Journal of Renewable Energy and Sustainable Development (RESD) June 2015 - ISSN 2356-8569 224 RESD © 2015 http://apc.aast.edu Economical Feedback of Increasing Fuel Enrichment on Electricity Cost for VVER-1000 Dwiddar,M. S1., Badawi, A1. A., Abou-Gabal, H. H1. El-Osery, I. A.2, Badawy, M. R2, 1 Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University Alexandria, Egypt., 2Nuclear Power Plants Authority, Nasr City, Cairo, Egypt. Abstract - A methodology of evaluating the economics of the front-end nuclear fuel cycle with a price change sensitivity analysis for a VVER-1000 reactor core as a case study is presented. The effect of increasing the fuel enrichment and its corresponding reactor cycle length on the energy cost is investigated. The enrichment component was found to represent the highly expenses dynamic component affecting the economics of the front-end fuel cycle. Nevertheless, the increase of the fuel enrichment will increase the reactor cycle length, which will have a positive feedback on the electricity generation cost (cent/KWh). A long reactor operation time with a cheaper energy cost set the nuclear energy as a competitive alternative when compared with other energy sources. Keywords - Front end fuel cycle economics; electricity cost; VVER-1000. NOMENCLATURE – a: Conversion factor for uranium yellow cake (U3O8) AF: Availability Factor CL: Cycle length (days) Cfab: Cost of fabrication (M$) Cen: Cost of enrichment (M$) Cconv: Cost of conversion (M$) CYC: Cost of yellow cake (M$) CTotal: Front-end fuel cycle total cost(M$) Celec: Direct electricity generated cost (cent/kWh) ef: Fraction of U-235 in the uranium feed ep: Fraction of U-235 charged in the reactor et: Fraction of U-235 in the tails lC: Material losses of uranium conversion process lF: Material Losses in fabrication process Mcycle: Mass of uranium charged in the reactor Mf: Mass of uranium feed to the enrichment process Mp: Mass of uranium in the enriched stream Mt: Mass of uranium in the tails Mconv: Mass of uranium for conversion process MYC: Mass of yellow cake M$: Million Dollar P1: Monetary units per lb U3O8 for uranium purchase ($/lbU3O8) P2: Monetary units per Kg U for fuel conversion ($/kgU) P3: Monetary units per SWU for fuel enrichment ($/SWU) P4: Monetary units per Kg U for fuel fabrication ($/kgU) Qe: Electrical Power (MW) Qth: Thermal Power (MW) R: average rate of nuclear fuel burn-up (MWd/MTU) S: Separative work unit requirements (SWU) Vx: Value function - x subscript for f, p or t I. INTRODUCTION The economics of nuclear fuel cycle for nuclear power plants depends generally on two main issues, the nuclear fuel cycle components and the reactor core cycle length. The nuclear fuel cycle can be divided into three stages: front-end, at-reactor and back-end. These, in turn, can be sub-divided into more specific components [1].To identify the generating electricity costs from a typical nuclear power plant, the economics of fuel cycle must be clear. Actually, most countries study the economics and properties for the first two stages of nuclear fuel cycle; front-end and reactor operation time as there is no clear long term strategy made for the back-end part till now. Moreover the large dependency on storage of spent fuels in reactor site increases this foggy vision of the nuclear fuel cycle back-end strategy. Over the past decade the discharge irradiation level (burn-up) of both Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) and Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) fuels has increased steadily. This development is mainly attributable to the increased economic benefit that is associated with higher fuel burn-up. This benefit comes from the reduced throughput of fuel that results from higher burn-up [2]. In this paper, we calculate the generating electricity costs for PWR being the most prevalent reactor type in the world as it represents 274 of the world’s 436 reactors now operating [3]. The calculations are performed considering a typical VVER-1000 reactor [4] as a case study. http://apc.aast.edu/ Journal of Renewable Energy and Sustainable Development (RESD) June 2015 - ISSN 2356-8569 225 RESD © 2015 http://apc.aast.edu II. VVER-1000 GENERATING ELECTRICITY COST A. Front-end Fuel Cycle Cost The front-end component is composed of uranium purchase, conversion of yellow cake into uranium hexafluoride (UF6), enrichment (isotope separation process to rise the content of fissile materials, U235, in the fuel) and uranium oxide fuel fabrication into assemblies. Based on a direct cost analysis for the front-end fuel cycle components, the amount and price of each component can be defined [1]. Table 1 gives the magnitude of each front-end component unit price [5]. Most fuel contracts are made based on long term contracts not on spot prices so the front-end components unit prices are taken as average values for the past three years. Table 1. FRONT-END COMPONENTS UNIT PRICES (5) Component Price* Uranium purchase (P1) $45/lbU3O8 Conversion (P2) $8/KgU Enrichment (P3) $120/SWU** Fabrication (P4) $260/KgU * average prices over the past 3 years. ** SWU: Separative Work Unit Based on the VVER-1000 reactor core configuration and the plant design parameters [4], the amount of required fuel charged to the reactor each cycle can be calculated using (1) [6]. Mcycle = Qth∙ CL R (1) Within the context of Dwiddar, M.S., et al.’s previous work on the VVER-1000 reactor core and its improvements to achieve the new design of VVER- 1200reactor core, MCNP-X code was used to calculate the core cycle length and the burn up [7].The VVER-1000 validated model showed that for a 3000 MWth, the average value of fuel burn-up is 11800MWd/MTU and the core cycle length is 300 days [7]. Using (1) the amount of required fuel is 76.2 tons of uranium. The value of burn-up is assumed to be an average value for the whole core for one cycle length time. The reactor core consists of three batches and only one batch will be replaced each cycle. Therefore, the output of (1) will be divided by 3 as it will be 76.2/3 = 25.4 tons of uranium, which represents the amount of required fuel for each cycle length. Going backwards through the front-end components, this amount of uranium represents the output of fabrication stage. The mass of uranium, Mp, required for the fabrication is slightly more than the mass of UO2in the core, Mcycle, due to fabrication losses. To calculate the amount needed for the fabrication stage, the occurring losses must be considered. The loss factor of fabrication stage is 1.0% [1]. Thus applying (2) [1], a value of 25.65 tons is obtained for Mp. Mp = Mcycle ∙ (1 + lF) (2) Using (3) [1] the cost of this amount is calculated based on the price value in table 1, and is found to be equal to 6.669 M$. CFab = Mp ∙ P4 (3) Moving to the enrichment stage, to calculate the amount of uranium required for the enrichment process, both the enriched and depleted assays (ep & et) must be well known. The fuel enrichment batch charged for the VVER-1000 case study is 3.3% – which will be refueled to the reactor core each cycle – so the enriched assay output for the enrichment process is 3.3%. The depleted assay is assumed to be 0.25% which is the prevalent value for the enrichment process in Russia. According to (4) [1] the feed material for the enrichment process is calculated and a value of 169701.73 Kg U is obtained. Equation (5) [1] gives the amount of depleted uranium from this specific enrichment process and it is equal to 144051.73 Kg U. Mf = [ ep−et ef−et ] ∙ Mp (4) Mt = Mf − Mp (5) Since the price of enrichment services is expressed per separative work unit (SWU), the quantity of SWUs necessary to obtain the enriched uranium quantity (Mp) at the required enrichment level (3.3%) must be calculated. This quantity can be estimated depending on the 'value' of a mixture (V) which is http://apc.aast.edu/ Journal of Renewable Energy and Sustainable Development (RESD) June 2015 - ISSN 2356-8569 226 RESD © 2015 http://apc.aast.edu estimated on equation (6) as a function of the U235 content. Equation (7) [1] gives the SWU required for this specific enrichment process. According to (7), the separative work need for this process is equal to 113289 SWU. Vx = (2 ∙ ex − 1) ∙ ln [ ex 1−ex ] (6) S = Mp ∙ Vp + Mt ∙ Vt − Mf ∙ Vf (7) Thus, the cost of enrichment is calculated using (8) [1] and is found to be equal to 13.7M$. Cen = S ∙ P3 ∙ (1 + lF) (8) Moving to the conversion stage, the amount of uranium required is calculated using (9) [1]. This amount is equal to 170550.24Kg U considering the loss factor of conversion stage to be 0.5% [1]. According to the calculated uranium amount and using (10) [1] the cost of conversion process is calculated to be 1.364 M$. Mconv = Mf ∙ (1 + lC) (9) Cconv = Mconv ∙ P2 (10) Finally, the amount and cost of yellow cake to be purchased for starting the nuclear fuel cycle processes have to be calculated. Equations (11) and (12) [1] give the amount and the cost respectively. The amount of yellow cake is equal to 443430.63 lb and the cost is 19.95 M$. MYC = Mconv ∙ a (11) CYC = MYC ∙ P1 (12) Fig. 1 summarizes the actual annual front-end fuel cycle requirements for the VVER-1000 case study. The total front-end fuel cost is the sum of all its components cost. Equation (13) [1] gives the total cost which is equal to 41.69 M$. CTotal = CYC + Cconv + Cen + CFab (13) Fig .1. Annual VVER-1000 front-end fuel cycle requirements http://apc.aast.edu/ Journal of Renewable Energy and Sustainable Development (RESD) June 2015 - ISSN 2356-8569 227 RESD © 2015 http://apc.aast.edu From the calculated front-end fuel cycle total cost and considering a plant’s availability factor of 82%, (14) estimates the direct fuel cost for the unit electricity generation to be 0.7047 cent/kWh. This value represents the direct electricity generation cost according to the front-end fuel cycle economics. Celec = CTotal Qe ∙ CL ∙ AF ∙ 24 × 100 (Cent/$) 1000 (kWh/MWh) (14) B. Price Sensitivity Analysis A sensitivity analysis has been carried out with respect to the unit prices for the front-end fuel cycle components. The sensitivity range for front-end service prices generally reflects the upper and lower bound values seen from the extrapolation of component spot prices in international market [1]. The values used for the sensitivity analysis are shown in table 2. Table 2. SENSITIVITY RANGE FOR THE FRONT-END COMPONENT UNIT PRICES Component Price sensitivity range* Uranium purchase 22.5-90 $/lb U Conversion 3.75-15 $/Kg U Enrichment $60-240 $/SWU Fabrication 130-520 $/Kg U Fig. 2 gives the results of the front end fuel cycle components prices sensitivity analysis applied on the direct electricity cost. It is clear that although the uranium purchase is the highly significant component, enrichment cost is the most effective because it is the dynamic process that affects all other components. So it may be deduced that the enrichment cost forms a significant component of the front-end fuel cycle costs. Fig .2. Effect of front end fuel cycle components price change on electricity direct costs C. Effects of Increasing Enrichment and Core Cycle Length For increasing the reactor core cycle length, it is required to increase the fissile material content in the reactor core. This will affect the economics of fuel cycle components. From international practice, the maximum allowable enrichment for PWRs is 5%. For saving the design basis parameters for the VVER- 1000 case study, the minimum enrichment batch of VVER-1000 model is increased by a step of 0.1. The enrichments of the other batches are also increased keeping the same ratio of enrichment between the three batches as in the reference case. According to this assumption, the maximum enrichment calculated is 4.95 %. [7] Table 3 gives all probable improvements of fuel batches enrichment within the maximum allowable value with the corresponding reactor cycle length and core average burn up. The reactor cycle length and the core average burn up are out data from the MCNP-X code [7]. Table 3. CHANGES CONSIDERED IN THE ENRICHMENT OF THE FUEL BATCHES [7] Cases Enrichment of Fuel Batches Cycle length (days) Average burnup (MWd/ MTU) Batch 1 Batch 2 Batch3 A (Ref. Case) 2 3 3.3 300 11800 B 2.1 3.15 3.465 336 13213 C 2.2 3.3 3.63 372 14626 D 2.3 3.45 3.795 408 16039 E 2.4 3.6 3.96 444 17452 F 2.5 3.75 4.125 480 18865 G 2.6 3.9 4.29 516 20278 H 2.7 4.05 4.455 552 21691 I 2.8 4.2 4.62 588 23104 J 2.9 4.35 4.785 624 24517 K (Max. Enrich.) 3.0 4.5 4.95 660 25930 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1 1.2 variation from reference % C o s ts ( $ /k W h ) Uranium purchaseUranium purchase EnrichmentEnrichment FabricationFabrication ConversionConversion http://apc.aast.edu/ Journal of Renewable Energy and Sustainable Development (RESD) June 2015 - ISSN 2356-8569 228 RESD © 2015 http://apc.aast.edu According to the output data given in table 3, Fig. 3 shows that the fuel burn-up is directly proportional to the core cycle length. Fig .3. Relation between core cycle length and fuel burn-up Similarly to case A already considered in section A, (1) to (14) were used to calculate the front end fuel cycle economics and its effect on the electricity generation cost for the other cases. Calculating the fuel mass required each cycle for the different cases results in a constant value as shown in Fig. 4. This can be explained by the proportionality relation obtained between the core cycle length and the fuel burn-up. As (2) and (3) do not depend on the enrichment percentage, this constant value of fuel mass required each cycle will be reflected in a constant value for both the required mass for the fabrication stage and its cost, namely 25.65 tons and 6.669 M$ respectively. Fig .4 Fuel mass required each cycle for the different cases in table 3 However as fuel enrichment increases, the feed material will increase. Consequently the enrichment cost will increase due to the need for more separative work units as seen in Fig. 5. Fig. 6 shows that the cost of enrichment process is directly proportional to the mass of uranium feed. Fig .5 Amount of required SWU for different fuel enrichments Fig .6 Enrichment process cost versus the mass of uranium feed The increase in the uranium feed to the enrichment process leads to the need for more uranium for both the conversion and the uranium purchase components resulting in an increase in their costs as illustrated in Figs. 7 and 8. Fig .7 Conversion costs versus the mass of uranium 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 22000 24000 26000 28000 Reactor core cycle length (days) A v e ra g e c o re b u rn -u p ( M W d /M T U ) 300 330 360 390 420 450 480 510 540 570 600 630 660 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Cycle Length (Days) F u e l M a s s ( T o n e s ) 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 4 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5 120000 135000 150000 165000 180000 195000 210000 Enrichment S W U 160000 182000 204000 226000 248000 270000 1.200x10 7 1.400x10 7 1.600x10 7 1.800x10 7 2.000x10 7 2.200x10 7 2.400x10 7 2.600x10 7 Mass of uranium feed (Kg) E n ri c h m e n t C o s ts ( $ /k W h ) 170000 190000 210000 230000 250000 270000 1.300x10 6 1.400x10 6 1.500x10 6 1.600x10 6 1.700x10 6 1.800x10 6 1.900x10 6 2.000x10 6 2.100x10 6 2.200x10 6 Uranium mass (Kg) C o n v e rs io n C o s ts ( $ ) http://apc.aast.edu/ Journal of Renewable Energy and Sustainable Development (RESD) June 2015 - ISSN 2356-8569 229 RESD © 2015 http://apc.aast.edu Fig .8 Uranium purchase costs versus the mass of uranium As a consequence of the increase in the costs of the uranium enrichment, the conversion and the uranium purchase components, the total cost of the front end fuel cycle will increase. But since the increase in the uranium enrichment will lead to longer reactor core cycle length due to the higher fuel burn-up, the resulting electricity cost decreases as shown in Fig. 9. Fig .9 Direct electricity cost versus total front-end cost III. CONCLUSION The effect of increasing the nuclear fuel enrichment on the electricity cost has been considered. A typical VVER-1000 reactor has been selected as the case study. The fuel enrichment has been increased up to 5% which is the maximum allowable value for PWRs. Excluding the fabrication component, increasing fuel enrichment was found to increase the uranium masses needed for all the front-end components and consequently their costs. A sensitivity analysis was performed with respect to the unit prices for the front-end fuel cycle components and their effects on the electricity direct cost. It was noticed that although the uranium purchase is the most effective component, the uranium enrichment still has the highly priority effect due to its dynamic properties and its consequences on the other front- end fuel cycle components. Although increasing the fuel enrichment resulted in a higher total cost of the front end fuel cycle, it was found to extend the reactor core cycle allowing the reactor to operate for more than 12 months. This fact results in a decrease in the electricity generation cost. Therefore, increasing the nuclear fuel enrichment within the limit allowable internationally for the PWRs will have a positive economic feedback leading to a cheaper electricity cost. This makes the nuclear energy a strong competitor to the other energy sources REFERENCES [1] Nuclear Energy Agency, The economical on nuclear fuel cycle (1994) , Organization for economic co-operation and development, Paris, France. [2] Christopher S. (June 1998) Economic and Fuel Performance Analysis of Extended Operating Cycles in Existing Light Water Reactors (LWRs), Handwork, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, [3] PRIS, IAEA,( August 2014) Power Reactor Information System. www.iaea.org/PRIS/WorldStatistics/Operational ReactorByTupe.aspx [4] IAEA, (November 1995) In-core fuel management code package validation for WWERs. IAEA-TECDOC-847. [5] The Ux Consulting Company (August 2014). www.uxc.com/review/UxCProces.aspx [6] Cacuci, D. G. (2010) Handbook of Nuclear Engineering, Institute for Nuclear Technology and Reactor Safety. KarlsruherInstitut fur Technologie, Germany. [7] Dwiddar, M. S. (May 2014) From VVER-1000 to VVER-1200: investigation of the effect of the changes in core. The third international conference on physics and technology of reactors and applications, Tetuan, Morocco. 400000 450000 500000 550000 600000 650000 700000 1.800x10 7 2.000x10 7 2.200x10 7 2.400x10 7 2.600x10 7 2.800x10 7 3.000x10 7 3.200x10 7 Yellow cake mass (Ib) U ra n iu m p u rc h a s e C o s ts 4.100x107 4.600x107 5.100x107 5.600x107 6.100x107 6.600x107 0.48 0.5 0.52 0.54 0.56 0.58 0.6 0.62 0.64 0.66 0.68 0.7 0.72 Front-end fuel cycle total costs ($) E le c tr ic it y p ri c e ( c e n t/ k W h ) http://apc.aast.edu/ http://www.iaea.org/PRIS/WorldStatistics/Operational%20ReactorByTupe.aspx http://www.iaea.org/PRIS/WorldStatistics/Operational%20ReactorByTupe.aspx http://www.uxc.com/review/UxCProces.aspx