82 www.r-economy.ru R-ECOMONY, 2018, 4(3), 82–87 doi: 10.15826/recon.2018.4.3.012 Online ISSN 2412-0731 Original Paper doi: 10.15826/recon.2018.4.3.012 Diversification of tourism and economic development of Kazakhstan Aksanat Zh. Panzabekova Institute of Economics of the Committee of Science of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Almaty, Kazakhstan; e-mail: aksanat@mail.ru ABSTRACT Th e article aims to demonstrate how the economic conditions of Kazakhstan determine the need for horizontal diversifi cation in the tourism industry by analyzing the correlations between the volume of tourism services and such indicators as the GDP, unemployment, tenge exchange rate, infl ation and the number of small and medium-sized enterprises. Th e overview of the tourism industry in the republic and its development prospects shows that tourism has been playing an increasingly important role in the country’s economy. Th e negative factors that hinder development of the tourism industry in Ka- zakhstan include the lack of transport and information infrastructure, the unstable banking sector and unaff ordable business loans, the lack of quali- fi ed personnel in marketing, catering and hospitality spheres. A conclusion is made that the potential for the development of recreation, sport, cultural, ecological and religious tourism is not fully realized in the country and that a more diversifi ed portfolio of tourism products is required. Moreover, it is necessary to enhance the country’s economic growth, that is, to reduce its dependence on oil and gas, support the development of the banking sector and implement structural reforms. Th e results of this research can be used for designing state and regional tourism support programs in Kazakhstan. KEYWORDS Identifi cation, diversifi cation, tourism, economic development, Kazakhstan FOR CITATION Panzabekova, A. Zh. (2018) Diversification of tourism and economic development of Kazakhstan. R-economy, 4(3), 82–87. doi: 10.15826/recon.2018.4.3.012 Диверсификация туризма и экономического развития Казахстана А. Пазанбекова Институт экономики Комитета науки Министерства образования и науки Республики Казахстан, Алматы, Казахстан; e-mail: aksanat@mail.ru РЕЗЮМЕ Целью статьи является демонстрация того, как экономические условия Казахстана определяют необходимость горизонтальной диверсифика- ции в индустрии туризма путем анализа корреляций между объемом туристических услуг и такими показателями, как ВВП, безработица, обменный курс тенге, инфляция и количество мелких и средних пред- приятий. Обзор индустрии туризма в республике и перспектив ее раз- вития показывает, что туризм играет все более важную роль в экономи- ке страны. Отрицательными факторами, препятствующими развитию индустрии туризма в Казахстане, являются отсутствие транспортной и информационной инфраструктуры, нестабильный банковский сектор и недоступные бизнес-кредиты, отсутствие квалифицированного пер- сонала в сферах маркетинга, общественного питания и гостиничного бизнеса. В статье сделан вывод о том, что потенциал развития рекре- ационного, спортивного, культурного, экологического и религиозного туризма в стране не полностью реализован и что требуется более ди- версифицированный портфель туристических продуктов. Более того, необходимо усилить экономический рост страны, то есть уменьшить зависимость от нефти и газа, поддержать развитие банковского сектора и провести структурные реформы. Результаты этого исследования мо- гут быть использованы для разработки государственных и региональ- ных программ поддержки туризма в Казахстане. КЛЮЧЕВЫЕ СЛОВА идентификация, диверсификации, туризм, экономическое развитие, Казахстан ДЛЯ ЦИТИРОВАНИЯ Panzabekova, A. Zh. (2018) Diversifi cation of tourism and economic development of Kazakhstan. R-economy, 4(3), 82–87. doi: 10.15826/recon.2018.4.3.012 R-ECOMONY, 2018, 4(3), 82–87 doi: 10.15826/recon.2018.4.3.012 83 www.r-economy.ru Online ISSN 2412-0731 Introduction Th e travel and tourism industry is subject to a range of external pressures, such as political and economic instability in tourist destination regions as well as demographic processes in the countries where tourism companies are located [1]. Th ere- fore, diversifi cation of tourist packages, geograph- ical markets, and tourism