyai nilai r hitung yang lebih besar dari r tabel pada taraf α = 5% atau bisa juga dilihat dari tingkat singnifikan pada analisis menggunakan spss yang harus bernilai <0,05. dari hasil analisis didapat nilai korelasi antara sektor item dengan sektor total. nilai r tabel untuk degree of freedom (df) = n-k. dalam hal ini n adalah jumlah sampel dan k adalah konstruk. pada kasus ini besarnya df dapat dihitung 35-2 dengan alpha 0.05% (α 5%), maka didapat nilai r tabel sebesar 0,3338 dengan jumlah jumlah total keseluruhan sampel sebanyak 35 responden dengan menggunakan uji 2 sisi. untuk mempermudah perhitungan dari validitas koefisien yang akan digunakan, maka nilai-nilai dari hasil angket dikelompokkan menurut masing-masing variabelnya. berdasarkan perhitungan spss diperoleh hasil uji validitas terhadap masingmasing pertanyaan yang digunakan untuk mengukur variabel uang logam, persepsi masyarakat, efisiensi uang logam. a. variabel uang logam tabel 1. hasil uji validitas variabel uang logam item pertanyaan r pearson correlation signifikan keterangan q1 0,659** 0,000 valid q2 0,678** 0,000 valid q3 0,835** 0,000 valid q4 0,830** 0,000 valid sumber : data primer diolah item q1 hingga q4 menunjukan butir pertanyaan dari nomor 1 hingga nomor 4. berdasarkan tabel diatas, dari hasil penggolahan data uji validitas variabel uang logam diperoleh hasil r hitung> rtabel dan nilai signifikasi yang bernilai dibawah 0,05. dengan demikian masing-masing pertanyaan dalam kuesioner untuk variabel uang logam dinyatakan valid. b. variabel inflasi 134 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016: 127-142 tabel 2. hasil uji validitas ariabel inflasi item pertanyaan r pearson correlations signifikan keterangan q1 0,875 0,000 valid q2 0,876 0,000 valid q3 0,876 0,000 valid q4 0,574 0,000 valid q5 0,662 0,000 valid sumber : data primer diolah item q1 hingga q5 menunjukan butiran pertanyaan dari nomor 1 hingga nomor 5. berdasarkan tabel diatas, dari hasil pengolahan data uji validitas variabel inflasi diperoleh hasil r hitung> r tabel dan nilai signifikan yang bernilai dibawah 0,05. dengan demikian masing-masing pertanyaan dalam kuesioner untuk variabel inflasi dinyatakan valid. c. variabel persepsi masyarakat tabel 3. hasil uji validitas variabel persepsi masyarakat item pertanyaan r pearson correlation singnifikan keterangan q1 0,725** 0,000 valid q2 0,932** 0,000 valid q3 0,754** 0,000 valid q4 0,814** 0,000 valid q5 0,905** 0,000 valid sumber : data primer diolah item q1 hingga q5 menunjukan butir pertanyaan dari nomor 1 hingga nomor 5. berdasarkan tabel diatas, dari hasil penggolahan data uji validitas variabel persepsi masyarakat diperoleh hasil r hitung>r tabel dan nilai signifikasi yang bernilai dibawah 0,05. dengan demikian masing-masing pertanyaan dalam kuesioner untuk variabel persepsi masyarakat dinyatakan valid. d. variabel efisiensi uang logam. tabel 4. hasil validitas efisiensi uang logam item pertanyaan r pearson correlation singnifikan keterangan q1 0,714** 0,000 valid q2 0,429** 0,000 valid q3 0,666** 0,000 valid q4 0,865** 0,000 valid q5 0,746** 0,000 valid q6 0,890** 0,000 valid sumber : data primer diolah item q1 hingga q6 menunjukan butir pertanyaan dari nomor 1 hingga nomor 6. berdasarkan tabel diatas, dari hasil penggolahan data uji validitas variabel effesiensi uang logam diperoleh hasil r hitung>r table dan nilai signifikasi yang bernilai dibawah 0,05. dengan demikian masing-masing pertanyaan dalam kuesioner untuk variabel efesiensi uang logam dinyatakan valid. 2. uji reliabilitas dilakukan uji reliabilitas adalah untuk mengetahui kestabilan alat ukur. suatu alat ukur dikatakan reliabel apabila dapat memberikan hasil yang sama bila dipakai untuk faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi masyarakat… (fadli hi sahar) 135 mengukur obyek yang sama. instrumen dikatakan reliabel jika nilai cronbach’s arlpha lebih besar dari 0,7. perhitungan nilai cronbach alpha dilakukkan menggunakan bantuan program spss. a. variabel uang logam tabel 5. hasil uji reliabilitas variabel uang logam varibel cronbach’s alpha keterangan uang logam 0,734 reliabel sumber : data primer diolah dari hasil penggujian didapatkan perhitungan koefisien cronbach alpha dari variabel uang logam yaitu 0,734 > 0,7. dengan demikian dapat disimpulkan bahwa variabel dependen uang logam adalah reliabel. b. variabel inflasi tabel 6. hasil uji reliabilitas variabel inflasi variabel cronbach’s alpha keterangan inflasi 0,841 reliabel sumber : data primer diolah dari hasil pengujian didapatkan perhitungan nilai koefisien cronbach’s alpha dari variabel inflasi yaitu 0,841>0,7. dengan demikian dapat disimpulkan bahwa variabel independen inflasi adalah reliabel. c. variabel persepsi masyarakat. tabel 7. hasil uji reliabilitas veriabel persepsi masyarakat variabel cronbach’s alpha keterangan persepsi masyarakat 0,882 reliabel sumber: data primer diolah dari hasil penggujian didapatkan perhitunagn nilai koefisien cronbach alpha dari variabel persepsi masyarakat yaitu 0,882 > 0,7.dengan demikian dapat disimpulkan bahwa variabel independent persepsi masyarakat adalah reliabel. d. variabel efisiensi uang logam. tabel 8. hasil uji reliabilitas efisiensi uang logam variabel cronbach’s alpha keterangan efisiensi uang logam 0,817 reliabel sumber : data primer diolah dari hasil penggujian didapatkan perhitunagn nilai koefisien cronbach alpha dari variabel efisiensi uang logam yaitu 0,817 > 0,7. dengan demikian dapat disimpulkan bahwa variabel independent efisiensi uang logam adalah reliabel. hasil dan pembahasan pengujian hipotesis dalam penelitian ini dilakukan degan menggunakan model regresi berganda. pengujian model regresi berganda akan diawali dengan uji asumsi klasik sebagai berikut: 1. uji asumsi klasik pengujian hipotesis dalam penelitian ini dilakukan dengan menggunakan model regresi berganda yaitu untuk menguji pengaruh variabel independen terhadap variabel dependen. pengujian model regresi akan diawali dengan uji asumsi klasik: 136 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016: 127-142 a. uji normalitas uji normalitas digunakan untuk mengetahui apakah suatu variabel normal atau tidak. normal disini dalam arti mempunyai distribusi normal dari data dengan mean dan standar deviasi yang sama. jadi uji normalitas pada dasarnya membandingkan data yang dimiliki dengan data berdistribusi normal yang memiliki mean dan standar deviasi yang sama dengan data yang dimiliki. uji t dan uji f mengasumsikan bahwa nilai residual mengikuti distribusi normal. jika asumsi tersebut dilanggar, maka uji statistik menjadi tidak valid atau bias terutama untuk sampel kecil. metode yang dipakai untuk mengetahui kenormalan dengan uji kolmogrov smrinov. hasil uji normalitas dapat dilihat pada tabel berikut: tabel 9. hasil uji normalitas hasil uji normalitas dengan menggunakan kolmogorov-smrinov test ini menghasilkan nilai kolmogorov-smrinov test sebesar 0,743 dan asymp. sig sebesar 0,639 lebih besar dari 0,05 yang artinya nilai residual berdistribusi normal. b. uji multikolinearitas uji multikolinearitas digunakan untuk mengetahui ada atau tidaknya penyimpangan asumsi klasik multikolinearitas, yaitu adaya hubungan korelasi antara variabel dependen dengan variabel independen dalam model regreasi. jika ada korelasi, maka dinamakan multikolinearitas. untuk mendeteksi terdapat tidaknya multikolinearitas didasarkan pada nilai vif (variance inflation factor) dan tolerance. hipotesis yang dilakukan dalam uji multikolinearitas adalah: h0 : vif> 10 artinya terdapat multikolinearitas ha:vif<10 artinya tidak terdapat multikolinearitas tabel 10. hasil uji multikolinearitas berdasarkan tabel 10 hasil perhitungan nilai vif menunjukkan bahwa tidak ada variabel independen yang memiliki nilai vif lebih besar dari 10. jadi tidak ada multikolinearitas antara variabel independen dalam model regresi. b. uji heterokedastisitas uji heterokedastisitas bertujuan untuk menguji terjadinya perbedaan variance residual one-sample kolmogorov-smirnov test 100 ,0000000 ,39676724 ,074 ,074 -,066 ,743 ,639 n mean std. deviation normal parametersa, b absolute positive negative most extreme differences kolmogorov-smirnov z as ymp. sig. (2-tailed) unstandardiz ed res idual test dis tribution is normal.a. calculated from data.b. coefficientsa 1,072 ,234 4,586 ,000 ,785 ,069 ,819 11,300 ,000 ,483 2,069 ,141 ,068 ,142 2,058 ,042 ,532 1,881 -,080 ,073 -,075 -1,096 ,276 ,544 1,837 (constant) inflas i pers epsimas yarakat effis iensiuanglogam model 1 b std. error unstandardized coefficients beta standardized coefficients t sig. tolerance vif collinearity statistics dependent variable: uanglogama. faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi masyarakat… (fadli hi sahar) 137 suatu periode pengamatan ke periode pengamatan lain. dengan uji ini, diharapkan terjadi homokedastisitas yaitu kondisi varians dari residual tiap pengamatan adalah tetap atau homogen. agar dapat mengetahui ada tidaknya heterokedastisitas dapat digunakan uji park, uji glejser atau uji spearman karena dengan uji-uji tersebut dapat diketahui hubungan antara variabel-variabel lain yang berbeda itu dengan variabel bebas. dalam penelitian ini digunakan uji glejser, dapat dilihat pada tabel sebagai berikut: tabel 11. hasil uji heterokedastisitas hasil perhitungan pada tabel 5.11 dari ketiga variabel independen diperoleh hasil signifikan > 0,05. karena nilai signifikan > 0,05 maka dapat disimpulkan bahwa tidak terdapat heterokedastisitas dah hasil uji dapat dilanjutkan. 2. analisis regresi linier berganda analisis data dengan menggunakan pengujian regresi linier berganda untuk menjawab analisis pengaruhi inflasi, persepsi masyarakat, efisiensi uang logam terhadap penggunaan uang logam di kabupaten pulau morotai. uji digunakan untuk menentukan apakah ada pengaruh keterikatan antara variabel independen inflasi x1, persepsi masyarakat x2, dan efisiensi uang logam x3 terhadap variabel dependen penggunaan uang logam y, yang dapat dilihat dari bersarnya t hitung dengan uji 1 sisi. dalam penelitian ini diketahui bahwa n=100 pada tingkat signifikan 5%. pada tingkat kesalahan (α= 0,05) dengan menggunakan uji 1 sisi diperoleh nilai t tabel (99;0,05) sebesar 1,660. sedangkan t hitung dari variabel independen adalah sebagai berikut: tabel 12. hasil regresi linier berganda pengujian t test menggunakan uji satu sisi dengan kriteria sebagai berikut: jika t hitung < t tabel maka h0 diterima dan ha ditolak jika t hitung > t tabel maka h0 ditolak ha diterima atau jika p > 0,05, maka h0 diterima dan ha ditolak jika p < 0,05, maka h0 ditolak dan ha diterima a. uji t (uji parsial) dari perhitungan regresi linier berganda dengan menggunakan spss maka diperoleh data sebagai berikut: coefficientsa ,859 ,149 5,785 ,000 -,034 ,044 -,104 -,760 ,449 -,062 ,043 -,186 -1,433 ,155 -,050 ,047 -,139 -1,081 ,283 (constant) inflas i pers epsimas yarakat effis iensiuanglogam model 1 b std. error unstandardized coefficients beta standardized coefficients t sig. dependent variable: abs _res ida. coefficientsa 1,072 ,234 4,586 ,000 ,785 ,069 ,819 11,300 ,000 ,483 2,069 ,141 ,068 ,142 2,058 ,042 ,532 1,881 -,080 ,073 -,075 -1,096 ,276 ,544 1,837 (constant) inflas i pers epsimas yarakat effis iensiuanglogam model 1 b std. error unstandardized coefficients beta standardized coefficients t sig. tolerance vif collinearity statistics dependent variable: uanglogama. 138 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016: 127-142 tabel 13. hasil uji t y = 0,819x1 + 0,142x2 0,075x3 + e dari persamaan tersebut dapat dijelaskan: hasil pengujian hipotesis diperoleh nilai probabilitas kesalahan sebesar 0,000 < 0,05. hasil perhitungan pada regresi berganda diperoleh nilai t hitung sebesar 11,300. dengan demikian t tabel berada pada daerah ho ditolak dan ha diterima maka angka tersebut menunjukan nilai yang signifikan yang artiya terdapat pengaruh antara inflasi terhadap penggunaan uang logam di kabupaten pulau morotai. pengaruhnya positif sebesar 0,819. hasil pengujian hipotesis diperoleh nilai probabilitas kesalahan sebesar 0,042 < 0,05. hasil perhitungan pada regresi berganda diperoleh nilai t hitungsebesar 2,058. dengan demikian t hitung berada pada daerah ho ditolak dan ha diterima maka angka tersebut menunjukan nilai yang signifikan yang artinya terdapat pengaruh antara persepsi masyarakat terhadap penggunaan uang logam. pengaruhnya positif sebesar 0,142. pengujian hipotesis diperoleh nilai probabilitas kesalahan sebesar 0,276 > 0,05. hasil perhitungan pada regresi berganda diperoleh nilai t hitung sebesar -1,096. dengan demikian t hitung berada pada daerah h0 diterima dan ha ditolak maka angka tersebut menunjukan nilai yang tidak signifikan yang artinya tidak terdapat pengaruh antara efisiensi uang logam terhadap penggunaan uang logam di kabupaten pulau morotai. pengaruhnya positif sebesar -0,075. b. uji f (uji serempak) pengujian uji f membuktikan secara simultan apakah terdapat pengaruh inflasi, persepsi masyarakat, efisiensi uang logam terhadap penggunaan uang logam di kabupaten pulau morotai. hasil ujinya sebagai berikut: tabel 14. hasil uji f dari tabel 14 diperoleh f hitung sebesar 99,352 dengan p-value 0,000 < 0,05 sehingga dapat disimpulkan bahwa inflasi, persepsi masyarakat dan efisiensi uang logam secara simultan berpengaruh signifikan terhadap penggunaan uang logam. c. uji koefisien determinasi (r²) coefficientsa 1,072 ,234 4,586 ,000 ,785 ,069 ,819 11,300 ,000 ,483 2,069 ,141 ,068 ,142 2,058 ,042 ,532 1,881 -,080 ,073 -,075 -1,096 ,276 ,544 1,837 (constant) inflas i pers epsimas yarakat effis iensiuanglogam model 1 b std. error unstandardized coefficients beta standardized coefficients t sig. tolerance vif collinearity statistics dependent variable: uanglogama. anovab 48,387 3 16,129 99,352 ,000a 15,585 96 ,162 63,972 99 regres sion residual total model 1 sum of squares df mean square f sig. predictors : (constant), effisiensiuanglogam, pers eps imas yarakat, inflasia. dependent variable: uanglogamb. faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi masyarakat… (fadli hi sahar) 139 tabel 15. hasil uji koefisien determinasi hasil analisis regresi linier berganda tersebut dapat dilihat dari nilai r square sebesar 0,756 yang menunjukan bahwa penggunaan uang logam di kabupaten pulau morotai dipengaruhi oleh variabel inflasi, persepsi masyarakat, dan efisiensi uang logam sebesar 75,6%, sisanya 24,4% penggunaan uang logam di kabupaten pulau morotai dipengaruhi variabel lain yang belum diteliti dalam penelitian ini. berdasarkan analisis data terhadap variabel inflasi, persepsi masyarakat, dan efisiensi uang logam terhadap penggunaan uang logam di kabupaten pulau morotai, akan diinterpretasikan sebagai berikut: pengaruh inflasi terhadap penggunaan uang logam di kabupaten pulau morotai. pada hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa faktor inflasi berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap penggunaan uang logam. hal ini sesuai dengan hipotesis yang menyatakan bahwa inflasi berpengaruh positif terhadap penggunaan uang logam. salah satu faktor yang mempengaruhi masyarakat tidak menggunakan uang logam sebagai alat transaksi adalah karena aspek inflasi. inflasi adalah kecenderungan dari harga-harga untuk naik secara terus menerus. kenaikan inflasi dari beberapa tahun terakhir yang cukup tinggi di maluku utara, bahkan lebih tinggi dari inflasi nasional, seperti pada tabel 16. tabel 16. inflasi kota ternate dan inflasi nasional inflasi tahun 2012 2013 2014 maluku utara 3,97 9,66 9,34 nasional 4,30 8,38 8,36 sumber: ke&kr provinsi malut dari tabel 16 dapat dijelaskan bahwa inflasi provinsi maluku utara dari tiga tahun terakhir berfluktuatif. pada tahun 2012 inflasi di maluku utara sebesar 3.97%, meningkat pada tahun 2013 sebesar 9,66%, namun terjadi penurunan pada tahun 2014, yaitu sebesar 9,34%. akan tetapi inflasi provinsi maluku utara secara ratarata lebih tinggi dari pada inflasi nasional. inflasi ini termasuk inflasi yang ringan karena masih dibawah 10%. peningkatan inflasi secara umum di maluku utara terjadi pada sektor kebutuhan pokok, dan juga tingginya ketergantungan maluku utara terhadap barang dari daerah lain dalam memenuhi kebutuhannya. ketergantungan terhadap barang dari daerah lain masih menjadi andalan dalam memenuhi permintaan masyarakat seperti dari, jawa, sulawesi dan manado. pengiriman barangbarang dari luar daerah ke maluku utara menggunakan transportasi laut yang tergantung pada cuaca sehingga sangat mempengaruhi cepat tidaknya barang tersebut untuk sampai ke konsumen/masyarakat. tingginya inflasi secara tahunan di provinsi maluku utara dimotori oleh meningkatnya model summaryb ,870a ,756 ,749 ,40292 1,688 model 1 r r square adjusted r square std. error of the estimate durbinwats on predictors : (constant), effis iensiuanglogam, persepsimasyarakat, inflas i a. dependent variable: uanglogamb. 140 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016: 127-142 tekanan pada kelompok bahan makanan mengingat kondisi wilayah maluku utara yang berupa kepulauan serta masih banyaknya daerah terpencil menyebabkan banyaknya kegiatan perpindahan tangan komoditaskomoditas sebelum akhirnya sampai pada konsumen atau masyarakat. oleh karena itu, adanya kenaikan harga level produsen akan direspon dengan kenaikan harga ditingkat distributor sampai ke tingkat pengecer sehingga harga akhirnya yang diterima oleh konsumen sudah mengalami beberapa kali kenaikan dan berujung pada kenaikan harga yang tinggi. kenaikan tingkat harga inilah yang terjadi di kabupaten pulau morotai. berdasarkan pdrb atas dasar harga konstan (2010), kondisi pertumbuhan ekonomi kabupaten pulau morotai dalam kurun waktu tiga tahun terakhir berfluktuatif. pada tahun 2012 pertumbuhan ekonomi mencapai 6,47%, pada tahun 2013 mengalami penurunan 6,02%, namun pertumbuhan ekonomi naik pada tahun 2014 sebesar 6,23% mengalami percepatan bila dibandingkan pada tahun sebelmnya, pertumbuhan ekonomi 6,23% ini didukung oleh petumbuhan di semua sektor. jika dilihat dari pdrb per kapita penduduk kabupaten pulau morotai dalam kurun waktu 2012-2014 naik dari rp13,71 juta menjadi rp16,38 juta berdasarkan harga berlaku atau naik sebesar 9,31%. akan tetapi jika dikaji lebih lanjut kenaikan itu bukan nilai riil. akan tetapi kenaikan yang terjadi lebih disebabkan oleh pengaruh kenaikan tingkat harga barang dan jasa atau inflasi. kenyataan tersebut tercermin dari nilai pdrb per kapita atas dasar harga konstan dimana dalam kurun waktu yang sama perolehannya hanya naik dari rp 12,28 juta menjadi rp 13,10 juta atau naik rata-rata sebesar 3,29%. inflasi yang tinggi di provinsi maluku utara yang berdampak pada kenaikan harga bahan kebutuhan pokok di kabupaten pulau morotai, dimana setiap bahan kebutuhan pokok seperti bahan makanan, minuman, pakaian dan kebutuhan lainnya tidak dijual dalam bentuk pecahan logam dalam perdagangan besar maupun eceran. jadi kenaikan harga tersebut berdampak terhadap penggunaan uang logam di kabupaten pulau morotai, karena bahan kebutuhan pokok yang diperdagangkan nominal harga terendah yaitu rp 1000 sehingga inflasi berpengaruh terhadap penggunaan uang logam di kabupaten pulau morotai. pengaruh persepsi masyarakat terhadap penggunaan uang logam di kabupaten pulau morotai. penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa persepsi masyarakat berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap penggunaan uang logam. seperti yang telah dijelaskan pada pembahasan di awal, bahwa fenomena inflasi yang tinggi di maluku utara berdampak pada kenaikan harga yang tinggi di kabupaten pulau morotai. kabupaten pulau morotai juga masih tergantung pada barang-barang impor dari luar daerah, dan jalur perdagangannya menggunakan transportasi laut sehingga memakan biaya serta distribusi waktu yang lama dan berdampak terhadap kenaikan harga-harga. fenomena inflasi yang tinggi ini berpengaruh terhadap persepsi masyarakat, bahwa semestinya uang logam dapat digunakan sebagai alat transaksi dalam tarnsaksi kecil, namun karena tingginya tingkat harga sehingga masyarakat tidak lagi menggunakan uang logam untuk mempermudah perdagangan terutama dalam jumlah kecil. keadaan tersebut akan berdampak pada ekonomi masyarakat yang kesulitan dan terbebani untuk memenuhi kebutuhan hidupnya. pengaruh efisiensi uang logam terhadap penggunaan uang logam di kabupaten pulau morotai. hasil penelitian menunjukan bahwa faktor efisiensi uang logam berpengaruh negatif terhadap penggunaan uang logam. hasil penelitian ini tidak sesuai dengan hipotesis yang menyatakan bahwa efisiensi uang logam berpengaruh positif terhadap penggunaan uang logam. faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi masyarakat… (fadli hi sahar) 141 uang dikatakan effisien jika uang dapat memenuhi fungsinya sebagai legal tender. hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa efisiensi uang logam tidak berpengaruh terhadap penggunaan uang logam di kabupaten pulau morotai. uang memiliki bebrapa fungsi yaitu medium of exchange, unit of account, stor of value, dan standard of deffered payment. menurut uu no. 7 tahun 2011 tentang mata uang. selanjutnya disebutkan dengan uu mata uang, yaitu mata uang adalah uang yang dikeluarkan negara kesatuan republik indonesia yang selanjutnya disebut rupiah. dari pengertian tersebut uang logam merupakan alat transaksi yang sah dan diciptakan untuk melancarkan kegiatan transaksi dan perdagangan. hasil ini menunjukkan bahwa uang tetap berfungsi sebagai alat tukar dan memenuhi syaratnya sebagai uang. jika dilihat dari peredaran uang kartal dalam kurun waktu tiga tahun terakhir mengalami net outflow, dapat dilihat pada tabel 17. tabel 17. aliran uang kartal di provinsi maluku utara sumber : ke&kr provinsi malut dalam kurun waktu tiga tahun terakhir, peredaran uang kartal di provinsi maluku utara mengalami net outflow, pada tahun 2012 terjadi net outflow sebesar 474,04 milyar, tahun 2013 terjadi net outflow sebesar 509 milyar, dan pada tahun 2014 terjadi net outflow sebesar 501,56 milyar. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa intensitas peredaran uang kartal (uang kertas dan uang logam) di provinsi maluku utara masih cukup tinggi, meskipun pada tahun 2014 terjadi penurunan hal ini disebabkan oleh perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi. tingkat intensitas peredaran uang kartal menunjukkan bahwa masyarakat masih menggunakan uang kartal dalam memenuhi kebutuhan hidup. khususnya di kabupaten pulau morotai, uang kartal masih tetap memenuhi syaratnya sebagai uang, sehingga dapat disimpulkan bahwa uang kartal baik uang kertas maupun uang logam samasama efisien. simpulan berdasarkan hasil pengujian hipotesis dan pembahasan yang telah dilakukan, diperoleh kesimpulan sebagai berikut: 1. berdasarkan hasil uji signifikan simultan (uji f) dapat disimpulkan bahwa dari ketiga variabel (inflasi, persepsi masyarakat, dan efisiensi uang logam), secara bersama-sama berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap penggunaan uang logam di kabupaten pulau morotai. 2. berdasarkan hasil uji signifikansi parsial (uji t) dapat disimpulkan bahwa variabel inflasi dan persepsi masyarakat secara individu berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap penggunaan uang logam di kabupaten pulau morotai dengan tingkat signifikansi dibawah nilai alpha. variabel efisiensi uang logam secara individu tidak berpengaruh terhadap penggunaan uang logam di kabupaten pulau morotai. tahun perdaran uang kartal keterangan inflow outflow 2012 91,99 milyar 566,03 milyar net outflow 474,04 milyar 2013 164,6 milyar 673,6 milyar net outflow 509 milyar 2014 180,63 milyar 682,19 milyar net outflow 501,56 milyar 142 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016: 127-142 daftar pustaka abdullah, thamrin & francis tantri. 2012. manajemen pemasaran. jakarta: rajawali pers. akdom. 2007. strategic management for educational management. bandung: alfabeta. ghozali. 2011. aplikasi analisis multivariate dengan program spss. semarang: badan penerbit diponogoro. mankiw, n. gregory. 2006, pengantar ekonomi makro. ghalia indonesia: jakarta mudrajat kuncoro. 2003. metode riset untuk bisnis dan ekonomi. jakarta: airlangga putra, meydianawathi. 2014. analisis vector auto regressive terhadap kausalitas inflasi dan jumlah uang beredar indonesia. fakultas ekonomi universitas udayana, denpasar. putri. 2015. perkembangan cashless transaction terhadap kebutuhan uang tunai sugiyono. 2004. metode penelitian. bandung: alfabeta sugiyono. 2007. metode penelitian kuantitatif, kualitatis dan r&d. bandung: alfabeta. supranto, johannes. 1997. riset operasi: untuk pengambilan keputusan. universitas indonesia press. jakarta. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 2, oktober 2018, hlm. 142-151 doi: 10.18196/jesp.19.2.5005 gross regional domestic product forecasts using trend analysis: case study of bangka belitung province nurmalita oktaviana1, nurisqi amalia2 diploma in applied economics, faculty of economics and business, vocational school, universitas gadjah mada jl. notonegoro no.1 bulaksumur, yogyakarta 55281 1nurmalitaoktaviana98@gmail.com 2nurisqiamalia@gmail.com correspondence e-mail: nurmalitaoktaviana98@gmail.com received: may 2018; accepted: october 2018 abstract: gross regional domestic product (grdp) is one of the important indicators to determine the economic conditions in the region. this study aims to forecast the gross regional domestic product (grdp) of the province of bangka belitung islands which is dominated by tourism sector. this forecasting to be expected to give information to formulate a type of policy action that will be conducted by decision makers based on grdp data. grdp data are from the first quarter of 2010 to the fourth quarter of 2017 on the basis of constant prices in 2010. data sources are obtained from central bureau of statistics (bps) of the province of bangka belitung islands. the forecasting method used is the research is trend analysis. the results of the grdp forecasting of bangka belitung province in the first quarter of 2018 to the fourth quarter of 2022 shows an increasing trend. it can be seen from historical data that shows an increasing trend as evidenced from the graph on linear trends. the increasing trend in grdp of the bangka belitung islands province for the next five years is supported by government policies that prioritize the tourism sector. consequently, by prioritizing the tourism sector, this will increase economic growth and can reduce grdp dependency on mining sector, especially tin that has been continuously decreased. keywords : forecasting; pdrb; time series; trend analysis jel classification: e17, c53, c22 introduction the main variable used to determine the economic performance of a region is the level of economic growth over time (gregory and stuart, 1992). the value of gross domestic product (gdp) at constant prices is used to calculate national economic growth (rahardja and manurung, 2001). gdp is defined as the value of goods and services produced in an area of the economy for a certain period of time (abel, andrew b, and ben s. bernake, 2001). an economy experiences growth if the amount of production of goods and services produced increases. a high and sustainable level of economic growth is a condition that is desired by every country and region. high growth rates will improve the welfare and prosperity of society as a whole. this is indicated by an increase in the availability of employment and income. gross regional domestic product (grdp) is one of the important indicators for knowing the economic conditions in a country in a certain period of time. grdp calculation becomes a very important part in macroeconomic, especially about the economic analysis of a region. the results of this grdp calculation are used as a basis for measuring economic activity in an economic activity. these grdp figures are used as mac gross regional domestic product forecasts… (nurmalita oktaviana, nurisqi amalia) 143 roeconomic indicators, as a basis for evaluating economic performance and formulating various policies. gross regional domestic product (grdp) data is one of the important indicators to determine the condition of an area within a certain period, based on current prices and on the basis of constant prices. the movement of grdp values over time is strongly influenced by political factors and government policies. grdp data is based on a certain time sequence which is presented on an annual basis (longterm time series). based on this indicator, it will be obtained an overview of the level of prosperity of people in a region. the direction of movement of the gross regional domestic product (grdp) is one of the government's ingredients in setting economic targets. one way to know the direction of movement can be done through forecasting. forecasting is a way of projecting values in the past (known value) into the future. the method uses both mathematical models and subjective estimates. this often causes errors caused by the limitations of human abilities (makridakis, et al., 1982). forecasting is carried out to determine the movement of a data in the coming period as done by jiang, et al. (2017) forecasting the growth of gross domestic product (gdp) in china by using dynamic predictors and mixed frequency data. dias, et al. (2015) estimate gdp growth before and after the economic and financial crisis in portugal. portugal's economy was badly hit by the crisis. forecasting is very important in assessing relative performance during periods of economic crisis. xu, et al. (2018) forecasting using the gp-u-midas model which results are very useful for policymakers in the us. in the same country, modis (2013) states that gdp growth is considered a natural growth process that can be explained by the logistical growth equation. the s-shaped logistics pattern provides a good description and forecast for nominal and real gdp per capita in the us over the past 80 years. jansen, et al. (2016) conducted a comparison between shortterm estimates of 12 statistical models and professional analysis using a set of monthly indicators. the results of these studies contain valuable information that can be used to improve predictions. maity and chatterje (2012) make predictions regarding the estimated growth rate of indian gdp by using arima. the results of the study indicate that only one period in autoregressive and moving averages are statistically significant. furthermore, the absolute value of gdp that is estimated to show an increasing trend and its growth rate each reveals the opposite trend in the future. wabomba, et al. (2016) conducted research related to kenya's gdp forecasting for the next five years using arima. the results of the estimates in the sample indicate that the relative values and predictions are in the range of 5% and the forecasting effect of this model is relatively efficient in making kenya's annual gdp model. in all countries, data forecasting is very helpful for policymakers in determining the direction of their policies (dovern, 2013). dovern analyzed the frequency of estimated revisions and the factors that influenced them. the results show that each month on average 40% -50% of the forecasting results revise its estimates. revision depends on a number of factors, such as predictions, business cycles, or strategic interactions between forecast. gdp forecasting analysis is also carried out in various studies in indonesia. satria, et al. (2015) forecast gdp and inflation in indonesia. the projection results for the next five years show that 64% of models can explain variables well. forecasting gross regional domestic product (grdp) of the province of bangka belitung islands by using the trend is expected to provide an overview of economic growth and economic performance in the province of bangka belitung islands. forecasting results can also be used as a basis for determining the amount of the budget and controlling costs. forecasting of gdp of bangka belitung province for 5 years from the first quarter of 2018 to the fourth quarter of 2022 was carried out to support the rpjmd of bangka belitung prov 144 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan vol. 19, no. 2, oktober 2018: 142-151 ince and to look at strategic issues and government policies focusing on economic growth. if forecasting is not done on grdp for the future, the government will have difficulty predicting the possibilities in the future and not being right on target in determining or making policies. this study aims to determine the value or forecasting of bangka belitung province's gross regional domestic product (grdp) data for preventing actions related to the type of policy that will be made by the decision maker (decision making). research with the trend method predicts the grdp of the province of bangka belitung for the next 5 years, namely the first quarter of 2018 to the fourth quarter of 2022. the results show an increasing trend. this is not in line with research from utama, et al. (2014). forecasting the gross regional domestic product (pdrb) of bali province with the box-jenkins method which shows fluctuating results. this is because quarterly data is quite influenced by seasonal factors, such as tourist visits, weather and also the realization and development budget of the government. the trend is a movement (tendency) up or down in the long run, which is obtained from the average change over time. the average change can increase and can reduce. if the average change increases, it is called a positive trend or trend that has an upward tendency. conversely, if the average change is reduced, it is called a negative trend or a trend that has a downward trend. trend illustrates the progress of time series data over a long period of time and has an ascending or descending tendency. this motion reflects the nature of continuity or a continuous state from time to time over a period of time. because of the nature of this continuity, the trend is considered a stable movement so that in interpreting it can use a mathematical model. the trend can be either a straight line (regression/linear trend) or not straight (regression/non-linear trend) (dajan, 1986). the advantage of the trend is that the forecast results are close to the actual value and are very good for long-term data while the weakness of this method is not suitable for short-term data use (dajan, 1986). research method data the data used in this study are time series. time series is a series of time will be known whether the events, events, symptoms, and variables observed are developing following regular patterns of development (hanke, et al., 2003). the data used is the grdp data of the bangka belitung islands province. this data is sourced from the central bureau of statistics of the province of bangka belitung islands with a time period from the first quarter of 2010 to the fourth quarter of 2017. this type of data is secondary data because the data used is not obtained directly by the author. data analysis data analysis is done using the trend method. trend analysis is a long-term upward or downward trend from the average change over time. the data used is grdp data in the quarter. the software used to process data is spss 20. software according to makridakis, et al. (1999) the selection of trend forecasting models can be done by comparing the coefficient of determination (r2). the coefficient of determination (r2) measures how far the ability of the model in explaining the variation of the dependent variable and measuring the accuracy of a regression line applied to a group of research data. in general, the value of r2 can be defined as follows: r2 = ∑ ∑ where: 𝑡 = time / period y_t = time series value in the 𝑡 period ŷ_t = forecast value in the 𝑡 period ȳ = average time series value. the greater the r2 value, the better the model / exact model obtained, which is about 0.7 to 1. the equation formula in the trend method is as follows: y = a + bx + e gross regional domestic product forecasts… (nurmalita oktaviana, nurisqi amalia) 145 where: y = grdp a = constant bx = pdrbt-1 e = error results and discussion grdp of bangka belitung province on the basis of constant prices in 2010 per quarter during the first quarter of 2010 to the fourth quarter of 2017 experienced an increase as presented in table 1. this shows that the data grdp bangka belitung on a quarterly basis during 2010 2017 experienced positive growth. the data above is grdp data that starts from 2010 in the first quarter and ends in 2017 quarter iv. in this data, it is known that the grdp of bangka belitung province in the period of 2010 in the first quarter to 2017 in the fourth quarter has increased, can be seen from the highest grdp in the fourth quarter of 2017 with a total of 12,672,009.37. output results of grdp data of bangka belitung province using spss 20 software in figure 2 and figure 2. table 1. bangka belitung province's gross regional domestic product based on constant prices in 2010, from quarter i of 2010 to quarter iv of 2017 no year, (quarterly) grdp (million rupiah) growth (%) 1 2010.1 8,592,658.23 2 2010.2 8,808,349.94 0.025101861 3 2010.3 9,018,196.28 0.02382357 4 2010.4 9,142,699.72 0.013805803 5 2011.1 9,134,044.11 -0.000946724 6 2011.2 9,478,236.39 0.037682354 7 2011.3 9,716,970.73 0.025187633 8 2011.4 9,684,739.07 -0.003317048 9 2012.1 9,689,450.06 0.000486434 10 2012.2 9,962,560.97 0.02818642 11 2012.3 10,144,330.25 0.018245236 12 2012.4 10,308,564.86 0.016189793 13 2013.1 10,309,220.80 6.36306e-05 14 2013.2 10,508,920.08 0.019370938 15 2013.3 10,628,591.25 0.01138758 16 2013.4 10,744,124.96 0.010870087 17 2014.1 10,756,992.97 0.001197679 18 2014.2 11,017,029.10 0.024173682 19 2014.3 11,136,268.84 0.010823221 20 2014.4 11,249,148.61 0.010136229 21 2015.1 11,197,460.36 -0.004594859 22 2015.2 11,455,280.50 0.023024876 23 2015.3 11,580,681.87 0.010947036 24 2015.4 11,728,881.25 0.01279712 25 2016.1 11,582,514.86 -0.012479143 26 2016.2 11,895,095.64 0.026987298 27 2016.3 12,063,444.17 0.014152768 28 2016.4 12,309,765.99 0.020418864 29 2017.1 12,326,039.26 0.00132198 30 2017.2 12,511,643.00 0.015057857 31 2017.3 12,498,059.28 -0.001085686 32 2017.4 12,672,009.37 0.013918168 source: author estimation (2018), data are obtained from bps bangka belitung province. 146 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan vol. 19, no. 2, oktober 2018: 142-151 table 2. summary output model summary r r square adjusted r square std. the error of the estimate 1 .997a .994 .994 96221.64555 a. predictors: (constant). quarterly source: author estimation (2018) table 3. coefficients regression coefficientsa model unstandardized coefficients standardized coefficients t sig. b std. error beta 1 (constant) 8648738.545 34832.819 248.293 .000 pdrbt-1 127068.824 1842.259 .997 68.974 .000 a. dependent variable: pdrb source: author estimation (2018) based on table 2 above it is known that the r-value of 0.997 which is closed to 1 means that between the independent variable, in this case, the grdp of the previous year has a close relationship with the dependent variable grdp. the value of r-square is 0.994 which means the variation of grdp can be explained by the time period of the transaction of 0.994 or 99.4% and the remaining 0.6% is explained by other variables outside the model. linear trend method will be used to forecast grdp data in bangka belitung province for the next five years quarterly using spss 20. software based on the regression coefficient table above it can be seen that the significant value <alpha means that the independent variable (pdrbt-1) affects the dependent variable (grdp). table 4 shows the forecasting data of the gross regional domestic product of the bangka belitung islands province in 2018 in the first quarter to 2022 in the fourth quarter along with growth in percent for the first quarter to the fourth quarter of each year. table 4. results of forecasting the gross regional domestic product of bangka belitung province according to constant prices in 2010, from quarter i of 2018 to quarter iv of 2022 no year, quarterly pdrb (million rupiahs) growth (%) 1 2018.1 12,842,009.74 2 2018.2 12,969,078.56 0.009894777 3 2018.3 13,096,147.39 0.009797830 4 2018.4 13,223,216.21 0.009702763 5 2019.1 13,350,285.03 0.009609524 6 2019.2 13,477,353.86 0.009518061 7 2019.3 13,604,422.68 0.009428321 8 2019.4 13,731,491.50 0.009340258 9 2020.1 13,858,560.33 0.009253826 10 2020.2 13,985,629.15 0.009168977 11 2020.3 14,112,697.98 0.009085671 12 2020.4 14,239,766.80 0.009003864 13 2021.1 14,366,835.63 0.008923519 14 2021.2 14,493,904.45 0.008844593 15 2021.3 14,620,973.27 0.008767052 16 2021.4 14,748,042.10 0.008690860 17 2022.1 14,875,110.92 0.008615979 18 2022.2 15,002,179.75 0.008542379 19 2022.3 15,129,248.57 0.008470024 20 2022.4 15,256,317.39 0.008398885 source: author estimation gross regional domestic product forecasts… (nurmalita oktaviana, nurisqi amalia) 147 figure 1. province pdrb forecasting results of bangka belitung year 2018 quarter i 2011 quarter iv source: author estimation (2018) based on the table, it is known that the results of the forecasting of the gross regional domestic product of the bangka belitung islands province from 2018 quarter i up to 2022 quarter iv using the trend method experienced an increase seen from the table of grdp. the forecasting results of the gross regional domestic product of the bangka belitung islands province are used as an illustration to see the possibilities that occur in the future. with the prediction about the possibilities that occur in the coming period, the government has a reference for making policies. figure 1 shows the results of forecasting the gross regional domestic product (grdp) of the bangka belitung islands province in 2018 the first quarter to 2022 the fourth quarter shows an increasing trend. bangka belitung province is one of the provinces in indonesia which has mining natural wealth (sujitno, 2007). statistical data from the united states bureau of mines (usbm) records that malaysia has tin mining reserve a number 1 (one) and followed by indonesia which has tin mining reserves around 800,000 tons. this has the potential to increase foreign exchange for the national economy in indonesia. the mining sector is very influential on grdp growth in bangka belitung province. the sector is able to contribute around 13% to the provincial economy with its main commodity being tin mining. the economic growth of the bangka belitung islands province continues to experience a slowdown during the period 2011 2014. the economic growth of the bangka belitung islands province is slowing down due to the decline in the mining sector. tin mining is the main product of natural resources in bangka belitung province. the decline in the contribution from the mining sector was due to lower demand from the tin metal industry. in addition to declining demand, the selling price also decreased. with the increasingly intense issue of environmental damage as a result of mining activities, mining permits are increasingly tightened. bangka belitung islands province has a damaged and very critical land condition compared to other provinces, reaching rp1,053,253.19 hectares or 62% of the land area of the bangka belitung islands province (walhi nasional walhi bangka belitung islands). the diminishing supply of tin commodities requires the alternative sector to support the economy of the bangka belitung islands province. to reduce the dependence of the bangka belitung province on the mining sector, the government is trying to improve the tourism sector to increase economic growth because tourism potential in the province of bangka belitung islands is very large. the government's efforts have been stated in the rpjmd of the bangka belitung islands province in 2017-2022 and also become one of the government's priority programs. there are 11 priority programs that will be implemented in the regional development program 2017-2022. there are 3 (three) main priorities that are of particular concern, namely the development of pepper, tourism and mining management that pay attention to the environment. 148 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan vol. 19, no. 2, oktober 2018: 142-151 in the province of bangka belitung islands tourism development is one of the activities that in recent years have been carried out more seriously than in previous years. tourism has even been designated as one of the leading sectors in the face of the post-tin bangka belitung islands. after more than three centuries tin was mined in bangka belitung and became the backbone of the regional economy then tin mining is estimated to be entering a "sunset industry" so that other sectors are needed as an alternative, namely tourism and marine fisheries. to encourage the acceleration of tourism development, the provincial government of the bangka belitung islands launched the tourism visit year program to the 2010 bangka belitung islands called the visit bangka belitung archipelago 2010, abbreviated as visit babel archi (vba) 2010. the program, which began with the launching of the minister of culture and tourism in belitung at the end of 2009, contains a number of agenda activities in bangka belitung which are expected to attract tourists to visit. likewise in 2011, an international national scale event was held, namely sail wakatobi belitong (swb) in 2011, where participants who participated in this activity were yachter fans from various countries. tourism development in a country will encourage and accelerate economic growth. in the framework of regional development, the tourism sector plays a decisive role and can be a catalyst to gradually improve the development of other sectors. the success of the development of the tourism sector means that it will increase its role in regional revenues, where tourism is the main component (pleanggra and yusuf, 2003). the tourism sector is one sector that has a contribution in the employment absorption. the arrival of tourism to an area will open opportunities for the community to open a business so that the opportunity will provide an opportunity for the local community to work so that the community will earn income from the work (projogo, 1976). tourism is one of several major industries in the world, with a contribution to the total value of the world's gross domestic product (gdp) reaching 9% and the number of workers absorbed in this industry reaching 200 million people (unwto. sustainable tourism for development guidebook madrid, spain: world). notes from the world travel organization (wto) indicate that within the next few decades, tourism as an industry will develop at a rate that exceeds other types of industries. in 2012, the number of tourist trips to various world tourist destinations reached 1,035 billion; a growth of 5.6% per year. a number of research conducted in various world tourism destinations, generally indicates that tourism as an industry will provide positive benefits to the regional economy and the potential for negative benefits on the local socio-cultural and environmental dimensions (sebele, 2010; aref, 2011). tourism can open employment opportunities, improve community welfare, create business opportunities and entrepreneurs in basic industries and support tourism. on the different side, tourism has a tendency to exploit natural resources and the cultural potential of local communities (untong et al., 2010). the province of bangka belitung islands has an amazing natural beauty of the beach, besides that, it also has a variety of tourist attractions such as water tourism. nature tourism, cultural tourism, and special interest tours. this diversity can provide an alternative choice of travel that is more varied for tourists. the visit of local tourists and foreign tourists to bangka belitung has quite favorable prospects because it greatly helps the improvement of the community's economy. efforts to develop the tourism sector in the bangka belitung islands are progressing as seen from the increasing number of tourism facilities, transportation, communication and the increasing number of tourists. however, faster acceleration is needed to spur the preparation of the tourism sector in the bangka belitung islands, because mines, especially tin and minerals will surely run out. gross regional domestic product forecasts… (nurmalita oktaviana, nurisqi amalia) 149 table 5. data of foreign tourist visits and archipelago tourists to tourism objects in bangka belitung islands province in 2011-2014. year target realization domestic tourists international tourists total tourists % international tourists % number % 2006 75,131 2,324 77,455 67,935 90.42 447 19.23 68,328 88.29 2007 77,686 2,403 80,089 62,271 80.16 148 6.16 62,419 77.94 2008 80,192 4,221 84,413 78,700 98.14 380 9.00 79,080 93.68 2009 84,523 4,449 88,972 93,816 111.00 622 13.98 94,438 106.14 2010 89,087 4,689 93,776 136.022 152.68 701 14.95 136,723 145.80 source: author estimation, data obtained from bps of the bangka belitung province and the rippda of bangka belitung island province. in other words, the tourism sector as a leading sector in the region must be prepared more quickly before the end of the role of tin mining. based on table 5 can be seen the number of tourist visits in the bangka belitung islands. in 2007 there was a decrease in the number of tourist visits, but for the following years, an increase occurred. if referring to the tourist targets listed in the regional tourism development master plan (rippda) document, the target number of domestic tourist visits can be said to have been exceeded, but the target number of foreign tourist arrivals is still not reached. the target of tourists in rippda who came to bangka belitung islands in 2010 was 93,776 people divided into domestic tourists as many as 89,087 people and foreign tourists as many as 4,689 people. of these targets, the achievements in 2010 were for domestic tourists 136,022 people or 152.6% of the target while number of foreign tourist only 701 people or only 14.95% of the target in rippda. if tourist visits in the bangka belitung islands province continue to increase, it does not rule out the possibility that the tourism sector can replace the contribution to the grdp of the bangka belitung islands province. figure 2 shows the results of the figure where the blue line is the observation data of the gross regional domestic product (grdp) of bangka belitung province in the period of 2010 i quarter to 2017 iv quarter, and the green line is the result of grdp forecasting 2018 2022. figure 2. figure of grdp forecasting results in bangka belitung province source: data processed it is known that green lines (forecasting lines) follow the rising pattern of the blue lines or observation data. based on the data above, then the researchers do the next step, namely the data processing process with the help of spss 20 software. before making a forecast, it must be known in advance the type of data pattern used. the results of the plot of data processed with spss 20 software are shown in figure 3. figure 3. linear trend charts and gross grdp forecasting in bangka belitung province source: data processed 150 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan vol. 19, no. 2, oktober 2018: 142-151 in figure 3 above, it can be seen that the grdp data of bangka belitung province has an upward trend pattern which means that it has experienced an increase in grdp in 2010 in the first quarter to 2022 quarter iv. observation data from pdrb in the first quarter of 2010 to the fourth quarter of 2017 shows an upward pattern which is depicted with a red line. for the blue line is the result of grdp forecasting in 2018 in the first quarter up to the fourth quarter of 2022. both lines have an uptrend pattern which means that the forecasting data follows the pattern of observation data, which is increasing every quarter of the year. conclusion forecast results using a trend have a type of data that has an up-trend pattern, meaning that the grdp of the bangka belitung islands province for the next five years, namely from 2018 in the first quarter and ending in the forecast period of the fourth quarter of 2022, has increased. the increase in grdp of the bangka belitung islands province for the next five years is supported by government policies that prioritize the tourism sector. consequently, by prioritizing the tourism sector, this will increase economic growth and can reduce grdp dependency on mining sector, especially tin that has been continuously decreased. references abel, a.b., and bernake, b.s. 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(2018). group penalized unrestricted mixed data sampling model with application to forecasting us gdp growth. economic modelling 75, 221-236. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 2, oktober 2017, hlm. 142-147 doi: 10.18196/jesp.18.2.4040 “klaster berdaya” program as communitybased empowerment model (study in national humanitarian foundation pkpu) khoirun nisak school of postgraduate, universitas airlangga, indonesia jalan airlangga no. 4-6, surabaya 60115, indonesia. phone (031) 5915551 correspondence e-mail: manjaddawajada09@gmail.com received: july 2017; accepted: october 2017 abstract: indonesia is facing a serious problem in poverty. in march 2016, the data released by central statistics agency (bps) showed that 28.01 million people or 10.86% of total indonesian’s population are living under the poverty threshold. the number of poor people in rural area are higher than in urban area. in response to this fact, as a noncommercial organization that focus on community empowerment, national humanitarian foundation pkpu released a program called “klaster berdaya”. the objective of this program are to build selfreliance of society in improving their quality of life and to reduce poverty as well. one of the pilot project of klaster berdaya is located in klanting village, sukodono sub district, lumajang regency, east java. the programs are conducted by providing scholarship and raising livestock. the scholarship is given for students who have outstanding academic achievement but come from low-income family. keywords: poverty, empowering society, national humanitarian foundation pkpu, klaster berdaya. jel classification: d6, d64 abstrak: indonesia tengah menghadapi masalah kemiskinan yang serius. badan pusat statistik (bps) merilis data kemiskinan di indonesia per maret 2016 adalah sejumlah 28, 01 juta jiwa atau 10,86% dari total penduduk indonesia. jumlah penduduk miskin di pedesaan lebih banyak daripada di perkotaan. melihat fenomena tersebut, sebagai organisasi nirlaba yang fokus dalam pemberdayakan masyarakat, lembaga kemanusiaan nasional pkpu meluncurkan program “klaster berdaya” yang bertujuan untuk membangun kemandirian masyarakat dalam meningkatkan derajat kualitas hidup dan mengurangi angka kemiskinan. salah satu pilot project klaster berdaya di jawa timur terletak di desa klanting kecamatan sukodono kabupaten lumajang. program yang diberikan adalah pemberian beasiswa kepada anak berprestasi yang kurang mampu dan bina ternak kambing. kata kunci: kemiskinan, pemberdayaan masyarakat, lembaga kemanusiaan nasional pkpu, klaster berdaya klasifikasi jel: d6, d64 mailto:manjaddawajada09@gmail.com “klaster berdaya” program as community-based empowerment model… (khoirun nisak) 143 introduction poverty remains a major social problem in indonesia. according to data released by central statistics agency (bps) in march 2016, the number of poor people (people whose incomes under poverty line) in indonesia is 10.86 percent of indonesia’s population or 28.01 million people. the percentage of poor people in urban area is about 7.79 percent while it is about 14.11 percent in rural area. there are some factors that cause the poverty numbers in rural area is higher than in urban area. in her research, firdausy (1997) stated five factors that cause poverty in rural area: 1. lack of access to economic resources, such as land for agriculture, capital, employment opportunities, and technologies in agriculture. 2. social and cultural factors, such as low levels of education and lack of skills. 3. bad geography area (infertile land). 4. personal factors, for example women are subject to discrimination as assumed to be less skill than men in agricultural labor, and elder people are assumed less productive than the younger one. 5. lack of access in government services and public facilities. it needs hours and very long distance for people in rural area to access public services in downtown. yustika (2014) stated that one factor that causes poverty in rural area is there is a gap problem in productive assets ownership. some other developing countries have similar pattern, which is there is unbalanced land ownership and credit distribution. in indonesia, most of farmer families own land less than 0.5 hectare, whereas the rest own a large land. in java, average land ownership is about 0.25 hectare. having this condition in hand, it’s hard expecting a farmer families will live on welfare. although agriculture sectors employed 40% of total indonesian labor force, 80% of credit is distributed to industry or service sectors while agriculture sector get only 20% of credit. besides, the greatest economics ratio (nisbah) is not for farmers, but for wholesalers, cooperation, and large retailers. farmers are always in the weak position. the asymmetry relationship between farmers and wholesalers impacted that the wholesale receive the biggest part of profit obtained. as an example, one kilograms peanuts from farmers are valued rp3,500 by wholesale, the wholesale sell this peanuts rp5,000 to cooperation, the cooperation sell them rp7,000 to a peanut processing factory. the farmers will always lose competing with the wholesale and factory in accumulating profit. even so, for harvesting peanuts, farmers have already spent a lot of money. the prices of seeds and fertilizer are increasing at harvest time, but the selling price is falling at harvest time. since the agriculture sector is not always profitable, thus there should be alternatives to improve farmer incomes in rural area. one of the alternatives is livestock farm because animal feed is easily found in this area. however, starting a livestock farm required a significantly capitals. therefore, there should be a synergy between investor who have capital and the farmers who have labor. in response to this issue, then as social foundation that focus on community empowerment in indonesia, pkpu create a program to fill the gap of lacking of capital for farmers in rural area. pkpu released a program called klaster berdaya as a strategy to community empowerment. as a program, klaster berdaya is raising a question. can this program be used to empower community? then, how is the mechanism of klaster berdaya program so that it is able to give impact in empowering community? the questions will be explained in result and discussion. research method this research use qualitative research approach. bogdan and taylor (2000) in 144 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 2, oktober 2017: 142-147 moleong (1989) defined that qualitative research approach is a research procedure resulting a descriptive data in written text or oral from people and behaviors observed. it is also approaching the background and individuals being observed holistically (moleong, 1989). qualitative research is chosen because this research will observe the background of a phenomena that consist of process, motivation, behavior, and perception. in this research, informants play role as primary data resource. the existence of informants are intended to help researcher to gather maximal information in a relatively short time. the parties involved in this research are, the head of empowerment division pkpu surabaya, as primary informant and some people who get benefit from klaster berdaya program as secondary informant. there some type of data resources used in this research. they are oral and behavior also photos as complementary information. meanwhile, collecting data methods used are in-depth interviews and documentation. interviews is planned but conducting in unstructured interviews. result and discussion pkpu (pos keadilan peduli umat) is a non governmental organization founded in 1997. pkpu was found as a response to social and economic crisis in indonesia. the vision of pkpu is to become a trustworthy organization in establishing self-reliance. since its establishment, pkpu has been participated in solving various social and economic problems in indonesia and other countries. the people who get benefit from pkpu programs are widely spread throughout indonesia, some conflicted countries and disaster affected area (pkpu, 2012). pkpu as a social organization is a tool for distributing incomes in society. in many third world countries, distribution is important. it is discussed in many occasion, but there are lots of lacks in its implementation. in many third world countries, the economic growth only benefit the rich and cycling in their group. meanwhile most of poor people have to struggle for life. inequality in indonesia is quite high, that is 0.41. the gini coefficient is increasing year by year. gini coefficient is used to measure inequality of income. gini coefficient range from zero (0) that is, there is no inequality to one (1) for absolute inequality. in islam, a fair income distribution is a must. one verse of quran that explained about the importance of wealth distribution is alhashr verse 7: “…….. so that it will not be a perpetual distribution among the rich from among you.” (q.s. al hashr: 7) in practice, pkpu collected donations from society and distribute them in form of some empowered programs for unfortunate people. the objective is to improve their selfreliance and income as well. one of the community empowerment program in pkpu is klaster berdaya. according to the key informant (ki) from pkpu, klaster berdaya is a holistic community empowerment program. in its implementation, klaster berdaya will reach the development of human resources from children, teenager, housewife and productive adults. the objective of this empowerment program is to build self-reliance of society in improving their quality of life. klaster berdaya come with some empowerment programs that implemented in various aspects, including education, environment, economic, and society. these programs are intended for individual, family and neighborhood so that they are able to improve their quality of life and their ability to enhance sustainable prosperity. in east java, klaster berdaya has been implemented in klanting village, sukodono sub district, lumajang regency. in particular, the objective of klaster berdaya in klanting village is to help improving education by “klaster berdaya” program as community-based empowerment model… (khoirun nisak) 145 providing scholarship for low-income bright students and raising livestock, next it is shortened as binter. education is the best investment for the future. education is assumed to be able to break the chains of poverty. many children from poor family remain poor because their lack of access in proper education. this lack of access in education effected in their difficulties in reaching a better quality of life. it happens because the structure of job in our society requiring one with a high qualification. that’s way it’s frequently happen that the children of poor family will inherited the poverty of their parents. an unbreakable chain of poverty. the world today requires an intelligent and skillful person in entering labor market. the one who have a high education have more opportunities to access economics resources than the one who don’t. therefore, klaster berdaya included education to the list of problem that requires immediate treatment. in klanting village, the scholarship is given to 20 elementary students who have outstanding academic achievement but come from low-income family. the scholarship given is also included intensive training for the children. islamic values and motivation for always keeping the spirit in pursuing dreams are implanted in the intensive training. being born into poor family is not a mistake, but surrender and discourage in pursuing dreams, those are the big mistake. narrow situations can be passed with courage to change. implanting any values should have been done in earliest age of children so that they will grow up as a generation who won’t give up and willing to pursue on something that they believe worth fighting for. since klaster berdaya is community-based program, thus besides providing scholarship, organizing an intensive training becomes important. in the intensive monthly training, all children who receive the scholarship meet each other. by gathering monthly, they can encourage each other and race to do good deeds. while scholarship program is intended to help tuition education for student who have outstanding academic achievement from lowincome family, binter program is intended to improve society welfare based on community. binter was started in 2012. pkpu asked five people to join the program. pkpu bought young goats and the stock farmer would feed and fatten them. each of the stock farmer had duty to take care and fatten five goats in their own cage. the period of taking care was started three months before eid al-adha, so that the goats would be ready to be sold to fulfill consumers’ need. at eid al-adha, the price of goat is rising. from the difference between buying price and the sum of maintenance cost and selling price, the stock farmer would get a relatively high profit. binter program is continuously to run because of the high benefits received by the beneficiary. they, who beforeonly depend on not promising farming, are able to improve their income by joining binter program. the beneficiaries are always pushed to become more self-reliance and willing to work hard in increasing their income. pkpu provide the hook and bait, they are fishing. so that, in 2013 and 2014, binter program with the same concept is continuously to run, but there was increasing number of beneficiaries. pkpu managed to ask 20 people from low-income family. binter program indeed succeeded in improving the self-reliance of the beneficiaries and also increasing their income. however, binter program is evaluated in 2015. by using system in which the stock farmer take care the stock in their own cage, the beneficiaries just focus on taking care of their own goats, there is no family bonding and reminding to each other among them. so that, after releasing klaster berdaya program, the method in binter program was gradually changed. 146 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 2, oktober 2017: 142-147 since klaster berdaya is community-based empowerment program, then pkpu build integrated cage for all goats. the beneficiaries would take care the goats together. the first integrated cage could accommodate forty goats in which taken care by four stock farmers. since the limited land available of the integrated cage, some animals were still in the cage owned by the stock farmers. a hundred goats were taken care and fattened in the cage of twenty people of klanting village. in total, there were 140 goats of pkpu in which taken care and fattened by the beneficiaries. after eid al-adha in 2015, binter program was evaluated again and some important points were found. the goats fattened in integrated cage was fatter and the selling price was higher than the goats fattened in cage owned by beneficiaries. according to the pkpu’s key informant (ki), the higher price of goats is caused by the following reasons: 1. control of animals was easier in integrated cage. if goats were in many cages in many houses, it needs time to control and evaluate them periodically. 2. beneficiary could take care and supervise each other goats in cage, even for the goats that is not their duty. it was easily found if there was goat that sick, less feeding or when the foot of the goats was squeezed. so, it could be an evaluation for the beneficiaries. 3. the goats in integrated cage could be fatter and grow faster because each of the beneficiaries could remind each other and compete in fattening their goats. 4. with a fatter and bigger goat, the selling price was higher so that the profit sharing for the stock farmer is higher (woman, 3 september 2016, klanting village) at the end of period of raising livestock that is after eid al-adha, the beneficiary will receive their hard work for the last three months. the money of profit sharing could be used to fulfill their daily needs, increase business capital, and fulfill education tuition of their children. according to some of beneficiaries, each of them used the money of profit sharing for different purposes. mr. no were able to renovate his house and made a permanent bathroom, other key informant (ki) succeeded in opening food stall, while another key informant (ki) has been able to increase capital in his grocery store in his house, and his neighbor also could increase capital in his coffee shop. after experiencing the process in four years, the klaster berdaya in lumajang is more stable. in 2016, there was no goats in the cage owned by the beneficiary. all livestock were placed in integrated cage with more animal capacity. there are 400 animals were being taken care by 50 people of klanting village. the age of the beneficiaries who take care the goats is vary, ranging from 25 years to 70 years. all of them work hard to improve their self-reliance in the spirit of helping each other. the beneficiaries of klaster berdaya in lumajang named themselves as “kelompok ternak klanting mandiri sejahtera”. by work hard and the spirit of family hood, fortunately, the results exceed expectations. some respondents gave their testimony after the money of profit sharing is shared. key informant (ki) got five million rupiahs in four months of taking care the goats. “i couldn’t believe receiving this much profit sharing. i usually only get three hundred thousand rupiahs in one year for one goat of mine. i also don’t have many goats,” said the farmer with tears in his eyes (man, 3 september 2016, klanting village). for those who have been in financial difficulties, the nominal of five million rupiah is a large amount of money. there is some same situation related to how villagers have obtained the benefit from the program. likewise, key informant (ki) who have already had one child shed tears of joy after receiving eight million profit sharing. the money would be used to buy a motorcycle in “klaster berdaya” program as community-based empowerment model… (khoirun nisak) 147 order to facilitate the mobilization of his family. meanwhile, mr. yet received profit sharing up to thirteen million rupiahs. the money would be used to get married, because all this time the girl whom he proposed to, always reject him because there is no money for getting married. seeing the high benefit received by the beneficiary, pkpu determined to continue the binter program in klaster berdaya in 2017, with more beneficiaries and livestock. according to the key informant (ki) of pkpu, in the future, pkpu will look for new area for klaster berdaya after doing social mapping. community-based empowerment program should continue to be implemented and developed so that more people with low-income become empowered. conclusion pkpu as a non-governmental organization released a community-based empowerment program called “klaster berdaya”. klaster berdaya engaged various elements of society for building their selfreliance. klanting village located in sukodono subdistrict, lumajang regency, east java is one of the location where klaster berdaya program by pkpu was built. there are two focuses in klaster berdaya lumajang, namely education and economics. in education, pkpu give scholarship as well as intensive training for children with outstanding academic achievement but come from lowincome family. meanwhile, a program in economics sector is raising livestock. the program then called binter. in binter program, pkpu involving people from low-income family to take care and fatten goats. the goats are usually sold at the moment of eid al-adha. binter program succeed in increasing income by profit sharing system. klaster berdaya lumajang has provided a solution to improve their income by livestock farming. in the future, it’s hoped that there will be more donors channel their donations through pkpu. so that, the donations can be realized into empowered programs to improve selfreliance of people. references firdausy, c. m. (1997). effects of the subsidy removal of fertilizer on rural poverty in north sulawesi, indonesia. international journal of social economics , 207-222. moleong, l. j. (1989). motodologi penelitian kualitatif (terjemah). bandung: pt remaja rosdakarya . pkpu. (2012). tentang kami. http://www.pkpu.org/about-us/. diakses tanggal 8 november 2016 statistik, badan. pusat. (2016). profil kemiskinan di indonesia maret 2016. jakarta: badan pusat statistik. yustika, a. erani. (2014). ekonomi politik (kajian teoritis dan analisis empirik). yogyakarta: pustaka pelajar. http://www.pkpu.org/about-us/ microsoft word 04-romi jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 1, april 2014, hlm.37-47 studi empiris depresiasi nilai tukar riil pada rezim nilai tukar mengambang bebas di indonesia romi bhakti hartarto macquarie university sydney nsw 2109, australia, phone: +61 298507111 e-mail korespondensi: romi.hartarto@gmail.com naskah diterima: september 2013; disetujui: februari 2014 abstract: this study aims to analyze the relationship of real exchange rate depreciation with trade balance and national output as economic indicators in floating exchange rate regime. this study also observes whether j-curve phenomenon exists in indonesia or not. this study employs quarterly data from year 2000:1 to 2010:4 as representation of floating exchange rate regime. vector error correction model is applied as an analytical tool by emphasizing on impulse response function to find out the response of one variable as caused by any shock from other variables in the model and variance decomposition to trace the relative contribution of one variable toward the variability of other variables in the model. this study demonstrates that real exchange rate depreciation contributes positively toward trade balance in longer time horizon. nevertheless, national output does not respond positively toward real exchange rate depreciation. another empirical finding suggests that there is no strong evidence of j-curve phenomenon during free floating exchange rate regime in indonesia. keywords: j-curve; exchange rate; trade balance; output; impulse response jel classification: e42, e63 abstrak: tujuan studi ini ialah untuk menganalisis respon yang diterima oleh neraca perdagangan dan output nasional akibat depresiasi nilai tukar riil selama rezim nilai tukar mengambang bebas. studi ini juga mencaritahu ada tidaknya fenomena kurva-j di indonesia. ada pun basis data yang digunakan pada studi ini ialah kuartalan dengan data observasi pada tahun 2000:1 hingga 2010:4 sebagai representasi periode rezim nilai tukar mengambang bebas. studi ini menggunakan alat analisis vector error correction model yang lebih ditekankan pada fungsi impulse response untuk mengetahui respon yang diterima oleh suatu variabel akibat gejolak variabel lain dalam model dan dekomposisi varian untuk mengetahui kontribusi suatu variabel terhadap variabilitas variabel lain dalam model. hasil dari studi ini menunjukkan bahwa depresiasi nilai tukar riil berhubungan positif dengan neraca perdagangan dalam horizon waktu yang lebih panjang. sementara itu, depresiasi nilai tukar riil justru berhubungan negatif dengan output nasional. temuan lain studi ini adalah tidak adanya bukti kuat yang menunjukkan fenomena kurva-j di indonesia selama rezim nilai tukar mengambang bebas. kata kunci: kurva-j; nilai tukar; neraca perdagangan; output; impulse response klasifikasi jel: e42, e63 pendahuluan sejarah indonesia telah tercatat sebanyak tiga kali mengganti rezim nilai tukarnya semenjak tahun 1965 hingga sekarang, yakni rezim nilai tukar tetap, mengambang terkendali, dan mengambang bebas. rezim nilai tukar tetap merupakan suatu sistem di mana pemerintah mengaitkan mata uang rupiah terhadap us dolar pada patokan tertentu tanpa memperhatikan permintaan atau penawaran terhadap jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 1, april 2014: 37-47 38 valuta asing. dalam hal ini, pemerintah melakukan intervensi aktif dengan melakukan jual beli valuta asing yang bertujuan untuk menstabilkan kurs sesuai dengan nilai yang telah ditetapkan jika sewaktu-waktu terjadi goncangan penawaran dan permintaan valuta asing. rezim selanjutnya ialah rezim nilai tukar mengambang terkendali yang ditetapkan pada tahun 1978 dan diterapkan guna stabilisasi moneter dan neraca pembayaran. pada sistem ini nilai tukar rupiah diambangkan terhadap sekeranjang mata uang mitra dagang utama indonesia dan dalam sistem ini pemerintah menetapkan kurs indikasi beserta rentang pergerakannya. pemerintah akan melakukan intervensi ketika kurs bergolak di luar rentang yang telah ditentukan. tanggal 14 agustus 1997 hingga sekarang, indonesia menganut rezim nilai tukar mengambang bebas, yakni nilai tukar sepenuhnya diserahkan pada pergerakan di pasar valuta asing tanpa adanya intervensi pemerintah. perubahan rezim nilai tukar ini diawali oleh krisis nilai tukar di thailand pada tahun 1997 yang menyebar ke negara asean lainnya termasuk indonesia yang juga mengalami tekanan depresiatif pada mata uangnya. bahkan, tekanan tersebut diperberat oleh pelarian arus modal besar-besaran akibat hilangnya kepercayaan investor disertai tekanan spekulatif yang membuat rupiah terdepresiasi hingga 75 persen sehingga bank indonesia memutuskan untuk menghapus rentang intervensi dan mata uang rupiah dibiarkan mengambang bebas guna mengamankan cadangan devisa. akibat fluktuasi nilai tukar terkait dengan struktur kelembagaan dan pasar keuangan di negara berkembang yang masih sederhana menyebabkan timbulnya persoalan bagi indonesia. fluktuasi nilai tukar akan menimbulkan ketidakstabilan dalam lalu lintas pembayaran internasional terkait isu spekulasi yang pada gilirannya akan mengurangi volume perdagangan. bagi indonesia yang merupakan negara kecil dengan perekonomian terbuka, perubahan nilai tukar akan mengakibatkan perubahan harga dalam negeri yang nantinya akan mempengaruhi output nasional dan kepercayaan masyarakat akan mata uang domestik. pengaruh nilai tukar terhadap perekonomian ditransmisikan oleh kebijakan moneter melalui dua jalur, yakni jalur langsung atau dari sisi penawaran melalui barang impor dan jalur tidak langsung atau dari sisi permintaan melalui daya saing ekspor. melalui jalur langsung, depresiasi nilai tukar akan menaikkan biaya bahan baku impor yang menurunkan produksi output dan pada gilirannya memicu kenaikan harga secara umum. sementara, melalui jalur tidak langsung, depresiasi nilai tukar akan menyebabkan harga barang luar negeri relatif lebih mahal dibanding barang domestik sehingga permintaan akan barang dalam negeri meningkat yang mencerminkan adanya kenaikan volume ekspor sementara permintaan akan produk luar negeri menjadi turun yang mengindikasikan penurunan impor. kenaikan ekspor dan penurunan impor tersebut belum tentu secara otomatis akan memperbaiki posisi neraca perdagangan. efek neto dari depresiasi nilai tukar terhadap output tergantung dari kekuatan relatif kedua sisi penawaran dan permintaan tersebut. posisi neraca perdagangan akan meningkat setelah depresiasi nilai tukar riil. nilai tukar riil adalah merupakan harga riil mata uang terhadap mata uang lainnya (prawoto, 2003). depresiasi nilai tukar rill hanya jika kondisi marshalllerner terpenuhi, yakni apabila volume ekspor dan impor perekonomian suatu negara cukup elastis terhadap perubahan nilai tukar riil tersebut, dalam hal ini jumlah elastisitas ekspor dan elastisitas impor terhadap nilai tukar riil lebih besar dari satu. pengaruh perubahan nilai tukar riil terhadap neraca perdagangan terbagi melalui dua cara, yakni pengaruh volume dan pengaruh nilai. menurut kondisi marshall-lerner, pengaruh volume akan mendominasi pengaruh nilai karena meskipun nilai impor naik dan nilai ekspor turun namun kenaikan volume ekspor dan penurunan volume impor akan dominan sehingga neraca perdagangan akan membaik secara keseluruhan. namun, terdapat kecenderungan bahwa elastisitas akan lebih rendah dalam jangka pendek sehingga kondisi marshall-lerner hanya dapat terpenuhi dalam jangka panjang. fenomena inilah yang disebut dengan kurva-j di mana depresiasi nilai tukar riil akan memperburuk posisi neraca perdagangan yang pada giliran selanjutnya akan meningkat secara permanen.penyebab fenomena kurva-j ialah volume ekspor dan volume depresiasi nilai tukar riil ... (romi bhakti hartarto) 39 impor tidak banyak berubah dalam jangka pendek dan pengaruh harga lebih dominan sehingga dalam jangka pendek neraca perdagangan memburuk. salah satunya dapat diakibatkan oleh kontrak perdagangan internasional yang tidak dapat menyesuaikan secara langsung perubahan nilai tukar. arintoko dan wijaya (2005) mencoba menganalisis pengaruh perubahan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap neraca transaksi berjalan antara indonesia dan amerika serikat dengan data runtut waktu kuartalan pada periode 1990:1 hingga 2004:2 menggunakan model var dan ecm. studi empiris ini menemukan sedikit bukti bahwa depresiasi rupiah menyebabkan defisit neraca transaksi berjalan secara bilateral antara indonesia dengan as dalam jangka pendek dan tidak ditemukan bukti bahwa nilai tukar rupiah berpengaruh terhadap neraca transaksi berjalan indonesia dalam jangka panjang. studi ini juga menemukan bukti lemah adanya efek kurva-j terhadap neraca transaksi berjalan di indonesia. husman (2005) melakukan studi empiris mengenai pengaruh nilai tukar riil terhadap neraca perdagangan bilateral indonesia dengan delapan negara mitra dagang utamanya menggunakan data runtut waktu kuartalan pada periode 1993:1 hingga 2004:4 yang dianalisis dengan model vecm. hasilnya adalah kondisi marshall-lerner terpenuhi pada periode 1993:1 hingga 2004:4 secara keseluruhan. dalam hal ini, depresiasi nilai tukar riil akan memperbaiki neraca perdagangan indonesia. secara agregat, fenomena kurva-j tidak ditemukan dalam penyesuaian dinamis sehingga depresiasi riil akan langsung memperbaiki neraca perdagangan indonesia terhadap kedelapan mitra dagang tersebut. studi empiris ini juga menemukan bahwa meskipun kondisi marshall-lerner terpenuhi, pengaruh depresiasi nilai tukar riil terhadap neraca perdagangan bilateral indonesia relatif kecil. astiyah dan santoso (2007) menguji hubungan antara nilai tukar dan arus perdagangan melalui data runtut waktu bulanan pada januari 2002 hingga maret 2005 dengan alat analisis regresi panel. hasil estimasi menunjukkan bahwa studi ini tidak mendukung adanya kondisi marshall-lerner untuk jangka pendek tetapi untuk jangka panjang kondisi tersebut terpenuhi. studi ini juga menyimpulkan bahwa depresiasi nilai tukar riil tidak akan memperbaiki kinerja neraca perdagangan baik dalam jangka pendek maupun dalam jangka panjang. studi empiris serupa juga pernah dilakukan di berbagai negara. khatoon dan rahman (2009) mencoba mengestimasi pengaruh depresiasi taka terhadap neraca perdagangan bangladesh, baik dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang, dengan data runtut waktu tahunan pada periode 1972 hingga 2006. hasilnya ialah baik dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang, devaluasi meningkatkan posisi neraca perdagangan. uji kausalitas granger juga mendukung adanya hubungan kausalitas dua arah antara devaluasi dan neraca perdagangan. ahmad dan yang (2004) melakukan investigasi mengenai eksistensi kurva-j dalam data runtut waktu perdagangan bilateral cina dengan negara-negara g-7. studi ini menggunakan pendekatan kointegrasi dan uji kausalitas untuk mengetahui hubungan jangka panjang dan pergerakan dinamis jangka pendek antara nilai tukar, pendapatan nasional, dan neraca perdagangan. ditemukan pula bukti bahwa depresiasi nilai tukar riil akan meningkatkan neraca perdagangan dengan beberapa negara, namun tidak ada indikasi berupa respons negatif dalam jangka pendek sebagai ciri dari kurva-j. lain halnya dengan onafowora (2003) yang menguji pengaruh jangka pendek dan jangka panjang perubahan nilai tukar riil terhadap neraca perdagangan tiga negara asean, yakni malaysia, indonesia, dan thailand dengan partner dagangnya, yakni us dan jepang melalui vecm dan generalized impulse response dengan data runtut waktu dari tahun 1980:1 to 2001:4. studi ini berhasil menemukan bahwa terdapat efek kurva-j dalam jangka pendek antara perdagangan indonesia, malaysia, dan thailand dengan us di mana pengaruhnya memperburuk neraca perdagangan selama empat kuartal yang diikuti oleh kenaikan posisi neraca perdagangan dalam jangka panjang. sementara, untuk kasus thailand dengan jepang justru mengikuti pola efek kurva-s di mana depresiasi nilai tukar riil awalnya akan memperbaiki posisi neraca perdagangan, lalu memperburuk, dan selanjutnya kembali menaik. fenomena kurva-j juga ditemukan dalam jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 1, april 2014: 37-47 40 studi empiris petrović dan gligorić (2009) di serbia dengan data runtut waktu bulanan mulai januari 2002 hingga september 2007 dan alat analisis yang digunakan ialah kointegrasi dan autoregressive distributed lag (ardl). temuan utama dari studi ini ialah depresiasi nilai tukar riil berpengaruh signifikan dalam jangka panjang terhadap neraca perdagangan serbia, dan awalnya memburuk sebelum meningkat kembali dalam jangka pendek. depresiasi nilai tukar riil memperburuk neraca perdagangan pada lima bulan awal dan selanjutnya mencapai nilai keseimbangan baru dalam waktu lebih dari setahun. temuan lain studi ini ialah gdp mendorong peningkatan neraca perdagangan melalui peningkatan ekspor melebihi impor. pengaruh lain adanya depresiasi rupiah terhadap output sendiri ialah ketika terjadi pergantian rezim nilai tukar menjadi mengambang bebas ialah adanya kontraksi output. sebagaimana dalam studi darwanto (2007), depresiasi rupiah mengakibatkan barang-barang modal yang dibutuhkan industri dalam negeri mengalami lonjakan harga. hal ini memicu perusahaan dalam negeri mengurangi produksi yang akhirnya berujung pada kontraksi output. studi oleh suselo, sihaloho, dan tarsidin (2008) juga memberikan hasil serupa. dengan melakukan regresi data kuartalan dari januari 1990 hingga desember 2005 melalui metode gmm, depresiasi nilai tukar, baik riil maupun nominal, akan menurunkan tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi. hal ini disebabkan oleh menurunnya tingkat investasi karena semakin mahalnya barang modal dan faktor produksi. peningkatan ekspor netto akibat depresiasi mata uang rupiah diperkirakan lebih kecil daripada penurunan investasi sehingga efek nettonya bagi pertumbuhan ekonomi ialah negatif. husman (2007) mencoba menguji pengaruh fluktuasi nilai tukar terhadap output melalui data runtut waktu kuartalan yang dibagi menjadi dua periode pengamatan, yakni periode mengambang terkendali pada periode 1990:1 hingga 1997:2 dan periode mengambang bebas pada 1997:3 hingga 2006:2. hasilnya adalah perubahan rezim nilai tukar mempengaruhi pertumbuhan output. pada periode mengambang terkendali, perubahan nilai tukar tidak memberikan dampak signifikan terhadap output. sementara dari sisi dampak nilai tukar terhadap pertumbuhan output, perubahan output lebih didominasi dari sisi permintaan melalui peningkatan daya saing dibandingkan dari sisi penawaran melalui peningkatan biaya bahan baku impor terlihat dari positifnya dampak netto depresiasi nilai tukar terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. oleh karena itu, fenomena ini menarik untuk ditelusuri relevansinya dengan teori ekonomi mengenai bagaimana perekonomian yang dicerminkan oleh output nasional dan neraca perdagangan merespon perubahan nilai tukar riil, dan apakah terjadi fenomena kurva-j di indonesia selama rezim nilai tukar mengambang bebas yang membiarkan nilai tukar terus berfluktuasi. metode penelitian studi ini dilandasi dengan adanya hubungan timbal balik antarvariabel baik secara langsung maupun tidak langsung. pada gambar 1, garis lurus menggambarkan hubungan antar variabel secara langsung, yakni perubahan nilai tukar riil akan berpengaruh terhadap neraca perdagangan dan sebaliknya. dasar pemikiran dalam skema ini mengacu pada hipotesis kurva-j, yakni depresiasi nilai tukar riil akan memperburuk posisi neraca perdagangan dalam jangka pendek namun pengaruhnya akan membaik dalam jangka panjang karena peningkatan daya saing yang selanjutnya mendorong ekspor. gambar 1. skema hubungan antarvariabel membaiknya posisi neraca perdagangan mendorong penguatan nilai mata uang domestik sehingga proses penyesuaian antara neraca perdagangan dan nilai tukar riil berlangsung secara terus menerus. perubahan neraca perdagangan juga turut berpengaruh terhadap output nilai tukar riil neraca perdagangan output nasional depresiasi nilai tukar riil ... (romi bhakti hartarto) 41 nasional dan hal ini berlaku sebaliknya. membaiknya posisi neraca perdagangan melalui peningkatan ekspor akan meningkatkan output nasional. di lain pihak, meningkatnya output nasional akan meningkatkan impor dan jika peningkatan ekspor tidak melebihi impornya maka posisi neraca perdagangan akan turun. akibatnya, dalam hal ini, perubahan nilai tukar riil juga turut mempengaruhi output nasional secara tidak langsung dan juga sebaliknya yang tergambar melalui garis putus-putus dalam skema. sehingga, untuk mengatasi kesulitan mengenai pembedaan antara variabel endogen dan eksogen dalam studi ini dipergunakanlah model var (vector autoregression) yang tidak membedakan antara variabel endogen dan eksogen dalam suatu sistem persamaan. seluruh variabel dalam model diperlakukan sebagai variabel endogen yang memiliki hubungan dinamis di mana setiap variabel dijelaskan oleh pergerakan variabel tersebut di masa lalu dan seluruh variabel lain di dalam sistem persamaan. model dasar yang dipergunakan dalam studi ini mengacu pada model yang sebelumnya dikembangkan oleh arintoko dan wijaya (2005) di mana perbedaannya terletak pada pemilihan variabel yang dipergunakan dalam model, yakni sebagai berikut: 1 1 1 1 1 k k t j t j j t j j j ltb ltb lrer          1 1 1 k j t j t j lgdp e    1) 2 2 2 1 1 k k t j t j j t j j j lrer ltb lrer           2 2 1 k j t j t j lgdp e    2) 3 3 3 1 1 k k j t j j t j j j lgdpt ltb lrer           3 3 1 k j t j t j lgdp e    3) dalam hal ini, variabel ltb merupakan neraca perdagangan, variabel lrer merupakan nilai tukar riil, dan variabel lgdp merupakan output nasional di mana masing-masing di antaranya dinyatakan dalam bentuk logaritma. ada pun, semua variabel dinyatakan dalam bentuk logaritma dengan tujuan untuk memperhalus data (smoothing) sehingga dapat mengurangi variasi data yang dipergunakan dalam studi. selain itu, di dalam model, t menunjukkan indeks waktu kuartalan; j menunjukkan jumlah lag (kelambanan) kuartal yang terpilih berdasarkan estimasi terbaik; β, φ, δ menunjukkan parameter masing-masing variabel; dan e1t, e2t, e3t merupakan komponen galat. asumsi yang harus dipenuhi dalam analisis var ialah semua variabel bersifat stasioner dan semua residual memiliki mean, varian, kovarian yang konstan, serta tidak ada korelasi antar variabel. jika ternyata data tidak stasioner pada derajat level, maka data tersebut harus mengalami proses diferensi hingga stasioner. stasioneritas data melalui proses diferensi belum cukup sehingga perlu dipertimbangkan keberadaan hubungan jangka panjang dan pendek dalam model. jika ternyata ditemukan keberadaan kointegrasi, maka dapat diterapkan sistem persamaan vecm (vector error correction model) sebagai bentuk var yang terestriksi. sehingga, studi ini lebih diarahkan pada var dalam bentuk vecm karena diduga variabel yang diteliti tidak stasioner pada derajat level dan terdapat keberadaan kointegrasi. namun demikian, ternyata terdapat kelemahan dari vecm sama halnya dengan var menurut gujarati (2004) karena vecm dinilai kurang cocok jika digunakan dalam analisis kebijakan, dengan dalih sifatnya yang ateori dan lebih menekankan pada peramalan. sehingga, analisis vecm dalam studi ini lebih ditekankan pada pendekatan impulse response function (irf) yang melacak respon saat ini dan masa depan setiap variabel akibat perubahan variabel tertentu dan variance decomposition yang memprediksi kontribusi persentase varians masing-masing variabel terhadap perubahan variabel tertentu. hasil dan pembahasan uji stasioneritas data uji stasioneritas data yang dilakukan dalam studi ini menggunakan uji adf (augmented dickey fuller). uji adf sendiri dilakukan dengan menghitung nilai t statistik jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 1, april 2014: 37-47 42 yang dihitung melalui formula berikut: tα = α α 4) di mana α adalah nilai estimasi untuk α dan α adalah koefisien standard error. nilai t statistik yang diperoleh kemudian dibandingkan dengan nilai kritismc kinnon. jika nilai t statistik lebih besar dari nilai kritis mc kinnon, maka hipotesis h0 diterima sehingga dapat diinterpretasikan bahwa data tersebut tidak stasioner karena disinyalir memiliki akar unit. sebaliknya, jika nilai t statistik lebih kecil dari nilai kritis mckinnon, maka hipotesis h0 tidak diterima sehingga cukup bukti untuk menolak hipotesis nol bahwa data tersebut mengandung akar unit atau dapat diinterpretasikan bahwa data stasioner. uji stasioneritas variabel nilai tukar riil (lrer), output nasional (lgdp), dan neraca perdagangan (lgdp) pada derajat level dan seluruh data belum stasioner pada derajat level i(0). uji derajat integrasi jika ternyata data pada uji akar unit sudah stasioner pada derajat level i(0), maka tidak perlu lagi dilakukan uji derajat integrasi. namun, jika data yang diuji belum stasioner pada derajat level i(0), maka perlu dilakukan uji derajat integrasi melalui proses diferensiasi data. jika data sudah stasioner pada derajat diferensi satu, maka data tersebut sudah terintegrasi pada derajat i(1). jika ternyata belum stasioner, maka berlanjut pada proses diferensi kedua. jika ternyata data sudah stasioner pada derajat diferensi dua, maka data tersebut sudah terintegrasi pada derajat i(2). uji stasioneritas variabel nilai tukar riil (lrer), output nasional (lgdp), dan neraca perdagangan (lgdp) pada derajat i(1). hasil uji akar unit menunjukkan bahwa seluruh variabel telah stasioner pada derajat diferensi satu atau i(1) setelah melalui proses diferensi. penentuan lag optimal penentuan lag optimal pada studi ini dilakukan melalui dua tahap pengujian, yaknimemilih lag optimal berdasarkan kriteria tertentu dan mendeteksi panjang lag optimal sistam var yang stabil melalui nilai akar inversi karakteristik ar polinomialnya. suatu sistem var dapat dikatakan stabil jika seluruh akarnya memiliki modulus kurang dari satu dan semuanya terletak di dalam lingkaran unit. ada pun penentuan lag optimal pada sistem persamaan var yang dibangun dengan variabel lrer, lgdp, dan ltb ketiganya merujuk lag 5 sebagai lag optimal dalam sistem var. sementara itu, untuk menguji apakah lag 5 sudah stabil atau belum, maka dapat dilihat nilai modulusnya yang menunjukkan bahwa sistem var yang dibangun dengan lag 5 sudah stabil karena seluruh akarnya memiliki modulus kurang dari satu. namun, terdapat perbedaan jumlah lag antara var dengan vecm, yakni ketika lag optimal pada var adalah p, maka lag pada vecm adalah p-1 (nelmida, 2009). sehingga, lag optimalnya adalah 4. pemilihan lag pada studi ini ternyata sesuai jika didasarkan pada pendekatan stok, yakni dengan rumus k = n1/3 di mana n adalah jumlah observasi. sehingga, lag yang dipergunakan dalam studi ini ialah lag 4 karena dinilai sudah cukup untuk menangkap sistem dinamis dengan basis data kuartalan. uji kointegrasi hasil uji kointegrasi dalam studi menunjukkan bahwa menurut kriteria aic, spesifikasi deterministiknya adalah quadratic intercept and trend. setelah tren data diketahui, langkah berikutnya ialah menentukan apakah data terkointegrasi atau tidak. jika nilai max-eigen dan nilai tracenya lebih besar daripada nilai kritis 1% atau 5%, maka dapat dikatakan data terkointegrasi. berdasarkan pengujian nilai statistik trace yang ditunjukkanlebih besar dari nilai kritis 5% dan 1%. sementara, nilai statistik max-eigen juga lebih besar dari nilai kritis 5%, sehingga dapat disimpulkan bahwa data tersebut terkointegrasi yang menandakan bahwa terdapat hubungan jangka panjang antara variabel nilai tukar riil, neraca perdagangan, dan output nasional. satu vektor kointegrasi, atau setidaknya terdapat satu kombinasi linier independen dari variabelvariabel yang terdapat dalam model tersebut. terkointegrasinya data memberikan sinyal yang tepat untuk menggunakan metode vecm. depresiasi nilai tukar riil ... (romi bhakti hartarto) 43 estimasi vecm apabila suatu data runtut waktu model var terbukti terdapat hubungan kointegrasi, maka vecm dapat dipergunakan untuk mengetahui tingkah laku jangka pendek suatu variabel terhadap nilai jangka panjangnya. perilaku dinamis dari vecm dapat dilihat dari respon masing-masing variabel endogen terhadap kejutan variabel tersebut maupun terhadap variabel endogen lain. karena secara individual koefisien dalam model vecm sulit diinterpretasikan, maka terdapat dua cara untuk melihat karakteristik dinamis vecm, yakni melalui impulse response dan dekomposisi varian. fungsi impulse response fungsi impulse response melacak respon dari variabel endogen dalam sistem vecm karena adanya perubahan komponen galat yakni dengan menggambarkan perkiraan k-periode di masa mendatang melalui kesalahan prediksi suatu variabel akibat inovasi dari variabel lain. pembahasan mengenai irf dalam studi ini lebih difokuskan terhadap respon neraca perdagangan dan output nasional akibat perubahan variabel nilai tukar riil. hasil irf tersebut, respon neraca perdagangan dan output nasional akibat gejolak nilai tukar riil dapat diinterpretasikan lebih lanjut. gejolak variabel nilai tukar riil mula-mula tidak langsung direspon oleh neraca perdagangan pada kuartal pertama. hingga kemudian, pada kuartal kedua, gejolak nilai tukar riil direspon positif oleh neraca perdagangan sebesar 0,045 sd. namun pada kuartal ketiga dan keempat, respon neraca perdagangan kemudian menjadi negatif. hingga kuartal kelima, respon neraca perdagangan kembali meningkat dan cenderung stabil pada kuartal berikutnya pada kisaran 0,015 sd. sehingga, depresiasi nilai tukar pada awalnya memiliki hubungan positif terhadap neraca perdagangan, namun kemudian hubungannya negatif dalam jangka pendek hingga dampak akhirnya berhubungan positif dalam jangka panjang meskipun respon yang diterima gambar 2. impulse response antara variabel nilai tukar riil, neraca perdagangan, dan output nasional -.03 -.02 -.01 .00 .01 .02 .03 .04 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 response of lrer to lrer -.03 -.02 -.01 .00 .01 .02 .03 .04 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 response of lrer to lgdp -.03 -.02 -.01 .00 .01 .02 .03 .04 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 response of lrer to ltb -.004 .000 .004 .008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 response of lgdp to lrer -.004 .000 .004 .008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 response of lgdp to lgdp -.004 .000 .004 .008 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 response of lgdp to ltb -.05 .00 .05 .10 .15 .20 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 response of ltb to lrer -.05 .00 .05 .10 .15 .20 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 response of ltb to lgdp -.05 .00 .05 .10 .15 .20 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 response of ltb to ltb response to nonfactorized one s.d. innovations jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 1, april 2014: 37-47 44 tidak begitu besar. sehingga, tidak ditemukan bukti kuat yang mendukung adanya fenomena kurva-j. hasil dari studi ini justru menyerupai pola kurva-s sebagaimana dalam studi onafowora (2003) untuk kasus thailand dengan jepang. penjelasan dari pola ini lebih kepada alasan perilaku para eksportir. indonesia merupakan negara dengan kandungan bahan baku impor cukup tinggi pada produk ekspornya, terutama pada sektor industri. pada saat terjadi depresiasi nilai tukar riil, daya saing produk domestik di pasar internasional meningkat. dengan asumsi bahwa stok bahan baku impor untuk produksi barang ekspor mencukupi, eksportir akan merespon kondisi tersebut dengan meningkatkan ekspor produknya menggunakan stok bahan baku impor yang tersedia sehingga eksportir tidak perlu mengimpor bahan baku dalam jumlah banyak. dalam hal ini, kenaikan ekspor melebihi kenaikan impor sehingga posisi neraca perdagangan mula-mula meningkat. kemudian pada periode selanjutnya, stok bahan baku impor yang tersedia terkuras akibat penggunaan pada periode sebelumnya sehingga terjadi penurunan ekspor dibanding periode sebelumnya karena kurangnya bahan baku impor untuk memproduksi barang ekspor. dan pada saat yang sama eksportir merespon hal tersebut dengan mengimpor bahan baku lebih banyak untuk mencukupi produksi barang ekspor pada periode selanjutnya sehingga kenaikan impor melebihi kenaikan ekspor yang menyebabkan terjadi penurunan posisi neraca perdagangan. hingga pada periode-periode berikutnya, eksportir akan terus melakukan penyesuaian dengan mengekspor lebih banyak akibat peningkatan daya saing produk domestik dan lebih sedikit mengimpor akibat relatif mahalnya bahan baku impor. hal ini menyebabkan kenaikan ekspor melebihi kenaikan impor dan secara terus menerus proses penyesuaian ini akan kembali pada posisi neraca perdagangan yang kian membaik. maka dari itu, terdapat hubungan positif antara depresiasi nilai tukar riil dengan neraca perdagangan pada horizon waktu lebih panjang meskipun pengaruhnya relatif kecil. implikasinya adalah terdapat faktor lain selain nilai tukar yang mempengaruhi kinerja ekspor, terutama dari sisi penawaran semisal kontrol kualitas produk, efisiensi sistem produksi, besarnya kandungan impor, dan kebijakan pemerintah semisal penciptaan iklim persaingan usaha. sementara, respon output nasional sendiri terhadap depresiasi nilai tukar riil ialah negatif semenjak kuartal kedua hingga seterusnya. kenaikan variabel nilai tukar riil sebesar 1 sd mula-mula tidak direspon oleh variabel output nasional hingga pada kuartal kedua direspon dengan penurunan output nasional sebesar 0,0005 sd di mana cenderung terus mengalami penurunan hingga sebesar 0,0042 pada kuartal 11. sehingga, dalam jangka panjang, depresiasi nilai tukar riil memiliki hubungan negatif terhadap output nasional. hasil dari studi ini sejalan dengan studi sebelumnya yang dilakukan oleh suselo, sihaloho, dan tarsidin (2008) dan darwanto (2007) di mana terjadi kontraksi output akibat depresiasi nilai tukar riil. penjelasan dari hal ini ialah depresiasi nilai tukar riil menyebabkan harga bahan baku impor sebagai input produksi industri domestik relatif mahal sehingga menurunkan kapasitas produksi yang mengakibatkan kontraksi output. selain itu, depresiasi nilai tukar riil menyebabkan produk domestik dengan kandungan impor tinggi mengalami kenaikan biaya produksi sehingga harga jual produk tersebut naik. kenaikan harga produk tersebut mengakibatkan penurunan konsumsi masyarakat sehingga dalam hal ini, produsen mengalami disinsentif untuk berproduksi. dekomposisi varian dekomposisi varian merupakan properti model vecm yang memisahkan varian dari sejumlah variabel yang diestimasi menjadi komponen gejolak. berbeda dengan irf, dekomposisi varian memberikan informasi m engenai proporsi dari pengaruh gejolak suatu variabel terhadap guncangan variabel lain pada saat ini dan periode mendatang. ada pun pengaruh gejolak variabel nilai tukar riil terhadap gejolak variabel neraca perdagangan dapat digambarkan pada tabel 8. tabel 8 menjelaskan dekomposisi varian dari variabel neraca perdagangan. pada periode pertama, kontribusi nilai tukar riil dalam menjelaskan variabilitas neraca perdagangan cukup depresiasi nilai tukar riil ... (romi bhakti hartarto) 45 besar, yakni sebesar 12,97 persen. namun, kontribusi kejutan nilai tukar riil terhadap neraca perdagangan terus menurun dalam horizon waktulebih panjang. hal ini berbeda dengan kontribusi output nasional dalam menjelaskan variabilitas neraca perdagangan. pada dua periode awal, kejutan pada output nasional hanya mampu menjelaskan kurang dari 1% variabilitas neraca perdagangan namun kemudian kontribusinya terus mengalami kenaikan pada jangka waktu lebih panjang hingga mencapai 6,24 persen pada kuartal 12. tabel 9 menjelaskan dekomposisi varian dari variabel output nasional. pada periode pertama, variabel output nasional hanya dipengaruhi oleh variabel itu sendiri. namun kemudian, pengaruh output nasional terhadap dirinya sendiri berkurang seiring dengan peningkatan kontribusi variabel nilai tukar riil dan neraca perdagangan dalam menjelaskan variabilitas output nasional. pada jangka waktu lebih panjang, variabilitas output nasional mampu dijelaskan oleh kejutan nilai tukar riil dan neraca perdagangan masing-masing sebesar 12,31 persen dan 3,6 persen pada kuartal 12. ditinjau dari tabel 8 dan 9, kontribusi kejutan nilai tukar riil lebih berpengaruh pada variasi output nasional dibandingkan neraca perdagangan dalam horizon waktu lebih panjang. sementara untuk jangka waktu lebih pendek, kejutan nilai tukar riil lebih mampu menjelaskan variabilitas neraca perdagangan dibandingkan output nasional. simpulan kesimpulan yang berhasil diperoleh dari studi ini antara lain: pertama, depresiasi nilai tukar riil memiliki hubungan positif terhadap neraca perdagangan dalam horizon waktu yang lebih panjang meskipun pengaruhnya tidak begitu besar. hal ini salah satunya juga dikarenakan pengaruh kejutan nilai tukar riil dalam menjelaskan variasi neraca perdagangan tidak begitu besar. implikasinya, terdapat faktor lain di luar model selain nilai tukar riil yang berpengaruh terhadap neraca perdagangan semisal kontrol kualitas produk, efisiensi sistem produksi, dan besarnya kandungan impor produk. kedua berdasarkan analisis irf, tidak ditemukan bukti kuat bahwa terjadi fenomena kurva-j pada studi ini. studi ini justru menemukan pola yang menyerupai kurva-s di mana depresiasi nilai tukar riil pada mulanya memperbaiki neraca perdagangan, lalu sesaat kemudian menurunkan posisi neraca perdagangan, dan selanjutnya terus mengalami penyesuaian hingga posisi neraca perdagangan kembali membaik dalam horizon waktu yang lebih panjang. ketiga, depresiasi nilai tukar riil memiliki hubungan negatif terhadap output nasional atau dalam hal ini justru terkait dengan kontraksi output. pengaruh kejutan nilai tukar riil dalam variasi output nasional tidak begitu besar namun kontribusinya semakin membesar dalam horizon waktu yang lebih panjang. saran yang dapat dijadikan sebagai acuan tabel 8. dekomposisi varian variabel neraca perdagangan period s.e dijelaskan oleh kejutan output nasional nilai tukar riil neraca perdagangan 1 0,170108 2,83e-07 12,97041 87,02959 2 0,218557 0,000392 7,972344 92,02726 3 0,264840 2,093536 11,98290 85,92357 4 0,278217 2,859866 12,65711 84,48303 5 0,286692 3,467380 12,57112 83,96150 6 0,299207 3,237356 12,56543 84,19722 7 0,314911 3,031721 11,66764 85,30063 8 0,339149 3,607968 10,87601 85,51603 9 0,360595 4,915482 10,04484 85,03968 10 0,374536 5,423839 9,676775 84,89939 11 0,385507 5,736708 9,437228 84,82606 12 0,397620 6,243666 9,119711 84,63662 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 1, april 2014: 37-47 46 atau gambaran bagi pengambil kebijakan menurut hasil studi ini antara lain: pertama, kebijakan yang terkait nilai tukar hendaknya diikuti oleh kebijakan yang dapat menekan dampak jalur langsung nilai tukar terhadap inflasi sehingga kebijakan nilai tukar secara efektif juga merupakan kebijakan nilai tukar riil sehingga kebijakan nilai tukar dapat memperbaiki posisi neraca perdagangan dalam horizon waktu lebih panjang. kedua, untuk mendorong ekspor atau meningkatkan posisi neraca perdagangan, otoritas moneter hendaknya tidak mempergunakan depresiasi nilai tukar sebagai satu-satunya alat karena dalam rezim nilai tukar mengambang bebas nilai tukar terus berfluktuasi. selain itu juga karena pengaruhnya terhadap neraca perdagangan tidak begitu besar dan mekanisme penyesuaiannya agak lama. kebijakan yang diambil untuk peningkatan daya saing tidak hanya dari segi harga murah tetapi juga perbaikan kualitas dan iklim usaha bagi eksportir. ketiga, berdasarkan hasil studi, depresiasi nilai tukar riil ternyata memiliki hubungan negatif terhadap output, yakni menyebabkan terjadinya kontraksi output. sehingga dalam hal ini, otoritas moneter harus menjaga agar nilai tukar tidak terdepresiasi tajam. daftar pustaka ahmad dan yang. (2004). estimation the jcurve in china. economic series no. 67. arintoko dan wijaya. (2005). pengaruh perubahan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap neraca transaksi berjalan indonesia periode 1990.i – 2004.ii (kasus indonesia – amerika serikat). buletin ekonomi moneter dan perbankan. astiyah dan santoso. (2005). nilai tukar dan trade flows. buletin ekonomi moneter dan perbankan. darwanto. (2007). kejutan pertumbuhan nilai tukar riil terhadap inflasi, pertumbuhan output, dan pertumbuhan neraca transaksi berjalan di indonesia. jurnal ekonomi pembangunan vol. 12, no.1. enders, walter. (1995). applied econometric time series. new york: john wiley & son. gujarati, damodar. (2004). basic econometric, 4thedition. singapore: mcgrawhill. harris, r. 1995. cointegration analysis in econometric modelling. new york: prentice hall. husman, j. a. 2005. pengaruh nilai tukar rill terhadap neraca perdagangan bilateral indonesia: kondisi marshall-lerner dan fenomena j-curve. buletin ekonomi moneter dan perbankan julaihah dan insukindro. 2004. analisis dampak kebijakan moneter terhadap variabel makroekonomi di indonesia tahun 1983.12003.2. buletin ekonomi moneter dan perbankan. khatoon dan rahman. 2009. assessing the existence of the j-curve effect in bangladesh. the bangladesh development studies vol. xxxii, june 2009, no. 2 onafowora, o. (2003). exchange rate and trade balance in east asia: is there a j−curve?. economics bulletin, vol. 5, no. 18 hlm. 1−13 petrovic dan gligoric. (2009). exchange rate and trade balance: j-curve effect. panoeconomicus 2010, 1, hlm. 23-41. prawoto, n. (2003). pengaruh perubahan kurs dan tingkat suku bunga terhadap tabungan dan investasi swasta: studi empiris di indonesia periode 1993.1-2001.1. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol 4 no.1 april 2003. suselo, s dan tarsidin. (2008). pengaruh volatilitas nilai tukar terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi indonesia. buletin ekonomi moneter dan perbankan. microsoft word 06-syamsul jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 1, april 2014, hlm.55-63 determinan kinerja keuangan bank perkreditan rakyat konvensional syamsul maryadi1, agus tri basuki2 1 institute of public policy and economic studies jalan kenari 13 sidoarum iii yogyakarta, indonesia 2 fakultas ekonomi, universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta jalan lingkar selatan, bantul, yogyakarta 55183 indonesia, phone: +62 274 387656 e-mail korespondensi: agustribasuki@yahoo.com naskah diterima: september 2013; disetujui: februari 2014 abstract: the research aims to analyze the banking management rate (liquidity rate and credit distribution rate, asset quality rate, capital rate, and the operational efficiency rate) to the return on asset (roa) of bank perkreditan rakyat (bpr). the sample that is used in this research taken from bprs which operate in yogyakarta. the research uses the regression model of panel data with two-ways-fixed-effect. the result shows that liquidity rate and credit distribution rate (loan to deposit ratio) is not significant to roa. asset quality rate (nonperforming loan) and operational efficiency rate (bopo) has significantly negative influence to roa while capital rate (capital adequacy ratio) has positive and significant impact to roa. keywords: roa; loan to deposit ratio; non-performing loan; capital adequacy ratio; bopo jel classification: g21, g23 abstrak: studi ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui dan menganalisis pengaruh tingkat rasio kesehatan bank (tingkat likuiditas dan penyaluran kredit, tingkat kualitas aset, tingkat kecukupan modal dan tingkat efisiensi operasional) terhadap kinerja keuangan (return on asset) bank perkreditan rakyat konvensional di daerah istimewa yogyakarta periode juni 2009-april 2013. sampel dalam studi ini adalah seluruh bank perkreditan rakyat konvensional yang beroperasi di kabupaten dan kota daerah istimewa yogyakarta. studi ini menggunakan model regresi data panel dengan model two-ways fixed-effect (efek tetap dua arah). hasil studi menunjukkan bahwa tingkat likuiditas dan penyaluran kredit (loan to deposit ratio) berpengaruh tidak signifikan terhadap kinerja keuangan, tingkat kualitas aset (non performing loan) dan tingkat efisiensi operasional (bopo) berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap kinerja keuangan sementara tingkat kecukupan modal (capital adequacy ratio) berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap kinerja keuangan. kata kunci: roa; loan to deposit ratio; non-performing loan; capital adequacy ratio; bopo klasifikasi jel: g21, g23 pendahuluan bank adalah salah satu lembaga keuangan yang berperan sebagai lembaga intermediasi sekaligus sebagai penggerak langsung pada sektor riil. menurut undang-undang ri no. 10 tahun 1998 tentang perbankan,berdasarkan jenisnya bank dapat dibedakan menjadi dua, yaitu bank umum dan bank perkreditan rakyat. keberadaan bank perkreditan rakyat di tengahtengah dominasi bank umum sangat diperlukan karena memiliki pasar khusus untuk meningkatkan produktivitas sektor riil, khususnya bagi usaha-usaha mikro, kecil dan menengah. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 1, april 2014: 55-63 56 perkembangan bpr di diy khususnya bpr konvensional selama dua puluh tahun terakhir sangat berkembang pesat. dari data bank indonesia pada tahun 1987-1988, jumlah bpr konvensional yang beroperasi di diy hanya sebanyak 11 bank. namun sejak tahun 1994 jumlah bpr konvensional di diy bertambah menjadi 51 bank dan diawal tahun 2013 jumlah bpr konvensional yang tercatat di bank indonesia mencapai 54 bank. pesatnya bisnis perbankan di diy membuat bank-bank tersebut harus selalu menjaga kinerja keuangannya sehingga tidak menimbulkan masalah dalam kegiatan operasionalnya. secara umum, kinerja keuangan bpr konvensional diy yang dilihat dari rasio return on asset selama lima tahun terakhir menunjukkan rasio yang tergolong aman bagi bank karena diatas 1,215% sesuai yang ditetapkan bank indonesia dalam pengkategorian tingkat kesehatan bpr.terdapat banyak faktor yang dapat mempengaruhi perubahan return on asset bank, seperti faktor internal bank, kondisi makro ekonomi maupun faktor dari nasabah baik faktor kreditur maunpun debitur. menurut mahardian (2008), faktor terbesar yang mempengaruhi return on asset bank adalah tingkat effisiensi operasional yang dilihat dari rasio bopo bank. tingginya rasio bopo menunjukkan belum optimalnya margin pendapatan opersional bank terhadap biaya operasionalnya yang menunjukkan tidak efisiennya kegiatan usaha bank. tidak efisiennya operasional bank biasanya disebabkan oleh beberapa faktor, seperti tidak mampunya manajemen dalam mengelola bank akibat rendahnya sumber daya manusia yang dimiliki, rendahnya pemasaran produk, biaya operasional yang terlalu tinggi karena sistem bunga dan lokasi bank yang tidak strategis. namun jika rasio bopo bank rendah menunjukkan bahwa bank tersebut mampu mengoptimalkan margin pendapatan operasionalnya atas biaya operasionalnya, sehingga dalam keadaan demikian bank efisien dalam menggunakan sumber daya yang dimiliki baik sumber daya modal maupun sumber daya manusia. selain faktor tingkat efisiensi, faktor lain yang dapat mempengaruhi kinerja keuangan bank adalah terjadinya kredit gagal bayar (non performing loan) yang dapat mengurangi pendapatan bank dari sisi kredit. umumnya sebagian besar kredit yang disalurkan oleh bank perkreditan rakyat konvensional di diy memiliki kolektibilitas rendah. hal ini ditunjukkan oleh cukup tingginya rasio non performing loan bank. dimana sejak tahun 2008-2013, rasio npl bpr konvensional rata-rata diatas rasio yang ditetapkan bank indonesia yaitu sebesar 5%. tingginya rasio non performing loan jelas dapat menurunkan tingkat likuiditas bank yang berdampak terhadap ketidakmampuan bank dalam menutupi biaya operasional atas tanggungan terhadap suku bunga deposito maupun tingkat kecukupan modal bank. ketidakmampuan bank dalam membayar kewajibannya akan menurunkan kepercayaan nasabah terhadap bank dan nantinya jelas akan berdampak juga terhadap penurunan kinerja bank. selain faktor di atas, faktor lain yang dapat mempengaruhi kinerja adalah tingkat kecukupan modal dan juga besarnya penyaluran kredit yang dilakukan oleh bank. dengan adanya modal yang cukup, maka bank akan memiliki peluang besar untuk menggunakannya untuk tujuan produktif, sehingga akan meningkatkan pemenuhan bank. adanya ekspansi kredit yang dilakukan oleh bank jelas akan meningkatkan profitabilitas bank dari sisi kredit. jika bank dapat menjaga tingkat kecukupan modal dan tingkat penyaluran kredit tanpa mengesampingkan tingkat likuiditasnya, maka akan meningkatkan kepercayaan masyarakat terhadap bank dan juga kinerja keuangan bank dari sisi pendapatan. untuk mengukur tingkat kecukupan modal bank biasanya digunakan capital adequacy ratio,sedangkan untuk mengukur besarnya penyaluran kredit dan juga tingkat likuiditas umumnya digunakan loan to deposit ratio. maka perlu adanya studi mengenai faktorfaktor yang mempengaruhi roa bank perkreditan rakyat konvensional di daerah istimewa yogyakarta sebagai implementasi pengukuran kinerja bank dalam mengelola dan memanfaatkan asetnya untuk menghasilkan laba dengan mengambil sampel dari keseluruhan bpr konvensional yang ada di kabupaten bantul, gunung kidul, kulon progo, sleman dan kota yogyakarta. determinan kinerja keuangan ...(syamsul maryadi, agus tri basuki) 57 metode penelitian studi ini menggunakan analisis kuantitatif dan data sekunder berupa data runtut waktu dan cross section dalam bentuk data bulanan. data dalam studi ini diperoleh dari statistik bank perkreditan rakyat konvensional bank indonesia. seluruh variabel dalam studi ini merupakan rata-rata rasio seluruh bpr konvensional dari setiap satuan kerja wilayah operasional di daerah istimewa yogyakarta dari bulan juli 2009 sampai dengan april 2013. ada pun rinciannya tertera pada tabel 1. tabel 1. jenis variabel, konsep, dan satuan variabel konsep satuan roa roa merupakan rasio perbandingan antara laba sebelum pajak dengan rata-rata total aset persen ldr ldr merupakan rasio perbandingan antara total kredit yang disalurkan dengan jumlah dana pihak ketiga (dpk) persen npl npl merupakan rasio perbandingan antara kredit bermasalah dengan total kredit yang disalurkan oleh bank persen car car merupakan rasio perbandingan antara total modal dengan total aktiva tertimbang menurut risiko (atmr) persen bopo bopo merupakan rasio perbandingan antara total biaya operasional dengan total pendapatan operasional persen sehingga dari beberapa variabel yang digunakan dalam studi maka dapat dibuat suatu model studi sebagai berikut: = + + + + 1) di mana: y adalah return on asset; adalah konstanta; , , , adalah koefisien variabel 1,2,3,4; adalah loan to deposit ratio; adalah non performing ratio; adalah capital adequacy ratio; adalah bopo; i adalah kabupaten; t adalah periode waktu ke-t; adalah error term. untuk menjawab permasalahan ini dapat dilakukan uji kualitas data, uji hipotesis dan analisa data. uji kualitas data terdiri dari uji heteroskedastisitas dan multikolinearitas. tabel 2. uji heteroskedastisitas dengan uji park variabel probabilitas c 0,416 lnldr 0,486 lnnpl 0,533 lncar 0,848 lnbopo 0,865 ket: ***signifikan 1%, **signifikan 5%, *signifikan 10% berdasarkan hasil uji park dari tabel di atas, maka dapat disimpulkan bahwa data yang digunakan terbebas dari masalah heteroskedastisitas. selain itu, tidak terdapat pula adanya multikolinearitas antara variabel independen. karena tidak adanya koefisien korelasi antar variabel yang lebih besar dari |0,9|. untuk menentukan model terbaik, dilakukan uji hausman guna mengetahui dan menentukan model terbaik antara random effect model (rem) dan fixed effect model (fem) dalam metode panel data, yang kemudian diperoleh nilai chi-square sebagai berikut (lihat tabel 3): tabel 3. hasil uji hausmantest (fixed effectsrandom effects) chi-square = 75,54190 p-value= 0,000000 berdasarkan tabel 3, dapat diketahui bahwa model yang digunakan adalah fixed effects (efek tetap). uji selanjutnya adalah breusch-pagan yang digunakan untuk mengetahui apakah dalam model panel data terdapat efek cross section atau efek waktu yang kemudian diperoleh hasil uji yang tersaji dalam tabel 4. tabel 4. hasil uji breusch-pagan test (cross section effects-time effects) hypothesa statistics p-value : c = 0 849,0377 0,000000 : d = 0 15,72774 7,31e-05 : c = 0, d = 0 864,7655 0,000384 ket: c = cross section, d = time jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 1, april 2014: 55-63 58 berdasarkan tabel 4, dapat diketahui bahwa model yang digunakan adalah model analisis efek dua arah. sehingga, berdasarkan hasil uji hausman dan uji breusch-pagan, maka dapat disimpulkan model yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah model data panel dengan twoways fixed-effect (efek tetap dua arah) yang memuat komponen cross-section dan time yang diimplementasikan dengan variabel dummy. model ini memberikan arti bahwa adanya perbedaan karakteristik di antara observasi dan periode, sehingga terdapat intersep berbeda pada setiap observasi dan periode. berikut ini hasil estimasi data panel dengan jumlah observasi sebanyak 5 kabupaten selama periode bulan juni 2009 sampai dengan april 2013: roa bantul = 0,462 (efek wilayah) + efek waktu + 15,244 – 0,005*ldr bantul – 0,123*npl bantul + 0,047*car bantul – 0,152*bopo bantul roa gunung kidul = – 0,646 (efek wilayah) + efek waktu + 15,244 – 0,005*ldr gunung kidul – 0,123*npl gunung kidul + 0,047*car gunung kidul – 0,152*bopo gunung kidul roa kulon progo = 0,337 (efek wilayah) + efek waktu + 15,244 – 0,005*ldr kulon progo – 0,123*npl kulon progo + 0,047*car kulon progo – 0,152*bopo kulon progo roa sleman = 0,398 (efek wilayah) + efek waktu + 15,244 – 0,005*ldr sleman – 0,123*npl sleman + 0,047*car sleman – 0,152*bopo sleman roa kota yogyakarta = – 0,550 (efek wilayah) + efek waktu + 15,244 – 0,005*ldr kota yogyakarta – 0,123*npl kota yogyakarta + 0,047*car kota yogyakarta – 0,152*bopo kota yogyakarta pada model estimasi di atas, nampak bahwa adanya pengaruh variabel cross-section yang berbeda di setiap kabupaten dan kota yang ada di diy terhadap kinerja keuangan bpr konvensional. kabupaten bantul, kulon progo dan sleman memiliki pengaruh efek cross-section yang bernilai positif, yaitu memiliki nilai koefisien masing-masing sebesar 0,462; 0,337; dan 0,398. sementara itu, kabupaten gunung kidul dan kota yogyakarta memiliki efek cross-section negatif, yaitu -0,646 dan -0,550. selain itu, dengan adanya penambahan efek waktu dalam model analisis juga memberikan pengaruh yang berbeda-beda di setiap bulannya terhadap kinerja keuangan bpr konvensional yang ada di diy. jika dilihat dari variabel independen, hanya variabel loan to deposit ratio tidak signifikan terhadap kinerja keuangan bpr konvensional di diy. sementara variabel lainya, yaitu non performing loan, capital adequacy ratio dan bopo masing-masing signifikan terhadap kinerja keuangan (return on asset) bpr konvensional di diy. kenaikan rasio kredit macet (non performing loan) sebesar 1% akan menurunkan rasio return on asset sebesar 0,123%. begitu juga dengan kenaikan variabel bopo sebesar 1% yang akan menurunkan rasio return on asset sebesar 0,152%. sedangkan variabel tingkat kecukupan modal (capital adequacy ratio) dengan kenaikan rasio sebesar 1% akan menaikkan rasio return on asset sebesar 0,047%. nilai determinasi (r-squared) dalam estimasi adalah sebesar 0,841, yang berarti bahwa variasi variabel endogen dapat dijelaskan oleh variabel bebasnya dalam persamaan sebesar 84,1% dan sisanya sebesar 15,9% dijelaskan oleh faktor-faktor lain di luar persamaan.jika dilihat dari hasil uji f, pengaruh yang ditimbulkan oleh keseluruhan variabel independen (bebas) terhadap variabel dependennya (terikat) adalah baik. hasil dan pembahasan berdasarkan hasil studi atau estimasi model di atas maka dapat dibuat suatu analisis dan pembahasan mengenai pengaruh variabel independen (loan to deposit ratio, non performing loan, capital adequacy ratio dan bopo) terhadap kinerja keuangan (return on asset) bpr konvensional di diy yang diinterpretasikan sebagai berikut: hasil analisis di atas menunjukkan bahwa determinan kinerja keuangan ...(syamsul maryadi, agus tri basuki) 59 variabel loan to deposit ratio memiliki hubungan yang negatif namun tidak berpengaruh nyata terhadap kinerja keuangan bpr kovensional yang beroperasi di diy. hasil studi ini sama seperti studi yang dilakukan oleh ongore dan kusa (2013), yang mendapatkan hasil bahwa loan to deposit ratio tidak signifikan terhadap return on asset bank. adanya ekspansi penyaluran kredit tidak serta merta dapat mendorong peningkatan profitabilitas bank. keadaan ini sangat lumrah terjadi pada bank yang menganut the doctrine of anticipated income, dimana adanya resiko dalam pengyaluran kredit yang sering mengalami kualitas rendah dan tidak bisa diprediksikan. sehingga penyaluran kredit yang dilakukan oleh bank akan rentan sekali untuk terjadinya gagal bayar oleh kreditur (lihat gambar 1). pada kasus bpr konvensional di diy, umumnya loan to deposit ratio yang dimiliki tergolong rendah dengan rata-rata rasio di bawah 94,75%, menunjukkan bahwa sebagian besar bpr konvensional yang beroperasi memiliki tingkat penyaluran kredit yang tidak terlalu tinggi jika dibandingkan dengan dana pihak ketiga yang terhimpun. hal tersebut akan berdampak pada berkurangnya selisih laba bunga yang didapat oleh bank akibat pendapatan bunga kredit yang tertekan oleh biaya bunga operasional dari dana pihak ketiga. dalam dunia perbankan, pergerakan rasio ldr dapat dipengaruhi oleh adanya perubahan pertumbuhan baik pada penyaluran kredit ataupun perubahan pertumbuhan pada dana pihak ketiga. berdasarkan gambar 1, tampak bahwa laju pertumbuhan penyaluran kredit memiliki pengaruh positif terhadap rasio ldr dan sebaliknya laju pertumbuhan dana pihak ketiga memiliki pengaruh negatif terhadap terhadap rasio ldr. adanya hubungan negatif antara rasio tingkat penyaluran kredit dengan rasio return on asset pada bpr konvensional di diy dapat membuktikan bahwa penyaluran kredit oleh perbankan di diy tidak serta merta dapat meningkatkan profitabilitas bank. keadaan ini dapat dibuktikan dari masih tingginya rasio kredit default yang terjadi di sebagian besar bpr konvensional yang ada di diy, di mana ratarata rasio non performing loan yang dimiliki berkisar di atas 5%. gambar 1 memperlihatkan bahwa pergerakan pertumbuhan penyaluran kredit bank berbanding lurus dengan tingkat kredit default, artinya ketika terjadi peningkatan penyaluran kredit, sebagian besar kredit yang disalurkan tersebut memiliki kualitas yang rendah. rendahnya tingkat penyaluran kredit di sumber: bank indonesia (diolah) gambar 1. perkembangan dan pertumbuhan kredit dan dpk, rasio npl dan ldr periode kuartal ii 2009-kuartal i 2013 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 1, april 2014: 55-63 60 sertai dengan kualitas kredit yang rendah dan tingginya biaya dana operasional tentu akan berdampak pada kinerja keuangan bank. keadaan tersebut didasarkan oleh beberapa hal, yaitu: pertama, rendahnya kualitas kredit pada bank akan berpengaruh pada alokasi modal pelengkap bank untuk tujuan produktif akibat adanya dana penyisihan aktiva produktif untuk menjaga tingkat kecukupan modal. sehingga dengan semakin menipisnya modal bank untuk tujuan produktif dapat mengurangi ekspansi penyaluran kredit yang berdampak pada berkurangnya kesempatan bank untuk memperoleh pendapatan berupa bunga kredit atas aset yang dimiliki. kedua, rendahnya porsi penyaluran kredit dibandingkan dana pihak ketiga yang terhimpun dapat mengurangi laba bank akibat pendapatan bunga kredit yang tertekan oleh biaya bunga, keadaan tersebut akan diperparah lagi jika kredit yang disalurkan memiliki kualitas rendah. adanya hubungan positif antara tingkat pertumbuhan penyaluran kredit dengan tingkat kredit default dan adanya tingkat penyaluran kredit yang selama lima tahun terakhir masih tergolong rendah jika dibandingkan dengan porsi dana pihak ketiga yang terhimpun, membuat bpr-bpr konvensional yang beroperasi di diy terindikasi kurang memperhatikan aspek kehati-hatian dalam menilai calon debitur pada saat melakukan penyaluran kredit. sehingga untuk meningkatkan nilai rentabilitas pada bpr-bpr konvensional yang beroperasi di diy, maka perlu adanya penerapan prinsip kehati-hatian oleh bank, seperti dengan menerapkan prinsip 5c (character, capacity, capital, condition of economic dan collateral), 7p (personality, party, purpose, prospect, payment, profitability dan protection) dan 3r (returns, repayment dan risk bearing ability). pada kasus bank yang memiliki tingkat kredit default tinggi, adanya prinsip kehati-hatian ini di satu sisi tentu akan menurunkan kuantitas kredit bank, namun di sisi lain jelas akan meningkatkan kualitas dari kredit yang disalurkan. sehingga dengan adanya kualitas kredit yang tinggi akan lebih menguntungkan bagi bank untuk memaksimalkan rentabilitasnya. keadaan ini umumnya terjadi pada bank yang wilayah kerjanya memiliki karaktersitik debitur yang terindikasi kurang bankable. terbukti dari analisis diatas di dapatkan bahwa loan to deposit ratio memiliki hubungan negatif terhadap kinerja keuangan (return on asset) bank. pengaruh non performing loan terhadap kinerja keuangan (return on asset) yaitu variabel non performing loan atau rasio perbandingan antara kredit default dengan kredit yang disalurkan memiliki pengaruh yang negatif dan signifikan terhadap kinerja keuangan (return on asset) bpr konvensional di diy. hasil studi ini sama seperti hasil studi yang dilakukan oleh ongore dan kusa (2013), karunia (2013), sukarno dan syaichu (2006), dan mawardi (2004). tingginya rasio non performing loan menunjukkan bahwa gagalnya bank dalam penyaluran kredit yang tercermin dari tingginya kredit gagal atau macet, sehingga dapat dikatakan kredit yang disalurkan memiliki kualitas yang rendah. adanya kualitas kredit yang rendah jelas akan mengurangi profitabilitas bank akibat besarnya cadangan penyisihan penghapusan aktiva produktif. selain itu, tingginya rasio non performing loan membuat bank akan lebih selektif dalam menentukan calon debiturnya sehingga akan mengurangi penyaluran kredit oleh bank. akibatnya, dengan penurunan kuantitas kredit tersebut akan berdampak juga pada pendapatan bank. adanya pengaruh capital adequacy ratio terhadap kinerja keuangan (return on asset). capital adequacy ratio merupakan rasio yang digunakan untuk mengukur kecukupan modal dan kapasitas bank dalam mempertahankan modalnya untuk kegiatan operasionalnya. dengan adanya modal yang cukup maka bank tidak akan kesulitan baik dalam hal untuk tujuan penyaluran kredit ataupun untuk menjaga tingkat likuiditas bank. sehingga bank akan lebih siap untuk memenuhi tujuan jangka pendeknya ataupun untuk tujuan jangka panjangnya. pada estimasi model studi di atas dapat diketahui bahwa capital adequacy ratio memiliki pengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap kinerja keuangan (return on asset) bank. hasil penelitian tersebut sama seperti yang pernah diutarakan oleh sabir dkk (2012). besarnya modal suatu bank jelas akan mempengaruhi jumlah aktiva produktifnya, sehingga asset utilization bank juga akan semakin meningkat. dengan determinan kinerja keuangan ...(syamsul maryadi, agus tri basuki) 61 semakin tingginya asset utilization bank, maka tentunya bank akan mudah mengelolanya sehingga dapat meningkatkan laba bank tersebut. selain itu, kokohnya permodalan bank juga akan meningkatkan ketahanan bank saat terjadi gejolak ekonomi dan juga dapat meningkatkan kepercayaan dari masyarakat terhadap bank itu sendiri. hasil pengaruh biaya operasional terhadap pendapatan operasional (bopo) terhadap kinerja keuangan (return on asset)diketahui bahwa rasio biaya operasional terhadap pendapatan operasional (bopo) merupakan rasio yang menunjukkan besarnya keberhasilan dan kualitas dari bank kaitannya dengan manajemen operasionalnya. semakin rendah rasio bopo menunjukkan bahwa bank dapat mengelola asetnya menjadi lebih produktif yang dapat menekan biaya operasionalnya. sehingga rasio bopo juga dapat dikatakan sebagai rasio yang menunjukkan tingkat efisiensi dari bank dalam kegiatan operasionalnya. berdasarkan hasil estimasi di atas, dapat diketahui bahwa rasio bopo memiliki pengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap kinerja keuangan (return on asset) bpr konvensional di diy. hasil studi ini dapat memperkuat beberapa hasil studi terdahulu, seperti studi yang dilakukan oleh sukarno dan syaichu (2006), akhtar dkk (tidak diterbitkan) dan mahardian (2008) yang menyatakan bahwa tingkat efisiensi bank yang direfleksikan dari rasio bopo berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap rasio return on asset bank. adanya pengaruh negatif antara rasio bopo dan return on asset menunjukkan bahwa jika bank semakin effisien dalam menjalankan kegiatan operasionalnya (rasio bopo yang rendah) maka jelas keadaan tersebut dapat meningkatkan kinerja keuangannya (rasio roa akan naik). sebaliknya, kinerja keuangan (return on asset) bank akan rendah jika bank tidak effisien dalam menjalankan kegiatan operasionalnya (rasio bopo yang tinggi). kondisi ini dapat terjadi akibat biaya operasional bank yang terlalu besar yang tidak dapat ditekan oleh pendapatan operasonalnya sehingga dapat mengurangi profitabilitas dari kegiatan operasional bank itu sendiri. jika dilihat dari kinerja keuangan (return on asset) bank selama tahun analisis, umumnya kinerja keuangan bpr konvensional yang beroperasi di diy memiliki rasio roa diatas 1,215%. keadaan tersebut menunjukkan bahwa sebagian besar bpr-bpr konvensional tersebut sudah cukup optimal dalam mencapai tujuan rentabilitasnya. kondisi berbeda terjadi pada bpr syariah yang beroperasi di diy, yang memiliki nilai rentabilitas yang masih tergolong rendah. adanya perbedaan kinerja keuangan antara bpr konvensional dan bpr syariah di diy menguatkan studi yang dilakukan oleh sabir dkk (2012) dan sukmayanti (2013), dimana dalam studinya diterangkan bahwa kinerja keuangan bpr konvensional lebih tinggi dari pada kinerja bpr syariah. rendahnya kinerja keuangan (return on asset) bpr syariah di diy umumnya disebabkan oleh rendahnya laba yang didapat sebelum pajak, bahkan tidak jarang di beberapa bank sering mengalami kerugian. sementara itu, jika dilihat dari pertumbuhan total aset yang dimiliki selama tahun 2012, pertumbuhan aset bpr syariah lebih unggul dibandingkan dengan pertumbuhan aset bpr konvensional, walaupun total aset yang dimiliki bpr syariah lebih sedikit dibandingkan bpr konvensional. rendahnya total aset yang dimiliki bpr syariah tidak terlepas dari masih tabel 5. total dan pertumbuhan aset bpr syariah dan bpr konvensional periode kuartal i 2012-kuartal ii 2013 uraian jenis usaha bpr 2012 2013 i ii iii iv i aset (triliun) bpr konvensional 2.768 2.938 3.079 3.263 3.338 bpr syariah 180 199 223 242 243 ∆ aset (%) bpr konvensional 1,58 6,14 4,80 5,98 2,30 bpr syariah 7,14 10,56 12,06 8,52 0,41 sumber: bank indonesia (diolah) jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 15, nomor 1, april 2014: 55-63 62 sedikitnya bpr syariah yang beroperasi di diy. di antara lima kabupaten dan kota hanya kabupaten bantul, sleman dan kota yogyakarta yang memiliki bpr syariah, di mana 3 bank beroperasi di bantul, 5 bank di sleman dan 3 bank di kota yogyakarta. artinya dengan pertumbuhan aset yang semakin meningkat di saat adanya keterbatasan-keterbatasan yang dimiliki, bpr syariah di diy sebenarnya memiliki prospek usaha yang besar untuk mengoptimalkan perannya sebagai lembaga perantara keuangan dan lembaga penentu pembangunan dengan keunggulan-keunggulan yang dimiliki dalam operasionalnya sesuai dengan prinsip islam melalui kemitraan antara bank dan nasabah. sedangkan untuk bpr konvensional walaupun total asetnya selalu meningkat tiap tahun, namun perlu adanya dorongan kinerja yang lebih baik lagi mengingat pertumbuhan aset yang dimiliki selama dua tahun terakhir mengalami fluktuasi. hal ini di karenakan karena posisi dan peran aset dari suatu bank sangat berpengaruh dan menentukan dalam kegiatan intermediasi dan operasional bank. simpulan berdasarkan hasil studi terhadap faktorfaktor yang berpengaruh terhadap kinerja keuangan bank perkreditan rakyat di diy periode juni 2009-april 2013, penulis dapat mengambil beberapa kesimpulan sebagai berikut: variabel loan to deposit ratio berpengaruh tidak signifikan terhadap kinerja keuangan (return on asset) bpr konvensional di diy. variabel non performing loan berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap kinerja keuangan bpr konensional di diy. tingginya rasio non performing loan atau kualitas kredit yang rendah akan berdampak pada tingginya cadangan penghapusan kredit sehingga dapat mengurangi rentabilitas bank.variabel capital adequacy ratio berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap kinerja keuangan bpr konvensional di diy. jika modal yang dimiliki bank semakin besar, maka akan berpengaruh terhadap besarnya pemenuhan aset bank yang nantinya akan semakin mudah untuk mengelolanya sehingga dapat meningkatkan laba. variabel biaya operasional atas pendapatan operasional (bopo) berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap kinerja keuangan bpr konvensional di diy. hubungan negatif antara rasio bopo dan rasio roa dapat terjadi karena ketidakefisienan bank dalam menjalankan usahanya akibat biaya operasional bank yang terlalu besar dan tidak dapat ditekan oleh pendapatan operasionalnya sehingga mengurangi rentabilitas dari kegiatan operasional bank itu sendiri. daftar pustaka akhtar et al. (tt) factors influencing the profitability islamic banks of pakistan. international research journal of finance and economics. vol. 66, nomor (tidak diterbitkan), bulan (tidak diterbitkan): 125-132. clorinda,k., (2013). analisis pengaruh capital, asset quality dan liquidity terhadap kinerja keuangan pada sektor perbankan yang terdaftar di bursa efek indonesia (bei). jurnal ilmiah mahasiswa universitas surabaya. vol ii, 1: 1-17. pandu, m., (2008). analisis pengaruh rasio car, bopo, npl, nim dan ldr terhadap kinerja keuangan perbankan. tesis. semarang: program studi magister manajemen pascasarjana universitas diponegoro. wisnu, m., (2004). analisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi kinerja keuangan bank umum di indonesia. tesis. semarang: program studi magister manajemen pasca sarjana universitas diponegoro. ongore, v.o., and kusa, g.b. (2013). determinants of financial performance of commercial banks in kenya. international jurnal of economics and financial issues. vol. iii, 1: 237-252. sabir, m, dkk., (2012). pengaruh rasio kesehatan bank terhadap kinerja keuangan bank umum syariah dan bank konvensional di indonesia. jurnal analisis. vol. i, 1, juni: 79-78. sukarno, k.w., dan syaichu, m. (2006). analisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi kinerja bank umum di indonesia. jurnal studi determinan kinerja keuangan ...(syamsul maryadi, agus tri basuki) 63 manajemen dan organisasi. vol iii, 2, juli: 46-58. sukmayanti, yuni. (2013). analisis perbandingan kinerja keuangan dengan menggunakan roa pada bpr syariah dan bpr konvensional di indonesia. jurnal universitas siliwangi: 1-14. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 2, oktober 2018, hlm. 178-185 doi: 10.18196/jesp.19.2.5009 the impacts of trade liberalization on poverty reduction in indonesia mufti alam adha1, faiza husnayeni nahar2, muhammad azizurrohman3 1 faculty of islamic studies, universitas ahmad dahlan, indonesia jl. kapas 9, semaki, umbulharjo, yogyakarta 55166 2 faculty of economics and business, universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta, indonesia jl. brawijaya, geblagan, tamantirto, kasihan, bantul, daerah istimewa yogyakarta 55183 3faculty of management, national chiayi university, taiwan no.300 syuefu rd., chiayi city 60004, taiwan correspondence e-mail: faizahusnayeni@umy.ac.id received: august 2018; accepted: october 2018 abstract: nowadays, trade liberalization is considered as development strategy policy to increase economic growth and reduce poverty in many countries, particularly in developing countries. it is reported that indonesia has been actively joining many trade agreements in order to ease the distribution of goods and services to other countries. hence, this study analyses the impact of trade liberalization on poverty reduction by using an ordinary least square (ols) method from 1984 to 2017. the trade openness ratio (tor) is used as a dependent variable in order to measure trade liberalization. other variables such as gdp, exchange rate and labor force are considered as control variables. the empirical result shows that tor and labor force have a positive impact on poverty, whereas gdp and exchange rate have a negative impact. this finding is different with previous researches, particularly where trade liberalization has been negatively affecting poverty. such a result is justifiable because indonesian firms are not ready to compete with foreign firms where high competitiveness exist. keywords: trade liberalization; indonesia; gdp; exchange rate; labor force jel classification: f10, f19, f47 introduction in this globalization era, trade liberalization compromises lots of benefits to many countries, especially for the developing ones. it is reported that the number of exported products, particularly in manufacturing goods, has increased rapidly over the last 30 years (levin and ohlin, 2008). most parts of asia and africa continents (cockburn, decaluwé, and robichaud, 2006) experience the gains of trade liberalization, including an increase on welfare society and reduction in poverty level (hayashikawa, 2009). ghana (bhasin and annim, 2005), philippines, nepal, india, pakistan (cockburn, decaluwe, and robichaud, 2008), and indonesia (kis-katos and sparrow, 2013) exemplify the countries that experience the benefit of trade liberalization in these recent decades. indonesia joined general agreement of tariff and trade (gatt) since 1950. it was the first agreement that indonesia was involved. then, it was followed by many other trade agreements among nations. by joining trade liberalization, indonesia changes the orientation of trade policy from inward looking to outward looking. even though indonesia believes that international trade will improve economic welfare, yet the government should be aware of the consequences of implementing this policy. hence, by increasing specialization goods by reducing transportation cost, indonesia can sustain their economic growth for a long-term period (levin and ohlin, 2008). openness to trade is an important element of economic policy to achieve the sustainability the impacts of trade liberalization … (mufti a. adha, faiza h. nahar, m. azizurrohman) 179 of economic growth and trade liberalization is the way to achieve it (mcculloch, winters, and cirera, 2001). by opening up the access to the global economies, such as reducing tariff and nontariff barrier on international trade, indonesia can develop more partnership or diplomatic relationship with many countries over the world. when indonesia can produce specialization products, it might increase the production efficiently which results on the increasing demands and firm will need to hire more labors. recruiting more labors will indirectly affect the household’s income. afterward, the economy will grow up faster and poverty alleviation can be undertaken. on the other hand, although trade liberalization gives positive multiplier effects on the economy, it might also harm particular party since it leaves some people behind in poverty (winters, mcculloch, and mckay, 2004). many unskilled workers cannot compete to the highskilled ones, the small firm will be in problem due to big firm’s higher power to export goods in larger scale (winters, 2000), local goods cannot compete against imported goods since overseas brands have better quality with lower price as well (harrison, 2007; eaton and grossman, 1986). this paper result is expected to uncover the impact of trade liberalization on poverty reduction. in addition, it will give a recommendation for policymakers to solve the consequences of implementing this trade liberalization policy. therefore, the indonesian government needs to evaluate the trade liberalization policy effectively and efficiently in order to pursue sustained economic growth and reducing poverty level (feridhanusetyawan and pangestu, 2003). various literature about trade liberalization and poverty has been pursued by many researchers in over the last two decades. according to cockburn, decaluwe, and robichaud (2008), trade liberalization might affect poverty through consumption and income effects. due to the declining transport cost (removal barrier tariff and non-tariff), firms can export specialization goods in large number to overseas and they need to hire more labors to reproduce more products efficiently. expanding business, increasing labor demand, and increasing income will indirectly reduce the number of unemployment. hence, many people can fulfill their basic needs and households can consume more goods at lower prices. in addition, since open trade allows export and import among nations a high surplus of goods will affect a price-reduction. this lower cost will give benefit to the country. in the end, combining income and consumption effect will reduce poverty. winters (2000) described the labor market theory to explain the relationship between international trade and poverty in developing countries. if open trade allows the country to export more labor-intensive goods and replace the local production of capital and skillintensive goods through import, it will increase the labor demand, especially the informal sector. if poverty is becoming the main target of some countries, hence, increasing the demand for labor will help to reduce in the long term. banerjee and newman (2004), as cited by topalova (2007), explained that heckscherohlin model predicts that gains to trade should flow to an abundant factor, which suggests that unskilled labors in developing countries might get benefit from globalization. however, according to the new theories, the effect of trade liberalization is constantly different to the standard economic theory which states that openness to trade might reduce the wage of unskilled labors even in a labor-abundant country. hence, the gap between the rich and the poor keeps widening. winters (2000) explained the impact of trade liberalization on poverty in african countries by using grass-roots perspective and interviews from secondary sources to identify the different ways how poor people in zimbabwe and zambia have been affected. openness and trade liberalization are important 180 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan vol. 19, no. 2, oktober 2018: 178-185 components of policy development since with that element, economic growth might increase due to high poverty reduction. trade liberalization increases the economic opportunities for consumers and producers and to raise earning for workers. however, it is impossible to pretend that trade liberalization never pushes anyone into poverty, nor even that liberalization cannot increase the depth of poverty in a certain condition. hence, it is important to manage liberalization by looking at the country’s condition in order to play a positive role regarding poverty reduction. this paper gives several suggestions. the first, unpredicted poverty possibly rises from market failure. in the case of zambia, many farmers found difficulties to plant their maize due to the lack of skill and lost of seeds. it cannot be denied that the poor cannot take all of the advantages of trade liberalization since they have less skill compared to labors in a big firm who are very well-skilled. the second, market segmentation seems to prevent the benefits of liberalization from optimally spreading. the third one is related to the uneven effect of liberalization on households. for example, there happens a high demand for clothing export in southeast asia while there is less demand for a manufacturing job in africa. considering this contrast, policymakers should prepare for the worst when they choose to implement trade liberalization. being capable to manage the consequences is very important after applying trade liberalization. furthermore, topalova (2007) shows the impact of trade liberalization on poverty and inequality using a case in indian district. since india represents one-third of the world’s poor population, this research really needs to be more analyzed. to determine whether there is a relationship between liberalization and changes in poverty and inequality, this paper uses variations in its timing, degree of liberalization across industries, and locations of industries in indian districts. the data for this paper were obtained from three sources, which are household survey data, indian national sample survey (nss), and various other households and individual characteristics. the surveys cover 75,000 rural and 45,000 urban households. besides, this paper examines whether poverty and inequality in those districts are related to the specific district’s trade policy shock. the paper found that trade liberalization increases the poverty rate and gap in the rural district which industries are more exposed to liberalization. it is interesting to note that the effect of trade liberalization did not affect india in general but only specific to areas with more or less exposure to liberalization. the fact that these effects were not evenly spread in one country becomes an issue in the implementation of trade liberalization. the evolution of tariff barrier could be the cause of this inequality problem. besides, the industries affected by tariff reduction would give slow progress in poverty reduction. so to say, the areas where trade liberalization is concentrated experiences slow poverty reduction. afterward, research from winters et al. (2004) explained the evidence of trade liberalization effect on poverty by reviewing previous literature. this paper found that trade liberalization can reduce poverty in the long run. however, the impact of trade liberalization on poverty depends on the environment in which it is carried out, such as the policies in those areas. the fact that the poor have less ability than the richer to protect themselves to take advantages of trade liberalization opportunities might become an issue that the government has to handle. in the end, even though trade liberalization may not be the most powerful act to reduce poverty, it is one of the easiest to change. by reducing the tariff and nontariff barrier, the more resources will be saved. hence, trade liberalization becomes one of the most cost-effective anti-poverty policies that are easy to do for government and it can become an important component of “pro-poor” attempts to improve the development strategy in alleviating poverty. the impacts of trade liberalization … (mufti a. adha, faiza h. nahar, m. azizurrohman) 181 in short, that literature review proposes some points in common. the majority of those study state that trade liberalization has a significant contribution, yet there is still an issue on its implementation. it is possible and understandable that different methods and different data set yield different outcomes such as that trade liberalization can reduce poverty in areas with more or less exposure to liberalization, but not in a country as a whole. research method this section aims to measure how much impact of remittance is on poverty. to answer the question, an empirical study is pursued by using time series data including poverty, trade openness ratio, exchange rate, and labor force participation in indonesia. the data of those variables were collected from the world bank and statistic indonesia, starting from 1984 to 2017. the total observation is 33 years. in this study, the econometric model to be estimated is as follows: pv = c α1 tori α2 exci α3 lf α4gdp+ε where pv is poverty, c is constant, tor is traded openness ratio; exc is exchange rate, lf is the labor participation rate, gdp is the income and ε is error term. trade openness ratio to measures the trade openness ratio, the indicator is defined as follows: trade ratio= (export + imports)/ gdp trade openness is expected to negatively affect poverty. if the amount of trade openness ratio is high, the level of poverty will be low. the connection between trade openness and poverty reduction is actually through economic growth. trade, both import and export, is vital to any successful modern economy since trade openness is the most important influence on economic growth (david, 2007). if trade openness is increased, economic growth will increase as well and the poverty level will decline due to household income increment. it means that this trade openness ratio variable is expected to have a negative sign (-) to poverty. thus, the higher the level of trade openness ratio, the lower the level of poverty will be. exchange rate the exchange rate is expected to negatively affect poverty. the exchange rate will change whenever the currency value is changing. when the currency is high, many consumers will be more willing to consume since their purchasing power is increasing, thus reducing poverty level. so, the exchange rate is expected to have a negative sign (-). the higher the level of exchange rate, the lower the level of poverty will be. labor force participation labor force participation is expected to negatively affect poverty. when trade liberalization is undertaken in a country, many big firms are able to expand their business by exporting their goods to other countries. many firms will hire more labors in order to fulfill the high demand for goods. even though the price of export is reduced because of the high demand, the profit they earn is greater than before. by hiring more labors, the amount of household income will increase, leading to a reduction in poverty as well. hence, this labor force participation variable is expected to have a negative sign (-) to poverty. the higher the level of labor force participation, the lower the level of poverty will be. gdp gdp might negatively influence poverty because the more gdp received by indonesia, the lower the number of poverty level achieved is. increase in gdp might influence poverty indirectly since high gdp is associated with the increasing income growth of the poor people (romer and gugerty, 1997). the household can 182 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan vol. 19, no. 2, oktober 2018: 178-185 fulfill their basic need and they can upgrade their preferences on consuming good as long as their income is increasing as well. hence, gdp variable is expected to have a negative sign (-) to poverty. the higher the level of gdp, the lower the level of poverty will be. all variables in this model are in percentage except labor force and gdp that need to be transformed into a log of trade openness ratio, labour force, gdp, and exchange rate are expected to have negative effects, the expected signs are negatives. the dependent variable is the poverty level while the independent variables are the trade openness ratio, exchange rate, labor force, and gdp. since the data is a time series, the stationary needs to be confirmed first. if all variables have been completely stationary, the ols method can be used afterward. under certain assumptions, the method of least squares has some very attractive statistical properties that have been made as one of the most powerful and popular methods in regression analysis (gujarati, 2004). result and discussion it is found that all variables are stationary and fulfill the criteria of classical assumption test as seen on table 1, 2, and 3. on the first table, it can be seen that the p-value of obs*rsquared is 0.0618 which is larger compared to the level of significance (0.05). it can be concluded that there is no autocorrelation problem. afterward, on the second table, it is proven that there is no heteroskedasticity problem, by considering that the level of significance is 0.01 (0.0106 >0.01). afterward, in table 3, it is found that there is no problem of multicollinearity. in this case, the multicollinearity test used vif test by scoring each auxiliary regression. if each variable is lesser than 10, it means that it passes the requirement of vif test. after preceding the regression, the ols result can be seen in table 4. the empirical result of this model shows that all variables are statistically significant to the level of significance. table 1. autocorrelation test for ols estat bgodfrey breusch-godfrey lm test for autocorrelation lags (p) chi2 df prob > chi2 1 3.488 1 0.0618 h0: no serial correlation source: author estimation (2018) table 2. heteroskedasticity test for ols breusch-pagan / cook-weisberg test for heteroskedasticity h0: constant variance variables: fitted values of poverty chi2(1) = 6.54 prob > chi2 = 0.0106 source: author estimation (2018) table 3. multicollinearity test for ols variable vif 1/vif lgdp d1. 9.54 0.104808 exchange d1. 8.86 0.112812 tor 2.40 0.416846 llabor d1. 1.67 0.599004 mean vif 5.62 source: author estimation (2018) tor has a positive sign and the estimation suggests that 1% change in trade openness ratio leads to an increase of poverty by 7.15%. afterward, according to the estimation, 1% change in the first difference of variables gdp, exch will reduce poverty by 0.467 and 0.006% respectively. meanwhile, 1% change in the first difference of lf will increase poverty by 1.93%. trade openness ratio is expected to have a negative sign, but it does not. this study found that trade openness ratio probably increases poverty in indonesia. the justification reason can be explained through some possible answers. the impacts of trade liberalization … (mufti a. adha, faiza h. nahar, m. azizurrohman) 183 table 4. estimation results of regression analysis (dependent variable is poverty level) * denotes significance at 1% level ** and *** indicate significant at 5% level and 10% level respectively r2=0.5744 =0.5136 f-stat=9.45; (p-value= 0.0001) source: author estimation (2018), data obtained from year 1984-2017 first, indonesian firms have not been ready yet to compete with overseas products. even though the barrier among nations such as taxreduction has been removed, the qualities between imported and local products are still significantly different. for more than decades, the number of imported product stores has increased gradually. it is reported that the total imported goods and services coming to indonesia was about 68 billion in 2000 and then increased rapidly to 200 billion $us in 2017. afterward, since indonesia welcomes trade openness, it might expose many foreign firms to compete with indonesian products which resulting in tight competition between imported and local products (goffa and singh, 2014). as local firms have limited capital, they tried an alternative way to reduce the cost by hiring more temporary labors. they even fire some of their workers to recover losses. hence, the increase in trade openness might lead to an increase in the number of informal sectors. the lesser income that household received will make them suffer more. they cannot fulfill their basic need which in the end, poverty alleviation cannot be undertaken. in addition, according to winters, mcculloch, and mckay (2004), trade openness might decline the welfare of some people, particularly the one who is limited in skills. the high competitiveness among firms, either the local or foreign ones, will definitely require them to hire labors which can help to produce goods and services on a larger scale. the one who does not have skills will lose to those with good skills. most of the firms need workers who are capable to use technology or at least having basic skills, such as able to use microsoft word and excel in the computer, able to speak english, and so forth. hence, increasing trade openness ratio might result in the increasing number of poor people in the long term. it is such a dilemma when indonesia needs to open their gate to join the global economy in order to increase their economic growth and reduce poverty, yet they experience a counter effect. poverty is not an easy problem for indonesia that can be solved in a short period. it even becomes the problem of worldwide. on the other hand, cockburn, decaluwe, and robichaud (2008) explained that trade liberalization has a positive impact on welfare and poverty although the number is small. it is reported that urban households will gain more in terms of welfare and poverty compared to the rural ones. many firms are established in the urban area, hence, the poor remain poor if they still live in a rural area. in addition, rural people are lacking in skill and knowledge compare to urban people. so in term of human capital, they are not capable enough to face the trade liberalization which is full of skilled people. variables coefficient t statistic prob. c 13.34749 3.69 0.001 tor 7.151135 1.97 0.059*** d (lngdp) -0.4670141 -3.39 0.002** d (exch) -0.006245 -3.52 0.001** d(lf) 1.938998 1.84 0.076*** 184 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan vol. 19, no. 2, oktober 2018: 178-185 the next variable is gdp. it is found that gdp has a negative sign which results on giving a good impact on poverty reduction. the higher gdp received by indonesia, the higher the number of poorer reduced in the future. an increase in gdp is related to the stable economic growth of indonesia (nahar, adha, and muhammad azizurrohman, 2018). snyder and chern (2008) stated that an increase in income leads the household to change their preferences and lifestyle. the more money they earn, the more economic status will be changed. at first, they can only fulfill the basic needs; afterward, they can use the money from the increased income for non-basic needs. exchange rate shows a negative sign, which means that every 1% change in exchange rate reduces poverty by 0.006%. according to nahar and arshad (2017), exchange rate indirectly reduces poverty. when the exchange rate increases, for instance, 1 us dollar is becoming idr 12,000 from idr 15,000; the import seller will get benefit by buying import product with lower price. even though the benefit of trade liberalization might happen to particular parties, it will still help the government to boost up the economic growth and poverty reduction. moreover, the labor force has a positive sign. the estimation suggests that every 1% change in labor force increases poverty by 1.9%. in researcher’s point of view, the possible reason is related to the previous explanation. when trade liberalization bridges more foreign firms, local firms have to compete with them. as the results, the local firms need to reduce some cost by laying off the workers. if the workers can be paid lower, the local firm will not have to lay them off. that kind of condition pushes them into the informal sector, which results on the increasing number of the poorer in indonesia. conclusion from this result, it is found that all variables are significant and influence the poverty level. even though the main variable, which is trade liberalization on trade openness ratio proxy, shows contradicting result from the initial hypothesis, the overall results still indicate that trade liberalization policy should be evaluated. if indonesia is 100% ready to face the globalization economy, the future results might be different. to be ready, the governments need to take several measures, such as training the workers in every region. the training should include basic standard skills, such as good at technology, decent manner, proficient in more than 3 languages, and so forth. the empirical result shows that tor and labour force have a positive impact on poverty, whereas gdp and exchange rate have a negative impact. this finding is different with previous researches, particularly where trade liberalization has been negatively affecting poverty. such a result is justifiable because indonesian firms are not ready to compete with foreign firms where high competitiveness exist. references bhasin, v.k, and annim, s. k. (2005). impact of elimination of trade taxes on poverty and income distribution in ghana. global development network. cockburn, j., decaluwé, b., and robichaud, v. (2006). trade liberalization and poverty: lessons from asia and africa. poverty and economic policy, micro impact of macro and adjustment policies (mimap) project, (april). cockburn, j., decaluwe, b., and robichaud, v. (2008). trade liberalization and poverty: a cge analysis of the 1990s experience in africa and asia. poverty and economic policy (pep) research network. david, h.l. (2007). a guide to measures of trade openness and policy. retrieved february 22, 2013. eaton, j. and grossman, g.m. (1986). optimal the impacts of trade liberalization … (mufti a. adha, faiza h. nahar, m. azizurrohman) 185 trade and industrial policy under oligopoly. the quarterly journal of economics, 101(2), 383-406. feridhanusetyawan, t., and pangestu, m. (2003). indonesian trade liberalization: estimating the gains. journal-bulletin of indonesian economic studies, 39(1), 1–33. goffa, m.l., and singh, r.j. (2014). does trade reduce poverty? a view from africa. journal of african trade, 1(1), 5–14. gujarati. (2004). based econometric, 4th ed. new york: mcgraw-hill companies. harrison, a. (2007). trade liberalization, poverty and inequality: evidence from indian districts. chicago: university of chicago press. available from https://www.nber.org/books/harr016. (accessed: 1st, august 2018). hayashikawa, m. (2009). trading out of poverty: how to aid for trade can help. oecd journal on development, 10(2), 1–38. kis-katos, k., and sparrow, r. (2013). poverty, labour markets and trade liberalization in indonesia. the institute for the study of labor discussion paper, 7645, 1–32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2015. 07.005 levin, j., and ohlin, m. (2008). trade policies and export growth: employment and poverty impact in tanzania. sida, swedish international development cooperation agency, oct 2008. mcculloch, n., winters, l.a., and cirera, x. (2001). trade liberalization and poverty: a handbook. centre for economic policy research. london, uk: dfid department for international development. nahar, f.h., adha, m.a., and azizurrohman, m. (2018). effects of remittances on economic growth in indonesia. in 9th international conference on socio-economic and environmental issues in development, 1, 11–20. nahar, f. h., and arshad, m.n.m. (2017). effects of remittances on poverty reduction: the case of indonesia. journal of indonesian economy and business, 32(3), 163–177. romer, m. and gugerty, m. (1997). do economic growth reduce poverty ? technical paper, 1–33. snyder, s., and chern, w.s. (2008). the impact of remittance income on rural households in china. journal of socioeconomics, 1(1), 38–57. topalova, p. (2007). 