D:\sbornik\...\article1.DVI Mathematical Problems of Computer Science 33, 59{65, 2010. Statistical P ostpr ocessing of the Output fr om N umer ical Weather P r ediction System Tig r a n V . K h o t s a n ya n , V la d im ir G. S a h a kya n a n d Ir in a A . S a fa r ya n Institute for Informatics and Automation Problems of NAS RA Abstract This article is devoted to the investigation of relation between really observed me- teorological parameters and the forecast of the same parameters produced by a nu- merical weather prediction system. A statistical correction method of the output from the model of the system is suggested which improves the forecast by coe±cient of overlapping, root mean square error and Pearson's correlation. Refer ences [1 ] T.N . K r is h n a m u r t i, a n d L . B o u n o u a ,\ A n In t r o d u c t io n t o N u m e r ic a l W e a t h e r P r e d ic t io n Te c h n iqu e s " , B oca R aton F L US:, CR C P ress, 1 9 9 6 . [2 ] L .M. L e s lie , K . Fr a e d r ic h a n d T. J. Glo wa c ki \ Fo r e c a s t in g t h e s kill o f a r e g io n a l we a t h e r p r e d ic t io n m o d e l" , M onthy W eather R eview, vo l. 1 1 7 , p p . 5 5 0 -5 5 7 , 1 9 8 9 . [3 ] H a n s e n J. A . a n d K . A . E m a n u e l, \ Fo r e c a s t 4 D -V a r : E xp lo it in g Mo d e l Ou t p u t S t a t is - t ic s " Quarterly J ournal of R oyal M eteorol. Soc. vo l. 1 2 9 , p p . 1 2 5 5 -1 2 6 7 , 2 0 0 3 . [4 ] M. P . Cla r k a n d L .E . H a y, \ U s e o f m e d iu m -r a n g e n u m e r ic a l we a t h e r p r e d ic t io n m o d e l o u t p u t t o p r o d u c e fo r e c a s t s o f s t r e a m ° o w" , J ournal of Hydrometeorlogical, vo l. 5 , p p . 1 5 -3 2 , 2 0 0 4 . [5 ] A . K u m a r , P . Ma in i, L .S . R a t h o r e a n d S .V . S in g h , \ S kill o f s t a t is t ic a l in t e r p r e t a t io n fo r e c a s t in g s ys t e m d u r in g m o n s o o n s e a s o n in In d ia " , Atmospheric Science L etters, vo l. 1 0 , p . 1 3 , 2 0 0 0 . [6 ] D . O.S ilva , F.J. Me z a , a n d E . V a r a s , \ U s e o f m e s o s c a le m o d e l MM5 fo r e c a s t s a s p r o xie s fo r s u r fa c e m e t e o r o lo g ic a l a n d a g r o c lim a t ic va r ia b le s " , Ciencia e Investigacion Agraria, 36(3), p p . 3 6 9 -3 8 0 , 2 0 0 9 . [7 ] N OA A 's N a t io n a l W e a t h e r S e r vic e . Cu r r e n t MOS Fo r e c a s t P r o d u c t io n , h t t p :/ / www.n ws .n o a a / m d l/ s yn o p / p r o d u c t s .p h p [8 ] J. P . D a lla va lle , M. C. E r ic ks o n , a n d J. C. Ma lo n e y, \ Mo d e l o u t p u t s t a t is t ic s ( MOS ) g u id a n c e fo r s h o r t -r a n g e p r o je c t io n s " , 20th Conference of W eather Analysis and F ore- casting, Seattle, Amer. M eteor.Soc., P r e p r in t s , p p .1 -1 1 , 2 0 0 4 . [9 ] C. Ma z b r a n , S . S a n d g a t h e , E . K a ln a y, \ MOS , P e r fe c t P r o g a n d R e a n a lys is " , M on. W ea. R ev.,1 3 4 , p p . 6 5 8 -6 6 3 , 2 0 0 6 . [1 0 ] F. S c h m id a n d A . S c h m id t , \ N o n p a r a m e t r ic e s t im a t io n o f c o e ± c ie n t o f o ve r la p p in g - t h e o r y a n d e m p ir ic a l a p p lic a t io n " , Computational Statistics and D ata Analysis, vo l. 5 0 , p p . 1 5 8 3 -1 5 9 6 , 2 0 0 6 . 5 9 6 0 Statistical Postprocessing of the Output from Numerical Weather Prediction System [1 1 ] T.V . K h o t s a n ya n , \ N u m e r ic a l we a t h e r p r e d ic t io n e n vir o n m e n t fo r t h e t e r r it o r y o f A r - m e n ia " ,M athematical P roblems of Computer Science vo l. 3 3 , 8 3 { 9 0 , 2 0 1 0 . [1 2 ] T. Gn e it in g , F. B a la b d a o u i a n d A . E . R a ft e r y, \ P r o b a b ilis t ic fo r e c a s t s , c a lib r a t io n a n d s h a r p n e s s " , Technical R eport, N 4 8 3 , p p . 1 -3 1 , D e p a r t m e n t o f S t a t is t ic s , U n ive r s it y o f W a s h in g t o n , 2 0 0 5 . [1 3 ] h t t p :/ / www.c lu s t e r .a m / wr f/ s t a t [1 4 ] D . S . W ilks , T. M. H a m ill, \ Co m p a r is o n o f e n s e m b le -MOS u s in g GFS r e fo r e c a s t " , Mo n . W e a . R e v.1 3 5 , p p . 2 3 8 0 -2 3 8 9 , 2 0 0 7 . ºÕ³Ý³ÏÇ Ãí³ÛÇÝ Ï³Ý˳ï»ëÙ³Ý Ñ³Ù³Ï³ñ·Ç ³ñ¹ÛáõÝùÝ»ñÇ íÇ׳ϳ·ñ³Ï³Ý í»ñ³Ùß³ÏáõÙ î. Êáó³ÝÛ³Ý, ì. ê³Ñ³ÏÛ³Ý ¨ Æ. ê³ý³ñÛ³Ý ²Ù÷á÷áõÙ ²ß˳ï³ÝùÁ ÝíÇñí³Í ¿ Çñ³Ï³ÝáõÙ ¹Çï³ñÏí³Í ¨ ϳÝ˳ï»ëí³Í ÙǨÝáõÛÝ û¹»ñ¨áõóµ³Ý³Ï³Ý å³ñ³Ù»ïñ»ñÇ Ñ³ñ³µ»ñáõÃÛ³Ý Ñ»ï³½áïÙ³ÝÁ: ²é³ç³ñÏí³Í ¿ ϳÝ˳ï»ëí³Í ïíÛ³ÉÝ»ñÇ áõÕÕÙ³Ý íÇ׳ϳ·ñ³Ï³Ý »Õ³Ý³Ï, áñÁ µ³ñ»É³íáõÙ ¿ ϳÝ˳ï»ëáõÙÁ Áëï ͳÍÏí³ÍáõÃÛ³Ý ·áñͳÏóÇ, ÙÇçÇÝ ù³é³Ïáõë³ÛÇÝ ë˳ÉÇ ³ñÙ³ïÇ ¨ äÇñëáÝÇ Ñ³ñ³µ»ñ³ÏóáõÃÛ³Ý ·áñͳÏÇóÁ: