DOI: https://doi.org/10.18196/jgp.113121 http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/jsp Forecasting Analysis :The Riau Islands Local Government Role In Covid-19 Disaster Manage- ment JURNAL STUDI PEMERINTAHAN 301 AFFILIATION: Raja Ali HajiMaritimeUniversity; BrawijayaUniversity RAMADHANI SETIAWAN1 &MAHADIANSAR2 ABSTRACT The World Health Organization (WHO) designated COVID-19 as an interna- tional pandemic of disaster. The COVID-19 prevention strategy requires the role of international governments, national governments, and also the local governments. The Riau Islands is strategic closer to the neighboring countries, which will make the government more aware of the current and future disaster management, which will enable it to face the new normal phase after COVID- 19. This writing focused on forecasting analysis opinion (Dunn, 2018) identify- ing future developments. The study used for literature studies reviewed post- covid-19 happening in the Riau Islands (content analysis). The researcher sug- gests two possible scenarios, for the first scenario involving a second COVID-19 wave due to a weakness in disaster management. Then the second, new normal scenario will continue with applying a policy forecasting. Researchers have also provided an alternative policy forecasting model with approach forecasting analysis: the Potential Future, Plausible Future, and Normative Future concept. This forecasting policy model is expected to be a disaster management guide by local governments inIndonesia. KEYWORDS: Disaster Management; Coronavirus; Local Government; The Riau Islands ABSTRAK Organisasi kesehatan dunia (WHO) menetapkan COVID -19 sebagai pandemi bencana internasional. Strategi pencegahan COVID-19 dibutuhkan peran pemerintah baik internasional, nasional hingga ke daerah. Kepulauan Riau merupakan wilayah strategis yang berdekatan negara tetangga membuat pemerintah lebih tanggap dalam manajemen bencana yang harus disiapkan saat ini dan masa yang akan datang, untuk memasuki tahap New Normal pasca COVID-19 ditetapkan pemerintah Indonesia. Tulisan ini berfokus pada forecast- ing analysis opinion (Dunn, 2018) mengidentifikasi yang terjadi di masa akan datang.Penelitianini mengunakan metodestudikepustakaan meninjau kembali peristiwa pasca COVID-19 di kepulauan riau (content analysis). Hasil penelitian menunjukan dua kemungkinan pada scenario pertama terjadinya COVID-19 gelombang kedua dikarenakan kelemahan pada manajemen bencana. Kemudian scenario kedua New Normal tetap berlanjut dengan menerapkan policy fore- CORRESPONDENCE: ramadhanisetiawan@gmail.com; mahadiansar@student.ub.ac.id CITATION: Setiawan, R., & Mahadiansar. (2020). Forecasting Analysis/: The Riau IslandsLocalGovernment Role InCovid-19 Disaster Management. Jurnal Studi Pemerintahan, 11(3), 301–326. ARTICLEHISTORY: Received: June4, 2020 Accepted: October 24, 2020 https://doi.org/10.18196/jgp.113121 http://journal.umy.ac.id/index.php/jsp https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3549-7128 mailto:ramadhanisetiawan@gmail.com mailto:ramadhanisetiawan@gmail.com mailto:mahadiansar@student.ub.ac.id 302 casting. Peneliti juga memberikan alternatif berupa model policy forecating dengan ap- proach opinion forecasting analysis yaitu konsep Potential Future, Plausible Future dan Normative Future. Model forecasting diharapkan menjadi pedoman manajemen bencana oleh pemerintah daerah di Indonesia KATA KUNCI : Manajemen Bencana; Virus Korona; Pemerintah Daerah, Kepulauan Riau INTRODUCTION Local organizations and communities play an important role in disaster management, and risk information supported bysci- entific knowledge is vital. As disaster management experience showed, various organizations including health are coordinated for actions Ishiwatarietal2020. The world is struggling to manage disasters while trying to slow the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 or called COVID-19. COVID-19 has been identi- fied as an infection that causes respiratory attacks and other organs where the disease was first detected in the city of wuhan, China. As is known, SARS-cov-2 is not a new strain of the virus (Huang et al., 2020; Rothan & Byrareddy, 2020; Wu & McGoogan, 2020). however, in scientific explanation a virus is able to mutate in a new genetic makeup, it simply remains of the same strain and only changes its uniform. In treatment, the WHO reported if pandemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) causes fatal groups of pneumonia from COVID-19 with reports of Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation or known as ECMO (Chen et al., 2020; Wang et al., 2020; Wu & McGoogan, 2020; Yang & Yang, 2020). In the care of a suspected covid-19 patient for ECMO recommenda- tions of patients who qualify for respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) related to covid-19 hospitals recommended by the gov- ernment. However, their effectiveness will be affected by initial experience and preparedness of the health care system (Maclaren et al., 2020) such treatment becomes one of the critical stan- dards in COVID-19 treatment. In the same case of infectious viruses, Indonesia has been confronted withtheinfluenza pandemic virus (FLU). Full -scale pandemic measures have shown the capacity of Indonesia and the rest of society is approaching risk management of the pan - demic in a national disaster emergency response. The Indone- sian government chooses alternatives to formulating policies and guidelines for a pandemic outbreak in response to non-natural disasters should be developed in its treatment. The Indonesian government’s work requires further reinforcement of disaster management capacity to reduce the threat of the next influenza pandemic. Then the critical need for more real strategic in the formulation of policies to strengthen the preparedness of the pandemic (Wignjadiputro et al., 2020:4). In dealing with COVID- 19 as social disaster in Indonesia, in the 2007 Law No. 24 of Disaster Relief, Chapter I Section 1 verse 1, disasters are threat- ening and disturbing the lives and livelihoods of society whether caused by human factors or non - natural factors that resulting in human loss, environmental damage, loss of property, and psychological impact. In verses 2, 3, and 4, disasters are distin- guished by 3 categories based on natural disasters, non - natural disasters, and social disasters. Natural disasters are disasters that result from natural or some- thing caused by natural forces such as earthquakes, earth, tsuna- mis, volcanoes, floods, droughts, typhoons, and landslides, whereas non - natural disasters are disasters that result from non-natural that include technological failure, failed modern- ization, epidemics, and pandemics. Social disasters are disasters that result from events or series of events brought on by hu- mans that include social conflicts between groups or between communities, and terror. According to the definition of disas- ter in the 2007 Law No. 24 of Disaster Relief, Chapter I Sec- tion 1 verse 1 and some dictionaries, disaster is an event or se- ries of events of disorder caused by human or natural factors. The normal patterns of threatening life, disrupting society’s lives and livelihoods, thereby resulting in loss of human life, envi- ronmental damage, material loss, and psychological impact. These disturbances or disorders are usually intense, abrupt, un- expected, and unimaginably large areas of coverage. 303 304 Entering new normalstages accordingtoacentralgovern- ment directions, the Riau Islands government through the COVID-19 Task Force in 6 Cities and Regencies are qualified for new normal as the COVID -19 green zone including Tanjungpinang, Anambas and Natuna Island. The conditions of thesix areas arerelatively controlled andtherefore worthy of new normal. But in anticipation of the spread of COVID-19, Tanjungpinang and Bintan are not using new normal terms but the same policy applies to the activities of people who run according to health protocol (Panama, 2020). The aim of this case study is for forecasting analysis by (Dunn, 2018) as a strate- gic effort at handling COVID-19, to avoid the physical harm that is experienced by the Riau Islands society, as well as alterna- tives to accelerate the restoration of society’s social life and pro- vide protection for those affected by COVID-19. LITERATURE REVIEW DISASTER MANAGEMENT Before discussing disaster management, it should be noted that the definition of disaster according to Ulum (2014:9-10) would be an extreme dysfunction of a society that causes exten- sive social and environmental costs and exceeds the capacity of the affected communities to cope with using only their own re- sources. Therearefivekinds ofcatastrophiceffects occurred: 1. Psychological impact; These include trauma, insecurity, nega- tive thinking, depression, and stress. Disasters leave people withfamilies, injuries, loss of livelihood, orassetsthat cause mental suffering. Needed community training on psychoso- cial counseling would enable volunteers to contribute effec- tively during disasters. 2. Theeconomicimpact of society is likelytoseekout andbuild a home that is close to its life activities often resulting in the destruction of living livelihoods and their assets. Disaster re- silience in their economic context depends on traditional knowledge of appropriate skills and the availability of re- sources associated with specific areas and activities. 3. The social impact of the disaster that has yet to result in loss of life can also destroy the civilization of the community and their everyday life of socializing communication eventually fades because of the disaster. 4. The political impact; authority responsiveness on slow such as those would reduce the level of trust between the commu- nity andthevictims tothe disproportionate government and may assume that governments do not do the responsibility or duty in providing protection to their citizens. 5. The ecological effects of disasters often threaten biodiversity and create immense ecological losses. This results in heavy losses for forestry and agricultural participation from com- munities making it possible to carry out programs for ecosys- tem conservation. Coppola (2015) defines disaster management as a practice andprofessionproliferate andimprove. Suchchanges are doubt- less driven by the modern needs of governments and non-gov- ernmental organizations involved in a single phenomenon. In general government policies of threats will always havea power- ful influence onabroadnational organizationalframework. Carter (2008:126-127) explained that such policies should be evident, including the statements of national disaster policy management, then the creation of subsequent disaster laws and national disaster plans, and some forms of policy instructions on the creation of a disaster relief organization. It is uncommon for disaster management officials to begin the creation of an organization for disaster management without any clear direc- tion from the government. building public awareness of disas- ter risk is the most fundamental to equalize community percep- tion to create synergy between government and public in order to achieve the goal of improving society’s resilience to disaster. Danar (2020:85) theneedforeducationandscience is an important and strategic entrance to the building andforming a culture of people concerned with the subject of the transforma- 305 306 tions of disaster. Theeducation ofdisaster is anattempttocon- veymatters of disaster, inordertodevelop knowledge, under- standing, skills, and civic concern to have an awareness of impo- sition and adaptation in disproportionate regions and able to be actively participate to minimize of disasters and address the effects of the disaster. Rijanta et al (2018:38) describing the phase of disaster management has several phases that sometimes have different terminology in various countries, in general, disaster management can be grouped into four stages of mitigation, pre- paredness, emergency response and recovery. Each obviously has different definitions and objectives as an essential part connected to each other in the management of disaster. Disaster events are uncertain because they may and may not happen. Whether it is a potential adverse or harmful effect toa person’s death, an effort to cope with a disaster will need to be made. Disaster management is a series of efforts involving policy enforcement, disasters at risk for disasters, disaster prevention activities, emergency response, and rehabilitation. Furthermore, Tamitiadini et al (2019:6) needs to be noted that the account- ablecommunications system plays avital role in disaster man- agement efforts. A region may go forth to tackle a disaster if they can tackle it independently by involving the community’s capabilities and the task force or executive body it contains. Communication systems accountability in disasters can be seen from the development of the institution, dissemination of in- formation, and the exchange of information obtained. FORECASTING Dunn (2018:119) Forecasting gives a prospective vision of policy results, and it expands the capacity for understanding, control, and guidance of society. Forecasting based on expert assessment, historical trail, or a sophisticated economic model technically, it is susceptible to error by false or unreasonable assumptions. Forecasting also has an effect that is not detected by an institutionalincentive system; And the complexity of policy problems in many areas ranging from health, welfare, educa- tion, science, technology, and the environment. Forecasting focuses on the shape, function, and performance of forecastinginpolicy analysisthat highlights aset of criteriato assess the strength and limitations of various forecasting meth- ods. Forecasting also compares and distinguishes between extra politicalforecasting, theoreticalforecasting, assessment, androle in producing information on the expected results of policies. Forecasting in policy analysis is a set of procedures to make in- formation about a future society based on current and earlier information. Forecasting has the basic three - form principle that should beconsidered: 1. Extrapolations are an estimatimates based on projections of current and historical trends in the future. Projections often raise questions about the validity of conclusions based on in- formation that results from the extrapolation of past trends tothefuture, for example, throughtimeframe analysis. Pro- jections are sometimes equipped with arguments from local orcentral authority. Suchas experts making opinions about projections. 2. Predictions are forecasting based on a theoretical explana- tion of why past trends should repeat in the future. Predic- tions could alsobefurnished with estimates bythe authority of experts, or method authority. 3. Expert forecasting is on professional experience and the au- thority of those who are believed to have a special ability to predict future public conditions. Informal assessment is achieved through intuition, which tends to happen quickly, automatically, and easily (Kahneman, 2003). 307 Than Dunn (2018:124) Forecasting will affect society’s future on current events, which is also defined by (Miller, 1977) as di- vided on three futures: 1. Potential Future; The social situation that may be happening is different from the social situation that is happening. The 308 future situation is never certain until it really happens, and hence there are so many potential futures. Usually, this as- sumption impacts a better future. 2. Plausible Future; The future situation based on the assump- tion of relationships between the environment and society, it is expected that policymakers do not intervene in order to change the course of events. Usually, these assumptions will profoundly affect the more concerned social interactions. 3. Normative future; A potential and plausible future that is consistent with analysts concept needed, values, and oppor- tunities in the future. One important aspect of thenorma- tive future is the goal and target specification. FORECASTING ANALYSIS MODEL IN MANAGING COVID- 19 THE RIAU ISLANDS COVID-19 TASK FORCE Forecasting model should be done by the Riau Islands COVID-19 Task Force, researchers forecasting policies is an up- dated forecasting analysis approach. In the first stage, the model that has the sense of an organization, The COVID-19 Task Force as the main actor in the COVID-19 disaster management, and then the second actor, society as the priority. The society if not directed by the main actor, it will be a diversionary shift in per- spective to determine what should be done in the future. The Riau Islands COVID-19 Task Force sets the Forecasting that will be on the first scenario, COVID-19 second wave, and on the secondscenarioisthenewnormalinwhichonescenariowithin the model will occur in the future. The Riau island society is faced with an uncertain forecasting, if the Task Force Organiza- tion for COVID- 19 does not implement the Opinion Forecast- ing. The indicators Projection, Prediction & Mitigation are not accurate on current New Normal implementation, this will re- quire decisive action on disaster management prepared today by the Riau Islands COVID-19 Task Force. It is feared that Riau island communities with increasing anxiety levels and are not prepared to run the first and the second scenario. CHART 1. MODEL USING OPINION FORECASTING ANALYSIS APPROACH Source : Developing Processed Data Researchers, Dunn (2018) RESEARCH METHOD This writing is a qualitative research with a case study ap- proach (Creswell, 2016). Moleong (2012) claims that qualitative research is methods of adoration and understanding the mean- ing that comes from social or humanitarian problems. Yin (2018) suggests that qualitative research is a study aimed at understand- ingphenomena experienced bythestudy subject in thenatural state of the object. A case study in two defined approaches is viewed from a context where a phenomenon occurs and then scrutinized and from a perspective the nature of the data stud- ied later in analysis, the case study as an in- depth study of phe- nomena occurring in a real-world context, based on data col- lected from various sources and triangulated,nd then employ datacollection techniques and analyses that are determined based on theoretical propositions. Researchers are also searching for some library sources such as e- book, journals, websites, organization reports, and other documents both printed and online media that are relevant to the topic under review (Galvan & Galvan, 2017; Zed, 2014). In this study, the method used is the case study. Researchers are 309 310 trying tofigureouthowto see therole of the Riau Island Pro- vincial government in disaster management incoping with the spread of COVID-19 from 17th of March, 2019 until the 5th of June, 2020 enteringthe New Normal. Additionally, onthiscase researchers are pressing on the forecasting approach as described by Dunn (2018:128), which is a forecasting technique trying to obtain and research opinions of the experts, often based on opinionoremotionofargument, anassumptionontheperson’s creative powers of forecasting being used as the verification of a declaration on the future. Forecasting is linked together with the process of disaster management analysis. Because in it ana- lyzing an event, then the researchers, giving recommendations to the role of local government need to be evaluated in the form of predictions about what will happen in the present and thefuture. Accordingto Dunn, forecastingisanattempttomake factual information about future social situations based on in- formation that exists atthe moment. RESULT AND DISCUSSION OVERVIEW COVID-19 IN THE RIAU ISLANDS On 17th of March, 2020, the positive patient of COVID-19 in The Riau Islands province coincided with 4 other provinces of Special Capital District of Jakarta province, Central Java, East Java, and the confirmed of The Riau Islands Province (Mashabi, 2020). The strategic position of The Riau Islands province be- come one of the highest anticipation levels for the spread of COVID-19 as a direct neighbor to several countries such as Singapore and Malaysia which the initial spread from the for- eign visit was. The Riau Islands COVID-19 Task Force, an orga- nization thathandled the local COVID-19 outbreak. The effort involved substantial socializing to the public about the impor- tance of obeying the health protocol facing the spread of COVID- 19. Through the Ministry of Health of the Republic of Indone- sia, it directly decreed that the four hospitals referred to in the province of The Riau Islands to extend COVID-19 including Raja Ahmad Thabib Hospital (Tanjungpinang), Muhammad Sani Hospital (Karimun), Embung Fatimah Hospital (Batam) and BP Hospital Batam. The Four hospitals had prepared ad- equatemedical equipment, resources, andcasepatterned. CHART 2. CUMULATIVE GRAPH THE RIAU ISLANDS COVID-19 TASK FORCE REPORT PRIOD OF 25TH MARCH – 13TH JUNE 2020 Positive COVID-19 Based on Total Cases Positive COVID-19 Based on Patient Healed Positive COVID-19 Basedon Care and Quarantine Positive COVID-19 Based on Death Source : https://corona.kepriprov.go.id/ Explorative Gaps Forecasting Post COVID-19 Management of the Riau Islands Local Government 311 CHART 3. MONTH NEW CASE COVID-19 IN THE RIAU 17TH MARCH TO 17TH JUNE 2020 Source : Processed Data The extra-apolitical approach of policing has an assumption that provides a basic picture to the Riau Island community of fortune- telling may or may not happen in the future. Forecast- ing the spread of COVID-19 occurs based on the results of han- dling COVID-19 not in accordance with the expectations of the Riau Islands Local government on the decrease in the spread of COVID-19 in the Riau Islands. In March until June 2020, there was no significant decrease in every week in the decrease of COVID-19 cases in Riau Islands until it entered the New Nor- mal stage. In accordance with the data from the Task Force for the Acceleration of COVID -19 in the Riau Islands Province, starting on 17th of March, 2020, there was 1 Positive patient of COVID-19, then the following month on 17th of April,2020 there were 44 Positive people with 34 additions for a month. In the following month 17th of May 2020 there 116 people were positive for COVID-19 with an additional 82 people. And on 17th of June, 2020 there were 236 people positive for COVID- 19 with an additional 154 people, and finally the Central Gov- ernment instructed for the New Normal. In the first scenario, the worst possibility it is likely to have to anticipate the persistence, regularity, & reliability ability pro- cess (described: Explorative Gaps Forecasting Post COVID-19 312 Management of the Riau Islands Local Government) so that the built disaster management can be well anticipated by the Riau Islands COVID-19 Task Force. In addition to the indica- tor, the first scenario would be worse because of the massive spread of the COVID-19, as both local and federal governments already spend large amounts of Both Regional Income and Ex- penditure Budget (APBD) and national Income and Expendi- ture Budget (APBN) for disaster management COVID-19 at the first wave spread. The Riau Islands Local Government contin- ues to prepare funds to anticipate and manage the effects of COVID-19 transmission. Holding the coordination meeting through Video Conference with all the Heads of Regional De- velopment Planning Agencies in Riau Islands Province, byfol- lowing the Ministery of Internal Affairs regulation no 20 of 2020 andthe Ministery of Internal Affairs Instruction No. 1 of 2020. A budget refocusing has been conducted to accelerate the handling of COVID-19 in the Riau Islands Province with a total budget allocation of Rp. 705.5 billion. CHART4. FUTURE FORECASTING STATISTICS COVID 19 (SCENARIO 1) Source: Statistical Package for the Social Sciences version 12 Based onstatisticaldata, thespread of COVID 19 in thesec- ond wave increased significantly in July, August and September. Thedescription of theresults of forecasting analysisstatistics 313 314 shows that the increase in the number of covids in the second wave will be greater than in the post COVID 19 which is cur- rently implementing New Normal, this is likely to be the indis- cipline of Riau Island residents to the health protocol. Second scenario, the odds would be better for New Normal to run well with the indicators Potential future, Plausible future & normativefuture. Theintended Potential future is anassump- tion of New Normal will be usefulforthe Riau Island commu- nity in order to improve psychology, andthe economy after go- ing through that difficult time. The Plausible future on the pub- lic assumption that they will believe the government’s perfor- mance in dealing with COVID- 19, then gain higher public trust and social interaction between local governments and commu- nities. It is well established when there is an emergency action that shows good performance. The last Normative future which assume, determine the needs and desires of the community in accordance with the vision and mission in continuing physical and non-physical development. The development is for the sake of the sustainability of the Riau Islands community. This is be- cause the Riau Islands Local Government announced on 14th of June, 2020 through the COVID-19 Task Force that six Regen- cies and Cities in the region were eligible to carry out New Nor- mal. Furthermore, activities that take place during the New Normal life of the Riau Islands community economy, for ex- ample, reactivate tourism activities by taking into account health protocols. FORECASTING ANALYSIS OPINION POST COVID-19 MANAGEMENT OF THE RIAU ISLANDS LOCAL GOVERN- MENT In accordance with the explanation above, it means that di - saster management for COVID-19 has an explorative gap in the post COVID-19. The central government statement about three things that changed the end of the spread of COVID-19 did not match what was expected. faster or slower than pre- dicted, with the number of cases decreasing or exceeding predic- tions. Forecasting projections on policies that will be formulated after COVID- 19 for the New Normal will scale for the next 3 months, Testing the rate of decline in the spread of COVID-19 in the New Normal period by preparing for the possibilities that will occur in the present and the future according to approxima- tion assumption approach. In principle, highlighting the COVID- 19 disaster management by the Riau Islands COVID-19 task force that adhere to policy alternatives in anticipation of COVID- 19 second wavein the first scenario of theforecasting analysis (Dunn, 2008:309) explains three forecistic assumptions of its approach: persistence, regularity and reliability. Persistence; maintaining phenomenon or consistent with what was observed inthe past will last in thefuture. If the power of persistence has increased at the same rate in the past, this phenomenon will increase considerably in the future. It means the spread of COVID- 19 in the Riau Islands