'trade liberalization, poverty and inequality: evidence from indian districts' in a harrison, (ed), globalization and poverty 1–46. chicago: university of chicago press. available from https://www.nber.org/chapters/c0110 .pdf. (accessed: 1st august 2018) winters, l.a. (2000). trade liberalisation and poverty. dfid, 1–42. winters, l.a., mcculloch, n., and mckay, a. (2004). trade liberalization and poverty: the evidence so far. journal of economic literature, 42(1), 72–115. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 1, april 2018, hlm. 11-20 doi: 10.18196/jesp.19.1.4111 efisiensi teknis badan usaha milik daerah (bumd) bidang jasa produksi provinsi jawa tengah maskun suwardi dan p. eko prasetyo fakultas ekonomi, universitas negeri semarang, indonesia, phone +62248508015 e-mail korespondensi: kunsuwardi08@gmail.com abstract: this research was aimed to analyze the level of technical efficiency and identify some factors that influence it and also solutions necessary to conduct to improve the efficiency of bumd o f production service field in central java province. the analysis method used a data envelopment analysis (dea) by a frontier analysis approach. the bumn analysis unit of production service field was in central java. variables used were input variables (capital deposited, total expenses and employee numbers) and output variables (income, profit before tax and dividend realization). data used was a secondary data of bumd of production service field periods 2011-2016. the research objects covered pd. cmjt, pt. spjt, pt. sphc, pdab tu and pt. prpp. the research results showed that out of five bumds of production service field in central java province, there were two inefficient bumds include pdab tu and pt. prpp. pdab tu was not efficient in 2012, 2013 and 2016, while pt. prpp was not efficient during 2011-2016. three out of five bumds namely pd. cmjt, pt. spjt and pt. sphc achieved efficiency of 100% during research period. the bumds inefficiency occurred due to combining unsuitable input variable magnitude so that needed to conduct adjustment of input factor magnitude in yielding output efficiently 100%. it could be concluded that there is a trend of efficiency in bumd of production service field every year and there are two inefficient bumds. the bumd inefficiency was caused by combining disproportional input factor magnitude. it was suggested the two inefficient bumds should adjust input factor value magnitude in achieving output efficiently 100% key words: efficiency, dea, bumd, production service jel classification: l52, c52, d23, d24 pendahuluan menurut undang–undang no.23 tahun 2014, bumd adalah badan usaha yang sebagian besar atau seluruh modalnya dimiliki oleh pemerintah daerah. melalui bumd, pemerintah daerah dapat memaksimalkan peran dalam hal pembangunan ekonomi daerah. dasar hukum munculnya bumd adalah undang–undang no. 5 tahun 1962 tentang perusahaan daerah dan undang-undang no. 5 tahun 1974, tentang pokok– pokok pemerintah di daerah. undang–undang no. 23 tahun 2014, pasal 331 ayat empat, menjelaskan tujuan dari pendirian badan usaha milik daerah antara lain; (1) memberikan manfaat perkembangan ekonomi untuk daerah (2) menyelenggarakan kemanfaatan umum, berupa penyediaan barang dan/atau jasa yang bermutu untuk memenuhi kebutuhan hajat hidup masyarakat sesuai karakteristik, potensi daerah dengan tata kelola penyelenggaraan perusahaan yang baik (3) memperoleh laba dan/atau keuntungan. secara umum, bumd di indonesia dibedakan berdasarkan kategori bidang usaha. terdapat 15 kategori bidang usaha, mulai dari usaha pertanian, penggalian tambang, hiburan, penyedia jasa ilmiah, keuangan dan jasa hiburan, rekreasi. data bps tahun 2014 menunjukan ada 777 bumd di indonesia, yang terdiri atas 115 perusahaan milik pemerintah provinsi dan 662 perusahaan milik 12 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 1, april 2018: 11-20 pemerintah kabupaten/kota. data perkembangan jumlah bumd berdasarkan kepemilikan saham tahun 2011-2014 di indonesia sebagai berikut. tabel 1. jumlah bumd menurut kepemilikan saham tahun 2011-2014 pemilikan saham 2011 2012 2013 2014 provinsi 100 106 116 115 kabupaten / kota 623 602 631 662 jumlah 723 708 747 777 sumber: bps, statistik keuangan 2014 berdasarkan besaran aset, equitas dan laba pada tahun 2014, bumd di indonesia membukukan laba sebesar rp9,8 triliun, asset sebesar rp662 triliun dan equitas sebesar rp206 triliun. bidang usaha keuangan memperoleh tingkat laba tertinggi dengan capaian rp7,9 triliun atau 81% mendominasi total laba bumd pada tahun 2014. secara umum, tingkat aset dan equitas bidang usaha keuangan masih yang tertinggi, yakni dengan total kepemilikan aset rp605 triliun atau 91% kontribusi pada total aset bumd serta tingkat equitas sebesar rp175 triliun. bumd di kategori real estate memiliki total aset, ekuitas, dan laba bersih. pemerintah provinsi jawa tengah tercatat memiliki delapan bumd. terdiri dari bumd bidang keuangan (pd.bpr bkk, pd bkk, pt.bank jateng, pt. jamkrida jateng), dan bumd bidang jasa produksi (pd.cmjt, pdab tirta utama, pt.prpp, pt.spjt, pt.sphc). dasar hukum pendirian bumd provinsi jawa tengah diatur dalam peraturan daerah dan peraturan gubernur. kepemilikan modal pemerintah provinsi pada setiap bumd berada pada kisaran 45%-100% dengan penyertoran modal berkala pada setiap tahunnya. menurut akbar (2012), kinerja merupakaan salah satu indikator efisiensi suatu perusahaan. kinerja efisiensi bumd menjadi sebuah ukuran hasil yang dijadikan salah satu pedoman pemerintah daerah dalam menilai tingkat keberhasilan sebuah bumd. hasil kinerja bumd, layaknya sebuah perusahaan yang semuanya merupakan hasil perpaduan berbagai faktor kerja perusahaan, baik secara internal maupun eksternal yang saling mempengaruhi. menurut ghiselli & brown dalam setio budi (2010), istilah efisiensi dimaknai, menunjukkan adanya perbandingan antara keluaran (output) dengan masukan (input). kemampuan menghasilkan output secara maksimal dengan input yang ada, menjadi salah satu hasil kinerja yang baik. urgensinya adalah bahwa efisiensi merupakan ukuran yang menunjukkan bagaimana sebaiknya sumber-sumber daya ekonomi dialokasikan dalam proses produksi untuk menghasilkan output maksimal. menurut aldelaimi dan al-ani (2006), efisiensi dalam hal ini efisiensi teknis, memiliki arti bahwa adanya kegiatan pemindahan input yang berbentuk fisik seperti tenaga kerja dan modal menjadi hasil (output) pada tingkat kinerja terbaik, ketika tidak terdapat input yang terbuang dalam kegiatan produksi sejumlah output. pada efisiensi bumd dapat diartikan bahwa ketika bumd dapat menghasilkan sebuah output yang maksimal dengan input yang dimiliki, maka bumd dapat dinyatakan memiliki nilai efisiensi yang baik (deskriptif bumd dan pid provinsi jawa tengah 2016). berdasarkan tabel-2 dilihat dari asset, pendapatan dan deviden, bumd bidang keuangan masih mendominasi kontribusi terhadap total bumd di jawa tengah yakni antara 45%-98%. sementara bumd bidang jasa produksi hanya memberikan kontribusi terhadap total asset, pendapatan dan deviden pada kisaran 3%-4,5%. hal ini tentu menjadi permasalahan serius bagi efisiensi teknis badan usaha milik daerah… (maskun suwardi, eko prasetyo) 13 pengelolaan bumd di jawa tengah, mengingat bahwa andil bumd bidang jasa produksi dalam kontribusinya terhadap pad juga masih relatif kecil. keberadaan bumd bidang jasa produksi diharapkan terus memiliki andil besar pada perekonomian jawa tengah. sesuai dengan komitmen pemerintah provinsi jawa tengah melalui modal yang telah disetorkan. berdasarkan tabel-2, perbandingan total asset bumd bidang keuangan dengan bumd bidang jasa produksi terlampau sangat tinggi (perbandingan 37:1) untuk tingkat pendapatan antara bidang keuangan dan jasa produksi memiliki (perbandingan 30:1). fenomena ini, sejalan dengan kontribusi masing-masing bumd terhadap pad melalui besaran deviden yang diberikan. sumbangan deviden bumd bidang jasa produksi dari tahun 2014–2016 tidak lebih dari 5% dari total deviden bumd provinsi jawa tengah. pentingnya dilakukan riset ini adalah bahwa ketimpangan hasil kinerja pada bumd bidang keuangan dan bidang jasa produksi tentunya tidak bisa dibiarkan bigitu saja, sehingga modal pemerintah yang telah disetorkan tetap mendapatkan pengembalian keuntungan yang sesuai. dibutuhkan analisis yang mendasar mengenai permasalahan yang terjadi pada bumd bidang jasa produksi, sehingga mampu meningkatkan kontribusi bumd dan bersaing dengan bumd bidang keuangan dan bums. walaupun secara bisnis bumd memiliki karakteristik yang berbeda dengan bums. bumd bidang jasa produksi memliki peranan yang sama penting dengan bumd bidang keuangan. bumd bidang usaha jasa produksi meliputi; usaha dagang, penggalian, edukasi dan rekreasi memiliki cakupan yang cukup luas untuk memenuhi permintaan pasar dan turut andil membangun perekonomian di jawa tengah. kondisi kinerja keuangan yang masih relatif kecil menjadikan bumd bidang jasa produksi yang cenderung tidak profitable. (analisis kinerja bumd jawa tengah, deskriptif bumd jawa tengah, 2014). salah satunya dapat dilihat melalui return of investment yang rata–rata hanya berkisar antara 18%-45%, sementara roi bumd bidang keuangan mencapai 97%-170% (data deskriptif pid, bumd 2016). adapun kinerja keuangan bumd bidang jasa produksi dapat di lihat pada tabel 2. tabel 2. bumd bidang keuangan, dan jasa produksi tahun 2014–2016 (juta rupiah) bidang keuangan keterangan des 2014 des 2015 juni 2016 asset 43.163.323 50.051.654 59.604.447 pendapatan 7.739.555 8.044.616 3.516.881 deviden 262.990 293.786 307.316 bidang jasa produksi asset 1.388.123 1.729.337 1.657.322 pendapatan 1.388.123 484.116 117.964 deviden 23.013 19.523 24.386 sumber: data deskriptif bumd biro perekonomian setda provinsi jawa tengah tahun 2011-2016 sebagai sebuah badan usaha, maka bumd tentunya melakukan proses produksi sebagai salah satu aktifitas utamanya. produksi adalah segala kegiatan yang bertujuan untuk meningkatkan atau menambah guna atas suatu benda, atau segala kegiatan yang ditujukan untuk memuaskan orang lain melalui pertukaran. dalam teori ekonomi, efisiensi dalam produksi merupakan syarat penting untuk meningkatkan produktivitas dan daya saing usaha. melihat urgensi keberadaan bumd bidang jasa produksi provinsi jawa tengah dalam membangun perekonomian daerah, maka perlu adanya analisis mendalam menganai tingkat efisiensi pada masing–masing bumd. dalam artikel ini akan dianalisis tingkat efisiensi pada bumd bidang jasa produksi yang 14 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 1, april 2018: 11-20 didasarkan pada pendekatan efisiensi relatif secara teknis dan mengidentifikasi beberapa faktor yang mempengaruhi serta solusinya. pengertian prinsip efisiensi yang dimaksud dalam artikel ini cederung lebih mengacu kepada uu no. 23 tahun 2014. prinsip efisiensi dalam ketentuan uu no. 23 tahun 2014 ini adalah penyelenggara suatu urusan pemerintahan ditentukan berdasarkan perbandingan tingkat daya guna yang paling tinggi yang dapat diperoleh. sedangkan, asas efisiensi adalah asas yang berorientasi pada minimalisasi penggunaan sumber daya dalam penyelenggaraan negara untuk mencapai hasil kerja yang terbaik. metode penelitian berdasarkan jenis data yang diperoleh, penelitian ini merupakan jenis penelitian kuantitatif. jenis data yang digunakan pada penelitian ini adalah data sekunder. data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini berupa data keuangan umum bumd bidang jasa produksi provinsi jawa tengah yang didapat langsung melalui dokumentasi pengumpulan data pada biro perekonomian sekretariat daerah provinsi jawa tengah, bagian pengembangan investasi daerah dan bumd. metode pengumpulan data yang digunakan adalah studi pustaka. subjek penelitian ini adalah badan usaha milik daerah (bumd) bidang jasa produksi provinsi jawa tengah. pada saat ini terdapat lima perusahaan daerah yang termasuk dalam bumd bidang jasa produksi. adapun lima perusahaan daerah tersebut adalah; pd.cmjt, pt.spjt, pt.sphc, pt.prpp dan pd.abtu. identifikasi variabel input-output yang digunakan dalam pengukuran tingkat efisiensi merupakan langkah pertama dan terpenting (purwantoro, dalam prasetyo, 2010). adapun variabel input dan output yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah: a. jumlah tenaga kerja ( i1 ) b. modal disetor pemerintah ( i2 ) c. biaya total bumd ( i3 ) d. pendapatan ( o1 ) e. laba sebelum pajak ( o2 ) f. realisasi deviden ( o3 ) pengukuran tingkat efisiensi bumd bidang jasa produksi pada penelitian ini digunakan alat bantu analsisi data envelopment analysis (dea) dengan acuan dasar variabel input dan output, yang dianalisis dengan bantuan aplikasi banxia frontier analysis (bfa). metode dea adalah metode nonparametrik yang berbasis pada programasi linier. dea mengukur rasio efisiensi relatif unit kegiatan ekonomi (uke) sebagai rasio output tertimbang dengan input tertimbang. secara konsep, dea menjelaskan tentang langkah yang dirancang untuk mengukur efisiensi relatif suatu unit ekonomi tertentu dengan beberapa unit ekonomi yang lain dalam satu pengamatan, dan digunakan jenis input dan output yang sama. penerapan metode dea diasumsikan sudah relevan dan respresentatif untuk menganalisis pokok masalah efisiensi bumd yang dimaksud dalam riset ini. dalam model dea menunjukkan unit ekonomi yang memiliki efisiensi sempurna dengan nilai 100% dan yang kurang efisien atau tidak efisien dengan nilai <100%. di samping itu, terdapat angka multiplier yang digunakan sebagai dasar perbaikan manajerial. formulasi digunakan model dea dalam riset ini, misalnya dilakukan perbandingan efisiensi dari sejumlah uke, pada penelitian ini uke adalah asset bumd yang mengahasilkan; pendapatan, laba dan realisasi deviden. setiap uke menghasilkan m jenis input untuk menghasilkan s jenis output. misalnya xij > 0 merupakan jumlah input i yang digunakan oleh uke j, dan misalnya yij > 0 merupakan jumlah output r yang dihasilkan oleh uke j. ∑ ∑ efisiensi teknis badan usaha milik daerah… (maskun suwardi, eko prasetyo) 15 zk = efisiensi teknis bumd bidang jasa produksi yang dimaksud. kriteria universalitas mensyaratkan unit kegiatan ekonomi k untuk memiliki bobot dengan batasan atau kendala bahwa tidak ada satu unit kegiatan ekonomi lain yang akan memiliki efisiensi lebih besar 1 atau 100 persen, jika unit kegiatan ekonomi lain tersebut digunakan bobot yang dipilih oleh unit kegiatan ekonomi k sehingga formulasi sebagai berikut: di mana n, merupakan jumlah populasi dari objek penelitian ini yang berjumlah lima perusahaan daerah yang masuk dalam bumd bidang jasa produksi. pertidaksamaan pertama meunjukkan adanya efisiensi untuk uke lain tidak lebih dari 1, sementara persamaan kedua berbobot positif. angka rasio akan bervariasi antara 0 sampai dengan 1. objek penelitian dinyatakan efisien jika memiliki angka rasio mencapai 100 persen, sebaliknya jika mendekati 0 menunjukan tingkat efisiensi objek yang semakin rendah. ada beberapa bagian program linear yang dapat ditransformasikan ke dalam program ordinary linear untuk menurunkan model dea dalam riset ini digunakan pendekatan crs (constan return ti scale) sebagai berikut. misalnya pendekatan crs ini digunakan untuk mengukur tingkat efisiensi teknis pada bumd yang menjadi sampel, diantaranya dengan memaksimumkan sampel. adapun fungsi kendala atau batasan sebagai berikut. di mana: yrk = jumlah output pendapatan, laba sebelum pajak dan realisasi deviden yang dihasilkan oleh uke. xik = jumlah input modal, biaya dan jumlah tenaga kerja yang dibutuhkan uke. s = jumlah uke yang dianalisis m = jumlah input yang digunakan vik = bobot tertimbang dari output (pendapatan, laba sebelum pajak, realisasi deviden) zik = nilai dari maksimisasi sebagai indikator tingkat efisiensi sample penelitian. skala efisiensi tiap uke dapat diperoleh dari perhitungan crs dan vrs (varian retirn to scale). misalnya pada uke, perhitungan skala efisiensinya dihitung dari nilai efisiensi teknis model crs dibagi dengan nilai efisiensi teknis model vrs. jika terdapat perbedaan nilai efisiensi teknis model crs dan vrs dari sebuah uke, maka hal ini mengindikasikan adanya skala yang tidak efisien. sebuah uke yang efisien berada dalam model vrs mengindikasikan mencapai efisiensi teknis secara murni. apabila uke berada dalam model crs, maka telah mencapai efisiensi teknis dan lebih efisien dalam skala operasinya, rumusnya adalah sebagai berikut: e = crs/ vrs se = skala efisiensi crs = nilai efisiensi teknis model crs vrs = nilai efisiensi teknis model vrs di mana 0 ≤ se ≤ 1, crs ≤ vrs, nilai se adalah satu yang dapat mengindikasikan uke beroperasi pada crs. nilai se < 1 mengindikasikan adanya skala operasi yang tidak efisien. jika nilai ni (non increasing) lebih kecil dari vrs (ni < vrs), maka uke beroperasi pada irs (increasing returns to scale), dan jika nilai ni sama dengan vrs (ni = vrs) maka uke beroperasi pasa drs (decreasing return to scale). nilai ni merupakan perluasan dari rumor dea di mana nilai urk, vik menjadi kurang dari 1. 16 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 1, april 2018: 11-20 hasil dan pembahasan efisiensi badan usaha milik daerah (bumd) bidang jasa produksi, merupakan salah satu indikator dalam mengukur capaian kinerja bumd bidang jasa produksi yang dimiliki oleh pemerintah provinsi jawa tengah. kinerja bumd bidang jasa produksi dinyatakan efisien apabila angka rasio efisiensi faktor input dan output sama dengan 1 atau (100%), sementara jika nilai efisiensi mendekati 0 dan atau kurang dari 1 (e <1 atau e < 100%), maka dapat diartikan bumd bidang jasa produksi tersebut tidak efisien. tabel 3. hasil riset efisiensi teknis bumd bidang jasa produksi 2011–2016 bumd tingkat efisiensi 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 pd. cmjt 1 1 1 1 1 1 pt. spjt 1 1 1 1 1 1 pt. sphc 1 1 1 1 pd. abtu 1 0,9178 0,7391 1 1 0,5209 pt. prpp 0,6884 0,6871 0,8483 0,6921 0,3319 0,4794 sumber: hasil penelitian, 2017 berdasarkan hasil peneltian pada tabel 3, terdapat 5 bumd bidang jasa produksi yang diamati pada periode riset tahun 2011-2016. pada table 3, ada tiga bumd bidang jasa produksi yang selalu mencapai efisiensi teknis sama dengan 1 atau 100%, dan ada dua bumd yang belum efisien. bumd yang sudah efisiensi tersebut diantaranya; pd.cmjt, pt.spjt, dan pt.sphc. sedangkan, dua bumd yang mengalami inefisiensi atau belum mampu mencapai efisiensi 100% adalah pd.abtu dan pt.prpp. pd abtu mengalami inefisiensi pada tahun 2012, 2013 dan 2016. nilai efisiensi pd.abtu terus menurun atau semakin tidak efisien yakni; mulai tahun 2012 sebesar 0,9178, tahun 2013 (0,7391) dan tahun 2016 (0,5209). bumd ke dua yang mengalami inefisiensi adalah pt.prpp. inefisiensi pt.prpp mulai terjadi selama periode riset yakni sejak dari tahun 2011–2016. hasil riset ini sejalan dengan riset sebelumnya yang dilakukan oleh indrawati (2009) dengan digunakan periode data 2006-2008, hasil riset tersebut menunjukkan bahwa bumd bidang jasa produksi di daerah kabupaten karanganyar sebagai bagian dari propinsi jawa tengah juga tidak efisien. hasil riset dalam penelitian ini selama periode 2011-2016, menunjukkan hasil yang terusmenerus mengalami inefisiensi yang semakin buruk, dengan nilai capaian tingkat efisiensi terendah sebesar 0,3319 arau kurang dari 0,50 yang berarti dapat dinyatakan sangat tidak efisien dalam menjalankan usahanya. fenomena semakin tidak efisiennya bumd bidang jasa produksi pt.prpp ini jika terus dibiarkan jelas akan sangat merugikan masyarakat daerah di jawa tengah khususnya warga masyarakat kota semarang. karena fungsi pt.prpp yang bidang usahanya sebagai penyedia jasa wisata edukasi, rekreasi dan pengiklanan tidak dapat dimanfaatkan secara maksimal oleh warga masyarakat. oleh karena itu, untuk bumd bidang produksi jasa yang belum mencapai efisiensi teknis 100% khususnya pd.abtu dan pt. prpp disarankan untuk terusmenerus melakukan penyesuain kombinasi besaran nilai alokasi faktor input dalam rangka menghasilkan faktor input secara efisien. ada beberapa cara yang harus dilakukan yakni; mengoptimalkan ouput atau dengan cara meminimkan alokasi penggunaan input. efisiensi teknis badan usaha milik daerah… (maskun suwardi, eko prasetyo) 17 sesuai dengan tabel 4, secara umum dapat dinyatakan bahwa tingkat efisiensi bumd bidang jasa produksi di propinsi jawa tengah adalah cukup baik, di mana selama periode riset 20112016 secara rerata ada sebesar 67,50% (3 dari 5) bumd yang efisien dan ada sebesar 32,50% (2 dari 5) bumd yang tidak efisien pada periode yang sama. sedangkan, tingkat rata-rata efisiensi dari lima bumd secara umum masih lebih baik yakni sebesar 88,50% selama periode penelitian 2011-2016. tabel 4. tingakt rata–rata efisiensi bumd bidang jasa produksi secara umum keterangan 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 jumlah bumd yang efisien 3 2 3 4 4 3 jumlah bumd yang tidak efisien 1 2 2 1 1 2 % bumd yang efisien 75% 50% 60% 80% 80% 60% % bumd yang tidak efisien 25% 50% 40% 20% 20% 40% bumd efisien pd.cmjt pt.spjt pd.abtu pd.cmjt pt.spjt pd.cmjt pt.spjt pt.sphc pd.cmjt pt.spjt pt.sphc pd.abtu pd.cmjt pt.spjt pt.sphc pd.abtu pd.cmjt pt.spjt pt.sphc bumd tidak efisien pt.prpp pt.prpp pd.abtu pt.prpp pd.abtu pt.prpp pt.prpp pt.prpp pd.abtu rata – rata 92% 90% 91% 93% 86% 79% sumber: hasil penelitian, 2017 berdasarkan tabel-4, tingkat efisiensi bumd bidang jasa produksi pemerintah provinsi jawa tengah tertinggi dapat dicapai pada tahun 2014. pada tahun 2014 ada 80% bumd yang efisien dan 20% bumd saja yang tidak efisien, serta secara rerata tingkat efisiensi bumd dapat mencapai sebesar 93%. dengan kata lain, pada tahun 2014 ada empat bumd yang efisien dan hanya satu jenis bumd saja yang tidak efisien yakni pt.prpp. sementara itu, tingkat inefisiensi tertinggi terjadi pada tahun 2012, yakni tingkat inefisiensi mencapai 50%. fenomena yang menarik dan perlu diperhatikan selama periode riset 2011-2016 dan khususnya pada periode 20142016 adalah adanya kecederungan bumd di propinsi jawa tengah yang semakin tidak efisien. berdasarkan metode analisis dengan teknik dea, maka bagi bumd yang belum efisien harus melakukan penyesuaian dalam alokasi penggunaan input faktor produksi. dalam penelitian ini untuk bumd yang tidak efisien disarankan bahwa pelaku industri harus mengurangi biaya produksi yang dinilai mengganggu untuk meningkatkan capaian kinerja. hasil riset menegaskan bahwa beberapa bumd bidang jasa produksi harus mengurangi besaran total biaya bumd, agar mampu mencapai kombinasi input yang proporsional dan meningkatkan nilai efisiensi bumd. perlunya dilakukan kombinasi teknis input secara proporsional pada bumd bidang jasa produksi, sejalan dengan teori ekonomi produksi yang digambarkan melalui kurva isoquant atau kurva isoproduct. dasar teori ekonomi produski tersebut menjelaskan bahwa kurva isoquant menunjukan berbagai kemungkinan kombinasi teknis antara dua input (varia18 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 1, april 2018: 11-20 bel) yang terbuka bagi produsen untuk menghasilkan tingkat output tertentu. penyesuaian faktor input lain diantaranya adalah faktor input tenaga kerja. hasil riset ini menunjukkan bahwa ada beberapa bumd bidang jasa produksi yang mengalami inefisiensi, salah satu diantaranya adalah adanya penggunaan kombinasi besaran jumlah tenaga kerja sebagai faktor input yang kurang tepat. hasil riset ini mendukung riset yang dilakukan oleh akbar dan isa (2012), dalam penelitiannya yang berjudu “pengukuran efisiensi bumd, studi empirik: pdam eks karesidenan surakarta”, menjelaskan bahwa penentuan jumlah kombinasi tenaga kerja memberi dampak pada capaian tingkat efisiensi pdam di eks karesidenan surakarta. hal ini sejalan dengan teori the law of diminishing return. sebagai salah satu contoh solusi mengatasi inefisiensi bumd pt.prpp di tahun 2016 dapat dilihat hasilnya seperti pada tabel-5. tabel 5. inefisiensi bumd pada pt.prpp tahun 2016 sumber: hasil riset, 2017 berdasarkan tabel-5, pada tahun 2016 jenis bumd pada pt.prpp mencapai nilai efisiensi yang sangat rendah di bawah 100%, atau dapat dinyatakan inefisiensi. capain tingkat efisiensi bumd pada pt.prpp hanya sebesar 0,3522 (35,22%) atau masih kurang sebesar -0,6478 (64,78%), untuk dapat mencapai nilai efisiensi 1 atau 100%. dengan demikan dapat diartikan bahwa jenis bumd pada pt. prpp di tahun 2016 tidak mampu menjalankan usaha secara efisien. dengan kata lain, telah terdapat pengkombinasian besaran nilai faktor input yang kurang sesuai, (tidak optimal), sehingga diperoleh output yang tidak maksimal atau target output tidak dapat tercapai. berdasarkan hasil riset pada tabel 5 dapat dilihat bahwa hasil analisis efisiensi teknis dengan pendekatan model dea, maka dapat diketahui faktor yang menyebabkan inefisiensi bumd pada pt.prpp di tahun 2016 sebagai berikut: a) nilai aktual faktor input total biaya yang lebih besar dari target (aktual total biaya ≥ target total biaya) sebesar 64,78% b) nilai aktual faktor input modal disetor lebih besar dari nilai target modal disetor (aktual modal disetor ≥ target modal disetor) sebesar 64.78% c) nilai aktual jumlah tenaga kerja lebih besar dari nilai target jumlah tenaga kerja (aktual jumlah tenaga kerja ≥ target jumlah tenaga kerja) sebesar 64.78% d) nilai aktual laba sebelum pajak kurang dari target laba sebelum pajak (aktual laba sebelum pajak ≤ target laba sebelum pajak) sebesar -555.92% pt. prpp nilai efisiensi 0,3522 potential improvement variabel input/ output aktual target total biaya 8091.00 2849.52 -64.78% modal disetor 29520.00 10396.48 -64.78% jumlah tenaga kerja 45.00 15.85 -64.78% variabel input/ output aktual target potential improvement pendapatan 8704.00 8704.00 00.00% laba sebelum pajak 613.00 4020.81 555.92% realisasi deviden 10.00 2536.80 25268.04% efisiensi teknis badan usaha milik daerah… (maskun suwardi, eko prasetyo) 19 e) nilai aktual realisasi deviden kurang dari nilai target realisasi deviden (aktual realisasi deviden ≤ nilai target realisasi deviden) sebesar -25268.04%. sesuai dengan tabel-5, maka dapat diketahui bahwa faktor penyebab terjadinya inefisiensi pt.prpp pada tahun 2016 adalah besaran nilai faktor input dan output yang tidak sesuai antara nilai aktual dan nilai target. sesuai dengan hasil analisis dengan teknik dea, maka solusi yang harus dilakukan agar supaya bumd jenis pt.prpp mampu mencapai nilai efisiensi teknik sama dengan 1 atau 100% pada tahun 2016 harus dapat dilakukan beberapa hal berikut: a) total biaya pt.prpp tahun 2016 disarankan untuk diturunkan sebesar -64.78% atau sebesar 5241,4,8 (juta rupiah), dari total biaya semula 8091 (juta rupiah) menjadi 2849,44 (juta rupiah). b) total modal yang disetorkan pemerintah daerah provinsi jawa tengah kepada pt.prpp pada tahun 2016, disarankan dikurangi atau diturunkan sebesar 64.78% atau sebesar 19123,52 (juta rupiah). besaran modal disetor yang semula 29520 (juta rupiah) menjadi 10396.48 (juta rupiah). c) jumlah tenaga kerja pt.prpp tahun 2016 sebanyak 45 orang adalah tidak optimal, disarankan untuk dapat ditingkatkan kapasitasnya atau tingkatkan produktivitasnya, jika tidak maka terpaksa harus dikurangi (phk) sebanyak 64.81% atau dikurangi sebanyak 29 orang. jumlah tenaga kerja semula 45 orang menjadi 16 orang. d) besaran laba sebelum pajak pada tahun 2016 hanya sebesar 613 (juta rupiah), maka disarankan untuk dapat dinaikan sebesar 555.92% atau sebesar 3407.81 (juta rupiah). dengan demikian, besaran laba sebelumnya 613 (juta rupiah) akan menjadi sebesar 4020.81 (juta rupiah). e) realisasi deviden yang didapatkan oleh pt.prpp pada tahun 2016 juga sangat kecil dan jauh dari target, sehingga harus dapat ditingkatkan sebesar 25268.04% atau ditingkatkan sebesar 2526.80 (juta rupiah). artinya, besaran realisasi deviden pada 2016 yang semula hanya sebesar 10 juta rupiah harus menjadi 2536.80 juta rupiah. simpulan secara umum bumd bidang jasa produksi di propinsi jawa tengah selama periode riset 2011-2016, masih dapat dinyatakan efisien dengan tingkat rata-rata efisiensi teknis sebesar 88,50%, dan capaian rerata tingkat efisiensi teknis tertinggi terjadi pada tahun 2014 yakni mencapai 93% atau hanya 1 jenis bumd saja yang tidak efisien. selama periode riset tersebut terdapat 3 jenis dari 5 bumd yang mampu mencapai tingkat efisien 100%, dan ada 2 jenis bumd yang tidak mampu mencapai efisien 100%. sedangkan, selama 6 tahun periode riset tersebut ada satu jenis bumd yakni pt. prpp yang tidak pernah mampu melakukan efisiensi teknis. selain itu, hal yang harus diperhatikan dan diwaspadai adalah adanya kencenderungan tingkat efisiensi yang semakin menrurun selama periode riset tersebut khususnya pada periode akhir riset tahun 20142016. tingkat inefisiensi terendah kurang dari 50% terjadi pada bumd jenis pt.prpp yakni hanya mencapai 33,19% di tahun 2015 dan 35,22% pada tahun 2016. dengan demikian, tingkat inefisiensi pt.prpp pada tahun 2015–2016 tersebuit dapat dinyatakan sangat tidak efisien dalam menjalankan bidang usahanya. faktor penyebab inefisiensi bumd bidang jasa produksi terjadi karena adanya kombinasi besaran faktor input (modal disetor, biaya total dan jumlah tenaga kerja) yang belum optimal (belum sesui) dalam upaya menghasilkan tingkat output tertentu yang maksimal. solusi untuk 20 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 1, april 2018: 11-20 meningkatkan tingkat efisiensi bumd bidang jasa produksi yang belum mancapai 100%, adalah harus dilakukan penyesuai besaran nilai input dengan besaran nilai output, sehingga mampu mencapai nilai efisiensi 100%. dengan kata lain, dapat dengan mengurangi besaran kombinasi nilai input (modal disetor, biaya total dan jumlah tenaga kerja) atau menambah besaran kombinasi nilai output (pendapatan, laba sebelum pajak dan realisasi deviden) sesuai dengan potensial improvement pada masing -masing faktor input dan output bumd yang belum mencapai efisiensi 100% tersebut, yakni pd.abtu dan pt.prpp. daftar pustaka akbar dan isa. (2012). pengukuran efisiensi bumd: studi empirik pdam di ekskarisidenan surakarta. benefit jurnal management dan bisnis, vol. 16. no. 1. hal: 6978. juni 2012 surakarta: universitas muhamadiyah surakarta. alviya. (2011). efisiensi dan produktifitas industri kayu olahan indonesia periode 2004– 2007, dengan pendekatan non parametrik data envelopment analysis. jurnal penelitian sosial dan ekonomi kehutanan. vol. 8. no. 2. hal. 122-138. bogor: institut pertanian bogor. al-delami, khalid-shahooth, dkk. (2006). using data envelopment analysis to measure cost efisiency with an aplication on islamic bank. scientific journal of administrative development. vol. 41. ederer, nikolaus. (2015). evaluating capital and operating cost efficiency of offshore wind farms. elsevier. vol. 42. austria: vienna university tecnology. guerrini and giulia. (2011). measuring and comparing the efficiency of water utility companies a data envelopment analysis. elsavier. vol. 19. hal. 202-209 italy: university of pisa. indratwati. (2009). efisiensi teknis bumd, dengan metode dea (data envelopment aanalysis) (studi pd.bkk karanganyar 2006–2008). skripsi fakultas ekonomi universitas sebelas maret. johnes, dkk. (2011). cost and efficiency of higher education institutions in england: a dea analysis. journal of the operational research society. 62. pp. 1282-197. issn. 2011. or ilhan and sarica. (2005). efficiency assessment of turkish power plants using data envelopment analysis. elsavier. vol. 32. turkey: university of istanbul prasetyo, p. eko. (2016). fundamental makro ekonomi. edisi 1, cetakan ke enam. yogyakarta: beta offset. _____, p. eko. (2010). ekonomi industri. yogyakarta: beta offset. _____, p. eko. (2017). productivity of textile industry and textile products in central java. jurnal ekonomi dan kebijakan. vol.10. edisi 2. hal. 257-272 semarang: universitas negeri semarang. prasetyo, danang. (2010). analysis efisiensi teknis dan alokatif hotel di kawasan wisata tawangmangu kabupaten karanganyar dengan menggunakan metode dea. skripsi. surakarta: fakultas ekonomi uns. undang–undang no.23 tahun 2014. tentang pemerintah daerah. wijayanto a, sutarno. (2010). kinerja efisiensi fungsi intermediasi ban persero di indonesia dengan menggunakan pendekatan dea. jurnal keuangan dan perbankan. vol.14. no.1. hal. 110-112. studi efektivitas pelayanan publik di kecamatan kejaksan kota cirebon jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 1, april 2016, hlm. 55-70 doi: 10.18196/jesp.17.1.3635 analisis kemungkinan dampak keterlibatan indonesia dalam trans pacific partnership (tpp) terhadap kinerja perdagangan dan daya saing ekspor markhatin nurul latifah, akhmad akbar susamto institute of public policy and economic studies bulaksumur, caturtunggal, depok, sleman, daerah istimewa yogyakarta 55281, indonesia e-mail korespondensi: markhatinlatif@ymail.com naskah diterima: januari 2016; disetujui: april 2016 abstract: the trans pacific partnership (tpp) is the largest economic cooperation agreement in the asia pacific region. some countries are considering the decision to join this multilateral cooperation. this study aims to analyze the possible impact of indonesian involvement in tpp on trade performance and export competitiveness. this became one of the contributions in the development of islamic economic studies considering the purpose of this study is to formulate effective policies to realize a prosperous society selatas with maqashid shariah. the analysis in this research is done by simulating the free trade policy of indonesia-tpp using analytical tool of global trade analysis project (gtap) version 8. the result of the analysis shows the impact of the decline of indonesian trade performance in general. indonesia's export competitiveness is measured using revealed symmetric comparative advatage (rsca) and trade balance index (tbi) to identify indonesia's export commodities that have comparative and competitive advantages in the world market. by mapping the commodity into product mapping can be seen some of indonesia's superior commodities in the world market. keywords: computable general equilibrium models, economic integration, trade forecasting, trans pacific partnership (tpp). jel classification: f43, p45 abstrak: the trans pacific partnership (tpp) merupakan suatu kesepakatan kerja sama ekonomi terbesar di kawasan asia pasifik. beberapa negara tengah mempertimbangkan keputusan untuk bergabung dalam kerja sama multilateral ini. penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis kemungkinan dampak keterlibatan indonesia dalam tpp terhadap kinerja perdagangan dan daya saing ekspor. hal ini menjadi salah satu kontribusi dalam pengembangan studi ekonomi islam mengingat tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk merumuskan kebijakan efektif agar terwujud masyarakat yang sejahtera selatas dengan maqashid syariah. analisis dalam penelitian ini dilakukan dengan melakukan simulasi kebijakan perdagangan bebas indonesia-tpp menggunakan alat analisis global trade analysis project (gtap) versi 8. hasil analisis menunjukkan dampak turunnya kinerja perdagangan indonesia secara umum. daya saing ekspor indonesia diukur menggunakan revealed symmetric comparative advatage (rsca) dan trade balance index (tbi) sehingga dapat diidentifikasi komoditas ekspor indonesia yang memiliki keunggulan komparatif dan berdaya saing di pasar dunia. dengan memetakan komoditas ke dalam product mapping dapat dilihat beberapa komoditas unggulan indonesia di pasar dunia. kata kunci: model ekuilibrium umum komputasi, integrasi ekonomi, peramalan dan simulasi perdagangan, trans pacific partnership (tpp). klasifikasi jel: f43, p45 56 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 1, april 2016: 55-70 pendahuluan globalisasi yang semakin berkembang menuntut setiap negara untuk meningkatkan keterbukaan ekonominya dengan negara lain, salah satunya adalah melalui kegiatan perdagangan internasional. isu yang selalu berkembang dalam perdagangan internasional adalah peningkatan liberalisasi dengan menghapuskan berbagai hambatan perdagangan. pengurangan atau bahkan penghapusan hambatan dalam perdagangan internasional ini dilakukan dengan berbagai skema, dan hanya berlaku bagi negara-negara yang bersepakat melalui perjanjian dalam suatu kerja sama internasional, baik itu bilateral, regional maupun multilateral. salah satu kesepakatan perdagangan bebas yang baru saja disepakati di kawasan asiapasifik dan tengah menjadi isu hangat barubaru ini adalah trans pacific partnership (tpp). sejumlah negara di kawasan asia pasifik tengah mengkaji dan mempertimbangkan keputusan untuk bergabung dengan kerja sama multilateral ini. kerja sama multilateral tpp merupakan yang paling besar di dunia. tercatat, aktivitas ekonomi di antara negaranegara anggota tpp mencapai sekitar 40 persen produk domestik bruto (pdb) dunia, dengan pelaku ekonomi 10 persen dari total populasi dunia, serta 20 persen dari total perdagangan dunia (aichele & felbermayr, 2015). hal ini menjadi salah satu daya tarik tersendiri bagi negara-negara di kawasan asia pasifik untuk bergabung dalam tpp. wacana mengenai komitmen indonesia untuk bergabung dengan tpp telah disampaikan oleh presiden joko widodo kepada presiden amerika barack obama ketika berkunjung ke amerika serikat pada tanggal 27 oktober 2015 (wangke, 2015). keputusan indonesia untuk bergabung dengan tpp ini telah menuai banyak perdebatan. argumen yang mendukung indonesia untuk bergabung ke dalam tpp adalah agar indonesia dapat memperluas akses pasar ke negara-negara anggota tpp dan menjadi negara tangguh. namun di sisi lain, indonesia dinilai belum siap untuk bergabung dengan tpp karena dikhawatirkan hanya akan menjadi sasaran pasar bagi negara-negara anggota disebabkan daya saing produk indonesia yang masih rendah. pengkajian isu tersebut merupakan suatu kontribusi dalam pengembangan studi ekonomi islam. kajian ekonomi islam dimaksudkan untuk membantu mewujudkan kesejahteraan manusia melalui alokasi dan distribusi sumber-sumber daya sesuai dengan maqashid syariah maka telah dirumuskan beberapa tugas ekonomi islam. pertama, yaitu mempelajari perilaku manusia sebagaimana adanya. kedua, adalah menunjukkan jenis perilaku yang diperlukan bagi pencapaian tujuan. ketiga, menjelaskan mengapa pranata ekonomi yang berbeda berperilaku sebagaimana adanya, dan bukan sebagaimana yang seharusnya. keempat, yakni menyarankan suatu strategi yang dapat dilaksanakan dengan adanya perubahan sosial ekonomi dan politik, yang dapat membantu mengarahkan semua pelaku pasar untuk mengalokasikan dan mendistribusikan sumber daya untuk merealisasikan tujuan (chapra, 2000). berpijak dari hal tersebut, penelitian ini menjadi penting dalam pengembangan studi ekonomi islam khususnya pada aspek perdagangan dan kerja sama ekonomi internasional. pertama, indonesia merupakan negara dengan mayoritas penduduknya beragama islam terbesar di dunia, berdasarkan data bps yakni sekitar 207,18 juta jiwa di tahun 2010. kedua, tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah menganalisis dampak yang mungkin terjadi apabila indonesia terlibat dalam trans pacific partnership (tpp) sehingga nantinya dapat dirumuskan kebijakan terbaik untuk menghadapi kemungkinan tersebut agar terwujud kesejahteraan masyarakat yang selaras dengan maqashid syariah. analisis kemungkinan dampak keterlibatan indonesia dalam tpp… (markatin nurul latifah) 57 metode penelitian jenis dan sumber data secara keseluruhan, penelitian ini menggunakan data sekunder dari global trade analysis project (gtap) versi 8 dengan tahun dasar 2007 yang diproduksi oleh purdue university, usa. database gtap versi 8 ini terdiri dari 57 sektor komoditas dan meliputi 129 negara/region. tahapan penelitian tahapan analisis menggunakan gtap adalah sebagai berikut: melakukan agregasi data dari perangkat lunak gtapagg yaitu agregasi 3 region yakni: indonesia; negara-negara anggota tpp (austalia, brunei darussalam, canada, japan, malaysia, mexico, new zealand, peru, singapore, united states, dan vietnam). dalam database gtap versi 8, data negara brunei darussalam tidak tersedia, mengingat brunei darussalam merupakan salah satu negara anggota trans pacific partnership (tpp). oleh karena itu, agregasi dalam penelitian ini menggunakan variabel rest of southeast asia untuk mewakili negara brunei darussalam. rest of the world (negara-negara selain indonesia dan anggota tpp) sementara itu, agregasi 57 komoditas dalam gtapagg diagregasikan satu per satu, tetapi analisis dalam penelitian ini akan dikelompokkan menjadi 9 sektor utama, yakni sektor pertanian, peternakan, kehutanan dan perikanan; sektor pertambangan dan penggalian; sektor industri pengolahan; sektor listrik, gas dan air bersih; sektor bangunan; sektor perdagangan, hotel dan restoran; sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi; sektor keuangan, persewaan dan jasa perusahaan; serta sektor jasa-jasa. hasil dari agregasi data yang telah dilakukan selanjutnya disimpan sebagai sumber data untuk analisis selanjutnya. mengolah (running) data yang telah diagregasikan menggunakan rungtap 3.55 yang meliputi langkah-langkah sebagai berikut: menentukan variabel yang digunakan dalam model menjadi variabel endogen atau variabel eksogen. memberikan shock pada variabel eksogen. shock yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah variabel tms. variabel tms merupakan salah satu variabel eksogen yang didefinisikan sebagai perubahan pajak/tarif impor untuk komoditas i dari suatu region r ke region s. dalam hal ini, perlu diperhatikan jenis shock yaitu percentage change rate, percentage change power dan percentage target. penelitian ini menerapkan percentage change rate dalam simulasi kebijakan full liberalisation dengan menghilangkan/mengenolkan tarif impor bilateral untuk seluruh sektor (change rate=100%) dari indonesia ke tpp dan dari tpp ke indonesia. meskipun hal ini tidak dapat menggambarkan sepenuhnya keadaan dari skema trans pacific pacific (tpp), tetapi simulasi ini dapat memberikan gambaran liberalisasi perdagangan indonesia-tpp. hasil yang diperoleh lalu diberikan solusi dengan pendekatan gragg dengan ekstrapolasi melalui 3 solusi. pendekatan gragg memiliki akurasi yang lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan pendekatan euler dan pendekatan johansen karena pendekatan gragg memiliki tahapan yang lebih banyak. melakukan analisis dari hasil simulasi yang telah dilakukan. keputusan indonesia untuk terlibat dalam trans pacific partnership (tpp) akan berpengaruh juga pada kondisi perdagangan indonesia. salah satu indikator yang dapat menunjukkan hal ini adalah neraca perdagangan. indikator neraca perdagangan kemudian akan dijelaskan lebih rinci lagi pada komponen kinerja perdagangan, dengan melihat perubahan agregat ekspor dan agregat impor indonesia ke dunia setelah simulasi kebijakan. selanjutnya, apabila indonesia terlibat dalam trans pacific partnership (tpp), hal penting untuk dianalisis adalah mengenai dampaknya terhadap daya saing ekspor 58 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 1, april 2016: 55-70 indonesia yang direpresentasikan oleh keunggulan komparatif pada masing-masing komoditas. rca dan rsca keunggulan komparatif menunjukkan kemampuan suatu negara untuk memproduksi suatu barang/jasa dengan opportunity cost yang lebih rendah dibandingkan dengan negara lain. analisis empiris yang umum digunakan untuk meneliti pola keunggulan komparatif adalah revealed of comparative advantage (rca). perhitungan indeks rca oleh (vollrath, 1991:36) mengukur gambaran relatif dari ekspor negara di suatu komoditas apabila dibandingkan dengan gambaran rata-rata dari komoditas tersebut dalam total perdagangan dunia. indeks rca yang juga sering disebut dengan balassa index diformulasikan sebagai: formulasi tersebut menunjukkan rcaij adalah pengungkapan komparatif dari negara i untuk kelompok komoditas j dan xij adalah total ekspor negara i dalam kelompok komoditas j. r menunjukkan semua negara kecuali negara i dan n menunjuk kepada semua kelompok komoditas kecuali kelompok komoditas j. indeks dapat menggambarkan perbandingan dari struktur ekspor nasional (pembilang) dengan struktur ekspor dunia (penyebut). adanya peniadaan komoditas negara dan kelompok di bawah pertimbangan, perhitungan ganda dapat dihindari dan sifat perdagangan yang selalu terjadi perdagangan komoditas secara bilateral di antara dua negara dalam digambarkan dengan baik (worz, 2005; vollrath, 1991). nilai dari indeks berkisar dari 0 sampai tidak terhingga (0≤rcaij≤∞). apabila rcaij lebih besar daripada 1 menunjukkan bahwa negara i memiliki keunggulan komparatif dalam kelompok komoditas j. sebaliknya, jika rcaij kurang dari 1 berarti negara i tidak memiliki keunggulan komparatif (comparative disadvantage) di komoditas j. indeks rca atau balassa index lalu mendapatkan kritik bahwa distribusi dari rca tidak dapat diambil secara teoritis. hal tersebut terjadi karena rcaij memunculkan nilai yang tidak dapat dibandingkan pada kedua sisi dari 1, sehingga indeks tersebut perlu dibuat menjadi simetris. oleh karena itu digunakanlah indeks baru yang disebut dengan revealed symmetric advantage (rsca) yang diformulasikan sebagai berikut (laursen, 2000): indeks rscaij berkisar dari -1 sampai +1 (atau -1≤rscaij≤1). intepretasi rsca serupa dengan rca. rscaij lebih besar dari 0 menunjukkan bahwa negara i memiliki keunggulan komparatif dalam komoditas j dan rscaij kurang dari 0 berarti bahwa negara i tidak memiliki keunggulan komparatif (comparative disadvantage) dalam komoditas j. trade balance index (tbi) trade balance index (tbi) digunakan untuk menganalisis apakah negara memiliki spesialisasi dalam ekspor (net-exporter) atau impor (net-importer) untuk kelompok komoditas tertentu. tbi diformulasikan sebagai berikut. berdasarkan formula tersebut, tbi menunjukkan trade balance index negara i untuk kelompok komoditas j; xij dan mij masingmasing menggambarkan ekspor dan impor kelompok komoditas j dari negara i. nilai dari kisaran indeks dari -1 ke +1. tbi sama dengan -1 apabila sebuah negara hanya mengimpor. sebaliknya, tbi sama dengan +1 apabila sebuah negara hanya mengekspor. sementara indeks tidak terdefinisi ketika tidak ekspor dan impor. peletakan nilai 0 pada kelompok komoditas memperlihatkan bahwa berpotensi untuk menjadi ekspor atau impor. nilai dalam -1 dan +1 menunjukkan bahwa negara mengekspor dan mengimpor secara bersama-sama. negara didefinisikan sebagai “net-importer” dalam kelompok komoditas tertentu ketika nilai tbi adalah negatif dan sebagai “net-exporter” ketika analisis kemungkinan dampak keterlibatan indonesia dalam tpp… (markatin nurul latifah) 59 nilai tbi positif. product mapping product mapping dikembangkan oleh widodo (2009) untuk menentukan pola konsep flying geese. berdasarkan penghitungan revealed symmetric comparative advantage (rsca) dan trade balance index (tbi), maka dibangunlah alat analisis untuk mengombinasikannya dengan menggunakan panel flying geese dengan membuat kategori komoditas yang diekspor. grup b: keunggulan komparatif net-importer (rsca>0 dan tbi<0) grup a: keunggulan komparatif net-exporter (rsca>0 dan tbi>0) grup d: tidak memiliki keunggulan komparatif net-importer (rsca<0 dan tbi<0) grup c: tidak memiliki keunggulan komparatif net-exporter (rsca<0 dan tbi>0) sumber: (widodo, 2010) gambar 1. product mapping flying geese dalam hal ini merupakan komoditas dan alat analisisnya disebut dengan “product mapping”. gambar 1 menunjukkan bagan product mapping yang dapat digunakan untuk mengkategorikan leading exported product menjadi dua sisi, sisi pertama pertama adalah terkait apakah suatu negara memiliki keunggulan komparatif atau tidak dan sisi kedua terkait dengan apakah suatu negara menjadi negara pengekspor atau pengimpor. dalam penelitian ini, untuk menghitung revealed symmetric comparative advantage (rsca) dan trade balance index (tbi), digunakan data yang bersumber dari database gtap versi 8, yakni variabel vims yang mempresentasikan nilai impor komoditas i dari region r ke region s pada tingkat harga domestik. dua titik tahun yang digunakan adalah database gtap versi 8 sebelum simulasi dan upadated data yang merupakan output yang dihasilkan setelah simulasi. analisis yang digunakan adalah pendekatan shift yakni dengan melihat pola pergeseran dari penghitungan revealed symmetric comparative advantage (rsca) dan trade balance index (tbi) di antara kedua titik tahun tersebut. hasil dan pembahasan indikator makroekonomi yang dijelaskan dalam penelitian ini adalah neraca perdagangan. dengan terlibatnya indonesia dalam trans pacifc partnership (tpp), neraca perdagangan indonesia diprediksi akan turun sebesar 833,693 juta dolar amerika. hal tersebut juga akan berdampak pada meningkatnya defisit neraca perdagangan pada negara-negara trans pacifc partnership (tpp), tetapi dampaknya tidak lebih besar dibanding indonesia karena diprediksikan sebesar 286,278 juta dolar amerika. sementara itu, neraca perdagangan rest of the world (row) justru akan meningkat sebesar 1119,970 juta dolar amerika. sumber: gtap versi 8, diolah gambar 2. kemungkinan dampak keterlibatan indonesia dalam tpp terhadap neraca perdagangan perubahan yang terjadi dalam neraca perdagangan indonesia selanjutnya dijelaskan oleh kinerja perdagangan indonesia di pasar dunia. analisis tersebut dilakukan dengan melihat perubahan agregat ekspor dan agregat impor indonesia di pasar dunia, meliputi 57 komoditas yang dikelompokkan ke dalam 9 sektor utama. tbi<0 r s c a > 0 r s c a < 0 tbi>0 60 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 1, april 2016: 55-70 kemungkinan dampak keterlibatan indonesia dalam trans pacific partnership (tpp) terhadap kinerja perdagangan indonesia apabila indonesia terlibat di dalam kesepakatan trans pacifc partnership (tpp) dan membuka keran liberalisasi perdagangan dengan negara-negara anggotanya, maka posisi indonesia dalam pasar dunia menjadi salah satu hal yang penting untuk didiskusikan. hal ini dapat dilihat melalui kinerja perdagangan indonesia di dalam pasar internasional, yang direpresentasikan dengan perubahan agregat ekspor dan agregat impor indonesia di pasar dunia, pada masing-masing komoditas yang dijelaskan dalam sembilan sektor. sektor pertanian, peternakan, kehutanan dan perikanan terdiri dari 14 komoditas dalam gtap. beberapa komoditas menunjukkan kenaikan dua sisi, maksudnya kenaikan agregat ekspor indonesia ke dunia disertai juga dengan kenaikan agregat impor ke indonesia dari pasar dunia apabila indonesia ikut andil dalam kerja sama trans pacific partnership (tpp). komoditas ini antara lain padi (paddy rice), gandum (cereal grains not elsewhere classified), sayur buah dan kacang (vegetables, fruits, nuts), biji sawit (oil seeds), hasil panen lainnya (crops nec), dan hasil ternak domba, kambing dan kuda (bovine cattle, sheep and goats, horses). kenaikan agregat ekspor indonesia ke dunia yang cukup besar dirasakan oleh komoditas padi (paddy rice) yakni sebesar 392,52 persen sedangkan kenaikan agregat impornya hanya sebesar 0,87 persen. di sisi lain, terdapat komoditas terigu (wheat) yang justru menerima dampaknya pada penurunan masing-masing agregat ekspor dan agregat impor di pasar dunia. disisi lain, agregat ekspor indonesia untuk komoditas gula tebu (sugar cone, sugar beet) dan susu mentah (raw milk) ke dunia mengalami kenaikan yang disertai dengan penurunan pada sisi agregat impor. hal ini mengindikasikan bahwa akan terjadi perbaikan kinerja perdagangan pada kedua komoditas ini apabila kebijakan liberalisasi penuh indonesia-tpp diberlakukan. sementara itu, penyumbang memburuknya kinerja perdagangan indonesia sektor pertanian apabila diberlakukannya kebijakan liberalisasi perdagangan indonesiatpp berasal dari lima komoditas yakni tanaman kebun (plant-based flowers), hasil produksi hewani lainnya (animal products nec), wol/bulu domba-sutera (wool silk-wool cocoons), kehutanan (forestry) serta perikanan (fishing). komoditas batu bara (coal), minyak tanah/pelumas (oil), gas (gas), barang tambang mineral lainnya (minerals nec) dan minyak bumi (petroleum) termasuk dalam sektor pertambangan dan penggalian. hampir semua komoditas dalam sektor ini akan memperoleh dampak liberalisasi perdagangan indonesiatpp pada penurunan agregat ekspor indonesia di pasar dunia. kenaikan agregat ekspor ke dunia hanya dialami oleh komoditas minyak tanah/pelumas (oil) saja sebesar 0,5 persen dan disertai berkurangnya agregat impor sebesar 1,13 persen. jadi secara umum, kinerja perdagangan dari sektor pertambangan dan penggalian akan memburuk apabila kebijakan liberalisasi perdagangan indonesia-tpp benarbenar diberlakukan. sektor industri pengolahan merupakan sektor terbesar yang melingkupi 23 komoditas dalam gtap. simulasi kebijakan dengan memberlakukannya liberalisasi perdagangan antara indonesia dan trans pacific partnership (tpp) akan berdampak pada perubahan agregat ekspor dan agregat impor indonesia komoditas-komoditas tersebut di pasar global dengan pola yang bervariasi. kenaikan terbesar ekspor agregat indonesia di pasar dunia yakni pada komoditas pakaian jadi (wearing apparel) yang mencapai 81,29 persen lalu diikuti oleh komoditas minuman ringan dan tembakau (beverages and tobacco products) serta susu olahan (diary products) masing-masing sebesar 33,01 persen dan 30,78 persen. sementara itu, 14 komoditas lainnya akan mengalami dampak penurunan pada nilai ekspor agregat ke pasar dunia. dari sisi agregat impor yang masuk ke pasar indonesia dari seluruh dunia, seluruh analisis kemungkinan dampak keterlibatan indonesia dalam tpp… (markatin nurul latifah) 61 komoditas di sektor industri pengolahan mengalami kenaikan dengan persentase yang berbeda-beda. kenaikan terbesar agregat impor terjadi pada komoditas tekstil (textiles) yakni sebesar 21,52 persen, tetapi diimbangi pula oleh kenaikan agregat ekspor indonesia ke dunia sebesar 20,46 persen. lalu, disusul kemudian komoditas/produk daging lainnya (bovine meat product), dan komoditas logam (metal products) yang masing-masing sebesar 19,54 persen dan 18,11 persen. pada sektor listrik, gas dan air bersih, setiap penurunan agregat ekspor tersebut dibarengi dengan kenaikan nilai agregat impor dari komoditas listrik (electricity), gas (gas manufacture and distribution), dan air (water) dari pasar dunia ke indonesia. berdasarkan hasil simulasi tersebut nampak bahwa setiap persentase penurunan agregat ekspor selalu lebih besar dibandingkan persentase kenaikan nilai agregat impornya. sektor konstruksi hanya terdiri komoditas konstruksi (construction) yang mengalami penurunan ekspor agregat dari indonesia ke pasar dunia sebesar 4,51 persen. sedangkan perubahan agregat impor pada komoditas ini mengarah ke arah positif yang artinya meningkat sebesar 3,52 persen. sektor keenam, yakni sektor perdagangan, hotel dan restoran hanya terdiri satu komoditas saja, yaitu perdagangan (trade). apabila diberlakukan liberalisasi, dengan skema penghapusan tarif seluruhnya di pasar indonesia-tpp, maka nilai agregat ekspor dari indonesia ke dunia untuk sektor perdagangan akan turun sebesar 6,21 persen seiring dengan meningkatnya nilai agregat impor sebesar 3,22 persen dari indonesia ke dunia. sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi terdiri dari komoditas transportasi air (sea transport), transportasi udara (air transport), komunikasi (communication), dan transportasi lainnya (transport nec). keempat komoditas tersebut memperoleh dampak liberalisasi perdagangan indonesia-tpp dengan pola yang sama, yaitu nilai agregat ekspor indonesia ke dunia menurun yang diiringi dengan meningkatnya nilai agregat impor indonesia. agregat ekspor indonesia ke dunia dari komoditas jasa keuangan lainnya (financial services nec), asuransi (insurance) dan layanan bisnis lainnya (business service nec) akan menurun masing-masing sebesar 6,72 persen, 6,66 persen dan 5,95 persen. penurunan agregat ekspor ini juga disertai dengan peningkatan agregat impor atas ketiga komoditas tersebut masing-masing sebesar 3,32 persen, 2,07 persen, dan 1,38 persen. dengan demikian sektor keuangan, persewaan dan jasa perusahaan justu akan dirugikan apabila indonesia bergabung dengan trans pacific partnership (tpp). ketiga komoditas pada sektor jasa-jasa ini diprediksikan akan mengalami perubahan agregat ekspor indonesia ke dunia ke arah negatif yang disertai dengan kenaikan nilai agregat impor dari pasar internasional pada komoditas adminstrasi publik/pertahanan/ kesehatan/pendidikan (public administration/ defence/health/ education) dan komoditas pariwisata dan jasa lainnya (recreation and other service) masing-masing sebesar 2,92 persen dan 2,98 persen. sementara itu, perubahan agregat impor pada sektor hunian (dwellings) searah dengan perubahan agregat ekspornya di pasar global. oleh karena itu, dapat disimpulkan bahwa tidak ada komoditas di sektor jasa-jasa yang akan diuntungkan dengan adanya skema liberalisasi penuh aatara indonesia dan trans pacific partnership (tpp). berdasarkan analisis kinerja perdagangan seperti yang telah dijelaskan secara sektoral tersebut, dapat kita terima bahwa menurunnya neraca perdagangan indonesia sejalan dengan menurunnya kinerja perdagangan indonesia hampir di semua sektor. akan tetapi, hal tersebut tidak cukup untuk mengatakan bahwa keterlibatan indonesia ke dalam trans pacific partnership (tpp) akan memberikan pengaruh yang negatif bagi indonesia. hal ini dikarenakan dampak positif maupun negatif terhadap kinerja perdagangan masing-masing 62 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 1, april 2016: 55-70 sektor yang ditimbulkan dari keterlibatan tersebut mungkin saja memberikan peluang dan tantangan bagi masing-masing komoditas dan sektor dalam pasar global. untuk itu, diperlukan analisis mengenai daya saing ekspor dari setiap komoditas agar dapat dirumuskan kebijakan perdagangan yang sesuai. kemungkinan dampak keterlibatan indonesia dalam trans pacific partnership (tpp) terhadap daya saing ekspor indonesia secara umum, suatu negara akan diuntungkan dengan adanya liberalisasi perdagangan apabila setiap negara dapat mengalokasikan sumber daya yang dimilikinya pada sektor-sektor yang memiliki keunggulan komparatif. dampak yang mungkin ditimbulkan apabila indonesia terlibat dalam trans pacific partnership (tpp) dianalisis dari segi daya saing ekspor berdasarkan nilai keunggulan komparatif dan posisi perdagangannya. daya saing ekpsor setiap komoditas indonesia dihitung menggunakan indeks revealed symmetric comparative advantage (rsca) dan trade balance index (tbi). hasil penghitungan rsca menunjukkan beberapa komoditas indonesia yang memiliki nilai lebih besar dari nol (rsca>0), artinya komoditas tersebut memiliki keunggulan komparatif. seperti yang tersaji dalam tabel berikut: tabel 1. komoditas indonesia yang memiliki keunggulan komparatif comprising komoditas nilai rsca sebelum simulasi setelah simulasi ocr crops nec 0,589 0,599 oap animal products nec 0,119 0,106 fsh fishing 0,475 0,464 coa coal 0,912 0,909 gas gas 0,696 0,687 omn minerals nec 0,697 0,690 vol vegetable oils and fats 0,897 0,891 ofd food products nec 0,151 0,143 tex textiles 0,351 0,410 wap wearing apparel 0,414 0,600 lea leather products 0,429 0,498 lum wood products 0,494 0,472 ppp paper products, publishing 0,419 0,401 nfm metals nec 0,241 0,201 cmn communication 0,161 0,125 sumber: data diolah hasil penghitungan rsca menjelaskan perbedaan nilai keunggulan komparatif antara dua titik waktu, yakni periode sebelum dan setelah diberlakukan kebijakan liberalisasi perdagangan indonesia-tpp. secara umum, perubahan yang terjadi sebelum simulasi tidak membuat suatu komoditas tertentu menjadi tidak memiliki keunggulan komparatif setelah dilakukan simluasi liberalisasi perdagangan. seperti yang nampak pada tabel di atas, perubahan hanya terjadi pada kenaikan nilai rsca yang mengindikasikan bahwa komoditas tersebut semakin unggul, ataupun penurunan indeks keunggulan komparatif (nilai rsca) saja yang mengindikasikan bahwa komoditas tersebut keunggulannya semakin berkurang, tanpa mengubah status komoditas menjadi tidak unggul. komoditas yang semakin tinggi nilai keunggulan komparatifnya setelah simulasi kebijakan liberalisasi antara lain hasil panen lainnya (crops nec), tekstil (textiles), pakaian jadi analisis kemungkinan dampak keterlibatan indonesia dalam tpp… (markatin nurul latifah) 63 (wearing apparel), dan kulit (leather products). hal ini sejalan dengan perkiraan dampak terhadap kinerja perdagangan seperti yang telah dipaparkan sebelumnya, yakni untuk komoditas crops nec, wearing apparel dan leather products, peningkatan agregat ekspornya lebih besar dibandingkan dengan peningkatan agregat impornya di pasar dunia. tetapi, komoditas tekstil (textiles) yang mengalami peningkatan nilai keunggulan komparatifnya justru kenaikan agregat impornya lebih besar dibanding dengan kenaikan agregat ekspornya. sementara itu, komoditas yang nilai keunggulan komparatifnya semakin turun jumlahnya lebih banyak, antara lain, produk hewani lainnya (animal products nec), perikanan (fishing), batu bara (coal), gas (gas), barang tambang mineral lainnya (minerals nec), minyak sayur/nabati (vegetable oils and fats), produk makanan lainnya (food products nec), kayu (wood products), kertas (paper products, publishing), logam lainnya (metals nec), dan komunikasi (communication). hal ini juga seiring dengan memburuknya kinerja perdagangan indonesia ke dunia atas komoditas-komoditas yang keunggulan komparatifnya berkurang tersebut setelah kebijakan liberalisasi indonesia-tpp diberlakukan. di sisi lain, komoditas yang memiliki nilai indeks rsca kurang dari nol (rsca<0) yang berarti komoditas tersebut tidak memiliki keunggulan komparatif tercatat sebanyak 39 komoditas dan sekitar 85 persen nilai rsca nya semakin ke arah negatif. apabila dicermati, kelompok komoditas yang memiliki keunggulan komparatif dan tidak memiliki keunggulan komparatif pada kedua titik waktu, yakni sebelum dan sesudah simulasi tidak menunjukkan perubahan yang berarti. tidak ada komoditas yang mengalami pergeseran, baik dari unggul komparatif menjadi tidak unggul komparatif, ataupun sebaliknya. oleh karena itu, analisis selanjutnya perlu memperhitungkan trade balance index (tbi) untuk memetakan masing-masing komoditas tersebut yakni dengan melihat posisi suatu negara apakah sebagai net exportir atau net importir di dalam product mapping. berdasarkan nilai dari revealed symmetric comparative advantage (rsca) dan trade balances index (tbi) yang telah dihitung, posisi ekspor impor suatu negara dapat ditentukan dalam struktur product mapping yang dikelompokkan menjadi empat kategori. kategori a merupakan komoditas yang memiliki keunggulan komparatif dan negara tersebut menjadi eksportir untuk komoditas tersebut. kategori a ini merupakan komoditas yang memiliki nilai rsca > 0 dan nilai tbi > 0 serta merupakan posisi paling bagus dalam struktur product mapping. komoditas yang termasuk dalam kategori b merupakan komoditas yang memiliki keunggulan komparatif tetapi negara tersebut sebagai netimportir yang ditunjukkan dengan nilai rsca > 0 tetapi nilai tbi < 0. selanjutnya, komoditas dikatakan termasuk kategori c ketika nilai rsca < 0 tetapi nilai tbi > 0, yang berarti bahwa suatu negara mengekspor komoditas tersebut meskipun sebenarnya tidak memiliki keunggulan komparatif di dalamnya. dan terakhir, untuk kategori d apabila nilai rsca < 0 dan tbi < 0, maksudnya suatu negara merupakan net importir atas suatu komoditas yang tidak memiliki keunggulan komparatif. pengelompokan ke dalam product mapping yang telah dilakukan menghasilkan beberapa komoditas indonesia yang memiliki keunggulan komparatif dan indonesia merupakan net-eksportir atas komoditas tersebut. 64 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 1, april 2016: 55-70 tabel 2. komoditas indonesia kategori a comprising komoditas sebelum simulasi setelah simulasi ocr crops nec a a oap animal products nec a a fsh fishing a a coa coal a a gas gas a a omn minerals nec a a vol vegetable oils and fats a a ofd food products nec a a tex textiles a a wap wearing apparel a a lea leather products a a lum wood products a a ppp paper products, publishing a a nfm metals nec a a cmn communication a a sumber: data diolah komoditas yang termasuk dalam kategori a menunjukkan bahwa komoditas tersebut memiliki keunggulan komparatif dan konsisten pada kedua titik waktu yakni sebelum dan setelah simulasi kebijakan perdaganan bebasa indonesia-tpp diberlakukan. konsistensi tersebut mengindikasikan bahwa komoditaskomoditas tersebut potensial dan siap untuk bersaing di pasar global apabila indonesia bergabung dengan trans pacific partnership (tpp) dan memberlakukan kebijakan liberalisasi penuh. sementara itu, dari penghitungan nilai rsca dan tbi dihasilkan juga beberapa komoditas indonesia yang memiliki keunggulan komparatif tetapi indonesia justru menjadi net exporter atas komoditas tersebut. komoditas dalam kelompok ini dimasukkan dalam kategori c. artinya, meskipun komoditas ini tidak unggul secara komparatif, tetapi indonesia masih dapat menjadi eksportir ke pasar dunia. komoditas indonesia seperti hasil hutan (forestry), tembakau (beverages and tobacco products), karet dan plastik (chemical, rubber, plastic products), produk mineral lainnya (mineral products nec), produk industri lainnya (manufactures nec), industri gas dan distribusinya (gas manufacture and distribution), serta transportasi air (sea transport) tidak memiliki keunggulan komparatif tetapi indonesia berperan sebagai net exporter di pasar dunia, baik sebelum simulasi maupun setelah simulasi kebijakan liberalisasi penuh indonesiatpp. selain komoditas-komoditas yang termasuk ke dalam kategori a dan c, sebagian besar komoditas indonesia termasuk dalam kategori d. tercatat sebanyak 30 komoditas, atau sekitar 52,6 persen dari total komoditas indonesia termasuk dalam kategori d. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa sebagian besar komoditas indonesia tidak memiliki keunggulan komparatif dan indonesia berperan sebagai net importer atas komoditas-komoditas tersebut. artinya, sebelum dan sesudah perdagangan indonesia-tpp diliberalisasi, masih banyak komoditas indonesia yang tidak mampu bersaing di pasar internasional. komposisi komoditas yang telah dikategorikan berdasarkan penghitungan rsca dan tbi ditampilkan dalam gambar 3. analisis kemungkinan dampak keterlibatan indonesia dalam tpp… (markatin nurul latifah) 65 sumber: diolah gambar 3. plot product mapping komoditas indonesia trend komoditas indonesia dari periode sebelum simulasi dibandingkan dengan periode setelah simulasi tidak menunjukkan adanya perubahan yang besar. sebagian besar komoditas indonesia termasuk dalam kategori d (30/57 komoditas) sekitar 52,6 persen. sedangkan komoditas dalam kategori a (15/57 komoditas) sekitar 26,3 persen. dalam penelitian ini, terdapat tiga komoditas yang tidak terdefinisikan yakni sugar cone, sugar beet (c_b), electricity (ely) dan hunian/dwellings (dwe). pergeseran kategorisasi hanya terjadi pada dua komoditas, yakni padi/paddy rice (pdr) dan peralatan elektronik/electronic equipment (ele). komoditas padi menunjukkan perkembangan ke arah yang lebih baik dari segi trade balance index (tbi). awalnya, sebelum kebijakan liberalisasi penuh indonesia-tpp diberlakukan, komoditas padi termasuk dalam kategori d di dalam product mapping. artinya komoditas padi tidak memiliki keunggulan komparatif serta indonesia berperan sebagai net importer atas komoditas tersebut. lalu, ketika diberlakukan kebijakan liberalisasi penuh dalam simulasi, akan berdampak pada pergerseran komoditas padi ke kategori c, yang berarti bahwa setelah kebijakan liberalisasi penuh indonesia-tpp, indonesia akan berperan sebagai net exporter padi, meskipun komoditas tersebut tidak memiliki keunggulan komparatif. lain halnya dengan komoditas peralatan elektronik (ele) yang juga mengalami pergeseran dari periode sebelum dan setelah simulasi liberalisasi indonesia-tpp. namun, pergeseran tersebut justru menunjukkan kemunduran. sebelum dilakukan simulasi kebijakan liberalisasi penuh, untuk komoditas peralatan elektronik (ele) indonesia berperan sebagai net exporter yang dicerminkan oleh nilai tbi > 0, meskipun komoditas ele tersebut tidak memiliki keunggulan komparatif. artinya, sebelum simulasi komoditas ini termasuk dalam kategori c. lalu, setelah simulasi kebijakan liberalisasi indonesia-tpp diberlakukan, indonesia justru akan menjadi net importer atas komoditas ele yang tidak memiliki keunggulan komparatig ini sehingga membuat komoditas ini bergeser ke kategori d. penghitungan indeks keunggulan komparatif tersebut menghasilkan lima komoditas unggulan yang diperkirakan akan dapat bersaing apabila indonesia bergabung menjadi anggota trans pacific partnership (tpp). kelima komoditas unggulan tersebut disajikan dalam tabel 4. tabel 4. top 5 komoditas indonesia comprising komoditas coa coal vol vegetable oils and fats omn minerals nec gas gas wap wearing apparel sumber: data diolah a c d b a b c d 66 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 1, april 2016: 55-70 komoditas unggulan indonesia tersebut berasal dari sektor pertambangan dan penggalian, dan sektor industri pengolahan. di sektor pertambangan dan penggalian, batu bara (coal) menempati posisi pertama dengan indeks keunggulan komparatif tertinggi. dari sektor pertambangan, komoditas lainnya adalah komoditas barang tambang mineral lainnya (minerals nec) dan komoditas gas (gas) masingmasing di posisi ketiga dan keempat. dari sektor industri pengolahan, daya saing yang tinggi dicerminkan oleh indeks keunggulan komparatifnya diwakili oleh komoditas minyak dan lemak nabati (vegetable oils and fats) di peringkat dua dan komoditas pakaian jadi (wearing apparel) pada posisi kelima. simpulan penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis kemungkinan dampak yang ditimbulkan apabila indonesia bergabung dengan trans pacific partnership (tpp) terhadap kinerja perdagangan secara sektoral dan daya saing ekspor indonesia. berdasarkan hasil analisis, bergabungnya indonesia dalam trans pacific partnership (tpp) akan berakibat pada turunnya neraca perdagangan indonesia dan negara-negara anggota tpp sedangkan negara non anggota tpp (rest of the world) justru akan diuntungkan dengan meningkatnya neraca perdagangan. turunnya neraca perdagangan indonesia dijelaskan oleh perubahan nilai agregat ekspor dan agregat impor indonesia di pasar dunia ke dalam sembilan sektor. sektor yang digolongkan antara lain sektor pertanian, peternakan, kehutanan, dan perikanan; sektor pertambangan dan penggalian; sektor industri pengolahan; sektor listrik, gas dan air bersih; sektor konstruksi; sektor perdagangan; sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi; sektor keuangan. real estat dan jasa perusahaan; serta sektor jasa-jasa. secara umum, semua sektor yang ada mengalami penurunan kinerja perdagangan yang tercermin dari persentase peningkatan agregat impor indonesia dari dunia yang lebih besar dibandingkan dengan persentase peningkatan agregat ekspor indonesia ke pasar dunia. daya saing setiap komoditas indonesia sebelum dan setelah diberlakukan simulasi kebijakan perdagangan bebas indonesia-tpp diukur dengan menggunakan revealed symmetric comparative advantage (rsca) dan trade balance index (tbi) yang memungkinkan setiap komoditas dikategorikan dalam struktur product mapping. berdasarkan penghitungan rsca, didapatkan 15 komoditas indonesia (26,3 persen) memiliki keunggulan komparatif. sedangkan komoditas yang tidak memiliki keunggulan komparatif tercatat sebanyak 39 komoditas (68,4 persen). dalam struktur product mapping, komoditas indonesia pada periode baik sebelum maupun setelah simulasi perdagangan bebas indonesiatpp, yang termasuk dalam kategori a tercatat sebanyak 15 komoditas, kategori c sebanyak 7 komoditas, dan kategori d sebanyak 30 komoditas. pergeseran kategorisasi hanya terjadi pada komoditas padi (paddy rice) dari kategori d sebelum simulasi ke kategori c setelah simulasi, serta komoditas peralatan elektronik (electronic equipment) dari sebelum simulasi termasuk kategori c bergeser ke kategori d setelah dilakukan simulasi perdagangan bebas indonesia-tpp. berdasarkan hasil penghitungan rsca, didapatkan lima komoditas unggulan (top five products) indonesia yang diperkirakan akan mampu bersaing dan menjadi primadona apabila dilakukan liberalisasi perdagangan indonesia-tpp. kelima komoditas tersebut antara lain batu bara (coal), minyak dan lemak nabati (vegetable oils and fats), barang tambang mineral lainnya (minerals nec), gas (gas), dan pakaian jadi (wearing apparel). berdasarkan hasil pembahasan tersebut, keterlibatan indonesia dalam tpp memungkinkan adanya pengaruh yang negatif dalam kinerja perdagangan indonesia. selain itu pula hanya sebagian kecil komoditas ekspor indonesia yang mampu bersaing apabila liberalisasi perdagangan indonesia-tpp benarbenar diberlakukan. oleh karena itu, dapat ditarik kesimpulan bahwa setiap negara, khususnya indonesia perlu hati-hati dalam memutuskan untuk bergabung dalam suatu kerja sama internasional agar kebijakan yang diambil dapat mewujudkan kesejahteraan masyarakat yang selaras dengan maqashid syariah. analisis kemungkinan dampak keterlibatan indonesia dalam tpp… (markatin nurul latifah) 67 implikasi kebijakan dampak yang mungkin ditimbulkan apabila indonesia bergabung dalam trans pacific partnership (tpp) adalah menurunnya neraca perdagangan indonesia. untuk itu, diperlukan adanya kebijakan yang efektif untuk menjaga dan memperbaiki kinerja perdagangan indonesia. perlu dilakukan peningkatan kapasitas produksi pada komoditas-komoditas yang diperkirakan mengalami peningkatan agregat ekspor ke pasar dunia. mendukung komoditas indonesia yang memiliki daya saing sebagai leading exported products dari indonesia ke pasar dunia. hal ini dapat dilakukan dengan mendorong produksi yang lebih efisien, transfer ilmu dan teknologi dari negara-negara anggota trans pacifif partnership (tpp). keterbatasan penelitian shock yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini hanya didasarkan pada liberalisasi hambatan perdagangan dari sisi tarif perdagangan. sementara itu, kerjasama trans pacific partnership (tpp) merupakan suatu kesepakatan komprehensif yang tidak hanya mengatur perdagangan barang dan jasa, tetapi juga investasi, hukum, hak kekayaan intelektual dan aspek lainnya diantara negara-negara anggota. penelitian ini menggunakan gtap standar versi 8 dengan tahun dasar 2007 sehingga analisisnya bersifat statik-komparatif. tahun dasar yang digunakan juga memungkinkan adanya perbedaan pada aspek ekonomi dan perdagangan dengan kondisi saat ini. oleh karena itu, untuk penelitian selanjutnya lebih baik menggunakan gtap dengan model dinamis dan versi terbaru yakni versi 9 yang dirilis pada tahun 2015 agar menghasilkan prediksi yang lebih mendekati kondisi yang sebenarnya. daftar pustaka aichele, r., & felbermayr, g. (2015, october 8). the trans-pacific partnership deal (tpp): what are the economic consequences for inand outsiders. global economic dynamics focus paper, 8--9. chapra, umer. (2000). the future of economics: an islamic perspective. leicester: the islamic foundation. laursen, k. (2000). trade specialisation, technology and growth: theory and evidence from advanced countries. cheltenham, uk and lyme, us: edward elgar. vollrath, t. (1991). a theoretical evaluation of alternative trade intensity measures of revealed comparative advantage. weltwirtschaftliches archiv, 265-280. widodo, t. (2009). comparative advantage: theory, empirical measures and case studies. review of economic and business studies, 57-82. widodo, t. (2010). international trade, regionalism and dynamic market (pertama ed.). yogyakarta, indonesia: bpfe. worz, j. (2005). dynamic of trade specialization in developed and less developed countries. emerging markets finance and trade, 92-122. 68 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 1, april 2016: 55-70 lampiran tabel 1. perubahan agregat ekspor dan agregat impor komoditas dalam gtap kode hasil simulasi agregat ekspor agregat impor sektor pertanian, peternakan, kehutanan dan perikanan paddy rice pdr 392,52 0,87 wheat wht -3,02 -0,22 cereal grains not elsewhere classified (nec) gro 0,94 1,27 vegetables, fruits, nuts v_f 1,73 2,46 oil seeds osd 3,73 4,93 sugar cone, sugar beet c_b 8,46 -9,68 plant-based flowers pfb -18,24 47,69 crops nec ocr 7,28 3,30 bovine cattle, sheep and goats, horses ctl 4,30 6,97 animal products nec oap -0,72 3,23 raw milk rmk 0,71 -0,76 wool silk-wool cocoons wol -0,85 23,30 forestry frs -7,95 3,49 fishing fsh -1,19 3,39 sektor pertambangan dan penggalian coal coa -0,84 6,89 oil oil 0,50 -1,13 gas gas -0,62 -0,45 minerals nec omn -0,80 1,18 petroleum, coal product p_c -0,06 2,02 sektor industri pengolahan bovine meat product cmt -2,25 19,54 meat products nec omt -10,88 16,05 vegetable oils and fats vol -3,95 1,35 dairy products mil 30,78 10,08 processed rice pcr -1,46 17,36 sugar sgr 20,57 11,78 food products nec ofd 1,43 10,49 beverages and tobacco products b_t 33,01 15,42 textiles tex 20,46 21,52 wearing apparel wap 81,29 9,14 leather products lea 25,32 17,06 wood products lum -3,70 8,32 paper products, publishing ppp -2,16 2,15 chemical, rubber, plastic product crp -4,28 10,54 mineral products nec nmm -1,69 8,82 ferrous metals i_s -3,98 1,78 metals nec nfm -6,16 0,13 metal products fmp -0,07 18,11 motor vehicles and parts mvh 2,86 15,21 transport equipment nec otn -4,20 1,68 electronic equipment ele -4,25 1,29 machinery and equipment nec ome 1,15 2,07 manufactures nec omf -3,59 9,00 sektor listrik, gas dan air bersih electricity ely -2,87 1,24 gas manufacture and distribution gdt -7,86 2,51 water wtr -7,22 2,52 sektor konstruksi construction cns -4,51 3,52 sektor perdagangan, hotel dan restoran trade trd -6,21 3,22 sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi sea transport wtp -2,77 1,16 air transport atp -2,18 0,92 analisis kemungkinan dampak keterlibatan indonesia dalam tpp… (markatin nurul latifah) 69 communication cmn -6,69 3,05 transport nec otp -4,73 1,95 sektor keuangan, persewaan & jasa perusahaan financial services nec ofi -6,72 3,32 insurance isr -6,66 2,07 business service nec obs -5,95 1,38 sektor jasa-jasa public administration/defence/health/education osg -5,99 2,92 dwellings dwe -0,44 -0,44 recreation and other service ros -6,18 2,98 sumber: database gtap versi 8 komodias perubahan agregat ekspor perubahan agregat impor kategorisasi sebelum simulasi setelah simulasi pdr 392,5182 0,8747 d c wht -3,0233 -0,2178 d d gro 0,941 1,2736 d d v_f 1,7322 2,4609 d d osd 3,7302 4,9345 d d c_b 8,4556 -9,6812 #div/0! #div/0! pfb -18,2399 47,6929 d d ocr 7,2803 3,2982 a a ctl 4,3009 6,9733 d d oap -0,7165 3,2304 a a rmk 0,7094 -0,756 d d wol -0,8547 23,3027 d d frs -7,9483 3,4911 c c fsh -1,1875 3,3942 a a coa -0,8406 6,8902 a a oil 0,5028 -1,1296 d d gas -0,6248 -0,4516 a a omn -0,7986 1,1833 a a cmt -2,2475 19,5426 d d omt -10,8804 16,0547 d d vol -3,95 1,3482 a a mil 30,7803 10,0782 d d pcr -1,4625 17,3587 d d sgr 20,5693 11,7801 d d ofd 1,4323 10,4929 a a b_t 33,0107 15,4154 c c tex 20,4628 21,5209 a a wap 81,2903 9,1413 a a lea 25,3178 17,0639 a a lum -3,6962 8,3152 a a ppp -2,1634 2,1533 a a p_c -0,0616 2,0222 d d crp -4,283 10,5426 c c nmm -1,6908 8,8156 c c i_s -3,9761 1,7817 d d nfm -6,1567 0,1308 a a fmp -0,0689 18,1092 d d mvh 2,8574 15,2129 d d otn -4,1952 1,6796 d d ele -4,2517 1,291 c d ome 1,1534 2,0724 d d omf -3,5933 8,9957 c c ely -2,8725 1,2421 #div/0! #div/0! gdt -7,8576 2,5063 c c wtr -7,2191 2,5161 d d cns -4,5075 3,5225 d d 70 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 1, april 2016: 55-70 komodias perubahan agregat ekspor perubahan agregat impor kategorisasi sebelum simulasi setelah simulasi trd -6,2085 3,2175 d d otp -4,7314 1,9535 d d wtp -2,7656 1,1602 c c atp -2,1776 0,9223 d d cmn -6,6882 3,0537 a a ofi -6,7188 3,3182 d d isr -6,6553 2,0669 d d obs -5,9503 1,3777 d d ros -6,1826 2,9849 d d osg -5,9896 2,9184 d d dwe -0,4398 -0,4398 #div/0! #value! template jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 2, oktober 2017, hlm. 116-123 doi: 10.18196/jesp.18.2.4035 purchase intention on halal culinary fast food in yogyakarta nafisah arinilhaq fakultas ekonomi, universitas islam indonesia jalan kaliurang km. 14.5, umbulmartani, ngemplak, sleman, daerah istimewa yogyakarta 55584 correspondence e-mail: arinilhaqnafisah@gmail.com received: june 2017; accepted: october 2017 abstract: the purpose of this research is to identify and determine the influence of halal factors on purchase intention through subjective norms. it also investigated which one factor among all variables that are investigated have the strongest influence. the study was taken from 139 respondents of muslim consumers of halal culinary fast food, kfc. the collected data is measured by five-point likert scale. used structural equation model (sem) with ibm amos version 24 as analytical tool, this research was divided into 5 variables which are measured. the variables are halal awareness, halal certification, halal marketing word of mouth (wom), subjective norms and purchase intention. the measurement is based on theory planned of behavior by ajzen (1991) with modification. result shows that subjective norms has high connection with purchase intention. it caused by indirect effect from halal certification and halal marketing wom. but direct effect from halal awareness and halal marketing wom is not significant. thereby, the study suggests that customers are influenced by subjective norms or muslim consumers’ preference as they are being influenced by halal label or halal certification and also word of mouth marketing system. the study suggests kfc or food manufactures have to pay attention to halal marketing strategy. based from the finding, it can be concluded that, consumer did not look for about halal by themselves, but pay attention to the halal label and wom marketing strategy. keywords: muslim consumers’ preference, halal culinary fast food, purchase intention jel classification: z12, p36 abstrak: tujuan makalah ini adalah untuk mengidentifikasi dan menentukan pengaruh faktor halal terhadap minat membeli melalui norma subjektif. penelitian ini juga meneliti mengenai faktor mana di antara semua variabel yang diteliti memiliki pengaruh yang paling kuat. penelitian tersebut diambil dari 139 responden konsumen muslim dari makanan cepat saji halal, kfc. data yang dikumpulkan diukur dengan 5 skor skala likert. alat analisis yang digunakan adalah structural equation model (sem) dengan ibm amos versi 24. penelitian ini dibagi menjadi 5 variabel yang diukur. variabelnya adalah kesadaran halal, sertifikasi halal, halal marketing word-of-mouth (wom), norma subyektif dan minat membeli. pengukuran berdasarkan teori perilaku terencana oleh ajzen (1991) dengan modifikasi. hasil menunjukkan bahwa norma subjektif memiliki pengaruh yang kuat terhadap minat membeli. hal ini disebabkan oleh efek tidak langsung dari sertifikasi halal dan pemasaran halal wom. tapi efek langsung dari kepedulian terhadap halal dan halal marketing wom tidak signifikan. dengan demikian, penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa pelanggan dipengaruhi oleh norma subyektif atau preferensi konsumen muslim dipengaruhi oleh label halal atau sertifikasi halal dan sistem pemasaran dari mulut ke mulut. studi tersebut menunjukkan bahwa kfc atau produsen makanan harus memperhatikan strategi pemasaran halal. berdasarkan dari temuan itu konsumen tidak mencari halal sendiri, namun lebih mencari label halal dan strategi pemasaran wom. kata kunci: pilihan konsumen muslim, kuliner fastfood halal, minat membeli klasifikasi jel: z12, p36 purchase intention on halal culinary fast food in yogyakarta (nafisah arinilhaq) 117 introduction business competition in the food industry has become a common thing for people in different parts of the world. especially when globalization become a hot issue, as between one country to another countries is getting closer and be able to eliminate the boundaries. it is an opportunity for business enterprises to expand their market. one of the opportunity to expand the market is through food industry. one of the pattern of food industry is characterized by fast food culinary industry growth. as we know franchise has good reputation increase their business in worldwide. in 1990th, there are 350 franchises in america that has 31.000 outlet gotten abroad around the world. their goal is to enhance quality, service and consumer satisfaction (dong, 1992). besides, fast food key strategy is how to influence the market by examine habits, lifestyle, legal issues and tourism. it included halal product (presswire, 2014). indonesia has large muslim population compared with other faiths. according to central bureau of statistics, bps (2015), indonesia has 237 641 326 people around indonesia. it means there is big opportunity to expand market in indonesia. halal issue, is the main issue for muslim consumer in indonesia. according to islamic legal standard (shari’ah), especially in countries with majority muslim population, halal information could be convey through halal label (samori et al., 2014). halal certification is a legal certainty for muslim consumer. it means that consumer gets a guarantee that the products they consume already qualified as halal product (hasan, 2014). not only product value and benefits that could be used, but also the halal and haram. goods must be showed the value of goodness, purity, beauty, and benefits both materially and spiritually. halal authority becomes mandatory for muslim countries (fordebi, 2016). furthermore, halal certificate was born in indonesia around 1992. the first legality developed by the research institute of food, drug, and cosmetics (lppom) and endorsed by majelis ulama indonesia or mui (riaz, 2007). halal certification process product based on islamic shari’ah (cedomir, 2016). consumers expect guaranteed by halal consumption of a product means that he has realized what he needed and wanted. halal awareness should be considered for entrepreneurs in the industry to identify how much consumers know the product is safety or not. unfortunately, there is a lack of knowledge and understanding regarding halal certification (prabowo, 2015). halal marketing is the product information. the information can be positive or negative things. in this case people called word-of-mouth (wom). word-of-mouth (wom) is the communication process from one person to another through verbal communication. wom concept becomes important things in the marketing activity. wom is consisting of negative and positive value. wom can influence others about product by persuasive and credible story (sweeney et al., 2014) there are factors shaped wom, those are expertise, homophile, previous usage and brand equity (sweeney et al., 2014). wom divided into direct and indirect (lang, 2013). besides, subjective norm as intervening variable is affected purchase intention. subjective norm theory and purchase has explained by theory of planned behavior (ajzen, 2005). research method data and source this research was conducted in yogyakarta, indonesia. this study focused on muslim students in yogyakarta. the object of this study is the fast food restaurant that is, kentucky fried chicken (kfc). sampling technique 118 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 2, oktober 2017: 116-123 population and sample the population is a combination of all the elements that have similar characteristics which include a series of rules to marketing research problem (maholta, 2005). the population can also be regarded as the number of individuals all of which are taken from the sample (kartono, 1996). while the sample is a sub group of the population elements are selected to participate in the study (maholta, 2005). in this study, population is student in special region of yogyakarta devided islamic university of indonesia, gadjah mada university, university of muhamadiyah yogyakarta and state yogyakarta university. the technique based from ferdinand augusty theory (2006) in 27 questions measurement : minimal sample  5 x indicator questions  5 x 27 = 135 minimum respondent maximal respondent  10 x indicator questions  10 x 27 = 270 maximal respondentn operational definition of variables measurement is using five types of scale do not agree to disagree. the higher the points then it will show a positive value. at the end of all items rated on a scale of five points from points (1) who has no sense is not very amenable to points (5), which means there is very amenable. likert scale use 5 response categories ranging from strongly agree to strongly setju which requires respondents determine their degree of agreement or disagreement to each of a series of statements about the object (maholta, 2005). halal awareness is consumer awareness of a product kosher. the variables measured were as follows: • muslim halal food consumed • muslim avoid halal food • muslims do not know the food they consume contaminated illicit goods • the ingredients are halal • the product is not in doubt • the product is not contaminated • halal label authorities halal certification halal certification is a formal certificate issued by a particular legal institution, in indonesia is issued by majelis ulama indonesia (mui). the variables are measured as follow, • own label kosher products • label installed in every outlet • label halal into information • not hesitate to buy products halal wom marketing is a marketing technique to promote halal products through wom. the variables measured based on previous research (cloud, 2015) with the modification of the author is as follows: • consider or pay attention to the recommendations given friend • consider or pay attention to the recommendations given family • consider or pay attention to the recommendations given social media • consider or pay attention to the recommendations given promotional sales • consider or pay attention to the recommendations given label halal • products are familiar or known others. subjective norms is a person's perception of something as pengarh influences around him. the variables are measured as follow, • recommendations from friend is more trustworthy • recommendations of the family is more trustworthy • recommendations from social media more credible • follow the advice. purchase intention is the individual interest of a thing. the variables measured based on previous research (tarkiainen and sundqvist, 2005; ajzen, 1975) are as follow, • planning to buy a product • buying back products • recommend products • always buy products • prioritize the product • not interested. analysis tool the analalytical used structural equation model (sem) analysis to analyze data testing, measurement model, structural model, and hyphothesis test with ibm amos version 24. thus, validity and reability model used ibm spss 2.0. purchase intention on halal culinary fast food in yogyakarta (nafisah arinilhaq) 119 result and discussion the result examined by structural equality model (sem) with amos version 24. the result shows: measurement model is a model of measurement for conformance testing or picture. sem model confirming indicators or manifest of a latent variable to two or more variables of the study (sumadi, 2016). the measurement model shows that chi-square = 392.548, probability = 0.00 rmsea = 0.068, gfi = 0.811, agfi = 0.762, tli = 0.900 and cfi = 0.913. the criteria fit so that the whole model can be accepted. in other hand, measurement model from each variable show: figure 1. sem model the next test is a normality test, that is a test that is conducted simultaneously whether a variable is normally distributed or not to limit the significant value of 1% is ± 2.58. testing normality of the figures obtained skewness of a3-e5 -0.065 to 2.18. it is eligible for normality which does not exceed ± 2.58. but there are abnormal data is a1 with -5.618. table 2. outliers testing name x2 p (>0,05) cmin df≤2 rmsea ≤0,08 gfi ≥0,90 tli ≥0,95 cfi ≥0,95 halal awareness 5,295 0,726 0,662 0,00 0,988 1,013 1 halal certification 0,889 0,346 1,036 0 0,997 1,007 1 halal marketingwom 10,283 0,029 2,706 0,111 0,969 0,948 0,979 subjective norms 5,352 0,069 2,676 0,110 0,983 0,950 0,983 purchase intention 0,973 0,404 2,920 0,000 0,991 1,001 1 while testing outliers showed the value mahalonis distance (distance x2) from the lowest and highest 14.947 80.252. this value is still below the critical value x2 = x2α (139-27-1); 0.05 is 124.34 and stated no outliers in the data. the results of hypothesis testing find that there are five hypotheses where 3 of them are have positive and significant effects, while 2 others are insignificant. table 3. estimation and results pengaruh variabel standar koofisien regresi p kesimpulan norms <certification 0,097 0,002 signifikan norms <wom 4,320 *** signifikan intention <norms 3,539 *** signifikan intention <awareness 1,840 0,066 tidak signifikan intention <wom 0,948 0,948 tidak signifikan 120 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 2, oktober 2017: 116-123 a. halal awareness has positive and significant impact on purchase intention. the result shows that, the study of ayyub (2015), umar (2002) and cedomir (2016) that said that the halal awareness have a positive and significant effect on purchase intention is not justified. however, research by awan et al. (2015) that argues that the halal awareness has no influence on purchase intention is proved. even though, the average consumer judging about his interest in the culinary fast food kfc has a high value that is equal to 4.068. b. subjective norms has positive and significant influence on purchase intention. the result is given by sumadi (2016) and alam et al. (2011) that reveals that subjective norms has a positive and significant effect is justified. the judging of consumers regarding on how subjective norms impact on purchase intentions is about 3,856 which shows a high level influence. subjective norm that also consider as preference, also in research fishbein and ajzen (1975) regard as the perception, that is, how other people shaping other’s people behavior and setting someone as a role model as a benchmark for consumers to buy halal products. the attributes that support preferences or subjective norms are halal certification and halal marketing wom. it also indicates that consumers are much more listening to the perception of the nearest and tangible evidence than to seek knowledge about halal concept from their own; c. halal certification has positive and significant impact on subjective norms. the studies of prabowo (2015) and cedomir (2016) regarding halal certification have strong impact on purchase intention is justified. awan et al. (2015) argues that, the purchase intention of consumer rise if a product has a halal label and certificate is also proved. halal for muslims is obligatory. the law of halal as affirmed in the qur'ān, surah al-baqarah (2): verse 168, اا ب ِ ّ ي ًلا طَ ََل ِض َح َْر ا فِي اْْل مَّ لُىا ِم ا الىَّاُس كُ يُّهَ َ ا أ يَ اِن ۚ طَ يْ اِت الشَّ َى طُ َّبِعُىا ُخ ت َ ًَل ت يه َو بِ دُوٌّ ُم مْ عَ كُ َّهُ لَ و إِ “o mankind, eat of the lawful and good from what is contained in the earth, and do not follow the steps of satan; because the real devil is a clear enemy.” from the discussion above indicates that the halal certification halal certification become mandatory for every business to ensure the protection and get halal label. because in essence halal certificate is obtained from the physical form of official procedures issued by mui that shows wether a product is halal or not. from these studies show that the halal certificate strongly influence consumer preferences before they are interested in a product; d. halal marketing wom has insignificant impact on subjective norms, this result based on the study of malik (2015) and awan et al. (2015), that shows that halal marketing wom has no significant influence on the subjective norm. there are four constructs in wom marketing halal variable with the average consumer ratings regarding his interest in the culinary fast food kfc has a high value. this indicates that the most dominant factor in driving consumer purchase interest is influenced by marketing halal according to awan et al. (2011). e. halal marketing wom has insignificant influence on purchase intention. this result against the study of siala (2012) and nature (2011) that shows that, halal marketing wom affect the purchase intention as evidenced by the judging of 4,072 consumers that included in a high category of consumer. from this finding, it indicates that someone would be interested in purchasing of a product with the effect of word-of-mouth particularly in the surrounding areas. therefore, the word of mouth marketing methods is still need to be purchase intention on halal culinary fast food in yogyakarta (nafisah arinilhaq) 121 considered as one factor to boost the purchase intention of customers. conclusion from the result, it can be concluded that, almost all variables are significant to purchase intention except awareness variable. awareness also no additional point on another calculate estimation which make awareness is not important thing. there are two variables that have the strongest effect and give positive effects, they are halal certification and halal marketing wom system. therefore, manager or businessman, they have to pay more attention to halal certification and wom if they want to expand their market especially for muslim consumers. based on the goodness of fit in the model, the study has met the criteria, although with a low probability of that value chi-square = 392.548, probability = 0.00 rmsea = 0.068, gfi = 0.811, agfi = 0.762, tli = 0.900 and cfi = 0.913. from the goodness of ssr assessment fit can be concluded the research model is accepted or included in the requirements. the hypothesis testing finds that, from five hypotheses are tested, they show that 3 of them are proved significant or have positive effects, while 2 of them are not significant. in summary: [1] the research model is received and fit. [2] halal awareness has no significant effect on purchase intention. it was in line with result by alam et al. (2011). [3] subjective norms have significant impact on purchase intention. it is indicated that, if subjective norms increases, purchase intention for a halal product will increase. [4] halal certification has significant impact on the subjective norms. this indicates when the halal certification increases, subjective norms for a product increases. 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(2016), “factors affecting muslim student awareness of halal product in yogyakarta, indonesia,” international review of management and marketing, vol. 6: pp. 27-31. zailani, s, et al., (2015), “drivers of halal orientation strategy among halal food firms,” british food journal, vol. 117, no. 8: pp. 143-216. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 23 nomor 1, april 2022 article type: research paper do corporate social responsibilities support its financial performance? evidence of the listed firms in vietnam tran dang thanh minh1,2*, pham thi thu hong3, and le thi anh4 abstract: in the latest decades, corporate social responsibilities (csr) are incrementally noticed in emerging countries regarding to the surge of globalization and the advance of social concerns. however, there exist opposing arguments on how csr practices influence a firm’s financial performance (cfp), either in theoretical or empirical perspectives, causing many managers’ hesitation in csr engagement. this study, therefore, examines the impacts of csr on cfp, considering the individual effect of each csr endeavor by using the data from listed firms’ financial statements during the period 2015-2019 and panel regression analysis methods. the findings reveal inconstant effects of different csr activities on cfp. specifically, a firm’s fulfillment of shareholders’ and customers’ interests contributes to raise its profitability, while its engagement in the benefits of employees and creditors causes a reduction in financial returns. interestingly, the correlations between firms’ responsibilies towards regulators and suppliers and cfp are statistically insignificant. furthermore, we make pairwise marginal comparisons to identify the distinctions of csr-cfp relations across industries. the results only indicate that listed firms in utilities sector have the lower level of csr intensity than those in consumer discretionary and consumer staples sectors. the implications and limitations are also discussed in this study. keywords: corporate financial performance (cfp); corporate social responsibilities (csr); regression models; vietnam jel classification: g30; m14; o16 introduction since the early age of business, profit maximization for the owners, then shareholders, is the mere goal of every firm, while actions towards nonowners’ benefits is primely considered as a “doctrine” or public deception (friedman, 1970). however, followed by the rapid change in the global business environment and the social awareness of responsible investment and consumption, corporate social responsibilities (csr) is raised as the new trend of business strategies (carroll, 2015; low, 2016). these activities are believed not only to fulfill the stakeholders’ expectations but also to help firms gain certain advantages (freeman & dmytriyev, 2017). nonetheless, academic arguments over the relation between csr and corporate financial performance (cfp) are still inconsistent (orlitzky, schmidt, & rynes, 2003), causing senior managers’ hesitations to activate their social schemes (carroll, 2015). affiliation: 1 faculty of finance and accounting, saigon university, ho chi minh city, vietnam 2 faculty of finance and banking, university of economics and law, vietnam national university ho chi minh city, vietnam 3 national institute for finance, ministry of finance, vietnam 4 faculty of finance – accounting, post and telecommunications institute of technology, hanoi, vietnam *correspondence: tdtminh@sgu.edu.vn this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v23i1.14187 citation: minh, t. d. t., hong, p. t. t., & anh, l. t. (2022). do corporate social responsibilities support its financial performance? evidence of the listed firms in vietnam. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 23(1), 1-20. article history received: 07 mar 2022 revised: 18 mar 2022 accepted: 22 mar 2022 https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?user=jxnbhgiaaaaj&hl=en&oi=ao http://taichinhketoan.sgu.edu.vn/web/ http://taichinhketoan.sgu.edu.vn/web/ http://taichinhketoan.sgu.edu.vn/web/ https://en.uel.edu.vn/ https://en.uel.edu.vn/ https://en.uel.edu.vn/ https://en.uel.edu.vn/ https://mof.gov.vn/webcenter/portal/btcen/pages_r/lk_website/nationalinstituteforfinance https://mof.gov.vn/webcenter/portal/btcen/pages_r/lk_website/nationalinstituteforfinance https://portal.ptit.edu.vn/ https://portal.ptit.edu.vn/ https://portal.ptit.edu.vn/ https://portal.ptit.edu.vn/ https://portal.ptit.edu.vn/ mailto:tdtminh@sgu.edu.vn http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/14187 https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v23i1.14187&domain=pdf https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ minh, hong, & anh do corporate social responsibilities support its financial performance? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 2 theoretically, the csr concept is primarily based on the stakeholder theory, supporting the positive effect of social responsibilities on cfp. despite a long record of literature including theoretical reviews, empirical studies and meta-analyses, the conclusions on certain relations between csr and cfp remain inconclusive (aras, aybars, & kutlu, 2010; friede, busch, & bassen, 2015). most of the previous studies support that csr activities can harmonize the conflicts of interest between a firm’s internal and external stakeholders (bahadorestani, naderpajouh, & sadiq, 2020), prevent the firm from negative information, attract more goodwill customers and investors, increasing its revenues to effectively offset csr-relating costs, as well as its market value and future growth (freeman & dmytriyev, 2017; madueño, jorge, conesa, & martínez-martínez, 2016; preston & o’bannon, 1997; soana, 2011). however, some authors claim that a firm’s engagement in csr actions causes additional expenses that immediately reduce its profitability, lessen shareholders’ wealth and push the firm into economic disadvantages compared to its competitors (friedman, 1970; mcguire, sundgren, & schneeweis, 1988). other studies argue the correlation between csr and cfp is unstable, even insignificant, due to the confounding effects of many moderating factors and research methods (dobre, stanila, & brad, 2015; han, kim, & yu, 2016; soana, 2011; yoon & chung, 2018). since the last decades, csr are officially implemented and disclosed in developed economies (belal, 2001). then, the globalization progress and the extension of multinational enterprises has encouraged the implementation and standardization of socially responsible activities in less developed markets. however, in these countries in general and vietnam in particular, the stakeholders’ interest of csr activities is still fragmented; the question of whether firms can become socially responsible, and whether these responsibilities create a positive spillover to their performance in emerging economies remains unreciprocated (birch & moon, 2004; jamali & karam, 2016). on the one hand, this discrepancy is arisen from many differences in institutional, cultural and socio-economic backgrounds (al-mamun & seamer, 2021; auer & schuhmacher, 2016). on the other hand, the majority of previous studies merely refer to csr as a single measure without intensive considerations (busch & friede, 2018). several authors tend to use available indexes aggregated by third-party organizations, e.g., toxics release inventory (tri) by epa (us), esg scores by thomson reuters or bloomberg, or kld 400 social index by msci, which cover a minor portion of corporates in developing economies (belal, 2001; ho & yekini, 2014; ngoc, 2018). accordingly, the economic theories and models, research findings and policy implications emerged from developed countries may be not well compactible to other countries (sardana, gupta, kumar, & terziovski, 2020). besides, the others have focused on a few of csr aspects, e.g., ausat (2018) examines the influence of some corporate governance variables on islamic banks’ financial performance, ho and yekini (2014) investigate the bidirectional relation between csr disclosure and cfp of 20 largest financial firms in vietnam, ngoc (2018) finds the effect of csr disclosure on credit institutions’ financial performance in vietnam. to our best knowledge, no previous studies has focused on the thorough relationship between individual csr variables and listed firms’ financial performance in case of vietnam. hence, to provide an empirical framework for the corporates’ making-decision process in vietnam, this study makes a deep investigation on the correlation between csr practice minh, hong, & anh do corporate social responsibilities support its financial performance? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 3 be desired to be a good corporate-citizen be expected to be ethical be required to obey the law be required to be profitable and cfp. the study uses the financial data of listed companies on ho chi minh stock exchange (hsx) during the period between 2016 and 2019 to consider the individual influences of distinctive csr activities on cfp, and examines the variety of this relation across different industries. subsequently, the paper makes great contributions by identifying the insightful influences of various csr practices on cfp in the specific context of vietnam, which does not exist in previous studies. the remaining of study is structured as follows: section 2 reviews the theoretical backgrounds, previous studies on the csrcfp relation, and develops hypotheses. section 3 and 4 exhibit the research methods, empirical results, and discussions. finally, the conclusions and limitations are presented in section 5. corporate social responsibilities (csr) concept in contemporary society, as the business environment evolves with globalization, advanced technology, and customers’ attention to ethical product standards beyond the quality of goods and services, csr has integrated into business activities as a multidimensional disciplinary subject (low, 2016). although the csr concept has emerged since 1950s and gone globally now, it lacks an acceptable and unique, or official, definition (rahman, 2011). according to many scholars, e.g., carroll (1995, 2015), jamali and karam (2016), rahman (2011), csr’s interpretations and expressions vary across the local context of social, economic, political, environmental issues and time periods. in the very first period, csr primarily consists of a firm’s economic contributions such as that of employment, payrolls , and social audits (carroll, 1995). then, it is developed into a comprehensive concept that embraces not only economic obligations but also legal, ethical, and philanthropic responsibilities (carroll, 1979), and well known as the “csr pyramid” model (see figure 1). basically, the firm’s social responsibilities involve the simultaneous fulfillment of the society’s entire expectations of economic, legal, ethical, and discretionary/philanthropic issues at a certain point of time (carroll, 1995). figure 1 the “csr pyramid” source: aggregated from the study of carroll (1979, 1995, & 2015) philanthropic responsibility ethical responsibility legal responsibility economic responsibility minh, hong, & anh do corporate social responsibilities support its financial performance? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 4 subsequently, modern firms are held responsible for the consequences of their actions, and under pressure to integrate stakeholders’ values and concerns into their business strategies that ultimately determine their performance (carroll, 2015; gond, el akremi, igalens, & swaen, 2018; porter & kramer, 2011). since freeman’s book “strategic management: a stakeholder approach” in 1984, stakeholders are defined as any subjects relevant to a firm’s target-reaching process, typically including employees, suppliers, financiers (owners, investors), customers, communities, and regulators; subsequently, stakeholders’ active participations are regarded as the major component of firms’ csr engagement, and simultaneously, an integral part of firms’ performance, which makes the stakeholder theory the most essential and widely used foundation (rahman, 2011). the csr-cfp relationship and hypothesis development the investigation of the potential relationship between csr and cfp remains its attractiveness globally over fifty years, creating a long record of empirical studies based on various theoretical frameworks (gond et al., 2018). yet, the conclusions of csr-cfp relation remain obscure and conflicting (friede et al., 2015; lópez-arceiz, bellostas, & rivera, 2017). on the one hand, the stakeholder theory basically supports that the firm’s overall responsibilities are to enhance relationships and create value for all of its stakeholders (freeman & dmytriyev, 2017). along with the development of business environment and complimentary concepts, e.g., business ethics, corporate citizenship, stakeholder management, sustainability, or creating shared value (carroll, 2015; porter & kramer, 2011), the traditional stakeholder theory has been decomposed into alternative aspects – normative, descriptive, and instrumental perspectives. according to donaldson and preston (1995), although all of these are nested within each other, the normative aspect is the central core of the stakeholder theory, suggesting that firms should treat all of stakeholders equally regardless of their prominence. this perspective explains why stakeholder management may casually relate to corporate performance, encouraging managers to take care of all stakeholders’ concerns instead of the firm’s owners solely. however, due to limited corporate resources, managers find it difficult to implement in practice, especially if stakeholders’ interests are not consonant (fernando & lawrence, 2014). conversely, the descriptive, or managerial, perspective claims that firm managers should spend more attempts to accomplish the expectations of prioritized stakeholders who provide and control critical resources. yet, the key issue of this perspective is how to classify stakeholder groups and identify how much interest the firm’s managers should response (fernando & lawrence, 2014). the instrumental perspective is more balancing with the assertion that the satisfaction of all stakeholders is a useful means for firms to achieve their business objectives. specifically, a firm’s performance and value rely on how its managers deal with operating costs, not only arrived from explicit contracts such as wages and investors’ earnings but also implicit accords such as that of product/service quality as well (cochran & wood, 1984; mcguire et al., 1988). this argument implies that once the benefits of any stakeholders who have implicit compromises with the firm are damaged, they possibly try minh, hong, & anh do corporate social responsibilities support its financial performance? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 5 to transfer implicit terms into explicit agreements which are usually more costly. hence, the instrument aspect of stakeholder theory can explain how the firm’s capacity of balancing the interests of all stakeholder parties creates competitive advantages compared to its rivals and leads to higher financial performance (li et al., 2017; orlitzky et al., 2003). consequently, it is more commonly applied in literature (aras et al., 2010; prasetya, saraswati, & ghofar, 2017; fernando & lawrence, 2014; madueño et al., 2016; mcwilliams & siegel, 2000; salehi, dashtbayaz, & khorashadizadeh, 2018). on the other hand, neoclassical views claim the negative influence of csr on cfp. friedman (1970) denotes that a firm’s engagement in social commitments involves both financial and non-financial resources (e.g., human resource) that can be used for investment purposes. also, the increase of social activities (e.g., charity, environmental campaigns, community development) can cause additional expenses, and lead the firm’s managers to failed resource allocations, which push the firm to an economic disadvantage, e.g., a trade-off situation, compared to less socially active firms, negatively impacting the firm’s profits and owners’ benefits (preston & o’bannon, 1997; waddock & graves, 1997). although csr can be used to prevent or diminish negative impacts of a firm’s operations, profit maximization is still the firm’s vital target, and csr practice intentionally reduces the profits that must be available to other stakeholders such as its owners and investors (lópez-arceiz et al., 2017; lyon, lu, shi, & yin, 2013). friedman (1970) also emphasizes that it is wrong for managers to exercise social responsibilities using the firm’s resources, because these are other people’s money and must have been spent on customer service, employees’ welfares or shareholders’ dividends. this mistake may cause the firm to lose fundamental supports to enhance its financial performance, and incurred expenses such as agency costs possibly outweighs the benefits from csr practice (mcwilliams & siegel, 2000). moreover, the reflection of a firm’s profitability in csr disclosures is restricted (gallardo-vázquez, gallardo-vázquez, barroso-méndez, pajuelo-moreno,& sánchez-meca, 2019). in practice, csr aspects are quite subjective and relied on stakeholders’ cognitions, thus, information may be confusing, biased, and actually manipulated by a firm’s managers to deceive its stakeholders (kim & lyon, 2015; zhao et al., 2018). besides, some studies find mixed csr-cfp relations. specifically, mcguire et al. (1988), dobre et al. (2015) and yoon and chung (2018) find the nonlinear relations, nollet, filis, and mitrokostas (2016) find both linear and non-linear relations, while aras et al. (2010), soana (2011) and han et al. (2016) indicate an insignificant correlation between them. according to many scholars, these conflicting findings are caused by different methodologies, such as different measures (e.g., accounting-based or market-based indicators, or even adjusted risk) (waddock & graves, 1997); dissimilar identifications of stakeholders, perspectives, time periods, sample size, and selected variables (dobre et al., 2015; mcwilliams & siegel, 2000; su, liu, & teng, 2020); divergent analysis methods (e.g., content analysis, regression models, event studies) (crifo, diaye, & oueghlissi, 2017; mcguire et al., 1988; taliento, favino & netti, 2019; zhao et al., 2018). moreover, the majority of previous studies that have proved the positive relation csr and cfp focuses on developed countries (belal, 2001; friede et al., 2015), in which the ethical, cultural, and business norms, as well as stakeholders’ cognitions and interests, are far apart from minh, hong, & anh do corporate social responsibilities support its financial performance? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 6 emerging countries (birch & moon, 2004; carroll, 2015; garcia, mendes-da-silva, & orsato, 2017; jamali & karam, 2016). hence, we doubt about this conclusion in the context of emerging countries for two reasons. firstly, corporates operating in developing markets do not have many options for financing, partly because of the immature capital market in these countries, which may generate an obvious trade-off between csr and other lucrative activities (garcia et al., 2017). secondly, along with economic issues, institutional and cultural background of a country noticeably influence the nature and degree of csr practices (jamali & karam, 2016). subsequently, we do not expect csr practices to enhance the firms’ profitability operating in vietnam. the first hypothesis is built as following: h1: there is a significantly negative effect of the firm’s social responsibilities on financial performance in vietnam. to capture the individual influence of each csr practice on cfp, the following hypotheses are put forward as constituents of h1: h1a: the firm’s responsibility towards regulators has a significantly negative effect on financial performance in vietnam. h1b: the firm’s responsibility towards employees has a significantly negative effect on financial performance in vietnam. h1c: the firm’s responsibility towards suppliers has a significantly negative effect on financial performance in vietnam. h1d: the firm’s responsibility towards shareholders has a significantly negative effect on financial performance in vietnam. h1e: the firm’s responsibility towards creditors has a significantly negative effect on financial performance in vietnam. h1f: the firm’s responsibility towards customers has a significantly negative effect on financial performance in vietnam. furthermore, the samples in these studies include various sectors, while csr activities vary remarkably across industries and markets (soana, 2011; su et al., 2020). particularly, among numerous firm-specific indicators used as the moderating factor for csr-cfp relation in empirical studies, e.g., firm’s size, leverage, liquidity (delmas, nairn-birch, & lim, 2015; dobre et al., 2015), r&d intensity, corporate ownership (aras et al., 2010; mcwilliams & siegel, 2000), financial risks (mcguire et al., 1988), growth opportunities (adair & adaskou, 2015), operating industry, visibility, reputation, income diversification, business cycle… (busch & friede, 2018), it is important to take industry categories into consideration, because costs and benefits relating to csr performance in different minh, hong, & anh do corporate social responsibilities support its financial performance? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 7 industries may be noticeably distinguished from each other (dobre et al., 2015; lin, chang, & dang, 2015). for example, firms in sensitive industries such as mining, petrol, pulp and paper, steel, chemical, and pharmaceutical production are more likely to perform superior csr practice, e.g., on employees’ health and safety, disclosures of their pollution control, compared to other non-sensitive industries, to avoid moral debates and political pressures (albertini, 2013; garcia et al., 2017). therefore, this study posits the second hypothesis: h2: the effects of csr on cfp are dissimilar between different industries. research method data this paper investigates the relationship between csr and cfp, considering the moderating effect of industry. also, given that csr is a multi-facet concept, and the effects of one aspect sometimes deactivate opposing effects of another aspect (nollet et al., 2016), the analysis should contain disaggregated proxies. however, previous studies in vietnam, in our best knowledge, have considered csr as a single variable. for example, in the studies of ho and yekini (2014) and ngoc (2018), corporates’ csr practices are merely represented by “csr disclosure”, obtained from their annual reports via content analysis, which cannot reflect various dimensions of this concept. thus, this study decomposes the general csr concept into the firm’s responsibilities towards the regulators, employees, suppliers, shareholders, creditors, and customers, as suggested by donaldson and preston (1995). data is extracted from the annual financial statements of the non-financial firms listed on ho chi minh stock exchange (hsx) during the period between 2015 and 2019. although there are three official stock exchanges in vietnam, including hsx, hnx (hanoi stock exchange), and upcom (unlisted public company market), the hsx has higher standardized regulations for listing, which makes disclosed information more available and credible. the study doesn’t take financial firms into account due to their distinct characteristics, as well as all firms’ performance since 2020 to exclude potential impacts of the covid-19 pandemic. additionally, the listed firms are filtered by the completeness of disclosed information, then categorized by industry based on gics® (global industry classification standards), a standard for industry classification developed by msci and s&p dow jones indexes, and applied on hsx since january 25th 2016. after filtering, the number of remaining listed firms is 162, which is shown in table 1. minh, hong, & anh do corporate social responsibilities support its financial performance? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 8 table 1 number of listed firms by industry during the period 2015-2019 industries the number of firms listed on hsx the number of selected firms in the sample consumer discretionary 34 25 consumer staples 35 24 energy 9 6 industrials 87 57 materials 51 27 utilities 18 12 information technology 6 4 health care 9 7 total 249 162 regression model this section describes the empirical method used to examine the effect of csr on cfp. specifically, our linear regression model for panel data is as follows: yit = α + β1taxit + β2wageit + β3aptit + β4divit + β5icrit + β6oexit + β7sizeit + β8levit + εit for i = 1, 2, …, n, and t = from 1 to 5 where yit is the measure for financial performance of the firm i in the fiscal year t. taxit, wageit, aptit, divit, icrit, oexit respectively represent the firm’s social responsibilities towards regulators, employees, suppliers, shareholders, creditors, and customers. sizeit and levit are control variables that have been justified by prior studies. the description of each variable is shown below: various indicators have been used as proxies for corporate performance in empirical quantitative studies, mainly subdivided into accounting-based (e.g., roa, roe) or marketbased indicators (e.g., tobin’s q, stock returns, sales growth) (albertini, 2013; aras et al., 2010; bergmann, 2016). although each group of measures have different advantages and drawbacks, the accounting-based indicators, calculated from financial statements, can represent a firm’s financial performance and internal power more precisely (cochran & wood, 1984), and have stronger linkage to csr practice than the others (busch & friede, 2018; orlitzky et al., 2003). thus, this study uses roa (returns on assets) as the proxy for cfp. tax intensity (tax) is calculated by the ratio of the current corporate income tax expense to the earnings before interests and taxes (ebit) in the fiscal year t. it is noticeable that, according to vietnamese accounting standards (vas), the current corporate income tax expense is not merely set by the fixed corporate income tax rate (20% in particular), but also adjusted by individual state’s preferential policies and sanction regulations. thus, this amount can reflect a corporate’s compliance level to state-related obligations and its relations with municipalities. the municipal services are primely relied on businessrelated taxes, thus, when the public budget is ensured, the government can provide minh, hong, & anh do corporate social responsibilities support its financial performance? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 9 better public services, e.g., improved infrastructure, for business development. simultaneously, the firm’s compliance to regulations can enhance its legitimacy and reputation, contributing to reduce idiosyncratic risks and attract responsible investors (garcia et al., 2017). wage ratio (wage) is computed by the ratio of the wages amount paid to a firm’s employees to ebit in the fiscal year t. human resource is one of the most critical factors of firms’ sustainable development (ruiz-pérez, lleo, & ormazabal, 2021). the improvement of corporate welfares, directly on wages and salaries, not only enhances the current employees’ productivity and loyalty, but also attracts high-qualified personnel with improved internal making-decision process (salehi et al., 2018; tseng et al., 2020). accounts payable turnover (apt) is measured by the ratio of total supply purchases to the sum of average accounts payable and average accrued liabilities in the fiscal year t, as suggested by ilter (2020). this measure reflects a firm’s short-term liquidity, which is not only beneficial for daily business activities through discounts for early payment, but also useful to develop long-lasting relationships between the firm and its suppliers. also, chen, karim, and tao (2021) indicate that the integration of suppliers’ concerns into a firm’s csr strategies can effectively lessen its financial risk such as stock price crash. dividends per share (div) is identified as the total dividends paid out to common shares divided by the average number of outstanding common shares in the fiscal year t. on the one hand, this ratio represents the firm’s primary target – benefits maximization for current shareholders – to encourage shareholders’ active participation and loyalty as well (lyon et al., 2013). on the other hand, it is regarded as a signal of the firm’s growth capacity to attract potential investors, ensuring the sustainable development (kanakriyah, 2020). interest coverage ratio (icr) is calculated as ebit divided by the total interest expense in the fiscal year t. basically, this ratio demonstrates how well a firm can pay interest due on its outstanding debt. the higher ratio reflects the firm’s enhanced financial assurance, enhancing its credibility and pleasant relationships with external financiers that possibly reduce its capital expenditures in the future (salehi et al., 2018). operating expenses ratio (oex) is measured by the ratio of operating expenses to net operating returns in the fiscal year t. according to vas, a corporate’s operating expenses refer to selling, general and administrative expenses (sg&a) extracted from the business results report, which comprise costs directly or indirectly costs related to sales activities, e.g., advertising, marketing, promotion, distributing costs, customer services, as well as wages and benefits for salespeople, administrators, and management staffs who are not involved in manufacturing and other production tasks; net operating returns is calculated by subtracting financial returns and operating expenses from the gross returns of sales. offering more benefits for consumers delivers higher operating expenses (mcguire et al., 1988), yet customers’ confidence can help the firm to improve its reputation and expand its market share, which contribute to increase its revenues that effectively offset additional costs (salehi et al., 2018). similarly, seetharaman, moorthy, saravanan, and minh, hong, & anh do corporate social responsibilities support its financial performance? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 10 pitta (2016) prove that sg&a expenditure has strongly positive impacts on sales revenue, gross margins and profits. firm size (size) is the common control variable used in empirical studies relating to corporate financial management, and estimated by the natural logarithm of total assets at the end of the fiscal year t, as suggested by salehi et al. (2018) and kanakriyah (2020). larger firms are more apparent to the society than smaller firms, thus, tend to disclose more information regarding socially responsible behaviors (aras et al., 2010; waddock & graves, 1997). also, they are believed to have less default risks than smaller firms due to the capacity of income diversification, lower transaction and disclosing costs, which are favorable conditions to increase their financial performance (adair & adaskou, 2015). financial leverage (lev) is represented by the ratio of the firm’s total liabilities to total assets in the fiscal year t. on the one hand, external financing helps the firm to raise adequate capital amount for investment to boost its returns. on the other hand, high leverage implies higher unsystematic risks in the future, e.g., liquidity or default risk, which firm managers must take into considerations during decision-making process (aras et al., 2010). this study also examines potential differences in the nexus between csr and cfp across sectors. several empirical evidence claim that the estimation model of the csr-cfp relation may be mis-specified without the industry, because firms’ operating costs and benefits relevant to csr practice may be remarkably distinctive among different sectors (dobre et al., 2015). thus, a comparison by industry should be included in this analysis. εit is the error term that contains both idiosyncratic error term uit and unobserved firmspecific characteristics σit, such that εit = uit + σit. depending on the assumption on the unobserved firm-specific characteristics term, σit , we can run two different linear regressions with the panel data. under the assumption that σit varies across time, we run a random effects model (rem). in case that σit does not change across time, we run a fixed effects model (fem). no correlations are found between independent variables and the error term to exclude endogenous problems (garcia et al., 2017). we also run the pooled ordinary least squares (ols) regression, taking into account the specific time effect, because the pooled ols does not distinguish a firm’s characteristics and its time trend (nollet et al., 2016). result and discussion before performing a multivariate analysis to test the hypotheses afore posited, the study provides the descriptive statistics in table 2. in the panel a, the overall average values, and standard deviations of all six variables – tax, wage, apt, div, icr, and oex – suggest a significant discrepancy of social activities between firms in the sample. for example, firms’ responsibility towards the government through tax intensity (tax) can vary between -0.05 (the firm doesn’t have to pay corporate income tax in a fiscal year) to 0.88, with the average value of 0.15; firms’ responsibility towards their shareholders through minh, hong, & anh do corporate social responsibilities support its financial performance? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 11 cash dividends (div), with the mean at -847.05, ranges from vnd -36,271.64 per share up to vnd 16,420.51 per share. however, when it comes to the comparison by industry (panel b), statistic values of every single variable (means and standard deviations) are somehow consistent across sectors. thus, the study expects that the variation of csr practices happens among listed firms within the same activity sector, not across different industries. in the matrix of the bivariate correlations, it is expected that the relationship between csr practice and cfp is quite mixed. specifically, most of a firm’s socially responsible actions, tax, apt, div, icr and oex, have positive effects on cfp, with positive correlation coefficients. wage is the only variable that create negative influence on financial performance. the bivariate coefficients between cfp and firm-specific variables, size and lev, are also negative, suggesting a negative linkage between them during the sample period. the impact of chosen independent variables on cfp is estimated by three different methods (ols, fem, rem), which is shown in table 3. to identify the estimation method suitable for the regression model, the study uses the hausman’s and breusch & pagan’s test. we find no evidence of a correlation between independent variables and the error term, demonstrating no problems of endogeneity. specifically, hausman’s test (p > 0.1) accept the null hypothesis that the unobserved heterogeneity is uncorrelated with the independent variables, implying that the model of factors obtained from random-effects regression is consistent; breusch and pagan lagrangian multiplier test (p < 0.01) rejects the adjustment of pooled ols, suggesting the suitability of rem. therefore, in this study, the regression model controlling for random effects gives more consistent parameters, indicating the random effects model is the better option. table 2 descriptive statistics panel a: descriptive statistics and correlation matrix variabl es obs mean std. dev. min max roa tax wage apt div icr oex size le v roa 81 0 0.08 0.08 -0.0013 0.78 1 tax 81 0 0.15 0.08 -0.05 0.88 0.15 1 1 wag e 74 3 1.19 1.23 0.02 10.77 0.33 3 0.13 4 1 apt 80 9 38.54 310.92 0.39 8,381.5 7 0.08 8 0.06 4 0.01 9 1 div 81 0 847.0 5 3,290.4 8 36,271. 64 16,420. 51 0.17 5 0.03 4 0.06 1 0.056 1 icr 73 1 338.6 2 3,500.3 7 -24.59 77,002. 67 0.23 9 0.05 1 0.05 9 0.000 1 0.02 9 1 oex 81 0 0.21 44.41 1,074.9 5 121.83 0.02 6 0.00 3 0.02 8 0.003 0.00 9 0.00 1 1 size 81 0 27.67 1.18 25.57 31.91 0.03 8 0.13 9 0.20 0 0.069 0.19 4 0.02 8 0.04 9 1 lev 81 0 0.46 0.21 0.03 0.97 0.53 9 0.20 6 0.19 5 0.126 0.03 5 0.12 9 0.04 3 0.28 5 1 minh, hong, & anh do corporate social responsibilities support its financial performance? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 12 table 2 descriptive statistics (cont’) panel b: descriptive statistics segregated by industry variable industry consumer discretionary consumer staples energy health care industrials information technology materials utilities roa obs 125 120 30 35 285 20 135 60 mean 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.09 0.06 0.08 0.09 0.08 std. dev. 0.09 0.09 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.04 0.09 0.04 tax obs 125 120 30 35 285 20 135 60 mean 0.17 0.12 0.17 0.19 0.15 0.11 0.16 0.15 std. dev. 0.07 0.08 0.05 0.08 0.09 0.07 0.07 0.08 wage obs 114 112 30 35 245 15 135 57 mean 1.28 1.22 1.28 0.92 1.34 0.81 1.20 0.57 std. dev. 1.14 1.22 0.69 0.41 1.46 0.35 1.25 0.65 apt obs 125 120 30 35 285 20 134 60 mean 61.69 19.41 10.51 8.77 22.29 10.45 95.87 18.53 std. dev. 219.85 20.25 6.22 4.72 75.06 11.19 724 21.08 div obs 125 120 30 35 285 20 135 60 mean -720.00 -1,336.47 -286.24 2,316.58 -576.25 -2,472.8 -657.77 -726.33 std. dev. 2,259.48 5,008.27 2,065.09 7,832.58 2,218.34 2,775.9 2,784.31 1,614.25 icr obs 109 110 28 30 262 20 119 53 mean 633.42 784.30 7.29 62.92 47.71 21.42 637.36 25.48 std. dev. 4,006.94 7,340.01 5.95 89.58 197.47 44.9 3,255.62 45.25 oex obs 125 120 30 35 285 20 135 60 mean -11.36 4.58 1.26 5.35 2.01 2.39 0.89 1.27 std. dev. 111.21 10.96 1.87 8.62 8.05 4.34 6.05 2.86 size obs 125 120 30 35 285 20 135 60 mean 27.18 28.07 28.33 27.92 27.73 27.76 27.32 27.92 std. dev. 1.06 1.32 1.58 0.74 0.97 1.75 1.25 0.99 lev obs 125 120 30 35 285 20 135 60 mean 0.42 0.45 0.53 0.39 0.53 0.43 0.39 0.45 std. dev. 0.22 0.18 0.13 0.25 0.21 0.14 0.21 0.18 note: roa = returns on assets; tax = tax intensity; apt = accounts payable turnover; div = dividends per share; icr = interest coverage ratio; oex = operating expenses ratio; size = firm’s size; lev = firm’s financial leverage. table 3 csr-cfp relationship in linear regression models ols fem rem (robust) const. -0.094 (0.293) -0.441 (0.039) -0.099 (0.461) tax 0.017 (0.537) -0.004 (0.899) 0.015 (0.578) wage -0.014*** (0.000) -0.013*** (0.000) -0.015*** (0.000) apt 0.00002 (0.257) 0.00002 (0.202) 0.00002 (0.307) div 19.905*** (0.000) 0.0001*** (0.000) 20.340** (0.016) icr -2.928** (0.027) 4.036 (0.421) -3.119* (0.085) oex 0.00002 (0.511) 13.436 (0.822) 0.00002*** (0.005) size 0.0103*** (0.002) 0.023*** (0.004) 0.011** (0.029) lev -0.185*** (0.000) -0.186*** (0.000) -0.182*** (0.000) n (obs) 665 665 665 r-squared 0.3836 0.3032 0.3922 p-value 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 notes: roa = returns on assets; tax = tax intensity; apt = accounts payable turnover; div = dividends per share; icr = interest coverage ratio; oex = operating expenses ratio; size = firm’s size; lev = firm’s financial leverage. ols: ordinary least squares model; fem: fixed effects model; rem (robust): random effects model with robust standard errors. it is identified that rem is the most suitable for the sample (665 observations of 154 listed firms over the 5-year period). hausman’s test = 10.54 (p-value = 0.1037). breusch-pagan’s test = 257.92 (p-value = 0.0000). p-value in parentheses: * p < 0.1; ** p < 0.05; *** p < 0.01. minh, hong, & anh do corporate social responsibilities support its financial performance? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 13 the regression models demonstrate inconsistent impacts of different csr practices, as well as corporate characteristics, on cfp. firstly, wage, representing the firm’s responsibility towards employees, is negatively correlated to the firm’s financial performance in all three models at 1% significance level. besides, the firm’s assurance of interest expense (icr) has a negative nexus with cfp at 5% significance level in pooled ols model, and 10% in rem. these results are consistent with neoclassical views, which regard social performance as the cause of excessive costs and resource misallocations that may harm the firm’s profits and its owners’ wealth (friedman, 1970; lyon et al., 2013; mcguire et al., 1988; nollet et al., 2016). conversely, the ratio of pay-out dividends to common shares (div) has a significantly positive linkage with cfp, at the significance level of 1% in pooled ols and fe model, and 5% in rem. also, the coefficient of oex is 0.00002 in the robust re model, which indicates a statistically, but faintly, positive correlation between a firm’s concerns to customers and its profitability at the 1% significance level. these results support two parallel sides: a firm’s fulfillment of shareholders’ interests can attract their efficient participations into internal decision-making procedure, while its responses to consumers’ concerns contribute to raise their satisfaction and confidence that fosters the firm’s reputation, intangible value, and future value (freeman & dmytriyev, 2017; madueño et al., 2016; tseng et al., 2020). however, the study is coherent to okafor, adusei, and adeleye, (2021)’s notice that a firm’s csr actions are not automatically converted into economic benefits but rely on what and how those are perceived by consumers’ assessment, thus, firms’ efforts to earn customers’ pleasure may not result in the corresponding effects. secondly, it is surprising that we cannot find any statistically significant effects of either tax or apt on cfp, with p-value > 0.1 in all three regression models. on the one hand, it makes sense that the connection between tax-related obligations and cfp is trivial because, according to carroll (1995), the society allows firms to play their economic role – producing goods and services, and earning profits – and in turns, lays down certain ground rules – laws – that firms are required to comply. in other words, the firm’s duty to regulators through taxes is somehow the compulsory action to gain legitimacy, a critical factor for its survival and development (prasetya et al., 2017). on the other hand, this study’s result is opposed to the evidence by chen et al. (2021), refuses any effects of a firm’s responsibility to suppliers on cfp. as far as we know, this relation in the specific case of vietnam has not been tested in previous empirical studies, thus, can be regarded as the interesting contribution of this study. thirdly, the study also finds dissimilar influences of different firm-specific factors on cfp. specifically, the firm’s financial leverage (lev) negatively affects its financial performance in all three models at 1% significant level, consistent with the findings of kanakriyah (2020), as a trade-off between profitability and risks referred by aras et al. (2010). meanwhile, the firm’s size creates a positive linkage with cfp at the significance level 1% in pooled osl and fe model, and 5% in re model, which is coherent to the arguments of quyen et al (2021) adair and adaskou (2015), aras et al. (2010) and waddock and graves (1997). minh, hong, & anh do corporate social responsibilities support its financial performance? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 14 furthermore, this study also examines the impact of industry categories on the csr-cfp relation through pairwise comparisons on the marginal estimations, shown in table 4. the results show that most of p-values of pairwise comparisons are higher than 0.1. this means the distinction of csr intensity between activity sectors is statistically insignificant. however, there are two exceptions: the difference between group 8 and 1, with the coefficient of -0.031 and p-value = 0.033, stating that firms in group 8 (utilities) have lower intensity of csr practices than firms in group 1 (consumer discretionary) at 5% significance level; and the difference between group 8 and 2, with the coefficient of -0.027 and p-value = 0.077, stating that firms in group 8 (utilities) have lower intensity of csr practices than firms in group 2 (consumer staples) at 10% significance level. these results, at a limited extent, are consistent to the findings of dobre et al. (2015) in case of romania, and salehi et al. (2018) in iran. table 4 pairwise comparisons of marginal linear predictions industries 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2 -0.004 (0.788) 3 -0.015 (0.506) -0.011 (0.639) 4 -0.003 (0.892) 0.001 (0.967) 0.012 (0.692) 5 -0.022 (0.100) -0.017 (0.209) -0.006 (0.757) -0.018 (0.437) 6 -0.015 (0.648) -0.010 (0.756) 0.0002 (0.995) -0.011 (0.761) 0.006 (0.835) 7 -0.014 (0.379) -0.009 (0.538) 0.0006 (0.977) -0.011 (0.655) 0.007 (0.580) 0.0004 (0.990) 8 -0.031** (0.033) -0.027* (0.077) -0.016 (0.437) -0.028 (0.239) -0.010 (0.339) -0.017 (0.598) -0.017 (0.231) notes: 1 = consumer discretionary; 2 = consumer staples; 3 = energy; 4 = health care; 5 = industrials; 6 = information technology; 7 = materials; 8 = utilities. p-value in parentheses: * p < 0.1; ** p < 0.05; *** p < 0.01. briefly, the results for the hypotheses are described in table 5. table 5 results summary hypotheses results h1 there is a significantly negative effect of the firm’s social responsibilities on financial performance in vietnam partially reject h1a the firm’s responsibility towards regulators has a significantly negative effect on financial performance in vietnam statistically insignificant h1b the firm’s responsibility towards employees has a significantly negative effect on financial performance in vietnam accept h1c the firm’s responsibility towards suppliers has a significantly negative effect on financial performance in vietnam statistically insignificant h1d the firm’s responsibility towards shareholders has a significantly negative effect on financial performance in vietnam reject h1e the firm’s responsibility towards creditors has a significantly negative effect on financial performance in vietnam accept h1f the firm’s responsibility towards customers has a significantly negative effect on financial performance in vietnam reject h2 the effect of csr on cfp in different industries is dissimilar partially accept minh, hong, & anh do corporate social responsibilities support its financial performance? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 15 conclusion along with the evolution of global business environment and the public cognitions of social issues, csr has emerged as the modern corporate strategy for sustainability. however, this concept is multidimensional, vague, and flexible regarding to various interpretations across distinctive contexts, subsequently, generating the enduring debates on how it correlates to corporate financial performance, as well as whether firms should implement csr activities. despite a long record of relevant studies, this issue remains fragmented and controversial in emerging countries. therefore, the present study investigates the relation between csr and cfp, considering the effect of individual csr practice to major stakeholders, and the distinctions across industries, using the sample of 162 non-financial listed firms on ho chi minh stock exchanges (hsx) during the period between 2015 and 2019, and regression analysis methods. complimentary tests have shown that the random effects model is the better option for this study. the results demonstrate that the influence of csr activities on cfp is inconstant in the context of vietnam. specifically, a firm’s response to the interest of shareholders and customers can raise its profitability, while its responsibility towards its employees and creditors may lessen its returns. however, the analysis finds no statistically significant correlation between firms’ actions towards regulators and suppliers and their accountingbased indicator of financial performance. moreover, the comparison by industry on the distinction of csr-cfp relations, though mostly statistically insignificant, finds the lower intensity of csr practice from firms in utilities sector compared to firms in consumer discretionary and consumer staples sectors. besides, the study finds contradictory influences of different firm-specific factors on cfp. particularly, while the firm’s financial leverage creates a negative impact on its financial performance, the influence of firm size is positive. these findings make great contributions by providing some critical insights for our understanding of csr practices, supporting firms to establish or adjust their strategic schemes for sustainability in the context of vietnam. this study also has certain limitations. firstly, the study employs regression methods on the panel data of non-financial firms listed on hsx during a five-year period. the consideration of extended time periods, two remaining stock exchanges in vietnam (hnx and upcom), and the use of different analysis methods (e.g., fuzzy delphi, sem, or fuzzy dematel) as suggested by tran and nguyen (2021), tseng et al. (2020), can help to produce more robust results. secondly, although the study has examined the relation between different csr activities and cfp, it only takes into account a single accountingbased indicator of cfp and two firm-specific control variables. however, there are potential aspects that may mediate this relation. thus, it is essential to diversify measures including market-based or survey-based/ qualitative indicators of cfp, and extend independent variables, as suggested by tiwari and ahamed (2018), oktarina and mu’alim (2017), darsono et al. (2022). lastly, many recent theories and studies have suggested a concurrently causal relation between csr and cfp (aras et al., 2010; orlitzky et al., 2003). however, this study is not concerned about potential causation, thus, is regarded as the empirical evidence, rather than causation investigation. further study can focus on this aspect to contribute the verification of the causal relationship. minh, hong, & anh do corporate social responsibilities support its financial performance? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 16 references adair, p., & adaskou, m. (2015). trade-off-theory vs. pecking order theory and the determinants of corporate leverage: evidence from a panel data analysis upon french smes. cogent economics & finance, 24(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2015.1006477 albertini, e. 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(2018). esg and corporate financial performance: empirical evidence from china’s listed power generation companies. sustainability, 10(8). https://doi.org/10.3390/su10082607 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhtm.2018.10.005 https://doi.org/10.3390/su10082607 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 21 nomor 2, oktober 2020 article type: research paper forecasting fisheries production in indonesia bayu rhamadani wicaksono1*, tendi sutandi2, and sydney tembo3 abstract: the abundance of water resources avails indonesia an excellent advantage in terms of the development of the capture and aquaculture fisheries. in recent years, indonesian fish production has shown an increasing trend. the capture and aquaculture fisheries reached 6.6 million and 16.0 million tonnes respectively in 2016. the growing trend was translated into an average contribution of 2.4 percent towards the national gdp in 2013-2017. however, the absence of forecasting methods and data on fisheries production's potential growth contributes to ineffective policy interventions that require optimum production. therefore, this study's main objective is to find the most accurate forecasting method for indonesia's fisheries production. this research utilized the quarterly data of indonesian fisheries production in 2000-2018 obtained from the ministry of marine affairs and fisheries. a comparative analysis of the double exponential and seasonal arima (sarima) method was undertaken to arrive at the most accurate forecasting method. the study findings broadly revealed that indonesia's fish production was on an increasing trend, with aquaculture fisheries' contribution outweighing the capture fisheries in recent years. furthermore, the sarima method was found to be the most accurate forecasting method compared to the double exponential method. the findings are useful for the government and related stakeholders for enhancing fish productivity in indonesia. in addition, sarima methods could be used to forecast the fish production in upcoming years for better policy, strategy, and decision-making in developing the fisheries sector in indonesia. keywords: double exponential; fisheries production; seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (sarima) jel classification: c22; c53; e23; e27; q22 introduction indonesia is the largest country in southeast asia that extends from 6o north latitude to 11o south latitude and from 95o to 141o east longitude. the territory is influenced by tropical climate due to its location along the equator. the territory is inhabited by a diversity of flora and fauna. indonesia’s land area covers 1.3 percent of the earth’s surface and is a big home for 12 percent of mammals, 16 percent of reptiles and amphibians, 17 percent of birds, 10 percent of plants, and 25 percent of fish species (world wildlife fund (wwf) indonesia, 2018). under the united nations convention on the law of the sea (unclos) 1982, the manageable ocean water area covered by 2/3 of all indonesian area, is approximately 5.9 million km2 (organization for economic cooperation and development (oecd), 2013). affiliation: 1 graduate school of economics, ritsumeikan university, japan. 2, 3 graduate school of international relations, international university of japan (iuj), japan *correspondence: gr0441kr@ed.ritsumei.ac.jp this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.21.2.5039 citation: wicaksono, b. r., sutandi, t., & tembo, s. (2020). forecasting fisheries production in indonesia. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 21(2), 170-184. article history received: 25 june 2020 reviewed: 12 sep 2020 revised: 15 sep 2020 accepted: 08 oct 2020 mailto:gr0441kr@ed.ritsumei.ac.jp http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/9181 http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp wicaksono, sutandi, & tembo forecasting fisheries production in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 171 this geographical location and abundance of water resources present a huge potential for fisheries resources from the natural water bodies. it gives indonesia a preferential benefit to undertake capture fisheries production, unlike aquaculture production. according to indonesian law number 31/2004 about fisheries, capture fisheries refer to activities to catching fish. meanwhile, aquaculture fisheries involve raising fish in a controlled environment (government of the republic of indonesia, 2004). the capture fisheries in indonesia are both marine and inland open water fisheries. however, to control the fish stock's overexploitation, the government has put in place fisheries regulatory measures, including the maximum sustainable yield (msy), as a global best practice. the msy is the highest possible catch to sustain the fish stock by keeping maximum growth (garcia, 1996). the maximum sustainable yield (msy) in capture fisheries is approximately 6.4 million tonnes per year, with the total allowable catch (tac) around 5.12 million tonnes per year or 80 percent of msy (oecd, 2013). the potency is yet not fully exploited, which was only 5.4 million tons of catching in 2013 or 93 percent of the tac although, in the following years, the production of capture fisheries reached 6.5 million tonnes in 2014, with a further increase of 6.6 million tonnes in 2016 (ministry of marine affairs and fisheries, 2019b). the figures imply that the fish production from capture fisheries is already in the overexploited condition. suman, irianto, satria, and amri (2016) argued that 86 percent of indonesian fishing ground in overfishing and fully exploited conditions. furthermore, the national fish production can be sealed by expanding aquaculture production in addition to filling the capture fisheries overexploited. tran, rodriguez, chan, philips, mohan, henriksson, koeshendrajana, suri, & hall (2017) argued that aquaculture became the main driver of fish supply growth with 7.7 percent annual growth and 40 percent shares in 2014. aquaculture fisheries production reached 14.4 million tonnes in 2014 and thereafter rose to 15.6 million tonnes and 16.0 million tonnes in 2015 and 2016, respectively (ministry of marine affairs and fisheries, 2019a). according to badan pusat statistik (bps)/ bps-statistics indonesia (2018), the contribution of the fisheries sector to the gross domestic product (gdp) of indonesia showed an increasing trend with an average of 2.4 percent between the 2013 and 2017 periods. in 2016, the fisheries sectors grew by 5.2 percent, recording a 2.56 percent contribution to the national gdp, with a total of idr 214.5 trillion. additionally, it grew by 5.95 percent in 2017 with the contribution towards national gdp at 2.57 percent, with a total of idr 227.3 trillion. one of the influencers of those increasing trends is fisheries production. the government and several stakeholders have made significant interventions in enhancing fisheries sector productivity. the fisheries sector's critical role is reinforced by the government regulations in nawa cita's priority agenda and the national mediumterm development plan/ rencana pembangunan jangka menengah nasional (rpjmn). it states that maritime and marine economies are conducted by increasing fisheries production in the upcoming years (ministry of marine affairs and fisheries, 2016). in view of the sector's immediate past performance, it is anticipated that its growth and contribution towards gdp will continue to rise. however, there is an absence of wicaksono, sutandi, & tembo forecasting fisheries production in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 172 forecasted data on the potential growth of fisheries production. it is likely to contribute to ineffective intervention strategies as decision making is not based on informed data. this study aims to identify the best forecasting method for fisheries production in indonesia. the previous studies sought to forecast indonesian fish production for various purposes with different methods (fitri, gamayanti, & darmawan 2017; azhar & riksakomara 2017). fitri et al. (2017) used singular spectrum analysis (ssa) method to forecast fish production in west java province, indonesia; thus, it could be identified whether the fish production could fulfill fish provision consumption. azhar and riksakomara (2017) forecasted the fish production to manage fish distribution in banjarmasin fishing port, indonesia, using the artificial neural network (ann) method to process the data mimicking the workings of the human nervous system. several studies compared the time series of forecasting methods to forecast the fisheries activities (xie, hong, & wohlin 1998; akkurt, demirel, & zaim 2010; ilah 2016; raman sathianandan, sharma, & mohanty, 2017; karunarathna & karunarathna 2017). xie et al. (1998) compared double exponential, go model, and s-shaped models to predict the number of software errors. the study found that the double exponential method provided a more accurate result than two other methods in forecasting the number of software errors. akkurt et al. (2010) compared the method of exponential smoothing, winter forecasting, and seasonal arima (sarima) to forecast turkey’s national gas consumption. the findings suggested that the best forecasting method depended on the data set. double exponential is more powerful for the yearly data set than the others, while the sarima model is more powerful for the monthly data set. ilah (2016) argued that determining fisheries export development required an appropriate forecasting method based on past data. in this case, arima (0,1,1) (1,0,2)12 is the best model to forecast fresh/frozen shrimp while arima (0,1,0) (1,0,0)12 is the best model for the export of cob/tuna forecast. raman et al. (2017) found that the arima model with logtransformed data performed better to forecast odisha’s fish landing in 2013-2015. meanwhile, karunarathna and karunarathna (2017) found that arima (1,1,1) was the best method to forecast sri lanka’s annual fish production. specifically, based on the background and problem identification, this study aims to compare univariate time series forecasting methods: double exponential and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (sarima). this research used the quarterly data of indonesian fisheries production during the 2000-2018 periods. the double exponential method represented the simple forecasting method, while sarima represented the complex forecasting method, including the seasonal factors in the quarterly data (box & jenkins, 1976). this research has three objectives: understanding the general description of fisheries production in indonesia, selecting the most accurate time series method for forecasting fisheries production in indonesia, and forecasting the predicted results of fisheries production in indonesia for upcoming years. the hypothesis testing is that the sarima method is more accurate than the double exponential method. wicaksono, sutandi, & tembo forecasting fisheries production in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 173 hopefully, the best method's predicted results are essential for stakeholders and policymakers in indonesia. the government can use the predicted results of fisheries production to make future planning and regulations suitable for the development of fisheries production. moreover, the government can also use the predicted results as an alternative consideration to make other targets in the future, such as the number of fisheries consumption and export. research method this research used quarterly data on fisheries production in indonesia from 2000 to 2018. the data source was the secondary data obtained from the ministry of marine affairs and fisheries (mmaf). running data for this study used software of minitab 14, e-views 10, and microsoft excel 2013. based on mulyana (2004), double exponential is a popular technique for short-term forecasting for data. this method, using different smoothing constants, smoothed the levels and slopes directly. these smoothing constants provided an estimation of levels and slopes adjusted all-time when the new observations were available. the three equations used in the double exponential method are as follows. exponential smoothing rows 𝐴𝑡 = 𝛼𝑌𝑡 + (1 − 𝛼)(𝐴𝑡−1 + 𝑇𝑡−1) trend estimation 𝑇𝑡 = 𝛽(𝐴𝑡 − 𝐴𝑡−1) + (1 − 𝛽)𝑇𝑡−1 forecasting the next p period �̂�𝑡+𝑝 = 𝐴𝑡 + 𝑝𝑇𝑡 with: at = new smoothing values α = smoothing constants of data (0 ≤ α ≤ 1) yt = new observations of the actual value in the period t series 𝛽 = smoothing constants of trend estimation (0 ≤ 𝛽 ≤ 1) tt = trend estimation p = periods of the next forecast �̂�𝑡+𝑝 = forecasted value of p periods based on box and jenkins (1976), the arima method do not need a specific assumption about historical data from the periodic series, but it used iterative methods to obtain the best model. furthermore, the selected model would be re-checked with historical data, wicaksono, sutandi, & tembo forecasting fisheries production in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 174 whether it already described the suitable data or not. the best model would be obtained when the residual between the forecasting model and historical data was small, random, and independent. if the model chosen was not able to explain well, the model needed to be repeated. generally, the equation of arima is as follows. (1 − ∑ ∅ℎ 𝐵 ℎ 𝑝 ℎ=1 )(1 − 𝐵)𝑑 𝑌𝑡 = (1 − ∑ 𝜃𝑖 𝐵 𝑖 𝑞 𝑖=1 )𝜀𝑡 with: yt = dependent variables at t time ∅ℎ = lag regression coefficient of y 𝜃𝑖 = lag regression coefficient of residual (1 – b)d = differencing the d order 𝜀𝑡 = error term/residual p = number of orders in the auto-regressive model d = number of differencing process q = number of orders in the moving average model the seasonal data were defined as a time series with a repetitive auto pattern from one year to another. both observations within a year and inter-year observations were intercorrelated. the autocorrelation plot could detect the existence of a seasonal pattern on the data. generally, arima for seasonal data or seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (sarima) model is as follows. φ𝑃 (𝐵 𝑠)𝜙𝑝(𝐵)∇𝑠 𝐷∇𝑑 𝑧𝑡 = 𝜃𝑞 (𝐵)θ𝑄 (𝐵 𝑠)𝑎𝑡 with: φ𝑃 (𝐵 𝑠 ) = the seasonal auto-regressive model of order p 𝜙𝑝(𝐵) = the regular auto-regressive model of order p ∇𝑠 𝐷 = the seasonal differences ∇𝑑 = the regular differences θ𝑄 (𝐵 𝑠) = the seasonal moving average model of order q 𝜃𝑞 (𝐵) = the regular moving average model of order q 𝑎𝑡 = a white noise process every forecasting method selected must be evaluated in terms of reliability and capability when applied to encountered problems, cost-effectiveness, and accuracy. the forecasting accuracy was frequently considered based on a comparison between the original series and the forecasting series. the difference between the actual values and the forecast values is usually expressed as residuals. comparing the accuracy among several forecasting models can use five measurements. wicaksono, sutandi, & tembo forecasting fisheries production in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 175 mean square error (mse) the first measure to evaluate forecasting methods is mse. this approach shows extensive forecasting residual as its residual value is squared. the formulation of mse is: 𝑀𝑆𝐸 = 1 𝑛 ∑(𝑌𝑡 − �̂�𝑡 ) 2 𝑛 𝑡=1 root mean square error (rmse) rmse is the generated value from the mse’s root. rmse is very useful to measure residual forecasts in the same unit as the original series. the formulation of rmse is: 𝑅𝑀𝑆𝐸 = √𝑀𝑆𝐸 = √ 1 𝑛 ∑(𝑌𝑡 − �̂�𝑡 ) 2 𝑛 𝑡=1 mean absolute deviation (mad) mad measures the accuracy of forecasting through the absolute value of each residual. like rmse, mad is very useful to measure residual forecasts in the same unit as the original series. the following equation shows how to measure mad: 𝑀𝐴𝐷 = 1 𝑛 ∑|𝑌𝑡 − �̂�𝑡 | 𝑛 𝑡=1 mean absolute percentage error (mape) mape can also be used to compare the accuracy of various similar or different methods in some different series. here is how to calculate mape: 𝑀𝐴𝑃𝐸 = ( 1 𝑛 ∑ |𝑌𝑡 − �̂�𝑡 | 𝑌𝑡 𝑛 𝑡=1 ) 𝑋 100% result and discussion figure 1 shows that the capture fisheries production from 2000 to 2009 has been more extensive than the aquaculture fisheries production. however, there was a contrary condition after that period. the production of aquaculture fisheries between 2010 and 2018 increased significantly. it took twice from 11.7 million to 23.8 million tonnes. wicaksono, sutandi, & tembo forecasting fisheries production in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 176 figure 1 the number of fisheries production in indonesia, 2000-2018 (tonnes) source: ministry of marine affairs and fisheries, 2019 the capture fisheries were an effort to catch fish and other aquatic organisms in nature (sea, river, lake, and others). humans do not intentionally control aquatic organisms' lives in nature and its factors (biotic and abiotic). in contrast to the capture fisheries, the aquaculture fisheries were operated on land using a water pool or a tank and a protected water body. thus, the fishes that were kept did not escape to nature. the aquaculture fisheries mimicked a system found in nature to breed and raise the fish. the fisheries sector was a part of the natural resource economy, so its existence is very strategic in providing a significant contribution to national development. in fact, the food and agriculture organization (fao) has predicted that fisheries will become one of the resources that will be immensely reliable in the future, especially in fulfilling the food needs and empowering the economy of the global community (cocon, 2017). figure 2 the growth of fisheries production in indonesia, 2001-2018 (percent) source: ministry of marine affairs and fisheries, 2019 figure 2 shows three views that can describe the growth of fisheries production in indonesia. first, the highest growth in 2013, approximately 25.23 percent, was recorded for total fisheries production. second, the capture fisheries production reached the highest growth of about 7.47 percent in 2017. last, aquaculture fisheries production 0 5.000.000 10.000.000 15.000.000 20.000.000 25.000.000 30.000.000 capture fisheries aquaculture fisheries total -10,00 0,00 10,00 20,00 30,00 40,00 50,00 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 capture fisheries aquaculture fisheries total wicaksono, sutandi, & tembo forecasting fisheries production in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 177 experienced the highest growth in 2005, which was 47.33 percent. all in all, the recent growth was not as massive as in previous years; even the growth has declined from 2014 to 2016. however, based on figure 1, fisheries production has an increasing trend. specifically, the performance of aquaculture fisheries production also showed a positive trend, in which the production tended to increase on average per year to 19.08 percent in the 2011-2015 period. this result recorded indonesia as the second producer of world aquaculture. in 2014, indonesia contributed at least 14.22 percent of the total world aquaculture production and ranked second after china, which still dominated 58.16 percent (cocon, 2017). double exponential figure 3 shows a plot of the original data and linear regression over time. the indonesian fisheries production data are the quarterly data from 2000 to 2018. figure 3 trend analysis plot for fisheries production source: authors, 2020 furthermore, figure 3 depicts that indonesian fisheries production data's movement has a linear trend pattern where the trend's propensity has increased year to year. as indonesian fisheries production data has a trend, the chosen exponential smoothing method is the double exponential. index p r o d u c t io n 726456484032241681 7000000 6000000 5000000 4000000 3000000 2000000 1000000 0 a ccuracy measures ma pe 1.94138e+01 ma d 4.67968e+05 msd 2.82047e+11 variable a ctual fits trend analysis plot for production linear trend model yt = 277833 + 75580.4*t year 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 wicaksono, sutandi, & tembo forecasting fisheries production in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 178 figure 4 double exponential smoothing plot for fisheries production source: authors, 2020 based on the double exponential method in figure 4, a model of indonesian fisheries production can be obtained with α= 0.599743 and β= 0.052323. testing for the residual model for indonesian fisheries production can be seen from the residual autocorrelation function (acf) plot. figure 5 autocorrelation function for residual of fisheries production source: authors, 2020 moreover, based on the residual acf plot in figure 5, all intervals' autocorrelation coefficient is insignificant. this result showed that the series was random; thus, the index p r o d u c t io n 726456484032241681 7000000 6000000 5000000 4000000 3000000 2000000 1000000 smoothing c onstants a lpha (lev el) 0.599743 gamma (trend) 0.052323 a ccuracy measures ma pe 6.03972e+00 ma d 2.20737e+05 msd 1.16390e+11 variable a ctual fits double exponential smoothing plot for production lag a u to c o rr e la ti o n 18161412108642 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 autocorrelation function for res(production) (with 5% significance limits for the autocorrelations) year 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 wicaksono, sutandi, & tembo forecasting fisheries production in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 179 model was appropriate and adequately explained the data. meanwhile, based on figure 4, the double exponential equation is described as follows. �̂�𝑡+𝑝 = 0.599743 𝑌𝑡 + 0.400257(𝐴𝑡−1 + 𝑇𝑡−1) + 𝑝(0.052323(𝐴𝑡 − 𝐴𝑡−1) + 0.947677𝑇𝑡−1) seasonal arima (sarima) based on figure 3, it can be seen that the data has a trend; thus, it is concluded that the data are not stationary at the level. it is further confirmed by the formal phillipsperron unit root test in table 1. table 1 phillips-perron unit root test on production null hypothesis: production has a unit root exogenous: constant, linear trend bandwidth: 2 (newey-west automatic) using bartlett kernel adj. t-stat prob.* phillips-perron test statistic -2.935438 0.1577 test critical values: 1% level -4.085092 5% level -3.470851 10% level -3.162458 *mackinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. source: authors, 2020 based on table 1, the result shows that the p-value of fisheries production (0.1577) was larger than the value of α (0.05). therefore, it is necessary to do a differencing process so that the data will be stationary. figure 6 plot of fisheries production data in first differencing source: authors, 2020 index d (p r o d u c ti o n ) 726456484032241681 1500000 1000000 500000 0 -500000 -1000000 time series plot of d(production) wicaksono, sutandi, & tembo forecasting fisheries production in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 180 in figure 6, it can be seen that the indonesian fisheries production was stationary at first differencing. it was confirmed by examining the stationary of data on the f irst differencing through the phillips-perron unit root formal test. table 2 phillips-perron unit root test on d(production) null hypothesis: d(production) has a unit root exogenous: constant, linear trend bandwidth: 52 (newey-west automatic) using bartlett kernel adj. t-stat prob.* phillips-perron test statistic -18.91669 0.0001 test critical values: 1% level -4.086877 5% level -3.471693 10% level -3.162948 *mackinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. source: authors, 2020 furthermore, in table 2, the test result showed that the p-value of fisheries production (0,0001) was smaller than the value of α (0.05), so the data were stationary. therefore, it can be concluded that indonesian fisheries production data were eligible for the test of seasonal arima (sarima). the next step was to identify the sarima model that could be completed by comparing the autocorrelation function (acf) and partial autocorrelation function (pacf) patterns from the stationary data. however, there was a possibility of obscurity in determining the best sarima model so that identification could also be conducted by trial and error method (box & jenkins, 1976). table 3 the possibility of sarima model no. sarima model mean square (1) (2) (3) 1 arima (0,1,1) (0,1,1)4 116,318,730,247 2 arima (1,1,0) (0,1,1)4 126,911,538,380 3 arima (1,1,2) (0,1,1)4 94,333,239,916 source: authors, 2020 based on the result in table 3, three sarima models were obtained that ha s significant parameters for indonesian fisheries production data. arima (1,1,2) (0,1,1)4 is the best model as it had a smaller mean square (ms) value than the other models. the selected sarima model estimator must be a model that is able to explain the data well. this examination can be carried out by looking at the correlogram through the acf for residual. based on figure 7, there was no significant residual in indonesian fisheries production data. a comprehensive examination of the model's adequacy can be used in the chisquare test (χ2) based on ljung-box q statistics. wicaksono, sutandi, & tembo forecasting fisheries production in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 181 figure 7 autocorrelation function for residual arima (1,1,2) (0,1,1) 4 source: authors, 2020 in table 4, the result indicates that the indonesian fisheries production model was adequate as there was the insignificance of the p-value in all selected lag samples. the results of the two types of checks showed that the residuals are random. table 4 modified box-pierce (ljung-box) chi-square statistics lag 12 24 36 48 chi-square 15.5 25.5 28.5 30.4 df 8 20 32 44 p-value 0.050 0.184 0.643 0.941 source: authors, 2020 to get a suitable model in forecasting fisheries production in indonesia, it is necessary to test the accuracy of the model obtained between the double exponential and sarima method. in table 5, comparing the value of four criteria for the model accuracy can be concluded that the sarima method was more accurate for forecasting fisheries production in indonesia. table 5 the comparison of accuracy between double exponential and sarima criteria double exponential arima (1,1,2) (0,1,1)4 (1) (2) (3) mse 1.16390e+11 0.94333e+11 rmse 341,159.79 307,137.17 mad 2.20737e+05 4.17817e+02 mape 6.03972 0.15450 source: authors, 2020 upon obtaining the best model, forecasting can be done using the equation of the chosen method. the model of arima (1,1,2) (0,1,1)4 presented the predicted value of lag a u to co rr e la ti o n 18161412108642 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 autocorrelation function for resi1 (with 5% significance limits for the autocorrelations) wicaksono, sutandi, & tembo forecasting fisheries production in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 182 indonesian fisheries production in 2019 compared to th e preliminary number from the ministry of marine affairs and fisheries. table 6 the predicted value and preliminary number of fisheries production in indonesia, 2019 (tonnes) year quarter predicted value (authors) preliminary number (mmaf) (1) (2) (3) (4) 2019 1 5,945,490 6,032,798 2 6,059,133 6,323,112 3 5,926,227 6,572,446 4 5,752,931 5,798,512 source: authors, 2020 & ministry of marine affairs and fisheries, 2019 by referring to the result in table 6, each quarter's predicted value was relatively close to the preliminary number from the ministry of marine affairs and fisheries. the government can continue to increase indonesian fisheries production, which is expected to be able to fulfill the needs of domestic consumption and export in the future. it is not difficult as indonesia has a comparative advantage compared to other countries, such as the abundance of labor and natural resources as raw materials. however, the comparative advantage cannot always be used as the frontline. in the current free trade era, indonesia must also create other advantages that can be developed, such as the competitive advantage (tambunan, 2004) . conclusion the key findings of this study are that fish production was on an increasing trend. indonesian fisheries production presented an increasing trend with a linear pattern during the 2000-2018 periods. the study revealed the shifting dominance from capture to aquaculture fisheries. the capture fisheries production was more significant than aquaculture fisheries production in the period 2000-2009. however, the fisheries production from aquaculture between 2010 and 2018 increased significantly as its recorded growth doubled. it is such adequate evidence and justification for prioritizing substantial actions, such as investments, into aquaculture to increase indonesia's fisheries production. furthermore, the research revealed that the sarima model was the selected forecasting method. based on the comparison of accuracy measurements, the sarima, as a forecasting method for indonesian fisheries production, was more accurate than the double exponential. in addition, the predicted value for each quarter in 2019 using arima (1,1,2) (0,1,1)4 was relatively close to the preliminary fish production obtained from the ministry of marine affairs and fisheries. it was called for enhancing capacity building in the use of sarima as a fisheries 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(1998). a study of the exponential smoothing technique in software reliability growth prediction. quality and reliability engineering international, 13(6), 347–353. https://doi.org/10.1002/(sici)10991638(199711/12)13:6%3c347::aid-qre116%3e3.0.co;2-o http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/rev_fish-2013-en https://doi.org/10.1007/s40009-017-0581-2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s40009-017-0581-2 https://doi.org/10.15578/jkpi.8.2.2016.97-100 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2017.02.002 https://www.wwf.or.id/program/spesies/ https://doi.org/10.1002/(sici)1099-1638(199711/12)13:6%3c347::aid-qre116%3e3.0.co;2-o https://doi.org/10.1002/(sici)1099-1638(199711/12)13:6%3c347::aid-qre116%3e3.0.co;2-o jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 1, april 2018, hlm. 1-10 doi: 10.18196/jesp.19.1.3836 pengaruh ekspor dan impor terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di indonesia ismadiyanti purwaning astuti, fitri juniwati ayuningtyas fakultas ekonomi dan sosial, universitas amikom yogyakarta jalan ring road utara, condong catur, depok, sleman, yogyakarta, indonesia, e-mail korespondensi: ismadiyanti@amikom.ac.id abstract: the purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of exports and imports on economic growth in indonesia in the long term and short term. the data used in this study is secondary data obtained from the world bank 2000-2016. the analysis used is regression analysis using error corection model (ecm) method. tests used in the model are stationarity test, r-square test, f test and t test. the result of this research is that long term, export variable and exchange rate i nfluence to economic growth while import does not have an effect on to economic growth. in the short run, export and import variables affect economic growth, while exchange rates have no effect on economic growth key words: export, import, economic growth, ecm jel classification: f10, f14, f17 pendahuluan perkembangan perekonomian suatu negara saat ini tidak dapat terlepas dari kondisi perekonomian global. hubungan ekonomi antar negara menjadi faktor penting yang berpengaruh terhadap perkembangan ekonomi masing-masing negara. kondisi ini menyebabkan daya saing sebagai salah satu faktor yang menentukan dalam kompetisi antar negara agar memperoleh manfaat dari semakin terbukanya perekonomian dunia. keuntungan dari terbukanya perekonomian dunia dapat dilihat dari keadaan neraca pembayaran suatu negara. menurut bank indonesia, neraca pembayaran merupakan catatan transaksi ekonomi antara penduduk indonesia dengan bukan penduduk pada suatu periode tertentu. neraca pembayaran sebuah negara dikatakan surplus apabila terdapat kelebihan dana perdagangan dan investasi dibandingkan kewajiban-kewajiban yang dibayarkan kepada negara sedangkan dikatakan defisit apabila impor lebih besar dari pada ekspor. keadaan neraca pembayaran yang surplus atau defisit mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi indonesia. hubungan antara perdagangan internasional dan pertumbuhan ekonomi menjadi topik yang banyak di bahas di bidang ekonomi tetapi masih kontroversial. kemunculan literature mengenai pertumbuhan endogen memungkinkan peran yang lebih besar dari keterbukaan eksternal negara-negara dalam proses perkembangan teknologi dibandingkan dengan model pertumbuhan solow yang tradisional. pendekatan baru ini menekankan bahwa inovasi teknologi muncul sebagai respon terhadap insentif ekonomi dimana lingkungan kelembagaan, hukum, keterbukaan dan integrasi ekonomi mempengaruhi kecepatan dan arah perubahan teknologi (grossman dan helpman, 1994; aghion dan howitt, 1998). di sisi lain, banyak literatur empiris yang menunjukkan bahwa perdagangan internasional dan kebijakan perdagangan yang lebih terbuka merupakan faktor utama untuk menjelaskan pertumbuhan ekonomi. negara dengan sikap 2 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 1, april 2018: 1-10 perdagangan yang lebih liberal memungkinkan menikmati jumlah input liberal lebih tinggi dengan biaya yang lebih rendah sehingga menghasilkan pertumbuhan yang lebih tinggi (edwards, 1992 dan 1993). menurut thirlwall (1979), neraca pembayaran bertindak sebagai kendala pada tingkat pertumbuhan output. kenaikan output domestik karena meningkatnya impor dapat menyebabkan defisit neraca pembayaran yang memungkinkan penurunan permintaan atau depresiasi nilai tukar riil. negara-negara tumbuh lebih cepat dalam menghadapi elastisitas pendapatan yang lebih tinggi untuk ekspor daripada impor. hal ini disebabkan tidak ada negara yang pertumbuhannya lebih cepat daripada tingkat pembayaran yang harus dibayar karena rasio utang luar negeri terhadap pdb yang besar menyebabkan keruntuhan kepercayaan internasional dan eksternal. defisit neraca berjalan yang tinggi tidak menjadi masalah bila anggaran pemerintah seimbang dan keputusan penghematan dan investasi diambil secara optimal oleh agen swasta (corden, 2007). namun menurut edward (2002), defisit eksternal harus menjadi perhatian dalam menerapkan kebijakan bahkan jika defisit akun berjalan tidak mengarah pada krisis mata uang. dengan kata lain bukan pada seberapa besar defisitnya tetapi bagaimana negara menjalankan defisit yang tidak berkelanjutan. secara umum, defisit transaksi berjalan yang tidak melebihi 5% dari pdb dianggap tidak berkelanjutan sehingga diatas ambang ini mulai dilakukan proses penyesuaian (freund, 2005). penelitian sebelumnya yang dilakukan oleh bajo-rubio (2012) meneliti mengenai neraca pembayaran yang bertindak sebagai kendala pada tingkat pertumbuhan di spanyol. data yang digunakan data time series selama periode 18502000. pada jangka panjang, defisit eksternal tidak bekerja sebagai kendala pertumbuhan ekonomi tetapi bekerja pada sub periode 1940-1959 dan 1959-1974. perekonomian spanyol menggunakan defisit eksternal untuk memperlancar tingkat konsumsi agregat yang didukung oleh keberlanjutan defisit transaksi sepanjang periode analisis. atilla dan erhan (2013) meneliti penerapan model thirlwall pada keseimbangan neraca pembayaran untuk ekonomi turki pada periode 19682011. penelitian ini juga mengevaluasi prosedur pengujian prinsip thrilwall dengan memperkirakan elastisitas pendapatan pada permintaan impor dengan menggunakan metode stasioneritas dan kointegrasi. dengan menggunakan analisis kointegrasi johansen antara pdb dan ekspor mempunyai hubungan positif secara statistik signifikan. temuan ini membuktikan bahwa model pertumbuhan keseimbangan thirlwall berlaku untuk ekonomi turki. penelitian yang dilakukan oleh elias, pedro dan mocaela (2014), menerapakan model sca di italis dan memeriksa ketepatan untuk menjelaskan jalur pertumbuhan negara. italia merupakan kasus yang menarik mengenai karena dalam decade terakhir menghadapi ketidakseimbangan internal yang disebabkan oleh defisit dan hutang publik yang tinggi. hasil dari penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa italia tumbuh dengn lebih lambat dari kapasitas pontensinya karena kendala pasokan. kebijakan untuk meningkatkan daya saing eksternal dan menurunkan biaya ekonomi terbukti efektif untuk mencapai pertumbuhan yang lebih tinggi. penelitian ini meneliti bagaimana neraca pembayaran mempengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi yang dianalisis dari sisi neraca berjalan dalam npi. sisi neraca berjalan yang diteliti adalah mengenai ekspor, impor dan nilai tukar. berdasarkan model yang dikembangkan oleh thirlwall (1979), penelitian ini meneliti pengaruh neraca pembayaran terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi dalam jangka pendek dan jangka pan pengaruh ekspor dan impor terhadap pertumbuhan… (ismadiyanti p. astuti, fitri j. ayuningtyas) 3 jang mengunakan analisis regresi berganda dengan metode ecm. jangka pendek yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah kurang dari 5 tahun sedangan jangka panjang lebih dari 5 tahun. metode penelitian data dan sumber data penelitian ini menggunakan metode pendekatan yang bersifat kuantitatif. menurut sugiono (2016), metode kuantitatif adalah pendekatan ilmiah yang memandang suatu realitas itu dapat diklasifikasikan, konkrit, teramati dan terukur, hubungan variabel bersifat sebab akibat dimana data penelitiannya berupa angka-angka. dalam penelitian ini memfokuskan pada penjelasan hubungan antara neraca pembayaran sebagai variabel dependen dan pertumbuhan ekonomi sebagai variabel independen di indonesia dengan menggunakan data runtut waktu (time series) dari tahun 1967-2016. jenis data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data sekunder. data tersebut diperoleh dari world bank. definisi operasional variabel variabel ini dikelompokkan menjadi 2(dua) yaitu variabel dependen (variable terikat) dan variabel independen (variable bebas). variabel dependen yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah pertumbuhan ekonomi sedangkan variabel independen yang digunakan adalah ekspor, impor dan tingkat kurs. definisi variabel yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah: pertama, gross domestik produk (gdp) adalah jumlah nilai bruto yang ditambahkan oleh seluruh produsen dalam perekonomian yang ditambah pajak dan dikurangi subsidi yang tidak termasuk dalam nilai suatu produk. penelitian ini menggunakan prosentase tingkat pertumbuhan gdp tahunan pada harga pasar berdasarkan pada mata uang indonesia yang konstan. data pertumbuhan gdp harga konstan di ambil dari the world bank. kedua, ekspor (eks) adalah proses penjualan barang atau komoditas dari suatu negara ke negara lain. ekspor yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah ekspor barang dan jaas yang mewakili nilai semua barang dan layanan pasar lainnya yang diberikan ke seluruh dunia. layanan tersebut termasuk nilai barang dagangan, kargo, asuransi, transportasi, perjalanan, royalty, biaya lisensi dan layanan lainnya seperti layanan komunikasi, konstruksi, keuangan, informasi, bisnis, pribadi, dan pemerintah. data dalam dolar a.s. ketiga, impor (imp) adalah kegiatan memasukkan barang dari luar negeri ke dalam negeri. impor yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah impor barang dan jasa yang mewakili nilai semua barang dan layanan pasar lainnya yang diterima dari negera-negara lain di dunia. layanan tersebut termasuk nilai barang dagangan, kargo, asuransi, transportasi, perjalanan, royalty, biaya lisensi dan layanan lainnya seperti layanan komunikasi, konstruksi, keuangan, informasi, bisnis, probadi dan pemerintah. data impor yang digunakan dalam dolar a.s. keempat, kurs (kurs) adalah harga sebuah mata uang dari suatu negara yang diukur atau dinyatakan dalam mata uang lainnya. kurs yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah nilai tukar/ kurs resmi yang mengacu pada nilai tukar yang ditentukan oleh otoritas nasional atau tingkat suku bunga yang ditentukan di pasar bursa yang disetujui secara hukum. kurs ini dihitung sebagai rata-rata tahunan berdasarkan rata-rata bulanan (mata uang local yang relative terhadap dolar a.s). alat analisis dalam penelitian ini untuk menjawab permasalahan maka model yang digunakan pada data time series ini adalah model koreksi kesalahan atau ecm ( error correction model) dengan syarat utama bahwa data tidak stasioner di tingkat level, tetapi stasioner pada derajat integrasi dan variabelnya terkointegrasi. model yang digunakan untuk melakukan koreksi ketid4 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 1, april 2018: 1-10 akseimbangan jangka pendek menuju jangka panjang. dan model regresi berganda menggunakan ordinary least square (ols). model yang digunakan adalah sebagai berikut: model umum dari regresi berganda yaitu: yt = α0 + α1 xt + εt ........................................................................................................................ (1) model umum error correction model (ecm) yaitu: δyt = α0 + α1 δxt-1 + α2 δect-1 + εt ......................................................................................... (2) model regresi berganda ordinary least square (ols) yaitu: gdpt = α0 + α1 log_ekst + α3 log_impt + α3log_ kurst + εt ................................... (3) model error correction model (ecm) yaitu: gdpt = α0 + α1 δlog_ekst + α3δ log_impt + α3 δlog_ kurst + ectt-1 ................. (4) dimana: gdpt = pertumbuhan ekonomi; log_ekst = ekspor rill; log_impt = impor riil; log_ kurst = nilai tukar; a0 = konstanta; α1, α2, α3 = koefisien; εt = error term; ectt-1 =error correction term analisis yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah metode analisis deskriptif kuantitatif dengan menggunakan teori-teori dan data-data yang berhubungan dengan penelitian ini. analisis data digunakan untuk menyederhanakan data yang telah diperoleh ke dalam bentuk yang lebih mudah dibaca dan diinterpretasikan. pada penelitian ini, dalam menganalisis data menggunakan menggunakan software microsoft excel 2007 dan kemudian diolah menggunakan eviews 7. hal ini dilakukan agar hasil yang diperoleh lebih dapat telihat perbedaan pengaruh antara masing-masing variabel terhadap keseimbangan primer. tahapan analisis data dalam penelitian ini dilakukan melalui beberapa tahap yaitu: pertama, uji stasioneritas (uji akar unit), uji stasioneritas ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui apakah data runtut waktu yang digunakan sudah stasioner atau belum. regresi palsu (spurious regression) dihasilkan jika data tidak stasioner. dalam penelitian pada dasarnya data runtut waktu sering mengalami ketidak stasioneran pada level series. sehingga perlu dilakukannya differensiasi satu atau dua kali untuk menghasilkan data satsioner. untuk mengetahui apakah data runtut waktu yang digunakan stasioner atau tidak stasioner, salah satu cara yang dapat dilakukan adalah menggunakan uji akar unit (unit roots test). uji akar unit dilakukan dengan menggunakan metode augmented h1: tidak terdapat akar unit (data stasioner), h0: terdapat akar unit (data tidak stasioner) dicky fuller (adf), dengan hipotesis sebagai berikut: hasil statistik dari hasil estimasi pada metode adf akan dibandingkan dengan nilai kritis mckinnon pada titik kritis 1%, 5%, dan 10%. jika nilai t-statistik lebih kecil dari nilai kritis mckinnon maka h0 diterima, artinya data terdapat akar unit atau data tidak stasioner. jika nilai t-statistik lebih besar dari nilai kritis mckinnon maka h0 ditolak, artinya data tidak terdapat akar unit atau data stasioner. kedua, kointegrasi merupakan suatu hubungan jangka panjang antara variabel-variabel pengaruh ekspor dan impor terhadap pertumbuhan… (ismadiyanti p. astuti, fitri j. ayuningtyas) 5 yang meskipun secara individual tidak stasioner, tetapi kombinasi linier antara variabel tersebut dapat menjadi stasioner. keadaan variabel yang tidak stasioner menyebakan kemungkinan adanya hubungan jangka panjang antara variabel dalam sistem ecm. salah satu syarat agar tercapai keseimbangan jangka panjang adalah galat keseimbangan harus berfluktuasi di sekitar nol. dengan kata lain, error term harus menjadi sebuah data runtut waktu yang stasioner. tujuan adanya uji kointegrasi ini adalah agar seluruh variabel terintegrasi pada tingkat yang sama. ada beberapa metode yang dapat digunakan untuk melakukan uji kointegrasi (enders, 1995). ketiga, teknik untuk mengoreksi ketidakseimbangan jangka pendek menuju keseimbangan jangka panjang disebut dengan error correction model (ecm), yang dikenalkan oleh sargan dan dipopulerkan oleh engle-granger. model ecm pada umumnya merupakan suatu konsep model ekonometris runtut waktu yang bertujuan untuk menyeimbangkan kondisi jangka pendek dengan kondisi jangka keseimbangan jangka panjang melalui suatu proses penyesuaian. engle and granger (1987) mengemukakan bahwa apabila diantara sejumlah peubah terdapat kointegrasi, maka diperoleh kondisi yang disebut error correction repsensentation yang mengindikasikan bahwa perubahan yang terjadi terhadap variabel terikat tidak hanya dipengaruhi oleh variabel bebas tetapi juga dipengaruhi oleh keseimbangan dari hubungan kointegrasi. ketidakseimbangan dari hubungan kointegrasi ini ditunjukan oleh nilai error-correction term. selain itu dalam ekonometrika ecm berguna dalam mengatasi masalah data time series yang tidak stasioner dan masalah spurious regression. analisis dengan menggunakan ecm melalui 3 langkah analisis data yaitu (1) uji stasioner data, (2) uji kointegrasi untuk mengetahui apakah terdapat hubungan jangka panjang antara variabel x dengan y, dan (3) menyusun error-correction model (gujarati, 2009). hasil dan pembahasan dalam menganalisis hasil estimasi model ecm dalam jangka panjang dan jangka pendek sebelumnya dilakukan pengujian data. data yang digunakan dalam penelitian perlu diuji menggunakan dua uji stasioneritas data yaitu uji akar-akar unit dan uji kointegrasi. pengujian stasioneritas data yang dilakukan terhadap seluruh variabel dalam modell penelitian didasarkan pada augmented dickey fuller (adf) test, yang perhitungannya menggunakan bantuan komputer dengan program eviews 7. pengujian akarakar unit dilakukan dengan memasukkan intersep namun tidak memasukkan trend waktu pada uji df, dan dengan memasukkan intersep dan trend waktu pada uji adf. tabel 1. hasil uji akar-akar unit dengan augmented dickey-fuller test pada level adf statistik tanda nilai kritis 1% nilai kritis 5% nilai kritis 10% keterangan variabel gdp -6.751397 < -3.577723 -2.925169 -2.600658 stasioner variabel ekspor 0.807999 > -3.571310 -2.922499 -2.599224 tidak stasioner variabel impor -0.058198 > -3.571310 -2.922449 -2.599224 tidak stasioner variabel kurs -0.073768 > -3.571310 -2.922449 -2.599224 tidak stasioner sumber: eviews 7 berdasarkan tabel 1, maka diketahui sebagian besar variable tidak stasioner pada derajat level. hanya variable gdp yang stasioner sedangkan variable ekspor, impor dan kurs tidak stasioner. oleh karena itu, untuk keperluan regresi ecm maka perlu dilakukan proses diferensi terhadap data tersebut agar data stasioner pada derajat yang sama. dengan prosedur yang sama seperti langkah di atas maka hasil uji akar-akar unit augmented dickey fuller (adf) test pada derajat first difference sebagai berikut: tabel 2. hasil uji akar-akar unit dengan augmented dickey-fuller test pada first different adf statistik tanda nilai kritis 1% nilai kritis 5% nilai kritis 10% keterangan variabel gdp -7.900274 < -3.592462 -2.931404 -2.603944 stasioner variabel ekspor -7.475822 < -3.574446 -2.923780 -2.599925 stasioner variabel impor -5.75339 < -3.574446 -2.923780 -2.599925 stasioner variabel kurs -8.176376 < -3.574446 -2.923780 -2.599925 stasioner sumber: eviews 7 hasil uji akar-akar unit augmented dickey fuller (adf) test pada derajat first difference menunjukkan bahwa semua data telah stasioner pada derajat yang sama yaitu first difference. setelah uji stasioneritas melalui uji akarakar unit dan derajat integrasi pada first difference terpenuhi, maka langkah selanjutnya adalah melakukan uji kointegrasi untuk mengetahui parameter jangka panjang. uji statistik yang sering dipakai adalah uji crdw, uji df dan uji adf. dalam penelitian ini yang digunakan untuk menguji kointegrasi adalah dengan uji augmented dickey fuller (adf). uji adf untuk melihat apakah residual regresii kointegrasi stasioner atau tidak. tabel 3. hasil uji akar-akar unit terhadap residual dengan adf test t-statistic prob.* augmented dickey-fuller test statistic -7.878186 0.0000 test critical values: 1% level -3.577723 5% level -2.925169 10% level -2.600658 sumber: eviews 7 berdasarkan uji adf tersebut diketaui bahwa residual pada persamaan jangka panjang sudah stasioner pada derajat level karena adf statistic secara absolute lebih besar dari pada critical value baik pada 1%, 5% maupun 10% atau dilihat dari probabalitasnya adalah 0.0000. hal ini berarti residual tidak mengandung akar-akar unit sehingga pemodelan ecm menjadi terpenuhi. hasil model ecm dalam jangka panjang diestimasi menggunakan regresi ols dengan eviews. hasilnya ditunjukkan sebagai berikut: pengaruh ekspor dan impor terhadap pertumbuhan… (ismadiyanti p. astuti, fitri j. ayuningtyas) 7 tabel 4. hasil estimasi model ecm dalam jangka panjang variable coefficient std. error t-statistic prob. c -63.07803 22.67858 -2.781393 0.0079 log_eks 4.323007 1.426257 3.031016 0.0040 log_imp -0.976283 0.608031 -1.605646 0.1153 log_kurs -1.967722 0.555363 -3.543127 0.0009 r-squared 0.284638 adjusted r-squared 0.236948 f-statistic 5.968418 prob(f-statistic) 0.001627 sumber: eviews 7 tabel 4 merupakan hasil estimasi ols dengan menggunakan model ecm dalam jangka panjang. hasil regresi tersebut untuk mengetahui hubungan antara variabel dependen dan variabel independen. variabel dependen yang digunakan adalah tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi (gdp) sedangkan variabel independen yang digunakan adalah jumlah ekspor, jumlah impor dan kurs rupiah terhadap dolar amerika. nilai adjusted rsquared sebesar 0.236948 menjelaskan bahwa variabel independen di dalam model dapat menjelaskan variasi variabel dependen sebesar 23, 6948 persen. nilai f-statistik sebesar 5.968418 menunjukkan bahwa variabel independen dalam jangka panjang seperti ekspor, impor dan kurs berpengaruh secara bersama-sama terhadap tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi. dengan menggunakan tingkat signifikansi 1%, dapat dianalisis ada dua variabel yang signifikan yaitu jumlah ekspor dan tingkat kurs rupiah sedangkan variabel impor tidak signifikan. hal tersebut dapat disimpulkan dalam jangka panjang, jumlah ekspor dan tingkat kurs rupiah berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi sedangkan jumlah impor tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. jumlah impor meningkat atau menurun tidak berpengaruh terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. dari hasil regresi dapat dilihat bahwa jumlah ekspor berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. jumlah ekspor meningkat sebesar 1 persen maka akan meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi sebesar 4.323007 persen. apabila jumlah ekspor menurun sebesar 1 persen maka akan menurunkan pertumbuhan ekonomi sebesar 4,323 persen hal tersebut sejalan dengan teori perdagangan internasional, apabila jumlah barang atau jasa yang di ekspor ke luar negeri semakin banyak maka di dalam negeri harus memproduksi barang dan jasa lebih banyak juga. semakin banyak barang yang di ekspor ke luar negeri maka arus modal yang masuk ke dalam negeri juga dalam jumlah yang banyak. arus modal masuk tersebut yang akan dikelola melalui pendanaan modal untuk usaha besar, kecil dan menengah. hal tersebut akan meningkatkan jumlah output baik barang dan jasa yang akan meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi dalam jangka panjang. tingkat kurs rupiah berpengaruh negative terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi dan signifikan. apabila tingkat kurs rupiah meningkat (depresiasi) sebesar 1 persen maka akan menurunkan tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi sebesar 1.967722 persen. sedangkan tingkat kurs rupiah menurun (apresiasi) sebesar 1 persen maka akan menaikkan tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi sebesar 1,977 persen. apabila nilai tukar terdepresiasi atau nilai uang dalam negeri menurun maka barang yang diimpor harganya akan naik. kenaikan barang impor akan menaikkan barang produksi 8 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 1, april 2018: 1-10 yang diimpor dari luar negeri sehingga produktifitas dalam negeri semakin menurun yang akan menurunkan pertumbuhan ekonomi dalam negeri. hasil estimasi model koreksi kesalahan (ecm) dalam jangka pendek ditunjukkan oleh hasil di bawah ini: tabel 5. hasil estimasi model ecm jangka pendek variable coefficient std. error t-statistic prob. c -0.666708 0.320740 -2.078655 0.0438 d(log_eks) 6.344579 2.565819 2.472731 0.0175 d(log_imp) 2.895370 1.459956 1.983190 0.0539 d(log_kurs) 1.651570 1.789498 0.922924 0.3613 ect -1.036208 0.146975 -7.050228 0.0000 r-squared 0.691479 adjusted r-squared 0.662096 f-statistic 23.53329 prob(f-statistic) 0.000000 sumber: eviews 7 hasil estimasi tabel 5 didapat koefisien variabel ect (error correction term) yaitu sebesar 1.036208 yang mempunyai makna bahwa perbedaan antara tingkat pertumbuhan dengan nilai keseimbangannya akan disesuaikan dalam waktu 1 tahun. koefisien ect ini digunakan untuk mengukur respon regressand setiap periode yang menyimpang dari keseimbangan. menurut widarjono (2009), koefisien ect dalam bentuk nilai absolute menjelaskan seberapa cepat waktu yang diperlukan untuk mendapatkan nilai keseimbangan. nilai ect sebesar -1.036208 dengan probabilitas 0.0000 yang berarti signifikan pada tingkat signifikansi 1 persen sehingga model ecm dalam jangka pendek adalah valid atau cukup baik. nilai adjusted r2 sebesar 0.662096 yang mempunyai arti bahwa sebesar 66, 21 persen variasi variabel pertumbuhan ekonomi secara bersama-sama dapat dijelaskan oleh variabel bebas yang terdiri dari ekspor, impor dan tingkat kurs. sedangkan sisanya sebesar 33.79 persen dijelaskan oleh variabel-variabel lain di luar model. nilai f-statistik sebesar 23.53329 menunjukkan bahwa variabel independen seperti ekspor, impor dan kurs secara bersama-sama berpengaruh terhadap tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi. dua variabel tersebut adalah variabel ekspor yang signifikan pada tingkat signifikansi 5 persen dan impor juga signifikan pada tingkat signifikansi 10 persen, sedangkan kurs tidak signifikan pada jangka pendek. kurs dalam jangka pendek atau kurang dari lima tahun tidak mempunyai pengaruh terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. tingkat kurs yang meningkat atau menurun tidak berpengaruh terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. ekspor berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi dalam jangka pendek. koefisien ekspor sebesar 6.344579 berarti apabila ekspor meningkat 1 persen maka akan meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi sebesar 6,344 persen dan apabila ekspor menurun sebesar 1 persen maka akan menurunkan pertumbuhan ekonomi sebesar 6,344 persen. ekspor yang meningkat akan mendorong peningkatan produksi dalam negeri. produksi yang meningkat akan menggerakkan roda perekonomian dalam negeri sehingga pertumbuhan ekonomi meningkat. pengaruh ekspor dan impor terhadap pertumbuhan… (ismadiyanti p. astuti, fitri j. ayuningtyas) 9 impor berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. koefisien impor sebesar 2.895370 berarti apabila impor meningkat 1 persen maka akan meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi sebesar 2,895 persen dan apabila impor menurun sebesar 1 persen maka akan menurunkan pertumbuhan ekonomi sebesar 2,895 persen. barang dan jasa yang digunakan untuk memenuhi kebutuhan masyarakat dan sebagai bahan baku produksi banyak yang diimpor dari negara lain. apabila barang dan jasa yang diimpor dari luar negeri meningkat maka akan mendorong peningkatan kegiatan perekonomian dalam negeri baik produksi, konsumsi dan distribusi. jika kegiatan perekonomian berjalan dengan baik maka akan meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi. simpulan kesimpulan yang dapat diambil dari penelitian ini bahwa dalam jangka panjang, jumlah ekspor dan tingkat kurs rupiah berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi sedangkan jumlah impor tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. hal tersebut sejalan dengan teori perdagangan internasional, apabila jumlah barang atau jasa yang di ekspor ke luar negeri semakin banyak maka di dalam negeri harus memproduksi barang dan jasa lebih banyak juga. kenaikan barang impor akan menaikkan barang produksi yang diimpor dari luar negeri sehingga produktifitas dalam negeri semakin menurun yang akan menurunkan pertumbuhan ekonomi dalam negeri. dalam jangka pendek terdapat dua variabel yang yang signifikan. dua variabel tersebut adalah variabel ekspor yang signifikan pada tingkat signifikansi 5 persen dan impor juga signifikan pada tingkat signifikansi 10 persen, sedangkan kurs tidak signifikan pada jangka pendek. ekspor yang meningkat akan mendorong peningkatan produksi dalam negeri. produksi yang meningkat akan menggerakkan roda perekonomian dalam negeri sehingga pertumbuhan ekonomi meningkat. apabila barang dan jasa yang diimpor dari luar negeri meningkat maka akan mendorong peningkatan kegiatan perekonomian dalam negeri baik produksi, konsumsi dan distribusi. jika kegiatan perekonomian berjalan dengan baik maka akan meningkatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi. daftar pustaka aliman. 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(2005). current account adjusment in industrial countries. journal of international money and finance vol. 24: 1278-1298. grossman, g.m. dan helpman, e. (1994). endogenous innovation in the theory of growth. 10 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 1, april 2018: 1-10 journal of perspectives, vol.8: 23-44. holland, marcio, flavio vieire dan otaviano canuto. (2004). economic growth and the balance-of-payment constraint in latin america. investigacion economica, vol.63 no.247: 45-74. mankiw, n.gregory. (2003). teori makroekonomi. jakarta: penerbit erlangga. mccombie dan thirlwall. (1994). economic growth and the balance of payment constraint. london: macmilan. razmi, arslan. (2005). balance-of-paymentconstrained growth model: the case of india, vol.27 no. 4: 655-687. reksoprayiitno, soedijono. (2002). ekonomi keuangan internasional. yogyakarta: upp amp ykpn. sugiyono. (2016). metode penelitian kuantitatif, kualitatif dan r&d. bandung: alfabeta. thirlwall. 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(2009). ekonometrika: pengantar dan aplikasinya. yogyakarta: penerbit ekonisia fe uii. microsoft word 02-hakim _21 hlm_ jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan  volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 13 ‐ 33  ekonomi regional provinsi sulawesi tenggara:   pendekatan sektor basis dan analisis input‐output  sri subanti 1 dan arif rahman hakim 2  1 fakultas ekonomi universitas sebelas maret surakarta  jalan ir. sutami 36 a surakarta 57126 telp. (0271) 646994 fax. (0271) 646655. e‐mail: subanti@uns.ac.id  2 fakultas ekonomi universitas indonesia  kampus depok 16424 – indonesia.  telp: 021‐786 7222. e‐mail: arif_rhakeem@yahoo.co.id  abstrak: ikhtisar penelitian ini mengkaji ekonomi regional di provinsi sulawesi tenggara. analisis dalam makalah ini menggunakan pendekatan export based dan analisis input-output. hasil penelitian ini yaitu (1) sektor pertanian, konstruksi, transportasi & komunikasi, dan sektor jasa menjadi sektor basis di sulawesi tenggara. (2) sektor listrik, gas, air dan pembiayaan sektor memiliki nilai positif dalam industry mix & regional shift. sedangkan sektor pertanian dan sektor jasa dapat dikategorikan dalam sektor pertumbuhan lambat dan sektor berkompetensi tinggi. (3) sektor pertambangan mempunyai pengganda output tertinggi. (4) sektor pertanian dan sektor perdagangan, hotel, restoran memiliki indeks keterkaitan ke depan lebih dari satu. (5) sektor pertambangan, sektor pertanian, sektor perdagangan hotel dan restoran memiliki indeks keterkaitan ke belakang lebih dari satu juga. (6) sektor pertanian dan sektor perdagangan, hotel, restoran menjadi sektor utama di provinsi sulawesi tenggara. sektor ini perlu dikembangkan karena dengan memperluas sektor ini diharapkan dapat mendorong sektor ekonomi lain. kata kunci: sektor berbasis ekspor, lq, shift-share, analisis input-output abstract: this paper aims to study regional economic in southeast sulawesi province. analyse in this paper used export based approach and input-output analysis. this study found that (1) agriculture sector, construction, transport & communication, and service sector become base sectors in southeast sulawesi. (2) sector electricity, gas, water and sector finance have positive value in industry mix & regional shift. otherwise, sector agriculture and sector services can categorize in slow growth sector and high competence sector. (3) sector mining have highest output multiplier. (4) sector agriculture and sector trade, hotel, restaurant have forward linkage indeks more than one. (5) sector mining, sector agriculture, and sector trade hotel restaurant have backward linkage indeks more than one too. (6) sector agriculture and sector trade hotel restaurant become key sectors in southeast sulawesi province. this sectors which need to be developed because by expanding this sector expected to push another economic sector. keywords: export based sector, lq, shift-share, input output analysis pendahuluan  pembangunan nasional mempunyai dampak  atas pembangunan daerah, sebab daerah me‐ rupakan  bagian  integral  dari  suatu  negara.  indonesia  adalah  negara  kesatuan,  dimana  rencana rencana pembangunan meliputi ren‐ cana  pembangunan  nasional  dan  rencana  pembangunan  regional.  pembangunan  eko‐ nomi  nasional  mempunyai  dampak  atas  struktur ekonomi nasional dan struktur eko‐ nomi  daerah.  pembangunan  yang  berorien‐ jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 13 ‐ 33 14  tasi pada suatu sektor tertentu, biasanya me‐ nyebabkan  prestasi  sektor  tersebut  mening‐ kat baik di tingkat nasional maupun di ting‐ kat  daerah  selama  kurun  waktu  tertentu  (soepono;  1993).  meski  demikian,  kegiatan  pembangunan  seyogyanya  lebih  ditujukan  pada  urusan  peningkatan  kualitas  masyara‐ kat,  pertumbuhan  ekonomi  dan  pemerataan  ekonomi  yang  optimal,  perluasan  tenaga  kerja,  dan  peningkatan  taraf  hidup  masya‐ rakat.  salah satu ukuran untuk melihat kinerja  pembangunan ekonomi dapat dilihat melalui  produk  domestik  bruto.  bila  konteksnya  daerah  bernama  produk  domestik  regional  bruto.  produk  domestik  regional  bruto  (pdrb) di sulawesi tenggara pada dasarnya  terdiri  dari  sembilan  sektor,  yaitu  sektor  pertanian,  pertambangan  dan  penggalian,  industri  pengolahan,  listrik  dan  air  minum,  bangunan, perdagangan, hotel dan restoran,  pengangkutan  dan  komunikasi,  keuangan,  persewaan dan jasa persahaan serta jasa‐jasa.  dalam rangka melihat fluktuasi perkem‐ bangan kinerja ekonomi tersebut akan terlihat  melalui  produk  domestik  regional  bruto  (pdrb)  secara  berkala  yaitu  pertumbuhan  yang  positif  akan  menunjukkan  adanya  pe‐ ningkatan perekonomian, sebaliknya apabila  negatif  menunjukkan  penurunan  perekono‐ mian  (azhar,  dkk;  2001).  sulawesi  tenggara  sendiri  merupakan  bagian  dari  region  yang  notabene merupakan salah satu provinsi dari  33  provinsi  yang  terdapat  di  indonesia.  menurut  data  dari  badan  pusat  statistik  (bps),  sulawesi  tenggara  mencatat  pertum‐ buhan pdrb atas dasar harga konstan se‐ besar  rp8.643.330  juta  setara  7,68  persen  di  tahun 2006 atau meningkat dari sebelumnya  sebesar rp8.026.856 juta setara 7,31 persen di  tahun 2005. pdrb atas dasar harga berlaku  secara  nominal  meningkat  namun  secara  pertumbuhannya  mengalami  penurunan,  dimana tahun 2006 sebesar rp15.270.350 juta  setara  17,64  persen  atau  meningkat  secara  nominal  dari  tahun  sebelumnya  sebesar  rp.12.683.406.798,‐ setara 26,42 persen di  ta‐ hun  2005.  pertumbuhan  pdrb  sulawesi  tenggara tahun 2001‐2006 atas dasar harga  berlaku & atas dasar harga konstan, dapat  dilihat pertumbuhannya pada gambar 1.  bagi provinsi sulawesi tenggara,  terda‐ pat tiga sektor yang dapat menyumbangkan  pdrb dalam jumlah besar yaitu sektor perta‐ nian, sektor perdagangan hotel dan restoran,  dan  sektor  jasa.  kontribusi  masing‐masing  0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 pdrb adhb pdrb adhk 2000   sumber: bps provinsi sulawesi tenggara 2008, hasil pengolahan data  gambar 1. pertumbuhan pdrb provinsi sulawesi tenggara tahun 2001‐2006  atas dasar harga berlaku & atas dasar harga konstan  studi ekonomi regional ... (sri subanti dan arif rahman h.)  15 sektor  berfluktuasi  tiap  tahunnya,  namun  ketiga  sektor  tersebut  menyumbang  hampir  lebih dari separuh struktur pdrb di sulawesi  tenggara.  dalam tabel 1  dapat  dilihat  kon‐ tribusi sektor ekonomi di sulawesi tenggara  tahun 1995 & 2002‐2006.  kontribusi sektor ekonomi yang besar ini  tentu diharapkan mampu menjadi penggerak  roda ekonomi  lokal provinsi sulawesi teng‐ gara  sehingga  kegiatan  ekonomi  yang  dila‐ kukan  menjadi  lebih  nyata  dan  signifikan.  sektor ini kemudian ditopang sektor pendu‐ kung yang menjadi fungsi total dari pereko‐ nomian.  jika  perekonomian  makin  besar  maka perlu banyak sektor pendukung dalam  perekonomian tersebut. idealnya sektor pen‐ dukung  ini dapat dipenuhi oleh masyarakat  lokal.     oleh  karenanya,  ketika  pertumbuhan  suatu  daerah  ditentukan  oleh  eksploitasi  kemanfaatan  alamiah  dan  pertumbuhan  sektor  ekonomi  daerah  yang  bersangkutan.  idealnya  suatu  daerah  seyogyanya  mampu  menyediakan  permintaan  akan  sumberdaya  lokal untuk menggerakkan ekonomi daerah,  termasuk  tenaga  kerja  dan  bahan  baku  se‐ hingga tidak mengimpor dari luar. upaya ini  diharapkan  dapat  menghasilkan  kekayaan  daerah utamanya bergeraknya perekonomian  lokal  yang  lebih  baik.  terlebih  lagi  dengan  diberlakukannya  otonomi  yang  memberi  kewenangan yang luas kepada daerah untuk  lebih bertanggung jawab terhadap perkemba‐ ngan daerahnya. upaya ini menjadi peluang  sekaligus tantangan untuk memacu perkem‐ bangan ekonomi regional sulawesi tenggara  memperhatikan  keserasian  dan  keterpaduan  perkembangan  ekonomi  lokal  agar  tidak  terjadi ketimpangan wilayah.    berdasarkan uraian di atas, perlu kiranya  dilakukan  studi  ekonomi  regional  dalam  perekonomian  di  sulawesi  tenggara  sekali‐ gus pemetaan sektor ekonomi ekonomi baik  melalui  pendekatan  sektor  basis  maupun  analisis input output.  tinjauan  literatur  dalam  penelitian  ini  sebagai berikut:   sektor  basis.  suatu  perencanaan  pem‐ tabel 1. kontribusi pdrb provinsi sulawesi tenggara menurut sektor ekonomi (persen) 1995*  pdrb harga berlaku  pdrb harga konstan  sektor ekonomi  struktur  ouput  nilai  tambah  2002  2004  2006  2002  2004  2006  1  pertanian  45.69%  43.58%  41.48%  41.13%  40.73%  38.09%  37.41%  36.19%  2  pertambangan &  penggalian  5.62%  4.35%  3.70%  5.01%  4.05%  3.54%  5.65%  5.01%  3  industri  0.88%  0.69%  7.03%  6.20%  6.85%  8.47%  7.52%  8.75%  4  listrik, gas, dan air  bersih  0.87%  0.69%  0.75%  1.12%  1.01%  0.54%  0.64%  0.70%  5  bangunan/konstruksi  8.23%  8.09%  7.67%  7.00%  6.72%  8.04%  7.70%  7.77%  6  perdagangan, hotel, &  restoran  19.95%  20.34%  14.90%  14.95%  14.40%  16.11%  15.30%  15.11%  7  pengangkutan &  komunikasi  4.09%  5.41%  6.19%  6.57%  7.61%  6.78%  7.35%  7.59%  8  keuangan, sewa, & js  pershn  12.55%  14.94%  3.71%  4.61%  5.31%  3.86%  4.85%  5.55%  9  jasa‐jasa  2.12%  1.89%  14.58%  13.41%  13.33%  14.56%  13.60%  13.32%  sumber: bps sulawesi tenggara tahun 2008    * tabel input output 1995  jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 13 ‐ 33 16  bangunan  ekonomi  diperlukan  penentuan  kegiatan  kegiatan  di  antara  sektor‐sektor  perekonomian.  pada  dasarnya,  masing‐ma‐ sing  sektor  tidak  berdiri  sendiri  melainkan  saling berkaitan. kemajuan suatu sektor tidak  akan terlepas dari dukungan yang diberikan  oleh  sektor  lainnya  sehingga  sebenarnya  keterkaitan antarsektor  ini dapat dimanfaat‐ kan  untuk  memajukan  seluruh  sektor  yang  terdapat dalam perekonomian. dengan meli‐ hat keterkaitan antarsektor dan memperhati‐ kan  efisiensi  serta  efektivitas  yang  hendak  dicapai  dalam  pembangunan,  maka  sektor  yang  mempunyai  keterkaitan  tinggi  dengan  banyak  sektor  pada  dasarnya  merupakan  sektor  yang  perlu  mendapatkan  perhatian  lebih (nazara; 2009).      teori  ekonomi  basis  mengklarifikasikan  seluruh kegiatan ekonomi ke dalam dua sek‐ tor  yaitu  sektor  basis  dan  sektor  non  basis.  deliniasi  wilayah  dilakukan  berdasarkan  konsep perwilayahan yaitu konsep homoge‐ nitas, nodalitas, dan administrasi (hendayana;  2003).  dijelaskan  oleh  rusastra,  dkk  bahwa  yang  dimaksud  kegiatan  basis  merupakan  kegiatan  suatu  masyarakat  yang  hasilnya  baik  berupa  barang  maupun  jasa  ditujukan  untuk ekspor keluar dari lingkungan masya‐ rakat atau yang berorientasi keluar, regional,  nasional, dan internasional (hendayana; 2003).  konsep  efisiensi  teknis  maupun  efisiensi  ekonomis sangat menentukan dalam pertum‐ buhan basis suatu wilayah. sedangkan kegia‐ tan non‐basis merupakan kegiatan masyara‐ kat  yang  hasilnya  baik  berupa  barang  atau  jasa diperuntukkan bagi masyarakat itu sen‐ diri  dalam  kawasan  kehidupan  ekonomi  masyarakat  tersebut.  konsep  swasembada,  mandiri,  kesejahteraan,  dan  kualitas  hidup  sangat menentukan dalam kegiatan non basis  ini.   soepono  (1993)  juga  menjelaskan  bahwa  studi basis ekonomi regional umumnya beru‐ paya  untuk  mengenali  aktivitas  ekonomi  wilayah,  kemudian  meramalkan  pertumbu‐ han dan mengevaluasi dampak aktivitas eko‐ nominya. basis ekonomi dari sebuah komu‐ nitas  terdiri  atas  aktivitas‐aktivitas  yang  menciptakan  pendapatan  dan  kesempatan  kerja utama pada sektor yang menjadi  tum‐ puan  perekonomian.  studi  basis  ekonomi  menemukenali  sumber  utama  dari  penda‐ patan  dan  kesempatan  kerja  sebagai  basis  ekonomi dari suatu wilayah. semua pertum‐ buhan ekonomi ditentukan oleh sektor dasar.  sebaliknya pendapatan dan kesempatan kerja  non  basis  ditentukan  oleh  pendapatan  dan  kesempatan kerja sektor basis.     meski perkembangan tiap sektor ekono‐ mi terus terjadi sehingga berakumulasi pada  peningkatan  output,  tidak  serta  merta  men‐ cerminkan pemerataan pendapatan masyara‐ kat  dan  penciptaan  lapangan  kerja.  maka  sektor  ekonomi  basis  perlu  didorong  untuk  meningkatkan  pemerataan  pendapatan  dan  penyediaan  kesempatan  kerja.  oleh  karena‐ nya sektor  ini mesti mendapatkan perhatian  pemerintah karena memiliki dasar yang kuat  sebagai  penopang  kegiatan  perekonomian.  melalui  upaya  ini,  pemerintah  diharapkan  mampu menurunkan  jumlah pengangguran,  meningkatkan  distribusi  pendapatan,  dan  mengurangi angka kemiskinan (yamin; 2005).  pengertian  sektor  basis  pada  dasarnya  harus dikaitkan dengan suatu bentuk perban‐ dingan, baik itu perbandingan berskala inter‐ nasional,  regional,  maupun  nasional.  dalam  kaitannya  dengan  lingkup  internasional,  suatu  sektor  dikatakan  unggul  jika  sektor  tersebut mampu bersaing dengan sektor yang  sama dengan negara lain. sedangkan lingkup  nasional,  suatu  sektor  dapat  dikategorikan  sebagai  sektor  unggulan  apabila  sektor  di  wilayah  tertentu  mampu  bersaing  dengan  sektor  yang  sama  yang  dihasilkan  oleh  wilayah  lain  di  pasar  nasional  atau  pasar  studi ekonomi regional ... (sri subanti dan arif rahman h.)  17 domestik.  apabila  sektor  tersebut  menjadi  sektor  basis  maka  sektor  tersebut  harus  mengekspor  produknya  ke  daerah  lain,  sebaliknya  apabila  sektor  tersebut  menjadi  sektor non basis maka sektor  tersebut harus  mengimpor produk sektor tersebut ke daerah  lain  (azhar, dkk; 2001 dan  antara; 2005).  prospek  pertumbuhan  output  di  sektor  basis  sangatlah  penting,  selain  dapat  berpe‐ ngaruh  kepada  proyeksi  kesempatan  kerja  untuk satu periode di masa yang akan datang  pada  sektor  itu  sendiri  maupun  yang  lain.  kondisi  ini  menyebabkan  perlunya  campur  tangan  pemerintah  guna  menitikberatkan  program  pembangunan  pada  sektor  yang  berpotensi  untuk  dapat  menyerap  tenaga  kerja  lebih  banyak.  prioritas  tersebut  diha‐ rapkan dapat memperluas kesempatan kerja  untuk  mengurangi  jumlah  pengangguran  yang  cederung  semakin  meningkat  seiring  dengan  peningkatan  jumlah  angkatan  kerja,  serta  meningkatkan  kesejahteraan  masya‐ rakat.  analisis  input‐output.  untuk  mengi‐ dentifikasi  sumber  pertumbuhan  output,  maka dilakukan analisis input‐output. analisis  input‐output pertama kali diperkenalkan oleh  w. leontief pada tahun 1930‐an. baumol (1972)  dalam nazara (2005) menyatakan bahwa ana‐ lisis input‐output sebagai usaha untuk mema‐ sukkan  fenomena  keseimbangan  umum  da‐ lam analisis empiris sisi produksi. analisis ini  melihat keterkaitan antarsektor dalam suatu  perekonomian.  dalam  analisis  input‐output  kegiatan  produksi  suatu  sektor  akan  meng‐ hasilkan dampak ekonomi pada sektor‐sektor  lainnya di dalam perekonomian tersebut. di  satu sisi jika suatu sektor tertentu melakukan  kegiatan  produksi,  hal  ini  berarti  sektor  tersebut meningkatkan permintaannya terha‐ dap hasil produksi sektor lainnya. di sisi lain,  peningkatan  output  di  sektor  tersebut  juga  menciptakan  penawaran  bagi  sektor‐sektor  lain yang membutuhkan dari sektor tersebut.  informasi mengenai transaksi barang dan  jasa  yang  terjadi  antarsektor  produksi  di  dalam  suatu  ekonomi  untuk  analisis  input  output  disajikan  dalam  bentuk  matriks  (re‐ sudarmo et.al, 2002). data yang terdapat dalam   tabel  i‐o  menunjukkan  hubungan  dagang  antarsektor  yang  berada  dalam  perekono‐ mian suatu negara. setiap baris menunjukkan  jumlah penjualan dari sebuah sektor. karena  sebuah sektor tidak menjual barangnya kepa‐ da  sektor  yang  ada,  maka  umum  dijumpai  angka nol dalam sebuah baris di dalam tabel  i‐o. kolom dalam tabel i‐o mencatat pembe‐ lian yang dilakukan sebuah sektor  terhadap  barang dan  jasa yang dihasilkan oleh berba‐ gai sektor yang ada dalam wilayah tersebut.  jika  angka yang  berada  dalam  kolom  suatu  sektor  banyak  dijumpai  angka  nol,  hal  ini  karena  sebuah  sektor  tidak  selalu  membeli  barang dan jasa dari seluruh sektor yang ada  di perekonomian negara yang bersangkutan  (sahara & resudarmo, 2002).  keterkaitan antarsektor  ini, selain mem‐ pengaruhi  jumlah produksi secara keseluru‐ han  di  dalam  perekonomian,  juga  dapat  mempengaruhi  jumlah  tenaga  kerja  yang  dibutuhkan serta pendapatan. hal ini terjadi  karena untuk memproduksi output di sektor  tersebut dibutuhkan tenaga kerja, dan tenaga  kerja  tersebut  akan  mendapatkan  tambahan  pendapatannya  dari  kegiatannya  tersebut.  dengan  demikian  adanya  keterkaitan  antar‐ sektor  dalam  perekonomian,  tidak  hanya  akan mempengaruhi hasil produksi di dalam  sektor‐sektor perekonomian secara keseluru‐ han, tetapi  juga akan mempengaruhi  jumlah  tenaga kerja dan pendapatan di dalam pere‐ konomian secara keseluruhan.   di  indonesia,  tabel  input  output  dirilis  oleh badan pusat statistik pertama kali tahun  1971  dan  kemudian  secara  berkala  disusun  tabel i‐o untuk tahun 1975, 1980, 1985, 1990,  jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 13 ‐ 33 18  1995,  2000,  2003,  dan  2005.  kerangka  dasar  yang digunakan pada setiap  tabel  input out‐ put  diusahakan  untuk  konsisten  satu  sama  lain. namun demikian karena jenis dan mutu  data  yang  digunakan  sebagai  bahan  dalam  penyusunan  tabel  input output  juga berkem‐ bang,  maka  penyusunan  tabel  input  output  pun  pada  prakteknya  mengalami  berbagai  pengembangan  dan  penyempurnaan,  khu‐ susnya dalam hal klasifikasi, metode penyu‐ sunan dan cara penyajian.  tabel  input  output  ini  sering  digunakan  untuk memberikan gambaran secara menye‐ luruh mengenai struktur perekonomian yang  mencakup  struktur  nilai  tambah  masing‐ masing sektor, struktur input antara, struktur  penyediaan barang dan  jasa, struktur ekspor  dan impor, struktur permintaan dan struktur  keterkaitan  antarsektor  (virgowansyah  &  nazara, 2007). selain analisis struktur pereko‐ nomian  sebagaimana  telah  disebutkan  di  atas,  juga dilakukan analisis  lain yang meli‐ puti  pengganda  output  (output  multiplier),  pengganda  pendapatan  (income  multiplier),  pengganda  tenaga  kerja  (employment  multi‐ plier)  dan  analisis  keterkaitan  (linkage  analy‐ sis).  metode  jenis data dan sumber data  studi  ini  menggunakan  data  runtun  waktu  (2001–2006) yang diperoleh dari badan pusat  statistik  sulawesi  tenggara  serta  data  lain  yang relevan dengan studi yang tengah dila‐ kukan.  data  tersebut  selanjutnya  dianalisis  dengan  melakukan  pendekatan  deskriptif  dan kuantitatif. pendekatan deskriptif adalah  penyajian  dan  penyusunan  data  ke  dalam  tabel  dan  grafik,  sedangkan  pendekatan  kuantitatif adalah data yang diperoleh kemu‐ dian dianalisis dengan menggunakan metode  location quotient dan metode shift‐share.   berikutnya,  untuk  analisis  input  output,  data yang digunakan adalah data input‐out‐ put sulawesi tenggara tahun 1995. tabel  in‐ put‐output  (i‐o)  tersebut menggunakan  tran‐ saksi  total  pada  harga  produsen.  tabel  i‐o  yang dipublikasikan oleh badan pusat statis‐ tik  (bps)  mempunyai  klasifikasi  54  sektor.  penggunaan  tabel  analisis  input‐output  yang  dilakukan  pada  studi  ini  berdasarkan  i‐o  klasifikasi  9  sektor.  instrumen  yang  dipakai  untuk  mengolah  dan  menganalisis  data  dalam studi ini adalah microsoft excel.  metode analisis basis ekspor  metode  basis  ekspor  menekankan  bahwa  kegiatan ekspor merupakan mesin pertumbu‐ han.  tumbuh  atau  tidaknya  suatu  wilayah  ditentukan  kinerja  wilayah  itu  sebagai  eksportir  ke  daerah  lain  atau  tidak.  maka,  ketika  sektor  pengekspor  merupakan  sektor  basis  maka  sektor  lain  harusnya  mampu  menopang  sektor  basis  sehingga  saat  total  perekonomian makin besar maka pendukung  di  dalamnya  makin  banyak.  seyogyanya,  pendukung sektor basis  ini mampu disedia‐ kan oleh perekonomian lokal sehingga rupiah  yang diciptakan tidak lari dari wilayah yang  bersangkutan.  secara  matematis  dapat  ditu‐ liskan sebagai berikut (nazara, 2009):  total perekonomian = base+non base atau  t=b+n dimana n=nt.  jadi t=b+nt sehingga t= n1 1 b, dimana  n1 1   merupakan  multiplier  export  based  sector.  untuk menghitung b terlebih dahulu dilaku‐ kan  identifikasi sektor basis melalui metode  location quotient.  metode location quotient  metode  location  quotient  adalah  metode  studi ekonomi regional ... (sri subanti dan arif rahman h.)  19 digunakan  untuk  mengetahui  sektor  basis  dan sektor nonbasis dengan membandingkan  persentase sumbangan masing‐masing sektor  dalam pdrb sulawesi tenggara dengan per‐ sentase  sumbangan  sektor  yang  sama  pada  pdrb jawa tengah. menurut kadariah (1987),  metode ini memiliki bentuk persamaan seba‐ gai berikut:  t i t i v v v v lq     (1 )  dimana; lq adalah location quotient, vi adalah  output sektor i di suatu daerah, vi adalah out‐ put  sektor  i  nasional,  vt  adalah  output  total  daerah tersebut, vt adalah output total nasio‐ nal   hasil perhitungan lq menghasilkan tiga  kriteria yaitu (1) lq>1; artinya komoditas itu  menjadi basis atau menjadi sumber pertum‐ buhan.  komoditas  memiliki  keunggulan  komparatif, hasilnya tidak saja dapat meme‐ nuhi kebutuhan wilayah bersangkutan akan  tetapi juga dapat diekspor keluar wilayah, (2)   lq=1;  artinya  komoditas  itu  tergolong  non  basis, tidak memiliki keunggulan komparatif.  produksinya hanya cukup untuk memenuhi  kebutuhan wilayah sendiri dan tidak mampu  untuk diekspor, (3) lq<1; artinya komoditas  juga termasuk non basis. produksi komoditas  di suatu wilayah  tidak dapat memenuhi ke‐ butuhan sendiri sehingga perlu pasokan dari  luar.   metode dekomposisi shift‐share   shift‐share adalah suatu metode dekomposisi  sehingga kemudian dikenal dengan shift‐share  decomposition.  dekomposisi  itu  melakukan  pemilahan  suatu  elemen  kedalam  beberapa  elemen  sehingga  ketika  disatukan  lagi  akan  kembali  ke  angka  awal.  dekomposisi  yang  dilakukan  adalah  angka  pertumbuhan  eko‐ nomi  maka  dekomposisi  harus  mempunyai  nilai  ekonomi,  perbandingan  wilayah  studi  dan wilayah referensi, serta  logika ekonomi.  oleh karenanya, metode shift‐share ini kemu‐ dian  dikenal  dengan  shift‐share  analysis  (nazara,  2009).  formula  metode  ini  sebagai  berikut:       gi = g + (gi – g) + (gi ‐ gi )  (2)  keterangan; gi adalah pertumbuhan ekonomi  regional sektor i, gi adalah pertumbuhan eko‐ nomi nasional sektor  i, g adalah pertumbu‐ han  ekonomi  nasional,  g  adalah  pertum‐ buhan ekonomi regional  analisis  ini  memberikan  data  tentang  kinerja perekonomian regional dalam 3 (tiga)  bagian  yang  berhubungan  satu  sama  lain  yaitu national share (g), diukur dengan cara  menganalisis  perubahan  pengerjaan  agregat  perekonomian  secara  keseluruhan,  industry  mix (gi–g), mengukur perubahan relatif, per‐ tumbuhan  atau  penurunan  pada  daerah  di‐ bandingkan  dengan  perekonomian  yang  le‐ bih besar yang dijadikan acuan. pengukuran  ini  memungkinkan  kita  untuk  mengetahui  apakah perekonomian daerah  terkonsentrasi  pada  industri‐industri  yang  tumbuh  lebih  cepat ketimbang perekonomian yang dijadi‐ kan acuan, regional shift (gi‐gi), menentukan  seberapa jauh daya saing industri daerah (lo‐ kal)  dengan  perekonomian  yang  dijadikan  acuan. oleh karena itu,  jika pergeseran dife‐ rensial  dari  suatu  industri  adalah  positif,  maka  industri  tersebut  lebih  tinggi  daya  saingnya ketimbang industri yang sama pada  perekonomian yang dijadikan acuan.   metode input‐output  kerangka dasar model input output  kerangka dasar model i‐o terdiri atas empat  kuadran  seperti  disajikan  pada  gambar  2.  kuadran pertama menunjukkan arus barang  jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 13 ‐ 33 20  dan jasa yang dihasilkan dan digunakan oleh  sektor‐sektor  dalam  suatu  perekonomian.  kuadran ini menunjukkan distribusi penggu‐ naan  barang  dan  jasa  untuk  suatu  proses  produksi sehingga disebut juga sebagai tran‐ saksi  antara  (intermediate  transaction).  kua‐ dran  kedua  menunjukkan  permintaan  akhir  (final demand), yaitu penggunaan barang dan  jasa  bukan  untuk  proses  produksi  yang  biasanya terdiri atas konsumsi rumah tangga,  pengeluaran  pemerintah,  persediaan  (stock),  investasi  dan  ekspor.  kuadran  ketiga  mem‐ perlihatkan  input  primer  sektor‐sektor  pro‐ duksi, yaitu semua balas jasa faktor produksi  yang  biasanya  meliputi  upah  dan  gaji,  sur‐ plus usaha, penyusutan dan pajak tidak lang‐ sung. kuadran keempat memperlihatkan  in‐ put primer yang langsung didistribusikan ke  sektor‐sektor permintaan akhir (bps, 1995).  tiap  kuadran  dinyatakan  dalam  bentuk  matriks.  bentuk  seluruh  matriks  menunjuk‐ kan  kerangka  model  i‐o  yang  berisi  uraian  statistik mengenai  transaksi barang dan  jasa  antarberbagai kegiatan ekonomi dalam suatu  periode  tertentu. kumpulan sektor produksi  pada kuadran pertama, yang berisi kelompok  produsen,  memanfaatkan  berbagai  sumber‐ daya  dalam  menghasilkan  barang  dan  jasa  yang  secara  makro  disebut  sebagai  sistem  produksi. sektor di dalam sistem produksi ini  dinamakan  sektor  endogen.  sektor  di  luar  sistem  produksi,  yaitu  yang  berada  di  kua‐ dran kedua, ketiga, dan keempat dinamakan  sektor eksogen. maka, terlihat bahwa model  i‐o membedakan antara sektor endogen de‐ ngan sektor eksogen. output, selain diguna‐ kan  dalam  sistem  produksi  dalam  bentuk  permintaan  antara,  juga  digunakan  di  luar  sistem  produksi  dalam  bentuk  permintaan  akhir.  input  yang  digunakan  dalam  sistem  produksi ada yang berasal dari dalam sistem  produksi  berupa  input  antara  dan  juga  ada  yang berasal dari  luar sistem produksi yang  disebut  input  primer.  gambar  2  menyajikan  kerangka dasar model input output.  selain transaksi antarsektor, juga tercatat  transaksi lain. perusahaan dalam suatu sektor  menjual  hasil  produknya  ke  konsumen  rumah  tangga,  pemerintah,  dan  perusahaan  luar negeri. penjualan ini dapat dikelompok‐ kan ke dalam suatu neraca yang disebut kon‐ sumsi  akhir  (resudarmo  et.al, 2002; sahara &  resudarmo,  2002).  perusahaan  juga  membu‐ tuhkan  jasa  tenaga  kerja  dan  memberikan  kompensasi  kepada  pemilik  modal.  pem‐ bayaran jasa kepada tenaga kerja dan pemilik  modal disebut pembayaran untuk nilai tam‐ bah.  selain  itu  perusahaan  membeli  barang  dan jasa dari luar negri atau dengan kata lain  melakukan impor. untuk memudahkan ilus‐ trasinya, tabel 2 menyajikan simplifikasi dari  tabel i‐o.  dari tabel 2 dapat dibuat dua persamaan  neraca berimbang:  baris:   nixfx ii n j ij ,...,3,2,1; 1      (3)     kuadran i :   transaksi antarkegiatan   kuadran ii: permintaan akhir  (nxn)  (nxm)  kuadran iii:   input primer sektor produksi  kuadran iv:   input primer permintaan akhir  (pxn)  (pxm)    sumber: bps (1995)  gambar 2. kerangka dasar model input‐output  studi ekonomi regional ... (sri subanti dan arif rahman h.)  21 kolom:      n i jjjij nixmvx 1 ,...,3,2,1;   (4)  dimana xij adalah aliran nilai barang dan jasa  dari sektor  i ke sektor  j; fi adalah  total kon‐ sumsi akhir; vj adalah nilai tambah; dan mj  adalah impor.   definisi neraca berimbang adalah jumlah  produksi  sama  dengan  jumlah  masukan.  aliran dapat ditransformasikan menjadi koe‐ fisien‐koefisien dengan mengasumsikan bah‐ wa  jumlah berbagai  pembelian  adalah  tetap  untuk sebuah tingkat total keluaran dan tidak  ada  kemungkinan  subtitusi  antara  sebuah  bahan  baku  masukan  dengan  bahan  baku  masukan lainnya. koefisien‐koefisien ini ada‐ lah:  aij = xij / xj  (5)  atau  xij = aij xj   (6)   dengan mensubtitusikan persamaan (6) ke (3)  diperoleh:     n j iijij nixfxa 1 ,...,3,2,1;    (7)   dalam  notasi  matriks  persamaan  (7)  dapat ditulis sebagai berikut:  ax + f = x   (8)  dimana aij anxn ; fif ; dan xixnx1  dengan melakukan parameterisasi lanjut  persamaan (8) didapat hubungan dasar tabel  i‐o:    xfai  1   (9)  notasi    xfai  1   dinamakan  seba‐ gai matriks kebalikan leontief   (matriks mul‐ tiplier  masukan).  matriks  ini  mengandung  informasi penting  tentang bagaimana kenai‐ kan produksi dari suatu sektor akan menye‐ babkan  berkembangnya  sektor  lain.  karena  setiap  sektor  memiliki  pola  yang  berbeda,  maka  dampak  perubahan  produksi  suatu  sektor  terhadap  total  produksi  sektor  lain  berbeda  pula.  matriks  kebalikan  leontief  merangkum seluruh dampak dari perubahan  produksi suatu sektor terhadap total produk‐ si sektor lain ke dalam koefisien yang disebut  multiplier.  efek  pengganda  dan  analisis  keterkaitan  antarsektor  1. efek pengganda ouput. analisis penggan‐ da output (output multiplier) bertujuan untuk  melihat dampak perubahan permintaan akhir  suatu sektor terhadap semua sektor yang ada  tabel 2. simplifikasi tabel i‐o sektor pembeli  sektor penjual  1  2  …  n  permintaan  akhir  total  produksi  1  x11  x12  …  x1n  f1  x1  2  x21  x22  …  x2n  f2  x2  ..  …  …  …  …  …  …  n  xn1  xn2  …  xnn  fn  xn  nilai tambah  v1  v2  …  vn      impor  m1  m2  …  mn      total masukan  x1  x2  …  xn        sumber: resudarmo et.al (2002); nazara (2005)  jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 13 ‐ 33 22  tiap  satuan  perubahan  jenis  pengganda.  peningkatan permintaan akhir di suatu sektor  j,  tidak  hanya  akan  meningkatkan  output  produksi sektor  j, tapi  juga akan meningkat‐ kan  output  sektor‐sektor  lain  dalam  pereko‐ nomian.  peningkatan  output  sektor‐sektor  lain tercipta akibat adanya efek langsung dan  efek  tidak  langsung  dari  peningkatan  per‐ mintaan akhir sektor j (miller and blair, 1985).  prosedur  pengukuran  dimulai  dengan  me‐ rumuskan dampak pendapatan yakni sebagai  berikut:   oj =  n i ij   (10)  dimana oj adalah pengganda output sektor  j,  ij adalah elemen matriks kebalikan leontief.   2.  efek  pengganda  pendapatan.  metode  ini  digunakan untuk melihat besarnya kenaikan  total  pendapatan  masyarakat  untuk  setiap  kenaikan satu satuan output yang dihasilkan  suatu sektor. sebuah sektor dikatakan mem‐ punyai  peranan  yang  tinggi  dalam  menarik  pendapatan  masyarakat  jika  pengukuran  indeksnya  lebih  besar  dari  satu.  prosedur  pengukuran  dimulai  dengan  merumuskan  dampak pendapatan yakni sebagai berikut:  m =  ^ v 1)1(  da   (11)  dimana; m adalah matriks dampak pendapa‐ tan berukuran nxn; v̂  adalah matriks koefisi‐ en pendapatan berukuran nxn;  1)1(  da adalah  matriks pengganda output total.  matriks  v̂ merupakan matriks diagonal.  dengan demikian, dampak pendapatan ada‐ lah perkalian matriks diagonal koefisien pen‐ dapatan dengan pengganda output. dampak  perubahan permintaan akhir  terhadap peru‐ bahan pendapatan menjadi:  favm  1 ^ )1(   (12)  angka  pengganda  pendapatan  untuk  sektor j ditentukan oleh rumus:    j n i ij j v m y   1   (13)  dimana yj adalah pengganda pendapatan, mij  adalah unsur dari matriks dampak pendapa‐ tan baris i kolom j, vj adalah  koefisien penda‐ patan sektor j  angka  yj  mengandung  arti  berapa  pe‐ nambahan  (pengurangan)  pendapatan  bagi  perekonomian  secara  keseluruhan  jika  pen‐ dapatan  para  pekerja  di  sektor  j  meningkat            (berkurang ) sebesar satu satuan uang.  3. efek pengganda kesempatan kerja. meto‐ de ini digunakan melihat peran suatu sektor  dalam  hal  meningkatnya  besarnya  jumlah  tenaga  kerja  yang  dapat  diserap  oleh  suatu  perekonomian. suatu sektor dikatakan memi‐ liki  peran  yang  tinggi  jika  pengukuran  in‐ deksnya  lebih  besar  dari  satu.  dampak  ke‐ sempatan  kerja  dapat  dirumuskan  sebagai  berikut:  1 ^ )1(  dale   (14)  dimana;  e  adalah  matriks  dampak kesempa‐ tan  kerja,  l̂ adalah  matriks  koefisien  tenaga  kerja yaitu berisi rasio tenaga kerja terhadap  total input tiap sektor.   matriks  ini  adalah  matriks  diagonal  dengan komponennya diperoleh dengan    lj =  j j x tk   (15)  dimana tkj adalah jumlah tenaga kerja sektor  j, xj adalah total input sektor j  perubahan  jumlah  tenaga  kerja  yang  dibutuhkan  karena  perubahan  permintaan  akhir  domestik  tiap  sektor  dirumuskan  dengan:  dd fale  )1( ^   (16)  studi ekonomi regional ... (sri subanti dan arif rahman h.)  23 angka  pengganda  kesempatan  kerja  sektor j ditentukan oleh rumus:  j n i ij j l e z   1   (17)  dimana zj adalah pengganda kesempatan kerja  (employment  multiplier  sektor  j),  eij  adalah  elemen matriks dampak kesempatan kerja (e)  baris i kolom j, lj adalah koefisien tenaga kerja  j.  angka  zj  mengandung  arti  berapa  pe‐ nambahan  (pengurangan)  kesempatan  kerja  bagi  perekonomian  secara  keseluruhan  jika  kesempatan kerja di sektor j meningkat (ber‐ kurang) sebesar satu orang.  4.  analisis  keterkaitan.  melalui  tabel  input  output dapat juga dilihat atau dianalisis keter‐ kaitan  total  antarsektor  (total  sektor  linkage  effect)  yakni  pertama,  efek  berantai  kepada  sektor  lain  yang  menggunakan  output  dari  sektor pertama sebagai  inputnya, yang dise‐ but  indeks  keterkaitan  langsung  ke  depan.  baik kedua, efek berantai kepada sektor yang  memberi  input  kepada sektor  tertentu,  yang  disebut  indeks  keterkaitan  ke  belakang  (hartono, 2009).    analisis keterkaitan langsung ke depan.  konsep  ini  diartikan  sebagai  kemampuan  suatu sektor untuk mendorong pertumbuhan  produksi sektor lain yang memakai input dari  sektor  ini.  tingkat  keterkaitan  langsung  ke  depan  dapat  dilihat  dari  jumlah  nilai  koefisien  input yang sebaris dengan sektor  i  atau  jumlah elemen matriks a pada baris  i.  semakin besar angka ini ketika bernilai lebih  besar dari satu menunjukkan semakin besar  tingkat keterkaitan  langsung kedepan sektor  i. penghitungannya sebagai berikut:       n i n j ij n j ij i a an ikdl 1 1 1   (18)  dimana ikdli adalah indeks keterkaitan lang‐ sung  ke  depan  sektor  i,  aij  adalah  koefisien  input antara sektor j yang berasal dari sektor i  analisis keterkaitan langsung ke bela‐ kang.  konsep  ini  diartikan  sebagai  kemam‐ puan suatu sektor untuk meningkatkan per‐ tumbuhan  industri  hulunya.  tingkat  keter‐ kaitan  langsung  kebelakang  dapat  dilihat  dari  jumlah  nilai  koefisien  input  antara  dari  sektor j atau jumlah elemen matriks a  pada  kolom  j.  semakin  besar  angka  ini  ketika  bernilai  lebih  besar  dari  satu  menunjukkan  semakin besar keterkaitan  langsung ke bela‐ kang. pengukuran  indeks  ini adalah sebagai  berikut:       n i n j ij n i ij j a an ikbl 1 1 1   (19)  dimana ikblj adalah indeks keterkaitan lang‐ sung ke belakang sektor j, aij adalah koefisien  input antara sektor j yang berasal dari sektor  i.  hasil dan pembahasan  pada bagian  ini akan ditampilkan hasil esti‐ masi dengan menggunakan metode yang te‐ lah diuraikan di atas. berikut penyajian hasil  pengolahan serta pembahasannya.  metode analisis basis ekspor      1.  metode  location  quotient.  metode  ini  digunakan  untuk  mengetahui  apakah  ada  keunggulan komparatif dalam perekonomian  daerah yang dianalisis sehingga dapat dike‐ tahui sektor basis ekonomi wilayah sulawesi  tenggara.  hasil  analisis  dapat  dilihat  pada  lampiran tabel l1.   berdasarkan  analisis  maka  yang  terma‐ suk sektor basis di sulawesi tenggara adalah  sektor  pertanian,  sektor  bangunan,  sektor  jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 13 ‐ 33 24  pengangkutan & komunikasi, dan sektor jasa.   selain  itu  dengan  menggunakan  koefi‐ sien  lq  dapat  juga  diketahui  pengganda  sektor  basis.  hasilnya  dapat  dilihat  pada  lampiran  tabel  l2  tampak  nilai  pengganda  cukup  besar.  nilai  ini  mengandung  makna  bahwa  sektor  basis  perlu  ditopang  oleh  sektor  non  basis  atau  sektor  pendukung  sehingga keduanya  dapat berkontribusi pada  total  perekonomian  sulawesi  tenggara.  jika  perekonomian  makin  besar  maka  perlu  banyak  sektor  pendukung  dalam  perekono‐ mian  tersebut  yang  harusnya  mampu  disediakan oleh perekonomian lokal.  meski demikian masih ada peluang bagi  sulawesi  tenggara  untuk  mengembangkan  sektor lain seperti sektor perdagangan, hotel,  dan  restoran  karena  potensi  wisata  belum  digarap  secara  optimal  meski  memiliki  po‐ tensi yang besar dan beragam seperti pulau  wakatobi.  padahal  sektor  ini  memiliki  kon‐ tribusi  cukup  besar  dalam  pembentukan  pdrb  di  sulawesi  tenggara  seperti  terlihat  pada tabel 1.  2. metode dekomposisi shift‐share. metode  ini digunakan untuk mengetahui perubahan  struktur  ekonomi  daerah  studi  bila  diban‐ dingkan  dengan  daerah  referensi  sehingga  dapat  ditentukan  kinerja  atau  produktivitas  ekonomi  daerah  dibanding  dengan  daerah  yang  lebih  besar.  hasil  analisis  disajikan  dalam lampiran tabel l3.   berdasarkan  estimasi  dapat  dijelaskan  pertumbuhan  tiap  sektor  ekonomi  di  sulawesi  tenggara  dari  tahun  2002  hingga  tahun  2006  yang  dipengaruhi  komponen‐ komponen:  pertama,  tahun  2003  pertumbu‐ han tiap sektor ekonomi di sulawesi tengga‐ ra  disumbang  oleh  pertumbuhan  ekonomi  nasional  (national  share)  sebesar  4,63  persen.  industry  mix  bernilai  positif  yang  dimiliki  oleh sektor pertanian, pertambangan dan ga‐ lian, listrik, gas, dan air bersih, pengangkutan  dan  komunikasi,  serta  keuangan,  sewa,  dan  jasa  perusahaan  menunjukkan  bahwa  per‐ tumbuhan  sektor  ekonomi  tersebut  lebih  tinggi  daripada  pertumbuhan  ekonomi  di  tingkat  nasional.  sebaliknya  industry  mix  bernilai negatif yang dimiliki oleh sektor  in‐ dustri,  bangunan,  perdagangan,  hotel,  dan  restoran serta  jasa menunjukkan bahwa per‐ tumbuhan  sektor  tersebut  lebih  kecil  dari  pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional. regional shift  bernilai  positif  pada  sektor  pertanian,  per‐ tambangan  dan  galian,  listrik,  gas,  dan  air  bersih, pengangkutan dan komunikasi, keua‐ ngan,  sewa,  dan  jasa  perusahaan  serta  jasa‐ jasa menunjukkan bahwa pertumbuhan sek‐ tor  ekonomi  tersebut  lebih  tinggi  daripada  pertumbuhan sektor ekonomi sejenis di ting‐ kat  nasional.  ini  juga  menunjukkan  bahwa  kontribusi  sektor  ekonomi  tersebut  cukup  besar  dibanding  kontribusi  sektor  sejenis  di  wilayah  sulawesi.  begitu  juga  sebaliknya  untuk regional shift yang bernilai negatif.   kedua,  pada  tahun  2006  pertumbuhan  tiap  sektor  ekonomi  di  sulawesi  tenggara  disumbang  oleh  pertumbuhan  ekonomi  nasional  (national  share)  sebesar  5,35  persen.  industry  mix  bernilai  positif  yang  dimiliki  oleh sektor industri,  listrik, gas, dan air ber‐ sih,  konstruksi,  pengangkutan  dan  komuni‐ kasi,  keuangan,  sewa,  dan  jasa  perusahaan  serta  jasa‐jasa.  ini menunjukkan bahwa per‐ tumbuhan  sektor  ekonomi  tersebut  lebih  tinggi  daripada  pertumbuhan  ekonomi  di  tingkat  nasional.  sebaliknya  industry  mix  bernilai  negatif  yang  dimiliki  oleh  sektor  pertanian, pertambangan dan galian, bangu‐ nan,  perdagangan,  hotel,  dan  restoran  serta  pengangkutan dan komunikasi menunjukkan  bahwa  pertumbuhan  sektor  tersebut  lebih  kecil dari pertumbuhan ekonomi secara kese‐ luruhan  di  tingkat  nasional.  regional  shift  bernilai positif pada sektor pertanian, indus‐ tri,  listrik,  gas,  dan  air  bersih,  keuangan,  sewa, dan jasa perusahaan serta jasa‐jasa me‐ studi ekonomi regional ... (sri subanti dan arif rahman h.)  25 nunjukkan  bahwa  pertumbuhan  sektor  eko‐ nomi tersebut  lebih tinggi daripada pertum‐ buhan  sektor  ekonomi  sejenis  di  tingkat  nasional  ini  juga  menunjukkan  bahwa  kon‐ tribusi sektor ekonomi  tersebut cukup besar  dibanding  kontribusi  sektor  sejenis  di  wila‐ yah  sulawesi.  begitu  juga  sebaliknya  untuk  regional shift yang bernilai negatif.  selain  itu,  dalam  rentang  periode  ini  sektor  yang  mempunyai  industry  mix  dan  regional shift yang positif adalah sektor listrik  gas  dan  air,  serta  keuangan,  sewa,  dan  jasa  perusahaan.  kedua  sektor  ini  dapat  dikate‐ gorikan  sebagai  sektor  tumbuh  cepat  serta  mempunyai daya saing tinggi.   sektor dengan industry mix bernilai posi‐ tif  dan  regional  shift  bernilai  negatif  adalah  sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi. maka  sektor ini dapat dikategorikan sebagai sektor  yang mampu tumbuh cepat namun memiliki  daya  saing  rendah.  kemudian,  sektor  yang  lain  masuk  kategori  sektor  yang  tumbuh  lambat  namun  punya  daya  saing  tinggi  seperti  sektor  pertanian  dan  sektor  jasa.  sisanya  berupa  sektor  yang  masuk  kategori  tumbuh lambat dan daya saing rendah yakni  sektor  pertambangan  &  galian,  bangunan,  serta perdagangan, hotel, & restoran.  metode analisis input‐output   1.  struktur  pendapatan  nasional.  melalui  analisis  input‐output tahun 1995 akan diurai‐ kan struktur pendapatan nasional di provinsi  sulawesi tenggara baik dari sisi pengeluaran.   struktur pendapatan nasional berdasar  pengeluaran,  menunjukkan  struktur  penda‐ patan nasional sebagai penjumlahan dari se‐ luruh  pengeluaran  agregat  yang  dilakukan  oleh pelaku ekonomi dalam suatu perekono‐ mian. komponen pengeluaran agregat yaitu  konsumsi rumah tangga, investasi perusaha‐ an, pengeluaran pemerintah, ekspor, dan im‐ por.  berdasarkan  lampiran tabel l4,  terlihat  bahwa  konsumsi  rumah  tangga  memiliki  kontribusi  paling  besar  yakni  rp1.213.500  juta  setara  46,72  persen  kemudian  diikuti  oleh pos ekspor barang,  investasi, pengelua‐ ran pemerintah, dan impor. tingginya kontri‐ busi nilai ekspor dan investasi menunjukkan  bahwa  potensi  lokal  daerah  ini  mampu  menarik  minat  investor  selain  produksinya  cukup  baik  sehingga  gerak  ekonomi  lokal  tidak  begitu  didominasi  oleh  pemerintah  daerah sebagaimana yang jamak terjadi pada  beberapa  daerah  di  indonesia.  kondisi  ini  juga ditunjukkan oleh rendahnya impor yang  berarti bahwa ekonomi lokal mampu menye‐ diakan  barang  atau  jasa  yang  dibutuhkan  oleh  perekonomian.  bandingkan  dengan  menggunakan  tabel  input‐output  tahun  1995  tingkat nasional sebagaimana dalam lampi‐ ran tabel l5.  tabel  l5  memperlihatkan  dominasi  sek‐ tor konsumsi cukup tinggi baik untuk tingkat  region di sulawesi tenggara maupun nasio‐ nal. berikutnya sama, diikuti oleh pos inves‐ tasi dan konsumsi yang persentase kontribu‐ sinya mencapai lebih dari dua puluh persen.  perbedaan  terlihat  pada  pos  impor  dimana  kontribusi impor di sulawesi tenggara lebih  kecil  daripada  tingkat  nasional.  sebaliknya  pada  pos  pengeluaran  pemerintah  dimana  kontribusi  pengeluaran  pemerintah  di  sula‐ wesi tenggara lebih besar daripada nasional.  2.  efek  pengganda.  analisis  input‐output  tahun 1995 dibahas dengan efek pengganda  baik efek pengganda output, efek pengganda  pendapatan, maupun efek pengganda tenaga  kerja.  efek pengganda output. pengganda out‐ put (output multiplier) bertujuan untuk meli‐ hat  dampak  perubahan  permintaan  akhir  suatu sektor terhadap semua sektor yang ada  tiap satuan perubahan jenis pengganda. tabel  l6  menyajikan  analisis  efek  pengganda out‐ put.  jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 13 ‐ 33 26  sektor pertambangan & penggalian me‐ miliki  pengganda  output  tertinggi  (3,01425),  kemudian diikuti sektor pertanian dan sektor  industri  pengolahan  yang  masing‐masing  bernilai  2,36691  dan  2,01438.  hal  ini  berarti  setiap kenaikan permintaan output sektor ini  sebesar  rp1,  berdampak  meningkatkan  out‐ put  perekonomian  secara  keseluruhan  ma‐ sing‐masing sebesar  rp 3,01425; rp 2,36691;  dan rp 2,01438. tiap sektor  ini berkekuatan  besar  dalam  menstimulir  pertumbuhan  dan  dibutuhkan oleh sektor lain. sedangkan, sek‐ tor yang memiliki pengganda bernilai rendah  yakni  sektor  transportasi  dan  sektor  keua‐ ngan, sewa, dan  jasa perusahaan menunjuk‐ kan  sektor  ini  tidak  banyak  membutuhkan  input dari sektor lain.  efek pengganda pendapatan. metode ini  digunakan untuk melihat besarnya kenaikan  total  pendapatan  masyarakat  untuk  setiap  kenaikan satu satuan output yang dihasilkan  suatu  sektor. tabel l7  menyajikan  data  efek  pengganda pendapatan.  hasil dari dampak dan pengganda pen‐ dapatan sektor‐sektor perekonomian di sula‐ wesi  tenggara  menunjukkan  bahwa  sektor  keuangan, sewa, dan  jasa perusahaan mem‐ beri nilai terbesar  jika dibanding sektor lain.  adapun sektor berikutnya adalah sektor per‐ tambangan  dan  penggalian;  perdagangan,  hotel, dan restoran;  jasa‐jasa; bangunan; per‐ tanian;  transportasi, dan komunikasi;  listrik,  gas, & air serta industri.   nilai  pengganda  pendapatan  di  sektor  keuangan, sewa, dan jasa perusahaan sebesar  0,75565.  nilai  tersebut  mengandung  arti  bahwa  untuk  setiap  kenaikan  satu  satuan  output yang dihasilkan sektor  jasa‐jasa,  total  pendapatan  masyarakat  sulawesi  tenggara  akan meningkat sebesar rp 0,75565 milyar.    begitu juga untuk sektor industri dengan  nilai sebesar 0,30322 mengandung arti bahwa  untuk  setiap  kenaikan  satu  satuan  output  yang  dihasilkan  oleh  sektor  pertambangan  dan penggalian, total pendapatan masyarakat  di  sulawesi  tenggara  akan  meningkat  sebesar rp0,30322 milyar. nilai ini termasuk  paling  kecil  jika  dibandingkan  dengan  nilai  pengganda sektor lain.  efek  pengganda  kesempatan  kerja.  metode  ini  digunakan  melihat  peran  suatu  sektor  dalam  hal  meningkatnya  besarnya  jumlah tenaga kerja yang dapat diserap oleh  suatu perekonomian. suatu sektor dikatakan  memiliki peran yang tinggi  jika pengukuran  indeksnya lebih besar dari satu.   hasil  pengganda  kesempatan  kerja  sek‐ tor‐sektor perekonomian di sulawesi tengga‐ ra disajikan pada lampiran tabel l8 menun‐ jukkan  bahwa  sektor  industri  pengolahan  memberi nilai terbesar  jika dibanding sektor  lain. adapun sektor berikutnya yang menyu‐ sul adalah sektor jasa‐jasa; pertanian; pertam‐ bangan  &  penggalian;  listrik,  gas,  &  air  minum;  perdagangan,  hotel,  &  restoran;  bangunan;  transportasi  &  komunikasi;  serta  keuangan, sewa, dan jasa perusahaan.   nilai  pengganda  kesempatan  kerja  di  sektor  industri  pengolahan  sebesar  0,97147.  dengan  asumsi  ada  keterkaitan  antarsektor  maka  jika  terjadi  peningkatan  output  sektor  industri  pengolahan  sebesar  1  milyar,  ber‐ dampak pada penambahan kesempatan kerja  bagi perekonomian secara keseluruhan sebe‐ sar 971 orang. dampak kesempatan kerja ter‐ hadap  sektor  industri  pengolahan  sendiri  adalah naik sebesar 761 orang  sesuai dengan  koefisien teknisnya.  begitu  juga  untuk  sektor  keuangan,  sewa,  dan  jasa  perusahaan  dengan  nilai  sebesar  0,10195.  dengan  asumsi  yang  sama,  jika  terjadi  peningkatan  output  sektor  keua‐ ngan,  sewa,  dan  jasa  perusahaan  sebesar  1  milyar,  berdampak  pada  penambahan  ke‐ sempatan  kerja  bagi  perekonomian  secara  keseluruhan sebesar 9 orang. dampak kesem‐ studi ekonomi regional ... (sri subanti dan arif rahman h.)  27 patan kerja terhadap sektor keuangan, sewa,  dan  jasa perusahaan sendiri begitu kecil. ini  menunjukkan bahwa sektor ini kurang sensi‐ tif dalam menciptakan  lapangan kerja. nilai  ini  termasuk  paling  kecil  jika  dibandingkan  dengan nilai pengganda sektor lain.  3. analisis  keterkaitan.  analisis  tabel  input  output dapat juga dilihat atau dianalisis keter‐ kaitan  total  antarsektor  (total  sektor  linkage  effect)  yakni  indeks  keterkaitan  langsung  ke  depan,   indeks keterkaitan kebelakang, serta  analisis keterkaitan antarsektor.   analisis keterkaitan langsung ke depan.  hasil analisis keterkaitan langsung ke depan  menunjukkan  bahwa  sektor  pertanian  dan  perdagangan hotel & restoran memiliki nilai  yang tinggi dibandingkan sektor lainnya. hal  tersebut dapat dilihat dalam lampiran tabel  l9.  sektor pertanian dan perdagangan hotel  &  restoran  memiliki  nilai  keterkaitan  lang‐ sung kedepan masing‐masing sebesar 2,83369  dan  1,27585.  nilai  ini  yang  dihasilkan  oleh  kedua  sektor  menunjukkan  bahwa  sektor  pertanian dan perdagangan hotel & restoran  mempunyai kemampuan kuat untuk mendo‐ rong  pertumbuhan  output  industri  hilirnya.  selain itu, output yang dihasilkan dari kedua  sektor di atas merupakan komoditas interme‐ dier, dalam artian menjadi komponen bahan  baku bagi industri dan sektor perekonomian  lainnya.  analisis keterkaitan langsung ke bela‐ kang. hasil analisis keterkaitan  langsung ke  depan  menunjukkan  bahwa  sektor  pertam‐ bangan  &  penggalian  dan  sektor  pertanian  memiliki  nilai  yang  tinggi  dibandingkan  sektor  lainnya.  hal  tersebut  dapat  dilihat  dalam tabel l10.  selain  sektor  pertambangan  &  pengga‐ lian,  sektor  pertanian,  serta  sektor  perdaga‐ ngan  hotel  &  restoran  juga  memiliki  nilai  yang  lebih  besar  dari  satu.  nilai  tersebut  mengandung  arti  bahwa  sektor  pertamba‐ ngan  &  penggalian,  sektor  pertanian,  serta  sektor  perdagangan,  hotel  &  restoran  mem‐ punyai kemampuan yang kuat untuk mena‐ rik  pertumbuhan  sektor  hulunya  karena  setiap  satu  satuan  peningkatan  permintaan  akhir  pada  setiap  lima  sektor  tersebut  akan  mendorong peningkatan output pada sektor‐ sektor  yang  menggunakannya  sebagai  input  dimana  peningkatannya  sektor  hulunya  masing‐masing sebesar 1,57147 untuk sektor  pertambangan  &  penggalian;  1,23398  untuk  sektor  pertanian;  serta  1,0233  untuk  sektor  perdagangan, hotel & restoran.  analisis  keterkaitan  total  antarsektor  dan penentuan sektor prioritas. melalui ta‐ bel l11  terlihat  bahwa  sektor  pertanian  dan  sektor perdagangan hotel & restoran menjadi  sektor  prioritas  dalam  perekonomian  pro‐ vinsi sulawesi tenggara karena kedua sektor  ini  memiliki  nilai  keterkaitan  kedepan  dan  nilai keterkaitan ke belakang yang lebih besar  dari  satu.  sektor  ini  dalam  jangka  panjang  dapat  mendorong  tumbuhnya  sektor  lain  dalam perekonomian, strategi jangka panjang  umumnya  ditujukan  untuk  menciptakan  pertumbuhan  ekonomi  yang  berkelanjutan.  dalam kuadran keterkaitan antarsektor pere‐ kuadran ii :  kuadran i :     pertanian, perdagangan, hotel, & restoran  kuadran iii :  kuadran iv :  listrik & air bersih, angkutan & komunikasi  pertambangan  bangunan, jasa, bank, lemb. keuangan, dan lainnya  industri pengolahan  gambar 3. kuadran keterkaitan antarsektor ekonomi di sulawesi tenggara  jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 13 ‐ 33 28  konomian  sulawesi  tenggara  terlihat  jelas  bahwa  kedua  sektor  memegang  peran  penting (gambar 3).  kesimpulan  melalui  analisis  yang  dilakukan  dengan  menggunakan  metode  lq,  ss,  dan  analisis  input‐output untuk sulawesi tenggara dipero‐ leh  temuan  sebagai  berikut: pertama,  sektor  pertanian,  sektor  bangunan/konstruksi,  sek‐ tor  pengangkutan  &  telekomunikasi,  serta  sektor  jasa menjadi sektor basis di sulawesi  tenggara,  kedua, pengganda sektor basis yang ber‐ nilai  besar  ada  pada  sektor  pengangkutan  dan komunikasi serta sektor jasa‐jasa,   ketiga,  sektor  yang  mengalami  industry  mix dan regional shift positif adalah sektor lis‐ trik  gas  dan  air,  serta  keuangan,  sewa,  dan  jasa  perusahaan.  kedua  sektor  ini  dapat  di‐ kategorikan  sebagai  sektor  tumbuh  cepat  serta mempunyai daya saing tinggi.   keempat,  sektor  dengan  industry  mix  bernilai positif dan regional shift bernilai nega‐ tif  adalah  sektor  pengangkutan  dan  komu‐ nikasi.  maka  sektor  ini  dapat  dikategorikan  sebagai  sektor  yang  mampu  tumbuh  cepat  namun memiliki daya saing rendah.   kelima, sektor yang  lain masuk kategori  sektor  yang  tumbuh  lambat  namun  punya  daya saing tinggi seperti sektor pertanian dan  sektor jasa.   keenam, sektor yang masuk kategori sek‐ tor yang tumbuh lambat dan daya daing ren‐ dah  yakni  sektor  pertambangan  dan  galian,  bangunan,  serta  perdagangan,  hotel,  dan  restoran.sektor  industri,  listrik  gas  dan  air,  bangunan dan konstruksi, perdagangan hotel  dan restoran, angkutan dan komunikasi, ke‐ mudian  jasa‐jasa.  selain  itu,  hampir  semua  sektor mempunyai daya saing tinggi kecuali  sektor bangunan/konstruksi.  ketujuh, sektor pertambangan dan peng‐ galian  memiliki  pengganda  output  tertinggi,  sedangkan  sektor  keuangan,  sewa,  dan  jasa  perusahaan  mempunyai  pengganda  output  terendah.  kedelapan,  sektor  pertanian  dan  perda‐ gangan hotel & restoran memiliki nilai keter‐ kaitan  langsung  ke  depan  lebih  besar  dari  satu.  kesembilan,  sektor  pertambangan  &  penggalian, sektor pertanian, serta sektor per‐ dagangan hotel & restoran juga memiliki nilai  keterkaitan langsung ke belakang yang lebih  besar dari satu.     terakhir, sektor pertanian dan sektor per‐ dagangan, hotel, dan restoran menjadi sektor  kunci  dalam  perekonomian  di  sulawesi  tenggara.  pemprov  tetap  perlu  memperhatikan  sektor  lain  seperti  sektor  pengangkutan  &  komunikasi  serta  sektor  jasa  meski  sektor  pertanian dan perdagangan hotel & restoran  menjadi  sektor  unggulan.  karena  ketergan‐ tungan  antarsektor  ada  sehingga  jika  tidak  diperhatikan  dapat  mengganggu  kegiatan  ekonomi lokal di sulawesi tenggara.  pemerintah  provinsi  sulawesi  tenggara  haruslah menciptakan kebijakan yang dapat  mendorong  tumbuhnya  sektor  basis  di  samping  memberdayakan  potensi  sektor  pendukung  dalam  hal  ini  sektor  non  basis.  pengganda  sektor  nonbasis  cukup  besar  bahkan lebih tinggi daripada sektor basis, jika  mampu dikelola dengan baik dimana ketika  perekonomian berkembang dan memerlukan  sektor  pendukung  dalam  hal  ini  sektor  non  basis.  upaya  ini  harusnya  dapat  dipenuhi  oleh  ekonomi  lokal  sehingga  dapat  membe‐ rikan manfaat bagi warga provinsi sulawesi  tenggara.  pemerintah  provinsi  sulawesi  tenggara  studi ekonomi regional ... (sri subanti dan arif rahman h.)  29 perlu memperhatikan kabupaten yang masuk  dalam  kategori  kabupaten  potensial  seperti  kabupaten wakatobi dan kota bau‐bau yang  masuk  dalam  kategori  kabupaten  berkem‐ bang cepat yang pada akhirnya berkontribusi  dalam  peningkatan  pendapatan  di  sulawesi  tenggara pada umumnya.   pemerintah  perlu  melakukan  perenca‐ naan menyeluruh bila alan mengembangkan  sektor prioritas. karena strategi yang dipilih  akan  menimbulkan  perdebatan  dimana  sek‐ tor prioritas yang dipilih  tidak membahaya‐ kan  lingkungan  atau  sebaliknya.  alternatif  perencanaan dapat dengan menerapkan tek‐ nologi  yang  sesuai  sehingga  dapat  menghe‐ mat sumberdaya alam dan mengurangi inten‐ sitas  polusi  sehingga  tidak  merusak  lingku‐ ngan dan   keberlangsungan dapat  lebih  ter‐ jaga.  pemerintah  perlu  meningkatkan  daya  saing  produk  domestik  terhadap  komoditi  yang  akan  diperdagangkan  jangan  hanya  melakukan  kegiatan  perdagangan  yang  ko‐ moditinya  tidak  memberikan  nilai  tambah.  salah  satunya  melalui  perbaikan  infrastruk‐ tur  setidaknya  mendekati  dengan  yang  di‐ miliki oleh provinsi sulawesi selatan.   keterbatasan  dalam  studi  adalah  data  input‐output  yang  digunakan  tahun  1995.  studi  ke  depan,  diharapkan  menggunakan  data  yang  lebih  baru  selain  menambah  metode yang sering digunakan maupun yang  tengah  dikembangkan  dalam  analisis  regio‐ nal.  daftar pustaka  antara,  made.  2005.  kebutuhan  investasi  sektor basis dan non basis dalam pere‐ konomian regional bali. makalah.   azhar, syarifah, lies, fuaidah dan m nassir  abdussamad. 2001. analisis sektor basis  dan non basis di provinsi nangroe aceh  darussalam. makalah.  badan pusat statistik. 1995. kerangka teori dan  analisis  tabel  input  output.  jakarta:  badan pusat statistik.   bps sulawesi tenggara. 2007. produk domes‐ tik regional bruto sulawesi tenggara ta‐ hun 2000‐2006. sulawesi tenggara.   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2002. analisis penentuan sektor prioritas  di kelautan dan perikanan indonesia. pe‐ sisir dan lautan, vol 4 no 3.  sahara,  dan  budi  p  resudarmo.  2002. peran  industri  pengolahan  terhadap  perekono‐ mian dki: analisis input output. work‐ ing paper.   jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 13 ‐ 33 30  soepono,  prasetyo.  1993.  “analisis  shift  share:  perkembangan dan  penerapan”.  jurnal ekonomi dan bisnis indonesia, sep‐ tember.   virgowansyah,  cheka  dan  suahazil  nazara.  2007. “analisis sumber perubahan out‐ put  sektoral  perekonomian  indonesia  1975–2003”.  jurnal  kebijakan  ekonomi,  vol 2 no 3, april.   yamin,  muhammad.  2005.  “analisis  penga‐ ruh pembangunan sektor pertanian ter‐ hadap  distribusi  pendapatan  dan  pe‐ ningkatan  lapangan  kerja  di  provinsi  sumatera  selatan”.  jurnal pembangunan  manusia.        lampiran  tabel l1. hasil perhitungan dengan metode lq di provinsi sulawesi tenggara tahun   sektor ekonomi  2002  2003  2004  2005  2006  rerata  keterangan  1  pertanian  2.3624  2.3320  2.3851  2.4438  2.4277  2.3902  basis  2  pertambangan & penggalian  0.2997  0.5411  0.5560  0.5769  0.5208  0.4989  non basis  3  industri  0.2900  0.2704  0.2521  0.2444  0.2984  0.2711  non basis  4  listrik, gas, dan air bersih  0.7918  0.8032  0.9240  1.0079  1.0023  0.9058  non basis  5  bangunan/konstruksi  1.3681  1.2981  1.2591  1.2367  1.2084  1.2741  basis  6  perdagangan, hotel, &  restoran  0.9516  0.8841  0.8893  0.8797  0.8489  0.8907  non basis  7  pengangkutan & komunikasi  1.2793  1.2233  1.1948  1.1383  1.0697  1.1811  basis  8  keuangan, sewa, & js pershn  0.4215  0.4721  0.5056  0.5068  0.5701  0.4952  non basis  9  jasa‐jasa  2.9684  2.9547  2.9628  3.0364  3.0463  2.9937  basis  sumber: bps sulawesi tenggara tahun 2008, hasil pengolahan data     tabel l2. hasil perhitungan pengganda  tahun  multiplier  n  2002  4.49846  0.77770  2003  3.97851  0.74865  2004  3.91541  0.74460  2005  3.87265  0.74178  2006  3.85706  0.74073  rerata  4.02442  0.75069  sumber: bps sulawesi tenggara tahun 2008, hasil pengolahan data          studi ekonomi regional ... (sri subanti dan arif rahman h.)  31 tabel l3. hasil perhitungan dengan metode shift‐share di provinsi sulawesi tenggara tahun  2003  2006 sektor ekonomi  g  (gi‐g)  (gi‐gi)  g  (gi‐g)  (gi‐gi)  1  pertanian  4.63%  1.52%  2.36%  5.35%  ‐0.77%  1.59%  2  pertambangan & penggalian  4.63%  79.90%  85.90%  5.35%  ‐11.04%  ‐7.90%  3  industri  4.63%  ‐2.86%  ‐3.57%  5.35%  25.24%  25.95%  4  listrik, gas, dan air bersih  4.63%  5.60%  5.35%  5.35%  2.26%  1.74%  5  bangunan/konstruksi  4.63%  ‐0.33%  ‐1.80%  5.35%  3.49%  ‐0.13%  6  perdagangan, hotel, & restoran  4.63%  ‐3.12%  ‐3.94%  5.35%  ‐0.65%  ‐1.44%  7  pengangkutan & komunikasi  4.63%  6.52%  ‐1.04%  5.35%  3.82%  ‐4.48%  8  keuangan, sewa, & js pershn  4.63%  19.21%  17.11%  5.35%  16.13%  15.83%  9  jasa‐jasa  4.63%  ‐0.52%  3.16%  5.35%  1.27%  2.65%  sumber: bps sulawesi tenggara tahun 2008, hasil pengolahan data     tabel l4. struktur pdb provinsi sulawesi tenggara berdasar pengeluaran  pos  nilai  % terhadap total pdb  1. konsumsi rumah tangga  1,213,500  46.72%  2. pengeluaran pemerintah  441,643  17.00%  3. investasi  570,694  21.97%  4. ekspor   593,594  22.85%  5. impor  222,006  8.55%  total pdb  2,597,425  100.00%  sumber: tabel i‐o sulawesi tenggara tahun 1995, hasil pengolahan data    tabel l5. struktur pdb negara indonesia berdasar pengeluaran pos nilai % terhadap total pdb 1. konsumsi rumah tangga  322,968,977  60.30%  2. pengeluaran pemerintah  34,783,511  6.49%  3. investasi  124,230,288  23.20%  4. ekspor barang dan jasa  122,359,619  22.85%  5. impor  68,777,578  12.84%  total pdb  535,564,816  100.00%  sumber: tabel i‐o indonesia tahun 1995, hasil pengolahan data   tabel l6. pengganda output provinsi sulawesi tenggara  kode dan kelompok sektor  multiplier output  1  pertanian  2.36691  2  pertambangan & penggalian  3.01425  3  industri pengolahan  2.01438  4  listrik, gas, dan air minum  1.66479  5  bangunan  1.79399  6  perdagangan, hotel, & restoran  1.96280  7  transportasi & komunikasi  1.24959  8  keuangan, sewa, & j. perusahaan  1.45038  9  jasa‐jasa  1.74588  sumber: tabel i‐o sulawesi tenggara tahun 1995, hasil pengolahan data  jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 10, nomor 1, april 2009: 13 ‐ 33 32  tabel  l7. pengganda pendapatan provinsi sulawesi tenggara  kode dan kelompok sektor  pengganda  pendapatan  koefisien  pendapatan  rasio  1  pertanian  0.32830  0.12864  2.55209  2  pertambangan & penggalian  0.46901  0.15204  3.08487  3  industri pengolahan  0.30322  0.13237  2.29075  4  listrik, gas, dan air minum  0.30869  0.17608  1.75315  5  bangunan  0.33283  0.19223  1.73147  6  perdagangan, hotel, & restoran  0.40015  0.24249  1.65013  7  transportasi & komunikasi  0.32721  0.27177  1.20400  8  keuangan, sewa, & j. perusahaan  0.75565  0.66638  1.13398  9  jasa‐jasa  0.34342  0.18600  1.84639    sumber: tabel i‐o sulawesi tenggara tahun 1995, hasil pengolahan data   tabel  l8. pengganda kesempatan kerja provinsi sulawesi tenggara kode dan kelompok sektor  pengganda  kesempatan kerja  koefisien  kesempatan kerja  rasio  1  pertanian  0.40389  0.17403  2.32080  2  pertambangan & penggalian  0.32046  0.00836  38.32566  3  industri pengolahan  0.97147  0.76126  1.27613  4  listrik, gas, dan air minum  0.25819  0.16263  1.58757  5  bangunan  0.22514  0.05898  3.81712  6  perdagangan, hotel, & restoran  0.25097  0.09458  2.65358  7  transportasi & komunikasi  0.21240  0.16722  1.27023  8  keuangan, sewa, & j. perusahaan  0.08739  0.00476  18.37795  9  jasa‐jasa  0.95694  0.80135  1.19416    sumber: tabel i‐o sulawesi tenggara tahun 1995, hasil pengolahan data   tabel l9. indeks keterkaitan langsung kedepan  kode dan kelompok sektor  indeks keterkaitan depan  1  pertanian  2.83369  2  pertambangan & penggalian  0.69621  3  industri pengolahan  0.63790  4  listrik, gas, dan air minum  0.69256  5  bangunan  0.79685  6  perdagangan, hotel, & restoran  1.27585  7  transportasi & komunikasi  0.89615  8  keuangan, sewa, & j. perusahaan  0.54081  9  jasa‐jasa  0.62998    sumber: tabel i‐o sulawesi tenggara tahun 1995, hasil pengolahan data              studi ekonomi regional ... (sri subanti dan arif rahman h.)  33 tabel l10. indeks keterkaitan langsung ke belakang  kode dan kelompok sektor  indeks keterkaitan belakang  1  pertanian  1.23398  2  pertambangan & penggalian  1.57147  3  industri pengolahan  1.05019  4  listrik, gas, dan air minum  0.86793  5  bangunan  0.93529  6  perdagangan, hotel, & restoran  1.02330  7  transportasi & komunikasi  0.65147  8  keuangan, sewa, & j. perusahaan  0.75615  9  jasa‐jasa  0.91021  sumber: tabel i‐o sulawesi tenggara tahun 1995, hasil pengolahan data    tabel l11. total keterkaitan antarsektor dan penentuan sektor prioritas  kode dan kelompok sektor  indeks  keterkaitan  belakang  indeks  keterkaitan  depan  kuadran  keterangan  1  pertanian  1.23398  2.83369  1  key sector  2  pertambangan & penggalian  1.57147  0.69621  4  orientasi  kebelakang  3  industri pengolahan  1.05019  0.63790  4  less important  4  listrik, gas, dan air minum  0.86793  0.69256  3  less important  5  bangunan  0.93529  0.79685  3  less important  6  perdagangan, hotel, & restoran  1.02330  1.27585  1  key sector  7  transportasi & komunikasi  0.65147  0.89615  3  less important  8  keuangan, sewa, & j. perusahaan  0.75615  0.54081  3  less important  9  jasa‐jasa  0.91021  0.62998  3  less important  sumber: tabel i‐o sulawesi tenggara tahun 1995, hasil pengolahan data              microsoft word 08-restika jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 1, april 2013, hlm.67-79 kontribusi objek wisata goa pindul terhadap perekonomian masyarakat restika cahya ningsih institute of public policy and economic studies jl. kenari, no. r-13, sidoarum 3, godean sleman, daerah istimewa yogyakarta 55564, indonesia, phone +62 274 798342 e-mail korespondensi: inspectjogya@yahoo.com naskah diterima: november 2012; disetujui: maret 2013 abstract: at desa bejiharjo, kecamatan karangmojo, is a place where most of the population works as a farmer, and gardener. the population is now attracted to manage the tourism spot there. the study aims to; first, to know the economy condition of the population in pindul cave before and after it is known as the tourism spot, second, to know the effect of pindul cave as the tourism spot to the economy condition of people in gunung kidul, especially people in bejiharjo three, to know the prospect and potential rate of the development of pindul cave later on. with all the aims, the study uses the method of swot and interview. then use the method of linear trend to forecast the people’s condition in bejiharjo later on. keywords: cave; tourism site; swot; linear trend jel classification: l83, r58 abstrak: desa bejiharjo kecamatan karangmojo dimana sebagian besar penduduknya mempunyai mata pencaharian sebagai petani dab berkebun. namun pengelolaan objek wisata yang ada di wonosari menjadi tren yang mulai diminati masyarakat. studi ini bertujuan: pertama, mengetahui keadaan ekonomi masyarakat di kawasan objek wisata goa pindul sebelum dan setelah goa pindul dijadikan objek wisata. kedua, mengetahui pengaruh wisata goa pindul terhadap perekonomian masyarakat gunungkidul khususnya disekitar bejiharjo. ketiga, mengetahui prospek dan potensi pengembangan pariwisata goa pindul di masa yang akan datang. studi ini menggunakan metode pedekatan analisis swot dan wawancara. kemudian menggunakan metode trend linier untuk meramalkan keadaan ekonomi masyarakat bejiharjo beberapa tahun yang akan datang. kata kunci: goa; objek wisata; swot; trend liner klasifikasi jel: l83, r58 pendahuluan daerah istimewa yogyakarta telah terkenal akan keanekaragaman objek wisata keeksotisan kotanya yang menawarkan keindahan historis dan budaya. tempat tujuan kunjungan para wisatawan tidak hanya terpaku pada kota yogyakarta saja, akan tetapi juga tersebar di setiap kabupaten di daerah istimewa yogyakarta. setiap kabupaten di daerah istimewa yogyakarta memiliki objek wisata yang menjadi unggulannya. sebagai contoh di kabupaten bantul, objek wisata yang menjadi unggulannya sedari dulu hingga saat ini yaitu pantai parangtritis, di kabupaten sleman terdapat objek wisata gunung merapi, dan begitu juga di kabupaten-kabupaten lainnya di daerah istimewa yogyakarta. saat ini, pemerintah indonesia sedang mengunggulkan sektor pariwisata sebagai salah satu sektor yang memberikan sumbangan besar begi devisa negara. pemerintah telah mencanangkan program visit indonesia year 2008 untuk meningkatkan jumlah kunjungan pariwisata ke indonesia. kemudian pada tahun 2009 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 1, april 2013: 67-79 68 hingga tahun 2013 dicanangkan sebagai kelanjutan dari program tersebut di setiap daerah tujuan pariwisata. pariwisata merupakan industri baru dalam penyediaan lapangan kerja, peningkatan pendapatan, bahkan dalam menyediakan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang cepat. selain itu,sektor pariwisata juga tidak sedikit memberikan sumbangannya terhadap pendapatan daerah daerah istimewa yogyakarta, baik pendapatan asli daerah (pad) maupun produk domestik regional bruto (pdrb)nya. di daerah istimewa yogyakarta sendiri banyak bermunculan objek wisata baru salah satunya di kabupaten gunung kidul. secara umum kabupaten gunung kidul memiliki beberapa tempat pariwisata setiap tahunnya yang dapat dilihat dalam tabel 1. tabel 1 menunjukkan pengunjung atau wisatawan di desa bejiharjo kecamatan karangmojo pada tahun 2012 hampir mendekati ratarata wisatawan yang berkunjung di kabupaten gunungkidul. setelah semua jumlah wisatawan yang berkunjung ke berbagai objek wisata di kabupaten gunungkidul di rata-rata menunjukkan angka 71.000 wisata. ini mengindikasikan bahwa desa wisata goa pindul mampu menarik wisatawan untuk mengunjungi objek wisata di desa bejiharjo, mengingat tempat wisata goa pindul baru dibuka pada tahun 2010. meskipun goa pindul baru diresmikan pada tahun 2010, objek wisata tersebut mampu menarik lebih dari 50.000 pengunjung pada tahun 2012 (sumber; data bps, kecamatan dalam angka tahun 2012). goa pindul yang terletak di desabejiharjo, kecamatan karangmojo, kabupaten gunung kidul, daerah istimewa yogyakarta ini adalah salah satu objek wisata yang dikembangkan oleh masyarakat setempat. kehadiran goa pindul telah memberikan banyak kontribusi untuk kelangsungan hidup warga setempat. hingga kini, objek wisata goa pindul telah menyerap sekitar 150 orang tenaga kerja, sebagian besar dari mereka adalah warga yang tinggal di sekitar desa wisata bejiharjo. mereka menempati berbagai posisi, seperti pemandu (tour guide), security, penjaga kebersihan, bagian manajemen dan keuangan, serta marketing. sekitar 2000-3000 pengunjung kini bisa diserap oleh objek wisata goa pindul. penghasilan yang didapatkan dari objek wisata goa pindul disumbangkan untuk desa wisata bejiharjo sebanyak 25.000.000 rupiah/tahun. tabel 1. jumlah pengunjung daya tarik wisata di kabupaten gunungkidul, tahun 2012 no daya tarik wisata wisatawan nusantara wisatawan mancanegara jumlah 1. pantai baron 442.912 442.912 2. pantai siung 34.183 34.183 3. pantai wedi ombo 35.150 35.150 4. pantai sadeng 24.342 24.342 5. pule gundes 109.030 109.030 6. tepus 179.377 179.377 7. pantai ngerenehan 34.986 34.986 8. gua cerme 1.800 1.800 9. gunung gambar 1.400 1.400 10. jjls 200.662 200.662 11. desa wisata goa kalisuci 5176 659 5.835 12. desa wisata pindul bejiharjo 59.012 891 59.903 13. desa wisata bleberan srigetuk 108.660 158 108.818 14. desa wisata jelok beji 6.626 6.626 15. desa wisata bobung 9.731 345 10.076 16. desa kemuning,bunder 4.477 4.477 17. desa wisata nglangeran 13.200 13.200 18. desa wisata umbul rejo 6.288 6.288 sumber : dinas pariwisata daerah istimewa yogyakarta tahun 2012 kontribusi objek wisata ... (restika cahya ningsih) 69 sebelum dijadikan sebagai objek wisata, goa pindul dijadikan sebagai pembuangan sampah oleh penduduk sekitar. dengan berjalannya waktu pemerintah melihat potensi dari goa pindul yang dapat dijadikan sebagai objek wisata sehingga dapat meningkatkan perekonomian penduduk desa bejiharjo baik dari segi peningkatan pendapatan dan penyerapan tenaga kerja yang lebih tinggi sehingga dapat mengurangi tingkat pengangguran. pada tahun 2010 goa pindul secara resmi dibuka oleh pemerintah setempat sebagai salah satu objek wisata di kabupaten gunungkidul. sebelum adanya wisata goa pindul banyak masyarakat yang bekerja sabagai buruh tani dengan penghasilan rata-rata rp350.000,-per bulan, namun setelah dibukanya wisata goa pindul masyarakat bejiharjo bisa menghasilkan untung rata-rata sebesar: rp2.500.000,per bulan. dengan dibukanya goa pindul sebagai objek wisata maka dapat memberikan beberapa dampak positif di antaranya adalah mengurangi pengangguran, memperluas upaya penambahan lapangan kerja, meningkatkan pdrb perkapita masyarakat, meningkatkan pad kabupaten gunung kidul, menambah devisa, penyusunan atau pembuatan kebijakan baru pada daerah wisata di gunungkidul, dan dapat melaksanakan otonomi daerah dengan sebagaimana semestinya. studi ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui keadaan ekonomi masyarakat di kawasan objek wisata goa pindul sebelum dan setelah goa pindul dijadikan objek wisata, seberapa besar pengaruh wisata goa pindul terhadap perekonomian masyarakat gunungkidul khususnya di sekitar bejiharjo dan untuk mengetahui prospek dan potensi pengembangan pariwisata goa pindul di masa yang akan datang menggunakan metode deskriptif karena metode ini merupakan cara untuk mengungkapkan kebenaran yang objektif, yaitu analisis swot dan analisis trend linear. berdasarkan latar belakang dan fenomena di atas maka studi ini akan fokus pada peran objek wisata goa pindul terhadap perekonomian masyarakat setempat pada khususnya, dan di kabupaten gunungkidul pada umumnya. metode penelitian jenis dan sumber data data yang digunakan adalah data sekunder dan data primer. sumber data sekunder diperoleh dari berbagai instansi terkait yaitu badan pusat statistik d.i. yogyakarta, dinas pariwisata d.i. yogyakarta dan pengelola objek wisata terkait. sedangkan data primer diperoleh melalui wawancara dengan menggunakan kuesioner kepada responden yang berada di objek wisata goa pindul desa bejiharjo karangmojo gunungkidul. sampel dalam studi ini berjumlah 60 responden. di mana 10 responden adalah pengunjung yang datang ke goa pindul dan 50 lainnya adalah masyarakat yang ada di desa bejiharjo. analisis data alat analisis yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah analisa swot dan analisis tren linier. analisa swot digunakan untuk menentukan dua faktor yaitu faktor internal yang berupa kekuatan (strenghts) dan kelemahan (weakness), dan faktor eksternal yang berupa kesempatan (opportunities) dan ancaman (thearts). analisis ini didasarkan pada logika yang dapat memaksimalkan strengths dan opportunities, namun secara bersamaan dapat meminimalkan weaknesses dan threats. kekuatan, kelemahan, peluang dan ancaman merupakan faktor-faktor strategis. sehingga akan dapat disusun upaya-upaya yang akan dilakukan untuk pengembangan ekonomi secara strategis. matriks swot pada tabel 2 menghasilkan empat kemungkinan strategi alternatif, yaitu: 1) strategi s-o; 2) strategi s-t; 3) strategi w-o; 4) strategi w-t analisis trend linear adalah suatu gerakan kecenderungan naik atau turun dalam jangka panjang yang diperoleh dari rata-rata perubahan dari waktu ke waktu dan nilainya cukup rata atau mulus. tren data berkala bisa berbentuk tren yang meningkat dan menurun secara mulus. tren yang meningkat disebut tren positif sedangkan tren yang menurun disebut tren negative. tren menunjukkan perubahan waktu yang relatif panjang dan stabil. kekuatan yang dapat memengaruhi tren adalah perubahan populasi, harga, teknologi, dan produktifitas. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 1, april 2013: 67-79 70 metode trend yang akan digunakan dalam studi ini adalah metode trend linear dan tren nonlinear (kuadratik) (supangat, 2007). rumus-rumus regresi linear sederhana: , 1) ∑ ∑ ∑ ∑ ∑ 2) 3) di mana: y adalah nilai peramalan; a adalah konstanta y; b adalah nilai kemiringan; n adalah jumlah data. hasil dan pembahasan masyarakat mempunyai peran yang sangat besar di dalam penyelenggaraan keparawisataan. dalam kode etik pariwisata dunia pasal 5 ayat 1 disebutkan bahwa penduduk setempat harus diikutsertakan dalam kegiatan pariwisata dan secara adil menikmati keuntungan ekonomis, dan sosial yang mereka usahakan, khususnya menciptakan lapangan pekerjaan. peran pemerintah daerah maupun pemerintah desa adalah membangun kerja sama yang baik untuk mengembangkan kawasan wisata goa pindul dengan dibuatnya peraturan-peraturan serta pengawasan untuk menjaga keamanan, kebersihan serta kelestarian kawasan wisata goa pindul, sehingga wisatawan merasa aman dan nyaman di kawasan wisata goa tersebut. masyarakat juga mempunyai peran penting dalam mengembangkan kawasan wisata goa yaitu turut bekerja sama dengan pemerintah dan pengelola untuk melayani wisatawan yang berkunjung dan mengembangkan usaha kecil di sekitar kawasan wisata goa pindul. tabel 3 menunjukkan tingkat pendidikan yang paling mendominasi adalah pada tingkat sekolah dasar (sd) sederajat sebanyak 43,5 persen yaitu 3.590 orang, diikuti oleh sekolah menengah pertama (sma) sederajat sebanyak 28,6 persen dengan jumlah 2.357 orang, kemudian diikuti oleh sekolah menengah atas (sma) sederajat yaitu 24,8 persen sebanyak 2.045 orang dan tingkat pendidikan masyarakat desa bejiharjo yang paling rendah adalah tingkat perguruan tinggi yaitu sebanyak 3,12 persen dengan total 258 orang. tingkat pendidikan juga berpengaruh terhadap keberhasilan dalam mengembangkan kawasan wisata. kita dapat melihat adanya peran penting sumberdaya manusia dalam memberikan sumbangsih pemikiran dan pengetahuan dalam upaya pengembangan suatu kawasan wisata goa pindul. tabel 3 juga membuktikan bahwa padukuhan dengan tingkat pendidikan paling kecil adalah padukuhan gunungsari dengan tingkat pendidikan sekolah dasar (sd) sederajat sebanyak 63 orang, sekolah menengah pertama (smp) sederajat sebanyak 35 orang, sekolah menengah atas (sma) sederajat sebanyak 30 orang dan diikuti dengan jumlah tingkat perguruan tinggi sebanyak 13 orang sehingga terlihat bahwa tingkat pendidikan padukuhan gunung sari berada pada posisi terendah dengan jumlah orang dengan jumlah penduduk dengan tingkat tabel 2. matriks swot faktor internal faktor eksternal strenght (s) daftar kekuatan internal weakness (w) daftar kelemahan internal opportunities (o) daftar peluang eksternal strategi s-o strategi yang menggunakan kekuatan untuk memanfaatkan peluang strategi w-o strategi yang meminimalkan kelemahan untuk memanfaatkan peluang threats (t) daftar ancaman eksternal strategi s-t strategi yang menggunakan kekuatan untuk mengatasi ancaman strategi w-t strategi yang meminimalkan kelemahan dan menghindari ancaman sumber: (rangkuti,2005) kontribusi objek wisata ... (restika cahya ningsih) 71 pendidikan terendah yaitu 141 orang. kendati demikian, disambung dengan padukuhan yang merupakan objek studi berada pada tingkat pendidikan dengan jumlah penduduk terendah nomor dua yaitu 162 orang dengan rincian tingkat pendidikan sekolah dasar (sd) sederajat sebanyak 71 orang, sekolah menengah pertama (smp) sederajat sebanyak 64 orang, sekolah menengah atas (sma) sederajat sebanyak 21 orang dan tingkat perguruan tinggi sebanyak 6 orang. tabel 4. klasifikasi umur masyarakat bejiharjo tahun 2010 no. usia (tahun) jenis kelamin jumlah lakilaki perempuan 1 0 s.d. 9 618 543 1.161 2 10 s.d. 19 1.393 1.34 2.733 3 20 s.d. 29 1.422 1.191 2.613 4 30 s.d. 59 2.739 2.778 5.517 5 60 lebih 1.085 1.479 2.564 total 7.257 7.331 14.558 sumber: kesekretariatan kantor desa bejiharjo tabel 4 menunjukkan usia dengan dominasi paling tinggi adalah usia 30–59 tahun yaitu sebesar 5.517 orang yang terdiri dari 2.739 berjenis kelamin laki-laki dan 2.778 orang berjenis kelamin perempuan kemudian disusul dengan penduduk dengan usia 2.613 orang yang terdiri dari 1.422 orang berjenis kelamin laki-laki dan 1.191 orang berjenis kelamin perempuan. sehingga dengan data tersebut dapat diketahui bahwa regenerasi untuk usia produktif memiliki peluang unutk beberapa tahun ke depan. hal ini membuktikan bahwa penduduk usia produktif desa bejiharjo menjadi tunggak pergerakan ekonomi di desa bejiharjo. jenis pekerjaan masyarakat desa bejiharjo berdasarkan data yang diperoleh, pekerjaan masyarakat cukup bervariasi, seperti yang ditampilkan pada tabel 5 bahwa tingkat pekerjaan masyarakat yang paling dominan adalah sebagai petani yaitu sebesar 46,55 persen. profesi terbanyak kedua di desa bejiharjo adalah pekerja lainnya, termasuk salah satunya yaitu pemandu wisata. buruh swasta memiliki persentase sebesar 16,35 persen dari seluruh penduduk desa bejiharjo. selain itu sebagian masyarakat tabel 3. data penduduk desa bejiharjo berdasarkan tingkat pendidikan no padukuhan tingkat pendidikan (sederajat) jumlah sd smp sma perguruan tinggi 1 banyubening i 120 52 122 25 319 2 banyubening ii 124 86 98 14 322 3 bulu 540 174 56 2 772 4 gelaran i 71 64 21 6 162 5 gelaran ii 119 148 120 4 391 6 grogol i 235 198 170 9 612 7 grogol iii 149 110 65 9 333 8 grogol iv 257 149 145 12 563 9 grogol v 222 164 128 11 525 10 grogol vi 222 102 113 8 445 11 grogolii 213 94 48 12 367 12 gunungbang 178 105 85 11 379 13 gunungsari 63 35 30 13 141 14 karang lor 370 292 225 15 902 15 karangmojo 180 159 145 14 498 16 kulwo 96 38 121 19 274 17 ngringin 59 62 74 11 206 18 seropan 107 96 81 8 292 19 sokoliman i 171 121 87 30 409 20 sokoliman ii 94 108 111 25 338 total 3.590 2.357 2.045 258 8.250 sumber: kesekretariatan kantor desa bejiharjo jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 1, april 2013: 67-79 72 juga banyak yang memanfaatkan keberadaan objek wisata goa pindul untuk mencari nafkah dengan cara berdagang, yaitu sebesar 7,10 persen. masyarakat desa bejiharjo sampai saat ini masih ada yang menekuni pekerjaannya sebagai peternak yaitu sebesar 3,80 persen dan tukang sebesar 3,55 persen. sementara itu, pekerjaan sebagai pegawai negeri sipil (pns) merupakan pekerjaan minoritas di desa bejiharjo, yaitu sebesar 1,65 persen dengan jumlah pensiunannya sebesar 1,15 persen. pekerjaan polri juga menjadi pekerjaan minoritas di desa bejiharjo dengan angka sebesar 0,65 persen. dengan adanya kawasan wisata goa pindul yang telah dikembangkan, dapat membantu masyarakat sebagai sumber pendapatan dengan mengembangkan usaha kecil di sekitar kawasan wisata goa pindul. tabel 5. data penduduk desa bejiharjo berdasarkan jenis pekerjaan no jenis pekerjaan jumlah persentase (%) 1 pns 174 1,65 2 pensiunan pns 121 1,15 3 polri 26 0,25 4 pedagang 745 7,1 5 tukang 371 3,55 6 buruh swasta 1.714 16,35 7 tani 4.880 46,55 8 ternak 399 3,8 9 lainnya 2.054 19,6 total 10.484 100% sumber : kesekretariatan kantor desa bejiharjo persentase persepsi masyarakat tentang daya tarik goa dapat ditampilkan pada tabel 6. tabel 6. pengetahuan masyarakat tentang daya tarik goa pindul no. pilihan jumlah persentase 1 ya 55 91,60% 2 tidak 0 0 3 tidak tahu 5 8,40% total 60 100% tabel 6 diperoleh dengan melakukan wawancara terhadap 60 responden dapat diketahui 91,6 persen masyarakat mengetahui adanya daya tarik pada goa pindul, sedangkan yang tidak tahu tentang daya tarik yaitu sebesar 8,4 persen, selain itu masyarakat yang berpendapat bahwa tidak ada daya tarik dari pantai goa pindul adalah sebesar 0 persen. masyarakat berpendapat bahwa ada beberapa daya tarik goa pindul yaitu pemandangan yang sangat indah seperti stalaktit dan stalagmit yang terdapat di dalam goa dan keunikan struktur goa yang dapat dimanfaatkan sebagai cave tubbing. ini berarti bahwa masyarakat itu sadar dengan adanya nilai jual panorama eksotis dari goa pindul itu sendiri. aktivitas yang dilakukan oleh masyarakat yaitu berdagang, bertani, berkebun, dan memandu wisatawan (tourist guide). dengan melimpahnya sumber air yang memadai membuat aktivitas yang banyak diminati oleh masyarakat adalah bertani dan berkebun. melihat aktivitas yang dilakukan oleh masyarakat di kawasan goa pindul ini dapat menimbulkan dampak positif terhadap pengembangan objek wisata goa pindul dan perekonomian masyarakat itu sendiri. hal ini disebabkan karena masyarakat mampu memanfaatkan keberadaan objek wisata goa pindul sebagai lahan pengahasilan pokok maupun tambahan dan mampu melakukan pengelolaan yang baik terhadap kawasan wisata goa pindul. sehingga keberadaan objek wisata goa pindul, maka dapat meningkatkan taraf hidup dengan mengembangkan usaha kecil disekitar kawasan goa pindul. melalui data hasil wawancara diperoleh sarana yang terdapat pada kawasan wisata goa pindul seperti yang di mushola, kamar mandi/ wc, kantin atau warung makan, tempat parkir, tempat sampah dan penginapan untuk saat ini sudah ada di ditempat wisata goa pindul, namun dari sarana trasportasi sendiri tidak menunjang, karena tidak tersedia angkutan umum untuk menuju kawasan wisata goa pindul. kondisi ekonomi masyarakat di kawasan goa pindul pdrb perkapita kecamatan karangmojo selalu mengalami kenaikan setiap tahunnya, pdrb perkapita karangmojo pada tahun 2008 dilihat dari harga konstan menunjukkan angka sebesar 3.990.203 rupiah yang kemudian angka kontribusi objek wisata ... (restika cahya ningsih) 73 tersebut meningkat 6,5 persen atau sebesar 278.180 rupiah menjadi 4.268.383 rupiah di tahun 2009. pada tahun selanjutnya, yaitu tahun 2010, pdrb perkapita kembali mengalami kenaikan dari 4.268.383 rupiah menjadi 4.445.128 rupiah. tabel 7. pdrb per kapita kecamatan karangmojo tahun 2008-2011 tahun pdrb per kapita (berlaku) pdrb per kapita (konstan) 2008 6.771.305 3.990.203 2009 7.610.614 4.268.383 2010 8.471.776 4.445.128 2011 9.111.112 4.625.542 sumber: pdrb kecamatan karangmojo,2008-2011 namun pada tahun tersebut prosentase kenaikannya menurun menjadi 3,9 persen. begitu juga yang terjadi tahun 2010 ke tahun 2011, berdasarkan hrga konstan, pdrb perkapita tahun 2011 meningkat menjadi 4.625.542 rupiah dengan prosentase kenaikan sama dengan tahun sebelumnya, yaitu sebesar 3,9 persen. hal tersebut menggambarkan bahwa masyarakat kecamatan karangmojo mengalami pertumbuhan ekonomi ke arah yang positif walaupun tidak dapat dipungkiri jumlah kenaikan pdrb perkapita setelah dibukanya goa pindul sebagai objek wisata menurun dari jumlah kenaikan pdrb perkapita sebelum goa pindul diresmikan menjadi objek wisata. sementara itu, jika dilihat dari sisi pdrb perkapita berdasarkan harga berlaku, jumlah kenaikan yang terjadi dari tahun 2008 ke tahun 2010 dan tahun 2010 ke tahun 2011. dari tahun 2008 ke tahun 2009, pdrb per kapita kecamatan karanmojo mengalami kenaikan sebesar 11 persen atau sejumlah 839.309 rupiah yaitu dari 6.771.305 rupiah menjadi 7.610.614 rupiah. persentase kenaikan tahun selanjutnya hanya sebesar 10,17 persen di tahun 2010 dan 7 persen di tahun 2011. yang berarti gambaran tersebut menjelaskan bahwa dibukanya goa pindul sebagai objek wisata tidaklah mempengaruhi kenaikan pdrb perkapita secara signifikan. dibukanya goa pindul sebagai objek wisata hanya berpengaruh pada pdrb kecamatan secara keseluruhan, dan tidak pada masyarakat perseorangannya. keadaan ekonomi kecamatan karangmojo sebelum dan sesudah goa pindul dikomersialkan yaitu berdasarkan tabel 8 (lampiran) bahwa terjadi peningkatan jumlah pdrb oleh beberapa sektor. di sektor pertanian, diketahui dari tahun 2008 sampai 2010 mengalami peningkatan. namun, pada tahun 2011 mengalami penurunan. hal ini terjadi karena pada saat objek wisata goa pindul dibuka pada tahun 2010 para petani di wilayah kecamatan karangmojo beralih profesi menjadi pemandu wisata di objek wisata goa pindul. karena terjadi peralihan profesi ini, keadaannya berimbas pada tahun 2011 yang perekonomiannya sedikit menurun. selanjutnya pada sektor lain seperti sektor pertambangan dan penggalian, industri pengolahan, listrik, gas dan air bersih, bangunan, perdagangan, hotel dan restoran, pengangkutan dan komunikasi, keuangan, persewaan dan jasa perusahaan, dan jasa-jasa dari tahun 2008 sampai 2011 mengalami kenaikan yang cukup signifikan. sementara itu, terkait dengan dibukanya goa pindul sebagai objek wisata, jumlah angka kenaikan pdrb yang paling besar ditemukan dalam sektor perdagangan, hotel, dan restoran. pada sektor tersebut, dari tahun 2008 ke tahun 2009 mengalami kenaikan sebesar 408 juta rupiah atau sebesar 1,27 persen. kemudian dari tahun 2009 ke tahun 2010 jumlah kenaikan tersebut meningkat lima kali lipat lebih dari jumlah kenaikan tahun sebelumnya, yaitu sebesar 2.633 juta rupiah, yang berarti laju pertumbuhan ekonomi sektor perdagangan, hotel, dan restoran pada tahun 2010 adalah sebesar 7,56 persen. selanjutnya dari tahun 2010 ke tahun 2011, laju pertumbuhan ekonomi sektor perdgangan, hotel, dan restoran adalah sebesar 3,66 persen yaitu sebanyak 1.324 juta rupiah. berdasarkan analisis kenaikan tingkat pdrb dan laju pertumbuhan tersebut dapat disimpulkan bahwa dengan adanya objek wisata goa pindul mampu mengarahkan laju pertumbuhan ekonomi kecamatan karangmojo ke arah yang positif. secara lebih rinci, peningkatan pdrb dan laju pertumbuhan ekonomi ditunjukkan oleh subsektor perdagangan, hotel, dan restoran, yaitu sub sektor perdagangan besar dan sub sub sektor restoran. dilihat dari tabel 8, perdagangan besar dan eceran memiliki tingkat kenaikan pdrb yang cukup signifikan. sejak tahun 2008 hingga tahun 2009, jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 1, april 2013: 67-79 74 pdrb sub sektor perdagangan besar dan eceran meningkat dari 21.376 juta rupiah menjadi 21.478 juta rupiah, kenaikan tersebut sejumlah 102 juta rupiah. kemudian dari tahun 2009 hingga tahun 2010, sub sektor perdagangan besar dan eceran mengalami keanaikan yang signifikan yaitu sejumlah 1.692 juta rupiah, bermula 21.478 juta rupiah menjadi 23.170 juta rupiah, dan pada tahun 2010 sebesar 23.170 juta rupiah menjadi 24.177 juta rupiah pada tahun 2011. laju pertumbuhan ekonomi sub sektor perdagangan besar dan eceran tersebut mengalami kenaikan sebesar 4,1 persen. di sektor-sektor lainnya yang juga berkaitan erat dengan dibukanya goa pindul sebagai objek wisata yaitu sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi serta sektor jasa-jasa swasta yang bergerak di bidang hiburan dan rekreasi. pada sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi, kenaikan tingkat pdrb yang dialami dari tahun 2008 ke tahun 2009 sebelum dibukanya objek wisata goa pindul yaitu sebesar 144 juta rupiah yaitu 2,16 persen. setelah dibukanya objek wisata goa pindul pada tahun 2010, jumlah kenaikan pdrb sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi sebesar 332 juta rupiah atau 4,7 persen, dan dari tahun 2010 ke tahun 2011 mengalami peningkatan sebesar 300 juta rupiah atau 4,1 persen. kemudian pada sektor jasa-jasa swasta di bidang rekreasi dan hiburan, pdrb kecamatan karangmojo dari tahun 2009 ke 2010 mengalami kenaikan yaitu dari 259 juta rupiah menjadi 277 juta rupiah atau sebesar 18 juta rupiah, dengan laju pertumbuhan ekonomi senilai 6,4 persen. selanjutnya di tahun 2011, laju pertumbuhan ekonomi mengalami kenaikan sebesar 12,6 persen dari tahun 2010, dengan jumlah peningkatan pdrb sebesar 40 juta rupiah. hal itu membuktikan bahwa objek wisata goa pindul memiliki potensi yang patut dikembangkan sebagai penunjang laju pertumbuhan ekonomi di kecamatan karangmojo, gunungkidul. berdasarkan hasil survei, diketahui kekuatan dan kelemahan, peluang dan ancaman yang dapat dilihat pada tabel 9. analisis swot yang telah dilakukan maka strategi dan arah pengembangan kawasan objek wisata goa pindul adalah sebagai berikut: strategi 1: meningkatkan dan mengembangkan perekonomian dan serta meberdayakan sumber daya manusia yang ada di desa bejiharjo dengan arahan pengelolaan dengan mengelola objek tabel 9. matriks swot pengembangan eksternal internal kekuatan (s) kelemahan (w) 1. tedapat sumber daya manusia muda dengan rata-rata usia produktif. 2. sudah dipulikasikan dengan baik melalui media nyata dan maya. 3. memiliki ekosistem goa yang masih alami. 4. memiliki keindahan alam yang eksotis yang menarik. 5. tingkat pendidikan yang berlevel smp dan sma sederajat. 1. kurang kerjasama antara pengelola dengan pemerintah 2. minimnya infrastruktur jalan dan angkutan ummmenuju lokasi 3. minimnya sumber daya manusia yang punya skill bahasa inggris dalam melayani turis dari mancanegara. 4. jiwa entrepreneurship yang rendah. peluang (o) strategi s-o strategi w-o 1. belum banyak objek wisata sejenis didaerah gunungkidul, bahkan di diy. 2. sumber pendapatan dan peluang masyarakat desa bejiharjo. 3. kondisi agama, politik dan keamanan yang kondusif. 1. peraturan menteri dalam negeri nomor 66 tahun 2007 tentang perencanaan pembangunan desa. 2. mengupayakan kondisi alam goa pindul agar tetap terjaga dan dimanfaatkan secara berkelanjutan. 1. mengupayakan adanya infrastruktur jalan dan angkutan umum 2. mengupayakan pelatihan bahasa asing bagi pemandu. ancaman (t) strategi st strategi wt 1. munculnya objek wisata sejenis yang menyerupai goa pindul. 2. ulah pengunjung yang tidak tanggung jawab dapat merusak ekosistem. 1. pengelolaan objek wisata goa pindul lebih dikembangkan, supaya tidak kalah saing dengan objek wisata lain. 1. membangun kerjasama antar pengelola dan pemerintah daerah. 2. meningkatkan pengembangan objek wisata goa pindul. kontribusi objek wisata ... (restika cahya ningsih) 75 wisata sebaiknya direkrut dari masyarakat sekitar desa bejiharjo dan menerbitkan peraturan tentang usaha-usaha kecil yang telah dikelola oleh masyarakat bejiharjo. strategi 2: mengupayakan kondisi alam goa pindul agar tetap terjaga dan dimanfaatkan secara berkelanjutan dengan arahan pengelolaan dengan menerbitkan peraturan pengunjung agar tetap menjaga kelestarian alam yang ada di sekitar wisata goa pindul dengan cara pengelola atau pemandu membuat poster dan slogan tentang arti pentingnya memelihara kelestarian objek wisata. strategi 3: mengupayakan adanya infrastruktur jalan dan angkutan umum serta mengupayakan pelatihan bahasa asing bagi pemandu dengan cara sebagai berikut; (1) mengajukan proposal ke pemerintah gunungkidul untuk memperbaiki infrastruktur jalan dan pengadan angkutan umm menuju objek wisata (pemasangan peta petunjuk arah menuju lokasi wisata goa pindul dan (2) mengadakan pelatihan bahasa asing bagi pemandu wisata goa pindul dengan bekerjasama dengan pihak pemerintah terkait. strategi 4: pengelolaan objek wisata goa pindul lebih dikembangkan, supaya tidak kalah saing dengan objek wisata lain dengan melakukan inovasi baru seperti menambah dan memperbaiki fasilitas di kawasan objek wisata goa pindul dengan menambah fasilits. seperti out bond, flaying fox, taman bermain untuk anakanak,kantin kurang memadai, angkutan umum. strategi 5: membangun kerjasama antarpengelola dan pemerintah daerah secara insentif di mana saling menguntungkan dua belah terkait dan pada pengelola masyarakat goa pindul pada kususnya. strategi 6: meningkatkan pengembangan objek wisata goa pindul dengan cara; (1) pemasangan iklan pada berbagai media, baik dari internet surat kabar dan lain-lain dan (2) mengusulkan kepada pemerintah kabupaten maupun provinsi untuk mendaftarkannya ke dalam kawasan objek wisata. analisis trend linier peramalan potensi goa pindul studi ini menghitung jumlah peningkatan perekonomian penduduk sekitar bejiharjo, dengan data yaitu berdasarkan jumlah pengunjung yang datang di objek wisata gelaran i, bahwa itulah satu-satunya pemasukan yang sangat besar dari jumlah pengunjung yang datang ke objek wisata yang ada di gelaran i, dengan harga tiket yang ditetapkan oleh masyarakat yaitu dikenai biaya @rp 35.000. maka dari itu kami bisa mengolah data dengan metode tren (meramal) perkembangan beberapa tahun kemudian, dengan metode ini kami bisa mengetahui naik dan turunya pengunjung yang datang ke objek wisata di gelaran i bejiharjo kecamatan karangmojo. untuk mempermudah dalam penghitungan peramalan dengan metode trend linier maka dibentuklah data perkuartal tiap tahun, peneliti menjumlah jumlah pengunjung dari empat kelompok bulan yaitu: kuartal (januari, februari, maret); kuartal (april, tabel 10. kalkulasi pengunjung goa pindul berdasarkan kuartal bulan jumlah pengunjung per tahun (orang) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 jan 23 k2 3177 k6 7856 k10 7159 k14 feb 41 1753 4877 3727 mar 83 2299 5392 5372 apr 142 k3 3336 k7 3166 k11 4305 k15 mei 241 2617 6735 10218 jun 452 3238 6716 6582 jul 621 k4 4209 k8 3209 k12 agu 663 7367 9215 sep 460 6523 5030 okt 19 k1 472 k5 6907 k9 5478 k13 nov 26 812 6746 6270 des 30 1411 11140 8077 sumber : kesekretariatan kantor desa bejiharjo jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 1, april 2013: 67-79 76 mei, juni); kuartal (juli, agustus, september); kuartal (oktober, november, desember) penentuan persamaan garis regresi dengan memasukkan ke dalam rumus. berdasarkan tabel 11 diperoleh perumusan persamaan garis regresi sebagai berikut: a = ∑y / n = 174192 / 15 = 11612,8 b = ∑xy / ∑x2 = 480826 / 208 = 2311,66 persamaan regresi diperoleh, y = a + bx y = 11612,8 + 2311,66x setelah rumus persamaan regresi didapat dapat diperkirakan jumlah pengunjung/wisatawan goa pindul untuk kuartal tahun berikutnya dengan tabel 10. diketahui ramalan kalkulasi pendapatan pariwisata goa pindul dengan rumus pendapatan = jumlah pengunjung x biaya retribusi (@35.000) sebagaimana seperti pada tabel 12 (lampiran) simpulan masyarakat bejiharjo kecamatan karangmojo, desa gelaran memiliki potensi sebagai kekuatan dan peluang. kekuatanya, yaitu: (1) terdapat sumber daya manusia muda dengan rata-rata usia produktif. (2) sudah dipublikasikan dengan baik melalui media nyata dan maya. (3) memiliki ekosistem goa yang masih alami. (4) memiliki keindahan alam yang eksotis yang menarik. (5) tingkat pendidikan yang berlevel smp dan sma sederajat. (6) peraturan menteri dalam negeri nomor 66 tahun 2007 tentang perencanaan pembangunan desa dan petunjuk teknis perencanaan pembangunan desa. dan peluangnya, yaitu: (1) belum banyak objek wisata sejenis di daerah gunungkidul, bahkandi diy. (2) sumber pendapatan dan peluang masyarakat desa bejiharjo. (3) kondisi agama, politik dan keamanan yang kondusif. selain memiliki peluang dan kekuatan, masyarakat bejiharjo juga memiliki kelemahan dan ancaman. kelemahanya yaitu: (1) kurang tabel 11. perkiraan jumlah pengunjung/wisatawan goa pindul tahun kuartal* jenis kuartal x persamaan perkiraan pengunjung (orang) 2014 k16 kuartal iii 8 y = 11612,8 + 2311,66 x 30.106,08 k17 kuartal iv 9 y = 11612,8 + 2311,66 x 32.417,74 2015 k18 kuartal i 10 y = 11612,8 + 2311,66 x 34.729,40 k19 kuartal ii 11 y = 11612,8 + 2311,66 x 37.041,06 k20 kuartal iii 12 y = 11612,8 + 2311,66 x 39.352,72 k21 kuartal iv 13 y = 11612,8 + 2311,66 x 41.664,38 2016 k22 kuartal i 14 y = 11612,8 + 2311,66 x 43.976,04 k23 kuartal ii 15 y = 11612,8 + 2311,66 x 46.287,70 k24 kuartal iii 16 y = 11612,8 + 2311,66 x 48.599,36 k25 kuartal iv 17 y = 11612,8 + 2311,66 x 50.911,02 2017 k26 kuartal i 18 y = 11612,8 + 2311,66 x 53.222,68 k27 kuartal ii 19 y = 11612,8 + 2311,66 x 55.534,34 k28 kuartal iii 20 y = 11612,8 + 2311,66 x 57.846,00 k29 kuartal iv 21 y = 11612,8 + 2311,66 x 60.157,66 2018 k30 kuartal i 22 y = 11612,8 + 2311,66 x 62.469,32 k31 kuartal ii 23 y = 11612,8 + 2311,66 x 64.780,98 k32 kuartal iii 24 y = 11612,8 + 2311,66 x 67.092,64 k33 kuartal iv 25 y = 11612,8 + 2311,66 x 69.404,30 2019 k34 kuartal i 26 y = 11612,8 + 2311,66 x 71.715,96 k35 kuartal ii 27 y = 11612,8 + 2311,66 x 74.027,62 k36 kuartal iii 28 y = 11612,8 + 2311,66 x 76.339,28 k37 kuartal iv 29 y = 11612,8 + 2311,66 x 78.650,94 2020 k38 kuartal i 30 y = 11612,8 + 2311,66 x 80.966,00 k39 kuartal ii 31 y = 11612,8 + 2311,66 x 83.274,26 k40 kuartal iii 32 y = 11612,8 + 2311,66 x 85.585,92 k41 kuartal iv 33 y = 11612,8 + 2311,66 x 87.897,58 keterangan: k8 sebagai k pertama kontribusi objek wisata ... (restika cahya ningsih) 77 kerjasama yang insentif dan menguntungkan pihak pengelola dengan pemerintah. (2) minimnya infrastruktur jalan dan angkutan umm menuju lokasi. (3) minimnya sumber daya manusia yang punya keterampilan bahasa inggris dalam melayani turis dari mancanegara. (4) jiwa entrepreneurship yang rendah. dan ancamanya yaitu: (1) munculnya objek wisata sejenis yang menyerupai gua pindul. (2) ulah pengunjung yang tidak tanggung jawab dapat merusak ekosistem. strategi perbaikan pemberdayaan masyarakat bejiharjo kecamatan karangmojo desa gelaran adalah sebagai berikut: (1) peraturan menteri dalam negeri nomor 66 tahun 2007 tentang perencanaan pembangunan desa dan petunjuk teknis perencanaan pembangunan desa. (2) mengupayakan kondisi alam gua pindul agar tetap terjaga dan dimanfaatkan secara berkelanjutan. (3) mengupayakan adanya infrastruktur jalan dan angkutan umum serta mengupayakan pelatihan bahasa asing bagi pemandu. (4) pengelolaan objek wisata goa pindul lebih dikembangkan, supaya tidak kalah saing dengan objek wisata lain. (5) membangun kerjasama antarpengelola dan pemerintah daerah. (6) meningkatkan pengembangan objek wisata goa pindul. kondisi perekonomian masyarakat kecamatan karangmojo mengalami kenaikan yang signifikan. hal ini dapat dilihat dari data pdrb kecamatan karangmojo sebelum dan sesudah dibukanya objek wisata goa pindul yaitu periode tahun 2008 sampai dengan 2011. data tersebut menunjukkan laju pertumbuhan ekonomi beberapa sektor di kecamatan karangmojo yang bergerak positif atau dengan kata lain mengalami peningkatan. laju pertumbuhan ekonomi di beberapa sektor tersebut semakin meningkat pada saat dibukanya goa pindul sebagai objek wisata, khususnya pada sektor jasa-jasa swasta di bidang hiburan dan rekreasi. berdasarkan analisis data-data sekunder dan primer yang telah dilakukan, maka dapat diambil kesimpulan bahwa objek wisata goa pindul merupakan objek wisata yang patut dikembangkan untuk menunjang perekonomian kecamatan karangmojo, gunungkidul. kondisi perekonomian masyarakat kecamatan karangmojo, menggambarkan bahwa masyarakat mengalami pertumbuhan ekonomi kearah yang positif walaupun tidak dapat dipungkiri jumlah kenaikan pdrb perkapita setelah dibukanya goa pindul sebagai objek wisata menurun dari jumlah kenaikan pdrb perkapita sebelum goa pindul diresmikan menjadi objek wisata. yang berarti gambaran tersebut menjelaskan bahwa dibukanya goa pindul sebagai objek wisata tidaklah mempengaruhi kenaikan pdrb perkapita secara signifikan. dibukanya goa pindul sebagai objek wisata hanya berpengaruh pada pdrb kecamatan secara keseluruhan, dan tidak pada masyarakat perseorangan. berdasarkan kesimpulan di atas, maka beberapa saran diusulkan sebagai bahan masukan dalam memberdayakan ekonomi masyarakat bejiharjo di desa gelaran adalah sebagai berikut: 1) pemberian bantuan kepada masyarakat perlu ditingkatkan, khususnya peralatan dan perlengkapan; 2) melakukan penguatan pada permasalahan internal dan eksternal perekonomian masyarakat bejiharjo yang meliputi kelemahan dan ancaman bagi masyarakat bejiharjo; 3) dinas terkait memberikan penyuluhan tentang pembangunan sdm dan pelatihan apa-apa yang harus masyarakat bejiharjo dapatkan dari si penyuluh; 4) pemberdayaan institusi-institusi yang memiliki fokus perhatian terhadap pengembangan masyarkat bejiharjo, agar memiliki komitmen untuk bersama-sama mengembangkan desa wisata goa pindul. daftar pustaka supangat, a. (2007). statistika dalam kajian deskriptif, inferensi dan nonparametrik. edisi pertama. jakarta: kencana prenada media group. dinas pariwisata dan kebudayaan. (tt) katalog objek dan daya tarik wisata, jogja the real java. yogyakarta: dinas pariwisata dan kebudayaan kota yogyakarta. matitaputty, r. (2013). modul peranan pariwisata dan bidang sosial-ekonomi. maret 2013. rangkuti, f. (2005). analisis swot teknik membedah kasus bisnis reorientasi konsep perencanaan strategis untuk menghadapi abad 21. jakarta: pt. gramedia pustaka utama. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 1, april 2013: 67-79 78 pendit, n., (1999). ilmu pariwisata sebuah pengantar perdana. jakarta: pt. pradnya paramita. andi, p., (2011). metodologi penelitian kualitatif: dalam perpektif rancangan penelitian. yogyakarta: arruzz media. sukardi. (2011). peranan pendapatan retribusi objek pariwisata batu raden terhadap pendapatan retribusi daerah kabupaten banyumas. majalah ilmiah ekonomika volume 14 nomor 3, agustus 2011. yudananto, w., sutyaties s. remi. muljarijadi, b. (2010). peranan sektor pariwisata terhadap perekonomian daerah di indonesia (analisis interegional input-output). bandung: universitas penjajaran 2010. todaro, m, p., (1997). pembangunan ekonomi dunia ketiga. edisi keenam. jakarta: erlangga. kesekretariatan kantor desa bejiharjo. (2012) data penduduk desa beriharjo berdasarkan jenis pekerjaan. kesekretariatan kantor desa bejiharjo. (2012) data penduduk desa bejiharjo berdasarkan tingkat pendidikan. kesekretariatan kantor desa bejiharjo. (2012) klasifikasi umur masyarakat bejiharjo. bps. (2012) jumlah pengunjung daya tarik para wisata kabupaten gunungkidul tahun 2012. yogyakarta: bps diy. bps. (2012). produk domestik regional bruto atas harga konstan kabupaten gunungkidul 20082011. yogyakarta: bps diy. bps. (2012). produk domestik regional bruto atas harga berlaku kabupaten gunungkidul 20082011. yogyakarta: bps diy. bps. (2012). produk domestik regional bruto kecamatan karangmojo tahun 2008-2011. yogyakarta: bps diy. http://www.slideshare.net http://ssantoso.blogspot.com/2008/08/analisi s-trend-materi-x-pengertian-dan.html http://objekwisataindonesia.com/gua-pindul/ lampiran tabel 8. pdrb kecamatan karangmojo tahun 2008-2012 lapangan usaha 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1. pertanian 78.395 78.989 79.705 78.063 84.071 a. tanaman bahan makanan 63.839 64.891 66.096 61.858 70.269 b. tanaman perkebunan 1.522 1.709 1.734 1.754 2.347 c. peternakan dan hasil-hasilnya 7.505 6.958 6.617 7.700 5.202 d. kehutanan 5.129 5.102 5.036 6.496 5.655 e. perikanan 400 328 222 254 597 2. pertambangan dan penggalian 7.221 7.263 7.429 8.224 8.294 a. minyak dan gas bumi b. pertambangan tanpa migas c. penggalian 7.221 7.263 7.429 8.224 8.294 3. industri pengolahan 22.571 28.716 30.873 36.091 35.483 a. industri migas b. industri tanpa migas 22.571 28.716 30.873 36.091 35.483 4. listrik, gas dan air bersih 1.171 1.553 1.686 1.754 1.879 a. listrik 1.159 1.539 1.673 1.741 1.865 b. gas c. air bersih 12 14 13 13 14 5. bangunan 19.596 20.334 21.639 23.403 25.108 6. perdagangan, hotel dan restoran 31.790 32.198 34.831 36.155 37.682 a. perdagangan besar dan eceran 21.376 21.478 23.170 24.177 25.288 b. hotel c. restoran 10.414 10.720 11.661 11.978 12.394 7. pengangkutan dan komunikasi 6.517 6.661 6.993 7.293 7.691 a. pengangkutan 6.444 6.585 6.909 7.196 7.587 bersambung kontribusi objek wisata ... (restika cahya ningsih) 79 sambungan tabel 8. pdrb … lapangan usaha 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1. angkutan jalan raya 6.347 6.485 6.800 7.073 7.547 2. jasa penunjang angkutan 98 100 109 124 130 b. komunikasi 72 76 84 96 104 1. pos dan telekomunikasi 72 76 84 96 104 2. jasa penunjang komunikasi lapangan usaha 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 8. keuangan, sewa dan jasa perusahaan 7.380 7.561 8.197 8.961 9.553 a. bank 717 735 830 946 1.070 b. lembaga keuangan bukan bank 1.275 1.331 1.424 1.626 1.746 c. jasa penunjang keuangan d. sewa bangunan 5.137 5.237 5.671 6.078 6.414 e. jasa perusahaan 251 258 272 310 322 9. jasa-jasa 24.457 24.914 25.427 26.186 28.540 a. pemerintahan umum 20.700 21.027 21.270 21.717 23.824 1. administrasi pemerintahan dan pertahanan 11.374 11.608 11.251 11.050 12.297 2. jasa pemerintahan lainnya 9.326 9.419 10.019 10.666 11.526 b. swasta 3.757 3.887 4.157 4.469 4.717 1. sosial kemasyarakatan 1.591 1.651 1.771 1.894 1.970 lapangan usaha 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2. hiburan dan rekreasi 244 259 277 317 341 3. perorangan dan rumah tangga 1.923 1.977 2.109 2.258 2.405 produk domestik regional bruto 199.099 208.189 216.780 226.129 238.301 sumber: pdrb kecamatan karangmojo, 2008-2011 tabel 12. peramalan pendapatan objek wisata goa pindul tahun kuartal* jenis kuartal x peramalan pendapatan 2014 k16 kuartal iii 8 1.053.712.800 k17 kuartal iv 9 1.134.620.900 2015 k18 kuartal i 10 1.215.529.000 k19 kuartal ii 11 1.296.437.100 k20 kuartal iii 12 1.377.345.200 k21 kuartal iv 13 1.458.253.300 2016 k22 kuartal i 14 1.539.161.400 k23 kuartal ii 15 1.620.069.500 k24 kuartal iii 16 1.700.977.600 k25 kuartal iv 17 1.781.885.700 2017 k26 kuartal i 18 1.862.793.800 k27 kuartal ii 19 1.943.701.900 k28 kuartal iii 20 2.024.610.000 k29 kuartal iv 21 2.105.518.100 2018 k30 kuartal i 22 2.186.426.200 k31 kuartal ii 23 2.267.334.300 k32 kuartal iii 24 2.348.242.400 k33 kuartal iv 25 2.429.150.500 2019 k34 kuartal i 26 2.510.058.600 k35 kuartal ii 27 2.590.966.700 k36 kuartal iii 28 2.671.874.800 k37 kuartal iv 29 2.752.782.900 2020 k38 kuartal i 30 283.381.000 k39 kuartal ii 31 2.914.599.100 k40 kuartal iii 32 2.995.507.200 k41 kuartal iv 33 3.076.415.300 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 24 nomor 1, april 2023 article type: research paper the impact of foreign direct investment on income inequality in developing countries: the bayesian approach to thi hong gam*, dao le kieu oanh, and nguyen mau ba dang abstract: inequality in general and income inequality in particular have existed for a long time and tend to increase daily. foreign direct investment (fdi) is expected to be an important factor contributing to mitigating that situation. however, the results of previous empirical studies on the impact of fdi on income inequality have not reached a consistent conclusion. therefore, this study evaluated the impact of foreign direct investment on income inequality in developing economies. the study has provided evidence that the relationship is nonlinear through data from a sample of 36 developing countries between 2008 and 2020 and the monte-carlo algorithm according to the bayesian approach. we document a u-shaped effect of fdi on income inequality. besides, other factors, including trade openness and migration, obviously impact income inequality. different results were found when fdi interacted with trade or migration, representing important channels through which inequality is affected. with these results, we suggest that policymakers in developing countries should develop appropriate policies on fdi attraction encourage trade openness and migration to reduce income inequality. keywords: foreign direct investment; income inequality; developing countries; bayesian jel classification: e22; d6; c11 introduction aiming to achieve the sustainable development goals (sustainable development goals – including 17 goals of the 2030 agenda, officially adopted on 25 september, 2015 at the united nations summit with the participation of 193 member countries (the 17 goals | sustainable development, n.d.), one of the urgent requirements is to reduce inequality within and between countries (reduced inequalities), which includes income inequality . because it not only causes social instability but also has a negative effect on economic growth. it has been confirmed by the organization for economic co-operation and development (oecd): the growing trend of income inequality in a country can hold back its economic growth. specifically, according to the oecd, “an increase in income inequality over the past two decades would drag down economic growth by an average of 0.35 percentage points per year for 25 years, a cumulated loss in gdp at the end of the period of 8.5 percent” (oecd research, 2014). moreover, as economic inequality increases, the next generation will not enjoy equal opportunities such as access to information, thereby increasing affiliation: faculty of finance and banking, university of finance – marketing, ho chi minh city, vietnam *correspondence: togam@ufm.edu.vn this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v24i1.18164 citation: gam, t. t. h., oanh, d. l. k., & dang, n. m. b. (2023). the impact of foreign direct investment on income inequality in developing countries: the bayesian approach. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 24(1), 127-143. article history received: 14 mar 2023 revised: 19 may 2023 accepted: 23 may 2023 https://en.ufm.edu.vn/ https://en.ufm.edu.vn/ https://en.ufm.edu.vn/ mailto:togam@ufm.edu.vn http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp http://dx.doi.org/10.18196/jesp.v24i1.18164 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v24i1.18164&domain=pdf gam, oanh, & dang the impact of foreign direct investment on income inequality in developing countries … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 128 economic inequality, creating a loop over and over. christian aid also argues that highincome inequality can prevent children from low-income families from having the same opportunity to reach their full potential as children from higher income-status families. thus, income inequality at one point is both an outcome and a cause of the degree to which economic status is passed down through generations (corak, 2016). economic inequality has thus become a core social concern in all countries. international investment (especially in the form of foreign direct investment) is an important factor in achieving poverty reduction goals. because when capital is available, countries receiving investment can increase production productivity, more exported goods, contributing to a trade balance surplus, thereby boosting gdp growth (klein et al., 2001). in addition to the direct impact, fdi also has spillover effects on the host countries, which is creating opportunities for countries to access more advanced technology, easier technology transfer, promoting the process of disseminating knowledge, improving management skills and labor qualifications. this contributes to increasing the productivity of domestic enterprises, creating more jobs and incomes for workers and ultimately contributing to economic growth in general (zhang & felmingham, 2002). however, besides the positive effects, fdi is also considered as one of the factors causing income inequality. because foreign investors tend to invest directly in high-profit industries to take advantage of investment incentives, which will affect the income gap across disciplines (iammarino, 2018). in addition, areas that receive a lot of fdi will have increased production and business opportunities, attracting more workers from that region and other areas, causing income disparities in the labor market in the fdi sector and others (wei et al., 2009). employees in enterprises are also facilitated with additional training, which divides workers into two parts. the trained department has higher labor productivity and work efficiency so that they will receive additional benefits, have better job opportunities and income than the others (lipsey, 2002). this means that countries may have to trade off income inequality to achieve economic growth and eliminate poverty. it seems that developing countries which are expected to be difficult to achieve simultaneously the goals of rapid development, sustainable development and ensuring equity, will be the countries that can bear many impacts of foreign direct investment on income inequality than developed countries (aust et al., 2020). this prompts further studies on the impact of fdi on income distribution disparities in developing countries. there have been numerous studies on the relationship between fdi and income inequality, but surprisingly there is no consensus on this issue. opinions about the impact of fdi on income inequality can be as follows: fdi has no impact on income inequality (sylwester, 2005); fdi has a positive effect on income inequality (basu & guariglia, 2007; choi, 2006; pan-long, 1995) ; fdi has a negative impact on income inequality (chintrakarn et al., 2012; jensen & rosas, 2007; mugeni, 2015). in addition, kuznets (1955) argued that income inequality increases with economic growth at low-income levels and then begins to decline, meaning that there exists an inverted u-shaped relationship between economic development levels and income inequality. thus, if economic development arises from fdi, the relationship between fdi and income inequality may also follow an inverted u-curve, that is, the increase in foreign capital at the beginning of the development process will exacerbate income inequality, but it is expected to decrease gam, oanh, & dang the impact of foreign direct investment on income inequality in developing countries … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 129 when the optimal foreign direct investment stage is reached. some empirical studies have had results supporting kuznets' view (figini & go¨rg, 2011; herzer et al., 2014; nguyen, 2021). previous studies also tried to clarify the impact of fdi on income inequality when considering the role of other variables, for example trade openness (phan, 2022), institutions (nguyen, 2021), absorptive capacity (wu & hsu, 2012), human capital (mallick et al., 2020); or research in groups of countries with different levels of development such as developed/developing countries (nguyen, 2021; nguyen & darsono, 2022); or study in a specific country with different stages (chintrakarn et al., 2012; jensen & rosas, 2007). however, most of those studies are done by the traditional frequency approach, which assumes that the regression coefficients in the model are unknown and fixed, which are calculated through an infinite number of identical and repeated experiments. such an assumption will lead to the interpretation of statistical results that is no longer appropriate in many situations in the field of social sciences (briggs & nguyen, 2019). for effects taking place in the social environment cannot be experiments repeated over many years under the same conditions as in the field of the natural sciences. meanwhile, the bayesian method does not need to be based on the assumption that the observed patterns must repeat continuously, the regression coefficients in the bayesian model are a random quantity, the fluctuations of these coefficients will be affected by confounding factors, for example in this model, confounding factors will be specific to developing countries. in addition, the bayesian method also overcomes model defects such as autocorrelation, variable variance and endogeneity (ramírez hassan & montoya blandón, 2019; startz, 2012). therefore, in this study, the author also considers the effects of independent variables including trade openness, migration, inflation, public spending, institutions, unemployment, labor force, financial development, infrastructure, economic freedom index, etc. on income inequality, using the bayesian method instead of the frequency approach. this is a new contribution compared to the previous literature. with the above analyses, this study uses the bayesian method to explore the impact of fdi and other independent variables on income inequality in developing countries, including 36 countries during the period 2008 – 2020. the study also examines the threshold effect between foreign direct investment and income inequality (kuznets curve) and finds the turning point of fdi in developing countries. the results show that in developing countries, fdi positively affects income inequality. however, when fdi reaches 99% of gdp, fdi will have a negative effect on income inequality. in addition, when an increase in fdi coincides with an increase in trade openness or with an increase in migration, income inequality will also be reduced. this article is divided into four parts. section 2 presents the research method, including model, data and method. section 3 reports the experimental results and provides discussion. finally, section 4 gives the conclusion and implication. gam, oanh, & dang the impact of foreign direct investment on income inequality in developing countries … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 130 research method model based on the research theories, to achieve the set objectives, the author builds a panel regression model of this study as follows: giniit =β0 + β1*fdi it + β2*fdi2it + βx*xit + eit (1) where i = 1, 2,.., n; t = 1, 2, …, t (i is the country and t is the time observed in the model); independently distributed errors 𝑒𝑖𝑡≈ iid (0, б e 2 ). x are the control variables. table 1 description of variables in the research model variable name symbol measure source expected inheritance research dependent variable income inequality gini gini coefficient wdi, swiid (khan & nawaz, 2019; nguyen, 2021) independent variables foreign direct investment fdi net fdi (of gdp) wdi + (mallick et al., 2020; zulfiu alili & adnett, 2018) control variables trade openness trd trade (of gdp) wdi wits + (kim, 2022; rezk et al., 2022; zulfiu alili & adnett, 2018) migration mig net migration ( of total population) wdi + (matallah, 2019; phan, 2022) the governance index gi set of 6 indicators of wgi (six dimensions of governance, including control of corruption, government effectiveness, political stability and absence of violence, regulatory quality, rule of law, voice and accountability) wgi (kim, 2022; matallah, 2019; nguyen, 2021) labor force lab labor force participation rate (of total population aged 15 and over) wdi + (calderón & chong, 2001) inflation inf inflation, gdp deflator (annual %) wdi + (kim, 2022; rezk et al., 2022) private credit prvt domestic credit to the private sector (of gdp) wdi (rezk et al., 2022) digitalization net individuals using the internet (of total population) wdi (mohd daud et al., 2021) unemployment une unemployment (of total labor force (modeled ilo estimate)) wdi + (josifidis et al., 2020; zulfiu alili & adnett, 2018) remittances rem personal remittances, received (of gdp) wdi (mallick et al., 2020) gam, oanh, & dang the impact of foreign direct investment on income inequality in developing countries … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 131 table 1 description of variables in the research model (cont’) variable name symbol measure source expected inheritance research remittances rem personal remittances, received (of gdp) wdi (mallick et al., 2020) economic freedom ief index of economic freedom the heritage foundation + (zulfiu alili & adnett, 2018) infrastructure tel fixed telephone subscriptions (of population, total) wdi (kim, 2022; mallick et al., 2020) government spending geg government final consumption expenditures (of gdp) wdi (kim, 2022; mallick et al., 2020) financial development fd financial development index: (1) size of financial institutions and markets (financial depth), (2) degree to which individuals and firms can and do use financial services (access), (3) efficiency of financial intermediaries and markets in intermediating resources and (4) facilitating financial transactions (efficiency), and stability of financial institutions and markets (stability) imf, based on research by cihak et al. (2012) + (jauch & watzka, 2016) data the study uses annual data for the period 2008-2020 from 36 developing countries. the period and countries are selected depending on the availability of income inequality statistics. most data is collected from world development indicators available from the world bank (2022). for the missing data, the author has added from other sources including the standardized world income inequality database (swiid) and the world integrated trade solution (wits). the governance index data is collected from worldwide governance indicators (wgi), and index of economic freedom is from the heritage foundation. method according to the analysis in part 1, with the advantages of the bayesian method over the frequency method, the author chooses the bayesian approach when studying the impact of fdi on income inequality in developing countries. bayesian analysis is set up according to the conditional distribution rule: 𝑝(𝐵) = 𝑝(𝐴,𝐵) 𝑝(𝐵) (2) bayes theorem is set up as follows: 𝑝(𝐴) = 𝑝(𝐴|𝐵)𝑝(𝐵) 𝑝(𝐴) (3) gam, oanh, & dang the impact of foreign direct investment on income inequality in developing countries … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 132 where a and b are two random vectors. assuming the data vector y is a sample from a model with the unknown parameter vector θ, the model will be rewritten via the rational function: l( 𝜃;y) = f(y; 𝜃) = ∏ 𝑓(𝑛𝑖−1 y i |𝜃), (4) where: f(y i ; 𝜃) is the probability density function of y given 𝜃 given. with the available data, based on bayesian rule, we can deduce the properties of 𝜃 with the model parameters 𝜃 as random. the bayesian analysis will begin by defining a posterior model, which is a combination of collected research data and prior information to describe the distribution probabilities of the parameters. thus, the posterior distribution consists of two components: the rational function containing information about the model parameters based on the observed data and the a priori distribution containing the available information about the parameters in the model. posterior distribution ∝ rational function x a priori information with the traditional frequency method, the method that tests the statistical results is through the null hypothesis. for example, in this study, if we use the frequency method, we will hypothesize that h0: fdi reduces income inequality. we then compute the pvalue, which is the conditional probability. next, we interpret the p-value as the probability of the observed occurrence that fdi reduces income inequality under the hypothetical condition h0 is correct. after calculating the p-value, we will reject hypothesis h0 and conclude that fdi increases income inequality (if the p-value is less than 1%, 5% or 10%). however, with this method, we cannot calculate the percentage probability that fdi increases income inequality. meanwhile, the bayesian method can help calculate the probabilities of trends occurring by testing the bayesian posterior interval. this is considered the outstanding advantage of the bayesian method over the frequency method. result and discussion bayesian analysis is simulated through a markov chain monte carlo (mcmc). therefore, to ensure the stability of the bayesian regression, the mcmc series must converge, which means that the mcmc series must ensure stationarity. nikolay balov (2017, 2020) proposed that the mcmc series convergence test can be performed through the convergence diagnostic graph. according to nikolay balov (2017, 2020), trace plot helps to track the historical display of a parameter value across iterations of a series, if the trace plot fluctuates around the mean, then the series mcmc is stationary, that is, the convergence condition is met. gam, oanh, & dang the impact of foreign direct investment on income inequality in developing countries … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 133 figure 1 convergence diagnostic graph gam, oanh, & dang the impact of foreign direct investment on income inequality in developing countries … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 134 besides, the autocorrelation histogram fluctuates around the level below 0.02, which shows a good agreement with the distribution simulation density and reflects all the lags within the effective limit. the posterior distribution histogram and the density estimate show the simulation of the shape of the normal distribution of the parameters. the histogram shape is uniform, it can be concluded that bayesian inference is steady. as the results from figure 1 shows, all the graphs of the parameters in the model of the mcmc series meet all the convergence conditions as mentioned. table 2 bayes simulation results mean std. dev. mcse median equal-tailed [95% cred. interval] fdi 1.517975 8.288082 .082881 1.476104 -14,76494 17.84562 fdi2 -.7664863 7,017.492 .071272 -.7271101 -14.75283 12.87148 trd .0305945 .0114971 .000219 .0304217 .0079375 .0533933 mig .0719294 9,684,076 .09889 .1326932 -19.04042 18.68148 fdi.trd -.0057 .0793898 .000794 -.0045646 -.1607689 .1491763 fdi.mig -.2142193 1.004,576 .100458 -.2290034 -20.10254 19.35098 gi -.7921811 .3594288 .00503 -.7932792 -1.486691 -.0824242 lab .088191 .0505104 .000805 .0884552 -.0120826 .1862471 inf -.0062735 .023213 .000251 -.0066326 -.0514429 .039982 prvt -.044164 .0140466 .000213 -.044191 -.0723697 -.0166887 tel -.0698573 .0350441 .000583 -.0697366 -.1381564 -.0001138 une .3114192 .0483143 .000619 .3116566 .2184855 .4055636 rem -.1624159 .0754662 .001548 -.1625108 -.3093256 -.013258 ief 1.455471 .5784555 .007154 1.457726 .3207913 2.591633 net -.0247299 .0084312 .000118 -.0247465 -.0414499 -.0080583 geg -6.609215 6.778836 .084697 -6.648576 -20.03613 6.245514 fd .0591398 3.765205 .064125 .0712897 -7.360831 7.501619 _cons 2.404001 4.963765 .095206 2.404406 14.37214 33.81945 var .2914311 1.239979 331.022 -.1916272 -110.8852 113.5332 cid u0:sigma2 88.90248 23.57768 .328646 85.21133 53.76993 e.gini sigma2 3.704676 .2644856 .002645 3.689151 3.232573 acceptance rate .7138 efficiency: min .1403 in addition to diagnosing convergence by graph, nikolay balov, (2017, 2020) also proposes to test the average minimum efficiency through the acceptance rate. from table 2, it can be seen that the acceptance rate of the model reached 0.7138, and the minimum efficiency (efficiency: min) was 0.1403 exceeding the allowable level of 0.01, so the model met the requirements. bayesian regression also provides a bayesian confidence interval (equal-tailed 95% cred.interval), which provides a series for a parameter, and the probability that the parameter is in this series is 95%. bayesian approach through metropolis-hastings (mh) algorithm, the regression model is simulated 10,000 times, each time we get a regression coefficient, so the regression results table will show the mean (mean). in addition, bayes also provides the standard error (std.dev) for the regression coefficient, and the standard error monte-carlo. the monte-carlo standard gam, oanh, & dang the impact of foreign direct investment on income inequality in developing countries … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 135 error (mcse) of all parameters is very small. according to flegal et al., (2008), the closer the mcse is to zero, the stronger the mcmc series are. these authors also think that mcse values less than 6.5% of the standard deviation are acceptable and smaller than 5% of the standard deviation is optimal. for example, with the variable fdi, the mcse value of 0.082881 is less than 5% of the standard deviation (5% x 8.288082 = 0.4144041 > 0.082881). thus, the mcse value of the fdi regression coefficient reaches the optimal level. the results in table 2 show that the mcse values of the remaining regression coefficients satisfy the optimal level. the regression coefficients in table 2 show the change of the dependent variable gini when each independent variable’s average change is in the model. specifically: giniit = 2.404001 + 1.517975*fdiit 0.7664863*fdi2it + 0.0305945*trdit + 0.0719294*migit -0.0057*fdi.trdit 0.2142193*fdi.migit 0.7921811*giit + 0.088191*labit 0.0062735*infit 0.044164 *prvtit 0.0698573*telit + 0.3114192*uneit 0.1624159*remit + 1,455,471*iefit 0.0247299*netit – 6.609215*gegit + 0.0591398*fdit + eit (5) thus, variables fdi, trd, mig, lab, une, ief and fd will positively impact gini, while variables fdi.trd, fdi.mig, gi, inf, prvt, tel, rem, net, geg will have the opposite effect to gini. the regression coefficient of the fdi2 variable has a negative sign, which means that there exists a point at which gini reaches its maximum. the author applies the theory of fdi threshold to answer the question of what is the threshold of fdi. derive the regression equation (1) with respect to the variable fdi and give the derivative zero to find the turning point fdi at which the marginal effect of fdi on income inequality reverses, equal to of 𝛽1/2 𝛽2, specifically as follows: 𝐺𝐼𝑁𝐼𝑖𝑡 ′ = 2*0 .7664863 * 𝐹𝐷𝐼𝑖𝑡 + 1.517975 = 0, we have : 𝛽1/2 𝛽2 = 99%. thus, the fdi threshold of developing countries in the sample is 99% of gdp. below this threshold, fdi will have a positive effect on gini, but above this threshold, fdi will have a negative effect on gini. to know the probability of the effects of fdi and independent variables on income inequality, we test the bayesian posterior interval. table 3 bayesian posterior interval test mean std. dev. mcse { gini:fdi} > 0 .5791 0.49373 .0050082 { gini: fdi2 } < 0 .5493 0.49759 .0049759 { gini:trd} > 0 .9954 0.06767 .0007218 { gini:mig}> 0 .506 0.49999 .0049999 { gini:fdi.trd} < 0 .5389 0.49851 .005064 { gini:fdi.mig} < 0 .4962 0.5001 .0048408 { gini: gi } < 0 .9861 0.11708 .0012555 { gini:lab} > 0 .9604 0.19503 .0022984 gam, oanh, & dang the impact of foreign direct investment on income inequality in developing countries … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 136 table 3 bayesian posterior interval test (cont’) mean std. dev. mcse { gini:inf} <0 .6008 0.48976 .0048976 { gini:prvt}< 0 .9987 0.03603 .0003603 { gini: tel }< 0 .9786 0.14472 .0015962 { gini:une} > 0 1 0.00000 0 { gini:rem} < 0 .985 0.12156 .0013574 { gini:ief} > 0 .9951 0.06983 .000747 { gini:net} < 0 .9974 0.05093 .0005093 { gini:geg} < 0 .8296 0.37600 .0042713 { gini:fd} > 0 .5044 0.5001 .0078804 trade openness (trd) is also an important factor affecting income distribution inequality, whereby the positive probability for the trd variable is 99.54%. this result is in contrast to the stolper–samuelson theorem, which is derived from the hecksher–ohlin (ho) model, according to which the expansion of foreign trade improves income distribution in developing countries as it will increase the wages of unskilled workers while it will decrease the wages of skilled workers. however, some other studies are consistent with the result of this study, such as dorn et al., (2022) who argue that trade openness increases income inequality in developing and emerging countries. the reason is that the transition countries from eastern europe and china have experienced a rapid process of opening up to trade, but the welfare regimes and labor market institutions in these countries have not developed commensurately agreement with the process of trade opening, resulting in income distribution inequality. migration (mig) has a positive effect on gini with a probability of 50.6%, meaning that migration can push income inequality higher and vice versa. migration takes place only when there is a benefit to migrants, if this benefit is economical, then migrants tend to move to places where they are likely to have a higher income. according to jestl et al., (2018), developing countries often have an abundant unskilled labor force, if migrants are a highly skilled labor force, it will lead to competition for the labor force in the country, leading to a decrease in the income of native workers. the negative wage impact is exacerbated if non-member migrants are willing to work for lower wages, which reduces the wages of native members of the same skill set. this will lead to a wider gap in the income distribution. although when considering each factor trd and mig separately, it will increase income inequality, but the interaction variable fdi.trd and fdi.mig has a negative effect on gini in developing countries with probability times 53.89% and 49.62% respectively. this means that fdi will decrease gini as trade openness or migration increases. however, this probability is quite low, only approximately 50%, showing that the possibility of this opposite effect is not high. the governance index (gi) with a probability of 98.61% has the opposite effect with gini, meaning that a good governance environment could improve income inequality. this is consistent with the views of kim (2022); matallah (2019); rezk et al. (2022) who argue that improving the effectiveness of the government in planning and building, gam, oanh, & dang the impact of foreign direct investment on income inequality in developing countries … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 137 implementing policies related to economic growth, development in order to eliminate hunger and reduce poverty, and properly distribute the benefits of economic growth in society can reduce income inequality. the variable labour (lab) has the effect of increasing gini with a very high probability of 96.04 %. according to the law of supply and demand, if the supply of labor increases while its demand decreases or remains the same, the price of labor expressed in wages will decrease (stockhammer, 2013). furthermore, ilo statistical data (oecd, 2019) indicates that the informal economy accounts for about 70% of all employment in developing and emerging countries. informal sector workers often lack access to many or all aspects of the social protection system and labor regulations, resulting in serious loss of income. thus, an increase in the labor force in developing countries will increase income inequality. this is similar to the results of gopinath & chen (2003). the variable unemployment (une) increases gini with an absolute probability of 100%. similar results were seen in several previous studies. a typical example is zulfiu alili & adnett (2018), who argue that rising unemployment increases income inequality because unemployment benefits are often lower than previous wages. the contribution of unemployment to wage inequality would be greater if unemployment growth were more concentrated in the lower part of the income distribution. the index of economic freedom (ief) has a positive effect on gini with a probability of 60.08%. this result is similar to the study by zulfiu alili & adnett (2018) which shows that higher values of the index of economic freedom mean less intervention in the market, that is, the influence of unions and the unclear minimum wage law leads to increased wage inequality. technology infrastructure is represented by the number of fixed telephone subscriptions (tel) and digitization expressed in the number of internet users (net) have a negative impact on income inequality with the probability of 97.86% and 99.74%, demonstrating that enhanced technology infrastructure can address income inequality. this is also demonstrated in many previous research results (calderón & chong, 2001; mallick et al., 2020) remittances (rem) also reduce income inequality with a 98.5% probability. this is explained by the amount of remittances that have improved households’ welfare, leading to a reduction in income inequality (song et al., 2021). in addition, there is evidence that economies where remittances from abroad as a result of the increasing inflow of migrants have helped promote economic growth and tackle poverty, thereby reducing inequality in their country of origin (akobeng, 2016) contrary to initial expectations, inflation (inf) has a 60.08% probability of a negative gini effect, meaning that higher inflation will reduce income inequality. this is consistent with the phillip curve, when unemployment is high and inflation is low, inflation has a negative effect on income inequality. in addition, some studies have suggested that the inflationincome inequality relationship is u-shaped nonlinear. this is, for low inflation, more gam, oanh, & dang the impact of foreign direct investment on income inequality in developing countries … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 138 inflation correlates with a decrease in income inequality and for high inflation, more inflation means increased income inequality (galli & van der hoeven, 2002; siami-namini & hudson, 2019). monnin (2014) estimated the turning point of the inflation rate to be 13.3%. below this threshold, income inequality goes down as inflation increases; above that, income inequality goes up as inflation rises further. data on average inflation in developing countries during the survey period collected by the author are shown in the following chart: figure 2 average inflation of developing countries in the period 2008 2020 in figure 2, we can see that the average inflation of developing countries in the period 2008 2020 is always less than 12% , so if based on the threshold point calculated by monnin (2014) , inflation in developing countries growth in the sample increases will reduce income inequality and vice versa. personal credit (prvt) has a negative effect on gini with a probability of 99.87%. personal credit is expected to creep into different income classes to provide capital and financial services, thereby improving the quality of life, increasing income, and narrowing the gap between rich and poor. thereby, credit directly overcomes the financial exclusion in the low-income individual sector the main cause of income inequality. where there is an expansion of personal credit, income inequality is expected to decrease (aslan et al., 2017). the relationship between government final consumption expenditures (geg) and income inequality is negative, meaning that more government spending reduces income inequality and vice versa. the probability of this relationship is quite high 82.96%. this is explained as public spending affects income inequality in two ways: directly, according to the compensation thesis, the government will expand welfare expenditures to compensate those who suffer more disadvantaged in the process of globalization, making the income gap narrower (tridico, 2018); indirectly, government spending on infrastructure, health, education, etc., are driving factors in reduction of income inequality (mallick et al., 2020). 