technologies is widely used in developed countries. In Kazakhstan, this can prove to be a viable solution for the problems the tourism industry is currently facing, making this sector more fl exible and adaptable to change. Th ere is a vast body of research that deals with various aspects of diversifi cation in tourism: for in- stance, the question of priorities in diversifi cation on the level of individual enterprises [2–4], on the level of rural areas, regions and countries [5–8]. Th is paper aims to show how the current eco- nomic conditions in Kazakhstan determine the need to diversify the portfolio of tourism products in Kazakhstan to make the industry more effi cient. Methodology Our methodology is based on dialectic, sys- temic, and descriptive approaches, which allow us to study the problem by adopting the method of scientifi c abstraction, logical analysis, compar- ison, cause and eff ect analysis. By applying these methods and approaches, we analyze the link be- tween diversifi cation in tourism industry and the country’s economic development and identify the factors that infl uence the development of tour- ism in Kazakhstan. Th erefore, we have chosen the following key economic indicators: GDP, unem- ployment, tenge exchange rate, infl ation, and the number of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). We also analyzed the data provided by international organizations’ reports. General characteristics of the tourism industry in Kazakhstan Tourism is one of the main sectors of econo- my in Kazakhstan, crucial for the country’s social, cultural and environmental development. Although tourism is one of the world’s larg- est industries, ranking third in terms of revenues aft er oil and gas industry and car manufacturing [9], in Kazakhstan, it accounts for only 0.9% of the GDP. According to Th e Travel & Tourism Compet- itiveness Report of the 2017 World Economic Fo- rum, Kazakhstan ranks 81st among 136 countries1. 1 Kazakhstan Ranks 81st in the WEF Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Index. Retrieved from https://informburo.kz/ novosti/kazahstan-zanyal-81-mesto-v-reytinge-konkurentos- posobnosti-v-sfere-turizma.html In  2017, the government of Kazakhstan adopted the Roadmap for Tourism Development in Kazakh- stan, which set the target of increasing the share of tourism in the GDP to 8% by 20252. Current trends in the development of tourism in Kazakhstan can lead to the improvement of the situation in the future: for instance, while in 2000, 1.47 million of foreign tourists visited Kazakh- stan, their number rose to 7.7 million in 20163. At the same time, according to internation- al experts, tourism in Kazakhstan still has a long way to go, despite the abundance of sites of out- standing natural beauty. Th e negative factors that are off -putting to tourists are the poor quality of services and the lack of developed transport in- frastructure4. Research literature identifi es three major types of tourism – inbound, outbound and do- mestic. As for the purpose of travel, we can distin- guish cultural, ethnic, religious, sport, recreation- al, educational, exotic, ecological, transit, rural, adventure, medical, space, event and academic tourism [10]. Outbound tourism is the most developed type of tourism in Kazakhstan: the country’s residents travel to Europe, America, Middle East, and South-Eastern Asia. In 2017, there were 23,524.9  thousand of tourists, out of whom 10,260.8 were outbound tourists; 7,701.2, in- bound tourists; and 5,562.9, domestic tourists5. In this paper, we are going to focus on inbound and domestic tourism in Kazakhstan. According to the Statistics Committee of the Ministry of National Economy, the structure of inbound tourism by trip purpose looks the fol- lowing way (Table 1). Out of 12,117 visitors arrived in Kazakhstan in June 2017, 46% came to see friends and family (which does not exclude other purposes); 20.6%, for recreation; and 24.6%, were business travel- lers. Th e remaining 8.8% had other purposes. 2 Decree of the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan of 30 June 2017 No 406 Roadmap for Tourism Development in Kazakhstan until 2023. Retrieved from https://online.zakon. kz/Document/?doc_id=39370590 3 International Tourism, Number of Arrivals. Kazakhstan. Workbank. World Development Indicators. Retrieved from http://mecometer.com/topic/international-tourism-num- ber-of-arrivals 4 Summer Holiday in Kazakhstan? Astana Eases Visa Restrictions to Attract Tourists. Retrieved from https://www. theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/17/kazakhstan-eases-vi- sa-restrictions-attract-tourists 5 Statistics Committee, Ministry of National Economy, Kazakhstan (2018) Key Indicators of Tourism. In: Statistical Bulletin. Astana. 84 www.r-economy.ru R-ECOMONY, 2018, 4(3), 82–87 doi: 10.15826/recon.2018.4.3.012 Online ISSN 2412-0731 Table 1 Distribution of inbound travellers by the purpose of visit in June 2017 Purpose Number of visitors Leisure, recreation and holiday 2,498 Visiting friends and family 5,573 Education and professional training 336 Health and medical treatment 408 Religion and pilgrimage 110 Shopping 163 Transit 37 Business 2,992 Total 12,117 Source: Statistics Committee, Ministry of National Econ- omy, Kazakhstan (2018) Distribution of Inbound Travellers by the Purpose of Visit. In: Statistical Bulletin. Astana. It should be noted that diversifi cation of tourist packages is insuffi cient, which makes the country unattractive for foreign tourists and is detrimen- tal to the revenues of tourist companies. In 2017, the total volume of hospitality services in Kazakh- stan was 108,359,760.4 thousand tenge, which ac- counted for 2.1% of the country’s GDP. Art, en- tertainment and leisure accounted for 1.8%. Out of 7.7  million of inbound tourists, 1.3  million or 16.4% used the services of resort facilities, hotels, and facilities located in protected natural areas6. Tourism diversification and economic development in Kazakhstan To analyze the connection between tourism diversifi cation and characteristics of Kazakhstan’s economic development we need to look at the key indicators (Table 2). Table 2 Key indicators of macro-economic development in Kazakhstan in 2013–2017 Year Indicator GDP (mil- lion tenge) Tenge ex- change rate (USD/KZT)* Unem- ploy- ment (%) Infl a- tion (%) Th e number of SMEs 2013 35,999,025.1 152.3 5.2 4.8 888,233 2014 39,675,832.9 179.19 5.0 7.4 926,844 2015 40,884,133.6 221.73 5.1 10.4 1,242,579 2016 46,971,150.0 342.16 5.0 8.5 1,106,353 2017 53,101,281.8 326 4.9 7.1 1,145,994 Source: Statistics Committee, Ministry of National Econ- omy, Kazakhstan (2018) Key Indicators of Socio-Economic Development of the Republic of Kazakhstan. In: Statistical Bulletin. Astana; (*) Average Offi cial Foreign Currency Rates in the Period 2013–2017. National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Retrieved from http://nationalbank.kz/?do- cid=763&switch=russian 6 Statistics Committee, Ministry of National Economy, Kazakhstan (2018). Key Indicators of Tourism. In: Statistical Bulletin. Astana. As Table 2 illustrates, there is a stable growth in the GDP in each period; the national currency is unstable (since 2013, the dollar-tenge exchange rate has changed by 138%); the level of unem- ployment is relatively stable; infl ation is volatile, although it does not reach the critical values; the number of small- and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) is growing. If we compare these indicators with the vo- lume of services (Table 3), we will see the correla- tion between the development of tourism indus- try and the key economic indicators. Table 3 Volume of services provided by accommodation facilities in diff erent years (ths. tenge) Year Volume of services 2013 59,714,164.2 2014 72,401,941.1 2015 72,597,228.3 2016 82,853,434.6 2017 108,359,760.4 Source: Statistics Committee, Ministry of National Econ- omy, Kazakhstan (2018). Volume of Services Provided by Ac- commodation Facilities. In: Statistical Bulletin. Astana. Th e results of our calculations are shown in Table 4. Table 4 Coeffi cients of correlation between macro-economic indicators and the volume of services provided by accommodation facilities Pairs of indicators Correlation coeffi cient GDP – Volume of services 0.98 Tenge exchange rate 0.82 Unemployment – Volume of services –0.90 Infl ation – Volume of services 0.17 Th e number of SMEs – Volume of services 0.52 Note: based on the data from Table 2 and 3. Th us, there is virtually no correlation between infl ation and the volume of services provided by accommodation facilities. Th ere is, however, a very strong inverse correlation between unem- ployment and the volume of services since the development of tourism means more jobs and is associated with the decreasing rate of unemploy- ment. Th ere is also a strong correlation between the GDP and the volume of services as both of these indicators have been growing steadily. We cannot be absolutely sure about the impact of the GDP on the growth of tourism or vice versa. Th e correlation between the volume of services and the two remaining indicators is more evident, though. R-ECOMONY, 2018, 4(3), 82–87 doi: 10.15826/recon.2018.4.3.012 85 www.r-economy.ru Online ISSN 2412-0731 For instance, the drop in tenge value caused an in- crease in the demand for services because foreign tourists were attracted by lower prices. Th us, the falling exchange rate of the national currency had a positive impact on inbound tourism. Th ere is a weak correlation between the number of SMEs and the volume of services. Th erefore, we can conclude that tourism accounts for an insignifi - cant share in the overall increase in the number of SMEs in the country and that the infl ux of new companies in the tourism industry in Kazakhstan is comparatively small. Th is fact is supported by the data of the Sta- tistics Committee, which recorded a 9% decline in the sphere of inbound tourism. In the fourth quarter of 2017, Kazakh tourists preferred to trav- el abroad (63% of respondents against 49% in 2016). Th ey were attracted by the better developed tourist infrastructure, better cost-quality balance, and the wider choice of accommodation facilities. At the same time, in Kazakhstan, there was a rise in demand for overseas tours and a decrease in the employment rate in the tourism sector in com- parison with 2016. Business owners themselves pointed out that the decline in demand for tourist services had the biggest infl uence on the econom- ic performance of their companies. To gain a better understanding of the prob- lem, let us look at the reports published by inter- national organizations. Th e World Bank pointed out the three major risks faced by the country’s economy: the weaker external demand, escalation of problems in the banking sector, and weak im- plementation of the structural reforms. Th erefore, it is recommended that the government should make progress in deepening structural reforms aimed at diversifi cation of economy and to en- hance the country’s economic potential in non-oil sectors. According to the report, the oil sector was the main driver of economic growth, as oil out- put increased by 12.5% in the fi rst nine months of 2017 due to the launch of production at the off -shore oil fi eld Kashagan7. Another factor con- tributing to this trend was the increase in oil pric- es by 24%. Additionally, the construction sector rebounded due to new large capacity expansion projects in the oil sector. In other sectors, there is a growth in the pro- duction sphere, agriculture, transport and trade. 7 World Bank Kazakhstan’s Economy is Rising – It is Still All About Oil. Country Economic Update. Retrieved from http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/kazakhstan/publica- tion/economic-update-fall-2017 Despite the rise of foreign trade, the volume of di- rect foreign investment has shrunk. According to the World Bank’s forecast, if Kazakhstan manages to implement its structural reforms successfully, it will help increase diversifi - cation and the potential of the country’s economy. Th e 100 Concrete Steps program and privatiza- tion are expected to reduce the role of the state in economy and enhance trade in sectors other than oil and gas. A robust fi scal and monetary policy can maintain the economic and price stability, which help attract more investment to the non- oil sectors. Th e government still needs to address such problems as the prevalence of state-owned companies in economy, the lack of qualifi ed workforce, the macro-economic vulnerabilities, and the lack of interregional cooperation8. Th e decline in the real income of the popu- lation and the falling national currency, which make exchange transactions unprofi table, ham- per the development of outbound tourism. At the same time the development of inbound and domestic tourism is diffi cult due to the underper- forming national tourist companies, which fail to devise and promote tourist routes to destinations in Kazakhstan. Th eoretically, it would be possible to stimulate companies through aff ordable busi- ness loans. Th is, however, seems problematic tak- ing into consideration the unstable banking sec- tor and the comparatively high refi nancing rate in Kazakhstan. Th us, Kazakhstan has potential for tourism development but fi nds it hard to realize it, both in terms of domestic and international tourism. As of 2016, there are 2,031 tourist companies op- erating in the country. Th ere are 2,754 accommo- dation facilities with 128,062 beds, which is 16.6% more than in 2015. Th e occupancy rate in 2016 was 23.8%, that is, over 75% of beds were vacant at the same time9. According to the Roadmap for Tourism Deve- lopment in Kazakhstan Until 2023, “accommoda- tion prices in places with a high level of hospitality services are much higher than in their counter- parts in other tourist destinations of the world. Th e average price for a standard room in a 5* hotel 8 World Bank Kazakhstan’s Economy is Rising – It is Still All About Oil. Country Economic Update. Retrieved from http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/kazakhstan/publica- tion/economic-update-fall-2017 9 Decree of the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan of 30 June 2017 No 406 Roadmap for Tourism Development in Kazakhstan until 2023. Retrieved from https://online.zakon. kz/Document/?doc_id=39370590 86 www.r-economy.ru R-ECOMONY, 2018, 4(3), 82–87 doi: 10.15826/recon.2018.4.3.012 Online ISSN 2412-0731 in Astana or Almaty is about 20% higher than the average price for a similar room in top European cities and tourist destinations”10. Exorbitant pric- es make tours to Kazakhstan even more expensive and are detrimental to the country’s competitive- ness on the global market. Figure illustrates the demand for Kazakhstan as a tourist destination11. 5,000,000 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 20 14 20 15 20 16 20 17 Residents Non-residents Th e number of tourists in Kazakhstan Th is graph shows that the growth rates of do- mestic tourism exceed those of inbound tourism; the volume of domestic tourism is higher than that of inbound tourism; in general, there has been a growing demand for tourism, although 2007–2008 and 2014–2015 were the periods of recession. In 2014 and 2015, for instance, domes- tic tourism was in decline while inbound tourism failed to show any signs of growth. Th is slowdown was likely to be caused by the falling tenge, which mostly aff ected the country’s residents. Th e majority of tourists (82.8%) come from Kazakhstan; as for tourists from other countries, Russia accounts for the largest share of non-res- ident tourists (31.4%); China, 7.4%; the USA, 5.9%; Turkey, 5.9%; Germany, 4.5%; 2.9%, Italy; and 42% come from other countries12. 10 Decree of the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan of 30 June 2017 No 406 Roadmap for Tourism Development in Kazakhstan until 2023. Retrieved from https://online.zakon.kz/ Document/?doc_id=39370590 11 Statistics Committee, Ministry of National Economy, Kazakhstan (2018). Economic Activity of Enterprises in Ka- zakhstan. In: Statistical Bulletin. Astana; Statistics Committee, Ministry of National Economy, Kazakhstan (2018). Th e Num- ber of Domestic Tourists using Tourist Accommodation Facili- ties (Residents). In: Statistical Bulletin. Astana. 12 Decree of the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan of 30 June 2017 No 406 Roadmap for Tourism Development in Kazakhstan until 2023. Retrieved from https://online.zakon.kz/ Document/?doc_id=39370590 As for the purpose of trips, business travellers prevailed (54.1%). 45.6% were holiday-makers. Th e majority were private tourists (75.4%) while business travellers accounted for 16.2%13. Th erefore, we can conclude that tourism in Kazakhstan mostly relies on the country’s resi- dents and on business trips of non-residents, that is, the potential of recreational, sport, cul- tural, ecological and religious tourism is not ful- ly realized. International experience shows that in order to increase the share of tourism in the country’s GDP, it is essential to attract more foreign holi- day-makers14. For instance, Europe is overpopu- lated, which means that European tourists would welcome the opportunity to escape crowds of tourists and enjoy being along with nature15. Even though the tourism infrastructure has been improving in the recent years, high prices still discourage foreign tourists from choosing Kazakh- stan as a place of destination. In this respect, Ka- zakhstan cannot cope with the competition from its neighbours – Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan16. It is possible to lower the prices and improve the qual- ity of services only if there is healthy competition on the market. Th erefore, a set of measures should be developed to attract more foreign investment, create a favourable investment climate and address other problems that impede the development of tourism in Kazakhstan. As the country is now going through major structural changes, the following types of diver- sifi cation in tourism seem to be the most prom- ising: business, transit, ethnic, educational, event, and academic tourism. Th e rising share of SMEs in tourism (hostels and private tourist agencies) will make it possible to increase the price and product range. Th e most signifi cant problems that need to be dealt with are the poorly developed transport and information infrastructure, the unstable banking sector and unaff ordable business loans, hamper- 13 Decree of the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan of 30 June 2017 No 406 Roadmap for Tourism Development in Kazakhstan until 2023. Retrieved from https://online.zakon. kz/Document/?doc_id=39370590 14 Web-Site of Business Portal Kapital.kz. Retrieved from https://kapital.kz/economic/71242/kakie-nishi-privlekatel- ny-dlya-investicij-v-turizm.html 15 Web-Site of Business Portal Kapital.kz. Retrieved from https://www.zakon.kz/4450912-turizm-v-kazakhstane-glaza- mi.html 16 Web-Site of Business Portal Kapital.kz. Retrieved from https://kursiv.kz/opinions/2018-07/turizm-kazakhstana-ito- gi-2016-perspektivy-2017-goda R-ECOMONY, 2018, 4(3), 82–87 doi: 10.15826/recon.2018.4.3.012 87 www.r-economy.ru Online ISSN 2412-0731 ing the development of private entrepreneurship, the lack of qualifi ed personnel in the sphere of hospitality, marketing and catering. With its cur- rent level of prices and services, Kazakhstan as a tourist destination is unable to compete with its international counterparts. Taking into account all these considerations, the main form of diversi- fi cation in Kazakhstan should be horizontal, that is, the search for new markets. Conclusion Our analysis leads us to the following conclu- sions: 1. Diversifi cation of tourism, that is, en- hancement of the diversity of markets, products and services within the industry, is an important process infl uenced by diff erent external factors. Tourist companies are heavily dependent on the available infrastructure, on natural, cultural and political conditions. 2. Only a very small share of inbound and outbound travellers in Kazakhstan are tourists; the majority are business travellers. Th e fact that Kazakhstan attracts few tourists can be explained by the poor quality of the existing transport in- frastructure, the poor quality of services and high prices, which means that the country’s tourism market is unstable and undeveloped and that its potential is largely underrealized. 3. Diversifi cation may spur the development of recreational, sport, cultural, ecological and re- ligious tourism. 4. To ensure sustainable economic develop- ment, Kazakhstan needs to reduce its dependence on the oil and gas sector, provide suffi cient sup- port for its banking sector and conduct eff ective structural reforms. 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Novosibirsk: Ministry of Educa- tion and Science of the Russian Federation, Novosibirsk State Technical University. (In Russ.) Information about the author Aksanat Zh. Panzabekova – PhD in Economic Sciences, Associate Professor, Deputy Director for Science of the Institute of Economics of the Committee of Science of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Kazakhstan (Almaty, Kazakhstan); e-mail: aksanat@mail.ru.