occurred in the past, and it would be possible in the future. The hypothesis is if the indiscipline andomissions were not anticipated bythe Riau Islands COVID-19 Task Force under the proper conditions of new life, So the COVID-19 second wave is even more danger- ous because people’s perspectives already have a current assump- tion that new normal is part of the restoration of life in eco- nomics and social without administering health protocol. Al - thoughthis is only an assumption of persistence that can affect the negative on disaster management, this negative assumption can be avoided whenthe riau islands’ societies realize the cur- rent conditions are not safe from the COVID-19 infectious dis- ease. Regularity; similar circumstances or the phenomenons in which the process occurs several times back in time and occurs in the future. The order in which the spread of the COVID-19 will follow the same pattern and cycle for the second wave of COVID-19 spread. Disaster management roles needs to be en- hanced by improving the organization’s work capacity and evalu- 315 316 ating the COVID-19 spread performance previously entered the New Normal phase. The Riau Islands government should be ready to face the massive outbreak of COVID-19 regulations for occurred in 2009, when Indonesia was able to complete the con- spiracy of the infectious disease (Influenza) through the Minis- try of Health of the Republic of Indonesia. The solution that canbe done onan orderly basis is the need for moresignificant supervision in handling the spread of COVID-19 by giving sanc- tions (public complaints to apply open governance) that do not comply with health protocols and obey them (involving com- munities, traditional leaders and public figures) on community activities. Validity; A reality that occurs gives the same result when re- peated review in period. The phenomenon of handling COVID- 19 spread by the Riau Islands COVID-19 Task Force islands that both persistence and regulation are vital warnings of the first scenario dealing the sceong spread wave of COVID-19. The con- firmation of reliability as to COVID-19, a second wave will un- doubtedly occur if thereisnoabilitytomakean alternativefore- casting analysis on the COVID-19 disaster management strat- egy. It means if this happens then the current application of New Normal not works. It needs tobeidentifiedthenew nor- mal useful or not because thesafety of the Riau Islands society is more important than putting social and economic concerns first if there is no any significant alternative. The solution is an inovation in economic development by increasing the capacity of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (UMKM), young en- trepreneurs, developing tourist destinations with the health pro- tocols, sothat the economy of the Riau Islands community can be encouraged by the local government when the community needs funds for their daily needs. THE RIAU ISLANDS LOCAL GOVERNMENT WEAKNESS ON DISASTER MANAGEMENT OF COVID-19 Based on Presidential Decree No. 9 of 2020 concerning the FIGURE 1. STRUCTURE OF HANDLING COVID 19 BY LOCAL GOVERNMENTS Source : Ministry of Home Affairs of the Republic of Indonesia 2020 3 1 7 318 Acceleration of Handling Covid-19 in Local Government Envi- ronments and Circular Letter of the Ministry of Home Affairs Number 20 Year 2020 Regarding the Acceleration of Corona Virus Disease 2019, the Regional Head acts as the head of a cluster related to the acceleration of Covid-19 handling in the regions andcannot bedelegatedtoother officials in theregion. Inaddition, the Governorisalsoamember of thesteering com- mittee for the national taskforce for handling Covid-19 at the national level. Then the head of the COVID-19 handling acceleration group was led by the governor of the Riau Islands, Mr. H. Isdianto, S. Sos., M.M., the daily chairperson is chaired by the Riau island regional secretariat Mr. H. T.S Arif Fadillah, S.Sos., M.Si., Fur- thermore Deputy Chairman I by the Riau Islands Police Chief Mr. Irjen Pol, Dr. Aris Budiman, M.Si., and Deputy Chairmen II and III, namely Rear Admiral TNI Arsyad Abdullah, S.E., M.AP. currently serves as Lantamal Commander IV and Mr. Sudarwidadi, SH, MH serves as Chief Prosecutor of the Riau Islands. Seeing the increasing number of Covid-19 cases in The Riau Islands and increasingly worrying, Acting Governor Mr. Isdianto movedquicklytoformaspecialteamtohandle Covid-19, which they called the Command Post Team. The team formed based onthe Riau Islands Governor Decree dated May 26, 2020, has become one of the efforts of the Riau Islands Provincial Gov- ernment in dealing with Covid-19 which is increasingly worry- ing because it has influenced the social and economic aspects of the community. local community. Obviously, the decree details some of the main tasks of the Command Post Team in han- dling Covid-19, namely planning, implementing, and evaluat- ing the Covid-19 handling activities that have been carried out by the Task Force Team in Batam. In addition, conduct surveil- lance, health protocol enforcement operations, and prevent the spread of Covid-19. Theteamisalsotasked with collectingand processing data, presenting information and analysis, recom- mending and reporting policies, carrying out public relations and information dissemination functions. Provide support for planning, supply, distribution, recording, and reporting of logis- tics and equipment. The