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 average inflation gam, oanh, & dang the impact of foreign direct investment on income inequality in developing countries … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 139 an increase in fd increases the gap between rich and poor in developing economies with a probability of 50.44%. with a developed financial system, it can efficiently allocate financial resources to the productive sector or it can increase human capital by investing in education. however, financial development can lead to unequal growth, creating income inequality. this may be the case when access to finance is limited to certain groups of people based on their income level, location of residence and ability to provide collateral for loans (sethi et al., 2021). conclusion although there are many empirical studies on the effects of fdi on income inequality, most of those studies have been conducted using the traditional frequency approach, which many researchers argue is the interpretation of statistical results is no longer appropriate in many situations in the social domain. therefore, the author used the bayesian method to study the impact of fdi on income inequality in developing countries in the period 2008-2020. besides, the author also tested the threshold effect between foreign direct investment and income inequality (kuznets curve) and found the turning point of fdi in developing countries. the estimated results show that fdi has a non-linear effect on income inequality. that means fdi will increase income inequality but when fdi reaches 99% of gdp, income inequality will tend to follow a downward direction. this result provides evidence that there is an optimal fdi threshold in developing countries, or in other words, the relationship between fdi and income inequality has the shape of an inverted u-curve. this finding may be due to the fact that fdi inflows may be concentrated in a particular region or sector. therefore, fdi inflows are increasing income inequality in developing economies. however, if fdi is to flow across regions and sectors, they will help reduce income inequality in developing economies. in addition, the variables of trade openness and migration also have a positive effect on income inequality. the findings in this study challenge the notion that globalization (as demonstrated by fdi flows, trade openness, and migration) necessarily leads to a more favorable income distribution. based on these findings, we urge policymakers and government officials of these developing economies to use fdi inflows more efficiently, distributing fdi across the regions as well as industries for economic development. however, one point to note in the results of this study is that although an increase in fdi, trade openness and immigration will exacerbate income inequality, fdi increases with increased trade openness and increased immigration could help close the gap in income distribution. this needs to be studied more closely in future studies. gam, oanh, & dang the impact of foreign direct investment on income inequality in developing countries … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2023 | 140 references akobeng, e. 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no country name country code no country name country code 1 albania alb 13 egypt, arab rep. egy 25 north macedonia mkd 2 argentina arg 14 el salvador slv 26 pakistan pak 3 armenia arm 15 georgia geo 27 peru per 4 bolivia bol 16 honduras hnd 28 poland pol 5 brazil bra 17 hungary hun 29 romania rou 6 bulgaria bgr 18 india ind 30 russian federation rus 7 chile chl 19 indonesia idn 31 serbia srb 8 china chn 20 kazakhstan kaz 32 south africa zaf 9 colombia col 21 kyrgyz republic kgz 33 thailand tha 10 croatia hrv 22 mali mli 34 turkiye tur 11 dominican rep dom 23 mexico mex 35 ukraine ukr 12 ecuador ecu 24 mongolia mong 36 vietnam vnm jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 2, oktober 2017, hlm. 173-182 doi: 10.18196/jesp.18.2.4048 strategi pengembangan kota magelang sebagai kawasan andalan di provinsi jawa tengah rica ayu nuraini, lilies setiartiti pogram studi ilmu ekonomi, fakultas ekonomi dan bisnis universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta email korespondensi: richaayun@gmail.com naskah diterima: agustus 2017; disetujui: oktober 2017 abstract: this research aims to determine the classification of economics structure and the leading sectors of magelang. the analysis of the research employs klassen’s tipology, location quotient and swot. the results show that the city of magelang is included in the advanced and fastgrowing regions with high economic growth and high per capita income. location quotient (lq) shows all secondary and tertiary sectors are included in the leading sectors, while agricultural sector, mining sector and manufacturing sector are not included in the leading sector. based on swot analysis, there are leading sectors that needs to be improved to persuade the better economic condition in the main area of magelang city, by taking action some possible development strategies, such as, improving the base sector’s products by utilizing advanced technology, maximizing the realization of investment and maximizing the sale of leading sector products as well as creative industry products. another possible startegies are creating a conducive business environment and improving the competitiveness of the regional economy. keywords: grdp, klassen typology, location quotient, swot jel classification: e01, r58, h70 abstrak: penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui klasifikasi struktur ekonomi dan sektor unggulan kota magelang. model analisis yang digunakan adalah analisis tipologi klassen, location quotient dan swot. hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kota magelang termasuk dalam klasifikasi daerah maju dan berkembang cepat dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi dan pendapatan per kapita yang tinggi. location quotient (lq) menunjukkan semua sektor sekunder dan tersier merupakan sektor unggulan kota magelang, sedangkan sektor pertanian, sektor pertambangan dan sektor manufaktur tidak termasuk sektor unggulan kota magelang. berdasarkan hasil analisis swot, strategi pengembangan bagi kawasan utama yang perlu dilakukan adalah dengan memperbaiki posisi ekonomi kota magelang, yaitu dengan mengembangkan produk sektor dasar dengan memanfaatkan kemajuan teknologi, memaksimalkan realisasi investasi dan memaksimalkan penjualan baik produk sektor unggulan maupun produk industri kreatif. strategi berikutnya adalah menciptakan iklim usaha yang kondusif dan meningkatkan daya saing perekonomian daerah. kata kunci: pdrb, tipologi klassen, location quotient, swot klasifikasi jel: e01, r58, h70 mailto:richaayun@gmail.com 174 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 2, oktober 2017: 173-182 pendahuluan menurut arsyad dalam sabana (2007) pembangunan daerah dalam perspektif ekonomi merupakan sebuah proses dikelolanya sumber daya ekonomi yang berada di suatu daerah oleh pemerintah setempat beserta dengan masyarakat membangun pola kerjasama untuk mencapai tujuan terciptanya lapangan kerja baru, meluasnya kesempatan kerja serta terangsangnya iklim ekonomi di wilayah tersebut. pemerintah melalui uu no. 32 tahun 2004 tentang “pemerintah daerah” dan uu no. 23 tahun 2004 tentang “perimbangan keuangan antara pemerintah pusat dan daerah” yang membahas tentang kebijakan pemerintah pusat dalam melimpahkan wewenang untuk mengatur urusan rumah tangga daerahnya sendiri kepada pemerintah daerah melalui perencanaan dan pengelolaan pembangunan daerah yang didasarkan pada kemampuan ataupun potensi yang ada serta permasalahan yang harus dihadapi di daerah tersebut. pelimpahan wewenang yang dilakukan oleh pemerintah pusat kepada daerah diharapkan dapat menghilangkan praktik sentralistik dimana pembangunan dan pertumbuhan ekonomi hanya terpusat di kota besar saja, yang pada satu sisi dirasa kurang menguntungkan daerah dan penduduk lokal. dalam rangka melakukan pemerataan pembangunan daerah di segala penjuru negeri, era otonomi daerah merupakan hal yang paling penting, karena dirasa dapat meningkatkan motivasi daerah untuk mau mengembangkan diri menjadi daerah yang maju dengan tingkat kesejahteraan yang meningkat dan dapat bersaing dengan daerah lain. selain itu, untuk pengaktualisasian pribadi daerah dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang tinggi yang dapat diwujudkan dengan pemanfaatan potensi local serta dilakukannya pemanfaatan kekuatan daerah dan peluang yang muncul untuk mengembangkan berbagai kegiatan-kegiatan perekonomian untuk mencapai kemakmuran rakyat dan keadilan sosial. berlakunya kebijakan pembangunan daerah dengan konsep kawasan andalan oleh pemerintah bertujuan untuk mempersempit jurang disparitas antar daerah yang kemudian disandarkan pada kekuatan lokal yang dimiliki. kebijakan kawasan andalan diterapkan dengan harapan dapat terwujudnya kesamarataan tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi serta keseimbangan pendapatan perkapita daerah, sehingga dapat memperkecil bahkan menutupi kesenjangan ekonomi yang ada antara perkembangan pulau jawa maupun luar jawa (kuncoro, 2002). menurut rencana tata ruang wilayah (rtrw) provinsi jateng 2003 dalam sabana (2007) mendefinisikan kawasan andalan merupakan kawasan yang ditetapkan dengan tujuan untuk dibudidayakan berdasarkan potensi lokal yang dimiliki yang diyakini dapat merangsang iklim ekonomi yang baik, yang dapat ditinjau dari peningkatan pertumbuhan ekonomi tidak hanya untuk kawasan itu sendiri namun juga bagi kawasan sekitarnya. konsep kawasan andalan menurut royat dalam kuncoro (2002) merupakan kawasan cepat tumbuh dan maju diantara daerah lainnya dalam satu provinsi, kawasan andalan juga diyakini memiliki sektor unggulan yang telah terspesialisasikan, yang dapat berperan sebagai penggerak perekonomian daerah serta memiliki kaitan dengan daerah di sekitarnya. terjadinya pertumbuhan ekonomi di kawasan andalan diyakini dapat memberi imbas positif tidak hanya untuk daerah tersebut, namun juga daerah sekitarnya dengan diberdayakannya sektor serta subsektor unggulan yang dapat menjadi mesin penggerak perekonomian daerah. penekanan pada pertumbuhan ekonomi sebagai arah kebijakan penetapan kawasan andalan dikarenakan pertumbuhan ekonomi merupakan strategi pengembangan kota magelang… (rica ayu nuraini, lilies setiartiti) 175 variabel ekonomi yang merupakan indikator inti dalam pembangunan. tingkat kinerja perekonomian wilayah dapat diperhatikan melalui besaran pdrb dan pertumbuhan pdrbnya, sementara tingkat kesejahteraan masyarakat di suatu wilayah dapat dilihat dari pdrb perkapita. berikut pada tabel 1 menunjukkan laju pertumbuhan pdrb dan pdrb perkapita kabupaten/kota di karesidenan kedu. untuk dapat memperjelas kondisi pertumbuhan pdrb kota magelang pada tahun 2010-2014 dibandingkan dengan pertumbuhan pdrb jawa tengah dijelaskan dalam gambar 1 tabel 1. pertumbuhan pdrb atas dasar harga konstan tahun 2010 karesidenan kedu periode 2010 – 2014 (dalam %) no. kabupaten/kota 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 rata-rata 1. 1 kabupaten purworejo 4,84 5,64 4,59 4,94 4,49 4,90 2. 2 kabupaten wonosobo 4,29 4,52 5,14 5,25 4,16 4,67 3. 3 kabupaten magelang 4,51 5,22 4,88 5,91 4,88 5,08 4. 4 kota magelang 6,12 6,11 5,37 6,04 4,90 5,71 5. 5 jawa tengah 5,84 5,30 5,34 5,11 5,28 5,37 sumber: bps kota magelang dan jawa tengah diolah sumber: bps provinsi jawa tengah dan kota magelang (data diolah) gambar 1. pertumbuhan pdrb kota magelang dan provinsi jawa tengah adhk 2010 periode 2010 – 2014 rata – rata laju pertumbuhan pdrb kota magelang (5,71) lebih besar dari laju pertumbuhan pdrb jawa tengah (5,37) antara tahun 2010 -2014, walaupun rata-rata laju pertumbuhan pdrb kota magelang lebih besar dari jawa tengah, namun jika diperhatikan menurut runtut tahun pertumbuhan pdrb kota magelang fluktuatif. pertumbuhan ekonomi kota magelang mengalami penurunan setelah tahun 2010, namun sampai dengan tahun 2013 laju pertumbuhan ekonomi kota magelang lebih besar dibandingkan dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi provinsi jawa tengah. pada tahun 2014 pertumbuhan ekonomi kota magelang justru mengalami penurunan yang cukup signifikan sehingga menempatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi kota magelang lebih kecil dari pertumbuhan ekonomi provinsi jawa tengah. berbeda hal nya dengan rata-rata pendapatan perkapita kota magelang lebih besar dari pendapatan perkapita 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 kota magelang 6.12 6.11 5.37 6.04 4.9 jawa tengah 5.84 5.3 5.34 5.11 5.28 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 laju pertumbuhan pdrb kota magelang dan jawa tengah 176 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 2, oktober 2017: 173-182 jawa tengah dalam kurun waktu 2010-2014. mengingat kota magelang merupakan pusat pertumbuhan di wilayah kerjasamanya sehingga dianggap dapat memiliki daya tarik investasi yang baik serta memiliki prospek ekonomi yang berkelanjutan. metode penelitian objek penelitian penelitian ini dilakukan di kota magelang yang merupakan salah satu kota yang ditetapkan menjadi kawasan andalan wilayah jawa tengah pada perda jawa tengah no. 6 tahun 2010 mengenai rencana tata ruang wilayah (rtrw) jawa tengah periode tahun 2009 – 2029. kota magelang merupakan daerah yang ditetapkan sebagai objek penelitian karena potensi yang dimiliki serta kemampuan daerah untuk menjadi kawasan andalan. jenis data data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data sekunder berupa time series. data sekunder adalah data-data pendukung yang didapat dari buku-buku, jurnal-jurnal, artikel, majalah, dan sebagainya yang memiliki relevansi dengan penelitian atau dengan mengambil dari sumber lain yang dipublikasikan oleh lembaga yang dianggap kompeten berupa data pdrb kota magelang dan provinsi jawa tengah dalam periode tahun 2010-2014. sumber data sumber data dalam penelitian ini adalah berbagai macam sumber yang diperoleh melalui data sekunder yang berasal dari bps kota magelang, bps provinsi jawa tengah, badan perencanaan pembangunan daerah dan sumber lain seperti internet dan studi kepustakaan. obyek penelitian ini adalah kota magelang dengan menggunakan data produk domestik regional bruto (pdrb) atas dasar harga konstan tahun 2010 dari tahun 2010-2014. data yang digunakan terbatas pada tujuh belas sektor yang ada dalam komponen pdrb dengan kemudian melakukan perbandingan terhadap pdrb di tingkat provinsi jawa tengah atas dasar harga konstan 2010 dari tahun 2010-2014. teknik pengumpulan data metode dokumentasi merupakan suatu teknik dalam memperoleh serta mengumpulkan data atau informasi mengenai berbagai hal yang memiliki kaitan dengan penelitian, dengan cara memeriksa kembali laporan-laporan tertulis baik berupa angka maupun keterangan. metode analisis data 1. analisis tipologi klassen analisis tipologi klassen ini dimanfaatkan untuk dapat mengetahui pola serta struktur pertumbuhan ekonomi dari masing-masing daerah. menurut tipologi daerah, daerah dibagi menjadi 4 klasifikasi, atau empat kuadran, yaitu: daerah cepat maju atau tumbuh cepat merupakan daerah dengan laju pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah serta pendapatan perkapita yang lebih besar dari pada rata-rata regional daerah maju tertekan merupakan daerah dengan pendapatan perkapita yang lebih besar dari pendapatan perkapita provinsi, namun memiliki tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi yang lebih kecil dari rata-rata pertumbuhan ekonomi di tingkat regional atau provinsi. daerah cepat berkembang merupakan daerah dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi lebih besar, namun pendapatan perkapita lebih kecil dari rata-rata pendapatan perkapita regional. daerah relatif tertinggal merupakan daerah dengan kedua indikator yaitu pertumbuhan ekonomi dan pendapatan perkapita lebih kecil dari rata-rata regional. strategi pengembangan kota magelang… (rica ayu nuraini, lilies setiartiti) 177 tabel 2. klasifikasi pertumbuhan ekonomi tipologi klassen y r yi>r yi<r ri>r daerah maju atau tumbuh cepat daerah cepat berkembang ri<r daerah maju tertekan daerah relatif tertinggal sumber: syafrizal, 1997 keterangan: ri : laju pertumbuhan pdrb daerah studi r : laju pertumbuhan pdrb regional yi : pendapatan perkapita daerah studi y : pendapatan perkapitan regional. 2. analisis location quotient (lq) analisis lq merupakan alat analisis yang berguna untuk mengidentifikasi basis ekonomi suatu wilayah terutama dari kriteria kontribusi. analisis ini dapat mengetahui besaran tingkat spesialisasi basis ekonomi atau unggulan di suatu daerah. lq = keterangan: lq: koefisien location quotient xi: output sektor i daerah studi (kota/kabupaten) xt : output total daerah studi (kota/kabupaten) yi: output sektor i daerah referensi (regional/nasional) yt: output total daerah referensi (regional/nasional) rumus diatas menghasilkan tiga kriteria perhitungan location quotient (lq) dalam perekonomian daerah yaitu: jika nilai lq>1, maka sektor yang bersangkutan di daerah studi lebih terspesialisasi dibandingkan dengan daerah referensi. artinya, sektor tersebut dalam perekonomian daerah di wilayah studi mempunyai keunggulan komparatif dan dapat dikategorikan sebagai sektor basis. jika nilai lq<1, maka sektor yang bersangkutan di daerah studi kurang terspesialisasi dibandingkan dengan daerah referensi. sektor tersebut dikategorikan sebagai sektor non-basis. jika nilai lq=1, maka sektor yang bersangkutan di daerah studi dan daerah referensi memiliki peningkatan yang sama. 3. analisis swot menurut perce dan robinson dalam muhammad ghufron (2008) analisis swot dapat digunakan untuk mengidentifikasi dan juga menyelaraskan indikator-indikator yang berasal dari internal maupun eksternal lingkungan secara sistematis, dan dapat berperan sebagai katalisator dalam proses pembuatan perencanaan pembangunan strategis. tabel 3. analysis swot internal eksternal strength (s) daftar kekuatan internal weakness (w) daftar kelemahan internal opportunities (o) daftar peluang eksternal strategis so gunakan kekuatan untuk memanfaatkan peluang strategi wo memanfaatkan peluang yang muncul untuk mengatasi kelemahan threats (t) daftar ancaman ekstenal strategis st gunakan kekuatan untuk menghindari ancaman strategi wt memperkecil kelemahan dan menghindari ancaman 178 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 2, oktober 2017: 173-182 hasil dan pembahasan analisis tipologi klassen adapun untuk mengetahui hasil dari klasifikasi tipologi klassen dapat dilihat dari ratarata laju pertumbuhan pdrb dan rata-rata pendapatan perkapita daerah kota magelang dan provinsi jawa tengah pada tabel 4. dari tabel 4. dapat dilihat bahwa kota magelang termasuk dalam klasifikasi daerah yang cepat tumbuh dan memiliki pendapatan per kapita yang cukup tinggi. tabel 4. laju pdrb dan perkapita kota magelang dan jawa tengah 2010-2015 kota magelang no tahun pertumbuhan (%) pendapatan perkapita (rp) keterangan 1 2010 6,12 3.392.388 daerah cepat tumbuh 2 2011 6,11 3.588.066 daerah cepat tumbuh 3 2012 5,37 3.723.022 daerah cepat tumbuh 4 2013 6,04 3.964.724 daerah cepat tumbuh 5 2014 4,90 4.143.936 daerah maju tertekan 6 2015 5,07 4.338.797 daerah maju tertekan rata-rata 5,60 3.858.488 daerah cepat tumbuh jawa tengah no tahun pertumbuhan (%) pendapatan perkapita (rp) 1 2010 5,84 1.924.563 2 2011 5,30 2.010.403 3 2012 5,34 2.077.965 4 2013 5,11 2.184.487 5 2014 5,28 2.282.016 6 2015 5,44 2.388.244 rata-rata 5,39 2.144.613 sumber: bps kota magelang diolah dari hasil perhitungan yang dapat dilihat dari tabel 4 menunjukkan bahwa keadaan perekonomian kota magelang bergerak fluktuatif dari tahun ke tahunnya. pada tahun 2010 magelang unggul daripada jawa tengah dengan laju pertumbuhan pdrb sebesar 6,12%, kemudian mengalami penurunan pada tahun 2011 sebesar 6,11%. tahun 2012 pertumbuhan pdrb magelang mengalami penurunan yang dapat dikatakan cukup signifikan dengan persentase sebesar 5,37%, namun pertumbuhan pdrb kota magelang tetap lebih besar dari pertumbuhan pdrb jawa tengah. tahun 2013 magelang tetap berada pada posisi melebihi jawa tengah dengan laju pertumbuhan 6,04% sedangkan jawa tengah sebesar 5,11%. keterpurukan pertumbuhan perekonomian kota magelang terjadi pada tahun 2014 dan berkelanjutan hingga tahun 2015 yang menempatkan laju pertumbuhan pdrb kota magelang lebih kecil dari jawa tengah yaitu sebesar 4,90% pada tahun 2014 dan 5,07% di tahun 2015. rata-rata laju pertumbuhan kota magelang dan jawa tengah terhitung pada tahun 2010-2015, kota magelang memiliki rata-rata sebesar 5,60% yang lebih unggul 0,21% dari jawa tengah yaitu 5,39%. perhitungan pendapatan perkapita kota magelang menunjukkan bahwa posisi kota magelang berada diatas jawa tengah, strategi pengembangan kota magelang… (rica ayu nuraini, lilies setiartiti) 179 dengan pendapatan perkapita rp 3.858.488 dimiliki oleh kota magelang sementara jawa tengah sebesar rp 2.114.613. analisis location quotient tabel 5. hasil analisis location quotient sektor location quotient rata-rata lq 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 pertanian, kehutanan dan perikanan 0.1457 0.1448 0.1432 0.1442 0.1479 0.1428 0.1448 pertambangan dan penggalian 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 industri pengolahan 0.4081 0.4228 0.4250 0.4313 0.4334 0.4364 0.4262 pengadaan listrik dan gas 2.9496 3.1169 3.2908 3.4019 3.3860 3.4135 3.2598 pengadaan air, pengelolaan sampah, limbah, dan daur ulang 2.0492 2.0514 2.0725 2.0788 2.0642 2.0711 2.0645 konstruksi 1.7667 1.7451 1.7559 1.7310 1.6935 1.6642 1.7261 perdagangan besar dan eceran; reparasi mobil dan sepeda motor 1.1166 1.1231 1.1237 1.1276 1.1104 1.1014 1.1171 transportasi dan pergudangan 2.3676 2.3500 2.3328 2.3515 2.3383 2.3197 2.3433 penyediaan akomodasi dan makan minum 1.9111 1.9214 1.8769 1.8799 1.8623 1.8526 1.8840 informasi dan komunikasi 1.4502 1.4688 1.4775 1.4898 1.5347 1.5159 1.4895 jasa keuangan dan asuransi 1.8040 1.8047 1.7925 1.8034 1.7716 1.7298 1.7844 real estate 2.0226 2.0356 2.0097 2.0200 1.9783 1.9495 2.0026 jasa perusahaan 1.0551 1.0472 1.0583 1.0100 1.0013 0.9859 1.0263 adminstrasi pemerintahan, pertahanan dan jaminan sosial wajib 4.1533 4.1443 4.1715 4.1721 4.1188 4.0745 4.1391 jasa pendidikan 1.6603 1.6991 1.7166 0.1842 1.7804 1.7747 1.4692 jasa kesehatan dan kegiatan sosial 3.4125 3.4344 3.4051 3.3318 3.2528 3.2355 3.3453 jasa lainnya 1.4129 1.4165 1.4000 1.4089 1.3641 1.3599 1.3937 sumber: bps kota magelang diolah berdasarkan hasil perhitungan lq pada tabel 5 diatas, dapat diketahui bahwa dari 17 total jumlah sektor yang ada kecuali sektor pertambangan, hanya ada dua sektor saja yang memiliki nilai lq<1 yaitu sektor pertanian, kehutanan dan perikanan serta sektor industri pengolahan dengan nilai rata-rata lq sebesar 0,1448 untuk sektor pertanian, kehutanan dan perikanan dan 0,4262 untuk sektor industri pengolahan. artinya, bahwa sektor pertanian, kehutanan dan perikanan serta sektor industri pengolahan bukan termasuk sektor basis dan dinilai kurang potensial untuk dapat dikembangkan sehingga dapat menggerakkan perekonomian kota magelang. kota magelang sebagai kota kecil yang berada di tengah kabupaten magelang tidak memiliki lahan pertanian, kehutanan dan perikanan yang cukup luas untuk dapat memberikan sumbangan yang besar terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. perhitungan lq yang dilakukan selama periode pengamatan menunjukkan terdapat beberapa sektor yang memiliki nilai lq>1, yaitu sektor pengadaan listrik dan gas, sektor pengadaan air, pengolahan sampah, limbah dan daur ulang, sektor konstruksi, sektor perdagangan besar dan eceran; reparasi mobil dan sepeda, sektor transportasi dan pergudangan, sektor penyediaan akomodasi dan makan/minum, sektor informasi dan komunikasi, sektor jasa keuangan dan asuransi, sektor real estate, sektor jasa perusahaan, sektor administrasi pemerintah,pertahanan dan jaminan sosial waib, sektor jasa pendidikan, sektor jasa 180 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 2, oktober 2017: 173-182 kesehatan dan kegiatan serta sektor jasa lainnya. sektor-sektor tersebut merupakan sektor basis yang juga merupakan sektor unggulan kota magelang yang ditunjukkan dengan lq>1. analisis swot hasil analisis swot dapat dilihat pada tabel 6. tabel 6. hasil analisis swot strength (s) 1. kota magelang termasuk dalam kategori daerah cepat tumbuh dan cepat maju 2. pendapatan perkapita tinggi 3. rata-rata pertumbuhan ekonomi tahun 201-2015 lebih besar dari jawa tengah 4. memiliki 14 sektor basis dengan nilai lq>1 5. daya saing tinggi weakness (w) 1. investasi yang belum maksimal 2. pertumbuhan sektor industri pengolahan yang rendah 3. promosi sektor unggulan dan industri kreatif yang belum maksimal opportunities (o) 1. pasar bebas mea 2. kemajuan teknologi informatika 3. kemajuan teknologi industri 4. kebijakan bebas visa strategi s-o 1. meningkatkan posisi ekonomi kota magelang untuk menghadapi mea. (s1, s2, s3, o1) 2. mengembangkan produk sektor basis dengan memanfaatkan kemajuan teknologi (s4, o2, o3) 3. meningkatkan pendapatan daerah dengan memanfaatkan kebijakan bebas visa (s3, o4) strategi w-o 1. memaksimalkan realisasi investasi untuk dapat berkompetisi di pasar bebas mea (w1, o1) 2. mengembangkan sektor industri pengolahan dengan kemajuan teknologi industri (w2, o3) 3. memaksimalkan promosi sektor unggulan dan industri pengolahan untuk meningkatkan eksistensi kota magelang di pasar bebas mea (w3, o1) threats (t) 1. persaingan antar wilayah 2. bencana alam 3. pasar bebas mea strategi s-t 1. menciptakan keadaan yang aman dan kondusif untuk meningkatkan perekonomian kota magelang agar dapat bertahan pada persaingan antar daerah dan pada pasar bebas mea (s1, s2, s3, s4, s5, t1, t2) strategi w-t 1. menciptakan iklim usaha yang baik dan kompetitif untuk menarik minat investor (w1, o1, o2) 2. mendorong pengembangan sektor industri pengolahan agar dapat bersaing (w2, o1) sumber: data diolah matriks hasil analisis swot 1 strategi strength-opportunities (s-o) strategi s-o adalah strategi yang didapat dengan menggunakan seluruh kekuatan internal yang dimiliki oleh kota magelang untuk mendapatkan keuntungan-keuntungan dengan memanfaatkan peluang yang ada. beberapa strategi s-o yang dihasilkan antara lain: a. meningkatkan posisi ekonomi kota magelang untuk menghadapi pasar bebas mea b. mengembangkan produk sektor basis dengan memanfaatkan kemajuan teknologi. kota magelang memiliki 14 sektor basis dengan nilai lq>1 yang terdiri dari sektor sekunder dan tersier sehingga perekonomian kota magelang dikategorikan cukup maju. c. meningkatkan pendapatan daerah dengan memanfaatkan kebijakan bebas visa 181 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 2, oktober 2017: 173-182 2. strategi weakness-opportunities (w-o) strategi w-o merupakan strategi yang didapatkan dengan memperbaiki setiap kelemahan internal kota magelang yang berpotensi menghalangi datanganya keuntungankeuntungan dari peluang yang ada. strategi w-o yang dihasilkan antara lain: a. memaksimalkan realisasi investasi untuk dapat berkompetisi pada pasar bebas mea. b. memanfaatkan kemajuan teknologi industri untuk mengembangkan sektor industri pengolahan c. memaksimalkan promosi sektor unggulan dan produk industri kreatif untuk meningkatkan eksistensi kota magelang di pasar bebas mea 3. strategi strength-threat (s-t) strategi s-t merupakan strategi yang didapatkan dengan mengoptimalkan seluruh unsur kekuatan internal yang dimiliki kota magelang untuk menghadapi maupun mencegah ancaman yang datang sebaik mungkin. adapun strategi s-t antara lain: a. menciptakan keadaan kondusif yang meningkatkan perekonomian kota magelang agar dapat bertahan pada persaingan antar daerah dan pada pasar bebas mea. 4. strategi weakness-threat (w-t) strategi w-t merupakan strategi yang diperoleh dengan mengatasi semua unsur kelemahan internal kota magelang yang berpotensi menyebabkan ancaman yang ada menjadi nyata atau bahkan menimbulkan ancaman baru. strategi w-t yang dihasilkan antara lain: a. menciptakan iklim usaha yang baik dan kompetitif untuk menarik minat investor. b. mendorong pengembangan sektor industri pengolahan agar dapat bersaing dengan daerah lain. simpulan berdasarkan hasil analisis yang digunakan maka dapat disimpulkan: 1) hasil analisis tipologi klassen yang dilakukan menunjukkan bahwa rata-rata laju pertumbuhan pdrb sebesar 5,60 persen lebih besar dibandingkan rata-rata laju pertumbuhan pdrb jawa tengah sebesar 5,39 persen, selain itu rata-rata pendapatan perkapita kota magelang sebesar rp3.858.488, sementara jawa tengah sebesar rp2.144.613, sehingga pendapatan perkapita kota magelang lebih unggul dibandingkan jawa tengah maka kota magelang termasuk dalam kategori daerah maju dan cepat tumbuh yang secara langsung menandakan bahwa kota magelang merupakan kawasan andalan di jawa tengah dan juga sebagai pusat pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah. 2) hasil analisis location quotient (lq) yang telah dilakukan menunjukkan bahwa terdapat 14 sektor dengan nilai lq>1, yaitu sektor pengadaan listrik dan gas, sektor pengadaan air, pengolahan sampah, limbah dan daur ulang, sektor konstruksi, sektor perdagangan besar dan eceran; reparasi mobil dan sepeda motor, sektor transportasi dan pergudangan, sektor penyediaan akomodasi dan makan minum, sektor informasi dan komunikasi, sektor jasa keuangan dan asuransi, sektor real estate, sektor jasa perusahaan, sektor administrasi pemerintahan, pertahanan dan jaminan sosial wajib, sektor jasa pendidikan, sektor jasa kesehatan dan kegiatan sosial dan sektor jasa lainnya. sektor-sektor tersebut merupakan sektor basis kota magelang yang dinilai potensial untuk dikembangkan agar dapat meningkatkan penerimaan daerah. adapun sektor dengan nilai lq<1 selain sektor pertambangan dan penggalian adalah sektor pertanian, kehutanan dan perikanan 182 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 2, oktober 2017: 173-182 serta sektor industri pengolahan yang dinilai kurang potensial untuk dikembangkan sehingga dapat menggerakkan perekonomian kota magelang. 3) analisis swot yang telah dilakukan menghasilkan strategi pengembangan kawasan andalan yaitu meningkatkan posisi ekonomi kota magelang untuk dapat bersaing di pasar bebas mea, mengembangkan produk sektor basis dengan memanfaatkan kemajuan teknologi serta memaksimalkan promosi produk sektor basis tersebut, memaksimalkan realisasi investasi dan juga menciptakan iklim usaha kondusif. daftar pustaka arsyad lincolin, 1999. ekonomi pembangunan, edisi 4, cetakan pertama, stie ykpn, yogyakarta. arsyad lincolin, 2002. pengntar perencanaan pembangunan ekonomi daerah, edisi kedua, bpep, yogyakarta. bappeda, 2014. rencana kerja pembangunan daerah kota magelang tahun 2015, bapedda kota magelang. bps, 2011. kota magelang dalam angka 2010, bps kota magelang. bps, 2012. kota magelang dalam angka 2011, bps kota magelang. bps, 2013. kota magelang dalam angka 2012, bps kota magelang. bps, 2014. kota magelang dalam angka 2013, bps kota magelang. bps, 2015. kota magelang dalam angka 2014, bps kota magelang. bps, 2016. kota magelang dalam angka 2015, bps kota magelang. bps, 2011. jawa tengah dalam angka 2010, bps jawa tengah. bps, 2012. jawa tengah dalam angka 2011, bps jawa tengah. bps, 2013. jawa tengah dalam angka 2012, bps jawa tengah. bps, 2014. jawa tengah dalam angka 2013, bps jawa tengah. bps, 2015. jawa tengah dalam angka 2014, bps jawa tengah. bps, 2016. jawa tengah dalam angka 2015, bps jawa tengah. bps, 2015. produk domestik regional bruto kota magelang menurut lapangan usaha 2014, bps kota magelang. bps, 2016. produk domestik regional bruto jawa tengah menurut lapangan usaha 20112015, bps jawa tengah. bps, 2016. produk domestik regional bruto kota magelang menurut lapangan usaha 20112015, bps kota magelang. ghufron m, 2008. “analisis pembangunan wilayah berbasis sektor unggulan kabupaten lamongan propinsi jawa timur”, skripsi, institut pertanian bogor, bogor. kuncoro m dan aswandi h, 2002. “evaluasi penetapan kawasan andalan studi empiris di kalimantan selatan 1993-1999”, jurnal ekonomi dan bisnis. vol. 17, no. 1, 27-45. kuncoro mudrajad, 2000. ekonomi pembangunan, teori, masalah dan kebijakan, upp amp ykpn, yogyakarta. robinson tarigan, 2004. ekonomi regional teori dan aplikasi, bumi aksara, jakarta. sabana choliq, 2007. “analisis pengembangan kota pekalongan sebagai salah satu kawasan andalan di jawa tengah”, tesis, universitas diponegoro, semarang. syafrizal, 1997. pertumbuhan ekonomi dan ketimpangan regional wilayah indonesia bagian barat, prisma, jakarta. image (2).jpg image (3).jpg image (4).jpg image (5).jpg image (6).jpg image (7).jpg image (8).jpg image (9).jpg image (10).jpg jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 2, oktober 2018, hlm. 157-166 doi: 10.18196/jesp.19.2.5007 the determinant of inflation in indonesia: partial adjustment model approach yosefina don sama lelo, rini dwi astuti, sri suharsih universitas pembangunan nasional veteran yogyakarta jl. swk 104, condongcatur, depok, sleman, daerah istimewa yogyakarta 55283 correspondence e-mail: rinidwiastuti@upnyk.ac.id received: august 2018; accepted: october 2018 abstract: inflation is one of the economic issues that always being targeted by the government, particularly central bank because it could adversely influence the economy. for the past view years, the inflation targeting framework as the part of monetary policy has been successfully implemented where the interest rate is the operational target. in view of past investigations, there are fundamental factors that affect inflation, for example, interest rate, exchange rate, and money supply. this study aims to evaluate the impact of those factors on inflation both in the short and long run. the estimation uses monthly data from january 2013 to november 2017, which was obtained from indonesian banking statistics. the use of partial adjustment model illustrates how interest rates, exchange rate, and money supply negatively and significantly affect inflation on both short and long run. this regression result is consistent with the finding of previous studies which strengthen the evidence that the government should maintain the inflation rate through those variables. keywords: inflation, monetary policy, pam jel classification: e31, e52, c22 introduction inflation is an economic problem which could affect the negative impact on a country economic. thus, inflation is often target in government policy. high inflation will affect negatively the economy because it leads to such unrest condition, high unemployment, and slow economic growth. all in all, those will result in low economic growth. (suparmoko, 1992). theoretically, inflation is a condition in which the increasing price of goods and services continuously in a certain period. if the process doesn’t occur at the same time but with the same percentage, it doesn’t call as inflation (nopirin, 1987). monetary authority published the monetary policy to anticipate the high inflation rate or to decide the macro policy. monetary policy can be done by interest rate, open market policy, cash ratio, or foreign exchange policy (mizaroh, 2014). table 1. inflation rate in indonesia from 2008-2016 year inflation target realization 2013 4.5% 8.38% 2014 4.5% 8.36% 2015 4.0% 3.35% 2016 4.0% 3.02% 2017 4.0% 3.30% source: bureau labour of statistics, 2013 based on table 1, the growth of the inflation rate can be seen to reach the highest rate in 2013 with 8,38%, much below the government target at 4.5%. the main reason was that the fuel price which increased to rp6.500/litre for premium and rp5.500/litre for solar. it affects the inflation for 1,17%. the increasing price of subsidized fuel affects to the other prices such as transportation within cities. the transportation gives 1,75%, red onion 0,38%, electricity 0,38%, red pepper 1,31%, fish 0,3%, rice 0,2%, cigarettes 0,19%, airfare 0,19%, workers 0,16%, home assistant wage 0,1% (lpi, 2014). mailto:rinidwiastuti@upnyk.ac.id 158 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan vol. 19, no. 2, oktober 2018: 157-166 in 2014, the inflation rate is 8,38%. this was because of the pressure of the price from the previous year. in 2015 onward the inflation rate can be handled below the government target. central bank of indonesia as the monetary authority that holds the monetary policy to handle the national economy is the one that decides money flow with interest rate. interest rate affects the individual decision on deciding either to spend or to save money in deposit (suhaedi, 2000). externally, when rupiah appreciates toward usd can be caused by the government external debt or private external debt. in result, the exported goods become much cheaper. the cheap price effects the increasing volume of goods. it is related to the demand law when the price is low, the demand will increase. the increasing output can reduce the inflation rate and decrease the price. hendrawan (2016) and perlambang (2012) state that exchange rate shows the balance between supply and demand toward foreign exchange rate. rupiah appreciation reflects the society demand on rupiah and the increasing demand on forex as an international currency. rupiah depreciation makes imported goods become much more expensive and exported goods become much cheaper. this condition needs to look at because it leads to inflation. generally, inflation gives some social price bear by society. first, the income distribution will get affected. a low class society with fixed income will bear the condition with their low purchasing power. on the other hand, upper-middle-class society will protect their saving and deposit so their purchasing power still stays the same. both inflations give a negative impact on the economy. high inflation effects the instability of economic, high unemployment, slow economic growth on the country. on this research, we would explain the 3-month-deposit effect on the conventional bank, exchange rate, and money supply toward inflation in indonesia from january 2013-november 2017. research method type and data source the type of data used in this research is secondary monthly data period january 2013 – november 2017, including: 1. inflation period january 2013 – november 2017 taken from indonesia bureau of statistics on percentage. 2. interest rate represented by 3-month-deposit in conventional bank period january 2013 – november 2017 from statistic of indonesian banking on percentage. 3. rupiah exchange rate on usd from january 2013 – november 2017 in rupiah. 4. money supply from january 2013 – november 2017 taken from indonesian financial statistic (seki). statistical test significance test the hypothesis that will be tested in this research is related to the significance of independent variables (deposit interest rate, exchange rate, and money supply) toward the dependent variable (inflation) partially or simultaneously. 1. f test f test aims to know whether all independent variables tested significantly affected the dependent variable. the test is done through anova test with 95% degree, with the requirements: a. if f test < f table, ho is not rejected b. if f test >>f table, ho is rejected 2. t test partial hypothesis test aims to know the affect and significance of each independent variable to the dependent variable. this done through t-test with 95% degree, with the requirement: a. h0 : if p-value > 0,05, ho is not rejected b. h0 : if p-value <0,05, ho is rejected the determinant of inflation: … (yosefina don s. lelo, rini dwi astuti, sri suharsih) 159 adjusted r square the closer it gets to 0, the less impact of independent variables might give to the dependent variable. however, if it closer to 1, the higher impact of independent variables might give to the dependent variable. autocorrelation test the test aims whether there is a disturbing correlation on the multiple linear regressions model on t period with previous t period. if there is a problem, we called it autocorrelation. we can go through durbin watson (dw test). heteroskedasticity test this classic test aims to see whether on regression model exist the inconsistence variances from one residue to the other. if there is a problem then we call it as heteroskedasticity. a good model should never be having heteroskedasticity. we can see from scatterplot from the expected value of y with residue value where the predictions are scattered. another way is to do a part test by comparing t-test and t table. if t-test < t-table then there will be no heteroskedasticity. multicollinearity test this aims to know whether there is a correlation among independent variables. a good model should never correlate among each other (ghozali, 2009). we can go through a variance factor (vif) test. the prevalent cut off value is used to show multicollinearity is tolerance value with ≤ 0.10 or the same with vif ≥ 10 (ghozali, 2009) analysis method in analyzing interest rate, exchange rate, and money supply toward inflation in indonesia, we will use partial adjustment model estimation. it is one of the simple models used to estimate the relationship between the independent and dependent variable with lag (gujarati, 1995). this model assumes the expected dependent variable in t period (yt*) depends on actual independent variables. written as below: inf = f (sb, nt, jub) ……………… 3.1 the short-term pam estimation: inft = b0 + b1sbt + b2ntt + b3jubt + b4yt-1 + e…..……...…3.2 the long-term pam estimation: constant = b0/ (1-b4) coefficient sb = b1/ (1-b4) coefficient nt = b2/ (1-b4) coefficient jub = b3/ (1-b4) notes: inf = inflation (%) sb = interest rate (%) nt = rupiah exchange rate (on natural log) jub = money supply m1 (on natural log) e = disturbance variable result and discussion interest rate fluctuation in indonesia can be caused by a number of factors, thus it is hard to control inflation. the government should be aware of the initial factors that can form inflation. in indonesia, inflation is not only a short-term inflation, as said on keynes’s theory, but also it is a long-term condition (baasir, 2003). inflation rate can be reduced or even can be prevented. to reach the inflation rate below government target, all parties need to work all together either from the central bank or the private sector. monetary policy is one of the policies can be done by the government. it aims to balance the internal balance and external balance. internal balance can be shown by high economic growth, price stability, and equality development. while external balance can be shown by the balance of payment, high employment rate, and balance of international payment (insukindro, 1993). central bank of indonesia using monetary policy to control rupiah value as the repre160 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan vol. 19, no. 2, oktober 2018: 157-166 sentative of the stable inflation rate. the main instrument used is bi rate to influence the economic activities with the goal of the inflation rate. to reach one certain inflation rate, the interest rate policy should go through the long transmission. based on graphic 1, we can see that target inflation can be reached only 3 times. the inflation trend fluctuates because several inflation rates show bad economic activity. the inflation realization can be seen in figure 1. figure 1. inflation target and realization source: indonesia banking statistics 2013-2017 the result from partial adjustment model can be seen at table 2. table 2. the result of regression analysis variabel coefficient t-statistic probabilities c 4.956845 2.302072 0.0253 sb -0.214892 -2.398663 0.0200 nt -0.801375 -2.547670 0.0138 jub -0.712997 -2.580804 0.0127 y(t-1) 0.969124 19.01613 0.0000 adjusted-squared 0.869362 f-statistic 95.82999 probabilities (f-statistic) 0.000000 source: attachment 1 based on table 2, the short term pam model equation is at the below: y= 4.95680.2148sb – 0.8013nt – 0.7129jub + 0.9691y(t-1) thus, the long term equation is : y= 16.475 – 6.9614sb – 25.9320nt – 23.0711jub statistic test t-test and f-test t-test aims to know whether independent variables partially has significant impat to dependent variable. t-test by using α=5%, df=n-k= 59-4 = 55 is 1.671. if t-statistic < t-table ho is accepted, and ig t-statistic > t-table ho is rejected. f-test aims to know whether generally the model can be trusted with certain degree. f-test is used to simultaneously know the affect of interest rate, exchange rate and money supply on inflation. because f-test is (95.82999)>f-table (2.76) and significancy value 0.000000<0.05, thus ho is rejected and ha is accepted, so all variables are affected inflation. test on adjusted r2 coefficient r2 = 0.869362 or 86% means the fluctuation on inflation in indonesia can be desctibed by interest rate, exchange rate, and money supply. the rest of 14% can be described by other factors not in the model. classical assumption test classical assumption test aims to know the problem of autocorrelation, heterokedasticity or multicollonearity in the model. because if the model can’t pass the test, f-test and t-test is invalid and the final result is rejected. normality test the test is done to know the residu from the estimation is normally distributed. based on regression result, the jarque_bere probability value is 0.10 > probabilitas statistik (α = 5%), so it is normally distributed table 3. normality test jarque_bere value 4.485210 probability 0.106182 source: attachment 2 the determinant of inflation: … (yosefina don s. lelo, rini dwi astuti, sri suharsih) 161 autocorrelation test autocorrelation test is the comparison between the value of obs*r-squared with the value of chi square table. if obs*r-squared < value of chi square table, there is no autocorrelation existed and vice versa. according to the estimation result, obs*r-squared 5.192133 < value of chi square table 7.815 so there is no autocorrelation. the result is on the table 4. table 4. langrange multiplier test (lm) obs*r-squared 5.192133 probability 0.0746 source: attachment 3 heteroskedastisity test table 5 shows the value of obs*r-squared and white heteroskedasticity is 0.782230 and chi square table df (k-1 = 4-1=3) with α=5% os 7.815. if obs*r-squared is 0.884633 < value of chi square tabel 7,815 so there is no heteroskedasticity exist on the model. see the result on table 5. table 5. white heteroskedasticity test obs*r-squared 0.884633 probability 0.9268 source : attachment 4 linearity test linearity test can be done to detect the empirical model whether a new variable applies is relevant with the empirical model. based on the result ftest is 2.07 < value of ftable is 2.76. so the empirical model is a linear function. f-table = (α= 0.05 : k-1; n k) = (α= 0.05 : 4-1; 59 4) = (α= 0.05 : 3; 55) (2.76). tabel 6. linearity test f-statistik 2.073192 probability 0.1363 source : attachment 5 multicollinearity test the test result is on the below: table 7. multicollinearity test r2 inf 0,8785 r12 sb 0,0663 r22 nt 0,0616 r32 jub 0,0183 source: attachment 6 table 8 shows r-squared from the pam estimation> r-squared value of interest rate, exchange rate and money supply so there is no multicollinearity exists. based on the hypothesis test, we can conclude that interest rate has negative affect on inflation. the regression coefficient in short term is 0.21. when interest rate increases by 1 %, inflation decreases by 0.21% in short term. in long term, regression coefficient is -6.95%. when interest increases by 1%, inflation decreases by 6.95%. this is linked with the hypothesis because during january 2013 – november 2017, the interest rate is one of the main reasons why people save or deposit their money in bank. this is in tune with the result from the previous research by rahmawati (2011). exchange rate has negative affect on inflation. the regression coefficient is -0.80. it means, if exchange rate increases by 1%, inflation will decrease to 0.80% in short term. while in long term, the regression coefficient is -25.93%. in other words, when exchange rate increases by 1%, the inflation rate will decrease by 25.93%. on january 2013-november 2017, when rupiah depreciates in usd, so the imported goods become much more expensive and exported goods become much cheaper. it is in the contrary with the research from nugroho, et.al (2012) states that exchange rate does not influence on inflation. 162 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan vol. 19, no. 2, oktober 2018: 157-166 this matches with the research from fadel (2013) proves that exchange rate influence inflation rate positively during 1981–2011. the depreciation of rupiah makes inflation rate higher, and vice versa. this implicates the theory from parity purchasing power when domestic currency is related positively with the domestic inflation and foreign currency. so, the government should proactively make strategic decision to strengthen its currency to reduce inflation. money supply has negative relationship on inflation. the regression coefficient in short term is -0.71% .this shows when money supply increases by 1%, inflation will decrease by 0.71%. in long term, however, the regression coefficient is -23.07%. this is not what the hypothesis stated in first place. this can be caused money supply that hold by society is not only for consumptive buying but also for productive buying. the increasing money supply leads the real sector to produce goods and services exceeding the demand so can reduce the price. this is the same with the research by nugroho, et al. (2012) where high money supply will not sufficient enough to influence inflation. conclusion based on the analysis from the previous chapters, the effect of interest rate, exchange rate and money supply in indonesia from 2013 – 2017 can be described below : 1. interest rate in short and long term has negative affect on inflation. the high interest rate will be responded by the society by saving or depositing their money in bank. 2. exchange rate in short and long term has negative affect on inflation. this is because the exchange rate depreciation cause high production cost. 3. money supply in short and long term has negative affect on inflation. this is because people tend to buy on productive goods. references baasir, f. (2003). pembangunan dan crisis. jakarta: pustaka harapan. badan pusat statistik indonesia. data inflasi tahun 2008-2017. (online) website: bps.co.id. bank indonesia. laporan bulanan 2008-2017. (online) website: www.bi.go.id. fadel. 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(2017). statistik perbankan indonesia. volume 16 nomor 01 desember 2017. insukindro. (1993). ekonomi uang dan bank. yogyakarta : bpfe. mizaroh. (2014). pengaruh pengeluaran pemerintah dan jumlah uang beredar https://rizalhendrawankd.wordpress.com/2016/11/18/01/ https://rizalhendrawankd.wordpress.com/2016/11/18/01/ https://rizalhendrawankd.wordpress.com/2016/11/18/01/ the determinant of inflation: … (yosefina don s. lelo, rini dwi astuti, sri suharsih) 163 terhadap inflasi. (online) wordpress ekonomi pembangunan. http://mizaroh.wordpress.com/ekono mi-pembangunan/97-2014. nopirin. (1987). ekonomi moneter. 4th ed. yogyakarta: bpfe. nugroho, p.w.b., and maruto, u. (2012). analisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi inflasi di indonesia periode 2000–2011 jurnal of accounting, universitas diponegoro, 1(1). perlambang, h. (2012). analisis pengaruh jumlah uang beredar, suku bunga sbi, nilai tukar terhadap tingkat inflasi. media ekonomi, 19 (2) rahmawati. (2011). pengaruh jumlah uang beredar, pengeluaran pemerintah, dan suku bunga terhadap tingkat inflasi di nanggroe aceh darussalam. jurnal aplikasi manajemen. 9(1). suhaedi, et al. (2000). suku bunga sebagai salah satu indikator ekspetasi inflasi. buletin ekonomi moneter dan perbankan, march 2000. suparmoko. (1992). ekonomi pembangunan. 5th ed. yogyakarta: bpfe ugm. attachment attachment 1 partial adjustment model (pam) dependent variable: inf method: least squares date: 18/03/18 time: 12:17 sample (adjusted): 2013m02 2017m11 included observations: 58 after adjustments variable coefficient std. error t-statistic prob. c 4.956845 2.153210 2.302072 0.0253 sb -0.214892 0.089588 -2.398663 0.0200 nt -0.801375 0.314552 -2.547670 0.0138 jub -0.712997 0.276269 -2.580804 0.0127 inf(-1) 0.969124 0.050963 19.01613 0.0000 r-squared 0.878530 mean dependent var 5.464138 adjusted r-squared 0.869362 s.d. dependent var 1.851307 s.e. of regression 0.669134 akaike info criterion 2.116599 sum squared resid 23.73026 schwarz criterion 2.294223 log likelihood -56.38136 hannan-quinn criter. 2.185787 f-statistic 95.82999 durbin-watson stat 1.456726 prob(f-statistic) 0.000000 attachment 2 normality test 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 series: residuals sample 2013m01 2017m11 observations 59 mean -2.52e-15 median -0.648934 maximum 3.537607 minimum -2.631770 std. dev. 1.793471 skewness 0.415367 kurtosis 1.934931 jarque-bera 4.485210 probability 0.106182 164 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan vol. 19, no. 2, oktober 2018: 157-166 attachment 3 autocorrelation test breusch-godfrey serial correlation lm test: f-statistic 2.507190 prob. f(2,51) 0.0915 obs*r-squared 5.192133 prob. chi-square(2) 0.0746 test equation: dependent variable: resid method: least squares date: 18/03/18 time: 12:20 sample: 2013m02 2017m11 included observations: 58 presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero. variable coefficient std. error t-statistic prob. c 0.914678 2.190552 0.417556 0.6780 sb 0.015121 0.087624 0.172571 0.8637 nt 0.058795 0.307102 0.191451 0.8489 jub -0.100064 0.279145 -0.358467 0.7215 inf(-1) -0.036262 0.057155 -0.634444 0.5286 resid(-1) 0.329759 0.147626 2.233745 0.0299 resid(-2) -0.060107 0.150858 -0.398432 0.6920 r-squared 0.089520 mean dependent var -7.12e-16 adjusted r-squared -0.017596 s.d. dependent var 0.645229 s.e. of regression 0.650881 akaike info criterion 2.091781 sum squared resid 21.60593 schwarz criterion 2.340456 log likelihood -53.66166 hannan-quinn criter. 2.188645 f-statistic 0.835730 durbin-watson stat 2.011340 prob(f-statistic) 0.548096 attachment 4 heteroskedasticity test heteroskedasticity test: white f-statistic 0.205223 prob. f(4,53) 0.9344 obs*r-squared 0.884633 prob. chi-square(4) 0.9268 scaled explained ss 2.052931 prob. chi-square(4) 0.7260 test equation: dependent variable: resid^2 method: least squares date: 18/03/18 time: 12:22 sample: 2013m02 2017m11 included observations: 58 variable coefficient std. error t-statistic prob. c 1.614740 1.618741 0.997528 0.3230 sb^2 0.001529 0.008276 0.184748 0.8541 nt^2 -0.026698 0.146754 -0.181923 0.8563 jub^2 -0.022800 0.027366 -0.833149 0.4085 inf(-1)^2 -0.001028 0.006674 -0.154065 0.8781 r-squared 0.015252 mean dependent var 0.409142 adjusted r-squared -0.059068 s.d. dependent var 0.973024 s.e. of regression 1.001350 akaike info criterion 2.922837 sum squared resid 53.14315 schwarz criterion 3.100461 log likelihood -79.76228 hannan-quinn criter. 2.992025 f-statistic 0.205223 durbin-watson stat 1.596788 prob(f-statistic) 0.934408 the determinant of inflation: … (yosefina don s. lelo, rini dwi astuti, sri suharsih) 165 attachment 5 linearity test ramsey reset test: f-statistic 2.073192 prob. f(2,51) 0.1363 log likelihood ratio 4.533602 prob. chi-square(2) 0.1036 test equation: dependent variable: inf method: least squares date: 25/05/18 time: 11:46 sample: 2013m02 2017m11 included observations: 58 variable coefficient std. error t-statistic prob. c -4.036025 6.791992 -0.594233 0.5550 sb 0.361528 0.456854 0.791342 0.4324 nt 1.666435 1.869836 0.891220 0.3770 jub 1.404019 1.586489 0.884985 0.3803 inf(-1) -2.008959 2.160715 -0.929766 0.3569 fitted^2 0.590539 0.390656 1.511662 0.1368 fitted^3 -0.035530 0.021838 -1.626982 0.1099 r-squared 0.887663 mean dependent var 5.464138 adjusted r-squared 0.874447 s.d. dependent var 1.851307 s.e. of regression 0.655983 akaike info criterion 2.107399 sum squared resid 21.94601 schwarz criterion 2.356073 log likelihood -54.11456 hannan-quinn criter. 2.204262 f-statistic 67.16500 durbin-watson stat 1.272383 prob(f-statistic) 0.000000 attachment 6 multicolleniarity test multicolleniarity test sb dependent variable: sb method: least squares date: 18/03/18 time: 12:24 sample (adjusted): 2013m02 2017m11 included observations: 58 after adjustments variable coefficient std. error t-statistic prob. c 7.185508 3.121091 2.302243 0.0252 nt -0.406991 0.474577 -0.857586 0.3949 jub -0.071178 0.419535 -0.169658 0.8659 inf(-1) 0.140837 0.075002 1.877771 0.0658 r-squared 0.066378 mean dependent var 8.472931 adjusted r-squared 0.014510 s.d. dependent var 1.023856 s.e. of regression 1.016401 akaike info criterion 2.936884 sum squared resid 55.78579 schwarz criterion 3.078984 log likelihood -81.16964 hannan-quinn criter. 2.992235 f-statistic 1.279749 durbin-watson stat 0.268492 prob(f-statistic) 0.290611 166 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan vol. 19, no. 2, oktober 2018: 157-166 multicolleniarity test nt dependent variable: nt method: least squares date: 18/03/18 time: 12:25 sample (adjusted): 2013m02 2017m11 included observations: 58 after adjustments variable coefficient std. error t-statistic prob. c -1.717013 0.901750 -1.904091 0.0622 sb -0.033014 0.038497 -0.857586 0.3949 jub -0.096614 0.118795 -0.813281 0.4196 inf(-1) 0.033725 0.021565 1.563868 0.1237 r-squared 0.061676 mean dependent var -2.486724 adjusted r-squared 0.009547 s.d. dependent var 0.290875 s.e. of regression 0.289483 akaike info criterion 0.425034 sum squared resid 4.525233 schwarz criterion 0.567134 log likelihood -8.325992 hannan-quinn criter. 0.480385 f-statistic 1.183143 durbin-watson stat 1.790620 prob(f-statistic) 0.324796 multicolleniarity test money supply dependent variable: jub method: least squares date: 18/03/18 time: 12:26 sample (adjusted): 2013m02 2017m11 included observations: 58 after adjustments variable coefficient std. error t-statistic prob. c 6.788260 0.521112 13.02648 0.0000 sb -0.007485 0.044117 -0.169658 0.8659 nt -0.125245 0.154000 -0.813281 0.4196 inf(-1) -0.009067 0.025073 -0.361608 0.7191 r-squared 0.018316 mean dependent var 6.986552 adjusted r-squared -0.036222 s.d. dependent var 0.323785 s.e. of regression 0.329597 akaike info criterion 0.684583 sum squared resid 5.866262 schwarz criterion 0.826682 log likelihood -15.85290 hannan-quinn criter. 0.739933 f-statistic 0.335831 durbin-watson stat 2.076906 prob(f-statistic) 0.799469 microsoft word 01-sri suharsih jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 13, nomor 1, april 2012, hlm.1-11   daya saing produk ekspor di era perdagangan bebas sri suharsih dan asih sriwinarti fakultas ekonomi universitas pembangunan nasional “veteran” yogyakarta jalan swk 104 (lingkar utara) condongcatur depok sleman yogyakarta, 55283 telp. +62 274 486733 e-mail: asiheko.yahoo.com abstract: efforts to improve the competitiveness of export products industry is one of the challenges faced by the province of yogyakarta in the era of trade liberalization. therefore this study aims to determine the potential and competitiveness of export products yogyakarta province. by using the analysis location quotient (lq), yogyakarta province has six subbase in the industrial sector of food beverages and tobacco industry, textile industry, leather goods and footwear, manufacture of wood and other products of wood, paper and printing industry, manufacture of cement and non-metal mineral goods and other goods industry. based on shift share analysis, industry sectors that have the largest share of growth in the diy pdrb is the food industry sub-sectors, textiles and leather goods, and craft industries. while it is based on the analysis comparative revealed advantage (rca) and the specialization index, known to export products that have good prospects for the future and is highly competitive tanning and dressing of leather, wood and products of wood and woven goods, and textile and textile goods. keywords: daya saing ekspor, perdagangan bebas, shift share, location quotient abstrak: upaya peningkatan daya saing industri produk ekspor merupakan salah satu tan¬tangan yang harus dihadapi oleh provinsi yogyakarta dalam era liberalisasi perdagangan. penelitian ini bertujuan mengetahui potensi dan daya saing produk ekspor provinsi yogyakarta. dengan menggunakan analisis location quotient (lq) provinsi yogyakarta mempunyai enam subsektor basis pada sektor industri yaitu industri makanan minuman dan tembakau, industri tekstil, barang dari kulit dan alas kaki, industri kayu dan barang dari kayu lainnya, industri kertas dan barang cetakan, industri semen dan barang galian bukan logam, serta industri barang lainnya. berdasarkan analisis shift share, sektor industri yang mempunyai pangsa terbesar bagi pertumbuhan pdrb di yogyakarta adalah subsektor industri makanan, tekstil dan barang dari kulit, serta industri kerajinan. sementara itu berdasarkan analisis revealed comparatif advantage (rca) dan indeks spesialisasi, diketahui produk ekspor yang mempunyai prospek baik di masa datang dan berdaya saing tinggi adalah kulit dan barang dari kulit, kayu, barang dari kayu dan barang anyaman, serta tekstil dan barang dari tekstil. kata kunci: daya saing ekspor, perdagangan bebas, shift share, location quotient pendahuluan provinsi daerah istimewa yogyakarta (diy) merupakan salah satu provinsi yang sedang giat-giatnya melaksanakan pembangunan. banyak tantangan yang dihadapi dalam proses pembangunan tersebut di antaranya adalah adanya liberalisasi perdagangan atau pasar bebas yang berlangsung sangat cepat dan meluas. dalam kaitannya dengan liberalisasi perdagangan, provinsi diy menghadapi dua tantangan yaitu pertama, upaya peningkatan daya saing industri produk ekspor melalui peningkatan efisiensi dan pembangunan keunggulan kompetitif yang pada gilirannya akan dapat memperkokoh pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah. kedua, pesatnya perkembangan teknologi di bidang industri perdagangan telah jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 13, nomor 1, april 2012: 1-11 2 mengubah pandangan konsumen sebagai pengguna produk akhir industri yang saat ini cenderung selektif dalam memilih produk, yaitu produk yang berkualitas dan aman dikonsumsi atau digunakan. di samping itu, tantangan lain yang juga harus dihadapi adalah diberlakukannya berbagai standar nasional dan internasional seperti iso 9000, iso 14000, ecolabelling, dan haki yang cenderung menyebabkan pasar menjadi resisten dan protektif, serta masih adanya iklim usaha yang kurang kondusif. dalam rangka menghadapi tantangan-tantangan terkait adanya liberalisasi perdagangan, maka kinerja, potensi dan daya saing sektor usaha yang terkait dengan keadaan tersebut seperti perlu ditingkatkan. peningkatan daya saing mutlak dilakukan baik untuk pasar dalam negeri maupun luar negeri. khususnya untuk pasar luar negeri, indonesia dan provinsi diy tidak bisa menghindar dari banyaknya kesepakatan perdagangan internasional yang sudah disepakati dan hal ini sudah menjadi konsekuensi logis negara yang terlibat di dalamnya. kesepakatan perdagangan internasional sifatnya ada yang multilateral (wto), regional (afta, apec, china-afta, korea_afta, australia-afta, new zealand-afta, indiaafta dan sebagainya) serta bilateral (ij-epa, indonesia-pakistan, indonesia-iran dan sebagainya). dalam rangka pelaksanaan pasar bebas, indonesia telah banyak terlibat dalam berbagai perjanjian dagang free trade area (fta), hal tersebut tentunya merupakan peluang pasar bagi produk ekspor potensial daerah-daerah di indonesia termasuk provinsi daerah istimewa yogyakarta. cakupan kerja sama kesepakatan perdagangan internasional yang disepakati meliputi perdagangan barang, perdagangan jasa, investasi dan kerja sama teknik. harapan yang dari adanya kesepakatan tersebut antara lain adalah terbukanya akses pasar produk barang dan jasa, terpenuhinya bahan baku, bahan penolong dan barang modal, investasi, daya saing, dan peningkatan daya beli. khusus dalam kesepakatan perdagangan barang, beberapa hal yang diatur antara lain meliputi penurunan/penghapusan tarif bea masuk, kriteria asal barang dan penghapusan hambatan perdagangan non tarif. sebenarnya kesepakatan perdagangan internasional ini banyak memberikan manfaat bagi kedua belah pihak, apabila kondisi masingmasing negara yang menandatangani kerjasama mempunyai tingkat daya saing yang sama. melalui berbagai kesepakatan perdagangan internasional yang disepakati akan tercipta persaingan yang ketat dan berdaya saing sehat, pertanyaan besar yang muncul adalah: “mampukah provinsi diy memanfaatkan keterbukaan pasar internasional dan mampu bersaing di pasar global?. jika tidak mampu maka provinsi diy hanya akan dimanfaatkan sebagai pasar produk dunia. berdasarkan latar belakang yang telah diuraikan di atas, maka dirasa perlu untuk mengetahui bagaimanakah daya saing produk ekspor diy dalam menghadapi liberalisasi perdagangan tersebut. dengan mengetahui tabel 1. daftar fta yang melibatkan indonesia no nama perjanjian 1 asean free trade area 2 asean–australia and new zealand free trade agreement 3 asean–india regional trade and investment area 4 asean–korea cmprehensive economic cooperation agreement 5 asean–japan comprehensive economic partnership 6 japan-indonesia economic partnership agreement 7 asean–china comprehensive economic cooperation agreement 8 asean-eu free trade area 9 comprehensive economic partnership for east asia 10 east asia free trade area 11 india-indonesia comprehensive economic cooperation arrangement 12 indonesia-australia free trade agreement 13 indonesia-european free trade agreement 14 pakistan-indonesia free trade agreement 15 united states-indonesia free trade agreement sumber : adb, 2010 daya saing produk ekspor (sri suharsih dan asih sriwinarti) 3 daya saing maka diharapkan dapat dijadikan masukan bagi pengambil kebijakan dalam menentukan strategi serta solusi pengembangan pasar produk ekspor provinsi diy dalam rangka menghadapi pasar bebas. tinjauan pustaka. daya saing perekonomian. krugman dan obsfeld (2006) berpendapat bahwa kemakmuran nasional dapat diperoleh melalui perdagangan internasional yang memberi manfaat saling menguntungkan bagi pihak-pihak yang menjual maupun pihak yang membeli. liberalnya perdagangan dunia akan menuntut peningkatan daya saing produk suatu negara di pasar global. daya saing negara tergantung dari kapasitas industri negara tersebut untuk terus berinovasi dan berkembang. perdagangan internasional yang mendorong terjadinya globalisasi ditandai dengan semakin berkembangnya sistem inovasi teknologi informasi, reformasi politik, sistem keuangan, dan investasi. pengembangan daya saing perkembangan konsep daya saing menurut cho dan moon (2006) di mulai dari pandangan merkantilisme yang memandang perdagangan sebagai suatu zero sum game, dengan surplus perdagangan sebuah negara diimbangi dengan defisit negara lain. namun adam smith memandang perdagangan sebagai positive sum game dngan semua mitra yang berdagang dan memperoleh manfaat jika negara-negara melakukan spesialisasi dalam memproduksi barangbarang yang memiliki keunggulan absolut, karena itu adam smith mendukung individualisme dan perdagangan bebas karena merupakan positive game. dalam hal ini persaingan adalah sangat penting. persaingan memastikan bahwa setiap orang dan negara akan melakukan apa yang paling sesuai mereka lakukan. kebijakan pemerintah yang paling penting adalah menghilangkan monopoli dan melindungi persaingan. perdebatan tentang keunggulan komparatif diawali oleh ricardian, sebuah negara yang superior mungkin tidak memperoleh manfaat dari perdagangan internasional. implikasi penting dari teori keunggulan komparatif adalah sekalipun sebuah negara tidak memiliki keunggulan absolut dalam barang apapun, suatu negara masih akan mendapatkan manfaat dari perdagangan internasional yang disebut keunggulan komparatif. keunggulan komparatif melandasi keunggulan pembagian tenaga kerja, baik antarindividu, antarwilayah, maupun antarnegara. model perdagangan ricardian merupakan suatu alat yang sangat bermanfaat untuk menjelaskan alasan-alasan mengapa perdagangan dapat terjadi dan bagaimana perdagangan meningkatkan kesejahteraan para mitra yang melakukan transaksi perdagangan. berbeda dengan model keunggulan komparatif yang cenderung outside in approach yang menempatkan pasar, kompetisi, dan konsumen sebagai titik awal proses penyusunan strategi. konsep yang disusun prahalad dan hamel lebih cenderung inside-out. daya saing dalam jangka panjang diturunkan dari kemampuan untuk membangun core competence, yaitu lower cost dan more speedily dari pesaing. the core competence dapat menghasikan produk baru yang tidak diantisipasi sebelumnya sumber utama untuk membangun core competence adalah kemampuan manajemen untuk mengkonsolidasi corporate wide technologies dan production skills menjadi kompetensi. core competence yang dimaksud harus memenuhi 3 persyaratan dasar yaitu: (1) menyediakan akses potensial ke pasar yang bervariasi luas, (2) membuat kontribusi nyata untuk membuat product benefit seperti yang diharapkan konsumen, (3) more competence seharusnya. sulit di tiru oleh pesaing. untuk membangun competence diperlukan proses perbaikan yang berkelanjutan yang menjadi komitmen seluruh level manajemen termasuk manajemen termasuk manajemen puncak. daya saing menggambarkan kemampuan bersaing di masa lalu, masa kini, dan dapat diproyeksikan ke masa depan. daya saing bersifat dinamis dan akan mengalami fluktuasi dari waktu ke waktu bergantung pada tingkat kompetisi, perubahan perilaku permintaan, dan kemampuan dasar industri di negara bersangkutan. menciptakan daya saing perdagangan di saat sebuah negara membuka diri dan lebih agresif dalam menerapkan konsep pasar bebas jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 13, nomor 1, april 2012: 1-11 4 maka pada saat itu pula negara tersebut dapat menjadi pemenang ataupun korban globalisasi. hasil akhirnya sangat bergantung kesiapan negara itu sendiri dan langkah-langkah yang diambil dalam menghadapi persaingan bebas tersebut. di samping peran para pedagang dan industri atau pengusaha dalam menciptakan keunggulan produk dan proses, diperlukan juga peran aktif pemerintah melalui penerapan strategi-strategi perdagangan yang terintegrasi. 1. wto dan rezim perdagangan lainnya. peraturan-peraturan yang diterapkan oleh wto dan rezim perdagangan lainnya, seperti afta atau perjanjian perdagangan bilateral, harus menjadi payung dalam rangka peningkatan daya saing perdagangan nasional. walau bagaimana pun, sebagai anggota dari badan dunia seperti wto dan sebagai negara yang telah menandatangani atau meratifikasi perjanjian perdagangan, kita wajib untuk menciptakan dan meningkatkan daya saing tanpa harus melanggar koridor yang ada. 2. infrastructure supply chain. sektor perdagangan tidak dapat terlpeas dari berfungsinya faktor rantai suplai (supply chain), bahkan pada kebanyakan jenis produk keunggulan produk termajinalisasi oleh buruk ataupun mahalnya rantai suplai ini. oleh karena itu, salah satu pilar paling utama untuk menciptakan daya saing perdagangan adalah adanya infrastructure supply chain yang memadai dan berfungsi dengan optimum. dua hal pokok dalam infrastructure supply chain ialah: (a) tersedianya jaringan transportasi yang efisien dan efektif; (b) tersedianya sarana pendukung yang memudahkan transaksi barang dan jasa antara pembeli dan penjual. standardisasi dan sertifikasi standardisasi dan sertifikasi menjadi sangat penting untuk mengurangi kesenjangan dalam interpretasi terhadap kualitas dan representasi dari barang dan jasa yang diperdagangkan. umumnya, pihak pembeli adalah yang menetapkan standar tersebut dan pihak penjual wajib memenuhi standar yang diminta apabila ingin mendapatkan nilai wajar (fair value) dari barang yang dijual. standar di sini dapat berbentuk fisik barang, kemasan, atau bentuk non-fisik lain. untuk produk-produk ekspor tertentu yang belum ada standar internasional, segera diperlukan adanya standar yang ditentukan bersama antara negara asal barang dan negara tujuan barang (bilateral atau multilateral bila menyangkut beberapa negara anggota perdagangan). di samping penerapan standar, daya saing juga dapat tercipta melalui adanya sertifikasi. dalam hal ini, sertifikasi menjadi kepanjangan tangan dan realisasi dari penerapan standar itu sendiri. infrastruktur informasi dan permodalan (capital) pilar ketiga dalam rangka peningkatan daya saing ialah perlunya sarana pendukung yang memudahkan tersedianya informasi dan permodalan. salah satu syarat penting dalam penyediaan informasi adalah dalam bentuk tersedianya sarana tukar-menukar informasi. hal ini dapat terfasilitasi dengan bagus dengan penerapan teknologi, seperti edi (electronic data interchange), intranet, dan extranet. adanya teknologi seperti ini memungkinkan untuk menghindari duplikasi, bekerja dengan menggunakan database yang sama, dan menarik interpretasi yang sinkron antara pihak yang bertransaksi. dengan adanya kemudahan dan transparansi ini, waktu untuk proses dokumentasi dan verifikasi dapat dipotong. peraturan dan kebijakan pilar keempat dalam peningkatan daya saing perdagangan berada di tangan pemerintah dan regulator, tepatnya dalam bentuk penerapan peraturan dan kebijakan yang mendukung dan mendorong perdagangan. pilar keempat ini sebenarnya menopang pilar-pilar yang lain karena pada dasarnya menjadikan tiga pilar pertama berfungsi dengan baik diperlukan peraturan dan kebijakan. best practice dan pengembangan kemampuan perdagangan pada akhirnya semua pilar dan payung yang tertulis di atas tidak akan berfungsi tanpa adanya fondasi yang kuat. dalam mening daya saing produk ekspor (sri suharsih dan asih sriwinarti) 5 katkan daya saing perdagangan, fondasi tersebut adalah kemauan produsen barang atau jasa untuk mengadopsi best practice dan secara konsisten melakukan peningkatan kemampuan perdagangan. metode penelitian data dan sumber data data yang digunakan dalam kegiatan ini adalah data sekunder dan data primer. data sekunder di peroleh dari laporan/publikasi pihak-pihak terkait terutama bappeda provinsi daerah istimewa yogyakarta, bps, serta dinas perindustrian dan perdagangan kabupaten/kota serta provinsi. data primer diperoleh dari pelaku usaha perdagangan ekspor di provinsi daerah istimewa yogyakarta. alat analisis metode analisis data yang akan digunakan dalam kajian ini adalah analisis diskriptif kuantitatif dan kualitatif. penggunaan analisis diskriptif (descriptive analysis) dimaksudkan untuk menyajikan atau mendiskripsikan data sekunder. sebelum dianalisis tentang daya saing produk ekspor provinsi diy maka terlebih dahulu akan dianalisis potensi produk ekspor diy. analisis deskriptif kuantitatif untuk potensi meliputi analisis location quetion (lq), analisis shift share (ss), analisis potensi berdasarkan one village one product (ovop), sementara untuk daya saing digunakan analisis revealed comparative advantage (rca), dan indeks spesialisasi perdagangan (isp) (1) analisis potensi (a) location quetion (lq). analisis lq merupakan analisis untuk menunjukkan basis produk berdasarkan kriteria kontribusi. analisis ini dimaksudkan untuk melihat keunggulan komparatif produk ekspor provinsi diy dibandingkan dengan indonesia. lq = keterangan: lq adalah nilai location quotient, x adalah variabel yang diamati, r adalah wilayah dengan area lebih sempit, i adalah sektor/ subsektor/produk, n adalah wilayah dengan area lebih luas (b) shift share. analisis shift share digunakan untuk melihat kontribusi produk andalan ekspor gj = ejt – ejo = (nj + pj + dj) nj = ejo (et/eo) – ejo (p+d)j = ejt – (et/eo) ejo = (gj – nj) pj = ∑i [(eit/eio) – (et/eo)] eijo nj = ∑t [ejit – (eit/eio) eijo] = (p+d)j – pj dimana: gj adalah pertumbuhan produk total, nj adalah komponen share, (p+d)j adalah komponen net shift daerah j, dj adalah differential shift daerah j, ej adalah produk total daerah j, e adalah produk total nasional (wilayah referensi), oit adalah periode awal dan akhir, i adalah subskrip sektor pada produk, j adalah subskrip daerah studi analisis daya saing revealed comparative advantage (rca) rca = . . keterangan: xa.x adalah nilai ekspor produk a negara x, xx adalah nilai total ekspor negara x, xa.z adalah nilai impor produk a dunia, xz adalah nilai total impor dunia (a) indeks spesialisasi (isp) isp = keterangan: x adalah nilai ekspor, m adalah nilai impor hasil dan pembahasan potensi berdasarkan analisis lq analisis lq dimaksudkan untuk melihat keunggulan komparatif provinsi diy dibanding jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 13, nomor 1, april 2012: 1-11 6 kan dengan indonesia. berdasarkan analisis lq, provinsi diy mempunyai 6 (enam) subsektor basis pada sektor industri. subsektor basis merupakan subsektor yang mempunyai koefisien lq > 1, artinya subsektor tersebut sangat bagus untuk di kembangkan dan lebih terspesialisasi dibandingkan sektor yang sama di tingkat nasional, dengan kata lain merupakan subsektor unggulan sektor industri di provinsi diy. adapun yang merupakan subsektor basis sektor industri di diy adalah subsektor (1) industri makanan minuman dan tembakau, (2) industri tekstil, barang dari kulit dan alas kaki, (3) industri kayu dan barang dari kayu lainnya, (4) industri kertas dan barang cetakan, (5) industri semen dan barang galian bukan logam, (6) industri barang lainnya. sementara itu industri yang bukan merupakan subsektor basis mempunyai nilai lq < 1, artinya kedua subsektor tersebut bukan subsektor basis dan kurang potensial dibandingkan dengan subsektor di tingkat nasional adalah: subsektor industri pupuk, kimia dan barang dari karet, serta industri alat angkutan, mesin dan peralatan. berdasarkan analisis lq tersebut dapat disimpulkan bahwa subsektor basis sektor industri di provinsi diy adalah subsektor makanan, industri tekstil, dan industri kerajinan. di sektor perdagangan, hotel dan restoran di diy terdapat 2 (dua) subsektor unggulan yang lebih terspesialisasi, yaitu subsektor hotel dan subsektor restoran, merupakan subsektor terbesar dalam sektor perdagangan, hotel dan restoran. sedangkan yang nilai koefisien lq < 1 artinya bukan subsektor basis adalah perdagangan besar dan eceran. potensi berdasarkan analisis shift share berdasarkan analisis shift share, sektor industri yang mempunyai share terbesar bagi pertumbuhan pbrb di diy adalah subsektor industri makanan, tekstil dan barang dari kulit, serta industri kerajinan. untuk industri tekstil, barang dari kulit dan alas kaki mempunyai rata-rata sumbangan sebesar 19,55 persen terhadap pdrb. tidak jauh berbeda dengan industri kayu dan barang dari kayu lainnya yang merupakan subsektor andalan, menyumbang pdrb rata-rata sebesar 12,87 persen. kemudian untuk industri kertas dan barang cetakan di provinsi diy hanya mempunyai sumbangan pdrb rata-rata sebesar 5,38 persen. sedangkan untuk industri pupuk kimia dan barang dari karet yang bukan termasuk subsektor industri andalan karena rata-rata nilai kontribusinya sebesar 5,53 persen. untuk industri semen dan barang galian bukan logam mempunyai kontribusi rata-rata sebesar 5,26. industri logam dasar besi dan baja mempunyai kontribusi nol. industri alat angkutan mesin dan peralatan hanya mempunyai rata-rata kontribusi sebesar 8,58 persen. sedangkan untuk industri barang lainnya mempunyai sumbangan rata-rata sebesar 7,06 persen. pada subsektor perdagangan besar dan eceran yang bukan merupakan subsektor potensial mempunyai sumbangan terhadap tabel 2. sektor potensial berdasarkan indeks lq lapangan usaha 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 rata-rata industri non migas 1 makanan, minuman dan tembakau 1,25 1,24 1,21 1,37 1,31 1,27 2 tekstil, barang dari kulit dan alas kaki 1,69 1,74 1,85 1,81 1,87 1,79 3 kayu dan barang dari kayu lainnya 2,89 3,15 3,63 3,14 2,68 3,09 4 kertas dan barang cetakan 0,97 0,99 1,03 1,09 1,06 1,02 5 pupuk kimia dan barang dari karet 0,44 0,35 0,38 0,42 0,47 0,41 6 semen dan barang galian bukan logam 1,49 1,51 1,61 1,69 1,76 1,61 7 logam dasar besi dan baja 8 alat angkutan, mesin dan peralatan 0,29 0,28 0,26 0,23 0,24 0,26 9 barang lainnya 8,68 8,32 9,18 9,76 9,36 9,06 perdagangan, hotel dan restoran 1 perdagangan besar dan eceran 0,51 0,52 0,51 0,51 0,51 0,51 2 hotel 2,21 1,75 1,91 2,19 2,16 2,04 3 restoran 3,59 3,72 3,75 3,71 3,49 3,05 sumber : hasil analisis daya saing produk ekspor (sri suharsih dan asih sriwinarti) 7 pdrb rata-rata sebesar 43,78 persen. subsektor hotel mempunyai rata-rata kontribusi sebesar 22,11 persen, sedangkan subsektor restoran dengan rata-rata nilai kontribusi sebesar 48,39 persen. berdasarkan analisis shift share subsektor industri makanan, tekstil, dan kayu merupakan subsektor yang layak untuk dikembangkan karena mempunyai share yang lebih besar terhadap sektor industri dibandingkan share subsektor sejenis nasional. di sektor perdagangan subsektor perdagangan besar dan eceran merupakan subsektor yang layak dikembangkan karena share terhadap sektor perdagangan lebih besar dibandingkan dengan share subsektor sejenis nasional (lihat tabel 3). potensi produk unggulan salah satu cara untuk mengetahui potensi produk ekspor provinsi diy adalah dengan melihat nilai produk ekspor yang tertinggi. potensial ekspor sangat terkait dengan produk unggulan provinsi daerah istimewa yogyakarta. adapun kriteria produk unggulan meliputi (1) pemakaian bahan baku dalam negeri lebih dari 70 persen (2) menyerap banyak tenaga kerja lebih dari 70 persen (3) pemasaran ke pasar ekspor lebih dari 90 persen dengan nilai ekspor lebih besar dari us $ 1 juta, negara tujuan ekspor lebih dari 3 negara, dan pertumbuhan ekspor lebih dari 5 persen selama 4 tahun (4) pemasaran pasar dalam negeri kurang dari 10 persen. perkembangan produk unggulan ekspor provinsi diy ditunjukkan oleh tabel 4 dalam lampiran. dilihat dari nilai produksinya pakaian jadi tekstil merupakan industri yang paling banyak menghasilkan output kemudian diikuti oleh mebel, sarung tangan kulit, dan kerajinan kayu. adapun produk unggulan tiap kabupaten/ kota di provinsi diy tampak dalam tabel 5. berkaitan dengan peningkatan produk potensial ekspor, selain mengembangkan produk unggulan di provinsi diy diarahkan juga pada pengembangan industri kreatif. ekonomi kreatif merupakan perwujudan dari upaya mencari pembangunan sektor industri yang berdaya sanig dan sustainable melalui peningkatan seni dan kreativitas. industri kreatif yang merupakan bagian dari ekonomi kreatif adalah sebuah industri yang mempunyai ide-ide baru, sdm yang kreatif dan juga mempunyai kema mpuan dan bakat yang terus dikembangkan dalam menyelesaikan setiap pekerjaan. industri kreatif sangat penting dikembangkan di provinsi diy karena provinsi diy merupakan kota budaya, pendidikan, dan wisata yang memiliki tabel 3. kontribusi sektor berdasarkan share industri bukan migas provinsi diy (2006 – 2010) (%) lapangan usaha 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 industri non migas 1 makanan, minuman dan tembakau 34,32 34,66 33,49 37,62 39,15 2 tekstil, barang dari kulit dan alas kaki 20,71 20,61 19,98 18,11 18,35 3 kaayu dan barang dari kayu lainnya 13,51 13,54 14,53 12,52 10,29 4 kertas dan barang cetakan 5,26 5,20 5,47 5,44 5,53 5 pupuk kimia dan barang dari karet 5,88 4,73 5,16 5,63 6,28 6 semen dan barang galian bukan logam 5,26 5,10 5,32 5,30 5,35 7 logam dasar besi dan baja 8 alat angkutan, mesin dan peralatan 9,20 8,88 8,63 8,12 8,08 9 barang lainnya 7,41 7,24 7,07 7,21 6,39 perdagangan, hotel dan restoran 1 perdagangan besar dan eceran 42,45 43 43,03 42,78 42,64 2 hotel 9,26 7,28 76,72 8,62 8,67 3 restoran 48,27 49,71 49,29 48,59 48,64 sumber: hasil analisis jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 13, nomor 1, april 2012: 1-11 8 banyak sdm kreatif. selain itu diharapkan industri kreatif mempunyai peluang yang besar memberikan kontribusi pertumbuhan ekonomi melalui sektor industri, menciptakan iklim bisnis yang positif, membangun citra dan identitas bangsa, berbasis kepada sdm kreatif dan inovatif yang menciptakan inovasi dan kreatifitas sehingga menciptakan keunggulan kompetitif bagi sektor industri provinsi diy dibandingkan provinsi lain bahkan negara lain. beberapa jenis industri kreatif yang sudah dikembangkan di provinsi diy tahun 2010 termasuk di kabupaten dan kota yogyakarta tampak dalam tabel 6. potensi berdasarkan one village one product (ovop) dalam rangka mengembangkan sektor industri potensial ekspor, berbagai strategi telah dilakukan, di antaranya provinsi diy telah menerapkan pembinaan industri dengan pola ovop (one village one product). prinsip ovop menurut morihito, hiramatsu, pre sident oita ovop adalah terdiri dari tiga azas yaitu: lokal tetapi global, swadaya mandiri dan orisinalitas serta pengembangan sumber daya manusia. pola pengembangan ovop di provinsi diy dilakukan sejak tahun 2008, pembinaan industri diy pola ovop mempunyai tujuan antara lain :(1) menggiatkan perekonomian daerah dan menjadikan yogyakarta mampu memproduksi produk berkualitas dan bisa masuk ke pasar dunia, (2) untuk mengembangkan suatu produk baru yang memanfaatkan sumber-sumber, kebudayaan dan tradisi lokal. adapun kriteria penetapan komoditi dalam rangka pembinaan dengan pola ovop di diy adalah sebagai berikut: (1) produk unggulan dan atau produk kompetensi inti daerah, (2) unik, khas budaya dan mengandung keaslian lokal, (3) bermutu dan berpenampilan baik, (4) berpotensi pasar domestik dan berdaya saing ekspor, (5) diproduksi secara kontinyu dan konsisten, (6) penyerapan tenaga kerja, (7) nilai ekspor tinggi berdasarkan kriteria tersebut maka telah ditetapkan komoditi yang akan dibina di provinsi diy meliputi: kerajinan hasil hutan, kerajinan kulit & produk kulit, tekstil tradisional, home decoration craft, kerajinan aksessories, kerajinan terakotta, kerajinan bamboo, industri dan jasa it, periklanan dan pameran, building material, industri kerajinan logam, dan kuliner tradisional. dari komoditi tersebut maka masing-masing kabupaten dan kota yogyakarta memfokuskan beberapa komoditi yang menjadi unggulan daerah masing-masing. komoditi pilihan masingmasing kabupaten/ kota yang dibina melalui pendekatan ovop tampak dalam tabel 7 di lampiran. tabel 6. industri kreatif no wilayah industri kreatif 1. provinsi diy periklanan, kerajinan, fashion, layanan komputer dan piranti lunak 2. kota yogyakarta pasar barang seni, kerajinan, fashion, film-video 3. kab. bantul pasar barang seni, kerajinan 4. kab. kulonprogo pasar barang seni, kerajinan, 5. kab. gunungkidul kerajinan 6. kab. sleman periklanan, kerajinan, fashion, layanan komputer dan piranti lunak sumber : disperindagkop provinsi diy tabel 5. produk unggulan kabupaten/ kota kab/kota produk unggulan provinsi diy garmen, kulit, meubel, kerajinan kayu, anyaman, gerabah, batik, perak kota yogyakarta perak, kulit, cerutu, sarung tangan kulit, garmen, batik, meubel bantul meubel, kerajinan kayu, gerabah, perhiasan, tenun tradisional, produk kulit kulonprogo minyak atsiri, kerajinan anyaman, produk alas kaki sleman meubel kayu, batik, kerajinan kulit, sarung tangan kulit, home decoration, lampu pijar sumber : disperindagkop provinsi diy daya saing produk ekspor (sri suharsih dan asih sriwinarti) 9 daya saing berdasarkan rca selama ini, produk ekspor unggulan diy adalah pakaian jadi tekstil (termasuk dalam kelompok tekstil dan barang dari tekstil), mebel (termasuk dalam kelompok kayu, barang dari kayu dan barang anyaman), dan sarung tangan kulit (termasuk kelompok kulit dan barang dari kulit). tiga produk unggulan tersebut coba dikomparatifkan dengan cina. kelompok barang yang memiliki keunggulan komparatif adalah kelompok barang yang mempunyai nilai rca lebih dari 1. adapun daya saing dari ketiga produk unggulan diy dapat dilihat pada tabel 8. tabel 8. nilai revealed comparatif advantage (rca) no kelompok barang nilai rca 1 kulit dan barang dari kulit 48,69 2 kayu, barang dari kayu dan barang anyaman 6,17 3 tekstil dan barang dari tekstil 3,81 sumber : bank indonesia, diolah berdasarkan tabel 8, terlihat bahwa tiga kelompok barang yang merupakan produk unggulan ekspor diy ternyata memiliki keunggulan komparatif dibandingkan cina. adapun komoditas unggulan untuk masing-masing kelompok barang yang memiliki keunggulan komparatif tersebut dapat dilihat pada tabel 9 dalam lampiran. daya saing berdasarkan indeks spesilaisasi untuk mengetahui prospek di masa yang akan datang apakah suatu komoditi mengalami kejenuhan atau sedang mengalami pertumbuhan maka digunakan indeks spesialisasi perdagangan (isp). tabel 10. indeks spesialisasi perdagangan diy 2010 no nama kelompok barang indeks spesialisasi 1 kulit dan barang dari kulit 0,95 2 kayu, barang dari kayu dan barang anyaman 0,94 3 tekstil dan barang dari tekstil 0,98 sumber : bank indonesia, diolah angka isp berkisar antara -1 sampai +1. jika isp antara -1 sampai -0,5 disebut tahap pengenalan. jika isp antara -0,5 sampai 0 disebut tahap substitusi impor dan antara 0 sampai 0,8 disebut tahap perluasan ekspor. isp sekitar +1 disebut tahap pematangan dan isp antara 0,8 sampai 0 disebut tahap mengimpor kembali. berdasarkan tabel 10 terlihat tiga kelompok barang di diy yang mempunyai keunggulan komparatif, ternyata di masa yang akan datang prospek ekspornya mengalami tahap pematangan. kondisi di atas menunjukkan bahwa sebenarnya komoditas-komoditas unggulan diy, masih cukup punya daya saing yang tinggi dan potensial untuk diekspor. simpulan liberalisasi perdagangan merupakan tantangan yang mau tidak mau harus dihadapi oleh provinsi diy. beberapa industri ekspor diy yang mempunyai potensi bagus untuk dikembangkan dalam rangka menghadapi pasar bebas adalah (1) industri makanan minuman dan tembakau, (2) industri tekstil, barang dari kulit dan alas kaki, (3) industri kayu dan barang dari kayu lainnya, (4) industri kertas dan barang cetakan, (5) industri semen dan barang galian bukan logam, (6) industri barang lainnya. sementara komoditas unggulan yang mempunyai daya saing tinggi untuk diekspor adalah kulit dan barang dari kulit, kayu, barang dari kayu dan barang anyaman, serta tekstil dan barang dari tekstil. dalam upaya peningkatan produk potensial ekspor, di provinsi diy diarahkan juga pada pengembangan industri kreatif. industri kreatif yang merupakan bagian dari ekonomi kreatif sangat penting dikembangkan di provinsi diy karena diharapkan mempunyai peluang yang besar memberikan kontribusi terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi karena mampu menciptakan keunggulan kompetitif bagi sektor industri provinsi diy dibandingkan provinsi lain bahkan negara lain. adapun industri kreatif di diy di antaranya meliputi periklanan, kerajinan, fashion, layanan komputer dan piranti lunak. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 13, nomor 1, april 2012: 1-11 10 rekomendasi kebijakan. dalam rangka meningkatkan daya saing produk ekspor diy maka dapat dilakukan melalui peningkatan kualitas produk ekspor dipasar global dengan cara peningkatan kualitas dan kuantitas event pameran produk ekspor provinsi diy, pemberian subsidi terhadap tempat sewa pameran serta sarana prasarana pameran yang dilakukan di yogyakarta, di daerah lain maupun diluar negeri, pembuatan website internasional mengenai produk ekspor provinsi diy yang updating, memaksimalkan event kerja sama antara provinsi diy dengan kota kyoto jepang (twin cities) untuk memasarkan produk provinsi diy, memfasilitasi misi dagang asing (buyer) ke daerah, mendirikan trading house produk ekspor dan meyusun pengelolaan trading house tersebut. trading house didirikan terutama karena banyaknya pelaku pelaku kreatif di provinsi diy dalam memproduksi suatu produk namun lemah dalam hal pemasaran produk. pembangunan trading house ini diharapkan dapat mempermudah jalur distribusi dan komersialisasi produk ekspor provinsi diy. kendala utama yang mungkin akan dihadapi adalah bagaimana mengemas suatu trading house bisa dipercaya oleh konsumen, dan bagaimana mengelola beberapa produk dan pelaku kreatif yang terlibat agar mampu memenuhi standar yang dipersyaratkan, mencari peluang tujuan ekspor dengan meningkatkan kerjasama dengan negara-negara afrika dan saudi arabia. negara-negara afrika merupakan emerging countries dengan tingkat konsumsi yang tinggi. meningkatkan kemampuan sdm perdagangan dengan meningkatkan kerjasama dengan dunia pendidikan, pengusaha, dan lsm melalui kegiatan pelatihan dan pendampingan usaha perdagangan, memfasilitasi penguatan kapasitas pelaku usaha perdagangan, seperti dengan sosialisasi sistem dan mekanisme pelaksanaan export-import adapun dalam upaya peningkatan daya saing produk ekspor (kualitas produk ekspor) melaui kebijakan dapat dilakukan dengan memberikan pelatihan dan pendampingan tenaga ahli serta pemberian subsidi untuk r & d usaha perdagangan, untuk meningkatkan produktifitas usaha perdagangan produk ekspor. upaya lain adalah dengan meningkatkan sinergi dan peran aktif masyarakat dan dunia usaha dalam rangka meningkatkan produktifitas, daya saing dan kemandirian produk perdagangan secara sistematis, berkelanjutan, dan terintegrasi. peningkatan kinerja sektor perdagangan dan ekonomi kreatif dapat dilakukan melalui fasilitas promosi dan penciptaan kebjakan perdagangan yang sesuai. daftar pustaka biro administrasi perekonomian dan sda setda provinsi daerah istimewa yogyakarta. 2011. “analisa kebijakan strategi pengembangan pasar dalam rangka menghadapi pasar bebas provinsi daerah istimewa yogyakarta”, laporan akhir hasil kerjasama biro administrasi perekonomian dan sda setda provinsi daerah istimewa yogyakarta dengan fakultas ekonomi upn “veteran” yogyakarta, tidak dipublikasikan. hamel and prahald. 1994. competing for the future. journal of international economic. usa: oxford university. itc market analysis section. 2000. the trade performance index – background paper. unctad/wto. obstfeld and krugman. 2006. international economics. canada: prentice hall. porter, michael e. 1990. the competitive advantage. singapore: mc. graw hill, macmillan publisher. widyasanti. 2011. perdagangan bebas regional dan daya saing ekspor: kasus indonesia. buletin ekonomi moneter dan perbankan., bank indonesia, juli. utkulu and seymen. 2004. revealed comparative advantage and competitivenes: evidence for turkey vis a vis the eu, presented on european trade study group 6th annual conference, nottingham. daya saing produk ekspor (sri suharsih dan asih sriwinarti) 11 lampiran tabel 4. komoditas ekspor non migas provinsi diy, tahun 2006 – 2010 komoditas nilai ekspor provinsi diy (us $ribu) pertumbuhan (%) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2007 2008 2009 2010 pakaian jadi tekstil 44,232 34,406 33,897 27,701 42,16 -22% -1% -18% 52,20 mebel kayu 32,305 26,104 24,279 18,674 18,19 -19% -7% -23% -2,59 sarung tgn kulit 13,408 10,559 16,931 11,352 17,24 -21% 60% -33% 51,87 stk sintetis 1,923 6,686 6,944 9,181 14,64 248% 4% 32% 59,46 kerajinan kertas 3,604 4,55 4,204 2,895 6,02 -87% 823% -31% 107,94 krjnan kayu 5,611 4,847 5,142 4,963 4,15 -14% 6% -3% -16,38 krjnan batu 2,604 3,136 3,473 3,741 4,05 20% 11% 8% 8,26 teh hijau/hitam 88 1,046 1,749 2,854 3,99 1077% 67% 63% 39,80 produk tekstil lainnya 1,582 320 714 859 3,36 -80% 123% 20% 291,15 kulit disamak 4,880 7,116 6,685 3,336 2,89 46% -6% -50% -13,37 total 110,149 93,900 103,304 84,697 116,69 tabel 7. produk ovop provinsi diy no wilayah produk ovop 1. kota yogyakarta kerajinan hasil hutan, kerajinan kulit, kerajinan asesoris, industri dan jasa it, periklanan dan pameran, industri kerajinan logam 2. kab. bantul kerajinan hasil hutan, kerajinan kulit, gerabah, tekstil tradisional, kerajinan asesoris, kerajinan bambu 3. kab. kulonprogo kerajinan hasil hutan, home decoration craft, produk herbal dan aroma terapi 4. kab. gunungkidul kerajinan hasil hutan, kerajian bambu, kerajinan kulit, kerajinan logam, produk herbal dan aroma terapi, home decoration, building material 5. kab. sleman kerajinan hasil hutan, tekstil tradisional, home decoration craft, kerajinan bambu, bahan bangunan, fashion, layanan komputer dan piranti lunak, kuliner tradisional sumber : disperindagkop provinsi diy tabel 9. komoditas unggulan masing-masing kelompok barang no kelompok barang komoditas unggulan 1 kulit dan barang dari kulit sarung tangan kulit sarung tangan kulit sintetis sarung tangan kulit kombinasi poliurethan kulit disamak kerajinan kulit 2 kayu, barang dari kayu dan barang anyaman mebel kayu kerajinan kayu papan kemas kerajinan bambu kerajinan rotan kerajinan jerami kerajinan mendong 3 tekstil dan barang dari tekstil pakaian jadi tekstil tekstil produk tekstil lainnya sumber : bank indonesia  jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 2, oktober 2017, hlm. 148-154 doi: 10.18196/jesp.18.2.4041 the comparison analysis of the empowerment productive zakah between city and rural communities in west kalimantan province rahmah yulisa kalbarini1, tika widiastuti2, dian berkah3 1sekolah pascasarjana, universitas airlangga surabaya, indonesia jalan airlangga no. 4-6, surabaya 2universitas airlangga surabaya, indonesia 3universitas muhammadiyah surabaya correspondence e-mail: rinikalbarini@yahoo.com received: july 2017; accepted: october 2017 abstract: this research purpose is to know the comparison empowerment of productive zakah between rural and urban communities in west kalimantan province. this research was conducted in two places, namely lembaga amil zakah (laz) rumah zakah and lembaga amil zakah (laz) dompet peduli ummat. the discussion of this research is about how the comparation of productive zakah empowerment performed by laz rumah zakah to urban and laz dompet umat to rural communities in west kalimantan province. this research was design in the form of a qualitative descriptive research throughout case studies strategy. in this research, the researcher using observation, interview and documentation as the instruments of data collection. the researcher was interested using a pairing pattern, making of explanation and analysis of time series in technique of data analysis. research result shows that, zakah empowerment that conducted by laz rumah zakah to urban community has fulfilled in one of the indicators which is the ability to take advantage of future enterprises. whereas, the empowerment programs which conducted by laz dompet umat to rural community also fulfilled two indicators: the decision-making ability and economic independence. for overall, the empowerment programs which conducted by laz dompet umat is better than what laz rumah zakah did to the urban because there are two indicators achieved. keywords: productive zakah, empowerment, amil zakah institution, rural community, urban community jel classification: o10, l20, r51 abstrak: penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui perbandingan pemberdayaan zakah produktif antara masyarakat desa dan kota di provinsi kalimantan barat. penelitian dilakukan di dua tempat yaitu lembaga amil zakat (laz) rumah zakah dan lembaga amil zakat (laz) dompet peduli ummat. pembahasan penelitian ini adalah bagaimana perbandingan pemberdayaan zakat produktif yang dilakukan oleh laz rumah zakat untuk masyarakat kota dan laz dompet ummat untuk masyarakat desa di provinsi kalimantan barat. metode penelitian yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah kualitatif deskriptif dengan strategi penelitian menggunakan studi kasus. penelitian ini menggunakan observasi, wawancara dan dokumentasi dalam pengumpulan datanya. teknik analisis data dalam penelitian ini menggunakan penjodohan pola, pembuatan penjelasan dan analisis deret waktu. hasil penelitian adalah pemberdayaan zakah yang dilakukan oleh laz rumah zakat untuk masyarakat kota telah memenuhi satu indikator pemberdayaan yaitu kemampuan untuk memanfaatkan usaha di masa datang. program pemberdayaan yang dilakukan oleh laz dompet ummat untuk masyarakat desa telah memenuhi dua indikator pemberdayaan yaitu kemampuan dalam pengambilan keputusan dan kemandirian ekonomi. secara keseluruhan program pemberdayaan yang dilakukan oleh laz dompet ummat lebih baik daripada program pemberdayaan yang dilakukan oleh laz rumah zakat untuk masyarakat kota. hal ini terlihat dari terpenuhinya dua indikator pemberdayaan. kata kunci: zakat produktif, pemberdayaan, lembaga amil zakah, masyarakat desa, masyarakat kota klasifikasi jel: o10, l20, r51 the comparison analysis of the empowerment… (kalbarini, r.y., widiastuti, t., berkah, d.) 149 introduction indonesia is an archipelagic country with total land area at about 910,931.32 km². population census conducted by the central statistics agency (bps) in 2010 revealed that the total population of indonesia in 2010 was about 237, 641, 326 people, includes people living in urban area was 118,320,256 (49.79 per cent) and in rural area was approximately 119,321,070 (50,21per cent). as a country that has a dense population, indonesia has intractable problem, poverty. the central statistics agency (bps) said that the number of people living below the poverty line in indonesia in march 2015 reach 28,59 million or 11,22% of the total population of indonesia. islam considers poverty is something to be avoided. qardhawi (2010) states that islam regards poverty is dangerous to faith, morals and behavior, thoughts, family and community. poverty can be harmful to aqidah because poverty can be a major cause doubts about the wisdom of god when a poor people be neighbors with a rich people who are not good or when a poor hard-working people be neighbors with a rich who just sit at home. poverty is dangerous to akhlaq or behavior because it makes people with their tiredness to act something despicable. poor people who cannot fulfill their needs also can be harmful for their thought. poverty also has bad impact for family especially for formation, needs and serenity. the highlight of poverty does not only affect them self and their family but also dangerous for the community peace. if poverty arising from unfair distribution of wealth and the luxuries life of few people then cause the social jealousy that can evoke emotions and cause a problem to ruin silaturrahim between communities (qardhawi 2010). as contained in surah an-nisa: verse 9, ْم ِه فِ لْ ْه َخ كُىا ِم ََش يَه لَْى ت َش الَِّز يَْخ لْ َو تَّقُىا يَ لْ ْم فَ ِه يْ لَ بفُىا عَ عَبفًب َخ يَّخً ِض ُّسِ ر ًًل يَقُىلُىا قَْى لْ َ َو يذًاَّللاَّ ِذ سَ “and let those (executors and guardians) fear (injustice) as if they (themselves) had left weak offspring behind and feared for them. so, let them fear allah and speak words of appropriate justice.” poverty in indonesia is also happening in west kalimantan province which is the fourth largest province in indonesia and has a total population in september 2014 to reach 4716.1 million (statistical yearbook of indonesia). the number of people living below the poverty line in west kalimantan in march 2015 was 383 700, or approximately 8.03% of the total population (pontianak.tribunnews.com). west kalimantan has 12 districts and 2 cities and has several districts, sub-districts and villages. the number of districts, sub districts and villages in west kalimantan are presented in the following table: table 1. the number of districts and the number of village in west kalimantan regency/city the number of sub districts the number of urban communities the number of villages kab. sambas 19 183 kab. pontianak 9 7 60 kab. sanggau 15 6 163 kab. ketapang 20 9 240 kab. sintang 14 6 281 kab. kapuas hulu 23 4 278 kab. bengkayang 17 2 122 kab. landak 13 156 kab. sekadau 7 87 150 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 2, oktober 2017: 148-154 regency/city the number of sub districts the number of urban communities the number of villages kab. melawi 11 169 kab. kayong utara 6 43 kab. kubu raya 9 115 kota pontianak 6 29 kota singkawang 5 26 kalimantan barat 174 89 1.897 source: rpjmd west kalimantan province 2014 – 2018 west kalimantan (kalimantan barat) is populated by several ethnic groups namely ethnic dayak (34.93%), malays (33.84%), javanese (9.74%) and ethnic chinese (8.17%). the characteristics of dayak ethnic as the dominant ethnic are strong, handsome, brave and tenacious. the most religion embraced by the west kalimantan people is islam with the percentage 59.22%, followed by the protestant or catholic 34.32% (id.wikipedia.org). zakah potential in west kalimantan in 2011 reached 1.2 trillion (bazda pontianak). zakah collected by baznas in west kalimantan province in 2011 reached rp 1,628 billion (www.imz.com). this study is comparing empowerment in the rural by lembaga amil zakah (laz) dompet ummat and empowerment in the city conducted by the rumah zakah. dompet ummat is one of amil zakah institutions in pontianak, west kalimantan which was established in 2001. dompet ummah has variety programs such as scholarship, ambulance, assistance for livestock villages and other. laz dompet ummat also has excellent program namely empowerment program for the weavers in sambas. rumah rakat is zakah organization which was established in 2008. laz rumah zakah pontianak has several programs that are integrated with the center of laz rumah zakah namely senyum juara, senyum sehat, senyum mandiri and senyum lestari. senyum mandiri is one of empowerment program conducted by laz rumah zakah to mustahiq located in east pontianak more precisely in banjar serasan village. this research was done because of the amil zakah institutions prefer choose to empower the city than the village. it was causing unbalanced empowerment programs conducted by amil zakah institutions and as the result a welfare gap between urban and rural communities can't be avoided. based on this background, the researcher concluded that west kalimantan is very interesting to dig deeper because of the enormous potential of zakah there however not supported by optimal community development. given the breadth of areas in west kalimantan, the researcher limited research about the empowerment of zakah into two regions are sambas to representing rural areas and pontianak to representing urban areas. threre some literature in accordance with zakah’s concept and definition, zakah concept zakah is derived from zakã which means to grow to flourish. in the islamic law books, zakah words interpreted as purified, grow, and develop as well as blessing (adi, 1988). nawawi said that the definition of zakah based on four school stances (mahzab) are as follow: zakah, according to the hanafi mahzab, is zakah maal giving due to allah, to be owned by the poor, besides bani hashim and his former slave with condition that the treasure advantage must be disconnected, ie not back to the original owner in any way. zakah, according to the malik mahzab, was issued a specific part of specific treasure as well, which has reached nisab given to those who deserve it, ie, if the goods that belonged full of the comparison analysis of the empowerment… (kalbarini, r.y., widiastuti, t., berkah, d.) 151 givers and had birthday, for in addition to mineral and agricultural products (adi, 1988). zakah, according to the shafi’i mahzab, is a particular treasure that must to be taken out from certain assets in certain ways as well. shafi’i reveals that there are two kinds of zakah maal, namely zakah on goods of trade or trading and related to the goods themselves like animals, valuables and plants. zakah, according to the hambali school mahzab, is the right of property that must to be taken out. hambali jurists say that in principle the levy and distribute zakah maal is the task of the government, in other words the law of zakah including the wealth of the people are regulated by the government (adi, 1988). asnaini (2008) in widiastuti (2015: 64), productive zakah is zakah that can make the recipients produce something sustainably with zakah had received. thus, productive zakah is a zakah where wealth or charity funds given to the mustahiq not spent for consumption or daily needs, but developed and used to help their businesses, so that with their businesses can fulfill their daily needs. zakah according to nawawi (2009) aimed to reduce poverty and creating income distribution for society. surah at-taubah: verse 60 states that, zakah is a tool to improve social relations between rich and poor to reduce income disparity. يِه ۞ إ بِك سَ الَْم اِء َو فُقََش لْ َقَبُد لِ ذ ب الصَّ وََّم ِِ فِي ْم َو لَّفَِخ قُلُىثُهُ َؤ ُم الْ ب َو لَيْهَ يَه عَ لِ عَبِم الْ َو ا ِ َو جِيِل َّللاَّ فِي سَ يَه َو ِم غَبِس الْ قَبةِ َو ِه الّشِ ثْ يمٌ ِك يمٌ َح لِ ُ عَ َّللاَّ ِ ۗ َو َه َّللاَّ خً ِم يضَ جِيِل ۖ فَِش السَّ “zakah expenditure are only for the poor and for the needy and for those employed to collect (zakah) and for bringing hearths together (for islam) and for freeing captives (or slaves) and for those in debt and for the cause of allah and for the (standed) traveler – an obligation (imposed) by allah. and allah is knowing and wise.” yusuf al-qardawi summarized in a book by chalil (2009), stating that the purpose of zakah in quran is described in two phrases that tuthahhiruhum, clean them (the zakah giver or muzakki), and tuzakkihim, purify muzakki. nawawi (2010) states that zakah has several functions such as social function, economic function, and circulation of money and business function. the social function of zakah is to keep and save capital humanely, by cutting off a certain part of the economic capital profits, which is then directed to the areas that must be financed, so the capital human safety and economic capital can be guaranteed, and social growth and the growth of islamic society be guaranteed. the economic function of zakah according to nasutin (2007) in nawawi, (2010) are: 1. production: zakah will create new demander potential to increase aggregate revenues which encourage producers to increasing their production to fulfill demand. 2. investment: increasing production will encourage companies (firms) to increasing investment. 3. field work: increasing investment to encourage production expansion bigger will create jobs. 4. economic growth: increased aggregate consumption and increased investment will encourage economic growth. 5. social inequality: zakah also distributes the revenues, particularly in reducing income gap and social inequality. zakah functions in money and business circulation are: 1. zakah with money urge a muzakki to do money circulation so as to encourage capital activities in the country on economy and capital projects. 2. investment motive in islamic nature is growth because if money does not grow and did not give any results, it will soon be eroded by zakah. 152 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 2, oktober 2017: 148-154 amil zakah, infaq, and sadaqah institution (lazis) has the responsibility and obligation to manage and utilize the zakah as stated in surah at-taubah: verse 103, ْم يِه كِّ َُز ت ْم َو هُ ُش هِّ ُطَ ذَقَخً ت ْم صَ ِه الِ َى َْم ْه أ زْ ِم ُخ مْ ۖ إِنَّ ِه لَيْ ّلِ عَ صَ ب َو ْم ۗ ثِهَ ٌه لَهُ كَ ََك سَ ت ََل صَ لِيمٌ يٌع عَ ِم ُ سَ َّللاَّ َو “take, (o, muhammad), from their wealth a charity by which you purify them and cause them increase, and invoke (allah’s blessing) upon them. indeed, your invocations are reassurance for them. and allah is hearing and knowing.” empowerment kartasasmita (1996) revealed that empowerment in society context is individual’s ability who fused in community and build community empowerment is concerned. empower communities is an attempt to improve the society dignity which in present conditions are not able to escape from trap of poverty and underdevelopment, in other words, empowerment is to enable and empower community’s independence. islam teaches people to have a perspective to be better today than yesterday and tomorrow should be better than today. therefore, islam gives impetus to man to always work and develop themselves. allah says in the surah attaubah: verse 105, سُىلُهُ َس ْم َو لَكُ َم ُ عَ ي َّللاَّ يََش لُىا فَسَ َم قُِل اعْ َو ىُىَن ۖ ِم ْؤ ُم الْ غَيْتِ َو ِم الْ بلِ ًٰ عَ َ ل ُّوَن إِ د َُش ت سَ َو لُىنَ َم َعْ ُمْ ت ت ىْ ب كُ َم ْم ثِ ُكُ ئ ِ ىَجّ يُ بدَحِ فَ هَ الشَّ َو “and say. “do (as you will), for allah will see your deeds, and (so, will) his messenger and the believers. and you will be returned to knower of the unseen and the witnessed, and he will inform you of what you used to do.” the empowerment indicators in this study is cited from opinion of prananka and vidhyandika (1996), kartasasmita (1995), slamet (2003), and jamasy (2004) which summarized in widjajanti (2011) that states that the society empowerment is its powers, strength or ability by communities to identify the potential and problems also be able to determine alternative solution independently. community empowerment is measured through three aspects (a) the ability of decision-making, (b) economic independence, and (c) the ability to utilize the business for the future. research method yin (2014) states that the case study is one of the research methods of the social sciences. the case study is an appropriate strategy when the principal question of a study with regard to how and why, when researchers have little opportunity to control events that will be investigated, and where the focus of his research lies in contemporary phenomenon (present) in the context of real life. this research was conducted to answer the research problems formulation on how do comparison of the productive zakah eempowerment between urban and rural communities in west kalimantan province. the problem formulation needs a thorough and indepth study and accurate data so the researchers conducted observation and interview the informant directly. informants in this study were shown to laz rumah zakah and dompet ummat chairman as policymakers in amil zakah institution. the reason for choosing this informant is expect that laz chairman can provide information about the importance of empowering the productive zakah to mustahiq. empowerment managers are responsible for laz empowerment program. the reason for choosing informants was because empowerment manager expected to know about empowering productive zakah conducted by laz rumah zakah and dompet ummat clearly. mustahiq receives assistance from laz the comparison analysis of the empowerment… (kalbarini, r.y., widiastuti, t., berkah, d.) 153 rumah zakah and dompet ummat more than 1 year. the reason for choosing this informant was to determine the success of a productive zakah empowerment programs conducted by laz rumah zakah and dompet ummat. this type of data obtained consists of primary and secondary data. the primary data obtained from interviews with various parties such as the leader of amil zakah institute rumah zakah and dompet ummat as policymakers in laz, empowerment program manager who is in charge mustahiq empowerment programs in dompet ummat. mustahiq get the beneficiaries of the empowerment productive zakah program in rumah zakah and wallets ummah. secondary data from this study were obtained documents used as reference in making this paper. other secondary data obtained from the study of literature that contains literature on islamic economics, journal, and web sites. result and discussion dompet ummat is an amil zakah institution (laz) located in pontianak, west kalimantan, which is responsible for receiving, managing and distributing zakah, infaq, alms and waqaf from donors to mustahiq. the programs that exist in the dompet ummatinclude ambulances, educational scholarship, help the childbirth cost, empowerment and other livestock village. the flagship program owned by laz dompet ummat is empowering productive zakah to the weavers in the village of hope, district sambas, west kalimantan. amil zakah institution rumah zakah is one of an amil zakah institution in pontianak. laz rz initially a clinic program held by indosat enterprise. over time the demand for free health care for the poor and zakah, alms, infaq potential and more so rumah zakah centre which located in bandung opened new branch in pontianak in november 2008. the flagship program of laz rumah zakah is empowering the poor cake businessman in pontianak precisely in banjar serasan area, kapuas river banks. this study uses three indicators: decisions making ability, economic independence and ability to take advantage of future enterprises. this study demonstrated to laz’s leader, empowerment manager and mustahiq. the first indicator is decision making ability for rural people who are mustahiq of empowerment productive zakah of laz dompet ummat that seen from ability to take big decisions like buying a house and other productive item such as looms and motorcycles to facilitate business. decision making ability for urban people who are mustahiq of empowerment productive zakah of laz rumah zakah is seen from the decision to buy production tools thereby increasing the amount of cake production and expand marketing area. decision making ability better implemented by rural mustahiq than urban mustahiq because many important decisions taken by rural mustahiq which indicates increase income and welfare. economic independence for the rural people who are mustahiq of laz dompet ummat is seen from mustahiq ability to pay off their debts to collectors so as to create economic independence. economic independence for the urban people who are mustahiq of laz rumah zakah is seen from the ability to produce and market the cake production them self and not depend on others. economic independence of rural mustahiq is better than urban because mustahiq economic independence in rural before empowerment is very low and as evident is mustahiq’s debt to collectors that caused mustahiq dependent on collectors. ability to utilize the business in the future for rural people who are mustahiq of laz dompet ummat is seen from their saving and productive asset for business continuity in the future while ability to utilize the business in the future for urban people is seen from saving and productive asset as well as the innovation made 154 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 2, oktober 2017: 148-154 by mustahiq to survive in the business. ability to utilize the business in the future better applied by the urban than rural people for their innovation and use of technology so that urban people by can develop and maintain their business well. conclusion the conclusion of this study is the empowerment of zakah productive by amil zakah institute rumah zakah which was shown by urban people and amil zakah institution dompet ummat which was shown by rural people who successfully executed. the results of this study indicated that empowerment in rural is run better than urban. it can be seen from the fulfillment of these two indicators by rural people that the first is the ability to make decisions judged by mustahiq ability in taking important decisions for survival in the long term and the second is economic independence assessed on mustahiq ability to fulfill daily needs without depending on others. the ability to utilize future enterprises of mustahiq assessed on the ability to develop and maintain its business in the long term. the ability to take advantage of future enterprises is better applied by the urban people because of their innovation and technology. based from conclusion above, the study suggests some recommendations to zakah institution, government, and further research are: 1. for zakah institution zakah institution should give more empowerment programs because of empowerment program is a program that is highly effective in reducing poverty. zakah institutions also should hold cooperation with various parties, both the government and private sector in order to give greater value assistance to mustahiq so that the number of empowered mustahiq increased. 2. for government the government should participate in development programs either in the form of funds and the provision of access to development programs undertaken by amil zakah institutions. 3. for further research future studies are expected to examine the empowerment program by using more indicators involving more amil zakah institution as research subjects. further research is also expected to examine the other development programs to remote rural and not only in urban. references adi, m., d. (1988). islamic economic system zakah and waqf. jakarta: universitas airlangga publisher (ui-press). chalil, z., f. (2009). equitable distribution of wealth in islamic economics, jakarta, erlangga publisher. kartasasmita, g. (1996). development for the people, jakarta, pt. pustaka cidesindo. nawawi, i. (2009). syariah institutional economics: a global economy in the whirl demands and reality. surabaya: cv. putra media nusantara. nawawi, i. (2010). zakah in fiqh, social and economic perspective. surabaya. cv putra media nusantara. qardhawi, y. (2010). shadaqah: islamic way of alleviating poverty. bandung: remaja rosdakarya. widjajanti, k. j. (2011). community empowerment model. economic development journal. vol. 12, no. 1: 1527. yin, r., k. (2014). case study: design and methods. jakarta: pt. rajagrafindo persada. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 2, oktober 2018, hlm. 91-100 doi: 10.18196/jesp.19.2.5001 the relationship between corporate governance and financial performance in islamic banks syed amaar ali ausat department of accountancy & finance, school of social science, heriot-watt university edinburgh, united kingdom correspondence e-mail: aausat@aol.com received: june 2018; accepted: october 2018 abstract: corporate governance refers to policies and mechanisms related to how the company is directed and controlled and looks at the board of directors and their characteristics for example. the focus of this study will be to investigate the relationship of corporate governance and financial performance for islamic banks. the corporate governance variables and financial data was collected using the orisis database and looking through annual reports of the banks from 2013 to 2017. the sample comprised 12 listed islamic banks from different countries and used a panel data approach with a set of 60 firm-year observations. the corporate governance variables selected included, board size, ceo duality, board independence and shariah supervisory board size to test their effect of a firm’s performance measured by roa and roe. other firm level characteristics such as size and age of the banks were included to reduce the amount of external influence throughout the study. results were analysed using descriptive statistics, pearson correlation matrix, generalised least squared (gls) regression and the random effect model. the concluding results proved that there was a positive relationship between some corporate governance variables and a firm’s performance. board size was reported as the most significant factor which affects financial performance as measured by roa. however, interestingly ceo duality was also noted to be a significant factor which affected performance. this was seen for both performance measures; roa and roe. the remaining independent variables and control variables showed no significant correlation to a firm’s performance and that there must be external factors which explain performance. the results showed that corporate governance was a necessary consideration for improved performance. keywords: corporate governance, firm performance, islamic banking, gls regression jel classification: g34, l25, z12, c23 introduction corporate governance has been a concern in developed and developing countries due to the onslaught of corporate scandals which have highlighted the importance of corporate governance practices on the global economy (vaughn & verstehen ryan, 2006). over the past few decades, many companies around the world, such as enron, world com and more recently, carillion have suffered from failures in their corporate governance strategies from many problems relating to agency theory. the implications of maintaining good corporate governance has become an essential factor for improving a firm performance and encouraging economic development through the enhancement of investments (price, román, & rountree, 2011). failures in corporate governance have seen some of the largest companies around the world collapse, further highlighting its significance. as a result, many developed countries have established corporate governance rules and regulations that listed companies, in particular, must adhere to, in order to protect themselves and the public, for instance, the united kingdom (uk) corporate governance code, (formally known as the combined code), published by the financial reporting council in 2003, the us sarbanes-oxley act in 2002 and australian stock exchange (asx) corporate mailto:aausat@aol.com 92 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan vol. 19, no. 2, oktober 2018: 91-100 governance principles of 2002 (otman, 2014). however, the principles outlined in these codes are largely derived from different recommendations by developed countries’ governments and may not necessarily apply to all countries (haniffa & hudaib, 2006). each country has a unique social and economic climate, meaning that certain rules and regulations that apply in one country, may not be as applicable in another. similarly, each corporation is based on many differing factors, such as culture, religion, history and objectives and therefore corporate governance strategies should take this into account. this is especially relevant in the case of islamic banks (haniffa & hudaib, 2006). islamic financial institution (ifi) is a term used to describe the different types of institutions that comprise the islamic financial industry which mainly consists of banks, accounting firms and finance companies. these companies’ activities are consistent with the islamic rule of law (shariah law) and are guided by principles of islamic economics. the underlying principles of shariah compliant finance is described by samra (2016), as financing activities which include; the prohibition of interest (riba) which translates to ‘an unjustified increase’, prohibition of financing prohibited (haram) industries (e.g. sale of alcohol, pork bellies, tobacco), prohibition of excessive risk taking (gharar) and the quest for a just and ethical society which includes the payment of obligatory charitable contributions (zakat). a profit sharing concept is used within investing activities, where the return to investors is linked to profits of the activity, which is derived from risk. a ‘sukuk’ is the most common form of investment and is similar to a bond and uses a profit sharing system. there are also other forms of investment including ‘ijara’ which is similar to a lease and is used as an alternative to mortgages for homeowners or leasing a car, for example (samra, 2016). according to the global islamic finance report (2017), ifis currently contribute over us$ 2.293 trillion to the global market and operate in over 75 countries which has seen growth of 7-10% annually in the last three years. this sector has provided consumers access to an alternative financing method that conforms to religious islamic law or shariah. although certain practices differ with regards to ifis, it should not be assumed that there is little need for corporate governance, just because the islamic value system inherently protects the rights of stakeholders (ahmed & chapra, 2002). over the years, islamic banks have also seen major collapses due to corporate governance breaches, such as the demise of the islamic bank of south africa in 1997 and the corporate fraud seen in the dubai islamic bank in 2004. this provides a significant reminder that like conventional banks, islamic banks require robust corporate governance systems. the following figure shows the progression of growth in islamic banks and financial institutions (ibfi) from 2007 and 2016 worldwide, including future forecasts. figure 1. size and growth of ibfi between 2007 and 2016 with future growth prospects source: gifr (2017) given the continued growth of islamic banking and the increase in corporate scandals, it is important to examine corporate governance mechanisms which contribute to improved performance and the continued success of the firm. the relationship between corporate governance and financial… (syed amaar ali ausat) 93 research method type and data sources the data types, employed throughout this research, include market and accounting based data. the data is exclusively secondary data, obtained primarily from annual reports, as well as from the orisis database. the independent variables were obtained from annual reports of the islamic banks and the dependent and control variables were obtained from the orisis database. orisis is a very practical and easy tool to use to gather company and financial data for companies worldwide, which was extremely beneficial. the annual reports were downloaded and examined to find the corporate governance information required regarding the companies. data samples dan period the data sample chosen was based on public islamic banks throughout the world. the banks were ranked in terms of size of assets and the largest 12 banks were chosen. selected firms were extrapolated from orisis, but the choice of firms was dependent on availability of information. companies, where annual reports were not available, were excluded, as many islamic banks do not follow the same regulations as conventional banks and therefore often partial information only was available. due to the nature of the islamic banks, most banks were located in the middle east and asia. to ensure the reliability of the study, a long sample period was chosen. as the objective of this work was to explore the relationship between corporate governance variables and afirm’s performance, a longer time period allowed the identification of changes in corporate governance policies and characteristics that impacted the company’s performance. conducting an analysis over a shorter period of time has drawbacks, as trends cannot always be seen, and looking at more historic data may not be relevant to the inner workings of the companies today. therefore, a sample period of five years was selected where data was collected annually from 2013 to 2017. consequently, due to lack of information of companies, a panel data set was developed for this paper which comprises 12 listed islamic banks covering a period of 2013 to 2017. therefore, the number of observations for this study establishes a panel data set of 60 firmyear observations. the following formula explains the calculation of the number of observations: n x t = 12 x 5 = 60 observations where n represents the number of islamic banks and t represents the number of years which is 5. definition of operational variables the variables used in this study are separated into the independent, dependent, and control variables and will be explained and interpreted. to measure the independent variables which are the internal corporate governance mechanisms, a number of methods will be used. the independent variables which are to be tested include; the size of the board (bsize), the ownership structure or ceo duality (dual), the board independence (neds) and the shariah supervisory board size (ssbs). in order to measure the dependent variables which are the performance measures, two methods have been selected; return on asset (roa) and return on equity (roe). in addition, the study will incorporate control variables to manage a firm’s characteristics that could influence or impact the performance of the company. the control variables chosen are the age of the firm (age) and the size of the firm measured in terms of size of assets (lsize). data analysis technique 1. regression (gls) a generalised least squared (gls) regression model is the primary technique used to examine the influence of variables on 94 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan vol. 19, no. 2, oktober 2018: 91-100 table 1. summary of variables variable name variable category symbol definition return on asset dependent roa net income/ total assets return on equity dependent roe net income/shareholder’s equity board size independent bsize the total number of directors on the board ceo duality independent dual dummy variable is equivalent to ‘1’ if there is a dual role and ‘0’ if separate role board independence independent neds the percentage of non-executive directors on the board sharia supervisory board size independent ssbs the total number of members of the sharia advisory board firm age control age the number of years of firm's existence since year of incorporation firm size control lsize the natural logarithm of the size of total assets the relationship between corporate governance characteristics and a firm’s performance. gls is used when there is a certain degree of correlation between variables or the variances of observations are unequal (heteroscedasticity). this means that the gls regression is more suitable for this data, as it accounts for variables which are not in this model. gls is used over ordinary least squared (ols) when errors in each time period are uncorrelated with variables in the current time period and by using ols it might lead to misleading results. the gls estimator is therefore used for the random effect model which allows for tests related to cross sectional units (gaur & delios, 2006). a simple gls regression with a single independent variable is shown below, which shows the linear relationship between the dependent variable (y) and the independent variable (χ). y = α + βχ the study incorporates a variety of independent variables and therefore the model can be extended to incorporate the rest of the variables being tested. yi =  + 1χ + 2χ + 3χ + 4χ+ 5χ + 6χ +i where y is the dependent variable; χ is the independent variable known as the repressor;  is the intercept which indicates the value of the independent variable when the dependent variable is equal to 0.  are the n coefficients for the χ, which show the change in y that is associated with a unit change in χ, when controlling for other independent variables in the model; and  is the error term. 2. panel data approach to further facilitate the reliability of the analysis of the relationship between corporate governance mechanism and firm performance, this paper will employ a panel data methodology. as explained by gujarati (2003), in panel data, the crosssectional units (the firm) is surveyed over time. therefore, panel data has space and time dimensions. furthermore, an advantage of panel data, is that it accounts the relationship between corporate governance and financial… (syed amaar ali ausat) 95 for observable and unobservable facts, such as heterogeneity, which has not been included in some previous work (dezso & ross, 2012). thus, the regression model will be adapted to include the effect of panel data: yit =  + χit+ it 3. regression model in order to test the hypotheses outlined, they will be tested against the following models: performance =  +1 board size + 2 ceo duality + 3 board independence + 4 shariah supervisory board size +5 size of asset+ 6age +μ + roa =  + 1.bsizeit + 2.dualit + 3.nedsit + 4.ssbsit+ 5.lsizeit + 6.ageit+ μit+ εit roe =  + 1.bsizeit + 2.dualit + 3.nedsit + 4.ssbsit+ 5.lsizeit + 6.ageit+ μit+ εit where: i = the firm number, ranging from 1-12 t = the time period, ranging from 2013 – 2017 α = fixed variable (y-intercept) β1 – β4 = independent variables used and β1 is the coefficient of the independent variables β5 β6 = coefficients of the control variables μ = unobservable random effect  = error term roa and roe represent the performance measure used which is the dependent variable. 4. panel data methodology (random and fixed effect) due to many past studies lacking variables and containing endogeneity problems, whereby the explanatory variable is correlated to the error term, fixed effect and random effect analysis will be undertaken. this is important when analysing panel data to achieve robust results for variables which have been omitted or not considered. the hausman test is used to differentiate between random effects and fixed effect estimates. the null hypothesis (h0) suggests that the random effect model should be used, whereas the alternative hypothesis (h1) suggests that the fixed effect model is appropriate, and the hausman test can identify this. the hausman test also generates a chi-squared probability and if that value is greater than the significant value (5%) then the null hypothesis is accepted. as such the rule is shown below: if p > 0.05, then accept h0 (use the random effect model) if p < 0.05 then accept h1 (use the fixed effect model) result and discussion descriptive statistics the table below (table 2), provides the descriptive statistics generated by the econometric software stata, of the research sample, which contains the number of observations, the sum of the variables, mean, standard deviation, maximum and minimum values. the mean of the dependent variable roa (%) is significantly lower than those found in khan & awan (2012) and rambajan (2011) studies which are 8.2 and 11.7 respectively. this is more in line with haniffa and hudaib’s (2006) work which found a mean roa of 2.56. the roe dependent variable is seen to have a larger mean of 18.92 which is in line with hassan & rizwans (2017) study and hada mean of 18.10, however it was much larger than nomran et al. (2018) who reported a mean of 9.09. 96 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan vol. 19, no. 2, oktober 2018: 91-100 table 2. descriptive statistics variables n sum mean sd max min roe 60 1,135 18.92 14.04 58.12 -12.50 roa 60 118.9 1.982 1.053 4.880 -0.440 lsize 60 1,000 16.67 1.182 18.33 14.66 age 60 1,790 29.83 15.06 63 6 bsize 59 579 9.814 1.786 14 7 dual 59 6 0.102 0.305 1 0 neds 52 3,976 76.47 13.87 100 44.40 ssbs 60 268 4.467 1.214 8 3 for the independent variable of board size, the mean is 9.8, suggesting that islamic banks mainly have slightly larger numbers of members on the board, compared to hannifa and hudaib (2006) whose mean was 7.94 or 8.08 for aljifri and moustafa (2007) and 7.96 as found by mashayekhi & bazaz (2008). this further demonstrates that islamic banks tend to have a higher number of members on the boardcompared to other firms within asian countries; this could be to broaden the pool of expertise. as for the independent variable of non-executive directors (%), the mean was observed to be 76.47 which was again, a much larger proportion of neds compared to hannifa and hudaib (2006) who reported 58.53, hermalin, s. and m. weisbach (1991) who found a mean of 55.90 and mehran (1995) who saw a mean of 55.00. it can therefore be established that islamic banks also have a substantially higher percentage of neds on their board, which supports the idea of agency theory by reducing the conflict of interest that insider directors may have. for the independent variable of ceo duality, this study found that the mean was 0.102 which was due to only two firms in the sample which had adual role. this was much lower than belkhir (2009) who reported a mean of 0.55 but much higher than daly & frikha (2015) who saw a mean of 0, indicating that in their sample of islamic banks, none of the banks had a dual role. furthermore, for the independent variable of shariah board size, the mean was 4.47 which was double, in comparison to what hassan & rizwan (2017) found, with a mean number of 2.09; however, it was inline with nomran et al. (2018) which reported a mean number of members of 4.82. the control variable of age this paper’s sample obtained, wasa range of ages from 6-63 years with a mean of 29.83. the sample of islamic banks seen in belkhir (2009) had a range of 2-53 with a mean age of 18.51. similarly, daly & frikha (2015) reported a range of ages to be 1-33 and a mean of 15 years. this could therefore be a factor to explain some differences witnessed within this study compared to other papers, as the mean was higher; this could indicate a better performance due to longevity within the industry. furthermore, the log islamic bank size had a mean of 16.67 which was just lower than rashid & jabeen’s (2016) study on which a mean size of 18.54 was noted, whereas akhtar et al. (2011) had a mean of 6.67 as they used smaller banks for their sample which explains the variations. pearson correlation matrix the table below demonstrates the pearson correlation matrix between all the variables included within this study. the relationship between corporate governance and financial… (syed amaar ali ausat) 97 table 3. pearson correlation matrix results roe roa lsize age bsize dual neds ssbs roe 1 roa 0.691*** 1 lsize 0.127 0.381** 1 age -0.0545 0.328* 0.374** 1 bsize 0.00235 0.161 -0.116 -0.293* 1 dual 0.453*** 0.123 0.242 -0.252 -0.383** 1 neds 0.177 0.179 0.439** -0.213 -0.0621 0.310* 1 ssbs 0.174 0.409** 0.204 0.390** 0.112 0.168 -0.265 1 the dependent variable roe does not show much correlation to most variables however, it is highly correlated to roa and ceo duality. it must be noted that since roe and roa will be used in different models, the models and the correlation between them will not influence the outcomes of this study. the lowest correlation is seen between roe and age which means that age is a good variable to use as a control. roa is also seen to be correlated to log size, shariah advisory board size and age at the 5%, 5% and 10% levels respectively. log size also shows a significant correlation to between variables of age, as well as neds at the 5% level and board size and ceo duality also show a negative correlation at the 5% level. age and bsize also see correlations that are negative which rashid et al. (2010) also report and there is a similar significance between ceo duality and neds at the 10% level. furthermore, since all the correlation coefficients are less than 0.95, there is no concern of collinearity between the variables and, as such all the independent variables can be used within the regression model (gujarati & porter, 2009). the hausman test the hausman test was conducted to check if the fixed effect or random effect model was best used for the data. the hausman test results for the roe model was 0.85 and so the roa model is 0.3374. therefore, since the p value of the hausman tests are less than 5%, it means that the random effect model is the most suitable to estimate the models. it can thereforebe said, that the effects of board size and ceo duality on firm performance provide robust results, however, none of the other independent or control variables have an impact on firm performance. regression gls results the results of the gls regression are shown in the table below for each dependent variable. the first column shows the relationship between the independent variables and firm performance as measured by roe and the second column shows the relationship between the independent variable and roa. from the first regression it can be seen that the p value of the f statistic is less than 0.05 at the significance level, therefore, it can be said that all the independent variables simultaneously explain the dependent variable, which is roa in this case.the r-squared value has been generated at 0.4333 which means that there is a 43.33% variation of roa that can be explained by variation of all the independent variables in the model. this means that the remaining 56.67% is unexplained and therefore it must be due to unmeasured potential confounding variables that are outside of the model. as shown in the random effect model, we can see that there is enough evidence at significance level of 5% for bsize to have a positive impact on roa. this means that an increase of one board member is expected to increase roa by an average of 0.155. 98 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan vol. 19, no. 2, oktober 2018: 91-100 table 4. gls estimate results return on equity (roe) return on asset (roa) constant 38.50 0.83 -0.14 -0.631 bsize 0.96 1.38 0.15 2.25 dual 21.41 1.73 0.97 0.05 neds 0.21 1.51 0.13 0.25 ssbs 0.105 0.05 0.10 0.76 lsize -4.04 -1.15 -0.14 -0.48 age 0.22 0.73 0.03 1.34 rsquared 0.3673 0.4333 number of firms 12 12 observations 60 60 furthermore, any islamic bank with ceo duality, is expected to have a higher roa, by 0.974 on average, than those that have a separate role at a significance level of 10%. as for the other independent variables and control variables, there is not enough evidence to suggest that the size of assets, age, neds and shariah advisory board size impact the roa at any significant level. from the second random effect gls regression, it is shown that the p value of the f statistic is also less than 0.05 significance level and therefore,it can also be concluded that all the independent variables simultaneously explain the dependent variable. the r-squared in this case is 0.3673 which means that 36.73% variation of roe can be explained by a variation of all the independent variables in the model. this signifies that a further 63.27% is due to other factors or variables that are not included in the model. from the random effect model related to roe, it shows that there is enough evidence to suggest a relationship between ceo duality and roe at a significance level of 10%. this means that any islamic banks with ceo duality, are expected to have a higher roe by 21.415 on average, compared to those with a separate role. the other independent variables and control variables do not see any significant relationship on a firm’s performance. conclusion the aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between corporate governance and islamic bank performance. from the findings of the research obtained, it can be concluded that corporate governance is a fundamental factor which influences the functioning of islamic banks by aligning the interests of shareholders and managers. due to the different rules and regulations that islamic banks are subject to, it is important to consider their various corporate governance policies. some past studies have concluded that there are many different corporate governance variables which determine performance, whilst the relationship between corporate governance and financial… (syed amaar ali ausat) 99 others have found little significance and argue that a different set of variables influences a firm’s performance. the methodological approach followed shows correlations and regressions to assess the significance of the four independent variables on the two dependent variables. the study produced a variety of mixed results which is similar to previous work done within this field, however, some interesting observations were nevertheless obtained. the research findings demonstrated that board of director characteristics, such as board size and particularly leadership structure (ceo duality), have indeed impacted the performance of islamic banks between the periods of 2013 and 2017. board size was seen to have the largest significance on performance measured by roa, however, ceo/chairman separation saw a significant relationship between roa and roe. however, from the random effect models it can be deduced that there are many more potential confounding factors which will also affect the performance of the islamic banks. it can also be said that islamic banks are not exempt from the effects of bad corporate governance; as stated in the beginning of the study, many islamic banks have collapsed due to poor mechanisms. moreover, different companies have different laws and approaches regarding corporate governance policies which could influence their perception of what measures are best for ensuring prolonged improved performance. some limitations encountered through the course of this study relate to the availability of data and time constraints. the data collected, initially aimed to look at the top 20 banks within the islamic banking industry worldwide, based on size of assets. however, due to different disclosure requirements and limited availability of data on databases, such as orisis, the sample was reduced to 12 banks some of which were not the largest islamic banks. furthermore, as time was limited, this reduced the number of variables included and availability of data from more than five years ago, also raised issues. upon completion of this study, further research could explore measuring performance using different variables, as well as expanding the sample and number of years looked at. this study could be expanded by increasing the sample size from 12 to 20, to expand the number of years looked atand to use larger, more established islamic banks. as well as the variables included in 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(2006). corporate governance in south africa: a bellwether for the continent? corporate governance: an international review, 14(5), 504–512. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 1, april 2017, hlm. 62-70 doi: 10.18196/jesp.18.1.3954 analisis dan evaluasi dampak dana alokasi khusus terhadap indikator kinerja pembangunan di daerah studi kasus kabupaten-kota 2003-2013 didi nuryadin, sri suharsih jurusan ilmu ekonomi fakultas ekonomi upn veteran yogyakarta email korespondensi: didinuryadin@gmail.com naskah diterima: januari 2017; disetujui: april 2017 abstract: in the context of financial relations between the central and local governments, the central government has now allocated a balancing fund (dana perimbangan) to finance local needs in order to support the implementation of decentralization of governance and development as a form of political will to reform and democratize. the aim of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of dak allocation for financial year 2003-2013 and to analyze the impact of dana alokasi khusus (dak) allocation from 2003 to 2013 on various development indicators in the regions (districts / cities). dak transfer design is the main cause of various issues related to the implementation of dak. in addition, the problem of dak allocation mechanisms in the determination of programs and activities, the calculation and use of dak, budgeting and disbursement of dak, reporting and monitoring and evaluation of dak. dak, as one type of balancing fund, has a positive impact on the fiscal capacity of the region, especially the district /city. in addition to regional fiscal capacity, dak also plays a role in reducing the level of fiscal gap between districts / cities during the period 2003-2007. the result show that dak allocation (in total) is not significant influence to pdrb per capita of regency / city. in conclusion, dak has not had a significant impact on public services and public welfare. this is because the direction of using dak is not directly used to "build", but only to "maintain". therefore, dak is considered not effective enough in an effort to achieve the national priority target. keywords: balancing fund, decentralization, public welfare jel classifications: h76, h70, i30 abstrak: dalam konteks hubungan keuangan antara pusat dan daerah, pemerintah pusat saat ini telah mengalokasikan dana perimbangan (dp) untuk membiayai kebutuhan daerah dalam rangka mendukung pelaksanaan desentralisasi pemerintahan dan pembangunan sebagai wujud nyata political will pemerintah untuk melakukan reformasi dan demokratisasi. tujuan penelitian ini untuk melakukan evaluasi terhadap efektivitas pengalokasian dak ta 2003-2013 dan menganalisis dampak alokasi dak 2003 2013 terhadap berbagai indikator pembangunan di daerah (kabupaten/kota). desain transfer dak merupakan permasalahan utama terkait pelaksanaan dak. selain itu, permasalahan-permasalahan juga terlihat dalam mekanisme pengalokasian dak, yaitu dalam hal penetapan program dan kegiatan, pengitungan dan penggunaan dak, penganggaran dan penyaluran dak, pelaporan dan monitoring serta evaluasi dari dak. dak, sebagai salah satu jenis dana perimbangan berdampak positif terhadap kemampuan fiskal daerah. selain terhadap kemampuan fiskal daerah, dak juga berperan dalam mengurangi tingkat kesenjangan fiskal antar kabupaten/kota selama periode tahun 2003-2007. hasil analisa menunjukkan bahwa alokasi dak (secara total) tidak signifikan berpengaruh terhadap pdrb per kapita kabupaten/kota. oleh karena itu, dapat disimpulkan bahwa dak belum memberikan dampak yang signifikan terhadap pelayanan publik dan kesejahteraan masyarakat, karena arah penggunaan dak belum secara langsung digunakan untuk ”membangun”, namun hanya untuk ”memelihara”. sehingga dak dinilai belum cukup efektif untuk mencapai sasaran prioritas nasional. kata kunci: dana perimbangan, desentralisasi, kesejahteraan masyarakat klasifikasi jel: h76, h70, i30 analisis dan evaluasi dampak dana alokasi khusus… (didi nuryadin, sri suharsih) 63 pendahuluan dalam konteks hubungan keuangan antara pusat dan daerah, pemerintah pusat saat ini telah mengalokasikan dana perimbangan (dp) untuk membiayai kebutuhan daerah dalam rangka mendukung pelaksanaan desentralisasi pemerintahan dan pembangunan sebagai wujud nyata political will pemerintah untuk melakukan reformasi dan demokratisasi. sesuai dengan undang-undang nomor 32 tahun 2004 tentang pemerintahan daerah, dana perimbangan dibagi dalam tiga kelompok yaitu dana alokasi umum (dau), dana alokasi khusus (dak) dan dana bagi hasil (dbh). selain dana perimbangan, pemerintah pusat juga mengalokasikan dana otonomi khusus (otsus) dan dana penyesuaian sebagai komponen belanja daerah dalam anggaran penerimaan dan belanja negara (apbn). kebijakan alokasi dak diberikan sebagai salah satu cara untuk mengakomodasi berbagai kebutuhan prioritas nasional dan merupakan urusan daerah, namun tidak atau belum tertampung dalam formulasi dau. oleh karena itu, kebijakan alokasi dak diprioritas-utamakan untuk membantu daerah dengan kemampuan keuangan di bawah ratarata nasional (dalam hal ini menjadi kriteria umum daerah penerima dak). selain itu, kebijakan alokasi dak juga diprioritaskan untuk menunjang percepatan pembangunan daerah melalui pembangunan sarana dan prasarana di daerah yang berstatus otonomi khusus (otsus) seperti papua (mencakup provinsi papua dan provinsi papua barat), daerah pesisir dan pulau-pulau kecil, daerah perbatasan dengan negara lain, daerah tertinggal/terpencil, daerah rawan banjir/longsor, daerah yang masuk kategori daerah ketahanan pangan dan pariwisata, dan lain-lainnya. beberapa maksud lain dari alokasi dak antara lain adalah untuk mendorong penyediaan lapangan kerja, membantu mengurangi jumlah penduduk miskin, dan mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah. beberapa prioritas lanjutan (selain kriteria umum) dari alokasi dak tersebut, biasanya ditetapkan menjadi kriteria khusus dalam alokasi dak. berdasarkan hasil review, kajian, dan fasilitasi di beberapa daerah yang dilakukan oleh badan perencanaan pembangunan nasional (bappenas, 2011), pengelolaan dak selama delapan tahun terakhir (tahun 20032011) masih dihadapkan dengan beberapa permasalahan yang berkaitan dengan aspek keuangan, teknis, kelembagaan, dan tata kelola pemerintahan yang baik (good governance). dalam aspek keuangan, permasalahan utama adalah belum optimalnya kinerja dak bagi daerah karena ketidaksesuaian (mismatch) antara besaran alokasi dengan kebutuhan daerah. dalam aspek teknis, terdapat permasalahan yang berkaitan dengan masih belum optimalnya kebijakan teknis dak. sampai saat ini masih belum ada sasaran/target yang jelas, yang ingin dicapai dengan pelaksanaan dak dalam periode waktu tertentu. dalam aspek kelembagaan, terdapat permasalahan yang berkaitan dengan belum mantap dan optimalnya koordinasi kelembagaan antara pusat dan daerah, belum terbentuknya tim koordinasi di pusat dan provinsi, serta belum optimalnya kinerja tim koordinasi di kabupaten/kota. dalam aspek tata kepemerintahan yang baik (good governance) terdapat permasalahan yang berkaitan dengan masih rendahnya kinerja penerapan prinsip transparansi, akuntabilitas, dan partisipasi dalam pengelolaan dak. penyediaan data dan informasi teknis yang diperlukan dalam perhitungan alokasi dak juga masih lemah. sehubungan dengan berbagai permasalahan tersebut maka diperlukan berbagai upaya untuk memperbaiki kualitas seluruh proses, siklus, dan mekanisme pengelolaan dak sejak dari perumusan kebijakan, perencanaan, penganggaran, pelaksanaan, pemantauan, dan evaluasi. 64 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 1, april 2017: 62-70 terkait dengan hal tersebut pula, diperlukan evalusai dari dampak alokasi dak terhadap kinerja perekonomian daerah, terutama kabupaten/kota selama periode tahun 20032013. metode penelitian penelitian analisis dan evaluasi dampak dak terhadap kinerja pembangunan daerah ini dilaksanakan dengan cakupan pemerintah daerah seluruh indonesia, khususnya pemerintah daerah kabupaten/kota dan selama periode tahun 2003-2013. monitoring dan evaluasi coba dilakukan terhadap seluruh rangkaian regulasi/kebijakan dan pelaksanaan dak selama periode tersebut. untuk melaksanakan evaluasi secara nasional, dalam penyusunan evaluasi ini akan digunakan data-data sekunder dari berbagai sumber yang berwenang terkait dan juga pelaksanaan desk study/review regulasi dan kebijakan yang terkait dengan pelaksanaan dak. desk study/review terhadap berbagai kebijakan dan regulasi yang terkait dengan dak merupakan kegiatan awal yang perlu dilakukan terlebih dahulu untuk selanjutnya dapat dianalisis lebih lanjut, baik dari sisi konsistensi kebijakan dan regulasi, maupun analisis lebih lanjut melalui analisa dampak dan studi di lapangan. desk study/review dan observasi diperlukan dalam rangka pelaksanaan monitoring dak. evaluasi secara nasional terhadap keseluruhan pemerintah daerah dan setiap bidang nantinya juga dilakukan dengan analisis kuantitatif, yaitu berupa statistik deskriptif dan statistik inferensia (permodelan ekonometrika) untuk mengidentifikasi berbagai hal yang terkait dengan pengalokasian dak, karakteristik wilayah, dampak dari pengalokasian dak, dan tujuantujuan dari pelaksanaan dak. model ekonometrik yang feasible digunakan adalah model cross-section untuk analisis per tahun dan per bidang. tahapan selanjutnya dari penelitian analisis dan evaluasi dampak alokasi dak adalah menganalisis hasil, manfaat, dan dampak dari pengalokasian dak terhadap daerah selama periode tahun tahun 20032013. analisa dilakukan dengan menggunakan metode statistik deskriptif dan kuantitatif, yaitu permodelan ekonometrika untuk menelah dampak dak secara makro. dengan melihat bidang-bidang pengalokasian dak, indikator arah penggunaan alokasi dak, dan indikator kinerja pemerintah daerah, yang akan diterapkan untuk seluruh daerah (dalam hal ini kabupaten/kota) dan karena jumlah kabupaten/kota mengalami perubahan dari waktu ke waktu selama periode tahun 20032013, maka model ekonometrika yang tepat digunakan adalah model analisa regresi crosssection (kerat-lintang) yang dilakukan untuk setiap tahun dan setiap bidang. model umum yang digunakan untuk menganalisa dampak langsung dari alokasi dak pada setiap bidang dan setiap tahun adalah: yr = f (dakr, x1r, x2r, .......) dimana: yr : indikator arah penggunaan dak di suatu bidang di suatu daerah dakr : alokasi dak di suatu bidang di suatu daerah x1r, x2r...: variabel variabel lain yang diduga ikut mempengaruhi yr r : daerah hampir sama dengan model di atas, model umum yang digunakan untuk mengalisa dampak tidak langsung dari alokasi dak pada setiap bidang dan setiap tahun adalah: zr = f (dakr, w1r, w2r, ....) dimana: zr : indikator kinerja pemerintah daerah sesuai bidang yang terkait di suatu daerah dakr : alokasi dak di suatu bidang di suatu analisis dan evaluasi dampak dana alokasi khusus… (didi nuryadin, sri suharsih) 65 daerah w1r, w2r, ....: variabel-variabel lain yang diduga ikut mempengaruhi zr r : daerah metode analisis yang dilakukan menggunakan data panel, yakni gabungan data runtut waktu (times series) dan cross section sampel kabupaten/kota di indonesia. evaluasi dampak dak terhadap kinerja pemerintah daerah alokasi dak dari waktu ke waktu mengalami peningkatan secara nyata dari waktu ke waktu, baik berdasarkan nilai total alokasi, jumlah bidang alokasi, jumlah daerah penerima, dan rata-rata nilainya per daerah penerimanya. alokasi dak yang mengalami peningkatan tersebut sebagian besar merupakan alokasi dak yang ditujukan untuk kabupaten/kota. sementara itu, alokasi dak untuk provinsi relatif kecil dibandingkan alokasi dak untuk kabupaten/kota dan tidak konsisten dari waktu ke waktu. oleh karena itu, nantinya analisa dampak nantinya difokuskan pada analisa dampak dak di kabupaten/kota terhadap kondisi fiskal daerah kabupaten/kota dan analisa dampak dak di kabupaten/kota terhadap kinerja infrastruktur kabupaten/kota menurut bidang alokasi dak. secara umum, temuan-temuan penting (key findings) dari analisis regulasi dan kebijakan dak dapat dibagi dalam empat kelompok besar yaitu: a. belum terlihat adanya konsistensi, kesinkronisasian, dan kesinergian antar regulasi dan kebijakan terkait dak; b. adanya ketidaktepatan dalam desain teknis dan keuangan dak meliputi alokasi, kebutuhan, penggunaan (bidang) dan sasaran (wilayah) terkait dengan kriteria pengalokasian dak; c. masih terlihat banyaknya kelemahan dalam pengaturan administrasi dan kelembagaan meliputi perencanaan, koordinasi, pelaksanaan, pelaporan, dan pemantauan pelaksanaan dak; dan d. rendahnya aspek good governance, meliputi transparansi, partisipasi, dan akuntabilitas kegiatan-kegiatan dalam pelaksanaan dak. sementara itu, beberapa hal utama dalam menganalisa dampak dari dak dengan menggunakan model ekonometrika adalah: model ekonometrika yang digunakan adalah model analisa cross section terkait dengan ketersediaan data, data variabel dampak yang digunakan adalah data kabupaten/kota pada tahun 2002 (kondisi awal) sampai dengan 2005 (kondisi akhir) dan analisa dampak yang dapat dilakukan juga tidak seluruhnya seperti dalam bidang alokasi dak, dan juga, data dak yang digunakan adalah data dak tahun 2003 sampai dengan 2005 karena modelnya adalah cross section, maka data yang digunakan adalah data perubahan dari kondisi tahun 2002 (kondisi awal) sampai tahun 2005 (kondisi akhir) untuk mengatasi permasalahan penambahan observasi kabupaten/kota akibat pemekaran, dilakukan penyesuaian dengan kondisi data tahun 2002 menjadi 363 kabupaten/kota dan pengunaan dummy variable untuk pemekaran analisa dampak langsung yang dilakukan mencakup bidang pendidikan, kesehatan, dan infratsruktur (jalan dan irigasi) analisa dampak tidak langsung dilakukan terhadap pdrb per kapita variabel penjelas tambahan berupa karakteristik daerah diwujudkan dalam bentuk dummy variable sementara itu, untuk model ekonoemtrika, fungsi umumnnya adalah sebegai berikut: 1. analisa dampak langsung: yk = f (dakk, daktot-dakk, pad, dau, bhp, bhbp, llps, dkk, djb, dmekar) 2. analisa dampak tidak langsung: pdrbkap= f (daktot, pad, dau, bhp, bhbp, llps, dkk, djb, dmekar), dimana: 66 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 1, april 2017: 62-70 yk :indikator kinerja bidang k (terkait arah penggunaan dak) dakk : alokasi dak di bidang k daktot: total alokasi dak (seluruh bidang) pad :pendapatan asli daerah dau : dana alokasi umum bhp : bagi hasil pajak bhbp :bagi hasil bukan pajak llps : lain-lain pendapatan yang sah dkk :dummy kabupaten/ kota (kabupaten=0, kota=1) djb : dummy jawabali (kabupaten/kota di luar jawabali=0, di jawa-bali=1) dmekar : dummy pemekaran (kabupaten/kota nondimekarkan=0, dimekarkan=1) indikator-indikator yang digunakan dalam pengolahan model ekonometrika untuk analisa dampak dari dak adalah: a. indikator pendidikan: perubahan jumlah sd negeri dan perubahan jarak desa ke sd b. indikator kesehatan: perubahan jumlah puskesmas, perubahan jumlah puskesmas pembantu, perubahan jarak desa ke puskesmas, dan perubahan jarak desa ke puskesmas pembantu c. indikator infrastruktur jalan: rasio panjang jalan mantap terhadap panjang jalan total, dan perubahan jumlah desa berjalan aspal d. indikator infrastruktur irigasi: perubahan lahan sawah beririgasi e. indikator kesejahteraan rata-rata pdrb per kapita atas dasar harga konstan dengan menggunakan kerangka model ekonometrika dan indikator-indikator tersebut, dan dikarenakan penggunaan dak yang sesuai degan pmk/kmk dan juknis adalah umumnya untuk pemeliharaan rutin, pemeliharaan berkala, dan peningkatan/pembangunan skala kecil, maka analisa kuantitatif dampak dak terhadap kinerja infrastruktur menurut bidang alokasi dak diperkirakan akan mengalami bias. hal tersebut dibuktikan dengan contoh penggunaan alokasi dak bidang infrastruktur di departemen pekerjaan umum (pu) selama periode tahun 2003-2007. walaupun demikian, analisa kuantitatif dampak dak terhadap kinerja infrastruktur menurut bidang alokasi dak dengan menggunakan model ekonometrika tetap digunakan untuk membuktikan kebenaran perkiraan tersebut. mengapa tidak mengubah kerangka indikator yang digunakan dalam pengolahan model ekonometrika untuk analisa dampak dari dak? hal tersebut dikarenakan keterbatasan ketersediaan dari data yang ada terkait dengan kualitas infrastruktur. data tersebut sangat jarang tersedia, dan apabilapun tersedia, umumnya data tersebut tidak lengkap antar daerahnya dan berbeda antar tahun serta dalam kondisi yang tidak up-date. hasil pengolahan analisa dampak dak dengan menggunakan model ekonometrika secara lengkap dan rinci dapat dilihat dalam lampiran tulisan ini. secara umum, hasil dari pengolahan dampak dak dengan menggunakan model ekonometrika adalah: hasil analisa dampak langsung menunjukkan pengaruh (beberapa ada yang positif, dan juga negatif) yang tidak signifikan dari alokasi dari alokasi dak di masing-masing bidang terhadap indikator masing-masing bidang; analisa dampak tidak langsung menunjukkan juga bahwa alokasi dak (secara total) tidak signifikan berpengaruh terhadap pdrb per kapita kabupaten/kota; dan secara umum, dapat disimpulkan bahwa dak, baik menurut alokasi bidang maupun secara total, belum memberikan dampak yang signifikan terhadap pelayanan publik dan kesejahteraan masyarakat. hasil yang menunjukkan tidak analisis dan evaluasi dampak dana alokasi khusus… (didi nuryadin, sri suharsih) 67 signifikannya pengaruh dak terhadap kinerja pelayanan publik dan kesejahteraan, terjadi dimungkinkan disebabkan oleh: kurang baiknya manajemen pengelolaan dak; ketidaktepatan alokasi dak, baik menurut wilayah, besaran, maupun arah penggunaannya di masing-masing bidang alokasi; tidak fokusnya pengalokasian dak pada fungsi-fungsi utama, terutama fungsi dari pemerintahan sendiri; relatif kecilnya nilai alokasi dak; dan atau penggunaan dak bukan ditujukan untuk mencapai indikator-indikator tersebut (yang digunakan sebagai variabel terikat (dependent variable). simpulan beberapa kesimpulan yang dapat diambil dari pelaksanaan evaluasi ini antara lain adalah: design transfer dak merupakan akar permasalahan utama dari berbagai permasalahan terkait pelaksanaan dak. hal tersebut terlihat dari permasalahan baik dalam aspek aspek regulasi dan kebijakan, aspek teknis dan keuangan, aspek administrasi dan kelembagaan, maupun dalam aspek tata kelola. selain itu, permasalahan-permasalahan juga terlihat dalam mekanisme pengalokasian dak, yaitu dalam hal penetapan program dan kegiatan, pengitungan dan penggunaan dak, penganggaran dan penyaluran dak, dan pelaporan serta monitoring dan evaluasi dari dak; dak, sebagai salah satu jenis dana perimbangan, berdampak positif terhadap kemampuan fiskal daerah, khususnya kabupaten/kota. dampak tersebut terlihat dari proporsi dak terhadap pendapatan dan belanja dalam apbd seluruh kabupaten/kota yang meningkat. selain terhadap kemampuan fiskal daerah, dak juga berperan dalam mengurangi tingkat kesenjangan fiskal antar kabupaten/kota selama periode tahun 2003-2007; hasil analisa dampak langsung menunjukkan pengaruh (beberapa ada yang positif, dan juga negatif) yang tidak signifikan dari alokasi dari alokasi dak di masing-masing bidang terhadap indikator masing-masing bidang. analisa dampak tidak langsung menunjukkan juga bahwa alokasi dak (secara total) tidak signifikan berpengaruh terhadap pdrb per kapita kabupaten/kota. oleh karena itu, secara u m u m , da pa t d i s i m p u l k a n b a h wa d a k , ba ik menurut alokasi bidang maupun secara total, belum memberikan dampak yang signifikan terhadap pelayanan publik dan kesejahteraan masyarakat. hal ini dikarenakan memang arah penggunaan dak yang memang tidak atau belum secara langsung digunakan untuk ”membangun”, namun hanya untuk ”memelihara”. oleh karena itu, dak dirasa belum cukup efektif dalam upaya mencapai sasaran prioritas nasional yang menjadi bagian dari urusan daerah; dan dari sisi kualitas, manfaat dan dampak di masing-masing bidang dapat dikatakan hasil kegiatan dak dalam persepsi responden adalah „baik‟. hal ini ditunjukkan oleh proporsi yang cukup besar untuk dua pilihan skala tertinggi. namun dari sisi kecukupan kuantitas, distribusi jawaban lebih „ke kiri‟ (kurang dan cukup memadai). hasil ini mengindikasikan bahwa masyarakat (yang diwakili penerima manfaat di 6 daerah sampel): membutuhkan dan merasakan manfaat kegiatan dak di masing-masing bidang dan hal ini selaras dengan perilaku konsumsi atas barang publik (extensive consumption). namun, hasil ini juga perlu catatan khusus, yakni sangat dimungkinkan responden tidak memiliki cukup informasi untuk memilah apakah kegiatan tersebut 68 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 1, april 2017: 62-70 didanai oleh dak atau yang lain (apbd). dengan kata lain, esensi pelaksanaan dak dirasakan cukup bermanfaat bagi daerah, walaupun belum secara jelas keefektifannya, khususnya masyarakat di sekitar lokasi pelaksanaan kegiatan dak. beberapa rekomendasi kebijakan yang dapat diberikan dari hasil pelaksanaan analisis dan evaluasi dak ini antara lain adalah: prioritas nasional perlu ditentukan target dan sasarannya secara jelas, yang bila didasarkan atas optimalitas ekonomi sebagai satu kesatuan, fungsi perencanaan ekonomi nasional perlu dimantapkan sebagai landasan penentuan prioritas. dalam konteks ini salah satu kegiatan ialah melakukan klassifikasi spasial barang dan pelayanan publik, untuk melengkapi yang sekarang tertulis dalam undangundang nomor 32 tahun 2004. dengan tegas orang dapat mengambil kesimpulan bahwa memang jumlah barang publik nasional akan meningkat dari yang ada dalam undang-undang tadi. proyek dak hendaknya merupakan turunan dari prioritas yang seyogyanya telah termasuk dalam rkp. secara materil prioritas nasional hendaknya merupakan bagian dari yang secara hakiki termasuk dalam barang publik nasional, tetapi secara faktual masuk dalam urusan daerah. memfokuskan ulang (“refocusing”) bidang penerima dak. secara umum, dak berfokus pada bidang infrastruktur (jalan, irigasi, dan air bersih) dan kesra (pendidikan dan kesehatan). namun seiring waktu, fokus ini nampak mengalami pergeseran. fokus pada bidang kesra nampak semakin menguat, namun fokus pada bidang infrastruktur justru semakin memudar. ke depan, dibutuhkan fokus ulang dan pembatasan bidang yang akan mendapatkan alokasi dak. upaya “refocusing” lain yang relevan adalah dengan mempercepat pengalihan dana dekonsentrasi dan tugas pembantuan menjadi dak. potensi dak sebagai salah satu sumber pembiayaan pembangunan infrastruktur di tingkat lokal dapat ditingkatkan secara signifikan dengan mempercepat pengalihan dana dekonsentrasi dan tugas pembantuan menjadi dak ini. akomodasi kebijakan “refocusing” dak ini membutuhkan kebijakan lain yang mengikutinya seperti kerangka anggaran jangka menengah (mtef/mid-term expedinture framework), “earmarking” untuk pembangunan infrastruktur dari semua peningkatan penerimaan pajak daerah maupun transfer dari pusat, serta kerangka pendanaan lain seperti melalui obligasi daerah dan perbaikan efisiensi belanja publik di tingkat lokal. perlu ada penegasan tentang pasal 162 dalam undang-undang nomor 3 tahun 2004 di mana daerah diberi peluang mengajukan usulan proyek yang didanai dak. walaupun secara de facto praktek usulan daerah, baik disampaikan melalui saluran lembaga legislatif ataupun departemen teknis atau cara lain, penegasan ini perlu ditetapkan sebab undang -undang nomor 33 tahun 2004 pasal 39 tidak mencantumkannya, apalagi tidak menyentuh adanya peran provinsi dalam pengusulan kegiatan dak. penyederhanaan kriteria dan mekanisme serta fleksibilitas dari alokasi dak. termasuk dalam hal ini tentang penghindaran adanya perbedaan persepsi dari program dak seperti pada butir terdahulu. screening proyek seharusnya berada di pusat tetapi daerah telah mengetahui kriteria pemilihan sehingga merupakan bagian dari transparansi dari proses alokasi. sistem demikian akan sekaligus mengurangi persepsi berlakunya favoritism dalam alokasi tersebut. analisis dan evaluasi dampak dana alokasi khusus… (didi nuryadin, sri suharsih) 69 daftar pustaka badan perencanaan pembangunan nasional, 2006, pengelolaan dana alokasi khusus, bappenas, jakarta. badan perencanaan pembangunan nasional, 2006, pengolahan dan analisis laporan monitoring pelaksanaan dana alokasi khusus, bappenas, jakarta. badan pusat statistik, 2003, data hasil statistik potensi desa (podes) tahun 2002, bps, jakarta. badan pusat statistik, 2007, pdrb kabupaten/kota tahun 2000-2006, bps, jakarta. badan pusat statistik, 2007, pdrb provinsiprovinsi di indonesia menurut lapangan usaha tahun 2000-2006, bps, jakarta. badan pusat statistik, 2006, data hasil statistik potensi desa (podes) tahun 2005, bps, jakarta. bird, richard, m. dan vailancourt, f. 2000, desentralisasi fiskal di negara-negara berkembang, pt gramedia pustaka utama, jakarta. brodjonegoro, bambang p.s., 2006, desentralisasi sebagai kebijakan fundamental untuk mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional dan mengurangi kesenjangan antardaerah di indonesia, pidato pada upacara pengukuhan sebagai guru besar tetap dalam bidang ilmu ekonomi, fakultas ekonomi universitas indonesia, 18 maret 2006, depok. departemen keuangan ri, direktorat jenderal perimbangan keuangan, 2007, pengaliahan dana dekonsentrasi dan tugas pembantuan menjadi dak, materi presentasi pada workshop pengalihan dana dekonsentrasi dan tugas pembantuan menjadi dak di hotel quality jakarta, 28 agustus 2007, jakarta. departemen keuangan ri, direktorat jenderal perimbangan keuangan, 2008, data apbd dan dana perimbangan tahun 2001-2007, departemen keuangan jakarta. departemen keuangan ri, 2007, indonesia’s budget statistics 2002-2008, departemen keuangan ri, jakarta. departemen pekerjaan umum, direktorat jenderal bina marga, 2007, pengelolaan dana dekonsentrasi dan dana tugas per(m)bantuan bidang infrastruktur sub bidang jalan, materi presentasi pada workshop pengalihan dana dekonsentrasi dan tugas pembantuan menjadi dak di hotel quality jakarta, 28 agustus 2007, jakarta. departemen pendidikan nasional ri, direktorat jenderal manajemen dikdasmen, 2007, pengelolaan dana dekonsentrasi dan tugas pembantuan, materi presentasi pada workshop pengalihan dana dekonsentrasi dan tugas pembantuan menjadi dak di hotel quality jakarta, 28 agustus 2007, jakarta. djohermansyah, 2005, pembagian kewenangan antar pemerintah, pemerintah propinsi, dan pemerintah kabupaten/kota, makalah disampaikan dalam semiloka evaluasi kebijakan dana dekonsentrasi, hotel borobudur, 2-3 juni 2005, departemen keuangan ri, jakarta. kementerian ppn/bappenas, deputi bidang pengembangan regional dan otonomi daerah, 2007, dana dekonsentrasi dan dana tugas pembantuan: konsep, isu, & agenda, materi presentasi pada workshop pengalihan dana dekonsentrasi dan tugas pembantuan menjadi dak di hotel quality jakarta, 28 agustus 2007, jakarta. kuncoro, m., 2004, otonomi daerah: reformasi, perencanaan, strategi dan peluang, jakarta: penerbit erlangga. lembaga penelitian smeru, 2007, mekanisme dan penggunaan dak, smeru, jakarta. pemerintah republik indonesia, 2004, undang 70 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 1, april 2017: 62-70 undang no. 32/2004 tentang pemerintahan daerah, www.indonesia.go.id, diunduh 13 september 2015. pemerintah republik indonesia, 2004, undangundang no. 33/2004 tentang perimbangan keuangan pemerintah pusat dan pemerintah daerah, www.indonesia.go.id, diunduh 13 september 2015. pemerintah republik indonesia, 2005, peraturan pemerintah no. 55/2005 tentang dana perimbangan, www.indonesia.go.id, diunduh 13 mei 2016. pemerintah republik indonesia, 2007, peraturan pemerintah no. 38/2007 tentang pembagian urusan pemerintahan antara pemerintah, pemerintahan provinsi, dan pemerintahan kabupaten/kota, www.indonesia.go.id, diunduh 13 mei 2016. richardson, harry w., 1978, urban economics, the drydes press, hinsdale, illinois, usa. sidik, m. 2002, “format hubungan keuangan pemerintah pusat dan daerah yang mengacu pada pencapaian tujuan nasional”, makalah seminar nasional: public sector scrorecard. 17-18 april 2002, djpkpd ri, jakarta. simanjuntak, robert a., 2002, transfer pusat ke daerah: konsep dan praktik di beberapa negara dalam machfud sidik dkk. (eds.),” dana alokasi umum (dau): konsep, hambatan, dan prospek di era otonomi daerah”. jakarta: penerbit buku kompas. http://www.indonesia.go.id/ http://www.indonesia.go.id/ http://www.indonesia.go.id/ http://www.indonesia.go.id/ jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 22 nomor 2, oktober 2021 article type: research paper do resource-rich provinces perform lower democratization progress? estimating oil impact on democracy indicators in indonesia rian hilmawan abstract: this study examined whether oil dependence affected democracy quality by referring to provincial-level data in indonesia. while physical quantity production was used to measure oil dependence, democracy was measured based on the indonesian democracy index (idi). static panel data analysis was employed to control unobserved time-invariant characteristics of each province, including a robust driscoll and kraay (d-k) standard error model for the general forms of crosssectional dependence when dealing with panel observation. the results showed that oil-dependent provinces tended not to have weak democratic qualities. the effects were also robust when democracy was separated into three main elements of the idi: political rights, civil liberties, and democratic institutions, or when an alternative measure of dependency was used. interestingly, this study found that oil dependence had a stronger effect on democracy in provinces with a lack of oil than in sumatra and kalimantan, globally known as dominant resource locations. keywords: oil; democracy; education; province; indonesia jel classification: o13; d72 introduction oil impact has long been understood to penetrate a country’s economy substantially. regardless of whether oil extraction activities may hinder or help the nation’s welfare, attention has now moved to examine whether a country’s oil dependence has a strong link with democratic progress. this issue initially emerged in countries primarily located in the middle east and north africa, where oil wealth was seen as a factor that stimulated authoritarianism (anderson, 1987; anderson, 1995). a study by ross (2001) formally hypothesized a relationship focusing on a country’s dependence on the oil sector. ross (2001) found that oil-reliant nations, including minerals, tended to have lower quality in democracy. therefore, this paper tested the proposed hypothesis by selecting indonesia, a developing and young democratic country, as a special case study. there are two reasons why indonesia should be particularly considered. first, indonesia’s economy historically stems from oil-based income contributions. oil production was carried out commercially in the 1970s following the successful oil reserves discovery in several sumatra and affiliation: department of economics, faculty of economics and business, universitas mulawarman, east kalimantan, indonesia *correspondence: rian.hilmawan@feb.unmul.ac.id this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v22i2.9522 citation: hilmawan, r. (2021). do resourcerich provinces perform lower democratization progress? estimating oil impact on democracy indicators in indonesia. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 22(2), 256-271. article history received: 07 aug 2020 revised: 26 aug 2020 02 jul 2021 accepted: 11 sep 2021 https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?hl=en&user=eultjv4aaaaj https://feb.unmul.ac.id/web-profil-ilmuekonomi.html https://feb.unmul.ac.id/web-profil-ilmuekonomi.html https://feb.unmul.ac.id/web-profil-ilmuekonomi.html https://feb.unmul.ac.id/web-profil-ilmuekonomi.html mailto:rian.hilmawan@feb.unmul.ac.id http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/9522 https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v22i1.9522&domain=pdf hilmawan do resource-rich provinces perform lower democratization progress? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 257 kalimantan islands locations, which later became the forerunners of indonesia’s giant oil fields.1 the contribution of oil production to national income is still crucial to this day, although oil production experienced a gradual decrease over time. it has been proven that the oil reserves may last approximately more than 50 years as efforts to invest in deep-water explorations have been highly devoted.2 secondly, indonesia adhered to a democratic system across national and regional (provinces and districts) areas for almost two decades. direct presidential election initially started in 2004 and was rapidly echoed by the direct election of regional heads in local government in 2005. these events were triggered by the decentralization policy that allowed local governments to execute development planning, budgeting, and providing public service to local citizens. although the democratic climate seems to blossom, no data were available to monitor development progress on this aspect, making it hard to associate the effects of whether oil wealth improves the practicality of democracy in a decentralized area. only since 2009, the indonesian democracy index (idi) has been officially released annually, enabling researchers to verify the progress of local democracy across provinces. the available timeframe of these exogenous events allows testing the extent to which democratic progress is affected by activities associated with hydrocarbon resources. as oil resources are randomly distributed across indonesia’s provinces (each province has several districts), some regions with oil wealth have become dependent on resourcebased economic sectors. meanwhile, regions that have less or no oil reserves will rely on sectors unrelated to non-renewable resources. following ross’s (2001) study and foreshadowing it to indonesia’s decentralization movement, this research examined whether oil affects democracy and oil-dependent oversight produced a devastating effect on democracy at the provincial level. as the study using within-country analysis on this field is still lacking, this paper contributes to the literature by providing empirical investigations. moreover, oil is often seen as a valuable resource capital that should, by default, help to improve a country’s economy or achieve better development progress. the positive effect of oil on national income has been found in several cross-country studies, for example, alexeev and conrad (2011), brunnschweiler (2008), brunnschweiler and bulte (2008), and libman (2013). despite the blessing consequence that natural resources can contribute, researchers have found that countries that depended highly on the mining sector, in general, were more likely to have lower development income and outcomes (sachs & warner, 2001; papyrakis & gerlagh, 2004). another striking finding of the detrimental effect of oil is that oil wealth retards a country’s democracy quality. a seminal article published by ross (2001) initially provided 1 indonesia is an archipelago country with more than 17,000 islands in total. the six major islands, however, are java, sumatra, kalimantan, sulawesi, maluku and east regions, and papua. 2 annual report of indonesian oil and gas, 2018. available from https://migas.esdm.go.id/uploads/uploads/files/laporan-tahunan/laptah-migas-2018---final.pdf hilmawan do resource-rich provinces perform lower democratization progress? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 258 empirical evidence as to why oil is bad for democratic development. ross (2001) utilizing country-level data, measured democracy level using a scale ranging from 0 to 10, with the highest value indicating the most democratic country.3 oil dependence was employed as the key variable, measured as the share of the aggregate export-value of mining-based fuels (petroleum, gas, and coal) in total gdp. focusing on the period between 1971 and 1977, with a pooled ols using a cross-sectional data set, ross (2001) found that increased oil dependence, including minerals, tended to worsen democracy quality. one might argue that cross-country investigations could be biased due to different development levels between developed and developing countries or between africamiddle east versus non-africa-middle east countries. ross (2001) also addressed this possibility by controlling the locational effects of countries in the middle east and subsaharan africa or distinguishing them according to the country size (i.e., large and small states), both using binary variables. again, the point estimates for oil and minerals were still significantly negative, although they had been reduced when additional control variables were included. referring to why oil hinders democracy in an oil-rich country, ross (2001) argued that rentier and repression effects had weakened the process towards better civil freedom and political rights. for example, a higher mineral revenues proportion causes the government to build their internal security, enabling them to reduce or block people’s demands for democracy. this reason refers to the repression effect. the second case is caused by the rentier effect. in oil-wealthy states, the dominant revenues come from oil extraction rather than citizens’ taxation. it provides an incentive for the country’s residents to put in less effort in paying taxes. as a result, citizens’ demands on the government are reduced, making the government less dependent on its citizens, weakening checks and balances processes between the two actors, yet deteriorating democracy. some studies that support ross’s (2001) paper are jensen and wanthecekon (2004), aslaksen (2010), and anyanwu and erhijakpor (2014). for example, jensen and wanthecekon (2004) focused on 46 countries in sub-saharan africa after the 1960-1995 period. the authors utilized political regime as a proxy for democracy as ross (2001) did with some scale modifications. using fixed-effects analysis, they found that oil and mineral exports, as a share of merchandise exports, negatively impacted democracy in africa, even after controlling dummies for the historical colony. aslaksen (2010) regressed democracy on the share of oil in total gdp using pooled crosssectional ols regression and found that oil share harmed political rights. the negative impact persisted in whether democracy infrequently regressed, whether per capita income, population, and education were included, or whether the fixed-effects and dynamic panel model were also applied. anyanwu and erhijakpor (2014) compared the 3 this measure was modified from polity scores published by marshall and jaggers (2005). this measure reflects the dimensions of public participation in political aspects (political rights) including the openness and competitiveness of executive recruitment. the scores originally ranged from -10 to 10, with higher scores indicating better quality of democratic institutions. hilmawan do resource-rich provinces perform lower democratization progress? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 259 ols and fixed-effects model and found a stable inverse relationship between oil wealth per capita, measured using the log of oil per capita and democracy. in this research, polity2 was used to measure democracy, which reflected competitiveness and openness representing political participation. while the adverse effects of oil on democracy have become widely accepted, several studies have uncovered a surprising contrast result against ross (2001). haber and menaldo (2012), for instance, found insignificant results once country fixed-effects were controlled. werger (2009), using fixed-effects regression between 1960 and 2004, found that the negative impact of oil production on democracy decreased once the model incorporated per capita income and population. arezki and bruckner (2011) disclosed that a change in oil rents raised civil liberties. similarly, a study by brückner (2012) exposed that an increase in the share of international oil prices raised democratic institutions. herb (2005) also initially argued that the negative relationship between oil and democracy was simply a matter of geographic sampling as previous studies relied heavily on countries in the middle east and north africa. oskarsson and ottosen (2010) conducted an in-depth study that criticized the democracy variable used in previous studies (e.g., jensen & wanthecekon, 2004; smith, 2004; tsui, 2010). they argued that most studies in the past were focused on the political rights index (polity), ignoring civil liberties components, such as freedom of assembly to form organizations, and not considering freedom of the press, which can better capture democracy dimensions. the studies confirming ross’s (2001) findings are also limited by the time horizon, essential for robustness. oskarsson and ottosen (2010) then empirically tested the hypothesis by proposing an alternative democracy score from freedom house (fh), which included the civil freedom aspect to complement the traditional polity index used in the previous studies. to examine temporal stability, oskarsson and ottosen (2010) also employed different periods, comparing the old periods in 1977-1999 and new periods within 2000-2006, according to panel data in 132 countries. they found that the democracy quality became unaffected by oil when democracy was measured utilizing the fh-index, with some surprising positive evidence of oil or mineral dependence (defined as the percentage of gdp), when democracy scores referred to political rights and civil liberties, respectively. in addition, acemoglu et al. (2005) also examined whether democracy performance was determined by per capita income, as suggested in another influential study by barro (1999). the authors uncovered that once countries’ unobserved effects were included, per capita income became insignificant, but education strongly affected democracy. this finding suggests that education should be added as an important control to detect the direct influence of oil on the countries’ democracy level. reviewing the highlighted literature as above, it is clear that the topic between oil and its relationship with democracy is still a developing topic to be studied, and while the existing literature has shed some light, many of them were concentrated using cross-country datasets. for this reason, this study offered room to fill the gap by adopting in-country analysis. to the best of the author’s knowledge, the author could not find similar studies hilmawan do resource-rich provinces perform lower democratization progress? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 260 establishing a link between oil or mining dependence and democracy in asia, nor indonesia. this paper is then structured as follows: section 2 explains the author’s data sources, including the variable size and the research methods used in this study. section 3 demonstrates the results and discusses the relevant findings associated with the purpose of the paper. section 5 presents the conclusion. research method since oil export data were not available at the provincial level in indonesia, the author used physical production (lifting) as it closely captured the cross-provincial export level in indonesia. data on the physical quantity of oil production (in barrels) were obtained from the ministry of energy and mineral resources (moemr). oil production in a province was the amount of oil produced in all districts of the relevant province, specifically calculating oil wells operated onshore or offshore or both in the respective area. respecting ross's (2001) study, the researcher divided each province’s oil production with the total national production to measure it as a share. again, for robustness check, the researcher also divided the province’s oil lifting by its population according to the indonesian census data in 2010, allowing the researcher to measure it as per capita value. regarding the democracy variable, the researcher employed the indonesian democracy index (idi) released in 2009 by the indonesian central statistical bureau (bps). the idi encompasses three fundamental aspects, namely civil freedom, political rights, and democratic institutions. these aspects were then decomposed into 11 variables and 28 indicators to obtain a single composite index of idi. this democracy index had a scale of 0 to 100, where a higher value meant better improvement at the level of democracy. the researcher then rescaled this from 0 to 1 to match the scale of this study’s key independent variable that used the proportion value. in addition, the researcher limited the period to only 2009-2016, following the availability data of idi. the idi reflects dimensions similar to the well-known fh democracy indicators used by aslaksen (2010) and oskarsson and ottosen (2010), which give more weight to political rights and civil liberties as the key components. as in ross (2001), aslaksen (2010), and oskarsson and ottosen (2010), some control variables were also included. the income per capita is hypothesized to increase prosperity, thereby improving the demands of democracy. better educated people are expected to increase political representations, enhance public awareness, and improve the quality of democracy (acemoglu et al., 2005; barro 1999). to measure this, the researcher used the human development index (hdi) as a proxy. the researcher was also interested in adding variables capturing the dynamics of women’s contributions in each province, which were believed to affect democracy sustainability (gberevbie & oviasogie, 2013). for this aim, the researcher utilized the proportion of women involved in formal and professional work. the researcher also included internet use as the important control variable. some recent studies have emphasized internet exposure as a driving factor in hilmawan do resource-rich provinces perform lower democratization progress? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 261 reinforcing democratic practices (pirannejad, 2017; evans, 2019) or reducing people’s satisfaction towards democracy (chang, 2017). thus, the researcher collected information about the percentage of “households” that used the internet in the last three months. the researcher was also aware that previous studies had controlled religion to capture the proportion of people who embraced islam. however, based on indonesia’s census in 2010, the majority of the population across provinces in indonesia were affiliated as “muslims”, while data related to them were unavailable over time. the researcher excluded this point as the control of the study. all data used for these explanatory variables were also collected from bps.4 the estimation strategy consisted of two parts. first, considering that the observation contained several provinces across different islands, estimation based on the fixed-effects (fe) method to control for factors caused by the unobserved heterogeneity in these provinces was preferred. the static model was then constructed as follows: 𝐷𝐸𝑀𝑂𝐶𝑖,𝑡 = 𝛼 + 𝑂𝐼𝐿𝑖,𝑡 + 𝛽′𝑋𝑖,𝑡 + 𝜇𝑖 + 𝛾𝑡 + 𝜀𝑖,𝑡 (1) here, the researcher regressed the quality of democracy (𝐷𝐸𝑀𝑂𝐶𝑖,𝑡) on this study’s key variable, oil dependence or 𝑂𝐼𝐿𝑖,𝑡 . democracy was measured by the idi. the researcher also used each component of the idi, namely civil freedom (cf), political rights (pr), and democracy institutions (di) as mentioned above, as alternative-dependent variables, following the strategy used by oskarsson and ottosen (2010). 𝑂𝐼𝐿𝑖,𝑡 is a share of oil produced by each province in total oil production and is the share per population as in haber and menaldo (2011) or aslaksen (2010).5 the constant provincial fixed effects were indicated by 𝜇𝑖 , while 𝑋𝑖,𝑡 was a set of vectors indicating the control variables. the subscripts 𝑖 = 1, 2, 3, … … , 33 for 33 provinces across all islands in indonesia, and 𝑡 = 1, 2, 3, … . .8, for the eight years, made the time series smaller than the number of the cross-sectional identifier. given this fact, a more advanced static panel model, such as a feasible general least square (fgls), was not suitable (reed & ye, 2009). a short period also provided a restriction to effectively perform lagged independent variables technique or use a more advanced dynamic panel model. the estimation that relied on panel data might suffer from a cross-sectional dependency problem, resulting in biased estimation. therefore, the researcher complemented the fixed effects model by performing the driscoll and kraay (d-k) (1998) standard errors as it suited the specification of the data set when 𝑖 > 𝑡. the d-k method, as emphasized in hoechle (2007), was robust in the case of heteroscedasticity, autocorrelated with ma(𝑞), and the appearance of a cross-sectional dependent.6 thus, the researcher followed this 4 the year for hdi and woman participation starts from 2010 onwards. 5 as summarised in descriptive statistics (see table 5), the oil dependence measurement contains 0 values. this prevents the researcher to transform it into a logarithmic form. also, as it used the share or proportions rather than level, it was infrequent to convert it as logs (see wooldrige, 2016, p.194-195, for detailed explanations). 6 the pcse (panel corrected standard errors) method is also a good alternative and can be done in stata using xtpcse command, but again since the number of observations the researcher used was greater than t, the researcher prefered d-k method (hoecle, 2007). hilmawan do resource-rich provinces perform lower democratization progress? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 262 procedure in all estimations. the pesaran cd test was also used for the first time to detect the presence or absence of cross-sectional dependence (de hoyos & sarafidis, 2006). finally, the researcher also tested whether oil lowered democracy performance in provinces with higher oil dependence than less or no oil. to do so, the samples were separated into two categories. provinces less dependent on oil were grouped in java and other regions, while oil-rich provinces were grouped in sumatra and kalimantan. the analysis was then repeated as in eq. (1) to check whether different results appeared. result and discussion descriptive analysis the researcher began by showing descriptive figures regarding the key variables used, while the average comparison was also shown right after. the descriptive statistics are shown in table 5. figure 1 presents scatterplots between the average share of oil production and the aggregate index of democracy quality (idi) over 2009-2016, including the three core aspects of idi. for clarity, the approximate lines in each graph were also shown. as shown, there was a positive correlation between oil dependence and idi, and each index related to political rights and democratic institutions in 33 provinces was observed. the researcher also found a slight negative pattern on the civil freedom index, although the predicted linear line was insignificant. figure 1 relationship between the share of oil production and idi (2009-2016) hilmawan do resource-rich provinces perform lower democratization progress? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 263 figure 2 compares average oil production between 2009 and 2016, grouped into the seven largest islands in indonesia (sumatra, java, kalimantan, maluku and the east regions, sulawesi, and papua). as predicted, sumatra became the highest contributor, with production stood at 18.4 million barrels. kalimantan and java followed with 9.5 million barrels on average. the remainder regions showed production levels below five million barrels, with papua as the highest producer among other regions. figure 2 comparison of oil production across indonesia’s major islands figure 3 comparison of democracy level across indonesia’s major islands as shown in figure 3, comparatively, sumatra, which produced the highest oil output, did not automatically achieve a higher democracy index, while kalimantan and java had good performance compared to the rest. interestingly, the oil-poor island of sulawesi ranked fourth place with a better idi than sumatra as the oil-rich region. the graph also shows that papua had the lowest democracy index during the observed period. to obtain strong hilmawan do resource-rich provinces perform lower democratization progress? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 264 evidence for these revealed descriptive patterns, a regression analysis was conducted to formally examine the impact of oil dependence on local democracy indicators in indonesia. the effects of oil on democracy moving on to results, table 2 presents the effect of oil production’s share on the aggregated index of democracy (idi). all models controlled the provincial fixed effects and performed driscoll kraay (d-k) standard errors as pesaran cd tests significantly rejected the null hypothesis of no cross-sectional dependence. in columns (1) (4), table 1, it was interestingly found that local democracy was positively affected by the share of oil production, where all coefficients were statistically significant at a 1 percent level. the point estimates were large in columns (3) and (4) when more determinants of democracy were included. referring to column (4), for example, an increase of one percentage point in the share of oil in total production increased idi by 0.005 (=0.462*0.01). if the average value of the idi were 0.685, then the idi would be 0.690, and a relative change would increase to (0.690-0.685/0.685=) 0.71 percent. alternatively, by standardizing the coefficient, increasing the share of oil production in the total production by one standard deviation would increase idi by ([0.088/0.066]*0.462 =) 0.607 standard deviations, holding all others constant.7 the researcher also found that households’ use of the internet and the share of women’s participation in professional jobs were positively correlated with democracy level, although the magnitudes were small, and the effect of gender was no longer significant, as shown in columns (3) (4). gini ratio in urban districts also showed negative signs across all models as expected but insignificant. as for per capita income, the researcher uncovered a positive sign but again not significant in most of the models used. education, in particular, has proven to be a strong determinant of the democracy level in indonesia, where the estimated coefficient was above 1. for example, hdi raised idi by (1.460*0.01=) 0.015 points when hdi increased by one percentage point. for robustness, the researcher used an alternative measure of oil abundance based on its per capita value. all results are depicted in table 2. controlling other variables in the previous model, the results remained consistent with the positive coefficients found for oil per capita, although only significant in columns (3) and (4) but at a 1 percent level. in particular, taking column (4) as an example to compare with the result in table 1, the democracy index only improved by (0.642*0.01 =) 0.006 points when oil per capita rose by one percentage point. it suggests that even both measures of oil dependence showed a positive effect, it was found that the share of oil production had a strong implication on the democracy index in the province. regarding other determinants, it was found that a 7 standardized coefficients or beta coefficients measure the standard deviation change in a dependent variable caused by a standard deviation increase in an independent variable (wooldridge, 2016:768). the calculation for the beta coefficient is obtained by multiplying the �̂�1 with the ratio of standard deviation of 𝑥1 to the standard deviation of the dependent variable (see wooldridge, 2016, p.169). hilmawan do resource-rich provinces perform lower democratization progress? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 265 similar effect of internet use was positively correlated with democracy, as predicted in the literature, whereas hdi remained to increase democracy. table 1 the effects of oil production on democracy quality dependent variable: idi (1) (2) (3) (4) share of oil production 0.365*** 0.444*** 0.513*** 0.462*** (0.047) (0.064) (0.069) (0.075) income per capita (in logs) 0.037 0.034* 0.009 -0.002 (0.020) (0.015) (0.014) (0.012) gini ratio -0.009 -0.175 -0.229 (0.157) (0.153) (0.155) woman participation 0.006*** 0.001 0.000 (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) internet use 0.003*** 0.001** (0.001) (0.000) hdi 1.460*** (0.340) constant 0.595*** 0.330** 0.595*** -0.267 (0.030) (0.089) (0.065) (0.249) fixed effects yes yes yes yes d-k standard errors yes yes yes yes r-squared 0.055 0.112 0.289 0.320 observations 264 231 231 231 number of groups 33 33 33 33 note: *, **, and *** imply statistical significance at the 10, 5, and 1 percent levels, respectively. table 2 the effects of oil per capita on democracy dependent variable: idi (1) (2) (3) (4) oil per capita 0.042 0.026 0.743*** 0.642*** (0.191) (0.112) (0.141) (0.151) income per capita (in logs) 0.004 0.004* 0.001 -0.000 (0.002) (0.002) (0.001) (0.001) gini ratio 0.003 -0.012 -0.018 (0.016) (0.016) (0.016) woman participation 0.001*** 0.000 -0.000 (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) internet use 0.0003*** 0.0001** (0.000) (0.000) hdi 0.151*** (0.033) constant 0.060*** 0.034** 0.057*** -0.031 (0.003) (0.010) (0.007) (0.024) fixed effects yes yes yes yes d-k standard errors yes yes yes yes r-squared 0.035 0.085 0.272 0.305 observations 264 231 231 231 number of groups 33 33 33 33 note: *, ** and *** imply statistical significance at the 10, 5, and 1 percent levels, respectively. hilmawan do resource-rich provinces perform lower democratization progress? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 266 moving on to table 3, the models in table 1 and table 2 are replicated and divided into two groups: java & others8 and sumatra & kalimantan. the emphasis here is for sumatra and kalimantan as these islands are known as oil-rich areas. it was rediscovered that despite sample separation was conducted, oil dependence was still positively correlated with democracy level. interestingly, the estimated coefficients of oil production share in the provinces in the first group were larger than those in sumatra and kalimantan. table 3 the effects of oil on each aspect of democracy dependent variable: idi (1) (2) (3) (4) java & other regions java & other regions sumatra & kalimantan sumatra & kalimantan share of oil production 0.426*** 0.145* (0.087) (0.072) oil per capita 6.016*** 0.325** (0.950) (0.097) income per capita (in logs) 0.009 0.001 -0.004 -0.000 (0.012) (0.001) (0.026) (0.003) gini ratio -0.017 0.005 -0.494** -0.047** (0.174) (0.016) (0.194) (0.019) woman participation 0.000 -0.000 -0.000 0.000 (0.000) (0.000) (0.002) (0.000) internet use 0.001 0.000 0.001** 0.0001*** (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) hdi 2.048*** 0.202*** 0.736 0.063 (0.360) (0.043) (0.460) (0.043) constant -0.728** -0.076** 0.322 0.037 (0.243) (0.027) (0.328) (0.031) fixed effects yes yes yes yes d-k standard errors yes yes yes yes r-squared 0.422 0.437 0.242 0.246 observations 133 133 97 97 number of groups 19 19 14 14 note: *, ** and *** imply statistical significance at the 10, 5, and 1 percent levels, respectively. the same finding was also found for oil per capita. in particular, for example, holding all other factors constant, democracy increased by (0.426*0.01 =) 0.004 points when the share of oil production in java provinces increased by one percentage point, significant at a 1 percent level. meanwhile, it only raised the democracy quality by (0.145*0.01 =) 0.001 points in provinces located in sumatra and kalimantan, with statistically significant only at the 10 percent level. the point estimates differed substantially between these two groups. for example, a difference of 0.281 for oil production and 5.691 for oil per capita was found. these findings suggested that although oil dependence had helped increase the overall democracy level, oil impact in oil-deficient provinces or provinces with lack or no oil endowments achieved better democracy quality than provinces with dominant oil resources. 8 i combine provinces in java, maluku and east regions, ntt, papua, and sulawesi in this group. hilmawan do resource-rich provinces perform lower democratization progress? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 267 oil effects on particular aspects of democracy finally, if oil dependence generally helps indonesia’s democratic environment, does it also affect indonesia's particular aspect of democracy? table 4 presents the results regarding this question by comparing civil freedom, political rights, and democratic institutions, where each was placed as the dependent variable, and the researcher regressed them separately on the oil measures as before. to save space, attention is now focused on estimation associated with the key independent variables. table 4 effects of oil on each aspect of democracy (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) variables cf pr di cf pr di oil production 0.051*** 0.030* 0.066** (0.007) (0.013) (0.026) oil per capita 1.733*** -0.267 0.727 (0.271) (0.382) (0.375) constant 0.204*** 0.224*** -0.005 0.204*** 0.231*** -0.012 (0.026) (0.040) (0.045) (0.017) (0.042) (0.044) controls yes yes yes yes yes yes fixed effects yes yes yes yes yes yes d-k standard errors yes yes yes yes yes yes r-squared 0.078 0.058 0.098 0.113 0.589 0.083 observations 231 231 231 231 231 231 number of groups 33 33 33 33 33 33 note: civil freedom (cf), political rights (pr) and democracy institutions (di). *, ** and *** imply statistical significance at the 10, 5, and 1 percent levels, respectively. as shown, the researcher also exposed consistent results across all specifications within a particular dimension in democracy. as measured by its share in total production, oil was positively correlated with each dimension, with the indicator in democratic institutions being particularly affected. however, different results appeared when oil was measured based on a per capita basis. there was no evidence that oil had improved political rights and democratic institutions, except for civil freedom. for example, in column (4), increasing the value of oil per capita by one percentage point raised the civil freedom value by 0.017 points. however, in column (1), using the share of oil production, civil freedom only increased by 0.001 points, ceteris paribus. the finding of this study contradicts ross’s study, which showed that oil dependence positively affected democracy. as democracy measure(s) used reflected indicators according to fh dimensions, a positive effect was found on democracy, particularly civil liberties. these results align with arezki and bruckner’s (2011) and specifically oskarsson and ottosen’s (2010) studies, emphasizing the fh scores. the researcher followed arguments built by oskarsson and ottosen (2010), which suggested that the negative relationship between oil and democracy found in the previous studies might be caused by inadequate measurements to calculate democracy aspects better. for example, once indicators capturing civil liberties are better weighted, the oil effect no longer exists or fosters democracy. oskarsson and ottosen (2010) also highlighted the issues connected hilmawan do resource-rich provinces perform lower democratization progress? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 268 to temporal variations, resulting in different consequences once the new periods were added. another justification of why the findings in this research differed might be due to the different scopes observed. previous studies have repeatedly used cross-country explorations, which might not fully control the effects of countries’ heterogeneity. in contrast, the within-country approach in this study removed country heterogeneity issues while regional differences across provinces could still be controlled by incorporating the fixed effects method. interesting results were also found, where oil impacts in provinces clustered in java and other regions showed better democratic performance than provinces with a high oil track record. as provinces in java generally have better institutional capacity and infrastructure factors, this may exogenously contribute to strengthening local democracy in these areas. furthermore, two factors might contribute to oil production, thereby strengthening indonesia’s democracy. first, as oil generates revenues to provinces and districts, local governments may respond in the form of better spending decisions, which could strengthen particular aspects of democracy, such as democratic institutions and civil awareness. oil also generates income, which promotes democracy through the expansions of the middle class in society (leonard, 2019). the researcher also uncovered that in all the regression models used, education had been a positive contributor to the democracy level in indonesia. second, the researcher argued that testing the effects driven by oil wealth on the “quality” of democracy should be more relevant in a country that has just transformed to practice democratization values. for example, country a and country b both depend on oil as a state income source, but country a is recently shifted to adopt a democratic system, say a decade ago, while country b remains under their authoritarian political regime. the windfalls from oil across regions in country a will be more varied since, in a young democratic country, people tend to use this environment to express their political aspirations yet raising freedom. in contrast, for country b, as the political regime partly or entirely blocks public participation, the magnitude of the oil windfalls seems to create a small or detrimental effect, which suggests that it is unlikely to improve democracy. conclusion this study assessed the links between oil abundance and democracy using indonesia as a sample of developing countries in asia. this study contributes to the lack in the number of studies addressing this issue specifically to within-country. in this research, the provincial fixed effects were used along with driscoll-kraay’s robust standard errors to deal with arbitrary forms of heteroscedasticity, serial correlation, and cross-section dependence in the panel data model. this study also utilized two oil dependence measurements, based on production and per capita value, and tested the locational effects by dividing the sample. this study also scrutinized whether oil was also mattered in particular aspects of indonesian democracy. hilmawan do resource-rich provinces perform lower democratization progress? … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 269 the main finding did not confirm the hypothesis, which elaborated that oil rents weaken democracy performance. on the other hand, it was found that oil dependence did improve indonesia’s democracy quality, whether measured based on its aggregate index value or when democracy was divided based on the index of specific democracy aspects. another finding is that oil was strongly associated with civil liberties in particular, rather than with political rights and democratic institutions. finally, this study uncovered that oil’s impact on democracy quality in java and other regions lacking oil resources was stronger than in resource-rich provinces, such as sumatra and kalimantan. it might suggest that institutional capabilities mattered as it was widely understood that the provinces in java owned better-established government and bureaucracy systems than other provinces. however, this study was limited as it was only conducted at the provincial level, given that data on the democracy quality were not available at the district level. this study also did not provide wide time intervals due to the availability of data, making it only a short observation duration could be analyzed, and this suggested that tests of temporal stability had not been sufficiently investigated. therefore, subsequent research, which emphasizes within-country situations as previously described, is worth pursuing. appendix table 5 descriptive statistics variable obs mean std. dev. min max idi 264 0.685353 0.066787 0.5261 0.8558 civil freedom 264 0.08367 0.011645 0.04721 0.1 political rights 264 0.055643 0.012406 0.02895 0.08577 democracy institution 264 0.069916 0.010159 0.0447 0.0935 share of oil production 264 0.033667 0.088067 0 0.503516 oil per capita 264 0.001891 0.00464 0 0.027594 income per capita (in logs) 264 2.10745 0.758225 0.302138 4.747099 gini ratio 264 0.372144 0.044756 0.259 0.475 share of woman participation 231 47.05931 5.326302 31.56 59.55 internet use (%) 264 28.87511 14.39659 4.15 76.96 hdi 231 0.673888 0.043982 0.5445 0.796 references acemoglu, d., johnson, s., robinson, j. a., & yared, p. 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(6th edition). cengage learning. https://doi.org/10.1080/00220380903151058 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2003.11.002 https://doi.org/10.1080/02681102.2017.1289889 https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840802600087 https://doi.org/10.1353/wp.2001.0011 https://doi.org/10.1016/s0014-2921(01)00125-8 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0092-5853.2004.00067.x https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0092-5853.2004.00067.x https://voxeu.org/article/arab-uprising-more-oil-less-democracy?quicktabs_tabbed_recent_articles_block=0 https://voxeu.org/article/arab-uprising-more-oil-less-democracy?quicktabs_tabbed_recent_articles_block=0 image (2).jpg image (3).jpg image (4).jpg image (5).jpg image (6).jpg image (7).jpg image (8).jpg jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 22 nomor 1, april 2021 1 presidential regulation no. 104/2007, concerning the provision of distribution and pricing of 3 kg lpg cylinder and kesdm regulation no. 26/2009 concerning lpg provision and distribution, states that the target of subsidized lpg is poor households (households with an income of idr 1,500,000 , or can show a poor certificate) and micro business. article type: research paper fuel availability and java households cooking fuel choices: evidence from indonesia’s lpg subsidy policy restu lestarianingsih1* and vid adrison2 abstract: in 2007, indonesia launched a 3 kg liquified petroleum gas (lpg) cylinder for poor households, and micro-enterprises were started on java island to reduce the burden of fuel subsidies. in its implementation, the subsidized lpg may also be used by non-target households, which has implications for the government’s fiscal burden. to avoid this, it is necessary to understand household behavior towards non-subsidized lpg choices. household income and fuel availability determine the choice of household cooking fuel types. however, existing studies have not seen the relationship between subsidized and nonsubsidized lpg as a household cooking fuel. using rich data from the march 2018 national socio-economic survey (susenas) and the ministry of energy and mineral resources (kesdm) information, this study examined the relationship between income, subsidized lpg quota as a representation of the availability of subsidized fuel, and non-subsidized lpg choices as household cooking fuel in java in 2018. the multinomial logit model's estimation results found that an increase in income and a decrease in subsidized lpg quotas were correlated with an increase in the opportunity to choose non-subsidized lpg as household cooking fuel in java in 2018. furthermore, this study revealed that the largest subsidized lpg users were non-poor households. keywords: fuel subsidy policy; household behavior; cooking fuel choice; fuel supply jel classification: d04, d12, d90, h310 introduction many developing countries offer fuel subsidies in the sense of providing affordable and sustainable energy sources. however, these subsidies impact increasing the government’s fiscal burden (bril-mascarenhas & post, 2015). something similar happened in indonesia. the increase in fiscal burden due to the increase in world oil prices in 2007 prompted the government to convert kerosene subsidies to liquified petroleum gas (lpg), resulting in a new 3 kg lpg cylinder. based on regulation1, the government provided this new lpg variant for poor households and microenterprises. the conversion of kerosene subsidy to lpg made government spending more efficient. with an estimated success of 90% affiliation: 1 environmental office, tasikmalaya city government, west java, indonesia 2 department of economics, faculty of economics and business, universitas indonesia, west java, indonesia *correspondence: restulestarianingsih@gmail.com this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v22i1.9757 citation: lestarianingsih, r., & adrison, v. (2021). fuel availability and household cooking fuel choices in java: evidence from indonesia’s lpg subsidy policy. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 22(1), 2136. article history received: 08 sep 2020 revised: 27 jan 2021 26 mar 2021 accepted: 01 apr 2021 https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorid=57204122488 https://www.feb.ui.ac.id/profil-dosen/?nip=060603488 https://www.feb.ui.ac.id/profil-dosen/?nip=060603488 https://www.feb.ui.ac.id/profil-dosen/?nip=060603488 https://www.feb.ui.ac.id/profil-dosen/?nip=060603488 mailto:restulestarianingsih@gmail.com http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/9757 https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v22i1.9757&domain=pdf lestarianingsih & adrison fuel availability and java households cooking fuel choices: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 22 conversion, this program potentially saved the government budget of 10.81 trillion rupiahs per year (kesdm, 2007). in this program, the government regulated the price and the quantity of subsidized lpg supply. in its supply policy, the government limited 3 kg lpg cylinders per region, known as subsidized lpg quota, each year. the government set subsidized lpg quotas for each region, estimated by the number of initial conversion package deliveries and an estimated ratio of fuel needs per household based on the previous year's volume. moreover, the government provided free cooking appliances for targeted households and microenterprises, consisting of 3 kg lpg cylinders, stoves, and equipment as a first step in the conversion program. the package delivery took place in phases between 2007 and 2015 started in java island, then at the end of 2018, covering all indonesian provinces except east nusa tenggara, maluku, north maluku, papua, and west papua. in ten years, the conversion program has been able to change the behavior of household fuel use. data from the central bureau of statistics (bps) in 2007-2016 showed that the percentage of households using gas/lpg as cooking fuel increased by 61.81%. the lpg quantity consumption annually increased by an average of 595,000 tons (kesdm, 2018), and kerosene consumption decreased by 92% (thoday et al., 2018). another problem was the volume of subsidized lpg distribution increased, while the volume of non-subsidized lpg distribution decreased during 2010-2016, as shown in figure 1. meanwhile, based on bps data for 2007-2018, the number of poor people as the target of subsidies fell annually by an average of one million residents. this contradiction might arise due to excessive consumption of subsidized lpg by target households, as there were no restrictions on the amount of subsidized lpg that could be consumed. it is in line with research stating that fuel subsidies are inefficient due to excessive consumption (davis, 2014). another possibility is the existence of non-target households that also use subsidized lpg. it is in accordance with research by arze del granado, coady, and gillingham (2012); laan and beaton (2010), which revealed that higher-income households got more benefit from subsidies. figure 1 distribution volume of subsidized and non-subsidized lpg from 2010 to 2016. source: kesdm, data processed. 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 subsidized (thousand tonne) non-subsidized (thousand tonne) lestarianingsih & adrison fuel availability and java households cooking fuel choices: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 23 based on the literature, household income and fuel availability have an influence on household fuel choices (cohn, 1980; dubin & mcfadden, 1984; hosier & dowd, 1987). empirical evidence has shown that there was different behavior concept regarding cooking fuel usage within households. the energy ladder concept proposes that households tend to switch their fuels with others, which are more sophisticated (mensah & adu, 2015) and appear to be more costly because of the increase in their purchasing power (guesalaga & marshall, 2008). this concept assumes that the initial fuel is inferior compared to its replacement (alem et al., 2016; gupta & köhlin, 2006; hosier & dowd, 1987). therefore, households will only use one type of fuel for cooking. however, another concept states that due to an increase in income, households tend to use some kinds of fuel without replacing the previously used fuel. this concept sees the multi-fuel behavior as a strategy to address market instability, savings, and efforts to sustain tradition (bisu, kuhe, & iortyer, 2016; van der kroon, brouwer, & van beukering, 2013; masera, saatkamp, & kammen, 2000). the multi-fuel usage concept further considers households' external factors other than income (van der kroon et al., 2013). one of the external factors is the fuel supply that can be represented by fuel availability (ang, choong, & ng, 2015; kowsari & zerriffi, 2011). it is in line with the idea that when price or supply change, the consumer will adjust the choice of consumption to save expenses (hursh, 1980; hursh & roma, 2013; lancaster, 1966). further, the equal reliable availability of primary and alternative fuels encourages households to use only one fuel type (hosier & dowd, 1987). however, if one of the fuel's availabilities is limited, households choose to use some kinds of fuel for cooking, called multi-fuel behavior. limitations in fuel supply can lead to a shortage that implies a price hike (gupta & köhlin, 2006), increasing cost and time to get it (heltberg, 2005). andadari, mulder, and rietveld (2014) have studied indonesian households' cooking preferences and behaviors. however, the analysis did not classify lpg as an option of cooking fuel into subsidized and non-subsidized lpg, and the research sample was limited to only 550 households in central java. to fill in this knowledge gap, this study examined the correlation of income and subsidized lpg availability with household behavior on choosing lpg variant as cooking fuel using multinomial logit model in java indonesia. as is well known, subsidized and non-subsidized lpg is available in the java area2, and most of the indonesian population is centered in java. this research gives a novelty as new contribution for the previous literatures where this study aims to determine the behavior of households using lpg variants, especially subsidized lpg as cooking fuel because it has implications for increasing the government's fiscal burden. the realization of lpg subsidies continues to exceed the available budget ceiling. based on data from the ministry of energy and mineral resources for 2010-2018, the budget burden for lpg subsidies has increased by an average of 6.45 trillion rupiah per year3. 2 the availability of lpg in java varies more than outside java, as the private sector also provides non-subsidized lpg for households in addition to pertamina as state-owned enterprise given the assignment to distribute subsidized lpg to the public. 3 source of data of the directorate general of budget of the ministry of finance (performance report of the state general treasurer, financial notes and budget of the state revenue and expenditure, central government financial reports lestarianingsih & adrison fuel availability and java households cooking fuel choices: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 24 research method the household fuel demand theory assumes that households determine cooking fuel based on rational considerations. households have a preference among several fuel choices and choose them by maximizing the utilities. household income, fuel price, and fuel availability have an impact on household fuel choices (cohn, 1980; dubin & mcfadden, 1984; hosier & dowd, 1987). besides, other household characteristics may contribute to the household preference for cooking fuel choices, such as microenterprise ownership, household size, region, education, and gender. the utility function can be written as, 𝑈𝑖𝑗 = 𝛽 ′𝑋𝑖𝑗 + 𝜀𝑗 , 𝑗 = (1,2,3) (1) where 𝑈𝑖𝑗 is a household utility with a choice of j fuel, 𝛽 ′ is the coefficients, 𝑋𝑖𝑗 is exogenous variables influencing the choice of one fuel over another, and 𝜀𝑗 is the model error. if a household chose one of the three choices fuel j, the choice opportunity could be estimated using the multinomial logit (mnl) model. this model is suitable for the study of discrete choices with more than two choices. in principle, the logit model is a nonlinear regression model both in parameters and variables. therefore, it is more appropriate to use maximum likelihood analysis techniques than ordinary least square (ols) (allard, & murphy, 1975). the probability for each cooking fuel choice category was calculated using the following equation, p(𝑌 = 𝑗| 𝑥) = exp( 𝛽𝑗 ′ 𝑋𝑖) ∑ exp( 𝛽𝑗 ′ 𝑋𝑖) 3 𝑗=1 (2) where p (y = j | x) is the opportunity to choose j fuel over the basis fuel. the cooking fuel choices consisted of subsidized lpg, non-subsidized lpg, or a combination of subsidized and non-subsidized lpg (mixed). these variables were made by constructing multilevel variables from questions concerning main cooking fuel and above 3 kg lpg cylinder ownership questions. the cooking fuel variable was a dummy, categorically worth 1 for subsidized lpg as the main fuel and not having above 3 kg lpg cylinder, 2 for non-subsidized lpg as the main fuel, and 3 for a combination of subsidized and non-subsidized lpg with 3 kg lpg as the main fuel and having above 3 kg lpg cylinder. due to data limitations, households that used non-subsidized lpg as the main fuel and had subsidized lpg cylinders could not be involved in this study. two main explanatory variables in this study were household income and subsidized lpg availability. to avoid reverse causality, household expenditure as a representation of income was reduced by lpg consumption expenditure. the second explanatory variable was subsidized lpg availability in the respondent area, represented by subsidizing lpg 2010-2018) processed by the directorate general of petroleum and gas of the ministry of energy and mineral resources (kesdm). lestarianingsih & adrison fuel availability and java households cooking fuel choices: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 25 quota data at the district level in 2018. the government set the subsidized lpg quota considering the targeted number and growth of subsidy recipients in each district each year, but over-quota could occur in realization. increasing subsidized lpg quota was likely to increase households' probability of preferring subsidized lpg as households saved more money than using more costly non-subsidized lpg. limited supply may lead households to refuse to choose it as their main fuel (kowsari & zerriffi, 2011), perhaps switching to more expensive alternative fuels (inge, jan, & marti, 1997). in multi-fuel use behavior, households tend to consume both types of fuel, one of which is used as a reserve because of its uncertainty of supply (bisu et al., 2016). in addition to the two main explanatory variables, the study employed multiple household characteristics control variables to capture the influence of variables other than the main explanatory. households prefer to choose from several cooking energy sources to maximize their utility (ouedraogo, 2006). the study used control variables: microenterprises ownership, household size, residential area, house ownership, the person in charge (pic) of the family education level, and pic of the family's gender. demographic factors utilized the characteristics of the person in charge of the family (pic). pic, in general, is the household head who is authorized as a decision-maker (posel, 2001). however, for male household heads who are married and their wives live in the same residence, the wife plays the pic role because, in cooking activities or fulfilling household needs, the wife plays a role as a decision-maker (david, 1994). table 1 displays all definitions of variable research. table 1 definition of research variables variable definition source dependent cooking fuel lpg as dummy variable used for cooking fuel, 1 for subsidized lpg, 2 for non-subsidized lpg, 3 for subsidized lpg and nonsubsidized (mixed) statistics indonesia variable of interest income monthly household expenditure without lpg consumption in hundred thousand rupiahs statistics indonesia subsidized lpg quota the quota of subsidized lpg per 1000 tons ministry of energy and mineral resources (kesdm) control microenterprises ownership dummy variable; ownership of micro-enterprises by households has a value of 1 if at least one household member work in the informal sector, with work field in the processing industry, accommodation provision, food and drink provision, and 0 if others. statistics indonesia household size the number of household members statistics indonesia region dummy variable of a residential area that is worth 1 if living in urban areas, and 0 if rural areas. statistics indonesia dwelling ownership dummy variable of dwelling ownership that is worth 1 if household lives in a house they owned, and 0 for others. statistics indonesia education pic’s years of schooling statistics indonesia gender dummy variable of pic’s gender, 1 if pjrt male and 0 if female. statistics indonesia lestarianingsih & adrison fuel availability and java households cooking fuel choices: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 26 the study used cross-sectional data that combined microdata from susenas bps in march 2018 and kesdm data in 2018. susenas is one household level and individual survey to obtain indonesian people's socio-economic conditions, which has been taking hold every year since 2015 in march and september. the results of the march 2018 susenas were selected as samples because they contained lpg variant usage information as cooking fuel, and the data could present estimated results up to the district level (bps, 2017). otherwise, it also corresponded to the data available from kesdm. the kesdm data included subsidized lpg quota information at each indonesian district in 2018. the data used as the main explanatory variable to represent fuel characteristics in the respondent residential area influenced lpg variant choice as cooking fuel. there were 295,155 household samples, which matched based on district codes, after combining susenas and kesdm data. next, sample selection was in two stages. first, selecting household samples using lpg as the main fuel for cooking left 199,410 households. the final steps were selecting household samples living in areas that already had subsidized lpg agents in the java area, leaving 77,445 households ready for analysis. result and discussion descriptive statistics tables 2 to table 5 present the descriptive statistics and analysis of research variables. based on march 2018 susenas results, lpg was the cooking fuel of most households in java, with subsidized lpg as the largest variant with 88.08%, non-subsidized with 7.08%, and mixed lpg with 4,84%. table 2 exhibits a descriptive analysis of research variables tabulated with the economic status of households categorized as poor, susceptible, and non-poor4. the data showed that the largest subsidized lpg users were non-poor households compared to susceptible and poor households; likewise, with the use of mixed lpg. it could happen because there were no exclusions other than poor households on the use of subsidized lpg so that poor, susceptible, and non-poor households could access it freely as long as lpg subsidies were available. moreover, the data revealed that 0.33% of non-subsidized lpg users and 0.85% of mixed lpg users were poor households. it might be related to the inadequate availability of subsidized lpg in the respondent's residential area, while there was more non-subsidized lpg. it is in line with the literature that a reliable supply is a factor influencing fuel choice as the main fuel (hosier & dowd, 1987). 4 households are classified as poor if the amount of monthly per capita household expenditure is below the district/city poverty line. susceptible households are households with total per capita household expenditure in the range of 1.5 times the district/city poverty line. non-poor households are if the amount of monthly per capita household expenditure is above 1.5 times the district/city poverty line. lestarianingsih & adrison fuel availability and java households cooking fuel choices: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 27 table 2 cross tabulation of lpg variant uses based on economic status in 2018 household economic status lpg variant subsidized non-subsidized mixed lpg total poor 3843 18 32 3893 (5.63%) (0.33%) (0.85%) (5.03%) susceptible 11316 74 182 11572 (16.59%) (1.35%) (4.85%) (14.94%) non-poor 53060 5394 3536 61990 (77.78%) (98.32%) (94.29%) (81.03%) total 68219 5486 3750 77455 (100%) (100%) (100%) (100%) source: data processed. figure 2 displays the use of lpg variants based on ten income groups represented by monthly household expenditure per capita for a more detailed analysis. based on the data, 0.64% of non-subsidized lpg users were found in the group of households with the lowest 10% income, and 2.43 % were mixed lpg users. figure 2 lpg variant uses based on income group 2018. source: data processed. subsidized lpg users were found to be in each decile of income groups with the largest percentage in the fourth decile, but it continued to decline for each income group above it. it might occur because the subsidized lpg distribution system could not prevent nontarget households from accessing it. moreover, existing regulations did not impose sanctions on non-target households using subsidized lpg, so it was difficult to avoid the opportunistic behavior of non-target households. furthermore, the data disclosed an increasing percentage of mixed lpg users in the higher income group. based on the literature, the multi-fuel behavior is one of the household's efforts to overcome their main fuel supply constraints (bisu et al., 2016; van der kroon et al., 2013). looking at the phenomenon of using mixed lpg in indonesia, it could be a household's precautionary effort if subsidized lpg was scarce at any time because the government distributed subsidized lpg to each region limited by an annual quota. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 d1 d2 d3 d4 d5 d6 d7 d8 d9 d10 % decil income group subsidized non-subsidized mix lestarianingsih & adrison fuel availability and java households cooking fuel choices: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 28 based on table 3, it reveals that only 10.54% of subsidized lpg users were poor microenterprises households. poor households with microenterprises did not use nonsubsidized lpg, but there were still 9.38% mixed users. it might occur as a precaution if, at any time, subsidized lpg was more difficult to obtain. table 3 lpg variant uses in poor households based on micro-enterprises ownership 2018 microenterprises ownership poor household subsidized non-subsidized mixed lpg total no 3,438 18 29 3,385 (89.46%) (100%) (90.63%) (89.52%) yes 405 3 408 (10.54%) (%) (9.38%) (10.48%) total 3,843 18 32 3,893 (100%) (100%) (100%) (100%) source: data processed. table 4 exposes that in susceptible households as subsidized lpg users, only 12.80% had micro-enterprises. though it did not break the regulations as micro-entrepreneurs were the main consumers of subsidized lpg, it is better for household’s personal cooking needs to use non-subsidized lpg. however, there were 16.48% of susceptible micro-enterprises households using mixed lpg. it might happen if households used subsidized lpg to do business, while non-subsidized lpg was used for domestic cooking. table 4 lpg variant uses in susceptible households based on micro-enterprises ownership 2018 microenterprises ownership susceptible household subsidized non-subsidized mixed lpg total no 9,867 72 152 10,091 (87.20%) (97.30%) (83.52%) (90.18%) yes 1,449 2 30 1,481 (12.80%) (2.70%) (16.48%) (9.82%) total 11,316 74 182 11,572 (100%) (100%) (100%) (100%) source: data processed. the descriptive analysis based on table 5 shows that 89% of non-poor households using subsidized lpg actually did not have micro-enterprises, and only 11% had microenterprises. similarly, the main consumers of mixed lpg were non-poor households with no micro-enterprises. it might occur because the distribution system could not exclude non-target households from access to subsidized lpg. additionally, existing regulations did not place restrictions on non-target households who used subsidized lpg. it was difficult to avoid opportunistic behavior of non-target households so that most non-target households enjoyed lpg subsidies. lestarianingsih & adrison fuel availability and java households cooking fuel choices: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 29 table 5 lpg variant use in non-poor households based on micro-enterprises ownership 2018 microenterprises ownership non-poor household subsidized non-subsidized mixed lpg total no 47,222 5,115 3,167 55,504 (89.00%) (94.83%) (89.56%) (89.54%) yes 5,838 279 369 6,486 (11.00%) (5.17%) (10.44%) (10.46%) total 53,060 5,394 3,536 61,990 (100%) (100%) (100%) (100%) source: data processed. the probability for choosing an lpg variant as cooking fuel based on table 6, income as the main household factor negatively correlated with subsidized and mixed lpg choice instead of non-subsidized. with each income rose by one hundred thousand rupiahs, household probability had 0.97 times to choose subsidized lpg over non-subsidized lpg and 0.99 times probability of choosing a mixed lpg over non-subsidized lpg. this result indicated that subsidized lpg was inferior to non-subsidized products because households preferred non-subsidized lpg as purchasing power increased over subsidies. it is consistent with research revealing that higher incomes were correlated with the choice of more modern and relatively more expensive fuels if the initial fuel was considered to be inferior (bisu et al., 2016; inge et al., 1997; kowsari & zerriffi, 2011; van der kroon et al., 2013; masera et al., 2000, sudaryanto, 2019). besides, the estimated results showed that statistically, subsidized lpg quota as a representation of fuel availability correlated significantly with the choice of subsidized and mixed lpg compared to non-subsidized lpg. an increase in subsidized lpg quota was positively correlated with increased opportunities for subsidized lpg choices compared to non-subsidized choices. for each additional one thousand tons subsidized lpg quota, households had the probability to choose subsidized lpg over non-subsidized lpg one time. it aligns with the literature, which states that increasing fuel supply increases fuel accessibility and reliability to be used as the main fuel for cooking (mensah & adu, 2015). the abundance of fuel available makes it easy for every household to access it (hosier & dowd, 1987). however, the estimated results revealed a different relationship between the subsidized lpg quota and mixed lpg choice compared to non-subsidized. each subsidized lpg quota increased by 1000 tons; households had a probability of choosing mixed lpg by 0.99 times over non-subsidized lpg. it suggested that increasing subsidized lpg availability resulted in fuel replacement behavior and did not result in mixed-fuel behavior. it implied that both subsidized and non-subsidized lpg supplies were reliable as the main cooking fuel. despite this, further research is essential to evaluate the subsidized lpg quota policy to encourage households, especially those non-targeted households, to choose nonlestarianingsih & adrison fuel availability and java households cooking fuel choices: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 30 subsidized lpg. improvements need to be made to the subsidized lpg distribution system to provide tighter restrictions or barriers for non-target households to access subsidized lpg. table 6 results of multinomial logit regression estimation of lpg variant choices as cooking fuel in indonesia 2018 variable coef. relative risk ratio (1) (2) subsidized lpg household income -0.0269 0.9734 (0.00039) *** (0.00039) *** subsidized lpg quota 0.0009 1.0009 (0.00053) * (0.00053) * dummy of microenterprises ownership (1=yes) 0.5324 1.7029 (0.06920) *** (0.11784) *** household size 0.3106 1.3643 (0.01320) *** (0.01801) *** dummy of residential region (1=urban) -1.0171 0.3616 (0.05431) *** (0.01964) *** household responsibility education -0.1578 0.8540 (0.00433) *** (0.00370) *** dummy of household pic gender (1=men) -1.0394 0.3537 (0.08264) *** (0.02923) *** non-subsidized lpg mixed lpg household income -0.0060 0.9920 (0.00041) *** (0.00040) *** subsidiezed lpg quota -0.0039 0.9961 (0,00073) *** (0.00073) *** dummy of microenterprises ownership (1=yes) 0.5758 1.7786 (0.08392) *** (0.14926) *** household size 0.2102 1.2339 (0.01665) *** (0.02055) *** dummy of residential region (1=urban) -0.6027 0.5473 (0.06713) *** (0.03674) *** household responsibility education -0.0655 0.9366 (0.00564) *** (0.00528)*** dummy of household pic gender (1=men) -0.6897 0.5017 (0.11541)*** (0.05790)*** n 77,455 mc fadden pseudo r2 0.2215 note: * p <0.10; ** p <0.05; *** p <0.010; () standard error. source: data processed. besides the main variables, some control variables statistically contributed to the household's preference on choosing subsidized and mixed lpg over non-subsidized lpg significantly. ownership of micro-enterprises contributed positively to households' preferences choosing to subsidized lpg over non-subsidized and choosing a mixed over non-subsidized. it was because micro-enterprise owners were legally entitled to use subsidized lpg. the household members' number contributed positively to the household’s preference to choose subsidized lpg over non-subsidized and choose a mixed over non-subsidized. lestarianingsih & adrison fuel availability and java households cooking fuel choices: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 31 larger households tend to choose subsidized or mixed lpg over non-subsidized to save their expenses (barnes, krutilla, & hyde, 2005; heltberg, 2005). as household members increased, the burden of providing more food increased. more ingredients made food cook longer, so more energy was needed. however, the residential area contributed negatively to households' preferences to choose subsidized or mixed lpg instead of non-subsidized. urban households tended to prefer non-subsidized lpg compared to rural households. it might be due to the comparatively improved quality of urban infrastructure in promoting diverse fuel delivery compared to rural areas (barnes et al., 2005; heltberg, 2005), rendering the urban market's lpg choices more extensive. it is easier to find non-subsidized lpg retailers or bases because there are no constraints on infrastructure quality, such as roads or closer distances to gas filling stations or large non-subsidized lpg agents. pic education contributed negatively to the choice of subsidized or mixed lpg instead of non-subsidized lpg. education reflects one's knowledge in addition to representing the economic status. formal education is one place to get knowledge. higher education level provides the potential for increased awareness of lpg subsidies for poor households (fernandes, 2018), which will be even more burdensome for the government if consumed by non-target households. lastly, estimation results showed that pic gender had a statistically significant negative contribution with households' preference in subsidized lpg choosing over non-subsidized and mixed non-subsidized. it aligns with studies showing that women tend to prefer cheap goods as an expense-saving shopping effort (otnes & mcgrath, 2001). therefore, male households pic preferred using non-subsidized lpg instead of subsidized and mixed. marginal effect in the selection of lpg as cooking fuel table 7 presents the marginal effects of each main and control variable. if household income rose by one hundred thousand rupiahs, the opportunity to choose subsidized lpg fell by 0.15%, the opportunity to choose non-subsidized lpg grew 0.08%, and the opportunity to choose mixed lpg increased by 0.07%. it is consistent with the descriptive statistics described that as income groups increased, subsidized lpg users decreased, while non-subsidized and mixed users increased. increased income increased the probability of choosing non-subsidized lpg as the main fuel for cooking. increasing household income would increase purchasing power and economic status. the improved economic status would affect household consumption patterns. households gradually reduced the use of inferior goods and going to consume luxury goods. research in indonesia by olivia and gibson (2008) said that non-subsidized lpg is a luxury item. a non-subsidized lpg cylinder's price is more expensive than a subsidized lpg given free of charge to the target household at the beginning of the conversion. therefore, although the study was carried out before the conversion program, this assumption can still be used. given the high initial costs, more sophisticated lestarianingsih & adrison fuel availability and java households cooking fuel choices: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 32 fuels tend to be more expensive for households (gupta & köhlin, 2006; masera et al., 2000). table 7 multinomial logit regression estimation results for lpg variant use as cooking fuel in indonesia 2018 variable lpg variant subsidized non-subsidized mix (1) (2) (3) household income -0.00154 0.00080 0.00074 (0.00003) *** (0.00002) *** (0.00002) *** subsidized lpg quota 0.00022 -0.00002 -0.00019 (0.00003) *** (0.00002) *** (0.00002) *** dummy of microenterprises ownership (1=yes) 0.01121 -0.01363 0.00242 (0.00283) ** (0.00145) *** (0.00237) *** household size 0.01311 -0.00942 -0.00369 (0.00069) *** (0.00042) *** (0.00237) *** dummy of residential region (1=urban) -0.04211 0.02724 0.01487 (0.00203) *** (0.00125) *** (0.00159) *** household responsibility education -0.00829 0.00473 0.00356 (0.00023) *** (0.00013) *** (0.00017) *** dummy of household responsibility gender(1=men) -0.06245 0.04889 0.01356 (0.00723) *** (0.00567) ** (0.00464) *** n 77,445 note: * p <0.10; ** p <0.05; *** p <0.010; () standard error. source: data processed. furthermore, an increase in income also increased the chances of using mixed lpg. increased purchasing power made it possible for households to buy both subsidized and non-subsidized lpg. however, lpg distribution of subsidies was limited according to the quota set for each district/city. thus, to anticipate if subsidized lpg would be scarce at any time, households used mixed lpg. according to the literature, an increase in income contributed to the multi-fuel behavior to anticipate the scarcity of the main fuel (bisu et al., 2016). the estimated results uncovered that if the subsidized lpg quota increased by one thousand tons, the probability of choosing subsidized lpg rose by 0.02%, the probability to choose non-subsidized lpg fell by 0.002%, and the probability to choose a mixed decreased by 0.013%. in other words, this research revealed that increasing the availability of subsidized lpg would make it easier for households to access subsidized lpg. with the price difference, households preferred subsidized lpg to non-subsidized lpg for greater spending saving. this study’s finding is much lower than (mensah & adu, 2015), estimating that the probability of choosing lpg over other kinds of fuels rose by 34,4% for the lpg’s reliability supply in ghana. it seems plausible since this study used the same kind of fuel at different prices, while (mensah & adu, 2015) used a different kind of fuel. nevertheless, the results are consistent with empirical evidence, stating that fuel availability is an external driver of household fuel type choices (alem et al., 2016; bisu et al., 2016; gupta & köhlin, 2006; mensah & adu, 2015). lestarianingsih & adrison fuel availability and java households cooking fuel choices: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 33 conclusion by introducing 3 kg lpg for poor households and micro-enterprises, the government initiated a conversion program of kerosene to lpg in 2007 to reduce the burden of subsidies. in its implementation, the use of subsidized lpg was possible for non-target households. to prevent the use of subsidized lpg by non-target households, households' behavior in choosing non-subsidized lpg, especially in java, should be understood. the research aimed to study the relationship between household’s income, subsidized lpg availability and non-subsidized lpg choices in java indonesia as households cooking fuel. the susenas and kesdm 2018 cross-sectional data were analyzed using the multinomial logit model. the data showed fewer non-subsidized lpg users than subsidized lpg users and a small proportion of subsidized and non-subsidized lpg users. furthermore, this study revealed that the largest subsidized lpg users were non-poor households. these study findings disclosed that java households would choose non-subsidized lpg if their income increased, and subsidized lpg quotas decreased. other household characteristics, such as micro-enterprise ownership, number of household members, residential area, education, and gender pic family, also contributed to the indonesian household preference in choosing non-subsidized lpg as cooking fuel. based on the study results, the government can follow some of the suggestions to encourage non-target households to use non-subsidized lpg. first, evaluating the determination of subsidized lpg quotas. today, quota determination also uses estimates based on the volume realization amount in the previous year, considering the number of distributions of the initial conversion kit and the average ratio of fuel needs per household. also, updating the number of program targets using information from the susenas or economic census (se). susenas may present economic status data and the need for cooking fuel consumption per month for households in one region, while microenterprises may use se data. second, improving the governance of the subsidized lpg distribution in the community by implementing a closed subsidized lpg distribution system as laid down in kesdm regulation no. 26/2009 concerning provision and distribution of lpg. subsidized lpg is delivered to households and micro-enterprises at specific delivery points that have been determined by showing a control card selection. acknowledgments this work was supported by a master's scholarship from the ministry of national development planning (bappenas). the authors would also like to thank you for the assistance in providing data from the statistics indonesia (bps), directorate general of petroleum and gas of the ministry of energy and mineral resources of the republic of indonesia (kesdm), and information from pt. pertamina. lestarianingsih & adrison fuel availability and java households cooking fuel choices: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 34 appendix table 8 summary of statistical research variables variable mean se min. max. cookung fuel multinomial 1.17 0.48 1 3 income idr 100,000,43.81 44.49 1.83 1367.76 subsidized lpg quota 1000 tons 40.80 29.10 0.65 152.59 dummy micro-enterprises ownership (1=yes) 0.11 0.31 0 1 hhsize person 3.66 1.49 1 17 dummy residential region (1=urban) 0.66 0.47 0 1 pic’s education year 7.65 4.47 0 25 dummy pic’s gender (1=men) 0.06 0.24 0 1 observation number households 77455 source: data processed references alem, y., beyene, a. d., köhlin, g., & mekonnen, a. 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(lia nazliana, pipit, handriyani) 59 peningkatan perekonomian. dalam hal pengembangan jasa keuangan, bank indonesia, kementerian keuangan dan ojk mempunyai peran penting terhadap pelaksanaan dan pengawasan regulasi sektor keuangan di indonesia. bahkan ketiga institusi tersebut telah memiliki suatu suara terkait dengan sinergi peran jasa keuangan dan pengentasan kemiskinan. perluasan penggunaan jasa keuangan diyakini berpengaruh terhadap penurunan tingkat kemiskinan di suatu daerah. dengan meningkatnya keterlibatan seluruh lapisan masyarakat terhadap jasa keuangan maka tingkat kemiskinan akan menurun dan peningkatan keuangan akan terjadi, pada akhirnya akan bermuara pada perkembangan perekonomian suatu daerah/negara. kemiskinan salah satunya disebabkan oleh terjadinya kesenjangan pendapatan di masyarakat. negara anggota g20, oecd, the world bank, imf, adb, dan asean telah sepakat bahwa perlu diberi perhatian penuh terhadap kesenjangan pendapatan masyarakat untuk pengentasan kemiskinan. pada tahun 2012, indonesia telah sepakat bersama institusi tersebut untuk meluncurkan strategi nasional keuangan inklusif yang akan menjadi acuan dalam strategi pengentasan kemiskinan di indonesia. keuangan inklusif pada dasarnya merupakan upaya yang disusun secara bersama yang bertujuan meniadakan bentuk hambatan terhadap akses mayarakat dalam memanfaatkan layanan jasa keuangan dengan biaya terjangkau. bank indonesia telah menyampaikan enam pilar yang menjadi dasar pelaksanaan keuangan inklusif di indonesia. keenam pilar tersebut meliputi: edukasi keuangan, fasilitas keuangan publik, pemetaan informasi keuangan, kebijakan/ peraturan pendukung, fasilitas intermediasi dan distribusi, dan perlindungan konsumen. beberapa studi pernah dilakukan terkait dengan penerapan keuangan inkusif di dunia khususnya di asia. berdasarkan studi yang telah dilakukan oleh ummah (2013) dikatakan bahwa diantara negara-negara di asia maka jepang dan kores selatan merupakan negara dengan nilai indeks inklusif tertinggi dibandingkan dengan negara-negara lain di asia. jepang memiliki nilai indeks inklusif sebesar 0,9 dan korea selatan memiliki nilai indeks inklusif sebesar 0,5. ini artinya bahwa hanya ke dua negara tersebut yang relatif merata dalam hal akses dan pelayanan keuangan yang lebih baik. studi yang dilakukan ummah dalam kurun waktu tahun 2004 sampai tahun 2011. tidak dapat dipungkiri bahwa terdapat beberapa faktor yang dapat mempengaruhi kesuksesan penerapan kebijakan keuangan inklusif maupun kemundurannya, salah satunya seperti yang pernah disampaikan setiawan, bahwa perilaku personal dapat menjadi faktor seseorang dalam menggunakan jasa perbankan. provinsi sumatera utara termasuk pada provinsi yang mengalami tingkat perkembangan perekonomian yang cukup baik jika dibandingkan dengan beberapa provinsi di indonesia. tercatat bahwa ibukota provinsi sumatera utara merupakan termasuk kota besar yang berpengaruh terhadap perekonomian di indonesia. namun berdasarkan data yang disampaikan oleh bank indonesia, sumatera utara masih dalam kategori underbanked. sumatera utara walaupun termasuk provinsi yang memilki potensi sumber daya ekonomi yang cukup baik namun dalam hal penggunaan jasa keuangan perbankan masih dalam kategori rendah. ini dapat menjadi indikasi bahwa pemerataan perekonomian di provinsi sumatera utara belum merata, dan pengetahuan mengenai jasa perbankan juga belum terserap di seluruh pelosok negeri. studi ini menggambarkan beberapa faktor yang dapat dipertimbangkan dalam penerapan kebijakan keuangan inkusif di sumatera utara. faktor yang diuraikan dalam studi ini adalah: jumlah penduduk, jumlah angkatan kerja, jumlah kantor cabang bank, dan pendapatan daerah (pdrb) selama kurun waktu 2010 hingga 2013. konsep inklusif keuangan. konsep inklusi keuangan mucul setelah adanya konsep eksklusi keuangan. berbagai peneliti mendefinisikan inklusi keuangan sebagai kebalikan dari eksklusi keuangan. sarma (2012) mendefinisikan inklusi keuangan sebagai sebuah proses yang menjamin kemudahan dalam akses, ketersediaan, dan manfaat dari sistem keuangan formal bagi seluruh pelaku ekonomi. bank indonesia (2013) mendefinisikan keuangan inklusi (financial inclusion) sebagai seluruh upaya yang bertujuan meniadakan segala bentuk hambatan yang bersifat harga maupun non harga, terhadap akses masyarakat dalam memanfaatkan layanan jasa keuangan. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 1, april 2013: 58-66 60 indikator yang dapat dijadikan ukuran dari keuangan yang inklusif sebuah negara adalah ketersediaan/akses untuk mengukur kemampuan penggunaan jasa keuangan formal dalam hal keterjangkauan fisik dan harga, penggunaan untuk mengukur kemampuan penggunaan aktual produk dan jasa keuangan (antara lain keteraturan, frekuensi dan lama penggunaan), kualitas untuk mengukur apakah atribut produk dan jasa keuangan telah memenuhi kebutan pelanggan, dan kesejahteraan untuk mengukur dampak layanan keuangan terhadap tingkat kehidupan pengguna jasa. beck et al. (2007) menyatakan bahwa konsep akses jasa keuangan dengan penggunaan jasa keuangan adalah konsep yang berbeda. pelaku ekonomi mungkin memiliki akses terhadap jasa keuangan tetapi tidak ingin menggunakannya. hal ini dapat disebabkan alasan sosial budaya ataupun biaya imbangan yang terlalu tinggi untuk menggunakan jasa keuangan. oleh karena itu, beck et al. membedakan kedua konsep terkait jangkauan sektor keuangan, yaitu (i) adanya akses dan kemungkinan dalam menggunakan jasa keuangan, dan (ii) penggunaan jasa keuangan aktual artinya yang benar-benar menggunakan jasa keuangan. adanya akses dan kemungkinan dalam menggunakan jasa keuangan di suatu daerah diukur dengan jumlah outlet/kantor cabang perbankan dan atm yang ada di daerah tersebut. semakin tinggi intensitas outlet/kantor cabang bank dan atm maka semakin tinggi pula kemungkinan dalam mengakses dan kesempatan dalam menggunakan jasa keuangan. sedangkan konsep kedua diukur dengan jumlah rekening kredit dan deposit serta rata-rata kredit dan deposit per gdp per kapita. tingginya kepemilikan rekening kredit dan deposit menunjukkan tingginya penggunaan jasa keuangan. demirguc-kunt a et al. (2008) menjelaskan lebih terperinci terkait perbedaan akses terhadap jasa keuangan dengan penggunaan jasa keuangan. akses ditujukan untuk penawaran sedangkan penggunaan jasa keuangan ditentukan baik oleh penawaran maupun permintaan. walaupun seseorang berpendapatan tinggi memiliki akses terhadap jasa keuangan, ada kemungkinan saja ia tidak tertarik untuk menggunakan jasa tersebut. begitu pula dengan nasabah, baik individu maupun perusahaan, belum tentu mau meminjam uang meskipun ditawari dengan suku bunga yang rendah. index of financial inclusion (ifi). beberapa peneliti mengukur inklusi keuangan dengan menghitung proporsi dari populasi dewasa atau rumah tangga yang memiliki akses terhadap jasa keuangan formal. studi yang lain membedakan konsep akses jasa keuangan dengan penggunaan jasa keuangan. akses jasa keuangan dapat diukur dengan jumlah kantor perbankan dan jumlah atm yang tersebar pada suatu wilayah, penggunaan jasa keuangan diukur dengan jumlah deposit serta kredit yang dilemparkan/disalurkan (world bank 2008). sarma et.al. (2011) merangkum itu semua dalam satu konsep yaitu indeks inklusi keuangan (index of financial inclusion). indeks ini sendiri digunakan untuk mengukur keinklusifan sistem keuangan di suatu negara. perhitungan ifi yang dikembangkan oleh sarma terbagi atas tiga dimensi yaitu: 1) penetrasi perbankan. penetrasi perbankan adalah indikator utama dalam inklusif keuangan. semakin banyak penggunanya maka semakin baik, karena itu sistem keuangan diharapkan dapat menjangkau secara luas di antara penggunanya. salah satu indikator penetrasi perbankan adalah proporsi populasi yang memiliki rekening dibank. 2) ketersediaan jasa keuangan. jasa keuangan harus tersedia bagi semua pengguna, dalam suatu sistem keuangan yang inklusif. ukuran ketersediaan ini adalah jumlah outlet (kantor cabang, atm, dan lain lain). ketersediaan jasa dapat dilihat dari jumlah cabang lembaga keuangan atau jumlah atm (automatic teller machine). tidak bisa dipungkiri atm memiliki peranan yang sangat penting bagi jasa perbankan dalam melayani kebutuhan masyarakat. kemudahan dalam mengambil tunai, penyetoran tunai serta digunakan untuk pembayaran membuat atm menjadi kebutuhan mutlak bagi masyarakat. dengan adanya kantor cabang dan atm, masyarakat akan semakin mudah menjangkau jasa keuangan. 3) penggunaan jasa perbankan. banyak alasan mengapa sekelompok orang masih belum memanfaatkan keberadaan jasa keuangan meskipun mereka memiliki akses terhadap jasa keuangan. di antaranya, jauhnya outlet bank dari tempat kediaman atau aktivitas sehari-hari, pengalaman buruk yang melibatkan penyedia determinan keuangan inklusif ... (lia nazliana, pipit, handriyani) 61 jasa. oleh sebab itu, memiliki rekening tidak cukup untuk menunjukkan sistem keuangan yang inklusif, namun masyarakat juga bisa menggunakannya. kegunaan tersebut di antaranya dapat dalam bentuk kredit, deposit, pembayaran, remitansi, dan transfer. berbagai studi tentang literasi keuangan telah dilakukan di beberapa negara. wachira dan kihiu (2012) telah melakukan studi tentang pengaruh literasi keuangan terhadap akses jasa keuangan di kenya pada tahun 2009, ternyata akses terhadap jasa keuangan tidak hanya dipengaruhi oleh tingkat literasi keuangan tetapi lebih besar dipengaruhi oleh tingkat pendapatan, jarak dari bank, usia, status perkawinan, jenis kelamin, ukuran rumah tangga, dan tingkat pendidikan. adapun studi beck et al. (2007) di 99 negara pada tahun 2003-2004 menunjukkan bahwa faktor yang menentukan jangkauan sektor keuangan sama dengan faktor yang menentukan kedalaman sektor keuangan. faktor-faktor tersebut adalah tingkat dari pembangunan yang diproksikan dengan gdp per kapita, kualitas institusi yang diproksikan dengan governance index, serta infromasi kredit yang diproksikan dengan credit information index. van der werff et al. (2013), dalam studinya di 31 negara oecd tahun 2011, menunjukkan bahwa faktor yang mempengaruhi proporsi populasi yang mengakses perbankan adalah ketimpangan pendapatan, jumlah atm dan bank per 100.000 populasi, tingkat kepercayaan masyarakat terhadap institusi yang diproksikan dengan corruption index dan gni per kapita. inklusi keuangan juga dipengaruhi oleh perkembangan teknologi. andrianaivo dan kpodar (2012) menganalisis 44 negara di benua afrika dengan menggunakan data tahun 1988-2007 terkait hubungan telepon seluler, inklusi keuangan dan pertumbuhan ekonomi. hasil studi tersebut menjelaskan bahwa pengembangan telepon seluler berkontribusi terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di afrika. selain itu, inklusi keuangan yang diukur dengan jumlah tabungan dan pinjaman per kapita menjadi salah satu jalur transmisi dari perkembangan telepon seluler terhadap pertumbuhan. peranan perbankan nasional perlu ditingkatkan sesuai fungsinya dalam menghimpun dan menyalurkan dana masyarakat dengan lebih memperhatikan pembiayaan kegiatan sektor perekonomian nasional dengan prioritas kepada koperasi, pengusaha kecil dan menengah, serta berbagai lapisan masyarakat tanpa diskriminasi sehingga akan memperkuat struktur perekonomian nasional. (kasmir, 2004:417) menurut susilo (2002) bank dalam sistem keuangan mempunyai peranan penting sebagai berikut: 1) pengalihan asset (assets transmutation), 2) transaksi (transaction), likuiditas (liquidity), 3) efisiensi (eficiency) selain peran dari perbankan diperlukan juga peran dari pemerintah yang dalam hal ini bertindak mengatur pemerataan pendapatan, stabilitas ekonomi serta mengeluarkan deregulasi di segala bidang, terutama yang berhubungan dengan perbankan dan perekonomian. peran pemerintah dalam pemerataan pendapatan masyarakat sangat penting, karena dengan peningkatan pendapatan ini akan mendorong meningkatnya pola konsumsi masyarakat dan juga tabungan masyarakat. saat ini yang memiliki kesempatan untuk menabung dengan jumlah yang banyak adalah orang kaya, karena mereka memiliki pendapatan yang lebih yang tidak habis untuk dikonsumsi, sementara orang miskin sendiri tidak memiliki kesempatan untuk menabung, karena sebagian besar pendapatan mereka telah habis untuk memenuhi kebutuhan sehari-hari. pendapatan perkapita merupakan personal income di mana pendapatan yang diterima rumah tangga dan bisnis non perusahaan. nilainya diperoleh dengan membagi nilai produk domestik regional bruto (pdrb) suatu tahun tertentu dengan jumlah penduduk pada tahun tersebut (mankiw, 2003:10). dengan adanya pendapatan perkapita suatu negara mengharap pembangunan ekonomi mengalami perkembangan dari tahun ke tahun, karena pendapatan perkapita suatu negara dapat membandingkan tingkat kesejahteraan masyarakat, serta dapat membandingkan laju perkembangan ekonomi yang telah dicapai oleh negara dari masa ke masa definisi produk domestik regional bruto adalah total nilai produksi barang dan jasa yang diproduksi di suatu wilayah (regional) tertentu dalam waktu tertentu biasanya dalam satu tahun. (data: badan pusat statistik). jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 1, april 2013: 58-66 62 menurut anwar (1992) produk domestik regional bruto adalah sejumlah nilai tambah produksi yang ditimbulkan oleh berbagai sektor atau lapangan usaha yang melakukan kegiatan usahanya di suatu daerah atau regional tanpa memilih atas faktor produksi. produk domestik regional bruto (pdrb) merupakan jumlah nilai tambah atau jumlah nilai barang atau jasa akhir yang dihasilkan oleh seluruh unit usaha dalam suatu daerah pada satu tahun. seperti yang telah kita ketahui bahwa pertumbuhan penduduk justru mendorong usaha pertumbuhan ekonomi, sebab kalau tidak ada pertumbuhan ekonomi niscaya standar hidup manusia pasti semakin merosot. jumlah penduduk adalah manusia dan bukan yang lainnya (misalnya: ternak, tumbuhan, dan sebagainya) yang melakukan produksi maupun konsumsi. tampak jelas bahwa penduduk merupakan faktor yang justru lebih serius di sektor pertanian dibanding sektor di luar pertanian. seperti yang telah kita ketahui bahwa pertumbuhan penduduk justru mendorong usaha pertumbuhan ekonomi, sebab kalau tidak ada pertumbuhan ekonomi niscaya standar hidup manusia pasti semakin merosot. (suparmoko, 1997:53) penduduk dipandang sebagai nasabah yang akan melakukan kegiatan menabung. seperti yang diutarakan oleh kasmir, bahwa dana terbesar sektor perbankan didominasi oleh dana pihak ketiga yaitu yang diperoleh dari masyarakat. (kasmir, 2004:19). makin banyak jumlah penduduk makin tinggi pula jumlah dana tabungan masyarakat yang dihimpun oleh sektor perbankan. metode penelitian studi ini merupakan studi dengan analisis deskriptif, yang bertujuan memberikan gambaran tentang faktor-faktor yang dipilih yang memiliki gambaran terhadap penerapan keuangan inklusif. studi ini dilakukan di sumatera utara mulai dari tahun 2010–2013. variabel yang diamati atau diukur: jumlah penduduk, jumlah angkatan kerja, jumlah kantor cabang bank dan produk domestik regional bruto atas dasar harga konstan (pdrb). jenis data yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah data sekunder dengan jenis data runtun waktu (time series) tahunan yang bersumber dari bank indonesia dan badan pusat statistik. di samping itu untuk data pendukung lainnya diperoleh dari buku-buku, jurnal-jurnal, makalah, dan hasil studi. jenis data yang digunakan dalam studi ini adalah data sekunder dengan jenis data runtun waktu (time series) tahunan mulai tahun 2010–2013, yang bersumber dari bank indonesia dan badan pusat statistik. di samping itu untuk data pendukung lainnya diperoleh dari buku-buku, jurnal-jurnal, makalah, dan hasil studi. adapun jenis data yang dibutuhkan dalam studi ini adalah jumlah penduduk, jumlah angkatan kerja, jumlah kantor cabang bank, dan produk domestik regional bruto atas dasar harga konstan (pdrb adhk). hasil dan pembahasan faktor yang digunakan dalam studi ini meliputi jumlah penduduk di sumut, jumlah angkatan kerja, jumlah kantor cabang, dan pdrb adhk sumut. tahun pengamatan yang dipilih adalah tahun 2010, 2011, 2012, dan 2013. pada tabel 1 disajikan tabel data variabel penelitian. potensi sumber daya untuk peningkatan perekonomian suatu daerah salah satunya adalah penduduk, khususnya penduduk produktif. peningakatan jumlah penduduk produktif dapat menstimulus peningkatan roda perekonomian. hal ini dikarenakan penduduklah yang melakukan kegiatan ekonomi seperti produksi dan konsumsi. dalam tabel 2 disajikan olah data deskriptif jumlah penduduk dan tabel 1. variabel penelitian, tahun 2010, 2011, 2012, dan 2013* variabel 2010 2011 2012 2013* jumlah angkatan kerja (>15thn) sumut (jiwa) 6.617.377 6.314.239 6.131.664 6.311.762 jumlah penduduk sumut (jiwa) 12.982.204 13.103.596 13.215.401 13.326.307 jumlah kantor cabang bank di sumut 174 178 192 199 pdrb adhk sumut (miliar rupiah) 118.640,90 126.587,62 134.461,50 142.537,12 determinan keuangan inklusif ... (lia nazliana, pipit, handriyani) 63 jumlah angkatan kerja di provinsi sumatera utara. berdasarkan tabel 2 dapat dilihat bahwa dalam kurun waktu dari tahun 2010 sampai dengan tahun 2013, jumlah penduduk di sumatera utara mengalami peningkatan sebesar 344.103 jiwa, atau sebesar 2,58 persen. ini merupakan potensi yang dimiliki untuk merespon dan menjalankan kebijakan ekonomi dan roda perekonomian di sumatera utara. jumlah penduduk terbesar terjadi pada tahun 2013. namun tidak keseluruhan jumlah penduduk tersebut yang memilki peran aktif dalam mendukung roda perekonomian khususnya dalam mensukseskan program inklusif keuangan. hanya penduduk yang masuk dalam kategori produktif saja yang digolongkan sebagai sumber daya manusia yang mendukung keuangan inklusif, yaitu di atas umur 15 tahun sampai umur 55 tahun. berdasarkan data yang disajikan di atas diketahui bahwa jumlah angkatan kerja mengalami penurunan dari tahun 2010 sampai dengan tahun 2013. jumlah angkatan kerja tertinggi terjadi tahun 2010 sebesar 6.617.377 jiwa dan jumlah angkatan kerja terendah justru terjadi pada tahun 2012 sebesar 6.131.664 jiwa. berikut ini akan disajikan grafik perubahan jumlah penduduk dan jumlah angkatan kerja yang terjadi diu sumatera utara selama kurun waktu 2010 sampai dengan tahun 2013. penurunan jumlah angkatan kerja yang terjadi di sumatera utara dipengaruhi oleh beberapa faktor diantaranya perpindahan penduduk angkatan kerja yang awalnya berdomisili di sumatera utara ke kota yang menawarkan pekerjaan lebih baik atau lebih sesuai, pernikahan, dan rendahnya penawaran kerja yang tersedia di sumatera utara terutama di daerahdaerah. gambar 1. jumlah penduduk sumut (jiwa) periode tahun 2010 sampai dengan tahun 2013 gambar 2. jumlah angkatan kerja (>15thn) sumut (jiwa) tidak dapat dipungkiri bahwa penawaran lapangan pekerjaan masih terpusat pada kotakota tertentu, tidak merata di seluruh kota di sumatera utara. hal ini nantinya akan berpengaruh terhadap terjadinya kesenjangan pendapatan yang terjadi di sumatera utara. kesenjangan pendapatan dapat menjadi indikator terjadinya kesenjangan penerapan kebijakan keuangan inklusif yang telah dirumuskan oleh pemerintah. berikut ini akan disajikan perbantabel 2. jumlah penduduk sumut (jiwa) dan jumlah angkatan kerja (>15thn) sumut (jiwa) variabel 2010 2011 2012 2013* average max min jumlah penduduk sumut (jiwa) 12.982.204 13.103.596 13.215.401 13.326.307 13.156.877 13.326.307 12.982.204 jumlah angkatan kerja (>15thn) sumut (jiwa) 6.617.377 6.314.239 6.131.664 6.311.762 6.343.761 6.617.377 6.131.664 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 1, april 2013: 58-66 64 dingan jumlah angkatan kerja dengan pendapatan di sumatera utara. berdasarkan data yang tersaji pada tabel di atas dapat dilihat bahwa pdrb adhk di sumatera utara terus mengalami peningkatan, dengan rata-rata pdrb adhk sebesar 130.556,79 miliar rupiah. nilai pdrb adhk terendah terjadi pada tahun 2010 sebesar 118.640,90 miliar rupiah, dan nilai pdrb adhk tertinggi terjadi pada tahun 2013 sebesar 142.537,12 miliar rupiah. peningkatan pdrb adhk yang terjadi di sumatera utara selama kurun waktu 2010 sampai dengan 2013 adalah sebesar 16,76 persen. berikut ini grafik yang menggambarkan perubahan pdrb adhk dalam miliar rupiah gambar 3. pdrb adhk sumut (miliar rupiah) tahun 2010 sampai dengan 2013 peningkatan pdrb adhk yang terjadi di sumatera utara menjadi ukuran bahwa terjadi peningkatan perekonomian di sumatera utara dan peningkatan peran masyarakat terhadap produksi dan konsumsi. penurunan angkatan kerja yang tersedia di sumatera utara sebesar 4,84 persen ternyata tidak menyebabkan penurunan jumlah pendapatan masyarakat. ini bisa menjadi indikasi bahwa mungkin terdapat pusat-pusat pertumbuhan ekonomi baru yang terjadi di sumatera utara, atau terjadi peningkatan lapangan pekerjaan yang lebih baik dari tahun ke tahun. memang perlu studi lebih lanjut untuk menyimpulkan fenomena tersebut. namun dari penjelasan di atas dapat kita katakan bahwa tersedianya jumlah penduduk produktif dan peningkatan pendapatan daerah di sumatera utara dapat menjadi stimulus penerapan enam pilar kebijakan keuangan inklusif di sumatera utara. berdasarkan informasi data yang pernah disampaikan oleh bank indonesia pada evolusi kerangka kebijakan financial inclusion pada tahun 2013 dapat dilihat bahwa provinsi sumatera utara masih dalam kategori underbanked. ini artinya walaupun dari tahun 2010 sampai dengan 2013, pendapatan daerah di sumatera utara mengalami peningkatan namun peran masyarakat terhadap pemakaina jasa keuangan perbankan masih relatif kecil. hal ini bisa menjadi indikasi bahwa: masih banyak informasi keuangan yang belum terserap secara merata, jika pun penetrasi keuangan telah dilakukan namun belum menyeluruh dan tersebar secara luas, ini juga bisa menjadi indikasi bahwa kepercayaan masyarakat terhadap perbankan masih rendah. sebagai acuan lain berikut ini akan disajikan data perkembangan perbankan di sumatera utara terutama perkembangan kantor cabang bank-bank nasional yang ada di sumatera utara. dalam kurun waktu 2010 sampai dengan tahun 2013, jumlah kantor cabang bank di sumatera utara mengalami peningkatan sekitar 12,56%. tahun 2013 jumlah kantor cabang yang telah dibuka di sumatera utara sebesar 199 tabel 3. jumlah angkatan kerja (>15thn) sumut (jiwa) dan pdrb adhk sumut (miliar rupiah) tahun 2010 sampai dengan tahun 2013 variabel 2010 2011 2012 2013 average max min jumlah angkatan kerja (>15thn) sumut (jiwa) 6,617,377 6,314,239 6,131,664 6,311,762 6,343,761 6,617,377 6,131,664 pdrb adhk sumut (miliar rupiah) 18,640.90 126,587.62 134,461.50 142,537.12 130,556.79 142,537.12 118,640.90 determinan keuangan inklusif ... (lia nazliana, pipit, handriyani) 65 kantor. peningkatan pembukaan kantor cabang ini konsisten terus mengalami peningkatan dari tahun 2010 sampai tahun 2013. gambar 4. jumlah kantor cabang bank di sumut periode tahun 2010 sampai dengan tahun 2013 ini menjadi indikasi bahwa perkembangan perbankan di sumatera utara cukup baik. ini bisa juga dikatakan bahwa faktor yang mendukung penerapan suksesnya kebijakan keuangan inklusif di sumatera utara telah tersedia. hanya perlu pengamatan dan studi lebih lanjut seberapa luas penyebaran penggunaan jasa keuangan perbankan. perlu diteliti lebih lanjut tentunya tentang efektif tidaknya penetrasi yang telah dilakukan masing-masing bank, bi dan ojk di wilayah-wilayah pelosok di sumatera utara. simpulan berdasarkan uraian di atas dapat diketahui bahwa peningkatan jumlah penduduk tidak mencerminkan jumlah angkatan kerja yang berperan dalam perekonomian suatu daerah. peningkatan jumlah pendapatan di sumatera utara selama kurun waktu 2010 sampai dengan tahun 2013 mengalami peningkatan. demikian pula dengan jumlah pembukaan kantor cabang bank yang beroperasi di sumatera utara. ini menjadi indikasi bahwa beberapa faktor yang dapat mendukung penerapan enam pilar kebijakan pelaksanaan keuangan inklusif dapat terlaksana. namun perlu dilakukan studi lebih lanjut untuk lebih mendalami lagi masing masing pilar keuangan inklusif indonesia. berdasarkan simpulan di atas, maka perlu dilakukan studi lebih lanjut terhadap kesiapan penerapan enam pilar kebijakan keuangan inklusif di sumatera utara. terutama terkait dengan efektivitas pelaksanaan penetrasi terkait pemahaman jasa keuangan perbankan hingga ke pelosok-pelosok daerah di sumatera utara. karena terdapat indikasi ketidakmerataan penggunaan informasi dan jasa keuangan sampai pada pelosok-pelosok daerah yang terdapat di sumatera utara. daftar pustaka andrianaivo m, kpodar k. (2012). mobile phones, financial inclusion, and growth. review of economics and institution. vol.3 no.2 ang jb. (2010). finance and inequality: the case of india. shouthern economic journal. 76(3): 738-761 anwar, arsyd m. dkk. (1992). ekonomi indonesia prospek jangka pendek dan sumber pembiayaan pembangunan. jakarta: penerbit gramedia pustaka utama. beck, t. demirguc-kunt a, levine r. (2007). finance, inequality and the poor. journal of economic growth. 12:27-49. beck, t. demirguc-kunt a, peria msm. (2006). reaching out: access to and use of banking tabel 4. jumlah kantor cabang bank di sumut dan pdrb adhk sumut (miliar rupiah) dalam kurun waktu 2010 sampai dengan tahun 2013* variabel 2010 2011 2012 2013* average max min jumlah kantor cabang bank di sumut 174 178 192 199 186 199 174 pdrb adhk sumut (miliar rupiah) 118.640,90 126.587,62 134.461,50 142.537,12 130.556,79 142.537,12 118.640,90 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 1, april 2013: 58-66 66 services across country. journal of financial economics. 85:234-266. badan pusat statistik. (2013). tersedia pada http://www.bps.go.id bank indonesia. (2013). statistik perbankan indonesia tersedia pada http://www.bi. go.id/id/statistik/perbankan/indonesia/ default.aspx demirguc-kunt a, beck t, honohan p. (2008). finance for all? policies and pitfalls in expanding access. washington, dc (us): world bank. kasmir. (2004). dasar-dasar perbankan, edisi pertama, cetakan kedua, jakarta: penerbit pt. raja grafindo persada, mankiw, n. gregory. (2003). pengantar ekonomi, edisi kedua, jilid 2. jakarta: penerbit erlangga. ototritas jasa keuangan. 2013. laporan triwulanan ojk. tersedia pada: http://www. ojk.go.id/ sarma mandira, jesim pais. (2011). financial inclusion and development. journal of international development. 23:613-628. shahbaz m., islam f. (2011). financial development and income inequality in pakistan: an application of ardl approach. munich personal repec archive (mpra). 17:13. sarma mandira. (2012). index of financial inclusion – a measure of financial sector inclusiveness. berlin working papers on money, finance, trade and development. working paper no.07/2012. suparmoko. (1997). ekonomi pembangunan, edisi ketiga. yogyakarta: penerbit ugm. susilo, sri y, dkk. (2002). bank dan lembaga keuangan lain. jakarta: penerbit salemba empat. ummah. (2012). analisis keterkaitan inklusi keuangan dengan pembangunan di asia. bogor: departemen ilmu ekonomi, fakultas ekonomi dan manajemen, institut pertanian bogor. van der werff ad, hogarth jm, peach nd. (2012). a cross-country analysis of financial inclusion within the oecd. consumer interest annual. volume 59. wachira mi, kihiu en. (2012). impact of financial literacy on access to financial services in kenya. international journal of business an social sience. vol 3 no.19. european commission report. (2008). financial services provision and prevention of financial exclusion. world bank: working paper no 6025. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 1, april 2017, hlm. 86-103 doi: 10.18196/jesp.18.1.4013 eksternalitas tempat pengolahan sampah terpadu (tpst) piyungan kabupaten bantul daerah istimewa yogyakarta tri widyaningsih, ahmad ma’ruf fakultas ekonomi dan bisnis universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta jalan lingkar selatan, tamantirto, kasihan, bantul, yogyakarta 55183 email korespondensi: triwidya30@gmail.com naskah diterima: januari 2017; disetujui: april 2017 abstract: this research is to analyze both the positive and negative externalities of tpst piyungan. the objects of this research are the people who lived around tpst piyungan within the distance of less then 1 km from tpst piyungan. the primary data are used from questionnaires, observation and interviews with 120 respondents using census method. the analysis in this research is descriptive statistics, income analysis, cost of illness, replacement cost and value added. the results indicate that the existence of tpst piyungan influenced toward the economical and social aspects as well as the environment of the people around it. the positive externalities value estimation is rp109.847.940,00/year and the negative externalities value for the people are rp71.343.000,00/year. inorganik waste utilization of tpst piyungan, can give value added rp632,00/kg for scavengers and rp392,00/kg for collectors. keywords: externalities, cost of illness, replacement cost, value added, integrated waste management facility (tpst) jel classification: h23, i15, f64 abstrak: penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis eksternalitas tpst piyungan baik eksternalitas positif maupun negatif. obyek penelitian ini adalah masyarakat yang tinggal di sekitar tpst piyungan pada jarak ≤ 1 km dari tpst piyungan. pengumpulan data primer menggunakan kuesioner, observasi dan wawancara, dengan 120 orang responden menggunakan metode sensus. alat analisis yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah statistik deskriptif, analisis pendapatan, nilai tambah, cost of illness dan replacement cost. hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa keberadaan tpst piyungan memberikan pengaruh terhadap aspek ekonomi, sosial dan lingkungan masyarakat sekitarnya. estimasi nilai eksternalitas positif yang diperoleh sebesar rp109.847.940,00/tahun dan estimasi nilai eksternalitas negatif bagi masyarakat adalah sebesar rp71.343.000,00 /tahun. pemanfaatan sampah anorganik dari tpst piyungan menghasilkan nilai tambah sebesar rp632,00/kg pada pemulung dan rp392,00/kg pada pengepul. kata kunci: eksternalitas, cost of illness, replacement cost, nilai tambah, tempat pengolahan sampah terpadu (tpst) klasifikasi jel: h23, i15, f64 eksternalitas tempat pengolahan sampah terpadu (tpst)… (tri widyaningsih, ahmad ma’ruf) 87 pendahuluan permasalahan sampah merupakan salah satu tantangan yang harus dihadapi oleh setiap kabupaten/kota di indonesia. berdasarkan pada data dari kementerian lingkungan hidup (2012) dalam kajian timbulan dan komposisi sampah perkotaan (2015), volume sampah di indonesia pada tahun 2010 mencapai 200.000 ton/hari, dan mengalami trend naik secara signifikan yakni pada tahun 2012 volume sampah di indonesia menjadi 490.000 ton/hari atau 178.850.000-ton dalam satu tahun. peningkatan jumlah penduduk beriringan dengan peningkatan konsumsi dan aktivitas ekonomi yang dilakukannya, hal ini akan berakibat pada peningkatan jumlah sampah yang dihasilkan. di kota metropolitan dengan jumlah penduduk lebih dari 1 juta jiwa, mampu menghasilkan sampah 1.300 ton/hari dan di kota besar dengan jumlah penduduk antara 500.000–1.000.000 orang rata-rata menghasilkan sampah 480 ton/hari (kajian timbulan dan komposisi sampah perkotaan blh diy, 2015). daerah istimewa yogyakarta termasuk salah satu kota besar di indonesia dengan kepadatan penduduk yang cukup tinggi. tingginya jumlah penduduk inilah yang menyebabkan terjadinya peningkatan jumlah timbulan sampah di daerah istimewa yogyakarta. berdasarkan pada hasil survei timbulan sampah yang dilakukan oleh blh daerah istimewa yogyakarta tahun 2015, ratarata timbulan sampah dari perorangan di daerah istimewa yogyakarta adalah sebanyak 0,44 kg/orang/hari. kepadatan penduduk daerah istimewa yogyakarta terus meningkat, sehingga jumlah sampah yang dihasilkan juga akan semakin menigkat. pada tahun 2011, dengan jumlah rumah tangga sebanyak 920.689 di daerah istimewa yogyakarta mampu menghasilkan timbulan sampah sebesar 10.327m3/hari. kemudian pada tahun 2012, dengan jumlah rumah tangga sebanyak 998.328, menghasilkan timbulan sampah sebesar 11.538 m3/ hari. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa dengan semakin bertambahnya jumlah penduduk, produksi sampah yang dihasilkan juga semakin meningkat. permasalahan sampah ini harus segera ditangani, agar tidak menimbulkan masalah yang lainnya (data slhd diy, 2011; data slhd diy, 2012). berdasarkan pada profil badan lingkungan hidup (blh) kota yogyakarta tahun 2013 menyebutkan bahwa sampah yang terangkut ke tempat pembuangan akhir sampah terbanyak adalah dari kota yogyakarta yakni sebanyak 34,89%, sleman sebesar 13,17%, kulon progo 7,20%, dan bantul sebesar 1,91% (mulasari dkk., 2016). salah satu upaya yang dilakukan oleh pemerintah daerah istimewa yogyakarta dalam menanganani masalah sampah tersebut adalah dengan mendirikan tempat pengolahan sampah terpadu (tpst) piyungan. menurut hifdziyah (2011) tempat pembuangan akhir sampah (tpas) merupakan salah satu barang publik yang disediakan oleh pemerintah, begitu pula dengan tpst piyungan yang termasuk ke dalam jenis barang publik. pengelolaan sampah juga merupakan suatu barang publik (coad, 2000 dalam jati, 2013). salah satu karakteristik dari barang publik adalah barang yang manfaatnya dirasakan bersama dan dikonsumsikan bersama tetapi dapat terjadi kepadatan serta dapat dijual melalui pasar atau langsung oleh pemerintah (mangkoesoebroto, 2000 dalam hifdziyah, 2011). sampah yang diangkut ke tpst piyungan berasal dari kabupaten bantul, kabupaten sleman dan kota yogyakarta. sampah yang diangkut tpst piyungan terus mengalami peningkatan setiap tahunnya. pada tahun 2015 volume sampah yang masuk ke tpst piyungan mencapai 158.599 ribu kg dan setiap harinya tpst piyungan menampung 400-500-ton sampah. pengelolaan tpst piyungan dilakukan oleh pemerintah daerah istimewa. keberadaan tpst piyungan sebagai salah satu barang publik dapat menimbulkan eksternalitas baik positif maupun negatif. 88 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 1, april 2017: 86-102 eksternalitas juga merupakan salah satu penyebab terjadinya kegagalan pasar (hifdziyah, 2011). lokasi tpst piyungan yang berdekatan dengan pemukiman warga. masyarakat yang tingal di sekitar tpst piyungan menerima berbagai eksternalitas akibat keberadaan tpst piyungan tersebut. eksternalitas merupakan sebuah keterkaitan antara suatu kegiatan dengan kegiatan lain yang tidak melalui mekanisme pasar dimana dari kegiatan tersebut menimbulkan manfaat dan biaya bagi pihk diluar pelaksana kegiatan tersebut. eksternalitas lingkungan dapat diartikan sebagai manfaat dan biaya yang ditunjukkan oleh perubahan fisik hayati. misalnya polusi air yang disebabkan limbah sebuah perusahaan, polusi ini termasuk dalam eksternalitas lingkungan, dimana polusi tersebut telah merubah baik secara fisik maupun hayati sungai yang berada di sekitar perusahaan tersebut (juliansah, 2010). dalam menangani keberadaan tempat pembuangan akhir sampah sebagai sumber pencemaran lingkungan dan dapat menimbulkan gangguan kesehatan bagi masyarakat, terutama masyarakat yang tinggal di sekitar tpst piyungan, maka diperlukan sebuah pengelolaan yang tepat agar eksternalitas negatif dari keberadaan tpst piyungan dapat diminimalkan. berdasarkan pada adanya eksternalitas baik positif maupun negatif yang dirasakan oleh masyarakat, maka perlu untuk dilakukan penelitian mengenai eksternalitas dari keberadaan tpst piyungan terhadap masyarakat di sekitarnya, untuk selanjutnya dapat dilakukan upaya mengembangkan eksternalitas positif dan mengatasi eksternalitas negatif yang dirasakan masyarakat sekitar tpst piyungan serta bagaimana rantai nilai dan nilai tambah sampah anorganik yang diterima pemulung dan pengepul dari tpst piyungan. rantai nilai merupakan suatu cara untuk memandang suatu bisnis sebagai sebuah rantai aktivitas yang mengubah input menjadi output yang bernilai bagi pelanggan. rantai nilai mencakup margin laba karena markup diatas biaya perusahaan untuk menyediakan aktivitas bernilai tambah umumnya merupakan bagian dari harga yang dibayarkan oleh pembeli (apriliyanti, 2014). metode penelitian penelitian ini dilaksanakan pada bulan juni-desember 2016 di tempat pengolahan sampah terpadu (tpst) piyungan, kabupaten bantul, daerah istimewa yogyakarta meliputi observasi awal hingga pengumpulan data dengan kuesioner dan wawancara. subjek penelitian ini adalah masyarakat yang tinggal di sekitar tpst piyungan pada radius ≤ 1 km dari lokasi tpst piyungan. jenis data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data primer dan data sekunder. data primer diperoleh dengan cara survei yakni melalui kuesioner, observasi dan wawancara. data sekunder diperoleh dari dokumen dan laporan dari kantor pengelola tpst piyungan serta dari pihak-pihak terkait dengan penelitian ini. untuk menguji alat ukur yang digunakan serta data yang diperoleh dilakukan uji validitas dan uji reliabilitas. teknik pengambilan sampel dalam penelitian ini menggunakan metode sensus, dimana seluruh populasi digunakan sebagai sumber data (adinata, 2011). jumlah kk di sekitar tpst piyungan pada radius ≤ 1 km tahun 2016 adalah 120 kk. responden penelitian ini adalah 120 orang yang merupakan perwakilan dari setiap kk. uji validitas dan reliabilitas uji validitas yang digunakan untuk menunjukkan sejauh mana daftar pertanyaan dapat mengukur dampak eksternalitas dari tpst piyungan menggunakan rumus product moment coefficient of correlation sebagai berikut: ( ) ( ) √ ( ) ( ) eksternalitas tempat pengolahan sampah terpadu (tpst)… (tri widyaningsih, ahmad ma’ruf) 89 keterangan: x = nomor item y= skor total n=jumlah responden uji reliabilitas dilakukan untuk mengetahui ketepatan dari alat ukur yang digunakan (kuncoro, 2013). perhitungan reliabilitas harus dilakukan hanya pada item-item yang sudah memiliki validitas. instrumen dikatan reliabel jika nilai cronbach alpha > 0,6 (sari, 2015). analisis data analisis data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah analisis statistik deskriptif, analisis nilai tambah, analisis pendapatan, cost of illness dan replacement cost. 1. analisis eksternalitas tpst piyungan. analisis statistik deskriptif digunakan untuk menganalisis bentuk-bentuk eksternalitas dari tpst piyungan dengan cara mendeskripsikan data yang terkumpul sesuai dengan fakta di lapangan. 2. estimasi nilai eksternalitas positif dan negatif dari tpst piyungan. estimasi nilai eksternalitas positif diperoleh dengan menggunakan analisis pendapatan dengan menjumlahkan pendapatan bersumber langsung dari tpst piyungan yang diterima masyarakat sekitar yakni masyarakat yang berkerja sebagai pemulung, buruh pengepul, ternak, masyarakat setempat yang bekerja sebagai karyawan tpst piyungan dan pengepul. adapun rumus pendapatan (senja, 2010): keterangan: tr = total penerimaan tc = total biaya = pendapatan usaha ternak menurut bujagunasti (2009), estimasi total eksternalitas positif dihitung dengan rumus: estimasi total = i1+i2+…… + in keterangan: in = rata-rata pendapatan masyarakat yang bersumber dari tpst piyungan estimasi eksternalitas negatif diperoleh dengan menggunakan metode cost of illness yaitu biaya pengobatan yang dikeluarkan akibat adanya pencemaran dan replacement cost atau biaya pengganti, dalam penelitian ini biaya pengganti dihitung dari besarnya biaya untuk memperoleh air bersih akibat adanya pencemaran air pada sumur masyarakat. a. replacement cost (biaya pengganti). biaya pengganti digunakan untuk mengestimasi eksternalitas negatif akibat tercemarnya air sumur warga, sehingga masyarakat harus menggunakan sumber air lain. biaya pengganti konsumsi air bersih adalah biaya yang dikeluarkan untuk membeli air dengan tanki, galon, pam dan sumber air bersih lainnya. penggunaan air bersih dihitung berdasarkan rata-rata konsumsi responden setiap bulannya. menurut (bujagunasti, 2009) biaya pengganti untuk memperoleh air dihitung dengan cara sebagai berikut: tpair = ∑ba keterangan: tpair = total biaya pembelian air bersih/tahun (rp) ba = biaya pembelian air bersih/rumah tangga/tahun (rp) b. cost of illness (biaya berobat). eksternalitas negatif diestimasi dengan menggunkan metode cost of illness atau biaya pengobatan yang ditanggung oleh masyarakat untuk mengobati penyakit yang mereka derita akibat nyamuk, lalat, pencemaran udara dan air serta sumber-sumber penyakit lain yang berasal dari tpst piyungan. total biaya yang dihitung hanyalah biaya langsung. biaya langsung adalah biaya yang dikeluarkan untuk mengobati penyakit yang diderita antara lain meliputi biaya perawatan rumah sakit, perawatan saat penyembuhan dan obat-obatan. data yang digunakan untuk melakukan estimasi ini menggunakan data primer dari responden dengan format sebagi berikut (pahlefi, 2014): bp = bprt × intensitas tbp = ∑bp 90 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 1, april 2017: 86-102 keterangan: bp = biaya pengobatan/rumah tangga/tahun (rp) bprt = biaya pengobatan/rumah tangga (rp) intensitas = intensitas penyakit/tahun tbp = total biaya pengobatan/tahun (rp) total estimasi nilai eksternalitas negatif diperoleh dengan menjumlahkan total biaya pengobatan dan total biaya pembelian air bersih (pahlefi, 2014), dengan rumus sebagai berikut: total nilai eksternalitas negatif = tpair + tbp keterangan: tpair = total biaya pembelian air bersih/tahun (rp) tbp = total biaya pengobatan/tahun (rp) c. analisis nilai tambah analisis nilai tambah digunakan untuk mengetahui nilai tambah sampah anorganik dari tpst piyungan dalam kegiatan daur ulang sampah yang diterima oleh pemulung dan pengepul. nilai tambah suatu produk adalah perbedaan nilai serta pertambahan nilai suatu produk setelah mengalami proses pengolahan dalam suatu proses produksi, dalam proses pengolahan nilai tambah dapat diartikan sebagai selisih antara nilai produk dengan nilai biaya bahan baku dan input lainnya tidak termasuk tenaga kerja (kairupan dkk., 2016). dalam analisis nilai tambah sampah anorganik dari tpst piyungan, dapat digunakan rumus nilai tambah sebagai berikut: ntp = na – (bb+bp+bbp) = na-ba keterangan : ntp = nilai tambah (rp) na = nilai akhir (rp) ba = biaya antara (rp) bb = biaya bahan baku (rp) bp = biaya penyusutan alat (rp) bbp = biaya bahan penolong (rp) (kairupan dkk., 2016) hasil dan pembahasan uji kualitas instrumen dan data uji validitas ini dilakukan dengan menggunakan rumus product moment coefficient of correlation dan dikatakan valid jika dari hasil uji diperoleh nilai korelasi antara skor setiap item dengan skor total signifikan pada tingkat 5% dan setaip item memiliki korelasi (r) dengan dengan skor total masing-masing variabel ≥ 0,25 (basuki, 2015). hasil uji validitas dari masing-masing dampak yaitu ekonomi, sosial dan lingkungan menunjukkan kesimpulan valid. uji reliabilitas dilakukan untuk mengetahui ketepatan dari alat ukur yang digunakan dalam penelitian. perhitungan reliabilitas harus dilakukan hanya pada itemitem yang sudah memiliki validitas. suatu variabel dikatakan reliabel jika memiliki nilai cronbach’s alpha > 0,6 (sari,2015). dari hasil uji reliabilitas dapat dilihat bahwa nilai cronbach’s alpha dari masing-masing variabel lebih besar dari 0,6, maka dapat disimpulkan bahwa keseluruhan instrumen yang digunakan dalam variabel ini adalah reliabel. estimasi nilai eksternalitas positif dan negatif tpst piyungan. a. estimasi nilai eksternalitas positif. keberadaan tpst piyungan menimbulkan eksternalitas positif bagi masyarakat yang tinggal di sekitar tpst piyungan, eksternalitas positif yang diterima masyarakat antara lain terbukanya lapangan kerja baru, sehingga banyak masyarakat yang mendapatkan penghasilan bersumber dari keberadaan tpst piyungan tersebut. pekerjaan tersebut antara lain menjadi pemulung, pengepul, buruh pengepul, menjadi karyawan tpst piyungan dan peternak. selain itu keberadaan tpst piyungan juga meningkatkan tumbuhnya lapangan usaha baru, seperti adanya jasa pengangkut sampah dan warung makan. dalam estimasi nilai eksternalitas positif ini, yang diperhitungkan hanyalah manfaat langsung yang diterima masyarakat dari tpst piyungan yakni berupa pendapatan yang eksternalitas tempat pengolahan sampah terpadu (tpst)… (tri widyaningsih, ahmad ma’ruf) 91 diperoleh dari bekerja sebagai pemulung, pengepul, buruh pengepul, masyarakat setempat yang bekerja sebagai karyawan tpst dan pendapatan dari ternak. tabel 1. pendapatan bersumber langsung dari tpst piyungan no. sumber pendapatan pendapatan/bulan (rp/bulan) pendapatan/tahun (rp/tahun) 1. pemulung 1.173.636 14.083.632 2. pengepul 3.515.385 42.184.620 3. buruh pengepul 993.200 11.918.400 4. ternak 1.817.229 21.807.253 5. karyawan tpst 1.654.545 19.854.540 total (rp) 9.153.995 109.847.940 sumber: data primer diolah, 2016 dari tabel 1 diatas eksternalitas positif yang dirasakan masyarakat sekitar tpst piyungan sebesar rp109.847.940,00 per tahun. nilai ini diperoleh dari penjumlahan pendapatan rata-rata total masyarakat yang bersumber dari tpst piyungan selama satu tahun. bekerja sebagai pengepul memberikan pendapatan yang besar, dibandingkan dengan pendapatan dari sumber yang lainnya. ternak juga memberikan manfaat bagi pendapatan masyarakat, pemeliharaan ternak di tpst piyungan sangat mudah sebab tidak perlu mencarikan pakan bagi ternak tersebut. ternak yang dimiliki masyarakat di tpst piyungan, dalam jangka waktu 1-1,5 tahun rata-rata bertambah 1 ekor. ternak ini juga dijadikan masyarakat sebagai tabungan yang terus bertambah nilai asetnya dan bisa dijual sewaktu ada kebutuhan yang memerlukan dana besar. tingkat kesejahteraan masyarakat disekitar tpst piyungan mengalami peningkatan semenjak dibangunnya tpst piyungan. sebelum adanya tpst piyungan, mayoritas masyarakat bekerja sebagai buruh tani dan petani. pendapatan yang diperoleh juga sangat minim, namun semenjak adanya tpst piyungan kehidupan masyarakat menjadi lebih baik dan tidak ada warga yang menganggur. estimasi nilai eksternalitas negatif tpst piyungan. eksternalitas negatif yang dialami oleh masyarakat akibat keberadaan tpst piyungan diestimasi dengan menggunakan dua metode yaitu biaya pengganti (replacement cost) dan biaya pengobatan (cost of illness). 1) biaya pengganti (replcement cost). metode yang digunakan untuk mengestimasi nilai eskternalitas negatif dari adanya pencemaran air adalah dengan metode replacement cost dari adanya biaya pengganti untuk sumber air bersih. adapun sumber air bersih yang digunakan masyarakat dapat dilihat pada gambar berikut: sumber: data primer diolah, 2016 gambar 1. sumber air bersih masyarakat sekitar tpst piyungan 1% 1% 87% 1% 1% 1% 1% 6% 1% air mineral kemasan dirigen pam galon pam & galon pam& tanki tanki sumur sumur & pam 92 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 1, april 2017: 86-102 sebagian besar masyarakat yakni sebanyak 104 keluarga (87%) memenuhi kebutuhan air bersih hanya dari pam, dikarenakan sebagian besar air sumur yang dimiliki masyarakat sudah tidak digunakan lagi sejak adanya tpst piyungan. meskipun masih terdapat 7 keluarga (6%) yang menggunakan air sumur, mereka tetap menggunakan air sumur dengan alasan air sumur mereka tidak tercemar limbah dari tpst sebab sumur mereka berada jauh dari aliran limbah tpst dan berada pada daerah yang lebih tinggi dari tpst. estimasi nilai eksternalitas negatif dari biaya pengganti ini dihitung dari besarnya biaya yang dikeluarkan masyarakat untuk memenuhi kebutuhan air bersih. dari 120 responden terdapat 8 keluarga yang tidak mengeluarkan biaya untuk memenuhi kebutuhan air bersih sebab mereka menggunakan air sumur dan air dengan dirigen yang bersumber dari saudaranya, sehingga tidak mengeluarkan biaya untuk memenuhi kebutuhan air bersih. tabel 3. biaya pengganti konsumsi air bersih jenis sumber air jumlah responden (kk) total pengeluran (rp/bulan) total biaya pengganti (rp/tahun) pam 107 4.328.000 51.936.000 galon 3 193.500 2.322.000 tanki 2 180.000 2.160.000 air mineral kemasan 1 165.000 1.980.000 total biaya konsumsi air bersih yang dikeluarkan masyarakat 58.398.000 sumber: data primer diolah, 2016 estimasi nilai eksternalitas negatif dari biaya pembelian air bersih yang dikeluarkan masyarakat sekitar tpst piyungan adalah sebesar rp58.398.000,00 per tahun. angka ini diperoleh dengan menjumlahkan seluruh pengeluaran rata-rata masyarakat untuk memenuhi kebutuhan air bersih. dari 112 responden terdapat 104 keluarga yang hanya mengeluarkan biaya untuk air pam, terdapat 1 keluarga yang menggunakan pam dan galon, 1 keluarga yang menggunakan pam dan tanki, 1 keluarga menggunakan pam dan sumur, 1 keluarga yang menggunakan tanki saja, 2 keluarga menggunakan galon saja dan 1 keluarga yang menggunakan air mineral dalam kemasan sebagai sumber air minum. sehingga total terdapat 107 keluarga yang menggunakan pam, 3 keluarga menggunakan galon, 2 keluarga menggunakan tanki, dan 1 keluarga menggunakan air mineral kemasan. 2) biaya pengobatan (cost of illness). keberadaan tpst piyungan tidak hanya menimbulkan eksternalitas positif tetapi juga eksternalitas negatif. eksternalitas negatif yang ditimbulkan dari adanya tpst piyungan antara lain pencemaran air dan udara, serta banyaknya vektor penyakit seperti lalat dan nyamuk. namun, bagi sebagian masyarakat terutama yang menjadikan tpst sebagai sumber pendapatan, keberadaan tpst piyungan tidak memberikan eksternalitas negatif apapun. akan tetapi tidak dapat dipungkiri jika dengan adanya dampak dari tpst piyungan secara tidak langsung dapat mengganggu kesehatan. bau yang ditimbulkan dari sampah di tpst sangat dirasakan oleh masyarakat yang tinggal di sekitarnya. berdasarkan keterangan dari rumah sakit rajawali citra (2016), mayoritas penyakit yang sering diderita oleh masyarakat sekitar tpst piyungan adalah ispa, myalgia, dermatitis, dyspepsia dan sakit kepala. estimasi nilai eksternalitas terhadap peningkatan biaya berobat akibat pencemaran yang terjadi disekitar lokasi tpst piyungan cukup sulit dilakukan karena adanya kebijakan pengobatan eksternalitas tempat pengolahan sampah terpadu (tpst)… (tri widyaningsih, ahmad ma’ruf) 93 gratis dari pihak tpst piyungan yang bekerjasama dengan rumah sakit rajawali citra. namun, pengobatan gratis ini hanya dilakukan dua kali dalam satu tahun. terkadang masyarakat menderita sakit diluar waktu adanya pengobatan gratis tersebut, sehingga masyarakat tetap harus mengeluarkan biaya untuk pengobatan. adapun biaya yang dikeluarkan untuk menyelenggaran pengobatan gratis ini adalah sebagai berikut: tabel 4. biaya pengobatan gratis bagi warga masyarakat sekitar tpst piyungan tahun 2015-2016 no. tahun pengeluaran biaya (rp) 1 2015 pemeriksaan dokter dan obat/farmasi penunjang medik 17.250.000 2 2016 pemeriksaan dokter dan obat/farmasi penunjang medic 18.000.000 total 35.250.000 sumber: dokumen kantor pengelola tpst piyungan, 2016 dalam penelitian ini, biaya pengobatan setiap penyakit dihitung berdasarkan biaya pengobatan yang dikeluarkan dalam satu keluarga, tidak hanya biaya pengobatan untuk responden saja tetapi juga biaya pengobatan untuk anggota keluarga yang menjadi tanggungan responden. berdasarkan wawancara yang dilakukan kepada responden penyakit yang sering mereka keluhkan adalah ispa dan sesak napas, serta ada beberapa responden yang bekerja sebagai pemulung sering mengalami sakit kulit atau dermatitis. penyakit kulit yang diderita para pemulung disebabkan dari air limbah sampah yang masuk kedalam sepatu mereka, saat mereka bekerja. berikut adalah biaya pengobatan total yang dikeluarkan oleh masyarakat dalam satu tahun terakhir: tabel 5. biaya pengobatan responden akibat pencemaran dari tpst piyungan tahun 2016 jenis penyakit jumlah penderita total biaya pengobatan / tahun (rp/tahun) ispa 35 12.455.000 penyakit kulit 4 490.000 total 12.945.000 sumber: data primer diolah, 2016 pada tabel 5 biaya pengobatan akibat adanya pencemaran dari tpst piyungan sebesar rp12.945.000,00 per tahun. nilai tersebut didapat dari biaya pengobatan masyarakat yang menderita penyakit akibat pencemaran dari tpst piyungan selama satu tahun terakhir. penyakit yang diderita masyarakat antara lain ispa dan dermatitis atau penyakit kulit. penyakit yang banyak diderita adalah ispa yaitu sebanyak 35 responden. bahkan terdapat responden yang harus menjalani rawat inap di rumah sakit karena menderita penyakit ispa tersebut dan ada pula responden yang menjalani pengobatan rutin setiap 1 bulan sekali karena menderita ispa. selain ispa, masyarakat juga sering mengalami penyakit kulit dan gatalgatal, penyakit ini banyak diderita oleh masyarakat yang bekerja sebagai pemulung yakni sebanyak 3 orang dan anak-anak yang menderita penyakit kulit terdapat 1 orang. anak-anak yang menderita penyakit kulit ini, tempat tinggalnya sangat dekat dengan tpst piyungan, serta sering bermain disekitar tpst piyungan. 94 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 1, april 2017: 86-102 estimasi nilai total dari eksternalitas negatif tpst piyungan didapat dengan menjumlahkan semua biaya yang dikeluarkan masyarakat, yakni biaya pengganti dan biaya pengobatan. tabel 6. total nilai eksternalitas negatif tpst piyungan pengeluaran biaya (rp) total (rp/tahun) biaya pengganti 58.398.000 biaya pengobatan 12.945.000 total nilai kerugian masyarakat 71.343.000 sumber: data primer diolah, 2016 hasil estimasi menunjukkan bahwa total nilai eksternalitas akibat keberadaan tpst piyungan bagi masyarakat sebesar rp71.343.000,00/ tahun. biaya tersebut merupakan biaya pengobatan dan biaya pengganti yakni biaya pengobatan akibat penyakit yang diindikasikan kuat karena adanya pencemaran dari tpst piyungan dan biaya pengganti yang dikeluarkan untuk memenuhi kebutuhan air bersih. berdasarkan hasil perhitungan estimasi nilai eksternalitas positif dan negatif, diperoleh hasil bahwa estimasi nilai eksternalitas positif tpst piyungan lebih besar daripada estimasi nilai eksternalitas negatifnya. estimasi nilai eksternalitas positif tpst piyungan sebesar rp109.847.940,00 per tahun, sementara estimasi nilai eksternalitas negatif tpst piyungan sebesar rp71.343.000,00 per tahun. tingkat kepedulian masyarakat terhadap kesehatan dan kebersihan masih rendah, serta sistem kekebalan tubuh manusia yang sudah mampu beradaptasi dengan lingkungan sekitar juga menjadi salah satu faktor penyebab minimnya kerugian yang dirasakan masyarakat. hal ini dapat terlihat dari sedikitnya masyarakat yang menderita penyakit pernafasan dan kulit akibat pencemaran dari tpst piyungan. hal ini sesuai dengan penelitian yang dilakukan oleh pahlefi (2014), dimana estimasi nilai eksternalitas positif dari keberadaan tpa rawa kucing lebih besar daripada nilai eksternalitas negatifnya, akan tetapi pengelolaan sampah yang baik harus tetap diupayakan untuk menjaga kelestarian lingkungan. kelestarian lingkungan harus tetap dijaga untuk keberlangsungan hidup generasi mendatang. eksternalitas negatif yang dirasakan masyarakat tidak hanya dirasakan pada masa sekarang tetapi juga pada masa yang akan datang (bujagunasti, 2009). eksternalitas negatif yang dirasakan masyarakat saat ini dinilai masih kecil daripada eksternalitas positif. kurangnya kepedulian masyarakat terhadap kesehatan dan kebersihan lingkungan serta besarnya manfaat yang diperoleh masyarakat berupa peningkatan pendapatan, membuat masyarakat menilai bahwa kerugian dari tpst piyungan sangat kecil. namun, perlu disadari bahwa eksternalitas positif yang diterima masyarakat saat ini dapat menjadi lebih kecil dibandingkan dengan eksternalitas negatif yang akan diterima masyarakat akibat keberadaan tpst piyungan dimasa yang akan datang berupa pencemaran lingkungan. rantai nilai dan nilai tambah sampah anorganik dari tpst piyungan. proses pemanfaatan sampah anorganik dari tpst piyungan untuk di daur ulang berimplikasi pada adanya nilai tambah dari sampah tersebut, sehingga harga jual sampah menjadi lebih tinggi daripada sampah tersebut dibiarkan menumpuk di tpst piyungan. dalam proses pemanfaatan sampah dari tpst piyungan terdapat rantai nilai yang dapat memberikan nilai tambah bagi semua pihak yang terlibat dalam kegiatan aliran rantai nilai tersebut. rantai nilai produk merupakan aktivitas yang berawal dari bahan mentah sampai dengan penanganan purna jual. rantai nilai eksternalitas tempat pengolahan sampah terpadu (tpst)… (tri widyaningsih, ahmad ma’ruf) 95 mencakup aktivitas yang terjadi karena hubungan dengan pemasok dan hubungan dengan konsumen (baihaqi dkk., 2014). rantai pasok adalah suatu proses atau aktivitas dalam pendistribusian barang mulai dari bahan baku hingga produk jadi dan sampai pada konsumen akhir (anwar, 2011 dalam cakswidryandani, 2016). berdasarkan hasil penelitian maka diperoleh pola rantai pasok dari pemanfaatan sampah anorganik untuk daur ulang, seperti pada gambar 2. gambar 2. pola rantai pasok sampah tpst piyungan pemulung yang bekerja di tpst piyungan kurang lebih berjumlah 450 orang dan pengepul yang menerima barang bekas dari pemulung berjumlah 15 orang. alur rantai pasok sampah anorganik tpst piyungan dimulai dari adanya sampah rumah tangga, restoran, hotel, pasar dan fasilitas umum yang berasal dari kabupaten bantul, kabupaten sleman dan kota yogyakarta yang masuk ke tpst piyungan. sampah yang masuk tpst piyungan tersebut terdiri dari sampah organik dan anorganik. sampah organik dimanfaatkan sebagai pakan ternak dan pupuk kompos. sampah organik yang digunakan sebagai pakan ternak memberikan manfaat bagi pemilik ternak, dimana pemilik ternak tidak kesulitan untuk mencarikan pakan bagi ternak mereka sebab ternak yang mereka miliki digembalakan di tpst piyungan. sampah organik yang diolah menjadi pupuk kompos oleh pengelola tpst piyungan dimanfaatkan sendiri untuk pupuk tanaman yang ada di sekitar tpst piyungan, kompos yang dihasilkan belum diperjualbelikan dikarenakan jumlah produksi yang masih sedikit dan belum adanya standar operasional (sop) dari pihak pemerintah daerah. sampah anorganik dimanfaatkan oleh pemulung untuk dilakukan proses daur ulang sampah. rantai pasok sampah anorganik dimulai dari adanya sampah anorganik yang berasal dari rumah tangga, pasar dan lain-lain yang masuk ke tpst piyungan-pemulungpengepul-pengepul besar-pabrik daur ulang sampah. aliran pemanfaatan sampah anorganik dari tpst piyungan ke pembeli akhir akan mengubah nilai dari sampah tersebut. nilai sampah mengalami perubahan pada setiap terminal penjualan, dalam penelitian ini yaitu para pengepul sampah. perubahan nilai sampah terjadi karena adanya pemrosesan pada sampah tersebut. 96 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 1, april 2017: 86-102 pemulung harga jual rp700,00/kg pabrik daur ulang sampah harga beli: rp4.000,00/kg pengepul besar harga beli: rp1.200,00/kg harga jual: rp4.000,00/kg pengepul kecil harga beli: rp700,00/kg harga jual: rp1.200,00/kg pemulung harga jual rp700,00/kg pabrik daur ulang sampah harga beli: rp1.300,00/kg pengepul besar harga beli: rp1.200,00/kg harga jual: rp1.300,00/kg pengepul kecil harga beli: rp700,00/kg harga jual: rp1.000,00/kg jenis sampah yang pada umumnya diperjualbelikan di daerah penelitian yaitu plastik, kertas, tulang, logam, botol air mineral, karung dan lain-lain. komoditas utama sampah yang banyak diperjualbelikan dan dijual secara rutin setiap minggu yaitu plastik dan kertas. plastik terdiri dari berbagai macam jenis seperti kantong plastik, plastik ember, plastik gelas air mineral, botol air mineral dan masih banyak lagi dengan rata-rata harga jual yang sama. kertas juga terdiri dari beberapa macam antara lain kardus, sak semen, buram, arsip dan duplek dengan rata-rata harga jual yang sama. harga sampah plastik dan kertas dari pemulung rata-rata sama karena sampahsampah tersebut masih bercampur dan belum dipisah sesuai jenisnya (wawancara dengan bapak sutris (pengepul), 20 november 2016). berikut ini adalah aliran rantai nilai dari sampah plastik dan kertas:  rantai nilai sampah plastik   rantai nilai sampah kertas (sumber: data primer, 2016) gambar 3. aliran rantai nilai/ nilai jual sampah anorganik pada kegiatan daur ulang sampah pada gambar 3 menunjukkan aliran rantai nilai dari dua komoditas utama sampah yang pada umumnya diperjualbelikan di kawasan sekitar tpst piyungan. aliran rantai nilai sampah tersebut dapat dijelaskan sebagai berikut: 1. berdasarkan hasil penelitian diketahui bahwa harga jual sampah plastik dan sampah kertas rata-rata rp700,00 per kg. pemulung menjual sampah hasil memulung tersebut seminggu sekali. hasil yang diterima oleh pemulung ditentukan berdasarkan jumlah sampah yang mereka kumpulkan, dimana hal ini dipengaruhi oleh kekuatan fisik dari masing-masing pemulung. tidak semua jenis sampah bisa dijual setiap seminggu sekali, untuk sampah jenis logam, kaleng dan kaca dijual setiap satu bulan sekali dan tidak menentu eksternalitas tempat pengolahan sampah terpadu (tpst)… (tri widyaningsih, ahmad ma’ruf) 97 dikarenakan jumlahnya yang tidak terlalu banyak. 2. pada pengepul, sampah mengalami beberapa pemrosesan, yakni sampah dipilah sesuai dengan jenisnya dan dibersihkan. kemudian para pengepul tersebut menjual sampah kepada pengepul yang lebih besar dengan harga rata-rata rp1.200,00 per kg untuk sampah plastik dan rp1.000,00 untuk sampah kertas. meskipun pengepul kecil mengambil selisih pembelian dan penjualan yang tidak terlalu besar yakni hanya rp500,00 untuk sampah plastik dan rp300,00 untuk sampah kertas, namun jumlah sampah yang dijual dalam satu kali penjualan cukup banyak yakni 1,53-ton untuk sampah plastik dan 2 hingga 4ton untuk sampah kertas. penjualan dilakukan rata-rata 1 minggu sekali, dengan sistem pegepul besar datang kepada pengepul dan mengambil barang tersebut. pengepul rata-rata juga memiliki tenaga kerja yang bertugas untuk memilah sampah dan melakukan pemrosesan terhadap sampah tersebut. 3. pada tahap selanjutnya, pengepul besar melakukan pemrosesan lebih lanjut yakni memilah sampah sesuai dengan jenisnya dan melakukan penggilingan untuk sampah plastik, yang kemudian akan dijual ke pabrik-pabrik daur ulang sampah. harga jual sampah dari pengepul besar ke pabrik yaitu rp4.000,00 per kg untuk sampah plastik dan rp1.300,00 per kg untuk sampah kertas. pengepul besar melakukan penjualan sampah ke pabrik sebanyak 2 kali dalam seminggu dengan rata-rata penjualan 6 hingga 7-ton dalam sekali penjualan. untuk sampah plastik pada umumnya dijual ke pabrik yang berada di surabaya. pada pengepul besar ini, barang rosok yang diperjualbelikan tidak hanya dari tpst piyungan, namun dari berbagai daerah yang ada di yogyakarta. karyawan yang dimiliki pengepul besar bisa mencapai 200 orang (wawancara dengan karyawan ud. aneka plastik (pengepul besar), 26 november 2016). analisis nilai tambah dari sampah dalam penelitian ini dilakukan pada tahap pemulung dan pengepul. sampah yang menjadi komoditas utama adalah plastik dan kertas karena jumlahnya yang lebih banyak dibandingkan jenis sampah yang lain, serta penjualan sampah plastik dan kertas dilakukan secara rutin setiap minggu sementara jenis sampah lain seperti logam dijual satu bulan sekali dan tidak menentu. harga jual dan harga beli sampah dari pemulung kepada pengepul dan dari pengepul kepada pengepul besar diasumsikan sama pada setiap pengepul yang ada di lokasi penelitian. harga sampah di lokasi penelitian sangat dipengaruhi oleh harga yang ditentukan oleh pabrik daur ulang, sehingga rata-rata harga sampah plastik dan kertas sama disetiap pengepul kecil. pemulung yang mencari barang bekas di tpst piyungan memerlukan beberapa peralatan saat bekerja, seperti sepatu boot, keranjang dan gancu. untuk karung tempat hasil sampah yang sudah dikumpulkan, para pemulung tidak perlu mengeluarkan biaya sebab mereka hanya mengambil karung bekas dari tpst piyungan. serta hasil yang mereka peroleh dipengaruhi oleh kekuatan fisik mereka, sehingga mereka mengeluarkan biaya untuk konsumsi saat bekerja. biaya-biaya yang harus ditanggung oleh pemulung dalam bekerja antara lain biaya penyusutan peralatan, dan biaya makan saat bekerja. sampah yang dikumpulkan pemulung dari tpst piyungan bermacam-macam antara lain plastik, kertas, logam, kaleng, dan lain-lain. namun, untuk barang yang rutin mereka jual setiap minggunya adalah plastik dan kertas, sebab dua jenis barang ini yang jumlahnya paling banyak dibandingkan jenis sampah yang lainnya. logam dan kaleng dijual setiap satu bulan sekali dan tidak menentu, sebab jumlahnya sedikit. dalam penelitian ini, nilai 98 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 1, april 2017: 86-102 tambah sampah yang dihitung adalah nilai tambah dari sampah plastik dan kertas. tabel 7. biaya penggunaan peralatan pemulung di tpst piyungan nama alat nilai penyusutan (rp/minggu) sepatu boot 9.792 keranjang 5.306 gancu 4.542 total 19.640 sumber: data primer diolah, 2016 tabel 7 diatas memperlihatkan rata-rata total biaya penggunaan peralatan yang dikeluarkan pemulung di tpst piyungan. penjualan barang bekas dari pemulung ke pengepul kecil dilakukan setiap satu minggu sekali. nilai penyusutan dari sepatu boot per minggu adalah rp9.792,00, keranjang rp5.306,00 dan gancu rp4.542,00. pemulung bekerja dengan memanfaatkan sampah anorganik yang ada di tpst piyungan untuk memperoleh pendapatan. modal utama bekerja sebagai pemulung adalah kekuatan fisik, untuk menjaga kekuatan fisik saat bekerja pemulung mengeluarkan biaya untuk makan. dalam penelitian ini biaya konsumsi yang dihitung hanyalah biaya konsumsi pada saat bekerja saja. tabel 8. penerimaan pemulung di tpst piyungan uraian jumlah (rp/minggu) 1. penerimaan tr= 291,477 kg x 700 204.034 2. biaya-biaya biaya penyusutan alat 19.640 biaya konsumsi saat kerja 62.000 total biaya (tc) 81.640 3. pendapatan (tr-tc) 122.394 sumber: data primer diolah, 2016 rata-rata biaya yang dikeluarkan pemulung dalam satu minggu sebesar rp81.640,00. jenis sampah yang paling banyak dikumpulkan pemulung adalah plastik dan kertas, dengan jumlah sampah yang dikumpulkan rata-rata 291,477 kg per minggu. untuk rata-rata harga penjualan sampah plastik dan kertas dari pemulung kepada pengepul kecil adalah rp700,00 per kg, sehingga penerimaan pemulung per minggu rata-rata adalah rp204.034,00. setelah dikurangi dengan biaya-biaya, pendapatan bersih pemulung ratarata adalah rp122.394,00 per minggu. penerimaan pemulung dalam satu bulan bisa lebih besar dari nilai tersebut, sebab ada beberapa jenis sampah yang dijual setiap satu bulan sekali seperti logam, kaleng, tulang dan kaca. harga jual logam tembaga rata-rata rp40.000,00 per kg dan merupakan jenis sampah yang memiliki harga jual tertinggi. perhitungan analisis nilai tambah sampah yang dikumpulkan pemulung sekitar tpst piyungan adalah sebagai berikut: ntp = na-ba = 204.034-19.640 = 184.394 berdasarkan perhitungan tersebut nilai tambah yang didapat dari mengumpulkan sampah ini adalah rp184.394,00 per minggu, dengan jumlah sampah rata-rata sebanyak 291,477 kg per minggu, maka nilai tambah dari sampah adalah sebesar rp632,00/kg artinya untuk setiap satu kilogram sampah dari tpst piyungan dapat memberikan penambahan nilai sebesar rp632,00 pada pemulung. nilai tambah yang diterima pemulung cukup besar sebab pemulung memanfaatkan sampah yang tidak bernilai menjadi barang yang bisa memberikan penghasilan dan biaya yang dikeluarkan pemulung tidak terlalu besar. pemulung eksternalitas tempat pengolahan sampah terpadu (tpst)… (tri widyaningsih, ahmad ma’ruf) 99 mengubah bahan baku yang tidak bernilai jual menjadi barang yang memiliki nilai jual. masyarakat sekitar tpst piyungan yang berprofesi sebagai pengepul, sebagian besar termasuk kedalam kategori pengepul kecil yang menjual hasil rosok ke pengepul besar. pengepul yaitu orang yang membeli barang bekas dari pemulung untuk kemudian dilakukan beberapa tahap pemrosesan dan dijual kepada pengepul barang bekas yang lebih besar. dalam pemrosesan sampah dari pemulung, pengepul menggunakan tenaga kerja lokal setempat, dengan sistem pembayaran per hari. tabel 9. biaya penggunaan peralatan pada pengepul di sekitar tpst piyungan nama alat nilai penyusutan (rp/minggu) timbangan 3.252 alat press 8.459 total 11.711 sumber: data primer diolah, 2016 dalam usaha pemanfaatan sampah dari tpst piyungan, pengepul menggunakan beberapa alat untuk memudahkan pekerjaannya. tabel 9 diatas memperlihatkan rata-rata total biaya penggunaan peralatan yang dikeluarkan pengepul di sekitar tpst piyungan. penjualan barang bekas dari pengepul ke pengepul besar dilakukan setiap satu minggu sekali. nilai penyusutan dari timbangan per minggu adalah rp3.252,00 dan alat press rp8.459,00. bahan baku utama dalam usaha ini adalah sampah yang dikumpulkan oleh pemulung dari tpst piyungan, untuk kemudian dilakukan beberapa pemrosesan oleh pengepul tersebut. jumlah sampah yang paling banyak dikumpulkan oleh pemulung adalah plastik dan kertas. sehingga dalam penelitian ini bahan baku utama bagi pengepul adalah plastik dan kertas, dengan asumsi tidak terdapat penyusutan berat bahan baku antara sebelum dan sesudah pemrosesan seperti yang terjadi pada saat musim kemarau. berdasarkan keterangan yang diberikan oleh pengepul, sampah atau rosok yang dijual pemulung kepada pengepul pada saat musim kemarau tidak terjadi penyusutan berat setelah dilakukan pemrosesan. tabel 10. rincian pengeluaran biaya bahan baku dan bahan penolong pada pengepul dalam 1 minggu jenis bahan baku jumlah (kg/minggu) harga / kg jumlah biaya (rp/minggu) a. bahan utama 1.plastik 2.788 700 1.951.600 2. kertas 2.051 700 1.435.700 jumlah 4.839 3.387.300 b. bahan penolong jumlah (buah/minggu) biaya rafia (rp/minggu) 1. rafia 4,46 50.538 total 3.437.838 sumber: data primer diolah, 2016 dari tabel 10 diatas, dapat dilihat bahwa jumlah biaya rata-rata bahan baku dan bahan penolong yang dikeluarkan pengepul adalah sebesar rp3.437.838,00 per minggu. bahan penolong yang digunakan pengepul antara lain rafia, keranjang dan karung. untuk karung dan 100 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 1, april 2017: 86-102 keranjang para pengepul tidak mengeluarkan biaya, sebab sampah yang dijual pemulung sudah menggunakan karung dan terkadang menggunakan keranjang. tujuan dari sebuah usaha adalah untuk memperoleh keuntungan yang besar dan berkelanjutan. keuntungan dari usaha ini adalah selisih dari penerimaan total dengan total biaya yang dikeluarkan. tabel 11. penerimaan dan keuntungan pengepul di sekitar tpst piyungan uraian jumlah (rp/minggu) 1. penerimaan (tr) plastik = 2.788 kg x 1.200 3.345.600 kertas = 2.051 kg x 1.000 2.051.000 total penerimaan (tr) 5.396.600 2. biaya-biaya biaya penyusutan alat 11.711 biaya bahan baku 3.437.838 biaya tenaga kerja 1.050.000 biaya bahan penolong 50.538 total biaya (tc) 4.550.087 3. pendapatan (tr-tc) 846.513 sumber: data primer diolah, 2016 keseluruhan biaya yang dikeluarkan pengepul dalam satu minggu rata-rata sebesar rp4.550.087,00. dengan asumsi tidak terdapat penyusutan berat sampah maka dengan input sampah seberat 4.839 kg per minggu akan menghasilkan output sampah bersih dengan jumlah yang sama, hal ini seperti yang terjadi pada musim kemarau tidak terdapat penyusutan berat sampah (sumber: wawancara denga bapak sokiran (pegepul), 26 november 2016). harga penjualan rata-rata dari pengepul kepada pengepul besar adalah rp1.200,00 per kg untuk sampah plastik dan rp1.000,00 per kg untuk sampah kertas, maka penerimaan pengepul per minggu adalah rp5.396.000,00. setelah dikurangi dengan biaya-biaya keuntungan bersih pengepul kecil adalah rp846.513,00 per minggu. perhitungan analisis nilai tambah usaha daur ulang sampah yang dilakukan pengepul sekitar tpst piyungan adalah sebagai berikut: ntp = na-ba = 5.396.600-3.499.632 = 1.896.968 berdasarkan perhitungan tersebut nilai tambah yang didapat dari usaha ini adalah rp1.896.968,00 per minggu, dengan jumlah bahan baku sampah rata-rata sebanyak 4.839 kg per minggu, maka nilai tambah dari sampah adalah sebesar rp392,00/kg artinya untuk setiap satu kilogram bahan baku sampah dari pemulung dapat memberikan penambahan nilai sebesar rp392,00 pada pengepul. usaha pemanfaatan sampah anorganik dari tpst piyungan selain bisa mengurangi jumlah timbunan sampah di tpst juga mampu meningkatkan pendapatan masyarakat. nilai tambah yang diperoleh pengepul lebih rendah dibandingkan dengan nilai tambah yang diterima pemulung, karena pengepul menanggung biaya bahan baku yang cukup tinggi dan biaya bahan penolong. tinggi rendahnya nilai tambah dipengaruhi oleh penggunaan biaya produksi, harga jual dan volume produksi (baihaqi dkk., 2014). nilai tambah sampah anorganik dari tpst piyungan merupakan salah satu eksternalitas positif dari tpst piyungan, eksternalitas tempat pengolahan sampah terpadu (tpst)… (tri widyaningsih, ahmad ma’ruf) 101 karena dapat meningkatkan pendapatan bagi pemulung dan pengepul. nilai tambah yang diterima oleh pemulung lebih besar daripada nilai tambah yang diterima oleh pengepul hal ini disebabkan karena biaya yang dikeluarkan pengepul lebih besar dibandingkan dengan biaya yang dikeluarkan pemulung. adanya nilai tambah dari sampah anorganik dalam usaha daur ulang sampah tersebut, mampu meningkatkan pendapatan masyarakat disekitar tpst piyungan, khususnya pada pemulung dan pengepul yang pada akhirnya akan meningkatkan kesejahteraan masyarakat. simpulan penetapan tpst piyungan menjadi solusi untuk permasalahan sampah di daerah istimewa yogyakarta yang jumlahnya semakin meningkat, menimbulkan berbagai macam eksternalitas bagi masyarakat di sekitarnya. berdasarkan penelitian tentang analisis eksternalitas tpst piyungan diperoleh hasil sebagai berikut: 1. eksternalitas positif dari keberadaan tpst piyungan yaitu a). terbukanya lapangan kerja, b). terbuka peluang usaha bagi masyarakat, c). peningkatkan pendapatan, d). mengurangi jumlah pengangguran, e). meningkatkan kepedulian dan kerjasama antara masyarakat pendatang dengan masyarakat setempat, f). peningkatan pembangunan dan perbaikan sarana prasarana desa. eksternalitas negatif dari tpst piyungan adalah terjadinya penurunan kualitas lingkungan, yakni a). pencemaran udara dan air, serta b). penurunan kebersihan lingkungan. eksternalitas negatif yang sangat dirasakan masyarakat adalah pencemaran udara berupa bau sampah. 2. estimasi nilai eksternlitas positif yang diterima masyarakat sekitar tpst piyungan berupa peningkatan pendapatan adalah sebesar rp109.847.940,00 per tahun dan estimasi nilai eksternalitas negatif akibat keberadaan tpst piyungan yang berupa pengeluaran biaya pengganti dan biaya pengobatan adalah sebesar rp71.343.000,00 per tahun. jadi, nilai eskternalitas positif dari tpst piyungan lebih besar daripada nilai eksternalitas negatifnya, dengan estimasi nilai eksternalitas sebesar rp38.504.940,00 per tahun. 3. berdasarkan rantai nilai sampah dari tpst piyungan, usaha daur ulang sampah dapat memberikan nilai tambah pada sampah tersebut dan usaha daur ulang sampah memiliki prospek yang menjanjikan untuk dapat meningkatkan pendapatan masyarakat dan angkatan kerja. pola rantai nilai sampah anorganik tpst piyungan yaitu pemulung-pengepul-pengepul besarpabrik daur ulang. sampah yang dikumpulkan oleh pemulung dari tpst piyungan mampu memberikan nilai tambah sebesar rp632,00 per kg sampah untuk pemulung dan rp392,00 per kg sampah untuk pengepul. daftar pustaka adinata, a, 2011, pengaruh kompensasi terhadap kinerja pegawai dinas pendapatan daerah kota bogor, skripsi. bogor:institut pertanian bogor. apriliyanti, triana, 2014, ananlisis rantai nilai (value chain) tahu kuning di sentra industri tahu kecamatan adiwerna, kabupaten tegal, skripsi. semarang: fakultas ekonomika dan bisnis universitas diponegoro. badan lingkungan hidup diy, 2015, kajian timbulan dan komposisi sampah perkotaan studi di kawasan permukiman diy 2015, badan lingkungan hidup diy, yogyakarta. badan lingkungan hidup diy, statistik lingkungan hidup daerah (slhd) diy tahun 2011, http://blh.jogjaprov.go.id/pocontent/uploads/lslhd_diy_2011.pd f, diakses pada tanggal 28 oktober 2016 pk 19.00 wib http://blh.jogjaprov.go.id/po-content/uploads/lslhd_diy_2011.pdf http://blh.jogjaprov.go.id/po-content/uploads/lslhd_diy_2011.pdf http://blh.jogjaprov.go.id/po-content/uploads/lslhd_diy_2011.pdf 102 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 18, nomor 1, april 2017: 86-102 badan lingkungan hidup diy, statistik lingkungan hidup daerah (slhd) diy tahun 2012, http://blh.jogjaprov.go.id/pocontent/uploads/data-slhd-diy2012.pdf diakses pada tanggal 28 oktober 2016 pk 19.00 wib. badan pusat statistik, daerah istimewa yogyakarta dalam angka tahun 2015, http://yogyakarta.bps.go.id/website/p df_publikasi/daerah-istimewayogyakarta-dalam-angka-2015.pdf diakses pada tanggal 9 oktober 2016 pk 21.12 wib baihaqi, akhad, dkk., 2014, “analisis rantai nilai dan nilai tambah kakao petani di kecamatan poya bakong dan geurodong pase kabupaten aceh utara”, jurnal agrisep vol (15) no.2. basuki, agus tri, 2015, regresi dalam penelitian ekonomi dan bisnis, danisa media, yogyakarta. bujagunasti, yudi, 2009, estimassi manfaat dan kerugian masyarakat akibt keberadaan tempat pembuangan akhir studi kasus di tpa bantar gebang, skripsi. bogor: fakultas ekonomi dan manajemen institut pertanian bogor. hifdziyah, lisanatul, 2011, analisis penurunan kualitas lingkungan di sekitar tempat pembuangan akhir sampah galuga kabupaten bogor jawa barat, skripsi. bogor: departemen ekonomi sumberdaya dan lingkungan.fakultas ekonomi dan manajemen, institut pertanian bogor. jati, t. k. (2013). peran pemerintah boyolali dalam pengelolaan sampah lingkungan permukiman perkotaan (studi kasus: perumahan bumi singkil permai). jurnal wilayah dan lingkungan, 1(1), 1-16. juliansah, marthin hadi, 2010, analisis keberadaan tempat pengelolaan sampah terpadu (tpst) bantar gebang bekasi, tesis. depok: magister perencanaan dan kebijakan publik fakultas ekonomi, universitas indonesia. kairupan, grace a., dkk., 2016, “analisis nilai tambah akarwangi pada industri minyak atsiri di kabupaten minahasa utara”, jurnal universitas sam ratulangi manado, http://ejournal.unsrat.ac.id/index.php/. diakses pada tanggal 28 november 2016 pk. 10.08 wib. mulasari, a., dkk., 2016, “analisis situasi permasalahan sampah kota yogyakarta dan kebijakan penanggulangannya”. jurnal kesehatan masyarakat. pahlefi, reza, 2014, estimasi nilai eksternalitas dari tempat pemrosesan akhir sampah (studi kasus tpa rawa kucing kota tangerang), skripsi. bogor: fakultas ekonomi dan manajemen institut pertanian bogor. putri, septi hermaya, 2015, analisis ekonomi dan lingkungan kegiatan pertambangan nikel (studi kasus: pt. antam (persero)tbk.ubpn sultra), skripsi. bogor: fakultas ekonomi dan manajemen institut pertanian bogor. rendi, 2016, pengaruh debit pada proses aerasi dan komposisi tebal media filtrasi terhadap nilai bod, cod, dan tss pada air lindi (studi kasus di tpa piyungan, bantul), skripsi. yogyakarta: fakultas sains terapan, institut sains & teknologi akprind yogyakarta. sari, andiny khilsa fatma, 2015, eksternalitas atas keberadaan desa wisata candran, skripsi, yogyakarta: fakultas ekonomi universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta. senja, puput yunita, 2010, potensi peternakan sapi pedaging untuk meningkatkan kesejahteraan masyarakat di tempat pembuangan akhir (tpa) putri cempo mojosongo, solo, skripsi. bogor: institut pertanian bogor. http://blh.jogjaprov.go.id/po-content/uploads/data-slhd-diy-2012.pdf http://blh.jogjaprov.go.id/po-content/uploads/data-slhd-diy-2012.pdf http://blh.jogjaprov.go.id/po-content/uploads/data-slhd-diy-2012.pdf http://yogyakarta.bps.go.id/website/pdf_publikasi/daerah-istimewa-yogyakarta-dalam-angka-2015.pdf http://yogyakarta.bps.go.id/website/pdf_publikasi/daerah-istimewa-yogyakarta-dalam-angka-2015.pdf http://yogyakarta.bps.go.id/website/pdf_publikasi/daerah-istimewa-yogyakarta-dalam-angka-2015.pdf http://ejournal.unsrat.ac.id/index.php/ jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 1, april 2018, hlm. 75-84 doi: 10.18196/jesp.19.1.4276 memahami karakter kemiskinan perkotaan… (pitri yandri, bambang juanda) 75 memahami karakter kemiskinan perkotaan dengan pendekatan observasional pitri yandri1, bambang juanda2 1program studi s1 manajemen stie ahmad dahlan jakarta jl. ciputat raya, no. 77, cirendeu, ciputat, kota tangerang selatan email korespondensi: p.yandri@gmail.com 2dept. ilmu ekonomi, fakultas ekonomi dan manajemen ipb gedung fem lt. 2, jl. kamper, ipb dramaga, bogor email korespondensi: bbjuanda@yahoo.com abstract: conceptually, there are many views in viewing the concept of poverty. so the issues may include social, economic, cultural and even political aspects. in spatial aspect, national statistics bureau (bps) has also made distinctions between rural and urban poverty since 1999. this variance sometimes makes it difficult for undergraduate researchers to conduct an assessment of this issue. therefore, this article attempts to analyze and strive to understand the character of urban poverty by using fourteen measures used by bps. fourteen indicators were then tested in the field using survey and observation methods. the results of the survey and observation are discussed further in this a rticle key words: urban, bias perkotaan, permukiman kumuh, migrasi, kemiskinan struktural jel classification: e60, i3, r1 pendahuluan hasil suatu kegiatan pembangunan dapat dinilai dengan berbagai cara dan tolok ukur, baik dengan pendekatan ekonomi maupun pendekatan non ekonomi. pengukuran atau penilaian dengan pendekatan ekonomi pada umumnya menggunakan tingkat pendapatan sebagai tolok ukur. tolok ukur pendapatan yang dimaksud antara lain pendapatan per kapita, distribusi pendapatan dan jumlah penduduk miskin atau tingkat kemiskinan (todaro, 2003). di sisi lain sen (2001) merumuskan kemiskinan sebagai kondisi selain kekurangan pangan, seperti kurangnya nutrisi, buta huruf, tiadanya kebebasan sipil dan hak-hak berdemokrasi, diskriminasi, pengidapan penyakit, dan berbagai bentuk perampasan hakhak milik (entitlement) pribadi adalah bentukbentuk kemiskinan yang menciptakan penderitaan. untuk alasan tersebut, perhatian sen terletak pada pentingnya redistribusi aset non-fisik, seperti kesehatan dan pendidikan. dengan indikator yang lebih kongkrit, kemiskinan menurut sach dalam amir (2007) ditandai atau tidak dimilikinya: (1) human capital (kesehatan, pendidikan dan nutrisi yang baik); (2) bussines capital; (3) infrastructure (jalan, listrik, air bersih, sanitasi, perlindungan lingkungan dan sarana publik lainnya); (4) natural capital; (5) public institutional capital (administrasi publik yang dikelola dengan baik, sistem pengadilan yang bersih dan polisi yang baik); dan (6) knowledge capital (modal ilmu pengetahuan). field (2003) dan fukuyama (2002) bahkan menambahkan indikator social capital (kepercayaan, nilai-nilai, norma dan agama) dalam melihat miskin/tidak miskinya sebuah bangsa. ketiadaan salah satu apalagi semuanya itu berakibat orang semakin terperangkap dalam jebakan kemiskinan. bahkan banyak pula kemiskinan 76 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 1, april 2018: 75-84 yang disebabkan karena kebijakan-kebijakan yang diambil negara dalam mengatur pemerintahan. misalnya saja pembangunan jalan tol yang menggusur pemilik tanah dan lain sebagainya (amir, 2007). ulasan konseptual ringkas tersebut menggambarkan bahwa ukuran kemiskinan begitu beragam dan multidimensional (alkire & santos, 2014). betapa tidak, hampir seluruh parameter sosial, budaya, ekonomi, dan bahkan politik dinilai penting dalam upaya memahami dan mengukur kemiskinan. hasil studi empirik sangadji et al. (2015) dan rejekiningsih (2011), misalnya menemukan bahwa karakter kemiskinan pada obyek studi yang diamatinya bersifat kultural. nurwati (2008) bahkan menyatakan parameterparameternya (pendidikan, jenis pekerjaan, gender, akses terhadap pelayanan dasar, infrastruktur serta lokasi geografis) berkorelasi satu sama lain. aryani & zuber (2017) juga menemukan hal yang sama di lokasi pinggir rel palang joglo kadipiro di surakarta. keragaman di tataran konsep berimplikasi pada keragaman pengukurannya di level implementasi di lapangan, baik untuk kepentingan studi empirik maupun pengambil kebijakan, baik di level pemerintah pusat maupun pemerintah daerah. misalnya saja bank dunia menyebut seseorang miskin jika pendapatannya kurang dari $2 per hari. sementara di sisi lain, badan pusat statistik (bps) menggunakan 14 indikator kemiskinan. jika 9 dari 14 indikator tersebut terpenuhi, maka seseorang dapat dikategorikan sebagai orang miskin. empat belas indikator tersebut adalah: (1) luas lantai bangunan tempat tinggal kurang dari 8 m2 per orang; (2) jenis lantai tempat tinggal terbuat dari tanah/ bambu/ kayu murahan; (3) jenis dinding tempat tinggal dari bambu/ rumbia/ kayu berkualitas rendah/ tembok tanpa diplester; (4) tidak memiliki fasilitas buang air besar/ bersama-sama dengan rumah tangga lain; (5) sumber penerangan rumah tangga tidak menggunakan listrik; (6) sumber air minum berasal dari sumur/ mata air tidak terlindung/ sungai/ air hujan; (7) bahan bakar untuk memasak sehari-hari adalah kayu bakar/ arang/ minyak tanah; (8) hanya mengkonsumsi daging/ susu/ ayam dalam satu kali seminggu; (9) hanya membeli satu stel pakaian baru dalam setahun; (10) hanya sanggup makan sebanyak satu/ dua kali dalam sehari; (11) tidak sanggup membayar biaya pengobatan di puskesmas/ poliklinik; (12) sumber penghasilan kepala rumah tangga adalah: petani dengan luas lahan 500 m2, buruh tani, nelayan, buruh bangunan, buruh perkebunan dan atau pekerjaan lainnya dengan pendapatan dibawah rp600.000, per bulan; (13) pendidikan tertinggi kepala rumah tangga: tidak sekolah/tidak tamat sd/tamat sd; dan (14) tidak memiliki tabungan/barang yang mudah dijual dengan minimal rp500.000,seperti sepeda motor kredit/non kredit, emas, ternak, kapal motor, atau barang modal lainnya. dalam konteks indonesia, ukuran yang umum digunakan adalah batas garis kemiskinan (poverty line). batas garis kemiskinan adalah besarnya pengeluaran yang mampu memenuhi kecukupan 2100 kalori per kapita per hari untuk kebutuhan minimum bukan makanan seperti perumahan, bahan bakar, sandang, pendidikan, kesehatan dan angkutan (priebe, 2014). selain bank dunia dan bps, sayogyo mengembangkan indikator lain, yaitu dengan didasarkan atas jumlah rupiah pengeluaran rumah tangga yang disetarakan dengan jumlah kilogram konsumsi beras per orang per tahun dan dibagi dengan wilayah perdesaan dan perkotaan (rustiadi et al., 2011). dalam praktiknya, bps juga mengelompokkan tipologi kemiskinan di perdesaan dan diperkotaan. di daerah pedesaan indikatornya semisal: (1) miskin: bila pengeluaran keluarga lebih kecil dari pada 320 kg nilai tukar beras per orang per tahun; (2) miskin sekali: bila pengeluaran memahami karakter kemiskinan perkotaan… (pitri yandri, bambang juanda) 77 keluarga lebih kecil dari pada 240 kg nilai tukar beras per orang per tahun; dan (3) paling miskin: bila pengeluaran keluarga lebih kecil dari pada 180 kg nilai tukar beras per orang per tahun. sementara di daerah perkotaan: (1) miskin: bila pengeluaran keluarga lebih kecil dari pada 480 kg nilai tukar beras per orang per tahun; (2) miskin sekali: bila pengeluaran keluarga lebih kecil dari pada 380 kg nilai tukar beras per orang per tahun; dan (3) paling miskin: bila pengeluaran keluarga lebih kecil dari pada 270 kg nilai tukar beras per orang per tahun. pengelompokkan itu ditujukan untuk menghasilkan pengukuran yang lebih akurat (asra, 1999). apalagi terdapat fakta bahwa karakteristik perdesaan dan perkotaan berbeda secara spasial yang mengakibatkan berbedanya biaya hidup (asra, 2000). metode penelitian atas dasar uraian tersebut, artikel ini ditulis dalam upaya memahami karakter kemiskinan di perkotaan. secara umum, daerah perkotaan yang diamati adalah provinsi dki jakarta. metode pengumpulan data dilakukan dengan cara survey dan observasi. dalam rancangan survey, proses pengukuran sebuah konsep merupakan titik penting untuk menghasilkan data akurat (valid) dan dapat diandalkan (reliable). juanda (2007) membagi 4 (empat) jenis instrumen yang dapat digunakan dalam proses pengukuran sebuah konsep. keempat instrumen tersebut adalah: (1) kuesioner; (2) wawancara; (3) observasi; dan (4) alat ukur tertentu/baku. dalam penelitian ini, 3 (tiga) instrumen akan digunakan, yaitu wawancara, kuesioner dan observasi. 1. kuesioner kuesioner dikembangkan dari konsepkonsep teori sebagai telah diulas di atas. secara umum, isi kuesioner mencakup: a. profil responden b. pendapatan responden pendapatan responden akan di-proxi dari pengeluaran per bulan dalam satuan moneter tertentu (dalam hal ini rupiah) (deaton, 1998). pendekatan yang dilakukan deaton ini cukup logis mengingat konsumsi adalah fungsi dari pendapatan, c=f(y). pengelompokkan pengeluaran yang disarankan oleh deaton (1998) antara lain: (1) pengeluaran pangan; (2) pengeluaran sandang; (3) pengeluaran pendidikan; (4) pengeluaran transportasi; (5) pengeluaran hiburan; dan (6) pengeluaran listrik. 2. wawancara instrumen ini digunakan sebagai upaya mendalami jawaban-jawaban responden atas kuesioner yang telah ditanya dalam kuesioner. 3. observasi instrumen ini digunakan untuk mengamati lingkungan di sekitar rumah responden. sejumlah materi pengamatan yang diamati meliputi: (a) kondisi fisik rumah; (b) lingkungan rumah; (c) sanitasi lingkungan; dan (d) kondisi lantai rumah. keseluruhan hasil materi pengamatan akan didukung dengan dokumentasi foto. hasil dan pembahasan penelitian ini dilakukan di pinggir rel kereta api di sekitar stasiun tanah abang, jakarta pusat. lokasinya juga berada di bantaran sungai ciliwung. pemilihan daerah tanah abang sebagai lokasi pengamatan karena di tempat itu banyak ditempati oleh permukiman kumuh (slum). sebelum pt. kereta api indonesia melakukan pembersihan di sepanjang pinggiran rel, tempat ini dihuni lebih dari ratusan keluarga. kini, meski masih terdapat keluarga miskin yang menetap di sekitar rel, jumlahnya jauh berkurang dibanding 3 tahun yang lalu. 78 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 1, april 2018: 75-84 sumber: google map & survey, 2017 gambar 1. lokasi survey bapak x (49 tahun) adalah salah satu kepala keluarga yang tim penulis temui. atas permintaannya, nama dan identitasnya ingin dirahasiakan. karena itu, dalam laporan ini nama responden akan disebut sebagai bapak x. ia adalah warga kelurahan kebon kacang, kecamatan tanah abang, jakarta pusat. bapak dari 4 orang anak ini adalah warga pendatang dari surabaya sejak 5 tahun yang lalu. pekerjaannya di surabaya adalah buruh di sebuah pabrik batu bata. alasanya ketika ditanya mengapa pindah (migrasi) ke jakarta padahal ia telah memiliki pekerjaan tetap di surabaya adalah karena bahan baku (tanah liat) sudah semakin sulit dan terjadi pemutusan hubungan kerja (phk) di pabriknya. ia adalah satu dari sekian pegawai yang di-phk saat itu. selain itu ia menganggap, pindah ke jakarta adalah solusi untuk mendapatkan pekerjaan dan pendapatan yang lebih baik ketimbang di surabaya. fenomena ini mengonfirmasi teori migrasi todaro (2003) yang mengatakan bahwa alasan penduduk melakukan migrasi ke kota karena harapan akan pendapatan (expected income) yang lebih baik ketimbang di perdesaan. fenomena migrasi adalah bentuk respons dari masyarakat karena adanya eksptektasi meningkatkan kesejehateraan mereka. dengan kata lain, migrasi desa-kota akan terus berlangsung sepanjang terjadi kesenjangan perkembangan desa-kota (rustiadi, et al., 2011). studi empirik yang dilakukan nabila & pardede (2014) membuktikan bahwa kepemilikan lahan pertanian menunjukkan bahwa kondisi ekonomi yang lebih baik menurunkan probabilitas bermigrasi. hal ini berarti, perbaikan situasi perekonomian di perdesaan akan mengurangi kemungkinan penduduk bermigrasi. tetapi persoalannya bukan hanya itu. keinginan untuk bermigrasi juga didorong oleh persepsi bahwa kota adalah sumber dan lokasi utama dalam memperoleh kesejahteraan (urban bias) (streeten, 1977; fauzi, 2010). studi empirik yang dilakukan nas & boender (2001) misalnya menemukan memahami karakter kemiskinan perkotaan… (pitri yandri, bambang juanda) 79 bahwa persepsi merantau melekat kental dan menjadi tipikal masyarakat indonesia. bagi mereka, dengan merantau ke kota kehidupan mereka menjadi lebih baik. dalam konteks kasus bapak x, ia tidak menyadari bahwa hidup di perkotaan lebih kompleks ketimbang di perdesaan. sehingga keputusan melakukan migrasi ke jakarta ternyata tidak „seindah‟ yang dibayangkannya. sebelum tinggal di pinggiran rel stasiun tanah abang, bapak x pernah tinggal di sebuah rumah kontrak sederhana. namun karena penghasilannya dirasa tidak cukup lagi untuk mengontrak rumah, maka dengan terpaksa ia dan keluarga pindah. pilihannya jatuh pada kolong jembatan fly-over slipi di jakarta barat. sumber: survey, 2017 gambar 2a. kondisi rumah bapak x sumber: survey, 2017 gambar 2b. anggota tim dan bapak x penertiban permukiman kumuh di fly-over slipi kemudian membuatnya harus kembali mencari tempat tinggal. akhirnya, pinggiran rel stasiun tanah abang menjadi persinggahan terakhir bagi bapak x dan keluarganya hingga saat ini. di sini ia telah memperoleh identitas penduduk (ktp) yang dikeluarkan oleh kelurahan setempat. ia dan keluarga menempati rumah berdinding triplex dan beratap seng ditutupi plastik terpal seadanya. ia inggal bersama istri, satu anak perempuan, menantu dan cucunya yang masih balita. dua pintu rumah (gambar 2a) menggambarkan bahwa rumah tersebut ditempati olehnya dan anak perempuannya yang telah menikah itu. sumber: survey, 2017 gambar 3. istri, anak dan cucu bapak x status kepemilikan rumah yang ia tempati tidak begitu jelas. karena sebenarnya lahan yang ditempati adalah lahan publik (pedestrian dan taman) sehingga status penggunaan lahan adalah pinjam/ pakai/ menumpang walaupun secara fisik bangunan dimiliki oleh bapak x. ilustrasi di bawah ini menggambarkan bahwa rumah bapak x dan permukiman lainnya bercampur-baur dengan fasilitas publik. sumber: survey, 2017 gambar 4a. fasilitas publik dan permukiman kumuh 80 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 1, april 2018: 75-84 sumber: survey, 2017 gambar 4b. situasi lingkungan rumah bapak x melihat situasi lingkungan demikian, sanitasi lingkungan menjadi sesuatu mahal diperoleh. semua tempat di sekitar rumah bisa menjadi tempat sampah. lingkungan yang kotor ini membuat bapak x harus menggunakan air pam untuk memasak yang ia bayar setiap bulan kepada petugas pemungut. biaya yang ia keluarkan untuk membeli air pam tersebut berkisar rp 7 ribu per bulan. namun untuk keperluan buang air besar dan mandi, ia dan keluarga memanfaatkan toilet umum di gedung pasar tekstil tanah abang. posisi toilet umum itu tepat berada di seberang jalan rumahnya. selanjutnya, sebelum pindah ke pinggiran rel kereta api tanah abang, bapak x adalah seorang kuli bangunan. jenis pekerjaan inilah yang hanya bisa ia tekuni dengan modal ijazah smp. penghasilan yang ia terima dari pekerjaan itu sangat tidak menentu, namun ia menyatakan, penghasilan dari kuli bangunan itu relatif lumayan untuk bisa menghidupi keluarga dan menyekolahkan anaknya hingga lulus smk. semuanya telah berkeluarga. hanya satu anak perempuannya yang tinggal bersamanya. karena penyakit jantungnya kadang kambuh sejak 2 tahun terakhir, ia jarang menekuni lagi pekerjaan itu. bahkan dalam satu tahun terakhir lebih dari 20 kali ia harus mondar-mandir ke puskesmas untuk mengobati sakitnya itu. tetapi karena ia adalah anggota bpjs, ia merasa mudah mendapat akses pelayanan kesehatan. kini, atas kondisi kesehatannya itu, sejak dua tahun terakhir ia memilih menjadi kuli panggul (porter) di pasar tekstil tanah abang. dengan menjadi kuli panggul di pasar tekstil tanah abang ia mendapat upah rp 50-60 ribu per hari. karena kondisi kesehatannya yang terus menurun, istrinya mulai terlibat dalam pekerjaan produktif untuk membantu mencari naskah keluarga. istrinya membantu dengan berjualan rokok kecil-kecilan. ia beranggapan, meski anakanak telah menikah dan bertanggungjawab atas rumah tangganya sendiri, ia dan istri tidak mau „menadah tangan‟ meminta bantuan anakanaknya. apalagi ia memiliki tanggung jawab utang (kredit) atas kendaraan bermotor roda dua yang dibelinya 3 tahun lalu. kendaraan bermotor itulah satu-satunya aset ekonomi yang dimilikinya selain barang berharga emas yang dipakai istrinya sebagai perhiasan di leher. di dalam rumah, tidak terlihat ada televisi atau barang elektronik lainnya. yang jelas terlihat hanya setumpuk kasur kapuk sebagai alas tidur mereka. sumber: survey, 2017 gambar 5. aset kendaraan bermotor dan emas yang dikalungkan di leher istrinya pada urusan domestik, terutama aktivitas memasak, keluarga bapak x menggunakan bahan bakar gas ukuran tabung 3 kilogram. jumlah tabung gas yang mereka konsumsi mencapai 6 kilogram dalam sebulan (2 tabung dalam sebulan). aktivitas memasak dilakukan di depan pintu kamar. ketika ditanya, berapa kali konsumsi daging dalam sebulan, istrinya menjawab: “jarang”. dalam kamus besar bahasa indonesia, kata “jarang” diantaranya diartikan sebagai “tidak lazim”. jika demikian maknanya, memahami karakter kemiskinan perkotaan… (pitri yandri, bambang juanda) 81 konsumsi daging yang dalam perspektif bps masuk ke dalam 14 indikator kemiskinan, maka kondisi bapak x dan keluarganya sudah dapat dipastikan masuk sebagai kriteria orang miskin. berdasarkan hasil wawancara, pengeluaran untuk konsumsi pangan berkisar antara rp500 ribu sampai dengan rp 1 juta per bulan. lalu pengeluaran untuk pakaian berkisar antara rp300 ribu – rp400 ribu per bulan. karena semua anakanaknya telah menamatkan sekolah, pengeluaran untuk pendidikan nol. sementara pengeluaran transportasi berkisar antara rp. 300 ribu-an per bulan. biaya listrik berkisar rp 150 ribu sampai dengan rp 200 ribu per bulan. sementara pengeluaran untuk hiburan berkisar antara rp 100 ribu per bulan. dalam sesi wawancara, aktivitas hiburan “jarang” dilakukan dan menjadi hal tidak lazim bagi keluarga bapak x. selama tinggal di jakarta, hanya 1 kali melakukan perjalanan wisata, yaitu ke kebun binatang ragunan. besarnya konsumsi ini menyebabkan bapak x tidak memiliki tabungan di bank. menyimpan uang dilakukan oleh istrinya, sifatnya hanya untuk keperluan jaga-jaga (precautionary motives) dan jumlahnya pun tidak banyak. pada kasus ini dapat dijelaskan bahwa komponen tabungan, s=0. dengan demikian, kecenderungan menabung (marginal propensity to saving) bapak x=0. dapat diduga, kecenderungan mengonsumsi (marginal propensity to consume/mpc) bapak x mendekati 1, karena pendapatan yang diperoleh hampir semuanya digunakan untuk konsumsi. dalam perspektif makroekonomi, fenomena ini cukup bisa menjelaskan persoalan mengapa di setiap negara di mana jumlah penduduk miskinnya banyak sulit membentuk akumulasi kapital. sumber: survey, 2017 gambar 6. situasi kamar dalam rumah bapak x selanjutnya, ketika pengeluaran itu diagregasi dengan mengambil nilai tengah pada setiap rentang nilai (median) dan dengan asumsi pengeluaran hiburan nol, maka pendapatan bapak x berkisar rp 1.575.000,per bulan. jika ukuran pendapatan ini menggunakan ukuran purchasing power parity (ppp) bank dunia sebesar $2 per hari, dan jika asumsi nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar as sebesar rp 13.000, maka rp 13.000 x 2 x 30 hari = rp 780.000 per bulan. berdasar pada kalkulasi ini, bapak x tentulah tidak termasuk orang miskin karena pendapatannya telah jauh melebihi standar minimum yang ditetapkan bank dunia itu. dengan menggunakan 14 indikator bps yang disusun dalam bentuk matriks, terlihat bahwa bapak x cukup memenuhi kriteria untuk dinyatakan sebagai orang miskin. tabel 1. uji kriteria kemiskinan bapak x berdasarkan indikator bps indikator hasil pengamatan/wawancara keterangan memenuhi kriteria tidak memenuhi kriteria luas lantai bangunan tempat tinggal kurang dari 8m2 per orang < 8 m2 per orang  jenis lantai tempat tinggal terbuat dari tanah/bambu/kayu murahan terbuat dari tanah yang dilapisi triplex  jenis dinding tempat tinggal dari terbuat dari triplex  82 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 1, april 2018: 75-84 indikator hasil pengamatan/wawancara keterangan memenuhi kriteria tidak memenuhi kriteria bambu/rumbia/ kayu berkualitas rendah/tembok tanpa diplester tidak memiliki fasilitas buang air besar/ bersama-sama dengan rumah tangga lain ya, di toilet umum  sumber penerangan rumah tangga tidak menggunakan listrik menggunakan listrik  sumber air minum berasal dari sumur/ mata air tidak terlindung/ sungai/ air hujan air pam  bahan bakar untuk memasak seharihari adalah kayu bakar/ arang/ minyak tanah gas tabung 3 kg  hanya mengkonsumsi daging/ susu/ ayam dalam satu kali seminggu ya  hanya membeli satu stel pakaian baru dalam setahun ya  hanya sanggup makan sebanyak satu/ dua kali dalam sehari makan rutin 3 kali dalam sehari  tidak sanggup membayar biaya pengobatan di puskesmas/ poliklinik ya  sumber penghasilan kepala rumah tangga adalah: petani dengan luas lahan 500m2, buruh tani, nelayan, buruh bangunan, buruh perkebunan dan atau pekerjaan lainnya dengan pendapatan dibawah rp600.000, per bulan ya  pendidikan tertinggi kepala rumah tangga: tidak sekolah/ tidak tamat sd/ tamat sd tidak. bapak x tamat smp  tidak memiliki tabungan/barang yang mudah dijual dengan minimal rp500.000,seperti sepeda motor kredit/ non kredit, emas, ternak, kapal motor, atau barang modal lainnya tidak memiliki tabungan, tetapi memiliki motor dan emas  sumber: survey, 2017 83 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 1, april 2018: 75-84 pertanyaannya mengapa hasil pengamatan berdasarkan versi bank dunia dan bps bisa berbeda? jawaban yang masuk akal adalah pertama, menyangkut agregasi dan/ atau generalisasi kemiskinan yang dilakukan oleh bank dunia. bank dunia menetapkan standar $2 per hari sebagai standar minimal orang yang dapat disebut miskin. ukuran bank dunia terebut adalah ukuran dengan standar moneter. sebaliknya, ukuran bps lebih bersifat mikro dan mencakup bukan hanya ukuran-ukuran moneter tetapi juga non-moneter. simpulan hasil penelitian terhadap orang miskin di kawasan kumuh jakarta menunjukkan bahwa mereka memilih pindah ke jakarta karena mereka di phk dari tempat kerja dan berharap jakarta akan memberikan penghidupan yang lebih baik dari daerah asalnya. sebagian besar dari mereka bekerja sebagai buruh atau kuli angkut atau porter. karena penghasilannya dirasa tidak cukup untuk mengontrak rumah, maka dengan terpaksa mereka pindah ke kolong jembatan fly-over. masalah sanitasi lingkungan menjadi sesuatu mahal diperoleh. semua tempat di sekitar rumah bisa menjadi tempat sampah. beberapa dimensi di dalam kemiskinan perkotaan dapat dilihat pada tingkat pendapatan yang rendah, kondisi kesehatan yang buruk, pendidikan rendah, kerawanan, tempat tinggal kumuh, dan ketidakberdayaan. pada kasus orang miskin dapat dijelaskan kecenderungan menabung (marginal propensity to saving) mps=0 dan kecenderungan mengonsumsi (marginal propensity to consume/mpc) mendekati 1, karena pendapatan yang diperoleh hampir semuanya digunakan untuk konsumsi. dalam perspektif makroekonomi, fenomena ini cukup dapat menjelaskan persoalan mengapa di setiap negara yang jumlah penduduk miskinnya banyak mengalami kesulitan dalam membentuk akumulasi kapital. daftar pustaka alkire, s., & santos, m.e., 2014, measuring acute poverty in the developing world: robustness and scope of the multidimensional poverty index, world development vol. 59: 251-274. amir, a., 2007, perekonomian indonesia (dalam perspektif makro), bogor: penerbit biografika. aryani, y.c., & zuber, a., 2017, budaya kemiskinan di kota surakarta (studi etnografi di pinggir rel palang joglo, kadipiro), jurnal sosiologi dilema, vol. 32, no. 2: 64-79. asra, a., 1999, urban-rural differences in cost of living and their impact on poverty measures, bulletin of indonesian economic studies vol. 35, no. 3: 51-59. ------., 2000, poverty and inequality in indonesia, journal of the asia pacific economy, 5 (1/2): 91-111. deaton, a., 1998, the analysis of household surveys a microeconomic approach to development policy, usa: the jhon hopkins university press, baltimore. fauzi, a., 2010, landasan pembangunan perdesaan, dalam chozin, m.a., (penyunting), pembangunan perdesaan dalam rangka peningkatan kesejahteraan masyarakat, ipb press, bogor. field, j., 2003, modal sosial (terj), bantulyogyakarta, kreasi wacana. fukuyama, f., 2002, trust kebajikan sosial dan penciptaan kemakmuran, yogyakarta: qalam juanda, b., 2007, metodologi penelitian ekonomi dan bisnis, bogor: ipb press. nabila, a., & pardede, e.l., 2014, kemiskinan dan migrasi: analisis data sakerti 2000 dan 84 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 19, nomor 1, april 2018: 75-84 2007, jurnal ekonomi dan pembangunan indonesia, vol. 14, no. 2: 168-187. nas, p.j.m., & boender, w., 2001, the indonesian city in urban theory, journal of social sciences 5 (4): 257-266. priebe, j., 2014, official poverty measurement in indonesia since 1984: a methodological review, bulletin of indonesian economic studies vol. 50, no. 2: 185-205. rejekiningsih, t.w., 2011, identifikasi faktor penyebab kemiskinan di kota semarang dari dimensi kultural, jurnal ekonomi pembangunan, vol. 12, no. 1: 28-44. rustiadi, e., saefulhakim, s., panuju, d.r., 2011, perencanaan dan pengembangan wilayah, jakarta: crestpent press dan yayasan pustaka obor. sangadji, s., abadi, t.w., fauziah, l., 2015, karakteristik kemiskinan dan penanggulangannya di kabupaten sidoarjo, mimbar, vol. 31, no. 1: 495-506. sen, a., 2000, development as freedom, new york: alfred knof. streeten, 1977, poverty and urban bias, the commonwealth journal of international affairs, 67: 267, 291-298. todaro, m.p., 2003, pembangunan ekonomi di dunia ketiga, jakarta: erlangga. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 21 nomor 2, oktober 2020 article type: research paper the effect of socio-economic factors on the individual smoking status: case of indonesia prasetyo ardi nugroho1* and hastarini dwi atmanti2 abstract: research aims to understand the probability the status of smoking and factors that influence individual smoking status in indonesia. the data used by indonesian data family life survey (ifls) 2014 and 2007. the subject of the research is individual 15 aged years or more at 24 province. the study used the sexes, age, marital status, the head of the household status, education, income and the type of individual tribes. data processing using methods probit regression and was distinctions based on cities and villages. the result showed, sex, the head of a household and education significant impact on the probability of individuals to smoke in cities and villages. improving education old one year reduce the probability of individuals to smoking of 1.34 percentage points in cities and 0.85 percentage points in the village area. the significance education variable negative shows that education is vital to lower prevalence of smoking. keywords: indonesia family life survey; probability; probit; smoking status jel classification: c81, d12, i15, j13 introduction cigarettes consumption in the world reaches 5.8 trillion pieces, and indonesia ranked fourth after china, russia, and the united states with a total consumption of 240 billion pieces (eriksen, mackay, schluger, gomeshtapeh, & drope, 2015), making it the second-largest cigarette market in the world (who, 2011; gibson, 2017). the basic health research in 2007, 2010, 2013, and 2018 and survey data of national health indicators in 2016 shows that the prevalence of tobacco consumption (smoking and chewing) on a group of 15 years old in the last ten years has fluctuated in each period. the prevalence of tobacco consumption is above 30 percent and is still dominated by men, about 65 percent. in contrast, the prevalence of women consuming tobacco is much lower than men’s. the impact of cigarette consumption has a broad dimension on the health aspect, thereby influencing the economic aspect. according to food commodities, data from the central bureau of statistics (2018) revealed that cigarette and tobacco consumption ranked fifth in monthly per capita expenditure. affiliation: 1, 2 master program, faculty of economics and business, universitas diponegoro, semarang, indonesia. *correspondence: prasetyoardinug@gmail.com this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.21.2.5038 citation: nugroho, p. a., & atmanti, h. d. (2020). the effect of socioeconomic factors on the individual smoking status: case of indonesia. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 21(2), 161-169. article history received: 10 june 2020 reviewed: 22 june 2020 02 july 2020 revised: 10 july 2020 02 aug 2020 accepted: 09 oct 2020 mailto:prasetyoardin@gmail.com http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/8986 http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp nugroho & atmanti the effect of socio-economic factors on the individual smoking status: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 162 high cigarette consumption causes high expenditure, financial pressure, and a lack of money for household food needs (siahpush, farazi, maloney, dinkel, nguyen, & singh, 2018). the total health expenditure due to cigarette consumption in indonesia in 2015 was idr 13.81 trillion (kosen, tharany, kusumawardani, & martini, 2017). smoking behavior is an activity that can cause addiction. addicted individuals will consume more cigarettes as a result of the accumulation of addictive effects. the theory of rational addiction developed by becker and murphy (1988) mentions that addiction affects the utility and pattern of individual expenditure. addicted individuals obtain a utility equal to a certain level of consumption or unit at a time. thus, they will need more consumption units in the future. the effect of individual addiction caused by cigarette consumption spreads at various socioeconomic levels, including the poor. the study of cigarette consumption is often associated with poverty due to the massive cigarette consumption level in the poor or low-socioeconomic groups (indonesian ministry of health, 2013). individuals with low socioeconomic conditions have a higher chance of smoking (nketiah-amponsah, affulmensah, & ampaw, 2018; siahpush et al., 2018; kusumawardani, tarigan, suparmi, & schlotheuber, 2018). cigarette expenditure also tends to be more generous in households with low socioeconomic status (siahpush et al., 2018). socioeconomic status has been regarded as an essential determinant of smoking behavior (lantz, house, lepkowski, williams, mero, & chen, 1998), even in developed countries (garrett, dube, trosclair, caraballo, & pechacek, 2011; hiscock, bauld, amos, & platt, 2012; nagelhout, de korte-de boer, kunst, van der meer, de vries, van gelder, & willemsen, 2012; jamal, king, neff, whitmill, babb, & graffunder, 2016). the relationship between socioeconomic status and smoking behavior may differ between countries with different levels of socioeconomic development (wang, shen, sotero, li, & hou, 2018). the reality of smoking prevalence in most developed countries (high-income countries) is inversely proportional to the socioeconomic situation (schaap, kunst, leinsalu, regidor, espelt, ekholm, helmert, klumbiene, & mackenbach, 2009; lemstra, mackenbach, neudorf, nannapaneni, & kunst, 2009; hosseinpoor, parker, d'espaignet, & chatterji, 2012; bosdriesz, mehmedovic, witvliet, & kunst, 2014; hanibuchi, nakaya, & honjo, 2016). whereas in developing countries such as india, thailand, malaysia, and indonesia, socioeconomic status has a positive relationship with smoking behavior (siahpush et al., 2008; swe latt, mohd rus, ab rahman, nasreen, phyu, & abd. aziz, 2015; barik, rai, gorain, majumdar, & chowdhury, 2016; ahsan, 2006). smoking behavior in previous studies could be influenced by several socioeconomic variables including education (doku, koivusilta, rainio, & rimpela, 2010; garrett et al., 2011; nagelhout et al., 2012; jamal et al., 2016; siahpush et al., 2018; wang et al., 2018; kusumawardani et al., 2018), employment (ahsan, 2006; doku et al., 2010; bosdriesz et al., 2014; barik et al., 2016; hanibuchi et al., 2016; siahpush et al., 2018; wang et al., 2018), income (nagelhout et al., 2012; hanibuchi et al., 2016; wang et al., 2018), marital status (harahap, 2003; ahsan, 2006; john, ross, & blecher, 2012; nargis, ruthbah, nugroho & atmanti the effect of socio-economic factors on the individual smoking status: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 163 hussain, fong, huq, & ashiquzzaman, 2014), gender (ahsan, 2006; kostova, ross, blecher, & markowitz, 2011; nargis et al., 2014; wang et al., 2018; kusumawardani et al., 2018), age (ahsan, 2006; kostova et al., 2011; nargis et al., 2014; wang et al., 2018; kusumawardani et al., 2018) and location of residence (ahsan, 2006; nargis et al., 2014; nketiah-amponsah et al., 2018; mukong & tingum, 2019; wang et al., 2018). this research aims to determine the probability of smoking and socioeconomic factors influencing individuals to smoke. this study complements the lack of comprehensive research on smoking behavior in indonesia using big data. specific analysis in cities and villages becomes an update of research rarely presented in previous studies. this study contributes to providing data on the probability of smoking on various socioeconomic characteristics that can be used as the consideration for policymakers to reduce the prevalence and cigarette consumption in indonesia. research method this research utilized secondary data obtained from the indonesia family life survey (ifls) in a longitudinal of 24 provinces in indonesia. research subjects focused on individuals aged 15 years or more, namely individuals in ifls-4 (2007) and ifls-5 (2014) research totaling 17,992. the dependent variable in this research was the smoking status. an individual on tribe variable determined 1 = if smokers; and 0 = if non-smokers. as for the independent variable cover: 1) age (age), 2) sex (gender), 3) education period (educ), 4) marital status (marital), 5) the status of the household head (hh_head), 6) income (income), and 7) tribe (ethnicity). the variable proxies are presented in table 1. the analysis applied in research was probit regression. probit regression analysis is used to view the relations between qualitative and quantitative variables (category dependent and independent variables). the model was chosen because most research utilized discrete models such as the choice logit or probit multinomial logit models and the hazard model to investigate the impact of various socioeconomic factors against a choice of smoking status (nguyen, 2012). the model in this research is presented as follows: smoking = β0+ β1 age+ β2 gender+ β3 educ+ β4 marital+ β5 hh_head+ β6 income+ β7 ethnicity+  nugroho & atmanti the effect of socio-economic factors on the individual smoking status: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 164 table 1 proxy of research variables variables description smoking probability (smoking) 1 if smokers; 0 if non-smokers age (age) years sex (gender) 1 if male; 0 if female education (educ) years marital status (marital) 1 if married; 0 if unmarried head of a household status (hh_head) 1 if the head of household; 0 if not income (income) monthly expenditures (idr) type of ethnicity (ethnicity) 1 if java; 0 if others 1 if sumatera; 0 if others 1 if kalimantan; 0 if others 1 if bali & nusa tenggara; 0 if others 1 sulawesi & maluku; 0 if others result and discussion marginal effect the marginal effect indicated changes in the probability when the predictor or free variable increased a unit. in general, the regression coefficient probit could not interpret but could use the marginal effect of a free variable, and that was how large the probability of change of the variables results when changing the value of regressor. in contrast to linear regression, we could directly see that the interpretation value in the probit regression coefficient was the marginal effect. table 2 depicts that each person contributed a marginal effect on both the study areas, namely the city and village. men in the urban area had a smoking probability of 56.10 percent higher than women. while in rural areas, men had a smoking probability of 56.33 percent higher than women. the age variable in the urban area had no significant impact on the probability of smoking. conversely, in rural areas, age had a significant positive impact. the addition of one year of age would increase the probability of smoking by 0.01 percent. the marital status variable had a significant and negative impact in the rural area but did not influence those in urban areas. the probability of not smoking among married individuals was two percent higher than those unmarried. in both regions, the head of a household status variable significantly and positively affected the probability of smoking. in the urban area, the individual status of household heads had a smoking probability of 2.16 percent higher than those not becoming the head of a household. while in the rural area, the probability was 2.07 percent. education had a significant negative impact in both urban and rural areas. nugroho & atmanti the effect of socio-economic factors on the individual smoking status: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 165 table 2 marginal effect of the probit of individuals’ smoking status in urban and rural areas variable marginal effect dy/dx urban rural urban+rural gender 0.5610*** (0.0075) 0.5633*** (0.0078) 0.5673*** (0.0054) age -0.0002 (0.0003) 0.0011*** (0.0003) 0.0004* (0.0002) marital 0.0146 (0.0094) -0.0207* (0.0109) 0.0022 (0.0070) hh_head 0.0216** (0.0100) 0.0207* (0.0107) 0.0202*** (0.0073) educ -0.0134*** (0.0010) -0.0085*** (0.0011) -0.0119*** (0.0007) income -0.0030 (0.0036) -0.0045 (0.0036) -0.0057** (0.0025) jawa -0.0133 (0.0307) -0.0641* (0.0344) -0.0320 (0.0233) sumatera 0.0364 (0.0325) 0.0181 (0.0356) 0.0385 (0.0244) kalimantan -0.0313 (0.0340) -0.1101*** (0.0365) -0.0646** (0.0252) bali_nusa -0.0630* (0.0324) -0.0912** (0.0356) -0.0685*** (0.0243) sula_malu 0.0041 (0.0379) -0.1079** (0.0472) -0.0338 (0.0299) source: stata 14.0, processed (2020) dependent variable: individual smoking status (smoking) note: sign () describes as a robust standard error *significant to α=10%, ** significant to α=5%, *** significant to α=1% increasing the duration of education for one year would reduce the probability of smoking by 1.34 percent in the urban area and 0.85 percent within rural areas. the income variable did not significantly affect the probability of smoking in both rural and urban areas. individuals with tribes on bali and nusa tenggara islands had a probability of smoking by 6.3 percent lower in the urban area and 9.1 percent lower in the rural area than those with tribes on other islands. discussion cigarettes as a commodity consumed by many people are indeed a matter of debate. the health perspective mentions that smoking can interfere with health, although findings revealed that cigarettes were used as a treatment for chest pain (budiman & onghokham, 1987), and currently, a specific type of cigarette (devine kretek) has been used as a cancer treatment by adding a scavenger set that can change the formulation of cigarette smoke (zahar, 2011). this research discovered that age had a significant relation with the probability of smoking. the addition of one year of age would increase the probability of smoking by 0.01 percent in the urban area. these results indicate that the probability of smoking increases with age. previous research disclosed an inverse u relationship between age nugroho & atmanti the effect of socio-economic factors on the individual smoking status: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 166 and smoking participation with the highest number at 45-54 years (hu et al., 1995). the probability of smoking would increase to a certain age, then decrease slowly with increasing age (harahap, 2003). the addition of age is closely related to the education level. age and education usually have a positive correlation, where the higher the education level, the older the age. this study uncovered a negative relationship between education and the probability of smoking in both urban and rural areas. the increase in one-year-education would reduce the probability of smoking as much as 1.34 percent in urban areas and 0.85 percent in rural areas. several previous studies demonstrated a negative correlation between education and smoking probability (harahap, 2003; ahsan, 2006; widyaningrum & yu, 2018; nugroho, 2020). the decrease in the probability of smoking in line with the increase in education was highly related to the independence of smoking decisions (harahap, 2003). highly educated individuals are likely to be more independent in deciding to smoke or not smoke than in the high school group, which is more determined by the peer group. men had a probability of smoking higher than women. this study discovered that gender significantly influenced the probability of smoking. previous research also found a relationship between gender and the probability of smoking (ahsan, 2006; kostova et al., 2011; nargis et al., 2014; wang et al., 2018; kusumawardani et al., 2018). men had a probability of smoking by 56.10 percent higher than women in the urban area and 56.33 percent higher than women in rural areas. men are more aware of the positive effects of smoking, such as being more confident, looking manly, creating a positive mood, relieving stress/difficulties, increasing concentration, and getting along, especially getting more friends (sugiharti, sukartini, & handriana, 2015). peer groups are a means of socializing smoking behavior (harahap, 2003). smoking behavior is also a learned behavior and is passed down from generation to generation (komasari and helmi, 2000). this research unveiled that bali and nusa tenggara significantly influenced the probability of smoking in urban and rural areas. individuals with tribes on these islands had a probability of smoking by 6.3 percent lower in urban areas and 9.1 percent lower in rural areas than those with tribes in other islands in urban areas. individuals by tribes residing in rural areas in java, kalimantan, sulawesi, and maluku had a lower smoking probability of 6.4 percent, 11 percent, and 10.7 percent, respectively than those outside the region. the significant and negative relationship between tribes in bali and nusa tenggara with the probability of smoking in urban and rural areas indicates a relationship with smoking prevalence and low average cigarette consumption in the region (indonesian ministry of health, 2013). based on indonesian basic health research (riskesdas) (2013) data, regions with tribes on java, kalimantan, sulawesi, and maluku, with significant results only in rural areas, had a higher smoking prevalence and average consumption than in bali and nusa tenggara. nugroho & atmanti the effect of socio-economic factors on the individual smoking status: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 167 conclusion in conclusion, sex, the head of a household status, and education significantly impacted the probability of smoking in the cities and villages. meanwhile, age, marital status, and almost all tribes’ locations revealed significant results only in the village area. the significant negative value of the education variable implies that education is a big deal in reducing smoking prevalence. the income of an individual had no significant impact on the probability of smoking, meaning that the amount of income did not influence smoking behavior. it happened because indonesia’s cigarette consumption ranks fourth globally. people become addicted to cigarettes. as a result, young and new smokers increased in number. therefore, education regarding the dangers of smoking must be improved immensely to preserve young people. references ahsan, a. 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(2011). global adult tobacco survey: indonesia report 2011. geneva. zahar, g. (2011). the balur and divine kretek therapy (the philosophy and basic ideas). retrieved from http://smartbio.org/research/the-balur-and-divine-kretek-therapythephilosophy-and-basic-ideas/ https://doi.org/10.1186/1471-2458-12-303 https://doi.org/10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2012-050835 https://doi.org/10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2012-050835 https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-018-5872-0 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2009.01.007 https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2017-020571 https://doi.org/10.24843/jekt.2015.v08.i01.p04 http://conference2015.fms-malaysia.org/ https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0192571 https://doi.org/10.1177%2f0022042618789491 http://smartbio.org/research/the-balur-and-divine-kretek-therapy-thephilosophy-and-basic-ideas/ http://smartbio.org/research/the-balur-and-divine-kretek-therapy-thephilosophy-and-basic-ideas/ jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 22 nomor 1, april 2021 article type: research paper social networks-budgetary discipline linkages in sub-national entities paul onyango-delewa1* abstract: this research intervenes with the seemingly endless empirical debate that seeks explanation to the notorious budgetary discipline problem in the local government. some scholars attribute it to social networks, but others emphasize entity internal control systems. supported by budgetary theory-structural equation modeling (sem) triangulation, the researchers examined data from 33 districts, seven municipalities, and 345 sub-counties in uganda (east africa)’s north-western and eastern regions. the sem results revealed that socio-economic structures and partisan politics are key social network constructs to predict budgetary discipline. however, another attribute, ethnicity, is not. additionally, the internal control system mediates the social networks-budgetary discipline relationship as initially anticipated. implications for theory and practice are discussed. keywords: local government; budgetary discipline; internal control systems; social networks jel classification: h7, h6 introduction contemporary fiscal federalism policy in numerous economies of both the developed and developing world claims that achieving budgetary discipline in sub-national entities is quite feasible (özer & yilmaz, 2011; mergel, rethemeyer & kimberley, 2016). contrarily, the collective theoryresearch-practice view suggests that sub-national entity budgetary discipline is mainly illusionary and cannot be attained easily. it is evident mainly in resource-constrained, ethnically driven, and partisan politicsfocused local governments in various countries of the developing world (egbide & agbude, 2014; willoughby, 2014; davis, dempster & wildavsky, 1966). the preceding seemingly endless empirical debate renders what persuasively explain budgetary discipline in sub-national entities a nondirectional issue. accordingly, some scholars (e.g., lavertu, 2015; porumbescu, 2016; skoric et al., goh, 2016) assert that budgetary discipline can easily be propelled by changes in entity social networks. other researchers (giosi et al., 2014; pettersson-lidbom, 2010; stedry, 1960) argue that; consistent with the budgetary theory and fiscal federalism policy, and social networks can 9 only promote budgetary affiliation: 1 department of accounting and finance, faculty of business and development studies, gulu university, gulu, uganda *correspondence: ponydel2005@gmail.com this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v22i1.10576 citation: onyango-delewa, p. (2021). social networks-budgetary discipline linkages in sub-national entities. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 22(1), 110-127. article history received: 11 dec 2020 revised: 21 jan 2021 17 mar 2021 accepted: 05 apr 2021 https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorid=57190219252&amp;eid=2-s2.0-84978402415 https://gu.ac.ug/ https://gu.ac.ug/ https://gu.ac.ug/ https://gu.ac.ug/ mailto:ponydel2005@gmail.com http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/10576 https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v22i1.10576&domain=pdf onyango-delewa social networks-budgetary discipline linkages in sub-national entities jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 111 discipline if supported by an efficient internal control system. in intervention, this research examined social networks-internal control systemsbudgetary discipline connectivity in sub-national entities of sub-saharan africa. specifically, the investigation was centered on operations of 33 districts, seven municipalities, and 345 sub-counties scattered in the north-western and eastern regions of uganda, an east african country. in recent decades, the country has received surmountable acclaim for its fiscal federalism approach and has been a research focal point (egbide & agbude, 2014; ministry of local government, 2019). the study makes many contributions to literature. first, drawing on the fiscal federalism perspective, its findings contribute to the local government budgetary literature by examining whether budgetary discipline can be achieved from a social network context. given that prior sub-saharan africa localities-focused research (e.g., egbide & agbude, 2014; nicolae, 2013) often overlooked budgetary discipline-social network linkages, this undertaking is considered empirically novel and innovative. second, the study goes deeper by also exploring the apparent mediating influence of internal control systems on the region’s local entity budgetary discipline-social network triangulation. consistent with existing literature (oliveira & welch, 2013; porumbescu, 2016), sub-saharan african-based fiscal federalism has long been driven by generally weak internal control systems considerations. third, the research employed the budgetary theory underpinnings to explore the possible social network-internal control systems-budgetary discipline relationships in the local government. this theory was formulated and has been primarily employed in the western world (davis et al., 1966; rubin, 1990; stedry, 1960). its application in african localities research thus amounts to yet another tremendous empirical contribution to the literature. budgetary discipline in sub-national and specifically local government entities constitutes a legal instrument (willoughby, 2014). fundamentally, it is meant to be complied with to enhance locality fiscal planning, implementation, and accountability (nicolae, 2013). as noted recently by mergel et al. (2016), in practice, however, budgetary discipline structure is often compromised and violated by individual persons and groups through rent-seeking practices. consequently, related regulations are frequently violated to exploit public funds for personal and group interests (mergel et al., 2016; willoughby, 2014). both budgetary theory and literature have traditionally associated local entity budgetary discipline with three basic constructs: common pool set-up, fiscal bailouts, and grants policy (davis et al., 1966; stedry, 1960; egbide & agbude, 2014; nicolae, 2013; özer & yilmaz, 2011; willoughby, 2014). a budgetary theory that underscores fiscal incrementalism as a prerequisite for societal demand dynamics posits that local entity efficiency can only be attained through budgetary discipline (davis et al., 1966; stedry, 1960). later on, supported by input from rubin (1990), this theory seems practical and onyango-delewa social networks-budgetary discipline linkages in sub-national entities jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 112 realistic in scarce-resource and yet economically demanding domains of the developing world. it explains why recent empirical works (e.g., nicolae, 2013; willoughby, 2014) underscore common pool set-up, fiscal bailouts, and grants policy as pivotal factors for realizing the entity budgetary discipline dream. budgetary discipline in majority sub-national governments in the developed and developing world is essentially a function of their common-pool structure. in line with the budgetary theory (stedry, 1960; davis et al., 1966; rubin, 1990) position and exemplified by recent research (nicolae, 2013; willoughby, 2014), the financing of specific community expenditure is often shared among different entity interest groups. it implies that each interest group holds a motive of free-riding on the groups’ contributions. accordingly, overspending bias, a budgetary indiscipline signal, arises, often very complicated to manage (nicolae, 2013; stedry, 1960). to date, theory, research, and practice are not conclusive on what can fully address the common-pool challenge in the local government. however, some scholars (e.g., özer & yilmaz, 2011) suggest that entities should always emphasize budgetary institutions' compliance and proper social network management. the institutions are basically the formal and informal rules governing budgetary decisions of the executive and legislative branches of government (özer & yilmaz, 2011; willoughby, 2014). some research, notably, egbide and agbude (2014), posit that political fragmentation and decision-making weaknesses, typical of sub-saharan african localities, should be maturely addressed. the two are explicit models of social network machination (egbide & agbude, 2014). several local governments, especially in the developing world, tend to over-spend and accumulate debt either deliberately or in ignorance of ultimate consequences. this fiscal misconduct, typical of budgetary indiscipline, often affects the future provision of sensitive public services such as health, education, water and sanitation, and road maintenance (besfamille & lockwood, 2008). to sustain expected service delivery to the innocent citizens, the central government is compelled to step in and rescue the situation; the action is technically referred to as fiscal bailout (besfamille & lockwood, 2008; özer & yilmaz, 2011). in compliance with the budget theory (stedry, 1960; rubin, 1990) view that bailouts weaken entity budgetary discipline tremendously, recent studies (e.g., giosi et al., 2014; cao et al., 2013; lavertu, 2015; porumbescu, 2016) advice that central authorities should avoid the bailout practice. in sub-saharan africa, several countries; notably, uganda, ethiopia, ghana, kenya, nigeria, and south africa, run fiscal regulations that slab local governments from accessing loans. thus, no entity is mandated to borrow from either local or international financial institutions. this action has significantly helped mitigate the entity debt problem and minimized bailouts (egbide & agbude, 2014; mergel et al., 2016). in uganda, for instance, central authorities have also espoused strict measures to counter entity overspending tendencies regardless of inter-entity revenue generation variances (egbide & agbude, 2014). onyango-delewa social networks-budgetary discipline linkages in sub-national entities jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 113 the manner grants or intergovernmental fiscal transfers (igfts) policy is constituted and later implemented, which has profound implications not only for local entity fiscal sustainability but also for their budgetary discipline (skoric, zhu & goh, 2016). essentially, the primary purpose of igfts is to help fund sub-national public infrastructure and service delivery as a contribution from the central government. the grants are also meant to enhance local revenue capacity. it implies that for effective implementation, the igfts governing policy must be systematically designed. consistent with budgetary theory (davis et al., 1966; rubin, 1990) and empirical evidence (besfamille & lockwood, 2008; skoric et al., 2016), igfts policy enhances local entity budgetary discipline when the fiscal pool is adequate, the pool is transparently distributed, and the operational conditionalities surrounding it are realistic. as besfamille and lockwood (2008) noted, such an igfts policy structure will not only promote pool utility flexibility and simplify related socio-economic adjustments but, most essentially, will significantly curtail rent-seeking inclinations. like majority fiscal federalism states in sub-saharan africa, uganda’s grants policy faces surmountable challenges in attaining the previous operational standards. consequently, most local governments undergo persistent budgetary discipline setbacks (egbide & agbude, 2014). sub-national arrangements, particularly local governments, encompass many stakeholders who frequently interact to achieve fiscal federalism objectives and essentially deliver required public services (lavertu, 2015; porumbescu, 2016). key parties include entity administrators, finance officers, planning and procurement officers, community representatives, the local community, and central government. in the developing world, the donor community is another critical partner. both budgetary theory and fiscal federalism policy consider these inter-stakeholder linkages social networks (lavertu, 2015; oliveira & welch, 2013; porumbescu, 2016). given that the stakeholders conceive, approve, implement, and manage entity budgets, social network analysis research (e.g., mergel et al., 2016; warren, sulaiman, & jaafar, 2014) contends that anticipated budgetary discipline must be a direct function of social networking. accordingly, social network analysis, or sna, constitutes a social science methodology that explains social phenomena. the sna technique employs structural and party relational identities to indicate how information is exchanged amongst themselves. in the local government fiscal context, recent sna empirical evidence identifies social networks with three constructs: socio-economic structure, partisan politics, and ethnicity (warren et al., 2014; skoric et al., 2016). globally, there is no federal system that holds sub-national entities with equal and similar resource-endowment. thus, each entity has its peculiar capacity to generate local revenue dictated by its unique socio-economic framework. divergences in fiscal capabilities; horizontal fiscal imbalances significantly affect individual budgetary priorities (lavertu, 2015). in developing countries, notably those of sub-saharan africa and uganda, inclusive-central authorities are often compelled to extend equalization grants to bridge inter-entity fiscal imbalances. moreover, the donor community often steps in to support central government or aid affected entities directly (lavertu, 2015; warren et al., 2014). onyango-delewa social networks-budgetary discipline linkages in sub-national entities jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 114 as observed by oliveira & welch (2013) and recently studied by cao et al. (2013), the most vulnerable victim of fiscal federalism is individual entity budgetary discipline. the majority of local governments in uganda, for instance, have, over the years, failed to ably manage the local tax-grants-donor aid triangulation resulting in budgetary indiscipline (porumbescu, 2016). from the foregoing socio-economic structure/budgetary discipline analysis, the researchers predict that: h1: socio-economic structure holds a positive relationship with budgetary discipline. budgetary theory (stedry, 1960; davis et al., 1966; rubin, 1990) posits that fiscal federalism is a component of public finance, the connectivity between the state's politics and economics. however, for political economy to operate effectively, politics must be practiced maturely and transparently. that approach not only generates local entity budgetary efficiency but also significantly enhances budgetary discipline (davis et al., 1966; rubin, 1990). in developing nations, partisan politics are often driven by tribal and ethnic bias and with the ultimate goal of perpetuating political leaders’ stay in power indefinitely (cao et al., 2013; lavertu, 2015). related literature is drawn from various sub-saharan africa countries; uganda inclusive, (mergel et al., 2016; porumbescu, 2016; skoric et al., 2016) asserts that pre-mature partisan politics often compromises local government budgetary decisions in favor of the ruling party stakeholders. ultimately budgetary discipline efforts are not easily realized. therefore, in line with previous partisan politics-budgetary discipline research, the researchers propose the following: h2: partisan politics is positively related to budgetary discipline. various local governments and other sub-national entities in developing countries are often created based on tribe and ethnic size. as lavertu (2015) and porumbescu (2016) pointed out, the nature of public services rendered to communities and related infrastructure, including health units, schools, roads, and water and sanitation facilities, are therefore dictated by tribalism and ethnicity. besides, the majority entity finance and budgetary workforce is commonly drawn from the local communities and mainly on tribal-ethnic considerations. in uganda, for instance, the district service commission (dsc) is the body of local government exclusively responsible for identifying and recruiting entity employees. numerous studies (e.g., giosi et al., 2014; mergel et al., 2016) report evidence that the dsc machination in the country often deploys workforce regardless of their technical capabilities. given that the foregoing tribalism-ethnicity-workforce intricacy may not only undermine local revenue but tremendously sabotage grants-donor aid budgetary funding onyango-delewa social networks-budgetary discipline linkages in sub-national entities jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 115 configuration, it is apparent that budgetary discipline remains vulnerable. in this respect, the researchers propose the following: h3: the broader the entity's ethnicity base, the lesser budgetary discipline is attainable. governments at the central, state, or local level always endeavor to run efficient and effective financial management systems. as davis et al. (1966) and rubin (1990) observe in the renowned public budgetary theory, properly organized financial management mechanisms breed fiscal transparency and, eventually, budgetary discipline. moreover, the empirical work of giosi et al. (2014) and pettersson-lidbom (2010) revealed that embedded within majority entity financial management mechanisms are internal control systems (icss). ideally, icss are basically set-ups meant to ensure that at all times, proper workforce recruitment and deployment, transaction and document authorization, complete book-keeping and accountability, and accurate financial reporting are thoroughly executed (giosi et al., 2014; özer & yilmaz, 2011; pettersson-lidbom, 2010). the challenge, however, is that attaining these standards in respect to budgetary activity, whether at the central or local government level, constitutes budgetary discipline, and quite often, it is not easy to attain (özer & yilmaz, 2011). along these lines of empirical evidence, several scholars, giosi et al. (2014) and pettersson-lidbom (2010) inclusive, assert that budgetary discipline in resourceconstrained environments, in principle, is budgetary as that of sub-saharan africa is not merely a function of social networks. instead, the most critical factor is the status and efficiency of internal entity controls and social networks being subordinate (giosi et al., 2014). the foregoing deliberations seem especially evocative, taking the ugandan-based local entities' internal controls-budgetary discipline linkages as a typical example. recent research (egbide & agbude, 2014; mergel, 2016; skoric, 2016) pointed out that internal control systems operated by majority local governments in the country are simply too weak. rampant rent-seeking and corruption practices, ethnicity, and politics have teamed up and generally compromised the icss efforts. consequently, the entities, whether urban or rural, never realize required budgetary discipline standards and often request fiscal bailouts (mergel, 2016; skoric, 2016). based on the preceding seemingly inconclusive social networks-internal control systems-budgetary discipline perspectives, the researchers predict that in local government: h4: internal control systems mediate social networks-budgetary discipline relationship. onyango-delewa social networks-budgetary discipline linkages in sub-national entities jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 116 research method from a geopolitical and administration perspective, uganda comprises seven regions: western, south-western, central, north-western, northern, north-eastern, and eastern regions (ministry of local government, 2019). this research explored budgetary activities of 33 districts, seven municipalities, and 345 sub-counties residents in north-western and eastern regions of the country. the local entities identified on both random and purposive sampling criteria (gennetian, magnuson & morris, 2008), have over the years, been empirically underscored for budgetary discipline and fiscal policy irregularities (egbide & agbude, 2014; ministry of local government, 2019). the study population of 946 people basically incorporated: resident district commissioners, chief administrative officers, local council 5 chairpersons, town clerks, heads of department, sub-county chiefs, finance-related employees, and community representatives (ministry of local government, 2019). the yamane (1973) sampling approach, underlined in gennetian et al. (2008) and von oertzen, brandmaier, and tsang (2015) research, was adopted to generate a sample size of 435 from the 946 population. given that similar cross-sectional research design and simulation studies (e.g., iacobucci, saldanha & deng, 2007; salibián-barrera & zamar, 2002) recommend a 70% response rate as quite reasonable, the 420 received-back questionnaires’ 97% response rate was found very satisfactory. this study's variable constructs were operationalized based on properly grounded measurements, systematically extracted from existing literature. methodological research, notably salibián-barrera and zamar (2002), posits that strong construct measures do not only enhance effective control of the common methods bias threat but significantly strengthen statistical results reliability. as stated earlier, common pool set-up, fiscal bailouts, and grants policy constitute the budgetary discipline constructs. accordingly, to effectively measure common pool set-up, a 14-item one-dimensional scale developed and validated by willoughby (2014) was employed. the scale with a relatively high and commendable cronbach’s alpha coefficient (α) [0.87] contained items such as: “this entity does not manage its commonpool concerns properly.” the fiscal bailout concept was measured by a 12-item scale; (α) [0.92], modified from the scholarly work of besfamille and lockwood (2008). sample items from the scale included: “bailout is a prevalent practice in this locality” and “it is because of rare fiscal bailouts that budget discipline in this entity has been inconsistent.” based on adjusted scales in egbide and agbude (2014) and nicolae (2013) studies, another 12-item scale (α) [0.79] was used in measuring the construct grants policy. one of its items ran as follows: “grants is a critical form of funding for this local government.” the probable local entity budgetary discipline predictor, social networks, was represented by socio-economic structure, partisan politics, and ethnicity as its key constructs. in order to effectively analyze its influence, the trio-constructs were measured along the following onyango-delewa social networks-budgetary discipline linkages in sub-national entities jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 117 lines: modified scales; (α) [0.94], from the works of oliveira and welch (2013) and porumbescu (2016) were adopted to verify the socio-economic factor structure. “budgetary activities in this locality are driven by what obtains in its socio-economic environment” is a sample item from the 15-item comprehensive scale. the construct of partisan politics was measured by 13 items embedded in a scale developed along the lines of those used by two scholars, cao et al. (2013) and mergel et al. (2016). a typical item in that scale (α) [0.83] stated that: “partisan politics is relevant for realistic budgetary discipline.” moreover, the item: “ethnicity defines local budgetary discipline realistically” was one of the 13 items comprising the scale employed to measure the ethnicity concept. that scale, with an (α) [0.83] set-up, was a derivative of the combined empirical works of researchers lavertu (2015) and skoric et al. (2016). borrowing ideas from scales in the giosi et al. (2014) and pettersson-lidbom (2010) research, a 14-item scale; (α) [0.95], was developed and engaged in measuring the anticipated mediator variable internal control systems. one of the scale items ran as follows: “this entity’s document authorization system is very efficient and often breeds desirable budgetary discipline outcomes.” empirical experience (e.g., gennetian et al., 2008; özer & yilmaz, 2011; shaver, 2005; warren et al., 2014) indicates that unless research participant biographical elements are controlled for, they tremendously compromise inter-variable statistical analysis results. accordingly, participants’ gender, age, marital status, educational level, position held, and period served were controlled for in this study (özer & yilmaz, 2011). furthermore, latent variables systematically adopted to boost research instrument validity verification were also controlled (von oertzenet al., 2015). given that such variables usually are initially subjected to confirmatory factor analysis, they tend to impair hypothesis test results unless controlled. thus, all the study latent variables were controlled for (salibián-barrera & zamar, 2002). in this research, statistical analysis was performed using statistical package for social sciences (spss) and analysis of moments structures (amos) software packages. as recommended by previous studies (gennetian et al., 2008; mergel et al., 2016), spss was engaged in handling participant biographical data, inter-variable correlation, and instrument reliability-validity assessments. the amos software facilitated hypothesis (direct-indirect effects) testing by basically employing its structural equation modeling (sem) module (von oertzen et al., 2015; iacobucci et al., 2007; salibián-barrera & zamar, 2002). several simulation scholars, notably von oertzen et al. (2015), trust sem for its exceptionally reliable hypothesis test results. the results were emanating from rational hypothesized model-original data comparisons. dependable results are tenable as long as two models, a control variable free-measurement model and a structural model, are run concurrently (von oertzen et al., 2015; iacobucci et al., 2007). onyango-delewa social networks-budgetary discipline linkages in sub-national entities jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 118 furthermore, the measurement model facilitated verification of common methods variance (cmv) or bias often linked to hypothesis test flaws. ideally, it may lead to spurious inter-variable relationship conclusions by either inflating or deflating results (von oertzen et al., 2015). thus, to effectively corroborate cmv presence, the researchers subjected data to harman’s one-factor test. harman’s test results must compare badly to those in the measurement model confirmatory factor (cfa) analysis to confirm that there is no cmv threat (salibián-barrera & zamar, 2002). result and discussion biographical data and inter-variable correlations much as the six participant biographical features indicated earlier had been statisticallycontrolled for, related analysis results ran as follows: gender: (f 43%, m 57%); age bracket: [(18-25) 14%; (26-33) 27%; (34-41) 42%; (42+) 17%]; marital status: (single 29%; married 58%; others 13%); education: (certificate 18%; diploma 24%; degree+ 58%); period served: (1-5) 33%; (6-10) 59%; (11+) 8%; [position held: (administrators and cfo, 16%; heads of department, 28%; finance activity-related employees, 37%; community representatives, 19%)]; n=420. table 1 variable means, standard deviations, reliability coefficients, and correlations no variable item m sd 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 social economic structures 3.41 1.664 .84 2 partisan politics 3.27 1.667 .43* .83 3 ethnicity 3.57 1.440 .71 .35* .87 4 social networks 4.32 3.171 .57** .42 .23 .79 5 internal control system 3.27 1.679 .38 .29 .17 .34** .81 6 common pool set-up 3.88 1.882 .44** .31 .26* .18 -.47* .88 7 fiscal bailouts 3.18 1.729 .22 .28* .41* .36 .15** .27 .74 8 grants policy 2.99 1.770 .31* .43 .23 .51** .21 .33* .47 .85 9 budgetary discipline 4.69 2.437 .18 .37* .28 .46** .27* .29 .34* .42 .86 notes: **correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed); *correlation is significant at the 0.05 level, (2tailed); reliability coefficients in parenthesis; n=420. source: data processed. as recommended by previous studies (nicolae, 2013; porumbescu, 2016), the abovementioned biographical profiles suggested that the surveyed entities’ operations were onyango-delewa social networks-budgetary discipline linkages in sub-national entities jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 119 fairly gender-balanced. besides, the fiscal activities were managed by a relatively mature and well-educated workforce with family responsibilities. statistical analysis results for variable means (m), standard deviations (sd), and correlation coefficients are presented in table 1. the displayed (m) [2.99:4.69] and (sd) [1.664:3.171] range results broadly depict relatively moderate and relevant values for the investigated variables and their constructs (porumbescu, 2016). additionally, it can also be observed that majority variable-construct reliability coefficients scope; [(α = 0.74) – (α =0.88)], has met the regular methodology literature (gennetian et al., 2008; von oertzen et al., 2015) acceptability endorsement. as regards the numerous inter-variable and construct correlations also highlighted in table 1, most of their [2-tail] coefficients were statistically significant at both (0.01) and (0.05) levels. the majority of these coefficients happened to fall in the [(-0.47) – (0.57)] range. specifically, budgetary discipline related with social networks and internal control systems to the extent of (r = 0.46, p < 0.01) and (r = 0.27, p < 0.05), respectively. as indicated in past studies (e.g., gennetian et al., 2008; shaver, 2005), such correlations technically suggest that as local entities capably manage their social networks and internal control systems to the magnitudes of 46% and 27%, targeted budgetary discipline standards are also attained to a similar level. comparatively, the budgetary discipline constructs, common pool set-up, social networks, and social-economic structures were associated with the extent of (r = -0.44, p < 0.01). likewise, the variable budgetary discipline held a negative; albeit, significant (r = -0.37, p < 0.05) relationship with the social network concept of partisan politics. respectively, the two results suggested that should locality social-economic structures improve by 44%; their common pool set-up performance declined by the same degree. moreover, as local partisan politics escalated to 37%, budgetary discipline standards tumbled by the same level (iacobucci et al., 2007). hypothesis testing in order to effectively unveil reliable hypothesis direct-indirect affect test results, research measurement models must be subjected to confirmatory factor analysis (cfa) (salibiánbarrera & zamar, 2002). moreover, other simulation empirical indications, notably (von oertzen et al., 2015), also emphasized that model cfa results should comprise quite moderately significant-item loadings and reasonable goodness-of-fit indices. analysis of the measurement model for this particular study revealed the following cfa output: (χ2 = 2.743, df = 11, χ2/df = 0.249; ifi = 0.961; tli = 0.981; cfi = 0.973; nnfi = onyango-delewa social networks-budgetary discipline linkages in sub-national entities jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 120 0.985; rmsea= 0.025; srmr = 0.06; l.000, h.214). accordingly, these results somehow concur with the von oertzen et al. (2015) and salibián-barrera and zamar (2002) insights. table 2 hypothesis test results dependent variable: budgetary discipline particulars β se t tv vif direct effects socio-economic structure → budgetary discipline .524* .326 .461 .792 1.208 partisan politics → budgetary discipline .357** .193 .896 .523 1.383 ethnicity → budgetary discipline -.375* .171 .917 .834 1.671 indirect (mediation) effect: regular sem results social networks → internal control systems → budgetary discipline .473* .247 .111 .687 1.413 indirect (mediation) effect: bootstrap results 95% ci [-0.124] ↔ [-0.317]; adjusted r2 [0.683] notes: β = beta; se = standard error; tv = tolerance value; vif =variable inflation factor; standardized beta coefficients reported; *p <.05; **p <.01; bootstrap sample size = 2500; ci = confidence interval; hypotheses status: hypothesis 1[supported]; hypothesis 2[supported]; hypothesis 3[not supported]; hypothesis 4[supported]; n = 420. source: data processed. as indicated in previous sections, the measurement model cfa results were also matched with those in harman’s single factor analysis to establish the common methods variance (cmv) position. given that the harman’s analytical set-up; (χ2 =4.951; df = 13; χ2/df = 0.381; ifi = 0.602; tli = 0.821; cfi = 0.834; rmsea = 0.115; l.106, h.124), compared badly with those of cfa, it implies that data employed in this research data were not under the cmv threat. furthermore, these results also reflected quite strong study instrument’s both construct and discriminate validity status (von oertzen et al., 2015; iacobucci et al., 2007). the proposed four; direct-indirect hypotheses, were tested based on the structural model running alongside the measurement model. fortunately, model’s goodness-of-fit indices: (χ2) = 3.597; df = 15; (χ2/df) = 0.240; gfi = 0.963; nfi = 0.951; rfi = 0.902; ifi = 0.991; tli = 0.972; cfi = 0.985; rmsea=.017; l.000; h.135) strength meets existing research (egbide & agbude, 2014; von oertzen et al., 2015; skoric et al., 2016) approval. the scholars, notably von oertzen et al. (2015) and skoric et al. (2016), caution simulation research that much as structural models’ goodness-of-fit indices may appear statistically appealing, they often conceal multi-collinearity setbacks. habitually, multi-collinearity, the abnormally robust inter-variable correlations, tremendously impair hypothesis testing (egbide & agbude, 2014; von oertzen et al., 2015). presented in table 2 are, among other things, tolerance values (tvs) and variance inflation factors (vifs) indicating the level of multi-collinearity threat in the data set. previous studies (e.g. besfamille & lockwood, 2008; oliveira & welch, 2013; salibián-barrera & zamar, 2002) posit that the threat is considered non-existing if [tv-vif] values happen to meet the following benchmarks: [(tv < 1.00) and (vif < 10.0)]. accordingly, it can be observed that the study data were not affected by the multi-collinearity problem (oliveira & welch, 2013). besides, the study’s regression model [adjusted r2 =.683] position and onyango-delewa social networks-budgetary discipline linkages in sub-national entities jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 121 the various statistical results of hypotheses direct and mediation effects were also provided in that tabulation. the two analytical frameworks are handled in the subsequent direct and indirect effects sections. direct effects based on input from the existing theory-research-practice set-up, it had been proposed as hypothesis 1 of this investigation that socio-economic structures surrounding local governments hold a positive relationship with their budgetary discipline endeavors. this prediction was advanced relative to the developing world's localities, especially those of sub-saharan africa and, in particular, those surveyed in uganda. related structural equation modeling (sem) analysis results; table 2, (β =.524, p <.05, t-value .461), suggest that data supported that hypothesis. moreover, in hypothesis 2, it had been predicted that partisan politics governing entity administrative machinery have a positive association with budgetary discipline. likewise, the sem statistical test results; (β = .357, p <.01, t-value .896), also indicated data support to that proposition. hypothesis 3, the last predictor proposal in this research, stated that ethnicity relates positively to changes in the local government's budgetary discipline. incidentally, the sem-regression statistical test results (β = -.375, p <.05, t-value .917) indicate that available data could not support that hypothesis. indirect (mediation) effect the theory-research-practice triangulation further prompted the proposition hypothesis 4. in this hypothesis, it had been projected that a local entity’s internal control system is an apparent mediator of its social networks-budgetary discipline linkages. accordingly, table 2 conventional sem-related indirect effect results (β = .473, p < .05, tvalue .111) proclaim that existing data rendered support to that hypothesis. much as some simulation literature (e.g., gennetian et al., 2008; shaver, 2005) emphasized sem analysis as ideal for inter-variable moderating and mediating effects analysis, others; iacobucci et al. (2007) and salibián-barrera and zamar (2002), claimed that associated results are rarely accurate and reliable. salibián-barrera and zamar (2002), in particular, emphasized that sem approach analysis cannot generate any consistent inter-variable mediation results simply because solitary samples often drive it. besides, the sem methodology also embraces all data-based latent factors, which often undermines output authenticity. thus, to validate the previous regular sem-based mediation results, bootstrapping technique was employed. mergel et al. (2016) and salibián-barrera and zamar (2002) consider bootstrapping an extremely effective manifold sub-sample and non-latent variable mediation assessment procedure whose results are exceptionally reliable. as also highlighted in table 2, the bootstrap results, rooted in some 2,500 sub-samples, regarding the social networks-internal control systems-budgetary discipline mediation onyango-delewa social networks-budgetary discipline linkages in sub-national entities jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 122 set-up were as follows: 95% bias-corrected interval (ci) [-0.124] ↔ [-0.317]. given that the (ci) held a no-zero value within it, that bootstrap interval or range reflected statistical significance regarding its variable contents. however, most saliently, salibián-barrera and zamar (2002) and other bootstrap scholars posit that the (ci) connotes a full mediation manifestation. as a reminder, table 2 regular sem-based mediation effect results (β = .473, p < .05, t-value .111) suggested that internal control systems was a mediator factor. this position was therefore confirmed by the bootstrap analysis. in a nutshell, the preceding conventional sem-bootstrapping mediation mutual outlook conveys the following local entity budgetary practical message: much as social network activities may be vital for attaining required budgetary discipline, internal control systems also matter. discussion in general terms, this study's results supported the overall proposal that social networks are critical for attaining required budgetary discipline standards in the local government. likewise, if appropriately managed, entity internal control systems play an essential role in the social networks-budgetary disciplined outfit. the following sections are a discussion of hypothesis-by-hypothesis statistical analysis findings concerning data reaction. in hypothesis 1, it had been projected that local entity budgetary discipline has a positive relationship with surrounding socio-economic structure. available data supported this proposal. it implies that, as remarked in previous literature (besfamille & lockwood, 2008; oliveira & welch, 2013; warren et al., 2014), society's economic well-being at both national and sub-national levels has serious implications in the way local budgetary activities are executed. for instance, warren et al. (2014) indicated that the way local tax collections and grants are managed determines the level of entity budgetary discipline. in most ugandan-based local governments, the warren et al. (2014) empirical view is quite logical. as egbide and agbude (2014) observed, most entities could not collect enough local taxes due to community poverty levels, and even the little collections are seriously vulnerable to the rent-seeking malaise. moreover, the central government rarely remits grants in sufficient amounts due to unreliable national tax collections. grants are often never managed effectively at the entity level due to lack of appropriate technical capacity and rampant corruption practices in most localities (egbide & agbude, 2014; skoric et al., 2016). data also supported the study proposition in hypothesis 2 that partisan politics relate positively with budgetary discipline in local government settings. in developing countries, especially those of sub-saharan africa, uganda inclusive, party-based politics divide onyango-delewa social networks-budgetary discipline linkages in sub-national entities jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 123 families, communities, and local administrative systems (besfamille & lockwood, 2008; cao et al., 2013; nicolae, 2013). in uganda, for instance, local entity administrators and employees are identified and recruited by the district service commission (dsc). empirical evidence (e.g., oliveira & welch, 2013; özer & yilmaz, 2011; porumbescu, 2016) affirmed that the dsc is primarily a partisan-politics machination and commonly appoints workforce on political allegiance basis. it is often in total disregard of their technical competence. such fiscal direction has serious implications for attaining the budgetary discipline dream (özer & yilmaz, 2011; porumbescu, 2016). furthermore, the current findings suggested that ethnicity, another social network attribute, played no positive role in attaining budgetary discipline in the local government. in contradiction to hypothesis 3 and prior research (lavertu, 2015; porumbescu, 2016) standpoint, much as various entities notably in sub-saharan africa host multiple tribes and ethnicities, budgetary allocation and implementation are independent of that influence. some scholars, such as oliveira and welch (2013), argued that from the ugandan context, such a position is only tenable in entity environments whose dsc structure is highly transparent and budgetary regulations are strictly adhered to. those types of dscs are rare to find even in the country’s quite developed urban local governments (oliveira & welch, 2013; özer & yilmaz, 2011). prior empirical research, particularly giosi et al. (2014) and pettersson-lidbom (2010), asserted that budgetary discipline could not be meaningfully attained unless a robust internal control system supported it at the local entity level. besides, giosi et al. (2014) indicate that much as other factors such as social networks and entity location are believed strong predictors of budgetary discipline, while internal controls are the inevitable in-house guide. a similar view embedded in the budgetary theory (davis et al., 1966; rubin, 1990; stedry, 1960) prompted the formulation of hypothesis 4: entity internal control system mediates the social networks-budgetary discipline association. with full backing from data, it could therefore be concluded that local entities need to operate reliable internal control systems to attain sustainable budgetary discipline standards. conclusion essentially, results generated in this research are interpreted from the budgetary theory model context, especially regarding local government fiscal operations. formulated by stedry (1960) and later advanced by both davis et al. (1966) and rubin (1990), the theory states that to realize entity fiscal efficiency, budgetary discipline must be always be attained. it is simply because ultimate budget beneficiaries, the community or society, evaluates fiscal efficiency based on fiscal incrementalism (davis et al., 1966). later, the empirical onyango-delewa social networks-budgetary discipline linkages in sub-national entities jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 124 work of rubin (1990) revealed that fiscal incrementalism significantly contributed to stedry's (1960) formulation of the budgetary theory. much as this study could not test fiscal incrementalism, budgetary theory’s principal component, its findings are consistent with major theoretical underpinnings. in particular, in accordance with related research (nicolae, 2013; özer & yilmaz, 2011; willoughby, 2014), the current researchers found that overall social network dynamics predicted changes in budgetary discipline. davis et al. (1966) indicated that the societal-economicpolitical environment often dictates entity efficiency ratings. thus, if the budget is implemented incompetently, budgetary discipline can be compromised and eventually impair societal fiscal incrementalism (davis et al., 1966; willoughby, 2014). this research’s findings also impact existing fiscal federalism literature and particularly local entity budgetary discipline knowledge body. notably, its findings are quite novel relative to past empirical set-up. the findings highlighted entity internal control systems mediation was born in the social networks-budgetary discipline triangulation along the following lines: despite previous studies’ (e.g., besfamille & lockwood, 2008; egbide & agbude, 2014; oliveira & welch, 2013; mergel et al., 2016) in-depth exploration of budgetary discipline, they largely overlooked the potential influence of internal control systems. likewise, the few scholarships which examined local government internal control systems-budgetary discipline linkages, notably giosi et al. (2014) and petterssonlidbom (2010), had no comprehensive analysis of the social network's influence. furthermore, this research held acute practical inferences to local entity budgetary endeavors. first, the study substantiated the value of socio-economic structure in enhancing budgetary discipline in local government. accordingly, primarily sub-sahara african-based entities and specifically uganda should endeavor to understand and comply with the socio-economic environment surrounding their budgetary expectations. consistent with nicolae (2013) and willoughby (2014) views, such regard to community economic needs will not only enhance entity fiscal incrementalism but also will significantly overhaul its federalism reputation. second, entity administrative machinery must also appreciate that fiscal federalism is a direct offshoot of political formation and decentralization. it is practically expected that entity authorities simply need to appreciate the governing partisan politics make-up and technically manage their budgets accordingly. budgetary theory (davis et al., 1966; rubin, 1990; stedry, 1960) emphasizes that institutional budgeting lies in the center of and will never avoid politics. third, clan hood, tribalism, and ethnicity are typical community ingredients in developing countries. much as this research reported no ethnic influence in ugandan-based surveyed local entities, previous studies have found it a practical norm. nevertheless, the researchers adopted (egbide & agbude, 2014; özer & yilmaz, 2011) the standpoint that entities should always guard against ethnicity if they have to realize sustainable budgetary discipline. onyango-delewa social networks-budgetary discipline linkages in sub-national entities jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 125 besides, ethnicity compromises workforce identification and deployment. in sensitive activities such as budgeting, weak personnel capacity weakens internal control structures and significantly undermines budget implementation (skoric et al., 2016). although this study contributes much to contemporary fiscal federalism and particularly local government budgeting research, it was also a host to some limitations. these include the following: data employed were large of a cross-sectional nature. such data are commonly susceptible to causal inference malaise characterized by reversed causality and/or confounding variable influences (gennetian et al., 2008). therefore, related common methods variance was first tested for and addressed based on confirmatory factor analysis-harman’s single-factor approach (von oertzen et al., 2015; salibián-barrera & zamar, 2002). the research was an investigation of budgetary discipline as it was obtained in local governments located in only the north-western and eastern regions of uganda. today, the country’s seven regions consist of around nine cities, multiple municipalities and towns, and 250 districts. it implies that much as data were collected from multiple entities, its findings might not be all-inclusive given the country’s recent federalism ambitions. against the foregoing study limitations background, it is suggested that future research may adopt longitudinal and/or experimental methodology to curtail further the constraints embedded in a cross-sectional design. as noted in past studies (e.g., cao et al., 2013; iacobucci et al., 2007), a broader research design is the most appropriate when investigations embrace newly-created entities. it is also proposed that future studies specifically carry out an exhaustive investigation of the ethnicity’s effect on local entity budgetary discipline undertakings. much as this research reported ethnicity-budgetary discipline non-connectivity in uganda’s investigated entities, sub-saharan africa fiscal federalism has long been reported a common victim of tribalism and ethnicity (giosi et al., 2014; mergel et al., 2016). references besfamille, m., & lockwood, b. 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(2014). public budgeting in context: structure, law, reform and results. john wiley & sons. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.giq.2013.11.007 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 22 nomor 1, april 2021 article type: research paper tourists’ preferences for sustainable tourism: the case of pok tunggal beach, yogyakarta indonesia endah saptutyningsih1* and aprio duanta2 abstract: tourists as the main actor in tourism industry play an essential role in achieving sustainable tourism. tourist preference for physical environment and infrastructure development in the tourism destination can affect the achievement of sustainable tourism. this study aims at measuring tourist preference for sustainable tourism management and calculating the economic value of the tourism destination. for this purpose, the pok tunggal beach tourist area in yogyakarta indonesia was considered as a case study site. a survey with 200 local tourists was conducted using the choice modeling (cm) technique to measure their preferences related to the development on the beach. this study found that tourists prefer to pay more fees to get better and more sustainable facilities. the economic value of the pok tunggal beach is the amount of idr 1,038,600 (usd 73.66). the main attributes in the destination, tourist's education, environmental awareness, and recreation costs are statistically significant in determining tourists' preferences. this study recommends pok tunggal beach quality improvement by considering the tourist preferences. this study also suggests a price for the entrance fees, not only to increase revenue but also to monitor and control the number of tourists who visit the beach. keywords: sustainable tourism; willingness to pay; choice modeling; economic value; tourist jel classification: o13, q26, q51 introduction the role of tourism in encouraging economic development is still being debated. some studies conclude that there are negative impacts of tourism such as a volatile demand and foreign capital (sinclair, 1998); disturbances in the labor market (nowak, sahli, & sgrò, 2004); dutch disease effects (nowak & sahli, 1999); and land competition and speculation e.g. (maupertuis & giannoni, 2005). the development to support the tourism sector creates other problems for the nature and the environment if the surge in tourist visits and development strategies are not planned properly (chang et al.,, 2018; mallawaarachchi, morrison, & blamey, 2006; rawi, 2012). therefore, coordination is needed by involving the participation of local communities as a sustainable development strategy for the development of the tourism industry (li et al., 2017; mallawaarachchi et al., 2006; vitasurya, 2016). affiliation: 1 department of economics, faculty of economics and business, universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta, special region of yogyakarta, indonesia *correspondence: endahsaptuty@umy.ac.id this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v22i1.10130 citation: saptutyningsih, e., & duanta, a. (2021). tourists’ preferences for sustainable tourism the case of pok tunggal beach, yogyakarta indonesia. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 22(1), 128-143. article history received: 03 nov 2020 revised: 18 dec 2020 17 apr 2021 accepted: 26 apr 2021 https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorid=57214445720 https://economics-feb.umy.ac.id/ https://economics-feb.umy.ac.id/ https://economics-feb.umy.ac.id/ https://economics-feb.umy.ac.id/ https://economics-feb.umy.ac.id/ mailto:endahsaptuty@umy.ac.id http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/10130 https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v22i1.10130&domain=pdf saptutyningsih & duanta tourists’ preferences for sustainable tourism … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 129 tourism is an important economic sector in indonesia. according to wehrli, schwarz, and settler (2011) sustainable tourism remains to be important in the future. sustainable tourism, according to niedziolka (2012), is “all types of tourism operations, management, and production that conserve environmental, economic, and social integrity and ensure the preservation of natural and cultural resources.” tourism sector also has a positive impact on the national economy and has become a potential mainstay for the indonesian economy. natural and cultural wealth is an important component in tourism in indonesia. indonesia’s nature has a combination of tropical climate, and there are 17,508 islands in it. this natural resource, if maximized, will help the regional economy. indonesia as an archipelago country with a wide ocean has the potential for its development and utilization. oceans and coasts are publicly-owned resources so that the oceans can be managed by the community with government permission. the area around the coast, if managed properly, will help the local economy. according to suparmoko, ratnaningsih, and yusuf (2000) anyone can use the sea and the coast and do not have to make payments (non-exclusion principle) and the use of someone over the sea and coast does not reduce the volume available to others (non-rivalry in consumption). in addition, sustainable tourism development must be aligned with the importance of maintaining biodiversity and natural resources (rawi, 2012) because sustainable natural and environmental conditions are assets that must be maintained for tourism sustainability (vitasurya, 2016). social demographic factors such as age, sex, education, and employment status influence the subjective valuation that tourism contributes to a sustainable environment (barros, 2012). in indonesia, tourism management has begun to increase with the program by the government that focuses on developing the coastal areas (patlis, 2005). fpr example, there has been yogyakarta special region province regulation number 1 of 2012 concerning the main plan for tourism development in yogyakarta special region province, 2012-2025. with the support from the government, the increase in tourist visits to the coasts will increase. from the data collected by the gunungkidul culture and tourism office, it is revealed that the level of tourist visits every year continues to increase. likewise, with the existing natural attractions in the gunungkidul area, more specifically the pok tunggal beach as one of the attractions favored by tourists, which is considered as the third most favorite destination after baron beach and indrayanti beach. pok tunggal beach is located 3 km east of pulang syawal beach, gunungkidul. this beach has been equipped with several facilities such as toilets, prayer rooms, parking lots and food stalls. such facilities make visiting easy and convenient for visitors, although these are still managed by the community. pok tunggal still has many shortcomings because there is no support from the government especially from the tourism office. for example, access to the beach is still a path, health station has not been built, search and resceu (sar) team on duty is still small and only available on the weekends and on holidays, parking space is inadequate and there are no janitors employed by the department of tourism. commonly used valuation methods are approaches of a changes in productivity, travel cost method, hedonic pricing method, and contingent valuation method. contingent choice modeling is the most recent unconventional economic valuation method developed to date. contingent choice modeling is used to quantify tourist perceptions saptutyningsih & duanta tourists’ preferences for sustainable tourism … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 130 about various alternative choices involving resources or the environment. in determining alternative choices, the strategy is very dependent on individual satisfaction and perceptions of the benefits and costs of resources, especially the coast because satisfaction is one indicator to assess natural resources. choice modeling approach can also analyze the effect of increasing special demand on the adoption of sustainable tourism policies (brau, 2008); and determine the value of environmental economic valuations and tourist preferences for sustainable products (chang et al., 2018; chen, & chen, 2016; do & bennett, 2009; mallawaarachchi et al., 2006; peng & oleson, 2017; tait et al., 2011; wehrli et al., 2011). conversely, if an individual being asked is entitled to these natural resources, then the relevant measurement is the desire to receive the minimum compensation for the loss or damage to the natural resources he has (garrod & willis, 1999). contingent valuation method (cvm) is chosen because it can (1) estimate the willingness to pay for changes that increase the quality of tourism activities; (2) assess trips with multiple tourist destinations; (3) assess the enjoyment when in the environment for both users and nonusers of the natural resources; (4) value goods whose value is too low to assess with other methods (prasetyo & saptutyningsih, 2013) . (shin, kim, & son (2017) use choice modeling and calculate tourists' willingness to pay for travel attributes. choice modeling is used to obtain willingness to pay (wtp) for households, local communities, and tourists to increase the benefits from natural resources, the environment, and tourism industry in general (kanyoka, farolfi, & morardet, 2008; lee, 2012; peng & oleson, 2017). choi, ritchie, papandrea, and bennett (2010) in their research on economic valuation of cultural heritage sites using the choice modeling approach stated that organizing events and building facilities such as cafes and shops have a positive impact on economic valuations. tourist preferences for attractions and the nature need to be identified to improve the provision of services in tourism facilities (brau, 2008; chen & chen, 2016; choi et al., 2010) by applying the choice modeling method. based on previous studies, tourist wtp is influenced by income factors (amanda, 2009; chambers, chambers, & whitehead, 1998; prasetyo & saptutyningsih, 2013; salazar & marques, 2005; samdin et al., 2010; varahrami, 2012; yun et al., 2012). the cost of recreation influences tourists’ wtp (amanda, 2009); as well as the level of education (prasetyo & saptutyningsih, 2013; samdin et al., 2010). according to varahrami (2012) satisfaction has a positive effect on travelers' wtp. the studies focusing on tourists’ preference toward sustainable tourism in indonesia remains rare. to fill in this knowledge gap, this study examines tourists’ preference between alternative scenarios for sustainable tourism and then determines the wtp for the improvement of the environment that aligns with sustainable tourism goals. we surveyed tourists in villages in pok tunggal beach, that is a tourist destination in yogyakarta, indonesia, regularly visited by many tourists. the number of tourist visits becomes the basic principle to determine the status of a tourist attraction. the higher the level of tourist visits, the more relevant it is to be classified into a tourist attraction that is developed and developing. this becomes the basis of government-community cooperation to plan development so that the tourist destination continues to grow and to be visited by more tourists. in particular, roads and facilities must be improved to facilitate more visits. using a choice modeling approach, we examined the impacts of saptutyningsih & duanta tourists’ preferences for sustainable tourism … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 131 sociodemographic factors, facilities, environmental awareness, and recreational cost on the preference between alternative scenarios for sustainable tourism. this study contributes to the literature by identifying the tourists’ preference for sustainable tourism and the economic value of pok tunggal beach by determining the wtp for the improvement of the environmental qualities. table 1 the variable references variables relation references level of education positive prasetyo & saptutyningsih, 2013; samdin et al. 2010; sylvia, 2016; djijono, 2002 facilities negative chen & chen, 2016; brau, 2008; choi et al., 2010. environmental awareness positive widiyanti, 2016; sylvia, 2016; prasmatiwi et al., 2011; recreational costs positive prasetyo & saptutyningsih, 2013; sylvia, 2009; widiyanti, 2016; djijono, 2002 source: data processed. research method study site the study was conducted at the pok tunggal beach, which is located in kemadang village, tanjungsari district, gunungkidul regency, special region of yogyakarta. this location was chosen by considering its economic potential as a tourist attraction in yogyakarta province. the subjects in this study were tourists in the pok tunggal beach tour which is located in kemadang village, tanjungsari district, gunungkidul regency, special region of yogyakarta. sampling the sampling technique in this study is accidental random sampling. some advantages of random sampling are: easy sample selection procedures, only one type of sample selection unit, avoidable misclassification, simple and easy sample outline and sample design. according to sekaran and bougie (2009) the minimum sample size can be determined by multiplying the number of variables by 10. the variables in this study are 4, so the minimum sample is 40 respondents. the number of samples in this study is 200. data collection technique is by using a questionnaire containing a number of questions related to the problem (pok tunggal beach tourist, gunung kidul), which was distributed to respondents with the aim of obtaining data that answers the research questions. saptutyningsih & duanta tourists’ preferences for sustainable tourism … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 132 table 2 research questions category variables willingness to pay (wtp) wtp is the maximum amount that someone is willing to pay to get a good quality of service (fauzi, 2006) in units of rupiah (idr) visitor choice visitor choice is an alternative choice offered to visitors to improve the quality of the beach environment. these choices are formatted in discrete 1–0 where 0 is option a; 1 is option b recreational costs recreation costs are the total costs incurred by tourists related to tourist activities carried out at tourist sites, not including the cost of admission. recreation costs include transportation costs, consumption costs, accommodation, documentation, and others. the cost of recreation is measured in rupiah (idr). condition the condition here is people's perception of the condition or condition of pok tunggal beach compared to other tourist attractions in kemadang village, tanjungsari district. 1 = good; 0 = not good level of education the education referred to in this study is the length of formal education achieved by visitors. in this study, the length of education is measured from elementary school level and based on a normal measure of educational travel time. attribute the attributes are the choice of repairing the facilities, which are in the pok tunggal beach location. for example: road access, garbage dump facilities, resting places, and health station as well as the availability of sar team. 0 = disagree; 1 = agree. source: data processed. analysis tools choice modeling or cm is a preference assessment method that starts with a conjoint analysis and is initially developed in the marketing and transportation sectors (richter, & keuchel, 2012). cm is also a technique based on statements from individuals to estimate the non-market economic value of a natural resource. in their application, respondents are given a series of choices consisting of two or more alternative choices. one alternative is a combination of several attributes that have values, or commonly called levels. cm has an important position because it directly assesses characteristics of an attribute and marginal change of the characters rather than just choosing the good or the needs of a product as a whole. the advantages of cm method: a. provide several alternative options for consideration (strengths and weaknesses) for the respondent. b. each attribute is clearly spelled out and the alternatives offered are adjusted according to the attributes. xin and xjn = variables that affect behavior to maximize satisfaction. f = mathematical function saptutyningsih & duanta tourists’ preferences for sustainable tourism … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 133 the regression equation is as follows: vin or u = β1xin1 + β2xin2 + ... + βkxink where vin or u is value of respondent satisfaction when choosing alternative i (maximum decision); vin s/d βkxink means a group of independent variables that affect maximum satisfaction; β1 to βk is the regression coefficient. a utility can be interpreted as a special measure of individuals in determining the best alternative choices or choices maximized by individuals. a utility is a function of alternative attributes of a decision-maker characteristics, which is usually assumed in a linear form. the utility of utilizing natural resources such as the pok tunggal beach for recreation areas for certain individuals is presented as a function of attributes, such as the required travel time, entrance fees, additional facilities, parking fees, and others. while the attributes that make decisions are income, number of family members, age and occupation. utilities are not measured directly so that some attributes affect individual utilities must be treated as random shapes. therefore, they must be randomly modeled as well, meaning that the choice being modeled only gives probabilities to the chosen alternatives instead of just their own choice. each choice has a u utility for each individual n, so in making the model it is assumed that u can be expressed in 2 components, namely a. vin that is measured as an attribute function b. the random part εin that reflects the specific features of each individual including errors made by modeling uin = vin + εin where uin is an alternative utility i for decision-makers n; vin is a deterministic function of alternative utilities i for individuals n; and εin is random error. in simple terms, the function of a method based on individual utility in question can be written as follows: p (u0> u1) = p (x0β x1β> v0 v1 where (u0> u1) means someone will choose the option 0 if the utility is greater from choice 1; x is the vector of the attribute that affects the utility; v is a random variable from utility. the above model predicts that a possible alternative has been chosen. finally, the value of willingness to pay (wtp) obtained indirectly becomes (putrantomo, 2010): 𝑊𝑇𝑃 = [ ∑ 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝛽1𝑖 ∑ 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝛽1𝑖 + ⋯ + ∑ 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝛽𝑛𝑖 ∑ 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝛽1𝑖 ] saptutyningsih & duanta tourists’ preferences for sustainable tourism … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 134 research model based on empirical studies, the regression model in this study is as follows: choice = f (cost vector, public perception vector, social vector demographics, attribute vectors) choice = f (β0 + β1cost + β2cond + β3edu + β4a attribute) where choice is visitor choice; β0 is constant; β1 ... β6 is the regression coefficient; cost is recreation fee (in idr); cond is pok tunggal beach condition compared to other tourist attractions; edu is the length of education (in a year); attributes are the improvements of the existing facilities at the location. visitor choice opportunities to calculate the chances of visitors choosing the alternative options available, the following formula is used (widodo, 2013): 𝑃 = 𝑒 𝐿 1 + 𝑒 𝐿 where p is chance of occurrence; el is an exponential of l; l is ɩn [p/1-p] or logit index. result and discussion this study uses primary data by conducting interviews and asking 200 respondents who were visitors to pok tunggal beach to fil out questionnaire. this study began on july 6, 2017, and ended on august 20, 2017. characteristics of respondents is presented in table 3. regarding the education, visitors of pok tunggal beach were mostly teenagers with senior high school/equivalent education with a percentage reaching 55.5 percent. predominantly, the age range was between 20 and 25 with a percentage of 62.5 percent. respondent occupations were mostly students with a percentage of 52 percent, followed by employees of a private company and entrepreneurs. the remaining was civil servants and housewife 1.5 percent. the income level of respondents was sufficiently varied in the range of idr 500,000 to idr 5,000,000. the dominant income level of respondents in this study was in the range of idr 3,000,000 to idr 5,000,000 with percentage reaching 71. the majority of respondents who came to pok tunggal beach were male with a percentage of 73 percent, and visitors mostly unmarried with a percentage of 80 percent. the majority of respondents came to pok tunggal beach only once or twice as can be seen from the percentage of the frequency of visits that was 80 percent. the cost of the visit incurred by respondents to the pok tunggal beach is quite cheap, ranging from idr 10,000,000 to idr 30,000.00 with a percentage of 47.5 percent. saptutyningsih & duanta tourists’ preferences for sustainable tourism … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 135 tabel 3 respondent characteristics characteristics classification total percentage level of education primary school not graduated primary school/equivalent junior high school/equivalent senior high school/equivalent diploma3/s1 12 111 76 6 55,5 38 age 14-19 year 20-25 year 26-31 year 32-37 year ≥ 38 year 33 125 22 11 9 16,5 62,5 11 5,5 4,5 type of work student civil servant private employees entrepreneur housewife 104 23 38 32 3 52 11,5 19 16 1,5 income level idr 500,000 – idr 1,000,000 idr 1,000,000 – idr 3,000,000 idr 3,000,000 – idr 5,000,000 >idr 5,000,000 52 103 142 3 26 51,5 71 1,5 gender male female 146 51 73 25,5 marital status married single 40 160 20 80 frequency of visits 1-2 3-4 5-6 7-8 >8 160 31 3 1 5 80 15,5 1,5 0,5 2,5 the cost of a visit idr 10,000 idr 30,000 idr 31,000 idr 50,000 idr 51.000 idr 70,000 idr 71,000 idr 100,000 95 73 7 25 47,5 36,5 3,5 12,5 source: data processed. this research began on march 24, 2017 until june 1, 2017, at pok tunggal beach, gunungkidul. the data was obtained by conducting interviews and then distributing questionnaires that were filled out by 200. because regression results are good, there is no reduction in the results provided by respondents so all of the data could be processed. this model is almost similar to the contingent valuation method because it is based on the preferences of respondents to estimate the economic value in an ecosystem in the form of goods and services. the difference is that respondents are free to choose the options that are available. clearly, respondents are not asked to provide a direct assessment of an ecosystem related to their preferred conditions. choice modeling is a method in which respondents are free to make choices based on personal observations in a scenario. for example, respondents are given a choice based on a scenario that has been made consisting of two or more alternative choices. one alternative is a combination of several attributes that have a value commonly referred to as a level. the wtp value of this model is determined indirectly based on the choices given by respondents. saptutyningsih & duanta tourists’ preferences for sustainable tourism … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 136 in this study, respondents were given two choices to choose from in terms of preserving the beach and building facilities in the area around the pok tunggal. the scenario is an alternative choice to determine the beach entry fee. each alternative option is given along with various attributes such as cost, improvement of facilities and infrastructure in the coastal area (see table 4). table 4 alternative scenarios for visitor options source: data processed. out of 200 respondents, as many as 96 visitors or 48 percent chose alternative a and as many as 104 visitors 52 percent choose alternative b. this can be interpreted that visitors choose alternative b over alternative a. from this result it can be seen that visitors are willing to pay dearly for the convenience and improvement of the location of a single pok tunggal beach and it can be concluded that the level of visitor awareness to improve the quality of the pok tunggal is very good and visitors want an increase the quality of all aspects such as health station, roads and provision of beach guards. those who choose the alternative a are mostly students who consider the fee affordable. attribute initial conditions option a option b entry fee idr 9,500 idr 15,000 idr 25,000 parking fee idr 2,000 (motorcycle) idr 5,000 (car) idr 2,000 (motorcycle) idr 5,000 (car) free parking fees trash can insufficient number of trash cans that is only 5 small trash cans, so visitors sometimes litter addition of 2 large trash cans so that cleanliness of the beach area is maintained addition of 4 large trash cans so that cleanliness of the beach area is maintained road the road is made of cement material so it breaks quickly and if it rains there are some pot holes that are hollow and muddy repair road access to pok tunggal beach area by patching the damaged road so when it rains it will not be hollow and muddy asphalting road access to pok tunggal beach area so it lasts longer and access is easier health station health station has still not built building a health station so visitors have health problems, the response is fast adequate health station and complete medical equipment so visitors have health problems, handling is quick and responsive resting area there is no gazebo and rest area building one gazebo to rest building three more gazebos to rest beach guard there are two guards or officers to control the visitors adding two more guards or officers to control and keep visitors from going to prohibited areas on the beach adding three more guards or officers to control and keep visitors from going to prohibited areas on the beach saptutyningsih & duanta tourists’ preferences for sustainable tourism … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 137 opportunities for respondents in choosing alternatives provides regression analysis using binary logistic regression. in choice modeling, visitors are given two alternative choices that will be given a value between 0 and 1. this assumption is given to state the visitor's decision in choosing one alternative (1) and not choosing an alternative (0). tabel 5 dependent variables variables internal value alternative model a 0 alternative model b 1 source: data processed. the information is obtained that the dependent variable has two categories, namely 0 for alternative models a and 1 for alternative model b (see table 5). the value of wtp is obtained directly but is concluded indirectly based on the decision of the respondents, and then the wtp is analyzed using the binary logistic method. tabel 6 regression result variables coefficient exp (b) education 0,821*** (0,273) 2,273 facilities -0,096 (0.098) 0,908 environmental awareness 0,012** (0,006) 1,012 recreational costs 0,000* (0,000) 1,000 constant -3,555* (1,856) 0,029 nagelkerke r square 0,112 dependent variable choice (alternative choice) 0: if choosing a; 1 if choosing b. the sign ( ) indicates a standard error * significant at α 10%; ** significant at α: 5%; *** significant at α 1% source: data processed. the level of education is positively corelated to alternative choices. visitors with a higher education level have the tendency to choose alternative choice b compared to visitors with lower education levels. thus, if the visitor's education level is higher then there will be an increase in the probability of visitors choosing b alternative and vice versa. the facilities of the pok tunggal beach location are negatively related but not significant to the alternative choices, which can be interpreted that the facilities at the beach location are not a factor for visitors to choose alternative options a or b. facilities are not a priority because pok tunggal beach’s facilities as offered by the management has met the needs of visitors such as toilets, gazebos, and restaurants. the environmental awareness of pok tunggal beach visitors has a positive value on alternative choices. visitors who have good environmental awareness tend to choose saptutyningsih & duanta tourists’ preferences for sustainable tourism … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 138 alternative b compared to those who feel less concerned with environmental issues. this means that if the environmental awareness of pok tunggal beach visitors is higher, then there will be an increase in the probability of visitors choosing alternative b and vice versa. the recreational costs are positive for alternative choices. thus, visitors with greater recreation costs will choose alternative b compared to visitors with smaller recreation costs. the higher the recreational costs of the visitors, the greater the tendency to choose alternative b and vice versa. nagelkerke r square value of 0.112, which means as much as 11.2% diversity can be explained by the model, while the rest (100% -11.2%) = 88.8% is explained by other factors (variables) outside the research model. the value of tourists’ wtp for alternative visitor choices is indirectly obtained by using the equation: 𝑊𝑇𝑃 = [ ∑ exp 𝛽1𝑖 ∑ exp 𝛽1𝑖 + … + ∑ exp 𝛽𝑛𝑖 ∑ exp 𝛽1𝑖 ] 𝑊𝑇𝑃 = 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝐸𝑑𝑢 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡 + 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑆𝑎𝑟𝑎𝑛𝑎 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡 + 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝐸𝑛𝑣 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡 + 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡 = 5,193 based on the equation, the visitors’ wtp value is obtained to improve the environmental quality of the pok tunggal beach, gunungkidul that amounts to idr 5,193 (usd 0.37) per person. multiplied by 200 (visitors), the wtp results in the economic value of pok tunggal beach tourism, gunungkidul is idr1,038,600 (usd 73.66). the research findings have shown that the level of education has a positive and significant influence on the choice made by visitors to improve the quality of the beach environment in pok tunggal gunungkidul. this finding was supported by some studies (amanda, 2009; djijono, 2002; prasetyo & saptutyningsih, 2013; samdin et al., 2010). if the education level is higher then there will be an increase in the probability choosing choice b. this is in accordance with the initial hypothesis stating that the level education has a significant positive effect on visitor choices to improve the quality of the environment around pok tunggal beach area. the results of this study are the same as the research conducted by prasetyo and saptutyningsih, (2013) with a case study of wtp in an integrated waste management effort in the district of west semarang which argues that the level of education has a positive effect. this is because visitors want to feel an increase in environmental quality aspects. however, to increase the facilities, the cost is high. with high level of education, visitors have a higher level of awareness to maintain and improve the quality of the environment. the entrant fee might be considered expensive but visitors do not mind if the facilities meet the value for money. the findings also show that facilities or location attributes in pok tunggal beach have a negative and not significant effect on the choice of visitors to improve the quality of the environment of the pok tunggal beach. this means the facility is not one of the factors that drive visitors to choose alternative a or b. this is not in line with the initial hypothesis. saptutyningsih & duanta tourists’ preferences for sustainable tourism … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 139 the factors that affect visitors are whether or not visitors consider the facilities offered by the beach manager have met the needs. another factor is that the beach area is too small so that the construction of facilities will be difficult because building facilities will make the beach line shorter and damage the beautiful scenery. the construction itself will block the entrance to the beach area. this research is in line with research conducted by widiyanti (2016) case study of the bangi market mangrove forest stating that the location attributes had a negative but significant effect on the wtp for improving the quality of the mangrove forest environment. awareness of environmental issues shows a positive and significant effect on the choice of visitors. higher level of environmental awareness will increase the probability of choosing alternative b. this is consistent with the initial hypothesis that environmental awareness has a positive effect on improving environmental quality. this is similar to the research conducted by putrantomo (2010) with a case study in the coral reef, karimunjawa national park. the conditions of other places did not significantly influence the alternative choice of tourists to choose a snorkeling location. awareness of the environmental quality is also positive. visitors realize the importance of protecting the environment such as by keeping the cleanliness of the beach.if there is a lot of rubbish scattered and trash cans are not available, visitors will feel disappointed and they might litter the beach so the sea will be polluted. this will then negatively impact on the flora and fauna around the coast. recreation costs also have a positive and significant effect on the choice made by visitors to improve the quality of pok tunggal environment. the higher the recreational costs, the higher the probability of choosing alternative b. this is in accordance with the initial hypothesis and in line with the results of the research conducted by amanda (2009) with the lake situgede tourism case study. the recreational cost variable has a significantly positive effect on choices visitors made as an effort to preserve lake situgede. visitor choice opportunities opportunities for visitors to choose show the magnitude of opportunities owned by visitors. this visitor choice is used to find out which alternatives are the most chosen. the chances of visitors choosing an alternative are calculated by the following formula (widodo, 2013): 𝑃 = 𝑒 𝐿 1 + 𝑒 𝐿 where p = chance of occurrence; el= exponential of l; l= ɩn [p / (1-p)] or logit index. the chances for visitors to choose alternative a to improve the quality of the pok tunggal beach environment: 𝑃 = 𝑒 𝐿 1 + 𝑒 𝐿 = 0,923077 1 + 0,923077 = 0.48 saptutyningsih & duanta tourists’ preferences for sustainable tourism … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 140 it means that the chance for visitors who choose alternative a to improve the quality of the pok tunggal beach in gunungkidul is 0.48. the chance for visitors to choose alternative b to improve the quality of the pok tunggal beach environment: ṕ (0) = 1 0.480 = 0.520 it means that the opportunity for visitors who choose alternative b to improve the quality of the pok tunggal beach in gunungkidul is 0.520 the calculation of visitors’ choice concludes that the p-value for alternative choice a is 0.480 and the p-value for alternative option b is 0.520, indicating that visitors to pok tunggal beach tend to choose alternative choice b, with a higher entrance fee. visitors do not mind paying if the facilities are more complete. it can be concluded that visitors’ awareness is quite good. hence, it would not be too much to ask them to help maintaining the environment and the facilities. conclusion by applying cm, this study can identify visitor options in order to improve the quality of the coastal environment for sustainable tourism. this study offeres some scenarios for sustainable tourism which in indonesia remains rare. it also sets the wtp for environmental change that is in line with long-term tourism goals. using the cm approach, wtp value of idr 5,193 per person is obtained and is also payable in one visit. therefore, the economic value of the pok tunggal beach, with 200 visitors is idr 1,038,600. there were two choices should be chosen by visitors. choice a with entry fee of idr 15,000, parking fee, two large trash, repair road access, building a health station and gazebo, as well as add two more guards. while choice b with entry fee of of idr 25,000, no parking fee, four large trash, asphalting road access, adequate health station and gazebo, as well as add three more guards. environmental awareness has a positive and significant impact. the higher the level of awareness, the higher the probability to choose choice b. visitor recreation costs have a positive and significant effect. the higher the level of cost, the higher the probability to choose choice b. overall, visitors are more inclined to choose alternative b. a recommendation for the management is that they should charge an admission ticket in accordance with the wtp in this study that is close to alternative b. visitors are mostly students, so the level of environmental awareness is quite high. this should be coupled with a strict regulation to keep the environment clean. meanwhile, facilities and infrastructure are considered quite sufficient and do not influence visitor choices, but facilities can always be improved, especially the roads and the procurement of sar team and health team. awareness of the environment has a positive and significant effect. maintaining and preserving the environment and the flora and fauna should be done sustainably. it is recommended for the management to install signage and information board that shows saptutyningsih & duanta tourists’ preferences for sustainable tourism … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 141 visitors the danger of damaging the environment. the cost of recreation has a positive and significant effect too. the management should see this as an opportunity to improve the facilities. visitors are willing to pay more as long as the facilities can make their visits convenient. however, visitor satisfaction 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(2012). a field survey of visual comfort and lighting energy consumption in open plan offices. energy and buildings, 46, 146–151. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2011.10.035 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.culher.2004.09.001 https://doi.org/10.3390/su9040639 https://doi.org/10.1080/00220389808422535 https://doi.org/10.1080/00288233.2011.588234 https://socialscienceresearch.org/index.php/gjhss/article/view/495 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2015.12.014 https://www.cabdirect.org/cabdirect/abstract/20133157335 http://repository.umy.ac.id/handle/123456789/5617?show=full https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2011.10.035 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 22 nomor 1, april 2021 article type: research paper the impact of airport construction on farm households’ income olga melinda matufany1, istiqomah1*, nunik kadarwati1, and sodik dwi purnomo2 abstract: infrastructure development is needed to encourage economic growth. however, infrastructure development requires land acquisition, which may adversely impact the community. this study aims to analyze the impact of kertajati international airport construction on the farm households’ income and welfare level. this research data used primary data with a simple random sampling method to select 76 farm households in the most affected village. the analysis techniques were income analysis and paired sample t-test. the results showed that farm income was significantly higher before the airport construction. nevertheless, off-farm income increased after the airport construction, leading to an insignificant household income difference before and after the land acquisition. as for the prosperity level, on average, the farm households lived below the decent living standard. the results imply the importance of increasing farmers’ capacity so that that compensation funds can be utilized to increase household income. keywords: airport construction; farm household income; land acquisition; welfare jel classification: d13, d62, q12 introduction the efficient and effective transportation system has many positive impacts on economic growth, such as reducing transportation and production costs through timely delivery and economic scale improvement, integrated markets, broader economic opportunities, and increasingly widespread communication links, enhancing competitive advantage. it also generates many job opportunities and encourages tourism and foreign investment (mohmand, wang, & saeed, 2016). transportation has various benefits for human life, including social, economic, political, and physical benefits. moreover, transportation can save operating costs for business, save time for passengers and cargo, reduce accidents, reduce congestion, and facilitate logistic distribution. besides, indonesia is an archipelago, making the sea and air transportation sector specifically essential as a hub for inter-island and regional mobility of goods and passengers. therefore, effective and efficient transportation is highly required, especially air transportation for regional development. affiliation: 1 department of economics and development studies, faculty of economics and business, universitas jenderal soedirman, central java, indonesia 2 department of economics and development studies, faculty of economics and business, universitas wijayakusuma, central java, indonesia *correspondence: istiqomah@unsoed.ac.id this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v22i1.9206 citation: matufany, o.m., istiqomah, i., kadarwati, n., & purnomo, s.d. (2021). the impact of airport construction on farm households’ income. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 22(1), 1-11. article history received: 27 june 2020 revised: 20 july 2020 20 aug 2020 accepted: 03 dec 2020 https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?user=58uuniqaaaaj&hl=en https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?user=cfhpmkwaaaaj&hl=en https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?user=oxcey2iaaaaj&hl=en http://iesp.feb.unsoed.ac.id/ http://iesp.feb.unsoed.ac.id/ http://iesp.feb.unsoed.ac.id/ http://iesp.feb.unsoed.ac.id/ http://iesp.feb.unsoed.ac.id/ https://unwiku.ac.id/ https://unwiku.ac.id/ https://unwiku.ac.id/ https://unwiku.ac.id/ https://unwiku.ac.id/ mailto:istiqomah@unsoed.ac.id http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/9206 https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v22i1.9206&domain=pdf matufany, istiqomah, kadarwati, & purnomo the impact of airport construction on farm households’ income jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 2 during 2014-2017, the transportation and warehousing sector performed the highest average growth of 7.24 percent even though it was the sixth-highest contributor to gdp. this sector’s growth is greatly influenced by the dynamics of community mobilization and economic activity. its importance is reflected in the increasing need for transportation services to facilitate people and goods' mobility from and throughout the country and abroad. from year to year, the air transportation subsector’s growth has increased rapidly and ranked second in the transportation and warehousing sector after the railway transportation’s growth. investment in infrastructure development for a public purpose is vital for the development of any country, and the first step towards public infrastructure development is land acquisition. in 2017, indonesia planned 15 new airports’ construction, some of which have been officially in use, and some are still under construction. one of them, kertajati international airport, is located in kertajati, majalengka regency, west java. this airport construction has long been planned. the plan was realized with the ratification of the regional regulation of west java province number 13 of 2010 concerning the development of kertajati international airport and kertajati aero city. in general, the airport construction would provide significant benefits to west java province. however, airport development showed positive and negative impacts on the kertajati subdistrict community, majalengka regency, west java province. moreover, the airport construction requires the acquisition of 1,800 hectares of land covering five villages in the kertajati subdistrict: kertajati, kertasari, sukamulya, bantarjati, and sukakerta (agriculture and forestry extension center of kertajati district, 2016). land acquisition is defined in presidential regulation no. 36/2005 as an activity to acquire land by providing compensation to those who release land, buildings, plants, and objects related to the land or revocation of land rights. land acquisition for airport construction was carried out from 2009-2018, including paddy fields and dry land. the biggest land acquisition was observed in 2010, covering an area of 451.91 hectares. the land acquisition included paddy land and dry land that had been legally released from the community to the government. the converted land was mainly agricultural. the land acquisition received compensation from the government. land compensation received by farmers was different from one another. it was due to differences in the landholding and the tax object sales value (njop). many issues, including loss of ownership and livelihood of the affected people, arose during land acquisition. infrastructure development often dislocates home, business, and farms (dutta, 2015). ogwang and vanclay (2019), who examined the social impacts of project land acquisition associated with oil production in the albertine graben, uganda region, suggested that people with qualifications benefit from the job opportunities. however, many other negative effects have been taking place, such as higher food insecurity of the displaced people, diminishing social and cultural cohesion, and reduced social services access. it has been exacerbated by rising immigration and more intense crime and social issues. similarly, large-scale land acquisition for multinational companies in the pru east ghana had a significant positive moderate effect on employment, healthcare, and food security but had a significant negative effect on farm households' matufany, istiqomah, kadarwati, & purnomo the impact of airport construction on farm households’ income jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 3 income levels. therefore, it is recommended that large-scale land investors employ people from the projects' host communities (quansah, ansah, & mensah, 2020). in this case, majalengka regency is an area with potential in the agricultural sector. it is supported by fertile soil conditions and the availability of an adequate water supply. with an agricultural land area of 66.45 percent of the entire area of majalengka regency (statistics indonesia, 2017), the agricultural sector is the most dominant in the economic structure of majalengka regency. therefore, the agricultural sector is the primary economic driver in majalengka. however, the agricultural sector that absorbs the largest number of workers from 2014 to 2017 experienced a decline every year. it was partly due to land acquisition for the development of kertajati international airport. in kertajati subdistrict, several villages were affected by land conversion due to kertajati international airport development. sukamulya village was the most affected by land acquisition for the airport construction. as a result, the airport construction has changed farmers' livelihoods and income because the shrinking agricultural land reduced farm household income, thus affecting the welfare level. necessarily, farmer welfare is the goal of agricultural development and national development. according to indonesian government law no. 41/2009 on social welfare, welfare is a state of fulfilling the needs of a decent life for the community to develop themselves and carry out social functions organized by the central government, regional government, and community. the aspects used as welfare indicators according to the central bureau of statistics (bps) are household income, household consumption/expenditure, living conditions, living facilities, household members’ health, ease of use of health workforce facilities, household members’ quality of education, ease of entering children in education, security from interference with crime, and ease of accessing information, technology, and communication. household income is used as an indicator to measure welfare level. welfare measurement based on farm household income can be calculated and compared with decent living needs (khl). in this study, household income was compared with khl of majalengka regency in 2018. furthermore, welfare is the final goal of development, and income is one indicator of the welfare’s achievement in a household, including farm households. this study aims to compare a farmer household's income before and after the kertajati international airport construction in sukamulya village, kertajati sub-district, majalengka regency and analyze the farm households’ welfare level in the village based on majalengka regency 2018 decent living needs (khl) standard. based on their research, hidayat, ismail, and ekayani (2017) divided the value of economic losses due to bijb (west java international airport) development into four categories: loss of farm employment opportunities, loss of rice production, reduced rice farming income, and reduced farm household income. however, they did not explore the potential employment in non-farm income. hence, this paper compared farm household income, including on-farm and non-farm income, before and after the bijb construction. therefore, this paper contributes to a thorough understanding of the bijb construction’s effect on farm household income from multiple sources. despite the declining matufany, istiqomah, kadarwati, & purnomo the impact of airport construction on farm households’ income jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 4 landholding due to acquisition, the new infrastructure development also provides employment opportunities for farm households. research method this research used a quantitative approach by comparing the farm household income before and after the airport construction, where there was a statistically significant difference. comparative research according to sugiyono (2014) is a study that compares the state of one or more variables in two or more different samples, or two different times.the data employed in this study were primary and secondary. primary data were collected by conducting questionnaire-based interviews with respondents. respondents in this study were farm households whose land was converted to kertajati international airport in sukamulya village, kertajati district, majalengka regency. therefore, landless farmers were excluded from the population. using the slovin formula, the sample consisting of 76 farm households out of 319 farm households were randomly selected. primary data were collected in march 2019. secondary data were obtained from various research results, reports, and documents from bps, the agriculture office, the agricultural and forestry extension agency (bp4k), bappeda (development planning agency at subnational level), and related government agencies. farm household income consisted of farm income and non-farm income. net farm income was obtained by reducing total farm revenue by the total cost of the farm. this study's statistical test was paired sample t-test to compare farm household income before and after the airport construction. according to ghozali (2013), a difference test is used to determine whether two unrelated samples have a significantly different mean value. to find out whether farmers in sukamulya village, kertajati subdistrict have been prosperous, the fulfillment of the decent living needs (khl) of majalengka in 2018 of idr 1,653,514,54 was utilized to compare the income level per capita of monthly farm household members. per capita income was calculated by dividing household income by household size. household income in this study consisted of profit from farming and offfarm income. result and discussion this section is divided into three parts: comparison of on-farm income per harvest season, overall monthly household income consisting of on-farm and off-farm income, and the farm households’ prosperity level before and after the airport construction. by incorporating on-farm and off-farm income, the changes in income level and income sources would be revealed. land is the most critical factor of farmers' production because it is closely associated with farmers' income levels. table 1 presents land ownership before and after the airport construction. matufany, istiqomah, kadarwati, & purnomo the impact of airport construction on farm households’ income jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 5 table 1 farmers' land ownership before and after the kertajati international airport construction no land ownership (ha) before after number (people) percentage (%) number (people) percentage (%) 1 < 0.5 35 46 47 62 2 0.51 – 0.99 13 17 22 29 3 > 1 28 37 7 9 total 76 100 76 100 source: data processed. table 1 shows that the number of respondents who owned land < 0.5 hectares after the kertajati international airport construction increased. respondents who owned an area of > 1 hectare after the airport construction decreased dramatically from 28 to seven farmers. overall, the data revealed that after acquiring agricultural land for the airport construction, the land area owned by farmers was getting smaller. basuki (2012) argued that land conversion has led to decrease in agricultural productivity. it supports the finding of nguyen, pham, and lobry de bruyn (2017) that the most significant impact of binh dien hydroelectric dam construction on the huu trach river in vietnam was that land for growing rice and other crops was reduced or flood. table 2 average farm income per harvest season before and after the kertajati international airport construction (rupiah/4 months) elements of income before after average production (kg) 3,482 2,141 average price (rp/kg) 3,874 3,882 total revenue (rp) 13,489,268 8,311,362 total costs (rp) 5,881,553 3,923,789 farm income *** 7,607,715 4,387,573 t-statistic > t-table (3.994 > 1.66571) *** significant at α = 1% source: data processed. table 2 displays that the average farm income before the kertajati international airport construction was idr 7,607,715.00. the income was 42.3 percent higher than the average farm income after the airport construction of idr 4,387,573. it was due to the reduction in land ownership. farm income was significantly lower after the airport construction. this finding supports hidayat et al. (2017), who found the loss of agricultural work opportunities (idr 12,205,397/ha/year), loss of rice production (idr 59,175,911/ha/year), reduced income of rice farming (idr 37,999,535/ha/year), and reduction in total farm household income (idr 3,999,223/year). these findings also reinforce bao and peng (2016) that land conversion negatively impacted agricultural land. thus, the large-scale land acquisition must be suppressed because of its potential long-term adverse effects (borras et al., 2012). further, syahyuti (2018) mentioned that land-use change impacted food security and farmers' welfare. this matufany, istiqomah, kadarwati, & purnomo the impact of airport construction on farm households’ income jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 6 also supports damayanti and khoirudin (2016) who found positive assosiation between household income and food security. sugeng (2012) finding explained that the conversion of paddy land to non-agricultural uses, such as housing, industrial zones, trade areas, and public facilities, could have negative economic, social, and environmental impacts. for national food security, the conversion of paddy fields is a serious threat, considering that land conversion is difficult to avoid, while the impacts on food problems are permanent, cumulative, and progressive. many regulations have been issued by the government to control paddy fields' conversion, but the juridical approach seems dull due to various factors. in this regard, it is necessary to revitalize policies in controlling land conversion by developing economic and social approaches. according to kusikula et al. (2011), on the one hand, the land-use change would have an impact on increasing the quality of urban settlements, but on the other hand, it had a negative impact on increasing the number of poor people because agricultural land was turned into urban settlements, and farmers did not have new jobs. ty, van westen, and zoomers (2013) based their study on the effect of hydropower development on local livelihoods found a significant income loss and declining food security. furthermore, the resettled farmers complained about not being able to cultivate subsistence crops because their compensation land was too small with poor soil quality. declining food security and loss of income from cotton farming were also reported by thondhlana (2015) in zimbabwe due to biofuel development. nguyen et al. (2016) indicated unequal benefits among the stakeholders, with farmers tended to benefit the least. although they could transform their farm into a non-farm income, they faced difficulties finding stable alternative livelihood activities and using the compensation for investment. according to kamilah (2013), and ruswandi, rustiadi, and mudikdjo (2016), the conversion of agricultural land had a big impact on farmers' household income. the food crop sector, especially rice farming, is an economic activity that provides employment to rural communities. therefore, the conversion of land functions not only caused loss of employment but also decreased farmers’ income. for farmers, the land is a productive asset as a source of family income. the proportion of land ownership that continues to decline has resulted in a decrease in farming scale. the reduced land ownership tended to decrease farm income, which in turn decreased the welfare level of farmers and their families (dewi & achmar, 2016). chinsinga, chasukwa, and zuka (2013), mulyo, sugiyarto, and widada (2015), and nurpita et al. (2018) explained that at the macro level, the impacts of land-use change are reduced food availability and results in reduced national food security. on a micro level, land conversion has resulted in farmers, who initially planted food crops and could meet their own rice needs for their households, no longer producing rice and had to buy it. another impact of land conversion is the loss of livelihoods as farmers. based on their study in ghana, ablo and asamoah (2018) uncovered that the farmers felt deprived and perceived the compensation as inadequate for their loss of livelihoods and generational matufany, istiqomah, kadarwati, & purnomo the impact of airport construction on farm households’ income jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 7 inheritance. with the loss of livelihood as a farmer, the decline in income and purchasing power impacted the decreasing economic accessibility of farm households to food (purbiyanti et al., 2019). marfurt, käser, and lustenberger (2016) concluded that the loss of natural resources associated with land acquisition and the lack of employment opportunities primarily affected vulnerable groups. large-scale land acquisition for multinational companies in the pru east ghana had a significant positive moderate effect on employment, healthcare, and food security but had a significant negative effect on farm households' income levels. therefore, it is recommended that large-scale land investors employ people from the projects' host communities (quansah et al., 2020). farm households' income consists of profit from farming and other income from household members and off-farm income. the profit from farming is the sales revenue minus production cost. the comparison of farm household income before and after the construction of kertajati international airport is presented in the following table. table 3 average farm household income before and after the kertajati international airport construction (rupiah/month) components of household income before after change (%) on-farm income 1,901,928.75 1,396,893.25 (45.1) off-farm income 517,763.16 1,175,000.00 126.9 farm household income 2,419,691.91 2,571,893.25 8.9 source: data processed. table 3 exhibits that the average farm income per month after the kertajati international airport construction was lower, while the average off-farm income was higher. decreased farm income encouraged family members to help earn a living. it was evidenced by the increase in working family members by 86 percent. it confirms the finding of ju et al. (2016) that land acquisition in china increased the non-farm labor allocation. on average, the increase in off-farm income increased farm household income by 8.9 percent. with the t-statistic < t-table (0.499 <1.66571) and the probability of error (0.619> 0.05), it could be inferred that h0 was accepted. it signified that there was no significant difference in farm households' income before and after the airport construction. besides, welfare is one of the crucial indicators in the livelihoods of farm households. welfare can be measured using the decent living standard (khl) based on income. the khl in majalengka regency was rp1,653,514.54 per capita per month. table 4 welfare of farm households before and after the kertajati international airport construction comparison total farm household income (rp) (1) number of household size (persons) (2) income per capita (rp/month) (3) =(1) : (2) the ratio of income and decent living standard before 170,202,250 183 930,066.94 0.56 after 172,921,250 183 944,924.86 0.57 source: data processed. matufany, istiqomah, kadarwati, & purnomo the impact of airport construction on farm households’ income jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 8 table 4 depicts an increase in the per capita income ratio to khl after the kertajati international airport construction. the average value of the ratio of income per capita to khl was < 1. it indicated that after the airport construction, household income was still below the khl of majalengka regency of rp1,653,514.54 per capita per month. nevertheless, from a different perspective, farmers in west java were prosperous in general because farmers’ term of trade in december 2019 was 112.36 (2012=100). conclusion this study’s results have contributed to the existing literature by enriching the discussion on bijb construction's effect on the affected farm household income done by hidayat et al. (2017) by incorporating on-farm and non-farm income. the acquisition of agricultural land due to the kertajati international airport construction reduced the sukamulya village farmers' agricultural land. the results showed that the ownership of agricultural land after the airport construction was getting smaller. therefore, production was getting smaller, so was the farmers’ income. even though farmers received compensation from land acquisition, the price of land had increased so that the compensation received could not be used to buy the same size of land. the results revealed a significant decline in farm household farm income before and after the airport construction. however, the decline in farm income was compensated by an increase in non-farm income, such as petty trading and being employees at the airport and its tenants, so that the farm households’ total income before and after the airport construction was relatively the same. on average, farm households before and after the airport construction were at the same welfare level because the income per capita was still below the khl of majalengka regency even though there was a slight increase in household income ratio to khl. the results imply the need to increase farmers' capacity to minimize the negative impacts on farm households by providing alternative employment opportunities through integrated model training, ranging from planning, implementation, evaluation, provision, and mentoring of venture capital. besides, there is a need for counseling and assistance to the affected farm households by facilitating the compensation’s wise utilization. qian (2015) revealed that despite gradual improvement in land acquisition compensation, land-lost villagers bore uncertainties to sustain their livelihood, competed in the labor market, and adapted to urban life. nguyen, hegedűs, and nguyen (2019) based their study on industrial park projects, indicating that despite household livelihoods reconstruction after land acquisition, many issues have emerged, including a high proportion of households without sufficient employment and those that spent compensation fund in unproductive ways. this study confirms nguyen et al. 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the risk of flood disaster and the factors that affect the wtp. the subject of this research are farmers in the basin of the river bengawan solo river in klaten, sukoharjo, karanganyar and sragen. the result showed that variable income, age, education and the number of members of the family has influence significantly to a willingness to pay, perform the act of mitigating flood, and the average willingness to pay farmers/ respondents only between rp.250.000-rp.500.000 for flood mitigation. respondents/ farmers in the bengawan solo river basin if having flooded, they suffered losses farming production, an average of 50% of the normal production. keywords: flood mitigation, contingent valuation, willingness to pay, loss of production abstrak: tujuan penelitian ini adalah mengidentifikasi, melakukan pemetaan daerah rawan banjir di eks karesidenan surakarta, serta melakukan analisis mitigasi bencana banjir. alat analisis yang digunakan adalah sistem informasi geografi dan contingent valuation methods, dengan menghitung besarnya willingness to pay (wtp) untuk mengurangi risiko bencana banjir dan faktor-faktor yang berpengaruh terhadap wtp. subjek penelitian ini adalah petani di daerah aliran sungai bengawan solo di wilayah kabupaten klaten, sukoharjo, karanganyar dan sragen. hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa variabel pendapatan, usia, pendidikan dan jumlah anggota keluarga mempunyai pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap kesediaan untuk membayar, melakukan tindakan mitigasi bencana banjir, dan angka kesediaan untuk membayar (wtp) rata-rata petani/ responden hanya antara rp.250.000-rp.500.000 untuk mitigasi banjir. responden/ petani di daerah aliran sungai bengawan solo jika mengalami kebanjiran, mereka mengalami kerugian produksi usaha taninya, rata-rata 50% dari hasil produksi normal. kata kunci: mitigasi banjir, contingent valuation, willingness to pay, kerugian produksi pendahuluan pertanian merupakan salah satu sektor yang sangat rentan dengan berbagai resiko. pertanian selalu berhubungan dengan perubahan iklim, cuaca, ketergantungan lingkungan sekitar, dan menjadi salah satu bentuk aktivitas produksi manusia. pertanian juga merupakan suatu bentuk investasi jangka panjang dari petani untuk mendapatkan keuntungan besar dari produk pertanian yang dihasilkan. faktor utama penentu keberhasilan dalam sektor pertanian adalah kondisi alam.kondisi alam baru-baru ini semakin fluktuatif dan sulit diperkirakan, hal ini bisa terjadi karena adanya perubahan pola curah hujan dan iklim yang ekstrim di beberapa wilayah.curah hujan yang berlebih dapat mengakibatkan bencana banjir. banjir merupakan tantangan alam yang sering dihadapi petani di musim penghujan. daerah yang memiliki curah hujan tinggi dan berpo kesediaan membayar mitigasi banjir (rusminah dan evi gravitiani) 13 tensi terjadi bencana banjir adalah daerahdaerah di sepanjang das (daerah aliran sungai), contohnya beberapa wilayah di provinsi jawa tengah yang terletak antara 5o40'8o30' ls dan antara 108o30'-111o30' bt yang termasuk dalam kawasan das bengawan solo. bengawan solo salah satu das yang sering terlanda banjir, curah hujan yang tinggi menyebabkan sungai tidak mampu menampung aliran permukaan (runoff), sehingga terjadi banjir luapan. pada tahun 2004 terdapat 760.771,3 hektar lahan kritis di jawa tengah, surakarta menempati urutan kedua di das bengawan solo (194.086,34 hektar) utamanya di wilayah kabupaten wonogiri (84.068,57 hektar). wilayah rawan banjir sungai bengawan solo di eks karisidenan surakarta adalah: wonogiri, sukoharjo, karanganyar, klaten, surakarta, dan sragen. kejadian banjir itu sangat merugikan warga, mulai dari kerugian material maupun nonmaterial. kerugian-kerugian yang ditimbulkan dari kerusakan fasilitas umum antara lain: rusaknya prasarana pengairan (bendungan, irigasi, tanggul), rusaknya prasarana transportasi umum, rusaknya pemukiman dan pertanian (rumah tinggal, sawah, tambak, dan seterusnya), kegagalan panen, gangguan kesehatan, timbulnya korban jiwa, pengungsian penduduk, terganggunya pelaksanaan pendidikan, dan pelayanan umum yang lainnya. penduduk di wilayah das bengawan solo sebagian besar bermata pencaharian di bidang pertanian sehingga bencana banjir mempunyai dampak besar terhadap perekonomian keluarga petani terkait penurunan produksi pertanian. petani juga mengalami kesulitan untuk membiayai masa tanam berikutnya, dalam keadaan tersebut dibutuhkan tindakan mitigasi yang efektif untuk mengelola potensi resiko terutama apabila perubahan tersebut menimbulkan guncangan terhadap seluruh sektor pembangunan, yang dimaksud mitigasi yaitu serangkaian upaya untuk mengurangi risiko bencana, baik melalui pembangunan fisik maupun penyadaran dan peningkatan kemampuan menghadapi ancaman bencana. kerugian yang diakibatkan bencana banjir sangat besar maka penanggulangan bencana banjir diharapkan dapat dilakukan oleh anggota masyarakat secara terorganisir baik sebelum, saat, dan sesudah bencana dengan menggunakan sumber daya yang mereka miliki semaksimal mungkin. kapasitas penanggulangan bencana lebih efektif dilakukan di tingkat komunitas, karena komunitas merupakan pihak yang pertama-tama berhadapan dengan resiko bencana (rencana nasional penanggulangan bencana 2010-2014). banjir luapan das bengawan solo sudah seperti rutinitas tahunan yang tinggal menunggu kedatangannya tanpa ada upaya-upaya menanggulanginya, sementara setiap tahunnya jumlah kerugian/korban banjir di sepanjang daerah aliran sungai (das) bengawan solo semakin bertambah, dengan kenyataan tersebut maka tidak dapat dipungkiri bahwa banjir adalah salah satu jenis bencana yang periodik dan merugikan sehingga perlu adanya perhitungan kerugian pascabanjir khususnya kerugian di bidang pertanian dengan harapan kesadaran masyarakat untuk mitigasi banjir meningkat. mitigasi banjir masyarakat sangat penting untuk dilakukan untuk mengurangi risiko bencana banjir bagi masyarakat yang berada pada kawasan rawan bencana banjir di das bengawan solo. risiko banjir menurut uu no. 24 tahun 2007 adalah potensi kerugian yang ditimbulkan akibat bencana banjir pada suatu wilayah dan kurun waktu tertentu yang dapat berupa kematian, luka, sakit, jiwa terancam, hilangnya rasa aman, mengungsi, kerusakan atau kehilangan harta, dan gangguan kegiatan masyarakat. salah satu risiko banjir adalah risiko pertanian yang merupakan suatu unsur yang terdiri dari ketidaksiapan (namun dapat dikelola/di manage) terhadap segi produksi dan marketing dalam sektor pertanian. penyebab risiko yang paling sering muncul di sektor pertanian adalah faktor iklim, faktor sanitari, faktor geografi, faktor market, dan faktor luar negeri. pendekatan praktis mengatasi risiko di sektor pertanian, baik secara individual maupun berkelompok yaitu menyimpan sebagian hasil panen padi dalam lumbung, menanam umbi-umbian di pekarangan atau ladang, dan memelihara ternak adalah cara-cara praktis yang lazim ditempuh untuk mengatasi risiko jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 13, nomor 1, april 2012: 13-23 14 usaha tani. hal seperti ini bukan hanya terjadi di indonesia, tetapi juga di negara lain seperti india, tanzania, dan el salvador. petani menerapkan strategi yang berbeda-beda dalam menghadapi risiko, yang merupakan satu atau kombinasi dari beberapa strategi berikut: (1) strategi produksi, mencakup diversifikasi atau memilih usaha tani yang pembiayaan dan atau pengelolaan produksinya fleksibel. petani indonesia umumnya menerapkan strategi diversifikasi usaha tani. (2) strategi pemasaran, misalnya menjual hasil panen secara berangsur, memanfaatkan sistem kontrak untuk penjualan produk yang akan dihasilkan, dan melakukan perjanjian harga antara petani dan pembeli untuk hasil panen yang akan datang. upaya yang banyak dilakukan petani indonesia adalah dengan cara menjual hasil panen secara berangsur. (3) strategi finansial, mencakup melakukan pencadangan dana yang cukup, melakukan investasi pada kegiatan berdaya hasil tinggi, dan membuat proyeksi arus tunai berdasarkan perkiraan biaya produksi, harga jual produk, dan produksi. (4) pemanfaatan kredit informal, seperti meminjam uang atau barang kebutuhan pokok dari pedagang atau pemilik modal perorangan. strategi ini banyak diterapkan petani kecil di indonesia. (5) menjadi peserta asuransi pertanian untuk menutup kerugian yang diperkirakan akan terjadi.strategi ini banyak ditempuh oleh petani di negara maju dan sebagian petani di negara berkembang. di indonesia, asuransi pertanian formal belum berkembang. meskipun beberapa strategi tersebut telah diterapkan oleh sebagian petani, mereka masih sulit mengatasi risiko berusaha tani. manajemen risiko banjir perlu diterapkan dan dikembangkan dan merupakan langkah preventif dari ancaman bahaya banjir. partisipasi aktif masyarakat diperlukan dalam pengelolaan lingkungan hidup. hal ini sesuai dengan peraturan telah ditetapkan pemerintah. apabila setiap masyarakat menjalankan secara objektif dan tidak hanya mengutamakan kepentingan dirinya atau kelompoknya saja, maka kerugian yang akan timbul tidak akan berarti dibandingkan manfaatnya (suratmo dalam harjono, 2012). pengurangan resiko bencana (prb) secara umum dipahami sebagai pengembangan dan penerapan secara luas dari kebijakan-kebijakan, strategi-strategi dan praktik-praktik guna untuk meminimalkan kerentanan dan risiko bencana di masyarakat. prb bertujuan untuk mengurangi kerentanan-kerentanan sosial-ekonomi terhadap bencana dan menangani bahayabahaya lingkungan maupun bahaya-bahaya lain yang menimbulkan kerentanan. mitigasi menurut uu no. 24 2007 tentang penanggulangan bencana banjir adalah serangkaian upaya untuk mengurangi risiko bencana banjir, baik melalui pembangunan fisik maupun penyadaran dan peningkatan kemampuan menghadapi ancaman bencana. metode penelitian ruang lingkup penelitian penelitian ini menggunakan metode survei dengan petani yang menggarap lahan pertanian yang berada dalam wilayah rawan bencana banjir di das bengawan solo. wilayah studi penelitian ini adalah 9 kecamatan di wilayah esk karesidenan surakarta, yaitu kecamatan kebakkramat, cawas, bayat, gantiwarno, juwiring, tawangsari, mojolaban, masaran dan sidoharjo. obyek penelitian ini berada di 21 desa/kelurahan. jenis dan sumber data metode yang digunakan untuk memperoleh data primer adalah metode survei dengan teknik wawancara langsung (direct interview) dengan dibantu daftar pertanyaan (kuesioner). data sekunder diperoleh dari instansi dan lembaga-lembaga terkait di wilayah banjir di eks karisidenan surakarta. instansi-instansi tersebut antara lain: badan pusat statistik (bps), balai besar wilayah sungai bengawan solo (bbws), badan meteorologi dan geofisika, badan perencana pembangunan daerah (bappeda), dinas pekerjaan umum (dpu), bakornas, dan bakosurtanal. populasi dan sampel populasi dalam penelitian ini adalah petani kesediaan membayar mitigasi banjir (rusminah dan evi gravitiani) 15 yang lahan pertaniannya termasuk rawan banjir di kabupaten sukoharjo, sragen, karanganyar, dan klaten. alasan mengambil wilayah penelitian di 4 kabupaten di atas karena wilayah-wilayah itu setiap terjadi banjir dari sungai bengawan solo selalu dalam urutan paling atas yang mengalami kerugian paling besar di bidang pertanian, dan wilayah-wilayah tersebut masyarakatnya cenderung tindakan mitigasinya masih kurang. penetapan jumlah sampel penelitian dilakukan dengan cara menggunakan rumus slovin (sevilla, 1993) sebagai berikut: (1) dimana: n adalah jumlah sampel yang digunakan, n adalah jumlah populasi, 1 adalah konstanta, e adalah nilai kritis atau batas kesalahan 10% (2) , (3) desain penelitian metode contingent valuation ini penerapannya dengan menggunakan teknik survey sehingga disebut metode survei contingent valuation, dilakukan dengan memberikan daftar kuisioner atau daftar pertanyaan kepada responden tersampling. pengisian kuisioner yang dirancang harus diisi oleh kepala rumah tangga, mengingat variabel pendapatan keluarga dan juga keputusan jumlah biaya maksimum yang ingin dibayar (wtp) merupakan variabel yang sangat diperlukan validitasnya. namun dengan demikian dimungkinkan untuk beberapa kasus responden yang bukan kepala keluarga dapat mengisi kuisioner dengan catatan telah mendapat persetujuan dari kepala keluarga. hasil dan pembahasan pemetaan wilayah rawan banjir wilayah rawan banjir yang menjadi daerah studi penelitian ini adalah 4 kabupaten, 9 kecamatan dan 21 desa/kelurahan. tingkat kerawanan banjir berbeda di wilayah penelitian, disajikan pada gambar 1 dalam lampiran. desa-desa yang tingkat kerawanan banjir tinggi adalah desa yang dilintasi oleh sungai besar, yaitu sungai bengawan solo, apabila sungai bengawan solo banjir dan meluap maka desa-desa yang dikategorikan tingkat kerawanannya tinggi akan terendam banjir dan kalau dilihat dari bentuk desa-desa yang berkategori tingkat kerawanan banjir tinggi memang desadesa itu berpotensi terhadap bencana banjir, bentuk desa yang berkelok-kelok dengan dilalui sungai bengawan solo yang bentuknya mengikuti bentuk desa, desa tersebut sangat rawan terkena banjir sedangkan untuk desadesa yang tingkat kerawanannya sedang, desa tersebut jaraknya tidak berdekatan dengan sungai bengawan solo. tabel 1 menunjukkan tingkat kerawanan banjir di wilayah studi. tabel 1. tingkat kerawanan banjir tingkat kerawanan desa/kelurahan tinggi tenggak, bentak, taraman, sidoharjo, sribit, pandak, jetak, laban, gadingan, tegal made, waru, kateguhan, jetis, gondangsari sedang tangkisan, baran, tirtomarto, kragilan, burikan, karangmalang sumber: analisis data primer dan data sekunder tahun 2012 sejarah banjir sungai bengawan solo bengawan solo merupakan sungai terbesar dan terpanjang di pulau jawa, terletak di wilayah jawa tengah dan jawa timur, dengan panjang ± 600 km, dan luas daerah aliran ± 16.100 km2. berdasarkan wilayah administrasinya aliaran air bengawan solo melalui 17 kabupaten dan 3 kota jawa tengah dan jawa timur. secara fisik, alur utama sungai bengawan solo berawal dari sungai-sungai yang ada di kabupaten wonogiri yang mengalir ke waduk gajah mungkur, dari waduk gajah mungkur inilah arus sungai bengawan solo menjadi semacam satu-satunya pengendali arus aliran sungai bengawan solo. apabila kondisi waduk berfungsi secara optimal maka banjir di aliran sungai bengawan jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 13, nomor 1, april 2012: 13-23 16 solo dapat dikendalikan dengan baik. hal itu terbukti sejak waduk gajah mungkur difungsikan (1978) sudah tidak terjadi banjir besar seperti yang terjadi pada tahun 1965. banjir besar kembali melanda di kawasan aliran sungai bengawan solo yang terjadi pada akhir tahun 2007 sampai tahun 2012, dikarenakan fungsi waduk gajah mungkur yang sudah tidak lagi optimal. ketidak-optimalan fungsi waduk itu disebabkan oleh beberapa faktor, yaitu sedimentasi dan kerusakan bangunan tanggul waduk. sedimentasi yang terjadi di waduk dewasa ini lebih dari 3 juta meter kubik setiap tahun. dengan terjadinya sedimentasi yang begitu cepat sehingga fungsi waduk sebagai penampung air menjadi berkurang secara signifikan. faktor yang kedua adalah karena kerusakan bangunan tanggul yang berwujud retakan-retakan. kejadian tersebut dapat dilihat dari gambar 2. kejadian banjir sungai bengawan solo pemahaman masyarakat terhadap daerah mereka yang rawan banjir sebenarnya sudah cukup baik, masyarakat di das bengawan solo di wilayah penelitian telah memahami tandatanda akan terjadinya banjir, berikut penuturan informan pak sastro wiryono warga dusun ketonggo, masaran. “tanda-tanda jika akan terjadi banjir biasanya ditandai dengan turunnya hujan deras cukup lama yang merata dari atas (daerah hulu sungai) sampai daerah sini sehingga air sungai bengawan solo semakin banyak dan airnya terlihat hitam gelap, banyak sampah-sampah yang terbawa arus sungai serta ada bau yang menyengat.tanda-tanda ini maka dapat dipastikan akan terjadi banjir”. kejadian banjir yang terjadi pada tahun 2007-2012 cukup meresahkan penduduk di sekitar das bengawan solo, akibat banjir rumah-rumah mereka dan sawahnya terendam air sehingga mengakibatkan aktivitas penduduk lumpuh total terutama banjir yang terjadi akhir tahun 2007, walau banjirnya hanya satu hari satu malam namun sempat membuat penduduk tidak bisa keluar rumah dan bertahan di dalam rumah menunggu air surut. penduduk di daerah das bengawan solo mayoritas bermatapencaharian sebagai petani jadi jika terjadi banjir besar kerugian yang paling besar adalah di bidang pertanian.terjadi gagal panen karena padi yang belum siap panen terendam air dan membusuk. para petani merasa rugi karena tidak ada harapan atau penghasilan dari hasil pertaniannya, semua tanaman di sawah tidak dapat diharapkan karena rusak akibat banjir.sawah baru bisa ditanami setelah air sungai normal kembali dan tidak ada limbah industri. butuh beberapa waktu yang cukup lama sampai bulanan untuk kembali mengerjakan sawahnya dan ditanami kembali. dampak banjir membuat sumber: data primer diolah, 2012 gambar 2. sejarah banjir 4 kabupaten lokasi penelitian banjir besar das  bengawan solo  th 1965  membuat waduk  gajah mungkur  sebagai penampung air  th 1978  sedimentasi, kerusakan  bangunan tanggul dan  perubahan struktur  sungai  fungsi waduk gajah  mungkur tidak optimal  banjir besar das  bengawan solo 2007‐ 2012  banjir kecil das  bengawan solo  kesediaan membayar mitigasi banjir (rusminah dan evi gravitiani) 17 petani terganggu perekonomiannya. hal ini dibenarkan oleh seorang petani dari dusun sribit, sidoharjo (pak supriyadi) yang mengatakan bahwa: “jika terjadi banjir dan sawah saya itu hanya terendam air banjir satu hari satu malam tanaman masih bisa diselamatkan walaupun nanti hasilnya cuman dapat 50 persen dari hasil normal tetapi kalau banjir merendam sawah lebih dari dua hari berarti saya gagal panen karena tanaman mati akibat genangan air hujan dan air limbah yang mengalir ke sawah. saya tidak bisa berbuat apa-apa, hanya bisa menunggu masa tanam berikutnya dan harus mengolah tanah sedemikian rupa hingga punya kemampuan untuk ditanami lagi”. data balai besar wilayah sungai bengawan solo menjelaskan bahwa upaya pengendalian banjir harus dengan keterpaduan antara upaya fisik teknis dan non-teknis seperti perilaku manusia dalam mengubah fungsi lingkungan, perubahan tata ruang secara massive di kawasan budidaya yang menyebabkan daya dukung lingkungan menurun drastis, serta pesatnya pertumbuhan permukiman dan industri yang mengubah keseimbangan fungsi lingkungan sehingga menyebabkan kawasan retensi banjir (retarding basin) berkurang. analisis mitigasi bencana banjir analisis ini digunakan untuk mengetahui seberapa besar variabel independen dalam hal ini pendapatan, pendidikan, usia, jumlah anggota keluarga, jarak dan tinggi genangan mempengaruhi kesediaan untuk membayar mitigasi bencana sebagai variabel dependen. model yang akan diestimasi ditunjukkan oleh persamaan berikut ini: wtp = + (4) dimana: wtp adalah kesediaan untuk membayar mitigasi banjir, inc adalah pendapatan yang diterima responden tiap bulan, age adalah usia responden, educ adalah pendidikan terakhir responden, fam adalah jumlah anggota keluarga yang dimiliki responden, pers adalah persepsi dampak kerusakan, dist adalah jarak pemukiman dengan sungai bengawan solo, high adalah tinggi genangan banjir di daerah responden, inten adalah intensitas terjadinya banjir, adalahkonstanta, adalah koefisien regresi, adalah standard error. hasil regresi menunjukkan pengaruh pendapatan, usia, pendidikan, jumlah anggota keluarga, persepsi dampak kerusakan, jarak, tinggi genangan dan intensitas banjir terhadap kesediaan untuk membayar mitigasi banjir. (tabel 1) analisis kesediaan membayar (willingness to pay) mitigasi banjir jumlah maksimum yang mau dibayarkan oleh responden setelah diberikan rentetan tawaran pertanyaan untuk mengurangi dampak banjir disajikan pada tabel 2. persentase wtp yang tabel 1. hasil analisis regresi berganda dengan ordinary least square (ols) nama variabel koefisien t hitung konstanta inc age educ fam pers dist high inten -2487174 0,843608*** 60113,93*** 360970,9** -209753,4** 270810,8 -54,27952 -4627,388 -243795,2 -1,974387 10,56629 3,317654 2,015231 -1,973552 1,096389 -0,221080 -1,366068 -1,482630 0,587551 0,564150 1,896693 f-statistic prob(f-statistic) 25,10755 0,000000 0 keterangan: *** : signifikan pada level 1%, **: signifikan pada level 5% jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 13, nomor 1, april 2012: 13-23 18 paling banyak rp250.000 sampai dengan kurang dari 500.000,per banjir 28% sebanyak 43 orang. sisanya kurang dari 1.000.000,per banjir sebanyak 36 orang, rp1.000.000,sampai dengan kurang dari rp1.250.0000,per banjir sebanyak 6 orang, rp1.250.000,sampai dengan kurang dari rp1.500.000,per banjir sebanyak 9 orang, rp1.500.000,sampai dengan kurang dari rp1.750.0000,per banjir sebanyak 1 orang, rp1.750.000,sampai dengan kurang dari rp2.000.000,per banjir sebanyak 7 orang, rp2.000.000,sampai dengan kurang dari rp2.500.000,per banjir sebanyak 1 orang, rp2.500.000,sampai dengan kurang dari rp2.500.000,per banjir sebanyak 3 orang dan lebih besar dari rp 2.500.000,sebanyak 26 orang. nilai wtp responden yang paling kecil adalah rp 30.000,sedangkan nilai wtp yang paling besar adalah rp 15.000.000,-. hasil tersebut menunjukkan bahwa rata-rata penduduk didaerah rawan banjir kesediaan untuk membayar (wtp) untuk mengurangi resiko gagal panen akibat banjir sangat kecil, bahkan nilai wtp lebih kecil dari jumlah kerugian yang akan di tanggung jika terjadi banjir. mereka hanya bersedia membayar wtp untuk biaya tanam berikutnya jika terancam gagal panen, hal ini karena adanya pengaruh faktor-faktor sosial ekonomi yang mempengaruhi. valuasi kerugian (loss production) banjir berdampak negatif terhadap petani. besar kerugian yang diakibatkan oleh bencana alam tersebut dapat diketahui dari perubahan (penurunan) produktifitas pertanian. bencana banjir dapat menyebabkan kegagalan panen total bagi petani seperti yang terjadi di daerah kulonprogo bagian selatan (saptutyningsih dan suryanto, 2009). kerugian sektor pertanian itu sendiri dapat dihitung menggunakan formula sebagai berikut (suparmoko, 2006): qx = f (a x pt) di mana,  adalah perubahan, qx adalah produksi pertanian, a adalah luas sawah yang tergenang, pt adalah produktifitas tanah per ha. langkah-langkah yang dilakukan untuk mengetahui tingkat kerugian per petani yaitu langkah pertama menghitung penurunan produksi sektor pertanian karena banjir, langkah selanjutnya adalah menghitung luas lahan pertanian masing-masing keluarga, dan langkah terakhir menghitung kerugian rata-rata yang diderita per petani. perhitungan dan analisis tiap langkah sebagai berikut: (1) penurunan produksi sektor pertanian karena banjir. penurunan produksi reponden per panen jika terjadi banjir disajikan pada tabel 3. prosentase penurunan produksi responden yang paling banyak rp1.500.000,sampai dengan kurang dari rp3.000.0000,per panen jika terjadi banjir 33 persen sebanyak 49 orang, sisanya kurang dari 1.500.000,per panen jika terjadi banjir sebanyak 31 orang, rp3.000.000, sampai dengan kurang dari rp4.500.0000,per panen jika terjadi banjir sebanyak 21 orang, rp4.500.000,sampai dengan kurang dari tabel 2 . besarnya wtp penduduk untuk mitigasi banjir no. jumlah wtp (rupiah) jumlah responden prosentase (%) 1. 0 250.000 18 12 2. 250.000 500.0000 43 28 3. 500.000 1.000.000 36 24 4. 1.000.000 1.250.000 6 4 5. 1.250.000 1.500.000 9 6 6. 1.500.000 1.750.000 1 1 7. 1.750.000 2.000.000 7 5 8. 2.000.000 2.250.000 1 1 9. 2.250.000 2.500.000 3 2 10. 2.500.000 15.000.000 26 17 jumlah 150 100 sumber: data primer diolah, 2012 kesediaan membayar mitigasi banjir (rusminah dan evi gravitiani) 19 rp6.000.0000,per panen jika terjadi banjir sebanyak 16 orang, rp6.000.000,sampai dengan kurang dari rp7.500.0000,per panen jika terjadi banjir sebanyak 5 orang, rp7.500.000,sampai dengan kurang dari rp9.000.0000,per panen jika terjadi banjir sebanyak 14 orang, rp9.000.000,sampai dengan kurang dari rp10.500.0000,per panen jika terjadi banjir sebanyak 3 orang dan lebih besar dari rp10.500.000,sebanyak 11 orang. hasil tersebut menunjukan bahwa rata-rata petani didaerah rawan banjir mengalami penurunan produksi yang sangat signifikan jika terjadi banjir di bandingkan dengan kondisi normal. besarnya penurunan produksi yang dialami yang paling tinggi adalah sebesar rp30.000.000,sedangkan penurunan produksi yang paling kecil sebesar rp 491.250,-. (2) kepemilikan lahan responden (a). luas lahan pertanian responden yang berada di daerah rawan banjir, dari 150 responden ratarata responden memiliki sawah antara 0,26-0,5 ha atau sebesar 36 persen sebanyak 54 orang dan di susul urutan kedua kepemilikan sawah responden antara 0,76-1,0 ha sebesar 20% atau 30 orang sedangkan yang paling sedikit mempunyai kepemilikan sawah > 2,0 ha sebesar 1 persen atau 1 orang tabel 4 menunjukkan luas kepemilikan sawah responden dan ternyata sangat variatif, dalam arti ada sebagian responden yang memiliki lahan sawah yang realtif luas tapi banyak responden yang lahan sawahnya kategori sempit. penduduk yang sawahnya sempit oleh masyarakat dinamakan petani gurem. kondisi kepemilikan lahan yang sangat terbatas ini tentunya sangat berpengaruh terhadap taraf hidup mereka, produksi pertaniannya biasanya hanya cukup untuk makan. petani gurem ini kalau terjadi banjir sangat merasakan kerugiannya, mengalami gagal panen sehingga pendapatan petani menurun drastis, jika kondisi seperti itu terjadi tiap tahun maka petani gurem banyak yang tidak mampu untuk melanjutkan usaha taninya, akibatnya mereka mengambil keputusan untuk menjual lahan sawah yang mereka miliki. (3) tingkat kerugian (loss production). tingkat kerugian (loss production) responden yang berada di daerah rawan banjir disajikan tabel 3. penurunan produksi responden penurunan produksi (rp) jumlah responden prosentase (%) 1. 0 -1.500.000 31 21 2. 1.500.000-3.000.0000 49 33 3. 3.000.000-4.500.000 21 14 4. 4.500.000-6.000.000 16 11 5. 6.000.000-7.500.000 5 3 6. 7.500.000-9.000.000 14 9 7. 9.000.000-10.500.000 3 2 8. 10.500.000-24.000.000 11 7 jumlah 150 100 sumber: data primer diolah, 2012 tabel 4. luas lahan sawah responden no. luas lahan (ha) jumlah responden prosentase (%) 1. < 0,25 35 23 2. 0,26 – 0,5 54 36 3. 0,51 –0,75 17 11 4. 0,76 – 1,0 30 20 5. 1,1 – 1,25 4 3 6 1,26 – 1,50 4 3 7 1,51 – 2,0 5 3 8 >2,0 1 1 jumlah 150 100 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 13, nomor 1, april 2012: 13-23 20 pada tabel 5. rata-rata responden mengalami kerugian hasil pertanian mereka yang paling besar antara 26-50 persen atau sebanyak 117 orang. sebanyak 26 orang menderita kerugian antara 51-75 persen, dan sebanyak 3 orang mengalami kerugian adalah antara 76-100 persen. simpulan hasil pengujian dan temuan empiris dari analisis data yang telah dilakukan, diperoleh kesimpulan dari penelitian tentang analisis kesediaan untuk membayar mitigasi bencana banjir di eks karisidenan surakarta ini adalah sebagai berikut: (1) daerah-daerah di pinggiran das bengawan solo yang telah dipetakan mayoritas memiliki tingkat kerawanan bencana banjir yang tinggi. (2) hasil analisis data dengan menggunakan model regresi linier berganda dengan pendekatan contingent valuation method (cvm) variabel pendapatan, usia, pendidikan, jumlah anggota keluarga, persepsi dampak kerusakan, jarak sawah, tinggi genangan dan intensitas banjir menjelaskan pengaruhnya terhadap willingness to pay atau kesediaan untuk membayar mitigasi bencana banjir. (3) hasil dari penelitian ini upaya untuk melakukan tindakan mitigasi banjir masyarakat cenderung pasrah akan keadaan yang terjadi, karena banyak faktor sosial ekonomi yang menyebabkan untuk tidak melakukan tindakan mitigasi di antaranya seperti himpitan ekonomi, lokasi lahan sawah, kondisi sosial ekonomi, jarak sawah ke sungai. kesadaran penduduk akan pentingnya mitigasi banjir sangat kecil, dari hasil penelitian rata-rata penduduk didaerah rawan banjir kesediaan untuk membayar (wtp) untuk mengurangi resiko gagal panen akibat banjir sangat kecil, bahkan nilai wtp lebih kecil dari jumlah kerugian yang akan ditanggung jika terjadi banjir. mereka hanya bersedia membayar wtp untuk biaya tanam berikutnya jika terancam gagal panen. (4) hasil penelitian rata-rata responden/ petani di das bengawan solo jika terjadi banjir mengalami kerugian (loss production) hasil pertanian 50 persen dari hasil produksi normal. berdasarkan kesimpulan yang telah dijelaskan di atas, maka penulis memberikan beberapa saran yang berkaitan dengan penelitian ini. adapun saran tersebut adalah sebagai berikut: (1) petani yang tinggal di daerah rawan banjir khususnya yang di bantaran sungai begawan solo harus meningkatkan kesadaran mitigasi banjir untuk mengurangi resiko gagal panen terhadap usaha tani mereka, dengan meningkatkan kemampuan adaptasi petani terhadap perubahan iklim, bisa dengan cara memajukan masa tanam usaha taninya sehingga jika terjadi banjir sudah selesai panen atau mengefektifkan kembali pendekatan konvensional melalui penerapan salah satu atau kombinasi strategi produksi, pemasaran, finansial, dan pemanfaatan kredit informal. petani yang punya lahan sawah luas bisa juga mengasuransikan usaha pertanian mereka sehingga jika terjadi banjir resiko yang dialami tidak besar. (2) agar tercapai system pengendalian banjir yang optimal untuk melakukan tindakan mitigasi bencana yang berkelanjutan, maka perlunya peran serta masyarakat dan pemerintah untuk mitigasi banjir.pengendalian banjir tidak bisa hanya difokuskan pada penanganan fisik saja, namun harus disinergikan juga dengan pembangunan non-fisik yang menyediakan ruang lebih luas bagi munculnya keterlibatan atau partisipasi masyarakat. tabel 5. tingkat kerugian (loss production) no. kerugian pascabanjir dari produksi normal (%) jumlah responden prosentase (%) 1. 0 25 4 3 2. 26 – 50 117 78 3. 51 – 75 26 17 4. 76 – 100 3 2 jumlah 150 100 (sumber: data primer diolah, 2012) kesediaan membayar mitigasi banjir (rusminah dan evi gravitiani) 21 (a) peran masyarakat khususnya yang berada di wilayah rawan bencana banjir seyogyanya harus paham akan hak, kewajiban dan peranya dalam mengelola lingkungan agar terjadi keselarasan, keserasian dan kesinambungan demi generasi penerusnya. terkait dengan hak masyarakat sebetulnya masyarakat di wilayah rawan bencana memiliki hak yang sama untuk menempati lingkungan yang baik dan sehat, namun realitanya mereka terkena banjir, ini berarti bahwa masyarakat untuk memperoleh lingkungan yang baik dan sehat tidak terpenuhi. (b) pemerintah harus meningkatkan perannya untuk mitigasi banjir seperti: 1) pemerintah perlu menyadarkan masyarakat untuk menjaga kualitas lingkungan, dengan aturan dan penataan serta penyuluhan penggunaan lahan, 2) aturan tentang pemanfaatan das harus disosialisasikan dan diberi pengawasan yang ketat dan sangsi yang berat, 3) pemerintah harus berupaya agar waduk gajah mungkur dapat kembali berfungsi secara optimal. daftar pustaka asdak, chary. 2002. hidrologi dan pengelolaan daerah aliran sungai. yogyakarta: gadjah mada university press. dai, f.c., dan c.f. lee, s.j. wang. 2003. characterization of rainfall-induced landslides. international journal of remote sensing. vol. 24 (23), pp. 4817-4834. gujarati, damodar n. 2005. basic econometrics. new york: mcgraw-hill hardoyo, dkk. 2011. strategi adaptasi masyarakat dalam menghadapi bencana banjir pasang air laut di kota pekalongan, red carpet studio. yogyakarta: fakultas geografi universitas gadjah mada. harjono, dwi. 2012. valuasi 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solo nusantara. cetakan kedua. jakarta: pt kompas media sugiyono. 2010. metode penelitian pendidikan pendekatan kuantitatif, kualitatif, dan r&d. bandung: alfabeta. sugiyono. 2011. metode penelitian kombinasi (mixed methods). bandung: alfabeta. suparmoko. 2006. panduan dan analisis valuasi ekonomi. yogyakarta: bpfe. taryati, dkk. 2012. pemahaman masyarakat terhadap daerah rawan ekologi di kabupaten sragen dan kabupaten bojonegoro. yogyakarta: balai pelestarian sejarah dan nilai tradisional. bps. 2012. klaten dalam angka. klaten: badan pusat statistik. bps. 2012. kecamatan kebakkramat dalam angka. karangaanyar: badan pusat statistik. bps. 2012. kecamatan masaran dalam angka. sragen: badan pusat statistik. bps. 2012. kecamatan sidoharjo dalam angka. sragen: badan pusat statistik. bps. 2011. kecamatan mojolaban dalam angka. jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 13, nomor 1, april 2012: 13-23 22 sukoharjo: badan pusat statistik. bps. 2011. kecamatan tawangsari dalam angka. sukoharjo: badan pusat statistik. khan, m. s. a. 2008. disaster preparedness for sustainable development in bangladesh. disaster prevention and management vol. 17 no. 5, 2008 pp. 662-67. kim, kiwhan. 2002. water quality measurement: w h at makes ‘willingness to pay’ different?. international review of public administration 2002, vol. 7, no. 2. kurniawan, rachman., dkk. 2009. valuasi ekonomi jasa lingkungan kawasan karst marcos-pangkep. jurnal ekonomi lingkungan vol.13/no.1/2009. siswoko. 2005. banjir, masalah banjir dan upaya mengatasinya. makalah pelantikan pengurus hathi cabang sulsel periode 20052008. makasar, 19 maret 2005. badan koordinasi nasional penanggulangan bencana. 2005. panduan pengenalan karakteristik bencana dan upaya mitigasinya di indonesia. bakornas pb. jakarta. badan perancanaan dan pembangunan daerah. 2008. potensi dan kejadian bencana provinsi jawa tengah. jawa tengah: bappeda. dinas kesbang linmas dan biro pembangunan daerah provinsi jawa tengah. 2007. kejadian banjir beserta dampaknya di provinsi jawatengah. semarang: kesbang limas dan bappeda. direktorat jenderal sumber daya air departemen pekerjaan umum. 2008. profil sungai bengawan solo. jakarta: dpu kementerian pekerjaan umum direktorat jenderal sumber daya air bbws bs. 2011. ancaman bahaya banjir dan upaya antisipasinya di wilayah sungai bengawan solo undang-undang republik indonesia. nomor 24 tahun 2007. tentang penanggulangan bencana. wood, n.j., dan j.w. good. 2004. vulnerability of ports and harbor communities to earthquake and tsunami hazards: the use of gis in community planning. coastal management, vol 32 (3). kesedi iaan membay sumber: dat yar mitigasi ta primer diolah g banjir (rusm h, 2012 gambar 1. pe minah dan ev lampira eta tingkat k vi gravitiani an kerawanan b i) banjir 23 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016, hlm. 168-192 doi: 10.18196/jesp.17.2.3983 kelembagaan urusan pangan dari masa ke masa dan kebijakan ketahanan pangan juli panglima saragih pusat penelitian badan keahlian dpr ri jalan jenderal gatot subroto senayan jakarta 10270 email korespondensi: julipsaragih@gmail.com naskah diterima: juli 2016; disetujui: oktober 2016 abstract: since independence of indonesia, authorities and functions of national agency for food affairs often changed until nowadays. this phenomenon can impact on acchieving national food safety. in presiden suharto era, agency for food affairs—namely bulog was successful in stabilizing food price although its statuta as non-profit institution. meanwhile, politic of foodstock supply in 1998 also more or less give impact on achieving it. both law number 7 year of 1996 and law number 12 year of 2012 do not clearly regulate about institution on food affairs. since bulog became a business company in 2003, bulog was failure in stabilizing some food prices, except rice. as qualitatif research, this study uses descriptive-analysis as tool to solve problem by analysing historical data relevant with the topic. this study explains that eventhough government has already set up bulog as single agency for food affairs, but food problems rise up due to multi-dimension problems and complexity of government policies. in this concern, it is needed policy coordination amongst different govt institutions to overcome the increase of food prices. problems of distribution and marketing also impact on achievement of food safety. keywords: food safety, national agency for food stock, food product, rice. jel classification: q11, 13, q18 abstrak: sejak kemerdekaan indonesia sampai saat ini tugas, kewenangan, dan organisasi kelembagaan urusan pangan selalu berubah-ubah. perubahan tersebut sedikit banyak berpengaruh terhadap upaya mewujudkan ketahanan pangan nasional. selama orde baru, lembaga pangan badan urusan logistik (bulog) relatif berhasil dalam menstabilkan harga pangan pokok walaupun bulog tidak berbentuk badan usaha. politik pengelolaan pangan juga mempengaruhi pencapaian ketahanan pangan seperti pada masa krisis ekonomi 1998. pentingnya lembaga pangan juga tidak secara tegas diatur dalam uu no.7 tahun 1996. sejak bulog menjadi badan usaha milik negara berbentuk perusahaan umum tahun 2003, bulog terus berupaya untuk menstabilkan harga pangan pokok, tetapi masih tidak mampu menurunkan dan menstabilkan harga pangan pokok di luar beras. studi ini merupakan penelitian kualitatif dengan metode deskriptif-analisis. data sekunder dari berbagai referensi yang relevan dikumpulkan dan dianalisa guna menjawab permasalahan. dari hasil analisis antara lain disimpulkan bahwa pemerintah memang sudah menetapkan lembaga urusan pangan seperti bulog, tetapi masih belum terkoodinasi antar-lembaga padahal urusan pangan bersifat lintas sektor. salah satu dampaknya adalah masih mahalnya harga sebagian besar komoditas pangan pokok di masyarakat. mata rantai tata niaga yang cukup panjang, juga menjadi penyebab tidak tercapainya ketahanan pangan nasional. kata kunci: ketahanan pangan, badan urusan logistik, komoditas pangan, beras. klasifikasi jel: q11, 13, q18 mailto:julipsaragih@gmail.com kelembagaan urusan pangan dari masa ke masa… (juli panglima saragih) 169 pendahuluan di tengah himpitan beban ekonomi yang semakin berat terutama sejak pemerintahan sby berkuasa 2004, sebagian besar masyarakat di indonesia masih merasakan mahalnya harga komoditas pangan pokok seperti beras, daging sapi, daging ayam ras, cabai merah, gula pasir, dan kedelai, yang sering terjadi menjelang harihari besar keagamaan. pada bulan ramadhan 2016, misalnya, hanya harga beras yang tidak mengalami lonjakan yang signifikan. namun anehnya harga sebagian besar pangan pokok seperti daging sapi paska ramadhan dan idul fitri 2016 belum juga turun sesuai dengan kebijakan presiden jokowi yaitu di bawah rp80.000 per kg. padahal kebijakan impor daging sapi sudah diberlakukan walaupun relatif terbatas. pertanyaannya adalah apakah mahalnya harga pangan pokok seperti daging sapi merupakan permainan mafia pangan atau memang supply yang sangat sedikit di pasar? gejolak atau permainan harga daging sapi di pasar tersebut telah berdampak pada diberhentikannya dirjen peternakan oleh menteri pertanian ri. pertanyaan kemudian adalah bagaimana mengatasi persoalan tersebut agar tidak berulang di kemudian hari? apakah perlu ada lembaga pemerintah yang seharusnya bertanggung jawab penuh dalam penyediaan pangan pokok seperti daging sapi, cabai merah, beras, atau bahan pangan pokok lainnya yang kenaikan harganya akan berdampak langsung pada kenaikan inflasi di indonesia? atau apakah persoalannya bukan pada aspek kelembagaan pangan semata? pertanyaan di atas mendasari penulisan ini untuk mengidentifikasi dan menganalisa permasalahan pangan dari aspek kelembagaan pangan sejak masa presiden sukarno sampai presiden jokowi dalam kaitan dengan kebijakan pemerintah mencapai ketahanan pangan nasional. pada masa pemerintahan orde baru relatif hampir tak terdengar tentang kelangkaan ataupun mahalnya harga sembilan bahan pokok. karena pada zaman orde baru, badan urusan logistik—selanjutnya disebut bulog merupakan satu-satunya lembaga pemerintah non-departemen (lpnd) yang ditugasi sebagai badan penyangga kebutuhan pokok termasuk beras. tugas pokoknya adalah menstabilisasi harga 7 (tujuh) bahan pokok, antara lain: beras, gula, daging sapi, daging ayam, terigu, telur ayam, dan kedelai. penugasan bulog tersebut tertuang dalam keppres ri nomor 50 tahun 1995. hasilnya terbukti efektivitas pengendalian harga produsen dan stabilitas harga di konsumen hingga 1998 sangat baik dan terjaga, sebelum krisis moneter terjadi mei 1998. masyarakat merasa tenang dengan stabilnya harga kebutuhan pokok di pasar. keberhasilan bulog di era orde baru tersebut juga tidak lepas dari tata kelola dan manajemen institusi bulog. pada masa orde baru bulog—walaupun secara garis koordinasi di bawah kementerian sekretariat negara, tetapi tugas dan tanggungjawabnya langsung kepada presiden. hal ini mendorong program swasembada beras sempat terwujud pada masa presiden suharto tahun 1980-an karena perhatian langsung dari presiden terhadap bulog. setelah krisis moneter 1998 berlalu, bagaimana peran bulog? mengapa bulog terkesan tidak mampu menguasai pasar sebagian besar komoditas pangan pokok saat ini? pertanyaan tersebut belum terjawab tuntas hingga saat ini. peran bulog diakui telah bergeser pada saat setelah terjadi krisis moneter tahun 1998. perubahan peran dan wewenang bulog sejalan dengan perubahan politik sebagian besar bumn yang merupakan implikasi politik dari kesepakatan perjanjian letter of intent (loi) antara pemerintah indonesia dengan international monetary fund (imf). di samping itu juga sebagai implikasi dari lahirnya uu no.19 tahun 2003 tentang bumn. artinya, bulog yang semula berperan sebagai badan penyangga pangan pokok dengan penitikberatan stabilisasi harga pangan, 170 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016: 168-192 berubah menjadi hampir semuanya bertujuan pada orientasi profit semata walaupun bulog sudah merupakan badan usaha milik negara berbentuk perusahaan umum (perum). padahal walaupun bumn berbentuk perusahaan umum tidak hanya mengejar keuntungan saja, tetapi juga sebagai agent of development dalam menyediakan barang publik yang dibutuhkan masyarakat banyak, seperti beras. unsur agen pembangunan dan agen perubahan sebagai ―intervensi‖ pemerintah secara langsung dalam menyeimbangkan dan menstabilkan harga pangan di pasar dalam kasus bulog, menjadi sirna atau hilang. peran bulog tak ubahnya dengan perusahaan lain yang penekanan utamanya pada botom line atau keuntungan yang menjadi indikator keberhasilan kinerja usaha. jika masyarakat pernah mengalami stabilitas harga dan tersedianya bahan pokok karena peran bulog pada masa orde baru, mengapa pemerintah tidak mengembalikan peran bulog seperti semula, yang tentu dengan penyempurnaan atau revitalisasi tugas dan fungsinya. penguatan peran dan fungsi bulog diprediksi akan mampu menjaga stabilitas harga pangan dan menjaga minat petani untuk tetap menanam padi dan berbagai komoditas pangan lain. indonesia perlu belajar dari thailand dalam pengelolaan beras. semua beras yang diproduksi petani di thailand dibeli pemerintah dengan harga yang memungkinkan petani meraih keuntungan, kemudian disalurkan kepada rakyat dengan harga yang terjangkau oleh daya beli masyarakat thailand. mengembalikan fungsi bulog sebagai penyangga berarti memberi keleluasaan untuk membeli seluruh hasil produksi pangan petani dan menyalurkannya ke daerah yang bukan sentra produksi beras seperti indonesia bagian timur dan daerah kepulauan lainnya. hal ini juga dapat diterapkan misalnya untuk komoditas lain. dengan demikian bulog diharapkan mampu memenuhi semua unsur, baik produsen maupun konsumen. bulog perlu menetapkan harga pembelian pemerintah (hpp) sebagai upaya memberi insentif kepada petani dalam meningkatkan produksi pangan, khususnya beras. adapun upaya untuk melindungi konsumen terutama yang berpenghasilan rendah dan masyarakat miskin, maka perlu ditetapkan harga maksimum beberapa komoditas pangan pokok seperti beras. pemerintah dinilai perlu memberi keleluasaan kepada bulog untuk membeli semua beras yang dihasilkan petani dengan beragam kualitas dan harga. untuk itu harus ada patokan dalam membeli gabah pada tingkat harga dan kualitas tertentu. hal ini disebut dengan harga pembelian pemerintah (hp). hasil pembelian beras oleh bulog dengan harga ditetapkan pemerintah, maka dapat digunakan pemerintah untuk berbagai keperluan khususnya untuk menyejahterakan rakyat dengan harga beras terjangkau. selain itu agar turbulensi harga pangan di pasar dunia tidak langsung berimbas pada harga pangan domestik, perlu diupayakan relasi harga terhadap pasar dunia dengan fluktuasi yang lebar. bulog juga seharusnya memiliki stok penyangga dalam jumlah yang cukup. karena tanpa stok penyangga dalam jumlah yang cukup, mustahil pemerintah dapat mengintervensi pasar untuk stabilisasi harga saat terjadi gejolak harga pangan di pasar. melalui stabilisasi harga pangan yang langsung di bawah presiden, bulog seharusnya mampu mengelola pangan dengan manajemen yang lebih modern dengan tetap memegang teguh prinsip tata kelola good governance. komisi pengawas persaingan usaha (kppu) menilai, peranan bulog dalam menjaga stabilitas harga beras masih sangat dibutuhkan. sayangnya, bulog saat ini dinilai tak memiliki kekuatan layaknya masa orde baru dulu. bulog sekarang tidak punya power untuk melakukan stabilisasi harga dan meningkatkan stok beberapa komoditas pangan pokok, karena bulog dituntut sebagai perusahaan (entitas kelembagaan urusan pangan dari masa ke masa… (juli panglima saragih) 171 bisnis), dan statusnya bukan sebagai lembaga penyangga pangan tetapi pelaku pasar biasa. persoalan ketahanan pangan merupakan masalah yang komprehensif yang mesti dilihat dari sisi multidimensi. salah satunya adalah masalah kelembagaan yang mengurusi pangan seperti bulog. kelembagaan pangan sudah dibentuk pemerintah sejak masa pemerintahan presiden soekarno sampai saat ini. tetapi persoalan pangan seperti lonjakan harga komoditas pangan pokok, belum juga berkurang dan belum terselesaikan. masih sulitnya upaya untuk menstabilkan harga pangan pokok di masyarakat, salah satu penyebabnya adalah masalah kelembagaan bulog yang di sisi hilir yang perlu direformasi, direvitalisasi, dan diberikan tugas dan kewenangan lebih untuk menjaga ketahanan pangan. bulog hanya mampu menjaga stabilitas harga beras dengan strategi peningkatan stok beras, tetapi belum mampu menstabilkan harga pangan pokok lainnya. metode penelitian penelitian ini merupakan peneltian kualitatif dengan metode deskriptif analisis. metode ini mencoba mengggambarkan dan mengidentifikasi permasalahan dalam tulisan ini serta menganalisisnya berdasarkan data dan informasi yang relevan terhadap topik tulisan. teknik analisis data adalah dengan menggunakan konsep atau kerangka berpikir sebagai alat analisa yakni konsep ketahanan pangan dalam kaitan status, tugas, wewenang kelembagaan urusan pangan selama ini. data yang dianalisis merupakan data sekunder melalui studi kepustakaan. sedangkan tujuan dari penelitian kualitatif ini antara lain adalah untuk mengkaji dan menjawab permasalahan ketahanan pangan dikaitkan dengan perkembangan kelembagaan pangan sejak masa pemerintahan presiden soekarno sampai pemerintahan presiden jokowi. hasil dan pembahasan masa presiden soekarno sampai presiden jokowi lembaga urusan pangan sebenarnya sudah dibentuk pemerintah sejak lama. tiga tahun setelah indonesia merdeka, presiden soekarno membentuk panitia agraria jogyakarta pada 21 mei 1948 yang bertanggungjawab menangani kebijakan pangan. kemudian panitia ini membentuk jawatan pengawasan makanan rakyat dan yayasan bahan makakan (bama) yang kewenangannya antara lain; membeli, menjual, dan mengadakan persediaan pangan. ketiga lembaga tersebut kemudian diganti dengan yayasan urusan bahan makanan (yubm), dan yayasan badan pembelian padi (ybp2). pada periode 1952-1956, pemerintahan soekarno menerapkan kebijakan swasembada beras melalui program kesejahteraan kasimo dengan mendirikan yubm tersebut pada 19531956. kemudian tahun 1967, kedua yayasan di atas dilebur dan diganti menjadi badan urusan logistik (bulog) sebagai badan pembeli tunggal, (eko suksmantri, dkk;2012;2). pada periode inilah merupakan awal pembentukan bulog sebagai lembaga urusan pangan secara langsung. kemudian periode 1956-1964, program swasembada beras tetap dijalankan melalui program sentra padi yang diatur yayasan badan pembelian padi (ybpp). pada tahun 1963, presiden soekarno memasukkan komoditas jagung sebagai bahan pangan pengganti beras karena langkanya beras di pasar sejak 1963. pada tahun 1964, pemerintah soekarno menerapkan kebijakan panca usaha tani dan sentra padi, yakni: 1) penggunaan bibit unggul; 2) pengolahan tanah yang baik; 3) pemilihan pupuk yang lengkap, tepat, dan baik; 4) pengendalian hama dan penyakit tanaman; dan 5) pengairan/irigasi yang baik. program sentra padi tersebut akhirnya gagal karena pendanaan yang kurang, masalah logistik, mis-manajemen sistem perkreditan, dan penentuan harga gabah yang lemah. 172 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016: 168-192 kemudian dilanjutkan dengan menerapkan program demonstrasi massal—kerja sama antara ipb dengan departemen pertanian dan merupakan cikal bakal dari program bimas pada era presiden suharto. sementara masa pemerintahan transisi 1965-1967, dibentuk lembaga komando logistik nasional (kolognas) setelah presiden suharto berkuasa, yang kemudian dibubarkan pada 1967. pada 14 mei 1967 lahirlah badan urusan logistik (bulog) sebagai pengganti kolognas— yang berfungsi sebagai agen pembeli beras tunggal seperti disebutkan di atas. sejak awal berdirinya, bulog memang difokuskan pada upaya menjaga ketahanan pangan indonesia melalui dua mekanisme yakni: pertama, stabilisasi harga beras. kedua, pengadaan beras bulanan untuk pns dan tni/polri. melihat fakta di atas, sebenarnya perhatian pemerintah terhadap masalah pangan sudah ada sejak awal kemerdekaan. namun terjadinya pergantian rezim pemerintahan menyebankan kelembagaan yang mengurusi pangan juga berubah-bah sehingga upaya mewujudkan swasembada pangan tidak berhasil pada era presiden soekarno. yubm, ybpp, dan dewan bahan makanan kemudian dilebur menjadi badan pelaksana urusan pangan (bpup). namun lembaga ini kembali gagal mengurusi pangan antara lain karena banyak gudang bpup kosong akibat kesulitan dana untuk membeli hasil produksi dalam negeri dan impor. dalam masa pemerintahan presiden soekarno, politik pangan adalah pembangunan pertanian sebagai urusan hidup-mati bangsa. tetapi sebagian besar imlementasinya gagal, tidak hanya disebabkan oleh kegagalan produksi beras tetapi ketiadaan anggaran negara untuk menambah stok beras sehingga mengakibatkan harga beras meningkat tajam mulai tahun 19641965. kegagalan swasembada pangan pada pemerintahan presiden soekarno menyebabkan tidak tercapainya kebijakan ketahanan pangan yang dibuktikan dengan meningkatnya harga beras sejak 1964-1967. sejarah mencatat 31 mei 1967 merupakan momen berdirinya badan urusan logistik. digantinya kolognas dengan bulog tahun 1967 oleh presiden suharto, berdasarkan keppres nomor 114/kep/1967, bulog kemudian diberi tugas dan fungsi sebagai satusatunya badan pembelian tunggal (single purchasing agency) melalui penerbitan keppres nomor 272 tahun 1967. status hukum bulog adalah lembaga pemerintah non-departemen (lpnd). kemudian pada januari 1969 melalui keppres nomor 11 tahun 1969, bulog direorganisasi dan direstrukturisasi dengan tugas membantu pemerintah menstabilkan harga pangan khususnya (sembilan) 9 bahan pangan pokok atau sembako, (lihat tabel 1 di bawah). artinya sejak 1969—1997 dengan dilakukannya reorganisasi dan perombakan struktur (restrukturisasi), tugas dan kewenangan bulog semakin bertambah dengan diberi kewenangan mengurusi komoditas pangan lainnya seperti gula pasir dan tepung terigu (1971), daging sapi (1974), kedelai (1977), jagung (1978), kacang tanah dan kacang hijau (1978). masa pemerintahan presiden suharto merupakan momen penting di sektor pangan di tanah air yakni dengan lahirnya uu no. 7 tahun 1996 tentang pangan (lembaran negara republik indonesia tahun 1996 nomor 90, tambahan lembaran negara nomor 3650). uu pangan ini lahir antar lain didorong oleh lahirnya keppres nomor 50 tahun 1995 tentang badan urusan logistik (lihat tabel 1). tetapi pembentukan bulog 1967 tidak serta-merta masalah pangan teratasi. indonesia pernah mengalami kekuarangan beras periode 1969-1982 dan yang paling parah tahun 1972. meskipun bulog melakukan langkah stabilisasi pasokan dan harga beras, bulog tidak siaga. bulog membutuhkan waktu 1 tahun untuk membangun kembali cadangan beras strategisnya. harga beras tahun 1972 meningkat lebih dari 100% (radius prawiro; 2004:170). sepanjang 1970-an sampai 1980-an dilakukan investasi besar-besaran untuk membangun infrastruktur pertanian seperti kelembagaan urusan pangan dari masa ke masa… (juli panglima saragih) 173 waduk, bendungan, dan irigasi. pada rencana pembangunan lima tahun (repelita i-iii), swasembada pangan merupakan fokus tersendiri yang dibuat pak harto. di dalam pelita i, pembangunan pertanian dan irigasi bertujuan untuk peningkatan produksi pangan terutama beras. pada masa pemerintahan pak harto juga dikembangkan institusi-institusi yang mendukung pertanian, mulai dari koperasi yang melayani kebutuhan pokok petani dalam usaha agribisnisnya, bulog yang menampung hasil dari petani, institusi penelitian seperti bptp yang berkembang untuk menghasilkan inovasi untuk pengembangan pertanian. pada masa pak harto salah satu produknya yang cukup terkenal adalah varietas unggul tahan wereng (vutw), hingga berbagai bentuk kerjasama antar lembaga yang terkait penyediaan sarana prasaran yang mendukung pertanian seperti irigasi dan pembangunan pabrik pupuk. strategi kebijakan pangan suharto masa orde baru antara lain penyediaan sarana penunjang, seperti pupuk, diamankan dengan membangun pabrik-pabrik pupuk. para petani dimodali dengan kemudahan memperoleh kredit bank. pemasaran hasil panen mereka dijamin dengan kebijakan harga dasar dan pengadaan pangan. pemeirntah juga memperkenalkan manajemen usaha tani, dimulai dari panca usaha tani, bimas, operasi khusus, dan intensifikasi khusus yang terbukti mampu meningkatkan produksi pangan, terutama beras. saat itu, budi daya padi di indonesia adalah yang terbaik di asia. pemerintah memfasilitasi ketersediaan benih unggul, pupuk, pestisida melalui subsidi yang terkontrol dengan baik. pabrik pupuk dibangun seperti pabrik pupuk sriwijaya di palembang, dan asean aceh fertilizer di aceh. program kerja sektor pertanian masa presiden suharto berbuah prestasi. indonesia yang dikenal sebagai negara agraria pengimpor beras terbesar pada 1966, telah mampu mencukupi kebutuhan pangan dalam negeri melalui swasembada beras pada 1984. jika 1969, indonesia baru memproduksi beras sekitar 12,2 juta ton beras, namun pada 1984 mencapai 25,8 juta ton beras (naik 111,47% dalam 15 tahun). kesuksesan ini mengantarkan presiden suharto berpidato di depan konferensi ke-23 fao di roma, italia, 14 november 1985. dengan ditandatanganinya letter of intents antara pemerintah indonesia dengan imf, pemerintah mengeluarkan keppres nomor 19 tahun 1998 yang menggantikan 2 keppres yakni keppres nomor 50 tahun 1995 dan keppres nomor 45 tahun 1997. namun sayangnya dalam keppres nomor 50 tahun 1995, bulog justru sangat berperan dalam mengurusi 9 komoditas pangan pokok termasuk menstabilkan harganya, khususnya beras. bulog memiliki posisi strategis dalam mengurusi pangan pokok di indonesia. sejak bertahun-tahun sejak swasembada beras 1984/1985, masyarakat tidak pernah merasakan lonjakan-lonjakan harga beras dan harga pangan lainnya. selama kurang lebih 28 tahun (1969-1997), masyarakat indonesia menikmati harga pangan pokok yang relatif stabil. fungsi kelembagaan bulog pada periode tersebut memang kuat dan diberi tugas dan kewenangan penuh untuk urusan pangan pokok (lihat tabel 2). baik keppres no.45 tahun 1997 maupun keppres no.19 tahun 1998 merupakan dua keppres yang mengurangi secara drastis tugas, fungsi, dan kewenangan bulog dalam urusan pangan. bulog diberi wewenang hanya menangani komoditas beras dan gula. sejak 1998 komoditas di luar beras dan gula pasir diserahkan kepada mekanisme pasar sehingga menyebakan lonjakan harga komoditas pangan lain sangat tinggi yang berdampak pada inflasi yang tinggi (inflatoir) tahun 1998-1999. fakta di atas juga disebabkan adanya liberalisasi pasar pangan yang dihembuskan dalam perjanjian agreement on agriculture oleh world trade organisation (wto)—indonesia telah meratifikasinya tahun 1995 lewat penghapusan subsidi dan pencabutan hak monopoli negara dalam struktur pasar pangan. 174 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016: 168-192 hal ini memperlemah akses masyarakat terhadap pangan, memunculkan para pencari rente baru, dan menaikkan harga komoditi pangan. dalam jangka panjang, pasar akan dikendalikan pemilik modal kuat, sehingga produksi pangan akan berorientasi bukan pada komoditi yang dibutuhkan rakyat banyak, melainkan pada komoditas yang berdaya jual tinggi. padahal, pangsa pengeluaran pangan terhadap total pengeluaran rumah tangga di indonesia tergolong amat tinggi, yaitu antara 67.2%, dengan 52.3% di pedesaan dan perkotaan. ketika bulog berubah menjadi perum, maka tidak ada lagi hak bulog untuk mempengaruhi arah dan besaran impor ataupun ekspor. bulog pun kehilangan hak eksklusifnya menjadi badan pengendali harga pangan. padahal jelas tidak dapat dipungkiri bahwa masalah pangan dan stabilitas harga merupakan persoalan strategis bagi semua negara, termasuk indonesia. hal ini merupakan skenario aoa wto yang mengharuskan pemerintah indonesia membuat beberapa kebijakan yang mencabut peran sentral bulog, baik sebagai pelaku, distributor maupun pengawas tunggal di sektor pangan yang sangat membahayakan kondisi pangan indonesia. tabel 1. kelembagaan urusan pangan di indonesia sejak pemerintahan presiden soekarno sampai presiden jokowi kelembagaan urusan pangan tugas dan wewenang dasar hukum penetapan pemerintahan/ tahun ditetapkan jawatan pengawasan makanan rakyat tugas pokok: membeli, menjual, dan mengadakan persediaan pangan. presiden soekarno (1948) yayasan bahan makanan tugas pokok: membeli, menjual, dan mengadakan persediaan pangan presiden soekarno (1948-1952) yayasan urusan bahan makanan tugas pokok: membeli, menjual, dan mengadakan persediaan pangan presiden soekarno (1952-1956) yayasan badan pembelian padi tugas pokok: membeli, menjual, dan mengadakan persediaan pangan presiden soekarno (1952) dewan bahan makanan pp no.7 tahun 1958. pp no.47 tahun 1958. presiden soekarno (1958) komando logistik nasional (kolognas) presiden soekarno (1965-april 1967) pembubaran kolognas keppres no.69 tahun 1967 presiden suharto badan urusan logistik*) tugas pokok: mengamankan penyediaan pangan dalam rangka menegakkan eksistensi pemerintahan baru. keputusan presidium kabinet no.114/u/kep. /5/1967 presiden suharto (april 1967) badan urusan logistik tugas pokok: menstabilkan dan mengamankan 9 bahan pokok. keppres no.11 tahun 1969 presidien suharto badan urusan logistik tugas pokok: melakukan stabilisasi harga beras. keppres no.39 tahun 1969 tgl. 21 januari 1969 presiden suharto (1969) badan urusan logistik tugas pokok: melaksanakan pengendalian harga beras, gabah, gandum dan bahan pokok lainnya guna menjaga kestabilan harga, baik bagi produsen maupun konsumen sesuai dengan kebijaksanaan umum pemerintah. keppres no.39 tahun 1978 presiden suharto (1978) kelembagaan urusan pangan dari masa ke masa… (juli panglima saragih) 175 kelembagaan urusan pangan tugas dan wewenang dasar hukum penetapan pemerintahan/ tahun ditetapkan badan urusan logistik tugas: koordinasi pembangunan pangan dan meningkatkan mutu gizi pangan. keppres no.103 tahun 1993. presiden suharto (1993) badan urusan logistik tugas pokok: 1)fokus pada peningkatan stabilisasi dan pengelolaan persediaan bahan pokok dan pangan. 2)mengendalikan harga dan mengelola persediaan (7 komoditas pangan pokok) seperti: beras, gula pasir, gandum, terigu, kedelai, pakan, dan bahan pangan lainnya, baik secara langsung maupun tidak langsung, dalam rangka menjaga kestabilan harga bahan pangan bagi produsen dan konsumen. 3)memenuhi kebutuhan pangan berdasarkan kebijaksanaan umum pemerintah. fungsi bulog antara lain: 1)pengadaan dalam negeri; 2)pengadaan luar negeri; 3)pengelolaan dan perawatan persediaan; 2)penganalisasian harga dan pasar, penyaluran, serta angkutan. keppres no. 50 tahun 1995. presiden suharto (1995) badan urusan logistik tugas pokok: menangani komoditas beras dan gula pasir. keppres no.45 tahun 1997, tgl.1 nov 1997. presiden suharto (1997) badan urusan logistik pemerintah mengembalikan tugas bulog seperti keppres nomor 39 tahun 1968 yakni menangani komoditas beras saja. keppres no.19 tahun 1998 tgl.21 januari 1998. presiden suharto (1998) badan urusan logistik tugas pokok: melakukan stabilisasi harga beras. presiden bj. habibie (1998-1999) badan urusan logistik tugas pokok: 1)manajemen logistik melalui pengelolaan persediaan, distribusi dan pengendalian harga beras (mempertahankan harga pembelian pemerintah – hpp). 2)mengelola usaha jasa logistik sesuai dengan peraturan perundang-undangan yang berlaku. keppres no. 29 tahun 2000. presiden abdulrachman wahid (1999-2001) badan urusan logistik tugas pokok: 1)melaksanakan tugas pemerintahan di bidang manajemen logistik sesuai dengan ketentuan peraturan perundangundangan yang berlaku; 2)pengkajian dan penyusunan kebijakan nasional di bidang manajemen logistik, 3) pengadaan, pengelolaan persediaan, dan distribusi beras, serta pengendalian harga beras; keppres no.166 tahun 2000. presiden abdurrahman wahid (1999-2001) 176 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016: 168-192 kelembagaan urusan pangan tugas dan wewenang dasar hukum penetapan pemerintahan/ tahun ditetapkan 4)pengembangan industri berbasis beras, termasuk produksi padi/gabah; 5)pengolahan gabah dan beras; a. 6)pengembangan pergudangan beras. tugas khusus: b. 1)pengamanan harga pangan lainnya; c. 2)pengelolaan cadangan pangan pemerintah untuk pangan lainnya; d. 3)penyediaan dan pendistribusian pangan lainnya; e. 4)pelaksanaan impor pangan lainnya dalam rangka pelaksanaan tugas sesuai ketentuan peraturan perundangundangan; f. 5)pengembangan industri berbasis pangan lainnya; g. 6)pengembangan pergudangan pangan lainnya. badan urusan logistik tugas pokok bulog adalah dalam rangka tugas pemeirntahan bidang menajemen logistik. kewenangan antara lain: 1) perumusan dan pelaksanaan kebijakan tertentu di bidang manajemen logistik, pengadaan, pengelolaan persediaan, dan distribusi beras serta pengendalian harga beras; 2) perumusan norma dan pengadaan, pengelolaan dan distribusi beras. keppres no.103 tahun 2001 pasal 40-42. presiden megawati sukarnoputri (2001) tugas pokok: 1) manajemen logistik melalui pengelolaan persediaan, distribusi dan pengendalian harga beras (mempertahankan harga pembelian pemerintah – hpp). 2) mengelola usaha jasa logistik sesuai dengan peraturan perundang-undangan yang berlaku. keppres no. 03 tahun 2002 tgl.7 januari 2002. presiden megawati soekarnoputri (2002) perusahaan umum badan urusan logistik tugas pokok: 1)menyediakan pelayanan bagi kemanfaatan umum dan sekaligus memupuk keuntungan berdasarkan prinsip pengelolaan perusahaan; 2)menyelenggarakan usaha logistik pangan pokok yang bermutu dan memadai bagi pemenuhan hajat hidup orang banyak; 3)dalam hal tertentu melaksanakan tugas-tugas tertentu yang diberikan pemerintah dalam pengamanan harga pp no. 7 tahun 2003 tentang bulog. presiden megawati soekarnoputri (2003) kelembagaan urusan pangan dari masa ke masa… (juli panglima saragih) 177 kelembagaan urusan pangan tugas dan wewenang dasar hukum penetapan pemerintahan/ tahun ditetapkan pangan pokok, 4)mengelola cadangan pangan pemerintah (cpp), dan distribusi pangan pokok kepada golongan masyarakat tertentu, khususnya pangan pokok beras dan pangan pokok lainnya yang ditetapkan oleh pemerintah dalam rangka ketahanan pangan. tujuan perusahaan adalah turut serta membangun ekonomi nasional khususnya dalam rangka pelaksanaan program pembangunan nasional di bidang pangan. perusahaan umum badan urusan logistik presiden susilo b. yudhoyono (2004-2014) perusahaan umum badan urusan logistik instruksi presiden nomor 5 tahun 2015 presiden joko widodo (2015) perusahaan umum badan urusan logistik tugas pokok: 1)pengamanan harga pangan pokok beras ditingkat produsen dan konsumen; 2)pengelolaan cadangan pangan pokok beras pemerintah; 3)penyediaan dan pendistribusian pangan pokok beras kepada golongan masyarakat tertentu; 4)pelaksanaan impor beras dalam rangka pelaksanaan sesuai dengan ketentuan peraturan perundang-undangan; 5)pengembangan industri berbasis beras, termasuk produksi padi/gabah serta pengolahan gabah dan beras; 6)pengembangan pergudangan beras. tugas khusus: a. 1)pengamanan harga pangan lainnya; b. 2)pengelolaan cadangan pangan pemerintah untuk pangan lainnya; c. 3)penyediaan dan pendistribusian pangan lainnya; d. 4)pelaksanaan impor pangan lainnya dalam rangka pelaksanaan tugas sesuai ketentuan peraturan perundangundangan; e. 5)pengembangan industri berbasis pangan lainnya; 6)pengembangan pergudangan pangan lainnya. pp no.13 tahun 2016 tentang bulog. presiden joko widodo (2016) perusahaan umum badan urusan logistik tugas pokok: -menjaga ketersediaan pangan dan perpres no.48 tahun 2016 tentang penugasan presiden joko widodo 178 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016: 168-192 kelembagaan urusan pangan tugas dan wewenang dasar hukum penetapan pemerintahan/ tahun ditetapkan stabilitas harga pangan di tingkat produsen dan konsumen untuk komoditas beras, jagung, dan kedelai. kepada bulog dalam rangka ketahanan pangan nasional (2016) keterangan: *) sejak 1967-2002 bulog berbentuk lembaga pemerintah non-departemen. keppres ri no.103 tahun 2001 menegaskan bahwa bulog harus beralih status menjadi bumn selambat-lambatnya 31 mei 2003. sumber: diolah dari berbagai sumber setelah mundurnya presiden suharto pada mei 1998 dan digantikan oleh bj. habibie, eksistensi bulog masih dipertahankan. tugas dan kewenangannya masih sangat terbatas sesuai keppres no.19 tahun 1998. bulog masih berbentuk lembaga pemerintah nondepartemen. pada masa pemerintahan presiden abdurrahman wahid, bulog juga masih dipertahankan. tetapi kemudian pemerintah mengeluarkan keppres no. 29 dan no.166 tahun 2000. tugas dan fungsi bulog hanya menangani komoditas beras termasuk menjaga stabilitas harga beras di pasar. keppres tersebut tidak secara tegas dan tidak dinyatakan bahwa impor beras dilarang. walaupun presiden sudah mengeluarkan 2 keppres tentang bulog pada tahun 2000, tetapi impor beras sejak 2000 sudah mulai dilaksanakan sampai pemerintahan presiden sby. berdasarkan data bps pusat, jumlah impor beras tahun 2000 sebesar 4,7 juta ton. impor beras terbesar berasal dari vietnam (38%), thailand (28,90%), dan sisanya dari negara asia lainnya. menurut keppres no.166 tahun 2000 bahwa bulog mempunyai tugas pokok melaksanakan tugas pemerintahan dan pembangunan di bidang manajemen logistik sesuai dengan peraturan perundang-undangan yang berlaku. dari isi aturan, fungsi bulog sebatas manajemen logistik atau dapat dikatakan hanya sebagai pedagang pengumpul komoditi pangan. komoditi pangan yang termasuk dalam wewenang bulog hanya beras saja. untuk komoditi non-beras bulog tidak memiliki wewenang melaksanakan tugas pokoknya. padahal sebelum keppres no.166 tahun 2000, bulog memiliki fungsi sebagai badan penstabil harga pangan tidak hanya beras. hal tersebut menjadi kontradiksi ketika bulog yang merupakan lembaga pemerintah urusan pangan tidak mampu menjadi badan penstabil harga. sebagaimana dengan rezim pemerintahan sebelumnya, tugas dan fungsi bulog selalu mengalami perubahan. presiden megawati mengeluarkan keppres no.03 tahun 2002 tgl.7 januari 2002 untuk menggantikan keppres nomor 29 dan nomor 166 tahun 2000 yang dikeluarkan oleh presiden sebelumnya. berdasarkan keppres di atas, tugas dan fungsi bulog sangat general dan juga tidak secara tegas dinyatakan. intinya adalah bulog masih menangani urusan perberasan termasuk distribusi beras untuk golongan masyarakat tertentu atau yang disebut dengan raskin. kemudian pada tahun 2003, presiden megawati mengeluarkan pp nomor 7 tahun 2003 tentang perusahaan umum bulog. pada saat inilah bulog berubah status dan bentuk hukum dari lembaga pemerintah nondepartemen menjadi badan usaha milik negara berbentuk perum. tetapi regulasi ini juga tidak menjelaskan secara konkrit tugas dan kewenangan bulog sebagai badan usaha untuk mengurus komoditas pangan pokok. sejak 2003 sampai 2015, urusan pangan pokok masih didasarkan pada peraturan pemerintah tersebut yakni tugas dan wewenang untuk menyelenggarakan usaha logistik pangan pokok dan usaha-usaha lain. pasal 6 ayat 2 (b) pp nomor 7 tahun 2003 di atas ditegaskan, dalam hal tertentu, perum.bulog melaksanakan tugas-tugas tertentu yang diberikan pemerintah kelembagaan urusan pangan dari masa ke masa… (juli panglima saragih) 179 dalam pengamanan harga pangan pokok, pengelolaan cadangan beras pemerintah (cbp), dan distribusi pangan pokok kepada golongan masyarakat tertentu, khususnya pangan pokok beras dan pangan pokok lainnya yang ditetapkan oleh pemerintah dalam rangka ketahanan pangan (raskin). dari pasal tersebut juga tidak secara tegas perum.bulog bertanggungjawab menangani komoditas pangan pokok lain di luar beras. artinya harga komoditas pangan lain di luar beras diserahkan kepada mekanisme pasar bebas. walaupun bulog telah berubah menjadi perusahaan umum, tetapi bulog masih belum mampu untuk menjamin stabilitas harga pangan pokok di luar beras di pasar. hal inilah yang menyebabkan sebagan besar harga pangan melonjak hampir setiap tahun terutama di hari keagamaan seperti ramadhan, natal dan tahun baru dan sulit untuk turun walau dalam kondisi pasar relatif stabil. pada masa pemerintahan presiden sby (2004-2014), upaya pemberdayaan kelembagaan pangan juga terus dilakukan. pada masa presiden sby, pemerintah mengeluarkan perpres nomor 32 tahun 2013 tentang penugasan kepada perum bulog untuk pengamanan harga dan penyaluran kedelai. namun komoditas yang ditetapkan hanya kedelai. penugasan tersebut juga tergantung kepada kebijakan menteri perdagangan dan rekomendasi menteri pertanian. tampak bahwa perpres ini tidak kuat dalam menjaga stabilitas harga kedelai. di samping itu, bulog tidak secara tegas diberi kewenangan untuk impor kedelai, tetapi dapat bertindak sebagai distributor utama kedelai untuk pasar dalam negeri. bulog juga dapat bekerja sama dengan badan usaha lain dalam mendsitribusikan kedelai. kemudian presiden sby tahun 2006 membentuk dewan ketahanan pangan (dkp) melalui perpres nomor 83 tahun 2006. perpres ini menggantikan keppres nomor 132 tahun 2001 sebagai pelaksanaan dari uu nomor 7 tahun 1996 tentang pangan. berdasarkan perpres ini, tugas dkp adalah: 1) merumuskan kebijakan dalam rangka mewujudkan ketahanan pangan nasional; 2) melaksanakan evaluasi dan pengendalian dalam rangka mewujudkan ketahanan pangan nasional. tugas dkp meliputi kegiatan: penyediaan pangan, distribusi pangan, cadangan pangan, penganekaragaman pangan, pencegahan, dan penanggulangan masalah pangan dan gizi. dalam menrespon dan antisipasi terhadap kondisi iklim ekstrem, pemerintahan sby tahun 2011 menugaskan perum.bulog untuk mengamankan cadangan beras pemerintah melalui instruksi presiden no.8 tahun 2011 yang jumlahnya ditetapkan menteri pertanian. di samping itu, perum.bulog juga ditugaskan mengamankan cadangan beras untuk masyarakat golongan tertentu (raskin). sedangkan pembelian gabah/beras oleh perum.bulog dalam rangka pengamanan cadangan beras pemerintah dilakukan dengan memperhatikan harga pembelian pemerintah (hpp). dalam hal harga pasar gabah/beras lebih tinggi dari hpp, pembelian gabah/beras dapat dilakukan oleh perum.bulog pada harga yang lebih tinggi dari hpp dengan memperhatikan harga pasar yang dicatat oleh badan pusat statistik. fungsi perum.bulog dalam hal ini masih tetap dilaksanakan sesuai dengan tugas dan kewenangannya. untuk melaksanakan tugas tersebut, menteri keuangan mengalokasikan anggaran yang diperlukan untuk pengadaan gabah/beras dalam rangka penugasan pemerintah kepada perum.bulog sesuai dengan kemampuan keuangan negara dalam apbn. kemudian tahun 2012, pemerintahan sby mengganti uu no.7 tahun 1996 dengan uu no.18 tahun 2012 tentang pangan. dalam pasal 126-128 tidak dinyatakan secara konkrit lembaga pangan yang dimaksud dalam uu tersebut. lembaga pangan sesuai pasal tersebut di atas merupakan lembaga pemerintah dan bukan badan usaha. lembaga pangan pemerintah tersebut dapat menugaskan kepada bumn untuk melakukan tugas-tugas pangan 180 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016: 168-192 sebagaimana diatur dalam undang-undang di atas. dari pasal di atas, kecenderungan untuk multi-tafsir dapat terjadi yakni lembaga pemerintah dimaksud dapat merupakan kementerian pertanian atau bkp atau kementerian perdagangan. seperti halnya uu no.7 tahun 1996, uu no.18 tahun 2012 juga tidak anyak mengatur secara rinci, jelas dan detail soal lembaga pangan. padahal urusan pangan sangat kompleks dan lintas-sektor. sebelum lahirnya uu no.7 tahun 1996 memang belum ada peraturan perundang-undangan yang mengatur kelembagaan pangan. tetapi dapat dilihat bahwa pemerintah perlu lebih tegas dan berwibawa dalam mengurus pangan, tidak hanya mengatur dari sisi hulu semata (produksi) tetapi juga dari sisi hilir (distribusi/supply) dalam hal ini bulog. masalah pangan di sisi hulu telah menjadi tanggungjawab dan domain kementerian pertanian di pusat maupun daerah sebagai regulator. tetapi dari sisi hilir pemerintah tidak hanya sebagai regulator, tetapi perlu ―intervensi‖ dengan menguatkan bumn perum. bulog dalam kegiatan usaha hilir pangan. kerumitan dan persoalan yang paling banyak di sektor pangan adalah di sisi hilir. walaupun dari sisi hulu pemerintah ―sudah‖ mampu menanganinya, tetapi di sisi hilir seperti tata niaga pangan, pemerintah belum mampu menanganinya termasuk komoditas beras yang sudah sejak bertahun-tahun ditangani oleh pemerintah melalui bulog sampai periode pemerintahan presiden sby 2004-2014. sejak presiden soekarno sampai presiden sby, pemerintah sudah mengeluarkan 15 peraturan perundang-undangan tentang kelembagaan pangan di luar departemen pertanian/kementerian pertanian. mulai dari keputusan presiden sampai peraturan pemerintah dan undang-undang. di satu sisi hal ini menunjukkan positif dan besarnya perhatian pemerintah mengenai pangan, tetapi di sisi lain seringnya pergantian peraturan perundang-undangan, menyebabkan urusan pangan menjadi tidak fokus dan juga berubahubah sesuai dengan rezim pemerintahan yang berkuasa. tetapi diakui tidak secara jelas dan tegas kelembagaan pangan diatur dalam undang-undang tentang pangan baik uu no.7 tahun 1996 maupun uu no.18 tahun 2012. ketidaktegasan dan ketidakjelasan pengaturan secara konkrit pengaturan kelembagaan pangan dalam suatu uu akan mempengaruhi implementasi kebijakan dan program pemerintah dalam urusan pangan. sebab tidak mungkin urusan pangan sepenuhnya diserahkan kepada mekanisme pasar bebas. masih dibutuhkan intervensi pemerintah baik dalam sisi hulu (kementerian pertanian) maupun sisi hilir (bulog). masa presiden joko widodo misalnya, pemerintah sudah mengeluarkan 3 bentuk peraturan perundang-undangan di luar undang-undang, yakni instruksi presiden no.5 tahun 2015 tentang kebijakan pengadaan gabah/beras dan penyaluran beras oleh pemerintah melalui perum.bulog, pp no.13 tahun 2016, dan perpres no.48 tahun 2016. sedangkan perpres no.48 tahun 2016—yang dikeluarkan untuk melaksanakan ketentuan pasal 3 dari peraturan pemerintah no.13 tahun 2016. ketiga peraturan di atas menugaskan dan memberi kewenangan kepada perum.bulog untuk mengurus pangan, tidak hanya komoditas beras. beberapa keuntungan bulog dengan perubahan departemen menjadi perum adalah: pertama, bulog dapat menjalankan tugas-tugas tertentu yang diberikan pemerintah seperti pengamanan harga pangan pokok, menyelenggarakan logistik pangan termasuk cadangan beras pemerintah, dan distribusi beras serta komoditas pangan pokok lainnya untuk golongan masyarakat tertentu. kedua, bulog dapat menjalankan fungsi bisnis sesuai uu tentang bumn karena ruang gerak sebagai badan usaha lebih fleksibel tanpa mengesampingkan tugas publik. ketiga, bulog dapat bertindak sebagai distributor tunggal kelembagaan urusan pangan dari masa ke masa… (juli panglima saragih) 181 dalam komoditas pangan pokok karena memang diperbolehkan dalam uu no.5 tahun 1999 tentang anti-monopoli. lahirnya pp no.13 tahun 2016 tentang perum.bulog merupakan entry point dalam menata dan mencari solusi tata niaga pangan pokok ke depan terutama dari sisi hilir. tetapi salah satu persoalan di lapangan adalah, tidak adanya data yang akurat mengenai berapa jumlah rata-rata kebutuhan/permintaan setiap jenis komoditas pokok dan berapa jumlah stok kebutuhan pokok yang ada di pasar baik di tingkat produsen, di tingkat distributor maupun pedagang kecil/eceran per hari. apabila hal ini dapat diketahui dengan tingkat error yang relatif kecil, maka akan dapat dijadikan sebagai masukan dalam pengambilan kebijakan ke depan. apabila tugas dan kewenangan perum.bulog dalam pp no. 7 tahun 2003 dengan pp no. 13 tahun 2016, berbeda, maka perbedaan tersebut turut menyebabkan fungsi dan kredibilitas perum.bulog dalam menjaga supply dan stabilitas harga pangan pokok menjadi tidak optimal dan tidak maksimal. untuk memperkuat tugas, dan wewenang bulog pemerintah dengan pertimbangan memperkuat struktur permodalan dan meningkatkan kapasitas usaha, presiden joko widodo mengeluarkan pp no.49 tahun 2015 tentang penambahan penyertaan modal negara ke dalam modal perusahaan umum (perum) bulog senilai rp3 triliun dari apbn tahun anggaran 2015. kemudian dalam konteks hulu, kementerian pertanian juga telah memiliki visi dan program pembangunan pertanian dalam renstra 2015-2019, yakni ―terwujudnya sistem pertanian—bio-industry berkelanjutan yang menghasilkan beragam pangan sehat dan produk bernilai tambah tinggi berbasis sumberdaya lokal untuk kedaulatan pangan dan kesejahteraan petani‖. renstra pertanian 2015-2019 adalah: 1) swasembada padi, jagung, dan kedelai serta peningkatan produksi daging dan produksi gula; 2) peningkatan diversifikasi pangan; 3) peningkatan nilai tambah, daya saing, ekspor, dan substitusi impor; 4) penyediaan bahan baku bio-industry dan bioenergy; 5) peningkatan pendapatan dan kesejahteraan petani. bulog dalam pilar ketahanan pangan: program raskin pemerintah saat ini senantiasa tetap menjaga ketahanan pangan setiap rumah tangga, salah satunya melalui komoditas beras untuk rumah tangga miskin. dari sisi ketersediaan, pemerintah melalui inpres no. 3 tahun 2012 memberikan jaminan harga dan pasar bagi hasil produksi petani melalui penyerapan/pengadaan oleh perum.bulog sehingga petani memiliki semangat untuk terus berproduksi. peningkatan produksi padi (gabah) akan memperkuat ketersediaan beras dalam negeri tanpa tergantung pada impor. dari sisi keterjangkauan, pemerintah telah menyediakan beras di setiap rumah tangga dengan harga terjangkau, khusus bagi rumah tangga miskin. program raskin tersedia di dekat rumah tangga miskin dengan harga yang lebih rendah dari harga di pasar. sedangkan untuk menjamin stabilitas pasokan dan harga beras, pemerintah melalui perum.bulog telah melakukan pemerataan stok dengan tersedianya beras di setiap gudang perum bulog di seluruh indonesia. dari sisi rumah tangga miskin, peran bulog telah membuka akses secara ekonomi dan fisik terhadap pangan, sehingga dapat melindungi rumah tangga rawan pangan dari malnutrition terutama energi dan protein. hal ini sangat penting bagi negara berkembang seperti indonesia yang menghadapi permasalahan masyarakat yang kekurangan energi dan protein. kekurangan tersebut dapat berakibat buruk terhadap kecerdasan anak, rendahnya produktivitas sdm, dan kematian sebagai akibat penyakit infeksi karena lemahnya daya tahan tubuh. raskin saat ini telah menjadi program perlindungan sosial atau jaring pengaman social (social protection programme). bukan lagi sebagai 182 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016: 168-192 program darurat pangan pada awalnya. dengan demikian raskin—sebagai bagian dari strategi ketahanan pangan pemerintah, telah diakui memiliki dampak dalam perkonomian dan perberasan nasional. program raskin yang dijalankan bulog—dalam kontek ketahanan pangan merupakan program yang multiobjektif yaitu: pertama, menjaga ketahanan pangan keluarga miskin; kedua, berfungsi sebagai pendukung peningkatan kualitas sdm masyarakat miskin; ketiga, secara tidak langsung berperan menjaga stabilitas ekonomi makro; keempat, memiliki keunggulan sebagai program yang bersifat ”people oriented‖ dengan sasaran yang jelas berupa rtm; kelima,program raskin juga bersifat ”commodity oriented‖ berbasis komoditas beras yang merupakan bahan pokok strategis. keenam, program raskin juga menyertakan partisipasi yang luas, mulai dari pemerintah pusat (bulog), pemerintah daerah, serta masyarakat. raskin juga memiliki dampak langsung terhadap harga beras di pasar. hal ini terlihat saat raskin hanya diberikan 10 atau 11 bulan pada tahun 2006 dan 2007, harga beras di akhir tahun melonjak lebih tajam. umumnya pada akhir tahun adalah musim paceklik, sehingga suplai beras ke pasar berkurang. namun dari sisi permintaan, rumah tangga sasaran yang biasanya menerima raskin, tidak lagi mendapat raskin sehingga belasan juta rumah tangga menambah permintaan beras ke pasar. kekurangan suplai di satu sisi dan peningkatan permintaan di sisi lain mengakibatkan harga beras naik sejak 2014. dalam uu no.18 tahun 2012 tentang pangan diamanatkan bahwa pemerintah bersama masyarakat bertanggungjawab mewujudkan ketahanan pangan. hal ini dapat diartikan bahwa ketahanan pangan tidaklah sepenuhnya diserahkan pada mekanisme pasar seperti yang dilakukan sebagian negara maju dan liberal. apabila hal ini ditempuh maka dapat berakibat buruk pada kelompok masyarakat miskin yang jumlahnya masih dominan. keberadaan masyarakat miskin tersebut terpencar di seluruh wilayah indonesia dengan keterbatasan infrastruktur transportasi dan komunikasi. dengan mewujudkan ketahanan pangan yang tangguh, masyarakat yang rawan pangan tersebut dapat terlindungi dengan baik. dalam hal ini fungsi perum.bulog sangat penting dan strategis. sejumlah negara di asia juga memberlakukan berbagai kebijakan pangan guna melindungi petani produsen, konsumen ataupun keduanya secara simultan baik melalui fungsi penetapan harga pembelian pemerintah (hpp), penyediaan stok, ataupun penyaluran/distribusi pangan dalam rangka menjamin stabilisasi harga konsumen. intervensi (negara) tersebut dilaksanakan melalui berbagai lembaga pangan pemerintah, baik yang berbentuk seperti bumn yaitu public warehouse organisation (pwo) di thailand, semacam lpnd seperti national food authority di philipina, ataupun berbentuk perusahaan terbuka seperti bernas di malaysia. meskipun terdapat perbedaan status lembaga operator bidang pangan yang melaksanakan fungsi intervensi di pasar di 3 negara di atas, namun di masing-masing lembaga tersebut secara jelas disebutkan kewajiban dan hak-hak yang diberikan kepada operator dari pemerintah yang menugaskan. dengan demikian, terdapat kejelasan tentang hal-hal yang perlu dilakukan oleh operator serta kejelasan hak-hak yang diberikan kepada lembaga operator, termasuk segala beban (biaya/anggaran) yang timbul akibat penugasan tersebut. pengadaan gabah/beras dalam negeri: pilar ketersediaan penguatan bulog melalui pengadaan gabah/beras dalam negeri dipercaya akan dapat mewujudkan amanat dalam uu no.18 tahun 2012 tentang pangan yakni mewujudkan kedaulatan, kemandirian, dan ketahanan pangan nasional. dalam kaitan ini, presiden joko widodo telah menandatangani perpres no.48 tahun 2016 tentang penugasan kepada perum.bulog dalam rangka ketahanan pangan nasional. perpres ini memberikan tugas dan kelembagaan urusan pangan dari masa ke masa… (juli panglima saragih) 183 tanggung jawab baru kepada perum bulog bahwa pengadaan pangan diutamakan melalui pengadaan pangan dari dalam negeri. dalam hal pengadaan pangan dalam negeri—jika tidak mencukupi, maka dapat dilakukan pengadaan pangan dari stok operasional perum.bulog maupun dari luar negeri dengan tetap menjaga kepentingan produsen dan konsumen dalam negeri. tugas publik perum.bulog merupakan amanat dari inpres nomor 3 tahun 2012 tentang kebijakan pengadaan gabah/beras dan penyaluran beras oleh pemerintah, yang merupakan pengejawantahan intervensi pemerintah dalam perberasan nasional untuk memperkuat ketahanan pangan. tugas dan tanggungjawab publik perum.bulog tersebut saling terkait dan memperkuat satu sama lain sehingga dapat mewujudkan ketahanan pangan rumah tangga maupun nasional yang lebih kokoh. ketiga tugas publik tersebut adalah pertama, melaksanakan kebijakan pembelian gabah/beras dalam negeri dengan ketentuan harga pembelian pemerintah (hpp). kegiatan ini diwujudkan dalam bentuk pengadaan gabah dan beras dalam negeri oleh perum.bulog. kedua, menyediakan dan menyalurkan beras bersubsidi bagi kelompok masyarakat berpendapatan rendah yang diwujudkan dalam pelaksanaan program raskin. sedangkan ketiga, menyediakan dan menyalurkan beras untuk menjaga stabilitas harga beras, menanggulangi keadaan darurat, bencana, dan rawan pangan. kegiatan ketiga dilaksanakan perum bulog dalam bentuk pengelolaan cadangan beras pemerintah (cbp). konsep pengadaan gabah dan beras dalam negeri dilakukan pemerintah sebagai intervensi dari sisi produsen pada saat supply beras melimpah karena panen raya. untuk melindungi petani dari tingkat harga yang rendah karena kurang kuatnya nilai tawar petani saat panen, pemerintah menggunakan instrumen hpp—sebelumnya harga dasar (hd). dengan instrumen hpp ini, diharapkan pasar akan menjadikan hpp sebagai patokan dalam membeli gabah dan beras petani sehingga petani menjadi terlindungi. selain itu, pengadaan oleh perum.bulog juga dapat menjadi salah satu alternatif pasar bagi produksi petani dalam negeri. dengan demikian, pengadaan dalam negeri akan mampu menjadi jaminan pasar dan harga bagi produksi dalam negeri sehingga petani masih tetap bersemangat untuk memproduksi pangan (beras) dalam negeri untuk menjaga ketersediaan pasokan pangan nasional. melalui pengadaan gabah dan beras dalam negeri, pilar ketersediaan ketahanan pangan dapat diwujudkan. di bawah ini digambarkan alur pengadaan gabah/beras oleh bulog guna memperkuat ketersediaan beras di masyarakat melalui peran bulog. keterangan: *) unit pengolahan beras dan gabah bulog gambar 2. alur pengadaan beras/gabah oleh perum bulog dari petani sumber: www.bulog.co.id satgas upbg*) mitra kerja petani gudang perum.bulog http://www.bulog.co.id/ kelembagaan urusan pangan dari masa ke masa… (juli panglima saragih) 184 selama ini, pengamanan hpp dilakukan perum.bulog melalui pembelian gabah/beras dalam negeri terutama saat panen raya. mengikuti perkembangan produksi beras yang naik tajam dalam tiga tahun terakhir ini, maka penyerapan pemerintah melalui pengadaan dalam negeri oleh perum.bulog menjadi salah satu hal penting. pasokan yang melimpah terutama saat panen raya, mengakibatkan terjadinya surplus di pasar yang perlu penyerapan. keberhasilan perum.bulog dalam menghimpun stok dari pengamanan hpp membantu dalam memperkuat stok beras nasional, juga membantu peningkatan pendapatan jutaan petani yang tersebar di berbagai tempat di tanah air dan sekaligus dapat mendorong stabilitas harga beras. hal ini tergambar dalam alur pengadaan beras oleh bulog di atas. (lihat gambar 2). bulog tidak hanya membeli beras tetapi juga membeli gabah petani dan kemudian diolah menjadi beras melalui upbg bulog yang kemudian disimpan di gudang bulog. peningkatan stok bulog adalah guna mewujudkan ketersediaan pangan (availability) untuk masyarakat. gambar 3. produksi padi (gabah kering giling) indonesia periode 2002-2016 sumber: diolah dari data bulog pembelian atau pengadaan bagah/beras oleh perum.bulog selama ini rata-rata mencapai sekitar 5%-9% dari total produksi beras nasional setiap tahunnya atau sekitar 1,5-3 juta ton setara beras per tahun, terbesar di antara firm yang ada di dalam industri padi/beras nasional. dengan besarnya pembelian ini, maka hpp dapat menjadi patokan bagi pembelian gabah dan beras di pasar umum. hal ini terlihat dari perkembangan harga gabah dan beras di pasar yang selalu di atas harga pembelian pemerintah. dana pengadaan dalam negeri yang mengalir ke pedesaan mencapai rp6-7 triliun selama 4-5 bulan periode pengadaan. berbagai kajian menyebutkab bahwa multiplier effect dari kegiatan pengadaan gabah dan beras dalam negeri diantaranya adalah mampu menggerakkan perekonomian pedesaan dan mendorong pembangunan pedesaan dengan mengalir sekitar rp. 19 triliun melalui peningkatan pendapatan dan perluasan lapangan kerja. pengadaan juga berfungsi mendorong harga produsen agar memberi keuntungan dan insentif bagi usaha tani padi, yang juga berarti meningkatkan kesejahteraannya. strategi stabilisasi harga beras oleh bulog sejak menjadi badan usaha dilakukan melalui operasi pasar yang terdiri dari: 1) operasi pasar kontrak; 2)operasi pasar murni melalui distributor/retailer; 3)operasi pasar murni melalui satgas bulog; 4)operasi pasar khusus; 4)program raskin yang dilaksanakan oleh perum.bulog misalnya, adalah bertujuan untuk 0 10000000 20000000 30000000 40000000 50000000 60000000 70000000 80000000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 51489694 52137604 54088468 54151097 54454937 57157435 60325925 64389890 66411469 65385183 69060000 69270000 70850000 75360000 79140000 kelembagaan urusan pangan dari masa ke masa… (juli panglima saragih) 185 memperkuat pilar keterjangkauan (accessibilty) pangan pokok bagi masyarakat. beras pengadaan dalam negeri diantaranya disalurkan langsung oleh bulog kepada rumah tangga miskin yang menjadi sasaran program penanggulangan kemiskinan. dengan nama program raskin—beras untuk rumah tangga miskin diharapkan setiap rumah tangga sasaran mampu memperoleh ketahanan pangannya tidak lagi dengan membeli beras di pasar dengan harga relatif mahal tetapi ke perum.bulog sehingga hal ini akan mengurangi permintaan beras ke pasar. strategi ini paling tidak secara psikologis akan meredam gejolak pasar komoditas beras. cadangan beras pemerintah: memperkuat pilar stabilitas harga cadangan beras pemerintah sangat diperlukan untuk memperkuat ketahanan pangan rumah tangga dalam situasi darurat seperti bencana alam banjir; kekeringan, serangan hama/ penyakit, gunung meletus, dan sebagainya, serta bencana yang dibuat manusia (konflik sosial). cadangan beras pemerintah yang dikelola bulog juga berperan mengatasi kondisi rawan daya beli masyarakat akibat gejolak harga pangan yang tinggi (inflatoir). dengan menyatunya stok cadangan beras pemerintah di bulog secara fisik (secara administrasi terpisah), pemerintah akan mudah untuk memanfaatkan beras tersebut apabila diperlukan setiap saat, setiap tempat, sehingga rumah tangga masih terutama masyarakat miskin dan hampir miskin, tetap memiliki akses terhadap pangan pokok. dengan cadangan beras pemerintah yang tersedia setiap saat, di setiap tempat, maka stabilitas pangan (beras) nasional dapat terwujud. rumah tangga pada situasi darurat dan saat terjadi kenaikan harga pangan yang tinggi dapat mengharapkan stabilitas pasokan dan harga dari cadangan beras pemerintah ini. dengan demikian dapat menjadi salah satu alat memperkuat pilar stabilitas ketahanan pangan. kebijakan cadangan beras pemerintah ini telah teruji saat terjadinya bencana tsunami di nad dan nias pada akhir 2004 dan awal 2005, gempa bumi di yogyakarta dan jateng, kekeringan di ntt, korban banjir di kabupaten kutai, korban kebakaran di riau dan kalimantan barat. dengan cadangan beras yang terpusat pengelolaannya di bulog, maka akan memudahkan pemerintah untuk menangani situasi darurat. ini sebagai bentuk kepedulian pemerintah pusat terhadap daerah di era otonomi, sehingga hal itu dapat membuat sebagai perekat nasional dan menjaga ketahanan pangan. oleh karena itu, bulog harus terus menjaga jumlah stok beras miliknya. pada tahun 2015 lalu, stok beras milik perum bulog tercatat total pengadaan sebanyak 1,85 juta ton. pengamat pertanian siswono yudo husodo mengatakan, masyarakat akan merasa aman kalau stok beras di gudang perum.bulog ada 2 juta ton setiap saat. catatan dari sekretariat presiden sampai oktober 2016, stok beras nasional di bulog mencapai 1.980 juta ton. hal itu menyebabkan pemerintah tidak memerlukan impor beras. presiden menegaskan sampai akhir tahun 2016, tidak ada impor beras. stok beras bulog tersebut cukup sampai mei 2017. namun berdasarkan data bps di jakarta yang diolah dari sumber ditjen bea & cukai kementerian keuangan, pemerintah masih mengimpor beras tahun 2015 dan 2016. artinya sejak 2000-2016 indonesia mengimpor sebanyak 20,424 juta ton beras atau rata-rata 1,2 juta ton setiap tahun. lihat grafik impor beras di bawah. penyebab utamanya adalah produksi padi/beras yang turun; pertambahan penduduk sejak 2000; alih fungsi lahan tanaman pangan (padi), dan sebagainya. kelembagaan urusan pangan dari masa ke masa… (juli panglima saragih) 186 gambar 4. grafik perkembangan impor beras tahun 2000-2016 (ton). sumber: badan pusat statistik ri jakarta dari publikasi statistik indonesia. direktur utama perum bulog menegaskan serapan bulog sejak awal 2016 hingga saat ini sudah mencapai 870.000-ton atau 25.000 ton per hari. jika ditambah dengan stok yang dimiliki bulog saat ini, kebutuhan beras pun dipastikan aman sampai maret 2017. dalam meningkatkan stok beras, perum.bulog juga telah merealisasikan impor beras medium sesuai yang ditugaskan pemerintah. perum.bulog mengimpor beras dari thailand dan vietnam awal januari 2016 lalu mencapai 800.000-ton dan sisanya sebanyak 700.000-ton direalisasikan pada februari dan maret 2016. selain impor, perum bulog terus berusaha meningkatkan penyerapan beras dari dalam negeri. perum.bulog pada musim panen di 2016 siap menyerap beras petani sebesar 2,6 juta ton. untuk mencapai target penyerapan dalam negeri sebesar itu, perum.bulog pada april 2016 menyerap sekitar 750.000-ton beras, dan pada mei 2016 menyerap 750.000-ton beras petani. sehingga sampai mei 2016, bulog mampu menyerap 1,5 juta ton yang sebelumnya hanya 600.000 ton. dirut perum.bulog mengakui dalam penyerapan beras di dalam negeri, bulog memiliki sejumlah permasalahan di lapangan yakni; pertama, seperti perkembangan harga gabah atau beras yang masih cenderung di atas hpp. kedua, waktu panen juga tidak serentak dan cenderung mundur. sesuai inpres no.5 tahun 2015, perum.bulog hanya bisa membeli gabah kering panen (gkp) di tingkat petani sebesar rp3.700/kg dan gkg di tingkat penggilingan sebesar rp4.600/kg. sementara untuk beras medium, bulog hanya dapat membeli beras medium di gudang bulog dengan harga maksimal rp7.300/kg. sayangnya, bulog harus bersaing keras dengan pedagang yang berani membeli beras petani di atas harga rp7.300/kg. ketiga, kendala lainnya adalah space gudang di beberapa gudang divre bulog di sentra produksi beras masih minim sehingga stok beras di gudang masih tinggi dan infrastruktur pengolahan masih terbatas. untuk mengatasi kendala tersebut, perum.bulog akan meningkatkan penyediaan space gudang di divre produsen dengan melakukan move out ke divre non produsen maupun melakukan sewa gudang swasta atau bumn lain. dengan berbagai upaya tersebut, perum.bulog akan berupaya menjaga stabilisasi harga beras sampai akhir desember 2016. sinergi antara bulog, kementerian pertanian, dan kementerian perdagangan penguatan kelembagaan bulog saat ini telah didukung oleh tiga regulasi baru yang dikeluarkan pemerintah yakni uu no.18 tahun 2012 tentang pangan, pp nomor 13 tahun 2016 0 1000000 2000000 3000000 4000000 5000000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 4.751.398 1.355.666 644.733 1.805.380 1.428.505 236.867 189.616 1.406.847 289.689 250.473 687.581 2.750.476 1.810.372 472.665 844.164 300.000 1.200.000 kelembagaan urusan pangan dari masa ke masa… (juli panglima saragih) 187 tentang perusahaan umum bulog, serta perpres nomor 48 tahun 2016. walaupun saat ini juga ada kelembagaan yang mengurus pangan (sektor hulu) seperti kementerian pertanian tetapi 3 regulasi di atas merupakan payung hukum dan sebagai dasar kebijakan pangan termasuk upaya penguatan kelembagaan pangan guna memecahkan persoalan buruknya tata niaga pangan (hilir) selama ini yang menyebabkan gejolak harga pangan di pasar tidak terkendali. di sisi lain dalam hal urusan impor pangan (hilir) untuk menjaga ketahanan pangan nasional, institusi yang berkepentingan dan berwenang adalah kementerian perdagangan sebagai regulator. perum.bulog hanya sebatas pelaksana kebijakan pemerintah dalam hal ini kementerian perdagangan dan kementerian pertanian. oleh karena itu sinergi ketiga kelembagaan urusan pangan di atas harus dikembangkan dan ditingkatkan terutama dalam koordinasinya. sebab urusan pangan adalah urusan strategis negara yang menyangkut hajat hidup orang banyak dan lintas-sektor. tabel 3. produksi padi, produksi beras, dan impor beras periode 2010-2016 tahun produksi padi (ton) produksi beras (ton)* impor beras (ton) rasio impor beras terhadap produksi beras (%) 2010 66.469.394 41.729.486 687.581 1,6 2011 65.756.904 41.282.184 2.750.475 6,5 2012 69.056.126 43.353.436 1.810.372 4,2 2013 61.969.374 38.904.373 472.665 1,2 2014 70.607.231 44.327.220 844.164 1,9 2015 75.360.000 47.476.800 300.000 0,2 2016**) 79.141.000 49.067.420 1.200.000 2,4 keterangan : *) produksi beras rata-rata sebesar 62-63% dari produksi padi. **) proyeksi (angka ramalan). sumber: kebijakan impor, cadangan pangan, stabilisasi harga dan ketahanan pangan nasional berkemandirian oleh erwidodo, dalam http://www.litbang.pertanian.go.id/buku/swasembada /bab-iii-3.pdf berdasarkan analisis terhadap eskalasi harga pangan pokok seperti dijelaskan pada di atas, maka penguatan kelembagaan stabilitas harga pangan (pokok) perlu direalisasikan segera di samping tugas penyediaan (supply). penguatan atau aransemen kelembagaan pangan yang dimaksud di sini adalah difokuskan pada perum.bulog yang dapat diartikan secara struktural sebagai perwujudan dari ketentuan uu no.18 tahun 2012 tentang pangan. walaupun tidak secara tegas diatur dan disebutkan kelembagaan pangan dalam uu pangan, namun pada pasal 126-129 uu no.18 tahun 2012 telah diamanatkan secara eksplisit kepada pemerintah untuk membentuk lembaga pemerintah yang menangani bidang pangan yang berada di bawah dan bertanggung jawab kepada presiden. kelembagaan dimaksud dalam hal ini adalah perum.bulog. lembaga pangan ini diharapkan mampu melaksanakan tugas pemerintahan di bidang urusan pangan saat ini dan ke depan sesuai undang-undang. kelembagaan tentang stabilisasi harga pangan secara kultural atau secara sistem nilai, sebenarnya dapat dilaksanakan langsung oleh pemerintah melalui kementerian pertanian dan kementerian perdagangan apabila pemerintah memiliki kewibawaan kebijakan di bidang 188 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016: 168-192 pangan. terdapat lima hal penting yang perlu diketahui atau dipahami pemerintah dalam upaya penguatan kelembagaan pangan ke depan, antara lain: pertama, penemuan harga (price discovery) melalui negosiasi formal dan informal oleh pelaku ekonomi atau perusahaan; kedua, perdagangan biasa, pasar lelang, baik secara fisik, maupun secara elektronik; ketiga, formula pembentukan harga yang fair; keempat, kesepakatan harga pada kelompok produsen, distributor, dan asosiasi pedagang yang melibatkan pemerintah; kelima, keputusan khusus oleh lembaga pemerintah karena pertimbangan tertentu. implementasi kelembagaan untuk stabilitas harga pangan misalnya, memerlukan adaptasi terhadap sistem dan kebijakan non-pangan yang berlaku di indonesia. sebab kebijakan non-pangan juga turut menentukan keberhasilan operasional kelembagaan pangan, seperti perum bulog, kementerian pertanian, dan kementerian perdagangan yang secara langsung mengurusi sektor pangan. perum.bulog memang bukanlah suatu lembaga pemerintah tetapi dalam menjalankan tugasnya perum.bulog telah memiliki “power” dengan diberi kewenangan dan diskresi untuk mengurusi 9 bahan kebutuhan pokok sebagaimana diatur dalam pp no.13 tahun 2016 dan perpres no.48 tahun 2016. perpres ini diterbitkan untuk menjalankan pasal 3 pp nomor 13 tahun 2016 tentang perusahaan umum bulog. pp no.13 tahun 2016 adalah menggantikan pp no.7 tahun 2003. kewajiban perum.bulog dalam rangka stabilitas harga pangan pokok hingga di tingkat konsumen dan produsen ini sebenarnya positif. namun, tidak mudah dalam implementasinya. pertama, realitas di lapangan menunjukan bahwa bulog dan bumn pangan lainnya bukanlah pemain utama di pasar. berdasarkan informasi dari komisi pengawas persaingan usaha (kppu) bulog hanya menguasai 20-25% pangsa pasar beras di indonesia. sebaliknya, pengusaha beras menguasai sekitar 75-80% pangsa pasar. kondisi ini tentunya menempatkan bulog pada posisi yang kurang ideal dalam hal stabilisasi harga. kedua, mata rantai bisnis bahan pangan cukup panjang dan banyak melibatkan pemain. berdasarkan survei bps tahun 2015, distribusi perdagangan beras di indonesia melibatkan produsen (importir pangan dan petani), distributor, pedagang pengumpul, sub distributor, agen, sub agen, pedagang grosir, pedagang eceran, supermarket baru kemudian beras sampai ke tangan konsumen (rumah tangga dan non rumah tangga). panjangnya rantai distribusi komoditas pangan seperti beras membuat jangkauan pengawasan bulog menjadi terbatas. hal ini juga salah satu penyebab utama mahalnya harga pangan pokok seperti beras, daging sapi, daging ayam, dan gula pasir di pasar. dengan kapasitas bulog yang terbatas, akan sulit bagi bulog dapat menjamin harga hingga di tingkat konsumen sesuai kehendak pemerintah apabila bulog belum menjadi market leader. terlalu berat bila bulog dibebani kewajiban untuk memastikan kestabilan harga pangan sampai di tingkat konsumen apabila bulog tidak diperkuat terutama dari sisi finansial. implikasinya, bila harga pangan di tingkat konsumen melonjak akibat permainan harga yang dilakukan pihak di luar bulog, maka bulog berpotensi mempunyai berbagai risiko (risiko finansial, operasional, hukum, dan risiko reputasi). kita menyaksikan, misalnya, bulog terpaksa harus berurusan dengan kasus-kasus hukum yang tidak terkait langsung dengan bulog. faktanya bulog akhir-akhir ini memiliki stok beras relatif sedikit karena antara lain tidak mampu bersaing dengan pedagang pengumpul atau pengusaha penggilingan padi/gabah. hingga november 2015 misalnya volume beras di gudang bulog 1,7 juta ton terdiri dari 1,1 juta ton beras medium dan 0,6 juta ton beras kualitas premium. padahal idealnya bulog dapat memiliki stok sampai 4 juta ton setiap tahun. dampaknya harga beras dapat naik. strategi yang dilakukan oleh pengusaha/pedagang pengumpul ke petani adalah denga memberi kelembagaan urusan pangan dari masa ke masa… (juli panglima saragih) 189 pinjaman kepada petani pada saat sebelum panen raya untuk membeli saran produksi. konsekuensinya hasil panen padi petani tersebut dijual ke pengusaha penggilingan/pedagang pengumpul. dengan melihat realitas di atas bahwa pengamanan harga pangan sampai ke tingkat konsumen seyogyanya tidak menjadi tanggung jawab bulog semata. tanggung jawab bulog (dan bumn pangan lainnya) perlu disesuaikan dengan jangkauan kewenangannya. dalam hal ini, mungkin ada baiknya bila model tanggung jawab menjaga kestabilan harga pupuk (bersubsidi) dapat diterapkan pada penanganan harga pangan. pada komoditas pupuk misalnya, tanggung jawab produsen pupuk untuk menjaga kestabilan harga hanya sampai distributor. selanjutnya, harga di tingkat pengecer menjadi tanggung jawab distributor. bila terjadi penyimpangan harga oleh pengecer, distributor yang bertanggung jawab. dengan pola seperti ini, produsen pupuk bisa fokus dalam menjaga produksi pupuknya. dan bila pola ini diterapkan pada bulog (dan bumn pangan lainnya), bulog juga bisa lebih fokus pada isu-isu yang lebih strategis dalam mewujudkan ketahanan pangan secara nasional sekaligus meningkatkan kapasitas usahanya. gagasan kementerian bumn yang akan membentuk induk perusahaan (holding) bumn sektor pangan baik yang bergerak di sektor produksi maupun perdagangan (distribusi) adalah baik. bertindak sebagai holding company bumn adalah perum.bulog yang akan membawahi pt. sang hyang seri, pt. pertani, pt. berdikari, pt. perikanan nusantara, pt. perusahaan perdagangan indonesia, dan pt. bhanda ghara reksa. di lihat dari sisi korporasi, konsep holding bumn ini positif bagi peningkatan kapabilitas bumn pangan. namun, yang perlu dicatat bahwa pembentukan holding company ini merupakan salah satu dari keseluruhan rangkaian upaya mewujudkan ketahanan pangan. di luar itu, konsep holding bumn pangan ini juga perlu disinkronkan dengan keberadaan kelembagaan pangan yang seharusnya dibentuk sesuai dengan mandat dari uu no. 18 tahun 2012. selain pembenahan secara korporasi, pembenahan kelembagaan pangan lainnya juga perlu dilakukan. untuk mendukung ketahanan pangan dan stabilisasi harga, diperlukan perbaikan infrastruktur dan tata niaga pangan. pembenahan kelembagaan basis produksi (kementan) dan tata niaga pangan (kemendag) saat ini dirasakan masih kurang memadai dan kurang koordinasi. selain itu, rantai tata niaga beberapa komoditas pangan di luar beras masih belum efektif. masih banyak hal yang memang perlu dibenahi dalam upaya untuk mewujudkan ketahanan pangan dan stabilitas harga pangan. perlu pembenahan secara konsisten terhadap seluruh aspek terkait dengan upaya mewujudkan ketahanan pangan dan stabilitas harga, baik dari sisi kapabilitas korporasi, infrastruktur, regulasi hulu dan hilir, dan kelembagaan pangan akan dapat mempercepat upaya tersebut. dari sisi hulu, kementerian pertanian harus dapat menjamin peningkatan produksi pangan pokok guna memenuhi kebutuhan pasar. apabila produksi pangan turun maka pasokan akan berkurang sehingga pada akhirnya akan meningkatkan harga. implikasinya akan mendorong untuk dilakukannya impor guna memenuhi kekurangan kebutuhan pasar seperti yang terjadi pada sebagian besar komoditas pangan seperti daging sapi, gula kristal putih, kedelai, dan lain-lain. konsep ketahanan pangan memang tidak mempersoalkan impor, tetapi naiknya harga impor pangan justru akan mengancam ketahanan pangan karena persoalan mahalnya harga pangan impor di pasar domestik. dalam hal impor pangan, regulator adalah kemendag. oleh sebab itu kemendag perlu berkoordinasi dengan kementan dan bulog mengenai kapan dilakukan impor dan komoditas apa yang perlu diimpor. ketersediaan pangan sama pentingnya dengan menjaga stabilitas harga pangan. tiga pilar pangan di atas tetap menjadi instrumen 190 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016: 168-192 dalam memformulasikan regulasi di sektor pangan baik di sisi hulu maupun hilir. menurut lokot zein nasution, apabila bulog berperan sebagai penyeimbang dan pelaksana impor untuk pengontrol harga pangan maka pengembalian peran dan fungsi bulog tersebut tidak dapat dilakukan jika statusnya sebagai bumn karena memiliki dwifungsi sebagai tugas publik dan fungsi bisnis. oleh karena itu perlu mereformasi status bulog menjadi semacam badan layan umum (blu) yang dibentuk untuk memberikan pelayan kepada publik berupa penyediaan barang dan jasa yang dijual tanpa untung tetapi tetap memegang prinsip kinerja organisasi dan produktivitas. pandangan nasution di atas tidak sepenuhnya benar karena bukan status bulog yang menjadi persoalan dalam pencapaian ketahanan pangan, tetapi bagaimana sinergi dan koordinasi yang baik antar-kelembagaan pangan yang ada baik dari sisi hulu maupun sisi hilir. apabila di sisi hulu (supply) terganggu karena produksi pangan yang berkurang maka hal ini menjadi tanggungjawab kementan karena kebutuhan pasar tidak terpenuhi dari dalam negeri sehingga impor harus dilakukan guna menjaga ketahanan pangan. tetapi dalam implementasi kebijakan impor, maka bulog harus diberi kewenangan penuh dan menjadi pelaksana tunggal impor sehingga akan tercipta harga pangan yang stabil di pasar. bulog sebagai pelaksana tunggal impor memiliki power untuk penetrasi ke pasar domesik yang kekurangan supply sebagaimana yang pernah dilakukan masa orde baru terhadap 9 bahan pokok. padahal status bulog belum menjadi badan usaha dan tidak dapat disebut sebagai badan layanan umum. sampai kapan pun apabila pemerintah tidak bisa mengantisipasi dan mengatasi lonjakan kebutuhan pangan dalam negeri, maka harga pangan akan cepat meningkat yang pada akhirnya dapat menyebabkan inflasi. ketahanan pangan-pun menjadi terancam tidak terkecuali terhadap komoditas beras. simpulan perubahan status, tugas, dan wewenang lembaga pangan yang sering terjadi sejak kemerdekaan sampai saat ini merupakan salah satu penyebab utama upaya ketahanan pangan sering tidak tercapai. kuatnya rezim pemerintahan masa orde baru dengan pemberian kewenangan penuh kepada bulog serta dukungan kebijakan pertanian dan perdagangan, telah membuahkan relatif hasil stabilnya harga pangan sejak 1983-1997 karena sistim dan tata niaga pangan terjaga dengan baik serta koordinasi antarlembaga pangan yang juga baik. pergantian rezim pemerintahan paska orde baru pencapaian ketahanan pangan tidak semakin baik bahkan menurun antara lain disebabkan oleh perubahan tugas dan wewenang bulog terutama adanya ―intervensi‖ dari imf dan bank dunia yang membatasi wewenang dan tanggungjawab bulog hanya sebagai stabilisator harga pangan beras saja padahal pemerintah telah melahirkan uu nomor 7 tahun 1996 tentang pangan yang intinya bahwa pemeirntah bertanggungjawab menjaga ketahanan pangan. sejak 2003 dengan perubahan status bulog dari lembaga pemerintah non-departemen menjadi bumn berbentuk perusahaan umum, perum.bulog masih dihadapkan pada dilemma tugas dan fungsi yakni di satu sisi menjalankan tugas publik (public sevice obligation) yang ditugaskan negara, tetapi di sisi lain perum.bulog juga dituntut untuk mengejar keuntungan (fungsi bisnis). dalam realita paska perum, bulog masih tidak mampu untuk meredam gejolak harga pangan di luar control harga beras, karena antara lain kurangnya koordinasi dan tidak adanya sinergi antara bulog, kementan, dan kemendag dalam urusan pangan pokok. hal ini juga menyebabkan masih panjangnya mata rantai tata niaga pangan sehingga mengancam stabilitas harga beberapa komoditas pangan pokok. kelembagaan urusan pangan dari masa ke masa… (juli panglima saragih) 191 status bulog sebagai perum merubah kedudukan/tata kelola dari lembaga yang bertanggungjawab kepada presiden menjadi perusahaan publik di bawah menteri negara bumn. konsekuensi logisnya adalah perum diperlakukan sama dengan perusahaan bisnis swasta. prinsip akuntasi umum berlaku. oleh karena itu, prinsip efisiensi dan manajemen usaha yang baik seperti good corporate governance diperlukan agar perum.bulog dapat eksis dan bersaing dalam usaha komoditas pangan. perum perlu dikembangkan kearah yang lebih luas cakupannya yakni masuk dalam perdagangan bahan pangan secara komersial. dengan demikian, bulog mampu mengendalikan harga pangan bukan dengan menimbun atau menjual cadangan bahan pangan (beras), dengan dinamisasi dan normalisasi perdagangan. sedangkan pemilihan bentuk lembaga pangan haruslah dari perspektif yang lebih luas yaitu optimasi investasi negara dan ketahanan pangan nasional. dengan perspektif ini, pilihan tidak dapat ditetapkan dengan melihat unjuk kerja lembaga yang sudah ada, tetapi lebih pada kebutuhan terhadap lembaga tersebut. perum bulog perlu melakukan self-assessment dalam perspektif kepentingan nasional. pilihan akhir ditentukan oleh kesiapan lembaga yang sudah ada, serta peran dan fungsi yang harus dikerjakan. daftar pustaka kementerian pertanian ri, (2015), kinerja satu tahun kementerian pertanian: oktober 2014-oktober 2015, penerbit kementerian pertanian ri jakarta. pasandaran, effendi, dkk, (2015), memperkuat kemampuan swasembada pangan, penerbit iaard press, balitbang kementan ri, jakarta, hal.270. prawiro, radius, (2004), pergulatan indonesia membangun ekonomi, penerbit pt.primamedia pustaka, jakarta. suksmantri, eko.,dkk, (2012), bulog dalam bingkai ketahanan pangan, penerbit cv.padma publisher,jakarta. bantacut, tajuddin, (2014), agenda pembangunan pertanian dan ketahanan pangan 2014-2019 (the agenda of agricultural development and food security 2014-2019), jurnal pangan, vol.23, no.3 tahun 2014, penerbit pusat riset dan perencanaan strategis perum.bulog, jakarta, hal.285. --------------------------, (2008), menjadikan bulog lembaga pangan yang handal, jurnal pangan, vo.17 no.1 tahun 2008, hal. 77. hasibuan, ahmad ir.surya, (2015), kebijakan pangan pasca ratifikasi agreement on agriculture (aoa) wto, jurnal politik dan masalah pembangunan, vol.11, no.01 tahun 2015, penerbit universitas nasional (unas),jakarta, hal.1638-1639. nasution, lokot zein, (2016), reposisi peran dan fungsi bulog dalam tata niaga pangan, jurnal kajian, vol.21 no.1 maret 2016, penerbit pusat penelitian bk dpr ri, jakarta, hal. 68-69. suswono, dkk, (2009), strategi peningkatan daya saing perum bulog, jurnal manajemen dan agribisnis, vol.6 no.2 oktober 2009, penerbit institut pertanian bogor (ipb), hal.94. artikel online alur pengadaan beras/gabah oleh perum.bulog dari petani, dalam www.bulog.co.id. bulog bersaing dengan pedagang beli beras,dalam http://agroindonesia.co.id/, diakses 14 desember 2016. bulog kehilangan momentum dalam pengadaan beras, dalam http://print.kompas.com /baca/ekonomi/sektorriil/2015/08/27/bulog-kehilanganmomentum-dalam-pengadaan-beras, diakses 13 desember 2016. harian kontan, 3 maret 2015. http://www.bulog.co.id/ http://agroindonesia.co.id/index.php/2016/05/10/bulog-bersaing-dengan-pedagang-beli-beras/ http://agroindonesia.co.id/index.php/2016/05/10/bulog-bersaing-dengan-pedagang-beli-beras/ http://agroindonesia.co.id/ 192 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 17, nomor 2, oktober 2016: 168-192 jokowi pastikan stok pangan nasional aman hingga mei 2017, dalam http://nasional.kompas.com., diakses 13 desember 2016. national food authority of philippine, dalam http://www.nfa.gov.ph/buying-sellingprice., diakses 15 desember 2016. pemerintah akui stabilitas harga pangan belum tercapai, dalam http://www.republika.co.id/berita/ekon 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http://www.pertanian.go.id/file/renstra_2015-2019.pdf http://www.rappler.com/indonesia/120494-kebijakan-pangan-pemerintah-jokowi http://www.rappler.com/indonesia/120494-kebijakan-pangan-pemerintah-jokowi http://www.rappler.com/indonesia/120494-kebijakan-pangan-pemerintah-jokowi jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 21 nomor 2, oktober 2020 article type: research paper the impact of working mothers’ bargaining power on their children's human capital in indonesia ni komang widya anggaraini1* and ni putu wiwin setyari2 abstract: education is one of the strongest instruments owned by society to reduce poverty and vulnerability. this is because knowledge and skills are acquired through education. thus, increasing productivity and creating access to employment opportunities. so that income will increase along with the increase in education. the most strategic target in developing quality human resources is children. there is an empirical study of the effect on household resource allocation where household decisions are influenced by the power that individuals have in the household. the distribution of power within the household can affect the level of spending on education for each child. this study aims to determine the impact of working mothers on their children's human capital in indonesia and the differences in the influence of relative education and the relative income of working mother on children's human capital in indonesia. the analysis technique used is the ordinary least square (ols) and chow-test to determine the difference in the effect of the relative education and relative income of working mothers on their children's human capital in indonesia. using ifls5 data, we found out that the impact of working mothers has a significant effect on children's human capital in indonesia and there is a significant difference where the income of working mothers has a greater influence on children's human capital in indonesia. keywords: impact; working power of women; children's human capital; ols; chow-test jel classification: p46; j24; o15; d31 introduction development refers to activities carried out by a country or region that aims to develop its people’s life quality (rustiadi, saefulhakim, & panuju 2011). there are several parameters to measure the success of an area's development, one of which is the human development index (hdi) (maulana & bowo, 2013). hdi is a measure to see the impact of regional development performance, which has a very broad dimension because it shows the population quality of an area in terms of life expectancy, education, and a decent standard of living (melliana & zain, 2013). the overall welfare level can be seen from the hdi as a measuring tool because it can describe economic and non-economic factors (aji, syarifudin, & ishak , 2014). affiliation: 1,2 department of economics, faculty of economics and business, udayana university, bali, indonesia. *correspondence: widyaanggaraini@gmail.com this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.21.2.5044 citation: anggaraini, n. k. w., & setyari, n. p. w. (2020). the impact of working mothers’ bargaining power on their children's human capital in indonesia. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 21(2), 235-248. article history received: 07 aug 2020 reviewed: 26 aug 2020 revised: 05 sep 2020 accepted: 07 oct 2020 mailto:widyaanggaraini@gmail.com http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/9523 http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp anggaraini & setyari the impact of working mothers’ bargaining power on their children's human capital … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 236 from united nations development program (undp)’s perspective (2018), human development is formulated to enlarge people’s choices and the level achieved from these efforts. the undp concept of human development contains four elements: productivity, equity, sustainability, and empowerment. undp data (2018) revealed that indonesia's progress in each hdi indicator put indonesia in the high human development category, and indonesia was in 111th position out of 189 countries and regions. the increase of the indonesian human development index is a positive signal for indonesia's human resources development. the increase of human resources can be said as a non-physical investment or better known as human resource investment. it is the number of funds spent and the opportunity to earn income during the investment process. such investment is called human capital (simanjuntak, 1985). thirty years ago, the term human capital was known when gary s. becker, a nobel laureate in economics, wrote a book entitled human capital in 1964. the human capital theory proposed by becker (1975: 17) explains that a person can increase his income by improving education. income increases with age, where the increase is also directly proportional to individual expertise due to increased education (nathan, 1989). it can be interpreted that the knowledge and skills possessed will increase to enhance one's productivity. it is the basis for human capital assumptions. besides, the most strategic target in developing quality human resources is children. children as part of family members and the next generation are essential to increase human resources in national development. it can be achieved through education. weiss, shanteau, and harries (2006) and todaro and smith (2011) stated that education is one of the most powerful instruments a society has, to reduce poverty and vulnerability. meanwhile, the issue of gender emerged as a deconstruction of the patriarchal culture that had hegemonized society's paradigm for at least three thousand years. gender is more emphasized on the differences in roles and functions that exist and is made by society. gender differences often lead to various inequalities and injustices for women. these forms of gender injustice are not by human rights, so in 1993, the united nations made a declaration on the elimination of violence against women. in indonesia, the government has worked towards realizing gender equality through presidential instruction no. 9 of 2000 concerning gender equality in national development. besides, the world bank in the book engendering development asserted that gender equality is a major development issue that will strengthen the country's ability to develop, reduce poverty, and run government effectively (sofiani, 2009). in fact, the times' progress is often accompanied by information development and the level of human intellectual ability, so women's role in life continues to change to respond to the challenges of the times and improve household welfare. according to mangkuprawira and vitalaya (2007), women's decisions to work are not only motivated by economic factors but also due to knowledge skills and self-actualization and the desire to gain inner satisfaction. it is caused by the general assumption that the world of work is a world of men so that women will feel that they can sit equal with men by self-actualizing themselves through work; however, women cannot be separated from their nature. women have the opportunity to appear in a world, which is traditionally considered the world of men because of women's movements and studies (saskara, 2018). anggaraini & setyari the impact of working mothers’ bargaining power on their children's human capital … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 237 the rise of working homemakers creates the formation of a new role for women that is different from normal gender roles, which becomes a critical study. according to suroto (1992: 15), household welfare can be achieved through additional income obtained by household members, both wife and husband, outside the household life. once working mothers carry out household activities and public sector activities, they will face conditions where their household economic role becomes increasingly important. at the same time, women get higher formal education opportunities, which enable them to enter competitive employment. it is difficult to identify a causal relationship between maternal educational attainment and children's outcomes because mothers who have higher education levels or return to school tend to be different from mothers who do not (brooks-gunn, guo, & furstenberg, 1993; felmlee, 1988; leadbeater, 1996; way & leadbeater, 1999). further, the change in women’s role initially led to allegations of changes in household relationship patterns. changes in women’s household roles occur once they work and generate income, creating changes in the men’s roles (nurhamida, 2013). working mothers have more power in decision-making related to important household decisions, where men whose wives work will be more involved in carrying out household tasks, which tend to be more egalitarian. the power that men (fathers) and women (mothers) have in the household can have different impacts on children's welfare. this study aims to determine the impact of working mother’s bargaining power. bargaining power in this study was proxied by women’s household decision making power over their spouses. it was shown by the relative education and relative income of working mother to children's human capital in indonesia, where children's human capitals were seen from children's education, namely from the years of schooling. several empirical studies in the framework of intrahousehold resource allocation that have been conducted in indonesia have focused on education as an indicator of welfare. there are various other indicators in measuring children's human capital related to education. the residence location, namely the demographics of the area in a village or a city, is very different, where generally children who live in cities have a better quality of human capital than those who live in villages due to advances in technology and information. apart from access, in this case, the distance from the residence to the school and vice versa from the school to the residence also affects children's education, where the farther the access from home to school, the lower the child's human capital. also, the mother's and father’s age and the number of family members will affect the consumption patterns and household income, including the child's education, where the more the number of individuals in the family, the more the spending. the imbalance of resource allocation among children is a firm conclusion in several studies that specifically discuss the effects of birth order on intrahousehold resource allocation. the effect of birth order on resource allocation is ambiguous. the theory (biology, psychology, and culture) suggests a negative effect of birth order with resource allocation, indicating that the eldest child will benefit more than younger siblings (ejrnaes & pörtner, 2004). meanwhile, empirically, the relative order obtained has a positive impact, meaning that children born later get a better resource allocation than their siblings born earlier (ejrnaes & pörtner, 2004; horton 1988). therefore, indicators are used as control variables in seeing how women's power affects children's human capital. anggaraini & setyari the impact of working mothers’ bargaining power on their children's human capital … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 238 many studies have included measures that would be considered indicators of women's power, such as ownership of assets (beegle, frankenberg, & thomas, 2001; quisumbing & maluccio, 1994; doss 2006; friedemann-sa´nchez, 2006; setyari, widanta, & purbadharmaja, 2018), which provide empirical evidence of the influence on resource allocation household. however, this framework has not been explored much to see the impact of resource allocation within the household on household decisions, especially on working women's bargaining power regarding decisions about their children's education level. in this regard, the combination of short-term and long-term assistance is the government's strategy to sustainably lift the recipients of program keluarga harapan (conditional cash transfer, pkh) out of poverty (nazara & rahayu, 2013). the government has also issued several programs, namely bantuan langsung tunai (unconditional cash transfer, blt) and bantuan langsung sementara masyarakat (another type of unconditional cash transfer, blsm). these programs, especially regarding education, will impact improving the quality of children's human capital, where households that have children and receive the programs can send their children to a higher level of education. in this study, indicators, including residence location, access to education, pkh provided by the government, assets, mother's age, father's age, number of family members, and childbirth order, were used as control variables. moreover, the level of children's welfare cannot be separated from the mother's role. because by using her abilities, a mother can allocate resources owned by the household. it depends on the mother's amount of power in the household to carry out her preferences (doss, 2013). therefore, the measure of power is crucial to do, especially mothers, to allocate resources in the household, which will impact their children’s welfare. given that women’s role today and in the past is very different, where the progress of the era is often accompanied by the development of information and the level of human intellectual ability, women’s role in life continues to change to respond to the challenges of the times and improve household welfare. when women who work not only carry out household activities but have already carried out activities in the public sector, they will face conditions where their roles will be increasingly complex. as well, children who are the younger generation are expected to become the nation's successor and the ideals of national development. in connection with these two things, working mothers who have power in household decision-making will impact children’s human capital in indonesia. research method this research was conducted in indonesia because it used ifls micro data. in this case, the indonesia family life survey (ifls) or survey of the aspects of indonesian household life (sakerti) is the most comprehensive longitudinal household survey ever conducted in indonesia. it is carried out and collected by an organization or institution called rand. the ifls data employed in this research was ifls5, which was passed down between late october 2014 and late april 2015 with remote tracking until the end of august 2015, adding the following modules beyond those used in ifls4. this paper utilized ifls-5 data, anggaraini & setyari the impact of working mothers’ bargaining power on their children's human capital … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 239 with criteria from respondents: households where working mothers had school children aged 6-18 and had a life partner. data analysis methods used in this study were ordinary least square (ols) and chowtest. the impact of the working mother’s power (x) on children's human capital in indonesia (y) could be formulated by the following equation: ŷi=β0 + β1ɵi+βk xki....................................................................(1) information: ŷi = children's human capital β0.β1 .βk = regression coefficient of each ɵ1, xk ɵ = the relative power of working mother as measured by the relative education and relative income of working mother against her partner xk = control variable (x3,x4, x5, x6, x7, x8, x9, x10, x11, x12, x13, x14, x15) however, at the time of testing, there would be two models, namely: ŷi = β0 + β 11 x11i + βk xki...........................................................(2) information: x11 = the relative education of the working mother ŷi = β0 + β 11 x12i +βk xki............................................................(3) information: x12 = relative income of the working mother the test to determine the difference in the effect between relative education and working mothers' relative income on children's human capital in indonesia employed the chowtest. chow-test is a tool to test the equality of coefficients or the coefficient similarity test, and this test was found by gregory chow. the chow test can be used to detect whether there are differences between groups (wooldridge, 2016). the standard f-test could be used for this purpose in an unlimited model that included the interaction between the dummy and all variables. if the value of f count> f table or if sig f <0.1, then the null hypothesis is rejected and concludes that there is a different influence between the power of working mother as proxied by working mother’s relative education and relative income on children’s human capital in indonesia. result and discussion several studies that have focused on the distribution of power in households to children's education include klugman, hanmer, twigg, hasan, mccleary-sills, and santamaria (2012) and wong (2012), where the distribution of power in household decision-making, especially for women, has been shown to improve welfare by increasing human capital in the household. from the ifls wave, four data used in this study consisted of variables of anggaraini & setyari the impact of working mothers’ bargaining power on their children's human capital … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 240 relative income, relative education, location, pkh, age of working mother, age of spouse, age of children, number of family members, birth order, and child status. however, by making the test more restricted/increasing the variables, namely the variables of assets and access, there was a decrease in the number of observations. in this study, 2,301 people were categorized as children, and the working mother's average age was 37 years old. table 1 is a summary of the descriptive statistics of all variables used in this study. educ_ar2014 is children’s human capital in indonesia, namely children's education, measured by the number of years they have studied. this variable was used as an outcome variable. meanwhile, relative_educ and relative_income are the projected impact of working mothers' power with relative education and relative income against their partners and include several indicators used to control the impact of women's power at work on children's human capital in indonesia. table 1 descriptive statistics variable obs mean std. dev. min max human capital 2.355 3.677707 2.475743 0 11 relative_educ 2.355 1.220171 1.090919 .0833333 12 relative_income 2.355 21.49927 25.9138 0 100 location 2.355 .5027601 .5000986 0 1 the dummy variable (1 for urban, 0 for others) blsm 2.355 .1626327 .3691086 0 1 the dummy variable (1 for blsm recipient, 0 for others) pkh 2.355 .0454352 .208301 0 1 the dummy variable (1 for pkh recipients, 0 others) blt 2.355 .1757962 .3807275 0 1 the dummy variable (1 for blt recipients, 0 for others) women’s age 2.355 37.2259 6.529126 21 67 partner’s age 2.355 41.7617 7.440428 24 79 children’s age 2.355 10.06879 2.467706 6 14 hhsize1 2.355 4.778344 1.32621 3 13 birth order 2.355 1.512527 .7105171 1 6 biological 2.355 .9774947 .1483515 0 1 the dummy variable (1 for biological children, 0 for others) asset 2.355 .2919089 .4688285 0 19.8 access 2.355 12.969 18.71715 1 600 source: ifls4, processed data table 2 shows the regression results carried out with the help of stata14. these results then became the basis for describing the independent variables on the dependent variable in this study. the research results on the impact of working mothers' power on children's human capital in indonesia can be explained in table 2. anggaraini & setyari the impact of working mothers’ bargaining power on their children's human capital … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 241 table 2 regression results on the impact of working mothers on children’s human capital in indonesia variables (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) bols_r bols_ur bols_ur1 bols_ur2 bols_ur3 rel_educ2014 -0.0555 0.0184 0.0232* 0.0267 0.0208 (0.0436) (0.140) (0.0139) (0.0237) (0.0198) rel_inc2014 0.00898*** -0.000780 -0.000807 -9.11e-05 -0.00113 (0.00161) (0.000526) (0.000524) (0.000946) (0.000794) location 0.136*** 0.121*** 0.142*** 0.0713* (0.0288) (0.0288) (0.0502) (0.0421) access 0.000836 (0.00159) blsm -0.105*** 0.0201 0.0152 (0.0406) (0.0774) (0.0639) pkh -0.155** -0.0175 0.0422 0.0987 (0.0634) (0.0660) (0.129) (0.104) blt -0.200*** -0.220*** -0.133** (0.0399) (0.0764) (0.0641) asset 0.0693* 0.0739* (0.0376) (0.0379) women’s age 0.00661* 0.00616* 0.00419 0.00483 (0.00346) (0.00345) (0.00633) (0.00534) partner’s age -0.00217 -0.00163 -0.00709 -0.00241 (0.00297) (0.00296) (0.00549) (0.00460) children’s age 0.922*** 0.924*** 0.928*** 0.945*** (0.00489) (0.00488) (0.00883) (0.00959) hhsize -0.0581*** -0.0521*** -0.0497** 0.000327 (0.0107) (0.0107) (0.0214) (0.0195) birth order -0.0592** -0.0485** -0.0183 -0.104*** (0.0238) (0.0238) (0.0441) (0.0361) biological 0.357*** 0.371*** 0.237 0.215 (0.0742) (0.0739) (0.149) (0.134) constant 4.543*** -5.886*** -5.916*** -5.597*** -6.004*** (0.0740) (0.117) (0.116) (0.221) (0.193) prob. f 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 r-squared 0.005 0.899 0.900 0.900 0.903 source: ifls5 processed with stata. standard errors in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 the location variable had a significant positive effect on children's human capital in the unrestricted, unrestricted1, unrestricted2, and unrestricted3 tests. the residence location, namely the demographics of the area in the village or the city, was very different. generally, children who lived in cities had better quality human capital than those who lived in villages because of advancements in technology and information. conversely, the access variable, in this case, the distance from residence to school and vice versa from school to residence, did not affect children's human capital. it signified that the farther or closer access from home to school did not influence the child's human capital. besides, government program assistance had a significant negative effect, showing blsm with a anggaraini & setyari the impact of working mothers’ bargaining power on their children's human capital … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 242 coefficient value of -0.105 in the unrestricted test1, pkh of -0,155 in the unrestricted test, and blt of -0.133 in the unrestricted test3. the negative results indicated that government assistance was still distributed inequality. asset ownerships also had a significant positive effect, where the coefficient value showed 0.0693 and 0.0793 on the unrestricted2 and unrestricted3 test. it disclosed that the share of assets during the marriage would increase women's bargaining power in decision-making related to children's education. the proportion of power would increase between women and men, depending on their age. from the results obtained, women's age had a significant positive effect with a coefficient value of 0.0061 for unrestricted1. it denoted that women's power increased according to their age. however, the partner's age did not impact the child's human capital, with a coefficient value of -0.0024. meanwhile, children's age had a significant positive effect on children's human capital, with a coefficient value of 0.945 for unrestricted3. it indicated that the higher the child's age, the higher the education level taken according to their age. the coefficient value of the number of family members of -0.0497 had a significant negative effect on children's human capital in the unrestricted2 test. the negative results indicated that the greater number of family members, the lower the value. it was because the greater the number of family members, the more expenditure in the household. besides, the birth order variable revealed that the smaller the child had, the greater the opportunity to get a higher education, whereas the child's birth order had a negative effect and a significant result with a coefficient of -0.104 in unrestricted3. it suggested that there was an imbalance between siblings. it could be due to differences in school achievement that was relatively lower than the national standard as the age increased. moreover, biological children's status had a significant positive effect, with a coefficient value of 0.371 for unrestricted1. it confirmed that biological children status had the opportunity to receive higher education than other children's status. based on the regression results obtained, it could be seen that r-square (r2) was 0.903 or 90.3 percent. it showed that children's human capital in indonesia was influenced by the impact of women's power to work by 90.6 percent, while 9.4 percent was influenced by other variables not found in the equation or research model used. the chow-test was used to test whether there was a significant difference between working mothers' relative education and relative income on the children’s human capital in indonesia. from table 3, by testing each of the interest variables in children's human capital, it revealed that the interest variables, namely working women’s relative education and relative income, partially did not impact children's human capital in indonesia. it implied that power could not be reflected only by a few indicators. in other words, each variable could not stand alone, and the partner's power also influenced the household's decisions. anggaraini & setyari the impact of working mothers’ bargaining power on their children's human capital … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 243 table 3 results of testing the effect of working mother's relative education and relative income on children's human capital in indonesia -1 2 variables bols2 bols2 relative_educ -0.00575 (0.0156) relative_income -0.00111 (0.000794) location 0.0815** 0.0679 (0.0349) (0.0419) acess 0.000323 0.000853 (0.000881) (0.00159) blsm 0.0432 0.0156 (0.0538) (0.0639) pkh 0.0201 0.101 (0.0861) (0.104) blt -0.184*** -0.131** (0.0534) (0.0641) asset 0.0791** 0.0739* (0.0367) (0.0379) women’s age 0.000863 0.00465 (0.00444) (0.00534) partner’s age -0.00269 -0.00204 (0.00385) (0.00458) children’s age 0.943*** 0.944*** (0.00798) (0.00959) hhsize -0.00463 0.000211 (0.0155) (0.0195) birth order -0.0932*** -0.104*** (0.0295) (0.0361) biological 0.0672 0.222* (0.119) (0.134) constant -5.681*** -5.989*** (0.169) (0.193) r-squared 0.900 0.902 source: ifls5 processed with stata. standard errors in parentheses *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1 table 4 results of chow-test f( 1, 1656) = 456.93 prob > f = 0.0000 source: ifls processed with stata. the chow-test results in table 4 obtained a ftest value of 456,93 and a significance value of 0.0000, which was smaller than 0.1 or 10 percent alpha, then h0 was rejected. it indicated a significant difference between the effect of working mothers' relative education and relative income on children's human capital in indonesia. the magnitude of this difference in influence, namely working mother’s relative income, had an effect of anggaraini & setyari the impact of working mothers’ bargaining power on their children's human capital … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 244 -0.001. it was higher than the working mother’s relative education, which had an effect of -0.005 on children's human capital in indonesia. the effect of working mothers' relative education on children's human capital in indonesia the projected impact of women's power at work with working mothers' relative education positively and significantly impacted children's human capital in indonesia. children's human capital was strongly influenced by the example of a mother in the household. in this case, the entry of women into public employment causes a dual role for women, where domestic work, which was originally a woman's nature, has now developed with emancipation. education of women in emancipation is now essential, so women should get the education to the highest level. the level of women's education will undoubtedly affect their power in decision-making in the household, such as their children's education. the tendency is that the higher the level of women’s education, the more likely it is that decisions taken can be used as a reference in the household. the higher the relative education of working mothers than their partners, the more the children's human capital will increase. it means that a more educated working mother will provide higher achievement compared to their educated partners. before, qian (2008) used educational attainment as an outcome for an analysis of power in china. besides, brown (2006) found that more educated parents tended to invest more education in their children. furthermore, female decision-makers' marginal effect on education investment was greater than that of male decision-makers. the effect of working mother's relative income on children's human capital in indonesia working mothers' relative income had a positive and significant effect on children's human capital in indonesia. the income earned by working mothers could give women a direct bargaining position. if women worked to control the money they made, they might have the ability to influence outcomes that required spending directly. working outside the home and earning an income could provide bargaining power in other forms. a working mother who had relatively more income than their partners would have more power in making household decisions. women's employment and income have been positively associated with children's outcomes and their well-being. this study's results are in line with the results of qian's (2008) study, which revealed an increase in women's income relative to their partner increased girls' survival rate in china. the working mother's income gives them direct bargaining power and control over income as a financial resource to fund decisions, such as school expenses (doss, 2013). higher incomes also increase women's bargaining power in negotiations. anggaraini & setyari the impact of working mothers’ bargaining power on their children's human capital … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 245 differences in the effect of the impact of working mothers on children's human capital in indonesia the working mothers’ relative education and relative income had a different effect, where working mothers’ income had a greater influence on children’s human capital in indonesia than the working mothers’ relative education. it was related to working mothers' ability to directly decide the income allocation they earned themselves compared to their partners' household income. basically, children's human capital is influenced not only by one party, mother, or father. it means the decision is often collective or decided together. however, the results showed that if a mother worked and earned her own money, she would allocate money directly to increase her child's human capital compared to the money she got from her partner. this study's results are not in line with several studies, where the power of women who have dual roles as mothers and work is not followed by an increase in women's power in the household. nurhamida (2013), in her research that aimed to determine power in marriage among working mothers and homemakers, asserted that from the overall data, the power of men who had wives as working mother remained higher so that they had the decision to be involved limitedly in the division of household duties. the power of men in the household remains even though women work. women who have incomes experience only a slight increase in power and continue to work on the unprofessional division of domestic labor. some studies have measured women's power without considering husbands' power, such as handa's (1996) study using mother's education as a proxy for women's power. the result revealed no significant impact on the highest level of children’s education in femaleheaded households in jamaica. however, considering the significant effects of maternal education in male-headed households, it suggested that women's relative strength could play a role in children's outcomes. maternal education could show a direct effect of their schooling on children's educational outcomes (leibowitz, 1974), but did not reflect the indirect effect of their relative ability to negotiate with fathers on resource allocation in household households (doss, 2013). conclusion the children’s human capital in indonesia was influenced by the power possessed by working mothers, where the power of working mothers as proxied by the relative education and relative income had a significant effect. the higher the relative education of working mothers than their partners, the more the children's human capital would increase. it denoted that a more educated working mother would provide higher achievement compared to their educated partners. meanwhile, working mothers' relative income provided direct bargaining power and control over income as a financial resource to fund decisions, such as children's school expenses, so that the higher the relative income of working mothers, the children's human capital would increase with higher educational attainment. anggaraini & setyari the impact of working mothers’ bargaining power on their children's human capital … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2020 | 246 there was a significant difference between working mothers' projected relative power, relative education, and income to the children’s human capital in indonesia. the relative income of working mothers had a greater influence on children's human capital in indonesia. it was related to working women's ability to directly decide the income allocation they earned themselves compared to their partners' household income. the children’s human capital in indonesia was influenced not only by the power of working mothers but also by their partners' power. the test results' implication can be used as a basis for future actions, both in making a policy related to children's human capital, namely in children's education and intrahousehold. this research does not escape from various shortcomings and limitations. this study’s limitation is the lack of variables used, where the impact of women's power at work can be measured or proxied by various indicators; however, in this study, women's power to work was proxied only by two indicators: relative education and relative income. human capital, in this case, children's human capital, only used the children's education indicators. we suggest future research to add more relevant indicators to measure the impact of working mothers' bargaining power and indicators related to human capital. references aji, s., syarifudin, d., & ishak, r. f. 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(2016). introductory econometrics: a modern approach, sixth ed. boston: cengage learning. https://www.ohchr.org/en/professionalinterest/pages/violenceagainstwomen.aspx https://www.ohchr.org/en/professionalinterest/pages/violenceagainstwomen.aspx https://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/blog.html https://doi.org/10.1017/s0954579499002096 https://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.529 https://doi.org/10.1080/08039410.2012.722769 jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 22 nomor 2, oktober 2021 article type: research paper four dimensions of women’s empowerment in tourism: case study of indrayanti beach, yogyakarta, indonesia arisanti ayu wardhani and indah susilowati* abstract: the emergence of sustainable tourism has led to a new tourism concept called ecotourism. ecotourism has the principle of environmental preservation and the local communities’ welfare produces a significant impact on indigenous people in the area. this is because the local community is involved in managing sustainable tourism. women who are part of the community have the same opportunities as men in accessing opportunities from ecotourism activities. based on empirical research results, tourism activities create alternative jobs for women to be more independent economically, including the fact that the participation of women in tourism activities has a positive impact on them socially. empowering women is an important part of community welfare efforts in the scope of tourism, so that women’s empowerment is important in the tourism development process. this study aims to analyze the ongoing empowerment of women and what factors are the drivers and barriers to empowerment in indrayanti beach as one of the leading destinations in gunungkidul regency as seen from four dimensions (economic, social, political, and psychological). the mixed-method approach has been used in research. it was found that the level of women’s empowerment in indrayanti beach had shown a good enough score with the highest average score in the economic dimension, namely 7.64, where women economically have received a positive impact from indrayanti beach. the lowest average score is on the political dimension, with a value of 5.82. women politically still do not have awareness if their role is important for the sustainability of indrayanti beach tourism. for the social dimension, the average is 6.81, and the psychological dimension on average is 7.47, where women feel socially and psychologically empowered quite well. the main driver of women’s empowerment is the opportunity and permission from their families to participate in tourism activities. the main obstacle to women’s empowerment is the low self-confidence due to skills that have not been maximized. keywords: empowerment of women; gender; tourism; indrayanti beach jel classification: j16, z32 introduction tourism is a potential sector that can become a mainstay for indonesia in improving the economy and development, both at the national and regional levels. natural wealth and abundant diversity are special features for indonesia in the world's eyes, with diverse geographic conditions and cultural properties being the only attraction for local and foreign tourists to come to visit. tourism has become a necessity for some people. affiliation: department of economics, faculty of economics and business, universitas diponegoro, central java, indonesia *correspondence: prof.indah@gmail.com this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v22i2.10745 citation: wardhani, a.a., & susilowati, i. (2021). four dimensions of women’s empowerment in tourism: case study of indrayanti beach, yogyakarta, indonesia. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 22(2), 170-184. article history received: 04 jan 2021 revised: 19 apr 2021 09 aug 2021 31 aug 2021 accepted: 07 sep 2021 https://www.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorid=6507735168 https://ie.feb.undip.ac.id/en/homeland/home2/ https://ie.feb.undip.ac.id/en/homeland/home2/ https://ie.feb.undip.ac.id/en/homeland/home2/ https://ie.feb.undip.ac.id/en/homeland/home2/ mailto:prof.indah@gmail.com http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/10745 https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v22i1.7836&domain=pdf https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v22i2.10745&domain=pdf wardhani & susilowati four dimensions of women’s empowerment in tourism: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 171 the great interest of the community to do tourism makes tourism an important sector for indonesia. indonesia has high hopes for the tourism sector as an export commodity that can replace oil and gas' future role (sedarmayanti, 2014). abundant potential can be a way for indonesia to realize this dream. in the last ten years, tourism activities, especially in developing countries, have begun to diversify tourism objects by seeing the potential for alternative tourism to tackle mass tourism which has brought disastrous effects (suardana, 2012). women as part of society have an excellent opportunity to access employment in the tourism sector. conceptually, tourism activities will create new jobs that women can use to improve their standard of living (setyawati, 2011; tuwu, 2018). women's participation in accessing the same world of work as men will later create a gender problem. meanwhile, the un has defined gender equality and women's workforce as the goal of sustainable development. from the women's perspective, it has contributed to empowerment. furthermore, several researchers have looked at women's perceptions of factors such as having a job, income, and freedom to make decisions that contribute to empowerment, especially women who have found employment in the tourism industry in developing countries (aghazamani et al., 2020). it is crucial to conduct gender research in tourism to explain the current condition of gender roles in the tourism sector (alrwajfah et al., 2020). gender is considered a sensitive issue, and primarily gender relations have been influenced by tourism developments over time (alrwajfah et al., 2020). one important aspect of encouraging and promoting gender equality is women's empowerment that focuses on identifying and correcting power imbalances and giving women the opportunity to determine their own lives (irandu & shah, 2014). empowerment is a potential strategy to improve society's economy and socio-culture (susilowati et al., 2008). therefore, women's empowerment is a crucial point to improve the equality and economy of society. with empowerment, women can develop themselves and explore their potential. the emergence of tourism activities on indrayanti beach provides opportunities for women around the coast to develop their potential, especially in tourism activities. gunungkidul regency, as a regency directly adjacent to the indian ocean, has enormous marine tourism potential. indrayanti beach is one of the beaches that is currently experiencing rapid development which is a sign of becoming a well-known tourist attraction. the number of visits that have increased every year. the concept of ecotourism, which includes community empowerment, should be able to empower women optimally. great opportunities for the emergence of new employment opportunities can become an arena for women to play an active role in economic activities on indrayanti beach. in the implementation of women's empowerment, there are still obstacles in it. based on the results of interviews with female informants who participate in tourism activities, they still rely on their own skills and knowledge without any skills development training, so that the empowerment of existing women is still not optimal. wardhani & susilowati four dimensions of women’s empowerment in tourism: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 172 figure 1 number of tourist visits in indrayanti beach (2014-2018) source: government tourism office (2018) women and men have the same role in tourism activities. still, women have not been able to take part in existing decision-making. this is because women do not have foresight in tourism development, so women's roles are still only in the domestic corridor. the decision-making corridor still depends on men (tulle, 2016; sabina & nicolae, 2013). according to experts' perceptions, gender in ecotourism can be handled if the management is carried out with a participatory approach, wherein its development the community is the main target. knowledge of the nature of the community is needed before ecotourism. its implementation must support poor, less powerful community groups, which often involve women in it, to achieve the goal of ecotourism as conservation tourism and give priority to local communities (scheyvens, 2000). there are three reasons gender in ecotourism is important. the first is that gender becomes a way of promoting good natural resource management and conservation based on ecotourism. second, it ensures that ecotourism development benefits from the skills and knowledge of various communities. third, gender equality has become a basis of human rights that have been approved in the millennium development. these three reasons make women and men have equality in making decisions regarding the development and management of ecotourism. women and men must also be fair in the use of ecotourism (irandu & shah, 2014). scheyvens (2000) states that four dimensions determining women's empowerment in tourism activities for developing countries consist of economic, social, political, and psychological dimensions. these 4 (four) dimensions are important (irandu & shah, 2014) to see how the role of ecotourism in improving women's welfare in improving and economic independence (economic aspects), having a voice in decision making related to ecotourism (political aspects), the opportunity in participating in activities that are developed by the community (social aspect), and the opportunity in establishing themselves and have a sense of pride in themselves and the local culture that the region has (psychological aspects) (rahayu, 2018; irandu & shah, 2014). community-based ecotourism, in which the community is actively empowered economically, socially, politically, and psychologically, is a key element of sustainable tourism (ertac & tanova, 1.051.040 1.676.359 1.946.545 2.224.656 2.047.168 0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 number of tourist visits in indrayanti beach (2014-2018) jumlah wisatawan wardhani & susilowati four dimensions of women’s empowerment in tourism: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 173 2020). empowerment is considered a failure in ecotourism if there is a conversion of customary land functions, crime, fighting, prostitution, begging, and local communities' involvement in ecotourism activities (purnomo, 2018). meanwhile, the equality of women and men in coastal areas, especially in tourism development, is still not running well. in the labor division, women's role is still only in the household sector, such as taking care of children and doing household chores, while women who work in the public sector or work to earn a living are still small. women who earn a living are encouraged because men can no longer make a living (setyawati, 2011). empowerment of women in coastal areas, especially coastal tourism, is still not maximal even though women have been involved in tourism, but women still have a position below men (suardana, 2012). coastal tourism development is inseparable from the role of women in it. however, women who participate in tourism activities are mostly related to the domestic sector or are related to cooking. in contrast, other tourism activities requiring special skills are still dominated by men considered to have more qualified abilities than women. research related to women's empowerment in tourist objects has been widely carried out in indonesia and the world, but there are not many existing empirical studies that explore women's empowerment through four dimensions, namely economic, social, political, and psychological. meanwhile, to see women's empowerment itself can not only be seen from one side but the other side because the problem of empowerment is a complex problem which requires a holistic view. according to scheyvens (2000), the problem of empowering women, especially in developing countries, must be seen from many sides because tourism development is related to the economy and is multidimensional, and does not only focus on the economy. this research focuses more on seeing the level of empowerment based on four sides, namely the economy, social, politics, and psychology of women involved in tourism activities on indrayanti beach. research on women's empowerment in previous studies also uses the dimensions consisting of economic dimensions (irandu & shah, 2014; ranasinghe & pradeepamali, 2019; scheyvens, 2000; suardana, 2012), social (irandu & shah, 2014; ranasinghe & pradeepamali, 2019; scheyvens, 2000; rahayu, 2018; boley & mcgrehee, 2014), politics (setyawati, 2011; irandu & shah, 2014; ranasinghe & pradeepamali, 2019; scheyvens, 2000; rahayu, 2018; boley & mcgrehee, 2014), psychology (oladipo, 2010; batool & ahmed, 2016; irandu & shah, 2014; ranasinghe & pradeepamali, 2019; scheyvens, 2000; rahayu, 2018; boley & mcgrehee, 2014). this study contributes to providing information on how the conditions for women’s empowerment have been running and what factors are the drivers and barriers to empowerment at indrayanti beach. the method on contributing to the research arsenal is following the conditions as one of the mainstay tourist destinations of gunungkidul regency by identifying the level of women’s empowerment seen from four dimensions, namely economic, social, political, and psychological by using calculations based on the concept of rets (resident empowerment through tourism scale) with modifications to include economic aspects in it. rets is a concept formulated by by boley and mcgehee (2014) by adapting the four dimensions of empowerment by scheyvens (2000). still, it wardhani & susilowati four dimensions of women’s empowerment in tourism: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 174 does not include the economic dimension, so modifications were made to include the economic dimension in this study. in addition, in-depth interviews were conducted with key persons who have more knowledge about women’s empowerment in indrayanti beach to find out the driving and inhibiting factors of empowerment. research method this research was conducted from june to july 2020 at the indrayanti beach tourist attraction, located in tepus village, tepus district, gunungkidul regency, yogyakarta special region province. the sample in this study used snowballing sampling to select informants according to the criteria to answer the research objectives, namely women who are active in indrayanti beach tourism activities. primary data in this study consisted of 48 informants. secondary data were obtained from the statistics indonesia (bps) both from the yogyakarta special region province and from the kaputan gunungkidul, the ministry of tourism, the tourism office of the special region yogyakarta and gunungkidul regency, and the kelurahan tepus village, gunungkidul regency. the approach used in this research is the mixed method which combines qualitative and quantitative approaches. the mixed-method approach provides accurate analytical results in assessing the problems to be studied in research (creswell, 2014). the quantitative method used is the concept of resident empowerment through tourism scale (rets) proposed by boley & mcgrehee (2014) by modifying the addition of an economic dimension to see how ecotourism can affect women’s economic life individually. in this study, the analysis was carried out by looking for each indicator’s average in four dimensions. in the economic dimension, the assessment was seen from how many opportunities women had to access the labor market and better income. the social dimension of the evaluation is based on the opportunity for women to be more able to mingle with the community and participate in community activities. the political dimension of assessment is seen from how women have the power to make decisions and express their thoughts in tourism development. the psychological dimension of evaluation is seen from the feeling of pride in women towards their local culture and a sense of wanting to preserve the nature of local people’s tourism locations. the assessment is carried out based on 1 to 10 by determining the conventional scale scoring score as follows: table 1 scoring scale scoring scale interpretation 1-2 very low 3-4 low 5-6 medium 7-8 high 9-10 very high source: rahayu (2018) with modifications wardhani & susilowati four dimensions of women’s empowerment in tourism: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 175 the greater the average grade in each aspect, the better women's empowerment in indrayanti beach (rahayu, 2018). empowerment requires a multidisciplinary approach because empowerment is a complex problem (waridin et al., 2018). seeing empowerment not only sticks to one point of view but must be seen from various sides, namely economic, social, political, and psychological (scheyvens, 2000; irandu & shah, 2014). the qualitative method used is an in-depth interview and triangulation. in-depth interviews and triangulation research were conducted to validate the drivers and barriers of women’s empowerment based on the results of the average four dimensions of empowerment (economic, social, political, psychological) so that they could explain the average results of the four dimensions better and could explore further what are the driving and inhibiting factors for women’s empowerment in indrayanti beach.in-depth interviews were conducted with key persons consisting of the gunungkidul regency tourism office, business people around indrayanti beach, academics, and the tourism community on indrayanti beach (pokdarwis). the in-depth interviews were then analyzed using atlas ti software, where atlas ti can help analyze the results of the data obtained from in-depth interviews by providing coding to each data to provide convenience for researchers in drawing conclusions. result and discussion gender roles in tourism activities in indrayanti beach both men and women conduct tourism activities in indrayanti beach, so there is no difference in the implementation of tourism activities in indrayanti. both women and men have equal opportunities to participate in beach activities. however, in several activities, the role of women is still relatively small compared to men. the vital roles of women and men in tourism activities on indrayanti beach can be seen in table 2. table 2 gender roles in tourism activity data tourism activities male female food processing 10 16 souvenir provider 4 6 tourism service providers 9 3 women's role in tourism activities on indrayanti beach is most significant in food processing which is 16, and souvenir providers at 60%. for tourism service providers, women's role is still too small because the role of women involved in these activities is very small. most of the women participate only as seasonal workers when the beach is crowded. apart from renting mats and umbrellas, photography service providers are still dominated by men. this happens because women's ability to operate a camera is still not as good as men's, so women only get the role of photo printing. the management of tourism in indrayanti beach is also dominated by men in the core management, both chairman, treasurer, and secretary. wardhani & susilowati four dimensions of women’s empowerment in tourism: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 176 gender empowerment based on economic, social, political, and psychological aspects table 3 shows the average level of women's empowerment as seen from the four aspects of empowerment presented by scheyvens (2000), consisting of economic, social, political, and psychological empowerment. to see women's empowerment based on these aspects, each aspect has indicators that can show how women's empowerment is running in indrayanti beach and is consequently measured using a conventional scale of 1 to 10, which means that the higher the value, the better the existing empowerment. table 3 the average of gender empowerment based on economic, social, political, and psychological dimensions aspect indicator value sd mean interpretation economic the emergence of employment opportunities after tourism activities. 7.88 1.28 7.64 high an increase of income after participating in tourism activities. 7.62 1.35 an opportunity or probability of getting a better income. 7.46 1.36 financial stability after participating in tourism activities. 7.62 1.41 social feeling more unified with other societies. 6.62 1.64 6.81 medium there is an increase in enthusiasm for socializing. 7.00 1.44 the emergence opportunity to participate in societal activities 6.81 1.37 politic having a right in decisionmaking related to the development of tourism activities. 5.31 1.22 5.82 medium having the right to vote in beach development planning. 5.77 1.36 having the right to express ideas and thoughts in tourism development. 6.38 1.51 psychology the emergence of pride to be part of tepus society (as a part of indrayanti beach). 7.88 1.55 7.47 high the emergence of a particular feeling as a consequence of tourist visits. 7.62 1.89 awareness of uniqueness that can be told. 7.46 1.41 awareness of environment preservation tourism activities. 7.62 1.45 wardhani & susilowati four dimensions of women’s empowerment in tourism: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 177 economic empowerment economic empowerment is a dimension of empowerment that impacts the local community's economy due to the development of tourism activities in their area. economic empowerment is seen when the emergence of tourism activities gives the women's opportunity to access the labor market and improve their welfare. based on table 3, women's economic empowerment has shown an excellent average value, namely 7.64. the first indicator, "the emergence of opportunity or working opportunity after tourism activities," has a high value of 7.88. this average shows that the existence of tourism activities on indrayanti beach has a positive impact on women, especially the opportunity to access the labor market compared to before tourism activities. with the ease of women entering into tourism activities, it gives women the strength to be more financially independent. this is indicated by indicators of economic empowerment "there is an increase in income after participating in tourism activities" and "financial stability after participating in tourism activities" with each value of 7.62, then the indicator "there is an opportunity to get a better income" with an average value -average 7.46. the participation of women in tourism activities gives them financial independence because it contributes to the alleviation of their family's economic condition. initially, they are only housewives or farmworkers who are economically unstable and upon joining the activities in ecotourism, they have become women who can help their husbands and families pay for their daily needs. tourism activities on indrayanti beach have a positive impact on women economically. economic empowerment for women runs positively. these results are not following the study conducted by (irandu & shah, 2014) in which women cannot access jobs in the labor market in the tourism sector and only act as housewives. the difference in results is due to the fact that women in indrayanti beach have intense support from their families. social empowerment social empowerment is a dimension of empowerment related to the closeness between individuals and groups, increased cohesiveness between communities, and opportunities to participate in existing community activities. social empowerment occurs when women have the opportunity to be able to participate in activities in society. the average of social empowerment is 6.81, which shows that socially, women have felt the impact, even though it is not too massive. on the indicator of social empowerment, "feeling of being more united with other societies" has a value of 6.62. the value shows that indrayanti beach tourism activities in the tepus village area give women the opportunity to be more integrated with society. this encourages women to be more enthusiastic in establishing relationships with the society around them then, as shown by the value of the social empowerment indicator "there is an increase in enthusiasm for socializing," indicating a high enough value of 7.00 and an indicator of "the opportunity to participate in social activities" with value 6.81. wardhani & susilowati four dimensions of women’s empowerment in tourism: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 178 the three values of social indicators show that tourism activities on indrayanti beach encourage women to be more socialized with their surrounding societies to work together in building tourism.furthermore, indrayanti beach's activities encourage women to get involved with social activities such as the women's lottery club in pokdarwis kompak as beach managers, which women mostly carry out. socially, women have a positive impact on the emergence of indrayanti beach. as a result of the emergence of tourism activities, they indirectly play an important role in tourism development by forming activities that can encourage tourism development in indrayanti beach. the result is following the result of the study conducted by scheyvens (2000) in which the emergence of tourism provides an increase in interaction between them. individuals and groups build better tourism together. the social empowerment that appears on indrayanti beach is under the results of scheyvens' study (2000), where the emergence of tourism provides increased interaction between communities. individuals and groups together build better tourism. political empowerment political empowerment is a dimension of empowerment wherein women can express their aspirations, voices, and decision-making in tourism. political empowerment occurs when women realize that they have power in making decisions related to tourism activities. the average value of political empowerment for women in indrayanti beach is 5.82, indicating that politically, women have not been empowered optimally. the first indicator, "has the right to make decisions related to tourism development," has a value of 5.31, the indicator "has the right to vote in beach development planning" with a value of 5.77, and the indicator "has the right to utter ideas and thoughts in tourism development" which has a value 6.38. based on the three indicators of political empowerment, the value tends to be low compared to other empowerment aspects. the low level of political empowerment occurs because women who participate in tourism activities are still unaware of the importance of their opinions on tourism development. opportunities in expressing statements are welcome and facilitated by pokdarwis kompak as the beach manager. pokdarwis kompak has provided a chance for all members to speak ideas or suggestions in developing the beach. however, women still do not dare to participate in voicing their ideas and thoughts based on the lack of insight they have regarding tourism development. besides the lack of awareness, women's political empowerment is still hampered by voting ownership. although the opportunity is open for women to make decisions, because decisions are made by deliberation, decision-making is still carried out by the core management, who are primarily men, both chairperson, secretary, and treasurer. almost all women become members only and are more likely to follow all the core management decisions. wardhani & susilowati four dimensions of women’s empowerment in tourism: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 179 politically, women are not appropriately empowered due to support by the low value on each political indicator. women on indrayanti beach are still unable to take advantage of the opportunity to participate in tourism development. the result of political empowerment is similar to the study conducted by scheyvens (2000). in decision-making on tourism development, women are more likely to follow men and leave their voices to men. psychological empowerment psychological empowerment is a dimension of empowerment that has a psychological influence on women due to the emergence of tourism activities in their area. the average value of psychological empowerment is 7.47. this value has shown women's psychological empowerment after tourism activities have increased significantly. the indicator "the emergence of pride in being part of the tepus society (as the location of indrayanti beach)" has a value of 7.88. the high value shows that with the presence of tourism activities, women are proud of their area because many tourists visit to see the natural beauty in their area. the women's pride encourages them to have an awareness that they are special in becoming part of the place where they live, and the existence of awareness of the characteristics they can develop in attracting tourists. it can be seen from two psychological empowerment indicators, "the emergence of a special feeling due to tourist visits" and "awareness of the uniqueness that can be told" with values of 7.62 and 7.46, the feeling of being particular and aware of their uniqueness occurs because of the interaction between women as tourism service providers and tourists. the three indicators encourage women to feel belonging to the tourism objective, namely indrayanti beach. this feeling of belonging indirectly encourages women to maintain the sustainability of tourism objects to maintain their sustainability. this is supported by the indicator value of "awareness of the conservation of the tourism environment," namely 7.62. driving and inhibiting factors of women empowerment empowerment of women in indrayanti beach based on economic, social, political, and psychological dimensions shows that the existing women’s empowerment has been running quite well from each dimension. it is good that women’s empowerment cannot be separated from the driving factors, but along the way, women’s empowerment also still faces an obstacle. the driving and inhibiting factors for women’s empowerment are based on in-depth interviews with key persons who have direct involvement in tourism activities in indrayanti beach. they have a better understanding of the drivers and barriers of women’s empowerment running on indrayanti beach. wardhani & susilowati four dimensions of women’s empowerment in tourism: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 180 figure 2 illustration of the driving factors for empowerment in indrayanti beach with atlas ti based on the results from atlas ti, it shows that several factors drive women’s empowerment in indrayanti beach. the participation of women in tourism areas has become a natural thing where women on indrayanti beach have a high spirit and sense of cooperation in the tourism development process. this cannot be separated from the support from the closest parties, such as families who do not restrain them from participating in the tourism area. in addition, in the tourism sector, the highest absorbed human resources are women with a fairly good knowledge of tourism potential. women can be encouraged to participate in tourism activities actively. this is reinforced by a statement from the head of planning for the gunungkidul tourism office. “if we look at the labor sector in indrayanti, many women are also absorbed as workers, and women are at the forefront of the indrayanti area. currently, women are no longer looked down upon, and now many women have joined the work and men themselves have also not prohibited women from working.” support from relevant stakeholder parties also encourages them to participate in tourism activities. they are given facilities to participate in tourism activities, such as participating in forums facilitated by the tourism office and pokdarwis in indrayanti beach. this follows what was conveyed by the head of industry and tourism institutions of the gunungkidul tourism office. “...their involvement cannot be separated from development planning, such as the musrembang involving women and pokdarwis, as well as the joint forum of regional apparatuses that have also involved them. in addition, for the development of human resources, especially pokdarwis and sapta pesona, there are many women involved. in addition, cross-sectoral support, both professional and related institutions, is very high. third, there is a high sense of kinship and mutual cooperation that still exists in the community.” wardhani & susilowati four dimensions of women’s empowerment in tourism: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 181 figure 3 illustration of inhibiting factors for empowerment in indrayanti beach with atlas ti the empowerment of existing women is also still experiencing obstacles. women still experience a lack of confidence to participate in tourism activities because they feel that their skills are still low or only limited to the knowledge they know. the lack of training contributes to their inability to innovate which is primarily due to the very limited funds for training. this statement was reinforced by the head of industry and tourism institutions, gunungkidul tourism office. “for the inhibiting factor, ms. may still be closely tied to her human resources, such as limited human resources for tourism actors, the type of coaching needed varies according to the profession, while funds are limited and changing the mindset to apply behavior according to tourism rules must be carried out continuously, temporarily, and the costs for training are very limited.” human resources that are still low, with the majority only having education up to high school level, are one of the obstacles in empowering women in indrayanti, especially in their thoughts regarding beach development and self-improvement, even though forums for women are already available from both the pokdarwis and the government in terms of this is the department of tourism. the secretary of pokdarwis conveyed the statement: “……..there is an inhibiting factor when there is a program that we make, sometimes they don’t immediately accept it, maybe because of their background, they don’t have enough human resources, so sometimes they don’t realize that the procurement of a facility is important, for development and they accept it, we are like this, it’s already good, i see. women are scared too.” conclusion the condition of women's empowerment on indrayanti beach can be seen from the average results of four dimensions of trust. based on the resident empowerment concept wardhani & susilowati four dimensions of women’s empowerment in tourism: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 182 through tourism scale (rets), empowering women who walk on indrayanti beach from one dimension to another shows the results of a different average value with the highest average value of empowerment being in the economic dimension. the lowest average empowerment value is the political dimension. the dimension of economic empowerment has the highest average value compared to other dimensions of women's empowerment, namely 7.64, which is in the high category. the high average value shows that women in indrayanti beach are economically well empowered and have acquired positive benefits from it economically. women in indrayanti beach feel that the emergence of tourism activities provides them with opportunities to get better jobs and incomes. the psychological empowerment dimension is the highest in second place, with an average value of 7.47, which is included in the high category. the high average value of empowerment shows that women who participate in tourism activities on indrayanti beach feel well empowered psychologically. women on indrayanti beach have a feeling of pride in the area and culture they have. in addition, women in indrayanti beach already have a sense of preserving the environment of indrayanti beach. the social empowerment dimension has an average empowerment value of 6.81, which is in the medium category. the average value of empowerment in the sociological dimension is currently showing that socially women on indrayanti beach already feel empowered even though they still have not had such a significant impact on women. they already have a greater sense of interacting with the community around them and engaging in community activities. the dimension of political empowerment has the lowest average value of empowerment compared to other dimensions of empowerment, namely 5.82, which is in the medium category. politically, women already have a place to express their opinions and ideas regarding tourism development. however, women still feel that their opinions are not needed and are more likely to follow men's voices. this is because women feel that they do not know anything related to tourism development efforts, so they consider men's voice to represent them. several factors encourage women’s empowerment so that empowerment can run quite well; namely, they have opportunities, enthusiasm and a high sense of cooperation, support from large families, and a large number of female human resources with good knowledge of tourism potential. the role of supporting stakeholders also encourages them to participate in tourism activities actively. empowerment also still has several obstacles where women still experience insecurity due to low skills and lack of training that they can provide, and their ability to innovate is still lacking. the lack of training women receive in indrayanti beach is because the funds for training are very limited. women’s resources have not been able to develop their potential to the fullest. this research can provide an overview regarding the empowerment of women in indrayanti beach tourism to become one of the important literature in future policy wardhani & susilowati four dimensions of women’s empowerment in tourism: … jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2021 | 183 making 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(2018). community empowerment in rural infrastructure development program. economic journal of emerging markets, 10(1), 8–14. https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol10.iss1.art2 https://ojs.unud.ac.id/index.php/piramida/article/view/3002 https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/10197734.pdf https://doi.org/10.17510/paradigma.v6i1.81 https://doi.org/10.31332/ai.v13i1.872 https://doi.org/10.20885/ejem.vol10.iss1.art2 introduction jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan volume 23 no 1, april 2022 article type: research paper the role of technology information on financial literacy in indonesia muhammad rizkan1*, romi bhakti hartarto2, supiandi3, and chieh-tse hou1 abstract: financial management literacy is a significant knowledge to assist individuals' financial condition. there are various factors influencing monetary management, including information technology (it). thus, this study aims to investigate the role of it affecting individual awareness of financial literacy in indonesia with household characteristics as the controlling variable; the data are generated from the indonesian family life survey conducted in 2014. probit and logit models signify that its and household characteristics positively and significantly affect financial literacy. in detail, handphones, televisions and newspapers, marital status, education level, and household income levels have a positive and significant influence on households' accessing financial knowledge. furthermore, multinomial logit estimation used to compare three different levels of financial literacy (low, medium, and high), indicates that six out of nine variables significantly affect financial literacy at low level to high levels, whereas only four out of nine influence financial literacy from medium to a high level. keywords: financial literacy; ifls; technology; household characteristic; probit; logit jel classification: g20; 010; g53 introduction in this digital era, individuals are expected to be more responsible for their financial situation, including their income, life expectancy, well-being, and financial freedom. individuals must be able to manage their funds to enhance their living standards (ameliawati & setiyani, 2018). furthermore, today's society is confronted with the unpredictability of financial products on the market, heightening the necessity for financial management. therefore, individual financial troubles are directly related to poor money management. individual and family financial illiteracy is one of the leading causes of personal financial problems. hence, a combination of financial issues, such as low income, excessive debt, and lack of financial knowledge, can harm the individual and household (fazli sabri et al., 2020). based on the definition by the organization for economic cooperation and development (oecd), financial literacy is not only about knowledge or understanding of what financial concepts are, but an understanding of the skill, motivation, and implementation of the concepts in life in order of making better financial decisions and improve individual financial wellbeing (swiecka et al., 2020). demirguc-kunt et al (2018) global index data affiliation: 1 department of finance at the college of management, national dong hwa university, taiwan 2 department of economics, faculty of economics and business, universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta, special region of yogyakarta, indonesia 3 department of islamic economics, faculty of economics, universitas nahdlatul ulama west nusa tenggara, indonesia *correspondence: rizqone2014@gmail.com this article is avalilable in: http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp doi: 10.18196/jesp.v23i1.14148 citation: rizkan, m., hartarto, r. b., supiandi, s., & hou, c-t. (2022). the role of technology information on financial literacy in indonesia. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 23(1), 157-170. article history received: 02 mar 2022 revised: 25 mar 2022 21 apr 2022 accepted: 26 apr 2022 https://scholar.google.co.id/citations?user=bp-4i4waaaaj&hl=en https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=hnf6keiaaaaj&hl=en https://c014.ndhu.edu.tw/bin/home.php?lang=en https://c014.ndhu.edu.tw/bin/home.php?lang=en https://c014.ndhu.edu.tw/bin/home.php?lang=en https://economics-feb.umy.ac.id/ https://economics-feb.umy.ac.id/ https://economics-feb.umy.ac.id/ https://economics-feb.umy.ac.id/ https://economics-feb.umy.ac.id/ https://ei.unu-ntb.ac.id/ https://ei.unu-ntb.ac.id/ https://ei.unu-ntb.ac.id/ https://ei.unu-ntb.ac.id/ mailto:rizqone2014@gmail.com http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp https://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/esp/article/view/14148 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/ https://crossmark.crossref.org/dialog/?doi=10.18196/jesp.v23i1.14148&domain=pdf rizkan, hartarto, supiandi, & hou the role of technology information on financial literacy in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 158 base focuses on financial literacy based on three leading indicators: (1) ownership and use of an account at a formal financial institution, (2) saving behavior, and (3) borrowing activity. the addition of financial instruments and products positively impacts individuals to reach and access financial institutions. this diversity of instruments is created, considering individual demands and needs, such as financial services, payday loans, pawnshops, and mobile banking. thus, this will affect individuals' behavior in making a financial plan. according to lusardi and mitchell (2013), the assets and liabilities of the household balance sheet changed, for instance, the current generation is more in debt as they near retirement than earlier generations. some prior studies have found evidence that financial literacy may have essential role implications on financial behavior. individuals who are well-literate in financial literacy are more ready to plan their future life such as retirement (mitchell et al., 2011), unexpected expenses, and other costs (brounen et al., 2016; yoshino et al., 2017). individuals will also spend their money considerately and avoid over-indebtedness (huston, 2012). in addition, concerning the financial stock market, individuals who have well literacy might achieve higher net wealth due to an understanding of getting a better-diversified portfolio (darsono et al., 2022; gaudecker, 2015; tseng et al., 2019; van rooij et al., 2012). financial literacy is one of the crucial issues to be discussed, especially in lower-middleincome and middle-income countries such as indonesia. world bank (2014) reported that the share of indonesian age ranges 15to 24-year-olds with accounts in financial institutions is relatively low compared to other countries. only 12.8 % of young adults and less than 20 % of adults have accounts in the bank. according to a nationwide survey in indonesia, people with jobs are more likely to hold bank accounts for security concerns. on the other hand, people without jobs are less likely to use banking services (world bank data, 2022). according to a survey done by the financial services authority (ojk) in 2016, the level of financial literacy in indonesia is extremely poor (ojk, 2016). the financial literacy rate in indonesia is just around 21.8 percent, which means that only 22 people out of every 100 are financially literate. meanwhile, according to the most recent poll from 2016, there was a 6% increase (29.6 percent). this condition indicates that indonesians lack sufficient financial awareness. only 13 of the 34 provinces have a financial literacy level that is higher than the national average (29.70 percent). this demonstrates that public financial knowledge is not distributed equally across all jurisdictions. in terms of technology, indonesia is rapidly developing information technology, particularly internet usage. the internet penetration rate in indonesia continues to rise. only 10% of indonesia's population accessed the internet in 2010. meanwhile, by 2020, the number of internet users in indonesia will have increased fivefold (53 percent) (world bank data, 2020). financial technology makes it easier for the public to obtain financial products, makes transactions easier, and improve financial inclusion (atikah & ma’ruf, 2016; fazli sabri et al., 2020; hamori & kume, 2018; hon et al., 2021). according to wadhwa et al. (2019), people will be more aware of financial services if they have access to financial news channels, tv shows, publications, blogs, and other sources of information. nalini et al. (2016) also revealed that financial literacy has a direct impact on rizkan, hartarto, supiandi, & hou the role of technology information on financial literacy in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 159 investors' capacity to make solid financial income allocation decisions and boosts their overall financial strength. investor financial education programs accompanied by innovative instructional technology have an important role in increasing financial literacy. integration of financial programs with information technology practices will produce more significant benefits in the form of increased financial competence in the current setting when people rely on the internet as a source of information and services. financial literacy has been proven in several studies to improve people's ability to make better decisions that will benefit them in the future (yoshino et al., 2017). they claim that financial literacy is positively associated with personal financial management and that financially literate people are more likely to invest rather than spend their money. furthermore, financial education is required for gambling and any financial decision, for instance, risk assessment, budgeting, and awareness of random events. people with financial knowledge, for example, have a better chance of prospering in the money market. this has to do with a person's knowledge of the factors that drive market conditions (hurla et al., 2017). during the 1990s, previous research focused on people’s understanding of financial concepts, analyzing financial data, and understanding how to manage finances (bakken, 1966; chen & volpe, 1998; danes & hira, 1987). furthermore, hilgert and hogarth, (2003) and mitchell et al. (2011) stated that financial literacy is a measuring tool for understanding financial management as well as financial indicators such as access to banking, investment, etc. other financial literacy models are conceptualized into three dimensions: financial attitude, knowledge, and behavior (atkinson & messy, 2011). the term financial knowledge refers to the understanding of personal finance topics. a person's financial knowledge can be measured via a questionnaire. financial knowledge is often used with financial literacy, but the terms do not overlap completely. huston (2010) stated that financial knowledge is an integral dimension of, but not equivalent to financial literacy. financial attitude plays an important implication in financial literacy. someone with an excellent financial attitude will have adequate financial literacy as well. on the other hand, individuals who have a lack of financial attitude will have an impact on low financial literacy. with good financial literacy, people make choices about good financial products for their future. it has been explained by pankow (2003) that financial attitude is a state of opinion, mind, and judgment of a person about finance. financial behavior is also essential to financial literacy awareness (oecd, 2013). according to atkinson and messy (2011), people with full consciousness of money management are better at preparing for the future. while persons with money management abilities might have a better financial situation than those who do not. furthermore, financial literacy is defined as the development of knowledge or education among the general population about the benefits of financial services, the results of which can lead to financial inclusion. it would be beneficial to analyze what factors influence individual families' comprehension of finances facilitated by personalized search and financial information to obtain all the real and potential benefits of financial literacy. the studies cited show that financial ability, literacy, and investing decisions are all linked. rizkan, hartarto, supiandi, & hou the role of technology information on financial literacy in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 160 one way that can be used to measure the level of financial literacy, a case study of indonesian, is to examine the share of the population or individuals who are active in the financial system. the higher the amount of financial inclusion, the more financial literacy there is. this is related to the bank's role in imparting financial management knowledge. the author will also focus on the situations and qualities of the household's head of household when analyzing individuals and households in general. this has to do with a person's personality traits when it comes to financial literacy. in the analogy of corporate finance, household finance tries to find information on how individuals use financial instruments to achieve their goals. the qualities of members can be used to characterize financial challenges that emerge in a home. individuals must have a long-term plan, such as planning to have an important asset that has not yet been traded in the future. then individuals must have an illiquid asset, for instance, houses and various other financial decisions. to attain this objective, we could find out the characteristic of individuals in more detail. furthermore, the authors used data from the 2014 indonesian family life survey (ifls) to set it apart from other studies, since there is a scarcity of research on the topic of financial literacy that employs similar data or variables. this research contributes important empirical results regarding the role of technology information on financial literacy in the case of indonesia. research method this study's primary data sources are collected from the indonesian family life survey (ifls) obtained by surveymeter indonesia and rand. ifls is the most comprehensive survey ever conducted in indonesia. this survey is a panel study of households, individuals, and communities that have been carried out by rand corporation for five waves since 1993 in 13 out of 27 provinces in indonesia. the fifth batch survey (ifls-5) was conducted at the end of 2014 with 15,900 households and 709 communities. specifically, 50,000 individuals participated in the survey. in the data collection method, all related data is obtained from indonesia family life survey (ifls) by recording longitudinal data ifls-5 in 2014. the data are collected from the surveymeter, the ifls questionnaire provides data summarized in the 2014 hh (household) book. respondents are provided with different types of books. the selected book is used as a benchmark for selecting the variables to be studied, both the dependent and independent variables. the selection of variables needed in this study is contained in ifls-5 in the 2014 hh (household) book. the data is gathered for each variable from a variety of sources. book 2a provided the financial literacy and television factors. meanwhile, the 3a book provides access to cell phones, the internet, and newspapers. the book k final is used to acquire information about household characters such as marital status, income, household head, employment, and religion. the primary goal of this research is to investigate the impact of technical information on financial literacy in indonesia. this research also looks at financial literacy at the home rizkan, hartarto, supiandi, & hou the role of technology information on financial literacy in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 161 level in indonesia. the authors collected financial literacy variables as the dependent variable in this study using data from the ifls5 questionnaire, book 2 in the bh (loans) part of the survey. typically, the head of the household is questioned about their understanding of financial services and their experiences with them. the author also uses the probit model (also known as probit regression). probability models are a way to perform regression for binary outcome variables. a binary outcome variable is a dependent variable with two possibilities, such as yes or no, positive test result or negative test result and single or non-single. furthermore, the authors also involve multinomial logistic regression. this model is a simple extension of binary logistic regression that allows more than two categories of dependent variables or outcomes. there were 10426 observations for all of the variables, with the lowest value 0 and the maximum value 1 for each variable. in contrast to the education and income factors, education received the highest score of 22 and income received the highest score of 17.91. (see appendix 1 for more information). pearson correlation analysis (appendix 2) shows the positive and negative relationship between variables. this correlation will be the part to evaluate the level of multicollinearity among regression. gujarati and porter (2003) explained the pair-wise correlation of two variables above 0.50 signals a possible multicollinear problem. appendix 2 shows us that the strongest significant pair correlation is the pair between internet access and education at 0.5250, indicating the existence of multicollinearity between these two variables. in answering how technology and household characteristics affect the financial literacy of the head of the household, the data obtained through the questionnaire contains the number 1 for those who have financial literacy and 0 for those who do not. thus, the probit model used obtains two possible outcomes. the following is the probit model equation for financial literacy model 1 (finlit_a): 𝐹𝑖𝑛𝑙𝑖𝑡_𝑎𝑖 = 𝛼 + 𝛽1ℎ𝑝𝑖 + 𝛽2𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑛𝑒𝑡𝑖 + 𝛽3𝑡𝑣𝑖 + 𝛽4𝑛𝑒𝑤𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖 + 𝛽5𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑟𝑖𝑒𝑑𝑖 + 𝛽6𝑒𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖 + 𝛽7𝑗𝑜𝑏𝑖 + 𝛽8𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑖 + 𝛽9𝑟𝑒𝑔𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖 + 𝜀1 on the other hand, the multinomial logistics model, which is an extension of binary logistic regression of three or more categories of variables dependent, will be used to see if there are differences in the effect of technology and household characteristics on three different levels of knowledge of the head of the household (low, medium, high) on financial literacy. the following is the multinomial logistics model for financial literacy model 2 (finlit_bi): 𝐹𝑖𝑛𝑙𝑖𝑡_𝑏𝑖 = 𝛼 + 𝛽1ℎ𝑝𝑖 + 𝛽2𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑛𝑒𝑡𝑖 + 𝛽3𝑡𝑣𝑖 + 𝛽4𝑛𝑒𝑤𝑠𝑝𝑎𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖 + 𝛽5𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑟𝑖𝑒𝑑𝑖 + 𝛽6𝑒𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖 + 𝛽7𝑗𝑜𝑏𝑖 + 𝛽8𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑖 + 𝛽9𝑟𝑒𝑔𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖 + 𝜀1 rizkan, hartarto, supiandi, & hou the role of technology information on financial literacy in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 162 where 𝐹𝑖𝑛𝑙𝑖𝑡_𝑎𝑖 indicates the financial literacy for the probit model and 𝐹𝑖𝑛𝑙𝑖𝑡_𝑏𝑖 indicates financial literacy for the logit model, hp indicates the availability of handphone, tv indicates the availability of television, newspaper indicates the access to newspapers, married indicates the marital status, education indicates level of education, job indicates for job status, income indicates the level of income, region indicates where the respondents live (urban or rural), α refers to a constant term, β refers to estimated coefficient, and ε stands for error term. result and discussion this study examined the gathered data through a series of stages. correlation analysis is used to determine the degree of the link between the independent and dependent variables. the linear correlation coefficient (r or r) is a statistic that indicates how closely two variables are related. although correlation analysis can be linear or non-linear, this study concentrates on linear correlation analysis since it is the most common method employed in social science research (alkan et al., 2020; klieštik et al., 2015; potrich et al., 2015). probit regression this section explains probit regression to measure how significantly and the probability of financial literacy for each respondent. table 1 (column 1), shows that there are 6 out of 9 determinants that are positive and significant at the level of 5%. determinants such as handphone, television, newspaper, married, education, and income are positively and significantly affect financial literacy (finlit_a). while on the other column in the same table (table 1 column 2), it shows the marginal effect. technology determinants such as owning a handphone and having a television positively affect financial literacy (finlit_a) at a significance level of 5%. individuals who had handphones and television in their houses had a 1.2% and 4.9% higher financial literacy than individuals who did not have them, respectively. regarding household characteristics, individuals who were able to read newspapers whether in bahasa indonesia (indonesian language) or/and other languages have a positive effect on financial literacy (finlit_a) at a significance level of 5%, where they have a 4.4% higher of financial literacy than individuals who were not. next, marital status has a positive effect on financial literacy (finlit_a) at a significance level of 5%. married individuals have a 5.1% higher financial literacy than unmarried individuals. the increase in education level for one year will increase the probability of individuals’ financial literacy by reaching 1%. the increase in income level will increase the probability of individuals’ financial literacy by 1.2%. in addition, the output of the literation log is 4122.52, and it can be used for the model. it is also indicating how quickly the model converged. the likelihood ratio chi-square is f 513.93 and a p-value of 0.000, which means that this model is statistically significant; that is, it fits significantly better than a model with no predictors. rizkan, hartarto, supiandi, & hou the role of technology information on financial literacy in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 163 table 1 the result of the probit model and marginal effect probit variable (s) probit marginal effect probit handphone 0.055** (0.040) 0.0121** (0.008) internet 0.019 (0.043) 0.0042 (0.009) tv 0.226** (0.446) 0.0493** (0.010) newspaper 0.203*** (0.038) 0.0442** (0.008) married 0.234** (0.041) 0.0509** (0.009) education 0.043** (0.004) 0.0095** (0.001) job 0.076 (0.049) 0.0165 (0.010) logincome 0.056** (0.014) 0.0122** (0.003) region 0.025 (0.033) 0.0056 (0.007) constant -0.7657** (0.193) 0.8516** (0.003) observations 10426 log-likelihood 4122.5254 lr chi2 513.93 prob>chi2 0.0000 pseudo r2 0.0587 aic / bic 8625.051 / 8337.571 note: robust standard errors are reported in parentheses; ** p < 0.05. in line with nalini et al. (2016), people rely on the internet as a source of information and services and their integration of the financial program with information technology practices, will give more significant results in improved financial competency. moreover, wadhwa et al. (2019) mentioned that level of awareness toward financial products among people with exposure to digital media such as portals, financial news channels, a marketrelated tv shows are higher, and their level of knowledge is also higher than those with no access. on the other hand, a study conducted by fatoki (2014) stated that, on average, micro-entrepreneurs had little information on finance and skills. the study results also show the lack of using technology in which many respondents do not even have both email addresses and web pages due to their limited internet access. according to the result, the study explains that the less frequently entrepreneurs use technology, the lower their understanding of financial literacy. a study conducted by arora (2016) shows how digital technology helps elementary school teachers teach financial literacy. this study found a positive relationship between digital technology and improving financial literacy among children or students. the teachers interviewed by arora (2016) combined various instructional strategies using digital technologies to deliver their lessons on financial literacy. the culminating results showed that the students performed well on formative and summative assessments in their classes. rizkan, hartarto, supiandi, & hou the role of technology information on financial literacy in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 164 furthermore, arora (2016) and arthur (2012) explained that providing students with access to technology has the potential to transform the way students learn and help prepare them for success by enhancing their knowledge and application of technology in ways that will inform their future careers. the relation of the use of technology in influencing financial literacy in an individual in the household could be concluded. multinomial logistic regression this model explains that the different levels of financial literacy (finlit_b) belong to individuals as respondents in this study. the three different levels are low-level, mediumlevel, and high-level financial literacy. the response variable “finlit_b” will be treated as categorical under the assumption that financial literacy levels have no natural ordering. this model will allow stata to choose the referent group, which is the most frequently occurring group to be the referent group. table 2 shows the results of the multinomial logistics model. table 2 result of multinomial logistic model multinomial logistic variable (s) low-level medium-level high level handphone -0.1551** (0.077) -0.1195 (0.061) base outcome internet -0.0758 (0.085) -0.1244** (0.057) tv -0.4343** (0.088) -0.0917 (0.076) newspaper -0.4377** (0.075) -0.1681** (0.060) married 0.4690** (0.080) -0.1201 (0.065) education -0.1060** (0.009) -0.0621** (0.006) job -0.1335 (0.094) 0.0023 (0.076) logincome -0.1201** (0.028) -0.0491** (0.023) region -0.0185 (0.063) -0.0841 (0.047) constant 2.6814** (0.371) 1.234** (0.309) observations 10426 log-likelihood -9942.356 lr chi2 810.18 prob>chi2 0.0000 pseudo r2 0.0391 aic 19924.71 bic 20069.75 note: robust standard errors are reported in parentheses; ** p < 0.05. rizkan, hartarto, supiandi, & hou the role of technology information on financial literacy in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 165 low-level relative to high-level financial literacy this section is the multinomial logit estimate comparing variables relative to high-level financial literacy, given the other variables in the model are held constant. based on the result of the multinomial logistic model in table 2, regarding technology determinants, the multinomial logit having a handphone to not having a handphone would be expected to decrease by 0.155 for low-level to high-level financial literacy, given all other predictor variables in the model are held constant. in other words, individuals who had handphones were more likely than those who did not have handphones to have low-level to high-level financial literacy. furthermore, individuals without a television have a lower degree of financial literacy (0.434) than those with a television. regarding household characteristics, newspaper and married would be expected to decrease by 0.437 and 0.469, respectively, for low-level to high-level financial literacy. then, education level – estimate for a one-year increase in education level for low-level relative to high-level, given the other variables in the model are held constant. if individuals were to increase their education level for one year, the multinomial log-odds for low-level relative to high-level would be expected to decrease by 0.106 years on financial literacy. last, low-level income relative to high-level financial literacy would be expected to decrease by 0.120 rupiah or usd (log income). medium-level relative to high-level in financial literacy this section has the same interpretation of low-level relative to high-level financial literacy. the difference is that only internet access, newspaper, education, and income would be expected to affect medium-level to high-level financial literacy. they all would be expected to decrease by 0.124, 0.168, 0.062, and 0.049, respectively, for medium-level to high-level financial literacy. from the point of view of household characteristics, many factors influence financial literacy, as shown by some prior study evidence. the behavior of household members in reading news in the newspaper, as mentioned in a study conducted by freeman (2013), shows traders' news consumption behavior. this study explores the news consumption behavior of young adults aged 18 years in malaysia. the results present that most young people prefer online news instead of traditional news media (newspaper). furthermore, data present that young people tend to like entertainment news and dislike business and finance news. regarding marital status, married men are more well-literate. higher well literate finance will lead them to be less worried about their financial concerns and greater financial well-being. singles are such a significant tendency to reduce individuals’ financial literacy levels compared to those who are married (brown & graf, 2013; calamato, 2010; dew, 2008) a study by (taft et al., 2013) shows the relationship between financial literacy, well-being, and concerns. the results showed that age and education positively correlate with financial literacy and financial well-being. lalosa (2020) explained that the ability of financial literacy is found in someone who has a higher level of education and can access rizkan, hartarto, supiandi, & hou the role of technology information on financial literacy in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 166 more information about financial literacy. during their undergraduate program with some relevant subjects to economics and finance, students have a positive effect on daily financial practices. mandell (2008) also states that children’s financial literacy is associated with their parents’ education levels. to ensure students make the right financial decisions, financial education experts contend that families and schools should foster financial literacy before students enter the teen years (supon, 2012). in a previous study, johnson and sherraden (2007) stated that students in high-income families have significantly higher levels of knowledge than those in low-income families. hence, atkinson and messy (2011) found that low-income levels have a close relationship to the low levels of financial literacy. calamato (2010) stated that students in low-income families tend to drop out of school, and it will affect their financial literacy awareness. another piece of the literature shows that low-outcome families often occur in households with low financial literacy (badarinza et al., 2016). on the other hand, a study by chen & volpe (1998) found that a person with long-time working experience is more concerned about financial situations; they get more information, thus facilitating lots of information and providing a standard for people of decision-making. working arrangements also could influence financial attitude and behavior, considering that individuals with steady income conditions have a better plan to organize their financial life (calamato, 2010). a survey conducted by worthington (2006) in australia reports that financial literacy scores tend to have higher amongst individuals in managerial occupations, and professional, and occupation fields are also associated with an individual’s financial literacy levels. a survey by emirate arab investors found that individuals working in finance industries or investment show higher financial knowledge levels than those in other occupation fields (hassan al-tamimi & anood bin kalli, 2009). furthermore, employees have been categorized into two parts, namely urban and rural, depending upon whether the employee’s place of employment is an urban area or rural area. from the results, employees working in urban areas are more financially literate than those working in rural areas (bhushan & medury, 2013). conclusion this study examined factors affecting financial literacy in indonesia. the data collected is cross-sectional data obtained from the latest wave (wave5) of surveymeter and rand in 2014-2015. the authors used probit and the multinomial logistic regression model to answer the research objectives. the probit regression test results indicate that there are 6 out of 9 factors that have a significant influence on financial literacy. these factors include owning mobile phones, having a television, reading newspapers in foreign languages, marital status, education level, and the average monthly income per capita. meanwhile, internet access, job, and residence location (urban-rural) have no relationship and do not affect financial literacy. on the other hand, multinomial logistic regression gives us an explanation of the different levels of financial literacy in indonesia. first, lowrizkan, hartarto, supiandi, & hou the role of technology information on financial literacy in indonesia jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, 2022 | 167 level groups relative to the high-level group on financial literacy results show us 6 out of 9 determinants affect financial literacy. second, the medium-level group relative to the high-level group results shows that only 4 out of 9 determinants affect financial literacy. the things that can be considered from this research are that the government will continue to improve supporting facilities, especially information and technology for the public toward financial literacy awareness. in this case, supporting factors such as handphones and television positively correlate with financial literacy, and so do several other supporting factors (control variables). meanwhile, internet access users are still shallow. in this era, all internet access should be maximized. then, work status should also be the place where people can learn and increase their financial literacy. thus, the government should facilitate them properly. as well as the location where people live shows have no relationship with financial literacy. based on the data, support for financial literacy is dominated by people who live in urban areas (java). it is the task of the government where all people in other regions should feel an equal distribution of financial literacy. this study has several limitations. it only uses ifls-5 cross-sectional data from 2014, implying that more research with up-to-date data, such as panel data or the most recent ifls data, is required. second, because this study only looks at a few variables, it needs to be expanded to look at other factors that may influence financial literacy. references alkan, o., oktay, e., unver, s., & gerni, e. 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(2017). financial literacy in japan: determinants and impacts. asian development bank institute adbi working papers 796, asian development bank institute. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2012.02501.x https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/it.net.user.zs?locations=id https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/financialinclusion/overview#1 https://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/worldbank/document/eap/indonesia/indonesia-development-policy-review-2014-english.pdf https://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/worldbank/document/eap/indonesia/indonesia-development-policy-review-2014-english.pdf microsoft word 09-badar jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 1, april 2013, hlm.80-89 estimasi nilai ekonomi wisata warisan budaya candi borobudur, indonesia hermawan badar pusat pengembangan ekonomi, fakultas ekonomi universitas muhammadiyah yogyakarta jalan lingkar selatan, bantul, yogyakarta 55183 indonesia, phone: +62 274 387656 e-mail korespondensi: hermawan_10@yahoo.com naskah diterima: oktober 2012; disetujui: maret 2013 abstract: the study aims to estimate the economic value and to know the travel fee, the individual income, distance, hours, ages, and experience of visiting the site, and the impact from the merapi’s explosion that impacts to the intensity of borobudur temple visiting intensity as the tourism spot. the estimation of economic value commits by using the travelling fee approach to the borobudur temple. the guest analysis that is used in this study is the multiple linier models. the result shows that the economic value of borobudur temple after the merapi’s eruption is rp18,172,041,544.00. the travel fee, the average monthly income, distance, work hour, age, the experience of visiting and the impact of merapi explosion impacts to visiting intensity of borobudur temple. keywords: economic value; travel cost method; visiting experience; explosion impact jel classification: l83, r58 abstrak: tujuan dari studi ini adalah untuk menghitung nilai ekonomi dan untuk mengetahui apakah biaya perjalanan, pendapatan individu, jarak, waktu jam, usia, pengalaman berkunjung dan dampak letusan merapi yang berpengaruh pada intensitas kunjungan candi borobudur sebagai objek wisata. perhitungan nilai ekonomi berkomitmen menggunakan pendekatan metode biaya perjalanan ke candi borobudur. analisis tamu dalam studi ini adalah regresi linier berganda. hasil studi ini menunjukkan bahwa nilai ekonomi dari candi borobudur setelah erupsi merapi adalah rp18.172.041.544, 00. biaya travel, pendapatan rata-rata per bulan, jarak, waktu kerja, usia, pengalaman mengunjungi dan dampak letusan merapi memiliki pengaruh terhadap intensitas kunjungan ke objek wisata, candi borobudur. kata kunci: nilai ekonomi; travel cost method; pengalaman berkunjung; dampak letusan klasifikasi jel: l83, r58 pendahuluan pariwisata dianggap sebagai salah satu sektor ekonomi paling penting bagi suatu negara. dengan adanya pembangunan dan perkembangan industri pariwisata di suatu wilayah, arus urbanisasi ke kota–kota besar dapat lebih ditekan. hal ini disebabkan karena pariwisata memiliki tiga aspek pengaruh yaitu aspek ekonomis sebagai sumber devisa dan pajak-pajak, aspek sosial sebagai penciptaan lapangan kerja dan aspek budaya (hartono, 1974). candi borobudur merupakan salah satu peninggalan sejarah kebesaran nenek moyang indonesia, dan merupakan salah satu wisata heritage. berdasarkan tabel 1, dapat dilihat bahwa objek wisata candi borobudur merupakan salah satu objek wisata yang sering dikunjungi wisatawan dibandingkan objek wisata lainnya di kabupaten magelang. keberadaan candi borobudur di kawasan gunung berapi merupakan ancaman yang telah terbukti dengan adanya erupsi merapi 2010 yang lalu. candi borobudur tertutup abu yang estimasi nilai ekonomi wisata ... (hermawan badar) 81 sangat tebal dan lingkungan sekitar candi terutama vegetasi mengalami kerusakan yang parah yang berdampak pada penurunan jumlah pengunjung baik dalam negeri maupun manca negara. tabel 1. jumlah pengunjung objek-objek wisata di jawa tengah, heritage tahun 2011 no objek pariwisata jumlah pengunjung 1 candi borobudur 1.241.800 2 candi mendut 19.476 3 candi pawon 15.420 4 ketep pass 159.142 sumber: dinas pariwisata dan kebudayaan kabupaten magelang tahun 2011 penurunan jumlah wisatawan terjadi karena kecemasan dan ketakutan akan bahaya susulan dari erupsi gunung merapi serta kondisi hujan abu yang menyebabkan sejumlah bandara ditutup. penutupan juga terjadi objek wisata candi borobudur karena batuan candi, vegetasi dan sarana infrastruktur di candi borobudur rusak dan tertutupnya badan candi oleh abu vulkanis dengan ketebalan hingga 3 cm yang tidak memungkinkan untuk dikunjungi. dalam tabel 1 dapat juga dilihat bahwa jumlah wisatawan sebelum dan sesudah erupsi merapi mengalami penurunan. penurunan ini dapat dilihat dari data bulan januari 2010 sampai oktober 2010 sebanyak 1.954.702 wisatawan dan mengalami penurunan yang sangat signifikan pada bulan november 2010 sampai agustus 2011 dengan jumlah wisatawan sebanyak 1320166 orang. pariwisata juga merupakan komoditas yang dibutuhkan oleh setiap individu, dikarenakan aktivitas berwisata bagi seorang individu dapat meningkatkan daya kreatif, menghilangkan kejenuhan kerja, relaksasi, berbelanja, bisnis, mengetahui peninggalan sejarah dan budaya suatu etnik tertentu, kesehatan dan pariwisata spiritualisme. dengan meningkatnya waktu luang sebagai akibat lebih singkatnya hari kerja dan didukung oleh meningkatnya penghasilan maka aktivitas kepariwisataan akan semakin meningkat. peningkatan keinginan untuk berwisata juga menguntungkan terhadap pemerintah daerah dimana objek wisata berada, dan akan mendapat pemasukan dari pendapatan setiap objek wisata. studi ini akan pada mengukur minat kunjungan para wisatawan ke candi borobudur pasca bencana erupsi merapi dan biaya yang akan dikeluarkan untuk kunjungan ke objek wisata tersebut dengan menggunakan total cost method (tcm). menurut diana (2010) konsep teori pendekatan travel cost method menilai manfaat yang diperoleh konsumen dalam memanfaatkan barang lingkungan walaupun tempat rekreasi tidak memungut bayaran masuk atau tarif pemanfaatan. konsumen datang dari berbagai daerah untuk menghabiskan waktu di tempat rekreasi tentu akan mengeluarkan biaya perjalanan ke tempat rekreasi tersebut. di sini tabel 2. jumlah kunjungan wisatawan candi borobudur sebelum dan sesudah erupsi merapi no. sebelum erupsi merapi pasca erupsi merapi bulan jumlah bulan jumlah 1 januari 263117 november 11799 2 februari 142002 desember 179558 3 maret 112198 januari 20326 4 april 183576 februari 92693 5 mei 314828 maret 95960 6 juni 389412 april 92693 7 juli 306451 mei 235700 8 agustus 85663 juni 301143 9 september 281556 juli 208840 10 oktober 129299 agustus 81454 total pengunjung 1954702 total pengunjung 1320166 sumber: dinas pariwisata dan kebudayaan kabupaten magelang tahun 2010-2011 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 1, april 2013: 80-89 82 pendekatan biaya perjalanan mulai berfungsi. karena makin jauh tempat tinggal seseorang yang datang memanfaatkan fasilitas tempat rekreasi maka makin kurang harapan pemanfaatan atau permintaan terhadap tempat rekreasi tersebut. metode biaya perjalanan (travel cost method) ini dilakukan dengan menggunakan informasi tentang jumlah uang yang dikeluarkan dan waktu yang digunakan untuk mencapai tempat rekreasi untuk mengestimasi besarnya nilai benefit dari upaya perubahan kualitas lingkungan dari tempat rekreasi yang dikunjungi (yakin,1997). salma dan susilowati (2004) telah meneliti tentang analisis permintaan objek wisata alam curug sewu kabupaten kendal dengan pendekatan travel cost. studi tersebut memberikan hasil nilai ekonomi curug sewu yaitu nilai surplus konsumen yang diperoleh sebesar rp.896.734,9 per individu per tahun atau rp224.198,7 per individu per satu kali kunjungan, sehingga dihitung total nilai ekonomi wisata alam curug sewu sebesar 12.377.025.750,00 dari hasil uji signifikansi diperoleh bahwa hanya dua variabel yang signifikan secara statistik yaitu variabel travel cost ke curug sewu dan variabel jarak, sedangkan variabel-variabel independen yang lain tidak mempengaruhi secara signifikan terhadap jumlah kunjungan objek wisata alam curug sewu kendal. sahlan (2008) telah melakukan valuasi ekonomi wisata alam otak kokok gading. berdasarkan studi tersebut diperoleh nilai ekonomi wisata alam otak kokok gading yaitu nilai surplus konsumen yaitu sebesar rp491.686.957,7 per tahun per 1.000 penduduk. hasil pengujian secara parsial menunjukkan bahwa dari enam variabel yang digunakan hanya dua variabel yang berpengaruh signifikan terhadap variabel terikat yaitu variabel karakteristik substitusi dan pendapatan individu. sampai saat ini pihak pengelola candi borobudur maupun pemerintah daerah kota magelang belum mengetahui secara pasti berapa besar dampak bencana erupsi merapi terhadap nilai ekonomi dari candi borobudur. berdasarkan data dan fakta di lapangan diketahui bahwa jumlah pengunjung yang datang ke lokasi wisata ini bisa dikatakan relatif menurun setelah terjadinya bencana erupsi merapi. oleh sebab itu, perlu dihitung nilai objek wisata candi borobudur setelah erupsi merapi dengan menghitung biaya perjalanan meliputi (biaya transportasi pulang pergi, biaya konsumsi, biaya dokumentasi, biaya tiket masuk, biaya parkir dan biaya lain-lain) untuk dapat menikmati jasa wisata tersebut. tulisan ini ingin mengetahui berbagai faktor yang berpengaruh terhadap intensitas berkunjung ke objek wisata candi borobudur. metode penelitian studi ini menggunakan data yang diperoleh langsung dari pengunjung atau wisatawan yang sedang berwisata mengunjungi objek wisata candi borobudur. terdapat 150 orang yang diinterview di dalam objek wisata candi borobudur, jawa tengah. teknik pengambilan sampel dengan menggunakan simple random sampling. dalam studi ini, nilai ekonomi wisata candi borobudur dengan menggunakan metode biaya perjalanan (travel cost method) yang meliputi biaya perjalanan ke candi borobudur, umur pengunjung, penghasilan rata-rata pengunjung, jarak, waktu kerja, jenis kelamin dan pengalaman individu pengunjung, untuk mengetahui nilai ekonomi wisata candi borobudur dengan biaya perjalanan digunakan langkah-langkah sebagai berikut: 1) menentukan jumlah kunjungan tahun 20102011 berdasarkan data yang ada di dinas pariwisata kabupten magelang. 2) menentukan jumlah kunjungan per 1000 penduduk (y): jkt x 100y= jp 1) di mana: y adalah jumlah kunjungan per 1000 penduduk; jkt adalah jumlah kunjungan total; jp adalah jumlah penduduk (diasumsikan tidak ada perubahan jumlah penduduk yang signifikan antara tahun 2010 sampai dengan 2011). 3) menentukan biaya perjalanan rata-rata (xii) yang di tentukan berdasarkan biaya perjalanan responden (bpi). ii bpi x ni  2) estimasi nilai ekonomi wisata ... (hermawan badar) 83 di mana: xii adalah biaya perjalanan rata-rata; bpi adalah biaya perjalanan responden; ni adalah jumlah pengunjung/responden. 4) untuk menentukan nilai ekonomi dengan kunjungan perjalanan per 1000 penduduk dengan formula sebagai berikut (djijono, 2000). 1.000 nilai rata-rata x jumlah penduduk nilai total = 3) di mana: nilai rata-rata adalah biaya perjalanan rata-rata; jumlah penduduk adalah jumlah penduduk jawa tengah 2010 (diasumsikan tidak ada perubahan jumlah penduduk yang signifikan antara tahun 2010 sampai dengan 2011) model untuk analisis regresi dengan menggunakan pendekatan ols adalah sebagai berikut: y = β0 + β1 ln x1 + β2 ln x2 + β3 ln x3 + β4 ln x4 + β5 ln x5 + β6 x6 + β7 x7 + еi 4) keterangan: y adalah intensitas berkunjung ke objek wisata candi borobudur (kali); x1 adalah biaya perjalanan tempat wisata candi borobudur berupa biaya transportasi, biaya konsumsi, karcis masuk, biaya parkir, dan biaya lain-lain (rp); x2 adalah penghasilan pengunjung ratarata per bulan (rp); x3 adalah jarak tempat tinggal pengunjung dengan objek wisata candi borobudur (km); x4 adalah waktu kerja (jam/ minggu); x5 adalah umur pengunjung (tahun); x6 adalah pengalaman pengunjung (dummy, 0=belum pernah, 1=pernah); x7 adalah dampak erupsi merapi (dummy, 0=tidak berminat berkunjung kembali setelah erupsi merapi, 1=berminat berkunjung kembali setelah erupsi merapi). hasil dan pembahasan karakteristik responden pengunjung tempat wisata candi borobudur studi ini menggunakan data primer dengan melakukan wawancara kepada 150 responden masyarakat pengunjung objek wisata candi borobudur. karakteristik responden dalam studi ini dapat disajikan pada tabel 3. tabel 3. karakteristik responden dasar klasifikasi sub klasifikasi jumlah prosentase umur < 20 tahun 20-30 tahun 30-40 tahun > 40 tahun 15 77 37 21 10,0% 51,3% 24,7% 14,0% jumlah 150 100% jenis kelamin laki-laki perempuan 84 66 56,0% 44,0% jumlah 150 100% pendidikan smp sma diploma sarjana pascasarjana 4 49 26 66 5 2,7% 32,7% 17,3% 44,0% 3,3% jumlah 150 100% pekerjaan pns pegawai swasta wiraswasta pelajar/ mahasiswa ibu rumah tangga lainnya 21 49 23 41 9 7 14,0% 32,7% 15,3% 27,3% 6,0% 4,7% jumlah 150 100% penghasilan < rp 1.000.000 rp 1.000.000 rp 3.000.000 rp 3.000.000 rp 5.000.000 > rp 5.000.0000 53 47 36 14 35,3% 31,3% 24,0% 9,3% jumlah 150 100% jumlah tanggungan < 3 orang 3-5 orang 6-8 orang > 8 orang 61 28 1 60 40,7% 18,7% 0,7% 40,0% jumlah 150 100% tabel 3 menunjukkan bahwa dari 150 responden yang diwawancarai, terdapat 51 persen reponden berusia 20-30 tahun, sedangkan sebanyak 24,7 persen berusia 30-40 tahun. responden yang berjenis kelamin laki-laki jumlahnya lebih banyak dibandingkan perempuan, yaitu sebanyak 56 persen, sedangkan sebanyak 44 persen berjenis kelamin perempuan. pendidikan responden sebagian besar sarjana yaitu sebanyak 44 persen, sedangkan sebanyak 32,7 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 1, april 2013: 80-89 84 persen berpendidikan sma. pekerjaan responden kebanyakan pegawai swasta yaitu sebanyak 32,7 persen, sedangkan pelajar/mahasiswa sebanyak 27,3 persen. prosentase terbesar dari penghasilan responden adalah kurang dari rp1.000.000 yaitu sebanyak 35,3 persen, sedangkan yang berpenghasilan antara: rp1.000.000–rp3.000.000 sebanyak 31,3 persen. sebagian besar responden memiliki tanggungan keluarga kurang dari 3 orang yaitu sebanyak 40,7 persen, sedangkan 40 persen memiliki tanggungan keluarga lebih dari 8 orang. perspepsi responden pengunjung tempat wisata candi borobudur persepsi responden pengunjung objek wisata candi borobudur diuraikan dalam tabel 4. tabel 4. pendapat tentang candi borobudur persepsi frekuensi persentase sangat menarik 37 24,7% menarik 106 70,7% netral 7 4,7% tidak menarik 0% sangat tidak menarik 0% jumlah 150 100% sumber: data primer tahun 2011 berdasarkan tabel 4 diketahui bahwa sebagian besar responden berpendapat objek wisata candi borobudur menarik sebanyak 70,7 persen. sebanyak 24,7 persen responden berpendapat candi borobudur sangat menarik. tabel 5. sarana dan prasarana di objek wisata candi borobudur persepsi frekuensi prosentase sangat baik 19 12,7% baik 122 81,3% netral 9 6,0% tidak baik 0% sangat tidak baik 0% jumlah 150 100% sumber: data primer tahun 2011 berdasarkan tabel 5 diketahui bahwa sebagian besar responden berpendapat sarana dan prasarana di objek wisata candi borobudur baik sebanyak 81,3 persen. sebanyak 12,7 persen responden berpendapat sarana dan prasarana di objek wisata candi borobudur sangat baik. tabel 6. fasilitas tempat ibadah di objek wisata candi borobudur persepsi frekuensi prosentase sangat baik 13 8,7% baik 110 73,3% netral 25 16,7% tidak baik 2 1,3% sangat tidak baik 0% jumlah 150 100% sumber : data primer tahun 2011 berdasarkan tabel 6 diketahui bahwa sebagian besar responden berpendapat fasilitas tempat ibadah di objek wisata candi borobudur baik sebanyak 73,3 persen. sebanyak 16,7 persen berpendapat netral terhadap fasilitas tempat ibadah di objek wisata candi borobudur. tabel 7. fasilitas tempat mck di objek wisata candi borobudur persepsi frekuensi prosentase sangat baik 6 4,0% baik 110 73,3% netral 29 19,3% tidak baik 5 3,3% sangat tidak baik 0% jumlah 150 100% sumber : data primer tahun 2011 berdasarkan tabel 7 bahwa diketahui sebagian besar responden berpendapat fasilitas tempat mck di objek wisata candi borobudur baik sebanyak 73,3 persen. sebanyak 19,3 persen berpendapat netral terhadap fasilitas tempat mck di objek wisata candi borobudur. estimasi nilai ekonomi wisata ... (hermawan badar) 85 tabel 8. kesan tentang pedagang di objek wisata candi borobudur persepsi frekuensi prosentase sangat mengganggu 11 7,3% mengganggu 70 46,7% netral 58 38,7% tidak mengganggu 10 6,7% sangat tidak mengganggu 1 0,7% jumlah 150 100% sumber: data primer tahun 2011 berdasarkan tabel 8 diketahui bahwa kesan responden tentang pedagang di objek wisata candi borobudur sebagian besar adalah mengganggu sebanyak 46,7 persen. sebanyak 38,7 persen memiliki kesan netral terhadap pedagang di objek wisata candi borobudur. tabel 9. kesan tentang pembersihan candi setelah erupsi persepsi frekuensi prosentase sangat mengganggu 7 4,7% mengganggu 39 26,0% netral 69 46,0% tidak mengganggu 30 20,0% sangat tidak mengganggu 5 3,3% jumlah 150 100% sumber: data primer tahun 2011 berdasarkan tabel 9 diketahui kesan responden tentang pembersihan candi setelah erupsi sebagian besar adalah netral sebanyak 46 persen. sebanyak 26 persen memiliki kesan bahwa pembersihan candi setelah erupsi adalah mengganggu. pengunjung candi borobudur yang berusia kurang dari 20 tahun sebagian besar memiliki persepsi baik terhadap objek wisata candi borobudur sebanyak 6,7 persen. pengunjung berusia 20-30 tahun sebagian besar memiliki persepsi baik terhadap objek wisata candi borobudur sebanyak 44 persen. pengunjung berusia 30-40 tahun sebagian besar memiliki persepsi baik terhadap objek wisata candi borobudur sebanyak 22 persen. pengunjung berusia lebih dari 40 tahun sebagian besar memiliki persepsi baik terhadap objek wisata candi borobudur sebanyak 10 persen. pengunjung candi borobudur yang berjenis kelamin laki-laki sebagian besar memiliki persepsi baik terhadap objek wisata candi borobudur sebanyak 45,3 persen. sedangkan pengunjung berjenis kelamin perempuan sebagian besar memiliki persepsi baik terhadap objek wisata candi borobudur sebanyak 37,3 persen. pengunjung candi borobudur yang berpendidikan smp tahun sebagian besar memiliki persepsi baik terhadap objek wisata candi borobudur sebanyak 2 persen. pengunjung berpendidikan sma sebagian besar memiliki persepsi baik terhadap objek wisata candi borobudur sebanyak 25,3 persen. pengunjung berpendidikan diploma sebagian besar memiliki persepsi baik terhadap objek wisata candi borobudur sebanyak 14 persen. pengunjung berpendidikan sarjana sebagian besar memiliki persepsi baik terhadap objek wisata candi borobudur sebanyak 38,7 persen. pengunjung berpendidikan pascasarjana sebagian besar memiliki persepsi baik terhadap objek wisata candi borobudur sebanyak 2,7 prsen. sebanyak 12,7 persen pengunjung yang bekerja sebagai pns sebagian besar memiliki persepsi baik terhadap objek wisata candi borobudur. pengunjung bekerja sebagai pegawai swasta sebagian besar memiliki persepsi baik terhadap objek wisata candi borobudur sebanyak 26 persen. pengunjung bekerja sebagai wiraswasta sebagian besar memiliki persepsi baik terhadap objek wisata candi borobudur sebanyak 13,3 persen. pengunjung pelajar/mahasiswa sebagian besar memiliki persepsi baik terhadap objek wisata candi borobudur sebanyak 20,7 persen. pengunjung ibu rumah tangga sebagian besar memiliki persepsi baik terhadap objek wisata candi borobudur sebanyak 5,3 persen. pengunjung yang memiliki pekerjaan lainnya sebagian besar memiliki persepsi baik terhadap objek wisata candi borobudur sebanyak 4,7 persen. pengunjung candi borobudur yang berpenghasilan kurang dari rp1.000.000 sebagian besar memiliki persepsi baik terhadap objek wisata candi borobudur sebanyak 28,7 persen pengunjung berpenghasilan antara: rp1.000.000-rp3.000.000 sebagian besar memijurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 1, april 2013: 80-89 86 liki persepsi baik terhadap objek wisata candi borobudur sebanyak 25,3 persen. pengunjung berpenghasilan rp3.000.000-rp5.000.000 sebagian besar memiliki persepsi baik terhadap objek wisata candi borobudur sebanyak 21,3 persen. pengunjung berpenghasilan lebih dari rp5.000.000 sebagian besar memiliki persepsi baik terhadap objek wisata candi borobudur sebanyak 7,3 persen. sebanyak 6,7 persenng yang berusia kurang dari 20 tahun sebagian besar tidak berminat berkunjung kembali ke objek wisata candi borobudur setelah erupsi merapi sebanyak 6,7 persen. pengunjung berusia 20-30 tahun sebagian besar tidak berminat berkunjung kembali ke objek wisata candi borobudur setelah erupsi merapi ebanyak 34 persen persen. pengunjung berusia 30-40 tahun sebagian besar tidak berminat berkunjung kembali ke objek wisata candi borobudur setelah erupsi merapi sebanyak 18,7 persen. pengunjung berusia lebih dari 40 tahun sebagian besar tidak berminat berkunjung kembali ke objek wisata candi borobudur setelah erupsi merapi sebanyak 10,7 persen. pengunjung candi borobudur yang berjenis kelamin laki-laki sebagian besar tidak berminat berkunjung kembali ke objek wisata candi borobudur setelah erupsi merapi sebanyak 36,7 persen. sedangkan pengunjung berjenis kelamin perempuan sebagian besar tidak berminat berkunjung kembali ke objek wisata candi borobudur setelah erupsi merapi sebanyak 33,3 persen. pengunjung yang berpendidikan smp tahun sebagian besar berminat berkunjung kembali ke objek wisata candi borobudur setelah erupsi merapi sebanyak 2 persen. pengunjung berpendidikan sma sebagian besar tidak berminat berkunjung kembali ke objek wisata candi borobudur setelah erupsi merapi sebanyak 21,3 persen. pengunjung berpendidikan diploma sebagian besar tidak berminat berkunjung kembali ke objek wisata candi borobudur setelah erupsi merapi sebanyak 14 persen. pengunjung berpendidikan sarjana sebagian besar tidak berminat berkunjung kembali ke objek wisata candi borobudur setelah erupsi merapi sebanyak 32,7 persen. pengunjung berpendidikan pascasarjana sebagian besar berminat berkunjung kembali ke objek wisata candi borobudur setelah erupsi merapi sebanyak 2 persen. sebanyak 10 persen pengunjung candi borobudur yang bekerja sebagai pns sebagian besar tidak berminat berkunjung kembali ke objek wisata candi borobudur setelah erupsi merapi. pengunjung bekerja sebagai pegawai swasta sebagian besar tidak berminat berkunjung kembali ke objek wisata candi borobudur setelah erupsi merapi sebanyak 21,3 persen. pengunjung bekerja sebagai wiraswasta sebagian besar tidak berminat berkunjung kembali ke objek wisata candi borobudur setelah erupsi merapi sebanyak 10 percetakan. pengunjung pelajar/mahasiswa sebagian besar tidak berminat berkunjung kembali ke objek wisata candi borobudur setelah erupsi merapi sebanyak 22,7 persen. pengunjung ibu rumah tangga sebagian besar tidak berminat berkunjung kembali ke objek wisata candi borobudur setelah erupsi merapi sebanyak 3,3 persen. pengunjung yang memiliki pekerjaan lainnya sebagian besar tidak berminat berkunjung kembali ke objek wisata candi borobudur setelah erupsi merapi sebanyak 2,7 persen. sebanyak 24,7 persen pengunjung candi borobudur yang berpenghasilan kurang dari rp1.000.000 sebagian besar tidak berminat berkunjung kembali ke objek wisata candi borobudur setelah erupsi merapi. pengunjung berpenghasilan antara rp1.000.000-rp3.000.000 sebagian besar tidak berminat berkunjung kembali ke objek wisata candi borobudur setelah erupsi merapi sebanyak 18,7 persen. pengunjung berpenghasilan rp3.000.000-rp5.000.000 sebagian besar tidak berminat berkunjung kembali ke objek wisata candi borobudur setelah erupsi merapi sebanyak 20 persen. pengunjung berpenghasilan lebih dari rp5.000.000 sebagian besar tidak berminat berkunjung kembali ke objek wisata candi borobudur setelah erupsi merapi sebanyak 6,7 persen. perhitungan nilai ekonomi wisata candi borobudur dengan menggunakan metode biaya perjalanan (travel cost method) sebagai berikut: nilai rata-rata x jumlah penduduk nilai total = 1.000 nilai total = x561.200 32.380.687 1.000 estimasi nilai ekonomi wisata ... (hermawan badar) 87 berdasarkan perhitungan di atas, total nilai ekonomi wisata candi borobudur adalah sebesar rp18.172.041.544,00. tabel 10. hasil perhitungan regresi variabel koefisien t-stat keterangan konstanta lnx1 lnx3 lnx3 lnx4 lnx5 x6 x7 -2,830 -0,677 0,251 -0,365 0,555 0,752 0,464 -0,182 -2,201 -2,850 2,488 -3,828 2,620 4,311 4,617 -1,947 signifikan signifikan signifikan signifikan signifikan signifikan signifikan r2 f statistic prob (fstat) 0,586 28,657 0,000 hasil perhitungan di atas diperoleh persamaan regresi sebagai berikut: lny = -2,830 0,677 lnx1 + 0,251 lnx2 – 0,365 lnx3 + 0,555 lnx4 + 0,752 lnx5+ 0,464 x6 0,182 x7 berdasarkan hasil perhitungan di atas, maka hasil koefisien regresinya dapat diinterpretasikan sebagai berikut: 1) nilai konstanta (0) = -2,830 dapat diartikan apabila semua variabel bebas (biaya perjalanan, penghasilan rata-rata per bulan pengunjung, jarak tempat tinggal pengunjung dengan objek wisata, waktu kerja, umur pengunjung, pengalaman pengunjung dan dampak erupsi merapi) dianggap konstan atau tidak mengalami perubahan, maka intensitas berkunjung ke objek wisata candi borobudur akan sebesar anti ln -2,830 atau sebesar 0,093 kali. 2) nilai koefisien 1 = -0,677, berarti jika biaya perjalanan berubah 1 persen, maka intensitas berkunjung ke objek wisata candi borobudur akan mengalami perubahan sebesar 0,677 persen, asumsi variabel yang lain tetap. koefisien biaya perjalanan bernilai negatif, maka biaya perjalanan mempunyai pengaruh negatif terhadap intensitas berkunjung ke objek wisata candi borobudur. apabila biaya perjalanan meningkat 1 persen, maka intensitas berkunjung ke objek wisata candi borobudur akan mengalami penurunan sebesar 0,677 persen. biaya perjalanan yang tinggi pada suatu daerah tujuan wisata maka akan memberikan imbas/ timbal balik pada wisatawan yang akan bepergian/calon wisata, sehingga permintaan wisata pun akan berkurang begitupula sebaliknya. hal ini menjelaskan bahwa konsumen (yaitu pengunjung candi borobudur) memilih untuk lebih banyak melakukan kunjungan wisata pada biaya perjalanan yang lebih rendah sebagaimana hubungan antara harga dan jumlah barang yang dibeli (hukum permintaan dalam teori ekonomi). 3) nilai koefisien 2 = 0,251, berarti jika penghasilan rata-rata per bulan pengunjung berubah 1 persen, maka intensitas berkunjung ke objek wisata candi borobudur akan mengalami perubahan sebesar 0,251 persen, asumsi variabel yang lain tetap. koefisien penghasilan ratarata per bulan pengunjung bernilai positif, maka penghasilan rata-rata per bulan pengunjung mempunyai pengaruh positif terhadap intensitas berkunjung ke objek wisata candi borobudur. apabila penghasilan rata-rata per bulan pengunjung meningkat 1 persen, maka intensitas berkunjung ke objek wisata candi borobudur akan mengalami peningkatan sebesar 0,251 persen. apabila pendapatan individu tinggi, maka kemampuan individu untuk berkunjung ke objek wisata sebagai tempat berlibur akan semakin tinggi, begitu juga sebaliknya apabila pendapatan individu rendah, maka kecenderungan untuk memilih daerah tujuan wisata akan semakin rendah. 4) nilai koefisien 3 = -0,365, berarti jika jarak tempat tinggal pengunjung dengan objek wisata berubah 1 persen, maka intensitas berkunjung ke objek wisata candi borobudur akan mengalami perubahan sebesar 0,365 persen, asumsi variabel yang lain tetap. koefisien jarak tempat tinggal pengunjung dengan objek wisata bernilai negatif, maka jarak tempat tinggal pengunjung dengan objek wisata mempunyai pengaruh negatif terhadap intensitas berkunjung ke objek wisata candi borobudur. apabila jarak tempat tinggal pengunjung dengan objek wisata meningkat 1 persen, maka intensitas berkunjung ke objek wisata candi borobudur akan mengalami penurunan sebesar 0,365 persen. jarak tempat tinggal yang jauh berarti semakin jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 1, april 2013: 80-89 88 banyak pengorbanan (waktu dan tenaga) yang harus diberikan individu untuk mencapai lokasi wisata. hal ini akan mengurangi intensitas untuk berkunjung ke objek wisata. 5) nilai koefisien 4 = 0,555, berarti jika waktu kerja berubah 1 persen, maka intensitas berkunjung ke objek wisata candi borobudur akan mengalami perubahan sebesar 0,555 persen, asumsi variabel yang lain tetap. koefisien waktu kerja bernilai positif, maka waktu kerja mempunyai pengaruh positif terhadap intensitas berkunjung ke objek wisata candi borobudur. apabila waktu kerja meningkat 1 persen, maka intensitas berkunjung ke objek wisata candi borobudur akan mengalami peningkatan sebesar 0,555 persen. individu cenderung melakukan pertukaran antara kerja yang dibayar dengan waktu menganggur. setiap kombinasi dari waktu kerja dibayar dengan waktu menganggur menghasilkan sejumlah pendapatan atau anggaran yang dapat dibelanjakan pada barang dan jasa yang berbeda (termasuk pariwisata). 6) nilai koefisien 5 = 0,752, berarti jika umur pengunjung berubah 1 persen, maka intensitas berkunjung ke objek wisata candi borobudur akan mengalami perubahan sebesar 0,752 persen, asumsi variabel yang lain tetap. koefisien umur pengunjung bernilai positif, maka umur pengunjung mempunyai pengaruh positif terhadap intensitas berkunjung ke objek wisata candi borobudur. apabila umur pengunjung meningkat 1 persen, maka intensitas berkunjung ke objek wisata candi borobudur akan mengalami peningkatan sebesar 0,752 persen. candi borobudur adalah objek wisata sejarah guna menambah pengetahuan tentang budaya masa lalu. semakin tua umur seseorang, maka keingintahuan dan penggalian pengetahuan sebagai khasanah pola pikir budayanya akan semakin meningkat. hal ini akan meningkatkan intensitas untuk berkunjung ke objek wisata candi borobudur. 7) nilai koefisien 6 = 0,464, berarti jika pengunjung telah berpengalaman, maka intensitas berkunjung ke objek wisata candi borobudur akan mengalami perubahan sebesar 0,464 persen, asumsi variabel yang lain tetap. koefisien pengalaman pengunjung bernilai positif, maka pengalaman pengunjung mempunyai pengaruh positif terhadap intensitas berkunjung ke objek wisata candi borobudur. apabila ada pengalaman pengunjung, maka intensitas berkunjung ke objek wisata candi borobudur akan mengalami peningkatan sebesar 0,464 persen. individu yang pernah berkunjung ke objek wisata candi borobudur dan memperoleh pengalaman yang baik akan berminat untuk melakukan kunjungan ulang ke objek wisata candi borobudur. 8) nilai koefisien 7 = -0,182, berarti terjadinya erupsi merapi, maka intensitas berkunjung ke objek wisata candi borobudur akan mengalami perubahan sebesar 0,182 persen, asumsi variabel yang lain tetap. koefisien dampak erupsi merapi bernilai negatif, maka dampak erupsi merapi mempunyai pengaruh negatif terhadap intensitas berkunjung ke objek wisata candi borobudur. apabila terjadi erupsi merapi, maka intensitas berkunjung ke objek wisata candi borobudur akan mengalami penurunan sebesar 0,182 persen. erupsi merapi membawa dampak yang kurang menguntungkan bagi objek-objek wisata di sekitar gunung merapi. kawasan wisata menjadi kotor dan di sana-sini harus dilakukan pembersihan sehingga merusak pemandangan dan mengganggu aktivitas wisatawan. kondisi ini akan mengurangi intensitas wisatawan untuk berkunjung ke objek wisata candi borobudur. hal ini dapat ditangani dengan adanya perencanaan dan manajemen pariwisata yang baik. saptutyningsih (2004:165-183) menyatakan bahwa pariwisata yang terencana dan menggunakan manajemen yang baik dapat meningkatkan intensitas kunjungan wisata. simpulan biaya perjalanan berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap intensitas berkunjung ke objek wisata candi borobudur. biaya perjalanan yang tinggi pada suatu daerah tujuan wisata maka permintaan wisata pun akan berkurang begitu pula sebaliknya. penghasilan rata-rata per bulan pengunjung berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap intensitas berkunjung ke objek wisata candi borobudur. apabila pendapatan individu tinggi, maka kemampuan individu untuk berkunjung ke objek wisata sebagai tempat berlibur akan estimasi nilai ekonomi wisata ... (hermawan badar) 89 semakin tinggi, begitu juga sebaliknya jarak tempat tinggal pengunjung dengan objek wisata berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap intensitas berkunjung ke objek wisata candi borobudur. jarak tempat tinggal yang jauh berarti semakin banyak pengorbanan (waktu dan tenaga) yang harus diberikan individu untuk mencapai lokasi wisata sehingga akan mengurangi intensitas untuk berkunjung ke objek wisata. waktu kerja berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap intensitas berkunjung ke objek wisata candi borobudur. semakin banyak waktu kerja berarti semakin besar penghasilan yang diperoleh sehingga dapat dibelanjakan pada barang dan jasa yang berbeda (termasuk pariwisata). umur pengunjung berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap intensitas berkunjung ke objek wisata candi borobudur. semakin tua umur seseorang, maka keingintahuan dan penggalian pengetahuan sebagai khasanah pola pikir budayanya akan semakin meningkat, maka intensitas untuk berkunjung ke objek wisata candi borobudur. pengalaman pengunjung berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap intensitas berkunjung ke objek wisata candi borobudur. individu yang yang memperoleh pengalaman yang menyenangkan di objek wisata candi boroburu akan berminat untuk melakukan kunjungan ulang ke objek wisata ini. dampak erupsi merapi berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap intensitas berkunjung ke objek wisata candi borobudur. terjadinya erupsi merapi mengakibatkan erupsi merapi membawa dampak yang kurang menguntungkan yaitu kawasan wisata menjadi kotor dan di sana-sini harus dilakukan pembersihan sehingga merusak pemandangan dan mengganggu aktivitas wisatawan, kondisi ini akan mengurangi intensitas wisatawan untuk berkunjung. penentuan kebijakan harga atau tarif seperti kenaikan tiket masuk sebaiknya diimbangi dengan penganekaragaman produk wisata seperti pembenahan infrastruktur, lebih sering dilakukan pementasan seni/budaya serta penggalian dan pemanfaatan kembali keunikan yang terdapat di candi borobudur. daftar pustaka purwanto, arif budi. (1998). valuasi ekonomi wana wisata taman hutan raya juanda dengan menggunakan pendekatan travel cost. tesis program pascasarjana itb, bandung. igunawati, diana. (2010). analisis permintaan objek wisata tirta waduk cacaban, kabupaten tegal. skripsi. fakultas ekonomi. universitas diponegoro. semarang. djijono. (2002). valuasi ekonomi menggunakan metode travel cost taman wisata hutan di taman wisata wan abdulrahman, provinsi lampung. makalah penganar falsafah sains (pps702). http://rudict. tripod.com/ sem023/adnan_wantasem.html. hartono. (1974). ekonomi pariwisata. jakarta: erlangga. hoevenagel, r. (1994). an assessment of the contingent valuation. dalam pething. r., 1994. valuing envormeint methodological and measurment issues. london: kluwer academic publisher. salma, i.a. dan susilowati, i. (2004). analisis permintaan objek wisata alam curug sewu, kabupaten kendal dengan pendekatan travel cost. jurnal dinamika pembangunan, vol 1 no. 2/des 2004. murty m. n. and menkhaus, s. m. (1994). economic and other benefits of wildlife preservation: a case study of keoladeo national park, bharatpur, rajasthan. working paper. new delhi, india: institute of economic growth. saptutyningsih, e. (2004). the tourism carrying capacity. jurnal ekonomi & studi pembangunan, vol. 5, no.2, oktober 2004: 165183. sahlan. (2008). valuasi ekonomi wisata alam otak kodok fading dengan pendekatan biaya perjalanan. skripsi program sarjana universitas mataram. yakin, a. (1997). ekonomi sumberdaya dan lingkungan. jakarta: akademika presindo. microsoft word 02-bayu jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 2, oktober 2013, hlm.101-119 desentralisasi fiskal dan pertumbuhan ekonomi : sebelum dan sesudah era desentralisasi fiskal di indonesia bayu kharisma fakultas ekonomi, universitas padjajaran jalan dipati ukur no.35 bandung, jawa barat, indonesia e-mail korespondensi: bayu_kharisma@yahoo.com naskah diterima: desember 2012; disetujui: september 2013 abstract: the regional autonomy in indonesia gives the implication to the shift of authority between the center and local government in many sectors. the regional autonomy also makes the decentralization that related with the local financing management, the economy planning including the local planning and other planning that shifted from the central government to the local government. the study aims to know the effect of fiscal decentralization from the income and spending aspect towards the local economic development in indonesia (gas and oil nationally). the method analysis in this study is the panel data from 1995-2000 and 20012004.the result shows that before decentralization on the year of 1995-2000, the fiscal decentralization whether from income or spending aspect has negative influence to the economy growth. coming into decentralization from 2001-2004, the fiscal decentralization on supporting the economy development, whether from government income or spending is increasing. but the fiscal decentralization is exceeding the spending aspect compare to the income, whether in national level, with oil and gas or without oil and gas, inside java or outside java. keywords: regional autonomy; fiscal decentralization; panel data; economic growth jel classification: e62, o23, o11 abstrak: pelaksanaan otonomi daerah di indonesia membawa implikasi pada pelimpahan kewenangan antara pusat dan daerah dalam berbagai bidang. adanya otonomi daerah maka terjadi desentralisasi yang menyangkut pengelolaan keuangan daerah, perencanaan ekonomi termasuk menyusun program-program pembangunan daerah dan perencanaan lainnya yang dilimpahkan dari pusat ke daerah. studi ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh desentralisasi fiskal dari sisi penerimaan dan pengeluaran terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah provinsi di indonesia (nasional dengan migas dan tanpa migas, di jawa dan di luar jawa). metode analisis yang digunakan dalam penulisan studi ini menggunakan data panel secara terpisah pada periode 1995-2000 dan 2001-2004. hasil analisa menunjukkan bahwa sebelum pelaksanaan era desentralisasi periode 1995-2000, pengaruh desentralisasi fiskal dari sisi penerimaan dan pengeluaran berpengaruh negatif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, baik untuk tingkat nasional dengan migas dan tanpa migas, di jawa dan di luar jawa. memasuki era desentralisasi selama kurun waktu 2001-2004, pengaruh desentralisasi fiskal dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi, baik melalui sisi penerimaan maupun pengeluaran mengalami peningkatan dibandingkan sebelum era desentralisasi. namun pengaruh desentralisasi fiskal tersebut jauh lebih besar melalui sisi pengeluaran dibandingkan sisi penerimaan daerah, baik di tingkat nasional dengan migas dan tanpa migas, di jawa maupun di luar jawa. kata kunci: otonomi daerah; desentralisasi fiskal; data panel; pertumbuhan ekonomi. klasifikasi jel: e62, o23, o11 jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 2, oktober 2013: 101-119 102 pendahuluan desentralisasi secara umum menggambarkan adanya transfer kompetensi dan kemampuan serta tanggung jawab untuk menyelenggarakan kewajiban pelayanan publik dari pemerintah pusat ke daerah yang lebih baik. selain itu, desentralisasi dapat diartikan sebagai pemindahan fungsi-fungsi dan sumber daya dari pemerintah pusat ke pemerintah daerah. dalam hal fungsi, di mana penyediaan fungsi atau pelayanan yang diselenggarakan oleh pemerintah pusat harus memberikan manfaat dalam lingkup perekonomian yang lebih luas. namun di sisi lain, pemerintah daerah harus mampu menyediakan barang publik yang bersifat lokal. oleh karena itu, dengan adanya desentralisasi diharapkan pemerintah daerah dapat memberikan pelayanan publik yang lebih baik dan menciptakan proses pengambilan keputusan publik lebih demokratis. proses desentralisasi dapat diwujudkan antara lain dengan pelimpahan kewenangan kepada tingkat pemerintahan yang lebih rendah untuk melakukan pembelanjaan, menggali potensi penerimaan daerah secara mandiri, terbentuknya dewan yang dipilih oleh rakyat, kepala daerah yang dipilih oleh legislatif di daerah dan adanya bantuan dalam bentuk transfer dari pemerintah pusat (sidik., 2002:1). timbulnya kenginan diterapkannya proses desentralisasi di berbagai negara di dunia, khususnya di negara-negara berkembang dipengaruhi oleh beberapa faktor, antara lain latar belakang atau pengalaman suatu negara, peranannya dalam globalisasi dunia, kemunduran dalam pembangunan ekonomi, tuntutan terhadap perubahan tingkat pelayanan masyarakat, tanda-tanda adanya disintegrasi diberbagai negara serta banyaknya kegagalan yang dialami oleh pemerintahan sentralistik dalam memberikan pelayanan masyarakat yang efektif. pada tahun 2001 indonesia telah memasuki era baru dalam tata pemerintahan, yaitu pelaksanaan otonomi daerah. dengan adanya kondisi tersebut maka pada saat itulah uu no. 22 tahun 1999 tentang pemerintahan daerah dan uu no. 25 tahun 1999 tentang perimbangan keuangan pemerintah pusat dan daerah mulai diberlakukan. pelaksanaan otonomi daerah dalam kedua uu tersebut pada dasarnya merupakan tanggapan terhadap aspirasi adanya keinginan format baru mengenai hubungan antara pemerintah pusat dan daerah di indonesia yang berimplikasi pada pelimpahan kewenangan dalam berbagai bidang. sejalan dengan pembagian kewenangan tersebut maka pengaturan pembiayaan daerah dilakukan berdasarkan asas penyelenggaraan pemerintahan. pembiayaan penyelenggaraan pemerintahan berdasarkan asas desentralisasi dibebankan melalui apbd, pembiayaan penyelenggaraan pemerintahan dalam rangka pelaksanaan asas dekonsentrasi dilakukan atas beban apbn dan pembiayaan penyelenggaraan pemerintahan dalam rangka tugas pembantuan dibiayai beban anggaran tingkat pemerintahan yang menugaskan. di samping itu, penyelenggaraan pemerintahan dan pelayanan kepada masyarakat berdasarkan asas desentralisasi maka daerah diberikan kewenangan untuk memungut pajak atau retribusi (tax assignment) dan pemberian bagi hasil penerimaan (revenue sharing) serta transfer keuangan (grant) atau sering disebut dana perimbangan. hal penting yang tertuang dalam uu no. 22 tahun 1999 adalah pembagian kewenangan dan fungsi (power sharing) antara pemerintah pusat dan daerah. sementara itu, uu no. 25 tahun 1999 menyangkut masalah desentralisasi fiskal, yaitu pengaturan pembagian antara sumber daya keuangan (financial sharing) antara pusat dan daerah merupakan konsekuensi logis dari adanya pembagian kewenangan tersebut. uu nomor 25 tahun 1999 yang berisi tentang perimbangan keuangan antara pemerintah pusat dan daerah didesain dengan menggunakan prinsip money follows function atau “uang mengikuti kewenangan”. artinya, jika kewenangan dilimpahkan ke daerah maka uang untuk mengelola kewenangan pun harus dilimpahkan ke daerah. dengan dilaksanakannya desentralisasi fiskal di indonesia maka pemerintah daerah harus mampu berperan dalam mengelola keuangannya secara mandiri sehingga seluruh potensi harus dioptimalkan melalui mekanisme perencanaan yang efektif dan efisien. hal ini menjadi tantangan bagi seluruh wilayah otonom di indonesia, baik di tingkat provinsi maupun kabupaten dan kota. dengan demikian, peran desentralisasi fiskal dan pertumbuhan... (bayu kharisma) 103 pemerintah daerah beserta partisipasi masyarakatnya harus secara bersama-sama mengambil inisiatif dalam membangun daerahnya, termasuk menggali potensi sumber-sumber keuangan daerahnya untuk memenuhi kebutuhan pembiayaan penyelenggaran pemerintahan dan pembangunan di daerah. pembangunan ekonomi daerah pada dasarnya merupakan bagian yang tidak dapat dipisahkan dari prinsip otonomi daerah. tiaptiap daerah tersebut mempunyai hak dan kewajiban mengatur dan mengurus sendiri urusan pemerintahannya untuk meningkatkan efisiensi dan efektifitas penyelenggaraan pemerintahan serta pelayanan kepada masyarakat berdasarkan prinsip transparansi, partisipasi dari masyarakat dan pertanggungjawaban kepada masyarakat. dalam upaya mendukung penyelenggaraan otonomi daerah maka penyerahan, pelimpahan dan penugasan urusan pemerintahan kepada daerah harus dilakukan secara nyata dan bertanggung jawab serta diikuti dengan pengaturan, pembagian dan pemanfaatan sumber daya nasional secara adil. desentralisasi pada dasarnya tidak mudah untuk didefinisikan, karena menyangkut berbagai dimensi yang beragam, khususnya menyangkut aspek fiskal, politik, perubahan administrasi dan sistem pemerintahan serta pembangunan sosial ekonomi. secara umum, desentralisasi terdiri dari desentralisasi politik (political decentralization), desentralisasi administratif (administrative decentralization), desentralisasi ekonomi (economic of market decentralization) dan desentralisasi fiskal (fiscal decentralization). (kälin, 2001:6) desentralisasi politik bertujuan meningkatkan keikutsertaan atau partisipasi aktif dari masyarakat, khususnya masyarakat lokal dalam proses pengambilan keputusan secara politis. hal itu menyiratkan bahwa otoritas lokal yang dipilih harus lebih bertanggung jawab terhadap masyarakat lokal yang telah memilihnya dan mereka harus lebih baik merepresentasikan kepentingan lokal dalam pengambilan keputusan politis. desentralisasi administratif yaitu pelimpahan wewenang yang dimaksudkan untuk mendistribusikan kewenangan, tanggung jawab dan sumber-sumber keuangan untuk menyediakan pelayanan publik. pelimpahan tanggung jawab tersebut menyangkut perencanaan, pendanaan dan pelimpahan manajemen fungsifungsi pemerintahan dari pemerintah pusat kepada aparatnya di daerah, tingkat pemerintahan yang lebih rendah, badan otoritas tertentu atau perusahaan tertentu. desentralisasi administratif pada dasarnya dapat dikelompokkan menjadi 3 (tiga) bentuk, antara lain yaitu: 1) dekonsentrasi (deconcentration). adalah pelimpahan wewenang dari pemerintah pusat kepada pejabat yang berada dalam garis hierarki dengan pemerintah pusat di daerah. 2) devolusi (devolution). adalah pelimpahan wewenang kepada tingkat pemerintahan yang lebih rendah dalam bidang keuangan atau tugas pemerintahan, dimana pihak pemerintah daerah mendapat diskresi atau kewenangan yang tidak dikontrol oleh pemerintah pusat. dalam hal tertentu, di mana pemerintah pusat akan memberikan supervisi secara tidak langsung atas pelaksanaan tugas tersebut. dalam melaksanakan tugasnya, pemerintah daerah memiliki wilayah administrasi yang jelas dan legal serta diberikan kewenangan sepenuhnya untuk melaksanakan fungsi publik, termasuk dalam menggali sumber-sumber penerimaan serta mengatur penggunaannya. dekonsentrasi dan devolusi dari konsepsi pemikiran hierarki organisasi dikenal sebagai distributed institutional monopoly of administrative decentralization. 3) pendelegasian (delegation or instutional pluralism). adalah pelimpahan wewenang untuk tugas tertentu kepada organisasi yang berada diluar struktur birokrasi regular dan dikontrol secara tidak langsung oleh pemerintah pusat. pendelegasian wewenang ini pada dasarnya diatur dengan ketentuan perundang-undangan. pihak yang menerima wewenang tersebut mempunyai kewenangan dalam penyelenggaraan pendelegasian tersebut meskipun wewenang terakhir tetap pada pihak pemberi wewenang (sovereign authority). desentralisasi ekonomi merujuk pada transfer fungsi pemerintah kepada sektor swasta. artinya, penugasan yang sebelumnya ditangani oleh pemerintah diserahkan kepada perusahaan swasta, kepentingan kelompok, organisasi yang sukarela dan organisasi bukan pemerintah lainnya. ada dua hal utama penting dalam desentralisasi ekonomi yaitu: 1) privatisasi atau transfer kewajiban secara jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 2, oktober 2013: 101-119 104 parsial ataupun sepenuhnya untuk produksi barang dan jasa yang spesifik dari pemerintah ke sektor swasta. 2) deregulasi atau mengurangi hambatanhambatan bersifat legal yang dapat menghambat sektor swasta untuk memproduksi barang dan jasa, dengan kata lain berusaha menciptakan iklim persaingan antara aktor swasta dalam area yang sebelumnya didominasi oleh pelayanan pemerintah atau monopoli dari perusahaan pemerintah. desentralisasi fiskal merupakan komponen utama dari desentralisasi, dimana apabila pemerintah daerah melaksanakan fungsinya dan diberikan kebebasan dalam pengambilan keputusan pengeluaran di sektor publik maka harus mendapat dukungan dari pemerintah pusat berupa subsidi/bantuan maupun pinjaman dari pemerintah pusat serta sumbersumber keuangan yang memadai, baik yang berasal dari pendapatan asli daerah (pad), bagi hasil pajak dan bukan pajak. pemerintah pada hakikatnya mengemban tiga fungsi utama, antara lain adalah fungsi distribusi, alokasi dan stabilisasi (musgrave and musgrave, 1985:6). fungsi alokasi adalah peranan pemerintah dalam mengalokasikan sumbersumber daya ekonomi agar tercipta secara efisien, yaitu adanya peran pemerintah dalam penyediaan barang untuk barang maupun jasa yang tidak dapat disediakan melalui transaksi antara penjual dan pembeli atau sistem pasar karena adanya kegagalan pasar (market failure). oleh karena itu, pemerintah harus menyediakan barang-barang tersebut (dalam hal ini barang publik). fungsi distribusi adalah peranan pemerintah dalam mempengaruhi distribusi pendapatan dan kekayaan untuk menjamin adanya keadilan atau “fair” dalam pengaturan distribusi pendapatan. fungsi stabilisasi merujuk pada tindakan pemerintah dalam mempengaruhi keseluruhan tingkat pengangguran, pertumbuhan ekonomi dan harga. dalam hal ini, pemerintah menggunakan kebijakan anggaran (budget policy) untuk mengurangi pengangguran, derajat kestabilan harga yang beralasan (reasonable) dan tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi berkelanjutan. fungsi distribusi dan fungsi stabilitas pada umumnya lebih efektif dan tepat dilaksanakan oleh pemerintah pusat, sedangkan fungsi alokasi oleh pemerintah daerah yang lebih mengetahui kebutuhan, kondisi dan situasi masyarakat setempat. pembagian ketiga fungsi tersebut dimaksudkan untuk landasan dalam penentuan dasar-dasar perimbangan keuangan pusat dan daerah. perimbangan keuangan antara pemerintah pusat dan daerah antara lain mencakup pembagian keuangan antara pemerintah pusat dan daerah secara proporsional, transparan, demokratis dan adil dengan memperhatikan kondisi, potensi dan kebutuhan daerah. pelaksanaan desentralisasi fiskal akan berjalan dengan baik jika didukung faktorfaktor sebagai berikut (sidik, 2002:2). pertama, adanya peran pemerintah pusat yang intensif dalam melakukan pengawasan dan enforcement. kedua, terdapat keseimbangan antara akuntabilitas dan kewenangan, khususnya dalam melakukan pungutan pajak dan retribusi daerah. ketiga, stabilitas politik yang kondusif. keempat, proses pengambilan keputusan di daerah harus demokratis, dimana pengambilan keputusan tentang manfaat dan biaya harus transparan serta pihak-pihak yang terkait memiliki kesempatan mempengaruhi keputusan-keputusan tersebut. kelima, desain kebijakan dari keputusan yang diambil sepenuhnya merupakan tanggung jawab masyarakat setempat dengan dukungan institusi dan kapasitas manajerial yang diinginkan sesuai dengan permintaan daerah. keenam, kualitas sumberdaya manusia yang kapabel dalam menggantikan peran yang sebelumya merupakan pemerintah pusat. adanya ketertarikan yang tinggi dalam menjalankan proses desentralisasi fiskal disebabkan beberapa faktor antara lain, pertama, diyakini bahwa desentralisasi fiskal sebagai alat yang efektif untuk meningkatkan efisiensi pengeluaran publik. kedua, adanya desakan untuk melakukan desentralisasi dapat dilihat sebagai reaksi kegagalan birokrasi pemerintah sentralistik dengan regim politik berbeda yang terjadi di negara berkembang dan negaranegara transisi, desentralisasi fiskal sebagai mekanisme untuk membuat suatu kebijakan lebih responsif terhadap apa yang dibutuhkan daerah dan melibatkan penduduk di daerah dalam melaksanakan proses pemerintahan yang demokratis. di samping itu, desentralisasi juga dapat dilihat sebagai jalan untuk pergeseran wewenang dengan menggeser otoritas fiskal desentralisasi fiskal dan pertumbuhan... (bayu kharisma) 105 kepada pemerintah daerah (oates, 1993:273). namun, di satu sisi desentralisasi fiskal dapat berpengaruh buruk terhadap kondisi suatu negara, khususnya di negara berkembang. pertama, desentralisasi fiskal akan mendorong ke arah ketidakstabilan makroekonomi, dimana hal ini disebabkan karena desentralisasi fiskal secara tidak langsung dapat mengurangi dasar pajak dan pembelanjaan yang digunakan pemerintah pusat dalam melakukan kebijakan stabilisasi melalui kebijakan anggaran. kedua, implementasi kebijakan desentralisasi yang didesain buruk dapat menciptakan insentif pemerintah daerah untuk membelanjakan dan meminjam dana secara berlebihan yang dapat mengarah pada ketidakstabilan makroekonomi. ketiga, suatu kebijakan desentralisasi tidak berjalan dengan baik jika diterapkan pada birokrasi yang korupsi, tidak stabilnya kondisi politik, administrasi, institusi dan kemampuan manajerial daerah yang tidak memadai (capable). keempat, preferensi para pemilih (voters) di daerah tidak mencerminkan preferensi daerahnya, di mana hal ini seringkali dipengaruhi oleh faktor politik. ada tiga faktor yang harus diperhatikan dari desentralisasi fiskal dalam kaitannya dengan derajat kemandirian pengambilan keputusan yang dilakukan di daerah (bird and vaillancourt, 2000:7). pertama, desentralisasi fiskal berarti adanya pelepasan tanggung jawab yang berada dalam lingkungan pemerintah pusat ke instansi vertikal di daerah. kedua, delegasi berhubungan dengan suatu situasi, yaitu daerah bertindak sebagai perwakilan pemerintah untuk melaksanakan fungsi-fungsi tertentu atas nama pemerintah pusat. ketiga, devolusi (pelimpahan) berhubungan dengan situasi yang bukan saja implementasi tetapi juga kewenangan untuk memutuskan apa yang perlu dikerjakan, khususnya yang bertempat di daerah. desentralisasi fiskal dapat dinilai secara jelas, namun hal itu sebagian tergantung pada apakah yang sudah dilakukan lebih bersifat dekonsentrasi, delegasi atau devolusi dan kebijakan politik yang bersifat dari atas ke bawah (top down) atau dari bawah ke atas (bottom up). pendekatan desentralisasi fiskal dari bawah ke atas umumnya selain menekankan nilai ekonomi, juga nilai politik. oleh karena itu, pendekatan tersebut lebih mengandung manfaat sisi ekonomi maupun politik. desentralisasi tidak hanya menghasilkan pelayanan yang efisien dan adil melalui pengetahuan lokal, namun di sisi lain akan mendorong partisipasi demokrasi yang lebih besar. dengan demikian, hasil yang diharapkan adalah terciptanya dukungan yang lebih luas kepada pemerintah daerah serta dapat memperbaiki stabilitas politik. apabila manfaat ini ditambah dengan sisi lain, misalnya seperti peningkatan mobilisasi sumber-sumber dan pengurangan tekanan atas keuangan pusat, peningkatan akuntabilitas dan peningkatan respon serta tanggung jawab pemerintah maka desentralisasi fiskal merupakan suatu yang bermanfaat. desentralisasi fiskal secara tidak langsung mempunyai hubungan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi karena dapat meningkatkan efisiensi dalam alokasi sumber daya (bird and vaillancourt, 2000:8). hal ini disebabkan (1) pemerintah daerah memiliki keuntungan yang lebih baik dibandingkan pemerintah pusat dalam memberikan pelayanan dan penyediaan barangbarang publik yang sesuai dengan preferensi dan kebutuhan-kebutuhan daerah itu sendiri. (2) menstimulus pemerintah daerah untuk lebih kreatif, inovatif dan akuntabilitas terhadap daerahnya dalam upaya merespon kebutuhan masyarakat dan upaya meningkatkan kemakmuran di daerah melalui optimalisasi sumber daya yang ada secara efisien dan mengurangi pemborosan. oleh karena itu, pemerintah daerah diharapkan mampu mengembangkan seluruh potensi yang ada, baik sumber daya alam maupun sumberdaya manusia untuk meningkatkan kemakmuran bagi masyarakat daerah itu sendiri yang secara tidak langsung berdampak pada meningkatnya laju pertumbuhan ekonomi. (3) adanya kebijakan desentralisasi akan ditandai dengan penyediaan infrastruktur di daerah yang secara tidak langsung sangat sensitif terhadap kondisi regional atau daerah, dimana lebih efektf dalam mendorong pembangunan ekonomi daripada kebijakan yang ditetapkan pemerintah pusat yang seringkali mengabaikan adanya perbedaan geografis antardaerah. esensi mengenai hubungan antara pertumbuhan ekonomi dan desentralisasi fiskal setidaknya mempunyai tiga pertimbangan. pertama, pertumbuhan dilihat sebagai sesuatu yang jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 2, oktober 2013: 101-119 106 objektif dari desentralisasi fiskal dan efisiensi dalam alokasi sumberdaya dalam sektor publik. kedua, secara eksplisit bahwa pemerintah berusaha untuk mengadopsi berbagai kebijakankebijakan untuk mendorong ke arah peningkatan dalam pendapatan per kapita. ketiga, pertumbuhan per kapita relatif lebih mudah untuk diukur dan dinterpretasikan dibanding indikator-indikator ekonomi lainnya. studi ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh desentralisasi fiskal dari sisi penerimaan dan pengeluaran terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah provinsi di tingkat nasional dengan migas dan tanpa migas serta di jawa dan luar jawa selama periode 1995-2004. metode penelitian spesifikasi model studi ini membahas pengaruh desentralisasi fiskal dari sisi penerimaan dan pengeluaran terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. model yang digunakan dalam studi ini merujuk pada model-model yang telah ada dengan berbagai tambahan dari sumber-sumber lainnya serta beberapa modifikasi (jin and heng-fu zou, 2005: 1047–1064). dasar teori yang digunakan untuk membahas pengaruh anggaran pemerintah daerah terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah adalah mengadopsi production-function based, yaitu fungsi produksi cobb-douglas. apabila diasumsikan suatu daerah dalam memproduksi output (y) dengan menggunakan stok modal (k) dan tenaga kerja (l) maka dapat dituliskan berikut: ititititit ulkay   1 1) di mana y adalah produk domestik regional bruto (pdrb); k adalah stok modal; l adalah jumlah tenaga kerja; a adalah tingkat kemajuan teknologi,  dan 1- adalah elastisitas output terhadap modal dan tenaga kerja dengan nilai 0 <  < 1 dan 0 < 1  < 1, i dan t adalah indeks provinsi dan indeks waktu dan u adalah galat. selain itu, diasumsikan fungsi produksi memiliki pengembalian skala konstan sehingga penjumlahan  dan 1 adalah satu. asumsi yang digunakan pada model tersebut adalah total faktor produksi mempunyai bentuk log ait = ai + bt yang merupakan fixed effect dari masingmasing provinsi dengan indeks i dan pertumbuhan produktivitas indonesia secara keseluruhan dengan indeks t. jika fungsi produksi cobb-douglas tersebut dibagi dengan tenaga kerja maka dapat diuraikan berikut ini:          1 itit it it ity l a l k l l l u 2) dari persamaan (2) apabila dirubah ke dalam log linier maka tingkat output per kapita dapat diuraikan sebagai berikut:       itit it itlog y l log a l log k l logu   3) itititit ukayg    4) dalam persamaan (4), laju pertumbuhan output per kapita tergantung pada dua faktor, antara lain laju pertumbuhan modal per kapita dan tingkat kemajuan teknologi (rate of technological progress). dalam hal ini, ita  tidak hanya menggambarkan tingkat kemajuan teknologi, namun juga mencerminkan perbedaan dalam kelimpahan sumberdaya (resource endownments) dan institusi antardaerah dari waktu ke waktu, seperti halnya di dalam karateristik-karateristik spesifik lain di suatu wilayah yang tidak bisa diamati. pada studi ini, diasumsikan bahwa ita  bergantung pada dua variabel. variabel pertama adalah desentralisasi fiskal dari sisi penerimaan dan pengeluaran, sedangkan variabel kedua adalah variabel kontrol yang merupakan perbedaan daerah dalam kelimpahan sumber daya dan institusi antardaerah, antara lain adalah pertumbuhan penduduk, pajak daerah dan keterbukaan daerah (degree of openness). sementara itu, proxy untuk modal per kapita menggunakan pembentukan modal tetap domestik bruto riil per kapita. dalam penulisan studi ini, model diestimasi menggunakan data panel secara terpisah pada periode 1995-2000 dan desentralisasi fiskal dan pertumbuhan... (bayu kharisma) 107 2001-2004 yang mempunyai bentuk sebagai berikut: 1) model hubungan desentralisasi fiskal dari sisi penerimaan dan pengeluaran terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi: 0 1 2 3it it it itlny lndfx lndfy lninv        4 5it it it lnopen gpop u   5) 2) model hubungan pendapatan asli daerah (pad) dan dana perimbangan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi: 0 1 2 3it it it itlny lnpad lndper lninv        4 5it it itlnopen gpop u   6) 3) model hubungan pengeluaran rutin dan 0 1 2 3it it it itlny lnrutin lnpemb lninv        4 5it itlnopen gpop   itit utax 6 7) keterangan: yit adalah pdrb riil per kapita dari provinsi i pada tahun t; dfxit adalah desentralisasi fiskal dari sisi penerimaan (rasio total pad terhadap total pad dan total penerimaan dalam negeri) riil per kapita dari provinsi i pada tahun t; dfyit adalah desentralisasi fiskal dari sisi pengeluaran (rasio total pengeluaran daerah terhadap total pengeluaran daerah dan total pengeluaran pusat)1 riil per kapita dari provinsi i pada tahun t; invit adalah investasi riil per kapita dari provinsi i pada tahun t; openit adalah keterbukaan daerah (rasio ekspor dan impor daerah terhadap pdrb) riil dari provinsi i pada tahun t; gpopit adalah pertumbuhan penduduk dari provinsi i pada tahun t; padit adalah pendapatan asli daerah (rasio pad terhadap total penerimaan daerah) dari provinsi i pada tahun t ; daperit adalah dana perimbangan (rasio dana perimbangan terhadap total penerimaan daerah) dari provinsi i pada tahun t; rutinit adalah belanja rutin (rasio belanja rutin terhadap total pengeluaran daerah) dari provinsi i pada tahun t; pembit adalah belanja pembangunan 1 tanpa memperhitungkan angsuran pinjaman atau hutang dan bunga (rasio belanja pembangunan terhadap total pengeluaran daerah) dari provinsi i pada tahun t. uit adalah error term. hasil dan pembahasan pembahasan dalam studi ini dibagi menjadi 3 (tiga) bagian, bagian pertama adalah melihat pengaruh desentralisasi fiskal dari sisi penerimaan dan pengeluaran terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah provinsi di indonesia (di tingkat nasional dengan migas dan tanpa migas, di jawa dan di luar jawa), bagian kedua melihat pengaruh pendapatan asli daerah (pad) dan dana perimbangan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. ketiga adalah melihat pengaruh belanja rutin dan pembangunan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. semua model menggunakan data panel yang terdiri dari 26 provinsi (provinsi yang mengalami pemekaran diagregasikan dengan provinsi induknya) yang merupakan data cross section dan 10 tahun (1995-2004) data time series sehingga total obser-vasi data panel adalah 260. dalam melakukan pemilihan pendekatan panel data yang paling cocok untuk mengestimasi semua model maka dilakukan uji hausman (hausman test). berdasarkan hasil uji hausman dapat disimpulkan bahwa pendekatan yang paling cocok dengan karakteristik data adalah model efek tetap (fixed effect). hasil pengolahan data secara ringkas untuk semua model dapat dilihat pada tabel 1, 2, dan 3 dalam lampiran. analisis statistik dan ekonometrik secara umum model data panel yang digunakan untuk melihat dampak desentralisasi fiskal terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi antar provinsi di indonesia memberikan hasil yang baik secara teori ekonomi dan teori keuangan daerah. hal ini dapat dilihat dari tanda koefisisen yang arah dan besarannya bersesuaian dengan teori ekonomi dan keuangan daerah. berdasarkan hasil estimasi terhadap semua model di atas, terlihat bahwa secara umum hampir semua variabel signifikan pada tingkat kepercayaan 99%, 95% dan 90%, meskipun masih ada beberapa variabel yang tidak signifikan. hal ini ditunjukkan dengan nilai t-hitung jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 2, oktober 2013: 101-119 108 lebih besar dari nilai t-tabel. artinya, masingmasing variabel yang diuji berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. pengujian tersebut dilakukan dengan membandingkan nilai t-hitung dengan nilai kritis yang diperoleh dari t-tabel. apabila nilai t-hitung > ttabel maka hipotesis h0 ditolak. sebaliknya, jika nilai t-hitung < t-tabel maka hipotesis h0 diterima. sementara itu, hasil estimasi juga menunjukkan bahwa nilai probability f-statistic ( = 0,0000) signifikan pada tingkat kepercayaan 99%. hal ini berarti bahwa secara bersamasama variabel bebas pada semua model tersebut berpengaruh signifikan terhadap variabel tidak bebas pada tingkat kepercayaan 99%. selanjutnya pada tahap akhir uji statistik adalah melihat nilai adjusted r2. hasil estimasi yang telah dilakukan diperoleh bahwa nilai adjusted r2 semua model adalah 0.999. hal ini menunjukkan bahwa 99,9% variasi dalam variabel tidak bebas mampu dijelaskan oleh variasi semua variabel bebas yang terdapat dalam model, sedangkan sisanya sebesar 0,001% dijelaskan oleh faktor-faktor lainnya yang tidak dimasukkan ke dalam model. pada pengujian multikolinier, berdasarkan hasil estimasi tidak terdapat multikolinearitas antara variabel di dalam model. hal ini diperlihatkan dengan uji correlation matrix yang menunjukkan tidak ada gejala multicolinearity dalam model, karena semua nilai korelasi masing-masing variabel di bawah 80%. artinya, tidak ada hubungan antara variabel bebas dalam model. dengan demikian diharapkan masing-masing riabel bebas dapat memberikan pengaruh yang murni terhadap variabel tidak bebas. pada studi ini, gejala heteroskedastis sudah diperbaiki secara langsung dengan melakukan koreksi standard error (white heteroskedasticityconsistent standard errors & covariance), sehingga diharapkan tidak ada korelasi antara error dengan variabel bebas dalam model serta perilaku error term tidak memiliki pola yang sistematis. dengan mengacu pada nilai durbinwatson, semua model secara umum tidak terdapat indikasi adanya korelasi serial (autocorrelation), di mana nilai dw dalam semua persamaan di atas mendekati nilai 2. selain itu, dalam metode fixed effect diasumsikan dapat mengatasi masalah korelasi serial (gujarati, 2003:646). dengan demikian, secara umyum model yang digunakan sudah memenuhi asumsi blue (best linier unbiased estimator) diharapkan bahwa nilai yang dihasilkan dapat menunjukkan nilai yang baik, efisien dan tidak bias serta dapat menggambarkan pengaruh yang murni dari variabel bebas terhadap variabel tidak bebas sehingga layak dijadikan sebagai dasar analisis. analisis ekonomi 1) desentralisasi fiskal sisi penerimaan dan pengeluaran. desentralisasi fiskal dari sisi penerimaan dan pengeluaran sebelum pelaksanaan desentralisasi tahun 1995-2000, berpengaruh negatif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah, namun pengaruh dari sisi pengeluaran lebih berpengaruh besar dibandingkan sisi penerimaan dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah, baik di tingkat nasional dengan migas dan tanpa migas, di jawa maupun di luar jawa. berdasarkan hasil estimasi, menunjukkan bahwa pengaruh desentralisasi fiskal dari sisi penerimaan dan pengeluaran terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah berpengaruh negatif. artinya, pemerintah daerah belum mampu mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi dengan mengandalkan dan memobilisasi anggaran penerimaan dan pengeluaran daerah yang ada. hal ini dikarenakan besarnya peran atau dominasi pemerintah pusat dalam menjalankan sistem pemerintahan, termasuk dalam mengatur dan mengendalikan anggaran pemerintah daerah, baik dari sisi penerimaan maupun pengeluaran. pola pendekatan sentralistik dan seragam (uniform) yang dikembangkan pemerintah pusat sejak orde baru telah menurunkan atau bahkan meniadakan inisiatif dan kreativitas daerah, dimana pemerintah daerah kurang diberikan keleluasaan (local discreation) untuk menentukan kebijakan daerahnya sendiri, termasuk rendahnya wewenang dan tugas dalam membiayai pengeluaran daerahnya, di mana belanja daerah hampir sepenuhnya ditentukan oleh pemerintah pusat. selain itu, masih terbatasnya kewenangan dalam memanfaatkan dan memungut pendapatan daerahnya sendiri, khususnya dari pajak dan retribusi. hal ini berimplikasi desentralisasi fiskal dan pertumbuhan... (bayu kharisma) 109 pada masih rendahnya peran anggaran pemerintah daerah dari sisi penerimaan dan pengeluaran dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah. dengan demikian, peran anggaran pemerintah pusat dari sisi penerimaan dan pengeluaran lebih efisien dan efektif dibandingkan daerah dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah. memasuki era desentralisasi selama kurun waktu 2001-2004, pengaruh desentralisasi fiskal dari sisi penerimaan dan pengeluaran terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi mengalami peningkatan yang cukup signifikan dibandingkan sebelum era desentralisasi. adanya peningkatan desentralisasi fiskal, baik dari sisi penerimaan maupun pengeluaran disebabkan karena adanya kenaikan anggaran pemerintah daerah sejak pemberlakukan era desentralisasi. hal ini sesuai dengan uu no. 22 dan 25 tahun 1999 serta uu no. 32 dan 33 tahun 2004 yang menyatakan bahwa perimbangan keuangan pusat dan daerah dalam rangka pelaksanaan desentralisasi fiskal, pemerintah daerah diberikan kewenangan untuk memanfaatkan sumber keuangan sendiri dan didukung dengan perimbangan keuangan antara pusat dan daerah. oleh karena itu, sejak pelaksanaan era desentralisasi peran anggaran pemerintah daerah mengalami peningkatan yang cukup signifikan dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah, terutama dari sisi pengeluaran. pengaruh desentralisasi fiskal dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi jauh lebih besar melalui sisi pengeluaran dibandingkan sisi penerimaan daerah. hal ini disebabkan karena sejak memasuki pelaksanaan era desentralisasi, segala sesuatu yang berkaitan dengan urusan dan tanggung jawab dalam penyediaan pelayanan publik dari pusat kewenangannya sudah dilimpahkan ke daerah. dengan demikian, kondisi ini dapat mengakibatkan peningkatan alokasi dana belanja daerah yang jauh lebih besar, baik pengeluaran rutin maupun pembangunan. dengan demikian, adanya peningkatan alokasi dana belanja daerah yang lebih besar berdampak positif terhadap peran pemerintah daerah mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah melalui sisi pengeluaran. sementara itu, adanya pengaruh negatif desentralisasi fiskal dari sisi penerimaan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi selama pelaksanaan desentralisasi 2001-2004, baik di tingkat nasional dengan migas dan tanpa migas, di jawa maupun di luar jawa terkait dengan masalah penggalian sumber-sumber penerimaan daerah, antara lain dari pajak dan retribusi daerah yang merupakan salah satu sumber penerimaan pendapatan asli daerah masih belum mampu memberikan kontribusi yang signifikan terhadap penerimaan daerah secara keseluruhan sehingga pada akhirnya tidak mampu mendorong pertumbuhan ekononomi daerah. tidak signifikannya peran pendapatan daerah dalam anggaran pemerintah daerah tidak lepas dari sistem pajak di indonesia yang masih memberikan kewenangan penuh terhadap pemerintah pusat untuk mengumpukan pajak-pajak yang potensial, seperti: pajak penghasilan, pajak pertambahan nilai dan bea masuk. kenyataan yang terjadi selama ini distribusi kewenangan perpajakan antara daerah dan pusat sangat timpang, yaitu jumlah penerimaan pajak yang dipungut oleh daerah hanya 3,39% dari total penerimaan pajak (pajak pusat dan pajak daerah) (sidik, 2002:8) ketimpangan dalam penguasaaan sumber-sumber penerimaan pajak tersebut memberikan petunjuk bahwa perimbangan keuangan antara pemerintah pusat dan daerah di indonesia, khususnya dari sisi penerimaan sangat dikuasai atau didominasi oleh pemerintah pusat. hal ini berdampak pada masih rendahnya peran anggaran pemerintah daerah dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi melalui sisi penerimaan. berdasarkan hasil estimasi, diperoleh bahwa desentralisasi fiskal dari sisi penerimaan dan pengeluaran lebih berpengaruh besar di tingkat nasional tanpa migas (pdrb perkapita tanpa migas) dibandingkan dengan migas (pdrb perkapita total termasuk migas). hal tersebut tercermin dari koefisien elastisitas desentralisasi fiskal dari sisi penerimaan dan pengeluaran pada estimasi dengan pdrb per kapita tanpa migas yang lebih berperan dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi dibandingkan dengan estimasi menggunakan pdrb perkapita dengan migas. hal ini mengindikasikan bahwa desentralisasi fiskal dari sisi penerimaan dan pengeluaran yang berkaitan dengan minyak dan gas (migas) tidak banyak memberikan kontribusi bagi pertumbuhan ekonomi jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 2, oktober 2013: 101-119 110 daerah. dalam hal ini adanya ketidakadilan dalam hal kesejahteraan masyarakat yang merupakan dampak hasil dari kebijakan pemerataan pembangunan antardaerah yang dijalankan pemerintah orde baru, terutama melalui instrumen fiskal (fiscal policy) seperti transfer dari pusat, transfer antardaerah dan kebijakan lain terutama melalui berbagai skema inpres, di mana kebijakan ini pada dasarnya dilakukan melalui sentralisasi keuangan (unsfir, 2001). pemerintah pusat langsung menarik ke pusat sebagian besar penerimaan pajak dan penerimaan sumber daya alam khususnya surplus dari minyak, gas dan hasil tambang yang hanya terkonsentrasi di beberapa provinsi kaya tersebut, sehingga pada akhirnya tidak ada hubungan yang kuat antara besarnya produksi migas di suatu provinsi dengan tingkat kesejahteraan masyarakatnya. hal ini terlihat bahwa kesejahteraan masyarakat di daerah yang kaya sama atau bahkan lebih rendah dari masyarakat indonesia pada umumnya. untuk melihat peran anggaran pemerintah daerah dari sisi penerimaan dan pengeluaran sebelum dan era desentralisasi selama 19952004 dapat dilihat pada gambar 1. gambar 1. desentralisasi fiskal dari sisi penerimaan dan pengeluaran, sebelum dan pada era desentralisasi 1995-2004 pada gambar 1 menunjukkan bahwa peran anggaran pemerintah daerah dari sisi pengeluaran jauh lebih besar dibandingkan sisi penerimaan. hal ini mengindikasikan bahwa sisi pengeluaran di indonesia pada dasarnya sudah mengarah ke arah desentralistik, khususnya sejak pelaksanaan desentralisasi tahun 2001, namun sisi penerimaan di indonesia relatif masih sentralistik, baik sebelum maupun sesudah era desentralisasi. 2) pendapatan asli daerah dan dana perimbangan sebelum pelaksanaan era desentralisasi selama kurun waktu 1995-2000, pengaruh anggaran pemerintah daerah dari sisi dana perimbangan lebih berperan besar dibandingkan pendapatan asli daerah (pad) terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah, baik di tingkat nasional dengan migas dan tanpa migas, di jawa maupun di luar jawa. adanya pengaruh dana perimbangan yang jauh lebih besar dibandingkan pendapatan asli daerah (pad) dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi disebabkan karena pemerintah daerah kurang diberikan kewenangan untuk memanfaatkan dan memungut pendapatan daerahnya sendiri serta sangat bergantung pada dana perimbangan dari pusat. oleh karena itu, kemampuan daerah dalam membiayai pengeluaran daerahnya masih rendah sehingga pengaruh anggaran pemerintah daerah dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah melalui dana perimbangan jauh lebih besar dibandingkan pendapatan asli daerah (pad). sementara itu, sejak era desentralisasi 2001-2004, pengaruh anggaran pemerintah daerah terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi melalui pendapatan asli daerah (pad) mengalami peningkatan dibandingkan sebelum era desentralisasi. sementara itu, pengaruh anggaran pemerintah daerah terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi melalui dana perimbangan mengalami penurunan. adanya penurunan peran dana perimbangan dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah sejak pelaksanaan desentralisasi disebabkan paling tidak oleh dua hal. pertama, masih besarnya porsi belanja rutin. sejak desentralisasi, belanja untuk gaji pegawai meningkat cukup besar, termasuk gaji anggota dprd. sidik, et.al. (2002) menunjukkan bahwa perilaku rent seeking di daerah meningkatkan biaya dalam mengorganisasikan rent based transfer pada tingkat pemerintahan kabupatan/ kota untuk memperkuat struktur kekuatan elit politik di daerah, sehingga sebagian besar dana perimbangan yang mengalir ke daerah hanya dinikmati oleh elit di daerah tersebut. kedua, ada beberapa syarat kecukupan (sufficient conditions) yang belum dipenuhi oleh daerah, antara lain yang terkait dengan bagaimana proses 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 sisi penerimaan (%) sisi pengeluaran (%)a b b a desentralisasi fiskal dan pertumbuhan... (bayu kharisma) 111 perencanaan pembangunan yang dilakukan oleh daerah selama era desentralisasi ini. apabila dana perimbangan yang mengalir ke daerah tidak dibarengi oleh proses perencanaan yang baik dengan prinsip partisipatif dari masyarakat dan tidak diimbangi oleh kemampuan pemerintah daerah dalam mengelola keuangan secara transparan dan akuntabel maka dana yang besar tersebut tidak akan mempunyai dampak yang cukup berarti bagi perekonomian daerah tersebut karena hanya dinikmati oleh beberapa orang saja. sejak pelaksanaan desentralisasi selama kurun waktu 2001-2004, peran anggaran pemerintah daerah dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi melalui pendapatan asli daerah (pad) jauh lebih kecil dibandingkan dana perimbangan. hal ini disebabkan antara lain ; pertama, relatif masih rendahnya basis pajak dan retribusi daerah dalam upaya meningkatkan penerimaan daerah. rendahnya basis pajak dan retribusi ini bagi daerah yang secara tidak langsung memperkecil peranan pendapatan asli daerah dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah. kedua, masih adanya ketergantungan yang tinggi terhadap dana perimbangan dari pemerintah pusat yang berimplikasi ketidakmauan daerah dalam menggali potensi pendapatan asli daerahnya sehingga berdampak pada rendahnya penerimaan daerah dari pendapatan asli daerah. ketiga, kemampuan administrasi pemungutan di daerah cenderung masih rendah. hal ini mengakibatkan bahwa pemungutan pajak cenderung dibiayai oleh biaya pungutan yang besar.2 keempat, selama kurun waktu pelaksanaan desentralisasi, beberapa provinsi, kabupaten dan kota di indonesia mengalami pemekaran, misalnya provinsi bangka belitung, maluku utara, gorontalo dan banten. hal ini secara tidak langsung berdampak terhadap penurunan pendapatan asli daerah (pad), khususnya bagi daerah induknya yang mengalami pemekaran tersebut (rosalina, 2006:41). kelima, banyaknya pemungutan dan penciptaan pajak dan retribusi baru yang berlebihan selama pelaksanaan era desentralisasi serta munculnya berbagai pungutan daerah yang masuk dalam kategori perda bermasalah sehinnga menimbul 2 laporan studi dampak krisis ekonomi terhadap keuangan daerah di indonesia. lpem univesitas indonesia bekerjasama dengan clean urban project, rti, jakarta 1999. kan dampak negatif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi (lewis and chakery, 2004a:2). keenam, proyeksi penerimaan daerah pada umumnya hanya didasarkan pada pengalaman penerimaan tahun sebelumnya sehingga usaha untuk menggali potensi pendapatan asli daerah belum banyak dilakukan oleh daerah (lewis and chakery, 2004b:2). ketujuh, selama awal pelaksanaan desentralisasi, pendapatan asli daerah dalam membiayai kebutuhan pengeluaran daerah sangat kecil dan bervariasi antardaerah yaitu kurang dari 10% hingga 50%, di mana sebagian besar daerah provinsi hanya dapat membiayai kebutuhan pengeluarannya kurang dari 10%. demikian pula, distribusi pajak antar daerah juga sangat timpang karena basis pajak antardaerah sangat bervariasi (ratio pad tertinggi dengan terendah mencapai 600). terakhir, peranan pajak dan retribusi dalam pembiayaan daerah sangat bervariasi akibat adanya perbedaan yang sangat besar dalam jumlah penduduk, keadaan geografis (berdampak pada biaya yang relatif mahal), dan kemampuan masyarakat, sehingga mengakibatkan biaya penyediaan pelayanan kepada masyarakat sangat bervariasi. selain itu, pengaruh anggaran pemerintah daerah terhadap pertumbuhan daerah melalui dana perimbangan jauh lebih besar dibandingkan melalui pendapatan asli daerah (pad). hal ini disebabkan karena pelaksanaan desentsralisasi dirasakan masih relatif baru sehingga masih banyak daerah yang belum siap dalam melaksanakannya. selain itu, masih banyak beberapa daerah yang memiliki potensi dan kapasitas serta sumber penerimaan terbatas namun dihadapkan pada pembiayaan belanja daerah yang cukup besar. oleh karena itu, upaya untuk menghindari kemungkinan penurunan kemampuan daerah dalam membiayai beban pengeluaran, mengurangi ketimpangan vertikal maupun horizontal serta untuk menambah pendapatan daerah maka peranan dana perimbangan (terutama dari dau) dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi jauh lebih besar dibandingkan melalui pad. pada komposisi penerimaan daerah, pendapatan asli daerah (pad) lebih kuat pengaruhnya dibandingkan dana perimbangan di tingkat nasional tanpa migas dibandingkan nasional dengan migas. hal ini mengindikasijurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 2, oktober 2013: 101-119 112 kan bahwa tidak ada hubungan yang kuat antara tingginya produksi migas di suatu provinsi dengan besarnya penerimaan di daerah tersebut. selain itu, dari estimasi terhadap pdrb perkapita nonmigas didapatkan bahwa provinsi bukan penghasil migas memiliki ketergantungan yang relatif rendah terhadap dana perimbangan, sedangkan daerah penghasil minyak dan gas justru sangat bergantung terhadap dana perimbangan dari pemerintah pusat. sementara itu, pengaruh pendapatan asli daerah (pad) di jawa dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi jauh lebih besar dibandingkan di luar jawa. hal ini disebabkan karena pusat perekonomian masih terpusat di jawa sehingga potensi dan kapasitas serta sumber penerimaan, khususnya dari pajak daerah dan retribusi relatif jauh lebih besar dibandingkan di luar jawa. sementara itu, peran anggaran pemerintah daerah di luar jawa dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi melalui dana perimbangan jauh lebih besar dibandingkan di jawa. hal ini dikarenakan masih adanya daerah-daerah di luar jawa yang memiliki potensi dan kapasitas serta sumber penerimaan yang relatif masih rendah dibandingkan di jawa. oleh karena itu, upaya untuk menghindari kemungkinan penurunan kemampuan daerah dalam membiayai beban pengeluaran maka sangat bergantung pada dana perimbangan. dengan demikian, pengaruh pad di luar jawa dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi melalui dana perimbangan jauh lebih besar dibandingkan di jawa. 3) belanja rutin dan pembangunan sebelum pelaksanaan desentralisasi 19952000, pengaruh belanja pembangunan lebih berperan besar dibandingkan rutin dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah, baik di tingkat nasional dengan migas dan tanpa migas, di jawa maupun di luar jawa. memasuki era desentralisasi selama kurun waktu 20012004, belanja rutin maupun pembangunan mengalami peningkatan cukup signifikan dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah. berdasarkan hasil estimasi, menunjukkan bahwa belanja pembangunan jauh lebih besar dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi dibandingkan belanja rutin, baik sebelum desentralisasi maupun sesudah pelaksanaan desentralisasi. adanya pengaruh negatif belanja rutin terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah dikarenakan alokasi belanja tersebut cenderung relatif tidak produktif dibandingkan belanja pembangunan pembangunan dalam mendorong kegiatan perekonomian daerah. misalnya, alokasi dana untuk belanja pegawai, biaya perjalanan dinas dan pemeliharaan barang. sementara itu, adanya pengaruh positif belanja pembangunan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah antara lain karena alokasi anggaran pembangunan lebih diprioritaskan pada sektorsektor yang produktif, misalnya di bidang ekonomi yaitu transportasi, perdagangan, pengembangan usaha daerah, keuangan dan koperasi, pertanian dan kehutanan serta pertambangan dan energi, sedangkan di luar bidang ekonomi, alokasi belanja pembangunan lebih dititikberatkan pada sektor-sektor penyediaan fasilitasfasilitas pelayanan dasar di bidang kesejahteraan sosial, kesehatan, pendidikan, perumahan dan permukiman serta jasa pelayanan umum. dengan demikian, peran anggaran pemerintah daerah terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah dari sisi belanja pembangunan jauh lebih besar dibandingkan rutin. melihat dari perbandingan komposisi belanja daerah, belanja pembangunan relatif lebih kuat pengaruhnya di tingkat nasional dengan migas dibandingkan nasional tanpa migas. selain itu, setelah memasuki era desentralisasi peran pemerintah daerah di luar jawa dalam mengalokasikan belanja pembangunannya jauh lebih besar dibandingkan di jawa, sehingga dampak yang terjadi adalah peran anggaran pemerintah daerah dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi melalui sisi belanja pembangunan jauh lebih besar dibandingkan di jawa. sementara itu, sebaliknya justru pemerintah daerah di jawa sejak pelaksanaan desentralisasi lebih banyak mengalokasikan belanjanya pada belanja rutin dibandingkan di luar jawa, terutama untuk alokasi pengeluaran pegawai yaitu pembayaran upah/gaji. hal ini dikarenakan selama pelaksanaan desentralisasi, di jawa ditandai adanya pengalihan pegawai yang disertai pula dengan alih status pegawai pusat menjadi pegawai daerah maupun pengalihan status pegawai daerah menjadi pegawai di daerah lain desentralisasi fiskal dan pertumbuhan... (bayu kharisma) 113 karena adanya pemekaran wilayah provinsi, kabupaten dan kota yang terjadi di jawa. oleh karena itu, pengaruh anggaran pemerintah daerah di jawa terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi melalui belanja rutin berpengaruh negatif cukup besar dibandingkan di luar jawa. 4) keterbukaan daerah keterbukaan dalam hal ini merupakan penjumlahan dari ekspor dan impor terhadap pendapatan produk domestik bruto. keterbukaan daerah dalam semua model berpengaruh positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi pada tingkat kepercayaan 90%, 95% dan 99%, sedangkan hanya beberapa sebagian kecil dalam persamaan tidak mengalami signifikan. secara umum menunjukkan bahwa setelah pelaksanaan desentralisasi peran keterbukaan daerah mengalami penurunan dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah. hal disebabkan antara lain; pertama, apabila pemerintah daerah lebih memberi perhatian pada upaya meningkatkan penerimaan terutama dengan melakukan ekstensifikasi pajak dan retribusi maka beban pungutan yang akan dialami oleh pelaku usaha akan semakin besar dan distorsi yang ditimbulkan terhadap perdagangan sehingga dapat berdampak buruk pada pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah. kedua, adanya penambahan jenis pajak dan retribusi akan memberi peluang pada semakin banyaknya bentuk-bentuk pungutan yang menimbulkan semakin beratnya beban pengeluaran pelaku usaha akibat meningkatnya biaya transaksi. bagi daerah, hal ini akan menimbulkan high cost economy yang merugikan bagi kegiatan ekonomi, termasuk terhadap perdagangan daerah yang pada akhirnya berdampak buruk pada pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah. di samping itu, dampak krisis ekonomi yang belum sepenuhnya pulih yang berdampak menurunnya peran keterbukaan daerah dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi. berdasarkan hasil estimasi, menunjukkan bahwa setelah pelaksanaan desentralisasi peran keterbukaan daerah dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi jauh lebih besar terjadi di jawa dibandingkan di luar jawa. hal ini disebabkan karena dalam pola perdagangan antar pulau tampak adanya konsentrasi aliran barang dan tenaga kerja dari luar pulau jawa menuju jawa. kondisi ini merupakan implikasi langsung dari adanya konsentrasi industri di jawa yang ditopang oleh ketersediaan infrastruktur pelabuhan dan keberadaan sumberdaya manusia (sdm) yang relatif lebih baik daripada di luar jawa serta tingginya aliran barang ke jawa juga dipengaruhi oleh besarnya jumlah penduduk di jawa. selain itu, terkait dengan banyaknya pungutan-pungutan menjelang pelaksanaan desentralisasi, khususnya yang terjadi di luar jawa. misalnya, masalah jembatan timbang di sulawesi selatan. setelah uu no 18/1997 diberlakukan, seluruh jembatan timbang di indonesia dihapuskan. namun beberapa waktu setelah tuntutan otonomi daerah marak di awal 1999, praktek jembatan timbang di beberapa daerah seperti sulawesi selatan mulai berjalan kembali. tujuan dari jembatan timbang ini adalah untuk menjaga jalan dari kerusakan akibat truk-truk yang kelebihan muatan. namun dalam prakteknya, ini menjadi ajang korupsi dan kolusi dari petugas, polisi, dan sopir truk atau pun pengusaha. hal ini secara tidak langsung menambah biaya terutama barang pertanian yang didistribusikan (simanjuntak, 2001:9-10). dengan demikian, adanya penambahan biaya tersebut dapat menimbulkan ekonomi biaya tinggi (high cost economy) yang pada akhirnya justru dapat berpengaruh negatif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. 5) investasi daerah investasi daerah sebelum era desentralisasi 1995-2000 berpengaruh positif pada tingkat kepercayaan 90%, 95% dan 99% terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. sejak era desentralisasi 2001-2004, pengaruh investasi daerah terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi mengalami penurunan, baik di tingkat nasional dengan migas dan tanpa migas, di jawa maupun di luar jawa. adanya penurunan pengaruh investasi terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah pada saat pelaksanaan desentralisasi, disebabkan antara lain (tambunan, 2001:11): pertama, kurang memadainya kewenangan pemberian ijin yang dilimpahkan pemerintah pusat kepada pemerintah daerah. misalnya pemerintah pusat masih mempunyai kewenangan untuk mengeluarkan ijin investasi kendati beberapa pemejurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 2, oktober 2013: 101-119 114 rintah daerah ingin sekali menarik investor, namun kurangnya kewenangan mereka dalam hal pemberian ijin dapat berdampak buruk pada investasi daerah yang akhirnya berimplikasi pada rendahnya pengaruh investasi daerah terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah. kedua, pemerintah daerah cenderung menciptakan pungutan-pungutan daerah dengan tujuan meningkatkan penerimaan daerah yang justru dapat menimbulkan ekonomi biaya tinggi sehingga berdampak terganggunya aliran investasi yang masuk ke daerah tersebut, padahal peranan investasi daerah, khususnya investasi swasta memiliki peranan strategis sebagai pemacu utama pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah. ketiga, tingginya biaya perijinan dengan tujuan meningkatkan penerimaan daerah yang justru dapat menghambat investasi sehingga berdampak pada pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah. hasil survei lpem feui pada 2004 menunjukkan adanya biaya tambahan dalam ijin pendirian usaha baru. rata-rata biaya yang dikeluarkan adalah berkisar 8,38 persen dari modal awal. secara keseluruhan biaya tambahan perijinan terhadap modal awal di luar jawa lebih tinggi dibandingkan dengan jawa (7,88 persen versus 9,58 persen). berdasarkan hasil survei tersebut tidak dapat ditangkap biaya perijinan yang harus dikeluarkan oleh investor bila ingin membuka usaha baru di daerah.3 hal ini karena banyaknya variasi ketentuan perijinan serta biayanya. selain itu, dampak krisis ekonomi nasional yang masih berpengaruh buruk terhadap kondisi investasi daerah sehingga berimplikasi pada rendahnya peran investasi daerah dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah. 6) pertumbuhan penduduk sebelum memasuki era desentralisasi 19952000, pertumbuhan penduduk pada semua model berpengaruh negatif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah. hal ini sesuai dengan teori yang menyatakan bahwa apabila perekonomian ditandai dengan tingkat pertumbuhan penduduk lebih tinggi maka akan memiliki tingkat modal per pekerja yang rendah dan karena itu akan berdampak pada penurunan tingkat pendapatan per kapita. 3 studi lpem-feui, cost of doing business, 2004. memasuki pelaksanaan era desentralisasi selama kurun waktu 2001-2004, pertumbuhan penduduk mengalami peningkatan cukup signifikan. hal ini akan semakin berdampak buruk terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. adanya kenaikan jumlah penduduk sejak era desentralisasi disebabkan antara lain adanya pemekaranpemekaran yang terjadi di provinsi, kabupaten dan kota sejak pelaksanaan desentralisasi. hal ini secara tidak langsung memicu adanya pertumbuhan penduduk yang semakin tinggi. selain itu, sejak pelaksanaan era desentralisasi ditandai dengan adanya peningkatan arus urbanisasi yang cukup tinggi, terutama di jawa yang umumnya merupakan daerah perkotaan (lewis, 2004:13). dengan demikian, dengan semakin besarnya jumlah penduduk maka akan berdampak pada penurunan tingkat pendapatan per kapita. 7) pajak daerah sebelum pelaksanaan era desentralisasi selama kurun waktu 1995-2000, pajak daerah berpengaruh negatif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, baik di tingkat nasional dengan migas dan tanpa migas, di jawa maupun di luar jawa. adanya pengaruh negatif peran pemerintah daerah dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi melalui pajak daerah berkaitan dengan masalah pengaturan kewenangan pengenaan pemungutan pajak daerah yang dilakukan sebelum era desentralisasi, di mana kurang memberikan peluang kepada daerah untuk mengadakan pungutan terhadap pajak, sehingga kemampuan pemerintah daerah dalam mengumpulkan dananya lewat pajak (tax effort) cukup rendah. selain itu, pengaturan perda tentang pajak daerah dan retribusi daerah harus mendapat pengesahan dari pusat (sidik, 2002a:4). hal ini secara tidak langsung dapat berdampak pada rendahnya peran penerimaan daerah dari pajak daerah dalam membiayai pembangunan daerahnya sehingga pada akhirnya berimplikasi negatif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. selain itu, adanya dampak krisis ekonomi nasional yang belum sepenuhnya pulih sehingga berdampak pada masih rendahnya penerimaan dari pajak dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah. sebelum pelaksanaan desentralisasi, ditandesentralisasi fiskal dan pertumbuhan... (bayu kharisma) 115 dai masih banyaknya jumlah pungutan pajak dan retribusi daerah yang berlebihan, misalnya, sebelum uu no. 18 tahun 1997 disahkan, uu yang berlaku saat itu adalah uu no 11 drt tahun 1957, untuk jenis pajak provinsi terdapat sebanyak 5 buah dan pajak kabupaten/kota sebanyak tidak kurang dari 20 jenis. karena uu ini memberi kewenangan kepada daerah untuk “menggali dan mengembangkan jenis-jenis pajak baru” maka dalam prakteknya jumlah pajak daerah yang ada jauh lebih banyak dari itu, yakni sekitar 40 jenis (sidik, 2002:4). oleh karena itu, dengan adanya pungutan-pungutan pajak yang berlebihan dapat berpengaruh negatif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah. memasuki pelaksanaan era desentralisasi 2001-2004, peran pajak daerah dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi mengalami peningkatan. adanya peningkatan peran pajak daerah dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah selama era desentralisasi merupakan konsekuensi logis adanya tuntutan untuk merealisasikan secara konsisten pelaksanaan desentralisasi. selain itu, setiap daerah dapat memobilisasi penerimaannya sendiri antara lain melalui pajak daerah dan retribusi daerah untuk membiayai penyelenggaraan pemerintahan dan pengeluaran daerah yang sudah menjadi kewajibannya. berdasarkan hasil estimasi, menunjukkan bahwa selama era desentralisasi pengaruh pajak daerah di luar jawa sangat berpengaruh negatif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi dibandingkan di jawa. hal ini disebabkan pungutan pajak dan retribusi yang berlebihan yang terjadi di luar jawa. misalnya banyaknya perda yang masuk dalam kategori perda bermasalah yang pada akhirnya menimbulkan ekonomi biaya tinggi (high cost economy). oleh karena itu, tingginya semangat pemerintah daerah dalam menggali sumber pendapatan asli daerahnya tersebut justru dapat menimbulkan distrosi terhadap perekonomian daerah. sementara itu, meskipun pendapatan asli daerah (pad) di jawa jauh lebih besar dibanding di luar jawa, tetapi tax effortnya ternyata jauh lebih rendah. hal ini mengindikasikan bahwa pemerintah daerah di jawa belum secara maksimal memanfaatkan potensi yang tersedia (simanjuntak, 2001:3). oleh karena itu, upaya untuk mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi daerahnya melalui pengeluaran daerah yang dibiayai dari pajak daerah lebih rendah dibandingkan di luar jawa. simpulan hasil studi mengenai pengaruh peran pemerintah daerah dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi di era desentralisasi dapat disimpulkan sebagai berikut: pertama, berdasarkan hasil studi menunjukkan bahwa sebelum pelaksanaan desentralisasi selama periode 1995-2000, peran anggaran pemerintah daerah dari sisi penerimaan dan pengeluaran terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi berpengaruh negatif, baik di tingkat nasional, di jawa maupun luar jawa. dalam hal ini, pemerintah daerah belum mampu mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi dengan mengandalkan dan memobilisasi anggaran penerimaan dan pengeluaran daerah yang ada. hal ini disebabkan karena besarnya peran atau dominasi pemerintah pusat dalam menjalankan sistem pemerintahan, termasuk dalam mengatur dan mengendalikan anggaran pemerintah daerah, baik dari sisi penerimaan maupun pengeluaran. kedua, memasuki era desentralisasi selama kurun waktu 2001-2004, pengaruh anggaran peran pemerintah daerah dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi, baik melalui sisi penerimaan maupun pengeluaran mengalami peningkatan dibandingkan sebelum era desentralisasi. namun peran tersebut jauh lebih besar melalui sisi pengeluaran dibandingkan sisi penerimaan, baik di tingkat nasional, di jawa maupun di luar jawa. ketiga, sebelum pelaksanaan era desentralisasi 1995-2000, peran anggaran pemerintah daerah dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi lebih besar melalui dana perimbangan dibandingkan pendapatan asli daerah (pad). memasuki pelaksanaan desentralisasi 2001-2004, peran anggaran pemerintah daerah dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi melalui pendapatan asli daerah (pad) mengalami peningkatan, tetapi masih jauh lebih rendah dibandingkan dana perimbangan, terutama di tingkat nasional di luar jawa. selain itu, berdasarkan hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa setelah era desentralisasi, dampak dana perimbangan cukup signifikan jurnal ekonomi dan studi pembangunan volume 14, nomor 2, oktober 2013: 101-119 116 meningkatkan anggaran pemerintah daerah (apbd), tetapi tidak berdampak secara signifikan mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah. hal ini disebabkan oleh belanja daerah yang masih dominan dalam komponen apbd terutama belanja wrutin, kemungkinan birokrasi pemerintahan yang efisien, dan proses perencanaan pembangunan di daerah yang relatif masih rendah. keempat, selama era desentralisasi 2001-2004, peran anggaran pemerintah daerah dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi melalui pengeluaran pembangunan maupun pengeluaran rutin mengalami peningkatan dibandingkan sebelum era desentralisasi. namun, peran tersebut lebih besar melalui pengeluaran pembangunan dibandingkan pengeluaran rutin. hal ini disebabkan karena alokasi belanja rutin cenderung relatif tidak produktif dibandingkan pengeluaran pembangunan dalam mendorong perekonomian daerah. sementara itu, adanya pengaruh positif anggaran pemerintah daerah terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah melalui pengeluaran pembangunan karena alokasi anggaran pembangunan lebih diprioritaskan pada sektor-sektor yang produktif untuk mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi. kelima, memasuki era desentralisasi selama kurun waktu 2001-2004, pertumbuhan penduduk mengalami peningkatan cukup signifikan dibandingkan sebelum era desentralisasi. hal ini semakin berdampak buruk terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi dibandingkan sebelum pelaksanaan desentralisasi, baik di tingkat nasional, di jawa maupun di luar jawa. hal ini disebabkan karena adanya arus urbanisasi yang cukup tinggi dan adanya pemekaran-pemekaran beberapa daerah provinsi dan kabupaten/kota selama pelaksanaan era desentralisasi. dengan demikian, semakin besarnya jumlah penduduk maka akan berdampak pada penurunan tingkat pendapatan per kapita. keenam, sejak era desentralisasi selama kurun waktu 2001-2004, peran investasi dan keterbukaan daerah berpengaruh besar dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi, baik di tingkat nasional, di jawa maupun di luar jawa. sementara itu, peran pajak daerah dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah mengalami peningkatan sejak memasuki pelaksanaan era desentralisasi, namun masih relatif kecil dalam mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi daerah, baik di tingkat nasional, di jawa maupun di luar jawa. rekomendasi. 1) pemerintah daerah dan partisipasi masyarakat seyogyanya membuat alokasi dana apbd lebih banyak ke pengeluaran pembangunan yang secara langsung berdampak pada peningkatkan ekonomi lokal. upaya yang dapat dilakukan adalah membuat birokrasi pemerintahan yang lebih efisien serta meningkatkan kontrol masyarakat terhadap penggunaan belanja pemerintah daerah untuk mengurangi terjadinya penyimpangan-penyimpangan dan korupsi serta perilaku rent seeking. 2) untuk meningkatkan investasi daerah, pemerintah daerah seharusnya tidak meningkatkan pungutan pajak dan retribusi daerah yang berlebihan dengan dalih untuk peningkatan pad. upaya yang seharusnya dilakukan adalah menciptakan iklim investasi yang kondusif bagi dunia usaha sehingga mampu menarik investor untuk menanamkan modalnya, yang pada gilirannya akan menyerap tenaga kerja lokal dan menjadi sumber pendapatan daerah. pemerintah daerah bahkan seharusnya memberikan insentif dan kemudahan bagi investor melalui kemudahan perijinan, perbaikan infrastruktur perekonomian serta meningkatkan kualitas sumberdaya manusia lokal. 3) studi ini menggunakan data runtut waktu dari tahun 1995 sampai dengan tahun 2004 sehingga peran anggaran pemerintah dari sisi penerimaan dan pengeluaran terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi belum sepenuhnya dirasakan. hal ini mengingat keterbatasan data dan desentralisasi fiskal baru dilaksanakan tahun 2001. oleh karena itu, perlu adanya studi lanjutan dengan menggunakan model estimasi persamaan simultan yang menggabungkan blok keuangan daerah dan blok perekonomian daerah untuk memperoleh hasil yang lebih dinamis dan komprehensif. daftar pustaka bird and vaillancourt. 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(1998). fiscal decentralization, public spending and economic growth in china. world bank, policy research working paper no. 1608. lampiran tabel 1. hasil estimasi pengaruh desentralisasi fiskal dari sisi penerimaan dan pengeluaran terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi sebelum dan sesudah era desentralisasi variabel bebas variabel tidak bebas : pdrb per kapita 1995-2000 nasional (dengan migas) 2001-2004 nasional (dengan migas) 1995-2000 nasional (tanpa migas) 2001-2004 nasional (tanpa migas) 1995-2000 jawa 2001-2004 jawa 1995-2000 luar jawa 2001-2004 luar jawa desentralisasi fiskal sisi penerimaan -0,2159*** -0,0113*** -0,2131*** -0,0027(ts) -0,1088*** -0,0099(ts) -0,2767*** -0,0066(ts) desentralisasi fiskal sisi pengeluaran -0,0330* 0,0099*** -0,0337* 0,0051* -0,0187*** 0,0204(ts) -0,0295(ts) 0,0017(ts) keterbukaan 0,0479(ts) 0,0135* 0,0474(ts) 0,0192*** 0,8195*** 0,0645*** -0,0006(ts) 0,0112(ts) investasi daerah 0,8556*** 0,3190*** 0,8229*** 0,2993*** 0,7661*** 0,2448*** 0,8672*** 0,3348*** pertumbuhan penduduk -0,0061*** -4,4181*** -0,0050*** -5,5049*** -0,0015* -9,5836*** -0,0060** -3,5418*** r 2 0,9996 0,9998 0,9996 0,9998 0,9999 0,9999 0,9995 0,9997 adjusted r2 0,9995 0,9998 0,9995 0,9997 0,9998 0,9999 0,9993 0,9996 prob (f-statistic) 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 dw stat 1,4400 1,7064 1,5608 1,8618 2,0433 2,4935 1,5628 1,5516 sumber : hasil print out komputer. keterangan : ***signifikan pada 1 %, ** signifikan pada 5 %, * signifikan pada 10 %, (ts) tidak signifikan desentralisasi fiskal dan pertumbuhan... (bayu kharisma) 119 tabel 2. hasil estimasi pengaruh pendapatan asli daerah dan dana perimbangan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi sebelum dan sesudah era desentralisasi variabel bebas variabel tidak bebas : pdrb per kapita 1995-2000 nasional (dengan migas) 2001-2004 nasional (dengan migas) 1995-2000 nasional (tanpa migas) 2001-2004 nasional (tanpa migas) 1995-2000 jawa 2001-2004 jawa 1995-2000 luar jawa 2001-2004 luar jawa pendapatan asli daerah (pad) -0,1266*** 0,0040(ts) -0,0102*** 0,0124*** -0,0251(ts) 0,0280(ts) -0,0986*** 0,0048* dana perimbangan 0,1525*** 0,0410*** 0,1237*** 0,0205(ts) -0,0410* 0,0112(ts) 0,2203*** 0,0365*** keterbukaan 0,0376(ts) 0,0117(ts) -0,0587*** 0,0117(ts) 0,7057*** 0,0695** 0,1222(ts) 0,0129(ts) investasi daerah 0,9397*** 0,3072*** 0,8857*** 0,2773*** 0,8561*** 0,1790*** 0,9479*** 0,3156*** pertumbuhan penduduk -0,0091*** -4,7568*** -0,0174*** -5,5429*** -0,0029* -11,165*** -0,0141*** -4,0653*** r 2 0,9998 0,9998 0,9999 0,9999 0,9999 0,9998 0,9997 0,9999 adjusted r2 0,9997 0,9997 0,9999 0,9999 0,9998 0,9996 0,9995 0,9999 prob(fstatistic) 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 dw stat 1,4507 1,8102 1,7217 1,9400 1,6455 2,0333 1,5962 1,6939 sumber : hasil print out komputer keterangan : ***signifikan pada 1 %, ** signifikan pada 5 %, * signifikan pada 10 %, (ts) tidak signifikan tabel 3. hasil estimasi pengaruh belanja rutin dan pembangunan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi sebelum dan sesudah era desentralisasi variabel bebas variabel tidak bebas : pdrb per kapita 1995-2000 nasional (dengan migas) 2001-2004 nasional (dengan migas) 1995-2000 nasional (tanpa migas) 2001-2004 nasional (tanpa migas) 1995-2000 jawa 2001-2004 jawa 1995-2000 luar jawa 2001-2004 luar jawa belanja rutin -0,0369*** -0,0117(ts) -0,0071(ts) 0,00047(ts) -0,0510(ts) -0,0201(ts) -0,0072(ts) -0,0095(ts) belanja pembangunan 0,0217(ts) 0,0284*** 0,0638*** 0,0155*** 0,0327(ts) 0,0015(ts) -0,0867(ts) 0,0173*** keterbukaan 0,1793*** 0,0108(ts) 0,0577* 0,0131*** 0,0922(ts) 0,0664*** 0,1302*** 0,0101(ts) investasi daerah 0,5246*** 0,2558*** 0,5001*** 0,2968*** 0,6958*** 0,1485** 0,4789*** 0,3252*** pajak daerah -0,3205*** 0,0025(ts) -0,2725*** 0,0027(ts) -0,1627*** -0,0287** -0,3463*** -0,0351(ts) pertumbuhan penduduk -0,0067*** -5,6591*** -0,0065*** -5,4815*** -0,0013(ts) -15,659*** -0,0074*** -3,6893*** r 2 0,9999 0,9980 0,9999 0,9999 0,9999 0,9999 0,9996 0,9999 adjusted r2 0,9999 0,9972 0,9999 0,9999 0,9998 0,9999 0,9996 0,9999 prob(f-statistic) 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 0,0000 dw stat 1,8386 1,7230 1,9847 1,8343 1,5739 2,1768 1,7728 1,5353 sumber : hasil print out komputer keterangan : ***signifikan pada 1 %, ** signifikan pada 5 %, * signifikan pada 10 %, (ts) tidak signifikan