best way to address disaster countermeasures is with the bureaucratic and complex systems that form part of society’s hopeingeneral (Kirschenbaum, 2004:265). Then, asthe most important role holder, the Riau Islands Local Government should reexamine the basic concepts and legal products for fu- ture evaluations so that New Normal phase can be implemented as they should be. the vulnerability of the Riau Islands tothe neighboring countries (Singapore, Malaysia) has the potential to re-spread the COVID-19 second waves in a massive way that some countries already have, need a policy model offered even if the New Normal concepts are implemented. The Riau Islands Government should focus on people condition in the present, primarily saving the economic sector of greed and interpersonal social interaction. Then to be emphasized, the government of the Riau Islandsshouldhaveconceptsintheformofpolicyfore- casting models to avoid the second spread of COVID-19. Re- searchers will attempt a forecasting opinion analysis by develop- ing the thinking of (Kirschenbaum, 2004:266) inherent weak- nesses in management will occur in the future. First; Organizational inconsistencies and contradictions; When the determination of COVID-19 positive patients in the Riau Islands, on 17th of March, 2020, through the Riau Islands Health Service had denied the existence of COVID-19 patients, but in fact the Riau Islands COVID-19 Task Force spokesperson has conducted a press conference for 1 positive patient (Ikhsan, 2020). The Riau Islands Local government already has a task force organization for COVID-19, then with existing contradic- tions it will be difficult to maximize the role of local govern- ments in order to fulfill the mission in context of preventing, anticipating or repreparing the human resources to face the sec- ond wave of COVID-19 spread. The readiness of a Local Gov- ernment leadership, Governor has high levels of professionals to fill the limits of the Riau Island COVID-19 Task Force work- 319 320 ing back from the start in the management of handling the COVID-19. Obviously this will require an approach between the Central Government in funding but the public can see that this control plays both roles between professional vs. bureau- cracy. Second; The basic concept used by the Riau Islands COVID- 19 Task Force depends on understanding the time of the sec- ond wave of COVID-19 spread, and therefore the human re- sources and directed execution duty is considerable thanprepa- ratory to the worst scenario of either technical error or deliber- ate conflict that has taken place on the first COVID-19 spread. Technical errors and intentional conflict, where the provincial government collaborates in the management of COVID-19 pre- ventive health protocols with the State of Singapore (see the Riau Islands public relations website about Riau Islands discusses COVID-19 management protocols) The Riau Islands Local Gov- ernment has to first establish communication with Indonesian government regulation in management of COVID-19 disaster management between countries. The Riau Islands COVID-19 Task Force would lose boththe direction and exactly what they want to be completed, even resulting new cases if managing COVID-19 through cooperation by the regional government of The Riau Islands Local Government precedes the central Indo- nesian Government. The COVID-19 disaster control concept is much more dangerous to war against terrorists if the treatments is not carefully carried out. Third; The Riau Islands COVID-19 Task Force understand- ing for the Acceleration of Handling, the Governor of the goals and targets, not all stakeholders with their perceptions in han- dling COVID 19 and can occur at the current New Normal, because the formulation and concept of disaster management that was formed did not understand the conditions. For example, theperception of the Governor of the Riau Islands believes that in July the Riau Islands community is free from COVID 19, in fact there is still COVID-19 and the second wave of COVID-19 (see hariankepri.com). even though the social assistance program is the main program by the Task Force for the Acceleration of Handling COVID-19, However, public education is very worry- ing because the community’s insight about the Covid-19 Disas- ter can still be overcome by the government only, even though looking at the conditions occurring early in the spread of COVID- 19, many peopledonotfollowthehealth protocol. Datafrom the Riau Islands Health Office in April 2020 showedthat People Without Symptomatic (OTG) for COVID-19 continued to in- crease sharply (Alamsyah, 2020) , The best solution needs to involve the private sector in partnership to avoid the second wave of COVID-19 victims. This is very relevant because many need cooperation in ending total spread of COVID-19. Fourth; Beyondthe COVID-19 Task Force, certainlysomeof the communities within each regency/city have their own way of coping in their own social-based way to discontinue the spread of COVID-19. The public acted actively like a campaign to cre- ate a social network that was channeled as public knowledge of how andwhatto do toact on thedisaster and topass onnew information through other technologies deemed by the public to channel a platform for socializing, breaking the spread of COVID-19 by not following the policy of the Riau Islands through the Riau Islands COVID-19 Task Force. It means that the Riau Islands community have better communication ability than they do to hear the local government directions, though this is af- fecting both sides, but the electability of public trust in local governments is declining. Fifth; Public pessimism toward the Riau Islands COVID-19 Task Force will be realized if the second COVID-19 wave is present, there is potential in viewing COVID-19 deaths in the Riau Islands. The potential pessimistic is due to acatastrophic gap in the effectiveness of the Task Force, but people expect victims of the COVID-19 second wave to impact their previous mortality rate. Public pessimism indicates that the Riau Islands COVID-19 Task Force has a bureaucratic system that prioritizes 321 322 economic andsocial risk ratherthansociety itself (Health). Itis abureaucratic system thatworksin handling of a disaster. TARGET AND ALTERNATIVE FORECASTING OFTHE RIAU ISLANDS LOCAL GOVERNMENT ROLE IN HAN- DLING NEW NORMAL IN THE POST COVID-19 Authorities on the New Normal treatment in the Riau Is- lands is ready for the two scenarios that will occur, through the Opinion Forecasting Analysis that will become a basis for discus- sion for experts and for the Riau Islands COVID-19 Task Force as well, The next appointed authority will be executed as an effort to improve the quality of performance of the COVID-19 Task Force towards disaster management. Because it concerns healthfactors in the survival of thehuman soul and no more victims of the COVID-19 pandemic after implementing the New Normal. The insight for the implementation of New Normal Post Covid-19 in the Riau Islands, in thiscase, the Riau Islands Gov- ernment may not play its own role, local governments must have more insight, such as involving the community, while maintain- ing the health protocol and having a new spirit. This insight is very important to eliminate the psychological, economic, eco- logical, political, and social impacts. where there is a real re- newal so that the application of New Normal can be felt directly by the people in the Riau Islands. Assessment and knowledge are useful for understanding a problem that occurs during New Normal in the long term by the Riau Islands COVID-19 Task Force. Looking for alternatives for the New Normal to be able to innovate by conducting scientific research prepared to answer the possibility that will occur based on methods that are tar- geted right after COVID 19, in order to prevent the first sce- nario namely COVID-19 second wave. Looking for alternatives intended based on research scientific research such as in the field of health, food security, and in the field of community empowerment. The alternative is an effort to strengthen the policy of implementing the New Normal so that the disaster management prepared by the Riau Islands COVID-19 Task Force for Acceleration Handling can gain public trust so there is no neglect. CONCLUSION The policy forecasting model with the Opinion forecasting analysis approach in order to provide an alternative and fore- casting that identifies the past, present and future to strengthen disaster management implemented by the Riau Islands COVID- 19 Task Force. Explorative gaps in forecasting post-COVID-19 handling by the Riau Islands local government are a serious warning because the bureaucratic system in the Indonesian gov- ernment is very slow in making decisions, especially in handling disaster management needs to be responsive in policies made by implementing agencies or task forces. The explorative gap in forecasting with the negative impacts awakens the awareness that during the period of the application of the New Normal there is no guarantee that the government will run well in ac- cordance with the wishes of the community. The weaknesses of the Riau islands local government han- dling the COVID-19 disaster management which has been ex- plained that the Riau Islands local government has the oppor- tunity to conduct periodic evaluations bythe Task Force for the Acceleration of COVID-19 in the Riau Islands to improve di- saster management sothat there is no internal conflict or coor- dination betweenexistingstakeholders boththepublic andpri- vate sectors in eradicating COVID-19 totally. The weaknesses that the researchers explained does not mean that the Riau Is- lands government was incapable but provided a scientific analy- sis of the handling of COVID- 19 internally in the Riau islands COVID-19 Task Force. It is very important because of public expectations with implementing organizations in handling COVID-19 can end soon because the whole community feels 323 324 bad impacts on their lives. Targets and alternatives forecasting for therole of the Riau Islands local government in the Management of New Normal after COVID- 19, researchers are offering about the authority, insight in handling and alternatives in the form of innovations conducting studies in various fields such as health and food secu- rity, sothat thecommunity canbeempowered tothemaximum extent possible when management disaster in the New Normal period is better, then innovative policies from the local govern- ment it is expected to face the future, the need for certainty of targets and alternatives so that the lives of the people of the Riau Islands become better in terms of economic, social, politi - cal, health and education which is the main pillar of the nation and state. 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